Automotive
Industry
ReportSPRING 2024

Learn moreIndustry Highlights
Overview
Globally, auto sales in 2024 are forecast to grow modestly compared to 2023. Despite a slowdown in growth, sales volumes in 2024 are expected tosurpass 92 million units and reach the highest levels since 2018.1 Vehicle production is expected to decline slightly into 2024 due to a faster-than-expected
inventory restocking and a more difficult consumer demand environment.2
In 2023, global vehicle sales rose 10.9% as supply chain issues eased worldwide. Production returned to normal levels and inventories were restocked.1 In
the U.S., light vehicle sales increased 13.1% year-over-year (YoY) to 15.5 million units in 2023.3 U.S. vehicle sales are expected to grow to 15.9 million units
in 2024, the highest level since 2019.2
Chinese auto sales rose to 30.1 million units in 2023, up 11.9% from 2022.4 China continues to dominate the electrified vehicle (EV) market, as over 35% of
new vehicles sold in 2023 were EVs. Yearly EV market share is expected to surpass 50% by 2026.5
In Europe, sales in 2023 rebounded off a record-low 2022,3 led by Western and Central European Markets.2 The four largest European markets (Germany,
France, Italy and Spain) all saw increases in new passenger registrations, with France, Italy, and Spain each growing over 16%.6
M&A activity in the automotive sector experienced a significant decline in 2023, reaching the lowest number of transactions closed in the last decade. The
number of transactions through the first quarter of 2024 was down 35% YoY.7
Public company equity performance in most selected automotive indexes trended upward in the first quarter of 2023, although the Electric Vehicles index
underperformed other groups and the overall market.72

Global Light Vehicle Sales Grew
11% from 2022 to 20231
Global Auto Sales Expected to Grow
Modestly in 20241

Executive Summary

U.S. Electric Vehicle Market Share
Hit New Highs in 2023, but
Momentum Has Slowed8
Automotive Partnerships with
eVTOLs Expected to Start Service in
Coming Years9
Automotive M&A Activity in 2023
Fell to a 10 year Low7

3

Global Auto Sales Trends
2023 in Review and Future Expectations
In 2023, global vehicle sales grew almost 11% YoY.1 As supply chain issues eased, especially related to computer chips, auto production returned to normal levels globallyand inventories were restocked across many regions.3
Global car sales increased to nearly 90 million units in 2023, up from 81 million in 2022 and the highest level seen since 2019. China, the largest market in the world, grewconsiderably at 12%.4 The U.S. rebounded after a poor 2022 with a 13% increase in sales. India remained the third largest single-country car market with 8% growth and4.1 million units sold. Sales in Europe grew after four years of decline. Japan was close behind with nearly 16% growth and 4.0 million units sold.3 Volumes in Mexico
continued to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and supply chain issues as the country became the fastest growing large car market in the world, surpassing 1.3 million
units sold and a 24% growth rate compared to 2022.10
Globally, vehicle sales are projected to increase between 2.5% and 3.0% in 2024, followed by another year of projected modest growth of around 2.0% to 2.5% in 2025.1,2

Annual Global Vehicle Sales
95.3

94.3

90.2
77.8

80.0
Units in Millions

89.8
81.5

92.2

94.2

81.0

15%

Brand

Bestselling Vehicle

Brand % of 2023
Market Share

2022
Rank

10%

1.

Toyota Corolla

10.7%

1

2.

Volkswagen Tiguan

6.0%

2

-5%

3.

Honda CR-V

4.6%

3

-10%

4.

Hyundai Tucson

4.5%

4

5.

Ford F-Series

4.4%

10

5%

60.0

0%
40.0

20.0

0.0

-15%
2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

Units
Sources:“Global car market to hit the speed bumps in 2024.” ING. February 23, 2023.

2022

2023

2024F 2025F

Growth100.02023 Global Bestselling Brands

GrowthSources:“New Tiguan Generation: Volkswagen’s Bestseller Celebrates World Premiere in Front of 10,000 Employees.” VW Newsroom. September 19, 2023.
“World Best Selling Car Ranking 2023.” Focus2Move. January 5, 2023.
“World Best Selling Car Brands in 2023.” Focus2Move. February 25, 2023.
All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners.

