THE FIRSTGLOBAL>REVOLUTIONA REPORT BY THE COUNCIL OF THE CLUB OF ROMEI

ALEXANDER KINGC

BERTRAND SCHNEIDER [G^Jpyl;y^1T0d n>3k:iirJi

THE FIRSTGLOBALREVOLUTION
A Report by the Council of the Club of RomeALEXANDER KINGBERTRAND SCHNEIDER

Orient Longman

Contents

T^V^kAtil^minhHi

xUI
1

Part r. TTic ProbJcmatique

2,

AWhldwtndofChuiBC
Sonw Arta^ of AcuK Concern

J2

1,

The InwmaDonai Mlsnuiugcmcni of the World Economy

50

4.

[ntJiTutJons of Solidarity«l5.

The VKuum

6S

6.

The Humdn Malai&c

76

!.

7

The Challenge

Pan n. The Resolutiquc[nffoductton

H

7.

The Three [mmedlaci«tS&.

Governance and the Capacity to Govern

IM

9,Agents of the EteajlutiqiKr

1»1

ID.

Modvdtlons and ValuesleLcainrng oui Way into a New Era

1J4

A Call For Solidarity.

lndci

Itf

Copyrighted materialAh k)vel Could lh«j and wl* lite conspire,I

roBraspihlssorry BctKHK of things enUre,
would ftQt wfl ihiaw iX fo biti and iPih1(
rerrculd EI filacer to the fiean'? desJrs?

Edward ftoGeraM
Ttv Ratoiyst ofOrmr Khjyyim

Foreword
196$ wjn the ytit of the Gicat Divide, [t m^rkrd Eh? zcnldi

u well a the endof the long post war pcfiod of rapid economic growth In the Indu^rallwd

counmes. Bui n wis also a ycir of social unresl. wi^h the eruption of smdent
uprising inmany counnies and othermanifestations of dlirnanon andGaunter cultunl protest. En addition. IT was at that time that general and voul

pubhcawuenessof the problems of the enviionment began lo emcrger

A number of individuals dose to decisionmaking points becafnc
concerned jboui

dieappaieni

mc^pabiliiyofgovemmencs dnd die

IntesmtKmaJ OTganlations of foreseeing, or even aoemptlng eo Ebrc$ee, cbc

consequences of SLibs-tannal material grow^ withoi^t sufficient thought as tothe quality aspects cj the lite that unprcccdcmcd general afflueiKc shouldmake possible it was fell ihat a group of tndependeni ihmkers fonteriwd
with the long lermandde^^r issues would be useful m complementing the
woikof^die bigger organlTadcins.

The Club of Rome tookshape that year from ihcse«msTderattons, and was
touodedby AurelioPecceL and Alexander King at the Academ La del LmceiJnRome. It chose as its Inidal dicme. 'The Pcedkamenr of Mankind Autdio
Peccel wu Its first president, a post be retained nil his deadi In 19S4. At
pre&ent, the group comprises one hundred independent individuals from'The Club ha absolutely no polttlcaL ambttkm. Its
mcmbcts teprcsenr a wide dlverBlcyrf cuWes, Ideulogle*, iHcJcHlons a«lfiftf diree countiles.

dhcipline^p and 3ie united Inicommonconceni for [he fuiuK of humuilcy.

From die outset, the Club s ihinklog has been governed by three related
conceptual guidelines:

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd irrateriaal

• Fortwoni

viii—adoptingina gTobs! approach lo the vast and compler prob^tmsof j worfd,

which inrcrdcpcndcncc beiwccn wtiom wiihin a single pbncury— focussing on
Isissues, pfJldcsandopdonsinalongcrtcrni pecspcfilvc thanpossible (or govemmenb, which respond to the Immediaic concctni ofan IftwfBdeflcly Irtiormed consOtiiency;— &ecktng i deeper undeisondlng of thecontcmporajy

problems - pollticj],

Lni:er^c[ionseconomic,

4itbln ihe tangle ofsoda],

culoiial,

psychological, redinologicil and environmental - for whkdi die Club ofRome adopted ihe lerm 'ihe vjocid piablcmaTique',
The woild problcmjiiquc hjs become, a^ n were, die [radcmark of theClub. We define It as die missive and unOdy mil of InietteJaied d|^ii]Ue5
and ptoblems That fotm the predicament In which humanity ftnds toelf. For
our present purposes we have coined a OTtrespoi>dlng icnn,

the world

resoludque', whjch connotes a coherent, onnpreftenslve and simuluneom

atock to tcwlvc

asa possible of the t^ivtTK clfmrnts of thetinnypfoblcmadquc, 01 at lean to point out ways to ^oJutEcms and more effective
snaiegles. By 'the rewlmkjiic',

we do not mggest a grand attack on the loialicyof the probleniacfque- Cue pnjpoat te rather a simultaneous a ruck on iu mamelements with, Ineverycase, taiefukonsiderattonof reciptocal impact fromeach of the others. Jn a woildinwhich pioblem- solving mitucive& ate

tncreasingly immobilized by buteauciades, there is a growing role for flexibic

2nd Itifbrmal groups mch as the Club of Etomc.

Oui first puhlflcailDn, Tfa Lhttib Sa Cnuri. appeared In 1OT2 3^ i rcpoit to(radier than i^) the Club of Rome. The study, commissioned by the Club, wa&
accomplished by an imematlon^l icam of professors and researchers at MlTu^g the system dynamics methodoiogy erf jay Fottcsta, This was aploneeting atlempi to pioiect

m interaction a number of quandflable

cicmcntsof the probletnatiquc. The icpon and the toEEravcrsy rt gcEemedin^mediately gav« the Club of Rome wotldwjdc visibility or, ts $omc wouldjav, notoriety. It cheicby achieved Its main objective: thesnmulatlonofagreat

debate on growth and sodety tluougbout the world and an in^ieased

awareness of the InreracQom thac ake place between the elements of thefffoblematique. The report has sold some ten million copies in over dUrty

languages and has had consldeiable political impact. The Club was widely

oidclzed foi what was ^en as advocacy of a zero growth economy. This wasneverounntenDon. We fully accepted the pte^smg needfoi m^tetjal groitth
inthepoor countries of the world, but warned readeis about theconsequences of an unthinking pursuit of growih by the indusolaJlzed
countries, depletion of theworld resource base, deterioration of theAuteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

Fotrwrd • ix
environment, and ihe domtnation cJ mawrtsl valun 3n society.
Since 1972, die Club hds published eighteen reports on 3 wide varieiy ofloues (sec Kb^iogTjf^y), The second dmangthcBCrM4>iibiiiJtUiruTirpnj"gP0liit

by prokuon Festel and Mcsan>vlc, wasi compULntsed grawih model which
jlso look teglcnu] slcaabcms ItKo Accoum, It included jsLrongwarnrng of thehigh costs in terms of money and human sufTeTing whtch would r«ul! fromdelays In laklng acdon.

Two decided bter. the contempoiaty pIobTr^tnattque icirulns die ame in
JtsundetlyirLgcaus?^ as ttiat of 1971» but diHcis In ICE mix of Issues and tis pointy

otcznphasls^ Humanity will ^dways hive to live with the problems of Its tJme,

no matter how cffccOvc the i«oluc<iuc h^s bcai in the psst Changing
jrtuadons.nowblylhoicanimghamlhrioluuonofpistprobicmipgivcrisclo
new/ difficulties which, a? always. Interact, furthermore, in Gnvs of rapkd

change such as the pieseni, the mix of problems^

the understanding of

theij relative importance is llkdy to change rapidly. This is p^rdy becausesome of QUI pcrccp<k)ns have become clearer ^nd partly because newknowledge has Identified new dangerSr Of course, the two most domtnanc
elements are probably those of the population explosion In the South and ofdie onlyiecendy recognized mxioeffcctsofman on his cnvironn:Knc, whichwere exicdy the two central pteoccugatiun^ in Tfif Umili Nj CmiiA, Bui newfactors, such as changes in human behavioui, the emergence of secmlngJy
Irrational movements Including tcnorlsm, and the giowdi of Individual tnd

collective selfishness, thrown up by our materialistic society, have definitely

become elements of today's ptoblerrjcigue. Such matters jtc obviously
relevant when considering the present situation.

The human being both creates die problcmatEque and suffers ii3
consequenccs^ The problemaiique therefore demands a systematic anal^lsihar pays due attention not only to what is regarded as rational bchavtour but
dUo to JnniiKdvc and apparcndy InadonaL elements Itibcrcnc in human,nattire that rnake for an uncertain world.
If the Club IS to live up toItstole, it Is cssenitial diat

were examine theproblemaoq-ue, attempt to elucidate more clearly some of Its interacdons, andIssuewamlE^gs abotil the consequences and trends determined by thepersistence of present economic systems and hunun bch^vjour.

With thepossible exception of the nuclear threat, the present dangers to hum^ity areprobably greater and mote Imminent than those in 1972. We shall, no doubt,

be accused ^ before nf being hjrbinge r^ of doom This may well be out lolc
and our glory. However,piophesyingdoomisby no means our sole or even.

main Lniention. It is but a necessary prelude to taking action so as Co avoid the

doom confronting the earth's inhabitants. T& Uib^B fc Gnm'rfi was neverAuteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

intended w 3 p^o^hrxy. but aather u 3 wanring of what might haf^^o if
poildes were noc changed ^In order lo prove its eiTiapohGom wroi^J A

pre uencvc afi^oach SMdti a this oirjcs with & ihc rcspoHlbllilf of puEdng[onvaid suggested recnedlcs.
Ricardo Did HochleitncT
Prcs^dcnin CJub ol RointWo generation has ever llkFdl»propr»T^le«f of air those who polnrout [he conseqjerces of bad judvement and lack of Fomlghl.

Th? Club of RorT« ^^n ake prld« li Th? fia rhii It hj; te?n iinpocHjUri tat» K will mndnme For m^ny yf^n to
COCK ro spell oui The unpafaubk fans md to ununle ^he ^Diisdence
ol the siTUi dud Uie tfttheOc.
Prince- PhiriPn Duke of Edlnbureh

Ax thtf bsT iwmiv yevSv

Meiisgp so the dek^^tes at site
Tweniifth Amtvcrsary Confereine of the OubofRome,WfuhriiJJ(i|iia% [|£cb I^n^ Pjulci^ Bijnk. ^ch^rd Carty nd Alexander

Pckham /it rAnr^AdrpupT'^arMlirndfnfr^^nrifcaunifF, Soyo Graham ^Stiurt. Nicok
Ro&cnsohnflii^Mdrin^lTTquidJ /«UTOF£n[runfi,dmf,niggrtrJo>fiffrrdirriiiig™ppffrt«
i»n « Kabicnnt Eoii[on far far unm^q^ ^l)ni« dunn^ the cmpontion of Uia

W.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd irrateriaal

Abbreviations

ASEAN
CFC
CGIAR

FAO
HT
GATT

AssociiEion of South Easi AsiJUk NaOons

chlorofluoroarbotiE

ComulQUvc Croup of Instituus of Agiiculiuial Et?&carch
Food and Agriculture OrgMiiation \of UN)
Foundation lor Incec nation jI Tnlnlng
Cencial Agreement o^ TarifB and TradeHIVhumin immuno deBckcncy vtrus

llASA

Iniernailanal Insticuie hi Applied Sysr^nif Analysis

ILO

Inlf rnalianal Labour Org^niz^Cion

IMF

InKinadOOal Moucury Fund

IPT

Irt^tnadonil Pumeiship [Diliaave

Mil

MasachuKtu Institute of TechnobgyNGO

non-governmenlil organiatkm

MJC

ODA

iKwIy lEtdusQlallzcd cuuntiyoflldal developmcni did

C^CDOrganlTatkin tor &ici»omlc CoopcraGon and Developmoit

START

SitjEpgic Anns Reduction Tilks

lINijrAD

Uniicd Hstlons Conference on Tr^de ^nd Development

UNDP

United Nations Devcbpmcm Programme

UNEP

Unlied NaUoru EnvtiunmenuJ Rrcigc^mnv

Unc&CD

United Nations Educationa]. ScienlifK: andCultunI OrganLsatum

Unkcf

United Naiiora {[nKmauonalf Children's (Emergency) Fund?.

Unldo

Uriltcd N^aons Indusaul Dcv^lopnnfni Orgjnizadon

WHO

World Hcjlrh Organization

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

THE WHEEL OF HUMANKIND'ices

Agnculiure
iT-idusiFfes

GLOBALecONOwig GROWTH
hiew Technologies

Materitfa

GOVERNMEhfT
ANDTHECAPACrrVTO GOVE RNVALUESRELIGIONS

Lumlng
MassMei]ja

Systems

GLOBAL FOOD
SECURrTY
Wdr^r availability

ENVIRONMENT

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Introduction
Hum dukiEtd xzim ui be gripped by i fm it sak ^lu^udc of unt<::akiiy n ihc
ihmhoidaf die nrw century, but the end of a inlllcDlum presents ^n evenmote complex ^itudtioit w)ih its wide^nd and iipjd ch^ngn. ^nd theuncetialnry thit these changci brEng wkh them.

Rome meetlngj has been "The Grcal
Ttamldon'^ i«e ire convinced thdi we ue in die cjriy stages of the iormdUonof J new type of world vxiery which niH be at different from codaf'ip]»w«
thai ushered in by the Industrial Revolution ftom the HXiCTy of dK kmg
jgfjitarkpcriCHJduipEccdcdii Theimual but by no means d^ only mou»
Tbe icspjt

of recent Clubofbeer die emergence of a c]uster of advanced
technologies, espeajlly those made possible by mkroelfcnonks and the newforce of this change has

discoivcrlcs of moJccuLi bkilogy. These ^re creating what \s vjrioiisly caLLrd

die infoEZiutlon sodeiy. the posrlndusUlaJsodeiy, or d>e service sodeiy. In

whJchcmpl[jymfntJlicayTttJndprD5pccD.nia[ctlaland other wise, Will bevery different ftom those of today for every humaa being.

We only need [o mention as examples of change the populadon e^rploslon
in the Southern countriei. the probabiltly of great chjnges and distisrlunce inworld climate, the prccariotH nature of global food secutny, doubts on energy
aviildbiliiy dfl-d ihc v^^i thang;^ caking p\Kzm the geop^Jiu^dl ^Jtudugn -aJlof which Interact within the complex of the pioblcmatlquc.

We aieconvinced thattfie magnitude of these changes amount to a major revolution

on i worldwide fcale.
low and 1900 were year? when the course of hiitory suddenly speeded up:
communist regimes In eastern Europe collapsed. East and Wcsi Germuiy

became a single nanonjgain, the invasion of Kuwait by Iraq in iWO provoked

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

2 • T/x first Ghhitl E^mlutiend

3 dttdly CrialJ Ia ih* Gulf. Though these were by no m-eaiis the only evenu

the periodH cbey ivcre b^

fai

Ihc most specocular. jnd despite theirgeographic dl^^ts^H the^ were tDlaconncctcd, the end of the cold war andof East- West censloii blew the lid off (he world pte^urc cooker, as ii were,and enabled latent conflicts [o emerge tn the open and long- repressed
isplnbons to c:iprr» ihcmselves Forcf tiilly.
In ihc comlr^ ycs}. li Is very llkel? rhar ocbct cwcno will come to the

fotcFront of world acccnrkm, while today's events will be pushed Inio thebackground. This book was wtlCicn bcfoic the collapse of the Soviei Union,

and the creatton In Its place of a loose confederation oiindcpcndenc republics.

The dun^Q ^11 Qkmg place ihcic do noE ilccr whit follows- Indeed, die?
confirm our statement, made In euly 1991 thjc die Gulf Wat Is the firstexample oS a series of phenomena that will jnost cenalnly affect the world,

profoundly In die coming decadn.

The Gulf Wit was In many ways i warning signal atid should lead to a new
vision of IntemaiiDna] tebOons. [[cofifitmed the exIsCCDce of tension, which
will continue to grow between the rich counnles and the poor coudtila,

bcTween die Non^ and the Souths while the Injusnice and humiTi^Elon ic

bPMds is found ^petully JTid Incrrastngly imb«rabTe by (he Arab MasTlm
countrteSr The war has also- been a demonstranon of a new anempt by die
United States to reasserc itf hcgccnonji: pcc^n^rc In a number c^reglc^s of theworld, whfle puidng its force at the service of right and legalism. The
ambLgiiity of American policy, despite the faci that Jt hdS often shown proof of
goodw[ll. IS not going to make die intcmadoc^ rclaOom of the United ^ics

any easier in future,Thcendofthecold warhas led [ the awakening of nadoia]Jsm,th^t had
been sdfled under die lid of East- West tension, and wdl incvttably produce
conflicts of varying degrees. However, it must be stressed that the process of

disarmament that was undertaken between cbc United States and the Soviet
Union tsa positive element- but nocsuffldendy so. Dtsarmameni in high-riskzones aiyj a strict control by the United Nadons of the sales of sophisticatedarms have to be a priority if wc e:i^eci to ^veni otbct conftont^uoins 3^
bloody and paradoxical as thoK in die Gulf War.
Will the budding democrfcy in Benin, as ihai in the £asi European and Latin,

American connrrles grow strong and spread, or will Its failure to do so leadback to audioritarlan governments"' Wfll regimes tliat seem to be firmly
fsabliihcd rod^y be able to stand up lo the pressure of population, themajoiny of the members of which are under twenty years of age anddemznding a roof, a pb and the means to survive? No one knows.

There

ISh

however,one

indisputable

fact:

die

world

ecoiiomic

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Introduaion• 3

dlscrepiDciu, thr flagrant incquallda. (be existence of eKirrme pcTvcrty

sldc'byakk with great *«lth. cause all sofO of wniions and conflicis,
sbowii^ up bete uid there in the mo5t diverse gcog[a[>hic Tonc^ These arc
the$fgn9 that

mark

this

Arst

global TCVolutKtri

and th?^ indiczEe Lheuncertainty with which the hiturcof the pbnct a confronied.

But why do we regard the canccmparary threais and thmgci a the firs
global revolution' The change fcom the hufitrng and gatbermg [Jiase to one of

wtiled farming miy have taken thouands of ycais to spread throughout theworld. The Jndustilal Revolution that bcgjn in the United Kjngdom about

twa centuries ago Ls as yet geographically incompleter However, the present
biutil i^hzngcs arcti]i;ing

ptacc cvftywhftc §imul[ancously from causes

which are likewise ubiquLio-us, thus c^usmg the Sturm und Drang' of auniversal revolution. The worldwide signilicjnce ol this revolution becomes
vastly greater If one considers diat Its misman^emcnc could cndaogei thewhole human race-

The new society i^ emetging from the chrysalis of the ofTcn aicfulc jnd
decadent oldsocieties:ItsevolutionIscomplex and unceruin

^d

its

manlfesiatJons are diEficuit to decipher, making die task^ of the dedskm

makers in both publk and private sectors more ditticuk than ever, andinducing a permanenF gncenalntj In all d^inkrng individuals. Elcmentj or
tran&jtional facets oE the new society ire appearing here and there without

obvious lje& btiween them.

The global tevolutkm has no Ideological basEs, It Is bdng shaped by an
urprcfedented ml laurc of geostta regie upheavals caused by social, economic.
technologic j1, cultural and ethic j] factots

Com bination? of these factors leadto unpredictable situations, in this tran^jtronal peclod. humanity is therefore
EaciEig J double challenge - having to grope its way towards an undecstandingof the new world With Iti many hidden been and also, amidst the mistf t>funceruinty. to l«m "bo* to manage the new world and not be managed by

Our aim must be esientiatly normative -to visualize die sort of world we
woidd bke to live tn, to evaluate the maralal, human and moral resources
available, to make out vlskm realistic and sustainable, and then 10 mot^llie thehuman energy and pollucal will to fbige the new globai society.
[n mattcri of public ajn^erji, aim other areas of human IntcrcsLbshtcns
It.

prevail. Yesterday the nudcai problem wsi uppermost tn people's minds:
later the population cxploskHi reached die headlines; today the environment
Is ab mode and coocem with population has receded. The eneigy crisis was

seldom menuoned publicly carbcT, but the event! tn the Middle East havealready made dils the new preoccupabcm. Ihc ztccd Is to consider all theseas essenual

angles of illuminaCLon in the kaleidoscope of plar:etary change^

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

4 • The First Clotmi ReFoiwum[n thlstanftlc of change itis- important as never bdorctolook beyond (hepressing issues of the momeni lo ihe [orfcs bf yond tbr horizon. Forfliasting isnecessary, tad will nccnsdrlly beaieL^Eive I^iluir. Simple cKiiapolailon ofexisting Trends will not gkve us rcilistJc answcis, Ttit Umlb

developed an Interactive simulabon model

fieldssuch

Giwtf' tud

produced a variety ofmeM for definjng what wis to be^cnirlos which wrre fspfclally
prevented- In some-

thai

ft

k tedmolo^ and industry, long-ietm

foreca^ng j& Indispensable and efioit± In that dliection are being made b;

some of the most forward looking cotporations, which are snuggling ro
Invent new methodologies fo« planning In uoceitalnty.
Inthethinin, dw American president Frinltfin D. Iftxiw^eftcoinmisstonedhlaadmintstrailDrim urtdprukea vast »udy oFth?

tomrnf ledinolr>gle5. When The study wu ptibll^ied El made a v^ry big
lmprts:Skin. Indeed, It was enrtirallinB- There ivas iusi one problern: It
hadnoipmlictKl t^e earning or televFs1on,rKXl'iato'pJasiK, or |eil^lan^, or OJ-gan LranspJa;its, or Easf r beams, not even of baJI-pOinli

pensP
Franz-Ollvier Gnes&ert'

One aspect of the OHiteinporary situation Is an Increasing awareness chatthe human race, Ir pUrSUK of mWCllal gain by ihe expMOtlon of natUTCj Is
racing towards ihe desmiclton of the planet and lOeli. The thiejt of nuclear

descrucQon, although less imminent, is always -with us, and the possibility ofitteverSibledlmabcChange with only djmly foreseeable consequences 15 an

Imminent menace. Such mgredlenis of the present problemanqtie are glotal
in character and cannot be tackled by even the largest powers In Isolation,

Only if all the Inhabltatm of the planet realize that they are hdng Immediate
and common dangers, can a uniTcrul political will be generated for untied;rcthDn to secure die survival cJhumuiiiy. This Is

why wc all fbt die crniionof world solidarity.

The term 'solidarity' hs been greatly misused and seriously devalued. Itsapplication to circumstances in whith motivationj for common belief oi action

were too weak, have gjvenlia^mewhat ucopian

jnd insubsundjl

tgnnoodgn. fnihc pre^cm cicum&t^nce&j however, the exicDt of danger tothe future well being of ^11 the inhabiunts of the planet gives such enhartced

force to the riecessltf for solldarltyn that unity atui stability must plainly begenerated.

m Kqun dv

I.

Tba wa Ihc

1

CWiben, 1990.

LoClub ai Sldidc ^Mcjdoitfi ci ll 1V12}.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

IntmiaKtiim • 5

Wc have volunardy presented a slmpllfio! version oF thlngi; msny of d>cphenomena mcntkmed herein would have to be analysed boih more deeply
and more subtly. This would requite numerom and welfjhtv volumes

Out opticm wis diHeieni. Oui wish was btlcEly - even if supcrEdally andIncompletely - [o hy out elemcna thac may alrexly be known in order toshow how they interact and through thetrertunglciticnt. To ^Eare our OUdook
on the present woild problemaOque as clearly aspossrt^. We do not Intend
to dtaw up a blueprint of conaete actions for the salvjcion of the wo^r
NeuettheLess. OUI analysis of the sltuau-on encourages lu to make a number of

piacflcalpioponh, tosuggcst possible lines of action jnd to IndfciK necessarychanges It^ anttude.

Never before has humanity possessed, a It docs today, the knowledge vkI
the skills, the resources and the cohesion to shape a better world. Th!s^»uld

generate hope In all people. Tet there Is widespread uneasiness and fear of

Impending changes which In implngng on the sQll Incomplete changes ofrecent decades will add lo die unccruinty. This very uncertainty, togcthcc

with the removal of the traditional tesdctloos of the past and the new hopes
for the future provides an enormous Impetus for reshaping the wotid sodetyr

The tragedy of the human condLtion
to realize our potential.

\ithat we have not yet reached a position

We see the world md

itsresources being gio«sLy

mismanaged, yet we are lulled by the complacency of our leaders and ourown Inertia and resistance to change. Time is tunning out. Some problems
have already reached a magnitude which Is beyond the point of successful
eoncrol and the costs of delay are monstrously high. Unlesi we wake up jnd
act quickly It could be too late.

This book. Is organized in two parts. The first deals with the ptobLemanqueand purports to present the main changes of the last two deE:ades,

to describe

the malaise which they have caused and to oudme some of the rmnt Imporaantissuesmd dangers which humanity has to lace unitedly. The second pin

describes the resoluilque and anempt^ to preseiit a numbei of actions which,at this stage, seem specially necessary to pursue. Flrully

we return to theneed to generate world solidarity,

r& FiBl GfaW Rflwiudw

Iswritten for all.thow who have the spark of thecKpJofcr, the discovctCL the tisk oker-tbclcanKr, Ihncarcthepcopie

we shall have to count on to face the appalling Isai-es described herein, to ser
the goals and try to leadi thcnn and to Lear ii fiom their laiiuf C»and successes,
to go on trying - learning.

Finally, It is addressed to those

who ait concerned with die future of theplaner and of humankind, and hc^>es to sharpen thetr cotKem. This book may
also help to awaken concern tn otheis. Above al

Mt is addressed to the young.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

6 • The First Global RfPoiMtitm
so they may assess more coherently the slatf al the world which they hjvc

inheritedfrom eirlier geneiAtion^, md may be inspired to work for theconfiiLKiiioEt of d

new and ^u^raiiublc wcicty. capable of provkflng etjiulJi^

and modest ptospccicy foi iheir children and gK^ncrjoon^ to comeThli li ihe spin! in which we ofEer these ideas dnd proposals foi action, forlejming our wjy into the future.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Parti
The Probhmatiqm

A Whirhvind of Change

1.

iPnurT^,\9m: 71 ^taj old \an PaJLak

Piigiie lupmrfil^ tatn^OH fin tS

Wnur^ ^tftUTt Ina^ml tht anapaiiar\ tf Cuditsiteaiia ^SoUcI Unfa.

Dttmia. im: imiai vntii

V^^ HiMd k tktid Proiieil ff

Iftr

Rt^l^k ofScp^mMr, 7975: iauaacif in Cfiik ti mc^ am^ ij a ^bodi^ m^tfirjj avf [10.000
itai M til TMwlk, fO.Ono arrnltd and ibi.COO fantd int» tnk).

DetnbcT. 1939:?M iicimttaliC fJalion niuf Se^bet. }970 put an oid

iniUlaitr rt^hht in

Cblr.

lo

tHi

rh( nxds of (he coming global rcvolu[ion have been gciminattng $loi#ly

ova many yurs, during which ramplfviLy and unf trtJlniy In condtUorts and[^Id dunge uc beginning lo ovowtwlm lb? apacity of govemniRili jII
over the woild. Indeed, govetnmenc rfcver like change. Wedded lo thesu tus quo, iheyteaci to &ympCDm& of change, but seldonnio the caiu« which
tend to he icgatded witb smplcion is possibly being 'subversive' in ruiure.

One of the [TKAt obvious ispcos oFhumdn Fnlliy Is loo much concentration ondie kmmedlaie, wldi too llnlc caie foi fucuie ODn&cquenc^— m Insbtenceon

immediate giaUhcailon. Thi& applies lo tnstiCuUom a£ well a to people

Covernmei^D operating under the lyianny of the next elecifon Ebcus on che
present Issues md avoid more distant but, frequcndy, more fundamentalr^aneis. CorporaQons, likewise* bow to the tyranny oE next year's bottom
line, aldiough both govemment^ and enterprises do try to lookbeyond chc

next electkin or annual repott in much of what they do.

The Club of Rome was founded in the year IW when the economic
gcowthmanLa was attts height. Soon after the publication ofiis firK report, T^

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

.

8 • The Fim Gicbcd RiPidutnn

hmt U Cwo\k"in 1*72.

ihc world wa^ hit by [htf Oil tt\%\%. Thij had manyrepercu&jons on JEs economy dnd sodety l[ had a strong Impact on the wcirld
investment pttcm and caused many policy modifications as. for example. In;

the iititudc oF the Ujilted Sates to the Middle East, The crisis was a dear

warning to lb?

dependence oF tbeii

industrialized countries about the

cconoTTiicsijn the secure supply olraw rndLCEl^l^ and energy, which in lurt^

was tandls) dependenton events tn distant places which are largely beyond
tbeli control

in Todii/s worid dii curves art

uponenHaMr is only in mathemdlio

tFur nponenriai curves ^jnm to infinity. In rui \\h they either Ixcak

downnt^Birophicdliyorihey uturareirentiy. iris our duly j&ihmkme
people ta ^Trlvt cowjrd^ J genlle ^turanon jithoiigh this pose& Fiew
AT\i very dllTkiuIl quesuons.

Dennis ilabori

The oil cusis brought home to mosi oF the oil-irnportkng developuig
CDuntilcs the e:ttent of their reliance on cheap Fuels, with hdrdiy any local
energy alternative;

it

also

led these countirles into

ejicesstve

ejitemalindebtedness. [;oc»t:nuch[afo^:dcvciopfnir tic, but lopiy [he Oil bill. This
alsis ind other faaois have led to a considerable lowering oF economic

growthrates

fiom the highlevelsof die previous decades- Howevernachievement oF economic growth sQll remains thf main fxplicic [;oa] of

economic policy, with too little considention of diFFerenEial needs and quality
aspects. How far the published growth Figures reFlect real increase Ln huitian
welEire is open to question.

dexample, an econoriy grows dt a\ annual rate
5%, it would,
by the end oT the nvxt century, rvach a level of 500 times greater [or50,000% hlglier] (han [he oirreri 1^^.
EdiHTdl^steP
If, for

Much oF what is counted as growth Xi probably not growth at alL For
example, in the United States oF President Re jgan, growth Figures conceaJed

overconsumption

andpublicunderinvestment.

de[eriorat>on

of

the

InFraslruccure. decay oF the inner cities, and social de^adition. Noils there

any evidence that growth in the North leads in time to developfnent in the
South

1.

?
S

^

M«dowi, vtu.
HdIkI Prljr- wirnci. lEivcnwi of hologriphy ^Cabor. 14?A|
Lower SticnVr brmcE
Foimet Minifier oE Culcuie, Soencc and Tcchnolcigy
membeioE [ht Eyecntivc Commiticr of the Club of Etome ^fWtelr JW),d

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

A WhiriwMdofajan^ • 9
In 106S, few could luvc fote&ccn chc furtdamcnial pollQcal chatigcs vk have

iccrnily witnessed. A^re^d^ the polldc^domiridncie of the two superpowers
wifr beginning la d'^indlc, bui ibc cold wdi not'

only lukd

E^-Wc5i

U also defined die whole InterrutJoiul system, torn ipart by
Ideological poljrization. The recent events In USSR and Eastern Europe have
reUtJon^H

The collipse of
economic communism and tJie disintegration of the Wdjsaw Pki bloc ofnatioiu has aioused gtm hope? -ind is Invested wictj great dan^rs. The
therefore shaken not only the regkin. but thr whole planet

sicuatkinii

cxnemeJy flutd, has few constialncs, and the consolidation ofpresent trends offtts great qtpomjnidrs for [Kr strufturlng^nd renewal of amuch widci icglon- and posdhly d dw world system j& i whole.
History Is unlikely to provide another opportunity as open and promtslngas
today's, and it ts essential forhumanitytofinddicwudom to exploit It. This

unfceeilng of die geopolitical ngidittcs of the last forty-five years Is one, but

only one of thp elements shaping the global revolution. Entangled with manyother forces of changes IE has made the future jhapc of the world still more
uncertain.

Throughout the period since 1968 the world has lived under the shadow of
the nuclear bomb. Howcvcn^tth East and West willing to put an end to thecold war, a r«w climate Is now dawning in knremadonal affalts despite theselbacksrecordedat ihebe^nnlngot 1991. Although nuclear annlhltatlOEi rko
longer seems mmlnen[, [hethreachds cedamly not been banished; Indeed ii
Ijmy exist as long as the planet is pcc^lcd by humans. Great vigilance ises&eniiAL not only wiih re^fd to the intciitioA) and beh^vbur of die present

nuclear powers, hut also to curtail nuclear pnollfcratton and to ensure chatsmall nations now developing nuclear devices are persuaded or prevented

from using them In IcMzal wars agaliutneighbounng stsces. This requires a new
strategy on a global scale, quite dl^renc fiom the bipolar appioach of the cold

war period. Humanity will have to be forever on guard ^galnsi the rise of
Insane leaders with great charisma, capable of hypnc^zing whole nations, andwilling to destroy the world rather than go downin lanuary. 1991,

wjdi the Gulf War,m defeat. Such was the cjse

Who can foretell &k medium - tolong — term coruequcrKes of the war on tf^ environment as well as on thegeopolidcal balincc in die Middle Eisi?
IJcsptte present dlfftculcies

and contradictions, there

is

still

hope

for

continued progress In disarmament negotiations concerning conventionalarmsand chemical and bidoglcal weapons. Wars on the world scale must be
avoided^ the powerand sophistication of modern weapons make winning outof the questton and the high cost of their development and man ufaaurc is apermanent burden. Inhibiting eo:momlc and social development Local wais

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal10 • The Fmt Ghhd RiFolutum

ui likely Coowari tie to occur unni som^ measure of overall global hannony aoiaUhbcd^ to thr period imdei leview. some fifty such wjts have idgcd dnd
there has been a cmsiderable buildup erf aims Inlhe less developed ojuntrks.
10 the detriment of their economic development.

The economies of the Indusmalized nations benefit gready tiom the sale of
itm%. The buiineis li highly ^mp«iuve and rantributes gr?ady to Inaeasmg
the threat of WIT. Furthermore, the irms ti^c can easily boomciang and hit

iheiutionssuppLylngtheaEms.ashdsbecnthe casein the Fatkhnd^W Gulf
wars. The linei. In particular, has hLg>ilighrcd the need to control ibe arms
Industry, both that operated

by the governments themwJvcs and that

Operated by private connatiors, in the [nteresc of humanicy as a whok.

H must be emphasized here that peace is not merely the absence of wat.

^d that even without war conQici^ will oontinuc and will change incharacter;examples ate trade wars,

tocdttarian regimes

colonialism- inequitable distribudon of resourcesisand economic

certainly

one of thestronger and mo5i in&idiou^ triggcis oE conllia.

Exiemlve disarmament— achieved oi planned — should set hec humanand material resouiccs, that can be used for mote positive putposes, such as inrestructuring the econonules of eastern Eun^pen providing more iz^vcsdneni In
Africa and Latm America, and miking possible envltonmcntjl renewal. The

process of disarmament, however,bringsIts

own problems. For somecotinlT'les.particularLy the Soviet Union, the process is diRicult on account of

the need to lehou^ large numbers of discharged soldiers and to absoibdvm
ina precarious and changing economy. As foi TcdJsttlbutlon of the turns

saved, these can all!

e^ily become unidentitaabLe within the finances of thenational treasury, or indirecdy tome under the control of narrow vested
interests.

E^tmoHiK charge

Great changes have also taken place on the- economic front and will be

more detail in Chapter J. After the period of rapid growth,
rctcssion set Jn SimultWCOUSly with the oil crisis. During die last two decadei
analysedinthe economic centre of gravity has mo vcd towards the Pacific region with the.

amazing success of the Japnese industrial economy, |apan now accounts foraboullSper ccniof the world's total tinarKdal activity, tlowever, this iS i^^
talking rapidly with the decline In the Tokyo stock market and falling realestate prices. Japan has not yet learned how to enerdse its strength, even if it

has contributed funds to assist debtors in alleviating their burden under the

Biady plan. Its political moves are cautious and tentative and, as yet. It Is mi aseffective internadonally a& Et^uld be.

One of the outstanding facts of these recent years has been the progressive

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

convcnion ro a marker rconomy. whlciisccnn

m be the common famre inmosl countrtfs of Ihc woild Open compcouon, jomeiimcs bruul, on bodi
the Inicinaumal aai Lbc dauqiuI h^c I^ *Xfnv\£vx4 not gnJy polidat
leaders, but also consomcrsH vtxas. and the community at lugt that the
vitjStty of It tE Tneplact^ble- Private busine^^ rs consideiMJ lo b« Its itutor,

picfil to be necfssjtv Eor

invKtmenr and the Einjncidl AUikCl to be theinevtuble meeting pornt between savings and investmentr

The elfccdvencss of the zzurkei as a soclai insdtutJon foi harnessing
productive eneigies lud meetliig human needs Is [xm unli/ersallyacknowledged. But matkci mechanisms alone camxjt cope with global
problems thai requite a (ong teim strategic ap^oach or Involve disttlbudonalIssues.

They caniKJL by thcimelves

solve

problems related toeiiei|;y,envlronmcn<H fundameniaJ research, o: t^rncs, Ody public Intervention,
based onpolitical

processn and often using market me<:hanismsasInstiumenQ of pubbc policy, can deal with thew problems.

Maikct forceson have dargciou^ ^ide effects bcause rbcy arc notfounded on geneial
particularly eloquentinterest

Iniern^nonal

fiiuncialspeculationliaexample of the excesses caused by market forces, ofpeople gripped by the madneu of

profitunder iay clicumsiances.

Spcculabon has bctoirie a game that Is unconnected w!ih economic realities; it
has escaped from the h^nds of men to be run byaBnputer ^tware arid has

leacbcd new djmen&jons and velocity thanks to the Information society.

Some efforts - still modest, for the task Is tremerrdous — are leading a firstattackofi

the undcrgtound

trifBcktrigof goods thn^ughItsfknancialmanifesrailons: the nxiney bundcrlng for diug traffic or unauiSortied arms
sales, for iniiance, is beOig discoveredby breaking the seal of secrecy on

nun:^bered bank accounis. HopefullyH such effbrts will liKrease and lead totrue Intemadonal cooperation.

We also can:»[ Igpotc gccu^tcgk: chingc. The worldiscuticndy

witnessing the emeigeiKe of three gigantic trading and Industiial economic
groups. The North American matket.

In which Canada has

taw joined theUnited Slates, and which Mexko 'a expected to ^in, will inevitably continue
tobe an IndusQlal and post-lrxlusulal group of great power. However, lis

immediate future is clouded by the Immense dc^tlt which, dmdzlnglyp (hetlnlicd States has allowed Itself to accumulate In recent ycais.

The development of the European Community, despite the years of
hcsltitkon, is now gdining momentum, ds its members see tangible economic
ind political advantages In ccwperstion and devise new mechanisms for its
operations.

As 1W3 approac^KS, bringing the completion of economic

integration closet, the Community has begun discussions on poLtical unity.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

12• ThcFmtGhAaiRn'aimim

This has become csp«ially urgent wlih dw reunification of East andW«i

Gcimany, A European CommuiULy embiacjng [he whole of the Western
Europe andlater[olncd byits

Eastern neighbours - whose tiansformed

economics should make this possible - would constitute i secor^ bloc ofgreat strength. Despite present conFusion,i[ lapossible that the European

rfpublte of Ehc Soviet Union will eventually follow the same toad, thus
unifying Europe 'horn the Atlantic to the Uial Mountains', as expressed by

Charles de Gaulle In I960.'

The thjid bloc consjsts of [apan and the ASEAN' countrfts, iiKludit^ foe
exAHipieThdlland.lndonesiaor Malaysia, which are growing lapit^iy Perhaps
Au&Hdiii jtkI tJcw 2c3\3tk\. which have sitong trading links with the other
Pacific councnes, may later find themselves in this grouping- Even at thl^catly

stage of development, die existence of these three blcri3 signifies an utterly
different world pattern of trade and industry.

These newcoujiirics.

blocs

are not restrlcuve.

on the whole, to other trading

although ihcy do have cerium non aiiH bariicrs and djsguiscd

proiectkon. There ismuch tiade between the groups. In any event, whatshould be emphasized Js that diere has been 3 very rapid dcvclopmeni oftechnology and an increase in the spee^i of its application whkh has modified
the relative strength of the different trade groups, especially diat of diejapan /ASEAN group.
This prospect has caused great concern m theother regions of the world,
Laljn America, close to the United States, but wjch a different ctho»,ispariiculjily perplexed. While initiatives fnDm lis neighbour in the north areon the horizon, lE is also stretching out towards Europe, with Spdin playing a
special role through its membership in the European Economic Communityand other European multilateral agencies and councils. The St>viet Union, in
disjrriy. Is not yet in a position to deal with this situation

China, jficr thebrutal events of IW* remains an cnigmai while impoverished Africa hardly

appears on the wocld economic map.

The South

Asianregion,dominated hy the huge geogrjphlcal 2nd

deiEtographic bulk of India, has made some progress, but it ts sdll uncertain

whether It will be able to make the sort of economic breakthro^h that has
occurred m 5Duth East Asia. Here, population control Is the key.
Great care will have to be taken in forging the links between the evolving

econom Ic blocs and the countries still outside. Some are already superclliouslyI

Ln a Ifjcvijjor inlcrvirw during hiivisil co Patu in iWt. Mjkhjil Gotiachey qinxed th\isutemenl bv dr GiuJJr whoi leEcnmg to Europe

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd irraterlaal.

A WhtrivindofChat^ » 13
referring Eo [he latter u ihc 'rtsidujlcounlries'. As these Include rni!nl of [1mpoorer couniries, (he new ctonomif panem necessiom j fundamcriQUy<ilffcientapproach to the problem of ovet^ll developmenr. Including iconceptual ^wuch from aid loparmerahlp. The Gulf crtsia may be a fbrciaitc ofmany conElicis to come, nai necessarily only In the fonn of North-South
tonFronQDon, bui rtlatrd io r«ouices which weII Include eneigy and food
population pressures, and ethnic uid religious animosities, [n aavdtlabllity,
pluraljstjc

world with marty

cultural,ethnic andreligious

differences,

acceptance oF od^ers Is essei^Eial ind Alll have to be manifested In both wordand deed, k has to be appieclatcd that the Western raOonallsi view of wjorld
problems [^difficult for many countries to accep[ and may a[ Qmcj be wrong.
Indeed, the position ln[raq in 1»1 represents a reiection of Western values,
largely supported by the Arab Muslim public opinion

Conflicts In a world domiiuied by huge trade blocs are likely to be uerydifferent

from those of today's world of nationslates.

Wirs between

counoitt wjthin a bloc or bccwccti blocs arc more llkcl? lo be economic thanmilitary

The role of the transnational corporations will probably become

Increasingly important, since their activities and concerns would permeate lU

die blocs.

The IntmUpmdtna iffnattoHS

A further feature of die get^litical scene

Is abelated recogn[iion of dieessentially global nature of nnany contemporary problems, which cannot be

solved or even approached realistically by individual countries In Isolation,
This has long been Ehe casein the economic field. One has only to remember

how quickl y die effects of the Wall Sirce[ aash in 1929 spread [o causca world
depression during the thirties, and how mass unemployment tends to appear
simultaneously In many countries. This global nature ot problems is no doubt
the inevitable consequence of the great expansion of world trade which thiscentury has witnessed. Morerecendy. global problen^soFa different nature

have anser

Law of die Sea'
negouanons and iniernanonal Rnarue. Recognition of this new situation^
These langc from environmental Issues toawareness of which came very slowly. If Illustrated by the mushrooming of
inicrg^vcrn mental Conferences and those of specialized professional and,sclenufic organliatlons during ouz peiiod of review, [t is doubcful if present

Jniernauonal snuciutes are sufficiently equipped to deal with thissituation.

The United NaDons andits

specialized agencies,

newwhich wtxt

founded in the posi-war euphoria, were designed io meet the needs of amuch simpler world siiuanoin ^nd arr increasingly inappropriate for Eoday's
needs The present Icss-lhan [deal circumstances provide an oppotruniiy as

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd maleriaal14 • TheFmiGUMBjviflurwH
well ai pgml io the impcrdbvc need lor rCalni^^turlng the Uiilud NlUOm

syncm, rcalloating the Funcckms of die various dgrncm and p:og[dmme3,
and providing 3 new fociu. Currail dlfEiculrio In rewtullzlng Unsco sbo*

hew ditticuk [hii will be. We ihould tUo urdeiLlne the ttKreasln^yimparonl roic Jitd gieatei rffectiveness of nacionj] jnd inlern^tionjl tJCOs(z>DngovcnimenQl org^niz^uon^] m venous Eiflds,
Concern about (he gJob^ enviionment i& giving tIicio a numbeioFdAK
enqujrips at diFEf rent leveh, InclLiding rhjt of Heads of Govemmeni. As jrx

such attempts are skitung ihf Etind^menul !55(imTt Is

hoped chjl cominon

andujilvcr^^hction eo comb^E&uchglobal problems will surmounEintei bloc
ilvaliy.

This lejds on to the coruLdciauon of [he remaikable JiiocaKe in the

Inicrdcpcndenccotiutkiru which our period has seen. The ilfc of economic

communities, [he need for a common approach lo global iaue&. the In^menseof Inrematkmal

expansioncommunications, and (beactivitiesof thetransnational corpontkin( are V^me c^ thc COnttlbutory ^^rs. In addition,

thespreadof technology andLtsKrvicesthioughout the world, the need forcommonstandards,

codes

of

agceedpractice,

wivelfflgths and a thousand othet technkral

dlnributfcm

ofa^temtna fepreiJifiF

[f\

radio

^!t

web of inlerdependence andaJf/tic^ erosion of nationalsovereignty, which govemmena hav<: noL yet fully realized.
totality, a spreading

The a^x of wvere^^nty h^s become mankind's rTU>3r rrilBton. Els God
Arnold Toynbeei

The very concepi of sovereignty procbimcd as sacrosana by al] governments has been challenged, and only partly because crfihe development ofregional communitto. indeed,

many smaller countries already have veryllnle control over their own a&Jrs because of decisions taken oucdde cbdr
lerrltoTles, such as the establtshment of commodity prica or Interest rates, radu« to by economic policies modlfi-ed co obtam IMF funding. £rosian ofsovereignty may be a posldvf move towards the new global system fot most
counirles, In which the nation state will, In all piobabibiy, havedimjnishjng

slgnlfkancf.

En the caseof most of the subSahatan countries of Africa,

however, the malciienancc and even the rclnforcemeni of sovereignty isejsertdal

Ia the present circumstances.

Theie coutnrles ize

intri[)Sically].Binnhhi3iotLijiU»tt-l«79^
2.

LnlFnudorul Monrlzc)' Fund

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

A WhtrivindofChan^ • 15
artifidaL dcilvcd through the process of dccokmfjation from the arbitnry

CJivIng up of die ojnTinent by the forsncr tioloiiLal povfcti-

nukm and i ituc. The A^<jn
itatc may tonslsioia number of tribes whshaie. In follcy, nations. A country
Elete II Is nercuar^ to distinguish bcLwecn isuch as Chad Is politically a sale, but Is not likdyioever become a nation. The
situatbn ij futthdi conipbcaud by thebd thit imponanr n^nor rr\bcs nay be

distributed between several slates. Recognition of the sovereignty of suchstates may ihetcforc be necessary to

encourage coherence uid common

idendly, bui It should lead to regionaE organization. In Litin America thenotion of uveidgnty Is sdU strc^glv defended as i t^rliiicjl defence against
the gTMipoxi^K.

A new concept has emerged a icon^quenceaf artificially cteated stateswidi nation peoples dispersed imong differenc sates: 'ihe right to InlcrFere(for humanitarian reasons!

^'"'srecently put Into practiceon a French

mjtiitive, and soon after with United Nations' blcsslngSn by Fiance, the United

Kingdom and \hc United Statn. Ii consisted of a humanitarian oper^uon in
IraqInfavouEof the Kurdish people. Such a concept. If It were lobe accepted
In [he fuEurr, would TepreEent a considerable evoluttan In international law.

which for once would be nxire a reflection of humanliatlan considerations
than of constitutional rules arkd nationalist self -centredness.

Tbt mvitkeniti^ of minorities and naiiimatism
This biing^ u& to appaieni patadox in world poEltical trends, On the one

hand there is a tendency to create larger units, » in the case of die economic
communities. Also, the resolution of the global problems demands action ona global scale. On the other hjnd.thfc^Lwwjdtspreid pub] If di^likf of what
is

seen

as

excessive

centralization.

I'hedominanceoElarge,

facelessbureaucracies which appear to disregard the needs of individuals and of local

communities Is generally resented. The sitiutton Is particularly acute wheresuch dominance Impinges on the idendiy of ethnic minorities, and In an
cvci incrcaungnumbctof pt^c^ edinl-c groups aic bccommg vocaJ ^nd a^tve
In theirdemands for autonomy or independence, in Europe, for exaznple. theCatalans and the Scots are asserting their nationhood, while the Irish, Basq ues

and Corsicans have resorted

Eo violence. Yugoslavia,

which is an uneasy

federation of republics with different historical tradlnons and ethnic mixes,

threatens to disintegrate.

China, too, has great eduiic diversity, but pejhaps die most remaikableof
all Is the situation In the Soviet Union, the most fTthniCjIlyhetaogenous of all

fedciMom. where the arrival of ^aoM and pcraJmlu htvt led to ^parjast
movements among a do^en or more republics, in America we are wrmessing

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal16 • The Fim Ghb^ Brptduam
the coUccEivc awak«ilrg of Amertcan FtxIi^ih who now hive recouTse to
dcUon. Hiipanic and other iiniepiesealed minorities who havt bthcrlo aim

bcoi powctlcs^r now hive the mems lo oke aokm.
These two appMttilly opposed trends are. In rcaiicy, compadblc. The

amflln irises from the difficulty of reconciling ihem within the exilsting
politif^l iysrem which i( tigldly bl$(^ On the A»dcl of the nation s(jLe. WhatIs

needed IS a rctorrnuUllon of the apptoprtiie Levels of dedjlon making so as

to bring the poln& ot declslon-maklt^ as near as possible to those who en|oyor suffer thdr comcqucnces^ Thcte appears to be a common human need Eor
ethnic id? n[iiy. whose [00t& lie deeply buileci In die past at the human lace.
Egualiyn ihcie ^ppnrs to be a wldesEoead leDdenc^smciiig peopk.

cum inethn^ly homf^meociK communities, to be IdenCi^d with the affairs,
prosperity tad environment of dielT' community His su^ested that a greaternumber of polnii of dedsion-maklng are ncces^y ungjng from the atilcdy
local to die international. Thtscould use the load on ccnaal governments and,help to humanise the jyitcm.

