1Kyoto University

20th AIM International Workshop
23th – 25th January, 2015
NIES, Tsukuba, JAPAN

Recent Progress ofAir Pollution Modellingfor co-benefit estimation
Gakuji KURATA
Kyoto University

2Kyoto University

Reduction by
CO2 measure.
Additional
Reduction by
CH4 + BC measure.
Quick Responseof SCLP reduction

Shindell et al., (2012)• Recently, the contribution of Short-lived Climate Pollutants (such as Black
Carbon, Ozone, CH4) to global warming is identified about 0.5 ⁰C• And, a study said that the rapid reduction of CH4 and BC can reduce thetemperature increase around 0.5 ⁰C soon after the reduction.

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Kyoto University

Global Burden of Disease (China/India)(a) China

3(b) India

Burden of disease attributable to 15 leading risk factors in 2010 ( % of DALY)
Source : IHME http://www.healthdata.org/

Estimation of current and future emission of air pollutants from
Residential sector is very important.

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Kyoto University

Residential
Energy Use
Electricity
Gas
Coalkerosene
Biomass

Cooking
Hot water
Heating
Cooling

ClimateCO2BCOC
NOx

Lighting

VOC

Appliances

PM2.5

Outdoor
Air Pollution

HealthIndoor (Household)
Air Pollution

5

Kyoto University

South AsiaFinal thermal energy demandin Frozen Efficiency Scenario

China andSome East Asia

(Source : IPCC AR5)

Kyoto University

Outline of the study

66

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Kyoto University

Severe air pollution occurs not only at Beijing city, many othercities in China undergo the similar pollution.
 Kyoto Univ. and ERI, China are evaluating the effects of provincial
Pollution prevention action Plan of four province ( Sichuan,Shaanxi, Hubei and Jiangsu ) toward 2017.
Chinese National Target of Particulate Matter

Target Area

Targetyear

TargetWhole China

2017

10% PM10 concentration Reduction compare to 2012

Whole China

2017

Increase the number of “Healthy Day ( < 35μg/m3)”

Beijing, Tianjin andHubei

2017

Reduce PM2.5 concentration by 25%, and less than 60μg/m3

Yangzi Delta (Shanghai)

2017

Reduce PM2.5 concentration by 20%

Pearl River Delta(Guangzhou)

2017

Reduce PM2.5 concentration by 15%

Kyoto University

Detail schematic diagram of models

889Kyoto University

Model Simulation to quantify the contribution of theemission from Residential sector in Asian region
WRF
Input/setting
CMAQ
input/setting• Version: 3.4.1• Input Met.: NCEP FNL 1x1°6hr• Cloud Physics: Simple ice scheme• Cumulus Param.: Kain-Fritsch Scheme• Land Surface: Noah land-surface model• Version: 5.0.1• Chemistry: SAPRC-99 Aero5• Boundary cond.: MOZART4• Biogenic emission: MEGAN 2.0.4• Anthropogenic emis.: INTEX-B, TRACE-P

Case

Description

Met. Field

2012
Emission

Base year Run, (JAN – DEC, 2012)
Using emission data of 2012

2013

2017
EmissionTarget year Run (JAN – DEC, 2017)
Using emission data of 20172013

910Kyoto UniversityBeijing

Grid size =26.6 kmShaanxi
Xi’an

JiangsuNanjing
Wuhan

ChengduShanghai

HubeiSichuan

11Kyoto University

Sichuan province.
Target Area

Targetyear

TargetWhole Province

2017

10% PM10 concentration Reduction compare to 2012

Chengdu city

2017

25% PM2.5 concentration Reduction compare to 2012

1. Prevent biomass burning in certain area. Encourage biomass resource recycle.
2. Control the TSP emission from construction site.
3. Control the Coal consumption in Sichuan.
4. Prevent high emission fuel combustion in certain area.
5. Prevent high emission vehicle to enter Chengdu urban area.
6. Update petrol standard to State IV standard, same as Euro IV emission
standard before 2016.
7. Desulfurization implementation rate increases to 90% for coal combustion,and denitrification rate increases to 70%.
8. Emission standard update: (TSP) 20mg/m3 for Chengdu, 30mg/m3 for others.
9. Desulfurization rate of Steel industry increases to 70%.
10. Denitrification rate of Cement industry to 60%.

12Kyoto University

Sichuan(kt/year)

2012

PM2.5

795

SO2878NOx

771

NH3860VOC

554

Jiangsu

2017641

2012

2017

1,314

1,088

-19%

617

1,1681,096

+14%

690
1,071

924

1,012

1,510

1,651
+18%

2017785

2012

944

970

1,487

1,389

1,305

215

1,090

567
+15%

987
946
-13%

920

+11%

492

803

-24%

-7%

193

2017

-15%

-35%

+10%

1,397

Hubei

±0%

-2%

+14%

632

784

-40%

-24%

982

2012

-17%

-30%

589

Shannxi

1,016
+10%

511

594+16%(Data was provided by ERI )13

Kyoto University

JAN

FEB

MAR

APRMAYJUN

Base year (2012) Emission Case

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Kyoto University

JULAUGSEPOCTNOVDEC

Base year (2012) Emission Caseμg/m3μg/m3μg/m3μg/m3

Kyoto University

1516Kyoto University

μg/m3μg/m3

Change of Composition of PM2.5
Target: 25%-14%

Target: 10%-0.2%-17%+0.1%+2%PM2.5 Primary SO4 NH4 POA NO3
Target: 18%-10%μg/m3

μg/m3-5.5% -2.6% 0%-10%
PM2.5 Primary SO4-7%-17% -6%

NH4

POANO3-8%-3%-14%+0.7%

PM2.5 Primary SO4NH4POANO3

Target: 20%-12%-13%-15%-7%-4% -12%0%

PM2.5 Primary SO4 NH4 POA NO3

17Kyoto Universitycity

SichuanJiangsu

Shannxi

HubeiChengdu

Nanjing

Xi’an

Wuhan

Emission

2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017 2012 2017
Primary
PM2.5

795

SO2878

PM2.5

104.2

[kt/year]

Concentration[kt/year](yearly ave.)[μg/m3]
Reduction
Target641 1,314 1,088

784

785

944

803

-19%

-17%

617 1,168

690 1,510

970 1,305

987

-30%

-40%

-35%

-24%±0%-15%

89.8 155.0 136.9 190.8 190.4 170.0 152.1
-14%

-12%

-0.2 %

-11%

25%

20%

10%

18%

Kyoto University

In order to assess the provincial level “Air Pollution
Prevention Action Plan” , Air Quality Model, CMAQ,calculation was performed.
 As a result, provincial target couldn’t be achieved byonly the current action plan. However, if the emissionof surrounding region is also decreased, target may beachieved.
 Validation with Satellite Data is necessary.
18

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Kyoto University

Thank you for your attention.