Forecasting and Nowcasting Major Earthquakes An Automated Cloud-Based Approach John Rundle Distinguished Professor, University of California Chairman, Open Hazards Group Topics: Science Applications
Science Earthquake forecast model Poisson Log Normal BPT Fault models Pattern Analysis AMR ETAS NTW Nowcast Equities Etc. Etc. The Science Nowcasting and Forecasting
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AN OPEN ACCESS AGUJOURNAL Explore this journal 💕 Open Access    ✅ ✅ ✅ Creative Commons Technical Reports: Methods Nowcasting Earthquakes J. B. Rundle E.,  D. L. Turcotte,  A. Donnellan,  L. Grant Ludwig,  M. Luginbuhl,  G. Gong Accepted manuscript online:  10 November 2016.  Full pselication hatory DOI: 10.1602/2016EA00185  Viewsays classes Cited by: 0 articles . 【40】 6000 Broase Accepted Articles Accepted, unedited articles published online and cicable. The final edited and typeses version of record WELADDAT in funite. This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doc 10.1002/2016EA000185
Abstract
Nowcasting is a term originating from economics and finance. It refers to the process of determining the uncertain state of the economy or markets at the current time by indirect means. We apply this idea to seismically active regions, where the goal is to determine the current state of the fault system, and its current level of progress through the earthquake cycle. In our implementation of this idea, we use the global catalog of earthquakes, using "small" earthquakes to determine the level of hazard from "large" earthquakes in the region. Our method does not involve any model other than the idea of an earthquake cycle. Rather, we define a specific region and a specific large earthquake magnitude of interest, ensuring that we have enough data to span at least ~20 or more large earthquake cycles in the region. We then compute the earthquake potential score (EPS) which is defined as the cumulative probability distribution P(n < n(t)) for the current count n(t) for the small earthquakes in the region. From the count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, we determine the value of EPS = P(n < n(t)). EPS is therefore the current level of hazard, and assigns a number between 0% and 100% to every region so defined, thus providing a unique measure. Physically, the EPS corresponds to an estimate of the level of progress through the earthquake cycle in the defined region at the current time. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. .» Continue reading full article JBR et al. (2016) $ Related content
Forecasting is a probability of future activity in the hazard (earthquake) cycle Nowcasting describes the current state of the hazard cycle The term “Nowcasting” was first used to describe the current state of the economic/business cycle
M Ando, Tectonophysics, v27, p112 (1975)
Report of the 1906 San Francisco Earthquake Investigation (1910) Problem:  How do we measure the state of stress in time?? Elastic Rebound using Proxy Data Accumulation of Small Earthquakes Between Large Earthquakes Natural Time: Cumulative Number of Small Earthquakes Since the Last Large Earthquake Accumulating small earthquakes are readily observable data unlike stress The number of small earthquakes between large earthquakes has a stable average ratio (Gutenberg-RichterRelation) The count of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake can be viewed as a marker for the hazard level Example: “Large” EQ:  M Large > 6 “Small” EQ: 6 > Msmall > 3
Earthquakes M>7.0 in Japan at Depth < 50.0 km
Computed 3/31/2017.  Depths < 50 km
Earthquakes M>7.0 in Japan at Depth < 50.0 km
Computed 3/31/2017.  Depths < 50 km
HTML-Javascript-CSS-Python Nowcasting the Seismic Risk (EPS Score) for Global Megacities And Selected Other Large Cities (>1 million population) Thu Apr 27 2017 11:13:50 GMT-0600 (MDT) Click on Location Name in Table for Corresponding Map and Statistical Data Click on Thumbnails for Full Size Images.   Details at the Bottom of the Page. overdue, based on historic statistics. The city location is at the center of the 200.0 km radius area.