Urban jpvwih
Urban growth ha^ been a piomlnent feature of the modem en and Is Lkely
to continue as njch Accoc^Iing,

United Nati^ms enf mutes, ^iproiimacelydO

per cent of the world population will be iMng in townj at the™d of dieccnturv»ind there willbcabomthlrtycttlesjndieworld with more than fivemillion Inhabitants, with the largest,

Mexico City, having 24-26 million

Irkhablt^nts. While this Isa worldwide phenomenon, II: 1^ particularly in^rked
Ie3 thedcvdof^ng countries where ciues have mushioomed both due to a highbirth rjte in the dtjes themselves atkd an Influx of peasants who have left thelind to exchange rural foe urban poverty.

Et IsInteresting co note that in

London, the first city to have a populatron of one miillion inhabiLUitSn more
p&iple died chan wac born until ii*, incrcwc coming essentially from rural
eiTiigration. hi thedcvelc^ing countries todayn we see a reverse trend with

Internal growdi being die main factor of increase. This Indicates bow greadyxanlQiionand health have Improved, despite the very

difficultlivingconditions of the urban poor.

Managcmeni of die mammoth dtte, such as Mexico, Sao Paulo. Lagcs,
Cairo or CalcutQ, is exiiemcly difEiculc, cijHrci^lly stnce a large proportion of
the urban dwellers arc QnaEEiCL^I', livjnginfjvelasorshantjiowns, with little
or no sanitation and more or
Provlstonofwater,

healthless,outside the control of the authorities.

services,

ediKatfonn

employment,

urban

tnnjpOttaUOfrh imJ conmil of pollution arc some of ihe components of thecomplex of urban problems about which there ti no previous e>:penen<:e on

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

ihc present scale
All over ih< developing regions, paCCcmsof scniemem. and conscquenily
Lifesiyles, 2ie duagij:ig rjpidJy, ind tiirly brgr

dbn ue springing up, oFtcn

imMj of a tgnv/i oF shantytownsn completely lacking any

consisting

adequaie economic huti. En the Sabe] legion of Afdc^n tot Insrance, towns
such

as

NauakchorF, Bamsto andOuagadougou,

untilt«rt:nrly

quiet

admlnlsttailve cenaes, have become vast urban slums with ptobably as manyasa million Inhjbitanu each, and withallthe exp](stve econoniEc andpsychologkcal tensions that luch slums inevlubly suffei From,

The new

patterns of »en3cnicr>i and excessively rapid urban cKpanslon arf partly thetcsiilijl&o of high taifsoF population growihinfberec«nipist.

Througbauc the peiiod under review, great efForis have been made to
speed upliic

devc-lopmcnt of the poorer countries, thtough massive

programmes oF aid, both bilateral and multilateral, caplsl and technical, A
somewhar opCtmlJtkc assessment of some aspects of these etforts was nude by

Mahbub Ul liaq>:
Average life eupcciancy haj increased by slxiecn years, adult literacy by «J
per cent, per capita

nuirttional levels

by over 20 per cent uid cbild

mortality rates have been halved during this period. In fact, developing
countries have achieved in the last thirty yeais the kind oF real humanpnDgreH that IT took Industrial counrtltt nearly a centuiy to accomplish,

while the Income gap between North and South is still very large - withthe average income In (he South being 6 per cent of (hat In the North- thehuman gaps have been closing Fast: average life expectancy in the Soud) Is
by now gOpcrcenioFtheNordKtn average level, adiih literacy 66 per cen[and nutritional level 8^ per cent

It Is

true that ibc past rccoid oF thedeveloping world is uneven, as between various regions and countries,and even within CQunmes, lllsalsotruedut there is still a large unfinishedagenda oF human development— with one-fourth oF the peoplemdeveloping countries sdll deprived oF bask human needs, a minimum

inwmc level and dccon wclil scivi«s. But ibc ovcnll policy cokIujIwi Js
that die development process docs work, thar International development

cooperation has nude a ^gnlflcant differerKe. and that the Eemalning

agenda oF human development should be manageable In the I^QQs iF

development pnormes are properly' chosen.

1

Spedil AdvksoTiolINDf AdmlnmiiDr^pcisordlconimuiilcatiDrk. 1V90

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

18 • The Fmt Gkhai Rrmiuam
Nevertheless, results have been artCVCrt afld often disappointing. Hunger,
TnaLnurrldcqi. dlscMe ukI poveny id] iSUcti large pioportion of humanity

and jre aggravated by the popuUtion explocion, droughts andwars

mmy Local

The purchase of aims by many of the pootct couniiles from theinduitrialized nationi nor only icprcscni^ a huge economic burden, but also

encourages miliarism The jrms trade, in cffoa, produces i considcrible

flow of wcaidi from the poof lo die rich coontrla. A numbei oJ leading
developing tountries have al$o bulk up jn increasingly impMjnant acms
Irxlustiyn partly for e^tpon puipeiaei.

Sclendtlc and technaFogical advances rn the Industrialized countries tend to

Increase the rconomii: dj^uiic^ k^vccn ih? rich jnd the pooi counalesandlo Inhibn th-c latter from undertakjng technological jnnavacloni. Thus thepoor countrla. lacking Industrial, tedinologtcail and scientific structures ^ndbeen uiable to assimilate much of thetechnology jnd know how available to diem. Technology Qinsfer was
assumed to be the obvious method of IntroducUig new processes and new
tiajned managerial capacity, haveIndustries Inio theles^developed countries, butIt

has often failed—

sometimei is a rcniLi of selecting lEUpproprrttc processes or unsuitableindustries and Eometlmps, withd« transfer of state of the 3rr refhnolagy,

bectiuse of insufficieri i pieparaDon and absence of managemcni, maintenanceand mjikering skills Jn die receji'ing counuy Ofien new tec^ologies havebeen introduced far import subsi][utiijn which have noi achieved the hi^
iiandards which are necessarv lo ensure Inlernauonal compctitlvenesSr

Too much impatQncc has been

given lo laige saie andumcumesdtamadc schemes, for example the building of large dams to ptovtde
hydroelecQk power and make possible extensive InlgaElonfaclllQes^ All too
often the dam rescrvoln have sjtted up and the irrigation water has become

hu been lltdccompiicmcaiai]' industrkil development andno nual ekcujfication netwocks n convey dK powct ro consumcis, Al», In

salincH while there

die <icsign of suth schemes, loo lltde atKniltffi h as been given to social factors,

Indudlrig the dispbtementof large populations, the loss, of ktb of fertile soil

flooded in the reservtilr arei, and the spread of bllhareUsIs via the in^gadon
chaniKEs. PartJculaily In A^ica, the fragmcntauon of the conttnem into too

many small and economically unviable countries, each possessing markets
which are loo small, has limited the value^ large scale projects.

In agriculEure, the Green Revolution has registered iionsidei^ble success,with the Introduction of new and high yielding vanedesof wheiE, malieand
rice and die intensive useofnttrogenou^ternliTersespeciallyin India and other

Asian countries and In Mexico where the new btm technology was applied,Thii has enabled India to n>ove rapklly ftom a food defkn sicuaikn to a

Auleursrechtelijit besciiermd materiaal

A WhirtwindofChmngt • 19
sliuaHon of nuiglnil surplus, but hcic agiin diere hav« been unforturutesodal corscqucDca. The system favours ihc medium and ]»rgc sale iaimei

uid hjs thus Ifd to thr di^bccmenc of pemcn fumcrs and the m^don
Erom runl ams to die ddes. The energy Intensive nature of Ciccn
Revoludon Agiiculture may also cause Rnandal dlfftoildes for f^iTncis j^ d\
ptJMf coiutrtue tQ t\it.
[n odier paiu of che world and, once agakn espedaUy in many Africancountries

and in Latin An^iica,

InsiifRclcni

attention hasb«n paid toagricultural development, Fzequeni droughts, growing numbers of humanbeing; 3Tid dFii ma h, jndlonaTwajsor InEenidlconflKt&havcledtothceiosionof the resource bj?e jnd margin jlizcd large

numbm of the runl poor. Thisagain has deprived many people ol then land 3nd caused the rapid growth of

ihecldcsJtIs In urban areu that disconiem and insurrection flare up so easily

and hence govemnients have yielded to the temptadc«i of acccffding priority
to the allocadon of scarce rcsoLirces to projects of visible benefit to dty^

dwellers. As i leiult of dx Edw priority given to agriculture in miny Africanand Latin American countries, these coniinents are likely 10 continue fadng aconsiderable^ food deficit for many years to come.

A further myth of developmeni lore
development (rkklc down fromIs

that ihe benefits of economicd^ rich to the poor. Thisisalso aqucidonible dxoiy, Ln India, foi example, while thcGtccn Revolution ^^^provided fix>dinplenty,

there

Is

llide

evidence ofacommensucate

diminution of hunger, malnuEriOon and poverty in rural areas.
It \iAibeen customary in ceCenl deCides to ClaSslfy the Courllrlea of theworld into chree categories— the First World of the industrialized market

economy countries, the Secood World of the state economy Marxist world
and the Third World of die less developed countries. With the virtual
colbpse of thestate controlled

economies,

ihis

categtHy

now has lltde

relevance and needs to be cast away, while the concepc of the Third World

become almost meaningless because of the great divetsicy of
economic condittons^ and potentialities that tbc term embraces. To bunch
has alreadytogether Saudi Arabia and Sjngspote. ot Brazil, Botswana and Bangbdesb Is
absurd, Irj that generalized statement! of Third World problems have linle or1.

A slmir^i ilHiJtIon\-,

found (n ihtsc-tailfd NTCs ^Nc^^'ly iTidu^ir^liz^d Coviritrinl Thf

iczm tWili hji brcn u^cd cucniLdlly To dcsoibc [he ^pccucul^ dcveloprriencs m HungKong. Singapore. Soud^ Koiei and TilwiDr >Jdw tnhrr oHiDtiin ludi is IndonnLi,
tfCilaTda and Thailand are also lollowlng die sacnc padi. Laigc developing (ountrm
intludliie: Erjzll. Tndjj

jnd Mffcitn with ao irnJunrul hix crejird ynrs jro aie jJso

progieiiiflg tipidlv in [he uSi li nC* [cChnObSiti bul ire.

m quite diflcicnt oicgoria.

ThiB we bvf j sp«iriim o* dlffersH sTa^ of hidusuiilinuonr

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal20 • The First Gio6ai RnvtulHrnno rdfvancT lo indii/jduj] ascs.

ii isnow mor« popubr to itlet to the

drvrLopcd couniirlca as [be North and the undi^idirvelapNrd counuics a$ theSaudi. Despite the gco^phicj] anamaly of IncLudliig Australia In the North.
chiB nomenclature makesmore sense. The

Nmth South ac^iaUoD, bo wever,hampen the new effom to regard the problems oF development In dier^caial a wcU js Id die global comot of the lapldly chanetng world
economic system.
Recent years have seen the growth of indebicdness in a number ofcountries, in die cases of Argentina. Brizil andMextco this has reacheddangerous proporDcau and whjlc man y lending agencies hivc wrincn oEE dieir^ dxWhci^

iomz :csthedulLng hds al^tn plitc, ihz debt
situation lemalns grave- botb for ihc development possibilities of die dcbiot
hifi

dcbu,

counirfesand for thesiabillty of the world (natidal system. ]n Africa while,

IndeblcdnesiS is much lowei in absolute terms th^n in Latin America, thedebt servicing biuden Is ciippJing. At a time when capital flow has turned to-meet the needs of the East European countries,

lesscountries see llttk hope of an alLeviiilan of dicic

difficult situation.

developed debtor

Moat

extraordinary of all is the ^ct that the UEiited Siaus has allowed itself toacquitcanlrternal debt of list 4. J trillion llD89),greiterth}n that of art^odiCT

countrf in the world. This remains a dark stormdoud on the economic
horizonr

The giave problems of world poverty, aggravated by population growth,
could well give rise to great disharmony on i world scale, from which theindustrial countrirt cannot hope to escape. Et Is in their own self ^[f if ^t duE
ihe rich countries must take a new. powerfuUnd radically different approach<o the pioblems of world development. With the metamorphosis of East
Europe triggering the great demandfor capitaland for managerial andEechnoioiglca] Inflows, there Is a real feat thai the needs of the poor countries

will be forgotten or relegated a still lower prtorily than at present. This would

be dangerous noc only Ux the poot countries, but fcr the world as a whole.
Thi pcpuJ^twn txpitavm

The problems of most of the developing countries are giesdy exacerbatedby the population explosion. World pc^ulatfonn now just over ^ billion (fromLE billion in 1900) is expected to teach A. J billion in the year :CK10, and oveiS.^hillion in 20?5, according to median

UN projections. India's popubllon, for«KamplF. would Enc^ea^e from 81Q million now. lo 1446 million, Nigrria'a

from 105 to ysl million, and Mexico's from S5 to 150 million. By tar the gicaterpart of populaUon growth will take place in the less developed regions of theworld. Indeedn In the Industilailzed regions demographic growth Is very slow

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

diid In someaxs even rvgadvp, pming to dipsr countries i wholly difftrcnt

son of dl^loiltlcs iswciatcd wiih jgcmg popuUuom.

The wotld's Jggrcgjtc population is incrcuing it pitscnl b;^ one million
posons every Four to five iLyi {(he reference hcie Is lo nel gtowih, dial \ibirths minus deaths].

Aldiough Feitillty rates mc bcglEUiIng lo fall In someregions, bwausc fJ the vety low [ftcdlanag^ of rhdr populations, the dally

mouse In absolute terms will be greiter In ifae ye^r 2000 than

it

Is

today

because of the population explosion- ]n these circumstances It Is difficult to sec

how [he necessary food, housing, health c^re jnd educailonjifacilltfflan be[KOvided,

PopuLiDon growth isouinripping food production. Izi the yejrs pteceding
the recent drtnight, grain prtxluciiDn in sub-Saharan Africa was inaeasing by

about L6pcrcentpci annum -with population growing by 5.1 pel centr while
in some countries which hive the worst food shortages, pe: capita ptoduccton

has fallen by ibout 2 per cent per annum ovei the last decade. Funhermore.

population growth Is providing in inaoslngly Utgc woikforcc mainlr inunderdeveloped places

whae thcr-e ks already acute unemployment,poverty, and extensive underemployment. Thecreadom of millions t)f new

pbais indeed tme of ihemtHtfotnilddblelash^ie^Lilting from the population
explosion.

April 16. I9&ti - Chernobyl. USSR:

^ accident at the nuclear power station at

Chernobyl destroys the reactor and projects S tons of fuel (or 50 millbn cuiiesof tjdt^tlon) Into die atmcnpherc. A ladloactlvc cloud hangs ovet Eutope.
especially affecting (Jkrairv and Byelorussia (ttSSRj, Finland. Scandinavia,

Poland.Cernuny, and France. Immediate consrquerxres: ^^perstmsotflaallydeclared dead ^?Q from r^diautm). 150,000 people evacuated, IIP villages

4W people leriously wounded, AOO.CtO people
exposed 10 radiation of whom n have become permanent invalids, jnd 7.000
permanently abandoned,

to ?^ .000 people expected to develop cancer In the coming years. Food crops
arkd animals are exposed to radiation for several yean all -over Europe- In 1M0,

approximately i million per^^ns are still ur>der medical supervlston. with
reports of at leut two persom dying every day as a consequence of thfEiiidcar
accident,

March 24, IPS^-PrirKe William Bay. Alaska; American oil lanlLer S.S. Ejan

Wt^z runs aground, spilling 40.000 tons of oil and pollunng over L744
kilometres of the coast, kill]rtg 480 otters and 33,126 birds. USS l.Qbilbon are

Spent to clean up die ^lll and to pay rampc nuuon to Ei&hing villager for thedamage caused

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal,

22 • The First GUthHlR^vGiutvm
DfCf mber J. IPS*— BhopaL India; a kak ai th; Union Carbide pcsncMle
huxaty polscnu theJlrwith methyl Isocyandic^MX) pcopJc dnd

kjllingwounding J00,COQ, of whom 50,000 remain permdncndy di^blcdr

A sulking faCure of the pedod under levlew is widc^pccad jbrn-i ai thedclcHotatlon of both the ruial and the uiban envtronn^nE^ Environmental

palluGon was a coneqaence of ihc

Induscri^l RcvolutJon

and w^^ well

documcnicd In nlnneenth century UienturCp wtdi Dldkc's 'dark Sauoic mllb'
of indistrial Englmd, the ped wup fogs ind the diJty ilvcrs. A degree of
poHulkin control was gradually established

moH countries throughinlegislation, h'll heavy pollution of this sort persists in easlein Euic^ as thehettiagc of the MitxUt cccMXimy,

By l%S.htnvever, a new cofKem hid surged. Industiyh^d become much

more sophlsdcdted. its output had diversified enormouiiy. wld^li» products,
bypoduct&H and wastes,inmany oscs toxk and ixm biodegradable

dispersed everywhere In the blo$phctc. In addition, the ItKteasc In world

population arxJ

Its

concentratkui In

huge titles,

aswell a& the masiJve

consumptltm tifgotxls and rruterlaU. was marking It more and more diEficuh to
dtspose of sewage and loJid wastes. It had been assumed until recently thatbenevolent Narure would forever a b»rb and neutralize the w3?tf p-oduo^ ofsodelyspewed into die air jnd deposited in the soli, the river? and the oceans.
This as&umptltm no longer holds good; we appear lo have crossed j criticalthreshold, beyond n^tch the human Impaci on the envifonineni threatens to

be desnuctlve and possibly Irreversible.
Public cocKcm was uouscd by die pub]icjuoo of popular books such i^

Rachel Carsons' S&ai SfitH^^ and Schumacher'^

icacOons

became

vocal

widi

conservationist

everywhere*. As public pressures grew
governtrKnis

took

action.

in

EnviEonmentaJ

SnidFTjil^auiifuV.

movements&y ]06t,
appearingthe industrialized countries,
polkfcs

andenvliotimcnal

tnlnimiu mushroomed ind, since polluilon l9 no tcspcoer of politicalboundaries, environmental issues reached ihe forums rrf Inietnatlonal<Dnferences. This resulted in much Impravemcnt; nuny of the grosser kJruisof pollution have been eliminated as a rcsuk of legislative acckm^ The
adoption of principles such as 'the polluter pays' has forced Irtdus try to accepta

new social responsibility; rivers have been cleaned up and air pollution

reduced, while

1.

CjrsDin, IW.

I

SchumitfwT,

everywherelocal

groups are

vigilant

with regard toW^},Thr United KiaomCodcnHC on the HununEnviioninenn in SiKUtdmtntnL'Q^'wtfi

brbdma rb nml.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

.

A WbirivindofChat^ • 23
devclopmcnEi which mlf^hr chrcsicn the f nvironmcnr,

samcdmn advisingpeople with useful [(tresighl u)d conunon seme. Jnd n other omci dciJng
with Euutidsm.

An InuiAQdg development has been the wajr in which cot)Ccmcd publtc
gtoupd have come logctheria oke dliect political KOoa. The rl&c of (he green[tarriesha^been usefultnforcing

the rrsdiuanal

parties

lo

take

the

envlronmenul issue? senouily, although ills difficult la foiCKe J Usdr^Tok
foi <hem,or,fDr thai marter for any single muepjrty. The 'green movement'H

nay he In^Jvertently dlvertUig publk anentlon frotn thelot^ cettn and nxjre seiiaus environmental Issues, which wc sh^TI diBcuss
useful ds

latct,

It

is,by Impressing d)cman in the street with proof of e;isj|y appiecjaud,

immedTately visible, but stilcdy local damage.

Annililljline dll ihac'^ m^df lo i grevn thou^Eht in a green shide.

Until

lecendy nwst fbnns of environmental detctlotaUon have been

es^enrf3]|ylaealandeouldbe-ellm1natn]byloc3hndn3t[onalaet]on,aia<tni
cciuinly, but one which could be bomerflawevei.envijonniental threats ofanew magnitude fuvc now been Identified, which demand quite a different

approach. These have to do with a numbci of macro-polLutkin phenomena

which ate global In scope and beyond the capacity of individual countries tocljininace.

At present ihere arc fbm promlnenc sons of mdoo pollution.,Di^/imffir of tttU

consist bothm^Unca tnU lAc minnwunt. These loxic substincesd non- btodegrddshlechemiali jnd radioactive wastes. Initialconcern was aroused by the discovery ofthe widespread diffusion of DDT,

which was detected even in perfguln eggs In AntarcOW- This suggested
that the DDT molecule might find ics way Into the human food chain andaccumulate to a threshold of danger. Subscquendy, many other roi:lc
materials which arc widely diffused have' been idcndfled and it has been

pointed out that viEulendy loxtc matenals may penetrate Into the nuJnaquifers of the world within a few decades

Accumulation of tojiic wastes,difficult todispose of locally, have

toduced a number of industrialized countries to e:ipart their argoes of
poison' to poor counties In

nghts. This].

Is

Afha which ate willing to x[\ discharge

an Immoral trade, and its continuation will be to the

Scvcnuxmh cenlur? Caroline poei.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal24 • The Fmt Global R^poiuatm
dcirlmcrii not only irf die receWng country, but II wllJalwadvcndyaffHi
Lhe whole world.

Ai yCT, (here a no sansfaccory soltinan for the d[spo5al ofradioactive wastes, whfchf bcciy^t of ih-C v^iy long haULfe of nuny

ndjo isofopcSn demand cxticmel; long caaQliunent.
Af^^fntJiH «/ luibi iiid (Ac dcitniitiiH if firinfi cati^ii i^ cifluenh. from diedilmnc^ of coal burning power sQUoiis, steel itilIIs, jnd no oa. Thli
danger has bcoi lecognlzed for some lime now ^nd
inteiTiational complaints. For example, the [ikesh^ resulted inand btests of eastern

Canada suffer from the imoke of Industile? In PItabuig, and those of

ScandfnavlafromtheaddgasesotthftictorleiliiThefngMMldlW^anddie Ruhir Much can be done hcie on alexia] basis [lor imeEnduonal as wella& local results) by scrubbing Que gases, using low- sulphur oils and coals,

and othei means, but It ts a costly and djfficuli buiincis. The process ofacjdjEic^cion has not yet been fully understood, and dicrcmay be otheragendes at work In iddiUon to fonnmlmtfon by effluenc.

These s«jb^anccs are chosen (aiiheii

extreme nabtltty under normal

lerrstial condmons and used as aerosol propellants and In reftlgeratOTS^

UnfonuiHiclj,

when

ihey

a^cai

to

rhe

upper amiospherethey

decompose under the influence of ht^-intenslty uhravloteL r^i^oots andrelease cblodne which attacks the stratospheric zone. The discovery a few,

years a^, of large holes In the pfotecDve Dxane layer above Antarctica

caused alann that this layer was being depleted of ozone and that thismight c^usc jncreased ultiaviolct radjaiion a the e^iih's suifacer which

would greatly increase the risk of skin cancer ard other diseases. TheCFCs
were soon detected as the eulpriis.
Intei^rtationi] ^crion was obviously

nwMsary lo prevent furchft damage

to theozone layer, and subsequent efforts to achieve thb suggest the typeof International negotiation that will be necessary in othei andmotecomplicated cases In future. The smiaiion is essentiilly quite simple, sincetbenumbcc of chemical plants pEoducingCfCs In the wmtd is quite small.
The Montin] Confeicncc oi 13S9 succeeded In producing a gencial
agreement on the nature of the problem and on iia solution, namely thedevelopment and use of dltcrnatLve piopelLants that are ozone-fhcndly As,

a lesultn the use of CFCs

may soon cease in ihe induJtdallzed counnlca and,research and development to thh end ts being actively pursued. The
difficulty l&[haisomet}f die poorer cau[tmc&,&iji;h^a]ndLd and Chin^, haverecently started up

G^ manulacture in response Co the national need f«

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

A WhtriwindofChan^t • 25
ext^ixJjng Ec^lgeratlon tighu.

Tr isdiFFicult to cjipea

such countries toabandon recent invesimeni ^nd start agin withoui external i-ompcnsatkm, and ihis problem has dius not yci been solved.

Mml ititnQLin^ RUTd-piQuUn i^ iai: tAe a-ctlUi iPCfiAffior rffetr' which Is
Increasing the tempcratutc oo die earth's suitKC. This effect concerns theextent to which ccitaln comtliucnts of the atniosphere mirict therenecttan of soiar tadi^Tioiki Erom [he surtice of the earth Into outer spice,thus trapping die hf Ji The pioportkms of the nuni constituent ga^cs of m.

axygen ind nitrogen, seem to have remained constant during die past
mllicnid.

and jiE present iife processes ate regulated by this. Howeveir

other gases which exist in much smaller concentrations and were Formeriyreferred to as 'trace gases' control the greenhouse effect. Since theIndustrial BcvoiuUon, the proporUon of these gases in the atmosphere ha^jncreased. The roosi impottani of diese, carbon dioxide, has increased by

25 per cent, oxides of nttrogen by 19 pet cent, and methane by 100 per
cent. Other ga^s In die aunostJ>ere, such as our noiotious minmade

CFCs, aiso add to the effect, ai docs terrestlal oionc. Concern about theconsequences of dungc^ bruu^t about by the greenhouse effect drose

from observanon of the Increase In carbon dioxide concentration. The
influence of the othci ttKe gaaca was leallzed quite leccndj^r It wa»r^oilc^ thii the propoiiiDn of carbon dic^iilde in die atmospherf haj
Increased more slixe die JndustilaJ Revolution than In the previous sixteen

thousand yeais, due to die combustion of fossti fuels such as oil and coji

which ate thf bibj^of IndustriallzaClon.Thls Increase is also the result of areduction In Nature's capacity to absorb the gas through photosynthesis,

because of thf pxtensjvr ellmlMtton of the nopial foieso.

A number of different and highly sophlstlated gbhal climatic models
Indicate that adoubllngof the prevloiisequLlibriamconceniration of carbon

dioxide would resuU In an average increase in rbe surface temperature ol theplanet of between J .5"c and A5X. It ts extremely difficult for die woild
public to appreciate that this Invisible and apparendy harmless gas whichbubbles up from our whisky and ;oda or Coca Cola, and which we outselues
exhale, Isi potential ciimlnitorofouipiospcrkiyindbfesiyles. Assuming dui

die pieseni Industrtal practice of burning fossil fueU continues, saiuraoon
point might be reached In fonyto forty-fivc years Incicislng piopoitlons ofI.

Although [lie "gicwihouif effect' It fflJl j conEiDiTnljl lubieci ind abol^^TC ccitajniy
about iti eilitencf i^ill not b« fiOBlbte for Unthci ten jna. if lE e aHiRrmed by -Juitime. wIjkIilivciy llfceir, ii rtrlll be uo liic ro do drjdiing itnji n.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal26 • The Fim Gbtal RrpoiMjon
the othir grtfnhoui* ga^w makt the problem ^nl] movt foiwphaiMJ,
Great uncertainty sdlL exists with cegard ic thji problem, cspccjally the roleof the oceans in jbsoibmg cacbon dioxide, and la the possible ^K^sicnce of<i\hv sinks for the gas. However., drcumstanual evidence Is now so strongthat the probabtliiy has to be taken seriously. The probable consequences ofnrth- wirm [ng will be discussed in the nen chapter, but suffice ][ to say hereman; and seiloiu. li nanoits avoid Qkln^ dctjon luiill thetonsequcnces of the gteeohouse effect become obvious, it may be too late tothat rhey ate

On th? other hai^dn if action Is
taken now and the onset is slower Than predicrcd, cmrmou^ coit& will havebeen inturrcd This brcoma, Therefore, a ctac caw of the need (o develop
reverse the process, with dj$asitous results

methods oE man^ment and dca^ion- making m uncertainly
VVe must return brtefly to die question of the eJimlnatkin of coplcal
foints, which, in addition to Jtscontrlbuttonto the greenhouse eEfecE, is to be

decried formany other reasons. It generates local and regional dlnuDcchanges, causessoilercKicin and dciwnstream flooding, and frequendy loves
soils which are unable to sustain agiicultute. En the ease of the

Amazon Basin,

especially, it fnvoives the «dnctton of innumerable plant and animal qiedes

ara flme

wbw the pt«er«tkw of gewflcdiveriliy U oi imflwwe lm^mn«.

In addition. It catises great human suffering and cuftural loss as foresi peoples

aredisplacedordieout due to their mabiliiy to adj usi to a r^w v/iy of lile.

We must also mennon the problem of the Increasing ^ardty of fuclwood
jn reany countries Jn Africa, Asia and eUcwhcic

The bunni^ of wood andcharcoal sdll temalns the main domeidc cnagy source for a high pro^rtlonof the rural population. The gachering of ^el is generally d woman's task.

Widi demographic growth, accessible wood has become increashigly scarceand In some cases, a dail^ task which formerly took a couple of houts now

demands sm. Shortageof wood encouiage^niral populations to bum animal
dung is fuel, diuf leading to the Uck of d^d; ndiuial ki^ixi fn crops andthereby to the dcierioiation of die soil In many tioph:il dtles, fuel wood has

become exorbitant ar>d households have tiirr>ed lo using kerosene fur theirdomesdc needs. This necessitates the expetidlture of scarce bteign currency,
as do changing focjdhablu. As Lester Brownj the president of d)eWorkl watch
Institute. USA, puts It,

nuny cities in the poorer CDuntrJesaiclJterilly livingfrom ship to mouth',
Tht s^vafia of hifiinfiiimk^m

Our present society is built materially on highly successful technologicaldevelopment. Ever since tiie onset of the Industrial Revolution, with its
replacement of human and animal power f^rst by the steam engine and later

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

,A WhiHwind of Change • 27
by cl^ctiiticy. productiviiy hs increased D«pltc rarly fcara, this has led cothe giowih of markets inacascd cmpbymcnc, and rhc spread of pcosperlcy,

At fir sc, dicic df vclopmenii wcic milnly based 00 cn^rlcal bvcntton Wtth
the emergence of chemical 3nd ckctiital industries, however, the main

Impuke to developtr»:n[ has come from the discoveries in dK sdenttElc
liboraTorifs. The success o\ lechnologtcal d^veloprntm jnd ihe role of ihr

appbcabon of scientific methods In detetmtning die outcome of [he Second

World War led podt-war govemmencs and theli tnduscrjes id give massive
resource support Co sdendfictesejcch jndche jpplicjUQn of tcs discoveries Jd

tedmology. The le^d umc h^om ^Cieodhc discovery, thitxigh applied reieardi

and technlaJ deuek^pmeot, to pioductkjn Is long. Hence duting [he first partof the peilod under review we saw mainlv Improvements and novelucs o( arelad-vely traditional ktnd. Later,

bteakrhroughi cxiciured and completely

new types of techiKslogy ippcaied, especially booi the discoveries made insolid -$tate physics and molecular biology,

TfieapplliatlDnaofthcncw.jtdvariccdEfiihnologie^ jce now^ tvidcspri^

we can only present a very superficial Indicaoon of ihetr slgnl&carw. The
ubiquitous application of mkroelectronlcs Is now obvious in bciorlcsp ofhccs
thaiand shops. The silicon chip microprocessor with Its low cost and extreme
miniaturlzatiot^, mahes It poisible to provide a brain and a n^emory to any

piece

of

equipment

devisedbyrraan.

Furthermore,

microelectronic

lechntqueswoikwellwithmanyotheitypes of advanced technology such ashologFaphy. satellite use, liquid crystal technology, and gbss-ftbre optics. The
results ippeat In an enormous variety of mlcroeleoronk devices iind s^dg«ts

of ever tncrcaslng sophtsOcailfm. Computers, when first devebpcd duimg
the World War Jl occupied whole rooms widi bulky equipment. These are

mw miniaturized, much ^er, more reliable, cheap and widely jvailable^
MEcroclectionJcs has penetrated deeply Into livlustiy ^t every stage, fromdcjign to packaging. Automadon and robodndon ate inodifying Indusoial
processes and structures, and are ellmlruting^^ngerous, dirty and tepetldve

new skdls and clallen^g educational andtralnmg traditions. Ar>d this Is only a begirtnlngi new generations of 'smart
tasks,

creadng the needrobots' are appearingforwhldi can see and feeE^ emphasis Is shifting fromjmprovements in hncproducdon towards integtatcd systems of man [rtacture;new (ypes of equipment are bemg devdsed through •mfdiaaanm, a combined
approach whtch brings together electronic and advanced mechanicaltechniques. These advances are rapidly periccradng all sectors of the economy

and constitute the basil of the pan- Industrial sodely. Whether these advances
wJll be fuliy responsible for change or net depends on the evolution of manyof the other ch;ingcs we have described.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal,28 • TbeFintGioJaUBjToiuiwn
Katonubc banking and tht C3&hlfss sodcty vc already hect, viHic
aulonuled stock exchanges and financU] tmufer systems operate ^11 cooqulcklj' someames; the computer has invaded every type of research acavitj

horn hisiory to 2\tcah design

Nowhere has ihc impact of elecuonlci been more marked than incominuniaO(m&, Trkphonc ^^tcm& have impcoved immej&uTibly The useof telefax hisfpread at an eitaaardindry late, elecdonlc maki systems hdve
prolifi=raiedii]dvldeD confeicndngisnowposslble. MostdTamadcofall has

been die steadily ad vjni:ir]g influence of television. This powerful aim of themedia has CHicndcd wuildwidc during the prcsem period; it Is employed In
thctondldonTngofpopuladonscom^ethfrr^iccqitthracisofdiaacors, andused for educational purposes, for the broadca^tjng of news and oplnkms{of[«n chdiacterized by distortion

enteraknmeiit.

Itsai^ triviahzation) and, above alh

Influence on the political system

is

for

now cnormous^

Eltctoraces are now swayed by projeclions on television of the charisma of ihe

andiddin oi by :hc abxncc gf sudi publidty. On die othcf hdnd, Lvetransmisskm of parliamentary pnxeedfngs has, in a number of counoie^n
exposed the triviality of debate ai>d che banality of political personalities^
This has contributed to the present lo^s oF pubUr confidence in the opei^tionof the democratic sTsccm,

by demonsttaang that soeallcd parhamcncary

debates merely consist ofliie

contnved ccxifrontatlon of voteseelting

political parties.

A word must be added here, concerning the slgni^cance of liie other^vanclng mainlineof technology, nami:ly

bioJogy,whjch\m beentransformed by the understanding of the functions of DMA, the unravelling of
the genetic code, and ihe

developmenis areodvi discoveries -of molecular biology. These

much

less

visibletothepubUc than thoseinmicioclectronto, bui arc equally profound and Important for the future ofihf\nanm tKt. Many difficult ethical quesdom have surfaced, especiallywith :egard to the potential manipulation of human genes Already genetic
engJnecEing has produced many Important advances in medicine, and many

more are CEpecled. Creat advances h^ve been nude in the modificauon ofplant and animal species in the area of protection agatnst diseases and changesof climate, a» well a \n tncicving agriculiutal production ^nd modifying the
products. Unfortunately, these dramatic genetic modifications are llXcly to

prcxluce considerable improvement in regions whcie they are least required;for instance, increases inmilk yields^ initially at Least,

will

occur In pbce&

where there are already abundant reserves of milk. It tj somewhat troubling
tonotethattecent][idgemeni3 make it possible toobiain ptent rights for new
genetically ptoditced species.

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

A WMHrntuLofChar^ • 29
Waridjinana

The economJc uansfoiirubonof [be East

the USSR, requires quick actionii

European counties, including

cconomtc ccJlapse Is to be avoided.

ftciectJon of dtf Marxisc ly^icm and ronverjton to a nurlLet economy is noteasy. Not only musrneiv ^trucuirea be created, but endrelych^ngnfamtudcs

on die part aE chf workforce snd msnsg^ment are n^ cesssry br adapQUon toa cotnpeUdve system, Cuai^nteed eznpJoyment In the old system Inevitably

mejnt low productivity, while lack of Incendve inhibited all Innovadori.
Consequently lb«e countries now find themselvea burdened wtth debts,
highly polkdng ^ciorkcs wich obsoli^te equipment, a shortage of capicil, and a

Uck of Enodem managcmcni skills. Sodal and psTchologJal adjuE[in«n[ will
be nccenaryn

foreKamflc.

m fsdng rhc ucihmiliar situation o\ tnasstue

unemployment CoiuidcnbJe r^xteradi help will be needed, notonly in the
pfDvisio II of capital, but al» in discfonn of technical aixJ managerial assistanceand many othtr aspects of free market developmetU. In the case of unified

Gcnniny, the Federal Bqiubllc will be able to furnish East Germany withcapital,managerial

know-how and training, but it Is

unlikely thai die

ttansfbimaDon of Eist Geimany wiLI be achieved wtthoui a great deal ofIndividual and social h^rd&hip,

Hopes have been raised In eastern Europe about the prosperity that wltl
flow from the adopdon of the market economy While thoc hopes arc
largely justified, ai least In the long run. It Is Imponant diac market forces

should not be regarded jstheonly^genislndieacqolsitinnDtabeEieE life, andthat their limits should be understood well, as mendoiricd earUer. Ideals

should not be cast out Indiiccinnjnjtely; It is necessary to retain some of ihe

more positive aspects of sodabsm. Odmwise there could be a luddish against
capjUllsm.
Pol iitcal power in themodem world \% no longer controlled mainly b; diepower and relaUve sophistication of ^rmainenn, but is lEicreaslngly
determined by financial power. Indeed, In recent history, excessive
exper^lture on aimaments las proved ruinous to the two superpowers,
while the two countries prevented from rearming after defeat In the Second

World War are those wirh die largest su rpluses. In addldon, it Is detrimental
for thr big powers that theit tndusincs depend only on the stJie market anddonolthereforebeneftt from the normaJ&ee trading conditions dsac exist inodier councrtcsIn the
Fininclal

mid to late 1980s, financial fieniy gripped the world markets,
arxl

currency exchange speculadon,communicadons, became

a

aided

by computerized^me completely dlvofccd ftom CCOnomlC

reabty. Mergers between firms Tnushroomedn aimed at immediate gains ai>dAuteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

unrdated ro loAgcemi ^ffidcoey. Imtdcr b^iiiig ind otbcr foiim ofcorruption flourished in pbcca hUherto leguded

u ethkJL)' relJibte,

Eccmomlc gjln wa& ccvKdvfd ofinrennsof ^aodai o^actiociig raihet thaninnouauve and compcdilvc dcvcJopm cm, often la Isolation froin the ph^iicilr»]liy undf [lying flEUiKe (bi example, cdL pdce was determined by the

QTWla laihci thjn by [hf jvalhblllry oi oil, «se oE exuicilon, etcj The
cDiiaequcnces of such pracdces gave rise to fears of a stock market collapse;

they aim reptesented a fbghc fiom re^l industry to finuidal LblJy^ Ftnandal

imablbty l» sail a JouKe of ^nou^ lurbulcncc withjn the pioblcmatiquc.
ThflessofpaiHti

There appears

(o

be

3

generallossof the values which had previously

ensured the cobecence of society and the confonnancf of IndividuaU ^a ks

norms. In some places diis has been the result of a loss of ^ih In religion andthe ethical values dut all religions promulgate^ In odier cases It Eiems from aloss of confrdence in the pollOcal S^S^n:^ Ipd 4k>^

who operate bt. Yetapln,

the welfare state, desplie all the social advantages and security it confers,

seems to have reduced the sense of nTponsiblllcy andselfrellaEKeof many
Individuals. All thlsfusledb>a[ihKr«ashigr«tKtlonofthcdcdiiMisflf rhe

majority by minorities, often aggravated by a sense of social Injustice or
exploitation. However, there are a numberofc^rlng organizations which lookafter diosc who need help. These signs of die existence oE tradlllot^ values
snllremain modesC-

Thc&f ^d many other causn hive Erd rotbe sixiaE indj^cJpJjnc, vditddllstn

and violence that have become a tradernack of our ag<r In cases of rea] orImagined political peisecution or of radal discrimination, violence can breed
terrorism, which attracts malcontents and fanatics. Such people have taken

great advantage of technology thai provides ifiem wil:h new and effective

cxplnives, accurate delayed tjmj[ige:cpEciSLvedevjLesandiemoteti]ggeimg.
[n some cases training In terrorism ^nd sabotage,and equipment may hdve

been provided b^ rogue oriuntries. These are all manlfi=siatians of the generalmalaise ofcontemporarysodeiy that can. In feci, be dealc with as such, in cases

where a widespread sense of deep Injustice is ^bc cause.
The HOP pit^ffnes

A different categoryisthat of crime, violerKe and coercion organized formonetary g^n 01 political power. The classic case 1^ that of the M^fla. Still

more dangerous has been the emergerKe in recent years of the wellorganized drug trade carried on by the Mafia and other similar bodies, which
has gained enormous power and attacked whale governments with terrorist,

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

A Whirlwind of Cha»^ • 31
Tactics. Tt is s jid thjt [He cotal eariitngs^om th? drug aadr exceed even ihit ofthf oil liidusD'y. The diug nfiwork, Etom che cultivator through the drugbarons who operate chemical plants for refining drugs, to the couriers aihd
dIstiibuEors,

I& allpervasive and al dmes seems invuhicrable.

misery and disintegration caused by drugs Is enormous and.

js

The human

we are aboui to

The growth oF this evil, which shows nosign of slowjng down, has bec:jn:^e 3 mattei of deep coTKem.bul there 15 great
unceralniy a, to how lo attack it. The hnaJ solution would be Co reduce
ind[cate, ir sptfadi ledul disrties

demand dvon^ trejDnoituid education, but dils 1$ vcr>^ dlffJccik In view ofthe wide dlxprrtionoF drug- rakecs So attempts »re being made coellminaCf[he powcE centres of [he industry jnd Eo compcmaic chc cu1eivi[q[& bylUowing them to produce food crops.

we must point out the existence of the recendy discovered deadly
disease known as AIDS ^acquired Immuno-defiaency syndrome). Tiiggercd
bytheH[V virus, itis a tCKuaUy transmitted disease which is also passed on bydiuguscn through toiiEJtnjnatcd nerdlcs. furthermore, infeacd pregnint
womenhjveavery high chaTKe of giving birth to babies who will carry arhd
Fin-allyprobably develop the virus. bi the eaily stages of its hrscory. the vtrus ttaa

tiansmfttedtoTeedversorhloodnansfuKlons In which die donated blood h^dnot been checked for the virus. An infected person may cany the virus for a

umbci of years without any iH-eSects, but

itthen usually devrLops into

AIDS, which attacks the Immune system and causes death through one ofmany diseases which the patient, with a damaged immune system. Is unable
U fighl. Al present, progress has been made toward; a cure and newtieatmcnD aimed at alleviation of suffeiing a ULtcnsun of Hie arc being
tested wi[h erxoun^tn^ resuhs^

AIDS appears to have already reached pandemic proportions in some
African countries andItsglobal spreadisgreatly feared- Apart from tbe

mo[[alky rj[c jnd leriLble human iuffeung involved, the cose of deatmeni

2tA of education campaigns a a great burden to these countries where ^nxmopabzcs hospital accommodation and diverts attention and effort fromdie cure ot con[iol of tnalaria. biJhama aod other debilitating disease?.

AiaQme when medfclne has made mch extraordinary piogtess bath In lO[hcnpeuticandprrventjvf capacju», AID5 reminds ujth^f in jpkc of ill [hJs
progress,man reTiHtns vulnerable in the area of both physical and mental

health. This deadly disease, agamst which vaccination is ineffecuve becaiue of[he mutatton of certain vlruscSn <]cnu>mtiates [hat at least for the Ume being,

the permanent stiuggk for health, despitesome wishful thinking. Is as

unavoidable as death.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

2,

Some Areas of Acute Conc^m

From our survey of recent global changes- Ilis doi duE cheie is considerable
mteiaction between the vailois element of (he piobkmaOque Popukdon.

growth In a poor counny ior Insiancc, means ihji mof e food has to be grown,,which in lum will put prrs&urc on soil ind waif i r«ouif«. Itihr food has tobe imported, it means the diversion of scarce hacd cunency icserva EromothrrareasoFdevelopmeni. Again, a large poputationu^lll have an Impici onche environment, leading perhaps to the eEcessive cutting down of tiecs for
fuel, with the social consequences that wt have desciLbed.

This dupia will deal with»mc of die mosi uigcnt indtenal ptobkm^

wh^ now appear to be threatening humanity, and espcci^lljr that part of the
problem^tique,consistingof theIntertwining

factorsofpopulatfonn

enviranmeiK, food aiMJ, energy.

The^njvrh afhwaan ncanry

A central feature of the global situationIsthe enormous increase In thehuman activity during die procnr fmcury. which has neccBarily
led to a huge rise in ihc demand for raw materials and energy Much of thistotality ofincrease is due, ofamrse.lothespectatiiiar growth of the world populaOon

during thi^ peEiod. whose numbers wiU be added to In the ve^i^ ro come bycohort after cohort of new inJubitanta. Some people' ^rgue diat fertility has

bc^un Lo dcaciK in ill pans of die world- Accordiog uj Uni^ Ndtioni
estimates, the level of fertility has gone down from an average of 6,1 chlLdien
per woman inl065-1970to).Qin 1985. The cultural obstacles to demographic
I

CtvndH. iDftT

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

SemeAroBofAatUCimam * 33
cbngf jrr considfntil? u)d cbcy £111 delay chc ^pcctcd chaAg«s bp Crne ar
two dccadcj. but they t:in do no more In the end thjn slow down inincviQble trend which is laigdy atttibutabic to modernization. The issue is
not whether FcttJilty will go down, but when and jt what rate.
All

the Sime,

even

i\

were

fcrtillcy

to

slow

down drutkally.

ihedemographic thrust contained in the jge pyi^mid ts such th^f population

growth will condnue on Its present course for rruny decides lo come and thi;will require

some iiKJactous InnovaDons Ln deveTopmenl stialegles.

There Is sw even more powerfulfactor responsible lor the growth ofhum^n jcilviLy, namely the increased per capita consumption that economic
growth haj xiiiAt po$3thlf and which hai rcdpoDcaUy been the nimdus fordial growth- As demonstcjied by the pcoliEer^on of mass-produced gocds

coinlngftom thebctorlesof thelndusDiallzed world, we live In. a consume
society. In Europe, before the Industrial Revolution, per captla consumption

was lltdedlfferenlfromlhatof many of the less developed counoies today.

Now the dvcngc pci aplQ c^jn^umpoan of maLciidh dnd cticigy

\i

ibout

Forty tiiiKs greater In the North thui in the Icbs developed countries of theSouth. At iti extreme, the dtspariCy may be more than 1130:1. This Is not only areflccijon of soda]

tntusbce, but

an indicadon of the Increase

In

our

exp4oltation of Nature^

Compounding popubbon numbers with average pei capiu consumption
gives a tough indKaiionoI the [tJtalnv of human acitvlij.

We esiimjie ihanhis

may have Increased forty-fold during this century. Until now, consumption In
the rieh countries has been ihe niJin componejii of this burgeoning aciiiJity,
but in the coming decades, the demographic component will

becomeInaeasingly tmponani.
In this picture of resource consumpUon, we must point out the criminallywasteful use of human, matecial and energy resources u&ed for military

purposes, c^pcciiliy where such dctivitics aic a source of profit in ^onie

developed countries. It Is difficult to understand how the people of the wodd
have been willing to tolerate such waste in the face of hungei, poverty,
dl$casc and underdevelopment, which ihem$ctv« brfedwarmdviolcnce.it
ts

not easy to be precise as to the Tnagniiudc c^ Tcsotirce consumption for

military purposes, National financial cj^pendituitt oo defence do, howcrctf

give some indicanon. The recent world total appcats to have been about U5 tl
trillion In

ml terms, a four fold Increase since (he end of the Second World

War and a twenty five-fold escaladon since the beginning of the century.
Figures ilone do not convey die magnitude of wasWn

w some comparisons

may be useful. It has beenpoincedouCH for imiiance, diat fer many ^ears, themilitary expenditure of the world has been comparable with the combined

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

34 • The Pint GloJralRnsiUwoH
GNPs ai Hi the countries of Lann Amcnca and Africa together. Th^ annual
budget of UnlceP is cquivaleniiowhai :hc world spends on dc£cn« jn fourhours. The dimlraiioo of nnallpox under WHO^ guidajKC Kck Kn ycirs toachieve jrxlmit under US *ICCrn[J lion. Ic» than the cost of dcvdopfrig a jmall
ali'io-ilrmlsitler

We canonly hope diai dill wsitageoEcesoutces will now be
a i rcsuLc ^r cjticn&ivc di^umdmcnL— and xhn the

redijgcd considerably

uvlng^willbcputiocoruirucuveuse, such js sjtisfyiDg dke csienual needs ofthe undcrpunleged.

Constdcradon of resource consumpdcin antf Its disparities brlngj usro theconcept of s-usuin J ble development wh:ch ^^ ^^lejcty ^nd opnmisucally

expoundedIn

the M^ndtland Report' on environment and sustainable

developments [I Is doubtful that a sustainable global development can beachieved with the growth rate In the Indujtrlzcd countries Incrcasmg it thelatc juggotcd in the lepori.

A lusiaJnable' sodcty impTir^ thjc ihe society

isbased on a Iflngterm vision, in iha[ li must foresee the conseq aences of Its
diverse activities, and must ensure thai thc^ do not bleak the cycles oftiatwil: IE has to be a mdety of conservation[t

must avoid the adopfkin of

muiuaJLy Irreconcilable objectives. ^iulLy lE must be a axieiy of socl^i iusQce,
because great

dtehaimony
striving for.

.

disparities

of wealth or privilege will bceed destructive

In other words, the cotjccpt Is Utopian, but one that is well worth

A sustatnable society would never arise within a wotld economy

which relied a^Fididjf on the opccaticn of the ni^rhct forces* Important as
thc5c may be foe the malntenarue ol vitality and creative Innovation. As. wemerEEoncdcarilei.naarket forces respond unjqueiylo very short-tennslpitis

ind 3it [io sure gutde uj long teim coTisidfiataon^.

Having accepted the concept of sustaln^bility theie remains die question of,fbc generallevel

of material affluence that can be sustained, and the

between the rich and the poor — bodi within and between
countries— which can be LoLeiated, taking into account social justice as welhs
pjactlcaJ realiOcs. This is no pica for cidlttaridniam indeed collective vilun indlspaiities,

recent yeaii have preached a pseudo egaliiaiianism which has ineviiabl;^
clashed with the realities of human nature.
[n seeking a normative approach to future world

development En thepresent times of Eurbulence jnd change. It Is vital to discover whedier die
present levels of material prosperity

m the induiirialtied countries aie

compatible with global sustj in jbiirtyn or, moie Imponuidy, whether a world

economy driven by sQmulatecJ consumer demand can continue for long. This].

UnllnJ FJ^ncns (IntcnHborulj Clilldmi'i [EmngcrKf} Fund.

Woiid Hc^lili OrgJiiLZJiiork.
i. World Cornmbnn on EnvUonjnrnl ii\d EV^crcpm-nV. 19S7.

