Demographics of Poland

Demographics of Poland
The demographics of Poland constitute all demographic features of the population of Poland including population density, ethnicity, education level, the health of the populace, economic status, religious affiliations, and other aspects of the population.
According to the 2021 census by the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS), as of March 31, 2021, Poland had an official population of 38,036,118, a decrease of 0.9% since the 2011 census, and a usually resident population of 37,019,327, a 2.7% decrease since the 2011 census. The difference between official and usually resident population comes from two different methodologies used by GUS for population counts. In addition, Poland is home to a large number of foreigners, most of whom are not counted towards the official population of the country. As of the 2021 census, there were 1,433,779 of them in Poland.
Poland's population has been growing quickly after World War II, during which the country lost millions of citizens. Population passed 38 million in the late 1980s and has since then stagnated within the 38.0-38.6 million range until the 2020s where the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the baby boom generation starting to die out and a baby boost started to overlap.
59.8% of the Polish population lives in urban areas, a number which is continuously declining due to suburbanization. In 2018, the average life expectancy was 77.9 years; 74.1 for men and 82 for women. Population distribution is uneven, with densely populated south, moderately populated center and south-east and scarcely populated north.
Ethnically, Poland used to be one of the most multi-ethnic countries in Europe before World War II. It hosted the largest Jewish community in Europe, with Warsaw being the largest concentration of Jews in the world besides New York City. In the eastern parts of the country, Ukrainians and Belarusians often outnumbered Poles, while in the west there were large German communities. After the war, Poland became an ethnically homogeneous country. However, in the last decade Poland witnessed a mass-scale migration to the country, mostly from the neighboring Ukraine and Belarus and increasingly from Central and Southern Asia.
In connection with the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, as part of the Russian-Ukrainian war, by 2 August 2022, more than 10.4 million Ukrainian refugees left the territory of Ukraine, moving to the countries closest to the west of Ukraine, of which more than 5.1 million people fled to neighboring Poland initially. As of September 2023, 958,120 Ukrainian refugees continue to reside in Poland. They are also not counted towards official or usually resident population.
History
For many centuries, until the end of World War II in 1945, the population of Poland included many significant ethnic minorities.
1945-1989
The population of Poland decreased from more than 35 million in 1939 to less than 24 million in 1946. Of that, around 6 million were killed during the Holocaust, Porajmos, and German and Soviet occupations, while the remaining decline can be mostly attributed to altered borders and associated population expulsions of Germans and Ukrainians and resettlement of Poles. As a result, Poland became one of the most ethnically homogeneous areas in Europe.
Poland's population has been rising consistently in the 1945-1989 period, to 37.96 million in 1989. This growth has been fully fueled by positive natural change (more births than deaths), as net international migration was negative for Poland every year between 1966 and 1989, even despite the socialist government's restrictions on leaving the country for any reason. 578,405 people emigrated from Poland between 1966 and 1989, with the main destination countries being Germany (388,137) and United States (50,453).
1990-now
Since 1990, Poland's population stagnated at 38.0-38.6 million, with the median age rising due to low birth rates. Official population statistics are a point of debate in Poland, though, with many academics criticizing the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS) for failing to adapt to successfully capture internal and international migration in particular. Already the 2002 census revealed Poland had 402,000 residents less than expected, and subsequent censuses reflected neither the mass emigration of Poles after Poland's admission to the European Union in 2004, nor the mass immigration to Poland since 2014.
Population
Demographic statistics according to the World Population Review in 2019.
One birth every 2 minutes
One death every 1 minutes
Net loss of one person every 7 minutes
One net migrant every 53 minutes
Fertility
The total fertility rate is the number of children born per woman. It is based on fairly good data for the entire period. Sources: Our World In Data and Gapminder Foundation.
Birth rate
9.3 births/1,000 population (2018 est.) Country comparison to the world: 202nd
Total fertility rate
1.36 children born/woman (2018 est.) Country comparison to the world: 214th
Mother's mean age at first birth
27.4 years (2014 est.)
