,-(5'±,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDODQG5XUDO'HYHORSPHQW  ±
5HVHDUFKDUWLFOHᶃᶐᶂ,PSDFWVRI8SVWUHDP,UULJDWLRQ'HYHORSPHQWRQ'HOWDLF
/DQGVFDSH5HVRXUFHVDQG/LYHOLKRRG$&DVHRI,QGXV'HOWD
LQ6LQGK3URYLQFH3DNLVWDQ
-81$,'$/$00(021
6FKRRORI(QYLURQPHQW5HVRXUFHVDQG'HYHORSPHQW$VLDQ,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\7KDLODQG(PDLOMXQDLGDODPPHPRQ#DLWDFWK

*23$/%7+$3$
6FKRRORI(QYLURQPHQW5HVRXUFHVDQG'HYHORSPHQW$VLDQ,QVWLWXWHRI7HFKQRORJ\7KDLODQG
5HFHLYHG-DQXDU\

$FFHSWHG-XO\$EVWUDFW 2YHU WKH SHULRG RI ODVW  \HDUV PDVVLYH LUULJDWLRQ GHYHORSPHQW LQ 3DNLVWDQ DQGVXEVHTXHQWGLVWXUEDQFHLQWKHQDWXUDOFRXUVHRI,QGXV5LYHUKDVOHGWRVLJQLILFDQWFKDQJHVLQODQGVFDSH DQG QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV RI WKH ,QGXV GHOWD 7KRXVDQGV RI KHFWDUHV RI SUHFLRXVDJULFXOWXUDOODQGKDYHEHHQHQJXOIHGE\WKHVHD7KHSDFHRIWKHVHFKDQJHVKDVEHHQUHSRUWHG
FRQVLGHUDEO\ IDVWHU GXULQJ WKH ODVW WZR GHFDGHV $ VXUYH\ XVLQJ VWUXFWXUHG TXHVWLRQQDLUH
)RFXV*URXS'LVFXVVLRQV )*'V DQGLQWHUYLHZVZDVFDUULHGRXWGXULQJ$SULO-XO\ WRVWXG\ KRZ WKH FKDQJHV LQ ODQGVFDSH DQG UHVRXUFHV KDYH DIIHFWHG WKH ORFDO OLYHOLKRRGV DQG
VRFLDO IDEULF LQ WKH GHOWD 7KH ILQGLQJV RI WKH DQDO\VLV UHYHDOHG DOO WKUHH PDMRU RFFXSDWLRQDOJURXSV  ULFH IDUPHUV OLYHVWRFN KHUGHUV DQG ILVKHUPHQ  LQ WKH GHOWD DUH H[SHULHQFLQJGLVWXUELQJ FKDQJHV LQ WKHLU OLYHOLKRRGV )RUPHU ULFH IDUPHUV DQG OLYHVWRFN KHUGHUV KDYHGLYHUWHG WR ILVKLQJ UHVXOWLQJ LQ WKH RYHUFURZGLQJ RI PDULQH ILVKHU\ 6XEVHTXHQWO\ YDULRXVKDUPIXO ILVKLQJ SUDFWLFHV DUH LQ YRJXH WKHUHE\ H[HUWLQJ VHYHUH SUHVVXUH RQ UHVRXUFHV DQGPDNLQJORFDOOLYHOLKRRGVLQFUHDVLQJO\YXOQHUDEOH,QFUHDVHGFRPSHWLWLRQIRUOLPLWHGUHVRXUFHVKDVVLJQLILFDQWO\DIIHFWHGWKHVRFLDOIDEULFLQWKHGHOWDDVGLIIHUHQWVRFLDOJURXSVGRQRWKDYHVLPLODUGHJUHHVRIKDUPRQ\DVHQMR\HGLQWKHSDVW7KHFDVHRI,QGXV'HOWDLVDVWDUNH[DPSOH
RIHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLDOGLVWXUEDQFHVDULVLQJIURPDQDUURZIRFXVHGµGHYHORSPHQW¶7KH
ILQGLQJVRIWKHVWXG\KDYHXVHIXOSROLF\LPSOLFDWLRQV.H\ZRUGVLUULJDWLRQGHYHORSPHQWILVKHU\UHVRXUFHVORFDOOLYHOLKRRG,QGXVGHOWD

