Harnessing
GREEN HYDROGENOPPORTUNITIES FOR DEEP DECARBONISATION IN INDIA

Low Carbon
Products

Ammonia

Electrolyser

Electrolyser
Fuel cell

Report / June 2022

Authors & Acknowledgments
Authors
Kowtham Raj, NITI Aayog
Pranav Lakhina, RMI
Clay Stranger, RMI

Leadership
The team is grateful for the mentorship and inputs provided by:
Amitabh Kant, NITI Aayog
Dr. Rakesh Sarwal, NITI Aayog
Rajnath Ram, NITI Aayog
Manoj Kumar Upadhyay, NITI Aayog

Contacts
For more information, contact: rajnath-pc@gov.in / info@rmi.org

Acknowledgments
The team is grateful for the input and contributions received:
Thomas Koch Blank, RMI
Patrick Molloy, RMI
Emily Beagle, RMI
Akshima Ghate, RMI India
Jagabanta Ningthoujam, RMI India
Arjun Gupta, RMI India
Isha Kulkarni, RMI India
Nikunj Deep Singh, NITI Aayog
We would also like to thank the following organizations who provided valuable inputs that shaped
the contour of the report:
Ministry of Power (MoP)The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW)
Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
Engineers India Limited (EIL)

Copyrights and Citation
NITI Aayog: https://www.niti.gov.in/documents/reports/
RMI: https://rmi.org/insight/harnessing-green-hydrogen/
RMI values collaboration and aims to accelerate the energy transitiowork through the Creative
Commons CC BY-SA 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
All images used are from iStock.com and shutterstock unless otherwise noted.
Cover page desiged by: YAAP. Report design by: Ants at work

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3About Us

About NITI Aayog
The National Institution for Transforming India (NITI Aayog) was formed via a resolution of theUnion Cabinet on 1 January 2015. NITI Aayog is the premier policy ‘Think Tank’ of the Governmentof India, providing both directional and policy inputs. While designing strategic and long-term
policies and programmes for the Government of India, NITI Aayog also provides relevant technicaladvice to the Centre and States. The Government of India, in keeping with its reform agenda,
constituted the NITI Aayog to replace the Planning Commission instituted in 1950. This was done inorder to better serve the needs and aspirations of the people of India. An important evolutionarychange from the past, NITI Aayog acts as the quintessential platform of the Government of India
to bring States to act together in national interest, and thereby fosters Cooperative Federalism.

About RMI
RMI is an independent nonprofit founded in 1982 that transforms global energy systems throughmarket-driven solutions to align with a 1.5°C future and secure a clean, prosperous, zerocarbon future for all. We work in the world’s most critical geographies and engage businesses,
policymakers, communities, and NGOs to identify and scale energy system interventions thatwill cut greenhouse gas emissions at least 50 percent by 2030. RMI has offices in Basalt and
Boulder, Colorado; New York City; Oakland, California; Washington, D.C.; and Beijing. RMI has been
supporting India’s mobility and energy transformation since 2016.

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4

Table of Contents
05

Foreword

09

Preface11

Executive Summary

16

26

Towards a National Action Plan on Green Hydrogen

Introduction
Hydrogen fundamentals
Production
Transportation and Storage
Emerging Importance of Hydrogen
Global Hydrogen Supply and Demand—Where Is Hydrogen Now and Where Is It Heading?
What Could Hydrogen Mean for India?

The Future of Hydrogen in India
Green Hydrogen Production in India
Demand Prospect for Hydrogen in India
The Potential for Green Hydrogen
Near-Term Market Development

44

Manufacturing Opportunities

52

Export Opportunities			

60

Steps to make India a global hub of green hydrogen

68

Conclusion

70

Appendices80

Endnotes

India’s Electrolyser Demand
Technology Review and Implications for India
Encouraging Electrolyser Manufacturing
A Production-Linked Incentive Scheme for Electrolysers
Research and Development Program

Hydrogen Export Opportunities
Green Hydrogen-Embedded Low-Carbon Products
Key Takeaway

Appendix A: Global Examples of Hydrogen Strategies and Roadmap
Appendix B: Sectoral Demand Assessment

Harnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

5Foreword

The publication of this report cannot come at a more opportune
time as the urgency to take aggressive action to fight climatechange has never been greater. The COP26 conference in Glasgow
signalled India’s willingness to show leadership in fighting climatechange. Prime Minister Narendra Modi put forth India’s vision toachieve net zero by 2070, in addition to achieving aggressive nearterm targets such as 500 GW of renewables capacity, 50 percent
of requirements to be met with renewables, one billion tonne
reduction in cumulative emissions by 2030, and 45 percent lower
emissions intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030.
Addressing the nation on the 75th Independence Day, Prime
Minister Narendra Modi announced the National Hydrogen Mission
with an aim of making India a hub for the production and export ofgreen hydrogen. This is geared to make India energy independent
before the country completes 100 years of its independence in
2047. Currently, India spends over $160 billion of foreign exchange
every year for energy imports. These imports are likely to double
in the next 15 years without remedial action. This report intends tohighlight the unique ecosystem advantages India has and how thestage is set for the country to become a global champion in greenhydrogen. The report works towards a hydrogen strategy that isdesigned to construct a high-tech and low-carbon Indian brand.
If right steps are taken, the following targets can be achieved
by India:
1. The world’s largest electrolysis (green hydrogen generation)
		 capacity of over 60 GW/5 million tonnes by 2030 for		 domestic consumption. This will help India meet the 500 GW
		 renewable energy target.
2. The world’s largest production of green steel at 15-20million
		 tonnes by 2030 — a pioneering effort to make green steel
		 mainstream for the world.

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6

3. The world’s largest electrolyser annual manufacturing		 capacity of 25 GW by 2028 delivering affordable ones
		 for India and the world.
4. The world’s largest production of green ammonia for		 exports by 2030 helping India’s allies to decarbonise.
		 This may require up to 100 GW of green hydrogen.
5. $1 billion investment into hydrogen research and		 development to enable breakthrough technologies for		 the world at scale and the speed that is required.
With proactive collaboration among innovators, entrepreneurs
and government, green hydrogen has the potential to drasticallyreduce CO2 emissions, fight climate change, and put India ona path towards net-zero energy imports. It will also help India
export high-value green products making it one of the first major
economies to industrialise without the need to ‘carbonise’. This
report is a result of 12 months of intensive consultative analysis by
NITI Aayog and complemented by independent techno-economic
modelling of RMI.

Amitabh Kant, CEO (NITI Aayog)

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7

Foreword

India is undertaking a resolute march towards a sustainableenergy future. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pledge at COP26
towards a net-zero India by 2070 promises to accelerate thismomentum. Much action will be required to fulfil these pledges.
Central to a decarbonised India will be a widespread adoptionof renewable power and vehicle electrification. Targets andpolicies such as the 500 GW non-fossil fuel electricity capacity by
2030, scheme for Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Electric
Vehicles- Phase II (FAME II), and ₹18,100 crore production-linked
incentives for encouraging manufacturing of advanced cellchemistry (ACC) batteries in the country, represent a concrete
policy push towards fulfilling these ambitions.
To further complement these ongoing efforts, India is prioritisinggreen hydrogen as a potential solution to decarbonise hard-toabate sectors such as refinery, ammonia, methanol, iron and steel
and heavy-duty trucking. Prime Minister Modi recently announced
the National Hydrogen Mission with the aim of making India theworld’s largest hydrogen hub. The efforts of the Mission has
resulted in the recently approved Green Hydrogen Policy.
India’s distinct advantage in terms of low-cost renewable electricity,
complemented by rapidly falling electrolyser prices, can enablegreen hydrogen to be not just economical compared to fossil-fuelbased hydrogen but also compared to the green hydrogen being
produced around the globe.
Adoption of green hydrogen can enable India to abate 3.6
gigatonnes of CO2 emissions cumulatively between now and 2050.
This can be a significant lever for the nation to contribute towards
its recently announced climate targets and net-zero vision.

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8As highlighted in this report, India can target the following areas tomake a successful transition to green hydrogen.
• Both near-term and long-term policy pathways to reduce the		 cost of green hydrogen need to be encouraged to enable cost		 competitiveness against alternatives.
• A cost-competitive green hydrogen is bound to lead to market
		 creation. But the government can also encourage near-term
		 market development by identifying industrial clusters and		 enacting associated viability gap funding and mandates.
• An emerging green hydrogen economy means opportunities
		 around research and development and manufacturing 				 of components such as electrolysers and fuel cells, crucial to		 enabling the industry to develop and scale.
• A globally competitive green hydrogen industry also leads to		 prospects of exports of green hydrogen and hydrogen-				 embedded low-carbon products such as green ammonia and		 green steel.
India is at a crucial juncture in terms of its energy landscape andgreen hydrogen has a critical role to play to make the nation selfreliant and energy-independent. Hydrogen can be an energy moleculethat is truly ‘made-in-India’ and that can contribute to the country’s
energy security and long-term economic competitiveness. India
has the unique opportunity to capitalise on this new technology
and become a world leader in green hydrogen production and its
applications.
We would like to congratulate NITI Aayog for its leadership andpartnership in the development of this report and for laying out agreen hydrogen roadmap. We hope this report will provide useful
inputs for the National Hydrogen Mission and its planning andimplementation.
Clay Stranger (Managing Director, RMI)

Harnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

9Preface

The Ministry of Power (MoP) recently unveiled the first part of India’s much awaited
Green Hydrogen Policy on February 17, 2022. The policy is one of the key outcomesof the National Hydrogen Mission which was launched by the Hon’ble Prime Minister,
Shri Narendra Modi, on India’s 75th Independence Day last year. It marks the culminationof months of efforts across multiple ministries and stakeholder groups, and affirms
India’s intent to be a global green hydrogen hub.
There is also an increased consensus around the world that concerted steps need tobe taken to reduce global warming to levels less than 2°C and if possible to cap it at
1.5°C higher than pre-industrial levels. Various countries have pledged their Nationally
Determined Contributions to ensure energy transition and reduce emissions.
This report aspires to serve as one of the key knowledge bases for the benefit of India’s
Green Hydrogen Policy discourse and private sector investment decisions. It wasdeveloped over the course of a year by the NITI Aayog team with RMI as the knowledge
partner. Beyond primary analysis, the report takes into account views expressed during
stakeholder engagements across academia, think tanks, private sector entities, andstartups. The report aims at providing the much-needed direction and insight for the
stakeholders to act on at this crucial juncture of industry building.

India’s Green Hydrogen Policy
Most large economies including India have committed to net zero targets. Transition to Green Hydrogen andGreen Ammonia is one of the major requirements for reduction of emissions, especially in the hard to abate
sectors. Government of India have had under consideration a number of policy measures in order to facilitate
the transition from fossil fuel I fossil fuel based feed stocks to Green Hydrogen / Green Ammonia both asenergy carriers and as chemical feed stock for different sectors. After careful consideration, the Governmentof India have framed the policy on Green Hydrogen which provides the following:
1. Green Hydrogen / Green Ammonia shall be defined as Hydrogen / Ammonia produced by way of 		electrolysis of water using Renewable Energy; including Renewable Energy which has been banked
and the Hydrogen/Ammonia produced from biomass.

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10

2. The waiver of inter-state transmission charges shall be granted for a period of 25 years to the producer ofGreen Hydrogen and Green Ammonia from the projects commissioned before 30th June 2025.
3. Green Hydrogen / Green Ammonia can be manufactured by a developer by using Renewable Energy froma co-located Renewable Energy plant, or sourced from a remotely located Renewable Energy plants, 		whether set up by the same developer, or a third party or procured renewable energy from the Power
Exchange. Green Hydrogen/Green Ammonia plants will be granted Open Access for sourcing of Renewable
Energy within 15 days of receipt of application complete in all respects. The Open Access charges shall be inaccordance with Rules as laid down.
4. Banking shall be permitted for a period of 30 days for Renewable Energy used for making Green Hydrogen/ Green Ammonia.
5. The charges for banking shall be as fixed by the State Commission which shall not be more than the costdifferential between the average tariff of renewable energy bought by the distribution licensee during theprevious year and the average market clearing price (MCP) in the Day Ahead Market (DAM) during themonth in which the Renewable Energy has been banked.
6. Connectivity, at the generation end and the Green Hydrogen / Green Ammonia manufacturing end, tothe ISTS for Renewable Energy capacity set up for the purpose of manufacturing Green Hydrogen / Green
Ammonia shall be granted on priority under the Electricity (Transmission system planning, development
and recovery of Inter State Transmission charges) Rules 2021.
7. Land in Renewable Energy Parks can be allotted for the manufacture of Green Hydrogen / Green Ammonia.
8. The Government of India proposes to set up Manufacturing Zones. Green Hydrogen / Green Ammonia
production plant can be set up in any of the Manufacturing Zones.
9. Manufacturers of Green Hydrogen / Green Ammonia shall be allowed to set up bunkers near Ports forstorage of Green Ammonia for export / use by shipping. The land for the storage purpose shall be provided
by the respective Port Authorities at applicable charges.
10. Renewable Energy consumed for the production of Green Hydrogen / Green Ammonia shall count towards
RPO compliance of the consuming entity. The renewable energy consumed beyond obligation of the 		producer shall count towards RPO compliance of the DISCOM in whose area the project is located.
11. Distribution licensees may also procure and supply Renewable Energy to the manufacturers of Green
Hydrogen / Green Ammonia in their States. In such cases, the Distribution licensee shall only charge 		the cost of procurement as well as the wheeling charges and a small margin as determined by theState Commission.
12. Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) will establish a single portal for all statutory clearances andpermissions required for manufacture, transportation, storage and distribution of Green Hydrogen / Green
Ammonia. The concerned agencies/authorities will be requested to provide the clearances and permissions
in a time-bound manner, preferably within a period of 30 days from the date of application.
13. In order to achieve competitive prices, MNRE may aggregate demand from different sectors and haveconsolidated bids conducted for procurement of Green Hydrogen/Green Ammonia through any of thedesignated implementing agencies.

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11

Executive
SummaryExecutive Summary
Hydrogen, as an energy carrier, is becoming crucial
for achieving decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors.
Many sectors such as iron ore and steel, fertilizers,
refining, methanol, and maritime shipping emit majoramounts of CO2, and carbon-free hydrogen will play a
critical role in enabling deep decarbonization. For otherhigh-emitting sectors, such as heavy-duty trucking andaviation, hydrogen is among the main options being
explored with an outlook to be the preferred solution
for several applications.

surrounding the hydrogen transition fits well within thecontext of a low-carbon economy, energy security, andthe larger economic development ambition of the nation.
The Prime Minister’s Independence Day speech on
August 15th, 2021, signalling the launch of the National
Hydrogen Mission, attests to India’s intent to be a global
hub for green hydrogen. As PM Modi’s speech outlines,“not only will green hydrogen be the basis of green
growth through green jobs, but it will also set an example
for the world towards clean energy transition.”3This has resulted in growing global momentum towardshydrogen in general, and green hydrogen—hydrogenproduced through electrolysis of water using electricity
from renewable sources—in particular. Declining
prices of hydrogen, coupled with growing urgency for
decarbonization means the global demand for hydrogen
could grow by almost 400 percent by 2050, led byindustry and transportation.1

India’s distinct advantage in low-cost renewable energy
generation makes green hydrogen the most competitive
form of hydrogen in the long run (Exhibit 1). This enables
India to potentially be one of the most competitive
producers of green hydrogen in the world. Green hydrogencan achieve cost parity with natural gas-based hydrogen(grey hydrogen) by 2030, if not before. Beyond cost, sincehydrogen is only as clean as its source of generation,
green hydrogen will be necessary to achieve a truly lowcarbon economy. It will also enable the emergence of adomestically produced energy carrier that can reducethe dependence on imports for key commodities likenatural gas and petroleum.

A new growth momentum is emerging among various
nations. At least 43 countries have now set up or are
setting up strategies or roadmaps for a hydrogen
economy, 2 including financial incentives to accelerate
the transition. For India, this current impetus
Exhibit 1

Projected price trajectory of solar-green hydrogen production based on decline in electrolyser andrenewable costs

6.0
5.5

GREEN H2 FROM ON SITE RENEWABLES

MOST COMPETITIVE BLUE H2

GREEN H2 FROM RTC RENEWABLES WITH T&D WAIVERGREY H2 PRICE RANGE

5.0

LCOH (US$/kg)

2050 prices:
Green H2: $0.6 - $1.2/kg
RTC Renewables: $0.9/kg
Grey H2: $1.9 - $2.9/kg

2030 prices:
Green H2: $1.7 - $2.4/kg
RTC Renewables: $2.1/kg
Grey H2: $1.8 - $2.7/kg

4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Source: IEA, BNEF, TERI, SECI, RMI Analysis | Currency conversion: $1 = ₹ 72
Harnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

13

Hydrogen demand in India could grow more thanfourfold by 2050, representing almost 10% of globalhydrogen demand.4 Initial demand growth is expectedfrom mature markets like refinery, ammonia, andmethanol, which are already using hydrogen as

Hydrogen demand outlook and potential green hydrogen share at cost parity(without policy intervention)

30.0

100%

Total Hydrogen Demand (Million Tonnes)

POWER

90%

HDV
25.0

STEEL

80%

METHANOL
20.0

AMMONIA70%

REFINERYSHARE OF GREEN H2

60%
50%

15.0

40%
10.0

30%

Green Hydrogen Share

Exhibit 2

industrial feedstock and in chemical processes. In thelonger term, steel and heavy-duty trucking are likely todrive the majority of demand growth, accounting foralmost 52% of total demand by 2050.5

20%

5.0

10%
0%

0.0
2020

2030

2040

2050

Source: MoS, MoC&F, MoPNG, IEA, TERI, BCG, World Bank, RMI Analysis

From a price parity basis alone, green hydrogen’s shareof this demand could grow from 16% in 2030 to almost
94% by 2050. This translates to an implied cumulativeelectrolyser capacity demand of 20 GW by 2030 and
226 GW by 2050, promising a sizeable opportunity forindigenous manufacturing of a global emerging energy
technology. The cumulative value of the green hydrogenmarket in India could be $8 billion by 2030 and $340
billion by 2050. Electrolyser market size could beapproximately $5 billion by 2030 and $31 billion by 2050.
Adoption of green hydrogen will also result in 3.6 giga
tonnes of cumulative CO2 emissions reductions between
2020 and 2050.6 Energy import savings from greenhydrogen can range from $246 billion to $358 billion
within the same period.7 Beyond the financial savings,
the energy security that green hydrogen provides will

Harnessing Green Hydrogentranslate to less volatile price inputs for India’s industries
as well as strengthen India’s foreign exchange situationin the long run.
While the prospects for domestic demand and exports
are enticing, it’s also important to achieve the expected
decline in price. In the near-term, it’s crucial to focus
on domestic demand creation efforts, cost reduction
pathways, and early pilots, as well as to learn by doing incompetitive manufacturing of electrolysers. Limitation ofstorage and the high cost of transportation means thatearly market development should centre on identifying
clusters of industrial demand that could be served by
localized generation of hydrogen.
The government can reduce costs through preferential
electricity tariffs. And it can develop the market

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14through incentives and mandates for existing hydrogenconsuming sectors like refinery and ammonia/fertilizer,
which will require comparatively lower transition support.
Such favourable policies can greatly increase demandfor hydrogen and the accompanying electrolyser
capacity required. It can provide a degree of near-term
demand certainty for the private sector, given therisks associated with investment in early-stage energy
technologies like hydrogen. This demand certainty
can set the stage for green hydrogen to ride the cost
reduction curve and achieve scaled adoption in the longterm. And in the process it can lead to decarbonization,energy and economic security, and indigenous
manufacturing.
A truly domestic energy carrier that is competitive
globally can also provide a unique opportunity toparticipate in the energy and commodities trade. Given
the expected growth in global demand and the disparity
between producing and consuming nations, the need forhydrogen trade is bound to emerge eventually. If volume
growth and price decline expectations can be met, thishydrogen transition can enable industries to shape up in
India around exports of green hydrogen and hydrogenembedded low-carbon commodities like green ammonia
and green steel.

Towards a National Action Plan on
Green Hydrogen
Given the prospects that green hydrogen presents for
India, real action is required for the country to truly
benefit from the opportunities. This report provides ten
actionable steps that can guide a National Action Planon Green Hydrogen.
1. A detailed roadmap focused on all aspects of‘Green Hydrogen’
The recent announcement of the National Hydrogen
Mission needs to be complemented with further policy
direction in the form of a national roadmap/strategy.8
A long-term roadmap focused on green hydrogen will
improve investors’ confidence and will converge theentire value chain and the various government agencies
towards a singular vision.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

2. Intervene on the supply-side to reduce the costof green hydrogen to $1/kg
Similar to other technology deployment and scaling
efforts, government can encourage the cost economics
of early producers. The current Green Hydrogen policy
already focuses on measures like waiver of inter-statetransmission (ISTS) charges and granting of open accessfor green hydrogen and green ammonia production.
Other measures could include reduction in taxes andsurcharges, preferential dollar-based electricity tariff,
revenue recycling of any carbon tax, low-emission powerpurchase agreements (PPAs), and avenues for firming
electricity supply including discounted grid electricity
to complement variable renewable energy (VRE)
generation.
3. Establish mandates and provide incentives toachieve a green hydrogen production capacity of
160 GW
The government can propose clear mandates aroundhydrogen blending in existing (refinery and ammonia)
and potentially future consumption sectors (steel andheavy-duty vehicles). This will provide demand certainty
for early green hydrogen projects and encourage market
development. For new applications, where the viability ofusing green hydrogen is still nascent, the government can
provide incentives such as a production linked incentive(PLI) scheme for green steel targeting export markets.
4. Build manufacturing capacity totalling 25GW
by 2030 coupled with supportive manufacturing
and R&D investments
The roadmap should also identify a timeline and scaleof manufacturing support for electrolysers. India may
aim for 25 GW of electrolysers by 2030, while also
investing $1 billion in R&D to catalyse the developmentof commercial green hydrogen technologies across thevalue chain. Radically improving the speed of regulatory
clearances coupled with preferential treatment in publictenders will help catalyse local manufacturing. Grandchallenges, public-private venture capital and financing
test bench infrastructure could be part of the R&D
investments.
5. Initiate green hydrogen standards and a labelling
programme
Immediate action should be undertaken to further
develop standards and a green hydrogen labelling
programme.
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15

Exhibit 3

Visionary 2030 electrolyzer target for green hydrogen production

180

PRODUCT EXPORT INCENTIVES

160

41

160

PILOTS

12

MANDATES / VIABILITY GAP FUNDING (VGF)
ADDRESSABLE DEMAND (RMI)

120

12.3

0.2

0.5

10

5

69

100

8

80

6

60
4

15
40

Million tonnes of H2140

GW of Electrolyzer Capacity

14

GREEN HYDROGEN EXPORTS

31
2

20
0

0
Refinery

Source: NITI Aayog

Ammonia

Steel

Methanol

CGD

Exports
Visionary(other H2 carriers) Demand Target* Note 1: 1 million tonnes of green hydrogen corresponds to around 11-13 GW of electrolyser capacity.
* Note 2: Additional demand could arise from electric fuels and 24X7 power storage depending on techand policy evolution* Note 3: Exports (other H2 carriers) refers to a possible development of new H2 carriers. If new 		
carriers are not realised, Ammonia is likely to fulfil this portion of demand (41 GW).

