COVID-19 and Urban Density（Economy and Society Study Group Commentary No.13）
Toyoda Nao
Junior Associate Professor
Department of Economics, Kanto Gakuin University

1. Infectious Diseases and Social Distance
The Novel Coronavirus (hereafter referred to as COVID-19) continues to have an enormous impact
on the socioeconomics both in Japan and in countries around the world. As of December 23, 2022,
the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide was approximately 652 million, and in Japanthe figure was approximately 28 million. In the first wave in 2020, the proportion of those infected
was high among those aged 70 and over, but since then it has been declining due to progress invaccination and other measures (National Institute of Infectious Diseases (2022)). After the second
wave, the ratio of infected persons was high among young people in their teens to thirties, and thesixth wave in 2021 showed a relative increase in the age group of 19 years and younger, who werenot eligible for vaccination. Although there is an impression that more people are infected in thesenior age group because hospitals and elderly care facilities were often reported as the location ofcluster outbreaks, the cumulative number of reported cases from late March 2020 to mid-June 2022shows that infection is more common among the younger generation who are socially active (seefigure).
In the period between the first confirmation of infection and the present, avoiding the threedensities(dense,close,andFigure: Number of reported cases of novel coronavirus
enclosed), called the “3 Cs” inJapanese: “crowded, close, andclosed,” in public spaces such as
offices,schools,theaters,
supermarkets, and railroads, as well
as facilitating ventilation, hasbecome the new routine. Compared
to before COVID-19, it seems thatpeople are always conscious of
avoiding crowds and maintaining
social distance from other people.

infection by age (cumulative)

Source: based on National Institute of Infectious Diseases (2022)

1

2. Relationship between Cities and COVID-19
Particularly in the early stages of the COVID-19 outbreak, it was feared that the characteristics oflarge cities, where there are many opportunities for human contact, could be a factor in causing apandemic, and the view that cities were vulnerable to unknown infectious diseases grew. Larger cities
with larger populations were considered to be higher risk locations, and the need to rethink the natureof cities in the post-COVID-19 era has actively been noted, both domestically and internationally.
In fact, under the first emergency declaration, many companies accelerated the introduction oftelework and remote work, and interest in migration from the Tokyo area to regional areas has
increased compared to the pre-COVID-19 period (Cabinet Office (2022)). Katz (2020) also notes that
the Zoom meeting and remote work are becoming more commonplace in a society where remote
work has become the new normal. Katz (2020) also expressed the view that reverse urbanization may
be possible in a society where Zoom conferencing and remote work have become the new normal.
On the other hand, as the analysis controlling for factors other than population have progressed,
there is a growing consensus that the concentration of urban functions and population density are notfactors that influence the spread of infection. For example, Hamidi, S. et al. (2020) analyzed theimpact of COVID-19 in the United States and found no significant positive effect of population
density on infection rates. In addition, he points out that the more urban functions are concentrated in
an area, the better the environment for access to medical services is secured, which is a factor that has
a statistically significant effect on reducing the mortality rate. OECD (2020) also found norelationship between COVID-19 infection and urban population density, and Florida (2020) predicts
that urbanization will continue to outpace infectious diseases, given cities’ history of being epicentersof infectious diseases and then growing back.
Recently, some have suggested that it is desirable to fully utilize information technology anddecentralize urban functions so as to reduce population density. However, in Japan, which faces adeclining population in the medium- to long-term under severe fiscal conditions, a decentralized, lowdensity urban structure is not a realistic option, and it is more reasonable to consider measures toincrease resilience to infectious diseases in a way that does not cause a loss of urban characteristics.

3. Concepts of Urban Resilience and Density
Until now, cities have been regarded as hubs of knowledge and information brought about by humancontact and as places for educational and cultural exchange, which in turn have been regarded as thedriving force of economic growth. In a previous study, Inoue et al. (2017) argue that ICT has notsurpassed the advantages of geographic concentration, and that the proximity of a location thatenables face to face interaction is important for innovation. This suggests that even with thedevelopment of IT technologies such as the Internet, it will be difficult to completely replace thecharacteristics of cities, and it will be desirable to maintain the characteristics of cities where people
and industries are concentrated in the post-COVID-19 society.
2The author and others have discussed urban density based on population per square kilometerand focused on the possibility of a pandemic occurring when COVID-19 is combined with highpopulation density. However, over time, the view has emerged that the problem is not agglomeration
but overcrowding and density (Hamidi, S. et al. (2020) and Yahagi (2020)). To give one example,
Citizens Housing & Planning Council (2020) presents the necessity of classifying spaces into four
specific types, such as residential space and public space, and capturing urban density from each ofthese perspectives, rather than the conventional population density.
In the future, to improve the resilience of cities to infectious diseases, it is necessary to consider
the appropriate density of cities from two perspectives: the structural functional concentration of cities,
as typified by compact cities, and the way of using space to avoid overcrowding and density causedby the people involved in a particular space as described by the Citizens Housing & Planning Council(2020).

ReferencesCabinet Office (2022). “Fifth Survey on Changes in Lifestyle Attitudes and Behaviors under theInfluence of the New Type of Coronavirus Infection,” (in Japanese) Cabinet Office.
https://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai2/wellbeing/covid/index.html (viewed January 5, 2023).
Citizens Housing & Planning Council (2020). “Density & COVID-19 in New York City,” May
2020.
Florida, Richard (2020). “Cities Will Survive the Coronavirus,” How Life in Our Cities Will Look
After the Coronavirus Pandemic, UNHABITAT, https://unhabitat.org/news/04-may-2020/howlife-in-our-cities-will-look-after-the- coronavirus-pandemic (viewed January 20, 2023).
Hamidi, S., Sabouri, S., and Ewing, W. (2020). “Does density aggravate the COVID-19 pandemic?
Early findings and lessons for planners,” Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol.
86, No. 4, 495-509.
Inoue, Hiroyasu, Nakajima, Kentaro, and Saito, Yukiko (2017). “The Impact of the Opening ofHigh-Speed Rail on Innovation,” RIETI Discussion Paper Series 17-E-034,1-17.
Katz, Rebecca (2020). “Cities Will Excel at Disease Prevention and Response,” How Life in OurCities Will Look After the Coronavirus Pandemic, UNHABITAT, https://unhabitat.org/news/04may-2020/how-life-in-our-cities-will-look-after-the-coronavirus-pandemic (viewed January 20,2023).
Nakagawa, Masayuki (2020). “Telework: Influencing the Future of Cities: Population
Agglomeration and Infectious Disease Risk,” Keizai Kyoshitsu, (in Japanese) Nihon Keizai
Shimbun, July 9, 2020 morning edition.
National Institute of Infectious Diseases (2022). “Epidemiological study of gender and age
characteristics of each epidemic wave of novel coronavirus infection in Japan,” (in Japanese)
IASR Vol. 43, 273-275, December 2022.
3

OECD (2020). OECD Policy Responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19), “Cities policy responses,”
OECD, July 23, 2020.
Yahagi, H., D. Abe, K. Hattori, G. Cottera, and M. Borzoni (2020). Will Cities Change with
COVID-19? Reports from Europe and America, (in Japanese) Gakugei Shuppansha.

4