1. AIM Modeling: Overview and Major Findings
Mikiko Kainuma1, Yuzuru Matsuoka2, and Tsuneyuki Morita1
Summary. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is a set of computer
simulation models for assessing policy options on sustainable development
particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. It started as a tool to evaluate policy
options to mitigate climate change and its impacts, and extended its function to
analyze other environmental issues such as air pollution control, water resourcesmanagement, land use management, and environmental industry encouragement.
More than 20 models have been developed so far, and they are classified into
emission models, climate models and impact models from the viewpoint ofclimate policy assessment. The outline of these models is explained in this chapter.
These models have been used as single models or in combinations depending on
the policy needs, and they have contributed not only to the governments in the
Asian regions, but also to international organizations such as IPCC, UNEP, Eco
Asia, ESCAP, and OECD. Previous assessment based on AIM could clarify many
important knowledge related to mitigation policies of climate change at global,
regional, and country levels. These findings which are summarized in this chapter,
have been or are expected to be reflected to the climate policies as well assustainable development policies.

1.1 Introduction
It is predicted that global climate change will have significant impacts on thesociety and economy of the Asia-Pacific region, and that the adoption of measures
to tackle global climate change will force the region to carry a very large
economic burden. Also, if the Asian-Pacific region fails to adopt suchcountermeasures, it has been estimated that its greenhouse gas emissions will
increase to over one-half of total global emissions by 2100. In order to respond tosuch serious and long-term threats, it is essential to establish communication andevaluation tools for policy makers and scientists in the region. Integrated
Assessment Model (IAM) provides a convenient framework for combining
knowledge from a wide range of disciplines, and is one of the most effective tools
to increase the interaction among these groups.
The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) is one of the most frequently usedmodels in the world. The distinguished feature of AIM is that it involves Asian
country teams from China, India, Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam,
Japan and so on, has very detailed description on technologies, and uses
information from a detailed geographic information system to evaluate and present
12National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan
Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan

4

Kainuma, M. et al.

the distribution of impacts at the local and global levels. Besides preparing
country models for detailed evaluation at the state and national level, we have also
developed global models to analyze international economic relationships andclimate impacts for evaluating policy options from global viewpoint. Although
AIM model has been developed primarily to help respond to climate change
problems, it has been extended to be applied to other closely related
environmental problems such as air pollution, waste management, and water
resources problems.
This chapter is organized as follows: Section 1.2 reviews the global
environment issues determining the integrated assessment modeling approach,future directions of integrated assessment model development, and characteristics
of AIM. Section 1.3 describes the structure of AIM model and main characteristics
of its component models while main findings from global and country assessments
are summarized in Section 1.4.

1.2 Integrated Assessment Approach and AIM
1.2.1 Global environmental issues and integrated assessment
When one considers policy making in the context of global environment, thestarting point must be the characteristics of global environmental issues
themselves. These determine the nature of the assessment approach and also its
implementation.
a. Global environmental science is a very broad field, incorporating many distinct
scientific disciplines, often with diverse theoretical frameworks and analytical
approaches.
b. It also touches, directly and indirectly, upon many social and economic issues.
Therefore global environmental issues can be characterized by involving thesimultaneous evolution of research and policy making processes.
The importance of these two characteristics cannot be over-emphasized. The
need to link wide scientific frontiers/interests to equally wide, and often distinctly
differing, political interests and opinions, represents one of the most problematiccharacteristics of global environmental issues.
c. Many serious environmental problems are found in developing countries. Herethe interface between scientific concerns (methodological and practical) andpolitical concerns (economic and social) is characterized by loose linkages.
There are many epistemological gaps which need to be bridged between thescience and policy fields, and also between different scientific disciplines. First,
policy-makers are intelligent, but often lack the scientific training necessary to beable to interpret and implement detailed research results. Second, scientists havefew incentives to link their research results to the policy-making process, and tointegrate their own results with those from other scientific fields.

