New Era for Citizens as Game-changers. Emerging Responsibility in Environmental Society :ムチンジャーとなった私たち、環境社会でもとめられるものChiho WATANABE National Institute for Environmental Studies 15th Kawasaki International Eco-Business Forum New Era for Citizens as Game-changers. Emerging Responsibility in Environmental Society ームテンジャーとなった私たち、環境社会でもとめられるもの*  Anthropocene, the 'New Fra' The game we're playing Why are we stepping into Anthropocene? How to change the game to a 'win-win' one? Learning from the past Excerpt from our Charter国立環境研究所は今も未来も人びとが健やかに暮らせる環境をまもりはくむための研究によって広く社会に貢献します3 New Era for Citizens as Game-changers -Emerging  Responsibility in Environmental  Society ・ベテュンジャとなった私たち・環境社会でもとめられるもの:*  Anthropocene, the 'New Fra' The game we're playing Why are we stepping into Anthropocene? How to change the game to a 'win-win' one? Learning from the past
Rockstrom  et al.. Nature (2009) Within this circle  (Boundary), Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk) In zone of uncertainty (increasing risk) Below boundary (safe) Boundary not yet quantified We are playing a ‘win-lose’ game Millennium  Ecosystem  Assessment A 5-year (2001-05) project evaluating the interrelationship between ecosystem change and human wellbeing in the latter half of 20th century. Called by late Cofi Anan (ex UN-SG). 1,360 experts participated in the proiect. Ecosystem change ⇒  improvement of wellbeing and economics ⇒ ecosystem service for future generations may decrease. avoidable with appropriate actions in the next half century substantial shifts in policy and practice required www.millenniumassessment.org   "synthesis report"
HIGH LOW North Africa ■ Eastern Europe Sub-Saharan Africa
Environmental changes and ecosystem impairment Escalation of human pressure on global environment Millennium Assessment 2019/2/13 Examples of health eff Direct health effects Floods, heatwaves,water shortage, landslides, exposure to ultravioket radiation, exposure to pollutants生態系によって媒介される影響:感染症の分布の変化,農作物の減産などEcosystem-mediated bealth effects Altered infectious disease risk, reduced food yields (undernutrition, stunting), depletion of natural medicines, mental health (personal, community), effects of aesthetic or cultural impoverishment間接的影響: 生計の減少,集団の移住,争い・・・・などIndirect, deferred, and displaced health effects Diverse health consequences of livelihood loss, population displacement (including slum dwelling), conflict, inappropriate adaptation and mitigation Lancet Commission ‘Planetary Health’ (2017)より
Paul Ehrich's equation Environmental Impact = Population x Affluence  x Technology T: bigger = worse (higher environmental burden) ex) I : CO, emission by the population P: population A: consumption of electricity per capita T: CO, emission per unit electricity production Ehrich P. 1932～ (Stanford U., Conservation Ecology )
Reason #2: Weak I=PAT feedback <examples with direct, strong feedback> • Animals (natural ecosystem) • Hunter-gatherers (human-ecosystem) • cf. Local environmental pollution (Minamata, Itai-itai, air-pollution in mid-20C Japan) Decrease in ecological service (including food shortage)
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Prior to industrialization Forest = limiting factor [for ‘A’] as fuel (heating, cooking, refining Ag .....), as construction material (house, palace, battle ship, barrel) →  constraints on land use BC3,500-1,500 Decline in ecosystem service =decline in QOL (White Paper MOEJ; 2005) Reason #2: Weak I=PAT feedback <Condition/strategy to avoid feedback> Spreading the Impact urban areas,  company, country...... l ↑+l 2+・・・・+l n = PAT food, electricity, ‘materials’ waste, CO 2 , human resource
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Reason #2: Weak I=PAT feedback <Condition/strategy to avoid feedback> Major urban areas are supported by x100 times larger areas. * Vancouber  (pop=472,000@1991) Ecological footprint 2M ha  (i.e.,  4hr/person) 180 times larger than the administrative   (Wakenagel, 2008:Urban Ecology). * Baltic sea coastal region (29 major urban areas) Ecological footprint =200 times larger than administrative area (Folke 2008) * Japan (4+1 major cities) •Tokyo, Yokohama, Osaka, Nagoya around 4-5 ha/person (250-600 times*) •Matsue <a smaller city>  4.25 （30 times*） *: ratio for environmental capacity 2008 (by Yokoo and Oka, 2005; “環境容量超過率” (倍)
Reason #2: Weak I=PAT feedback <Condition/strategy to avoid feedback> Barriers for feedback: * Spatial =far/isolated * Temporal =distant past, future * Awareness =invisible, low priority Climate Change: spatial, temporal, awareness biodiversity: spatial, awareness chemicals: awareness waste: spatial urban: spatial, awareness 18
New Era for Citizens as Game-changers -Emerging Responsibility in Environmental Society Afriンジャとなった私たち「県境社会でもとめられるもの*  Anthropocene, the 'New Era' The game we're playing Why are we stepping into Anthropocene? *  How to change the game to a 'win-win' one? Learning from the past Past success-failure and the way forward Current status is the results of our past effort to ‘adapt’. : We are unaware of how ‘powerful’ we become.’ → need to understand the potential consequence of ony behavior → devise appropriate feedback measures for any behavior • Had beeh focused only (almost exclusively) on  humans; Anshould pay attention to non-auman world → monitor and broadcast the status of ecosystems →Sustainability of which?どの持続可能性？ “Planetary health”(Whitmee et al., 2015. Lancet) Human health and civilization can be achieved based on the flourishing natural system and wise management of it. Pasti success-failure and the way forward Current status is the results of our past effort to ‘adapt’. : We are unaware of how ‘powerful’ we become.’ 😊 need to understand the potential consequence of any behavior → devise appropriate feedback measures for any behavior • Had been focused only (almost exclusively) on  humans, Anshould pay attention to non-auman world → monitor and broadcast the status of ecosystems failure to notice warning signals [for feedback] =>  should be more sensitive to those signals (?), L'education, literacy raising, visualization of the signals
To oyexcome the Barriers for feedback: * Spatial =far/isolated Xemporal =distant past, future - Use ICT to feedback monitoring (both real-time and long-term) Demonstrate planet-ecosystem-human links * Awareness =invisible, low priority Raise ‘environmental literacy’ through conversation, education Resort to more ‘tangible’ value systems; 25 Planetary Stewardship Ecological Society of America (2009) As current President and President-Elect of the Ecological Society of America (ESA), we call for planetary stewardship as a framework for science and society to rapidly reduce anthropogenic damage to the biosphere. Ecologists and the ESA must collaborate with other natural and social scientists – as well as with practitioners, resource harvesters, land managers, decision makers, and other concerned citizens – to explore solutions. Humankind's past actions have already committed the planet to a substantially altered future; the task ahead is to find creative and scientifically defensible actions that minimize risks of further resource or ecosystem degradation and maximize opportunities to sustain and restore natural ecosystems and the services they provide. Guest Editorial; Frontiers in Ecology (2009) Mary E Power ESA President. CA Fairbanks, AK The barriers may be breakable; Spatial, temporal, and awareness. ‘A polar bear would say thank you for your turning off an electric device.’ by a 4th-grade primary schoolgirl U of Tsukuba, Energy reduction campaign, Dec 2017筑波大学冬季省エネ･節電標語（2017. 12月） 0 - 1 1 1 1 माम % Dada Thank you for your attention!