Coal
2022

Analysis and forecast to 2025

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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ThailandUkraineAbstract

Coal 2022

Abstract
Coal sits in the centre of climate and energy discussions because itis the largest energy source globally for electricity generation andfor the production of iron and steel and of cement, as well as thelargest single source of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The
current energy crisis has forced some countries to increase theirreliance on coal in spite of climate and energy targets.
Coal 2022 offers a thorough analysis of recent trends in coaldemand, supply, trade, costs and prices against a backdrop ofrising concern about energy security and geopolitical tensions. It
also provides forecasts to 2025 for demand, supply and trade – byregion and by coal grade. The report contains a deep analysis of
China, whose influence on the coal market is unparalleled by anyother country and in any other fuel.

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The IEA’s Coal Market Report has been published every December
since 2011, becoming the global benchmark for coal demand,
supply and trade forecasts. It is essential reading for anyone with aninterest in climate and energy.

Table of contents

Coal 2022

Table of contents
Executive summary ......................................................................................... 5
Demand ...........................................................................................................10
Supply .............................................................................................................35
Trade ...............................................................................................................53
Thermal Coal ................................................................................................57
Metallurgical Coal .........................................................................................66
Prices and costs ............................................................................................72
Prices ...........................................................................................................73
Costs ............................................................................................................86
Coal mining projects .....................................................................................95

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General annex ..............................................................................................107

Executive summary

Coal 2022

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Executive summary

Executive summary

Coal 2022

Executive Summary
Global coal demand is set to rise in 2022 amid the upheaval of the energy crisis
Coal used in electricity generation, the largest consuming sector, is
expected to grow by just over 2% in 2022. By contrast, coalconsumption in industry is expected to decline by over 1%, mainly
driven by falling iron and steel production amid the economic crisis.

Coal markets have been shaken severely in 2022, with traditional
trade flows disrupted, prices soaring and demand set to grow by
1.2%, reaching an all-time high and surpassing 8 billion tonnes forthe first time. In last year’s annual market report, Coal 2021, we
said that global coal demand might well reach a new peak in 2022
or 2023 before plateauing thereafter. Despite the global energy
crisis, our overall outlook remains unchanged this year, as various
factors are offsetting each other. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has
sharply altered the dynamics of coal trade, price levels, and supply
and demand patterns in 2022.

Global coal power generation rises to record levels

Fossil fuel prices have risen substantially in 2022, with natural gas
showing the sharpest increase. This has prompted a wave of fuelswitching away from gas, pushing up demand for more pricecompetitive options, including coal in some regions. Nonetheless,higher coal prices, strong deployment of renewables and energy
efficiency, and weakening global economic growth are tempering
the increase in overall coal demand this year. In China, which
accounts for 53% of global coal consumption, prolonged andstringent Covid-19 lockdowns have weighed heavily on economic
activity, undermining coal demand. At the same time, droughts andheat waves in China this summer accelerated coal burning to meeta surge in power demand for air conditioning.
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In 2022, high natural gas prices led to significant fuel switching tocoal in electricity generation in Europe, although both gas and coal
generation increased as the growth of wind and solar was
insufficient to fully offset lower hydro and nuclear power output. In
China, low hydropower output in the summer amid a big heat wave
pushed coal power generation significantly higher. In August, coal
power generation in China increased by around 15% year-on-year
to over 500 terawatt-hours (TWh). This monthly level of generation
is higher than the total annual coal power generation of any othercountry, except India and the United States. In India and China,
where coal is the backbone of electricity systems and gas accounts
for just a fraction of power generation, the impact of steeper gas
prices on coal demand has been limited. Nevertheless, increased
coal use in these countries has replaced some gas, which has beenpurchased by other regions willing to pay more for it. Coal power
generation will rise to a new record in 2022, surpassing its 2021

Executive summary

Coal 2022

Global coal demand is set to plateau through 2025, butmuch depends on developments in Chinalevels. This is driven by robust coal power growth in India and theEuropean Union (EU) and by small increases in China – and itcomes despite a decline in the United States.

In our forecast, global coal demand plateaus around the 2022 levelof 8 billion tonnes through 2025. However, given the current energy
crisis with all its uncertainties, a lurch into growth or contraction ispossible. This could be driven by changes in global economic
activity, weather conditions, fuel prices or government policies –among many other potential variables.

Europe’s U-turn on coal is temporary
Europe – and the European Union in particular – has been one of
the regions hardest hit by the energy crisis, given its reliance on
Russian pipeline supplies of natural gas. Lower hydro and nuclear
power output due to weather conditions, combined with technicalproblems in French nuclear power plants, put additional strains on
the European electricity system. In response, some European
countries have increased their use of coal power generation while
also accelerating the deployment of renewables and, in somecases, extending the lifetimes of nuclear plants.

Developments in China may well have the largest impact on theoutlook for global coal demand, since China accounts for more thanhalf of it. China’s power sector alone accounts for one-third of global
coal consumption. Coal consumption in China grew strongly in
2021, but growth is expected to remain relatively stagnant at an
average of 0.7% a year to 2025, largely because of the increase inrenewable power generation. In the 2022-2025 period, we expect
China’s renewable power generation to increase by almost
1 000 TWh, equivalent to the total power generation of Japan today.
Meanwhile, India’s coal consumption has doubled since 2007 at anannual growth rate of 6% – and it is set to continue to be the growthengine of global coal demand.

Under the threat of gas shortages and potential issues ensuring
sufficient power system adequacy, some coal plants that had closed
down or been left in reserve have re-entered the market. In mostcountries, this involved a limited amount of coal power capacity.
Only in Germany, with 10 gigawatts (GW), is the reversal at asignificant scale. This has increased coal power generation in theEuropean Union, which is expected to remain at these higher levels
for some time. But redoubled efforts to improve energy efficiency
and expand renewables will see EU coal generation and demand
return to a downward trajectory as soon as 2024 in our forecast.

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By contrast, coal use is forecast to maintain its downward trajectoryin the United States, and to fall considerably in the European Union
by 2025. At a global level, we expect new renewable generation tocover almost 90% of additional electricity demand through 2025.
With a modest increase in nuclear power generation and high gas

Executive summary

Coal 2022

the third largest coal exporter in the world and the sanctions haveas a result given rise to a reshuffling of global trade flows as buyers,
especially in Europe, seek alternative supplies. In addition, owing to
the lack of rail capacity, part of the Russian coal volumes previously
sent by rail to Europe or shipped from northwestern Russian ports
towards Europe cannot be redirected to the east or the south. This
has resulted in a decline of Russian exports and a tightening of themarket. The gap left by Russian coal supplies in Europe has been
largely filled by South Africa, Colombia and other smaller producers
such as Tanzania and Botswana. Indonesia, which started the yearbanning coal exports in order to meet its own domestic demand,once again demonstrated its flexibility as it shifted its exports to
Europe to help offset the Russian shortfall. By contrast, the UnitedStates is not a swing supplier anymore. Struggling with investment,
workforce shortages and transport bottlenecks, US coal exports are
set to decline marginally despite high prices. Meanwhile, rains andfloods in Australia have curtailed production, contributing to the tightmarket.

prices prevailing, coal power generation increases slightly to 2025.
Therefore, in the absence of low-emissions alternatives that canreplace coal at scale in the iron and steel sector in the near term,
global coal demand is set to remain flat through our forecast period.

An all-time high for coal production in 2022
China and India, the world’s largest coal consumers, are also thebiggest producers and, in addition, the top two coal importers. In
response to price rises and supply shortages, China and, to a lesser
extent, India, pushed up domestic coal production after summer
2021. In March 2022, Chinese production reached a new monthly
high and it is set to rise to a new annual record, with expected
growth of 8% for the full year, reducing the need for imports andreplenishing stocks. In India, the government has tried to increase
production for a long time to reduce imports. In 2021, coalproduction reached 800 million tonnes for the first time. In our
forecast, India’s production surpasses 1 billion tonnes by 2025.
Indonesia, the world’s third-largest producer, is also expected to
expand production to reach a new high in 2022, with exports playing
a more important role than domestic demand. With minor growth in
the United States and even in Europe, global coal production willrise above 8 billion tonnes in 2022, its highest level ever.

Tight markets and war premium propelled coal prices torecord levels in 2022

International coal trade is reshuffling as a result ofRussia sanctions
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered a series of bans andsanctions on Russia by many countries and companies. Russia is
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Supply and demand imbalances combined with high gas prices
pushed thermal coal prices to unprecedented highs in October
2021. Almost immediately, China and India accelerated productionin order to ease the market, and prices soon fell back to lower
levels. When Indonesia banned exports in January 2022,
international prices rose again while Chinese prices remained more

Executive summary

Coal 2022

stable, as the local market was well supplied. Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine in late February, however, sparked a surge in gas prices,which in turn pushed coal prices up to new records in March andduring the summer. Further support for prices came from a war
premium and an increasing perception of a risk of physical energy
shortages. Prices have moderated since the summer as supply
worries have eased. Rains in Australia further exacerbated market
tightness during the year, exceptionally pushing prices for highquality thermal coal above those for high-value coking coal. With
the EU ban on Russian coal phased in from April to early August,prices for Russian coal have been sharply discounted.

Despite record profits for producers, there is little
appetite for more investment in coal mining assets

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The record highs for coal prices seen since October 2021 and arenewed focus on energy security since Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine might have been expected to drive an uptick in investment
in coal mine assets. However, outside China and India, where
domestic production has been ramped up to reduce externalreliance, there are no strong signs of reversal of the investment
trends. Governments, banks and investors – as well as mining
companies – continue to show, in general, a lack of appetite forinvestment in coal, particularly thermal coal.

DemandCoal 2022

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DemandDemandCoal 2022

Global coal demand breaches 8 billion tonnes threshold despite slow growth in 2022
forecast to average 3.2% in 2022 as it struggles with the energy
crisis, rising inflation and strained supply chain disruptions.

Global coal consumption rebounded by a strong 6% to 7 929 million
tonnes (Mt) in 2021, after a sharp decline the previous year due tothe onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. A robust economic recovery,
especially in countries that rely heavily on coal, such as thePeople’s Republic of China (hereafter “China”) and India, while
higher natural gas prices prompted a wave of fuel switching to coal,with power generation up 8% to 5 344 Mt. Increased industrial
activity boosted coal use for non-power applications by 2.2% to
2 585 Mt.

Nevertheless, a convergence of factors is supporting an increase incoal demand. First, tight natural gas supplies and the resulting highgas prices are driving some countries and companies to turn torelatively cheaper coal. Second, heat waves and droughts in someregions of the world drove up electricity demand and reducedhydropower generation, creating a gap that had to be filled bymostly dispatchable thermal power plants. Last, nuclear power
generation was exceptionally weak in 2022, especially in Europe,
where France had to shut down a significant portion of its nuclear
capacity for maintenance.

China is by far the largest coal-consuming country, accounting for
53% of global demand. Overall, China’s coal consumption
increased by 4.6% to 4 232 Mt in 2021, with the strongest growth in
the first half of the year before slowing in the second half.

The largest increase in coal demand this year is expected in India(+7%/+70 Mt), followed by the European Union (+6%/+29 Mt) andChina (+0.4%/+18 Mt), mainly led higher by stronger power sector
use. Still, while coal-fired power generation in China and India isrising to keep pace with stronger demand, some European
countries have been temporarily switching to coal due to recordhigh prices for natural gas, low hydropower generation, andmaintenance-related closures at nuclear plants.

Coal demand in India, the second-largest consumer, increased byan even sharper 14%, or 128 Mt, in 2021. Other countries reporting
significant gains were the United States (+15%/+66 Mt), Germany(+19%/+26 Mt) and Poland (+12%/+13 Mt). Only a few countries
recorded declines last year, with South Africa posting the largest fallat -5% (-9 Mt).
By contrast, global demand growth for coal is expected to slow
markedly in 2022, rising by just 1.2% but still reaching a new recordof 8 025 Mt, slightly above the 2013 level (7 997 Mt). The lower
growth largely reflects the weaker global economy, with GDP

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A significant decline in coal consumption is seen in the
United States (-6%/-31 Mt), where the shift from coal- to gas-fired
power generation continues and coal producers struggle after yearsof underinvestment.

DemandCoal 2022

Global coal consumption set to plateau through 2025
Changes in global coal consumption, 2020-2025

9 000

Mt

8 300

8 000

8 200

7 000

8 100

6 000

8 000

5 000

7 900

4 000

7 800

3 000

7 700

2 000

7 600

1 000

7 500

0
2000
2005
China
United States

2010
2015
India
European Union

7 400

2020
2025
Other Asia
Rest of world

37

106

7 929

117
82

39

87

7 511

2020 2021 2022

Rest of world
India
Total

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8 038

8 025

Other Asia
United States

2025

China
European Union
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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Mt

Global coal consumption, 2000-2025

DemandCoal 2022

Global coal power generation hits another record in 2022
role in power, the impact of high gas prices on coal demand is more
muted. Consequently, some European countries postponedscheduled closures of coal power plants and activated coal-fired
reserve capacity to limit gas usage in the power sector. In total, we
forecast coal power generation to increase by 1.8% to 10 339 TWh,a new all-time high. Overall, we expect coal demand for power
generation to rise by 2.4% to 5 472 Mt, with China consuming morethan half of the increase.

Total electricity demand rebounded by 5.2% in 2021 as the strong
recovery in the global economy and adverse weather conditions
boosted consumption. In response to low hydropower generation
and weak wind conditions in some regions, coal-fired generationrose by 8% (+762 TWh), in tandem with an 8% increase (+392 Mt)
in coal consumption in the power sector.
Growth in electricity demand has moderated to an estimated 3% in
2022, tempered by the slow down in the world economy, which
offset increased power use due to exceptional heat waves in someregions. Electricity demand growth in China and India is above
trend, and forecast to rise by 4% and 7%, respectively.
Renewable energy will meet approximately 88% of the additional
demand in 2022, while the residual of ~221 TWh will be covered bycoal and natural gas. The current gas shortage and resulting higher
prices are supporting coal-based power generation worldwide,
notably in the European Union, where natural gas is particularly
expensive due to the Russian Federation (hereafter “Russia”)
cutting supplies. In China and India, where gas does not play a big

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From 2022 to 2025, global electricity demand is forecast to grow
2.8% annually on average, or by an absolute of ~2 496 TWh.
Renewable energy will provide the majority share of additional
demand at 90%. The remaining gap of ~83 TWh will be covered bycoal- and gas-fired power generation. The largest increases in coalburn are forecast for China (+5%), India (+7%) and Southeast Asia(+14%). Meanwhile, coal-fired power generation will continue tocontract in the United States (-18%) while a return to a declining
trajectory is expected for the European Union (-29%).

DemandCoal 2022

Strong growth in renewables will supply lion’s share of additional power demand, with coal andgas filling the remaining modest gap
Gas price markers, 2020-2025
USD/MBtu

70

TWh

60

2 500

159

50

2 000

40

1 500
1 000
500

2 497

-113

30

2 255

20

720

828

10

175

0
2021-2022

Additional power demand

Renewables

02022-2025

Nuclear and others

Coal

Gas

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

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TTF

Henry Hub
IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

3 000

Additional global power demand and generation by source,
2021-2025

DemandCoal 2022

Non-power thermal coal consumption stable in 2022-2025
From 2022 to 2025, thermal coal demand for non-power use isforecast to rise 0.3% per year as industrial production continues toexpand, especially in India. However, non-power use in China is set
to continue contracting, with increased demand from the conversion
sector more than offset by lower consumption in high energyintensive industries and sustained efforts to reduce coal in heating
and small industries.

Outside the power sector, thermal coal is used in various otheroperations, such as cement production or industrial and residential
heat applications. In 2021, non-power thermal coal consumption
increased by 2.8% to 1 475 Mt, accounting for 22% of total thermal
coal use. India posted the largest increase in thermal coal demand
for non-power uses, up 16% in 2021, mainly due to strong growth inindustrial production. In China, demand rose only marginally(+0.8%), driven by the country’s efforts to reduce thermal coal use
in the residential sector but also by a thermal coal shortage in thesecond half of 2021, which weighed on industrial consumption, e.g.
cement production.

Changes in thermal coal consumption for non-power purposes byregion, 2020-2025
Mt

100

In 2022, thermal coal demand for non-power purposes is expected
to remain stable as growth in India offsets a decline in China. An
overall weak economic performance is behind the downturn in
China’s demand. In particular, lower cement production weighed onthermal coal demand as did ongoing efforts to reduce coalconsumption for residential heating and small industries. By
contrast, thermal coal consumption in the conversion sector (i.e.
coal-to-liquids and coal-to-gas) rose as part of China’s strategy toincrease energy security by producing feedstocks such as hydrogenfrom domestic coal. India’s thermal coal demand outside the power
sector is expected to rise 7% in 2022 because of higher industrial
output.

China
India
50

Southeast Asia
Other Asia

0

European Union
Rest of world

- 50

World
2020-2021

2021-2022

2022-2025

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DemandCoal 2022

After a drop in 2022, global metallurgical coal demand to remain stable through 2025
Union, Japan, Korea, Russia, and China is offset by a strong
demand increase in India and the rest of the world, mainlySoutheast Asia.

Metallurgical (met) coal, which includes coking coal (hard, medium
and semi-soft) and pulverised coal injection (PCI) coal, is a primary
ingredient in steelmaking. Furthermore, coke (produced by heating
coking coal in the absence of oxygen) is used to produce carbides,
ferroalloys and other compounds. Therefore, our forecast is basedon steel production projections from organisations such as theWorld Steel Association as well as outlooks for industrial
production, GDP growth, among other factors.

Mt

1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0

Mt

Met coal consumption and annual changes, 2020-2025

Global met coal consumption increased 1.3% to 1 110 Mt in 2021,
as steel production recovered from a pandemic-related decline inmost major steel-producing regions, including India (+13%/+9 Mt),
the European Union (+13%/+7 Mt) and the United States(+28%/+4 Mt). However, in China, the world’s largest steel
producer, met coal demand fell by 2.5% (-19 Mt) as energy
shortages and a weaker construction sector curbed steel output.

40
20
0

- 20
- 40

2020-2021 2021-2022
RussiaKorea

2020 2021 2022
China
India
European Union Japan
Rest of world

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Changes in metallurgical coal consumption, 2022-2025

By contrast, in 2022 total met coal consumption is expected to
decline by 2.7%, or 30 Mt, largely due to high energy prices andslower global economic growth. The largest decline is expected in
China (-1.7%/-12 Mt), followed by Russia (-6%/-4 Mt) and theEuropean Union (-3.9%/-2.3 Mt).

Mt

1 120

8

1 100
1 080
1 060

From 2022 to 2025, met coal consumption is forecast to be stable
At 1 078 Mt by 2025, demand for metallurgical coal is forecast to bewell below the pre-pandemic level, as China’s steel production is
expected to remain muted. In total, lower use in the European

3

6

16

14

1 080

2022
Total
RussiaRest of world

4
1 078

China
European Union

2025
India
Japan and Korea

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DemandCoal 2022

China's coal consumption rebounded in 2021 but thereafter plateaus through 2025
1.8%, and metallurgical coal consumption, primarily for steel
production, by -1.7%. Overall, the power sector’s growth dominates,
and China’s coal demand will reach a new all-time high of~4 250 Mt in 2022, slightly above the 2021 level (+0.4%).

China’s economy grew strongly in the first half of 2021, driving thecountry’s coal demand higher. Coal supply could not keep pace withdemand growth in the first six months of the year, however, leading
to severe shortages starting in the second half of 2021, even as
economic growth slowed. China’s coal use rose 4.6% for the fullyear to 4 232 Mt, the highest ever. Whereas thermal coalconsumption increased 6.2% to 3 511 Mt, mainly for power
generation, metallurgical (met) coal demand declined by 2.5% to
720 Mt, hampered by energy shortages and a sluggish construction
sector.

China's economy is expected to expand by only 3.1% in 2022.
Except for the pandemic year 2020, this is the lowest economic
growth since 1977. For 2022, we expect coal-fired power generation
to increase modestly (+1.8%), resulting in coal demand of 2 664 Mt.
Thermal coal demand for non-power uses is expected to decline by

Based on these assumptions, we expect China’s coal consumption
will rise at a slower rate of 0.7% annually, though it will still reach a
new high of 4 337 Mt by 2025. Growth will be driven mainly by thepower sector, despite intense efforts to expand nuclear andrenewable energy capacity. Thermal coal demand in non-power
sectors will maintain the declining trend of recent years as small,inefficient coal boilers are continuously replaced by gas, district
heating, and electric solutions. China’s met coal consumption
appears to have already reached a peak in 2021, and will stabilise
and slightly decline until 2025. Outside of power, the only sector
with increasing coal demand is coal conversion, e.g. the productionof liquid fuels, synthetic methane and chemicals from coal.

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After posting strong growth last year, in 2022 China’s economy
weakened, in large part due to the government’s zero-Covid policythat has led to severe lockdowns and weighed heavily on domestic
consumption, industrial production and supply chain bottlenecks. In
addition, the collapse of China's real estate market has sharply
reduced new construction activity, which has upended demand for
cement and steel.

Our forecast for China’s coal demand through 2025 is underpinned
by two key assumptions: growth in GDP and industrial production.
We assume annual growth of ~4.7% on average for GDP and ~5%for industrial production. China’s electricity demand is forecast to
increase by ~5%.

DemandCoal 2022

Year-on-year percentage changes for various economic
indicators in China, January-October 2022

Annual changes in coal consumption by grade and use in China,
2022-2025
Mt

20%
15%

80
60

10%
5%

40

0%

20

-5%

0

-10%
-15%

- 20

-20%

- 40

Thermal generation

Steel production

Cement production

2022

2023

2024

2025

Steam coal (power)

Steam coal (non-power)

Met coal

Change in coal consumption
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Note: Coal-fired power generation values are not available on a monthly basis.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (2022), Statistical Database.

DemandCoal 2022

Coal-fired power generation – the backbone of China’s electricity system
China is by far the largest coal-consuming country, accounting for
53% of the world’s demand. Coal amounts to more than 60% of thecountry's primary energy consumption 1, making it the backbone ofChina’s economy. The power sector 2 was responsible for ~62% of
China’s total coal demand in 2021, or 2 617 Mt.

expected to remain at a low level in 2022, with only 7.5 GW
recorded in the first six months of the year.
In 2021, construction started on 33 GW of coal-fired power plants,
the most since 2016. In anticipation of further power shortages,
which first emerged in December 2020 and returned again insummer 2021, the government plans to build more coal-fired plants
to ensure adequate capacity in the future. New permits for coal-fired
power plants increased again in the first half of 2022, with China
approving a total capacity of 15 GW coal-fired power plants. In
2021, China accounted for ~55% of the global coal power capacity
under development and the share is expected to grow in 2022. In
Guangdong province, 14 GW of new capacity was approved thispast summer – the first new coal power plant approvals in five
years.

