Provisional Translation

Economic and Fiscal Projectionsfor Medium to Long Term Analysis

July 21, 2021
Cabinet Office, Government of Japan

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Projections are conducted using the Cabinet Office’s "Economic and Fiscal Model,"incorporating macroeconomy, public finance and social security synthetically.
Therefore, the main economic variables such as growth rates, inflation rates and interest
rates are not exogenously assumed, but are endogenously obtained within the model.
Considerable leeway should be given when interpreting the projections shown here due
to various uncertainties. 㻌㻌㻌1. Introduction
Under the concept of “the economy is the foundation of public finance,” the government decided in the“Basic Policy 20211” to work to overcome deflation and revitalize the economy, while continuing to
make efforts for expenditure reform and promote revenue reform toward fiscal consolidation. As for the
fiscal consolidation targets, the government decided to maintain its aim for a primary surplus of thecentral and local governments by FY2025, and at the same time to steadily reduce the public debt to
GDP ratio2.
This projection is intended to contribute to the discussion of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policyby checking the progress of the economic revitalization and fiscal consolidation and providing the basic
data necessary to consider further efforts, and conducting medium- to long-term analysis, based on the
scenarios of economic situations and fiscal assumptions as follows.

2. Scenarios and Assumptions in Macroeconomy3
The projection on macroeconomy until FY2022 is based on the Cabinet Office’s “Mid-Year Economic
Projection4.” From FY2023, based on the past performance and current trend of the Japanese economy,
the projection shows medium- to long-term macroeconomic prospects such as GDP and inflation for
two different cases.
(1) Economic Growth Achieved Case
The Economic Growth Achieved Case offers a projection in which the government’s policy goalsof overcoming deflation and economic revitalization show solid results at a feasible pace reflecting
the past performance.
Specifically, the Economic Growth Achieved Case includes the following assumptions:
䞉The total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate rises from the current level (around 0.4%) toaround 1.3%, based on the extent and pace5 that the Japanese economy actually experienced
before it entered deflation.
䞉The labor force participation rate shifts based on the estimates of labor supply and demand forthe “case in which economic growth and labor participation are achieved” shown by the “Labor
Policy Study Group” (2019).
䞉The number of foreign workers shifts based on the non-Japanese population reported in the“Population Projection for Japan” by the National Institute of Population and Social Security
Research and the “Expected Number of Acceptance” of foreign workers related to the status of1“Basic Policy on Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform 2021” (Cabinet Decision, June 18, 2021).
In light of the current economic and fiscal situation, which remains unstable due to the infectious disease, the impact of the Infectious
Disease on economic and fiscal conditions will be verified within FY2021, and based on the results of the verification, the target fiscal
year will be reconfirmed.
3
For further details, see the Appendix.
4
The Cabinet Office’s “Mid-Year Economic Projection for FY2021” (July 6, 2021, Submitted to the Council on Economic and Fiscal
Policy)5Specifically, the total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate rose around 0.9% in 5 years from FY1982 to FY1987.
2

1

residence of specified skilled workers.6(2) Baseline Case
The Baseline Case offers a projection in which the economy will shift approximately at the rate ofcurrent potential growth.
Specifically, the main differences from the assumptions of the Economic Growth Achieved Case
are as follows:
䞉The total factor productivity (TFP) growth rate moves around 0.7%.7
䞉The labor force participation rate shifts based on the estimates of labor supply and demand forthe “case in which economic growth and labor participation are partly achieved” shown by the“Labor Policy Study Group” (2019).

