JISF Long-term vision for climate change mitigation “A challenge towards carbon neutral steel” February 2024 - revised The Japan Iron and Steel Federation
Background
In November 2014, the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) announced the "Commitment to a Low Carbon Society Phase II" with the target year of 2030. This plan is also reflected in Japan's NDC (2030 target) based on the Paris Agreement, and each member of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation is making constant efforts to achieve it. The Paris Agreement invites all Parties to formulate and submit a “long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies” to achieve the long-term goal. Japanese government established the “national long-term development strategies based on the Paris agreement”. In response to such domestic and international movements, in addition to the continuous efforts to achieve the "Commitment to a Low Carbon Society Phase II", the Japan Iron and Steel Federation formulated the “JISF long term vision for climate change mitigation” for 2030 and beyond, which aims to realize the “carbon neutral steel”. In February 2021, JISF declared that it "supports Japanese government's ambitious policy of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, and it will boldly take up the challenge of achieving carbon neutrality in order to contribute to the government's goal. In addition, JISF revised “JISF’s commitment to a Low Carbon Society” to the "JISF’s Carbon Neutrality Action Plan", updated the Phase II target (FY2030 target), and amended the "JISF long-term vision for climate change mitigation". Behind these developments are discussions on strengthening efforts under the Paris Agreement to change the 2°  C target to a 1.5°  C target, and the Japanese government's formulation of a carbon neutrality policy for the year 2050. © The Japan Iron & Steel Federation, All Rights Reserved. 1
[Preparation Policy] ● The scope is from 2030 to 2100 ● It assumes global actions ● It is to offer a direction towards achieving Paris Agreement long- term goal ● It is to be in line with the ongoing “JISF’s Commitment to a Low Carbon Society” (now updated to “"JISF’s Carbon Neutrality Action Plan") ● It is to be consistent with the national project being executed (Green Innovation Fund etc.) [Framework] Part 1: Forecast of future steel demand and supply Part 2: Long-term climate change mitigation scenarios Part 3: Challenges of JISF for long-term climate change mitigation
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Part 1: Forecast of Future Steel Demand and Supply Paris A el ememt Jackn promoting teel demand
The future supply and demand of steel was estimated from the relationship between past economic growth and steel stock at a macro level. For this purpose, we analyzed the past trend of Japan's performance, which is backed by reliable data, and aligned the results with those from overseas researches. The per capita steel stock in 1958 was only 1 t/person, but after going through the high economic growth period in the 1960's, it reached 4 t/person in 1973. 15 years later (1988) it reached 7t/person, and in another 15 years (2003), it reached 10 t/person. During this time, the rate of steel accumulation has been +0.2t/person/year. After that, with the economic maturity of society, the accumulation of steel has been moderate (+0.06t/person/year). The total amount of current iron and steel stock is 1.41 billion t (FY 2021), which is 11.2 t/person.
© The Japan Iron & Steel Federation, All Rights Reserved.

There is a certain correlation between economic growth and the amount of steel stock per capita, and as the population increases, the total stock amount expands. The steel stocks in developed countries are estimated to be in the range of 8 to 12 t/person, and it is estimated that the steel stock will reach 10 tons per person in China in the first half of this century and in India during this century. Relationship between GDP per capita and steel stock Muller, et.al, "Patterns of Iron Use in Societal Evolution", Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45 Transition of steel stock per capita stainable steel: at the core of a green economy", World eel Association, 2012 Note: The above results are cumulative values based on "Apparent Crude Steel Consumption" and do not reflect the increase or decrease due to indirect imports and exports
[Calculation assumptions] a)  Steel stock per capita 2015:4.0t/person (actual data) 2050:7.0t/person (assumed) 2100: 10.0t/person (assumed) b)  Population World Population Prospects2017, UN C) Diffusion and loss 0.1% of the total steel stock was assumed to be diffused or lost. d)  The rate of scrap generation internal scrap: 12.5% of total crude steel production (2015 actual data) d-1) manufacturing scrap: 9.3% of total steel products shipped out (2015 actual data) d-2) end-of-life scrap: assumed to increase gradually from 0.8% of total steel stock in 2015 (actual data) → d-3) 1.5%  in 2050→ 2.0% in 2100. e)  Yield ratio of crude steel to iron source Yield ratio of crude steel to iron source was set as 91% (2015 actual data) for both pig iron and scrap
[crude steel production] increase as the steel demand increases [scrap] its use increases mainly as a result of increased generation of end-of-life scrap due to expansion of the amount of total steel stock. [pig iron production] As scrap alone can not meet steel demand and production from the natural resource route is essential for the expansion of steel stock, almost the same level of pig iron production as currently required will be required at the end of this century
Part 2: Long-term Climate Change Mitigation Scenarios for Steel Industry
BAU (Business as Usual) scenario
Only Scrap ratio in iron source increases due to increase in scrap generation while technical level stays at the current status. BAT (Best Available Technologies) maximum introduction scenario Maximize the diffusion of existing advanced energy saving technologies (CDQ,TRT etc.) to the world by 2050. IEA ETP 2014 assumes that the reduction potential by international diffusion of BAT is 21%. Innovative technologies maximum introduction scenario The innovative technologies currently being developed (COURSE50: hydrogen- reduction portion, ferro coke, etc) will be introduced at the maximum level from 2030 to 2050. Additional development of innovative technologies scenario With the introduction of innovative technologies (hydrogen-reduction, CCS, CCU etc.) and the achievement of zero emission of the grid power supply, it is assumed that “carbon neutral steel" will be realized in 2100.