China commissioned a total of ~26 GW of new coal-fired power
plants in 2021. By contrast, coal-fired capacity additions are

Electricity demand is expected to grow by an average of ~4.8%
annually until 2025. Although we forecast electricity generation fromrenewables and nuclear to increase by 11% and 4.4%, respectively,
per year, this is insufficient to meet demand growth. Following thepower shortages in 2020 and 2021 and the draught in 2022,
national and local governments intend to further issue more permits

1

2

In accordance with Chinese statistics, which uses different metrics, it is 56%.
PAGE | 19

Includes district heating
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In the first half of 2022, coal consumption in China's power sector
fell by an estimated 3% due to a combination of weaker demand
and a sharp year-on-year rise in hydropower generation. However,in the second half of the year, a severe heat wave led to higher
electricity demand for cooling while a drought in central andsouthwest China reduced hydropower generation. As a result,electricity shortages developed in some hydropower-reliant regions,such as Sichuan. Meanwhile, coal-fired power generation reached ahistoric high of ~530 TWh in August amid soaring temperatures. As
a result, coal demand for power generation is expected to partially
recover in H2 2022 and increase by 1.8% for the year as a whole.

DemandCoal 2022

China’s rising power generation and demand, 2020-2025
TWhfor new coal power plants, with a potential of up to 270 GW coalfired power plant capacity by 2025, according to forecasts by China
Energy. If these plans are realised, the additional capacity would
total more than any other country in the world currently has
installed. However, it is unlikely that the additional coal-fired power
plants will be operated at full capacity, as they are largely intended
to ensure energy security and are therefore not expected to directly
increase coal consumption in China’s power sector. Moreover, theadditional capacity is not anticipated to be commenced to asignificant extent before 2025, so it does not impact the generation
capacity included in this report. Overall, we assume coal-fired
power generation will increase by 2.3% per year to ~5 731 TWh by2025, corresponding to projected consumption of ~2 803 Mt.

3 000
2 000
1 000
0
2022
2020
2021
Renewables
Coal and coal products

2025
2023
2024
Nuclear, gas, oil, other
DemandIEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 20

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

However, uncertainty about China’s actual coal-fired generation
output remains as cold snaps and heat waves can suddenly andsignificantly increase demand for electricity. As coal-fired power
generation is largely the default electricity supplier in China, volatileelectricity demand directly translates into fluctuations in coalconsumption. Moreover, as renewable generation capacity
increases, weather conditions will have a greater impact on the
supply of electricity and, thus, on demand for thermal power plants
to fill the generation gap. Of particular concern, rainfall and windconditions can vary significantly from year to year.

DemandCoal 2022

China’s non-power thermal coal demand decreases slightly, despite growth in coal conversion
are slowing the process, provinces and cities are expected tocontinue with efforts for substitution.

Thermal coal consumption in non-power applications rose to 895 Mt(+0.8%) in 2021, accounting for ~21% of China’s coal use. This issimilar to the total coal demand in Asia, outside of China and India.

A growing niche of China’s non-power thermal coal consumption iscoal conversion (coal-to-liquids, coal-to-gas, coal-to-chemicals).
The direction of this sector has been unclear in recent years, as thegoal of increasing energy security by reducing oil and gas imports
and China’s climate goals have conflicted. The current focus onenergy security and high oil and gas prices is an incentive for coalconversion projects, generally using local, even stranded, coal.
China Energy Group commissioned a 400 000 tonnes (t) coal-toethylene glycol conversion project in November 2021 and a
350 000 t coal-to-hydrogen conversion project in Yulin, Shaanxi in
September 2022. Until 2025, we forecast the coal conversion sector
to grow by just above 10% per year.

Heavy, energy-intensive industries consume about half of the nonpower thermal coal, of which ~50% is used in cement production.
The substitution of coal with other energy sources for cement andbuilding material manufacture, seen in recent years, is expected tocontinue slowly. More importantly, the slump in the real estate
sector and construction activity are currently adding downward
pressure on cement production. Cement output fell by 11% fromJanuary to October this year compared to 2021. In September,
China announced that emissions from its cement industry would
peak before 2023. However, based on the latest production
numbers, we do not expect the sector to recover quickly. Given the
declining share of the cement industry in overall coal consumption,
we believe China’s cement industry's demand for coal alreadypeaked in 2021. As a result, thermal coal consumption in heavy
industries is forecast to decline in 2022 by about 1.8% to 878 Mt.
Until 2025, it is expected to continue declining to 840 Mt (-4%).
Approximately one-quarter of non-power thermal coal demand has
been used for residential heating and light as well as non-energyintensive industries in 2021. This share has declined in recent years
thanks to efforts to reduce air pollution by replacing small, inefficient
coal boilers with gas and electric options. Although high gas prices
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IEA. CC BY 4.0.

China’s metallurgical coal consumption declined slightly in 2021 to
720 Mt (-2.5%), accounting for about 17% of the country’s coaldemand and ~65% of the global met coal demand. The declinereflected the weakness of the construction sector, which weighs on
the country’s steel demand. Because of Covid-19 restrictions, in
2022 scrap collection has been poor and therefore the pig iron/steel
ratio increased. Once the pandemic is under control, we expect thetrend to reverse. China’s met coal demand is forecast to decline by
1.7% in 2022 and fall by 2% in total until 2025 as the economic
outlook is mixed and the share of scrap metal is expected toincrease.

DemandCoal 2022

Robust economic growth fuels India's appetite for coal in 2022
6%, respectively. Overall, we expect 2022 thermal coalconsumption outside the power sector to rise by 7% and met coalby 2%.

India’s coal consumption surged to 1 033 Mt in 2021, a 14%
rebound from a pandemic low in 2020. About 93% (~959 Mt) of thecountry’s coal demand was thermal coal (including lignite), mainlyfor electricity generation (757 Mt). The rest was met coal usedprimarily in steel production (75 Mt). Demand for both types of coalincreased strongly: by 14% for thermal coal and 13% for met coal.

Year-on-year percentage changes for various economic
indicators in India, January-October 2022
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%

For 2022, we expect a 7% increase in coal demand. Despite theslowdown in global growth, the Indian economy is doing
exceptionally well, with GDP forecast to expand by 7.3% this year.
Coal demand is largely being led higher by a sharp increase inelectricity consumption, of which around 73% will be generated bycoal-fired power plants in 2022. We expect electricity demand togrow by 7% due to robust economic growth. Demand was also
supported by the severe heatwave from March to early May. In
April, the daily power deficit amounted to ~5% of overall supply on
national level and up to 15% in a few states. With such tightelectricity markets, we expect coal consumption in the power sector
to increase by 7% in 2022.

Power generation

Cement production

Sponge iron production

Hot metal production
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Coal-intensive industries, such as the cement and steel sectors,
continued to grow in 2022. From January to September, monthly
cement production averaged 11% higher year-on-year. The growthrate peaked in May before slowing in July when the onset of themonsoon season curbed construction activity. Monthly sponge ironand hot metal production increased by an average of about 1% and
PAGE | 22

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: IEA based on McCloskey (2022). McCloskey Coal, Metals and Mining Service

DemandCoal 2022

India’s coal demand continues to increase through 2025
~225 Mtpa to about 425 Mtpa in total by the end of the decade,which implies increasing capacity through 2025. Together withhigher steel production, we forecast the country’s coal demand for
non-power purposes to grow ~20% by 2025. At the same time, thegovernment of India has confirmed its target to gasify 100 Mtpa ofcoal by 2030.

Coal-fired electricity generation accounts for about 73% of India’s
overall power needs and will remain the most important source ofelectricity in the foreseeable future. Coal-fired power plants makeup 50% of the overall installed capacity of 404 GW connected togrids, with another 25 GW currently under construction.
We expect India’s coal demand to rise steadily to ~1 220 Mt in
2025, with a share of 8% for metallurgical coal and 92% for thermalcoal. Nevertheless, by targeting a share of 50% renewables in its
power mix by 2030, India seeks to alleviate the electricity sector’s
dependency on coal and reduce the cost of energy generation.
India facilitates investment in renewables by mandating 81 coalfired power plants to reduce power generation by a total of about
58 TWh over the next four years, however, without shutting down
any of its 172 power plants connected to the grid. Additionally, India
plans to establish a carbon market, consolidating existing certificate
markets related to energy efficiency and renewable energy
obligations. India is targeting an emission reduction of 45% of its
GDP’s emission intensity from 2005 to 2030.

Mt

Annual changes in coal consumption by type and use in India,
2021-2025
150

100

50

0

With production of about 344 Mt, India accounted for about 8% of
global cement production in 2021, ranking second after China,
which has a share of ~55% of the world’s production. Production inIndia is expected to grow substantially until 2025 and beyond.
India’s cement producers, such as Dalmia Bharat, Ultratech andAdani, plan to almost double their production capacity from2021

Met coal

2022

2023

Steam coal (non-power)

2024

2025

Steam coal (power)

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IEA. CC BY 4.0.

DemandCoal 2022

TWh

Yearly change in power generation by source, 2021-2025
200

100

0
2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

- 100
Renewables

Nuclear, gas, oil, other

Coal and coal products

PAGE | 24

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IEA. CC BY 4.0.

DemandCoal 2022

US coal demand continues its downward trajectory
to fall to just 16%, corresponding to an 18% drop in coal use fromthe 2022 level. The decline could be even steeper if the economic
situation worsens.

In the United States (US), coal-fired power generation remains on
downward trend after a brief but strong recovery of 15% in 2021.
Expansion of renewables is accelerating while the coal power fleet
continues to contract. More than 6 GW of coal-fired capacity was
retired or converted in 2021 and almost 13 GW is scheduled to beclosed in 2022. Limited access to coal due to logistical issues andhigh prices in global markets have put additional pressure on coalfired generation, increasing the share of renewables and naturalgas, despite the higher prices, in electricity generation. Coal's sharein electricity generation is expected to ease from 23% in 2021 to
20% in 2022. Overall, we forecast a 6.3% decline in coalconsumption in the United States, to 465 Mt, in line with shut-in
coal-fired electricity generation, which accounts for 92% of total coalconsumption.

GW

Change in US coal-fired generation capacity, 2010-2025
10
5
0
-5
- 10
- 15

Coal-fired power generation will continue to decline in the coming
years, with total capacity of 22 GW either retired or plants converted
by 2025. Moreover, we expect the US Inflation Reduction Act toaccelerate the transition to clean energy, further reducing US coaldemand. The Act will fund almost USD 400 billion in energy andclimate change spending, and includes more spending on clean
energies and expansion of energy infrastructure. Although the Act
includes carbon capture and storage projects (CCUS) that could
potentially use coal, we do not expect this to impact coal demand
until 2025. As a result, coal's share in the electricity mix is projected

History
Commissioned

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

- 20

Forecast
Retired
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IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: Capacity values for 2022 to 2025 are based on announced retirements.
Sources: EIA (2022), Electric Power Monthly and EIA (2022), Coal Data.

DemandCoal 2022

EU coal demand rebounds amid high gas prices before declining in 2024-2025
The European Union’s (EU) coal demand steadily declined for a
decade until it reached a low point in 2020 amid the Covid-19
pandemic and extraordinarily low gas prices undercut coal-fired
power generation. However, in 2021, tighter gas markets and theresulting rise in gas prices saw coal-fired power generation becomecompetitive again, despite higher European Union Allowance (EUA)
prices for carbon emissions. 3 Overall, coal consumption in theEuropean Union surged by 14% in 2021, led mainly by aresurgence in the power sector in response to the post-Covid
economic recovery and higher gas prices.

competitive than gas despite the EU’s implementation of sanctions
on coal imports from Russia on 10 August. The European Union
used to import around 45% of its coal from Russia, or about 52 Mt,
in 2021. Germany, Poland and the Netherlands are the EU’s largest
importers of Russian coal.
In addition to securing alternative supplies, EU countries have
implemented a series of policy measures to reduce gas use. A
number of EU countries (Germany, Finland, France, theNetherlands, Spain, Italy, Denmark, Greece, the Czech Republic,
Hungary and Austria) are extending the lifetime of coal-fired power
plants, restarting closed plants or lifting existing caps on generation.
In most of these countries, this affects small generation capacity,with Germany the exception. Germany created a ”gas replacement
reserve” with a total capacity of 11.6 GW. It includes 1.9 GW oflignite and 4.3 GW of hard coal power plants, that are now allowed
to return to the market until April 2024. The decommissioning of
2.6 GW of hard coal power capacity and 1.2 GW of lignite capacity
has been postponed. The remaining 1.6 GW is from oil-fired power
plants. By contrast, in Poland, the second-largest coal consumer inEurope, we expect only a slight increase in coal-fired power

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has upended bothcoal and gas markets and forced European countries to implementa series of measures to replace Russian supplies to meet coaldemand this year and in 2023. The loss of Russian gas imports
significantly exacerbated already tight supplies in Europe andpropelled prices to record highs. Also, available nuclear capacity
and weak hydropower have limited alternative sources in the EU’s
electricity mix. Given the acute gas supply shortages and resulting
unprecedented high gas prices, countries and utilities throughout
the region are turning toward coal, which remains more price

3

PAGE | 26

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In some cases, such as co-generation plants, additional revenue streams have to be consideredwhen assessing the profitability of generation units.

DemandCoal 2022

to about 93 Mt in 2025. By contrast, Polish coal-fired power
generation is expected to remain relatively firm until 2025, resulting
in a decline of thermal coal demand in the power sector by 6%.
Overall, coal consumption in the European Union is expected todecrease significantly, from 478 Mt in 2022 to 371 Mt in 2025,
although uncertainty surrounding the gas market could affect theoutlook for coal demand.

generation this year given limited capacity. Previously, Russia
supplied 20% of Poland’s domestic coal needs.
Amid these challenges, coal consumption by the EU’s power sector
is expected to increase 9%, or by 31 Mt, to a total of 377 Mt in
2022, which would be close to pre-pandemic demand levels in
2019. Non-power industrial coal demand is expected to decline by~2.3% because of high energy prices.

In the Republic of Türkiye (hereafter “Türkiye”), coal consumption is
forecast to rebound in 2022 and 2023 before it starts declining due
to increased renewable energy outpacing electricity demand. The
short-term rise is partially driven by the new 1.3 GW Hunutlu coal
power plant, which commenced operation in September 2022 andpushed imported coal-fired generation to an all-time high in
November.

The current forward markets indicate that the marginal costs ofcoal-fired power plants will be far below those of gas-fired power
plants in the next few years. This would only change in 2025 when
forward gas prices are low enough to place efficient gas-fired power
plants ahead of inefficient coal-fired ones. However, lignite-fired
power plants are expected to remain very competitive until 2025.

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Although European electricity markets are expected to remain tight
due to ongoing gas shortages and the German phase-out of nuclear
power, we expect EU countries to continue moving forward with
their plans to phase out coal-fired power generation from 2024
onwards. Germany, in particular, plans to reduce its power plant
fleet by 6.2 GW of hard coal and 2.9 GW of lignite power plant
capacity from 2021 to 2025. In view of a firm ramp-up of electricity
production from renewables and a recovery in French nuclear
power, our models indicate that Germany, the EU’s largest coalfired power generator, will turn from a net exporter of electricity to a
net importer in this period. Despite gas prices remaining at a highlevel, Germany’s coal-fired power generation and, thus, the thermal
coal demand in the power sector is expected to decrease by 57 Mt

DemandCoal 2022

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jan-20Jan-21

Jan-22

Coal (left axis)
TTF (gas) (left axis)
EUA (right axis)

Jan-23Jan-24Jan-25

500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

EUR/t

EUR/MWh

European Union marginal coal- and gas-fired power
generation costs, 2020-2025

CCGT (left axis)
API2 (coal) (right axis)
German lignite (left axis)
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 28

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: TTF = Title Transfer Facility. EUA = European Union Allowance. CCGT =combined-cycle gas turbine. API = Argus/McCloskey’s Coal Price Index. JCC = Japan
Crude Cocktail. CCGT net efficiency: 49-58%. Coal net efficiency: 35-46%. Lignite net
efficiency: 39%.
Sources: Argus Media group. All rights reserved. And IEA estimates.

DemandCoal 2022

High gas prices support coal demand in mature Asia Pacific economies through 2025
restart of the 1.4 GW Shin Hanual 1 nuclear reactor has beenannounced and is expected to take place before the end of 2022. In
2023, coal-fired power generation is projected to increase as the
2 GW Anin power station is scheduled to become operational andhigh spot gas prices persist. By 2025, however, Korean coal-fired
power generation will decline somewhat and reach about the samelevel as in 2022, despite the commissioning of another 2 GW coalfired capacity (Samcheok power station), as old units aredecommissioned and power generation from renewables increases.

In Japan, coal-fired power generation declined by 1.1% in 2021 due
to stagnating electricity demand and increased nuclear power
generation. In 2022, Japan’s coal demand is forecast to rise by
1.8% as operators shun higher-priced natural gas. The country’s
large long-term LNG supply contracts have largely shielded
operators from current steep gas prices and impacted coal-fired
power generation, an essential pillar of Japan’s electricity sector,
only to a lesser extent. Thermal capacity will increase by about
1.03 GW in total, of which coal-fired capacity will account for a net
gain of about 0.7 GW. Forward prices indicate that coal will remaincompetitive with spot gas for power generation through 2025. In
response to higher electricity prices and efforts to reinforce energy
security, Japan announced the intention to extent the lifetime of fourof its 33 available nuclear power plants to 60 years.

Chinese Taipei’s coal consumption amounted to 63 Mt in 2021, of
which 48 Mt was used in power generation. We expect coalconsumption to remain relatively constant in 2022. By 2025, coaldemand is forecast to increase by ~2.6 Mt, despite the country’splan to reach net-zero emissions in 2050. According to the plan, asof 2025, no coal-fired power plants will be constructed or
decommissioned. However, with the phase out of nuclear power
generation by 2025, renewable capacity expansion cannot keep
pace with growing demand, leading to increased coal-fired
generation.

In Korea, coal demand for power generation increased 6.3% in
2021 due to stronger demand and rising LNG prices. Similar to
Japan, Korean utilities procure liquefied natural gas through longterm contracts, protecting the country from record-high spot prices
this year. However, opportunity costs are high and – at the margin –coal remains cost-competitive with gas. To substitute expensivegas-fired generation, Korea suspended generation caps andtemporary shutdowns for coal power plants in 2022. However, coalconsumption for power generation is expected to remainunchanged (-0.2%) as some old coal-fired units were closed in
2021, and nuclear and renewable power generation rose. The
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IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In Australia, coal consumption is forecast to contract as growth inrenewable energy outpaces electricity demand. The Australian
power plant fleet is in decline in the medium term. The largest coal
power plant, the 2.9 GW Eraring power station, is expected to closein mid-2025, seven years ahead of schedule.

DemandCoal 2022

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0
Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25

0

USD/t

USD/MWh

Korean marginal coal- and gas-fired power generation costs,
2020-2025

Coal (left axis)
CCGT (left axis)
Gas JCC-indexed (right axis)
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 30

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: JCC = Japan Crude Cocktail. CCGT net efficiency: 40-55%. Coal net efficiency:
35-46%.
Sources: IEA estimates and Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

DemandCoal 2022

Coal demand in Southeast Asia on the rise
construction of coal plants overseas several projects have beencancelled. However, this is not expected to affect coal consumption
through 2025.

Coal consumption in Southeast Asia totalled 361 Mt in 2021, up
1.5% from the previous year. The largest coal consumers in theregion are Indonesia (41%) and Viet Nam (26%), followed by
Thailand (9%), Malaysia (9%) and the Philippines (9%).

Indonesia’s coal demand amounted to 148 Mt in 2021 and will growby ~9% in 2022. In January 2022, high prices and heavy rainfalls
threatened domestic coal supplies and Indonesian utilities ran low
on supplies as miners focused on exporting. In response, thegovernment took an unprecedented step to ban all coal exports fora month to ensure supplies to domestic power plants. Until 2025,
we expect Indonesia’s coal consumption to grow by ~4.7%
annually, led by the expansion of the country’s coal power plant
fleet by up to 10 GW.

For 2022, we expect coal consumption to rise by 3.8% in Southeast
Asia, largely driven by strong growth in Indonesia. From 2022 to2025, we expect coal consumption to grow by ~4% per year on
average, pushing total consumption to 422 Mt. The forecast isbased on a strong economic outlook for the region, some coal
power projects under development (total capacity of 18 GW, ofwhich 7.3 GW was approved in 2021), and Indonesia’s abundantcoal supply.

PAGE | 31

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Viet Nam recorded consumption of 84 Mt thermal coal and 9 Mt met
coal in 2021. In the first half of 2022, the high availability ofhydropower and curtailment due to supply shortages of domestic
coal reduced the share of coal-fired generation to 40% of the overall
electricity generation. The total electricity generation increased
year-on-year by about 4.5%. For the second half of 2022, further
growth in electricity demand is expected following a heatwave that
boosted demand for cooling in northern parts of the country coupledwith stronger economic growth of 7.7% in 2022. In view of highrenewable and hydropower generation, we expect Viet Nam’s coalconsumption to decline by 2.1 Mt to ~91 Mt.

Most of Southeast Asia’s coal-fired power plant projects are inIndonesia and Viet Nam. This year, Adaro Energy started
operations at the new 2 GW Batang coal power plant and Bukit
Asam at its 1.32 GW Sumel 8 in Indonesia, and the 1.2 GW Ngho
Son 2 power plant commenced operation in Viet Nam. Bothgovernments announced plans to stop the development of new
coal-fired power generation, as of 2023 for Indonesia and in thelonger term for Viet Nam. The importance of coal-fired generation,
however, is about to increase in the foreseeable future as there arestill several coal-fired power plants under construction in Indonesia,
and in Viet Nam the 1.2 GW Vung Ang 2 is expected to begin
generation in 2025. After China’s commitment to stop theDemandCoal 2022

The Philippines’ coal demand in 2022 is expected to rise to about
35 Mt, up from around 33 Mt. Coal-fired generation makes up for
57% of the country’s electricity production and 91% of overall coaldemand. About 70% of the coal consumed is imported fromIndonesia. Although the Philippines have stopped building new coal
power plants, coal demand is expected to increase to about 39 Mt
until 2025, mainly driven by rising power consumption.
Malaysian coal demand is expected to remain constant in 2022 at
about 33 Mt. Demand is forecast to increase to around 35 Mt by2025, led by rising electricity demand and higher load factors, eventhough the state-owned TNB’s announced it plans to close 1.4 GW
of coal capacity before 2025.

50

500

Mt

40

400

30

300

20

200

10

100

0

0

- 10
2021

2022

Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand

2025

2021

2022

2022-25

Viet Nam
Philippines
Other Southeast Asia
IEA. CC BY 4.0.
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IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Mt

Southeast Asia change in coal consumption by country,2021-2025

DemandCoal 2022

Coal consumption in South Asia declines in 2022 on higher prices
Tight supply and high prices in international coal markets are hitting
emerging economies like Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka
particularly hard. At current high prices, they cannot afford to buy
enough energy, including coal, which is leading to electricity
rationing.

by 2025. In December 2020, Pakistan’s prime minister announced
that the country would have “no new coal-fired power”. While we
expect this decision will not affect projects already underconstruction, others in the planning stage with a total capacity of
3 GW are unlikely to be realised.

