UN CLIMATE ACTION SUMMIT, 2019

MEETING THE
1.5°C CLIMATEAMBITION
MOVING FROM INCREMENTAL TO EXPONENTIAL ACTION

Authors

Owen Gaffney, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Johan Rockström, Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research, Stockholm Resilience Centre,
Future Earth

Johan Falk, Internet of Planet, Stockholm ResilienceCentre, Future Earth
Avit K. Bhowmik, Karlstad University

Reviewers

Wendy Broadgate, Future Earth

Victor Galaz, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Mark Griffiths, WWF

Lisa Jacobson, Future Earth
Anthony Pearce, WWF

Vanessa Perez Cirera, WWF

The International Science Council endorses thevision and urgent call for action embodied in Meetingthe 1.5°C Climate Ambition. The Council has long
been a major driver of global scientific research
on climate change and continues to mobilise thespectrum of international scientific expertise needed
to inform integrated solutions to this pressing global
challenge, including as a co-sponsor of Future Earthand other related international programmes such as
the World Climate Research Programme.

Chris Weber, WWF

Pernilla Bergmark, Ericsson
Stefan Henningson, WWF

LET’S HALVEGLOBALEMISSIONS BY

Mattias Höjer, KTH Royal Institute of Technology

Robert B. Jackson, Global Carbon Project of Future
Earth, Stanford University
Daniel Klingenfeld, Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research
Brent Loken, Stockholm Resilience Centre, EAT
Forum
Nebojsa Nakicenovic, International Institute forApplied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Leena Srivastava, Future Earth, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Charlie Wilson, International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis (IIASA), Tyndall Centre for Climate
Change Research, University of East Anglia––

Editor: Duncan Geere

Design: Alex Parrott, Storythings

Project Management: Johan Falk, Owen Gaffney,
Lisa Jacobson

Project Assistant: Krisztina Jónás, Internet of Planet––

Printed by Rolling Press in Brooklyn, USA, on 100%post consumer stock, processed Chlorine free, FSC
certified, made with BioGas Energy. Printed digitallyusing non-toxic inks and wind power.
www.rollingpress.com

Meeting the 1.5°C Climate Ambition has beendeveloped for the UN Climate Action Summit in
September 2019. It is part of the 2030 Exponential
Roadmap 1.5, which outlines sectoral pathways tohalve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 in order toreach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

The roadmap has been developed by a consortiumof research institutes and networks, NGOs andbusinesses and builds on the 2018 Exponential
Climate Action Roadmap 1.0, published for the Global
Climate Action Summit (GCAS).

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CONTENTS“The next few years
are probably the mostimportant in our history.”

06

FOREWORD

10

MEETING THE 1.5°C AMBITION

16

 new worldview: our planetA
on the edge

20

The goal: net zero by 2050

22

 he pathway: halve greenhouseTgas emissions every decade30

Scaling the solutions

38

CONCLUSIONS

41

Roadmap delivery and impact

Debra Roberts
Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group II

5

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7

We need a vision for a world free fromfossil fuels and a pathway to achieve it.
As co-chair of the United Nations Climate
Action Summit’s ambition advisory group
I welcome this report because it provides
just that.

FOREWORD

Our history is defined by momentous societal
transformations: the industrial revolution, the women’svote, civil rights, the end of apartheid in South Africa andthe Green Revolution. Major leaps forward are driven
by disruption from a combination of social movements,
government policies, market confidence, new technologies
and science.
These five forces are aligning once more. We are at the
beginning of the mother of all transformations to stabilize
Earth’s temperature at 1.5°C. The Fridays For Future
movement and Extinction Rebellion have exploded onto
the scene in the last twelve months and are changing
how we talk about climate. More countries are discussing
climate emergency declarations, and goals to reach net
zero by 2050 or earlier. Businesses are calling for stronger
legislation and investors are demanding climate-risk
disclosure. Now zero-carbon technologies outcompete
fossil fuels and this is killing old tech. And finally, science ishighlighting the colossal risks of inaction, and the equallyhuge opportunities from a fast transformation. This will
deliver energy and food security, cleaner cities, lesspollution, healthier diets and economic growth.

8

MEETING THE 1.5°C CLIMATE AMBITION

Meeting the 1.5°C Climate Ambition is part of the second
Exponential Roadmap. Together they articulate how far
we have come and how far we need to go. Step by step,
they chart how the world can move from incremental toexponential action – doubling the number of companies,
cities and countries acting on climate, then doubling again
and again. These are the exponential strategies now needed
to cut emissions 50% by 2030 or earlier, then doing it again
by 2040 and again by 2050. This is the Carbon Law pathway
and you will be hearing a lot about it in these pages.
Along this journey we also need to store more carbon byprotecting forests and peatlands and planting more trees ona truly unprecedented scale. We will need to turn agriculture
from a source of carbon to a giant store, but this will enhancesoils and improve crop yields. And we will need to protect
Earth’s remaining wildernesses – the oceans and land thatsafely store half of our carbon dioxide emissions and shelter
our biodiversity. This report highlights how:	About 56% of potential emissions in 2030 could be
reduced relatively easily with economically attractive
solutions that can scale rapidly. This jumps to 64% if we
use promising technologies that are unproven at scale.
	The energy sector has recently reached a tipping point
where wind and solar outcompete fossil fuels in mostregions of the world. The end may well be nigh for coal.
Oil and gas will not be far behind. Expect the unexpected.
	We should not assume energy demand must keep rising.
Energy demand can be reduced a phenomenal 40% whilestill providing the same quality of life and services astoday. What’s more, people in developing economies
can access the same opportunities.
	And finally, nature-based climate solutions – planting
trees and protecting peatlands – have the potential to
become vast stores of carbon.

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Solutions are scaling fast. More people are demanding
healthier diets with lower carbon footprints. Major vehicle
manufacturers have announced plans to phase out
fossil fuels from light vehicles and investors are gaining
confidence in alternatives to fossil fuels. But progress
must accelerate and governments must drive it. First by
declaring a goal of net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest.
Then adopting a Carbon Law pathway to reach the goal.
All this points to the potential for the 2020s to see thefastest economic transition in history. This is the future
we all want.

Manuel Pulgar-Vidal
Leader of WWF’s global climate
and energy practice“Progress must
accelerate andgovernments must
drive it. First by
declaring a goalof net zero emissions
by 2050 at the latest.
Then adopting a
Carbon Law pathway
to reach the goal.”
Manuel Pulgar-Vidal	
Leader of WWF’s global climate
and energy practice9

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MEETING THE
1.5°C AMBITION

11

Climate change is now affecting people
on all continents and the impacts are
becoming more severe. Scientific evidenceshows that humanity is taking grave risks
with the stability of Earth’s climate system
if global average surface temperature
continues rising alongside ecologicaldestruction. Reducing this risk meanssocieties working together to stabilise
temperature rise at around 1.5°C.
This translates to halving greenhousegas emissions every decade from now on
to approach net-zero emissions by 2050.
Achieving a 1.5°C planet will require thefastest economic transition in history.
This transformation is both necessary
and achievable. The journey has alreadybegun. Here we chart the actions needed
immediately and in the next decade toaccelerate the transformation towards
a safe operating space for humanity.

