2021
1/13
No. R20-12
The Middle East Institute of Japan is a nonprofit public interest foundation funded by duesfrom individual and corporate members.

[Members only]

Middle East Analysis Report
Various conflicts and clashes occurred in the Middle East throughout 2020, and thishad impacts inside and outside the region. The Middle East Institute of Japan has put
together the following retrospective overview of the fundamental situation in the
Middle East in 2020.
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A Review of the Situation in the Middle East in 2020
The Middle East Institute of Japan
1. Overview
In 2020, the most significant trends in the Middle East were the transformation ofsocioeconomic life due to the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections and theblow that this dealt to the economy. While the spread of COVID-19 infections is an
unprecedented crisis that has disrupted life in countries worldwide, in the Middle East, weak
medical infrastructure and lifestyle norms involving close contact with family and friends
have greatly affected the situation, leading to an increase in patients. However, the lower
number of infections and deaths compared with Western countries was partly due to strong
security institutions that are able to compel citizens to comply with the infection control
measures discussed below.
Middle East countries have experienced multiple "waves" of increasing infections, and ineach wave, medical facilities have been unable to handle patient treatment due to the lowlevel of medical technology, small number of infectious disease experts, and shortage ofnecessary medical equipment such as ventilators, with medical professionals also being
infected. Furthermore, some distinctive lifestyle factors in the Middle East have played a rolein the COVID-19 crisis, including the frequency of gatherings with family and friends, the1

Middle East Institute of Japan, Middle East Analysis Report, 01/13/2020, No. R20-12

number of households where a large number of people live in a small place and worship ingroups. These lifestyle factors have made it difficult to comply with social distancing, which
is an important part of containing the spread of infections, and there are multiple examplesof patient numbers surging in various communities. The governments of the Middle Easterncountries have also urged citizens to practice social distancing, wear masks, and sanitize theirhands, as well as attempted to curb the spread of infection by closing borders, regulating
movement between cities, stopping the operation of businesses and stores or shortening theirbusiness hours, and providing financial compensation to companies. In particular, Saudi
Arabia, which contains the Islamic holy land and follows strict religious precepts, has taken
unprecedented measures such as placing restrictions on people going out during Ramadan(the month of fasting) and restricting the number of people who participate in the Hajj (theIslamic pilgrimage, essentially limiting participation to residents of Saudi Arabia). The
number of new infections was successfully kept down as a result (although infections are
now increasing again in many countries), but Middle Eastern countries are still suffering fromCOVID-19’s negative effects such as a sharp decline in tourism revenue and an increase in
deficits due to major fiscal stimulus policies. In the oil-producing countries, falling oil prices
triggered by worldwide decline in economic activity has led to decreased revenues. Yemen,
Syria, and Afghanistan, which all have ongoing conflicts, also have another problem: they
are unable to ascertain the actual state of infections because of the collapse of medical
infrastructure due to fighting and the difficulty of conducting aid initiatives.
A second important trend is the growing tension around the Iran situation. With harshsanctions from the United States and the spread of COVID-19 infections, Iran is between arock and a hard place in both domestic and international politics. The Trump administrationin the United States has accused Iran of plotting to destabilize the region through its nuclear
program, weapons development, and assistance to various armed groups, and killed
Commander Soleimani of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)’s Quds Force inJanuary 2020, which ramped up tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, in a strategy that
the Trump administration named "maximum pressure," the United States unilaterally
declared a snapback (re-imposition of United Nations [UN] sanctions) despite opposition
from European countries, strengthened its own sanctions, and continued to take hardline
policies against Iran. The United States aims to use such policies to force Iran to abandon
nuclear development and the development of ballistic missiles. Sanctions against Iran havestrained the country's economic situation, and there is growing dissatisfaction with President
Rouhani's policy of international cooperation inside Iran. Conservative hardliners who view
the Rouhani administration's approach as weak have gained power in the Iranian Parliament2Middle East Institute of Japan, Middle East Analysis Report, 01/13/2020, No. R20-12

