Global Warming of 1.5°  C Valérie Masson-Delmotte Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group I INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE C
An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.
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The report in numbers 91 Authors from 40 Countries 133 Contributing authors 1 113 Reviewers 6000 Studies 42 001 Comments INTERGOVERNMENTAL RANEL ON Climate change o Cumulative emissions of CO, and future non-CO, radiative forcing determine the probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C
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Spatial patterns of changes in mean temperature Global warming of 1.5°C 2°C Global warming of 1.5°C Spatial patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation Global warming of 1.5°C 2°C Difference 26 CMIP5 models; hatching : 66% model agreement Spatial patterns of changes in extreme temperature Global warming of 1.5°C 2°C Number of hot days (days) Temperature of hottest days (°C) Temperature of coldest nights (°C) Spatial patterns of changes in extreme temperature and precipitation Global warming of 1.5°C 2°C Number of hot days
Temperature of hottest days (°C) Temperature of coldest nights (°C) Extreme precipitation (%) Spatial patterns of changes in extreme temperature and precipitation Global warming of 1.5°C 2°C Difference Number of hot days (days) Temperature of hottest days (°C) Temperature of coldest nights (°C) Extreme precipitation (%) risks of severe impacts/risks How do climate-related risks change as a function of the level of global warming? Impacts and risks for selected natural, managed and human systems Confidence level : M, medium; H, high; VH; very high
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How do climate-related risks for “Reasons For Concern” change as a function of the level of global warming?
singular events Confidence level : M, medium; H, high; VH; very high attributable to clim change.
. . Up to several hundred million fewer people exposed to climate-related risk and susceptible to poverty by 2050 Disproportionately high risk for Arctic, dryland regions, small island developing states and least developed countries . Lower risks for health, livelihoods, food security, water supply, human security and economic growth Wide range of adaptation options which can . reduce climate risks; less adaptation needs at 1.5°C
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Global total net CO2 emissions https://data.ene.iiasa.ac.at/iamc-1.5c-explorer/ Timing of net zero CO2 Line widths depict the 5-95th percentile and the 25-75th percentile of scenarios Pathways ilmiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or low overshoot
Global total net CO2 emissions Timing of net zero CO2 Line widths depict the 5-95th percentile and the 25-75th percentile of scenarios Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or low overshoot Pathways with high overshoot Pathways limiting global warming below 2°C (Not shown above)
Global total net CO2 emissions Billion tonnes of CO 2 /yr 50 Non-CO2 emissions relative to 2010 Emissions of non-CO2 forcers are also reduced or limited in pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot, but they do not reach zero globally. Methane emissions Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or low overshoot Pathways with high overshoot Timing of net zero CO2 Line widths depict the 5-95th percentile and the 25-75th percentile of scenarios Pathways limiting global warming below 2°C (Not shown above) Limiting warming to 1.5°C Would require rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all systems A range of technologies and behavioural changes ↑ Scale up in annual investment in low carbon energy and energy efficiency by factor of five by 2050 Renewables supply 70-85% of electricity in 2050 → Coal declines steeply, ~zero in electricity by 2050 →  Deep emissions cuts in transport and buildings → Changes in land use and urban planning
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Fossil fuels and industry Agriculture, forestry, land use
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Where are we? . National pledges are not enough to limit warming to 1.5°C . Avoiding warming of more than 1.5°C would require carbon dioxide emissions to decline substantially before 2030 Peter Essick / Aurora Photos
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Different pathways have different synergies and trade-offs with UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Careful mix of measures to adapt to climate change and reduce emissions can help achieve SDGs Low energy demand, low material consumption and low carbon food carry Cighsefallone,fitovernance, innovation and mobilisation of finance key for feasibility
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Global Warming of 1.5°C An IPOO special report on the impacts of o above pre-industrial level the context of strengthening the global  response to the threat of climate change, sustainable  development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. ipcc.ch/report/sr15 : Summary for Policy Makers 10 Frequently Asked Questions 5 Chapters Glossary
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Chapter 1: Framing and context (integration WGI-WGII-III) Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development (integration WGI-WGIII, pathways) Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems (integration WGI-WGII, global – regional) Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change  (systems transitions, dimensions of feasibility) Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities (ethics, equity, societal transformation, SDGs)