Demographics of Bulgaria

Demographics of Bulgaria
The demography of the Republic of Bulgaria is monitored by the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria. Demographic features of the population of Bulgaria include population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations and others.
Bulgaria has a high Human Development Index of 0.813, ranking 51st in the world in 2018 and holds the 38th position in Newsweeks rankings of the world's best countries to live in, measuring health, education, political environment and economic dynamism.
Demographic history
Various estimates have put Bulgaria's medieval population at 1.1 million in 700 AD and 2.6 million in 1365. At the 2011 census, the population inhabiting Bulgaria was 7,364,570 in total, but the 2021 Census calculated that the population had declined to 6.5 million. The peak was in 1989, the year when the borders opened after a half of a century of communist regime, when the population numbered 9,009,018.
Note: Crude migration change (per 1000) is an extrapolation
Vital statistics
Vital Statistics 1875 to 1915
The total fertility rate is the number of children born per woman. It is based on fairly good data for the entire period. Sources: Our World in Data and Gapminder Foundation.
Vital statistics 1900–1915
Vital statistics 1916–1940
Vital statistics 1941 to present
Source: National Statistical Institute
Current vital statistics
Birth rates and fertility
Historical birth and fertility rates
The first reliable data about fertility and natural interest rates in the Bulgarian lands date back to the mid-1800s.
According to Turkish statistician Kemal Karpat, Non-Muslims, Bulgarians included, in the Ottoman Empire received a remarkable boost in fertility in the early 1830s. Their average growth rate climbed up to 2% per year, compared to zero among Muslims, who suffered from demograhic stagnation.
The same trend continued well after Bulgaria's Liberation from Ottoman rule in 1878. Until the early 1890s, Muslim birth rates in Bulgaria hesitated in the low 20s, dwarved by rates of + 40‰ among Orthodox Christians, while natural increase rates hovered around zero. The ongoing Muslim demographic crisis and the heavy migration to Turkey were the two primary reasons for the rapid decrease in Bulgaria's Muslim and Turkish population between 1880 and 1910, from 28.7% in 1880 to 13.8% in 1910 for Muslims and from 26.2% to 10.7% for Turks.
Muslim birth and natural increase rates started climbing slowly from the late 1890s but only surpassed Orthodox ones in 1924. Nevertheless, it was not the Eastern Orthodox but rather Bulgaria's Roman Catholics that had the highest birth rate during the period, though usually offset by very high mortality rates.
Average Number of Births & Deaths, Average Birth Rate, Death Rate and Rate of Natural Increase in the Principality of Bulgaria by Period and Confession
In the 1930s and 1940s, ethnic Bulgarians completed stage 2 of their demographic transition, and crude birth rate among them fell to a mere 23.3‰ by 1946, or twice as low as the birth rate of Bulgaria's two largest minorities, Turks (40.9‰) and Roma (47.2‰). At the same time, due to higher mortality, the rate of natural increase among Bulgarian Turks was almost identical to that among ethnic Bulgarians (12.1‰ vs. 11.1‰), while the rate among the Romani was twice as high (23.1‰).
Present-day
A total of 64,984 live births were recorded in Bulgaria in 2016, giving the country a crude birth rate of 9.1‰.
Bulgaria has a low total fertility rate of 1.58 children per woman (according to the 2021 Census). This is up significantly from the late 1990s, but still below replacement and not enough to prevent further population decline, especially with emigration. Provinces with large Roma populations (for example Sliven, Montana and Yambol) tend to have higher fertility rates (and higher death rates) compared to other areas, whereas Turkish fertility is similar to the Bulgarian majority. The average number of (live births) children in 2021 was 1.47 for all women (aged 12 or more), ranging from 0.04 children for women between the ages of 12-19 to 1.92 children per women between the ages of 70-79. The distribution by ethnicity shows that only among women who identify themselves as belonging to the Roma ethnic group, the average number of children is sufficient for simple reproduction - 2.25 children, mainly because of the significantly younger age structure and low educational level of this group, followed by the Turkish ethnic group with 1.79 children and 1.41 children for women who self-identified as belonging to the Bulgarian ethnic. The distribution of the average number of live births by religion changes from 1.83 children for Muslim women and 1.82 children for Protestant women, followed by 'other Christian' (1.63), Eastern Orthodox (1.43), Catholic (1.36), Jewish (1.27) and Armenian Apostolic (1.26). Women without religion had an average number of 1.40 children.
