2018 Lebanese general election

2018 Lebanese general election
General elections were held in Lebanon on 6 May 2018. Although originally scheduled for 2013, the election was postponed three times in 2013, 2014 and 2017 under various pretexts, including the security situation, the failure of the Parliament to elect a new President, and the technical requirements of holding an election. A new electoral law adopted in 2017 provides a proportional representation system for the first time.
Background
Following the last parliamentary election of 2009, it took several months to form a new government. Saad Hariri eventually became prime minister in a March 14 Alliance government formed in November 2009. About a year later, Walid Jumblatt's PSP broke away from the 14 March alliance and withdrew its ministers. Jumblatt then traveled to Syria for the first time in decades and met President Bashar al-Assad. After the government fell over the issue of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, a new government was formed by Najib Mikati that consisted of March 8 Alliance parties, as well as the PSP.
Over the course of the Syrian civil war, fissures started to grow in Lebanon as 14 March parties supported the opposition in Syria while 8 March parties were ostensibly supportive of the Syrian government, particularly in the early stages. The 8 March parties therefore faced accusation from the opposition and its affiliated media of kowtowing to the Syrian government. As the conflict started to spill over into Lebanon, both via refugees and Lebanon's own diverse demographics that are broadly reflective of Syria's own diversity, tensions started to grow. A spate of sectarian kidnappings and threats followed, some of which turned fatal.
On 22 March 2013, Mikati resigned citing a negative climate over the appointment of a committee to oversee the election and the extension of Internal Security Forces (ISF) head Ashraf Rifi, who was expected to retire in April. On 5 April, a new 14 March-backed consensus candidate for prime minister was announced, Tammam Salam.
Postponement
A new president should have been elected by Parliament before the legislative elections took place. However, there was a deadlock which resulted in fourteen fruitless attempts to choose a head of state. Therefore, Parliament decided on 5 November 2014 to extend its term by 2 years and 7 months. The deadlock was perceived to arise from failure to reach quorum due to the voluntary absence of members from the ex- 8 March alliance.
Electoral system
In June 2017 a new electoral law was passed. The previous system (under which the 128 members of parliament were elected from 26 multi-member constituencies under multiple non-transferable vote, and the candidates with the highest number of votes within each religious community were elected) with a new electoral law instituting proportional representation in 15 multi-member constituencies while still maintaining the confessional distribution. However, the 7 out of the 15 of the electoral districts are divided into 2 or more 'minor districts' (largely corresponding to the smaller electoral districts from the old electoral law). Where applicable, preference vote is counted on the 'minor district' level.
Individuals could submit their candidacy for parliament until midnight of 6 March 2018. 976 candidates were registered, including 111 women. Candidates were obliged to join lists, which had to be finalized by 26 March 2018.
Electorate
The Shia electorate constituted the majority of registered voters in Bekaa III, South II and South III, together accounting for 79% of the total Shia electorate.
The Sunni electorate constituted the majority of registered voters in three electoral districts (Beirut I, North I and North II); these three districts represent around two-thirds of the total Sunni electorate.
63% of all Druze voters were registered in the Mount Lebanon IV electoral district, which elected four out of the eight Druze parliamentarians. 97% of the Druze voters were registered in districts from which Druze parliamentarians were elected.
96% of Alawite voters were registered in either the North I or North II electoral districts, which elected one Alawite parliamentarian each.
Maronite Christians constituted the majority of voters in Mount Lebanon I and North III; these two districts represented 42% of the Maronite electorate.
North III also hosted the largest concentration of Greek Orthodox Christian voters (20.7%), representing around a fifth of all Greek Orthodox voters throughout the country. According to 2017 data, the Greek Orthodox constituted 58% of the voters in the Koura minor district of North III.
Bekaa I hosted the largest concentration of Greek Catholic voters, about a fifth of the nationwide Greek Catholic vote.
Beirut I hosted the largest concentrations of Armenians, both Armenian Orthodox and Armenian Catholic voters, who elected 4 out of the 6 Armenian parliamentarians.