,1752'8&7,21
7KH 7UDQV +LPDOD\DQ 5LYHU ,QGXV LV WKH PRVW SURPLQHQW JHRJUDSKLFDO IHDWXUH RI WKH 6RXWK $VLDQODQGVFDSH $ERXW  RI WKH EDVLQ DUHD RI 5LYHU ,QGXV OLHV LQ 3DNLVWDQ ZKHUH WKH ZRUOG¶V ODUJHVWJUDYLW\GULYHQLUULJDWLRQV\VWHPKDVEHHQGHYHORSHG )LJ 7KLVV\VWHPFRPSULVHVPDMRUGDPV EDUUDJHV  LQWHUULYHU FDQDOV  SHUHQQLDO DQG QRQSHUHQQLDO FDQDOV ZLWK D UXQQLQJ OHQJWK RI
DERXWNPVDQGDERXWZDWHUFRXUVHVZLWKDQHVWLPDWHGUXQQLQJOHQJWKRIPRUHWKDQPLOOLRQ NPV .DPDO  +DPHHG   7KH LUULJDWLRQ ZDWHU LV VSUHDG RYHU DERXW  PLOOLRQKHFWDUHV DFFRXQWLQJ IRU  RI 3DNLVWDQ¶V IDUPODQG 5L]YL  7KH VWDEOH LUULJDWLRQ KDVFRQVLGHUDEO\ERRVWHGDJULFXOWXUDOSURGXFWLRQDFFRXQWLQJIRURI*'3DQGRIHPSOR\HGODERU
IRUFHWKXVWKHVHFWRULVFRQVLGHUHGDVWKHµEDFNERQH¶RIWKHHFRQRP\ 0R) 5HVXOWDQWO\WKH
JRYHUQPHQWLVHQWKXVHGIRUPRUHGDPPLQJRQ5LYHU,QGXVDLPHGDWLUULJDWLQJPLOOLRQKHFWRUVRIUHPDLQLQJFXOWLYDEOHODQGDZDLWLQJZDWHU +DPHHG 'HVSLWH WKH LPSUHVVLYH UROH LQ DJURHFRQRP\ WKH GDP FRQVWUXFWLRQ LQ 3DNLVWDQ LV KLJKO\FRQWURYHUVLDO PDLQO\ GXH WR ZDWHUVKDULQJ IRUPXOD DQG QRQFRPSOLDQFH RI SUHYLRXV ZDWHU DFFRUGVDPRQJSURYLQFHVDQGHQYLURQPHQWDODQGVRFLDOFRQFHUQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKLW 7&:5 ,Q6LQGKSURYLQFHRQHRIWKHNH\FRQFHUQVLVWKHGRZQVWUHDPGHOWDLFHFRORJ\WKDWKDVEHHQVLJQLILFDQWO\DOWHUHG
GXH WR ZDWHU VKRUWDJH DQG VXEVHTXHQW VHD LQWUXVLRQ %\ GUDZLQJ RQ VRPH RI WKH VWXGLHV UHSRUWLQJ
FKDQJHV LQ FRDVWDO ODQGVFDSH WKLV DUWLFOH DWWHPSWV WR VWXG\ WKH ZD\ WKHVH ODQGVFDSH FKDQJHV KDV,6(5',-(5'±,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDODQG5XUDO'HYHORSPHQW  ±
DIIHFWHGORFDOOLYHOLKRRGV7KHVXEVHTXHQWVHFWLRQSURYLGHVDEULHIRQPHWKRGRORJ\DQGLVIROORZHGE\UHVXOWVDQGGLVFXVVLRQVDQGFRQFOXVLRQVVHFWLRQV
0(7+2'2/2*<
7KH VWXG\ ZDV EDVHG RQ WKH WHPSRUDO GDWD REWDLQHG IURP ERWK SULPDU\ DQG VHFRQGDU\ GDWD VRXUFHV3ULPDU\GDWDDWKRXVHKROGOHYHOZDVFROOHFWHGWKURXJKVWUXFWXUHGTXHVWLRQQDLUHV)*'VLQWHUYLHZDQG
REVHUYDWLRQDO PHWKRGV RI VRFLDO UHVHDUFK 3ULRU WR GHWDLOHG GDWD FROOHFWLRQ D UHFRQQDLVVDQFH ZDVFDUULHGRXWIRUILHOGRULHQWDWLRQDQGVXUYH\SODQQLQJ,WFRQVLVWHGRIYDULRXVPHHWLQJVZLWKFRQFHUQHG
RIILFLDOVDQGORFDOVIROORZHGE\YLVLWVWRFRDVWDOYLOODJHV%DVHGRQLQVLJKWVIURPUHFRQQDLVVDQFHWKH
VWXG\DUHDZDVGLYLGHGLQWRWKUHHSDUWV )LJ 6LQFHPDMRULW\RISRSXODWLRQLVFXUUHQWO\HQJDJHGLQ
PDULQH ILVKHU\ D VDPSOH RI  UDQGRPO\ VHOHFWHG KRXVHKROGV ZDV GHWHUPLQHG DQG GUDZQSURSRUWLRQDWHO\ FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR WKH WRWDO QXPEHU RI KRXVHKROG LQ HDFK SDUW RI WKH VWXG\ DUHD$FFRUGLQJO\KRXVHKROGVLQWKHHDVWHUQSDUWKRXVHKROGVLQWKHFHQWUDOSDUWDQGKRXVHKROGVLQWKHZHVWHUQSDUWZHUHVXUYH\HG
'DWDFROOHFWLRQZDVFDUULHGRXWGXULQJ$SULO-XO\$VWKHVWUXFWXUHGTXHVWLRQQDLUHFRPSULVHG
RIWKHGDWDRQVWDWXVRIOLYHOLKRRGDQGUHVRXUFHVIRUSDVWDQGSUHVHQWWLPHLWZDVPDGHVXUHWKDWHLWKHUWKHUHVSRQGHQWLVKRXVHKROGKHDGRUDPHPEHUDJLQJDERYH\HDUV,Q)*'VWKH\RXQJSDUWLFLSDQWV
ZHUH HQFRXUDJHG WR FRPPHQW RQ VWDWHPHQWV RI WKH PLG DQG ROGDJH SDUWLFLSDQWV DERXW WKH SUHVHQW
VWDWH RI DIIDLUV LQ WKH VWXG\ DUHD ,QWHUYLHZV ZLWK ORZHUWLHU UHYHQXH DQG ORFDO JRYHUQPHQW RIILFLDOVJUDVVURRWDQGPLGOHYHO1*2ZRUNHUVVRFLDODFWLYLVWVSROLWLFLDQVFLYLOVRFLHW\PHPEHUVDQGORFDOO\NQRZOHGJHDEOH SHUVRQV ZHUH DOVR XVHIXO LQ XQGHUVWDQGLQJ DQG YDOLGDWLQJ ILQGLQJV DQG REVHUYDWLRQV'HVFULSWLYHVWDWLVWLFDOWRROVZHUHXVHGIRUPDNLQJLQIHUHQFHVIURPKRXVHKROGGDWD



