IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

4A2_3E-O10

Room A1

Date/Time: July 24 11:15-11:30

Determination and evolution of source parameters in volcanic eruptions; theFUTUREVOLC supersite approach
Magnus T Gudmundsson1 , Halldor Bjornsson2 , Maurizio Ripepe3 , Frank S Marzano4 , Bo Galle5 , Bernd
Zimanowski6 , Arve Killing7 , Thomas R Walter8 , Costanza Bonadonna9 , Jeremy Phillips10 , Alessandro
Aiuppa11 , Fred Prata12 , Errico Picciotti13 , Emanuele Marchetti14 , Olgeir Sigmarsson15
1Nordvulk, Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland, Iceland, 2 Icelandic Meteorological Office,Iceland, 3 University of Florence, Italy, 4 CETEMPS, University L’Aquila, Italy, 5 Chalmers University,Sweden, 6 Universty of Wuerzburg, Germany, 7 NILU-Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Norway,
8GFZ, Germany, 9 University of Geneva, Switzerland, 10 University of Bristol, UK, 11 University of Palermo,Italy, 12 Nicarnica, Norway, 13 HIMET, Italy, 14 iTEM, Italy, 15 University Blaise Pascal, France
E-mail: mtg@hi.is

Recent explosive eruptions in Iceland and South America have highlighted the need for reliable near real time
estimates of eruption rates. At present the method most frequently used for all but the smallest events, is applying
the theoretically and empirically derived relations between eruption plume height and mass eruption rate; oftenusing weather radar data to derive plume heights. In recent years several new methods have been developed thatprovide independent estimates of volumetric flow rate, plume particle concentrations, exit velocities, electric field
generation, gas fluxes, lightning intensity in eruption clouds as well as satellite based methods for plume tracking
and atmospheric mass loading. Each method has its strengths and drawbacks. By combining measurementsof the all the above parameters into a single system, a much more reliable estimate of eruption rate should beobtained. The compilation of such a system is one of the aims of FUTUREVOLC, a European collaborative
project funded through the EU FP7 Environment call encompassing 26 partners in 10 European countries. Themain objectives of FUTUREVOLC are to establish an integrated volcanological monitoring procedure, develop
new methods to evaluate volcanic crises, increase scientific understanding of magmatic processes and improvedelivery of relevant information to civil protection and authorities. FUTUREVOLC is a supersite project, where
Iceland has been selected as the target area. In its comprehensive approach to the study of volcanic phenomena,
subsurface magma tracking is combined with physical volcanology and atmospheric science. The integrated systemfor estimation of eruption source parameters will be composed of arrays of sensors that are already in place will be
set up in the summer of 2013. The components of the monitoring system include continuously recording real time
devices: two C-band weather radars, two mobile X-band radars, radiosondes for ambient atmosphere monitoring,
infrasound arrays, arrays of time lapse cameras, electric field sensors, automated tephra samplers and analysers,
gas monitoring systems and lightning detection systems. The signals from these systems will be supplemented byaircraft observations and the deployment of a mobile field lab for rapid characterization of tephra. The data from allthese sources will be fed into an integrated near real-time system that will evaluate the eruption rate. New algorithms
for analysis of radar backscatter and both physics-based and empirical plume models will be implemented as a partof the system. Various data from previous eruptions, including ground truth information, will be used to calibrate
the system, which is expected to be operational in 2016.

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