IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1A2_4F-O1

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 10:45-11:00

Outcomes of the International Volcanic Ash Task Force 2010 2012
Andrew Tupper1 , Peter Lechner2 , Greg Brock3 , Raul Romero3 , Herbert Puempel4 , Marianne Guffanti5 ,Larry Mastin5 , Chris Newhall6
1

Bureau of Meteorology, Australia, 2 Civil Aviation Authority, New Zealand, 3 International Civil Aviation
Organization, Canada, 4 World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland, 5 United States Geological
Survey, United States, 6 Nanyang Technological University, Singapore
E-mail: a.tupper@bom.gov.au

The International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF) was established by the International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) in May 2010 in response to the significant disruptions of civil aviation that resulted from the eruption of
Eyjafjallajokull. Working in a complementary capacity to the existing ICAO International Airways Volcano Watch(IAVW) Operations Group (IAVWOPSG), the task force was principally tasked to assist in the urgent developmentof a global safety risk management framework that would make it possible to determine the safe levels of operationin airspace contaminated by volcanic ash. Recognizing the multi-disciplinary nature of the issues highlighted
during the eruption, the IVATF adopted a project management approach and principally worked through four
programme sub-groups (atmospheric sciences, airworthiness, and air traffic management, and another sub-groupfocused on IAVW coordination).

More than 100 experts nominated by countries (States) and internationalorganizations contributed depending on their particular area of expertise. The IVATF produced a significant numberof recommendations, including furthering efforts to monitor volcanoes on the ground, improve eruption detection
and measurement capability, improve knowledge and use of eruption source parameters, and collect and use
relevant meteorological data.

Specifically, in regard to volcano observatory arrangements, the IVATF proposed amendments to internationallyagreed guidance on services for International Air Navigation to ensure appropriate volcanic eruption monitoring,
volcano observatory response and notification within the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW). In addition,
the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) will be conducting, through Regional Offices and with theassistance of concerned Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs), three Special Implementation Projects in 2012
(in the African, European, and Central American and Caribbean Regions) targeted at States which maintainvolcano observatories to assist them in ensuring the effective implementation of the IAVW arrangements andassociated ICAO provisions.

In June 2012, after four major meetings and intensive work by correspondence, the task force delivered its
results and was dissolved. Further work will be carried out by other ICAO groups, and by the WMO IUGG Volcanic
Ash Scientific Advisory Group. However, the active involvement of States and State Volcano Observatories in the
global effort to build eruption observation and prediction capacity is critical to the success of these efforts.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1196

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1A2_4F-O2

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 11:00-11:15

First-order estimates of economic losses from ash fall for some Asian mega cities
Russell Blong1 , Susanna Jenkins2 , Christina Magill3 , Catherine Tillyard4 , Oriol Gaspa Rebull4
1

Aon Benfield Asia Pacific Ltd, Australia, 2 University of Bristol, United Kingdom, 3 Risk Frontiers,
Macquarie University, Australia, 4 Aon Benfield, United Kingdom
E-mail: russell.blong@aonbenfield.com

First approximation economic losses can be estimated by combining information about the probability of a hazard
occurring, an inventory of exposed assets (and their values), and a series of functions indicating the vulnerabilitiesof the assets to the impact of the hazard. We use this approach to examine potential losses from ash fall in five
Asian mega cities - Jakarta, Manila, Taipei, Tokyo, and Seoul.

Ash fall magnitude and frequency for the five mega cities were estimated by Jenkins et al. (2012) after utilising
the ASHFALL tephra dispersal model to simulate 1000 scenario eruptions for each volcano threatening eachof the five cities. Results are expressed as exceedance probabilities of ashfall thickness per square kilometre of city.

Exposure is estimated by dividing the areas of each city into broad land use types - commercial, industrial,
residential, roadway, open space, airport etc. Per unit values are assigned to each land use type.

Vulnerability functions for a range of ashfall thicknesses relevant to each land use type have been developed.
These functions also take into account the costs of ashfall cleanup and removal.

The methodology allows ranking of the cities in terms of ashfall risk and can be extended readily to other
cities, to other assets, and to other natural perils.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1197

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1A2_4F-O3

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 11:15-11:30

Airborne in-situ measurement of Sakurajima volcanic ash plume with light aircrafts andoptical particle counters
Nario YASUDA1 , Jonas ELIASSON2 , Andreas VOGEL3 , Masato IGUCHI4
1

Kyoto University, Japan, 2 Iceland University, Iceland, 3 University of Applied Sciences, Dusseldorf,
Germany, 4 Kyoto University, Japan
E-mail: yasuda.nario.6r@kyoto-u.ac.jp

It is clear that the no-fly zone of airplanes during a volcanic eruption has great influence on the economic activity
in the respective area, based on the experience during the 2010 eruptions of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland. When theextent of volcanic ash clouds is predicted from simulation calculations, the airspace may be closed. However, during
the volcanic eruption of Iceland, European aviation authorities took the measure which loosens no-fly zone of an
airplane according to the concentration of volcanic ash in order to avoid confusion of an air route at an early stage.
In that case, the diffusion of volcanic ash clouds grasps viewing or a satellite photograph, and the concentration of
volcanic ash is measured by LIDAR (detection by a laser picture) in the ground.
This research firstly aims at grasping the three-dimensional structure of volcanic ash plume by the in-situ airborne
ash measurement. The atmospheric diffusion model which predicts the volcanic ash concentration is verified by
the comparison between observed and calculated values. The in-situ field is Mt. Sakurajima in Kagoshima where
the eruption frequency is high. Moreover, the possibility of usage of the X-band MP radar for measuring volcanic
ash clouds is also investigated.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1198

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1A2_4F-O4

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 11:30-11:45

The volcanic ash dispersion of the Aira super-eruption, Japan
Chang-Hwa Chen, Tein-Nan Yang
Academia Sinica, Taiwan
E-mail: china@earth.sinica.edu.tw

The Aira (AT) caldera super-eruption in the Kyushu, southwest Japan was much important event in last 100 ka. In
terms of eruption volume and dispersion map of the Aira super-eruption, it released at least 500 km3 products andvolcanic ashes were eastwardly dispersed to Honshu, Hokkaido and the Japan Sea at the downwind direction. The
tephrostratigraphic studies of the Aira super-eruption have well done by other previous studies in the Japan area.
In the recent, a notable new discovery is that the volcanic glass shards of the Aira caldera super-eruption arefound at the depth 2160 cm of the IMAGES MD052910 core (24o 1.64’N; 122o 12.04’E) at the western offshore
Taiwan. The SiO2 and K2 O chemical compositions as well as 87 Sr/86 Sr and εNd isotopic ratios of glass shards
in the core are 78.16%, 3.56%, 0.70630 and -4.1, respectively, which are completely consistent with those of the
Aira super-eruption. Based on the C-14 dating results of MD052910, the sedimentary time of the depth 2160 cm
can be estimated as 29.4 ka 14 C age BP, which is also consistent that the suggested age as 26-29 ka of the Airasuper-eruption (Machida and Arai, 2003)
The volcanic ashes were dispersed almost the same order of distances at both down and up wind directions during
the super-eruption. What kind of eruptive styles and how to disperse so far in the upwind direction become very
interesting question. The similar manifestation of volcanic ash distribution of the Toba super-eruption has beenfound in not only Indian peninsula, but in the South China Sea. The results strongly suggested that the volcanic
ash dispersed behaviors of the super-eruption should appear the more complicate mechanism of ash dispersion.
Baines and Sparks (2005) claimed that the super-eruptions shall generate the giant ’spinning’ ash clouds , which
are greater than 600 km and up to 6000 km in diameter.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1199

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1A2_4F-O5

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 11:45-12:00

Polarimetric radar observations of volcanic eruptions
Masayuki MAKI1 , Takeshi MAESAKA2 , Tomofumi KOZONO3
1

Kagoshima University, Japan, 2 NIED, Japan, 3 NIED, Japan
E-mail: maki3@dia-net.ne.jp

