World BOSAI Forum
Sendai, Japan
27 November 2017

Regional cooperation in forecasting early warningand monitoring of typhoon

Chiashi Muroi
RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center
Japan Meteorological Agency

Contents• Introduction• RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center• Weather information chain• Impact-based forecast and early warning• Related activities• Future Plan
• SummaryINTRODUCTION

Tropical cyclones in 2015 and 2016
2015

2016

60šN

60šN

50šN

50šN

40šN

40šN

30šN

30šN
18
17

14

20šN

2008
19

22

10

10šN

2124
15
2706

20šN

23

1301
05

2502

16
1209

04

11

10šN

03
2607

0š

0š
100šE

110šE

120šE130šE

140šE

150šE

160šE

170šE

180šE

Tropical cyclones affected Japan in 2016 and 2017
Typhoon Lionrock left 20 people dead in Iwate
Prefecture and 2 in Hokkaido with 5 missing.

2016
Lionrock(1610)➢ 11 TCs approached(normal: 11.4 TCs / year)➢ 7 TCs affected(1607, 1609, 1610, 1611, 1612, 1616, 1618)➢ 6 TCs made landfall(1607, 1609, 1610, 1611, 1612, 1616)

12JST, October 21

2017
Typhoon Lan brought huge amount of rainfall in Japan,having left 8 people dead with more than 200 injured(tentative statistics as of 26 Oct.)➢ 12 TCs approached(normal: 11.4 TCs / year)➢ 7 TCs affected(1703, 1705, 1709, 1710, 1715, 1718, 1721)

Lan(1721)➢ 4 TCs made landfall(1703, 1705, 1718, 1721)

Asia-Pacific Severe Weather Center

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RSMC TOKYO TYPHOON CENTER

Tropical Cyclone Information Chain
Meteorological
Satellites
Weather Radars

Upper-air Observation

Statistics
AnalysisWind Profilers
Radiosondes

Surface Observation“AMeDAS”
Observation ofCentral Governmental
and Local Authorities

Numerical
Modelsobservation

Disasterprevention• Normal value• Extreme values• Short-range forecasts• Precipitation analysis

Socioeconomicactivities• Numerical prediction

ForecastWarning

Transportation

Real-time Monitoring Data
etc.

RSMC Tokyo - Tokyo Typhoon Center

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
Observation data

Numerical Prediction

Forecast

NWP products

assimilation

Super Computer(9th-generation since 1959)
JMA’s NWP models

Global Scale Model(GSM)

Meso-Scale Model Local Forecast Model
(MSM)
(LFM)

8RSMC Tokyo – Typhoon Center

9ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee
14 Members: Cambodia, China, DPR Korea, Hong Kong(China), Japan, Lao PDR, Macao (China),
Malaysia, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Viet Nam, Singapore, U.S.A.

Typhoon Committee
Advisory WG

WG onMeteorology

WG onHydrology

TC Secretary
TC Secretariat

WG on DRR

Training andResearch CG

WGM projects initiated by RSMC Tokyo•••••

Enhanced use of ensemble forecast
Development of regional radar network
Storm surge watch scheme
Development of tropical cyclone forecasting competency
Enhancing utilization of Himawari 8/9 products (in plan)

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RSMC Tokyo Products via GTS
RSMC TC advisory for 3-day forecast(WTPQ20-25)

issued within 50 minutes after observation times at
00, 06, 12, 18 UTC

RSMC TC advisory for 5-day track
forecast (WTPQ50-55)

issued within 90 minutes after observation times at00, 06, 12, 18 UTC

SAREP (IUCC10) in BUFR Format

issued a half to 1 hour after observations
at 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18, 21 UTC

Guidance for Forecast (FXPQ20-25)

GSM predictions: issued 3.5 hours after initial
analyses at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC (up to 84 hoursahead )GEPS ensemble mean track predictions: issued 4.2hours after initial analyses at 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC (upto 132 hours ahead )Tropical Cyclone Advisory for SIGMET(FKPQ30-35)

issued 6 hourly for aviation via the AFTN

Tropical Cyclone Best Track (AXPQ20)

issued one and a half month after a TC dissipated

Prognostic Reasoning(WTPQ30-35)

issued at 00 and 06 UTC following the TC advisory
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RSMC TC Advisory
3-day track and intensity forecast