Regional differences
As of 2022, the municipality of Tvarditsa has the highest crude birth rate in the country, at 18.4‰, followed by the municipalities of Yablanitsa (17.9‰) and Nikolaevo Municipality (17.2‰). All these municipalities have relatively large Romani populations.
On the other hand, the municipalities of Georgi Damyanovo, Banite and Nevestino have incredibly low birth rates. These municipalities are almost exclusively inhabited by ethnic Bulgarians.
Teenage pregnancy
Bulgaria has one of the highest share of teenage pregnancy in Europe. Nevertheless, this number declined rapidly between 1995 and 2010, until it stabilized at around 10%.
The ten municipalities with the largest absolute number of teenage mothers for 2022 are: Sliven (371), Sofia (345), Plovdiv (196), Pazardzhik (130), Yambol (123), Nova Zagora (121), Burgas (108), Pleven (110), Tvarditsa (98), Stara Zagora, Varna (83) and Haskovo (81).
Life expectancy at birth
Total population: 74.83 years
Male: 71.37 years
Female: 78.39 years (2016-2018 est.)
Average life expectancy at age 0 of the total population.
Kardzhali Province and Sofia City have the highest life expectancy with 76.6 years for both sexes. The lowest life expectancy is recorded in the Northwestern provinces like Montana (72.7 years), Vratsa (72.8 years) and Vidin (72.9 years).
Infant mortality rate
Total: 5.8 deaths/1,000 live births (2018)
Male: 6.2 deaths/1,000 live births (2018)
Female: 5.3 deaths/1,000 live births (2018)
Projections
The following forecast for the future population is an official estimate of the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria.
Demographic statistics
Demographic statistics according to the World Population Review.
One birth every 8 minutes
One death every 5 minutes
One net migrant every 111 minutes
Net loss of one person every 11 minutes
Demographic statistics according to the CIA World Factbook, unless otherwise indicated.
Population
6,519,789 (Sept 2021 cens)
6,919,180 (July 2021 est.)
7,057,504 (July 2018 est.)
Ethnic groups
Bulgarian 76.9%, Turkish/Balkan Gagauz 8%, Romani 4.4%, other 0.7% (including Russian, Armenian, and Vlach), other (unknown) 10% (2011 est.)
note: Romani populations are usually underestimated in official statistics and may represent 9–11% of Bulgaria's population
Languages
Bulgarian (official) 76.8%, Balkan Gagauz 8.2%, Romani 3.8%, other 0.7%, unspecified 10.5% (2011 est.)
Religions
Eastern Orthodox 59.4%, Muslim 7.8%, other (including Catholic, Protestant, Armenian Apostolic Orthodox, and Jewish) 1.7%, none 3.7%, unspecified 27.4% (2011 est.)
Age structure
0-14 years: 14.52% (male 520,190 /female 491,506)
15-24 years: 9,4% (male 340,306 /female 312,241
25-54 years:42.87% (male 1,538,593 /female 1,448,080)
55-64: 13.15% (male 433,943 /female 482,784)
65 years and over: 20.06% (male 562,513 /female 835,065) (2020 est.)
0-14 years: 14.6% (male 530,219 /female 500,398)
15-24 years: 9.43% (male 346,588 /female 318,645)
25-54 years: 43.12% (male 1,565,770 /female 1,477,719)
55-64 years: 13.3% (male 442,083 /female 496,888)
65 years and over: 19.54% (male 557,237 /female 821,957) (2018 est.)