There have been several reports of ’conventional’ radar succeeded in detecting volcanic eruptions and estimating
ash amount distributions. In addition to this information, ’polarimetric’ radar has the potential to deduce themicrophysical properties of volcanic ash particles such as ash particle size distribution, particle shape and postural.
From analogy of past studies of hydrometeor classification in radar meteorology, polarimetric radar parameters
may be used to discriminate ash particles from hydrometeors, which is a difficult task for non-polarimetric radar.
The present study examines the potential use of polarimetric weather radar in the detection of volcanic eruptions,quantitative ash fall estimations (QAE), and the microphysical retrieval of ash particles.
The radar data analyzed in the present study are from the eruptions of the Mt. Shinmoedake volcano (1,421 m
ASL) in the Kirishima Mountan Range and the Mt. Minamidake volcano (1,040 m ASL) in Sakura-jima, Kagoshima
prefecture, both of which are located in southern Kyushu, Japan. The data selected for analysis are based on
the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) monthly report on volcano activity, collected from 27 explosive eruptionsof the Mt Shinmoedake volcano during the period January to March 2011, and 12 explosive eruptions of the Mt.
Minamidake volcano during the period July to October 2012. The radar data from the Mt. Shinmoedake eruptions
were collected by Kunimiyama C-band polarimetric radar, which was located 67.8 km south of the Mt. Shinmoedake
volcano. The radar data from the Mt. Minamidake eruptions were collected by Tarumizu X-band polarimetric radar,which was located approximately 11 km south-southeast of the volcano.
Based on analysis of the eruption time period, the maximum and accumulated reflectivity factor, and the differentialreflectivity of the volcanic ash, we reach the following conclusions:1) Operational polarimetric weather radar has the potential ability to quantitatively estimate the amount of volcanicash expelled during volcanic eruptions.
2) The Z-A relationship, where Z is reflectivity and A is the ash amount, can be derived if ground measurements of
the ash amounts are available.
3) The coefficient and exponent of the power low function of the Z-A relationship is dependent on each volcanic
eruption, which may be due to the difference in ash particle size distribution.
4) Differential reflectivity over a volcano crater fluctuates in space and time, while showing significant spatiotemporal
patterning in the downwind regions, which suggests the presence of an ash particle aggregation and sorting
mechanism.
5) The radar cannot detect weak ash echoes due to the minimum detectable reflectivity, which depends on therange from the radar and the receiver noise level of the radar system.
6) In-situ measurements of ash particles are necessary for more detailed analyses of polarimetric radar
parameters.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1200

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1A2_4F-O6

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 12:00-12:15

Review of past aircraft volcanic ash encounters in Japanese airspace involving
international airlines
Saburo Onodera
J.F. Oberlin University, Japan
E-mail: volcano@obirin.ac.jp

Volcanic ash encounters by large transport airctaft were reported in this country, especially at Kasgoshima Airport
area, since 1970s. Kagoshima Airport and its approaching and departing route are located in the proximity of
Sakurajima Volcano, less than 20km at closest point. Coutermeasures against ash encounter in this area have
improved by reflecting past experience of encounters based on cooperations of government agencies and airlines,
and contributions by academic group such as Sakurajima Volcanological Observtory, Kyoto University.

On the other hand, at other volcanos in this country, volcanic ash encounters were reported in recent years
since 1990, e.g.,at Unzen Volcano in 1991 and at Miyakejima Volcano in 2000. Post incident investigation ofrespective volcanic ash encounter should be carried out carefully to find out cause of encounter correctly andaccurately in order to reflect them properly to countermeasures against future encounters.

Since mid 1990s, ICAO VAACs have been established and they have been working hard and contributed toprevention of volcanic ash encounters in the world. However, VAAC is not a final goal of countermeasures forprevention of volcanic ash encounters.

The aircraft encounter case with volcanic ash of Unzen Volcano on 27 June 1991 was reviewed by theauthor and was concluded that the reported items in this case was not conssitent with volcanic activities of the
volcano on this day including previous day. It was more likely to be associated with the "High Altitude Ice Crystal
Icing" reported by Mason(2007), rather than volcanic ash encounter. There is not direct evidence to proove
the case at this stage due to 20 years of time has gone already, but it should be further studied from aviation
meteorological point of view in stead of volcanoclogical point of view.

The B747 and B737 encounter with Miyakejima volcanic ash on 18 August 2000 was researched with
supplementing new stuffs recorded at the time of ash encounter. The results did not agree with some pastreports on the case. The area was adjacent to terminal area of Haneda Airport and Narita Airport and have heavy
air traffic in the proximity of active volcanos. Countermeasures for this area shall be discussed.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1201

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1A2_4F-O7

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 12:15-12:30

Investigation of the impacts of volcanic eruption on flight passengers and cargo: A casestudy of Sakurajima volcano
Tetsuya Tamaki1 , Hirokazu Tatano2 , Yoshio Kajitani2
1

Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University, JAPAN, 2 Disaster Prevention Research Institute,
Kyoto University, JAPANE-mail: tamaki@imdr.dpri.kyoto-u.ac.jp

In recent years, transportation modes for passengers are becoming more diversified due to new developments oftransportation systems. For example, a new trunk rail line between Hakata Station and Kagoshimachuo Station
was constructed in 2011. As a result, entire Kyushu Shinkansen was completed, which leads to 4 hours or less forthe trip between Shin-Osaka station and Kagoshimachuo station. In addition, the low-cost carriers are launched
into service in recent years, attracting the passengers who require both time and cost reductions. Passengers canchoose transportation of several modes for going to the destination depending on the situation.
If airports are closed by natural disasters or accidents, passengers and cargo flows have to be redirected or stopped
otherwise. As a result, the change may induce significant economic losses. In fact, there were the cases that large
amount of economic damages were caused by closures of airports due to volcano eruptions. Eyjafjallajokull volcano
in Iceland corresponds to such a case. This eruption caused confusions of society in a large area, since many
airports in Europe were forced to be closed by visible and invisible ash in the air. According to the International Air
Transport Association, the airline’s loss was estimated as $ 200 million per day.
In order to properly assess the risk of such an event, this study proposes a method to analyze changes in the flowof passengers and cargo in the situation when the airport was disrupted due to a volcanic activity. Eruptions of
Sakurajima volcano in Kagoshima Prefecture is selected as a case study. One of the features of the focuses inthis study is that the restrictions of flights change from day to day depending on the conditions such as wind andvolcanic activities. Therefore, it is necessary to dynamically represent the flight restricted area and to analyze thechange in the modes of transportation. In addition, this study uses the method for selecting the Kth best path to
reduce the computation time of implementing the dynamic model The usefulness of the model is demonstrated
through the case study.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1202

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P1_4F-O8

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 15:00-15:15

Measurements and mapping of volcanic plumes with light aircraft, examples of researchflights during eruptions of Eyjafjallajoekull, Grimsvoetn and Etna
Konradin Weber1 , Jonas Eliasson2 , Andreas Vogel1 , Christian Fischer1 , Hans Martin Moser1
1

Environmental Measurement Techniques, University of Applied Sciences, Duesseldorf, Germany,2
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute , University of Iceland, Reykjavik, IcelandE-mail: konradin.weber@fh-duesseldorf.de

Volcanic eruptions can pose a considerable threat to aviation. This became evident by the airspace closuresduring the eruptions of Eyjafjallajoekull 2010 and Grimsvoetn 2011 and interim closures of the airport Catania afterparoxysmal eruptions of Etna 2011. In these situations the Laboratory of Environmental Measurement Techniques(LEMT) of the Duesseldorf University of Applied Sciences and the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute(EERI) of the University of Iceland used light aircrafts, equipped with optical particle counters (OPCs) and partlywith volcanic gas measurement systems, for exploring the volcanic plumes and for plume mapping.
During the eruption of the Eyjafjallajoekull 2010 LEMT performed 14 research flights over North Germany. The
results of these flights were compared with the model calculations of the London VAAC. In parallel EERI performed
measurement flights over western Iceland. During two of these flights the outskirts of the ash plume were entereddirectly by the aircraft delivering concentrations of about 2000 micro g/m3. In Germany the Eyjafjallajoekull ash
plume appeared to be strongly structured in horizontal and vertical direction during the flights. Peak concentrationsof up to 330 micro g/m3 could be found.
During the Grimsvoetn eruption 2011 LEMT and EERI performed several cooperative measurement flights over
Iceland and northern Germany. A part of the flights on Iceland was performed officially for the Icelandic flight
operator ISAVIA. The aircraft measurements in the region over Keflavik and Reykjavik revealed mostly small ash
concentrations in contrast to the predictions of the VAAC dispersion model.
Therefore these aircraft measurements helped to re-open the international airport of Keflavik by ISAVIA. In a similar
way aircraft measurements over northern Germany on 25 May 2011, which were performed by LEMT for theGerman Weather Service DWD, showed low ash concentrations over northern Germany, despite of high predicted
VAAC model calculations. Therefore the re-opening of the German airports Hamburg, Bremen and Berlin was inaccordance with the low measured ash concentrations by the LEMT aircraft.
Moreover this light aircraft was used by LEMT for studies of the volcanic plumes of Etna in 2011 and enabled thedetermination of SO2 fluxes.
In general light piston-motor driven aircraft proved to be robust enough to operate even atelevated ash concentrations. Because these aircraft are able to fly at low cruising velocities during
measurements they can deliver spatial high resolution results. Moreover, the OPCs of these aircraft were calibrated
in a special dust/wind tunnel with volcanic ash, thus delivering ash concentration results with high accuracy.
It is important to note, that the LEMT aircraft is on official standby now for the German Weather Service DWD and
the German Transport Ministry for official airborne measurements in Germany in case of another volcanic eruption.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1203

