Progress in Strategic Database
and CGE Activities at AIT

Presented byRam M. Shrestha
Asian Institute of Technology
Pathumthani, Thailand

10th AIM International Workshop
10-12 March 2005
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

SDB Project Activities at AIT

Wongkot Wongsapai, Migara Liyanage andRam M. Shrestha

SDB Project Activities•

Past and ongoing activities on APEIS-SDB project:– Collection of qualitative data for 70 innovativetechnologies/programs– Collection of quantitative data for 20 innovativetechnologies/programs– Developing illustrative diagrams to represent activities in thetransport sector and renewable energy sector– Representing the impact of bio-fuel program in Thailand using
AIM/Enduse model.

Collection of qualitative information on innovativeenvironmental options
26

12Renewable Energy Promotion

Residential Sector

Solar PV (water pumping, SHS),
Solar Water Heater and Dryer,
Biomass (thermal & electricity),
Biogas (thermal & electricity),
Capacity buildings, etc.

Thin tube project,
Brown Rice Label 5 Project,
Hi-eff Air condition & refrigeration,
Energy efficient house,
Human awareness, etc.

21

11Transport Sector

Solid Waste Management

Biodiesel and Gasohol,Electricity vehicles, NGV,
Walking Street,Fixed route Van bus,
Vehicle Emission Clinic, etc.

Hi-eff. waste incinerator,
Fly ash application in concrete works,
Recycled PET bottle to be carpet,
Aluminum Recycling for Prosthesis,
Waste Bank in school, etc.

Collection of quantitative data on innovativeenvironmental options (1)• Renewable Energy Promotion (11 Selected options)
1. Residential Grid Connected PV Systems in Thailand
2. Solar Home System Project
3. Solar PV Power System for Rural Schools
4. Solar Power plant
5. Hybrid Power System for National Parks
6. Biogas for Power Generation in Livestock Farms
7. Biogas Used in Tapioca Starch Plant
8. Biogas Used in Municipal Slaughter Houses
9. Biogas Used in Palm Oil Extraction Plant
10.Rice Husk Power Plant
11.Absorption Chiller from Rice Husk for Mushroom Drying

Collection of quantitative data on innovativeenvironmental options (2)• Transport Sector (6 Selected options)
1. Gasohol Promotion Program
2. Biodiesel Promotion Program
3. Natural Gas Vehicles Program (NGV)
4. Phase out Lead from Gasoline
5. 4-Stroke to 2-Stroke Motorcycle Engine
6. Street Lighting Program• Residential Sector (6 Selected options)
1. Thin Tube Program
2. CFL Program3. High Efficiency Air Conditioner Labeling Program
4. High Efficiency Refrigerator Labeling Program
5. Brown Rice No.5 Program
6. Low emission Crematorium

Illustrations of Strategies: Renewable Energy Promotion
34, 58

Biofuel Plant

8131, 4

BiogasMSW4, 56, 7

92, 4
RETs Knowledge &Database Center

Biomass
Power Plant 111012Grid
Other
Renewable E.
Applications
Thermal Energy Flow
Electricity Flow

1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.

14

Solar Home System Project
Solar PV Power System for Rural Schools
Solar Power plant
Solar Water HeaterExisting
Solar Dryer
Innovations
Green Fuel & Cook stoves
Rice Husk for Mushroom Drying Kiln
Biogas in Livestock Farms & fertilizer
Biogas from Landfill MSW
Biogas in Tapioca Starch, Palm oil Plant& Slaughter houses
Rice Husk & Parawood Power Plant
Hybrid Power System for National Parks
Biodiesel and Gasohol Program
Renewable Map, Database and Museum & TEENET

Illustrations of Strategies: Renewable Energy Promotion
4A

Biofuel Plant

8A

1A
5A

BiogasMSW

2A

Biomass
Power Plant

3A

RETs Knowledge &Database Center
9A

6A, 7A

FutureGrid
Other
Renewable E.
Applications
Thermal Energy Flow
Electricity Flow

1A. Solar Street Lighting Project
Scenarios
2A. Solar thermal for water purification
3A. Solar PV in commercial and manufacturing sector
4A. Regional Biogas Pipeline & Network
5A. Fuel cell & Hybrid Technology
6A. Renewable Portfolio Standard
7A. IT Based technology to control demand/supply
8A. Large scale Energy Plantation
9A. Renewable Energy Fund …….. And etc.

Illustrations of Strategies: Transport Sector (Urban)

Used Lubricating
Oil System

Alternative Fuel Program

Eco-Education Program

Eco-Mass Transit Program*Smart Traffic
Signal System*Hybrid & H2NGV*Smart Street
Lighting system

Gasohol

Workplaces near
Residences Program*Car Navigation
SystemSky Train (*Extended)
CombatIllegal Oil*Smart Parkingsystem*Econo-driving
licenseBike Lane*Rapid Bus System

Metro (*Extended)

Van Bus System
Tire Recycling
program*Electricity
vehiclesSpeed limit &Vehicle
Maintenanceawareness

Biodiesel
Econo power
contestWalking StreetEmission Std.