3. Main Assumptions in Public Finances8
For Public Finances, based on the following assumptions, the projection shows fiscal prospects which
are consistent with the two economic scenarios mentioned in “2.”
䞉Revenues and expenditures in FY2021 reflect the FY2021 Budget and other factors9.
䞉Expenditures in FY2022 are calculated by taking into account changes in prices and wages,
expenditure reforms carried out thus far, and other factors. It is assumed that the expenditure growth
excluding the increase due to aging population and other factors will consequently be curbed byabout half of what it would be if the expenditure reform carried out thus far is continued10. In
addition, based on the Cabinet Office’s “Mid-Year Economic Projection, public fixed capitalformation in FY2022 is assumed to be the average amount in the most recent five years at thenominal level.”䞉From FY2023, social security expenditures will increase reflecting the aging of population and priceand wage developments, and other expenditures will increase along with the inflation rates.
䞉Revenues from FY2022 will increase based on the assumptions of macroeconomy.

4. Progress and Future Prospects of Economic Revitalization and
Fiscal Consolidation<Progress>
In FY2020, the Japanese economy was in a severe condition due to the impact of the Novel
Coronavirus Infectious Disease (hereinafter referred to as the “Infectious Disease”) and the GDP
growth rate is around -4.6% in real terms and around -3.9% in nominal terms. In the first half of the
FY2021, the economy is expected to recover at a moderate pace partly because economic activities
6“The Basic Policy on Operation of the System Related to Status of Residence of the Specified Skilled Worker” (Cabinet Decision,
December 25, 2018)7
Average from January 2002. (From the 14th business cycle.)8For further details, see the Appendix. 
9As for the revenues of the central and local governments, the underlying trend in the settlements for FY2020 based on the economic
fundamentals is taken into consideration.
10
Based on materials submitted to the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy by council members from the private sector (May 28,2018) and those by the Cabinet Office (April 26, 2021), the effect on improvement in the primary balance by efforts for increasing
spending efficiency is assumed to be about 1.3 trillion yen per year when its impact on the economy is taken into consideration.

2

have been restricted to prevent the spread of the Infectious Disease. In the latter half of FY2021,
the economy will accelerate as service consumption will start to recover along with the promotionof vaccinations and exports and private investment will steadily increase with the support ofgovernment expenditure. As a result, GDP for FY 2021 is projected to grow approximately by 3.7%
in real terms and 3.1% in nominal terms.
On the fiscal conditions, the primary deficit11 in FY2020 is projected to be around 10.5% due tothe increase in expenditures for the supplementary budgets for dealing with the Infectious Disease.
The primary deficit in FY2021 is projected to be around 6.8% including the impact of the carryoverof the supplementary budgets for FY2020. As a result, the ratio of outstanding debt to GDP is
projected to be around 209.2% in FY2020 and around 211.0% in FY2021.
<Future Prospects>
In the Economic Growth Achieved Case, the GDP growth rate is projected to achieve around 2%
in real terms and over around 3% in nominal terms as the potential growth rate steadily increases
through promoting investment and building a foundation for realizing new driving forces ofgrowth: green society, digitalization, regional revitalization and children / childcare. As a result,although the impact of the Infectious Disease on the economy needs to be carefully examined,
nominal GDP is projected to achieve 600 trillion yen around FY2024. The rate of change in
consumer prices is projected to be around 2% from FY2025.
On the fiscal conditions, without the expenditure reforms, the primary deficit is projected to bearound 0.5% of GDP in FY2025, and turn to surplus in FY202712. It is important to continue
improvement both from the expenditure and revenue sides while ensuring overcoming deflationand economic revitalization and realizing higher, private demand-led economic growth in terms ofboth quality and quantity. The ratio of outstanding debt to GDP is projected to steadily decline in
the periods of the projection. It should be noted, however, that the existing bonds issued at lower
interest rates will be refinanced at higher interest rates sequentially with the long-term nominalinterest rate rising.
In the Baseline Case, on the other hand, the GDP growth rate is projected to be around 1% in realterms and in the lower 1% range in nominal terms in the medium to long term. The rate of change
in consumer prices is projected to be around 0.7%.
On the fiscal conditions, the primary deficit is projected to be 1.3% of GDP in FY2025, and theprimary deficit within the projection period will improve at a modest pace. The ratio of outstanding
debt to GDP is projected to be almost flat in the periods of projection.

