16th AIM International Workshop

Asia LCS scenarios and actions:
How to achieve sustainable low‐carbon society
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
Tsukuba, Japan, February 19‐21, 2011

Bundit Limmeechokchai
Pornphimol Winyuchakrit
Artite Pattanapongchai

Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology
Thammasat University, THAILAND To propose measures for avoiding climate change, andprecursors to zero carbon society and renewable-energy
economy.
 To discuss the possibility of developing a low-carbon
society in Thailand.
 To create awareness among Thailand’s authorities,
government, stakeholders, and communities for lowcarbon Thailand.

HH size

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10-

3.5
Person/HH

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0

1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030

0.5
0.0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

No. of HH
40
35
Millions HH

Millions person

Population

30
25
20
15
105
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2030

2005

- NESDB- DOPA- NESDB

- TTP
- DCA
- DLT

Population
No. of HH
GDP (mil Baht)
Gross output (mil Baht)
Primary industry (mil Baht)
Secondary industry (mil Baht)
Tertiary industry (mil Baht)Floor space for commercial (mil m2)
Passenger transport demand (mil p-km)
Freight transport demand (mil t-km)
Remarks: Primary industry

60,991,000

0.49%

2030
68,815,004

19,016,784

2.6 %

36,265,390

8,016,595

5.5‐ 5.0%

30,802,306
68,456,651

18,755,884
1,116,621

3.9%

2,801,864

11,453,496

5.1%

38,008,931

6,185,767

6.4%

27,645,856

88

394

191,520

216,088

188,524

589,859

 Agriculture, Mining, and Construction

Secondary industry  Textiles, Food & beverage, Chemical, Metallic,Non-metallic, and Others
Tertiary industry

 Service sector

Thailand’s RE & EE Technologies

Residential

Commercial

Industry

Passenger transport

Final Energy Demand (ktoe)

Freight transport

164,86321%
5%57,327

49%9%
16%

2005

2030 BAU

Remarks: BAU is Business as Usual
CM is Countermeasure

128,963
35,895 ktoe
22%
22%
3%
50%
9%
16%
2030 CM

Residential

Commercial

Industry

Passenger transport

GHG Emissions (kt-CO2)

Freight transport

563,73019%
5%185,98349%

324,170
25%
3%
47%

18%
2005

10%

15%
10%

2030 BAU

2030 CMRemarks: BAU is Business as Usual
CM is Countermeasure239,560 kt-CO243%

GHG Emissions (kt-CO2)

563,73038%
33%

185,9832005

2030 BAU

Remarks: BAU is Business as Usual
CM is Countermeasure2030 CM

Power: 91,615 kt-CO2
Freight: 23,118 kt-CO2
Passenger: 15,159 kt-CO2
Industry: 79,984 kt-CO2
Commercial: 18,734 kt-CO2
Residential: 10,950 kt-CO2

 Efficiency improvement in the Power generation sector
 T&D loss will improve to be 5%.
 Technology transfer: New power plant technology will beadded such as IGCC and CCGT  Eff. Improve to be 48% and56%.
 Fuel switching: Increasing share of RE and NE in PDP 2010.
Fuel type

Share in 2030 BAU

Share in 2030 CM

Natural gas

71.4

39.0

Oil

6.6

-

Coal

15.1

23.6

Hydro

4.4

20.5

Nuclear-11.2

Renewable energy

2.5

5.7

Ref: Thailand’s Power Development Plan, PDP 2010.

 Energy efficiency improvement in Households (Electric)
 Efficiency improvement by 30%
 Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030
 Energy efficiency improvement in Households (Non-electric)
 Efficiency improvement- by 30% in wood stove- by 5% in LPG stove Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030
Ref: Thailand Research Fund. 2007. Research Programme on Policy Research for Promoting theDevelopment and Utilization of Renewable Energy and the Improvement of Energy
Efficiency in Thailand.

EEI (Elec.)
38%
Supply side
56%
EEI (Non-elec.)
6%

GHG emissions (kt-CO2)

24,85913,909 (56%)

44.5%

1,620 (6%)
9,330 (38%)

55,83830,97920,8892005

2030 BAU

2030 CM

EEI (power sector)

EEI (non electrical app.)

EEI (electrical app.)

