29th Japan Road Congress International Symposium Risk Management for Roads in a Changing Climate (RIMAROCC): a European Methodological Approach Yves Ennesser: EGIS, France 2 November 2011
“ERA-NET ROAD – Coordination and Implementation of Road Research in Europe” is a Coordination Action funded by the 6th Framework Program of the EC. The ENR partners were Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom 🌸 “Road Owners Getting to Grips with Climate Change” was a trans-national joint research program initiated by ERA-NET ROAD ❏ A call for proposals was launched in March 2008. Nineteen proposals were jointly evaluated and 4 projects selected covering the topics: l Winter maintenance (IRWIN) | Pavements (P2R2C2) li l Risk management/analysis (RIMAROCC), and Drainage (SWAMP) roadにくいnet To develop a common method on risk analysis and risk management for roads with regard to climate change in Europe
Project team
| l 1 SGI: Swedish Geotechnical Institute (Sweden) Egis: Engineering, Project Development, and motorway Infrastructure Operations (France) Deltares: Research and Engineering in Water, Soil and Infrastructure (Netherlands) NGI: Norwegian Geotechnical Institute (Norway)
Consists of seven steps - l - Is in line with ISO 31000 Is designed to be compatible, and to operate in parallel with existing methods Is designed for road risk management at all operational and geographical levels (structure, section, network, territory) l 1. Guidebook to the RIMAROCC Method 2. Case study Network level, France 3. Case study Network level, The Netherlands 4. Case study Section level, Norway 5. Case study Structure level, Sweden Technical background report 6.
2 November 2011
road C A Guidebook Part 1- Basis for climate and risk management A Guidebook to the RIMAROCC Method Final version Part 2 - Method and Guidance part 3 - Case studies 2 November 2011
Extreme Draught Extreme Critical - weighted according to their importance for the road sector (1: useful to 4: of primary importance) - the amount of expected change is estimated, from significant increase ++, to significant decrease -- 7
The RIMAROCC method consists of seven steps, each with a number of sub-steps. All steps are presented in the same way, starting with a summary of the step and a list of the sub-steps. The sub-steps are structured as follows: a)  Objectives – describing the objectives of the sub-step b)  Output – describing the outcome of the sub-step c)  Method – presenting the recommended methods or procedures d)  Data collection – describing what data is needed to perform the sub-step and how to obtain it. e)  Examples – each sub-step is provided with an example to improve the readability. More examples can be found in the case studies.

1. Objectives
By establishing the context, the authority responsible for the climate risk management study articulates its objectives, defines the external and internal parameters to be taken into account when managing risk, sets the scope and risk criteria for the remaining process, and defines the area under study.
2. Sub-steps
The context analysis is structured into three successive sub-steps: •Establish a general context •Establish a specific context for a particular scale of analysis •Establish risk criteria and indicators adapted to each particular scale of analysis The general context is the same whatever the scale of analysis (structure, section, network, area). It differs when addressing particular scales.スイ・ net i road (ニー Example: the specific context for a network scale analysis 2 November 2011

scale analysis
Risk criteria and indicators on the section scale are presented in three tables. The first table shows criteria for categorising exposure, the second table shows criteria for assessing vulnerability and the third table shows criteria for assessing consequences.
Criteria for assessing exposure

1. Objectives
The risk manager should identify sources of risk, areas of impact, unwanted events (including changes in circumstances) and their causes and potential consequences. The aim of this step is to generate a comprehensive list of risks based on events that might stop, degrade or delay the normal operation of the road system, or create trouble or damage in the exposed area.
2. Sub-steps
Sub-steps are proposed in relation to the risk definition. Risk is an unwanted event which is characterised as: Risk = function of [Threat, Vulnerabilities, Consequences] This step is therefore structured into three sub-steps: Identify risk sources or factors (threats) l I dentify vulnerabilities - I dentify possible consequences l

1. Objectives
Risk analysis involves developing an understanding of the risks. The risk analysis provides input to risk evaluation, serves as a decision basis for risk treatment, and for selecting the most appropriate risk treatment strategies and methods.
2. Sub-steps
• Establish risk chronology and scenarios • Determine the impact of risk • Evaluate occurrences • Provide a risk overview
All risks are scored using criteria in order to characterize the risk magnitude. The risk table below summarises the probability, exposure, sensitivity and consequence indicator scores for each risk scenario.

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1. Objectives
The purpose of risk evaluation is to assist the risk manager in making decisions, based on the outcome of the risk analysis, about which risks need treatment and the priorities for treatment implementation. Risk evaluation involves comparing the level of risk found during the analysis process with risk criteria defined when the context was established. Based on this comparison, the need for treatment can be considered.
2. Sub-steps
• Risk prioritisation • Compare climate risk to other kinds of risk • Determine which risks are acceptable Example of risk prioritisation at the structure scale Risk matrix with probability and weighted consequences indicated for four risk scenarios. Probability 2 November 2011 17

1. Objectives
Risk mitigation involves identifying, appraising and selecting one or several options for modifying the non-acceptable risks. A combination of the identified measures can be changed into a strategy for the coming years in order to cope with climate change and keep risks acceptable. This step also includes securing financing as well as documenting in an action plan how the chosen adaptation measures will be implemented.
2. Sub-steps
• Identify options • Appraise options • Negotiation with funding agencies • Present an action plan
Example of mitigation option appraisal on a section/network scale
The strategy sheet example below is based on assumptions but gives a good insight into how the adaptation tipping point in a strategy analysis sheet can be used to choose a strategy, as a combination of several related measures. The x-axis is the time scale, and. The measure’s tipping point is where the blue arrow ends. At present the blue arrows show the timeframe for which each measure is effective, measures I, V, VI, VII and VIII are applicable. Measures III and IV will only become effective after climate change has already developed. The green arrows show the possibilities of changing from one measure to another measure. The effects of each measure on the consequence criteria are scored as described above, as are the implementation costs.

Step 6 – IMPLEMENTATION
OF ACTION PLAN
1. Objectives
In this step the action plan is presented in detail; responsibilities for implementation are addressed; resources are allocated; performance indicators are selected. All these elements being specified, the action plan is implemented. This is a strategic step which involves stakeholders from several departments: roads, civil security, finance, etc. Network and territorial scale analyses require information on which geographical units of the road organisation should be involved.
2. Sub-steps
• Develop an action plan on each level of responsibility • Implement an adaptation action plan

1. Objectives
Since risk management is a learning process this step aims to monitor and review the implemented actions and to capitalise the knowledge gained through climatic events and implementation of action plans.
2. Sub-steps
• Regular monitoring and review • Re-plan in case of new data or delay in implementation • Capitalisation of return of experience on both climatic events and implementation progress Thank you for your attention RIMAROCC Reports http://www.eranetroad.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=76&Itemid=79 Presenter’s contact yves.ennesser@eqis.fr