6. Promotion of exports of green hydrogen and greenhydrogen-embedded products through a globalhydrogen alliance
The government must explore integrating hydrogen into
existing energy and industrial partnerships globally.
This should include developing collective frameworks andcreating labelling and standards around green hydrogenand hydrogen-embedded products like green steel andgreen ammonia. The government should explore specificnear-term incentives around green ammonia and green steel
production.
7. Facilitate investment through demand aggregationand dollar-based bidding for green hydrogen
The government can provide financial certainty to early
adopters through investment facilitation measures likedemand aggregation, ensuring availability of long-tenor
and low interest finance and initiation of a functioning
carbon market.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

HDVs

8. Encourage state-level action and policy making
related to Green Hydrogen
States should be encouraged to launch their own greenhydrogen-based policies in order to complement efforts atthe national-level. This way the champion green hydrogenstates could also be identified.
9. Encourage capacity building and skill development
Initiate appropriate and rapid skills development across theecosystem including government, industry, and academia
addressing technologies, business models, policies, andgeopolitics.
10. Construct an inter-ministerial governance structure
The government should create an interdisciplinary ProjectManagement Unit (PMU) with globally trained experts.
The PMU should dedicate fulltime resources to effectively
implement the mission. At the policy level, an interministerial mechanism should be instituted to coordinate
across the efforts of the various ministries anddepartments required to achieve the target of the mission.
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Introduction

Introduction
The world is in a unique and necessary phase of energy
transition, where emerging low-carbon technologies are
replacing existing fossil fuel assets and are shaping a
new energy paradigm. Rise of technologies such as solar
and wind, lithium-ion batteries, and alternative fuels have
paved the way for decarbonization in various end-use
sectors. However, there are certain sectors like industry
and heavy transport that are hard to decarbonize using
the current low- or zero-carbon technologies. Hydrogenpromises to address those challenges and contribute to
the decarbonization of these hard-to-abate sectors.
Exhibit 4

Energy density profile of different fuels
compared with Hydrogen
HYDROGEN (at 1 atm)
HYDROGEN (at 1,000 bar)160

HYDROGEN (liquid)(see Exhibit 49). Hydrogen’s specific energy (i.e.,energy
content per unit of mass) is higher than most hydrocarbon
fuels. But its volumetric energy density is the lowest.
That means pressurization or liquefaction is required forhydrogen to be useful as a fuel. These two properties
drive the value as well as the applicability of hydrogenfor the various possible end-use cases.

Production
Although hydrogen is the lightest and most abundantelement in the universe, it is rarely found in nature in its
elemental form and always must be extracted from otherhydrogen-containing compounds. It also means that how
well hydrogen contributes decarbonization depends on
how clean and green the method of production is.
Based on the sources and processes, hydrogen can beclassified into various colours:

METHANOL
140• Black / Brown / Greyhydrogen is produced via coalor lignite gasification (black orbrown), or via a process called
steam methane reformation (SMR)
of natural gas or methane (grey).
These tend to be mostly carbonintensive processes.

AMMONIAGASOLINE
DIESELSpecific Energy (MJ/kg)

120

HEAVY FUEL OIL
BIODIESEL

100

NATURAL GAS
LNG

80

60

• Blue hydrogen is produced
40

20

0
0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Volumetric Energy Density (MJ/L)

Source: World Bank ESMAP

Hydrogen fundamentals
Hydrogen is an energy carrier and can be used for a widearray of energy and industrial applications. It can also be
stored for long time. The opportunities and challenges ofhydrogen emerge from its energy characteristics

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

via natural gas or coal gasification
combined with carbon capturestorage (CCS) or carbon captureuse (CCU) technologies to reducecarbon emissions.

• Green hydrogen is produced
using electrolysis of water withelectricity generated by renewableenergy. The carbon intensity
ultimately depends on the carbon
neutrality of the source of electricity(i.e., the more renewable energy
there is in the electricity fuelmix, the “greener” the hydrogenproduced).

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18

Central to the green hydrogen production process isthe electrolyser technology. Alkaline and polymer
electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolysers are twocommercially available technologies for green hydrogenproduction today. Advanced electrolyser technologies
like solid oxide and anion exchange membrane nearing
commercial deployment as well.

• Other less prevalent sources of production include
bio-hydrogen which can either be produced by an SMR
process around methane produced by anaerobic digestionof organic waste or through a fermentation process
by bacteria.

Transportation and Storage
Storage and transportation of hydrogen have traditionallybeen difficult due to the unique characteristics of thegas—flammability, low density, ease of dispersion, andembrittlement.i Yet technical development and commercial
impetus are increasingly enabling more economic modes ofstorage and transportation.
Hydrogen has three main avenues for storage, eachwith their own use cases and challenges:• Storage Tanks are the simplest
and at times economical way tostore and transport hydrogen—usually in the form of compressedand cryo-compressed hydrogen.ii
The challenge for compressedhydrogen storage is that hydrogen’s
low-density results in the need for large containers—threetimes the size used for methane and ten times the sizeused for petrol 10 —which increases the material costs.
Liquefaction of hydrogen is another way to increasedensity, but liquefaction also has higher energy costs—up
to 30% of the energy content of the fuel compared with
4%–7% for compressed hydrogen.11• Chemical storage in in theform of compounds such as
liquified organic hydrogen carriers(LOHCs) like methanol andtoluene, and hydrides such as
ammonia (NH3) are also gaining

Harnessing Green Hydrogenprominence given the high energy cost of liquefaction
and material inefficiencies of compression. Each modeof chemical storage, however, comes with its own uses
and hurdles, including energy conversion cost and chemical
characteristics that require careful handling etc.12• Natural underground storage
in salt caverns and salt domes
are large volume, low-cost, naturalstorage options, but local availability
can be a challenge.

Hydrogen can be transported three main ways,
depending on the distance, volume, and state inwhich transporting:• Pipelines tend to be the cheapest
way to move hydrogen over longer
distances. Constructing pipelines
usually requires volume and demandcertainty to justify investment.
Additionally, existing natural gas
pipelines can be repurposed provided
they meet the technical criteria to reduce the risk ofembrittlement. Repurposing of existing pipelines alsoenables blending of hydrogen within the existing natural
gas networks for end uses where blended hydrogen canaccelerate demand creation.

• Trucks are also used to transporthydrogen in smaller volumes, bothin gaseous and liquid form, for local
distribution and longer journeys.

• Tanker ships are beginning to
be used for larger volume, longer
distance transport, mainly moving
liquid hydrogen (LH2), LHOCs, andammonia. Shipping of hydrogen iscurrently expensive due to added
conversion costs (liquefaction or
chemical conversion) in addition
to the necessary structural design
to reduce risk of embrittlement.

www.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

19Challenges to a Hydrogen transition
In addition to the technical challenges discussed above,the emergence of a hydrogen economy has beenchallenging because of high costs, supply chain
complexity, policy, and regulations.

Exhibit 5

Hydrogen End Use

FuelTransport

The cost of green hydrogen production is much higher
than what is produced from fossil fuels. Decreasing
renewables prices and economies of scale promise to
make green hydrogen economical going forward, butmuch work remains.
Maritime

Hydrogen can be produced by a variety of process andhas use in various sectors, making its sourcing andsupply chain complicated when compared to oil and gas.
Moreover, as discussed above, transporting and storinghydrogen remain a big challenge and will require massive
investment in infrastructure upgrades.
Traditionally, hydrogen has seen minimal policy support
from governments across the globe so far. Policy pushhas been towards other technology options and end
uses, even when hydrogen can make a much bigger
impact. Lastly, standards around hydrogen use either
don’t exist or haven’t been updated.

TrainsRoad Freight

AviationPower
Flexibility
Seasonal Storage
Peaking Plants
Power backup

Feedstock
Chemicals

Products

Fertilizer, Plastics,
Fuel refining

Metallurgy, SteelFood, Glass

Emerging Importance of Hydrogen
Despite all the challenges discussed, hydrogen’s utility
for selected use cases is increasingly providing economic
value compared with alternatives. This is slowly shaping
a market for hydrogen.
Hydrogen can be consumed through either direct
combustion, electricity generation through fuelcells, or industrial processes to be used as chemical
feedstock. Direct use includes industrial processes
in iron and steel plants and refineries; transportationfuel for light duty vehicles, buses, trucks, trains, andpotentially shipping and aircrafts; and power sector
storage and grid balancing and for co-firing in thermal
power plants. Hydrogen is essential as a chemical
feedstock for the production of ammonia (used in
the fertilizer industry), methane, and methanol.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

Heat
Industry

Steel, Paper, Cement,
Aluminium, Food

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20

While the use cases for hydrogen are not a new revelation,
the emerging momentum is a recent phenomenon andhinges on hydrogen’s role as an energy carrier crucial
for achieving deep decarbonization of hard-toabate sectors. Existing low-carbon technologies andtechniques such as solar, wind, Li-ion batteries, andenergy efficiency are contributing to the decarbonizationof various sectors such as power generation, buildings,
and light transportation.

mechanism. Moreover, decreasing costs of renewables
will lead to a reduction in hydrogen production costs,
making hydrogen more competitive.

However, carbon-free hydrogen will play a critical role indecarbonizing certain end-use sectors such as iron ore
and steel, fertilizers, refining, methanol, and maritime
shipping, which emit major amounts of CO2. For otherhigh-emitting sectors, such as heavy-duty trucking andaviation, hydrogen is among the main options being
explored with an outlook to be the preferred solution forseveral applications.

A renewed momentum
With countries’ and companies’ growing net-zeroemission targets and hydrogen’s capability todecarbonize the hard-to-abate sectors, hydrogen has
started witnessing new momentum among various
nations. At least 43 countries have now set up or are
setting up either strategies or roadmaps for a hydrogen
economy.13 Most of the government related R&D fundingfor hydrogen is concentrated in Europe, the UnitedStates, Japan, and China.14

Further, production of hydrogen through electrolysis
of water can support widespread renewableelectricity generation and can act as an energy storage

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

Lastly, hydrogen can help reduce the nation’s relianceon oil imports and bolster a domestic job market.
Additionally, it provides the ability to participate in theensuing global energy transition and the economic
opportunity that transition presents.

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21

Exhibit 6

Mapping emerging hydrogen roadmaps and strategy documents of leading countries and regions15,16
Current
Policy Target
Hydrogen Demand
DemandEuropean Union

Capital
Allocated(US$)

FocusedHydrogenSourceIndustry

6 GW capacity by 2024;
40 GW by 2030; 10 MMTPA
green H2 by 2030

609 billion

Low Carbon Blue / Green

1. Chemical feedstock
2. Refining

1. Medium and Heavy Duty
2. Buses
3. Rail

Demand Focus
Transport

OthersExport/Import
Focus

Germany

1.65 MMTPA

2.7-3.3 MMTPA by 2030

15-20 billion

Carbon free Blue / Green

1. Iron and Steel
2. Chemical feedstock
3. Refining

1. Medium and Heavy Duty
2. Buses
3. Rail

ImportFrance0.9 MMTPA

6.5 GW via electrolysis
by 2030> 7 billion

Low Carbon- Blue1. Iron and Steel
2. Chemical feedstock
3. Refining
4. Others

1. Medium and Heavy Duty
2. Buses
3. Rail
4. Aviation

ExportNetherlands

1.5 MMTPA

Not Available

40-55
million/yr

Blue / Green

1. Iron and Steel
2. Chemical feedstock
3. Refining
4. Others

1. Passenger Vehicle
2. Medium and Heavy Duty
3. Buses
4. Rail

1. Heating

Hungary

160 ktpa

36 ktpa (low carbon) +138 ktpa (grey) by 2030

450 million

Low Carbon Grey / Blue

1. Chemical feedstock
2. Refining

1. Medium and Heavy Duty
2. Buses

1. Heating

Portugal~150 ktpa

2-2.5 GW via electrolysis
by 2030400 ktpa overall by 2030

No
dedicated
capitalGreen

1. Iron and Steel
2. Chemical feedstock
3. Refining
4. Others

1. Passenger Vehicle
2. Medium and Heavy Duty
3. Buses

1. Heating

Spain

0.5 MMTPA

4 GW via electrolysis by2030

No details

Green

1. Chemical feedstock
2. Refining

United Kingdom

0.7 MMTPA

5 GW/a electrolysis
capacity by 2030

2 billion

Blue / Green

1. Chemical feedstock
2. Iron and Steel

1. Medium and Heavy Duty
2. Buses
3. Rail
4. Aviation
5. Shipping

23 million

Clean

1. Chemical feedstock

1. Maritime

3 MMTPA by 2030 and
20 MMTPA by 2050
(5-30 by 2050)

935
million / yrBlue

3.9 MMTPA by 2030 and
27 MMTPA by 2050

653
million / yr

Grey / Blue /Green> 15 billion

Low Carbon Blue / Green /Others

1.2 billion

NorwayJapanSouth Korea

2 MMTPA

220 ktpa

ExportExport1. Passenger Vehicle

1. Heating
2. Power

Import1. Passenger Vehicle
2. Medium and Heavy Duty
3. Buses

1. Power

Import1. Refining
2. Others

1. Passenger Vehicle
2. Medium and Heavy Duty
3. Buses
4. Aviation

1. Heating
2. Power
3. Energy
storage

Low Carbon
Intensity Grey / Blue

1. Iron and Steel
2. Chemical feedstock
3. Refining
4. Others

1. Passenger Vehicle
2. Medium and Heavy Duty
3. Buses
4. Rail

1. Heating

Export

278 million(annualsupport)/ yr

Clean - Blue /Green

1. Chemical feedstock

1. Medium and Heavy Duty
2. Buses

1. Heating

Export1. Chemical feedstock
2. Refining

1. Medium and Heavy Duty
2. Buses

1. Heating

Export1. Passenger Vehicle
2. Medium and Heavy Duty
3. Buses

1. Power/y/y

10 MMTPA

Canada3 MMTPA

Australia

650 ktpa

Chile58.5 ktpa

5 GW/a (2025)
25 GW/a (2030)

50 million

Green

China

22 MMTPA

35 MMTPA (by 2030);
160 MMTPA (by 2050)

13 million

Green (longterm)

Russia2-3.5 MMTPA

7 MMTPA by 2035 and33 MMTPA by 2050
(export only)

1.2 billion

Low Carbon Blue / Nuclear

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

Export

1. Heating
2. Power

United States

20 MMTPAEU Export/
ImportHub

1. Refining

1. Rail

Exportwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

22

Over the past decade, financial support to hydrogenby governments has increased. The amount of support
depends on countries’ advancement of their hydrogen
agenda. While early support had focused on R&D andinitial investments, much of the newer financial support
aims to close the gap on the operating cost differential
to existing technologies. Globally, governments are
moving towards supporting commercialisation anddemonstration of entire value chains, often throughpublic-private partnerships (See Appendix for details on
country strategy). Nations are increasingly using regions,cities, or industrial clusters as focal points of financing. In
addition to direct support and programs, public financial
institutions are being engaged to support the transition.
Currently, almost $11.4 billion per year of national
government subsidies have become available forhydrogen projects directly or indirectly.17 This signals a
Box 1

growing intent to spur the hydrogen economy, akin to
the support the solar and wind industries received overthe previous decades.

Global Hydrogen Supply and Demand– Where is hydrogen now and where
it is heading?
Given this growing support, global supply and demandof hydrogen, particularly green hydrogen is expected
to witness tremendous growth. Sustaining this policy
momentum is the emerging economics of greenhydrogen production (see Box 1). Although 98% ofhydrogen is currently produced from fossil fuels(Natural gas – 71%, Coal – 27%)18, in the last decade,number of electrolyser projects have jumped from40 to 100, amounting to an increase in their capacityfrom 2 MW to over 200 MW in 2020.19

What Drives the cost of Hydrogen production?20

GREY HYDROGEN ECONOMICS
Hydrocarbon economics(LNG / fossil fuel landed
cost + transportation)

Foreign exchange(if fuel is imported)

Transportation, Storage
and Others

GREEN HYDROGEN ECONOMICSElectricity Cost (Generation
cost + utilization factor +T&D cost)

Electrolyser Cost
(Capex + efficiency& degradation)

Transportation, Storage
and Others

For traditional fossil fuel-based grey (or even brown) hydrogen, the fossil fuel price is the biggest determinant of hydrogencost. Other costs include for transportation and storage and any taxes or foreign exchange risk associated with fuelimports. For blue hydrogen, the cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) will need to be included. The difference withgreen hydrogen is that, in the absence of fuel, the capital expenditure around electrolysers (and any other associatedinfrastructure) and their utilization and power costs are what ultimately decides the production economics.
Central to global scale-up of green hydrogen, are the lowering of renewable costs and expected cost decline of electrolysers.
IRENA estimates an 80% drop in green hydrogen costs if the electrolyser capital cost falls by 80% and the electricity
costs drop below $20/MWh. Additional factors like higher capacity factors of renewable energy generators, increased
electrolyser efficiency, and longer electrolyser lifetimes are important contributing factors that can enable the costcompetitiveness of green hydrogen.

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23

Renewables prices have witnessed incredible declines
over the past years and the economic inertia is expected
to drive further decrease. When coupled with the decline
in electrolyser costs, as technology matures and volume
production and deployment take place, there is an
Exhibit 7

The driving forces of the emerging economics of green hydrogen

Renewable costs are declining globally

Global Hydrogen Production Outlook

RANGE OF WIND LCOE
RANGE OF UTILITY SOLAR LCOE200

INDIA (WIND)
INDIA (SOLAR)

180

2018 USD/MWH

emerging consensus that green hydrogen production
will become economical. RMI’s analysis of IEA’s outlook
shows that the green hydrogen market could be
US$120–US$175 billion annually by 2050 based on a
range of projected prices.iii,21

160

Green hydrogen could become the largest source ofHydrogen in the long-term

India has some of the lowest renewablecosts in the world

140
120

BROWN AND GRAY
BLUE

100

GREEN
SHARE OF GREEN H2

80
60

300

100%

40
20

90%

0
2020

2030

2040

250

2050

80%
70%

Exponential cost decline expectation for electrolysers

RANGE
AVERAGEPEM electrolyser price decline

Electrolyser price ($/kW)

Alkaline electrolyser price decline
1600

2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2020

2030

2040

2050

Million Tonnes

200
60%
50%

150

40%
100

30%
20%

50
10%

2020

2030

2040

2050

0%

0
2019

2030

2040

2050

Source: IRENA, BNEF, IEA

Globally, demand for hydrogen has increased by 17%
between 2010 and 2018, 22 used mostly to produce
ammonia and in refineries. With the global decarbonization
push, current policy momentum, and improvement ineconomics and durability of end-use technologies likefuels cells, hydrogen could serve 7%–18% of global final
energy demand in 2050. 23 Significant upside exists if
net zero targets are pursued seriously. The IEA projects
potential hydrogen demand of 528 million tonnes under
their net zero scenario, up from 287 million tonnes

Harnessing Green Hydrogenas per their sustainable development scenario.iv This
could result in the mitigation of 1.6-3.5 giga tonnes ofgreenhouse gas emissions annually by 2050. 24 Industrial
decarbonization (both energy and feedstock) is driving
near-term hydrogen demand creation. But longer-term
opportunities fall in transport, power, and even for
decarbonization of the shipping and airline industry.

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24

Exhibit 8

Hydrogen demand is expected to grow substantiallyHydrogen is not new; it is already being used for industrial feedstock uses.
Even India already consumes a substantial amount of industrial hydrogen,

Global Hydrogen Demand Outlook
Green demand has potential to grow more than threefold by 2050
POWER

Global Demand for Pure Hydrogen

Million Tonnes

80
70
60
50

HEATING IN BUILDINGSOTHER

SYNFUEL PRODUCTIONAMMONIA

TRANSPORTREFININGAMMONIA PRODUCTION FOR SHIPPING300

40

REFINING

Around 8%of global
demand30
20

INDUSTRY (INCL. AMMONIA)

250

10
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 2019e 2020e India(2020e)

As end-use technology such as fuel-cell scales, their costs will also experience a decline

Fuel cell indexed cost

Fuel cost decline

Million Tonnes

1975

200

150

100
100

80

Learning rate = 15%

60
40

50

20
0
1

10

100

1,000

10,000No. of fuel cell systems produced

100,000

0
2019

2030

2040

2050

Source: IEA, S&P, Ballard, US DoE, RMI Analysis

Given the projected growth in green hydrogen, there
is consequent expectation for an exponential growthin electrolyser capacity. The electrolyser market is
expected to reach gigawatt-scale in 2022 spurred byincreasing installation in China. 25 Almost 40 GW ofelectrolysers by 2030 are already proposed. 26 There
could be significant increase if an aggressive greenhydrogen price decline allows for the replacement ofblue hydrogen with green hydrogen.