42024 Global Automotive Outlook
2023 in Review and Future Expectations
In 2024, global vehicle sales are expected to grow modestly due to a recovering supply chain and pent-up demand. Those sales expectations are tempered by elevatedvehicle pricing and tough lending conditions. Production in 2024 is expected to remain flat as many geographies have reached inventory equilibrium following atumultuous few years.2
United States: Vehicle sales in the U.S. are expected to grow at a moderate pace to 15.9 million units in 2024, up from 15.5 million units in 2023. 15.9 million units
would be the highest annual count since 2019. High interest rates (see chart below) and tight credit conditions, as well as higher sticker prices, are expected tonegatively impact sales estimates. Production is expected to continue to grow, leading to higher inventories and the possibility for increased sales incentives. The
number of battery electric vehicle (BEV) models available is expected to cross 100 in 2024, offering customers more choices across segments and price points.2
China: The 2024 market is expected to see another year of strong growth, with light vehicle sales expected to grow 4.2%. Sales increases are expected to besupported by improving consumer confidence and the continued pent-up demand from pandemic lockdowns. Electrified vehicle (EV) sales are expected to further
increase in 2024 as battery prices continue to fall and China’s EV tax exemption is extended. EV market share is expected to reach 44% for the full year.2

9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%

Sources:
FRED

Nov-23May-23

Nov-22

May-22

Nov-21

May-21

Nov-20May-20Nov-19

May-19

Nov-18May-18

Nov-17May-17

Nov-16May-16

Nov-15May-15

Nov-140.0%
May-14

Electrified Vehicles: Globally, electrified vehicle sales are expected to increase by nearly
40% to 13.3 million units in 2024. BEV market share is expected to rise to an estimated
16.2%, up from 2023 market share of 12.0%. China is once again expected to be the world
leader in BEV sales, but geographies like Europe and India are expected to have more
growth.2 As shown on the next page, the U.S. EV market is expected to grow significantly
in 2024, albeit less than previously expected.11,12

Average Rate on 48 Month New U.S. Auto Loans

Nov-13

Europe: 2024 vehicle sales are forecasted at 15.1 million units, up 2.9% from 14.7 million
units in 2023. While improving inventory levels are expected to boost sales, recession
worries, credit conditions, ending of EV subsidies, and high car prices may moderate thatgrowth. Vehicle production in Europe is estimated to fall 1.8% in 2024, as growing imports
from China and already-higher inventory levels are expected to temper manufacturinglevels.25United States Electrified Vehicle Update2023 in Review and 2024 Expectations
Electrified vehicle sales hit an all-time high in the U.S. in 2023, with over 1.1 million BEVs sold. That represents a staggering 53%
increase over 2022 BEV sales. Counting HEVs and PHEVs, total EV sales also increased by over 50% in 2023. Despite the record
sales numbers, underlying trends could signal the start of a slowdown. Q4 2023 BEV sales were the slowest growing quarter since2020, and the first two months of 2024 saw declining month over month (MoM) BEV sales.8 Additionally, EV inventories are
increasing–114 days of supply in December 2023, up from 53 days in 2022 and markedly higher than 71 days for the overall auto
industry.13

EV = Electrified Vehicles
BEV =Battery
Electric
VehicleHEV =HybridElectric
VehicleHigh Prices: The average EV sells for about $51,000. That is down from over $66,000 over a year ago but is still more expensive
than the average for all vehicles. Generally, most EVs are higher priced, with 78% in the premium category.14 By December 2023,
only two models could be purchased for under $40,000: the Chevy Bolt and Nissan Leaf.15 Additionally, while EV drivers
save in gas costs, they generally pay more for insurance and installation of at-home chargers.
All in, the average cost of owning an EV over the first five years is $65,000 compared with
Gas Prices vs EV Market Penetration in the United States
the average gas vehicle at under $57,000.16

Outlook: 2024 has not seen a great start for the EV market. Ford and GM have cut
production of their EV trucks, other manufacturers have reduced their EV sales projections,and Tesla has warned of slower growth this year.12 Despite these announcements, experts
still expect EV sales to grow substantially in 2024, with average projected sales growth ofover 40%.112024 Projections
2023

AutoPacific

Cox Auto

S&P Global Mobility

BEV Sales (millions)

1.13

1.45

1.57

1.75

BEV Market Share

7.3%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

Sources:
Inside Climate News

$5.00

20.00%$4.00

16.00%$3.00

12.00%

$2.00

8.00%

$1.00

4.00%

$0.00

0.00%
Feb-18May-18Aug-18
Nov-18
Feb-19
May-19Aug-19
Nov-19Feb-20May-20Aug-20Nov-20Feb-21
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Feb-22
May-22Aug-22
Nov-22
Feb-23May-23Aug-23
Nov-23
Feb-24

Battery Range and Charging Stations: On top of high prices, 77% of consumers worry
about lack of charging stations and 73% stress about battery life.16 This “range anxiety”
persists even though 93% of U.S. trips were less than 30 miles and U.S. drivers travel only
40 miles per day on average.17

