Environmental
Risks for
Socioeconomic
Development
Proceedings of the 3rd Russian-Japanese(2nd STEPS) Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment

Editorial Board:
Kiichiro Hatoyama,
Yu.L. Mazurov

MSU Publishers, 2018УДК 504.06
ББК 20.18

The publication is carried out with a support of the Fund of Protection of
Lake Baikal (Russia) and professor Mikhail Slipenchuk (Lomonosov Moscow State University).

Environmental Risks for Socioeconomic Development: Proceedings of the 3rd Russian-Japanese (2nd STEPS) Collaboration Seminar for
Sustainable Environment / Hatoyama, K. and Yu.L. Mazurov (Eds.). —M.: MSU Publishers, 2018. — 280 p.
This volume presents the original academic and applied results in thefield of environmental management for sustainable development obtainedby Japanese and Russian researchers from the University of Tokyo and theLomonosov Moscow State University. Materials included in the volume were
presented at the 3rd (2nd STEPS) Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for
Sustainable Environment held in Moscow, Russia, 8-10 August 2016. The
book is intended for researches, high-school teachers and students, all otherreaders interested in the engineering for green development and close fields.

ISBN 978-5-90363-194-0

All rights reserved© 2018 K. Hatoyama and Yu.L. Mazurov© 2018 Lomonosov Moscow State University

The 3rd Russian-Japanese(2nd STEPS) Collaboration
Seminar for Sustainable
Environment

International Scientific Seminar
held in Moscow, Russia, 8-10 August 2016

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Organized by
Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokio
Steering Committee:
H. Kato and M. Slipenchuk (co-chairs),
S. Chalov, K. Hatoyama, S. Kirillov, Yu. Mazurov,
and А. Pakina
Organizing Team:A. Klishina (coordinator),
E. Glukhova (secretary of the Editorial Board),
O. Garmaeva, R. Mamedov, and O. Zverkov

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
AND FUTURE WE WANT.
Preface and Acknowledgements

F

ive years ago, in early 2013, a Memorandum of Understanding
was signed in Tokyo between two divisions of the Tokyo andMoscow universities specializing in the field of environmental
management. In the autumn of the same year, Moscow hosted thefirst seminar on sustainable environment, convincingly demonstrating the broad prospects for the cooperation that had begun.
Over the years since that time, a stable partnership of the parties
on the problems of environmental sustainability has been formed.
Within its framework, seminars and publication of collections of
their works continue, students and postgraduate students are being
exchanged, the number of participants is growing, their geography
is expanding, and new directions are emerging. The development of
the partnership was supported by the government of Japan in theform of the STEPS program, aimed at enhancing the cooperation of
the University of Tokyo with the leading Russian universities. The
Russian-Japanese project on sustainability of the environment has
proved its viability, it continues to develop.
The project of cooperation between the Tokyo and Moscow
universities is aimed at the future, on the rationale for the contoursof the “Future we want”, the future that our countries need. Thiswas especially pronounced at the 3rd Russian-Japanese seminaron environmental sustainability, held in August 2016 at Moscow
State University. Its theme was defined as “Environmental Risks forSocioeconomic Development”.
4Preface

Defining the topic of the next seminar, its organizing committee
proceeded from an understanding of the growing importance forboth our countries, as well as the desire to integrate the effortsof the international scientific community to minimize natural andenvironmental risks. With such a statement of the issue, all theparticipants and guests of the seminar agreed. This, in particular,
was said at the opening of the seminar by the Dean of the Faculty of
Geography of Moscow State University Prof. S.A. Dobrolyubov, headof the Department of Nature Management, Member of the State
Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, Prof. M.V.
Slipenchuk, president of the International Geographical Union prof.
V.A. Kolosov, as well as the representative of the Japanese Embassyin the Russian Federation, Mr. Onishi Kazuyoshi.
The seminar was held in August, during the teacher and student
holidays. Nevertheless, it aroused undoubted interest amongprofessionals, as evidenced by the completely filled audience
where the meetings were held. The participants of the seminar, asa rule, reacted lively to the contents of the reports, asked pressing
questions. Very vividly passed and the poster session, held ingreat recreation on the 18th floor of the Geographical Faculty.
Exchange of views and discussions continued outside the seminarrooms.
Throughout the workshop, its participants repeatedly noted theinevitability of the manifestation of environmental risk factors indevelopment, both in the past and in the future. Natural disasters
are almost impossible to prevent. But they can be foreseen. And
you can adapt the society to their manifestation, reducing thethree most unfavorable consequences of their manifestation. Often,
reliable systems for monitoring disasters are expensive. But evenmore expensive are carelessness and irresponsibility.
Japan has accumulated a valuable experience in minimizing
and overcoming natural and environmental risks. This experiencedemonstrates the amazing results of reducing the number of victims
and victims during the manifestation of hazardous phenomena. In
addition, it demonstrates clear trends in reducing unit costs for
ensuring public safety and economic activity.
5

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

A similar situation is inherent in Russia. In our country there isa huge variety of natural conditions and natural phenomena, as wellas environmental risks of the consequences of economic activity.
At the same time, thanks to the achievements of geographicaland related sciences, natural and environmental risks have been
well studied, and a monitoring system has been established.
Developed in the Soviet period, urban development standards
reflect the imperatives of natural and environmental constraints inresettlement and economic activities.
True, in recent decades, many of these achievements have beenlost. However, at present the situation is radically changing. The stateis increasingly articulating the policy of territorial development of
the country, in which priority is given to the regions of Siberia and theFar East, where our neighbor is Japan. In Russia, the understanding
is growing that the success of the development of these regions will
largely depend on the adaptation of their population and economy
to the external conditions of development, on the skills to overcome
the adverse effects of natural and environmental risks, and on theability to perceive and comprehend the neighbors’ experience indealing with such issues.
The seminar organizers are aware of the fact that its success
was made possible primarily due to high professionalism and asense of civic responsibility for environmentally sustainable futureof human civilization of all its participants. In particular, we are
grateful to the key participants of the emerging partnership fromthe Japanese side: Prof. H. Kato, Prof. S. Sato and Dr. K. Hatoyama.
It is very important that this seminar was supported at allstages of preparation and holding with the Moscow university
administration and the Faculty of Geography, including Dean of
the faculty Prof. S.A. Dobrolyubov, Deputy Dean Dr. S.R. Chalov andProf. M.V. Slipenchuk, Head of the Nature Management Dept, whom
we also sincerely grateful.
We also consider it necessary to note the excellent work on
preparing and holding our seminar the whole Organizing Team
including Ms. A. Klishina (coordinator), Dr. E. Glukhova (secretaryof the Editorial Board), Ms. O. Garmaeva (University of Tokyo),6

Preface

Mr. R. Mamedov, and Mr. O. Zverkov, a wonderful person who, to
our great regret, passed away shortly after the seminar.
In conclusion should be stated that the seminar itself and the
publication of its materials were made possible due to the sponsorshipof the Protection of Lake Baikal Foundation. Participants of theseminar and the authors of this publication express their deep
gratitude to this foundation.
Fortunately, our cooperation from the very first steps develops
favorable political background what is naturally rather than bychance. We feel the interest and support from the political andbusiness circles in Japan and Russia. Now - it’s up to experts in thefield of ecology and environmental policy, firstly — up to young
scientists and teachers. The future belongs to those who understandthat the key to a sustainable environment in our time is becoming afactor of sustainable partnership among professionals.
This proceedings is published in the declared in our countries
cross-year of Japan in Russia and Russia in Japan. Its appearance
is our common contribution to strengthening cooperation between
Russian and Japanese scientists, to bringing our cultures closer
together, to deepening mutual understanding between our peoples.
Its publication is a real testimony of the interest of students andyoung scientists of Japan and Russia to better know each other,to make more active use of the geographical neighborhood factor
in the interests of a sustainable and prosperous future for ourcountries.

Yuri Mazurov
Coordinator of cooperation from Russian side
Professor, Department of Nature Management,
Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University

7

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Mikhail SLIPENCHUKHead of Department of Nature Management, Facultyof Geography, MSU, Dr. Sc. (Economics), Professor

Dear Japanese and Russian participants of the seminar, dear guests,L

et me open our next, the third Russian-Japanese seminar on
environmental sustainability. It is devoted to research of risksof adverse natural phenomena for the population and development of the economy. The topic of natural and environmental risks is
especially relevant nowadays. It is they who become more and moreclearly the real limits of growth, the real limitations of development,
the problem for the sustainable development of civilization. This isespecially true for our countries, for Russia and Japan. Therefore, theintegration of efforts in this area of representatives of science of ourcountries is so positively perceived in Russia and Japan.
This is exactly what was discussed yesterday during our meeting with the Japanese delegation at the State Duma of the Federal
Assembly of the Russian Federation. As one responsible for the development of inter-parliamentary contacts with Japan, I once again
note with satisfaction the interest of both sides in expanding ourcooperation in all areas, including scientific cooperation. Successful
scientific cooperation is possible only in a favorable general politicalclimate. But this climate is created as a result of the growing activityof all participants in international cooperation.
I believe that the cooperation of our two universities is making
its modest but very real contribution to building trust and mutual
understanding among the peoples of our countries. In essence, ourcooperation implements a scheme so understandable in the modern
world: sustainable academic cooperation - sustainable relations - sustainable development. Our cooperation, this is, thus, promoting theimplementation of Goal 17 of the recently adopted UN Sustainable
Development Goals - Partnership for Sustainable Development.
8

Opening Remarks

I do hope for a similar perception of our cooperation and the Japanese side. This is evidenced by a grant from the Government of Japan
received by the University of Tokyo for the development of the STEPS
program. The participation in the opening of the seminar by Mr. Onishi Kazuoshi, a respected representative of the Embassy of Japan in
the Russian Federation, can also be considered evidence of this, forwhich we are sincerely grateful to him.
I am sure that the seminar starting today, like the two preceding
ones, will become an important event in the professional contacts ofspecialists of our countries in the sphere of managing the interaction
between man and nature. The guarantee of this is the participation of
the leading Japanese scientists in this field, recognized in the worldof professionals from the University of Tokyo, the first Japanese university and still retaining leadership in the system of higher education in Japan. Let me express my sincere gratitude to Professor ShinjiSato and Dr. Kiichiro Hatoyama for providing such a vivid representation of Japanese scientists in our next seminar.
Another important prerequisite for the success of the opening
seminar is the participation in it of a number of leading Russian scientists in the field of environmental management and sustainable
development. They represent not only the chair of rational nature
management, but also a number of other subdivisions of the Facultyof Geography of Moscow State University, as well as other scientificand design centers of the Russian capital.
It gives me special pleasure to welcome in this audience the deanof the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor Sergey
Sergey A. Dobrolyubov. Being also the head of the department ofoceanology and one of the leaders of this scientific direction in ourcountry, he will present today a paper on achievements in this important field of science. I would like to take this opportunity to thankProf. Dobrolyubov for participating in this seminar and for his continued support of our Russian-Japanese project.
I would also like to greet our special guest, the President of theInternational Geographical Union, Professor Vladimir A. Kolosov,
one of the most famous modern geographers in the world. His par9

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

ticipation in our seminar is a clear sign of support for precisely thisvector of development of modern geographic science, a vector aimed
at integrating the achievements of geography proper with adjacentareas of knowledge. This is the direction of development of our science, which increases the demand for its results in the developmentof society.
In conclusion, I would like to wish all the participants in the seminar bright speeches and memorable, fruitful discussions. My special
wishes to the youngest participants of the seminar, Japanese andRussian students and post-graduate students. Many of them for the
first time take part in such a responsible scientific event. I would liketheir performances to be the beginning of a successful academic career of our university shift. I also hope that the cultural program ofthe seminar will successfully complement its scientific component.
And together they should, in the opinion of the organizers, form afirm commitment to our cooperation and an even greater interest in
our country and its scientific potential.

10

Opening Remarks

Sergey DOBROLUBOV
Dean, Faculty of Geography, MSU, Dr. Sc. (Geography),Member of the Russian Academy of SciencesT

he Faculty of Geography at Lomonosov Moscow State University was established on June, 23, 1938. The Director of the Research Institute of Geography, S.M. Lutskiy, was appointed tohead the new Faculty. The Faculty had the Departments of PhysicalGeography, Physical Geography of Foreign Countries, Physical Geography of the USSR, Economic Geography of the USSR, Economic
Geography of the Capitalist Countries, Cartography and Geodesy, andalso the Research Institute of Geography.
Nowadays the Faculty of Geography is the largest scientific andeducational center of geography in the world. There are 1 000 undergraduate students and 200 PhD students studying in the Faculty.
The Faculty consists of 15 departments, 8 research laboratories and4 field stations with total 800 employees. Among them there are:100 professors, 300 PhD, 1 Full Member and 4 Members of Russian
Academy of Sciences, distinguished scientists, laureates of State andGovernment Prizes of USSR and Russia in the field of education, science and technology, laureates of the Lomonosov and Anuchin Prizes
and many more. Approximately 30% of all dissertations in the field ofgeography in Russia are defended within the Faculty.
Studying
The Faculty of Geography has 150 government-sponsored places forentrants and in addition about 80 vacancies for students who pay for
their training (on the basis of a contract between a student and theuniversity). For Russian applicants, the admission is based on the results of General the State Exams. The average competition level is 5-6
applicants into place. The Faculty hosts the MSU Geographic Competitions (Olympiads) for high-school students, annually drawing in up
to 1,000 participants. In addition, the Faculty takes part in the organi11

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

zation of All-Russian and International Geographic Competitions. The
winners of these Olympiads enter the University without the exams.
To qualify for the admission to Bachelor and Master programs, foreign students must meet some general requirements. Students musthave an appropriate secondary school certificate and be proficient in
Russian. Once a person has been accepted at the Faculty of Geography
he or she is eligible for a number of services offered by Lomonosov MSU
such as accommodation, visa and registration support etc. The Facultyof Geography of the MSU trains specialists of the highest caliber. The
curriculum offers 2 levels of training. The training for the Bachelor’s
Degree lasts for 4 years, the Master’ Degree requires 2 additional years.
The training for Bachelor’s and Master’s Degrees is carried out inthe 5 main directions: «Geography», «Hydrometeorology», «Cartography and Geoinformatics», «Ecology and Environmental Management», «Tourism».
Science
A number of distinguished scientists contributing in establishment
and developing of geography were working at the Faculty. Several
main themes, most required in the recent conditions, can be marked
out from the scientific work carried out at the Faculty:
1.
Prognosis of the regional climate change using the XXI century
scenarios of the Global Circulation Models;
2. Hydrological estimates and forecast, securing the hydro-ecological safety;
3.
Diagnosis and prognosis of the extreme natural phenomena in sees;
4. Monitoring and estimation of the dynamics of the cryosphere;
5. Evolutionary-geographical methods of the climate change estimation;
6. Geomorphology-engineering analysis;
7.
Geoinformatics cartography technology and remote sensing of
the Earth surface;
8. Estimation of the social-economic and ecological consequencesof the National innovation projects realization;
9.
Landscape planning, estimation of the influence on the environment, the state of the natural and anthropogenic landscapes;
12

Opening Remarks

10. Monitoring and estimation of the biodiversity, medial geography research;
11. Integral estimation and prognosis of the ecological conditionsin the regions and cities of Russia;
12. The technology of the ecological optimization of the nature
management;
13. Engineering of the recreational territories.
An important subject entirely related to the aims of the geographical research “Conservancy and Sustainable Development of the Regionsof Russia” is included into the Programme of the MSU Advancement
up to the 2020. State Committee on the High Technologies and Innovations approved in 2011 the technological platform “Technologies of
ecological development”, which was initiated by the MSU, as the formof private-state partnership in mobilization of the possibilities of thestate, business and scientific community and as an instrument of theformation of the policy in science, technology and innovation. This
project is already used for shaping the most interesting technologies
such as remote sensing data use, the ecological situation in regions
and cities of Russia, integrated geochemical assessment, monitoring
and control of the natural hazards. The Ministry of Education and Science uses the experts of the platform for determination of the themesof the scientific project calls for the Federal Target Programmes.
Important scientific results are related to the realization of theRussian Government “megagrant” 2010–2014. A “Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory” was founded at the Faculty headed by German oceanographer professor Peter Koltermann. The main resultsof the Laboratory activity were related to the estimation of the
Natural hazards, which could become more or less active in dependence on the climate change in XXI century. The specialists of
the Laboratory implemented models allowing to provide a prognosis of rivers run off change to the middle of the XXI century,change in cyclonic and storm activity.
In 2014 a new “Arctic Environment Laboratory” was funded at theFaculty, with the aim of the detailed integral research of whole thecomplex interconnection between the ocean, land and the cryospherein the Russian Arctic.
13

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

In addition to whole spectrum spectrum of field geodesic meteorological and sampling equipment, the Faculty owns modern instruments for laboratory investigations. The ecology-geochemical research facilities are equipped by devices allowing inorganic analysis(graphite furnace and flame atomic absorption spectrometers, opticalemission, X-ray fluorescence and luminescence spectrometers, spectrophotometer), separation and organic analysis.
The researchers of the Faculty registered more than 10 patents inthe field of geography in the last few years. All of them have commercial potential.
The Faculty annually organizes not less than 10 National and International conferences and symposiums in the fields of geography
and the human-environment interaction.
Annually, the researches of the Faculty publish about 40 textbooks and about 30 scientific monographs and collected papers,
600–700 scientific reviewed papers also in World leading scientificjournals. 7-volumes fundamental work “Geography, Society and Environment” was published to the 250-years anniversary of the Moscow State University.
Traditions
The Faculty is famous for its traditions. The principal one is to maintain the contact between the Faculty and its alumni. From the earliest
scholars of the Faculty to the newest graduate, every alumnus andalumna is a part of the Faculty’s. Graduates arrange their meetings
annually. In 1998 the “Association of Alumni of the Faculty of Geography of the MSU» was established. Its main goal is to provide student bursaries, help veterans, arrange anniversary celebrations, andto participate in a variety of cultural and sports events.
The humanity has entered the XXI century. The technological progress continues and our nature changes with its pace. The role ofgeographical training is now not only to preserve nature, but also tocreate and maintain friendly environmental conditions for the purpose of sustainable socio-economic development. This has become
the main research and educational task of the Faculty of Geographyof the MSU.
14Opening Remarks

Onishi KAZUYOSHI
Embassy of Japan in the Russian Federation

Ladies and Gentlemen,Thank you for your kind invitation to the Third Russian-Japanese and the Second of STEPS Collaboration Seminar for
Sustainable Environment. This STEPS program by Tokyo University is being conducted in the framework of Re-Inventing Japan
Project by Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology. I
am honored to be given the opportunity to speak on behalf of the Embassy of Japan in Russia and would like to thank all the organizers
and participants who are contributing to this important Japan-Russia
bilateral event in scientific cooperation.
Science is becoming more and more important in the worldof diplomacy. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan has
held intergovernmental joint committees based on cooperationagreements on science and technology with many countries,
including Russia. At present there are various scientific issues
Japan is involved in such as the ITER project, the International
Linear Collider, nuclear power, the advancement of spacetechnology and activities, global environmental issues and polar
research to name a few.
Fortunately or unfortunately, I personally have had limited
experience in the field of science in my diplomatic career. The mostserious experience was that of the Fukushima nuclear accident in2011 which taught all of us in the fields of science and government
many important lessons about the relationship between scienceand diplomacy. At the time of the incident, I worked in the team at
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs which dealt with the International
Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Following the incident, the Ministry
had to give the whole international community all the information
available regarding the incident with maximum speed, accuracy and
15

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environmenttransparency. Risk communication for foreign citizens in Japan wasanother huge challenge and scientists and engineers had to clearly
explain the existing risks to ordinary people.
In relation to environmental sustainability, it is important thatcountries such as Japan and Russia work together and share ourscientific knowledge to make the best decisions for the future. This
is not only to make the best decisions for our own countries, but for
the world as a whole. Though we may live in different places withborders designed as limitations to the geographical and politicalspace in which we live, nature does not take heed of these ‘lines.’
When natural disasters occur and climate change affects weather
patterns the results of such occurrences transcend borders.
When we discuss global environmental risk within the context of
diplomatic conferences, it is indispensable for us diplomats to have upto-date knowledge on the subject matter under discussion and recent
scientific findings. For example, when holding discussions on the topic
of fisheries and sustainable resource management, Japan and Russia
jointly decide on catch quotas and joint scientific research plays animportant role as the basis for agreements between our governments.
More than 10 years ago, I worked as a young interpreter for scientists
in the fisheries industry. I had to remember many technical terms
related to fishery and sustainable resource management. A term I still
remember is the word “scale” or «чешуя», which I had never used in
the work of diplomacy before or since. In any case, the understandingof common terms and scientific findings is knowledge that should andmust be shared by all countries, so that it can provide a basis for common
interests and a point from which the best decisions can be reached. In
this sense, exchanges among scientists are extremely important.
Once again, I would like to express my sincere thanks forallowing me the opportunity to saying a few words here today. I amvery happy to see that so many of you involved in the field of bothscientific and environmental studies have gathered here to shareyour various findings and I wish you great success in this seminar
and with all your future joint endeavors.
Thank you for your kind attention.
16

Opening Remarks

Vladimir KOLOSOVPresident of the International Geographical Union,
Head of Department of World Economy, Faculty of Geography,
MSU, Dr. Sc. (Geography), professor

Dear colleagues, dear friends!

Let me please to cordially welcome you on behalf of theInternational Geographical Union (IGU), one of the oldest
global international associations uniting geographers of 90
countries.
The topic of the third Russian-Japanese seminar on sustainable
development, which is being opened today, fits perfectly into a numberof major international initiatives and programs. It corresponds tothe priorities of the United Nations — primarily the Earth Charter
adopted as a result of six-year discussions and affirming thefundamental values of a just, sustainable and peaceful global society
in the twenty-first century, the goals of the United Nations Decade of
Education for Sustainable Development.
The study of the risks of natural and man-made disasters is a very
important part of the most ambitious in the history of the research
program “The Future of the Earth”, created by a joint initiative of
the International Council for Science (ICSU) and the International
Council for Social Sciences (ISSC). Geography is well represented inthis program. Our seminar will promote more active participation of
the Russian and Japanese geographical communities in the projectsof the program.
On the initiative of the International Geographical Union, thisyear was proclaimed by UNESCO as the International Year of Global
Understanding. Its goal is to bridge the gap between the national
levels of political decision-making, in particular, to prevent theconsequences of natural and man-made disasters and the global
nature of society’s development and natural changes.
17

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Studies of natural and anthropogenic risks are the activities of
one of the leading commissions of the International GeographicalUnion, which for many years is headed by our Japanese colleague
Professor Sh. Haruyama. We highly appreciate the contribution ofJapanese geographers to the activities of our union. In 2013, the IGU
Regional Conference in Kyoto was a great success, gathering about
two thousand geographers from many countries of the world. I am
confident that Professor Yukio Khimiyama will be elected the nextpresident of the IGU at the International Geographical Congress tobe held this month. His works are well known in Russia, he visitedmany times in our country, including within the walls of Moscow
University.
The exchange of ideas at international seminars and conferences,
participation in joint projects and educational programs is one of
the main driving forces of world science. International meetingsof geographers always take place in an atmosphere of mutual
understanding and warm friendly communication. I wish theparticipants of our meeting fruitful work and new creative
successes.

18Plenary Reports

Session 1“Global environmental risk”

Sergey DOBROLYUBOV, Victor ARKHIPKIN,
Galina SURKOVA, Peter KOLTERMANN
Arctic Environment Laboratory, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University

Modelling natural risks
in the Russian seas

Introduction
Coastal zones are characterized by extremely high concentration of
the World’s population (producing >70% of the GWP). Integrationof the coastal structures into the economy goes far beyond coastal
regions, stresses on the economy and life conditions of the coastal
zones crucially impact on the economy and life conditions in the inland regions. All these make coastal zones highly vulnerable to natural hazards with the key concerns being that sea level rise or changes
in maritime storms cause flooding resulting in inundation and subsequently land loss. Responses to sea level rise have implications forwater resources, and the ecological balance in the coastal zone with
its ocean part and the neighboring land part. Increasing populationpressure on the coastal zone — more people moving to the coast because of enhanced economic development through increased use fortransport infrastructure, tourism, industry settlements — increases
the risk and vulnerability. The Russian coastal zones are characterized by strongly different conditions implying large differences in
the nature and character of extreme events. This requires very different approaches to the risk assessment of natural hazards in the
19The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

marginal Arctic coasts and the inland sea coasts in the Baltic, Black,
Azov and Caspian seas because approaches relevant for one area may
not necessarily be effective for the others.
Marine storminess represents the core of the direct local ocean
impacts and originates from the off-shore winds. According to Gulev
and Grigorieva [8], during the last several decades there has beena tendency of growing mean and extreme significant wave height(SWH) over the North Atlantic and North Pacific with a maximumof 10-12 cm per decade. Furthermore, in the coastal areas the trends
are typically higher than in the open ocean regions, being of up to
20 cm per decade. Importantly, wave extremes typically grow fastercompared to the mean values. For instance, for the Barents and Black
Seas 99th percentile of SWH was nearly doubled during the last 5-6
decades, while the mean values increased by 20-25%.
Climate model projections show that the midlatitudinal hydroclimate extremes will likely intensify and become more frequent forthe 21st century under all emission scenarios [11]. These projections,being quite robust on average, exhibit, however, a very large spreadand give little confidence in particular coastal regions. This is not
surprising given the large number of mechanisms involved. Even in
the advanced climate models such mechanisms as regional water vapor recycling and changing cyclone life cycle are poorly resolved.
Thus, scenario climate projections require regionalization or downscaling to regional scale. Importantly, the downscaling is just partly
a resolution issue — on small scales there are conceptual drawbacks
in large scale climate models. Moreover, realistic adaptation of thesemodels to specific coastal areas requires extensive use of observational data for validation purposes.
To identify and fill the gaps in our understanding the mechanisms and quantifying the intensity of extreme hazardous events inthe coastal zones of Russian Federation the Natural Risk Assessment
Laboratory (NRAL) were established at the Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University in 2010. During 2010-2016 NRAL
implemented a comprehensive research programme of ocean-related
extreme events in costal zones, centered on understanding their nonlinear nature and multifactor character. We developed a comprehen20

Plenary Reports

sive catalogue of climate extremes over coastal zones of European
Russia and performed high resolution diagnostic and modellingstudies of different types of extreme events resulting in natural hazards, such as extreme wind wave storms, extreme precipitation andassociated flash and river flooding, extreme temperature conditions
and abrupt changes in the local geochemical balances. In particular,
we understood that extreme wind waves may not necessarily follow
mean climatological values of wind and wave height and may exhibit
strong increases in magnitude even when the mean values are relatively stable, as in the Barents and Kara Seas [7].
Our studies clearly demonstrated that most of the coastal hazards are associated with the compound nature of climate extremes,
quantified through hydrological modelling using high resolution
models of wave modelling [1] and non-hydrostatic atmospheric modelling. To build an effective system which allows for the synthesisof ocean dynamics and atmospheric dynamics — we implemented
at NRAL most advanced wave models (WAWEWATCH and SWAN),
high resolution regional ocean model ROMS and the atmospherichigh resolution non-hydrostatic model WRF. Never before have allthese highly technological numerical tools been employed in a synergistic and holistic way, even at leading operational and forecasting centers.
The present paper highlights some results of a modelling studies
of storm waves in some seas near Russia during last decades basedon the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data [12]. The goal of this study was toassess modern climatic parameters of wind waves and storm surges
in the Black, Caspian, Baltic and Barents seas and to determine their
spatial, annual and seasonal variability.
Data and methods
Nowadays, numerical modelling seems to be the most appropriate
method of generating wind wave data sets. The main advantage ofthis technique is its flexibility relative to the formulation of initialconditions, the calculated parameters and the resolutions — both
temporal and spatial. Another advantage of modelling studies is thepossibility to perform hindcast and forecast calculations using ar21

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

chived or forecast wind fields. Operational wave forecasting on different spatial scales is a state-of-the-art field in which numerical modelling is used.These models are relatively well developed and provide
the wide range of configurations. However, for every individual region (the Caspian Sea, Baltic Sea, Barents Sea, Black Sea) the choiceof the best configuration is an unresolved scientific task dominatedby regional features.
A calendar of storm events was derived for the period 1948–2010
for this study. The numerical storm simulator SWAN (Simulating
WAves Nearshore) was used, a third generation wave model that wasdeveloped at Delft University of Technology. It computes random,
short crested wind-generated waves in coastal regions and inland
waters [4]. The model is based on the wave action balance equation(or energy balance in the absence of currents), with sources andsinks. It uses typical formulations for wave growth by wind, wave
dissipation by white-capping, and four-wave nonlinear interactions
Wind forcing data was extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis [12]at the 6-hourly intervals available (0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC
and 1800 UTC). The spatial resolution of the SWAN numerical grid
was about 5 km. An overview of numerical simulations is describedin [1,2]. For our study, days were chosen when modeled wave heightwas 4 m or more. The threshold of 4 m is based on the state standard
for safety in emergencies [3], which specifies waves of 4 m or more in
the coastal zone and 6 m or more in the open sea as hazardous. 412
storm cases were identified for the Baltic Sea, 137 cases for the BlackSea and 94 for the Caspian Sea between 1948 and 2011. Sea floor
topography (0.05 × 0.05 degree, rectangular grid) and surface windspeed and its direction are used as model inputs. The wind forcing
data set was extracted from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the 6-hourly
values available at 1.9×1.9 degree. Supercomputers “Chebyshev” and“Lomonosov” of the Moscow State University were used for the numerical experiments.
In contrary to the Black, Caspian and Baltic seas, we need to include swell from the North Atlantic for the analysis of the White andBarents seas. In this paper, we present the evaluation of the effectof the swell generated either in the North Atlantic or in the Barents
22Plenary Reports

Sea, on the waters of the White Sea. It turned out that the effect fromthe North Atlantic swell on the White Sea is negligible (height up to
0.2 m) for the area.
For the climate projection of storm events we used daily sea levelpressure (SLP) fields (0-90°E, 30-80°N) generated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model of Max Plank Institute ECHAM5/MPI-OM [17] within the framework of CMIP3 project [14]. It consistsof models for the atmosphere (ECHAM5) and the ocean (MPI-OM).
Global ECHAM5-MPI/OM SLP datasets were taken from the opensource CMIP3 archive at the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis
and Intercomparison (PCMDI) [http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov] for the
1960-2000 and 2046-2065 (SRES, emission scenario A2 [15]).
As shown in [17], ECHAM5-MPI/OM appears to closely reproduce
daily mean SLPs and the frequencies in circulation types, especiallyfor the late autumn, winter and early spring periods. This justifies
the use of the model because the majority of the storm activity in theBlack, Baltic and Caspian Seas is observed in the cold season.
Our approach of atmospheric circulation classification for storm
events relies on the understanding that storm waves are mainly the
product of wind speed and direction, which determine the value ofthe flux of momentum from the atmosphere to the sea. Storm wave
parameters also greatly depend on the sea size, its depth, bottom
relief, coastline configuration etc. But these factors are not resultsof atmospheric processes on as short a time-scale as one storm. It
is the surface wind that plays the most important role in individual
storm forcing. Fortunately, the pressure is the most reliable meteorological parameter reproduced by reanalyses and by climate generalcirculation models, and so a straightforward expansion of the study
to model data is possible. SLP has already been used successfully inprevious classification procedures, e.g. [10, 18].
The steps of our study were the following: to classify SLP grids
accompanying storm events (from now on referred to as storm SLP);
to extract the main features of circulation patterns for every type;to evaluate the frequency of every type for the modern climate andpossible changes in frequency in the future. The circulation types
are obtained by cluster analysis (k−means approach, e.g., [11]) pre23

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

processed by Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, e.g., [16]to reveal few leading modes determining the most part of variance.
These techniques of EOF decomposition and k-means cluster analysis, together or in combination with other techniques, are widelyused in circulation type classifications, e.g., [5, 18]. Firstly a dataset
consisting of 30 daily SLP grids was prepared for every storm fromthe calendar, including 15 days before and 15 days after each storm
day. After EOF decomposition of daily SLP grids, the first three eigenvectors were retained, describing more than 70% of the variability.
Therefore, high frequency perturbations were filtered out. EOF fieldsof sea level pressure for storm days (according to the storm calendar of the sea) were used as input variables to classify circulation
patterns. Definition of circulation types was carried out using the
k-means cluster analysis. In this study, cluster centroids (ensemble
mean of cluster members) were constructed for each circulation typeby averaging the SLP grids of all days that belonged to the same
circulation type.
The same procedure was also applied to the model data for theperiod 2046-2065, i.e. the correlation was calculated between dailymodel SLP and reanalysis SLP fields from the storm calendar. Before
this correlation procedure, the model data were interpolated on thereanalysis grid.
Results and Discussion
Storm events (with H ≥4 m) modeled by SWAN were included into
our storm calendar to classify the synoptic patterns that accompany
Black, Caspian, White and Baltic Sea storms. For example, time seriesof annual storm frequency for the Baltic Sea (Fig. 1) demonstrated
noticeable interannual and decadal variability. The relatively stableregime of 1950s and 1960s was replaced by a positive trend in the 1970s
which, while briefly interrupted at the end of the 1980s, continued
on until the first part of the 1990s. We also revealed an increase instorm activity in 1979-1989, maximum in 1992-1994, sharp decrease
till 2000 and a gradual increase until 2010 for the White Sea. No
valuable in the amount of storm situations were observed in thisbasin. The alternation of relative calm and stormy periods as well as
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Fig. 1. Time series of storm events (H ≥ 4 m) in the Baltic Sea from SWAN results.

the increase of storminess in approx. 1960–1975 is a typical feature
not only for the Black Sea, but also for other European seas, e.g. theNorth and Baltic Seas as shown by Matulla et al. [13].
Four main circulation types of SLP daily fields were revealed
for the Baltic Sea (Fig. 2). Types 1, 2 and 4 have several common
features, the main one being the dipole structure of SLP with negative

Fig. 2. Patterns of the four wintertime SLP circulation regimes for the Baltic Sea,
anomalies from 1961–2000 (hPa).

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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

anomaliesintheNorth and positivein the South. Despite
likenesses they differ
clearly in the positionof
their
negativeanomaly centers whichshows the diversity ofprevailing tracks of
Fig. 3. Relative (a) and absolute (b) frequency ofAtlantic mid-latitude
storm days in the Baltic Sea with wave height H ≥ 4 m,
cyclones. Types 1,
circulation types as in Fig. 2.
2 and 4 exhibit the
influence of westerly
air flow and cyclones moving with them towards the Baltic Sea along
different trajectories. In case of CT 1, the center of cyclones is locatedover the Baltic Sea, for CT 2 it is over the Norwegian Sea, and for CT
4 it is over the North of Scandinavian peninsula. Circulation Type3 is meanwhile completely opposite to others. This regime is often
referred to as Scandinavian blocking and is characterized by a strong
positive height anomaly over Northern Europe.
Storms in the Baltic Sea occur mainly in winter whereas summer
is relatively calm. The main trend for the two time periods 1961–
1980 and 1981–2000 was an increase in storm numbers, especially
under the CT 4 weather regime with its high cyclonic activity. The
comparison of CT regime for two periods, 1961–1980 and 1981–2000
revealed both an increase of the storm activity in the second period
and a redistribution of storm frequency (Fig. 3). Further analysis
showed weakening of CT 3 anticyclonic influence for the storm
activity and at the same time, an increase of cyclonic CT 1, CT 2andCT 4 importance.
Within the variety of the atmospheric circulation governing
the climate of the Black Sea, there are two main types of sea levelpressure field derived by cluster analysis and associated with SWAN
storm days (Fig. 4). For the first circulation type CT 1 (57% of events),
the trough moves to the Black Sea from the eastern MediterraneanSea, and often forms an independent local cyclone over the Black Sea.
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Fig. 4. Patterns of the two wintertime SLP circulation regimes (hPa) for the Black Sea.

The second type CT 2 (the other 43% of events) is characterized by alow pressure center over the Barents or Norwegian seas. The leadingedge of the trough develops quickly and trails southeast rapidly froma northern low pressure center. When this cold air reaches the BlackSea in winter, a local cyclone may be generated.
These two circulation types are the most effective for the formationof storms. The configuration of the pressure field is such that the highwind flow has the largest distance over the open sea to accelerate andto induce storm waves. In these cases, storms cover a large part of thesea. Both observations and modeling in previous studies, e.g., [21, 22,23] agree that the number of storm events in the Black Sea does notincrease by the end of the twentieth century and may even reduce.
The same tendency is seen in SWAN results (Fig. 5). Analysis of CT
frequency shows that the proportion of the two CTs is redistributed
slightly between the
periods
1961–1980
and 1981–2000, withthe frequency of CT
1 events becoming
higher than CT 2 in thelatter period.
Whencomparing
SLP fields of ECHAM5MPI/OM and NCEP/
Fig. 5. Relative (a) and absolute (b) frequency of storm days
NCAR for 1961–2000,
in the Black Sea with wave height H ≥ 4 m, circulation types
the threshold for theas in Fig. 4.
correlation coefficient:27

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environmentr ≥ 0.95 were chosen. Previous paper [39] showed that r ≥ 0.95 isenough for ECHAM5-MPI/OM and reanalysis results to have good
agreement in the number of days with wind speed of 15 m/s and more,which is considered to be the threshold for storm-wave developmentin the investigated seas.
To analyze possible changes in storm SLP frequency in the future,
we used ECHAM5 results from modeling the A2 SRES emission
scenario [15], the most negative variant of human impact to theclimate including high greenhouse gas emissions, non-effective landuse, fast population growth etc. SRES A2 scenario has the highest
temperature increase by the end of the 21st century, about 3.5° [11].
According to the ECHAM5-MPI/OM results, projected mean global
temperature will increase by about 1.5°C by 2050 and by 4°C by 2100
relative to 1980–1999 [11].
Storm activity in the Black Sea will be strongly reduced by the
middle of the 21st century, and so the tendency of the previous
decades will continue: number of storm days will reduce from 250350 cases for CT1 before 2000 to 200 in 2045-2064 and from 100-150
cases to less than 50 for CT2. According to an IPCC report [11], themultimodel ensemble mean SLP projection shows SLP increase over
the Mediterranean Sea and Black Sea, especially between December
and February. This may explain why storm activity is projected to
weaken in our results. The same reduction of storm activity is expected
for the Caspian Sea due to pressure increase over its surroundings.
Conclusion
This paper shows the results of a hindcast study of wind waves on theBlack, Baltic, Caspian and White seas based on a continuous numericalcalculation for the period between 1949 and 2011. The large timespan of this period makes it possible to obtain reliable statistical andextreme parameters of wind waves, as well as to assess the evolutionof the wave climate. A storm events calendar was prepared basedon numerical experiments with the wave model SWAN and only
storms with a significant wave height of 4 m or greater were chosen.
Additionally, an assessment of interannual variability of storms on theBaltic, Black, Caspian and White seas was carried out. It was shown28

Plenary Reportsthat by the end of the 20th century the storm activity in the Baltic
Sea had increased, while Black and Caspian seas revealed negative
trend and the White Sea absence of any trend. It was also found thatthe frequency of circulation types was redistributed in 1981–2000
compared to 1961–1980. This result provides an important foundation
for the statistical climate projection of storm activity in future research.
The results reported in this paper could be further appliedin research with the use of other data sets and methods such as
meteorological hindcasts having a finer temporal and/or spatial
resolution, unstructured numerical grids and coupled models
permitting the calculation of both waves and hydrodynamic
parameters. The latter are expected to be especially useful forstudies of the characteristics in coastal areas, bays and straits.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

References
Arkhipkin V., Dobroliubov S., Long-term variability of extreme
waves in the Caspian, Black, Azov and Baltic Seas, GeophysicalResearch Abstracts, Austria, Vienna, 2013, vol. 15, EGU2013-7484.
Arkhipkin V.S., Gippius F.N., Koltermann K.P., Surkova G.V.,
Wind waves in the Black Sea: results of a hindcast study, Natural
Hazards and Earth System Science, 2014, 14, 11, 2883–2897.
Bezopasnost v chrezvychajnyh situatsijah. Monitoring i
prognozirovanie opasnyh hydrologicheskih javlenij i processov[Safety in emergencies. Monitoring and forecasting of dangeroushydrological phenomena and processes. General requirements. State
standard.] GOST R 22.1.08-99. 1999 [in Russian].
Booij, N., R. C. Ris, and L. H. Holthuijsen: A thirdgeneration
wave model for coastal regions. 1. Model description and validation,
J. Geophys. Res. 104, 1999, 7649-7666.
Cassou C., Euro-Atlantic regimes and their teleconnections.
Proceedings: ECMWF Seminar on Predictability in the Europeanand Atlantic regions, 6–9 September 2010, 1-14, 2010.
Demuzere M., Werner M., van Lipziga N. P. M., Roecknerc
E., An analysis of present and future ECHAM5 pressure fields using
a classification of circulation patterns, Int. J. Climatol. 29, 2009,
17961810.
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7.

Grigorieva V., Gulev S. and K.P. Koltermann: Extreme waves
in the marginal Russian seas: uncertainty of estimation and climate
variability, Geography, Environment, Sustainability, 2011, 4 (2), 2229.
8. Gulev, S. K., and Grigorieva, V. (2006): Variability of the winterwind waves and swell in the North Atlantic and North Pacific as
revealed by the voluntary observing ship data. Journal of Climate, 19,5667–5685.
9. Hartigan, J. A., Wong, M. A., Algorithm 136. A k-means clustering
algorithm. Applied Statistics, 1978, 28, 100.
10.	Huth R., Beck C., Philipp A, Demuzere M., Ustrnul Z.,
Cahynov M.’Kysel’y J., Tveito O. E. Classifications of AtmosphericCirculation Patterns Recent Advances and Applications, Trends andDirections in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146, 2008, 105152. doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.019.
11. IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013:
The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working GroupI to theFifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change [Stocker T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen,
J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)].
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New
York, NY, USA.
12. Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven,D., Gandin, L., I redell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J.,
Zhu, Y., Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki,W., Higgins, W., Janowiak, J., Mo, K. C., Ropelewski, C.,
Wang, J., Jenne, R., and Joseph, D.: The NCEP/NCAR 40-year
Reanalysis Project, B. Am. Meteorol Soc, 77, 437–471, 1996.
13. Matulla, C., Schöner, W., Alexandersson, H., von Storch, H.,
and Wang, X. L.: European storminess: late nineteenth century topresent, Clim. Dynam., 31, 125–130, doi:10.1007/s00382-0070333-y,
2008.
14. Meehl G. A., Covey C., Delworth T., Latif M., McAvaney B.,
Mitchell J. F. B., Stouffer R. J., Taylor K. E., The WCPR CMIP3
multimodel Dataset: a new era in climate change research, Bull. Amer.
Met. Soc. 88, 2007, 1383-1394, doi:10/1175/BAMS-88-9-1383.
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15.	Nakicenovic N., Swart R. (Eds)., Special Report on Emissions
Scenarios: A special report of Working Group III of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University
Press, 2000, 599 p.
16. Preisendorfer R.W., Principal Component Analysis in Meteorology
and Oceanography, Elsevier, 1988, 425 p.
17. Roeckner E., Bauml G., Bonaventura L.,Brokopf R., Esch M.,
Giorgetta M., Hagemann S., Kirchner I., Kornblueh L., ManziniE., Rhodin A., Schlese U., Schulzweida U., Tompkins A., The
atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5. Report No. 349. MaxPlanck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, November 2003, 140 p.
18. Santos J. A., Corte-Real J., Leite S.M., Weather regimes andtheir connection to the winter rainfall in Portugal, Int. J. Climatol.
25, 2005, 33–50.
19. Surkova G. V., Kislov A. V., Koltermann P. K., Large-scaleatmospheric circulation and extreme wind events during the Black sea
storms. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 2012, vol. 14, EGU2012-4751.
20. Surkova G.V., Arkhipkin V.S., Kislov A.V., Atmosphericcirculation and storm events in the Black Sea and Caspian Sea,Central
European Journal of Geosciences, 2013, V 5, No 4, pp. 548–559.
21. Terziev F. S. (Ed.) Gidrometeorologia I gidrokhimia morey SSSR
[Hydrometeorology and hydrochemistry of the seas in the USSR].
Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1991, Vol.4-1, Chernoe more [Black Sea],
Gidrometeorologicheskie uslovia [Hydrometeorological conditions],
430 p. [in Russian].
22. Terziev F. S. (Ed.) Gidrometeorologia I gidrokhimia morey SSSR
[Hydrometeorology and hydrochemistry of the seas in the USSR].
Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 1992, Vol.6-1, Kaspijskoe more
[Caspian Sea], Gidrometeorologicheskie uslovia [Hydrometeorologicalconditions], 360 p. [in Russian].
23. Valchev N. N., Trifonova E. V., Andreeva N. K., Past and recent
trends in the western Black Sea storminess, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst.
Sci. 12, 2012, 961-977, doi:10.5194/nhess-12-961-2012.