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P1_4F-O9

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 15:15-15:30

Sakurajima volcano: a physico-chemical study of the health consequences of long-term
exposure to volcanic ash
Sarah E Hillman1 , Claire J Horwell1 , Alex L Densmore1 , David E Damby1 , Bice Fubini2 , Yasuhiro
Ishimine3 , Maura Tomatis2
1

Durham University, UK, 2 Universita degli Studi di Torino, Italy, 3 Japanese National Institute of Public
Health, Japan
E-mail: claire.horwell@durham.ac.uk

Regular eruptions from Sakurajima volcano, Japan, repeatedly cover local urban areas with volcanic ash. The
frequency of exposure of local populations to the ash led to substantial concerns about possible respiratory healthhazards, resulting in many epidemiological and toxicological studies being carried out in the 1980s. However,very few mineralogical data were available for determination of whether the ash was sufficiently fine to present
a respiratory hazard. In this study, we review the existing studies and carry out mineralogical, geochemical andtoxicological analyses to address whether the ash from Sakurajima has the potential to cause respiratory healthproblems. The results show that the amount of respirable (less than 4 micron.) material produced by the volcano
is highly variable in different eruptions (1.1 to 18.8 vol. per cent). The finest samples derive from historical,
plinian eruptions butconsiderable amounts of respirable material were also produced from the most recent vulcanianeruptive phase (since 1955). The amount of cristobalite, a crystalline silica polymorph which has the potential
to cause chronic respiratory diseases, is 3 to 5 wt. per cent in the bulk ash. Scanning electron microscope
and transmission electron microscope imaging showed no fibrous particles similar to asbestos particles. Surface
reactivity tests showed that the ash did not produce significant amounts of highly reactive hydroxyl radicals (0.09
to 1.35 micro mol/m2 at 30 min.) in comparison to other volcanic ash types. A basic toxicology assay to assess
the ability of ash to rupture the membrane of red blood cells showed low propensity for haemolysis. The findings
suggest that the potential health hazard of the ash is low, but exposure and respiratory conditions should still bemonitored given the high frequency and durations of exposure.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1204

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P1_4F-O10

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 15:30-15:45

Radon levels due to volcanic activities of Mt. Sakurajima
Shinji Tokonami1 , Masahiro Hosoda2 , Atsuyuki Sorimachi11Department of Radiation Physics, Institute of Radiation Emergency Medicine, Hirosaki University,
Japan, 2 Hirosaki University Graduate School of Health Sciences, Department of Radiological Life
Sciences, Japan
E-mail: tokonami@cc.hirosaki-u.ac.jp

The high polonium-210 concentrations from Mt. Sakurajima volcano have been observed on 1980s. Polonium-210
is generated from radon-222 by radioactive decay. The radon-222 concentration may also be possibly high when
the high polonium-210 concentration was observed. The WHO proposed a reference level of indoor radon gas
ranging from 100 to 300 Bq m-3, and its inhalation is supposed to increase the risk of lung cancer after tobaccosmoking. Radon is generated from soil, rocks, groundwater, and building materials. These soil and rocks canbe regarded as the main source. Recently, number of eruption of Mt. Sakurajima is increasing. The aim of ourpresent study is to clarify the relationship between Mt. Sakurajima volcano activity and radon-222 concentrationin the environment. The outdoor radon-222 concentration has been measured by pulse-type ionization chamberin Tarumizu City, Kagoshima located at approximately 10 km south-southwest of Mt. Sakurajima. Continuous
measurements of radon concentration were performed from Sep., 2008 to Feb., 2010 and from Aug.,2012 to Nov.,
2012. Meteorological data such as temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and precipitation
were also observed. A passive integrated radon-thoron discriminative detector is used for measuring indoor andoutdoor radon concentrations in dwellings. In the present study, not only these results but also other importantparameters such as radon flux density, ambient dose rate and natural radionuclide concentrations, which have apotential relation with outdoor radon concentration around the measured sites are shown.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1205

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P1_4F-O11

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 15:45-16:00

Evolution in phase composition and morphology of volcanic aerosols during transport:
the Eyjafjallajoekull plume 2010
Bernard Grobety1 , Mario Meier1 , Cedric Botter1 , Konradin Weber2 , Andreas Vogel2 , Christian Fischer2
1

Dep. of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Switzerland, 2 Lab. for Environmental Measurement
Techniques, University of Applied Sciences, Duesseldorf, Germany
E-mail: bernard.grobety@unifr.ch

To assess the impacts of volcanic aerosol on the environment and anthropogenic activity, the physico-chemical
properties of the particles have to be known. Such information is usually drawn from samples taken on the groundor indirectly from remote sensing. Ground samples reflect only a deposited fraction of the aerosol. Remote sensing
allows to extract grain size distribution of an volcanic aerosol assuming monophasic, spherical aerosol particles.
Ash dispersal models are also based on same assumptions. Volcanic aerosols, however, are usually composedof more than one phase, each with a distinct density and preferred shape. In general, the main components areglass particles, phaenocrysts of minerals, which have crystallized before the eruption occurred, particles, which
are formed through resublimation of volatile components, and externally mixed particles composed of the previous
components. Particles of same size may have different travel distances because of differences in density and/or
shape. During transport, therefore, not only the average size of particles but also the phase composition and themorphological character of a volcanic aerosol will change.
When assessing the societal and environmental impact of a volcanic plume these continuous physico-chemicalchanges will ultimately have to be taken into account. The eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull 2010 and the entrainmentof its plume into European airspace gave the possibility to sample a volcanic aerosol after several thousands ofkilometers of transport both in the air and on the ground. We compared the mineralogical composition and themorphology of particles of the following samples: 1) collected from an air filter of a piston- engined plane, which
entered the plume close to the crater, 2) resuspended particles sampled at 20 km from Eyjafjallajoekull, and 3)
taken from an airplane, which crossed the plume over the Dutch-German border. A clear change in mineralogy andmorphology could be observed. The airborne samples sampled in Europe are impoverished in phaenocrysts. This
reflects most probably the difference in density between the volcanic glass and the phaenocrysts. The aspect ratioof the particles evolves also during the transport. Particles with high aspect ratio are almost absent in the plumeover Europe. Possible explanation is the higher specific surface of such particles, which will enhance the tendencyof aggregation. The average physical properties of the aerosol thus changes with transport. The average hardnessof the aerosol, important to assess the mechanical impact on airplane components, decreases with transport.
Particles with high melting points e.g. olivine and pyroxene phaenocrysts are also decreasing in concentration withtransport.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1206

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P1_4F-O12

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 16:00-16:15

A new tool for assessing the hazards from leachable elements in volcanic ash
Carol Stewart1 , Claire Horwell2 , Shane Cronin3 , Anke Zernack3 , Marco Brenna3 , Thomas Wilson4 ,Heather Bickerton4
1

Joint Centre for Disaster Research, GNS Science/Massey University, Wellington, New Zealand,Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, United Kingdom, 3 Volcanic Risk Solutions,
Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand, 4 Department of Geological Sciences, University ofCanterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand2E-mail: stewart.carol@xtra.co.nz

Volcanic eruptions can produce a wide range of hazards. Although volcanic phenomena such as pyroclastic density
currents and surges, sector collapses, lahars and ballistic blocks are the most destructive and dangerous, volcanic
ash is the most widely distributed eruption product and the most likely to be encountered by the public. Following
an eruption, the public, civil authorities and agricultural producers will have major concerns about the effects ofashfall on human and animal health, drinking water supplies, crops, soils and surface runoff. Freshly-erupted ash
contains a range of potentially toxic soluble elements, which may be released either rapidly or more slowly upon
contact with water or body fluids.
As part of the immediate emergency response, there should be rapid dissemination of information about thephysical and chemical properties of the ash and its hazardous potential. However, there is a wide range ofchemical components that can be tested for, which can lead to confusion about whether a health threat exists ornot. To address this uncertainty, an international working group has recently developed a protocol for the analysis of
volcanic ash samples to assess the hazard from leachable elements. The purpose of this protocol is to recommend
clear, standard and reliable methods for the rapid assessment of hazards from leachable elements. The four
applications developed to date are: a general purpose water leach, relevant to assessing impacts on drinking watersupplies, livestock drinking water and availability of soluble elements for plant uptake; assessing ingestion hazards
to livestock; assessing ingestion hazards to humans; and assessing respiratory inhalation hazards to humans. The
adoption of standardised methods should improve and facilitate the comparability of results among different studies
and enable the ongoing development of a global database of leachate information relevant for informing improved
volcanic health hazards assessment.
This presentation will outline the new protocol and describe its application to recent eruptions (4 June 2011 eruptionof Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcanic complex, Chile; and 6 August 2012 eruption of Mt Tongariro, New Zealand).