GHG emissions

 Energy efficiency improvement in Buildings
 Efficiency improvement by 30%
 Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030
 Energy efficiency improvement in Buildings (BuildingCodes)
 Building insulation
 Building envelope Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030
Ref: Thailand Research Fund. 2007. Research Programme on Policy Research for Promoting theDevelopment and Utilization of Renewable Energy and the Improvement of Energy
Efficiency in Thailand.

Supply side
65%
Bldg. Insulation
4%

GHG emissions (kt-CO2)

EEI (Elec.)
31%

53,63034,896 (65%)

52.9%2,350 (4%)
16,384 (31%)

101,391
47,761
22,6862005

2030 BAU

2030 CMGHG emissions

EEI (electrical app.)

Building insulation

EEI (power sector) Energy efficiency improvement in Industry (Electric)

 Efficiency improvement
SystemMotorOthers

Lighting

EEI

10%

20%

30%

 Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030
 Energy efficiency improvement in Industry (Non-electric)
 Efficiency improvement by 30%
 Fuel switching in Industry

 Reduce the penetration level in coal and oil by 50%
 Replace the penetration level remaining in biomass and LPG.

Supply side
35%

EEI (Nonelec.)
21%
Fuel switching
35%

122,492
GHG emissions (kt-CO2)

EEI (Elec.)
10%

42,508 (35%)

44.4%

41,336 (35%)
26,268 (21%)
12,380 (10%)

276,045
153,554
86,0342005

2030 BAU

2030 CM

EEI (power sector)

Fuel switching

EEI (non electrical app.)

EEI (electrical app.)

GHG emissions

 Fuel economy improvement (FEI) in Transport sector
 Efficiency improvement by 30% in Penetration rates up to 100% in 2030
 Travel demand management (TDM) in Transport sector
 Efficiency improvement by 7.38%

 Using (eco-driving, bus priority, and non-motorizedtransport)

Ref: Pongthanaisawan, J. 2007. Road transport energy demand analysis and energy saving
potentials in Thailand. Asian Journal of Energy and Environment
Kuwattanachai, N. 2009. Hybrid and Electric cars. TRF Newsletter.

 Fuel switching in Transport sector
 CNG engines will increase by 20% in 2030
 Hybrid engines can save energy consumption by 30%

 Modal shift in Transport sector
SVPassenger

Freight

LV

Bus

Motorbike

Bike

Walk

Train

Plane

Ship

2005

24.3

6.7

42.3

14.6

0.8

10.7

0.2

0.4

-2030

15.0

5.0

20.0

10.0

12.8

25.0

12.0

0.2

-

2005

2.2

80.8

2.3

0.02

14.8

2030

2.2

58.2

24.9

0.02

14.8----

Ref: Pongthanaisawan, J. 2007. Road transport energy demand analysis and energy saving potentials inThailand. Asian Journal of Energy and Environment
Kuwattanachai, N. 2009. Hybrid and Electric cars. TRF Newsletter.

FuelSwitching
19%
Modalshift
52%

FEI
27%

GHG emissions (kt-CO2)

Supply side2%

15,45259.7%

8,087 (52%)
4,151 (27%)

25,87522,933

10,4232005

2030 BAU

GHG emissions
Modal shift
EEI (power sector)

293 (2%)
2,921 (19%)

2030 CM
FEIFuel switching

Fuel switching
31%

FEI
28%

Modal shift
41%

GHG emissions (kt-CO2)

Supply side
0.04%

23,12722.1%
104,581
81,45433,4412005

2030 BAU

GHG emissions
Modal shift
EEI (power sector)

2030 CMFEI
Fuel switching

9 (0.04%)
7,062 (31%)
9,469 (41%)
6,588 (28%)

2%
3%
14%
3%
4%

10,95018,73416%
GHG emissions
Residential
Commercial
Industry
Passenger transport
Freight transport
Power generation

GHG
Emission
324,170

79,98415,15923,11891,615

Unit: kt-CO2

ActionGHG Reduction (kt‐CO2)(%)

1. Energy efficiency improvement (EEI) in households

10,9504.6%‐ EEI in electric devices‐ EEI in non‐electric devices
2. Energy efficiency improvement in buildings
3. Building codes
4. Energy efficiency improvement in industries‐ EEI in electric devices‐ EEI in non‐electric devices
5. Fuel switching in industry
6. Fuel economy improvement in transportation‐ Passenger transport‐ Freight transport
7. Fuel switching in transportation‐ Passenger transport‐ Freight transport
8. Modal shift in transportation‐ Passenger transport‐ Freight transport