7

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal'Som^ Anas qfAiXte Cmam • 35
Is particularlyIs

pertinent In Fkc of peculation and t nvjconmenlal constmntM. Jlo[ couTK J conirovcrsiii qucsutxi which Jew, Ifan^n govetninents would

have the courage Co hce. But IC U die vjcal quuuan o£ ±c pifsfni, and will

evennully be forced on the polintians by The people.

consumfci^m

in

its

present form cannof

persitt,

We believe thaibeaiuenot onlyofconsujintt but Iw d«per r«sons of human vj|ij« The shallow ^juifaaion^of consumerism— kceplT!^ up wiih the |oneses';'1

am whatiown'— areincompactble with a decent human Ikte whkh needs i deep sense of scirrespea.

It

leads throughgteed to the pre^nt'hurnjn mablse'diemanifestations of which we will diescrlbe later.

Wc must sacs5 thai wc ire not aduoating zero cconomk: growth, indeed
we are convinced of the need to stimulate growth In the underdeveloped
South. But tn the Industrialized North, with the evolution of the poit
fnduEirul society, there seems to be a need Jot die growth of quality,

GiahaJ Wanmn/i ami in itfiplkatipm
In ihc present state of our know-ledge of the complex IntOiCGoni wjthui

die planetary ^y^tem, die grecnhouK effect appears to be the most Immtncnl
constraint on the extet^lon, or peihapa even on the survival of an economic

system which has served the ilcbcr coimcrtes well for 2 long time. The

consequences of die hcadjig upof the eardi's surface cannot yet be predictedwith sny degree of ptccIsIOTh but diCTe seems to be agreement as 10 ibe
general trends.

W*vE always thcwElit of dlnute as an «t Of God, It [Equlres an
emnnDus shift ti the way we think of the world and our pbce In H tourbdersiaruf ihat wehavpdfrGddy moved Into an

en In wfilch wfm

iclually responslbfe for managing cllmalk paranKters. Finally, shery&dijotnijslakn, we jrvcorrlrhgiorecogiuze that continued economic
prosperity b ri^ 10 ecoloekdl siew^rdshici, Therv b irsponsible profrim be mAiF In coring

fcrr The planet,

Poben RedfonIIn

Crwnliotiie Cijuioit^

The rise in temperature ciused by the doubling nfiheatTftospherlc carbon
dioxide IS estim^Eed to be cons^etably gie^fer than cyclical changes In
lempeiaiurc which have occurred in historical Umes, The greenhouse cffea

3. Founder. InsuiuK foi kaource ManiBcmcm.
Ir

Th? SundjncF Summit mn Global CUituIf Clungt (Sundancr, Utah, li^jAuteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal36 • TbeBm Gbbtti Rnviutton
wjlE not be uniform ovrr the surficf of ibr canh, but will be Ins it [heequator md much gruicr ai high bt^cudra. This wJlJ dJur [he dionul
gradicnrs of the planet and Is expected to con^id^ lably change the pattern ofpreclplation. modifving ihe various cllmatk lonc! and hence ibdi viability
for jgriculturc. [t^ exp^cEfd, foi fxampEp, dut m3)0T foodproducing drts^

}uth 1? the bread bowls t>f the American Middle West ^nd die Ukraine will

become aild, while other areas la the Noriii wiU become fcrtlk. Transitions
may oi may ncn t>c gradual, bm In eiihcr case world food security Is
threatened. It is also expected that theie will be moie changes In cLmalk:condiuons than In the piast, with greater ejitiemn tn temperature uid an

Inaeasc In die frequency c^ huttlcanes. Indeed, one of the greatest sources of
unceruintv in predicting local and global climate change is die effect that
global warmtng will have ondoud coverage. The monsoon cloud STSlem of

die troptes, for exunple, us main bcbsr of world climaTe r^guhdcin and it Is

known that It reacts slgm^icjndy Co small changes tti oceari lempciature^

A hirther consequence of the heating of the earth would be a rise in sea
level,

caused by the thermal expansion of the sea waters, and run- off fromland botne ice capj. This mighc m.can a general rise In the $ea Level of as muchas one metre- Icadlrig to tJicsubmerstori of lowlyltigrcglDrcsind exposure oflarger areas to the danger of flooding durtng sprang ades arvt steams. The

sea-level rise wmild.of couc^e, lake phce gradually over the years, so there

should be Hme For adjustment. The effect would virtually eliminate soinegroups of Islands and gready erode many important rtver deltas such as dioseof 1^ Nile and die Cangi^ wjih the dl^ticement of latgc populadon;^ It 1$
interesting tQnOite that during th^ past hundred year^ the global sea level has
.

risen

by JO-JO centimetres, while the mean surbce air tempcra.{ure has

jncrciff^ by ^bi^iut 0.?° Cel^lijj.

Thete are- of course, many measures which can be taken to deUy andbuffer earth- heating and cventuallyto brin^ii toa halt. The iundamentalflepIsthe reduction of carbon droxide emission by a massive reduction in the useof fossil fuels. The !9Sa Toronto Conference of scientists suggested that ic

would be necessary to rcducf carbcm dioxide f mission by jppEOKimately S>
per cent bythe year 2005. Atewvaluableycais of grace could be won throughaworldwide campaign of eiKigy conservation and e^ldctKy^ Some argue

persuasively thai an Interisive attack on energy efficiency could Itself solve theproblem, HowcveTn even Lf this accomphsbed, the long lead time in thedevelopment of the new cfficicni processes mikes ii unli^dy that exclusive
reliance on such a policy would enable control of the warming quickly
eruugh. Increasing energy efficiency arwl d>e conservation as well as thedevelopment of sources of soft energy, such as solar, wind, tidal

md

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Souk Arraa ofAjmU Concent • 37
gcochcrmal energy, must Im our ImmcdIatccaskJf the disruption of indusEiul
pioduction^d individiul hardship are lo be avoided.

Whal 6icn are our eneigy prtHpects^ While (here it i prtstfii glut of oil,
we aic nearlngthc end of the- Long period during which th\$ non renewable
resource h^ been die^p and plenuFul. Quit? apan, [ben, from the need toreduce its use as primary fuel because oi the greejlh(>uJe e^eCE, mcuurej
should be gradually Instituted to conserve dUsvitaJ resource a& a feed stock forthe petrochemtcal Industry which will be required indefmiccly for the

productiDnofplasdc£<pharm3CCuHcaU,dyesfu£&ind jhostoFodKEpioduco

now j^^umedco be essential Coal l^&tlUavaibble in plenty, built seems as if it\ibecoming too dangerous lo use because of rirth warnili^, imica the[cchnological pro^e^ currently taking place makes it posnbLeio considerablyllmtt 1i£ negative effects. Sottenergyalterrutives can no doubt be provided,

but at [he present rates of development they are unlikely to be avatiable In
sufficient qujntiOes In time to supplemenl the reduced supply of fossil fucb,Pie^ent fsdnutcs suggest that soft energy sources may piovtde somr S 10 pci

ccn( of world energy needs at the end of ihe century There appear [o be good.

prospects for Improvement In theeFflclerKy of photo- voltaic cells, but theprospecEof cheli covering vise ireas of land, which would (hen "be unusablefor other activities, k hardly attricdve.

Thr promise of nuclrar fusion ha^ b^en htid out for many yurs a theeventual u>lution to all our energy problems, l>eing virtually tnCKhaustible.
This may prove to be true, but its abundant availability seems to be as Ear off aswhen the Idea was first propounded. We certainly cannot lely on fusion lo fillthe ^p if and when earth- waimmg forces us lo reduce the use of fossil fuels.
It appears that we may have to prepare for a crttkalsiluatkmto arise a few
decades ahead, wfien weareciompelled by the dangers of earth- warming todrutlcally reduce our use of fossil fuels and have no alternative sources ofenergy in sight. In such dTC<imstane«> nuclear fiston eouid be the only
possibleway of partially alleviating die situation. Majiy of us have been

unfiappy for a long lime abotit the prollferstion ofnuclear power stations withtbcirobvtousdangers, as well AS rhfuecf the dLJfujal of nuclear waste, but we

DOW reluctandy admit that the use of coal and oil is probably more dangerous
to society than nuclear energy, bcciuse of the carbon dto:tide It produce.

There are, therefore, strong arguments for keeping the nuclear coition open
and for d^ development of fa^t breeder zeaciors. We must warn, however,that the adoption of this opuoTi could only partly provide a solution, it would

be ilmosL impo&slble to make available the capHal and i\v: cffon necessary tor
the conscrucdon of sufficient nuclear

powa ratJons In rime to match ihc

demand for energy caused by the reduction In the use of carbon -dioxide'

Copyrighted maierial33 • The First Giobai Rrvotiaion

The Empaa of global ivuming could be pjrtiojJuLjidlfFlculc bt tb« poorer
countries. Drvclopmenc d^n jnds cnecg^ bi Industt]' and agriculture as well
as forthe domadc rcquirfmfnu of increasing popubdore. The type ofsituation whichmighi uise Is lllustr^ifd dramdCicaUy by the pL^ns foi ihe

mdusttHlizauoti oE China ihe mosi populoui counti}i of the world. Thew are,ba^ondieuscof coal, of which the country hjs lirge le&civQ, ai>d would
even tudlly nuke China one of the icKJmgioffenders amongst ihccoujioles of
the world In teinu of catbon dioxide polluOon, ai a dine when indu$rtics In
therenof the world would besltlvlnglo drHtlcjUy reduce its emission. To
foKC China

or,

for

that maoer,

anydeveloping cotmtry to halt

lis

industtlallauon without compensauon would be morilly wrong, politicallydisastious, and practically Impouible, The Chinese ejipetts are well aware ofthis problem, but the dilemma is not easy to resolve.

Glohatjbtid ircurity

Production of sufficient food to niKCt the needs of a rapidly liKreasIng world

popuiaQon is obviously a matter of prtmaiy concern, Ln die early 1070s whenthe ^igj^ifit^^rKe of the population eicploslon Brs received general AEtentioA.

aurhorjuuve uoSces assured us dur it should be possible \a giow food for iworld populjticurajljrge as 30 billion. This IS probablvlechn]ca[]vpossLbTc, if
agriculture IS coiujdcrcd in isobuon. In the reai world, however, it has to beconsidered in the coniexi oi the pioblematiquc, because of constrainti due to(Xher facttffs. Ft^ c^tampk. In tbc long-tam cstinuics oi food ptoducDon
possibilities,itwas j^sumfd di^i wj[» shortages could be overcome bydesaliiution of brackt^ water

or of sea water Ehrough technologicalinnovacions, which the pressure of denund would conlure up, This^ look no

account of the enormous energy rcquiremenis which would be needfd forluch proce^e^H iioc orthcavaLlabtlJtyottlia^ energy.
Nevertheless, the increase m agricultural produicDon since the end of the

Seomd Woild W^r has been phenomenal ind has led to a sirLiatlon of
cojuidcrabie world surplus des[»Ee demographic growth. In 19S>, it wasestimated that world food production was sufEldentio provide some 19 percent more calorics than were necessary to provide :i reasonable diet for every

person on earth. Yet hunger and malnuintion persist in vast areas, worsenedby drought, famine and warhre. It seems, therefore, that the production ofenough food has little relevance to the persistence of hunger In ih* world.

The succcSiSoftSe Green Revolution in India in transforming the food situationfrom deficit to surplus, does noc seem ic have eliminated hunger in thatcountry, as mentioned earlier Tfie hungry jre the poor, unable to buy the

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

Somt Amu ofAcutt Conum tt 39
foodliulfxists.sochjthungfrinljrgtarusof iheworldLsbuld symplomof
ihr bdsic problfm al povcity.

[[ Is

trur [hat mor? pfopte are betng fed

adcquitely Kxliy dun In our base yeir of IMS. NevcrtbeJnSr In absoluteicmu, hunger conUnucs \a grow.

The coexistence of gliiE and famine seem^ intoJenble dnd gives rise to
problems In counrnci which hsv^ surplus food as w«IJ as In dw bod-dffldt
countrlcSr En the fonner, difficulties related to surplu^csn mb$idics ^nd theneeds of the Fumers are Foimldable. The largest food reserves available forexport exist In Nordi Anieilca, with die food -deficit counthes depending on
the success of hirvests In that counu;. Given the continuation of the piesent

pittcmi of jgrlcuTrural producUon. die miln deficit ams at dw end of the
century w[J] be the Middle East and North A.frlca. and sub Sahjran Africa
I

where a sbortfillof skxty millloniont of cfrrcai^ pci annum isoumatedr)&u[ will die present pattern! pcralsd The droughts of ]9UicntAhock wives

through die world food syaiem. Thedroughttn the United States appears tohave been die mosi severe ever recorded, with grain proiductjon falling bcSow
donnestic requirements for the frrst dme^ Food producikin In the US fell by 31

per cent and Ln Canada b^ If per cent. The deficits were made good bydrawing hconaccumubtedstodts. fn^m which the terms of export contracts
with about d hundred countries, dut depend on food Imports from North
America, were also sdtisfiedr This led to a dramatic fall In the lotaJ world foodreserves. The questlcm thus arises as to what would happen If sImJiar droughts

were to occur frequendy. It Is prematuretoattrlbutethelQ&S drought, which
also affected miny Other

pam of die w{3rld, to global vrarming.bQC die even!

was a clear warning of the vukerabifity of food production ta changes In
climate.

Unul aboui IWJ, Increase In agricultural production came mainly from theextension of larxl under culdvalton. Thereafter, a nnasslve Increase wasachieved

bj' die use of chemical fertlUzers. Thus agriculture no longer
depends solely on die availability of current solar energy, but ruw relies

considerably on fossil fuels— the stored solar energy of past aeons. It takes

approKlmaiely a ton of oil or Its equivalent in natural gas to produce a ton ofnin^ogenous fertilizer. Petroleum Is also necessary for the manufacture of

weed kitlers and pesticides whth are twed cxicnsively in modern agnculturc,
aswellasfortllLageand the operation of Irrigation pumps During the period
IWO-Sfi,the average per capta

consumption of fertilizers, rose from5

kilograms lo lit bllograms while at tbc same time die area per capita devoted
to the cultivation of cereals dropped from 0,24 hectare to 0.15 hectare. Thus,a crude sense, die gieaf Increase la worldmfood prod^Kdon represents dtc

conversion af oil Into edible cereals via the phoiosynthctic process.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal40 • The Firft Gi&hailUvoitutm
Today, agriculture In the tiadlQoiul sense hurdl; exists In many para of die
world, kha^ become j sector of industr)', relying on technoJo^taJinnovjcion

and modem mdnagccnentrncthodsJlkcanrathCflndij&tiidl sector. Uke^se,agriculture, as bodiiwerand producen oftnecgy. has to be CLsriEldeccd as an

clemcTHof the world energy syiCcm.FuCurcicardty of Oil, or the highcofl ofIt.

or coDstnlnts on iu use forced b-y global warnili^ would JnhlUt the

productkm of food and gready raise food prices at a time when the conOnuJng

growth of world popuhDon will result tn the demand For more and more
food, LI Is certainly desicable to reduce the energy Inpuc tn agriculture, andmuch hard thinking Js ncccisary to acccniln the cxian lo whkcb "otganit
farming" could saorfy the food rcqulrcnwnts of present arxl hiiure populanooi.

In MfGko, according to Infbrmatton provided by tlie Xoctilcaftl

FourxldClor, 19,000 kcal hdve lo \x used In order lo pul 2,200 kicaL offo^ on ;]k? Idlflc. From anoclier anglci Llie amount of e-;ier^OXISUined In irar^inrrlns rcDd^tuFfs In Mexico Is ^Imo^r equ^l CO ttie
total enefgy fHlui™! by ihe primary leaor For fcod producilor. The^M (hat ^Lidi situations ^rf wnskieieJ w be poWivf te, MiJ*iu«**yia ccffKCptual aberr^ilon.

Manfred Mas-NeeF
In "Human 'kile for Developmwf

CEPAUR-Djg Hdmmai^lold Foundaifon

Another potential danger to agrlcultunl sustalnabllliy is the wklcspreaddegradation and erosion of soil. Soil erosion Is a natural process, but when Its
rate exceeds du: of new soil CormatKinp there ts a decline In the fertility of theland, iris estimated thai this is the situation jn approximately )5 per cent of theworld's aoplajids, In drought scrKkcn nca. overpopulaicd icgion^ ^nd In

nuny regions such as the Sabcl bi Afhca, recent years have witnessed maigUul
anble land turning Into arid ratigeland and then to desert. In the caBe of theNorth American 'bread basket', unsuitablesoili

have been forced

into

production and good soils mined' to meet du: ever liKreasIng demand Ibi
loQti h^om QM^ide. Enormom imounis oEferdEe topsoil arc waal>cd away into

the rivets by rain every year all over the world.
Intensive agricultural practices, suchn diose of the Green Revolution,

demand a nnuch grejler use of waUi dun do the [j^dsTiOh^l rn(th<xls. AJ a
result, ground water leveU are tilling In many areas, causing doubt as to thelong-ierm9UStalnabl]lty of these f radices. Improved irrigation facilities haveprovided water In

many aild f^aces. ofien with spectacular resulis^ But

Irrigation has often led to the sallnailon of soils with the destruction of their

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Sotne Araa ofAcute Concern# 41

how fwt, only onff If mfnl In [he approaching crisis in glolul
wdter ivalbblllty. DomBtk: demand for water incrc^^s rapidly* 3s economic
growth IS achieved. In addition, many jndiujija] tedinoJoglcs require vjst
Frrtilky. "Hils is,anuunts of water. Acuic water problems are caused by the growth of thedtle$, especially those bciili in arid regioiu,

populations. Finally

unsuinablc for

large

urban

uv must irrcss again the immint^nr danger of thecontaminailon ot aqulFers by the difFu&ion of coxk: and radioactive wastes.
Special n^enUon should bcmadeof some of the dlstDiiions caused by the
intiltianon ot Western iifestyles and needs Into some of the developing

countries. In many places, and especially In the African cities, food habits havechanged compIeLely, partly beciuse of thrivaihbiEicy af famine relief Ecodsupplies or low ptkcd food imports from Western countries. Thus bread has

become popular in areas whkh are unsuitable foi wheat farming, and rice ji
greadyin

Javour despite the high water needs foi

its

culQvaiiDn.

This

tendency is much to the detriment of traditjoraal food crops and has reduced
the IncenOve for local farmeis to inacasc ihdr production of these crops

while the productton of plantation crops in continuation of die ptacticcs ofcol<inlal times is useful in earning foreign eiichange, it is obviously unwise If

carried to excess

m counlnes with Insufficient food for domestic consumption.

This is especially the case where large areas are devoted to the growing ofc^nlc feeds for uk in die fwd atuntcd West,

The long-term consequencesofdemographic changeareincKtrrcably

linked with future world development and harmony. The industrializedcounities wjdi chelr ageing populations should go

mainralning living

standards

widi

areduced worksome way co^^rds
force,

because of

automaDon and the considerable Increase In productivity that it will generaieHowever, Ehe substantial Inrrnsp in chf number of eldnly people will be agreat burden on the pension funds and on the health and welfare systems.

Someof these countries are turning to pro-natalistpoUcles, bul,asyet< have
met with litde success. Considerable structural adiustments will have to bemade in these coui^uies because ofdie shrinking numbers in the educational
insciutlons and the need for the exiensicn of tnealih and welfaif scEvices fortheelderly,theLatterexpense compensated

for

pardy

by

reducedexpenditure on child health care. Although only a small prt)portit>ii of the
population will be within the formal teaming system, great effon^ will have to

be made ta improve its quality: success in the post- industrial society will
dqpciKl critically on the quality of human resource development. Flexible

and selective means will have to be found for lateretirement soas tomake

Auteursrec Intel ijk beschermd materiaal42 • The Firtt Giobal Revolution
available the skills af iMtt people sUll capable of conoibuting slgnlRcandy tosociciy. The agc-imbaLince' pfoblem can be legaided as a sign of success In

family pbnnlng.

advance.

In

\i Is

a temporary

phenomenon and can be planned \ox In

Sweden, wheie these problems M/cre hrsi recognized, thesiluiEton Is now jn controL

For ihe IcH developed countries, the problems are quite liie rcversf In.

most inscances, the growth of the cconom7 and the climinaiion of poverty
will have to be the nuLn Dbjectivn of developing economics. Thks means 3

lype of growth that respeo; and I; huilt on ihe tradirtonal culture rather thanbeing a slavish imliauon of the mdEcriallsigrawifaoi ifat North, which would
inevitably induce die sdrtiemaldisc from which ihcindumiallzedcountilcs

now suffer. Too great an Inaease in the population can be a fa ul amwralnton
development,[nmany cases already, development plans are unrealistic

because of Insufltclem attenlton being given to this factor.
Here, however,

we are more concerned about the progression of theNorth $9uih demogiiphic dispaiiCn, By dx middle of die next century,
inhabitants of the presendy Industrialized countries will consdtuce well under!2Dpe[cenlof the world population. Isllfeaalblechacin the future, the world-^ill

consist of i ghetto of rich nations, ^lAud with sophisticated weapam,

prorecctng themselves against the vast multitudes of hungry, uneducated,

unemployed and mgry people

outside?

Such a scenar]o, whichjsasuppostuon based on present trends. Is unlikely. World events which are
unforeseeable now will surely intervene. For example, by th^t Gme, several

ku devcbpcd countries will vo doubt poucu [belt own nucle^E weapons.
It Ls

more likely that populaoon pressures, the lack of opportunkdes andconditions of tyranny and oppression will have generated waves of migration

rotheNcinhandthe West, which will be Impossible ro contain. Our successors
are likely to see mass mLgrstions on jn unprecedented sciie. Such movements

have dlmdy begun, with thebut people' migjating f^oiti the Fat £a^.

Mexicans slipping over the border into the United States, and Asians andAfricans migrating to Europe. Ii Is not difficult to Imagine at a future date,innumerable hungry and desperate Immigrants landing m their boats on thenorthern shoresoftheMcdlteriancan. Similarly, massive migration from Latin

America ro the Unlred Srates Is to be expected, while populaUon pressure m

Chinamay cause spillovers Into empty Siberia. As we have already suggested,
the rising of the sea level as a result of the greenhouse effect could greatly
increase mi^Dori pressures, for example In Bangladesh and Bgypt.

k IS therefore urgently lequiieJ that the economic conditions In the poor
countries arc improved, and thai at the sarne time effective means of
population connoE jre Introduced.

We would like ro stress that leduaions in

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd inatenaal

Some Areas t^Acule Cfmam * 43
development oF > wl&c and cooperative
character, rather dun d mere humaniaridn g«<uf« ^uJd be o£ fundamenal
economic dispaiicy and did

impoTUnceto

0:1

the rich countries in theirown inierest^ Thi^ is hardly

understood by the general public In die Industrialized a>iintrlesjnd, until It is,
tb? pollnduisare unlikely tout. Heveriheless, it li clear that no nKdsures wlU

dhnivcly stop the migrstion trends. This could induce a sharp rise In
defensive ridnn in ttv lecelving oHuiinn and encouiage ihe emetgence t^iseries of tigbiwkngdictacon swept In by popular vote. Such situations rmnsi

not be allowed 10 develop.

IiIs

therefore very Impoztai^t, to prepare thepopulations of die rich counules to Kcepc this- reality.

The- In/itrmatum SoctcPy

The emergence of the Inforrnatlon or Post-Cndustrlal Scxiiety has been oneof the main agents of planetary change^

If It is wisely

guided and It's problems

are tackled in Cme, this development can make possible many irnpiovt^mcnCi
Ln

the hiim^n randioon.

mictoelectronics andWe have already dfKrlbed the developmfni: of

how its appJicjEion^ are penetrating ev^ry aspect ofdomestic and Industrial life. Here we are concerned with its economic, socialand political consequences.
The informatlOTL society ts based on developments which toe* place mainlyinthe sciendfic arxl industrial lahoratorles of the countries of the Npith;inevitably the revolutionary apphcaoons of microelectronics have flooded, themarkets of the industrialized countries. Our discussion of the consequences,thetefore, has a iliOngly NOrlheirl' flavour. Microelectronics have not yet

made much of an impact in the developing counules, Nevertheless, these
innovations ate of great significance for the development of the South.

development of mtcroelecironlcs brought about by theinvention of the silicon chip, which can contain millions of integrated circuits,

The

rapid

look pbce mainly in the Untied States and In Japan. Iti the former couriDy.

most of the research and development was undertaken in the laboiatoilcs ofrelatively snull, sophlsocated firms [Silicon Valley) under ccv^tracts from the

US defence department and space agency. In japan, it was made possible bycooperation between the large electrical enterprises and die government as

parEofanlmaginativclong term strategy ThcEuropcanscntcred dicfjeldata
later stage and are making great, but possibly Insufficient efforts to catch up-

Compeiitton in this area is particularly fierce,
Irmust be stressed at the outset that the coming of the post industrial

society does not mean that products In dally use, including those of heavy
indusn-y,

will

becomelessnecessaryInfuture, assome facik publicstatements seem to Imply. Those engaged In handling informaiHin in the

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal44 • rfe Frni Global IlivolHtum
Fu lure will sUlE require houuiig, knives and forks and pbcci. a5 well a$ food on

their plates. There wlllpiobably be less people commudngH asmiichoflhc

work will l>e done ^chome on computers. They will probably asplte to the
independence given by the auUjmobllCp but, even should ca[3 be scaicc andFuel expensive, public iranspoTt will nccc^liK (hcm^niiFactuK oF buscfi

oalns and ships. In die InFormaiion socletv. Industry will ^nil flourish, but ITS
products will be provided by a much smaller pioporCon of the woikForee

than

in

The heyday of ih* 1ndu«rial eta,

Tht tna^ority will be in the

InFormadcHi-handlmg Industries jnd the service sector, 3 trend that i& alreadywell established.

Technological development has had a sirong Influence on the nature andbehaviour of society ever since die shaping of die first film or bone tools The.

type oF society we jre living in today is the reiuIiaFthf Industrial RcvQluQonp

and the advanced lechnologies, which are aJready modifying lifestyles andctiCadng new occupations,promisemay have an even greater eFfect The centralof the information

through thesodctywidespread

microelectronic devices In Industry and the service sector,

manpower pioduciiviiy.
ret^ulrcmcnis of sftts

use ofinacascd^uLd become posslhir to provide all ihr

country— Including dxjse of

agriculture, defencen health,industrial

pioducOonH

educadon and wcJEare— and ^n acceptable

standard of living for everyone with only a fracOon oF the physial effort

expended today. No country will be able to Ignore che$e devcEoprrtent^ orslow down their acrualizadcm. Todoso would mean forgoing iheir potential
beneflu, as well a» risking economic losses In InteirutlonaE rrade. But theextent, depth and unforeseeable social consequences of these developments

make it nwasary ro look well beyond the present d«ade in in iiiemp toensure their expbiDbon lot the maximum benefit to all. If diis Is not done
and developments are planned merely on the basis of medium term gains andnarrow vested Interest, governments will try to absorb social artd otherconsequences by marginal adjustments of eTisflng social models and policies

when they become acute. It would
be ttrcsponsible to leave such developments, wbch aaj be of fijndamental
Id jn ati^mpt to eliminate crisis ^LtuaEions

importance to liie bealiii of society, exclusively to the operadon of the market
forces with their Inevitably short' term signals.
[Iisnot passibleat this stage

to predict liv consequences of theseicchnologial mnovadons with any accuiicy, but some trends are alreadyvisible^ [nthe Informadon society, interdependence between counoies will

increase through the Immediate visibility of infoimaOon

It

will

lead to z

greater complexity of InsniuHons and societies. It could enable the acquisldc^of ah^ degree of power jnd

assist In the decision-

makmg process, but it

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

Sfmif Arras ofArute

Cmam • 45

couJd fqually wtll help unscrupulous leaders lo consolidate powerlor

ibemselwi. There will be the means, far more effccOvcthan the best efibnsof secret police, for the electronic control of everyone's acDvidcs by'Big

Brother' dictators and societies.

TedinoLogIca] developments tend to increase the vulnerability of sodety

and this Is piniculaHyso In the cue of decfrotilf devif«. Power ranons, oil
refineries, nuclear iCKtors. communicsUor centres- banking networks andddta banks all have nerve centres which are of relatively easy access to thosewith the intent of sabotage or political terrorism; these activities are themselves

becoming more dangerous

as

more

available. A computer 'virus'

an spread rapidly through large systems jnd

totally disrupt their operation J.

An expen electronic saboKur could pcnenate

sophisticatedtechniques

becomeand hopelessly disrupt the whole International banking, network

The deeper soclaS and psychological consequences of die informauonsociety are still more difficuli to discern, in a strongly technology based
cuIlutc, d>ert will always be t dichotomy beween d>:« who undcnisnd lis
wotrkjngs ar^d those

who merely press d)e buttons, it is, of course, notnecessary to understand electronic theory in order to en)oy leleviiion. But

when the use of die miaoprocessor spreads lo makeblack boxa' out ofnearly all the equipment and anelacls of life, the sophisticated know-how of
the tewp who invent and design the new machines and create the »ttwarcp

wemjvbefaced with a sharp distmctlon between the mirKirlty who kiHW diid ihc
majority who do not know. The emergence of a priesthood of scicnusis,
will havesoaredbeyondfhecomprehemicfliofthemajorlty. Thenlechnologlsu ^d rechnociats is hardly desirable, and Its prevencton must be

one of the obfectives of educational reform.

We come now to theareaof controversy that dorrunates the discussion oftheInformation

namely the problem of employment^ The

society,attainment of full empiaymFm is still seen as a ma^or economic and iocal
goal, but in Its consideration, the influence of autorri^CLon ^nd tedinologlcaichange is seldom given much weight-

There arc those who argue thai the future course of informatbn
technology and the auiomatlofi It makes possible will follow the frertds set by
earlier innovations

m creating new products, new indusQies. new markets

and hence generating economic growthr This will provide replacement

empbymeni

for

those

laid

off

by

Industries

withshrinkinglabourrequirements. CXhcis feef that the situation is ioherendy different from earlier
technological developments and that we are likely to see econoni^kc growth1

SccSctuff jndFrfcdncha, lOS?

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal.

46 • The Fe^ CioJjaJ Rnvlutum
wiihour iubsutiu^i pb cteauon,
Thl& qucstkin must be considered, not onJy with tcgard lo poj^blf jab

redundandcs, but tUo to (he general mahise oF induscrtd socictic^ In theindustrialized countries, tainumerable indlvldujls find hnlc ^aii^facdcei In (heirwork, even though diey hav« been liberated from the crude siruggie forexliience by the bounbtt of the wdEire saw. Tbttc people often give In toa

soueofworthressnes^ -afeeltngoEbelrgu^ele^^losodctyandtadi^msclvn.
Dignity, selF-re&pect ^nd a sens? of purposf are hnK psychologicat needs

which aie dl^uh

and urban mllJeu andthis malaise ^^uld spread If Large scale unemployment were to arlsc^[| Is

to provide In the Industrial

pvldmt that extensive automation in (^ manuiaciunng indum^ isboi^nd to cause many redundancies, eEpecially -of unskilled manual workersIt Is

equally clear that as the new icchnoLogle? spread, new Indusnin will

sppear. providing new jobs,

many of which will demand new skills. Thebalance between these two movements Is the cridcsl question. Over a long
period H docs seem CCTtaiPh hQwcvcTj that the labour force required for theb< greatly reduced In size unless newmarkets can be found. Markets for many goods In the affluent pans of theefficient r^^eracion of industry will

woi-ld are ipproachii^ saturation leveh, so substantial expansion can onl^ heeipected if the population o( the developing legions can pniuide a mass

marketfor

capitaland consumer goods.

This,

unfortunately,

seems

improbable in the near future.

One argument in favour of automation holds that die massLve numbers of
redundant woikci^ from m^nufjouilng induscilcs would be mopped up by
an expanding service sector.

The analogy here is wiiii the decline in the

proportion of the active workforce engaged In agriculturem (he advanced

countries lo as low as 4 per cent over the last two centuries. This was the resultof i decrease in manpower employed on farms due to mechaniiation

migration from die land did not cause

But

unemployment as chc growing

Industrial secrorwasablecoabsorb the rural unemployed. Historical analogies

can be misleading when the circumstances are not ejiact parallels and that isthe case with the pre5cn( transition, because industrial and service sectors areundergoing automation simultaneously. Itisver^Lmprobablc that the labour
force laid off by industry can be absorbed by the service sector as it exists

today Rather, n die information society evolves, we must expect to see a
gradualcoming together of productive ard

servicefunctionsandarombinarion of these m thf future occupatnns of the average Lndiuidual

Concepts of employment, unemployment, underemployment and leisureare heavy with moral and historical values involving the work ethic, and someof these words ate used peioraiivcly

When large numbers of people are no

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Samt Areas ttfAdivte Cotifon • 47
longtr TpqulTsJ by mdustry^noc as 3 con^qucEtcrot cyclical [luciiudoii&. but

becauic sockcy demands and tcchnolc^y makc^ possible very high lewis of

znuipcwcr productivttjp (h?n ^^se mqia\ and bi^toiical values lose iheir
mdldanal meanings, [i Is suggeited thai, Inihefuiure, the cblct concern of
the individual may be leu unm^lo^cnt as we have undersiood lE in the pasin

but 4(ciqutUH

the Uigetinwm^. It will KmirAj influde time speni In

paiticipaOng In die economic activities oF sodety, for which cich individual
will be idcquatcly paid, but will also consist of" activities, sclf-cbosen, which
will provide personal fulfillment. Thus ilie occupabon of die individual will

hdv«

to

be seena^includlrbg only d small propoitlon of inCellectuaL or

xn&iuomi xnx. Prc&utnably this miJnoccupation aIII cake up a much smaller pan of life plater entry into the wofk
ptoducuvc ^mpioyment

force,

inthesbotwi working bourSnearliei retirement, peiiods off for furthci

education arxl reorientation,] and together with one or several subsidiaryoccupations or crafts— eduattonaln sodaL utistlc or sporting— shmtid piovlde

Individuib wldi enough work to intcrot ihcm and enoiigh. Icliurc forrelaxation.

Such a stiuatlon will not develop on Its own. If thousands of workers,

unemployed andthey will be doomed toespecially thousands of young people. Etnd themselvesburdened with a seemingly endlessleisure,frusQitkjn. Their tcz dmc will be lihen up ai best wtih cclcvis^ viewing

and pUyIng football More often the pollution otldsure wUl be expressed In'

alcoholism, drug addiction, hooliganism and delinquency. A new approdch
will have to l>e oeaied by sodecy Itself and will involve extensive changes inthe educatioitai &ynem and In the disnributjon of wealth.

The above scenario is not is- Impobable or as exaggerated as it may seem atfirst sight. If automation in offices and factories

does Indeed create Intractableprobierru of unemployment, and if the labour unions accept that they cannot

fpjra the pfOgi«s& of juiomadon in the face of imematlonjl compeiitEon.
negotiations will follow, resulting In an equitable distribution of work widi

shorter hours, and the provision of other meani of occupation. Measures will

have to be talen to provide sodally desirable occupations on a voluntary basis.
This will make the Increasing ejttent of free lime bolh creative and satisfying,arvl [ransfotintheiniormaLion society 3I1L0 [he occup^uon^l society. Thus theIndusn^lzed world would be eniermg the golden age in which machines
will work form rather than dommate ua.

This rosy picture of what could happen in die North Is ^r froEn teallzatton
In the South, The developing countries are, indeed, beginning to benefit fromtherecentspreadcommunications.

of theIncludingappUcattons of
[hose

diat

use

microelectronics.
satelhte

links,

Electronicarealready

Auteursrec Intel ijk beschermd materiaal

48 • The Fint Giohal Eivoluatm
connecting the majn centres of the <i«vebpJTiEfDuniTiKH'irh ^t^e^rrhf
industrialized countries, alrhough Inirmj] communKution n? cworb Mt ui

mosi cases tudimcntaiy as a consequence of poveny.
Ukewj&c, computcEs Jic gndiully Filtering In, noc only as a part of the
global network,a In the case of airline bookings, but also in tht offices ofgovernmcnis and cnterprljcs. Howcvan although the advanced icchnokigtci
atr beginning lo appear In the Industries of ccnuntrkes such as India, BtulL and

MEXICO, they hatdly exist In the pooi-er developing countrlei^ Thj& Is Indeed acidsiic

example of how technological innovaOons Inevlublf favour thosecounnles that aie already advanced to the reladve dctrlmeni of those at an
rarlier suge, fn the absence of a subaiandal Indusitlal Inftascruaurc andfacltJTtcs

for using^lence and technology, pcnetra-tioa of the advanced

fechnologjo Is ncccsarily vcty sbw.
It

has

Iwen suggested that rapid development in the South might beachieved by leap fi oggtng over the traditional stage of IndusQiallzadcsn byucuratlng the developing coiintnes with computers.

Wc fccilihat

SUCh anapproach is undesirable. Unemployment and underemployment are rife In
thrse countries. The advanced lechnotoglcs are noc UbouT-mtcnslvc andwould create few iobs- They are. instead, capital-intensive and capital is a
scarce commodity In the South- Further, as these technologies are owEied by
the corporations of the North, such a scheme would Induce a deep seatedtechnologicalcolonialism.

Nevertheless,paitnership

betweentheindustrialized and die developing ccunnlcs must be gteady encouraged tom^ke sure that the lanet jre not fenced to indusnialize, leading [o ibe
establishment of obsolete ar^ uncompetitive economies.

The pnablems oE environment, energy. popuUtiora. food availability anddevelopment form an imcrpcncttddng complex within the probleniuTiquc
which IS the source of present uncertainty about our future. Theimponanceof the interactions is such that it would make liitlc sense to tackle each of dieic
elements separately, Jt Is, however, beyond the capabilities of the nadon statelo

do otherwise. Thus what Is needed Is a simultaneous amck on all (heelements within a cwfdinaKd wofM sintcgy. The succch or failured theflrstglobal revoluttondepcndsessendallyonthls.Theconfllcts of the coming

years will irlse out of this complex of issues, Sotncof these have already been

mendoned. We jhall only add oncothet example In relation to increasing
scarcity of water. Some UNEP {United Nations Environmental Programme)
officials foresee the possibility of tntemal disputes

wjdi regard to the use ofwater of eighteen different elvers. An acute caic Is that of the itomlnation by

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

StffBi Arcai ofAtiule

Comem * 49

Turkty of ihr b«dwattrs of ihr Euphralps on which jII of S^rla and a pjic of
Iraq depend. Confltcis over these waters could very easily ddd one

imre

dangerous complication lo th^ Middle £^^1 situation.

These mancrs arc bdng discussed wparatcij' and scvcrall;^ cvcTTwherc,
Conferences on earth^warmlng and on envliorunencal Issues- in general arecommon. Heads of suie discuss OBOoe layer det^etton and the greenhouseeffat. hui 3s yei no poliDol leader has had ihe courage lo clearly ourJlw theconsequences,

nor

Is

dicrc

iny cxptcssed acknou/ledgemeni of die

tntcracilon oEcnvlronmcnQl issues and ibc need for a compichcmlve attack.
Political action is llkel;^ to Follow only from the Impassioned demands of an

Informed public.

3.

The International Mismanagement of the
Worid Economy

Among the nain uas of concern, the fipld changes Jn the world economy
deserve special attcndon. This chapter provlda a brief and selective overview
of the main Issues afFecdng the world

economy today, Eocus^ed on Xey

countiks and groups of counain. USA Jdpan, the EuEopean Cocnmunlty the,,

devejopinf; counoies, and easternmd

central Europe.

THE UNrrm ^'atts c# ak^rica

Thai »« ndlally dldermt ?letv& about the state of the US ecooomy,
Influenced by the relive importance given Co different aspects of a complex

simabon. This eKpLdins in part why Ir has been so dlffkuJt for them to achieve
action on problems, even those which are widely accepted to be sezjous ones

such as the budget defldt.

At fliHH tbcic ippcai to be many posidvc ekmenti: ihc U5 economy' hasbeengrowlng^leadilyforseveiiyears, now at an annual n[e of around 2.fl per
cent. Mllllt>ns of |obs hive been created, and unemployment [^.2 per cent]and Inflabon (4.^ pet cent) are low, CNPpci capita \i around USS 20,000, andthe economy Is tunning near capadry. at the nic

d ^4.U trillion pet year

Ftnm an decCOTal poini of vtew, dils Is alttwac an idcaT situation.
However there IS deep ct^Kem diroughout the world —and In the United.

StatesItself— about the conditions

achieved,

under whichthl^ aduatichn has

been

and about wbethei k can be sustained. For our purposes, theseconcerns can be grouped around the following four main issues^

1

Tlv following Bgurts lix the Unncd Sam and |ipA air ofbdal IWO bguro.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

DmoCi^ li^iEfJia. In spiif oh fptatnJ efforts jradinlerTuEionjlcommilmmt^.
dicafinual US budgfld^ftcttcondnupsalaboull 14D billion. Thir cumulativecEtcct oE dils annual deficit is now 3 national dfbt approaching t ) trIllloD,

having ns^n from jpproKimately 1 900 billion In lOSi. Entcrat paymrnts on

dfbi iK now a major jErm m the budgi^t, and ihac uc. of coiine,

this

iffcaed by increji« in inwrest iJies. In pjrallel with the growth of niDoiuldcbi, Indebitdn^ss has also incrcafcd

oihcc ^mon oi de cconamy—

inbods^hold^H business and banking. Business debt is some $0 per ceni higher[hacinoimal in relation to CNP. while majoi banks aie seriously affected,

paitty rhiou^ leveraged bui^ouLs and Third World katm.
}ii!inatma\ [ndc^uinea. Over (he span oF a Itw yens, the United Siatei hatceased CO be the weald's largest ctedlcor, and become die world's largest
debtor. Th^ddldlDiicurrmc account is jpprojiiniAiely 1120 billion per ycit,

md rhexcujTiulated eitemal debc

Isover i^ btUkm andrising sreadJl;, The[MP expects dut die cuirem account deficit MW worsen again neit yeai, toaround 1 140 blllkin. The dollar has weakened In the last few yearsn and the US
Ititcmal defkltn coupled with the tzade dchciin contiibuies to that process.

The UnlKd snm payi \a 'ci«ira\ debc' In US dollais, which c^cnttallymeans that 11 forces aedltors to accept a ojtterK^ that ts steadily weakening.
This rnay be good for US expotts, but Is damaging 10 hotden of US assettn and Is
also damaging lo countries ihai earn 3 large propottitfff of chei^ fordgn
exchange from exports of goods and services to the US- In addition, fof die
first time since l^A. the second quarter of 1Q££ showed a deficit on trade In
services, thus adding to the payments needed lo service this international

debt.

Such imbalances areafactof Intern^tionaTeconomicllfe. bii[ the scale andrate of growth of che

US current jccounl

deficit li

impreceden[ed.

A^ubatjntjdl reorient^Lioii ol the US economy Vii\\ be nccctsu]^ to ratieci il,and uEtimatety, 10 create a level of sutplus tieeijed to service Its accumulated,International obTlgaEkms which could exceed S 1 trilbon,

Thus the trade defldl U In fact a very serious problem. However, It Is
Importanitsrecogrrlzethailt Isltselfa symptom of other problems. Eta primecauses ire the subject of heiicd debates For some UoKh ir was constdcrwl tobe primarily the resuJt of a strong dollar. However, after the Plazj agreement

and the decline of the dollar, its primary cause was considered to be an'unlevel pbying field, or unfair practices by US trading paiinen, pantcuLarly

the Japanese

^

It Is

now tncreasinglf lecc^nized that the trade defldtis mainly

the Jesuit of excess consumpijon in USA» flnaiKcd by breign borrowmgs, dnd
a decline In the compel! liveness of American goods and services.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

52• The Fmt Global Repf^tttien

EihiCJiQiifl,m^SKlaTaHd P%]fid iKfiBfFnufvrf. There ts a growing reall^tiCFn In theUniicd SaK5 [hai ihc economic growih whtch made American? fef goodI

aboui ihcinsclvc^, has bc^n accompanied by ihf accumul^Eion of seriouj
socialwd phy«oL probiem$. While the drug pcoblem

isthe focus of public

coocctn, there U a mbstandal agenda of problems yet to be soived. Sf^ne{dicK, whkfa will icquEie actentkin and cxpendltutc In due course are
impiovlng educailDn to meet the needs of a compctnivc econotn^p problemsof urban poverty *rd. growing racial ieTislO[i, hcallh CWC, a dcaylng physicalInfrastruciiire and environmencal ptoblems. io:^ic and nuclear pollunon.

andso on>T^ SronVi Tnp, One af the main elements which deietnnines die bilanclngot
the US budget is defence expenditure, which stands atiround U^S $co bii lion

per year, or 7 per cent of the US'CNP. A substantial pact of this expendnure
serves to support the strategic oblectJves of the tInJted States anditsalliesdiroughout the world. Now that USA is facing ccfmomic dlffnulties, andconipedng bead on with councies whose Kcurity it guarantees, thcec md}arqueftk^ns h»ve arisen^

USA afford to devote sudi enormous financial and humanlesouices to Jts own miliary security at a time when urgmt economic a^soclj] problems threaten IQ future? StcocA. why *haijld USA continue to
expend ic^urcei to Improve the security ol western Europe and [apantwhichspcndsonlysllghtty mote than! pel cent of Its GNP on defence] now
that d>ey are in a posmon to afford more substantial defence cxpcndituiesFirst,

candiemselves'

Tiiird.

the foriy year confionaiion wldi the Soviet Union has

vimuilycndcd, [[dajnoianoppomitlH^toreduccdefenceenpendlmteanduse the roooirccs thus set free to suengLhen the competitive base of die US

economy and tackle accumulated sodaL and environmental pn^blemsr
There arc no easy answers to these questions The? demonsdate thedegree to which economic and secarity issues are totcrlinked, A seriousdelHie Is now in pcogiess, espeoally after the Culf War, Ibcussed on theunderlying question of what constliuCes real secuiHy for the United States in
the modem world, [tisnolonger slm ply a matter of miUiaiy power it must

jurdy consist ofthe need ro maintain the economic and technological strengthof the counity, its political influence in the worldn aid the health of lis
rclauons with its allies. In the longer term, CLTnsideratlons of global energy,

environment, population and development are aUo components of real US
secuitty.

Thus, thr moit powerful and wealthy economy in the world is confronang
seriousproblems

todajr,with the prospect of funiier substaooal andAuteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

MismoMOStment t^the Worid Eofruflny • 53
Innopjble dtnunds on i(s rcsourcps In thr fuiuic, [n die absence of new
poJicics, the dcllau will rcrciajn high, and die accumulatimi of dcbi willcontinue. Sud) d jituaDoTi, thcou^ ptorcciioriiun and rrade win, voladllry of

exchange rites jnd loss of canfidenC'e. wlU threaten woiLd Dade ztA diemonetary systems on whtch economic growth depends. It will become znore
and more difficult re gefwtaw dLSfwcioraTv resources, even for priOiTtty
purpose; such as thewu on drugs, d-ie improvement of education, or thesQmulatkon of research, development and invesuneni. The primary catu« ofthe probFems will thtrefote remain unre^lved.

WhaicvecpioposihmaybcnijdefoithelntematkinaTmanagemenlofdic
world economy m die tuiure
deficit,ii

ihou^d be j prior condiUon [tut dK budget

and trsdelmbalances which confront the U^ecofwmy today must be

corrected.

Otherwtv. these

will

be

a constantsource of Insability andtension, and a threan to world trade and monciary lystems. They will a^&ollmtt the effectiveneu of die United States in world affairs at a time when tts
full participation wtll

be bidly needed,lAPAN

The most significant shift in the balance of world economic power in recent
yem has hern ifvemergeiveoi japan as an economrc superpower. The scaleand :pecd of diis thjnge is nmcLlmc^ lutd Lc comprehend, f torn LQ!^ to i^^japan's total nai^nal asKis ruse from U51 19,6 triLlkm lo 141.7 trillion. During
ih1s

same three year period, die total national assets of the United Statesciimbcd from LESS 30.6 trilliara to S 16. .2 trillion.

C^CD' estimates that the japineie &uiplus v/ill be S ^S billion In 1900. t V
billion In

IW], and% Mt bllLton In

im?. In comparison, die US deficit isestlnuted to come down from 1 IID billion In 14A9 to 1 60 billion
International assets of Lapan may well reach 1

The B^k of l^pjn

IS1m 1992. The(billon in the mtd-mnedeir

Eiow rrspoci^ible for die world's brsest cash lekcrves, ofappTOximatcLy USS SQ billion. As an acior in the world economic system. It isestimated that between January 1086 and |une 1087 the Baoik of ^apan spent t S7
blllkin 10 fotcc the decline of the dollat. Funhcr, japan is

now the largest

proYldciofdcvelopmenia^sisiarccat i 10 billion annually, and iarhc second
largeitcooirlbucoriomulalattialltudtudonsfticha&dicWoildl^nkanddic
Internationa] Monetaty Fund.

lapanhas been providrng a large part ofthefu^s required each month tofinajice the US budget deficit through the purchase of Tica^iiry bonds ai therate of about S 10 billion per month. In addition, Japanese coipoiaiiom ate

B

Oipmann foi European CooperaDon jnd DevclotNiKni

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

54 • Tbf Brti GioM Brvoiuam
inveitmg in USA -tor example Son^fPCfzitly purchased Columbia P)aurcfl
FnlcrtJinmeni for S 5.4 billionr In 1953. japincs? inwiesls bought real

miK

worth 1 16.5 billion, and invested nculyl 13 biLlkm In virknu companies. Eni\\.

\rpjin accounted tor jlmo^t 19 percent of US c jpju inflow In I9S7.
I

The kjng-[crm tnutesi irnzi hivi: iiicn ^haiply in japan, &om 4.8 jper centin ]«fi*ioafoicaii7,'9pcr cent ]nl5Ql and IWJ.whilf US rjifs have remained
broadly sobic it a^ouTkd B J pet cent and ait now lower In teal leims than ia
Japan-Oncrcasc^iscbcdctCTmlnatloiiortheBankofldpuitow-jtidbdck ihc
wild InHiticxi of issct pnc« while were siif^-jrting the cxpan^on of bankknduig.
japan has consistently errhphaMzed te^atch and dcvelopnxnt, applied

mainly [onunofaciuring in the civilian scCLoi. The pioporUon of japjnsGNP
applied 10 R and Dbualnv?^ doubled In Ten ytan, from 2 per cent In 19S0, toabout J.5 per cent today. As an example of its vigorous technology. J^pf)
introduces each year as many industifal lobcis a^ the rest of the worldcombined.

The political and economic system of japan ha$ twice demonstrated Its
ability to igjce on new objectives and Co teof^t ihe whole e<Dnoiny in aveiT5borttlme;fintinresponielC)lheoiUhwkofl97*,iftdmotet«:ertly,mrndc surpluses under the pcessaie ol iti trading
partners. Japan has begun to reorient its economy so js to inciedx domcsuc

aneflbit Co

teduce1t$

consumption'
This ability to reach a oanscnsui. and to ^chJcve iciui] change m theoricnution of the econocny li iu enormous asset fw japin In adapting to theincreasing pace of change In die imcnutiDnal etonomy. Fmancial Institutia™.

cotporaaonSn

unions,educadcm andtheresearchsystems,andthegovemmenlitself— all seem to be able (o oichestr ate ttieitefbrts to achieve
broad naOonal goals. This capacity to jdjpi, coupled with then presets vast
finatKlal ic»ur«s, d dyrnmic icscatch and development system

quality education system

would sfem

to,and a highguarantee an even stronger

economic standing for japan In the coming years.