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1207

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P1_4F-O13

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 16:15-16:30

Assessing tephra impacts on agricultural systems: the case for standardisation of ananalysis protocol
Heather Craig1 , Thomas Wilson1 , Shane Cronin2 , Carol Stewart1 , Sally Gaw1 , Christopher Oze1
1

University of Canterbury, New Zealand, 2 Massey University, New ZealandE-mail: heathercraig.nz@gmail.com

Agricultural systems can be vulnerable to the physical and chemical impacts of tephra deposition. Accurate impact
assessment is needed to identify potential losses and provide support for farmers immediately after the eruption
and over the longer recovery period. Previous tephra fall events have shown that it is important to understand thephysical and chemical characteristics of the tephra, soil and depositional environment. Climatic conditions may also
be important in determining the impacts of tephra fall on agricultural systems. Data from previous events has shownthat agricultural losses have been predominantly due to the physical nature of the tephra, except in instances where
tephra has contained elevated concentrations of fluoride. To date some impact assessment studies have included
different analytical protocols to chemically and physically analyse tephra, leading to issues with the comparison andinterpretation of results across different industry and infrastructure groups and tephra fall events. A standard set of
methods for testing agricultural land and assessing the impacts after tephra fall is needed. We are developing astandard analysis protocol using information from previous impact assessments and laboratory experiments. This
protocol will identify the tephra and soil properties and any climatic characteristics that need to be quantified andthe most accurate methods to use. The creation of a standard protocol will streamline the analysis process andprovide greater comparative and transparent analysis of results for each tephra fall and between different tephra
falls. This will enhance stakeholder’s ability to decide the most effective mitigation strategies.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1208

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P1_4F-O14

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 16:30-16:45

Health effects of volcanic activities of Mt. Sakurajima
Suminori Akiba
Kagoshima University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Sciences, Japan
E-mail: akiba@m.kufm.kagoshima-u.ac.jp

Mt. Sakurajima in Kagoshima, Japan is located close to metropolitan areas, and is one of the most active volcano
in the world. At the time of a large eruption in 1914, lave discharged by the volcano connected the Island of Mt.
Sakurajima to the Ohsumi Peninsula. Since then, it has become active every 10-30 years. Relatively active periods
were around 1935, 1946, 1956-67, and the period between 1972 and 2001 with it peak in 1985. In recent years, it
has become active again and, in 2011, it erupted more than 1000 times a year. In 2012, the number of eruptions
decreased but still it erupted nearly 1000 times a year. Mt Sakurajima disgorges various dusts and gases, including
sulfur dioxide, silica and radon gases. This paper, which is to be presented at the session on various volcanic
activities and their health consequences of major volcanoes in Japan, will review studies of the chronic healtheffects of the volcanic activities of Mt. Sakurajima, including our recent study, which showed an increase of lungcancer in the vicinity of this volcano.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1209

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P2_4F-O15

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 17:00-17:15

Therapeutic and health promoting effects of rehabilitation with balneotherapy
Shuji Matsumoto
Kagoshima University, Japan
E-mail: shushu@m.kufm.kagoshima-u.ac.jp

Balneotherapy for patients with disabilities is one of the oldest forms of rehabilitative therapy. Balneotherapy
includes several modalities of treatments and wellness programs, such as physiological and pharmacologicaleffects of warm water bathing and aqua-exercise, relaxing and biorhythm adjusting effects of staying in the urban
climates and educational instruction for healthier life style. In order to examine the effects of balneotherapy forpatients with disabilities, our rehabilitation methods in combination with balneotherapy were reviewed. 1) Effects ofwarm water bathing of hemiplegic lower limb on its isokinetic muscle strength were studied in twelve chronic stroke
patients (53.3 +/- 14.2 y.o.). Peak torque of the knee flexions at any velocity increased after warm water bathing.
Change in the maximum power and total work were similar to that of the peak torque. Warm water bathing mightmake it easy to exert their muscle strength at l20 degrees/sec in flexion corresponding to their severity of theirhemiplegia. 2) Nine hemiplegic patients participated in the second study (56.9 +/- 16.6 y.o.). Participants sat in arelaxed position on a chair, and dipped the affected forearms into warm water at 40 degrees C for 15 minutes. After
forearm bathing, the simple test for evaluating hand function score increased significantly, the resistance powerof elbow extension at 90 degrees/min decreased significantly. Forearm bathing appeared to improve function anddecrease spasticity in hemiplegic hands. This treatment might facilitate hand rehabilitation. 3) The aim of third study
is to assess the efficacy of exercise baths on quality of life (QOL). 49 subjects (20 patients with brain disease, 21
patients with orthopedic disease, and 8 patients with other diseases) were first treated by conventional rehabilitation
comprising physical therapy and occupational therapy for 4.2 +/- 1.4 weeks. Exercise baths were then added to therehabilitation program for a further 4.4 +/- 1.2 weeks. QOL was evaluated by alterations in the MOS Short-Form
36-item Health Survey (SF-36). We defined the period from admission to exercise bath start as Treatment I, andthe period from exercise bath start to discharge as Treatment II. On admission, before and after exercise bath,
QOL was evaluated using the SF-36 scores. We found that the increase of all eight subscales of the SF-36 wassmaller in Treatment I period than in Treatment II period. It was concluded that exercise baths are an effective
non-pharmacological treatment that might facilitate rehabilitation programs.
We observed beneficial effects of balneotherapy on controlling the spasticity of hemiparetic limb, in accomplishingrepetitive facilitation exercise that strengthen neural circuits, and on the quality of life in patients with stroke andorthopedic patients. Rehabilitative treatment in associated with both neuro-rehabilitation and traditional spa therapy
will develop and contribute to welfares of the people.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1210

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P2_4F-O16

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 17:15-17:30

Prognosis for survival in burns victims rescued from dilute pyroclastic density currents
at Merapi volcano, Indonesia
Peter J Baxter1 , Ken W Dunn2 , Susanna Jenkins3 , Jean-Christophe Komorowski4 , Barry Voight5
1

University of Cambridge, UK, 2 Manchester Burn Service, UK, 3 University of Bristol, UK, 4 Institut dePhysique du Globe, France, 5 Penn State University, USA
E-mail: pjb21@medschl.cam.ac.uk

Clinical details of 106 burns victims who survived to reach hospital in three lethal eruptions of Merapi on 22
November 1994, 26 October and 5 November 2010 were available for analysis of the probability of surviving theirinjuries using age, sex and burn extent (% total body surface area).as prognostic indicators. In the 1994 eruption, 63
reached the Dr Sardjito Hospital, Yogyakarta, of whom 19 survived to leave hospital. In 2010, 43 were hospitalizedwith only 4 survivors in the 26 October event and 18 survivors on 5 November; all were treated in the Sardjito
Hospital. The maximum PDC temperatures at the three eruptive events which occurred on the south flank of
Merapi were in the same range (200-300°C) and the distance (time) to hospital was similar. The 106 victims werematched with burns victims in the UK national burns database. The most accurate matches of the patients werewith grouped data in the revised Baux Index, the Abbreviated Burn Severity Index, and the Belgian Outcomes Burn
Index. These results suggest a more favourable prognosis of severe burns in PDC victims than expected.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1211

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P2_4F-O17

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 17:30-17:45

Future Icelandic eruptions and their potential health impacts in EuropePeter J Baxter1 , Susan C Loughlin2 , Claire J Horwell3
1

University of Cambridge, UK, 2 British Geological Survey, UK, 3 University of Durham, UK
E-mail: pjb21@medschl.cam.ac.uk

The six-week eruption of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 restored Icelandic volcanoes to the UK government
risk register and raised new interest in the respiratory health impacts of active volcanism affecting European
populations. Concern surrounds the future possibility of a larger Icelandic ash eruption with a longer duration
which might have immediate respiratory health effects and also raise questions about potential chronic health risks
and the preventative measures that would need to be considered. Of prime interest is the widespread air pollution
caused by fine particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5 and nano-particles), as well as sulphate aerosol, and whether the
toxicity of volcanic particles is comparable to that of particles from traffic emissions in urban air. A future eruption
on the scale of the Laki fissure in 1783 could potentially add sulphur dioxide to this list. This presentation will review
the collaborative work with volcanologists and other scientists that is currently underway to answer these questions,
including a review of the respiratory health impacts of Laki in 1783.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1212

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1P2_4F-O18

Room A6

Date/Time: July 21 17:45-18:00

What if a Laki-type eruption were to happen tomorrow?
Anja Schmidt1 , Bart Ostro2 , Kenneth S Carslaw1 , Graham W Mann3 , Marjorie Wilson1 , Thorvaldur
Thordarson4
1

