Study Group on “Medium- to Long-term Prospects for Japan-US-China Relations”
May 27, 2011

[Overview of Research]
International relations in the Asia-Pacific region (Greater Asia) are being pursued today inthe context of a complex regional order characterized by both cooperation and competition.
The conclusion of free trade agreements is deepening economic interdependence even as
China’s rapid rise is altering the power relationships in the Asia-Pacific region (causing apower transition) and changing military/security relationships substantially. These changes
in power relations have also compelled changes in the nature of the Japan-US alliance.

Akey issue for Japan at present is considering how best to address China’s economic andmilitary rise and the accompanying power transition and how to pro-actively involve itself inthe formation of a regional order.

The Study Group will focus in particular on the role ofregional institutions in the above issues, examine the involvement of Japan, the US, Chinaand ASEAN in regional institutions over recent years, and consider how Japan in future canhelp put together co-existing regional institutions.

When considering the tasks and direction of Japan’s foreign policy, thought must be given
not only to relations between states but also to the internal politics of individual countries.
The impact of domestic politics on foreign policy cannot be overlooked.

With anon-transparent regional order expected to continue, future scenarios concerning theregional order must also be postulated so that Japan can take on an active role rather thansimply reacting to whatever scenario turns out to be true. Japan must boost its value andpresence in Asia and, to that end, it should assist in putting together various bilateral andmultilateral institutions and ensure that these regional institutions combined as a “bundle”

1promote overall economic exchange. Japan should devise measures to divert
political/military confrontation and defuse disputes by encouraging countries to exercise
self-restraint.

The Study Group will endeavor to develop concrete policy recommendations

on the aforementioned issues.

[Overview of Activities]
The Study Group as a whole meets about once per month. Study Group meetings featurepresentations by specialists and progress reports on Study Group members’ research.
Through research, conducting interviews and carrying out surveys, Study Group members
prepare reports in their respective areas of responsibility, and these research findings are
made available to the broader public through symposiums and reports.

Threesubcommittees have been established to examine particular topics in greater detail, meetingon an irregular basis as necessity dictates.

These subcommittees are as follows.

Subcommittee No. 1: Subcommittee for Research on the Power Transition and theTransformation of International Relations (theoretical research)]
This Subcommittee examines in a theoretical fashion the transformations occurring in theinternational politico-economic order as a consequence of China’s rise, as well as likely
futuredevelopments.

Clarifying

themajortransformations

ininternational

politics/economics is a key issue for the Study Group’s project, and Asia is the region inwhich the power transition has had the most conspicuous effects.

Subcommittee No. 2: Subcommittee for Research on the Power Transition and Regional
Institutions in Asia
This Subcommittee looks at international relations in Asia, where the international power2

transition is reflected in the most radical fashion in international relations, particularly thoseamong Japan, the US, and China, and primarily examines the various institutions developed
to adapt to this power transition as well as the interrelations between these regimes.

Subcommittee No. 3: Subcommittee for Research on the Power Transition andJapan-US-China Relations
This Subcommittee examines medium- and long-term trends and scenarios inJapan-US-China relations, Japanese foreign policy issues and measures that should betaken in light of the transitions in international and regional power and the formation ofregional and ad hoc institutions to adapt to those transitions as well as developments inbilateral relations (institutions).

This research will also entail scrutinizing developments inJapan-US-China international relations within the broader context of the Asia-Pacific region.
In addition, the Subcommittee will discuss Japan’s policies toward the US and toward China.

[Study Group Members]Group Leader
YAMAMOTO Yoshinobu (Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo)
Group Members
UMEMOTO Tetsuya (Professor, University of Shizuoka)
OHASHI Hideo (Professor, Senshu University)
OYANE Satoshi (Professor, Doshisha University)
KAMIYA Matake (National Defense Academy of Japan)
KIKUCHI Tsutomu (Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University; Adjunct Fellow, Japan Institute ofInternational Affairs)
SASAKI Takuya (Professor, Rikkyo University)

3

SUKMA Rizal (Executive Director, Centre for Strategic and International Studies [Indonesia])
TAKAGI Seiichiro (Senior Associate Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs)
NAKAYAMA Toshihiro (Professor, Aoyama Gakuin University; Adjunct Fellow, Japan
Institute of International Affairs)
YAMAKAGE Susumu (Professor, University of Tokyo)
Group Members and Secretaries
SAIKI Naoko (Deputy Director General and Senior Research Fellow, Japan Institute ofInternational Affairs)
FUKUDA Tamotsu (Research Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs)
MATSUMOTO Asuka (Research Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs)
Research Assistant
TAKAZAWA Hiroshi (Research Assistant, Japan Institute of International Affairs)4