MEETING THE 1.5°C CLIMATE AMBITION

Meeting the 1.5°C Ambition began in 2015 when 197 nations forged theParis Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Paris
Agreement created a global consensus to limit Earth’s temperature rise to“well below 2°C”, and “to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to
1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”, in order to safeguard world development
and human wellbeing.

Countries have already committed to meeting Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement, but these must be
significantly enhanced to meet a 1.5°C goal. The NDCs are far too weak tomeet even the 2°C target. Immediate and ambitious targets for countries,
cities and companies, backed up with actions, are now essential to cut
emissions 50% by 2030 or sooner.

In 2015, nations invited scientists to assess the impacts of 1.5°C global
warming and provide pathways to achieve this goal. In 2018, after two years
of intense effort, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that a 1.5°C world would be substantially better for societies than
2°C. The assessment also concluded that stabilising temperature at around
1.5°C is feasible, the cost would be affordable and that achieving it brings manyother substantial benefits for the economy, ecosystems and human wellbeing.1
The cost of weak action setting course for a planet over 3°C warmer – whichis the current trajectory – will be catastrophic for many societies. Based on thefindings of the report we conclude that we face a planetary crisis: the need toact is urgent and failure to act in time and at scale brings existential risks.

It will take colossal efforts to redirect investment towards clean energy,
shift production and consumption towards low-carbon solutions, and forge
broad political support to make this transformation a reality. However, the means
to achieve these goals already exist.3 With ambitious leadership based on
the best science the next decade can bring the fastest economictransformation in history.

The IPCC 1.5 Special Report and other recent research firmly conclude thatstabilising temperature at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels is essential and will
require an extraordinary transformation of lifestyles, behaviours, norms andvalues in our society.
Three levers are essential for large-scale systems change:

1.
2.

	
A new worldview. We face unprecedented planetary risks where
exponential action is necessary to stabilise Earth’s climate.
	A global goal. We need to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions
by 2050 to stabilize global average temperature at 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. This can and should be achieved equitably and withoutcompromising other Sustainable Development Goals.

3.

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MOVING FROM INCREMENTAL TO EXPONENTIAL ACTION	A just pathway. We must aim to cut global greenhouse gas emissions
in half by 2030 – or sooner – then halve them again by 2040 and reachnet zero by 2050 – a pathway called the Carbon Law.2

You are here

Despite tremendous improvements in some low-energy technologies in the last
decade, in 2018, global emissions grew an estimated 2.7%.4 A major economictransformation, though, may be underway, and visible in the plateauingof emissions between 2014 and 2016 (see figure 1). In the energy sector
exponential improvements in cost and performance are already disrupting old
business models. Solar and wind power are now the same price or cheaper
than electricity from coal in most places even without accounting for the healthand environmental impacts of fossil fuels.5 Prices are tumbling as small-scale,
distributed clean energy networks innovate and roll out faster than large-scalefossil-fuel infrastructure. Similar transformations in other sectors – transport,
agriculture, buildings and industry – are visible, too.
Yet, technology alone will not solve the climate crisis. Technological innovation
helped cause the problem in the first place and, undirected, it could simply
drive us towards a catastrophic 3°C world. Policies to reverse this trend areneeded. So too are policies to change the behaviour of markets and people.
For example, fossil-fuel subsidies currently outstrip all investment in renewableenergy globally. In 2018, fossil-fuel subsidies reached over $400 billion, a levelnot seen since 2014, according to the International Energy Agency.
The Exponential Roadmap focuses on the actions needed to reach the shortterm goal of peaking emissions as soon as possible and halving emissions
by 2030. The presented solutions, which must be implemented in parallel, arebased on academic research and expert assessment of their potential to scale
exponentially and create virtuous cycles, like those in the technology industry,where improvements in performance and price drive higher value.
The roadmap presents one among many potential pathways. Reality will
unfold with many twists and turns. Whichever path societies take will require
exponential action to transform our global economy if we are to increaseprosperity and well-being for the most people globally.6,1 The roadmap
necessarily focuses on mitigation. Unavoidable climate change will require
adaptation and resilience building but this is not the focus of this report.

37.1 Gt CO2,132018 projection
2.7% (0.8 – 3.0%)
2017
36.1 Gt CO2

40
38
36

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

122000 – 09+3.3%/yr

34
32
30
28

1990 – 99+1.1%/yr

26
24
22
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Data: CDIAC/GCP/BP/USGS

Figure 1. Global fossil-fuel and cement emissions 1960–2018
After a three-year hiatus with stable global emissions, CO2 emissions grew by 1.6% in 2017
and were estimated by the Global Carbon Project to have grown a further 2.7% in 2018(range: 1.8%–3.7%). Estimates for 2019 emissions remain uncertain but similar strong
growth appears likely because the persistent expansion of oil and natural gas use and solid
growth projected for the global economy, according to the Global Carbon Project. Data:
Global Carbon Project (2018)4

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THE SCALE OF THE CHALLENGEIN NUMBERS
400

Cost Range
Average Cost

300

The probability ofexceeding 2°C basedon what countries havepromised to do.7

200

FOSSIL FUEL
POWER COST
RANGE

100

0

197

2010

2017

Solar
photovoltaics

2010

2017

Solar
thermal

16
2010

2017

Onshorewind

2010

The number of parties
that have signed theUN’s Paris Agreement on
climate change.

90%

The number of countries
with national laws
consistent with theiremissions reduction
pledges.

185
The probability ofexceeding 2°C basedon what countries are
actually doing.7

The number of countries
that have ratified theagreement.

97

%

8

The number of countries
with legislation or
proposed legislation toreach net zero emissions
by 2050*.

The years left until
emissions need to peakfor the world to stand amuch better chance ofreaching the 1.5°C target.

0

2017

Offshorewind

Figure 2. Price drop in solar and wind power since 2010
The dramatic fall in costs of wind and solar energy in the last decade has reached a tipping
point where prices increasingly are lower than many fossil-fuel alternatives. Source: Irena
Renewable Cost Database.5

The growth in carbon
dioxide emissions fromfossil fuels and cementin 2018.4

2.7%*Legislation includes options to purchase carbon credits to reach these targets.

