改革開放後中国の地域間資本移動：Feldstein- Horioka方程式の空間計量経済学的推定I. 1978 ( 2008) ( 2006) Feldstein and  Horioka  (1980) FH ) ( ( ) saving- retention coefficient (Boyreau-Debray and Wei 2004, Watanabe 2006) 2004 ( 2007) 1993 i Y i, I , S i Hashiguchi  and Hamori ( 2009 ) 90 = 0, β = 1
α FH ,8 Horioka Feldstein OECD B and Bera 1998) ( Anselin B (1) u i 2007 1978 U j = λΣ w ju +ε ,
FH IV III
( 1 λ | II. l. FH 1, Y
(1) << 1
j λ i λ = 0 (2) (1) u, ( ) (2) u = 2Wu+s,
W ( ) (Anselin 1988, p. 18) 2. (1) (3) y = Xβ+u, u = 2 Wu + ε, (4)
y =
SEA (spatial error autoregressive) (4) es
λ
(5)
(3) 30 23 SEA (7) λ λ
λ (6) AIC xなみ) ( AIC spatial ( Anselin  1988, p. 182, Anselin and Bera 1998, p. 258) III. saving-retention coefficient B 29 1993 95 1978 2007 λ = 0 ( ) OLS ß 1994 2003 80 10 30 18 95 90 β > 0 10 AIC λ = 0 Hashiguchi and Hamori (2009) IV.
29
1978 2007 SEA (spatial error autoregressive) Feldstein-Horioka 2005 30 1986 2005 (p. 34), 1983 Hsueh SEA and Li 1999 (p. 555), 1980 (p. 244), saving-retention coefficient 1982 Hsueh and Li 1999 (p. 569) SEA 1978 80 90 ( 2000 FH van  Win- coop 2000 SEM (spatial error model) ( Anselin and Bera  1998, SEA Anselin  2001) ment Core Team 2009) R version 2.9.2 (R Develop-
Y I S Y Anselin, Luc. 1988. Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models. Dordrecht: Kluwer. 2001. “Spatial Econometrics.” In A i Companion to Theoretical Econometrics, ed. Badi H. Baltagi, 310-30. Malden, MA: Blackwell. 10
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1952 2004 Anselin, Luc, and Anil K.Bera. 1998. "Spatial Dependence in Linear Regression Models with an Introduction to Spatial Economet- rics." In Handbook of Applied Economic Statistics, ed. Aman Ullah and David E. A. ) Giles, 237-89. New York: Marcel Dekker. Boyreau-Debray, Genevieve, and Shang-Jin Wei. 2004. “Can China Grow Faster? A Diagnosis of the Fragmentation of Its Do¬ mestic Capital Market." IMF Working Pa¬ per WP04/76. Feldstein, Martin, and Charles Horioka. 1980. "Domestic Savings and International Capi¬ tal Flows." Economic Journal, 90(358): 314-29. Hashiguchi, Yoshihiro, and Shigeyuki Hamori. 2009. "Saving-Investment Relationship and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Chinese Economics Provincial Data, 1980-2007." Bulletin, 29(3): 1986-94. Hsueh Tien-tung, and Li Qiang, eds. 1999. China's Natinal Income, 1952  1995. Boul- der: Westview. R Development Core Team. 2009. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Comput¬ ing. Vienna: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. http://www.R-project.org/. Watanabe, Shinichi. 2006. "The Inter-Provincial Capital Flows in China before and after the Transition to a Market Economy." In Recovering Financial Systems: China and Asian Transition Economies, ed. Mariko Watanabe, 69-79. New York: Palgrave. van Wincoop, Eric. 2000. "Intranational versus International Saving-Investment Comove¬ ments." In International Macroeconomics, ed. Gregory D. Hess and Eric van Wincoop, 11-36. Cambridge: Cambridge UP. . 2008. 3, 287-309. . 2007. 1952 2004 . 1999. . 2006. 4, 156-78.
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HASHIGUCHI  Yoshihiro CHEN  Kuang-hui
Abstract
A Feldstein-Horioka test for the degree of China's inter-provincial capital mobility year by year from 1978-2007 is conducted using the spatial error autoregressive (SEA) model, a method of spatial econometrics to take account of spatial dependencies in the error term of an equation, and a data set that reflects the revision of historical national and provincial accounts after the first economic census in 2004. Likelihood ratio tests rejected the null hypotheses of no spatial error correlation in 18 out of 30 years and the Akaike information criteria selected the SEA model over a standard regression model in 23 years, showing the superiority of the spatial econometric method. The two models' estimations of the movement of the saving-retention coefficient, however, do not differ so much. The point estimates of the coefficient are small until the first half of the 1980s. They get large after that and peak in the mid 90s, and then declined again to the level almost same with the one around 1980 (though not significant, they in- creased again in the 2000s). While the "home bias" problem of capital flows in the post-reform China has been argued strongly, it is very possible that the bias has now almost disappeared.