Low Carbon Societies in China: Scenario and Road Map ERI Team Energy Research Institute, China Primary Energy Demand, Basline Scenario ■ Bio-Diesel □ Ethonal ● Biomass Power □ Wind ■ Nuclear □ Hydro □ N.Gas ■ Oil ■ Coal 2 Primary Energy Demand in China, policy scenario 6000 5000 4000 
3 S 3000 2000 1000 ■ Bio-Diesel □ Ethonal ■ Biomass Power □ Wind ■ Nuclear □ Hydro □ N. Gas ■ 0il ■ Coal Year GDP in China □ Tertiary Industry ■ Secondary Industry ■ Primary Industry 44
■ Low GDP Growth ■ High GDP Growth
7 IIPCC Range
carbon cycle and climate change affect the required mitigation for a particular stabilization level of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. These feedbacks are expected to increase the fraction of anthropogenic emissions that remains in the atmosphere as the climate system warms. Therefore, the emission reductions to meet a particular stabilization level reported in the mitigation studies assessed here might be underestimated. b) The best estimate of climate sensitivity is 3°C [WG 1 SPM]. c) Note that global mean temperature at equilibrium is different from expected global mean temperature at the time of stabilization of GHG concentrations due to the inertia of the climate system. For the majority of scenarios assessed, stabilisation of GHG concentrations occurs between 2100 and 2150. d) Ranges correspond to the 15m to 85m percentile of the post-TAR scenario distribution. CO, emissions are shown so multi-gas scenarios can be compared with CO,- only scenarios. CO2 Emission by Region, IPAC results, 560ppmCO2eq, per capita emission convergency 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 kt-C 2,000,000 1,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 990 00万

2000 002
0202
02020
2010 2030 Year —— China →— Middle East – Developed Countries →→ Developing Countries | Other Developing Countries CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China, IPAC Results 4000 3500 3000 Mt- 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2020   2030   2040 2000 2005 2050 2010 –BaselineムーLCS ——— ⋆—Global 50% Proposal Domestic Willing Low carbon tech and change of consumption Demonstrated by Developed Countries 70% to 80% emission reduction?
◆ Santana ● PAJERO + PRUIS = LUPO /100km
■ Ultra Large City ■ Very Large City口Large  City
a.   Modern renewable energy production technology (solar power and etc) Advanced nuclear power generation system b. c.  Fuel cell d.  IGCC/advanced clean coal technology/carbon capture and carbon storage technologies e.  Advanced gas turbine f.  Unconventional natural gas and crude oil production technology g.   Synthetic fuel production technology h.  Ultra-low-power and zero-emission advanced transport technologies
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o o o By 2030, best efficiency in the world From now, newly installed capacity should go to best or second best technology After 2030, innovation on new technology and new production process Establishing recycling economy o
19

□ 1995 ■ 2000 □ 2005 □ 2010 ■ 2020 □ 2030 ■ 2050 yuan/kV ✦ Hydrate → — Biomass-Ethanol → IGCC —— IGCC-Fuel Cell —— Hydrogen Vehicle → Poly-Generation —+— Solar Thermal Power - 4th Generation Nuclear Off Shore Wind — On Shore Wind → Biomass Power ×— Advanced NGCC
Population in 2005
Population in 2030
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W太阳能利用2050年的低碳住宅舒适和节能光伏电池(25-47%的家庭拥有屋顶光伏电池,年执效率接近30％太阳热利用背及率: 20-60% (日前6%)能源检测系统(家用电器)超高效空调COP =8.普及率100%生态生活教育热泵采暖COP＝5普及率30-70%高效照明如LED照明减少50%照明需求,普及率100%高效绝热減少60%采暖需求,普及率70%燃料电池普及率0-20%待机电源耗电降低1/3 ,발及率100%向公众提供经济和环境信息便大家成为低碳消费高效家用电器-減少能源需求，支持舒适和安全生活方式We can do more, with new technologies
Common Policy Settings in Scenario Analysis 26
Characteristics