Estimated global levelized costof electricity in 2016 USD
Adapted from: IRENA 2018

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17

A N E W WO R L DV I E W:
OUR PLANET ON THE EDGE
In January 2019, Swedish student Greta Thunberg told world leaders at theWorld Economic Forum “I want you to act as you would in a crisis. I want you
to act as if our house is on fire. Because it is.” Every child’s birthright, and ourcommon heritage is a stable, resilient planet. This birthright is now at risk.
From the unparalleled heat-waves across the northern hemisphere in 2018and 2019 to Cape Town’s “Day Zero” water crisis, to this year’s hottest
summer on record in Australia, to an unprecedented cyclone in Mozambiquethat created an “inland ocean” overnight, climate-related natural disasters are
now assailing our planet.
Modern societies arose during a 10,000-year period of remarkable climaticstability on Earth, known as the Holocene. Earth has left the Holocene andentered the Anthropocene where industrialised societies are the prime
driver of change to Earth’s life support system. Earth’s temperature has now
topped 1°C above pre-industrial temperatures – an unprecedented leap inhuman history. The impacts are already more severe than most researchers
estimated a decade ago. The temperature is rising almost 0.2°C every decadeand the rate is accelerating. In October 2018, the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the impacts of a warmer world are– and will be – significantly worse than previous estimates. In a 2°C world we
can expect increased water stress, food security challenges, summer sea ice
regularly disappearing in the Arctic and near-total loss of existing warm-watercorals, impacting livelihoods. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C could
result in 420 million fewer people being exposed to severe heatwaves.

“I want you to act as
you would in a crisis.
I want you to act as if
our house is on fire.
Because it is. ”
Greta Thunberg
World Economic Forum, Davos 2019

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Hothouse Earth

In 2018, researchers warned that going
beyond 2°C – which is very likely basedon current emissions trajectories – could
potentially trigger natural processes todrive uncontrollable warming and pushing
the planet towards a “Hothouse Earth” state
about 4°C above preindustrial temperatures.8
If temperatures rise much further than today,major ice sheets are likely to destabilise(there is evidence this may be underway),causing sea levels to eventually rise 20
metres or more, bringing constant flood risks
to coastal cities from Miami to Mumbai. Food
security will be severely threatened and many
parts of the planet will become uninhabitable
due to the extreme heat. Earth has not been
this warm in over three million years.
This risk arises due to tipping points in the
Earth system. These relate to, for example,
the dieback of boreal forests and Amazon
rainforest or permafrost melting, both ofwhich store vast quantities of carbon. If thesetipping points are crossed it could lead tothe release of additional carbon into theatmosphere, making climate stabilisation
significantly more challenging. The problems
are compounded though, because researchalso indicates that crossing one tipping point
can create a domino effect making it more
likely other tipping points are crossed. Due tothese complex feedbacks, a “Hothouse Earth”
scenario is plausible even if greenhouse gas
emissions from human sources are reduced
dramatically. There is strong evidence tosuggest that these feedbacks are unlikely to be
triggered if temperature rise remains below 2°C.9

19

Existential threats

Climate change threatens people’s lives and livelihoods, and the mostvulnerable are disproportionally affected. For communities on low-lying PacificIslands, as well as people living in towns and cities along exposed, low-lying
costs, climate change is an existential threat. Even if emissions disappeared
tomorrow, sea levels will keep rising for centuries. Climate change is also an
existential threat to people eking out a living on marginal lands and expanding
deserts. It is an existential threat to once-fertile farmlands that feed millions
of people. And it is an existential threat to stable societies the world over as
droughts, floods, migration and food crises exacerbate conflicts. The IPCC’s
Fifth Assessment Report concludes, “From a poverty perspective, climatechange impacts are projected to slow down economic growth, make poverty
reduction more difficult, further erode food security and prolong existing
poverty traps and create new ones, the latter particularly in urban areas andemerging hotspots of hunger.” This is supported by Philip Alston, UN special
rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights. Alston recently raised theconcern that the world is at risk of “climate apartheid” where the rich pay to
avoid devastating consequences of climate while the poorest suffer: “Climatechange threatens to undo the last 50 years of progress in development, global
health, and poverty reduction.”10

Estimated tipping point
range for identified risk areas
1ºC – 3ºC
3ºC – 5ºC
> 5ºC

Greenland
Ice Sheet

BorealForestJet Stream

Thermohaline
Circulation
El NiñoSouthern
Oscillation

Arctic WinterSea Ice
Arctic Summer
Permafrost
Sea Ice
AlpineGlaciers

IndianSummerMonsoonSahel

AmazonRainforest

West Antarctic
Ice Sheet

Coral
Reefs

East Antarctic
Ice Sheet

Figure 3. Earth’s tipping points
Map of the locations of potential large-scale tipping points, theestimated temperature ranges of the tipping points and potential
interactions between tipping points. Crossing one tipping point canincrease the risk of crossing another (PNAS 2018 Steffen et al.8)

On top of this, human activities are placing increasing strain on Earth’s
ecosystems, reducing their resilience to absorb shocks from human impact.
About 12% of all species are now threatened with extinction.11 This createshuge threats to fishing grounds and coral reefs, to Arctic habitats andrainforests, and to many other ecosystems which support the fabric of oureconomies and societies. Warmer waters led to mass bleaching events in the
Great Barrier Reef in 2016 and 2017 that killed almost half of the coral acrosswide swaths of the reef.12 In 2019, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon hasreached a rate of at least three football pitches a minute, weakening the role
the forest plays in stabilising the climate.13

Above: People take refuge on the roofs of buildings following
flooding caused by Cyclone Idai in Mozambique.

Changing our language to communicate the risk

More people and organisations are changing the language they use todescribe climate change. Increasingly, phrases such as “climate and natureemergency”, “climate crisis”, “climate breakdown” or “global heating” are being
used by the United Nations, the UK’s Met Office, the Guardian newspaper andothers. The evidence now supports this change in language.
Likewise, phrases such as “business as usual” or “current trends” should
increasingly be viewed as problematic descriptions of future economic
pathways because their blandness masks climate disruption. Updating thelanguage used must reflect the need to support just and safe transformations.

