Activities in FY 2019-2020 Toshihiko Masui (NIES, Japan) The 26th AIM International Workshop Tsukuba, Japan (Online Meeting) September 3 and 4, 2020 ific Integrated Model //www-iam.nies.go.jp/aim/index.html Note: •  Please turn off your camera and mute your microphone when you are not speaking. •  At the oral session, when you have questions or comments, please use chat system of zoom. •  Please do not copy any screen nor record any presentation. •  All presentation videos are only used at t his workshop.
Agenda DAY 1 (September 3, Thu) DAY 2 (September 4, Fri) Session 1 (13:00-14:30 JST) - Opening - Photo session - Keynote speeches - Short presentation on posters Session 2 (15:30-18:00 JST) - Mitigation in Asia Special Session (12:50-12:55 JST) - 17th anniversary of late Dr. Tsuneyuki Morita Session 3 (13:00-15:00 JST) - Impact & adaptation Session 4 (16:00-18:00 JST) - Discussion toward the future
|AIM/Enduse [Japan] and application to Asian countries AIM/Enduse [Global] AIM/CGE [Global]
| AIM/Climate Impact assessment models
lopment of Sustains FAR 19 19 19 19 90 91 92 93 21 20　20　20 30 40 50 00 [Start of AIM (Project (FY1990-) WS (FY1997-) AIM Workshop (FY1995-)
• We had policy dialogue meetings in FY2019 ✓ Thailand ✓ Lao ✓ Indonesia ✔ 8th Annual Meeting of LoCARNet ● "Utilizing AIM model" is specified in "Joint Ministerial Statement;  6th Viet Nam - Japan Environmental Policy Dialogue." https://www.env.go.jp/press/files/jp/114598.pdf ✔ Regarding mitigation, both sides agreed on comprehensive cooperation for advancing transition towards decarbonization in Viet Nam through introducing and/or updating policies, instruments, capacity building and diffusion of low-carbon and decarbonized technologies, including developing the long- term strategy and mainstreaming renewable energy by for instance utilizing AIM model. • Other countries may need similar support/collaboration.
•   Long-term low carbon development strategy ✔ It was submitted to UNFCCC on June 26, 2019. ✓ Proclaiming a “decarbonized society” as the ultimate goal and aiming to accomplish it ambitiously as early as possible in the second half of this century, while boldly taking measures towards the reduction of GHGs emissions by 80% by 2050. •  Updated NDC ✓ It was submitted to UNFCCC on March 31, 2020. ✓ GHG Emission reduction target in 2030 is not changed (26% reduction to 2013). ✓ The review of reduction target in the NDC will be carried out consistently with the revision of the energy mix so as not to be held up until the next deadline for quinquennial submission pursuant to the Paris Agreement, building on policies and measures on all GHGs, and aiming at aspiring figures to reflect further ambitious efforts. NDCs to be submitted at next regular submissions will be consistent with the latest energy mix. •	 Since September 1, 2020, MOEJ and METI have started discussion on the next NDC target at the joint committee.
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Covid-19 affects both economic activities and climate change mitigation policy process. ●  COP26 is postponed to 2021. •  IPCC process is also pushed back. ✓ LAM3 of IPCC WG3 in April 2020 was changed to eLAM. https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2020/07/IPCC-WG-III-TSU-Report- Evaluating_the_IPCCs_first_Virtual_Lead_Author_Meeting.pdf ✓ Government and expert review of the SOD and first draft of its SPM: 18 January to 14 March 2021. ✓ LAM4 is scheduled to take place for 5 days between 12 and 30 April 2021. ✓ Literature deadline: December 14, 2020: New cut-off date for submitted papers. •  But climate change will not be delayed!
The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO, emissions
IEA forecasts
. . Global primary energy will decrease by 6% between 2019 and 202, and Global energy CO2 will decrease by 8% between 2019 and 2020. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-review-2020
60,000 40,000 20,000
Data: METI and ANRE
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1995  2000  2005  201  201  202  202  203  2030
2020.01.(Baseline) --- 2020.01.(Growth) <- Before Covid-19 <- After Covid-19 2020.07.(Baseline)  - -  -  2020.07.(Growth) Data: Cabinet office Due to Covid-19, macroeconomic framework in the near-term has changed drastically, and how big is it in the long-term? - How to control rebound effects in the short-term - Green Recovery in the long-term - Telework and digital economy using ICT, AI, IoT -> Behavioral change 11 a
•  We have shared issues, model, methodology and so o n. With this in mind, we would like to discuss the followings; ✓ Application of AIM ▷ To update NDC and to develop long-term strategy ▷ Quantification of new scenarios and roadmaps ✓ Revision of AIM → To show various issues ➤ From climate change to sustainability (SDGs) ✓ Extension of AIM ➤ As a communication tool with stakeholders ➤ Approach to real world