Life expectancy
Source: UN World Population Prospects
Age structure
0-14 years: 14.8% (male 2,924,077 /female 2,762,634)
15-24 years: 10.34% (male 2,040,043 /female 1,932,009)
25-54 years: 43.44% (male 8,431,045 /female 8,260,124)
55-64 years: 13.95% (male 2,538,566 /female 2,819,544)
65 years and over: 17.47% (male 2,663,364 /female 4,049,281) (2018 est.)
Median age
total: 41.1 years. Country comparison to the world: 44th
male: 39.4 years
female: 42.8 years (2018 est.)
Vital statistics
Vital statistics from 1921 to 1938
After World War II
Current vital statistics
Structure of the population
Employment and income
As of June 2023, there were 16,228,195 people in employment in Poland. Men were 51.5% of the workforce while women were 48.5%. Employment has been steadily rising in Poland - growing by exactly 0.5 million since June 2018.
Unemployment, youth ages 15–24
total: 17.7%. Country comparison to the world: 74th
male: 17.4% female: 18% (2016 est.)
Population density and distribution
With an estimated usually resident population of 37 million, Poland is the 5th most-populous country in the European Union and 7th or 8th most-populous one in Europe (depending on how many people live in Ukraine, to which there are various estimates).
Depending on whether one uses the official population or usually resident population as a base, population density of Poland was 122 or 118.7 people per square kilometer (315.9 or 307.4 people per square mile) as of the 2021 census.
Population distribution is unequal. The south, particularly the area along the A4 highway between Gliwice and Rzeszów, is densely populated with over 250 people per square kilometer, while population density drops below 50 people per square kilometer in much of the north of the country. Silesian voivodeship is the densest, at over 350 people per square kilometer.
Urban areas
Poland is relatively rural for a country of its population and economic development. As of the 2021 census, 59.8% of total population lived in cities and town, a percentage well below European average. Poland has historically been a rural and agricultural country and while cities started rapidly growing in neighboring countries in the second half of the 19th century, many Polish cities were artificially limited in growth by the partitioners due to military reasons. After regaining independence in 1918, Polish authorities have started investment in urbanizing the country but it was quickly interrupted by World War II. Therefore, Poland has not started fully urbanizing until after the war.
Urbanization rate has also been declining, at an annual rate of -0.25% between 2015 and 2020 due to suburbanization. In Poland, many suburbs are officially rural areas even despite in reality might resemble a town or even a city neighborhood, such as the Poznań suburb of Koziegłowy.
In the Eurostat's urban-rural typology, Poland's urbanization rate is slightly higher, however still below the European average. Eurostat estimates 61.2% of Poland's population to live in urban clusters (including 28.9% in dense urban centers), compared to the 70.4% average across the EU.
Metropolitan areas
There is no one official delimitation of metropolitan areas in Poland, and various institutions use different definitions. However, both central institutions and academics are in agreement that the following are the major metropolitan areas of Poland:
Warsaw - the capital and largest city of Poland, with 1.9 million official residents in city proper and 2.7-3.1 million in the metropolitan area. Warsaw is the largest economy in Poland, with the Warsaw Stock Exchange, most major financial institutions, and CEE headquarters of international companies. Warsaw is also an important educational center, with the University of Warsaw, Warsaw School of Economics and Polish Academy of Sciences located there. Warsaw metropolitan area has been growing rapidly in recent decades, eclipsing the previously larger Katowice metropolitan area around 2015.
Katowice - the center of the large Upper Silesian Metropolitan Area, with 2.2-2.7 million in the metropolitan area. Katowice area developed initially as a hub of heavy industry and coal mining. Most of the industry has been closed since. Katowice and some other cities (Gliwice, Tychy) managed to successfully transform its economies becoming a major Polish hubs of information technology, healthcare, education, finance and manufacturing, however many other cities (Bytom, Sosnowiec) experience depopulation. Katowice's metropolitan area is bordering Kraków, Rybnik, Bielsko-Biała and Ostrava metropolitan areas from the south and southeast, creating a large combined urban area with 4.5-5.2 million people.