School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, 2 California Office of Environmental
Health Hazard Assessment, Oakland, USA, 3 National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS),
University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, 4 School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
E-mail: a.schmidt@leeds.ac.uk

The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 and Grímsvötn in 2011 in Iceland not only alerted European governments
to the risks posed by volcanic ash but also to those that could arise from so-called low-probability, high-impact
sulfur-dominated volcanic events such as the 1783-1784 CE Laki eruption (Iceland).
Historical records show that the Laki eruption caused severe environmental stress and posed a health hazard
far beyond the borders of Iceland [1]. Given the reasonable likelihood of such an event recurring, it is important
to assess the scale on which a future eruption could impact society. We quantify the potential health effects
caused by an increase in air pollution during a future Laki-type eruption using an advanced global aerosol model(GLOMAP) together with concentration-response functions derived from modern epidemiological studies.
The concentration of particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 micrometers (PM2.5) is predicted to double
across central, western and northern Europe during the first three months of the eruption. Over land areas ofEurope, the current World Health Organization 24-hour air quality guideline for PM2.5 is exceeded on an additional
36 days on average (range 13-63 days) over the course of the eruption. Based on the changes in particulate
air pollution we estimate that between 139,000 and 144,000 additional cardiopulmonary fatalities could occur inEurope depending on the meteorological conditions [2]. Such a volcanic air pollution event would therefore be asevere health hazard, increasing excess mortality in Europe on a scale that likely exceeds excess mortality due toseasonal influenza.
We will also discuss hazard mitigation and response strategies as well as the challenges encountered when aiming
to quantify the potential health hazards posed by a long-lasting volcanic event in Iceland.

References:(1) Thordarson, T. and Self, S. (2003). JGR, 108(D1), 4011, doi:10.1029/2001JD002042.
(2) Schmidt et al. (2011). PNAS, 108, 38, 15710-15715, doi:10.1073/pnas.1108569108.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1213

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P1

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Volcanic health hazard: the acidification of seawater and trace metals accumulation
study in Blue Mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis). Vulcano Island (Italy)
Fulvio Boatta1 , Walter D’Alessandro2 , Antonina L Gagliano1 , Sergio Calabrese1 , Marcello Liotta3 ,Marco Milazzo1 , Francesco Parello1
1

DISTEM University of Palermo, Italy, 2 INGV Palermo, Italy, 3 DISTABIF University of Napoli, Italy
E-mail: fulvioboatta@gmail.com

Mussels are considered to be heavy metals bio-accumulators and, at least in coastal areas, represent a significant
part of the humans diet. Due to the fact that such animals could be breeding in active volcanic areas interested byacidification of seawater and increased mobility of heavy metals, the consumption of mussels could represent a
hazard for human health.
Acidification of seawater is due to the presence of submarine vents releasing abundant volcanic CO2-rich fluids. In
aquatic system gaseus CO2 dissolves and, hydrates to form weak carbonic acid, which is the main driver of natural
weathering reactions. The result of the CO2 increase is seawater acidification.
Vulcano Island, the southernmost of Aeolian Islands, is located in the Southern Tyrrhenian Sea (Italy),
approximately 18 miles off the NE coast of Sicily. Four geochemical surveys of the Levante Bay were carriedout in April - September 2011 and May - June 2012. The main physico-chemical parameters (T, pH, Eh, electric
conductivity) were measured at more than 70 sites and more than 40 samples for chemical analyses were collected
at representative points. Major and trace elements dissolved in water, the chemical composition of dissolved gases(He, H2, O2, N2, CH4 and CO2) and the isotopic composition of total dissolved inorganic carbon were determinedin the laboratory.
The bubbling CO2 produces a strong decrease in pH from the normal seawater value of 8.2 down to 5.5. In thearea close to the main degassing vents, characterized by very low pH, macroorganisms are absent. Further northin the bay, about 300 m from the main vents the pH of seawater is only slightly lower than normal ocean waters(pH 8.2 - 7.8) resembling conditions in equilibrium with the high atmospheric CO2 concentrations expected in thenear future up to the end of the century. Therefore environments like these, naturally enriched in CO2, are goodlaboratories to study the consequences of ocean acidification on aquatic biota. Furthermore acidification is tightly
linked with the mobility and bio-availability of heavy metals in sea water.
A Blue Mussels transplant experiment was done along the pH gradient in order to estimate the accumulation
capability in relationship with acidification of seawater. At the end of the experiment the mussels showed anincrease of concentration for some elements such as (Fe, As, Mo, V and Pb) with respect to blanks.
The present study provides important information about the best environmental management of active volcanic
areas such as Vulcano Island.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1214

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P2

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

New results and review of major and trace element output from worldwide passive
degassing volcanoes
Sergio Calabrese1 , Sarah Scaglione1 , Walter D’Alessandro2 , Francesco Parello1
1

University of Palermo, DiSTeM, Italy, 2 INGV sez. Palermo, Italy
E-mail: sergio.calabrese@gmail.com

Volcanic emissions represent one of the most important natural sources of trace elements into the atmosphere(e.g. As, Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, Sb, Tl and Zn), sequentially influencing the other geochemical spheres (hydrosphere,
lithosphere and biosphere). The human health hazard during episodic volcanic eruptions due to coarse andfine particles (2.5-10 and <2.5 µm) fall out like asthma and lung and respiratory disease is well documented.
Regarding passive degassing volcanoes, the harmful effect of fluorine fumigation are known both for vegetation(foliar necrosis) and human/animals (fluorosis), but only few study have been focused on the effects of potentially
toxic trace elements. From a literature review on metals output from active worldwide volcanoes, we found 37
publications (the first dating back to the 70’s), 13 of which relate to the Etna and the other include some of the world’s
most active volcanoes: Mt. St. Helens, Stromboli, Vulcano, Erebus, Merapi, White Island, Kilauea, Popocatepetl,
Galeras, Indonesian arc, Satasuma and Masaya. In general, the review shows that currently there are very few data
available. We compiled a database both for concentrations and fluxes of 59 chemical elements (major and trace),that allow us to define the compositional and output range. In this study we present unpublished results from Etna
(Italy), Turrialba (Costarica), Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo), Mutnovsky and Gorely (Kamchatka),
Aso Asama and Oyama (Japan). Concentrations of major and trace elements were obtained by direct samplingof volcanic gases and aerosols on filters. Sulfur and halogens were collected by using filter-packs methodology,
and analyzed by ion chromatography. Untreated filters for particulate were acid digested and analyzed by ICP-OES
and ICP-MS. Sulfur to trace element ratios were related to sulfur fluxes to indirectly estimate elementar fluxes.
Etna confirms to be one of the greatest point sources in the world. The Nyiragongo results to be also a significant
source of metals to the atmosphere, especially considering its persistent state of degassing from the lava lake.
Also Turrialba and Gorely have high emission rates of trace metals considering the global range. Only Mutnovsky
volcano show values which are sometimes lower than the range obtained from the review, consistent with the factthat it is mainly a fumarolic field. The accurate estimation of individual and global volcanic emissions of trace
metals is still affected by a high level of uncertainty. The latter depends on the large variability in the emission of thedifferent volcanoes, and on their changing stage of activity. Moreover, only few of the potential sources in the world
have been directly measured. This preliminary work highlights the need to expand the current dataset including
many other active volcanoes for a better constraint of global trace metal fluxes from active volcanoes.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1215

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P3

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Groundbased in-situ particle measurements in the nearfield of Grimsvoetn volcano,
Iceland 2011
Andreas Vogel1 , Konradin Weber1 , Christian Fischer1 , Tobias Pohl1 , Jonas Eliasson2 , vonLoewis
Sibylle3 , Kirsten Inga Lieke4
1

University of Applied Sciences, Germany, 2 University of Iceland, Iceland, 3 Icelandic Meteorological
Office, Iceland, 4 Technical University of Denmark, DenmarkE-mail: andreas.vogel@fh-duesseldorf.de

During the eruption period of Grimsvoetn volcano, a series of particle measurements where performed in the
direct near field of the eruption event. Two fixed monitoring stations in the south of Iceland (south westerly of theeruption event) are established to discriminate continuously the plume dispersion. Both stations in Skogar andHvolsvollur are approximately 150km linear away from the eruption event at two significant positions.

In situ particle characteristics were measured using a Grimm 107 optical particle counter (OPC). The OPCs
were able to detect particles in a size range between 0.25- 32 micron in 31 classes. By converting of the particle
size distribution with a refractive index correction a more detailled size distribution can be calculated.
The number concentrations, delivered by the OPCs, were converted to mass concentrations for TSP (Total
Suspended Particles), PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 which are important for limit values.