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T H E G OA L :N E T Z E RO BY 2 0 5 0
There may still be time to stabilise Earth’s temperature at around
1.5°C without recourse to very large-scale and high-risk geoengineering
deployment. But the window is closing rapidly. Limiting temperature rise to
1.5°C will require unprecedented action in four areas: Global greenhousegas emissions must be drastically reduced, peaking now and reaching net
zero by 2050 at the latest. Farming and other land use must move to become
stores of carbon rather than emitting greenhouse gases. We need large-scale
reforestation and forest, wetland and peatland management to protect theresilience of vital Earth systems. Finally, we must develop and scale robust
solutions for storing carbon safely.
The IPCC 1.5 report concludes that this is achievable: “These systems
transitions are unprecedented in terms of scale, but not necessarily in termsof speed, and imply deep emissions reductions in all sectors.” Wealthiernations, with large historic emissions, have a responsibility to set tougher
targets. Norway has set a target of net zero by 2030. Finland has set 2035
and Sweden 2045 to reach net zero for emissions within their jurisdictions.
It should be noted though that these targets often include purchase ofcarbon credits.
A rapid transition to 1.5°C world will bring strong co-benefits in terms ofprosperity, health, security and economy. Heatwaves will be less frequent andthe number of people at risk of water stress reduces by 50% compared with
2°C. The number of premature deaths is estimated to be lower by 100–200
million people in a 1.5°C world compared with 2°C.1 The economic benefitof a low-carbon future by 2030 is $26 trillion compared with staying on thecurrent high-carbon pathway.14 The UK Committee on Climate Change, forexample, estimates the direct cost of achieving net zero emissions by 2050
is just 1–2% of the UK’s GDP.15 This estimate does not cover significant
avoided costs and indirect benefits. On the flipside, the estimated losses due
to stranded assets (worthless pipelines, coal mines and oil wells) is up to $4
trillion if weak policies in the next decade slow down climate progress.16

Greenhouse gas emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure– coal-fired power plants under construction or commissioned, for example– represent more than the entire carbon budget remaining to limit warming
to 1.5°C with a probability of at least 50%, and perhaps two-thirds of theremaining carbon budget if warming is to be limited to less than 2 °C.17
Most computer model scenarios to achieve climate stabilisation at
1.5°C rely on so-called negative emissions technologies (NETs) to remove
between 400 and 1000 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,or 20–50% of the CO2 emitted in the last 200 years.18 While the world will
likely need to deploy a range of NET solutions, for example Bioenergy andCarbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), these technologies are controversial.
They have never been attempted at large scale, they are expensive and carry
the risks of serious unintended consequences. At a minimum, BECCS, forexample, will require a trade off between growing energy crops and growing
food. It will place huge demands on freshwater and fertilizers and conflictwith biodiversity goals. Given the grave risks of over-reliance on untried
technologies, these should be deployed as an insurance policy, not the
primary solution. But, as the remaining carbon budget dwindles, they will
become increasingly necessary.

“We will move to a low-carbon
world because nature will
force us, or because policy
will guide us. If we wait until
nature forces us, the cost will
be astronomical.”Christiana Figueres
Convener of Mission 2020. Executive secretary of the UNFCCC
from 2010 – 2016 and directed the Paris Agreement of 2015

21

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T H E PAT H WAY:
H A LV E G R E E N H O U S E
GAS EMISSIONSE V E RY D E C A D E
The goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 translates to an exponential
pathway of cutting greenhouse gas emissions in half every decade: 50% by2030, then 50% again by 2040, then 50% again by 2050. At the same time
farming and land use must shift from emitting greenhouse gases to storingthem and we need to scale up solutions to store carbon. We call this pathway
the “Carbon Law”.2 The Carbon Law is an exponential trajectory inspired by
Moore’s Law in computing where computing power doubles and costs halve
every few years.

100%

F-Gases
N2O

54

GtCO2e59

GtCO2e33

GtCO2e38

GtCO2e19

CH4

GtCO2e75%

CO2 Land Use
CO2 Chemicals

50% OF 2018
EMISSIONS
50%

2018

2030
Maximum potential of emissions
reductions from cities, businesses
and individuals by 2030

Global emissions reductions potential
by 2030 including newer, unprovenmitigation technologies

Global emissions reductions
potential by 2030 based on
economically – and technologically –feasible solutions available today

2030 emissions given
current policies

Current annual global
emissions ofgreenhouse gases

Reaching net zero emissions by 2050 will not be simple. But solutions alreadyexist in all economic sectors to halve emissions by 2030, as a stepping stone
to the ultimate goal. A list of solutions is detailed below, but the key strategies
are to markedly improve efficiencies in energy and material usage, reducedemand for energy intensive activities, electrify as much as possible, andproduce that electricity from renewable energy sources. The United Nations
Environment’s Emissions Gap report estimates that existing, market-readysolutions can cut greenhouse gas emissions by more than 50% by 2030.19

100%

Figure 4. Emissions reduction potential
Sectoral emission reduction potentials that are technically and economically feasible in
2030 based on carbon pricing up to US$100/tCOe. The assessment shows that global
emissions could be reduced by 33 GtCO2e/year in 2030, compared to the current policy
scenario of 59 GtCO2e/year based on existing market-ready solutions and behaviouralchange. Data: UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2018.

CO2 Fossil Fuels
25%

0%

Figure 5. Greenhouse gas emissions
Carbon dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas emitted by human activities. Unlike othergreenhouse gases, it affects the climate system for thousands of years. Methane (CH4 )is 28–36 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide and emissions
today last about a decade in the atmosphere. Nitrous oxide (N2O ) is more powerful still (265–298 times the warming potential of CO2 ) and lasts a century in the atmosphere. Fluorinatedgases (F-gases) also have a greater warming potential than CO2 and last thousands of years
in the atmosphere. Data: Environmental Protection Agency and Project Drawdown.

23“We are already at thestart of this pathway.
In the last decade, theshare of wind and solar
in the energy sector
doubled every five years.
If doubling continues atthis pace fossil fuels willexit the energy sector
before 2050. ”
Johan Rockström
Director Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research

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Solutions to cut emissions 50% by 2030

2025

2020

2030

Year

2020

2025

2025

Year

Year

TOTAL EMISSIONS (Billions of tonnes of CO2e, baseline year 2020)
ENERGY SUPPLY
INDUSTRY

75%

6.1

25%

2020

17.1

ENERGY’S OWNEMISSIONS
6.1

50%

5.3

75%

50%

2020

2030

2025

2025

Year

Year

2030

2020

BUILDINGS

6.2

9.9

0.2
TRANSPORT

17.1

9.9

8.6
50%

9.2
8.6
Materials Recirculation
Solar Photovoltaics
Product Materials Eciency
Concentrated Solar Power
Production
Eciency
Wind PowerIn 2018, 30 solutions to allow emissions25%
to halveby 2030
were published in the first25%
Circularanalyses
Business Models
Other Low−carbon
ExponentialEnergy
Roadmap. These solutions synthesised
from Project Drawdown, SITRA,
Refrigerant
Reduced
MethaneEmissionsNow, we have updated themandother sources.
with theManagement
most recent data to include new

analyses, e.g. low-energy demand scenarios and nature based solutions. The trajectory for
2020
2025
2030
2020
2025
2030
food has been updated to align with conclusions from the EAT Lancet report. All of these
Year
Year
solutions are market ready and scalable. While the precise mix of solutions can vary, it’s clearthat climate solutions need to be implemented in all sectors in parallel and scale exponentially.

