Proposed

Swedish climate strategy

Klimatkommittén - SOU 2000:23

SOU 2000:23

Content
Introduction........................................................................................ 1
Summary ............................................................................................. 3
Proposed Swedish climate strategy ................................................ 4
Measures, policy instruments and tasks in the action programme ...... 6
Effects of a changed climate ......................................................... 9
Emissions of greenhouse gases in Sweden...................................... 9International efforts to solve the climate problem............................10
Objectives, instruments, duties and organization..............................11
Basic scenarios for Sweden in 2010 ..............................................13
Carbon dioxide tax and emissions trading.......................................132

Proposed Swedish climate strategy......................................... 17
2.1
2.2
2.3

2.4
2.5
2.6

2.7
2.8
2.9

Central areas for the strategy.............................................17
Proposed short- and long-term
national objectives .............................................................18
Considerations...................................................................23
2.3.1 International collaboration and ratification of
the Kyoto Protocol...................................................23
2.3.2 Long time horizon.....................................................25
2.3.3 Bearing on other policy areas....................................27
Timing of the initiatives ......................................................29
Choice of measures and instruments...................................30
Action programme.............................................................32
2.6.1 Central issues in the joint international work...............33
2.6.2 Central measures in the base package .......................33
2.6.3 Central measures in the supplementary package.........35
Timetable for implementation .............................................36
Implementation and responsibilities .....................................37
State expenditures and financing.........................................39
2.9.1 Proposed expenditures..............................................392.9.2 Financing options......................................................40

Appendix 1Compilation of all
measures and proposals in thebase backage ................................................................. 43
Appendix 2 Compilation of costs and effects of measures..............49

SOU 2000:23

Introduction

The following parts of the results of the climate committee aretranslated to English:• Summary.
• Chapter 2, a description of the strategy as a whole.
• Appendix 1, a compilation of all measures and proposals in the basepackage.
• Appendix 2, a compilation of the costs and effects of measures.
The committee’s proposals will be circulated among Swedish agencys,
municipalitys and organizations. The Government plans to present a Bill,and they can change our proposals, to the Swedish Parliament,
Riksdagen, probably during the autumn of 2000.

1

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Summary

The quantity of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased
sharply in the past century, contributing towards an increase in the mean
temperature on the earth and other climate-related changes.
The threat of climate change is one of the most complex problems
facing mankind. The process of climate change is global, long-term andtakes place with considerable inertia.
Today’s emissions contribute towards further increasing
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, worsening thesituation. The higher the concentrations become, the longer time will be
required to get them back to a less risky level.
Sweden has ratified the 1992 UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change. The ultimate objective of the Convention is to stabilize
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would
prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
The developed countries are also charged to adopt measures to prevent
climatic impact.
A protocol linked to the Convention was drawn up in Kyoto in 1997.
In brief, the Kyoto Protocol provides that the developed countries shall
reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by approximately 5 % by 2010,
compared with 1990 levels. Quantitative emission restrictions have notbeen imposed on the developing countries.
Carbon dioxide is one of the six greenhouse gases dealt with in the
protocol. Carbon dioxide is a gas that is formed by combustion of fossil
fuels in particular. More than 75 % of the world’s energy production isbased on fossil fuels, and most vehicles are powered by fossil fuel.
Other gases included in the Kyoto Protocol are methane, nitrous oxide,hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride. Theseother gases account together for 25 % of the greenhouse gas emissions
in the world.

3

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Proposed Swedish climate strategy
Sweden’s proposed climate strategy comprises objectives and an action
programme for achieving them. The action programme includes
measures, policy instruments and planning as well as organisational
proposals for implementation. The strategy relates to the period up to
2050. The action programme covers the period up to 2010. The strategy
and the action programme should be evaluated, revised and extended at
specified times.

The following long-term objective is proposed:
A decrease in emissions of greenhouse gases in Sweden of
approximately 50 per cent on 1990 levels by 2050, with further
reductions thereafter. Emissions in 2050 may not exceed 4.0–4.5 tonnes
per year per capita, measured in carbon dioxide equivalent.
This means that current targets for Limited climatic impact remainin place. These have been established on the basis of joint statements by
the EU’s environmental ministers. However, the picture has beensomewhat altered by the inclusion of all gases. The goal for 2050 should
be to achieve stabilisation of the six greenhouse gases specified in the
Kyoto Protocol at about 550 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent. Sweden
should seek to promote this target at international level.
The 2050 objective is based on the need to achieve a radical
decrease in atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases in developed
countries by 2100.

The following short-term objectiv is proposed for 2008–2012:
Emissions of greenhouse gases for Sweden shall, as a mean value for theperiod 2008 to 2012, be 2 % lower than emissions in 1990, counted as
tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
The objectives includes the six greenhouse gases according to thedefinitions of the Kyoto Protocol and the IPCC. Measures adopted
beyond the country’s boundaries shall be supplemental. Considerable
emission reductions shall take place within the country’s boundaries.

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Summary 5

The following interim objective is proposed for 2005:
Emissions of greenhouse gases in Sweden, in tonnes of carbon dioxide
equivalent, shall remain at 1990 levels, with further reductions
thereafter. This target covers the six greenhouse gases as defined in the
Kyoto Protocol and the IPCC.

The strategy
The strategy is based on two primary considerations: the need forinternational collaboration and the need for a long-term approachcombined with integration with other policy areas.
Global climate change can only by addressed by a coordinated global
strategy in which developed countries, which have been and continue tobe responsible for a large proportion of all emissions, reduce theiremissions substantially. International collaboration is therefore essential,
and Sweden must take an active part in international efforts.
A strategy with a long-term perspective must allow flexibility, takeaccount of the need to distribute burdens equitably among countries andgenerations, and prioritise measures aimed at infrastructural change.
Changes must be predicated on the capacity of the democratic system
to deal with them and on the prospects of effecting the necessarytransformations in practice.
That said, we must ensure that no time is lost in commencing thistransformation. This will require immediate steps. The consequences ofclimate change will affect future generations most of all. The
Committee believes that the pace of transition to a climaticallysustainable society must be stepped up. It is essential that developed
countries set a good example so that developing countries will in turn bedisposed to accept future requirements on emission reductions. It is thusof the utmost importance to avoid delay in implementing emission
abatement measures.
As implementation of Sweden’s strategy proposals will affect thewhole of society, it will also be necessary to consider the implications
for other policy areas. The Committee believes that climate-related
considerations should be an inherent component of all proposals drawn
up in other policy areas affected by implementation of climate policy.
The Committee proposes that educational, administrative andeconomic instruments should be used to achieve the proposed goals.
The action programme includes both short- and long-term measures forachieving them. The proposals also include procedures for follow-up
and evaluation as well as dates for upcoming climate policy decisions.
The dates proposed are 2004 and 2008.

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The Committee’s proposals are aimed at involving all of society inthe implementation of climate policy. The proposals are predicated on
the implementation of information initiatives aimed at communicating
policy objectives to the public, and on the adoption of measures in all
sectors of society to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Increased
knowledge and awareness are vital in enlisting the support andparticipation of the public in facilitating the necessary changes.
The Committee proposes that coordination within the Swedish
Government Offices be strengthened and that a special Climate Council
be established at government agency level. Further efforts at regional
and local level should be supported by state subsidies and climate policy
programmes to ensure that implementation is based on local conditions.
It is the opinion of the Committee that ratification of the Kyoto
Protocol would be facilitated by further clarification of certain parts of
the Protocol. This applies particularly to flexible mechanisms, sinks, thegases (sulphur hexafluoride, perfluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons)and the provisions relating to follow-up and sanctions. If the ratification
process is to commence without delay Sweden should work actively tobring about the necessary clarification when the parties to the climate
convention meet for negotiations.
In summary, the proposed strategy represents the first steps towards
broad implementation in Sweden. Its aim is to ensure that Sweden
assumes its share of the responsibility – internationally, by participating
and contributing experience gained from our endeavours, and nationally,
by adopting measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Measures, policy instruments and tasks in theaction programme
Measures within various sectors of society are included in theCommittee’s proposed action programme. Altogether, more than 100
measures are proposed in a ”base package”. These measures andproposals are presented in Appendix 1. Those measures whose costs
and emissions reductions have been possible to quantify are presented inAppendix 2.
The proposals cover both what action Sweden should takeinternationally, and what measures should be adopted within the
country. The proposals aim at reducing emissions of greenhouse gases
and improving energy efficiency in a large number of areas.
The proposed measures have been divided into different packages:
base and supplementary packages. The base package contains bothmeasures aimed at achieving emissions reductions within a couple of