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Shinji SATO
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo

Flooding risk management
in urbanized coastal zone

Flooding of coastal cities by tsunami
and storm surge

Fig. 1. Numerical computation of the 2011 Tohoku
Tsunami (28 minutes after the earthquake)32

In the last decade, coastalzone experienced devastating damage due tohistoric mega-tsunami,e.g. 2004 Indian Ocean
Tsunami and 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, and giant
storm surge, e.g. 2015
Hurricane Katrina and2013 Typhoon Haiyan.
Since most mega-cities
are located on the coast,
it is important for human community to develop a better relationship with hazardous sea
nature. Fig. 1 represents
the scale of the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami simulatedon the basis of numericalcomputations. This article describes the state of
the art of the coastal disaster mitigation.

Plenary Reports

Protection by structure and damage
reduction by early evacuation
Disaster mitigation for tsunamis and storm surges is a major challenge faced by Japan, which has suffered many coastal disasters andwill continue to do so, when the country tries to enhance resilienceof its coastal areas where the country’s population and assets haveconcentrated. It is difficult to predict in detail how high tsunamis
will be because their height greatly depends not only on the magnitude and characteristics of earthquakes, but also on the geographyof the seabed or coast. Storm surge is better predicted comparedwith tsunami, but highly variable due to the track of typhoons andnearshore bathymetries. Tsunamis and storm surges happen lessfrequently than floods and storm waves, and compared to earthquakes, which cause damage almost instantly, it takes longer time
for tsunamis and storm surges to reach and affect the coast after
they develop off the coast.
Disaster mitigation for tsunami and storm surge has been implemented by combining structural (hard) countermeasures andnon-structural (soft) countermeasures. The structure-based countermeasures are represented by seawalls and breakwaters. The nonstructure-based countermeasures include relocation of residential
area to higher places, early warning, and evacuation. Estimating thescale of storm waves, storm surges, and tsunamis that will reachcoastal areas requires study on how waves develop in the spatial scaleof tens of kilometers. The Seacoast Law in Japan requests, therefore,that the Prefectural Governors work with the central government totake measures for coastal disaster prevention. For example, in Japanthe height and structure of seawalls, which are an example of structural measures, are determined by the Prefectural Governors in theirrole as coastal managers. Before these are determined, not only thehighest water elevation of tides and run-up of storm waves, but also
the design tsunami height and the storm surge level are taken into
consideration to determine the specifications of seawalls, so that seawalls will be high enough to prevent sea water that is as high as
the highest water elevation and design height from overflowing thewalls to the land.
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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

On the other hand, in order to consider what precautions should
be provided against other disasters, such as fire and earthquakes, it
is more practical to take account of conditions of nature and societythat are specific to local communities and districts; therefore, suchprecautions are considered at a smaller level, like cities, towns, andvillages, than that of coastal management by the prefecture, in accordance with the Basic Act on Disaster Control Measures, which is abasic law for provision of such precautions. The coastal disaster mitigation strategy is drawn up as part of local disaster prevention plans
which are arranged by the Mayors of cities, towns, or villages, and is
aimed at providing an evacuation program in the event of high waterlevel that cannot be blocked by seawalls. Even land areas protectedby seawalls cannot be perfectly protected, and buildings and houses
there will be flooded if high water level due to tsunamis and storm
surges overflow the seawalls into those areas. However, it often takessome time for such a high water level to reach the coast after anearthquake or a typhoon developed, so quick evacuation can savemore human lives. Non-structural measures aimed at disaster reduction to prevent loss of human lives and reduce damage to assets, andare different from structural measures, which are taken to prevent
inland flooding and are aimed at disaster prevention. To implement
disaster reduction based on quick and well-organized evacuation, it
is important for each resident in a community to maintain awareness of disaster prevention and for the residents of the community
to help each other. It is important, therefore, to understand the roleand limitations of seawalls, which are recognized to be public support, and translate the concept of community support and individual
support into detailed action plans. It was also pointed out even before the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake how important public support, community support, and individual support were, because theexperiences of the 1993 Okushiri Tsunami, the 2004 Indian Ocean
Tsunami, the 2005 Storm Surge due to Hurricane Katrina, etc. had
indicated that tsunamis and storm surges caused by these hazards
were too large to be prevented by seawalls alone.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram and represents a concept of a comprehensive disaster prevention program that combines structural and34

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non-structural measures.
The horizontal axis represents the scale (height)of a tsunami (or a storm
surge, but hereafter explained only for tsunami),
while the extent of damage is represented in thenegative direction on thevertical axes. Because theextent of damage caused
by a tsunami accelerates Fig. 2. Conceptual diagram of tsunami disaster mitigation
as the tsunami becomes composed of structural and non-structural measureshigher, the damage whenserious as the tsunami develops high waves, and the extent of thedamage is represented by an upward convex curve. To take structural
measures that provide constructions like seawalls, the scale of thetsunami to be blocked by the measures is determined based on datathat includes the record of the largest tsunami, as shown in the figure,and examination of how the run-up of storm waves or storm surges
will behave. Then, constructions, such as seawalls that are designed
based on the previously mentioned information, will be set up along
the coast to prevent tsunamis from flooding the land.
Seawalls, however, are designed against an external force that is
not large enough to overflow the levee crown of the walls; the walls
cannot be expected to be effective against and safe from a tsunamithat is higher than they are. It is the philosophy of the comprehensive tsunami mitigation that, in the event that water flows over theseawalls and causes a flood, non-structural measures with a focus ona quick and smart evacuation should be taken to minimize the damage caused by the tsunami. Structural measures include constructing seawalls to prevent the land from being flooded, and these deserve to be called disaster prevention, while nonstructural measures
should be regarded as disaster mitigation because they are aimed atsaving more human lives and reducing the extent of damage whenurban areas are flooded.
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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Two level hazard for disaster mitigation
When the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami devastated many coastal communities, Town Fudai and other areas in northern Iwate Prefecture were
protected by seawalls as high as the tsunami, which successfully prevented the tsunami from flooding over the land. However, in northern Fukushima Prefecture and in many areas further north, the tsunami was several meters higher than the seawalls there and wrecked
them. Even in areas where the seawalls survived, it was difficult toconfirm clearly whether the seawalls reduced the damage of the tsunami. In contrast, in southern Fukushima Prefecture and areas further south, the overflow depth of the tsunami over the seawalls wasapproximately 1–5 m, and a clear relationship between how seriously
the seawalls were broken and how much damage was developed on
the land was observed in these areas. For example, some seawalls
along the Nakoso Coast in the south end of the Fukushima Prefecture were hit by a tsunami with approximately 1-m overflow depth,
but were not destroyed, resulting in minor damage to the land area.
Most low walls in another area a few hundred meters away that were
hit by the tsunami with an approximately 3-m overflow depth wereruined and could not prevent a large-scale flood. In addition, many
coastal areas of Minami-Soma City suffered large-scale flood damage, but the extent of the damage tended to be smaller in areas with alower percentage of totally destroyed seawalls; it was also confirmedby this fact that seawalls, if not totally broken, effectively reduced theamount of overflow.
In addition, the fact that the Tohoku Tsunami flooded some evacuation places led to a recognition of how important it is to set in a
detailed and scientific manner the scale of the tsunami allowed forto plan structural and non-structural measures. Although the tsunami, which was far larger than the set conditions, tore down manyseawalls, the walls that were not destroyed completely are reported
to have lessened the flood damage caused by the tsunami, as observed in the examples of Nakoso and Minami-Soma cities, and theeffectiveness and limitations of structural measures will be quantitatively explained soon by scientific analyses. Based on these findings, an idea is being introduced to set the scale of tsunamis in two
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levels, as shown in Fig. 3,
Level-1 tsunamis arethose that occur once inabout one hundred years,
and are used to design
structures like seawalls,
and Level-2 tsunamis arethose that occur less frequently, or once in one
thousand years, and areused to draw up evacuation plans. In addition, a Fig. 3. Conceptual diagram of tsunami disaster mitigation
tenacious structure with based on two level tsunami hazards
a “nebari” concept that is
also effective against tsunamis exceeding its design height is also
being considered. Every effort is being made to combine detailed,practical non-structural measures and resilient structural measures
to save human lives and reduce damage to assets.
Optimal combination of hard and soft countermeasures based on risk management
As described in the above, it has been decided to promote preparations against tsunamis, by setting the two tsunami levels basedon their frequency and by combining structural and nonstructural
measures. Seawalls are designed against Level-1 tsunamis, which
occur once in one hundred years or so. This means that only thefrequency of tsunamis is considered to decide the height of seawalls. This approach to setting the height of seawalls is reasonable
to some extent to secure a common extent of safety, when most
coastal low-lying areas are used as places of residence, as in thecase of Japan. The extent of safety in communities can be raisedby measures other than seawalls, and it is recommended to takeaccount of such conditions to design the height of seawalls. As oneof the ways to enhance safety against tsunamis, it is effective tochange the way lands are used, through relocation of communities
to uplands and regulation of the use of low-lying coastal areas, for37

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

example. Provision of education in disaster prevention and evacuation drills to more people will raise the rate of successful evacuation and lead to a reduction of casualties. It is important to have aframework to consider both conditions of nature comprehensively,
such as characteristics observed in the event of earthquakes andtsunamis, and social conditions that have an impact on the optimal
design height of seawalls.
A risk analysis is an effective means of examining such conditions
comprehensively. Fujima and Hiwatashi (2013) studied Town Toi in
Shizuoka Prefecture to assess the residual risk of the town and, basedon the assessment, proposed a method to determine the optimal heightof seawalls. The risk analysis performed to consider preparations
against tsunamis is to analyze the damage expected to be caused by,
as well as the incidence of, a virtual tsunami in the future, for example
in the next fifty years in an area forecasted to be flooded by the tsunami, and calculate the expected value D of the risk in the area.

Values H and p(H) represent the height of an approaching tsunami offshore and the probability of the tsunami as high as H reaching
the area, respectively. Values hc and d(H, hc), respectively, represent
the heights of seawalls and financially calculated amounts of thedamage expected to be caused by the tsunami. This function anticipates that the amount will be increased as the height of the tsunami
H becomes higher and will be decreased as the height of the seawalls
hc becomes higher. The above formula calculates the expected value,
which is an amount of the damage anticipated in the area over theperiod subject to study. The expected value of the damage is not normally zero in Japan, where its population and assets gather in flat,
low-lying coastal areas, because there is a finite probability that atsunami will overtop seawalls and affect the coastal communities;
seawalls do not free the country from a risk of flood caused by tsunamis. The purpose of various measures taken against tsunamis is,therefore, to reduce the residual risk.
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Fig. 4. Optimal seawall height determined by the risk analysis

Fig. 4 is a graph in which heights of seawalls hc and financial
costs/benefits are respectively plotted on the horizontal and verticalaxes, and gives an example of the residual risks and construction
costs. Residual risks will decrease and construction cost will increasein proportion to the height of seawalls. Since the sum of residual
risks and construction costs is the total social cost to be borne overthe period by the community, such a height of seawalls that minimizes the total cost will be the most reasonable height.
This approach to determining the height of seawalls analyzes not
only the incidence of tsunamis, but also the amount of damage that
depends on the amount of assets and house types in the community,
and is thought to be more rational than the current method, which
considers only the incidence of tsunamis to determine the height.
As indicated by Fig. 2 and 3, damage caused by tsunamis can be decreased not only by seawalls (structural measures) but also by nonstructural measures, such as relocation of communities to elevatedplaces and faster evacuation. If the amount of the residual risks thatcan be reduced by taking measures other than the construction ofseawalls is quantitatively evaluated, such other measures can be
implemented in addition to the construction of seawalls and canminimize the residual risks comprehensively. In this way, it will bepossible to determine an optimal combination of measures. For example, according to Fig. 4, building seawalls as high as hc and taking other additional measures will increase cost but further reduce
residual risks. If the effectiveness of the measures to take is allowed
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for and the height of seawalls are determined so that D+C will beminimized, it will be possible to reduce the height of seawalls andmitigate damage.
To analyze which measures to choose to have an optimal combination as explained above, it is necessary to sort out data on theincidence of tsunamis and other basic data of damage, including
breakage of seawalls, and changes in the way land is used over theperiod subject to study. Since conventional design of seawalls did
not consider how seawalls are broken by tsunamis flowing over thewalls and how effective the walls are in mitigating damage, there
are scarcely any such studies and analyzes available for reference. To
promote such measures that will save more people from tsunamis,
it is necessary to evaluate not only the ability of seawalls to withstand overtopping, but also to assess a combination of structural andnonstructural measures comprehensively from various perspectives,
including those of social equality, economy, and risk management,
and carry out the measures smoothly.
Reducing residual risks of tsunamis and improving resilience ofcoastal areas call for a preliminary disaster assessment program
aimed at encouraging a certain manner of land use and a comprehensive coastal management system that collectively deal withmeasures against tsunamis; our upcoming task is to interdisciplinarily discuss and study how to implement such a program andsystem.

1.

References
Fujima K, Hiwatashi Y.: New approach to specify the adequate
scale of facility against tsunami and the residual risk. Journal of
JSCE, A1, 2013; 69 (4): I_345–57 [in Japanese].

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Nina ALEKSEEVA
Department of World Physical Geography and Geoecology,
Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Experience of the global
environmental trends study
in the European Union andits application for Russia

INTRODUCTION
Leading international organizations and agencies regularly preparea series of outlooks and scenarios, considering the change of theenvironment, environmental management perspective, environmental
policy with different horizons of prediction. The OECD Environmental
Outlook to 2050: The Consequences of Inaction (2012) examines two
major scenarios towards 2050 under present trends of socioeconomic
developments: without new policies and “if we act” [1].
The European Environment Agency (EEA) analyzes global
megatrends relevant for the European environment with theforecasting horizon up to 2050. “A State of the Environment Report.
Assessment of Global Megatrends” is published every 5 years by EEA,
to assess the European environment’s state, trends and prospects in a
global context. The EEA reports clustered megatrends into 5 groups:social, economic, technological, environmental and political. The
experts pointed out that in the absence of response global megatrends
can violate the stability of Europe and the world but they also could
provide opportunities [2]. Among the environmental megatrends for
Europe in 2010 State of Environment Report the following trends
were mentioned: the decreasing stocks of natural resources, including
mineral and water; increasingly severe consequences of climatechange; increasing environmental pollution load; loss of biodiversity
are of the greatest importance.
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In 2015 an updated assessment of global megatrends for Europe[3] focused on the same issues presented in Report of 2010. The
latest report covers a broad range of topics, setting out trends thatare likely to influence and shape Europe’ future, and their possible
environmental implications. Europe has two main clusters of response
options to global megatrends: 1) shaping global change in ways thatmitigate and manage risks, and 2) adapting to global trends.
In 2015, the following 11 mega-trends of world development wereidentified as the most important for Europe [3]:1. Diverging global population trends;
2. Towards a more urban world;
3. Changing disease burdens and risks of pandemics;
4. Accelerating technological change;
5. Continued economic growth;
6. An increasingly multipolar world;
7. Intensified global competition for resources;
8. Growing pressures on ecosystems;
9. Increasingly severe consequences of climate change;
10. Increasing environmental pollution;
11. Diversifying approaches to governance.
The monitoring of global trends and their impact on Russia
previously was done under the title “Russia in the Surrounding
World” and published in 1998–2011 Yearbooks with the series thearticles on crucial environmental issues and policy, demography,socio-economic issues, environmental education, green economy, etc.
Under the global trend, we understand a modern, breakthrough,and actively developing phenomenon (or process) that can havea significant impact on the various sectors including state of theenvironment. The vision of global trends allows better respond to thechallenges of the future, to determine the strategic planning priorities,
including those in the field of environmental management and policy.
The objective of this study was to identify, analyze and rank
the impact of the global trends that can shape the state of Russian
environment in the medium and long term. The process resulted witha set of global trends (or “Grand Challenges”) that create windows ofopportunities and threats for Russia.
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Materials and methods
Based on the analysis of sectoral documents, strategies and scenariosof Russia [4–10], key world forecasts [11-14] and the other information
sources, global trends with an environmental focus were identified
for Russia.
The major methods for identification and analysis of global
trends for Russia were bases on the various foresight approaches:
bibliometric and patent analysis, in-depth interviews, expert panels,
focus-groups, literature reviews. The important statistical data wastaken from the “National State of Environment Reports” annually
prepared and published by the Ministry of Natural Resources andEnvironment of the Russian Federation [15].
The next step was the ranking of trends on their impact on
Russia. It was conducted on the basis of questionnaires of experts.
The questionnaire was sent to more than 150 experts from theleading scientific organizations in the field of environment andnature management, as well as to some universities. More than 70
responses were received. Among the experts who took part in thesurvey were employees of the Institute of Geography of the Russian
Academy of Sciences, the Institute of Ecology and Evolution named
after A.N. Severtsov, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State
University, Tver State University, Smolensk State University, State
University of Management, Technological Center of RusNano and anumber of other organizations. The revealed trends were ranked on
the basis of expert evaluation for a number of indicators:• The degree of influence on Russia: 1 — creates threats, 2 —creates opportunities;• The power of influence on Russia: 1 — weak, 2 — strong, 3 very strong;• Russia’s ability to influence the development of this trend: 0 —can not affect, 1 — limited, 2 — can significantly affect.
Results
A total of 36 trends relevant for Russia were identified (Table 1),
including 10 economic, 6 social, 3 geopolitical, 8 scientific andtechnological, 9 trends in the field of environmental change.
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Categories

Global Trendsof the trends
1.

Economic

1.

Green economic development and “green growth” in thedeveloped countries of the world
2.	Formation of a global market for alternative energy
sources
3.	Introduction of economic instruments for solving
environmental problems at the international level
4. Growth in global demand for food
5. Increasing global competition for mineral resources
6. The growth of oil and gas production on the shelf of the
Arctic Ocean, accelerated development of the Arctic
7.

Growth of oil production from oil sands and oil shales

8. Reducing the availability of fresh water and increasing
competition for water in transboundary river basins
9.	Expansion of environmental protection activities
10.	Increased costs of adaptation to climate change
2.

Social

11. Growing urbanization and the increase in the proportionof urb an population
12.	Increase in morbidity and mortality from environmental
pollution
13. The spread of diseases caused by climate change to newareas
14. Growth of the population living in water scarcity
conditions
15. Growth of population migration due to environmental
causes and climate change
16. Growing ecological awareness of the society

3.

Geo-political

17. “Redistribution of the Arctic” due to resources accessibility(raw materials, transport, environment-forming, etc.)
18.	Fostering interaction between environmental scienceand politics
19.	Multilateral cooperation on sustainable development
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4.

In the field

20.	Development of alternative energyof science andtechnologies,including for the biofuel production

technology

21.	Development of technologies for theenvironmentally safe disposal of waste and detoxicationof toxicants
22.	Development of technologies for recycling and reuse ofwastewater
23.	Effective technologies for assessing the state of
ecosystems (landscapes) and the marine environment for
reducing environmental risks
24. The spread of environmentally friendly transport
25.	Development of the materials with new properties(including energy-saving ones) and technologies of green
construction
26.	New technologies for development of non-traditionaland hard-to-recover hydrocarbon resources
27.	Development of geo-engineering technologies (forclimate management, carbon capture and storage)

5.

Environmental 28. Climate change, including the increase in theintensity of hazardous and extreme hydrometeorologic
processes
29.	Increase in the intensity of unfavorable geologicalgeomorphological, erosion-channel processes and processes
in the cryosphere
30.	Distribution of new pollutants in the environment,
including micro- and nanoparticles
31. Reduction of biodiversity due to climate and land usechange32.	Outbreaks of abundance and invasion of alien species
33.	Sustainable reduction of primary (virgin) forest areas
34.	Increase of protected areas
35.	Overfishing and depletion of fish stocks in the seas
36.	Increasing impact on coastal ecosystems

Table 1. Global trends that can shape the state of the environment of the RussianFederation Discussion

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About half of global trends (17 out of 36) create threats to
Russia’s environment. Among the most serious trends for Russia,
the largest number refers to environmental trends, one — togeopolitical trend (“redistribution of the Arctic” due to the accessto resources), four — to social trends (increased incidence due toenvironmental pollution; the spread of diseases caused by climatechange; the growth of migration due to environmental causes andclimate change; urbanization growth and the increase of urban
population) and three — to economic trends.
Threats create the following economic trends: the growthof oil production from oil sands and oil shale; the formation of a
global market for alternative energy carriers; increasing worldcompetition for mineral resources. It should be noted that in the“Strategy of economic security of the Russian Federation for theperiod until 2030”, the main challenges and threats also include “achange in the structure of the world demand for energy resources
and the structure of their consumption, the development of energysaving technologies and the reduction of material consumption,
the development of “green” technologies (paragraph 12, point 6)[9]. Approximately the same number of experts assessed the riskof threats and opportunities for the following trends: reduced
availability of fresh water and increased competition for water;
costs increase of adaptation to climate change.
Among the trends of economic development, creating
opportunities for Russia, were listed: greening the economy andgreen growth; growing global demand for food; introduction of
economic instruments for solving environmental problems at theinternational level; the growth of oil and gas production on the shelfof the Arctic Ocean and the accelerated development of the Arctic;
expansion of environmental protection. The trend of ensuring
environmentally oriented growth of the economy and introductionof environmentally effective innovative technologies is declared asa strategic goal of Russia’s State policy until 2030 in the field ofenvironmental development [7].
The number of unresolved environmental problems in ourcountry was the reason for attribution of environmental trends to46

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the threats rather than to potential opportunities for Russia. This
result of the survey corresponds to the official position: for example,
the Strategy for the Economic Security of the Russian Federation
for the period up to 2030 (2017) refers to the significant impact offactors associated with global climate change, capable of causing
food and fresh water shortages, access to renewable resources,
including resources of the Arctic and Antarctic zones, the Arctic
Ocean water area (paragraph 10 “Challenges and threats to economic
security”) [9]. Of environmental trends, only one opportunities for
Russia, i.e. an increase of protected areas.
Expert assessments of the impact of global trends of scientificand technological development on Russia largely correspond to thepriorities of the national environmental policy. The experts stressed
the importance of developing technologies for the environmentallysafe disposal of waste and detoxication of toxicants; recycling andreuse of wastewater, and the creation of effective technologies forassessing the state of ecosystems (landscapes) and the marine
environment. The importance of the last trend is due to the need to
improve the effectiveness of environmental monitoring, forecastingof natural emergency situations, as well as responses to climatechange. These technologies can multiply improve the technicaland economic indicators of information and analytical support ofenvironmental protection and environmental safety.
Among global trends that can have the strongest effect on Russia
in the coming decades, there are the growth of oil and gas production
on the shelf and the development of the Arctic; depletion of strategic
mineral resources; “Redistribution of the Arctic” due to the access toresources; growing global demand for food; depletion of fish stocks inthe seas; reduction of primary forest areas; climate change, etc.
Russia can influence the implementation of trends from all 5 groups,
while a significant and limited impact can be traced only for 15 trends.
To the smallest degree, Russia can influence the following trends:
distribution of materials with new properties (including energy-savingones) and technologies of green construction; greening the economy
and “green growth”; development of alternative (ecologically efficient)energy technologies, including biofuel production; development of47

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technologies for recycling and reuse of wastewater; the spread ofenvironmentally friendly transport; development of geo-engineering
technologies. Most of them belong to the category of scientific andtechnological trends, which, unfortunately, reflects a low scientificreserve in these areas. It is obvious that Russia needs to regularly
monitor environmental development in the framework of global trends(as it is done in the European Union), to identify progress or deteriorationof the situation by some parameters to adjust its environmental policy.
Conclusion
Studies of the global trends is particularly important forenvironmental management, which differs from the other sectors
because of the long planning horizons, multidisciplinary decisions,inability to obtain quick and clear economic results.
Expert analysis of global trends allowed to identify the mainthreats and opportunities for environmental development of Russia.
It serves as the basis for determining the priority thematic areasof applied research, identify promising directions in the field ofenvironmental management and safety, contributing to the solutionof key issues and responses to the challenges.

•
•

1.
2.

Prospective directions of research may include:
long-term, global, and strategic risk assessment of global
trends with special reference to Russia’s environment;
development on the basis of foresight methods a list of specificactions to be taken in the short and medium term to achieve
a “desirable future” in the field of environment and policy processes in accordance with the threats and opportunities that
Russia has.
References
OECD Environment Outlook 2050. The Consequences of inaction. OECD Publishing. 2012.
The European Environment — State and Outlook 2015: Assessment of Global Megatrends. European Environment Agency.
Copenhagen. 2011.
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3.

4.

5.
6.

7.

8.
9.

10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.

The European Environment — State and Outlook 2015: Assessment of Global Megatrends. European Environment Agency.
Copenhagen. 2015.
Fundamentals of the state policy of the Russian Federationin the Arctic for the period until 2020 and beyond. Moscow.
2008 [in Russian].
Energy Strategy of Russia until 2030. Moscow, 2009 [inRussian]).
Assessment of climate change in the territory of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 and further prospect. Moscow, 2011 [in Russian].
Basics of state policy in the field of environmental development of the Russian Federation for the period until 2030.
Approved by the President of the Russian Federation on April 30,
2012. Moscow, 2012 [in Russian].
Forecast of scientific and technological development of theRussian Federation until 2030. Moscow, 2013 [in Russian].
Strategy of economic security of the Russian Federation forthe period up to 2030. Approved by the Decree of the Presidentof the Russian Federation on May 13, 2017. Moscow. 2017 [in Russian].
Environmental safety strategy for the period until 2030
(2017) [in Russian].
21 issues for 21st century. UNEP, 2012.
Global Environment Outlook–5 (GEO 5). UNEP. 2012.
Global Environment Outlook–6 (GEO 6). UNEP. 2015.
UNEP Frontiers 2016 Report. Emerging Issues of Environmental Concern. UNEP. 2016.
On the state and on the protection of the environment in
the Russian Federation in 2016. State Report. Moscow. 2017 [inRussian].

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Satoshi WATANABE
Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo

Hydrological risks underclimate change

Studies for risk assessment of climatechange on hydrology
Climate change is one of the important issues for sustainable
environment. Especially, the impact on water is a serious issue.
Various studies have already conducted, and many results are
obtained. Fig. 1 illustrates the structure of studies in this field.
Observation is the base of hydrology and climatology. Not only the
filed observation, but also satellite observation give fundamental
information of our analysis. Also, the result of climate simulations

Fig. 1. The schematic figure about the structure of the study in the field of impact
assessment of climate change on water

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are important for us. As you may image, it is impossible to observe
all area in earth, developing a good model is a key issue. And, theadvantage of model is that it can give us the information about future.
We are using the knowledges obtained from these observation andclimate simulation studies as an input. Hydrological model is a main
tool to study global hydrology. Various models have been developed,
integrated water resource model considers the water withdrawal,
dam and environmental flow. River routine and flood model is a key
to assess the impact of climate change. We are using and sometimes
improving these models to project hydrological impact.
Field and satellite observation gives us fundamental information
about present hydrology. Based on these observed dataset, simulationsof climate and hydrology are conducted. Climate models simulate
historical and future climate. The output of these models are thebases of hydrological simulations for the assessment of climatechange. Temperature and Precipitation is most important variables
for the hydrological simulations. In addition to these variables,
other variables are required in some hydrological models (e.g. windspeed, humidity, air pressure, radiations etc.). The hydrologicalsimulation is composed of land-surface scheme and river routing
scheme. The most important output of land-surface process for river
routing scheme is runoff. River discharge is simulated by integrating
runoff, the accuracy of runoff estimation is therefore so important.
However, runoff is not able to observe directly. The accuracy of landsurface and river routing scheme is validated by the observationsof river discharge. To project future hydrology appropriately, theavailability of observation dataset of river discharge is an essential
matter. Recently, due to the increasing interest in climate change,
the number of developing models are increasing all over the world.
Because the aim of the development in each model is not consistent,
the increment of models can contribute to understand climate change
and its impact on hydrology. The increment of models arises anotherissue about the spread of projection derived from the difference ofmodels. It is significant to study about the difference among models.
It is necessary to explain about the difference among models anddevelop a method to evaluate models.
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The uncertainty in the future projectionsof hydrology
Uncertainty is a key issue to project a future appropriately. The
uncertainty of future projection is derived from various factors. Here,we consider about the spread of projection as a source of uncertainty.
Fig. 2 illustrates the combination of sources of the spread in futurehydrological projections. The Global Climate Models (GCM, this issometimes referred as General Circulation Model) project a futureclimate based on the emission scenarios and ensemble settings. The
emission scenarios define the level of climate change and ensemble isthe simulation of which the initial condition or parameter is slightly
changed.
The studies which consider the spread of projection derived
from the combination of GCM, emission scenario and ensemble
runs have already existed in the field of climate. However, the

GCM

Emission
Scenario
RCP8.5
RCP6.0
RCP4.5
RCP8.5

MIROC5
MRI-CGCM
MPI...

Ensembleruns
r1i1p1r2i1p1
r1i1p2...

Biascorrection
Piana et al.
2010
Li et al. 2010
Watanabeet.al 2012

Fig. 2. The combination of factors for the spread in future hydrological projections

difference of bias correction method is significant in the fieldof hydrological projection. Bias correction of GCM outputs isnecessary for hydrological simulation, and it has been mentioned
in previous studies that the impact of bias correction on the
result is significant. The impact of bias on future projections is
not negligible, particularly for processes related to precipitation.
Bias correction is performed frequently in assessment studies,and the development and comparison of bias correction methods
has been the subject of many previous studies. Therefore it shouldbe necessary to consider the spread of projection including thedifference of bias correction
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The development of runoff bias correction
methodThe projection of future runoff is important for assessing the impact ofclimate change on hydrology. The risk assessment of flood and drought
etc. has been conducted based on runoff projections using hydrologicalimpact models. The improvement of runoff projections can contribute tomore appropriate assessments of river environments. Future projections
are based on the output of GCM, and there are two approaches to theprocedure used to assess the impact of runoff. In the first approach,runoffs projected by GCMs are used directly. In the second approach,runoffs simulated by land surface process models using climate forcing
projected by GCMs are used for the assessment. In general, the outputs
from GCMs need to be downscaled since the spatial resolution required
for runoff assessment is finer than that of GCMs projections. Thus, inmost assessment studies, land surface process simulations with finer
spatial scale are conducted using downscaled climate forcing data
projected by GCMs to obtain runoff projections rather than obtaining
runoff projections from GCMs directly.
The procedures for correcting biases in GCM simulations (biascorrection) are important. The impact of bias on future projections
is not negligible, particularly for processes related to precipitation.
Bias correction is performed frequently in assessment studies, andthe development and comparison of bias correction methods has been
the subject of many previous studies. Bias-correction methods for
precipitation can also be applied to runoff. However, it should be notedthat there are no observation datasets for runoff that can be used asa supervised dataset for bias correction. Thus, simulated runoff using
a reanalysis dataset employed in a previous study was used. While
many bias-correction methods have been proposed, bias-correction
methods have not been applied to runoff correction. Despite the manystudies conducted to investigate bias correction of climate variables,
no method that is applicable to any assessment has been identified.
The selection of method that is good for apply to runoff bias correction.
One of the criteria used to classify bias-correction methods iswhether a method adopts a trend-preserving assumption wherein
the signal of changes in GCMs output from an historical to a future
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period are preserved before and after bias correction. The trendpreserving assumption is reasonable for bias correction and has beenused in previous studies because it is preferable to maintain the trend
projected by GCMs rather than to change trends based on comparisons
between GCM output and observation data during the typically limited
period for which observation data are available. In addition, a twopass assumption, i.e., that monthly variation in GCMs data is corrected
and then daily variation is corrected using the corrected monthly
variation, is adopted for the runoff bias correction. The advantageof this assumption process is that the trend of monthly variation
obtained from GCMs outputs is not changed after the daily variation iscorrected, while methods that correct daily variation directly generally
change monthly variation after bias correction. For runoff in particular
as well as other variables, the trend of future change in monthly scale
projected by GCMs is more reliable than that in daily scale because, inmany studies, the validation of GCMs is primarily focused on monthly
scale, and reproducibility of outputs in monthly scale is more reliable
than in daily scale. The efficiency of this strategy has been discussed.
The validation of runoff bias correction indicates the simple
correction of monthly mean and coefficient of covariance cansignificantly reduce the bias of the GCM, and that the difference of
methods is not negligible in the future projections. When methods
are compared, results for bias-corrected runoff in a future period canbe significantly different because the efficiency of bias-correction
methods in an historical period is essentially the same. In particular,
projections tend to have large differences if GCM outputs havesignificantly larger values than the reference data.
Climate change impact on tourism
The impact of climate change affects various filed. Tourism is afield which may suffer some impact. Here, we consider the impact ofclimate change on tourism from the view of hydro-climate filed. Oneof the major impacts is the change of resources. Tourism resources,
for example, tourism resources such as coral leaf or show, will change
under global warming, and these changes affect tourism directly.
Besides, resources to maintain tourism, for example, water resources
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will also change. These are indirectly affect tourism. In addition to
the change of resources, the change of weather is also a significant
factor. As expected, most of the tourist prefer the fine weather. And,previous survey indicated that the satisfaction level of tourist andweather are significantly correlated.
It is possible to project the change of tourist satisfaction from thechange of weather under climate change using climate projections. To
achieve this, a method to analyze the change which is important toconsider the characteristics of future weather from the future projection
data is required. One of the possible method is to estimate the changeof fine day defined by cloud cover and precipitation. If the cloud cover,
the ratio of the area covered by cloud (the value is 0 to 1), more than0.9, it is referred to as cloud day. And if the rain is more than 0.5 mm
per day, it is referred to rain day. Fig. 3 shows the future change in

Fig. 2. The change of cloud and precipitation days. Vertical axis indicate the ratio ofchange. That is there is no change if the ratio is 0 (which is indicated by red dottedline). Each sign shows the result of each GCM. The error bar indicates the spread of
projection.

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Yaeyama islands, one of the tourist destinations in Okinawa, Japan,
consists of several small islands located in the southwest part of Japan.
The results indicate the increase of fine day in winter and decrease inearly summer. These changes may affect the impact on the tourism inYaeyama islands. A strategy to deal with these changes will be needed.
The study introduced above is an example that the climate
projection is applied to various assessment fields. The probabilistic
approach, used in the example above, enables simple assessments
for issues associated with climate change. The trends in change are
evaluated without considering the detailed relationship between
climate and a target of assessment. This result can be useful for the
impact assessment of climate change. The example of applicationshows that the developed method can effectively project the future
main changes and uncertainty for the target of assessment considering
the spread of projection derived from ensemble simulations.
Towards better understanding ofhydrological risks under climate change
Studies which support the basis of risk estimation are explained
above. Based on the observation and model development, the study for
application is utilized appropriately. Because of the increasing interest
to the climate change and its impact, the information about future
projection has been increasing drastically. It is necessary to makemore effort to the theory and practice for massive information about
future projection. Since using all data is unrealistic, the importanceof process to evaluate and select data will be very important in theera of the explosion of projection dataset. Some studies use theknowledge obtained in the filed machine learning, such approach isnecessary for the assessment. Meanwhile, the basic information suchas filed observation and satellite information, which needs long-term
to obtain some scientific results, also is important continuously. Even
though a good technology to analyze the information are obtained,
the application of the information is basically depends on the data
availability. Since the most important data is observation data, theeffort for the observation should be continued. The collaboration
between the researchers across fields seems to be more important.
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Session 2“Technologies to understand risks”

W. TAKEUCHI1, S. DARMAWAN1;2, R. SHOFIYATI3,
M.V. KHIEM4, K.S. OO5, U. PIMPLE6 and S. HENG7
1
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan,
2Center for Remote Sensing, Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB),
Indonesia, 3Indonesian Center for Agricultural Land Resources
Research and Development (ICALRD), Indonesia, 4Institute ofMeteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN), Vietnam,
5
Myanmar Geospatial and Resource Program (MGRP), Myanmar
Peace Center (MPC), Myanmar, 6King Mongkut’s University ofTechnology (KMUTT), Thailand, 7Mekong River Commission(MRC), Cambodia

Geo-information technology
for drought monitoringand early warning system
in Asia1	INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of this research
In Asian countries, rice is the main staple food and the stabilityof the rice sector that is the largest employer in the agricultural
economy is very important. However, it is widely known that riceproduction in South-east Asia is strongly influenced by annual andinter-annual changes in precipitation caused by El Nino Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) and the Austral-Asia monsoon. Under El Nino,
which is the warm phase of ENSO, South-east Asian countries have
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experienced a delay in the monsoon onset, a reduction of rainfall
and the following severe drought season, these natural phenomena
have a great influence on rice yields (Shofiyati, 2014). Statisticallyspeaking, in Indonesia, historical data say that a 30-day delay inthe monsoon onset and droughts in the planting season causes riceproduction on Java and Bali to fall by 1.12 million tons on average for
the January-April harvest season alone (Rosamond, 2009). This fact
implies that droughts, mainly in the planting season, are related torice production.
Generally, droughts do heavy damage to the overall economyof the countries concerned. For example, from 1997 to 1998 severe
droughts were caused in Southeast Asia and Australia by the climate
anomaly of strong EL Ni-no, they led to not only a sharp reductionof agricultural produce but also large forest fires. As a result, theamount of damage of the whole world reached thirty four billion
dollars (Hosoya, 2011). To cite another example, drought affectedlarge areas of Thailand and Cambodia in 2004, even though total
annual rainfall was close to the long-term average. Almost no rain
fell in the last three months of the year, a period that is critical forrain-fed rice, resulting in a 30% fall in farm output (IWMI, 2012). To
make matters worse, droughts ’impacts on rice cropping are getting
more and more serious from year to year because of the influenceof intensifying climate anomalies like El Ni-no and La Nina. For
the reasons above, it is longed very much to develop a method todetect a drought and evaluate its impact on rice yield in advancefor mitigating the influence of droughts and formulating appropriate
agricultural investment policy (Jonai, 2012).
The definitions are categorized in terms of four basic approaches
to measuring drought: meteorological, hydrological, agricultural,and socioeconomic (Wilhite, 1985). The first three approaches deal
with ways to measure drought as a physical phenomenon. The lastdeals with drought in terms of supply and demand, tracking theeffects of water shortfall as it ripples through socioeconomic systems.
Meteorological drought is defined usually on the basis of the degreeof dryness (in comparison to some“ normal ”or average amount) andthe duration of the dry period. Definitions of meteorological drought
58

Plenary Reports

must be considered as region specific since the atmospheric conditions
that result in deficiencies of precipitation are highly variable fromregion to region.
In this sense, it is indispensable to devise a method to detect adrought and evaluate its impact on rice yield in advance. This study
aims to build a rice crop monitoring system that provides the drynessof the paddy field and rice growth conditions in quasi-real time bydeveloping vegetation and agricultural climate indices. Furthermore,this research also intends to estimate near-future rice production at
sub-provincial level by utilizing the indices with experiential andtheoretical prediction model. This method is expected to contributeto a regional agricultural planning policy for an investment in
irrigation infrastructure.
1.2	Objective of this research
The objective of this research is to develop satellite-based droughtmonitoring warning system for croplands in Asian countries. Firstof all, we search paddy fields by visual observation of satellite
images for sub-provinces in Asian countries. Secondly, three typesof vegetation and agricultural climate indices are developed todetect climatic drought by combining rainfall and land surface
temperature retrievals, and monitor rice growth conditions from abunch of satellite observations. Thirdly, with that monitoring data,
the rice-planting patterns are analyzed at provincial level, especially
focusing on the number of rice cropping in a certain year. After
that, the performance of vegetation and agricultural climate will be
investigated as compared with rice crop yield at the sub-province
spatial scale, and finally it is possible to estimate rice production foreach region with experiential forecasting model made by means ofstatistical analysis.
2	METHODOLOGY
2.1	Data used in this study and area of interest
Fig. 1 shows a framework of meteorological drought monitoring in
Asia. Five types of data are prepared including; (a) AMSR-E VV andHH polarization data in 23.8 and 36.5GHz to compute land surface
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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Fig. 1. Flowchart of a framework of meteorological drought monitoring in Asiain Asia

water coverage (LSWC) (Takeuchi, 2009), (b) MODIS normalized
vegetation index (NDVI) 16 days composite product (MOD13A2) andleaf area index (LAI) 16 days composite (MOD15A2) to vegetation
phenology of crop plants, (c) MTSAT IR1 and IR2 for land surface
temperature retrieval (Oyoshi, 2010), (d) Global Satellite Mapof Precipitation (GSMaP) and (e) crop yield statistics in ASEAN
countries (AFSYS).
This study is mainly targeting the Asian countries which occupy
95% of strong on rice cropping in the world. Actually, the large
irrigated areas around the Southeast Asian big rivers including
Mekong is called as “rice bowls” of the region. In 2005 they produced
half of the region’s production and around 8% of the global crop,
though they constitute only 10% of the total land area. Moreover, mostof the agricultural lands in tropical Asian countries are dominated byrain-fed system, which greatly have a close relationship to the timingof monsoon onset and precipitation in the main plantation season.
IWMI report in 2010 also said that around 75% of crops are yieldedfrom rain-fed agriculture. For the reasons above, these areas are very
1

WebGMS - MTSAT/GMS (HIMAWARI) data processing on WWW http://webgms.iis.u-2

Global Satellite Map of Precipitation (GSMaP) http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/GSMaP crest/3

Crop yield statistics in ASEAN countries (AFSYS) http://www.afsisnc.org/

tokyo.ac.jp/

60Plenary Reports

suited for applying the rice crop monitoring method and expected tooffer the best performance to find out correlation of droughts withrice production.
2.2 Land surface water coverage (LSWC)
Land surface water coverage (LSWC) indicates the quantity of watercontent on land surface (Takeuchi, 2009). LSWC is calculated byintegrating normalized difference water index (NDWI) and normalized
difference frequency index (NDFI). NDWI is a satellite-derived index
from the visible (VIS) and Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) channels
derived from Moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer(Takeuchi, 2005), and it is sensitive to vegetation water content
and open water. NDWI can monitor flood patterns at finer spatial
resolution than AMSR-E at the expense of cloud contamination. On
the other hand, LSWC is derived from the brightness temperature ofvertical and horizontal polarization at 18.7, 23.8 and 36.5GHz. It isless affected by atmospheric conditions and not dependent on the soil
temperature. LSWC provides a sensitive indicator of the presence of
surface water and it has a good capability to distinguish the water
surface and land surface.
2.3. Normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and leaf
area index (LAI)
Monitoring the distribution and changes of Leaf Area Index (LAI)
is important for assessing growth and vigor of veg-etation on
the planet along with Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI). It isfundamentally important as a parameter in land-surface processes
and parameterizations in climate models. This variable represents
the amount of leaf material in ecosystems and controls the links
between biosphere and atmosphere through various processes
such as photosynthesis, respiration, transpiration and raininterception. LAI is one of the primary measures used in remotesensing and process-based models to characterize plant canopies.
LA1 estimates are used for measuring the leaf reflective surface
within a canopy. Until now excellent measurements of LA1 havebeen made for small-stature vegetation such as agricultural crops
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and plantations. In this study, we use this index for monitoring
rice growth conditions.
2.4	Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation(GSMaP)
The research project “The Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation(GSMaP)”started in 2002, which was sponsored by Japan Science andTechnology Corporation. The high- precision and high-resolution
global rainfall data are the most fundamental for the study of the
global water cycle and water resources. The global rainfall rates
with the uniform accuracy cannot be observed by any method otherthan the satellite remote sensing (Okamoto, 2005). At present,
several satellites with the microwave radiometers, such as TRMM,
Aqua, DMSP-F13, F14, and F15 are in operation. GPM project is a
future plan of rainfall measurement with the core satellite loading
dual frequency precipitation radars, accompanied by about eightcompanion satellites that also mount the microwave radiometers.
Microwave radiometer data are expected to be the central data for
producing the global maps of rainfall rates for the reason that they
are used for the observation from satellite more frequently and havethe wider observation swath width.
2.5	Crop calendar and intensity mappingFirst of all, we search paddy fields by visual observation of satellite
photographs for 200 provinces each in Asian countries. Secondly,
three types of vegetation and agricultural climate indices aredeveloped to detect climatic drought by combining rainfall and land
surface temperature retrievals, and monitor rice growth conditions
from a bunch of satellite observations. At last, with that monitoring
data, the rice-planting patterns can be analyzed at provincial level,
especially focusing on the number of rice cropping in a certain year
(Jonai, 2012).
2.6 Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI)
The Keetch-Byram drought index (KBDI) is a continuous reference
scale for estimating the dryness of the soil and duff layers. The index
62Plenary Reports

increases for each day without rain (the amount of increase depends
on the daily high temperature) and decreases when it rains. The
scale ranges from 0 (no moisture deficit) to 800. The range of theindex is determined by assuming that there is 8 inches of moisture
in a saturated soil that is readily available to the vegetation (Keetch,
1968). KBDI is world widely used for drought monitoring for national
weather forecast and a wild fire prevention. Our challenging in thisstudy is to apply this index to meteorological drought monitoring incroplands.
3	RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
3.1	Crop calendar and intensity mapping
Fig. 2 shows a cropping pattern analysis using LAI and LSWC. A
peak value of LAI followed by LSWC is identified as a single croppingin (a) and two peak values of those in the same manner is identified
as a double cropping in (b).the result of index calculation, especiallyfor two of 200 provinces. Looking at the result of Irrawaddy, it can beobserved that LAI approaches the peak after LSWC increased rapidly.
This fact implies that after water content on land surface gets larger
and deeper some vegetation grow. This is exactly what single-season
cropping is conducted at Irrawaddy in 2011. On the other hand, in
200

0.2

50

0

0

LAI (x50)

0

30

60

90

120 150 180 210 240 270 300

330 360

150

0.6
100

0.4

50

0.2

0

0
0

30

60

90

120 150 180 210 240 270 300

day

330 360

day(a) Single cropping pattern in Irrawady river rice paddy in Myanmar.
(b) Double cropping pattern in Red river rice paddy in Vietnam.
Fig. 2. Cropping pattern analysis using LAI and LSWC. A peak value of LAI followed by
LSWC is identified as a single cropping in (a) and two peak values of those in the samemanner is identified as a double cropping in (b).

