2022–2023 Lebanese presidential election

2022–2023 Lebanese presidential election
The 2022–2023 Lebanese presidential election is an ongoing indirect election to elect the president of Lebanon following the expiration of term-limited incumbent Michel Aoun's mandate on 31 October 2022. The outgoing president has served since 31 October 2016, following the end of the 2-year presidential crisis.
By convention, the presidency is always held by a Maronite Christian. Under article 49 of the Lebanese Constitution, a qualified majority of two-thirds of the members of the Lebanese Parliament is required to elect the president in the first round. If no candidate reaches that threshold, further rounds of election are held where an absolute majority of the members legally constituting the parliament is sufficient to elect the president. The incumbent president is not eligible for reelection until six years has passed since the expiration of his mandate, as per article 49 of the Lebanese Constitution.
Background
2019–21 protests
Large-scale anti-government demonstrations ignited in the country from 17 October. Initially triggered in response to a rise in gas and tobacco prices as well as a new tax on messaging applications, the demonstrations quickly turned into a revolution against the stagnation of the economy, unemployment, Lebanon's sectarian and hereditary political system, corruption and the government's inability to provide essential services such as water, electricity and sanitation, Saad Hariri ended up resigning on 29 October 2019.
Hassan Diab was appointed Prime Minister by President Michel Aoun on 19 December 2019. His government obtained the confidence of parliament by 69 votes in its favour.
However, the country's economic situation continued to deteriorate. The government was indebted to the tune of over 95 billion dollars by the end of 2020, the Lebanese pound records a loss of 70% of its value in six months and unemployment affects 35% of the active population. Riots break out in Beirut and Tripoli and Jounieh.
Beirut explosion
On 4 August 2020, the explosion of several thousand tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a hangar in the Port of Beirut caused considerable human and material damage across the city and the port. The final toll was 218 dead and over 7,000 injured and damage estimated at nearly four billion euros by the World Bank and estimated to have left 300,000 homeless. The industrial-port zone of the Port of Beirut's badly affected, further aggravating the economic situation. Vital for Lebanon, the port is the most important trading centres in Lebanon which ensures the transit of 60% of the country's imports.
The blast was so powerful that it physically shook the whole country of Lebanon. It was felt in Turkey, Syria, Palestine, Jordan, and Israel, as well as parts of Europe, and was heard in Cyprus, more than 240 km (150 mi) away. It was detected by the United States Geological Survey as a seismic event of magnitude 3.3 and is considered one of the most powerful accidental artificial non-nuclear explosions in history.
The Lebanese government declared a two-week state of emergency in response to the disaster. In its aftermath, protests erupted across Lebanon against the government for their failure to prevent the disaster, joining a larger series of protests which had been taking place across the country since 2019. On 10 August 2020, Prime Minister Hassan Diab and the Lebanese cabinet resigned.
The adjacent grain silos were badly damaged. In July and August 2022, part of the silos collapsed following a weeks-long fire in the remaining grain.
2022 parliamentary elections
In May 2022, Lebanon held its first election since a painful economic crisis dragged it to the brink of becoming a failed state. Lebanon's crisis has been so severe that more than 80 percent of the population is now considered poor by the United Nations. In the election Iran-backed Shia Muslim Hezbollah movement and its allies lost their parliamentary majority. Hezbollah did not lose any of its seats, but its allies lost seats. Hezbollah’s ally, President Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, was no longer the biggest Christian party after the election. A rival Christian party, led by Samir Geagea, with close ties to Saudi Arabia, the Lebanese Forces (LF), made gains. Sunni Future Movement, led by former prime minister Saad Hariri, did not participate the election, leaving a political vacuum to other Sunni politicians to fill.
Electoral system
The Constitution of Lebanon does not provide for a specific candidacy procedure. Therefore, no individuals can be deemed to be official candidates, but legally only express an interest in the position.