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Summary 7

years, and measures that lead to positive effects in the long term. It also
includes proposals for research aimed at obtaining more information asa basis for deciding on further measures. The measures in the basepackage can be approved immediately. Financing of the measures is
proposed through 2004.
The supplementary package contains measures and instruments
aimed at bringing about further emissions reductions, but requiring more
information before a decision can be made. Examples are measures thatare dependent on the outcome of international negotiations, such as useof the Kyoto Protocol’s flexible mechanisms and taking sinks into
account. The supplementary package contains proposals for different
measures that can be chosen later as regards both scope andcombination of these measures.
Many of the measures which we proposed also lead to positiveeffects for other environmental objectives. In certain cases, however,there is a risk that conflicts may arise with other environmental
objectives. In such cases it is urgent that the measures be implemented
in such a manner that any adverse environmental impact is minimized.
Information associated with demonstration projects and investment
grants are important parts of the proposed measures. A reservation forthe suggested subsidies and grants is that they must be approved by theEuropean Commission, taking into account the EU’s government aid
rules.
Certain proposals call for tighter controls. These are mainly aimed at
the residential, industrial and commercial sector. The controls call formeasures aimed at a long-term adaptation, such as lower energy
consumption in buildings and phase-out of the three industrial gases.
Estimates by the National Energy Administration indicate that the
proposed measures could lead to a reduction of emissions by about 2.4
million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, compared with the emissions
picture in 2010 without these proposed measures. The measures arealso estimated to contribute to a reduction in electricity consumption byin the order of 3–7 TWh. The proposal also calls for greater
investments in wind power to produce 3–5 TWh in 2010, in addition topresent-day programmes. Furthermore, a number of measures andresearch initiatives are proposed which could probably lead toconsiderable emissions reductions, although it is impossible to specify byexactly how much at this time.
It is estimated that the base package will lead to additional state
expenditures between now and 2004 of SEK 1.2–1.6 billion per annum.
Altogether, it is estimated that expenditures for the base package up to2010 will amount to approximately SEK 11 billion. State expenditures
for the wind power programme are included, but complete data are8 Summary

SOU 2000:23

lacking, and expenditures after 2005 may be higher. Alternative
proposals are being submitted for financing of the state’s increased
expenditures for the period up to and including 2004.
The outcomes of the quantified measures in the base package areshown in Table 1.
Table 1 Outcome of quantified measures in base package
Basic scenario, 2010
Without measures
Mt carbon dioxide equivalent
Change compared with 1990, %Net imports of electricity in 2010, TWh
With measures in base package
Mt carbon dioxide equivalent
Change compared with 1990, %Net imports of electricity in 2010, TWh

STEM

KI

74.6
+5
5.2

81.6
+15
no data

72.2
+1.5
<0

<79.2
<+13
no data

Besides the quantified measures, additional measures are needed toreduce emissions by between approximately 3 and 10 million tonnes ofcarbon dioxide equivalent in order for the emissions level in 2010 to be 2
% lower than in 1990.
Among the measures included in our proposals, and for which data
are lacking to calculate the emissions reduction, are information
initiatives, aid to the local climate programmes, addenda to theEnvironmental Code, policy instruments which will eventually lead to aphase-out of the three industrial gases, transfer of goods from road torail by intermodal subsidy, public procurement, social planning, energyplans, etc. Nor do the estimates of emissions reductions include themeasures in the supplementary package, such as emissions trading,changes in the energy and carbon dioxide tax, flexible mechanisms andsinks.

Effects of a changed climate
The earth’s mean temperature has increased by an average of 0.3–
0.4ºC during the past half century, and there is much to indicate that thisis the fastest warming of the earth to occur since the last ice age.
Today there is widespread agreement in the scientific community thatthe ongoing process of climate change is largely due to human impact.
Simulations of the climate of the future show that if nothing is done tocheck this trend, the earth’s mean temperature will increase by anadditional 1–3.5ºC by 2100.

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Summary 9

In all likelihood, this change will lead to serious social, economic andecological consequences. Even if atmospheric emissions of greenhousegases are stabilized at the current level, the concentrations in theatmosphere will increase for several hundred years due to the gases’
long residence time in the atmosphere.
Climate change will not leave any part of the world unaffected, but
certain regions will be impacted harder than others by the direct effects.
Analyses indicate that the ongoing climate change will not have as
serious consequences for Sweden as for certain other parts of theworld. However, the climate scenarios contain great uncertainties, andthe risk of unforeseen courses of events leading to serious
consequences, even for Sweden, cannot be ruled out.

Emissions of greenhouse gases in Sweden
Emissions of greenhouse gases in Sweden, according to the definitionsof the Climate Convention, amounted to 70.8 million tonnes of carbon
dioxide equivalent in 1990. Emissions in 1998 were 75.1 million tonnes.
Aggregate greenhouse gas emissions thereby increased byapproximately 6 % during this period. Carbon dioxide emissions
increased by about 3 % during the 1990s. Methane emissions havedecreased and nitrous oxide emissions are unchanged, while emissionsof hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride are
believed to have increased during the same period.
Carbon dioxide emissions comprise approximately 80 % of total
emissions of greenhouse in Sweden, counted as carbon dioxide
equivalent. Carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector declined byapproximately 40 % between 1970 and 1998.
The biggest sources of methane emissions are agriculture, primarily
enteric fermentation from ruminant cattle, and waste landfills.
Combustion also gives rise to methane. Methane emissions compriseapproximately 8 % of total greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden,
measured as carbon dioxide equivalent.
Nitrous oxide is emitted from agricultural land and manure, and isformed in various combustion processes and the manufacture ofcommercial fertilizer. Nitrous oxide is also formed in catalytic
converters used to reduce automotive emissions. Nitrous oxide
emissions comprise approximately 10 % of total greenhouse gas
emissions in Sweden, measured as carbon dioxide equivalent.
The three other gases – hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons andsulphur hexafluoride – comprise a smaller, but growing, portion of thetotal emissions. Work is under way to devise methods for estimating the10 Summary

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emissions of these gases, but the estimates that have been madeindicate a relatively sharp increase in the emissions of these gases.
The table below shows emissions of the six greenhouse gas in 1990
and 1998, according to emissions source.
Table 2 Greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden in 1990 and 1998,
million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
Sector
1990
1998
Energy and transformationindustries, refineries
9.1
10.1
Fuel combustion industries
13.9
13.4
Industrial processes
6.0
9.4
Transport
20.0
22.1
Fuel combustion, residential,
11.1
10.2
commercial and institutional
Agriculture
8.6
8.3
Waste disposal
1.8
1.3
Miscellaneous
0.3
0.3
Total
70.8
75.11)
1)revised to 74.8 million tonnes in report to Climate Convention, NV, 2000b
Source: Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, 1999

International efforts to solve the climate problem
The climate problem is global in scope. International efforts will be
crucial to a great extent in determining how Sweden can and ought toact.
An important judgement question in the international work is how
Sweden should act with regard to flexible mechanisms and in the matterof how sinks are to be taken into account. Flexible mechanisms include
e.g. measures adopted in foreign countries for whose emissions
reductions credit can be taken, and trading in emission rights. Sinks
absorb carbon dioxide in soil and forest. Flexible mechanisms and sinks
are options offered by the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol
to individual countries for the purpose of bringing about emissions
reductions at reasonable costs. It is important that the cominginternational negotiations clarify rules and treatment of sinks and flexible
mechanisms.
The Committee believes that Sweden should advocate a minimum
level of energy taxes and carbon dioxide tax in the EU. The Committee
deems it essential that decisions on environmental taxes in the EU be
made with a qualified majority.

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Summary 11

The Committee proposes a coherent action programme for how
Sweden should proceed in the complicated international issues.

