Assessing potential exposures to people in the post-closure period of a waste disposal facility IV. Option B: Modelling future climates and landscapes Gerhard Proehl
Assessment for present conditions Environmental change . Climate ● Landscape . Lifestyle . Technology Agriculture/soil Assessment for future conditions
Present conditions Option A: Analogue approach Use data for present day conditions of neighboring sites* covering a wide spectrum of climates Future conditions Option B: Dynamic analysis Modelling the evolution of the biosphere in response to the main environmental change drivers Future conditions *Neighbouring sites: Selected from a radius of about 3000 km R-13-46 Example for Option B The Biosphere model for radionuclide transport and dose assessment in SR-PSU Peter Saetre, Sara Nordén, Sven Keesmann Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB Per-Anders Ekström, Facilia AB December 2013 AMBIO 2013, 42:383–392 DOI 10.1007/x13280-013-0405-7 Humans and Ecosystems Over the Coming Millennia: Overview of a Biosphere Assessment of Radioactive Waste Disposal in Sweden Ulrik Kautsky, Tobias Lindborg, Jack Valentin ENEP A facility for high level waste in Sweden General design of the facility •  Spent nuclear fuel in copper canisters •  Surrounded by compacted bentonite clay •  Deposited at approximately 500 m depth •  In groundwater saturated, granitic rock Development of the landscape • The site is at the shoreline of the Baltic Sea • Since the end of the last ice-age (12000 years ago), the land is lifting, —The current lift rate is 6 mm/a –As a result, areas on the shore line, which are under water now, will dry out. • The area develops in the order –Sea –Lake –Wetland —Peat bog –Agricultural land • The land will develop as in the last 10000 years ENEP Rise of land and change of topography at Forsmark ENEP
Sten Bergland - Urik Kautsky - Tobias Lindbarg Jan-Olaf Selroon Hydrogeology Journal (2009) 17: 95–113 ENEP The repository and the predicted points where radionuclides enter the biosphere SKB/skbebo 2011-01-19 09:08
|Modified  from: T Lindborg, SKB, Sweden IAEA-EMRAS II annual meeting, Vienna 26 January 2011
• The exposure is estimated for the land- use at the discharge point: –Sea – Lake –Peat bog –Forest –Agricultural land • Production and collection of food on the landscape elements • External exposure when staying on contaminated areas
Technical Report
Landscape dose conversion factors used in the safety assessment SR-Site
Methodology for calculation of doses to man and implementation in Pandora
Ssh Nuclear Fur ENEP
Addressing the development of the climate • Analysis of the past climate • Implications of the greenhouse effect and global warming • Extrapolation to the future • Exploring  a range of climate paths
Predicted generalized time evolution of annual average near- surface temperature (°C) in Forsmark Technical Report TR-13-05 Climate and climate-related issues for the safety assessment SR-PSU Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB October 2014 ENE Climate From past to future climate . Analysis of past climate cycles From past to future landscape . Analysis of development in the past 。 Extrapolation to the future (with glaciation) sk assessment
ENEP Prediction of doses due to releases from the repository for high level waste ofo S U M M A口
•  Environmental change is driven by
– Climate change – Change of the topography
• Climate
– Analysis of past climate – Greenhouse effects – Extrapolation to the future
• Topography
– Modelling of the annual uplift – Sea => Lake => Wetland => Peat bog => Agricultural land •  The models reflect many interactions – Climate and hydrology – Landform and hydrology – Release of radionuclides from the geosphere to the biosphere
•  Assessment of radiation doses
– Migration to the landscape elements – Accumulation of radionuclides and land-use – Dose to people
•  Data requirements and validation
– Enormous data requirements to quantify all processes – Complexity of the system is an inherent source of uncertainty – The land lift model can be validated by the past development – Predicting future conditions may be considered speculative, – Addressed by consideration of “alternative development”