5-day track forecast Determined by operational forecasters with reference to global NWP models, environmentalfields (Sea Surface Temperature, low/mid- level humidity, interaction with land etc),knowledges and experiences.Asia-Pacific Severe Weather Center

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RSMC TC Advisory
3-day track & intensity forecast
72 hours ahead

70% probability
circle48 hours ahead

Storm warningarea

24 hours ahead

Over 50ktwind area

5-day track forecast
96 hours ahead
72 hours ahead

120 hours ahead
48 hours ahead
24 hours ahead

Over 30kt-windareaissued every 6 hours
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TC Analysis (00, 03, 06, 09, 12, 15, 18, 21 UTC)
 Determine TC position every 3 hours and intensity every 6 hours using satellite
observations,andsurface

observationsif any (e.g., Himawari-8, satellite

microwave and radar).
Microwave TC Intensity Estimation

Dvorak (semi-objective, CLOUD)

Radar

86 GHzAWSSWASCAT14

RSMC Tokyo Products via Internet for TC members
 available for registered TC Members.
 TC related products supporting user’s operational TC Service are provided.

https://tynwp-web.kishou.go.jp/

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Tropical Cyclone Advisory for SIGMET in graphical format
 RSMC Tokyo, as ICAO TCAC, has provided TC advisories (TCAs) for aviation users
in graphical format according to MODEL TCG in ICAO Annex 3 since August 2015.

 Cloud grid information is used for the analysis of CB areas.

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/fcd/tca/data/index.html

satellite imagery (IR)cloud grid information
16(Amount of Convection Cloud)Accuracy of Typhoon Track Forecast

5d

3d
4d
2d

1d

Although the precision of typhoon course forecast is yearly fluctuation due to thecharacteristics of the typhoon of that year,
Steadily improving by improving forecasting technology such as improvement ofnumerical forecast model.

Asia-Pacific Severe Weather Center

IMPACT-BASED FORECAST AND EARLYWARNING

Warnings / Advisories LineupEmergency
Warnings (6)Storm
Heavy rain
Storm surge

Snow-storm
Heavy snow
High waves

Warnings (7)Storm
Heavy rain
Storm surge

Snow-storm
Heavy snow
High waves

Advisories (16)Heavy rain
Heavy snow
Dry air
Frost
Storm surge

Gale
Dense fog
Avalanche
FloodHigh waves

FloodGale and snow
Thunderstorm
Ice (snow) accretion
Low temperature
Snow-melting

Japan Meteorological Agency

Warning zone is divided
into municipalities

Issued by Local
Met. Offices
19Disasters in Japan since 2011
Flood Disaster by Lionrock (T1610)

20 Aug. 2014
217.5 mm/3hr in Hiroshima City
74 People Killed

30 Aug. 2016
231 mm/24hr in Kuji City, Iwate
22 People Killed, 5 People Missing

Number of occurrences / 1,000 stations

Landslide Disaster in Hiroshima in 2014

Annual Number of Rainfall larger than 80mm/1hr

16 Oct. 2013122.5mm/1hr, 824.0mm/24hr in Izu-Oshima
35 People Killed, 4 People Missing

Landslide Disaster by Wipha (T1326)

Year
11 Mar. 2011
Main tremor magnitude 9.0, recorded tsunami height: 9.3 m in Souma
19,575/2,577 dead and missing

Great
East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in 2011
Japan MeteorologicalAgency20Risks of Rainfall-induced Hazards
Rainfall increase the risks of three disasters

Rain accumulates on surface
ground/lowland→ Inundation potential increases
Rain gathers in river and flow
down
→ Flood potential increases
Rain accumulates in the soil
→ Landslide potential increases

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Real-time Risk Map
NEW!

NEW!

Landslide (2015-)

Inundation (2017-)

Flood (2017-)

Resolution

5 km

1 km

1 km

Update Interval/Lead-time

10 min / 2hours

10 min / 1hour

10 min / 3hours

Risk Map

Related Disaster• Supplement information to shows levelsof risk on Map with an of five risk levels
ranking from of white to purple

Utilization of Real-time Risk Map

Heavy rain
Advisory
InformIncrease ofRisk

Heavy rain
WarningDRR
stakeholders

Checkthe risk area
in detail

RISK

Real-time Risk Map

Warning Message

Landslide Disaster
Alert Informationetc.