Objectives, instruments, duties and organization
Current objectives call for a stabilization of carbon dioxide emissions
from fossil fuels at the 1990 level in 2000, followed by a reduction, in
accordance with the Climate Convention. Beyond this there areobjectives calling for emissions reductions of the other greenhousegases defined in the Kyoto Protocol. There are objectives in nationaltransport policy that largely coincide with the national carbon dioxidetarget. The objective for the transport sector extends to 2010, which is adifference compared with the national objective. Objective formulationin the energy sector has a qualitative orientation, which includes energy
production with low climatic impact.
The Committee is of the opinion that the work of reducing
greenhouse gas emissions is in a build-up phase within a number ofsocietal sectors. The Committee submits a number of proposals aimed
at improving the underlying database.
The Committee proposes a more detailed definition of the duties andresponsibilities of government agencies, as well as procedures forfollow-up and evaluation. These duties are to collect data annually
within the different spheres of responsibility and evaluate the options forachieving emissions reductions within each sector so that the national
objectives can be achieved and the international commitments can be
met. Based on the options open to each agency, measures shall be
adopted and followed up and results reported.
The policy instruments at the disposal of the state can be divided into
three categories: administrative instruments (i.e. regulations, directives
and prohibitions), economic instruments and informative instruments (forexample research and development, and information).
These instruments have also been used in the area of climate policy.
The application of economic instruments has helped to limit carbon
dioxide emissions. At the same time, levies of taxes and various types ofsubsidies have varied widely over time. Research and development
initiatives are of a long-term character, and it is difficult at the present
time to estimate the effects of efforts to date.
A reorientation of all sectors of society towards a reduced usage offossil fuels could entail considerable changes for both private citizens
and business enterprises. Consequently, the policy instruments usedshould be long-term and relatively stable over time so that credibility canbe created for the climate policy. The Committee considers it is12 Summary

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essential to make use of all the aforementioned instruments to achieve a
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Strictly from the viewpoint of resource conservation, the choice ofpolicy instruments is simple: correctly designed, general economic
instruments are the most effective.
Different political objectives must be weighed against each other inboth the short and long term. Economic instruments will continue to beimportant. The Committee has concluded that a variety of climate policy
instruments will have to be used to achieve the objectives.
The Committee considers it urgent to try information activities as ameans of encouraging involvement at all levels of society. It is essentialthat both private citizens and companies be informed on how their use
of fossil fuels can be reduced. Information is also essential in the
dialogue between legislators and citizens.
Information activities should therefore be carried out at all levels andin collaboration with e.g. adult education and trade organizations. The
purpose is to raise the level of knowledge and awareness so that people
will understand the importance of carrying out the necessary measuresand changes.
Administrative instruments aimed, for example, at defining duties andresponsibilities for the implementation of the climate policy are essential
tools for state control of e.g. government agencies. The duties ofgovernment agencies in conjunction with the implementation of climate
policy should therefore be stipulated in instructions and appropriations
letters for the agencies that are particularly important in this context.
Furthermore, administrative instruments are essential in the review ofapplications for, and issuance of, permits for various types of activities.
The administrative structure for climate policy embraces many
sectors of society, and responsibility for implementing measures is
distributed among many hands. A strong coordination of climate policyon the central level is needed to achieve the objectives: a reduction ofgreenhouse gas emissions.
The Committee is of the opinion that the regions must decide forthemselves whether regional objectives are useful to promote regional
and local initiatives.
The Committee believes it is particularly important that the climate
issue be given the proper attention at all levels of society if both shortand long-term objectives are to be achieved. The state should, to agreater extent, support local projects aimed at reducing greenhouse gas
emissions and/or increasing efficiency in energy usage. It is also
important that the general public, companies and organizations
collaborate in these efforts. The Committee proposes financial support
to local climate programmes (KLIMP) be devised for the purpose of

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Summary 13

identifying and implementing cost-effective measures to reducegreenhouse gas emissions and energy use.

Basic scenarios for Sweden in 2010
The National Energy Administration and the National Institute of
Economic Research have made projections, called basic scenarios, for2010 as regards emissions and energy use. The basic scenarios are
based on parliamentary decisions and projections of the consequencesof these decisions. The scenarios should be regarded as possible
courses of development based on assumed premises.
If we do not adopt additional measures compared with today, thebasic scenarios show that greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden will
increase by 2010 compared with 1990.
Emissions in 2010 are estimated to amount to between 75 and 82
million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, depending on premises andanalysis methods. This represents an increase ranging from 5 to 15 %compared with 1990, when greenhouse gas emissions were 71 million
tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent.
If Sweden is to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 by 2 %compared with 1990, measures are required that lead to emissions thatare between 5 and 12 million tonnes less than in the basic scenarios.

Carbon dioxide tax and emissions trading
A tax on carbon dioxide emissions, or a system of trading in emission
rights, are ways of providing an incentive for reduction of carbon
dioxide emissions. These economic instruments are considered to becost-effective ways of achieving emissions reductions.
The effects of raising the carbon dioxide tax have been analyzed
using the basic scenarios. According to the analyses, an increase in the
carbon dioxide tax from the current level of SEK 0.37 per kg of carbon
dioxide to between SEK 1.10 and 1.25 would be needed to achieve anemissions reduction of 2 % between 1990 and 2010. If other
instruments are also used to reduce emissions, a lower tax level willprobably be sufficient to achieve the objective.
A unilateral Swedish increase of the carbon dioxide tax leads tolower GDP growth. The analysis provides some support for the
supposition the Swedish cost picture would be improved if vigorous
measures were adopted internationally to comply with the Kyoto
Protocol.

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An increased carbon dioxide tax also has effects on the restructuringof the economy so that non-energy-intensive industry expands at theexpense of energy-intensive industry. The analysis shows that the effecton the total costs of industry is relatively small, whereas the cost
increase may be substantial within certain sectors. International
measures may result in a less extreme restructuring of Swedish
industry.
Households are affected by a increase of the carbon dioxide tax inthe form of changes in consumption and real income. Since one purposeof environmental policy is to achieve higher environmental quality,changes in human behaviour are more or less necessary. The analysis
shows that the increased tax burden, considered in relation to income or
expenditures, is greater for low-income households. The increase inabsolute costs (actual money terms) for high-income households isgreater, however. Further, the analysis shows that the costs increase
with size of household.
A sharp increase in the carbon dioxide tax may have considerable
regional and local effects. The analysis shows that the direct effect onhouseholds is greatest in northern Sweden and in rural areas. Moreover,the most fuel-dependent industries are located in these regions.
An review of the energy tax system is being conducted within the
Government Offices. The Committee’s general viewpoint is that theenergy tax system should be pollution-controlling, particularly from a
climate viewpoint.
There is much evidence to suggest that carbon dioxide emissions
increase with economic growth. The Committee therefore believes thatthe carbon dioxide tax ought to be index-linked to GDP growth.
So-called tradable emission rights can be said to be a combination
between a quantitative regulation, in the form of a ”ceiling” on total
emissions, and an economic instrument. The cost of emissions
reductions, in terms of reduced GDP growth, are lower in the case of anational system of emissions trading compared with the current carbon
dioxide tax system. A system with international trading in emission
rights leads to further efficiency gains, which shows the potential ofemissions trading.
The structural effects that can arise in a national system of
emissions trading differ fundamentally from the effects that arise as aconsequence of a tax.
With international emissions trading, emissions in Sweden may
increase, since the reduction may in part occur elsewhere. This may
have an adverse effect on other environmental objectives.
Owing to the global nature of the climate problem, the Committee
believes that a system of emissions trading where as many countries as

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Summary 15

possible take part is a good long-range strategy to address the problem.
In a shorter perspective, the aim should be to take part in an EU system
or European system of emissions trading. A special technical committee
should be appointed to provide proposals for the design of an emissions
trading system, where the option of a national system should also be
examined if the European system takes too long to implement.

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172

Proposed Swedish climate strategy

2.1

Central areas for the strategy

The climate strategy stipulates objectives and an action programme
for achieving them. The action programme includes measures, policy
instruments, organization and a timetable for implementation of thestrategy. The strategy relates to the period up to 2050, while theaction programme covers the period up to 2010. To take changed
premises into account, the strategy and the action programme shouldbe evaluated, revised and extended at specified times.
We are the first committee to have studied measures for several sectorsof society and several greenhouse gases. In our judgement, the work
we have initiated is just the beginning of what needs to be done and thegreat changes that will be necessary. We see before us a long series ofcommittees that will have to elaborate and progressively develop theobjectives, the strategy and the action programme.
The purpose of this report is to lay a foundation for a long-range
climate policy with both short- and long-term objectives. Measures andinstruments within a number of areas are proposed to achieve theobjectives. This chapter deals with the considerations and proposals thatcomprise the foundation of the strategy.