1. AIM Modeling: Overview and Major Findings

5

Integrated Assessment (IA) has a vital role to play in bridging these gaps. It is anecessary tool which greatly facilitates the optimal development of institutionaland research linkages, projects and policy recommendations.
IA represents the "best available synthesis of current scientific, technical,
economic, and sociopolitical knowledge" (IPCC 1995). It differs from disciplinary
research as IA aims specifically to inform knowledge and policy decision making
using a breadth of knowledge sources from a variety of disciplines.
1.2.2 Integrated assessment models
An Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) is a large-scale computer simulation
model to assimilate many different factors and disciplinary inputs. As such it
represents a core tool for Integrated Assessment approaches.
Though the first trial of model development for IA can be observed in the
beginning of 1970s (Meadows et al. 1972; Mesarovic et al. 1974), formal IAMs
emerged after the late 1970s. Nordhaus (1979), Haefele et al. (1981) and Edmonds
et al. (1985) developed energy-economy integrated models for climate change
assessment, and Alcamo et al. (1990) developed the first IAM to extend fully fromemission to impact for acid rain assessment. In 1990s, IAM studies for climatechange assessment have rapidly expanded, and there now exists more than twenty
IA models for climate change alone.
IPCC (1996) reviewed twenty-two IAMs for climate policy assessment
including AIM. A selection of seven representative models from twenty-two with
their characteristics is presented in Table 1. All of the seven models have thecomponents of GHG emissions, climate change, and impacts caused by climatechange, which are integrated for the purpose of future scenario assessments aswell as climate policy assessments.
IAM studies continue to be developed and the direction of these developments
can be classified into the following three. First, modeling targets and phenomena
are becoming wider and more detailed than before in order to respond to widened
audiences, new policy needs, and new scientific knowledge. Very detailed climatechange scenarios were prepared for IAMs (Hulme et al. 2002), special dynamic
models of land use and land degradation are trying to be integrated with emission
and impact models (Hootsman et al. 2001; Groeneveld et al. 2000), technology
factors are trying to be introduced as endogenous variables in IAMs (Weyant andOlavson 1999), and pluralism in value system are trying to be operated andreflected to future projection in IAMs (Janssen et al. 1998; van Asselt et al. 2002).
Furthermore, institutional factors such as governmental regulations, international
regime and cultural systems have been proposed to be incorporated with IAMs.
The second direction is to apply IAMs to participatory IA process wherestakeholders including policy makers and scientists communicate with each otherto recognize the priority of information and decisions. The typical examples of theparticipatory IAM application are ULYSSES (Urban Lifestyles, Sustainability andIntegrated Environmental Assessment) project (van Asselt et al. 2001), VISIONS(Integrated Visions for a Sustainable Europe) project (Rotmans et al. 2001), and6

Kainuma, M. et al.

COOL (Climate Options for the Long Term) project (Berk et al. 1999). These
Table 1. Seven representative IAMs
model name
AIM
(Asia-Pacific Integrated
Model
DICE
(Dynamic Integrated Climate& Economy model)
IIASA(International Institute forApplied System Analysis
IMAGE2.0(Integrated Model to Assess
the Greenhouse Effect)

model type
Large-scale
policyassessment
model
Policyoptimization
model
Large-scale
policyassessment
model
Large-scale
policyassessment
model

model components
emissionclimateimpactreferencecomplexcomplexcomplex---simplesimplesimpleNoldhaus(1994)

complexsimplecomplex

WEC/IIASA(1995)

complexcomplexcomplex

Alcamo(1994)

MERGE(Model for Evaluating
Regional & Global Effects of
GHG Reduction Policies)

Policyoptimization
model

complexsimplesimpleManne etal. (1993)

MiniCAM(Mini Global Change
Assessment Model)

Large-scale
policyassessment
model

complexsimplesimpleEdmonds
et al.
(1994)

Strategic policy
assessment
model

simplesimplecomplexRotmans
et al.
(1995)TARGETS(Tool to Assess Regional&Global Environmental &Health Targets for

projects supported European scenario development process of long term
environmental change and policy introductions with policy makers and citizens.
The third direction of IAM development is to apply IAMs to regional and local
assessment rather than global scale assessment. Lorenzoni et al. (2000)
downscaled the IPCC global emission scenarios (IPCC 2000) into British impact
assessment by means of their IAM, Green et al. (2000) estimated co-benefit of air
pollution abatement policies and global warming mitigation policies for several
countries, Amann et al. (2001) tries to extend an IAM on acid rain (RAINS) to
multi-pollution and multi-effect model including air pollutants of SO2, NOx, VOC,
NH3 and to integrate it with country models (NIAM: National Integrated
Assessment Model) to assess environmental impact in a national level (Johansson
et al. 2001).
Such new developments of IAMs increase the audience and users, and IAMs
are been adopting in many important processes of environmental policy making ascore tool to link science frontier to their processes.