1

:
(

6






/HJHQG 0DMRUGDPVDQGUHVHUYLRUVz%DUUDJHV,QGXV'HOWD,QGXVDQGLWVPDLQWULEXWDULHV&RDVWDOERXQGU\,QWHUQDWLRQDOERXQGU\)LJ/RFDWLRQRIWKHVWXG\DUHDLQ3DNLVWDQLQFOXGLQJLPSRUWDQWUHVHUYRLUVDQG
EDUUDJHVRQ5LYHU,QGXVDQGLWVWULEXWDULHV&+,1$



,6
7
$

1

RDVW
KLF





$
1

VWH
:H

$

D
UQS



,6
7
$
1

HO WD
H G
IWK
UWR

z

z

z

z

z

'
,$

G
WKH
RI
SD UW
DO

z

,1

WU
&HQ

3
$
.

z

z

z

,5$1

z

z zz

)
*
+

DF
W.DU
HND
LFUH
UDQJ
.R

HOWD



z

$5$%,$16($

U
VWH
(D

U W
SD
Q

HOW


5

HG
WK
RI

$ 

D

$

(
6

6L
U F
UHH
ND
ORQ



J,
QG
LDQ
E

RUG
HU

1
$
,
%

$







 .LORPHWHUV
5(68/76$1'',6&866,216
5HJXODWHGK\GURORJLFDOUHJLPHVRI5LYHU,QGXVDQGHFRORJLFDOFKDQJHVLQGHOWDLFODQGVFDSH
7KH UHFHQW KLVWRU\ RI IORZ UHJXODWLRQGLYHUVLRQ RQ 5LYHU ,QGXV GDWHV EDFN WR  ZLWK WKHFRQVWUXFWLRQRIWKH8SSHU%DUL'RDE&DQDO+RZHYHUFKDQJHVLQK\GUDXOLFUHJLPHVWRWKHGHOWDZHUHQRWREVHUYHGXQWLOFRPPLVVLRQLQJRI6XNNDU%DUUDJHLQ,WZDVWKHILUVWWLPHWKDWFRDVWDOSHRSOHUHDOL]HGWKHSRZHURIKXPDQDUWLIDFWWKDWFRXOGGLYHUWPLJKW\ULYHURULJLQDWLQJIURPWKHPRXWKRIWKH
OLRQ ORFDO P\WK EDVHG RQ WKH 5LJ9HGD ±DQ DQFLHQW VFULSWXUH RI +LQGXLVP  7KH VLWXDWLRQ IXUWKHU
,6(5',-(5'±,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDODQG5XUDO'HYHORSPHQW  ±
DJJUDYDWHGZLWKWKHLQFHSWLRQRI.RWULEDUUDJHLQ*XGGXEDUUDJHLQ&KDVKPDEDUUDJHLQ0HDQZKLOHWZRPDMRUGDPVQDPHO\0DQJOD'DPRQ-HKODP5LYHU±DWULEXWDU\RI,QGXV±LQ DQG 7DUEHOOD 'DP RQ ,QGXV LQ  ZHUH DOVR FRQVWUXFWHG WR PDLQWDLQ WKH SHUHQQLDO IORZ RI
EDUUDJHQHWZRUNLQWKHFRXQWU\7KLVOLVWFRQWLQXHVWRJURZZLWKYDULRXVFRPSOHWHGXQGHUFRQVWUXFWLRQ
DQG SURSRVHG LUULJDWLRQ H[SDQVLRQ SURMHFWV RQ ,QGXV 5LYHU 6\VWHP 7KH KDOI FHQWXU\ WLPHVHULHVLQIRUPDWLRQLQGLFDWHVDKLJKO\IOXFWXDWLQJEXWGRZQZDUGWUHQGLQIUHVKZDWHUUHOHDVHWRWKH,QGXVGHOWD
)LJ   7KLV WUHQG LV IXUWKHU UHLQIRUFHG E\ VWHDG\ XSZDUG WUHQGV LQ IDUPJDWH ZDWHU DYDLODELOLW\ IRULUULJDWLRQDQGWKHQXPEHURI]HURIORZGD\VWRWKHGRZQVWUHDP&KDQJLQJK\GUDXOLFEHKDYLRUKDVDOVRUHGXFHG WKH VHGLPHQW EXGJHW WR WKH GHOWD E\  VLQFH  *LRVDQ HW DO  .UDYWVRYD HW DO 

)LJ&KDQJHVLQZDWHUUHJLPHVRQ,QGXV5LYHU 6RXUFH:$3'$:$3'$FLWHGLQ+DPHHG
*LRVDQHWDODQG0,1)$/FLWHGLQ
0R) )LJ/RVVRIDJULFXOWXUDOODQGLQVL[FRDVWDOVXEGLVWULFWVRI7KDWWDGLVWULFWLQ6LQGK3URYLQFH3DNLVWDQ 6RXUFH'25 