What could hydrogen mean for India?
For India, this momentum currently surrounding thehydrogen transition efforts needs to be situated within thecontext of a low-carbon economy, energy security, andthe larger economic development ambition of the nation.
India’s thrust towards a low-carbon economy currently
hinges on an accelerated transition towards a higher

Harnessing Green Hydrogenshare of renewables in the electricity grid complemented
by electrification of end uses such as transportation.
But there is a tacit recognition that materials criticalto industrialisation and urbanization such as steel,ammonia, cement, and plastic have no substitutes andcannot be decarbonized with electricity alone. 27 Greenhydrogen is a necessary lever to achieve a truly lowcarbon economy.
For India, this transition can be synergistic with thescale, ambition, and economic competitiveness of
its renewable industry. Unlike fossil fuels which haveresource and geography constraints, green hydrogencan be produced anywhere there is ample renewablepotential. India is blessed in that aspect. This will enable
the emergence of an energy carrier that is domestically
produced, reducing the dependence on imports for key
energy commodities like natural gas and petroleum.

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25

Given that the cost of electrolysers must decline forhydrogen to become cost-competitive, research anddevelopment and scaled manufacturing of electrolysers
is becoming an area of global technology competition.
India will benefit greatly from enabling domestic
manufacturing of electrolysers (and relatedly fuelcells). This will allow the country to achieve technicalcapability, participate in an emerging global market
underpinning the clean energy transition, and capture
more of the economic gains of this transition.
A truly domestic energy carrier that is price competitive
globally can also mean a unique opportunity toparticipate in an energy and commodities trade. Given
the expected growth in global demand and the disparity
between producing and consuming nations, the need forHarnessing Green Hydrogena hydrogen trade is bound to emerge eventually.
If volume growth and price decline expectations can be
met, this hydrogen transition can enable industries toshape up in India around exports of green hydrogen andhydrogen-embedded low-carbon commodities like green
ammonia and green steel.
This report is an attempt to understand this emerging
opportunity in India better. The next three chapters
lay out the scale of the opportunity while highlighting
possible challenges. The report also touches on the roleof finance in enabling this transition. Lastly, the reportaims to provide useful insights and policy-relevant
recommendations that can accelerate the developmentof a sustainable hydrogen economy in India.

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26

Future of Hydrogenin India

The Future of Hydrogen in India
The emerging opportunity for hydrogen in India rests inthe ability to produce price-competitive green hydrogenand enabling market creation for that hydrogen. This
chapter will focus on the supply and demand dynamics
within India.

Green Hydrogen Production in India
How competitive can it be?
As stated earlier, green hydrogen prices are determinedlargely by the cost of electrolysers and electricity.
Beyond that, there are the operating costs, transmission
and distribution (T&D) costs, and wheeling charges forelectricity as well as specific local duties and taxes likethe goods and services tax (GST) in India. The supply
Exhibit 9

chain model, distance to demand centre, system design,
and utilization factor are additional factors that strongly
influence the delivered cost of hydrogen.
The cost of hydrogen from electrolysis today is relatively
high, between around $7/kg and $4.10/kg depending on
various technology choices and the associated soft costs(see Exhibit 9). This makes it hard to compete with theexisting cost of grey or brown hydrogen. But India hassome of the most competitive levelized cost of electricity(LCOE) for solar and wind in the world while remaining
a net importer of natural gas. Given the promises ofelectrolyser cost and LCOE decline, it is more beneficial
to expand green hydrogen production in India rather
than production of grey or blue hydrogen.v

Current cost economics of green hydrogen production in India

Green Hydrogen

Natural Gas Based Hydrogen

Coal Based Hydrogen

7.0

LCOH ($/kg)

6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Electricity

Capex

Opex

OthersGreen H2

FUEL

OPEX

CCS

CAPEX

OTHERS

RANGE

Fuel

Capex

Opex

Others Grey H2

CCSBlue H2

Fuel

Capex

Opex Others Brown H2 CCSBlue H2

Source: RMI Analysis for Green and Natural Gas Based Hydrogen; Coal Based Hydrogen analysis adapted from TERI and BNEF

Harnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

28

Soft-cost driven green hydrogen pricereduction pathway
While electrolyser and electricity costs will guide thelong-term price trajectory of green hydrogen, there
are soft cost elements that can help reduce greenhydrogen production costs today to help spur market
development. Specifically targeting duty waiver andreduction of the GST and T&D charges, the levelized costof hydrogen (LCOH) can be reduced to around $3.2/kg in
the best case, making it closer to becoming competitive
with grey hydrogen (Exhibit 10).
Reduction of T&D charges is not a novel suggestionand should be pursued. The Ministry of Power alreadywaives inter-state transmission system charges forelectricity generated from wind and solar. Most recently,
this waiver was extended to projects commissioned from30 June 2025, including for pumped storage hydro andbattery energy storage systems. 28 Extending this waiverto renewable-based hydrogen production can drastically
improve the near-term economics of green hydrogen.
Beyond these soft costs, India should strive to reduce
renewable power tariffs for hydrogen production. These
could include revenue recycling of any carbon tax orcoal cess, low-emissions PPAs, and avenues for firming
electricity supply including discounted grid electricity tocomplement the VRE generation.

Exhibit 10 Soft cost led price-reduction pathway for current (2020) round-the-clock (RTC) renewable-based
green hydrogen

ELECTRICITY

T&D CHARGES

CAPEX

GST

OPEX

RANGE**STACK REPLACEMENT

7

5.3 - 5.9

6

1.5

LCOH ($/kg)

50.59 - 0.65
3.2 - 3.7

4

3

2

1

0
Refrence Green Hydrogen Price*

Full T&D Waiver

GST Waiver (18% to 5%)

Aggressive Hydrogen Price

Source: RMI Analysis* Hydrogen price calculated for RTC renewable (@ ₹3.6/kWh) with average T&D charges** The range is based on high and low end of electrolzyer capex price: $500 - 969/kW

Harnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

29Given the low LCOE of renewables, green hydrogen fromstandalone renewable systems or from RTC renewablearrangements will be more cost-effective than gridconnected electrolysis. Additionally, given that the gridis only gradually decarbonizing, the CO2 intensity ofhydrogen generated with grid electricity will also remain
net positive even in the most VRE-rich case. While RTC
renewables could be very cost-competitive today and in
the near-term, there is a longer term potential for greenhydrogen generation from standalone renewables,
provided LCOE decline expectations materialise.

Future Price Trajectory of Green Hydrogen
With an expected price decline for both electrolysers
and renewables, our analysis indicates that in the bestcase scenario, the cost of green hydrogen can fall toapproximately $1.60/kg by 2030 and $0.70/kg by 2050
(Exhibit 11). Regardless of the scenario, the conclusion isclear. Green hydrogen can become competitive with greyhydrogen by 2030, if not earlier. Additional factors suchas a potential carbon price on fossil fuels could also aid in
the cost-competitiveness of green hydrogen.

Exhibit 11 Projected price trajectory of solar-green hydrogen production based on decline in electrolyser andrenewable costs

GREEN H2 FROM ON SITE RENEWABLES

MOST COMPETITIVE BLUE H2

GREEN H2 FROM RTC RENEWABLES WITH T&D WAIVERGREY H2 PRICE RANGE

6.0
5.5
5.0

LCOH (US$/kg)

2050 prices:
Green H2: $0.6 - $1.2/kg
RTC Renewables: $0.9/kg
Grey H2: $1.9 - $2.9/kg

2030 prices:
Green H2: $1.7 - $2.4/kg
RTC Renewables: $2.1/kg
Grey H2: $1.8 - $2.7/kg

4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

Source: IEA, BNEF, TERI, SECI, RMI Analysis

Harnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

30Box 2

Aspirational price targets can be conducive to green hydrogen market development

Exhibit 12 Most optimistic green hydrogen price trajectory

STANDALONE SOLAR
RTC RENEWABLES

0.4

3.23

H2 Price (US$/kg)

3.12

3.00

0.3

2.75
2.52
2.31
2.11
1.92

0.2

1.75

1.59

1.43

0.1

0.0
2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

(Key assumptions behind this scenario: Electrolyzer Capex ($/kW): 500(2020) , 125 (2030); Full T&D waiver; GST waiver
18% to 5%); LCOE of solar (INR/kWh): 1.9 (2020), 1.5 (2030); LCOE of RTC renewables (INR/kWh): 3.6 (2020), 2.85 (2030))

As mentioned earlier, electrolyser price and the pace of its decline will be the most crucial determinant of longterm price trajectory of green hydrogen. An assessment of the most optimistic price decline scenario informed
by a very aggressive electrolyser price decline assumption yields a hydrogen price of $1.4 / kg by 2030. While
there is a degree of uncertainty to this outlook, it is fair to conclude that aggressive price decline targets
coupled with relevant supply and demand side policy support could be effective tools for developing a viable
and competitive green hydrogen market in the country.

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31

Hydrogen Storage and Transportation
Considerations
Storage will eventually become necessary given thevariability of renewable sources and the possibility oflarge and consistent demand coming from industries.
Storage costs could also potentially alter the costeconomics of standalone renewables and RTC
renewables-based hydrogen production, which canhave higher capacity utilization. Availability of cheap
natural storage like salt and rock caverns in India needs
to be assessed further given the high cost of storage inpressurized steel tanks and the energy costs associatedwith chemical storage. Further consideration is aroundsiting. Natural storage options will have limited flexibility
while steel tanks could be sited close to consumption or
production much more readily.
Transportation cost is another factor that can impact
cost economics. Pipelines become cost-effective oncehydrogen demand exceeds tens of tonnes per day. 29
As such, near-term development for large-scaleindustrial consumption could be located closer toproduction to minimize transportation and storage
costs. Transportation through compressed hydrogentrucks looks to be the mainstay during the early phaseof hydrogen development. Given that moving electrons
is always more cost-effective than moving molecules,
there will always be a case for siting production closer
to consumption where possible.
Given that the evolution of transport and storage costs
and deployment is a large unknown, government, inpartnership with the private sector and other countries,
must play a part in both infrastructure assessment
and cost-reduction pathways. In the near term, anassessment is needed on the viability and upgradation
costs of existing natural gas pipelines for hydrogentransportation, which could help minimize the transition
cost to hydrogen.

Demand Prospect for Hydrogenin India
India currently consumes almost 6 million tonnes ofgrey hydrogen largely concentrated in industrial uses
in refining and as feedstock to produce ammonia andmethanol. Current hydrogen consumption is almost
equally split between refining and ammonia production
with a small share of consumption in methanol

Harnessing Green Hydrogenproduction. A small quantity of hydrogen, amounting
to 0.3 million tonnes, is already being consumed forsteel production. Beyond these sectors, our assessment
indicates emerging potential demand in heavy-duty,
long-haul freight transportation and to a limited extent
in the power sector. Our assessment excludes nicheapplications such as in industrial forklifts and cell phone
towers and city gas distribution. It also excludes demandpotential from aviation, shipping, and potentiallycooking, which are currently more speculative andtechnically in very early stages.
Hydrogen demand is assessed under a scenario
where the pace and technology adoption are high, andpolicies are implemented to enable the green hydrogentransition. Scenario assumptions include a high uptakeof green hydrogen in end-use sectors, increased
penetration of fuel cell trucks, a rapid decrease inelectrolyser and renewable costs, and options forfinancing this transition. Green hydrogen demandis estimated within the overall hydrogen demand byassessing the cost parity of green hydrogen-based enduse products against grey/brown hydrogen-based enduse products. CO2 emissions and energy import savingsare estimated and compared with a base case of greyhydrogen consumption in ammonia, refinery, methanol,and steel and oil consumption for heavy-duty trucking.
A favourable policies (FPS) scenario is developed
to assess the market potential through incentives,
waivers, and mandates. The FPS analysis is intended tounderstand the market creation in the short term andhence is limited until 2030 only.

What drives sectoral demand for
Hydrogen?
Demand drivers for hydrogen are highly sector
specific. They depend on whether hydrogen is used
as industrial feedstock with no other alternatives orwhether it requires adopting new technology anddisplacing existing fuel or technology. Further, the paceof energy transition, new technology adoption, and thepresence of requisite policy and financial support will
also determine the demand outlooks for hydrogen. Thissection is a brief discussion of sector-specific demand
drivers for hydrogen.
Refining
Hydrogen is essential to the petroleum refining industry
and is primarily used for desulphurisation of products
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32such as diesel and petrol. Hydrogen demand depends on
two factors: 1) demand of petroleum products, which isbound to increase considerably if efficiency measuresand low/zero-carbon alternatives are not adopted and2) stringent policy actions on limiting the sulphur
content from petroleum products—the more stringent
the standards, the higher the requirement of hydrogenin desulphurisation.
Box 3

Case Study: Refining30

The REFHYNE Project in Germany, fundedby the European Commission’s Fuel Cells andHydrogen Joint Undertaking and supported
by Shell and ITM Power, aims to fully integrate
green hydrogen into refinery processes at anexisting refinery site. Construction began on
a 10 MW electrolysis plant in 2019 at the Shell
Rheinland refinery and is expected to begin
producing hydrogen in 2021. This pathway,
while a substitution for existing work in
refineries today, also offers a pathway to green
non-combustible products and an avenue forrefineries to move away from oil derivative
feedstocks. This stream of engagement offers
potential for the valuation of emitted carbon
and accordingly can link this to commodity
markets. In the lxong run, this pathway leads
to a carbon-neutral non-combustible refined
products production stream.

Ammonia
Ammonia, a compound made of nitrogen and hydrogen,is extensively used in the chemical sector. Currently,
the majority of the hydrogen feedstock for ammonia is
mainly natural gas-based which can be replaced by therenewable-based electrolysis process to form green
ammonia. Ammonia’s applications can span acrossthe following:• Ammonia-derived fertilisers: Ammonia is majorly
		
		
		
		
		
		
		

used in the manufacturing of nitrogen-based (urea)
and other complex fertilisers such as diammonium
phosphate (DAP). The demand for nitrogenous
fertilisers is expected rise at the rate of 3 percent 		
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the
next decade, owing to rising population and 		increasing demand for food. 31

Harnessing Green Hydrogen• Ammonia as fertiliser: Although ammonia is		 majorly used as feedstock for other fertilisers, it can		 also be directly applied to soil, either in anhydrous
		 form or as aqua-ammonia (ammonia dissolved in		 water). Anhydrous ammonia is readily available and		 can be easily applied to soil, however it requires
		 careful consideration in terms of its transportation
		and storage. 32 Aqua-ammonia, on the other hand,		 is relatively safer than the anhydrous form and can		 be applied easily since it is not injected as deeply 				 as the anhydrous form. 33• There is also the potential for the use of ammonia
		 as a hydrogen carrier and fuel for shipping.
Box 4 Case Study: Green Ammonia34

Several developers around the world haveannounced projects to produce green ammonia.
Norwegian agricultural company Yara hasplans to convert an existing ammonia facility
to use green hydrogen as a feedstock, with
20,000 tonnes of capacity converted by 2023
and expected completion by 2026. Siemens isestablishing a Green Ammonia Demonstrator
in the UK that aims to show a full carbon-freeammonia lifecycle from production to use as
a fuel to produce electricity. The ammonia,
in this case, essentially serves as an energy
storage mechanism for excess renewableelectricity. Renewable energy is used to power
all the stages of ammonia synthesis, including
the electrolysers to produce hydrogen, theair separation unit to produce nitrogen, andthe Haber-Bosch process used to synthesize
ammonia. Other industrial ammonia producers,
including CF Industries in the United States and
Iberdrola/Fertiberia in Spain, have announcedplans to build electrolysers to synthesize
green hydrogen as a feedstock for ammonia
production. CF Industries, which has a target toreach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, willbuild a 20,000 tonnes per year green ammonia
plant in Louisiana. The Iberdrola/Fertiberia
project will expand a 20 MW pilot plant to 800
MW of hydrogen production by 2027 with a$2.1 billion investment.

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33

Methanol
Methanol is primarily used to produce various chemicals
and solvents, and its use can be expanded as fuel fortransport in the form of various blends, marine fuel, andcooking. Hydrogen is a main feedstock in the productionof methanol and, in India, is currently produced primarily
from natural gas. India currently produces only 13% of
its methanol consumption with a policy goal to increase
production through the Indian Methanol Economy
program. Future demand will rest on emerging demand
for speciality chemicals and solvents and the success of
the Indian Methanol Economy program.
Box 5

Case Study: Green Methanol35

Most of the green methanol projects underdevelopment are led by Carbon Recycling
International (CRI), which has projects undervarious stages of development in Europe andChina. Its Emissions-to-Liquids (ETL) technology
utilizes CO2 captured from industrial or othersources and green hydrogen to produce lowemissions methanol, which can be used as afuel or feedstock for other chemical products.
The North-C-Methanol project, a collaboration
between Proman, ENGIE, ArcelorMittal, andothers, is a large-scale demonstration project
located in Belgium and part of the North-CCUHub Roadmap.
Methanol-to-olefin plants are emerging,particularly in the APAC region, as effective
pathways for the production of common use
olefins found in plastics in particular. The
utilization of captured carbon and greenhydrogen to produce methanol creates apathway to plastics production that could
further reduce future need for fossil fuelextraction, while developing a more complete
circular production pathway and creating arecognizable value market for carbon.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

Steel
Hydrogen demand for the steel industry is a matter oftechnology competitiveness and fuel availability. Steel ismainly produced from three main processes:• blast furnace – basic oxygen furnace (BF – BOF), 		
		 which uses coking coal for reduction of iron ore;
• direct reduced iron – electric arc furnace/induction
		 furnace (DRI – EAF/IF), which can achieve the		 reduction through use of either natural gas or coal 				 on pelletized iron-ore; and• EAF/IF with scrap steel, where scrap or recycled 				 steel is directly heated via electricity to form steel.
The DRI process is where there is a potential role forhydrogen to replace fossil fuels, mainly natural gas.
Box 6 Case Study: Green Steel36

Arising out of Sweden’s 2045 net-zero target,
the HYBRIT project in Sweden, a collaboration
between SSAB, LKAB, and Vattenfall, will
replace coking coal with green hydrogen in
the reduction process. Construction on thepilot plant (costing ~$150 million) began in2018 and operations started in August 2020,
with a goal to have demonstration completed
by 2035. Arising out of this effort, LKAB hascommitted $47 billion to convert its operations.
Multiple pilot plants to demonstrate othertechnologies are being built. ArcelorMittal
has several projects underway across Europethat utilize green hydrogen in various ways inprimary steelmaking to reduce emissions. In
Bremen, Germany, a plant is planned that would
inject green hydrogen into the blast furnace.
The ArcelorMittal IGAR project in France isdeveloping a hybrid blast furnace process using
DRI gas injection and a plasma torch.

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34

Long-Haul Freight and Heavy-Duty Vehicles (HDVs)
Like steel, hydrogen demand for long-haul freight
will depend on movement towards low-carbon
transportation and the competitiveness of technology
options with respect to diesel and against each other.
Two technology options exist to electrify HDVs: batteryBox 7

electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs). Both these technologies are complementary,and their uptake will depend on technology merits,
refuelling time constraints, efficiency considerations,costs, and duty cycles.

Beyond Freight—The Potential Role for Hydrogen in Aviation and Shipping37

Hydrogen’s role as a fuel for the transport sector
can extend beyond road transport to shipping andaviation. Shipping and aviation sectors use heavy
fuel oil and jet fuel respectively. Moreover, there
are very few alternatives to decarbonize these
sectors, and they are less readily available and more
expensive than conventional fuels. Hence, hydrogenor hydrogen-based compounds such as ammonia
or methanol can play a big role in decarbonizing
shipping and aviation.
On the shipping side, various efforts are underway
to decarbonize international maritime shipping led
by the International Maritime Organization (IMO).
IMO has set a goal of reducing international shipping
emissions to 50% of 2008 levels by 2050. A major
chunk of these emissions reductions can come fromammonia as a shipping fuel. By 2050, 25% of thefuel demand in this sector can be met via ammonia.
Ammonia has a competitive advantage whencompared with hydrogen—its higher energy density
makes it easier to store.
Another option is to power ships with fuel cells
powered by hydrogen, but that route is more geared
towards commuter ferries or shortdistance transport and competes directly withbattery-powered ships. In India, domestic coastal
and inland waterway shipping contribute to just 6%of the total freight moved and is the least carbonintensive mode in terms of CO2 emitted per tonnekm of freight moved, even when powered with fossil
fuels. However, with the Indian government’s focus
on promoting multi-modal and inter-modal transport,
demand for shipping could rise in the future, meaning
increased emissions from burning fuel oil. Hydrogenand ammonia can play a role, but there are still
significant challenges to their uptake including

Harnessing Green Hydrogenhigh cost compared with conventional alternatives,storage infrastructure requirements at ports, and theneed to change vehicle designs.
The aviation sector has the highest carbon emissions
intensity of any other mode of transport. With risingincome levels, the increase in tourism, and increasing
demand for faster deliveries by consumers, emissions
from the aviation sector will grow exponentially. By
2050, aviation will be the second-biggest emitterof freight transport-related CO2 emissions in India,
registering a 100-fold growth. Similar growth isprojected for passenger aviation as well.
The technology options to decarbonize the aviation
sector include 1) battery electric, 2) hydrogenpowered fuel cell, 3) hydrogen-powered turbine,4) sustainable aviation fuels made from waste andagriculture residues, and 5) electrolytic hydrogenbased synthetic fuels. No one technology stands
out as a single solution for decarbonizing theaviation sector; each technology has its own merits
and challenges. For example, battery electricand hydrogen fuel cells can deliver the maximum
decarbonization benefit per passenger-km or freight
tonne-km, however their use will be restricted toshort distance, smaller flights. The other threetechnologies can be deployed for long distance-larger
aircrafts, however significant challenges exist due tolack of storage infrastructure. High costs also remain
a barrier for all technologies.
Decreasing costs due to improved technologies andeconomies of scale, policy push introducing demand
incentives, supply mandates and a carbon tax, andinnovative financing and business models can enabledecarbonization of aviation.

