Battle of Avdiivka (2022–present)

Battle of Avdiivka (2022–present)
The battle of Avdiivka is an ongoing military engagement between the Russian Armed Forces and Russian-controlled Donbas militias on one side and the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the other. It is being fought over the city of Avdiivka, located in the Donbas region. Fighting started when violence erupted in the Donbas again on 21 February 2022, when Russian president Vladimir Putin recognized the Donetsk People's Republic. Days later, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Avdiivka was among the first places to be attacked.
Avdiivka has been described as a "gateway" to Russia-occupied Donetsk, and continued Ukrainian control of the city has prevented Russia from using nearby Donetsk and its resources as a communications hub. However, Avdiivka is one of the most fortified settlements in Ukraine, which has made it very difficult for Russia to break through, despite heavy fighting for over a year.
Background
Avdiivka is a strategic location, in the heart of the Donetsk region, near the city of Donetsk, the region's principal city. Avdiivka has been at the front lines of the Russo-Ukrainian War since 2015. It was the site of the 2017 battle of Avdiivka, resulting in destruction in the town, though Ukrainian forces still held it.
Battle
Early fighting (21 February – 17 April 2022)
Fighting began on 21 February 2022, when Russian forces alongside separatist militias renewed fighting in Avdiivka. When Russia officially started its invasion of Ukraine, Avdiivka was one of its main targets. On 13 March, Russian forces bombed the Avdiivka Coke Plant although the Russians accused Ukraine of sabotaging it. The National Police of Ukraine said on 22 March that Russia used Tornado-S MLRSs in bombardments of Avdiivka, allegedly causing civilian casualties. It was reported on 25 March that Artem Murakhovskyi, a commander of the Azov Regiment, was killed in Avdiivka.
Escalation (18 April – 27 July 2022)
On 18 April, Russia renewed its invasion on Eastern Ukraine, with both sides proclaiming the beginning of the "battle of Donbas" and Russia beginning to heavily shell and attack Avdiivka. Around 2,000 of Avdiivka's residents were forced to flee underground. Ukraine claimed to have repelled Russian advances in Avdiivka on 19 April.
During the battle, use of white phosphorus munitions by Russian forces was reported several times. Governor of Donetsk Oblast Pavlo Kyrylenko reported a phosphorus attack on the city industrial zone on 26 March, on the area of the coking plant on 26 April, and on the city center, causing several fires, the next day. On 29 April, videos of the Russian army shelling Ukrainian forces in Avdiivka with a thermobaric weapon were published. On 18 May, Avdiivka 1st school was destroyed by a Russian attack with phosphorus munitions. On May 26, Ukraine's General Staff reported that Russian forces were advancing through Avdiivka, capturing many areas in the city.
On 1 June, the DPR took control of a major highway. On 6 June, the DPR took territory near Kamianka. On 12 June, Russia again bombed the Avdiivka Coke Plant. School No. 6 was destroyed on 21 June, being the third school destroyed in Avdiivka. On 24 June, Russian forces fired on Avdiivka. Russian forces later captured Novoselivka Druha on 4 July, which is 10 km northeast of Avdiivka, in an attempt to encircle the city. On 7 July, Russian forces shelled Avdiivka for 24 hours. They hit infrastructure, a hospital, residential buildings, a bus depot, and the Avdiivka Coke Plant.
On 18 July, the DPR claimed it had "half-surrounded" Avdiivka, having blocked two of the roads leading into the town. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) an American based non-profit think-tank, also stated that fighting north of Avdiivka had intensified on July 18. However, Igor Girkin said that the DPR's forces were unable to make many gains due to Ukrainian artillery.
Renewed assaults and capture of Pisky (28 July 2022 – March 2023)
On 28 July, DPR and Russian forces launched a offensive to surround Avdiivka. Russian and separatist forces assaulted the towns of Krasnohorivka, Pisky, and other towns north of Avdiivka. On 31 July, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces attempted advances around Kamyanka and Pisky and that separate Russian units had ”partial success” around Avdiivka. Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) Deputy Information Minister Daniil Bezsonov claimed that Russian and DPR forces secured positions on the southeastern outskirts of Pisky, which was consistent with Ukrainian reports. The Head of the Avdiivka City Military Administration Vitalii Barabash said that only 10% of the pre-war population of Avdiivka remained or about 2,500 people.
