Overview of APEIS-IEA
FY2003 Research Progress and FY2004
Implementation Plan

9th AIM International Workshop
12-14 March 2004
NIES, Tsukuba
1Integrated Environmental
Assessments (IEA)
AIM Model Development for APEISStrategic database• A set of integrated assessment models as major tools of
AIM/ Energy
AIM/ Ecosystem
APEIS, including anenvironment-economy
model,
an
Institution,
Management,
Adaptation
ecosystem/health impact model, a waterTechnology,
Databaseresource/agriculture model, a material/recycle-economy
Scenario
Assessment
AIM/Bottom-up
model
AIM/Top-down
AIM/Endand-use an energy technology
AIM/Top -down model
AIM Family• Strategic database as well as indicators for APEIS
Model Base use
AIM/Material
AIM/Trend• Systematic projections of environmental trends as well
Strategy
as assessments of innovation needs andOption
innovation
Index Base
Base
options based on the above models and database/Technology/Country/Water/Impact
Temperature

A bottom-up
technology
selection model ofenergy use andemissions atcountry and local
level

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem models,
Sunshine
including a vegetation
dynamics model, a waterLand use
Water resource
resource model, an
Crop
agricultural productivity Socio-economic
indicator
Productivity
model and a health impact
Impact on food demand
model

Adaptation strategy

A bottom-up
Country technology
Based&Technology
land use model
for
Model
Asia-Pacific region

Environmental
Environburden
mentalBurden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer

Environment Fund
WastesRecycleAn environmentOne
country CGE model
economywith
CO2interacted
and material
model withmaterialbalance,interfacewithbalance and recycling
environmental
process modules
technology
model

A general-equilibrium-type
World Economic
Model model
world economic

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)

Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

Futureeconomic
economic trend
trend

Futureenvironmental
environmental trend
trend

Korea
Developed as a
ChinacommunicationIndia
platform in order
to construct
ThailandJapan
Asia --pacificregional environmental
outlook supported withmulti --regional environment -economic CGE model2

FY2003 Progress of APEIS-IEA(i) Provision of a set of integrated assessment models(second version) :・Extended version of AIM/Trend for the World・Advanced version of AIM/CGE
・Advanced version of AIM/Material
・Advanced version of AIM/Energy
for extended countries
・Preliminary version of integrated AIM/Ecosystem
・Advanced version of AIM/Water(ii) Provision of advanced version of strategic databasewith indicators focusing on Environmental Efficiency(iii) Provision of projections of environmental trends aswell as assessments of innovative options focusing on
selected countries(iv) Holding Training Workshop at AIT, Thailand

3

Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) for APEIS
AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Cropmodel, an agricultural Socio-economic
indicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

Temperature

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Bottom-up
A bottom-up technology& land use model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Material

Environmental
Environburden
mentalBurden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer
Environment Fund
WastesRecycleA environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

AIM Family

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Korea

India
Japan

4

Integrated Environmental Assessment
Model
AIM/Energy
+Air
+CGE

+Top-down

AIM/Material

Application
Assessment of Air Pollution
Reduction Policies(Emission Projection,
Diffusion
Health Impacts)

Policy Needs
Clean Air for Major Cities
in Asia-Pacific(Beijing Clean Air Project)

Mitigation/Adaptation
Assessment of Technology
Strategy of Climate Change
Options for Climate Change
Long-term Emission Scenarios
CDM assessment for China
Strategy of Environmental
Assessment of Effects ofIndustry, Waste Treatment,
Environmental Constraints
Water Pollution, Climate
and Investments
Trade-off between air pollution Change, Health Policy, etc.
and health impacts

5Integrated Environmental Assessment
Model

Application

Policy Needs

AIM/Ecosystem

Assessment of Natural Capital, Strategy for Ecosystem
Landuse Change, Water Stress, Conservation
Energy Supply etc.

AIM/Trend

Projection of Greenhouse Gas Communication Tool for
Emission (GHG), Water Supply Policy makers
and Demand, Wastes, etc.