7KHFKDQJHLQ,QGXV5LYHU¶VQDWXUDOFRXUVHKDVKDGDGHWULPHQWDOHIIHFWRQWKHGHOWDLFHFRORJ\
7KLV KDV WUDQVIRUPHG ,QGXV GHOWD IURP ULYHULQH GRPLQDWHG WR D PDULQH GRPLQDWHG HFRV\VWHP.UDYWVRYD HW DO   7KH PRVW VHULRXV HIIHFW KDV EHHQ VHD ZDWHU LQWUXVLRQ LQ WKH GHOWDLF UHJLRQZKLFKLVUDSLGO\HQFURDFKLQJLQODQGDQGKDVFDXVHGDORVVRIPRUHWKDQKDRIDJULFXOWXUDOODQG
LQ VL[ FRDVWDO VXEGLVWULFWV RI 7KDWWD )LJ   7KH PDQJURYHV  RQFH D SURPLQHQW IHDWXUH RI GHOWDLF
ODQGVFDSH  DUH QR PRUH LQXQGDWHG E\ IUHVKZDWHU DQG DUH JUDGXDOO\ YDQLVKLQJ WRJHWKHU ZLWK RWKHUHOHPHQWVRIELRGLYHUVLW\ ,8&16KDKHWDO 0DQ\SRUWWRZQVLQFOXGLQJ6RNKL%DQGDUDQG 1LQGR %DQGDU 'KDQGR %DQGDU ZKLFK ZHUH RQFH UHQRZQHG IRU WKHLU UHGULFH DQG EXWWHUH[SRUWV+XJKHV   DUH DEDQGRQHG GXH WR WKH GHYDVWDWLQJ FKDQJHV LQ UHJLRQDO HFRQRP\ 7KH UXLQV RI
YDULRXVVXFKSRUWWRZQVDUHVFDWWHUHGWKURXJKRXWWKHGHOWDDQGLQGLFDWHWKHVSOHQGLGSDVWRIWKHGHOWDLFUHJLRQ ,QWHUYLHZREVHUYDWLRQV  7KH .HWL %DQGDU WRZQ RQH WKH VXEGLVWULFWV RI 7KDWWD KDV EHHQGLVSODFHGWKUHHWLPHVGXULQJODVWFHQWXU\PDLQO\GXHWRVHDLQWUXVLRQ$WLWVFXUUHQWORFDWLRQWRRWKH
WRZQ KDV VXUYLYHG RQO\ EHFDXVH RI DQ DUWLILFLDO HPEDQNPHQW DURXQG LW $OO WKHVH FKDQJHV KDYHLPSLQJHG VHYHUHO\ XSRQ ORFDO SHRSOH¶V OLYHOLKRRG DQG VRFLDO IDEULF RI WKH GHOWD ,QWHUYLHZ
REVHUYDWLRQV 
2FFXSDWLRQDOFKDQJHV,QWHUYLHZV)*'VDQGKRXVHKROGGDWDUHYHDOWKDWKLVWRULFDOO\WKHGHOWDKDGWKUHHRFFXSDWLRQDOJURXSVQDPHO\ ULFH FXOWLYDWRUV FXP JHQHUDO KHUGHUV ILVKHUPHQ DQG KHUGHUV ZKR ZHUH VSHFLDOL]HG LQ FDPHOUHDULQJ 6LQFH WLPH LPPHPRULDO GLIIHUHQW RFFXSDWLRQDO JURXSV ZHUH OLYLQJ LQ KDUPRQ\ DQG WKHLURFFXSDWLRQV ZHUH FRPSOHPHQWDU\ $ GLVFULPLQDWLRQ EDVHG RQ VRFLRHFRQRPLF VWDWXV RI HDFKRFFXSDWLRQDOJURXSKRZHYHUH[LVWHG5LFHFXOWLYDWLRQFDPHOKHUGLQJDQGILVKLQJZHUHFRQVLGHUHGDV
,6(5',-(5'±,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDODQG5XUDO'HYHORSPHQW  ±