PHEV =
Plug-In
HybridElectric
VehicleRetail Gasoline Prices

BEV Monthly Market ShareEV Monthly Market Share

Sources:Argonne National Laboratory
U.S. Energy Information Administration

6

Autonomous Technology Developments
2023 in Review and Future Expectations
Although leading players in the autonomous vehicle (AV) industry were able to effectively run and expand first commercial operations, and increase funding in 2023,
many other companies saw significant setbacks, stopped operations, or exited the market entirely. Below are the key takeaways from the AV industry in 2023 as wellas its future potential in 2024 and beyond:Players Expect Regional and Market Consolidation:
 Market players and industry experts believe that three or fewer companies will capture a dominant share of the market in the coming years. The North American market is expected to have the most
players, while in contrast, many experts believe the European market will be dominated by two or fewer players.
 Although there has been an increase in development and interest in autonomous technology in the auto industry, no company has yet been able to fully reach large-scale commercialization. Someestimates still expect autonomous driving systems with no safety driver in the vehicle could still take up to 10 more years. Expansion of AVs will likely be gradual and on a region-by-region basis.
One example of a company adopting a smaller-scale commercialization would be Waymo One, which offers fully autonomous rides in Phoenix, Arizona.

Timeline for Autonomous Vehicle Adoption Is Extending: The timeline for adoption of AVs is believed to have slipped by two to three years on average across all autonomy levels. According to a new survey conducted by McKinsey & Company, L4 robotaxis are now expected to be commercially available in 2030 and fully autonomous trucking by 2028-2031. AV regulations and regulatory challenges have become obstacles for advancement.

Regulation, Technology, & Consumer Safety = Bottlenecks:
 Industry players believe regulation is the biggest bottleneck to the autonomous industry. However, this year these players reported an increased focus on a need for investment in technology.
Continued consumer adoption of AVs is also a major concern, with over 66% of leaders pointing to improved safety as a key consideration for consumers. The ability to multitask and do work whiledriving are considered a secondary consideration.

Increased Investments in Software Needed to Achieve Full Autonomy:
 It is now understood that a significant increase in investment is needed to fully reach L4 and higher levels of autonomy until first commercial launch. Software development will be the major driverof this much-needed investment. Software development and enhancements will have a critical role in pushing technology forward and displaying AVs’ overall safety.
 Software is expected to require a significant investment, but it is also expected to be the most profitable of the technology elements for AVs, at around 15% for average margins.

Expect Industry Leaders to Experiment with New Monetization Models: As more advanced AVs appear, many industry experts believe new go-to-market models will likely be implemented. Established AV players mainly stick to pay-per-use models, however start-ups
and smaller companies prefer subscription models. Industry leaders are also considering pay-per-mile and per-trip models.

Sources:“Autonomous vehicles moving forward: Perspectives from industry leaders.” McKinsey & Company. January 5, 2024.
Hawkins, Andrew J. “Dude, where’s my self-driving car?” The Verge. February 14, 2024.
“Which Trends are driving the autonomous vehicle industry?” World Economic Forum. November 8, 2021.

7

Mobility Technology & Applied AI
2023 in Review and Future Expectations

The mobility sector has gone under rapid transformation over the past few years due mostly in part to the growth in EVs, autonomous driving, and other technologicalinnovations. A survey done by McKinsey & Company on the mobility sector analyzed and identified the top 10 transformative technologies in the mobility sector andwhether companies were already implementing or planned to implement these technologies in the near term. Most of these businesses are focused on innovation andinvestment related to applied AI systems. Disruptions in the industry are on the horizon for the mobility sector as it is a rapidly changing ecosystem with new
innovations being created on a frequent basis. Companies that focus on the top ten transformative technologies influencing the mobility sector can disrupt the industry
with new emerging products and services that transform vehicles, provide consumers with new options, and improve revenue streams.
Innovation by Region: In the sample used by McKinsey & Company, companies based in the U.S. are far more likely to report that they are working on one or more of the
top five tech trends mentioned in the exhibit below. As an example, 33% of companies working on applied AI are based in the U.S.
 Continued disruptions in the market (e.g., the recent semiconductor shortage) have dramatically accelerated several underlying technologicaladvancements in the auto industry.

Applied AI and Transformative Impact: Applied AI was examined to be the most popular technology trend of the ten transformative trends listed in the exhibit to the right. This technology
is set to disrupt multiple aspects of the mobility industry.
 Prominence of Applied AI within the mobility industry enhances numerous processes, enables automation, and addresses long-standing
issues/problems. Following are a few examples:1.

Engineering and R&D: Some companies use Applied AI to create and control virtual worlds in which they can “train” specific algorithms that enable
autonomous driving. AI algorithms can identify weaknesses in current structures and models, as well as run millions of additional scenarios for use in testing.

2.