18 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

2.2

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Proposed short- and long-term national
objectives

The Committee’s proposals for objectives

Long-term objective for 2050
Emissions of greenhouse gases in Sweden in 2050 should decrease
by approximately 50 % compared to emissions in 1990, with further
reductions thereafter. Emissions in 2050 may not exceed 4.0–4.5
tonnes per year per capita, measured as carbon dioxide equivalent.
The current environmental quality objective, ”Limited climatic
impact”, remains in place, but the implications are changed by the
inclusion of all gases. The concentration of the six greenhouse gases
specified in the Kyoto Protocol should be stabilized at about 550 ppm
of carbon dioxide equivalent. Sweden should seek to promote thistarget in international contexts.
Short-term objective for the period 2008–2012
Emissions of greenhouse gases in Sweden shall, as a mean value forthe period 2008 to 2012, be 2 % lower than emissions in 1990,
counted as tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent. This target includes
the six greenhouse gases according to the definitions of the Kyoto
Protocol and the IPCC. Measures adopted beyond the country’s
boundaries shall be supplementary. Considerable emissions
reductions shall take place within the country’s boundaries.
Interim objective for 2005
Emissions of greenhouse gases in Sweden shall be unchanged
compared with the 1990 level, measured as carbon dioxide
equivalent, with further reductions thereafter. Emissions in 2005 shallbe normal-year-corrected according to Swedish methodology. Thistarget covers the six greenhouse gases as defined in the Kyoto
Protocol and the IPCC.

SOU 2000:23

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 19

Short- and long-term objectives
The Committee wishes to emphasize that the proposed objectives may
be subject to reconsideration. They may need to be revised in view of
new knowledge as regards both the climate problem as more specificdatas is gathered and the feasibility for society of making the necessarychanges to avoid the threatening consequences of the greenhouseeffect. The outcome of international negotiations and of measures inother countries are of central importance in the revision of bothobjectives and the measures needed to achieve the objectives.

Long-term objective for 2050
The current trend of largely unchanged increases in greenhouse gas
emissions must be reversed during the next 50 years and the emissions
reduced, so that a stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of thegreenhouse gases is achieved in the latter part of this century.
It is above all the industrialized countries’ emissions of greenhousegases to the atmosphere that must be reduced radically by 2100. Global
climate change can only be mitigated by a coordinated global strategy
entailing that the developed countries in particular, who have caused andare causing the most emissions, reduce their emissions substantially.
The developing countries have only accounted for approximately 20% of the accumulated atmospheric emissions since the 19th century.
They account for less than 40 % of the present-day emissions, despite
the fact that their population is nearly four times that of the developed
countries. A global strategy therefore needs to be devised based on apolicy of international solidarity where the developed countries makeradical emissions reductions. Otherwise, the developing countries will
scarcely accept any form of commitment.
The threat of global climate change forces us to think in an
unaccustomed time perspective. There is therefore a clear need toformulate climate policy objectives with a time horizon of about 50
years. Measures adopted today will not have full effect for one or two
decades. International agreements on necessary measures are also
time-consuming. A 50-year perspective therefore appears reasonable.
The Committee’s assessment is that formulating objectives for whatneeds to be achieved by 2050 makes us better equipped to achievesignificant emissions reductions. A long-range objective sends importantsignals that a process of adjustment must be initiated and that it isessential to think in terms of equity between generations.
Within the EU, the Council has stated that the mean temperature
should not exceed 2ºC above the pre-industrial level, and that carbon

20 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

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dioxide levels below 550 ppm should serve as a target for global
limitation and reduction measures. A significant reduction of global
emissions and common reduction measures to achieve this will therefore
be necessary for another century or more.
In Sweden, the following environmental quality objective has beenformulated regarding ”Limited climatic impact”:
The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere shall, in
accordance with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, bestabilized at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved insuch a way and within a time-frame sufficient to allow biological diversity to
be preserved, to secure food production and to ensure that other objectives
for sustainable development are not jeopardized. Sweden has, together withother countries, a responsibility for achieving this global objective (Gov.
Bill 1997/98:145).

According to the Government, the environmental quality objective
entails focusing policy measures on stabilizing the atmosphericconcentration of carbon dioxide at a level below 550 ppm and ensuringthat the concentrations of the other greenhouse gases do not increase.
The Committee observes that a stabilization of the concentration ofgreenhouse gases at a level higher than 600 ppm would pose a grave
risk for disruptions in the global climate.
In view of the share of other greenhouse gases in the total increase,and against the background of the global situation, the Committee
considers that the objective of only stabilizing carbon dioxide at 550 ppm
entails excessive risks. The objective of stabilizing the concentration of
the other greenhouse gases at the present-day level could, on the other
hand, require unrealistic reductions in the emissions of other greenhousegases. It is therefore more appropriate to formulate a collective
objective for all greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol: thatthe total atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases should lie
below the level that poses considerable risk for serious disruption of theclimate.
The Committee therefore proposes that the environmental quality
objective remain in place, but that its implications be changed by the
inclusion of all gases. The objective should therefore be to achieve astabilization of the six greenhouse gases specified in the Kyoto Protocol
at about 550 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent. The Committee
proposes that Sweden should advocate this objective in international
contexts.
This means that the concentration of carbon dioxide shall not exceed
approximately 500 ppm. This objective entails that Swedish emissions ofcarbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto
Protocol may not exceed 4.0–4.5 tonnes per capita, measured as carbon

SOU 2000:23

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 21

dioxide equivalent, compared with the current level of 8.3 tonnes per
capita. Our greenhouse gas emissions thus need to be reduced byapproximately 50 % by 2050, compared to the 1990 level, with further
reductions thereafter.
The assumptions on which the proposed target are based are firstly
that the population of Sweden is more or less constant during these 50
years, and secondly that an equalization between developed anddeveloping countries can be achieved by the middle of this century.
In summary, the Committee finds that if the objective of stabilizing
the concentration of the greenhouse gases at a level of 550 ppm ofcarbon dioxide equivalent, i.e. the level we are now proposing, is to berealized, it is necessary that the developed countries begin their efforts
to reduce these emissions immediately.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden by nearly 50 % by2050 means that the reduction after 2010 needs to be intensified, evenassuming that Sweden reduces its emissions by 2 % by 2010. The paceof the adjustment process will depend on how well other countries
succeed in meeting their commitments.

Short-term objective for the period 2008-2012
The Riksdag (Swedish Parliament) has established the current objective,that emissions of all climate-affecting gases shall be limited and thatcarbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels shall be stabilized at the 1990
level by 2000, with further reduction thereafter. In conjunction with thepassage of the environmental quality objective of ”Limited climatic
impact” by the Riksdag, the previously approved emissions targets wereconfirmed.
The EU’s commitment under the Kyoto Protocol entails that the EU,
which is a party in international contexts, shall reduce emissions by 8 %,compared to the 1990 level, during the period 2008–2012. According to
the EU’s burden sharing, i.e. the distribution of the EU’s emissions
reduction commitment among the member states, emissions in Sweden
may increase by 4 % during this period.
The Committee is not of the opinion that the EU’s internal
distribution of burden warrants a departure by Sweden from the
Riksdag’s decision to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In keeping witharguments advanced in conjunction with the Committee’s proposal for along-term objective, we do not believe Sweden should increase its
emissions when global efforts are being aimed at getting the developed
countries to reduce their emissions.
The Committee proposes as a short-term objective that emissions ofgreenhouse gases in Sweden shall, as a mean value for the period 2008

22 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

SOU 2000:23

to 2012, be 2 % lower than emissions in 1990, counted as tonnes ofcarbon dioxide equivalent. This objective includes the six greenhousegases in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol’s and the IPCC’s
definitions. Measures adopted beyond the country’s boundaries shall be
supplementary. Considerable emissions reductions shall take place
within the country’s boundaries.
This assessment is based on the need for considerable emissions
reductions over a long time. We believe that a continued reduction isnecessary to meet long-term commitments. This also sends the rightsignals indicating that political decisions will be aimed at continued
emissions reductions, equivalent to a halving of the emissions in 50
years.
It is urgent that investments in private enterprise, households andpublic activities be made with a view towards the need to reducegreenhouse gas emissions. The purpose is to reduce the risk that we will
become locked into structures that bind us for a long time. It is alsoessential that technological development be promoted by sending clear
signals to both the business sector as well as research and development
bodies in the form of objectives that require intensified efforts to reducegreenhouse gas emissions.
The Committee considers it appropriate that the time for theobjective coincide with the period covered by the Kyoto Protocol, andthat ten years is an appropriate period for a short-term objective
regarding emissions reductions.
All factors considered, the Committee considers our proposed
objective, that emissions should decrease by 2 % compared with 1990,
to be realistic as a short-term objective.
The level we propose for 2008–2012 entails that Sweden will, with
ample margin, meet the commitment agreed upon in the EU’s internal
distribution of burden for the period 2008–2012. This does not mean that
Sweden should renegotiate its share in the EU’s burden sharing.