2025

2025

Year

Year

Reduced Demand for
Building Space

4.6

Reduced Energy Use during Operation
Low-Carbon Heating and Cooling

6.9
50%

25%

2025
Year

Mobility and Accessibiity
Mass Transit and Cycling
Electric Vehicles
Ecient Shipping

4.2

Low-emission Heavy Vehicles
Remote Working and Meetings

Double Retrotting
Low−Carbon Construction
2030

2020

2020

2030

2020

2025

2025

Year

Year

2025
Year

2030

Forest Protection
Avoided Woodfuel Harvest
Grazing Management
Fertilizer Management
25%
Improved
Healthy Plant Based
Diet Rice Cultivation
PeatlandProtection
Reduced Food Lossand Waste2020 2030

2030

50%

2020

2025

2025

Year

Year

Reforestation
Forest Protection
Improved Forest Management
3.4
Avoided WoodfuelHarvestPastureManagement 3.4
Grazing Management
BiocharFertilizer Management
Improved Agriculture Practices
25%
Improved Rice Cultivation
Agroforestry
50%

Peatland Protection
Peatland Restoration
2020 2030

2030

NATURE BASED SOURCES

Figure 6. Sectoral roadmap to halve emissions by 2030
Proposed trajectories for emissions to peak in 2020 to approximately halve emissions by 2030 (y-axis
shows the sector’s annual emissions in %). Each trajectory shows the overall sector emissions and the
5.6
6.9
5.3
relative contribution to emissions reductions from existing
scalable solutions, eg solar photovoltaics
or electrical vehicles. In addition, Nature Based Sinks, which provides the possibility to sequester
75%
75%
greenhouse gases, is shown on the right. The number inset in each trajectory indicates emissions in2020 and 2030 respectively in billions of tonnes (Gt) of CO2e per year for each emitting sector, and theForestProtection
storagehealthyplant-based food
50%to more
50% potential for nature based sinks. The proposed global shift
AvoidedWoodfuel
Harvestcan prevent the increase in emissions caused by e.g. population growth, and reduce
emissionsfrom
Grazing
Management
the food sector 5% by 2030. Nature-based sources can avoid emissions of 3.5 Gt CO2e by 2030 and
Fertilizer Management
newnature-based sinks can store 9.1 Gt CO2e by 2030.
25%
25%
Healthy Plant Based Diet
Improved Rice Cultivation
ReducedFood
LosstheandWastecontribution of emitting sectors
PeatlandThe grey bar
to the leftshows
relativefor the Protection
assumed 2020

baseline emissions of 54 billions tonnes of CO2e, i.e. it is including food and nature based emission
2020
2025
2030
2020
2025
sources but excluding nature-based sinks.The Energy Supply trajectory addresses both the energy
Year
Year
sector’s own emissions (6.1 Gt) and emissions related to providing electricity and heat to other sectors(e.g. industry and buildings) with distribution visualized by the fields above the grey bar.

0

2020

2025

2025

Year

Year

2030

NATURE BASED SINKS

0

3.4

2030

Reforestation
Improved Forest Management
Pasture Management
Biochar
Improved Agriculture Practices
Agroforestry
Peatland Restoration
2020

2025
Year

-9.1

2030

Carbon storage potential

25%

75%
Annual emissions

50%

Annual emissions

Annual emissions

Annual emissions

Annual emissions

Mobility and
50%Accessibiity
4.2
4.2
Mass Transit and Cycling
Electric Vehicles
Ecient Shipping
25%
Healthy
Plant Based Diet
Low-emission Heavy
VehiclesReducedFood Loss and Waste
Remote Working and Meetings

FOOD CONSUMPTION

0.3
8.6
FOOD
NATURE BASEDCONSUMPTIONSOURCES
75%
5.6

25%

2030

0.3

BUILDINGS

75%

2020

2030

TRANSPORTINDUSTRY

Annual emissions

18.5

Annual emissions

2020

2030

50%

75%

75%

0

6.9

5.3

NATURE BASED S

Carbon storage potential

25%

Mobilityand Accessibiity
50%
50%
Reduced Demand for
Reduced Demand
for
8.6
8.6
Materials Recirculation
4.6
4.6
Building Space
Building Space Mass Transit and Cycling
Product Materials
Eciency
VehiclesReducedEnergy Use during Operation Reduced Energy Electric
Use during
Operation
Production25%
EciencyEcient
Shipping
25%Heating
Low-Carbon Heating and Cooling25% Low-Carbon
and Cooling
Circular BusinessDouble
ModelsRetrotting
Low-emission Heavy Vehicles
Double Retrotting
Refrigerant Management
Remote Working and Meetings
Low−Carbon Construction
Low−Carbon Construction
50%

75%

75%

6.9

5.6
5.3

BASED SINKS
NATURE BASEDNATURE
SOURCES

Carbon storage potential

2020

25%

9.2
9.2
Materials Recirculation
Solar Photovoltaics
Product
Materials Eciency
Concentrated SolarPower
Production Eciency
Wind Power
25%
CircularBusiness Models
Other Low−carbon
EnergyRefrigerant
Reduced Methane
EmissionsManagement

50%

5.6

8.6

75%

75%

NATURE BASED SOURCES
FOOD CONSUMPTION

Annual emissions

25%

50%

8.6

9.9

75%

75%
Annual emissions

Solar Photovoltaics
Concentrated Solar PowerWind Power
Other Low−carbon Energy
Reduced Methane Emissions

50%

Annual emissions

50%

9.9

17.1

75%

75%
Annual emissions

Annual emissions

75%

17.1

FOOD CONSUMPTION

TRANSPORT

Annual emissions

18.5

TRANSPORTBUILDINGS

Annual emissions

18.5

BUILDINGS

INDUSTRY

Annual emissions

INDUSTRY
ENERGY SUPPLY

Annual emissions

ENERGY SUPPLY

Annual emissions

Annual emissions

24

Reforestation
Improved Forest-9.1
Pasture Manage

Biochar
Improved Agricu
Agroforestry
Peatland Restora
2020 2030

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MOVING FROM INCREMENTAL TO EXPONENTIAL ACTION

Difficult to decarbonize sectors

Some economic sectors are more difficult to decarbonize than others,
including aviation, shipping, long-distance transport, cement and steel
production. These account for about 27% of global CO2 emissions from all
fossil fuel and industrial sources (~9.2 Gt CO2).20 Investments in R&D in the
2020s will be essential to ensure market-ready solutions exist to halve global
emissions a second time from 2030. However, reducing demand for theseproducts will also play a critical role in sustaining a Carbon Law pathway.
(See page 27: Seven strategies central to the ‘low energy demand’ scenario).
Some major companies are taking substantial strides to tackle these hard-toreach sectors. For example, truck company Scania has published a roadmap
to become net zero by 2050. The world’s largest shipping company, Maersk,
has committed to becoming 100% carbon neutral by 2050. And cementcompany Dalmia aims to be carbon negative by 2040. In Sweden, the steel
industry is planning to have the first commercial scale zero-emissions steel
plant, using hydrogen fuel, operational by the early 2030s. Since 2017,
Oslo has required that municipal construction projects are fossil free anda commissioned study showed that almost all construction site emissions
could be eliminated in the city by 2025.
The UK’s Committee on Climate Change estimates that reducing greenhousegas emissions by 96% by 2050 is feasible but reducing emissions in certain
hard-to-reach sectors – from aviation and shipping to manufacturing andindustrial processes – will likely require significant scaling-up of electrification,hydrogen, carbon capture and storage, and other low-carbon solutions.