1. AIM Modeling: Overview and Major Findings

7

1.2.3 Characteristics of AIM
Our research project of IAM modeling, the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM),
started in 1991, relatively a little later timing than those of other representative
IAMs. However, our project has established a unique position among these IAMs.
First, AIM is only one IAM focusing on Asia, and the AIM project has been
specifically developed using a collaborative approach of the Asian region, basedon an international collaboration program with participation of governments andresearchers of the Asian countries. The AIM project has strongly supported Asiandeveloping countries to get their own IA tool, and these countries have alreadyapplied own IAMs to their actual policy making processes.
Second, AIM has several unique structures of model integration in addition to
the emission-climate-impact integration which is commonly observed in
representative IAM models.
1. integration between economic modules and environmental modules in order toanalyze tradeoffs between Asian rapid economic growth and its environmental
conservation, and to assess sustainable development policies in Asia;
2. linkage between top-down modules and bottom-up modules for comprehensive
and consistent assessment of various policy options including top-down macroeconomic policies and bottom-up technological options, which are bothessential to solve the Asian complicated environmental issues;
3. linkage between short/middle-term simulation modules and long-tem
simulation modules in order to integrate urgent Asian policies against current
pollution and nature destruction issues with long-term policies for climatechange mitigation;
4. linkage between country/local modules and world modules in order to design
effective policies for regional collaboration in Asia, that include technology
transfer and assistance in environmental investment desired by most ofdeveloping countries in the region.
These structures were prepared to respond to actual requests from policy
making processes. These unique structures enable us easily to advance our studies
toward the new direction of world IAM community written above, and AIM has
already started evolving in the new directions.
Third, AIM has been used in the actual policy making process in the Asian
region. Several Asian countries have adopted this model as an in-house model forpolicy assessment, and Environmental Ministers’ Congress for Asia and Pacific(Eco Asia) adopted AIM as core tool for policy design. AIM also contributed toother international activities: AIM was selected as reference model in the Special
Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) and in Third Assessment Report (TAR)
both of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and also in the Global
Environment Outlook (GEO) of United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP).
AIM simulation results were used by many other international organizations
including OECD, ESCAP, ADB, UNU, and WWF. Recently, the AIM modelingteam started to prepare new set of models for Millennium Ecosystem Assessment(MA) and Asia-Pacific Environmental Innovation Strategy Project (APEIS).

8

Kainuma, M. et al.

1.3 Structure of the AIM Model
1.3.1 AIM for climate policy assessment
The roadmap of AIM models is shown in Fig. 1 and Color Plate 1. These figures
also show the correspondence between these models and chapters covering theirdescriptions.
The original AIM is an integrated 'top-down and bottom-up' model andcomprises three main models - the greenhouse gas emission model(AIM/Emission), the global climate change model (AIM/Climate) and theclimate change impact model (AIM/Impact) (Morita et al. 1993; Matsuoka et al.
2000).
Several emission models including both top-down and bottom-up models havebeen developed to estimate greenhouse gas emissions and other related gases. One
is a bottom-up energy model which we call AIM/Enduse model. It focuses on theend-use technology selection in energy consumption as well as energy production.
It calculates future demand of energy services for several sectors, determines the
optimal set of technologies for the demand by total cost minimization based on
exogenous energy price, and then, it estimates future energy consumptions as well
as future emissions of GHGs. AIM/Enduse was recently evolved to AIM/Local
model which is linked to local emission inventories in order to simulate multi-gas
emissions from large point source. AIM/Enduse was developed also for morecomprehensive bottom-up model (AIM/Bottom-up) by adding industrial processmodule and lifestyle change module to the energy endues model.
For AIM/Emission, three kinds of top-down models were developed, those are,
AIM/Energy-Economics, AIM/CGE (Energy), and AIM/Land-Equilibrium.
AIM/Energy-Economics is a partial equilibrium model to analyze long-term
AIM/Emission

AIM/Material

AIM/Local
AIM/Enduse

Inventory activity(Chap. 11)(Chap. 5 - 10)