63

LSWC (in percent)

100

0.4

LSWC (in percent)

150

0.6

200

1
0.8

LAI (x50)

1
0.8

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Fig. 3. Cropping intensity map in Asia Pacific region. The number of crops in 5 years
from 2006 to 2010 are presented. The brightest color indicates triple cropping, brighter
color double cropping and dark color single cropping respectively.

the graph of Red river, LAI peaks twice after the sharp increases of
LSWC. Based on this result, it turns out that double-season cropping
dominates in Red river.
Fig. 3 shows a crop-ping intensity map in Asia Pacific region.
The number of crops in 5 years from 2006 to 2010 are presented.
The brightest color indicates triple cropping, brighter color double
cropping and dark color single cropping respectively. In this figure,when, where, and how many times rice is cropped in paddy field isshown. We can see that rice paddy field is widely scattered in Asiaand heavily cropped at big river basin like the Indus, the Yangtze, andthe Mekong River. Besides, we can see that double or triple cropping
is done in Bangladesh and South China.

4

NOAA national weather forecast office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/drought/

5

USDA forest service http://www.fs.fed.us/r8/fireprevention/currentDanger.php

64Plenary Reports

Fig. 4. Time series of KBDI and rainfall in 2015, and KBDI average values in the last 10
years in Hwanghae Bukto, Korea DPR and Pathumthani, Thailand.

3.2	Drought affected area detection in 2015
Fig. 4 shows a time series of KBDI and rainfall in 2015, and KBDI
average values in the last 10 years in Hwanghae Bukto, Korea DPR
and Pathumthani, Thailand. In Korea DPR, KBDI values has been
almost double of ordinary year starting from January to middle ofJuly because of less rainfall and higher temperature anomaly. 10
years of average rainfall from April to June is 235 (mm) whereas only
74 (mm) of rainfall were observed in 2015 which accounts for 30%
of ordinary year. In middle of July, two typhoons attacked Korean’peninsula and caused 200 (mm) of rainfall just in two days, however,it seems to be too late for farmers to plant new rice because rice plantrequires 100 to 120 days to grow up and temperature goes down too
cold in October to November in Korea DPR. In Thailand, KBDI in2015 keep high value from January to May as usual, however, it keeps
around 400 to 500 until middle of July because of less rainfall andhigher temperature than ordinary year. Almost two month of delay
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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

in KBDI offset causes no sufficient water in croplands and farmers
can not start rice cultivation activities or start it two month delayedin this year. Since rainy season from May to October is a major rice
cropping season, rain-fed rice crops are very much effected by thisdrought anomaly.
Fig. 5 shows nation-wide drought anomaly map by KBDI in 2015
in Korea DPR and Thailand. According to this map, nearly 70% ofmajor cropping area in Korea DPR is affected by more than 100% of
drought anomaly in the last 20 years and 80% of major cropping area
in Thailand is suffering from more than 50% of drought anomaly inthe last 10 years. Detection of these area by geographical analysis
could reveal.
3.3	Drought early warning system and capacity
building program
Fig. 6 shows an web interface of satellite-based drought monitoring
and warning system in Asia (DMEWS). The derived information
is disseminated as a system for an application of space based
technology (SBT) in the implementation of the Core Agriculture
Support Program. The benefit of this system are to develop satellitebased drought monitoring and early warning system in Asian
counties using freely available data, and to develop capacity of policy
makers in those countries to apply the developed system in policy
making. A series of training program has been carried out in 2013
and 2014 to officers and researchers of ministry of agriculture andrelevant agencies in Greater Mekong Subregion countries including
Cambodia, China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia.
This system is running as fully operational and can be accessed at
http://webgms.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/DMEWS/.
4 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORKS
The graphs show that the dryness of paddy fields and rice growth
conditions can be monitored in quasi-real by developing vegetation
and agricultural climate indices. Moreover it is proved that riceplanting patterns can be analyzed at provincial level by the indices.
With this information, we can take an annual rice yield apart to that66

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Fig. 6. Web interface of satellite-based drought monitoring and warning system in Asia
(DMEWS) http:// wtlab.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/DMEW.

of each season. What to do next is to investigate the performance ofvegetation and agricultural climate as compared with the rice crop
yield. Actually, there are already some researches that investigate
a relationship between rice production and LAI. However LAI is
only a measured value, and LAI doesnt make it possible to evaluate
near future rice production under droughts. On the other hand, we
can estimate rice yields with drought index, KBDI, by inputting
forecasted precipitation into the model. Therefore, KBDI is essential
67The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

for evaluating droughts ’impact on rice yield in advance. In thisstudy we mainly focus on KBDI and will investigate the relationshipbetween the index and LAI, namely rice production.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This study is partially supported by Asian Development Bank TA6521 REG: Accelerating the Implementation of the Core Agriculture
Support Program — Drought Management in the GMS. The authors
would like to thank ADB for their support.

1.

2.
3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

References
Bouwer, L.M., Biggs, T.W. and Aerts, J.C.J.H., 2008. Estimatesof spatial variation in evaporation using satellite-derived surface
temperature and a water balance model. Hydrological Processes, 22,
670-682.
Dickinson, R.E. (1995). Land Processes in Climate Models. Remote
Sens. Environ., 51, 27-38.
Hill, M.J., and Donald, G.E. (2003). Estimating spatio-temporal
patterns of agricultural productivity in fragmented landscapes using AVHRR time series. Remote Sens. Environ., 84, 367-384.
Hosoya, Yuji and Wataru Takeuchi (2011). Performance ofdrought monitoring method towards yield estimation over rice cropping area in Java island, Indonesia. In: Proceed. 32nd ACRS, Taipei,
Taiwan.
Huke, R.E., and Huke, E.H. (1997). Rice area by type of culture:
South, Southeast, and East Asia, a revised and updated data base.
Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines, International Rice Research Institute.
IWMI research report (2012) Improving Water Use in Rainfed
Agriculture in the Greater Mekong Subregion (available at: http://
www.iwmi.cgiar.org/, accessed on Aug. 22, 2015)
Jonai, Hiromi and Wataru Takeuchi (2012). Global rice paddy
field mapping by integrating MODIS and AMSR-E mea-surements,
In: Proceed. In: Proceed. 33rd ACRS, Patthaya, Thailand.
Keetch, J.J. and Byram, G.M., 1968. A Drought Index for Forest Fire Control. Res. Paper SE-38. Asheville, NC: U.S. Department
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9.

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of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment
Station.
Okamoto, K., T. Iguchi, N. Takahashi, K. Iwanami and T.
Ushio, 2005: The Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) project. In Proceed.: 25th IGARSS, pp. 3414-3416.
Oyoshi, K., Takeuchi, W. and Tamura, M., 2010. Evaluation of
the algorithms for land surface temperature retrieval from MTSAT
data. Journal of Japanese Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing,49(4), 251-259 (in Japanese with English abstract).
Rosamond L. Naylor and Michael D. Mastrandrea (2009).
Coping with Climate Risks in Indonesian Rice Agriculture: A Policy
Perspective. (available at: http://iis-db.stanford.edu/, accessed on August 22, 2015).
Shofiyati, Rizatus, Wataru Takeuchi, Parwati Sofan, Soni
Darmawan, Awaluddin and Wahyu Supriatna (2014). Indonesian drought monitoring from space. A report of SAFE activity:
assessment of drought impact on rice production in Indonesia using
satellite remote sensing and dissemination with web-GIS. Malaysian
Journal of Remote Sensing and GIS (MJRSGIS), 3(2), 112-120.
Takeuchi, W., and Yasuoka, Y. (2005). Development of a vegetation-soil-water indices with satellite remote sensing data (in Japanesewith English abstract), Japanese J. Photogramm. and Remote Sens.,
43(6), 7-19.
Takeuchi, W. and Gonzalez, L., 2009. Blending MODIS andAMSR-E to predict daily land surface water coverage. In proceed. International Remote Sensing Symposium (ISRS), Busan, South Korea.
Wassmann, R., Lantin, R.S., and Neue, H.U. (2003). Methane
emissions from major rice ecosystems. Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Wilhite, D.A. and M.H. Glantz. (1985). Understanding theDrought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions. Water International
10(3):111-120.

69

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Alla PAKINA, Anastasia KARNAUSHENKO
Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University

Renewable energy resources
for green economy:case of Belgorod region
Introduction
Green economics as a new paradigm and a specific model of national
economic development implemented in the strategies of development
in many countries. The concept of green economics (GE) looks muchrealistic in comparison to the idea of sustainable development: its
viability is substantiated by not only institutional background, butalso innovations in technologies, first of all - in development of
renewable energy technologies. According to the United Nations
Environment Programme, green economy is one that “results inimproved human well-being and social equity, while significantly
reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities” [1]. Greeneconomics (GE) brings into consideration not only the lack of
economic resources which all the economies deal with, or the optional
combination in production process and sustainable consumption, butalso provides solutions in achieving sustainable economic model inchanging world [7].
The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines renewableenergy as follows: renewable energy is “energy derived from naturalprocesses (e.g. sunlight and wind) that are replenished at a fasterrate than they are consumed”. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro, andsome forms of biomass are common sources of renewable energy [5].
In its various forms, it derives directly or indirectly from the sun,or from heat generated deep within the earth. Today the share of
renewable energy is close to 20% of total global consumption. As
capacity continues to grow and prices for renewable energy and its
70Plenary Reports

equipment continue to fall, this share is likely to further increase.
Along with measures to promote energy efficiency, the increase inrenewable energy promises to provide many benefits to both the global
economy and individual countries and regions [16]. By all indications,a new energy transition is occurring today. It is reasonable to predictthat the share of renewable energy in the global power generation
will grow exponentially in next decades. For example, the IEA has
predicted that as much as 25% of the world’s gross power generation
will come from renewable energy sources by 2018 [5].
Institutional prerequisites for green
transition
It is widely recognised that one of the largest difficulties for green
development is strong dependency of most societies on nonrenewable fossil energy supplies. This is particularly characteristicof the Russian economy due to large reserves of oil and gas, which
provide most foreign currency earnings to the national budget.
Despite this, the development of renewable energy recognized as a
key indicator of the transition to green economy in Russia. In thisregard, studies on renewable energy effectiveness are crucial tofind solutions of environmental problems in Russia’s regions and topromote principles of a green growth.
The development of energy efficiency programs in Russia isbased on institutional prerequisites created in the period after 2000.
According to [4], the energy intensity of the Russian economy has
decreased in 6 times in comparison to 2005, but it is still 2 times higher
than, for example, in China. In this regard, the study of possibilities toreduce an energy consumption due to decoupling effect is still actual.
Perspectives for renewable energy use we investigated through thecase study of Belgorod region — one of the most developed regionsof Russia. The study aimed to assess environmental and economical
effectiveness of different kind of renewable energy sources and also
to identify their role in strategic development of the region.
Level of energy intensity or — in terms of “green” economy —carbon intensity of regional economy is one of the most representative
indicators of “green” growth. The world’s best practices of the green
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economy principles’ implementation demonstrate that energy
efficiency is a key criterion [2]. The institutional preconditions fortransition to a green growth in Russia are quite weak, however, there
are a number of programs, supporting activities on rising energy
efficiency in the research area. For instance, following acts of Belgorod
regional administration are aimed to promote “green energy”: “The
Concept of Bioenergy and Biotechnology Development of in the
Belgorod region in 2009-2012” and the Decree of the Governmentof Belgorod region from 19.07.10 “On approval of temporary rulesof calculation of economically justified regulated eco-tariffs forelectricity produced at electric power facilities using renewableenergy sources”. The Federal Acts, such as Federal Low “On energy
saving and increasing energy efficiency and on amendments tocertain legislative acts of the Russian Federation” (2009) also create
the basis for regional activity in the field.
Current economical situation at Belgorod
regionDue to the geographical location of the Belgorod region, the main
sectors of the regional economy are mining industry, developing on
the resources of the world’s richest Kursk magnetic anomaly, andagriculture, based on extremely rich humus soils — chernozem.
Belgorod region is only 0.2% of the total area of Russian Federation,
however, it ranks 26th in the list of 85 Russian regions. GRP structureis shown in Fig.1.
17%Agriculture, hunting and forestry

23%

Mining industry
15%

Manufacturing industry
Trade and services

4%

Construction industry
Production and distribution of electricity,
gas and water

9%
17%

15%

Fig. 1. GRP of Belgorod region

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200
150
Cattle breeding

100

Crop production
50
0
2000

2005

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Fig. 2. Dynamics of agricultural production in Belgorod region

The analysis of GRP dynamics shows that the total share of the
primary sector in regional economy is reducing during the last years
due to increasing share of the services sector. At the same time thedecline is typical mostly for the mining and metallurgical industries,
while agriculture has shown a tendency to increase. The role ofagriculture in the economic structure of the region has increased
significantly over the last 15 years [13]. For the period from 2000 to2014 the agricultural output has significantly increased (Fig. 2), boththe livestock and crop production. The share of agriculture in GRP in
recent years (2011-2014) also increased steadily, providing up to 17%
of GRP and occupying the second position after industrial production(mining and manufacturing industries together). In 2015, the shareof Belgorod region in Russia’s total agricultural production amounted
4.5% [6], which brought the region to leading positions in Russia (thesecond place in the national economy after the Krasnodar region).
One of the key features of the regional economy is a lack of domesticenergy production: the region produces only 6.3% of the required volume,and the rest comes from the neighboring regions where two Nuclear Power
Plants (Kurskaya and Novovoronejskaya) are located. Domestic energy
production is provided by local thermal power plants (TPP) and associatedwith attendant environmental impacts. The current regional development
has caused several environmental problems, such as air pollution from
TPP and transport in industrial cities (Stary Oskol and Gubkin cities),contamination of local rivers by agricultural waste, etc. [10].
73The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Preconditions for alternative energy
development
As it is shown in a number of recent scientific works — both theoreticaland applied — renewable energy use can be considered from point ofview of not only environmental effectiveness, but also economical
one [1; 10]. To evaluate perspectives of renewable energy development
in Belgorod region we have analysed its natural prerequisites, suchas the wind speed and the amount of solar energy, and compared
GRP energy intensity in cases of traditional and alternative energy
systems.
The area has sufficient resources to generate energy through local
renewable sources: the amount of solar radiation varies within its
boundaries from 1140 to 1200 kWh/m² per year (Fig. 3), which iscomparable with the southern regions of Russia, where such stations
are widely used. Wind resources are less promising, but also available
to produce energy: the average value of wind speed is about 5.2 m/s[14]. A comparison of the potential of renewable energy sources in
the Belgorod region and one of the European leaders in the field —Germany — showed that these variables are quite similar (Table 1).

Fig. 2. Dynamics of agricultural production in Belgorod region74Plenary Reports

Table 1. Comparative characteristics of renewable energy’s natural potential in the
Belgorod region (RF) and Germany

The possibility to increase the regional economy’s energy
efficiency we considered for two main types of regional industries:
the most energy-intensive industries, which are presented bymining and metallurgical plants, and less dependent from energy
consumption agriculture. The biggest industrial complexes —Lebedinsky and Stoilensky mining plants — are the part of the largest
Russian manufacturers with a world name JSC “Holding company“Metallinvest” and SC “Novolipetsk metallurgical plant”. According
to internal data and annual reports of these companies, they pay great
attention to improving energy efficiency and it is fully controlled
in a frame of productive process. Due to high energy demand thetransition to alternative sources at these plants is not economicallyjustified. Several studies [12; 9] on the prospects of renewable energy
implementation estimate their potential to cover the needs of large
plants. As the potential of wind energy basically is insufficient, so
more attention is usually given to solar energy. However, as it follows
from previous studies, implementation of solar power plants in theregion is also inefficient: their installation in industrial North of
the region, where the main production is concentrated, will face theproblem of dusting due to open-pit ore mining. Besides that, the area
reserved for panels that traps solar radiation, must be comparable
to the area occupied by career and tailing. The cost of such facilities
will amount to hundreds of billions Russian Rubles, which is exceeds
profitable investment. Taking into account a significant amount ofenergy, required to meet the needs of the Lebedinsky and Stoilensky
mining plants — more than 5 billion kWh per year — solar power
plants are not suitable to replace traditional sources.
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Table 2. Accumulation of organic waste from livestock in agricultural farms of Belgorod
region

The next step was the analysis of statistical data [13] to calculate
the volume of organic waste biomass generated in the agricultural
sector of the region (table 2). Biomass resources in Belgorod region
are represented mainly by livestock waste; crop production gives awaste mostly from grain and beet processing (straw and sugar beetpulp), which are used in animal husbandry as bedding and feed.
Reducing energy intensity of the regional economy is one of themain criterion of energy efficiency at the way towards sustainability.
During the study project we have considered a possibility to produce
energy through bio-waste recycling on example of individual farms.
Taking into account the region’s share in the pork production (nowexceeds 28% of the total), it could be a suitable decision to increaseenergy efficiency and to reduce traditional fuel consumption.
The consequences of the large use of fossil carbon are twofold –first that supplies will come to an end; secondly that the end product— carbon dioxide — builds up and cause environmental damage [11].
Bio-energy development may not only to reduce carbon intensity, butalso to provide opportunities for increasing welfare. It can generate
employment and raise incomes in farming communities and provide
a sustainable source of energy that is an affordable substitute forfossil fuels. Investments in bio-energy may increase harvests forboth food and fuel crops.
The total volume of organic waste from farms in the Belgorod
region (about 12.5 mln. tons of high-calorie mass per year) is enoughfor biogas production with amount needed to cover their electricity
demand (721,1 million kW·h). Taking into account the different
moisture, the volume of 12.5 mln. tons of organic waste will give76Plenary Reports

Fig. 4. Biogas station «Luchki» (Belgorod region) https://sdelanounas.ru/blogs/22478

about 250 thousand m³ of biogas per year. Recycling of all the
livestock waste at the biogas stations in Belgorod region will let to
produce about 2 bln. kW·h annually. If the share of energy dispatched
to cover the own needs of the plants will reach from 25 to 50%, thetotal output of electricity will be about 1 bln. kW·h per year.
Today the Belgorod region has a great potential for agricultural
production wastes’s (especially livestock) recycling for energy
purposes, and such facilities are already in operation in some farmsof the region. In contrast to solar and wind stations the biogas
station reveals quite high efficiency. Taking into considerationthat renewable en ergy at all and biomass energy particularly ismost often local by its nature [11], we concluded that the biomass
resources have the greatest potential as a renewable energy sourcein the study area.
Environmental and economic efficienciesof biomass utilization
Experiences of a number of developed countries show that theirattempts to reduce ecological impact while maintaining economic
growth — for example, by reducing GHG emissions in absolute terms
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within their territories — were not absolutely successful in the last
decades. Unfortunately, life cycle emissions of final consumption,in fact, increased in many cases: production of emission-intensive
goods has simply moved elsewhere [15]. That’s why a key issue
in this field is transfer of focus from production or consumption
parameters to evaluation of efficiency. This idea fully corresponds tothe principles of a “green” economy, which is a low-carbon, resource
efficient and socially inclusive economy. In a case of Belgorod region
the main attention must be given to development of innovativetechnological and management approaches. Such innovations canbe considered as the most important benefit from environmentallyoriented policy.
Environmental management effectiveness is one of the mostcomplicated issues in modern environmental policy due to necessity
to combine economic, ecological and social aspects as equal. Economic
policy in Belgorod region must be aimed to provide not only an
economic growth but also to achieve environmental and social effects
for local population. Energy efficiency in the agricultural sector of
Belgorod region’s economy is very actual issue, since agriculture
dominated in the territorial structure of land use (77% of the total
area of the land fund), and a most part of the population (18.7%)
is employed in agriculture. The energy intensity of the regional
economy, we evaluated as:EC

E GRP = GRP ,(1)where EGDP is energy intensity (kW·h /RR), EC — energy consumption(kW·h), GRP — Gross Regional Product (RR).
Evaluation of current energy intensity of the regional economy
showed that the total amount at the area is 24 kWh/1000 RR.
The difference between economy’s sectors is quite substantial:in agriculture — 6 kWh/1000 RR, and in mining industry —57 kWh/1000 RR. Reduction of energy intensity in industrial
production is the most urgent task, however it can be solved in a78

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framework of its modernization. Achieving lower energy intensity
in agriculture is more realistic, since such experience is alreadydone, and implementation of biogas stations is effective on a level ofindividual farms. Bio-waste utilization will result both in covering
agriculture’s needs in energy and decline in total energy intensityof the regional economy. The total energy consumption of GRP,
while maintaining the volume of production, will decline by 4.2%
(from 24 to 23 kWh for 1000 Russian Rubles). Changes in a structureof regional economy are always related to new projects, requiring
careful consideration of all the consequences. This especiallyconcerns changes in environmental and social spheres [8]. In a caseof developing new facilities on bio-waste recycling at individual
farms the proposed changes are mainly connected to construction
and operation, and will cause an increase in employment of local
population. Employees of different skills in various industries— from economists and engineers to unskilled workers — would
be needed in the process of construction and further operation offacilities. During the operation staff of about 8 people will be neededfor every of the biogas stations. In addition, the small business sector(building materials from local suppliers, transport services, etc.)
will be engaged during the construction period. Thus, each station
produces a number of new job places with different skills, which isextremely important for rural areas.
Conclusion
The analysis of perspective directions of the transition towards a“green” economy on the example of Belgorod region shows that the
bioenergy use is accompanied by multiple effects through achieving
goals on improvement energy efficiency and reduction of resources
intensity while increasing employment. From this point of view, biomass utilization contributes to so-called “decoupling” effect, when
the GRP growth rate exceeds the growth rate of energy consumption.
Today the regional economy development is characterized by a highlevel of impact on the environment, and it is expected to arise in the
future. The assessment of the biogas production’s potential and its
comparison with other renewable energy resources in Belgorod re79

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gion has demonstrated that it can be considered as an effective way
to reduce carbon intensity of the regional economy while covering
energy demand.

1.
2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

References
A guide to the green economy: Issue 4. United Nations Division
for Sustainable Development, UNDESA. 2013, 52 p.
Bezrukih P.P. (2012). Jenergojeffektivnost’ i ohrana okruzhajushhej sredy: aktual’nye zadachi (Energy efficiency and environmental
protection: actual issues). Bjulleten’ Instituta ustojchivogo razvitija
Obshhestvennoj palaty RF — Bulletin of the Institute of Sustainable
Development of the Public Chamber of Russian Federation. № 61. P.
39-49 (in Russian).
Chernova, N.I., Korobkova, T.P., Kiselyova, S.V. (2010). Biomassa kak istochnik energii (Biomass as a source of energy) // Vestnik Rossiiskoi Akademii Estestvennych Nauk (Bulletin of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences), 1, 54-60 [in Russian].
Drujinin P.V., Scherbak A.P. (2015). Jenergojeffektivnost’ rossijskoj jekonomiki i “zelenaja” jekonomika [Energy efficiency of Rissan
economy and “green” economy]. Sbornik trudov XIII Mejdunarodnoj
konferencii Rossijskogo obschestva jekologicheskoj jekonomiki — Proceedings of the XIII International conference of the Russian Society of
Ecological Economics. P. 27-36 [in Russian].
Energy consumption per capita and energy intensity forselected countries, 1990-2012 (2014). International Energy
Agency. Retrieved from https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/
graphics/2014-08-19-energy-consumption-per-capita-and-energy-intensity.html.
Federal state statistics service (Rosstat) (2015). Retrieved fromhttp://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/
Jean-Vasile A., Andrea I.R., Adrian T.R. (2015). Green Economic Structures in Modern Business and Society. Published by Hershey,
PA: Business Science Reference, imprint of IGI Global, 325 p.
Pakina A. (2014). Green Economy’s Prospects in Russia: Case of
Baikal Area // Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Wa80

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9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.
15.

16.

ter and Environment Systems. Volume 2, Issue 2, pp. 139–151. DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.13044/j.sdewes.2014.02.0013
Pakina A., Karjauova M. (2016). Razvitie vozobnovljaemoj jenergetiki v kontekste “zelenoj” jekonomiki: opyt Kostanajskoj oblasti(Kazahstan) [Renewable energy development in a context of “green”
economy: experience of Kostanay region (Kazakhstan) // Vestnik of
Volgograd state university. Series 3. Economics. Ecology. № 4. P.
94–103. [in Russian]. DOI: 10.15688/jvolsu3.2016.4.8
Pakina A., Karnaushenko A. (2017). Renewable energy efficiency for regional development: case of Belgorod region // Economics
and Business. Vol. 30, #1. P. 146–154.
Ryden, L. (2012). Energy Production in the Rural Landscape. Rural
Development and Land Use. Editors: I. Karlsson and L. Ryden. The Baltic University Program, Uppsala University, 186–195.
Shagaev O. F. (2012). Raschet jelektrosnabzhenija Lebedinskogo
GOKa ot poluprovodnikovyh solnechnyh panelej [Calculation of Lebedinsky GOK power supply from the semiconductor solar panels].
Nauchnyj vestnik MGGU — Scientific Bulletin of MSGU. №4 (25).
P. 90-95.
Territorial body of Federal state statistics service in the Belgorod region (Belgorodstat) (2015). Retrieved from http://belg.
gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_ts/belg/ru/statistics/
The NASA Surface Meteorology and Solar Energy Data Set. Retrieved from http://http://eosweb.larc.nasa.gov/project/sse/sse_table.
Tukker, A., Bulavskaya, T., Giljum, S., de Koning, A., Lutter,S., Simas, M., Stadler, K., Wood, R. (2014). The Global Resource
Footprint of Nations. Carbon, water, land and materials embodied in
trade and final consumption calculated with EXIOBASE 2.1. Leiden/
Delft/Vienna/Trondheim. P. 8–12.
UNEP (2013). Green Economy and Trade — Trends, Challenges
and Opportunities. Available at: http://www.unep.org/greeneconomy/
GreenEconomyandTrade// Renewable energy (2013). United Nations
Environment Programme. 257 p.

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Special Session I“Meteorological risks in Cryosphere —further collaboration with MSU,
UTokyo & National Research Institutefor Earth Science and Disaster Resilience(NIED)”
Makoto SHIMAMURA
Director-General, Innovation Center for Meteorological
Disaster Mitigation, National Research Institute for Earth Scienceand Disaster Resilience (NIED)The railway protection
forest. A century long
maintenance and the future
outlook

The railway network in Japan has developed and maintained anation-wide protection forest system for more than a century. The
management and measurement of their disaster mitigation function
against various natural hazards is undertaken according to therailway’s administrative standards. The current goal of the railway
protection forest system is to establish and maintain rational andnatural protection forests at minimal cost.
Although the idea of using protection forests as protection fromnatural hazards has existed since feudal period, it was the railway
authorities that brought the idea into practice in modern Japan. Japanese82Plenary Reports

railways launched their plan to develop railway protection forests
before the first national forestry law was enacted and have cultivated
the woods since then, following their own administrative rules. Thesewoods, which were established by railways and are designed to protect
railways, have been termed “railway protection forests”.
Today, Japan has an approximately 25,000 km network of railway
tracks, with an aggregate annual volume of 360 billion passengerkilometers and 23 billion ton-kilometers of freight. The total area andwayside length railway protection forests amounts to approximately
11,000 ha and 1,500 km, respectively.
Railway protection forests are classified into 9 categories, depending on
their protective functions: snowdrift, snow avalanche, sand drift, landslide,rock fall, flood, fire, wind, and water source (for steam locomotive).
The first railway protection forests were the 41 snowdrift protection
forests that were placed along the Tohoku Line between Mizusawa and
Aomori in 1893. This line started full operations between Tokyo and Aomori
in 1890, but the transport along the line in winter was very unreliablebecause of heavy snow. Trains were frequently delayed, or even trapped fordays, by snowdrifts. All trains on this line had to load emergency foodstuffs
for passengers and train crews had to prepare for such events that the train
was trapped in snow. Wooden fences, which were built along the tracks
in localities with heavy snow, were ineffective as strong winds and flying
embers from locomotives easily destroyed them.
Seiroku Honda, the founding father of railway protection forests inJapan and the first professor in silviculture at the Imperial Universityof Tokyo, devised a plan for snowdrift protection forests to protect
railway tracks from blowing snow, after inspecting the afforestationsites developed by the Canadian Pacific Railway, which he had visitedon his way home following academic studies in Germany. This marked
the birth of the railway protection forest system in Japan.
Seiroku Honda founded the first protection forests in 1892, using
German silvicultural methods and continued to work as the technicaladviser in the railway ministry for about 30 years, training his
successors. Snowdrift protection forests account for 90% of the total
area of railway protection forests in Japan. They are sited mainly on
Hokkaido Island and the northern part of Honshu Island.
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Fig. 1. An example of a snowdrift protection forest in Hokkaido

Fig. 2. An example of a snowdrift protection forest in Honshu

The need to maintain forests on slopes susceptible to snow
avalanches has been long recognized in Japan. This knowledge was
integrated into the legal system and also realized in the historical
practice of forest management in Japan; some feudal landlords
designated part of their territories as snow avalanche protection
forests, where cutting of the trees was strictly restricted.
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Fig. 3. An example of a snowdrift protection forest in Honshu

After the opening of Tohoku Line, which connected cities along
the northern Pacific coast between Tokyo and Aomori, constructionof new lines began aiming to connect cities on the Tohoku Line anddistricts on the Sea of Japan coast through the snowy and mountainous
hinterland of northern Honshu Island. Snow avalanche problems wereencountered soon after these new lines came into operation.
For example, Ganetsu Line, which opened in 1914, experienced 75
avalanches in 1917 and some of these cases involved fatalities andinjuries, and serious property losses. As the result of lessons learned
from those repealed disasters, the railway authority designatedslopes prone to snow avalanches avalanche protection forest areas
and undertook the necessary afforestation measures.
Avalanche protection forests are considered the most indispensableand effective disaster prevention measure of all the types of railway
protection forests because they mitigate or prevent the destructive andfatal potential of avalanche disasters. Ganetsu Line was affected byapproximately 250 avalanches in its first 20 years, but experienced only
7 in the next 20 years, by which time the avalanche protection forests
had reached maturity. Avalanche protection forests are sited mainly
along mountain range lines in Hokkaido and northern Honshu Island.
There are a large number of sand dunes along the coast of Sea ofJapan of Honshu Island. Trains on the newly opened lines passing
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through these areas encountered frequent disturbances such as
derailments and blockages due to sand drifting onto the track. At firstwooden fences were built along the lines to block sand drifts, but they
were easily destroyed by gales and proved totally ineffective. Sand drift
protection forests based on traditional forestry methods were adopted
as an alternative measure and developed along the Uetsu Line in 1921.
Aeolian movement of sand completely stops as soon as the sand dunes
are vegetated, and the protective effects of sand drift protection forests
are prompt and significant. Sand drift protection forests have also been
established on the Hokuriku, Sanin and other coastal lines.
Landslides and rock falls are frequent natural hazards for railways
in the mountainous regions of Japan, where the soil is unstable andprecipitation is abundant. As more tracks were built in mountainous
regions, forest cutting on mountain slopes above the tracks initiatedmany landslides and rock falls. These events prompted the railway todevelop landslide protection forests and rock fall protection forests,
which are now ubiquitous in Japan.
For more than 100 years, the Japanese railway network has madeuse of the benefits of protection forests in many other situations.
Protection forests surrounding springs protected the water supply
for steam locomotives, stations, offices and quarters before it waspossible to import water by pipeline.
The afforestation method and afforestation system of railway
protection forests are selected and adjusted to fit local conditions
and needs. The snowdrift protection forests in Honshu are afforested
with Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica), and in Hokkaido, with
European spruce (Picea abies). Both of these species are evergreen,
fast growing and tolerant of high planting densities.
The width of the strips necessary for effective snowdrift shelterin general is approximately 20 meters. Seiroku Honda prescribed theminimal width of snowdrift protection forests as 40 to 60 meters. This
was to enable between a third and half of the wood to be cut (using
patch cuts) and reforested without sacrificing the snowdrift shelteringfunction of the woods. This method has both prolonged the longevityof the woods and generated a financial return, making it possible tosustain the railway protection forests for more than 100 years.
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Snow avalanche protection forests are also planted with Japanesecedar, which can grow even under heavy snowpack conditions. The
renewal procedure of small patch cuts and replanting, as applied
for snowdrift protection forests, is inappropriate for snow avalanche
protection forests because the mountain slopes require continuousand dense forest coverage. Accordingly, avalanche protection forests
are renewed by thinning and planting individual trees so that theprotection function of the woods is constantly maintained. Sand
drift protection forests are similar to avalanche protection forests inregards with their afforestation system, except that Japanese blackpine (Pinus thanbergiana), which is suited to coastal soils and climate,is planted instead of Japanese cedar.
For more than 100 years, railway protection forests havebeen developed based on coniferous monocultures, enabling the
maximum timber yield and revenue at cutting. In the past, railway
protection forests have provided timber for railway sleepers,buildings and other structures. Sale of these products has provided
the revenue needed for afforestation treatments. Currently, there islittle cutting as the timber revenues that are generated do not cover
the cost of the cutting. As the result, the ecological, functional andaesthetic conditions of railway protection forests have deteriorated.
This is because the monocultures require constant silviculturalinterventions, not only to establish seedlings, but also to tend
the grown trees in order to maintain ecologically healthy standconditions. These interventions are costly because labor costs haverisen sharply over the last few decades.
Transformation of these planted protection forests to native
vegetation communities, which are adaptable and require lessnurture attention, is one of the possible solutions to this problem
and will also impart an environmental friendliness to the railway.
East Japan Railway Company introduced the concept of naturalvegetation for railway protection forests in 1992. Although modern
railway tracks may withstand many of the natural hazards theyencounter without the protection of railway protection forests, wevalue them as helping our technology to coexist in harmony withthe environment.
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Sergey SOKRATOV
Department of Cryolithology and Glaciology, Faculty of
Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Comprehensive Arctic
geographical research at
the Faculty of Geography
Lomonosov Moscow State
University
The Faculty of Geography is one of very few institutions in Russia
offering the scientific degrees in cryospheric science. Evidently,
this is because of the fact that the stuff of the faculty has extensive
knowledge of Polar and mainly Arctic region. The interest to Arctic
region increased considerably in the past few years and the reasonsfor that are as the following:• Arctic region represents a mixture of various geopolitical interests;• In Russia the region is considered as “practically unexploredresource for the Russian oil–gas industry”;• Exploration of Arctic is difficult, ecologically dangerous, withresulting high production cost, which requires specific scientific support to industrial development;• Arctic is known to be the most vulnerable region to the ongoing climate change;• Arctic is site of the large projects realization including thestate-issued “The development strategy of the Arctic zone of
the Russian Federation and national security for the period up
to 2020”.
For scientific community the increased interest resulted in numberof calls from different scientific Funds, the Faculty of Geography
was active participant with several successful projects. However,88Plenary Reports

increased “price” of the projects required reconsideration of thestandard specifically-focused approach, like just on separate topics
of oceanology, climatology, glaciology, natural hazards, economical
geography, etc., into combination of these fields. It is not yet what isnamed “system analysis”, but serious step forward into that direction.
Especially important was combination of social sciences and physicalgeography.
The first successful attempt of such comprehensive research was“Megagrant” named “Natural Risk Assessment Laboratory”. Formallythe Laboratory still exists, though, by the rules of the Ministry of
Education, it has to support itself by self-organized external funding.
As a result, it was transformed with the same core scientists into
the Russian Science Foundation (RSF) funded “Arctic Environment
Laboratory” as the result of successful application under the frameof the RSF “Laboratory establishing call”. In addition, the team has
several related to the Arctic topic smaller RSF, Russian Foundationof Basic Research (RFBR) and Russian Geographical Society grants.
Same scientists can be members of several projects, while some, eveninvited from other scientific organizations, are involved into justone or two. Practically such construction represents an institution
above the standard “State financed” research topics in MSU. It’s canbe rather difficult to be ruled but does provide interesting scientificresults including funding opportunities for young researchers andstudents of different levels.
Fortunately, there is no need to construct all the databases andalgorithms from scratch. A lot is constructed before, and new funding
opportunities could be mainly used for inter-topical combinations
and comparison. However, such combinations also need new
developments. Thus, a system of data cataloging constructed inside
the project by the team members from the State Hydrological Institutein St. Petersburg could be used in the project and hopefully would be
used in future (Anisimov & Kokorev, 2016).
The main objects of investigation were, of course, mainly same asprevious. For example, they were various climate parameters in thiscase related to particular social and economic application. They werecalled “socially-important characteristics” — about 50 of them, such
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as those used in agriculture (vegetation period, soil temperature,snow season duration etc.) or describing the Arctic Seas conditions(wind speed, etc.), calculated and presented as maps for the present
time, middle and the end of the XXI century (Surkova, 2015).
If combined with the sea ice extent the wind becomes a componentof storms and possible passability of the Arctic Sea routes (Myslenkov
et al., 2015b). And it was also important to model the waves
characteristics — length, frequency, or height (Myslenkov et al.,2015a). The waves regime is closely related to the surges formationin the mouths of the Arctic rivers, which was also investigated andmodeled (Korablina et al., 2016).
Going to the land, the ice regime of Arctic rivers is very important
for the Russia, both in terms of the winter roads and the flooding in
Springs (Agafonova & Frolova, 2016; Lebedeva & Alabyan, 2016). The
Arctic temperature data, when combined with the sea ice data can be
related to the coastal line change (Shabanova et al., 2017).
Dynamics of the snow cover is another crucial parameter for
exploration of the Russian Arctic. It is studied in close collaboration
with international scientific community (i.e. Bokhorst et al., 2016).
Since any future projections of the state of the environment haveto be related to the economic needs, whether this is the snow coverdependent run-off or the building-construction requirements — theState Standards (CCP, 2011) are accounted for in ongoing Arctic
investigations and the new ones are developed by the members of
the team (i.e. CCP, 2018).
Permafrost and permafrost-free territories in the Russian Arctic
are also in focus of the Faculty stuff both as the naturally-changing
Arctic territory phenomena being also under the anthropogenicpressure (Romanenko & Shilovtseva, 2016a; 2016b).
At the top of all the activity are the considerations of the
population and the economy, which is the most tricky part, but still
manageable (Baburin et al., 2015; 2016). The estimations include
GDP per municipal units from the State Statistics, there are someconstructions related to extracting direct and indirect costs and losses.
The population can be considered as the integral characteristics ofthe economic development, same as the temperature at 2 m level
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is the integral characteristic of the surface energy balance. The
population differs from west to the east, reflexing the transportation
possibilities and the environmental conditions. Interestingly,
the population is closely linked to, for example, the permafrost
distribution and even to the distribution of the accepted “types” ofpermafrost (Badina, 2017).
Evidently, the natural hazards are also part of the Arctic
investigation. The active development requires preparedness to local
specific for people coming from other regions. An example on theconnection between the risk and the economic activity was not longago described for the Sakhalin island (Qiu, 2014). A “remote” for theCentral Russia region with low mountains brought the quantity ofsnow avalanche victims highest in the World. And the timing of theextreme quantity of accidents corresponds exactly to the time of theincreased developing, first by Japanese, than by Russians.
In conclusion: The Faculty of Geography is very active in Arctic
Research and open to collaboration practically in any scientific topic.
However, the most interesting would be comprehensive research,such as those, described above.

1.

2.

3.

4.

References
Agafonova S.A., Frolova N.L. Ice jam floods at the Sukhona Rivernear Veliky Ustyug. In Sokratov S.A. (Ed.) Changing climate of the Russian Arctic and its socio-economic potential. Vol. 2. Moscow: Liga-Vent,
2016. P. 56–64 [in Russian, with English abstract].
Anisimov O.A., Kokorev V.A. Climate in the Arctic zone of Russia: Analysis of current changes and modeling trends for the 21st
century. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seria 5, Geografia. 2016;(1): 61–70 [in Russian, with English abstract].
Baburin V.L., Badina S.V., Goryachko M.D., Zemtsov S.P.,
Koltermann K.P. Vulnerability assessment of socio-economic development of the russian arctic territories. Vestnik Moskovskogo
Universiteta. Seria 5, Geografia. 2016; (6): 71–77 [in Russian, withEnglish abstract].
Baburin V.L., Badina S.V., Goryachko V.D., Zemtsov S.P.
Zones of concentration of the social-economic potential of Arctic. In
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Sokratov S.A. (Ed.) Changing climate of the Russian Arctic and its
socio-economic potential. Moscow: Liga-Vent, 2015. P. 74–126 [inRussian, with English abstract].
5. Badina S.V. Quantification of Russian Arctic’s socio-economic
potential vulnerability in the zone of permafrost degradation. Regional research, 2017; (3(57)): 107–116 [in Russian with English
abstract].
6. Bokhorst S., Pedersen S. H., Brucker L., Anisimov O., Bjerke
J.W., Brown R.D., Ehrich D., Essery R.L., Heilig A., IngvanderS., Johansson C., Johansson M., Jónsdóttir I.S., Inga N., Luojus K., Macelloni G., Mariash H., McLennan D., Rosqvist N.,
Sato A., Savela H., Schneebeli M., Sokolov A., Sokratov S.A.,
Terzago S., Vikhamar-Schuler D., Williamson S.N., Qiu Y.,
Callaghan T.V. Changing arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts. Ambio, 2016, 45(5): 516–537. doi: 10.1007/s13280016-0770-0.
7. CCP (Construction Code of Practice) Engineering geological survey
for construction in snow avalanches-endangered regions. General requirements (СП **.13330.20** — under consideration by the Ministry of Construction, should be out in 2018).
8. CCP (Construction Code of Practice) The snow cover weight (SP20.13330.2011). Ministry of Construction, 2011.
9. Goryachko M.D. Investment appeal of the Russian Arctic regions.
In Sokratov S.A. (Ed.) Changing climate of the Russian Arctic and its
socio-economic potential. Vol. 2. Moscow: Liga-Vent, 2016. P. 197–
219 [in Russian, with English abstract].
10. Korablina A.D., Arkhipkin V.S., Samborski T.V. Modeling features formation storm surge in a dynamic system White Sea — mouth area Northern Dvina river. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seria 5, Geografia.
2016; (1): 78–86 [in Russian, with English abstract].
11. Lebedeva S.V., Alabyan A.M. Floods in the Northern Dvina rivermouth: modeling and forecast. In Sokratov S.A. (Ed.) Changing climate of the Russian Arctic and its socio-economic potential. Vol. 2.
Moscow: Liga-Vent, 2016. P. 146–160 [in Russian, with English abstract].
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12. Myslenkov S.A., Arkhipkin V.S., Koltermann K.P. Estimationof the height of swell in the White and Barents Seas. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seria 5, Geografia. 2015a; (5): 59–66 [in Russian, with English abstract].
13. Myslenkov S.A., Platonov V.S., Toropov P.A., Shestakova
A.A. Simulation of storm waves in the Barents Sea. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seria 5, Geografia. 2015b; (6): 65–75 [in Russian, with English abstract].
14. Qiu J. Avalanche hotspot revealed. Nature, 2014, 509(7499), 142–
143, doi: 10.1038/509142a
15. Romanenko F.A., Shilovtseva O.A. Distribution of the geomorphological processes in the North of Russia and climate changes. In
Sokratov S.A. (Ed.) Changing climate of the Russian Arctic and its
socio-economic potential. Vol. 2. Moscow: Liga-Vent, 2016a. P. 179–
196 [in Russian, with English abstract].
16. Romanenko F.A., Shilovtseva O.A. Geomorphologic processes
in the Kola peninsula mountains and the climate change. Vestnik
Moskovskogo Universiteta. Seria 5, Geografia. 2016b; (6): 78–86 [inRussian, with English abstract].
17. Shabanova N.N., Ogorodov S.A., Romanenko F.A. Russianarctic coastal dynamics hydrometeorological forcing: Half-century
history and current state. In Proceedings of Coastal Dynamics 2017.
Technical University of Denmark and University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, 2017. Paper 196, pp. 108–116.
18. Surkova G.V. Climate resources of the present-time climate in the
middle and at the end of the XXI century as a base for prognosisof the socially-important indexes in Arctic. In Sokratov S.A. (Ed.)
Changing climate of the Russian Arctic and its socio-economic potential. Moscow: Liga-Vent, 2015. P. 7–20 [in Russian, with English
abstract].