Median age
total: 43.7 years. Country comparison to the world: 20
male: 41.9 years
female: 45.6 years (2020 est.)
total: 43 years. Country comparison to the world: 22nd
male: 41.2 years
female: 44.9 years (2018 est.)
Birth rate
8.15 births/1,000 population (2021 est.) Country comparison to the world: 218th
8.5 births/1,000 population (2018 est.) Country comparison to the world: 215th
Death rate
14.52 deaths/1,000 population (2021 est.) Country comparison to the world: 3th
14.5 deaths/1,000 population (2018 est.) Country comparison to the world: 4th
Total fertility rate
1.49 children born/woman (2021 est.) Country comparison to the world:204th
1.47 children born/woman (2018 est.) Country comparison to the world: 201st
Net migration rate
-0.29 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2021 est.) Country compy to the world:115
Population growth rate
-0.67% (2021 est.) Country comparison to the world: 229th
Mother's mean age at first birth
27.1 years (2017 est.)
Dependency ratios
total dependency ratio: 56.6 (2020 est.)
youth dependency ratio: 23 (2020 est.)
elderly dependency ratio: 33.6 (2020 est.)
potential support ratio: 3 (2020 est.)
Urbanization
urban population: 75.7% of total population (2020)
.rate of urbanization: -0.22% annual rate of change (2015-20 est.)
potential support ratio: 3.3 (2015 est.)
Life expectancy at birth
total population: 75.3 years. Country comparison to the world: 122th
male: 72.08 years
female: 78.73 years (2021 est.)
Literacy
definition: age 15 and over can read and write (2015 est.)
total population: 98.4%
male: 98.7%
female: 98.1% (2015 est.)
School life expectancy (primary to tertiary education)
total: 14 years
male: 14 years
female: 14 years (2016)
Unemployment, youth ages 15–24
total: 12.7%. Country comparison to the world: 108th
male: 13.2%
female: 13.9% (2018 est.)
Sex ratio
Of the total 7,364,570 as of 2011, 3,586,571 are males and 3,777,999 are females, or there are 1,053 women for every 1,000 men.
Demographic policies
The progressive decrease of the Bulgarian population is hindering economic growth and welfare improvement, and the management measures taken to mitigate the negative consequences do not address the essence of the problem. The Government Program for the period 2017 - 2021 is the first one that aims at overturning the trend. The program also identifies the priority means for achieving this goal: measures to increase the birth rate, reduce youth emigration, and build up regulatory and institutional capacity to implement a modern immigration policy tailored to the needs of the Bulgarian business.L. Ivanov. Measures to solve demographic problems. Business Club Magazine. Issue 11, 2017. pp. 18-20. (in Bulgarian and English)
Ethnic groups
The following table shows the ethnic composition of all Provinces of Bulgaria according to the 2021 census:
Languages
The 2001 census defines an ethnic group as a "community of people, related to each other by origin and language, and close to each other by mode of life and culture"; and one's mother tongue as "the language a person speaks best and usually uses for communication in the family (household)".
According to the 2011 census, among the Bulgarians 99.4% indicate Bulgarian as a mother tongue, 0.3% - Turkish/Balkan gagauz, 0.1% - Roma and 0.1% others; among Turks 96.6% have pointed the Turkish/Balkan Gagauz as a mother tongue and 3.2% - Bulgarian; among the Roma 85% indicate Roma language as a mother tongue, 7.5% - Bulgarian, 6.7% - Turkish/Balkan gagauz and 0.6% - Romanian.
Religion
Bulgaria's traditional religion according to the constitution is the Orthodox Christianity, while Bulgaria is a secular state too. Since the last two censuses (2001 and 2011) provide widely divergent results, they are both shown in the table below. It is noteworthy that over a fifth of the population chose not to respond to this question in the 2011 census.