The Minorities (Syriac Orthodox, Syriac Catholic, Latin Catholic, Chaldeans, Assyrian Church and Copts) seat was now in Beirut I, which had the largest gathering of Minorities voters.
Jewish voters were mainly found in Beirut II, where they constituted 1.31% of the electorate. However, in the 2009 election only five Jews cast their votes in the Beirut III electoral district.
Below is a summary of the demographics of the Lebanese electorate with data from 2017, divided by the qada administrative districts (or in the case of Beirut, the old 2008 vote law electoral districts).
Parties
Amal
Amal leader and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri held a press conference at his Ain al-Tineh residence on 19 February 2018, to present the electoral platform and the 16 candidates of the Amal Movement. Berri highlighted the ongoing oil exploration project, calling for setting up a national oil company and a sovereign oil fund. He reaffirmed the Amal Movement commitment to 'People, Army, Resistance' policy, urging steadfastness towards Israel.
The Amal-Hezbollah bloc fielded joint 'Hope and Loyalty' lists in the Bekaa III, South II and South III electoral districts. However, compared to the previous election, the Amal-Hezbollah bloc lacked an alliance with Michel Aoun and his Free Patriotic Movement. But whilst FPM and Amal had parted ways nationally, they still managed to form alliances in Mount Lebanon III and Beirut II. In Mount Lebanon III (Baabda) the joint list carried the label 'National Reconciliation'. In Beirut II a joint list of Amal, Hezbollah, FPM and Al-Ahbash was formed, under the label 'Unity of Beirut'. And whilst Berri and the Free Patriotic Movement leader Gebran Bassil had a public fall-out in early 2018, which sparked street riots, Berri's post as Speaker of the Parliament appeared to be fairly secured during the electoral campaign. Both the Hariri and Jumblatt camps affirmed their support to Berri's speakership in the run-up to the polls. According to political analysts, the Amal-Hezbollah victory seemed probably in Berri's home constituency, South II, as opposition forces had failed to produce a strong list to challenge him in his home turf.
In Bekaa II, Amal backed the 'Best Tomorrow' list.
Free Patriotic Movement
The electoral slogan of the party was 'A Strong [FPM] for a Strong Lebanon'. The party formed a number of local coalitions with a wide array alliance partners around the country. In North III FPM fielded the "Strong North" list, headed by Gebran Bassil, in alliance with the Independence Movement and the Future Movement. In Mount Lebanon I (Byblos-Kesrwan) FPM fielded the "Strong Lebanon" list led by Chamel Roukoz. In Mount Lebanon II (Metn) FPM fielded the "Strong Metn" list together with the SSNP and Tashnaq.
After the split between the Future Movement and the Lebanese Forces, a joint list for Beirut I of the Free Patriotic Movement, Tashnaq and the Hunchaks was conceived. supported by the Future Movement. In Bekaa I FPM, Future, Tashnaq and independents fielded a joint list. In North I (Akkar) and South II (Saida-Jezzine) FPM formed electoral alliances with al-Jamaat al-Islamiyya. In North II FPM fielded a list in alliance with Kamal Kheir.
Moreover, whilst FPM and the Amal-Hezbollah coalition parted ways nationally, joint lists were presented in Beirut II and in Mount Lebanon III (Baabda).
In Bekaa III (Baalbek-Hermel) FPM had hoped to form a list together with former speaker Hussein el-Husseini, but the project fell apart as el-Husseini withdrew from the electoral process. In the end, the Free Patriotic Movement candidates joined the list led by the former regional secretary of the Baath Party, Faiz Shukr.
In South III the Future Movement, the Free Patriotic Movement and the Lebanese Democratic Party supported a joint list called "The South is Worth It", with two FPM-supported independents.
Future Movement
At a ceremony in the Seaside Pavilion on 11 March 2018 the candidates and electoral platform of the Future Movement were presented. The party fielded 37 candidates, out of whom 21 were newcomers. The political newcomers included lawyer Roula Tabash Jaroudi in Beirut II and civil society activist Chadi Nacchabe in Tripoli.