11

Excluding the expenditures and the fiscal resources for the recovery and reconstruction measures.
Based on the materials submitted to the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy by council members from the private sector (May 28,2018) and those by the Cabinet Office (April 26, 2021), the effect on improvement in the primary balance by efforts for increasing
spending efficiency is assumed to be about 1.3 trillion yen per year when its impact on the economy is taken into consideration.
Calculating mechanically based on this assumption, if the government continues the expenditure reforms carried out thus far, the primary
surplus will be achieved in FY2025, around two years earlier.
123Results of Projection○GDP Growth Rate
(%)

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
(%)

5.0

〔Real GDP Growth Rate〕
3.7
2.2

1.8

2.2

1.5

0.8

Economic Growth Achieved Case
Baseline Case

●
●

21

30 (FY)-4.6
2006 07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

〔Nominal GDP Growth Rate〕

5.0

4.0

4.0

3.1

3.0

3.7

3.0
3.2

2.0

2.5

1.0

1.6

1.1

0.0

2.0
1.0

0.0

-1.0

-1.0

-2.0

-2.0

Economic Growth Achieved Case ●Baseline Case
●

-3.0
-3.9

-4.0

-5.0

2006 07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

-3.0
-4.0

-5.0
(FY)

‧ In the Economic Growth Achieved Case, the GDP growth rate is projected to achieve around
2% in real terms and over around 3% in nominal terms as the potential growth rate steadily
increases through promoting investment and building a foundation for realizing new driving
forces of growth: green society, digitalization, regional revitalization and children / childcare.
As a result, although the impact of the Infectious Disease on the economy needs to becarefully examined, nominal GDP is projected to achieve 600 trillion yen around FY2024.

○Consumer Price Index (Rate of Change)
(%)

4.0

4.0

3.0

3.0
2.0

2.0
2.0

2.0

1.0

1.0
0.1

0.0

0.7

0.7

-0.2

-1.0
-2.0

0.7

Economic Growth Achieved Case ●Baseline Case●
2006 07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

‧ The rate of change in consumer prices is projected to be around 2% from FY2025.

4

29

0.0

-1.0
-2.0

30 (FY)(%)

○Primary Balance of Central and Local Governments Combined *
(%)

2.0

1.0

Primary Surplus
0.3
Target

0.0

2.0
0.0

-0.5
-2.0
-3.1

-0.9 -2.0

-1.0

-1.3

-2.9

-4.0

-4.0

-6.2

-6.0

-6.0

-6.8

-8.0

-8.0

-10.0

-10.0
-10.5 Economic Growth Achieved Case

-12.0

-14.0

●
●
◆

Baseline Case
Primary Surplus Target
2006 07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

-12.0

-14.0
(FY)

‧ In the Economic Growth Achieved Case, without the expenditure reforms, the primary deficit
is projected to be around 0.5% of GDP in FY2025, and turn to surplus in FY2027.

○Outstanding Debt* (Ratio to Nominal GDP)
(%)

230.0

230.0

220.0
209.2

210.0

220.0

211.0 208.8

204.6

200.0

202.4

210.0
200.0

192.3

190.0

190.0

180.0

180.0

170.0

170.0

160.0

167.9 160.0

150.0

140.0
130.0

2006 07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

Economic Growth Achieved Case
Baseline Case

●
●

20

29

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

150.0

140.0
130.0

30 (FY)‧ In the Economic Growth Achieved Case, the ratio of outstanding debt to GDP is projected tosteadily decline in the periods of the projection. It should be noted, however, that the existing
bonds issued at lower interest rates will be refinanced at higher interest rates sequentially withthe long-term nominal interest rate rising.
‧ In the Baseline Case, the ratio is projected to be almost flat in the periods of projection.
* Excluding the expenditures and the fiscal resources for the recovery and reconstructions measures.