9,330
1,620
16,3842,350
38,64812,38026,26841,336
10,739
4,151
6,588
9,983
2,921
7,062
17,5568,087
9,469

3.9%
0.7%
6.8%
1.0%
16.1%
5.1%
11.0%
17.3%
4.5%
1.7%
2.8%
4.2%
1.2%
3.0%
7.3%
3.3%
4.0%

9. Efficiency improvement and fuel switching in the power sector

91,614

38.2%

Total GHG mitigation in 2030

239,560

100.0%

Total GHG emissions in the 2030 BAU scenario

563,730 kt‐CO2

Total GHG emissions in the 2030 CM scenario

324,170 kt‐CO2

45,000
40,000

Biomass Potential
Recorded databy DEDE

Forecasted
data by SIIT
ExSS estimatedPotential

Primary Energy Supply (ktoe)

35,00030,000LCS ExSS
Primary Energy Supply

25,000Present status
20,00015,00010,000
5,000
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Energy type
Electricity
Solar
Wind
Small hydroBiomass
Biogas
Waste
Total
ThermalSolar
Biomass
Biogas
Waste
Total
Bioenergy
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Total
Required energy (ktoe)
Required renewable energy
RE share (%)
NGV (M.cu./Day)
Alternative energy used (ktoe)
AE share (%)

PotentialMW
50,000
1,600
700
4,400
190
400
57,290
ktoe
154
7,400
600
8,154
ML/day
3.00
4.20
7.20

Existing
2008‐2011
MWGWh
MWGWh
38.64655
66
5.13
10115
231
67
293
165
722
1,644
11,5212,800 19,622
79.6
573
60
432
5.6
44.8
78
624
1,840 12,487.8
3,273 21,697
ktoe
0.5
3,071
201
1.09
3,273
ML/dayML/day
1.24
3.00
1.56
3.00
2.80
6.00
66,248
4,237
6.4%
147
393.0

ktoe

2023‐2030
MW
GWh
600
720
960
1,934
390
1,708
4,400 30,835
144
1,036
192
1,536
6,686 37,769

6
13
43
1,463
27
35
1,587
ktoe
5
3,660
470
15
4,150
ktoe
ML/day
805
10.8
950
5.40
1755
16.20
70,3007,492
10.6%
3,469800
10,961
16.6%

ktoe
67.2
106.8
102
2,319
64.8
86.4
2,746
ktoe
45.6
7,400
600
428,088
ktoe
2,936
1,698
4,634
112,868
15,46813.7%
7,064
22,53219.96%

 The GHG emissions in 2030 BAU scenario without
mitigation measures will increase to 563,730 kt‐CO2.
 By adopting CMs in all sectors, GHG emissions can be
decreased to 324,170 kt‐CO2 or by 42.5%.
 If those policies are planned in early stage, Thailand
will be able to serve as a model for LCS.
 However, to increase more CO2 mitigation, more CMs& leapfrogging technologies are needed undernational appropriate mechanism.

1st Thailand’s LCS Scenario 2030 Brochure

1st Draft, Apr 2010

2nd Draft, July 2010

FINAL Thailand LCS
November 2010

1st Thailand’s LCS Scenario 2030 Brochure
The 3 versions of Thailand’s LCS brochures had been
distributed and disseminated in Thailand.
1. Thailand Greenhouse gas management
Organization (TGO).
2. Climate change focal point of Thailand: ONEP.
3. Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA).
4. Energy Planning and Policy Office (EPPO), MOEN.
5. Department of Alternetive Energy Developmentand Efficiency (DEDE), MOEN.
6. Research Institutes & Universities.
7. NGOs.
8. Privates/Business.
Note: TGO & MOEN are looking towards 2030, instead of 2022.

1st Thailand’s LCS Scenario 2030 Brochure
The 2nd version of Thailand’s LCS brochures had been
distributed and disseminated during CTC2010
conference, organized by TGO during 19‐21 August 2010.

Thailand’s LCS scenario development was presented inCTC2010. In addition, 2 papers on Thailand LCS were alsopresented.

