Soocheol LEEProfessor,
Faculty of Economics ,Meijo University
slee@meijo-.ac.jp

Fukushima Accident and Generation Costs ofPower Sources

CONTENTS

Energy Transition Policy of Japan after
Fukushima Accident

Cost and Benefit of Renewable Energy Transit

Renewable Energy Transition of local Autonom-Case of Iida and Maniwa City Conclusion and Policy Implication

Appendix

Fukushima Accident
and Generation Costsof Power Sources

Current Reactors Operation, standstill andapplication for operation (2018 August)951322

Generation Cost of Power Sources
Estimated by Japanese Government before theFukushima Accident(2009)
Generation cost(yen/kWh)Ground pushing for
nuclear policy by theJapanese government

PV Large wind Large hydro LNG

Source; METI(2001,2004,2009)

NuclearGeothermal

Generation Cost of Nuclear Power
Estimated by Japanese Government after the
Fukushima Accident(2011,2016)↑10.2yen/kWh

Risk management cost
+0.5 yen+1.1 yen

Policy cost

+1.4 yenAccident prevention cost
5.9 yen

5.9 yenEstimated in 2009

Estimated in 2011,2016

source;METI

Generation Cost of Power Sourcesin 2030
Nuclear Power construction
cost(330,000yen/kW) before
Fukushima accident

Nuclear Power construction
cost of Hincli Point (1.3million yen/kW) after
Fukushima accident

NuclearCoalGasPV(house) Wind

Source; Renewable Energy Institution(2015)

Energy Transition
Policy of Japan
After Fukushima
AccidentPower Mix Plan before Fukushima Accident
TWh
1200

1000

800

600

renewable energies(0.9%)

Hydro(8.2%)(7.7%)

Nuclear(30.9%)(25.8%)

LNG(23.7%)(7.7%)(10.2%)(9.2%)

Renewable＋Large hydro20%(41.5%)(48.7%)(27.6%)

Nuclear50%(22.1%)

400

200(5.8%)(1.0%)

Coal(25.6%)(25.4%)(14.2%)(18.2%)Petroleum(10.9%)(13.2%)

2005(actual)

2007(actual)(14.0%)

Fossil30%(4.6%)
2020

Source: Long-term Energy Outlook in Japan by METI(2009)2030(estimated)(3.8%)

Japan`s Energy Policy Target after
Fukushima Accident

3E+S

Source:METI(2012)

Japan`s New Energy Plan in 2050
(July 2018)●Push Renewables as Main Energy Source
Renewables＋Battery●Strengthen R&D for Hydrogen Energy
Renewables＋Hydrogen Energy.
.
.
.

●Reducing the share of Nuclear Power.

●Fading out inefficient Coal Power.

Establishing New Organization in charge of New Energy PlanAchievingDecarbonizedSociety in2050
Complyingwith Paris
Agreement

GHG Emission Trend and Long-term
Reduction Target of Japan(0.1 billion CO2 ton)

26% reduction
comparing to 2013This target does
not require justsweat. This will
create newtechnologies,
new jobs andnew industries
to strengthen
theinternationalcompetitiveness

80% reduction by2050

New Energy Mix Plan of Japanese
Government in 2030

Source: METI(2018)

Feed-in Tariff Price of Japan
FIT prices (yen/kWh)Power sources(Years of FIT 20 years)

비고2012

2013

2014

2016

PV (under 10kW )

4238

37

25~33

10 yearsPV (10kW~ )40363224

20 years

Wind (under 20kW)

55

55

55

55

20 years

Wind (20kW~ )

2222

22

22

Wind offshore 36yen(2014~ )Small Hydro (under 200kW)

34

34

34

34

Small Hydro (200-1,000kW)

29

29

29

29(1,000-30,000kW)

24

24

24

24

Geo-thermal(under 15,000kW)

40

40

40

40

26

26

26

26

BiogasBiomass (thinning wood etc. )

39
32-40

39
32-40

39
32-40

39
32-40

Biomass (other woods )

24

24

24

24

13

13

13

13

17

17

17

17(15,000kW~ )(construction wastes)
Waste generation

source: METI(2017)20 years

20 years

20 years14

Fed-in Tariff Price of Solar PV(10kW+)

2012

2013

2014

2018

Auction for 2MW+,
20 yen/kWh for 10kW～2MW
26~28 yen/ kWh for below 10kWh2019

Auction for 2MW+,
19 yen/kWh for 10kW～2MW
24～26 yen/ kWh for below 10kWhRenewable Power Transition of Japan
from 2011 to 2017
Power Mix of 2011
Renewable 2.7%
Excluding Large Hydro

Power Mix of 2017
Renewable 7.9%
Excluding Large Hydro
Solar 5.7% ,Biomass1.5%,
Wind0.7%

Power Sources Mix of Germany
Feed-in Tariff(1991)

Feed-in Premium(2017)

etc.

