Panel of Opinions© Uliana | stock.adobe.com

125 YE ARS AT Z

What Kind of Automobile Will We
Be Driving 25 Years from Now?
When ATZ was founded 125 years ago, no one could have imagined that the newly invented automobile
would prove itself so quickly in everyday life and become so widespread. It rapidly conquered the firstplace as the means of transportation par excellence. But what will the future of mobility look like in aquarter of a century? The members of the ATZ Scientific Advisory Board provide their personal predictionsin this panel of opinions.

Most of the technologies I use in 2050 werealready known a generation ago. In everyday
life, an autonomous, electrically poweredrobo-taxi picks me up at my front door. It isconnected to my calendar
and various mobility services such as e-scooters,
bikes, trains or planes.
Artificial intelligenceorchestrates these services and considers
external conditions such as weather and traffic as well as personal preferences. The chassis system, which is balanced like a flying carpet, lets me relax while driving a car andwatch the streamed movie or work on thescreen. How all the vehicle’s dynamic movements are adjusted to my individual preferences according to the situation never ceases
to amaze me. It is not only
the operation with electricity from renewable energy
sources that is sustainable,
but also the production
and recycling of the vehicles. It’s exciting
how times change: Today, it takes me longer
to find an e-fuel charging station for my classic car than it did a generation ago with myfirst electric vehicle.

© ZF“Like traveling ona flying carpet”

Dirk Adamczyk
Senior Vice President Engineering
Solutions at ZF Friedrichshafen AG94www.springerprofessional.com/automotiveFor people living in modern megacities, theautomobile they use in 2050 will in most cases
be a driverless device that they have ordered
via the internet: Be it as an individual modeof transport with some personal comfort, be
it a kind of shared taxi that distributes pas­
sengers along flexible
routes to complement
public transport. Cities
are investing in digital
infrastructure, optimizing traffic flows and cutting back on private transport. Access to such areas withinternal combustion engines will be pro­hibited. In sparsely populated rural areas,
however, private transport will continue
to play a significant role. In contrast, thecost for privately used autonomous cars
will keep rising, such as for safety systems.
They need to be designed for energy efficiency and durability: Therefore, both software and hardware will receive regular
updates to keep cars safe and attractive
over a 20 to 30-year
life­span. Will users
still want to own thesecars? I’m convinced
we’ll see a larger di­­versification of vehicles according to user
profiles. Maybe, you’ll hold then on to an
automobile only for a number of days ormonths until choosing another one that
better suits your current human mobility
needs.

Sometimes, our ideas and expectations ofmobility in the future are strongly influencedby Hollywood movies. So, it hardly comes as
a surprise that more than one-third of people
in Germany cherish thedream of beaming. In 2022,
when we asked people in ourBosch Tech Compass survey
how they would most like toget from A to B in the future – regardless oftechnical feasibility – 39 % of them replied:“by beaming”. But for all this enthusiasm forthe idea of teleporting, which I also share, it’ssomething we will unfortunately not be able

© Rüdiger J. Vogel | Valeo“Many people won’t activelydrive anymore”

Joachim Mathes
Chief Technology Officer of Valeoto realize in the next 25 years. That said,
we’ve come closer to some other fictional
ideas that originated in Hollywood, things
such as flying taxis and increasingly automated driving. Both of themwill make more and moreinroads into the everyday
reality of mobility – though
not to the same extent everywhere in the world. And in Europe at least,
since we will have switched almost completelyto renewable energy in our energy sector by2048, we will by then be traveling sustainably
by bus, train, car and airplane.

© Bosch“Cherish the dreamof beaming”

Dr. Markus Heyn
Member of the Board of Management
and Chairman of the Mobility Business
Sector at Robert Bosch GmbH

With the UNICARagil and AUTOtech.agil
projects, we are today laying with numerous
universities and companies the foundations
for how we will be driving in 25 years’ time.
However, it depends on the right mixture.
Future mobility must be versatile in order tomeet most diverse
requirements and contribute to an inclusive
society. We will see thatthe term “automobile”
becomes much broader and will then also
include, for example, biohybrid micro-vehicles
with electrically assisted pedal drives, a mixture of today’s bicycle and passenger car. But,in future it will also comprise partially andhighly automated or driverless vehicles of vari-ous sizes, whether as passenger cars or shuttles
for public transportation or for transporting
goods. Between them, there will still be manually controlled vehicles and those where theusers will have the choice. With the introduction of steer-by-wire, inno­vative control concepts such as sidesticks
will also find their way, as
these enable completely
new in­­terior settings for avariety of usage scenarios. In order to make this diversity tangible, wehave realized vehicles with alternative actuator
concepts at my institute. In this way, we aremaking our contribution to a technology-open
future that enables freedom of choice andoffers attractive mobility options to everyone.