AIM/CGE

Assessment of Free Trade
Agreement
GHG Stabilization Scenarios

Strategy for Environmental
Policy through Trade
Mitigation Strategy of
Climate Change

Strategic
Database

Assessment of innovation
technologies under different
socio-economic scenarios

Strategy of Environmental
Industry, Waste Treatment,
Water Pollution, Climate
Change, etc.
6AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Cropmodel, an agricultural Socio-economic
indicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

Temperature

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

1200
A simple technology
selection model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM Family

1000
Environmental
burdenEnvironmental
Burden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry

800

Consumer

Environment Fund

RecycleEnvironmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

600

A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

80

Agriculture

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Korea

India
Japan

Industry

60

Transport

40

Service
400

Urban
Rural

0

2. 0%
Ref erence
CO2 Mi t i gat i on
Mul t i -Gas

%

20

1. 5%

CO2 Onl y
Mul ti -Gas

1. 0%
0. 5%

5

Year

00

80
90
20

21

60
70
20

20

40
50
20

20

20
30
20

20

20

20

00
10

0. 0%
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100

Gt-Ce

Other

Power

Rural

Urban

Transport

Commerce

Paper

Copper2. 5%0

AluminumLess than US$50/t-C

GDP Loss

25

10

Glass

No CostTot al GHG emi ssi on

15

Brick

CementAccumulated Emission Reduction, Mt-C

Calcium

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

fertilizer

0Ethylene0

Ammonia

-20

Steel

200

20

20

A environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

WastesCOst, US$/t-C

AIM/Material

Emission reduction potential by Sector in 2010

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Top-down

Mt-C

AIM/Bottom-up

Year

7

Implications of Natural Gas Import Limitations(NGIL) in Thailand
Oil Use under NGIL

Biomass Use under NGIL

60

60

50

50

40

40

30

30

NGIL10NGIL20NGIL30NGIL40Base case20
10

NGIL10NGIL20NGIL30NGIL4020
10Base case

-

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2000

2025

•
70

2015

2020

2025

There are limited resources of Natural Gas in
Natural gas imports has been analyzed using theNGIL10NGIL20

AIM/Enduse model of Thailand.

NGIL3050

2010

Thailand. Impact on energy mix due to limits on

Coal Use under NGIL
60

2005

Year

Year

NGIL4040

Base case

30

•

20
10

In cases withsmaller availability of natural gas

through imports, more oil and biomass resource

2000

2005

2010

2015
Year

2020

2025

would have to be used in Thailand while coal use
would remain almost unaffected (see figures).
8AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Cropmodel, an agricultural Socio-economic
indicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

Temperature

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Bottom-up
A simple technology
selection model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Material

Consumer

RecycleEnvironment Fund
WastesEnvironmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Korea

India
Japan

Reference case results

5

Research on new technologies

4
Index (1993=1)

A environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

AIM Family

Environmental
burdenEnvironmental
Burden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry

AIM/Top-down

3GDP
CO2 emissions
SO2 emissions
land for agriculture,
pasture and forest
Environmental
water supply
Constraints
water pollution

2

1

0
1993

2000

2010
Year

2020

2030
9

Economic Impact from
Environmental Constraints
0.5

Environmental
constraints➜Income reduction

0.0
GDP change %

-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5

env. const

-3.0
-3.5
1993

2000

2010
Year

2020

2030
10

Effects of Environmental
Investments Environmental
0.5
0.0
GDP change %

-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5

Environmental inv.
➜Reduction of inputs
for economic activity➜Costsinvestments➜mitigation of
constraints➜Incomeincreaseenv. const
env. const + early investment

-3.0
-3.5
1993

2000

2010
Year

2020

2030
11

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Cropmodel, an agricultural Socio-economic
indicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

Temperature

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Bottom-up
A simple technology
selection model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Material