Kraków - the historical capital of Poland, with 0.8 million residents in city proper and 1.2 million in the metropolitan area. Kraków is one of the main tourist destinations in Poland and a is often called a cultural capital of the country. In recent decades, Kraków emerged as a major international center of back office operations through the SSC/BPO industry. Kraków is also the second largest college city in Poland after Warsaw, with the Jagiellonian University dating back to the Middle Ages.
Łódź - a post-industrial city in the middle of Poland, with 0.7 million people in the city proper and 1-1.2 million in the urban area. Łódź has developed in the 19th century as a center for textile manufacturing, and has been a major manufacturing hub exporting mostly towards Russia and then Soviet Union. Following the market transformations in the early 1990s, most of the industry has collapsed and Łódź struggled with high unemployment rate. In recent years, the city has embraced its industrial past and exploits its location close to Warsaw.
Gdańsk - one of the three major cities of the Tricity area, Gdańsk has around 0.5 million people in the city proper and 1-1.2 million in the urban area. Gdańsk has been the largest cities in Poland for most of the Middle Ages, thanks to its seaside location that fostered trade with other cities and countries in the Baltic and North Seas. Being the largest urban area in the north of the country, Gdańsk benefits from internal migration from neighboring regions.
Poznań - with its 0.5 million residents in city proper and 0.8-1.1 million in the metropolitan area, Poznań emerged as one of the main hubs of trade and manufacturing in Poland. Poznań area is the most entrepreneurial part of Poland, with more than 1 in 10 residents running a business. Poznań is also the prime example of suburbanization in Poland, with the suburbs around as populous as the city proper.
Wrocław - in recent years emerged a major immigration center, with more than 100,000 immigrants residing in the city in addition to its official population of 0.7 million and 0.9-1.1 million in the metropolitan area. Similarly to Kraków, Wrocław is a major tourist destination thanks to its medieval old town, as well as a hub of back office operations particularly in the financial industry.
Szczecin - with a population of 0.4 million in the city proper and 0.7-0.9 million in the metropolitan area (partially stretching to Germany), Szczecin is the second-largest city in the country's north and a major port.
Regions
Poland is divided into 16 administrative divisions called voivodeship (województwa). These regions vary vastly in size, as the largest Masovian voivodeship is more than 5 times as populous and 3 times as big as the smallest Opole voivodeship.
Immigration and foreign nationals
Historically an emigrant country, Poland has seen an uptick in immigration only after 2014, when the growing economy started attracting foreign workforce, particularly from neighboring Ukraine whose economy has been affected by the 2014 war. Poland's official statistics regarding immigration are scattered and incomplete, and the complicated immigration system with many different routes to immigrate makes assessing true size of immigration to Poland challenging.
Census data
Główny Urząd Statystyczny (GUS), the Polish central statistics office, published multiple separate counts of foreign nationals living in Poland for the 2021 census. GUS counted 445,176 foreign nationals towards Poland's usually resident population (1.2% share) and 111,814 foreign nationals towards Poland's official population (0.3% share). It also counted 1,433,779 foreign nationals as temporarily living in Poland (of whom 309,309 lived in Poland for more than 12 months). It is unclear what is the overlap of these populations.
Work-based migration
Most foreigners from outside of the European Union immigrate to Poland via various kinds of work schemes. There are two primary types are a work permit (zezwolenie na pracę) and a "declaration of entrusting work to a foreigner" (oświadczenie o powierzeniu wykonywania pracy cudzoziemcowi).
Work permits
Work permits can be issued to any foreigner from outside of the European Union who is not a refugee and does not already have a residence permit in Poland. Work permits require a labor market test and can be issued for up to 3 years. In 2022, 61.1% of work permits were issued for at least 12 months (including 49.2% issued for 24 months and more) while 38.5% were issued for 6–12 months. Less than 0.4% were issued for less than 6 months.
Declarations of entrusting work to a foreigner
In addition to work permits, there is a secondary, easier work migration scheme called declarations of entrusting work to a foreigner. Compared to the work permit system, employers seeking to entrust work to a foreigner do not need to subject the job to a labor market test. However, the work visa is only valid for up to 24 months instead of 36 months. Prior to 2022, the time limits were even stricter, with a 6-month maximum stay that had to be accompanied by a 6-month period outside of Poland until a new work visa could be obtained. This system is only open to citizens of 5 post-Soviet countries, though business leaders have called for an extension to other post-Soviet republics. Russian citizens are excluded from the program since October 2022, following the invasion of Ukraine.