To characterize the measured particles, they were collected to filters for study the optical and chemical
properties. The results show the propagation of the particles and their changes of the size distribution during
the eruption event. The chemical property of the particles from this eruption event varies to the particles of theEyjafjallajoekull.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1216

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P4

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Volcanic ash hazard assessment In West Java, Indonesia using FALL3D computational
model
Mochamad Nugraha Kartadinata1 , Adele Bear Crozier2 , Ole Nielsen3 , Kristy van Putten4 , Anjar
Heriwaseso5 , Oktory Prambada6 , Nizar Firmansyah7
1Geological Agency, Indonesia, 2 Geoscience Australia, Australia, 3 Geoscience Australia, Australia,
Geoscience Australia, Australia, 5 Geological Agency, Indonesia, 6 Geological Agency, Indonesia,
7
Geological Agency, Indonesia

4E-mail: nugraha@vsi.esdm.go.id

Indonesia, a country with many active volcanoes, has experienced a great loss of life . Approximately 100,000
casualties had passed away over the past 200 years due to volcanic eruptions. It is featured by the highest
frequency of eruption magnitude of VEI 4 or larger during historical time. One of the eruption material produced
during eruption is volcanic ash.
Volcanic ash is the most widespread of all volcanic hazards and has the potential to adversely affect millions ofpeople in the densely populated islands of the Asia Pacific region. Volcanic ash represents a serious hazard
to many towns, cities and megacities (population in excess of 10 million) in the vicinity of active volcanoes indeveloping countries like Indonesia. Undertaking volcanic ash fallout hazard assessments is an important scientific,
economic and political exercise and of great importance to public safety, especially for communities on the many
densely populated islands of Indonesia.
No detailed information available for this region on the hazard threaten by volcanic ash from volcanoes that have not
erupted in recent times in particular. Therefore a clear need exists for computational models capable of accurately
predicting volcanic ash dispersal at ground level when coupled with field observations of historical or on-going
eruptive activity. The validation of the FALL3D has been nicely done in two volcanoes, Guntur and Tambora
volcanoes.
Modelling volcanic ash in four volcanoes in West Java (Gede, Guntur, Galunggung, and Ciremai) using
computational model FALL3D (an ADS model) as useful tool for assessing volcanic ash hazard. The parameters
employed in this modelling include grain size, density, and sphericity analyses combined with assume eruption
column heights (based on historical eruptions) as volcanological inputs along with topographical terrain data using
DEM, and meteorological input data.
We present volcanic ash hazard assessments and their impacts using deterministic and probabilistic approach. In
addition we model as well, predictive scenarios of ash load on the ground and ash concentration in the atmosphereat some flight levels in the context of aviation safety.

) Geological Agency, Indonesia, Jl. Diponegoro No. 57. Bandung 40122, Indonesia*) Geoscience Australia©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1217

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P5

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Using MODIS images for the monitoring of volcanic clouds of Mexican volcanoes (Volcan
de Colima and Popocatepetl)
Jose Carlos Jimenez-Escalona1 , Hugo Delgado-Granados2
1

ESIME U. Ticoman, Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Mexico, 2 Instituto de Geofisica, Universidad
Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico
E-mail: jjimeneze@ipn.mx

Mexico has two eruptive volcanoes since the early 90’s: Popocatepetl and Colima volcanoes. They are surroundedby cities, towns and villages, which are periodically being affected by ash fall and the impact on air quality due tothe presence of SO2. Besides, the aviation industry is also affected by the presence of ash and gases in theatmosphere and the bulk deposition in its installations. In the case of Popocatepetl volcano a total of 120 airways
cross the volcanic clouds influnce area within 200 NM radius with an average of 388,000 annual operations. In asimilar area, at Colima Airport a total of 106 airways are affected by the volcanic clouds with an annual averageof 84,000 operations. On the ground, 21 airports do exist around Popocatepetl and 13 in the case of the Colima
volcano.
For this reason, the implementation of monitoring techniques of these volcanoes is of crucial importance for both,risk mitigation at nearby towns as well as warning for aviation operations that could be affected. Remote sensing
from satellite platforms are very useful tools. MODIS images has several advantages due to the wide spectrum of
detection with MODIS (36 bands), which allows to identify and monitor volcanic ash and SO2. Moreover, MODIS
has a time resolution of up to 4 frames per day because of the existence of two satellites with MODIS sensors(TERRA-I and AQUA-I).
This study shows the advances reached in the implementation of a monitoring methodology based on MODIS for
observing the Mexican volcanoes under eruption.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1218

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P6

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Automatic program of the detection of ash plume and estimation its height using local
seismicity
Vitaly Bliznetsov, Sergey Senyukov
Kamchatkan Branch of Geophysical Survey, Russia
E-mail: sva09@emsd.ru

Assessing volcanic hazards using remote methods, regardless of weather condition and the presence of observers,
remains rather critical today, especially for flight safety. Seismicity has long been one of the most commonly
monitored aspects of active volcanoes because of its 24 hours per day reliability regardless of weather. Kamchatkan
Branch of Geophysical Survey RAS began to use an original empirical method for detecting ash plumes andestimating plume heights using local seismicity in 2003. We collected many video, photo and visual data of ash
plumes. Our database includes the ash plumes and corresponding seismic signals for four active volcanoes in
Kamchatka. Sheveluch data includes more than 350 events, Karymsky data is more than100, Kizimen data is morethan 20, Bezymianny data is 9. To detect seismic signals, corresponding to ash plumes, we use a program (author
is Dmitry Droznin), which allows us to study a spectral of seismic signal and to calculate the integral of absolute
ground velocity for ash plume height estimation. Since June 2012 our laboratory began to use the automatic
program (author is Vitaly Bliznezov) to detect ash plumes from seismic data, which run every 15 minutes. This
program uses the seismic signal amplitudes after application of band-pass filters and calculates the frequency
index FI. FI is equal of decimal logarithm of the ratio the amplitude of high frequency band to the amplitude of low
frequency band. This index FI allows to detect 75 percent of all ash plumes. Height H of ash plume is estimatedfrom H=K*FI*(A*lnA - A), where K is the coefficient, FI is the frequency index, A is amplitude of signal, lnA is natural
logarithm of the ratio of the amplitudes of any two successive peaks. Retrospective analysis of the ash plumes ofSheveluch allowed to estimate the coefficient of correlation between real observed by video system height of plumeand the height calculated by the program. The coefficient of correlation is equal 0.69 for 240 events, which wereregistered by video observation since 2007. The use of this program in real-time monitoring allowed to detect andto estimate correctly new strong explosive eruptions of Bezymianny volcano on September 01, 2012, and of Plosky
Tolbachik volcano on November 27, 2012. Now this program controls the explosive events of active volcanoes(Sheveluch, Bezymianny, Plosky Tolbachik, Kizimen, Karymsky) and send the messages to laboratory staff byemail every 15 minutes. If an estimated ash plume height is more than 3500 m above sea level, programm send
special message.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1219

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P7

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Effects of SO 2 on the respiratory system in Miyakejima residents seven years after
returning to the island
Satoko Iwasawa1 , Tazuru Tsuboi1 , Takeshi Kochi1 , Makiko Nakano1 , Takamoto Uemura2 , Shigeru
Tanaka3 , Kazuyuki Omae1
1

Keio University, Japan, 2 Kyorin University, Japan, 3 Jumonji University, Japan
E-mail: iwasawa@a5.keio.jp

Background: Miyakejima Island is an island volcano 8 km in diameter, located 180 km south-southwest of Tokyo. In
the last 500 years, Mt. Oyama has erupted repeatedly every 50 years. The last eruption started in June, 2000, anddue to continuous eruptions and emissions of lethal/unsafe amounts of volcanic gas, the Miyake village government
decided to evacuate all the citizens from the island in September, 2000. At the time of the evacuation, the amountof discharge of sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), the major toxic component of the volcanic gas, was 50,000 tons/day. The
volcanic activity gradually decreased, but it has not ceased, and SO 2 discharge of 400 - 700 tons/day continues tobe observed as of January, 2013. In February, 2005, citizens began to return to live on the island despite the factthat volcanic gas was still being emitted.
Objectives: In this study, the health effects of exposure to the environment on Miyakejima Island following the liftingof the evacuation order in February, 2005, were investigated, first in February, 2006, and then in each November
from 2006 to 2011. The relationship between the amount of exposure to SO 2 and health effects was studied in
Miyakejima residents.
Method: The subjects of this study were registered residents of Miyakejima. A total of 4,089 check-ups for adults
and 1,005 check-ups for children were conducted. The mean values and percentages hourly values of 0.10 ppm or
more were obtained from 81 months of exposure concentration data obtained by fixed-point monitoring. Based onthese values, we used averages to categorize the inhabited area into 1 lower-SO 2 area and 2 higher-SO 2 areas,
namely, the Izu and Kamitsuki districts, referred to as Area L, the Igaya and Tsubota districts, referred to as Area
H-1, and the Ako district, referred to as Area H-2. Health effects were evaluated through pulmonary function tests.
Results: The average SO 2 concentrations in Areas L, H-1, and H-2 were 4.57, 18.9, and 26.1 ppb, respectively.
The rates at which the one-hour average SO 2 concentrations exceeded 0.1 ppm in Areas L, H-1, and H-2 were1.35, 4.16, and 5.80 %, respectively. The Air Quality Standard of SO 2 in Japan is 0.04 ppm or below for the daily
average of one-hour SO 2 concentrations and 0.1 ppm or below for the one-hour SO 2 concentration. The island asa whole has not yet achieved the standard.
In adult Miyakejima residents, there were significant differences in the %FVC and %FEV1 values observed in acomparison of pulmonary function by area. However, no significant difference was observed in a comparison overtime. By contrast, children showed no reduction in lung function.
Conclusions: Follow-up observation should be continued with a focus on the relationship between the amount of
exposure to SO 2 and health effects until the volcanic gas emissions have ceased.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1220