Ukraine said on 5 August that it lost the Butivka coal mine to Russia that was pushed to the outskirts of Avdiivka. The DPR claimed its forces and Russia took Pisky, with Ukraine rejecting the claim. On August 7, combat footage showed that Russian forces had reached the centre of Pisky. Five days later on August 12, the ISW reported that based on combat footage and satellite imagery, much of Pisky had been leveled by the Russians, because of heavy shelling using thermobaric artillery systems. On 24 August, Russian and DNR forces captured Pisky. In early September, several separatist units, including the Sparta Battalion and Somalia Battalion, launched an attack in the wider Avdiivka area, most importantly near Pisky. As of late September, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ukrainian forces "remain[ed] on the defensive" in Avdiivka. On 10 October, Ukraine said Russia was continuing its offensive in Avdiivka and was trying to encircle the city. In mid-January 2023, Russian and DNR forces made an attempt to capture the village of Vodyane, the action was described by a British military blogger as "calamitous".
Later encirclement attempts (March 2023 – October 2023)
In March 2023 Ukrainian commander at Avdiivka said that Russian forces were trying to fully encircle the city. On 24 April, the Ukrainians claimed to have repulsed a Russian attack, and to have killed or wounded 200 Russian soldiers and destroyed 20 pieces of equipment. On 21 May, the Ukrainians claimed to have defeated a mechanized Russian assault near Avdiivka. During the engagement, they claimed to have killed 40 Russian soldiers and to have destroyed 5 armored vehicles, including at least two tanks.
Fighting in the battle intensified during the beginning of the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive, with Russian forces putting pressure on the outskirts of the town and Ukrainians digging in. On 10 September 2023, Avdiivka City Military Administration Head Vitaliy Barabash reported that Ukrainian forces had gained a foothold in the urban portion of the village of Opytne 3km southwest of Avdiivka and 2km north of the Donetsk International Airport claiming to secured the southern border of the city, ending a threat of near encirclement.
Renewed Russian offensive (10 October 2023 – present)
Starting on 10 October, Russian forces attacked the north, west and south of Avdiivka with armoured assault groups and helicopters, supported by artillery. Three motorized rifle brigades of the Russian 8th Combined Arms Army began a concerted offensive action around Avdiivka southwest near Sieverne and northwest near and Krasnohorivka. All Russian units involved in the renewed offensive observed so far are members of the Donetsk people's militias the 8th CAA absorbed at the start of the invasion.
On 11 October, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russia initiated 18 combat engagements against the city during the last 24 hours. Additionally the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian army launched one missile strike and 36 air strikes, while the Ukrainian air force launched 12 strikes. Andrii Kovaliov, a spokesman for the Ukrainian General Staff, reported separately in an interview with Radio Svoboda that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had prior knowledge of this attempted assault and were ready for it. On 12 October ISW assessed that Russian forces "have not secured any major breakthrough" and are unlikely to cut off Ukrainian forces due to heavy losses, equivalent to battalion tactical group in armoured vehicles.
Russian forces would maintain days-long assaults, only showing signs of letting up by 16 October when Barabash reported that Russian forces only attempted to storm the city 15 times, compared to the 60 time average during the middle of the week. Andriy Serhan, the commander of the 59th Motorized Brigade's drone platoon, stated that the Russian assault had failed, but that the Russians are regrouping for another attempt. Additionally, Ukrainian sources reported that Russian positions were reinforced with three units based on DNR militias, the 114th, 15th, and 21st Motor Rifle Brigades while the 30th Motor Rifle Brigade is kept in reserve.
On 18 October, the 21st Motor Rifle Brigade, made up of professional soldiers, launched an attack to take a huge pile of coke slack (formed from the nearby Avdiivka Coke Plant), and while they managed to take some forward positions, they failed to take the “hill”. The Ukrainians claimed to have destroyed 97 Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armoured personnel carriers. Another Ukrainian source claimed that 620 Russian soldiers and 34 units of military equipment were lost on the 18th.