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FY2019FY2020

FY2021

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Nominal GNI Per Capita Growth
Nominal GNI Per Capita (䈜Ten thousand yen)
Potential GDP Growth
Change of Price
Consumer Prices
Corporate Goods Prices
GDP Deflator
Unemployment Rate
Long-term Interest Rate
Balance by Sector
General Government
PrivateOverseas䛆㻯㼑㼚㼠㼞㼍㼘㻌㼍㼚㼐㻌㻸㼛㼏㼍㼘㻌㻳㼛㼢㼑㼞㼚㼙㼑㼚㼠㼟㻓㻌㻼㼡㼎㼘㼕㼏㻌㻲㼕㼚㼍㼚㼏㼑㼟䛇㻔㻱㼤㼏㼘㼡㼐㼕㼚㼓㻌㼠㼔㼑㻌㼑㼤㼜㼑㼚㼐㼕㼠㼡㼞㼑㼟㻌㼍㼚㼐㻌㼠㼔㼑㻌㼒㼕㼟㼏㼍㼘㻌㼞㼑㼟㼛㼡㼞㼏㼑㼟㻌㼒㼛㼞㻌㼠㼔㼑㻌㼞㼑㼏㼛㼢㼑㼞㼥㻌㼍㼚㼐㻌㼞㼑㼏㼛㼚㼟㼠㼞㼡㼏㼠㼕㼛㼚㻌㼙㼑㼍㼟㼡㼞㼑㼟㻕㼇㼞㼍㼠㼕㼛㻌㼠㼛㻌㻳㻰㻼㻘㻌㻑㼉㻘㻌㼀㼞㼕㼘㼘㼕㼛㼚㼟㻌㼛㼒㻌㼅㼑㼚

FY2019FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024FY2025

FY2026FY2027

FY2028FY2029FY2030(ratio to nominal GDP)
Central Government(ratio to nominal GDP)䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻢
㼇䕦㻞㻚㻢㼉䕦 㻝㻢㻚㻝
㼇䕦㻞㻚㻥㼉䕦 㻡㻢㻚㻠
㼇䕦㻝㻜㻚㻡㼉䕦 㻡㻡㻚㻥
㼇䕦㻝㻜㻚㻠㼉䕦 㻟㻣㻚㻤
㼇䕦㻢㻚㻤㼉䕦 㻟㻣㻚㻜
㼇䕦㻢㻚㻣㼉䕦 㻝㻣㻚㻡
㼇䕦㻟㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻝㻤㻚㻝
㼇䕦㻟㻚㻞㼉䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻤
㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻝
㼇䕦㻞㻚㻞㼉䕦 㻢㻚㻤㼇䕦㻝㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻡
㼇䕦㻝㻚㻥㼉䕦 㻞㻚㻥㼇䕦㻜㻚㻡㼉䕦 㻥㻚㻤㼇䕦㻝㻚㻢㼉䕦 㻜㻚㻠㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻥㻚㻜㼇䕦㻝㻚㻠㼉

㻝㻚㻤
㼇㻜㻚㻟㼉
䕦 㻤㻚㻝
㼇䕦㻝㻚㻞㼉

㻟㻚㻢
㼇㻜㻚㻡㼉
䕦 㻣㻚㻝
㼇䕦㻝㻚㻜㼉

㻡㻚㻠
㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉
䕦 㻢㻚㻠
㼇䕦㻜㻚㻥㼉

㻣㻚㻝
㼇㻝㻚㻜㼉
䕦 㻡㻚㻤

Local Government(ratio to nominal GDP)

㻝㻚㻡
㼇㻜㻚㻟㼉

䕦 㻜㻚㻡
㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻜㻚㻤㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㻜㻚㻢
㼇㻜㻚㻝㼉