RenewablePetroleum
LNG
Coal
Nuclear
Brown coalsources：Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen e.V "Bruttostromerzeugung in
Deutschland ab 1990 nach Energieträgern" (2017.12.21)

Cost and Benefit ofRenewable Energy
Transition

Feed-in Tariff Surcharge in Electricity Bill

(household, 300kWh/month)
2012

2013

surcharge(yen/kWh)0.22

0.35 0.75 1.58

2.25 2.64

amount(yen/month)66

105 225

675

Total amount(trillionyen/year)

0.13

0.33 0.65 1.32

source; METI(2017)

2014

2015

474

2016

2017

800675
1.8 2.14

Merit Order Effect by Renewables
Comparison of average wholesale
electricity price in FY2011 and FY2016
by time periods12

Day time wholesale
electricity price down by
Merit Order Effect by
renewables

Source; Renewable Energy Institution(2017)

Weighted average unit cost ofelectricity of the ten major utilities

Source; Renewable Energy Institution(2017)

Estimated numbers of jobs in 2016
by renewable energy sources

Source; Renewable Energy Institution(2017)

Cost- Benefit Effect of Solar PV in Japan

Total Capacity
Solar PV generation

Generation
Share of T electricity

Total generation
CO2 reduction

Economic EffectTotal amount(comparing 2015)(Carbon price)
Crude Oil import
Reduction
Save Crude oil import

Generation to final
energy consumption

Total FIT cost of nation

Source ;Japan Photovoltaic Energy Association(2017)

Renewable Energy
Transition of Local
Autonomy-Cases of Iida andManiwa City-New local business by solar PV～Ohisama Simpo Co. of Iida City～

Iida City and its vicinity 337 place、4.4 MW
太陽光発電システムの設置（電力の利用）

Sales amount
Employees

ファンド調達実績
2005～2015（by 9Funds）～2015

2030まで

about 2.8million$―

0→11人――
about14.8million$

Regional economic effect
基礎数値 ： 7ファンド 11億8,300万円（2005～2013）分

about 29million$

備考337place
4,4MW by solar20

Renewables Support System by Renewable
Energy Ordinance of Iida City
Mayor●Approval●Offering credit●No interest●Tax preference

AdviceRenewables
SupportCommittee
AdviceBank,Investor

AdviceAutonomy
Organizationof the City
SupportLocal citizen`sactivity

Cooperativecompanies

Loan
Investment●Generation company
with citizen investment●Local electric company●Company of land ownership

Source; Iida City26

Biomass Power Plant in Maniwa

Conclusion andPolicy Implication
to Korea

Social Value of Renewable Energy
Environmental preservation value

Large size RE

Small size RE

National energy security value

World peace value
Regional valueThe role of policies accelerating
renewable energy deploymentSource;自然エネルギー財団

Japan`s Energy Policy Target for

3E+S

Energy Equity, Energy Autonomy
Energy Symbiotic

1. Present Positive Renewable
Energy Vision to the peoples

3030/5050• At least• 30% by 2030
• 50% by 2050

2. Renewable Energy Policy Designby Business Types• Mega Capital• Small and Medium Capital• Local Citizen Initiative CapitalSolar PV Projects by Business Types
TypeLarge
capitalBusiness entities

PowerCompanies
Large
companies

Local capital Local
companies
LocalAutonomy

Installation place대규모 공유지(페기물매립지등)자사소유지(대형 공장내토지 등)자사소유지(중소규모토지)중소규모공유지
개인소유지(나대지 등)citiesLocal Citizen
NGO／etc.
Initiative

capacitySize of business~100MW

수백억엔

~10MW

수십억엔

~5MW~10억엔
1~2MW~5억엔100~900kW
수천만엔공유시설지붕개인시시설지
붕

Under 100kW수백만엔주； 붉은 점선부분은 사업평가에 상당한 비용이 요구되는 프로젝트파이낸싱 등의 수법이 성립되기 어려운 10억엔 미만의 사업에 해당됨

Source :MOE(2014) 지역에 있어서 신재생에너지사업평가(태양광사업)3. Utilizing Local Renewable
Resources Sufficiently⇒Save balancing andnetworking cost of
the electricity⇒This is possible by thesupport of Feed-in Tariff

4. Electric Power Grid
Reinforcement for Renewables

Coal,
LNG
power

RECoal,
LNG
power

RE
Nuclearpower5.Financing for Promoting Energy
Autonomous⇒Role of 「Local Energy Environment Taxes」
Gasoline tax and tax revenue of JapanTax revenue（2016）

tax rate

Gasoline tax（national tax）

2,386billion yen

48.6円/ℓLocal Gasoline Tax（local tax）

255 billion yen

5.2円/ℓ

2,641 billion yen

53.8円/ℓtotalSource ：財務省（2016）

gasoline tax and tax revenue of Korea
Tax revenue（2014）

tax rate

Transportation・Energy・Environment
Tax

13,738 billion won

529ｳｫﾝ/ℓDriving tax

3,556 billion won

137.5ｳｫﾝ/ℓEducation Tax

260 billion won

79.4ｳｫﾝ/ℓ

19,355 billion won745.9ｳｫﾝ/ℓ

計Source ：韓国国税庁（2015）지속가능한 저탄소사회는 지구환경은물론 생명의 안전과 경제 및 사회의지속가능을 위해서 피할 수 없는 선택이며 이는,현행 에너지시스템의 대규모적인 전환즉, with mid-long term base
Fading out nuclear power
Fading out fossil fuel power
Promoting renewables as their substitution을 통해서 실현이 가능Thank you for your kindattention