Environmental and energy implications of selected scenarios in Thailand Ram M. Shrestha, Sunil Malla and Migara  Liyanage Asian Institute of Technology Pathumthani, Thailand 13 December 2006 EMF22: Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilization and in Transition, 12-14 December 2006, Tsukuba, Japan. Background UTE OF TECHNOLOGY
Thailand is the second largest economy in ASEAN. Source: IEA (2004)
AAGR(1990-2004): CO₂ emissions: Energy use: GDP: 6.6% 6.4% 4.8% 1.1% Population: • Thailand is one of the fast growing economies in South-east Asia. • Heavy and growing dependence on fossil fuels (share: 65% in 1990 and 83% in 2004) • Per capita CO, emission doubled during 1990-2004. lex (1990 * TECHNOLOGY
1990: 45 Mtoe ■ Total primary energy supply: 1990: 65% ■ Share of fossil fuels: 2004: 99 Mtoe 2004: 83%
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• In last five years, over 50% of the total net energy requirement was imported. • In 2005, energy import accounted for 9.6% of total GDP (US$17billion).
✦— China  — India  — Japan  — X— Thailand  — World  — OECD
Note: Energy intensity is in kgoe/US$ and carbon intensity is in kg of CO ⁄ US$ using 1995 prices and PPP. Source: IEA (2004) • Both primary energy- and carbon- intensities in Thailand increasing in recent years. TECHNOLOGY Energy and emissions under selected Medium/long term scenarios ■ Model Used: AIM/Enduse -Thailand ■ Time horizon: 2000 – 2050 ■ No explicit climate intervention policies ■ New and emerging technologies considered ■ Key scenario drivers: □ Economic growth □ Population growth □ energy efficiency improvements
They include: ■ Power Sector - Cleaner coal technologies with and w/o CCS - RETs—BIGCC, solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, biogas, MSW - CC ■ Transport Sector - Biofuels (gasohol and biodiesel) - Hybrid vehicles - Fuel cell cars
TA1 —■ TA2 —■ TB1 —X—TB2 Dominance of f ossil fuels in the primary energy mix: 2000: 81% 2050: 95% (Global market case (TA1)) to 87% (Local stewardship (TB2))
– TA1  — ∞  TA2  — ∞  TB1  — × — TB2 In the reference scenario (TA2), annual CO₂ emissions in 2050 (1088 Mt) would be 930 Mt more than in 2000 (158 Mt).
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During 2000 - 205 :
■ Industry  ■ Power  ■ Transport  ■ Others* * Others includes residential, commercial and agriculture. Industry sector - the largest contributor to total CO, emissions after 2020, followed by power, transport and others sectors. TECHNOLOGY

In 2050:
• NOx: Transport sector to contribute 51% of total NO x emissions, followed by industry, power and others. • SO2: Power sector to contribute 53% of total SO₂ emissions, followed by industry, transport and others. • Power sector overtaking the industry sector after 2010. * Others includes residential, commercial and agriculture. 150HNOLOGY
■ Coal ■ Natural gas  ■ Biomass  ■ CCS*  ■ Others** * CCS is carbon capture and storage and ** others includes hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, MSW and biogas. . In 2050, coal and natural gas contribute more than 70% of total electricity generation under all scenarios. •  In reference case: • CCS technologies based electricity generation would be cost-effective after 2020. • Role of RETs remain low (7% in 2050) due to limited domestic resource availability and the high cost of PV and thermal based solar power generation. ITE OF TECHNOLOGY Effects of CO₂ emission reduction target   (2000-2035)
■ Time horizon: 200 – 2035 Start year for CO, emission reduction: 2013 (Post-Kyoto)

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□ Biomass  ■ Coal  □ Oil  □ Natural gas  ■ Renewables •  Coal use decreases and  use of Natural gas and REs increase with ER targets. •  Reductions  in the coal use under ER15 about the same as under  ER10 due to the selection of  CCS coal based technologies in ER15. •  Total cumulative final energy demand to decrease by  1.8% in ER5 to 3.8% in ER15 due to the use of more efficient technologies. •  Highest % reduction in Transport sector final energy demand, followed by reductions in industry and residential sectors. Sector-wise contribution to cumulative CO 2 emission reduction under
Power sector the largest contributor to the total CO₂ emission reduction.
■ NOx ■ SO2 •  Under ER15, SO 2 emission would be reduced by  41% • NO x emission would be reduced by 10%. TECHNOLOGY
Biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel) would contribute about 6 to 7% of the road-transport energy needs. No change in biofuel shares in ER cases due to limited domestic production potential.
In 2035 (%):
◾ Hybrid cars and fuel cell vehicles among the cost effective options under ER targets
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Power generation technologies with CCS considered:
● Lignite  ● Bituminous coal  ● Natural gas ■ Significant increase in electricity generation from CCS based technologies in ER5, ER10 and ER15 cases ( 2, 5 and 6 times respectively of that in Base case). ◾ Largest % increase in power generation from Lignite based CCS plant. ■ Bituminous coal and natural gas based CCS technologies  play increasing role in electricity generation under higher ER targets. TECHNOLOGY
Percentage increase in the use of hydrogen energy in ER cases: ■ ER5 18%
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■To increase the contribution of commercial renewable energy to the total primary energy demand from 0.5% in 2003 to 8% by 2011 (5% RPS for the power sector); ■To produce/use  biodiesel at the level of  8.5 million liter/day by 2012 and ethanol at the level of  3 million liter/day by 2011.
Source: MOE, 2003

Fossil fuels would remain dominant energy source (95% in 2050 in the reference case). With ER targets □ CCS technologies in power sector would play a significant role after 2020. □  Hydrogen based electricity generation  cost-effective in ER15 after 2030. ■ Limited role of new and renewables (e.g., biomass, wind, geothermal and solar) due to limited domestic resource availability and/or high initial investment costs. Biofuels would make significant contribution to meeting road-transport energy needs (6-7%) with the present level of biofuels production potential. For sustainable energy future, additional options may have to be considered: □  Use of nuclear energy □  Land use change and increase in biofuels production □ Energy efficiency improvements in building □ Regional energy cooperation ◾ Hydro import (Laos, Myanmar) ◾ Natural gas import (Myanmar)? ■ ■ THANK YOU. UTE OF TECHNOLOGY
♦ China  -●— India  — Japan  — Thailand  — World  — OECD
Source: IEA (2004) TECHNOLOGY