Possibility of National Division
by Economic Partnership

Chiho Mitsuda
Fumina Ichikawa
Yuri Kamoshita
Sakiko Takahashi
Kosuke Kobayashi

What is Brexit?
Britain + Exit = Brexit: the United Kingdom's decision to leave theEuropean Union (EU)Bye

A public vote was held on 23/6/2016.

Leave?

orRemain?

Whether the UK should leave or remain in the EU

Leave

Remain[値]%[値]%The Leave side won

29 March

the negotiation

31 Octoberstill discussing…

Outline
1. The Immigration Issue
2. The Tariff Issue
3. Conclusion & Consideration

the New law allowing many foreigners into Japan
Purposeto ease labor shortages

Place for work construction, farming, nursing, etc.
What happens >300,000 foreigners could be allowed to work

two new visa categories
・1st visa: for five years
・2nd visa: for workers with a higher level of skills
residency

Q. Do you think that (our country)’s membership of EU is…?
1391
1 0 0 1 1 0
1 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 4 0 2 3 1 4 1 1 2 2
4 15 5 7 6 4 6 9 26 7 8 59 7 11 611121410 14 101610 132018 1721
16 16 19 212221 20 22 2323 29
21 25 29 32
31 36 31 34 3735412737 4226 3487 85
81 78 77
75 74 72 71 70
69 67 65 65
62 61 60
56 56 55 52 51
49 48 48 45 4442 39

LU IE DE NL SE DK EE ES BE PL MT PT LT FI EU FR HU SI LV BG CY SK RO AT UK GR HR IT CZ

A good thing

Neither a good thing nor a bad thing

A bad thing

Don't know

Parlemeter 2018 QA15

MeritIf the United Kingdom leaves the EU…

Immigration → Fewer people
to accept

There is such a merit !

Merit Immigration
Transition of ImmigrationUnit：Thousand people

10,000.00

8,841.72
8,411.02

9,000.00

7,604.58

8,000.00
7,000.00

5,926.16

6,000.00

4,730.17

5,000.00

4,000.00

4,155.29
3,650.29

3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00
1985

1990

1995

2000

Year

2005

2010

2015

2020

Merit Immigration
1997：Abolition of border inspection
by Schengen Agreement

Realization of “free movement of people”
Migrant workers can freely travel within the EU !

Merit Immigration
Domestic law restricts immigration acceptance

European Parliament criticized“England violates EU legislation”

Merit Immigration
British people think…
• Immigrant workers lost their job→Unemployment rate is 4.23%• Increasing immigration is deteriorating security

These are solved !!?

Outline
1. The immigration issue
2. The Tariff Issue
3. Conclusion & Consideration

Demerit

TariffMake products in the UK

Sell products in EU member states

Trading will become difficult by customs duty😢

Demerit Tariff－Impact on Japanese Companies－
Number of Japanese companies that advance to the UK：
１３８０companies

Percentage of companies by industry（June,2016

researched by teikokubanku）

Outline
1. The immigration issue
2. The tariff issue
3. Conclusion & Consideration

Conclusion• Merit
The UK thought thatby exiting EU, the UK could solve immigration problems.

Conclusion• DemeritCompanies and factories may move to other countries whichcauses→unemployment rate increase.
→influence GDP and economy.

Consideration• EU member had negotiated with the U.S. and China.
→The UK might be obliged to pay tariff by some countries.

+EU ？
EU(the UK)=the U.S.・China

the UK＜the U.S.・China

Consideration

元Consideration• Consider Japan from Brexit…TPP(Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement)

Consideration• TPP member signed that abolition of tariff.
CountryJapan

CanadaAustralia

New Zealand

Item number

95%

99%

100%

100%

Trade amount

95%100%100%

100%Singapore

MexicoChilePeru

Malaysia

Vietnam

Brunei

100%

99%

100%

99%

100%

100%

100%

100%

99%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Made from “TPPにおける関税交渉” 内閣官房TPP政策対策本部(20/10/2015)

Consideration
Wonder if Japan exit TPP like Brexit ??
[1]Many cheap items effect Japanese products.
Especially, agricultural products will be damaged.
[2]Many foreigners will come as a labors.
Some Japanese may oppose for accepting so many.
→but, Japanese wouldn’t request to leave TPP.

Consideration
Because…

[1]Consumers always want cheap items.
Farmers market had been decreasing.
[2]Japan can’t manage economy without foreign workers.
→Most people think that it is good to remain TPP.
National division wouldn’t happen like the UK.

Consideration• Consider measures to guard by economy effectof import items.
• Keep good relationship with Australia, Canada,Vietnam, NZ….

• Japan have to make systems not to have trouble
between foreign workers and Japanese.

Thank you!