Technical Memorandum

Description of Scenarios for Vietnam
Preparedat the PoleStar Workshop 4-15 October 1999

Eric Kemp-Benedict, Ph.D.
with contributions from workshop participants

12 January 2000

SEI

STOCKHOLM
ENVIRONMENTINSTITUTE

Boston Center, Tellus Institute11 Arlington Street, Boston, MA, 02116, USA

Phone: (617) 266 8090 | Fax: (617) 266 8303 | Email: info@seib.org | http://www.seib.org

Table of Contents
1

INTRODUCTION.............................................................................................................................................. 1

2

THE POLESTAR SYSTEM............................................................................................................................ 1

3

CURRENT PATTERNS ................................................................................................................................... 2
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6

4

TWO SCENARIOS ............................................................................................................................................ 6
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6
4.7

5

ECONOMY AND DEMOGRAPHY........................................................................................................................2
LAND, FORESTS AND A GRICULTURE..............................................................................................................3
INDUSTRY...........................................................................................................................................................4
TRANSPORTATION.............................................................................................................................................5
ENERGY ..............................................................................................................................................................5
W ATER................................................................................................................................................................6

SCENARIO OVERVIEW.......................................................................................................................................6
ECONOMY AND DEMOGRAPHY........................................................................................................................7
LAND, FORESTS AND A GRICULTURE..............................................................................................................7
INDUSTRY...........................................................................................................................................................9TRANSPORTATION.............................................................................................................................................9ENERGY ............................................................................................................................................................10
W ATER..............................................................................................................................................................10
CONCLUSIONS ...............................................................................................................................................11

REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................................................12

1 Introduction
This report describes a set of integrated scenarios prepared as part of a training workshop
held in Hanoi, Vietnam, 4-15 October 1999. The workshop introduced the scenariobuilding approach and computer program of the Stockholm Environment Institute’s (SEI)PoleStar system. It was held at the office of the National Environment Agency (NEA)
project “Strengthening of the Environmental Management Authority Vietnam” (SEMA).
The participants were drawn from a variety of backgrounds, including NEA staff andstaff from several ministries and institutes within Vietnam.
The two-week workshop had two one-week phases. During the first phase, participants
were introduced to the PoleStar scenario-building approach. This phase included an
intensive introduction to the PoleStar software. Also, participants discussed sustainable
development issues in Vietnam, with the discussions centering around a demonstration
scenario prepared prior to the workshop by SEI.
During the second phase, participants developed integrated scenarios for Vietnam thatcovered a range of issues: economics; demographics; household electricity and water use;
industrial energy consumption and pollution emissions; electricity generation;transportation energy demand and emissions; and land use. The base year for the
scenarios is 1995, and scenarios were constructed for 2000, 2005 and 2010. The scenarios
were informed by presentations by speakers from NEA and the Ministry of Planning andInvestment (MPI). The participants also prepared summary notes and presentations on the
scenarios they had constructed. One of the scenarios is a Reference scenario, in which
population and economic growth proceeds according to government expectations, but no
particular focus is given to environmental issues. The other, which was not completely
implemented during the workshop. is a Policy scenario, in which more attention is paid tospecific environmental issues.
This report will focus on the scenarios produced, drawing mainly on the summary notes
and the presentations of the speakers and participants.1 Through the efforts of theparticipants, data on current patterns should be accurate and up-to-date. Also, thescenarios should reflect plausible and desirable development paths. However, the amountof time available during the workshop did not allow for a thorough review of the
scenarios produced. Consequently, these scenarios should be be viewed as provisional.
They serve as a starting point for discussing possible development directions for Vietnam
and for developing more refined scenario analysis, but should not be taken as definitive
scenarios for the country.

2 The PoleStar System
In the face of an inherently unpredictable future, scenarios can help explore alternative
development paths. Rather than attempting to predict a particular future, scenarios are
1

When reviewing the scenarios after the workshop, the author noted some inconsistencies in the data,
which seemed to arise from errors in entering or interpreting data. These have been changed for this report,
and the changes are noted below. Also, some additional sources have been used to provide a broader
context for the scenario discussion. These sources are referenced in the text.