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Satoru YAMAGUCHISnow and Ice Research Center, National Research Institute for
Earth Science and Disaster Resilience

Snow and ice researchin National ResearchInstitute for Earth Scienceand Disaster Resilience(NIED)

Fig. 1. Snow cover condition in Japan

94

BackgroundIn this paper, I introduce“Snow and Ice research in
National Research Institutefor Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED)”. Before explaining our works,
I introduce Japanese snowy
condition features. Figure 1
shows the snow cover condition in Japan. Japan has Japan
has various snow conditions
due to the long areas from 44
to 32˚ north latitude. In thenorthern part of Japan (Hokkaido Island), depth hoar develop very well like Siberia
while in the central part of Japan (Honshu Island), snow is
wet due to high temperature
condition even though in the
Midwinter.

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As a background of these complicated snowy conditions, Japan
has various disasters related with snow and ice as following:
Avalanches: we have every type of avalanches (surface layer avalanches with dry / wet, full depth avalanches, and slush avalanches).
Every winter, several people, most of them were back country skiers,
are killed by avalanche accidents. Moreover, a lot of roads, which are
the main road to connect each town, were stopped due to high avalanche risk potentials.
Snow accretions: Snow falls in Honshu Island frequently occur
around 0˚ C, thus power lines have sometimes problems due to snow
accretion. In addition, snow falling from the bridges and traffic signs,
they sometimes attack cars or human being on the road, are also
severe problems.
Blowing snow: Strong blowing and drifting snow cause severe
traffic accidents, and reduce quality of life and human activity (Especially in Northern Japan, Hokkaido).
They induce low visibility on roads. Moreover, snow cornices aredeveloped by snowdrift on the leeward of slopes in the mountainsites and they frequently lead to avalanche release.
Other disasters: Landslides and flood resulting from snow melting are also severe problems. Snow road accidents are still serious
problems, and recently accidents during snow removal are on the increase.
Research on mitigation of snow-ice
disasters
In order to protect our lives and properties from snow and ice
disasters, our institute has developed observation, forecast, andestimation techniques for such kind of disasters using advanced
observation technologies and numerical simulations. Our institute has also implemented these technologies to our society fordisaster prevention and resilience. To accomplish these aims, wehave conducted the project with not only observation but also laboratory experiments, and also developed models based on theseresults. Hereafter, I will introduce the more detailed content ofour project.
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Subject 1: Measurement of spatial/detailed falling snow information:
Snow disaster types strongly depend on characteristics and/or
amount of falling snow. Therefore, it is very important to obtain thecorrect information of falling snow characteristics. From these viewpoints, we have harmonized remote sensing techniques and groundobservations. To get the information of verification data of the Doppler radar, we established the detailed precipitation and meteorological observation sites in the scope of the Doppler radar (Fig. 2). Using
these ground observation data, we are now developing the algorism toobtain the accurate estimations of distribution and intensity of fallingsnow, and also precipitation particle types from the Doppler radar data.

Fig. 2. Distribution of precipitation and meteorological observation sites in the scopearea of the Doppler Rader

Subject 2: Development of numerical snow cover model
Deposited snow is ever-changing material with the meteorology
condition and snow disaster risks change with them, thus the prediction of the snow characteristics using a snow cover model is essential96Plenary Reports

for forecasting of snow disasters. Our main topics about this subject are: The first topic is the simulation of wet snow characteristics,
namely, water movement in snow including not only uniform watertransportation process, but also the preferential flow through waterpass and physical properties of wet snow, such as, changes of viscosity or strength with water. These are very important because snow inmost of Japanese areas is wet throughout the winter season. Second
topic is the physics of new snow crystal because most of weak layers
related with avalanche accidents in Japan are composed of fallingsnow crystals. For this study, we collaborate with the meteorology
scientists studying falling snow (Subject 1).
Subject 3: Development of snow disaster forecasting system
We have developed the snow disaster forecasting system since2004. Fig. 3 shows the schematic diagram of the snow disaster forecasting system. The system consists of three parts: One is the meteorological model, in which we forecast meteorological condition until
the one day future. Second part is the numerical snow cover model(Subject 2), and third part is the forecasting models for each disaster: blowing snow model, avalanche forecasting model, snow roadmodel and snow accretion model. These third parts have been independently developed, thus we can easily change these models whenthe model is improved.
The forecasting information based on the system has been tentatively offered to local governments, avalanche patrols and roadmanagement during the winter season and the information is used
for more efficient hazard risk managements. On the other hand, theinformation of snow disasters, which were given by them, becomesvery helpful data to improve the system.
Blowing snow model: Our developing model treats not only large
scale, but also small scale. To improve the model, we have focused on
the following issues:
1. Influence of snowflake collisions on snow surfaces on snow
blowing.
2. Dependency of snow blowing on snow condition (dry/soft, hard etc.).
3. Basic physical elements of snow blowing based on the numerical methods, observations, and wind-tunnel experiments.
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Meteorogical model (NHM)
Meteorogical data

Numerical snowcover model(SNOWPACK)
Snow stratigrahy

Bloing snow
model

Avalanche
forecasting model

Snow road
model

Snow
accretion
model

Fig. 3. The schematic diagram of the snow disaster forecasting system

The forecasting information using the blowing snow model istentatively offered to the local government in the Northern part ofJapan, Hokkaido Island.
Avalanche forecasting model: Our developing model is combined
the snow cover model with the avalanche dynamics model. Thus, themodel can forecast not only the timing of avalanche, but also thedamage scale by predicted avalanche. Firstly, we predict the timingof avalanche using the numerical snow cover model (Subject 1) tosimulate the weak layer characteristics (e.g. strength, location) in
the snow cover. Then, we estimate the volume of avalanche resulting
from the predicted weak layer. The avalanche scale is predicted basedon simulation of the avalanche dynamics models, such as, Bingham
fluid model or Titan 2D model, with the estimated avalanche volume.
Snow accretion model: This model treats the process from accumulation to falling the deposited snow. The model has been developed based on the snow accretion mechanism investigations withcold room experiments and/or observations. We have forecasted snow
accretion throughout the winter season and the forested information
is tentatively offered to the road management.
Our snow disaster forecasting model has been improved every
winter and it becomes almost practical level now.
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Cryosheric Environment Simulator
at Shinjo
The Cryosheric Environment Simulator (CES) established in 1997, isa large state-of-art facility for domestic and international cooperative use. CES can reproduce cryospheric environment including thesnowfall similar to the natural one, where we can conduct many projects on basic and applied disaster mitigation studies and cryosohericenvironment studies. Fig. 4 shows the schematic image of CES. The
CES also has wind tunnel, solar radiation system, rainfall system andso on. In addition, the room temperature can be changed from -30 to25 ˚C. Thus we can produce every condition in the cryosphere region
using the CES. Recently, we have introduced two new equipments toadvance the understanding of snow micro-physics at the CES: One
is a cryogenic micro-CT with high resolution (Fig. 5a). Second one
is a cryogenic MRI (Magnetic Resournance Images) (Fig. 5b), which
is usually used in the medical field. The MRI can direct detail water existence in snow, which is difficult to get using the Micro-CT.

Fig. 4. The schematic image of CES

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Fig. 5. New equipments for snow micro-physics:
a: Cryogenic μ-CT
b: Cryogenic MRITherefore, the CES is the highest level of the experimental facility forcryosheric environment study in the world.
International joint research
We have worked with several institutes in the abroad based on thefollowing international collaborations:
WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research, SLF (Since 2014).
National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture, IRSTEA (Since 2016).
Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of
Sciences (Since 2015).
It is our pleasure if we can establish the collaboration between
Japan and Russia for snow science near future.

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Session 3“Urbanization risk management”

Kiichiro HATOYAMA1 and Daiki HIRAMATSU2
1
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo,
2
Tokio Marine & Nichido Fire Insurance Co. Ltd.

Transportation management
against natural disasters
Here, we would like to explain our research about transportation
management against natural disasters that we have been studying in
Kochi prefecture in Japan.
Needs of transportation
management
In Japan we had experienced a huge earthquake and tsunami disasterin 2011 and it is still expected that another huge earthquake andtsunami disaster will come in several decades and attack different
places with huge tsunami. To avoid large human damage, it isindispensable to develop a technology to support people’s evacuation.
Other than huge disasters, there exist various natural disasters inJapan (Fig. 1). For example heavy snow falls often causes heavy traffic
jams even in the capital of Japan. To secure smoother transportation
environment, it is also necessary to improve technologies to modify
travel behavior under severe climate condition. Тoday we would liketo focus the former topic.
Technologies to save lives from tsunami
Figure 2 shows the basic concept of the technologies to save lives
from tsunami disaster. Though it was prohibited to evacuate by car
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Low frequency
Huge tsunami
Tsunami

Pyroclastic flow
VolcanoHuge earthquake

Ashfall

Forest fire
Avalanche

Landslide

Limiteddamagearea

Earthquake

TornadoTyphoonWidedamagearea

Stormsurge

Heavysnow
Torrential
rain

Flood

Heavy rain
Highwind

High frequency
Fig. 1. Variety of natural disasters in Japanin principle before the great earthquake and tsunami disaster in
2011, it was found that it can be possible to utilize car evacuation
after the disaster. Therefore it is necessary to consider varioustransportation modes for evacuation. To guide people with propertransportation modes and evacuation routes, first of all, we need tomonitor and understand the characteristics of regular traffic volume

Emergency

To monitor
traffic volume

To forecast
transportation
demands

To understandevacuation places
To understandtraffic capacities ofmain evacuation routes

To set evacuation
policies

Usual

Fig. 2. Concept of technologies to save lives from tsunami

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To provide proper
way to evacuate

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change, grasp where evacuation places are located, and recognize
traffic capacities of main evacuation routes. We also need to create
local evacuation policies.
Nowadays each municipality is required to prepare its
evacuation policies using various transportation modes and eachmunicipality has information of evacuation places including theircapacity. It is possible to observe people’s movement by analyzing
GPS data due to the recent rapid technology enhancement, andthere are various traffic simulation that can evaluate evacuation
scenarios to understand traffic capacities of main evacuationroutes. If we can prepare this knowhow from the usual stage,
we can estimate transportation demands at any time at any
place. Using all of those data, we can provide information about
appropriate routes and modes.
Research example: A basic study
to design tsunami evacuation policy
considering car use
Here, we would like to introduce one research example to help
municipal government create an evacuation policy including
evacuation by car, which we have been studying in Kochi
prefecture in Japan. First of all, we considered that a tsunami
evacuation policy should be created based on the following threestage concept;
1. To check if there is an area in a region that we should consider
car use for tsunami evacuation, and if “yes” then,
2. To calculate “Necessary Evacuation Velocity (NEV)” at eachpoints in the area, and if NEV exceeds evacuees’ walking velocity then,
3. To consider how to use car effectively in evacuation.
To check areas that need car evacuation, as a first stage, we
introduced an indicator of “buffer length (lb)” using peoples’ walking
evacuation velocity (vwalk) as well as tsunami minimum arrival
time (tmin), preparation time for evacuation (tp) and a factor ofsafety (α) as is shown in Fig. 3. If we know a border of expectedtsunami inundated area that is usually predicted by the government,
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we can define area where you can evacuate on foot (WEA: walking
evacuation areas) by drawing circles whose radius are lb from eachpoint on the boundary and drawing an envelope curve. If someareas are remained by excluding WEA from the expected tsunami
inundated area, we can call there areas as areas where car evacuation
should be considered (CEA: car evacuation areas). If you notice thatyou have CEA in your region, it means it is better to start to think
about car evacuation and to go to the next stage.
Area where available
to evacuate on foot(WEA)

Border of
expected tsunami
inundated area

Preparation time
Tsunamiminimum
arrival time

lb 
Are
a
sho eva wher
uld cua e ca
be tion r(CE consid
A)
ere
d

1

α

vwalk (tmin − tp)(α  1)

Factorof safety

Fig. 2. Concept of technologies to save lives from tsunami

The second stage is to calculate necessary evacuation velocity(NEV) in CEA. Figure 4 shows the basic idea of NEV. If you set a
horizontal axis as elapsed time after the earthquake and a verticalaxis as distance from evacuation starting point in an evacuationroute i, you can define a curve li(t) that denotes time evolution oftsunami arrival point. And if you know the evacuation goal andpreparation time then you can find a minimum slope to succeed in
evacuation; that should be NEV.
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Distance from evacuation
starting point
Evacuation goal
Maximum tsunami
arrival point (Li)

Necessary
Evacuation
Velocity

Tsunami arrival point(l i (t))

00Preparation time

Elapsed time after
the earthquake (t)Fig. 4. The basic idea of necessary evacuation velocity

More precisely, if we define I as a set of all routes from a point in
the expected tsunami inundated area to safe places, candidates of
NEV in route i (эI) vi is illustrated as:(1)
There should be an ideal way and a practical way to select NEV.
The ideal way can be shown as:(2)
And the practical way can be shown as:
needed

=m ax
>

( )

,w here=a rg min(3)

Here, we chose the practical way because the ideal way is toocomplicated and hard to calculate in the reality for local municipality. Thenif you can calculate NEVs in various point in an area, you can illustrate“tsunami risk contour” from the viewpoint of NEV (Figure 5). The concept
was first proposed by So et al. (2010) and Daganzo et al. (2011).
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Area where NEV exceeds
37m/minPopulation (10m mesh)：1.0 -1.0：1.0 -2.0：2.0 -2.0 [person]

45

20

37

35 ：NEV (m/min)and
its measuring point
37 ：Risk contour

Fig. 5. Tsunami risk contour

When defining people’s walking evacuation velocity as 37m/
min then we can know where is really dangerous and evacuation
policy for car evacuation is needed as the area inside the tsunami risk
contour of 37m/min.
The third stage is to consider how to use car effectively in
evacuation. Here we would like to suggest an index that would
illustrate the severity of car evacuation, which we called “an index
of minimum required number in one car.” We defined this index
by dividing a number of people that need car evacuation (P) by
a number of cars that can go out of the tsunami inundated area
within the time limit (Ncar) as is shown below. To calculate Ncar,
one lane traffic capacity in evacuation q and a total number oflanes that cross the border of expected tsunami inundated area(nlane).
(4)
If c exceeds 5.0 (regular loading capacity of a car), it is notrealistic to apply car evacuation and it is necessary to consider otherevacuation facilities, such as evacuation towers, evacuation steps on106Plenary Reports

hills and so on. And if c is lower than 1.0, it is possible to apply car
evacuation without any policy. However, if c is between 1.0 and 5.0
then it is necessary to set an evacuation policy to promote sharing
car with neighbors.
1. To verify calculation results,
2. To combine with usual traffic volume monitoring,
3. To arrange traffic capacity data,
4. To develop algorithm to lead evacuees (to provide informa
tion to car navigation systems or smartphones),
5. MeteorogicalTo collaborate with ICT-related entities, and6. To communicate with residents, to arrange evacuation plan,and to conduct evacuation drills.
Remaining tasks for realization
This research focused mainly on how to set a car evacuation policy.
To realize car evacuation in practice it is inevitable to consider
following remaining tasks by discussing with real municipal
government.
Other related important topics
There are also other important topics for research and methodology
development. For example, this research activity introduced above
has been discussed mainly for residents. It is obvious that mostof the areas inundated by tsunami disaster are located on coastal
areas where lots of strangers visit. Therefore it is also necessary
to develop evacuation route guidance for strangers that don’tknow the area well. Pre-disaster road network reinforcement forevacuation should be also essential. Even if there is an excellent
route navigation system, it is not workable under the unreliable road
network. Those examples are direct measures to reduce victims.
Furthermore, of course there are some indirect measures. We
need to design several evacuation scenario to analyze the effectivityof above-mentioned evacuation policy and the direct measures. Also
promotion of housing relocation to higher places to reduce damageof tsunami disaster.
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We hope this series of transportation management measureagainst natural disasters should be practically implemented
immediately and introduced to the real municipalities.

1.
2.

References
So, S. and Daganzo, C.: Managing evacuation routes, Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 44, p. 514-520, 2010.
Daganzo, C.F. and So, S.K.: Managing evacuation networks,
Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 45, p.1424-1432, 2011.

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Yu Maemura
Department of Civil Engineering, the University of Tokyo

Development aid agendas
in Japan: challenges
in sustainable development
The following presentation provides a brief introduction anddiscussion of the challenges faced by Japan and the international
community in its utilization of Official Development Assistance(ODA) as a tool for achieving sustainable development. Domestic
policy details on the priority issues that address sustainability
are presented, as well as a discussion on the evolution ofsustainability as a global agenda within the development aid
community. Examples of rising challenges in the financing andmanagement of projects as a consequence of the sustainability
agenda are introduced before the presentation concludes witha short discussion of the future of sustainable development inJapan and the international community.

Introduction: Moving from the MDGs to SDGs
The international community has learned a multitude of lessons
as it strives to meet the challenge of incorporating social,economic, and environmental aspects into holistic approaches tosustainability. As a result, the 8 Millennium Development Goals
set to be achieved until 2015 have expanded into the 17 Sustainable
Development Goals set for 2030 (Fig. 1). It is against this backdropthat members of the international community strive independently(locally) and collaboratively (globally) to attain the politically bold
yet scientifically and technologically feasible solutions to lastingsustainable development.
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Official Development Assistance as a tool
for attaining the SDGs
The Government of Japan disburses a considerable amount offunding to partner countries with developing and transition
economies to help address their development challenges. Over the
past decade the Japanese tax-payers have contributed an average ofapproximately 10 billion USD in Official Development Assistance(ODA) funding every year (Fig. 1, taken from the Ministry of Foreign
Affairs Japan — MOFA)1. Official policy on such ODA is stipulated
in the Development Cooperation Charter, drafted by the Ministry ofForeign Affairs Japan.

Fig. 2. ODA spending by the Government of Japan over 10 years (from MOFA, 2015)1

In contrast, the Russian Federation reported approximately 1.1 billion USD of ODA in 2015110

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Fig. 2. ODA spending by the Government of Japan over 10 years (from MOFA, 2015)

In the Development Cooperation Charter (2015), the Governmentof Japan outlines its objectives for ODA. The main objective isfor “securing peace, stability and prosperity of the international
community” (p. 1), within priority areas which specifically include“building a sustainable and resilient international community”(p. 6, emphasis added). Citizens must then ask, what exactly doesa “sustainable and resilient international community” entail?
The charter further breaks down global challenges relating tosustainability into the following issues:• Environmental issues & climate change• Water issues• Natural disasters• Food crises and hunger• Energy issues
These issues are outlined at the level of policy, but for actual
funding, ODA resources are classified into a narrower range offunctions. This is due to the fact that OECD countries have beenusing the “Rio markers” to classify funding for environmental
purposes since 1998. For Japan, approximately 40-50% of ODA
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funding is tagged with the Rio markers and is thus classified as“environmental aid”. Environmental aid constitutes ODA funds
that are used specifically to address key environmental issues. In
other words, ODA can be marked as addressing one or more of thefollowing issues: biodiversity; climate change adaptation; climatechange mitigation; and desertification. The operative words in theconditions of environmental aid are the marking of “one or more”
of these environmental issues. As will be described later on, thiscreates complications for process overall.
Sustainability as an Agenda
While a strong movement is now in place that has helped theglobal community understand the urgent need for sustainability,
development professionals and scientists did not always enjoy thislevel of support. The rise of sustainability as a global issue andagenda is no timid feat.
The following figures are the result of an N-gram analysis
conducted on a free platform provided by Google (Google Books
Ngram Viewer). This tool allows one to search for n-grams (acollection of n number of words) within an enormous corpus madeup of the contents of books within the company’s digital archives.
0.00500%
0.00450%
0.00400%
0.00350%
0.00300%
0.00250%
0.00200%
0.00150%0.00100%
0.00050%0.00000%
1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Fig. 3. Prevalence of development keywords from 1980–2008

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A query of development key-words can reveal the shifting trends
about the priority issues being mentioned and therefore consideredwithin written documents over time.
Fig. 3 shows the growing emphasis of AIDS and HIV from the‘80s to mid ‘90s as the global community came together to respondto the HIV epidemic in regions such as south-east Asia and subSaharan Africa. Relative mentions of AIDS and HIV seem to havepeaked in the mid ‘90s as the graph reveals a steady decline in their
mentions in the 2000s. In contrast, a steady increase in the mentionsof sustainability can be observed all throughout this period.
Although there seems to be a steady decline in the mentionsof AIDS and HIV in written texts, there is still an overwhelming
emphasis on these issues within all texts contained within the corpus.
The dominance of these two issues prevents us from observing someof the smaller differences and observations contained within otherissues that congregate at the bottom of Fig. 3. In order to focus inon the key-words hidden here, the keywords “AIDS”, “HIV”, and“Sustainability” were removed from the query to reveal the relative
differences in mentions among the terms: infant mortality, poverty
reduction, primary education, gender equality, and maternal health,resulting in Fig. 4 below.
0.00300%

0.00250%

0.00200%

0.00150%0.00100%

0.00050%0.00000%

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Fig. 4. Prevalence of development key words excluding “Aids” and “HIV”

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The following figure (Fig. 5) places the keyword “sustainability”
back into the query, and adds some more key issues such as “economic
growth”, “family planning”, as well as environmental issues such as“climate change”, “biodiversity”, “desertification”, and “clean energy”.
What is interesting to note in Figure 5 is the relative declineof mentions of “economic growth” after 1995, while environmental
issues such as climate change, biodiversity, and sustainability catchup in terms of the number of mentions. “Family planning” appears
to have peaked in the ‘70s as various governments transitioned fromfocusing on population control to the consideration of reproductive
rights and health.
The shifting figures outlined in Fig. 3-5 are a simplified yet
intuitive reflection of the fluid nature of social transitions acrossglobal agendas. As countries, governments, and the development
community identify emerging key issues, resources will again shift
as priorities and challenges evolve for people and communities.
When development agendas and priority areas shift, institutions
and organizations must then fight for public sentiment, support,
funding, and talent to address these issues. In like manner,sustainability is an agenda that has taken form for the international
community.
0.00160%
0.00140%0.00120%0.00100%
0.00080%0.00060%
0.00040%0.00020%0.00000%

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Fig. 5. Shifting prevalence of development keywords since 1950

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Challenges for Sustainability within ODA
Financing challenges
Fluctuations among multiple agendas have a direct impact on theinstitutional policies, procedures, and practices of organizations
tasked to implement development projects. Institutions within thedevelopment community are in many ways at fierce competition
with one another for the limited resources and public sentimentthat can be focused on address global issues. Furthermore, organizations are often evaluated based on their ability to attain goals, objectives, and metrics that are indicative of progress within agendas.
Within the international community, for example, countries canboast their dedication and progress towards sustainable development by announcing their financial commitments to these areas.
Unfortunately, as countries try to reveal strong commitments
and shed positive light on their activities, OECD studies have revealed that an immediate issue arises concerning double accounting. Across OECD countries, 60% of global desertification activities
were also marked as biodiversity related. In addition, a total of 3.9
billion USD of global aid for climate change was marked both as
mitigation- and adaptation-related finance through the use of the
Rio markers. In Japan, this amounted to 300 million out of 7 billion
USD being double-accounted (OECD, 2012).
Project management and evaluation challenges
In addition to financing challenges of environmental projects that
aim to contribute to sustainable development, the project-level ramifications of complications associated with sustainability are evenmore apparent. Double-accounting and financing consequences are
relatively easy to identify and understand. However, practitioners
involved in managing and implementing development projects arewell aware of the fact that evaluating the “value” of a project and its“sustainability” (which are not the same) is a much more arduous
challenge.
Through interviews with development industry stakeholders
and government officials, our research group has identified a lack ofconsensus on sustainability issues which challenges project man115

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Fig. 6. Logical framework for project management

agers. These challenges are apparent in the literature as well. For
example, certain projects have been labelled a “failure” for missing
benchmarks developed to measure the Millennium Development
Goals. Countries such as Burkina Faso are considered a “failure” interms of achieving the MDG of universal primary education, despite the fact that it displayed the fastest enrolment increase within
the region (Clemens et al., 2007). Where any practitioner would acknowledge significant growth as an indicator of success, idealistic
policy goals can neglect the complexities associated with fundamental development challenges such as universal primary education.
These evaluation challenges are of course in no way unique tosustainability, but are rather the product of fundamental challenges
that have long plagued evaluators and project managers (cf. Maemura, 2016). If one were to utilize the logical framework for project
management (referred to as the Project Design Matrix in the Japanese development industry), projects can be organized into: inputs,
activities, outputs, outcomes, and impacts/goals. A means-ends approach (use inputs and activities as a means to produce outputs,
which act as a means to produce outcomes, and so on) of this natureorganizes specific inputs and activities into higher-order objectives(Fig. 6).
Project managers, evaluators, and analysts see that the uncertainties arise as soon as one attempts to connect inputs and activities with outputs and outcomes, while even the best policy makers
can often only hope that impacts will be made that are consistent
with original policy goals and priorities.
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Sustainability for whom and for what?
What essentially can be seen at occurring within projects and programs, is that stakeholders view sustainability through a lens situated at the level in which they are involved. Fundamental gaps inunderstanding of project goals and the concept of sustainability arethus persistent across the industry where multiple organizations
must collaborate to plan, implement, and evaluate initiatives. Withvaried roles, responsibilities, and organizational interests, these gaps
invariably affect the manner in which sustainability is perceived.
A simple way of framing the complexity associated with sustainability is to ask the question: Sustainability for whom?
When considering this question, one must recognize that various
stakeholder interests add levels of complexity to the situation. For example, countries on the receiving end of aid programs often aim to achievesustainability in terms of resources management, financing, or economic
growth. Consultants and experts that implement development projects
must consider how their technological knowledge is contributing to development goals, and organize their projects to ensure their activities are
sustainable from an organizational perspective. Donor agencies alone
can have multiple perspectives on sustainability: are diplomatic and political interests of peace and stability being served from a long-term andsustainable perspective? Can the program be repeated and support itself
in terms of financial sustainability? Are the impacts contributing directly to environmental sustainability? As one can see, stakeholder interests
play an enormous role in shaping our understanding of sustainability,
yet rarely are such realities taken into account when presenting the public with descriptions and definitions of “sustainable development”.
The Sustainability Agenda and Beyond
By recognizing sustainability as an established agenda within theinternational community, we possess a useful lens into the fluid andevolving landscape of global challenges that have shaped development agendas over the past three to four decades. Furthermore,
a deeper appreciation for the conceptual complexity of sustainability
allows one to grasp the consequent challenges of gathering finite
resources (input and activities) to produce measurable outputs that
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contribute to sustainable impacts. The 17 sustainable development
goals in themselves suggest a bare minimum of 17 approaches orframeworks for the task of measuring or monitoring sustainability.
Going forward, countries with leadership roles in the international
community such as Russia and Japan must continue improve their coordination and knowledge systems (Cash et al., 2003; Mitchell, 2003)
through programs like the Students and Researchers Exchange Program in Sciences. Global citizens must learn from one another and effectively utilize their finite resources for achieving the SDGs. Decision
makers and policy makers must identify comparative advantages, locate synergies, and eliminate redundancies. Scientists must continue topresent facts that create evidence-based solutions for sustainability, as
well as preparing to identify the next fundamental issue that challenges
our planet so as to influence and create future agendas. It may seem a
distance future for many, but scientists must ask themselves, what challenges will a sustainable planet face, and what will the next agenda be?

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

References
Cash, D. W., Clark, W. C., Alcock, F., Dickson, N. M., Eckley,N., Guston, D. H., Jäger, J. & Mitchell, R. B. (2003). Knowledge
systems for sustainable development. Proceedings of the National
Academy of Sciences, 100 (14), 8086-8091.
Clemens, M. A., Kenny, C. J., & Moss, T. J. (2007). The trouble with the MDGs: confronting expectations of aid and development
success. World development, 35(5), 735–751.
Maemura, Y. (2016). Impartiality and Hierarchical Evaluationsin the Japanese Development Aid Community. American Journal of
Evaluation, 1098214015626795.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs Japan, (2015). “Cabinet decisionon the Development Cooperation Charter”. http://www.mofa.go.jp/
files/000067701.pdf
Mitchell, R. B. (2003). Knowledge systems for sustainable development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100 (14),8086-8091.
OECD, (2012). Lessons in Linking Sustainability and Development.
Development Assistance Committee, OECD Publishing.
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Irina IVASHKINA, Boris KOCHUROV
Genplan Institute of Moscow, Institute of Geography Russian
Academy of Science

Cities of Baikal region:
environmental
challenges of spatial
development

INTRODUCTION
During the last 15 years, a process of intense development of suburbs
could be observed in large cities of Baikal Region, especially, in Irkutsk, Chita, Ulan-Ude. This process became one of the serious urban
planning problems and a new environmental challenge at the sametime. City inhabitants move to suburbs combining occupancy in thecity with the benefits of the rural lifestyle and better environmental
conditions. The main factors of suburban development include the increase in the automobilization and population mobility levels, a wider range of distance occupancy opportunities and environmentally
unfavorable living conditions in the city. It forms a significant traffic
flow from the city to the suburbs, worsens the conditions of transportavailability and creates environmental problems. In addition, current
cities face the shortage of lands, suitable for complex building development. The urban fabric is conducted, mainly, through spot development, worsening habitability conditions of the urban environment.
In current conditions of the persistent population drift awayfrom the northern territories of Russian Federation (Siberian and
Far Eastern regions), one of the main factors keeping people at thesame place is life quality, i.e. environmental suitability for comfort
living. Life quality is determined by people’s ability to use all theadvantages of the territory where they live: to get enough fresh air,to use recreational space, to have available dwellings, corresponding
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to their needs and financial state, to exist in a bright picturesqueenvironment of Baikal Region, to have a wide range of employment
opportunities, i.e. to live in a “friendly” urban environment.
Irkutsk city was affected by suburbanization more than any otherurban areas in Baikal Region. The solution of suburban environmental
problems is inseparably linked with environmental safety supportof Irkutsk, as living conditions in a city depend a lot on the stateof its surroundings [1]. The special attention in this paper is paid
to spatial development of Irkutsk. In 2016 year Genplan Instituteof Moscow took part in competition on working out of strategy ofspatial development of Irkutsk. Experts from St.-Petersburg, and also
local town-planners of Irkutsk were other participants.
Nowadays the top target of Irkutsk stable development is improvingof life quality by reducing harmful effects and improving environmental
conditions, natural and man-made risk management, urban planning anddesign with respect to ecology, smart transportation and mobility, green
industries and utilities. The residents of Irkutsk value unique naturallandscapes and built environment, architectural design of buildings
and spaces, stability and sustainability. A goal of urban planning is
synonymous with sustainable spatial development in that decisions
must not be made solely for an immediate result, but must be consideredin light of its cumulative, long-term effects. So the strategy of spatial
development of Irkutsk is working out for the period up to 2035 year.
According to the Russian legislation when we are preparing
strategy of spatial development and other urban planning documents,
the issues regarding the protection of the environment and naturemust be taken into consideration. For this purpose there are a numberof instruments laid down in various laws, which are integrated inplanning processes and approval procedures. The key part of spatial
strategy is the environmental assessment of Irkutsk city.
Urban-planning and environmental
issues of Irkutsk
Irkutsk is a large industrial, scientific, educational and cultural
center of Russia. It is a capital of Eastern Siberia and modern tradecenter, large transportation hub on the Trans Siberian railway.
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Fig. 1. Cultural, historical and architectural heritage of Irkutsk city

Airport of Irkutsk delivers passengers from Moscow to Vladivostok,
to international airports of Japan, China, and other countries. The
development of academic science in a city is connected with activity of
Irkutsk scientific center. There are nine research institutes of Russian
Academy of Science located in Irkutsk: the Institute of Geography, theEnergy System Institute, the Institute of Geochemistry, the Instituteof System Dynamics and Control Theory, the Earth’s Crust Institute,
the Solar-Terrestrial Physics Institute, the Institute of Chemistry, theLimnological Institute (formerly located on Lake Baikal’s shore) etc.
It goes without saying Irkutsk is a point of interest for tourists with
its numerous museums and old architecture. There are 1048 objectsof cultural heritage in the city [2]. Irkutsk has preserved its original
look, combining shine of church domes, beauty of merchants’ houses,
monumentality of modern buildings and constructions (Fig.1). The
majority of historical, architectural, cultural monuments, historically
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composed monuments have been preserved. The residents of Irkutsk
city want growth to be sustainable and in keeping with the characterof the community and Irkutsk’s sense of place.
The special topics are Irkutsk and Baikal. The lake Baikal is a worldwide
known and popular, and Irkutsk, 60 km from its banks, exploits the imageof “the city on Baikal”. Baikal does play the special role as a touristic
attractor: a tourist has arrived in Irkutsk with such an understanding andsees that he or she can take a bus and go directly to Baikal. The importanttask of stable urban development is how to keep tourists in a city for 5-7
days with only 1-day trip to Baikal. As is known Baikal Lake contains
one fifth of the whole world soft water: it is very important to protect theecosystem of lake by reduction of recreational pressure.
Despite exceptional natural surroundings, living in Irkutsk city
poses some ecological problems. So environmental assessment plays
a key role in urban planning. Ecological information system (EIS) is
an important base for correct decision making (Fig. 1). There are 4
main divisions in EIS:• Information about Environmental risk (Seismic intensity,
Flood, Landslides, Karst-suffosion process);• Zones with special limit for use (Sanitary protection zones,
Water protection zones, Zones of sanitary protection for sources of potable water, etc.);• Environmental conditions (Air pollution, Soil contamination,
Pollution of water Noise, vibration, etc.);• Sources of pollution (Industrial Plants and fabrics, Heating andPower Plants, Landfills and dumps, Utility facilities, Airports
and terminals).
The most important task in urban planning is to determine theenvironmental restrictions for long-term development of the city (Fig. 2)
The urban-planners prefer to use the results of comprehensive
assessment, reflected on special maps. We use some approaches for thispurpose. Ecological simulation (Fig. 3) is an essential tool to identify
problem’s areas, ranging territory on environmental quality, study
environmental requirements for long-term development of the city.
Especially high levels of air basin contamination are noted in winter —when the central heating system is overloaded and the atmosphere
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Fig. 2. Environmental restrictions for urban development

is not fully able to self-cleaning. The highest level of urban territory
contamination is seen, according to the wind rose, in the direction ofnorthwest to southeast. Emissions of fuel and energy enterprises make96% from the volume of stationary sources of emissions. Despite reducing
of industrial production in recent decades, intensity of influence of air
pollutants on Irkutsk citizens tends to grow. It is caused by increase of
number of wheeled transport (the annual tendency of increasing numberof cars takes place) and fuel and energy sector development. It results inredistribution of emissions density from specific (previously common forindustrial sector) to non-specific ones (fuel power industry and transport)with increase of common level of air pollution in the city [3].
The results of the comprehensive ecological assessment are shownon the Fig. 4. Cartography methods are based on the territorial landscapeconditions, results of environmental impact assessment (air pollution,soil contamination, noise and vibration, sanitary status) geochemical
rates, atmosphere self-cleaning potential. Quality characteristics
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are determined by empirical studying, mathematical simulation andexpert ranking of factors from minimal to maximal result. The darkcolor reflects the most serious environmental situation..
Strategy of 6 towns
The conception of spatial development of Irkutsk elaborated by Genplan
Institute of Moscow is based on strategy of 6 towns. Irkutsk is situatedon three rivers: Angara, Irkut, Ushakovka. The city proper lies on the
Angara River. The two main parts of Irkutsk are customarily referred
to as the “left bank” and the “right bank”, with respect to the flowof the Angara River. The Irkut River, from which the town takes its
name, is a smaller river that joins the Angara directly opposite the city.

Fig. 3. Ecological zoning of Irkutsk city and suburban areas according to the levels of air
pollution [2]. The levels of air pollution: 1 — the most high, 2 — high, 3 — medium, 4 — low,
5 — the lowest.

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Fig. 4. Comprehensive environmental assessment based on the measurement units

Another tributary is the Ushakovka
River. All these natural features
as well as railway and highways
cut the urban fabric. So Irkutsk
city is divided into 6 different
neighborhoods or local towns
with specific life and environment(fig.5): Central, Ushakovka, Irkutsk
II, Novo-Lenino, Hills, Kaisky Hill.
The results of the comprehensive
Fig. 5. Schematic view of 6 towns inside
ecological assessment are shown onof Irkutsk city
the Fig. 4. Cartography methods are
based on the territorial landscapeconditions, results of environmental impact assessment (air pollution,soil contamination, noise and vibration, sanitary status) geochemical
rates, atmosphere self-cleaning potential. Quality characteristics are
determined by empirical studying, mathematical simulation and expert
ranking of factors from minimal to maximal result. The dark color
reflects the most serious environmental situation.
Our researches have revealed that these towns have the individual
planning structure, environmental conditions, transport accessibility,
125The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environmentsocial infrastructure and as a result different life quality. For example
Central town is a historical and modern center of Irkutsk. Almost alladministrative buildings, theaters, museums, libraries are locatedhere. But the environmental situation is bad, the main negative factors
are high level of transport pollution and the lack of recreation space.
Town of Novo-Lenino is a modern Irkutsk, the problem of air pollution
produced by the biggest Novo-Irkutskaya thermal power station is theimportant environmental issue for this neighborhood [4].
Researches of the city environment included also sociologicalpoll of inhabitants in each neighborhood. Each neighborhood has
characteristics that make it special, which helps form its unique
identity and shapes each person’s connection to the broader
community. Sustaining character is vitally important to the residents
as it defines their individual neighborhood and community andcreates a quality of place like no other. In order to maintain character,
important identifying features must be protected and integrated into
urban-planning development for the period up to 2035 year (Table 1).
Table 1. Schematic view of 6 towns inside of Irkutsk city

#

Town

Main urbanplanning issues

Directions for sustainable

1.

CentralTraffic jams andgreat number ofcars, high level oftransport pollution,
noise of aviation,lack of green areas
and uncomfortablepublic spaces

Forming the natural frame andecological corridors, creation of
public spaces, revitalization ofriver valleys and forming a newquay along the Angara river.
Provide a continuum of land
uses that allow a variety of uses
and housing types to meet theneeds of the community while
ensuring the preservation ofneighborhood character in an
efficient manner.
Equal distribution of park
spaces, activities, and facilities
to meet the diversity of local
areas

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2.

Ushakovka The housing is
moral and physically old, bad public
transport. Sewage
treatment plants
require major repair or renovation.

Creation the connection with
Central town on the base of
ecological corridors of Angara
and Ushakovka rivers, reorganization of transport system, revitalization of precious industrial
build-up areas.
Encourage a variety of housing
types to meet the needs of residents of all ages and economic
abilities.
Provide for a safe and sustainable water supply that meetsthe current and future needs ofthe community.

3.

Irkutsk II

Environmental
situation is critical.
Law density ofwork places, badtransport accessibility, lack of theentertaining andrecreational objects. The cultural
life is absent.

Forming the new public center,
improving the connections with
Novo-Lenino neighborhood.
Provide a mix of housingthat meets the economic andlife-style needs for the diverse
population.

4.

NovoLenino

Poor social infrastructure, public
transport is insufficient, traffic jams,
law quality ofgreen areas. Parks
are absent. Environmentally poor
quality of air.

Preserving of natural stream inindividual sector.
A comprehensive network ofpaths and linear parks connecting all parts of the town
Enhance the integration of
cyclists and community public
transit services.

5.

Hills

The absence ofparking areas,
traffic jams, dirty
streets. The neighborhood that needmore playgrounds.

Protect existing neighborhood
identity and character.
Protection of specific hill relief
as a comfortable family neighborhoods with good ecology
and calm environment. Forming
the pedestrian connections.

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Preserving of the attractive
landscapes.
Provide for the safe access anduse of the pedestrian facilities
for users of all ages and abilities.
Conserve sensitive natural areas for aesthetic and ecological
purposes.
6.

KaiskyHill

Chaotic parking areas, uncomfortablepark zones, trafficjam, the absence of
places for kids

Forming of the linear public
space, improving of the integration of rail way and terminal.
Conserve sensitive natural areas for aesthetic and ecological
purposes.

Conclusion
The spatial development strategy produced by Genplan Institute of
Moscow outlines numerous initiatives that the city will undertaketo make Irkutsk a more sustainable city. Our goal is to stop of urban
sprawl and preserve the existing borders of city, to develop thebuilt-up areas and brown-fields. The city we need is compact where
accessibility is supported by a fine-grained block and street network
lined with buildings and facilities providing amenities and services
with a mix of uses and sizes. Schools are within walking distancefrom homes, offices are located no further than a few transit stops
away from homes. Shopping for daily necessities is within walking
distance of residential buildings and located near transit stops. The
amount and quality of walkable areas is essential to promoting
healthy behaviours and lifestyles, as well as reducing dependence
on motorized transport and introducing more green space in Irkutsk.
The topic of a natural (blue-green) frame plays a key role inthe concept of a spatial development of Irkutsk. This frame should
serve binding elements in development of all 6 towns. It is very
important to protect and conserve the natural resources of the area
in a manner that balances their ecologic, economic, and aesthetic
potentials to preserve natural features and ecosystems of Irkutsk
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city. The parks and gardens provide access to nature and recreation
for city dwellers. They serve important ecological functions. They
are accessible by all residents, including the elderly and persons
with disabilities. 10 recreational areas are recommended for
perspective use. These areas (parks, green corridors and waterbased recreation zones) will increase access to open space andthe water, help meet diverse recreational needs, and improve thequality of outdoor experiences.
The decision of transport problems is a key task for the majorityof large cities in Russia. Irkutsk we need should have an efficient andaffordable mobility systems that guarantee the right to mobility for all
and an equitable access to workplaces, places of worship and recreation,
culture and services. According to simulation of transportation flows
up to 2035 year our proposals concern the eco-friendly rail transport
development and construction of 5 new bridges that ensure theintegration and coordination of the neighborhood transportation
systems with the city’s facilities and modes of transportation.
So well-planned city of Irkutsk will allow all residents theopportunity to have high quality of urban environment, safe, healthy,
and productive lives.
References
State report «About environmental status and environmental
protection in Irkutsk region in 2014». — Irkutsk: Forward, 2015.
328 p. [in Russian].
2. Atlas of development of Irkutsk — Irkutsk: Publishing house of
Institute of geography of V.B. Sochava of the Siberian Branch of theRussian Academy of Science, 2011. 131 p. [in Russian].
3. 	Ecological safety of a city of Irkutsk: geographical aspects/
Godvinsky I.G., Zabortseva T.I., Stupina N.S. — Irkutsk: Publishinghouse of Institute of geography of V.B.Sochava of the Siberian
Branch of the Russian Academy of Science, 2013. 129 p. [in Russian].
4. Verhozina E.V., Safarov A.S., Makuhin V. L, Verhozina V. A.
Influence of emissions of New-Irkutsk thermal power station on air
pollution of Irkutsk / Geoecology, engineering geology, hydrogeology,
geocryology, 2016, №1, P. 50-55 [in Russian].
1.

