The Profile

Scenario Assumptions

Population in year 2011

TotalIndia

Urban

Rural

37,71,05,760

83,30,87,662

7,25,97,565

2,00,59,666

5,25,37,899

23,68,145

19,17,002

4,54,059

1.22 billion

Madhya Pradesh
BhopalServiceDevice

EnergyStudy Area Delineated
2‐wheeler existing 2 stroke
2‐wheeler future 4 stroke
3‐wheel Auto existing 2 stroke
Petrol Car New
Petrol Car existing

Gasoline

MCV diesel existing Passenger
MCV diesel New Passenger
Train Passenger Diesel

Heavy OilHighSpeedDiesel

Bhopal District
Area of District 2,772 km².
Utilities andServices, 0.8transport, 6.9

Commercial,2.1

Land Use Distribution 2005
Utilities andServices, 1%

Recreation,
21%

transport, 4%

Residential,
53%

Public and Semi
Public, 14%

Industrial, 3%

Bhopal Land use Plan 2005

600000400000200000Year1985

YearYear
1985
1995
Two- wheelers

Year
2002

ACTIONS
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

BhopalYear 2005

Two‐ wheelers

347571.00

Autos/ Tempo

10127.00

Cars/Taxi
Buses

37455.00
8294.00

Year
2004
Cars/Taxi

Year2005

9854.00

Tractors/ Others

14675.00

Total

427976.00

Municipal
Corporation

Total Population

DecadalGrowthRate

2001

1991

Indore14749681091674

35.11

Bhopal14373541062771

35.25

Jabalpur

932484741927

25.68

Gwalior82702669076519.73

Source: Census of India, 2001, 1991

SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION in Seven Actions for LCS Scenario
Passenger
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Transport

FreightTransport

GREEN GOVERNANCE
HOLISTIC HABITATSUSTAINABLE STYLECELLULAR CITY FORM
FORM AND FLOWNURTURING NATURE
RURAL RICHES

Sustainable Style – Low Carbon Lifestyle• Introduction to environmental concerns• Use of energy efficient appliances• 3R principle• Change in lifestyle

HumanBicycle
WalkSolarSolar car

AnimalAnimal Powered Cart

Passenger
ServiceRuralForm and Flow – Integrating Transport with City Structure• Migration to Sustainable Technology• Connecting Cells• Enhance Public Transport• Traffic Management

Gasoline

Residential
Appliances
Lighting

Residential
Appliances
Water Heating

Electric Stove (existing)Microwave
Hot PlateElectricity

Train Goods ElectricHuman

Thela Freight

Sector wise energy use (2007‐08)

Four scenarios were developed to understand the emission and energy demand in Bhopal for year 2030. One scenario isbusiness as usual and three scenarios as Low Carbon Scenarios are considered with change in taxes for emissions and energy
demand and introduction of efficient technologies to reduce the carbon emissions.

SectorEnergy/ Fuel2.Transportation

340.10LPG (MT)

49,240.00

Fuel wood (MT)1,275.30

Kerosene (kL)

2,388.00

Diesel (kL)59,369.80

Petrol (kL)48,842.50

1

Residential

36%

2

Transportation

39%

Taxes and Discount Rate
CASE NAMEEMS_TAX
ENE_TAX
Discount RATECharcoal Stove

BL0033

CM1103033

CM2

Residential
Appliances
Cooking

Coal Stove
Biomass (crop Residue) Stove
Traditional Fuel wood Stove
Efficient Fuel wood Stove
Traditional Kerosene Stove
Efficient Kerosene Stove
LPG Stove
High Efficiency LPG stove Urban

Non
Commercial
Fuel wood

Sector wise emission in urban area (2007‐08)
S. No Sector
CO2 Emissions

In Scenario Counter measure 2, new technologies are introduced with limitation of maximum share. In this scenario hightaxes on emission and energy are introduced and the discount rate is reduced.

Coal

LPG

Quantity

Electricity (Mkwh)

In first Scenario Business as Usual the present trends of energy consumption, demography and vehicular growth isconsidered to continue in future. The business will run as usual and the shares of present technologies remain the same tofulfill the future demand with increased population and urban area.

Cow dung Stove

Efficient
FuelWoodFreightService
RuralBiogas Stove

Charcoal

Kerosene

Scenarios

1.Residential

Solar Cooker

Biomass

Freight
ServiceUrban

Train Goods Diesel
Tractor
3WFreight Tempo New
3WFreight Tempo existing
MCV diesel existing FreightHCV Truck
MCV diesel New Freight

Share of Human and Animal energy is restricted as it becomes the first option due to its emission characteristics.

