Shuichi Ashina (National Institute for Environmental Studies) 2008/2/18 The 13th AIM International Workshop

The 13th AIM International Workshop

From presentation of Dr. Masui in 12th AIM WS (2007 The 13th AIM International Workshop 3 Outline of the model •  Purpose: Representing inter-temporal optimal strategy on introduction of new technologies and economic activity change in order to achieve the future targets such as carbon emissions in 2050. •  Core model: Dynamic optimization model with linear/mixed integer programming. • The countermeasures proposed by the other models can be introduced, and evaluated. From presentation of Dr. Masui in 12th AIM WS (2007) The 13th AIM International Workshop

•  Interactive tool for dialogue!
– Between business and consumers, government and citizens, government and business, or national and local level government – For a while, between Japan LCS Project members • The model choose sets of countermeasures with quantitative evaluation, such as energy reduction. – In-depth analysis relegate other AIM models. – Run-time requires under few minutes, if possible, within 1 minutes. • The model employs LP/MIP framework with GAMS.
The 13th AIM International Workshop
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● 1st version – simple selection of technologies eady introdu
 Dr. Masui •  2nd version (under development) – introduction of sub-sectors by energy saving? technologies to CGE section (completed/.?) – Adding option selection procedure to the model. •  3rd version (not yet developed) – complete backcast model
The 13th AIM International Workshop

 Future status of technologies/policy/social trends/etc will •
The 13th AIM International Workshop

• The model chooses strictly one of cases in each countermeasures based on given social and economical conditions for maximizing welfare determined in CGE part. CM: countermeasure
The 13th AIM International Workshop

• The model requires two types of data sets: Technological data sets and Relational data sets • Technological data – Data sets like AIM/Enduse. – Costs, energy consumption, life time, etc. • Relational data – Important to describing roadmaps. – Relationships between countermeasures, times for implementation, etc. national Workshop
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From presentation of Dr. Masui in 12th AIM WS (2007) The 13th AIM International Workshop 10
• Data are answers following questions: – When the CM* will become in practical use? – How many years will be required to become widespread use? – What types of technology/policy is necessary before implementation of CM?
s utilization
• Model is still under development, and will be completed by the end of this month. •  Data sets will be assembled in next month. •  Sorry for none of results… • I (or Masui-san) will bring in results of the Backcast model at next AIM (T)WS!
The 13th AIM International Workshop

Roadmaps for Low carbon society Strategic targets and policies - Relationships to other key policies (measures to address the declining birthrate and the aging population, Employment, Trades) 070606SN Sector Core concept Strategic target Industry ●Structural transformation Infractructure ●Compact city ●Local production forlocal consumption ●Forestry preservation ●Infrastructure for hydrogen ●Mass transportation system ●Tax allocation system ●Revitalization of downtown ●Carbon neutral ●Urban planning standards ●Standards for municipal program ●Efficient use of allocated tax ●Promotion of relocation to innercities ●Dual mode Bus The 13th AIM International Workshop Specific leading way Research components te silit ldea lists Analysis Output