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Diana DUSHKOVA
Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University,

The role of ecosystemservices in reductionof health risks in cities:
cases from Germany

INTRODUCTION
Today, over half of humanity lives in towns and cities, and by 2030,
this number will swell to 60–75% [6, 14]. The problems caused by rapid
process of urbanization are enormous and varied: together with theincreased concentrations of pollution and land transformation in theurban core and periphery, by intensification of climate change they
threaten human health. However, consequences of these interrelated
processes and the risks and hazards that they pose to both humanwell-being and ecosystems remain underexplored. The nexus between
ecosystems and environmental health can be good explained throughthe concept of ecosystem services [11]. A term of ecosystem services
refers to the conditions and processes through which ecosystems, andthe species that make them up, sustain and fulfil human life [4, 10, 11].
Ecosystem services are based on ecological functions that incorporate
fundamental ecosystem supporting services, but with benefits realized
as regulating services, i.e. services which maintain environmental
quality (e.g. waste assimilation), provisioning services (e.g. the supplyof natural products such as food) and cultural services (e.g. settings
for recreation and various non-use social or cultural values) [2, 17].
As the benefits that people get from nature, ecosystem services contribute to human health and well-being making human life possible
and worth living [11]. In this regard, the fundamental importance of
ecosystem services (ES) for human well-being and everyday life brings
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Fig. 1. Conceptual model of integrating ecosystem services with human health and well-being

together the environmental and socio-economic context of this relationship that occurs in production services, human health, good social
relations, safety etc. (Fig. 1).
While some progress has been made in the research on ES [6, 7,
8, 11, 13, 14, 17], the links between ES and human wellbeing are still
not well understood, and links to reduction of environmental and human health risks in cities even less so. Although ecosystem services
are recognised as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessmentin the huge amount of research [14], still lots of countries did not incorporated them into ecological risk assessment practice in a generalway. Although the importance of ecosystem services in human healthand well-being is worldwide recognised [11, 17, 18, 22], the debate inwhich way and amount they comprises human well-being in Russia
is still on-going in the literature. However, there has been a growth
in interdisciplinary science and international joint projects on ES andtheir contribution in supporting human resilience [7, 15, 19]. The paper
presents the results of one of such projects conducted by Departmentof Environmental Management of the Moscow State University andDepartment of Geography of the Humboldt University of Berlin in theframework of the research grant “Landscape and human-wellbeing:
identification, assessment, and communication in the field of ecosys131

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tem services” (2014–2016) supported by the Parliament of Berlin. The
paper aims to answer a question how the ecosystems and human healthin the case study regions are interlinked. It illustrates how changes inland use and climate resulted in high level of environmental risks incities can affect health directly, and which indirect impacts on humanhealth can be observed there. The paper also try to explore more directly the ways in which the condition of ecosystems and the health ofurban populations are linked, and what benefits could be obtain fromthe ecosystem services.
The paper uses the WHO’s definition of human health as “a state ofcomplete physical, mental and social well-being” [22]. The term of environmental risk was derived from [5, 21] and means both natural disasters (e.g. flooding, storms, fires etc.) and man-made risks (e.g. collapsing ecosystems, freshwater shortages, nuclear accidents etc.) that havepotentially negative consequences for human beings. Primary (fieldresearch, semi-structured interviews with citizens and experts, andparticipative observation in case study regions) and secondary sources(literature review, regional statistics) were gathered. The informationfrom secondary sources was verified during the field research in Leipzig and Berlin in 2013-2016.
Study design
Study area
Located in East Germany and being a capital of the country, Berlin(together with Hamburg, Munich, Cologne) refers to Germany’s four
major cities with more than a million inhabitants. The City of Leipzig is one of the Germany’s 15 urban agglomerations with more than
500,000 inhabitants. The both cities underwent a severe shrinkage
phase after reunification in 1990, and refer now to the fastest re-growing cities in Germany. As a consequence of the German renunciationin 1990, a structural change in urban land use and built-up structures
occurred in the both cities. Additionally, a broad urban restructuring
process has been underway since 2000, characterized by different processes of urbanization, transformation in land use, and new concepts(also environmental oriented) implemented in the programs of urban
planning in Leipzig and Berlin [1, 16, 20].
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Table 1. Socio-environmental indicators for Leipzig [1, 16]

Indicators

Leipzig

BerlinPopulation in 2015

560,472 inh.

3,520,031 inh.

Area in 2014297.38 km²

891,68 km²

Number of city
districts

10

12

Population density

1,900 inh./km²

3,948 inh./km²

Unemployment rate
in 2014

9.4%

9.2%

Geoposition /coordinates

51° 19’ N, 12° 23’ E

52° 31’ N, 13° 24’
E

Climatea humid continental
with warm summers
and no dry season
and with mild to cold
winters

temperatecontinental withwarm summers
and cool winters

Altitude

113 m

36 m

Annual precipitation

595 mm/a

570 mm/a

Averagetemperature

18.1°C in July, -0.3°C
in January

18°C in July, -1°C
in January

Forest area in 201425.81 km² (7%)

163.64 km² (18.4%)

Area of public green
spaces

93.65 m² per capita

37.84 m² percapitaThe case study regions are situated in a lowland area and a rather small amount of forests and semi-natural area (7% in Leipzig and18,4% in Berlin, see Table 1) around the two cities. In contrary to thisindicator, Leipzig has a higher rate of public green space (93.65 m² percapita) in comparison to Berlin (37.84 m² per capita). The region has atemperate (Berlin) / humid (Leipzig) continental climate with an average annual precipitation ranging from 595 mm in Leipzig to 570 mm
in Berlin. The average annual temperature is quiet similar in the bothcities (near to 18 °C in July, -0…1-°C in January).
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Contrary to the USA, the UK, the Netherlands, Germany still does
not have generally applicable guidelines for the implementation of ecosystem services approaches for urban landscape planning [7]. However,the Saxonian city of Leipzig and the capital of Germany — city of Berlin are highly suited for this study because the governance structuresof city development and nature protection often apply the principles of
the urban ecosystems services concept as it will be shown in the paper.
Material and methods
In general, the methodological approach considered here assumes recently
developed conceptual frameworks in the literature on ecosystem services [11,17, 18, 22]. In line with [14] this paper considers that adoption of ecosystemservices as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value ofrisk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk
to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating
those risks. According to this approach [22], ecological risk assessment derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure andprocesses), and based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. The
project includes the elaboration and testing of an interdisciplinary set of criteria and indicators, based on experiences from various European cities [8].
It comprises criteria to evaluate ecological and social issues regarding urban
ecosystem services (and green spaces among them) and especially how they
can contribute to mitigate environmental and health risks for urban population. The selection of indicators consists of those indicators for which dataof the actual situation and potential of changes are available (e.g. secondary
statistics data from regional Environmental and human health reports wereverified during the field research and nature observation in the case study
region). These indicators included: extensive and intensive land use and itschange, use of urban green spaces; air, water and soil quality, measured by
the possibility of contamination on the site; biodiversity characteristics (diversity of species, structural variety etc.); climate regulation services andcultural services (recreational potential, indicators of mental and physicalhealth). Methodical approach used in this research were also adopted from
[2] that established methods of environmental damage assessment for the
purposes of human health analysis as the contamination of land presenting a significant risk to human health. Conceptual model of integrating
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ecosystem services with human health and well-being implemented in thisresearch is based on research of [3, 7, 8, 9] and presented below (Fig. 1).
Methodically, both primary (field research, semi-structured interviews with citizens and experts, and participative observation in casestudy regions) and secondary (literature review, reports of City administrations, environmental and health statistics) sources were gathered.
The information from secondary sources was verified during the fieldresearch in Leipzig and Berlin in 2013–2016 and supplemented by thesemi-structured interviews with citizens and experts as well as questionnaire surveys on perception of public green spaces among urban
population of Berlin and Leipzig.
Results and discussion
On-going transition in land use, air, water and soil pollution together
with the global processes of climate change are resulting in more unpredictable weather patterns, sea-level rise and more frequent and extreme storms [5, 14]. In this context, the regulating services provided
by ecosystems are critical for climate change adaptation and disasterrisk reduction [2, 13]. Examples of these services include climate andwater regulation, protection from natural hazards such as floods andavalanches, water and air purification, carbon sequestration, and disease and pest regulation [8, 11]. These services determine the central
role of ecosystem management in climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction as shown below. The results presented here arepart of the research on the interaction between environmental hazards (e.g. heat waves — urban heat island, floods, and airborne pollutants) and urban population of Leipzig and Berlin. The major goal wasto understand this relation by analysis of assessment of the impacts
that these hazards have on citizens and urban landscapes areas.
Urban heat effect and air pollution
The phenomenon of urban heat island is characterised from [18] as aclimatic feature for a city with 1 million people or more in that theannual (surface and air) temperature of the urban area can be 1-3°C
warmer than the surrounding region. Some publications show theresults of temperature difference up to 7°C [5, 6, 11, 21]. A great num135

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ber of publications [9, 12, 15, 20, 22] illustrate that human health andwell-being are negatively affected by rising outdoor temperaturesdescribing direct effects such as heat cramps, heat edema (swelling),
heat syncope (fainting) or heat exhaustion and heat stroke that cancause organ damage and death.
It is broadly recognized that the urban heat island has both a beneficial and a detrimental bioclimatic impact on human health [3, 9,
11, 22]. Thus, its positive side can be shown through a shorteningof the winter frost season and a reduction of the number of heatingdays, in which air pollutant emissions decrease. In addition, the riskof cold-related illnesses and deaths through a shortening of cold winter period is reduced that we can observe in the last 10 years in both
Leipzig and Berlin. However, such shortened frost seasons and milder
winters have initiated an extension of the vegetation period and thus
the pollen season, which have increased level of allergies and caused
the changes in the allergen spectrum. Nevertheless, the urban overheating in the summer months has negative effects for the humanorganism when high air temperatures, low wind intensities and spatially diverse radiation conditions lead to heat stress also during daytime and nights in the summer. Heat waves are a special problem incities of Berlin and Leipzig, as buildings and impervious areas heatup over days, store this heat and release it with a delay. Both cities
distinguish themself with the outstanding mixture of developed andgreen areas through a mosaic of different micro-scale climates andthus large differences in the thermal conditions in a small space.
How can we effectively mitigate the urban heat island effect andair pollution in cities? Based on the concept of ecosystem services,
green infrastructure in the form of shade trees can create a seasonal(up to three months in temperate zones) cooling effect and contributeto local climate regulation [20]. Green space (urban parks, squiresetc.) can prevent the absorption of radiation by surfaces and the release of pollutants as well as cool the air through evapotranspiration.
In the same time, the relative lack of green space (and water features)contributes to the urban heat island [3, 8]. Our results show the reduction of local temperature by urban green (especially in the formof trees) by 1.4-2.8°C in Leipzig and Berlin. It helps to minimize and136

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prevent health issues associated with heat (e.g. blood pressure, cardio-vascular diseases, dehydration) but also other associated healthproblems such as skin cancer as tree shade directly protects individuals from UV radiation. Furthermore, the green spaces within theurban green infrastructure can reduce the transport of air pollutants
to an urban centre worsened by urban heat island [20].
It is widely understood that urban green spaces have a naturalability not only to reduce local air and ground temperature but also
to filter pollution from the air [3, 11, 18, 22].
The problem of ambient air pollution is of a great importance forboth Berlin and Leipzig as tens of thousands of their citizens die prematurely each year due to acute air pollution and that high summer
temperatures lead to increased illnesses, hospitalizations and deaths.
Common air pollutants in Leipzig and Berlin include particulate matter (PM), sulphur dioxide (SO2), ground-level ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). There is correlation between
high level of air pollution and reduced lung function that can worsen
health problems such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and cardiovascular disease [1, 16, 20].
Urban vegetation in assemblages which fix filtered substances canimprove the air quality by filtering particulate matter (PM10), nitrogenoxides (NO2) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). The study results show thatgreen roofs in Berlin (together with brownfield reuse and villa densification) can reduce air pollution through PM10 up to 53% in compare
to the city areas where roof greening not possible or not implemented.
The finding of this research stated that on average the daytime airtemperature of parks were an estimated 1–30C cooler than built-up(non-green) urban areas both of Leipzig and Berlin. The greening ofstreets in Berlin and Leipzig reduces the transport emissions up to35%; green spaces (especially under trees) hold up to 60% of dust.
As the German population ages and extreme heat waves in bothstudied areas become more common across the country, urban green
spaces can provide essential, natural protection. Thus, as a provider of
livelihoods to healthy environments, urban green in Berlin and Leipzig contributes to reducing up to 25% of morbidity from respiratory
diseases: citizens, especially children, from the districts with a higher
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Fig. 2. Berlin: buildings with green roofs in Leizig (left) and Berlin (right)

Fig. 3. Green walls in Berlin (left) and Leipzig (right)

rate of green area show a lower level of respiratory diseases — asthma,
bronchitis — compared to their neighbours from green-poor districts.
The results of our interviews with citizens of Berlin and Leipzig clearlyshow the therapeutic function of urban green for mental health (leading e.g. to stress reduction, operating as a source of inspiration) and its
contribution to ecological education and sense of place among citizens.
The assessment of green infrastructure in Berlin and Leipzig hasrevealed that it was established not only as random mosaic of different green spaces but also as a whole complex of interconnected
green infrastructure elements. Such elements include green corridors, roofs, ecological axes along city roads and river embankments
and resource saving technologies. An increase in green areas in oldcity districts is surely restricted by the heritage status but cases from
Leipzig and Berlin present it is also possible through the introduction of new technologies such as vertical and container gardening,
greening roofs (Fig. 2) and walls (Fig. 3).
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Green buildings (e.g. urban buildings with an exterior vegetatedroof or wall) can greatly contribute to reduction of environmental
and human health risks caused by heat stress and air pollution [3, 7].
While green roofs and walls may not be as effective as street trees
in improving air quality, they are a useful alternative in areas where
there is limited capacity for tree planting — especially in the city
centers of the both case study areas.
Which effects it brings for the future city development, e.g. in theadaptation to the climate change? For example, the “living walls”(Fig. 3) provide local cooling and significantly reduce both wall surface and adjacent air temperatures. The results of this research beingin line with [8, 20] show that during the warmest periods, air temperatures were 3°C cooler in the presence of the vegetated wall andsurface temperatures behind the vegetation were as much as 9.9°C
cooler than the brick wall in both Leipzig and Berlin, even thoughboth walls were irrigated at the same rate. There is some evidence
that green walls in street canyons are more effective than green roofs
for mitigating in-canyon air pollution and may perform better thantrees in areas where wind flow is reduced [3]. We have investigatedthe beneficial effects of plants of the green walls on the human wellbeing: 1) local cooling (air temperatures is 3°C cooler in the presenceof the vegetated wall); 2) improved energy efficiency (up to 10-20%);3) aesthetic improvements; 4) building structure protection (limit
thermal fluctuations through additional level); 5) improved indoor
air quality, reduced noise; 6) increased biodiversity; 7) marketing potential; 8) improved health (physiological and psychological benefits).
Solar panels on the city buildings (Fig. 4) can also reduce bothglobal warming and urban heat island. The implementation of solar panels is good both for producing energy (and hence contributing to a decrease of greenhouse gas emissions) and for decreasing
the urban heat island, especially in summer, when it can be a threat
to health [7]. The studies of [3] have stated that in future climate
conditions, solar panels would also help to decrease the demand of
air-conditioning. Alongside with the other deployment of renewableenergy systems, solar panels are one of the main adaptation strategies of living in city.
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Fig. 4. Solar roofs in Berlin (left) and Leipzig (right)

Flooding
Severe floods with devastating impacts on their citizens, economic
activities and the environment affect Germany every year, and due
to climate change are likely to become more frequent and devastating (Fig. 5). Major factors that increase flood damage refer toextreme weather events and changes in land use, especially increased concentration of assets in urbanized areas on floodplains orprocesses of deforestation. In addition, changes in the agriculturallandscape, increased sealing of drainage basins through urbanization, and control work in river valleys (such as riverbed narrowing
and straightening) have contributed to an increased threat of urban
floods. Especially typical for urbanized areas are urban floods resulting from intensive rainfall that exceeds the capacity of urban
sewage systems [1].
Situated at the intersection of three rivers (the Weisse Elster,
Pleisse, Parte), Leipzig has always been vulnerable to danger of flooding. As consequences, 404 households were damaged by the flooding in 2002, more than 20.000 inhabitants were affected by flood in
2013, total economic damage costs were 11.6 (2002) and 15 billion
Euro (2013) [1, 7].
To fight this danger, the river beds have been expanded and mechanical flood control and diversion systems have been installed. However, simply focusing on physical infrastructure was not enough tosolve the problem of floods. A more efficient way of adapting can be
developed through the ecosystem-based approach. Such approach wasused in the framework of the above mentioned project conducted to140

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Fig. 5. Flooding in Saxony in 2013: the railway line from Magdeburg to Leipzig was flooded(left), a resident stands at his property on a flooded street in Grimma by Leipzig (right)

gether with the department of landscape ecology of HU Berlin and thedepartment of computational ecology of the Helmholtz center for environmental research. Flood risk assessment in the region of Leipzig wasdone, which focuses on conceptual and system dynamics modeling to
mitigate urban flood issues (Flood Control Management in Leipzig).
So, flood mitigation measures should be based on following pillars tokeep damage levels as low as possible and to distribute the burden
fairly: 1) integration of flood prevention into land use development;2) green rivers — more space for rivers in their natural conditions; 3)“stretchable“ flood plains; 4) connection of landscape protection andflood protection concepts; 5) no new buildings in flood prevention areas; 6) monitoring and modeling.
For purpose of technical flood protection, in Saxony over half abillion euro has been invested in technical flood protection since
the catastrophic flooding of 2002. Approximately one billion euro isplanned for concrete walls and dikes, etc., earmarked for investment
by 2020. Throughout Germany, two thirds of the former floodplains
have been lost to dikes and other flood protection measures. That
is why natural flood protection by providing rivers with more space
is of a great importance. First, it includes such measures as dikerelocation that offers the opportunity of combining sustainable andmodern flood protection with nature conservation objectives andhence of safeguarding resources for future generations [8]. Also theforest restoration and especially increase of diversity species cancontribute to mitigate flood or consequences that will be caused by141

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them: it was found that plants in communities with only one single
plant species (monocultures) were less able to cope with flooding
compared to plants grown in mixtures totalling 10–12 species.
Provision and control of the quantity and quality of water can bealso fulfilled through urban green infrastructure [3]. Here, green
infrastructure is important to water quantity for its ability to facilitate the recharge of groundwater stores and control surface runoff
volumes. Green infrastructure supports water quality through its
ability to filter pollutants that fall with the rain and also pollutants that are collected in surface runoff. Urban green infrastructure(especially forests) plays a major role in the hydrological cycle as it
facilitates the infiltration and storage of water in soils and releases
water back into the air through transpiration (e.g. the process bywhich water drawn out of the soil is released into the air throughthe process of plants “breathing”) [7]. It is hoped that the Floodand Water Management Action Programs in Berlin and Leipzig willcomplement the management of flood risk with a mix of measures
including increased implementation of the green infrastructurethat supports the hydrological cycle and promote public health in
the cities.
Noise
In the European large towns and agglomerations such as Berlin andLeipzig the increasing during the last years, noise exposure together
with poor air quality and intense traffic in urban areas contributeto low quality of life. To manage the situation, the Noise reductionplans (Action plan) were developed by Senate for urban development
and the Environment in Berlin and the City Council of Leipzig thatwill be updated every 5 years [1, 16]. It based on European Environmental Noise Directive and reflects its implementation into German
law. The goal of the noise action plans is to reduce environmental
noise, i.e. the disturbances from noise outside buildings.
To the major health risks from exposure to noise in cities refer:
1) displeasure, discomfort; 2) lost of concentration or get tasks done;3) sleep disturbance; 4) chronic stress; 5) cardiovascular diseases,
including heart attack and stroke — extra 10 000 cases of prema142

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Reduction of sound pressure in cities
through green spaces

Fig. 6. Reduction of sound pressure in cities (cases from Leipzig and Berlin, average value)
through green spaces

ture deaths each year [22]. Having in mind that noise reduction
from planning to implementation is a long process taking years involving complex measures, the government of the both cities uses
the scientific experiences from the different research projects. Oneof such projects was to analyse how the ecosystem services cancontribute to solve a problem of urban noise. It was stated that vegetation can satisfactorily decrease a sound levels along highways.
In forest site, a significant reduction was observed (of 15 dB) as opposed to grass-covered ground (fig. 6). It is important to underlinethat trees of urban parks have a maximum capacity to absorb acoustic pressure in the city up to 23 dB. It was stated, that the efficiencyof tree barriers depends, not only on the expected acoustic results,
but on other factors, such as safety, maintenance, aesthetics, costand its acceptance by local communities. In addition, the combination of soil, plants and trapped layers of air within green wall systems can act as a sound insulation barrier. The research shows thatgreen wall with a 10-12 cm substrate layer can reduce sound by 15
dB. This could be particularly important in areas of high noise pollution in Berlin and Leipzig such in the approaches to airports, asthese levels are sufficient to provide noise insulation to buildings
under aircraft flight paths.
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Other threats to human health and well-being
and how urban green can contribute
The previous paragraphs have shown how urban risks from land
use change, air pollution, noise, heat stress, flood impact to humanhealth of citizens in Berlin and Leipzig can be reduced through urban
greenery. This study suggests that contact with the natural environment could protect people from becoming sensitised to allergens, bybuilding up the human immune system. If contact with biodiversityrich environments can help reduce sensitivity to allergens and boost
immunological tolerance in general, this could have significant implications for urban planning, environmental protection and healthpolicies. In addition, asthma reduction and immunity increase referto the most important benefits from urban green [9, 10].
Thus, linear parks and open spaces make compact living attractive
and viable. Trail networks link individual parks, making them easier
to bike and walk. For instance, old rail lines in Berlin and Leipzig weretransformed into greenways, and gardens planted on rooftops maximise
limited space and contribute to recreational services. In last two decades, governments of Berlin and Leipzig began a program to convert
vacant lots into publicly accessible green spaces. The study shows that
greater access to green is associated by citizens of Leipzig and Berlinwith less depression, provide mental restoration and some evidence of apositive benefit of a walk or run in a natural environment in comparison
to a synthetic environment. The questionnaire surveys conducted in urban parks of Leipzig and Berlin has revealed that living closer to urban
green spaces, such as parks, is associated with lower mental distress.
The results of our interviews with citizens of both cities clearly show thetherapeutic and recreational functions of urban green for other aspectsof mental health such as a source of inspiration and its contribution toecological education and sense of place among citizens.
Conclusions
The research has shown how ecosystem services can address many of thechallenges that cities increasingly face, and what kind of environmental and human health risks and in which way can be manage throughthe concept of ecosystem services. Air pollution (especially from industry
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and transport), climate change effects (e.g. urban heat island) accordingwith such natural hazards as flooding, forest fire are all highly relevant tohuman development in cities, and many indicators of human health andwell-being are caused or exacerbated by a lack of access to the ecosystemservices of a good quality. Illustrated on the cities of Berlin and Leipzig, it shows the negative externalities of urban growth resulted in large
amounts of emissions and other negative consequences of pollution (suchas noise) and different consequences for human health of urban population. In this research, the role of natural (green) areas in reducing of environmental and human health risks as well as supporting of healthy life islinked with such ecosystem services such as air purification, temperature
regulation, groundwater recharge, and cultural services including healthimprovement, aesthetics and recreation, all leading to healthier lifestyles.
Three dimensions of integrating urban ES and quality of life wereanalysed: ecological — moderate the impact of human activities by absorbing pollutants and releasing oxygen, improve the urban climate andmaintain the balance of the city’s natural urban environment, emphasize
the (bio)diversity of urban areas; economic — might deliver products andcreate an increase in the economic value of an area as well as in the valueof real estate; social — contribute to physical and mental health, can embrace a wide range of human activities, help to foster active lifestyles,
play an important role in the basic education of citizens with regard to
the environment and nature. The study results present a high environmental activity of citizens in Berlin and Leipzig. These cities are known
for pioneer uses on vacant lots, like the community gardens, and also
for protests and resistance against development plans, with some nongovernmental groups being active for decades. Organised protest groups
have been successful in conserving vacant inner-city areas.
The cases from Leipzig and Berlin show that the implementationof low impact design principles in urban green management can bea good strategy since it takes into account the character of the local plant communities; it contributes to the creation of biologicallysustainable and pollution resistant ecosystems [8]. There are good
examples from study region such as the greening roofs and facades,
implementation of resource saving technologies (solar roofs). Additionally, a direct involvement of local residents into the landscape145

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design, creation and maintenance of green spaces can contribute to asustainable co-development of the city and an increase in public responsibility, vandalism reduction and social interest in maintaining
and improving the quality of the urban area and its citizens.
References
Amt für Stadtgrün und Gewässer, Stadt Leipzig (2015). Report on current state of environment. Leipzig.
2. Bullock, C., O’Shea, R. (2013) ECORISK: Ecosystem services valuation for environmental risk and damage assessment. EPA ERTDISTRIVE Programme. University College Dublin.
3. Coutts, C., Hahn, M. (2015) Green Infrastructure, Ecosystem
Services, and Human Health. Int J Environ Res Public Health 12(8),9768–9798. doi: 10.3390/ijerph120809768
4. Daily, G., Reichert, J.S., Myers, J.P. (1997) Nature’s Services:
Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems. Island Press, Washington, DC.
5. Dicson, E., Tiwari, A., Baker J., Hoornweg, D. (2009) Understanding urban risk. An approach for assessing disaster and climate
risk in cities. World Bank. Washington.
6. Elmquist, T., Fragkias, M., Goodness, J. et al. (Eds.) (2013)
Urbanization, Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services: Challenges andOpportunities. A Global Assessment. Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg
New York London.
7. Grunewald, K., Bastian, O. (2015) Ecosystem Services — Concept, Methods and Case Studies. Springer.
8.	Haase, D., Larondelle, N., Andersson, E. et al. (2014) A Quantitative Review of Urban Ecosystem Service Assessments: Concepts,
Models, and Implementation. Ambio 43(4): 413–433.
9. Hartig T., Mitchell R., de Vries S., Frumkin H. Nature andhealth (2014) Annu. Rev. Public Health 35, 21.1–21.22. doi: 10.1146/
annurev-publhealth-032013-182443.
10. Levy, K., Daily, G., Myers, S.S. (2012) Human Health as an Ecosystem Service: A Conceptual Framework. In: Ingram, J.C. et al. (Eds.)
Integrating ecology and Poverty reduction: Ecological dimensions.
Springer + Business Media, LLC, New York, 231-251.
1.

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11. MA — Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) Ecosystems
and Human Well-Being: Health Synthesis. WHO; Geneva, Switzerland.
12. McMichael A.J., Woodruff R., Hales S. (2006) Climate change
and human health: Present and future risks. Lancet. 367:859–869.
doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(06)68079-3
13. Munang R, et al. (2013) The role of ecosystem services in climatechange adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Current Opinion in
Environmental Sustainability, 5, 1–6.
14. Munns, W., Rea, A., Suter, G. et al. (2016) Ecosystem services
as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment. Integrated
Environmental Assessment Management 12: 522–528.
15. Sandifer, P.A., Sutton-Grier, A.E., Ward, B.P. (2015) Exploring connections among nature, biodiversity, ecosystem services, andhuman health and well-being: Opportunities to enhance health andbiodiversity conservation. Ecosystem Services 12, 1–15.
16. Senate Department for Urban Development and the Environment (2015) Berlin Environmental Atlas, Edition 2015. Berlin.
17. TEEB — The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity Ecosystem Services. [accessed on 22 September 2016]. Available online: http://www.teebweb.org/resources/ecosystem-services/
18.	U.S. EPA (2016) Ecosystems Research: Ecosystem Services (accessed
9 Oct 2016)19. van Lleeuwen, M., Rense, M., Jiménez, A. et al. (2013) Integrating ecosystems in resilience practice: Criteria for EcosystemSmart Disaster Risk-Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation.
Wetlands International. Wageningen, The Netherlands.
20. Weber, N., Haase, D., Frack, U. (2014) Zooming into temperature
conditions in the city of Leipzig: How do urban built and green structures influence earth surface temperatures in the city. Science of thetotal environment 496, 289-298.
21. WEF — the World Economic Forum (2014) Global Risks, Ninth
Edition. Geneva.
22. WHO — World Health Organization (2005) Ecosystems andHuman Well-Being: Health Synthesis; WHO Press: Geneva, Switzerland.
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Special Session II“Attractions and risks at the Baikal
region”
Michail SLIPENCHUK,Elena VOROBYEVSKAYA, Natalia SEDOVA,
Tatyana ZENGINA
Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University

The complex
geographical expeditionsin the Republic of Buryatia
Introduction
Complex geographical expeditions have been carried out in the Republicof Buryatia by the students and teachers of the Faculty of Geographyof the Lomonosov Moscow State University since 2012. The following
areas have been studied: Severobaikalsky, Barguzinsky, Tarbagataisky
and Pribaikalsky districts of the Republic of Buryatia (Fig.1).
In the Baikal region there is difficult environmental, economic andsocial situation associated, on the one hand, with the protection of the
Baikal natural territory, Lake Baikal as the World Natural Heritage, and,on the other hand, with the need to conduct economic activity in the region. Our researching was aimed at identifying ways to optimize nature
management of the study areas through integrated approach.
Methodology
The integrated approach includes the research of different aspectsof nature management. First, the study of nature, including topo148

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Fig. 1. Location of the research areas

nymic research in the context of a comprehensive study of nature
management as a system (nature, culture, history, economic activity).
Second, sociological studies on the socio-economic situation in thevarious administrative districts of the Republic of Buryatia. Thirdly,
we conducted geoecological studies in some areas. And finally westudied the recreational potential of the territory.
Methodology
The integrated approach includes the research of different aspectsof nature management. First, the study of nature, including toponymic research in the context of a comprehensive study of nature
management as a system (nature, culture, history, economic activity).
Second, sociological studies on the socio-economic situation in thevarious administrative districts of the Republic of Buryatia. Thirdly,
we conducted geoecological studies in some areas. And finally westudied the recreational potential of the territory.
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Studies of nature management
and toponymical research
To study the history of human activity and contemporary nature management the toponymic research was carried out. The analysis of thedata obtained (about 1000 toponyms were analyzed and systemized)
helped to create the toponymic dictionary. The analysis shows thatthe largest number of toponyms have Russian origins, much less the
Buryat and Evenk toponyms, although the Evenki were the first habitants of these vast territories. But later they were driven away by peopleof other nationalities. This is especially true of the taiga (the Evenki
were mostly hunters). The Buryats preferred to settle in steppe areas(they were nomadic, herders). Almost all the geographical names havebeen renamed when Russian people came, gradually displacing the
Evenki from here.
Also with the support of supplementary secondary sources, eg.
maps, sketch maps, statistics, charts, historical books etc., contemporary and historical maps of nature management and traditional nature
use were made. The map reflects the natural features of the area, fishing grounds, fishing and hunting objects and crafts, objects of naturaland cultural heritage, etc. The analysis of the map shows that primarily the resource-fishing and traditional types of nature management
continues to grow in the area, due to its natural resource potential.
Originally there were engaged in fishing, hunting, mining nuts andother wild plants, timber harvesting, carting. At present, these trades
largely retained their importance in the economy of the area. Special
attention was given to the Old Beleivers (Semeiskiye) which is the second largest ethnic Russian group in Buryatia. The Semeiskiye belong
to the unique Russian culture which developed under specific conditions that never repeated in other Russian ethnicities [1].
Sociological studies
Sociological studies serve as a link between theoretical research andreality. To conduct a poll, a questionnaire was developed for peopleof different target groups.
The aim of the survey was assessing the prospects for the development of the region and the development of the Republic of Burya150

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Fig. 2. Location of the research areas

tia in general from the point of view of the local population. We
were interested in the following points: 1) how the locals assess thesituation in Buryatia; 2) in what the locals see the development of
their region; 3) if the locals are aware about the prospects of development of the area and whether they have a desire to participate indecisions about its future development; 4) whether local people wantto preserve the natural environment, traditional industries; 5) what
the local people think about the prospects of tourism development
and whether they are ready to work in this field. The data was interpreted and displayed in the form of diagrams (Fig.2).
The majority of local people favors the possible development oftraditional industries, tourism and recreational activities and areready to contribute to it. The locals are not indifferent to their land,
as well as to their future. They care about preserving the natureof their area. Most of them are going to continue staying on theirnative land, and for them it is essential that their opinions should
be taken into account when making decisions about future development of the region.
On the other hand the limitation of predatory nature use, preservation of a large part of the territory for future generations controlled by its recreational use with all the natural resources, the151The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

adoption of “transparent” decisions on the development of natural
resources from the part of managers, their willingness to establish
contact and to listen to public opinion could become the basis for the
beginning of the process of environmental planning and management in the region [2].
Geoecological studies
One of the most important aspects of research in the study area
was the study of contemporary environmental situation in order toassess the prospects for the development of recreational activities.
Investigations were carried out on the example of a number of modelsites, one of which was a recreational area of Lake Kotokel. The lake
belongs to the basin of Lake Baikal, and is the third largest body ofwater in the basin of Lake Baikal and in the whole Zabaikalye. The
lake and its surroundings can be used for public recreation and yearround health resort treatment (balneotherapy). However, after the
2008-2009 Lake Kotokel largely lost not only fishery, but also recreational value due to the sharp deterioration of the ecological state of
the aquatic ecosystem of thelake. All recreational facilities on the lake were closed,
fishing, swimming, water
usage in household purposes
was banned.
Hydrochemical research
was carried out to estimate
the current ecological statusof Lake Kotokel and its suburbs (Fig. 3).
The contamination onsome indicators was observed. Analysis of the quality of water in wells andboreholes of coastal settlements used for drinking
and domestic purposes wasFig. 3. Factual data map on Lake Kotokel
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Fig. 4. Modern recreational use of Sludyanskiye Lakes

made. The sources of drinking water in coastal settlements are ofserious concern, where the water quality does not meet sanitary
standards. Thus, the current ecological status of the lake requires
the adoption of measures for its further purification, artificial reproduction and the introduction of valuable fish species, rehabilitationof recreational infrastructure, and improvement of drinking water
sources. Only comprehensive measures in conjunction with constantcontrol of the environmental situation of the lake can help restore
its recreational attractiveness in the whole Baikal region. The hydrochemical network was established to continue the geoecologicalmonitoring at the locations of recreational facilities and prospective
tourist routes [3].
Studies of recreational potential
Within Baikal Natural Territory there are many other small lakes
that attract attention of both local residents and international
visitors. Currently, these small lakes are the objects of recreation,boating, recreational fishing and family rest with children. They
attract the tourists’ attention by warmer water, more convenientbeaches and bays, equipped camps on their banks, and others.
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However, active recreation on small lakes are often located too
close to the shoreline of Lake Baikal and can become a source ofnegative effects on the ecosystem of Lake Baikal. Moreover, itcauses environmental damage not only to terrestrial and aquatic
complexes of recreational areas around the lakes, but also creates
serious problems for the recreants themselves and even in somecases can lead to health problems [4].
During the expeditions two of these lakes situated neat Lake
Baikal in the Severobaikalsky district have been studied: Bolshaya
Slyudyanka and Malaya Slyudyanka. Landscape profiling has been
carried out on Bolshaya Slyudyanka Lake, where several areas of
the coastal zone have been distinguished (different in character of
their use and accordingly in the degree of their recreational load): 1)
zone of equipped beach with a maximum recreational load, 2) zoneof “wild” unequipped beach, 3) background landscape with minimal
disruption in the northern part of the lake (Fig.4).
Conclusion
In the course of our expeditions we gathered the huge mass ofdata characterizing the different aspects of nature management
and the contemporary ecological situation. The area of study has
many attractive factors for developing different types of nature
management. Special attention should be given to the traditional
nature use and tourism. As a result the variety of recreational
activities was developed in the areas of research.
Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to the Fund for Protection of Lake Baikal
for organizing the expeditions to Buryatia in 2012–2016.

1.

References
Vorobyevskaya, E., Zengina, T., Sedova, N., Ustyantsev,
A (2014). Complex geographic researching in the Baikal Region.
Engineering for green development. Proceedings of the first RussianJapanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment. MSU
Publishers, Moscow. p. 231–238.
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2.

Slipenchuk, M., Sedova, N., Vorobyevskaya, E. (2016).
Sociological research in tourism and recreation zone “Baikal
Harbour”. Journal of geographical institute ”Jovan Cvijic”, vol. 63,№ 3, p. 65–72.
3. 	Kirillov, S., Sedova, N., Vorobyevskaya, E., Zengina, T. (2014).
Problems and prospects for tourism development in the Baikal
Region, Russia. Geoconference on Ecology, Economics, Educationand Legislation. Conference proceedings. Bulgaria, 531–538.
4. 	Kirillov S., Slipenchuk M., Zengina T. (2016). Managementof the sustainable development of the Baikal natural territory in
Russia. International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable
Development. Inderscience Enterprises (United Kingdom), Vol. 10,№ 1, p. 57–68.

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Tamir BOLDANOV, Gennady MUKHIN
Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University

Climatic changes
and environmental risksof nature management
at the Baikal region

Introduction
There are marked evident climatiс changes in the Southern Siberia, including the Baikal region. Based on the analysis of climatic data obtained
from meteorological stations of Republic Buryatia for 1970–2015 years
period, temperature’s trends and rainfall’s changes have been detectedin different regions of the Republic (Fig.1). The global warming trend,
the amount of precipitation decreasing, the climatic parameters annual
amplitude increase and the growth of climate continentality are stated.
Trend’s analysis shows the growth of average annual temperaturesduring the period by 1–1.5° C for majority of the stations. And also there
is a decrease in average annual rainfall from 30 to 100 mm, while maintaining or slightly increasing on the other stations. This causes theevaporation increase and a reduction of flow-surface, and with the increase of water intake for the Angara GES cascade it results in reducingof the lake Baikal level.
The increase of summer temperatures, accompanied by abnormally hot
and dry summers, contributes to increasing fire risk in the region. The
evident correlation between annual and summer temperatures trends andgrowth of fires’ number, square and duration is stated for discussed period.
The dynamics of climatic indices affects on the productivity of agriculture also. Decreased crop productivity in some regions of the country
is closely related on the one hand with general decline in the agrotechnical level and on the other hand with the growing climate aridization.
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Fig. 1. The Republic of Buryatia administrative map
Fig. 2. Data of meteorological stations of the Republic of Buryatia

In general, climate change has an impact on the whole complex ofnatural resources management, and this factor should be considered forthe development strategy of the Baikal region.

Dynamic of climatic changes
1Temperature
1C/yearPrecipitation
100 mm/year

Fig. 2. Data of meteorological stations of the Republic of Buryatia

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Materials and methods
Analysis of climate changes within the Republic of Buryatia area wasfulfilled on the base of meteorological data obtained from 29 regional
weather stations (Fig. 2). We have used the databases of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (http://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov),
All-Russian Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information
FGBU “RIHMI-WDC” (http://meteo.ru).
The increase of summer temperatures, accompanied by abnormally
hot and dry summers, contributes to increasing fire risk in the region.
The evident correlation between annual and summer tempe ratures
trends and growth of fires’ number, square and duration is stated for
discussed period.
The dynamics of climatic indices affects on the productivity of agriculture also. Decreased crop productivity in some regions of the country
is closely related on the one hand with general decline in the agrotechnical level and on the other hand with the growing climate aridization.
In general, climate change has an impact on the whole complex ofnatural resources management, and this factor should be considered
for the development strategy of the Baikal region.
The values of annual, average summer and average winter temperatures as well as values of the annual, average summer and average winterprecipitation for 1970–2015 years period were treated. Average monthly climatic parameters were estimated according to their daily values. Averageannual values were calculated by the monthly average values for each station. At the base of average annual and seasonal temperature and precipitation values the linear trends graphs have been constructed for all weather
stations, while each of them had corresponding trend lines’ equations.
In order to analyze the fire risk due to climate changes, as well as
the dynamics of the Lake Baikal level and the Selenga River runoff,
the statistics and graph materials from the Baikal Institute of NatureManagement, the data of the http://fires.kosmosnimki.ru site, the reports
the RF Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment and reports of
the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Republic of
Buryatia were used [3,7]. Correlation analysis methods have been applied in order to reveal the degree of correlation between the climatic
indicators dynamics, fire risks and runoff changes.
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Fig. 3. Linear trends of meteorological data for the Ust’-Barguzin station for 1970-2014 years

Results
The evaluation of climatic parameters dynamics have shown the growth of
average annual temperatures by more than 1 degree for 45 years for the majority of the stations and more than 2 degrees increase for 6 stations (Kabansk,
Goryachinsk, Suhaya, Taza, Khorinsk, Karaftit) during 45-years period.
The maximal linear increments of average annual temperature
was observed in Kurumkansky (Taza station) and Khorinsky (Khorinsk station) districts, they are 3.0°C and 2.8°C respectively.
The precipitation values are slightly declined or constant for mostpart of stations. The maximal decrease of precipitation was observed
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Fig. 4. Linear trends of meteorological data for the station Kyakhta for 1970-2014 years

in the southern regions, for example, 27.5 mm, or –0.8 mm / peryear was observed in Bichursky district. By contrast in the northern
taiga area (Nizhneangarsk) a slight increase in 36 mm or 0.01 mm
per year was observed. Figures 3 and 4 show the temperature andprecipitation linear trends for two typical stations (Ust-Barguzin
station in Barguzin river valley, and Kyakhta station in the southern
dry steppe dist rict).
It should be noted that in comparison with the European partof Russia, where the average annual temperature growth is due towinter temperatures growth mainly; there is observed the increase160

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both winter and summer temperatures in the Baikal region[4,6]. The
seasonal temperature trends at the station Khorinsk are presented
in Figure 5.
Analysis of the seasonal temperature dynamics has detected
the maximal increase of summer temperatures in the steppe anddry steppe areas, as well as in the northern taiga. The Baikal
lake brings a softening, smoothing effect on the dynamics of
seasonal temperatures. The Baikal districts are distinguished byrelatively small increase of winter and summer temperatures,
they consist 2,15° C or 0.05° C per year and 3.15°C or 0.07°C per
year, respectively.
Other patterns are revealed in the precipitation distribution.
There has been revealed a steady growth in the northern andmountainous areas (Muya, Severobaikalsk, Okinsky), while there
is marked a significant decreasing in more cultivated steppe, dry
steppe and suburban areas. For example Khorinsky area is characterized by reducing amount of summer precipitation by 33 mm

Fig. 5. Meteorological data for the station Khorinsk for 1970-2014 years

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during the study period, while winter precipitation amount remains
at the same level.
In general for the Republic of Buryatia, the zone with maximaland steady increasing surface air temperatures and decreasing precipitation was distinguished for the study period. This zone includes
all steppe and dry steppe areas of the central and southern part of thecountry located in the Selenga River Basin.
Global warming in terms of increased summer temperatures anddecreasing rainfall directly affects the growth of fire risk in the region. The cycle of these disasters has been revealed during the observed period. On the average, large fires appear across the whole
region once per 12–13 years, but recently the cycles become more
frequent. On the average, every year fires cover about 34 thousand ha
but this value has increased twice for last 10 years. Observed steadyincrease both of fires’ number and fires’ area presents clear evidenceof climate changes in the region. The most severe fires had appearedin 2014 and 2015, when higher summer temperatures and minimalsummer precipitation had been fixed. The forest area burnt during
these two years, is more than for 30 years before. While on one hand,the number of fires is largely connected with anthropogenic factor,
but the fires’ duration and area is closely correlated with summer
temperatures and precipitation and their dynamics (Fig.6).
At present, the scientific and economic communities, the regional
authorities and local people are concerned on fluctuation of the lake
Baikal level and its critical values. The problem is associated mainlywith the energy industry on the Angara river. This factor, however,is may be regulated by political and economic mechanisms. But thelake level dependence on natural and climatic factors presents moredifficult and serious problem.
The level regime of the Lake Baikal has two periods - a naturalmode (until 1958) and regulated — since 1958. The long-term lakelevel increased by 0.82 m under the HPP exploitation, with the highest level increasing by 0.33 m and the lowest — by 0.3m, while overregulation have affected the oscillation amplitude which increased
from 93 cm to 99 cm. Now the minimum acceptable level of water inthe lake is 455.54 m.
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Session 4“Nature and environmental risks
and policies”
Yuri MAZUROV.
Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University

Environmental policy
in Russia and education

Introduction
A holistic, systemic environmental policy has become a reality ofthe public administration in Russia (then the USSR) since 1972. In
many respects it was a reaction to the results of the Stockholm UN
Conference on the Environment (June 1972). Initially, the mission ofenvironmental policy in the country was the protection of nature andthe rational use of natural resources. After the United Nations World
Conference on Environment and Development (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil,1992), the mission of environmental policy was linked to the objectivesof the concept of sustainable development, supported at the state level.
It is of fundamental importance that education has always been
seen as a necessary condition for successful environmental policy.
Thus, one of the provisions of the Stockholm Declaration clearly
defines “Environmental education is necessary”. It was this position
that was actively perceived in the USSR as a guide to action. As aresult, the world’s first international conference on environmental
education was held in the country.
In 1977, UNESCO and UNEP on behalf of the United Nations held
the First World Intergovernmental Conference on Environmental
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Education in Tbilisi. This conference was the most important event,symbolizing the fifth anniversary of the Stockholm Declaration, ahistorical document that laid the foundation for the reorientation of
the world community from spontaneous uncoordinated development
to planning for the optimal future of mankind. The Tbilisi Declaration
laid the foundation for the development of environmental education,
which, to a large extent, facilitated the timely preparation of the
population in our country for the implementation in everyday lifeof new principles consistent with the modern concept of sustainablehuman development
Progress towards sustainable development helps to objectively
identify existing environmental constraints on economic development
and to make society adapt to such constraints. Implementation ofsustainable development principles, supported by government,
can enable a new stage of the ‘greening’ of education — a radical
modernization of the education system by linking environmental
issues to all of the subjects taught in secondary schools anduniversities. The development of environmental culture among thegeneral public is to be achieved using the potential offered by bothformal and non-formal education.
Education and Education for Sustainable
Development
The idea that education is a driver of change for the better future
is not a new one. In one form or another it has been recognizedby different countries and cultural communities. In European
culture values of education entered the number of the spiritual
priorities in antiquity. According to contemporaries, Socrates
believed that knowledge is virtue. Whereas, Decartes, the greatest
philosopher of the middle ages, declared that knowledge is power.
This idea was vividly reflected in the 20-th century, including in
our country.
Successful cultural revolutions of the 20-th century have shownthat development of education is a sine qua non for progress almost
everywhere in the world — both in the West and in the East.
Education has become a universal and virtually irreplaceable tool for164