and are increasingly pushing to promote the enrichment of low enriched uranium for peacefulpurposes. There have also been incidents seemingly aimed at destabilizing the situation in
Iran, such as an explosion at the Natanz Nuclear Plant and the assassination of nuclear
physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh (the perpetrators of these incidents are unknown). These
events have also strengthened conservative hardliners. It cannot be denied that the Trumpadministration's series of hardline policies have led to increased tensions in the region andinvited the rise of conservative hardliners within Iran. Meanwhile, although Arab countriesof the Persian Gulf that are allied with the United States see Iran as a threat, they do notnecessarily want to escalate tensions with Iran. Much attention is focused on how theincoming Biden administration, which has pledged to return to the Iranian nuclear agreement(Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action [JCPOA]), will move forward the negotiations with
Iran and the Gulf countries.
The third trend, related to the previous one, is the change in relations with Middle Easterncountries brought about by the Trump administration's Middle East diplomacy. As discussed
above, the Trump administration's most important mission in its diplomacy with the Middle
East is to force Iran to abandon its nuclear development and weapons development. With aNovember presidential election on the way in 2020, the administration attempted to achieve
tangible results by coming out with a series of Middle East peace measures that took into
account the desires of Israel and Christian evangelicals, who are the foundation of Trump's
domestic support. In January, Trump proposed a new Middle East peace plan called "the Dealof the Century" that would refuse the return of Palestinian refugees, annex parts of the WestBank to Israel, and establish an unarmed Palestinian state. This overwhelmingly pro-Israelplan was received with delight by Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel, who has a hardline
stance toward Iran. Through U.S. mediation in August, September, October, and December,the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco agreed to normalize diplomatic
relations with Israel. The fundamental principle of Arab countries other than Egypt andJordan, which have already signed the peace treaties with Israel, has long been to normalize
diplomatic relations with Israel on the condition that a Palestinian state be established (theArab Peace Initiative). As such, the decision made by those four countries resulted in a fierce
backlash from Palestine. Meanwhile, the United States and Israel touted the normalizationagreements as historic steps forward in Middle East peace and emphasized that their allianceagainst Iran had been strengthened. However, criticism and opposition from major Arabcountries has remained restrained, and the successive normalization of diplomatic relations
has deepened Palestine's isolation even in the Arab world, forcing it to resume peace
negotiations with Israel. Although the incoming Biden administration is not likely to be as
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pro-Israel as the Trump administration was, it has made it clear that it will continue policies
that ensure Israel's security and is unlikely to change its position on Jerusalem's status as
Israel's capital or the normalization of diplomatic relations with Arab countries. The new
Israel–Arab relationship, which was established under efforts by the United States to isolate
Iran, will likely pose two challenges to the incoming Biden administration. First is thequestion of how to proceed with relations with Israel, which wants the hardline approach
toward Iran to continue, and relations with the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, which do
not want escalation. The other is the question of whether the two-state solution to thePalestinian problem can be promoted again.
Finally, we discuss Japan's approach to the situation in the Middle East. For Japan, which
imports energy resources from Middle Eastern countries, the stability of the Persian Gulf
region in particular is of vital interest. In light of this, then-Prime Minister Abe visited Saudi
Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman in January 2020 with the goal of easing U.S.–
Iran tensions. All sides confirmed the need to avoid further escalation and Abe gained
acknowledgment regarding the dispatch of the Self-Defense Force to the Strait of Hormuz toensure the navigational safety of vessels with connection to Japan. Japan is a country that has
maintained friendly relations with both Arab countries and Iran. It has traditionally cultivateda good relationship with Iran in particular, and Prime Minister Abe's June 2019 visit to Iran—the first by a Japanese prime minister since the 1979 Iranian Revolution—was highly praisedby Iran. While there is debate over whether the Abe administration's diplomacy as anintermediary produced results, the administration has been praised for acting to protect thestability of the Strait of Hormuz, which is in the global interest. These sound actions will sow
the soil in which the fruits of Japan's diplomacy in the Middle East can grow. In that sense,
Japan's diplomatic efforts to resolve the Palestinian problem must continue in the future.
While the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab countries has been
described as the demise of the two-state solution, Japan has not changed its position in
support of the two-state solution. The Middle East peace diplomacy necessary for Japan is tomaintain good relations with both Palestine and Israel by continuing to provide economic
and humanitarian aid to Palestine while also advancing investment and trading with Israel,
as well as encouraging the UN and Western countries that mediate peace negotiations to makeinternational efforts toward establishing a Palestinian state.

2. Trends to Watch(A) Iran: Between a rock and a hard place in both domestic and international politics due to4

Middle East Institute of Japan, Middle East Analysis Report, 01/13/2020, No. R20-12

