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Inflation: beyond transitory
2021/11/04

  Summary
Inflation has made a forceful comeback recently, and we believe it will last longer than the financial
markets and many investors currently anticipate. In part one of a two-part paper, we look at the factorsthat may cause a more persistent rise in consumer price inflation – and why it matters to investors.
Key takeaways:
The recent inflation spike has been amplified by several extraordinary and temporary factors –including the post-Covid rebound and base effects
But there are other reasons why consumer price inflation may turn out to be “sticky” – including
continued accommodation from central banks, less globalisation and an aging population
We also expect the fight against climate change and economic inequality to contribute to upward
inflationary pressure

The inflation spike is real – and it may last for some time
After years of subdued price pressure and a brief disinflationary bout early in the Covid-19 pandemic, global inflation has made a forceful comeback. Consumerprices in OECD countries rose by 4.3% from August 2020 to August 2021 – the fastest pace in 13 years.1
But contrary to the market consensus, we believe that only part of the inflation spike is transitory. To be sure, some of the recent rise in inflation is a byproduct of
the sharp post-Covid economic recovery, powered by unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus, lingering pent-up demand and surging commodity prices. The
inflation spike has also been amplified by several extraordinary and temporary factors – including base effects, tax effects and supply-side bottlenecks.
Yet in our view, there are cyclical and structural forces at work that could lead to a more persistent rise in goods and service inflation in the years ahead.
Importantly, we believe this increase could be notably more than what the financial markets and many investors currently anticipate. We expect inflation toregularly reach and at least temporarily overshoot central banks’ targets over time. That makes it worthwhile to take a deeper look at the factors that are driving
inflation higher.

Eight factors driving inflation higher表示 1. Central banks’ reaction function is changing



2. Excessive policy stimulus is threatening the independence of central banks

2. Excessive policy stimulus is threatening the independence of central banks

3. “Slowbalisation” and protectionism are growing

4. Favourable demographics are in decline as populations age



5. Much-needed efforts to reduce inequality could also be inflationary6. Housing-related consumer price inflation hasn’t yet surged – but it may soon

7. Stronger economic growth means more jobs – but also higher inflation



8. The fight against climate change could lift medium-term inflation

Learn more about the implications for investors
Taken together, these eight factors make a compelling argument as to why consumer price inflation may turn out to be more sticky than what the market
currently anticipates. As a consequence, it may be a good idea to hedge against the risk of a persistent rise in inflation. In part two of this two-part paper, we share
the results of our proprietary analysis into the asset classes that may provide an optimal inflation hedge.

 FIND OUT MORE ABOUT HOW INVESTORS CAN GUARD AGAINST LASTING INFLATION DOWNLOAD THE PDF VERSION
1

Source: OECD as at August 2021. OECD is the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

2

When consumers, corporations and other parties expect inflation to remain steady, their “anchored” inflation expectations help central banks maintain price stability. If inflation

expectations are de-anchored to the downside, the markets think inflation will be lower than the central banks’ target level.
3In the US, the multi-year growth in broad money supply now exceeds the multi-year growth in real GDP by a wide margin. Historically, this measure of excess liquidity has also coincided witha rise in consumer-price inflation.
4

They do this by pegging interest rates at artificially low levels to reduce the costs of servicing sovereign and private debt.

5This also has the added political aim of helping countries ensure the domestic supply of critical products, which increases their strategic self-sufficiency.

6

For a deeper discussion of the demographic impact on inflation see, for example, Goodhart, C., Pradhan, M. (2020): “The Great Demographic Reversal” and Juselius, M. and Takáts, E. (2018):“The enduring link between demography and inflation”
7

The precise mechanism linking high inequality and low inflation remains unclear, but one driver is that lower-income households tend to consume more. Higher consumer spending tends topush up inflation, all else equal.
8

Other factors pushing up gas prices include supply-side constraints and a generally higher demand for energy.

Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Equities have tended to be volatile, and do notoffer a fixed rate of return. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bondstrategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bond prices will normally decline as interest rates rise. The impact may be greater with longer-duration bonds. Credit risk reflects theissuer’s ability to make timely payments of interest or principal—the lower the rating, the higher the risk of default. Emerging markets may be more volatile, less liquid, less transparent, andsubject to less oversight, and values may fluctuate with currency exchange rates. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. This is a marketing communication. It is for
informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or asolicitation of an offer to buy any security.
The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. Certain data used are derived
from various sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the data is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from theiruse. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted.
This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authorities. In mainland China, it is used only as supporting material to the offshore investment products offered by commercial banks
under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme pursuant to applicable rules and regulations. This document does not constitute a public offer by virtue of Act Number 26.831 of theArgentine Republic and General Resolution No. 622/2013 of the NSC. This communication's sole purpose is to inform and does not under any circumstance constitute promotion or publicity ofAllianz Global Investors products and/or services in Colombia or to Colombian residents pursuant to part 4 of Decree 2555 of 2010. This communication does not in any way aim to directly orindirectly initiate the purchase of a product or the provision of a service offered by Allianz Global Investors. Via reception of his document, each resident in Colombia acknowledges andaccepts to have contacted Allianz Global Investors via their own initiative and that the communication under no circumstances does not arise from any promotional or marketing activities
carried out by Allianz Global Investors. Colombian residents accept that accessing any type of social network page of Allianz Global Investors is done under their own responsibility andinitiative and are aware that they may access specific information on the products and services of Allianz Global Investors. This communication is strictly private and confidential and may not
be reproduced. This communication does not constitute a public offer of securities in Colombia pursuant to the public offer regulation set forth in Decree 2555 of 2010. This communication andthe information provided herein should not be considered a solicitation or an offer by Allianz Global Investors or its affiliates to provide any financial products in Brazil, Panama, Peru, andUruguay. In Australia, this material is presented by Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Limited (“AllianzGI AP”) and is intended for the use of investment consultants and otherinstitutional/professional investors only, and is not directed to the public or individual retail investors. AllianzGI AP is not licensed to provide financial services to retail clients in Australia.
AllianzGI AP (Australian Registered Body Number 160 464 200) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Foreign Financial Service License under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)pursuant to ASIC Class Order (CO 03/1103) with respect to the provision of financial services to wholesale clients only. AllianzGI AP is licensed and regulated by Hong Kong Securities and6. Housing-related consumer price inflation hasn’t yet surged – but it may soon

7. Stronger economic growth means more jobs – but also higher inflation



8. The fight against climate change could lift medium-term inflation

Learn more about the implications for investors
Taken together, these eight factors make a compelling argument as to why consumer price inflation may turn out to be more sticky than what the market
currently anticipates. As a consequence, it may be a good idea to hedge against the risk of a persistent rise in inflation. In part two of this two-part paper, we share
the results of our proprietary analysis into the asset classes that may provide an optimal inflation hedge.

 FIND OUT MORE ABOUT HOW INVESTORS CAN GUARD AGAINST LASTING INFLATION DOWNLOAD THE PDF VERSION
1

Source: OECD as at August 2021. OECD is the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

2

When consumers, corporations and other parties expect inflation to remain steady, their “anchored” inflation expectations help central banks maintain price stability. If inflation

expectations are de-anchored to the downside, the markets think inflation will be lower than the central banks’ target level.
3

In the US, the multi-year growth in broad money supply now exceeds the multi-year growth in real GDP by a wide margin. Historically, this measure of excess liquidity has also coincided witha rise in consumer-price inflation.
4

They do this by pegging interest rates at artificially low levels to reduce the costs of servicing sovereign and private debt.

5This also has the added political aim of helping countries ensure the domestic supply of critical products, which increases their strategic self-sufficiency.