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P8

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

The present state of Miyakejima SO2 Gas Emissions and its Influence to Local
Communities
Yasuhiro Ishimine1 , Chihiro Kitahara2 , Yoshinari Hayashi2
1

Department of Health Crisis Management, National Institute of Public Health, Japan, 2 Faculty of
Safety Science, Kansai University, Japan
E-mail: ishimine@niph.go.jp

We will present an overview on the present state of volcanic gas emissions from Miyakejima volcano, Japan andits influences to the surrounding local communities. Miyakejima volcano has been emitting volcanic gas including
poisonous sulfur dioxide from the summit caldera since the eruptions in 2000. The peak value of the SO2 emissions
exceeded 70,000 tons per day in November 2000 and the SO2 concentrations more than 5ppm were often observedin the residential area in Miyakejima island at that time. This forced all of the 3800 residents to leave the island
during September 2000 and February 2005. The SO2 emissions are gradually decreasing and now they seldom
exceed 1,000 tons per day. The concentrations more than 2ppm is observed only 9 times at observation sites in
the residential area in 2012. At present, approximately 2800 people live in the island with careful monitoring of theirhealth conditions as well as the observations of environmental SO2 concentrations.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1221

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P9

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Clinical influences of an inhalation of volcanic ash from the massive eruption of Mt.
Shinmoedake in patients with obstructive lung disease
Yasuji Arimura1 , Akihiro Sakamoto1 , Chikara Fukuyama2 , Arisa Sano1 , Nobuhiro Matsumoto1 ,Masamitsu Nakazato1
1

Department of Neurology, Respirology, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Miyazaki
Hospital, Japan, 2 Department of Respirology, Medicalcity-Tobu Hospital, Miyazaki, Japan
E-mail: yasuji@fc.miyazaki-u.ac.jp

Background and objective:
It is controversial whether an inhalation of volcanic ash influences the control of chronic respiratory disease. We
evaluated physiological effects of an inhalation of the volcanic ash in patients with obstructive lung disease, during
the 2011 massive eruption of Mt. Shinmoedake, which is in the south part of the Kyushu island, Japan.
Methods:
The study was conducted as a cross-sectional analysis in adult patients with obstructive lung disease who lives
in the foot area of Mt. Shinmoedake, and the far area from the volcano. All participants, who visited the enrolled
medical institution on the day of the survey, filled out a self-reported questionnaire concerning about respiratory
symptoms, CES-D, which measures depressive symptoms, SF-8, which measures quality of life (QOL), andpatients’ characteristics such as address, sex, age, smoking status, and the average daily time of outdoor activity
after the eruption. Spirometry was performed after the questionnaire. The enrolled patients were classified into twogroups, which are the high or low ash exposured group, according to the average time of daily outdoor activity after
the eruption. Clinical or physiological parameters were compared between both groups.
Results:
One hundred-one patients (78 patients in the foot area and 23 patients in the far area) participated in this study.
Forty-six patients (45.5%) experienced exacerbation of any one of the respiratory symptoms after the explosive
volcanic eruption. In particular, approximately 30% of the participants complained of exacerbation of cough. No
statistical differences of the respiratory symptoms were observed between the foot and far area, and the low andhigh exposured group. In the foot area, CES-D score was significantly higher in low exposured group than the highexposured group (mean±SD: 14.3±10.3 vs. 9.9±7.7, respectively). There were no significant differences of thesummary score of SF-8 and the pulmonary function test between the high and low exposured group. Furthermore,
there were no remarkable differences of all parameters between the foot and far area.
Conclusions:
The worsening respiratory symptoms after explosive volcanic eruption were observed in about half of the patientswith obstructive lung disease. However, the statistically significant association between the extent of the exposureof volcanic ash and respiratory symptoms, QOL scores and the results of the pulmonary function test was not clear.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1222

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P10

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Observations by the JMA weather radar network and quantitative predictions oftephra-fall with the JMA RATM for the eruptions at Shinmoe-dake volcano in 2011
Toshiki Shimbori1 , Akihiro Hashimoto1 , Shin’ya Onizawa1 , Akimichi Takagi1 , Tetsuya Yamamoto1 ,Keiichi Fukui2 , Yosuke Hayashi3 , Shota Imamura3 , Akira Sugai3 , Yoshihiko Hasegawa3 , Reiko Kai4 ,Satoshi Sugiura4 , Tetsuyuki Ueyama4 , Toshiyuki Sakurai4 , Shomei Shirato4
1

Meteorological Research Institute, Japan, 2 Kakioka Magnetic Observatory, Japan, 3 Japan
Meteorological Agency, Japan, 4 Tokyo Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, Japan
E-mail: shimbori@mri-jma.go.jp

The JMA implemented the Volcanic Ash Fall Forecast in March 2008 and is considering the predictions of lapilli-fall.
The Tokyo VAAC has also been provided the Volcanic Ash Dispersion Chart for Sakurajima and Shinmoe-dakevolcanoes on trial since July 2010. The technical methods are based on the JMA Regional Atmospheric Transport
Model (RATM) driven by the GPVs of operational Mesoscale Model (MSM) or Local Forecast Model (LFM), both ofwhich originated from the JMA Nonhydrostatic Model (NHM).
The RATM for volcanic ash and others has been developed at the MRI (Shimbori et al., 2010; Saito et al., 2013).
This is an off-line Lagrangian model which considered the processes of three-dimensional advection, horizontal
and vertical diffusion, gravitational settling, dry deposition and wet scavenging. When using the GPVs of LFM(hourly intervals up to 9 hours, 2 km grid spacing, 60 hybrid layers), the number of tracers is 250,000 and thecalculation grid spacing of concentration or deposition is 2 km in latitude-longitude coordinate. For the quantitative
predictions of tephra-fall, the initial condition of RATM is given by the eruption column model according to Suzuki(1983). Variable input parameters of the model are eruption column height and duration.
In the case of the 2011 eruptions of Shinmoe-dake, one of the active volcanoes in the Kirishima volcano grouplocated in southwestern Japan, many eruption clouds were observed by weather radars. From the radar reflectivity
factor observed by JMA’s operational C-band weather Doppler radars at Tanegashima, Fukuoka and Kagoshima
airport, the time series of the eruption cloud echo heights have been analyzed in detail (Shimbori et al., 2013).
Hashimoto et al. (2012) showed that these radar observations yield effective initial data of the eruption column
model to well simulate the ash deposition pattern. In the presentation, results of RATM calculations using the radar
data will be shown with comparison to the observed ash-fall quantity and lapilli-fall area.

References
Hashimoto, A., T. Shimbori and K. Fukui, 2012: Tephra fall simulation for the eruptions at Mt. Shinmoe-dake during
26-27 January 2011 with JMANHM. SOLA, 8, 37-40.
Saito, K., T. Shimbori and R. Draxler, 2013: JMA’s Regional ATM calculations for the WMO technical task team on
meteorological analyses for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Extended abstract, 93rd Amer. Met.
Soc. Annual Meeting.
Shimbori, T., Y. Aikawa, K. Fukui, A. Hashimoto, N. Seino and H. Yamasato, 2010: Quantitative tephra fall prediction
with the JMA mesoscale tracer transport model for volcanic ash. Pap. Met. Geophys., 61, 13-29 (in Japanese).
Shimbori, T., T. Sakurai, M. Tahara and K. Fukui, 2013: Observation of eruption clouds with weather radars andmeteorological satellites. Submitted to Q. J. Seismol. (in Japanese).
Suzuki, T., 1983: A theoretical model for dispersion of tephra. Arc Volcanism. TERRAPUB, 95-113.
©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1223

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P11

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Numerical Simulation of Transport and Sedimentation of Volcanic Ash for the Eruptionsat Mt. Shinmoe-dake during 26-27 January 2011
Akihiro Hashimoto1 , Toshiki Shimbori1 , Keiichi Fukui2 , Akimichi Takagi1
1