harsh sanctions from the United States and the spread of COVID-19 infections
There is continued tension between the United States and Iran, which kicked off with theJanuary 3 killing of Soleimani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force. In addition to theUnited States imposing harsh sanctions under the banner of "maximum pressure" after
unilaterally withdrawing from the JCPOA, Iran is also facing fiscal strain as COVID-19
spreads unabated. Furthermore, the United States has unilaterally declared a snapback (reimposition of UN sanctions) in September and strengthened its own sanctions; it also
continues to take hardline policies against Iran by, for example, calling for an extension of
the arms embargo. However, few countries were sympathetic, throwing into sharp relief theisolation of the United States internationally. Meanwhile, on the domestic front, theconservative hardliners who overwhelmingly increased their seats in the February
parliamentary elections are gaining ground, and the results of the 2021 presidential election
will be closely watched. In terms of national security, unrest has continued following a seriesof unexplained explosions where the involvement of outside actors was suspected, including
the explosion at the Natanz Nuclear Plant (July 2).
Amid these circumstances, Iran has declared the unlimited elimination of uranium
enrichment stipulated in the JCPOA, and the focus is on whether the next U.S. administration
will return to the JCPOA.
(B) Middle East Peace: Normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Arabcountries is underway
There has been a structural change in Arab-Israeli relations, with some Arab countries (theUnited Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco) agreeing to normalize diplomatic
relations with Israel. However, such moderate Arab countries that support the progress of
Middle East peace negotiations have been building informal economic relations with Israel
since the 1990s, and their agreement can be understood as simply the formalization of thisrelationship. The Trump administration, which mediated the normalization, has touted that itachieved Middle East peace where previous U.S. administrations have failed. The
administration argued that Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco
have contributed to peace and stability in the Middle East by promoting cooperation in areas
like trade, investment, tourism, and healthcare, choosing practical and economic benefits
over achievement of an independent Palestinian state, which is actually hard to achieve.
Meanwhile, Palestine, another party affected by the Middle East peace process,condemned the normalization. Palestine called the new Middle East peace frameworkcontrary to UN Security Council Resolution 242 and the Arab Peace Initiative. However,5Middle East Institute of Japan, Middle East Analysis Report, 01/13/2020, No. R20-12

