thThe 16 AIM International Workshop

February 19‐21, 2011
Climate Change Research Hall at NIESAsia‐Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)
ERI(China), IIM(India), MoE(Indonesia) , Seoul U (Korea)

AIM

1990

AIM Workshop (1995 ‐ )

1994
COP3

1997

JST/JICA SATREPS Project(FY2011‐FY200)

2001

AIT2004

2006

Japan LCS Project(FY2004‐FY2008)

2007

Japan‐UK Joint Project(FY2006‐FY2007)
LCS‐RNet(FY2009‐ )

2008
2009
Malaysia

2010

Asia LCS Project (FY2009‐FY2015)

Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam

2011

2050

Low Carbon Society2

GHG emissions per capita

Asian LCS scenarios studyDevelopedCountries

High Energy
Locked‐in TypeDevelopmentDevelopingCountries
Leapfrog‐development

Development of Asia LCS Scenarios(1) Depicting narrative scenarios for LCS(2) Quantifying future LCS visions(3) Developing robust roadmaps
Policy Packages for Asia LCS

LowCarbonWorldWith High
Damage on
Economy andNatural SystemTime• Encouraging the framing for LC policyin each Asian country• Assistance for international
negotiations with scientific basis• Networking among LCS research inAsia

ModelTransportation
sectorEnergysupplysectorEnergysupplymodel

Industrial
sectorServiceMaterial stock & flow model

Commercial Enduse
sectorTechnologyEnergy ExtendedEnergy：Output of modelSnap Shot
Model
SnapshotTool：Data flow(ExSS)：ModelHousehold Prd.
& lifestyle model
Residential energy
service model

Commercial energy
service model

Preferenceof household

Investment
Efficiency

Stock

Production amountMacro

Economic
Model

Passenger Trns.
demand model
Freight Trns.
demand model

Industrial
production model

Population
Labor

Environmental option database, Bottom-up engineering model

Residential
sectorMacroeconomyActivity

Inter-sector and macro economic model

Stock
Building dynamic model

Energy supply& demand

Population
andhouseholdmodel
EnergyBackcastbalancetableModel

Check consistency!
AIM (Asia‐Pacific Integrated Modeling) for Asia LCS scenarios

Analysis of mid‐term target setting in Japan by AIM model
Equal total abatement cost per GDPAbatement cost per GDP: 0.74%
0%• How much should wereduce GHG emissions?

‐5%

‐11%

‐11%‐10%‐15%‐3%‐1%‐15%‐11%‐19%‐23%‐28%‐20%‐6%‐25%

2 AIM/Enduse[Japan]• Technological potential
to reduce GHGemission• Policies to develop &deploymenttechnologies

‐9%

‐25%

‐30%
‐32%

‐35%
‐40%
‐45%
‐50%

NonCO2 + CO2 (non fuel)CO2 (Fuel Combustion)
GHG‐9%150

Cost (Trillion Yen)

1 AIM/Enduse[Global]

1005078

96- 36- 43- 50-35-4258
0-50-49-100
‐37%

15%
reduction

20%
25%
reduction reduction

Additionalinvestment(’11 – ’20 total)
Energy reduction
expense(’11 – ’20 total)
Energy reduction
expense(’21 – ’30 total)←Enduse [Global] ↑CGE [Japan]↓Enduse[Japan]

3 AIM/CGE[Japan]• Economic impacts by
the implementation ofclimate change policies• Effects of carbon
pricing85

IPCC New Scenario Development

Where are we today?

“Parallel Phase”

RCPsSelection, Extension
to 2300,
Downscaling

Development of New IAM
Scenarios

Continued Development andApplication of IAM Scenarios

CMC Develops RCP-based
Ensemble Runs & Pattern Scaling
Analysis

IAM

Integration of CMC
Ensembles with IAM
NEW Scenarios

CMCIAV

Story Lines

IAV Research Based on AR4 Climate and SRES
IAM scenarios

Integration Phase

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

12 month

Publication
Lag

Spring 2013

Parallel Phase

18 months

Spring 2012

24 months

Winter 2010

April 2009

Fall 2007

6Preparatory
Phase

12 months

IAV research based on
new CM and IAM scenarios

Modeling and Policy Analysis to tackle with climate change
Copenhagen
Country pledges

TechnologyModelGHG path
Kyoto
TargetEconomic
ModelTechnologyTransfer？
Visions of LCS?
Socio‐economic condition
where GHG emissions are
reduced by half

Target ofeachcountry?
2008～2012 2020
First Commitment

Dynamic
optimization
model
2050

50%
reduction

GHG450ppm
Stabilization
path
Less than
2℃increase

2100～

Emission path and socio‐economic condition
to stabilize the climate change below 2℃target?

Major themes• New scenario development with integration of adaptation,mitigation, and development• Roadmap to achieve a low carbon society• Better understanding of transition to a low carbon society• More comprehensive treatment of regional aspects of climatechange• Climate change in the context of other dimensions (e.g.
poverty, energy security, food security, water security,
biodiversity loss, …)

The 16th AIM International Workshop
Feb 19 (Sat)Feb 20 (Sun)Feb 21 (Mon)

Morning 1

Welcome Address
Overview of AIM
activities

Asia LCS

Morning 2

Modeling

LCS

Lunch

Lunch

Lunch

Afternoon 1 Modeling (Cont’d)

LCS – Next step
Panel discussion

Research meeting (II)Afternoon 2 Impact

Kainuma‐san session
Presentation & Panel

Research meeting (III)

18:30‐20:30 Reception

DinnerResearch meeting (I)