The electoral slogan of the party was 'Blue Talisman' (kharzé zar’a). Commenting on the slogan party leader Saad Hariri stated that "[the] Future Movement is a Talisman (blue bead) that you put in the ballot box, to protect the country. For that reason, our slogan is the protection of Lebanon and the symbol is the Talisman. You will draw the Talisman with your activity, with your energy, with your daily small and large contributions to the electoral machine, in your dialogue with people, in working for each candidate on the Future lists."
The Future Movement and the Lebanese Forces negotiated for weeks on forming an electoral alliance, but the effort failed as relations between Future leader Saad Hariri and LF leader Samir Geagea deteriorated on issues relating to Hariri's visit to Saudi Arabia.
Hezbollah
On 19 February 2018, Hezbollah general secretary Hassan Nasrallah presented the names of the 13 Hezbollah candidates. Amongst the candidates there were five new faces.
On 22 March 2018, Nasrallah issued a statement outlining the main priorities for the parliamentary bloc of the party, Loyalty to the Resistance, in the next parliament. He stated that rooting out corruption would be the foremost priority of the Loyalty to the Resistance bloc. He described the relation with FPM as 'normal', whilst reaffirming the claim that opponents to the Amal-Hezbollah bloc in Bekaa III had supported 'terrorist groups'.
The electoral slogan of the party was 'We will construct and we will protect'.
Overall, Hezbollah performed the best in the case of popular vote in the election, and had substantial electoral vote gains as well.
Kataeb Party
Kataeb ran the elections based on an attempt to re-brand the party as a reformist political force, and distance it from its right-wing conservative legacy. The electoral slogan of the party was 'A Pulse for Change'. Its electoral platform was a comprehensive list of policies that included 131 points, including a range of long-demanded reforms. The party held the elections based on a discourse inspired by protest movements, and attempted to re-brand itself away. However, it failed to make any gains in the elections, losing two of its parliamentary seats and gaining only three seats, two of whom for party leader and Amine Gemayel's son Samy Gemayel, and Nadim Gemayel, son of late president-elect and Lebanese Forces leader Bashir Gemayel.
Lebanese Forces
The Lebanese Forces announced the names of 19 party candidates and 20 allies on LF-supported lists at an event in Beirut on 14 March 2018 (the anniversary of the founding of the March 14 Movement). At the event LF leader Samir Geagea affirmed commitment to the cause of the 14 March Movement.
The electoral slogan of the party for the election campaign was It has become necessary (sar badda).
Progressive Socialist Party
At the ceremony marking the 40th anniversary of killing of Progressive Socialist Party founder Kamal Jumblatt in Moukhtara on 19 February 2017, Walid Jumblatt symbolically gave his keffiyeh to his son Taymour, symbolically marking the generational shift in the party leadership.
The Democratic Gathering bloc, the parliamentary platform of the Progressive Socialist Party, fielded 9 candidates across the country. The number of candidates of the party was lower than in previous elections, in 2009 the bloc won 11 seats. For the first time since 1992 PSP chief Walid Jumblatt did not stand as a candidate, with Taymour taking over as the party leader. The party fielded candidates for 3 out of 4 Druze seats in Mount Lebanon IV, keeping with the tradition of leaving a seat uncontested to help LDP chief Talal Arslan get elected.
PSP joined joint lists with the Future Movement in Beirut II, Bekaa II and Mount Lebanon IV and with Lebanese Forces in Mount Lebanon III and Mount Lebanon IV.
Arab Democratic Party
In a statement issued on 29 April 2018 the Political Representative of the Arab Democratic Party Rifaat Eid called on his followers to vote for the Alawite candidates Hussein Saloum (on the list of Wajih Barini) in North I and Ahmed Omran in North II (on the list of Faisal Karami).
Arab Socialist Ba'ath Party
Prior to the election the Arab Socialist Baath Party had suffered a split, with Regional Secretary Assem Qanso and Numan Shalq heading in different directions. Both factions had nominated candidates for the elections, but none was accepted into a list and were thus eliminated from the polls. Reportedly, the Syrian ambassador had lobbied against any list accepting Qanso's candidates, as his group is not recognized from Damascus. A Baathist politician, Kassem Hachem, was included in a list in South III as Amal candidate, but not on behalf of the party. Former Regional Secretary Fayez Shukr headed a list in Bekaa III.