Pakistan’s coal consumption declined 7% to 23 Mt in 2021 inresponse to high coal prices. In 2022, Pakistan’s coal use isforecast to fall further (-3.8 Mt) because the country cannot afford
large seaborne imports so it must depend on supply from domestic
coal mines and land-based imports from Afghanistan. Additionally,
the heavier-than-usual monsoon season brought severe flooding in
June, covering more than one-third of the country's land area andexacerbating the economic crisis. From January to September,coal-fired power generation fell 7%, while coal-intensive cement
production declined by 17%. By 2025, Pakistan’s coal consumption
is projected to increase by 30% to 25 Mt, fuelled by expectedeconomic growth of 5% per year, the commissioning of new coalfired power plants and more use of existing ones. The country has
five coal power plants under construction but we assume that only
the first unit of Jamshoro (660 MW) and an additional 1 650 MW
running on domestic lignite (Sindh province) will be commissioned

Coal consumption in Bangladesh declined by 0.8 Mt to 3.8 Mt in
2021 but is expected to grow by 2.8 Mt in 2022. The sharp growthin coal consumption is due to the commissioning of the two 660 MW
blocks of the Payra power station in March and December 2021,
respectively. At least six other coal-fired power projects are
expected to go ahead, three of which, with a total capacity of
2.8 GW, are anticipated to be completed soon. The future of theseventh project, the 1.2 GW in Marabari, is unclear following
Japanese trading house Sumitomo’s decision to pull out of the
project in February after pledging not to invest in new coal-related
businesses. We expect Bangladesh’s coal power fleet to increase
to ~5 GW by 2025, boosting the country’s coal demand to 19 Mt.

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Sri Lanka’s coal demand will decrease slightly this year as thecountry struggles with high costs amid a severe domestic economiccrisis resulting in a GDP contraction of 7%. For 2025, coal demandis forecast to return to former levels of 2.2 Mt.

DemandCoal 2022

African coal consumption likely to remain stable near 2021 levels over forecast period
levels, forcing a return to stage six of load-shedding. So far, 2022
has been the worst year of load-shedding on record. From January
to November, there have been at least 155 days of reported loadshedding. The country has ~46 GW of generation capacity,
sufficient to meet a peak demand of just ~32 GW. However, lessthan 60% of the capacity is available, leading to a gap of ~6 GW.

Total coal demand on the African continent declined by 3.1% to
189 Mt in 2021 amid the economic fallout from the Covid-19
pandemic. Due to continued weak demand from South Africa, thecontinent’s coal demand is forecast to decrease for the third year insuccession to 180 Mt (-9 Mt). Until 2025, we expect consumption torebound to 2021 levels (~190 Mt), which is well below the prepandemic level of 2019.

In response to the current situation, the government announced aplan to attract more private investments in new generation
capacities, raise Eskom’s maintenance budget and start electricity
imports from Botswana and Zambia. We project South Africa’s coalconsumption to increase by 5.3% from 2022 to 2025 as the coal
power plant fleet’s performance increases. A proposed large-scale
3.3 GW coal-fired power plant project in the Musina-Makhado
energy and metallurgical special economic zone has beencancelled and replaced with renewable sources.

South Africa accounts for about 88% of coal consumption in Africa
and was behind the continent’s demand decline from 2020 to 2022.
In 2022, South African coal consumption is expected to fall from
166 Mt to 157 Mt (-5.5%), in part reflecting the country’s very slow
economic recovery from the pandemic shock. Economic growth isexpected to ease to 1.6% this year, after 4.9% last year and apandemic-induced slump of 6.3% in 2020. Despite efforts toincrease the reliability of the power system, rationing persists inSouth Africa. In June, a strike at South Africa’s state-owned utility
Eskom disrupted the operation and maintenance of the powersystem. Eskom announced stage six of load-shedding at the end ofJune, which means demand cuts of 6 GW from the grid. The
situation eased after the strike ended in July but delayed
maintenance and unplanned outages led to continuing loadshedding. In September, the rolling blackouts reached record

PAGE | 34

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The funding of other coal power projects in African countries, such
as Zimbabwe, Botswana, Tanzania and Mozambique, is also in thebalance. In our forecast, we do not expect any new coal-fired power
plants to be commissioned in Africa by 2025.

Supply

Coal 2022

PAGE | 35

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

SupplySupply

Coal 2022

Global coal supply hits all-time high in 2022 but stalls by 2025
Despite deteriorating economic prospects, global coal supply is
forecast to reach a new high in 2022 as demand for coal in power
generation increases in response to tight gas markets and highprices. China and India continue to boost their coal production to
overcome supply shortages, more than offsetting the decline in
Russian production due to Western sanctions imposed in theaftermath of the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

Global coal production, 2000-2025

10 000

Mt

Rest of World

Global coal production is forecast to rise by 5.4% to 8 318 Mt in
2022, a new all-time-high and well above the record set in 2019.
This follows an increase of 3.9% to 7 888 Mt in 2021 as economies
recovered from the pandemic-induced demand drop in 2020. In
absolute terms, 2021 growth was mainly driven by production
increases of 153 Mt in China (4%) and 48 Mt in India (~6%). Steamcoal and lignite accounted for 98% of the 295 Mt increase andaround 86% of total production.

8 000

Russia6 000

United States

4 000

Australia

2 000

Indonesia

0
2000

India
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025 China
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Mt

Changes in global coal production, 2021-2025

The rebound growth trajectory for global coal production is
expected to reach a peak in 2023, just slightly above the 2022 level.
By 2025, we estimate coal production will fall to 8 221 Mt, backbelow 2022 levels. The lower levels largely reflect expectations that
China’s coal production will plateau in the coming years, and thecontinuing growth in India’s coal production (+128 Mt) will be offset
by large declines in other regions, such as the United States(- 92 Mt), the European Union (-68 Mt), Indonesia (-40 Mt) andRussia (-13 Mt).

600
500
400
300
200
100
0
- 100
- 200
- 300

Rest of world
RussiaEuropean
Union
United States
Australia
Indonesia
2021

2022

2022-2025

India

PAGE | 36

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Supply

Coal 2022

China boosted its coal production in the face of shortages in H2 2021
China’s coal production grew 4% in 2021, reaching a new high of
3 942 Mt. Nevertheless, supply failed to keep pace with strong
demand from both power generation and non-power industries,
resulting in energy shortages in the second half of the year. In
response, the government and regional authorities focused on
boosting domestic coal production by authorising capacity
expansions at existing mines or restarting closed operations. For
example, the National Development and Reform Commission(NDRC) eased conditions for mine extensions taking place before
April 2022. In Inner Mongolia, authorities approved the restart of
38 disused opencast mines with a capacity of 66.7 Mtpa.
Meanwhile, the province of Shanxi suspended the annual
production cap and ordered all mines to increase coal output
instead. The resulting growth in coal production more than offsets
all losses caused by pandemic containment measures, new safety
and environmental regulations or natural disasters like floodings in
Shanxi in October 2021.

than 80% of the country’s thermal coal output: Inner Mongolia(33%), Shaanxi (23%), Shanxi (20%) and Xinjiang (6%). In all four
provinces, thermal coal mining increased in 2021. The mostsignificant increase happened in Inner Mongolia (+8%), followed by
Shanxi (+7%), Shaanxi (+6%) and Xinjiang (+6%). Thermal coalproduction in other regions fell 6%, mainly due to declining output
from small and medium-sized mines. In total, China’s thermal coalproduction grew 4.6% in 2021.
China’s met coal production rose by 1.4% in 2021. The mostimportant met coal mining region is Shanxi, which accounts for halfof the country’s total production. Other important mining regions are
Anhui (8%), Shandong (7%) and Henan (7%) in the east, Guizhou(4%) in the south, and Inner Mongolia (4%) and Heilongjiang (4%)
in the north. Shanxi’s met coal production increased 1.8% in 2021.
As with thermal coal, met coal production is undergoing a shift fromsmall, decentralised mines to large, automated ones.

About 83% of China’s coal production is thermal coal, with theremaining from met coal. 4 The bulk of China’s thermal coalproduction is concentrated in just four regions, accounting for more

4

PAGE | 37

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Although China also produces anthracite and lignite, available data do not report these categories
separately.

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Coal 2022

China’s major coal-producing provinces substantially ramped up coal output in 2021
Change in metallurgical coal production in China’s major
producing regions by mine size, 2020-2021

100

Mt

75

10
8

50

6
4

25

2

0

0
-2

- 25
- 50

12

-4
Inner
Mongolia

Shanxi

Large (>6.9 Mtpa)

Shaanxi

Xinjiang

Medium (2.3-6.9 Mtpa)-6

OthersSmall (<2.3 Mtpa)

Shanxi

Large (>6.9 Mtpa)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

South

East

North

Medium (2.3-6.9 Mtpa)

OthersSmall (<2.3 Mtpa)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: Adapted from CRU (2022), Thermal Cost Model (database).

Source: Adapted from CRU (2022), Metallurgical Cost Model (database).

PAGE | 38

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Mt

Change in thermal coal production in China’s major producing
regions by mine size, 2020-2021

Supply

Coal 2022

China’s coal production on track to post another record high in 2022
pandemic containment measures forcing truck drivers to be
regularly tested and then wait for results.

We forecast China’s coal production to expand by 8% to 4 237 Mt in
2022, reaching a new high and surpassing the 14th Five-YearPlan’s target of 4 100 Mt by 2025. In China’s four major coalproducing provinces, output rose sharply in the first nine months of2022. The higher production levels are part of the government’splans to raise domestic supply, with new capacity approved in 2021
of ~300 Mtpa. The increase in coal production could have beeneven higher had strict pandemic containment measures nothampered operations and logistics. Increased safety inspections
also weighed on coal output.

Shanxi, the largest coal mining region in China, increased
production by 10% in the first nine months of the year and is aiming
for full-year output of 1 300 Mt. This makes Shanxi a bigger coalproducer than any country (outside China). Shanxi’s coal production
might have been even somewhat higher had it not been for several
accidents, some of which were fatal. In response, the Shanxi
provincial government ordered the suspension of operations and amulti-day inspection at a total of eight coal mines. The largest,
Tashan, has a capacity of 25 Mtpa. The other mines have a total
capacity of about 7.2 Mtpa.

With domestic coal production rapidly growing, the existing rail
capacity has become a bottleneck for transporting coal to domestic
ports and to utilities. While the major coal mining regions are mainly
located in the north and centre of the country, significant demand isin the industrial centres along the east coast, such as Guangdongor the Shanghai area. As demand for coal increases and the shareof imports at the coastal power plants decreases, more coal has tobe transported to the east via rail and barge. To cope with the
problem, new storage sites are under construction and the China
State Railway Group has increased the number of coal trains on
existing routes. However, producers and power plants are having
difficulties securing sufficient rail cars for coal supplied under longterm contracts. Truck capacity is also scarce, worsened by

The second-largest coal region, Inner Mongolia, produced 124 Mt(+19%) more coal between January and September than in theprevious year. This was the largest absolute increase among thecoal-producing provinces.

PAGE | 39

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In Shaanxi province, coal production rose by 8% or 34 Mt. In lateAugust, operations were hampered when a Covid-19 outbreakforced the local government to suspend more than 90% of mining
capacity in Shenmu county, a key thermal coal-producing region in
Shaanxi province. At least 60 of the 81 private coal mines with acapacity of ~80 Mtpa were shut down. In 2021, the Shenmu county
produced ~310 Mt. To curb coal production, the local government of
Yulin, another large coal-producing city in Shaanxi, decided to stopSupply

Coal 2022

Year-on-year change in China’s coal production by region,
January to September, 2020-2021
Mt

using coal sales licences. The licences, which limit the supply ofcoal, were introduced in 2006 with the aim of curbing illegal mining
activities, producing beyond the licensed capacity and improving
the safety of coal mining and transportation. In relative terms, coalproduction increased the most in Xinjian province (+32%/68 Mtpa).
By mid-September, 13 new mines had been added in the province
with a total capacity of 69 Mtpa, which could be further expanded.

Mt

China’s coal production by month, 2016-2022
450

160

40%

120

30%

80

20%

40

10%

400
350

0

300
250

Shanxi

Inner
Mongolia

Shaanxi

Absolute change (left axis)

200

Xinjiang

Others0%

Relative change (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

150

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (2021), Statistical Database.

100
50
0

Jan

Mar

May

Range 2016-2020

Jul
2021

Sep

Nov
2022
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 40

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (2021), Statistical Database.

Supply

Coal 2022

China’s coal provinces are on track to exceed their 2025 production targets
Planned and realised changes in China’s mining capacity byregion, 2020-2025

The 14th Five-Year Plan sets out China's economic development
goals for the 2021 to 2025 period. The plan aims to balance theenvironment, energy security and affordability in its development
strategies. Coal is seen as an irreplaceable source of energy for
years to come, although China has committed to peaking its carbon
emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

Shanxi
Inner Mongolia
Shaanxi

China has targeted a 1% growth rate in its annual coal consumption
projections, to 4 200 Mt in 2025. At the same time, coal production
is set to increase to 4 100 Mt, with the remainder to be covered byimports. However, China will most likely surpass this goal in 2022.
We expect China’s coal production to grow slower and peak next
year before starting to decline slightly from 2024 on. As a result,
China’s 2025 coal production would be very close to the 2022 levelof ~4 237 Mt.

Xinjiang
Guizhou
Anhui
Henan
Shandong
Ningxia- 50

Following the national plan, the provinces published their five-yearplans, with most also targeting higher coal production. Of the ninelargest coal-producing provinces, only Shanxi and Anhui intend to
reduce their coal production. However, Shanxi has since revised its
initial target of 1 000 Mt and is now aiming for production of
1 300 Mt in 2022. From January to September 2022, Shanxi’s coal
output increased by 179 Mt compared to the same period in 2020.
Three major coal-producing regions, Inner Mongolia (47%), Shaanxi(100%) and Xinjian (66%), have already achieved their targets to alarge extent.

0

50

100

Production change 2020-2022

150

200
Mtpa

250

300

2025 target
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 41

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: The 2022 value represents the difference in coal production during the first ninemonths of 2020 and 2022.
Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China (2022), Statistical Database, andProvincial 14th Five-Year-Plans.

Supply

Coal 2022

India pushes domestic production to reinforce its security of supply
scale of captive and commercial mining, while still comparatively
small, is expected to increase quickly. In the first half of 2022, coal
output of these mines jumped by more than 50% compared to
2021.

India’s ongoing efforts to improve energy security and to reduce
import dependency led to substantial increases in domestic
production in both 2021 and 2022. India’s coal production rose
6.3% to 805 Mt year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2021 and by a stronger 11%
to 893 Mt this year.

India’s monthly coal production, 2016-2022
Mt

In recent years India has improved coal availability significantly in abid to end historical shortages. Nevertheless, despite higher coalproduction, the country again faced significant coal shortages whenseveral factors coincided in August 2021. Against the backdrop ofsurging demand due to the post-pandemic economic recovery,
supplies were disrupted by heavy monsoons in major mining
regions and high prices of imported coal led to liquidity problems
resulting in insufficient stock build-up at power plants relying onimports. All combined created an acute supply shortage.

120
100
80
60
40
20

India’s coal sector can be divided into three categories: public,
captive, and commercial mining. Three state-owned coal mining
companies - Coal India Ltd (CIL), Singareni Collieries Company Ltd(SCCL) and NLC - conduct public mining. CIL, the largest coalmining company in the world, accounted for ~77% of the country’s
production in 2021, and SCCL, the second-largest producer inIndia, for another 8%.

0

Jan

Mar
May
Jul
Range 2016-2020

Sep
2021

Nov
2022
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: IEA based on McCloskey (2022). McCloskey Coal, Metals and Mining Service

PAGE | 42

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Captive blocks are industry-owned mines to meet companies’ selfconsumption, while commercial coal blocks are auctioned by thegovernment to private mining firms for commercial coal sale. The

Supply

Coal 2022

The government’s intentions to reduce import dependency willcontinue to drive coal production growth over our 2022-25 forecast
period. Coal-fired generation is India’s most important source ofelectricity, providing about 73% of electricity demand. To achieve
production growth, the Indian government has issued a blend ofpush and pull measures in recent years. On the one side, thegovernment is penalising underperforming power plants andstipulating fixed coal inventory levels at power plants. On the otherside, the government pushes the supply up. It permits captive
mines to sell up to 50% of their production and to blend up to 30%
of imported coal. Moreover, it dedicates railway capacities to coaltransport, grants additional production increases to approved
expansion projects, and temporarily prioritises thermal coal accessfor power generation over non-power uses. Addressing increased
import prices, the Indian government implemented directives toimprove the liquidity of power plant owners.

1 000 Mt in 2025, totalling 1 021 Mt. Almost all of the coalproduction will be thermal coal, mainly for power generation. The
state-owned company CIL is expected to contribute substantially tooverall domestic production.

Additionally, the Indian government is about to issue a coal logistics
policy. It targets a multimodal coal infrastructure that keeps up with
the increasing coal demand and the domestic production growth
while reducing transportation costs. Funded by CIL, railway projects
in India’s mining belt will be implemented to improve supply chainsby enhancing the coal evacuation from mines. The planned projects
are expected to increase the coal evacuation capacity of a central
railway line to about 125 Mtpa.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Mt

India’s annual domestic coal production by company, 2020-2025
1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0

2020

2021
CIL SCCL

2022
Other

2025

Sources: McCloskey (2022), IEA estimates.

PAGE | 43

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

India’s domestic supply is forecast to continue to grow until andbeyond 2025 in line with the steady increase in demand while also
striving to reduce import dependency. Total production will surpass

Supply

Coal 2022

Commercial mines – another important pillar of coal supply for India
additional commercial mines are about to be developed based on
the coal mine tender. At this stage, however, it is difficult to assess
how fast and how strong the ramp-up of production fromcommercial mines will be by 2025 and beyond. Vedanta hasreported that it expects to bring into operation Odisha’s Radhikapur(West), a block awarded in November 2020 in the first auction,
during the fiscal year 2022-23.

Commercial mining is the third pillar of the strategy of thegovernment to boost India’s domestic coal production. A special
provision to reform the Mining Act in 2015 paved the way for theprivate sector to produce coal to be sold in the free market out of
the monopoly of Coal India. In 2020 the first blocks for commercial
mining were auctioned and awarded in November of that year.
Since then the Indian government has held several rounds ofauctions allocating an estimated cumulated capacity of 156 Mtpa
thermal coal and 6 Mtpa coking coal for commercial mining. On 3
November 2022, the Ministry of Coal launched the 6th round ofcommercial mine auctions, including 141 coal mines, of which 71
are new mines, 62 are ones not awarded in previous auctions, andeight are ones for which single bids were received in the 5th
auction.

Mtpa

Tendered Capacity of India’s commercial mine auctions
400
300
200
100

In the fiscal year 2021-22, captive mines increased their production
by ~30% to a total of ~90 Mt. By the end of the fiscal year 2022-23(March 2023), a total of 48 captive and commercial mines will be inoperation, with 11 new mines expected to come on stream. Five of
these are located in Jharkhand and will be dedicated to power
production by companies such as NTPC, Damodar Valley
Corporation, and the Punjab Electricity Board, and to steel
production by JSW steel and Araanya. For the ongoing fiscal year,
captive and commercial mines are expected to raise theirproduction considerably to about 140 Mt. All in all, numerous

0

1st
2nd
3rd
Auction Auction Auction
Allocated thermal
Not-allocated

4th
5th
6th
Auction Auction Auction
Allocated metallurgical
Tendered
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 44

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

Supply

Coal 2022

Australia’s production constrained by several factors
Until 2025, Australia’s met coal production is forecast to expand by
8% in total as new mines and expansions of existing ones arecommissioned and constraining factors such as skilled labour
shortages and weather conditions are overcome. However, thermal
coal production will not return to the 2021 level, but will slowly andsteadily decline. While pressure from legal disputes and regulators,
as well as insurance conditions, have apparently eased during thecurrent energy crisis, we do not expect financing conditions forthermal coal mining to improve.

In 2021, Australia’s coal production declined marginally year-onyear, to about 470 Mt, due to adverse weather conditions caused by
the La Nina weather phenomenon, the impact of the pandemic on
the labour force and skill shortages hindered miners fromexpanding production and fully benefiting from rising prices. An
increase in thermal coal output of about 10 Mt to 300 Mt was offset
by a decline in coking coal production (-7%/ -13 Mt). Thermal coalproduction accounted for ~64% of Australia’s coal output.
In 2022, Australia’s coal production is expected to decline by 5.2%
to 446 Mt, primarily due to weather conditions and the impact of thepandemic on labour supply, which continues to weigh on the
country’s coal industry. Bringing severe rainfalls, La Nina eventsaffect coal production, railing and shipping in New South Wales andQueensland. After the last event ended in June 2022, the Australia
Bureau of Meteorology declared another La Nina event in
September, the third in a row. Australian meteorologists forecast
that it will last until early 2023, peaking between September andNovember this year. Resulting flooding frequently causes
production downtimes and damage to infrastructure.

20

Mt

Mt

Coal production in Australia by state, 2021-20250

The 0.9% decline in coking coal production is partly due to someminers switching to thermal coal by selling PCI and semi-soft coalon the thermal coal market or focusing on thermal coal seams intheir mines.

400
300
200

- 20
- 40

500

100
2021

2022

20232025

0
2021

2022

2025

Met coal for export

Western Australia

Thermal coal for export

New South Wales

Thermal coal fordomestic consumption

Queensland
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 45

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: Adapted from CRU (2022), Coal Cost Model (database).

Supply

Coal 2022

Growth of Indonesian coal production underpinned by exports
producer Vinacomin. We expect Viet Nam’s coal production to growcontinuously to ~57 Mt by 2025.

Indonesia’s coal production grew slightly to 569 Mt (+0.6%) in 2021
after a pandemic-induced slump in 2020. The La Nina event
brought heavy rainfall to the major coal mining regions ofKalimantan and Sumatra. Furthermore, low heavy-equipment
availability hampered the ramping up of coal production.

Changes in and total coal production in Indonesia, 2021-2025

In 2022, the constraining factors on Indonesia’s coal production
remained largely the same: wet weather conditions, in particular in
the Kalimantan region, infrastructural bottlenecks as well as a lackof mining equipment. Furthermore, sharply increased royalties andoperational costs, coupled with the government's drive to channel
more coal to the domestic market, are reducing incentives,
especially for small miners to open or expand their coal production.
Despite the limiting factors, for the full year, Indonesian coalproduction is forecast to expand by 9% to 622 Mt, driven byincreased demand for Indonesian coal from abroad.

Mt

Mt

60
40
20
0
- 20
- 40
- 60
- 80

2021

2022

20232025

Met coal for export

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2021

2022

2025

Total

Thermal coal for export
Thermal coal fordomestic consumption

In the coming years, however, we expect Indonesian coalproduction to decline by 2.2% annually on average as the importdemand of the top export destinations, China and India, declines.
Lower production will be partly offset by higher domestic coalconsumption in the power sector. In total, we forecast Indonesia’s
production to decrease to 582 Mt by 2025.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 46

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Viet Nam’s coal production grew by 8 Mt to 51 Mt in 2021, reducing
its dependency on coal imports. In 2022, domestic production is
forecast to rise further, mainly driven by the state-controlled coalSupply

Coal 2022

Bans and sanctions weight on Russia’s coal production
Eurasia’s coal production rose 4.7% to 564 Mt in 2021. The largest
producer in the region is Russia, with a total production of 437 Mt(+9%), followed by Kazakhstan at a steady 103 Mt.

