VIETNAM AND CLIMATE CHANGE:POTENTIAL FOR LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENTDr. Tran Thuc,Vietnam Institue of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment

(2) NATIONAL TARGET PROGRAM
TO RESPOND TO CC
Identify the extent of CC and assess CC
impacts on sector, area and locality
Identify measures to respond to CC
Promote scientific and technologicalactivities to respond to CC
Enhance organizational structure,
institutional capacity and development andimplementation of policies
Enhance public awareness and develop
human resources
Promote international cooperation
Mainstream CC issues into socioeconomic, sectoral and local development
strategies, plans and planning
Develop and implement action plans ofsectors and localities to respond to CC

Strategic objectives:
Assess CC impacts onsectors and regions
and develop feasible
action plans toeffectively respond toCC in the short andlong-term to ensuresustainable
development of VN.
To take opportunities
to develop towards a
low-carbon economy,
and to join theinternational
community’s efforts inmitigating CC.

CLIMATE CHANGE, SEA LEVEL RISESCENARIOS FOR VIETNAM
MRI/AGCM Model - JapanPRECIS Model+ 2.0 – 2.5 oC

Change in Temperature

Change in Rainfall

A2scenario+ 2.5 – 3.0oC
IMHEN copyright 2009

Inundation
SLR:
1.0 m
Inundation: 473 km2(23%)

SLR 1.0 m

SLR:1.00 m
Inundation: 15100 km2(38%)

Projected annual total global emissions (billion
tons of CO2 equivalent)

Involves a portfolio of cross sector
adaptation and mitigation measures

Low Carbon Studies: Focused on high GHG emitters Determined GHG mitigation potential
Source:
Assessedfinancing needs and other requirements
Workshop on Economics of Low Carbon Ha Noi, January 20, 2011

Low Emission Development Study1)

National development goals and objectives

2)

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory andEconomic Data3)Long-term Business as Usual (BAU) Economicand Emissions Projection

4)

Alternative Pathway of Emission Mitigation

5)

Prioritized Actions and Implementation Plans

6)

Implementation and Financing Plans

Sectoral GDP growth projections
SectorGDP growth, of which:Industry
Agriculture

2011 -2020
7.2
8.2
3.0

2021 -2030
7.0
7.5
2.5

Projected structure of GDP by sector
SectorGDP , of which
Industry
Agriculture

2010100
44.7
17.3

2020
100
47.8
12.5

2030
100
48.7
48.7

National developmentgoals and objectives
Livestock number projections
Breed
Beef cattle
Dairy cattle
BuffaloPig

2010
7.8
0.2
2.9
29.9

2020
12.5
0.5
2.9
34.8

2030
13.5
0.7
2.9
49.0

End-use energy demand projections

Unit: KTOE

Population growth projection
Period2010 - 2020
2020 - 2030

Growth rate
1.0
0.7

Projected forest coverage and forest land
area
Forest type
2010
2020
2030
Natural forest
Planted forest
Savannah
Total

9.7
1.9
3.4
11.6

9.7
4.4
1.0
14.1

9.7
4.8
0.2
14.5

SectorIndustry
Transportation
Agriculture
Residential
Commercial/instituti
onalTotal

2010
14,176
9,404
738
16,8742020
27,846
16,317905
23,6482030
48,55629,088
1,112
37,175

2,346

5,416

9,895

43,53874,131 125,825

National GHG Inventory 2000
GHG emissions by sub-sector in energy
Sub-ssector
Enteric fermentation
Manure management
Rice cultivation
Agricultural soils
Burning of savannas
Burning of agricultural residues
Total

CH368
164

N O CONOx

9.97
59.1

1,782
45.8
1.23 261
1.39 1,214

4.46
50.28

CO e
7,730
3,447
37,42914,219
590
1,672

2,383

48.5 1,476

54.7

65,090GHG emissions from agriculture
Emission source
Fuel combustion- Energy industries- Manufacturing industries- Transportation- Commercial/Institutional sector- Residential sector- Agriculture/Forestry/Aquaculture- Others
Fugitive emissions- Solid fuel- Gasoline and Oil
Total

2000
Emission%

11,205
15,113
11,946
2,971
3,933
1,384
1,174

21.2
28.6
22.6
5.6
7.5
2.6
2.2

1,874
3,169.
52,773

3.6
6.1
100

%
11.9
5.3
57.5
21.8
0.9
2.6
100

Unit: thousand tonnes

GHG emissions from LULUCF
Source/sink

forest woody
biomass stocks

Emissions ofCO0Forest and grassland conversion
Abandonment ofManaged Lands
CO2 uptake/emission

40,665

Total

Removals of COCHNO-49,830

CO e-49,830
140 0.96

43,9090-7,330-7,33046,943-18,588

28,35587,608-775,748

140 0.96

15,104

National GHG Inventory 2000
National GHG inventory by sector in 2000
SectorEnergyIndustrial processes
Agriculture
LULUCF
Waste
Total

CO
45,90010,0050
11,860067,765

Unit: thousand tonnes
CH308
02,383
140
331
3,164

NO
1.27
048.5
0.96
3.11
53.8

CO e
52,773
10,00565,09015,104
7,925
150,899

Percentage
35.0
6.6
43.1
10.0
5.3
100

National GHG Emission projection
GHG emission projections
SectorEnergyAgriculture
LULUCFTotal

2010
113
65.8
-9.7
169

2020
251
69.5
-20.1
300

Unit: million tonnes of CO2e2030
471
72.9
-27.9
516

Abatement Potential
Energy sector

Agricultural sector

LULUCF

Source: 2 Communication to UNFCCC

1. High potential at low cost, but
2. Implementation and Financing
Plans??

DIFFICULTIES IN THE IMPLEMENTATION
1) Poor awareness (scope, level, measures) at all levels
and sectors (from officials to communities);2) Weak coordination for mainstreaming CC innational/local policies & plans due to"mainstreaming overload";3) Lack of tools and methodologies for policydevelopment;
4) Lack of knowledge.

Work on Progress1) National Scientific Program on Climate Change
2) National Strategy on Climate Change• National Action Plan.
• Strategy on Green Growth.
Work Plan 2011
Output 3.2: Mitigation measures and investments• Indicator: Related material for LCE developed and indentified• Baseline: Studies on LCE has just been started in Vietnam• Target: Comprehensive methodology for study on LCE for VNActivity result 3.2.1: Identify opportunities to develop towards a LCE• Indentify methodology for study on LCE for VN• Development of BAU emission projection• Cost - benefit assessment; Technological need assessment• Mitigation options

THANK YOU