2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election
The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Voters will elect a president and vice president for a term of four years. Incumbent President Joe Biden, a member of the Democratic Party, is running for re-election. His predecessor Donald Trump, a member of the Republican Party, is running for re-election to a second, nonconsecutive term. If Trump wins, he will become the second president to achieve this feat, after Grover Cleveland. If both are nominated by their respective parties, it will mark the first presidential rematch since 1956. A number of primary election challengers have also declared their candidacies for the nomination of both major parties. The winner of this election is scheduled to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
Prior to the general election, political parties will choose their nominees at nominating conventions. Delegates to the nominating conventions will be chosen by voters in state-level caucuses and primary elections.
The presidential election will occur at the same time as elections to the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House. Several states will also hold gubernatorial and state legislative elections. Crime, education, immigration, gun control, healthcare, abortion access, LGBT rights (especially transgender rights), the state of the economy, and climate change are expected to be leading campaign issues.
Background
Procedure
Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. Both incumbent president Biden and former president Donald Trump are eligible. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. Each party's national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.
The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president.
Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election.
Both Biden and Trump have announced that they are running for president in 2024, suggesting a potential rematch of the 2020 election, which would be the first presidential rematch since 1956. If Trump is elected, he would become the second president to win a second non-consecutive term, joining Grover Cleveland who did so in 1892.
Electoral map
Effects of the 2020 census
This will be the first U.S. presidential election to occur after the reapportionment of votes in the United States Electoral College following the 2020 United States census. If the results of the 2020 election were to stay the same (which has never occurred in the history of presidential elections) in 2024, Democrats would have 303 electoral votes against the Republicans' 235, a slight change from Biden's 306 electoral votes and Trump's 232, meaning that Democrats lost a net of 3 electoral votes to the reapportionment process. This apportionment of electoral college votes will remain only through the 2028 election. Reapportionment will be conducted again after the 2030 United States census.
Electoral partisanship
In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive due to demographics keeping them solidly behind one party. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that swing states — competitive states that "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties — are vital to winning the presidency. As of now, these include states in the Rust Belt, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. North Carolina may also be considered a battleground state, due to the close result in the previous presidential election, in which Trump only won by 1.34%. Due to gradual demographic shifts, some former swing states such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida have shifted significantly towards the Republicans, favoring them in future statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, states like Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia have moved noticeably towards the Democrats, and the party has become the dominant political force there.
The traditional Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, is mainly composed of minoritized communities (especially African-Americans and Latinos), women, educated professionals, and urban voters. Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party became significantly more diverse and culturally liberal. Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural white voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters. Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement, a brand of right-wing populism cultivated by former President Donald Trump. The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, because the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.
Campaign issues
Abortion legality
Legal abortion access is expected to be a key topic during the campaign. This is the first presidential election to be held in the aftermath of two major court rulings that affected access to abortion. The first is the 2022 Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision, in which the United States Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, leaving abortion law entirely to the states, including bans on abortion. The second is the 2023 Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine v. U.S. Food and Drug Administration, in which a federal judge in northwest Texas overturned the FDA's approval of mifepristone in 2000, which could potentially pull the medication from the market if upheld by higher courts. Both rulings have received strong support from Republican politicians and lawmakers.
In 2022, six states held elections for ballot measures relating to the legality of abortion, and the pro-abortion rights side was victorious in every case, including in states easily won by President Trump. By April 2023, a large majority of Republican-controlled states had passed near-total bans on abortion, rendering it "largely illegal" throughout much of the United States. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, there are 15 states that have de jure early stage bans on abortion without exceptions for rape or incest.