Residential
Appliances
space Heating

Solar Water Heater
Solar Water Heater Efficient

Cow dung

Service

3WFreight Auto New 4 stroke
3WFreight Auto existing 2 stroke

In Scenario Counter measure 3, new technologies are introduced with no limitation of maximum share thus a free economy
for selecting the technology. In this scenario high taxes on emission and energy taxes are introduced and high discount rates
are introduced.

ResidentialAppliances
space coolingGas Geysers

Animal Powered Freight

In Scenario Counter measure 1,new technologies are introduced with limitation of maximum share. In this scenario no taxes
are introduced and the discount rate remains the same.

Air Conditioner Split
Air Conditioner Window
Ceiling Fan
Desert Cooler
Table Fan

Electric Geyser Storage
Electric Geyser InstantSolarAnimalHigh
SpeedDiesel

Residential
Appliances
Cooling

Solar Lamp

DeviceHeavy
Oil

Refrigerator ( Large )Refrigerator ( Medium)
Refrigerators (Small )Refrigerator ( Medium) High Efficiency

Kerosene Lamp

BOG

EnergyResidential
Appliances
Washing

CFL
Incandescent Lamp
Tube light
LEDPopulation

Goods Carriages

0Commercial, 4%Land Use Distribution 2021

Vehicular population in Bhopal
Trend of Vehicular population growth intwo decades in Bhopal

ElectricityWashing Machine Front loading Full Auto
Washing Machine Top loading Full Auto
Washing Machine Top loading Semi Auto
Washing Machine High Efficiency Urban

Biomass Based

2‐wheeler future ElectricElectric Car
HCV Electric Bus
Train Passenger Electric
3‐wheeler Auto 4 stroke
Hybrid Car
Electric passenger car

Industrial, 3.3

Residential
Appliances
TVV

Coal BasedBus CNG
Maxi Cab CNG
CNG passenger car

Residential,
58.9

Public andSemi Public,
16.4

Passenger
ServiceUrban

MCV Hybrid

NaturalGas

Recreation,
11.5

Flat Screen Television
LCD Television
Television
Plasma Television
Television High efficiency new
two wheeler efficientElectric Heater

Electricity

3‐wheeler Tempo existing 4stroke
Diesel Car New
Diesel Car existing
HCV existing Diesel Bus
HCV New Diesel BusServiceDevice

EnergyScenario

Efficient non comm Fuel wood Stove
Traditional non comm fuel wood stove

Key Drivers

Sustainable Low
Energy Efficiency, Sectoral
Carbon Residential demand, improved housing
Sector Scenario
designs, shared facilities

Critical Parameters
Energy demand (↓),
improved eﬃciency (↑),
use of non conventionalenergy sources (↑)

Sustainable Low
Carbon Transport
Sector Scenario

Shift from fossil fuels, high share Energy demand (↓),
of mass transit system, efficient improved eﬃciency (↑),
use of non conventional
Land development to reducedemandenergy sources (↑)

Climate CentricScenario

Carbon Tax, Global
Environmental Concerns, Rateof technological improvement,
Technology transfer

1050
5

Early penetration ofadvanced and clean
technologies, Technologyrate (↑)

Mass Transit system helping toimprove the traffic condition

Energy Demand in years for all Scenarios

Energy Demand for all Scenarios

Emissions for all Scenarios

Conclusions:
The simulations for energy demand and emissions BAU and LCS scenarios are carried based on the technologies andservice demand assumptions using AIM/Enduse Model in this study. Policy paths formulated in these scenarios show theThe simulations show that the GHG emission and energy consumption for transport sector increases in all the scenarios. The GHG likely rise in energy consumption, technology shift and CO2 emission in transport sector Bhopal. The study demonstrates
emissions in transport sector of Bhopal in 2005 were around 22 thousand ton CO2 which rise by around 3 times to 61 thousand tonthat significant emission mitigation can be achieved in LCS compared to the BAU scenario.
Simulation Output
The simulation is performed for Transport and Residential Sector. It was observed that Bhopal has 60% GHG emission reduction
potential over BaU level in the possible Low Carbon Society Scenario in transport sector.

CO2 in the target year 2030 under the BaU.

The simulation assessment of Counter measure 2 shows that in the scenario introducing free technology selection and highemission and energy taxes, technology using energy with minimum emissions is selected in which mainly animal and human energy.
In reality this is not possible to use such energy completely. Some limit for maximum allowable energy supply needs to be assigned.
Counter measure 1 and 3 displays the possible emission and energy demand reduction potential.

th19 AIM International Workshop

at NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

13‐14 Dec 2013

Policy decisions are crucial for reducing the emissions. With increasing concerns on environmental issues and risingpublic awareness the LCS scenario assumes a greater significance. The precise decisions on government policies
promoting efforts for emission reduction and use of cleaner fuels and technologies have a major contribution to make.

LCS Scenario in Transport andResidential Sector for Bhopal.

Dr. Kshama Puntambekar
School of Planning and Architecture, Bhopal,
INDIA