Residents
Understandthe detail ofdisaster risks• prompt evacuation orders by Mayors• rapid evacuation of residents
Japan Meteorological Agency

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Enhancement of top-level communication
Top-level communications

Advice in disaster situation【Construction of face-to-face relationshipwith municipalities】
Regular visits, communications on SNSs,
joint training/drill activities【Weather commentary from DirectorGeneral of Meteorological Office 】
Sharing the risk of approachingdisaster, issuing instructions forprompt evacuation orders by Mayorsand rapid evacuation of residents.

Meeting with Mayor of Ikutsu

Mayor of North Akita onFacebook

Meeting with Governor of Akita
Prefecture

Japan Meteorological Agency

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RELATED ACTIVITIESHimawari-8 Utilization Support
 Himawari-8 began operation on 7 July
2015 replacing MTSAT-2.
 Himawari-9 was also launched andstarted backup operation for Himawari-8 at
00 UTC on 10 March 2017.
 Significant improvements of observation
Number of bands: 5  16
Interval: 30/60 min.  10 min.
Resolution: 1 km (VIS), 4 km (IR)
 0.5 km (VIS), 2 km (IR) JMA established three services for data distribution/dissemination.
HimawariCast: Primary data sets via a communication satellite
HimawariCloud: All imagery via an Internet cloud
WIS server: Limited data sets via WIS server
 JMA has conducted experts dispatch missions to 23 countries inwestern North Pacific to enhance their weather monitoring andforecasting capacity using Himawari-8 imagery.

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RSMC Tokyo Forecaster Training Attachment• The RSMC Tokyo Forecaster Training Attachment first came in 2007.
• The training focused on improvement of skills on tropical cyclone analysis/forecasts throughpractical training using Satellite Analysis and Viewer Program (SATAID), and covered a rangeof lectures such as storm surge forecasts.
This training provides opportunities for forecasters of TC (and PTC) members to improve theirabilities, exchange various experiences and understand RSMC’s activities.

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Publications
Annual Report PDF version available on website
 DVD version contains:

MTSAT and Himawari-8 imagery of all TCs with aviewer program

Available at http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/annualreport.html

Technical Review
Technical Review No. 19 (published in March 2017)
 Comparative Study of Dvorak Analysis in the western North Pacific Upgrade of JMA’s Storm Surge Prediction for the WMO Storm Surge Watch Scheme(SSWS)
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/techrev.htm

Asia-Pacific Severe Weather Center28

Collaborations among operation and research• Nagoya University team to use aircraft to gauge potency of super typhoons– T-PARCII (Tropical cyclones-Pacific Asian Research Campaign for Improvement ofIntensity estimations/forecasts)

International Collaboration
Development of regional radar network• Approved at RA II-16 (Abu Dhabi, UAE, Feb. 2017)• It aims to enhance radar QC capacity in ASEAN region and to promote
regional radar data exchange through experiments.
• Coordination Group was established.
• WIGOS/ASEAN Radar workshop (Bangkok, Thailand) is to be held in Feb.
2018.

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FUTURE PLAN

Future plan of JMA NWP and TC information
13km L128
GSM

NW
PGEPS
MSM20km L100

132hr forecast
27km L128 M51

40km L100 M27

5km L96

5km L76

5km L96 M21

MEPS
LFM

2km L76

2km L58

Replacement of Super Computer System (Jun 2018)2018
5d track forecast
TCinformation

3d intensity

5d intensity forecast
Genesis information

Future Direction• Much efforts for high accuracy of track andintensity forecast will be required.
• Development of EWS toward risk-based warnings
are also required.
– Collaboration with national and local disastermanagement authorities in developing and operating
EWS

Asia-Pacific Severe Weather Center33

SUMMARYSummary• The Japan Meteorological Agency provides weather
and typhoon information both domestically andabroad as RSMC on tropical cyclones.
• Typhoon analysis and forecasting techniques is afundamental technology, focusing on more accurate
estimation of center position / intensity,
development of numerical prediction model.
Accuracy has been steadily improved.
• We will continue leading various activities incooperation with domestic and foreign regions toreduce typhoon disasters.

Thank you