summary cover

21/9/98 5:12 pm

Page 2E x p l oringS u s t a i nableD e v e l o pment

W B C S D

G l o b a l

S c e n a r i o s

S u m m a r y

2 0 0 0 - 2 0 5 0

B r o c h u r esummary

21/9/98 5:09 pm

Page 1E x p l o r i n g
S u s t a i n a b l e
D e v e l o p m e n t

Contents

W o r l d

B u s i n e s s

Foreword

2

Scenarios—Thinking and Acting on the Future

4

The Challenge of Sustainable Development

6

The New, the Many, the Connected

11

The Scenarios

17

FROG!

20

GEOpolity

22

Jazz

24

Business and Sustainable Development

27

Scenario Project Participants28

C o u n c i l

G l o b a l

f o r

S u s t a i n a b l e

S c e n a r i o s

S u m m a r y

2 0 0 0 - 2 0 5 0

B r o c h u r e

D e v e l o p m e n t

summary

21/9/98 5:09 pm

Page 2F o r e w o r d"Sustainability," or "sustainable development," is a topic of our age and by its
nature is ambiguous and elusive. As our extensive interviews showed, many canbe emotional about the subject without fully defining what it is. We need not beashamed of this, for to explore sustainability at this juncture in human history is toraise fundamental questions of how humanity defines itself and how each one ofus comes to terms with the challenges of the 21st century.
We started with the Brundtland Commission's definition of sustainable
development: “Humanity has the ability to make development sustainable—toensure that it meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of
future generations to meet their own

Sustainability
Domains

needs.” Our own explorations ofMythssustainability identified these major
Economy&Technology

Governance&
Equitycomponents: economy andtechnology; ecology and demography;
and governance and equity. These

Ecology&
Demography

components we saw as being
embedded in the prevailing myths—
those deep premises about how theworld works, which we take for

granted. In industrial and trading societies the economic myth of self-interest
dominates. We have built scenarios to illustrate a number of plausible routes
forward that pose challenges for business.
Scenarios do not claim to be, and are not, value free. They recognise that we2

summary

21/9/98 5:09 pm

Page 3are prisoners of our own mindsets and language, and that understanding can befurthered with a new word or image, and especially a new story. We know our
successors will have a richer language to discuss sustainability, and our task is toshine a light in their direction.
I believe that sustainability recognises that individuals want it all: humandignity; prosperity; and care for the planet. People are no longer happy withtradeoffs; they demand to know how you are going to deliver their wishes. So,
much is asked of business in this area. If business can respond to people's needs
with humanity and responsibility, it can shape the world of the 21st century.
This brochure contains an outline of the WBCSD Global Scenarios. We havededicated the scenarios to those who wish to explore the future and challenge
their understanding of how the world might unfold. We recognise that ecosystems
are complex and not well understood; we have fuzzy limits to growth. But we knowthat the real limits to growth lie inside us, not outside; and that we cannot be fully
human without being sensitive to the needs of the planet—the home ofthose to come.

Ged Davis
Director, WBCSD Global Scenarios Project
London, November 19973

summary

21/9/98 5:09 pm

Page 4

Scenarios —Thinking and Acting on the Future
Scenarios are powerful tools for addressing what is both fundamentallysignificant and profoundly unknowable—the future. Unlike forecasts, which
impose patterns extrapolated from the past onto the future, scenarios areplausible, pertinent, alternative stories that are concerned more with strategic
thinking than with strategic planning, and more specifically with the quality of thatthinking. As we enter these alternative stories, we are guided to practice a flexible
approach to the future and to alter our mental maps. Scenarios attempt to lookbeyond our more limited mind-sets, recognising that possibilities are influenced
by a wide range of people and that many views of the world are different
from our own.

