Colour revolution

Colour revolution (sometimes coloured revolution) is a term used since early 2000s primarily to describe a series of often violent protests and accompanying (attempted or successful) changes of government and society that took place in post-Soviet states (particularly Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan) and Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. The aim of the colour revolutions was to establish Western-style liberal democracy in those countries and eliminate corruption. They were primarily triggered by the election results widely viewed as falsified. The colour revolutions were marked by the usage of the internet as a method of communication, as well as the strong role of non-governmental organizations in the protests.
Some of these movements have been successful in their goal of removing the government, such as the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia's Bulldozer Revolution (2000), Georgia's Rose Revolution (2003), Ukraine's Orange Revolution (2004) and Kyrgyzstan's Tulip Revolution (2005). They have been described by political scientists Valerie Jane Bunce and Seva Gunitsky as a "wave of democracy," between the Revolutions of 1989 and the 2010–2012 Arab Spring.
The role of the United States in the colour revolutions has been a subject of significant controversy, and critics have accused the United States of orchestrating these revolutions to expand its influence.
Critics of these movements share the view that colour revolutions are the "product of machinations by the United States and other Western powers" and constitute unlawful interference in the internal affairs of sovereign countries. "Colour revolution" has also been used as a pejorative term to refer to protests, which opponents may feel that foreign nations unduly influence.
Background
Student movements
The first of these was Otpor! ('Resistance!') in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, founded at Belgrade University in October 1998 and began protesting against Miloševic during the Kosovo War. Most of them were already veterans of anti-Milošević demonstrations such as the 1996–97 protests and the 9 March 1991 protest. Many of its members were arrested or beaten by the police. Despite this, during the presidential campaign in September 2000, Otpor! launched its Gotov je (He's finished) campaign that galvanized Serbian discontent with Milošević and resulted in his defeat.
Members of Otpor! have inspired and trained members of related student movements, including Kmara in Georgia, PORA in Ukraine, Zubr in Belarus, and MJAFT! in Albania. These groups have been explicit and scrupulous in their non-violent resistance, as advocated and explained in Gene Sharp's writings.
Successful protests
Serbia
In the 2000 Yugoslavian general election, activists that opposed the government of Slobodan Milošević created a unified opposition and engaged in civic mobilization through get-out-the-vote campaigns. This approach had been used in other parliamentary elections in Bulgaria (1997), Slovakia (1998), and Croatia (2000). However, election results were contested with the Federal Election Commission announcing that opposition candidate Vojislav Koštunica had not received the absolute majority necessary to avoid a runoff election despite some political sources believing he had earned nearly 55% of the vote. Discrepencies in vote totals and the incineration of election documents by authorities lead the opposition alliance to accuse the government of electoral fraud.
Protests erupted in Belgrade, culminating in the overthrow of Slobodan Milošević. The demonstrations were supported by the youth movement Otpor!, some of whose members were later involved in revolutions in other countries. These demonstrations are usually considered to be the first example of the peaceful revolutions that followed in other former Soviet states. Despite the nationwide protesters not adopting a colour or a specific symbol, the slogan "Gotov je" become a defining symbol in retrospect, celebrating the success of the protests. The protests have come to be known as the Bulldozer Revolution due to the use of a wheel loader that protesters drove into the building used by Radio Television of Serbia, which was the main broadcast arm of Milošević's government.
Georgia
The Rose Revolution in Georgia, following the disputed 2003 election, led to the overthrow of Eduard Shevardnadze and replacing him with Mikhail Saakashvili after new elections were held in March 2004. The Kmara civic resistance movement supported the Rose Revolution.
Adjara
Following the Rose Revolution, the 2004 Adjara crisis (sometimes called "Second Rose Revolution" or "Mini-Rose Revolution") led to the exit of Chairman of the Government of Georgia's Adjaran Autonomous Republic Aslan Abashidze from office.
Ukraine
The Orange Revolution in Ukraine followed the disputed second round of the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election, leading to the annulment of the result and the repeat of the round—Leader of the Opposition Viktor Yushchenko was declared President, defeating Viktor Yanukovych. PORA supported the Orange Revolution.
Kyrgyzstan (2005)
The Tulip Revolution (sometimes called the "Pink Revolution") in Kyrgyzstan was more violent than its predecessors and followed the disputed 2005 Kyrgyz parliamentary election. At the same time, it was more fragmented than previous "colour revolutions". The protesters in different areas adopted the colours pink and yellow for their protests. This revolution was supported by the youth resistance movement KelKel.