KLJKPHGLXPDQGORZSURILOHRFFXSDWLRQVUHVSHFWLYHO\6XFKGLVFULPLQDWLRQZDVPRUHOLNHDVRFLDOJXDUDQWHHDJDLQVWRFFXSDWLRQDOLQWUXVLRQDPRQJGLIIHUHQWJURXSV:LWKDIHZH[FHSWLRQVFRPPXQLWLHVLQWKHFHQWUDODUHDRIWKHGHOWD )LJ ZHUHSULPDULO\HQJDJHGLQUHGULFHFXOWLYDWLRQPRVWO\GRQHRQULYHULQXQGDWLRQRQWKHGHOWDLFPXGIODWV7KHVHFRPPXQLWLHVDOVRUDLVHGOLYHVWRFNFRQVLVWLQJRIEXIIDORFRZJRDWVKHHSDQGRFFDVLRQDOO\FDPHOVDVWKHLUVHFRQGDU\RFFXSDWLRQ7KHFHQWUDOUHJLRQZDVWKH
PDLQSURGXFHURIUHGULFHDQGJKHHDGHULYDWLYHRIEXWWHUZKLFKHYHQWXDOO\ZHUHEHLQJH[SRUWHGWRQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHV +XJKHV 2QRWKHUKDQGFRPPXQLWLHVRIWKHHDVWHUQDQGZHVWHUQSDUWV
ZHUHPRVWO\VSHFLDOL]HGLQFDPHOKHUGLQJDQGILVKLQJUHVSHFWLYHO\
2YHU ODVW IHZ GHFDGHV WKH RFFXSDWLRQDO FRQILJXUDWLRQ RI WKH GHOWD KDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ EHHQUHVKXIIOHG 7DEOH ,QIRUPDWLRQFROOHFWHGWKURXJKKRXVHKROGVXUYH\LQGLFDWHVDQRYHUZKHOPLQJVKLIWRI FRDVWDO SRSXODWLRQ IURP OLYHVWRFN KHUGLQJ DQG ILHOG ULFH FXOWLYDWLRQ WR ILVKLQJ DV WKHLU SULPDU\RFFXSDWLRQ %HIRUH VXFK D FKDQJH WRRN SODFH RQO\ D QHJOLJLEOH SURSRUWLRQ RI WKH SRSXODWLRQ ZDVHQJDJHGLQILVKLQJDVWKHLUVHFRQGDU\RFFXSDWLRQ7KLVFOHDUO\LQGLFDWHVWKDWWKHVHFRPPXQLWLHVZHUHFRPSHOOHG IRU DQ RYHUQLJKW VKLIW WRZDUGV DQ RFFXSDWLRQ IRU ZKLFK WKH\ ZHUH WRWDOO\ QDwYH DQG
LQH[SHULHQFHG +RXVHKROG GDWD DQG )*'V XQIROG WKDW WKH DJULFXOWXUDO HFRQRP\ RI WKH FHQWUDO GHOWD
FROODSVHGGXHWRSURORQJHGGU\SHULRGVDQGVXEVHTXHQWVHDLQWUXVLRQ )LJVDQG ,QVXFKDVLWXDWLRQ
WKH ILVKHUPHQ FRPPXQLWLHV YROXQWDULO\ ZHOFRPHG ULFH FXOWLYDWRUV RI FHQWUDO SDUW RI WKH GHOWD WR WKHILVKLQJ RFFXSDWLRQ 7KH ULFH FXOWLYDWRUV LQLWLDOO\ MRLQHG WKH RFFXSDWLRQ DV ODERUHUV EXW ZLWK JUDGXDONQRZKRZDQGH[SHULHQFHLQILVKLQJWKH\VWDUWHGWKHLURZQRSHUDWLRQV
7DEOH2FFXSDWLRQDOFKDQJHVDPRQJFRDVWDOFRPPXQLWLHV2FFXSDWLRQ)LVKHUPHQ/LYHVWRFN KHUGLQJ LQFOXGHVJHQHUDODQGFDPHOKHUGHUV
5LFHFXOWLYDWLRQ(PSOR\HGLQ*2 3YWVHFWRU2WKHURFFXSDWLRQV:LWKRXWDQ\RFFXSDWLRQ
7RWDO