AIM/Impact

AIM/Emission-Linkage
AIM/Bottom-up
AIM/Energy-Economics
AIM/Land-Equilibrium(Chap. 2)

AIM/CGE (Energy)(Chap. 4)

AIM/Country

AIM/Land
AIM/Water
AIM/Agriculture
AIM/Vegetation
AIM/Health etc.
(Chap. 3, 12)

AIM/Global
AIM/CGE-Linkage
AIM/Ecosystem

AIM/Trend(Chap. 13)

AIM/Database(Chap. 14)

AIM Family

Fig. 1. Roadmap of AIM family (see color plates)

AIM/Climate
Atmospheric model
UD Ocean model
Radiative forcing model
GCM,RegCM interface

1. AIM Modeling: Overview and Major Findings

9energy demand and supply. It was mainly used for GHG emission forecast overnext one century. AIM/CGE (Energy) is a general equilibrium model focused onenergy sectors to analyze the relationship between emissions and international
trade. It was frequently used for the assessment of Kyoto Mechanism such as
emission trade and Clean Development Mechanism. The third top-down model,
AIM/Land-Equilibrium is a general equilibrium model focused on agriculture
and forestry sector in order to analyze land use change based on international
agricultural market. This model was applied to quantification of GHG emissions
caused by land use change.
For the purpose of quantifying comprehensive emission scenarios for IPCC, aspecific linkage model, AIM/Emission-Linkage was developed. Three models
were combined in this model, those were, AIM/Bottom-up, AIM/EnergyEconomics, and AIM/Land-Equilibrium, and then, comprehensive GHGs
emissions as well as related gas emissions such as SO2, NOx were simulated basedon the model.
The estimated GHG emissions and related gas emissions are input into the
AIM/Climate. Except for CO2, GHGs emitted into the atmosphere are graduallytransformed by chemical reactions, which are calculated within the AIM/Climate.
For short-life chemicals such as ozone and OH radicals, pseudo-equilibrium stateis assumed, and the oxidation and photochemical reactions of CH4 and othermolecules are represented by simple kinetic equations. The absorption of CO2 andheat to ocean is calculated using an upwelling-diffusion (UD) model with theoceans divided into a surface mixed layer and an intermediate layer, which
extends down to about the 1000 meters. Carbon cycle between atmosphere andterrestrial ecosystem is also reproduced by simple model which was validated bydynamic vegetation simulations.
Global averaged surface temperature changes are calculated by a simple
radiative forcing model which is linked to an energy balance/upwelling-diffusion
ocean model. Regional distribution of climate parameters is estimated based on
the experiments of GCMs and regional climate models. AIM/Climate includes
specific interface between simple module of AIM/Climate and GCMs and regional
climate models in order to interpolate regional climate distribution.
The AIM/Impact treats mainly the impact on water supply, vegetation change,
primary production industries such as agriculture and forest products, and on
human health such as malaria spread. It can also be used to assess higher-order
impacts on the regional economy. For these impact assessments, environmental
and socio-economic data of the region have been gathered and filed in ageographical information system (GIS). The resolution of the data is from halfdegree to five minutes in latitude.
AIM/Database for AIM/Emission as well as AIM impact has been developed
to support the development and utilization of AIM models. As mentioned above,
AIM model has been developed as an international collaboration program, and the
database has also been developed by the collaborative program.

10

Kainuma, M. et al.

1.3.2 Other models of AIM Family
Over the years of developing AIM models, a variety of new models, which areinterrelated and interconnected, have been added to the family shown in Fig. 1 andColor Plate 1. These new models are AIM/Trend, AIM/Material, AIM/CGELinkage, AIM/Ecosystems, AIM/Country, and AIM/Global.
AIM/Trend is developed to project the basic trend of economy, energy andenvironment in Asia-Pacific region. It covers as wide a range of countries in AsiaPacific region (42 countries), and it estimates environmental conditions through2032. It uses simple method (econometric) and develops several scenarios forcapacity building. AIM/Material intends to estimate economic and environmental
effects of environmental investment. It assesses the effects of policy integration
for comprehensive environmental problems including solid, water and air
pollution. It achieves consistency of material flow along with economic activities.
AIM/CGE-Linkage integrates original global CGE model with Material, Energyeconomics and Land-equilibrium modules to assess global economic development
taking into account the international markets. AIM/Ecosystem is an extended
version of AIM/Impact and intends to evaluate not only the impact of climatechange, but also other important environmental issues especially ecosystemassessment. It has several modules to estimate surface runoff, river discharge,
potential crops productivity, vegetation classification, and health impacts.
AIM/Country and AIM/Global models integrate various modules at country andglobal levels respectively in order to assess the country and global sustainable
development.