Procurement: Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are using Applied AI to identify environmental, social and governance risks along the supply chain.
Algorithms can analyze news items about key-specific suppliers to identify potential problems, such as history with corruption, scandals or anything else,much more quickly and efficiently than any human.

3.

Manufacturing: Using Applied AI in tandem with vision cameras, lidar, and radar, OEM’s have been able to improve quality control during manufacturing. For
example, a leading automotive manufacturer is using AI-controlled robots to maintain individual vehicle processing and quality standards. AI-infused cameras
have led to manufacturers being able to scan and identify even the most minor variations even in reflective paintwork.

4.

Marketing and Sales: Companies utilize Applied AI to identify customers who might be at risk of choosing another competitor and then create incentives toincrease their satisfaction instantly, potentially increasing customer retention and decreasing costs.

5.

Life Cycle Services: OEMs that incorporate Applied AI into vehicle production and onboarding systems can analyze their customers’ information andpreferences and then make personalized recommendations or enhancements.

Sources:“What technology trends are shaping the mobility sector?” McKinsey & Company. February 14, 2024.
“The future of automotive mobility to 2035.” Deloitte. February 16, 2023.
Cubiss, Jay. “The Future of Automotive and Mobility.” Forbes. May 5, 2021.

Top 10 Transformative Tech Trends
in the Mobility Sector
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

Advanced Connectivity
Applied AI
Cloud and Edge Computing
Generative AI
Immersive-Reality Tech
Industrialization of Machine Learning
Next-Generation Software Development
Quantum Tech
Trust Architecture and Digital-Identity Tools
Web3

Top Five Tech Trends that Companies
in the Mobility Industry Are Most
Likely to Invest In
7.7%

Applied AI

5.1%

Advanced
Connectivity
13.2%
16.4%

57.6%

Cloud and Edge
Computing
Web3
Immersive-Reality
Tech8

Air Mobility Update and Select Partnerships
2023 in Review and Future Expectations
The auto industry is rapidly changing and many of the biggest companies in this sector are hoping to diversify their portfolios beyond just ground vehicles. Many companies
like Hyundai, Toyota, Stellantis and Mercedez-Benz have all invested in air mobility start-ups that could see takeoff in the near future. Electric vertical takeoff and landing
aircraft (eVTOL) could be manufactured in the thousands at already established auto plants and factories. The hope is to allow a new form of transportation for commuters,
while also decongesting current highway systems. The eVTOL industry is currently valued at $8.8 billion and is expected to grow at an annual rate of 20% to $37.2 billion by
2030.
Hyundai and Supernal:
 Supernal is a wholly-owned subsidiary ofHyundai.
 Aircraft: V-tailed, tilt-rotor S-A2 aircraft.
Plan to select a manufacturing site in the
U.S.
 Expected to get certification for theaircraft’s airworthiness through the FAA
this year.
 Plans to launch service in 2028, with S-A2
prototype ready for flight tests in 2024
and preproduction testing in 2026-2027.
 Los Angeles is likely target for firstrollouts, however, no official routes
disclosed yet.

Toyota and Joby:

Stellantis and Archer: Toyota invested around $400 million in
Joby. In April 2023, Toyota signed longterm agreement to supply key
components, such as powertrains, to Joby.

 A manufacturing-oriented partnership
between auto maker Stellantis and Archer
Aviation, one of the leading eVTOL startups.

 Joby plans to open a factory capable ofmanufacturing 500 aircraft a year in
Dayton, Ohio, later this year.

 Construction on a factory in Covington,
Georgia, is currently underway. Expected
to begin production in mid-2024 and be
capable of eventually producing 650
aircraft per year with space to expand toaround 2,300 aircraft per year.

 Toyota helped Joby set up first production
line in Marina, California.
 New York City has been eyed as thepotential first destination for rollouts.

 Archer secured a $215 million investment
from Stellantis, Boeing and United
Airlines. Stellantis currently owns morethan 38 million shares of Archer stock.
 Goal is to start service by 2025 in Chicago.

Mercedes-Benz / Geely and Volocopter: In 2017, Volocopter raised $780.6 million,
which included a $30 million investment
from Merceds-Benz.
 Volocopter has tested aircraft in major
markets all around the world including,most recently, New York and Tampa as ofNovember 2023.
 Commercial Service expected in thesummer of 2024 specifically for Paris intime for the Paris Olympic Games.
 Service would start with the “VoloCity”
two-passenger aircraft and eventuallyplan to expand to larger passenger
vehicles as well as drones to carry cargo.