• Expert elicitation is frequently used in forecasting, meaning that backtesting is not possible • Most/many current forecasts use time-independent Poisson statistics in forecasting • Poisson forecasts have the property that they have no memory of past events • An example is the current UCERF3 forecast for California, which has not been backtested
Forecasting with the Natural Time Weibull Method JR Holliday et al. (2014) •  We begin by counting small earthquakes since the last large earthquake (Nowcasting) •  We build on the Nowcast by projecting the count forward in time using the current rate of small earthquake activity •  We combine these ideas with Weibull (1952) statistics, which are commonly used for engineering failure analysis •  The result is a fully automated computation of probability of future large earthquake occurrence • Automation allows backtesting and optimization •  We have built this technology into a series of automated cloud-based web sites: www.openhazards.com
Automated forecasting and risk analysis allows rigorous backtesting. Expert elicitation generally does not allow rigorous backtesting
Latest Significant Event was M6.6 on 4/24 /2014 JR Holliday et al. (2014) Chance of M>6 earthquake in circular region of radius 200 km for next 1 year. Data accessed 4/26/2014 Observed Behavior Time (years) Idealized Expected Behavior Time, t Automating Forecasts Allows Backtesting and Optimizing! Applications/Products The Open Hazards Group Risk Analysis and Management Reimagined
• Public web site • NTW forecasts web app • Ground shaking web app • Structural damage factor web app • Residential seismic safety reports • Commercial seismic safety reports • Cat bond analysis • Natural hazard disclosures (required in California for transfer of property) • Financial trading models for hedge funds Moin Prepare Explore OH Community Search Barthquake Vie AFE A TRAM同年:5018NTISY Protect your family and your home knowledgably.  You have collons when it comes to preparing for an earthquake; What's right for you?  We'll help you learn your risk and give you the tools to make informed decisions. Learn more about natural hazards.  W to know where the next abolione' me strike?  OpenHazards is the world leader in earthquake forecasts. Discovery more about earthquakes and the other natural hazards of cur planet Join the discussion.  Read the latest news, waich videos, and get ins ghis from cur nationally recognized experts.  Then, share your own comments, questions, and uploaded photos with the OpenHazards community Automated Forecasting in the Cloud www.openhazards.com Hazards Viewer Hazards Viewer
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Report Generated: Tue, 25 Apr 2017 Location: Source: PGA: MMI: (34.052115021165484, -118.27862620353699) (34.24070193917228, -118.06713938713074) 19.2135 (%g) VII Difficult to stand. Noticed by drivers of motor cars. Hanging objects quiver. Furniture broken. Damage to masonry D, including cracks. Weak chimneys broken at roof line. Fall of plaster, loose bricks, stones, tiles, cornices (also unbraced parapets and architectural ornaments). Some cracks in masonry C. Waves on ponds; water turbid with mud. Small slides and caving in along sand or gravel banks. Large bells ring. Concrete irrigation ditches damaged. A descriptive table of Modified Mercalli Intensity is available from ABAG (Association of Bay Area Governments). A table of intensity descriptions with the corresponding peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) used by the USGS is given below.

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Residential Seismic Safety Report
For homeowners, property owners and renters You need reliable information and advice. How safe are your loved ones, home, and belongings from earthquakes? What options do you have to reduce your risk? For conscientious homeowners, property owners, and renters, OpenHazards provides a detailed earthquake forecast and home safety assessment. Decide on the most dependable and cost-effective steps to mitigate your risk. With an OpenHazards Seismic Safety Report, the information you need is at your fingertips. Personalized safety score: Based on your location's earthquake risk and details you provide about your home — because you know your home best. Earthquake forecasts: Based on the world's leading scientific methodology. Find out the chance a major earthquake will affect your home within 1, 5, 10 and 30 years. Insurance facts; in plain English. Understand what earthquake insurance covers and the probability your damage will exceed a typical deductible. We provide you with the numbers to decide if investing in insurance makes sense for you. Risks explained: Easy-to-understand explanations of earthquake hazards and tips for improving safety. We will point you to the most reliable sources of information on how to reduce your risk. Dynamic updates: Based on current earthquake activity, your forecast may change. We will provide quarterly reports for one year to alert you to your newly increased or reduced risk. And more — just view a sample report and see. ( PORTOR SAMPLE REPORT.PDF Your home may be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars. Earthquake insurance could cost $1,500 a year. Peace of mind for your family is priceless. Make informed decisions about your risk with an OpenHazards Seismic Safety Report. We are currently experiencing technical difficulties with our ordering system. If you'd like to order a report, please use the Contact Us page. protect your home — don't overpay. Our Seismic Safety Report can help. • Seismic Safety Report Seismic Safety Property Comparison e Shopping cart エ0 Items Total: $0.00