Environmental
burdenEnvironmental
Burden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer

RecycleEnvironment Fund
Wastes

A environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

AIM Family

Environmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Korea

India
Japan

Contribution to Millennium
Ecosystem Assessmentz Quantification of global long-term scenariosof natural and social environment
AIM models utilized for MA
9 AIM/Ecosystem

SOx, NOx, Land use change, Biomass energy
9 AIM/Water

Country-wise water-use (withdrawal and consumption),
Country-wise renewable water resource, Spatial
distribution of water-use and renewable water resources,
Basin-wise water stress index
9 AIM/Agriculture

Potential crop productivity of Rice, Wheat and Maize
12AIM/Ecosystem

Simulation Results (Forest area)
8800008000007600002050

Forest (1000ha)

8400002025
YearGlobalAsia
Forest (1000ha)

Forest (1000ha)

OECD

7200002000

4000000

400000350000300000250000
2000

2025
Year

2050

3800000
3600000
3400000
3200000
3000000
2000

2025
Year

2050

globalGO TG
Global Orchestration (GO)Technogarden (TG)econ
env
Order from Strength (OS)Adapting Mosaic (AM)OS AM
regional
In any scenario, forest area decrease at the beginning of 21st century.
Globally, forest in 2050 is smaller than that in 2000.
Pressure from other land use; agriculture, pasture & biomass plantation
GO: Pressure from meat demand & plantation biomass
OS & AM (-2010): Pressure from general food demand
13
Pressure from globalization; GO & TG

2000

AIM/Water

2100

Global Orchestration

Water withdrawal per unit area in 2000 and2100-Developing countries: Water demanddensity will increase especially under GO
and OS.
-China & East Europe: Water demand
increase under GO because of quite higheconomic growth rate.
-Africa, Middle East & South Asia: Water
demand increase under OS because ofquite high population growth rate.

0

Order from Strength

Technogarden

100 101 102 103 (mm/year)

Water Withdrawal (total)

14

Adapting Mosaic

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Socio-economic
Cropmodel, an agricultural indicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

Temperature

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Adaptation strategy

Energy related GHG emissions

A simple technology
selection model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Material
A environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

AIM Family

Environmental
burdenEnvironmental
Burden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer

WastesRecycleEnvironment FundEnvironmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

AIM/Top-down
A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend

Futureeconomic trend

Futureenvironmental trend

A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Korea

India
Japan

Energy related CO2 emissions(Gt-C/yr)25

CO2 emissions
20
15
10
5
0
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

AFR
CO2 emissions share of Asia
LAM
will be increasing from 32% in
MEA2000 to 44% in 2050.
EEU
EUR
CAN
Energy related CH4 emissions
USA
SOA
share of Asia will be around
SEA
60%.
EAA
0.6
IND
AFR
CHN emissions
CH4
LAM
OCN
0.5
MEA
JPN
EEU
2050
0.4
EUR
CAN
0.3
USA
SOA
SEA
0.2
EAA
IND
0.1
CHN
15 OCN
0
JPN
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

Energy related CH4 emissions(Gt-C eq/yr)

AIM/Bottom-up

AIM/Energy/Technology/Country

AIM/Ecosystem/Water/Impact

A bottom-up
technology selection
model of energy use
and emissions atcountry and local level

Precipitation
A set of ecosystem
Sunshinemodels, including avegetation dynamics
Land use
Water resource
model, a water resource
Cropmodel, an agricultural Socio-economic
indicator
Productivity
productivity model andImpact on food demanda health impact model

Temperature

Emission Intensity of SO2 in China

Adaptation strategy

AIM/Bottom-up
A simple technology
selection model for
Asia-Pacific region

AIM/Material

Environmental
burdenEnvironmental
Burden Environmental
Industry
Green Purchase
Industry
Consumer

WastesRecycleEnvironment FundEnvironmental
BurdenEnvironmental Industry(waste management, recycle)
Technology assessment