Howevetn In sp(te of this tremendous strength, there arc reasonscoEicemn not mereBy thefragilEty

foroE Hading relations and the changing

stfuctureof the Japanese papulation ^whichbythe year J020 will have ^4 percent ofits population over the age of65)butalso a gradual shih^n attitudes towork and new expectations for Improvenient In the conditions c^ dally life,
especially tTut of the youflgtr gentraBon. These trends will gradually affectthe dynamics of the lapstiese eamomy but they ate unlikely tomake asubstantia] change In its overall perfoimance. Jn the hclds of money, trade,debt and development, andin its relations i^ith

trading partners, japan's

Auteursrechteiijk beschermd matenaa!

,ttadidonal arrttuiksH polldci and procedures will have to idapt to mcci Its

new rcsponajtiilLtJa 2S a nujoi inrc^iutioml puwcr.
IHE EllROftAN COMMUSm
In the early eighties, whkle the economics of ibc United ^uirs and lapaneii)o^ japid «£parulMH it wa& fuhlorubif ro T^er to Eurosclerosis',

wiijchaffilosd Europe wlih liigh uwnipbymenr jnd slow growth. In icccot years

however, this sttuaOon has changed dramatically, because of three main

fcawm.
Pint, increasing worid trade, parWculaily thai resulting irom US economic

expifision, his provided i samuJus Co the groujEh of Etiropr^n rconomin.

Sccondn the

new domestic economic policies adopted Ln rrxHt European

cDuntrkes have helped to improve eccxnmlc pciforniancer AihJ third, diedecision to establish a. unified European market by IW4 has already ptovlded a
substantial

economic and psychological boost to EuJOpc

Europeans who

'fccl

It

Is

now thegood about ihemsclvn'. They arc engaged

In

the

process of European pttaUttki. unthin};abie only a Eevir years ago, whkh istaking place it a rapid pace and with hr reaching results.

How h>i ihl! change come about, and what are Its imp licadKD^ Perhaps (hemost Important single came of this change was the EeellEig that unless Europeu»k some nuiot inidadvci u> impcgvc ic ccomoedIc iod cechnolog^lperformance. It was doomed to fall noi only further behind the United States,
but also, and more pdrdaiiarly, behind Japan

Europe Is now on the move towards a unified market of over }?[) million
consumers In which there will be the relatively free movement of capital,
labour goods and services. This process Is already under way and most ma|of,,

coTpocatlonK and b^nk;^ are positioning themselves to take advantage of the

new situation through Investments, mergers and takeoven. Also, there has
bfpn i £UTgr of mvestmrnt in Europe by coufitil« outside die ODmmutiiCy,
parQcuEarly by Japan and the United States, so as to ensure that they ate notsubjea to discrimination as oucsldeis to the European Community.
This iniegratun among the nations of Europe is not j mere economir at
technocratic matter,Li

has both hisiotlcal and political sl^ificance. As die

ptocesi of economic imcgrjttein progrcsKi. impoiunt polUJcai dedsjom will

betaken which wjildeieimlne the future shape of the European Community,
Its Institutions, and jts internal and external policies. Howevetn inany of themost difficult issues still remain unresolved uid the final outcome of thisintegradon is by no means clear.

The twelve member countries of the European Monetary Union havereached a broad agreement on the fLiit phase of the IDeiors plan to work

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

56 • TlxFint Gl^baJ Rfvoiutvm
towards a moneary and economic union, and dijs praceis moved forward
dcclslvclT iltbc Midnd Conferenoc. Apan from ibc United Kingdom, thereIs,» least pro vi&loDally.jnjgrfrmeni ID work together to define iprocea foran eventual single currency^

The rapid changes ukLnfphce In extern Europe are so profound thaithdi
future role IE shaping the EuropeinCommijnJtyaltcflW cannot be Ignored,

Among other mBuences, that of Comaii teunlfbcatlon will tian:^orm theEiaiuTC of Europe and in icAt in the future. Whether the world econocny v^LI

reium to and malJicain a higher rate of growth will tlepetx] CD a considerable
extent on (he leadership, (he policie&j and die cooperation of the main
Gcofwmic poults- (be European Communtcyp l^pan ud dK United Satn,

New panems of coopeiatioji should be developed \a naeet ibe global
challenges of the coming decades.

THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIESFrom die pomt of view of the managemenr of the world economy, die term
'developing couniries' Is iiuppropriite for operational purposes. This broadgrouping Etow covers such a wide range of countries that a more precise termisneeded, li i? useful lo dialysc 3 number of key issuu whicli wiU cldilfy dK

to\c of these countries In (be Iniemational econon^k seiup of the (uture^Three such issues are debt, poverty and development, uid participationin the world economy. Manyothcr approaches are possible, but the analysis

af ihrse issues doe^ lc:ad [o ii]S]ght5 into the future course of aciianr

Ddir The debt problem i& no longei i direct to the inucnKionji economic
system gpven die provisions ncnv made by the ma)Oi banks and thcJr
teoijcntation away fmm iet^Jing to developing coiintiles (and In bet, thegreatest risks for banks today are related to ihcii domestic real estate lending)Vui debt remaitis a ma)or domrsoc problem for (he developing cauntnes
themselves, especially in LaOn America and Africa. In the last two years die

Westerrb leaders have finally recognized that there exists the problem ofovetlndehtedness. Consequendy, they have agreed to allow easier debt terms
for the poorer developing countries which are making efforts( Improve their

ccorwmic mjnag<!rr>eni (the so called 'Toronto tetms' agreed on in 15S51
Secondly dicy have put in opciation a Kbcmc ^(he B»ady plan } (0 reduce the,debi burdensoflhe larger debtors such as MexKO and Brazil. These are major
5ieps lorwaid, but they cIcaHyrKcd to be pursued widi greater urgency

mdwill need more r'CsouiCes d^O Ire CurtCriCJy pTOUtded

Thcgrowdioftheworldeconomyasa whole was nearly 4 per cent in loss,
but diat of Latin America was only $ix tenths of 1 percent. During diat year.
Latin American debtactually (ell slighdy. from Usi 441 billion to S ^16 billion.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal.

Misrna^ui^ementqfthe World Eamomy • 57

asi result mainly o( debt to equity conversion. However, over the nexl

[wdvc monrhs ul] March IWO, the dcbi sctvice burden grew by S 10 Irrilllon,
iimply 3i a result of i J per Cent rise in anternatlorul Interest rwfs. The cost ofdebt service each yeu Is InBuenced by Inieresr rates and the value of che
dollar, and, as Is evident, both these awe beyond &k control of the counciJes

conccmedThis dangerously unstable sItiutlcKi does not seemto elidi

the clo$e

attention which it utgcntly deserves. The problem- if unattended, may wellundermine the future piospccis of the wotld economy for several reasons.
First, anumber of major US banks, although they have t-educed cheir lending

to developing countries arc Jtlll carrying sabiuntlal amounts oi developing

country loans In relaOon to their cipiCaL Second- since IW, the developing
couniries have been transferring money to die developed counmes. a "netneganve transfer' of repayments In excess of new lending. The amount of[his transfer

was over US( 50 billion in 1^. Compounding this problem,

the total flow of direct foreign Invciirncm to developing countries has fallenfrom 1 25 billion In IQS] to t

M bkllion in \9&7.

Thus, V a amc when the (leveloplng councries urgently need resources,
there Is a substantial net flow of these from poor to rich counines aiKl,meffea, the developed debtor countries, prnculariy the United Slates, arecompeting tor resources with the developing counctlei, This is inequitable,

and represents a tiemendous wj^te of human ind economic potenual.
Indeed, the abrupt decline ist dieecoriomiesof Latin America boomeranged

and resulted in a substantial decLne in exports and employment in USA

On Its own, the Indebtedness of the developmg countries constitutes aserious and growing threat to cheeconomicar>dpoliUal stability of the world,

but the debt problem must be seen in the conicxi of the other serious tradeand financial imbalances in the developed countries. In this petspeaivc, thepresent internattonal manjgenn^nt of the world

economy seem^ very

inadequate, and the hopeful and reassuring prospects ol steady economic

growth seem doubtful.

New resources will also be needed on a substantial scale ro stimulate
development at a time when there are new comprtm^ claims, for example

hom Cd^rn Europe ^nd fiom the countries diiecily aEfecied by the Gulf
aisis. [t isalso essential thatthe access ofthe debtor countries to che markets of

the North be maintained and expanded.

If

protecuonism Increases tn the

North, thjs will greatly aggravate the debt problem, as it has in the past.

Devefoping a viable approach to the debt and development problem will
requLrc i far more cohecent litikage of policies and JnstlEiitions concerned withfjnancial management ^EMFl, wlthinvestmem and development (the World

Auteursrechtelijk beschsMTid materiaalSS • The Fins CtohalBiv^uium
Bulk], and mdc iUMCTAD'. CATP), This will be i chaUcnge lo the worldcommuniiy* demmdlng imaginaiivt cooperative cffons by Ac United SawSn
Europe and Japiii, In si^te of Insdtuttonal reliKtancc. policy objectives andaction In such IniciLlnked hcLds as finance, debi management, InvestmcnT.

dcvcic^mcni policy, human resource development, nade, andcnvironmcni,

muji be made more coherent
PhittIy dnJ dodopmeiiL'

Another Isue, even more threatening to ihe world in[h« long tenn than debt, is liiat of poptibtkin growth, poverty and a decline In
the level of development in many countiies of the South such as Bangladesh,

Burkina Faso^ndtbiij.

Perhaps

Inevtobly,

thearrendonof

pobddans,busin«sleaders,

intellectuals and the public in the developed countries is focusscd on issues

that

immediately a^ea their welfare. The long term implications of thepiesent aei>d in the world economy— increasingly divided and polarized

between a jmail pctccnogc of the ilch tpcrhaps ?0 pci cent in 2025] and amuch larger percentage of poor and underptl^lcgcd ponple - seem too far
away to worry about, but tfify are not. Apare from ethical considerations,which seem to have a very limited motivaUaul force, two implicadom arelikely to become evident ^irly soon.

Snanumherof poor counukej.governmenrs will be^n [o respond to theintense pressure cEeried onthem hy their populaQons, especially by the

frustratedyouth, which will increasingly be concentrated in vast cities. There

no reaun to expect that they will act in accordance with the norms of
behaviour established predomlnand^ by Wcsicmeis when they laid theISfoundationsoftheJnLematlond system forty years ago. After scores of United
Nations resoluuons.

North-South dialogues and contererKes, with lew

positive results, they may well decide to move towards codromadon. Thatmay be ilingial or CLUstly would be Ittclevani to thf political realities atwork History offers many such examples^thi&

In these conditions, the comfortable assumptions of international studies

would no longer apply. At b«st, only the delicate network of iniematlonal
travel, healthand security conuob. diplomatic couricsles, business, and^Icntiric contao&j arid

» on would bf threatoicd, Ai worst, ir rrorlam andconflict— with ensuing migrition flows- would drastically increase, which

would certainly attraa d% attention of d% North.
The ptcuure ofa r.apidly growing population on the world enulronment isalready becoming all too evident. But the solution to this vexed question

I

Unllfd Nidoni ConEcrciKr cm Tcadc lEid r>cvr1opEEicnl

i

Orncidl Aftrccmcni Oft Tiilfl^ jnd Trade

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

cannot be found In the cnvlironmcntal area alone. GcnciiUy- ihc cause of
mvlfortinf n ul problems ti i complex mixiuK of human aetds. economic
pressures,

technologic j

Ioptions

andpolftlcal

IntrrcsQ.

Knowledge,

resources, sfn^itivJty and commitment are nefiJedloiesolve diem. There is

now wide public awareness that the E^ith is i s^inglc deLkate systenip thai die
descruoion of tbr envlTDnmenr In the Saudi chmUM dw Nonhn md v\k
verUr In the environmentaE area, there Jie now the precondtdtou forinlenutional actkJiir
P4ttiiipfi\Un in

EAf iwrfif

onvmy: The outline of the developed ecoiximlef

piesentcd earljei In this chapter demonstrates (he enormous potential of new
tech[x>logle5, nuiugemcnt practices and public policies to pnsmote a newsurge of growth. But at die same dme, the demand tn these powerhil

economies for d^ products of the developing countries U likely To dlmJni&h isa result of cechnologtcal progress,

automation, and their changing demo

The shift horn natural to synthetic products and newmaterials has cotiflnued, moreover- to weaken the markets for most basic
graphic structure.

product which still ate die main exports arwl the source of earnings In foreignexchange for most developing counlries.

A number of developing countrlesn such as South Korean Singapore,
Malaysia. Brazil,

and mote recendy Mexico, which are able lo compete

succcefully, aimafcrwcstmcnt, and generate a modem economic base, may

become full parckjpanis In the developed pan of liie world
economy, tn other countries, the modem part of a dual economy may
effectively

develop strong links lo die northern economies, unconnected to ihe rest of
the country which conunues with its traditi«ul economic piacticcar In any

nsc, most dcvclopliig countries itc in need of kcc» to modem technology
and enhanced icientific and technological cooperation.
For many poorer counCFles.arK] for the poorer partsof dual economies, iheeconomic opportunJbes wiEl be limited. Demand for their primary productsh'orn the f^orth is unhketyio increase significandy and ihey will probably be,unable to develop i significant manuFactutIng base. Further, the advantage ofcheap labour will diminish

asautomation In the North reduces labour

conient.and the potential of cbc knowledge revolution', of information andeompuicr technology,

telecommunicjEions,

etc.,

a

Likelytoremainunrealized. This Is because the trained and educated manpower, the systems,

and the infrasEruciure, on which such

i leuolutlon

must be based, arelacking.

Anodiet criitcal aspect will be the growing compeQtion for resources of all

klndj— particularly energy, water and suitable land for living— as world
populanon grows and environmenia] problems increase. The orderly

Auteursrechtelijk beschsMTid materiaal60 • The Fint Global Rsmlutum
disuibutlon of such tocui^s through The

muka price meduniim, or by

government iLlocaQon, wiLI come under incrcising ptc&uic js demands

become mote despeiace. This Issue wlU lequlte urgent anendon u theIntemadonaL Jevel. Jt will be ome of die necessary funciLons in Fucure, on bothpractical and ethical grounds.

inihe ^b5eI^ccof Jfllgnlflcamncw mawgy for world development, theworld economy

become even nure polarized and divided
between the ilch and the poor. Alteady, about 1.3 billion people, more thanIslikely to

20 per cent of world population, are serlousEy sick oi malnourished, iccordtng
to the World Heildi Organization, With dUspcispcctlve

,

Li Is

alanmlng to notethac the aid pcrformana of ihc developed countries may be dcioloratlng.

Since 19?0, their proivlslon of aid has expanded bioadly In Itnc with theii

economic growth, i.e. at about J per cem per annum. While the aid growth
Fluctuates from year lo yeai, the average for the past four year? has been lessthan ; per cent. In 1089 the amount was USI 46.7, abouiO.n pet cent of the

GNP of the dvclopcd co\intiic5, down from an average of 0*^ per cent of thelast [wemyycais Ithe UN target
set aiO.75 per cent). Within this average,issome countries fuve conslstendy maintained an aid level c^aiound 1 per cent,while others remain well below the average. An increase in ODA (O&dll
Development Aid ] i& paiticularly important fra- the poorest countries iS they
have very limited options available to promote dicli development.

The Improvemeni In reladom between East and West now raises thepossibilityof a truly global effort. OverUSt 1 trillion Is now spent worldwide

on ^imameiii^ eac^ year, including I 200 billion spent by developing
countries. Therefore, substantial human arxJ monetary resources could
gradually be released for development liuough the reduction of expenditureon drms throughout the world.

Hew thinking is b^dly needed: to ignore the issue will lead to disaster.
Besides, ^in^ply promoiing growth' chroughcmt the developing world along

the lines followedby die Western economies is not a vkable strategy on
environmental and other grounds. This must not become an excuse lor
stagnation: it is a reason for examining new apf^oachcs to developnient.

THE SOVIFT UNION AND EASTERtJ EUROPE

Unul quite recently, (he Soviet Union and the countries of eastern Europe did
norplayasubsianilai lolelntheworldeconomy. Now the siruatkin Is rapidlychanging and their rale will become increasingly impomnt for the following

mam reasons.
The success of pcrrdivild in the Soviet Union, and in those East European
countries engaged in reform, depends to a certain extent on trade andAuteursrechtelijk beschermd inatenaal

A4ismani^ffemenl of the Worid Eauiffmy • 61

technologkal coopciarion wich ihc West. A^ reform continues, ihc intensity

oFsuchcoDpcFdTian will tnaease. ind :hi^ wrll be orpjrtKiubnmptHianct towestern Europe, e&pfi:ia[]y Lo the Federal Republk: oE Germany, Thus, theleaders of the seven wenem mdustrlaL rounnrln. at ibdi meedngin Fails,
assigned a ccx^rdlruting lole to the EuEopean Commhsioi] tn this area.

TheSovletUnionand the Ej£t European coQntrLeE,paiticuldrly Poland, arebdng enormous budgetary and ElnandaldifficulcieE The budget deEnitt of the
USSR for 19B^ amouikted to 1^ billjon rubles, or about USI IQObklban ai theofFldal rate.

There is a vast coHectton of [Hoblems to be solved and thebenefits anticipated fmm frjuttaiia have not yet begun to appcdi. Fiam thecomumer's point of view, the ^lEuaiton Is In ba worsf dun brfaie.
In theieclrcumsunrcs, finance and Investment from the West are of great

Importance^ Although It has cnicred Into loan agreements, paTdcuUrly withGerman banks, the Soviet Union seems reluctant to take up the credit now
avatlable. Poland, however. Is uigcndy seeking resources tor Immediate use.

Two important issues arlsf FIfst, undl the nurugemfni of the economy in the.

USSR Improves, will the additional tinanrlal Tesources From the West be
effectively uQllzedlSecond, anUl It IS clear that reform will suceed, and that areformed Soviet Union will not revert to Its past policy of confrontation wirh
the West, should the West p<ovlde support^

Th\% second Issue

isproving to br a diviiive farcein

die West.

Wcsi

European countries emphasLze die opportunity and need to encourage
positive change, while some in die Unned States cmphailze the risk, and n-ced
fo: caution.

If

USSR should decide to move much bster, even Incurring

substantial debts to accelerate economk growth dirough coopcraOon with theWcsi, thii problem will become kqk.
RfloIuFu rniH \npan: C3ne of the certainties of international relations since theSecond World War was chat relations between USSR and Japan would not^jgnihcanlly

jmprove for two reasons, japan's friendly relations with theUnited States had pre eluded good relations with the Sov let Umon, during theperiodofEait Wesiicnslom Secondly, the vehementdiugreementbetween
Japan and IISSR over the Kurile Islands prevented any rapprochement-

Boih thc5C considerations may no longer be important. At a time whenWesr tensions have lessened, and because of an Incieasingly strajncd
relationship with the United Slates, |apan may feel more inclined to improve
East

Its

relations with the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union in lum may wish tostrengthenits

ues with |apan in order to benefit frcm

ItsfinancialandEcduioJogitdl tnourtn. Such i development would has'c mijor repercussions

on the structure of the world economy, and on IntetnaEional relat^^n; in

Auteursrechteiijk beschermd materiaal

62 • Tht Fim Global Reroluiion

Beyond these sped^ jnsances, ki must be noted that the poLtcks andpiofpects of the Sovlci Unionmd

ics allies ateof Immense importance to (hefuture of ihc world. For more than forty years, the rivalry and icnsjon

bctwfrn Ejst and Wesi havt nured IntfrctJUondl Ecljtion^ jctd obstructed
growdi and progress diroughour the world Whcihcr thi^ ^uujulxi i^ iiiady
ktrevetsibJe> and ftfotniiji will Jail to fulfil cxpcctJCLons ^nd this failure will

result In a return to mn&onutlon Is beyond the scope of this report. But

mcconclusion Is inescapable, Every effort must be made to cotKoTldate theprogress which has already been made, awiy from East

West conironmlon,

and toward; a rL:dua]on in drmamrn(». This will produce po^vt re&ulQ
ihrougbyui ihe world, for two reasons; fust, and most evident, it will help toreduce tensions, and thereby reduce the resources expended on armaments.

These resources wlH then became dvaJlable for invcstznent, and for theprovision of desperately needed social scrvlcefl^.

Secondly, the reduction of tendon, conflict^ and d^ threat of war will

provide in Important motal and psychologica] boost to world motale. Thisshould not be undetcsdmated. It could create the conditions for constiuctlve
f\i*f IniUaOvci ^nwhich East and West ojuld cooperate (cr The first time,

rnobllizing their energies to face global problemi. This Js perhaps die greatest
single opportunity avilUble ii the pic^ent ume to consolidate ihc piogjcu

whJch has been made by mankind and to open new ways for future global
coopciition.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

4. Intimations of Solidarity[n a d«larirtori made by the Club ofRom* in 15B^ ^vesaid, (here could tw abfl^land fulfilling futuicjivaiting humanity ffhhu die wisdom lorcdchouliDdgraspthcdlERculOesihudpOia^lowdndpjinfuldccllJKlf lincglctcs to

do so/ TfUi it ntll out crctkiH but dmc Is now running ouc, Ln the previous
dupccis wc have oudlncd iomc of the negjiivf and dangerous uendj inconwmporiiy soficTy However, there arc uuht posiovt aspcos which give
hope that humanity Is dwae of IQ problems jnd dial the human lacehas theurge, the creativliy and the adapiabkllir to manage tis uncenaln future. In thli
diaptei we ^11 moiOon a few of ibcsc signs of hope as an OKOUiagemeni tothe teadei.

There arp ihr» passiUritlK facing mankind. The firsr Is rhjt there will
be i nuclear ^ar, after whkli [here will be nolhrng to worry aboLL The

SKond Is that K wtfT be willlns Eo Uke a thousand snulLi wise decisions
and mill praduallyoutirfihe mess. The third 4id most prubaWe lithai
will do noilipne dibd tliai iht sitiul^ mlFF d^ttnor^it w ttiJl |hf poor
mj^ry For Ever aher.
Hill uiJKrLE the e^rlK jnd livCi|iit

Epjrdphrased Uom Harrison down's speecti')

For die bst forty-five year*. Ideological paTarlzadon between the two

superpowers hasheld the world hypnotized by the apprehension of a nuclcat
disaster.

1.

The crosion of the jnftuence of the superpowers, and now the'Fcr3onj( Comrnunlcatton'. ]U7». (tluitKm

Bmwn wn al dut Umc PmEaaa il die

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal^64 • The First Giohal iUpoIuium
iudden calLapu

d tht raw^dilballrd rtomornks hjs ncutnlrzd thetensions, presuming ui w\ih in entirely new mife en iunc. Agrwrnt nu on arms

reductionuc jchtevemena Eu beyond anything thai ojuld have been

Imagined 3 decide ago and there is the expecuOon of much more to come.
This clean the way kn mote scrkous atiendon lo dieoihci problems which In

mjke up the predJfajnent ol mankind'.
The new spjrH of coopetation heiwccn ihc United Stites and die Soviet
Unton has made possible a high degree oF ubdarlty between the nations

conjiincuon

ag3ln» tggr«&^n. as proved by die i^ cement of the UN Securltv Council jnd
General Assembly to

ImpOK a worLd

blockade on [raq folbwingItsoccupation of Kuwaii In i990.

Cooperative efforts have led Co progress In odier areas, such as the

Uw of

ihe Seas Corafercnce where delegates, after LcEigdiy ncgociiuom^, ^g^ced on

many important Issues and novel InstltudonaJ measures. They ciKknsed theconcepr of the oceans as &< 'common heritage u( mankind This precedent,

hdfdlsQ been applied to AntarcdUplhcUsL and ewemety fragile unexploitcd
area of the planet,

which otherwise would have been pillaged by ihe

Industrial nadocc in iheii

gr«ed for new le&ourcn, leading to ecologicaldisaster.

There have beef> In recent vean,et>coursgTng signs of an Increase in publicawarenessof ihe dangers 'A'hich face m^dLLCJniuaUy to ihe repots by ipoups
such

is

the Club of Rome

which were then promoted by the media.

Worldwide public debate, the pressure of green lobbies, calamities such r
die Chernobyl jnd Bhopj] diijsteis have forced polincijns to jecognize theImportance of a whole series of new issues, and compelled Industry to adopt
ai

least

a semblazKe of social andenvirorunental

consequence of awakened awareness, newsigns

responsibility'

As aof responsibility andsolidarity ha.ve appeared amcnig the general public in the form of citizens'groups, coopcntLvcs and NGCh with a vast vacjfty of alm^^d methods,

oncemed with local, national and world problems.
Particularly

Impressive has been

the leEponse ofvolunteer agerKles to disasters in places which -areccmtrlbutlons have been outstandingInamany private and^ fromtheii bases. Their

number of eardiquake relief

opcrattons. During the acute famines In Ethk^pfca and thc5ahcl,NGOs appear
to have been more effecnve than governments and (he international agenoes
in promptly

reaching food supplies to the starving popublkins. In general,

non- governmental activity h^ achieved a new order of impoitance and bids

LT/iiFr;i^oE}ilLifMuMjl waiEbeiltledibenigiiulandvciyfiiitreiea/chp^otecLaldir

dub of SlOUK.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Ititim9lionfafSaU4firity •65

Influence on nadonil and InTcmatJoful

fail to have a growing and conscrucdvc

polidn.
Despttt dK relative taliurt of dev^lopjn? ni and ltd polid«, fomc countiics

hive adiicvcd ^p^cucuUi luccosfs. ^la, one oi ihc most populous
countilcs, has become i aapi industtlaL power In MJdtdon to li3- agrlcultura]arhl^ementj chtough du Green FtcvoluUon. The Aiian Dragons, otherwise

known asiheNIQ f die newly industrtaJlzed counoles oFSouih Easi Asia —Taiwan, Singapore. Hong Kong ^d South Korea,) have achieved gteai
pnxpeilEy which is \axd lo a large extent on exploitaticoi of the new
The Dragons,

If ehnologlet. Theie Is a ]»son hrrc foi adier struggling nations

following: ihf

exampleoli^p^n.

founded(heirdeve]opmen[ on thegene ralizauan and upgrading of education and the creation of ^oiind uicnufic
In&astructum. Somr of ihf poorer coiuntrlcs a.re aho ^ho^ving the results ofautiveInitiative— for example,

the recent progress In Boiswanj andconsistent development fn Zimbabwe.
fi sign ificint event his been the exercise ofpeoples powci' iuppirtcd by,world public opinion- leading to the downfall trf oppressive governments meastern Europe. These are mvUfe^iauons of change which ten years earlter

would have been ^uppres^ed by mlhtarv Intervenbon. This type of blood lessrevolution is a rare event in world hbtory, and contiasts widi the brutal
crushing nf popular will i few mondia tarlicr it: Chliu and chc tragic events In

Romania. Changes in Chile have beer* positive and there is a trend lowsids
den>ocracy In many other place*. The recent ideological volte face by theletderof Erhfnpla ii amszFng and hopes now arise ^or scnlemen is in Central

America and even for [he disjppejcance of spanheld in South Africa. despiEc[hedangerofdvli WIT In ifut country. In many African counirla. which havebeen ruled by diciiiors and single parry polmcs ancz independence, public
unrest is beginning to win concessions. Thus, as we come to the last decade of
thismillenlum, we ^nd chat detnocraey has emerged as the triumphant andprefctted ideology of ihe whole wotkln while dictatorial ideo9<^e« both of
ihc ^fl and of the right have ^len Into disrepute. One can only hope this will

be an Ittcvenlble rtcnd.

A new kind of fel Jtion&hlp can now be obscivcd between heads of slate
and minlners. Through numerous mulQUterjl orbilateral

conferences,meetings aE>d telephone calls, personal relationships are being establishedwhich enable a bener understanding anxing the human beings behind theofficial

masks. Thisisaeadng a new network of tapid communication

at the highest level, even If It docs not always lead to greater understanding orcommon anion.
Enormous benefits have flowed from advances In the medical sdences andAuteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

In ihc ImprOiVcmfliiol hygiene [he world ovn. In tht North, iKe scourge of

tubcTculojts tus gone; life expecaiK;^ has tnansedn and curoof al^viatians
foutxj loi manf lllnc&scs. Sm^JIpox h^s been eliminated by ^ weLlplanned

tnKrnHlonalefFortanJ hopes exist (or the ciadictlon of several other diseases

which plague the ocpkal councrtes. Pcrhap* even more Lmporun[ ls ihe
iiEnificjnt rcducft)!! of Inhni morphty in ific developing counuLw,

diFough

improved hygiene, but ta

Inircductkin of aagreater eEifni

pnly

because of the^mple mpEhod of curing Infandle diarrhoea and more

recendy bf immunmTkKi agaj rtsc niej^Tes, a maiar killer cf children in tropkal

and equatonal ciLmates

All inall,death conttol' has been moic succcssfu]

dun l»nh conuol in the dfvrioping world.
World recognition of d^ jmporian>:e of human rlghc ha^ betn i posi uve
feature In recent yeajs and shouJd continue to be so. Amtvsty Jntenutlacu]

and other tuch bcdici have been suecessfyl \n exposing jbii^es everywhere
without political bias. NeveEtheles^, the fashionable appeal to human nghis
hjj served is a manipulabve alibi to cover up unseemlv prdttLCts in nuny
countries.

Here

we must sires the ornvtction of die Club that themaintenance of human nghts must be complemented by an equivalent

affepunee of social respi^nsibilicy Thi^ ^pphe^ eqiiaily af the [ndlvLdual.
national and InietnatJon^l levels

An eiample of a prompt approach tolhesoluOonof agbbal problem byInterrra clonal aclkui has

been the (at present partial^ agreement for (heelimination ol the CFCs already referred to.

We have also mentkified thettoid In Industry [ominln^ze dangnoiu, ditty jnd repedtlve work by die useof robots, b^teresdng atcempts are aUo being nude to replace Jine assembly by

new niiethods of group working whtch give dtc n>embcrs of a team a varlayof tasks to da and allow for individual in voivemenl which makes It possible forworkers to have pride In ihciE work and craftsmanshipThls^enLury ha^ ^imcsscd gieai advances m die potiuon of vromcn In theWestern counmc^. fitic in gaining the [lgh[ lo vote, later being accepred In

cmpbynKnt outside and now edging cowards pay equal \o diat earned bymm, hi many cultures women have been c&ploiEed by men, mnicied to die
H&ml]y and given a iccondaty pbce tn sodcty. Of coiirsc. duoughout dieages, iniclligcnt women hive exerciwd a great hifluence on society, dtherthemselves or through their men. Today women work side by side widi lacct.
sit In parliament,

become business leatlers arid prime ministers, although they

arestillinrather modest nuniberunth-e higher post^. This is good news, butH
Is

soil

iwl enough.

The aggressive feminism of (he seventies and eighties

somehow irsissed the point. In demairding an aiiitlcial equality with men,rather than a tole

which Is essentially complementary, women foundAuleursreciileiijk beschermd malenaa!

Tnanwtvms of Soiidarin * 67
iheyhidnoDdierchokeburiortptodiiCf thf^tpnl? mil? logic which hj^ l«f
the woild inio it& pr»cn[ sucf of mdUis?- In (ht pimcH, manj-of chemos:
jucces»ful of diem

bccune, as li were, mjlc-hemcd women irt&tcdd of

dcvelc^ing the vtttuc5ofthc EcnuJc mind which society so hidly needs.
This phase. hippLlf, xcms co be p^^sing. There is Incredsing recognition

jmong boch

mm arvi women of tht Fjgrificanw of ffmale quaiitiK and

Women lie i[ last accepting cbe ha ihaithcjanaad musi bch^v^ awomen rather than anen^ co beat men ai ih«Ei own ganKS. Equally men,valucs^and the minaeerUL economic and political sytrctai they have cteaccd. arebcg.LT]nlng to rccogniie the Impoftancc of won>cn'5 skills as managers of bothpcopk and resources, as comniunicaron and. above jII, thji Lheir vf rsitilliy bvia] for the development of a hciilth^ jnd balanced ?ocie[v This recognjtJonby both 9CIB 1^ a crudallf Imporont step foiwafd, and chis oppotiLinity toenable and cncouiagc women to contribute iuUy K> the running of toocKy

must not be wasted. The batiLc Is not yci fully won. Male duiivinism persjRs,
but It will pas» with Fhc gencradons.

Two ele:T>ents are of paramounc importance if women ate to conchbuteactively and consnuctlvely to axia! development. Firstly, society must bcdi
listen CO

and place confidence in women.

In themale dominated andseemingly radonaL world of today, female Incuidan, versatility and innate—

common sense are too often IgnoredoFren ^r 3 hctvj wtK- $cc>;imllyi
women will have to be given both financial and moral support by society.
Such nrpport needs to be fkrulblc and sensitive to albw women to pfay aposinve toii in the shaping ofWCieiyH without COmprOrnlting their place at thehcan of the hmily.

tn(he West,thismeans ilcTiiblc work pattcrnSncomprehensive child care and equal opportunities. In the developing world
this means extensive legal rights as well as poll iical and financial support- In

somr: countries, availability of credit for

women for the first time has

unleashed a wealth of IniUatJvc lad cractve Kttvicy,

However, above all, women must linen to liiemscluci and support eachodier.

They must develop cmhdence

In

their

abilities

ard stop an

inexplicable tendency to demgratc themselves while |udging

ihemwivcs

a^insc m^le criteria.
Icis diusdcarchat

we srcmiTiuallyrnponslble for thffumrcof our world.

We have to call foi an jnctcased pjndy rc^ionublc action.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

S. The Vacuum
Order ir socicly Is determined \fj the ccJiHion of to mein!>cn. QnttI At
middle oE oue cenruiy this w^ j^oim^ll^ cnsuECd by 3 natural pauiocsm
andasaae of belonging lo ^bc comm\iT\\tf, and reinforced by moral

di&ciplincleaders,

exerted by rehgion

and by respectforthe Uatc

andits

howevei temotc tbejr migbc be horn 4k people, GoKtilized

religious hith hs^ now ev^porared in man]; ^oanO'lcs; rcsprct for the poHiinl

process has jIh? fjdcd, Icavtog behind Indifference,isIf

nor hasnlliy

Thispardy due to the Influence of dK medlj. and partly to ibc inadequacyof the pollOcal paciles In facing rci\ problems. Minorities ^re Increasingly

unwllTing to respect (he decision? of The maiorliy Thus i vacuum has been

aedced.

inwhich boilk thr ofckr

ud ab)ccnve& in soctcty ac bnng

eroded.

Today's approach to social bfe ii superficfal bised 00 current events andcrisis govcrncncni which actempt^ 10 eliminate

sympcoms widiout dta^osmg

the causes of problems. This It the way we are setting the scene for thedcsTiumon oE our planet

We look in vain for wisdiHn. The opposition of the two political ideologies
which

have

dominatedcentury

thisnothhig b<Jt a Qras& m^reridlLsm

nolongerexIstSnleaving

Nothing wjthln ihe governmenrjl system

jnd it! denslDT making proccw seems capble of opposing or modifying
dicse tKDds, which raises quesdc^s about ouc common fpture and indeed

aboulthe very survival ofthetace.

We must ask whedier these are signs of an Individual and collective
rejdgtutioti Ih the tec ol the uumest of the caak f^^tng humanity^A dx

urgem need for acUonn or Is it a sign of a lack of unaglnaQon and an

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

,

The Vacuum • 69
Incapadtyto Invent new way^^d ncwmcani whjch willm-edSLLreupUlhe
global magniiudc of [hcpHioblcmi^Tbctask is Indeed Eormidsblc, builfvwc^w no

ijgnof ^cqjdng its chdllcit^, li Is Ukcly peopLc may p^mc, Ioec biih

In [heir leader*, give inia fcjr. and ofEer support lo cmicmlJts who know how

to Cum leu to ibctr own ddv^nogc with rnccndiary &t>cei:hes

a law of NKUrt di2T any vaoiujn will be filled jnd iheicEbre
dlmUutcd> unle» this Is phyflcall^' prevented, 'Nature', as the uyirig goes,[tft'dbhor^d vacuum '.Like die bJackholcsof space which suck In everydiJngdidi

appiojch«» the vKUum of sodeif seems Co atna the best and dw woia at
randmn. Wean but hope chat the semi chaos whfch Is now taking over will
cwcntuallT provide die anaLCilal foriself otginl^dpossibilities. The present sysiem is noi yet useless,system withnew

but human wisdom must

be marshalled quickly if we are c& survive'How simple things were with Brezhnev/ a Euii^«an Icadet confided,]ulf-scriausly and half ironUally. The colUp&e of onnmunlsm in the East
Eutopein coumiic^ and the Soviet Uiuon wiU be a m^ior unseirling &ctor
during the coming lum of the century. The new hands dutate to be dealt In
the card game of politics aee unllkeSy co be a^sesied at dietr true value, nor are
their potenii jl consequences likely to be evaluated until at least two ot three

decades have gone by.

The itnpkisfon of the Comtnuniil idc^^Fo^y rh^c b^d dominated the gicatcr
part oF the twentieth century wa certainly spectacular, but It was by nomeans an isolated event, licolnddcdwlthibeendofthe American dream'
which k»t its credibility w^th the painful Vietnam war that deeply scarred thecollective Amcrbcan comdeiKe, The failure of the DcEbi^, Hispanic
migration, the phenomenon of povenj within plenty, drugs, vIolerKe and

AIDS. And the fan char (he 'melting pot' nolonger worked were other potent
factors In

itsdemise, lijving lostits

position of unique leadership In theworld-aleaderihipcomposedofa generosity laced wfth Puritan values, anda cynicism worthy of the conquerors of the Far West —the American EutKin isplunged into doubt ^nd is Eacmg the often resisted temptation oF withdrawing
IntoItself,an escape thatIs

no longer possible in the present global

environment.

Most of the peer counmcs jre graduslli/ relinqiJlshinR their Marxlit md
socialist beliefs [n Favour ctf more concrete and iminediale preoccupations,such as economic deueioipment artd the stabilization of their economies.
CapLlalist

and fiee-markel economies have founditnecessary lo

makeadjustmenU so as to survive, while socL^iist systems jIso m^de adiustmenia
belatedly but did not survive. The political and economic cheoncs- which

motivated the actkins of

wax and aroused the opposition of others For theAuteursrechteiijk beschsMTid maleriaal

70 # TbeFmtGUjbai Rrpoluam
greawr pan of this century apiwaT TO have run their MQtM.OfllynuKrlalijmremains loday as a strong all pervasive force.

h is noi cj&y ^ samulat? a euiivpt^jI debaif on ideas, but the lack ofanempts lo do so further dcepcni the void There Is 3 prosing r^eed for such a.

debate, and ^bc hequency of mtemaiJonaE conferences and nieeungs, with
their cross culiurji dlscussioiu. dvmld Initiate new^d more global chinking,Thit period of absence of diought and lack of a common vision - noi ofwhat the world of tomotiow will be, but of what we want It to be so thac we
can shape It - is a source of discouragement and even despair. How simple It

was,or should have been, for France, Great Brftain and iheir allies to inobnize
agalnai ihf ir common Nazi enemy. And

wa a notsbviouj dutlt^ (he period

f the cold war that die Western nations should accomplish a diplomatic,,

economic and technological mobilization against the Soviet Union and Its
Dteiliie countries? Again,
dlffererKcs,

freedom fighters, despite tiibkl and ideologkcal

were able to findunityand strengthened patriotism in thecommon crKmy, the cploniil pQ^ecs. it
would seem that men md women need a common motivjuon, namely acommon ^dvetsaiy agA^st whtim they can organize themaelves and act
flniggk for IndcpenderKC ibcli

rcstther In the vKUum such motlvadons seem ra have cea«d ro e>:lst - orhave yet to be found.

The need for enemfe; seems to be a common hlfloncalfAclor. Some states
have striven to overcome domestic failure and internal contradictions byblaming external enemies. The ploy of finding

a u:ape:goa[isas old as

mankind itself- when things brcometoodi^ult at home, divert ittentlon
to adventure abroad, ^ng the divided nation together bo hce an ouolde
enemy, either a real one, or el:e one invented fbr the purpose. Widi thedisappearance of the ttidlEional enemy, the Lcmptadon is to use tellgious or
ethnic minorities is scapegoats, e^pedilJy dvase whose differences fn^m thenujonty arc dJsKurbfng,

Can -we live widioui enemies' Every state has been so used to classifying its;r^lghbours as friend or foe, that the sudden absence of traditional adversaries
has Left governments and public opinion with a great void to fill. tJew enemies-

have to be idcntilicdn new strategies Imdgtned. and new weapons devised.

The new erxemles are different in iheji nature and location, but they are rK>less real. They threaten the whole human race, and thdr ramcs are pollution,
water

shortage,famine,malnumtion,

illiteracy,

andunemployment.

However, it appears that awir«icss oi the new enerriies is, as yet, iruufficienc
for bringing about world cohesion and soltdatlty fbr the fighr Also the failureof many Ideologies has removed some of the necessary points of reference.

Twoaxes of reference have made po^& tble the pollucal evolution that has

Copy rig hied material

The Vaaaon • 71
shaken the world (hexEastyem and Ifd [O the downEaN of many

djctatonhlps^ Thc&c ate hum^n tLghi&anddcmocnc;,

Wc shall now j[uJy»c(hctr lengths and lirmc^uona,

During (be pjsid«ade, ihf conc^pcof huiiun Eights has been i moblLizIng
tictcr which beame e^ecUve through ic dissemlTution hj the mcdjj and hj

word of motL^ in che countries where such rights were dlsrrgsrdcd ordenied. When freedom was widely enjoyed In other countiiesH how could(Ik people of some countries bedei^ivedof It fndefinltcly^ This isespecaTly
the cue In countries nuchas Poland or Bcazjl where ihf CaihoJic Chureh in.

ardent protagonist and supporter of human rights, has i strong JnfluezKC.
In some of the mast lotahtarljn of countrin. dsplnotJiu tot ^iccdom hive

been fulAllcd in such a way cha[ It seemed as if the pressure of vilues Jud
reached ciitica] point and exploded, averthrowlng tlic opprcs^oiSr Throughvarious processes

md despite the painful cose of ctvll stru^lc, death Ji>d

Impiisonment, this thirst fbr freedom was expressed by MaTtin Luihci Klngn

LcchWdJad. VdcIdvElivel.DontlcEdcrCiiTidtd.andNchonMjudddjusiu
in rarller years Mahaima Gandhi h>d paved the way.
but freedcqn alone cannot reorganize a state write a constitution, create a.

market and establish economic growth, rebuild irxlustry ar^ agriculture orhbuild a new social siTucrure. Lt1sanece«aryandnobletnsplTaaoiulfotce. bur
Isfar from bemg an operating ni^nujl for J

new govetnTncnt. This 1^ why theconcept oFhuman rights simply initiates but cannot implement tiie process of
democtatltition
This is where the question must be

rsi^— what ton of democracyisrequired today and for what purpose?

The old democracies have functioned reasonably well over the Iak ewo
hundred years, but tiiey appejT now to be in 3 ph^se of complacent sfagnaQon
with little evidence of real leadership and innovation. It is hoped, with thenew'found enthusiasm for dcmocricy in the leccndy liberated counalcs, thaipeople will not reproduce slavish copies of existing models thil ate unable tomeet contemporary needs.
Thr limia </fdtmacracy

Democracy is not a pinacea. [| cannot organize rvnything and It ]i unawareof its own limits. These facts must be faced squarely, saollegioui though thismay souitd. In Its preseni form, democracy Is no longer well-suited for thetasks ahead. The complexity and the technical ruture of many of today's
problems do not always allow elected representatives to make competentdecision; at ihc tight dme. Few poimcldiH jn office iic luffiticndy aware of

the global nature of the problems ticing them and lltde. If any, aHrireiKS of

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

72 • The First GkixUB^foiutien
die Inicratnons bttwctn the problems, Genfcally spcakmg, informed
diiucssjon on tbc nuln pollUal. economic ^nd soaal Issues oke pljcf cm rv^\o

and wlcvision rather than hi PwUuncnt, to die deirlmeni of the Ijticr. The
JcUvtda of pobdcd putlesarc^ io inrcn^ly focusscd on flection deddliim dnd
party livalricj that ihej end up weakening dK democracy dwy «e supposed
TO jcrvc This <;cinfTOn«yonal approach gJv^s in impression Thai ^riy rwcds

tome before rulional intciest. Strategies and uciics 5eem more Impoitam
than ob)cctlv« and Qfien ^ conscituency Is negkcred J& won ^ It I& sained.

With the £unent mode oE operation. Western democraclei arc seeing dldr
formal talc decLjnc and public opinion drifiing jway from elected
representatives. However, the crisis In the contemporary demoaadc system

mua not be allowed to serve ^s an excuse for refecnng democracy.
[n

ihc countries

now opening up to freedom,

deniocTJcy

Is

being

lotioddced In a situjtion which demands grejily chjnge-d artiiudn andpatterns of behaviour from ciUiens. These ineviable problems oE phasing indemocracy are diEficult to solve. But ihere Is anocher, still more serious

Democncy docb noi necn^^rily build the bridge between a colonial
or neo colonial economy or a c-cmnlizcd bureaucratic economy, and a
maiket economy based on compftinon atid cdpiblc oE producing giowih.
ACdnidn, market relatione and m^n^perial styles dimply do not exist In aquestion,country experiencing a tt^nsinondL sicuation ^uch as (he present, which

because of sudden and unforeseen changes has been neither planned nor

prepared for the tnecessary structures, [f such a situation Is allowed to condnue
for too long, It Is probaWc thaf demociKy wfll be made TO s<^m responsible
for the lagging economy, the ^carcEnesand uncertainties. The very conccplof

democracy could then be questioned and allow for the seizure of power byextremists of one sott or ihe other,

Wlnsion Churchill was rl^ when he quipped. 'Democracy Is the worst ofallsystems, except for the rest.

'

Yet we must be aware of its erosion, its

triglilty and its limicatiom-

When persons say It Is obvious what must be donero improve our situation,

they seldom ask 'Why Isn't It doTvihenT And^f'they do ask, they will hivrCQuiKwrr, 'Ills beutisei^fl^ihe (political] willor because of our habits, or because of shortsightedness, or politics arid soon,./

Our inability to Indicate how to overcome these sources of ineztia andresistance makes It dear that we are not at all sure about what must be done.

We overlook Ipsycbologlcally speaking, we deny our ignorance and instead)say, riutwc lack the political will. The crucial need is to revitalize democracy

and give it a breadth of perspective thiEwillenable it to cope with the

evolving global situation.

The real question Is, Is this rvw world we firxl ourselves m governable?

Copyrighted material—
The Vactam • 73
Tht irtSwCr w. wt[h thr txuting sfruCturs and JnfCud«, ptob^bly AOt. H3V«
wc gddKicd ihc nmessuy mnns and wtsdotn to mike dedsions on die fcile
required for the world problematique, E^ngintOKCOumih£c:itigenoe&of

dnK' There Is an irKieislnglr evident contiadlalon becweeo Ihc utgency aitaking som? d^cisioii^ ^nd the dcmocriiic picxc^s loiinded on piocedumsuch a& pJiUimenQFy dt^bjce. pubk debate,
unions or proteslovul otginiunons.

jcid

neg(XlJbon& with D3de

The obvious adv^rtoge of dvse

pioccduic^ i^ the achJpvement oi a conscn^u^. die di&jdvjn(jg.e lies In d)c

Eimcdkey ukc, espectally ae [he Incf mjcLOEuUcvel. tor indeed the difficultyIs

not only in the taking of decisions, but also In d)dt Implemcnabon -andevaluadon. Time In dbnc nuitc» hjs dcqulied a dccpcthlcal value The co^i?

oFdelay lie monstrous In letmsoF human hfe and hardship as we II as wane ofresources.

The sIowiku of decision oklng

aindemociabc system\iparticularly damaging it (he Iniemauiirnal level. Wheii dictators attack andtnternaOonal policing Is required, delays In taking dedsioois un mortally aFfcci
the lives of thousands of people.

The problem then is to invent instruments of govenutKC capable of copingwith change wldiouc resorUng to violence and mamtaJnirLg the kind of peace

which provides security, lustlce and fulBlllng growth br individuib andsoclenes allke^ Kot only have we to find better mans of govemance atnational

and iniemaUonal

characteristics

levels,but

wc also have to deiermiiie

theGlobal '.govemarKc'

outof the capacity lo governinvocsbulacy docs not tmply a global government' but caiher the institutions.

set up for coopernlofl, coordination, andcommon iction between durable

sovereign states. The good and, for our purposes, encouraging news Is that;— people

arsd nations are beginning to-agtee to oke the 'next steps' together,^tiowever, they are carefully avoiding toagree on leAirthcv^re agreeing.);—they are reaching a consensus by practical procedures rather than by theformal vodng of govemmental rcprnentanves;— many Iniemabonilfunctions, especially those requinng the most forntghr

and perauonal flevibllltyr can be earned out through non -governmental
arrangements;—In many fields governments have come to realize diat the effccOvc
deploymeniotthejrmosi cherished right, then sovereignty, requites thata be p«y with the sovereignty of othct nations, in Ofder to do dilngs thatnone of (hem can do alone. In this sense, coopeiauon docs not mean
rehnquj^hing ^ovciejgtityH but rather exerting It diiough joim action
instead of losing it or just not using it.

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74 • TheFinta&balBjrvoIittKm
Whfthcr onthf intfrnationa! level, the national l<vd,orthe levd of theOMporaiion. the problem of govcmanct ptescnti itself tn new cetms. The

gtowing compkxicy of die world and of its probJems makes It nccc&ary tohave a comply If grasp on ftcmendous ^mounc of InfbrmaOoo brfoce commg
Kfi decision. This limnedldlely calls Into qu^Ci on ihf qiiality of informadon,
lot ix \i In con^tanc dmgrr of rapid ob&ok&tenc^ and po§&ible jnjc<:tuacy. or ofbelE^us^ior outright propaganda. A second Lmpcdicnenr [o governance Is
C2uicd by the Increasing size and inertia of large bureaucracies thai spreadtheir tentacles around checenftcsof power and slow down ot paralyze bothdcdskm- making and impjementaiion. Other crtidal impedi merits consist of
[he

Idck

of

cdundoniov

tompctmt tiiucmhip

uudcquatc

dnd

LnteTgeneraQotul undct^tandlng.