㻞㻚㻟
㼇㻜㻚㻠㼉

㻠㻚㻣
㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉

㻢㻚㻤
㼇㻝㻚㻝㼉

㻤㻚㻢
㼇㻝㻚㻟㼉

㻥㻚㻤
㼇㻝㻚㻡㼉

㻝㻜㻚㻣
㼇㻝㻚㻡㼉

㻝㻝㻚㻤
㼇㻝㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻤㼉
㻝㻞㻚㻥㼇㻝㻚㻣㼉

Fiscal Balance(ratio to nominal GDP)䕦 㻞㻜㻚㻢
㼇䕦㻟㻚㻣㼉䕦 㻞㻝㻚㻜䕦 㻢㻞㻚㻣
㼇䕦㻝㻝㻚㻣㼉䕦 㻢㻜㻚㻤䕦 㻠㻡㻚㻜
㼇䕦㻤㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻠㻞㻚㻥䕦 㻞㻞㻚㻣
㼇䕦㻠㻚㻜㼉䕦 㻞㻞㻚㻝䕦 㻝㻡㻚㻢
㼇䕦㻞㻚㻣㼉䕦 㻝㻢㻚㻤䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻝
㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻤䕦 㻢㻚㻤㼇䕦㻝㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻝㻞㻚㻣䕦 㻠㻚㻜㼇䕦㻜㻚㻢㼉䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻤䕦 㻞㻚㻝㼇䕦㻜㻚㻟㼉䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻞䕦 㻝㻚㻞㼇䕦㻜㻚㻞㼉䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻟䕦 㻜㻚㻣㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻝㻞㻚㻜

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻟

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻝㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻣㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻠㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉

㻜㻚㻠
㼇㻜㻚㻝㼉

䕦 㻝㻚㻥
㼇䕦㻜㻚㻠㼉䕦 㻞㻚㻝㼇䕦㻜㻚㻠㼉䕦 㻜㻚㻢㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㻝㻚㻞
㼇㻜㻚㻞㼉

㻟㻚㻣
㼇㻜㻚㻢㼉

㻡㻚㻥
㼇㻜㻚㻥㼉

㻣㻚㻤
㼇㻝㻚㻞㼉

㻥㻚㻝
㼇㻝㻚㻠㼉

㻝㻜㻚㻝
㼇㻝㻚㻠㼉

㻝㻝㻚㻟
㼇㻝㻚㻢㼉

㻝㻞㻚㻠
㼇㻝㻚㻣㼉

㻝㻜㻢㻠㻚㻢

㻝㻝㻞㻝㻚㻢

㻝㻝㻢㻢㻚㻣

㻝㻝㻤㻟㻚㻥

㻝㻝㻥㻣㻚㻡

㻝㻞㻜㻣㻚㻠

㻝㻞㻝㻠㻚㻢

㻝㻞㻞㻜㻚㻝

㻝㻞㻞㻡㻚㻤

㻝㻞㻟㻞㻚㻝

㻝㻞㻟㻥㻚㻣

㻝㻞㻡㻜㻚㻜

㼇㻝㻥㻜㻚㻣㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻥㻚㻞㼉

㼇㻞㻝㻝㻚㻜㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻤㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻟㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻝㻥㻤㻚㻞㼉

㼇㻝㻥㻞㻚㻟㼉

㼇㻝㻤㻢㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻝㻤㻝㻚㻠㼉

㼇㻝㻣㻢㻚㻠㼉

㼇㻝㻣㻝㻚㻥㼉

㼇㻝㻢㻣㻚㻥㼉

FY2019FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024FY2025

FY2026FY2027

FY2028FY2029FY2030

㻝㻜㻝㻚㻠
㻣㻥㻚㻠

㻝㻠㻣㻚㻢
㻝㻞㻡㻚㻣

㻝㻜㻢㻚㻢
㻤㻟㻚㻠

㻝㻜㻜㻚㻥
㻣㻤㻚㻡

㻝㻜㻟㻚㻜
㻤㻜㻚㻞

㻝㻜㻡㻚㻟
㻤㻞㻚㻡

㻝㻜㻣㻚㻡
㻤㻠㻚㻣

㻝㻜㻥㻚㻥
㻤㻢㻚㻤

㻝㻝㻞㻚㻤
㻤㻤㻚㻤

㻝㻝㻢㻚㻟
㻥㻜㻚㻣

㻝㻞㻜㻚㻡
㻥㻞㻚㻤

㻝㻞㻡㻚㻞
㻥㻡㻚㻜

Social Security-related Expenditures
Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc.