3ULPDU\RFFXSDWLRQ
Q  &XUUHQW \HDUV \HDUV
DJR   DJR  




6HFRQGDU\RFFXSDWLRQ
Q  &XUUHQW \HDUV \HDUV
DJR   DJR  





















































+RZHYHUIRUFDPHOKHUGHUVWKHRFFXSDWLRQDOVKLIWWRRNDVOLJKWO\GLIIHUHQWWUDMHFWRU\%HIRUHWKH
IHOWVFDUFLW\RIIUHVKZDWHUFDPHOUHDULQJZDVDOPRVWDFRVWIUHH DWOHDVWLQPRQLWRU\WHUPV DFWLYLW\&DPHOVXVHGWREHNHSWLQVLGHPDQJURYHVRIWKHGHOWDZKHUHWKH\IHGRQ$YLFHQQDPDULQDOHDYHVDQG
GUDQN VZHHW ZDWHU IURP QHDUE\ FUHHNV 2QFH WKH ULYHU VWDUWHG UXQQLQJ GU\ WKHVH FRPPXQLWLHV ZHUHFRPSHOOHGWREHDUXQH[SHFWHGFRVWRIZDWHUWUDQVSRUWDWLRQIRUWKHLUFDPHOV7KLVFRVWZDVXQDIIRUGDEOH
IRUWKHVHFRPPXQLWLHVDVWKH\ZHUHSRRU7KHQHZLPSRVHGFRVWQRWRQO\FRPSHOOHGWKHPWRVHHNIRU
DOWHUQDWLYHRFFXSDWLRQEXWDOVRSLQJHGRQWKHORQJGUDZQGHVLUHRIGDLO\LQFRPHIRUWKHLUOLYHOLKRRGV0HDQZKLOH RFFXSDWLRQDO WUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RQJRLQJ LQ WKH FHQWUDO GHOWD VHUYHG ERWK DV D VRXUFH RI
LQVSLUDWLRQDQGLPLWDWLRQIRUDQDOWHUQDWHVRXUFHRIOLYHOLKRRGDYDLODEOHDWGRRUVWHS7KHFDPHOKHUGHUVWRRMRLQHGILVKLQJDVODERUHUVDQGODWHUVWDUWHGWKHLURZQRSHUDWLRQV,PSDFWRIRFFXSDWLRQDOFKDQJHRQPDULQHILVKHU\UHVRXUFHV
7KHPDVVLYHRFFXSDWLRQDOVKLIWKDVH[HUWHGKHDY\WROORQPDULQHILVKHU\UHVRXUFHVRIWKHGHOWD2YHU
IHZ GHFDGHV WKH QXPEHU RI PDULQH ILVKFUDIWV DORQJ WKH 6LQGK FRDVW KDV H[SRQHQWLDOO\ LQFUHDVHGUHVXOWLQJ LQ DVKDUS GHFOLQH LQ ILVK FDWFK SHU FUDIW )LJ   +RZHYHU VLPLODU WUHQGVLQWKH DGMRLQLQJFRDVWRI%DOXFKLVWDQSURYLQFHDUHQRWDVVHYHUHDVLQ6LQGKSURYLQFH'HFOLQLQJILVKFDWFKKDVERRVWHG
DILHUFHFRPSHWLWLRQIRUOLPLWHGUHVRXUFHVUHVXOWLQJLQQHZFODLPVDQGGHVWUXFWLYHILVKLQJSUDFWLFHVLQ,6(5',-(5'±,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDODQG5XUDO'HYHORSPHQW  ±
WKHUHJLRQ,WZDVIUHTXHQWO\UHSRUWHGWKDWQRQHRIWKHFUHHNLQWKHGHOWDLVIUHHIURPWKHFODLPVRIFODQORUGVPRVWRIZKRPZHUHHLWKHUFDPHOKHUGHUVRUULFHFXOWLYDWRUVRULJLQDOO\ )LJ 7KHVHFODQORUGV
DUH HLWKHU GLUHFWO\ LQYROYHG LQ WKH XVDJH RI KDUPIXO ILVKLQJ QHWV ± ORFDOO\ QDPHG %KRROR *XMMR DQG
4DWURZLWKWKLQPHVKVL]HFDSDEOHRIFDWFKLQJHYHQMXYHQLOHILVK±RUFROOHFWDORWRILOOHJDOUR\DOW\
IURP ILVKHUPHQ 7KHVH KDUPIXO QHWV ZHUH LQWURGXFHG LQ WKH GHOWD DURXQG  \HDUV DJR E\ %HQJDOLRULJLQ ILVKHUPHQ ZKR KDG LOOHJDOO\ PLJUDWHG WKHUH DQG ZHUH VKHOWHUHG E\ WKH FODQ ORUGV LQ RUGHU WR
IXOILOOWKHLUYHVWHGLQWHUHVW&XUUHQWO\HYHQPDQ\ORFDOVDUHDOVRHQJDJHGLQVXFKLOOHJDOILVKLQJDFWLYLW\
7KHVXEVLVWHQFHILVKHUPHQFRQGHPQWKHVHSUDFWLFHVSULYDWHO\EXWFDQQRWVSHDNRXWSXEOLFO\EHFDXVHRIWKHDSSUHKHQVLRQRISURVHFXWLRQDQGWRUWXUHDWWKHKDQGVRIFODQORUGV/HJHQG1:(&ODLPVE\GLIIHUHQWFODQOHDGHUV$UHDFODLPHGE\0DONDQL-DWFODQOHDGHUV6$UHDFODLPHGE\RWKHU%DORFKFODLQOHDGHUV$UHDFODLPHGE\6KDKFODQOHDGHUV$UHDFODLPHGE\'XEEDL-DWFODQOHDGHUV$UHDFODLPHGE\-DPRWFODQOHDGHUV$UHDFODLPHGE\%DJ\DUFODQOHDGHUV )LJ0DULQHFUDIWVDQGILVKFDWFKSHU
FUDIWLQ6LQGKDQG%DOXFKLVWDQ6RXUFH0DULQH)LVKHULHV'HSDUWPHQWFLWHG

LQ::)±30,1)$/DQG

6KLUNDW*DK 






 .LORPHWHUV)LJ7HUULWRULDOFODLPVE\GLIIHUHQWFODQORUGVIRUFROOHFWLRQRIILVKLQJUR\DOW\IURPGLIIHUHQWSDUWVRIWKH,QGXVGHOWD 6RXUFHSUHSDUHGZLWKWKH
KHOSRIFRPPXQLWLHVGXULQJWKHILHOGVXUYH\ 