Yet another difficulty arises trani the Uck of cooperation within theadmtnJstratiiRi and lis secioral .struCEuies, [f the different power centre; do not

m opposLdon

learn to cooperate, and Instead Insist on acting in ignorance of or

to one anoCha, the KSMltIng adrnlnlstrative sluggishness can povokc

dchpthat can lead to inefficiency, wrong decisions and confrontation

So far, governance has oprnt^ by treating problen^ separately and In ai^tticai mode, i.e, field by field. Today the inreractEon between problems ismcoz^po^y of governments and their departments, working In a vacuum,outside oE the framework of the problcnutlqiK^ This In cum demands leader?
of a new klTwl.capableof treating problems In both a horizontal and verticalmode^ In the world ihat Is eniergmg, decision tn^lng can no Longer be themonopoly of governments and their departments, working In 3 vacuum.
There is the need to bring many partners into the process— business andindusoial organlzatkms, research imtjtuttons, sdendns, iUCOs and privateorganizations— so that the wtdcst possible experience and

skill

Is

nude

available. And, of course, erhlightened public support, where ihe public Is

iwatcof the new needs and the po^jble consequences of decisions would be,

essentiaL Adynamic world needs an effective nervous system at the grassroots
level, rwt only to eruure the widest range of inputs, but also ro make theidennflcanon of every cinzen with the common process of governancepossible[n the present St tuition in the worlds the lack of identlBcatkin of the people

with the processes of decision -nuking

isexpressedinthe formofIndifference, sccpCdsm, or outright rejection of governments and politicalparties, which are seen is havtng llnle control over die problem? of our times.

These atHiudes arc clearly Indicated by a decreasing race of paitidpaCon In
elections.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

71* Vacuitm • 7S
The (6>rttn6n enrmy ofhutHomry u Man[n searching For dcomnuinmfmyjgainsl

whom wcc^nunitCr wcc^mcup

With ;hc idc^ ihji pollunon, the ihrcai of global warmjng. waicE ^horageSx

Enntae and the like, -would fit the bill. In tbdi loulliy jnd then intenctLons
these phenomena do con&tiiuie a common thicai which mast be confronted

by everyone tDgcthcj. fcjl in designating dicsc dangers a^ the enemy, wc fall
InColhetrap. whkh we have already warned Eesdeis about, njmdy mistaking

symptoms for cjuses. All these dangers are caused by ^tuiuji mccrvenoov In
n*tural processes, and it i5 only through changed atritudcs and behaviour thatthey can be ovcrtome. The real enemy thai is huminitp :oclf.

6,

The Human Malaise

The shock wivci prtdjccd by the drasdc dnnges of ihc peat irinsiDon aic
ihus sparing no region, noracfrty. This upheavil has broken up a system of

idaDonshtps and bclJcEs Inhetlted ^oni the p^^, wlihout leaving humanlcy

any guideline ioi &it hxtatt. ThciC arc

w many reasons for doubt anddcipali: the disippcaiancc of value? and established points of reference, ihe

InCTOSlng complexicy and unccruinty of the woild and the diffictilcj' ofundersfandlcig the new cmeiglng globat society, unsolved problems such ascontinuing

envlronmcncal

dciciioidDon,

andextremepovertyandundcrdcvelopmCTit In ihc louihcrn counoics; the Impact of mas media often
opeiating as 3 rnagmfying ^\m for i dcprosinE reality and hjghlightfng themisery of people.
Let us mention, Kidioui attempting an In depth anilysfs, a ElstofvarloiK

symptoms, which although differing from ezch odier in thdr nature and tbclr
consequences, together shaTc die quality of being globaf symptoms; thewava of violence. patdculaEly in big cities, the permanence of mtemailonalterrorism, the actlvltlo ofmiFlas Ithai are also rapdlybccomlngintcmatJonal

networks), the rise of drug addiction and drug -related crime, tbc aggressive
sexual exhibitionism and dcviambchAVLoui exploited by the press, the othermass media, and the advcrdsJr^ tndusor.
All these phenomena are ^tcUng dic^cage,oomanydlffcicn[ levels, fori

new upsetting environment, where deviini behaviour Is In general given somuch and such repfited coverage that ii ti percelTcd as being commonpbce.
Parents and teacbcis, the point of reference In most societies, have not been

prepared by thdr education to adjust to the new sltuaOon Imposed upon them
today. As the late American sociologist Margaret Mead remarked. 'Toung

Copyrighted materialpeople arc ttur njtlvc population of this nf w world In which wc iduJCs ire
Immigranis'.

Some of \a woukJ even go aJong widi her ob*c^vJt^on dui"nowhccc In die world do there esisi aduiti who know what their children

know, however remott or simple ihc socieues in which those chihiren live, [n(he pjst, [here were ilways »mc dden who knew more — had moreexperience or praMiec of a sy^em In which dicy had grown up - than jn?
child. Today there are no Icaiger any.'

Everywhcreptcacbctsite being difficulties wldi^JT pupils, fbrihcy too
are unprqiaied for teaching young people who aie much more lndependen[dun (hey were ai ibc same age jnd constdenbly better Informed (atxl
misinfoimcd) brcstrse of the nuu medlj. All^ruofln^rutlons,suchjs thepohticaT parties or Qadeurh^i. itc discover ing bow difRcull ills to retarf todieir coDstituenoes In the old fashioned way. Thte crisis of relationsbps a acrisis of dialogue. And jb&ence of dialogue leads to conironotlon.
This does not merely mejn thai parents and lejchers hive ceased to be
gutdc»; It tXim [hat dicrc die no longer

mj guides in (he old xnx of thetenn whether one boks for diem in one's own country, jn China, In Lndiij in
Afrla. In Amerlcaor in Europe. Thinks to modem information technology,

young people uc being exposed rapidly lo more and more facts that givethem reason to believe that their elders lack responsibility and ^re una wareof
enormous dangerous such u a nuclear holocaust, pollution and the violent
destruction of environment. Furthermore, a shower of reports cm unrelated
dlanets and violence in the news everyday are like a series of shocb that leadm die feeling of generalized disorder.
Wi^in this djsturblng paoem, what hapt^s to the Ife of the individual^Children watch tdewlslon and leatn about all aspects of human life. They
1learn to be persons widi individual choices, Indlrutions and freedom. 'Hieconflict between inherited and acquired values. Is such that If a young person

wants to delink and jci for himself, he must have lots of courage or he will
break down- Not having been given the means to distinguish the fundamcrtal

meaningIn(radlUons andvalues,from whalIs

nnerely theirformalexpression, the younger gerkeraUon is rejecting tradltjons and values as awhole and is sketching out new trends: today, adolescents ate the ones who
krtow about and conaibute to the mator tramrkationaE trcrhd&> ai>d try tostandRrm agilnst dangers. Their parents now have to see-k their consent andnegotiate thetr own Formerly unquestioned authority.

How do parents and teachers tcict lo this tevetsaL where the exercise of
authority is disputed and the 'master'Isno longer acknowledged ^ Some ofchem, !dll mentally adoiewcpt oi cinotlonally Immature- adop( the yoMng
people's fads and imitate the way they dress and ?peak. Those who lose all

Copyrighled material7S • -^FintGioiaiB^voMm
authority over their children, art usually themselves unsure of their own

Idcndcy and valuesn^d transmit didr own nuaiaisc lo ihc young^F<w these dlsiurbed paienls of disturbed young people, there 15 only one

way out, which Is noc Co ttdiat. but tiuly llftcn to and lejrri fiom theirdilldren, even if the chcorlcs d)C children profcaa stRisi seem iinacccptabk tothfm, or unworkibli: and impossible to put Into pnctkc. Tbeic is 1 Deed.

nma more than cvCTh to cstablbh a fruitful inter gencraiiDnal diilogue,[n slmcHi all cullureSp the family Is reigaided as a Eundamentsl social unit, [twillprobably continue as such, but In new clrrum^ances — dii^iojnCcd jnd

shatteied b^ urban liEe, rural eiodtu. emlgiiijon and contUci^p modified bycontrol oviTj

tcptoduoian- with the human couple now iomedm inuncertain bond, functioning according 10 a new pattern of relationships thathas rcpUced the hitherto uncontested parental authority; a family within

which the upholders of naditian are increasingly in conflict with those of anAnierLcan ^lyle modernity.
'In India/ explains Mrs. Parthaswaratht,

New Delhi,

dK principal of > girls' school In

die aisls has already arrlued. The young arc living a perilous

exiitence, lorn between the ciadittonal and the new values and subiectedta

contradictory pressures. They musieoiillrtuillynufce up their mmds and takedecisions In a context where the family used to deddc collectively, with thelastword bclon^^ to the pamarch.'

fndeed, man is Jn distress' Except Tor those who believe and do

good deeds, and command the law among themwivesandconuiujid patient endurance among them^lves.

The picsentmalai5cLs affecting sodetiesH and lixlivkliia}s ate confused by theirbrutal brea}; with the past with no new coheient vision o( i^t future tO foctify
them. 'Who am I; where am I going; why^ Although these are traditionallythe eternal questions they arc now Eclt more acutely than ever and even now,

cannot be answered saOsfacloilly, The turmoil which Is especia.lly - but iwt,

exclusively —affecting young pcoplCn (s expressed in a number of ways which
are identiflahle is symptoms of this raai ik vtvre.

IIen hiierdii d''interdlr«.

(Forbfddlng Is (orbldden.^

Oneof theitogan^of theStudent reTOli in ParliJ?6a.

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TbeHwmmMiMte • 79
fIglnsaEdiscordhjvf grjdudlyjpp«[pdm thfglobdJ soc^ty, mdudngfuf

md bringing young people [ogcther de^itedifferpncesc^ddss.culiuFc iod(suntry. Rock mtiJkcgjdgfU and coll drlnki have forgfd anew. pirallcl ind

tonporary {a long is youth lasts? sodcty and cicaitd whai ihc African
historian |o«fph

KiZerbocalls'homo cocj colons'. These new

D-|bestoi^sdiuie J global phenomenon. The^ are strongly snticied by consumeuBm

widujul, lor die most part, having financial access to k. Furthermore, dim

own fumrc seems to oftct nothing but an uncertain Ii,ftht for s urvival in an
InhospiEabTe global SDdcty inarked by fjoomy peispCLiives such as bruol

competiDon or die ihieai ot uncmploymojL

Ai fot their oldcrf many of diem arc inclined [o returr) to thdr tndirtonal.

cultural and rellglocks roo[», convlnccdp

n lea&r foi die nme being, thai thiswill provide the onl^ way out oF a life of misery and despair. In fact, anotherjspcclof diis^eat tijnsicion IS the felt need to £0 back to the ancient spiritual
principles such as those of Islam oi Cadioliclsm. orto ftnd solace In cula axl

pacudo icliglons This I? csscnaally a manifcstauon of ihcdc^ qucK Eor d)c
absolutCn which Is shared by so

mmy human bclngs^

However In manj cases, thl& need develops into fundamcntalisTn andfanaticism, which is usually an expression of the immense disappointment feEl

Md-M the VVeKett) model cd modcmizjuon. con^umpaoc. cconorJilc
growth and social progress, which has not kept m promljc in mwi developing
countries, and has brought dehumanisTlon In the JndusirlallKd regions.

Moreover, nationalism, wbch has always existed Jn vatious Forms ai^
degrees In ^[ parts of die world, has now acquired more vlgorousdlmenslcnsLn

the East European countries, for instance, the nationalist resurgence has

been dK dilvtng Force In dx disintegration of Communist states, just ai

was the most powerful lever In ihc anticolonial fights. ^inationalism is a double edged sword; based on the c^ concept oF die
earlier.

Itnation state, iicanjll 100 easLl^bccome J JOUiceoFlnmleiance.conflia andexaggerated raasm.
TJie traditional concept of nation

Intcmanon^lization
odicis^ raw

Ispartly disappearing In the wave of— For mstance, the dependence of some countries onmaterials and energy, or for food, mvesiments. technology

TnnaFer and training— whidi a creating new ^lidantics thjr arcoot^vnyi

KCcpicd OI understwxi.

The reUrth and rckiforccmcni of xenophobia and racism can of cout^ be
exp biricd by the millions of JnnmigEancs and reFugeesm Asia, Africa, America

and Europe, who ate seen ai a menace to die sodal equilibrium of a country
and a kiIous threat tom cultural idenuty jusi when this identity a bemg

questioned by its own adepts This phenomencm is all ibe more manifeit In

Copyrighted malerial80 • Tix Bnt Giobai Rrpoiutvm
chii i\ Is hiduced by the (onfu^ion

m fjch individuj] whoi^Facjng th^ biual

emergence of ihf glob jl dimensLomof todjy^ is&i]«. ind by die building ofregi-onj]

and mcc:- region j orgdnizanons &uch ja thr European ConununltyH
I

where pcop]? fcjr they will lose their soul.
Theie two opposjng uends - ihe revival of specific cultural tdenOdes anddie form Jtion oi vjst, regional unjti-arctnrailtycDmpiDblc. The appjrtnc
cottflici arises

horn ihe difficuliy of leconciling tEiein wid^in d^c ^rxi&Qng

pohtialsystemsrjgidly set within The model of the n3Don suie, which cannoi

be adapted \a the present sjtuition and needs to be ccplaced by i solid culiuialworld cominunity, Tbu a socncthiDg very few jic jwaie ofThls picture 15 rather grim, but wc tan point oui iomc poiiuvc signs diatiie emccgirigr loimg people are good at iiaiung le^olunons. no matici

how soon th«y are re ^Integnifd into the mamstream. It wouldbedifEicukio
forget their role jn Algeila. Africa, Chile, China, Romania an-J dv Soviet(JnloOn CO mention |uat i few countries where regimes have been overturnedby popubr provst,

The human malaise appears to be a normal stage In this great traruiikin.
Eteblith cannot uhe place jmnnediatel^ or without patn. We cannot dlsregaid
the dlversLty of wcieties and cultures, discount the burden of tradition, or
fotgct that words and concepts do noi alw^y^ have the samedifferent contexts and languzgei.

meaning tn

A quest such as thu, fbi a new and nuieharnronlous mcicty Tnusr nai give In no the cempotloo -of seeking unanimity.

by Ignoring disagreements, or admir to defeat beEore the battle begirif on
seeing die penii of such an ambitious and diEfLcultundenaking. However, thehuman malaise is also a reflection of the present dangerous march towards a
schizophrenic world.

Toavrdi 9 icirkcphmuc itvrid

How can we speak of a global socjety when to many conuadictory forces
are

CKcrGsmg their power on soceties and indtvLduais tossed about in a.

huntcanc of events*

We already have one iotx in 3 two world system

which has replaced the three worlds we have spoken about so facilcly in our
speeches, aitldes and tepotti The chreeworlds-Thclndusiilaliiedone, thesecond one mainFy con stiEuted by die Communistcounu'ici of caateinEuiopc

and the undcrdcvdoped Third Wcffid— arcDo more.

Tbc second wc^ld asiuch is disappearing. The term 'Third World' has llcde
relevwwe.Snce Bandung and the beginnrngofihe movement of non aligned
countries In 1^5, Is anything much left in common between the Asian Dragons
and Bangladesh,., and Halil> Between Morocco and Kuikina Faso^ And In
Brizil.

between the uuealihy fendunrlalEjcdrcglomDi Mo dc Janeiro and Sao

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal;

The Human Maiauf • SI
Paulo and th? north-«st of ihe coimliy where people ue suffeiljig (ramsi^rvdUon Jitd mjlnumcon/
Diversities oE Interests aie. of course, as obvious within countrjes

legtaas as on ibe

Jntcm^tioEtjl

scene which cancems lU beie.

and

Deep

dichoiomtes existing In iItho St jilcoun [Ties, muluple standards of behavlDut,and hypocritical scnoni irs much ihf ^am^ wirhin and among natloru.
RccoiKl]|JllaEi of inteiesis on the national scale would hivc to be sought aspart of the global haimonization proces.

Invlewofthis we shot] Id note soin-e of the more distressing <Ii?parltiej andunresolved are^ o£ conflict which ave relevani to the world loenei— the dUparicy between the nchand the poot wldi an

IncieasEng number ofpeople living bekiw the line of atMO-Jutepoveity, (leu than list 370 pet year
Jot one bllbon peoEJc in 190O|— the gTo^vjng

dijpariry between thwe who have accc^ to kixjwiedge >aA(nfoimaiioii jnd those whc do not:— chedlschmlnatlonnotonl^againstreligiotuotethnicinlnoiftja, butalsoin
SO many <ounQi«p ^Inst aid people,— theequal d1«pen$a don of|unke;— Uckof cqualtl^ht^ jndduOn. ofequilpdvilegeindtespon^ibiliiy:— the of balance between
and— the dispa^Kv between economic growth and theof— the caring community vetsus the impccwnal welfare— the of bjian« between material
necdt,
abser>ce ofEachsocialdiscipline

license;qualitylife;

state;

LiCk

an^J spiritualJn addition, we should mention various gaps that aj^ contributing to thehuman m^biie, for example, dwUd; of under sanding b«w«nthcdiic^ndthe muses, the separation between science and culture, and the conflict

between rationality and mtuiGon.
There arc a vast numbei of dJfteteiKes between human beings and thesehave hitherto been regarded as being rreconcilabtc nffcrcnces In values and1

in cthtcal Interpret tron are ptesenr throughout the fabric of world society.

Once agjin^ we reach the conclusion thai only through the uitquc3lloiili;g
acceptance all over the world of a common code of elbicSp directed towards
the survival of the race and the living planet, can divergent Intcresta be

harmtxilzed or, at least, mutual tolerance be thieved.

MoKof ±c fdccuol thii milai^e dte not new Whdi: makes diem part of this
,

first

global revolution is the worldwide dimension that characterizes them.

Auteursrecfiteiijk beschermd materiaal

82 • The First Giohal^RtPoiution
even jf they exist io varying degrees Indifferent places Thert is no doubt thatthe present nends ^nd duejts we are contending with are induced b-y a ioicof mind influenced by both the globahty of these coniemponry situations

and the fears and aggress iv^ncss of oar felJow hutnanSr

The Challenge
iUcvct in the coursr

d hlsrory his huininity been faced wlih so many rhrcau

anddingcrs — caQpali^unprcpucdinm J world whcr^ tim^ and disancr
have been abolished, and where min is sucked inio a global cyclone of
CLjnTu&lon.

swidjng with seemlEigJy unrelaied factors, ihc cau»c» and ihc

consequences oJ which form an Inextricable miic.

We have, in the preceding

chaplers, set out a number of causilbctorMbenLostlinporQnt of which are

inequlubk ctonomit giowdi, dctcrionDon m govcminte ind die opaaLy lagovern, uncertain globj] food security an-d A3[er avaibbilirv, environmenQ]

damage and etseigy ^horuges, populauoo growth and migraOons. and die
upheaval of world geosmtegic iacts. All diese (actors are interdependent^
interactive and ccxisQiute what bas been called the world ptoblenutique by

the dub of Etome,

Though die public ha^ acquired a relatively belter grasp of these facts,
awareness of some of them is all loo often coupled with the ignorance of otherhas. which ue lu less impoiisn t on^s. as welE a of tho true breadth of eachof diem and the tnteractloi] between ibem.

We must also ttote chat theclemenu of the new pioblematique do not strike all people In the same wjy.
Seme, such as [he dangers threatening tRjr environment, affect mar^ind as awhole. Otheti, luchasfhcpcpulaiion explosion In die countries of the South,
apptir to be of moic naitow concern, but have icpctcuaions of varying
degrees oi intensity on every country in the world without exception.
Finally, at the coming turn (^ the century, manttnd is t>verwhelmed by therange of the difficulties confronting it from all sides^ overwhelmed - and theword Is not too sttong — becau$e the tradidonil structures, govemmenis andmsDtuQons can no longer manage the pEdblcmj In dicit present dlnncnsions.

To make things worse, the archaic and unsuitable sEruciure£ are ihernselves in

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

84 • T/xFmt

GUM lUvoluam

the midsT of j ihk moral q{\%\%. The dtnppeannce of vjIuc ^y^iems, thequcsikonln^ of uvJlilom, i^collipK of idcoLoglcs. ihe absence of a gbbai
vision.

[he limits of (be current pracOces of demooacy— dll conirlbuEr to thr

void confronting

focietics,[ndividuih ftel helpless, cjughl, js il were,

between the rise of pievlomly unknown pedis on the ooc hand, jnd an]

ncjpaciy to rnolvf \hc complex lssu» in dmf jnd itiack the roots of evil,

not just lis consequences, on [he other hand.
Suieswith consiiiuncRiil

bws andrightsvkoUie mcemaHonal law

whenever the matter is solely one -of naoontl iniercsi. This [s not real ly new
but the magnitude of the consequences In ui interdependent world IS loally

fKW dnd ^lobilly vJubJc, KcLigitmi ohm sctvc as in ceclik for fnofeldal
5Uife. ChristUns massacre other Cbrisdans in lielaiid or Lebanon in the nameofrehglous beliefs without thij having anything whatsoever to do with faich in

the Cod of the beatiiudes. How car we not be concerned, along wldi many

Arabs and Muslims, about the holy wars conducted in the name of Allah,

which cast no moie than a ihin veil over the ambitions of war -chiefs who lltde

beed the teachings of the Koran? How can we not wonder, along with many
Israelis,

about the confusion of the religious misiSioii of the people of Israel

dcsaibcd in the Bibk *ilh the offertstve aftncxaiion polity of a government
which is shamelessly violating the United Nations laws to which they havesubscribed, at least In writing^

The Taw of the |ungle may have been on the decline, but Its recent
resurgence shows }ust how ^gile world balance has remained. Such fragilitylies i\ia in thehc^m ^nd \tx minds of men. the uftimpotnit cid:£ens of

helpless nations. What we observe today is a general malaise which strikes

men with stupor, paralysis and unnamed tears. Will we let outselve^ bet:rushed by a prob-lcmatique that seems to demand superhuman efforts, whenwc ourselves are at Itsrom^ Will we let ourwlvcs be turned away fiom thereal sokes and take refuge in a lite on the margin of society ot in i quest for|)ersonal success, ignore our individual sodal responsibility' MusC we abandon

ourselves to a sort ot fatalism thatwould consider the slow decline ofhumankind as inevitable or Insutmountable?
This is the formidable challenge we are ^Ing today.

We shall now try to

examine the possible responses to this challenge. A global challenge IC^UlEO
a global approach-

TlinBniKpOurllv«runoul,amJye[ w^dTE ijn^blp to overcome our'lablf urge for acqulrinv more dnd more wordly possessionsr

Ad ShdnkdfdcliarydI&6\ century Hfndu pTillosoprt^r dnd uini

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

PartUThe Resolutique

Introduction

Wt rrLfif mJongfr taa for lomorrDif-,ii

Kds lo \x invenEed.

Wha[ coii$Utiif« out ibJllfyTD take cfF'Cctli'c action^ OfBdilvocabulat^doa
not always suffict to dtFlne new situaDons and new irchnologla. Wc
somedmes have no choice t>u[ co Invent new woids which expicu newconcepG ot new mcibodologle;.
Such was the case of the 'world problemail<jue' > term si^cned by theClub of Rome when It W3& founded in VkA. 3[\d the force of fict:^ hi^ m ^de|[universal. Since then, progressively Increasing awareness ol dnumber ofelements of the problematlque has led to an unprecedented Intcnutloial

phenomenon; Increaalngnurnbcrsof conferences, seminars and symposlurm
In the private as well as the public sector have been prLmarjLy devt^ed to thedisru&sjon of^ drvelopmcoi

of poof countrlci. I( would rxii be corrnrt tosay that such meetings have had no rcmiii and no bcnefldal effects. The
figures published In an official lepoil of the Canton uf Geneva are js follows:[n 1977. ^J.ooo experts took part In 1,020 nxcilngs on the Third Wotid,

reprcsenUng 14,000 worfc sessions The oi luc meedngi can be added Co theregular day to day work of the 20,000 international d.vU servants of the 110

tntcmalional organtalloils that have their headquarters in Geneva.

I-

CumemporarT Frendi phlloKiphci

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal.

86 • The fmt GMml Eipolution

Wc mujtal» include the ihousands d mutiiiEi held^iii ihc IMiied Kiiions
bcadquaitcts Jn New York,

WoiLd B^nk in Washington, by theEuropean Community In Btusfebn In the FAO' In Rome ind In counties
Jtthercgk)nj] ind jubrcgjondl ^g? Jidn eh cbe drvrloping rountrln. Jn thineen

yoTs, ihfrf has been a runaway Increase in ibe number of meetings of thissort jnd no one has ever raalled ihe budgecs thus sunk Into[^c fares,

luxury hotels and thf pubbcaOon and dlstrlbudon of sundry reports andrecommenibtions. Not only hu llttlcpf ogress bwn obstrvrd In thf fidd. but

wc must also acknowledge that poverty, t^m^ic dnd nulnutntkjn hav?
conUnued Co tnaeasc in a great nuny countries In the South. Aji analogous

phcromcmm hds been observed more reccndy where aivlronmenfal
piobiems aic concerned, mvoiving in jncredibie multiplication bciof

Without bdng totally exempt from altdctsm in this context Itself, d^ Clubof Rome noticed that

tee was no progress from one meeting to die next,

with some ETLcetuigs yielding often debatable and sometimes even mediocre
results. It

wu thus felt that][was no Longer acceptable, at le^st ^i F^r 3S theClub was coiKemed, to speak ot the problematique without formulatingplans and procedures that would solve the problems set forth and analy^.

The global approach to problcrru a& required by the problemarique ImpLej ineed for a corresponding approach with a global perspective at every level ofsociety to inieractive solutKjnA destined to xXvt the problems. Therefore, a

new n^ethodology or a new and purposeful ana^l; intended to be an annver
to the world probleniatiquc Is cxacdy what dw Club of Rome means to adopt
and call die
F-rovldlng
transitionwM

rw/utuiuc.

conaete solutions

tothe complex problems of the gteat

we are undergoing may be well beyond our capacities but It Is ourduty, at least unto ourselves, to search for solutions and saaiegles which leadtoeffidcncy and equity.

We musitakc the IniUitivc In overcoming situations

by LnKm^Oonal dnd naUonal buietuoKks, and by
conventional and negative attitudes to change Our task In also to encourage
diat:

die blockedsocialand human innovation which, whe-n compared

to

its

cousin,technological Innovation, has definitely been treated ^i j poor relation of ifie
family.

We would like to emphasize once a^ain thai by the term'tTKilullque', we are not suggesting a znetiiod of ^ttjcking all the elements ofthe problematlque at the same time in all iheir diversity. This- in any casewould be imposlble Out ptoponl Is rather a sbmulcaneous attack on Its main,elerrrenti with a careful comideridon in each case of redproal 1mpaa& h^^meach of the others.

\

Focd Jnd A^culnirr Or^uJailon [of UN)

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd irrateriaal

.

The Resduu^ui: Introduition * 87

Whai arc the valircs and goals on which action must be hascd' The world
rcsdutjque includes the need for adopting ccitain values Founded on theiMoM vataD ot humanliy. that are sketcbll^ emerging as a moral cdde for
Klion ind bchdvkiur. Sudi codn and vdlu« hive Lo constitute the bash of
IntemalLonal reldbons dnd the source of in^ii iration for decisions made hy ibe

main saors on diis pbnet,^vith

duf regard

toiculimj] diver^my jnd

pluralism. The resolutique also sucs^cs die absolute necessity Co seek concrete
results In

pdorky areas oftheproblematiqur, keeping In mtnd that the time

factoi is becoming essentia]. Any problem thar remains unsolved pioduces indue couisc Ittevpislble sliuaQons, some of which unnot be solved even In a
global framework

The Club of Rome and Its Individual members have always felt tha.1 apartfrom their research work they also had to take the Initiative or become
associated with others. Fot: Instance, the Club members are involved In the[ntemadonal Institute for Applied Systems Analysis {.IIASA), the Foundadon
fct intctnaQonil

Training (FlTI

Paitneiship Initiative ilPI J

and mote rcccncly^ in the Jntcrnad<wl

We must also mention the Sahcl Operation against

desertificaDon and in favour of development, with the Involvement of the
local

populabons. which was designed and launched al the request of anumber of African leaders during the Club of Rome meeting at Tuundc,
Cameroon in 1986.
The use of the resoluuque applies to urgent action on prlarines and
Immediacies. This does not exclude other types of acnon, which though not

Immpdiacplynecrsury, can aim foi long teim results. In [he lifting uLiutJonsof the present, there \i a paramount need to develop methods of decision

making In conditions of uncertainty.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

The Three Immediacies

7>

The myn^d^iiands -of change which togfihrr arc constituting thp

world:cvoluDini hive to be undcrsioodp rcldCcd, oppa^d. encaufagcd diverted co,other ch^nncts. or Gs^] mi Idled. Thtre can b? no umpk solution or package ot
sotutions tothe tangle of probtems. K-ence we Introduce the co7K:epE of ihe

resoludque, an approach which con&isD oFa sim ultaneous and comprehensive
attack on die main problems a! cLvr^ kvd. It is coherent in that it arrempts to

look

at

the consequences of possible solLilk>ns to particular elementi ofdifficultyon all levels, oi as- many levels as possible. No comprehensive

mcchodology exists foi such an approach;liruns counter to traditionalraediods of planning, and existing instirudoiul snuaures
inappropriate forit.

Yet therel^nt ^Ingubrly

no aliemaOve. To tackle

the gbbal

ptablematlque pioblenx by problem and on a country-by country basis canonly worsen the situation. The n^'^l' chat faces us Is, therefore, to grasp aihoosand netdes at once.
|[IS

icuc thdt

much thought has been given in recent years to the

management of complexity, and some elements of a sultabJe approiach
have emerged, inparticular,

jay

Forrester's studies of large systems,

described Ln his books, Ufian Du^tnia' and Incdu^nd^ D^mu^' ^which led toTlir Uiiii^ to

Qicvlh] have much to offer,asalso Ln ^jplema die DnEix' by|acqu« Lcsoufne,

1.

FoiTftCci. I*i92.

Foircjtei. 1061

i.

I,c«umc. L9J3.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Missing pageMissing page

The Thrte ImmtduKtes • 91
bf camt mort and mor? capital imoislvc jnd r^uircd fewer workei5Thus, even the parttdl Liquid jiion oi [beums Induidy brings m^n^pEoblcms, and quick conversion of piano and of whole IikIuaTtIm xq the
production of omsiirner

md odier clYlUin goods has to be conskleted

uigcndy. In the USSR and China, large scale dcmobilladon and conversion
effo-ns havebeen Inlctiied a» a maoet of nadonal policy jnd dlrrctrd, as

expected, by die centre In bolh these countries ihece was jn enormous
scarcity of

conjumer goods, agncultur^E machineiy. Tnedical equipment,machine tools, and die like, so that conversion Erom arms production to the
produojon ofsuch goods was seen as highly desuabler Such endeavours haveubcn plicc in conditions of minim^J. pubhc jccounablllty and economic
chaos, giving little usfful experience tocountiles with a market economy [liscertain, however, that the retraining of soldiers and armamenc wt^kers toprovide them with new skills and new jctitudes is diffkuLi and insufficient.
rte contrast. In the Western market -economy countries, only Sweden has

developed an kcIvc policy of conversion; moac of die other* have adopted a
wjlt-and^sec attitude- Nevertheless the conversion issue Is being discussed
actively in most European countries, except In France despite the htx thatmuch of LIS weapons manufacturing tapidiy, mosdy state owned, is alreadylying idle,

Convecsion of arrns plants to constiucUve civil uses is thus the currently
accepted remedy, but in the industrialized countnes

thispresentsm^nydifficulties. Existing ^^aa fsirc attitudes assume that the market forces will t^ke

arc of the mnsition. This may be so, but the mafor consequence Is likely to
be a lot of waste ^- resulting
extensive

unemployment.

^m abandoned and unwanted plants andState owiied

n:ianufaciurlng

labilities

andconuacton chat have served the needs oF the military foe long are often
lnca.pablc of handling new manufactures in a market environment. Grassroots

anion on [he part of employees, n^e unk)ns, local communities, jihI so on,
holds out some hope In a few countries, but is unlikely to secure sufficientInstitutional backing in the absence of clear governmental policies. DItea

intervention by the state is unlikely and wouU in

my case be Imptacdcal

because of bureaucratic rigidity. HowcveTn the state must play an acdve lole.
in view of the jctlous nature of the priority changes involved. The snccesis of

any compiehenslve convetsion schenv will depend heavily on the availabilityof extensive retraining bdllties which -only governments can provide. It may

wel] be that governments will be forced Into taking action by the pressure of
public opinion and giassroots agltadon. This ts anotbec example of the needkn people's power.

The question must now be raised as to what the products of the convened

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Missing page

TTk Three Immedtaiia • 93
Wto A bewildering

technological nightmare, impenetrable even to thedecision -mjking polsEklans. These scientists are isolated behind walls ofscciccyr They live dnd wozli outside the InCematJonj] wentlfic community.

Aldvjugh duy must include nuny of the best brains, their nam« are largely

unknown. Unlike other scientists, tbdr Eewards and presdge do not comefrom sflistf of jchievement arvd the rwpcct of their pwrs In the inwmaaonal
scientificcommunity, but from competitive success within their restrictedcircle.

Whatihenwillhappen to these people in J sitLution of disarmament' Will
ihcy be convened and )otn the ranks of academic and indiisiiialsclenusts, or
wdl diey remain ai ih^ir work devising still more deadly weapons, hopefully,

never TO be used U is too early to say, but till now the letter seems to be thermost likely outcome, probably coupled wid^ decreasing employment dnd

The l«0 yearbook of

resources.

SIPRI

Lthe

auihoniatJve

Stockholm

Intcmanonal Peace Heseatch InsOtute) asserts that there Is no evidence Eh^iiher« will be i slower pace of technological dev«lopmeni in the milttary arej.
This key element of armament manufacture IS largely outside publicscrucinv

and concern Since It withdraws so many of the best scientific and engineering.

brains from fully

amstrucUve acuvicy, it ls Imponani that this matter js

discussed and the situation made known to all.
In conclusion on thistheme, wc summarize some sugg'estlons for action.

Feat of nuclear war between &k superpowers has receded, but die limited
use of chcmicji. biologicjl and nuclear weapons in loal wars remains inalarming possLblhty.

It is widel y believed that several counuies alr-eady posses^

a hidden nuclear capacity.

We suggest therefore that a new appeal be madefor fidiicftnu it ikt nfn-fjohfnaiioii iJtil^. and for willingness on the part of thesignatortestoaccepi tnternationalmspecnon.
of nfgotidDt?tis

iimfd

We also plead foraspeeding up

u destroying research on chemical and biologtcal

weapons.
In vtcw of recent agreements on diurmament and the prospect of further
progress in diis area- we appeal to all governments with sizeable but dec finingarms industries to msututeiVliKfffkvt/iTrElvrUfrrKiiUn of these. Can we hope

be to the mdnufacture of products th^i willcontribute to the health and welfareofd^ir people' Such policies should bethat

thh reconvcr^icin

will

evolved and Implemented

wjth theadvice of bodies

which include

progressive mdustriallsts ^and not only those from aim-amenl manufacture)

togetherwith worker$' reptesentatlvcs andconversion

policiesshouldbe shapedingovernment

officials.

The

recognition of the chiinging

nature of Industry and with due regard to the conslrarnts imposed bv

Auteursrechteljjk beschermcf matenaal

94 • The Fmt Global R^voiutwn
cirth-wdrrtiing and othcr cnvJroEiiH?ntdl hlurdsr In aU &uch

Khrmn in

cucntial clement should be the srning up of leiiaining schemes to provide

workers with the necesuiy new skills.
In

con&idcrlng the ridtpii^ni

iinamal ani elhu

sf

TOMna scl

Eecc bydiminished military expenditure- governments should give priority to the

Imptovcmcm ot ihc socUl ^miautc. In p^tUcul^r. grc^i tffor b i\^ requited to
Improve the quality of educdllon.

inorder to provide cttzens with theknowledgeindskilknecesssry For achieving fulfillment In work and Insure in
the new woild which is emcrgmg. Instriving For world harnnony, part oE theresources should be used Eo augment existing assistance to developmentud

For tFie alleviation oF world poverty.

The present historically signlFlcant situation of t^ittAt should be used toreveal and curtail the evils oF the arms trade. In]9£6, the president oF the Clubof Rome, on the bails oFflmcmofandumswi by Eduatd Peiicho Pttsldcm

Reagan and General Scaetary Gorbachev, put forward j proposal foi chc |omt
action o-f the Two supcipowcis
llmlDng the sale oF arms to the poorermcoumiics While there wa$ only a formaUcknowlcdgcment from the WhiteHouse, a personal and -constiuctvc reply was scnT by

Mi

Gorbachev,

folbwed by a mcmorandgm oF fgrxbci [cflcctions On \\k sup^esuwl The
correspondence was given Full coverage by the press and television m USSR
and East Europe, but was hardly noticed by the press in the West It seems toiJMhatihcilmel!T]pefo[[hcrevl«lofthlsp[oposal,natonlyin[hcLJSAand
USSR, but alsom other major aims exporting countiies- Recent events

demonstrate the Futility of the evil iradeandhowilcanhave a lethal backlashwhen the turnof events gjvcs rise to unforeseen conflicts. One has onl y to cite
the success of the Fiench manufactured Exocet missiles in sinking Britishba ttleshi ps during the Falklandswdi. or the situation oF the ti oops oF Westernand Arab countries in Saudi Arabia facing Iraq's sophisticated weapons sold to.

them bv the Russians, the French and the British among orheis. To sell gun^for Immediate moncuty gam to buyers who may inicnd lo kill the scllci
seems to be the uliJmaie insanity.
Inrhe long run.

rhe security of the planet

if

Is

to

be assured,

themanufacture of arms For the ecor^omic gain oF individuals or countries will
have to be conttolled. ILesidual needs For world policing will have to beprovided under the supervision of the United NjDon^. T\\\i may not be
required for tomorrow, but there Is nevertheless a need for an early reviewof the whole pioblem,

all die

moce so since the confrontations in the Persian

Guif will have long term consequences.
Tffwayds an envavnntmt^

ivrpjval

Most of the successful activity

in recent years for the

pioienion of the

Auleursrechteiijk beschermd materiaal

TheThtcImnvdviaa '95
pnvironmmthas be? n in rtdudng or ? limiruCing pollution and othf r ^orms ofdfCcnoratiofi; lE hjs bftn curjilvf rallvr th^ prrvcnOvf Whilf this must.

conclnuc, the mafn emphasisIn

mmt be in piCTcnting The

the future

development of the mjcropollutton which wc- have dcsciibcd earlier, to thelevel at which Its effecls are irrei/ersible. By hi the most urgent of thesf Is

global warming which chicaitni (he world's Nonomic ^nd ioaal jyflnn.

PrevenDOf] of globdl waiming tepc«eni± dik of the grcjtea chaJlengn

which humdniiy his f^ed.jnddenuTid&inlmerrLJtional effort. Four linn ofjiQck aie lequiied:— redMcqofl of rhe global emission qf arbtti dioxldcj which

will

man d

reduction In the lase of fossil fuels;—

affbrestatjon, especiallym :hccn:»plcs-— development of hemaOve umrces of energy;— conservation of energy and the dcvclopmcm of grcaict efficiency in
a

Its

use

We hall bax out diKusion of tile c^ibon diaxidc situatjon on die Toronrofchanging atmosphere' target of reducing emiuion of this gas by 20 per ceni by
the year 20OS

However- In view of the urgent need of the developing

countries ro provide energy for their citiiens, and for agricultureindustries,

andthe industrialized countries will have to make even larger

rcduciiDti^ in their use of f«iil fuels—

let usuy Kl per cent. Moreover,recent estiznates indmic that this is a very conservative figure.
Initially,

the highest prbricy musE be given to energy conservitlan andefficiency in the transmission

and use of energy In every sector of die

economy.Therearevery large potential savings to be made which would, in^ny case, be economically UKful and jDaiegically necessary it^ view of thev;.tne:abllity of the industrial countries to the cutting off of oil supphes. In

general, the market forces should be helpful here, but at present, incentives

are insufficient and will have to be increased

market barriers to energy con^rvaDon

There are also many nor

In the domcsnc sector, for example,

the per capita consumption of energy in USA arxl Canada is approximately

double that of the West European countries with an approximately equjvalent standard of living- To achieve the necesury savings here will require

fundam^nuil char^ge! in the habits of millions of Individuals, i i^ue&iion eo

which we shall return later.

The immediate need,

therefore,

is

for

the launching ofamassiveworldwide campaign to pron:>oic energy conKrvation and efficiency in tt^

Auteursrec Intel ijk beschermd matenaal

96 • Tht Bra GU^tai Revoiutifm
UK, This alone can give us some breaihing spjce before wc hcc di? iTure
inciactabic problems of tndustilil d<i|ijSTmcni. To be successful k wlj] need jdeirly expressed political will on the part of governments and suaiig public
suppoti,

Swtiching from oil and coal toother fuels hu jIso been suf^ested, but apartfrom natuial gas there are few altemaDves which couid be brought Into use
quIckly^ Naiuial gas ha^ theadvani^ thai m combusuon die methinepi^uCcs les& carbon dlojtide per unit of energ'y genented ascompared to the bngcr chain hydtocatbons of oil ^nd coal. Convctslon toruturjl ^s Is relatively simple, so this may bca useful measure aliho^jgh ^rcat
care would have to be \Akcv\ to prevent leakage, since methane i& itself agreenhouse gas, being much more active nwlecule hy molecule than carbon
tnoltCuif,

diOKldf.

ThcK

ate,

however

Fundamental l^uc

Js

r

only

palliatives

hoMF to achieveaordelaying

measures,

The

nussTve jcducdoci in fosil hjel

combusOon tn industry. ]t is frequently Jtsted that the transltktn lo thepost-industna] society will lead to considerjble energy saving. Ei is 'ue rhar
chc miaocleotonic techmlogin dtc not energy Lnt^nsive, jnd thai theirmain applications are in the growing, imponani iniornuEton seaor,ratherthan in heavy ii>dus try where, however thtough control techniques they can,contribute gceatly to energy erficlcncy.
^n

We have to cemember. after all, thatan Infotmatlon domlrtated society we shall still need heavy machinery,

chemicals arul othc^ f^diOonal manntactuTCSj |ust as agricultural products

were still needed after the Jndustrial Revolution had l^en over.
Reduction in the use of fossil fuel bv industry, M. least in the ^liort andmedtum term, requires ekther considerable technological mnovaQon, both inmanufaauring methods and in the energy efficiency of those in present use,
or else a drastic reduction in Industrial activity. This last would necessitate aradicalreonenQEiont>fthe ecoriomy taking into account the

intricate

relatkjnships of economic activity, ecology and technology. Thi& is not a task

which govemmcfiB can be cjtpecwd to perfbtm effectively: It cjIU for new
forms of government industry cooperation. Hae the Japanese model may

have something to teach the West.

A number of European countries, nottbly Norway, Sweden and theNetherlands, are already discussing these problems seriously and determining
largcc^ foi [hdr national contribudtvis towards thf

rrducnim of the global

carbon dioxide. SMreden, tor example, has undert^en to maintain carbon
dioxide emissions at ine ^-9SS level while retaining its policy of phasing out.

nuclear power, tiow these targets can be achieved Is another matter. These
Initiatives ace Indeed a useful start and similar exercises are neededm other

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

TheThne imtnediaaa • 97
countries, Coordiodt-ed cFfons jIso r^Jst di the InKmabonal level and ^r?

already being ^^udicd by (be EB:. The sociaJ and economic oim&e^juenccs-ota

dnsnc cuning back of IndusQlal acDvlLj are alarming and wiJl be lahen up
later

The influence of die devebping counoies on
increase rapidly with dfTMgraphic
ID share the[he environmenr uill

md indumial growth, and diey witl haveburden of &ubili2lng die gbbal cbmaie. Development In theseoiuntrlH wiil inevitably inaease the demand [or energy and much of this anonly be provided by fossil fuels. The Increased use of blomass through new
biotechndogi^s 1^ hoped for, but wemu^remembrr thdEthEstoogenerdln

carbon dioHkde. Apin increaffdnumfjcn will mean gieat^t use of wood foi

domesDcpuiposes,uid the burning of wood hjsigreicei green fiouseeflea
than chat of coaJ. lincigy efficiency h thus oi primary Jmpoicance in thedeveloping countries too. So Br, Endustiializatkin In these countnes hs beenmodelled on the pattern estabLidicd by the lE^ustrlaUzed counnies of theNorth, If thmgs continue in (his way. the rnulo will be diustious for the
courttries in question and for the woikJ ai a whole. It Js therefore tmporunt
ihaTi theimpioved cleaner technologies that the Industtiallzed countries are

striving tor are made accessible to the c^eveloplng world, mcEniives given for

their adoption<

and aid offered in their irnplemeniation^

So far we have CDnccntiated on ca[bondto:ildc, die cU»k greenhouse giSp
bul a wfurle range of other minor components of the atmcisphcre contribute

ibo HI an equal e:iient to the greenhouse eEfecc, Methane Is one of the mostimportani among these, and its origin requires much nnre research. Oxides
at nitrogen arc also critical. Their malE^ soutce Is ftom agticulture, especiallyfram the present excessive uK of feitJitzers. This also laises the question ofenergy use

In agfjculture,

which has increased gready in recent decades.

Theie is a pressing need for the agricultural author lites to take up the questionof making their Industry much less energy mipnslve

md of iCTcning to moreorganic systems. Thts-lsalso desirable because oil prices, and herxe the priceof nitrogenous feitlllzeis, ate likely to be much higher in the coming years

WhjtpverI

fffg^rr ttw, Earth, may flrat Fi^vpqukk gnjwth again, O

purffkr, may are not j^iure [hy vit^l^ or rFiy h«drt.

Hyinn [othe Ejnh', Arftarvj Vedi^OOO BC

We have already stressed the need to halt deforesiatlon as the anothermeans of carbon dioxide reduction. It Is estlnnated that for the world as a

wbokp d qudner of the emitted arbon djojiidc tcmdins due to dcforestaDon;
wj[hin the developing countries taken as a whole, it is one half and li Laim

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Missing page

The Three Immaiiaaes • 99
measuring, Eorciampk, tht cipKilyotcounErinroFsuppoctiti^humin jnd
anJrrul popuL^iion^, oi the vUbilliyothumin and oihes ^y^t^ms. The belipF

dut monciary management or even manlpulaUon can leadto aand evaluation of groWiih and development needs

accounting

propertobeeradlcaied^

Energy,w

the other handnlj the dMujng force In an economy; ffloncyis

simply lis surrogate. There is surelv i strong jrgunient at thissQgeof hunun

development tor deivising a new economic cheory bsed on lEic flow ofeneri^y.

We hear many propo^^h for energy r^xatjonwhkh arc prompted bypresent difficulties. Thoe demand comidcmion. Intctctlng ptopin^l^ haveilso been m^de fot cacigy to be UKd

rutEonal^

local

n the bsiti fot general lajtation, both

Many posLblllifei arc ^^ning up In this new field, and theClab of Rome has pioposed i nudy on the various suggesOons for energy
taxation for ihe purpose of cocitroUlng the energy camumpilon in tbc Northand ensuing diat in the South development should be on the basis of clean
cnergy]n concluslCRi on this tfieme, w/c summarize some sugge^clons for acnon.
ItISurgent thataworldwiJe campaign ior energy conservdtkjn andefficiency In Its use be launched. To be succeuful. this will require that world

leader; strongly ejiprcu their convlcQon dial this Is nece^sarv jnd show die
pollDcal wilJ to implement It. ft would be appropriate that the scheme be

liurKhcd by the United NationsIn

association widi

the UnJied Nations

Envitonmenr Progrunme [UNEP), the World Meierologial Organlzanon

andUnescOr A corollary would be the xtttng up In each country of an Energy
Efficiency Council to supervise the operation on the national scale.

The global nature as well as the seriousness of the environmental crisis,
especially that of ear^ warmlngn indicates the

need

for

a coherent anda)mprf hrtuivc artack at die iE^temational Irvrl jnd n ±e level cif the United
Nations. Wc require much more Information about the complexities of thenatural system and specifically on the detailed mechanism of the greenhouseand ozone deplenon effects. Equally, an estimate of the probable tmpaa ofthese and oihcr phenomena on the future climate of particular regions is

uigcndynccesMry.Wcareixnconvlnccd. however, thai thoc requirements
for research,development and monltoilng argue for the creation of yet

another UN Agency

1^ need could be met by strengthening the existing

agecKles. especially those mentioned above, and by glvlrig them a mandate toenable them to cooperate In i pindy planned- compicbcnsivc programme ofresearch.

Even more urgeni is the need to create a competent high level body toAuteursrecfitelijk beschermd matenaal

100 • The First GUAtU H/rvoianon
consider in depth and ov« 2 long nm< fram?

.

the impact of the micro

pollution phenomcnj on the economy, the society jnd che indivlduil. In vJcw

f the nature of the Tnmy ^ceii of

this problem and the coTnpleKtty of theIntenction^ between them, it is hird to see how this couJd be accomplishedcfFccdvely In ihe conventional mmneiH hy a gtoup of poUdcal p^sonilttie;
sitting In

New York. We suggfU, ihpiefoic, that (he opportunliy should beoken to breik with indlban In cieadng a group oF outstanding persons—pollocilfigures.^o, but idnfcffccd by IndlvlduaU from the fields of Industry,

economy and sdcnce. Et Is not sufBclcncthata^up consisting exclusively ofpolltidaos should be chaiged with thh a^k, thar 1$ so vital foi the future ofhumanity no mtvxx how well briefed chey mtght be, by scirniMs dnd oihea
in their various countiieSr [t Is necessary [or independent experts to sit withtihem aiound the conference tible. Churchill dtd nocgei

Itquite right whenbe Slid th^t scientists should be on tip bui not on cop.'
Security IS no longer exclusively a mitier oEprevHiiionof uvar, Itieverslble

ctivutinmcnui dn^rucdon Is becoming ^ ^^ucii 10 world sccuilty tn the utac

magnitude. To meet the Eteeds expressed abovt. we dierefore lelteiate thereconun«ndatlon

In

the Club of Etome

dcdantlon of I089 that 3 workl

fonfcrenceon the common envlronmentaT iitiperativ^s be held, aimed II thecreation of a Ut^ Environmental Security Council, pariliel la the cuisUng
Security Council EormlllQiymatieEs. This body would not be lestilcted to themembers of the existing Security Council, but would have astrongrepresentation from the dcveloptng countries as well as the nonpolincal

members siiggrsted eitlicf who would uke jn active prt \n die discussions,but would nolp however, be voting members. If not constituted earlier, this
could be a ma}or duel: Qme of the United Nations ConfererKe on Envtronznent
and Develc^mcnl to be bekl kn Brazil kn 1092,
Inaddinon. we propose theoiganiucion, pos&ibly under the auspkcsof the

EnvlronmenQl Security Couiudl, of regular meetings of IikIusctUI Icukn.
bankers and government officials from the five contlnentj. These Global

Development Rounds, er^visaged as being somewhat similar to the Tariff
Etounds of CATT,

Aould discuss the need to harnioniTe competition andcooperation in the light of envlroruncntal constraints.