126 Huerta Place, Davis, CA 95616, USA 1。 Introduction Whether you own, plan to buy, or rent property, you need the best advice possible about the finan- cial and personal risks you might face. OpenHazards offers the only openly accessible tool to help you answer questions you may have about earthquake hazards in your area. Welcome to the world of seismic safety. What are the chances your home, condominium or apartment building could be buily damaged during or after an earthquake? After the first shaking stops, how vulnerable are you to associated hazards, more shaking (aftershocks), ground rupture (displacement), landslides, fires, soel liquefaction, tsunamis, or floods? How would the valse of your property be affected? What can you do to protect your investment?  Or if you haven't yet invested, what do you need to know to make a good decision? OpenHazards seismic forecasting is a new concept in seismic safety.  Both the OpenHazards website and personalized reports are designed to help you make critical decisions that affect your life and property. Both owners OpenHazards reports are particularly useful to prospec- tive home-buyers. The reports can help you and your realtor accurately compare seismic risks for several properties. This allows you to choose the safest home possible. and renters can benefit from an OpenHazards Seismic Report We calculate two figures of merit for this purpose. the Safety Score (OHSS), and the Hasard Discowned Valve (HDV). The Safety Score is an index reflecting a likelihood of damage to personal property or to your structure.  The Hazard Discounted Value calculates the home value discounted by the effects of structural damage to the home in an aver- age likely earthquake.  By comparing the reports for two homes, you can assess the risk of loss quantitatively. The safety score may also be used to loosely compare risk of injury. Copyright (0) 2009-2013 OpenHazards Crosp, All Rights Koservol 45) Property Synopsis Property Address: 126 Huerta Place, Davis, CA 95616, USA Declared Value: $1,500,000 Hazard Discounted Value: $1,305,983 Residence: Single Family Year Built: 1967 2 # Stories: House Size: 2500 sq. ft. Construction: Wood Frame Soil Type: Hard Rock This property has a Safety Score of 417 indicating it is at high risk of structural damage over the coming years. Earthquake insurance might be appropriate. Note that this calculation is based on home descriptions you supplied. OpenHazards does not verify the accuracy of the home details,
This table indicates the likelihood of damage and financial loss within a future time interval. The vertical columns designate the time interval from today, and the horizontal rows designate the ranges of loss. The 15% Damage threshold indicates the typical deductible for residential earthquake insurance.
126 Huerta Place, Davis, CA 95616, USA 12 126 Huerta Place, Davis, CA 95616, USA Figure 7: Dollar loss exceedance probability curve for your home. Damage values below the standard deductible (15% of the value of your home) are indicated in yellow.  Damage values above the standard deductible are indicated in red. Figure 5: Peak ground acceleration—measured as a percent of gravity (%g)—exceedance proba- bility curve calculated at your home's location. Shaking below MMI V (about 4%g) is generally not felt by individuals. 14 Your Portfolios
Add a New Portfolio Automated Commercial Portfolio Evaluator Editing Portfolio "Sample Portfolio" Current Properties
Add New Property Change Portfolio Metadata SUBMIT Sample Portiol o Contact Un Lor Oct Server Lis LogOz Evaluator Home | Portfolio Home
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Year of Construction: Number of Stories: Construction Type: Soil Type: 1612 Pole Line Road Davis, CA 95618, USA 1961 Concentric Braced Frame Stiff Soil
1 Year Attachment Probability as a Function of Danisgr Particle 11 Pages from Sample Commercial Report
U B / Open Hazards Disclosures YOUR COMPLETE NHD REPORT DELIVERED IN 15 MINUTES OR LESS! Complete Report Complete Report Free Report Order Report Sample Report FAQ About Us Contact Us Premium Login Open Account 12 Environmental Report a Full Liability Coverage # Quick Email Delivery 2 Mello-Roos Tax Information Your complete Open Hazards Disclosures Report will include: n● Six Basic Statutory NHD Disclosures: 。FEMA Special Flood Hazard Area 。 Dam Inundation Area ○ Very High Fire Hazards Area o  Wildland Fire Area 。 Alquist-Priolo Earthquake Fault Zone ○ Seismic Hazard Area : ● Toxic Mold Information • Commercial/Industrial Zoning ● Military Ordnance • Airport Influence and Airport Proximity • Expanded Natural Hazard Information Identified By Local Jurisdictions • Color Reference Maps For All Identified Hazard Areas ● Summary of Current Taxes t • Summary of Levies under 1915 Bond Act and Mello-Roos Community Facilities Act • Disclosures That Meet the Requirements of Civil Code $1102.6(b) W  Order Complete Report Kibou Notes 2012 Japan Railways – GC Securities Modeled Annual Occurrence Exceedance Probability Curve