President Abbas has stated that he is ready to resume negotiations with Israel. The incoming
Biden administration in the United States has not announced a clear position on the Middle
East peace problem. People are closely observing the administration to see whether it will
carry-on the normalization of diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab countries createdby the Trump administration and what framework it will use to broker Israel–Palestine peace
negotiations.
(C) Turkey: A fluid situation
Three keywords come to mind when looking back on the situation in Turkey in 2020: (1)
COVID-19, (2) natural resources, and (3) the economy. (1) Since the first case of COVID19 was confirmed on March 11, the disease has spread explosively, with the number of
infections per day exceeding 5,000 on some days until April. The government has
implemented measures to control the spread of the disease immediately after the first casewas confirmed, and the situation remained relatively calm from May on. On September 30,
Health Minister Dr. Koca shocked the nation and the world by revealing that since July,government announcements regarding COVID-19 cases had been based on the number ofcases reported rather than the number of people infected. The number of newly infected
people surged in November and the government decided to tighten regulations to address this"second wave," but by the end of November, the number of newly infected people has
exceeded 30,000 per day.
(2) Although Turkey signed a memorandum with Libya in November 2019, conflicts—
with neighboring country Greece and the European Union as well as Middle Easterncountries such as Egypt and Israel, over Turkey's exclusive economic zone for developmentof East Mediterranean natural gas resources—have intensified. In particular, the situation
with Greece is tense due to Turkey dispatching research ships including a warship in the area,
but Turkey has maintained its self-assured stance. The government also announced that it
discovered a large natural gas field in a survey conducted in the Black Sea coastal area, anddrilling operations began there in October.
(3) Turkey's economy is currently in serious trouble. The decline of the Turkish lira (lira)has been particularly severe, which is a major blow to both foreign investments and the livesof citizens. The lira market is directly affected by the situation in and outside Turkey as wellas the situation in the region. Since the start of 2020, the lira has fallen 25% against the yen
and about 30% against the dollar. The Erdogan administration has consistently opposed rate
hikes to counteract the falling lira, and the governor of the central bank has appointed people
who are in favor of the administration's approach. However, on November 7, the president
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dismissed central bank governor Murat Uysal and replaced him with Naci Agbal, stating thatthe measures undertaken to address the declining currency had not been effective.
Immediately after the appointment was announced, the Minister of Finance and Treasury
Berat Albayrak suddenly declared his resignation on social media. There are also whispersof discord between President Erdogan and Albayrak, who is the president's son-in-law, andthis is expected to affect the future direction of the Turkish economy.
(D) Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): The Structure of trilateral conflict + Isral that affects
the security environment
In the Middle East today, it is fair to say that there is an established and tangible trilateral
conflict between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey. Accordingly, the countries of the GCC haveadopted three positions: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, which are"anti-Iran and Turkey"; Qatar, which maintains a neutral stance toward Iran and strong
relations with Turkey; and Kuwait and Oman, which pursue a cautious neutrality or lowprofile diplomacy. In 2020, relations with Israel took up a new position in this structure ofconflict. Thus far, the countries of the GCC have maintained their position as passive
mediators of peace in the Middle East by supporting the Palestinians through financial
contributions while having no formal relation with Israel and avoiding a hostile relationship.
The announcements that the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain would normalize diplomatic
relations with Israel in August and September, respectively, were seen as disruptions to thisequilibrium, and attention has turned toward other developments in Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
Kuwait, and Oman. Establishing diplomatic relations with Israel is attractive as a frontier of
economic diplomacy for countries that want to escape the double burden of economic
stagnation caused by COVID-19 and decline in oil price since March. However, for somecountries, establishing diplomatic relations with Israel does more than just brand them withthe stigma of abandoning the "Arab cause;" it also raises concerns that Israel will try tointervene in their own security policies. As such, some countries have taken after the United
Arab Emirates and Bahrain in maintaining a cautious stance.
(E) Syria: Continued fighting in Idlib and serious economic deterioration
The Syrian government expanded the area under its control in 2019, and the balance ofpower in the Syrian civil war remained in the government's favor in 2020. An Islamic
extremist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish military control thenorthwestern part of the country, and Kurdish forces (Rojava) control the northeastern part,while the remaining territory is controlled by the Syrian government. Russia, which supports
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government forces, and Turkey, which supports HTS, signed a ceasefire agreement in Marchin the northwestern province of Idlib. However, the fighting is still ongoing in Idlib. The
Islamic State continues to fight against Kurdish and government forces, primarily along the
Euphrates River in the Deir ez-Zor Governorate.
Meanwhile, the economy has deteriorated further. In June, the Trump administration
invoked the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act to sanction people and groups that militarily
and economically supported the Assad regime or were involved in reconstruction projects in
Syria. Additional sanctions have also been applied subsequently. The sanctions have caused
the Syrian pound to plummet and prices to rise, further harming the lives of Syrian citizens.
The spread of COVID-19 is also a major concern. Medical infrastructures have been
destroyed by the civil war, leading to insufficient testing and treatment. On top of this, citizens
living in poverty cannot even receive testing and treatment. As of the end of November, thetotal number of people infected was over 30,000, with approximately 400 people infected perday, although the actual number is thought to be even higher.
(F) Afghanistan: As U.S. troops steadily withdraw, peace negotiations begin
Amid growing consensus that a military resolution would be difficult, the United States
and the Taliban signed the Doha Agreement on February 29. Under the aforementioned
agreement, the United States will withdraw all of its forces from Afghanistan within 14
months from the date of the agreement, while the Taliban will not allow Al-Qaeda and otherforeign terrorist organizations to use Afghanistan's territory. After the release of prisoners byboth sides, direct peace negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban began
on September 12. However, the Taliban continued an intense military offensive, aggravating
the security situation within Afghanistan. The Taliban also made no concessions regarding aceasefire, and the talks made no substantive progress.
In such uncertain circumstances, the question is whether the weak Afghan government,
which is losing the backing of the United States, will be able to negotiate on equal terms with
the Taliban in the future.
(G) Islamic extremism: An overall decline with lingering threatsContinuing the trends of 2019, the influence and operational capabilities of various Islamic
extremist factions are on the wane. Both the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda are releasing fewer
statements claiming responsibility for the attacks, and the statements they do send out are
simpler. As for the Islamic State, most of its military operations are small operations using
improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and the number of martyrdom operations (suicide8Middle East Institute of Japan, Middle East Analysis Report, 01/13/2020, No. R20-12