Russian change in coal production by region and in total,

The region’s coal production in 2022 and the near-term outlook arestrongly affected by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the related
geopolitical tensions and economic sanctions. In 2022, Eurasia’scoal production is expected to fall 4.6%, primarily driven by a 7.4%
decline in Russia’s coal production. The EU ban on Russian coalallowed companies to buy coal from Russia until April and to importit by 10 August. Since then, Russian producers who were focusedon the European markets have encountered problems redirecting
their supplies to other customers, as railway capacity to the east islimited. The Kuzbass region recorded a 9%-slump y-o-y fromJanuary to August 2022. Led by reduced demand from Japan andChinese Taipei, exports to Asia also dropped in the first half of
2022.

40
30
20
10
0
- 10
- 20
- 30
- 40

2021-2025
Mt

Mt

500
400
300
200
100

2021
Central2022
East20232025
West

0

2021

2022

2025

Total
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: Adapted from CRU (2022), Coal Cost Model (database).

PAGE | 47

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Kazakhstan’s coal production will rise to 108 Mt (+4.5%) in 2022
due to higher demand from Europe, especially Poland, to replace
Russian coal. We expect Kazakh coal supply to expand by 3% to111 Mt by 2025.

According to the country’s economy ministry, Russia’s coalproduction is expected to decline in 2023 by another 9% before
production resumes growth again in 2024. Even though we believethat inner-Russian infrastructural bottlenecks will be resolved by
2025, we expect the country’s coal production to fall by 3% in total
until 2025 as import demand from China and India eases.

Supply

Coal 2022

American coal producers struggle to ramp up coal production despite high coal prices
for US coal supply sees an average annual decline of 6.1% until
2025, when production reaches 443 Mt.

After years of decline and a 24% slump in coal output in 2020, US
coal production recovered somewhat, with an 8% increase to524 Mt in 2021, fuelled by strong domestic demand amid high gas
prices and strong growth in GDP (+5.9%) and electricity
consumption (+2.6%).

US coal production by region, 2008-2025
Mt

1 200

In 2022, coal production is expected to increase by a smaller 2%,
despite high export coal prices, steep gas prices and low
inventories. Therefore, the United States is not a swing supplier
anymore. While coal production in the Western region will increase(+6%), output from the Appalachian region (-0.2%) and the Interior
region (-2.8%) will likely decline.

1 000

Coal producers in Central Appalachian are struggling to ramp up
production due to supply chain issues, investors refraining from thethermal coal mining business, and tight labour markets. Alpha
Metallurgical Resources, for example, stepped back from producing
thermal coal and refocused on metallurgical coal. Even though US
railroads are recovering from the aftermath of Covid-19 byaddressing their staffing shortages, thereby increasing rail volumes,
transport infrastructure remains bottlenecked for US coalproduction.

400

800
600

200
0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
Appalachia region

Interior region

Western region
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: IEA estimates based on US EIA Coal data (2022)

PAGE | 48

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In the coming years, we expect coal production to decline again as
domestic demand for thermal coal continues to contract, the lack ofinvestment persists and personnel shortages remain. Our forecast

Supply

Coal 2022

Mixed outlooks for Colombia and Canada
in 2021 to 6-7 Mt, profiting from a high willingness to pay on the
demand side. The shipments are increasingly directed through
Caribbean terminals such as Puerto Nuevo, Carbosan,
Barranquilla, and Puerto Brisa.

Canada’s coal production rose 4.8% to 47 Mt in 2021, with most of
the increase in met coal, which accounts for ~57% of the country’s
output. Canadian supply chains were affected by an 18-day strike ofnational rail workers in mid-2022 and another 3-week strike at theWestshore export terminals until mid-October. Despite theseobstacles, coal production is expected to rise by 3.6 Mt in 2022.
However, we forecast Canada’s coal production to decline to 45 Mt
by 2025 due to reduced thermal coal production in response toslower domestic demand.

By 2025, we expect Colombian coal production to decline by about
1 Mt due to reduced demand from key importers.

Mt

Coal production in Colombia by mine and company, 2020-2022

Colombian coal production increased by 5.7 Mt to 59 Mt in 2021,
powered by a rise in thermal coal output of 7 Mt, which offset asmall decline in metallurgical coal of about 1 Mt. In 2022, thecountry’s coal production is forecast to decrease by 3.7%, to around
57 Mt. Production from Colombia’s largest producer Drummond isrunning short of this year’s targets, which will more than offset asurge in output from smaller companies located in the innerprovinces in 2022. Due to heavy rainy seasons, Drummond had to
reduce its export projections for 2022. In addition, long-term
contracts hinder Drummond from profiting from high coal prices.
After increasing output by 11% in the first half of 2022, Cerrejon isfacing infrastructure issues at Puerto Bolivar and significant
production curtailments due to blockades and protests by
Indigenous people in the second half of the year. Companies frominner Colombia are expected to increase their exports from 1.5 Mt

60

Drummond International:
El Descanso
Pribbenow

40

Glencore:
Cerrejon
Prodeco:Calenturitas
La Jagua

20

0

Other
2020

2021

2022

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 49

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: Adapted from CRU (2022), Coal Cost Model (database).

Supply

Coal 2022

Increase in EU coal production is short-lived before returning to the downward trend
volumes in the Czech Republic will ease only slightly. By 2025, EU
coal production is forecast to fall 19% to about 289 Mt compared to2022 levels.

Coal production in the European Union rose by a robust ~10% in
2021, driven by the post-pandemic recovery and fuel switching fromhigher-priced natural gas. The two major coal-producing countries
are Germany (38%) and Poland (32%). Smaller coal producers
include the Czech Republic (9%), Bulgaria (9%), Romania (5%) andGreece (4%). About 83% of the EU’s coal production is lignite.

Mt

Changes in coal production in the European Union, 2021-2025

As a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent
energy crisis which has engulfed EU countries, we expect coalsupply and demand to remain at higher levels in the coming years.
Coal supply is forecast to increase by 7% to 357 Mt in 2022 and by
a further 2.7 Mt in 2023.

40
30
20
10
0

- 10
- 20

Germany, the largest lignite producer, increased coal production by
18% in 2021 in response to stronger demand. In the current energy
crisis, Germany is trying to expand its coal-fired power production to
replace gas use. Instead of shutting down 1.6 GW of lignite-fired
power plants by the end of 2022 as planned, the government has
issued a waiver to allow production to continue until March 2024. Bycontrast, production in Poland is expected to remain constrained.
Mines in Silesia need large investments and the mining company
Bogdanka has ongoing problems maintaining current steam coalproduction.

- 30
- 40
- 50

2021

2022
Met coal

2023
Steam coal

2024
Lignite2025

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 50

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

We expect the European Union to resume phasing out coal from2024, leading to a substantial production decline, particularly inlignite mining. Production of hard coal in Poland and smaller

TradeCoal 2022

South Africa’s coal production drops with falling consumption and rail issues
South Africa monthly coal production, 2016-2022
Mt

South Africa is the continent’s largest coal producer by far, with ashare of ~93%. In 2021, South African coal production dropped byalmost 8% to 229 Mt. The decline is expected to continue in 2022,
falling another 3.3% due to weak domestic consumption and poor
railway performance by operator Transnet Freight Rail. Key issues
were large-scale cable theft (in total 1 500 km of cable have beenstolen in the last five years), unavailability of locomotive and spareparts, vandalism and infrastructure bottlenecks.

30
25
20
15

Furthermore, derailments of wagons frequently block rail lines for
multiple days. For example, in June rail lines were down for fourdays due to a derailment. From January to September, Transnet’s
rail deliveries to Richards Bay Coal Terminal were more than 30%
below the historical average. In October, a ten-day workers' strike
put additional strain on Transnet's transport capacities. On top ofbottlenecks in export infrastructure, domestic demand has been
weak. The state-owned power utility Eskom continued toexperience frequent unplanned outages of coal-fired power plants,
leaving some mining companies with no choice but to close theiroperations for care and maintenance, despite record-high prices inoverseas markets. Furthermore, heavy rain negatively impacted thecountry’s coal production in the first quarter. For the coming years,
we expect some stabilisation of South Africa’s coal production but
no recovery. In 2025, we forecast total coal production of 217 Mt.

10
5
0

Jan

Jul
Mar
May
Range 2016-2020

Sep
2021

Nov
2022

IEA. All rights reserved.
Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 51

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

High international coal prices have incentivised other Southern
African countries, such as Mozambique, Botswana, Tanzania andZimbabwe, to increase their coal production. Mozambique, thecontinent’s second-largest coal producer, reported output of 11 Mt
in 2021. Despite strike action in May 2022 at an Indian-owned coalmine, we expect the country’s output to increase by 3.3 Mt in 2022
before beginning to decline to 11 Mt again by 2025.

TradeCoal 2022

PAGE | 52

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Botswana is expected to increase coal production in the coming
years as the government actively supports coal exploitation todiversify the country’s economy from diamond mining. With highcoal prices making exports economically viable, Botswana’s private
coal producer Minergy is operating at full capacity of 1.5 Mtpa in
2022. Shipments are made from Wavis Bay in Namibia and Maputo
in Mozambique, crossing Zimbabwe. Multiple new projects areunder development (see Chapter 5), some of which are expected tostart production by 2025. Coal production is forecast to rise from
3 Mt in 2022 to 4 Mt in 2025.

TradeCoal 2022

PAGE | 53

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Trade

TradeCoal 2022

Global trade rebounded on strong demand in 2021, but will decline through 2025
International coal trade started slowly recovering from the economic
fallout from Covid-19 in 2021, with volumes rising to 1 333 Mt for
the year 5, accounting for ~17% of global coal demand. However,while the trade of thermal coal (which includes lignite and someanthracite) increased by 1.6%, metallurgical (met) coal trading
volumes declined by 2.3%, reversing previous year’s developments.
The great majority of coal traded in 2021 (93%) is seaborne.

Despite a 5 Mt decline in exports, Australia remained the secondlargest exporter by weight at a total 370 Mt. China increased its
imports by around 7% to 338 Mt and remained the largest importer.
China drastically reduced imports from Australia due to a dispute
between the two countries’ governments, and instead raised
supplies from Indonesia and Russia. India’s coal imports fell about
6% to 207 Mt while Japan remained at about 173 Mt. The three
countries make up for 52% of all imports.

Traditionally, coal trade has been concentrated in the Pacific andAtlantic Basins, with South Africa and – to a lesser extent – Russia
linking the two. However, international coal trade patterns shifted inrecent years as Europe’s import demand declined and South
African exports moved to the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. In 2021,
however, surging natural gas prices reversed this development ascoal import demand in Europe rose. Imports by Germany (38 Mt)
surpassed Türkiye (36 Mt) again to make it the largest importer
outside of Asia Pacific, which accounted for 79% of global coal
imports.

In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to a complex reshuffle ofglobal coal trade. As a consequence of its aggression, wideranging international sanctions imposed on Russia, including thepayment, shipping and insurance of energy exports, disrupted
trade flows. In April, new purchases of Russian coal were bannedin the EU while exports from existing contracts were halted on
10 August onward. As a result, Russian coal prices plummeted
and international coal flows began to reroute. While Asian
countries, such as India and China, increased their imports from
Russia, countries complying with the ban have sought alternative
supplies. High coal prices have incentivised small coal producers

Indonesia increased its exports by ~7% to 436 Mt, holding on to itspole position as the world’s largest coal exporter by weight in 2021.

5

PAGE | 54

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

For various reasons, annual imports and exports do not match: for example, some exports
reported in December may be reported as imports in January. Trade volumes in this section referto exports.

TradeCoal 2022

such as Tanzania and Botswana to enter global coal markets. In
total, we expect coal trade in 2022 to reach 1 351 Mt.

PAGE | 55

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Through 2025, two fundamental developments will shape global
trade. First, countries, particularly in Europe, will adapt to andovercome the current energy crisis and return to their coal phaseout paths. Second, continued efforts to secure energy supplies by
China and India lead to higher domestic output and lower imports.
Overall, we expect the thermal coal trade to sharply decline, by
about 10% until 2025. By contrast, the metallurgical coal trade willcontinue to grow by ~6%.

TradeCoal 2022

Thermal coal trade declines but met coal trade increases through 2025
Metallurgical coal trade developments (exports by destination),2020-2025
1 200

12%

8%

800

8%

400

4%

400

4%

0

0%

0

0%

- 400

-4%

- 400

-4%

- 800

-8%

- 800

-8%

-12%

-1 20012%800-1 200

2020
2021
2022
Rest of World (left axis)
India

2023
2024
China

2025

2020
2021
2022
Rest of World (left axis)
India

Annual growth (right axis)

2023
2024
China

2025

-12%

Annual growth (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 56

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

1 200

Mt

Mt

Thermal coal trade developments (exports by destination),2020-2025

TradeCoal 2022

PAGE | 57

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Thermal Coal

TradeCoal 2022

Thermal coal trade recovered in 2021 from a steep decline in 2020
the European Union rose strongly to 61 Mt (+25%) due to high gas
prices.

After a Covid-19-induced decline, thermal coal trade rebounded to
1 025 Mt in 2021, led higher as the economic recovery gatheredpace and by rising gas prices. Approximately 94% of the trade wasseaborne.
The share of the international coal trade in global coal demanddecreased from about 16% to 15% as increasing imports were
outpaced by growing demand, which was mainly met by higher
domestic supply, particularly in China and India.
The Asia Pacific is the most important thermal coal trading region: it
was the origin of ~63% of all exports and the destination for about~82% of all imports in 2021. Indonesian thermal coal exports
accounted for ~42% of the global trade, raising its market sharefrom ~40% in 2020. Australia ranked second, with a market share of~19%, followed by Russia at 17%, South Africa at 6%, Colombia at
5% and the United States at 4%.
China remained the world's largest importer of thermal coal,increasing volumes by 16% to 284 Mt, followed by India and Japan.
In 2021, India’s thermal coal imports contracted 10% to about
141 Mt. This was partly due to higher domestic production andbuyers' reluctance to pay higher prices, leading to severe coalshortages in the second half of 2021. Japan’s imports decreased toabout 129 Mt. Thermal coal imports in Southeast Asia fell by 11 Mt
to 126 Mt, mainly driven by a sharp decline in Viet Nam. Imports by

PAGE | 58

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Despite high coal prices, not all exporting countries were able toexpand their exports. While Indonesia (+27 Mt) and theUnited States (+12 Mt) significantly raised volumes, Colombian(- 16 Mt) and South African (-10 Mt) exports declined sharply.
Exports from Russia remained at the 2020 level. Indonesia
increased its volumes to 432 Mt (+7%), returning to a growthtrajectory, which was temporarily interrupted due to lower demand
from India in 2020. By contrast, the rise in US exports may prove tobe short-lived as higher exports came at the expense of fallingstocks. The decline in Australia’s exports is mainly attributed to thepandemic reducing labour availability and adverse weather
conditions from a strong La Nina phenomenon, which brought
heavy rainfalls and severe storms. Australia’s thermal coal exports
to China almost vanished due to an unofficial ban and wereredirected to other Asian countries, such as Japan, Korea, andIndia. In Colombia, adverse weather conditions hampered somemining operations. South African coal exports were reduced bydisruptions to the country’s rail infrastructure caused by extensive
cable theft, strikes and prolonged underinvestment.

TradeCoal 2022

Despite EU rebound, thermal coal trade remains concentrated in the Asia Pacific Basin
Main trade flows in the thermal coal market, 2021 (Mt)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 59

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: Map values are based on available export data and do not necessarily match import numbers

TradeCoal 2022

Thermal coal imports are expected to contract through 2025
around 20 Mt in June as buyers ramped up imports of sharply
discounted coal from Russia. Imports from Australia, therefore,
halved during the first three quarters compared to 2021. Japan isforecast to import 140 Mt in 2022, an increase of 11 Mt.

Imports of thermal coal are expected to expected to decreaseslightly to 1 035 Mt in 2022. Thermal coal imports account for 77%
of global coal imports and for 15% of overall thermal coal demand.
The stagnation in 2022 is largely due to lower imports by China,
which saw a significant ramp-up of domestic supply and a
deceleration of demand growth. Strong increases in thermal coal
imports from India and Europe offset the decrease.

Imports by Southeast Asia countinue declining to 124 Mt(- 3 Mt/- 2.2%) owing to Viet Nam’s weaker demand. EU imports,
instead, are expected to rise to about 82 Mt, up by 20 Mt or almost
33%, as the demand for coal-fired electricity generation surged inview of high gas prices. The European Union will, thus, end up
slightly below the level of Korea, which is forecast to increase
thermal thermal coal imports to 92 Mt (+2 Mt/~2.2%).

China’s thermal coal imports are forecast to decline by 44 Mt to240 Mt in 2022. The country remains the world’s largest importer ofthermal coal by far, but its share will edge lower from 28% to 23%.
In February, imports tumbled to 9 Mt, the lowest level sinceNovember 2020, but recovered thereafter and reached previous
year’s level in August. China significantly increased imports ofRussian coal in the second half of the year as steep price discounts
emerged following widespread Western bans and sanctions on the
country’s energy supplies. In August, China imported 6.6 Mt ofRussian coal, a sharp year-on-year increase of 2.2 Mt.
India is on course to increase thermal coal imports to 152 Mt, up by
11 Mt from 2021 levels, maintaining its position as the secondlargest thermal coal importer. Higher imports were supported by the
Indian government’s new mandates obligating operators of coalbased power plants to increase inventories by importing at least
10% of their coal demand and easing the restrictions on coal
blending. India’s imports also rose to a multiple-year monthly high of
PAGE | 60

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

From 2022, thermal coal imports are expected to steadily contract
to about 936 Mt in 2025, as China and India reduce theirdependency on imports and the European Union turns away fromcoal-fired power generation. The European Union posts the
sharpest decline in imports (-45 Mt/-56%), followed by India(- 27 Mt/-18%) and Japan (-24 Mt/-17%). By contrast, imports inparts of Asia are expected to rise. Excluding China, India, Japanand Korea, Asia’s thermal coal imports are forecast to grow by
29 Mt to 231 Mt by 2025. The increase is mainly led by Southeast
Asian countries such as Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
Until 2025, the share of thermal coal in overall coal imports is
expected to decline to about 74%. The majority of imports willremain seaborne (94%). Our forecast, however, face considerable

TradeCoal 2022

uncertainties in view of the ongoing energy crisis, the involved pricedevelopment and the unclear prospects of the ramp-up of India’s
domestic supply.

India’s monthly thermal coal imports, 2020-2022

40

Mt

40

35

35

30

30

25

25

20

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

0

0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020

2021

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2020

2022

2021

2022

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: IHS Markit (2022), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

Source: IHS Markit (2022), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

PAGE | 61

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Mt

China’s monthly thermal coal imports, 2020-2022

TradeCoal 2022

Thermal coal imports decline and uncertainties rise
Seaborne thermal coal trade changes by basin, 2021-2025

1 060

Mt

1 040

1 060
1 040

1 020

1 020

1 000

1 000

980

980

960

960

940

940

920

920

900

900

880

880

860

860

840

840

820

820

800

2021

Imports
Japan
European Union

2022

China
Korea
Rest of world

India
Other Asia

800

2025

2021

Trade volume2022
Atlantic

Pacific

Indian2025

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Note: The “Indian” category covers India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 62

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Mt

Global thermal coal import changes, 2021-2025

TradeCoal 2022

Sanctions on Russia’s coal exports have upended traditional tradeflows, especially to Europe, with shipments steadily moving
eastward to countries not party to international agreements. The
European Union’s ban on Russia’s coal exports was partially
implemented in April, although arrivals were allowed until
10 August. Russia’s coal exports to European countries started to
decline in March before plummeting when the ban took full effect inearly August.

will probably improve existing export infrastructure eastwards, Asian
import demand is forecast to decline mainly as a result of expanding
domestic production in India and China. As a consequence, we
expect Russia’s thermal coal exports to decline to ~150 Mt in 2025,
about 4.3% below the 2022 export volume.

During the first half of 2022, Russia’s exports of thermal coal werealready well below the level in 2021. When the EU ban came fully
into force in August, European countries halted imports and exports
increased to India, China, Türkiye and Korea, though the volumes
only partially offset the plunge in exports to the West. Exports to
Asia were constrained by limited rail capacity within Russia. In
addition, sharply higher freight rates for Russian exports andsecuring financing and insurance became increasingly difficult. In
total, we expect Russia’s thermal coal exports to decline by 10% to
157 Mt in 2022. The lower volumes, however, largely reflect the endof land-based exports to Poland and Ukraine, which cannot be
rerouted eastward in the short term due to railway bottlenecks.

Mt

Sanctions accelerate the shift of Russia’s exports eastward

Monthly y-o-y change of thermal coal imports from Russia bydestination, 2022
7
5
3
1
-1
-3
-5
-7

China
Chinese Taipei
Türkiye
Other

Russia’s thermal coal exports are expected to decline further in
2023, constrained by sanctions. At the same time, by the end of ourforecast period, we forecast Europe’s demand for coal imports to
decline as the shift to cleaner fuels gathers pace. Although Russia

Japan
India
European Union

Korea
Southeast Asia
United Kingdom
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 63

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: IHS Markit (2022), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

TradeCoal 2022

Indonesia proves to be the most flexible exporter of thermal coalSouth African producers continue to struggle with severe logisticalshortages. However, exports are forecast to recover from last year’s
decline to 69 Mt (+10%) in 2022. Benefiting from high market prices,other African countries, such as Tanzania and Botswana, entered
the export market. Thermal coal exports from African countries
other than South Africa are forecast to almost double to 11 Mt thisyear.

Indonesia’s thermal coal exports are expected to reach 469 Mt in
2022, 9% above previous year. The country’s coal exports accountfor about 7% of global thermal coal demand. Faced with a shortagein the domestic market, the Indonesian government imposed a ban
on coal exports in January 2022. The ban was imposed in response
to non-compliance by some coal producers with an obligation that
requires producers to provide at least 25% of their output to thedomestic market. Thermal coal exports in January plummeted toabout 13 Mt, down 66% from year-ago levels. As Western countries
refrained from buying Russian coal and China reduced its imports,
Indonesian exports shifted towards Europe. In 2022, Indonesia is
expected to post record-high exports to Europe. Compared to 2021,
thermal coal exports increased from 0.2 Mt to 2.3 Mt during the firstseven months of the year. Most of these shipments went to Italy,
the Netherlands, Poland and Switzerland. With an expected growthof 37 Mt in 2022, Indonesia is underscoring that it has the mostflexible capacity and is the only major exporter with capacity for aquick ramp-up, albeit mostly of low calorific value (CV) coal.

In the Americas, exports from the United States are expected toedge marginally lower, to 35 Mt (-2.8%). Colombia’s exports areprojected to fall for a second year in a row to 52 Mt (-3.7%), as
smaller domestic suppliers’ elevated exports do not offset theweather-related outages faced by Colombia’s largest exporter
Drummond.

