The Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) and SLCF Inventories October 11, 2021 Joint IPCC Expert Meeting on SLCF Steven J Smith (and CEDS project team) Joint Global Change Research Institute, PNNL ssmith@pnnl.gov PNNL is operated by Battelle for the U.S. Department of Energy verview ▷ CEDS intro and methodology > CEDS products and software ▷ CEDS current and future work > SLCF Context and considerations
Funding for CEDS provided by: Collaborators and contributors: B. McDonald, R. Andres, T. Bond, M. Crippa, L. Dawidowski, V. Fioletov, G. Janssens-Maenhout, Z. Klimont, J. Kurokawa, C. Li, M. Li , F. Liu, L. Liu, E.  McDuffie, C. McLinden, Z. Wang, Q. Zhang The US Department of Energy Office of Science and The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Composition: Modeling and Analysis Program (ACMAP) 2
▪  Annual estimates of anthropogenic emissions (not open burning) to latest full year. ▪  Seasonal cycle (monthly), speciated NMVOCs ▪ Gridded emissions (0.5°, also downscaled to 0.1°) ▪ Readily updated every year. ▪ Uncertainty estimated at the same level (in progress)
Goals/Approach
Consistent extrapolation over time (prevent spurious discontinuities) . Community data review: aggregate (country, sector, ...) & gridded . Release both data and data system . Facilitate cross-country comparison (EF consistency, trends) . Transparent emission results (assumptions -> emissions) . CEDS uses a “Tier 1/2 like” methodology for its default emissions estimate (adjusted where necessary to better match country data), which is then scaled to match country level data (which often uses higher tier methods).

CMIP6 Data Release
. CEDS historical emissions data used for CMIP6 and follow-on research in the US and around the world ▪ CEDS emissions were the calibration/harmonized starting point for future scenarios used in CMIP6 ▪ CEDS gridding routines were adapted to develop open-source software for CMIP6 future gridded emissions
Updated Data to 2019
▪   CEDS v_2021_04_21 aggregate (country, sector/country, fuel/country) and gridded emissions data (Note: IEA energy consumption data is extended forward using BP energy statistics.)
CEDS Data System
◾  The CEDS data system is open source (e.g., used by McDuffie et al. 2020, to produce updated data with different sector/fuel resolution for use in Global Burden of Disease – GDB  analysis) . Using the data system allows access to full fuel, sector, country data plus the ability to update any emissions assumptions. Most updates involve no or minimal coding. ▪ CEDS data system currently requires purchase of IEA energy statistics ◾ We are exploring a fully open source option that uses UN energy statistics (1990 forward). Would this be helpful for country-level inventory development? 5
Non-combustion sectors largely follow EDGAR categories 1A1a_Electricity-public 1A3di_International-shipping 1A3di_Oil_Tanker_Loading 1A3dii_Domestic-navigation 2D_Paint-application 2D3  Chemical-products-manufacture- processing 1A1a_Electricity-autoproducer 1A1a_Heat-production 2D3_Other-product-use 1A1bc  Other-transformation 1A2a  Ind-Comb-Iron-steel 1A3eii  Other-transp 2H_Pulp-and-paper-food-beverage-wood 2L_Other-process-emissions 1A4a_Commercial-institutional 1A4b Residential 1A2b_Ind-Comb-Non-ferrous-metals 3B  Manure-management 3D_Rice-Cultivation 1A2c_Ind-Comb-Chemicals 1A4c_Agriculture-forestry-fishing 1A2d Ind-Comb-Pulp-paper 1A2e  Ind-Comb-Food-tobacco 1A5  Other-unspecified 3D_Soil-emissions 1B1 Fugitive-solid-fuels 3E  Enteric-fermentation 1A2f_Ind-Comb-Non-metalic-minerals 1B2_Fugitive-petr 3l_Agriculture-other 1B2b_Fugitive-NG-distr 1B2b_Fugitive-NG-prod 5A Solid-waste-disposal 5C  Waste-incineration 1A2g  Ind-Comb-mining-quarying 1A2g_Ind-Comb-other 1B2d  Fugitive-other-energy 5D_Wastewater-handling 2A1_Cement-production 5E  Other-waste-handling 1A2g_Ind-Comb-textile-leather 1A2g_Ind-Comb-transpequip 1A2g_Ind-Comb-wood-products 2A2  Lime-production 6A_Other-in-total 2A6_Other-minerals 7A  Fossil-fuel-fires 2B_Chemical-industry 7BC_Indirect-N2O-non-agricultural-N 2B2   Chemicals-Nitric-acid 1A3ai  International-aviation 1A3aii  Domestic-aviation 2B3_Chemicals-Adipic-acid 1A3b_Road 2C_Metal-production 2D_Degreasing-Cleaning 1A3c_Rail Are adding more detail Combustion sectors largely follow IEA categories CEDS Sectors
Add additional sectoral detail
Update time series to 2020
Produce uncertainty estimates
▪  Breakout as explicit sectors: refineries, coke production, charcoal production, dif types of metal smelting. Add explicit point sources (more accurate gridded data with higher spatial resolution) ▪  Add point source emission time series w/ spatial location using satellite and other data (perhaps also alter spatial distribution for NOx-related sectors) ▪  2020 emissions will reflect COVID-19-related changes in energy consumption ▪ Seasonal distribution of emissions will be different. Aim to incorporate this. ▪ Submit paper documenting new data releases ▪  Uncertainty ensembles focusing on SO2, BC, OC ▪  Expand on analysis of uncertainty in the last few years of the estimate

Collaboration welcome!
▪ Very much appreciate the collaboration of the GAINS and EDGAR teams Many aspects can be improved. We welcome additional data and co-authors. Sectoral or regional or country focus. New species could also be added. . Feedback and participation through several means GitHub: https://github.com/JGCRI/CEDS (Links to new data releases here!) . Zenodo CEDS Community: https://zenodo.org/communities/ceds/ . GMD CEDS article: https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/11/369/2018/gmd-11-369- 2018.html : ERL energy data uncertainty article: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaebc3 . CMIP6 gridded data download:  https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/ search by institution = PNNL-JGCRI . . General project page: http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/CEDS/ . Sign up for the listserv - listserv@listserv.umd.edu .
From: Smith, S.J., E. McDuffie, & M. Charles (2021) Accounting for Emissions: Inventories for Climate Forcers and Air Pollutants (in prep)
From: Smith, S.J., E. McDuffie, & M. Charles (2021) Accounting for Emissions: Inventories for Climate Forcers and Air Pollutants (in prep)
Final Thoughts
● Harmonizing sector categories is not always easy – there can be substantial differences between data sources ○  Example, US energy data (both EIA and IEA) use different sector definitions than US emission inventory data. ○ Some problematic sectors in general: construction, residential, commercial, agriculture, shipping/fishing ●   Need data (not estimates) for traditional biomass fuel use in many countries ● Make sure incentive structures (including reporting requirements) do not direct effort into activities that detract from creating the data most needed for in-country use ○  For some countries, a fine-scale GHG inventory might be less useful than improved understanding of major drivers of air pollutant emissions (non-compliant vehicles, traditional biomass consumption, structure of informal industries, etc. ) ● Existing scientific inventories that provide data at a country level (EDGAR, CEDS) can be used to compare against country efforts. (and GAINS at regional level land for some countries) ●  Need better mechanisms for country-level data (from scientific literature, grey literature, or official inventories) to feed back into scientific inventories. We do this for CEDS, but there is certainty additional information out there that could be incorporated to improve the quality of the inventory.