Interim objective for 2005
The Committee believes there is good reason to formulate an interim
objective for 2005. The purpose is to ensure that the short-term
objective is achieved. Fulfilment of the interim objective thereby
determines what other policy measures and instruments are needed toachieve the objective for the period 2008–2012. Assessments of goal
fulfilment should be made on the basis of forecasts made in 2003 or
2004. The emissions figure for 2005 shall be normal-year-correctedaccording to Swedish methodology in view of the fact that a single year
is chosen for measuring national objective fulfilment.

SOU 2000:23

2.3

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 23

Considerations

The considerations that lie at the basis of the strategy are dealt with in
this section. The climate problem is global, everyone contributes to the
problem and all countries can be affected, although to varying degrees.
The climate problem also involves considerations of welfare between
the generations, requiring long-term solutions. A strategy should
therefore be based on international collaboration and a long time
horizon. To be successful, the climate policy must be integrated withother policy areas, and incentives must be created for the broad
participation of all members of society.

2.3.1

International collaboration and ratification of
the Kyoto Protocol

Extensive global measures are needed to achieve the goals. We
therefore propose that Sweden should continue to participate actively at
the international level in order to pursue the policies we consider to be
most important and share Swedish experience of policies, measures andresults of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

What Sweden should do internationally
It is the opinion of the Committee that ratification of the Kyoto Protocol
would be facilitated by further clarification of certain parts of the rulesof the Protocol. This is particularly true with regard to flexible
mechanisms, sinks, the industrial gases (sulphur hexafluoride,
perfluorocarbons and hydrofluorocarbons) and the provisions pertaining
to follow-up and sanctions. Sweden should therefore work actively tobring about such clarification when the parties to the Climate
Convention meet for negotiations in November 2000 (COP 61) so thatthe ratification process can be commenced without delay.
The EU’s commitment in the Kyoto Protocol entails a reduction of
the Union’s collective emissions by 8 % during the period 1990–
2008/12. 2
1

COP – Conference of the Parties. The parties to the Climate Convention meet
regularly to discuss and negotiate matters pertaining to the Kyoto Protocol. For a
more detailed description, see Chapter 7, ”International work in the climate field”.
2
The target of 8% for the EU as a whole has been shared among the member stateswith regard to various economic development patterns. If the agreement on how
the emissions reductions are to be shared is translated into a legal document, the24 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

SOU 2000:23

If COP 6 has satisfactory results, an EU decision for ratification,
including a formal confirmation of internal burden sharing, will be able tobe taken in the spring of 2001. This is a prerequisite for meeting the EU
goal of ratifying the Kyoto Protocol by 2002.
The Committee assumes that the negotiations can be carried to a
successful conclusion so that Sweden can ratify the Kyoto Protocol in
2002.
The Committee believes Sweden should be a driving force
internationally to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at a sustainablelevel and to take the needs of the developing countries into
consideration.
The issue of sinks is also of central importance in the international
negotiations. Sinks are processes, activities or mechanisms that absorb
greenhouse gases from the atmosphere and store them in various
reservoirs. The term ”sink” is usually used for uptake of carbon dioxidefrom the atmosphere via photosynthesis to reservoirs in forest andagricultural land.
It is our opinion that Sweden should, in future negotiations, advocate
the inclusion of sinks in a manner that does not distort the commitments in
the Kyoto Protocol. Given this restriction, Sweden should advocate theinclusion of sinks in a manner that is neutral and perceived as fair, andwhich takes account of methodological uncertainties. This means thatsinks utilized by parties to meet their commitments should reflect an actual
sink for forestry as a whole.

Preparations for transition to trading in emission rights
When the Kyoto Protocol enters into force, we believe that emissions
trading (trading in emission rights) and other flexible mechanisms
described in the Kyoto Protocol ought to form a part of the global
solution to the climate problem. We believe that this ought to improvethe chances of finding cost-effective global solutions for reducing
emissions. It is still too early to determine the pace at which this cantake place, and we believe that if emissions trading is introduced within
the EU, it may facilitate realization of the global system.
We therefore propose that Sweden should be a driving force within
the EU for the introduction of European trading in emission rights forgreenhouse gases in an ever-widening sphere of emission sources.
Furthermore, Sweden should advocate the principle that countries notmembers of the European Community should also be allowed to join the

Kyoto Protocol can be jointly ratified by the member states and by the EC.

SOU 2000:23

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 25

system, and that a European system should be introduced earlier than2005.
We therefore propose that Swedish preparations should be
intensified for introducing emissions trading for all emissions of carbon
dioxide, with the aim of also including other greenhouse gases as soon
as possible. The option of a national system should also be examined if
the European system takes too long to implement or is not of large
enough scope. Furthermore, in the light of the uncertainty in thetimetable of the international negotiations, the system should allow for
the option of inviting other countries in northern Europe to participate.

2.3.2

Long time horizon

The risk of global climate change is forcing us to plan with a much
longer time horizon than is normal in society.
The long-term emissions target for 2050 calls for a halving ofgreenhouse emissions, requiring great changes in society, even if they
can be mitigated by measures beyond the boundaries of the country.
With a time horizon of 2050 for the long-term objective, it must beborne in mind that in this interim at least 12 general elections will havebeen held, given the current term of office of members of parliament.
The democratic system must be up to the challenge of implementing thestrategy, entailing far-reaching changes of the way society works. Whatkind of strategy is required to bring about such long-term and radical
changes?
First and foremost, the strategy must permit flexibility. All parts ofthe strategy must be regularly reconsidered so that new knowledge andnew international agreements can be taken into account. This can beensured by follow-up of the whole strategy every fourth year or so withclimate policy decisions regarding objectives and further measures.
Secondly, the needs of different countries and the interests ofdifferent generations must guide us in both present-day decisions andcoming decisions throughout the time period. This has been a guiding
principle in our work and should continue to guide the choice ofobjectives.
Thirdly, the measures needed will affect societal structures that arebinding over a long period of time, and investments must be long-term sothat emissions of greenhouse gases are minimized. Furthermore,
research and development must be stimulated.
These requirements are predicated on the ability of the democraticsystem to bring about the necessary changes. This in turn requires a
population that has been made to understand why such changes arenecessary.

26 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

SOU 2000:23

It will probably be difficult to reduce emissions in the future as well.
It is therefore necessary to prioritize measures that will enable us tocontinue reducing emissions far below the current level over a time spanof 50 years. Many types of measures that lead to positive results in alonger time perspective will not lead to such great effects or will havehigh costs during the next ten years, but may nevertheless be important
for the long-term transformation.
As mentioned above, we wish to emphasize the necessity of a
massive effort to disseminate knowledge regarding the climate problem
and regarding how the general public, companies and organizations cancontribute. The initiatives that are now being proposed to meet thethreat against the climate therefore need to be accompanied by a broad
information campaign. At the same time, a broad package of measures
will be launched and implemented on an escalating timetable. The
contents of the package among other things include the following
components of a long-term nature.
The physical planning of society, location of human settlements, anddesign of buildings and such social infrastructure as will affect themagnitude of our emissions perhaps a hundred years ahead in time must
be reviewed. It is also important that the further expansion of thetransport infrastructure be aimed at facilitating the development ofenvironmentally responsible transport, and at preparations for eventually
reducing the use of fossil fuels by half.
In the energy field, further attention must also be given to energy
conservation and to converting the energy supply system to renewableenergy sources.
Technology breakthroughs for energy supply and transportation aredesirable, and development efforts are being conducted on many fronts.
We consider research to be vital for future progress in this field.
Research, along with economic incentives, contributes towards the
emergence and implementation of new technology.
Attention should be given in current and future policymaking in otherpolicy areas as well to the long-term consequences of decisions in termsof whether they lead to increased or reduced emissions of greenhousegases or improvements in energy efficiency. Policy decisions with longterm consequences for human settlements and infrastructure give
signals for the future. They lock resource use for a long time to comeand influence human behaviour. It is therefore of particular importancethat long-term decisions in policy areas of importance for greenhousegas emissions be subject to thorough strategic environmental
assessment at the highest level and broad democratic consensusbuilding.