1

stories of possible futures. By connecting activities that can be influenced by policy today
to environmental and social problems that might not occur until decades into the future,they serve to bring potential future problems to bear on current decision making.
The purpose of the workshop was to introduce the PoleStar system, a software tool to aid
the generation and evaluation of alternative development scenarios. PoleStar is both acomprehensive, flexible and easy-to-use accounting framework for mounting economic,
resource and environmental information, as well as being a scenario-building tool for
examining alternative development scenarios. PoleStar is applicable at national, regionaland global scales. The user customizes data structures, modeling relationships, time
horizons and spatial boundaries, all of which can be expanded or altered in the course ofan analysis.
A PoleStar application generally begins with the current accounts, a snapshot of thecurrent state of affairs. Next, scenarios are developed to explore alternative futures.
Finally, environmental and resource pressures are computed and can be compared touser-defined sustainability criteria. Demographic and economic data and assumptions act
as driving variables for the scenarios, providing a scale for the activity within the sectoralmodules.

3 Current Patterns
3.1 Economy and Demography
In 1991 the Party adopted a 10-year strategy for economic growth (Thai, 1999). Prior to
its inception economic growth had been slow, increasing about 3% during1989 and 1990.
Following the adoption the plan, economic growth increased substantially, and has
generally remained high. The economy grew by 8% in 1995 and by more than 9% in1996 (Thai, 1999). However, recently growth has declined in the wake of the general
economic crisis precipitated by the events of 1998. In 1998 the economy grew by only
about 5% (Thai, 1999). The total economic output for Vietnam in 1995 was VND
288,918 billion (GSO, 1999).2 By the year 2000, the GDP is expected to be VND
401,495 billion (Thai, 1999), reflecting an average annual increase of close to 7%.
Despite the considerable economic growth between 1991 and 1995, economic output percapita remains low. When converted into United States dollars at market exchange rates,
incomes are about $1 per day. Even when adjusted for purchasing power, average GDP
per capita is only about $5 a day (Thai, 1999). In international comparisons, this places
Vietnam in the rank of the poorest countries. A major government goal is to move thecountry out of that bracket. In spite of low incomes, Vietnam ranks high in many humandevelopment measures. For example, life expectancy in 1995 was 66 years, compared to
62 on average for all developing countries and 51years on average for the least-developed
countries, while the literacy rate is 93% (UNDP, 1998).
2

All currencies are expressed in 1998 Vietnam dong (VND). The 1995 value used in the scenario
constructed during the workshop is corrected to 1998 values , using figures from Thai (1999) and GSO(1999).

2

The structure of the economy is shown in Table 1.3 As shown in the table, over the shortperiod of five years, between 1995 and 2000, industry’s share in the total is expected to
grow from 29% of the total to 34%, continuing the shift toward an industrial economy
that has characterized growth in Vietnam since 1990.
Table 1. Economic Structure, 1995 and 2000
SectorIndustry
Agriculture
Services

1995
29%
27%
44%

2000
34%
25%
41%

Source: 1995 data from GSO (1999); 2000 figures from Thai (1999).

The population in 1995 was 74 million. Of this total, only about 20% lived in urban
centers (GSO, 1999). A 1993 survey indicated that on average there were about 5 people
per household (GSO, 1994). About 20% of the population lived in urban areas in 1995,
similar to the share in 1990 (GSO, 1999).
3.2 Land, Forests and Agriculture
In recent years, due to the gradually increasing industrialization and modernization of thecountry, combined with a shift toward a market economy, Vietnam has clearly madeprogress. However, with a limited land area, the resultant increase in demand has createdmore pressure for land resources. Past mistakes in using and managing natural resourcesin general—and land resources in particular—have resulted in degradation. To ensure asustainable use of land, leading to both socioeconomic and environmental benefits, theGovernment, both at local and central levels, plays an important management role.
The land-use distribution in 1995 is shown in Table 2. Historically, over the period 19431995, forest area in Vietnam declined from 14.3 million ha to 9.3 million ha, and forest
loss continues today.