Building Scenarios

The construction of scenarios for an organisation requires clarity about theoverall focus or theme. This clarity arises from an appreciation of the users’ mental
maps and the current strategic agenda.
When the focus or theme has been clarified, the main areas of required
research are identified, and information gathered. At this stage, participants need
to be far-ranging, deliberately taking in a wide range of views so as to construct abasis for creative thinking, and to get "outside the box."
The next step is to identify and analyse driving forces that will shape theenvironment. What will persist and can be forecast (for example, demography in4summary

21/9/98 5:09 pm

Page 5many exercises), and what may change and is unknown? Following theidentification of the driving forces, we can now contemplate a set of plausible
storylines. These will need to be structured, the relevant interconnections
identified, and the scenario logics, including discontinuities, defined. The
scenarios are then usable as new frames of reference.

Scenarios have many applications:

Using Scenarios- to enrich debate and widen the "strategic conversation" in the organisation.
The aim here is to bring new concepts and understanding to users, and,ultimately, to change mental maps.
- to search for corporate resilience, including making risky decisions moretransparent. This involves identification of threats and opportunities and thecreation and assessment of options.
- to trigger a formal strategic planning process, including the assessment ofexisting strategies and plans.

Bringing Scenarios to
the Business

Following the production of these global scenarios, the next step is thebuilding of focused industry or corporate scenarios. This is just the start, for agood set of scenarios is only the foundation—but a significant foundation—for
customised strategy development in an organisation.

5

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 6The Challenge of Sustainable Development

The last 50 years have seen extraordinary growth in world prosperity. Even
though population has more than doubled, global per capita income has almostLife Expectancy
and Education

tripled. Most of us live longer

Population withbasic education (%)
100

Years at birth70

and are better educated andIndustrialised economies

65

75

grandparents. In addition, the

60
50

55

fed than our parents orrate of population growth is50

Developing countries

25
45

slowing.
Economic success has

40
1950

1970

1990

0
1950

1970

1990

Source: World Resources Institute, 1996

carried with it a heavy burden
on the environment and thequality of life—a burden that is

Global Food
Production

Calories / day / person
3000

2750

increasing as many formerly
underdeveloped parts of the

Average daily requirements *world choose to follow the route2500

of the more prosperous and

2250
2000
1950

demand their share of the earth's
resources. Global warming,
1960

1970

1980

1990

reduction in the ozone layer,* Average of FAO estimates of daily calorie requirements per person

Source: FAO, World Food Survey, 1996

6

resource depletion (especiallysummary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 7

State of the World
Environment
1950-1997

fresh water, fisheries, and

1. Population

1950
2.5

1972
3.8

1997
5.8

top-soil), loss of rainforests and2. Megacities

2

9

25

the accompanying reduction in

3. Food

1980

2450

2770

4. Fisheries

19

58

91

5. Water Use

1300

2600

4200

6. Rainforest Cover

100

85

70

growth in infrastructure systems

7. Elephants

6.0

2.0

0.6

—all these are increasing the

8. CO2 Emissions

1.6

4.9

7.0

stress on the biosphere, leading

9. Ozone Layer

_

1.4

3.0

Key
1. billion persons

6. index of forest cover, 1950=100

2. cities with population greater than 8 million

7. million animals
3. average daily food production in calories / capita 8. annual CO emissions in billion
2tons of carbon
4. annual fish catch in million tons
9. atmospheric concentration of
CFCs in parts / billion

5. annual water use in cubic kilometresbiodiversity, the pressures ofurbanisation, and the rapid

many people to conclude that
we will reach the limits of theearth's capacity to carry theseburdens in the next 50 years.

Source: World Resources Institute, 1996

Others argue that the state of
Efficiency ofElectricity
Generation

the environment isn’t all that

% efficiency
80

60

40

Thermodynamic limit
New combined-cycle
gas turbine

New coal plants

bad. Air pollution in some of theworld’s major urban areas has
been greatly reduced. Moreover,the increase in efficiency thathas come from new

20

Coal - industry averagedevelopments in technology
offers hope that we can solve01880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

the problems that face us. But

we have no reason to be complacent. History informs us that diffusion oftechnology is a time-consuming process, and that we may take up to a half
7

