IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

4P1_4D-O21

Room A6

Date/Time: July 24 16:30-16:45

The next-generation real-time volcanic hazard assessment system in G-EVER
Shinji Takarada
G-EVER Promotion Team, Geological Survey of Japan, AIST, Japan
E-mail: s-takarada@aist.go.jp

The Asia-Pacific Region Global Earthquake and Volcanic Eruption Risk Management (G-EVER) Consortium
among the Asia-Pacific geohazard research institutes was established in 2012. There are currently 4 working
groups that were proposed in the G-EVER Consortium. The next-generation volcano hazard assessment WG isplanning to provide a useful system for volcanic eruption prediction, risk assessment, and evacuation schemes atvarious eruption stages. The assessment system is planned to be developed based on volcanic eruption scenario
datasets, volcanic eruption database and numerical simulations. Defining volcanic eruption scenarios based on
precursor phenomena leading up to major eruptions of active volcanoes is quite important for the prediction offuture eruptions. A high quality volcanic eruption database, which contains compilations of eruption dates, volumes
and styles is important for the next-generation volcano hazard assessment system. Formulating international
standards on how to estimate the volume of volcanic products (eg. tephra and pyroclastic flow deposits) is neededin making high quality volcanic eruption database. Spatial distribution database of volcanic products (eg. tephra anddebris avalanche distributions) that are encoded on Geographic Information System (GIS) is necessarily for more
precise area and volume estimation and risk assessments. For example, tephra fall distribution database of major
eruptions in the world with estimated total volume, column height and flux are important for the future tephra fall risk
assessment during volcanic eruptions. The volcanic eruption database is developed based on past eruption results,
which only represent a subset of future scenarios. Therefore, numerical simulations with controlled parameters areneeded for more precise volcanic eruption predictions. The "best-fit" parameters of the past major large-scaleeruptions in the world have to be estimated and the simulation results database should be made. Using thesebest-fit parameters is quite useful for emergency situation especially when similar-style eruptions happened before.
The use of the next-generation system should enable the visualization of past volcanic eruptions datasets suchas distributions, eruption volumes and eruption rates, on maps and diagrams using timeline and GIS technology.
Similar volcanic eruptions scenarios should be easily searchable from the eruption database. Using the volcano
hazard assessment system, prediction of the time and area that would be affected by volcanic eruptions at anylocations near the volcano would be possible, using numerical simulations. The system should estimate volcanic
hazard risks by overlaying the distributions of volcanic deposits on major roads, houses and evacuation areasusing a GIS enabled system. The next-generation real-time hazard assessment system would be implemented
with user-friendly interface, making the risk assessment system easily usable and accessible online.

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