3

The economic structure shown for 1995 is slightly different from that used during the workshop, to makethem consistent value added used for the scenarios. The differences appear to be due to placing economic
activities in different categories. In particular, Party activities are included here within the Service sector,
which appears to be the same convention followed in Thai (1999). The differences between the twocategorizations are at most 2% in any sector.

3

Table 2. Land-Use Distribution in 1995
Land use type
Cultivated land
Grazing land
Built-up land
Natural forest
Artificial forest
Fallow land and bald hills
Other
Total

Area (ha)Share (%)
7,352,253
22
1,211,403
4
1,347,2514
825,50025
1,047,700
3
12,453,000
38
1,489,219
5
33,153,822100

Note: Numbers may not add to total due to rounding.

In economic terms, agricultural output has increased regularly since 1989, by over 4%
per year on average, contributing to the average income of farmers, which increased byover three times between 1990 and 1993 (SEMA, 1999a). Currently, Vietnam is a net
exporter of rice, the most important food crop. In contrast, in 1989 the country was
experiencing protracted famine. The pressure on agricultural land is high—in the Red
River Delta region, agricultural land per capita is 500 m2 , the lowest average in the world(SEMA, 1999a).
3.3 Industry
Along with other sectors of the economy, industry has experienced high growth since1990. Over the period 1983-1989 growth averaged 6.6% per year, while between 1991
and 1995 growth averaged 13.7% per year, exceeding the target for that period (SEMA,
1999b). In the wake of the general economic crisis following the events of 1997 growth
fell below the target, but remained relatively high, still exceeding 10% per year. A
transition to an industrial economy is a central feature of government development
strategy (SEMA, 1999b).
Despite the impressive contributions industrial growth has made to overall economic
growth and socioeconomic development, growth in the sector has been accompanied byincreasing pollution (SEMA, 1999b). The rise in pollutant emissions seen in the past
decade is unlikely to slow in the future, because of limited resources for investing innewer, cleaner technologies. State-owned enterprises , which are struggling to make thetransition to a more market-oriented economy with limited resources and old equipment,
still account for a large proportion of total industrial output (SEMA, 1999b). In 1995,
state-owned enterprises contributed 50% to total gross industrial output, while non-state
domestic enterprises contributed 25% and the foreign-invested sector the remaining 25%(GSO, 1999). The state-owned enterprises play an important social role in guaranteeing
employment (Hy, 1999). The contrast between social and environmental impacts of stateowned enterprises highlights the importance of sustainable development perspective,
which examines social and environmental goals together.
For this study, five industrial subsectors are identified: Metallurgy, Building Materials,
Chemical-Fertilizer, Paper and a residual “Other” subsector. Most (around 78%) of theindustrial value added is generated by the “Other” subsector, with Metallurgy and Paper
4products each contributing about 2% and the Building Materials and Chemical-Fertilizer
industries each contributing about 9%.
3.4 Transportation
In 1995, for both passenger and freight transport, the major mode of transportation is byroad. People traveled, on average, about 224 km, expressed as the average per capita
passenger-km traveled during the year, while for goods a total of 30 billion tonne-km
were hauled. For both passenger and freight traffic, about 40% was by road.
Government plans for future development include maintaining and upgrading the existingroad infrastructure, as well as building new roads, including roads to link economicallyimportant areas to ports and harbors (SEMA, 1999b). There are also plans to upgrade andextend the transportation infrastructure in other modes as well—rail, marine and inland
waterway. Aside from any impacts from increased vehicle use, these large-scale projects
will have impacts on communities and the environment (SEMA, 1999b).
The existing fleet in all modes is essentially all petroleum-burning. As travel increases in
the future it can be expected that air emissions, noise pollution and dust will rise alongwith it. In addition, petroleum requirements for transportation needs can be expected toincrease.
3.5 Energy
The scenarios described in Section 4.6 of this report focus on the modern fuels requiredby a modernizing economy: electricity, petroleum, natural gas and coal, with a particularemphasis on electricity. Also, they focus on energy use for transportation and industrial
production. 4 Vietnam has crude oil, coal and natural gas reserves. However, currently thenatural gas reserves are relatively undeveloped. The major energy conversion sector in
the country is the electricity generation sector. Essentially all of the crude oil that is
produced is exported for processing in other countries, and petroleum is imported.
In 1995 electricity generation amounted to 53 PJ (15 billion kWh). Of this total, about
75% was supplied from hydroelectric sources, the remainder supplied by thermal power
plants burning coal, petroleum products and natural gas. The major fuel consumed bythermal electric plants is coal, which contributes 78% of the total fuel consumed bythermal power plants. Nuclear sources are not expected to be developed until after 2015.
In the future, non-hydroelectric sources are expected to grow more rapidly thanhydroelectric sources (SEMA, 1999b). Correspondingly, air emissions from combustion,and dust from coal-fired plants, are also expected to rise.
4

