Guangzhou Low Carbon Society2030:
A win-win strategy for global climate change and sustainable development ofregional economy
Ying Huang, Yao Lu, PengWang, DaiqingZhao GIEC,CAS& YuzuruMatsuoka, Kei Gomi Kyoto University, JapanAs we entered the 21st century, the issue of energy security and global warming,due to anthropological activities, has aroused wide public concern. Among all the acts
tackled the problem, the low-carbon development method aiming at reducing thehuman footprint has received a greater recognition around the world; it is also the goalof the new era. Form the “low-carbon economy”, which defined as reducing theresource consumption and environmental impact to achieve higher economical profit,
to promoting a green way of living and developing a management model of
low-carbon society, the concept of low carbon has been promoted rapidly at all levelsof the society.
As a developing country, China is in an era of fast urbanization and its total GHG
emission is increasing. As a responsible country, China has shown a positive attitudein international state before Copenhagen COP 15, China announced its goal of
reducing GHG emissions: to reduce GHG emissions per unit GDP by 40 to 45% of2005 levels by 2020. How to solve the problem of high carbon-dependent economy
and high energy intensive development has become one of the greatest challenges for
China. Low carbon development is no doubt a new pathway for city sustainable
development. A lot of low-carbon “experiment city” planning is gradually developed.
Guangzhou, as the capital of Guangdong Province, is one of the most economical
active cities in China. However, the increase of total energy demand has not beeneffectively curbed due to rapid overall economic growth. The excessive use of coaland oil has brought great pressure on the environment. So developing low-carbon cityin Guangzhou can stabilize the increasing demand of energy; can benefit the industrial
competition; and also can reduce city air pollution and GHG emissions.
This analysis uses Extended Snapshot Tool (ExSS) development by Tokyo
University and Japan national environmental research institute. By quantifying
Guangzhou’s future developing scenario, we predict the social economy and GHG
emission level in 2030, in order to achieve the emission reduction goal and realize thepolicy implementation. Also, we aim to form a suitable methodology for low carbon
society research for Chinese cities, so that other cities can learn.
We selected 2005 as the base year. Considered the low carbon technology will be
more matured in 2020-2030, we selected 2030 as the target year for low carbon
society scenario, and also set two different types of development scenario, the BAU
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(Business As Usual) and CM (Counter Measured).
According to the model simulation results, the population of Guangzhou willreach 10.07 million people in 2030, GDP will be approximately 2.17 trillion RMB.
The energy consumption and GHG emission has a large mitigation potential byadoption of counter measures for mitigation. For the several numbers of measures, we
divided them into five actions.
Action 1: Convenient transportThis action comprises of a shift from private vehicles to public transportation bytraffic management system and efficiency improvement. The CO2 emission reduction
from this action contributes to 2% of total CO2 emission reduction.
Action 2: Green BuildingThis action focuses on measures of efficiency improvement and natural energy
utilization of two sectors (residential and commercial). The CO2 emission reduction
from this action contributes to 22% of total CO2 emission reduction.
Action 3: Decarbonation of Industry
Industry is presently the major sector of energy consumption and GHGemissions. This action comprises of two main action measures, namely, measures toimprove energy efficiency, and measures to restructure the industry. It can contribute
30% of total CO2 emission reduction.
Action 4: Fuel Switch
The “Fuel Switch” action aims to achieve energy saving and GHG emission
reduction through adjusting the fuel structure of industry, construction and transport.
It expects to achieve GHG emission reductions of 7%.
Action 5: Low-carbon Electricity
Power supply is one of the major sectors of GHG emissions. It will reduce 39%of GHG emissions through Low-carbon electricity action. This action comprises
efficiency improvement of power plant and fuel switch of electricity generation.

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