6RFLDOGUDZEDFNVRIRFFXSDWLRQDOFKDQJH
7KH)*'VXQIROGHGWKDWULFHFXOWLYDWRUVDQGFDPHOKHUGHUVZKRKDGLQLWLDOO\MRLQHGILVKLQJDVODERUHUV
VRRQHPHUJHGDVNH\DFWRUVDQGVXUSDVVHGWUDGLWLRQDOILVKHUPHQFRPPXQLWLHV$VDUHVXOWILVKHUPHQFRPPXQLWLHVVWDUWHGORVLQJWKHFKDUPRIWKHLULQWLPDF\7KHWUDGLWLRQDOILVKHUPHQFRPPXQLWLHVQHLWKHUH[SHFWHGQRUFRXOGDIIRUGVXFKDQHQFURDFKPHQWXSRQWKHLUWUDGLWLRQDOILVKLQJJURXQGV%HLQJDWORZHUVWUDWD LQ ORFDO HFRQRP\ WKH\ IRXQG WKHPVHOYHV LQHIIHFWLYH WR SURWHFW WKHLU KLVWRULFDO RFFXSDWLRQDOULJKWV 7KLV OHG WKHP WRZDUGV DQ H[WUHPH IUXVWUDWLRQ DQG KRSHOHVVQHVV $V D UHVXOW WKURXJKRXW WKHVDQGODWHVWKHPDMRULW\RIWKHWUDGLWLRQDOILVKHUPHQLQGXOJHGLQGUXJDGGLFWLRQUHJDUGOHVVRI
JHQGHU DQG DJH GLYLVLRQ SHUVRQDO FRPPXQLFDWLRQ ZLWK ORFDO FRPPXQLWLHV  7KRXJK UHFHQWO\ VXFKSUDFWLFHLVJUDGXDOO\GZLQGOLQJWKHORQJGUDZQIUXVWUDWLRQKDVOHGWKHVHFRPPXQLWLHVWRDEMHFWSRYHUW\DQGVRFLDOH[FOXVLRQ(YHQDQDwYHH\HFDQREVHUYHDUHODWLYHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHVRFLDOVWDWXVDQGGZHOOLQJVLQWHUPVRIIDFLOLWLHVHGXFDWLRQDODWWDLQPHQWKHDOWKK\JLHQHDQGRYHUDOOOLYLQJFRQGLWLRQVRIWKHWUDGLWLRQDODQGQHZO\FRQYHUWHGILVKHUPHQLQGLIIHUHQWVXEVHFWLRQVRI5HKUL*RWKDQG,EUDKLP+\GULDORQJ.DUDFKLFRDVW REVHUYDWLRQV $WSUHVHQWH[WUHPHVHQVHRIPXWXDODEKRUUHQFHLVSUHYDOHQWDPRQJGLIIHUHQWJURXSVUHVXOWLQJLQIUHTXHQWFRQIOLFWVLQHYHU\GD\LQWHUDFWLRQDPRQJWKHP )*'VDQG
LQWHUYLHZV 
7KHHPHUJLQJVRFLDOSUREOHPLQWKHGHOWDLVVPXJJOLQJDQGLOOHJDOWUDIILFNLQJDFWLYLWLHV )*'VDQG
LQWHUYLHZV 7KH\RXQJVWHUVUHPDLQSURQHWRMRLQVPXJJOHUVGXHWRTXLFNPRQH\WKDWFDQEHREWDLQHG
WKURXJK WKHVH LOOHJDO RSHUDWLRQV 5HJDUGOHVV RI WKH WUDGLWLRQDO RFFXSDWLRQDO DIILOLDWLRQ GHOWDLF
FRPPXQLWLHVOLYLQJDORQJWKHFRDVWDUHIDFLQJWKLVDVDFRPPRQSUREOHP,WZDVPRVWO\QDUUDWHGDVDQ
HIIHFWRIWKHGHFUHDVLQJTXDOLW\RIWKHILVKLQJRFFXSDWLRQDQGXQDYDLODELOLW\RIDOWHUQDWLYHHPSOR\PHQWRSSRUWXQLWLHVLQWKHDUHD )*'VDQG,QWHUYLHZV )XUWKHUPRUHWKHVHVPXJJOHUVDOVRXVHDGMDFHQWSRUWVIRUWKHODQGLQJLOOHJDOVWXIIDQGWKHUHE\FUHDWLQJSUREOHPVIRUQHDUE\YLOODJHV)RUH[DPSOHLQ
,6(5',-(5'±,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI(QYLURQPHQWDODQG5XUDO'HYHORSPHQW  ±
RQHRIWKHVWXG\YLOODJHVIDFHGDQDUP\DFWLRQDVWKHDGMDFHQWSRUWVZHUHEHLQJXVHGIRUVPXJJOLQJRIWKHLPSRUWHGOLTXRU7KHYLOODJHUVVKDUHGWKDWVRPHRIWKHLUQHLJKERUVZHUHLQYROYHGLQWKHDFWLYLW\:KHQDVNHGZK\QRWWKH\KDOWVXFKDFWLYLWLHVLQWKHLUYLFLQLWLHVWKHYLOODJHUVFOHDUO\WROGWKDWWKRXJKRIWHQWKH\UHVLVWEXWUDUHO\FDQWKH\VXFFHHGWRVWRSWKHVHDFWLYLWLHV7KHPDLQUHDVRQIRUVXFKDIDLOXUHZDV WKH UHEHOOLRQ DWWLWXGH RI \RXQJVWHUV WKDW LV HPHUJLQJ RXW IURP ORQJ GUDZQ KDUGVKLS LQ HDUQLQJOLYHOLKRRGV
&21&/86,216
7KHVWXG\DQDO\]HGWKHRFFXSDWLRQDOFKDQJHLQ,QGXVGHOWDDQGLWVVRFLDOLPSDFWVLQWKHSRVWLUULJDWLRQGHYHORSPHQWVFHQDULR,QVWXG\DUHDWKHULFHFXOWLYDWRUVIROORZHGE\FDPHOKHUGHUVZHUHWKHRQHVZKRILUVW H[SHULHQFHG WKH DGYHUVH LPSDFWV RI HFRORJLFDO LPEDODQFH 6XEVHTXHQW RFFXSDWLRQDOWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ RI ERWK ULFH FXOWLYDWRUV DQG FDPHO KHUGHUV SURYHG KDYRF IRU WUDGLWLRQDO ILVKLQJFRPPXQLWLHV+RZHYHULQWKHORQJUXQDOOWKUHHJURXSVDUHFRQIURQWHGZLWKYDULRXVRFFXSDWLRQDODQG