Plenary Reportssocial progress. It is natural, that by adopting in 1992 the Conceptof Sustainable Development as a global paradigm, humanity definededucation as a prerequisite for its achievement.
Later it became clear that only political declaration was notenough. And if the role of education is really so significant, it shouldhave much bigger political support. It is not surprising, that the
proposal of extending such support and enhancing the status ofeducation in a global context was made by Japan — the country thatfully enjoyed the beneficial effects of the educational revolution in
the Meiji period, which literally means “enlightened rule”. It was inthis period, as we know, that emerged the logo — “study and work
day and night.” This national idea for state development allowed toovercome its feudal backwardness and to become one of the world
leading countries.
It is symptomatic that after the passing away of Emperor Meiji,
the significance of this principle, emerged during his reign, was not
weakened, but also significantly increased. In modern language, thisprinciple and the policies which are based on it, effectively contributed
to sustainable development of the country, fully confirming theuniversal nature of education as a factor of progress. We can assume
that, in 2002, this has prompted the Japanese government to address
the United Nations, launching a long-term global initiative in support
of education for sustainable development (ESD). This initiative
was enthusiastically backed by UNESCO and the international
community at large. The period from 2005 to 2014 was declared
the UN Decade of Education for Sustainable Development (DESD),
Japan becoming its main sponsor, and UNESCO was designated as
its executive agency (5).
Japan was real leader in DESD whose authority as the world
humanitarian leader has increased significantly. It is therefore quite
natural, that the final conference of the DESD was scheduled in thiscountry. It was held on 10 to 12 November 2015 in Nagoya, one ofJapan’s largest cities, the provincial capital of Aichi, pronounced
features of the national model of sustainable development.
The conference was the highlight of educational policy at theinternational level. It may have great impact on educational policies
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at the national level. Participation of the world leading experts in
education, just as thorough preparation by Japan and international
structures have been major factors in the success of the conference.
Despite certain difficulties, the conference was able to meet thechallenges, the most important of which was the assessment of thecurrent state of education in the world and its mobilization to address
the problems of transition to sustainable development.
The conference adopted the Nagoya Declaration, aimed atstrengthening of the role of ESD, as a major universal tool forsustainable development in the world, and endorsed the UNESCO
Roadmap of the Global Action Programme for ESD. The mainstreamingof ESD in the international agenda, as one of the most important
areas of global policy for sustainable development as put forth by theWorld Summit Rio + 20 is the main informal result of the meetingin Nagoya. Further integration of the global educational community
based on the understanding of its responsibility in the face of global
challenges of our time and the perception of growing support frompolitical stakeholders and the world community is the other outcomeof the forum.
The final document of Nagoya conference was unanimously
supported which means that the international community sees no
obvious alternatives of ESD, just as the Rio + 20 saw no alternativesof sustainable development. Integration of the DESD into national
development strategies will open up new opportunities to make thefuture we want possible (2, 6).
Sustainability: Russian Potential
In recent years, the Russian political leadership has cited the principles
of sustainable development with increasing frequency. As Vladimir
Putin said in a speech on August 1, 2009: ‘...nearly all developed
countries now live by the logic of sustainable development.’ The
speech, effectively called for greater inclusion of this logic in Russianpolitical, economic and social practice. But the decisions, which aretaken using this logic, must take account of Russia’s specifics andexploit the achievements of Russian science, which are still far frombeing used to the full.
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The concept of sustainable development, as it exists today, isjustifiably viewed worldwide as an interdisciplinary approach foraddressing the most complex challenges, which society faces. As
well as its large economic content, sustainable development also
concerns geography and social ecology (which is closely related
to geography). The development in Russia of an original conceptof rational environmental management was a major and datablestep forward in Russian science, signaling the appearance of a newscientific field — the geography of development, — which objectively
supplements development economics (or the economics of sustainable
development, as it is otherwise known).
The outstanding Soviet scientist, David L. Armand (geographer,landscape scientist and conservationist) can be considered to be an
originator of the concept of rational environmental management
thanks to his book, published in 1964 by Mysl publishing house under
the highly significant title For Us and Our Grandchildren. The book
was to be for Soviet readers what the book by the Swiss author, Jean
Dorst, Before Nature Dies would be for western readers. For Us and
Our Grandchildren gave the first detailed exposition in Russian of themodern scientific approach to the use of natural resources, which treats
them as crucial and eternal sources of value for human society. In
effect, it was a manifesto for rational management of natural resources,
offered to society as an alternative to the wastage and neglect of thetreasures of nature, which had become widespread at the time.
The affinity between the ideas and content of the Westernconcept of sustainable development and the Russian concept ofrational environmental management is unsurprising, since bothconcepts reflect the movement of civilization towards greater equity
and responsibility for the future. So the ideology of sustainable
development has continuity with approaches that are already wellknown in Russia, although not fully implemented, and the ideology
is not alien to the traditions of domestic environmental management
and to the Russian national mentality. It is also important to notethat the concept of rational environmental management was not
a completely new invention of its main ideologues, but expressed
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which are themselves consonant with the environmental traditionsof the peoples of Russia as a kind of our common national intangible
heritage. This point offers a strong basis for the ideology of sustainable
development in Russia (1, 3).
New challenges and global development
The world is finding a new way of living with technology, where
qualitative characteristics will depend largely on new approaches tonatural resource use. The world is entering into a new technologicalorder, where qualitative characteristics will be largely determinedby the technology of the “new environmental management”. These
are more needed now than ever before as the inevitability of‘greening’ of the economy (a move away from the moribund ‘grey’
economy) becomes increasingly apparent. Humanity seems to haveno other option but to make the economy and ways of life conform toenvironmental criteria. There is no alternative to the green economy.
The new global development paradigm requires observanceof natural ‘limits to growth’, adapting our social and economic
parameters to the conditions of the environment. Finding a solution
to this unprecedentedly complex problem is only possible by making
science serve the goals of sustainable development. Academic andapplied science in Russia is aware of its responsibility to ensuretechnological breakthrough to a sustainable future. But that will
require dozens and possibly hundreds of Russian research centersand much greater state support for science and education than is now
available.
Genuine changeover to a ‘green’ economy in Russia requires real
adoption of environmental criteria in industry, for which Russia isessentially ready, having a system for the training of specialists inthis field already in place. But more is needed to make the transition
to sustainable development not only in word but indeed. Experienceof recent decades shows that Russia’s attempts to travel the path ofsustainable development have been unsuccessful and the country
has actually been wasting time. The main reason for this must be theinability of the crucial part of the country’s leaders to understand it
and make such a transition.
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Until now, leaders in many spheres of Russian life have had
a fairly abstract or even a distorted picture of what ‘sustainable
development’ means, including its environmental component. In a
country where, as ever, formal leaders decide everything, they arecontinuing to do so without taking into account of the urgent needfor transition to sustainable development. The requirements of social
justice, social responsibility and environmental culture are viewed
as pleasantries, and not priorities that need to become a part of ourliving arrangements.
In this situation the only way to achieve radical change for the
better is to appoint people with adequate knowledge, skills andcompetence in the field of sustainable development to positions ofresponsibility at all levels and in all spheres of life, and this is only
possible by means of appropriate modern educational technologies
However, the extent of the new educational paradigm in Russia canand should be much greater, reflecting the processes and phenomenathat can be observed in other parts of the world.
Conclusion
The historic summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 set out an Agenda
for the 21st Century, which identified a wide range of strategies toachieve sustainability, including a key role for education. It was hopedthat national governments would review the state of environmental
education situation in their respective countries and strengthen theirsupport for it at all levels. Work is indeed underway around the world to
put ESD systems in place. In developed countries, it has led to impressive
development of the institutional framework and the provision of
government support. This experience is of interest to Russia. But while
creative borrowing of foreign experience can prove valuable, it is also
necessary to fully utilize domestic potential in the respective fields.
A global project for ESD represents a unique opportunity to raise
the status of education as a civilizing institution. It also offers a realchance to demonstrate the potential of science to modern society,and to introduce environmental culture as a vital element in thesystem of knowledge and skills that can ensure the genuine stability
and well-being of society.
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The ongoing discussion of how to establish ESD in Russia is
occurring in a post-crisis context, and it creates many new challenges
for our society. But that in no way detracts from the urgency ofsuch improvements to education. The words of the famous Russianscientist and humanist, Academician Vladimir Vernadsky, are more
relevant now than ever: ‘Russia’s salvation depends on the expansionof education and knowledge.’ (4). We, his descendants, can see evermore clearly that the same precept is the road to salvation, notonly for Russia but for the whole world. There is nothing available
to us in today’s society, which is better suited for addressing crises
and achieving sustainability, than ‘the expansion of education andknowledge.’ And this is true not only with respect to economic crises,
but also to environmental and social crises, which represent evengreater challenges for humanity.

1.

2.
3.

4.

5.
6.

References
Analytical report “Ecological education is a pure country”. Under
the Society. Ed. V.D. Krivov — Moscow: Federation Council, 2017 [inRussian].
Human Development Report 2013. Sustainable development: thechallenges of Rio. Ed. S.N. Bobylev. — Moscow: UNDP Russia, 2013.
Mazurov Yu.L. Environmental education and education for sustainable development: conference in Nagoya and its results // Environmental education. № 2, 2015. P. 3-9 [in Russian].
Mazurov Yu.L. Ideas of development in the work of V.I. Vernadsky
and their modern relevance // Noosphere. №2. 2016. P. 14-18 [in Russian].
Mazurov Yu.L. Global agenda in the field of education and Russia’s participation in it // UNESCO Herald. No. 28, 2016. P. 96-107.
Transformation of our world: An Agenda for Sustainable
Development for the period until 2030. Resolution adopted by
the UN General Assembly on September 25, 2015. — New York: United Nations, 2015.

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Kumiko TSUJIMOTO
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo

Land-lake-atmosphereinteraction under global
climate change and regional
landuse change over alarge tropical lake and its
vicinities: case study in
Cambodia
I would like to introduce my research work at the environs of
the Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia and its implication to a potential
research activity on the Lake Baikal area in Russia.
Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia
The target area of this study is the Tonle Sap Lake. This lake islocated in Cambodia, in the lower Mekong River Basin in the
Indochina Peninsula. Due to the existence of distinct rainy and dry
seasons under the tropical monsoon climate, the water level of the
Mekong River experiences a large seasonal change and the reverse
flow at the Tonle Sap River occurs during the high-water season of
the Mekong River. The Tonle Sap Lake usually drains its water tothe lower Mekong River through the Tonle Sap River, but during thereverse flow season of the Tonle Sap River (i.e. the rainy season), theriver water of the Mekong flows into the lake and it makes the lake
expanded with inundation water. As a result, the lake area changes
from approximately 2,500km2 at the end of the dry season to 15,000
km2 at the end of the rainy season. The maximum lake size is about
half of the Lake Baikal in Russia, and it is more than 20 times aslarge as the Lake Biwa, the largest lake of Japan.
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Fig. 1. Map of the study area

Research motivation
The inundation area of the lake is mainly used as paddy fields. Among
surrounding areas of the lake, the western plain is the most agriculturally productive area in Cambodia and known as “Cambodian rice bowl”.
In the western area, characteristic local rainfalls have been recognizedby the author’s study [Tsujimoto and Koike, 2012]. Although this area isunder tropical monsoon climate with distinct rainy and dry seasons, atwestern Cambodia, rainfall continues at the post-monsoon season (i.e.,the beginning of the dry season) at nighttime and early morning.
I have been investigating the characteristics and the mechanisms ofthis local rainfall in order to contribute to consider a productive, sustainable, and holistic agricultural land management under changing environment and growing economy with globalization. In addition to the cli172

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Fig. 2. Three hourly rainfall observed by satellite averaged for November 2007

mate change, this area is under a significant land surface change by bothlarge-scale deforestation and basin development with dam construction.
Since large-scale land surface change may affect the atmospheric circulation by changes of land surface fluxes, the characteristic local rainfalls
in this area may change by these land surface changes, and then may affect the local agricultural water resources. The objectives of this study is
to examine the possibility of the rainfall change by land surface changes
through understanding of local rainfall mechanisms in this area.
Characteristics and mechanisms of thelocal rainfalls in this area
Fig. 2 shows the monthly averaged 3-hourly rainfall observed by satellite in November 2007. As shown, rainfall events mostly occur atnighttime and it is dominant at the western side of the lake.
The mechanisms of this rainfall and its affecting factors havebeen investigated using a regional atmospheric model, the Advanced
Regional Prediction System (ARPS) [Xue et al., 2000; Xue et al.,2001]. By the analysis, the land breeze at night from southwestern
mountain to the lake was found to be playing a key role to bring thisrainfall [Tsujimoto and Koike, 2013].
The land-breeze circulation is basically driven by the thermal
contrast over the land and water, as it is well known. However,
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the night-time thermal contrast issmaller than that of day time andnight-time circulation tends to be
weaker than that during day-time.
At middle latitude in the northernhemisphere, the day-time circulation,lake-breeze, rotates clockwise during
day time due to the Coriolis force andbreezes from the opposite side afterFig. 3. Difference of latitudes for thea half day, at night time. Since thisthree lakes, the Lake Baikal, the Lake
lake-breeze-oriented wind breezes toBiwa, and the Lake Tonle Sap.
gether with the thermally-driven land
breeze, the “apparent” land breeze atnight also develops. At low latitude with smaller Coriolis force, however, the rotation is weaker so that the nocturnal land breeze must be
smaller than the mid-latitude one, if other conditions are the same.
Considering this theoretical estimation, the land-breeze in the
Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia had been thought to be weak. However, by the ground observation and numerical simulations, the landbreeze at night in this area was strong enough to bring even rainfalls. Through the analysis, it was revealed that the lake surface area
is very high at this lake, more than 30 degrees, and the high watertemperature of the lake keeps nighttime thermal contrast strong
even during nighttime and make the development of strong land
breeze possible.
The Coriolis parameter, f, is described with f =2ωsinφ, where ω
indicates the angular velocity of the earth and φ indicates latitude.
The parameter f is then calculated to be 3.0 x 10–5 /s for Cambodia(Tonle Sap Lake), 9.0 x 10–5 /s for Japan (Lake Biwa), and 12.0 x 10–5
/s for Russia (the Baikal Lake), reflecting the difference of the latitude,
as shown in Fig. 3.
A study on the land-lake breeze circulation in Russia would be very interesting from the view point toward the systematic understanding of therelationship of the land-lake breeze circulation, latitude, and surrounding
land condition (geology, vegetation, etc.). Therefore, it would be a great
pleasure for me if I could launch a collaborative study for the lake Baikal.
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Methodology
In order to improve the numerical simulation of this local rainfall, an
effective use of ground observation, satellite observation, and numerical modelling in a combined way would be very useful. In Cambodia,
there exists no operational radiosonde observation for upper atmosphere. We did an on-the-job training of the radiosonde observation with
Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, Cambodia, in February
2008 and carried out collaborative intensive observation in May 2008
and November 2013 with them. Using the observed data for upper atmosphere together with the data assimilation technique for a regional
atmospheric model, WRFDA [Barker et al., 2012], we could improve therainfall simulation accuracy over Cambodia, as shown in Fig. 4.
Summary
In the vicinities of the Lake Tonle Sap in Cambodia, with limited
irrigation facilities, farmers are depending mainly on rainfall for agriculture. Some rainfalls are brought not only by the seasonal monsoon but also by the local lake-land-atmosphere interaction.

Fig. 4. Simulated and observed hourly rainfall over Cambodia. (Upper) by atmosphericmodel (WRF) only. (Middle) by WRFDA with a model and radiosonde data. (Bottom) bysatellite observation.

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For that local atmospheric circulation, land-breeze at nighttime is thekey, but theoretically, it should be weak under the low latitude. Exceptionally high lake water temperature makes nighttime land-breeze very strong
and contributes to the local rainfall (and agricultural water resources) in
dry season. Such a mechanism and its evidence have been clarified by an
integrated approach through lots of ground observations and field surveys,
satellite information, numerical modelling, and theoretical analysis.
I am very much interested in the study of the Lake Baikal as a comparative study with the Lake Tonle Sap and other lakes in the world under different conditions, especially regarding the land-lake-atmosphereinteraction and its effects on meso-scale meteorology, precipitation,water resources management, and food security under global climatechange and socio-economic change. I really wish to visit the Lake Baikal!

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

References
Barker D., et al.: The Weather Research and Forecasting Model’s
Community Variational /Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 831–843, 2012.
Masumoto T., Tsujimoto K., Somura H.: Hydro-meteorologicalObservation and Analysis of Observed Data at Tonle Sap Lake andits Environs, Urban and Paddy Areas, Technical Report of national
Institute for Rural Engineering, 206, 219-236, 2007.
Tsujimoto K. and Koike T.: Requisite conditions for post-monsoon
rainfall in Cambodia, Journal of Hydroscience & Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 31-1, pp.1-14, 2012.
Tsujimoto K. and Koike T.: Land-lake breezes at low latitudes:
The case of Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia, Journal of GeophysicalResearch: Atmospheres 118, 6970-6980, 2013.
Xue, M., K. K. Droegemeier, and V. Wong: The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) — A multiscale nonhydrostatic atmospheric simulation and prediction tool. Part I: Model dynamics
and verification. Meteor. Atmos. Physics., 75, 161-193, 2000.
Xue, M., et al.: The Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) —A multiscale nonhydrostatic atmospheric simulation and prediction
tool. Part II: Model physics and applications. Meteor. Atmos. Physics., 76, 134-165, 2001.
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Sofia KISELYOVA1, Elena GOLUBEVA2, Elena GLUKHOVA2,
Tatyana KOROL2, Andrey KUDINOV1, Aleksey SAYANOV2
1
Laboratory of Renewable Resource, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University
2
Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University

Potential of renewableenergy in developmentof green economy in the
Baikal region
United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (“Rio + 20”),
held in June 2012 in Rio de Janeiro, in fact summed up twenty yearsof attempts to change the traditional type of human development ona sustainable development model, which is based on the formationof a “green” economy. An important feature of this economy is theefficient use of natural resources, preservation and increase of natural
capital, reduction of environmental pollution, low carbon emissions,prevention of loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services, the growthof income and employment. The transition from the traditionalmodel of economic growth to the “green” economy can be consideredas the global trend, which determines the stability of not only theindividual national economies, but also of the entire planet [5].
For our country’s special role in the implementation of the concept oftransition to “green” economy plays the energy sector, which is a significant consumer of hydrocarbons and the polluter [6]. These issues can belargely resolved by the wider use of renewable energy (RE), which dueto the natural and socio-economic characteristics, can become the mostpopular in the regions of Siberia and the Far East. One of the competitive
advantages for the development of Energy of the Republic of Buryatia
and the Irkutsk region are — among other factors — the presence of asignificant amount of energy for the development of renewable energy.
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Objects and methods of research
In the present work, a comparative study of natural capital andsocio-economic factors that lead to the possibility and relevanceof renewable energy development in the Irkutsk region and theRepublic of Buryatia. The main attention is paid to the analysis of
the potential of solar and wind energy, but no less important is thepotential of small hydro and bioenergy through the use of waste
timber and woodworking industry. Areas considered subjects of theFederation are characterized by varying degrees of availability of
traditional energy resources, as well as the level of their production and use.
In the Irkutsk region there are significant reserves of coal andlignite, oil, gas and hydropower. In the area of being a large-scalecoal mining, gas and gas condensate, however, until now it has oneof the lowest areas of gasification performance, resulting in gas supply to consumers is provided mostly dry and liquefied petroleum gas
refineries and from external sources.
Republic of Buryatia, has large reserves of brown coal, which isthe basis of the thermal power generation and exports; gas supply
to the consumers of the republic is carried out on the basis of liquefied natural gas from external sources. As a result, from the point ofview of energy balance Irkustk area it is energy, and the Republic of
Buryatia — area with insufficient energy of the Russian Federation.
However, in the territory of both regions is a range of energy-deficient areas with an autonomous power supply due to the significant
removal of them from the centralized power of highways, lack of gas
transport infrastructure, energy networks depreciation of fixed assets (depreciation reaches 60%). As a result, the share of the population receiving electricity in a limited mode of autonomous diesel
plants is high (up to 39 times — up to 100%), even in some areas ofthe energy surplus of the Irkutsk region.
Results
The results of the analysis of the renewable energy of natural capital,
which implies the supply of natural energy resources of the territory,
the use of which for production purposes is currently possible. The
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above definition merges with the concept of the technical potentialof renewable energy resources, which, according to [1], is defined as apart of the gross (theoretical) potential, which is the conversion into
useful energy is possible with the current level of development oftechnical means and in compliance with the requirements for environment protection. For its part, referred to as gross potential annual
energy contained in this form of renewable energy source (RES) at agiven point or in the territory in full its transformation into usefulenergy used.
The focus of this work is given the resources of solar and windenergy of the Republic of Buryatia and Irkutsk region.
Geographical features of the Irkutsk region and the Republicof Buryatia define high potential of solar and wind energy. At
the same time due to weather conditions and latitudinal locationof specific energy characteristics of the incident solar radiation
at any orientation of the receiving surface is slightly higher in
Buryatia (the average value of the daily amount of total solar
radiation coming onto the horizontal surface are 3.0–4.0 kWh/m 2 /day ) than in the Irkutsk region (2.5–3.5 kWh/m 2 /day). The
amount of wind resources in the Irkutsk region and the Republic of Buryatia is not so great and changeable. It is defined asa macro-circulation processes and orographic structure of theterrain. Considerably weakened by air transport in the mountainvalleys, where his speed in most cases does not exceed 1 m/s at aheight measuring vane. The maximum wind energy performanceis characterized by the west coast of Lake Baikal (the averageannual wind speed of 5–8 m/s). The increase in wind intensity
activity characteristic of the ridge and watershed areas of thehighlands, but its precise quantitative assessment is difficult due
to lack of routine observations [2].
Technical resources for heat production are determined as thebasis of specific annual heat output of typical solar water heating
systems (estimates 1996). It was assumed that the SWH can take nomore than 0.8% of the area in each subject of the Russian Federation.
Technical resource for electricity production is estimated basedon the fact that the area occupied by the solar installation occupies
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0.1% of the territory of the RF subject, efficiency solar converters was
assumed to be 15%.
Economic resources for heat production are calculated based on the following assumptions:
1. Installation of hot water are effective only in those territories
where their specific annual capacity is more than half of 0.52
GCal/m2 (typical value for the climatic and economic conditions of the North Caucasus).
2. Plants solar hot water can potentially be provided by 50% of
the population in rural areas and 10% of the urban population.
3. One person, provided with hot water from a solar installation,
we have 1 m2 solar collector.
However, these estimates do not allow an analysis of the spatial
distribution of resources, and obtain — for the resources of wind andsolar energy — solely on the basis of meteorological observations.
At the same time, weather stations on the territory of Buryatia arefew, and only two stations — and Bagdarin, Ivolginsk — spend actinometrical measurement. In this regard, we have to prepare data
sets for solar energy resource data NASA SSE climate database wereused [4], thematically focused on renewable energy needs and contains an array of data with high spatial resolution (1x1 degree ofgeographical coordinates) [3]. To justify the use of this data set, wehave carried out a comparison of the incident solar radiation values
obtained by ground-based measurements (weather station data) andmathematical modeling in conjunction with the satellite monitoring(NASA SSE data).
Seasonal Distribution of monthly average daily amounts of total
solar radiation incident on a horizontal surface, and direct solar radiation incident on a surface normal to the line for two of the analyzed solar radiation stations shown in Fig. 1. From the analysis of
the graphs it can be seen that the use of the database NASASSE forsolar energy resource assessment in the territory of Buryatia and the
Irkutsk region is justified. During the comparison, it was found thatthe relative error of NASA δ data are as follows: for the total solar
radiation falling on a horizontal surface under Bagdarin, δ = 0,10%,
according to the article. Ivolginsk δ = 0,17%. For direct solar radia180

Plenary Reports

Fig. 1. Comparison of the distribution of monthly per diem amounts of total solar
radiation incident on a horizontal surface (a, b), and direct solar radiation incident on asurface normal to the line (c, d) according to the weather stations and data NASASSE.

tion incident on a surface normal to the line of art. Bagdarin deviation δ = 0,33%, according to the article. Ivolginsk δ = 0,42%. Using
DB NASASSE arrays of incident solar radiation data were preparedand mapped, which can then be used for the assessment and zoning
for solar energy resources.
Above, we have already been given data on the average windspeeds in the territory of the Republic of Buryatia and Irkutsk region. Average annual wind speed at the meteorological stations of
the territory in question are low: 4.8 to 1,3 m/s. To assess the pos181

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sibility of using wind as an energy source is necessary to define andanalyze the repeatability of energy active winds and the power ofthe wind flow. At most stations with an average annual wind speedof about 2 m/s wind energy active repeatability (speed of 5 m/s) is
not more than 10-20%. Only on the coast of Lake Baikal, it reaches
50% in December, but varies greatly throughout the year. Specificpower of the wind flow N (W/m2 , the sweeping wind wheel) for mostof the territory does not exceed 25 W/m2 at an altitude measuringvane. On the shores of Lake Baikal specific power of the wind flow
can exceed 500 W/m2 , but varies greatly by season. Sufficiently highlevel of wind energy potential is celebrated in winter in mountainous regions — 90-160 W/m2 at its extremely low values in summer — less than 1 W/m2 .
In the Republic of Buryatia, the greatest number of days withstrong winds (15 m/s and more) are usually in areas where the average speed of its enhanced. For example, in Barguzin number of days
per year with high wind speeds (15 m/s and above) is 70, Ulan-Ude-31 Novoselenginsk –24, –25 Kyakhta. The amplification of windspeed occurs in spring (March, April, May) and during this period
there is more than 60% of days with strong winds from the total
number of average cases. In November and December it is dominated by the winds of the northern areas at a rate of 2 to 5–6 m/s, andin winter in the same direction, wind speed decreases to 1–2 m/s.
Calm Winter weather causes significant cooling air sedentary, andlarge industrial sites (Ulan-Ude, Gusinoozerskaya) lead to a sharp
increase in pollution of the atmosphere with the formation of frosty
mist. In the summer, the prevailing westerly winds, increasing thenumber of eastern and southern winds, the rate of which varies
from 3–6 m/c on the coast of Lake Baikal 1–2 m/c in the rest of thecountry.
With the winds of the western points of the compass are always connected abundant precipitation. Thus, due to the low background wind speeds in most areas of the Irkutsk region and theRepublic of Buryatia the use of wind as an energy source may be
a promising only on the coast of Lake Baikal and in the mountainous areas.
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Fig. 2. Photocells and solar panels on private house (Ulan-Ude) — A. Sun collectors on
the roof of the hotel “Baikal Plaza” area of 150 m2 (Ulan-Ude) - B.

Experience in the use of renewable energy
in these regions
Currently, in the Republic of Buryatia are practically no energy generating wind power facilities, however, achieved significant-given
the overall low level of development of renewable energy in Russiaprogress on the use of solar energy for heating and hot water (Fig. 2).
Thus, according to the Center for Energy Efficient Technologies (LLC
“CFEET” Buryatia), in the country in 2000–2008 was built 75 solar
water heating installations with total area of 3190 m2. These plants
generate about 2.5 thousand KWh of thermal energy per year andprevent 1,200 tons of harmful emissions into the atmosphere.
The specific natural and economic conditions are difficult and isolated from the power consumers of the Irkutsk region, taking into
account resource availability creates the preconditions for the useof different types of renewable energy that can be a complement to
the existing sources of energy (diesel power), thereby reducing theamounts of increasingly expensive fuel oil.
Conclusion
Renewable energy sources are used in the territory of the Baikal region in an amount not corresponding to the real needs and potential.
In the Irkutsk region there are only a few objects and projects in this183

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field; priority for the conditions of the Irkutsk region are consideredsmall and mini hydro power plants of various types, depending on
the terrain and slope riverbeds. In the Republic of Buryatia are practically no energy generating wind power facilities, however, achieved
significant — given the very weak development of renewable energy
in Russia as a whole — success on the use of solar energy for heatingand hot water via solar collectors.
In some cases, for power autonomous consumers a combination of
expensive generation based on renewable energy sources with lowcost (to the capital cost point of view) — it is necessary on the basisof the diesel engine; while achieving a reduction in the total cost of
installation, provided the stability of energy supply and saving expensive diesel fuel. Prospects for optimizing the energy balance inthe region through the use of solar and wind energy.
This research work was supported by the Russian Foundation for
Fundamental Investigations (RFFI) project № 15-05-01788 A.

1.

2.
3.

4.
5.
6.

References
Bezrukikh P.P., Degtyarev V.V., etc. Resources of renewable energy
sources of Russia and types of fuel, Moscow, «IAC Energy», 2007 —272 p. [In Russian].
Borisenko M., Stadnyk V.V. Atlases of wind and solar climates of
Russia. St. Petersburg, 1997 [In Russian].
Popel O.S., Frid S.E., Kolomiets Y.G., Kiseleva S.V. Terekhov
E.N. Atlas of solar energy resources in Russia. — Moscow, OIVTRAS, 2010, 84 p. [In Russian].
http://www.eosweb.larc.nasa.gov
http:// www.ecodelo.org
http://www.rusnauka.com

184

Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

Yudai AOYAGIGeotechnical Engineering Laboratory, Department of Civil
Engineering, The University of Tokyo
Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment entitled:

Experimental study
on gentle slope failure
by the Kumamoto
earthquake in 2016
INTRODUCTIONOn April 14, 2016, a Mw= 6.2
earthquake struck at the Kumamoto City of Kumamoto Prefecture in Kyusyu Region, Japan,
followed by Mw= 7.0 main-shock
on April 16. The area between
Kumamoto City and Mount Aso
was most badly affected (Fig. 1).
The two earthquakes killed atleast 49 people, about 3000 injured and displacing more than
44,000 residents. Thousands ofbuildings and many roads were
Fig. 1. The seismic intensity map by USGS
damaged, and landslides oc(http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/
curred.
eventpage/us20005iis#shakemap)
The survey was conducted by
New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering / Geotechnical Engineering Laboratory, the University of Tokyo joint investigation team for the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake.
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Photo1. Large landslide flows on the gentle
slopesLANDSLIDE FLOWS ON GENTLE
SLOPE
Near the Kyoto University researchfacilities, large landslide on the
gentle slopes of about 10 degree tilt
occurred (Photo 1). This is believed
to be due to pumice layer containing water being subjected to groundmotion, inducing “liquefaction” phenomenon.

Photo. 1

Kyoto Univ. research facilities

Fig. 2. Borehole data around Kyoto Univ. research facilities (http://geonews.zenchiren.
or.jp/2016KumamotoEQ/index.html)

Photo2. Stacked-ring shear apparatus

186

EXPERIMENTAL TEST
To investigate mechanism oflandslide flows on gentle slope,
we are planning to conduct
the cyclic and monotonic loading test on pumice using newly
developed apparatus so-called“Stacked-ring shear apparatus”(Photo 2).
The stacked-ring is composedby 5 pieces of vertically arranged

Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

donut shape metal rings. Prior to the application of monotonic loading up to more than 1,000% shear strain, cyclic shear loading isapplied (Fig. 3).

䃣㻦㻌㻿㼔㼑㼍㼞㻌㼟㼠㼞㼑㼟㼟peakstacstac+cyclic ’V䃒㻯㼥㼏㼘㼕㼏㻌
㼘㼛㼍㼐㼕㼚㼓

㻹㼛㼚㼛㼠㼛㼚㼕㼏㻌㼘㼛㼍㼐㼕㼚㼓

䃒㻦㻌㻿㼔㼑㼍㼞㻌㼟㼠㼞㼍㼕㼚

’H

’H

stac+cyclic
’V
BEDROCK

Fig. 3. Stress conditions during loading

1.

REFERENCES
M 7.0 — 1km E of Kumamoto-shi, Japan, USGS Earthquake
Hazards Program, 22 Jan. 2017 <http://earthquake.usgs.gov/
earthquakes/eventpage/us20005iis#shakemap> 2016 Kumamoto
Earthquake borehole data (in Japanese), Japan GeotechnicalConsultants Association, 22 Jan. 2017 http://geonews.zenchiren.
or.jp/2016KumamotoEQ/index.html

All figures are clippings from the poster we used in the presentation
at the 3rd Russian–Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment.

187

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Hiroaki IKEUCHI1, 2, Yukiko HIRABAYASHI1, 2,
Dai YAMAZAKI3
1
Department of Civil Engineering, the University of Tokyo,
2
Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo,
Japan,
3
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for
Sustainable Environment entitled:

Experimental study
on gentle slope failure
by the Kumamoto
earthquake in 2016

INTRODUCTION
Mega-delta regions in Southeast Asia are vulnerable to multiple
flood disasters such as fluvial floods and coastal storm surges[Wong et al. 2014]. Simultaneous occurrence of these two phenomena may cause more severe inundation in low-lying coastal
regions than in isolation [Kew et al. 2013], [Klerk et al. 2015]. In
addition, future climate change driven by global warming would
exacerbate fluvial flood risk [Hirabayashi et al. 2013]. However,studies dealing with both river and coastal floods have been
limited within relatively small scale applications that are notsufficient for large-scale analysis including mega-delta regions,and global- or large-scale studies have not handled both of them.
Hence, the present study addresses this research gap: quantification of compound risk of fluvial floods and storm surges in
the Ganges Delta, which is one of the largest deltaic regions in
the world.
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METHODS
A global river routing model, CaMa-Flood [Yamazaki et al. 2011], wasutilised in this study. Explicitly representing flood inundation dynamics, the model has been proved to have a good skill in reproducing flood inundation extent.
One previous study demonstrated for the first time the potential impact of future sea level rise on fluvial flooding by using
CaMa-Flood [Ikeuchi et al. 2015], owing to the incorporation of
the backwater effect in river discharge calculation. However, theyneglected spatiotemporal variation of coastal water levels causedby ocean tides and surges. In this study, we advance this approachto achieve modelling fluvial flooding and coastal storm surges in
the Ganges Delta.
Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset has recently
been released, which is the world’s first reanalysis of global coastal
water levels [Muis et al. 2016], and was coupled with CaMa-Floodin this study to simulate tide and surge impacts on fluvial floodinundation.
The storm surge event caused by Cyclone Sidr in 2007, Bay of
Bengal, was taken in this study, which caused severe damage in the
GBM Delta. The simulation domain was the whole Ganges River basins as shown in Figure 1.

Fig. 1. The calculation domain and the river network map in CaMa-Flood.

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Fig. 2. Validation of river discharge of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers modelled by
CaMa-Flood against observation. The grey and red lines are observation and simulation,
respectively.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONFirst the river and coastal models were separately validated against
observation. For validation of CaMa-Flood, modelled river discharges
were compared with observed data of Institute of Water Modellingas shown in Figure 2. Correlation coefficients in the Ganges and theBrahmaputra rivers were 0.82 and 0.92 in the Brahmaputra respectively, indicating that the model can reasonably capture seasonalvariability of river discharge.
Figure 3 shows the coastal model’s performance to reproduce
storm surge height caused by the cyclone. Observed data were derived from previous literature [JSCE 2008]. The model was found tosimulate the reported extreme water levels.
190

Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

Fig. 3. Left: validation of the storm surge model. The coloured dots are observations,and the grey line is the simulation results. Right: geographical locations of points inobservations and simulation

Finally we conducted a compound simulation of fluvial floods andstorm surges in the case of Cyclone Sidr in the Ganges Delta. Figure
4 shows the flood inundated area after Cyclone Sidr’s landfall there.
It shows that inclusion of the coastal model into the river model exhibited better reproducibility of flood inundation extent.

Fig. 4. Left: Flood inundation extent (the red colour means inundated areas) derived from
Dartmouth Flood Observatory. Centre and right: flood inundated areas within two days
after the cyclone landfall with and without coastal model’s outputs

1.

REFERENCES
Hirabayashi Y., Mahendran R., Koirala S., Konoshima L.,
Yamazaki D,. Watanabe S., Kim H. and Kanae S., 2013. Global ﬂood risk under climate change Nature Climate Change 3 816–21.
191

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

2.

3.

4.
5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

Ikeuchi H., Hirabayashi Y., Yamazaki D., Kiguchi M., Koirala S.,
Nagano T., Kotera A. and Kanae S., 2015. Modeling complex flow
dynamics of fluvial floods exacerbated by sea level rise in the GangesBrahmaputra-Meghna Delta Environmental Research Letters 10 12401.
Ikeuchi H., Hirabayashi Y., Yamazaki D., Muis S., Ward P. J.,
Verlaan M., Winsemius H.C. and Kanae S. Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global river-coast coupling model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone
Sidr in Bangladesh (in revision).
Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE) 2008. Investigation Report on the Storm Surge Disaster by Cyclone SIDR in 2007, Bangladesh.
Kew S.F, Selten F.M, Lenderink G. and Hazeleger W., 2013.
The simultaneous occurrence of surge and discharge extremes for theRhine delta Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13 2017–29.
Klerk W.J., Winsemius H.C., van Verseveld W.J, Bakker A M R andDiermanse F L M, 2015. The co-incidence of storm surges and extreme discharges within the Rhine-Meuse Delta Environmental Research Letters 10 9.
Muis S., Verlaan M., Winsemius H.C., Aerts J C J H and
Ward P.J., 2016. A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme
sea levels Nature Communications 7 11969.
Wong P.P., Losada I.J., Gattuso J.P., Hinkel J., Khattabi A.,
McInnes K.L., Saito Y. and Sallenger A., 2014. Coastal systems
and low-lying areas, in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation,
and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contributionof Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by Field C B, Barros V R,
Dokken D J, Mach K J, Mastrandrea M D, Bilir T E, Chatterjee M, Ebi
K L, Estrada Y O, Genova R C, Girma B, Kissel E S, Levy A N, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea P R and White L L 361–409 Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
Yamazaki D., Kanae S., Kim H.and Oki T., 2011. A physically
based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model Water Resources Research 47 21.

All figures are clippings from the poster we used in the presentation
at the 3rd Russian–Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment.

192

Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

Genki KAWAMURA, Akiyuki KAWASAKI
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo
Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment entitled:

Geographical characteristicsof flood and poverty —the case study in Myanmar
INTRODUCTION
In 2015, UN States Members adopted Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs), whose priority is to eliminate poverty by 2030. Poverty
has been an important problem since the past and it’s getting more
attention recently. Poverty is a complex phenomenon because countless factors may cause poor condition. Recently, disasters are focused
as it can affect a bad influence on poverty.
On the other hand, flood frequency is estimated to increase around
South East Asian countries, including Myanmar (Hirabayashi et al.
2013). Thus it is important to know the situation and characteristics
of people who are living in flooded areas.
In such a situation, it is well documented that the poor live inthe riskiest environments like on floodplains or other areas at highrisk of flood in urban area (Satterthwaite et al. 2007) and there aremany studies which focused on the relationship between poverty
and disasters (Olsson et al. 2014). Some of them analyzed how climate change would affect poverty in country-scale (Wisner et al.
1994; Stephane Hallegatte et al. 2015; Winsemius et al. 2015). Oneof them says that across countries, poor people are over-exposedto droughts and urban floods (Winsemius et al. 2015). Anotherstudy suggests that poor people are seen as the most vulnerable toflood effects of natural hazards and disasters can have long-term
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economic consequences for those in poorest conditions (Dercon2004). But it is also indicated that the situations strongly differ
across countries and regions (Winsemius et al. 2015). Though
there are many studies about the topic, studies which focusedon the relationship between flood and poverty can’t be said to beenough so far.
TARGET AREA
Bago city, Myanmar, is the target area of the research (Figure 1).
Bago city is the fourth biggest city in Myanmar whose populationis around 400 thousand in urban area and there was a dynasty inthe past.
Myanmar is developing rapidly after the democratization in 2011.
Bago city is located at the cross point of the two big roads; YangonMandalay rail road which connects two biggest cities in Myanmarand ADB East-West Economic Corridor which is under construction.
Moreover, a new airport is going to be constructed at the outskirts

Fig. 1. The location of Bago city and the location of households

194Poster Presentations / Japanese Contributionof Bago city. Considering thesituations above, Bago city is
estimated to develop rapidly
as well. However, Bago city isannually flooded and poverty
is becoming a problem. Urgent
countermeasures are required
due to the rapid progress
which may increase the gap of
the rich and the poor in the future while there are almost no
studies about this topic in thisarea. Therefore some information for the decision making isneeded for the area.

Fig. 2, 3, 4. Relationship between the income
level and flood depth categorized by theaverage age of a household

Fig. 5. Relationship between the financialpressure after the flood in 2011 and flood depth
categorized by the average age of a household

SURVEY RESULTS
Figures 2, 3, 4 and 5 show the
relationship of household factors with flood depth categorized by the average age of ahousehold. It is shown thathouseholds whose age is highare living in better conditions
than the ones of low age as
for house type, education level and income level. It is also
confirmed that households
which experienced higher level of flood tend to be in worse
conditions. Moreover, lower
aged households also tend tohave experienced more financial pressure than the ones ofhigher age. The map is shownin Figure 6 as for the income
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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Fig. 6. Relationship between the financial pressure after the flood in 2011 and flood depth
categorized by the average age of a household

level and it can be seen that there are more low-income householdson the right figure which shows the households whose average age
is under 30 years old.
As a consequence, it is said that households which experienced
higher floods and whose average age is lower tend to live in worse
conditions as for the house type, education level and income level.
They also suffered more

1.

2.

3.

REFERENCES
Dercon, Stefan. 2004. “Growth and Shocks: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia.” Journal of Development Economics 74 (2): 309–29.
doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2004.01.001.
Hallegatte, Stephane, Mook Bangalore, Laura Bonzanigo,
Marianne Fay, Tamaro Kane, Ulf Narloch, Julie Rozenberg,David Treguer, and Adrien Vogt-schilb. 2015. “Poverty and Climate Change : Natural Disasters, Agricultural Impacts and Health
Shocks” The World Bank Group 369–89.
Hirabayashi, Yukiko, Roobavannan Mahendran, Sujan Koirala, Lisako Konoshima, Dai Yamazaki, Satoshi Watanabe,196

Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

4.

5.

6.

7.

Hyungjun Kim, and Shinjiro Kanae. 2013. “Global Flood Risk
under Climate Change.” Nature Publishing Group 3 (9). Nature Publishing Group: 816–21. doi:10.1038/nclimate1911.
Olsson, L., M. Opondo, P. Tschakert, A. Agrawal, S.H. Eriksen, S. Ma, L.N. Perch and S.A. Zakieldeen, 2014: Livelihoods
and poverty. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, andVulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution ofWorking Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J.
Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L.
Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S.
MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY,
USA, pp. 793-832.
Satterthwaite, David, Saleemul Huq, Mark Pelling, Hannah
Reid, and Patricia Romero Lankao. 2007. “Adapting to Climate Change in Urban Areas: the possibilities and constraints inlow- and middle-income nations”, Human Settlements Discussion
Paper Series.
Winsemius, H.C., B. Jongman, T.I.E. Veldkamp, S. Hallegatte, M. Bangalore, and P.J. Ward. 2015. “Disaster Risk, Climate Change, and Poverty: Assessing the Global Exposure of Poor
People to Floods and Droughts”, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 7480.
Wisner, Ben, Piers Blaikie, Terry Cannon and Ian Davis.
1994. “At Risk: Natural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and Disasters (Second Edition)”.

All figures are clippings from the poster we used in the presentation
at the 3rd Russian–Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment.

197

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Yuki KIMURA1, 2, Yukiko HIRABAYASHI1,
Masahiro TANOUE1, Yukiko IMADA 3
1
Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo, Japan2
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japan
3
Climate Research Department, Japan
Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment entitled:

An event attributionof the 2012 Amazon flood

INTRODUCTION
It is predicted that global warming increase the flood occurrence[Hirabayashi et al. 2013]. Additionally, the latest IPCC report indicates that it is possible global warming increases the probability of extreme event, for example heavy rainfall, river flood andso on. [IPCC 5th report 2014]. Be based on this background, Event
Attribution technique, which quantifies contribution of humaninduced global warming on recent extreme event using a numberof ensemble of past climate by Atmospheric General Circulation
Model(AGCM), is invented [Pall et al 2011]. Due to the limitation ofriver models implemented in AGCMs, however, an application of EA
is limited for climate variables such as heat wave and precipitation.
Hence, We therefore conducted a number of ensemble simulation ofriver discharge using a river and inundation model forced by runoff
obtained from EA experiments and applied to the data to quantify
how global warming increases on 2012 Amazon flood.
2012 AMAZON FLOOD
During 2011/2012, intense rainfall was reported in a large part ofnorthern Amazonas basin, which led to anomalously discharge since198

Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

January 2012. On 19 April, The discharge at Tamshiyacu station (Fig.
1) attained 55400m3/s, which is the highest value recorded in the
Peruvian Amazonas River. This situation caused inundations in themain cities in Peruvian Amazon basin and affected about 140000
people [Espinoza et al 2012].