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 8Ten Global Threats to Ecosystem Viability
1. Loss of crop and grazing land due to erosion, desertification, conversionof land to non-farm uses, and other factors—currently totalling a loss ofabout 20 million hectares a year.
2. Depletion of the world’s tropical forests, leading to loss of resources,
soil erosion, flooding, and loss of biodiversity—currently at a rate of about
10 million hectares a year.
3. Extinction of species, principally from the global loss of habitat, and theassociated loss of genetic diversity—currently over 1000 plant and animal
species becoming extinct each year.
4. Rapid population growth.
5. Shortages of fresh water resources.
6. Overfishing, habitat destruction, and pollution in the marine
environment—25 of the world’s most valuable fisheries are alreadyseriously depleted due to overfishing.
7. Threats to human health from mismanagement of pesticides andhazardous substances, and from waterborne pathogens.
8. Climate change probably related to increasing concentrations ofgreenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
9. Acid rain and, more generally, the effects of a complex mix of air
pollutants on fisheries, forests, and crops.
10. Pressures on energy resources, including shortages of fuelwood.
century to incorporate major technological changes into basic systems such as
agriculture, energy, and transport. Our capacity to absorb new technology may
depend less on its availability than on our ability to appreciate its importance andthe willingness of society to entertain a change of mind. In many cases, only thesynergy of a number of technological developments, together with social learning,allows new opportunities to be seized.
8

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 9Technology and economic success can change the nature of risk forindividuals and societies. But sustainable development is concerned with morethan the management of man-made environmental vulnerabilities. We must not
only balance present and future prosperity, but we must also ensure a measure ofsocial equity for all. Our inability to do so may lead to the misery of war and social
conflict. It is here we look to enlightened governance to ensure that humaningenuity can be focused on creation rather than destruction.
We are dealing with complex human and ecological systems over longtime-frames. Whatever we think about where we are in relation to the criticalthresholds of the earth's carrying capacity, the simple truth is: no one knows.
While we know a great deal about many aspects of our environment, we don’tknow enough about the limits. We know about the toxicity of many chemicals but
much less about their interactions; we don’t know how much solid waste, CO2,
and other wastes the natural systems can absorb; we don’t know what would
constitute sustainable yields of fish; we don’t know what level of vegetation isneeded for life support; we don’t know how much biodiversity is required tomaintain robustness; we don’t know how all these ecosystems interact with one
another; and, most important, we“How many people is the earth able to sustain? don’t know how human beings will
The question is incomplete as it stands. One
must modify the question by asking further: At
what level of technology? And modify it still
further by asking: At what level of humandignity?” - Isaac Asimov
9

respond to the challenges that facethem.
Our ignorance makes
interpretation difficult and can be acause of inaction. What, forsummary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 10

example, is the extent of the gap between rich and poor that healthy societies cansustain? Are the environmental issues we focus on early indications of global
trends, or are they local failures to be expected in a turbulent world? Which will be
the most significant in the long run, and which are only of temporal or regional
importance? Because of the potential enormity of the problems we face, andbecause of our ignorance about the very conditions for our survival on the earth,many are tempted to keep on doing "business as usual" and hope for the best.
But we can’t wait until we know absolutely before we begin to act, because
inaction may have extremely serious consequences.
We can summarise the key uncertainties we face as follows:
1. What are the critical thresholds in soil, air, climate, water, and biodiversity,and how do we recognise these limits? How resilient is the global
ecosystem?
2. What human social systems can best respond to the challenge ofsustainable development?
Since we don’t know the answers to these questions, how can we respond?
How can we make decisions in a context that is both extremely important anddeeply uncertain—and that carries such profound risk?
Scenarios, such as those presented here, are designed to help us explore
these uncertainties and to enable a response—allowing us to face, withimagination and boldness, the challenge of sustainable development.

10

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 11T h e

N e w,T h e

M a n y,T h e

C o n n e c ted

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 12T h e N e w, T h e M a n y, T h e C o n n e c t e d

Of the many possible scenarios that could be constructed in response to thechallenge of sustainable development, all begin with three pre-determinedelements: the new, the many, and the connected. These are the driving forces thatshape the global business environment and that will persist in any scenario. They
form the common starting point from which the three stories emerge—and
then diverge.