0

10

20

30

1%

2%
3%

27

Long-Distance Road Transport
Aviation
Shipping

11% Short-Distance Light Road Transport
5%

Short-Distance Med/Heavy Road Transport

12% Load-Following Electricity

40

50

60

70

26% Electricity

Dramatically reducing energy demand
5%

Combined Heat & Electricity

4%

Cement

2%
5%

80

Heat

Iron & Steel

14% Other Industry

90

10% Residential, Commercial
100

Figure 7. Hard to decarbonize sectors
Global fossil fuel and industry emissions by sector based on 2014 data* (total 33.9 GtCO2 ).
Industrial sectors that are hard to decarbonize are marked in purple and sectors that areeasier to decarbonize in grey (graphic based on data from reference 20). *Percentages may
not add up to 100% due to independent rounding.

In recent years, researchers and policymakers have overwhelmingly focusedon how to decarbonise the energy supply in order to meet climate goals.
In contrast, the recent ‘low energy demand’ study showed how reducing energy
demand can deliver a 1.5°C climate while supporting global health, education,
poverty, employment and food security goals.23
In the ‘low energy demand’ scenario, global consumption of energy is 40%
lower in 2050 than it is today. Seven strategies are at the heart of this energy
demand transformation (pages 28–29). Each strategy is founded on examples
of best practice from pioneering countries, cities, neighbourhoods, consumers,
service providers, and research organisations around the world:
	Countries like Chile, Japan and France which have used standards andcodes to continually ratchet up the energy and material efficiency ofbuildings and consumer goods.
	Cities like Vienna, Montreal and Sydney which have integrated sharedmobility providers into their municipal transport infrastructures.
	Neighbourhoods like Pecan Street, Brooklyn and North Portland which haveprovided living labs for new peer-to-peer business models for electricity
trading, tool sharing, and product exchange.

	Consumers who have reduced meat consumption, or who are no longer
interested in car ownership or even driving.
	Service providers like Nest and Phillips which have developed smarter,
lower-energy systems for heating and lighting homes.
	Research organisations like the International Transport Forum which haveshown how flexible on-demand ‘taxi-buses’ can deliver urban mobility needs
with less than half the CO2 emissions and close to zero congestion.
Digitalisation and electrification are common themes of the ‘low energy
demand’ scenario as they support the efficient provision of useful services
like mobility and thermal comfort. They are also enablers of the emerging shift
in consumer culture away from owning things and towards accessing services.
This shift has already happened in how we consume media, and is now starting
to reshape how we use and consume transport services, consumer goods,
and building space. The ubiquitous smartphone is the multi-functional device
which – if it continues to displace the need for dozens of single-purpose
devices (from radios and TVs to music systems and cameras) – could deliver
100-fold reductions in power consumption when in use or 30-fold reductions
when on standby.23

SEVEN STRATEGIESCENTRAL TO THE‘LOW ENERGY DEMAND’SCENARIO

1Electrify energy end-use including
vehicles and heat pumps to improve
end-use efficiency.

2
3

4

Utilise consumer goods, vehicles and physical infrastructures athigher rates to accelerate the introduction of improved alternatives.

6

Digitalise energy-using products
and services to optimise infrastructure
and resource use.

Converge onto fewer numbers of multi-functional
goods to improve service quality and convenience.

The central insight of the low energy demand scenario is that dramaticallydownsizing the global energy system by scaling-up tried and tested solutions brings
the decarbonisation challenge well within the reach of available low-carbon energy
technologies. If renewables continue to grow at their current double-digit annual

5

rates to 2030, and then at 5-10% per year to 2050, the low energy demand
scenario removes any need to rely on carbon capture and storage as well as
negative emission technologies. The energy supply diversifies rather thanrelentlessly expands, and fossil fuels are phased out.

Shift from ownership to usershipto reduce material needs.

7

Innovate business models offering low-energy services toappeal to consumers while making sense commercially.

Tighten efficiency standards continually
upwards to deliver cost, performance, healthand other benefits.

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MOVING FROM INCREMENTAL TO EXPONENTIAL ACTIONSCALING THE
S O LU T I O N S

Setting more ambitious country targets

The IPCC 1.5°C report has sparked a first wave of action among nations tolegislate for targets to reach “net zero” as soon as possible, and at the latest
by 2050. Progress is promising, but must spread to other countries rapidly.
	Eleven countries in the European Union are now discussing a 1.5°C
target for their economies.
	Norway, Finland, Sweden and the UK have now agreed targets toreach net zero emissions by 2030, 2035, 2045 and 2050 respectively.
Developing countries like Costa Rica and Fiji have declared they will
be carbon neutral by 2050.
	In 2018, Portugal’s CO2 emissions fell 9% and Ireland’s dropped 7%,
while their economies grew.
	In 2019, the UK and Ireland declared climate emergencies. In 2018,
Ireland announced plans to divest its national investment fund fromfossil fuels – the first nation to make this commitment.
Emissions have peaked and are now decreasing in 49 countries (accounting
for 36% of global greenhouse gas emissions).21 In 18 developed countries(representing 28% of global emissions), CO2 emissions declined at an averagerate of 2.4% per year between 2005 and 2015.22 These sustained declines
in CO2 emissions are associated with concerted policy efforts to support
renewable energy and switch away from carbon-intensive fuels, improveenergy efficiency and reduce energy demand.

“We need to step up
ambition quite radically.
We are not talking abouta small incremental
approach.”
Luis Alfonso de Alba
United Nations Secretary General’s envoy on climate change

These positive examples do come with caveats. These modest declines
occurred during the global financial crisis when economies slumped and therise in emissions slowed globally. Most of the progress to date has been madein the energy sector. Other economic sectors – food, transport, buildings
and industry – have not been sufficiently addressed, so transforming these
sectors would result in significantly faster emissions declines. Moreover,country legislation to reach net zero by 2050 often allows purchase of carbon
credits. Ultimately, this creative accounting must go: countries must actuallyreach net zero.

