March 10-12, 2005 ,NIES, Tsukuba,Japan

Activities in the Fiscal Year 2005 inKorea

The 10th AIM International Workshop
Tae Yong Jung
IGES, Japan
Dong Kun Lee
Seoul National University, Korea
So Won Yoon
Seoul National University, Korea
Ｅｕｎ Ｙｏｕｎｇ Ｋｉｍ
Seoul National University, Korea

Table of Contents
I. AIM/Korea local Model: Transport
Sector in Seoul- Introduction- Input data projection- Scenario (setting/Results)- Policy Implication
II. AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Introduction- Analysis Results- Policy Implication<2>

AIM/Korea local Model
1. Introduction
2. Input data projection
3. Scenario (setting/Results)
4. Policy Implication

1. Introduction

I . AIM/Korea local ModelzThe Ministry of Environment (MoE) of Republic of Korea(ROK) enacted the Special Act on Metropolitan Air Quality
Improvement in December 2003

zThe new legislation of the Special Act on Metropolitan Air
Quality Improvement is expected to affect the whole emission
profiles of air pollutants in this area with the introduction ofdiesel passenger cars.
zTo discuss the possible impact of this Special Act onemissions of sulfur-dioxide (SO2), nitrogen-oxide (NOx),carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM), and carbon
dioxide (CO2) from the transport sector in Seoul.
zTo analyzes the various policy scenarios along withprojections of key determinants in the transport sector in thisarea.

<4>manw oman

30

27

24

21

15
18

1209

06

03

00

94
97

91

88

85

82

79

73
76

70
0

0-

12000000

10000000

4000000

2000000

4a
5 - ge910 ag-1 e
15 4ag-1 e
20 9ag-2 e
25 4ag-2 e
30 9ag-3 e
35 4ag-3 e
40 9ag-4 e
45 4ag-4 e
50 9ag-5 e
55 4ag-5 e
60 9ag-6 e
65 4ag-6 e70 9ag-7 e
75 4agab -79 e
ov a ge
80 eage

2020202020202020

202020191919191919191919

19

2. Input Data Projection
I . AIM/Korea local Model

Population
Population

600 (thousand pop.)

500

8000000

400

6000000

300

200

1000

1980 man1980 woman
2030 man
2030 woman<5>

2. Input Data Projection

GRDP
GRDP

I . AIM/Korea local Model

VehicleVehicle<6>I . AIM/Korea local Model

2. Input Data Comparison

Tokyo/Seoul/Beijing
Tokyo/Seoul/Beijing

Vehicle(Seoul)
Vehicle(Seoul)

600
557

500

Japan
500

423.5TokyoVehicles per 1000 people

Tokyo Ward area

400

Korea
400

Seoul

356

China

359.5

300

317

300

Beijing

200
226
216

200

100

100
720
2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

90
1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

<7>

3. Scenario (Setting/Results)

Scenario

I . AIM/Korea local Model

Description

BAU

Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario

BAU_IMPScenario that the new emission standard is applied

D10Scenario that diesel passenger cars will take 10 %shares in 2030

H30

Scenario that new advanced technology vehicles willtake 30% shares in 2030

D10H30(D10 + H30) Combined Scenario<8>I . AIM/Korea local Model

3. Scenario (Setting/Results)

EnergyEnergy useuse
10^3T O E

Energy use

4,700
4,600
4,500
4,400
4,300
4,200
4,100
4,000
2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029