The piobknu of dd|u&imem to the ic»cncd use of fossil fuels nctcKiatci
the drawing up of national strategies In order to ascertain the fixed
concnbuiion of e^bcDutitiy to global carbon dioxide. This will also Involve
design modified processes arid equipmcntn atx] the
comideradon of -howsdmulaHon of research and development programme for clean energy

systems

We propose theccfoic the aeatioci- partkularly In the Induscriallzed

countries, ofNaOotuI Centres for Clean Technology. These might well be

Auteursrechtelijk bescherind matenaal

The Three Immcdtaaes • LOlorganized in assodadon with c}m rudonaJ eneigy cfBdcncy coundb propo4cd

above.

The urgent need for jn Inlcmlvt cEion to develop allcmaDve energy&0U1CC5 10 paniatl)/ replace bsJl fueU demand} an immedlaie and massive

wotld cfFon. Wt rtcommcnd- therefore, ihai the Unlied NaUom- either
direftly OT through a group of lU agerv^ii^ aivd piograrrtmes, ihoiiid fOHvenean Inicr-govcmmentaisciennELc meeting 10 plan dcomprehensivcAlteinanue

Energy World Project This would enuil considerable rinancial expenditure,with the vatkius element oE an intecTiationjIly agreed programme being
carried out by d^ tatxx. appropriate

centres of ncellence^ In the world,

Irrespealvp of the counir>i in whith. [hey are iltuated. The mattfr 1c so

imponani to the ^vorld. and the need\acmpby rhc bey brains ^ndequipment so cucntidl, that all prirKiples of a n^oiulqiikdproquo between
contributions and bcrxflts would have to beeiduded.

\ network connecting

thcexisdng centres orexceJlence1shl^lyrecomn!>cnded as oppo^io theconstrucOon of a single Iniarutlonal centre with its Incviablc rigidities andburauoacles. The nuclear

fissionoption should b« kept open as an

emergency measure to meet energy lequiremcnts during the transltkmai
phase.

The FAO should be In^tted Ir association wJlh the Consultative Croup of[[iftituus 0^ Agr^cuitutjJ Ete^eaich ^CGIARJ to undertdkc a Audyon cncLgy
used in agriculture, with a view to recommending means of reducing energy
inputs tn agricultuic and, at theagriculturesame timcn of lessening the shareofm the emission of grcenhcrase gases.

All these measures or any ocher equivalent actions cannot be Implemented

unlns the public Is well Intotmed and understands the conscquerKes ofInactloUr

It js

neceuary, therefwe, that concepts of global dcveic^ment.

Including the issues of Industrialization, \x integrated Into educauonai

piosnmmcs which will Include tnstructkin on environmental pnxeokjn,
energy and resource saving, the preservation of cultural values, and nuny

We therefore call on Ur>cso3- Manistcts of EdiKatJon. parents'
associations, television authorities, md odiers to undertake this essential taskother aspects.

/3oT/op«vwf vrrim Mti4(nk^ tiffmen

The third immediacy Is a crucial element In the first global revolution
A number of countries of the South are in a constant scaie of detenoraDon for a
nun:^ber of causes which we will analyse later. According to World Bank
estimates UOQO). one billion human beings rn those countries arc presently
living belo* the poverty line

opposedto- with an Income of lc» than USt "0 » yeai - a

500 million in the early dghOcs.

Itisi^ry likely that die

AuteursrechtGlijk beschermd matenaal

102 • The First GMmiRfPviuaim
aggnviboil of the [»obleEtu ai undfrdfvflopment, poverty, ^minc uMJmalnualbon will pctsfsc iJi the coining yeta. desplK ihe building up oizonao[ circcpckmal develi^nicni.

Here tt Is Importani Co keep in mind che dlFFereni economic levels fromwhich these countries soned out. ^incc. 35 has been stiessed In dils book. Ii Is
no longer corrca Co neat the so ailed Third World as homogeneous.
In pjitkcular, weir? conternedaboulf be leisi developed naironi,mo^[ ofwhidi ire in Afcka. md many of which gurted iheii Lndepoidcncc From diecolonial powers only in die posi World

Wn pcnod. The&e countries eitherII

hid CO son from sctaich, Of iccempi to conveit i colonial economic structure
Inix)

one which had to be otienccd more cleaiLy co dome^dc needs andnational Jntcrests. This entailed diversifying both exports jnd

sourcn offinancial support.

The NlCs [Newly IndmTrlalized Couniiies) of Asia have lad i different
experience, bued on a ^cp^rdtc strategy, and have been remaikably
successful in jdapting to the world economy and In raisfng ihcix own Ijving

sDndards. Other countries, particularly India and China, have quite different
charicterlsdcs from the least developed countries and the dynjinic market

economies of the hdfic Rim. The Latin American counErie^ with 1 ]aaghistory of independence arc nevertheless highlv dcpendcnE on trade In basic

commodiites. At [he ^^me dme. In seven! mafor ases. chev are undergoing
raptd industrtalizatlcRi. Among the ijOa Amencan counLries, a few notably

wti\i economics are siniilar to the lean developed countries of the world.

THi Ii also true of the sirall Island suics of the Cinlbcan.
\n4dt^tittiti if itvdofJUdfl

de'/eioped economies

phiia iniht ftli\

Ivcnl^ m^Tir

Many of (hf least

were encouraged to stact out by investing in huge

Industrial and Infristnictural prefects Involving high construction cosG basedtRi the <apiiaL

bsic

rural

intensive Wc^icin model,

and

small

industryfhcy thereby seriously neglecteddevelopmentthat could havebrought

Immedtare benefit to laigc sectlcms of the popuTailon, In^teid of to only asmaTlminonty of Industrialists. Manyofdiose large investments have failed In
thcLr objectives of development

PolLCLCiadoptcdltom the Western industrial

countries have often cla^ied with local customs and. structures, and have been

teieaed by the very people they were supposed to benefit- People oriented

developmeni was set aside, in favour otprofecis that only rich countries could
afford.

Not only wu this \tic result of th? desire of leaders

to achieve

extremely rapid transfbrmaUon of their economics and societies, but it wasakded. abetted and often proposed by Iniemauorul agencies and bilateral

North -Sou [h programmes.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

ThtThntlmmaliadti • 103
5uch poLdH It JVC roulicd im series of projects of long durations whfch,

among other ibcngs. have lounged m^j caunuics into debt and financuld^order, with litilc folid benefit. Outsundfng imong theK have been the
Urge dams, of which A^wan^n Egypt is d Leading examplCp and many more
eximpln could be pointed out in African Asia and Ladn America, There has
been a CibLogue of djusiers. With pAS l«i»OiU b«lng t>dther learned iv^
understood, hur^reds of duusands of people displaced atid Idi horncles,

epidcn^ dlsea^o dissemjnaied, and local environment
The ecological and human disastris which }uve frequently

water -borne
disrupted.

resulted from [hese large projKti have caused unprecedented financial waste.

Macro project &uch as Itj^pu m hinA and the Nainjad^i pn^ica In [ndia lit
also lelhng examples,
lion and sceel Industries, petrochemical ard^ipbuilding mstallatlans. have mainly proved uneconomkeal and have comein formuch criticism. IMost of these protects have also given too lltde

consider Jtton lo probable environnvnial damage, to the effects o\ population

displacement, manpower needs, mainieiiiiKe, andx on.

many Ciscs. even In the semi 'industrialized countries, mdtiHnai
devdopnientbaKd on irnporrsubsrltudon policies requiring extremely highintariff and non ta.tiff protection,

modern seaors andhas produced great disparioes between thethe traditionally poor rural sectors.

populd^ions have drifted to the big clQcs

Asaresult,w provide cheap labour- pining thealready vast numbers of marginalized labourers also originally from rural areas
living \n subhuman conditions.

Hunser is jshamed of no on? dnj] does not fnr God. Only organlaedand conscious work can nukr it retreu.
a farmer in EUirkina Ytao

Iht ftijlt vt iht iluiTfj. \ki ftMlni und iht btdtmvtlUir The urban population ofdeveloping countries rose from ninety million in lOOO to rtearly one billion in
19S^ and has since been rising al a rale of ever forty million per year.

Two-thirds of the population of Latin America is concentrated in urban
aiea5 while urbanization ill Africa Inaciscd fiom i rate of 5 pci cent in 1900CO:5 per cent In l^S^ 6^ per ceniof the world's total urban population lives in

Asia, where the evolution of the rate of urbaniation IS comparable) that ofdeveloped counciles According to the latest United Nations estimates, thenumberof city dwellers u^ll be about two billion by the yeat 2C00, wtth a 100
per cent mcrease in Africa, a 5D per cent increase In Latin America and a AS percent irKTease in Asia. There are a number of reasons for this.

Auleursrechlelijk beschermd materiaal

ThtThntlmmaliadti • 103
5uch poLdH It JVC roulicd im series of projects of long durations whfch,

among other ibcngs. have lounged m^j caunuics into debt and financuld^order, with litilc folid benefit. Outsundfng imong theK have been the
Urge dams, of which A^wan^n Egypt is d Leading examplCp and many more
eximpln could be pointed out in African Asia and Ladn America, There has
been a CibLogue of djusiers. With pAS l«i»OiU b«lng t>dther learned iv^
understood, hur^reds of duusands of people displaced atid Idi horncles,

epidcn^ dlsea^o dissemjnaied, and local environment
The ecological and human disastris which }uve frequently

water -borne
disrupted.

resulted from [hese large projKti have caused unprecedented financial waste.

Macro project &uch as Itj^pu m hinA and the Nainjad^i pn^ica In [ndia lit
also lelhng examples,
lion and sceel Industries, petrochemical ard^ipbuilding mstallatlans. have mainly proved uneconomkeal and have comein formuch criticism. IMost of these protects have also given too lltde

consider Jtton lo probable environnvnial damage, to the effects o\ population

displacement, manpower needs, mainieiiiiKe, andx on.

many Ciscs. even In the semi 'industrialized countries, mdtiHnai
devdopnientbaKd on irnporrsubsrltudon policies requiring extremely highintariff and non ta.tiff protection,

modern seaors andhas produced great disparioes between thethe traditionally poor rural sectors.

populd^ions have drifted to the big clQcs

Asaresult,w provide cheap labour- pining thealready vast numbers of marginalized labourers also originally from rural areas
living \n subhuman conditions.

Hunser is jshamed of no on? dnj] does not fnr God. Only organlaedand conscious work can nukr it retreu.
a farmer in EUirkina Ytao

Iht ftijlt vt iht iluiTfj. \ki ftMlni und iht btdtmvtlUir The urban population ofdeveloping countries rose from ninety million in lOOO to rtearly one billion in
19S^ and has since been rising al a rale of ever forty million per year.

Two-thirds of the population of Latin America is concentrated in urban
aiea5 while urbanization ill Africa Inaciscd fiom i rate of 5 pci cent in 1900CO:5 per cent In l^S^ 6^ per ceniof the world's total urban population lives in

Asia, where the evolution of the rate of urbaniation IS comparable) that ofdeveloped counciles According to the latest United Nations estimates, thenumberof city dwellers u^ll be about two billion by the yeat 2C00, wtth a 100
per cent mcrease in Africa, a 5D per cent increase In Latin America and a AS percent irKTease in Asia. There are a number of reasons for this.

Auleursrechlelijk beschermd materiaal

104 • TbcFintGhbaJIUtvlufum
Ru^jI depopubtjon
outtkhts of the Urgeisconsandy bringing sueams oF people Lnto the

cjtio. drjvcn

hom ihcii bnd by povcny jnd the

Impossibility of survival, and sornctimes as Jircsukof local wars (some rwentytn Afr<C3 alone]or larger infr^sTiuctural projects causir^ &ie djiptaccmcnc of

the pop LilatEon

jndsoon IE,

iuijI depopulation\i

Importancco jccepc, however due il chough

an be siowed down,

lc certainly

cannoc be flopped. One

reason is ihat cities exercise a powerful attrjcooTL on the younger section of
the runt population who wish to flee an unbe^iable poverty; for theie
youngster?, cities with their relitivc modernity represent hope. Anotherteaion is that iay pro^cu

m cbc aicd of agticuEtural production deprives i

growing pcrccnrtiEC of young prople of thdr work. As

Ithappora! In

Western countries, they go to theuticsLn the hope oE finding a new kind ofwork, even It H fs only small trades.

The true fascinailoi] exercised by the big dtfes on people, young jnd
not so-pDujig. is based on a set of latknaal and irrational human motivatiom.
A& MdRCi DogiO iiid lohn U. Ki^arda wioK In A W9Mo(Gmi Cj[«':The diks act Uke a gigantic la Vegas in ihc sense diat the bulk of their
populabons are pmblers. though the games ate dlffnent. Iri&tead ofroulette or blackjack, theirnames die job security.

Individual social

nubility, better access to educauon for the chkLdren am^ hospitals for thesick.

Wonderful storicE circulate about the happy ffw who nude It in i big

way.

Howeva. coDfronutLon, whrihec <!xpirs^rd in ^ quid at a violent way, \igrowing between the poor and the rich In developing countries. The Western

modeJ Ls denounced, yet at the same time is envied Jtkd hated because of theimpossibility of attaining It, The hatred felt by poor countries Cor the rich Is

aimed mainly at die West, especially aita most blaisni form In the Irnage of
the wcaldi and waste of Ameiitan society often seen on television,

But It laalso directed against die ostentation, arrogance and easy lifestyles of local
elites.

City governn>cnls Have so fat been unable 10 control the trflow of migrant

workers and to prcFvide adequate Integration structures, and health andeducation services for a new underclass &ai k vulnerable to all kinds ofdiseases and can take to alt »orts of marginal behaviour such as prostitution anddrug dcalingTAf HfrJ/«r fupurdridP

feUciaWe turn again to the central issue of the

L Dc«^ inf Kannta. IW.

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd irrateriaal

The Tbnr ImtfUiiviaas • lOS

popul^on rxplo^iorr whkh mu^ have Its place b the retoludque. Af alreadysated, in many tountric* there Is » grim i»ce bcrwccn population giowih jnd
develcpnjcni 5q much ctpngmk imptOKmcni. achieved al rhe expCTisc ofso much human etFort Is consumed and Lost by the impact oF tncreaslng
numbeis. [n hindsLghi, one can onty mux about how piospeious counUJes
Sikh as India, so well endowed bjj rutufe. would t>e lodiy had they bMn jiblc
to maintain ihrti eaily cwenifeth cencury populittons^

There Is undoubtedly an uigcm r*ecd for ihese countries to adopt sensible
humanitarian policies of population tcgulatkm. and to encourage Esmily-me^^ureiplanning

which

would

complement

thedeath control^

achi^vemenii ushered in by improved medicine and belter hygiene. One of
the surest n-ieans of attaining lower fenjlLi^ rates \5 throu^ the spoinlancaus
prctceuet that fo[]ow economic improucment, but in many places this L$ a^t off hope, nude even more distant by the high rate of population growth,thus creating a vidou; circle.

A sclcna^c bttakditough in contnceptivc uxhno^y is alio overdue. e»
pccially luproiiuclngdieapand ^videly available oral at othci contraceptives

which would

tcilitatc

popubinon

control.

Also the direct coitehtion

between fertility and female illitetacy needs utgeni attenlujn and rexaich
Population control, neccsury as it Is. must be planned
well being. U

isof paramoum

m terms of hum jn

impoiutKc that all counnics flnving fof

development should pay elose attention to the dcsi^ of their population
policies.

These policies have to be based on a detailed e^tplorabon of thedemographic growth prospectsin

tebdonto resource availability

anddevelopment alms. Including the standard of living which each country hopes
to achieve.

Only through an informed asse^im^ni of such prospects ciii

development planning be reailsDc. If thr public is to resptjnd to population
control needs,iimust be given sufilcLent information to und^stand thedingers of oveepopuJacion foi every Individual and the benefits that would
flow from rcstramii on population growih. Such condtion.f are nec&sary IJ
population plaruijng Is to be Implemented fn a humanitarian way.

Tnr nui far ntw i\ti\cpa 1/ icviltjiatnl. [t Is thus dearly necessary to rethinkdevelopment policies and practices Much greater [wiortty hs to be given to
the needs of the marginalized and forgotten millions of rural pooi In all paitsof the underdeveloped world, it is necessary also to go back to first base andquesdon the undeilyjng assumption of most development policies, namelythat the economLC success of the ptesendy Indusirliilzed countries, achieved

ditough the J)>5lcma[lc pujsult of 1 icdino-logy based economic growth, is theInevluble path that must be follov^ed bv all countries and all cultures. The

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

106 • Thr Fmt Gl<M Rcpoltttim
newer gcTfcradom In minvcauntnn.'wbEleby-Tiom^ansrelfcting tht ncpd
For modcrnizdiMm an^ mdtemi Improvement, tnsist on (he need to draw oniheiir own Q^tdonsind skills in ere Jiing their ownpjtierm of dercLopineni.
[mtciilon Is not enough. It is mote impoitant Tor iuch countiies lo develop
thelT own capacit^n [or scienDik research and irchnologlal transfer, [n aperiod of ra^^ sflcnufi^ ind rcchndogical changem the iivdusmalized

cm lad lo
rcmarkabk that In many countries that boisc of modem

courirics. ihc linpocunon of oadiUQnal methods of minubaurc

bsolewence. It isindustry and services, malmitrlttonsndinjterafy are widely prevalem.wldi alaige pcrccnugeof the population living tn condlnoni of extreme poverty.

5omc of ihcx C3KS \a\-c been iku
povcny actually wcnicnmg.

It

is

dear

anmo^ -wwh incquiltEV ind
that gtobal

development cannot

conttnue along these linn. A reversalcf these trends, however, abo implies
radical chinge in the political systems, stability, elJminatKin of corruption, a^cnfcng oF prloriOcs based on the needs of future generaitons,

and strong

limitations imposed on the uncontJolLcd spread of cojrupi burcaucridcs.

In the semi Industrialized countries, especially in those that became heavily

indebted during die KvenUe^ and e»ghile$, the jd]u$Tmcnts that have had to

be made to maintain the service of iheir external debt and to reduce inflaboif

and waste, have forced diem to cancel Urge piojecu,
strategics,

id ledesign theirand, pariKulaiLy, lo reduce the scope oFthe public sector andprovide strong incentives insteadtodomestic private entrepreneurs,Animportant role can be played by direcr foreign lnv«rmcni in xhis process.

Mjny of [hesf countrm havp had no altern^uve bui to aeiie condidons
under whichtheir

industries

must become hitematlonally competitive,

folkjwlnp to soir: ejctcni the experience (rfthe Pacific BJm copntrto. This
process has sometimes been going on atlbeexpense of the domeBtic market

and with great sacrifice in terms of los of employment and regular salaried
Incomes.

We cannot ignore die fact that in many countries, especially In Africa southof die Sahara, too low a priority has been given to agricultural Improvement,
This

Ls

due pardy

toinflated

hopes of w^hat might be achieved byrndustrialliailon and partly due to die fact that IndusuEes arise mainly in or

nearcitiessituations,and d:us

attract

immediate attention. ]n unstable

danger to the anihoritles

isgenerated mainlyinpolitical

the urban

ervironmenl. Disturbance and insurrection can easily be incited among themasses of th« msufficienily employed poor. Rural opposition, on the other

hand, i^ widely dtspecsed over the couotrysbde and Is ihu^difhcult to organize.

The temptation, therefore, ts to invest in development projects that promise
employment and slabllitv in the urban areas. The consequence of insufficient

Auteursrechteiyk bescheMnd materiaal

ThtTbtttlmmediade! • 107
agricultural inv«[menE ha& bf en a main olBla<:ic in llw race between EoodpfoducUon

jnd

growd^.

populauon.

Rurii]

developmeni

remjmfjct

unquotlonibie plorllv because the whole populatkm. rural and urban, has
to be Fed,

md countiie^ mu^t aim to become self sufRctent in die productionof food.

must be strongly fmpteflieddiarihc problem of rheorganiuTion of theinternational market for raw m^ierrab has yet [o be solved. IC Is of prime
It

Importance to find a -way to ensuie diat (he pilce of raw macetlals Ls not fixedby Inietnadonal markets to the benefit of industrialized counoics but to thedetilmcnc of developing ones,U»i rjiiUaUrrt. Bodimihe North and In die South, Insplteofgruthandlaps
ofnuny wrtt. It Is reniirkable thai the willpower of small groups of men andwomen has managed lo start the move towards bringing about Improvements
for the lower Income strata bised on thdt own efforts, with apptoprinedssistincc from ccnttil and local govcmmcnb. InccmaQoiaJ igcncin,
domestic and foielgn non- governmental organizations, and new bilateralprogi*mmes.

the Club of Rome undertook a latgcsurvcy on die tole of local initiatives in
the rural areas'. We focus or this field knowing that parallel initiatives inhandicrafts

and small rnimubctprcs

In

the wtIwp outskirts arc also wcry

effective and should be encouraged. Large numbers of small development

pro|eccs in j^hcultur? health and education have sprung up in the poorest.

parti of Latin America. Africa and

km. initialed by MGOs, Indcpcndenl^mers' groups, and ^illjge communities. Acnordmg toesnmaces m^de In lQfi5, over one hundred million farmers were involved In
development projecl^ headed by one or several HGOs. The movemenl Is
cffgaidBtions,

growing rap]dly.
Todjy. NCOS In die South exi&t by ihe thousands in It^dia, thr Philippines
and South America, ^nd by tbc hundreds In Arrlca. Indonesia aixl Thalbnd.

And although their histories are different, they are all participating In a
common effoii. with onlya few lesouices and some backing ^xqn NCOS In
the Northn to meet needs that are the same everywhere: the basic needs ofThey uc also helping village dwellers lo
real Ize what their problems are and to participate in a siluation where diey canfood, cledn wdier and h^iene.

take responsibility for thetr

own development. This means getting die

and oalned. and getting everyone involved. Including
worTien, ouicastes and the disabled It means^ making progress by digging
villagers organised

I

TfifBlrrrWi FLuiiliiUsa 11Q8S], jrq]onby5chn«d«Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

103 • The Pint GiobaJ Rrpolutim

wdh or building fanki ro colted ninwarer for jrngstiDn, jmprovtng thepUnong etfcs. building Idtripcs. educatingchlldrcDjnd cncourdgLngsdVLiigs.Locdl savings, mosdy made b^ women, arc
qudlLry of seeds and Livestock,fundam^nul invesimcni lot \hc future thj[ fbouLd particularly be
developed Throughout i\\ this, we car never overestimjte the essencial,ir

Irreplaceable role that women are plapng in developmem all over the world.

NGOs and volunteer agencies have made i decisive and vlial conulbution,
especially In dx poorer leglons oF dK woild. There is no doubt dut dieK
acQons will sptead. Ux v/oul about die vitlagcs that have come hack to [jfe geearound verjr qukkly, reaching even ihe eikhi di&unt villages tn the desert,
jungle or mounorti. And villagci^ who wae thDughito be Incti, btallsOc andresignedwork— whenIn factthey usually had no hope lefrand were too hungry to— are beginningto believe dut It can work foi them too and are fin Jlng

the will to innpiove their own lot and build a better futiire for dicLr children,
Ptlcniiymust dicrcfote be given in many places to small-scale pro)casH

propctly Intcgnicd Inco a glo^bal mncgy
In addltfoHn to avoid financial vrasK and the unwarned consequences of dielarge scale pfo)ects we nKndoned earlier and 10 nuke the best of the tcssons.

Icaml from previous expeneiKC, it seems necessary lo reverse die process

due has been engaged In solar and bOrt favouring small scale piojfcu needing
far less inveitmenl ainl resuLuiig m progress that is bcnefKial lo dte ma^iiy ofpeople.

Al a Ome when finarKfal resources are becoming even scarcer the current.

situation dem jnds th^i NGO& in the North, and ihf InifnutkHial Jgendes jnd^a rK:[al institution in particular, re vie'w the policies diey have applied so

f^tT'Part of the investment planned Lor large-scale projects should be transferredtofinaiLcc&mall scale pio)ects. The advantage of the latter i&thjt they train die

bed men and women and set up The stnjctures— village communities,
farmers' aasixiations— lokunth i de^flopmeni based -on the people's own
r>eeds and options, implemented widi their active Involvement and under
their supervision. The rephabiJlty of the projects from village to village tt
starling to have a multiplying effect on the progress of develc^mcnt of groupsoE villager, then of regions.

beyond i ceruin ^tage oE ihi& kmd of development, medium scale works
like roads, nnarkets, small hospitals, and schools become indispensable. Thus

villages and NGOs have no choice- even though It may seem difficult- but

to putsue action on these matters in a concerted movement on government

polldes^ Id the same way, home Indus^leSp small business firms or handicraft

wterprlses can be set up and give access to new productions and therefore
nei* modest incomes.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Tbt Thm Immediacta • 109
Tlrr i9}t ii ^ovtjr^mnii. This global viiioo(

rura-l dpvclopmeni basedon new

perspecnves md pnorttics requires EitU lecogniuon by goveinnnetiQ ot therdc of local InltiaOvcs and NCOi, ]n hct. Jf a govemmen[ dcdd«$ to
JmpLcmem jEuraldeveJopmrni pel Lcy.thi&dss Limes Ehdi bjsm^dee^fniial
poll tkj] choices chat must m mm)' insuncfl Include Land reform populaaonIt,

polLcy anddrvelopmoit of small i^kk healrh

Eafilitie;.

However, thelecognlbon of ibe dTccdvenenof NCC^ by govcmznenD has often remilned

tnhcr theoiedcal.
Again and again ti has been observed bow ihc results of small s<ale projects
are compTDfTtiscd by the application ofpr^ctlcei and even polkcmihjTjcciri

conmdIcDon lo the type oE df velopmeni chcy stood foi, Puichuc pnces For
farm producls do not iuEricientlyremuneriletberirmers For their labour dnd
di&couiage Instead of -encour^e them to Increue produCDonr Simllaily. direct

and Indirect taxes on the national level are bitterly Felt in rural areas, where

income is generally very low. Covemment laxaiion widi Its resulDng financial
butdcn ODuld well slow down at put a stop to all small -^ale ptoica cffoits.
bowevet much external financial aid there Is. when govetnmenis havedecided to support this approach to rural development, the^ must thenmodify ihdr political atxi ftnatxial options and axlopi a policy oFhtgher buying[HicesfoJ village piodiicc. as *cll as relieve them of scnne of the tax pressure.

development b«cd OP smill'S«lc projects also demands chgi
governments implemenl nauonal planning policies Favouring rodd
R. lira I

construction and the development of intermediate settlements
villager and bl^ rowns. The absence oE roads excludes a large

betweennumber olvlllige communiues from normal trading and makes them live In a 'closed
circuit'.

Souk oF them have built roads cr bridges themselves, but they are notequipped for such tasks, which should be planned on a national level andcarried out on the systematic btsis of a policy. Similar problems arise in the

TXti di prtfUJiy and secondjry school educjDon, haspitjlK. highrrlcvel
training, and leisute activities for the ^oung,

Moieover, corruption musibe lought at every level oF the admmistratKin,
and ibis implies, imong other measures, thetraining oflower level civil

servants in order to moDvate and Involve ihem inadevclopment policy thatshould be well understood ds a njciona] ptioficy.

Weshallaigue later that a ma^ornced In die development oF the South isthe creation of an Indigenous capacityineach country for research anddevelopment. However, scienitFic careers have remarkably litde prestige inmany Southern countries. In such societies the more gifted Individuals ace

Anumber oFthcmaredoing research abroad, usually in Westem countries.. A
recruited Into fields other than these urHJervalued sciennFlc careers.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

110 • Tbr Frnt Giobai Rrpoiutim
maior considcratkm in any nadonal sdciKC policy has ra be the esrabbshmcnr
otthebjiiccondiuorLs jndf^ciUdc&[oatt[acrihlS[CScrvo<T'oFQ]fii[backmdv
region dnd reoln thosf already thcTf b^

more con^o-anon and bftter

A last wocd should be said on the fllghi of capital wh]<:h in ^irK developliig
rounirlcs represfnts such an amount of mone y that it lk almost «quivalerti tothdr total external dcbc. Such a pandoHicaL situation should cmalnli; bechanged by gowmmmril decisions and legulatlons

The growing awareness of all dme iacts amongst the population will
cenalnly play an essential role in pushjng govemmenis io give more attention
to them- as has already been the asc In some Afilcan- Asian and LaOn
Arr>er]tan countries.

nk of iMtfnaUi%A\ insfilnl^iniT. ]n the past years, inietnadonal financial
institutions such as the World Bank, the European Economic Community andjfit

Japanese oFFicial Qcvclopmcni Aid have become aware of the problenns ofrural development. The reglcnal development banks in Latin Amcrjca. Atnca

and Asja. as well as these in the Middle Easi, should increasingly emphasize
this lype of operation. Theie Is ane* trend, as- yet quite modest, of (he direct

provision of flnanclil meins co smill scale pEo^ecis witboul going through thegovernment. This increases the probablllly that the money will reach its
destination without being diverted on the way. as was oFicn the case in die

But

past.

there

\i

a

cerrainstructural

Incompatiblhly belween large

buECduCEatk jdmmi&traQons and ^mill NCOs. The mnovjiivc cnthmiatm oE
the latter ai well as the daily urgency of dieir field work, leaves little time lodeal with the bureaucratic requirements and administrative details expectedof them-

To promote and accelerate this type oF rural development, wc think these
Institutions should devote a greiter pd:t of theii budgei to loedl iniilitlve& dnd

small scale protects. This would strengthen thdi e^idency and encourage thegrowih! ^mall scale induioies They should also establish an advisorycommittee made up oF representatives oE ^uthern NCOs and organizations
such as ihc Club of Rome, to extend their knowledge of the field, to ^ulde

them in tiieir selection of cas« deserving of financial support, as well as tocontnbute (o the evaluation of the results of such aid.
1'bc

most immediate

responsibilityof theiniematioiul

irutitunons.

however, has to do with the debt problem in deveiopmig eotintrics, k is fitting
to emphasize ihe positive moves that have taken place in the last few yeaiSn

which began with the agreement signed between the InternauoTkal Monetary

Fund [IMF] and Mexico in lOSO.establlshinga link, for the first time, between

Auteursrechteliik bescheMnd materiaal

.

TheThralmmaiiMki • Ell
ihtf levelof giowih of ^ countiy ind ihc level of in dcbr pa)micna, The

cvolurkm of thoughi w|[h rcgaid to the sdutkm of ihc debi problem [odaycin be otiKrvcd fi much in the deb[OE countrtei

u In rhc Icmlei InnlTuaoris.

In the debtor counirin. the debt cci^i; has begun to Induce a revision ofdevelopmentitr^Kegies jndiheim plemenuoon of policies aimed Ji reducing

budgeory jmbalsnce;, ElghEing In^sncin. engafpng iii economtcand fmsTVcUl
recovery programmes, jnd esiabhahlng codCroJ over economLc poltdcs.

Lender Insilnjtktns, Ehe [MF In panlcuhi, now view (he dcnimd forre-awareness of the sodji consequencesof

Adjustment

wlih

a

keenerunnecessarily harsh terms. Ii has become clearer that the debt pioblem canonly be salved in die Jong term jnd only If—

JS is acknowledged In :hc pUn

proposed b^ die US Sccteiary of Treasury, lames Baker— growth

resurr>es,boch in die counirin of the tJotih and in the cho^ of the South.

Very recently [here appears lo have been a reorientabon Ln the thinking of
the leaders of die international financial ocganizauons. ForeumpJe, Enrique
V. Iglnids', the president of the Inlet Atnetfun Development Birk, whiledi^cu^^ing the transfer of teal resources to developing countries, scata:Among ihr areas of activity targeted by die bnk, d few sund oui foi diehigh priority they have been isslgned, namely: the ptomoOon of economic

investment In key sectoEs of the economy such is energy, transport,
communications, agricultural and industrial devebpment: the alleviationof the social debt In the region

leg., assistance to the low-income

segments of the population, coopcratkindevelopment, promotion

of

small

for

urban jnd agricultural

producers,

enhancing women's

pardclpailon in development}; the support for the modernization of theprivate sector le g.

loans and cquliy invntments bj* theimwAmerian

Investment Corporation, and loans and technical cooperation from the

Bank

In

the areas of trading systems modernization, expcn capacity

development, financial sector modernization, cofinancing. and support tomECroenneprencurs); the promotion of human resources development,
pjiticularly in the scientificand technological areas; and,prorrtotion of environmental

management and conservation of natural

finally,theresources

One Imporiani task for die Club of ELome Is to convlrKC policy-makers diat
It IS

possible for Korch and South to work together so that development nolonger demands such a high price of die regjonal and gkjbal envirorunent.

L Addrns on September ^lJ«0. to thfjoiniCnininltteedtlv Boards of CkiverruTi of the
Bank jnd ihie Fund on chic Darukiufccaimourcn id developing courtEtn.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd matenaal

112 « TheFmtGlobttlBrvUutum
Developmeni planning canrely

on ^Irfady

available^vanccd cncr^-

cffioemand matenal^ efficentiechnoEogics.Ucan^couiigccffotO to build

up indigenous capabilities for scientific and technological research In thedeveloping counoln.

ttmust emphasize ihe use of local resources andrenewable energies lo Ind to ^ deicentralized ^nd

Italjnceii pattern ofdevelopment. Ai flrsr %\^i. the finandal burden involved may seem coo
onerous for dcuelopJng countries.

El

rieed not be.

pollcks can be designed to ensure that adequateIf

aid-to-developmentmei^nude of thetechnological advances achieved so fa:. Seen In a historical perspective,

deveboping countiics now have a gteac advantage: they ue building up their

KDck iX a dmc when new icdinolo^cal opiikjns ^rc becoming
available, Wc have Co ensure ihat these options; do nor remain t^K ptivilcgcd
possessions of the North, but can be accessed by die Soudi on afforda-ble
lerrrs^ Th^ would be possible if, for example, a part of aid to development
funcTs were Co be used to give conipensanon [o the enterprises in the pr]tf^[ecaplul^ciQr for }h^ng ihcit icchnologi^dl know-how.

MoreovcTH we have to ask whethei cunent conditions allow us to envisage
successful International cooperation on the necessary sale.

Two potential

obsucles might bar the way. The first is political obsucles. TlelaKation ofteniiuns between East and West has pointed to die emcigencc of a newtnternational climate and this process may conOnue, despite worrying signs ofreactionary tendencies within the Soviet adrrrinistration. This might ?k)w

down the demociauzation pjoccs^ or even Lake advantage of the prc^nL
economic fiasco to reemcige as a pohdcal ftMce. The new climate raises
expectations, about Ean^Wsl relations, but not necessarily about North-Southrelations. Indeed, confrontation between

E^ And WesE in the past ofi^n led

to competiUpon in offering assistance to developing countries for political ortrade-related advantages. However, an attitude verging on Impatience has
novi' become apparent among many cconomisu and policymakers in tfic

industrialized world of dK North, They seem to feel dut while restructuring

the foimet Eastern blocis a practical pTOpo&ition. development of the South

remains an intractable problem. Furthermore, theCulf War has given rise toincreasing tension between tJordiand South. Tbe growth of fundamental ism
jn

iic Isldmic woild threatens not only dK t^t^ve analysis of ccorrpmlc

intetestn but aUo what has been a long iraditlcn in mucboftbe AtabwoiW oftolerance for non-Muslim beliefs.

The Club of Rome can make Its own contribution here. Measures Eo find apolifeable mechanism which will permit deveLopmem lo take pbce without
unduly expanding tolal world resource use, and other measures to condLUon
market force? to take mto account long^term, hitherto unquantihable

Auteursrechteliik beschermd materiaal

Missing page

8.

Governance and the Capacity to Govern

The compICK ol piablcms rhar wc hjvc discnbcd Icad^ to che quc^iion i% lo
how dK7 die lo be m jsicred through policies thii okc EuJI kcoqdi dF Ehf ir
muctui impact. Arc the Q^dicioiijl palldal, insdtudonaJ ind ^JmlnlstnUvc
systons capable of hcing such i situauon^ Knowing how to make ihe rightdecisions In f^llknowiedgeottbe facts and dien ImplemenQngthemintimels

no ca&y mntcr; yci ii \i i fuAdimcnut cicmirnc
defl-clencle^ ofd (he problem aOquc, Thegovernance are at the root of many of the mands of the

problemaljque 3J]d hence improved goveimnce is an ea&enltal aspect of the
fcsoluljqucIn this chapter, we shall examine the origins of some of ihe piobLeim ofjjovf mance. tb new dlfnen^ic^u, and the ^qtidi:y of its pie^rrnt responses.

We shall also make some iuggestiom tor changes which mlgh[ conujbute ta
die tesoLutiquer

WeuMlbeierm 'goveirunce to deixne die command medunismtjfj
sodal system [and Us actions|,dut endeavours to provide ^(^cuElcy^piospetltf,

coherence, order and continuity to the system. It necessarily embraces die
Ideology of the system, which may (democrattc) or may not (authoritarian)deftne

means

for

the

e^ecdve consideration of pubbc wiU ind tht

accounabdlty of tha^ m auihoiiiy.

ii

also mc!ud« the iiructurr of The

government of the system. Us policies and procedures Somr mi^t even
Df that govemarw Is the rrKans ro proi/ide a stable equi^ibnum between die

vamus centres of power. Seen In a broad sense, (he concept oE govcmance
should not be restricted Co the zutiona] and International systems but should

be applied to regional, provincial ^nd local gouemmcnis as well as to odiersocial systems

such

as

those of cducatloD and the mlLltaryn to private

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

Gffvmratut tpid the O^aaty to GffPtm ^ 115
cntcrf^lscSn and even to the microcosm of the limily. Covcrnarjcc jttempe toapply arkart a ambiance of rJdonaliiyio The irranonal, sub|«t[vc, and oftenCOn^idj^^iy tchivi^Lir gf palidcuTis, ccononkists and the ml of \is.
I< is uDwiK to ovogoienllze on tbe concept of governance. diETereni
countria

asdiffercriL

problcms^

predominanlly Western idc^l hive

itirtiulawrf

WOrVimic

hdve

Reverlhelcs^.

dlfkreni

ippioachcs

iS^/ftii

growth and matcrla[ ptogtcssinabigepartof the wotUJarul have broLjt^ht
witJi

ihcm Western mucture^ and concepts, no* generally xcepfcd.

although with !tai\y variations and diverse interpceuiions.

The Idea ofgDvecnance lb natacw. Id core coi^ponenis ^u b^tk a[ leait five thousand
ycjK, 01 probably much longw i^n dial

We have jbeady undetscoied the mjsmanagefnmi of the world. evldeiKeof which IS

allaround us — acevis of misery and poverty, die arms trade,cripphng indebtedness m die developing wocld. huge annual dcficLif in dK

United SQtes with i national debt of some USS ) trlJUon. samp^nt speculatuHl,
cortupdoii, and violence. Aie nve to (onciudc liin the world n impouibk Co

govern? Are out governors incompetent or 111 choscii? These ate doubii

which public opimonisramog andcicizen:^Jre discussing- much

more

IncMvcly than the poSmciins themselves. Wehjvetojsk ourselves three basic
quesikms:(1)

DowenKdiecndofthisccniuiyipropeiJy understand our woi Id, oi aicout coocepcs 3t»i approaches iu> longer suited

bt the complex anddangerous sLiuaticn we fkce?
(2)

Whyjn splceoFgrowing concern over several decades and Jnnumciableinternaijonal debates and many canitrutOvc proposals have accton and

pracDaf results Iwtn
(J)

w Itmjred?

What suggestions can now be made for step* to improve the cftecDveneaof the pcocea&cs which shixild convert wtdrspiead concern mio practicalacOon?

The dangers of ir»efTeetive governance are present acdiScrenc levels; at ihelevel of the indlvidiaal and the family iwhich wc have discussed In 'The

tiumjn Malaise'}, ii the levels oi the national jnd die JntcTEiaiiona poTlrkal
I^fiF dimennons of the prvbUm offfOPcrtwrnt
Shicc the eudof chc Second World War, the actJvmes of governments have
Increased enormously and,lUTL^iction

a[

the

same ume, many areas undertheir^mind highly s|^dli£c-j icchnj^^l undei^andlng. Wc must

thetrefore stress

how much the complexity of national and international

Auleursrechteljjk beschermd materiaal

116 • lUFmtGkbdBtvolutum
svstfms has gfowD. As Andic I3a]zini puts it/thls sudden jiK in complfiUty

hasihrown us out of a social syscfm ihit w&(accc5i]bJc (ologlcandihrunus
Into-

1 stxJil otganiutiort doniin^tcd by cybernetic

racQoni/ Jn a very

cocnptexenvlronniciitwlthlnsQbilitiesindlznbaljiKcs. ^is [be situation ot

humankind today, the feedback jy$tem& are so numetom and so intetiwincd
thjtftJsdjRiciilt to dfiign them within a comprehensive modcLltlscvcnlcs!

possible to grasp such systems chiough common sense and intuition, or evento draw up an approximate mentaJ Image of them. The solution of probFcms

wlihUi this complex, systemIsthercfoiedifficuir,m^dc all the moic sobecause En many c3:jes public acceptance of KiEuttons \i unhkdy.

What givcj rJK: la dils growth of complexity? Wr mention heic a ffw ofthe factors operating on both the nadonal and the Intemadonal leveb:\ )the increased speed of technical, economic and demograpNc changes:

2)

the Incieasc in the number of accots in the systems to be governed,

whHhfrahigdry.acountTy.thevastve^ofrheSouth.oThuminiryua
wholes[be jncce^&c In the number of foveielgn stJts pldytng an aCDve fole Id

3J

any given IntettuQonal sj^siem;
tht ejLtenE of Inrcrdependence between nattonal soclena ova a wideA]

[ang? oi mittcr£ ^ixh u uansfci of knowledge, pedodlc or petmanent

mlgralory llows. cultural influences and economic eitthange;
the onning into Ctmlact of heleiogenous soceties, differing in iheir

5]ailiures. values, political tiadlllom, and sundards of living:6) thecroslonofnatkonalsovcrelgnty. AccoIdlngUlMt.So«ijatmko^ 'In

the process of interdependence, we have all become vulnerable. Oursocieties aie permeable to decLsioni taken elsewhere In the world. The

dynamiC3 of inicrdepencSence might be better understood If we ihin^ ofthegbbenoiln tetmsofamapofnadon^butasa meteoro-logtcal map,
where weather systems swirl tndependendy of any nadona boundaries
and low and high fronQ create new climattc conditions fai ahead ofIthem':L FomicE gcncEjl irunj^ijci of Thooim C5F, moubcr d dit Club of Rome.
J.

Afoimcrprcsidcntof [he LlniicJNjQoTiiGtiivcraiTyaTHlilorfnrrrfkr'mbf-rLiEihcChjbof
RjJlnc. Ml. &dc(1|Ajiuj[o, rtriwdr^rii^d, mtoti? [hii ^urcmcnr in i pJpi^i fariicibuwdm[be Club ol Rocne irmua] ciinleif nee of \%^ held in ^norriLerj S[dm oc ihc u^ic af

CovemabilKrofa World Id TraiuiUQLi

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal

G&Kmana and iht CafHtaty to Gffpent * 1 17
(7)

ibccnormousvolumtof iofbrmad™, the Tpccd of communiatto^
ihc importance of the mrdia as amplifier, sdcnor, filler, and distorter of-v/hai ^a^i Ai [pi^raOiQo - deapiK dK iia ihai jo ihc South iczcsi to

Information Is still vay bmlrcd;(8)dw emcTgOKC

ofi

atw world

ctchnlcal

systemon

based

microelecaonics;i9)

the aR>carancc of problems dcmandlrg msna^emcnl on a global sole ofmankind^^ comcnon heiit^e m Jieas such as climate, envlronmenl. theexploiuiiun oE Lhc oceans and ardilieauiat monuii^eniA;[10)

ihe sJTnuIuneous consequencesof technical dcvelopmcn: anddiefngmeriaTlon of poljdcal power on die security of nattonal societies;(11)

rhf diionma

d twiMtn bur»u£rad(±&. The lUtur^ and diver&icy of the

problems lo be solved and the sj'stenu(hcilth,welhie. etc.) k> bemanaged, encowape the powth of hrge bureaucradei, which arc
amslderably more tcilnani to change;[17)

some national sodeila, changing individual amiudes have led to
Increasing demands for services ftom the government. Citizens find It hardIn

to believe dut governmeniis aie unabEe to find solutions which will notcause them hardship or lEiconvciUcncc, SimultaiKOusly there k i decline,

In tespeci for audiority and a lessening trust in and support fot insticudoiu.

AJ±ough in from nthiusiive, this lui suggests thai the cUcca of mosi of
thc$e factors wlJl be felt wtth Increasing intensity during the neit twenty lothirty ycars^ These new dinnenslons of governance place an entirely r^ew
htstorical situation In. from of humanity.

We must, therrfore, noc be surprisedby the Jnadequacy of nuny of the solutions currently proposed for die

conicmporary problems.
ThtiHodequjiijefthcrtiptHttTaammljnvtitrms

OS once nwreth^tth? existence of tragfcs1tiTatfons,sEtdiaj
military conflici, threats to peace, vioiation of human tights, envjronmenol
Ti Is necessary to £tr

ddmdgc, md (he Intolerable pcrslsioKx of wldoprcad poverty and hunger In
theworld,

demonstrate

DeTTrographic, economic,

themalfunctioning

politick

of

the

woild

systemand en virtm mental tiends of global

dimensions, have combined in teccnl years to create a qualiutivcly distinct
category of pucucal piobiems diat were vlrlually unknown Co Oadltlonal

dipbmacy. They are beyond the reach of indlvldiul national governments,
cannot be ftrted into accepted theories of competitive interstate behaviour and

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Missing page

.

Govtntanct and nbr Q^adty to Gopem m 119
overlap oF the confuting ma&j of ^pfdallTtd tiniis. As wj^ 1rw4tabl?,

many oi^thc agcncln gridualJy began lo f ultivjic chcjr vested ni[ete3t5.
Staff was rectuJud Jeis on quality, than o>n anurlng dirou^ quotas an
cquiabk dlscrlbuclon of poses lo each member councry.
die sameM

dme the effectlvcncs! of some of die main agenaci wjs diminished bybure^uft^rtz^r^i^i^ and pollfldzadon^

Anxk on the complexity of the coirtempoi^ry problems emails i double
risk -thai of excluding publitopinjon and dcacdtepicsctiQUvca from theknowledge necessary for the utKJcT&tandtng of a sliuatkm. as well asth^tot
thestrengtbenlEig

Influenceof specL^lists

jndexperts

whose arcdnc

knowledge is difRcuk for the decision makers to jpprajse and check.

Tht complCRlty of die problems has been compoondcti by dienumbet
and complejiKy of the actors: political parties, uaiie unions, coipoiatk^ns,

non governmental otganlTadons, picuiue gcoupa of all kinds including
Infcffmal groups which OMy be short lived but nevertheless Intense andefftctive in their nwbtlttaOon on a parflcuJar ftjue. That virtous groups
contribute to governance through the^ proposals aixJ protc^. Governance is

no longer the monopoly of governments and fncci govcmmentaJ bodies, anddepend on the capacity of leaders to selecttvelytnclirde in
their dedslonmaktng process- these new actors, who are In htx their partrters
Its effectiveness willin g^jvrmancf

The stmctuTTj. pdum imdpnti^dum tf^erermnaus
Itiacisitig ob&olescence H chus i r)iaJor ch^i^ct^Hsdc of govcni^n-^^ today.
Itssnudures are basic, designed moEe than 3 centuiy ago to meet the needs ofmuch Ampler societies th^n the present ones. Some Important Innovations
have certainly taken place in the meanUme. suchas theemergence ofuniversal su^ge, the evolution of the welbre ^te, and a recognlUon ofhuman tlgha. but by and larg« dungr hjs brm InaemenDl oi by wjy oimimprovement of the already existing stiuctuzeSr As the range of governmental
Interventton has increased, ir has been accompanied by high costs, swollen

bureaucracies and mefflcency. Here we shall n^enGon only a few of the areas

where major Innovations

instructure and attitudes

aremost urgently

raiuirrd.

One such area is ihe need for benf r mecthanisms for the integration of
sectoral policies in order to deal with the Interaction of [he problematlque- [ngeneral,government structures ccmslst csseniially of a scries of verticalministries for sectors such as agriculture, indusity, eduo-tlon. health, defence

and foreign

affairs,

together with the central finazKJal and economic

mechanisms. Th^ system h^s hidicrta worked moderately well, but today

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Missing pageGtmnuota mtd the Orpndty 10 Gmvm * 121
However,

cjtpcrtcticc

showed(hat the barriers

between bccqohs of adepartment could be is ImE^nctrable as ihosc between the fonocr separate
mint soles.

A second atea of dlfbculty concerns theircRifllct between Eang-lerm andshort 'termIssues

This

^

Is

a

maior endemic problem

The rurmal

pultamentary cycle oi four or Rve years between dc^bOrti \i i featuie ot
democratic govenunce. The power game of party pollOcs ensures that bothadministrations and opposition partes have to respond quickly to Issues whicharc of Immediate concern to the electorate, iX they wish to retain OE to win

power at ihe ne:st election. Thus govemmenti, like Individuals, tend toignore problems thjion be put o^ till tomoirow-

it^this C3sc until 3ftcr the

ncm election. This has probably mattered lliclclnthc past, bui In periods ofrapid change such as the present, wh^t formerly appeared as long-term tends
to race into the period just five to ten years ahcid i,eInto the period of thenext administration As a consequence, die new government inherits a legacy,of ncglea; unackled problems come home Eo nDOSt, become compounded

and thereIsadescent Into

crisisgoverninenip a staggering from one

emergency to the next - which range from dealing wlih monetary and social
problems, baFance o( payments crises, unemployment. Inflation, and so on.
Each crisis is usually lesolvcd by pasting pafier over die ciacks; remedial

mcasuin seldom :CKh the iMB of the difficulty Fundamental causes ofdifficulties, being longterm m iheir operaDOin, are too easily ignored Oi gounidennfied In favour of cosmetic measures of ephemeral cffccDvenesS-

A further cribcal arrt Is that of thc apprOpHaw levels of decision making.
The cuttent situation Is somewhat a parados. The complexity and highly
technical mture of problems encourages the cenirallzauon of ddmlnLstiaiionfor their analysis and soiudon, since this would be difficult for regjonai
and provincial bodies to organize. Also the global coverage of so many
problems which demand ancnnon on the world scale, xvoald seem to lequire
centralized national decisions. At the same time there is an Increasing clamour
for decentralization, regloraal

autor^omy and greater participation of die

lr>dividual citizen in decisions which affect him closely. This tendency Is beingbTTOngly reinforced at present by the demands for Independence oi autonomy

of innumerable eduiic gioup^, a^ illusttdtcd by the ^ituAiion in Yugoslavia andthe Incredible secession Lsi tendencies in the Sbviet Union.