Fig. 1. Relationship between the financial pressure after the flood in 2011 and flood depth
categorized by the average age of a household

DATASETEA experiment datasets are made by using MIROC5 AGCM forced bysurface sea temperature (SST), sea ice distribution (SID) and external
forcing. In EA experiment datasets, there are three kinds of data. First
one is ALL scenario, which is 100 ensemble historical simulation
between 2010 and 2014. Second one is NAT scenario, which is 100
ensemble non global simulation between 2010 and 2014. Final one
is ALL-LNG scenario, which is 10 ensemble long historical scenario
between 1949 and 2013. Boundary conditions of ALL scenario are all
external forcing (greenhouse gas, change of solar radiation, volcanic
activity and so on), observed SST and SID. On the other hand, Boundary conditions of NAT scenario are external forcing except inducedby human, SST and SID without global warming influence. However,to consider uncertainty of remove global warming influence, we use
2 NAT scenario. One is NAT_CMIP5, the other is NAT_dtr.
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METHODS
We employed CaMa-Flood [Yamazaki et al. 2011], global hydrodynamic
model. EA experiment river discharge dataset is made by conducting
CaMa-Flood simulation forced by runoff obtained from EA experiments.
We use FAR method to quantify how global warming influence on
2012 Amazon flood, which is defined as follows [Hamaguchi et al 2014].

FAR = (PA — PN) / PA

(1)

Where PA is the probability of flood occurrence in ALL, PN in
NAT. Then, Threshold of flood is defined as return period 10 years in
ALL-LNG (82,429m3/s). When FAR value is positive (negative), global warming increases (decreases) the possibility of flood occurrence.
Because we can’t gain Tamshiyacu station data, We chose one
observed station, Sao Pauko De Olivenca (SPO) station (Figure1), anddrew cumulative distribution function based on 100 ensemble riverdischarge at SPO station. Then, we quantify how global warming
influence on 2012 Amazon Flood.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Fig. 2 shows cumulative distribution function based on 100 ensemble
river discharge at SPO station in each scenario. Blue line is bigger
than green line, so Natural variability in 2012 made flood easier to occur even without global warming. Additionally, red line is bigger thanblue line, global warming increases probability of 2012 Amazon flood.
The probability of flood occurrence in ALL scenario is 17.7%, in NATFig. 2. Cumulative distribution function
based on annual max discharge based on EA
river discharge experiment. In case of ALL,
NAT_CMIP5 and NAT_dtr, 100 ensemble
annual max river discharge in 2012. In caseof ALL-LNG, CDF is drawn based on 10
ensemble annual max discharge between
1949 and 2013 (10×65 years). Blue dot line
shows threshold of flood (82,429m3/s).

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CMIP5 scenario 9.1%, in NAT-dtr scenario 11.5%. FAR is calculated
based on formula (1). FAR value is 0.48 in case of NAT-CMIP5 scenario, 0.35 in NAT-dtr scenario. These result indicated that human influence increased probabilities of the 2012 flood in Amazon to 35-48%.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

REFERENCES
Hirabayashi Y., Mahendran R., Koirala S., Konoshima L.,
Yamazaki D., Watanabe S., Kim H. and Kanae S. 2013 Global
flood risk under climate change Nature Climate Change 3 816–21
Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Dokken, D.J., Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M.D., Bilir, T.E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K.L., Estrada,
Y.O., Genova, R.C., Girma, B., Kissel, E.S., Levy, A.N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P.R. and White, L.L.: IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group II to theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press,
Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, p. 1–32, 2014.
Pall, P., Aina T., Stone, D.A., Stott, P.A., Nozawa, T., Hilberts, A.G.J., Lohmann, D. and Allen, M.R.: An-thropogenic
greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales inautumn 2000, Nature 470, 382–385 doi:10.1038/nature09762, 2011.
Espinoza, J.C., Ronchail, J., Frappart, F., Lavado, W., Santini, W. and Guyoto, J.L.: The major Floods in the Amazonas
River and Yributaries (Western Amazon Basin) during the
1970–2012 Period: A focus on the 2012 Flood, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 14, 1000–1008, 2013.
Yamazaki D., Kanae S., Kim H. and Oki T. 2011 A physically
based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model Water Resources Research 47 21
Kohei Hamaguchi, Yukiko Imada, Hideo Shiogama, Shinjiro
Kanae: Ayttribution ANAKYSIS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN PAKISTAN IN 2010 USING EVENT ATTRIBUTION EXPERIMENTS,
JSCE hydraulic engineering, Vol.70, No.4, I_565-I_570, 2014

All figures are clippings from the poster we used in the presentation
at the 3rd Russian–Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment.

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Hiroya MAEDA1, Yoshihide SEKIMOTO2,
Toshikazu SETO3
1
Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo,
Japan
2
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japan
3
Climate Research Department, Japan
Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment entitled:

An event attributionof the 2012 Amazon flood

INTRODUCTION
Much of the infrastructure in Japan was developed during a periodof high economic growth. Because more than 50 years have elapsed
since this infrastructure’s construction, it is assumed that aging will
progress rapidly in the future. In fact, because of a lack of financial
and professional resources, some local governments in Japan are unable to carry out adequate inspections.
In the context of this difficult situation surrounding maintenanceof such infrastructure, in recent years advanced municipalities aroundthe world have taken full advantage of information and communication
technology (ICT) for improving public service delivery [1]. Most local
governments now operate websites to exchange and share information
with citizens about local problems such as potholes on the road [3].
This paper studies a citizen-driven system for local public service improvement in Chiba City (Chiba Report: http://chibarepo.force.com/). Thissystem is called ‘Chibarepo’. It enables citizens in Chiba City to report andshare information about local problems such as potholes, graffiti, broken
paving slabs, or street lighting using images and location information.
Hence, there is large amount of accumulated information about damaged
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Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

infrastructures submitted as reports from citizens. However, citizen-submitted data from Chibarepo is spatially and qualitatively biased. Therefore, it is insufficient for conducting infrastructure maintenance.
In this study, in order to compensate for the lack of reporting on
roadways (highways), we took videos of road surfaces using an onboard smartphone and created a model that determines the presenceor absence of damage to the road surface based on the videos taken.
And we also indicate the possibility of automatic classification of images submitted by citizens through Chibarepo.
OUR APPROACH
Fig. 1 shows the distribution of locations for reports received from citizens through Chibarepo during the period of September 2014 to August
2015. As can be seen Fig. 1, information gathered by citizens has spatial
deviation. There are some routes with no reports and some with many
reports. Therefore, we complement this deviating but voluminous infor-

Fig. 1. The distribution of reported locations. Data were spatially concentrated aroundpopulated areas and well-known hotspots (e.g., Chiba Station)

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mation by combining videos ofroads taken by smartphones ina way that can be carried out
easily by anyone.
For simplicity and ease,
we chose an approach focusedaround using transfer learning to quickly create and train
Table 1. Training data set
neural networks. AlexNet [2]and GoogLeNet [4] were used and compared as models in this research.
AlexNet was the first work that popularized CNNs in computer vision,and contains 5 convolutional and 3 fully connected layers. GoogLeNet
was designed to be a direct improvement over AlexNet for the task ofclassifying ImageNet.
In this study, we traveled 500 km in Chiba City and captured videoof the road surface. First, we trimmed the 256×256 region reflectedfrom the road surface in video obtained during the road suface measurement experiment. Second, we cut out images from the 256×256
video at the rate of 1 to 0.5 seconds.
Finally, we asked local government officials to determine visuallywhether there was damage or not in the images. At that time, 3 categories were determined: “there is no damage (0),” “there is damage,but no need for repair (1),” and “there is damage, in need of repair (2).”Those 3 categories are used ordinarily in municipality infrastructure
inspections. As a result, we obtained 1,003 images in total constituting the training data set (Table 2).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Results
We performed a single experiment that applied each model to raw
pixel data for 10,000 iterations with a learning rate of 0.001 and a decay rate of 0.9. Each of the three classes of images were divided into
5 groups of images, and we performed 5-fold cross validation. As the
structure of the neural network, we adopted AlexNet and GoogLeNet.
The results are shown in Fig. 4 and Table 2. The accuracy at 10,000
iterations was 90% for AlexNet and 93% for GoogLeNet (Table 2).
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Fig. 2. Test accuracy, training loss,
processing speed(a) represents test accuracy, (b) represents
training loss, (c) represents learning time

Prediction

TrueClass Precision

(0)

(1)

(2)

(0)

480

1

3

99%

(1)

37

425

22

88%

(2)

7

63

475

87%

91%

85%

95%

ACCURACY=90%

Class Recall

Table 2. Confusion matrix AlexNet

Prediction

TrueClass Precision

(0)

(1)

(2)

(0)

480

11

1

99%

(1)

15

441

25

88%

(2)

5

48

474

87%

96%

88%

95%

ACCURACY=93%

Class Recall

Table 3. Confusion matrix GoogLeNet

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Discussion
Examining Table 2 and table
3, it can be seen that erroneous determination with respect to “Damaged. No Needfor Repair (1)” and “Damaged, in Need of Repair(2)” stand out. This study
Table 4. Example of an erroneous determination
was commissioned to create
training data set for each civil engineering office jurisdiction, anddetermination criteria between the different offices are slightly different (Table 4). These differences are considered to have been amajor factor in erroneous determinations. It is expected that, by
clarifying the criteria for training data classification, determination accuracy will be improved. However, in this study, the models
were trained by the training data created by a civil engineering officer. This is very meaningful.
REFERENCES
1.	King, S. F., & Brown, P. (December 2007). Fix my street or else:using the internet to voice local public service concerns. In Proceedings of the 1st international conference on Theory and practice ofelectronic governance (p. 72-80). ACM.
2.	Krizhevsky, A., Sutskever, I., & Hinton, G. E. (2012). Imagenet
classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advancesin neural information processing systems (p. 1097-1105).
3. Offenhuber, D. (2014). Infrastructure legibility — a comparative
analysis of open311-based citizen feedback systems. Cambridge
Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, rsu001.
4. Szegedy, C., Liu, W., Jia, Y., Sermanet, P., Reed, S., Anguelov, D., ... & Rabinovich, A. (2015). Going deeper withconvolutions. In Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (p. 1-9). model forced byrunoff obtained from EA experiments and applied to the data
to quantify how global warming increases on 2012 Amazon
flood.
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Yuta MAEKAWA1, Takuya MIKI2, Satoshi NISHIMURA 2
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo
2
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japan1

Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment entitled:

Evaluation of secondary
consolidation in peats basedon Isotache model
INTRODUCTION
Peat is piled up the remain of plant residue which the resolution isinadequate for in cold and humid conditions.
Peat is distributed in Russia and Hokkaido in Japan. Peat has
many characteristics. Those are high water content, high compressibility (large secondary consolidation) and small unit weight. Becauseof these characteristics, peat is classified “Special soil”. These characteristics make some problems at Hokkaido. For example, uneven
subsidence occurred at Hokkaido highway road. Compared to othersoil or clay’s subsidence, peat’s subsidence is large.

Fig. 1. Uneven subsidence of highway

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Fig. 2. Conceptual diagram of Isotache modelFig. 3. e-log p’ of CRS test

Fig. 3. ε-log p’ of CRS test and S.L test

208

METHODS
Isot ache model is consolidate
model with due regard to viscosity. The e-log p’ relation isdetermined by the strain rate.
The lines which are different
strain rate are parallel andthe lines are unambiguously
determined by strain rate.
This indicates that secondary
consolidation is not depended
on pressure. It is depend on
secondary consolidation coefficient (Cα). If different strain
rate is 10 times, Cα can be calculated.
There are many researches
about Isotache model. But, researches of peat’s secondary
consolidation based on Isotache model are not so many.
Therefore, applicability ofpeat’s secondary consolidation
based on Isotache model was
evaluated by constant strain
rate consolidation test (CRS
test) and step loading consolidation test (S.L test).
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Fig. 3 is void ratio-effective
stress curve (e-log p’) of CRS
test result of peat. This experiment’s strain rate was 0.2, 0.02
and 0.002(%/min). The lines
which were different strain rate

Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

were parallel and as strain rate was speeded, the line moved rightside. These behaviors indicated that peat followed Isotache model.
Moreover Cc and Cα were got from this result. Cc=4.98 and Cα=0.35.
These values were large, compared to typical clay. It indicated thatpeat has high compressibility.
Fig. 4 is strain-effective stress curve (ε-log p’) of CRS test result
and S.L test result. S.L test’s result was plotted at the points that strain
rate was 0.2, 0.02, 0.002 and 0.0002(%/min). This indicated that peat
didn’t follow Isotache model, because the lines were not unambiguously determined by strain rate. But, Cc and Cα of both tests were
almost same.

1.

REFERENCES
Watabe Y., Kaneko T., Report of the port and airport research institute vol. 54, 3-30.

All figures are clippings from the poster we used in the presentation
at the 3rd Russian–Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment.

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Yoshinao MATSUBA, Shinji SATO
1
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo
2
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment entitled:

Nearshore topography
estimation by image
analysis
INTRODUCTION
Peat is piled up the remain of plant residue which the resolution isinadequate for in cold and humid conditions.
Peat is distributed in Russia and Hokkaido in Japan. Peat has
many characteristics. Those are high water content, high compressibility (large secondary consolidation) and small unit weight.
Because of these characteristics, peat is classified “Special soil”.
These characteristics make some problems at Hokkaido. For example, uneven subsidence occurred at Hokkaido highway road. Compared to other soil or clay’s subsidence, peat’s subsidence is large.
METHODS
1. UAV based monitoring system
The UAV-based monitoring system is composed of two sub-systems;
the estimation of submarine bathymetry by using extraction of wave
crest-lines and the estimation of subaerial topography by using SfM(Structure from Motion) technique.
In order to estimate water depth based on wave celerity, long wave
has advantage in accuracy. Therefore, by using 2-dimensional wavelet
transform, only wave crest lines of long waves are extracted from pictures taken by UAV at a height of 150 m as shown in Figure 1. Then,
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by tracking the lines, wave celerity, C, are calculated and bathymetry
can be estimated by dispersion relation, Eq.1.
(1)

Subaerial topography can be
estimated by using SfM technique[Mancini et al., 2013]. SfM is theprocess estimating 3-dimensional structures from 2-dimensional
image sequences which may becoupled with local motion signals. By using this technique,
3D model of coastal area can begenerated from pictures taken by
UAV and it shows high accuracy
as shown in Fig. 2.
Fig. 1. Wave crest-lines extracted by using
2-dimensional wavelet transform

2. Monitoring camera based
systemEven though monitoring cameras lack mobility compared to
UAV, they can be used as interpolation of UAV. By making timeaveraged pictures, movement ofsand bars can be tracked basedon wave breaking which occurs atshallow area as shown in Figure
3 [Lippmann and Holman, 1989].
Time-averaged pictures also
useful to follow shoreline changes as shown in Fig. 4.

Fig. 2. Example of 3D model made fromAPPLY THE NEW METHOD
The techniques discussed before are applied in several field

pictures taken by UAV using SfM andcomparison of the result with GPS data

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Fig. 3. Estimation of sand bars by using time-averaged pictures

Fig. 4. Extracted shoreline monitored by thesurveillance camera

Fig. 5. Introduced sand-bypassing system212

surveys at Asaba Coast in
Shizuoka prefecture wherean outlet of automated sandbypassing system (Fig. 5)
were introduced in October
2015.
Fig. 6 shows one of the results of topography estimation using UAV techniques.
By combining the results of
UAV based monitoring andbathymetry data measured
by using sonar, short-term topography changes in front of
the outlet can be estimated asshown in Fig. 7.
UAV-based
monitoring
captured rapid depositional

Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

trend after the install of thesand-bypassing system tothe winter. Moreover, erosional trend in the wintercaused by storm was also
captured and which was
also confirmed by monitoring cameras as shown in
Fig. 8.

Fig. 6. Extracted shoreline monitored by thesurveillance camera

Fig. 7. Cross-shore profiles near the outlet (solidlines indicate measurements by sonar and dashedlines by UAV)REFERENCES
1. Mancini, F., Dubbini,M., Gattelli, M., Stecchi, F., Fabbri, S., Gabbianelli, G., 2013, Using
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles(UAV) for High-Resolution
Reconstruction of Topography: The Structure from
Motion Approach on Coastal Environments. Remote
Sensing. 5(12): 6880-6898.
2. Lippmann, T. C., Holman, R. A., 1989, Quantification of sand bar morphology: a video technique basedon wave dissipation, Journalof Geophysical Research,
94(C1), 995–1011.

All figures are clippings from theposter we used in the presentation
Fig. 8. Erosional trend caused by winter storm,

at the 3rd Russian–Japanese

captured by a monitoring camera. Red indicates

Collaboration Seminar for

shoreline of Jan 16 , green Jan 22 , blue Feb 7

Sustainable Environment.

th

nd

th

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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Masataka MIZUTANI1, Wataru TAKEUCHI1,
Moriyama MASAO2
1
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo,
2
Nagasaki University
Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment entitled:

Wildfire detection around
Lake Baikal by Himawari-8

INTRODUCTION
In recent years, forest fire has become a global social issue. Originally,
forest fills the role of preventing the global warming by photosynthesis.
Once it is burned, however, it merely becomes the emission source ofcarbon dioxide. Besides this one, forest plays a multifunctional role. so
wildfire destroying forest has serious effect on global environment andsociety. For this reason, we must minimize the damage caused by forest fire, and it is necessary to predict forest fire spreading accurately the
spreading of fire. In this study, we focus on two sensors on satellite. One
is AHI-8 on Himawari-8, the other is MODIS on Terra/Aqua. Each spatial
resolution and temporal resolution is different. We focus on this difference, and verify the fire detection performance. As the research target, we
employ the forest fire that occurred around Lake Baikal in Russia August,2015. Russian forest accounts for 20 percent of the forest in the world so
it has a great influence on global situation rather than Russian situation.
From the viewpoint of global environmental protection the importance of
the Russian forest is also high, so in this study it is proper as a study site.
METHODSIn this study, we focus on three earth observation sensors, MODIS,
Landsat-8, and Himawari-8. Every sensor has thermal infrared bands,
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so they can capture thermal radiation. Table 1 shows Himawari-8
and Landsat-8 sensor specifications and Table 2 shows the differenceof each sensor resolution.

Himawari-8

Landsat-8

Bands

Wavelength (μm)

Bands

Wavelength (μm)

Band5 (SWIR)

1.61

Band4 (Red)0.655

Band6 (SWIR)

2.25

Band5 (NIR)

0.865

Band7 (IMIR)

3.88

Band6 (SWIR)

1.61

Band13 (TIR)

10.4

Band10 (TIR)

10.8

Table 1. Sensor band and wavelength
Satellite

SensorSpatial resolution

Temporal resolution

Himawari-8

AHI

2000[m]10 min.

Terra/Aqua

MODIS

1000[m]0.5 day

Landsat-8

OLI

30[m]

16 days

Table 1. Sensor band and wavelength

Results and discussion
1.0[km]1.0[km]Active fire

Burnt scar

forest

Zone1

Zone2

Zone3

Zone4

Zone5

Fig. 1. 7 August, 2015 around Lake Baikal by Landsat-8
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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Fig. 2. Fire Radiative Power by MODIS8

Fig. 3. Temperature by Himawari-8 band13

Fig. 1 shows the satellite image around Lake Baikal derived Landsat-8. Five active fire areas were set as fire target. It is the information
on 7th August, 2015. The spatial resolution is 30 [m], but temporal
resolution is 16 [days]. So daily fire detection cannot be carried out.
Fig. 2 shows the result of daily fire detection by MODIS. About
Zone2 and Zone5, wildfire was detected even except 7th. About theother fire (Zone 1, 3, 4) was detected only the day (7th August).
Fig. 3 shows the result of fire detection by Himawari-8. Everyten minutes detection was successful among 6th to 8th, August. Although the temperature was influenced by daily variation or cloud,Zone 2 was highest, and Zone 4 was lowest a late night slot.

1.

2.

3.

REFERENCES
Bessho, Kotaro, et al. “An introduction to Himawari-8/9—Japan’s new-generation geostationary meteorological satellites.” Kishoshushi. No.2 94.2 (2016): 151–183.
Takeuchi, Wataru. “Assessment of geometric errors of Advanced
Himawari-8 Imager (AHI) over one year operation.” IOP Conference
Series: Earth and Environmental Science. Vol. 37. No. 1. IOP Publishing, 2016.
Justice, C. O., Giglio, L., Korontzi, S., Owens, J., Morisette, J.
T., Roy, D., ... & Kaufman, Y. (2002). The MODIS fire products.
Remote Sensing of Environment, 83(1), 244–262.

All figures are clippings from the poster we used in the presentation
at the 3rd Russian–Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment.

216

Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

Shogo NAKATA1, 2, Yukiko HIRABAYASHI1,
Shinichiro FUJIMORI3, Satoshi WATANABE1
1
Institute of Engineering Innovation, The University of Tokyo,
2
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo,
3
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment entitled:

A CGE analysis
of economic costs of flood
considering indirect loss:a case studyof 2011Thailand flooding
disaster

INTRODUCTION
Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $ 19 billion in 2012
(Munic Re, 2013). If global warming proceeds, flood risk will increase
globally in particular Asia and Africa (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Previous studies have been focused mainly on direct tangible losses, however,indirect loss could cause considerable effects on local economy as well.
Hence, the objective of this research is estimating comprehensive floodrisk including indirect loss and economical spreading effect of flood loss.
METHODS
We first developed a method to estimate comprehensive flood loss
from numerically simulated variables from river and inundation
model. We then conducted CGE analysis of 2011 Thailand flood toshow economic costs of flood.
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Flood Simulation
A retrospective river and inundation simulation was conducted by CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki
et al., 2011). The CaMa-Floodwas obtained from a land surface model, MATSIRO-GW(Koirala et al., 2014), forced
with a corrected reanalysis
data (Iizumi et al., in prep.).
Satellite-derived river width(Yamazaki et al., 2015) wasFig. 1. Flow of this researchused for the simulation, whilea parameter of river depth was calibrated to obtain best-fit of observed
flood peak for the period between 1990 and 2000. Calculated daily inundation depth from CaMa-Flood at a 0.1-deg horizontal resolution was
diagnostically downscaled onto DEM at 18 arc-second (about 500m).
Direct loss
Direct loss was estimatedfrom modeled flood exposure(potentially affected capital stock) and damage ratio
defined from damage-depth
functions for 3 land use types(urban, forest and cropland).
Capital stock was obtained
from re-gridded GPP (Gross
Provincial Product) multiplied by a coefficient, 5.5, obtained from reported GPP in
Fig. 2. Method of estimating flood direct loss
2010 and estimated capitalstock in 2010 by World Bank.
Re-gridded GPP was obtained from a correlation of percentage of urban grid and GPP for 77 province, as capital stock of urban grid was
2482 times of other grid.
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Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

Indirect loss
Industrial activity stop and emergency expense was estimated as
indirect loss. Loss of industrial activity stop, ILi, was estimated asa number of days of activity stop multiplied by total value-added
amount as ILi = p x d, where p is value-added amount per day and dis the number of activity stop (1.75 x days of inundation depth > 1m).
This ratio was decided from reported inundation period and stoppage of operation at 7 industrial estates. Emergency expense wascalculated for households and business.
The former includes working cost of cleaning and additional family expense of fallback activities. Daily cleaning cost perhousehold (1935 THB, on 2010 PPP), total cleaning day at inundation level, additional family expense and emergency expense
per company were obtained from Japanese flood report (MLIT,
2005). Number of household and company of each province wasobtained from Alpha Research Company Ltd. (2008) and uniformly distributed.
CGE analysis
A Computable General Equilibrium Model, AIM/CGE (Fujimori et al., 2014) calculates
economic equilibrium. Model
input was obtained from damage estimation by World Bank.
Fig. 3. Settings of flood loss
in CGE model

Table 1. Upper: Asset loss ratio of each industry.
Lower: Capital outage ratio of each industry

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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Modeled Flood Loss
Modeled flood loss showed similar in magnitude comparing to independent estimation by the World Bank.Direct asset loss 845 bil.THB(The world Bank : 630 bil. THB). Industrial activity stop 223 bil.THB(The World Bank : 528 bil. THB (industry + agriculture)). Emergency
expense 58 bil.THB (The World Bank : 38 bil. THB (household sector)).

Fig. 4. Each flood loss per province

CGE analysis of flood loss
Calculated GDP loss by CGE model (GDP of 2011 Thailand flood minus GDP without flood) was -1.75%. This value is similar to the estimation of the World Bank (-1.1%). Although loss of asset is the largest, effect of GDP loss from Industry activity stop is the largest. The
negative effect of flood loss lasts longer than 20-years after the event.

Fig. 5. Damage amount of each item

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Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

Fig. 5. Damage amount of each item

Fig. 5. Damage amount of each item

1.

2.

3.

REFERENCES
Koirala S., Yeh PJ-F., Hirabayashi Y., Kanae S., Oki T. (2014).
Global-scale land surface hydrologic modeling with the representation of water table dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 119:75-89.
Yamazaki D., Kanae S., Kim H., Oki T. (2011). A physically
based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47.
Fujimori S., Mosui T., Matsuoka Y. (2014). Development of a
global computable general equilibrium model coupled with detailedenergy end-use technology. Applied Energy 128:296-306.

All figures are clippings from the poster we used in the presentation
at the 3rd Russian–Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment.

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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Luisa SANTA SPITIA, Reiko KUWANO
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment entitled:

Effect of water flow
in internal erosion of sandy
soils
INTRODUCTION
The phenomenon of internal erosion refers to the detachmentof soil particles from the main
structure due to the action of a
fluid flow; both suffusion andpiping are result of internal erosion in the ground, and can cause
disasters in hydraulic structures
Fig. 1. Internal erosion process
due to heavy rainfalls. In order toknow the influence of water penetration into the ground, a series of permeability tests had been performed in a highly erodible soil, applying
water with various hydraulic gradients from the top part of specimens
with different densities, and letting fine particles drain out, leaving thecoarse skeleton behind.
TEST MATERIAL
In this study, colored red silica sand number 5 was used; this variety of sand is produced from the degradations of quartz, and has amean diameter D50 of 0.5 mm. Also, non-plastic silt called DL-Clay
was used; it is a fine material without plasticity that looks yellowish
brown and has a mean diameter D50 of 23μm.
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Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

Fig. 2. Test soil

Fig. 3. Grading curves of the soils studied

Both soils (Silica sand and DL-clay) were mixed using various percentages combinations based on the study made by Kenney (1985), in
which, the author suggested the maximum content of detached particles a granular soil can contain, and therefore the maximum loss
possible. According to this, the percentages of Silica sand (primaryfabric) and DL-clay (detached particles) were estimated taking into
consideration the void ratio and average porosity.
Three soil conditions were studied: (1) loose soil (Dr= 4~10%) with
65% of primary fabric (silica sand) and 35% of detached particles(DL-clay); (2) loose soil (Dr= 4~10%) with 80% of primary fabric and
20% of detached particles; and (3) dense soil (Dr= 88~90%) with 80%
of primary fabric and 20% of detached particles (Fig. 3).
APPARATUS
Pressurized water flowed from top
to bottom in a chamber containing
the soil in study, in order to investigate the effect of water and how
it can drain out detached particles
from a main structure. The acrylic
Fig. 4. Apparatus
chamber has an internal diameterof 81mm and height of 67mm; it has a bottom part with 88 holesof 5mm diameter, covered by gauze with opening of 1mm (Fig. 4).
TEST PROCEDURE
The water pressure is applied to the top part of the specimen and thewater with detached particles is recollected from the bottom. The
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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environmentpressure applied was varied in every test. The water with fines wasweighted, then, the weight of particles drained out was measured bydrying the water in the oven. Additionally, the turbidity of the water
expelled was measured during the experiments.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
A highly erodible soil was used in loose and dense state; moreover,different percentage combinations of primary fabric and detached particles were used, examining theeffect of the hydraulic gradientin the movement of detached particles. The percentage of soil expelled varies significantly between
the loose and dense state. In theloose specimens the percentage
drained out was around 10 to 13%а) Amount of drained soilof the initial mass, while the dense
specimen reached around 3% in
the more eroded case (Fig. 5 (a)). A
similar trend is shown in the turbidity (Fig. 5 (b)).
A comparison between thegrading curves of the soil before
and after the test is shown in fig.
b) Turbidity
6, just the cases with extreme reFig. 5. Influence of the hydraulic gradientsults are in the figure. For the soil
and density on the amount of drained soil
with initially 20% of detachedand turbidity
particles, the loss of grains isabout 3% in the dense state and17%. For the specimen with initially 35% of detached particles,
the loss is around 13%.
Additionally, microscopic images were taken in order to estimate qualitatively the amount ofFig. 6. Grain size distributions of initialdetached particles in the strucand final specimens
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Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

Fig. 7. Microscopic images of the specimens
after the test (a) Dense specimen, (b) Loose
specimenture of the soil. The images
show that in the dense specimen after the test, still a large
amount of detached particles(whitish particles) remain in
the soil (Fig. 7 (a)), and that theamount of detached particles
is considerably smaller for theloose specimen (Fig. 7 (b)).

CONCLUSIONS
Effects of a water flow in the internal erosion were studied in this research, by applying water pressure to soil considered as highly erodible.
It was found that specimens with relative density around 4 to 10% exhibited a large amount of particles displaced (around 13% of the total),
and for the specimens with relative density around 90% the particles
drained out represented 3% of the total. The turbidity of the water thatpassed through the soil and carried out the detached particles was alsomeasured, it was found that the turbidity value can be related to theamount of particles removed, and therefore the measuring of the turbidity can be used in field in order to estimate the grade of internal erosion.

1.
2.
3.

4.

REFERENCES
Kenney et all.: Controlling constriction sizes of granular filters.
Canadian Geotechnical Journl, 1984.
Kenny,T.C. and Lau.D.: Internal Stability of granular filters.
Canadian Geotechnical Journal, Vol.22, p. 215-225, 1985.
Sato, M., Kuwano, R.: Effects of internal erosion on soil stiffnessand volumetric changes. International Symposium of Scour and Erosion, Sydney, 2014.
Sato, M.: Study on progress of internal erosion and its effect onmechanical properties. Doctor dissertation, Department of Civil engineering, University of Tokyo, 2014.

All figures are clippings from the poster we used in the presentation
at the 3rd Russian–Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment.

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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Moemi YAMAMOTO, Kiichiro HATOYAMA
Department of Civil Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Meeting abstract of the presentationin the 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment entitled:

Housing recovery projects
accompanying relocationin the affected coastal areas
after disaster —1993 Southwest-off Hokkaido
earthquake and 2011 Great
East Japan earthquake

INTRODUCTION
The Great East Japan Earthquake occurred on 11th March in 2011 andtsunamis followed by the earthquake brought severe damage mainly
along the coast of east Japan. 5 years have passed since then but recovery
activities still continue in the affected areas. Especially in the coastal severely affected areas, the residents have to relocate their homes to otherplaces. Group relocation project has been currently planned in totally
135 districts. However, such project is quite costly and not easy to develop consensus and the situations in the affected area are complicated.
So I would like to focus on a previous case where relocation project was
performed successfully in the similar situations as in Great East Japan
Earthquake. I chose two study sites; one is Aonae district in Okushiri
town in Hokkaido as a previous case and the second one is Ogatsu district in Ishinomaki city in Miyagi. I aim to consider what we can learn
from the previous recovery project by comparing these two cases.
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Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

STUDY SITES
Two districts are taken up in
this study;A) Aonae district in Okushiri
town in Hokkaido prefecture.
Damaged by Southwest-off
Hokkaido Earthquake.
B) Ogatsu district in Ishinomaki city in Miyagi prefecture.
Damaged by Great East Japan
Earthquake.
Fig. 1. Locations of study sites
Their locations are shown in
Fig. 1. Two districts have following points in common:• Both villages were devastated and residents need to relocat• Both are fishing villages.
SITUATIONS OF DAMAGE
Both districts were severely damaged by earthquakes and tsunamis.
The whole situations of damage in the two disasters are shown in
Table 1.
Southwest-off
Hokkaido Earthquake

Great East Japan
Earthquake

Magnitude

7.8

9.0

Max. Height of Tsunami

21m

9.3m

Casualty & the Missing

226

28230

Completely Destroyed House

577

121803

Damage cost

66 billion yen

17 billion yen

Table 1. Situations of damage

RECOVERY PLANS
A) Aonae district Okushiri town (Fig. 3)
To avoid residents relocating to outside of the town, special support projects for affected residents and industry were performed, fi1

System of group relocation project is depicted in Fig. 2.

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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Fig. 2. System of group relocation project

Fig. 3. Recovery plan in Aonaenanced by national government and donation.
To implement relocation
project, three systems wereapplied:(1) Group relocation1for disaster mitigation(2) Environment of fishingvillage improvement project;
Reconstruction of old town
(3) Construction of disasterpublic housing
B) Ogatsu district in Ishinomaki city (Fig. 4)
To ensure the safety interms of disaster mitigation,
mainly two kinds of projects
have been addressed;(1) Group relocation to upland(2) Construction sea wall.
As a result, residential
places and working places
for fishery will be separated.

PROCESS OF POLICYDEVELOPMENTA) Aonae district Okushiri
town
Three rough drafts of recovery project were presented to residents about two
Fig. 4. Recovery plan in Ogatsu
months after the disaster.
Then it was shifted from restriction phase to recovery phase. Throughbriefing sessions between residents and government staff, residents
showed their intensions for recovery plans. As a result, their intensions were completely split in three patterns. However, a compromise228

Poster Presentations / Japanese Contribution

plan was made. Finally, consensus between town and residents was
obtained four months after the occurrence of the earthquake.
B) Ogatsu district in Ishinomaki city
Basic policy for recovery was published by city one month after
but concrete plans which includes group relocation plan were presented to residents about four months after the disaster. City held
sessions for 12 days where residents exchanged their opinions for recovery plans. Recovery plan was formulated nine months later since
the disaster. Still now intensions among residents are split.
CONCLUSION
To learn appropriate solutions after disaster is sought in this paper,comparing two similar disaster cases.
In Aonae case, various residents’ intensions are reflected in the
projects and its recovery plan seems to be flexible. On the other hand,in Ogatsu case, from the beginning up to now, one policy, or group
relocation to upland has not been changed, though details were modified at many times.
These different points are found in process for recovery in thesetwo cases. However, one common thing exists; government (town,
city, prefecture) is forced to promote recovery projects as quickly as
possible. Various residents’ intensions were accepted in Aonae to
avoid delaying recovery. On the other hand, in Ogatsu case to usegroup relocation to upland was decided before how the district recover is considered, in order to perform quick recovery. It takes time
for residents to understand plans under complicated circumstances
and to obtain consensus. Therefore, it is a good way to show detailed
rough drafts at the beginning like Aonae district because it is shorterway for recovery, which Aonae case represented.
All figures are clippings from the poster we used in the presentation
at the 3rd Russian–Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

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The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Ekaterina ARISTARKHOVA
Department of Biogeographyy, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov
Moscow State University

The lichen indication
value in the evaluationof environmental risks
INTRODUCTION
Biological indication representing an estimate of the condition andquality of the environment became the most widely used in the 20th
century. Already from the 30-ies of the 20th century began to develop, and then applied the various directions of indication. Bioindication objects — there are environmental conditions, the various
components of ecosystems and their properties, etc. As biologicalindicators different visible organisms may be used for monitoring,
because of sensitive to environmental conditions changes that can beeasily studied. One of the aspects of bioindication, where the indicators are the lichens, is called the lichen-indication. A detailed overview of the standard methods of lichen-indication was carried out inthe book “Lichens in ecological monitoring” [2].
PurposeThe main goal is to identify the contemporary state of the environment in Moscow Region on the basis of distribution within it rare
and protected species of Usnea lichens included in the Red Data Bookof Moscow Region (RDBMR) (2008).
Lichens are relatively widely represented in the nature. The numberof species ranges, according to various estimates, between 13 500 and 26000. Lichens of the genus Usnea — a special group of symbiotic organismsthat live in conditions of relatively high humidity and minimal air pollution and is quite clearly react to environmental conditions changing [3].
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There are 8 species of Usnea genus in the Moscow Region. One ofthese species in the mid-twentieth century completely disappearedin the region, 2 species can be detected extremely rare (1–2 finds).
Species of the Usnea genus, which were found in the Moscow regionin 2011–2014 are:
1. Usnea hirta (L.) Weber ex F.H. Wigg.;
2. U. dasypoga (Ach.) Shirley;
3. U. subfloridana Stirt.;
4. U. glabrescens (Nyl. Ex Vain.) Vain.;
5. U. lapponica Vain.
All these species are listed in the Red Data Book of Moscow Region (2008), their category of rarity were — 2, 1, 2, 1, 1 — respectively [8].

•
•

•

•

Tasks:
Data processing of the monitoring undertaken on the territoryof Moscow Region, during last few years;
To create maps that highlight the differences in spreading of 5
rare protected species of Usnea genus in Moscow Region of in
the past and at present;
Assessment of the distribution of species depending on various factors: the climatic conditions [5], the position in the landscape [1], the specifics of the vegetation [4], the environmental
situation, namely — the level of anthropogenic air pollution in
the surface layer;
Assessment of the current status of each of the Usnea sp. on
the basis of new finds and identification of the most rare types,
i.e. sensitive to pollution, which can be used as an accurate
bio-indicators of the environmental state within the territoryof the Moscow Region.

Materials and methods
Sources of information — the numerous monitoring reports and dataof natural and technical surveys conducted in the Moscow Region(with the participation of the Nature Protection Fund “Verhovye” [7]),including those within the various nature protection areas (NPA). It
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should be noted that the study is based on the most important document — the Red Data Book of Moscow Region (2008), which listed all
species of the Usnea genus, given their general characteristics anddistribution in the Moscow Region on materials of lichenologists. Dataon the finds in the last few years (2011–2014) are listed in the electronic database on rare species (the Data Bank “Verhovye”). For eachfound instance of lichen in the database there is a specific point withthe serial number, geolocation coordinates for GPS-navigator, the tableindicates the type of habitat in which is found the lichen, the substrate(branches, trunk, tree species, etc.), abundance and date of collection.
To create maps that should show the distribution of Usnea species
in the Moscow Region, was taken the Map of administrative divisionsof the Moscow Region (rural settlements). With the help of a GISpackage “MapInfo” on the maps were indicated the points at which
we have found various species of Usnea in past decades since 1950,
as well as all points of new finds 2011–2014. Author of essays about
Usnea sp. in the Red Data Book of Moscow Region (2008) — is Tatiana
Tolpysheva (Dr Sci Botany), and she identified all new finds of lichens.
To analyze habitats for the Usnea sp. in the Moscow Region has
been analyzed thematic maps, some of which are listed below: vegetation cover maps [4], climate map and environmental map of the
Moscow region (Fig. 1, 2).

Fig. 1, 2. Climatic map of the Moscow Region (2005) and emissions of harmful
substances into the atmosphere map of the Moscow region (1995) [5, 6]

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Poster Presentations / Russian contribution

Fig. 3. The specificity of Usnea species
distribution in Moscow Region(1950–1995) (compiled by E. Aristarkhova)

Fig. 4. The specificity of Usnea species
present distribution in Moscow Region(1912–1914) (compiled by E. Aristarkhova)

Thus, in the Moscow Region was taken into account about 150
points, where found Usnea sp.: previous finds (1950–1995) — 59
points (Fig. 3), new finds (2012–2014) — 87 points (Fig. 4).
Results and discussion
The map showed Usnea sp. distribution in past decades almost on all
territory of the Moscow Region with the exception of areas with thelowest humidity in the South and South-East of the territory (Zaokskaya and Central-Russian physico-geographical province), dominatedby broad-leaved forests (Kashirsko-Zaraisky geobotanical district)and forest steppe begins (Serebryano-Prudsky geobotanical district).
Distribution of Usnea sp. is not evenly, it appears, in the Moscow Region highlighted areas where there is the largest numberof finds and the largest number of different Usnea sp. This is theso-called zone of optimum hydroclimatic and geomorphologicalconditions, here is probably formed the most favorable environmental conditions for the emergence of those plant communities
which have all the conditions for the emergence and further development of lichens.
It was along this border (can be traced to climate map) passes
Zone Drop greatest amount of precipitation within the Moscow
Region, which is an essential condition for the resettlement of lichens, given the suitability of these organisms to absorb necessary substances directly from the air, including by assimilation of233

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

drop-liquid moisture. Therefore, it is no coincidence various typesof Usnea sp. concentrated around some rather large water reservoirs along the tributaries of the river Moscow, which are situatedmainly in the north-east of Moscow Region. In areas where the air
is most polluted with harmful emissions and dust particles, there
was not Usnea’s.
Obviously, the environmental conditions in the region for half acentury have changed significantly, which affected both the microclimate and the composition of the air in the surface layer of theatmosphere, as well as on the nature of the flora and vegetation, including epiphytic lichen biota. Below you can see the map of the Usnea modern distribution in the Moscow Region (fig. 4) and the main
results of the study, based primarily on cartographic analysis, literature sources and field materials (Table 1).
Biological species oflichens

Finds
oflichens(earlyfinds)

Landscapetyp [1]

VerkhneVolzhskaya45(8)Sprucesoreel-widegrass forest

34(1.7)

Pinespruce withoak andlinden green
wide-grassforestVerkhneVolzhskaya

Usnea
hirta

51(27)

VerkhneVolzhskaya

Loto-shinsko-Taldomsky (6),MozhaiskoZagorsky(7)

Pinespruce green
moss forest

Smolenskaya

40(24)

Spruce withlinden andoak soreelfern-widegrass forest

Smolenskaya

9(23)Pinespruce soreel
forestTable 1. Sensor band and wavelength234

48(10)

Geobotanicaldistrict (newfinds)

Formations
and subformations ofvegation [3]PhysicogeographicalprovincePoster Presentations / Russian contribution

Main conclusions
1. Species of the Usnea were found mostly in the north-westernand extreme western parts of the Moscow Region, namely, in
subnemoral and boreal coniferous forests, swamp forests andwooded swamps.
2. The maximum number of Usnea species are located in the western part of the Moscow Region in the Smolenskaya physico-geographical province, Mozhaisko-Zagorsky geobotanical district.
3. 	The most commonly encountered are Usnea hirta and Usnea dasypoga. They live in taiga-type (usually pine-spruce) forests andtransitional bogs with young trees of downy birch and spruce.
pine forests and on the outskirts of transitional bogs. These two
species are probably the most resistant to air pollution and live
on different species of trees, even in suburban areas (Shchelkovo,
Odintsovo districts). The rarest and more sensitive to humidity
and clean air are Usnea lapponica, U. glabrescens, U. subfloridana
encountered only in the less built-up western and north-western
districts of the Moscow region on the pine or birch trees. The
most suitable conditions for lichens are formed on the outskirtsof the transitional swamps and bogs of Lotoshinsky, Shakhovskoy and Mozhaisky districts, where for several decades no happened any fires.
4. Most of Usnea species are located in old and mature forests.
5. The development of rare epiphytic lichens in the southern andeastern districts of the Moscow Region is hampered by the presence of harmful emissions from factories, the lower troposphere
dustiness, increased dryness of the air in the summer and frequent fires in pine forests and peat bogs bog massifs, including
the reclaimed territories.
6. It is recommended to conduct more surveys in Solnechnogorsky
and Istra districts, in the vicinity of the Istra reservoir, in Taldomsky district and swamp forests and swamps of the eastern
margin of the Mescherskaya province.
7. Based on the current state of rare Usnea sp. advisable to consider changing the status of these species in the Red Data Bookof Moscow Region. Usnea glabrescens has never been found in
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the field from 1995 to 2014 years. It is necessary to continue
searches of these species in the region, especially in the northern and eastern areas.
Thus, we were able to make a number of important conclusions,which may allow further developing of Usnea sp. protection in the
Moscow Region, as well as serve as a basis for further monitoring,
ecology and distribution of research as the species of this genus, asother epiphytic lichens with similar habitat requirements, and contribute to the development of studies of human impact on ecosystems — lichen-indication.

1.

2.
3.

4.

5.
6.
7.
8.

