1Kyoto University

19th AIM International Workshop
13th – 14th December, 2013
NIES, Tsukuba, JAPANGakuji KURATA
Pichnaree Lalitaporn, Minna Guo, Ken Senoo, Naoya Kuramoto

Kyoto University

2Kyoto University

Model Simulation of PM2.5 during January to March 2013 fromChina to Japan.
Observation and model simulation of severe haze event inJune 2013
Development of personal exposure model to estimate
the health impact
15years trend analysis of Satellite retrieval NO2 andAerosol Optical Depth (AOD) around Asian region.
Design of framework to estimate co-benefits, especially forresidential sector and urban activities.

3Kyoto University

Model Simulation of PM2.5 during January to March 2013 fromChina to Japan.
• From January to March 2013, US Embassy in Beijing recorded very high PM2.5
concentration in Beijing. (over 800 μg/m3).
• Also, PM2.5 level at the major cities in China showed Hazardous level (over 250μg/m3 )• During this period, relatively high PM2.5 concentration was observed in Japan,
especially western part of Japan.
900
800
700(μg/m3)

600
500

Environmental
Standard(75 μg/m3)

400
300
200
100
0
JAN/01

JAN/08JAN/15

JAN/22

JAN/29Source: US embassy at Beijing

Kyoto University

Description of Simulation
 Meteorological Model
WRF version 3.4
36km x 36km
input Meteorological : NCEP FNL
 Chemical Transport Model
CMAQ version 5.0
Chemical Solver: CB5-Aero4
 Period
20th December 2012 ～ 31st March 2013
 Emission Inventory
Combined Emission : EDGAR 4.2 , GEIA and REAS
Reference year of Emission: 2008 (apply no Adjustment)

4

5

Kyoto University

2.5

Daily average of PM2.5 [μg/m3]

Daily average of PM2.5 [μg/m3]

Daily average of PM2.5 [μg/m3]

Kyoto University67Kyoto University

1.
2.
3.
4.

Northern China
South-East China
South-West China
Other Asia

Contributions from above
four area were calculated .

OtherSW-China

PM2.5

SE-China N-China

contribution of Emission from China (Black Carbon)

Obs at W-Japan

Other
Contribution (ug/m3)

PM2.5 concentration (ug/m3)

Period: 26th January 2013
- 4th February 2013

SW-China

Black Carbon

SE-China N-China

8Kyoto University

Northern China

Coastal China
Southern inland China

Contribution from Northern China islarge for Korea and Japan.
However, Contribution from Southeninland China reach to Japan,
periodically.

89Kyoto University

Observation and model simulation of severe haze event inJune 2013

Marina Bay Hotel (Singapore)

22 June(BBC news)

Causeway （Malaysia - Singapore） (Alter net)

21 June19 June

10

Kyoto University

GRIMM EDM164
PM：0.25μm-34um , 31 ch.
1～2,000,000 particles/L
dust mass: 0.1～6,000μg/m3
Time resolution : ～1 min.
Meteorology:
wind, temperature,precipitation, RH

Operating under SATREPS project600

Total PM (Nov 2012 – June 2013)

500
400
300
200

11月

12月

1月

2月

3月

4月

5月

6月

100
0■～1μm
■1～2.5μm■2.5～4μm■4～10μm■10μm～PM2.5 concentrtion[μg/m3]10 June – 24 June

11Kyoto UniversityNASA LANCE-FIRMS Database
Location of Forest Fire and estimated fire intensity (Based on SatelliteMonitoring) [semi-realtime dataset]
Fire location during

1 June 2013～ 10 July

JohorSingapore

Kyoto University

Description of Simulation
WRF version 3.4 & CMAQ version 5.0
Grid size: 16km x 16km,
Period: June 1st - 30th June 2013
Emission Inventory
Anthropogenic and Biogenic
EDGAR 4.2 , GEIA and REAS+ Forest Fire: NASA LANCE-FIRMS
Chemical Component ofBiomass Burning at Indonesia

1213

Kyoto University

Simulation Result ( PM2.5)
Simulation Resultat UTM location

20- 23 June 2013
OCNitrate

Majorcomponents

Observation

at UTM campus [μg/m3]

６００４００２０００■～1μm■1～2.5μm■2.5～4μm■4～10μm■10μm～

14

Kyoto University

Development of personal exposure model to estimate
the health impact
DALYs attributable to household air pollution

Source: WHO(2011)