㻟㻟㻚㻡

㻠㻟㻚㻜

㻟㻡㻚㻤

㻟㻢㻚㻤

㻟㻣㻚㻡

㻟㻤㻚㻞

㻟㻥㻚㻜

㻟㻥㻚㻤

㻠㻜㻚㻣

㻠㻝㻚㻣

㻠㻞㻚㻢

㻠㻟㻚㻡

㻝㻢㻚㻜

㻝㻢㻚㻟

㻝㻡㻚㻥

㻝㻡㻚㻞

㻝㻡㻚㻥

㻝㻣㻚㻜

㻝㻤㻚㻜

㻝㻤㻚㻣

㻝㻥㻚㻟

㻝㻥㻚㻣

㻞㻜㻚㻟

㻞㻝㻚㻜

OthersDebt Repayment and Interest Payment

㻞㻥㻚㻡
㻞㻞㻚㻟

㻢㻢㻚㻜
㻞㻞㻚㻟

㻟㻝㻚㻝
㻞㻟㻚㻤

㻞㻢㻚㻝
㻞㻞㻚㻤

㻞㻢㻚㻠
㻞㻟㻚㻞

㻞㻢㻚㻤
㻞㻟㻚㻞

㻞㻣㻚㻟
㻞㻟㻚㻞

㻞㻣㻚㻥
㻞㻟㻚㻡

㻞㻤㻚㻠
㻞㻠㻚㻠

㻞㻤㻚㻥
㻞㻢㻚㻜

㻞㻥㻚㻡
㻞㻤㻚㻜

㻟㻜㻚㻝
㻟㻜㻚㻢

㻢㻡㻚㻡
㻡㻤㻚㻠

㻠㻡㻚㻞
㻢㻜㻚㻤

㻢㻟㻚㻜
㻡㻣㻚㻠

㻢㻣㻚㻝
㻢㻝㻚㻠

㻣㻜㻚㻡
㻢㻠㻚㻣

㻣㻠㻚㻟
㻢㻤㻚㻠

㻣㻣㻚㻤
㻣㻝㻚㻤

㻤㻜㻚㻣
㻣㻠㻚㻡

㻤㻟㻚㻢
㻣㻣㻚㻞

㻤㻢㻚㻠
㻣㻥㻚㻥

㻤㻥㻚㻞
㻤㻞㻚㻡

㻥㻞㻚㻜
㻤㻡㻚㻞

Other Revenues
Difference between Expenditures and Revenues

㻣㻚㻜
㻟㻢㻚㻢

䕦 㻝㻡㻚㻢
㻝㻜㻤㻚㻢

㻡㻚㻢
㻠㻟㻚㻢

㻡㻚㻣
㻟㻟㻚㻥

㻡㻚㻤
㻟㻞㻚㻡

㻡㻚㻥
㻟㻝㻚㻜

㻢㻚㻝
㻞㻥㻚㻣

㻢㻚㻞
㻞㻥㻚㻞

㻢㻚㻠
㻞㻥㻚㻞

㻢㻚㻡
㻞㻥㻚㻥

㻢㻚㻣
㻟㻝㻚㻟

㻢㻚㻤
㻟㻟㻚㻞

Primary Balance in General Account of Central Government䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻥䕦 㻤㻜㻚㻠䕦 㻞㻜㻚㻠䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻠

䕦 㻥㻚㻣

䕦 㻤㻚㻞

䕦 㻢㻚㻥

䕦 㻢㻚㻜

䕦 㻡㻚㻞

䕦 㻠㻚㻟

䕦 㻟㻚㻣

Primary BalanceCentral Government(ratio to nominal GDP)
Local Government(ratio to nominal GDP)
Outstanding Debt
(ratio to nominal GDP)䛆㻳㼑㼚㼑㼞㼍㼘㻌㻭㼏㼏㼛㼡㼚㼠㻌㼛㼒㻌㻯㼑㼚㼠㼞㼍㼘㻌㻳㼛㼢㼑㼞㼚㼙㼑㼚㼠䛇