REFERENCES
Annenskaya G.N., Zhuchkova V.K., Kalinina V.R., Mamai
I.I., Nizovtsev V.A., Khrustaleva M.A., Tseselchuk Yu.N.
Landscapes of the Moscow region and their current state. Smolensk:
SSU, 1997.
Byazrov L.G. Lichens in ecological monitoring. M.: “ScientificWorld”, 2002.
Muchnik E.E., Insarova I.D., Kazakova M.V. Educational determinant of lichens of Central Russia: educational-methodical manual. RSU. Ryazan. 2011.
Ogureeva G.N., Miklyaeva I.M., Suslova E.G. Vegetation of the
Moscow Region. Map of vegetation. Scale 1: 200 000. Explanatory
text and legend to the map. M.: 1996.
Сlimatic map of the Moscow Region, 1976. http://www.oldmoscowmaps.ru/v/1976/13.jpg.
“RosEcology” Company. http://www.rosecology.ru/docs/map_okr_
sredi/bi/rs2.jpg
The Data Bank “Verhovye”. http://verhovye.ru/baza/
The Red Data Book of Moscow region. http://kkmo2.verhovye.ru/

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Alexandra BANCHEVA
Department of World Physical Geography and Geoecology,
Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University

Air pollution risk potential
as index of sustainability
to industrial impact(case study of the Hokkaido
Island)Hokkaido Island is considered as a reserve of native nature and environmental “donor” in Japan. Landscapes of Hokkaido are presented
by coniferous, deciduous and mixed forests mostly grown on cambisols and andosols. 70% of these forests are estimated as modal orsecondary derivative (probably transformed in past, but currently notunder the human control and with a natural type of ecological succession) [1]. These landscapes have a very high value due to supported ecosystem functions and services. Because of it, we consider thatassessment of Hokkaido landscapes vulnerability and sensitiveness/
resistance to industrial pressure is very important.
In this research, we investigate the aspect of air pollution and calculate the index of air pollution risk potential, Kp [2]. This index reflects
climatic conditions, which are typical for a given area and determine
both accumulation and dispersion of pollution in the atmosphere.
The index was calculated according to the methodology of Y. Pykh, I.
Malkina-Pykh, who tested their methodology with the object of Tohoku
district. The equation for calculation of the Kp is looking as follows:

P (V≤1) — number of days with calm wind (wind speed ≤ 1 m/s);
P (V≥3) — number of days with wind speed ≥ 3 m/s;
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P (ΔTmin,max≥9) — number of days with daily temperature gradient ≥ 9оС;P (ΔTmin,max≤5) — number of days with daily temperature gradient ≤ 5оС;P (Q≤1) — number of days with precipitation ≤ 1 mm;
P (Q≥3.0) — number of days with precipitation ≥3 mm.
The number of days with the mentioned values of variables reflects
the probabilities of these variables. If the value of Kp < 1 then the selfpurification process exceeds the accumulation of pollutants in the atmosphere.
The methodology [2] is appropriate in the case of using Japan Meteorological Agency data. Meteorological data of 134 meteorological stations in Hokkaido were taken under the account for the 30-years period(1986–2015): daily mean data of maximum and minimum temperatures,
precipitations and wind speed [3]. The index was calculated for Januaryand July, also for annual average.
The results of research shows that in winter the Japan Sea side of the
Hokkaido is characterized with low Kp values and south-eastern part ofthe island — with high Kp values (Fig. 1).
Mostly this can be explained due to features in precipitation
course. A cold, dry, continental polar air from Siberia is much modified over the Japan Sea, and becomes warm, moist and unstable after
passing the Japan Sea. As a result it brings frequent snow and cloudy
conditions to the windward Hokkaido Japan Sea side. On the other
hand sunny, dry weather prevails on the Pacific side. It is known
that a lot of precipitation provides good self-purification abilities ofatmosphere.
The minimum of Kp values
are found in Oshima peninsula(station Matsumae, Kp=0,29):
there are a lot of precipitations
and strong winds. The maximum of Kp values have territories in the north-eastern partof Tokachi valley (station Hombetsu, Kp>12): there are landscapes between Hidaka MounFig. 1. The index of air pollution risk
tains and Shiranuko highlands,
potential, Kp, January.
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Poster Presentations / Russian contribution

which are sheltered by the relief of mountains, and the windvelocity precipitation amountare not high.
Therefore in winter, the assimilative capacity of the atmosphere and self-purification
abilities from the pollutants inwestern part of the island ishigher. Also low Kp values have
Fig. 2. The index of air pollution risk
potential, K p, July
Erimo cape, Nemuro peninsula,
Shiretoko peninsula.
In summer season, the difference between meteorologicalstations is not so big (Fig. 2). The
low values of Kp (Kp= less than2) are shown for the coastal ecosystems among all island (Oshima, Hidaka, Nemuro, Soya) andhigher values of Kp (Kp=3–6) arefound in the inner parts of theFig. 3. The index of air pollution risk
island (Tesio valley, headwaters
potential, K p
of Tokachi river, Abashiri plain).
Speaking about the annual average data, basically, the situationreflects the spatial features of the index Kp in winter season (Fig. 3).
Thus, the highest index (Kp= more than 3) is typical for Tokachi plain,
Abashiri plain, Kamikawa basin, Furano basin. The worse self-purification meteorological characteristics have landscapes in headwatersof Toshibetsu and Abashiri rivers — due to the very high the index of
air pollution risk potential in winter. The best situation is observedin landscapes of Japan Sea side and coastal areas.
For the air pollution analysis it is important to know the balance
between the volume of pollutant emissions from the sources (thermal power plants, industry, automobiles) and self-purification abilityof the atmosphere (the index of air pollution risk potential, Kp). For
instance, Sunagawa power station produces around 15 000 tons SO2
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per year [4], but due to the good meteorological assimilation featuresof this territory, pollutants mostly are taken out from the landscapesand ecosystems can be considered as sustainable (resistant) to theemissions. On the other hand, the emissions of Asahikawa town industry (around 450 tons SO2 per year) could make strong negative
damage to the landscapes because of the low self-purification abilities of the atmosphere here.
The regional differences of index of air pollution risk potential
may be helpful in regional policy, environmental impact assessment,
industrial development of the region in relation to air quality management and environmental management on the whole. Ecological
technologies and monitoring may be recommended especially for theregions with the high index of air pollution risk ptential.
References
1. Bancheva A.I. Ecological capacity of Hokkaido landscapes // Natural-Anthropogenic Geosystems: World and Regional Research Experience. — М., 2012 [in Russian].
2. Pykh Y., Malkina-Pykh. I. Assessing air pollution risk potential:
case study of the Tohoku district, Japan // WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 147, 2011.
3. Japan Meteorological Agency: [electronic resource]. URL: http://
www.jma.go.jp/jma/index.html .
4.	Hokkaido electric power company: [electronic resource]. URL:
http://www.hepco.co.jp/energy/fire_power/.

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Poster Presentations / Russian contribution

Irina CHERNOVA, Viktor ZHURAVLEV
Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University

Geoecological researchat the Central zone
of Baikal: environmental
and tekhnogenic risks

Introduction
Geoecological research was carried out from 2012 to 2016 by students and teachers of the Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University in several summer and winter expeditions by Departmentof Nature Management. That research includes two main parts:hydrochemical research and landscape research. The first part connects with analysis of anthropogenic and nature influence on water
ecosystems of the lake Baikal and some smaller lakes and rivers in
Severo-Baykalskiy, Barguzin and Pribaykalskiy districts of the Republic of Buryatia and on the Olkhon Island. The second part is theassessment of recreational potential of landscapes in Spatial Economic Zone tourist-recreation-type “Baikal Harbour” in Pribaykalskiy District.
Hydrochemical research
To choose the sites for water sampling the cartographic method wasused. The choice was determined by the location of villages, tourist campuses and highways near the shores and flowing streams torecognizing the anthropogenic influence on water ecosystems. The
water samples has the primary hydrochemical analysis includes temperature, pH, mineralization parameters and then were processed in
the laboratory of the Department of Nature Management.
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Fig. 1. Water sampling sites in SeveroBaykalskiy District

Fig. 2. Water sampling sites in Barguzin
District

Sites of water sampling are shown in fig. 1–4. There were own
unique aspects and reasons to make researches in each region.
In Severo-Baykalskiy Disrtict (Fig. 1) environmental impact of
the Kholodninskoye lead-zinc pyrite deposit on the Kholodnaya River and Lake Baikal were assessed. “Kholodninskoe” located in thecatchment basin of Lake Baikal, it’s ore body has not been developed,
but the streams from mines continue to pollute rivers with heavy
metals. The researches took place from 2013 to 2015 and inconsiderable influence on the Kholodnaya River was detected.
In Barguzin District (Fig. 2) the research was carried out in Zabaykalsky National Park located in the middle section of the eastern
shore of Lake Baikal and on the Svyatoy Nos peninsula. There are a
big number of tourists with their personal transport on the shores,
so the anthropogenic impact in recreation sites in National Park is
the main environmental problem. Water sampling was carried out in
Chivyrkur Bay and some others small water reservoirs of the territory of National Park in summer and winter field from 2015 to 2016.
As a result the excess of concentrations near tourist camps in Chivirkuiskiy Bay and Barguzin Bay, natural excess of concentrations in
Barmashovoe Lake was recognized.
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The main object of study in Pribaykalskiy District (Fig. 3) was the water quality of Lake Kotokel after the
ecological disaster in 1990-s which
stopped recreational development of
tourists infrastructure near the lake.
For estimating the current ecologicalstatus of Lake Kotokel and its suburbs
the hydrochemical network was established to continue the geoecologicalmonitoring at the locations of recreational facilities and prospective tourist
routes.
The research on the Olkhon Island(Fig. 4) was connected with problems
with drinking water and touristic load.
The water sampling was carried out inthe Lake Baikal near the settlement
Khuzhir and in some drinking water
sources. That study took place in summer field season in 2014–2015 years.
Landscape research
The landscape research took placein Pribaykalskiy District in the mostpopular tourists site of coast from Gremyachinsk to Turka, which belong to
Spatial Economic Zone tourist-recreation-type “Baikal Harbour” from 2013
to 2015 (Fig. 5). The Assessment of recreational potential of landscapes was
included: study of the landscape structure and ecological capacity study ofhazardous exogenous natural process,assessment of recreational attraction oflandscapes. The comparison was madeFig. 3. Water sampling sites
in Pribaykalskiy District

Fig. 4. Water sampling sites on
the Olkhon Island

Fig. 5. Region of landscaperesearch

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between key areas and background areas situated in the territory of
Pribaykalskiy natural reserve. As the result the large amount of data
was collected for thematic mapping and making distinguishing areas
for different using.
Conclusion
In the course of the study the huge mass of data characterizing water quality in several areas of Baikal region was gathered. The leadzinc deposit “Kholodninskoe” has insignificant impact on the River
Kholodnaya. In the Barguzin and Pribaykalskiy districts and on theOlkhon Island the anthropogenic environmental impact on the water
quality (the excess of background concentrations) caused by high recreation load was detected. The situation with Lake Kotokel has a positive trend: the water quality is improved naturally. By the results oflandscape research thematic maps and recommendations for future
improvement of beaches of Baikal Harbour” were developed.

1.
2.

3.

References
Grachev M. A. Current Status of ecological system of the Lake Baikal. — Novosibirsk, 2002 [In Russian].
Methods of laboratory and field studies: / Gorshkova О.М.,Goretskaya А. G., Koreshkova Т.N., Кrasnushkin А.V., Margolina I.
L., Potapov А.А., Praschykina Е.М., Shkil А.N.; Ed. by М.V. Slipenchuk. — M., 2015 [In Russian].
Lake Baikal protection fund. Available at: www.baikalfund/baikal/ecology/reserves/index.wbp.

244

Poster Presentations / Russian contribution

Alexandr EVSEEV1, Tatyana KRASOVSKAYA 2,
Alexey MEDVEDKOV 2
1
Department of Nature Management,
2
Department of Geoecology, Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov
Moscow State University

Dimensions of “Clean Ugra”
brand formation
International community adopted several important documents promoting transit to “green economy”. Among them: European program“20:20:20” directed at industry and power production “greening”,
UNEP “Green Course”, “Rio+20” Declaration, OECD resolutions etc.
[Green…2008]. According to these documents “green economy” main
target is stabilization of economy development based on harmonizationof “nature-population-economy” interrelations. UN experts mark 5 vitalfor “green economy” sectors: energy supply, transit to renewable energy
sources, wastes processing, organic agriculture, ecological transport,
rational water resources use. Green economy concept for Russia is relatively new and this term is not used in official documents. NeverthelessRussian future development programs for the next 10-20 year period
correspond to “green economy” goals. It is obvious that mechanismsof transit to “green economy” will differ from state to state and even ata regional level in connection with environmental and socio-economic
situation. Movement to economy ‘greening’ is demonstrated in Khanty-Mansy Autonomous Okrug-Ugra which has launched this process byelaboration of a special program. Ambitious plans for future development announced by the local administration are connected with transit
to “green” economy model and “Clean Ugra” brand formation.
Study area
Hanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug (region) - Ugra is the leading Siberian
region of Russia (Fig.1). Its territory is occupied mainly by taiga ecosys245

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tems. The Ob River flat valley isbogged to a great extent. Westernpart is presented by spurs ridgesof the Ural Mountains. Ugra
economic development is based
mainly on hydrocarbons extraction (57% from the country toFig. 1. Khanty-Mansi Autonomous
tal priorities given to industrial
Okrug — Ugra
land management model since
1964 caused negative environmental changes promoted by present-day
climatic changes. They are connected with air and water pollution, mechanical disruptions, growth of lands occupied by landfills etc.
The following ecological problems are typical: environment pollution including solid wastes uncontrolled accumulation as the most urgent environmental problem; ecosystem mechanical disturbances connected with hydrocarbon extraction and transportation; degradation ofreindeer pastures leading to indigenous population survival problems.
Several ecological risks belonging to specific “northern” are connected with environmental factors. These risks include cryological, exogenic
geological and hydro meteorological. Among them: thermokarst effects,
solifluction, landslides and avalanches in mountains (Berezovsky district)and from steep river banks, mudflows, erosion, floods etc. [Atlas…, 2004].
Materials and methods
Regional statistics, economic and environment reports, field data received during earlier studies, published data etc. were used in ourstudies. The principle method was system analysis.
Results and discussion
Background for “Gean Ugra” brand formation
Possibility of economy “greening” for the sake of sustainable development of any territory is provided by combination of different factors including both natural and social-economic. Practical experiences demonstrate that territories independent of them fairly exist. For
example climatic changes influence the global ecosystem processes
thus involving social-economic changes. Globalization processes pro246

Poster Presentations / Russian contribution

mote replacement of “dirty” industry to developing countries
etc. Transit to “green economy”
in Ugra meets various obstacles
and options both limiting andpromoting this process.
Main limiting factors areconnected with Ugra geographical situation: long cold wintersdemanding additional energy
supply, producing unfavorable
weather conditions etc., slow biogeochemical turn-over (plant debris decomposition takes up to 20 Fig. 2. Prevailing winds direction, pollutants
transit routes and environmental hot-spots
years) and thus limited ecosys- development.
tems self-purification capacity, 1 — Yamalo-Nenets Okrug, 2 —promoting environmental pol- Sverdlovskaya Oblast’, 2a — Tyumenskaya
Oblast’, 3 — Chelyabinskaya Oblast’, 4 —lutants accumulation in ecosysKurganskaya Oblast’, 5 — Ugra.
tems, high percentage of bogged
territories, relatively low biological productivity; long-range air pollutants transport from the Southern Ural and other neighbor industrial
regions, water pollutants transported by transit river flow etc. (Fig. 2).
The list of environmental hot-spots compiled recently in the Ural Federative Okrug, comprising Ugra, includes about 50 sources of air-born
and water pollutants (Report…, 2008). Natural risks mentioned above
also hamper the movement to “Clean Ugra” brand formation. Amongthem the most unpredictable is the climate change impact. Permafrost
melting processes, solifluction may be accelerated. Outburst of plantdiseases, worsening of sanitary-hygienic conditions due to permafrost
melting, increase of areas of transmissible diseases such as malaria willaccompany climatic warming. But opposite scenario exist as well.
Social-economic limiting factors are connected with more than
50-year practice of hydrocarbons extraction, i.e. long before elaboration of important environmental protection standards. The presentday role of Ugra as one of the state’s leaders in economic development
promotes further industrial nature management development though
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Fig. 3. Gross regional product per capita (2014) — Ugra position [based on: Platon
Pskov, 2014]

ecosystem losses reduce the regional GDP to a high extent. But at thesame time this fact promotes turn to elaboration of new methods ofnatural capital exploitation corresponding to “green” economy goals.
Promoting factors are connected with still large territories withminor technogenic impact, high percent of forested (taiga) territories,
very high values of regional GDP compared to other regions of Russia(Fig.3), more than 90% of economically active population, higher expenditures for technological innovations than in Russia in general, etc.
Options for “Clean Ugra” branddevelopment
Nowadays Ugra economic development is based on limited variantsof natural capital exploitation. Renewable energy sources, biologicalresources (timber, hunting and fishing etc.), recreational resources
are used inadequately but give a chance for economy diversificationand transit to “green” economy. Combination of the already existing
natural, economic institutional and social factors favor “Clean Ugra”
brand formation. Natural factors include the following:• More than 50% of the territory is characterized by: “low” and“very low” state of ecosystems anthropogenic disturbances;• Richness in biological resources (timber, berries, mushrooms,
hunting and fishing resources, medical plants);
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Poster Presentations / Russian contribution•

Renewable energy sources availability, including solar, wind,hydro energy sources, timber cutting by-products suitable forbiogas production;• High potential for ecological buffer territories development including indigenous population traditional nature management
territories.
Leading positions in Russian economy is an important economic factor, providing financial resources for ecological investments.
Among social factors are high Human development index, comparable with that of developed European countries, traditional ecologicalknowledge of indigenous population, well developed public ecological organizations united in “Ugra ecological consortium”. State ecological monitoring, nature conservation and nature management services, advanced public ecological education and regional ecologicallegislation present important institutional factors supporting transit
to “Clean Ugra” brand.
Nowadays common approaches to “green” branding have been developed (Fig.4). We analyze options for “Clean Ugra” using them, but
add regional factors mentioned above.
Options for transit to economy “greening” followed by “Clean Ugra”
brand formation include the following regionally adapted measures presenting economic, nature management and institutional tools (Fig.5):transit to higher energy consumption efficiency and active exploitation of wind, solar and minihydropower stations; “climatically neutral” production(newtechnologies); development oforganic agriculture production(reindeer meat, vegetables, forest berries and medical plantsetc.) ecological accounting in
GDP assessment; transparency of ecological accounts;
forested areas preservation for
carbon sequestration; developFig. 4. “Green” branding elements
ment of “nature favorable” eco249

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Fig. 5. Principle regionally adapted
measures for “Clean Ugra” brandformation

nomic sectors (tourism, recreation
traditional nature management),
adequate wastes management andecologically safe oil transportation;
development of green infrastructure
capable to restore regulatory ecosystems ecological services; modern
interpretation of indigenous population traditional ecological knowhow; preferences to eco-settlements
construction in pioneer development
regions; ecological certification, etc.

Conclusion
Ugra has all chances to be the first oil extracting region in Russia
characterized by “Clean” bran. It will demonstrate options for transit
to “green” economy and sustainable development for other similar territories. Administration of Ugra is now elaborating a special program
directed at “Clean Ugra” brand development. Primary attention is given
to “green” technologies, proper industrial and communal wastes management, nature conservation. “Clean Ugra” brand formation will taketime but may be successful if to follow Japanese Kaizen philosophy:
gradual improvement of all processes and control of working strategies.
Acknowledgements
This research work was supported by the Russian Foundation for
Fundamental Investigations (RFFI), grant N15-06-02279.

1.
2.
3.

References
Atlas of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Ugra / MoscowKhanty-Mansiisk: Talka-TDV, 2004 [In Russian].
Green growth and sustainable development / http://www.oecd.
org/greengrowth / Retrieved: 10/09/2015.
Report on control planning of environmental hot-spots in
Ural Federal region / http://dok.opredelim.com/docs/index-59549.
html [In Russian]. Retrieved: 10/09/2015.
250

Poster Presentations / Russian contribution

Alisa KLISHINA, Tatiana VOROBYOVA
Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University

Rural development based onnatural protection

Introduction
The development of rural areas based on ecological principles is very
important as it provides effective rural development as well as theenvironmental protection. Such strategic directions are of great importance in connection with fast urbanization growth and desire touse some rural areas in the process of city construction [2]. This research is very important in such administrative regions where nature management is carried out at the municipal level.
Methods and object
This search for new directions of rural development is based on
the complex studies, mainly on the special features of naturalsocial and economic resources. The indices characterizing the rural areas and those influencing the development are grouped asfollows:• specific character of natural conditions and resources• use of agriculture territories• peculiarities of settlement• ecotourism• economic development• state of ecological situation• quality of standard living of the population.
Plan of the effective nature management was based on landscapeplanning and agricultural adaptive development as part of morphological landscape structure. Adaptivity includes consideration of251

The 3rd Russian-Japanese Collaboration Seminar for Sustainable Environment

Fig. 1. Countryside of the Kolomna districtbioclimatic conditions as well as technological agricultural improvement. Here the most important in this ecological development areorganic agriculture, husbandry, cottage building, sport tourism, agricultural tourism, ecopathways in forests and natural reserves, building of boarding houses and children camps, a specially protectednatural reserves, reconstruction of historic monuments, ecologicalsettlements.
It is necessary to pay greater attention to the formation and preservation of the ecological structures. Kolomna district (Moscow region) was chosen as a model (Fig. 1). It is situated in south-east partof Moscow region. Kolomna is a center of its district, and forms a
separate municipal unit. The area of the district is 1112 square kilometers occupying the 18 place in this region.
This district is situated between Moscow and Ryazan at the distant of 80 kilometers from each of these cities. This territory is located on the north-eastern slope of the Middle Russian highland at
the place where the Moscow River flows into the Oka (Fig. 2). The
afforestation ranges from 30 to 90 percent. The climate is temperatecontinental and soils are podzol.
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Fig. 2. Territorial structure

Results
Regional agricultural nature management was developed basedon the studies of regional history and settlement, economic-geographic situation based on studies of the main ecological problems.
The ecological status of the area as a whole can be considered satisfactory, because there are no major polluting industries, but there
are local sources of pollution. The most significant problems associated with the development of erosion and karst processes, thedevelopment of which is due to lack of the necessary measures forland reclamation. Also dangerous is the increase in the area set
aside for storage of municipal solid waste and the development ofillegal dumps [1].
One of the most perspective directions will be developed withthe orientation on the new technologies and methods, organic agricultural development (high quality fruit and vegetable growthand production of ecologically clean meat and dairy products). Thiswas developed in the agricultural industrial complex ” Nepetzino”
which provide high quality products for hospitals and childrenpreschools. It is also worth and products mentioning a small enter253

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Fig. 3. Development of economic activity in rural areas

prise «Ecovillage» producing clean products, successfully sellingits meat dairy.
The complex use of natural and socio-economic resources resultsin the development of different possibilities of new directions, one ofthem is agricultural tourism as part of agricultural economy (Fig. 3).
Agricultural tourism may be also include fishing and includes workand rest in the farms. There are 41 farms in this territory. Their area
amounts to 1,9 ha, 67% being pastures. The first contact zoo in Moscow region appeared in Gorky and serves at the base for rural development of this area.
Recreational development is determined by favorable natural conditions enabling all year round activity along different directions;natural and history — cultural sites; special landscape scenery of
Middle Russia and temperate ecology.
Tourism may be developed on the basis of 101 sites of city architecture, 57 historic — cultural monuments, 22 of them being of federal significance. To maintain satisfactory ecology it is necessary todevelop ecological tourism on specially protected natural territories.
At present specially protected natural territories occupy only 0,3% of
the region. It is also worth mentioning the fast development of cottage construction. In summer the population living in the country
amounts to 64,8 thousands of people.
The example of successful combination of economic activity aimed
at development of modern agricultural enterprises is the fishery «Os254

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Fig. 4. The positive aspects of the development of rural tourism

enka». Being a model territory it represents example for possiblecombinations of agriculture, recreational and protection of natural
management (Fig.4).
Conclusion
Territorial increase of recreational and specially protected environments at the expense of non-developed territories and ameliorationof socio-economic conditions, such as the creation of work places will
eventually change this area and make it more attractive as a future
residential habitat.

1.

2.

References
Vorobyova T.A., Klishina A.A. Cartographic support existing environmental studies in order to optimize it. Sustainable Developmentof Territories: GIS theory and practical experience. Proceedings of theinternational conference. Smolensk, 2012. P. 311–314 [in Russian].
Nefedova T.G., Treyvish A.I. Moscow region — around capitalregion // Geography. 2008. № 6. P. 14–22 [in Russian].

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Tatiana Zengina, Mikhail Slipenchuk, Andrey
Piotrovskiy
Department of Nature Management, Faculty of Geography,
Lomonosov Moscow State University

Biological Risk Factors
for Aquatic Ecosystemsof the Baikal Natural
Territory – Investigations
within a Project“Lehman–Baikal– 2015”

Ground investigations of coastal aquatic vegetation of Lake Baikal
and inland water bodies of th e Baikal Natural Territory (BNT) wereamong the main goals of the field campaign-2015 within the project“Lehman-Baikal-2015”.
The special attention was paid to the problems relating to identifying and studying the mass development in the coastal waters offilamentous algae (including Filamentous macroalgae Spirogyra sp.)and the fast expansion of some invasive species of aquatic vegetation(including Elodea Canadensis Michx.), that have now become a real
biological risk factor for aquatic ecosystems of the BNT.
For solving all the main goals and objectives of the project various investigations were carried out: hydrological, hydro-chemical,
botanical, landscape, etc., as well as microscopying of filamentous
macroalgae and ground hyperspectral spectrometry (Fig.1). About
40 descriptions of individual species and plant communities of coastal aquatic vegetation of Baikal and inland water bodies of the BNT
were made in accordance with specially designed blanks of 3 different types. 40 samples of filamentous algae were selected, microsco256

Poster Presentations / Russian contribution

Fig. 1. Some studies conducted during the field work (hydrological, hydro-chemical,
botanical and sampling of phytomass, ground hyperspectral spectrometry and etc.)

pyed, their generic assignment were determined and the results werecompiled to the album of algae microscopy consisting of 43 pages.
More than 120 spectra of individual species and plant communities
of coastal aquatic ecosystems on 36 sites were obtained by ground
hyperspectral spectrometry with Ocean-Optics-USB-2000 and results were compiled to the album of spectrometry consisting of 108
pages. So the extensive varied data were obtained. For today thesedata have only a preliminary interpretation and certainly require further processing and analysis.
Elodea Canadensis Michx. — is a perennial aquatic plant native
to North America. For Eurasia it is an invasive (introducted) species(fig.3). In Lake Baikal Elodea was first observed at the end of the‘70s in the Selenga River shallows. Then it rapidly mastered almost
all the bays, gulfs and sors of the Baikal lake. The rapid spread of itis associated with intensive navigation. In subsequent years Elodea
started to spread over ponds and streams of Zabaikalie. Thus, a new
Baikal-Angara-Selenga transboundary invasive corridor of Elodea
canadensis’s locality began to form [1].
After implementing the ecosystem Elodea begins rapidly grow up
and bloom, sometimes filling more than a third part of water volume.
The depth of it penetration may be about 1–3 meters. The formation
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Fig. 3. Elodea Canadensis Michx

Fig. 2. Eutrophication of Lake Kotokel

Fig. 4. The massive outbreakof the development of blue-green
algae Gloeotrichia echinulata in
Lake Kotokel in July, 2015

of powerful thickets of Elodea Canadensis usually leads to the depletion of floristic composition of the pond and to the massive development of the genus Cocconeis. Changes in the structural organizationof phytocenoses is also reflected in the abundance of invertebrates.
After 6-10 years Elodea fully cycles from development to extinction. After the initial phase of rapid bloom comes the decrease of its
amount and hundreds of tons of dead grass lie on the bottom of thelake, where it begin to decompose. Decomposition of huge biomass
may be a factor of the development of the pond cyanobacteria (bluegreen algae), producing the toxin microcystin LR, which becomesthe cause of the mass death of fish and a source of toxic human disease so-called “Gaffsky disease” syndrome (alimentary toxic paraksizmalnoj mioglobonurii). Microcystin by ingestion of aquatic andsemi-aquatic animals and humans amazes the skeletal muscles, kidneys and liver, and tends to accumulate in the fatty tissues.
Lake Kotokel (Fig.2) has always been a popular recreation area
and also it was a fishery water body of the first category. There are258

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about 40 tourist bases and rest homes on the banks of Kotokel, but
most of which are now closed. In July 2008 the severe environmental situation formed here. The consequence of this situation was theseries of poisonings among residents of coastal villages (one person
died). A ban on the use of the lake Kotokel for recreational, drinking and household purposes was introduced. The cause of the ban
was the disease outbreak of enterovirus infection — Gaffsky diseases associated with swimming in the lake and using of contaminated fish caught in the lake. As the main cause of the incident is
considered the introduction in 1986 into the lake nonnative aquaticplant Elodea Canadensis. Currently it has come the full cycle fromdevelopment to extinction. The result of this process — was the highcontent of toxic cyanobacteria and microcystin arising from the life
activity of blue-green algae which actively developed as a result of
decomposition of the Elodea (data 2010-2012). No less significant
factor in the development of enterovirus infection, besides eutrophication of the lake, can be considered the other forms of pollution,
first of all associated with the previously active recreation development in the coastal zone of the lake.
The employees of the department of environmental management continued for 4 years to monitor the status of some hydrochemical parameters on the lake: the amount of heavy metals (Zn,Cu, Pb), phosphorus mineral (P min), pH, total mineralization, nitrogen form, hardness, calcium, magnesium, bicarbonate anion(alkalinity), chlorides, evaluation and other organic matter. The
assessment of the current state of the aquatic ecosystem of thelake Kotokel and controlling the possibility of re-development of
Elodea canadensis is an important goal because can contributeto the restoration of recreational potential of Kotokelsky recreational zone.
The situation of previous years — until 2014 — indicates somestability in the state of the aquatic ecosystem of the lake Kotokel.
Instances of Elodea met single specimens and were severely depressed. However, in 2015 on the background of sharp decreasing of
the water level in the lake a massive outbreak of the development of
Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) Gloeotrichia echinulata was re259

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corded (fig.4). Mass reproduction of blue-green algae, known as “water bloom” is a phenomenon of ecological order, it has important biological and medical importance. It is accompanied by accumulationin the body of many aquatic organisms and aquatic environment
potent toxic substances produced by some species of cyanobacteria, including Gloeotrichia echinulata. Thus in the connection with2015 situation it is necessary to conduct the regular comprehensive
sanitary survey of the lake by the local sanitary-epidemiologicalservice, with obligatory inclusion of microbiological, toxicologicaland sanitary helminthological researches. It is also desirable to undertake further multidisciplinary more detailed study of the ecosystem of the lake with the involvement of specialists in different fields(hydrobiologists, microbiologists, algologists, limnologists, hydrochemists et al.), which will really appreciate the modern ecologicalsituation in the lake and evaluate the possibilities and prospects forrecreational use of the lake based on the modern dynamic trends of
its development.
Supposedly a similar threat has been detected in a number ofsmall recreational lakes of BNT. So in 2014, at Lake Bakany it was
detected a massive development of Elodie Canadensis, but in 2015
only a few instances of algae were observed. Perhaps here lies therisk of recurrence of the environmental situation which occurred a
few years ago in the lake Kotokel. In Slyudyanskie Lakes, where
Elodea in 2005 was absolutely absent, algae accumulation areas were
described in 2015. All these facts support the idea about formationof a new Baikal-Angara-Selenga transboundary invasive corridor of
Elodea Canadensis [1].
Currently the problem of Elodea Canadensis concerns not only
small lakes of BPT, but also large inlets and bays of the lake Baikal.
Formation of thick tangles of Elodea on the bottom shallow Baikal
bays causes pauperization of floristic composition of phytocenoses
and have a strong effect on the abundance of invertebrate animals[2]. Elodea also has been found by us during the field campaign-2015
in many shallow bays of Baikal (in Maloye More strait, in a shallow lagoons — Posolsky and Angarsky Sor, in Chivyrkuisky, Mukhor,
Barguzinskiy and other bays) (Fig. 5).
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A

B

C

D

Fig. 5. Elodea Canadensis Michx. in Chivyrkuisky Bay: A- thick tangles of Elodea attachedat the bottom of Firtikh Bay (underwater photo); B,C - sampling Elodie on phytomass inOnkogongskaya Bay; D - accumulations of teared off or not rooted Elodea on the water
surface in Krutogorsky Bay.

However, today the main threat to Baikal is the active spread of
Spirogyra sp. and other filamentous alga. Mass blooming of Spirogyra sp. is often observed in waters exposed to eutrophication.
Previously in the cold waters of Baikal it presence noted only insome bays and gulfs, moreover very rarely. But in 2010, the unusual for Baikal mass blooming of Spirogyra was first noted in thesouthern Baikal. The next years Spirogyra continued to spread, andits distribution area represents is expanding rapidly. In the areasof mass development it forms dense carpet covers the coastal rocks
and stones displacing the unique native species of algae, becoming
the cause of death of animal species, including gastropod mollusks.
When it dying the giant accumulations of decaying algae Spirogyra
submitted to strew shore and beaches. It was found that the mass
bloom of algae Spirogyra currently occurs almost along the entire
east coast of the lake Baikal and almost half of the west coast. It iscurrently considered as one of the most urgent environmental prob261

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Beach Area of Severobaykalsk — decaying Spirogyra (2014)

Beach Area of Severobaykalsk – a huge massof decaying Spirogyra and dead shellfish (2014)of decaying Spirogyra and dead shellfish (2014)

Beach Area of Severobaykalsk —decaying Spirogyra (2015)

Fig. 6. The most critical situation with active development of Spirogyra has developedin the area near Severobaykalsk«Clouds» of Spirogyra and other filamentous

Gloeotrichia echinulata (underwater photo), Nostoc pruniforme, Ulotrix zonata
Fig. 7. Filamentous algae in Lake Baikal and small lakes of BNT

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Spirogyrasp.

Ulotrix
zonataCladophorasp.

Gloeotrichia
echinulata

Microcystis
sp.

Fig. 8. Most frequently encountered green algae (Chlorophyta) (including filamentous)
and blue-green algae (Cyanobacteriae), which can evoke algal blooms, produce the toxic
agents and disimprove the environmental situation in aquatic ecosystems of the BNT(the fragments from the album”Results of algae microscopy”)

lems for the Lake Baikal and some authors interpreted it as “theenvironmental crisis” [3, 4].
The more catastrophic situation has developed in the vicinity of Severobaikalsk city. During last 3–4 years Beach Area of
Severobaykalsk completely lost its recreational attractiveness in connection with the accumulation of a huge mass of decaying Spirogyra
in the coastal waters of Lake Baikal and the beach surface (Fig.6).
Mass development Spirogyra presumably is associated to exposure
to the river Tya untreated waste water of the city.
Active development of other filamentous algae was also registered in 2014 and 2015 in almost the entire perimeter of the central
and northern part of the lake Baikal and in all studied small inland
lakes of the BNT (Fig.7). Apparently this is due to changes in climatic conditions, fluctuations in water level in Baikal, as well as thedischarge of poorly treated wastewater.
Sampling and microscopy of filamentous algae to determine thespecies composition in the areas of it rapid development has shownthat in 12 sampling points out of 40 points Spirogyra amounts
to 100%, and in 6 sampling points — more than 80% of the total
species composition (Fig.8). Microscopy of samples for transferring the results to the department of environmental management(for preparing the album of microscopy) was performed by the researcher of the Institute of Biology at Irkutsk State University O.O.
Rusanovskaya.
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Conclusion. Conducted researches have shown that mass development in the coastal waters of filamentous algae and the fast
expansion of some invasive species of aquatic vegetation is a very
widespread phenomenon today, that occupy an extensive water areas. In this connection it is necessary to develop new methods formonitoring the situation, implying not only the land but also a Remote sensing methods. In this context in 2015 the works on ground
spectrometry and creation of the library of hyperspectral images ofstudied species were conducted.

1.
2.

3.

4.

References
Bazarova B.B., Pronin N.M. Elodea Canadensis Michk from
Chivyrkui Bay, Lake Baikal. Geography, 2006, p. 59–62 [in Russian].
Silow E.A., Krashchuk L.S., Onuchin K.A., Pislegina H.V.,
Rusanovskaya O.O., Shimaraeva S.V. Some recent trends regarding Lake Baikal phytoplankton and zooplankton, Lakes and Reservoirs: Research and Management, 2016, Volume 21, Issue 1, p. 40–44[in Russian].
Timoshkin O.A., Bondarenko N.A., Volkova Ye.A., Tomberg
I.V., Vishnyakov V.S., Malnik V.V. Mass development of green
filamentous algae of the genera Spirogyra and Stigeoclonium (Chlorophyta) in the littoral zone of the southern part of lake Baikal. Hydrobiological Journal. 2015. Т. 51. № 1. p. 13–23 [in Russian].
Timoshkin O.A., Malnik V.V., Sakirko M.V., Boedeker Ch.
Ecological crisis in lake Baikal: diagnosed by scientists. Science First
Hand. 2015. Т. 41. № 2. p. 24–41.

264

The 3rd Russian-Japanese / The 2nd STEPSCollaboration Seminar for Sustainable
Environment: 3 days in Moscow

265

1. Delegation from the University of Tokyo at the map of Russia

2. On the eve of the opening of the seminar, the deputy of the State Duma, Prof. M.V.
Slipenchuk received guests from Tokyo in the main building of the Russian parliament266

3. During the reception of Prof. M.V. Slipenchuk spoke about the work of the Russian parliament in the field of environmental policy and about cooperation between Russia and Japan

4. During a walk around Moscow: Ms Luisa Fernanda Santa Spitia and Mr Satoshi
Watanabe267

5. Dr. Kumiko Tsujimoto and Prof. Wataru Takeuchi

6. Japanese guests at the Bolshoi
Theater268

7. Opening of the seminar. Moderators: Dean of the Faculty of Geography Prof. S.A.
Dobrolyubov and head of the Department of Nature Management Prof. M.V. Slipenchuk

8,9 At the opening of the seminar were its distinguished guests: Mr. Onishi Kazuyoshi of the Embassy of Japan in Russia and Prof. V.A. Kolosov, President of the International Geographical Union

269

10 Russian andJapanese moderatorsof the sessions:
Dr N.N. Alekseeva andProf. S. Sato

11 Dr. A.A. Pakina andProf. S. Yamoguchi.

12 Prof. Yu. L.Mazurov
and Dr. S. Watanabe270

13 Dr. K. Hatoyama introduces to the seminar participants a proceedings of the 2nd
Russian-Japanese seminar on sustainable environment

14 Report at the seminar: head of the

15 Prof. Shinji Sato:report on flooding risk

Department of Oceanology, Faculty ofmanagement in urbanized coastal zone.

Geography, MSU, Corresponding Memberof the Russian Academy of Sciences, Prof.
S.A. Dobrolyubov

271

16 Presentation by Prof.

17 Presentation by Dr. Sergey Sokratov,

Makoto Shimamura, Director-General,

Dept of Cryolithology and Glaciology, MSU

Innovation Center for Meteorological
Disaster Mitigation, glaciology andmeteorology, NIED18 Prof. Satoru Yamaguchi. Report

19 The theme of sustainable development

on snow and ice research in National

was vividly presented in the report of Dr.

Research Institute for Earth Science and

Yu Maemura

Disaster Resilience.

272

20 Dr. Satoshi Watanabe.

21 Japanese students were very active in
professional discussions.

22 Comments from Dr Alla Pakina.

273

23 Participants of the Poster session.

24 Participants of the Poster session.

274

25 Participants of the Poster session.

26 Participants of the Poster session

Photos:A. Klishina, I. Margolina,
Yu. Mazurov , O. Yasnopolskaya
275

Contents

PREFACE
Yuri Mazurov. Environmental risks and future we want.
Preface and acknowledgements������������������������������������������������������������������ 4
OPENING REMARKS
Mikhail Slipenchuk���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 8
Sergey DOBROLYUBOV������������������������������������������������������������������������11
Onishi KAZUYOSHI��������������������������������������������������������������������������������15
Vladimir KOLOSOV��������������������������������������������������������������������������������17
Plenary Papers
Session 1“Global environmental risk”
Sergey DOBROLYUBOV. Modelling natural risks
in the Russian seas ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 19
Shinji SATO. Flooding risk management in urbanized
coastal zone��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������32
Nina ALEKSEEVA. Experience of the global
environmental trends study in the European Unionand its application for Russia ������������������������������������������������������������������41
Satoshi WATANABE. Hydrological risks underclimate change ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������50
Session 2“Technologies to understand risks”
W. TAKEUCHI, S. DARMAWAN, R. SHOFIYATI,
M.V. KHIEM, K.S. OO, U. PIMPLE and S. HENG. Geoinformation technology for drought monitoring and early warning
system in Asia����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������57
276

Alla PAKINA, Anastasia KARNAUSHENKO.
Renewable energy resources for green economy:case of Belgorod region ����������������������������������������������������������������������������70
Special Session I“Meteorological risks in Cryosphere ‑further collaboration with MSU, UTokyo& National Research Institute for Earth
Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED)”
Makoto SHIMAMURA. The railway protection forest.
A century long maintenance and the future outlook ������������������������82
Sergey SOKRATOV. Comprehensive Arctic geographicalresearch at the Faculty of Geography ��������������������������������������������������88
Satoru YAMAGUCHI. Snow and ice research in National ResearchInstitute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED)������������� 94
Session 3“Urbanization risk management”
Kiichiro HATOYAMA, Daiki HIRAMATSU.
Transportation management against natural disasters ������������������101
Yu MAEMURA. Development aid agendas in Japan:
challenges in sustainable development ����������������������������������������������109
Irina IVASHKINA, Boris KOCHUROV. Cities of Baikal region:
environmental challenges of spatial development����������������������������119
Diana DUSHKOVA. The role of ecosystem services in reduction ofhealth risks in cities: cases from Germany����������������������������������������� 130
Special Session II“Attractions and risks at the Baikal region”
Michail SLIPENCHUK, Elena VOROBYEVSKAYA, Natalia
SEDOVA, Tatyana ZENGINA. The complex geographical
expeditions in the Republic of Buryatia����������������������������������������������148
Tamir BOLDANOV, Gennady MUKHIN. Climatic changes andenvironmental risks of nature management at the Baikal Region����� 156
277

Session 4“Nature and environmental risks and policies”
Yuri MAZUROV.
Environmental policy in Russia and education  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 163
Kumiko TSUJIMOTO. Land-lake-atmosphere interaction under global
climate change and regional landuse change over a large tropical lake
and its vicinities: case study in Cambodia  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 171
Sofia KISELYOVA, Elena GOLUBEVA, Elena GLUKHOVA,
Tatyana KOROL, Andrey KUDINOV, Aleksey SAYANOV. Potential of renewable energy in development of green economy in the
Baikal region .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  177Poster Presentations
Japanese Contribution
Yudai AOYAGI. Experimental study on gentle slope
failure by the Kumamoto earthquake in 2016��������������������������������� 185
Hiroaki IKEUCHI, Yukiko HIRABAYASHI, Dai YAMAZAKI.
Assessing the effect of storm surges on fluvial flooding in a megadelta region  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 188
Genki KAWAMURA, Akiyuki KAWASAKI.
Geographical characteristics of flood and poverty — the case study in
Myanmar������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 193
Yuki KIMURA, Yukiko HIRABAYASHI, Masahiro TANOUE,
Yukiko IMADA.
An event attribution of the 2012 Amazon flood ��������������������������������198
Hiroya MAEDA, Yoshihide SEKIMOTO, Toshikazu SETO.
An easy infrastructure management method using on-board
smartphone and citizen reports by deep neural network��������������� 202
Yuta MAEKAWA, Takuya MIKI, Satoshi NISHIMURA.
Evaluation of secondary consolidation in peats based on Isotachemodel����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 207
Yoshinao MATSUBA, Shinji SATO. Nearshore topography
estimation by image analysis ����������������������������������������������������������������210
Masataka MIZUTANI, Wataru TAKEUCHI,
Moriyama MASAO.
Wildfire detection around Lake Baikal by Himawari-8��������������������214
278

Shogo NAKATA, Yukiko HIRABAYASHI, Shinichiro
FUJIMORI, Satoshi WATANABE.
A CGE analysis of economic costs of flood considering indirect loss:a case study of 2011Thailand flooding disaster����������������������������������217
Luisa SANTA SPITIA, Reiko KUWANO.
Effect of water flow in internal erosion of sandy soils��������������������� 222
Moemi YAMAMOTO, Kiichiro HATOYAMA.
Housing recovery projects accompanying relocation in the affected
coastal areas after disaster — 1993 Southwest -off Hokkaido
earthquake and 2011 Great East Japan earthquake������������������������� 226
Russian Contribution
Ekaterina ARISTARKHOVA.
The lichen indication value in the evaluationof environmental risks���������������������������������������������������������������������������� 230
Aleksandra BANCHEVA.
Air pollution risk potential as index of sustainability to industrial
impact (case study of the Hokkaido Island)��������������������������������������� 237
Irina CHERNOVA, Viktor ZHURAVLEV.
Geoecological research at the Central zone of Baikal: environmental
and tekhnogenic risks����������������������������������������������������������������������������� 241
Alexandr EVSEEV, Tatyana KRASOVSKAYA,
Alexey MEDVEDKOV.
Dimensions of “Clean Ugra” brand formation����������������������������������� 245
Alisa KLISHINA, Tatiana VOROB’EVA.
Rural development based on natural protection��������������������������������251
Tatyana ZENGINA, Michail SLIPENCHUK,Andrey PIOTROVSKIY.
Biological risk factors for aquatic ecosystems of the Baikal natural
territory — investigations within the project“Lehman-Baikal-2015” ��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 256
PHOTO GALLERY:
The 3 Russian-Japanese / The 2nd STEPS Collaboration
Seminar for Sustainable Environment:
3 days in Moscow������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 265rd279

Scientific edition
Environmental Risks for Socioeconomic Development
Proceedings of the 3rd Russian-Japanese (2nd STEPS)
Collaboration Seminarfor Sustainable Environment

ISBN 978-5-90363-194-0

Editorial Board:
Kiichiro Hatoyama,Yu.L. Mazurov

Design and prepress by Aleksandr Isakov
Printing company “trolleybus 42”
Circulation 350 copies