Energy consumption in Household (MJ/year/person)
Kyoto University

15

Coal

Wood
Cropresidue

16

Kyoto University

Single-Compartment Mass Balance Model under steady-state
assumption=Cm1 Se FvC+ p o

v + Fd V 

Formulation to calculate the concentration.
With Indoor emission ME A、B、CCmSe
1( Fp vC0 + )V( v + Fd )

w/o indoor emission ME D
Fp v
Cm =Cov + Fd
Outdoor ME E

Cm = Co3: 微環境) (m) (μg/m3)
Pollutantにおける大気汚染物質濃度(μg/mconcentration at micro environment
3
Pollutant concentration at Outdoor(μg/m3): 屋外大気汚染物質濃度(μg/m)

Penetration Factor (-): 浸透率(-): 換気回数(1/hr)
Air Exchange Rate (1/hr)

Deposition rate (1/hr): 除去率(1/hr)
Energy consumption (KJ/hr): 一時間当たり燃料消費量(KJ/hr)
Emission Factor (μg/KJ): 排出係数(μg/KJ)
3
Volume of Micro: 部屋の体積(m) Environment(m3)1601000
900
800
700
600
500
400300
200
1000

Rural
Xinjiang

Ningxia

1000

Qinghai

1200

Gansu

Shaanxi

Tibet

YunnanGuizhou

SichuanChong…

HainanGuangxi

Guang…

Hunan

Hubei

Henan

Shand…

Jiangxi

FujianAnhui

Zhejiang

JiangsuShanghaiHeilon…

Jilin

Liaoning

Inner…

Shanxi

Hebei

TianjinBeijing

01-4・
5-14・
15-19・EMP
15-19・UEM
20-24・UEM
20-24・EMP
25-29・UEM
25-29・EMP
30-34・UEM
30-34・EMP
35-39・UEM
35-39・EMP
40-44・UEM
40-44・EMP
45-49・UEM
45-49・EMP
50-54・UEM
50-54・EMP
55-59・UEM
55-59・EMP
60-64・UEM
60-64・EMP
65-69・UEM
65-69・EMP
70-74・UEM
70-74・EMP

1-4・
5-14・
15-19・EMP
15-19・UEM
20-24・UEM
20-24・EMP
25-29・UEM
25-29・EMP
30-34・UEM
30-34・EMP
35-39・UEM
35-39・EMP
40-44・UEM
40-44・EMP
45-49・UEM
45-49・EMP
50-54・UEM
50-54・EMP
55-59・UEM
55-59・EMP
60-64・UEM
60-64・EMP
65-69・UEM
65-69・EMP
70-74・UEM
70-74・EMP0

Kyoto University

17Rural

800

600

400200ME-E(L)(Outdoor-Low)

Average PM2.5 exposure (Upper: Urban Lower: Rural)
FemaleMale
ME-E(M)(Outdoor-Mid)

ME-E(H)(Outdoor-High)ME-D(Indoor-w/o-emission)

ME-C(Indoor-Lighting)ME-B(Indoor-Heating)

ME-A(Indoor-Cooking)18

Kyoto University

15years trend analysis of Satellite retrieval NO2 andAerosol Optical Depth (AOD) around Asian region.

Trend at Beijing
50

0.4

400.3

30

121080.2

20640.1

1001995

2000

2005

Trend at Bangkok

Trend at Remote area

20100199522000

2005

2010

0
1995

2000

2005

2010

19

Kyoto University

Design of framework to estimate co-benefits, especially forresidential sector and urban activities.
To quantify the co-benefit of LCS countermeasure to reduction ofhealth impact of air pollution
LCS policies
Emission inventory(Mesh data)
Downscaling

Death
DiseaseEmission
Inventory(Regional)

Co-benefit
Analysis

IndoorExposure
Micro
Environment

OutdoorCalculatedConcentration

ArcGISTime variation(Annual, Daily)

Emission
Mesh data

GCM
OutputLanduseTerrainHealthImpact

BoundaryCondition

CMAQ
WRFMeteo.
Field

Meteorological Model

ChemicalTransport
ModelImpact
Assessment

20

Kyoto University

Reduction by
CO2 measure.
AdditionalReduction by
CH4 + BC measure.

Shindell et al., (2012)• Health Impact of SLCP(expecially PM2.5 and Ozone) is very large.
• At the same time, SLCP contribute global radiative forcing.
• Recently, It is said that the rapid reduction of CH4 and BC can reduce thetemperature increase around 0.5 ℃ soon after the reduction.

Kyoto University••

Most BC-rich source emit OC
simultaneously. So, net radiative
forcing by such source negative.
Reduction of BC-rich source enhances
global warming.

Bond et. al., JGR (2012)

Open Burning

Industrial

Residential2122Kyoto University

Further development of emission estimation method forresidential sector. (Collect additional data for energy
consumption and cooking and heating equipment) Development of urban pollution model which canmanage roadside high concentration to improve
personal exposure model.
 Future estimation under BaU case and LCS scenarios.
 Validation of the model and historical health impact.
Thank you for your attention.