Emissions Trends and Key Sources of Short- lived Climate Pollutants Using Top- down/Technology Based Methodologies in Mexico Luis Gerardo Ruiz Suárez IPCC Expert Meeting on Short-Lived Climate  Forcers May 28-31, Geneva
Mexico Fifth Communication A GEF project 1 Biennial Update Report
• If SLCF are to included in climate conventions their emissions inventories need to be as: • transparent • documented •  consistent over time, • complete • comparable • assessed for uncertainties •  subject to quality control and assurance. • Their emissions inventories should not mean heavy additional burdens to national emissions systems. • Their emissions inventories should be estimated at the same tier level as co-emited Kyoto GHG for any sector source. •  SLCF emissions inventories should follow Good Practice IPCC Guidance at the same level as the co-emitted Kyoto GHG

How it was made
• A proposal was made to INECC to make it piggybacked to the national GHG emissions inventory. • We asked for the calculation files for all sectoral sources once the GHG emissions inventory was finished. We got: •  Energy Sector: Proprietary Excel notebook for end use of fuel by sector with activity data from the national energy balance reports. •  Waste Sector: 2006 IPCC Revised Guidelines •  All other sectors; 1996 IPCC Guidelines • Following Good Practice, use national emissions factors were used when available (forest fires, agricultural, waste open, cookstoves, brick)
How it was made, cont.
• Whenever there was combustion reported there should be BC and OC | with the same activity data. • For the energy sector follow Bond et al (2204) technology based estimation method. •  Use Bond E.F. tables as default E.F. • If not in Bond´s tables, follow Bond as example and seek in literature. •  Use weighted E.F. for mixed technologies use •  Account for bad emitters for all internal combustion • Assume all domestic wood combustion is "fogón" like. • Estimate uncertainty using the same uncertainty for activity data  as the co-emitted  CO (CO2) and the specific E.F.
This E.F. notebook is pasted into the IPCC software root
ID日本のうち日本の整UN BC emissions-from CUSCUS.xlsx @ This notebook is pasted into the inventory year folder
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CO2 (Tg) from the energy sector by subsector CO2 emissions trends are quite stable by sector and by fuel, their shares do not change abruptly along the time  as expected from the long life cycle of technologies in the main sectoral sources Only natural gas use grows faster than other fuels at the expenses of residual oil in the electricity production Coke Coal
Figure A10. BC (top panel) and OC (bottom panel) emission trends from 1990 to 2010. Source of activity data, the 1990-2010 INEGEI in the Fifth National Communication, [SEMARNAT, 2012].
An oddity
GHG emissions from LULUC use deforestation rate from the National Forestry Inventory (NFI) as data source for the emissions activity data These time series contains data from three NFI: 1981-1990, 1991-2000, 2001-2010 The GHG LULUC emissions inventory team took deforestation rates as they were from the NFI I took the activity data as they were from the GHG emissions inventory from LULUC.
BC Figure A8. Relative distribution of BC by sector in 1990 and 2010. OC Figure A9. Relative distribution of OC by sector in 1990 and 2010. In LULUC OC emissions 〜 10 BC emissions In open combustion VOC and OC emissions are correlated
1990-2010 BC (Gg) from the energy sector by subsector ■ Industry and building ■ Transportation 1990 If in open combustion VOC and OC are correlated then VOC residential emissions may be as important as OC emissions. Combustion SLCF should be analyzed as an integral set of co-pollutants
BRP and 6 NC use BC/PM².5 ratios on  3PM².5 estimates of dectoral and bottom up estimates Comparison of total and subsectoral BC emissions from the Energy Sector in the  5NC, 1rst
• Combustion SLCF emissions inventories can be made in the same go as GHG emission inventories • Chosen E.F. (or BC/PM۽دpartition ratios) are key to mitigation choices • To account for super emitters has a strong impact on estimates Thanks