Democrats are predominantly supportive of viewing abortion access as a right. The topic of abortion will likely play a role in the Republican primary; some candidates such as former vice president Mike Pence, support federal restrictions on abortion and a ban of mifepristone, while other candidates including former president Donald Trump do not support federal restrictions on the procedure. The topic has not received much attention from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is also running for president and is widely seen as the leading challenger to former President Donald Trump. However, when a six-week abortion restriction was authorized by the Florida Legislature, DeSantis signed it into law on that day. In September 2023, Republican candidates attacked Trump for calling Florida's six-week abortion ban "a terrible mistake", while disputing with each other over whether a federal ban should be imposed, or whether this should be left to the states to decide.
Economic issues
The COVID-19 pandemic left behind significant economic effects which are likely to persist into 2024. A period of high inflation began in 2021, caused by a confluence of events including the pandemic and a supply-chain crisis, which was then heightened by economic effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Opinion polling over Biden's handling of the economy has consistently been negative since late 2021. Voters often cite economic issues as their top issue for the 2024 election.
Women were particularly affected by the economic downturn in the wake of the pandemic, particularly those who left their work for childcare responsibilities. Temporary childcare measures, including an expanded child tax credit as part of the American Rescue Plan, were introduced as methods designed to help the economic situation of parents, but these would expire before the 2024 election. Biden stated that offering universal pre-kindergarten services as well as caregiver support would be a priority of a second term.
Education
Under the Biden administration, several rounds of student loan forgiveness have been issued, totaling over $32 billion in relief, including for borrowers who had educational institutions who misled them on job placement, for borrowers who have become permanently disabled, and for borrowers enrolled in the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program. In August 2022, a plan was unveiled that would eliminate $10,000 in student loan debt for single graduates making less than $125,000 or married couples making less than $250,000. $20,000 would be eliminated for borrowers of Pell Grants, a program aimed at providing need-based assistance. In June 2023, this plan was overturned in the Supreme Court decision Biden v. Nebraska, which ruled that the HEROES Act, which the Biden administration had relied upon for authority, did not allow for widespread loan forgiveness. Biden intends to implement new methods of student debt relief, working around the Supreme Court decision.
Some Republican candidates/prospective candidates see education as a winning campaign issue. Dozens of states have created laws preventing the instruction of critical race theory, an academic discipline focused on the examination of racial inequality. Supporters of the laws claim that conversations about racial identity are not appropriate for a school environment. Critics of the laws against critical race theory claim they whitewash American history and act as memory laws to rewrite public memory of U.S. history.
Election interference
Donald Trump did not concede to Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election, citing unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud, and has continued denying the election results . Republican officials in the Trump administration and in Congress have supported attempts to overturn the election. Election security experts have warned that officials who deny the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election may attempt to impede the voting process or refuse to certify the 2024 election results.
In the aftermath of the January 6 United States Capitol attack, FBI director Christopher A. Wray testified that far-right domestic terrorism "has been metastasizing across the country for a long time now, and it's not going away anytime soon." Ali Alexander, who organized one of the many rallies preceding the U.S. Capitol attack, stated in August 2022 that he would be returning to the Capitol building in 2025 "for whatever the Congress certifies."
Voluminous public polling has shown that large majorities of Americans belonging to both political parties believe that democracy in the United States is at risk. Voters often cite different sources of threats to democracy depending on ideology. Liberals tend to believe that conservatives are threatening the country with autocratic tendencies and their attempts to overturn the 2020 election. Many conservatives believe that the Democrats cheated in the 2020 election, and attempted or were still attempting to remove former President Trump from holding public office by any means necessary, including impeachment and indictment. Voters of both parties tend to agree that the influence of money in politics, the potential for political violence, and general corruption of public officials are aggravating factors threatening the health of American democracy.
Electoral reform
The American electoral system is frequently criticized for being unfair due to the Electoral College, first-past-the-post voting and gerrymandering resulting in two political parties dominating the political scene for hundreds of years. Electoral reform had largely gained in popularity after the 2016 United States presidential election in which the candidate with a plurality vote lost the Electoral College. Candidates for the election campaigning for an electoral reform include Democratic candidate Marianne Williamson, Libertarian candidate Lars Mapstead and independent candidate Cornel West.