Under article 49 of the Lebanese Constitution, a qualified majority of two-thirds of the members of the Lebanese Parliament is required to elect the president in the first round. The quorum also amounts to two-thirds of the Parliament. In the second round, a President can be elected by a simple majority of 65 deputies. There is however ambiguity on the constitutionality of the two-thirds quorum, since constitutional texts do not explicitly mention it. Some have interpreted this omission as intentional, such as legal scholar Issam Khalifeh, while Speaker Nabih Berri has relied on the opposite interpretation to enable his allies to resort to quorum-busting. An example of this would be the 2014–2016 Lebanese presidential election, where quorum would not be met for forty-three electoral sessions.
The Constitution also states that, in the last ten days of the incumbent's tenure, the Parliament is vested in the powers of an electoral college.
National Pact
Access to the Lebanese presidency is subject to an informal agreement known as the National Pact. Agreed in 1943, the latter limits this office only to members of the Maronite Christian faith.
The National Pact is based on an unwritten agreement concluded in 1943 between the Maronite Christian president Bechara El Khoury and his Sunni prime minister Riad Al Solh when Lebanon gained independence from France. The pact stipulates that the President of the Republic must be a Maronite Christian, the Prime minister a Sunni Muslim and the Speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim.
Candidates
Declared interest
Bechara Abi Younes, candidate for the 2009 Lebanese general election, engineer and president of the Environmental Rescue party
Ziad Hayek, former head of the High Council for Privatization and public-private partnership (2006–2019), Lebanese nominee for president of the World Bank in 2019
Tracy Chamoun, daughter of Dany Chamoun and former ambassador of Lebanon to Jordan (2017–2020)
May Rihani, international development and gender scholar, Director of the Gibran Chair for Values and Peace at the University of Maryland, former UN co-chair of the United Nations Girls' Education Initiative (2008–2010)
Jean-Marie Kassab, author
Elias Tawileh, engineer
Milad Abou Malhab, activist
Sayed Boutros Franjieh, businessman
Elie Yachoui, Dean of the Business Administration and Economics faculty at the Notre Dame University–Louaize
Clarence Kattini, lawyer and activist
Other potential candidates
Kataeb Party
Samy Gemayel, MP (2009–present) and incumbent party leader (2015–present)
Nadim Gemayel, MP (2009–present)
Lebanese Forces
Samir Geagea, incumbent party leader (2005–present)
Sethrida Geagea, MP (2005–present) and former chairwoman of the party
Free Patriotic Movement
Gebran Bassil, MP (2018–present), incumbent party leader (2015–present) and former Minister of Telecommunications (2009–2009), Energy and Water (2009–2014) and Foreign Affairs (2014–2020)
Nada Boustani Khoury, MP (2022–present) and former Minister of Energy and Water (2019–2020)
Ibrahim Kanaan, MP (2005–present) and Chairman of the Parliamentary Budget and Financial Affairs Commission (2009–present)
Other
Suleiman Frangieh, incumbent leader of the Marada Movement (1992–present), former MP (1991–2005, 2009–2018) and Minister in different portfolios (1990–2005)
Joseph Aoun, 14th Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces (2017–present)
Naji Abi Assi, former Ambassador and presidential advisor
Ziyad Baroud, lawyer, professor and former Minister of Interior (2008–2011) and candidate for the 2018 Lebanese general election
Salah Honein, former MP (2000–2005) and member of the Qornet Shehwan Gathering
Chibli Mallat, international lawyer, professor and candidate for the aborted 2005–2006 presidential election
Neemat Frem, CEO of INDEVCO Group and MP (2018–present)
Jihad Azour, former Minister of Finance (2005–2008)
Samir Assaf, HSBC executive
Naji Boustany, lawyer, former Minister of Culture (2004–2005) and candidate for the 2018 Lebanese general election
Philippe Ziade, businessman and Honorary Consul of Lebanon in Nevada
Roger Dib, former Minister, member in the National Committee of Christian/Muslim Dialogue, director of the Near East Consulting Group
Farid Elias El-Khazen, former MP (2005–2018), Ambassador to the Holy See (2018–present)
Georges Khoury, former head of military intelligence in the Lebanese Armed Forces and Ambassador to the Holy See (2008–2018)
Farid El Boustany, surgeon and MP (2018–present)
Declined
Salim Eddé, CEO of Murex
Nassif Hitti, professor and former Minister of Foreign Affairs (2020)
Withdrawals
Michel Moawad, MP (2018–present) and incumbent leader of the Independence Movement (2005–present)
Issam Khalifeh, historian, academic at the Lebanese University and trade unionist, first president of the National Union of Lebanese University Students
Election
First session
The first electoral session was held on 29 September 2022. The first and only round did not result in any candidate's election, due to the need to secure an absolute majority of 86 votes. Notably, 10 MPs voted for "Lebanon" while one vote went to Mahsa Amini. Before the second round, a number of deputies unexpectedly left the Chamber, leading the assembly to lose the quorum by one MP and postponing the vote.