SOU 2000:23

2.3.3

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 27

Bearing on other policy areas

Most policy areas have a direct or indirect bearing on climate policy.
Those policy areas that are particularly important from a climate
policy perspective are energy, transport and communication, business,
agriculture and forestry, and consumer and finance policy. Conflicting
objectives in the different policy areas may necessitate weighing
together of different interests. One example of this is the fact that
economic policy, including tax policy, affects consumption. Increased
prosperity generally leads to increased consumption, which today meansincreased use of fossil fuels, energy and transport. Property tax
influences incentives for making energy savings, and energy and carbon
dioxide taxes on fuels can influence new car buyers to choose a fuelefficient model.
We wish to emphasize that all of these policy areas should be taken
into consideration in forging a future climate policy. So far, however,interest in greenhouse gas emissions has mainly been focused on theenergy and transport sectors.
The energy policy bill (Gov. Bill 1996/97:84) A sustainable energy
supply has been an important point of departure for our work. There
are many relationships between the climate issue and energy policy as
regards use of fossil fuels for heating or electricity generation. We havefound that our assignment has not included a review of the entire energy
policy, but has limited us to those energy aspects that we deem to havethe greatest influence on use of fossil fuels. We have therefore chosen
to discuss options for replacing fossil fuels with renewable fuels inheating and electricity generation. Of the scenarios we have studied, we
have observed that demand for electricity is projected to increase andjudge that energy efficiency improvements for the purpose of reducing
consumption of both electricity and heat can in the long term facilitate
the changeover to an energy supply based on renewable energy
sources, so that the use of fossil fuels for heating or electricity
generation does not have to increase further down the road.
According to the Committee’s terms of reference, we should also
take account of what has been set forth in the Government Bill
Transport policy for sustainable development (1997/98:56). Since
this bill was framed, international commitments have grown inimportance, and transport-related carbon dioxide emissions are
estimated to be increasing faster than was then projected.
Furthermore, a strategic analysis has been presented ofinfrastructure planning for the period 2002–2011, where the alternatives
that involve further road construction may lead to increased emissions
compared with if the roads are not built. Although the increase in roadcapacity is not as important as economic growth for the increase of

28 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

SOU 2000:23

transport-related emissions, the infrastructure expansion we choose will
nevertheless be of importance for travel patterns and choice oftransport mode for a long time to come. Further policy instruments may
therefore be needed to limit these emissions.
Owing to the changes in premises that have occurred since thetransport policy bill, we judge that there is a need for measures to limit
emissions from transport. We are therefore submitting several proposals
aimed at reducing these emissions. However, it has not been possible
within the limited time available to carry out an exhaustive analysis of
the potential for emissions reductions in the transport sector.
It is urgent to identify interests and policy instruments within allpolicy areas that conflict with the implementation of the climate policy,
so that conflicting objectives can be clarified. Responsibility forweighing such conflicting interests and policy areas against each otherlies at the political level, i.e. with the Government and the Riksdag.
To ensure that climate aspects are taken into consideration in the
aforementioned areas, we believe that the terms of reference given tocommittees that deal with issues may or can affect the greenhouse gas
emissions should include climate policy considerations as a part of thecommission.
Another important aspect of the work of integrating the climate issue
in all policy areas is that government agencies and state activities shouldtake steps in their own organizations aimed at reducing emissions bye.g. energy conservation and – in procurements of vehicles, transport
services, travel, premises and contractors – by choosing options thatentail low greenhouse gas emissions and good energy conservation.
Furthermore, it is important that responsibilities and duties be definedfor those agencies that are of particular importance for climate policy.

2.4

Timing of the initiatives

There are many reasons why measures cannot be delayed. The mostimportant is the risk of severe climate effects. If and when they occur,
it may take a very long time to restore previous conditions. The
emissions trend points toward continued increases, and if we delay
adopting measures, it may be even more costly to make the necessary
adjustments from a higher level.
Most countries in Europe are now working intensively on their action
programmes. These programmes, and the potency of the policy
instruments being used to implement them, may affect competitive
conditions for companies within and between countries. These
measures are being adopted in parallel with our own, and it isSOU 2000:23

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 29

consequently important that there be an interaction, so that the Swedishmeasures can be adjusted according to what is happening elsewhere. At
the same time, it is necessary for achieving global success that countries
pursuing active climate efforts can serve as a good example, and webelieve Sweden can play an important role in this respect.
As described above, we believe that Sweden still needs to coordinate
the pace of its programmes with measures elsewhere, but this does notmean we should wait until we know more. The precautionary principle
applies here.
Due to technological progress, the costs per kilogram of emissions
reduction may fall in the future, which could be used as an excuse to
wait to adopt measures until they become cheaper. At the same time,
we believe that tougher requirements may stimulate the development of
new and cheaper technology, which may in turn lead to new products
and greater export earnings.
Besides the need to provide good examples for other countries, themost compelling reason not to delay measures is that current emissions
are further adding to the total quantity of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere and thereby worsening the situation. The higher theconcentrations become, the longer time will be needed to get them backto a less risky level.
Viewed in the perspective beyond 2050, climate scientists believethat emissions must be reduced further to achieve a situation that issustainable in the long term.
All factors considered, we therefore conclude that further measures
cannot wait and that the pace of the transition should be stepped up.

2.5

Choice of measures and instruments

The Committee is of the opinion that administrative, economic andinformative instruments are needed for implementation of the strategy.
In order to achieve the objective for 2008–2012, we have studied alarge number of possible measures proposed by government agencies.
We have made an evaluation of these measures, mainly with respect tocost-effectiveness, effects for enterprises and households, conflicting
environmental objectives, and potential for energy conservation. Certain
proposals have been rejected mainly for cost reasons. The majority ofthe measures should be introduced as soon as possible, since the costs
are reasonable in relation to the need for emissions reductions and they
improve the prospects for more permanent solutions. We submit
proposals for measures and instruments that are summarized inAppendix 1.

30 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

SOU 2000:23

In this context, the Committee would also like to note that the
proposals for measures offered by the government agencies cannot be
considered to represent a complete catalogue of measures. Certain
agencies have proposed broad packages of measures, others have been
more sparing with their proposals. There is therefore a considerable
need for further research and analysis by the concerned agencies. This
supplementary work must be commenced promptly so that thenecessary information will be available for future adjustments andrevisions of objectives and measures.
Provided that far-reaching measures are introduced, largely inkeeping with the government agency proposals, scenarios studies
indicate that the emissions level in 2010 may vary between 1.5 % and
13 % above the 1990 level. Several possible emissions-reducing
measures included in our proposal should contribute to further emissions
reduction beyond this, but quantitative figures are lacking. Moreover, it
should be possible for the agencies to come up with proposals forfurther measures.
This is however far from sufficient to achieve the short-term
objective for 2008–12 and thereafter the long-term objective. Besides
proposals for measures, additional policy instruments are therefore
needed, mainly economic ones, in order for the short-term objective tobe achieved.
The additional policy instruments that are being considered are raised
taxes, for example energy and carbon dioxide tax, and the introductionof flexible mechanisms, such as emissions trading, described in the
Kyoto Protocol.
The Committee considers emissions trading and other flexible
mechanisms described in the Kyoto Protocol to be a part of the global
solution to the climate problem. As far as emissions trading isconcerned, it is not expected to be able to the applied globally before
2008. However, emissions trading could become a reality earlier within
limited regions, for example the EU. If the EU system is long in coming
or not sufficiently widespread, a national emissions trading systemshould be considered.
A great deal of uncertainty exists concerning the rules, the scope
and the design of an emissions trading system, as well as a timetable for
introduction, so we do not wish at this time to recommend this system as
the only general solution for the coming decade.
To find a good and lasting solution, the nature of the different policy
instruments and their combined effects and interaction must first be
clarified. The timetable for further steps will therefore largely
determined be by when the rules for emissions trading are decided on

SOU 2000:23

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 31

within the framework of international negotiations and initiatives within
the EU.
Further enquiries regarding flexible mechanisms, including emissions
trading, ongoing enquiries regarding the energy tax system, and theoutcome of immediately adopted measures will therefore determine how
the different policy instruments will be combined with each other. In thejudgement of the Committee, this should be able to be clarified within
two to three years, after which a final proposal can be formulated.
Against the background of what has been said here, the Committee
believes that it should be possible to make a decision regarding changedenergy or carbon dioxide tax and emissions trading and a combination ofthese measures during 2003–2004. The Committee is anxious that theenquiries required on both a national and international level be
conducted as quickly as possible. The Committee considers it
advantageous if the timetable can be shortened. The combination andthe potency of the policy instruments should be guided by the prospectsof meeting the interim target for 2005. Developments in the next few
years will form a basis for a forecast of emissions in 2005.
The Committee is convinced that, in addition to the package ofmeasures proposed to be put into effect immediately, substantiallystrengthened policy instruments will be required in the form of changedenergy or carbon dioxide tax and emissions trading if the short-termtarget of a 2 % reduction compared with 1990 is to be met, followed byfurther emissions reductions.
We find that a massive information campaign is necessary to create
understanding for the changes in instruments that are required. It is alsoessential that people be made to understand the relationship between the
climate problem and the use of oil and petrol or other activities thatcause climate-affecting emissions.
It is also important in the long perspective that the message thatmeasures and instruments will be needed for a long time be spread toeveryone – public bodies, enterprises and households – so that they inturn can behave in a way that contribute towards the changeover, e.g.
by taking steps to reduce the use of fossil fuels. If individuals andcompanies are given information on coming changes at an early stage,
they will be able to make their own decisions on when and how theyshould respond.
For these reasons, greater knowledge is needed at all levels and in all
sectors of society for the purpose of increasing awareness of the
problems of climate change and what measures can be taken to reduce
the risks.