Source:Bigelow, Pete. “Air mobility meets autos: Stellantis, Toyota, Hyundai bring manufacturing muscle to new market.” Automotive News. January 30, 2024.
Note: All trademarks, trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners

9North American Auto Sales Trends
Automotive Landscape by Geography
In 2023, U.S. new light-vehicle sales hit 15.5 million units. This is a 13.1% increase from 2022 and is the highest sales total since 2019,3 but still over 1.8 million units
lower than the 2015-2019 pre-pandemic average. Despite a United Auto Workers strike that disrupted production, 2023 was a surprisingly strong year for U.S. auto
sales, as the new vehicle market was bolstered by increased deliveries, improved supply, and higher dealer incentives. New vehicle inventory continued to build throughthe end of the year, with inventory volume at 2.6 million, an increase of nearly 55% compared to one year ago. Days’ supply also grew from 60 days at the end of 2022
to 71 by December 2023.18
2024 forecasted sales in the U.S. are expected to grow modestly to 15.9 million.2 Despite normalizing supply conditions to end of 2023, experts believe that highvehicle prices and elevated interest rates will keep vehicle sales modest in 2024.18 Rising incentive levels may help vehicle affordability in 2024 if production andinventory levels continue to grow.2
By category, pickup trucks dominated the U.S. market once again with the top three selling vehicles in 2023.19 BEVs, however, were the fastest growing category.
BEVs increased from a 5.4% U.S. market share in 2022 to 7.3% in 2023, with 1.1 million units sold. Including HEVs and PHEVs, the total electrified vehicle market
share in the U.S. was 16.8%.8Yearly U.S. Vehicle Sales
20.0
18.0

Units in Millions

16.0
14.0

15.5

16.4

2023 U.S. Bestselling Vehicles
Model

17.4 17.5 17.2 17.3 17.0
14.7 15.0

Make

Units Sold

ChangeFrom 2022

15.5 15.9
13.7

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Sources:“US Auto Industry Sales Analysis.” GoodCarBadCar. March 2024.
Bekker, Henk. “2023 (Full Year) International: Worldwide Car Sales.” Best-Selling-Cars. January 19, 2024.
“S&P Global Mobility Forecasts 88.3M Auto Sales in 2024.” S&P Global. December 14, 2023.

1.

Ford F-Series

750,78914.8%

2.

Chevrolet Silverado

555,148

6.6%

3.

Ram Pickup

444,927-5.0%

4.

Toyota RAV4

434,943

18.6%

5.

Honda CRV

361,457

51.8%

Sources:“2023 U.S. Auto Sales Figures – By Model.” Good Car Bad Car. March 2024.
All trademarks, trade names, or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners.

10Chinese Automotive Landscape
Automotive Landscape by Geography
Chinese automotive sales in 2023 increased to a record 30.1 million vehicles, up 12% from 2022. Much of the increase came in commercial vehicle sales, up 22% to 4.0
million for the year as commercial sales continued to recover from COVID-19 lows. Aggressive promotional campaigns and steep discounts led to the increased
domestic consumption. Exports rose 58%, as sales to Russia increased after many other car manufacturers withdrew from the market following the Russia-Ukraine
war.4
January 2024 saw reduced sales volumes as dealers pulled back on their year-end discounts. February sales are also expected to be light as dealers shut down for the
Chinese New Year holiday.20 Despite a slow start to 2024, sales are expected to increase this year with further post-COVID consumer confidence increases, and as EVs
continue to become more affordable with falling battery prices and EV tax exemptions.2
BYD topped Volkswagen to become China’s top-selling car brand in 2023, driven by their dominant electrified vehicle market share. In the last quarter of 2023, BYD
surpassed Tesla as the largest global seller of EVs.21 EV monthly market share topped 40% for first time in November 2023. Despite a drop in EV market share to start
2024, monthly share is expected to cross the 50% threshold before the end of the year.5

Chinese Monthly Auto Sales
3.50

45.0%
40.0%

3.00

Vehicles in Millions

30.0%

2.00

25.0%

1.50

20.0%
15.0%

1.00

10.0%
0.50

EV Monthly Market Share

35.0%
2.50

5.0%

0.00

0.0%

Monthly Vehicle Sales

4-Month Moving Average

EV Monthly Market Share

Sources:
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
Clean Technica

11European Automotive Landscape
Automotive Landscape by Geography

In 2023, car registrations were up 13.8% in the EU, EFTA and UK combined compared to 2022, with most major markets experiencing significant registration growth.
The four largest markets of Germany, France, Italy and Spain grew 7.3%, 16.1%, 18.9% and 16.7%, respectively. Much of the increase was attributed to increased
production due to easing of supply chain issues. Elsewhere in Europe, the UK grew 17.9% and Turkey grew an astonishing 63.2% to nearly 1 million registrations in
2023. Russia and Ukraine both experienced some recovery after a poor 2022. Despite a strong year overall, December registrations actually declined YoY, the firstdecrease in 16 months.6
The EV market in the EU grew substantially in 2023. BEV volume grew 37% in 2023 to over 1.5 million units registered for the year. For the EU+EFTA+UK, market
share of BEVs grew to 15.7%, up from 13.9% in 2022. Including HEVs and PHEVs, market share of all EVs reached 49.8% in 2023.6
Looking forward to 2024, European vehicle sales are expected to grow modestly, around 3%.2 While improved production and better inventory helped grow vehicle
sales in 2023, consumers are expected to face headwinds in 2024. Similar to North America, higher interest rates, inflation, elevated vehicle prices, and political andeconomic risks are expected to temper vehicle sale expectations for 2024.2,22