TGO provided one session on LCS Scenario:Methodology, cases of Japan & Thailand

CTC201021 August 2010MOU between NIES and SIIT‐TU
Low‐Carbon Scenario Development in Thailand

Asia LCS scenarios and actions:
How to achieve sustainable low‐carbon society

Dissemination & ExSS Workshop in Thailand
Low‐carbon society model capacity building workshop
Bridge simulation scenarios and sustainable LCS policy
implementation using AIM (Asia‐Pacific Integrated Model)
Organized by TGO, SIIT‐TU, JGSEE, NIES

November 19, 2010. Pullman King Power Hotel, Bangkok

Low‐Carbon Society Model Capacity Building Workshop
Objective:
1. To introduce LCS scenario.
2. To operate LCS model. (ExSS tool)
3. To communicate among policy makers, researchers, and businesson feasible LCS development.

Prof. Matsuoka

NIESTGOSIIT‐TU

Prof. Ram Shrestha

TGO Board, Dr Kitti

TGO NIES Kyoto NIES TGO TGOTGO Local Authority

AITSIIT‐TU

iGES

Low‐Carbon Society Model Capacity Building Workshop

LCS methodology

LCS Thailand, SIIT & AIT

Prof. Ho (MTU)

Mr. Boyd (IRDA)

Dr Savitri (KMUTT)LCS India, Prof. AashishChair, TGO Board

Dr Kainuma Dr Komi

ExSS Training

ExSS Training

ExSS Training

ExSS TrainingLow‐Carbon Society Model Capacity Building Workshop

ExSS TrainingExSS Training

Bridge simulation & LCS Policy
Closing Remarks

Prof Nishioka (iGES & NIES)
Bridge simulation & LCS Policy

Dr Kainuma Dr Sirin (KMUTT)Thailand’s Low‐Carbon Society Model Capacity Building Workshop
http://2050.nies.go.jp/sympo/101119/

Proceeding of LCSThailand’s LCS Brochure in the TGO Homepage is available at
http://www.tgo.or.th/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=441&Itemid=2

2nd Thailand’s Low‐Carbon Society Scenario‐ Improved analysis of2030CM to 2050CM
scenario using ExSS tool.
‐ 2nd LCS 2050CM
Scenario brochure usingAIM/EndUse for thepower sector with carbontax.
‐ AIM/CGE for 2050 CM
Scenario.

Coal Existing

CoalLignite Existing
Coal_New1
Coal_New2(Coal Mix)

E＿ZCOL

Coal CHP Existing

DieselEL_DIE_Existing1(Diesel Mix)

AIM/Enduse
Thailand’s Power Sector

E＿ZDIE

EL_DIE_Existing2
EL_NGS_Existing1

GasOilEL_NGS_Existing2
EL_NGS_Existing3
EL_LNG_NEW
EL_Gas CHP_Existing(Natural gasmix)

Net electricity

EL_HFO_Existing
EL_HFO_CHP_EXT(HFO Mix)

Hydro large

Hydro, Large Exist ing

Hydro small

Hydro, Small, Existing

WindWind, ExistingBiomass

Biomass, Existing

Geothermal

Geothermal , Existing

Nuclear

Nuclear, New

BiogasBiogas, Existing

MSW

MSW, Existing

SOL

Solar PV, Existing

EnergyDevice

E＿ZNGS

EL_LST_EXT

Electricity

E＿ZHFO

38

Service/Energy

DeviceService/Energy

Service/Energy

DeviceService/EnergyAIM/Enduse
Thailand’s Reasidential Sector

RCL

Air Conditioner
Incandescent
RLT

ELY_R
FluorescentElectric Appliances

ROT

Cooling, lighting, Electric appliances
ELY_R

Water Heater

Hot water
ELY_R

RHW

Microwave
SOL_R

MSW_R

Kitchen stove

WOD_R

Kitchen stove

LPG_R

Kitchen stove

CHA_R

Kitchen stove

Water HeaterRCKCooking
39AIM/Enduse
Thailand’s Commercial Sector
ELY_SC

Cooling

Air conditioner

Cooling system

General lighting and electric appliance
Fluorescent
General lighting
ELY_C

IncandescentElectric applianceElectric appliance

ELY_C

Microwave/
Kitchen stove

NGS_C

Kitchen stove
Cooking

OLL_C

Kitchen stove

OLK_C

Kitchen stove

Cooking40

AIM/Enduse
Thailand’s TransportSector (T‐1)