Currently, most household energy use is biomass. For the households responding in the 1992-1993
Vietnam Living Standards Survey (GSO, 1994), the main sources of fuel were wood (54%); grass, leaves,
agricultural residues and similar biomass sources (34%) and either coal or charcoal (9%). The remaining
3% was supplied by modern fuels (bottled gas, kerosene and electricity). These estimates are close to thosereported by the Rural Wood Energy Development Program (RWEDP, 1999), which were based on
statistics gathered by Vietnam’s Institute of Energy. According to the same source, 80% of biomass
consumption is accounted for in the household sector (RWEDP, 1999).

5

3.6 Water
In terms of total supply, Vietnam has abundant water resources. However, most of theflow is carried by the Mekong and Red Rivers, which originate outside the country. As aresult, over half of Vietnam’s water resources (60%) are supplied by cross-border flows(FAO, 1999). The future of water development in Vietnam is therefore dependent onwater development in neighboring countries. For example, China has plans to build ninehydroelectric plants on the Mekong river, which will affect Vietnam as a downstream
country (Thai, 1999). Furthermore, the water flow is not evenly distributed. Chronic
water shortages in mountainous areas in the dry season is a concern and there isoverpumping in some areas (SEMA, 1999a). A further problem is the contamination ofexisting water supplies by saline or brackish water.
In the scenarios, water withdrawals by households and industry are treated explicitly.
Also, use of hydroelectricity is treated in the scenarios. As mentioned in Section 3.4,
most electricity in Vietnam is generated by hydroelectric plants. While these do not add
to withdrawals, the major role played by hydroelectric production emphasizes theimportance of water resources to development. Agricultural water use, which in 1990
accounted for 87% of withdrawals (FAO, 1999), has not been treated explicitly in the
scenarios. Instead, agricultural water use will be discussed qualitatively in this report.
Water pollution is a current problem that can be expected to intensify in the course ofdevelopment. In rural areas ponds are used both as water sources and as waste
repositories (SEMA, 1999a). Most industrial waste water si not treated before discharge
into water bodies. Chemical and dye plants, as well as thermal power plants, areconsidered to pose the greatest risks (SEMA, 1999a).

4 Two Scenarios
4.1 Scenario Overview
Two scenarios were prepared by the workshop participants. One is a Reference scenario,
in which population and economic growth proceeds according to government
expectations, but no particular focus is given to environmental issues. The other is a
Policy scenario, in which more attention is paid to specific environmental issues. In some
sectors a Policy scenario was constructed explicitly to meet particular environmental
goals. In other sectors the more rapid economic growth envisioned in the Policy scenario
drives activity, in order to highlight the difficulties rapid growth might lead to, in theabsence of focused environmental policy.
In addition to addressing environmental concerns, the Policy scenario focuses on social
goals. Economic growth is higher, and poverty reduction more rapid. In order to achievethese aims, important policies identified by the workshop participants include:••

Give priority to develop main industries, with a special focus on the development of
infrastructure and energy production to support economic development in anindustrializing economy.
Invest further in family planning.
6

•
•
•

Invest in education to improve labor quality; open more vocational schools to train
skilled labor and to transfer labor from agricultural production to industry.
Give priority to poverty and hunger elimination.
Bring new crop varieties into agriculture and make fallow land and bald hills
agriculturally productive.