bombings), which were frequent during the group's heyday in 2015–2016, has drasticallydecreased.
Amid this decrease in influence and military operations, the large number of military
operations in sub-Saharan African countries and Afghanistan stands out. In these countries,
where the capacity of the state to govern is extremely weak, there have been many cases ofIslamic extremist groups achieving significant results by attacking security authorities andprisons. The Islamic State and Al-Qaeda have also made a point of publicizing their successes
in these countries, using them as evidence to demonstrate their military capabilities.
Despite a noticeable decline in the influence of these groups, the rehashing of prophet
caricatures in France and President Macron's comments about the "freedom to blaspheme"
have angered the Muslim world and led to killings by extremist supporters in France andAustria. This suggests that even if the physical military capabilities of extremists havestagnated, there is still a lingering possibility of crimes based on extremist ideology as longas extremist ideas remain on the Internet and have supporters.
(H) Iraq: No prospect of improvement in the domestic security situation despite theinauguration of a new government
Amid the spread of antigovernment protests from October 2019 on, the United Statesstated on January 2 that it had killed the following two people with bombings in Baghdad:
Soleimani, the commander of Iran's IRGC Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, theleader of the Shia paramilitary force Kata'ib Hezbollah. As a result, Iraq served as the stage
for mounting tensions between Iran and the United States. Anti-government protests became
so intense that many people were killed or injured, and the security situation in the country
continued to deteriorate in terms of problems both inside and outside of the border. Mustafa
al-Kadhimi took office as the Prime Minister of Iraq in May, filling a position that had been
empty for about six months. Since then, the Iraqi government has continued to engage inhigh-level exchanges to strengthen formally its relations with both Iran and the United States.
As a result, the United States declared in August that it would completely withdraw its troops
from Iraq by the end of 2020 and, if this is achieved, it is expected to ease the tension between
Iran and the United States to a certain extent. However, since that August, Turkey's military
operations in the northern parts of Kurdistan have become more active. In this regard,
although attempts have been made to improve the relation between Iraq and Turkey—suchas Prime Minister Kadhimi's December visit to Turkey—the northern region of Iraq remains
a source of instability. In addition, since October, major protests commemorating the firstanniversary of the anti-government protests have once again broken out in various Iraqi cities,
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and as security within Iraq deteriorates due to both internal and external causes, there is noprospect of improvement. Furthermore, although the increase in the number of COVID-19
cases and deaths has remained high since the second half of the year, the government does
not have resources to devote to addressing this crisis.
(I) Yemen: Although the structure of the Civil War is changing, the spread of COVID-19 issevereSince 2017, the civil war in Yemen has been a three-way struggle between the Saudibacked interim government, the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is reportedly
backed by the United Arab Emirates, and the armed group Ansar Allah, commonly known as
the Houthis. In 2019, with mediation from Saudi Arabia, the interim government and the STC
signed the Riyadh Agreement, which aimed to establish a ceasefire and joint governance. In
2020, the two forces held discussions based on this agreement. Following this, it wasannounced in December that preparations had been made to establish a unified government
between the interim government and the STC, and 24 ministers took the oath of office in
Saudi Arabia. However, the establishment of a unified government has also become a new
flashpoint in the war in Yemen. For example, a massive bombing took place on the groundsof Aden International Airport, just after the ministers arrived in southern Yemen on the 30th.
On top of this, after the announcements in August and September that the United ArabEmirates and Bahrain have agreed to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel, there were
scattered protests primarily involving students in the Ansar Allah-controlled Al Hudaydah
Governorate. Ansar Allah must maintain its hostile stance toward neighboring Arab countries
in order to hold onto the area it controls, and the group is in a situation that forces it to keep
fighting against the unified government and Saudi Arabia. In terms of COVID-19, despite alow number of infections and deaths, there are concerns about the explosive spread of
infections due to weak medical and sanitation infrastructure, and the death rate for infected
people is reported to be extremely high at about 29% as of November 6.
(J) Libya: A ceasefire agreement and full resumption of oil exports
As the civil war rages on between the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord(GNA) and the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Khalifa Haftar, the LNA has been
blockading oil facilities in the east since January of last year in a bid to increase pressure on
the GNA, resulting in the suspension of oil exports from the oil crescent. The economy is ina state of exhaustion due to the long civil war, and the financial situation has deteriorated
significantly due to the loss of oil revenues, an important source of foreign currency. There
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have also been frequent protests in various parts of the country to voice socioeconomic
dissatisfaction. In response, the GNA, which had gained the upper hand in the war, took
action to resume crude oil exports and establish a ceasefire, reaching agreements with Haftar's
forces in September and October. Crude oil exports have fully resumed and oil production is
on the rise. However, there has been no progress on the issue of who controls oil revenues,
which has been a major point of contention. Depending on what the GNA does, Haftar is
expected to once again take steps to obstruct exports.
(K) Algeria: A national referendum on constitutional changes has been approved
A national referendum on whether to change the Constitution was held on November 1.
This constitutional amendment was a campaign pledge made during the presidential election
last December, and a committee of experts established in January of last year prepared a draft
amendment based on discussions with political parties and citizen groups. Noteworthy
amendments include banning the election of parliament members to a third term and allowing
the deployment of the military overseas. However, almost no amendments changed thedivision of power or reduced presidential power; the Tebboune administration merely staged
political reform. Many citizens were also left cold by the amendments, and voter turnout wasat an all-time low of approximately 23%. Anti-government forces, including opposition
parties and citizen groups, have challenged the legitimacy of the Tebboune administration,and there are ongoing protests in the Kabylia region, leaving little expectation that thepolitical upheaval will be resolved.
(End)11