Firearms regulation
During a National Rifle Association (NRA) conference in Indianapolis on April 14, 2023, Donald Trump and other potential Republican presidential candidates expressed their support for gun owners' rights, on the heels of recent mass shootings in Nashville and Louisville. Democrats criticized the GOP's march of candidates in front of the NRA, saying firearms will be a big issue throughout the 2024 election year.
President Joe Biden has asked Congress to pass an assault weapons ban following the shooting in Nashville.
Foreign policy
The United States has provided significant military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Democratic politicians and a significant number of Republican politicians have supported this plan, arguing that the United States has a significant role to play in "protecting democracy and fighting Russian aggression." Some candidates, including Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump, claim that Ukraine and suppressing Russian intervention should not be a significant interest to the United States, and that the plan should be more limited. Vivek Ramaswamy favors ending U.S. military aid to Ukraine and would recognize Russian annexed territories.
LGBT rights
In recent years, conservative politicians in state legislatures have introduced a large and growing number of bills that restrict the rights of LGBT people, especially transgender people.
In a February campaign message, Donald Trump said that if reelected, he would enact a federal law that would recognize only two genders, claimed that being transgender is a concept made up by "the radical left", and would enact nearly a dozen policies that would target transgender Americans. Ron DeSantis has signed several anti-LGBT laws as Governor of Florida, including the controversial Florida Parental Rights in Education Act, referred to by critics as the "Don't Say Gay" law, which prohibits speaking about sexual orientation and gender identity in Florida public schools.
Democratic Party
On April 25, 2023, President Joe Biden announced his run for re-election, keeping Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate. Consequently, Republicans have intensified their criticism of Harris since Biden declared his intention to run for office. During late 2021, as Biden was facing low approval ratings, there was speculation that he would not seek re-election, and some prominent Democrats (Representatives Carolyn Maloney, Tim Ryan and former Representative Joe Cunningham) publicly urged Biden not to run. In addition to Biden's unpopularity, many are concerned about his age; he was the oldest person to assume the office at age 78 and would be 82 at the end of his first term. If re-elected, he would be 86 at the end of his second term.
According to an NBC poll released in April 2023, 70 percent of Americans—including 51 percent of Democrats—believe Biden should not run for a second term. Almost half said it was because of his age. According to the FiveThirtyEight national polling average, Biden's current approval rating is 41 percent, while 55 percent disapprove. There was also speculation that Biden may face a primary challenge from a member of the Democratic Party's progressive faction. After Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterm elections, many believed the chances that Biden would run for and win his party's nomination had increased.
Author Marianne Williamson announced her candidacy in February 2023, before Biden announced his own candidacy for reelection. Williamson had previously sought the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. In April 2023, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced his candidacy for the nomination. A member of the Kennedy family, he is an environmental lawyer and author who has promoted anti-vaccine misinformation and conspiracy theories related to vaccines. Beginning in July 2023, Kennedy's support remained between 10-15% in the RealClear Politics average of polls taken among likely voters in the Democratic primary. On October 9, 2023, Kennedy announced that he would be dropping out of the Democratic primary and would instead run as an independent candidate. While Kennedy had been a lifelong Democrat, his net approval rating among Democrats was significantly lower than his net approval rating among Republican voters. In a New York Times/Sienna College poll taken in late July, Kennedy had a net 31% disapproval rating among Democrats, but a net 36% approval rating among Republicans. Representative Dean Phillips announced his run against Biden on October 26.
Declared candidates
Other declared candidates
Withdrawn candidates before the primaries
Other notable individuals who were not considered major candidates and who withdrew from the race before the beginning of the primary season include:
Jerome Segal, research scholar and Bread and Roses Party nominee for president in 2020 (running for U.S. Senate in Maryland)
Republican Party
Donald Trump, the then-incumbent president, was defeated by Biden in the 2020 election and is eligible to run again in 2024, making him the fifth ex-president to seek a second non-consecutive term. If he wins, Trump would be the second president to win a non-consecutive term, after Grover Cleveland. He filed a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on November 15, 2022, and announced his candidacy in a speech at Mar-a-Lago the same day. Trump is considered an early frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, following his 2024 campaign announcement on November 15, 2022. Trump announced in March 2022 that if he runs for re-election and wins the Republican presidential nomination, his former vice president Mike Pence will not be his running mate.