In 2022, Australia’s thermal coal exports were heavily affected byinclement weather conditions and skilled labour shortages. Between
January and August, exports were 8% lower than a year earlier. In
view of the bad weather conditions experienced for much of theremainder of the year, we expect Australia’s thermal coal exports todecrease by 15 Mt to 184 Mt.
PAGE | 64

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After rising in 2021 and 2022, global thermal coal exports will
decrease continuously until 2025, to 936 Mt, which is 72 Mt lower
than in Covid-19 year 2020. The decline is driven by strong
increases in domestic supply in China and India, and lower coalfired power generation in the European Union. The share of thermal
coal trade in global demand, therefore, declines to about 13%. In
total, all suppliers’ exports decrease. While exports from Indonesia
decline by about 14%, Australia’s exports contract only marginally(- 0.5%). Russia’s exports fall by 4.3% compared to 2022 while
North American volumes decrease 28% by 2025.

TradeCoal 2022

All major supplier’s thermal coal exports decline through 2025
Global thermal coal export changes,
2021-2025

15

Mt

Mt

Indonesia’s monthly y-o-y thermal coal export changes bydestination, 2022
10

1 060
1 040

5

1 020

0

1 000

-5

980

- 10

960
940

- 15

920

- 20

900

- 25

880

- 30

860
840
820
800

China

Japan

Korea

Chinese Taipei

India

Southeast Asia

European Union

Other

2021

Total
South Africa

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

2022

Indonesia
Colombia

Australia
United States

2025

RussiaRest of world
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 65

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: IHS Markit (2022), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

TradeCoal 2022

PAGE | 66

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Metallurgical Coal

TradeCoal 2022

Met coal trade continues to be concentrated in Asia, with Australia leading exports
The largest relative increase in imports was in Southeast Asia(+42% /+7 Mt) due to strong industrial growth and a post-pandemic
economic recovery. The European Union also imported 7 Mt morethan in 2020, which is just a partial recovery since imports droppedby 9 Mt in 2020.

Although met coal just accounts for 23% of the global coal trade,international markets are much more important for met coal than forthermal coal. In 2021, imports of met coal provided ~29% (324 Mt)of global demand, of which about ~91% was seaborne.
Metallurgical coal exports declined for the second year in a row,falling to 308 Mt in 2021.

Due to an unofficial Chinese ban on Australian coal in response to
diplomatic tensions in 2021, Australia’s met coal exports to thecountry dropped dramatically, to 6 Mt from about 40 Mt in 2020.
Australia’s exports shifted to other Asian countries such as India(56 Mt/+21%), Japan (34 Mt/+13%), and Korea (24 Mt/+33%).
Exports to the European Union also increased, by about 32% to17 Mt.

The met coal market is highly concentrated on the export side.
Australia is by far the largest exporter with a market share of ~56%
in 2021. It was followed by the United States (13%), Russia (13%)
and Canada (9%). The four suppliers account for ~91% of all
metallurgical coal exports.
About 72% of the met coal was imported by the Asia Pacific regionin 2021. For years, China has been the largest importer of met coal,but volumes fell sharply (-25%) in 2021 due to a combination of
weak steel production, a ban on Australian coal imports and Covid19 restrictions to Mongolian exports. In turn, India moved to the top
position, accounting for about 20% (66 Mt) of global met coal
imports, followed by China (17%), and Japan (14%). The European
Union accounted for about 15%.

PAGE | 67

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China’s met coal imports from Mongolia also fell sharply, from 19 Mt
in 2020 to 11 Mt in 2021, as pandemic containment measures at theborder curbed the truck-based exports. China filled the gap byincreasing imports from Russia, the United States and Canada.

TradeCoal 2022

Australia dominates met coal trade
Main trade flows in the metallurgical coal market, 2021 (Mt)

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 68

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: Map values are based on available export data and do not necessarily match import numbers.

TradeCoal 2022

China and India lead the growth in met coal imports through 2025
economic growth to accelerate and steel production to increaseagain. However, the gains are partially offset by lower imports fromJapan (-4 Mt), Korea (-2 Mt) and the European Union (-3 Mt).

Global met coal imports are expected to decline 5.4% to 307 Mt in
2022, in large part because of the weaker economy, especially in
China. The struggling construction sector weighed heavily on
China’s steel and therefore met coal demand. We forecast China’s
met coal imports to decline by 17% this year to just 45 Mt. While
imports from Australia are still down due to the unofficial ban onAustralian coal, China increased its imports from Russia andMongolia. Mongolia completed a rail link to China this year, whichallows the country to boost its exports. Until then, coal wastransported by truck to China and pandemic containment measured
at the border curbed the trade capacity.

Mt

China’s monthly y-o-y met coal import changes by origin country,
2022
6

2

-2

Met coal imports of many other countries, such as Türkiye (-2 Mt),
Korea (-1 Mt) and Germany (-1 Mt), also declined as high energy
prices weighed on steel demand and production. Meanwhile, India’s
met coal imports are forecast to increase by ~4 Mt in 2022 as the
economy performs comparatively well.

-6

With the global economy expected to be back on a stronger growthtrajectory by 2025, we forecast a 6.4% rise (+20 Mt) in met coal
imports by then. The majority of the increase can be attributed to
India (+15 Mt), followed by China (+7 Mt), where we expect

Australia

RussiaMongolia

USA

CanadaOther
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 69

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: IHS Markit (2022), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

TradeCoal 2022

Despite the adverse weather conditions, Australia remains the leading met coal exporter
Mozambique (+0.3 Mt) are expected to continue the growth ofrecent years, while exports from the United States are forecast to
decline by 1.2 Mt by 2025.

Met coal exports are forecast to edge marginally lower in 2022, to
307 Mt (-0.4%). Exports from Australia, by far the world’s largest
met coal exporter, are expected to decline by ~3% (-5 Mt), as heavy
rainfalls disrupted coal mining and transportation, and, to a lesser
extent, as some semi-soft coking coal and PCI was sold into
thermal markets. Exports to India are set to fall the most, while
exports to Europe increased slightly. On a global scale, the lower
Australian exports are almost fully offset by increased volumes from
Mongolia (+6 Mt), which partially recovered from a steep 8 Mt drop
last year.

Mt

Australia’s monthly met coal export changes by destination,
2022
2
1
0

Among other exporting countries, we expect Canada (+2 Mt) andMozambique (+1.5 Mt) to expand their met coal exports in 2022,
while Russia’s exports decline (-5.9 Mt).

-1
-2

By 2025, the international met coal market is forecast to grow by
20 Mt to 326 Mt (+6.4%). Most of the increase is expected to comefrom Australia (+13 Mt) as weather conditions normalise, improvingmine and infrastructure performance. Conditions were poor for threeconsecutive years due to the La Nina weather phenomenon. In
addition, met coal projects under development are expected toadvance as they continue to find financing, insurance andgovernment support - much more so than thermal coal projects.

-3

China
India
Other

Japan
Southeast Asia

Korea
EU
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 70

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: IHS Markit (2022), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

Russia’s met coal exports are forecast to recover by 3.6 Mt as
eastbound infrastructure bottlenecks are removed. Met coal exports
from countries like Mongolia (+1.3 Mt), Canada (+1.5 Mt) andTradeCoal 2022

Growing met coal import demand met by Australia
Met coal export changes, 2021-2025

350

Mt

350

340

340

330

330

320

320

310

310

300

300

290

290

280

280

2021

2025

2022

China

India

Japan

Other Asia

EuropeRest of world

Korea

2021

2022

CanadaAustralia

RussiaMozambique

United States

Rest of world

2025

Mongolia

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 71

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Mt

Met coal import changes, 2021-2025

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

PAGE | 72

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Prices and costs

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

PAGE | 73

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PricesPrices and costs

Coal 2022

International coal prices reach record highs - thermal coal even traded above coking coalsoftened briefly in April. In May, European and Australian prices
picked up again. Australian high-grade thermal coal prices climbed
straight to the next record high of about USD 425/t in May as
flooding in the country hampered coal production and transportation
while utilities in Europe and Northeast Asia sought to obtainsupplies of non-Russian coal.

After falling to 14-year lows in 2020, thermal coal prices reboundedstrongly in 2021. Most international thermal price indices reachedall-time highs in October, reflecting a supply-demand imbalancefollowing the post-Covid-19 recovery, with coal and electricity
shortages in China and India, to name the most relevant cases.
Newcastle free on board (FOB) prices for high-grade thermal coalwith a calorific value of 6,000 kcal/kg and the API2 prices (index forcoal deliveries to Europe) reached an unprecedented USD 253/t
and USD 254/t, respectively. Prices eased again by the end of theyear as China's efforts to increase production bore fruit, and coalinventories returned to normal.

European import prices for thermal coal were lower than Australia’sin early summer but jumped in July when Russia reduced gas flows
to Europe. Rising fears Russia could cut off supplies altogether sent
natural gas prices in Europe soaring, prompting the region’s utilities
to buy more coal and driving prices above USD 400/t. The price ofAustralian high-CV thermal coal continued its upward trend,
reflecting strong demand from Japanese utilities reliant on this coaltype and the inability of Australian exporters to significantly increase
export volumes, partly due to adverse weather conditions. In
September, high-CV thermal coal prices reached USD 443/t, thefourth record within 12 months. In Europe, gas and coal prices
declined in September, as the continent appeared better prepared
for winter than expected - in spite of a steep reduction in Russian
gas pipeline deliveries to Europe. In November, European andAustralian prices reversed their downward trends with the start of
the heating season.

In January 2022, spot thermal coal prices were initially pushed up
when the Indonesian government decided to suspend exports
immediately in response to domestic supply shortages. At the endof January, Australian high-grade coal was trading at USD 261/t,
which was a new record at the time, while prices in Europe (API2)
traded lower at USD 206/t.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered prices worldwide to skyrocket
to another record high of USD 380/t in March 2022. European
thermal coal prices caught up again with Australian prices. By
contrast, South China’s import prices were less affected due tolower demand, enhanced domestic production and the opportunity
to buy discounted Russian coal. With the end of the heating season
in the Northern Hemisphere, global seaborne thermal coal prices
PAGE | 74

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South China’s thermal coal import prices trended downwards fromMarch to August, as higher domestic production and moderatePrices and costs

Coal 2022

PAGE | 75

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demand led to lower import volumes. In addition, Chinesecompanies, like those in various other importing countries, arebuying Russian coal at substantial discounts. In August and
September, import prices in South China increased slightly due tostronger import demand. A severe heatwave and drought hit thecountry, reducing hydropower generation and pushing up coaldemand for cooling.

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

International thermal coal prices climb from record to record, while prices in China diverge
USD/tMarker prices for different types of coal, 2020-2022
500

400

300

200

100

0
Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Newcastle FOB (6 000 kcal/kg)

Nov-21

Jan-22

ARA CIF (6 000 kcal/kg)

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22South China CFR (5 500 kcal/kg)
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 76

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: FOB = free on board. CIF = cost, insurance and freight. CFR = cost and freight.
Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

In a reversal of fortune, thermal coal has traded above coking coal since mid-2022
difficult to use met coal in power plants. The price spread between
the two types of coal has even widened further, highlighting theextraordinary situation in global coal markets. In early August, lowvolatile coking coal prices reached an interim low point below
USD 200/t before rising again to around USD 270/t, partly aconsequence of the met-to-thermal coal switch. Until November,prices were on a converging trajectory before the start of theheating season reversed this trend.

Coking coal prices surged in 2021, driven by global economic
growth and, particularly, by strong demand from China, where theeconomy grew 8.1%. In the fourth quarter, coking coal prices
reached record highs. For example, prices for Australian coking
coal with low volatiles peaked at about USD 400/t before declining
slightly as China’s economic growth slowed.
In January and February 2022, coking coal prices rose further
before the Russian invasion and associated uncertainty pushed
prices to unprecedented levels. In mid-March, a tonne of Australian
low-volatile coking coal reached a peak price of USD 658/t. Prices
then eased but remained at a very high level of more than
USD 500/t until the end of May.

USD/tMarker prices for different types of Australian coal, 2021-2022

Since June, prices have declined again due to fears of a global
recession and the weak performance of China’s steel industry. This
led to an unprecedented situation: coking coal prices fell below
high-CV thermal coal prices. Since coking coal has a higher energy
content than thermal coal, coking coal could – theoretically – beblended with lower-grade thermal coal to replace more expensive
high-grade thermal coal. To a small extent, met coal producers
have started to switch to thermal coal by selling met coal products
such as semi-soft coking coal and PCI on the thermal coal market
and increasingly mining thermal coal seams in their mines.
However, the potential for switching is limited as suppliers have tofulfil their existing contracts. In addition, technical limitations make it

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

Australian met coal low-volatile FOB
Newcastle FOB (6 000 kcal/kg)
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 77

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: FOB = free on board
Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Higher-quality coal posted sharper price increases
Marker prices for different types of Australian coal,2021-2022
USD/t

Thermal coal traded in the Pacific Basin differs in quality. Coal canbe characterised primarily by its energy content, the calorific value(CV). Although different types of coal can substitute for each otherto some degree, they each represent separate market segments.

500
400
300

Prices in those market segments used to be strongly connected toeach other. In the second half of 2021, when demand was high andsupply was tight in China and India, prices in all market segments
rose in parallel to record levels and then eased as China’s imports
fell by the end of the year.

200
100
0

In 2022, however, the price development has decoupled. The
current supply strains in Europe and Northeast Asia are mainly
affecting prices for high-grade coal. Australian thermal coal with a
CV of 6 000 kcal/kg is trading for more than twice the price of coalwith a CV of 5 500 kcal/kg. Japanese buyers, in particular, who areturning away from Russian coal supplies, have limited alternatives
to buying Australian high-grade coal, as power plants and logistics
are optimised for this type of coal. Simultaneously, the “La Nina”
weather event brought adverse weather conditions such as heavy
rainfalls and flooding to Australia, hampering coal exports. In
comparison, prices for low-grade Indonesian coal have hardly
changed since April 2022, mainly because Indonesian supply
expanded and China’s import demand was lower. Furthermore,competition from Russian coal exports, which trade at large
discounts, increased.

Newcastle (6 000 kcal/kg)

Newcastle (5 500 kcal/kg)

Indonesia (4 200 kcal/kg)
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 78

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: FOB = free on board
Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Big discounts for Russian coal find new buyers in Asia
European prices and its premium on Russian prices. In the categoryof mid-CV coal (5 500 kcal/kg), firm demand from Asia meeting
railway constraints drove coal prices at Far Eastern Russian ports
above Australian prices in October, for the first time since February.
In November, prices on a fob basis at the port of Vostochny settled
at around USD 172/t, a premium of around USD 30/t to Australianprices.

Many countries and companies are hesitant to buy coal from Russia
in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Western sanctions,that include the exclusion from the SWIFT system, put a major
hurdle in place for making payments. The United States announced
a general ban on Russian coal in March, followed by the European
Union, the second-largest importer after China, in April. Also, someJapanese and Korean utilities announced they have stopped buying
Russian coal. Altogether, the European Union, Japan and Korea
accounted for about 40% of Russian coal exports in 2021. Although
the EU coal ban came only fully into force in early August, it
immediately impacted spot prices. Russian coal prices havedeclined since March, while ARA (Amsterdam Rotterdam Antwerp)
prices rose further. The discount for Russian coal at Baltic portsrose from 41% in March to 73% in September.

USD/tEuropean and Russian thermal coal (6 000 kcal/kg) pricemarkers, 2021-2022
500
400
300
200

From March to June, the import ban put more pressure on export
prices at Russia's Baltic ports and Vostochny, while prices at BlackSea ports, which mainly supply Türkiye, the Middle East, North
Africa and India, were about USD 40/t higher. In the second half ofthe year, Western Russian prices fell by about USD 20/t in Augustwhen the EU coal import ban came into force. Prices at the Far
Eastern port of Vostochny, instead, were pushed up to about
USD 80/t above Western Russian prices driven by increasing
imports from Chinese and Southeast Asian buyers. Prices evenreached ARA levels, before the start of the heating season pushed

1000

ARA CIF

Baltic ports FOB

Black Sea FOB

Vostochny FOB
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 79

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: API = Argus/McCloskey’s Coal Price Index. FOB = free on board. CIF = cost,
insurance and freight.
Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

China’s import price spread narrows on high domestic production and tight seaborne markets
the Pacific seaborne coal market fell below zero several times,
averaging only USD 1.60/t in the first nine months of 2022.

In recent years, China’s policies to curb imports have led to a
spread between domestic coal prices and prices in the PacificBasin. The main driver has been China’s import quotas, exact terms
and conditions of which are unknown. Moreover, China introduced
an unofficial ban on Australian coal in 2020, raising the premium
Chinese buyers have to pay for domestic coal.

Price arbitrage domestic versus imported coal in China,
2020-2022
USD/t

400
350

The price spread increased until 2020, reaching a peak of USD 47/t
in December. On average, Chinese buyers had to pay a 40%
premium to domestic coal on import prices in 2020. At the beginningof 2021, the price spread decreased as soon as China's heating
season ended. In the second half of the year, China’s coal supply
could not keep up with demand, and import volumes and pricesrose sharply. As a result, the price spread spiked to USD 87/t in
October. Since then, China’s supply has increased sharply andimport demand has fallen - and with it the price spread. Risingdemand in Europe kept seaborne coal prices high and caused theprice spread to tip into the negative for the first time in December
2021.

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
- 50
- 100
Jan 20Jul 20Jan 21

Jul 21

Jan 22

Jul 22

Domestic minus imported coal price in South China

In 2022, seaborne coal markets are tight due to insufficient supply,
exacerbated by the Russian aggression in Ukraine and subsequent
geopolitical tensions. At the same time, China has become lessdependent on coal imports as domestic supply increases. As aresult, the price spread between China’s domestic coal market andSouth China domestic FOB incl. VAT, etc. (5 500 kcal/kg)
South China CFR incl. VAT (5 500 kcal/kg)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 80

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: FOB = free on board; CIF = cost, insurance and freight; VAT = value-added tax.
Source: CRU (2022).

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

A strong appreciation of the US dollar makes coal imports even more expensive in many places
Year-on-year development of selected importing countries’
currencies against the US dollar, 2020-2022

International coal trade contracts are negotiated mainly in US
dollars. Therefore, the value of a country's currency against the
dollar affects how affordable coal imports are. In recent years, theexchange rates of major coal-importing countries have fluctuatedonly slightly. Currencies such as the Chinese yuan, the euro, andthe British pound appreciated in 2020 and 2021, primarily due to theFederal Reserve's loose monetary policy. One exception is the
Turkish lira, which has depreciated sharply in recent years.

10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%

Faced with rising inflation rates from 2021, the US Federal Reservebegan to raise interest rates. As a result, the dollar's relative valuerose against other currencies. This development makes the current
energy crisis even more expensive for countries that rely on highenergy imports. The Japanese yen, for example, depreciated by
16% in the first eleven months of 2022. The euro, Korean won,
British pound, and Polish zloty also lost 10-11% in value this year.
The depreciation of the Turkish lira accelerated as well leading to aloss in value of more than 46% compared to the US dollar. Due tothe loss in value, importers from China and India reportedly turned
to lower grades of coal, boosting the Indonesian low-CV coalmarket.

-40%
-50%

2020
CNY INR

EUR

2021
JPY

KRW

2022
GBP PLN

TRY

IEA. CC BY 4.0.
Notes: CNY = Chinese yuan renminbi. INR = Indian Rupee. EUR = Euro. JPY =Japanese Yen. KRW = Korean Republic Won. GBP = Great Britain Pound. PLN =Polish Zloty. TRY = Turkish Lira. 2022 values represent average exchange rates toNovember 2022.
Source: OECD (2022), Monthly Monetary and Financial Statistics (MEI) exchange
rates (USD monthly averages).

PAGE | 81

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The sanctions against Russia have forced Russian producers tolook for alternative buyers, and payments in yuan, rupees, rubles orEmirati dirham have been reported.

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Most coal miners in the United States are unable to take advantage of high prices
About 85% of the coal produced in the United States is consumed
domestically. Most domestic coal trade takes place under long-term
contracts with fixed prices. As a result, many US coal mines canbarely benefit from the current high world market prices. US power
plants' average costs for delivered coal have increased by only
~31% from January 2021 to September 2022. As operating costs
have simultaneously risen sharply, they have undercut the risingsales revenues of some mine operators. In response, surface mines
have begun to link sales agreements and prices to diesel indexes togain price flexibility and cover the elevated production costs.

USD/t

Spot coal prices in different regions of the United States and costfor coal to electric units, 2021-2022
250
200
150
100
50

Spot prices for thermal coal, mostly affected by export coal prices,
have increased enormously over the same period, almost threefoldin the Central Appalachian region and more than fivefold in the
Illinois Basin. Spot prices in the Powder River Basin were notresponsive to current global coal prices because only limited
volumes are transported to ports on Canada’s east coast for export.
Prices rose only in late 2021 as coal inventories fell across theUnited States. Despite high spot prices in Central Appalachia andthe Illinois Basin, coal producers do not seem to have an appetite toincrease production and their share of exported coal. The lack oflong-term perspectives makes finance or even hiring workforce very
hard. Total US coal exports are expected to increase only
marginally this year.

0

Powder River BasinCentral Appalachia rail

Illinois Basin rail or mine

Cost to electric units
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 82

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. EIA (2022), STEO.

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Thermal coal prices surpassed oil on an energy basis
power generation in most countries. In 2021, coal prices closely
followed the upward trend of gas prices until August, reflected in ahigh correlation between both prices. However, in the second half of2021, coal and gas prices on the European market decoupledseveral times and showed a negative or near-zero correlation.
While gas prices reached peak levels, peaking in October andDecember, coal prices declined from a record high in October as
China’s import demand weakened. In 2022, price volatility was highfor both commodities and so was the moving correlation coefficient.
Both prices spiked when Russia started its invasion of Ukraine, thenfell and trended sideways until June. Since then, gas prices haverisen rapidly as Russia curbed flows and Europe focused on fillingstorage. However, plant availability and low water levels on the
Rhine, which impeded coal shipments to power plants in Southern
Germany, constrained coal-fired power generation. European coalprices continued trending sideways at only slightly elevated levels.
Since September, prices for both commodities have declined handin hand.

Since the second half of 2021, prices for energy commodities, suchas oil, coal and gas, have surged, albeit by varying degrees. The
main drivers in 2021 have been the economic recovery, particularly
in Asia and North America and the constraint on supply expansion
and Russia’s reduced gas supplies to Europe. In 2022, the Russian
invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent geopolitical tensions added
turmoil and uncertainty, leading to what can be considered the firstglobal energy crisis.
During the energy crisis, the importance of coal as a substitute forscarce gas increased worldwide, while oil demand declined as theglobal economy slowed. For the first time ever, coal prices(Newcastle high-CV coal) – in terms of energy content – rose above
the price of Brent crude oil twice in 2022, in August and November.
Crude oil, which has a higher fundamental value in terms of calorificvalue, usually trades at a multiple of coal prices, because versatility
makes it a superior fuel, suitable for many different applications.
This phenomenon was short-lived, however, as Newcastle coalprices fell shortly afterwards and crude oil prices recovered soon.

PAGE | 83

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Gas and coal prices tend to be highly correlated, as both are linked
through the potential for switching between gas- and coal-fired

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Marker prices for ARA CIF coal and Brent Crude Oil, 2021-2022

Correlation of ARA CIF coal and TTF gas prices, 2020-2022
1.0

12

0.5

50

8

0.0

25

4

-0.5

0

0

-1.0

Index
Newcastle FOB (6000 kcal/kg)

ARA CIF (6000 kcal/kg) Index (left axis)
TTF Index (left axis)
60 day moving correlation (right axis)

Brent Crude Oil
IEA. All rights reserved.