European Monthly Auto Registrations
30.0%

26.2%

1,200
16.1%
900

10.7%

18.2%

18.7%

2.6%

20.7%
20.0%

16.7%

14.1%

12.3%

11.1%
10.0%

6.0%
600
-3.8%

300

0

0.0%

7.7%
Year Over Year Growth

New Registrations in Thousands

1,5002023 New Car Fuel Types

Gasoline
15.7%

35.7%

DieselHybid ElectricBattery Electric
Plug-In Hybrid

26.4%

11.9%

Other

-10.0%
Jan

Feb

2021 Registrations

Mar

Apr

May

2022 Registrations

Jun

Jul

Aug

2023 Registrations

Sep

Oct

Nov

2024 Registrations

Dec
2023 YoY Growth

Source: The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA)
Note: Monthly registrations represent new passenger car registrations in the European Union (EU), European Free Trade Association (EFTA), and the United Kingdom (UK)12

Public Company Equity Performance
Public Company Trading Statistics
Over the past two years, the automotive indexes varied significantly in performance. Automotive Mobility rose 59.7%, driven largely by increases in ride-sharing
companies since the third quarter of last year. The Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair, Automotive Dealers, and Automotive OEMs indices ended the two-year
period up 43.6%, 26.5% and 19.2%, respectively. Automotive Suppliers underperformed the S&P 500, decreasing by 2.5%. The Electric Vehicles index declined 53.4%
due to significant stock declines at Tesla, Rivian and Lucid.7
In the YTD period ended March 31, 2024, the Automotive Mobility index was the largest gainer, up 25.0%. Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair was up 21.4%
and Automotive OEMs was up 19.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 gain of 10.8% during that same time period. The Automotive Suppliers and Automotive Dealers
indices increased slightly, while the Electric Vehicles index declined nearly 30% as each company in the index has declined over 25% YTD.7

Last Two Years Equity Market Performance

YTD 2024 Equity Market Performance

80.0%

40.0%

60.0%

59.7%

40.0%

43.6%

20.0%

26.5%
19.2%
20.1%

0.0%

30.0%

(2.5%)

20.0%

25.0%
21.4%
19.5%

10.0%

10.8%

0.0%

3.9%
0.9%

-20.0%-10.0%-40.0%-20.0%(53.4%)-60.0%-80.0%
Mar-22Jun-22
S&P 500

Sep-22

Dec-22Mar-23Jun-23

Automotive Aftermarket Parts and Repair

Sep-23

Dec-23

Automotive Suppliers(29.7%)-30.0%-40.0%
1-Jan-24

Automotive Mobility

16-Jan-24

31-Jan-24

Automotive OEMs

15-Feb-24
Automotive Dealers

1-Mar-24

16-Mar-24

Electric Vehicles

Note: Represents the most actively traded public automotive sector companies
Source: S&P Capital IQ as of March 31, 2024

13

Historical Trading Multiples
Public Company Trading Statistics
The Automotive OEMs are trading at 6.1x LTM EPS, down over 4.0x from their five-year median price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 10.3x. The Automotive Aftermarket
Index is currently trading in line with their five-year median EV/EBITDA multiple. Historically, the Aftermarket Index has consistently traded around 11.0x to 15.0x
EV/EBITDA. Automotive Dealer multiples have increased in the last year, currently trading at 7.0x, up from 5.0x in 2022. Automotive Suppliers are trading below theirfive-year median multiple of 6.1x.7

Historical P/E Multiples Since 2019

Historical EBITDA Multiples Since 2019

20.0x

20.0x
5-Year Median: 13.1x

16.0x

16.0x
13.3x

12.0x

10.6x

14.8x

15.1x

5-Year Median: 10.3x
12.0x

10.3x
8.5x

8.0x

11.3x

13.1x13.5x
12.3x

5-Year Median: 6.6x
5-Year Median: 6.1x
8.6x

8.1x

8.0x

6.1x

6.6x 7.0x

6.7x
5.3x 5.0x

4.0x

4.0x

0.0x

0.0x
Automotive Aftermarket

Automotive OEMs
FY2019FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

Automotive Dealers

8.1x
5.4x

6.9x

6.1x

5.4x 5.2x

Automotive Suppliers

LTM as of 3/31/24

Note: Multiples have been adjusted historically to reflect corresponding adjustments made in the Automotive Valuation Deck on pages 3-7
Source: S&P Capital IQ as of March 31, 2024, and company filings

