Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada’s forest sector Carolyn Smyth, Natural Resources Canada Meeting of the Technical Support Unit (TSU) of IPCC Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (TFI) Sofia, Bulgaria, July 1-3, 2014 Coauthors: W. A. Kurz,  T. C. Lemprière, M. Hafer, G. Stinson, E. Neilson, G. J. Rampley latural Resources
Canada

Description of Tier 3 GHG accounting system Description of application for scenario analysis Analysis of mitigation potential for forest management and wood product strategies Key messages and lessons learned
One national system, many uses: ※※ Reporting past C dynamics National GHG Inventory ※ State of Canada’s Forests ※ ※ Projecting future C dynamics *   Scientific research Policy development ※ International negotiation米※ Develop climate mitigation and adaptation strategies *   Assess C implications of forest management options http://www.ec.qc.ca/qes-qh
Carbon Budget Model *  An empirical model of forest C dynamics. *   Allows forest managers to assess carbon implications of f orest management (increase sinks and reduce sources) ※ Builds on >25 years of CFS Science米Downloaded by 1000+ people in 54 countries (carbon.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca) Trained 500+ people米Contact: Stephen Kull stephen.kull@nrcan.gc.ca
Production approach Uses harvest from Carbon Budget model ※ ※ Tracks harvested C through manufacturing, use, and end-of-life use *  Commodities: sawnwood, panels, other solid wood, and pulp & paper based on national statistics reported in FAO *  Includes product half-lives, end-of-life treatment and landfill emissions
Managed forests are those managed for timber and non-timber resources (including parks) or subject to fire protection. 7
Carbon Emissions and Area disturbed, FLFL Source: National Inventory Report 2014, Environment Canada (based on CFS data/analysis)
Emissions without HWP (10 Mt CO₂e yr 1 ) Emissions including HWP (-52 Mt CO₂e yr-¹) Commodity pools start in 1990. First order decay functions (35 years for sawnwood, 25 years for panels, 2 years for pulp and paper). Retired products and mill residues instantly oxidized.
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Objective is to determine the mitigation potential of f forest carbon management for Canada’s managed forest Time-series from GHG reporting (1990 – 2011) extended by projecting activity data (harvest, fires, planting, etc.) to 2050 Coarse spatial scale (39 spatial units representing 230 Mha). Mitigation is defined as the reduced emissions from incremental activities relative to a Base Case Results published in Biogeosciences (In Press) 10 Multiple Sectors Systems' approach to emission reductions Broaden the scope to include emissions avoided when using biomass in place of other energy sources or products. After IPCC (2007) AR4 WG III, Forestry
(1) Changes in forest ecosystem emission reduction and increased removal due to strategies NFCMARS' and CBM-CFS3" (2) Changes in harvested wood emission reduction related to harvested wood products and bioenergy due to strategies (3) Changes in interactions with other sectors emission change through product displacement and substitution CBMF-HWP Displacement factors (4) Economics net cost of emission reduction and increased removal due to strategies MEA-FCM ' Stinson et al. (2011) Global Change Biology 17, 2227-2244 il Kurz et al. (2009) Ecological Modelling 220, 480-504
Seven FM Strategies • Better Growth • Planting Growth/Regrowth Dead organic matter and soil • Harvest Less Harvested Wood Products
Two HWP Strategies
•Longer-lived products Displace alternate ✦ products • Bioenergy Harvest Displace alternate fuel sources
Better Utilization Harvest less Better Growth Bioenergy CT Planting Bioenergy PCT Bioenergy clearcut Harvest Key findings: Year Some strategies result in more positive mitigation (or lessen the negative mitigation) when displacement is included
Year Key findings: Combining FM strategies and HWP strategies can result in higher mitigation potential. Better Utilization+ LLP Harvest Less + LLP Longer-lived Products (LLP) Bioenergy feedstock
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Key findings: Portfolio mix:  derived by choosing the strategy in each region that maximizes mitigation – the strategies vary across the regions Portfolio Mix Better Utilization+ LLP Harvest Less + LLP Longer-lived Products (LLP) Bioenergy feedstock otal (Mt CO 2 e
*   Design of climate change mitigation portfolios in the forest sector should be based on systems approach that accounts for C in forest ecosystems,  C in HWP, and substitution benefits, relative to a baseline. *   Results clearly demonstrate some proposed mitigation activities are more beneficial than others. *   Forest managers do not control use of wood – effective mitigation portfolios need to integrate forest management with wood use strategies. *   Results support conclusion of IPCC AR4 WG III “[i]n the long term, sustainable forest management strategy aimed at maintaining or increasing forest C stocks, while producing an annual yield of timber, fibre, or energy from the forest, will generate the 17 largest sustained mitigation benefit." (Nabuurs et al. 2007)
*   Application of Tier 3 GHG accounting system that follows 2006 IPCC Guidelines and uses the same methods as the National Inventory Report *   The system was designed, from the outset, to conduct scenario analyses and handle multi-scale uses from project-level assessments to sub-national and national scale applications *   Defined mitigation as a comparison between two simulations – one 
“Business as usual” assumption (inventory projection) and a mitigation scenario.  Treatment mostly, but not fully, removes influences of natural disturbances, legacy impacts, impacts of climate change and other global drivers.
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Thank-you! Forest Carbon Accounting Comptabilisation du Carbone Forestier
Acknowledgements: This project is the result of successful collaboration of  federal government scientists, policy analysts, and representatives of resource management agencies in all Provinces and Territories. Funding from the Government of Canada’s Clean Air Agenda and the Panel on Energy, Research and Development. Many thanks to Carbon Accounting Team members for their contributions. Biogeosciences, 11, 1-15, 2014 www.biogeosciences.net/11/2014/ doi:10.5194/bg-11-1-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada’s forest sector C. E. Smyth ¹ , G. Stinson ¹ , E. Neilson ¹ , T. C. Lemprière ² , M. Hafer ¹ , G. J. Rampley ³ , and W. A. Kurz ¹ Global Change Biology Global Change Biology (2011), doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486. An inventory-based analysis of Canada's managed forest carbon dynamics, 1990 to 2008 G. STINSON*, W. A. KURZ*, C. E. SMYTH*, E. T. NEILSON*, C. C. DYMOND†, J. M. METSARANTAt, C. BOISVENUE*1, G. J. RAMPLEY*, Q. LIt, T. M. WHITE*2 and D. BLAIN§ CBM-CFS3: A model of carbon-dynamics in forestry and land-use change implementing IPCC standards W.A. Kurz α,*, C.C. Dymond α, T.M. White α, G. Stinson α, C.H. Shaw b, G.J. Rampley α, C. Smyth α , B.N. Simpson b , E.T. Neilson α , J.A. Trofymow α , J. Metsaranta α , M.J. Apps α