4.2 Economy and Demography
In general terms, government plans for the next two decades involve combining
sustainable development with a socialist orientation (Thai, 1999). Consistent with thisview, many recent government documents have emphasized the environment, especiallyas it is affected by industrialization (Hy, 1999). The 8th Party Congress resolved that in2020 Vietnam will complete the industrialization process. However, this challenging goal
may not be feasible. In 1990 the level of economic development was low, offering
opportunities for rapid growth. But by 2000 the level is relatively high, and achieving
similar growth rates will prove increasingly difficult (Thai, 1999).
Consistent with expectations of possible future growth, the Reference scenario assumes
that the relatively rapid economic growth that Vietnam has experienced between 1990
and 2000 slows in the future, averaging about 7% per year between 1995 and 2010.5 In
the Policy scenario the economy grows more rapidly than in the Reference scenario,
averaging about 8% per year over the course of the scenario. In order to achieve rapid
growth in the future, the country plans to rely on advanced technology (Thai, 1999).
In both scenarios, population increases from 74 million in 1995 to 89 million in 2010, an
average growth rate of 1.2% per year over the period (Thai, 1999).
4.3 Land, Forests and Agriculture
As the population grows in the scenario, requirements for agricultural land and the built
environment increase. In addition, cropland continues to be degraded at rates consistent
with historical patterns. Requirements for land to replace the degraded crop areas adds tothe demand for new cropland. These expand at the expense of other types of land,
including forest and bare hills that might otherwise be reforested.
In a long-term view, extending to 2015, beyond the end of the Reference scenario, landarea would be distributed in the following way:••

More than a half the land (18 million ha) will be covered by plants with a clean
environment and a sustainable ecosystem.
Nearly 10 million ha of agricultural land (of which about 4 million ha will be for ricecultivation) will satisfy requirements for food security and industrial production, by

5

Economic output (GDP) for the Reference scenario, and population growth in both scenarios, are takenfrom projections presented during the workshop by Prof. Thai of MPI. For the scenarios all GDP values arein constant 1998 Vietnamese Dong (VND).

7

•
•
•

meeting the food demand of the society and supplying enough raw material forprocessing.
Nearly 3 million ha of land will be used for specific purposes to meet the demand forindustrial, cultural, social and national security services.
More than 3% of the total land area (1.1 million ha) will be used to build resident
apartments which are basically urbanized to ensure a high quality living standard forall people.
There will still remain 1.8 million ha of rivers, streams and bald rock mountains,some of which will be exploited for other purposes. The rest of this area will be left inits natural state for aesthetic and environmental purposes.

The Reference scenario should move toward this pattern. In the Reference scenario,
requirements for built land per capita decrease by 11% over the course of the scenario,
from 0.018 ha per capita in 1995 to 0.016 ha per capita by 2010. The decline in area percapita is accompanied by increasing urbanization, and is consistent with the observationthat an urbanized population requires less land per capita than a primarily rural
population (SEMA, 1999a). The rate of decline is slightly slower than the rate of
population increase, leading to a gradual increase in the built environment, from 1.3
million ha to 1.4 million ha between 1995 and 2010. About 40% of the additional built
environment expands into bare land or “other” land, while another 40% expands into
agricultural land. The remaining 20% expands into existing forest.
For the purposes of this study, agricultural land requirements are assumed to increase at
the same rate as population. A more complete analysis was considered too complex toundertake during the workshop. However, some insight into how agricultural land areas
might change under the scenario assumptions can be gained from the following long-termgoals identified by the participants:••

Food security (over 300kg rice equivalent / person / year)
Population stabilization at a little over 100 million people

