在宅勤務への転換が居住地選択に与える影響Impact of switching to working from home on choosing a place of residence愛媛大学上甲舞花多久和昌宏﨑山真美子長坂奈月正岡実紀下森咲背景 Background •現在の居住地選択には,通勤の利便性が重要視されているConvenience of commutation is important to residents. →中心部のオフィス街周辺に居住地が密集densely popurated central area •コロナ禍で在宅勤務の割合が増加Covid-19 disaster promoted remote work仮説  Hypothesis通勤時間の喪失により, →人口過密地域から郊外への移転が増加→居住地が無秩序に分散するのでは？ Loss of commuting time due to conversion cause → Increased relocation from overcrowded areas to suburbs → Places of residence are randomly dispersed目的2020年4月在宅勤務に関する調査(MMD研究期間:2020年4月28日・有効回答:通勤時間の喪失が居住地選択に与える影響を明らかにするClarify the impact of loss of commuting time due to conversion to remote work on choice of place of residence基礎分析•横浜のPT(パーソントリップ)データを用いるPT data of Yokohama ･神奈川県内のトリップに絞るFocus on Kanagawa trips •勤務人数が1番多いのは中区Naka-ward has the largest number of employees •横浜市役所があるため業種の偏りがあるThere is a bias in the industry due to the Yokohama City Hall →オフィス街がある横浜市西区に絞るFocus on Nishi-ward, Yokohama, where the office district is located [通勤所要時間と通勤交通手段の比較] Commuting time and Commuting transportation ・西区の通勤時間＞神奈川県内の平均通勤時間The commuting time in Nishi-ward is longer than the average commuting time in Kanagawa Prefecture. •鉄道の割合が多いHigh proportion of railways →在宅勤務が促進されると居住地選択への影響が大きくなるのではIf working from home is promoted, it may have a greater impact on the choice of place of residence. ●  MNL modelゾーンiの効用Utility of Zone i Model structure Uin = β1cityin + β2homecostin + β3shopcostin + β4timein + εin Systematic term β1 = β1 + β5ycityin + β9ocityin β2 = β2 + β6yhcostin + β10ohcostin β3 = β3 + β7yscostin + β11oscostin β4 = β4 + β8ytimein + β12otimein β1, β2, β3, β4, β5 , β6, β7, β8, β9, β10, β11, β12:parameters Ein:random term cityin:city planning area homecostin: value of residential lands shopcostin:value of commercial lands timein:time - less than 30 years old dummy ycityin   :city planning area - more than 70 years old dummy ocityin   :city planning area yhcostin :value of residential lands  - less than 30 years old  dummy ohcostin :value of residential lands  - more than 70 years old dummy yscostin :value of commercial lands - less than 30 years old dummy oscostin :value of Commercial lands - more than 70 years old dummy -less than 30 years old dummy ytimein  :time - more than 70 years old dummy otimein  :timeモテル推定結果(1)
*は5%有意* is 5% significant居住地選択には, •居住地の地価•所要時間•高齢者の通勤所要時間が有意に影響• value of residential area • trip time  to destination •elder people’s trip time to their work place was significant difference about choice of residential area 5
実測値と推定値のゾーンごとの比較Comparison between actual measurements and estimation measurementsモデルの適合度は低いものの,比較的良好な再現性があるModel fit is low, There is good reproducible relatively.西区に勤務している人が多く居住するゾーンほど,誤差が大きいThe more residents, the more error. 6 Result ▶神奈川県内の居住地の移転Relocation of residence 2各ゾーンの居住者数の分布(神奈川県)勤務地のある西区を中心に,居住地が集中していたが,通勤時間が0になることで，過疎地域への移転が見受けられ居住地が分散するResidential areas are concentrated around Nisi Ward Relocation to depopulated areas due to lack of commuting time政策分析Policy ▶居住者数増減率Resident increase /decrease rate全員が在宅勤務All of remote work 70歳以上のみ在宅勤務Remote work only over 70 years old 70歳未満在宅勤務Remote work under 70 years old ･高齢層の郊外への移転が顕著Relocation od elderly people to the suburbs is remarkable •高齢層で通勤トリップはサンプル数が38トリップと少ないため, The number of commuting trips for the elderly is as small as 38 trips極端に推定されている可能性があるCan be extremely estimated ✓居住地選択には,居住地の地価・所要時間・高齢者の通勤所要時間が有意に影響しているLand prices, travel times, and commuting times for the elderly have a significant effect on the choice of place of residence ✓在宅勤務が促進され,通勤時間が喪失すると,ビジネス街のあるような過密地域から,郊外に居住地が移転するWhen remote work is promoted and commuting time is lost ,the place of residence moves from a crowded area such as a business district to the suburbs >高齢層が郊外へ移転し,居住地の分散につながるので,政策としては,高齢層以外に在宅勤務を促進することが望まれる→無理に高齢層に在宅勤務を進める必要はないElderly people move to the suburbs, leading to decentralization of residential areas, as a policy, it is desirable to promote remote work to people other than the elderly →There is no need to force the elderly to remote work今後の展望▶今後の課題Future tasks •ライフサイクル(世帯数など)や,持ち家か賃貸かなど,移転しやすさを表す個人属性の考慮Consideration of personal attributes that indicate ease of relocation, such as life cycle (number of households, etc,) And whether to own or rent a house •通勤手当の考慮Consideration of commuting allowance現状通勤手当があるため遠くに住んでいる人がいる可能性があるMay live far away due to current commuting allowance ･需要の変化による地価の変動の考慮Consideration of fluctuations in land prices due to changes in demand 10