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35Power Sector
High demand growth and renewable penetration
introduces the challenges and prospect of flexibility
and VRE integration. Hydrogen proponents havealso proposed the concept of power-H2-power as
another form to provide storage and flexibility. But
actual demand for hydrogen will be limited by its
competitiveness against other technologies such asbattery storage and demand response, in addition to
the unique nature of the country’s grid and emerging
supply and demand structure.
Potential future application – Electrofuels forground transportation
Electrofuels (e-fuels) are primarily hydrogen-based
fuels that are produced via hydrogen derived from thewater electrolysis process. The primary examples aremethanol and ethanol which can be blended with orcompletely replace existing fossil fuels (with required
design changes) for powering vehicles. E-fuels can act
as a complementary technology to biofuels due to their
existing limitations around feedstock and applicability
in certain end use cases. In the near term, e-fuels canbe utilised as blended fuels with either petrol or diesel,
and there is a long-term potential of using them in
M100/E100 engines (100 percent methanol or ethanol
content). E-fuels have the following advantages:

play a role through blending into existing city
gas distribution (CGD) network in urban areas.
But even there given hydrogen’s characteristics,
there is also a limit to blending in existing pipeline
infrastructure. Due to the low density and higher
diffusivity of hydrogen, existing gas pipelines
should be coated / made of different material towithstand higher compression ratios. Furthermore,
rigorous testing is required to understand thelong-term impact of hydrogen, on materials andequipment with leakage, flame stability, back firing,
ignition and must be investigated to ensure systemsafety, efficiency and environmental performance.
Additionally, hydrogen specific furnaces and stoves
do not exist outside of prototypes.

• E-fuels can be produced at a lower cost in the near		 future due to lower prices of renewable electricity
		 and declining electrolyser costs, hence outcompeting		 other production processes.
• Reduction in well-to-wheel emissions — emissions
		 are reduced at the point of generation of the		 fuel, owing to the use of green hydrogen. Even		 tailpipe emissions are reduced on account of		 reduced consumption of petrol or diesel.

Box 8

Does hydrogen make sense as cooking fuel?

Hydrogen’s potential as fuel for clean cooking
has been discussed and experimented with. But
given the distributed nature of cooking demand,
electrification is a better pathway for bettering
access to decarbonized cooking. Hydrogen could

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36

Hydrogen Demand Outlook
As per our assessment, hydrogen demand can potentially grow more than fourfold between 2020 and 2050, amounting
to around 29 million tonnes by 2050 (Exhibit 13).
While steel and heavy-duty trucking will be the long-term driver for demand, in the near term, demand will likely be
driven by the more mature markets in industrial feedstock—ammonia and refining. Increasing consumption from these
two sectors can result in a demand of almost 11 million tonnes per year by 2030 from the current demand of around
6 million tonnes. Details of sectoral analysis are presented in Appendix B.

Exhibit 13 Hydrogen demand outlook and potential green hydrogen share at cost parity (without policy intervention)

30.0

100%
90%

HDV
25.0

STEEL

80%

METHANOL
20.0

AMMONIA70%

REFINERYSHARE OF GREEN H2

60%
50%

15.0

40%
10.0

30%

Green Hydrogen ShareTotal Hydrogen Demand (Million Tonnes)

POWER

20%

5.0

10%
0%

0.0
2020

2030

2040

2050

Source: MoS, MoC&F, MoPNG, IEA, TERI, BCG, World Bank, RMI Analysis

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37

The Potential for Green Hydrogen
Cost-competitive green hydrogen opens the possibility
for market development, especially in industries thatare already consumers of grey hydrogen. The share ofgreen hydrogen will depend on the cost of production
compared with alternative hydrogen sources, the shareof hydrogen cost in the end cost of the product, as
well any exogenous demand creation efforts that
may be imposed in the near term. Purely based on
cost-competitiveness, green hydrogen is expected
to dominate the hydrogen market in the long run.
Even in the 2030 timeframe, green hydrogen canplay a significant role for both existing brownfield
consumption and new greenfield investments. Almost
94% of hydrogen demand in 2050 can be met by greenhydrogen, up from 16% in 2030. The cumulative value ofthe green hydrogen market in India could be $8 billion
by 2030 and $340 billion by 2050.
Refining and ammonia are the two sectors ripe fornear-term utilization of green hydrogen given thealready large share of hydrogen they are consuming
and are expected to consume in the near term. But newhydrogen application areas like steel and heavy-duty
vehicles become much more prominent drivers for thegreen hydrogen market in the long run, making them
ideal for small- and large-scale pilot development.
CO2 and Energy Import Savings
This transition has significant impact on thegreenhouse gas emissions of the hard-to-abate sectors.
Cumulatively, between 2020 and 2050, India canabate 3.6 giga tonnes of CO2 emissions compared witha limited hydrogen adoption case. While industrial
feedstock is an easier market, the majority of long-term
decarbonization potential lies in steel followed by heavyduty trucking, since their scale of demand is much higher.
When looked at from an energy security perspective,
domestically produced green hydrogen can translate
to a net energy import savings of $246–$358 billion
cumulatively between 2020 and 2050 ($3–$5 billion
between 2020 and 2030 alone). This is on account of areduction in both natural gas imports as grey hydrogenis replaced with green hydrogen and oil imports as longhaul freight transitions to hydrogen fuel cells trucks.

Exhibit 14 CO2 emissions reductions in 2050 due to green hydrogen uptake

CO2 emissions reductions due to green hydrogen uptake in end use sectors
1800

HDV
STEEL

1600

METHANOLAMMONIA

1400

CO2 emissions (Million Tonnes)

REFINERY
1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
2020 Emissions

2050
Business-as-usual
Emissions

RefineryAmmonia

Methanol

Steel

HDVs

2050
Efficient
Emissions

Source: RMI Analysis

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38

Near-Term Market Development
Encouraging market development for green hydrogen will require further analyses than can inform decision-making.
Exhibit 15 lays out the relationship between the impact of hydrogen on the price of the final products of the end-use
sectors and their green hydrogen market potential by 2030 and 2040. End-use sectors should be assessed to identify
those ready for scaled consumption and those ripe for small- and large-scale pilot development.
Exhibit 15 Assessing opportunity for green hydrogen market creation by 2030
100%

High cost, high impact

High cost, low impact
90%

Ammonia

80%

Methanol (for chemicals)
70%

60%

Hydrogen share of product cost50%

Low cost, high impact

Low cost, low impact

40%

HDV
30%

20%

Steel

10%

Refinery
0%
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Sector share of total green hydrogen demand

Bubble size indicated green hydrogen demand in million tonnes*impact refers to impact of government support on demand creation

2030
2040

0.5
1.5

3

5

Source: RMI Analysis

Targeted Viability Gap Funding (VGF)
A targeted viability gap funding (VGF) mechanism that
can help address industry-specific cost differentials/
green premiums for some of the possible early markets
should be considered. As Exhibit 15 shows, refining
and ammonia could be ideal sectors for a targeted
VGF approach in the initial phase of green hydrogendevelopment. This is due to the current size of hydrogenconsumption and the potential to replace grey withgreen hydrogen.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

The impact of hydrogen on the price of refinery
products is much less than that of ammonia wherehydrogen as a feedstock constitutes almost 80%–90%of the cost of end products like urea. From a government
expenditure perspective, the refinery sector is relatively
more ideal for VGF given that hydrogen contribution to
end product cost is only around 2%–4%.
But ammonia provides credible opportunity as well
given the large share of subsidy the government alreadyprovides for urea imports. India currently imports

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39

almost 25%–30% of its annual urea consumption. 38
Directing part of the existing subsidy outlay towards
VGF for green ammonia production could also makesense from an import substitution and supply security
perspective while making the VGF expenditure forammonia closer to being revenue neutral.
VGF can be directed through multiple economic
instruments such as depreciation benefits, tax benefits,
production-based incentives, and capital subsidies, asGermany is currently promoting for electrolytic hydrogenproduction. Another measure to incentivize industry is
carbon contracts for difference mechanisms or green
subsidies that cover the differential costs between
conventional and green hydrogen-based technologies,
improving the affordability of asset conversion. Lastly, a
production-linked incentive for end products like green
steel and green ammonia could be instituted.
The level of VGF should also be differentiated based onwhether these are targeted towards existing brownfield
assets or newer greenfield assets. Replacing greyhydrogen in older plants is bound to demand higher
VGF due to depreciated assets, while newer plants will
demand lower VGF. For newer applications such as steel,long-haul freight, and a city gas network, assessment
must be conducted to inform VGF potential in the medium
term against existing fuels that green hydrogen will
be replacing.

Hydrogen Mandates
A mandate-driven approach can also aid in market
creation. One way is to blend hydrogen with natural
gas by injecting it into existing natural gas pipeline
networks. This mode of blended hydrogen has recently
been featured in the national hydrogen strategies of
the Netherlands and Australia, in addition to a hostof small-scale pilot projects. 39 Blending can ensure
demand certainty for early investors in green hydrogenproduction and could be crucial for early learnings andscaling efforts. Also, at low blend volume, this strategy
could be very cost-effective for market creation.
Blending mandates can be put into effect for two major
sectors — industries that currently use hydrogen as afeedstock and city gas distribution (CGD). Hydrogencan be blended with natural gas for industries suchas ammonia, refining and methanol, as many ofthese industries tend to along natural gas pipelines.
Additionally, hydrogen can also be blended with existingcity gas network of piped natural gas and compressed
natural gas.
Well designed blending mandates can complement
sector-specific VGF to create a high degree of demandcertainty for scaled deployment of green hydrogen.
Mandates can be driven by requiring all new greenfield
investment to use green hydrogen or by increasing theblending of green hydrogen in existing brownfield units.
Exhibit 16 proposes such a potential mandate.

Exhibit 16 Potential mandates for existing applications
SectorTarget Type

MandateCut-off Date for the sector to go 100% Green

RefineryCorporate level targets

50% by 2030

2035

Fertilizers

Import substitutions

100% by 2030

2040

Source: NITI Aayog

For new applications, an aspirational target-based approach that can inform future mandates should be applied.
Appropriate mandates could be designed in time to build markets in those application areas.

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40

Industrial Cluster Identification and Development
VGF and mandates should also be suppplemented with geographical assessments to identify potential clusters around
existing factories, transmission infrastructure, and renewable hubs. Industrial clusters have been a common strategy
across many of the hydrogen roadmaps being developed, for example in the European Union (see Box 9).
Box 9 Hydrogen Cluster Development in Europe40

The European Union has historically focused on
the establishment of clusters as focal points forindustrial policy. Since 2008, the European Cluster
Observatory has mapped around 3,000 industrial
clusters—regional concentrations of specialised
companies and institutions that cooperate closely.
The EU sees clusters as playing a crucial role inbuilding collaboration, supporting innovation, setting
up transnational partnerships, and advancing thecarbon-neutrality agenda. The European Cluster
Collaboration Platform is an online hub for clusters
to develop partnerships, share knowledge with eachother, and participate in funding calls.

Industrial clusters can help coordinate and concentrate
support to advance green hydrogen adoption. Providing
incentives and support to priority regions while creating
green hydrogen procurement quotas for industries
located in these clusters can solve demand and supply,
as well as alleviate finance constraints to accelerate
deployment. Several strategies (in Korea, Denmark,EU, France, among others) have similarly focused on
supporting full value chains in high-potential regions.
Clusters will be essential in the near-term to guarantee
offtake certainty for early green hydrogen pilot
projects while reducing infrastructure costs. But in the
future, scaled industrial clusters could also become avector for demand aggregation, diversification of thelocal industrial base using hydrogen, and lowering ofproduction costs due to emerging economies of scale.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

Europe's largest hydrogen cluster currently is the
NortH2 cluster in northern Netherlands. It was
launched by a consortium comprised of Groningen
Seaports, Shell Nederland, Gasunie, Equinor, and
RWE. It aims to produce hydrogen in Eemshaven,
Netherlands, using electricity generated by a megascale offshore wind farm. The plan provides for alarge electrolyser and a smart transport network
using Gasunie's existing natural gas infrastructure.
It is expected to transport 1 million metric tonnesof green hydrogen to industries in northern
Netherlands and north-west Europe annually by2040.

As a new pipeline network emerges, or existing gas
pipelines become retrofitted and ready for hydrogentransportation, these early clusters can also emerge as
green hydrogen industrial networks.
Cluster identification should be guided by concentrationof existing and expected end-use facilities and costof hydrogen production given local dynamics aroundland and other resources. CEEW’s analysis presents
a possible early industry cluster in India focusing on
fertilizer and petrochemical in the western coasts andiron and steel in the eastern belt.41 A key conclusion
is that several of the most economically significant
clusters, from the perspective of hydrogen deployment,
are located close to some of India’s best renewable
resources (see Exhibit 17).

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41

Exhibit 17 Location of key industrial facilities

Source: PPAC, NITI Aayog, CEEW

However, even clusters located away from India’s renewable-rich regions, for example, iron and steel clusters in Odisha,still have access to large amounts of a high-quality solar resource.42 Given that shipping electrons is always easier thanshipping molecules, emerging RTC renewables should also be looked at for hydrogen production even where renewable
resources may not be locally available.

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42

Pilot and start-up scaling efforts through dedicatedhydrogen corridors
Given the nascency of the sector, pilots will be critical.
India can support prototype-stage projects to create
domestic supply chains and bring a local context into
innovation:• In the short-term, demonstration projects can be
		
		
		
		
		

set-up either by government public sector undertakingsor by private entities with government encouragement.
The aim should be to address how to produce andscale green hydrogen (see Box 10 for ongoing pilots 		
projects in India).
• Early pilots could be concentrated around existing 				 clusters of feedstock and petrochemical industries 				 highlighted above, followed by the steel sector. A 				 similar approach could be applied to transportation
		 by identifying and targeting major freight corridors
		 in the country in the medium to long term. Technology
		 demonstration pilots for FCEVs could also be conducted		 on government offices or university campuses.
• Government could enable upscaling of lessons from		 the pilots and demonstration projects by having a		 centralized platform for collating and disseminating
		 results, as well as for hosting industry discussions 				and dialogues.

Other Demand Creation Efforts
As sector use of green hydrogen matures from pilots,
the government should identify policy instruments toencourage demand aggregation, including assessmentof any public procurement pathways. This can be crucial
in enabling scaled deployment. Further, introducing
voluntary purchase mechanisms and green certifications
for products such as green steel, green ammonia, andgreen methanol can raise awareness among the end
consumers and enable a consumer-driven market pullfor green hydrogen in the long run.
Upside to Green Hydrogen Demand
All these market creation instruments along with favourable
policies around near-term cost reduction can result in a
substantial increase in green hydrogen demand by 2030.

Box 10 Ongoing Demonstration Pilots in India43

The government is already taking steps to introduce
green hydrogen-based pilots in the country. The
government-led public sector undertaking (PSU),
Indian Oil, is at the forefront of the green hydrogen
revolution. It is planning to setup India’s first greenhydrogen unit for the Mathura refinery, which will
be used to process crude oil. Moreover, it plansto utilize low-cost wind power from Rajasthan(wheeling it to Mathura in Uttar Pradesh) to power
this green hydrogen plant. The organization has

Harnessing Green Hydrogenalso been conducting a pilot using hythane (H-CNG),
a blend of compressed natural gas (CNG) andhydrogen. The pilot involved retrofitting 50 CNG
buses to test the feasibility of the H-CNG-powered
vehicles and their impact on emissions and fueleconomy. Another government-run PSU, NTPC,
has recently set up a tender to establish a first-ofits-kind hydrogen refuelling station to be powered
entirely by renewables in Leh through a stand-alone
1.25 MW solar system.

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43

Exhibit 18 The potential increase of the green hydrogen market under the FPS scenario in 2030

4.0

HDV

3.5

STEEL
METHANOL

3.0

AMMONIA

2.5

REFINERY

Million Tonnes

2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Refinery

Demand at cost parity

Ammonia

Upside from incentives and mandates

Potential Demand

Source: NITI Aayog, RMI Analysis

Under the FPS scenario, green hydrogen demand can be expected to almost double to 3.7 million tonnes from 1.7 million
tonnes in refence scenario (Exhibit 18). This additional demand will be critical in enabling the green hydrogen economy
to mature in the long term creating opportunities for both energy transition as well as industrial growth.

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44

Manufacturing
Opportunities

Manufacturing Opportunities
Beyond supply and demand, India’s robust economy and manufacturing and industrialization ambitions present otheropportunities to partake in the emerging global hydrogen economy. A robust market for green hydrogen translates toa growing demand for production and consumption technologies such as electrolysers and fuel cells and an opportunity
for scaled manufacturing.

India’s Electrolyser Demand
In our reference case, India’s own internal market for electrolysers could be around $31 billion by 2050 representing
a demand of 226 GW (Exhibit 19). By 2030, India can expect a demand of 20 GW.
Exhibit 19 Potential electrolyser market in India

250

35.0

30.0
200

150

20.0

226
100

15.0

Value (Billion US$)

Size (GWe)

25.0

10.0

112

50

5.0

20
0

0.0
2030

2040

2050

Source: RMI Analysis

There is significant near-term increase in the FPS scenario and demand of up to 44 GW can be expected by 2030
(Exhibit 20), provided VGFs, mandates, pilots, and cost reduction incentives can accelerate market development.
Early government efforts can help domestic manufacturers capture a significant share of the pie while potentiallyemerging as a global manufacturer.

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46

Exhibit 20 The potential increase in the electrolyser market under the FPS scenario for 2030

50

HDV
STEEL

40

METHANOLAMMONIAREFINERY

GW

30

20

10

0
Refinery

Demand at cost parity

Ammonia

Upside from incentives and mandates

Potential Demand

Source: NITI Aayog, RMI analysis

Technology Review and Implications
for India
The market for electrolysers is dominated by alkaline
and polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) technologies
with advanced electrolyser technologies like solid oxide
and anion exchange membrane nearing commercial
deployment as well.
The fundamental components of the electrolyser consistof the stack and a large array of balance of plant (BoP)
components. The actual splitting of water into hydrogenand oxygen occurs at the stack level and is supported by
the various systems that fall collectively under the BoP.
Fundamental differences between PEM and alkaline
electrolysers are at the stack level (Box 11).
BoP components are common across both types ofelectrolysers.
Box 11

The Difference between PEM and Alkaline
Electrolysers

The structure for both PEM and Alkaline
electrolysers is similar but there are a few
differences.
A PEM electrolyser relies on reversing the fuelcell process and requires no electrolytes.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

An alkaline electrolyser, on the other hand, is amuch more mature technology (it has been incommercial application since the 1950s) but
requires an electrolyte liquid.
PEM stack components rely on rare earth metals.
The cathode and anode layers of a PEM stack
are created by depositing metals like iridium or
platinum on either side of the membrane. These
are the scarcest and most emissions-intensive
metals available. The bipolar plates of the PEM
stack are built using gold- or platinum-coatedtitanium while the PTL can be built with titanium
or carbon cloth. Alkaline electrolysers rely mostly
on nickel whose supply is more diversified thanrare earth metals.
Compared with alkaline electrolysis, PEM
electrolysis has the advantage of quickly reacting
to the fluctuations typical of renewable power
generation. But PEM electrolysers tend to be
costlier. As electrolyser deployment moves towards
the gigawatt-scale market, the lower cost ofalkaline electrolysers is advantageous when it
comes to scale deployment.

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47

Although the stack contributes close to 50% of thetotal cost of both PEM and alkaline electrolysers, thebalance of plant (BOP) remains the predominant cost
contributor for both electrolysers (Exhibit 21). The
stack, power supply, and water circulation system
make up more than 80% of the cost. Power supply

alone accounts for 20%–30% of the total systemcost of electrolysers today. If seawater is utilized to
produce green hydrogen, the cost of desalination further
increases the water purification costs. This subsystem isthe second-largest cost component within the balanceof plant.

Exhibit 21 Cost breakdown of electrolyser (Adapted from IRENA44)

Alkaline

PEM

Balance of Plant
Stack
components
45%

10%

14%

Cost of Electrolyser

53%

57%

7%

8%

4%

Power Supply
50%

17%
24%

3%

3%

Balanceof Plant
55%

POROUS TRANSPARENT LAYER (PTL)

STRUCTURED LAYERS

SMALL PARTS (SEALING, FRAMES)BIPOLAR PLATES (BPs)

STACK ASSEMBLY AND END PLATESDIAPHRAGM / ELECRTRODE PACKAGE

Deionized
Water
Circulation
22%

Hydrogen
Processing
20%

Cooling 8%

CATALYST COATED MEMBRANE

When it comes to the stack, the cost differs based on thetechnology. The material intensity of PEM, especiallywith its heavy reliance on rare-earth metals and precious
metals like gold and platinum, means that material costs
constitute a much larger share than manufacturing andassembly costs. The easy availability of nickel coupledwith a simpler design makes alkaline electrolysers
50%–60% cheaper than PEM electrolysers. Hencethe stack cost of the alkaline electrolyte is not dominatedby the material costs but the manufacturing costs
amounting to 40% to the total stack cost.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

The Domestic Manufacturing Opportunity
in India
Stack Manufacturing
When it comes to stack manufacturing, India’s initial
positioning is limited by import dependence for metals
like platinum, iridium, and even nickel. Even for new
technologies like solid oxide electrolysers, criticalmaterials are in short supply globally and almost 95%
comes exclusively from China. This import dependency
reduces near-term competitiveness, challenging private
sector interest in developing stack manufacturing
capabilities within the country.