The New

Social and technological innovations lead to many new products andprocesses, and these will inevitably affect sustainability. Biotechnology, forexample, offers an astonishing array of new opportunities and ethical choices.
The Grameen Bank, which pioneered micro-credit agencies in Bangladesh,

The Next Eraof Computing

Hardware cost for humanPower (bits / second)equivalence (1990$)/ unit cost (1990$)
103
1012"Human equivalence" in a personal computer

promises to have as great an
impact on people’s lives there
as any development in"Human equivalence" in a supercomputer

106

109

100

1015

10-6

1021

technology. Even more, thesynergy of these innovations
interacting together will change

1900

1920

gallium arsenide
microprocessor
integrated circuit

12

1940

1960

hybrid chiptransistor
vacuum tube

1980

2000

relay
mechanical2020

our world in ways we can’t
predict. The information
technology revolution, a driver ofsummary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 13what is often called the "fifth wave" of technology, is only in its very beginnings.
In addition to social and technological innovations, another important area of

the new concerns the economy, which has an increasing number of new
players—new countries entering the global trading regime; new businesses; newpartnerships among established businesses; non-governmental organisations(NGOs), which will assume a greater role in public debate and decision-making;the media, with its enormous power to sway public opinion, especially where
emotions are high; and the unpredictable outcomes arising from many of theseplayers interacting together in new ways.
Finally, we are at an essentially new moment in human history. For the firsttime, we are widely aware that our day-to-day decisions have the power todestroy our own habitat, the earth.

The Many

In the next 50 years, population
BillionWorld Population
1000-2050

12

12

10

10

8

8

"Green"revolution

6
4
Plague2

6Public healthrevolution
Industrial
revolution

will increase from 6 billion today to
9-11 billion. Material consumption
will grow substantially, putting an
enormous additional strain on
already stressed ecosystems. This

4

increase in people is accompanied
2

by an increase in the diversity of the
0
1000

1200

Source: United Nations

1400

1600

1800

2000

actors who influence how oursocieties and economies are shaped
and what decisions we make.

13

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 14

The Connected

We are connected more closely and in more ways than we had previously
realised, both to our fellow human beings and to the environment of which we area part. As the power of our technology grows, as our communication infrastructuredevelops, and as our economic systems become more inter-dependent, we are
creating a global "technosphere" to rival the global ecosystem. Its components arelinked together in a myriad of different inter-connections, so that what happens in
any one area has the potential to affect many others. At the same time, thistechnosphere relies completely on the global ecosystem to provide the natural
resources it uses and the sinks for the wastes that it produces.
The extent of our inter-connectedness has changed the speed with whichknowledge is transferred and problems are perceived—but not the speed withwhich these problems are solved. Social decisions are mediated by institutions
that were designed for a slower, more methodical approach to solving problems,
and these problems were assumed to come one by one. Now our problems seem
baffling in their interlinked complexity, and the slow and insufficient response of
our institutions leaves many people feeling frustrated and disillusioned.

Three Scenarios

Three scenarios have been developed to explore possible responses to thechallenge of sustainable development. These responses arise from habitualpatterns of thinking that form who we are, whether or not we are conscious ofthem. Such patterns—or "myths"—shape what we think is possible or real, andhow we talk to one another about the crises and opportunities that face us.

14

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 15The Economic Myth
“ Myth”—a belief or a subject of belief whose truth is accepted uncritically.
The hidden infrastructure of the world is the economic myth. We live in it without
thinking of it as a “myth” in the common sense of the word—something fabricated.
We accept its truth uncritically. We see the history of the world as an economic
history, not as the march of great men across a stage (hero myth), or as the working
out of the plans of God (religious myth). Nor is society held together by a belief inthe perfectability of human systems based on reason, which arises from thedemocratic/scientific myth.
Whatever form the economic myth takes, it displays three characteristics: its ideal
is growth; it is a horizontal, not a vertical myth (that is, it counts rather than evaluates);
and its medium is numbers and pictures—a medium which, lacking the barrier oflanguage, may explain why it is the first truly global myth. While this myth has many
strengths, its dominance has threatened the values embodied in earlier myths.
The myths that shape us cannot be artificially created; they have to arise
naturally, over time. That means that we have to learn all we can about theeconomic myth--what it fosters, what it threatens, and what it allows as new
possibilities. The stories we tellwithin it about who we are andHeroReligious Democratic/ Economic
Scientificwhat is possible will create the
Ideal
Excellence Goodness Truth
Growthfuture. If we choose, we candeclare the discovery of a new
Behaviour
Competition Obedience Reason
Maximisingworld—that blue pearl of theadvantageearth as photographed from
ActorsHeroesSaintsPhilosophers Consumers
Scientists
Business
space, the first view of theProphets
whole we’ve ever seen. This
Communication Stories
Scripture
LogicalImagesarguments Numbers
Prayers
image suggests a story about
Mathematics
M*
G
N
M
self-interest, the driving forceof the economic myth, that ismore complex and
N
G
N M
N G
M G
interconnected than any story
M = Manwe’ve ever told before.
*The triangles suggest which element takes precedence