In March 2023, Trump was indicted over his hush money payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. Trump was again indicted in June over his handling of classified documents which contained materials sensitive to national security. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges related to these indictments.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is seen as the main challenger to Trump for the Republican nomination; he raised more campaign funds in the first half of 2022 and had more favorable polling numbers than Trump by the end of 2022.
On May 24, 2023, DeSantis announced his candidacy on Twitter in an online conversation with Twitter CEO Elon Musk. "American decline is not inevitable — it is a choice...I am running for president of the United States to lead our great American comeback", DeSantis added. His campaign stated to have raised $1 million in the first hour following the announcement of his candidacy. Speaking on Fox & Friends, he stated that he would "destroy leftism" in the United States. At the end of July 2023, FiveThirtyEight's national polling average of the Republican primaries had Trump at 52 percent, and DeSantis at 15.
Declared candidates
Other declared candidates
Withdrawn candidates before the primaries
Other notable individuals who were not considered major candidates and who withdrew from the race before the beginning of the primary season include:
Steve Laffey, mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island (2003–2007)
Independent/third party
Nominated candidates
The following individuals have been nominated by their respective parties to run for president.
American Solidarity Party
Peter Sonski, Connecticut local public office holder and director of the Knights of Columbus Museum.
Party for Socialism and Liberation
Claudia de la Cruz, political activist
Declared candidates
The following individuals have declared their intent to run for president.
Independents
Joseph "Afroman" Foreman, rapper
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., attorney and activist (campaign; formerly ran for Democratic nomination)
Taylor Marshall, podcaster and author
Vermin Supreme, performance artist, activist, and perennial candidate; former Libertarian Party Judicial Committee member (2020–2022)
Cornel West, philosopher and public intellectual (campaign; formerly ran for Green nomination)
Libertarian Party
Chase Oliver, nominee for U.S. Senate in Georgia, 2022
Michael Rectenwald, author and former liberal studies professor at New York University
Potential candidates
Independent/other party
Tulsi Gabbard, United States Representative from HI-02 (2013–2021), member of the Honolulu City Council (2011–2012), member of the Hawaii House of Representatives (2002–2004), Democratic candidate for president in 2020
William H. McRaven, Commander of the United States Special Operations Command (2011–2014) and Chancellor of the University of Texas System (2015–2018)
Jesse Ventura, former Governor of Minnesota (1999–2003)
No Labels
Bill Cassidy, United States Senator from Louisiana (2015–present)
Liz Cheney, United States Representative from WY-AL (2017–2023), Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs (2002–2004, 2005–2009)
Larry Hogan, 62nd Governor of Maryland (2015–2023), Secretary of Appointments of Maryland (2003–2007)
Joe Manchin, United States Senator from West Virginia (2010–present), 34th Governor of West Virginia (2005–2010), 27th West Virginia Secretary of State (2001–2005), member of the West Virginia Senate from the 13th district (1986–1996), member of the West Virginia House of Delegates from the 31st district (1982–1986)
Withdrawn candidates
The following notable individuals announced and then suspended their campaigns before the election:
Kanye West, rapper, candidate for president in 2020 (campaign)
Forecasts
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
"tossup": no advantage
"tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
"lean" or "leans": slight advantage
"likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
"safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections (all three) are omitted for brevity.
See also
2024 United States elections
2024 United States gubernatorial elections
2024 United States House of Representatives elections
2024 United States Senate elections
Nationwide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election
Timeline of the 2024 United States presidential election
Notes
References
United States presidential election, 2024