Deployment of AIM approach of regional low carbon development to Asian region The 20th AIM International Workshop January 23-24, 2015 Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES Tsukuba, Japan Speaker: Yuzuru Matsuoka, Kyoto University, Japan The 20th AIM International Workshop, 2015 1 Several points of Asian Low Carbon Development (LCD) study 1.  Planning of Low Carbon Society and its realization cannot be conducted without multi-disciplinary, integrated and quantification methodologies. 2.  Establishing  the methodologies  and apply them  to the target regions, taking account of regional distinctive diversified characteristics,  is indispensable. 3.  Not only the planning of LCD Actions, but also the monitoring and improvement of the plans are crucial to realize LCSs. Integrated and quantification methodologies are also useful to these stages. The 20th AIM International Workshop, 2015 Up to now, we applied and are applying our LCD study approach to 8 nations and 13 regions in Asia regions The 20th AIM International Workshop, 2015 3
AIM approach of regional low carbon development
Start of the Story 1. 1-1 Formulation of the region's top initiative 1-2 Construction of Task force 1-3 Resource allocation 2. Framework setting 2-1 Background research 2-2 Framework setting 3. Construction of LCS visions 3-1 Data collection and estimation 3-2 Localization of the methods 3-3 Design and quantification of  LC Society visions 4. Design of LCS policies and assessment of GHG and non-GHG effects of the policies 4-1 Design of feasible and likely LCS policies 4-2 Projection of Baseline emissions and policy scenario emissions 4-3 Assessment of GHG and non-GHG effects of LCS policies 5. Bridging outputs of the analysis to real world 5-1 Formulation of Actions and Programs for implementation 5-2 Demonstration and reporting the results to policy makers
Existing policies, plans, and studies, national and regional circumstances etc. Timeframe, scope and boundary Related statistics, reports and preliminary surveys Adjusting of methodologies, tools and software Demography, macro economy, industrial structures etc. Define the “baseline” Identify parameters and indicators on GHG and non-GHG effects Make priority list of  actions  and policies based on the analysis and construct WBS  and roadmap for realizing LCS The 20th AIM International Workshop, 2015 4 Up to now, we applied and are applying our LCD study approach to 8 nations and 13 regions in Asia regions The 20th AIM International Workshop, 2015 5 However, still many things remains after the proposal  Low Carbon Development Actions,   i.e. PDCA  of LCDAs Set a goal, select measures to implement and design a scheme for progress management. Implement the measures by each actor.
The 20th AIM International Workshop, 2015 Kyoto" presented by Kyoto city to the selection committee, Cabinet Office "Environmental model city Kyoto" and setting mitigation targets" 7 Review study of the Ordinance of “Measures against global warming in Kyoto City" and reduction targets considering recent socio-economic environment The ordinance was established in year 2004, and fully revised in year 2010 which includes the following quantified targets. GHG emission reduction targets compared with FY1990: FY2010: 10% , FY2020: 25%, FY2030: 40%, FY2050: Realization of Low Carbon Society with a drastic cut of GHG emission However, after five year of the revision, background socio-economic environments at the time of the revision changed drastically. Shutdown of nuclear power plants after the Fukushima accident (National government changed the target from 25% reduction (of 1990 emission) to 3.8% (of 2005 emission) Stagnation of recent economic growth of the city. In the ex-ante projection for target setting, we used 1.3%/y for real growth rate assumption. Can we keep the same value now?

Final remarks
1. In the past 15 years, we have developed and applied our LCD Scenario approach to many Asian nations and local regions, 8 nations and 13 regions in Asia regions. 2. “Low Carbon Society (LCS)” issue is not only related to energy supply and consumption, but also  connected to socio-economic planning. Real and quantitative integration of them is necessary. 3. It is a knowledge and experience intensive work, and it needs  counterparts with intelligent and precise thinking. Finding of such relevant persons determines the success of the study. 4. Not only planning stage, but also monitoring, auditing and improving the LCS policies are important to make the LCS happen in the Asian region. It may take several decades. How to continue this long term support is another important issue. 5. Within my presentation, I introduced some of them. Collaborating with Asian colleagues, we want to extend and deepen our approach, acquiring experience, improving and intensifying the applicability to real world.