Technology needs

Research on new technologies

FTA impacts on Asia

A general-equilibriumtype world economic
model

AIM/Trend
A reduced-form
model to project China
future socioeconomic
Thailand
trends andenvironmental
change for all
42 countries

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Korea

India
Japan

6.0%

GDP change in 2010

5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
World

ROW

FSU

EUR

NAM

ANZ

IDI

ASEAN7

CHN

-1.0%

KOR

0.0%
JPN

GDP difference (%)

A environmenteconomy integrated
model with materialbalance and recycling
process modules

AIM Family

AIM/Top-down

16

FTA impacts on Asia
SO2 emissions change in 2010

8.0%
6.0%
4.0%

-4.0%

World

ROW

FSU

EUR

NAM

ANZ

IDI

ASEAN7

-2.0%

KOR

0.0%

CHN

2.0%
JPN

SO2 emissions difference (%)

10.0%

17

NOx emissions
Emi ssi on i n Chi na in China
NOx

GDP
growthGDPchangein 2010

6.0%

3. 5E+13
3. 0E+13

4.0%

2. 5E+13

3.0%
2.0%
1.0%

gNOx

Regional Economic
Cooperation and its
GrowthPol i cy
Mar ketBase

2. 0E+13
1. 5E+13
1. 0E+13
5. 0E+12

0.0%

Environmental Impacts
on Social System

Bangkok Air pollution
Malaysia Deforestation

20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
20
15
20
18
20
21
20
24
20
27
20
30

World

ROW

FSU

EUR

NAM

ANZ

IDI

ASEAN7

CHN

-1.0%

KOR

JPN

0. 0E+00

National/Local
Year
Environmental
Environmental
recoveryproblems 0.5 Environment and GDPinvestments
0.0

400000Forest (1000ha)

As ia
350000

Environmental
Impacts
300000on Ecosystem-0.5
GDP change %GDP difference (%)

5.0%

-1.0
-1.5
-2.0

Environmental inv.
-> Reduction of inputs
for economic activity-> Costs->mitigation of
constraints->Income
increase

Estimate Role ofEnvironmental
250000Investment
2000
2050
Forest Areain Asia 2025
Year
Towards SD
Integrated Assessment of Environmental
18
Innovation Options for Sustainable Development-2.5

env. const

env. const + early investment

-3.0

-3.5
1993

2000

2010

Year

2020

2030

Concept of APEIS Strategic Database
MODEL
AIM/Energy, AIM/Material
AIM/Trend, AIM/CGE
AIM/Ecosystem

Policy Maker’s
Conference

Policy Design& Assessment

Futureeconomic trend
Futureenvironmental trend

Case Study

Korea

RISPO

China

Scenario
Assessment

India
Thailand

individual
Population,individual
GDP,technology
Emission,technology
PolicyOption,Constraint ...

Japan

Monitoringdata by IEM
Expert Meeting

individual
individual
Law,individual
Policy,Operation,individual
Target,Tax,
Management,
technology
technology
technology
technology
FinancialMarketGovernance...
...

Institution and Management
Database

Scenario
Database

Discussion on Availability
and Barrier of Environmental
Innovation Strategy

individual
individual
Energy,technology
Pollution,IT
technology...

Technology
Database

individual
Ecosystem
individual
Water,
technology
technology
Agriculture,
Health ...

Adaptation
Database
19

Objective of APEIS Strategic Database

Path to low environmental stress industries
and lifestyle by making best use of innovativetechnologies(Strategic Database gives the best timing andapplicability of technologies toward environmentallysound society and estimates their impacts)
Innovative
Technologies

Innovative Social
SystemBreakthrough ofSocial Barrier

Environmentally Sound Society(Low Environmental Loads & High Quality Life)
20

Items of Innovation Strategy
Innovative Technologies
NanoTechnology

Environmental
PolicyBioTechnology

Energy Tax
SO2 Trading

IT

Application
Climate Change
Wastes Management

Purification of
Natural Gas
Soil/Water
Sales Campaign
Public Bus

Environmental FundEnvironmental Information
Innovative Social System

21

CO2 emission is estimated by SDB
Fuel cell vehicle fueled by by-productH2 of industrial process