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Requirement of hydrogen for 1 ton of pig-ironmaking reduction:601Nm³ + compensation for endothermic reaction : 67Nm³ + heat to make molten iron of 1600°C : 85Nm³ =   753Nm³/ton of (theoretical) ⇒ around 1000Nm³/ton with assuming process efficiency of 75% The above is the amount required for iron ore reduction; hydrogen reduction ironmaking requires more hydrogen (+ few hundred Nm³) to supplement the by-product gases, since no by-product gases are generated by hydrogen steelmaking
Quantitative aspects
The amount of hydrogen required for producing pig iron in hydrogen- reduction in 2100: 1.2 trillion Nm³/year. Assuming 4.5kWH/Nm³-H² production, 5.4 trillion kWH is needed for hydrogen production and more for transportation, liquefaction, storage etc.
Economic aspects
Estimation of hydrogen price equivalent for carbon reduction iron-making; Assuming $200/t-coal and 700kg-coal/pig-iron, coal cost is $140/t-pig iron Assuming 55% of thermic value of coal is consumed for reduction (another 45% becomes by-product gases), the cost of reducing agent is $77/t-pig iron ($140/t-pig iron x 0.55). The equivalent cost of hydrogen ($77/t-pig iron / 1000Nm³-H₂/t-pig iron) becomes 7.7 ¢ /Nm³-H²

IEA-ETP 2017 2DS assumes :
By 2060,
a) zero emission from the electricity sector
b) 30% emission reduction from the industry sector
Calculation Assumptions ● Emission factor from gird electricity : combined average from IGES GRID EF v10.2 ● Grid electricity intensity in BF-BOF route: 140kWH/t-s (2016 average of Japan) ● Grid electricity intensity in EAF route: 872kWH/t-s (2016 average of Japan) ●  CO₂ emission factor in BF-BOF route: 2.4t- CO₂ /t-s ●  CO, emission factor in EAF route: 1.0t- CO, /t-s ● Yield of crude steel against iron source: 0.91 (both natural resource route and scrap route) When zero emission from the electricity sector is achieved, emission 4.6 from grid electricity consumed in steel production process will becomes zero. 3.7 Topping this with the effect of maximum implementation of BAT and the effect of COURSE50 (hydrogen- 2.6 reduction) from the Maximum 9 Introduction of Innovative 2.3 Technologies Scenario, the emissionタlevel in 2060 comes near the 30% 1.7 reduction presented in the IEA-ETP 2017 2DS. Furthermore, when the CCS effect of COURSE50 is added, the scenario shows almost 50% 2060 reduction by 2060. Part 3: Challenges of JISF for Long-term Climate Change Mitigation
● “Three ecos” and development of innovative technologies serves as the basis also for the long-term climate change mitigation strategy beyond 2030. ● In consideration of the long-term target (1.5 degrees C target) under the Paris Agreement, development of super-innovative technologies beyond existing steel production technologies is required. Eco Process Efficiency improvement of production process Eco Product Contribution   through supplying high- performance steel products required in a low- carbon society Eco Solution Contribution at a global level through diffusion of  advanced energy efficient technologies Innovative Technologies COURSE50, ferro coke, SuperCOURSE50, carbon recycling blast furnace, H, reduction iron making, Large EAF
The Japanese Steel Industry is diligently pursuing the development of innovative ironmaking technologies such as COURSE50 and ferro coke to realize practical application by 2030. When these technologies are put to practical use, they are expected to reduce CO, emissions of natural resource routes by 10% (excluding CCS effect). It is necessary to advance the establishment of low carbon technologies on the premise of blast furnace use, since the blast furnace method is considered to be the mainstream of the steel manufacturing method in the meantime, both technically and economically. However, these efforts alone cannot reach the long-term target level of the Paris, and "super innovation technologies" beyond them are necessary. The Japanese Iron and Steel Industry will, using the knowledge gained from the development of COURSE50 and ferro coke as a foothold, challenge to develop technologies that will ultimately achieves carbon neutrality from ironmaking process, including iron reduction technologies using hydrogen, CCS and CCU. The practical application of hydrogen-reduction ironmaking process is premised that hydrogen is developed and maintained as a common energy carrier for the society, as it is widely used not only in steel production but also in various sectors such as automobiles and consumer use. Especially, an important requirement for hydrogen to be used for the production of steel, which is a basic material, is stable supply at low cost, in addition to being carbon free. Moreover, the implementation of CCS requires, in addition to the development of cheap transportation and storage technologies for large quantities of CO , solving issues beyond technical aspects, such as securing CO, storage sites, acceptance from society, implementing entities, and distribution of the economic burdens.
COURSE50 project is the national project for drastic CO₂ reduction from iron-making process, consisting of increasing the share of hydrogen-reduction in blast furnace and CO2 capture from BFG COURSE50 test blast furnace Conventional COURSE50 The super long-term future beyond 2030 includes uncertainties that cannot be assumed at the moment, such as social situation and technology trends, and the “JISF long-term vision for climate change mitigation" presented here is to indicate a direction towards achieving the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement, and it signifies a challenge to realize “carbon neutral steel". Each member company of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation will, while continuing to fulfill the  JISF’s Carbon Neutrality Action Plan to achieve Japan's mid-term Paris Agreement target (2030), tackle the climate change mitigation measures beyond 2030 with “three ecos” and development of innovative technologies.