The Myths That
Have Made Us

G = God
N = Nature

15(the top of the triangle) and which relationships are mostsignificant (the shaded band).

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 16

Thus, the point of divergence from what all the stories have in common—thenew, the many, the connected—arises when human actors respond in varying
ways to the challenge of sustainable development. This variation in human
response means that the branching point of the scenarios—what differentiates
them from one another—lies not so much in the ecosystem or in the social
system, but with us.
Will we simply ignore our social and environmental problems, trusting in the
dynamic of economic growth and the innovations of technology, as people do in
the FROG! story? Or, when problems reach a crisis point, will we turn away from
our ineffective institutions of government and business to seek new models ofgovernance—a GEOpolity—that will take into account the religious anddemocratic values our narrow economic myth seems to ignore? Or will we try toembody our growing environmental and social values within the economic
myth?—and, like Jazz players, experiment with ad hoc alliances and innovative
forms in a world where the way we "play" and everything else we do is open foreveryone to see and judge.

16

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 17T h e

S c e n a r i o ssummary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 18

Exploring Sustainable Development—G
The Challengeof Sustainable
Development● What are the critical thresholds in soil, air, climate, water, and biodiversity,and how do we recognise these limits? How resilient is the global
ecosystem?
● What human social systems can best respond to the challenge ofsustainable development?

The two questions are explored in different ways in the scenarios. In FROG!
the response is inadequate—the human social systems are unable to meet thechallenge of sustainable development, a challenge made more difficult by avulnerable natural system. In GEOpolity the response is to build an interlocking
governance structure coordinated at the international level. In Jazz markets areharnessed for finding solutions to sustainable development.
Resilient

Scenario
Dimensions

More
Sustainable
Resilenceof Global
Ecosystem

Jazz
Less
Sustainable

GEOpolity
Vulnerable

FROG!
Guidance to market

Extension of market
NOW

Human Social Systems
18

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 19velopment—Global Scenarios
Branching Points
GEOpolity

Jazz

Sustainable

Unsustainable

FROG!

New
Many

19

Connected

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 20

F RO G !
The world of FROG! is a familiar world—at least at first. Many nations
experience a fair degree of economic success, and, for almost all, economic
growth is the major concern, with sustainable development acknowledged to beimportant, but not pressing. As environmental NGOs continue to demand
enforcement of standards that have been set in global summits,“To get rich is glorious.”

those nations who are striving to develop argue that if the– Deng Xiaoping

developed nations insist on raising environmental standards, theyshould “First Raise Our Growth!” Indeed, in this scenario, somenations leapfrog from underdeveloped status to benchmarker in particular areasof technology. People in western nations respond in uneven ways—sometimes byoffering help in improving the environment, and sometimes in raising various criesof “FROG!” themselves,

Dynamics of
FROG!

Local focus
Weak global
cooperation(survival, jobs,
short-term returns)

especially in response toperceived threats fromunderdeveloped nations in the

Signals
not readareas of employment andcopyright and patent
infringement.

Insufficient
response
to ecologicalproblems

20

Ecologicalvulnerability

People value sustainable
development in the FROG!