Lebanese Democratic Party
Talal Arslan's LDP gained only one seat in the new parliament, held by Erslan himself, as all other Druze seats were won by candidates from or supported by the Progressive Socialist Party. In Beirut II, LDP had hoped to get Nasib Jawari included as the Druze candidate on the Amal-Hezbollah, but Jawari was not included and LDP withdrew his candidature. Likewise LDP withdrew its candidate from the race in the Bekaa II electoral district.
Independence Movement
The Moawad family's Independence Movement joined the FPM list in Zgharta.
Kulluna Watani Alliance
The civil society alliance behind the "Kulluna Watani" (We are all Patriots) ('Kulluna Watani') lists held a launching event on 9 April 2018 at Forum of Beirut. The alliance gathered with a new Political Party ("Sabaa") and 10 different campaign and groups, most of which are connected to campaigns started in the protest movements of 2015 or the municipal elections of 2016. The alliance included in addition to Sabaa which is a nationwide secular Political Party few local political groups, namely Libaladi in Beirut 1 and Lihaqqi in Mount Lebanon 4. Speaking at inauguration event, Charbel Nahas, whose party Citizens within a State joined the Koullouna Watani lists at a later stage, said the purpose of the lists was to provide an alternative to the "corrupted" power in Lebanese politics. Koullouna Watani's electoral lists included 66 candidates running in 9 voting districts with one third of the candidates being from Sabaa. The nine lists were fielded in Beirut I, Bekaa I, all four electoral districts of Mount Lebanon, North II, North III and South III.
Ramgavar
The Armenian Democratic Liberal Party, or Ramgavar, issued a statement on 18 April 2018 condemning any candidate that opposed the unified Armenian parliamentary bloc. In Beirut I, Ramgavar candidates joined the list of Lebanese Forces, Kataeb and Michel Pharaon. One of its candidates is Dr. Avedis Dakassian, the Chair of the Lebanon Regional Committee of the party. In Metn, a Ramgavar candidate joined the list of Lebanese Forces.
Rifi Bloc
Ashraf Rifi, former Hariri ally, Internal Security Forces chief and Justice Minister, broke ranks with Hariri in 2016. In the 2016 Tripoli municipal election, he defeated Hariri's candidates and won 22 out of 24 seats. He fielded his own lists in the parliamentary election, in a move to challenge Hariri's dominance over Sunni politics. Ahead of the elections he profiled himself as a "hawk", unwilling to enter into talks with Hezbollah.
Rifi fielded lists in three electoral districts; Beirut II, North I and North II. Rifi tried to field a list in Bekaa I together with Kataeb and Lebanese Forces, but the initiative did not bear fruit. Likewise, Lebanese Forces and Rifi discussed a joint list in Bekaa III, but no such list materialized.
Syrian Social Nationalist Party
The Syrian Social Nationalist Party in Lebanon fielded 7 candidates. In Mount Lebanon II (Metn) it joined the list of the Free Patriotic Movement. In Mount Lebanon IV (Aley-Chouf) it joined the list of Talal Arslan. In Bekaa I (Zahle) it joined the list of Nicolas Fattouch. In Bekaa III and South III SSNP candidates were included in the Amal-Hezbollah lists. In North I (Akkar) its candidate was included in the list of 8 March forces. In North III the SSNP entered the list of Boutros Harb and the Marada Movement.
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Tashnag)
On 22 March 2018 the Armenian Revolutionary Federation, or Tashnag, announced its candidates in Beirut I and Mount Lebanon II (Metn). The party contested three seats in Beirut I and fielded incumbent parliamentarian Hagop Pakradounian in Metn. In Beirut I the party entered in alliance with FPM, Hunchaks and the Future Movement. In Metn the party entered in an alliance with FPM and SSNP.