Second session
A second session was held on 13 October but failed to secure a quorum with only 71 out of 128 deputies being there due to FPM boycotting the session in memorial of 13 October 1990, below the quorum of 2/3 (86 deputies). A third one is scheduled for 20 October
Third session
A third session was held on 20 October. Michel Moawad received 42 votes, 55 MPs voted with a blank slip, one MP voted for Milad Abou Malhab. 17 MPs submitted ballots reading "New Lebanon", and one each for "Ruler, savior and reformer", "For Lebanon", "Righteous dictator" and "Nobody". The second round was once again cancelled as FPM deputies left the Chamber, causing the loss of the quorum. A fourth session is scheduled for 24 October.
Fourth session
The fourth session to elect a president was held on 24 October with the presence of 114 deputies. In the first (and only) round, Moawad received 39 votes, while 50 blank ballots were registered, and 10 votes for Dr. Issam Khalifeh, a reputable academic nominated by a number of pro-Change MPs. A number of MPs voted "New Lebanon" as in the previous session, while Jamil Al Sayyed wrote "My Condolences" on his ballot paper. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held.
Power vacuum
Michel Aoun signed the government's resignation decree, a day before his six-year term officially ended, and Prime Minister Najib Mikati's government remains in office in a caretaker capacity, which is unconstitutional since it goes against Aoun's request for the cabinet's step-down after numerous attempts failed to form a new cabinet. Aoun's term officially ended on 31 October 2022 after 6 years in office, with no successor designated, similarly to his predecessors.
Fifth session
The fifth session to elect a president was held on November 10 with the presence of 108 deputies. In the first (and only) round, Moawad received 44 votes, while 47 blank ballots were registered, 6 votes for Dr. Issam Khalifeh, a reputable academic nominated by a number of pro-Change MPs, 1 vote for former Minister Ziyad Baroud from Deputy Speaker Elias Bou Saab and 1 vote for Ziad Hayek from Elias Jaradeh. 7 MPs voted "New Lebanon" as in the previous session, while Zgharta MP Michel Douaihy wrote "Plan B" on his ballot paper and one vote went "For Lebanon". As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held.
Sixth session
The sixth session to elect a president was held on November 17 with the presence of 112 deputies. In the first (and only) round, Moawad received 43 votes, while 46 blank ballots were registered, 7 votes for Dr. Issam Khalifeh, 1 vote for former Minister Ziyad Baroud, 1 vote for MP Michel Daher and 1 vote for Suleiman Frangieh Jr. 9 MPs voted "New Lebanon" while 2 ballots were cancelled. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held, a seventh session is scheduled for Thursday 24 November.
Seventh session
The seventh session to elect a president was held on 24 November. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held. The next session will be held in early December 2022.