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48

Additionally, there is the question of skilled labour for
stack manufacturing. While it warrants further research,early conversations with electrolyser manufacturers
indicate that skilled labour may not be a problem, andthe country’s scientific and engineering professionals
are able to meet foreseeable demand.45 Regardless,further assessment is required on whether the current
level of technical education and research is providing anadequate labour force as well as institutional knowledge
for the country to partake in the hydrogen economy ingeneral and electrolysers in particular.
But in the longer term, the country can still leverage
its expected growth in domestic green hydrogen
demand to encourage private sector interest. To begin
manufacturing electrolysers in-country, the government
could develop the following strategies:

National Policy on Electronics 2019. Those schemes,along with the recently announced Production Linked
Incentive scheme for solar PV, automobiles, and batteries
are potential models that can encourage electrolyser
manufacturing in the near term.47
While the country can leverage its experience in powerelectronics manufacturing, efforts are required to
identify and establish standardized BoP components
for the global electrolyser market. This calls for room
for collaboration with global manufacturers to establish
standards for BoP components. Further, the supply
ecosystem in the country must be improved to increase
overall domestic value capture.

• Identify and invest in research, development, and		 commercialisation of low-cost electrolyser technologies
		 that require minimum rare earth metals.
• Secure a robust supply chain of metals and mineraland identify electrolyser recycling strategies. These		 strategies could be developed in parallel with the		 domestic advanced chemical battery ecosystem,
		 which may need similar materials.
• Spur local demand for green hydrogen through		 mandates and incentives. This will help create 				 demand certainty for manufacturers to build up		 stack manufacturing capabilities.
Balance of Plant
Given that power supply, water circulation, and hydrogenprocessing units account for 50% of the electrolyser
costs and with potential for further cost reduction,
India still can grow its position in the global electrolyser
market by emulating the progress it is making in theelectronics space. India’s electronics manufacturing has
grown from $29 billion to $70 billion in a span of five
years (2014–2019). This has resulted in India’s electronics
exports growing 39% year-on-year to $8.8 billion in 2019
coupled with a 5% contraction in electronics import.46
This growth has been spurred by multiple Government
schemes that incentivized local manufacturing ofelectronics including the Phased Manufacturing
Program, the Modified Special Incentive Package
Scheme, electronics manufacturing clusters, and theHarnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

49Encouraging Electrolyser
Manufacturing
India’s electrolyser manufacturing ecosystem is ata nascent stage today (see Box 12). Much is left tobe seen in how the government further encourages
both research and development efforts to indigenize
technologies, while encouraging development of startups and OEMs engaged in electrolyser manufacturing.
Building the electrolyser ecosystem requires thegovernment to introduce direct and indirect incentives
to attract domestic and international players to create
electrolyser manufacturing capacity in the country.

Box 12 Existing Electrolyser Manufacturing andResearch Efforts in India48

As per the Ministry of New and Renewable
Energy, India is already home to half a dozen
alkaline electrolyser manufacturers today.
However, the ministry acknowledges the needfor improving electrolyser technology to makethem more efficient and economical. A few
PSUs in India possess the manufacturing
capability for producing BoP components, but
the domestic production of electrochemical
stacks remains muted. The current electrolyser
demand in India for the chlor-alkali industry is
met by international manufacturers. Indigenous
solutions providers have also partnered withinternational electrolyser manufacturers tomeet the domestic demand for hydrogen.
Beyond commercial hydrogen production
activities, there is significant research being done
across various institutions in the country. A few
notable research projects are mentioned below:• Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) has
		 developed an alkali water electrolysis 				 technology for commercialization that can 				 produce 10 Nm3/hr of hydrogen.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen• CSIR-CECRI, Karaikudi is designing 					 electrodes and electrolytes for hydrogen 				 generation using seawater with reduced 				 titania as a catalyst.
• The University of Lucknow is exploring 				 the use of transition metal mixed oxides
		 for alkaline water electrolysis along with		 preparing electrodes using suitable 				 techniques.
• A consortium of institutes including IIT 				 Kanpur, IIT Madras, Dayalbagh Educational 				 Institute, IIT Jodhpur, CECRI Karaikudi, and 				 BARC are aiming to develop a scalable 				 design for a solar hydrogen generation 				 system using multiple technologies.
• ONGC Energy Centre alongside IIT Delhi 				 are utilizing Sulphur-iodine thermochemical
		 hydrogen cycle to generate low-cost clean 				 hydrogen fuel for industrial consumption.

A target-backed government incentive can greatly
accelerate manufacturing. The European Union has set
a target of 6 GW of electrolyser capacity by 2025 and
40 GW by 2030.49 The ambitious targets are backed bya functioning carbon trading mechanism and stricter
emission norms. Given the significant increase predicted
for electrolyser manufacturing in the next decade,Indian manufacturing of electrolysers that support the
Indian green hydrogen industry could signal the adventof a sunrise opportunity.
Initiatives like the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change’s Green Hydrogen Catapult coalition
aim to drive down the cost of green hydrogen to lessthan $2/kg by scaling up manufacturing of electrolysers
from the current estimated capacity of 2 GW to 25 GW
by 2026.50 This growth is expected to materialize rapidly
with the commercial viability of hydrogen expanding
beyond the transport sector to the industry and building
sectors in the coming decade. This growth is attracting
global manufacturers like Orsted, ACWA Power, Envision,
Yara, Iberdrola, and Snam, which have already committed
ambitious manufacturing targets for electrolysers.

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50Encouragement towards electrolyser manufacturing
can ensure supply-chain security for the Indianhydrogen economy and set up India to take advantageof this emerging industry. Production and demandside encouragements for green hydrogen as well as
direct incentives for manufacturing will be necessary.
Further, non fiscal measures like improving theprocess for regulatory clearances coupled withpreferential treatment in public tenders can alsoenable the environment for domestic manufacturing ofelectrolysers.

Research and Development Program
Beyond encouragement for manufacturing a commercial
results-oriented research and development program
should be instituted focusing on electrolysers, fuel cells(see Box 13 for a review of fuel cells), and associatedcomponents looking at efficiency improvement, cost
reduction, stack life extension, and development ofa technology less dependent on metal and material
imports. This program can be a collaborative effort
by key industry players and renowned academic
institutions.
India should invest $1 billion in R&D by 2030 to catalyse
the development of commercial green hydrogentechnologies across the value chain. Instead of blanket
funding of research Institutions, the government can
implement a focused and commercial results-oriented
R&D program with well defined targets and rewards/
incentives for commercial technology development.

NITI Aayog recommends a mission mode R&D drive incollaboration with the industries in the following area:• Early-stage R&D to enable technologies that		 reduces the cost of hydrogen delivery and 				dispensing.
• Manufacturing techniques to reduce the cost		 of automotive fuel cell stacks at high volume.
• R&D that reduces the costs of manufacturing
		 electrolyser components, using advanced 				 techniques such as additive manufacturing.
• Compression of hydrogen to 875 bar using 				 electrochemical cells and metal hydride materials.
• Improve efficiency and reduce the capital cost		 of hydrogen liquefaction, using a vortex tube 				concept.
• Establish the potential for magnetocaloric		 technologies to liquefy hydrogen at twice the		 energy efficiency of conventional liquefaction 				plants.
• Secure critical mineral supply either through		 indigenous development or global collaborations
		 for the supply chain of Nickel, Zirconium,		 Lanthanum, Yttrium, Platinum, Iridium and other		 key raw materials used in electrolysers.
A model R&D program is given below as an example ofsuch a target-based technology development program.

Exhibit 22 Proposed technology innovation and scaling funding
International
Agencies

Type

Initiative

Participants

Public Investment

Private Investment

Early stage R&D

Grand Challenge

Industry-Academia
Joint Teams$400 Million$50 Million

Prototype andValidation

Industrial Test Beds

National Labs orPrivate Entities$100 Million$5 Million$25 Million

Commerical
Scale Up

Hydrogen Venture
CapitalVC Funds$500 Million$300 Million$200 Million

Source: NITI Aayog

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51

Box 13 A Review of Fuel Cells51

Fuel cells are in a sense the opposite of electrolysers.
Instead of splitting water into hydrogen and oxygenusing electricity, it houses an electrochemical reactor
that uses energy source natural gas or hydrogen as amain source to produce electricity. They consist of anelectrolyte and two electrodes. Hydrogen molecules
react with the anode to form positive hydrogenions and electrons. The ions travel through theelectrolyte to react with air (oxygen) at the cathode,while the electrons pass through a connected circuit
generating electricity. Finally, hydrogen ions andelectrons combine with oxygen at the cathode to
produce water.
Fuel cell technologies are similarly differentiatedbased on the stack technology. PEM is the most usedfuel cell and is suited for transport applications due
to its lower operating temperature requirements andquick start. The other technology options are moresuited for distributed power generation, except foralkaline fuel cells, which are mainly used in military
applications.

bring the manufacturing costs down dramatically—a
45% reduction in fuel cell system costs is plausible
with scaling from 10,000 systems to 200,000
systems. India’s scale in terms of manufacturing
capability and demand and low-cost labour can help
reach economies of scale much faster. Investment
in larger equipment, advancement in manufacturing
operations, better utilization of machinery, andaggregated procurement are the biggest factors to
reduce manufacturing costs related to fuel cells.
India’s Domestic Manufacturing Opportunity
RMI’s analysis indicates that fuel cell demandthrough heavy-duty trucking alone presents a$4 billion market opportunity by 2050 in India,
amounting to 10%–18% of global fuel cell demandby 2050. Similar to electrolysers, this could create
opportunities for domestic manufacturing in India.
Market size and manufacturing opportunities forfuel cells can be even greater if stationary fuel cellsystems also play a role in the future.

Cost Implication
Manufacturing costs dominate the total cost of PEM
fuel cells, whereas the share of materials cost ismuch lower. An increased scale in production canHarnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

52

ExportOpportunities

Export Opportunities
India’s domestic demand expectation will mean that it will not be a pure export-driven hydrogen producer like theMiddle East or Australia. But driven by the low cost of renewables in the country, India can still emerge as a one of
the most competitive sources for green hydrogen in the world (Exhibit 23). This will impact not just the prospects forhydrogen exports but also the competitiveness of low-carbon products with embedded hydrogen such as green steel
and green ammonia.
Exhibit 23 Comparison of levelized cost of green hydrogen in selected countries

2050

2030
3.0

LCOH ($/kg)

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0

India (best case)

Scandinavia

SwedenChile

Australia

BrazilU.A.E.

U.S.

Saudi Arabia

Spain

China

Italy

CanadaTurkeyGermany

FranceMalaysia

ThailandU.K.

RussiaIndonesia

Philippines

Japan

South Korea

0

Mexico0.5

Source: BNEF,52 RMI Analysis

Hydrogen Export Opportunities
Disparity in sources and consumption of green hydrogen is bound to create markets for green hydrogen as a tradeableenergy commodity in the long term, albeit with challenges. We are already seeing early momentum as traditionalenergy importers like Japan and South Korea, willing to pay premium prices, are increasingly pursuing the possibilityof importing hydrogen through ocean shipping (e.g., with Australia, see Box 14) either through LH2, LOCHs, and NH3.
European countries are also welcoming the prospects for both intra-regional and international hydrogen trade. Traditionalenergy exporting regions like Australia and the Middle East are increasingly positioning themselves for hydrogen exports.
Box 14The Japan-Australia Hydrogen Energy Supply Chain (HESC) Project53

Japan and Australia are currently working on a Hydrogen Energy Supply Chain (HESC) Project, the world’s
first endeavor to ship hydrogen over the ocean. It aims to safely produce and transport clean liquid hydrogenfrom Australia’s Latrobe Valley in Victoria to Kobe in Japan. HESC hopes to demonstrate the viability of an
end-to-end hydrogen supply chain. The HESC Project is being developed in two phases, beginning with apilot, and moving on to commercialization. In the commercialization phase, coal from the Latrobe Valley
will produce blue hydrogen due to the addition of CCS. Australia aims to kickstart a hydrogen export industry
with this project. The pilot phase is to be completed in 2021 with commercial operation targeted for the2030s depending on the results of the pilot.

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54

Competitiveness of Indian Green Hydrogen Exports
Green hydrogen from India in 2050 could be remarkably competitive with hydrogen from countries like Australia
and the United States, which are already in conversation for ocean shipping of hydrogen. Even by 2030, Indian greenhydrogen could be competitive at the margin for select geographies.
Exhibit 24

Potential delivered cost of Indian green hydrogen

5.0Best case delivered cost of green hydrogen

4.5
4.0

US$/kg

3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Pipeline - Chennai - Singapore

Pipeline - Mumbai - Oman

Shipping - LH2 - Chennai - Tokyo

Shipping - LH2 - Chennai - Korea

PRODUCTION COST (2030)

AUSTRALIA TO JAPAN (LH2) - 2050

US GULF TO KOREA (LH2) - 2030

PRODUCTION COST (2050)

FUTURE BEST CASE TRANSPORT COST

US GULF TO KOREA (LH2) - 2050

AUSTRALIA TO JAPAN - LH3 - 2030

FUTURE BEST CASE DELIVERED COST

AUSTRALIA TO SINGAPORE - PIPELINE - 2030
US GULF TO KOREA (LH2) - 2050

Source: BNEF,54 TERI, RMI Analysis

The prospect for pipeline trade to major ports andenergy trading hubs in the region like Singapore exists if
end-use sectors such as shipping and the airline industry(in addition to refining) increase their use of hydrogen.
Challenges to Hydrogen Export
However, this brief analysis doesn’t highlight the various
techno-commercial challenges to international hydrogen
trade and India’s preparedness for it.
While marine hydrogen trade is theoretically promising,many challenges persist. Unlike petroleum or natural
gas where resources are constrained by geography,
green hydrogen could be produced onshore, provided
resources (land, renewable electricity, etc.) are
adequately available. Export-dependent countries, willingto pay a price premium, can also theoretically utilize
imported liquified natural gas (LNG) to produce hydrogen
onshore through steam methane reformation (SMR).

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

With LOHCs and hydrides like ammonia, the additionalenergy cost of conversion makes cost considerations
necessary.
Pipelines, on the other hand, remain underdeveloped,
even nationally. As of 2016, there were only
approximately 2,800 miles of dedicated hydrogenpipeline installed globally, with 1,600 miles of those in
the United States.55 This contrasts with over 130,000
miles of onshore oil pipelines and 300,000 miles ofonshore natural gas pipelines in the United States alone.
Hydrogen blending is being proposed and utilized innational natural networks but has not been used ininternational trade yet. Due to their high capital cost andlong lifetime, hydrogen pipelines are typically reservedfor high volume flows. Lastly, the issue of hydrogen
embrittlement of steel can result in safety concerns andpotential cost considerations.

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55

This challenge of infrastructure preparedness isboth global and local. India’s lack of experience as ahydrocarbon exporter means there is a comparatively
steeper learning curve before it can effectively competewith regions like Australia and the Middle East, which arealso equally blessed with the prospect of low-cost greenhydrogen. In the near-term this will involve assessment of
infrastructure readiness for hydrogen exports. Brownfield
assets including pipelines and LNG import terminals cantheoretically be repurposed for exports but given all
the challenges related to hydrogen transportation andstorage, a thorough assessment is warranted.
Near-term infrastructure development should also
be cognizant of such long-term prospects. In thelonger term, becoming an energy exporter will require
the country to invest in improving the businessenvironment, including aspects such as transparent
access to land, labour, and capital; a legal mechanism tohonour contracts; and a stable political environment.

Green Hydrogen-Embedded
Low-Carbon Products
Exporting hydrogen itself may have techno-commercial
challenges. But markets for products that rely on lowcarbon hydrogen as inputs (such as green steel andgreen ammonia) can also be competitive opportunities
to leverage the green hydrogen potential of India.
Although it is early to ascertain how these markets
might evolve, this section helps illustrate the potential ofIndia’s low-carbon ammonia and steel in global markets.

A decarbonization agenda is shaping global demand.
Japan is expanding the use of ammonia as co-firing fuelfor its coal plants and targets annual consumption of 3
million tonnes by 2030 and 30 million tonnes by 2050.58
Several companies are developing innovative engines
and turbines that can use ammonia as a feedstock.59
Ammonia projects for marine fuel are also emerging.
India’s Potential
Given the cost sensitivity of ammonia to the price ofhydrogen, as discussed in Chapter 2, evolution of the
global green ammonia market will also rest heavily on theprices at which green hydrogen can be delivered. In our
analysis, India’s early renewable LCOE advantage leads
to low-cost hydrogen and offers advantages in related
electrified processes. Today, ammonia produced by thispathway would come at potentially a significant premium
over ammonia produced by conventional pathways.
However, through innovation and continued cost decline,
the pathway of production could become significantly
cheaper. This cost advantage could also potentially
improve India’s competitiveness for green hydrogen
trade, given ammonia’s role as an energy carrier.
Since infrastructure for ammonia production alreadyexists for the fertilizer industry, there are significant
synergies India should explore for expansion to cater toan emerging global demand for green ammonia.

Green Ammonia
Given the existing demand of hydrogen for ammonia
production, ammonia offers a more immediate path tomarket than many other use cases. Beyond traditionaluse cases like fertilizer and industrial feedstock,ammonia is now being looked at for power generation,
marine fuel, and most importantly, as potentially themost competitive energy carrier for the sea bornehydrogen trade.56 Unlike other “green” commodities,
the supply chain and logistics for ammonia is highly
developed and includes wide networks of ports, storage
facilities, and established shipping routes.57 And given its
centrality in many sectors there are additional avenues
for moving up the value chain, boding well for the futureof a global trade in green ammonia.

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56

Exhibit 25

Cost comparison of green ammonia

120%

Comparison of potential green ammonia production cost(against benchmark ammonia prices of USD 500/tonne)

100%

AUSTRALIA
CHINA
INDIA

80%

Discount / Premiun

60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%

2020

2030

2050

Source: RMI Analysis

Creating a Global Market for Green Ammonia
Building a global market for green ammonia will requiresignificant expansion of end use from more costsensitive fertilizer and industry to energy applications,which potentially could absorb slightly higher cost in
the right geographies. Identifying and encouraging
applications that can pay a higher green premium need
to be supported.
Decarbonization goals have and will continue to dictate thelonger-term direction of green ammonia. Therefore, earlyleadership from prominent nations and clear alignment
in global policy direction is needed to provide the rightsignal for the private sector to invest in market building.
To sustain and grow the market, significant innovation andlowering of capital and energy cost will be required. This
could involve instituting research and development andincentive mechanisms at a multilateral level. Mechanism
like carbon prices can also provide much needed levellingof the economic gap for many of the end uses.

Green SteelDRI technology is already in use through natural gas,
and the first commercial pilots for hydrogen DRI are
already running. Major steel producers have announced
their foray into green steel, with seven out of the ten
biggest steel producing countries initiating green steel
projects.60 Most of the investments are concentrated inEurope with Sweden leading the way.61 Swedish green
steel start-up H2GS AB recently raised $105 million
targeting an annual production of 5 million tonnes by2030.62 India’s own Tata Steel has announced plans forgreen steel in its UK plants.63
Decarbonization seems to be the biggest driver for thisshift and most projects are in countries with aggressive
CO2 reduction targets. But the steel mills of progressive
companies that currently invest in and commit to
low-carbon production only represent 8% of global
steel production. A 100-fold step-change in the paceof transition is needed for the steel industry to adhere
to a 1.5° C pathway.64 Given project lead-time and thelong lives of steel mills, there is a need for immediacy ininitiating this transition.

There is a tacit recognition of steel being an increasingly
important and viable pathway for hydrogen use.