IEA. All rights reserved.

Note: FOB = free on board
Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

Note: CIF = cost, insurance and freight. TTF = Title Transfer Facility
Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 84

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

USD/MWh75

Correlation

16

100

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Forward curves suggest very tight market conditions until 2025
gas (TTF, July 2025 contract) rose from USD 12.20/MBtu to
USD 22.10/MBtu, a smaller relative increase compared to coalprices.

The forward price curve of API2 (a price index for coal deliveries toEurope) shows backwardation. In other words, spot prices arehigher than future prices, indicating short-term shortage and market
expectations that prices will decline.

API2 spot prices and forward curves, 2021-2025
USD/t

However, the forward curve’s backwardation has turned softer inrecent months as forward prices have significantly shifted upward.
When prices peaked for the first time in October 2021, market
participants believed market imbalances would be short-lived andprices would normalise to levels below USD 100/t within one year.
In mid-March when spot prices were close to USD 400/t, even longterm API2 swaps for the calendar year 2025 were traded just below
USD 100/t. Five months later, in mid-September spot prices had
declined slightly to USD 366/t but swap prices for coal for 2025
almost tripled to USD 281/t. Two months later, mid-November, after
spot prices had slumped to USD 188/t, API2 swap prices for 2025
fell again to USD 167/t. After spot prices returned to an upward
trajectory with the beginning of the heating season, swap prices for2025 increased to USD 237/t at the beginning of December.

500

400

300

200

100

0

Thus, coal markets are expected to remain tight for the foreseeable
future. However, the future price direction, will strongly depend on
the developments on the European natural gas markets. Following
Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, Russia has sharply reduced gas
supplies to Europe, and the continent now relies on supplies fromtight global LNG markets. From March to October, future prices of

Spot

Oct-21

Mar-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 85

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

PAGE | 86

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Costs

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Coal supply costs increased in 2021 but prices rose more and profitability improved
In 2022, coal mine profitability remains exceptionally high as prices
have continued to rise. In the first nine months, Australian high-CV
thermal coal traded at ~356 USD/t on average, a y-o-y-increase of161%.

The supply costs for metallurgical coal are generally higher thanthose for thermal coal. This is because met coal is more often
mined underground and, on average, comes from smaller coalmines than thermal coal. In addition, the preparation costs for met
coal are higher than for thermal coal.

Indicative hard coking coal FOB supply curve 2021 and average
FOB marker prices
USD/t

In 2021, the cost of coking coal supply was relatively stablecompared to 2020, but the amount of exported coking coalincreased. In particular, Russia's Elga low-cost coal mine, whichramped up exports in 2021, has placed itself at the beginning of theexport supply curve for coking coal. As prices increased, so did the
profitability of coking coal production. The average FOB price forAustralian low-volatile met coal rose by 79% compared to theprevious year.
The supply cost curve for high and low CV thermal coal shifted
upward as the cost of input factors such as fuel, steel products andlabour increased. In particular, mining costs at Indonesian andAustralian mines rose. The key factor here was royalties, whichroughly doubled in Australia and almost tripled in Indonesia. In
addition, the depreciation of local currencies led to an increase inoperating costs, such as the cost of fuel and mining equipment.
However, the profitability of coal mines, particularly high-CV mines,
increased sharply as prices reached record highs. The average
FOB price for Australian thermal coal with a CV of 6 000 kcal/kg
increased by 134% from 2020 to 2021.

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

Australian low-vol (FOB, 2022)

Australian low-vol (FOB, 2021)
Australian low-vol (FOB, 2020)

25

50

Australia
United States
Mongolia

75

100 125 150 175 200 225 250
Mt
Indonesia
RussiaCanadaMozambiqueRest of world
2020
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 87

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: FOB = free on board. HCC = hard coking coal. Cost curves account for variable
production costs, overburden removal, royalties, inland transportation and port usage
fees. The annual average FOB marker price is based on the monthly average index forAustralian prime hard coking coal. The 2022 price is based on the average forJanuary-September.
Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved. Adapted from CRU (2022),
Metallurgical Cost Model (database)Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Record margins for coal producers

350

Indicative low calorific (< 4 500 kcal/kg) thermal coal FOB
supply curve 2021 and average FOB marker prices
USD/t

USD/t

Indicative high calorific (> 5 700 kcal/kg) thermal coal FOB
supply curve 2021 and average FOB marker prices
Newcastle (6 000 kcal/kg, FOB, 2022)

90
80

300

70

250

60

100
50
0

Indonesia (4 200 kcal/kg, FOB, 2021)

50

200
150

Indonesia (4 200 kcal/kg, FOB, 2022)

40

Newcastle (6 000 kcal/kg, FOB, 2021)

30

50

100

150

200

250

300

Indonesia (4 200 kcal/kg, FOB, 2020)

20

Newcastle (6 000 kcal/kg, FOB, 2020)

10

350

0

400

50

Indonesia

RussiaUnited States

South Africa

Colombia

Others

2020

150

Mt

Mt
Australia

100

Australia

Indonesia

RussiaSouth Africa

Others2020
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 88

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: The cost curves account for variable production costs, overburden removal, royalties, inland transportation, and port usage fees. The cost curve is not adjusted for different
qualities of coal. The transportation costs given are to the closest port, so the FOB costs of Russian producers in Asia are somewhat higher than the figure shows. The annual average
FOB marker price is based on the monthly average index from Newcastle/Indonesian steam coal. The 2022 prices are based on the monthly average from January-September.
Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved. Adapted from CRU (2022), Thermal Cost Model (database).

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Input costs of coal mines rose sharply
Nominal prices of selected commodities and input factors used incoal mining, 2020-2022
Index

The cost structure of coal mines is determined mainly by operating
expenses such as labour and fuel costs, taxes and royalties as wellas transportation expenditures (e.g., for inland transportation, port
fees and seaborne freight). The cost proportion depends on themining method (surface or underground) and can vary considerably
depending on the producer, country and specific mine site.

350
300
250

Input factors such as fuel, explosives, tyres, and steel products aretraded internationally, and prices follow global trends. Prices fortyres and explosives have been relatively stable in recent years. In
an overall inflationary environment, they have increased by about
20% and 15%, respectively, since the beginning of 2021. In
contrast, fuel and steel prices have been subject to wide
fluctuations. In the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, fuel prices fellto their lowest level since 2003 in June 2020. Prices recovered in
2021 and jumped to record levels in the first half of 2022 amid
global energy shortages. Prices for steel products more thandoubled in 2021 as the economy recovered before slipping slightly
in 2022 as the economic outlook deteriorated.

200
150
100
50
0
Jan-20Jul-20

Diesel fuelJan-21
Explosives

Jul-21

Jan-22

Jul-22

Steel products

Tyres
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 89

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: US Bureau of Labour Statistics (2022), Producer Price Indexes.

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Fuel costs rose in many countries, in particular lifting opencast mining costs
In 2021, oil prices recovered from the very low levels of 2020, when
the Covid-19 pandemic weighed heavily on prices. Diesel pricesrose further in many countries in 2022. However, the share of fuelcosts in total operating costs remained constant in most countries,
as other cost factors such as labour and sustaining capital costs
increased even more. Indonesia and Russia recorded an increase.

Diesel fuel costs are an important factor in a mine’s operating cost.
In particular, opencast mines rely on diesel-fuelled trucks and otherequipment. As opencast mining is the predominant mining method
in Colombia and Indonesia, fuel prices are a more important factor
for the mines’ profitability than, for example, in China, where
opencast mining has a rather small share.

USD/t

Average fuel costs and share in total coal mining costs in selected countries, 2020-2022
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
Australia

Colombia

Indonesia

Average fuel costs (left axis)

RussiaSouth Africa

United States

0%

China

Share of fuel costs in total mining costs (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 90

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: Adapted from CRU (2022), Thermal Cost Model (database).

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Labour costs continue to rise in most countries
seek to increase coal production and are willing to pay higher
wages to hire enough workers. However, due to a surging increaseof other cost factors such as resource costs, the share of labourcosts in total operational costs sunk for all considered countries.

Labour costs vary significantly among coal-producing countries andaffect the competitiveness of exporters. 6 In Australia, Russia, South
Africa and China, labour costs increased in 2021, partly due to theappreciation of the local currencies against the US dollar. In 2022,
labour costs rose in all major coal-exporting countries as companies

USD/t

Average labour costs and share in total coal mining costs in selected countries, 2020-2022
25

50%

20

40%

15

30%

10

20%

5

10%

0

2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
Australia

Colombia

Indonesia

Average labour costs (left axis)

RussiaSouth Africa

United States

0%

China

Share of labour costs in total mining costs (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: Adapted from CRU (2022), Thermal Cost Model (database)

6

PAGE | 91

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

China is included because its domestic coastal coal trade of more than 800 Mt is comparable with
global trade.

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Governments raise royalties to participate in high market prices
In many countries, royalties roughly doubled both in 2021 and again
in 2022. Australia’s mining region Queensland increased royalties
the most, both in absolute and relative terms. In 2022, royalties
account for about a quarter of mining costs in Queensland, or
USD 39 on average. Indonesia switched from a CV-based to a spot
price-linked system, which led to an increase in royalties from 3% to
up to 10% for some mining companies.

The national and regional governments secure the right to receive
royalties for each tonne of coal produced in return for granting
mining licences. The height of royalties varies from country tocountry and from region to region. In 2021 and 2022, governments
across the globe increased royalties to benefit from rising coalprices.

USD/t

Average royalties and share in total coal mining costs in selected countries, 2020-2022
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
New South
Wales

Queensland

Western
Australia

Average royalty costs (left axis)

South
Kalimantan

East Kalimantan

CentralKalimantan

0%South Sumatra

Share of royalty costs in total mining costs (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 92

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: Adapted from CRU (2022), Thermal Cost Model (database).

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

A strong US dollar increases the competitiveness of other exporters
Year-on-year development of selected currencies against the US
dollar, 2019-2022

Currency exchange rates affect the competitiveness of exporters.
While coal trading contracts are mainly in US dollars, operating
costs are settled in local currencies. Consequently, a local currency
depreciation against the US dollar implies a reduction in operating
costs and increases producers’ competitiveness.

15%

5%

In 2020 most coal-exporting countries’ currencies depreciatedagainst the US dollar, driven by the economic crisis related to the
Covid-19 pandemic. With a loose US monetary policy, the global
economic recovery and surging energy prices, the currencies of theexport-oriented economies like China and top-energy exporters like
Australia, Indonesia and South Africa appreciated against the US
dollar in 2021.

-5%

-15%

Since the second half of 2021, the US Federal Reserve raised theinterest rates, and investments in US dollar became more attractive,
causing investors to withdraw money from other countries. In
particular, developing countries’ currencies like the Colombian peso
and the South African rand depreciated against the US dollar in
2022. An exception is the Russian ruble, which appreciated slightly
against the US dollar despite western sanctions due toextraordinarily high revenue streams from energy exports.

2020
AUD
CNY

2021
COP
IDR

RUB

2022
ZAR
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

PAGE | 93

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: AUD = Australian dollar; CNY = Chinese yuan renminbi; ZAR = South African
rand; RUB = Russian ruble; IDR = Indonesian rupiah; COP = Colombian peso. The
chart displays the y-o-y average exchange rate development of the selected currencies
expressed in change from the previous year. 2022 represents average exchange rates
to August 2022 for all currencies except the AUD, which is to September 2022.
Source: OECD (2022), Monthly Monetary and Financial Statistics (MEI): Exchange
rates (USD monthly averages).

Prices and costs

Coal 2022

Freight rates ease as global economy slows
Freight rates declined at the end of 2021 as energy prices fell andpressure on global supply chains eased slightly. In March 2022,
freight costs rose again due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
which caused energy and grain prices to increase dramatically. In
addition, unfavourable weather conditions, e.g. on the Australianeast coast, hampered coal shipments. In the second half of theyear, freight rates declined as grain prices fell and the global
economy, and thus demand for goods, slowed. Currently, the global
coal trade bottleneck is coal production, not transport.

About 93% of the global coal trade is seaborne and shipped by dry
bulk vessels. Seaborne coal trade makes up 23% of total seaborne
dry bulk trade by mass, ahead of grain (10%) and slightly behindiron ore (29%). The vessels can be categorised by the deadweight
tonnage (dwt). The four main vessel types are Handysize,
Handymax/ Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize, with the mostused being Panamax (60 000 – 80 000 dwt) and Capesize (over80 000 dwt).
Shipping costs are mainly determined by fuel prices, while final
freight rates depend on supply and demand. The pandemic-related
demand reduction for coal and iron ore led to a decline in freightrates in 2020. Freight rates for shipments from Australia to Japanand Europe, served mainly by Capesize vessels, were more
affected than those with Panamax vessels, e.g. on the route fromIndonesia to China.

USD/tFreight rates on selected routes, 2020-2022
50
40
30
20

In 2021, freight rates picked up strongly as global demand for goods
and energy increased. Energy shortages in China and India further
increased import demand in the second half of the year. Freightrates to Europe peaked in October amid tight gas supplies andrising demand for thermal coal. In addition, some ports werepartially or fully closed as part of the measures to contain the Covid19 pandemic, which led to queues on ships and reduced the overall
supply of cargo capacity.

100
Jan 20Jul 20Jan 21
Jul 21
Jan 22
Jul 22Australia-Japan (Panamax)
Australia-Rotterdam (Capesize)Indonesia-South China (Panamax)
IEA. All rights reserved.

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Source: Argus Media group. All rights reserved.

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Coal mining projects

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High prices hardly stimulate coal mining projects
Two reasons could justify an uptick in coal investment. First, theunprecedented high prices prevailing since October 2021 havemade thermal coal one of the best-performing commodities sincethen. Second, the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine and its consequences, i.e. energy shortages, has renewed
focus on energy security. Whereas the two above-mentioned
factors undeniably impact market players’ moods, the analysis of
the evolution of the individual projects and new ones does not show
signs of significant acceleration in coal investment outside China
and India.

projects is not accelerating. Last but not least, a part of the current
market tightness comes from the reverse of European coal imports,
which, driven by the extreme gas shortage, are growing. However,there is a common vision among investors that the EU‘s appetite forcoal, particularly non-Russian coal after the ban on the country’s
imports, will be a short-term opportunity, which producers will try to
cash in, but that will not drive new investment.
This report classifies projects as "more advanced" or "lessadvanced". 7 The more-advanced projects worldwide amount to an
expected production capacity of ~92 Mtpa. More than 65% of theseare metallurgical (met) coal projects, although met coal accounts forless than 15% of global coal demand and about one-third ofinternational trade. The more-advanced projects are concentrated inAustralia (36%), Russia (23%) and South Africa (15%). The total
pipeline of more-advanced projects has declined very slightly by acapacity of 3 Mtpa as some projects have been realised and very
few less-advanced projects have progressed.

The pressure from environmental, social and governance (ESG)
policies is not easing. Countries are not relaxing climate or coalphase-out goals (although some countries have temporary delayed
the deadline), and getting the approval, finance and insurance of anew project has become more challenging. Renewed interest in
CCUS has not impacted investment decisions yet. Investor data
show some increase in sustaining CAPEX to enjoy the current
prices for longer and in some expansionary CAPEX, particularly inflexible producers like Indonesia. Still, investment in greenfield

All less-advanced projects together amount to a production capacityof 663 Mtpa, of which ~75% are thermal coal projects. The volume

7

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More-advanced projects have been approved and obtained a final investment decision or are
under construction, while less-advanced projects are at the feasibility or environmental assessment
stage, or they are awaiting approval.

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Coal 2022

of less-advanced projects has decreased by about 90 Mtpa
compared to last year's report, as some major projects have beencancelled or are considered cancelled due to a lack of progress inrecent years. According to official data, about 63% of the lessadvanced projects are in Australia. However, this number should betaken with caution, as Australia is more transparent about planned
coal projects than other countries. Uncertainty about new mining
investments is particularly high in Indonesia, the country with thehighest new production among the major exporting countries. A
non-exhaustive list of coal mining projects in the major exporting
countries can be found in the Appendix.

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Investments in mining projects often go hand in hand with
infrastructure investments. The largest project completed this year
is a 415 km rail link from Mongolia's largest coal mine, Talvan
Tolgoi, to the Chinese border. Other examples of large
infrastructure projects can be found in Russia to increase thecountry's export capacity to the east or in southern Africa to export
coal from landlocked Botswana.

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More-advanced coal mining projects are primarily in Australia and Russia
Capacity of hard coal export mining projects by country and coal grade (Mtpa)

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Metallurgical coal projects continue to be the focus for investors on coal
Coal grades in hard coal export mining projects

Steel production will remain coal-based in the medium term. Other
promising technological approaches, such as hydrogen-based
steelmaking, are not yet available on the scale and at the costrequired and are not expected in the coming years. This is reflected
in a share of about one-third of all more-advanced coal export
mining projects.

More-advanced(72 Mtpa)

Investors seem to prefer metallurgical coal projects to thermal coalprojects. Pure thermal coal projects account for only about 35%(32 Mt) of the more-advanced projects, although thermal coal's
market share is three times that of coking coal. However, thermal
coal's share is about 43% in the less-advanced projects.

28%

31%

Less-advanced(591 Mtpa)

31%
44%

25%

41%

The lower appetite for thermal coal projects reflects an expected
reduction in demand and the higher risks and uncertainty
associated with climate targets and public opposition. Due to theavailability of substitutes for coal-fired power generation, such as
renewables, investors are pushing companies to reduce theircarbon footprint.

Thermal coal

Met coal

Both
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The major mining companies continue to turn away from thermal
coal by splitting up or selling their coal-related assets. Companies
such as Rio Tinto and Anglo American have already divested mostof their coal mines. BHP announced the intention to sell its Mt
Arthur thermal coal mine. The company announced that it did not
find a buyer and instead it applied for a permit to operate beyond
2026, until 2030.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2022

Australia is home to most of the announced export-oriented coal projects

More than 46% of the world’s more-advanced coal mining projects
are in Australia, amounting to 33 Mtpa of new capacity. Most ofthese projects are located in Queensland (25 Mtpa). Approximately
19 Mtpa of coal mining capacity could commence operations by
2023. Pembroke Resources is advancing its USD 1 billion Olive

Downs coal project, which is scheduled for commissioning next
year. In NSW, Malabar Coal’s Maxwell mine, with a capacity of
3 Mtpa to 3.6 Mtpa, is set to start operations in mid-2023. The mine
will produce about 75% coking coal, and the remainder thermalcoal. Furthermore, Australian Pacific Coal will resume production at
the Dartbrook underground mine, which has been idle for 16 years,
in the second half of 2023. The thermal coal mine has an initial
production rate of 1.5 Mtpa, but has been approved to produce up
to 6 Mtpa in 2024. The company is targeting a further increase in
the mine’s capacity to 10 Mtpa.
Australian planning authorities, which have been stricter toward newcoal projects in recent years, appear to be taking a softer stance.
Several projects have already been approved this year. MACH
Energy received approval to double the production capacity of its
Mount Pleasant mine in NSW from 10.5 Mtpa to 21 Mtpa and toextend the life of the mine from 2026 to 2048. The mine produces
thermal and semi-soft coking coal. Furthermore, the projects toextend the life of the 7.5 Mtpa New Acland thermal coal mine,
owned by New Hope, and the 5 Mtpa Carborough Downs coalmine, owned by Fitzroy Resources, was approved.
The overall capacity of the less-advanced project pipeline amounts
to about 565 Mtpa, of which 348 Mtpa are thermal coal projects.
The total capacity of planned projects has decreased compared tothe previous year, as some projects have advanced and others
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In Australia, mining companies continue their efforts to increase
coal production by expanding existing sites and (re)opening mines.
Most of the mines produce metallurgical coal, the only new thermal
coal mine is Carmichael mine. The mine, owned by Bravus, began
production in the last quarter of 2021 and commenced regular coalexport shipments through the Abbot Point port in January 2022. Allother new mines produce coking coal. In Queensland, Qcoal
restarted the Cook mine in April, which had been on care andmaintenance since December 2019. The mine is expected to reacha full capacity of 1.2 Mtpa in November. In April, Bowen Coking
Coal (BCC) reopened and shipped the first coal from the 1-1.2 Mtpa
Bluff ultra-low volatile PCI mine. A few months later, in July, thecompany also began mining met coal at the Broadmeadow East pit.
The company also intends to commission the nearby Burton pit latein the fourth quarter and to start up the new 5 Mtpa Burton coalhandling and processing plant next year to form the Burton met coalcomplex. In New South Wales (NSW), SIMEC Mining plans toincrease the capacity of the Tahmoor South metallurgical coal minefrom 3 Mtpa to 4 Mtpa.

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have been cancelled. South 32, for example, has decided not toproceed with the Dendrobium Next Domain extension project, after
the NSW Independent Planning Commission rejected the plan.
Without the expansion, the mine's capacity will drop to 5.5 Mtpa
instead of the targeted 7.5-8 Mtpa and will likely close in 2028. The
company also vows not to develop or invest in greenfield met coalprojects.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2022

Russia's ailing coal sector looks more at the East
In response to the European ban on imports of Russian coal, thecountry’s coal exporters are accelerating the long-planned
expansion of infrastructure to the east in order to increase exports,
especially to China and India. So far, however, Russian exporters
are suffering from the sanctions and lack of capacity in the railway
network to reroute coal that used to be exported in northwest ports
to the east.
In the second half of 2022, a first Sino-Russian railway crossing
over the Amur is to be put into operation, which will significantly
expand cross-border transport capacities. It will connect Russia's
Nizhneleninskoye with China's Tongjiang, initially with a capacity of
5 Mtpa, which can be expanded to 21 Mtpa in the future.
Further infrastructure projects are progressing. For example, AProperty’s new terminal Port Elga at Cap Manorsky with a railway
connection to its Elga complex, with a planned capacity of 30 Mtpa
and a commencement date in 2024, got environmental approval in
September.
To strengthen its ties with India, SUEK is opening an office in India
as it intends to increase thermal and coking coal imports from
Russia by up to 40 Mtpa until 2035. To this end, further investments
in shipping infrastructure are likely yet not announced.

extension project is ramping up production targeting an additional
4 Mtpa coking coal capacity. A-Property completed the extension of
its Elga mine. However, the ramp-up of the 6 Mtpa coking andthermal coal mine depends on the pace of the associated railway
development. The mine is operated by ELSI, which is the result of amerger of A-Property’s portfolio firms Elga and Sibanthracite andnow the largest metallurgical coal exporter in Russia. Additionally,
A-Property started to ramp up production at its 5 Mtpa
Verkhneteshsky open-cut coking coal mine in the Kuzbass region,
also operated by ELSI. The mine will predominantly serve the Asianmarket and is expected to reach an output of 1 Mtpa by the end of2023. On top of that, UglePromInvest’s Sibirskya commenced
production of its 6 Mtpa thermal coal mine.
More-advanced projects comprise thermal and coking coal
operations in the south and the north. SUEK’s Chernogorsky
expansion project, close to Novosibirsk, has a production capacityof 3.5 Mtpa thermal coal. AEON’s West-Taymyr Industrial Cluster,
close to port Dikson in the Kara Sea, has a coking coal production
capacity of 5 Mtpa.
Further expansion projects close to the West appear to be on holddue to transportation constraints eastwards as the European Union
shuns Russian coal.