{| style="border="0"
|-
| style="width:120px;"|
| style="width:100px;"|
| style="width:250px;"|
|-
|
| 2001| 2011'''
|-
| Orthodox Christian
| 82.6%
| 59.4%
|-
| Muslim
| 12.2%
| 7.8% (7.4% Sunni; 0.4% Shia)|-
| Catholic
| 0.6%
| 0.7%
|-
| Protestant
| 0.5%
| 0.9%
|-
| Other| 0.2%
| 0.15%
|-
| None| 3.9%
| 9.3%
|-
| No response| -
| 21.8%''
|}
The results of the Bulgarian 2011 Census, in which the indication of answer regarding the question for confession was optional, are as follows:
The results of the Bulgarian 2001 Census by ethnic groups, the latest census in which the indication of identification (whether by confession or as irreligious) in the question for confession was obligatory, are as follows:
Migration
Historical migration
The first censuses of the Principality of Bulgaria and the autonomous province of Eastern Rumelia in 1880 recorded 31,786 and 17,970 Bulgarian refugees from Macedonia and Ottoman Thrace, respectively, who accounted for 1.38% of the population of the Principality an 2.20% of the population of the autonomous province, respectively. The census of the Principality also counted a total of 37,635 people, or 1.88% of the population, born in a country other than the Ottoman Empire, mostly Bulgarians from Romania, Northern Dobruja and Bessarabia. By 1887, when the first joint census of the Principality and the autonomous province was conducted following their peaceful unification in 1885, the number of the refugees from the Ottoman Empire had grown to 54,462 people, or 1.73% of the population, while the rest of the foreign-born population had fallen to 31,637 people, 9,831 of whom born in the Russian Empire, 11,843 in Romania, 2,690 in Serbia and 7,273 elsewhere.
According to the 1910 census, 300,000 or almost 10% of the ethnic Bulgarians were born in another Bulgarian municipality than the one they were enumerated in. The same data shows that the foreign-born ethnic Bulgarians numbered 78,000, or 2% of them, most numerous of whom were the 61,000 Ottoman-born, 9,000 Romanian-born and by less than 2,000 Austro-Hungarian, Serbian and Russian-born. By the 1926 census, there had been 253,000 refugees with granted households and land or citizenship but with many more in towns of uncertain number. 35% came from Eastern Thrace, 30% came from Greek Macedonia, another 18% from Western Thrace, 8% from Dobruja, 4% from the Western Outlands, 3% from Asia Minor, and 2% from North Macedonia. They constituted 6% of the country's population. In 1940, 70,000 Bulgarians were exchanged from Northern Dobruja. The total number of refugees in 1878-1940 is estimated at between 700,000 and 1,200,000.
Current migration
According to the 2011 census Russian citizens are the most numerous foreigners - 11 991, followed by 8 444 EU citizens (UK- 2 605, Greece - 1 253, Germany- 848, Poland - 819 and Italy - 456), citizens of Ukraine - 3 064, North Macedonia - 1 091, Moldova - 893 and Serbia - 569. 22.8% of them are from Asia, mostly from Turkey. Those with dual Bulgarian and other citizenship were 22 152, or 0.3% of the population. Of them persons with Bulgarian and Russian citizenship were 5 257 (23.7%), followed by persons with Bulgarian and Turkish citizenship - 4 282 (19.3%), Bulgarian and citizenship of the USA- 1 725 (7.8%). There are at least 17,527 Refugees of the Syrian Civil War with applications in Bulgaria. In 2001-2015 185,447 people applied for Bulgarian citizenship and 116,222 were provided with. 113,647 were granted on grounds of proven Bulgarian ancestry, including 59,968 North Macedonia citizens. 29,218 were Moldovan citizens, 5930 Ukrainians, 5374 Serbians, 5194 Russians, 3840 Israeli, 2192 Albanians, 692 Turks and others. In 2016, 12,880 foreigners were naturalized, including 6196 Macedonians.