VRFLDO SUREOHPV 7KH ILQGLQJV UHYHDO WKDW WKH PDVVLYH LQIOX[ RI RFFXSDWLRQDO FKDQJH UHVXOWHG IURPKXPDQ LQGXFHG GLVDVWHUV FDQQRW EH DEVRUEHG E\ UHJLRQDO VXEVLVWHQFH HFRQRPLHV ,I VXFK D PDVVLYH
DEVRUSWLRQLVHYHQDWWHPSWHGLWFDQGHVWUR\WKHVRFLDOKDUPRQ\DQGLQWLPDF\DPRQJGLIIHUHQWHOHPHQWVRIWKHVRFLHW\6LQFHDOOJULHYDQFHVRIGHOWDLFFRPPXQLWLHVDUHWKHRXWFRPHVRIQDUURZO\IRFXVHGZDWHUSROLF\LQ3DNLVWDQLWLVWKHUHIRUHWKHGXW\RIWKHJRYHUQPHQWWRDVVXPHWKHUHVSRQVLELOLW\IRUPHQGLQJ
LW7KHEURDGSROLF\LQWHUYHQWLRQPLJKWLQFOXGHEXWVKRXOGQRWEHOLPLWHGWRWKHLQVWLWXWLRQDOUHIRUPVLQ
PDULQHILVKHULHVWKHSURYLVLRQRIDOWHUQDWLYHOLYHOLKRRGVIRUGHOWDLFFRPPXQLWLHVDQGFDUHIXOKDQGOLQJ
RIWKHIXUWKHUZDWHUVHFWRUGHYHORSPHQWLQWKHFRXQWU\
5()(5(1&(6'25  7KHXQSXEOLVKHGRIILFLDOUHSRUWRIWKH'LVWULFW2IILFHU 5HYHQXH 7KDWWDIXUQLVKHGLQUHVSRQVHWRSURYLQFLDODVVHPEO\TXHVWLRQ1R2IILFHOHWWHU1R'2 5HY ,%,GDWHG*LRVDQ / &RQVWDQWLQHVFX 6 &OLIW 3' 7DEUH] $5 'DQLVK 0 DQG ,QDP $   5HFHQW PRUSKRG\QDPLFVRIWKH,QGXVGHOWDVKRUHDQGVKHOI&RQWLQHQWDO6KHOI5HVHDUFK
+DPHHG 7   2SSRUWXQLWLHV DQG FKDOOHQJHV LQ WKH ZDWHU VHFWRU 3DNLVWDQ 'HYHORSPHQW )RUXP 
3UHVHQWDWLRQDVWKHFKDLUPDQ3DNLVWDQ:DWHUDQG3RZHU'HYHORSPHQW$XWKRULW\$SULO3DNLVWDQ+XJKHV:  $JD]HWWHHURIWKHSURYLQFHRI6LQGK*HRUJH%HOODQG6RQV/RQGRQ8.
,8&1  0DQJURYHVRI3DNLVWDQ6WDWXVDQGPDQDJHPHQW,8&13DNLVWDQ3DNLVWDQ.DPDO$  (QYLURQPHQWDOIORZV,QGXV5LYHUV\VWHPLQ3DNLVWDQUG,QW&RQIRQ:DWHU5HVRXUFHVDQG
$ULG(QYLURQPHQWVDQGWKHVW$UDE:DWHU)RUXP5L\DGK6DXGL$UELD
.UDYWVRYD 9, 0LNKDLORY 91 DQG (IUHPRYD 1$   9DULDWLRQV RI WKH K\GURORJLFDO UHJLPH
PRUSKRORJLFDOVWUXFWXUHDQGODQGVFDSHVRIWKH,QGXV5LYHU'HOWD 3DNLVWDQ XQGHUWKHHIIHFWRIODUJHVFDOHZDWHUPDQDJHPHQWPHDVXUHV:DWHU5HVRXUFHV  
0,1)$/   $JULFXOWXUDO VWDWLVWLFV RI 3DNLVWDQ  0LQLVWU\ RI )RRG $JULFXOWXUH DQG /LYHVWRFN
*RYHUQPHQWRI3DNLVWDQ3DNLVWDQ
0R)  3DNLVWDQHFRQRPLFVXUYH\DORQJZLWKVXSSOHPHQWDU\WDEOHV)LQDQFHGLYLVLRQHFRQRPLF
DGYLVHU¶VZLQJ0LQLVWU\RIILQDQFHDQGHFRQRPLFDIIDLUV*RYHUQPHQWRI3DNLVWDQ3DNLVWDQ5L]YL 0   )RUHFDVWLQJ ZDWHU IORZV LQ 3DNLVWDQ V ,QGXV 5LYHU 7KH LQWHUQDWLRQDO 'HYHORSPHQW 5HVHDUFK&HQWUHKWWSZZZLGUFFDHQHY'2B723,&KWPO
6KDK $$ .DVDZDQL , DQG .DPDUX]DPDQ -   'HJUDGDWLRQ RI ,QGXV 'HOWD PDQJURYHV LQ 3DNLVWDQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI*HRORJ\  
6KLUNDW *DK   3URPRWLQJ VXVWDLQDEOH OLYHOLKRRGV IRU FRDVWDO ILVKHUIRON $Q DJHQGD IRU DGYRFDF\ 6KLUNDW*DK.DUDFKL3DNLVWDQ
7&:5   5HSRUW RI WKH 7HFKQLFDO &RPPLWWHH RQ :DWHU 5HVRXUFHV 7&:5  *RYHUQPHQW RI 3DNLVWDQ
3DNLVWDQ
:$3'$        ,QGXV EDVLQ LUULJDWLRQ V\VWHP KLVWRULF ULYHUV DQG FDQDOVGLVFKDUJHGDWD:DWHUDQG3RZHU'HYHORSPHQW$XWKRULW\RI3DNLVWDQ,%3SXEOLFDWLRQQR
DQGUHVSHFWLYHO\3DNLVWDQ::)3  'HWDLOHGHFRORJLFDODVVHVVPHQWRIIDXQDLQFOXGLQJOLPQRORJ\VWXGLHVDW.HWLEDQGDU,QGXVIRUDOOSURJUDPPH::)3DNLVWDQ3DNLVWDQ
,6(5'