1.4 Major Findings
1.4.1 Findings from global assessment
Major findings from global assessment written in Part II can be summarized asfollows:
1. Without the Kyoto target, the global temperature would increase by more than
2°C in 2100. In such a case, severe impacts can be predicted on water resource
supply, agriculture productions, vegetation and human health (Chapter 2, 3, 4).
2. Their impacts would be significant and with serious negative damages in the
low latitude regions, especially developing countries in tropical and subtropical zones, while climate change could cause positive effects in the highlatitude regions (Chapter 3).
3. Future development of the Asia-Pacific region has significant influence on
global emission scenarios. The Developing Asia-Pacific becomes dominant inclimate change issue (Chapter 2).
4. Different development paths require different technology/policy measures andshow different costs of mitigation to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentrations
at the same level. No single type of measure will be sufficient for the timely

1. AIM Modeling: Overview and Major Findings

11

development, adoption and diffusion of mitigation options for CO2 stabilization(Chapter 2).
5. It is predicted that ratification of the Kyoto Protocol may cause economic
impacts. However there are several ways including technological development
and international cooperation to mitigate the economic impacts and apossibility of promoting the growth of economies (Chapter 4).
1.4.2 Findings from regional and country assessment
The followings are also major findings from regional and country assessment
written in Part II and III:
1. It could be possible for the Developing Asia-Pacific to continue high economic
growth while maintaining GHG emissions at a low level. Technologicalprogress and technology transfer should be emphasized to maintain low GHG
emissions in the Developing Asia-Pacific's economic development. The market
mechanism is an efficient way to achieve the diffusion of advanced
technologies (Chapter 2, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 13).
2. It is important for the Developing Asia-Pacific to introduce sophisticatedmeasures to control GHG emissions before 2030. Robust policy options should
be designed to respond to very wide range of alternative development path
(Chapter 2, 5). In China, sophisticated policies should be designed at thesectoral level, especially in transport, commerce and the chemical industry(Chapter 5).
3. New environmental policies are required that are designed for the early stagesof development in China and India in order to integrate strategies for both theglobal environment and local environment including pollution control andwaste management. Although under a SO2 mitigation policy regime, the SO2
and CO2 trajectories get decoupled in India, extents of SO2 mitigation and CO2
mitigation are strongly correlated under a CO2 mitigation policy regime(Chapter 5, 7, 11, 13).
4. Long-term adaptation investment for climate change could create co-benefit inother policy fields. Chinese current flood damage could be drastically reducedby the adaptation investment in flood prevention infrastructure to mitigate
climate change impact (Chapter 12).
5. The LPS would continue to be responsible for considerable part of the carbon
emissions. Power sector is the predominant emission source for CO2 and SO2.
Operational improvements (like heat rate reduction, excess air control etc.),
better maintenance, reducing transmission and distribution losses in the power
sector would go a long way in emissions mitigation in India and China (Chapter5, 6).
6. Energy savings or low CO2 emitting devices could be difficult to introduce into
the market in every sector by 2020 without any climate policy measures in
Korea. The marginally higher cost of new low CO2 emitting devices is too large
for them to penetrate the Korean market (Chapter 8).

12

Kainuma, M. et al.

7. Japanese cost to reach Kyoto target depends on Japan’s future development
pattern and climate policy design. The development toward “Recycle-based
Society (B1)” could reduce cost and lead economic growth. Japanese cost could
also be reduced by increased environmental investment, environmental industry
encouragement, technology improvement, integration with waste management
policy, shift to green consumption, and introduction of Kyoto mechanism(Chapter 4, 10, 11).
8. International collaboration for capacity building and knowledge transfer on IA
and IAM is essential for global participation in climate change mitigation(Chapter 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14).