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The commissioning of two expansion projects close to the Chinese
border favours the reorientation eastwards. Kolmar’s Inaglinsky

Coal mining projects

Coal 2022

While South Africa's coal sector stagnates, neighbouring countries step inSouth Africa

Botswana

The South African coal mining sector is slowly contracting after
years of underinvestment, with coal mining capacity declining andthe rail network underperforming in recent years. In fact, no newmining capacity was added this year. The only notable capacity
extension is the completed construction of Exxaro’s Grootegeluk 6
processing plant, which will allow the company to increase theproduction of high-grade export coal to 1.7 Mtpa.

While South Africa's coal production is declining, Botswana ispreparing to fill the breach, at least in part. Projects with a potential
capacity of at least 10 Mtpa are already more advanced. Some aim
to supply South Africa, whose domestic coal production is
insufficient to supply the power sector. To this end, and to provide
the landlocked country with access to South African export
terminals, South Africa's Transnet and Botswana's railroad
company have agreed to repair and upgrade a 126-km rail line
between the two countries. The rail line will allow heavy trains totravel from Botswana to the export ports of Richards Bay andDurban.

In addition, less-advanced projects with a total production capacityof 47 Mtpa are known. The most recent announcement is thepotential life extension of Thungela’s 4.6 Mtpa Khwzela thermal coalmine.

At the country's oldest operating coal mine, Morupule Coal Mine
(MCM), construction has begun on the Motheo project, which
includes an open pit mine, a coal preparation and processing plant,
and associated infrastructure. The project will expand MCM's
capacity from 2.8 Mtpa to 4.2 Mtpa. In June, Botswana mining
company Minergy Energy reported that Botswana's second
operating mine, the Masama thermal coal mine, commissioned in
2020, has reached its production capacity of about 1.5 Mtpa. The
company intends to double the capacity if it can secure additional
investment. Minergy also started exporting through the Matolaterminal at the Port of Maputo in Mozambique and the Walvis Bay

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South Africa’s pipeline of more-advanced projects comprises a
potential production capacity of approximately 13 Mtpa. One of themost advanced projects is the Makhado thermal and coking coal
operation, owned by MC Mining. Construction is scheduled to begin
in early 2023. Once commissioned, the mine could produce up to
1.1 Mtpa of coking and thermal coal for sale domestically andinternationally. The original plan was to use the coal processing
plant at Vele Colliery, about 130 km away. Now MC Mining is
considering building an additional coal processing plant at the site
to reduce operating costs.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2022

ports in Namibia, given the limited logistical capacity to export
through South African ports.

owner, has announced a number of investments to increase its dry
bulk export capacity from 1.5 Mtpa to 4.5 Mtpa.

A large part of Botswana's coal resources are located in the
Mmamabula coalfields, and the country is seeking to exploit them.
In 2021, Maatla Resources started its Mmamabula coal project. The
mine is expected to start production in mid-2023 with a production
rate of 1.2 Mtpa and later ramp up to about 4.5 Mtpa. The coal will
be sold domestically and on the South African market. India-based
Jindal also announced plans to start constructing a 4.5 Mtpa coalmine in the southeastern Mmamabula coalfields in 2022. The mineis expected to be developed in two to three years and supply aplanned local power plant and the South African market. In the longterm, the company's vision is to significantly increase coalproduction at the Mmamabula site to 24 Mtpa and export coaloverseas.

Zimbabwe

All proposed coal mining projects in Mozambique are classified asless advanced and none of the projects has reported progress by2022.
However, the importance of the Port of Maputo is increasing as itprovides an alternative to constrained South African export capacity
for coal exports from landlocked Botswana. Grindrod, the port’s

Tanzania
In view of the current high price level, Tanzanian coal mines, which
actually concentrate on domestic coal-fired power generation, aretrying to export coal. This is being facilitated in tandem by an
expansion of export capacity at the port of Mtwara. The port has
multiplied the number of ships it can handle per month and isaiming for an export capacity of 0.65 Mtpa.

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Mozambique

The Zimbabwean government is planning new mines withcorresponding coal-fired power plants in the northwestern district ofHwange, which would require investment in coal mines to fuel thoseplants. However, it is unclear whether the development will goahead since potential investor China has decided to ban investment
in coal-fired power plants abroad. One coal project already underdevelopment is the Lubu Coking Coal Project, which could produce
up to 5 Mtpa of met coal. In 2022, owner Contango announced that
quality tests had been better than expected. The first coal is
expected to be delivered by the end of the year.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2022

In the United States, Canada and even in Europe, coking coal projects take centre stage
United States
In the United States, multiple coking coal mines and a thermal coalmine started operation in 2022. Ramaco Resources increased its
metallurgical coal production capacity by a total of ~2.6 Mtpa,
powered partly by the expansion projects at the Berwind and the Elk
Creek complex and partly by the commission of two new mines: the0.7 Mtpa Knox Creek mine and the 0.2 Mtpa Big Creek 2 mine.
Moreover, Ramaco Resources acquired Ramaco Carbon LCC at
the beginning of the year and commenced production in its
0.25 Mtpa thermal coal Brook Mine.
Peabody reopened its Shoal Creek mine, which closed in 2020 due
to low demand, and started ramping up coking coal production. The
mine is set to reach its maximum production capacity of 2.1 Mtpa
soon. Furthermore, additional coking coal projects with anaggregated capacity of 4.5 Mtpa are categorised as moreadvanced, with North Central Resources’ Longview coal mine
standing out with a total of 3 Mtpa. Its start of production has been
rescheduled from end-2022 to mid-2023.

CanadaThe only more-advanced project is CST’s Grande Cache mine witha maximum capacity of 1.7 Mtpa, which appears to be on the brinkof reopening. Together with the less-advanced coking coal projects
Grassy Mountain (4.5 Mpta) by Bega Mining and Mountain Tent
(1.1 Mtpa) by Montem, it was excepted from a restriction on
exploration and development projects passed by the Alberta
government. The largest project under development is the 10 Mtpa
coking coal project Fording River Extension by Teck Coal. Its starthas been scheduled for 2027.

EuropeAfter committing to phasing out coal-fired power generation,
European mining projects only focus on new coking coal mines in
the United Kingdom and Poland. Poland’s first new coking coalmine in 25 years, JSW’s Bzie-Debina 1-Zachod, commenced
production with a capacity of 2.2 Mtpa. In the United Kingdom, West
Cumbria Mining’s 2.5 Mtpa coking coal project Woodhouse Colliery
has been approved in December 2022, making it the United
Kingdom’s first new coal mine project in 30 years. The mine could
be operational within two years with an estimated production of
0.5 Mtpa in the first phase.

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Due to political restrictions, multiple coking coal projects have beencancelled lately. As a result, the project pipeline’s capacity
decreased by ~10 Mtpa to ~34 Mtpa.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2022

Indonesia and Mongolia are expanding export capacities, while Colombia halts development
The lack of transparency regarding mining projects makes it difficult
to compare Indonesia with other countries. However, traceable
projects are predominantly thermal coal projects in different stages.
Kangaroo Resources started ramping up its thermal coal project
Parkar North slowly. The project has a maximum production
capacity of 16 Mtpa. In addition, ITM’s Graha Panca Karsa mine
commenced production at the beginning of this year with amaximum capacity of 2 Mtpa. Moreover, IATA ramped up
production of its Indonesia Batu Prima Energi mine with an overall
capacity of 1 Mt. The most recent mine commissioning is the Bumi
Barito Mineral mine. The mine is 60%-owned by Cokal and willproduce both coking and PCI coal in the Central Kalimantan
province. Cokal started operations in October and aims to reachmaximum capacity of 2 Mtpa in 2023.

Mongolia
Investments in Mongolia are strongly directed to improve access toChina’s coking coal market infrastructural-wise. Mongolia has
completed the Tavan Tolgoi rail line, a 233 km railway link to China(to Gashuua Sukhait) with a capacity of 30-50 Mtpa. It will enable
boosting coking coal exports from the Tavan Tolgoi mine byreplacing truck transport. Mongolia has also completed a second
major rail link to China – from Zuunbayan to the border point

between Khangi and Mandal. Moreover, China intends to expand athird border checkpoint between Zamyn-Uud and Erlian in 2022.
Additionally, though more expensive, to increase throughput as thecountries’ rail gauges are different, Mongolia is shifting from bulk
cargo to containers.
Besides infrastructural accomplishments, Mongolian coking coalmining projects such as Aspire Mining’s Ovoot project with acapacity of 4 Mtpa or Saker Resources’ Shinjinst with a total
capacity of 3 Mtpa are progressing. Both projects appear to beclose to starting production.

Colombia
The new government of Colombia has expressed its intention to
reduce Colombia’s dependency on oil and coal gradually. For thislegislative period, it plans not to grant any new exploration project offossil resources. Before this year’s elections, investors started toretreat from the consolidating Colombian market. BHP and Anglo
American sold their stakes in the Cerrejon coal mine to Glencore at
the beginning of 2022. At the same time, Glencore’s portfolio
company Prodeco Group relinquished its mining titles on Prodeco.
New contracting is in progress under that uncertain environment.
However, Ronin Resources announced an expansion of its Vetas
project near the eastern border with Venezuela. The project could
produce PCI and semi-soft metallurgical coal once operational.
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Indonesia

Annexes

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General annex

Annexes

Coal 2022

TablesTotal coal consumption (Mt), 2020-2025
2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Asia Pacific

5 830

6 153

6 251

6 492

5.5%

1.6%

1.3%

China

4 045

4 232

4 250

4 337

4.6%

0.4%

0.7%

India

905

1 033

1 103

1 220

14.1%

6.8%

3.4%

Japan

174

174

177

158

-0.1%

1.8%

-3.8%

Southeast Asia

356

361

375

422

1.5%

3.8%

4.0%

North America

462

529

502

410

14.4%

-5.1%

-6.5%

United States

430

496

465

383

15.4%

-6.3%

-6.3%

Central and South America

48

50

45

37

3.8%

-8.9%

-6.8%

Europe

585

649

685

552

10.9%

5.7%

-7.0%

European Union

392

449

478

371

14.4%

6.5%

-8.0%

Middle East

13

12

10

7

-7.0%

-14.5%-11.7%

Eurasia

344

348

350

351

1.0%

0.6%

0.1%

Russia

217

225

236

227

3.9%

4.8%

-1.4%

Africa

195

189

180

190

-3.1%

-4.5%

1.7%

World

7 477

7 929

8 025

8 038

6.0%

1.2%

0.1%

Region/country

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Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Thermal coal and lignite consumption (Mt), 2020-2025
2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Asia Pacific

4 916

5 242

5 351

5 592

6.6%

2.1%

1.5%

China

3 306

3 511

3 542

3 643

6.2%

0.9%

0.9%

India

839

959

1 027

1 128

14.2%

7.1%

3.2%

Japan

132

130

133

118

-1.3%

2.3%

-4.0%

Southeast Asia

339

338

350

394

-0.4%

3.7%

4.0%

North America

444

504

479

388

13.6%

-4.9%

-6.8%

United States

417

479

450

369

15.0%

-6.0%

-6.4%

Central and South America

35

35

32

22

0.0%

-9.2%

-11.7%

Europe

522

580

620

489

11.1%

6.8%

-7.6%

European Union

341

390

421

319

14.6%

8.0%

-8.9%

Middle East

9

8

6

3

-13.2%-23.2%-24.1%

Eurasia

265

265

280

281

0.2%

5.7%

0.0%

Russia

153

159

173

167

3.7%

9.3%

-1.2%

Africa

193

186

177

187

-3.5%

-4.6%

1.7%

World

6 382

6 820

6 945

6 960

6.9%

1.8%

0.1%

Region/country

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Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Metallurgical coal consumption (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Asia Pacific

915

911

900

900

-0.4%

-1.2%

0.0%

China

739

720

708

694

-2.5%

-1.7%

-0.7%

India

66

75

76

92

12.9%

2.0%

6.6%

Japan

42

44

44

40

3.6%

0.2%

-3.2%

Southeast Asia

17

24

25

28

41.6%

5.8%

4.0%

North America

19

26

23

22

34.6%

-8.9%

-1.5%

United States

13

17

14

14

27.7%

-14.1%-1.9%

Central and South America

13

15

14

15

13.5%

-8.3%

2.7%

Europe

62

69

66

62

10.0%

-3.9%

-1.8%

European Union

52

58

56

53

13.2%

-3.9%

-2.0%

Middle East

4

4

4

4

6.4%

0.8%

0.8%

Eurasia

79

82

69

70

3.6%

-15.7%

0.4%

Russia

64

67

63

59

4.5%

-6.0%

-1.9%

Africa

2

3

3

3

27.3%

2.7%

2.2%

World

1 095

1 110

1 080

1 078

1.3%

-2.7%

-0.1%

PAGE | 110

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Total coal production (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Asia Pacific

5 747

5 947

6 358

6 456

3.5%

6.9%

0.5%

China

3 789

3 942

4 237

4 237

4.0%

7.5%

0.0%

India

758

805

893

1 021

6.3%

10.9%

4.6%

Australia

474

470

446

450

-0.7%

-5.2%

0.3%

Indonesia

566

569

622

582

0.6%

9.3%

-2.2%

North America

538

579

594

494

7.5%

2.5%

-5.9%

United States

486

524

535

443

8.0%

2.0%

-6.1%

Central and South America

61

66

65

62

9.7%

-2.9%

-1.3%

Europe

447

485

519

433

8.6%

6.9%

-5.8%

European Union

302

332

357

289

10.2%

7.3%

-6.8%

Middle East

2

2

2

2

0.0%

3.6%

0.0%

Eurasia

539

564

538

537

4.7%

-4.6%

-0.1%

Russia

402

437

404

392

8.6%

-7.4%

-1.1%

Africa

260

245

243

238

-5.9%

-0.7%

-0.7%

World

7 592

7 888

8 318

8 221

3.9%

5.4%

-0.4%

PAGE | 111

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Thermal coal and lignite production (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Asia Pacific

4 851

5 061

5 480

5 596

4.3%

8.3%

0.7%

China

3 114

3 257

3 561

3 595

4.6%

9.3%

0.3%

India

752

799

886

1 013

6.3%

10.9%

4.6%

Australia

290

300

277

268

3.4%

-7.7%

-1.0%

Indonesia

562

565

615

572

0.5%

8.9%

-2.3%

North America

460

491

505

408

6.9%

2.7%

-6.9%

United States

436

468

480

391

7.3%

2.5%

-6.6%

Central and South America

56

63

61

58

12.0%

-3.1%

-1.4%

Europe

432

470

504

419

8.7%

7.2%

-6.0%

European Union

288

318

342

275

10.4%

7.6%

-7.0%

Middle East

0

0

0

0

31.2%

1.1%

0.0%

Eurasia

436

456

438

434

4.7%

-4.0%

-0.2%

Russia

303

332

308

295

9.7%

-7.4%

-1.4%

Africa

253

236

234

228

-6.7%

-1.0%

-0.8%

World

6 488

6 777

7 221

7 143

4.5%

6.5%

-0.4%

PAGE | 112

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Metallurgical coal production (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Asia Pacific

896

886

878

860

-1.0%

-1.0%

-0.7%

China

675

684

676

642

1.4%

-1.2%

-1.7%

India

6

6

7

8

0.6%

13.0%

4.7%

Australia

184

171

169

182

-7.2%

-0.9%

2.5%

Indonesia

4

5

7

9

15.2%

62.3%

7.4%

North America

79

88

89

86

11.4%

1.3%

-1.0%

United States

50

56

55

52

13.4%

-1.7%

-2.1%

Central and South America

4

4

4

4

-20.0%

1.1%

0.6%

Europe

14

15

15

15

5.0%

0.3%

-1.4%

European Union

13

14

14

14

5.9%

0.1%

-1.4%

Middle East

1

1

1

1

-3.2%

4.0%

0.0%

Eurasia

103

108

101

102

4.8%

-6.8%

0.5%

Russia

99

104

96

96

5.0%

-7.6%

0.0%

Africa

7

8

9

10

24.4%

8.7%

2.1%

World

1 104

1 111

1 096

1 078

0.6%

-1.3%

-0.6%

PAGE | 113

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Total coal imports (Mt), 2020-2025
2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Europe

137

154

176

118

12.2%

14.3%

-12.5%

Japan

174

173

184

156

-0.5%

6.3%

-5.3%

Korea

123

126

127

119

1.7%

0.7%

-2.0%

Chinese Taipei

63

70

65

66

10.3%

-6.8%

0.4%

China

317

338

285

288

6.8%

-15.7%

0.3%

India

220

207

221

209

-5.9%

7.1%

-1.9%

Southeast Asia

154

150

148

160

-2.4%

-1.5%

2.7%

Rest of world

150

153

136

147

2.3%

-11.4%

2.6%

World

1 338

1 371

1 341

1 262

2.5%

-2.1%

-2.0%

Region/country

PAGE | 114

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Thermal coal and lignite imports (Mt), 2020-2025
2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Europe

86

96

121

66

11.2%

26.0%

-18.4%

Japan

132

129

140

116

-1.9%

8.4%

-6.0%

Korea

86

90

92

86

4.0%

2.2%

-2.1%

Chinese Taipei

55

61

56

56

11.0%

-8.8%

0.0%

China

244

284

240

235

16.2%

-15.4%

-0.7%

India

157

141

152

125

-10.3%

7.8%

-6.4%

Southeast Asia

137

126

124

135

-7.7%

-2.2%

3.1%

Rest of world

119

119

111

117

0.1%

-7.3%

1.8%

World

1 017

1 047

1 035

936

2.9%

-1.1%

-3.3%

Region/country

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Metallurgical coal imports (Mt), 2020-2025

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Europe

51

58

55

52

13.9%

-5.0%

-1.7%

Japan

42

44

44

40

3.6%

0.2%

-3.2%

Korea

37

36

35

33

-3.5%

-3.0%

-1.6%

China

73

55

45

52

-24.6%-17.3%

5.0%

India

63

66

69

84

5.1%

5.4%

6.8%

Rest of world

55

66

58

64

19.6%

-11.6%

3.3%

World

321

324

307

326

1.1%

-5.4%

2.1%

Region/country

PAGE | 115

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Total coal exports (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Australia

376

370

350

362

-1.5%

-5.4%

1.1%

Canada

32

32

36

36

0.1%

14.3%

-0.5%

Colombia

72

55

53

53

-23.8%

-3.2%

0.0%

Indonesia

408

436

473

411

6.8%

8.5%

-4.6%

Russia

212

215

192

189

1.0%

-10.7%-0.5%

South Africa

73

63

70

53

-13.4%

10.3%

-8.9%

United States

63

77

76

65

23.4%

-1.3%

-5.2%

Rest of world

88

85

101

94

-3.3%

19.0%

-2.4%

1 323

1 333

1 351

1 262

0.7%

1.4%

-2.2%

World

PAGE | 116

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Thermal coal and lignite exports (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Australia

200

199

184

183

-0.4%

-7.4%

-0.2%

Colombia

70

54

52

52

-22.9%

-3.7%

0.0%

Indonesia

404

432

469

406

6.8%

8.6%

-4.7%

Russia

174

174

157

150

-0.4%

-9.8%

-1.4%

South Africa

72

63

69

52

-13.5%

10.4%

-9.0%

United States

25

36

35

25

47.4%

-2.8%

-10.7%

Rest of world

63

68

79

68

7.2%

16.4%

-4.7%

1 008

1 025

1 045

936

1.6%

1.9%

-3.6%

World

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Metallurgical coal exports (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Australia

176

171

166

179

-2.7%

-3.0%

2.5%

Canada

27

26

28

30

-2.9%

7.8%

1.7%

Mongolia

19

11

17

18

-40.9%

54.4%

2.5%

Mozambique

4

4

6

6

13.1%

34.2%

1.9%

Russia

38

41

35

39

7.2%

-14.4%

3.3%

United States

38

41

41

40

7.9%

0.0%

-1.0%

Rest of world

13

13

13

15

-1.4%

2.5%

3.3%

World

315

308

307

326

-2.3%

-0.4%

2.1%

PAGE | 117

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Total seaborne coal imports (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Europe

128

147

176

118

15.1%

19.8%

-12.5%

Japan

174

173

184

156

-0.5%

6.3%

-5.3%

Korea

123

126

127

119

1.7%

0.7%

-2.0%

Chinese Taipei

63

70

65

66

10.3%

-6.8%

0.4%

China

295

326

267

268

10.4%

-18.1%

0.1%

India

220

207

221

209

-5.9%

7.1%

-1.9%

Southeast Asia

154

150

148

160

-2.4%

-1.5%

2.7%

Rest of world

125

127

126

137

1.8%

-0.9%

2.8%

World

1 282

1 325

1 313

1 233

3.4%

-0.9%

-2.1%

PAGE | 118

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Seaborne thermal coal and lignite imports (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Europe

77

89

121

66

15.4%

35.6%

-18.4%

Japan

132

129

140

116

-1.9%

8.4%

-6.0%

Korea

86

90

92

86

4.0%

2.2%

-2.1%

Chinese Taipei

55

61

56

56

11.0%

-8.8%

0.0%

China

241

282

239

234

16.9%

-15.5%

-0.7%

India

157

141

152

125

-10.3%

7.8%

-6.4%

Southeast Asia

137

126

124

135

-7.7%

-2.2%

3.1%

Rest of world

106

106

105

112

0.1%

-1.1%

2.0%

World

992

1 025

1 028

929

3.3%

0.2%

-3.3%

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Seaborne metallurgical coal imports (Mt), 2020-2025
2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Europe

50

58

55

52

14.5%

-4.5%

-1.7%

Japan

42

44

44

40

3.6%

0.2%

-3.2%

Korea

37

36

35

33

-3.5%

-3.0%

-1.6%

China

54

44

28

34

-19.0%-35.4%

6.5%

India

63

66

69

84

5.1%

5.4%

6.8%

Rest of world

43

53

54

60

22.0%

2.3%

3.5%

World

290

300

285

304

3.5%

-4.8%

2.1%

Region/country

PAGE | 119

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Total seaborne coal exports (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Australia

376

370

350

362

-1.5%

-5.4%

1.1%

Canada

31

31

36

35

-1.3%

15.5%

-0.5%

Colombia

72

55

53

53

-23.8%

-3.2%

0.0%

Indonesia

408

436

473

411

6.8%

8.5%

-4.6%

Russia

212

215

192

189

1.0%

-10.7%-0.5%

South Africa

73

63

70

53

-13.4%

10.3%

-8.9%

United States

63

77

76

65

23.4%

-1.3%

-5.2%

Rest of world

37

43

48

46

15.2%

12.3%

-1.2%

1 272

1 290

1 298

1 214

1.4%

0.6%

-2.2%

World

PAGE | 120

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Seaborne thermal coal and lignite exports (Mt), 2020-2025
Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Australia

200

199

184

183

-0.4%

-7.4%

-0.2%

Colombia

70

54

52

52

-22.9%

-3.7%

0.0%

Indonesia

404

432

469

406

6.8%

8.6%

-4.7%

Russia

174

174

157

150

-0.4%

-9.8%

-1.4%

South Africa

72

63

69

52

-13.5%

10.4%

-9.0%

United States

25

36

35

25

47.4%

-2.8%

-10.7%

Rest of world

33

38

44

40

16.4%

16.5%

-3.1%

World

978

995

1 010

908

1.8%

1.5%

-3.5%

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Seaborne metallurgical coal exports (Mt), 2020-2025

Region/country

2020

2021

2022

2025

2020-2021

2021-2022

CAAGR
2022-2025

Australia

176

171

166

179

-2.7%

-3.0%

2.5%

Canada

27

26

28

29

-4.4%

8.8%

1.7%

Mozambique

4

4

6

6

13.1%

34.2%

1.9%

Russia

38

41

35

39

7.2%

-14.4%

3.3%

United States

38

41

41

40

7.9%

0.0%

-1.0%

Rest of world

12

11

12

13

-1.4%

2.9%

3.8%

World

294

295

288

306

0.1%

-2.4%

2.1%

PAGE | 121

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2020 and 2021 are from IEA statistics; 2021 are preliminary; 2022 are estimated; 2025 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Proposedfull
capacity(Mtpa)

Resource

StatusCountry

Project

CompanyType

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Australia

Angus Place West

Centennial Coal

N

2024+

2

TC

LA

Australia

Baralaba South

Baralaba Coal

E

..