On 19 October, a new concerted Russian push began with the DNR's “Kluny” Sabotage, Assault and Reconnaissance group making gains north of Spartak, DNR forces are also attempting a frontal assault of Avdiivka, as opposed to encircling, with the 1st Motorized Rifle Brigade attacking a fortified restaurant, the “Tsarska Okhota”, on the city's south-eastern outskirts. The 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade reported to have advanced "a few hundred" meters in the Vodyane-Netaylove direction. The 114th Motorized Rifle Brigade and 277th Infantry Battalion attacked near Stepove. The 1454th Motorized Rifle Regiment and the 21st Motorized Rifle Brigade attacked near Kamyanka. Lastly the “Pyatnashka” and ”Yugra” volunteer battalions attempted to advance to the N20 highway east of Avdiivka. This new assault has not secured any portion of the Urban areas of the villages surrounding Avdiivka, with reported gains being limited to the rural outskirts.
On 20 October, a report by David Axe of Forbes stated that the Ukrainian claim of 175 Russian armored vehicles destroyed (between the previous Thursday and Friday), including 55 tanks, is nearly 20 times higher than the daily average of three Russian tanks destroyed since February 2022. Meanwhile, according to a report from the Euromaidan Press, 65% of the nearly 1,400 Russian soldiers claimed to have been killed on 19 October occurred on just two 5 kilometer segments of the front near Avdiivka. They also stated that these losses are almost 50% higher than the first day of the offensive, although this attack was reportedly not as intense as the first one. On 22 October, the ISW assessed that the Russian offensive effort that started on 19 October failed and that Russian forces were again pausing their efforts to regroup and rearm. Additionally, Russian milbloggers disputed among each other if there was a Ukrainian counteroffensive towards the villages of Pisky and Opytne.
On 22 October, a Ukrainian spokesperson, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun reported that Russian command is still moving more units from the front in Zaporizhia to Avdiivka, namely the 6th Motor Rifle Division. Russian and Ukrainian sources also reported that Russia has committed elements of the Redut PMC to Avdiivka, alongside the 106th Airborne. It was also reported on 24 October that Russia had moved elements of its 41st Combined Arms Army to reserve positions near Avdiivka. On 25 October, a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces had pushed Russian forces out of the village of Berdychi 10km northeast of Avdiivka. On 26 October Russian milbloggers attributed rain and poor weather for the decrease in intensity around Avdiivka.
On 28 October, a Russian military correspondent interviewed the commander of the Arbat Battalion reported that elements of the Wagner Group had joined the Battalion, which is part of the DNR's “Dikaya Division of Donbas” and the “Pyatnashka Brigade", and that the main objective of Russian forces across the front is the capture of Avdiivka. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets assessed that Russia has committed the "main force" of the 8th Combined Arms Army, consisting of the DNR's entire 1st Army Corps as well as the Luhansk People's Republic's (LPR) 2nd Army Corps, 20th Motorized Rifle Division, and the 150th Motorized Rifle Division to the front around Avdiivka. The same day Russian forces advanced north of Avdiivka capturing a elevated slag dump across the railroad and the coke plant.
On 31 October, Ukrainian official Oleksandr Shtupun claimed that Russia has launched a new assault on Avdiivka consisting of Storm-Z penal units.
Casualties
Military casualties
Russian and Ukrainian losses have been described as heavy, with the battle being compared to the Battle of Bakhmut that left tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed.
Ukrainian claims of Russian casualties
According to an analysis by the Kyiv Post, the Russian 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army has been rendered “combat ineffective” as a result of heavy losses suffered during the offensive in this area. Its worst-hit unit, the 114th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, lost 190 dead and 160 wounded in October, from an initial strength of 1,800 to 2,000 men, of which just 600 to 800 were assigned to “combat duties”. The Ukrainians listed eleven brigades or equivalents under the 2nd CAA’s command which have suffered similar losses, with a total 1,500 front-line soldiers dead and 2,000 seriously wounded out of a total strength (including non-combat troops) of 20,000 to 25,000 men.
Meanwhile, according to Ragnar Gudmundsson, an Iceland-based analyst, “Russia hit a probable wartime record of more than 1,400 killed in combat in a single day on Oct. 20 and averaged 900 men a day killed in combat from 10-20 October, coinciding with its push toward Avdiivka, a key city on the eastern front north of Donetsk city”.
On 13 October, according to the Kyiv Post, independent analysts estimates that the Russians suffered losses of 1,000 to 2,000 troops killed or wounded in the first 96 hours of the offensive, along with 30 to 40 tanks and 90 to 100 armored personnel carriers. Meanwhile Ukrainian drone operators reported losses of 100 Russian soldiers and two tanks within the first ten minutes of the fighting with no losses of their own.