BAU

BAU_IMPD10H30

D10H30<9>

I . AIM/Korea local Model

3. Scenario (Setting/Results)

NOx
NOx
TO N

NO x

28,00026,00024,00022,00020,00018,00016,00014,00012,00010,000200120052009

BAU

BAU_IMP2013
D102017
H30202120252029

D10H30<10>

I . AIM/Korea local Model

3. Scenario (Setting/Results)

SO
SO222,450.0

TO N

SO22,400.0
2,350.0
2,300.0
2,250.0
2,200.0

BAU

BAU_IMPD10H30202927202520232021201920172015201320

112009
2007
2005
2003
20

2001

2,150.0

D10H30<11>

I . AIM/Korea local Model

3. Scenario (Setting/Results)

CO
CO22TONCO 2

3,700,000

3,600,000

3,500,000

3,400,000

3,300,000

3,200,000

3,100,000
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028

BAU

BAU_IMPD10H30

D10H30<12>

4. Policy Implication

I . AIM/Korea local ModelzThe new legislation of the Special Act on Metropolitan Air Quality
Improvement will affect the emission profiles of air pollutants in this area
especially with the introduction of diesel passenger cars.
zThe environmental policies and measures would shift to more marketoriented approaches rather than the conventional ‘command-and-control’type.
zThe relative energy prices between gasoline and diesel should be reexamined (energy tax issues).
zPolicy balance among sectors and policy integration is considered in more
systematic way to achieve multi-targets and goals.
zTo boost the R&D of advanced technologies in the transport sector withfinancial and tax incentives will contribute to the formulation of overall
framework for environmentally sustainable society .
<13>AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model
1. Introduction
2. Analysis Results
3. Policy Implication

1. Introduction

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Modelz Modeling the cost of abating greenhouse gases (GHGs) is crucial
to demonstrate an economy’s ability to reduce GHG emissions
cost-effectively with specific options.
z The results of the analysis are presented as marginal abatement
cost curves for 2030 in transport and residential sector.

z Starting year : 2001
z Ending year : 2030
z Sector: transport sector, residential sectorz Area: Korea<15>

2. Analysis Results

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Transport sector
Marginal
Marginal Abatement
Abatement Cost
Cost Curve
Curve
15

10Marginal Cost

Won/kg-CO25

00.0E+00

1.0E+122.0E+123.0E+124.0E+125.0E+126.0E+12-5-10-15
Reduction Potential kg-CO2<16>

2. Analysis Results

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Transport sector
Technology_nameMarginal
Marginal Cost
Cost
Won/kg-CO212.0000
Won/kg-CO2Marginal_Cost

CPP(New)

compact private passenger Cars(New)SPP(CNG)

small private passenger Cars(CNG)

JEEP(LPG_New)

Jeeps(LPG_New)

BL15P(LPG_New)

Buses less than 15 persons(LPG_New)

CPP(electricity)

compact private passenger Cars(electricity)
compact private passenger Cars(fuel cellmeth)
Large private passenger Cars(gasolinehybird)
Large private passenger Cars(full cellmeth)
Trucks less than 1.0 tons(LPG_New)

10.0000

CPP(fuel cell-meth)

8.0000

LPP(gasoline hybird)
LPP(full cell-meth)

6.0000TL1(LPG_New)
4.0000MPP(CNG)

BL15P(CNG)

Buses less than 15 persons(CNG)

SPP(electricity)

small private passenger Cars(electricity)

BM25P(CNG)

Buses more than 25 persons(CNG)

Jeep(gasoline_New)

Jeeps(gasoline_New)

MPP(gasoline hybrid)

2.0000PP(New)
SPP(JECN
EP
G(L)
PG
BL
15_N
P(ewLP)
GC_NPPew
C(ePPle)(fuctri celLPityceP()
gallsometlinLPheP(hy )fullc e b ird)llTLm1(etLPh)
G_NMewPPM)(gPP
as(ColNGin)eMhyPP(e b ri dlect )BL ri c ity15)
P(SPC
P(NGel)ecBM tricJeity25ep)
P((gCasNGoBMlin)
e_15BMNe
P(15Ele c w)
P(gatriciSP so ltyin)
P(e_fuNellcew)
llmeth)0.0000C

MPP(electricity)

Medium private passenger Cars(CNG)
Medium private passenger Cars(gasolinehybrid)
Medium private passenger Cars(electricity)

BM15P(Electricity)

Buses more than 15 persons(Electricity)
Buses more than 15BM15P(gasoline_New)
persons(gasoline_New)
SPP(full cell-meth)small private passenger Cars(full cell-meth)<17>

2. Analysis Results

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Transport sector
Marginal
Marginal Cost
Cost
Technology nameMarginal_Cost

Won/kg-CO2
Won/kg-CO2
0.0000

CPP(LPG_New)

compact private passenger Cars(LPG_New)

SPP(LPG_New)

small private passenger Cars(LPG_New)

LPP(LPG_New)

Large private passenger Cars(LPG_New)

MPP(LPG_New)

Medium private passenger Cars(LPG_New)

TL5(New)

Trucks less than 5.0 tons(New)

TM5(New)

Trucks more than 5.0 tons(New)-12.0000

MPT(New)

Medium private Taxi(New)-14.0000

MPT(New)

Medium company Taxi(New)BM25(New)