Between 2007 and 2017, this scheme was known as a declaration of intention to entrust work to a foreigner, though it led to numerous abuses, since after submitting the statement, employers were not obliged to report whether the foreigner had come, and whether they had taken the job. Migrants would sometimes take up different work than previously indicated, use the permit to move to Western Europe, or not arrive at all. On 1 January 2018, it was replaced by the current scheme. Since then, employers are obliged to report the fact that the migrant has taken up employment. The change limits the comparability of the data from the previous periods.
Seasonal work permits
Since January 2018, employers may hire foreigners on a seasonal work permit, used specifically for agricultural and tourism-related work. In 2020, 60.8% of hired foreigners were women, 42% were under 35 years old, and most worked in Poland from 31 to 90 days. The vast majority of migrants come from Ukraine, as well as Belarus, Moldova, and Georgia, since the law doesn't require the employer to look for potential Polish workers before hiring a foreigner from said countries.
Social insurance data
Polish social insurance provider, Zakład Ubezpieczeń Społecznych (ZUS), reported 1,094,148 foreigners paying towards pension insurance in Poland at the end of June 2023, an 8.1% increase since the year prior and more than double compared to 5 years ago. Foreigners were 6.74% of all insured in Poland, an increase from basically 0 just a few years earlier. Ukrainians and Belarusians were the largest groups of foreigners, at 68.4% and 11.1%, respectively. Other nationalities with more than 10,000 people insured in the Polish insurance system include: Georgians (27,434), Indians (18,620), Moldovans (14,654), and Russians (12,709).
Education
In light of a lack of centralized and trustworthy population statistics, the education system is another source of information about immigrants and foreign nationals in Poland. As of September 2022, there were 352,923 students with a foreign nationality in Poland in non-college education, approximately 6.8% of all students in the country. The vast majority were Ukrainians - 307,944 (of which 200,734 were in a refugee status), followed by Belarusians (19,647).
There were also 85,897 foreign college students in Poland as of 2021 (excluding those studying on short-term study programs such as Erasmus).
Ukrainian refugees
Poland has been at the forefront of the Ukrainian refugee crisis from the very beginning, as the country shares a long border with Ukraine and many Ukrainians have family members working or studying in Poland. As the refugee crisis became apparent, Polish authorities waived certain entry restrictions for people fleeing Ukraine, such as requirements for passports and, along with millions of private citizens, organized food and shelter for the arriving refugees. Poland's response to the Ukrainian refugee crisis has won the country international praise.
As of September 2023, 958,120 refugees remain in Poland, of which 408,884 are under 18. More than 1 in 10 refugees lives in Warsaw (103,476), followed by Wrocław (45,942), Kraków (31,795) and Poznań (24,312). Refugees are not counted towards the official population number by GUS as they are in a temporary residence status and temporary residents are not reported.
Ethnic groups
Poland was a diverse country before World War II, with only around 2/3 of the population being ethnically Polish. Due to German and Soviet war-time resettlements and genocides, and after-war population transfers, post-war Poland was one of the most ethnically homogenous countries in Europe and stayed that way until the 21st century.
Religions
Historically, Poland has been a religiously diverse country. However, after the Holocaust during World War II and population transfers after the war, Poland became predominantly Catholic, with small Orthodox, Protestant and Jewish communities.
The most recent census has shown a Catholic majority again, however with a significant drop in self-declared Catholics compared to a census 10 years earlier. Roman Catholics constitute 71.3% of the population, down from 95.95% in 2011.
Languages
Polish 97.8%, other and unspecified 2.2% (2002 census)
See also
Health in Poland
Polish diaspora
Statistics Poland
Notes
References
External links
Statistics Poland
CIA World Factbook 2004
The Protection of National Minorities in Poland report by Helsinki Foundation for Human Rights
Internationales Institut für Nationalitätenrecht und Regionalismus
Demographics of Poland
Society of Poland
Articles with accessibility problems