Armenia
In 2018, a peaceful revolution was led by a member of parliament, Nikol Pashinyan in opposition to the nomination of Serzh Sargsyan as Prime Minister of Armenia, who had previously served as both President of Armenia and prime minister, eliminating term limits that would have otherwise prevented his 2018 nomination. Concerned that Sargsyan's third consecutive term as the most powerful politician in the government of Armenia gave him too much political influence, protests occurred throughout the country, particularly in Yerevan. However, demonstrations in solidarity with the protesters also occurred in other countries where the Armenian diaspora live. During the protests, Pashinyan was arrested and detained on 22 April, but he was released the following day. Sargsyan stepped down from the position of Prime Minister, and his Republican Party decided not to put forward a candidate. An interim Prime Minister was selected from Sargsyan's party until elections were held, and protests continued for over one month. Crowd sizes in Yerevan consisted of 115,000 to 250,000 people throughout the revolution, and hundreds of protesters were arrested. Pashinyan referred to the event as a Velvet Revolution. A vote was held in parliament, and Pashinyan became the Prime Minister of Armenia.
Unsuccessful protests
Belarus
In Belarus, there have been a number of protests against President Alexander Lukashenko, with participation from student group Zubr. One round of protests culminated on 25 March 2005; it was a self-declared attempt to emulate the Kyrgyzstan revolution and involved over a thousand citizens. However, police severely suppressed it, arresting over 30 people and imprisoning opposition leader Mikhail Marinich.
A second, much larger round of protests began almost a year later, on 19 March 2006, soon after the presidential election. Official results had Lukashenko winning with 83% of the vote; protesters claimed the results were achieved through fraud and voter intimidation, a charge echoed by many foreign governments. Protesters camped out in October Square in Minsk over the next week, calling variously for the resignation of Lukashenko, the installation of rival candidate Alaksandar Milinkievič, and new, fair elections.
The opposition originally used as a symbol the white-red-white flag of Belarus prior to 1995; the movement has had significant connections with that in neighbouring Ukraine. During the Orange Revolution, some white-red-white flags were seen being waved in Kyiv. During the 2006 protests, some called it the "Jeans Revolution" or "Denim Revolution," blue jeans being considered a symbol for freedom. Some protesters cut up jeans into ribbons and hung them in public places. It is claimed that Zubr was responsible for coining the phrase.
Lukashenko has said in the past: "In our country, there will be no pink or orange, or even banana revolution." More recently, he's said, "They [the West] think that Belarus is ready for some 'orange' or, what is a rather frightening option, 'blue' or 'cornflower blue' revolution. Such 'blue' revolutions are the last thing we need". On 19 April 2005, he further commented: "All these coloured revolutions are pure and simple banditry."
After the 2020 Belarusian presidential election, there were another wave of mass protests to challenge Lukashenko's authority. The protests started claiming fraud after incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko was re-elected. The main opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya declared herself the winner, saying that she won by a large margin. She then set up the “Coordination Council,” which was recognized as the legitimate interim government by the European Parliament. As of December 2020, some of the media states that the revolution failed and that Lukashenko managed to prevent a repeat of the Euromaidan.
Polish writer and publicist Tomasz Gryguć said that Alexand Lukashenko was "the world's first politician to defeat a color blitzkrieg".
Moldova
The opposition is reported to have hoped for and urged some kind of Orange revolution, similar to that in Ukraine, in the follow-up of the 2005 Moldovan parliamentary elections, while the Christian Democratic People's Party adopted orange for its colour in a clear reference to the events of Ukraine.
A name hypothesized for such an event was the "Grape Revolution" because of the abundance of vineyards in the country; however, such a revolution failed to materialize after the governmental victory in the elections. Many reasons have been given for this, including a fractured opposition and the fact that the government had already co-opted many of the political positions that might have united the opposition (such as a perceived pro-European and anti-Russian stance). Also, the elections themselves were declared fairer in the OSCE election monitoring reports than had been the case in other countries where similar revolutions occurred, even though the CIS monitoring mission strongly condemned them.
There was civil unrest all over Moldova following the 2009 Parliamentary election, owing to the opposition's assertion that the communists had fixed the election. Eventually, the Alliance for European Integration created a governing coalition that pushed the Communist party into opposition.
Russia
Protests started on 4 December 2011 in the Russian capital of Moscow against the results of the legislative election, leading to the arrests of over 500 people. On 10 December, protests erupted in tens of cities across the country; a few months later, they spread to hundreds both inside the country and abroad. The protests were described as "Snow Revolution". It derives from December—the month when the revolution had started—and from the white ribbons that the protesters wore.
The focus of the protests have been the ruling party, United Russia, and its leader Vladimir Putin, the current president, previous prime minister, and previous two-term president, who announced his intention to run again for President in 2012.
Role of the United States
The role of the United States in the colour revolutions has been a matter of significant controversy. British newspaper The Guardian accused the United States government, alongside the Freedom House non-governmental organization and George Soros' Open Society Foundations of organising the Orange Revolution as part of a broader campaign of regime change in Eastern Europe, also involving the overthrow of Milošević, the Rose Revolution, and unsuccessful attempts to contest the results of the 2001 Belarusian presidential election.
Opposition
International geopolitics scholars Paul J. Bolt and Sharyl N. Cross state that "Moscow and Beijing share almost indistinguishable views on the potential domestic and international security threats posed by colored revolutions, and both nations view these revolutionary movements as being orchestrated by the United States and its Western democratic partners to advance geopolitical ambitions."