In 1995 paddy output was 25 million tonnes, or between 300 and 350 kg per capita, close
to the minimum for food security (GSO, 1999). To maintain or raise that level,
agricultural production must at least keep up with population growth. However, there ispotential for reducing the amount of land required to produce the same agricultural
product, either by increasing multiple cropping or by raising yields (SEMA, 1999a). On
the one hand, if production were to exceed the minimum required for food security, thenwithout any productivity improvements land area per capita would increase. On the other
hand, if food production were maintained close to the minimum level for food security,and productivity were increased, then land area per capita would decrease. The
assumption of constant agricultural land area per capita can be seen as a middle route
between these two extremes. Agricultural land expands at the rate of about 113 kha/year,
from 8.6 million ha to 10.3 million ha. As it expands, it pushes onto bare land and, to alesser extent, forest land. The displaced bare land represents land that might have beenreforested, so to some extent it reflects a loss of potential forest area.

8

There is assumed to be sufficient afforestation in the scenario that the total forest area
increases, consistent with the long-term goal of reestablishing the country’s forests.
However, accomplishing this will be challenging in light of conversions of forest landand potential forest land to other uses.
4.4 Industry
As the economy grows in both scenarios, its structure shifts to reflect a greater degree ofindustrialization. In the Reference scenario the industrial share of GDP increases from
29% in 1995 to 41% by 2010. In the Policy scenario the increase is slightly faster, rising
to 42% by 2010. Industrial value added therefore grows much faster than GDP, at 9% peryear on average in the Reference scenario, and 11% per year on average in the Policy
scenario. These rapid increases, taken by themselves, would imply similarly rapid
increases in resource consumption and pollutant emissions in the industrial sector.
Within the industrial sector the structure changes as well. In both scenarios, the “Other”
industrial subsectors gradually decline from 78% of total value added to 68%, while theMetallurgical, Building Materials, Chemical-Fertilizer and Paper subsectors gradually
increase their share of total industrial output. Of the different subsectors, the ChemicalFertilizer subsector is least energy-intensive, while the Metallurgical subsector is mostenergy-intensive.
4.5 Transportation
In both scenarios, travel needs, expressed as passenger-km per capita or tonne-km perbillion VND, each increase. Passenger travel per capita increases by a factor of about
two, while freight transport per unit GDP increases by a factor of about four. However,
economic growth is much higher than population growth in the scenarios, leading tomuch higher increases in freight travel than in passenger travel.
The same energy efficiency improvements and vehicle shares are assumed in eachscenario. In both scenarios there is some penetration of electric buses and trains, leading
to lower petroleum requirements from within the sector.6 Also, because of the importanceof hydroelectric power in electricity production and the expansion of natural gas,emissions due to electric vehicles are lower than those of petroleum-burning vehicles.
Due to the much greater increase in freight transport than in passenger transport, energy
requirements for freight increase much more quickly than do energy requirements forpassenger transport. In the Reference scenario, energy requirements for passenger
transport increase by 1.7 times between 1995 and 2010, while energy requirements for
freight transport increase by 17 times over the same period. The difference between the
scenarios is in the freight mode shares. Observing the greater importance of freighttransport to future energy resource pressures in the Reference scenario, in the Policy
scenario it is assumed that there is a shift from relatively energy-intensive road transport
6

In the PoleStar application prepared during the workshop, energy intensities for electric vehicles were notentered, since they did not lead to emissions within the sector. For this report, to connect electricity demand
to the electric generation sector, energy intensities for electric vehicles are assumed to be one-quarter theintensity of the corresponding petroleum-consuming vehicle.