Buses more than 25persons(New)SPP(New)

small private passenger Cars(New)

BM16P(New)Buses more than 16persons(New)MPP(New)

Medium private passenger Cars(New)-10.0000-16.0000

Ne
P(w)
Ne

MPP(w)
BM

16NeewP(SP(N25BM

MP

T(New)w)

NeT(MP

5(Ne

NeTMw)

5(Ne

MP

P(LP

G_G_LP
P(LPTL

NeNew)w)
Ne

G_LP
P(P(LP

G_esDiMP

P(P(CPSPel))-8.0000

esew-6.0000

DiSP

sel _Nd ieP(LP-4.0000w)

Medium private passenger Cars(Diesel))

MPP(Diesel)w)

small private passenger Cars(Diesel)w)

SPP(Diesel)-2.0000w)

Large private passenger Cars(diesel_New)e l)

LPP(diesel_New)<18>

2. Analysis Results

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Transport sector
Reduction
Reduction Potential
Potential

Technology_name
TM5(New)

Trucks more than 5.0 tons(New)MPTaxi(New)Medium private Taxi(New)1,800,000

TL5(New)

Trucks less than 5.0 tons(New)1,600,000

SPP(New)

small private passenger Cars(New)

1,400,000

MCT(New)

Medium company Taxi(New)MPP(New)

Medium private passenger Cars(New)MPP(LPG_New)

Medium private passenger Cars(LPG_New)

600,000

MPP(Diesel)

Medium private passenger Cars(Diesel)

400,000

BM25P(New)Buses more than 25persons(New)

200,000

SPP(Diesel)small private passenger Cars(Diesel)

SPP(LPG_New)

small private passenger Cars(LPG_New)

BM16P(New)Buses more than 16persons(New)CPP(LPG_New)

compact private passenger Cars(LPG_New)

LPP(LPG_New)

Large private passenger Cars(LPG_New)

LPP(diesel_New)

Large private passenger Cars(diesel_New)10^6kg-CO2

2,000,000

1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000

L P P (d i e s e l _ N e w )L P P (L P G _ N e w )C P P (L P G _ N e w )B M 1 6 P (N e w )S P P (L P G _ N e w )S P P (D i e s e l )B M 2 5 P (N e w )M P P (D i e s e l )M P P (L P G _ N e w )M P P (N e w )M C T (N e w )S P P (N e w )T L 5 (N e w )M P T a x i (N e w )T M 5 (N e w )0<19>

2. Analysis Results

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Transport sector
BL15P(CNG)
MPP(gasolinehybrid)
TL1(LPG_New)

Technology_name
Buses less than 15 persons(CNG)
Medium private passenger Cars(gasolinehybrid)
Trucks less than 1.0 tons(LPG_New)

140,000

Jeep(LPG_New)
SPP(electricity)

Jeeps(LPG_New)
small private passenger Cars(electricity)

120,000

SPP(CNG)

100,000

SPP(full cell-meth)small private passenger Cars(CNG)
small private passenger Cars(full cellmeth)

80,000Jeep(gasoline_New) Jeeps(gasoline_New)

60,000MPP(CNG)
BM25P(CNG)

Reduction
Reduction Potential
Potential
10^6kg-CO2

160,000

40,000

BL15P(LPG_New)
CPP(New)

20,000B M 15P(E lectricity)

M PP(electricity)

LPP(g as o line hyb ird )LPP(full cell- m eth)

C PP(electricity)

B M 15P(g as o line_ N ew )C PP(fuel cell- m eth)

C PP(N ew )B L15P(LPG_ N ew )B M 25P(C N G)

M PP(C N G)

Jeep (g as o line_ N ew )SPP(full cell- m eth)

SPP(C N G)

SPP(electricity)

Jeep (LPG_ N ew )TL1(LPG_ N ew )M PP(g as o line hyb rid )B L15P(C N G)

0

Medium private passenger Cars(CNG)
Buses more than 25 persons(CNG)

Buses less than 15 persons(LPG_New)
compact private passenger Cars(New)compact private passenger Cars(fuel cellCPP(fuel cell-meth) meth)
BM15P(gasoline_Ne Buses more than 15w)
persons(gasoline_New)
compact private passenger
CPP(electricity)
Cars(electricity)
Large private passenger Cars(full cellLPP(full cell-meth) meth)
Large private passenger Cars(gasolineLPP(gasoline hybird) hybird)MPP(electricity)
Medium private passenger Cars(electricity)
BM15P(Electricity)