ATZ worldwide

07-08|2023   © ika“Offering freedom of choice
and attractive mobility”

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Lutz Eckstein
Director of the Institute for Automotive
Engineering (ika) of RWTH Aachen
University95

Panel of Opinions

The automobile has been shaping our individual mobility as a significant factor for well overa hundred years, and it will probably still be thecase in 25 years. Ford, as a player from the very
beginning, will focus on offering customers
vehicles that support the urge for freedom andadventure on the one hand,but being also sustainable, en­­vironmentally friendly, andsafe on the other hand. The
electric drive already offers
many possibilities, and will offer even morein 25 years, especially on the energy sourceside. Its direct-acting torque will raise customer
requirements in terms of driving pleasure toa different level, as will the demands for NVH
behavior and driving comfort. If today the con-nection to the road is the parameter for fun todrive, then it will be the quality of the isolation from disturbances and the newly resulting
opportunity for other activities. In addition,
powertrain electrification will enable smart
and cost-optimized systems on the chassis side.
In the past, the 12-V vehicle
electrical system was a limiting factor in the implementation of powerful active chassis systems. In the future thehigh-voltage drive unit will be able to provide
the needed energy. In 2050, however, the passenger car will continue to be an identification
factor for customers and drivers, even if the“fun to drive” will have given way to a certain
extent to the “fun to be driven”.

© Uli Regenscheit | ATZlive

125 YE ARS AT Z

“Fun to drive mustremain”

The fact that innovation cycles are becoming
shorter and shorter means that we will see
many vehicle generations and variants in thenext 25 years. In addition, whereas designand engine performance were once the crucial
selling points, interest in the concepts of service and content is now
growing apace. How willthese trends change theautomobile and its development? The car will
become a networked device in the “mobilityecosystem”. Passenger cars will become individualized, connected vehicles, with their digitalcontent making them people’s constant companions. Networking with the infrastructure of asmart city or with the help of roadside units willFrank Esser
Supervisor Advanced Driving AttributeMethods & Tools at Ford Werke GmbH

make additional data accessible to the vehicles,
based on which it will be possible to still expand
the range of services. High-tech and innovations
will continue to have highly emotional user
appeal, providing the vehicle manufacturers assoftware-driven companies with ideas for new
business models. De­­pending on their purpose, the range, degreeof automation or varietyof functions of manyvehicles are optimized for a defined applicationand performance. Being able to think in termsof a wide variety of derivatives and mass-produce vehicles of consistently high quality willbe the basis on which the vehicle manufacturers
will build their business models.

© Edag“Understanding mobility as aconnected ecosystem”

Heiko Herchet
Sales Vice President Software &Digitalisation at Edag EngineeringGmbH

The auto-mobile, from the Latin “itself mobile”,
is nearing its original self-driving meaning
and, in 25 years, is expected to move autonomously. It will have an electric drive withquickly replenishable en­­ergy reserves – irrespectiveof type. Emissions will be
low, as will particle andnoise levels. There will bemany varieties of commercial vehicle: fromsmall goods distributors to cabin-free, autonomous trucks with mega trailers for efficient
long-distance haulage. Intermodality will beseamless for passengers as well as freight.

Most transport movements will be orchestrated
in 4D and will be coordinated in both time andspace via traffic control computers. As driver
shortages will no longer be an issue, delivery
vehicles will get smaller
and more numerous offering flexibility. Besides
freight, people will also
be transported in large cities via autonomous pods and shuttles. Morethan half the vehicles on roads will be no private passenger cars but commercial vehicles.
Accidents will be rare, and statistics will showthat they largely involve classic cars.

96

© ZF

“There will be diverse
commercial vehicles”

Dr.-Ing. Thomas Dieckmann
Technology & Innovation Officer
at ZF Group Commercial Vehicle
Control Systems

www.springerprofessional.com/automotive

Privately used passenger cars will share a similar appearance to vehicles that are beingbrought to the market today. Form and function of today’s cars didn’t arise by chance but
are the result of decadesof evolution to serve theneeds of motorists.
However, two internal
revolutions will takeplace for vehicles, which are closely intertwined: The first revolution concerns the technical architecture of automobiles. Powerfulcomputers and software will be able to either
drive automatically or make manual driving

more confident and safer. When it comes topowertrain, the customer will be able to choose
from a wide range of fully electric drives andvarious combustion engines – depending onthe individual usage
profile. The second revolution concerns thecharacter of vehicles:
New drive technologies
enable new interior proportions. Car interiors
are becoming more spacious, more comfortable, offer more entertainment, are developing
into a living room – from a place to drive to aplace to live.

With the transformation of the commercial
vehicle industry, digitalization und automation will evolve successfully within the next
25 years. Only companies that show a continuously positive value
chain and CO2 balance
will be successful in themarket. Sustainability
will gain more importance due to eco-friendly
materials and the highest possible degree of zero-waste. Electrified
drivelines with storage systems and onboard
energy generators, which are yet to be de­­signed, will be trimmed on maximum costand energy efficiency with the help of AI pre-© Continental“Car interiors are developing
into a living room”

Dr.-Ing. Andree Hohm
Head of Innovation Line Driverless
Autonomous Mobility Business Area
at Continental

diction algorithms (for traffic, energy costs,maintenance, etc.). They will be standard aswell as fully automated systems running 24/7,
reaching their goal in a self-sufficient, efficientand quiet manner. Onthe road, loading andunloading of freight
will happen automatically and additionalcargo can be added,
which is offered on
intelligent, digital freight handling platforms.
Smart vehicles will be integrated in sophisticated infrastructure and flow of goods. Standardized carriage robots will deliver safely
transport containers into the city centers.