32 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

2.6

SOU 2000:23

Action programme

The action programme consists of international efforts and national
measures. The more far-reaching changes, such as introduction ofemissions trading or changes in energy or carbon dioxide tax, require aperiod of preparation and information to the general public and thebusiness sector.
To implement the action programme we propose a base package ofmeasures that can be approved and introduced more or lessimmediately, plus a supplementary package of measures to be
implemented later on.
The supplementary package includes measures and instruments that
permit further emissions reductions beyond the base package, but
require further consideration. The solution of having certain measures ina supplementary package makes it possible to choose the scope andcombination of these measures at a later time.
Assessments of the prospects of meeting the interim objective for2005 will determine the composition and scope of the policy instrumentsin the supplementary package. Naturally, an assessment will then also
be made of the prospects of meeting the short-term objective for theperiod 2008–2012.
In a review conducted every fourth year, major Swedish climate
policy decisions can be projected for 2004 and 2008. Decisions will haveto be made not later than 2008 for follow-up of the Climate Convention
with new future objectives. Decisions regarding further measures will
be made at future follow-ups after that.

2.6.1

Central issues in the joint international work

Based on the above considerations, the committee presents thefollowing proposal for the focus of Swedish efforts in the joint
international work.
• Provided that international negotiations resolve outstanding questionsin accordance with the agreed-upon timetable, Sweden will be able
to ratify the Kyoto Protocol in 2002.
• Sweden shall be a driving force in the international work to reducegreenhouse gas emissions to a sustainable level.
• When the Kyoto Protocol enters into force, we presume thatemissions trading and other flexible mechanisms described in the
Kyoto Protocol will be a part of the global solution to the climate
problem.

SOU 2000:23

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 33• Sweden should be a driving force within the EU for the introductionof European trading in emission rights for greenhouse gases, and forallowing countries outside the Union in the system to join the system.

2.6.2

Central measures in the base package

Based on the above considerations, the Committee submits the following
proposals for central measures in the base package, involving initiatives
throughout society.
• A broad-based information campaign is carried out aimed at thegeneral public and the rest of society regarding the greenhouseeffect and ways in which climate effects can be limited by individual
measures, as well as the necessity of tougher policy instruments.
The information should be formulated in collaboration with publicagencies, the business community and trade-union organizations,municipalities and non-governmental organizations.
• An extensive package of measures and policy instruments based on
the proposals of different agencies is put into effect.
• Government agencies draw up plans within their spheres to reducegreenhouse gas emissions and conserve energy. The purpose is toset in motion a process to explore the potential for measures, submit
proposals, identify policy instruments, implement and follow up
adopted measures.
• Enquiries and planning of additional measures are commenced sothat current climate measures are expanded to embrace all sectorsof society and all greenhouse gases covered in the Kyoto Protocol.
• State activities should also reduce emissions by means of e.g. energy
conservation measures in their own operations and – inprocurements of vehicles, transport services, travel, premises andcontractors – by choosing options that entail low greenhouse gas
emissions and energy conservation. It is important to given attention
to the climate issue in the development of environmental
management systems in state activities as well.
• Work with different forms of environmental agreements with thebusiness sector is developed and evaluated.
• Swedish preparations are intensified to introduce emissions tradingfor greenhouse gases which, in addition to the EU’s proposals in theGreen Paper, also include carbon dioxide emissions from additional
sectors such as the transport sector and the industrial, residential andcommercial sector, with the aim of also including emissions of othergreenhouse gases as soon as possible. These preparations should

34 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

SOU 2000:23

include the option of a national system, if the EU system takes toolong to implement or is not of large enough scope.
• Swedish preparations for implementation of other flexible
mechanisms described in the Kyoto Protocol.
• The coordination of efforts at Government level should be
strengthened for planning and management of implementation of the
future national climate policy.
• It is proposed that a Climate Council be established at the
government agency level.

2.6.3

Central measures in the supplementary
package

Measures in the supplementary package will be of interest when theoutcome of the base package is known and when the effectiveness ofthe different policy instruments has become clear. Based on the above
considerations, the Committee submits the following proposals forcentral measures in the supplementary package.
The following measures are included in the supplementary package:• introduction of the following policy instruments, singly or in
combination:-emissions trading,-changed energy or carbon dioxide tax,-other flexible mechanisms described in the Kyoto Protocol,• possible broadening or amendment of measures adopted previously,• implementation of proposals for measures submitted by government
agencies,• implementation of environmental agreements,• implementation of measures for sinks according to the Kyoto
Protocol,• broadened use of biofuels,• implementation of other enquiries.

SOU 2000:23

2.7

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 35

Timetable for implementation

Swedish activities are intended unless otherwise specified.
Year

Activity

2000 (Spring)

Report of Climate Committee.

2000 (Autumn)

Budget bill includes appropriations for measures that arecommenced in 2001. Bill on climate strategy is submitted to
Riksdag.

2000 (December) and Decision by Riksdag on budget bill and special climate
2001 (Spring)
policy bill.
2001

Implementation of base package is commenced.

2002

Kyoto Protocol is ratified.

2002 (Autumn)

Preparations forcommenced.

2003

Proposals for further measures are submitted.

2004

Bill and decision on future action programme.

2004-2005

Supplementary package is introduced.

2005

Reporting to the Climate Convention on ”demonstrable
progress” in accordance with Article 3.2 of the Kyoto
Protocol.

2007-2008

Third climate policy decision.

next

climatepolicydecisionare

The timetable should be regarded as an explanation of the chronology ofdifferent initiatives, and measures may be adopted earlier if there isreason for this. As previously stated, the Committee considers thatmeasures should be implemented at the pace that is possible in view ofthe fact that different measures are connected to and dependent oneach other and interact for the purpose of achieving the short-term
objective for the period 2008–2012.

2.8

Implementation and responsibilities

The purpose of the implementation of the national strategy to reducegreenhouse gas emissions is that we in Sweden should shoulder our36 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

SOU 2000:23

share of the responsibility for reducing the risks of serious climatechange.
Implementation entails that virtually all sectors of society will be
more or less affected by our proposals. Such a strategy requires a clear
division of responsibilities, collaboration, coordination, and follow-up andevaluation. These requirements lead to certain observations concerning,and proposals for division of, duties and responsibilities.
The decision of the Riksdag regarding the national climate policy also
involves a weighing-together of different policy areas. Implementing thestrategy involves complex trade-offs between preventing problems frombecoming very serious and allowing for an increase in prosperity.
Striking a balance between short- and long-term needs, between theenvironment and the economy, and between different measures andtheir socio-economic consequences will require careful consideration
and adequate information.
A balance must also be struck between economic development in a
10-year versus a 100-year perspective, and between the different
groups that will adopt and pay for the measures. Such considerations
and policy stands are political and must be made at a political level.
Climate policy should therefore be reviewed at least once during eachterm of parliament. One way to do this would be to appoint a new
Climate Committee for each term.
Feedback of the results of the climate policy pursued, based onfollow-up and evaluation, is particularly urgent. This feedback should
focus on whether the objectives are attained by the measures adopted
and policy instruments used so that Sweden is able to fulfil its
international commitments.
This reporting is important both for the further decisions of the
Riksdag and for the Riksdag’s dialogue with the citizens.
The Government bears overall responsibility for implementation of
the strategy. The Government reports to the Riksdag on results, whatchanges or additional measures should be adopted, and whether theobjectives/targets need to be revised.
Implementation will require careful coordination within the
Government Offices, since several ministries and many agencies are
involved. For this reason, the committee proposes that coordination
within the Government Offices be strengthened. The committee
recommends an organizational solution that ensures a clear politicalinfluence and provides sufficient secretariat resources for the purpose.
The reasons for the proposal are the international commitments, theneed for coordination of measures between several policy areas, thelong-term view that characterizes the decisions, and the balance thatmust be struck between objectives within and between policy areas.