These t«va approaches are Indeed two sides of the same coin, perhaps

growing pains In the transition of the nauon slate towards some new kind of
global system. In the medium term, the main Issue is how ro eSh^bllsh^ In amanner aiming at harmonious governance, a system in which there will beseveral layers of decision -making. In

which the basic principle will be to

Auleursrechteljjk beschermd materiaal

122 • TheFim Glsbai Rtvoluri&nmsurc that debate taka place and dedskms are niad« at the closet possible
Levels to chose who will cnpjoi suffer the resdo. Foi ibc global problems weneedagbbalbttimaiixlHatltwodiCTCXticnKplocalrtiatrcrsciallforatowTior

communliy meeting tathcf than edIcB cmanacing from a remote andseemingly uncarjng central government.
Finally, a

few words jbout the buieauttity. In many countries thrte Is

general publk alClOsm of the sIk and power of the bureaucracy whith seems
DO enjoy Invendng peoy restiktion^ to Freedom and unnecesullycomplLaOng

the life of dtjzeiu, [[Isfekioberemcxe, unic^pon^lwe jnd unfeeling, madeup of people wUh tenured )obs who revel In cxen:ising ihdr petty powers. No
nutter hmv intelligent and obicctivc the CiviT Sfr\tc:c may be— jndln nuny
couniTLes thisisur^oniiroverslai— ttlsa Eatt chat iB memben are selected toprovide itabkUty and conrinuiry a& political administrations come atid go.

Hence they are seen tosai>d for the status quo, to be ihe apoiheo&ls of Inerda
artd resistance to change, especially radical change, Ln some lnsianre$ it Ls feltthat the facelcSS Clv|l Service 15 out of the OTnttol of ats pollOcal masters andthus not accountable to the people. It Is certainly very difbcult f-oi a minister tomaster all the deiajis of his departmental activities, of which he has probably

lud no prior eyperlenu. u^hlle hlK offlf j]&. very efficient arul well Infonned,I'know all the answers'.
There is undoubtedly some truth In 5uch crltldSTn, but sometimes there

may be a ^eaE deal of benefit for an inexperienced minister In the mtormed
cautious advice of the official The considetable extension of govemmenr
rfsponsihi]itylnrecmtyear3,insormnyup«tsoflifch^Lnevjtablyledtoin
increasem the size of the bureaucracy, and in some instances such as defence,

to the perpetuation of pow« and unsuitable policies. Internal policies may
thus at times be responsible for cieating dangerous and partly concealed

vested Intetests.

SOME IMFOHTANT ISSUES
Hjvingoudincd some general thou^ts on governance, we feel it necessary to
discuss some aspects in mcire detail.

RtsKtancc So cfrar^

Governments seldom generate Innovation. Tbcy reaCT to piessuie for change
which arises from popubr demands, either through the democratic process off lenions or jn the iiEterinath of a surces&ful revoludon. flowever, in mcttng
to demands for new approacheSn die natural conservatism of admlnlstratkons
and not nvrely Its civil service component) Is often able to pat the brakes t>n{change. Their approaches are essentially linear and aie based on cither rigid

Auteursrechteiyk beschermd materiaal

Missing page124 • The Frrsr GtobnU B^poUmm
Friction' In nn»njgfin?n[labour r^ldiions was jimtifjed in i)w context of dir

conOnuoustmpiovemenlof ihctonditkmof die wDikeis, while in politics rt
has done 3 good deal 10 prevent exceukve complacency and stagnaDon.
However, It haB also gone too far sometime, for example when party
IntercHshavcbcenplaccdabavcthenadonilgoodr While Ln no way aigulng
sgalnsi party polidrs as such. ihcK 3xe strong reasons for aTOmpDng, In bothpollUca]and Induiula] relaocns, to Inculcate a change of ^tOtude In (hedjTecdon of consensus building

In Face ofihe gravity Dfthedecisk}ns thai will

have to be Caken in the near Future, artkhclally stimuiaied paity rivalries,

modvated bf atrempts to win |)opular votes atihe nextelection a nd oFten IKK

cvm based on tcdl jdcologlal dlffeicnccs, could le«j 10 di&i^i. That 15 an
overwhelming needconsensus between

to establish apolitical

paniesclaiming to be custodians oF [he national good, if we are (o weather the m^n;/storms ahead. To ihks end It would be useful to bring togcdier rcprcsenCaUvcs
of difFerent parties In anon political brum such as might be ptovtded by die

Club oF FLomr and slitiildt budles, for ihe dL^u^sion oF spcdflc IssuG.
GevrKttvnr ntui thefbna of the nvrkfl[nEast Europe,

abandonment of state-planned economies in tvour cf

democtacy and Free' market economies has Inevlobly Indicated the need For
economic eERoency based on compcdOon and inccnifveH i-i- to accept andoperate ibc Forces of [he market This ha; led to widespread euphoria tn thesecountries which Fiave assumed thai: th & i& the p^nacci for thdr economy illsI

While we fully agrw thatthrse raunmcs nnd toaperiie ihelr economies on
the basis of the market forces, we have ibeady warned oF the danger oF
rel/Ing exclusively on dicse forces. [[ Is dius necessary 10 discuss brleFly die
reiadoosFitp between governments and the markets.
The market Is 111 adapted tQ deal widi long term e^cts, imergenerarlonai
responsibilities andcommon propcny resources. It responds essentially toshort term signals and dius Its indications can be gravely misleading if app]]ed

The system of the market economy js based oncompetition and is motivated by self-interest and ultimately by greed. In theto long teim needs

absence of all cestralnts, the operation of tbe market Forces could lead toncglen oF soddl needs, cnvltonmcnui de^uucdoni and theunchecked consumption of resources essentJal For the Future. However,

citplolt^tion,

society demands and indusay and commerce accept that there has to be an

agreed system of ethics, within which the market 1^ operated; the system isthus self' regulating Co some extent.

The maikei system dius certainly hds flaws, NcvcrthcLesiH competition andiPceiillveareundoubtedlyefFectlvein the current allocation olicsourceSn in

Auteursrechteliik beschermd materiaal

GiTPfmana and the Capadtyto Gopem • L2S
dcvcbptng new icchnologlo, and In the generation of die mjtCTial prospcjlty
which ihr knduslrlallzed countrls enpy today.
Even those govetnmcnu that arc mon devoted to Lti€ rancepi^ Qi piinte
iiuprlse. reco^tzf dv ne«J to dtElne dv boundarln wldiln which themarker an function. In the genenl pubbc inierai. govemmcnn have to[novide a firm frafnework of regulations

fo-r

die

private sccio:

2nd

effectively establish mechanjEni? for the eocte-cuofi of abuses. At thetime gt^vejnmenial

to

ame

are necessary for the establishment of anpolicies

economic climate conducive to the effLdeni functioning of die market within
the country and for en»urlE^ diatits

products ate competitive

In

[be

mterruilonal mar)c«. Govemmenc strategics should also provid* incenOves

long'ierm developmcntn for example fiscal and o<hct incentives, andforshould encouiage Indu^lry to- Invest In sdentifk lesearch and tedlnologtcal

devckipmeni aimed ac long t£im susuinabLltty, japan has been particubtly
succes^l in developing

govcmmeni

systemacombining businessinitiativeandInccndue. Clcftc collabotauon between the public and theprivate sectors has been established as a basis for long term EechnologicaE

development, particularly thrixigh publicly financed research programmes,
wtth the wide paiticipatlon of private enierptise.
Iilspaititulaily Important at ihe moment, that those cnuniries which are

now mavtng

from ccninlly planned

vjgoroiuly

lo

iTurKci oticnird

economies, should c-rcognlze the limitabons as well as the benefit of d^market economy,

HHHutmry in PoUtta
There Is 3 need to Jntioduce a new strain of humanity Inro politics. Rectnt

marked loss of confidence In political patties andpersonalities, contempt tor bureaucracy, voter abstention, and a generalyears haveseen ajljouiioti fiom the mibli^hmrnt and soctfty. This rray br due pjnEy 10
overccntiallzacion,whichburcauciailc oppression.

depersonalizes
It

li

a

the

system,

and

pardy

to

sympTom of deep malaise. Leaders andbureaucrats seem to tiaue forgotten that pditics I as economics) Isconcerrted

with people and is meant to Ktve peijple. Until humanity and compassion

permeate polltia and politicians go beyond metely kissing babies during
election campaigns, allenabon will pecstst.

Tht Inttmatatmal iJxirKmnm

We

have

already

touchedupon^cvcialdlfficulnesoftntemjtlL^nal

gov«mancc,jl which level nuny of cbendtioiul problems tend to dtcumjbte
and become compounded The trend lowaitis globaLity and the rfcogniUon.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

Missing pageGinvmance and the Capaa^ ttf Qnvtn • 127
ccrQin problf ni art js m npcnsltating a combined apprtncll from several oF
rf>c

spccjalizcd bcdjcs.

Programmes could

^n be

wri

up

in

which the^?n^^ ^?uLd u^c pirt by coDQibyQng b^th finance ind ^Kpcr^s^, w|d)some supporLfroTH [be centre where ippiofviHe Such i scheme would man,

greater influence ofdw UN cenliem the woik of die specialist bodies, bul thismtght noE be- a bad thing if it could be done i^itb mlEkimum bureiucmk
Intcideience and if the piogiaTJimcs were gcnutneJy Jutonomoua,

New j^^iToaches nt: also needed In the working of some of ihc individual
sgcndes. [nlcrgovcmmcntalcweanizatLons.juH js governmental agencies on
the njdonal scale, are not the Ideal locacions for conducting research on the.

Thev»

an sflmuljie rrwarch, foimubte problems, jnd piovide for usefulimcmationai discussions, but the lack of sufficient Eunds prevents ihcm fromundertaking rescuch in depth. Iheu work is esicntjiliy caCalyQc,

The vast number of topics ^vhkh an organization luch i$ iJaacxf has Co
examine makes II impossible ID have a competent staFf, cirpeit In all thedetails of the subjccis awcrcd.

FuiiheTmore, Jicas of pjratubi concern

necessarily changen so chai many niittCf 5 that are In focus are ody lempoiatllyon The agenda, wtth ibc new points of attack requiring quite a different set ofskills r Tbli

problem Is dealt with by the use of consultant In most agencies,

but jl seems more efficient to adopt a policy of delegating responsibrllty for
pdrtiojEar studies to themo^ competent iniUcu^n in the woe id for cKh

subject undertaken

ScJecdon of competent Individuals should be cssenOally on tfie basis ofquality and there should be no question ofapplying the principle of the 'Tuste
retour'. With such a s-ystem, the headquarters will have a staff consisting of

the best tialiKd individuals with moat wide ranging imprests, and contaos

could be kept quite small.
Finally

wc must mention the question of leaderahlpn with especialreference to the high qualitiei looked ftw in the person who js ihe Spadary-

CeneraL This subjeahas been usefully discussed inarecentreportoftheDag

Hammatsktold Foundation, The UN Chatter described d>e holder of the postof Secrelary-Ceneral as essentially the chief administrative officer

erf

the

organization, but it soon became obvious that important political mediatitn

and kadtrshlp functions were Incvlubk, In the icformcd dEid accvc UniEcd
Nations ofthefmurc, the Image of the Secretary-General IsvUall]/ important.
For millloELs of people throughout the world fie personalizes whx wt>uJd

otherwise be seen as yet another vast bureauaatic machine. This individual isrequired to possess almost superhuman qualities. He or she Ithete has not yet

been a feminine caixlidate} must bebcave and at the same time cautious^ aswell as highly lntel]lg.ent, diplamaric and fnnovatJven have an outstanding

Auteursrechteliik beschermd inateriaal

Missing page

Gozvmarur and thf Capacity 10 Gffptm * 129
in i way whkh eiKoungp s thfm id idmdfy with it:— chc capacity

to relegate snaicgy tad tacQcs Eo thdr proper place as themeans ind not as eitds;— willingness

to ser up jyscemw thiough which d>cy can listen In (o the nc<dsoi ih? citizens, their feats, demands, and suggesQoEis,

These cheri arc soTfKof the dcfidersD.WhaE About ih«pK&emi«alldej^ At
present,

even In those counoles where coirapdon kn govcmmenc Ji not

rampani, the rewards of leadership, which In theory arc those of serving
focicty and che fsliifactton of doing a good )ob, uc In pracDce all loo often

cnfoyrnent of power. Hence, those who presencthemselves for election, rend
to be indlvldiuls with morr thjn ihr average vjnlty jihJ urge For power overothers. These arc hardly the crtterta for the selection of the widest people toguide the world through the dl^culnes of the revolution. As things are now,

many people of high quality who have the potential to become nattonaS or
world leaders avoid entering the political aren^ wi^ all it^ vulgarity andhackbiting and the paucity of its rewards to thoic lor whom power m not the
primaty consLdeiaQcai,

Much attention Is [herefore required in the selecuon of our leaders. At
present, this Isdoneby asuivivjlof^the^flllest process which tends to selectpersons who are overtly self -seeking and at limes even witling to sacrifice thecommon good for dic^t pcrKnHl or party ambinom, Th? quillilc! ^rhlch ate
essential for &x jnalnmcni of high office are thus fiequenily the very
attributes which make the Individual unfit for It. Chailsma is an extremely

important asset for a leader, but it is not the only requirement and is very
often associated with other less desirable qualities, let, thanks to televislonn

charisma Is probably che most Important ingredient in winning elecdotu. It isdifficult to sec

how this can be chang:cd; it will certainly not happen fromwithin the lyatem, and there ks therefoie a need for wise individuals without

poUilQl jmbitlon to point out diese prot^emi to the public^
Political decisions are seldorrj based on rational thinking. They are normallybased. In each Individual case, on a complex mixture of intuition, experience,
personal and often unconscious moDvittons,

and(jjiutiainlsof politicaldogma and expediency. This is unlikely to change, but the process can be
improved; better and more chotoughly atulyscd information can be madeavaiUblcmraivaflons can be more consciously recognized and thus modified,andexpediency

can

be

replacedifthesystempermits

longtcrm

considerations.

In the changing circurnstanccs

wc have mentioned diioughoutn

csscnWlthacfotward looklnggovcmmentsatalllcvclsdcvciopsomc

l<

ts

'tent

of policy entrepreneurship, and not nvrely maintain stability and harmony

Auleursrec Intel ijk beschermd materiaal

130 • Tht First Ghhtd EiPoiHtum
jmld^htwh III oF confusing Ctfcno. It is necessaryihattheshipoEsaif should
nor only be kcpCdfloalrbulthdl II should be sle^rfd, surely indddibcTdlely,

tow^ a deslied (kaUniuon, Thiu io a deprr, Fuiurr govonmencs mmt
become social aichltects. Far chi^ parpose. 3 much deepci andcontinuing disc uuion of Issun Is requjjed whhin d>c frameixnxk of njtichn^l
and world irend? The ^uff EttnfUon b^omcs even moF<; importani and (hewhoFc in and icitnct ot policy advice comei ^U> qucraon. Policy advisers
leatn u>should notallbe olfKLals, but should mclude individuals fiom ziuny

dlKipiincs ind wJtKouT polnkil parly affilijiions

The s(ib)cci of policy

jnalysc^isof-enEor disc us^jon and much ihoughimusf be given >£ 10 how thisd&pcct of the iuS Funcoon

on be kiUlizcd.

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd irrateriaal

9. Agents of the Resolutiquc

AdjustrntDt (o dungt is iht hind^mrnQl cIuIIce^c that uivlctllc^ all tht
constituent ^li^maiis of &ie pioblcm^ciquc analysed in ihc first put of thisbook, i challenge jddtcsicd to ai^ ibc people

d out planet, whatever thdr

culture, training Tiadltfans, religion ot philosophical ouibok. The prirrury

agents of the rc&oiLiEiquc aierhmc^ eIiji ^iJIdlbw Jjidividuali jndsodcQoio

lum bow to jdapt lo ibt dunge^ thai are consQntly modifying tbe fi£e of theplanet.

Any ehangC.

forthe better or

fpr

worse,

involves

Icamir^,self

CEamlninon, and one's relationship Co others and Co the oivlronmeDlr Inner
questioning

demands effofi and will Incvtiably be difflculi. Having been

btoughi up to tiki i fitm amd om their eetticude&— valuej, profe&jlon. Faith.

and so on- hum^n bfing^ are

now iaclng

not onechange,but anuninterMipledchainoEchjnges thj[ affect the very otlentabon of [betrbves.

To make things moic difficult, changi^E arc succeeding one anothei with
unprecedented speed. The challenge is therefore not to adapt once and for all
to 1 new Kituadon, but to get

mm a perrruiu^nc stat« of ada^tanon in order tobe able to iiCc iinccitalnty, die new d^menskins of con^plexliy and insldtous
or brutal changes, and avail of potential oppatiunliies a^cting our world as awhole and each human bdng In his or ha Immediate et^rotunent
A mutant situation such js this does not mean ihal the human bemg should
passively allow himself to be iltcred by dungn or suffer

dKm without t

reacdon. Neither does It imply that he must live under peimancnt stiess
i>ecause of not knowing how to underrand or ^dapt to the unprecedented

phenonKna. What instruments on he use lo undectt^nd the changes andsafeguard his frecdomi

How can he become, not an i^oldted spectator

Auteursrechtelijk bescheMnd materiaal

132 • The ¥mt Ghbd RtvitlMtitm
wallowing in hi^ own pnsiinl&m, but in ictor, organizoi and capable olconiributlng ihroogh his spiric ot InnovaOon and his wlll^powcr (o ihc
building oF ihc kind of »cle[y h? deeply dsires.

rhcindividualhds three agenu of the re&oluikqucai his dlspo&alro help him

through [his TransitionaJ period. There 1^ nodding \tiy new about d^im. but
the tesolutique apptOich gives ihcm the prOpe: dirtiCnsians. They Ait ihelearning challenge of education, [he conltlbuclon of tclence and the newtechnologies, and the role of ma^ media.
In alE the piccedlng chapECrs. wc hi>c used dinereni terms xa refer to theame imperative: to leatn- to undersiartd. to communicate- to infoim, to
jdjpc, Lo minage. Thf^ words hjvc rung Inslsccndy throughout bccausr, in
Eact, thcproblemotcducationconsandy appears as a leitmotif— learning tn

and fromlife

and nor|usf

what Is Taught in scbooL undcE^i^nding thechangeable world m which we live, ad|usling to new technologies, engaging
In Inteidksclpllnary communlcatJon of the global dimension tnio whkch

wehave been projected, acUng wJih a scn&c oticsponsJbllliy £ducadDn U all this,.

even if the term may seem worn out from overuse. Indeed, the educatioiial

sys^ms of [i»st countries are undergoing a crisis and seldom satisfy emstingneeds.

Wc now have to define cthci ob|ectlvcs and other prbiides foreducauon, as we aie Increasingly aware that the educational syirems, theschcxjls, the universities are only partly ensuring what

we call education, andthat the family, the professional framework and many other sodaC cells aie, onvarious levels, playitkg the most important roles in educauon. The crises in

cducitjon m3kci it anesscmialcleineniof the world prablemjcique. but iti&increasingly appeaiJngalsoIIu a privileged agent tA die resoluUque. This whyIsrequires prime arncuiauon in the probiemalique^resoiutlque pair.

The dtaUer^ afkarmi^First of allp

wc must repeat that m our view the term 'cduuLion' goes fat

beyond chac imparted by the existing school systems. We see the mostimportant task of educauon B iunun^ (vrv U lam' Jt may be a trulstn to say thaieducation is the key to improving the quality of human resources. Bui
education must be understood as conslstli^ of a series of processes that not

only shape vocational qualifications, but also enable the individual to actualize
hli oi hei potential by absorbing and nnasiering the cultural factcns necessary

for intelligent participation in society, for the acceptance of responsiblllly. andfoi the mainierance -of Que hunun djgnJiy,

Unfortunardy, knowledge and social relations have reached such a slate ofL.

^cNaUnMiLrdnflii|,icpatlta the Club DdtQinc. ^Podin. Elirundiii. Miltta. JV7g}.

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal

coinplnlty thai ih? educational system has bfcorriF a nattiial pify \o [hreraffljtuons - plethora of knowledge, anathronismE, and unsunabilfty^This

jflffwra if bvirif%

applies Co aU age IcveU

ih-csh«r sale of thejccumulatiofi of knowledge jn all fields means ihai *c tx) haigcc know how
to 5el«i whjt should be ajnsmiEwd to children and ^nidenis.

To Ott an

example, the quaiDty of icieniilic and lechnltra! publlf JTlons in 15S6 alone
equalled ind perhaps surpassed that of all scB^alji^ jnd opots Erom theren>ote*r pail up to World War [[.tfcw Is such a fiood of Information to besotted out' How IS 11 to be traiumlited'

How can we select what Is to be

trarrtm[itcd^

Ajio^Fuimm occur because this flond of Informstton Is constantJv bringrenewedi Ideas are modified as new knowledge 45 added dn and <iualifi« die

old TcL practically txwhete ate pdmaryand secondary teachers tetialncd.
They teach what they were taughi twenty years before in quite a different
cnvlionmcni. Even with rcLrajning - which would be Emtnense progress inii^eLf -they would eDII be behind dnKs stnce it b not po^iibLc to pass on

knowledge undl khas matuted az^ been fuUy ab^rrbed by the br aln, and thisprocess takes drnCr
UnsHJfflftfjfLi Is

what canfuscd children and vcung people feel characterize!

the conventional educatTon they receive, since ildoesnotprc^rly relate to
the world they have lo face. Television and strip cartoons, novels andscience-fiction films, the univerEe of conaete, glass and a lu minium, all seem avery far cry from whji i: uught di sdiool. All too often, uocjuonil Hiining
does not prepare them for the crue nee<kof the labour znarkci and sotncdnies

even trains them for johs that no longer ems:. This situation ts difficult toremedy since the effects of structural and cuiriculuni retorm -with all theirunwanted side effeCD - are fell only In the bng term, after at least ten or
fifteen ycits.

Moicovct, the actual length of that long term cannot be

predicted.

U&leiip kx^p uni]«r$lJrdpfQr|husl|l^aiitJrrii

Danoibeldle, donoiw^lk

How sfiould you live?
How sl-icuJd you go on fer a sliort time? Thev iJy " 's v*ry difTioill to liveon lite earth, a pNce of [erriflc stajigle, my lltllf UdVj ir>y Unle bJrd, myaimlessly, do rK>r wander without a d»tinatloii.

irctle oTtt.

amxImfroETi Hc/^^Lwc/jcd^l

Jf educaOon has

been dadltionally considered li a function of teaching.

L A 1^ ircnturr pcc-Cokinibun qiwADDn cdlmol b^ Bcnudlm dc Satugun.

Auteursrechteliik beschermd materiaal

today and even more in the future, education should m«ntJicjifniiflnfFt(fiTft(fltfkanin^ by cveiy human being in hkIcij, LcimJn^ how to idipt to change
hjs become one of the new primary objccavcs of cducaOon.

human beings begin to learn by ictlng,
pjrtlclpjdng 3nd cxpcilmcndngH and not mctdy looking on pj&^ively. Eventn early childhood, a human being Is learning lo be i proagonl&t rather thm i
Fromvcij infancy,

chclE

speciaiot.

It Isthrough this active relationship with his human, naiutal andphyskat envltorunent, and solely in this tdadonsbkp, that a person s ^nseoF
independence,

petson^lity

and aeativjty

willreach a

high

level

of

drvfLopmcnc. Ic^uld br icmembcred, though, thitcoaccposldvdydon
not imply the non-observance of all rules or the reiecnon of restrictions.

The education of every human "being u any age must embrace the multiple
functions dut mark the learning process and guide ittowards the Immediate
future, with die following ob}cctives:— acquJTtng knowledge;— siruciunng mtelllgencc and developing die alQcal

faculties;—developing self- knowledge and awareness of one's gifts and limitab'ons:^learning to overcome undesirable impulses and destructive behaviour;— pennanendy

activating eKh person's creadve and Imaginative faculties;—learning to pay a responsible role In sociciy;—learning to communicaie with others;—helping po3p3f

to pr^pait for ind jdipt to chuige;—enabling each person lo acquire aglofjal view of the world;—

training people lo become capable of solving problems.

In

the world of today, these last four points constitute the onl^ way to

pEepare future adults to face die world of tomorrow, but they are snil
practically Ignored In the classic educational proces^s. All kinds of more or
lesscofivinang

reasons

are producedtoeitplain

this

gap

— from theoverloaded cuirJcula to die inadequate training o( the teachers In quasi-

exploredfields.

Somecountries,

such

as

France,have introduced

acompulsory subjecr which they call Civtc Education in the school curncularIt^ems obvious that

'Woild Education',asa subteci, or belter yei'IntToducnon to the Great World Problems and the Problcmatique' should

henceforth be i compulsory subject in the ctlucation of children andadolescents.

The role of the teacher to whom die future of the child is entrusted is one of
the most noble roles of society and requires dedicanon Tel in many places theleacfier Is under valued, underpaid and given a relatively low status in society.

Auteursrechtelijk beschertnd materiaal

136 • The Firrr Giobal Rji^luTum
jdjustmcm to cfungc 3ad the managcmcncof Instablllcy so ;mo be crc^dve J
For ibeli spiritual and imclleclual balance- for thdr ability to overcome
90-calkd^€^^fyh|[<k^ti?nSrltie7 need new arms which ihey can actually findwjihin themselves, thou^ they ate not awate of them and have neverpracticed ustng them- 1 hey weH have CD resoii lo combinations that havebe^scorned tor toolong. 'Thehuinanb(lngisllhinkingtMd,' WtOUP^iCal/Bulthat whkh Is cerebral and imxUeoual In a humtn being cannot approach as

myslcrtous a truth f^ re^kv unless ii tesorts to searching the appatendy
inatkonal, the intuitive, and the emotional elements, which ate. to a great
ejttent, the foundation of human telaclonshlp$-

The lole of eduntton k thus eurn mor? viol than wc havf imaginfd. Bui ii
will take miich research and wotk to ccthlnk the concept of education andena"ble It to acknowktlge the dimensions of the needs In the coming times

such diat the educatois of today and tomorrow wlllbclna bcttci position to
discover the Immens^y and the nobility of their task: Do lead the way to an

cvoluiion of ihc

mind dnd behaviour ^d thus give birth io the new

dvilization.

The Uhfiihutwti oficuTfce ami technolftffyIn

chc Industdaljzed countries of du Noith, society has been sluped by[echnology, iheit way of life has adapted icself Co make full use of it, andprosperity has been butit on 1l. Technology Imported from the Industclall^ed

wofId Is also being used Ir the urbanized areas c>f the South. At the same time,
many of the problems of concemporary sodety have b«n aused direcdy or
Indirectly by technology or, mtne often, by Its misuse. It is to be evpecied,therefore, that technology wich lis seminal partner science will be an c&^eLinal
dement of cbc tAolutiquc,
Science and lechtxilogy are too often lesumcd to be more or less two
aspects of die sanK ching— 'research and development gives rise to sdcnce

and technology.' In reality the system of sdence and that of technology arev«y different. That of science fcsopen and lis produc: is freely disseminatedthroughout

theworld: thai of technology

isdirectedbv economic

motivaucKU and ilA products are (cabusly guarded com meicial pioperLy-

ThciolcofKlcncclatouncovcikno'rvledgc. lLexploicstbcun}uwwnat>dprovides new tiata. Data is not in itself informatics but the raw material ofinftirmation. which human inielligcnce through a ptocessof selection, orders

and coalesces to ptodiKe infomutkin. A niutilx of informabon can become

illfaPiigogirK. Nobel laureate In 111 vi^ 11^ jmcmbcr of [he Club of Rome, Lkvekip«dia
loptc bf llllanUy in hli works-

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

knowltdgf.

Againknowledge(£a«sponunroudf

no I

goierjtf

undersiandiE^g; for thi$ li requite? wisdom bom of CKpcricncc. VciMi wc -ace

which runs from crude ixA. [hroughmto-rmation and knowledge to the end Teflnemenr al wisdom Dau we
concerned withi

H:onilnuuin

poss«& in large quantities, but inFormadon can easily be concealed jnd lost jn
JE&dJHirder. Today we have enormously greater amounts oFinFormatEonindki>owlcdgc about

mm and the universe than out lotcfathcrt hid. but thcic

ate few sips thai human wisdom h^s incteased signlhc^ntk ovet the \ii\ f l^e

thousand yeais

In these difficult and complei:

nmeswe begm loiealiie thaithe putsuit of wisdom Is the essential challenge dial faces humai^ily.

Where IsTheknowledBf w^iftllsk>st ininforruttor?

And where ii ttw wisdooi thai Is tosr in hnvwredgie?
T.S. Eliot-

One would expect thetefore that teseatch on the luEuce of wisdom and \iigenetation would be of ifie highest pnoriLyr But have wc the ingredients losrati such a ^tojcct. acid if ptesented to otic of the gieac [^search [oundaiicins.

hope of accepartc-;? However, m teceni years muchknowledge has been gained on die workings of the btiin. on hum^r
behaviour, and indeed on the nature of homo upiens. ^och inlerdisciplmaty
would

it

reseatch,havea-whichbiochemistry,

involves

neurology,

physiology,

endocrinology, molecular biology, psychology, anthropology andmanyother sciences, holds gteat ptomise and should be jciivcly mppocied,althou^ Its finding may seem, at thJs stage, metelv theoreucal. It should
explotenoEonly the rational mind, but also emotional and intuitional aspects

ofhemgwhKhplaysuchantmporuni part in the life of the individual and Arej[ the toot of his appjiendy inatlorul a[iliude^

jnd behaviour

Researchalmedattheextensionofknowledge and conducted witEioutthc
aim of immediate practical use js known as pure o[ fundamental research and
It isusually undettafcen in the laboiatoilc^ of universities oi, asm the Eastof Academies of Science. Scientific

European countiies.

in

tfle

Euiopcati countries,

in

die Insiltuw* of Academics of Science Sclenitfic

undersiandlng, iti^ng fiom

institutes

puie researchisanessential

clementofcontemporary culture. University research also has an important educational
functionr Umvecsitv teachers who are Ktively engaged in research and hence

working at die advancing froniier^ of knowledge ate able to cransmlt ihc splnr

1.

Biimh p«i dnd Mctr^r iiUA-iW]

Auteursrechteiyk beschermcJ materiaal

138 • The First GkMRffftlutmt
of eHc scientific meihod and to Inspuf thtir ^ludmts. This function Isu

Imponant In the less developed k in ib? Indusiriillzed countries. Indeed n Is jpterequisltc to the undersonding of today's wtirld, necessary l[ the offeringof science and technology arc lo be of use in the process of development

There is 3 second type of fundamenal research ir^cieasingly puisued inindusmaliZMi \t%\i}t\%. (\^tt\t\y oriented fundarnent^J research, which is an
essential

pan of the inpui In the dewlopmcm ofthemost advanced

technologies. Such research, while not expected lo have direct praccicalapplication,

eliminatedisin

needed to identify areas of ignorance which have lo be
the develt>pment of advanced technicalrc^jrch mjy be cattied oui

inprocesEes, Such

the Ijboniorir^ of corpotJiion& or

undercontract In universities- Itcanrhusbf^ very useful link between tndusrry andacademic

Much re^e^ich [odayIsof a direc[ly applied nature, aimed at solving

spccihc problems in indusliy. agriculture or the public services. It may beresearch in ;hc ndiur^l ^cicncn iuch

n chcn^lsn^y. physics dnd biology, or i^

economics and chc behavioural sciences Indeed, the complexity of so many

coniemporary problems demands a cotnbined Attack from several disciplines.
Experience shows thai in such multidisdplinary approaches, research workers

from m^ny sciences, natural and social, in dealing widi ^ particular complex
problem, soon acquire a degree of communication which transcends theboundaries between the disciplines. The cultivation of mullidiscplinary
research is uigenrly required by the resolutlquc.

ItIs

difficult to generate

within the uniuer^ines, &ince they jre uerdcjlly organized into departments

and faculties which often have liltleamlaclwitheachother^Apphed researchrrwax. be intensified

m the developing .countries where

ic is already widely, if

InsufficieniJy, pursued in the agrfculiuial sector. In such countries it a muchlesscommon m indusliy. siiKe the small size and relatively law level ofiophisiicatJon of firms mikes 11 difficult» Identify technical prijbkmi or 10

afford to employ scientists to solve them.

Technological development is the essential
industrial innovation.

Ii.

but only the initial step inconsists of bringing together technicalknowledge

acquired ihrcugh research or purchase, and todevelop it through j chemicalpilot plant or engineering prototype so as to be a reliable and effecnve

nianufaaurmg process, which is competitive In the market- Thccost of thedevelopment phase is usually greater than [he cost of the reseatch stage on
which IT

IS

based

However, there are many other elements involved in

cechnologicdt innovation, such as market surveys to test the potential demand
for thenew product and hence its economic viability, the acquisition of risk

capital and management shI Is. as well ds recruitment and training of a reliable

Auteu^srechteli|k beschermd materiaal

Missing page

140 • The First GXtMRtmlutum

wc dcsnoy ^ and f+>ereby ounclvw.
wiving or jlIpYlaQng man^ of the contcmponr^ problems. These

3i

Innovaiions will be both remcdtal jnd prevcnDvc, Vic shall outline here itew of the most obvious lines of jctack.
Fintas alrndy sfT«5ed. riwK Is an immediate nctd foi a iwa^iivc camfdlgn

energy conservation and efficiency.

for

On

the consetvaoon side, therequirement 1i more for ihe appiicsuc^of well uiidersrood Eechniques thanfoicncirch. However, if thks Is lo succeed [here wlII have lobe considerable
changes In human habln, and chl5 w/lU cnuil new iciivides In the sodal
wlcrTces.

Th^rc rs. houjtver, great icopc for rficarch aimed at Improving

efficiency in the genefiuon,

uansinitsion and utilization of energy (torexaiTiplc» by using supezcondLiaoi^].

in the design of

new types oi en^nes in,michlnesofawideviiretyofEypes, andmcheErLicalm^nubcruit' Techniquesof energy accounting: need to be developed and applied. WhJle the bulk ofthese effoits will have to be made in the tounoles of the Nonh with theirenergy Imei^ve eccmom^. the South with Is incicjsmg papulations will
fice the same needs, k Is encouiaglng [o note ibe recogni [ion of this In die

recent 'Nairobi Declaration on Climadt Change'[Ma? 1W0|.

Secondly, ItvFlllbenecessary (o give i very high priority loan Iptematkmal

ptogtammc of rcscaich on altein^Qve energy sources and simibr work infuskm developmentmagnetohydrodynamlcs and the whole range of soft energies. Workshoiild
Individual counoiC3- This should include nuclear

iho bf jccelenied on Ehe possibilities of i futuie hydiogeti «onomy, ihc gas
being produced by the decoitiposiOan of watei by eleorolydc or caialydc
nicans.Thts is not an altetnacfve energy but an energy transmisslDn methodforuse in luiomobjies,

discouraged

for earthaircraft,and so on,

if oilbecomeB

costlyor iswjrming reasons.

fteyond this, the search tnusi go on for new, clean technolcrgies and foi

ways to clean up uadirlona processes- In the chemlcaJ Irhdustry, for cjtample,
I

research could be directed cowards ImprovtDg nKthods of manuEaccuteincluding reiearth on new catalysts S«cJtch In this Induary must also be

aimed at Rndfng ways to make toxic wastes harmless with mttilmum energy
espendilure Here, as in other industries, reseaich on recycling techniques isrequired. A further tzsk for the chemical indus^y 4j to dcv^ bode^AdAUc
plastics for packaging and other purposes.

In agriculture and ihc jgrci irkdastriCS a deUrmlMd iHon \i MededU

reduce energy me. Much useful research is already in progress in breeding
non- leguminous cereah capable of ^xing their own nitrogen, which will
reduce the u«e of nittogcnous fcitllizcjs. More woik is required to repUcc

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd inatenaa!

AgetmoftbtRaotuiiijw • 141
chemical p«ticld« b^ Uolo^c^l coniral sysicms. uj Jnimstfy icscjtcK in
genetic engineering

w as to provide basic cereal crops with grcitcj tcsisiance

Lo insect and fiuig^ld^mige dud dlfo lo po^ibk changa m cIJeihic.

In ibefteld of trark^porEalicm dJK> Inteiesting workLs In progress iiiKc, inview of [he desirabjikyof encouraging communal Qivdllng, new ^ndflcKible&)rstcms of urban trazsporadon aic urgently required.

SfMHH

atii

ittkntla^^iof

Atfdtpmnl.

CHspailtfcs

between developed anddeveloping countries in&ctenceandlechnology are even greater than in theireconomic leveb. Same^ per centof the winld's research and development

carrted out in the industnalized councnes.

Ii

Is

is

aUo true &ai the poorer icountry i&, che grwicr will be [he pioporOon of Its tcienOsts wgaged In

fundamental research. While the large developing counoles such as BraztL
India and Mexico have an Infiasauauie capable of supporting a slgniflcanc

CKtent of applied te$eaKh and development. In die tai of die developingworld thereisLitde appl;ed

research other than Ln agriculture. In luchcountrin, a mcic Incicisc In [he numbrr ol ^cjentisu i^ unlikely lo influetxe

eoKKimic growth; indeed it u more likelyto increase the brain drain. This isbecause there Ls generally no employment ftn the scientists in the productive
seoots. Sdence in ibese countries can only contribute slgniflcandy todevelopment if Ir Is tndmately linked with the produciTve process.
It \igenerally accepted that i impi, dnd perhaps Ik indict need in ihc

devcbpmeiLt of the South is the creatian of an indigenous capacity in eachcountry for research and development. This was the main conclusion of the

UN Conference on Science and Technology for Devebpment held tn Vienna
in 1979, at

ivhich various Anandal and other mechanisms were devised tomake this possible. After morcthan a decade, however, there is litde to show.
Yet the need remaim to build this capacty if the developing countrtes are toenter the modem world economy There is a vicious circle here Jf productive.

cjpKity js [0 grow jud hei^ce If development Is to ukc pUcc. i criticalscientificand technological

Infrastructureisnecessary.

¥et

such

an

infrdfCTUcture seems impos&rble to build unless it is In symbiosis with the

The means to overcome this impasse present a vialchallenge to the countries corKenied and to the International community.
productive meanSr

Thr Toit of man mtdiit

The impact of ma^ media en public o[>Ln]onjnd Individ uah no IcrngcE h^tobe demomtraied: a larger and larger part of huTn^nkind will henceforth be
deeply influenced by theradioand tele vision prf^rimmes it has access to. For

bener or for worse, the media are among the main agents involved in formjng
public opinion and influencing [ht! Lhiiiking of individuals.

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

142 • The first GtehtdRrPslutvm
The rol? oF miss m«dla, however has so f^T ntvcr betn d«ply^ly^ ^,all Jrs dlmcnsJons,

Wc know veryllttlr dbout the Ddtur? and durition of ihe

mHuence of various media. Out ECisonkng Is based more on impressions anddun on clearly esabllshcd facia- even In die West, litc
phenomenon IS sail recent and the leasonlng Is founded on the reactions ot
Western public opinion. In developing rauntrles the phenomenon u evenmore recent and stiU of quiic limited scope, i^hich makes d>e $cudy of thereactions in these countries more problematic.
rhc icdctions that have been recorded so far are for ihe most part cillicalwhen diey dre not outright ncgauve- the iziesponsLblty of journalise
hypotheses\ifrequently ctlUclied,nIstheir subjccttvity and6c1t lick of pofoslonjl

cthics.fiutthegeneralroleof massmedlaistoonewfor ustobeabletodraw
definite conclusions alum It. This

uwhf

it is

hltlng to consider the question of

the true power of mass media, and of the role they now play and can play In

future in the bulldmgofthe new global socictyr The answer to these questionsi^ccnsitaLes i dialogue with

CDmmui^icidon profcsslonaL with a view lo

fmdmg out what role they are ready to a^ume, not only for a better
comprehension by the public of the world problematiquc, but also of themaliLikqu^,

Experience has shown that the power of the media often refer ted to Is not
justan Impression There is no question about the reality of such power-

consider, for example, the role pEayed by transistor radios In Inciting theAlgerian war of IndependeiKe, or the pressure brought to bear by the press inthe Watergate aflair

which kd to the leslgnatlon of cbc prRident of theUnited Slates.

The medi J aba represent a balaixing power In democracies by exposing
pollncal or financial scandals, as also by defending consumer interests.

true that they are alleys in danger of being in*niputaicd
political

regime— dueLopolitical

ptcssure,

—

It Is

whatever the

ecoiwmic

Intcrcats.

disinformation procedures or even self-censorship. Mass media, especiallytelevision, have acquired considerable power over the last two decades- they

have not, however, reached the level of maturity and rGponslbilicy which <hcexercise of such power would require. Where development is concerned,
television has often complacently displayed horrifying images of the hunger

and death of children in Ethiopia and Sudan, images that seem to have beentaken out of Nazi coikcentratlon camps Viewers across the world have been.

amply exposed ro the sensational aspects of underdevelopment and havebeen brutally shocked by such images.

However, doesn't the public expect this dramatic version of inFormauon?

A frightening even! induces curiosiiv Jnd the newspaper headline War

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal

Missing page

144 • The Pint GhkUR^PotMim(bscunlons.

Envlronnvnal and pollutton j»ues

src

Omldly making anappearance In fotmc pcogrammoH while development Is jusi bcginnjng ro

be trcjicd in l{5 pralQve dspMO.

Wc prcvlouEiy mcnOoned in aui fKomiTKndjtion^ a number of mofc
spedfk subject! thai have co be brought co ihc acccnbon oFchc pubbc (hrou^
fducanoiul prog^amrtit^^. ^ufh a envirsrtfflf auI pfoKcfloft, owrgy avlng,
the role of science and lechnology, ihe Incerdependen-ceof countrlnln the

North and those in ihe South and whalthis means for each Ddhem, and so on.

The freedom of mEortnitlon, the Ereeactes foraJJ to Information and thepfi] ralism of InfixnHllon remain *e noble causcjof bacdes never totally won

md foiewCT waged 3g3ln. In ihc process of jdipOng To change, crfconanut>uslearning inatransiuonal society,andof adiusting

to uncenauity

andconnplexiCy. (be tole at dnc media becomes comideiabLe,wnb the)oumali&Es and top niedJa executives in order to deRne theii new role. This U[I willcertainly be necesjary ro engage In a broad debate

dn inlQitivr the Club of FUitnc will ccctiiniy taXc a [he flisi seep In i long
dialogue^

Auteu^srec^lteli|k beschermd materiaal

10. Motivations and Values

Wc rclumchncc morelDoncof thcmainmollfsof ihecontcmporiry *«ik.
the domlnani inllucrtcc of technology in shaping our lives and society.

RcvoluWnp ^vc have gradually aOapicd out
jspiiaiions dnd iifestyJes lo fit in wl[h an ever moie &ophj$<lca[cd ^nd petv^s jve
technology which has pennlned die «n)oymeni of what has bcei^ seen as
Scdrrng Ertnn the IndusDJdl

mjterul proigres. This has, ai course, incrca&ed die pcosperkry of i wjdc
cross section of [he populaOon in the Industrialized couniries, while reducing

poverty. Improving health condlttons, extending Ufe especl^ncy, providing
general. If not always appropriate, education, and introdudng inany social

amenities. The recagniOan ih^i technology has a detern^in^uve mie In world

dewlopment is relatively recent and, ev«j today, the economic iyncm which
relies so heawJiy 00 technological solutions to problems, has not yet fully cometo terms with ti. It Is still Implicit In the thinking of many economists thatlecbnologtcal developments ajtse ^om the Inter actioTi of economic fraces andare,

jsJiwcre. one of the muscles of Adam Smith's 'Invtslble hand' There is

no doubt much

truth in this; however,morr and morr trchnologica]innovatKjns originate from discoveries Jn the sclenUAc laWatotlcs^d could

not have been foreseen. Thecefbie, sdcnce is (he autonomous force which
gives lise to profit motivated technology, In cteaiing

new products andsystems, and hence new demands.

Despite the unwanted social and ecological side effects of tcchnobgyn andi general suspicion of It as the creator of the nuclear

bomb and of genetic

manipulanorts, general expectationsaf an cver-mcreaamg affluence and more

and more niaierijl possesions flowing from it pcisist wjthin an economk
sysiem which Is driven by the sdmulallon of consumer spending and credit

Auleursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

146 • The Fmt GUIml B^Pt>lmim
The lu:furl« of yesrcrday become the nccc^lQes of todiy;
pUnncd olMolciccncc speeds up the Eumover o{ goods, the «as[ti iA jodcty
dvilJibiLiy,ucumulileand are even more difficult lo dispose of as HJenQfk: saphlstiudon
diffuses Into ever^y goods.

There is, of course, the other side of the coin. Considerable amounts ofwealth from economic growth hive been dtverted to the Creadon af social
ber>eflts— uneinploynient bene^ls, healthservices, education, and welfare

mea&utcs to reduce poverty In a number of couhhICh this process has been so.

strong thai It has evolved to form the welfare sate, which U benefidaT but hx,

psychological costs. For Instance. It is felt by miny that the welfare approachcncouiagc^ ah ovci reliance on the sate, wich an utibcalihy loi^tlng ofindividual responsibility and InlQadve.

The pcernahsm of employers, thatwas resented so much by the trade unions, has been replaced by thepaternalism of the state whose huge bureaucracies are. In turn, regarded as
distant, faceless and Impersonal.

Thematerialistic

technology baicd

approachtodcvelopmcnih^penetrated Into societies and cuhures of all lypcs, and even the most tigid
fundamentalist cultures find Ir impossible to resist the pnnnlse trf power andaffluence which il appears to offer. The goal (>f material 3^uence SMMS 10
gctvciaie gieed and selfishness. Not that these features ha ve ever been ibsent
In Individuals and sodedes. but they appear to be magnified by the shrinking

oon materialtst values- and have become more apparent due to rhetllsclosuies of corrupdon. crime and financial scandals by the press.
of

Our presenl civjiiiation is based materially on an pviraofdinarily
successEul r«hnology and splituail/or practkally nothing,DernlsGabor'

The shorccommg of science isthatalthou^hithascantrjbutcdgicatlyiacHirmaterial well being, promodng health, increasing our lltcspaEin giving us
leisure, it has done llide to enrich human existence, Ln comparism withtlirecdy material Improvements. The imperative need now is to attempt tomaster techixilogy and mould it to suit a human environment, so as to make i\conxribuic to chc general and ^uaiainabie well being ol i\\ peoples in thisgeneration and the succeedmg generations, within a holistic global and evencosmic framework, and to balance material advances by culuvating soclaL

moral and spiritual attributes. This is becoming as obvious in the developing
countries as it is already In the industrialized countries.

I

Cdbor, Ytn

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal

Missing page

148 • The fmt GhihtU Bivotmum
generation {eels ihc jbiencc of d sense oi ^IFand th«y do not know where lo
look fcR j[.

These

feature.

projected

from

che

Individuallevel,

operaw

envuonmml. Nauoul egoism Is likewise
ambtval-cnE! 1[ can express Itself as a natural and desirable bve of one's counn^ynr fihntf community, or
cu b? whipped up lo arouse chauvinism,

anrespondlngly

In diesocialii

xenophobia, racism, hatred of other onin tries at styles of living, and finally locaus« a -kvar. In Inumabcinal negotiations ic often surfaces as the advocacy ofnarrow self tnccte^c by one nation against the wkder harmony and future

own, and often iacttfices
long-ccrm self itiicicsi to scoic Immediate tacrtcal pdnu.
The exigence of these matteis Lsseldojii acknowledged ind when they
do emerge, they ate shiouded in taboo, if this diagnosis Is dt all vahd, theie
well being of a gioup of nations. Including

Itswould seem to be anced for IlfUrtg the taboos and hortcsd^ acknowledging
the existence and power of the negative and positive aspects of tntllvldual andcollective bchavioui, and tot ddoptuig an ippmth based on the cnlighiencd

comrtHHi Inteiests of every inhabitant of this small planet to ensuie thatsustainable physical and social environments can be established for ourselves

and our descendants.
Thisseltcentrctinesj, however. Is merely one aspect of a broader question:

what are the spliJtual and ethical "values that will constitute a Foundation tor
the xwrj global society, the emergence of which we are observing today'

Oh stwler of songi, my ^leJ^tl

Moavadimt atuJ VWmo • 149
pa^lonalc qii«t whtdi tmaruLa from the collective uekoiucIous analysed byCarl |ung.

Individ ujh and groups uc Incmsingly placing this iuuc aithc forctioncof

ibeirconcfim. IhusiheSouthConimjs&hjnHptcs^dcdovcrby lulku&Nyctcrc,

cxpics^ a vcty clear poaltkin In thac respeci In lo last report [1Q90] showing,&tgns of an encouraging rise in awireness:
In xhc final analysis- die Soudi's plea for justice, equity and democracy inthe global society cannot be drssociated tromits

pursuit of these gOals

wlthtn Lis own societies. Commitmeni to democrauc values, respect foi

fundamental rights— paTOcularly the right to diucnc— (air Ufatrrfnc forminorities, concern for the^oor and undetprulleged. probity in public
ItFc.

willingness lo snde dispuEcs without recourse to war—

allthese...

increase the Souths chancn oE securing i new world order.

However, noble dedaritmns such asindividuals and sociPt)es, no longer
aaiviiy,[nthebehaviour of

this,whkih formerly

inspiredsnm to be accepQble in Lontemporar]^peof^ andof states,

even thc«e widi

consntutkmally guaranteed Eights, morals are flouted and the law ignored or
twisied to suLi the EXRivenlence of the authorities- [n 50 many Ed jDorL^h:ps jnd
areas of communxation, the Implicit trend is 'back to the jungle'.

A^ already mcnUoncd. people need tg p«xss a xnx of xlf respect If they
are to lead a life of decent human dlgnlry- This was understoodwellknmany
iraditKinal socteDes,

but it is very dlfflcull to sustain in die whirlwind ofchange. As a consequeiKeofthe many cross-continenal migrations, people
are laced with culturtlconiradtctkins, and often e:tpcneiKe an identity crisb

or are demoralized. In Wc$tem society with rhcLr shallow consumerism'[ham what own' or 'Nmwhitldo', the more FundamentaEaipects of bfc haveI

shrunkinimportaiKe, including those of religion, ethnic

identiity,

andInherited value? anti bellefe. Such i iJtuacion lead* lo hypet individuality,
selfishrie^iof all kinds, over ^consumprkon. a^ well Js an excessive search tor
distraction, as tor instance inTV viewing and drug addiction. There is anobvtoui need foi a newa.pp(a»ch in which values are deliberately inculcatetl
to prtivide spiritual ^cnh and meaning lo the life of the individuaL however,change is very often Kcn a a threat to the self

Have tTad^r^o^^^l values then been suddenly forgotren or abandoned^ Have
ipli nuaKalucsb-een set aside ill at once?