© MAN Truck & Bus“Smart vehicles areintegrated in a sophisticatedflow of goods”

Dipl.-Ing. Thomas Ille
Head of Predevelopment
at MAN Truck & Bus SE

In its younger days a means of transportation, today an ever-present and unobtrusivecompanion – the automobile. Very quietly
and inconspicuously, it anticipates all ourwishes. The passenger car of the present
and even more so theautomobile of tomorrow know the indi­vidual needs of theirdrivers, are connecteddigitally, and roll down the world’s roads as
cunning “smartphones on wheels”. It is clear
where the journey is headed. The future ofdriving is autonomous and thus safer. Today,
advanced driver assistance systems are alreadyhelping to minimize the risk of accidents. But

automated vehicles are also paving the way
for inclusive mobility and personal independence. They will soon be traveling between
buses, trains and airports completely as a matter of course, saving us the “extra mile”. Thereare environmental benefits too. By switching
to electric robo-taxis
in urban areas, weare making mobility
more flexible and climate-neutral. Conclusion:
In 25 years, AVL will still be supporting its
partners with the most innovative technology
solutions to optimally combine software andhardware – for a sustainable, safe, and inclusive mobility.

ATZ worldwide

07-08|2023   © AVL“The future of driving issustainable, safe, and inclusive”

Prof. Dr. hc. Helmut List
Chairman of the Board and CEOof AVL List GmbH97

125 YE ARS AT Z

Panel of Opinions

Automotive industry is in a period of transition, and we can expect to see considerable
changes over the next 25 years. Intelligent
mobility solutions will account for a significant
proportion of the portfolio of automobile manufacturers in the future. Although individual
mobility will continue to play an importantrole, vehicles will no longer represent only theconcept of mobility, butwill also become a key
component of the overall
ecosystem mobility. The
megatrends of digitalization and electric mobility as well as innovations in the field of connected and automateddriving will continue to have an impact. Autonomous driving will give rise to new vehicle
concepts, which will result in changes to thevehicle’s architecture, particularly in the inte-rior. In order to make semi-automated andautonomous driving possible and safe, safety
requirements will be become stricter and there
will be a further rise in the level of connectivity
in vehicles. Whether it is a question of vehicle
ownership or a sharing economy, the demands
placed on engineering services will increase.
This re­­quires technicalexpertise, well-groundedexperience, and inno­
vative strength. As aninternational engineering services provider,
we are convinced that
we will still be able to offer our customers theoptimum of solutions for all these challenges in
the future. And we will further accelerate technological progress through our development
work. In this way, we are making a relevant
contribution to a sustainable future.

Autonomous and connected driving will becommonplace in 25 years: Automobiles will
seamlessly integrate into the infrastructure,communicate witheach other and withother modes oftransport. Digitaland sustainablemobility concepts will bring about a new driving experience while being climate neutral.
Making this future a reality – not just inEurope, but worldwide – is the task of the© artofpoggel | Bertrandt“The demands placed onengineering services willincrease”

Michael Lücke
Member of the Management Board(Sales) of Bertrandt AG

German automotive and commercial vehicleindustry. We are driving this change withrecord investments and innovations: expertise, inventive
genius and passion
characterize ourindustry. To ensurethat we can not
only develop the mobility of the future, butalso put it on the road, politicians are called
upon to set the framework – an outstanding
infrastructure is crucial.

© VDA“Expertise and inventive genius
characterize our industry”

Dr. Marcus Bollig
Managing Director for Products &Value Creation at VDA

Fully networked and completely electricallypowered vehicles are no longer a pipe dream
but a reality. It is foreseeable that in 2048,
autonomous driving will also be the common
form of transport in personal vehicle traffic.
With huge benefits forthe environment, traffic
flow and safety. IAV has
outlined the mobility of
the future in its detailed
and digital so-called Future Book. What isclear is that cars will be emission-free, built inan emission-neutral way and be fully recyclable – and they will be much more individualin shape and color than today. Thanks toregenerative fuels, combustion-engine-based
automobiles can also continue operation in a
climate-neutral manner in certain regions.
The integration of the software-defined vehicle
with its environment anddigital services will be
perfected – and domains
such as navigation, infotainment and vehicle control will be completely
united. Of course, sharing
models, intermodal public transport and alternative modes of transport will reduce the number of private passenger cars, but the personally owned automobile will remain an important addition for many people in 25 years’ time.

98© Sonja Hornung | IAV“Navigation, infotainment
and vehicle control will becompletely united”

Dipl.-Ing. Sebastian Sinning
Executive Vice President for VehicleSolutions & Automated Driving at
IAV GmbH

www.springerprofessional.com/automotive