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57

India’s Potential
This recognition bodes well for the future of the global green steel market. The only question is when it will start
making economic sense for scaling this transition. Hydrogen-based steel is expected to be cost-competitive between
2030 and 2040 in Europe.65 But this scenario can be accelerated if an adequate carbon price is introduced or if theprice of hydrogen drops substantially.
Exhibit 26

Cost comparison of green steel

Comparison of potential green steel production cost(against benchmark hot-rolled steel prices of USD 500/tonne)

AUSTRALIA
CHINA
INDIA

40%
30%

Discount / Premiun

20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%

2020

2030

2050

Source: RMI Analysis

Steel is a traditionally tight margin market. Thus prices reflect a very tight capacity to absorb variable costs. In ourassessment, the same advantage of low hydrogen cost that allows India a potential advantage in manufacturing
ammonia creates a pathway for steel. This is further strengthened when considering the significant volume ofelectric arc furnaces in use in India today (around 56% of current fleet)66 that could be used in DRI crude production.
Additionally, while not modelled, the potential to utilize slack capacity in these EAFs would further reduce the cost points.
Creating a Global Market for Green SteelGiven the importance of steel to industrialisation, and the economics of multiple sectors, building a global green
steel market will require coordinated policies, pooling of investment and research and development resources,
harmonisation of product and process standards, and significant transition financing. RMI lists the following set ofinterventions that could encourage this transition:

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58

Exhibit 27

Interventions towards a global green steel market

Market Information• A differentiated low-carbon steel product to enable the supply-demand dynamic to create price premium for a 		higher-performing supplier• Asset portfolio differentiation to reduce risk exposure to medium-to-long-term market development toward a 		low-carbon future• New vehicles to scale intellectual property (IP) beyond single entitie
Policy Intervention• Industry self-regulation and decarbonization commitments of critical scale• Carbon taxes or equivalent mechanisms to reduce the cost advantage of high-carbon manufacturing• Import tariffs based on carbon content to protect the local market from carbon leakage (i.e., competition from 		
high-carbon import)• Carbon performance requirements in government and/or private procurement
Finance Intervention• Government or voluntary support to lock in value premium for low-carbon steel production to reduce
uncertainty for investors in emerging technology• Late stage R&D support for commercialization of technologies currently in pilot stage• Investor pressure on steel companies to disclose and improve their carbon performance• Securitization programs or other financial tools to manage the potential write-down value of high-carbon
production assets
Source: RMI67

Key Takeaway
This preliminary analysis effort is not sufficient
to provide granular justification of specific costpoints, but the trend indicates the potential areas ofadvantage that India could begin to leverage today.
The continued drive towards low-cost renewables
further supports the expected declines in electrolyser
capital expenditures and improvements in efficiency
that will drive to significantly more competitive pricing
for export hydrogen and commodities. Although India
would appear to have some advantage, these will besignificantly competitive markets internationally as
similar cost declines materialize in other countries.
Flexibility and nimbleness will be required to realizable
this advantage in the long term.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

Ultimately, this export competitiveness circles backto market creation to enable scaled deployment ofgreen hydrogen so that price decline expectations
can be met. In the medium term, export projects canpotentially serve as a market creation mechanism forgreen hydrogen production. Green ammonia can be an
ideal product since India should already be targetingammonia for fertilizer production. In due course, India
can also pre-empt the green steel market throughexport-oriented pilot projects and manufacturing
schemes. Government-to government cooperationmust be leveraged to develop collective frameworks
and labelling and standards around green hydrogenand embedded products.

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59Box 15

Financing the Hydrogen Transition68

Enabling India’s hydrogen transition will require an increased access to and flow of finance on part of several
stakeholders. Different stakeholders have different roles across technology stages due to differing risk
appetites and investment horizons. Considering these roles help define the most effective ways for eachstakeholder to finance green hydrogen. Mobilising finance will be particularly important to ready the market
for achieving large-scale deployment.
Public Finance
Government expenditure and publicly owned bodies are crucial to every stage of technology innovation due
to longer-term investment outlooks and greater tolerance for uncertainty. Governments can provide grants
and loans to start-ups and projects, support entrepreneurs through incubators and investor networks, andput in place regulations that manage first-mover risks. They are crucial source for concessional finance tobridge markets and support scale-up. Government can also use public procurement and purchase incentives
to create demand in niche markets and “crowd in” private investment.
Globally, governments are moving towards supporting commercialisation and demonstration of entire value
chains, often through public-private partnerships. Nations are increasingly using regions, cities, or industrial
clusters as focal points of financing. In addition to direct support and programs, public financial institutions
are being engaged to support the transition.
Multilateral Finance
Multilateral development banks (MDBs) and climate finance institutions can help catalyse technologicaladoption across stages in partnership with public and private actors. MDBs can provide venture capital andinvestor networks to entrepreneurs and projects, and support governments in developing enabling policies/
regulations. They can also explore support to demonstrations and pilots with industry actors. MBDs are also
crucial for concessional finance and can capitalise guarantees and risk-sharing facilities to support scale up.
They can also provide directed lending to local financial institutions. Although interest in hydrogen has been
growing, substantial funds have not yet been mobilized.
Private Finance and Industry
Private investment and business input is essential to developing a robust market, spreading market
awareness, and creating space for evidence-based policymaking. Corporate venture capital can incubate
applications of green hydrogen and provide opportunities for scale-up. Industries can finance in-house pilots
and first movers, possibly via public-private partnerships. Further, the larger financial industry can adjust
investment criteria and build capacity for maturity, engaging in risk-sharing and blended finance models.
They can also develop project finance models for green hydrogen. Private equity is slowly being mobilised,signified by the launch of HydrogenOne Capital— the world’s first hydrogen-dedicated investment fund,worth $315 million. Project finance, although a viable financial mechanism for funding hydrogen projects, isstill at early stages of exploration.
Policy and regulatory risks are seen to constrain private investment in hydrogen projects, especially innascent markets such as India. Hydrogen has limited commercial viability at this stage due to higher upfront
costs, longer payback periods, and unproven returns. But this creates an opportunity for a national program
to prime India through the design of de-risking schemes such as guarantees, first-loss tranches, andconcessional insurance while simultaneously building the capacity of public and private financial institutions.

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60

Steps to make India
a global hub ofgreen hydrogenSteps to make India a global hub of green hydrogen
The analyses and discussions presented in this report are only meant to highlight the opportunities that greenhydrogen presents for India for decarbonization, manufacturing, and exports. Real action is required for the country
to truly benefit from these opportunities.
This chapter distills the insights into ten actionable recommendations that can lead to a National Action Plan on
Green Hydrogen to guide and enhance the National Hydrogen Mission.69
1. A detailed roadmap focused on all aspects of ‘Green Hydrogen’
The recent announcement of the National Hydrogen Mission signals the right intent but it needs to be complemented
with further policy direction in the form of a national roadmap/strategy. The emphasis of this roadmap should be toelaborate on the government’s vision for green hydrogen in multiple sectors with timelines and investment aspirations
given the long-term cost advantage and multiple benefits that we have established in this report. This will improve
investors’ confidence and will converge the entire value chain and the various government agencies towards asingular vision.
Exhibit 28

Potential direction of a National Green Hydrogen Roadmap

2020-252025-30

2030-40

2040-50

Enabling Green Ammonia for exports

NH3

RefineryAmmonia for fertilizer

NH3

City Gas Distribution (CDG) blending

Green Steel for exports

PilotsDomestic Green SteelHeavy Duty Trucking

Pilots

PilotsLimited scale-up• Seasonal storage andother energy applications.
• Ships and airplanes.

Source: NITI Aayog

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62

2. Establish an aspirational cost-reduction target
and initiate supply-side intervention for achieving
cost reduction of green hydrogen
Enabling this roadmap with require both demand andsupply side interventions. In tandem with cost reduction
targets in the roadmap, the government should also
focus on enabling a cost reduction pathway for greenhydrogen to be produced in the country. The current
Green Hydrogen policy lays out adequate measures
focusing on inter-state transmission (ISTS) charges
waiver and open access for green hydrogen and green
ammonia production. It can be further improved by:

Exhibit 29• Reduction or exemption of tax and duties like the
GST and custom duties;• Dollar-based tariffs for green hydrogen like thestandard practice in the oil and gas sector; andOther measures such as revenue recycling of any
carbon tax, low emission PPAs, and avenues for
firming electricity supply including discounted gridelectricity to complement VRE generation.
To further motivate the private sector, the government
should establish an aspirational price decline target.
Such a target is proposed below:

Proposed aspirational hydrogen price targets

Year

2025

2030

2050

Green H2 Price$1.50/kg$1/kg< $1/kg

Source: NITI Aayog

3. Initiate mandates and incentives towards avisionary target of 160 GW of green hydrogenproduction capacity including 100 GW of exports
In the demand sector, the government should set a
visionary target complemented by strict mandates
and adequate VGFs on more immediately addressable
end-use demand.

assessments to identify potential clusters around
existing factories, transmission infrastructure, andrenewable hubs. Such cluster identification can also
include the prospect of exports.
A plan should also be set to propose clear mandates
around hydrogen blending in existing and potentiallyfuture consumption sectors. This will provide demandcertainty for early green hydrogen projects andencourage early market development. Potential
mandates being proposed by NITI Aayog are shown in
Exhibit 30.

End-use sectors should be further assessed to identify
those sectors ready for scaled consumption and thoseripe for small- and large-scale pilot development.
They should also be supplemented with geographical

Exhibit 30

Potential mandates for existing applications

SectorTarget Type

MandateCut-off Date for the Sector to go 100% Green

RefineryCorporate level targets

50% by 2030

2035

Fertilizers

Import substitutions

100% by 2030

2040

Source: NITI Aayog

For new applications, where the viability of using green hydrogen is still nascent, necessary incentives should bedesigned. One example is a PLI scheme for green steel targeting export markets. NITI Aayog is proposing the several
visionary targets for new applications (Exhibit 31).

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63

Exhibit 31

Aspirational targets for new applications

Year
SectorType

Targets

Steel

Old plants

Fleet level carbon intensity by 2035 should be less than 2 tonnes of
CO2 per tonne of steel

New capacity

At least 20 million tonnes of green hydrogen- based green steel to bemade in India primarily for exports

City Gas Distribution (CDG)

Pilot and subsequent scale-up

10% blending by 2025 and 20% by 2030

Green Ammonia

Exports

25 million tonnes of exports to countries such as Japan, Korea, andthe European Union

Heavy-Duty Vehicles (HDVs)

Pilots on specific routes

1,000 trucks, 50 boats, and 10 aircrafts to be piloted by 2030. Threehydrogen corridors to be developed across the country based onstate grand challenge.

Power

Allow participation in RTC
tenders

Where economics makes sense, allow hydrogen to compete with otherstorage technologies in Round the Clock tenders by SECI.

Source: NITI Aayog

Box 16

Assessing Viability Gap Funding for Exports

India has the potential to become a major exporter of green hydrogen-based products, given a strong baseof manufacturing excellence and ample availability of cheap renewable sources. However, the current highcost of green hydrogen compared with grey hydrogen will act as a major roadblock for India to transition to a
global force in green hydrogen production and consumption. One policy instrument that can enable cost parityof green hydrogen with grey is VGF, where a developer setting up a green hydrogen plant would be provided
marginal funding so that the green hydrogen price would become equivalent to grey hydrogen prices.
Since exports provide a strong potential for scaling green hydrogen uptake and fall within the priorities ofGovernment of India, an analysis has been developed to assess the amount of VGF required to match India’s
green hydrogen export aspirations. This assessment is an illustration and similar methodology can be followed
to assess VGF for other end uses.
Three scenarios for green hydrogen prices are assumed (representing the lower, middle and higher endof green hydrogen prices previously shown in Exhibit 11 of this report). In each scenario, the price of greenhydrogen in a given year is compared against a target grey hydrogen price in that year. Then, the required
electrolyser price to reduce the green hydrogen price to the target price is assessed. The difference in the
upfront electrolyser prices multiplied with the electrolyser capacity in that year gives the yearly VGF
required. This process is repeated for each consecutive year. The electrolyser capacity for this analysis isbased on the target of 95GW by 2030. Moreover, the starting year for VGF is 2024, with ending year
differing in each scenario.

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64

Exhibit 32

VGF and electrolyser capacity for exports

650

VIABILITY GAP FUNDING (VGF)$5 billion

CUMILATIVE ELECTROLYZER CAPACITY

40

VGF ($ billion)

430$3 billion
3

20
2$1.4 billion

Electrolyzer capacity (GW)

5

10

1

0

0

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Exhibit 32 shows the VGF required for exports along with associated electrolyser capacity in the three
scenarios. Overall, a range of $1.4 billion - $5 billion will be required in VGF for India to match its aspirational
electrolyser targets for exports. It’s also interesting to look at why and how VGF is different for each scenario.
In scenario 1, where price declines for green hydrogen are happening at the fastest rate, the VGF will only berequired from 2024 to 2026. This is mainly because from 2027, green hydrogen prices will be less than thetarget grey hydrogen price, negating the need for VGF. Moreover, the electrolyser scale till 2026 is around
10 GW of cumulative capacity. In scenario 2, the VGF requirement runs for four years, from 2024 to 2027.
In this scenario, the cumulative VGF requirement is $ 3 billion, which is twice the requirement in scenario 1.
This is because of two reasons – 1) the VGF is for four years instead of three years, because the price parity
is reached from 2028, instead of 2027 as in the first scenario and 2) cumulative GW capacity is also higher
because of added capacity in the year 2027. Similarly, VGF is the highest in scenario three because priceparity of green hydrogen happens in 2029, thereby necessitating the requirement of $5 billion across five
years (2024 – 2028).

Source: RMI Analysis

Exhibit 33

Resulting cumulative electrolysis capacity targets
MarketTargets for cumulative electrolysis capacity by 2030

Addressable demand (RMI)

20 GW

Green Hydrogen

Initiatives-based Demand

45 GW

Demand Targets

Exports aspiration

95 GW

Year

Total

160 GW electrolysis

Source: NITI Aayog

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65

Visionary 2030 electrolysis target for green hydrogen production

180

PRODUCT EXPORT INCENTIVES

160

41

160

PILOTS

12

MANDATES / VIABILITY GAP FUNDING (VGF)

140

GW of Electrolyzer Capacity

14

GREEN HYDROGEN EXPORTS

ADDRESSABLE DEMAND (RMI)

120

12.3

0.2

0.5

10

5

69

100

8

80

6

60
4

15
40

Million tonnes of H2

Exhibit 34

31
2

20
0

0
RefineryAmmonia

Steel

Methanol

HDVs

CGD

Visionary
Exports(other H2 carriers) Demand Target

Source: NITI Aayog

4. Set-up visionary electrolyser manufacturing
capacity target of 25 GW for 2030 coupled withsupportive manufacturing and R&D investments
Given how important electrolyser cost is to the
cost-reduction pathway for green hydrogen and thesignificant manufacturing opportunity it represents,
the roadmap should identify a timeline and scale ofmaunfacturing support for electrolyser. India should
envisage a production capacity accounting not only for
Indian demand, but also for burgeoning global demand.
Radically improving the speed of regulatory clearances
coupled with preferential treatment in public tenders will
help catalyse local manufacturing.
The report predicts a significant increase in electrolyser
manufacturing in India in the next decade. India
should look at a minimum target of 25 GW by 2030.
The manufacturing of electrolysers to support the
Indian green hydrogen industry could signal theadvent of a multibillion-dollar sunrise opportunity withsignificant export potential. In addition to electrolysers,
manufacturing of necessary value chain components
such as pipes, cylinder storage, compressors, heatexchangers, nozzles, hoses etc should be encouraged
using adequate local value creation initiatives.
India should invest $1 billion in R&D by 2030 to catalyse
the development of commercial green hydrogen
Harnessing Green Hydrogentechnologies across the value chain. Industry andacademia should be ecouraged to particiapte together
as teams in well capaitalised grand challenges withspecific aspirational targets. R&D in alternative cleanhydrogen production processes like bio-hydrogentechnologies should also be encouraged.
5. Initiate green hydrogen standards and a labelling
programme
While the definition of Green Hydrogen has been
established in the policy, it is important to undertake
immediate actions on standard development andharmonisation:• Though standards are already available for greyhydrogen, they are designed for limited industrialuse. It is important to construct new hydrogenstandards keeping in mind the widespread use ofhydrogen across sectors.
• Standards for new products such as electrolysers,
fuel cells, and other new products are required.
• A digital (AI/ML equipped) labelling and tracing
mechanism certification of origin should also be
initiated for ascertaining the green credentials of
all supply route of hydrogen including electrolytic,
fossil fuel based and bio based hydrogen.
• Government-to-government mechanisms must be
utilized towards initiating global regulations andstandard harmonization.
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66• Public entities such as BIS (Bureau of IndianStandards) and PESO (The Petroleum andExplosives Safety Organization) are expected totake a leading role in this process.
6. Promotion of exports of green hydrogen-embedded products and green hydrogen through aninternational alliance
Exports of green hydrogen-embedded products in thenear term and of green hydrogen itself in the medium
to long term could also serve as important levers formarket creation and participation in the emerging
global green hydrogen market. The government
must explore forming government-to-government
partnerships with target geographies such as Japan,
Korea, Germany etc and integration of hydrogen into
existing energy and industrial partnerships globally.
This should include developing collective frameworks
and labelling and standards around green hydrogen andhydrogen-embedded products like green steel and green
ammonia. The government should also explore nearterm incentives around green ammonia and green steel
production through public incentives to bridge the initial
viability gap.
Exhibit 35 Policy driven demand targets of major importfocused countries
Region

2030

2050

Japan

3 MMTPA

20 MMTPASouth Korea

3.9 MMTPA

27 MMTPA

Germany

2.7 - 3.3 MMTPA

7. Investment facilitation
The government has a large role in providing financial
certainty to early adopters of energy transition
technologies. In the near term a credit worthy offtakerlike SECI can be nominated to aggregate demand in
the initial period. In the long run, a smooth and marketoriented green hydrogen industry should be developed.
Efforts should be made to ensure availability of longtenor and low-interest finance for viable green hydrogenprojects. Developing a functioning carbon market canHarnessing Green Hydrogenalso accelerate decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors,
thereby making green hydrogen projects financiallymore viable in the process. This will help create a morepredictable cash-flow for early adopters without loss
to the Indian exchequer, while making them morecompetitive with existing carbon-intensive processes.
It is estimated that more than $250 billion (INR 18 lakhcrore) investment is required just to meet the 160 GW
electrolysers target (for financing the electrolysers andassociated renewable capacity).70 It is critical for India totake a leading role in accessing low-cost climate financethrough either multilateral institutions or by capitalisingon bilateral agreements with developed nations toaccess part of the $100 billion/year commitments madeduring COP16.
8. Encourage state-level action and policy making
related to Green Hydrogen
To ensure a widespread adoption of new technologies,
national and state-level policy decision-making needto go hand in hand. It is evident from policy efforts
on electric vehicle (EV) adoption in India, where
various states have launched their own policies tocomplement national-level policies, that dedicatedaction is important at the state-level. Similarly, all statesshould be encouraged to launch their own state-levelgreen hydrogen policies. Since each state is unique,the policies can be targeted based on their needs andstrengths, where some states could focus on low-costgreen hydrogen production either through electrolytic
or bio-based routes, while others could focus on demandclusters, etc.
9. Encourage capacity building and skill
development
Building a robust hydrogen economy is going to be new
to India. This will necessitate appropriate and rapid
skills development across the ecosystem including
government, industry, and academia. While technology
knowhow is essential, focus must go beyond to include
business models, policies, and geopolitics. A scalable
skills programme will have to be designed, developed,
and deployed rapidly.

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6710. Construct an inter-ministerial governance structure
Considering the multi-sectoral impact of the hydrogen economy, governance of the transition efforts will be critical.
An interdisciplinary Project Management Unit (PMU) with globally trained experts must be created which can dedicate
fulltime resources to effectively implement the mission. The PMU must be nimble enough to adapt to global trends inthis fast-evolving sector. At the policy level, an inter-ministerial mechanism should be instituted to coordinate across thevarious line ministries’ and departmental efforts required to achieve the target of the mission. Each co-chair of the interministerial mechanism would have a specific target to achieve.

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68Conclusion

Conclusion
Hydrogen can play a critical role in India’s energy
transition by enhancing its industrial competitiveness in
an increasingly decarbonizing world, boosting economic
development, reducing CO2 emissions, and improving
public health and quality of life. Major countries aroundthe world are placing big bets and investing in hydrogenbased technologies, and India can play a leadership role at
the global level in moving forward the hydrogen economy.

players, and financial institutions to enable a hydrogen
economy in India. Significant R&D funding geared
towards hydrogen production and applications can help
in technology improvements and reduce costs. A publicprivate partnership using these resources to conduct
high quality research, develop pilot projects, test
feasibility, and finally scale deployment can be a firstkey step towards widespread adoption of hydrogen.

The biggest value proposition of hydrogen is indecarbonizing the hard-to-abate sectors. Historically,
these sectors have been difficult to address because of alack of technically and economically feasible technologies.
Hydrogen can address many of these challenges and play
a complementary role to other efficiency measures toeffectively decarbonize these sectors.

Policy push is needed both on the demand and supply
side. Demand incentives to ease the barriers of high costcan enable initial market creation and can be phased out
as the market matures. Simultaneously, there must be apush on the supply side, combined with infrastructure,
to provide green hydrogen at scale. This can be achieved
with a combination of production-linked incentives forelectrolysers and fuel cells, and requirements for theindustry and private players to deploy these technologies.

Decreasing costs and an increase in renewable electricity,
along with high-scale manufacturing and technology
improvements in electrolysers will bring the cost ofgreen hydrogen down in the near future, making it costcompetitive with existing technologies and fuel options.
With increased pressure on industries such as steel,refining, and ammonia to reduce their carbon footprintand de-risk their investment, hydrogen’s importance andscale are bound to increase.
Apart from fulfilling national goals around reducing
emissions and enhancing domestic manufacturing,hydrogen paves a way for India to become a global
powerhouse of zero-carbon embedded export products.
Products such as green steel and green ammonia present
an early mover opportunity for India, given India’s
capability and resources to produce them at a cheaperrate than peer nations such as China and Australia.
Significant challenges need to be addressed to enable thishydrogen transition. Costs of production are currently
higher, making all green hydrogen-based products more
expensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. Transportingand storing hydrogen are costly, and significant build-out
of infrastructure is required to bring down the costs ofdelivered hydrogen. Regulations and standards are still
not clear, and financing remains a big challenge.
Key actions are required by policymakers, industry

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

While initial deployment can happen in certain end usesthat use hydrogen as a feedstock such as ammonia,
methanol, or refining, it’s important to expand theapplications into other sectors to achieve bigger scales.
Standards and regulations around hydrogen production
and use should be revisited, and implementation of
new regulations and standards should be prioritized toenable a quick transition to a hydrogen economy.
Financing hydrogen production and applications is
also a key component of this transition. Risk mitigation
measures for industry players is crucial. This can be done
by providing concessional funding, educating and building
capacity for industry and public and private institutions
to enhance multi-stakeholder collaboration, and sharedlearning on technology readiness and demonstration
projects. These measures along with special funding fordomestic pilot projects can increase industry and lender’sconfidence and help ease this transition.
India has a unique opportunity to become a global
leader in the hydrogen energy ecosystem. With proper
policy support, industry action, market generation andacceptance, and increased investor interest, India canposition itself as a low-cost, zero-carbon manufacturinghub, at the same time fulfilling its goal of economic
development, job creation, and improved public health.