On 14 October, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military, claimed that the Russians had lost 3,000 soldiers and 300 pieces of equipment in the past five days since the beginning of the Russian’s offensive.
U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby, in an October 26, 2023 briefing, reported that fresh Russian troops were being thrown into the battle "under-trained, under-equipped, and unprepared for combat," in "human wave" attacks. Retreating Russian soldiers, the U.S. reported, were apparently being shot by orders of their own commanders. By the end of October, the U.S. was estimating that losses in the fight had cost Russia a battalion's worth of equipment, including "at least" 125 armoured vehicles.
On 20 October, according to Ukrainian sources, the Russians lost 900 soldiers killed and wounded, as well as 50 tanks and 100 armored vehicles damaged or destroyed. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers operating there also claimed that they had destroyed 200 armored vehicles over the last four days alone.
On 22 October, the fighting had become so intense that Ukrainian military historian Vasyl Pavlov compared the situation around Avdiivka to the Battles of Rzhev during World War II. “What’s happening around Avdiivka can be compared to a series of events that took place on the Eastern Front during World War II, or let’s say such a well-known event as the Battle of Rzhev,” he claimed in an interview with Espreso TV. In addition, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian presidential administration, told TV Rain that Russia had lost between 5,000 and 6,000 troops in just over a week of their offensive in Avdiivka, as well as 400 armored vehicles. Indeed, according to the Ukrainian military, by 23 October the Russians had been losing as many as 1,000 men killed in action each day during its attempt to take the town, as well as “tens of tanks and armored vehicles”. The recent Russian attacks on Avdiivka “have contributed to a 90% increase in Russian casualties recorded by the Ukrainian MoD (Ministry of Defense),” according to British military intelligence.
On 28 October, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov claimed that Ukrainian troops had killed 4,000 Russian soldiers in the battle so far, which roughly lines up with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s claim the previous day, that Russia had lost “at least a brigade”(between 2,000 and 8,000 personnel) near Avdiivka.
On 29 October, Ukrainian spokesman, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, claimed that they had killed 6,500 Russian soldiers and destroyed 100 tanks (including T-90s) and 250 armored vehicles since 10 October. “If we talk about losses in such a short period on a relatively small part of the front line, Avdiivka is already the largest defeat on the part of the Russians”, he also stated.
Civilian casualties
53 civilians have been killed and wounded in the city since the start of the invasion.
On 8 April, one person was killed and another injured by Russian shelling. On 13 April, one civilian was killed and 12 were wounded in Avdiivka. On 2 May, three civilians were killed due to Russian bombardment. On 3 May 2022, according to a news article on Dutch outlet Nederlandse Omroep Stichting, at least 10 people died and 15 more were injured during an attack on a coking plant. Allegedly, the attack took place after the workers had finished work and were waiting for the bus. On 23 May, Russian shelling and artillery bombarded Avdiivka all night long. Three civilians were injured and 20 houses as well as a kindergarten were damaged severely. On 30 May, one civilian was killed during a street fight in Avdiivka. 2 civilians were killed on June 12. On 5 July, 2 civilians were killed in Avdiivka. One civilian was killed and two wounded on 7 July. One civilian was killed on 6 August. On 12 October 7 civilians were killed and 12 more were injured after a Russian shelling of the city market.
On 12 October, 2023, an 85 year-old civilian was killed by indiscriminate Russian artillery bombardment of the city, two other civilians would also be injured. Ukraine has opened a pre-trial investigation into the attack if it was a war crime as per Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.
By October 2023, 1,000 civilians remained in Avdiivka despite the battle and renewed offensive. On 12 October, 2023, an 85 year-old civilian was killed by indiscriminate Russian artillery bombardment of the city, two other civilians would also be injured. Ukraine has opened a pre-trial investigation into the attack if it was a war crime as per Article 438 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine.
Impact
On October 26, 2023, the ISW compared the Battle of Avdiivka to the Battle of Vuhledar. During which, the ISW assessed that the losses to Russian armor sustained in Vuhledar prevented Russian command from using mechanized offenses through the spring and winter of 2023, and that the Russian losses around Avdiivka in late October surpass Russian losses around Vuhledar.
See also
Outline of the Russo-Ukrainian War
References
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