Fuel process
OLG

Gasoline
T_ZOLG

BFOT

Bio fuel

EnergyOLD

DieselBFOT

Bio fuel

T_ZOLD

Passenger train, passenger ship, passenger air
Vehicle‐Gsl.EXTELYTVehicle‐
Gsl.NEW

T_ZOLG

CarFrg.Vehicle‐
Light,Ele.New

Sky train

Frg.Vehicle‐
Light,Gsin.EXT
T_ZOLD

Vehicle‐LPG.EXT
Vehicle‐LPG.NEW

Frg.Vehicle‐
Light,Ele.EXT

OLH

Frg.Vehicle‐
Light,Gsin.EXT

Passenger ship

Pss.ship.
Heavy oil NEW
Pss.ship.
Heavy oil EXT

Car transport

OLJ

Pss.Air.
Jet Oil EXT
Pss.Air.
Jet Oil NEW

Air transport41

AIM/Enduse
Thailand’s Transport Sector (T‐2)
Freight Vehicle

Passenger train, passenger ship, passenger air

Frg.Vehicle‐
Light,Gsin.EXT
Train‐
DIE.EXT

Frg.Vehicle‐
Light,Gsin.NEW

Train transport

T_ZOLD
Train‐
DIE.NEW

Freight car

T_ZOLD
Frg.Vehicle‐
NGS.EXT
Frg.Vehicle‐
NGS.EXT

Frg.ship.
Heavy oil NEW

Freight ship

HFO
Frg.ship.
Heavy oil EXT42

COL

Coal for fuel

OILI

Oil for fuel

NGSI

Gas for fuel

CRN

Renewable for fuel

Fuel Making

Purchased
electricity
Own thermal
powerElectricity Production

HYD

Hydro power

NGSI

Gas co‐generation

OtherProcess

IF_ZFUL

Gas co‐generation

ELYI
IF_ZFUL

IF_ZFUL

Boiler+IF_ZSTMIF_ZSTM

Steam Making Process
IF_ZFULIF_ZELY

OthersIF_ZSTMIF_ZELY

Other heat
Other heat

IF_ZELY

Other heatw/eff. air condition
Other electricity

Direct Heat

Other electricity

Conventional furnace
IF_ZFUL

Furnace

IF_ZSTM

StreamStream

Advance furnace

AIM/Enduse
Thailand’s Industrial Sector(Food Industry)

Electric Motor
Conventional motor

IF_ZFUL

Inverter control motor

Electricity

Advance motor

43

COL

Coal for fuel

OILI

Oil for fuel

NGSI

Gas for fuel

CLYI

Purchased electricity

CRN

Renewable for fuel

WHET

Exhaust heat

IF_ZFUL

Owen steam power

IYC_ZFUL

Otherprocess

Electricity Production
OtherProcess
IYC_ZELY

Fuel making process

Grinding process
IYC_ZELY

Multi

YLM

IYC_ZELY

Burning process
XXX

Kiln

IYC_ZFULXXX

Coal mill

XXX

High eff
ClinkercoolerIYC_ZFUL

Finishing process

IYC_ZELY
Turbo mill

IYC_ZELYXXX

Pre‐grinder

XXX

clinker

Flowcontrol

YSL

Flowcontrol

YLC_ADOT

Flowcontrol

IYC_ZELYIYC_ZELY
Slaggrinder mill

XXX

Raw cement

High eff
separator

XXX

Other

Cementproducts

Non energy use
OILIN

Non‐energy use

Cement products

AIM/Enduse
Thailand’s Industrial Sector(Cement Industry)Thailland’s Industrial Sector: AIM/Enduse

IMS
INM
ICH
IPP
IFD
ITW
IFM
IOM
WOD

Metal & Iron and steel
Non-metal
Chemical & PetrochemicalsPaper, Pulp and Printing
Food Product, Beverage and Tobacco
Textiles, Wearing Apparel and Leather
Frabricated metals & Machinery
Other Manufacturing
Wood and wood product45

S‐6, MOEJ