This is a critical moment in international policy. In 2020, nations are required
to raise their climate ambition and declare this through enhanced Nationally
Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris agreement. Such pledges
must aim for net-zero by 2050 and pathways in line with Carbon Law. This
greater ambition must be combined with coherent policy to accelerate thepace of change to ignite and accelerate rapid system transformation. Policies
should support low-carbon solutions while discouraging carbon-intensive
processes and lifestyles.

ALREADY NEGATIVE

Policies that support a rapid transition to a 1.5°C world include:

31

BHUTANSURINAME

IN LAWNORWAY

2030

SWEDEN

2045

UNITED KINGDOM

2050

FRANCE

2050

	
Remove fossil-fuel subsidies and revise agricultural subsidies.

PROPOSED LEGISLATION	
Establish a price for carbon at a sufficient price level, and apply it globally.

CHILE

2050

NEW ZEALAND

2050

	
Ensure that national decision-making, budgets, tax systems andtechnology strategies are aligned with a 1.5°C world.
	
Develop sector-wide roadmaps in energy, transport, buildings, food,agriculture and industry to halve carbon emissions by 2030 and reachnet zero by 2050.
	
Legislate for higher standards on emissions, efficiency andperformance across all industries and accelerate the next generation
zero/low-carbon solutions.
	
Set stop dates for fossil fuel extraction and use.
	Connect technology strategies to climate strategies, allowing formutual reinforcement.
	Adopt and accelerate circular, digital and sharing economies, directed
towards decarbonisation.
	Incentivise a shift in behaviour towards healthy diets, cycling andpublic transport.
	Promote nature-based solutions including the creation of carbon sinks
and enhance biodiversity.
	
Ensure climate policies are fair - protecting vulnerable communities
without violating planetary boundaries.

IN POLICY DOCUMENTURUGUAY

2030

FINLAND

2035

ICELAND

2040

DENMARK

2050

PORTUGAL

2050

COSTA RICA

2050

FIJI

2050

MARSHALL ISLANDS

2050

TARGETS UNDER DISCUSSIONEUROPEAN UNION

2050

GERMANY

2050

THE NETHERLANDS

2050

SPAIN

2050

IRELAND

2050

Figure 8. Momentum towards net-zero by 2050
More countries are discussing high-ambition policies to reach net-zero emissions by 2050
or earlier. While this is a positive step, many rely on purchase of carbon credits. In addition
to the countries listed, other countries are discussing “Green New Deals” for example theUnited States, though cross-party political acceptance is likely to prove challenging. Data:
adapted from the Energy and Climate Information Unit.

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MEETING THE 1.5°C CLIMATE AMBITION

MOVING FROM INCREMENTAL TO EXPONENTIAL ACTION

Leadership and movements

Cities, companies and citizens have a critical role to drive momentum
to accelerate the solutions required to follow the Carbon Law pathway.
Cities and companies have direct control over about 35% of greenhouse gas
emissions. Policymakers can work with these groups to nurture engagementwith climate action. In the last 12 months there has beena step-change in public action on climate, as well as city, company andinvestor momentum. But this needs to expand further and faster to reachthe critical mass with the high climate ambition required.

Citizen movements

In early 2019, fuelled by growing anger and frustration at those in power
reneging on their promises and responsibilities to tackle climate disruption,schoolchildren walked out of school to strike in cities around the world.
The students describe climate change as an emergency and have demanded
policymakers set stronger targets. The root cause of the school strikes isintergenerational inequity – the costs of stabilising Earth’s climate will beborne by the next generation if deep cuts are not made immediately.
For the first time, we now have a voice for future generations.
The movement is having a noticeable impact and has the potential to bea significant tipping point in social attitudes to climate action. The secretary
general of OPEC, Mohammed Barkindo, has said that the growing massmobilisation against oil is beginning to “dictate policies and corporate
decisions, including investment in the industry”.24
Research shows schoolchildren strongly influence parental attitudes25
indicating that the new movement may begin to challenge existing societal
norms. Moreover, the school strikes reflect a perceptible shift in worldviews.
According to a recent 26-nation survey by the Pew Research Centre, people
around the world agree that climate change poses a severe risk to theircountries. In 13 of those countries, people listed climate change as the
top international threat, above Islamic terrorism, cyberattacks and Russia.26

Cities“The youth are sending
a clear and unmistakable
message: This isan emergency.”
Patricia Espinosa	
Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change

Cities are concentrations of human ingenuity, and for the 1.5°C revolution
they must be engaged. 70 cities now receive over 90% of their energy fromrenewable sources.27 Indeed, on their own, cities and other subnational
entities have the power to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by about one
third by 2030, according to one scenario.19
Many cities are using their political might to work together to drive up ambition.
	9,138 cities (representing 10% of the global population) have madeclimate commitments to the Global Covenant of Mayors.
	23 cities, including nine African cities, have already set net zero targets
for 2050 or sooner.

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33

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MEETING THE 1.5°C CLIMATE AMBITION

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MOVING FROM INCREMENTAL TO EXPONENTIAL ACTION

	At least 230 cities have set a 100% renewable goal in at least one sector.27
	More than 200 cities representing 62 million people in Europe havedemanded the European Union adopts a net zero by 2050 policy.
	221 cities have accepted WWF’s One Planet City Challenge in 2019signalling their commitment to being assessed against a 1.5°C target.
	19 major cities including London, New York, Tokyo and Stockholm havecommitted to make new buildings net zero carbon by 2030 (C40).

Companies

Businesses are also beginning to act. Over 600 major companies havecommitted to science-based targets aligned with the Paris Agreement.
At least 27 large companies (with revenues in excess of $1 billion) havecommitted to net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest. Ikea, Unilever and Telia
Company plan to reach net zero emissions by 2030 and Verizon by 2035.
However, only 15% of the Fortune 500 companies have set targets alignedwith the Paris Agreement, and far fewer have set targets aligned with a 1.5°C
world. Initiatives to halve emissions through the value chain, in line with the
Carbon Law - must scale rapidly and encourage companies of all sizes toreach their full potential, not the bare minimum.
But the role of the business sector goes much further than reducing the directemissions. The business proposition as such has an even stronger impact andbusinesses must make sure they align with a 1.5°C world. This goes hand inhand with new, exponential business opportunities as markets shift. Alreadymany start-ups have positive climate impact at their core and front-runningcompanies has started to change their offerings and actively influenceindustries, customers and policy makers.

35

Finance

The G20’s Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) has
asked companies to disclose their exposure to climate risk. 160 companies
overseeing $86 trillion in assets support the initiative and another initiative,
Climate Action 100+, includes 360 investors with more than USD $34 trillion in
assets under management and aims to ensure the world’s largest corporate
greenhouse gas emitters take necessary action on climate change. Since thefossil-fuel divestment movement began in 2013, over 900 organisations withassets worth about $10 trillion have committed to divest from fossil fuels.
More significantly, 34 central banks have joined forces to ensure a smoothtransition to a low-carbon economy through the Network for Greening the
Financial System (NGFS). This network, including the Bank of England and theBanque de France, represents half of global greenhouse gas emissions. In 2019,it provided a series of recommendations for all central banks to avoid a climatedriven “Minsky moment” – the term for an abrupt collapse in asset prices.