14

Historical M&A Activity by Quarter
M&A Activity
Quarterly M&A activity in the automotive sector has declined over the last two years. As interest rates increased throughout 2022 and 2023, volume fell from 29 deals
closed in Q1 2022 to only 11 in Q1 2024.
On a yearly basis, deal activity slowed in 2020 due to concerns from COVID-19, but volume bounced back in 2021 and the first half of 2022. In 2023, volume fell to
only 60 transactions closed, the lowest total in the last decade.7

Automotive Industry Quarterly M&A

Automotive Industry Yearly M&A

35

140
30

30
25
20

24

23

23

22

21

24

22

11

12

120
24

100
19

18

15

122

29

14

16

17

75

80

17
12

88

14
11

81

88

60

60

10

40

5

20

0

0

11

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023 Q1 2024

Note: All transactions with available target financials closed in the respective time period
Source: S&P Capital IQ

15

Notable Industry M&A Transactions
M&A Activity

has been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byImpero Jersey Corp.
Ltd.

Mar. 2024

Feb. 2024

Dec. 2023

Dec. 2023

Oct. 2023

Oct. 2023

Digital Mobility Businesshas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired by

Oct. 2022

Sep. 2022

Jul. 2022

Jul. 2022

Jul. 2022

Jul. 2022

has been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired by

May 2023

Apr. 2023

Apr. 2023

Iber-Oleff Brasil
has been acquired byhas been acquired byhas been acquired by

May 2023

May 2023

May 2023

Note: All trademarks, trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners

Fuel and Retail Business16

Select Kroll Automotive Transaction Experience
Fairness Opinion

Solvency Opinion

Solvency Opinion

Solvency Opinion

Fenix Parts, Inc. has been acquiredby Stellex Capital Management LP.

American Trailer World Corp., a
portfolio company of Bain Capital,
LP, has completed a leveraged
dividend recapitalizationtransaction.

Airxcel, Inc., a portfolio company of
L Catterton, has completed acomprehensive reorganizationtransaction.

JHT Holdings, Inc. has completed aleveraged dividend recapitalizationtransaction.

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof Fenix Parts Inc.

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof JHT Holdings, Inc.

Fairness Opinion

Fairness Opinion

Fairness Opinion

Solvency Opinion

Daimler AG (XTRA:DAI) has settled
two arbitration matters with theFederal Republic of Germany
related to its JV interest in Toll
Collect GmbH.

eHi Car Services Limited was
acquired by a consortium ofinvestors including its chairman,
MBK Partners Fund IV, L.P., andBaring Private Equity Asia Limited.

SORL Auto Parts, Inc.
(NasdaqGM:SORL) has beenacquired by an insider-led
consortium in a going privatetransaction.

KAR Auction Services, Inc.
(NYSE:KAR) has completed thespin-off of IAA, Inc.

Financial advisor to the board ofmanagement of Daimler AG and Daimler
Financial Services AG.

Financial advisor to the special
committee of independent directors of
eHi Car Services Limited.

Financial advisor to the special
committee of independent directors of
the board of directors of SORL Auto
Parts, Inc.

Note: All trademarks, trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof KAR Auction Services, Inc.

17

Select Kroll Automotive Transaction Experience
Fairness Opinion

Solvency Opinion

Solvency Opinion

Fairness Opinion

Atlas Crest Investment Corp.
entered into a business combinationagreement with Archer Aviation.

Cap-Con Automotive Technologies
Ltd., a portfolio company of The
Jordan Company, has completed aleveraged dividend recapitalizationtransaction.

Chassis Brakes International B.V., aportfolio company of KPS CapitalPartners, LP, has completed aleveraged dividend recapitalizationtransaction.

Johnson Controls Inc. has sold its
Power Solutions business to
Brookfield Business Partners L.P.

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof Atlas Crest Investment Corp.

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof Cap-Con Automotive Technologies
Ltd.

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof Chassis Brakes International B.V.

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof Johnson Controls Inc.

Solvency Opinion

Solvency Opinion

Fairness Opinion

Solvency Opinion

AxleTech International, LLC, aportfolio company of The Carlyle
Group, has completed a leveraged
dividend recapitalizationtransaction.

Chassix Inc. has completed aleveraged dividend recapitalizationtransaction.

UQM Technologies Inc. has soldnewly issued common shares toHybrid Kinetic Group Ltd.