6

For a deeper discussion of the demographic impact on inflation see, for example, Goodhart, C., Pradhan, M. (2020): “The Great Demographic Reversal” and Juselius, M. and Takáts, E. (2018):“The enduring link between demography and inflation”
7

The precise mechanism linking high inequality and low inflation remains unclear, but one driver is that lower-income households tend to consume more. Higher consumer spending tends topush up inflation, all else equal.
8

Other factors pushing up gas prices include supply-side constraints and a generally higher demand for energy.

Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Equities have tended to be volatile, and do notoffer a fixed rate of return. Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bondstrategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bond prices will normally decline as interest rates rise. The impact may be greater with longer-duration bonds. Credit risk reflects theissuer’s ability to make timely payments of interest or principal—the lower the rating, the higher the risk of default. Emerging markets may be more volatile, less liquid, less transparent, andsubject to less oversight, and values may fluctuate with currency exchange rates. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. This is a marketing communication. It is for
informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or asolicitation of an offer to buy any security.
The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. Certain data used are derived
from various sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the data is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from theiruse. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted.
This material has not been reviewed by any regulatory authorities. In mainland China, it is used only as supporting material to the offshore investment products offered by commercial banks
under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors scheme pursuant to applicable rules and regulations. This document does not constitute a public offer by virtue of Act Number 26.831 of theArgentine Republic and General Resolution No. 622/2013 of the NSC. This communication's sole purpose is to inform and does not under any circumstance constitute promotion or publicity ofAllianz Global Investors products and/or services in Colombia or to Colombian residents pursuant to part 4 of Decree 2555 of 2010. This communication does not in any way aim to directly or
indirectly initiate the purchase of a product or the provision of a service offered by Allianz Global Investors. Via reception of his document, each resident in Colombia acknowledges andaccepts to have contacted Allianz Global Investors via their own initiative and that the communication under no circumstances does not arise from any promotional or marketing activities
carried out by Allianz Global Investors. Colombian residents accept that accessing any type of social network page of Allianz Global Investors is done under their own responsibility andinitiative and are aware that they may access specific information on the products and services of Allianz Global Investors. This communication is strictly private and confidential and may not
be reproduced. This communication does not constitute a public offer of securities in Colombia pursuant to the public offer regulation set forth in Decree 2555 of 2010. This communication andthe information provided herein should not be considered a solicitation or an offer by Allianz Global Investors or its affiliates to provide any financial products in Brazil, Panama, Peru, andUruguay. In Australia, this material is presented by Allianz Global Investors Asia Pacific Limited (“AllianzGI AP”) and is intended for the use of investment consultants and otherinstitutional/professional investors only, and is not directed to the public or individual retail investors. AllianzGI AP is not licensed to provide financial services to retail clients in Australia.
AllianzGI AP (Australian Registered Body Number 160 464 200) is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian Foreign Financial Service License under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)pursuant to ASIC Class Order (CO 03/1103) with respect to the provision of financial services to wholesale clients only. AllianzGI AP is licensed and regulated by Hong Kong Securities andFutures Commission under Hong Kong laws, which differ from Australian laws.
This document is being distributed by the following Allianz Global Investors companies: Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC, an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities andExchange Commission; Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, distributor registered with FINRA, is affiliated with Allianz Global Investors U.S. LLC; Allianz Global Investors GmbH, aninvestment company in Germany, authorized by the German Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin); Allianz Global Investors (Schweiz) AG; Allianz Global Investors Asia
Pacific Ltd., licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission; Allianz Global Investors Singapore Ltd., regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore [Company Registration
No. 199907169Z]; Allianz Global Investors Japan Co., Ltd., registered in Japan as a Financial Instruments Business Operator [Registered No. The Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau(Financial Instruments Business Operator), No. 424, Member of Japan Investment Advisers Association and Investment Trust Association, Japan]; and Allianz Global Investors Taiwan Ltd.,
licensed by Financial Supervisory Commission in Taiwan.

1868719 | COMM-432

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