SOU 2000:23

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 37

Many agencies are vital to the implementation of the strategy. The
agencies have contributed their input to the Committee with regard to
proposals for measures. One experience of the Committee’s work isthat the agencies’ work has contributed to a buildup of knowledge at theconcerned agencies. The Committee considers it essential that theagencies continue their work of refining proposals for measures andinstruments.
The Committee proposes that concerned agencies be given a clear
responsibility to report emissions statistics and submit proposals formeasures and instruments, and to provide feedback in the form ofresults. The statistics should be specified in instructions andappropriations letters.
The Committee proposes that a Climate Council be establishedconsisting of the agencies that most involved in the implementation of
the climate policy. The Committee should be advisory and support theSwedish Environmental Protection Agency in its current agency duties
regarding implementation of the climate policy and subsequent reporting.
The Council should thereby assist in gathering data for an overall
evaluation and to ensure implementation of the climate policy.
The regional and local levels are essential in an implementation of
the climate policy. County administrative boards, county councils andmunicipalities are knowledgeable in their sphere of responsibility
regarding what constructive and cost-effective initiatives can be taken
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and energy use. As the state’s
coordinating bodies in the counties, the county administrative boards
have an important role in monitoring the climate issue within e.g. thecounty’s economic sector and within energy and transport planning.
In summary, the Committee’s proposal aims at the adoption of
measures in all sectors of society to reduce climate gas emissions. The
administrative and economic instruments, along with information, apply
to the whole of society in the implementation of the climate policy.
Different information activities will be carried out so that bothhouseholds and business entities can make decisions in the light of theneed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Such information should
enhance knowledge and awareness and thereby encourage participation
so that the necessary measures can be implemented in both the shortand long run.

38 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

2.9

SOU 2000:23

State expenditures and financing

Expenditures for proposed measures
The costs of the base package for the budget years 2001–2004 areestimated at about SEK 1,200, 1,300 1,600 and 1,600 million,
respectively. The cost of the measures in the base package for theentire period 2001–2020 is estimated at SEK 11,000 million. We believethat more accurate cost calculations should be made in conjunction withthe budget process.
An intensification of the climate work with information activities, aid forlong-range changes and greater work within agencies entails increased
state expenditures. Approximate changes in state expenditures formeasures in the base package from 2001 through 2004 and financing
options are described below. Financing of measures from 2005 isdependent on what main instruments will be chosen from the
supplementary package, above all emissions trading and changes inenergy and carbon dioxide taxes.

2.9.1

Proposed expenditures

The calculation of state expenditures for our proposals is based on theagencies’ estimates of how much the measures will cost the state. In
some cases, figures have been taken from other sources or calculatedby the Committee in accordance with the descriptions in Chapters 3–13.
We wish to emphasize that the figures are uncertain and we therefore
judge that more accurate cost estimates for the measures need to bemade by each agency in dialogue with the Government Offices.
Priorities may need to be reallocated within each expenditure area, andin the budget process among different expenditure areas.
In calculating appropriations and the extent of the emissions
abatement work for 2001, it is urgent to get under way quickly in orderto achieve emissions reductions by 2003–2005. At the same time, thetime for planning and start-up will probably be relatively short for theconcerned agencies. We therefore consider it need to underscore theimportance of more accurate cost calculations, projection of potential
results for each measure, and planning for follow-up of results.
The expenditures for the budget years 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004
have been estimated at about SEK 1,200, 1,300 1,600 and 1,600 million,
respectively.

SOU 2000:23

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 39

We would like to emphasize that many of the measures we propose
may also contribute to achieving other environmental objectives, and thecosts should be regarded in this perspective. We have not distributed thecosts between the climate objective and other objectives, but charge theentire cost to the climate objective in our calculations. Particulars on
effects on other environmental objectives are given in Appendix 4 to thisreport.
Table 2.1 shows approximate figures for state expenditures for theyears up to and including 2010 stemming from the proposed measuresand instruments in the base package. A more detailed account of state
expenditures for the individual measures is given in Appendix 2.
Table 2.1 Approximate scope of state expenditures formeasures and instruments in the base package, SEK millions
2001

2002

2003

2004 Period
2005-2010

Total for
period2001–2010
1,8501)2,7001)

Energy and
100
150
300
300
transformationindustries, refineries
Industry
90
110
110
110
100
520
Residential, commercial
30
70
160
160
370
790
and institutional
Transport
180
220
280
430
2,980
4,090
Other measures and
760
760
750
650
0
2,920
instruments
Total sum
1,200 1,300 1,600 1,600
5,3001) 11,0001)
1)
expenditures for the wind power programme are included, but complete data
are lacking, so state expenditures after 2005 may be higher.

The summed column refers to all measures in the base package.
Several will also be in effect during the period 2005–10. The costs maychange after 2004, depending on what measures are chosen at the time.

2.9.2

Financing options

The Committee describes alternative options for financing, which
provide considerably more funds than the expenditures entailed by our
proposals.

40 Proposed Swedish climate strategy

SOU 2000:23

Options
In the final choice of financing, we recommend that the climatic impactof the financing alternative be taken into consideration as much as
possible.
An increase in the energy tax on electricity by 1 öre/kWh (100 öre =SEK 1) would bring an additional SEK 620 million into the nationaltreasury in 2001, SEK 560 million in 2002, SEK 540 million in 2003 andSEK 560 million in 2004. The permanent effect will be slightly lower.
This can enter into force from January 2001, provided it has been dealt
within in the budget bill.
In order to prevent carbon dioxide emissions from increasing as aresult of general economic growth, the indexation of the carbon dioxide
tax should be tied to the GDP. This can be done in the same way as forcalculation of the percentage target for foreign aid. Assuming that thenominal GDP is 1 percentage point higher than the CPI, revenue should
increase by SEK 580 million each year. With another construction, theamounts could of course be slightly different. This question requires
study, and depending on its magnitude the change could take place with
the indexation for 2002 or 2003.
Differentiated sales tax could be imposed on new cars with regard totheir carbon dioxide emissions. Assuming a mean value of SEK 5,000
per new car, this would generate annual revenue of about SEK 1,100
million for the public sector. The strengthening of the public treasury is
estimated to amount to SEK 1,260 million in 2003 and SEK 1,100 million
in 2004, provided the proposal enters into force in 2003.
If the vehicle tax is increased for all cars, including diesel-powered,by SEK 200 per car, tax revenues will increase by nearly SEK 730
million per year. This can enter into force from 2001. It is proposed thatthe increase in the vehicle tax be differentiated according toconsumption of fossil fuel for cars put into service from 1 January 2001.
(The differentiation cannot be imposed on older cars due to an EC
directive that says that the car manufacturers cannot be required tofurnish emissions figures for these older cars). Differentiation requires
study and could be introduced later than an increase.
Remaining appropriations of around SEK 1,000 million for the local
investment programmes are transferred to the climate programmes(KLIMP).
Costs in conjunction with bodily injuries in traffic accidents aretransferred to the compulsory third-party insurance, reducing state
expenditures. Depending on which costs are transferred, the statebudget would be relieved of between SEK 2,100 and 3,800 million(Riksdagens Utredningstjänst Dnr 1997:2170). The measure would also
encourage a smoother driving style, which also affects emissions. The

SOU 2000:23

Proposed Swedish climate strategy 41

possibilities of EU aid for measures in the strategy should be explored.
The financing alternatives have been compiled in the following table.
Table 2.2 Financing options, SEK millions per year
Financing option

2001

2002

2003

2004

Increased electricity tax (tax on electric power),assume increase of 1 öre/kWh

620

560

540

560

Indexation of the general carbon dioxide tax is
tied to the GDP from 2002.

0

580

1,160

1,740

1,260

1,100

Differentiated sales tax on new cars. The tax
increases with increasing carbon dioxide
emissions.
Increased vehicle tax on all cars. The vehicle
tax is differentiated according to carbon
dioxide emissions for cars put into service
from 1 January 2001. For older cars, the current
system provides some incentive.

800

800

800

800

Transfer of appropriations from local
investment programmes, SEK 1,000 million, todistribute during 2001, 2002, 2003.

200

400

400

0

Changes in motor third-party insurance

2,100

2,100

2,100

2,100

The committee has considered it reasonable to describe alternative
options to the Government, which has an overview and can coordinate
with other enquiries and thereby choose the alternative that is best
overall.