Buses more than 15 persons(Electricity)<20>2. Analysis Results

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Transport sector
Reduction
Reduction Potential
Potential▶ GHG Emission- 2001 : 29.998.45010^6- 2030 : 45,884,380 10^610^6Kg-CO2

60,000,000

50,000,000▶ Reduction
5,276,466 10^6kg-CO2

GHG Emission

40,000,000

30,000,000

20,000,000

10,000,000

02001

2030
Emission

Reduction<21>

2. Analysis Results

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Residential sector
Marginal
Marginal Abatement
Abatement CostCost Curve
Curve
2015Marginal Cost

Won/kg-CO2
Won/kg-CO21050
0.0E+00

1.0E+122.0E+123.0E+124.0E+125.0E+12-5-10kg-CO2kg-CO2Reduction Potential<22>2. Analysis Results

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Residential sector
Technology_nameMarginal
Marginal Cost
Cost
Marginal_Cost
W on/Kg-CO2

Won/kg-CO2
20
Won/kg-CO215105

D C OOL2

REF RI2

D Z ISN 2

D SORARD H EAT3TELEV 2

W ASH I2

D LIGI4

D B OIL6

D LIGI5

D C OM 2

D LIGI2

D H EAT1TELEV 1D B OIL4

D H EAT2-10

D H ETW 1-5

W ASH IN

0WASHIN

Regular washing mashine

DHETW1

LPG oven range(LPG)

DHEAT2

LNG heater(LNG)

DBOIL4Boiler(LNG)

TELEV1

Regular Television

DHEAT1

Kerosene pan heater

DLIGI2

Fluorescent lamp(luminous)

DCOM2

Efficient computer

DLIGI5Compact Fluoresen lamp(saving 2)

DBOIL6

Condensing Boiler

DLIGI4

Efficient fluorescent lamp(saving)

WASHI2

Efficient washing mashine

TELEV2

Efficient Television

DHEAT3

LPG heater(LPG)

DSORAR

Solar energy

DZISN2Insulation

REFRI2

Efficient Refrigeration

DCOOL2High efficient air conditioner<23>

2. Analysis Results

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Residential sector
Technology_name

Reduction
Reduction Potential
Potential

DSORAR

Solar energy

DZISN2Insulation

DBOIL6

Condensing Boiler

REFRI2

Efficient Refrigeration

1,400,000

DLIGI2

Fluorescent lamp(luminous)

1,200,000

DCOM2

Efficient computer

DLIGI4

Efficient fluorescent lamp(saving)

DLIGI5Compact Fluoresen lamp(saving 2)

TELEV2

Efficient Television

600,000

DHEAT3

LPG heater(LPG)

400,000

DHEAT2

LNG heater(LNG)

DBOIL4

Boiler(LNG)

DHETW1LPG oven range(LPG)

WASHI2

Efficient washing mashine

DCOOL2High effiecient air conditionaer

DHEAT1

Kerosene pan heater

TELEV1

Regular Television

WASHIN

Regular washing mashine

Reduction_Potential
10^6kg-CO2

1,000,000
800,000

200,000
0
WASHINTELEV1

DHEAT1DCOOL2WASHI2DHETW1DB OIL4

DHEAT2

DHEAT3TELEV2DLIGI5DLIGI4DCOM2DLIGI2REFRI2

DB OIL6DZISN2DSORAR<24>

2. Analysis Results

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model- Residential sector
Reduction
Reduction Potential
Potential▶ GHG Emission- 2001 : 14,396,73010^6- 2030 : 16,109,950 10^610^6Kg-CO2

25,000,000▶ Reduction
3,933,938 10^6kg-CO2

GHG Emission

20,000,000

15,000,000

10,000,000

5,000,000

02001

2030
Emission

Reduction<25>

3. Policy Implication

II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Modelz Negative cost of reduction options implies that such options arefeasible without extra cost of implementation, The list of such
options will be a good information for policy makers to launch
specific action programs to mitigate GHG emissions in a specificsector.
z In transport sector, most of options are to improve the energy
efficiency in various vehicles. If high advanced technologies in thissector is considered, the potential of GHG reduction will be muchbigger with much higher MAC.
z Even if the potential of GHG reduction in transport sector is bigger,
relatively, it is easier to do it in residential sector. This finding
implies that some policies will be implemented in residential sector.

<26>