Principal Research Results

Scenario Analyses for the Future Climate Regime

BackgroundThe negotiations on the next commitment period from 2013 are expected to begin in 2005. Recognizing that an agreement
on future commitments is essential for meeting the long-term expectations of policymakers and stakeholders, many countries have already begun internal debates on the future regime.

Objectives
The objective of this study is to develop scenarios as to how the future climate regime may evolve, and to propose more effective regime that can be an alternative to the Kyoto Protocol.

Principal Results
This study was conducted as an international research project, with intensive discussions among key researchers from Japan,
Norway, German, China, and the United States. The key findings of this study were:• The biggest problem in the climate negotiation so far is the framing of the climate change problem as the allocation of emission quotas. This framing created an adversarial style of negotiation that resulted in distrust among countries and the deadlock in the negotiations. Moreover, the negotiations have been characterized by unpredictable outcomes.
• Recognizing this framing problem, the Orchestra of Treaties scenario assumes that countries share the following principles for rebuilding the climate regime:(1) recognize the sovereignty concerns attending energy policies;(2) build upon national interests in technology and development;(3) avoid conflicts and enhance cooperation by appropriately framing core issues; and(4) address not only short-term emission cuts but also long-term technological change.
• If countries share the principles, the Orchestra of Treaties scenario emerges, where multiple efforts are pursued by flexible coordination of actors motivated through diverse incentives. The emerging regime will consist of four building blocks, of which three growoutside of UNFCCC (see Table).

Future Developments
The political interests and views have been diverse across countries. If this continues to be the case, the Orchestra ofTreaties may be the most environmentally effective regime among the alternatives.
Main Researcher: Taishi Sugiyama,Senior Researcher, Energy and Environmental Policy Sector, Socio-economic Research Center
References
Sugiyama et al.: 2004, The Scenario Analysis Of Global Policy to Prevent Global Warming, CRIEPI Working Paper Y03012, CentralResearch Institute of Electric Power Industry.
Sugiyama et al.: 2004, Orchestra of Treaties: A Future Climate Regime Scenario with Multiple Treaties among Like-mindedCountries, CRIEPI Working Paper Y03013, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry.

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C. Harmonization of energy and environment

Table1 Building blocks of Orchestra of Treaties

Group of Emission
Markets (GEM)

Zero Emission
Technology Treaty(ZETT)Climate-wise
Development Treaty(CDT)

UNFCCC protocolsand mechanisms

GEM begins with separate domestic markets without
internationally imposed emission targets. The markets are thengradually coordinated through price signals. The advantage ofthis pathway is that it fosters the establishment of emission
markets without conflicting with sovereignty concerns forenergy policy, thereby enabling key large emitters to establish
emission markets.
ZETT addresses long-term technological change. This will set
zero CO2 emission from the energy sector as the long-term goal,
thereby creating strong signals to stakeholders. It will begin as a
non-binding pledge and review system so that it does notconflict with sovereignty concerns.
CDT addresses the concerns of developing countries, which aredevelopment, adaptation, technological transfer and mitigation.
In this treaty, developed countries agree to revise theirassistance policies to make development more sustainable andclimate-wise.
UNFCCC will serve as an information exchange arena, target
funding mechanism and a political focal point.

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