What li the evidence Mn our chapter

on 'The Human Malaise' we Indicated that these values have in tkct been,

progrcsisively rejectedby receni genera.cions.

In the industrial societies

spiritual values have been en>led by the Invasion of niaterialiHn

whkh hasalso infcaed the elite classes in the developing countries. Again, confusion in

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd matenaal

150 • The Fmt Global RfPohaioH
vaiuesarlsFs in BoniF coanttifs from [ht crj;« in ihc ma|ot religions, duelo

tbe djEEicuLty ihfx fjc? in adapting to i world which ti ur>dcrgolng tapld

chnige wjihoui lo^jng chc oKintc

d their mf sa^gc, as wf u of rrsponding toLI

Cht ^rioui questioning of the bewjldcrcd pcc^lc of thdr congregatians.

Moral values aic alio being eroded, since they are fUpandy Jgjwicd by dw

individLulsandudedesloTw-hamibey are presumed robe [he Insplrarloaul
message. Lax behavloui, selfbhness

md nuienjli^m appeac to have madetbcm Inelevani^ But people arc troubled by such ^ympioms. Ncv^ r before has
the issue of values been thesE]b)ec[of so many symposia, discussions and somuch research This demonsiraies that a need Is being expressed with
Increasing intensjiy for J value ?y?iem which would provide stablTlty to the l[feoEindividkiaksandsocEcty.and which would inspire the vision of a syslemaUc

wocid capable of leading to a syaematic future,
C3oes this mean thai a new value system Is In the mahtng, which would be In

opposltlantotradiuonal values or to dvcapadtv of tradlOonai values to lake aitandonihe new challenges, such as gcnetit engineering, thjc no ubk humanconscience and judgement' Can «e speak today of universal human values
ihac would

be common to aW the inhabltancs of the planet, despite thediversity of their cultures?

These questions are not euy to answer and yel they are whiit our future

depends on: ? globaC society on hardly be poaiblc wjthoui being based on

oimmon or compatible values diat will shape attitudes,

diecommondelciminationtoface up to challenges, the mor^l strength to respond to themand the mjnagem^rtt of change We cifinot want the emetgh^^ ^bb^l society
unless It Is Eo-unded on \hc pouiblllty of llvltkg together widi the aciLcptancc d£differences and plunlbm.

A Large proportion of traditional elhks are

stillmeaningful toda^, though

may take different forms because of changes in the conditions of
icfacncc Vinually viajv/bac. present-day wdcty Is moic open ^ndtheyricher, or at lea^t^^picestoa shared well being

irisjlso better Informed. For

eiamp^. the Idea ol solidarity is changing f^om a concept limited to die^inlly tribe to a much broader concept, while Hi strictly tribal connotation

may be openly dhcredLicd,
To ihj^ end, vilucs may be defined and hopefully agreed upon if ihcy are
expressed In a way idat Is bcner adapted to the present situation. Among
permanent values we would suggest freedom, human rights andrespon&ibiliun, family life, equal rights for men and women, compassion tor
tile aged and die disabled, tolerance, respea toe life and peace, and the seaich

for truthr

Auteursrechtelijk bescherind materiaal

Missing page152 • TbeFtraGiebtURrpolutumthe

cdm of»bdirnyH

ib[ cIk
drmeiuion of ihf probltms posrd id
dlcoted

by

the

Fict

humanity rod3vrcqulTC(-C^v>pfraEionb^twe^n human bein^ as a con^
dlticn for tbdr suivivaL

Anfweiliica] vIstoD such 35 this svillneccsuiJTy have rcpcTCUSislons on ihr
national Irvf I.

In OJncluskin, the speed of evoIuOon and at current duriRn leads us toconstdct rhar the rjme lector h3£ tn ednlcal value in loelf. Ever; minuic \oivevery dttisLcifi dcbycd mcim more dcidii from iorvaTton and malnu^ridon,

meam a fuithcr slide towards irreversible damage caused b^ polluaon
phenomena in the environment. No one will evei know foz suic the humanai^ Ein^ridal cost tA lost dme-

OncediU has been recognized, theethksof solidarity and of tjme leads toan ethics of scOon, where i:a[h cin?en must feci concerned and mrffiS^
hjnuelF lor acUon. The Isolated Individual alvbrayi feels helplen amidst ibe
Ininnenslty of die battle inwhkh he Is surprised to find himself. This should

induce Individuals 10 associate with others, jnd to Bnd logetherihe lorce andthe effectiveness which ihey -cannot musler alone. Collective ethics dependon the ethical behaviour d. ea^ individual m die group and It is obvious that
Invetiely, the Individual's adherence CD a code of ethical behavlotrr canbeencouraged. Invited and aiou&ed by the odlective appioach.

Hffw mn d^ffrrmi FroiJxlufnai and mo4im, colkcrtvf and individual vniui sy^t^ems&nxist both in a sodrtv and at shf individual ievei}

The emergence of certain untveisaJ values such as human Ei^ts or lespeci
for nature does not mean the end of uiccstial values even thou^ they may
con [ladia «<:h oihei Inaddicon, individual values may aiumes conflict witfi
collective vaJucs, or one value mjy conflici with another A classic example of.

tht^ conflict Is the sale of arms, which is a source of profit fac anattonarnda

source of employment For numeraus men and women, yet isLn opposiOon
to the same nation's dmre fcir peace.

The hain'i^nTlouftc existence Q^v^rydiffacnt values tsnodiJngncWpbutK
has been seriously undet mined by the rise in fundamenTaium. It Is rather there IdOre Importance attached to the values that change accof ding to the age ofthe ideology or teligion it\ sway, Aj eich person Is biologically and sodoculiurally

uolqiie,die

emc^lfshould be on the individual aspect.

—

ve often the outcome of a choice made or worse.
Imposed— by those holding; the reliu of pon/ein who warn at all costs to"CoJkctlvc' values

Auteursrechteli|k beschermd materiaalMeapot^mj and Valtus •\S3lmpo^t iheir values on tlv Fot by showmg conEcmpi forothcis' valua, by

evm^CEcmptingEomppmsthfm. 'Collfctivr' values cm only be ukcn inio
coriMdcraDon when ihrre r^iisis iruf trrcdom dnd d hlgb level uF culiuril

developmentElite ctrclcs 3EC

ohftn icconckkd easily ixi changing values despite thejurfatccono-ovctsy. The general public is iim involved, oril)' manipulated, in

dcb^ieiof ihls t^. The gulf between elite thtnkmg and popular thinking js

enormous. It Is here that wr find dtstortionsarKllensLonj that are difhcult oreven impossible \d resolve.

The jnrcrcsting and important point here is that di^ercni value ^yjiem^ do
In fare(onTlnuf to»

etlst,

fven though theiru eilsienreI&somminncoloured by opposlnon and rnlstrust. Indeed, it Is not so much a question of
the Co ejilstence of conindictory value -systems as of the same values beii^

interpreted jn different terms.

When allIs

said and done, the factor thatmakessuchco cjiisteEice possible, as abo the plutalliy of InicrpEeiatkons, IS thecapacity br dt^loguc jnd communication.

To conclude this brief survey, we must stress two phenomena that aregoing \Tt opposite ways. There Is Indeed a weakentng of rhe moral sense of
Individuals, who fed cheated noc only because the ethical structure that used

to serve as their reference

and

to

whld^ they wlllhigly submitted has

collapscdp but dUo bcciuK the ihicais po$cd by the contcmpotaiy woild
JlCuaiion have frightened them into a chilly self- withdrawal Sunultancously,

there is a prOigtcsslve collective awareness of the great problems of the world,
old and new. which is encouraging research on solutions. The spiritual andethicaldimension is no longer an obiea of scom oi Indlfieicnce:

perceived as a necessity that should lead ro a new humanism.

May Il» divine ^rlT prcnct us a(l; may hc work Eog^Thtr with grpat
energy; may our sludy be Fruitful jnd itioroLigh; may [here be no hau-ed

between us.

Ji

is

—

—

11, Learning our Way into a New Era

We shall make no artempf \o summarizef^itr

conrluskms: Indeed the wrj

raturc of ihc ptoblcnuElquc preclude such a ^wsiHlty. Imtad we shallmake some observations md ^uggeifkms iS to how to blaze a Qall Into theunkriown landscape of dK fucute (hrough learning, which is a Jcadmg tutiucof the resolutique. BcEoie doing u. how^vtr. we shall ce staie a Fewguidil^
piliKlpks [h3[ arc scattered throughout the book;'— need foe the mvolvemert jnd parucip^non of ev^iyone

in seeking awijthrough die InceicwlEitng complex of corucmpor^ry problems;— recogniOon

that theposslblllQeso( posftive change

resideInthemoQvaiioai ^kJ valuer ihac detcrmiiK nu behavhour^— undetstandJngdiat^bfhavkjurofnanoniandsqctetleflrenecisthatofits
Individual Qtuew and mcmbcis;— XEcgtatKC

oF t^ postulate that drarnatlc solutloos are unlikely to cotnc

from Ihe leaden of govenimenls, bul that [housands <?[ small, wise

dedsxnu. reilecnng the new realizationoEmillioni of ordinary people arenecessary for sccmldg eIw iucvival ol society;—practice of die pttnclpic that [^vllege, whether lt>dlvldu>l or nujcnal.

must alwjy^ be complemenled by a correspondLng respotisiblllty.
Assbtedintbelntroductfon, theidejsand proposals Eoc action in tKrs^iaok
areotteredasabasLsfor learning our way Into the future. It IS HOC necessaryin^ked A would be Imposskble to expect

thai there should be complete

agieemeni with ill the dioughcs wc have cxpiessed wjth regard to the world

Auteursrechleiyk beschermd maleriaal

Ltarttii^ ffur Way mOf a Notf I^raIn rfvolulion, of• 155

on ih? r^lativF Importance wr hjvc given lo 6k various

problems. The mGterljJ preicnled here should nlher be regarded as metier
EoL 'widc^prcjd di^cuuion and dcb^K;

K ii lijccodcd to sp^rk oK ^vdric^yoE

fx^mlndDoiK ind reassessments on Lbe ptn cf those responsible for the

mdmgement of sodcty n ilJ levels. We ilso hope thdt the znjny, whose
conQCt& with governance ar-e quite lemoie but wbcise future b deeply
Involved In the forthcoming changes, wiil begm ro ur>dcrstand ntiorcdeiily\hesignlfkjnce

of

many

of thelopm present^

here,

such

the

as

InLerdepeiKJerKe oFib? lutions and the [nteraction of the problems. The Qme
has come to show how every Individual is more or less dlreoly concerned

wtdi the problems of the world atid the rhinge* that are brewing, even if heot she can moie easily perceive the sytrtptoms than their causes. Even now.

few remain unCDUched^ onr hjs rally lo mention the problems of CO- existencewith Immigrants of different ethnic

origins,

the effecton children andidolescents of certain television programmes, die Intemationallntton of
lutaifujbila or thr inif rnauunal ^prud of anrnimcr produm to dioujc ivatletyd lactioas.

To leam oui way through this period oF transition and to identify surepolntsof reference, we have to modify -our re^^oiiing, OUT mental Images, ourbehaviour and understand die realities on wbch we base our judgements sothalwecancopewlchthl^ woe [dmutancn, with IQ array- of global issues suchas the environment,

food security, developmenlof the poor countries, thealscs of govctnance. and all the others we have inempied to describe.

The complex and uncertain siruatjr^ In the future will faru decision
makers at all levels, especially the politicians, to search for new approaches
andtoadopt unconventional

attitudes.

But

It

will

not bepossibleto

imp-lement chelr decisions, no matter bow brave and pertinent they axe,
unless they succeed In obtaining wide public support.

However, generalraliiance to- change ind fear of the unknown connituie an unfavourable

environment

for str-ong

and unconventional

actionon anyIssue.

Thed)'namlcs of public opinton will not be able to operate usefully, unlessjiidividujls

have access to lnformailc?:L about che nifure of present global

phenomena jnd acquire through their understanding oE them the conviction[hat the vciy survival of the huminracc^ IS dtstdkcUtsalwobvious, however,that the eloquence of the facts alone willbeiraufficlent toconvince

individuals that these phciwmena are of immediate concern to them. To mostpeople they will seem distant, theoretical and too vast In con^parlson with the

problems of everyday life, their family, andtheir professional, financial,health, and day-to-day survival problems. The imge of difficulties may wellelicit areaction of withdrawal, a refusal to understand, or anxletv at theAuteursrechteli|k beschermd inateriaal

156 • The Firff GMai Bjvoiitimt
thought of hjvlT>g TO gnpplE dnpttr hclplnmc&s jcid IsobOon, wlfh } set of

hca ihn uc mind bogglrng m d^cii vailciy and compicxity.
Such <3oubu irid (^cling^ of alicnaOon w||] have n> be iduiow^ledged anddeliberately addrcucd so that ibcy

on be d1$pellcd bf sharing Itrn. and i^lllarlty with the bcc^ gE^duaUy achieved ihraugh di^u^ston with others.

The situation mu^t be ^^en in loal and personal tfrms. This i^ one ioson fot
the need for a new, revitalized democracyH organized on a more p^Eilapitivc
basiE. stimulated by the comprehension of global concerns.

The need, then is lo think gbbaTivdOd act locdJly'. The CI uboFRomehx,
since Ita establishment, realized [he ncHJorsuch an apf*Mch and there arc amu^diudc of w)ys rn lA'hich j[ couLd t>e ^icvcd^ wc oitci a fcwcjumpJra In
the following pages.

Ciaiml-IjiiallnterailKui

On die Initiative of Mauiice Strong' and die Club of ELome. a meeting was
hcldlnlWfl in Denver, widi some forty Colorado decision makers to discius
the Following question: in whdt way? do the great world problems afTett theeconomic and toclal life of the stare of Colorado and in what way car. ^epolidcjhnd economi cleider^ of ihe sate cieicisc an influence on dlosegreal
probiemsf During the work jnd discussions of the meeting, the necessity for
joinT action becan^ more andmote evidfni in a number of area, e^tccially

onenvjiounaentalmcies. treverymhabitanl in Colorado made energy savingaswell as fighting agarnsi waste his or her daily duty, their actions would

collfcduely Improvr the utuaOon of Colorado, jnd therefoie of ihf ilnired
Suie^, and of the world. It the individual ts alone, the result wril be merely

lymbolic.

Ifanumber of individuals toin to act In the direction of betrer

envlronmencal protecdon and if their influence fn the community strengthens
their fight, then the result will

be significant. The Denvet meeting was

foilowed by an open foium In which the ideas and condusioni of the small,
restrtcied zrkceting were shared with a large dudrence of the general pub]ic.

Similar meedngs are being pbnned mltully

m ;apjn ^nd In other countrleSn.

and simllai approaches ate being taken by other bodies and sometimes evenby govcmmcniSr
In a diffet-cntaKi, that of development, we undeiswrcd^ the idc of lc»calmjiL^iLvri In the development ptoce^s, often taken

by non governmentalorganizations, groups ofvlUagcrs. and the like, in solving piablems relating to

1.

Secreor^-Cenenl of ihcUiuicd HiDonConlerciKf on EnvVDfimeniand Devdopmcnir

2.

Sre ChjptQ 7, DcveiopmcnE Jitd UndcEde^LcipinerH-

member of the club ol Rome

Copy^i9hted materialIr^rttinjf our

Way into a Nm' Em • J57

hmilng, health and hygiene, cducaiicm, ^nd so on. Such aolvidcs arc also
spic-ading in ihe bLg citv slums and these ^rc contiibuimg to inodifvmg theconcepiujl basis jnd the global vision of developmen[ pqli^tC^, (h^( d'C ihc

rcncctionor thcmuluplicilyof ^cogi^phLC.cijItunl jnd humjn SLtudtions tot

which ihey have piovidcd the realliv of experience rn the field.

The Clubd Rome, in diweminating ik vie*< ifvA ehcouraging the

emergence of global ihmking in local action has encouraged ihe cceauon ai
National Associations for the Club of FLome. These now exist in about ihitty
couEltiiesin the live continents. The Asocial lOEks are governed by a comm-m
charter, some of [he jrtitltt of which insist on the na[urc of the incecaction

between chc local and global leveh:
Tach Asscciitian ihaH apptoach the global problems in term^ of themuniry'iownculturalvaluesand thus conirtbuw

lo

the general

understanding of the human condition on the pknet.
Ii

^hall

have the dLi[yiqduscminate

locally

to decision mahen,

academics, industrial circles and the public at large, the reports, findings

andatccudesof theClub. It shall contribute expen^rce. creative ideas
and proposals towards the undcisunding of the global problems to theClub.

The National Associations

foi

the Club ofRome have, therefore, themission of eitablishmg communication between the national rcahties and the

problcmatique as seen nationally on the one h^nd and the global thinliing of[heclub on the other, and aaing

asrclaviforthe circulation ^nddissemination ofCtub thinking In each eountiy Coing ficim global to local andfrom local [o global requires a radical transformation in modes of [hinkrng andleasonmg which wlII become essential henceforth.

It

Is

a

new intellectual

eserdse whkh we shall have to extend and integrate.
Locai-lndivuituU taHnwliun

The picture would be incomplete :l we did thJt examine the possiblliue^ ofaction of rhc individual hucnjnbcmgiHvhoisat chccenci^ of the entire edi free,Inextrcmeca&es. such as the threat of wai or natural disastcis, individuals jre
imtnediaiely transformed

inw ciiiTen?. aware of their responsibilities andready for cohesive action. Other

less spectacular

bur likewise significant

exaTTiplcsbcarwimess to the fact that individuals are not inert and indifferent

inrhetaceof imminent dangers, when [here IS an environmental rhreat close

when a situation arises where people's imerests are at srake andgyo5i Jn^idnca of explojEaiion dre revealed, we find that ininauvn are [aken mat handr or

Copy^i9hted material158 • The Fmr G£iM Btpottttiat
mostdlucr^ Flckb by Indlviduab, md that small groups arc pt^arcd la fighicauses thai affcci ihcm dIrcciLy or Indirectly, and by whicb they ictl

forTo mention bui a few examples, dmspon oi telephone uicn
orp nmuons, or In a different category. NCOS thj[ care for disabled children,
Id people 01 bettered ^ives, KGO& engaged mihc TLglhl against A[D$anda
host of other diseases or in the snuggle rorhaman rights, ecological groups,

pciec groups ^nd i multitude oF other devfLoprncntal NGOs sitch as wc havepresented here. Neither must we target the initiatives lh manyoountrtcs by
the jobless Co createbii&ine$s, as

fmplovment for thcmwlv^s o: to set up thdr own

wfW as the NCOs (iu[ i^ere founded loas&tH &mah bu^lnesse^ i nd

to provide them widi technical assistance^

Individualcommitment

to actuni

jstheiefoic possible

and alreadywidespread, which demorutrdtcs thit d link cai^ be established between thehuman being and local or naiional acdon, which kn some cases, flourishes,
cxicixJs and become? inicrnationaL

Tht rrmerflrfiGc of the irsfbrmal lecTOf

Tb? success of gtassoofiNCO in idatlves no longer oceds to be demonsiiated.
Very oft en, the$e movements sie sparked olFbv Individual men and women.
Examples ifirougfxiiiit the woild are many, in the indian state of Utiar
Pradesh, the local people have rallied ajound 3

man calTed Sunderlal

Bahuguna to stop the construction of a USi 1.7 billion dam, which would havesubmerged then villjgf & and sezjously Increased the danger of av^lanche^ inthe region. Several reports that questioned the technical feasitrthty of thepio>cclandinelevcn-dayfas[ by Bihuguna led tJie government to backdown

on

its

plans.

In

Kenya a woman. Wacigati Maaihaipresident of the grassroots Green Belt Movement and— <hc founder andmem be[ of the Club ofRome— has Led a sua: c£sful battle to sto-pthfEonsnu^DonoN^iKty [WO floor
office building in a popular Naliobi public park, [n Mexico City, wbeieihc

problem of pollution ha? gone far beyond bonWe limits, Mjtcos Chanfiodrlguez m.obillzed Ills neigh bourhoc-d [D form a grassroots group to reduce

thcopcratLomofacemcnt factory that was pouring cement paftidci into theair.
it

In the process, the group realized that to arouse the ruling party's Interest,h>d to appeal to the leh-wlng opposition^ and thus make the democritk:

system woik.

The enormous proliferation of KCOs can be 5«n In every sector of naOonaland in[enaiional activity; ^ome are xtricdy professional, others represent
special interests; tfiey may be single issue group, oi may deal with general
concerns; they may have a religious ocienlation. or be based or a particular

Copyrighted material

Missing page160 • The Fmt GJiM RtPotiUKm

moa of ihc largoc scale through muldplf jctions on anidde even on

huaU scale.
htnovati'm ti lan^ua^. an^yxu ami Appvadi
In 60 many elcmcnn of thks gbbal icvoiuOon

wc lack knoivlcdgc and dicce.

\inoguaranire that more research will ludlogrutfr certainty, 0[[ha[ll will
yield IQ results Jn

dm e for iheinio influence importdiitdmstons. Further, weknowalnaboui&omccJcmcnB. bmwcuniiL:mdndvciylia]r. Wf luvcto
learn, ihcrefoie, to an In spite of continuing uncertaJncy, Politics has always
been the ui of making decisions under condllJons of uncertainty. The
difference today is that the uncertainty is much more and is compounded uirlth
tapld change This abldknguncertamtydcm^Etd^addptjclon of our institutions

and approaches m order to achieve grcaw:i ilcxibiliiy and a gicac capacity foraction as we train our sights on the moving targets of hisrory.

A cential challertge in this connectionis

how to reconcile d^ language andconcepts of economics that dominate the world today with environmental
language and conceptSr Two approaches are possible: environmental aspects
can be jddcd to conventional economic analysis, or economic Approaches canbe integrated withm a broader ecological view. Great care and precise
thinking are needed in this area, in which distlnalon must be made between
different

types

of

economics:

macrwconofnia, microecorvimlci. dnd

environmental or ecological economics. We must find ways of integrating
envirtRimcntal aspects more effectively with dK established and powerfulapproaches of both macro-anxJ miaoeconomicSr

The role of the market and its relatson to the role of the govcinment Ij ofvital imparlance in seeking to resolve and manage the environmental
problems. No solutions based exclusively on the market emst m the realworld.

All

Westerncountries,

for example,

have devclcipcd mixed

which governments provide a ftamewotk of

economics

inIncentives,support and guidelines to the private sector

regulations.
It

has

been

acknowledged that the market approach alone cinnot h^die probLi^ms ofcommon property resources or issues of long-term common interest- Thegovernment must pcovide the boundary condltlona tn the publk interest.

The problems we face are not only intellectual and analytical; leal interests
and the structure of power are always at stake. In the real world, connadlctoryjntrTcrrs arc inevlaWy optnctng. Ln establijhmg a notmaOve approach,oclLniCf: ariangements for action have to be e^ijbli^hed between powergroups and indeed between lutions, which will continue to have distentinterests, values, norms and cultural iridirlons.

Auteu^srec^ltelijk beschermd maleriaal

In 1972. the Glut) of

Rome published The Limits to Grffwit). a book

Ihal aroused a wonowiOe conlroversy by highlighling the clangers

possd by the relentless pursuit o^ material gro^Th by the West. In

The First Globali^6votulion.t«o members oHhe Council oi\.heC\ub
ot Rome describe how material growth and over-consumption hai/enow become a global problem. Environm^tal pollution, runaway
population growth, food and energy shortages, and geopolitical

upheavaJs make the future prospects oE the world sesm very bleak.

Whal we are witnessing today is the emergence ot the postindustrraf society, and the tumultous changes around us are
elements of this transitional phase Poised on the Dnnl< ola social
revolutic^n ushered in by modern inrormetion technology, the world
has two choices:to continue pursuing material goals and selfish aims, and thereby

cause the stow but sure decline of all worid Byslems:« to un»te and work towards building an improved Me tor future
generations.

This book offers an overall parspediva ot tha complex andinteractive global problems, and dlscus^e^ means oi solving themcompreriensivelVr

Cover design' Monica Gandhi

Foi sale in India, Neosl, SMuian, trm

Maldive Islands, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only.

Orient Longman
KirJG a SCHNEIDER THE FIRST GLOBAL REVOLUTION

OLBN0001ieCl32X",

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

162 • The First CtoM Revahttiait

Thcwholcofthlsbooi^Ls jcalf for world solldarttr. Lfvlng is we do during ibc
onset ol ihc fjisi gbbil revolution or i small piarti beset wuh conflicts which

wc Kcm beU'bcm on destroying, in jn ideological and poliQcaJ vdcuiun,
bctdwldi problems -of globdLdtmemions svhlch the bdlngnatton-sOCeurc
unable to solve, widi Immense po&sjbidtLcs foi the impiovemeiit oi thehunun condlrion, Tlch ia knowledge but pooi fa wisdom, we soich for the
keys to survival and ^ustain^bilUy.

The only hope seems to lie In combtoed action laken In the light of 2
cofupletc understanding of the Impending pctllj and the commtsukcp of
wlf-imerest of jil men ind women. We hiw stressed the tmportancf ofIndividual bchavloui and values which constitute die ceJs of the body ofsQci-eTy, derrtmi^nrng

iti

funcuoning and values, A fundamet^l upsurge of

wisdom can probably only come through rhf inner development of the
Irtdlvldual. The great rejjgioni in their purest aspirations have attempted tomake ihH possible over die aga, with few outward signs of success.

Wc cannot, thdeforc, expect miracles and have to comtrucl a posiDon ofsubiliEv.

Thij can only be

based

o-n

die i^orldwide cultivation of an

enUghtened tniere&c In (he survival of the race and of human sodeQes. This, inturn, can only be nude posi Ible by the uni vei^a] luidersQodmg ofrhe human

predlcamem, Its dangers and its promises.

hlarklnd may hate to chacw bietwwn ihe VittJi «xtr?rn« ali^mailves o^^oininlnliiBBenocldPor learning to live hencttontiu a single bmily.

Arnold Toynbee

For the creillon of rhU ulldaTity, out ttology and our egoJsm can be

powerful

jlHes.

For most people. cbeJi egoismIs

noE confined to theindividual lifespan, biic cxrcrbd^ ro thai of theli childteii and grandchildren
viithwhose being they idenCiiy. It sfiould be possible therefore to sdlVtf,

selfishly

If

you will, 10 cceace circumstances whrch w[\\ make possible a

digrLfiedandtnilyhuman existence for future generations Such in effort will
ennil many macetla] sacrifices on the part of the prevent gcnejaOon, but itshould j[so bring abounding benefit; in the qualitatrve aspects oflife- If we areto suaccd Id esiablLshing wocld solid^my as the suprcoic ethic toi suivlViJp

the fitsc step Is in atoustng im<lers'j[Kling^

Copy^i9hted material

Missing pagefilDLtOCRAPHY
A.[ ES EC

lAssociaUon

InKmaHonak

dcs

Eludlants

en

SctaK«

CmEiomiquef et ComnKTclalfs) Kffarln]nltniaUiini!Cieit^j{^. ¥,thi. AtESEC-

Canany. 1^1.
Boikin. [.'V Elmandira. M^ and Mslkiza. M.'V Ni UnDtel^nung. i^rgarxm

WTO-

Piess. Oxford.

Brown, Ifslfr R, StfA rf Ctoi|c, Pnrgtr Publishers, New York, 1070.
Cdruxis, EUchcl, Sinir Sprxflp Hamllujn. LofKton. \96i.
Chcsiutt. Jon Claude, Tim M-jndt, Ecoriomlca,

Dogin, Klatiel dnd K^aidj John D.

Paris- 19S7.

T^ Mftnpabi Em: A W«rU >f QmirCJUa,

Sigc. Newbury Pwk ICA). I5a&.
Forrester, jiy

W/' linfumill Diiumia, MIT Press, Cambridge, (MA), 1Q6L

Forrester. |ayW,

lli*flnD^hmI^^ MIT Presi. Cambrldptf (MA),lOrt.

Cabor, Dennis, et jI, Bfifond lt\r Agf sf Wslf, Pergarnon Press. Oxford. WS.'
Glesbert, Fianz Olivier, it PFfuiif«J, Siiull, Puis, IMO.
lEUlitui francats dcs relations Internationales.
If S|tl£w Etfiimiifiuf I ki

RAMSES [^sppt\!\ Annuel fAaniiia ur

Slnil^}, ed. by Thkeiry de MantbrlilH Dunodn P3t\i.

1090.

King, Ak«ndci"\ TAr SUtr *f [fe PiflwJ. Pcigamon Prc», Oxford,

Ml,

Lesourne, |Kques", la S|dfliu Am DflUn, IXmod, Pitis. 1975.

Meadows, Dot>clld H., Mc^ows, Dennis L.**, Rinders, |orgcn |r, Behreils.
William W. Ill, Ttu Umiti it CrauUi, Universe Books, New York, 1P7?.'
Petxrei, Aurelio",

Tlv Clioni AlvoJ, MdcMllldn, New York, 1Q79.

Pesrel, Eduard", Bnr'xc^rlvUiiulibGTwffi. Universe Books,

Schatf.

New York. 19W

Adam" and E-ricdrichs. Cuniher. MicntkajWii onl Stckl^. Pergamon

Press, Oxford. IMJ.'

Schneider, Bf rtrand", TJif BanfiwI RmjfuNdir. IT Publication, Londoi, IQSS.^

SchunucberrE.F,,Sni^hBrduiJ/irr F^imcmjnan/raipJrMd'Jerd, Blond ai^Brlggs,

London. W7*; Harper Collins, New York. 197J.
United Nations industilal Development Organisatbon/lnsiltuie of Ertetgy,
Rcpnl in WflfCfwp on Bumflw TfifnrflJ Pmc^Bf PrtTHtt^ Eur, Ing, Bijan LockCy

Cadogan Consultants, London. IP^r
University

of

Tokyo

GkibalEnviron nvntal

Study

Ljboraiotf

andMas^jchiu&ets InsDlulcofTcchnaTopyCcmcrfoi-T-ncrgy Policy Research.

^6]k^MtiA^\0(^\n2h I9W, Wj^fijrijWii, D.C)- Wood, Divld 0„ andKaya, Yokhl, ^eds.). M.I.T., Cambridge, IWI.

World Commission cm Environment and Development, Th BnrFidJknit Rfpriri,

OHrCmmwN Fulurf, 0>![wd UnlveRdty Press. Lortdon, M7.
'Tjfvi i4 rii aitf< (f !tMt

"MrmJyr if [if Clufr ti Spiv

Aufeursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal

IndexAcrpmrftTiOH of Laus. set

devf fopmart of.

wTrrromm

PoiluUon
Acddili bjfis \ai. IdlET-

Adi Slunlurjchjryar 54

untuEhorisffi uln of. ll

nbta

V lb Defence eipendicure*grlcul(uri^ dcvcTDpTKnf In.

»

flifJ

Tatun^iTf

Arms CKpoii. glo^l uplfkante of.

dcbf Xrvlcing burden o(. JOjution Qibn in, h

10.00

Arms industEv,

nrvolutions in, iO

Aged, arc for tktc. lU

kn developing counmes.

Itand for foimol, ID
jgricuiiuFj] devfbpfrrml. 119

WiBource consLimpUOT

incicase In Food producticpn.
^hoFthll in Icod^JiFU

10,

M

nj

niggndons lor irmi Ecductnn, VlffSO

use of fheriKj] ffcfjtoen, H»jifE iviilibtlit^.

w

DtMtmjueiiB

jnd toiJ CDaidluoiH. -U
pffffct of droiLghrs.

proble-ms of diurnumen,

A W^ff/Cia-ICffia 104^. 40-1,

14 tht Cicci] Rrvokuon

AIDS (Acquiied Immuflv dctxioicj'
Syndromv), ^1
AIuIj. oil ipill bi, n
AlgcTlan rcvdudot^ In, BO'ATTKTlcan dicim', ?nd of. 69

AmiK^y InLciEutKiiul, 66,

Sahucuna, Swdsl^. l^B

Anccuiji vjlufi, lu Viluo

Senm,?

ArgendiUr ktukbcfdum c^, 20

Seigei. Galon.

Armjmena

Shopal. pc^Eicidc kj)i \n. J}^

ipd pollncaJ powci. 2*

BidflHHiJfi.

K
M

people ol.lOJff

Copy^i9hted material,

L66 t/jH^
Cill«r TTunigFinFm oi, IQ

Bloo. iradmg and Kidunrul,

U

imp]]n.tiijns d(, II

Civil economy, conver^on lo.

Bouwanj, dcvclopmcni oi. 6S

C limine change

flrjdv Pljrt. thf

Club of fUnx,

W fl^iiIhI, 4,

K7

ind drvetaping co^ntr^o^ M

and f^rr proiect.viii

jipdn^s conulbijuan co, IQ

and ceductjon tn armA; appnl
Ibi,Mtf; declaraDoci i loss kon.

and promdon of human r^htt, Ti*»;Fir«BcportiWJ)of,7-(:W

gbtui local IrKcwaan, rok In, 1^ H

Indctucdncii of,

Lnduslrijl dcvf loprrifnl of.

Vi.

4S

local knluath'et Bi rural areu, lOT IE

mcciing in Hjnovei
pjrrKlpjimn in woild tcoEwmy,

M

U^)- ^*'

mrrting LH Tjojnd^ ilQM|.l7role in dcvclopmcnl

rtduOkm in dtbt bunltn of, 56
Btilain, riKibiliudon dunngWorld Wjr II. 70.

|56

hAc in the moluuqur, W'7
THr ?Jiiiiimci\\ oi Mtfildnd,

^

Coal

Bcown, ElJErijan. bi

polluTlon cauxd by. 2^-6

Bcunddand Rfporf. dVr i*roervs of. a
Cokl war. dxendoftbd9H'0. S^W

Biukuia FuD. iO^

CotkcDve ethKs

imporurKC of. 152
udciri AppToacbs <Or 151-7
CollnDve nluD v mdii-rdual
vjIuq, 1^1«JColli mbja,

plan lot ccologKil jobiliuitonj 9S

C/MAKA. Ddn Itaixii. 71

CcmrniinKWon and dkaloguCr 1^3

OnxU. II

Coirkmunlnn, cdlapKof. I. 60

Chad. 15

Compcntion cpcn.

CAoBflv". failure or dv. 60

Change, temance \a. Ulli

ChcTm^yl. rtutlcar accidcni, JL M
CFC'i rflecl on ozone Ijvct. ?H 5

3idvjnugri and limltiADoru, lO-Ll

Conferences piuliEeution of, A5'A

CcpMumer ucietr, fwuK d, M
Contemporary problems

ChlJe
global LJlsparilis. tl

dcmaiJty :otMed in, /gjobal n^miif of,miliUFv coup [\9n). JM

irudeqiuir inponir to, 117 ii

poiluve changes in. Ifi

Czechoslovakia

China

deiThicrac]r cHablnhcd in. 7

dmrmamcTir \n, Qt
large roervei of coal in,pi^Hibt will crushed

r

M

M

Sovlei occupalion of- 7

wididrjwalof SDvlrEDDOpt. 00

Ervoluaan in, K)$horug^ ol contumn goad&. 41 :Chjpka movpmprl, ihcr I^B
Churrhkll, SliWJruion, r?

Copyrighted material-

Ifvkx • 167

Danzh, AhdUt ]U

pioblcTiu rdaied to. 10. *0 f!

Debt

lewurccj Er«d istd dicu itiC, W, *,aitj dcvclopiiig cDuntim, Sa

B

iiiflBmKRi& for, S^l B

rclKf meiMra, ]1Q l\

Dbcord. ngm of, '9

US deb<3. M

DupirlD«, globil, ti

cHccts d, 36. VJ-i

[togan,ifae [Kfd (o lull, iff Coiiunbu

DEOUghl^lOM), »Yi Indumijl wjstn

dcGjulLcChski. 12
DcmooipliK thwfla {M ihr
Monh) 20 1.411.

iiid SJOidi. \S>..

UK

Dtiigaidr

eOKDof, IG-lrllrniiutiDn of. II

Drmocracy
ChuichilJ) cL>Trimciii dbouir T3mcngths jEid limiQuaru of

M

,

^1

cmf rgcnce of, W
moEuy Jjjndcung ict. II
Dukt of Edinburgh, Prince Pluiip, x

dhc pfcfcrrcd idcolij^, 65

Dcvtlopinj touniTi«

and drbr. ^6 ft
binh jnd dcarfi corrtrol m, 65*d^v^lopmcni and povcnjj 5J-*

KonnriT of,^H

cncigr prospcctj, 9T fF

pamcipnioo in rhc woild ceo

Eaith. Tk,
research on IQ rulunt lynora, IM*?

Ddvkipmmi

Ealem Europe. P

ind povfily. ^ 9p IDL'2

MnvttBQfl 10 i nuii^ Konomj of, K) tl.

mub. BO, 101 fl

COIF

nml Ebi new mu^ta in. icn I!

coJhpKof CnriTTiJEiiiT nrgintn. L.b^

rcvlsm of urxcgbn in devek<pingproblcnuof nononikd-aiigr, ?9,6l

counnlcs. 10? i

shiXQge ol comumer goodi LnrQl-2[ok oJ ihc Club of Rome, Jll fF
roie of govrrnnicncs and Inter

luOocul IntdniOcm,

IDO (fKicncc ji>d tcchnolofy for. LHl
p miderdf vciopmoM, 101 fF

Deiwfopmeni ^licics.

Mn>sjinabk(^ opexnK (^rowih,

EionDmn change, lO ff. 6* '0
Ecc^iomK polK}'. Licnimoiv oE^ 4
Ecaivim^devcbpDig CDunDlei, of.fd ff

CHtcm Europe. d(, 6S
Europejn Communiry, of, 55-6
miliidiv and civil, BQ

Imikqiucleiof. 102 FF

SovLFl Union, oj. 6^ ff

DlQcrtnr vaLtKS. cocnAcntc of, 1^^ Si

USA. of. Vff

Dminumcnt

world, intern jcionji rTrlsman^ement

inirrcdijic f fE«ia ol, 9?
In USSR jnd Chuu, Ql

EgoUm, giowih oE, 147 ff

ncgotaUom,

Elntronkt, tmpxtof. V-t

<>•

10

Auteursrec Intel i|k beschermd materiaal

J

16S •l«dai
Ehot. T5., D7

ElKc ' populu ThlHlglH. 151

FrrnllKii. usrof, >« 40

Empb)Tncni, pfohknB of- (^ ffFli^ globiL e£vq|i»op. die.

jjrm of. 1*

EwTgy
ikemitiiT uuica of, ^7, n,»d die human jiubcsc, SI 2

UCduntuig. OS Q

dw chill* nfi? flf, lU

COnscrvaHon mcjsiirci, ?1 ff
frcwn nuckear tldon.

Edwird, vi

Food Sccuriiy, w Clotjl foodWfrom niiclfai fmion. V&fcuriEy

jn human UanucDccu, 9Jl

pioblcmi d1 ivj^bbll^.

ETiTgfijId.

W

Foi«ls, dftuuction of.
ur [kfornuuon. abi ?oliuCHJnlordtrof JucI jncuialaicji, JA

Foncsln, jif' vUl^S

juggnuons for conicrvaODn, CQlf

Rincflcr'i. Fkra Lavv, ao

FdssH fLifk

tomervaOon of, IT

ErvJronrncnl

palljOon of. 7) B, 9^iiggcsoons fix pccucoKm d, 99 101

Envjronmcnul «0[ioni Its. 100
Equal rlgha,mFoundation lor liiEcrnauoiLdl Trying
lFtT),*7

Funcc. TTobilJzaiioa d. TO

Fundjmenulum

iiHBBty For. 15 <pcimjncTil V Currsil. ISO
Ethiopia, politiul

polluOon caio^ by bumLng of, JS

duf^ m. 6^

ducordanc ugiu of, 79
rlKQi, 15? SI
FtwI. vardiy ol, ?6

Euiopcand dluiiTumdiE, QQ
Eunonjlism oJ dhnk mlnorlbei,
IS LD

turopean ComiminiTy
ooDiplcda) of ncmonuc uiui/- UC^nomy o(. 5i-&
cAcci oJ polmcjl cKangfi on, ^GABOff. DEV4HE, Jt- 14&

fbrmjDon oE, 5^

CandkU.K (M^hjinijl. 71

leducuon m COr crraisuni, 06 i\

Europcm Moncuiy Untm, SS 6

Genetic cnginccnng, il

Grrnuny£«l and West rctJi^KaUoT. I. \1.

modcrniuuon dI Ejsi Ccnn.~n)i, 2Q
rpdiicdon of BilOih tioop» In. 00

Ginben, Frjnr Ohicr. 4

Gknm, IS
Global food iccuriEy.

U ff

GlotHJ loul mlerKOon. Iff Club of

FuLKLAEJa Wai, Tnf IQ,

Family Ilk. 71. ]^Favclas.

pmpk of ihc. 101 H*

Glob J prablenu
I

nwlFonmental pollution. 11 ff

Copyrighted material'/Mbr • 169
gtrvetnance. 114 H

KAVa, Vaoav, ?, 71

soOay. dgn of ducord tn. '4

Hcid* of Scjie and Min*flcf».

Hong Kong, dcvclopmeni i^r 19- *^

aaa

of,

HiieiliijcdjccJlJ, pre Colofntriar]

25-6

ImpltaiUni of, K H
pfcvcnDvc mcsiunH *6
Cotbocbcv. MtfchiU. 01

Gdvcnuna. 114 )0
con^iliy of faclora rdacing id, 74.

teachli«. 1»

Humjn acuvny, gmwdi of. fl ff
Humjn rrj.[jiK, 76 If. 11^
thjlleiige, the, 8^ *gLobdl sympEomi c^, 76 ft

impaa orr iht Eaintly, 767

11£ 17

CQiLfronucjon v^r^u^ conscnHA»

faoblcmi oE [he ^ouih, 75-7

Human ughu
jriiJ Amnaiy Tnif rruQocial

lH-3*

iJetiiiiliDn of.

[H'lS

.

«^ h

limnaoom Jrtd lucEigths of dx

deader ju Ecu. I?» ?9[novcmcm foi, '1

iiiip«ijiii?nEi 10. 74 rr

pcnrutiem vdna. 150

iiKCmrrcjiCs of, 71

Hungary, 00(nlcniidoiul dimensions of. IJ5 H

Hygiene and lankabon.

ks[iei And pohcjn, £12 fl, 1JJ ff

improv^rmfni In.

pujblrrTH al, 114-16

prablcms in iluiTLS. 16 1'

16Government ^]and ihc rrojkci Ebfccs, IM jt
proccdurca, 113 tlrole Jn runl drv^bpfncnl. 10? fTGovemonqmlmei sought in, Ui 19
i^ktCicm nf. 129'Cri^i Divide-, the. vUff
I,

'Green pjiTiea', If

iDdefciedncq, uDrbt

Gi«nhoij«cEfca<dk,
CJuiffof.

'5 *. ^7

cFfction *ericul[urc. 'of Bra on cliniJic jnd X3 \cveV II
pfcvoitivt muiurs. 16

Green Revol jub^. che,jnlndla, U14,
Jn

fridqje Vrr 01

UMoko, TAlodb

aateoL ann in. ?* fF

Grm Revolution

In, LA 19, 41

Indikscnal developnwnt of. 19, *>,6^, 101

NamuiJj pcolecc b), 10)

proWeim erf popuknan gtowdi
II,S)

need foi waer and (emluen, 19,
IndlYiduib

GrowiJi of human acQvliy, >1 ff

and [he human miljlse 7S ft,

Gutf War, 1 fF, »Implicjtioia of, 1^ J9Impact of cuncni changes on, IIJ
Indlvidjj] vjluoKollcaJvf

vjlua.WJ

LndoTKWi, dfvclopmeni oE. i9

Indunli] Revfriubon, the.

Copyrighted material

1

170 • InOa
and aivttonmciiof ponutton. ?2
and tcchnoiogkal devtlcppmtnc, M
frtduflnal

King.

Mamn Luther, 7]w«a, difponl oi, ^^IrtdufDUllzKi naUon

IConn, 7td(ET»gnpbc change in, ?0-l

Kuw^l, ItkVBHBJ cf, 3 B, 64

MChipCCT2
cciDnDRik ^ovnh, wn
uicof unuincnTs, 10[ndtuof nuxiem irmdi In,
Inforaul «ttOl,

M

mfl

InbnniDOD
and rlMjdcm tcchnolcjy' M
JTPpjCl on cbidrcn jnd ihc
Lailn America

youih, 77 E(

jgncukiinl dfVf iDpmtni.

JCdcty. 1. 41 ff

InnovaEion in bnguagcr. Jiulyxta.

dcbfburdrn 70. 1« 7
iclaDoruhip wtch Spahi. 1?

and jpprchKh. iCO
In^Tutr for Rfsourcc M^nigf ment, J5
InCfT^cion
globdl local,

1?

IM^7

Inhnologtcal luckwaidiKb. 13

Lawof dKScuC(mfernHx,64
XjOitODg. Ebc challenge oE. tH
Leioumc, [nqun. SS

bcal indrvidEul. 1^7 -5t
inmmatlonjl insdiLiiiDni jnd curj]

mmigcmcni, 110 B
InKCnjtiorul Instllurc lev Appljrd

Sysicms Analym ^IJASA],n|D[f mjiionil Putnwship IrwiiDvc

IIPIJ.W
Iraq.

Invukm of Kuwait. I IT. M
Maaihai, Wahcaii, IM
ZhiaAa, dx. 10

Malalv. Thcprnmi, 71^

dfvfloprnciir of.

JO

pjEDnpjUQn IT wcild economy.
JjVAH

jWJUiKc ic dcbicn naUoni, )»MandfU.Kclion. 71
Market economy, 10 11, 1J4 2^

Morwm)' of, M-5

Unkm. »
gourmmcnt
indirguLatlonSr 1?^ 2^

iDuncBl acHvity. 10

and luaiainablc drvddpmsil. H-^

ievrJopmcnt af. &S

in Eait Europr aihd Soviet

llmlDikin] of, 11

MnveL Andrew. 71
MiB TDedta. role of. 14] IT
Mjx t^ccf. Mfflfred.40
Mead, Maigain, ib-

Copyrighted material

ItuUx « 171

Medudunla, V

Non Pnslifnmton Treaty IWPT), 9^M^Kil Kiencn, bmcfKi of

Notih. the,idvUKn m, tfiit

aid pcEornuncCp tf

MexicodftiniDon of. 19-20

debt burdrn oC, ^A,

dcmogEdphK change, 20-1,41 J

GiMn R^voluDon \n. IS

resource CQiLiJinpuon in, 1^

industiul and rtonomit deve-i^hnalogicij] misoncc lo

lopmf nT, *A. M
pjniLiipdtiLjn

thf South,

m ulhIlI cfDoOiAy.

fcductuci In ddn bunkn,

^'^

M

II

Nuclc:^ dabuCLon. tk«« of. 4,0

Nudor ovtgf, futujc o^, ^'NTcrere, luBiu, l« ff

MnKo City, populjtMjn of, 16
MLcioclmnxila 1. lit AS Q
and (Ticigy conxrvjUon.

W

Ff

Mtddlc EjsI. ihc.
Gull Wji III.

MigiJtiotD,

M 03

brgescjk. 42-1

Mlhory ODnomy. I>

OilCusq

Mlnorldes- jw^cning of, LS 6
MalecLiJjr biology,

I.

InipKiondcvckipingcoLiniTia. B

1%

irpcimnionj tm world etongniy, S
US policy modi-EKitlons. 7 }Naidn
dedikxim^iingpfacfQm. 16
tntcEpCAdf iKC

d mUon. LI

IT,

Fau-aoi. Jan. 7'9PiEctitj.

N-jUJondli^mFi[|»,and jwakoiingof mirKiriim, li (fdllTcr^ni: jspccn of, 79 ff

jnd prfseni crisii '0 ITi^udfru tevoU (n< 71FaithiiV'aiJihy. Mrs , ion IndU), 71

PCKC. icsfpcT fof. 1*0

Nilure. rerpcct for. \M

Pcctci, AjicJIO, rtl

NazU, rruibjjrariihi jgjinn. 70
Neih plaguf?. ihc, JfrJ
NaCi Ol Sou^h tffi ANi. 19. «^.

Potcl, hSnjoA. «. -w
LCU

NongcMcmmoital activity, mcme

Poland, hunun ngha in. 71
Polices. hjnuniLfi in, 125
pDlliiiiDn

Non-^vcrnmcncal oi^jnlzadan^,oivUDnmciLtjl dmncn, Jl i

macro polliiiHv, l^^and devclnpncnt, KP ff
imporian^-e of, 14.

M f 151 ff

pfuLfcratloDof. IStff,

mcjHirn for coitiol of. J2
rowjid) an environment Bsr

iuivlnJ.»4lf

Copyrighted material

174 • Index
Wj-iGBA, Lbch.TI

Wan. IdcjI, 9 10

Water dispum, U-9
Wdlircsuic, effect! of, W

Wcslcm CDunUJCi
Eiuikcl ccotiomy and reducuon

poslDon of women to. 06 J

Women
Improved &QCUS of, 66-7
role Jn iodal devdopnwnl, «7

World

die

DuundEu^meni. 115
nuclear chreai, <>icpcttij»iQn» oE Qil ami, iWorld [kj|[h Or^niainn I WHO), M
World Solidarity
A al\ far. Jb7
iEfflmjtion^ oL la chapter 4

rebird) of,

7i)

ao.

M

YCUTH,

fok In ranbig rcvDlunoittp K

dcvelopmenl of. ^Auteursrechteli|k beschermd materiaal

In 1972. the Glut) of

Rome published The Limits to Grffwit). a book

Ihal aroused a wonowiOe conlroversy by highlighling the clangers

possd by the relentless pursuit o^ material gro^Th by the West. In

The First Globali^6votulion.t«o members oHhe Council oi\.heC\ub
ot Rome describe how material growth and over-consumption hai/enow become a global problem. Environm^tal pollution, runaway
population growth, food and energy shortages, and geopolitical

upheavaJs make the future prospects oE the world sesm very bleak.

Whal we are witnessing today is the emergence ot the postindustrraf society, and the tumultous changes around us are
elements of this transitional phase Poised on the Dnnl< ola social
revolutic^n ushered in by modern inrormetion technology, the world
has two choices:to continue pursuing material goals and selfish aims, and thereby

cause the stow but sure decline of all worid Byslems:« to un»te and work towards building an improved Me tor future
generations.

This book offers an overall parspediva ot tha complex andinteractive global problems, and dlscus^e^ means oi solving themcompreriensivelVr

Cover design' Monica Gandhi

Foi sale in India, Neosl, SMuian, trm

Maldive Islands, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka only.

Orient Longman
KirJG a SCHNEIDER THE FIRST GLOBAL REVOLUTION

OLBN0001ieCl32X",

Auteursrechtelijk beschermd materiaal