SDB cards are usedaccording to socioeconomic scenarios

Fuel cell vehicle fueled by H2 from oil
Bikeway80

Eco-drive
License

A1

70

A2

CO2 Emission (MtC)

60

B2

50
40

B1

Virtual communication
systemAdvanced car
sharing system

30

Gasoline hybrid
vehicle

20
10
0
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

Fuel cell vehicle fueled by
H2 from natural gas

Bio-ethanol

22

Innovation strategy in CO2 reduction case
Japanese Transportation Sector

CO2emissions from gasoline
vehicles (Mt-CO2)

120

Conventional
100

High efficient gasoline

80
60 Communication System+ High efficient gasoline
40
High efficient gasoline+ Hybrid+ CS + SS
20
0
2000

2010

2020

* Carbon tax: 10,000 Yen/t-C
High efficient vehicles will be
introduced by carbon tax.

2030

Market Case
Carbon Tax CaseHigh efficient remotecommunication system +Carbon Tax
Remote system +Car sharing + Carbon tax
Virtual Communication System (CS)・Price ：800,000 Yen (Max)・work at home：3 days per week
・Saving ：Transportation time Gasoline
・Share ：2% in 2005 to 50% in 2030
Car Sharing System (SS)・Price ：130,000Yen/Year (Max)・Persons to share a car：3 persons
・Share ：2% in 2005 to 50% in 2030

Combination of virtual communication
system and car sharing can reduce 23
CO2 emissions greatly in future.

Japanese companies have started
to invest in about 400 technologies
in the environmental field• Zero-emission technologies• Information technologies• Bio-technologies• Nano-technologies, etc.
Environment improvement
is a major factor influencing
this investment

24

Indian Transport Sector : Roadmap
Coverage

Passenger Cars, lightcommercial vehicles & heavy
duty diesel vehicles

2 & 3 wheelers

Entire Country

Bharat Stage II * - 1.4.2005
EURO III Equivalent - 1.4.2010

111 major cities(Delhi / NCR,
Mumbai, Kolkata,
Chennai,Bangalore,
Hyderabad,
Ahmedabad, Pune,
Surat, Kanpur &Agra)

Bharat Stage II - 1.4.2003
EURO III Equivalent - 1.4.2005
EURO IV Equivalent - 1.4.2010

Bharat Stage II 1.4.2005
Bharat Stage III+ Preferably from
1.4.2008
But not laterThan 1.4.2010* EURO II equivalent Indian vehicular emissions norms+ To be reviewed in 2006 for enhanced implementation

25

Narrative Description Card
Sales Campaign for Electric Vehicle
Reva: India’s First Electric Car
Reva is the India’s first zero-polluting electric vehicle heralds a newera of non-polluting, cost effective, quiet city transportation - A boon
for city commuters. This elegant, light-yet rugged, two-door sedan
comfortably seats 4 people. It has a range of 80 kilometers in stopand-go city driving, and a top speed of 65 km/h. Reva runs 80 Km
on a single charge of 9 units of electricity. The cost of the vehicle isapproximately $ 7000.
Eco-Friendly
Being an Electric Vehicle, Reva is zero polluting and noiseless. It does not require
frequent oil changes. Moreover Reva has high recyclable content
High on Technology
Two computers and the state-of-the-art electronics in the Reva provide an efficientenergy management system with advanced computerized vehicle diagnostics. The
regenerative braking in the Reva recovers useful electricity by putting it back into thebatteries. Regenerative braking lets the motor act as a generator, converting thevehicle's momentum into electricity….
26