Tekfor Global Holdings Ltd., aportfolio company of Kohlberg
Kravis Roberts & Co., hascompleted an internal restructuring.

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof AxleTech International, LLC.

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof Chassix Inc.

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof UQM Technologies Inc.

Financial advisor to the board of directorsof Tekfor Holding Germany GmbH.

Note: All trademarks, trade names or logos referenced herein are the property of their respective owners

18

Sources
1. “Global car market to hit the speed bumps in 2024.” ING. February 23,
2023.
2. “S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3M auto sales in 2024.” S&P Global.
December 14, 2023.
3. Bekker, Henk. “2023 (Full Year) International: Worldwide Car Sales.” BestSelling Cars. January 19, 2024.
4. “China sales surge in December and 2023.” Just Auto. January 12, 2024.
5. Pontes, Jose. “25% of New Car Sales in China Were 100% Electric in 2023!”
CleanTechnica. February 2024.
6. “New car registrations; +13.9% in 2023; battery electric 14.6% market
share.” European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). January
18, 2024.
7. S&P Capital IQ. April 2023.
8. “Light Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates – Historical Data.”
Argonne National Laboratory. April 2024.
9. Bigelow, Pete. “Air mobility meets autos: Stellantis, Toyota, Hyundai bring
manufacturing muscle to new market.” Automotive News. January 30, 2024.
10. MND Staff. “Car sales in Mexico reached highest level since 2018.” Mexico
News Daily. January 5, 2024.
11. Gearino, Dan. “U.S. Electric Vehicles Sales Are Poised to Rise A Lot in 2024,
Despite What You May Have Heard.” Inside Climate News. February 8,
2024.
12. Dugan, Kevin T. “A Once Unthinkable Question: Could Electric-Vehicle Sales
Decline This Year?” Intelligencer. February 14, 2024.
13. Financial Post Staff. “Top headlines: EVs pile up at U.S. dealer as inventories
hit record high.” Financial Post. December 15, 2023.

14. Domonoske, Camila. “EVs won over early adopters, but mainstream buyersaren’t along for the ride yet.” NPR. February 7, 2024.
15. “A Record 1.2 Million EVs Were Sold in the U.S. in 2023, According to
Estimates from Kelley Blue Book.” Cox Automotive. January 9, 2024.
16. Lee, Medora. “Here’s why people aren’t buying EVs in spite of price cuts andtax breaks.” USA Today. November 14, 2023.
17. Marx, Paris. “What happened to EVs?” Business Insider. January 3, 2024.
18. “Cox Automotive Forecast: U.S. Auto Sales Expected to Finish 2023 Up
More Than 11% Year Over Year, as General Motors Retains Top Spot,Hyundai Motor Group Jumps Past Stellantis.” Cox Automotive. December
27, 2023.
19. “2023 U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings – Every Vehicle Ranked by Sales
Volume.” GoodCarBadCar. March 2024.
20. Jin, Qian. “Top-Selling car brands in January 2024 in China – VW overtook
BYD to become No. 1.” CarNewsChina. February 8, 2024.
21. Dnistran, Iulian. “VW, China’s Long-Time Top-Selling Car Brand, Was
Dethroned by BYD in 2023.” InsideEVs. January 25, 2024.
22. Winton, Neil. “Europe’s Auto Profitability To Slip In 2024, But Watch Out
For 2025.” Forbes. February 14, 2024.

19

For more information, please contact:
Mark Kwilosz
Head of North American
Automotive M&A Advisory
Chicago+1 312 697 4677
mark.kwilosz@kroll.com

Stephen Burt
Global Head of M&A Advisory.
Chicago+1 312 697 4620
steve.burt@kroll.com

David Althoff
Global Head of Diversified
Industrial M&A
Chicago+1 312 697 4625
david.althoff@kroll.com

Jeffrey McNamara

Dr. Howard E. Johnson

Managing Director, Diversified
Industrials M&A

Managing Director, Canadian
M&A Advisory

Chicago+1 312 697 4638
jeffrey.mcnamara@kroll.com

TorontoAndreas Stoecklin

Dafydd Evans

Alexandre Pierantoni

David Lu

Head of Corporate Finance,
EMEA

Managing Director, M&A
Advisory

Managing Director, M&A
Advisory

Managing Director, M&A
AdvisoryFrankfurt

LondonSao Paolo

Shanghai+49 697 191 8466

+44 207 089 4850

+55 11 3192 8103

+86 21 6032 0608

andreas.stoecklin@kroll.com

dafydd.evans@kroll.com

alexandre.pierantoni@kroll.com

david.lu@kroll.com+1 416 597 4500
howard.johnson@kroll.com

A b o ut K r o l l
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