TCFD Quantitative Analysis ~Prerequisites for Calculating Each Risk~
Risks and opportunities are calculated based on the following conditions. For each source, please refer to the following paragraph(References).
classificationprecondition

Occurrence and[1.5°C scenario]

increase of the⚫

Based on Source 1, we adopted a rent premium of 5.4% and an occupancy premium of 0.9%

burden offor properties that have obtained green building certification.

carbon taxes* The definition of whether or not a company has obtained green building certification isdefined as the definition of the Investment Corporation (Green Certification (equivalent to 3★
or more): DBJ Green Building Certification 3★ or higher, BELS Certification 3★ or higher, orCASBEE Real Estate B+ or higher).
⚫

In estimating based on the above, we will take the midpoint price of the rent, set it at apremium of +2.7% and a discount of -2.7%, and with regard to the occupancy rate,

Transition
Risks

considering that the occupancy rate of the properties owned by the Investment Corporation isPolicy

high and there is little room for an increase in the occupancy rate, the premium is 0.0%. The
discount was -0.9%.
⚫

Based on the results of the Investment Corporation, the cost of obtaining a green building
certification is set at 600,000 yen per case, and the average validity period of the GB
certification is five years.

⚫

Since it is difficult to predict the 2050 year, the results of the 2030 impact calculation havebeen deferred.

[4°C scenario]⚫

There will be no premium depending on whether or not a green building certification has beenobtained.

Declining[1.5°C scenario]

competitiveness⚫

of properties
with poorin 2050.
⚫

The improvement of BEI by energy conservation refers only to the improvement of air

environmental

conditioning and the conversion to LEDs that are carried out on a regular basis, and no special

performance

additional costs are incurred beyond the construction cost that is carried out on a regular(properties thatbasis.

have notMarketBased on Source 2, the carbon tax price was set at 140 USD/tCO2 in 2030 and 250 USD/tCO2⚫

With regard to the introduction of electricity derived from renewable energy (hereinafterobtainedreferred to as "renewable energy"), the Investment Corporation has achieved its goal ofenvironmental

introducing 100% renewable energy by 2030.

certification)※Applicable only to the portion over which NMF has management authority⚫

The additional cost associated with the introduction of renewable energy was set at 0.66
yen/kWh based on the performance of the Investment Corporation.

[4°C scenario]⚫

Based on the current Global Warming Method, the price was set at 289 yen/tCO2.

⚫

The achievement of energy conservation and renewable energy was the same as in the1.5~2°C scenario.

Occurrence and[1.5°C scenario]/[4°C scenario]

increase of⚫

property
PhysicalRisks

damage due toAcuteBased on hazard map information (floods and storm surges), the calculation was based on theprobability of a flood occurring once every 1,000 years.

⚫

In addition to the above, based on Source 3, an increase in the probability of flooding was

floods andfactored in. (2.3 times in the 1.5°C scenario and 9 times in the 4°C scenario from 2020 tostorm surges,2100)

and decrease in⚫

As the amount of direct damage, the damage rate of the number of floors of the building

rental incomeaccording to the depth of inundation was taken into account based on the source 4, and thedue tostructure of the building was taken into account. The amount of damage was calculated bysuspension ofbusinessmultiplying the replacement price by the damage rate.
⚫

As the amount of indirect damage, the number of days off work according to the depth ofinundation was calculated based on sources 4 and 5, and subtracted from the annual rentalincome.

Rise in non-life[1.5°C scenario]/[4°C scenario]

insurance⚫

premiums

Based on Source 6, the rate of increase in the reference net rate of fire insurance premiums(1.5~2 °C: 4.1%, 4°C: 6.3%) was multiplied by the net insurance premium rate (45%) toobtain the annual premium increase rate (1.5~2°C: 1.84%, 4°C: 2.84%).

⚫

Based on the results of the Investment Corporation, the most recent non-life insurance
premium amount is multiplied by the annual increase rate by a power calculation, and theestimated amount of insurance premiums for 2030 and 2050 is calculated for each scenario.

ChronicIncreased[1.5°C scenario]/[4°C scenario]

Cooling Costs⚫

The assumption of temperature rise was based on the value of source 3.

⚫

If the air temperature rises by 1°C, it is assumed that it will be affected in the same way as if
the heating and cooling temperature is changed by 1°C, and the amount of electricity used will
increase by 10%.

(References)
Source 1: CBRE Office Building Environmental Certification Trends 2023
Source 2: IEA World Energy Outlook 2023
Source 3: Bank of Japan Physical risks faced by Japan financial institutions due to climate change (NGFS)
Source 4: Ministry of the Environment Recommendations for Formulating Management Strategies Using TCFD~Practical Guide to Scenario Analysis
Incorporating Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities 2022 edition~
Source 5: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism Flood Control Economic Survey Manual
Source 6: The damage protection rate is calculated as the reference net rate of fire protection