In Bekaa I (Zahle) Tashnaq opted to support the candidature of Marie-Jeanne Bilezikjian, pharmacist and women's rights activist, on the joint FPM-Future list. The support for Bilezikjian's candidature was part of a wider agreement between Tashnaq and the Future Movement.
Candidates
After the deadline on 26 March 2018, the Ministry of Interior and Municipalities announced that 77 lists, with a total of 583 candidates, had been registered. The highest number of lists was in Beirut II, where nine lists were registered. Only two lists were registered in the Zahrani-Tyre electoral district. Notably, the erstwhile 8 March and 14 March blocs, which had dominated the 2009 elections, are no longer functional and parties sought alliances on local dynamics when setting up lists.
A record number of Lebanese women running for office. In fact, out of the total 976 candidates who originally registered to run, 111 were female candidates – a staggering surge compared to just 12 women in 2009.
International voting
During the elections 82,965 people registered to vote, 61.6% were males and 38.4% were females, however 46,799(56.4%) actually voted.
Diaspora results by party
The report found that the countries with the most voters registered in, those in North America, Australia, France, and the United Arab Emirates, mostly supported Lebanese Forces, Marada and FPM lists and candidates. Meanwhile, Amal and Hezbollah received the most votes in Germany and Africa. The report also found large support for the Future Movement in Saudi Arabia.
Results
In a statement issued in the evening of 7 May, Interior Minister Nohad Machnouk promised to release full election result within 36–48 hours. In his statement, he announced "final, yet incomplete" official results, providing the names of elected parliamentarians from 14 out of 15 electoral districts. On 8 May, Machnouk announced the names of the victorious candidates from Akkar.
Following the announcement of results, the FPM leader Gebran Bassil stated that FPM would form the largest bloc in parliament (a role previously played by the Future Movement). Bassil stated that FPM would gather up to 30 MPs, including Talal Arslan, Tashnaqs and "businessmen".
Results by alliance and parties
Disclaimer: This listing uses a narrow definition of party votes, the preference votes cast for identified party candidates. For an overview of the voting percentages of the lists supported by different parties, see "Results by lists" table below.
Results by lists
Result by candidate
Reactions
Domestic
Prime Minister Saad Hariri, commenting on the election result the day after the election, admitted that his Future Movement had lost 12 seats, but reaffirmed that "[t]hose who won in parliamentary elections are our partners in the principle of stability" and that he was satisfied with the outcome. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said the outcome was "a great moral and political victory for Hezbollah, which protects the country" and that "proportionality vote law offered all political factions the opportunity to represent themselves in the elections, mitigated the risks of exclusion from Lebanon’s political structure, and assured all sides that they will have a role in the administration." He further added: "The United States and some Persian Gulf states resorted to smear campaign in a bid to poison public opinion towards Hezbollah. Their efforts, however, ended in failure...No one in the world can target Hezbollah as it has firm support among various strata of the Lebanese society. Towns and cities in southern Lebanon have served as the resistance front in the face of threats being poised by the Israeli regime and terrorist groups. Enemies' plots to undermine Hezbollah popularity in those regions have yielded nothing...We must avoid any sectarian or inflammatory speech similar to those delivered before the elections if we want to avoid any conflict in the country."
International
– Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qassemi congratulated the Lebanese government and people. He added: "The Islamic Republic of Iran believes that the holding of peaceful elections under the current circumstances in the region is regarded as a big achievement in the democratic trend for all Lebanese people."
– Education Minister Naftali Bennett wrote on Twitter: "Hezbollah = Lebanon...[Israel] will not differentiate between the sovereign State of Lebanon and Hezbollah, and will view Lebanon as responsible for any action from within its territory."
and – According to Naharnet, the Emirati ambassador and the Saudi chargé d'affaires in Beirut issued a joint statement congratulating Samir Geagea on his electoral victory, after visiting him in Mearab, Mount Lebanon.
See also
Lebanese presidential election, 2014–2016
References
Lebanon
2018 in Lebanon
Election and referendum articles with incomplete results
Elections in Lebanon
General