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70Appendices
Appendix A: Global Examples of Hydrogen Strategies and Roadmap
European Union71
European Union
Current Hydrogen
DemandNot Available

Policy Target
Demand6GW capacity by 2024; 40 GW by 2030
10 MMTPA green H2 by 2030

Capital Allocated(US$)

609 billion

Demand Focus(Industry)

1. Chemical feedstock
2. Refining

Demand Focus(Transport)

1. Medium and heavy duty
2. Buses
3. Rail

Demand Focus(Others)

NA

Focussed
HydrogenColour/SourceLow Carbon - Blue / Green

Export/Import Focus

NA

Strategy Features
1. Market development timeline
2. Direct investments
3. Other economic and financial mechanisms
4. Legislative and regulatory measures

Germany72
Germany
Current Hydrogen
Demand

1.65 MMTPA

Policy Target
Demand

2.7 - 3.3 MMTPA by 2030

Capital Allocated(US$)

Focussed
HydrogenColour/SourceCarbon free - Blue / Green

15-25 billion

Export/Import Focus

ImportDemand Focus(Industry)

1. Iron and Steel
2.Chemical feedstock
3. Refining

Strategy Features

Demand Focus(Transport)

1. Medium and heavy duty
2. Buses
3. Rail

Demand Focus(Others)

NA

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

1. Market development timeline
2. Direct investments
3. Other economic and financial mechanisms
4. Legislative and regulatory measures
5. Standardisation strategy and priorities
6. Research and development initiatives
7. International strategy

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71

Japan73
Japan
Current Hydrogen
Demand2 MMTPA

Policy Target
Demand3 MMTPA by 2030 and
20 MMTPA by 2050 (5-30 by 2050)

Capital Allocated(US$)

Focussed
HydrogenColour/SourceBlue

664 million

Export/Import Focus

ImportDemand Focus(Industry)

NA

Strategy Features

Demand Focus(Transport)

1. Passenger Vehicle

Demand Focus(Others)

1. Heating
2. Power Generation

1. Hydrogen price target
2. Market development timeline
3. Direct investments
4. Standardisation strategy and priorities
5. Research and development initiatives
6. International strategy

South Korea74
South Kores
Current Hydrogen
Demand220 KTPA

Policy Target
DemandGrey / Blue / Green

3.9 MMTPA by 2030 and 27 MMTPA by 2050

Focussed
HydrogenColour/SourceCapital Allocated(US$)

653 million (annual targeted support forhydrogen project)

Export/Import Focus

ImportDemand Focus(Industry)

NA

Strategy Features

Demand Focus(Transport)

1. Passenger Vehicle
2. Medium and Heavy Duty
3. Buses

Demand Focus(Others)

1. Power Generation

1. Hydrogen price target
2. Market development timeline
3. Direct investments
4. Other economic and financial mechanisms
5. Standardisation strategy and priorities
6. Research and development initiatives
7. International strategy

United States75
United States
Current Hydrogen
Demand10 MMTPA

Policy Target
DemandNot available

Capital Allocated(US$)> 15 billion

Demand Focus(Industry)

1. Refining
2. Others

Demand Focus(Transport)

1. Passenger Vehicle
2. Medium and Heavy Duty
3. Buses
4. Aviation

Demand Focus(Others)

1. Heating
2. Power Generation

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

Focussed
HydrogenColour/SourceLow Carbon - Blue / Green /Others

Export/Import Focus

NA

Strategy Features
1. Hydrogen price target
2. Research and development initiatives
3. Other economic and financial mechanisms
4. Direct investments

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72Australia76
Australia
Current Hydrogen
Demand650 KTPA

Policy Target
DemandNot available

Capital Allocated(US$)

Focussed
HydrogenColour/SourceClean - Blue / Green

487 million

Export/Import Focus

ExportDemand Focus(Industry)

1. Chemical Feedstock

Strategy Features

Demand Focus(Transport)

1. Medium and Heavy Duty
2. Buses

Demand Focus(Others)

1. Heating

1. Hydrogen price target
2. Market development timeline
3. Direct investments
4. Other economic and financial mechanisms
5. Legislative and regulatory measures
6. Standardisation strategy and priorities
7. Research and development initiatives
8. International strategy

Chile77
Chile
Current Hydrogen
Demand58.5 KTPA

Policy Target
Demand5 GW/a(2025)
25 GW/a(2025)

Capital Allocated(US$)

50 million

Demand Focus(Industry)

1. Chemical Feedstock
2. Refining

Demand Focus(Transport)

1. Medium and Heavy Duty
2. Buses

Demand Focus(Others)

1. Heating

Focussed
HydrogenColour/SourceGreen

Export/Import Focus

ExportStrategy Features
1. Hydrogen price target
2. Market development timeline
3. Legislative and regulatory measures

Appendix B : Sectoral Demand Assessment
Refinery
Opportunity
India’s refinery sector is the fourth largest in the worldin terms of capacity, processing almost 250 million
tonnes of crude oil yearly.78 Currently the refinery
sector accounts for almost 3 million tonnes of hydrogen
demand, representing 46% of the total hydrogen
demand in the country.79 The majority of this hydrogenis generated from on-site SMR plants, which amount to
27 million tonnes of CO2 emissions currently, which are
expected to rise to 47 million tonnes by 2050.80

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

However, the refinery sector can witness a dramatic
decrease in CO2 emissions through a higher uptake ofgreen hydrogen. Green hydrogen uptake in the refinery
sector is estimated to start around 2024 at a 1% share,
which can reach 24% by 2030 and 100% by 2050.81 This
will enable close to zero CO2 emissions from hydrogenproduction by 2050 and cumulative CO2 emissions
savings of 820 million tonnes between now and 2050.82

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73

Ammonia

Cost Implications
Currently, use of green hydrogen for desulphurizationof different kinds of fuels is more expensive than usinghydrogen produced from SMR. However, refining is uniquein that the share of hydrogen cost per tonne of crude inrefinery operating is much less (around 2%– 4%).83 Hence,the cost premium associated with green hydrogen in the
final refined product is not as significant as in some othersectors like ammonia or methanol, where the share ofhydrogen cost as a percentage of total product cost can be
up to 80%–90%.84
Refinery operating cost per tonne of crude where hydrogenis supplied by renewables is estimated to be on parity withhydrogen supplied through SMR by 2027.85 However, withthe premium in the years before parity is reached being
so low (max 2% premium), this sector could be a potential
early market for green hydrogen deployment and use.

Hydrogen Demand Outlook
Hydrogen demand from the refinery sector will increase
until 2035. However, as petroleum demand starts
to decrease beyond 2035 on the account of higher
electrification of passenger and freight transport,hydrogen demand will also start to decrease. In addition
to electrification, other efficiency improvements suchas modal shift, logistics efficiency, non-motorizedtransport, and ride hailing can further reduce petroleum
and associated hydrogen demand from refineries.
Almost 100% of hydrogen demand from refineries in
2050 can be supplied via renewable electrolysis.
Exhibit 36
6

Hydrogen demand from refinery

FOSSIL FUEL BASED H2
GREEN H2H2 demand (million tonnes)

5

4

3

2

1

0
2020

2025

2030

Source: RMI analysis

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

2035

2040

2045

2050

Opportunity
With a growing need for fertilizer in the future, ammonia
demand is set to double in the next three decades,
increasing from 17 million tonnes in 2020 to 35 million
tonnes by 2050.86 This directly translates to CO2 emissionsof 40 million tonnes in 2020, increasing to 62 million tonnes
by 2050.87
The path to decarbonization of ammonia production
involves replacing fossil fuel-based hydrogen with thehydrogen produced from renewables. With a falling LCOE,
the cost of green hydrogen will decline, making green
ammonia competitive with conventional sources. However,existing urea plant locations and favourable renewableproduction in terms of lower costs are not aligned.88 Thismeans the location of green ammonia production in the
future might shift to favourable renewable-energy-richstates that will have considerations around transport andstorage. RTC renewable arrangement must be explored tomitigate some of these considerations.
In the efficient scenario with a higher uptake of greenhydrogen, India can abate around 550 million tonnes of
CO2 emissions cumulatively between 2020 and 2050.89
Switching to green hydrogen-based ammonia also
alleviates India’s energy security concerns by reducing
natural gas imports.

Cost Implications
Currently, green ammonia costs are higher thanammonia produced through the SMR process, even at
the higher end of natural gas prices of $12/mmBtu. Thisis mainly due to high capital costs and lower utilizationof electrolysers as well as higher electricity prices.
With improvements in technology and economies ofscale, electrolyser costs will decrease dramaticallyand renewable generation will get cheaper and moreabundant. This will make green hydrogen-basedammonia fairly competitive by 2030 even at the lower
end of a natural gas price of $8/mmBtu, where green
ammonia will cost around $393/tNH3 and grey ammonia
will cost $415/tNH3.90 Transport and storage costs need
to be considered if ammonia is to be used away fromthe point of production. Near-term projects that can use
on-site green hydrogen for ammonia production should
be prioritized in this decade, with a potential to movetowards deployment post 2030.

www.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

74

Hydrogen Demand Outlook
Ammonia production contributes to 48% of the current
hydrogen demand. By 2050, this demand is set to
double, representing the third largest source (21%)
of final hydrogen demand after steel and heavy-duty
trucking. The majority of this demand will be used forammonia production for the fertilizer industry. However,
if ammonia as fuel for the shipping industry becomes
viable, this demand will increase significantly. The shareof the hydrogen demand met with renewables will start
picking up around 2027 when green hydrogen-basedammonia reaches cost parity with natural gas-basedammonia, and will increase beyond that to represent
an 88% share by 2050.
Exhibit 37

Hydrogen demand from ammonia for
fertilizer

7

FOSSIL FUEL BASED H2
GREEN H2H2 demand (million tonnes)

6

5

4

3

2

1

0
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Source: RMI analysis

MethanolOpportunity
With India’s policy push towards using coal gasification
for hydrogen production for methanol, the majorityof hydrogen will be produced with coal by 2050 in abusiness-as-usual scenario. As a result, even thoughemissions from methanol currently represent a verysmall amount, they are bound to rise sharply, registering
the highest growth among all the industrial sectors forthe next three decades.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

However, green hydrogen can play a key role in
reducing emissions from this sector. With high uptakeof green hydrogen-based methanol production,
India can abate 150 million tonnes of CO2 emissions
cumulatively between 2020 and 2050.91 The majorityof these reductions will be achieved post 2040, with anincreasing share of green hydrogen-based production.
Cost Implications
India currently imports 80% of its methanol demand,
mainly because it is much cheaper than producing
methanol with imported natural gas.92 However, coalbased methanol production can be much more costeffective, given the cheap and abundant coal reserves
in India. That is one of the main reasons why India is
betting on coal-based methanol production—to drive thepercentage share of domestically produced methanolthat is cheaper. Currently, green hydrogen-based
methanol costs are much higher than the natural gas orcoal alternative. With falling costs of electrolysers andrenewable electricity, by 2030, green hydrogen-based
methanol will become cost-competitive with fossil fuelbased alternatives. Costs in 2030 for green hydrogenbased production could come down to $461/tonne ofmethanol,93 compared with $470/tonne for the coalbased alternative.94
Hydrogen Demand Outlook
Hydrogen demand for methanol will increase at a 12%
CAGR between 2020 and 2050. Currently natural gas
is used for the majority that demand. However with theinability to compete with cheap imports and India’s pushtowards coal-based methanol production, natural gas’s
share of hydrogen demand will decrease, while coal’sshare will increase. At the same time, green hydrogen’s
share will also start increasing once cost parity isachieved. By 2050, 60% of the hydrogen demand formethanol will be met via green hydrogen and the rest
via fossil fuels.

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75

Exhibit 38

Hydrogen demand from methanol

2.5

FOSSIL FUEL BASED H2

H2 demand (million tonnes)

GREEN H2
2.0

key role. Instead of the coal or natural gas-based DRI
process, hydrogen produced via renewables can be used
as a reductant to convert iron ore pellets to pig iron. This
process only leads to water as a by-product and creates noemissions. It’s important that the EAF process is suppliedwith renewable electricity, which will lead to further
emissions reductions.

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Source: RMI analysis

Iron and Steel
Opportunity
India is currently the second largest producer andconsumer of steel, after China.95 An abundance of ironore reserves and low-cost labour position India as a very
favourable market and production hub of steel. Steel ismajorly used in building various types of infrastructure,vehicles, appliances, machinery, and equipment.
With India witnessing rapid growth in urbanization,
infrastructure buildout, economic growth, and demandfor cars and trucks in the coming decades, steel demandis expected to increase fivefold between 2020 and 2050
(93 Mt in 2020 to 528 Mt in 2050).96
India uses all three processes (BF-BOF—44%, DRI-EAF/IF—
34%, and EAF/IF with scrap steel—22%97) to make steel.

Currently, emissions from steel production account fora significant share—11% of total CO2 emissions and 45%
of industrial CO2 emissions in India.98 With increasing
demand for steel and use of carbon-intensive processes
and rising exports, emissions from the steel sector in
India will rise from 269 million tonnes in 2020 to 951
million tonnes by 2050.99

Using green steel can help India abate 1.4 giga tonnes ofcumulative CO2 emissions between 2020 and 2050.100
Green steel will account for 20% of total steel demandand can substitute 98% of natural gas-based DRI steel
demand by 2050.101 Steel has other potential pathwaysfor emissions reductions complementary to the greenhydrogen pathway, these are:102 1) improving the energy
efficiency of existing furnaces and equipment, and2) switching to a smelting reduction process combinedwith CCS, which eliminates the need for a blast furnace.
India can become a very strong market for domestic
manufacturing and exports. Green steel exports will
increase on account of more infrastructure buildout
and the growth of automotive markets, allowing India
to position itself as a global leader in green steel
manufacturing.
Cost Implications
Currently, the conventional process of making steel andthe one most predominant in India, BF-BOF and coalbased DRI process respectively, are much cheaper thanthe hydrogen-based alternative. This is mainly becauseof the low cost of fuel for the conventional options. BothBF-BOF and the coal based DRI process use coking coaland non-coking coal respectively, which is much cheaper
than natural gas or green hydrogen.
However, with the falling costs of renewables, hydrogenbased steel can reach cost parity with the natural gasbased DRI process by 2027, with costs of green steel
around $460/tonne of steel.103 By 2030, steel produced
via the green hydrogen-based DRI process will be themost cost-competitive route, with costs around $411/
tonne of steel, compared with $443/tonne for BF-BOF
and $459/tonne for DRI-EAF.104

It is imperative to reduce emissions from the steel
sector in India, given the increasing demand and theassociated increasing emissions. Hydrogen can play aHarnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

76Hydrogen Demand Outlook
Steel production via natural gas-based DRI-EAF
contributes to 0.3 million tonnes of hydrogen demandcurrently. That is bound to rise to 8 million tonnes by
2050.
Green hydrogen demand from steel production will starttaking shape around 2030 and increase slowly until
2035 when pilot projects are deployed. The demand is
expected to rise sharply beyond that when there is fullExhibit 39

Hydrogen demand from steel in India

FOSSIL FUEL BASED H2

H2 demand (million tonnes)

Electrification of HDVs can help reduce shipping andlogistics costs, improve air quality, and reduce carbon
emissions. Between 2020 and 2050, India can abate
2 giga tonnes of CO2 emissions (0.7 giga tonnes fromfuel cell electric trucks and 1.3 giga tonnes from battery
electric trucks) and save $208 billion on oil import bills
by transitioning to electric.
Two technology options exist to electrify HDVs—battery
electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell electric vehicles(FCEVs). Hydrogen-powered FCEVs offer key advantages
and make a strong candidate to play a part in roadfreight HDV decarbonization, along with BEVs. In thenear term, retrofitting existing diesel trucks with fuelcell applications could also be pursued.

GREEN H2

8

Although heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) represent only 20%
of total freight vehicles on the road, they are the biggest
contributor towards India’s road freight movement, haulingover 74% of road freight.108 They are also the biggest
emitter, producing 60% of road-freight CO2 emissions,which is expected to increase to 66% by 2050.109

7
6
5
4
3

Cost Implications

2

Opportunity

Currently, both BEVs and FCEVs are more expensive thandiesel trucks on a total-cost-of-ownership basis. The major
drivers behind that are the higher capital cost of EVs,
higher interest rates charged, and costs associated withbattery packs and fuel cell stacks. However, declining
battery and fuel cell prices due to production scale-up
and technology improvements (between 2019 and 2030,
battery and fuel cell prices are expected to fall by 64
percent and 61 percent respectively110), improved charging,and hydrogen refuelling station utilization, BEVs and
FCEVs will be at cost parity with diesel trucks by 2027 and2031 respectively.111 A stronger policy push towards HDVelectrification can bring the cost parity even sooner.

Freight transport is critical to India’s growing economy,
providing citizens with goods, helping grow businesses,
and improving quality of life. Road freight is an essential
pillar of the overall freight transport sector, contributing
to 71% of freight movement and 95% of freight-related
CO2 emissions.105 Emissions from the road freight sector
will increase fourfold between now and 2050 (188 Mt CO2
in 2020 to 797 Mt CO2 in 2050) in a business-as-usual
scenario.106 Moreover, the cost of logistics as a share of
GDP is 14% in India, much higher than in the European
Union or the United States.107

Hydrogen Demand Outlook
Currently, hydrogen demand for the transport sector isalmost nonexistent, as no FCEVs exist on the market inIndia. However, in the efficient scenario, if HDV FCEVs
sales penetration start to pick up around 2026, andreaches about 30% by 2050, the hydrogen and fuelcell system demand could increase, reaching 6.4 million
tonnes and 16 GW, respectively, by 2050. In such a
scenario, HDVs could amount to 22% of final hydrogen
demand in India by 2050, and the cumulative market

1
0
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Source: RMI analysis

scale deployment. Steel will contribute to 27% of final
hydrogen demand in 2050, the highest demand among
all the potential sectors.

Long-Haul, Heavy-Duty Road Freight

Harnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

77

Exhibit 40

Hydrogen demand from HDVs in theefficient scenario in India

7

H2 demand (million tonnes)

6

5

4

CAGR = 31%

32

In contrast to technologies such as Li-ion batteries, theper unit costs of power-H2-power grow more slowly
with a decreasing utilization factor. It is this relationshipbetween per unit costs and utilization factor that makes
power-H2-power among the most promising options
for long-term storage (alongside other potential longterm chemical storage vectors, like ammonia).113 Beyond
providing flexibility, hydrogen is also seen as a potential
fuel source for peaking power generation throughexisting gas turbines, and for power generation andback-up applications for distributed assets like cell-phone
towers and replacement of diesel gensets.

1

0

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Source: RMI analysis

size for fuel cells between 2020 and 2050 could be USD
40–54 billion (INR 3-4 lakh crore).112 Such rapid growthsignifies the opportunity for domestic manufacturing of
FCEVs and fuel cell system components in India.

Power
Opportunity
The power sector in India is underdoing dramatictransition led by electrification, demand growth, anda large increase in renewable energy generation. Highdemand growth and renewable generation opens up thechallenges and prospect of demand flexibility and VRE
integration. Technical solutions like demand response,battery energy storage, and supply-side flexibility ofthermal power plants are increasingly being touted aspart of the suite of solutions.
Hydrogen advocates have proposed the concept of
power-H2-power as another form to provide storage
and flexibility to the grid, opening an end-use sector
for hydrogen. Power-H2-power involves generatinghydrogen in times of excess generation, storing it either
physically or chemically (e.g., ammonia), and then attime of need, discharging it either through gas turbines(OCGT or CCGT) or fuel cells.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

Cost Implications and Demand Considerations
Hydrogen’s usefulness for power, however, has its shareof general costs. First, the conversion losses and roundtrip efficiency of generation storage and consumptionof hydrogen in a power-H2-power process is substantial
enough to warrant a rethink of the usefulness forhydrogen especially when compared with other storage
technologies. Round-trip conversion efficiency forcurrent technologies may be in the order of 33%,
increasing potentially to slightly less than 50% withtechnological improvements. Thus, converting electricity
into hydrogen, or a similar chemical energy carrier
like ammonia, is an inefficient process with substantial
energy losses across the conversion chain.114 Secondly,
without cost reduction expectations being met, capitalcosts for both electrolysers and fuel cells remains
substantially high.
In the Indian power sector, the opportunity of hydrogenis further limited. Considering only the use case forpeaking power, it is only economical at margin when
prices are where they are expected to be in 2050. By
that time, there are a fair degree of technical and nontechnical unknowns. Carbon pricing can theoreticallyalter the economics of hydrogen. However, even then,the challenge of supply, transport, and storage will
possibly increase the cost of using hydrogen purely formeeting peaking power needs in India.
When it comes to the end use of hydrogen for powerH2-power applications, especially for seasonal storage,
the unique load structure and renewable profile hinders
the potential for hydrogen. Unlike countries in higher

www.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

78

Exhibit 41

Economics of battery energy storage and power-H2-power

2050 Costs

2020 Costs
20%

Dispatch from Storage(% of total load)

Dispatch from Storage(% of total load)

20%

15%

10%

5%

15%

10%

5%

0%

0%
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0%

100%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Wind and Solar Generation(% of total generation)

Wind and Solar Generation(% of total generation)

DISPATCH FROM H2 STORAGE

20%

DISPATCH FROM BATTERY STORAGE

Source: TERI115

latitudes with large winter heating loads, India’s levelof seasonal variation is limited, except in certain
geographies in north India. The unknown here is howthat might change with higher cooling penetration. But
even then, India’s most cost-effective renewable source
is solar, which requires mostly intraday and non interseasonal balancing. Within this context, TERI’s analysis
shows that power-H2-power is only required at very highpenetrations of VRE (above 80%). Battery storage isdispatched long before hydrogen gets a chance to be apart of the power balancing mix.