Population by country of birth:
Foreigners by nationality:
Age structure
0–14 years: 13.2%
15–65 years: 68.3%
65 years and over: 18.5% (Census 2011)
At the 2011 census, the largest cohort of those self-identified as Romani was the 0–9 years cohort, which accounted for 20.8% of all Romani. The same age cohort accounted for 10.2% of the Turks and 7.2% of the Bulgarians. At the 2021 census, the 0–9 years cohort amongst the Romani was second largest after the 10–19 years one and represented 17.0% of all Romani. The corresponding percentages for ethnic Bulgarians and ethnic Turks stood at 7.7% and 8.8%, respectively.
Bulgarian children constitute the majority of all children in 23 out of 28 provinces. They constitute more than ninety percent of all children in two provinces: Sofia (city) (92%) and Pernik Province (90%).
Turkish children constitute the majority in Kardzhali Province (68% of self-declared) and Razgrad Province (50% of self-declared); they also constitute the largest group of all children in Silistra Province (43%).
Roma children constitute 12% of all children in Bulgaria and more than a quarter in three provinces: Montana (29%), Sliven (28%) and Yambol (27%).
Bulgaria is ageing rapidly, especially in some remote rural areas.
The ageing of the population leads to an increase of the median age. The median age is 43.6 as of 2017, up from 40.4 years in 2001.
Education
Over 98% of the population is literate, the males being more literate than the females.
According to the 2011 census, about 112,778 people aged nine or more are illiterate. There are considerable differences in the share of illiterate persons amongst the three main ethnic groups. Amongst the Bulgarian ethnic group the share of illiterate is 0.5%, amongst the Turkish - 4.7% and amongst the Roma ethnic group - 11.8%. About 81 thousand people aged seven or more never visited school.
Unemployment
The median unemployment for the country in 2011 was 10.1%.
The number of unemployed people declined to 207 thousand people (or around 6.2% of the population) in 2017.
Most unemployed people are aged 15 to 24 years old.
The unemployment rate in rural areas (around 10.0%) is nearly two times higher than the unemployment rate in urban areas (approximately 5.1%).
Vidin Province has the highest unemployment rate with almost one fifth of its labour force being unemployed. The provinces of Shumen (15.9%), Silistra (12.5%) and Targovishte (12.4%) have also very high unemployment rates.
Other statistics
Home ownership
According to Eurostat, 82.3% per cent of the population live in privately owned and owner-occupied homes, ranking it as 12th highest in ownership globally. It is down from a recent peak of 87.6% in 2008, and has been steadily falling since.
Internet penetration
The number of Internet users has increased rapidly since 2000—from 430,000 their number grew to 1.55 million in 2004, and 3.4 million (48 per cent penetration rate) in 2010. Bulgaria has the third-fastest average Broadband Internet speed in the world after South Korea and Romania with an average speed of 1,611 kbit/s.
Mobile phone adoption
Currently there are three active mobile phone operators—Mtel, Telenor and Vivacom, Mtel is the largest one with 5.2 million users as of 2010, Telenor has 3,9 million as of 2007 and Vivacom over 1 million.
HIV
Bulgaria's HIV rate is among the lowest in the world, being 0.1% or 3,800 infected as of 2009.
Urbanization
Most Bulgarians (72.5 per cent) reside in urban areas. Approximately one-sixth of them live in Sofia, which has a population exceeding 1,200,000 people.
Urban population: 5,338,261 or 72.5% of total population (Census 2011)
Rural: 2,026,309 or 27.5%
Rate of urbanization: -0.3% annual rate of change (2005–10 est.)
See also
Immigration to Bulgaria
Immigration to Europe
List of countries by immigrant population
Bulgaria
Ageing of Europe
Notes
References
External links
2005 Report on European Demography, Eurostat
Annual report of the National Statistics Institute for 2005 regarding population and demographic processes
Urbanization,1910-1946
Bulgarian Subject Files – Social Issues: Minorities, Blinken Open Society Archives, Budapest
Bulgarians – Species on the Brink
Society of Bulgaria