New Integrated Modelling with Special Reference to Al M/Ecosystem Model The 8th AIM International Workshop 13-15, March 2003 From: Y.Matsuoka antroduction, the aim and some feature of anew hiedrated assessment model . Framework of the model Some preliminary resul is of the model calculation
1. Integrated Assessment model of Long-term future scenario on global economy, ecological service and environmental protection policy 2. A tool for scenario analysis on Energy policy and climatic change Economic assessment of natural services Macro-economy and land-use changes Economic assessment of global environmental conservation activity 3. Extension of AIM on climate change 4. Starting  model to analyze various global issues, that is the model has generic structure, easy to extend, ... 5. ....
1. Top-down global model 2. Coupling of  1) sequential quasi-dynamic general equilibrium model for balancing and pricing goods and services and 2) Dynamic accumulation and depreciation process model of man-made and natural capitals 3. Explicit description of GHGs emission, pollution loading and their reduction activity 4. Simplified natural process models of Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling, Hydrology, Erosion and weathering process
5. Consistent description of population, GDP, and land-use change processes 6. Explicit descriptions of • l nteraction among natural/environment management activities and macro-economy . Natural and environmental services as indispensable inputs of economic production and people  living Explicit description of natural services, 5. environmental protection activity and their seenemic interestiens.
•  Natural capital = Renewable resources (stock), having the concepts of depreciation, investment • Environmental goods/service production sectors : Extension of primary industry. Agriculture, Stock farming, water supply, forestry, fisheries etc.. •   Natural capital maintenance sectors : Functional sector, which augments,and invests to natural capital/service. •  Extended concept of investment : Prevention of soil degradation, increase of base water flows. Costs is transferred from government or environmental service production sectors.
Physical volume balancing of goods : Logit share preference function with physical/monetary continuity, i.e. Share of input/output goods : Logit equation   with variable preference parameters I nput volume = Output volume (Monetary, Physically) 1) Composition of domestic market goods with domestic products and foreign products 2) Market electricity production by various generation methods
2. Systematic and automatic data reconciliation processes among 1) I O structures and monetary flows (GTAP5) 2) Financial flows (I SS, Hague) 3) Energy flows (I EA/OECD), energy resources   (fossil, traditional, modern renewables) 4) Agriculture, forestry and livestock productions (FAOSTAT) 5) Land-use (FAOSTAT, I GBP 1 km product, GLC2000) 6) Stocks, man-made capitals, environmental devices, natural resources/capitals, human capitals etc. 3. Automatic sector and regional aggregation program coupled with supporting database with country level resolution
Bottom-up estimation of following equations 1. Emissions of  SO₂, NO₂, PM, BOD, N and P 2.
LOs.j.r : emission of pollutant s LO o.s.i.r : emission of pollutant s in benchmark year WDI (BOD), SO2 and NO2 (EDGAR), PM (WRI) Rds,i,r : reduction ratio of pollutant s Rdosir : reduction ratio of pollutant s in benchmark year y i , : activity of sector i in region r    AIM/Ecosystem CGE module 3.   Pollutant Reduction service sectors RLOsir RLOs,i,r: Reduced pollutant Ioad, Rds,i,r  LOs,i,r/(1-Rds,i,r) Irsir : coefficients of pollutant reduction service function Vrsir : Input of good i to pollution reduction sector
Estimate crop productivity decrease by land degradation. •Physical erosion :  E a =f (T,R,LUT) Ea : Degradation degree Soil texture index, Bulk density index, soil depth T: Terrain erodibility index, relief index    FAO/Soil map of the World R: Rainfall erodibility AIM/Ecosystem climate module LUT: Iand cover type AIM/Ecosystem land-use module • Crop production impact:  El i = El o,i  (E /E a,o) n El; : Productivity decrease of crop i  caused by land degradation Eloj : Crop productivity decrease in benchmark year, 2% ( maize), 1% (wheat) in EU region Eao: Degradation degree in benchmark year
concordance among GTAP5, IEA and this model
year
year
Standard +20% investment -20% investment Change of forest area sensitivity to forestry product’s premium (10 % cost equivalent)
• We started constructing more portable, global comprehensive integrated assessment model for integrating global economic activity, environmental/ecosystem impacts and environmental policies. . This model is a top-down, CGE type with emphasis's on people and natural environmental activities . Scenario analysis for the MA assessment is an immediate application of this activity.

contents
Scenarios
Population by each region Potential Technology Improvement for all inputs by each region and sector, i.e. factors, intermediates, water GDP growth consistency Base year statistics Food consumption (AGR,LVK,FRS,FSH consumption) by each region Land use by each sector and each region Water use by each sector and each region Biogeochemicals and genetic use by each sector and each region Flood damage by each sector and each region Empirical equations Food consumption function by each region Flood damage and mitigation cost function by each region Draught damage functions (Industry, Domestic, Agriculture) by each region Irrigation cost function by each region Water production function by each region GHG emission and temperature /precipitation change equations by each region