SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Synthesis of the state of knowledge on climate change Climate risks and how to deal with them Hans-O. Pörtner Co-Chair IPCC Working Group II SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis ipcc The State of Knowledge about Climate Change SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT iOCC es SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Impacts are driven by changes in multiple climate conditions, which are increasingly attributed to human influence. CC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.1b SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Observed widespread and substantial impacts and related losses and damages attributed to climate change Water availability and food production Health and well-being Confidence in attribution to climate change ••• High or very high confidence •• Medium confidence • Low confidence Conclusion: No sector and system remains untouched IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.1a IDCC es SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Conclusion: What we do now, defines the future of humankind and planet CARS SYR Figure SPM.1c The extent to which future generations will experience a hotter and SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Regional species losses – resulting from evolutionary adaptation limits Risk of  f species losses Percentage of animal species and seagrasses exposed to potentially dangerous temperature conditions 1.2 Conclusion: Loss of habitat – Animal life retreats from the tropics. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.3a ipcc 3.3 – 3.6 billion people live in hotspots of high vulnerability to climate change...large parts of Africa, South Asia, Central SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis iOCC es Heat-humidity risks to human health* Heat-humidity risks to human healt ³Projected regional impacts utilize a global threshold beyond which daily mean surface air temperature and relative humidity may induce Days per year where hyperthermia that poses a risk of mortality. The duration and intensity of heatwaves are not presented here. Heat-related health outcomes combined temperature and humidity conditions pose a risk   vary by location and are highly moderated by socio-economic, occupational and other non-climatic determinants of individual health and of mortality to individuals 3 socio-economic vulnerability. The threshold used in these maps is based on a single study that synthesized data from 783 cases to determine the relationship between heat-humidity conditions and mortality drawn largely from observations in temperate climates. Conclusion: Human habitat is lost from lower latitudes. * Without “technical” adaptation measures IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.3b SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Risks are occurring sooner than assessed earlier. Conclusion: Limit warming close to 1.5°C IOCC es IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.4a SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Risks caused by sea level rise Risks for coastal regions increase with sea level and depend on responses taken. Conclusion: Limit warming close to 1.5°C IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.4c SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Limiting warming to 1.5°C and 2°C involves rapid, deep and in most cases immediate greenhouse gas emission reductions ...Talk WGIII Jim Skea SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Our adaptation measures and socioeconomic development define climate risks Limited adaptation (failure to proactively adapt; low investment in health systems); incomplete adaptation (incomplete adaptation planning; moderate investment in health systems); proactive adaptation (proactive adaptation management: higher investment in health systems) The SSP1 pathway illustrates a world with low population growth, high income, and reduced inequalities, food produced in low GHG emission systems, effective land use regulation and high adaptive capacity (i.e., low challenges to adaptation). The SSP3 pathway has the opposite trends. Confidence level assigned to transition range Conclusion: Limit warming close to 1.5°C in order to maintain adaptation capacity AR6 SYR Figure SPM.4d ipcc SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis ipcc There is a rapidly narrowing window of opportunity to enable higher climate resilient development SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Our future is decided now! All aspects of life would change when avoiding greenhouse gas emissions and minimizing climate risks. Each decision counts! Conclusion: SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis ipCC es
Conditions that enable
individual and collective actions ● Inclusive governance • Diverse knowledges and values ● Finance and innovation • Integration across sectors and time scales ● Ecosystem stewardship • Synergies between climate and development actions ● Behavioural change supported by policy, infrastructure and socio-cultural factors IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.2c
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Synthesis
Conditions that enable
individual and collective actions
● Inclusive governance • Diverse knowledges and values • Finance and innovation • Integration across sectors and time scales ● Ecosystem stewardship ● Synergies between climate and development actions ● Behavioural change supported by policy, infrastructure and socio-cultural factors
Conditions that constrain
individual and collective actions • Poverty, inequity and injustice • Economic, institutional, social and capacity barriers ● Siloed responses ● Lack of finance, and barriers to finance and technology ● Tradeoffs with SDGs ipcc es SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Feasibility of diverse solution options: Adaptation often has synergies with mitigation. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.2c SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis „… the WGII view of the world“ SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Integrate protection and adaptation responses of ecosystems and their contribution to mitigate for climate resilient development Quantify effective and ecosystem-specific needs Establish Mosaic- Land-, Ocean- and Freshwater-‘scapes‘ Effective and socially just protection measures to restore 30-20% of Land-, Freshwater and Ocean ecosystems can help Planetary Health including resilient ecosystem services (Nature‘s contributions to people) SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT Synthesis Report iocc The science is clear. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future for all. IPCC AR6 reports offer solutions. However, it is getting late. ipCC es