Session 2:LCS modeling

Junichi Fujino (NIES)
The 18th AIM International Workshop
14 December 2012, NIES, Tsukuba

Designed by Hajime Sakai

International trend• IPCC AR5 -> 2 degree• COP18@Doha -> MRV+NAMA• Rio+20 -> Green Growth• Japan -> New Energy and Climate Changescenario• …

2OC Stabilization (All Sectors)
Mitigation Options at National Level
8,000

Conventional Approach: transition withconventional path and carbon price

Water-Energy & others

Million Ton CO26,000• High Carbon Price• Climate Focused Technology Push
• Top-down/Supply-side actions

Infrastructure
Device Efficiency4,000Nuclear

Technology Co-operation Areas

Renewable Energy

2,000• Energy Efficiency• Wind/Solar/Biomass/Small Hydro• Nuclear/Low Carbon Infrastructure

Fossil Fuel Switch
Residual Emissions

02000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050
8,000

Sustainability Approach: aligning climate andsustainable development actions• Low Carbon Price• Bottom-up/Demand-side actions• Behavioural change• Diverse Technology portfolio

Water-Energy
Reduced Consumption

Technology Co-operation Areas• Transport Infrastructure Technologies• 3R, Material Substitutes, Renewable Energy• Process Technologies• Urban Planning, Behavioral Changes

Million Ton CO26,000Recycling
Material Substitutions

4,000

Device Efficiency
Renewable Energy
Infrastructure

2,000

Fuel Switch
Residual Emissions

02000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

P.R.Shukla, panel discussion, COP18 side event, 30 Nov 2012, Doha

Low-Carbon Society Scenarios in Asia using AIM

Japan

Guangzhou
China

IskandarMalaysia

Shiga
Japan

Shiga
Japan

Kyoto
Japan

Jilin
China

Ahmedabad
India
India

Bhopal
India

ThailandIndonesia

Japan

Putrajaya
Malaysia

Cyberjaya
Malaysia

WhatisNEXT???

Vietnam Bangladesh

http://2050.nies.go.jp

Events• April, Knowledge Platform Seminar (IGES, JICA, NIES),
East Asia Low Carbon Growth Partnership@Tokyo• May, LCS workshop@Phnom Penh and Hanoi• June, LCS workshop@Jakarta• July-Aug, AIM training workshop@Tsukuba• Oct, LCS Research and Strategy workshop@Bangkok,LoCARNet (Low-Carbon Asia Research Network) 1st
Annual meeting@Bangkok, Symposium “Roadmap
toward Low Carbon Development in Asia”@Tokyo• Nov, COP18 side event @Doha• Dec, AIM International Workshop@Tsukubaand more…

1. Creating Regional Low Carbon Knowledge Hub(active learning & pooling of research findings and past experiences)

East Asia
 One-day Ministerial Dialogue on lowcarbon growth in East Asia in April
2012 in Tokyo / JICA, NIES and IGES
introduced the concept “East Asia
Knowledge Platform for Low
Carbon Growth”
 Dialogue held in the context of theEast Asia Summit (EAS)

http://www.iges.or.jp/en/cp/activity20120414.html

 Shaping international framework(reducing uncertainty, e.g. REDD+)
 Coping with rapid urbanization andmotorization
 Appropriate utilization of market
mechanism

6AIM training workshop, 26 Jul 2012, Tsukub

modeling bridge science and policy• 2 degree -> totally different world fromtraditional growth• Asia -> half of global population and emissions• Diversity of Asia -> different development stage• Japan -> lower attention to climate change afternuclear accident, higher awareness of energy
saving and renewable energy• challenge -> provide methodology, scenarios androadmaps to stakeholders quantitatively how tomake happen LCS for higher QOL

9Jiang Kejun, panel discussion, COP18 side event, 30 Nov 2012, DohaLoCARNet: Low Carbon Asia Research Network
An open network of researchers, research organisations, as well as likeminded relevant stakeholders that facilitates the formulation andimplementation of science-based policies for low-carbon development inAsia.

Lessons learnt from activities and outcomes from dialogues
between Researchers and Policy-makers in Asia

Synthesis Reports: http://lcs-rnet.org/publications/index.html

2012 October in Thailand (LoCARNet 1st Annual Meeting)Seven priority topics were discussed: “policy-making processes and use of integrated assessment models”;“land use and forestry”; “GHG inventories as bases”; “low-carbon cities”; “local level practices/ decisions /initiatives”; “institutionalisation of low-carbon green growth”; and “technology for leapfrogging”.
10Shuzo Nishioka, panel discussion, COP18 side event, 30 Nov 2012, DohaInternational trend• IPCC AR5 -> 2 degree• COP18@Doha -> MRV+NAMA• Rio+20 -> Green Growth• Japan -> New Energy and Climate Change
scenario• …
Good content and Timing is important!

Sustainable
Low-Carbon Asia
comes fromdesignandco-working…

Let’s work together!
fuji@nies.go.jp