In Russia
According to Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Russian military leaders view the "colour revolutions" as a "new US and European approach to warfare that focuses on creating destabilizing revolutions in other states as a means of serving their security interests at low cost and with minimal casualties."
Government figures in Russia, such as Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (in office from 2012) and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (in office from 2004), have characterized colour revolutions as externally-fuelled acts with a clear goal of influencing the internal affairs that destabilize the economy,
conflict with the law and represent a new form of warfare. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia must prevent any colour revolutions in Russia: "We see what tragic consequences the wave of so-called colour revolutions led to. For us, this is a lesson and a warning. We should do everything necessary so that nothing similar ever happens in Russia".
The 2015 presidential decree The Russian Federation's National Security Strategy cites foreign-sponsored regime change among "main threats to public and national security" including:
In the aftermath of the colour revolutions, the term "colour revolution" has been used as a pejorative term to refer to protests which are believed to be a result of influence by foreign countries. Euromaidan, the 2018 Armenian revolution, the 2019 protests in Georgia, the 2019–2020 Hong Kong protests, and the 2020–2021 Belarusian protests have been described by pro-Kremlin outlets as being "colour revolutions" aimed at destabilising the respective governments of each country.
In China
The 2015 policy white paper "China's Military Strategy" by the State Council Information Office said that "anti-China forces have never given up their attempt to instigate a 'color revolution' in this country."
Pattern of revolution
Michael McFaul identified seven stages of successful political revolutions common in colour revolutions:
A semi-autocratic rather than fully autocratic regime
An unpopular incumbent
A united and organized opposition
An ability to quickly drive home the point that voting results were falsified
Enough independent media to inform citizens about the falsified vote
A political opposition capable of mobilizing tens of thousands or more demonstrators to protest electoral fraud
Divisions among the regime's coercive forces.
See also
People power
Civil resistance
Revolutions of 1989
Arab Spring
Spring Revolutions (disambiguation)
Proriv, dissolved party in Transnistria which was inspired by Kmara and Otpor!
References
Further reading
Dawn Brancati: Democracy Protests: Causes, Significance, and Consequences. Cambridge University Press, 2016.
Donnacha Ó Beacháin and Abel Polese, eds. The colour Revolutions in the Former Soviet Republics: Successes and Failures. Routledge, 2010.
Valerie J. Bunce and Sharon L. Wolchik: Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries. Cambridge University Press, 2011
Valerie J. Bunce. (2017). The Prospects for a Color Revolution in Russia. Daedalus (journal).
Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way: Competitive Authoritarianism: Hybrid Regimes After the Cold War. Cambridge University Press, 2010
Pavol Demes and Joerg Forbrig (eds.). Reclaiming Democracy: Civil Society and Electoral Change in Central and Eastern Europe. German Marshall Fund, 2007.
Joerg Fobrig (Ed.): Revisiting Youth Political Participation: Challenges for research and democratic practice in Europe. Council of Europe, Publishing Division, Strasbourg 2005,
Adam Roberts and Timothy Garton Ash (eds.), Civil Resistance and Power Politics: The Experience of Non-violent Action from Gandhi to the Present, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009. . US edition. On Google
Joshua A. Tucker: Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and Post-Communist coloured Revolutions. 2007. Perspectives on Politics, 5(3): 537–553.
Michael McFaul, Transitions from Post Communism. July 2005. Journal of Democracy, 16(3): 5–19.
External links
Albert Einstein Institution, East Boston, Massachusetts
Central Asian Backlash Against US Franchised Revolutions Written by K. Gajendra Singh, India's former ambassador to Turkey and Azerbaijan from 1992 to 1996.
The Centre for Democracy in Lebanon
Hardy Merriman, The trifecta of civil resistance: unity, planning, discipline, 19 November 2010 at openDemocracy.net
Howard Clark civil resistance website
How Orange Networks Work
ICNC's Online Learning Platform for the Study & Teaching of Civil Resistance, Washington DC
International Center on Nonviolent Conflict (ICNC), Washington DC
Jack DuVall, "Civil resistance and the language of power", 19 November 2010 at openDemocracy.net
Michael Barker, Regulating revolutions in Eastern Europe: Polyarchy and the National Endowment for Democracy, 1 November 2006.
Oxford University Research Project on Civil Resistance and Power Politics
"Sowing seeds of democracy in post-soviet granite" – the future of democracy in post-Soviet states Written by Lauren Brodsky, a PhD candidate at the Fletcher School in Medford, Mass., focusing on US public diplomacy and the regions of Southwest and Central Asia.
Stellan Vinthagen, People power and the new global ferment, 15 November 2010 at openDemocracy.net
United 4 Belarus Campaign British campaign website drawing attention to the political situation in Belarus ahead of 2006 presidential elections.
21st-century revolutions
Nonviolent revolutions
Overthrow of Slobodan Milošević
Revolutionary waves