EP Curve from Investor Presentation
EP Curve Computed by Open Hazards Group using NTW Forecast III SECTIONS Ehe New Hork Eimes VEEK IN REVIEW In Libya, Delusion Makes
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A Richter Scale for Markets
ERIC DASH JULY 31, 2010 Nicholas Felton It's tempting to pull out the old earthquake metaphor when talking about the latest financial crises. How else to describe the economic devastation — the tremors in the subprime mortgage market, the seismic collapse of Lehman Brothers, and the aftershocks reverberating in Europe? But some academics are now taking the metaphor seriously, pursuing a new approach to economics they call econophysics. The field represents a significant break from traditional economics, by studying financial earthquakes in much the same way geologists study those on terra firma. "New approaches are needed to address the fundamental and practical o o The Intellectual Investor
Hedge Fund Strategies:   Miller Value Partners
June 23, 2016 Using Earthquakes to Understand Markets: Why and How John Rundle
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John Rundle is a Distinguished Professor of Physics and Geology at the University of California, Davis. We had the pleasure of meeting Professor Rundle through the Santa Fe Institute and were intrigued by his work on the dynamics of complex systems, specifically in the geosciences. His work on earthquake and hazard forecasting, and the similarities of these hazards to the financial markets expanded how we think about market movements and crashes. This is the first in a series of posts by Professor Rundle to share his research. On July 31, 2010 the New York Times ran the story A Richter Scale for the Markets. This article was one of the first in the popular media to draw attention to recent research in the new discipline of Econophysics, showing that earthquake dynamics may have important similarities to market fluctuations. But the basic idea is not new. Financial analysts have used the earthquake metaphor for markets frequently in the past. Books such as Raghuram Rajan's Fault Lines, Robert Reich's Aftershock, and Nouriel Roubin's Crisis Economics all illustrate the idea that economic and financial influences on markets are analogous to the forces driving tectonic plates, ultimately leading to earthquakes. Economic cycles that proceed from recession to expansion and back, and intermittent market corrections and crashes, are modeled by earthquake-like events. Market crashes are followed by a series of lesser corrections, which are seen as aftershock-like events. dev.imminvestments.com/current-thinking/income-opportunity-strategy-commentary/ ... see we learn chart mediate by the first the form of the Sign up to receive email updates for our latest blog posts. Opportunity Rising Rates and Trumped Up Income Bill Miller IV, CFA – January 25, 2017 View all Income Opportunity posts Opportunity Equity Volatility Is the Price You Pay for Returns Samantha McLemore, CFA – February 24, 2017 View all Opportunity Equity posts View All Posts Browse by Author Thank you for your attention The Open Hazards Group www.openhazards.com Distinguished Professor of Physics and Geology, University of California, Davis Co-Founder of Open Hazards Group and Chair of the Board, Davis, California Executive Director Emeritus of the APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulations (ACES) A Senior Advisor to the Association of Pacific Rim Universities (APRU) Visiting Professor at Tohoku University at the APRU Multihazards Hub, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan John was Chair (1994-1996) of the scientific Advisory Council to the Southern California Earthquake Center.  He has been a Distinguished Visiting Scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA (1995-present), is currently an External Professor at the Santa Fe Institute, and is a Fellow of both the American Physical Society (2005) and the American Geophysical Union (2008).   Recently, he was a co-winner of the NASA Software of the Year Award (2012).  John received his B.S.E from Princeton University (Magna Cum Laude, Phi Beta Kappa, Tau Beta Pi), and M.S. (1973) and Ph.D. (1976) from the University of California at Los Angeles. In addition to natural hazards and earthquakes, he also has professional interests in forecasting, validation of forecasts, and quantitative finance.  He currently co- organizes (along with Michael Maouboussin, Will Tracy and Martin Lebowitz) a yearly meeting on risk for the Santa Fe Institute, often held at Morgan Stanley, Inc., in New York.  He teaches courses in Risk and Natural Disasters; Complex Systems; and Econophysics and Quantitative Finance at the University of California, Davis.