Eighth session
The eighth session to elect a president was held on 1 December 2022. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held. Another session will be held on 8 December.
Ninth session
The ninth session to elect a president was held on 8 December 2022. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held. Another session will be held on 15 December.
Tenth session
The tenth session to elect a president was held on 15 December 2022. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held. Another session will be held in January 2023. The session scheduled for 12 January 2023 was postponed by the speaker due to the death of Hussein El-Husseini.
Eleventh session
The eleventh session to elect a president was held on 19 January 2023. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held. After the election two MPs from the Change Movement locked themselves in parliament in protest.
Standoff
After the eleventh electoral session, Speaker Nabih Berri announced he would hold off of calling a twelfth session to elect a President unless he sees what he deems as "a sort of agreement" on a candidate. In response, Change MPs, joined by multiple parties, called for consecutive and successive ballots to be held until a President is chosen. Two reformist deputies, Melhem Khalaf and Najat Saliba, staged a sit-in in the Chamber of Deputies until a new session is held. As of June 14, 2023, the sit-in is still ongoing for its 147th consecutive day.
In early June, the United States declared that it was thinking about imposing sanctions on individuals who had interfered with the election. Speaker Nabih Berri, who hadn't summoned a session since January, may have been referenced in this statement. Berri released a statement the next day in which he absolved himself of all blame for the obstruction. The international community has urged Lebanon to pick a new president and carry out the reforms necessary to secure a financial bailout arrangement on numerous occasions.
Hezbollah and the Amal Movement have announced their endorsement for Suleiman Frangieh in the upcoming ballots. In parallel, an initiative led by independent MP Ghassan Skaff culminated in talks between opposition parties, taking advantage of the growing rift between the Free Patriotic Movement and Hezbollah and the warming of Syrian-Gulf diplomatic relations. With the support of Maronite Patriarch Bechara Boutros al-Rahi, it was announced in late May 2023 that the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb, the FPM and the PSP had agreed to endorse the candidacy of IMF economist and former Minister of Finance Jihad Azour for the role of President.
Twelfth session
The twelfth session to elect a president was held on 14 June 2023. No candidate obtained a majority in the first round. As per the previous sessions, quorum was lost before a second round could be held after only 81 MPs remained in the room. However, Nabih Berri's choice of not conducting a second round was controversial since there had been a greater consensus between the MPs unlike the sessions before. It was also argued by numerous MPs that the round should have been cancelled or ballots recounted since the votes cast did not match the MPs present in the session. In that round, economist Jihad Azour received 59 votes, 51 votes for Suleiman Frangieh, 6 votes for former Interior Minister Ziyad Baroud, 1 vote for military general Joseph Aoun and 1 blank vote. 8 MPs voted "New Lebanon" while 1 ballot for controversial businessman and contractor Jihad Al Arab was cancelled as he is a Sunni Muslim. Finally, 1 ballot was counted as lost, before being granted to Ziyad Baroud.
Development
Qatar declared support for Joseph Aoun's during a visit by officials as they vowed to support the army with financial and military aid, the United States also followed with support. A 5-nation group was formed by the Doha envoy which involved the United States, France, KSA, and Egypt to hold talks and solve the presidential vacancy in Lebanon most countries affirmed its support for the election of Joseph Aoun. Despite this Aoun said during a meeting with a delegation from the Press Syndicate when asked about his candidacy, “I don't care about it, it doesn't concern me, no one has discussed it with me and I haven't discussed it with anyone”. Aoun's possible candidacy was first raised by Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea in July 2022 who suggested that he would make a good successor to Michel Aoun.
On 7 June 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron named Jean-Yves Le Drian as his personal envoy for Lebanon to end the political deadlock.
See also
2022 Lebanese general election
2022 Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament election
President of Lebanon
Lebanese liquidity crisis
References
Lebanon
Presidential election
Elections in Lebanon
Presidential election
Presidential elections in Lebanon