9

to less energy-intensive water-borne transport. By 2010, water claims 50% of total freighttransport, compared to 25% in the base year. Combined with the considerable expansionof freight transport this can be expected to place strong pressures on inland waterways
and marine environments. As a result of the greater use of water transport in the Policy
scenario, freight energy requirements are 8% less than in the Reference scenario.
4.6 Energy
As a result of rising petroleum and electricity demand for transportation and the growing
energy demand for a variety of fuels in the industrial sector, energy requirements increase
considerably over the course of the scenario. The discussion here will focus onelectricity, the major energy conversion industry in the country.
In each scenario, a small amount of electricity is assumed to be exported, in addition to
the requirements of the industrial and transport sectors. Exports in the scenarios amountto about 5% of total demand. As electricity demand—and, with it, electricity
production—grows over the course of the scenario, the contribution from hydropower
declines as a share of production, replaced mainly by natural gas. The contribution fromhydropower drops from over 70% of the total to around 50% by the end of the scenario,
while the contribution from natural gas rises from just 5% in 1995 to 30% by 2010.
However, despite the declining importance of hydroelectricity as a share of production in
the scenarios, growth in demand in the industrial and transportation sectors is sufficiently
high that hydroelectric production increases by over 3 times over the course of theReference scenario. If the number of households with electricity increases, as modern
fuels gradually replace biomass in household energy consumption, then that demand
would add further to the rising requirements for electricity.
Energy-related air emissions increase rapidly in the scenarios. In the Referencescenario,
NOx emissions from industry and energy conversion increase by a factor of 4.0, and SOx
by emissions by a factor of 3.8, between 1995 and 2010. From the transport sector, CO2
emissions increase by 7.6 times over the course of the Reference scenario, and by 7.0
times in the Policy scenario, despite a focus on reducing emissions from the transport
sector. These increases suggest the need for strong policy action to avoid the impacts that
accompany economic development, in order to protect the health of people and theenvironment.
4.7 Water
As a result of rising water requirements by households, industry and agriculture,pressures on water resources can be expected to increase in the future. As incomes rise,household water use per capita increases as well. As a result, even though population
growth over the period 1995-2010 is fairly modest, water consumption rises rapidly. In
both scenarios, household water withdrawals increase by 4% per year on average
between 1995 and 2010. These increases imply pressures on water-delivery systems.
Water withdrawals by industry rise at an even faster rate, at around 10% per year in eachof the scenarios.

10In the base year, non-agricultural water uses are relatively unimportant. However,agricultural withdrawals would not be expected to increase at the same rate of nonagricultural withdrawals. Non-agricultural withdrawals in the scenario increase by around
5 times. Currently about one-half the crop area is irrigated (SEMA, 1999a). Although thisarea may expand, and although application of irrigation water may increase withincreased yields, the increases are unlikely to reach those in other sectors. As aconsequence, agricultural withdrawals can be expected to claim a declining share ofwater withdrawals in coming decades.

5 Conclusions
The scenarios produced during the workshop provide a first look at some of the possible
development paths Vietnam might pursue. The Reference scenario started with theexpressed plans and goals of the government, and investigated some of the possible
impacts on energy resources, air pollution, water requirements and land use. The purposeof the workshop was for training in the use of the PoleStar system software, and thescenarios are provisional. However, they suggest some potential future difficulties, if
socioeconomic goals are not pursued together with environmental goals.

11References
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). 1999. AQUASTAT
report on Viet Nam. http://www.fao.org/.
Hy, Nguyen Dac, Director, National Environment Agency Policy and Legislation
Department. 1999. Workshop presentation.
Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment, Vietnam—SEMA Project (SEMA).
1999a. Strategies for Forestry, Agriculture and Rural Development, Land Use
Planning and Environmental Harmonious Issues Within the Strategies. Hanoi,
Vietnam: SEMA.
_______. 1999b. Strategies for Industrial, Tourism and Transportation Development up
to 2010 and Integration of Environmental Considerations in the Strategies. Hanoi,
Vietnam: SEMA.
General Statistical Office, Socialist Republic of Vietnam (GSO). 1994. Vietnam Living
Standards Survey, 1992-1993. Hanoi.
_______. 1999. Statistical Yearbook 1998. Hanoi: Statistical Publishing House.
Thai, Nguyen Quang, Vice President, Development Strategy Institute, Ministry ofPlanning and Investment. 1999. Workshop presentation.
Rural Wood Energy Development Program (RWEDP). 1999. Table: Wood Energy
Consumption Data for Vietnam. http://www.rwedp.org/.
United Nations Development Program (UNDP). 1998. Country Background: Vietnam.
http://www.undp.org.vn/.

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