References
Alcomo J, Shaw R and Hordijk L (eds) (1990) The RAINS model of acidification: Scienceand strategies in Europe, Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
Alcamo J (ed) (1994) IMAGE 2.0 - Integrated model of global climate change. Kluwer
Academic Publishers, Dordecht
Amann M, Johansson A, Lukewille D et al. (2001) An integrated assessment model for fineparticulate matter in Europe. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 130:223-228
Berk MM, Hordijk L et al. (1999) Climate options for the long term (COOL). Interim
report, NOP, Bilthoven, the Netherlands
Edmonds J and Reilly J (1985) Global energy: Assessing the future, Oxford University
Press, New York
Edmons J, Wise M, MacCracken (1994) Advanced energy technologies and climatechange: an analysis using the global change assessment model (GCAM). Presentation
to the Air and Waste Management Meeting, 6 April, Tempre AZ, Air and Waste
Management Association, Pittsburgh
Green C (ed) (2000) Developing country case-studies: integrated strategies for air pollution
and greenhouse gas mitigation. Progress Report for the International Co-Control
Benefits Analysis Program, The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, The Office ofAtmosphere Programs of the US Environmental Protection Agency
Groenveld RA, van Ierland EC (2000) Economic modelling approaches to land use andcover change. NRP Report No.410200045, Wageningen University
Haefele W, Anderer J, McDonald A and Nakicenovic N (1981) Energy in a finite world,
Ballinger, Cambridge, MA
Hootsman RM, Bouwman AF, Leemans R, Kreileman GJ (2001) Modeling landdegradation in IMAGE 2. RIVM report 481508009, National Institute of Public Healthand the Environment, The Netherlands
Hulme M, Lu X, Turnpenny J, Mitchell T et al. (2002) Climate change scenarios for theUnited Kingdom. The UKCIPO2 Scientific Report, Tyndall Centre, Department forEnvironment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK
IPCC (1996) Climate change 1995: economic and social dimensions of climate change.
Bruce JP, Lee H, Haites E (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
IPCC (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios. Nakicenovic N et al. (eds), Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge
Jannsen M, de Vries B (1998) The battle of perspectives: a multi-agent model with adaptive

1. AIM Modeling: Overview and Major Findings

13

responses to climate change. Ecological Economics 26:43-65
Johansson M, Alveteg A, Amann M et al. (2001) Integrated assessment modeling of air
pollution in four European countries. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 130:175-186
Lorenzoni I, Jordan A, O'Riordan T, et al. (2000) A co-evolutionary approach to climatechange impact assessment: Part II. a scenario-based case study in East Anglia (UK).
Global Environmental Change 10:145-155
Manne AS and Richels RG (1993) MERGE - A model for evaluation regional and global
effects of GHG reduction policies. Energy Policy, 23(1):17-34
Matsuoka Y (2000) Extrapolation of carbon dioxide emission scenarios to meet long-term
atmospheric stabilization targets. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, 3:
255-265
Meadows DH, Meadows DL, Randers J and Behrens WW (1972) The limits to growth,
Universe Books, New York
Mesarovic MD and Pestel E (1974) Mankind at the turning point: The second report to theClub of Rome, Dutton, New York
Morita T, Matsuoka Y, et al. (1993) AIM - Asian Pacific integrated model for evaluating
policy options to reduce GHG emissions and global warming impacts. In “Global
warming issue in Asia", Asian Institute of Technology, pp.254-273
Nordhaus WD (1979) The efficient use of energy resources, Yale University Press, New
Haven, CT
Nordhaus WD (1994) Managing the global commons: the economics of climate change.
The MIT Press
Rotmans J (1995) TARGETS in transition. RIVM report, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Rotmans J, van Asselt M et al. (2001) Integrated visions for a sustainable Europe: changing
mental maps:VISIONS final report. ICIS, Maastricht/Utrecht
van Asselt MA, Middelkoop H et al. (2001) Integrated water management strategies for theRhine and Meuse basins in a changing environment. Final Report of the NRP project
0/958273/01, ICIS, Maastricht/Utrecht
van Asselt MA, Rotmans J (2002) Uncertainty in integrated assessment modeling, frompositivism to pluralism. Climate Change 54:75-105
WEC and IIASA (1995) Global energy perspectives to 2050 and beyond. World Energy
Council, London
Weyant JP, Olavson T (1999) Issues in modeling induced technological change in energy,
environmental, and climate policy. Environmental Modeling and Assessment 4:67-85