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

A key conclusion is that hydrogen and other seasonal
storage options are only going to be necessary tosqueeze out the last 10%–20% of dispatchable fossil
generation during the transition to a very high VRE
system. IEA’s generation outlook estimates VRE toaccount for at most 69% by 2040 in its sustainable
development scenario. Therefore, the prospect for
power-H2-power in India is going to be visible only at
the tail end of our scenario period and that too only
marginal with limited impact.

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79

Appendix C: Definitionsi.

Hydrogen causes corrosion and brittleness whenit comes into contact with some metals, requiring
new coatings and other protective measures.

ii.

Cryo-compressed hydrogen storage refers to thestorage of hydrogen at cryogenic temperaturesin a vessel that can be pressurized (nominally to
250-350 atm), in contrast to current cryogenic
vessels that store liquid hydrogen at near-ambientpressures (Argonne National Laboratory, 2014).

iii. All monetary units in the report are listed in
US dollars.
iv.

The Hydrogen Council's Net-Zero analysis puts
potential hydrogen demand 690 million tonnes by
2050, with total required investment to be around$7-8 trillion.

v.

Alternate route of hydrogen production likebio-hydrogen are not addressed in the report.
While limited in production potential, bio-hydrogenfrom agricultural waste could have locallysynergistic advantage for distributed generation
where resources and end consumers are readily
available. Potential for bio-hydrogen should befurther explored.

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80

Endnotes
1.

2.

3.

Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2020
International Energy Agency, September 2020
https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technologyperspectives-2020
Tegler, M. Hydrogen Roadmaps Under Development
Have Doubled This Year. Bloomberg New Energy
Finance, August 12, 2021
https://www.bnef.com/shorts/12191
Roy, A.“India to meet climate goals, be greenhydrogen hub: Modi on Independence Day,”
Hindustan Times, August 15, 2021
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/
independence-day-2021-hydrogen-energy-hub-solarenergy-india-climate-goals-modi-101629012924744.html

4.

RMI Analysis based on IEA data in Energy
Technology Perspectives, 2020

5.

RMI Analysis

6.

Ibid

11.

Ibid

12. Dias, V., Pochet, M., Contino, F., & Jeanmart, H.
Energy and Economic Costs of Chemical Storage
Frontiers in Mechanical Engineering, May 29, 2020
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/
fmech.2020.00021/full
13. Tegler, M., Hydrogen Roadmaps, BNEF
https://www.bnef.com/shorts/12191
14. Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2020
International Energy Agency
https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technologyperspectives-2020
15. Hydrogen On The Horizon: Ready, Almost Set, Go?
World Energy Council
https://www.worldenergy.org/assets/downloads/
Innovation_Insights_Briefing_-_Hydrogen_on_the_Horizon_-_Ready%2C_Almost_Set%2C_Go_-_
July_2021.pdf
16. Albrecht, U., Bünger, U., Michalski, J., Raksha, T.,
Wurster, R., & Zerhusen, J. International Hydrogen
Studies World Energy Council, September 2020
https://www.weltenergierat.de/wp-content/
uploads/2020/10/WEC_H2_Strategies_finalreport.pdf

7.

Ibid

8.

Singh, S.,“Budget 2021-22 : Major focus on energy
transition, traditional reform areas, Energyworld.
February 1, 2021
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.
com/news/renewable/budget-2021-22major-focus-on-energy-transition-traditionalreformareas/80627087#:~:text=Sha%20also%20
said%20a%20National,population%20of%20
over%201%20million.

17. 2H 2021 Hydrogen Market Outlook
Bloomberg New Energy Finance, August 2021
https://www.bnef.com/insights/26977

Energy Sector Management Assistance Program.
Green Hydrogen in Developing Countries.
World Bank, 2020
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/
handle/10986/34398

19. Ibid; and 2H 2021 Hydrogen Market Outlook
Bloomberg New Energy Financehttps://www.bnef.com/insights/26977

9.

10. Storage and Transport. eniscuola, February 2011
http://www.eniscuola.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/
pdf_hydrogen_2.pdf

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

18. The Future of Hydrogen: Seizing today’s opportunities
IEA, June 2019https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen

20. Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction: Scaling Up
Electrolysers To Meet The 1.5° C Climate Goal

www.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

81InternationalRenewable Energy Agency,
December 2020
https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/
Publication/2020/Dec/IRENA_Green_hydrogen_cost_2020.pdf
21. Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2020
International Energy Agency
https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technologyperspectives-2020
22. The Future of Hydrogen, IEA
https://www.iea.org/reports/the-future-of-hydrogen
23. Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP) 2020, IEA
https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technologyperspectives-2020

scaling-uplow carbon hydrogen across the economy
The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI), 2020
https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/
Report%20on%20The%20Potential%20
Role%20of%20Hydrogen%20in%20India%20%E2%80%93%20%27Harnessing%20the%20
Hype%27.pdf
30. REFHYNE Clean Refinery Hydrogen for Europe,
REFHYNEhttps://refhyne.eu/;
Shell Rheinland Refinery Update
ITM Power, June 2019https://www.itm-power.com/news/shell-rheinlandrefinery-update
31. RMI Analysis

Net Zero by 2050 - A Roadmap for the Global
Energy Sector, IEA, 2021
https://www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050

32. Anhydrous Ammonia, Minnesota Department ofAgriculture, https://www.mda.state.mn.us/pesticidefertilizer/anhydrous-ammonia

Hydrogen for Net-Zero - A critical cost-competitiveenergy vector, Hydrogen Council, 2021
https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/
uploads/2021/11/Hydrogen-for-Net-Zero_FullReport.pdf

33. Fertilizer Fact Sheet: Ammonia, The Fertilizer
Institute, RMI https://www.tfi.org/sites/default/files/
documents/ammoniafactsheet.pdf

24. Ibid.
25. 2H 2021 Hydrogen Market Outlook, BNEF
https://www.bnef.com/insights/26977
26. Ibid.
27. Smil, V., Energy Systems: Transition and Innovation
Innovation Agora, September 2019https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szikg74kgnM
28. Waiver of inter-state transmission charges ontransmission of the electricity generated from solar
and wind sources of energy
Ministry of Power, June 2021
https://powermin.gov.in/sites/default/files/webform/
notices/Waiver_of_inter_state_transmission_charges_
Order_dated_21_June_2021.pdf
29. Hall, W., Spencer, T., Renjith, G., & Dayal, S., The
Potential Role of Hydrogen in India-A pathway forHarnessing Green Hydrogen

34. Tullo, A. H, Yara plans to make green ammonia in
Norway. C&EN, September 2020
https://cen.acs.org/business/petrochemicals/Yaraplans-make-green-ammonia/98/web/2020/12'Green' ammonia is the key to meeting the twin
challenges of the 21st century
Siemens-Energy
https://www.siemens-energy.com/uk/en/offeringsuk/green-ammonia.html
Brown, T, Green ammonia in Australia, Spain, andthe United States
Ammonia Energy Association, October 2020
https://www.ammoniaenergy.org/articles/greenammonia-in-australia-spain-and-the-united-states/
35. Projects, Carbon Cycling International: https://www.
carbonrecycling.is/projects; and North-C-Methanol,
North CCU Hub: https://northccuhub.eu/north-cmethanol/
36. möjlighet!, Hybrit,
https://www.hybritdevelopment.se/
www.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

82ArcelorMittal Europe to produce ’green steel’starting in 2020, ArcelorMittal, October 2020,
https://corporate.arcelormittal.com/media/newsarticles/arcelormittal-europe-to-produce-greensteel-starting-in-2020
IGAR: reforming carbon to reduce iron ore,
ArcelorMittal, https://storagearcelormittalprod.blob.
core.windows.net/media/lukmokpc/igar-contentfinal.pdf
37. Initial IMO GHG Strategy
International Maritime Organization
https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/
Pages/Reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions-fromships.aspx;
Ammonia Energy Association
https://www.ammoniaenergy.org/;
Clean Skies forTomorrow: Sustainable Aviation
World Economic Forum and McKinsey & Company, 2020
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Clean_Skies_
for_Tomorrow_Sustainable_Aviation_Fuel_Policy_
Toolkit_2021.pdf
38. Department of Fertilizer
Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers(MoC&F)
39. McDonald, Z
Injecting hydrogen in natural gas grids could provide
steady demand the sector needs to develop
S&P Global, May 9, 2020
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/marketinsights/blogs/natural-gas/051920-injectinghydrogen-in-natural-gas-grids-could-provide-steadydemand-the-sector-needs-to-develop
40. Industrial cluster policy, European Commission
https://ec.europa.eu/growth/industry/policy/
cluster_enPanerali, K., & Jamison, S
Industrial clusters are critical to getting to net-zero.
Here’s why, World Economic Forum, October 29, 2020
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/10/industrialclusters-can-be-a-key-lever-for-decarbonization-hereswhy/

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

NortH2, NortH2,
https://www.north2.eu/en
41. CEEW Analysis
42. Hall, W., Spencer, T., Renjith, G., & Dayal, S.,
The Potential Role of Hydrogen in India - A pathway for
scaling-up low carbon hydrogen across the economy
The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI), 2020
https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/
Report%20on%20The%20Potential%20
Role%20of%20Hydrogen%20in%20India%20%E2%80%93%20%27Harnessing%20the%20
Hype%27.pdf
43. Indian Oil to build India's first green hydrogen plantat Mathura refinery. Indian Oil, July 2021
https://iocl.com/NewsDetails/59274
NTPC invites tender to set up India’s first Green
Hydrogen Fuelling Station in Leh. NTPC, July 2021
https://www.ntpc.co.in/en/media/press-releases/
details/ntpc-invites-tender-set-india’s-first-greenhydrogen-fuelling-station-leh
44. Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction: Scaling Up
Electrolysers To Meet The 1.5° C Climate Goal
International Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA),
December 2020
https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/
Publication/2020/Dec/IRENA_Green_hydrogen_cost_2020.pdf
45. RMI Interview, Electrolyser manufacturing in India
Ohmium, November, 2020.
46. India as a major country of the world with appropriatetechnology, capital including FDI and extraordinary
human resource contributing significantly to theglobal economy : RaviShankar Prasad
Ministry of Electronics & IT,June 2, 2020
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?
PRID=1628583

www.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

8347. Cabinet approves PLI Scheme to 10 key Sectors forEnhancing India’s Manufacturing Capabilities andEnhancing Exports. Atmanirbhar Bharat, PiB Delhi
and Cabinet, November 11, 2020
https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.
aspx?PRID=1671912
48. Report on hydrogen storage and applications otherthan transportation, MNRE, June 2016
https://www.eqmagpro.com/wp-content/
uploads/2016/10/Annexure-V-Report-on-HydrogenStorage.pdf
India Country Status Report on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
Ministry of Science and Technology, 2020
https://static.pib.gov.in/WriteReadData/userfiles/
India%20Country%20Status%20Report%20
on%20Hydrogen%20and%20Fuel%20Cell.pdf
Path to Hydrogen Competitiveness - A Cost
Perspective, Hydrogen Council, January 20, 2020
https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/
uploads/2020/01/Path-to-HydrogenCompetitiveness_Full-Study-1.pdf
49. Communication from the commission to theEuropean parliament, the council, the European
economic and social committee and the committeeof the regions-a hydrogen strategy for a climateneutral Europe, European Commission, 2020
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/
hydrogen_strategy.pdf
50. Green Hydrogen Catapult - World’s green hydrogen
leaders unite to drive 50-fold scale-up in six years
Climate Champions (UNFCC), December 8, 2020
https://racetozero.unfccc.int/green-hydrogencatapult/
51. Fueling the Future of Mobility - Hydrogen and fuelcell solutions for transportation
Deloitte and Ballard, 2020
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/
cn/Documents/finance/deloitte-cn-fueling-thefuture-of-mobility-en-200101.pdf

Harnessing Green Hydrogen

Path to Hydrogen Competitiveness - A Cost
Perspective, Hydrogen Council,January 20, 2020
https://hydrogencouncil.com/wp-content/
uploads/2020/01/Path-to-HydrogenCompetitiveness_Full-Study-1.pdf
52. Hydrogen Economy Outlook, BNEF, May 2020
https://www.bnef.com/insights/22971
53. About HESC, Hydrogen Energy Supply Chain Project
https://www.hydrogenenergysupplychain.com/
about-hesc/
54. Hydrogen Economy Outlook, BNEF, May 2020
https://www.bnef.com/insights/22971
55. McDonald, Z, Hydrogen transport moving molecules
a core challenge for H2 market growth
S&P Global, January 23, 2020
https://www.spglobal.com/en/researchinsights/articles/hydrogen-transport-movingmolecules-a-core-challenge-for-h2-marketgrowth#:~:text=Hydrogen%20
56. Tegler, M. Hydrogen Roadmaps Under Development
Have Doubled This Year, BNEF, August 12, 2021
https://www.bnef.com/shorts/12191
57. Green shift to create 1 billion tonne ‘green ammonia’
market? Argus Media, June, 2020
https://view.argusmedia.com/rs/584-BUW-606/
images/Argus%20White%20Paper%20-%20
Green%20Ammonia.pdf
58. Japan targets 3mn t/yr of ammonia fuel use by2030, Argus Media, February 8, 2021
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2184741japan-targets-3mn-tyr-of-ammonia-fuel-useby-2030
59. Green shift to create 1 billion tonne ‘green ammonia’
market? Argus Media, June, 2020
https://view.argusmedia.com/rs/584-BUW-606/
images/Argus%20White%20Paper%20-%20
Green%20Ammonia.pdf

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60. Gerres, T., Lehne, J., Mete, G., Schenk, S., & Swalec, CGreen steel production: how G7 countries can helpchange the global landscape, Leadit, June, 2021
https://www.industrytransition.org/content/
uploads/2021/06/g7-green-steel-tracker-policy-brief.
pdf
61. Ibid
62. H2 Green Steel completes strong USD 105 million
initial funding round to accelerate the transition into
fossil-free steel making. Innoenergy, May 25, 2021
https://www.innoenergy.com/news-events/h2green-steel-completes-strong-usd-105-million-initialfunding-round-to-accelerate-the-transition-intofossil-free-steel-making/
63. Tata Steel plans to go 'green' in UK with electricarc furnaces: Report, Business Standard, BusinessStandard, July 19, 2020
https://www.business-standard.com/article/
companies/tata-steel-plans-to-go-green-in-uk-withelectric-arc-furnaces-report-120071900773_1.html
64. Blank, T. K The Disruptive Potential of Green SteelRMI 2019
https://rmi.org/insight/the-disruptive-potential-ofgreen-steel/
65. Hoffmann, C., Hoey, M. V., & Zeumer, B
Decarbonization challenge for steel
McKinsey & Company, June 3, 2020
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-andmining/our-insights/decarbonization-challenge-forsteel
66. 2020 World Steel in Figures
World Steel Association, 2020
https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/2020World-Steel-in-Figures.pdf
67. Blank, T. K, The Disruptive Potential of Green SteelRMI, 2019https://rmi.org/insight/the-disruptive-potential-ofgreen-steel
68. Mann, W., Meisel, J., Bodnar, P., & Granoff, I.
Recasting the Golden Key, RMI, 2020
https://rmi.org/insight/recasting-the-golden-key
Harnessing Green Hydrogen

Energy Technology Perspective (ETP) 2020
International Energy Agency (IEA), September, 2020
https://www.iea.org/reports/energy-technologyperspectives-2020
Hall, W., Spencer, T., Renjith, G., & Dayal, S.,
The Potential Role of Hydrogen in India - A pathway for
scaling-up low carbon hydrogen across the economy,
The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI), 2020
https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/
Report%20on%20The%20Potential%20
Role%20of%20Hydrogen%20in%20India%20%E2%80%93%20%27Harnessing%20the%20
Hype%27.pdf
About Hydrogen, HydrogenOne Capital
https://hydrogenonecapitalgrowthplc.com/about/
about-hydrogen/Hydrogen from Renewable Power- Technology
Outlook for the Energy Transition, International
Renewable Energy Agency(IRENA), 2018https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/
Publication/2018/Sep/IRENA_Hydrogen_from_renewable_power_2018.pdf
69. Singh, S, Budget 2021-22 : Major focus on energy
transition, traditional reform areas
ET Energyworld, February 1, 2021
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.
com/news/renewable/budget-2021-22-majorfocus-on-energy-transition-traditional-reformareas/80627087#:~:text=Sha%20also%20said%20
a%20National,population%20of%20over%201%20
million
70. RMI Analysis
71. Communication from the commission to theEuropean parliament, the council, the European
economic and social committee and the committeeof the regions- a hydrogen strategy for a climateneutral Europe. European Commission, 2020
https://ec.europa.eu/energy/sites/ener/files/
hydrogen_strategy.pdf
72. The National Hydrogen Strategy, Federal Ministry for
Economic Affairs and Energy, June 2020www.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

85

https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/Publikationen/
Energie/the-national-hydrogen-strategy.html

78. Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (2019 data) and TERI
79. RMI Analysis

73. The Strategic Road Map for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
METI, 2019https://www.meti.go.jp/english/press/2019/
pdf/0312_002a.pdf
Japan: Strategic Hydrogen Roadmap, Ministry ofForeign Affairs and Trade, October 30, 2020
https://www.mfat.govt.nz/assets/Trade-General/
Trade-Market-reports/Japan-Strategic-HydrogenRoadmap-30-October-2020-PDF.pdf
74. Ha, J. E, Hydrogen Economy Plan in Korea,
Netherlands Enterprise Agency, January 18, 2019https://www.rvo.nl/sites/default/files/2019/03/
Hydrogen-economy-plan-in-Korea.pdf

80. RMI Analysis
81. Ibid
82. Ibid
83. BCG Analysis
84. RMI Analysis
85. RMI Analysis
86. RMI Analysis
87. Ibid

Hydrogen Economy Roadmap of Korea, Ministry ofTrade Industry and Energy,
https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/45185a_
fc2f37727595437590891a3c7ca0d025.pdf
Lim. D., Lee. J. S., Korea sees tenfold rise inhydrogen fuel use by 2030, The Korea Economic
Daily, October 7, 2021,
https://www.kedglobal.com/newsView/
ked202110070016
75. Roadmap to US Hydrogen Economy,
Cell and Hydrogen Energy Association, 2020
https://static1.squarespace.com/
static/53ab1feee4b0bef0179a1563/t/5e7ca9d6c8fb
3629d399fe0c/1585228263363/Road+Map+to+a+
US+Hydrogen+Economy+Full+Report.pdf
76. Bruce S, T. M,
National Hydrogen Roadmap, CSIRO, 2018https://www.csiro.au/en/work-with-us/services/
consultancy-strategic-advice-services/csiro-futures/
futures-reports/hydrogen-roadmap

77. National Green Hydrogen Stretgy
Ministeri de Energia, 2020
https://energia.gob.cl/sites/default/files/national_
green_hydrogen_strategy_-_chile.pdf

88. CEEW Analysis
89. RMI Analysis
90. RMI Analysis
91. Ibid
92. Hall, W., Spencer, T., Renjith, G., & Dayal, S.
The Potential Role of Hydrogen in India - A pathway for
scaling-uplow carbon hydrogen across the economy
The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI), 2020
https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/
Report%20on%20The%20Potential%20
Role%20of%20Hydrogen%20in%20India%20%E2%80%93%20%27Harnessing%20the%20
Hype%27.pdf
93. RMI Analysis
94. CEEW Analysis
95. World Steel Association (2020)
2020 World Steel in Figures
Retrieved from World Steel Association
https://worldsteel.org/wp-content/uploads/2020World-Steel-in-Figures.pdf
96. RMI Analysis

Harnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

8697. RMI Analysis based on data from TERI and World
Steel Association

110.

98. RMI Analysis

Fueling the Future of Mobility-Hydrogen andfuel cell solutions for transportation, Deloitte,
Ballard, 2020
https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/EN/
Publikationen/Energie/the-national-hydrogenstrategy.html

99. RMI Analysis
100. RMI Analysis
101. TERI Analysis
102. Hall, W., Spencer, T., Renjith, G., & Dayal, S. The
Potential Role of Hydrogen in India- A pathway for
scaling-up low carbon hydrogen across the economy
The Energy and Resource Institute (TERI), 2020
https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2020-12/
Report%20on%20The%20Potential%20
Role%20of%20Hydrogen%20in%20India%20%E2%80%93%20%27Harnessing%20the%20
Hype%27.pdf
Decarbonization Challenge for Steel
Mckinsey & Company, 2020
https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-andmining/our-insights/decarbonization-challenge-forsteel

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020, BNEF, 2020
https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicleoutlook

111.

RMI Analysis

112.

RMI Analysis

113.

Hall, W., Spencer, T., Renjith, G., & Dayal, S. The
Potential Role of Hydrogen in India-A pathway
for scaling-up low carbon hydrogen across the
economyThe Energy and Resource Institute (TERI), 2020
https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/
files/2021-07/Report_on_The_Potential_Role_of_%20Hydrogen_in_India.pdf

114.

Ibid

115.

Ibid

103. RMI Analysis
104. RMI Analysis
105. RMI Analysis
106. RMI Analysis
107. Press Release on National Logistics Policy
Ministry of Commerce and Industry, 2020
https://commerce.gov.in/press-releases/
national-logisticspolicy-will-be-released-soonpolicy-to-create-a-single-window-e-logisticsmarket-will-generate-employment-and-makemsmes-competitive-nirmala-sitharaman/
108. RMI Analysis
109. Ibid

Harnessing Green Hydrogenwww.niti.gov.in | www.rmi.org/

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