Meteorological Research Institute, Japan, 2 Kakioka Magnetic Observatory, Japan
E-mail: ahashimo@mri-jma.go.jp

The tephra transport and sedimentation associated with the eruptions at Mt. Shinmoe-dake during 26 to 27
January 2011 are investigated with Japan Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM) in which themixing ratio and number concentration of tephra particles are prognosed to represent the behavior of tephra in
the atmosphere. In the model, one-dimensional eruption column model is applied in order to represent injectionof tephra particles into the atmosphere. The release of tephra is expressed by giving the production rates of total
mass and number of tephra particles in the grids that compose the column. The production rate is a function of
the column height, the level of the release point, and the size of released particle, following Suzuki (1983) and
Shimbori et al. (2010). In actual eruption events, the eruption clouds were detected by the Tanegashima andFukuoka radars of JMA as well as the high-sensitivity camera that is installed about 7.5 km away to the south of Mt.
Shinmoe-dake and monitored at Kagoshima Local Meteorological Observatory. Based on the results of radar andcamera observations (Shimbori et al., 2013), the temporal change of column height is given during the simulation.
Comparison of the model result with ground survey on tephra deposit shows that the model well represents the
major axis of tephra deposit and the difference in the grain size on both sides of the axis due to the shearedhorizontal wind and a variety of the fall velocity of tephra particles (Hashimoto et al., 2012). On the other hand, thesimulated ash cloud goes too far compared with the satellite observation after transported hundreds kilo meters
away from the volcano. This means that the long-transported fine particles are released at higher altitude in themodel than in the actual atmosphere, since the horizontal wind generally gets stronger in higher altitude. It is
indicated that the eruption column model applied in the simulation needs modification with respect to the release
rate of tephra particles as a function of the level of the release point and the size of released particle. The current
performance and the issues for improvement of the model will be discussed.

Hashimoto, A., T. Shimbori and K. Fukui, 2012: Tephra fall simulation for the eruptions at Mt. Shinmoe-dake during
26-27 January 2011 with JMANHM. SOLA, 8, 37-40.
Shimbori, T., Y. Aikawa, K. Fukui, A. Hashimoto, N. Seino, and H. Yamasato, 2010: Quantitative tephra fall
prediction with the JMA mesoscale tracer transport model for volcanic ash: A case study of the eruption at Asama
volcano in 2009. Pap. Met. Geophys., 61, 13-29.
Shimbori, T., T. Sakurai, M. Tahara and K. Fukui, 2013: Observation of eruption clouds with weather radars andmeteorological satellites: A case study of the eruptions at Shinmoe-dake volcano in 2011. Submitted to Q. J.
Seismol.
Suzuki, T., 1983: A theoretical model for dispersion of tephra. Arc Volcanism: Physics and Tectonics. TERRAPUB,
85-113.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1224

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P12

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Medical Preparedness for Next Large Eruptions of Sakurajima Volcano
Yasuhiro Ishimine
Department of Health Crisis Management, National Institute of Public Health, Japan
E-mail: ishimine@niph.go.jp

I will present an estimation of the damage due to next large eruptions of Sakurajima volcano that are as large as
Sakurajima Taisho eruption in 1914 and possible emergency medical responses against the disasters caused bythat kind of eruptions. While Sakurajima volcano in Kagoshima, Japan is erupting in small-scale Vulcanian stylemore than a thousand times a year in recent years, it has generated a large-scale eruption including the formationof Plinian plumes with 8000 meters in height and emissions of pyroclastic materials with styles of pyroclastic flows
and lava flows in 1914, which is often called "Taisho eruption" in Japan because it has occurred in the era of
Taisho emperor. The Taisho eruption resulted in 58 victims and the loss of more than 2,000 buildings partly due
to an accompanying earthquake with the magnitude of 6.1 occurred in Kagoshima area on the same day as the
beginning of the main phase of the eruption. I assume that the same phenomena as Taisho eruption would occur
in the present state, of populations, medical resources and the distributions of medical and evacuation facilities in
Kagoshima city and the surrounding area and estimate the possible responses to the volcanic disasters focusing
on emergency medical support.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1225

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P13

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Volcanic Ash Fall Forecasts of Japan Meteorological Agency and its improvement
Yoshihiko HASEGAWA1 , Akira SUGAI1 , Yosuke HAYASHI1 , Shota IMAMURA1 , Toshiki SHIMBORI2 ,Toshiyuki MATSUMORI1
1

Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan, 2 Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
E-mail: y-hasegawa@met.kishou.go.jp

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has issued Volcanic Ash Fall Forecasts (VAFFs) for the nation since
March 2008 in Japan. When an eruption which has an effect of ash-fall on wide area occurred, JMA will issue a
VAFF which has a graphical format and informs hourly ash fall areas predicted to 6 hours after from the event. JMA
issued VAFFs for the 2009 Asamayama eruption, the 2011 Kirishimayama Shinmoe-dake eruptions and recent
eruptions of Sakurajima.

It is well known that effects of ash-fall varies with ash-fall quantity and differs among fields such as agriculture,buildings, communication networks, transportation, and so on. Although JMA must inform prediction data ofash-fall quantity on VAFF primarily, we have not been able to do because the JMA’s prediction technique of ash-fallquantity, that is the prediction of tephra-fall with the JMA Regional Atmospheric Transport Model, has insufficient
prediction accuracy at present.

Meanwhile, the recent development of the JMA’s prediction technique with improvement of measurement
technique of volcanic plume height using weather radar data by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) (Shimbori
et al., in this session) enabled JMA to inform prediction data of ash-fall quantity on VAFF.

Therefore, JMA plans to improve VAFF on the basis of not only use of the new prediction technique but
also user’s needs from the research for people living near active volcanoes and opinions from experts of various
fields about volcanic ash-fall such as volcanology, disaster prevention, broadcasting, medical service, and so on.

Characteristics of new VAFF are as follows.
- On new VAFF, JMA informs not only prediction data of ash-fall quantity but also that of centimeter-sized lapilli-fallarea.
- On new VAFF, JMA also informs effects of ash-fall for people and its preparedness of people to predicted ash-fallquantity.
- New VAFF has 3 types of information: information issued before an eruption, quick and brief information issued
just after the eruption and full information issued after the eruption.
- JMA will issue a new VAFF when predicted ash-fall quantity reaches effective level for people or community.
- JMA will make a category table of ash-fall quantity as to effects of ash-fall for people and its preparedness ofpeople, and use this table for new VAFF.

JMA aims to issue new VAFF a few years later.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1226

IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly - July 20 - 24, Kagoshima, Japan
Forecasting Volcanic Activity - Reading and translating the messages of nature for society

1W_4F-P14

Date/Time: July 21 Poster

Environmental impact of acid river neutralization system in the Kusatsu hot spring area,
Gunma, Japan
Yoshikazu Kikawada
Faculty of Science and Technology, Sophia University, Japan
E-mail: y-kikawa@sophia.ac.jp

The Kusatsu hot spring area, located at the eastern foot of the Kusatsu-Shirane volcano, is one of the most famous
spa resorts in Japan and originates in hydrothermal activities of the Kusatsu-Shirane volcano. The springs are allstrongly acidic, and some of them show relatively high arsenic concentration. Rivers in this area are also all acidic
due to acidic hot spring water flows. The Gunma prefectural government started a river water neutralization system
to improve water quality downstream in 1964. Today, the system is operated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure
and Transport. Neutralizer prepared by mixing powdered limestone particle with river water is poured directly into
the river. Neutralization results in several thousand tons of neutralization products and other suspended materials
being accumulated annually in the Shinaki dam reservoir. Sediment of Shinaki Dam is continuously dredged bywater pump to prevent water and sediment from overflowing. After dehydration by a filter press, dredged sedimentis dumped at local dedicated disposal sites. Disposal processes are comprehensively monitored due to the arsenic
and other heavy metals contained in sediment. In this study, facts about environmental impact of the acid river
neutralization system were investigated.
Sediments of Shinaki dam partly contain 1000 to 2000 mg/kg of arsenic in wet basis. The results of the modified
BCR sequential extraction procedure on sediment core samples in the dam suggest that arsenic in bottom layer
coexist with reduced iron minerals like iron sulfides as As(III) under anoxic conditions while that in surface layer
coexist with iron(III) oxyhydroxide minerals, which are probably original forms of neutralization products, as As(V).
Dumped sediments in the disposal sites contain around 500 mg/kg of arsenic. The results of leaching experimentwith sediment core samples of the disposal sites in pure water reveal that the possibility of dissolution of As(V) fromthe sediments dumped with cement type solidifier. On the other hand, only trace amounts of As(III) were leachedfrom the sediments dumped without the solidifier. Disposal processes thus strongly affect mobility of arsenic in
disposal sites.

©IAVCEI 2013 Scientific Assembly. All rights reserved.

1227