5

PCI

LA

Australia

Belview

Stanmore Coal

N

2027+

2.6

TC, CC, PCI

LA

Australia

Bulga (Mod 3 and Mod 7)

Glencore

E

2026+

6.6

TC

LA

Australia

BurtonBowen Coking Coal

N

2022

2

TC, CCMA

Australia

Carborough Downs

Fitzroy Australia
Resources

E

..

5

CC, PCILA

Australia

Carmichael Coal Project
Stage 2

Adani

E

..

18

TC

LA

Australia

Caval Ridge Extension

E

2026+

15

CC

LA

Australia

Chain Valley Extension

Delta Coal

E

2023+

2

TC

MA

Australia

China Stone

MacMines Austasia

N

..

38

TC

LA

Australia

Cooroorah

Bowen cokin coal

N

..

..

CC, PCILA

Australia

Curragh Extension

Coronado Global

E

2023

3

TC, CCMA

Australia

Dartbrook

Australian Pacific
Coal

R

2023

6

TC

LA

Australia

Dysart East

Bengal Energy

N

2025

1.2

CC

LA

Australia

Eagle Downs

South32 / Aquila
Resources

N

2025

4.5

TC, CCLA

Australia

Elimatta

New Hope

N

2027+

4

TC, CCLA

PAGE | 122

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Coal mining projects

Proposed
full
capacity(Mtpa)

Resource

StatusCountry

Project

CompanyType

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Australia

Galilee Coal Project

Waratah Coal

N

2027+

40

TC, CCLA

Australia

Gemini Coal Mine

Magnetic South

N

2025+

1.9

CC

LA

Australia

Gorman North Coal Project

Whitehaven Coal

N

..

..

TC

LA

Australia

Grosvenor Phase 2

Anglo American

E

2026+

6

TC, CCLA

Australia

Hillalong

Shandong Energy
Group

N

2023+

4.2

TC, CCMA

Yancoal / Glencore

E

2025+

42

TC, CC

LA

Jellinbah Group

N

2025+

1

PCI

LA

Fitzroy Australia
Resources

N

2023+

2.7

TC, CCMA

Stanmore Coal

N

2024+

2.4

TC, CCMA

Stanmore Coal

E

2029

1.2

TC, CCLA

Australia
Australia
Australia
Australia
Australia

Hunter Valley Operations
Continuations Project
Jellinbah Central North
Extension
Ironbark No. 1 (Ellensfield)
Isaac Plains Complex Isaac Downs Project
Isaac Plains Complex Underground extension

Australia

Karin

Vitrinite / Itochu
Corporation

N

..

1.7

CC

LA

Australia

Kevin's Corner

GVK

N

2027+

10.6

TC

LA

Lake Vermont
Meadowbrook Project
Mandalong Southern
Extension Project
Mangoola Coal Continued
Operations Project

Lake Vermont Joint
Venture

E

2027+

5.5

CC

LA

Centennial Coal

E

2022+

..

TC

MA

Glencore

E

2023+

5

TC

LA

Australia
Australia
Australia

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Coal 2022

Proposed
full
capacity(Mtpa)

Resource

StatusCountry

Project

CompanyType

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Australia

Maxwell Project

Malabar Coal

N

2023+

3.6

TC, CCMA

Australia

Mavis Downs - Millenium

MetRes

E

2022

1.2

CC, PCIMA

Australia

Meandu King 2 East Project

Stanwell

E

2024

5

TC

LA

Australia

Minyango

Qcoal

N

2027+

7

TC

LA

Australia

Moorlands

Cuesta Coal

N

2027+

1.9

TC

LA

Mount Owen (Glendell
Mine) Continued Operations
Project
Mt Pleasant Optimisation
Project

Glencore

E

2024+

7

TC, CCLA

MACH Energy
Australia

E

2026+

10.5

TC

LA

Australia

Narrabri Stage 3

Whitehaven Coal

E

2026+

9

TC

LA

Australia

New Acland (Stage 3)

New Hope

E

2023

7.5

TC

LA

Australia

New Lenton

Bowen Coking Coal

N

2029

1.5

TC, CC, PCI

LA

Centennial Coal

E

2027+

1.6

TC, CCLA

TerraCom

N

..

..

TC

LA

New Hope Coal

N

2027+

4

TC

LA

New Hope Coal

N

2027+

8

TC

LA

Australia
Australia

Australia
Australia
Australia
Australia

Newstan Mine Extension
Project
Northern Galilee Coal
Project
North Surat - Collingwood
Project
North Surat - Taroom
Project

Australia

North Surat - Woori Project

New Hope Coal

N

2027+

2.5

TC

LA

Australia

Olive Downs South

Pembroke
Resources

N

2023

4.5

CC

MA

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Coal 2022

Type

Proposedfull
capacity(Mtpa)

Resource

Status

E

2027+

4.5

CC

LA

N

2027

14

CC

LA

Country

Project

Australia

Olive Downs South Stage 2

Australia

Red Hill Mining

Australia

Rolleston Expansion Project

Glencore

E

2025+

5

TC

LA

Australia

Russell Vale Underground
Expansion Revised Project

Wollongong Coal

E

2021

1

CC

MA

Australia

Saraji East

N

2024

7

CC

LA

Australia

South Galilee Coal Project

N

2027+

3

TC

LA

Australia

Springsure Creek

Adamelia Group

N

2027+

11

TC

LA

Australia

Spur Hill Underground Coal
Project

Malabar Coal

N

2026+

6

TC, CCLA

Australia

Stratford extension

Yancoal Australia

E

2022

1.2

TC

MA

Styx (Central Queensland
Coal Project)
Tahmoor South Coal
Project

Central Queensland
Coal Pty Ltd

N

2027+

2

TC, CCLASIMEC Group

E

2022

1

CC

MA

Australia

The Range Project

Stanmore Coal

N

2026+

5

TC

LA

Australia

Vickery Extension Project

Whitehaven

N

2025

5.5

TC, CCLA

Australia

Vulcan Mine Complex

Vitrinite

N

2022

1.9

CC

MA

Australia

Wallarah 2 Coal Project

Korea Resources
Corp

N

2027+

4

TC

LA

Australia
Australia

Company

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Pembroke
Resources
BHP Billiton /Mitsubishi Alliance

BHP Billiton /Mitsubishi AllianceAlpha Coal Pty Ltd
and AMCI (Alpha)
Pty Ltd

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Coal 2022

Proposed
full
capacity(Mtpa)

Resource

StatusCountry

Project

CompanyType

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Australia

WaltonAquila Resources

N

2024+

1.6

PCI

LA

Australia

WandoanGlencore

N

2027+

22

TC

LA

Australia

Wards Well

N

2027

5

CC

LA

Australia

Willunga/Vermont East

E

2029

4

TC, CC, PCI

LA

Australia

Wilton-Fairhill

Futura Resources

N

2023

2.6

CC

MA

Australia

Winchester SouthWhitehaven Coal

N

2027+

8.5

TC, CCLA

Botswana

Boomslang Project

Tlou Energy

N

..

..

TC

LA

Botswana

Mmamabula Coal Project

Maatla

N

2023

1.2

TC

MA

CanadaCrown MountainJameson Resources

N

2025

1.9

CC, PCILA

CanadaElko

Pacific American
Coal

N

..

1.25

CC

LA

CanadaFording River Extension
Project

Teck Coal

E

2027

10

CC

LA

CanadaChinookMontem Resources

N

..

..

CC

LA

CanadaGrande Cache

CST

N

2022

1.7

CC

MA

CanadaGrassy Mountain

Bega Mining

N

2023+

4.5

CC

LA

CanadaGroundhog

Atrum Coal

N

..

0.9

TC

LA

CanadaMurray River

HD Mining

N

..

6

CC

LA

CanadaMichel Coal ProjectNorth Coal

N

2024

2

CC

LA

CanadaSukunka

Glencore

N

..

3

CC

LA

BHP Billiton /Mitsubishi Alliance
Pembroke
Resources

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Coal 2022

Proposed
full
capacity(Mtpa)

Resource

StatusCountry

Project

CompanyType

Earliest
proposed
start-up

CanadaTenas

Allegiance Coal /Itochu

N

2024

0.75

CC

LA

CanadaTent Mountain

Montem

E

2023

1.1

TC

LA

CanadaWolverine-Hermann
Amendment Project

Conuma Coal
Resources Ltd.

N

2022

1

CC

LA

Colombia

Canaverales

Yildirim Holding

N

2021

2.5

TC

LA

Colombia

Papayal

Yildirim Holding

N

2022

2.4

TC

LA

Colombia

San Juan

Yildirim Holding

N

2023

16

TC, PCILA

Colombia

La Francia and El Hatillo

Colombian Natural
Resources (CNR)

E

2021

2

TC

MA

Indonesia

Adaro MetCoal Companies(AMC) Concessions

Adaro

N

..

..

CC

LA

Indonesia

Arthaco Prima Energi

IATA

N

..

..

TC

LA

Indonesia

Bukit Enim Energi

Adaro

N

..

..

TC

LA

Indonesia

Tambang Benua Alam Raya
(TBAR) project

Cokal

N

..

..

CC

LA

Indonesia

Tekno Orbit Persada

MEC Coal

N

..

5

TC

LA

Mongolia

Nuurstei Coking ProjectAspire Mining

N

2019

1

CC

LA

Mongolia

Ovoot

Aspire Mining

N

2021

4

CC

MA

Mongolia

Shinejinst

Saker Resources

N

2021

3

CC

MA

Mongolia

Tavan Tolgoi Extension

E

2021

19

CC

LA

Mozambique

Moatize Coal Mine

E

2021

15

TC, CCLA

Erdenes Tavan
Tolgoi
Vulcan Minerals(Jindal Group)

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Coal 2022

Proposed
full
capacity(Mtpa)

Resource

StatusCountry

Project

CompanyType

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Mozambique

Ncondezi

Ncondezi Energy

N

2022

1.5

TC

LA

Mozambique

Revuboe

Talbot Group,
Nippon Steel and
POSCO

N

..

7

TC, CCLA

MozambiqueZambeze

ICVL

N

2023

12

CC

LA

PolandJan Karski Project

Prairie Mining

N

..

6.3

CC

LA

RussiaAmaam

Tiger Realm Coal

N

2022

5

CC

LA

RussiaChernogorsky

SUEK

E

2023

3.5

TC

MA

RussiaElegest Expansion

Tuva Energy
Industry Corporation(TEPK)

E

..

10

CC

LA

RussiaInaglinsky-2

Kolmar

E

..

8

CC

LA

RussiaKarakansky (Stage III)
/Karakansky Globoky

Karakan Invest

N

2019

3

TC

LA

RussiaPravoberezhny

SUEK

E

2024

3

TC

LA

RussiaWest-Taymyr Industrial
Cluster

AEON

N

2023

5

CC

MA

RussiaTikhova Stage 2

Industrial
Metallurgical
Holding

E

2025

1.3

CC

LA

South Africa

Argent Colliery

Glencore/Shanduka

N

..

1.2

TC

LA

South Africa

Umzila coal mine

Canyon Coal

N

2023

3.6

TC

MA

South Africa

Boikarabelo Stage 2

Resource
Generation

E

2025+

6

TC

LA

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Coal 2022

Proposed
full
capacity(Mtpa)

Resource

StatusCountry

Project

CompanyType

Earliest
proposed
start-up

South Africa

Eloff coal project

Universal Coal

E

..

2.4

TC

MA

South Africa

Gila coal mine

Canyon Coal

N

..

1.8

TC

LA

South Africa

Gugulethu coal mine

Canyon Coal

N

2023

3.6

TC

MA

South Africa

Khwezela extension

E

2030

4.6

TC

LA

South Africa

Koornfontein OC

E

2023

3

TC

MA

South Africa

Liberty Coal Mine
Expansion

Templar Capital

E

..

12

TC

LA

South Africa

Makhado Phase 1

MC Mining

N

2023

1.1

TC, CC

MASouth Africa

Makhado Phase 2

MC Mining

E

2025

0.6

TC, CCLASouth Africa

New Largo

Seriti

N

..

12

TC

LA

South Africa

Ukwenama coal mine

Canyon Coal

N

..

0.6

TC

LA

South Africa

Weltevreden coal project

Seriti

E

..

..

TC

MA

South Africa

Sukuma coal mine

Canyon Coal

N

2023

7

TC

LA

South Africa

Thuso coal project

Canyon Coal

N

2023

1.2

TC

LA

Ukraine

Lubel

N

..

5.2

CC

LA

United Kingdom

Lochinvar

N

..

1.4

CC

LA

United Kingdom

Woodhouse Colliery

N

2024

2.5

CC

LA

United States

Blue Creek No. 1

E

2025

4.3

CC

LA

Thungela Resources
LimitedBlack Royalty
Minerals

Lubel Coal
Company
New Age
Exploration
West Cumbria
MiningWarrior Met Coal

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Coal 2022

Proposed
full
capacity(Mtpa)

Resource

StatusCountry

Project

CompanyType

Earliest
proposed
start-up

United States

Elk Creek

Ramaco Carbon
LCC

E

2023

0.9

CC

MA

United States

ItmannConsol Energy

N

2022

0.6

CC

MA

United States

Longview

N

2023

3

CC

MA

United States

RAM Mine

N

2023

0.5

CC

LA

United States

River View Henderson
Portal 1

N

2025

..

TC

LA

North Central
Ressources, LLC
Ramaco Resources,
Inc.
Alliance Coal LLC

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Coal 2022

Annexes

Coal 2022

Definitions

Pulverised coal injection (PCI) coal: A high-quality steam coal injected into a
blast furnace to reduce coke consumption.

Coal: A solid, combustible fossil sedimentary rock. Coal comes from buried
vegetation transformed by the action of strong pressure and hightemperatures over millions of years.

Metallurgical coal: Refers to coking coal, semi-soft coal and pulverised coal
Injection coal in this report. Although anthracite is often used formetallurgical purposes, it is classified as thermal coal in this report.

Coal rank: The degree of transformation from the original plant source. It isloosely related to the age of the coal and is mainly determined from random
reflectance of the vitrinite, one of coal’s organic components. The ranks ofcoal, in decreasing order of transformation from high to low, are: anthracite,
bituminous coal, sub-bituminous coal, lignite and peat. This reportdistinguishes between hard coal (anthracite, bituminous and sub-bituminouscoal) and lignite, while peat is not considered.

Run-of-mine coal: Raw coal as it is mined previous to any processing.
Tonne of coal equivalent (tce): A unit of energy widely used in theinternational coal industry. It is defined as 7 million kilocalories (kcal).
Therefore, the relationship between tce and physical tonnes depends on the
net calorific value of the coal. One tonne of coal with a net calorific value of 7000 kcal per kilogramme (kcal/kg) represents 1 tce.
Coal mining: A technique used to remove coal from a natural deposit. Coal
deposits in the Earth’s crust occur at various depths and seam configurations,which determine the mining method used. Generally, deep deposits aremined underground and shallow deposits are exploited through opencast
mines. The strip ratio largely determines whether an opencast mine is
profitable or not.

Coal classification: Refers to a range of coal age, composition and otherproperties. Many classifications are used around the world with the main
parameter being the coal rank, supplemented by its intended use, i.e.
thermal or metallurgical applications.
Coal quality: Represents a variety of properties exhibited by coal when it isused. Calorific value and impurity content are the main parameters defining
the quality of thermal coal, whereas caking properties, resistance andimpurity content are the distinguishing characteristics for coking coal.

Strip ratio: The overburden or waste material removed, usually expressed as
cubic metres per tonne of coal extracted. High strip ratios make opencast
mining unprofitable.

Coking coal: High-quality coal to produce coke used in blast furnaces to makepig iron. Coking coal and metallurgical coal are terms sometimes usedinterchangeably.
Semi-soft coal: High-quality steam coal mixed with coking coal to produce
coke for blast furnaces.

Opencast mining: A method in which the overburden is first drilled, thenblasted, and when the deposit is accessible, coal is removed in a similar way
to the overburden. To remove the coal, power shovels, conveyor belts andtrucks may be used, as well as some extremely large machinery such as
draglines and bucket wheels. Opencast mining is usually less labour-intensive
than underground mining, but has higher consumable costs, e.g. for tyres,diesel and explosives. Generally, opencast methods imply greater
environmental impact than underground mining.

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Thermal (or steam) coal: Refers to hard coal used for purposes other thanmetallurgy in this report.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Underground mining: A method in which access to coal seams is gained
through underground shafts, galleries and tunnels. Although there are many
ways to mine an underground deposit, coal is usually stripped by automatic
shearers or continuous mechanical miners using either short/long walls or
room-and-pillar exploitations. Underground mining is generally more labourintensive and requires higher capital investments than opencast mining.

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Coal washing/upgrading: A process in which impurities (i.e. ash, moisture)are partially removed from raw coal to produce a higher-quality coal.

Annexes

Coal 2022

Regional groupings

European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech
Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary,
Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland,
Portugal, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain and Sweden.

Africa: Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Republic of the Congo(Congo), Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Eritrea,
Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Libya, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique,
Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, United
Republic of Tanzania (Tanzania), Togo, Tunisia, Zambia, Zimbabwe and other
African countries and territories.

Middle East: Bahrain, Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Iraq, Israel, Jordan,
Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic (Syria),
the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
North America: Canada, Mexico and United States.

Asia Pacific: Southeast Asia regional grouping and Australia, Bangladesh, thePeople’s Republic of China and Hong Kong (China), Chinese Taipei, India,
Japan, Korea, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea),
Mongolia, Nepal, New Zealand, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and other Asian countries
and territories.

Southeast Asia: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s
Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore,
Thailand and Viet Nam. These countries are all members of the Associationof Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Central and South America: Argentina, Plurinational State of Bolivia (Bolivia),
Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Curaçao, Dominican Republic,
Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua,
Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Bolivarian
Republic of Venezuela (Venezuela), and other Central and South Americancountries and territories.
China: The People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.
Eurasia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation (Russia), Tajikistan, Turkmenistan,
Ukraine and Uzbekistan

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Europe: European Union regional grouping and Albania, Bosnia andHerzegovina, Iceland, Gibraltar, Kosovo, Montenegro, Norway, Republic ofNorth Macedonia, Serbia, Switzerland, Republic of Türkiye and the United
Kingdom.

Abbreviations and acronyms

Units of measureAPI

Argus/McCloskey’s Coal Price Indexbtbillion tonnes

ARA

Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Antwerp

GW

gigawatt

CCUS

carbon capture, utilisation and storage

kcal

kilocalorie

CFR

cost and freightkg

kilogramme

CIF

cost, insurance and freightkm

kilometreCRU

CRU Groupktkilotonnes

CV

calorific value

MBtu

million British thermal units

EIA

Energy Information Administration (United States)

Mt

million tonnes

EU

European Union

Mtpa

million tonnes per annum

FOB

free on boardMW

megawatt

GDP

gross domestic product

t

tonne

IEA

International Energy Agency

TWhterawatt hours

met

metallurgicalOECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

LNG

liquefied natural gas

TTF

Title Transfer Facility (Netherlands)

US

United States

USD

United States dollar

y-o-y

year-on-year
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Coal 2022

Annexes

Coal 2022

Acknowledgements, contributors and credits
This publication has been prepared by the Gas, Coal and Power
Markets Division (GCP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The analysis was led and co-ordinated by Carlos Fernández
Alvarez, acting Head of GCP. Arne Lilienkamp, Jonas Zinke andCarlos Fernández Alvarez are the authors. Keisuke Sadamori,Director of the Energy Markets and Security (EMS) Directorate,
provided expert guidance and advice.
Other IEA colleagues provided important contributions, including
Yasmina Abdelilah, Heymi Bahar, Louis Chambeau, Joel Couse,
Laura Cozzi, Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil, Tim Gould, Astha Gupta,
Tetsuro Hattori, Ciarán Healy, Martin Husek, YuJin Jeong, Javier
Jorquera, Akos Losz, Gergely Molnár, Jinseok Rho and Hiroyasu
Sakaguchi.
Timely and comprehensive data from the Energy Data Centre were
fundamental to the report. Laura Martínez and Nicola Dragui
provided invaluable support during the process. Thanks go also to
the IEA China desk, particularly Rebecca McKimm, Yang Zhiyu andYang Biqing, for their research on China.
The IEA Communication and Digital Office (CDO) provided
production and launch support. Particular thanks go to Jad
Mouawad, Head of CDO, and his team: Astrid Dummond, Jethro
Mullen, Greg Viscusi, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin and Therese Walsh.
Diane Munro edited the report.

CRU provided invaluable data and information for this report.
Thanks to Dmitry Popov for his support and suggestions.
Our gratitude goes to the IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB)
for their support.
Special thanks to the international experts who have provided input
during the process and/or reviewed the draft of the report. They
include: Kevin Ball (Whiteheaven Coal), Mick Buffier (Glencore),
Michael Caravaggio (EPRI), Rodrigo Echeverri (Noble Resources),
Nikki Fisher (Thungela Resources), Justin Flood (Delta Electricity),
Fabio Gabrieli (Skatkraft), Liu Yunhui (Tsinghua University), Patricia
Naulita Lumban Gaol (Adaro), Lukazs Mazanek (Polska Groupa
Gornicza), Peter Morris (Minerals Council of Australia), Hans
Wilhem Schiffer (RWE), Paul Simons (Yale University) and Akira
Yabumoto (J-POWER).
The individuals and organisations that contributed to this report are
not responsible for any opinion or judgement it contains. Any error
or omission is the sole responsibility of the IEA.
For questions and comments, please contact Carlos Fernández
Alvarez (Carlos.Fernandez@iea.org).

PAGE | 135

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Our gratitude goes to the Institute of Energy Economics at the
University of Cologne (EWI) for sharing their extensive coal
expertise and modelling insights.

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