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MOVING FROM INCREMENTAL TO EXPONENTIAL ACTION

Exponential Technologies

From digitalisation to robotics and synthetic biology, a technological revolution
is underway and artificial intelligence, cloud computing, 5G and the Internet ofThings (IoT) are poised to create further disruption in the next decade.
The digital revolution may be the biggest wildcard in the economictransformation. It can influence whether we end up on a 1.5°C planet or aworld 3-4°C warmer - Hothouse Earth. Reaching net zero emissions by 2050
will require rapid transitions across all economic sectors and a shift towards
sustainable consumption, increasingly mediated by technology. This means
the digital revolution is an essential tool to support societal goals. 28, 29
Exponential technological development can considerably reduce energy
consumption and material waste in all sectors, while supporting global health,sustainability and economic goals. It can also enable rapid transformation
through new disruptive business models.
When it comes to applying the Carbon Law, the digital sector has the potential
to directly reduce fossil-fuel emissions 15% by 203030 and indirectly support
a further reduction of 35% through influence of consumer and businessdecisions and systems transformation.
For example:
	Solar, wind, storage and smart grid technology supported by digitalsolutions, will enable electrification, decentralisation and greening of
the energy system.
	Energy usage in buildings can be brought down by increased space
utilization through new digitally enabled sharing models.
	Mobility as a service, electrification, and autonomous vehicles connected
to one another can tap the value of unused vehicles.
	Digitalisation can improve delivery by optimising shipments, routes andtraffic systems.
	Artificial Intelligence can be applied to design products for re-purpose,sharing, re-use and recycling as the new default.

	Deforestation can now be predicted and detected through digitalsolutions which helps take proactive action, and to monitor and improve
agriculture, reforestation and peatland restoration.
	Through the use of Internet of Things, AI, 5G and digital-twin technology,
the need for more roads and physical infrastructure can be dramaticallyreduced through optimizing existing infrastructure.

Supporting societal goals

While digitalisation and emerging technologies can contribute to reducing
greenhouse gas emissions, many online platforms could be better utilised
for the benefits of society. Platforms such as social media, search andeCommerce now influence the behaviour of about four billion consumers andproducers every day – over half the population of the planet.
As well as influencing consumer behaviour – advertising revenue is now
predominantly about online presence – these platforms now increasingly
influence the flow of information in the world. This is influencing democratic
processes by enabling disinformation campaigns and algorithmic propaganda– but also offers opportunities to accelerate the climate movement.
While some of the leading technology companies have ambitious internalsustainability targets, the conversation about how they use their influence
to support the rest of society is less well developed. Given the power ofdigital platforms, it is time for a new social contract between them andsociety. Specifically for these companies, this means starting with a strong
commitment to using technology for the good of society, promising to makelow-carbon solutions the default, enabling shifts to low-carbon consumption,and promoting fact-based worldviews.
To avoid unintended consequences from technology, the potential
impacts of early-stage innovations should be assessed and learnt from.
Innovations with high positive climate-impact potential must be strongly
supported in the coming decade.31“Preventing irreversible climate
disruption is the race of our lives,and for our lives. It is a race that
we can and must win.”
António Guterres
UN Secretary-General37

WWW.EXPONENTIALROADMAP.ORG

CONCLUSIONS

39

Slow policy progress over 30 years meansthat incremental decarbonization is nolonger an option. Only decisive and rapid
action can reduce the risk of catastrophic
climate change, and simultaneously improve
the quality of life for millions of people.
Without decisive action to drive the fastest
and fairest economic transition in history,
this generation of leaders is handing thenext generation an increasingly destabilized
climate and Earth system. Indeed, decisions
made today about infrastructure
investments in energy systems, roads,
railways, ships, aircraft and buildings will
influence whether global warming can bestabilised around 1.5°C or not this century.
Ten years ago a global goal to reach net-zero emissions
by 2050 seemed politically unlikely. Now, the latest scienceclearly shows this goal is necessary, achievable and desirable– a 1.5°C planet will provide the greatest good for the mostpeople. And countries are starting to adopt goals andWWW.EXPONENTIALROADMAP.ORG

legislation more closely aligned with this science. Halving emissions
every decade using proven measures across society and the economy
can deliver on this goal. Achieving it will substantially reduce risks ofcatastrophic climatic impacts, but not eliminate these risks entirely.
The technologies and solutions needed to cut emissions rapidly are available,
can scale quickly and are affordable. They must be accelerated by strong
policy, climate leadership, exponential technology and finance. The economictransition will bring significant benefits from reduced pollution to improved
health and economic growth. Indeed, the transformation is the biggest
economic opportunity of this generation.

“It always seems
impossible until it’s done”
Nelson Mandela

Reaching the 2050 goal of net zero emissions globally will help ensure
the continuation of the conditions that have allowed human civilisation
to flourish over the past 10,000 years. This is every child’s birthright.

41

R OA D M A P D E L I V E RY
A N D I M PAC T
Meeting the 1.5°C Climate Ambition is published along with the Exponential
Roadmap 1.5 report and released at the UN Climate Action Summit in New
York, September 2019. The Exponential Roadmap 1.5 follows directly from theExponential Climate Action Roadmap 1.0 report, which was launched at the
opening plenary of the Global Climate Action Summit (GCAS) in September
2018 by Johan Rockström and Christiana Figueres.
It was the first major international report fully aligned with the requirements of
the IPCC 1.5 degree report, which stated that the world must halve emissions
by 2030 and has achieved strong impact. The roadmap also provided thefoundation for two declarations: the Step Up Declaration signed by 20 frontrunning companies, including Ericsson, Salesforce, Cisco, Uber, and HP, toaccelerate action, and the Speedwell Declaration led by New Energy Nexus andWWF and signed by 327 CEOs of tech start ups committed to rapid action.
The Exponential Roadmap 1.5 provides an update to the first roadmap,
based on new data and research as well as quantifying the scale of growth
in climate leadership required from cities, companies, nations and citizen
initiatives. It provides a comprehensive summary of proven solutions thatdeliver emissions, energy and material savings while driving prosperity.
And it highlights how these solutions can be accelerated with policy,
climate leadership, and technology.

WWW.EXPONENTIALROADMAP.ORG

REFERENCES
1. IPCC. Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC
Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre- industrial
levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context ofstrengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable
development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Geneva, Switzerland: World
Meteorological Organization, IPCC (2018).
2. J. Rockström, et al., A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science355.6331, 1269-1271 (2017).
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