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 21scenario—but it is not top priority. In addition, in the early years, environmental
health in many areas improves significantly. The improvement in local air quality,
solid waste management, and environmental education leads to a perception thatthe environment is in much better shape than it was in the late 1990s. But at the
global level, the picture is less clear. With economic growth and the increase inpopulation, greenhouse gases are rising, unnoticed by most. The signals are
difficult to read, and people disagree about what they mean—both the difficulty
and the disagreement are good reasons, it is felt, to continue to “First Raise Our
Growth!” But, by 2050 there is evidence that the darkest predictions about global
warming are actually nearer to the truth than the more optimistic ones.
In FROG!, the habitual reliance on technology has not been sufficient to solve
longer-term problems of either environmental or social health. Globalisation and“We learn geology the day after
the earthquake.”liberalisation of markets along with the pressures of– Ralph Waldo Emerson

inequity and unrest to a level that threatens basic

rapid urbanisation have raised the degree of social

survival of both human and environmental ecosystems.
In this scenario, people react like the proverbial frog: when placed in boilingwater, the frog leaped out of danger; but placed in cold water that was gradually
heated to the boiling point, the complacent frog was boiled to death.

21

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 22

GEOp o l i t y
GEOpolity begins with a succession of signals in the first two decades—some
real, some imagined—that an environmental and social crisis looms. The
prevailing "economic myth" is increasingly viewed as dangerously narrow. This isparticularly true in Asia, where rapid economic growth has meant that corners
have been cut and traditions lost. Because many institutions, especiallygovernments, have lost credibility as problem-solvers, people expect somethingfrom the new centres of power—multinationals. But the business sector seems“The hallmark of our age
is the tension between
related aspirations andsluggish institutions.”– John Gardner

unable or unwilling to respond adequately. Business is
distrusted, and in some cases, because of its prevailing
focus on narrow self-interest, is even perceived to behindering solutions to problems. Its actions are notcoordinated on a global level, and it seems to lack thewill even to address the problems.
Because neither governments nor businesses are effective in providing
leadership, people begin to look for new leaders and to demand new social
institutions. Some of these involve the strengthening of government—for example,"sustainable cities," "sustainable national accounting," and comprehensive
implementation of industrial ecology. Others are politically innovative. The
perceived need for strong and certain responses leads to a new global
consensus that welcomes technocratic solutions, sanctions, and more direct22

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 23

control of the market to ensure that environmental values andsocial cohesion are preserved. The impetus behind all these
movements is the growing consensus that the market has noinherent incentives to protect the commons, social welfare, or any
other non-economic values. In the absence of leadership frombusiness and government to solve problems, people form new global
institutions—such as the Global Ecosystem Organisation (GEO), which has broad
powers to design and enforce global standards and measures to protect theenvironment and preserve society—even if doing so requires economic sacrifice.
In Geopolity, governments are rejuvenated as focal points of civil society.
Indicators ofDevelopment

Governments seek to work

Per capita income
Index 2000=100
300

with markets rather than todisplace them. But they take

Gross world productthe lead in shifting thestructure of the economy

200
Sustainable
world producttowards sustainable
development in conjunction
with institutions such as GEO.

100
2000

23

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 24

Jazz
In the world of Jazz, diverse players join in ad hoc alliances to solve socialand environmental problems in the most pragmatic possible way. The key noteof this scenario is dynamic reciprocity. This is a world of social andtechnological innovations, experimentation, rapid adaptation, much voluntaryinterconnectedness, and a powerful and ever-changing global market.
What enables the quick learning and“At the same time that jazz depends on theindividual it also depends on cooperation.” subsequent innovation in Jazz is high– Martin Williams, “The Jazz Tradition”

transparency—the widespread availability of
information about ingredients of products,

sources of inputs, company financial, environmental, and social data,
government decision-making processes, and almost anything else concerned
consumers want to know. Many players are involved, in part because the way
information technology lowers barriers to entry allows new actors to step onto
the economic stage. And that stage itself is characterised by a global freemarket, sound legal systems, and a respect for property rights.
To the extent that government is involved, it is most active at the local level,with ad hoc global institutions arising to solve particular problems. Agreements
are reached through mediation in a world in which transparency is required,but particular "green" behaviours are not, even though such behaviours are
rewarded. Achievement of the new environmental and social standards occurs

24summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 25

largely out of self-interest. The public is made aware of transgressions andquickly acts against companies or countries that violate standards. Companies
have an interest in seeing that disputes do not escalate and indirectly harmthem. They monitor relationships with customers and suppliers closely and drop
risky partners quickly. In this highly competitive and interconnected world,
businesses see strategic

Socialcontributions
100

Measures ofCorporate
Performance

economic advantages in being

Leadership targets

perceived as environmentally2020 Performanceand socially responsible, and2015 Baseline

many become pro-active
leaders in responding to social

100
Financialperformance

100
Environmentalcare

and environmental challenges.

Jazz is a world in which

ACTB: Auditors

NGOs, governments,
concerned consumers, and businesses act as partners—or fail. Together, alongwith other players, they learn effective ways of incorporating environmental andsocial values into market mechanisms.

25

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 26

Sustainability Domains - Global Scenarios
Narrow
economic myth

FROG!
Ineffective
institutions

Shortening
horizons

Missedsignals

Competing myths

Myths

GEOpolity
Non-market
values shapedevelopment

Newgovernanceforms

Economy&Technology

Globalstandards

Ecology&
Demography

Evolving
economic myth

Jazz

Market andtechnology
innovations

Alliancesand social
experiments

Sustainable
development as"best practice"

26

Governance&
Equitysummary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 27B u s i n e s s

FROG!

a n d

S u s t a i n a b l e

D e v e l o p m e n t

Challenge to Business: clean your "spectacles"; make sure signals get through;learn from other people; take "social precautions."
Lessons: measurements for sustainability are needed and accepted globally;reading a broader set of signals is important (social and ecological, not justeconomic and financial); there is a lack of leadership and coordination between
business and government; keep some institutions alive—preparedness, so that if
you get a shock, you can deal with it; in a low-trust environment social costs could
be shifted onto business; need to think "out of the box."

GEOpolity

Challenge to Business: contribute, and, where possible, shape the emerging
debate on new institutions and rules for conduct in relation to environmental andsocial matters; move business into a position of influence.
Lessons: address your social license to operate; importance of understanding
governments and new global institutions.

Jazz

Challenge to Business: become involved early on in working with various
stakeholders to take on environmental and social matters as competitive issues, inan open and more transparent world.
Lessons: you cannot operate against the public good for long; importance ofunderstanding the cross-fertilisation of technology; the "business of business is morethan business."
The scenarios are designed to stimulate broad discussion on the challenges ofsustainable development for business and to provide a platform for more focusedindustry and corporate scenarios incorporating local business issues. These focusedscenarios, in turn, will provide a useful stimulant for the review of existing strategies
and the creation of new ones. We wish you success in the next step.
27

summary

21/9/98 5:10 pm

Page 28

S c e n a r i oParticipating
Companies

Scenario ProjectCore TeamP r o j e c t

P a r t i c i p a n t s

3M Company

Novartis

ABB

Ontario Hydro

Anova Holdings AG

Philips Electronics NV

AvenorPowerGen plc

BHP

Procter & Gamble Co.

British Petroleum Co. plc

SGS Societe Generale de Surveillance

Brodrene Hartmann A/S

Shell International B.V

Coors Brewing Co.

Sony International (Europe) GmbHDow Chemical Co.

Swiss Bank Corporation

General Motors Corporation

Tokyo Electric Power Co.

IBM Europe

TransAlta Corporation

Interface

Volkswagen

Johnson & Johnson

Waste Management Intl. plc

S C Johnson & Son Inc.

WBCSD

Monsanto

WMC Ltd.

Neste Oy

Weyerhaeuser Co.

Noranda Inc.

Xerox Corporation

Ged Davis, Shell International
Betty Sue Flowers, University of Texas at Austin
Ulrich Golüke, WBCSD
Barbara Heinzen, Consultant
Cho Khong, Shell International
Karen Länge, WBCSD
Douglas McKay, Shell International
Alain Wouters, GBN Europe

28