John Rundle. Board Chair, Earthquake Fórecasting. He is a frequent commentator on earthquake science on the major national news networks CNN, FOX, and MSNBC. . Bill Graves. President, CEO, Board Member.  Bill Graves has worked as the Director of the Systems Science Lab and the Acting Director of Test and Measurements, Schlumberger. He was the first President and CEO of Cisco Systems (1987-1988). Bill Graves earned a BS in Physics from MIT in 1968, served in the US Army Reserve from 1969-1975, and then completed a PhD in Physics at UC Berkeley in 1977. ● James R. Holliday. Treasurer, Board Member, Forecast Validation and Software Development.  James Holliday is a Research Scientist in Physics at UC Davis, and former President of Xerasys, Inc. He earned a BS in Physics at the University of  Kansas in 1998 and a PhD in Physics at UC Davis in 2007. Boris Jeremic. Geotechnical Engineering.  Boris Jeremic is a Professor of Civil Engineering at UC Davis and a Faculty Scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. He earned a Diploma Engineering degree in Civil Engineering from Belgrade University in 1989 and then worked as a consulting engineer in Yugoslavia, Iraq and Switzerland for three years. He completed post-graduate work at the University of Colorado where he earned an MS in 1994 and a PhD in 1997 in Civil Engineering. Sashi Kunnath. Earthquake and Structural Engineering.  Sashi Kunnath is a Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at UC Davis and Editor for the ASCE Journal of Structural Engineering. He is a Fellow of the American Concrete Institute and a former Chair of the ASCE Committee on Seismic Effects. Sashi Kunnath earned a B. Eng. in Civil Engineering at Bangalore University in 1980, a M. Eng. in Structural Engineering at the University of Bangkok in 1982 and a PhD in Structural Engineering and Earthquake Engineering at SUNY Buffalo in 1989. In 2008 he was awarded the ASCE Raymond Reese Research Prize for his work in modal adaptive pushover analysis of building structures.  He is also a registered Professional Engineer. Kevin Mayeda. Seismologist.  Kevin Mayeda is a Senior Scientist at Weston Geophysical and a Research Faculty member at the UC Berkeley Seismology Laboratory. He was a Senior Seismologist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory from 1992 to 2006. Dr. Mayeda earned a B$ in Geophysics at UC Berkeley in 1987 and a PhD in Geophysics at the University of Southern California in 1991. Steven Ward. Seismologist.  Steven Ward is a Research Geophysicist at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz. He earned a BS in Physics at Bucknell University (1974) and a PhD in Geophysics at Princeton (1978). Steven specializes in the quantification and simulation of natural hazards. The Open Hazards Group Incorporated September, 2009 Summary The Open Hazards Group builds scalable software for personal risk management focusing on tail risk from natural hazards.
Founders
Dr. William Graves, President and CEO.  Ph.D., University of California, Berkeley. Previously, first CEO, Cisco Systems. Dr. John Rundle, Chairman.  Ph.D., University of California at Los Angeles. Distinguished Professor, Departments of Physics and Geology, University of California, Davis.  External Faculty, the Santa Fe Institute. Dr. James Holliday, Chief Technologist.  Ph.D., University of California, Davis.
Business Models
Business models in the area of seismic and other natural hazards include: Seismic safety reports for residential and commercial structures Residential real estate natural hazard reports as required by law