Car Free Day* = Future scenario
Efficient technology Program

Eco-friendly Transport Program

Eco-management ProgramIllustrations of Strategies: Transport Sector (Rural)
Alternative Fuel Program

Eco-Education Program

Eco-Mass Transit Program*Gasohol

Biodiesel*Smart Street
Lighting system

CombatIllegal Oil
Used Lubricating
Oil System*Econodriving license

Recycle Tiresystem*Less Maintenace
Highway*Vehicle
Maintenanceawareness*Bike Lane

* = Future scenario

Efficient technology Program

Speed limit
awareness

Eco-friendy Transport Program

Eco-management ProgramAnalysis of the Biofuel Program in Thailand using
AIM/Enduse ModelAnalysis of Biofuel Program in Thailand (1)• Issues considered in the analysis:– Cost effectiveness of bio-fuel options in transport
sector– Environmental impacts• Bio-fuel Options considered:– Bio-diesel (without any mixing)• Maximum availability of Bio-diesel for transport
sector limited up to 875 million liters (3% of thediesel requirement) in 2011
• Considered only for Road and Water transport– Gasohol (10% Ethanol)

Analysis of Biofuel Program in Thailand (2)Energy consumption in the Transport sector

TR- TRRAIL
AIR2000••

TRROAD2010

2020

DieselBio
DieselGaosline

DieselNaturalgas

LPG

Electricity

Bio
DieselDiesel

Coal

40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

Jet Fuel

Energy (ktoe)•TR-WAT2030

Biodiesel is cost effective in Road transport (but not cost effective for watertransport)
Gasohol was not cost effective at current cost of production

Reduction in emissions in transport
sector compared to case with no biofuels considered (%)

Effect of Biofuel Program in Reducing Emissions
2.5
21.5
10.5
0-0.5

2006

2020

2030

-1

CO2 Emsisions

•

2010

SO2 Emsisions

NOx Emsisions

Reduction in transport sector emissions from biofuel program during 2006-2030 :– CO2, by up to 1.6 Mton (1.8%) in 2011 In 2011,– SO2 reduction by 1.9 kton (2.2%) in 2011
– NOx increases by 1.4 kton (0.4%) in 2011

Implications of Carbon Tax in Thai Economy:
Preliminary AIM/CGE Model Results
Sunil Malla

Sectors/commodities in AIM/CGE Thailand
27 Sectors/commodities with 8 energy sectors
1

Agriculture, livestock, forestry, fishery

23

Construction

4

Other non-energy mining

24

Trade

5Food, beverage and tobacco

25

Hotels & Restaurants

6

Textile, leather, and the products

26

Transport & Communications

7

Timber and wooden products

27Services

8Pulp, paper and printing

9

Chemical products

2

Coal and lignite

14

Plastic and rubber products

3

Crude oil

15

Non-metallic mineral products

10Gasoline

16

Metal products

11Diesel17Machinery

12

Aviation fuel18

Transport equipment

13

Fuel oil

19

Other manufacturing products

20Electricity

22Water21

Gas distribution

8 Energy sectors• Original 1998 SAM has 61X61 sectors [obtained from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)]• Based on modified SAM (i.e., 27x27 sectors), U-, V- and capital formation- matrices are prepared .

Policy scenarios•

Base case (Reference case)– No energy efficiency improvement and no carbon taxes– Differentiated labor productivity improvement is assumed– Replicates the benchmark economy•

Efficiency scenario– Energy efficiency improvement of 1%/year for entire study period (i.e.,1998-2030)•Carbon tax scenarios– Implementation of tax: from 2008 onwards– 4 different tax scheme• CT50(US$ 50 per ton of carbon)• CT100(US$ 100 per ton of carbon)• CT150(US$ 150 per ton of carbon)• CT200(US$ 200 per ton of carbon)

Preliminary results (1)Base case economic indicators and CO2 emissions profile
Consumption

Investment

YearNetexportGDP

Labor
incomeCapitalincomeCapitalstock(trillion Baht)
1998
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

3.0
3.6
4.5
5.99.4
10.8
12.9

1.0
3.5
5.3
7.4
7.7
8.8
10.8

0.7
-0.1
-0.1
<0.0
1.1
2.0
3.0

4.7
7.0
9.6
13.4
18.2
21.6
26.7

Wagerate(1998=1)

1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.9

2.6
4.4
6.3
9.1
12.5
15.2
18.4

21.2
28.5
40.9
59.1
81.3
98.9
119.9

1.00
1.41
1.68
2.09
2.55
2.69
2.84

CO2
emissions(millionton)
148
177
218
288
386
472
577

 1998 is the benchmark year (actual data) GDP is sum of consumption, investment and net export (No government in the model)
 By 2030: GDP increases by 5.7 times compared to 1998 value
CO2 emissions increases by 3.9 times compared to 1998 value Share of consumption and investment combined together in total GDP is about 85% in1998 and increased to about 90% in 2030.

Summary•

Efficiency scenario– GDP loss
: 0.51% in 2010 to 2.77% in 2030
– Avoided CO2 emissions : 4.8% in 2010 to 20.0% in 2030•

Carbon tax scenario– primary economic indicators (under CT200)• GDP loss
: 0.50% in 2010 to 2.81% in 2030
• Loss in consumption: 0.13% in 2010 to 2.58% in 2030
• Loss in net export : 0.9% in 2010 to 3.0% in 2030
– CO2 emissions improvement (under CT200)• 5.7% in 2010 to 20.8% in 2030

Thank you