Soci-Economic Scenarios in passenger transportation sectors
IA1► High globalization and growthIA2► Economic development along the samelines as existing government policies► High transportation service demand→ Growth in allied sectors► Increase in share of commercial Energy► Efficiency Improvements► Lower trade flows and relatively slower
technological change► Key Drivers: competition and private
participation, Access to global finance andtechnology, Technology R&D, transfer andcapacity building, Reduced risk perception► Key Drivers: GDP growth, Energy
efficiency, Non-fossil fuels vs. fossil fuels,
Oil consumption, Technological change,
Movement on the fuel ladder

IB1

IB2

► Sustainable development scenario with highenvironmental and social consciousness► Efficiency improvement, low and carbon
free technologies, and cleaner fuels► Key Drivers: Strong environmental
awareness and conservationist values,
Environmental integrity, consumptionchanges, Shift away from fossil fuels, Local
capacity building► Low growth scenario with increased
decentralization of governance andinsulation of economy► Slow improvement in energy efficiency andpenetration of new technologies► Key Drivers: GDP growth, population, Local
emissions, Productivity, Importance ofAgriculture, Resource intensity, Selfreliance27

Other Innovation in India:
Joint Forest and Water Management• Community participationand local sustainable
development• Efficient conservation offorests and water
resources• Local livelihood
enhancement• Participatory Wastelanddevelopment

Managed and unmanaged
areas in Rajasthan

Revival of Arabari Forest inWest Bengal

28

Messages from IEA
1. Technological innovation potentials for theenvironment are very large, much different
among countries, therefore great
opportunities of regional collaboration.
2. Technological innovation is effective if
integrated with social innovations.
3. Policy options effective for global
environment can reduce local
environmental burden as well and enhance
technology development.
29

Messages from IEA (cont.)
4. Environmental investment in earlier stage ismore cost effective in a long run.
5. Globalization would introduce innovations
mainly in emission reduction, while it could
affect the incentives to sustain ecosystems
6. Free Trade Agreement would have varied
economic and environmental impacts on
different Asian countries
30

Expected Outcomes from IEA for Phase I
1) Integrated Environmental Assessment with AIM Family
Models2) Concept Design and System Development of Strategic
Database to Evaluate Environment Innovation Strategy
Options3) Apply Strategic Database to Selected Countries in Asia
4) Expand and Diffuse Environment Innovation Strategies
through Interaction with Policy-makers in Selected
countries
Scenario Analysis for Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment
Environmental Policy Proposal for Eco-Asia
Environmental Strategy Assessment in the Great
Mekong Subregion
31
Capacity Building in Asian Countries

Plan for the Second Phase of APEIS-IEA
1) Extended Application and Policy Assessment with AIM
Family Models
2) Application of Strategic Database to Specific
Environmental Problems in Asian Countries3) Modeling case studies of environmental strategies andchoice of policy instruments
4) Estimate Appropriate Timing to Introduce Environment
Innovation for each target Asia-Pacific country5) Expand and Diffuse Environment Innovation Strategies
through interaction with policy-makers
Sustainable Development Strategy in AsiaPacific Region
32Thank you !

33

Application of APEIS studies on
specific environmental problems
Regional economic cooperation
e.g. East Asia Community, Asia FTA

APEIS/Strategic
Database
RISPO policy
options

6.0%

GDP difference (%)

5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%

Innovative Social System

World

ROW

FSU

EUR

NAM

ANZ

IDI

ASEAN7

CHN

KOR

-1.0%

JPN

0.0%

National/Local
policy-makers interaction

Bangkok Air pollution
Malaysia Deforestation
0.5

Innovative Technologies-0.5
GDP change %IEM monitoringdata
AIM models
application

0.0

-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5

Environmental inv.
-> Reduction of inputs
for economic activity-> Costs

Environmental
investments->mitigation of
constraints->Income
increaseenv. const

env. const + early investment
Environmentally
Sound Society
National/Local
-3.0
-3.5
(Low Environmental Loads 34
Environmental
1993
2000
2010
2020
2030
Quality Life)
problems& High Year