Expenditures(Policy Expenditures)

Revenues
Tax Revenue㼀㼞㼕㼘㼘㼕㼛㼚㼟㻌㼛㼒㻌㼅㼑㼚䛆㻻㼞㼐㼕㼚㼍㼞㼥㻌㻭㼏㼏㼛㼡㼚㼠㻌㼛㼒㻌㻸㼛㼏㼍㼘㻌㻳㼛㼢㼑㼞㼚㼙㼑㼚㼠䛇

Expenditures
Debt Repayment and Interest Payment
Revenues
Tax Revenue
Difference between Expenditures and Revenues
Primary Balance in Ordinary Account of Local Government

䕦 㻝㻚㻜

䕦 㻟㻚㻜
㼀㼞㼕㼘㼘㼕㼛㼚㼟㻌㼛㼒㻌㼅㼑㼚

FY2019FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024FY2025

FY2026FY2027

FY2028FY2029FY2030

㻥㻣㻚㻥
㻝㻞㻚㻝
㻤㻠㻚㻠

㻝㻞㻟㻚㻝
㻝㻝㻚㻣
㻝㻜㻥㻚㻠

㻥㻢㻚㻣
㻝㻝㻚㻤
㻤㻞㻚㻝

㻥㻣㻚㻜
㻝㻝㻚㻡
㻤㻟㻚㻡

㻥㻤㻚㻝
㻝㻝㻚㻠
㻤㻢㻚㻝

㻥㻥㻚㻢
㻝㻝㻚㻞
㻤㻥㻚㻣

㻝㻜㻝㻚㻥
㻝㻝㻚㻞
㻥㻟㻚㻢

㻝㻜㻠㻚㻤
㻝㻝㻚㻞
㻥㻣㻚㻝

㻝㻜㻣㻚㻥
㻝㻝㻚㻠
㻝㻜㻜㻚㻞

㻝㻝㻜㻚㻤
㻝㻝㻚㻟
㻝㻜㻟㻚㻝

㻝㻝㻟㻚㻥
㻝㻝㻚㻞
㻝㻜㻢㻚㻟

㻝㻝㻣㻚㻝
㻝㻜㻚㻥
㻝㻜㻥㻚㻢

㻠㻟㻚㻣
㻝㻟㻚㻡

㻠㻟㻚㻜
㻝㻟㻚㻤

㻠㻜㻚㻤
㻝㻠㻚㻢

㻠㻞㻚㻡
㻝㻟㻚㻡

㻠㻠㻚㻝
㻝㻞㻚㻜

㻠㻢㻚㻝
㻝㻜㻚㻜

㻠㻤㻚㻟
㻤㻚㻟

㻡㻜㻚㻠
㻣㻚㻣

㻡㻞㻚㻟
㻣㻚㻣

㻡㻠㻚㻝
㻣㻚㻣

㻡㻡㻚㻥
㻣㻚㻢

㻡㻣㻚㻢
㻣㻚㻡

㻝㻚㻞

䕦 㻝㻚㻝

䕦 㻜㻚㻤

㻜㻚㻟

㻝㻚㻤

㻟㻚㻤

㻡㻚㻤

㻣㻚㻡

㻤㻚㻢

㻥㻚㻢

㻝㻜㻚㻤

㻝㻞㻚㻝

Notes 1. In "General Account of Central Government", up to FY2019 is based on the Settlement, FY2020 is based on the Settlement Highlight, and FY2021 is based on the FY2021 Budget. In "Ordinary
Account of Local Government," FY2019 is based on the Settlement.
2. "Policy Expenditures" is General Account Expenditures excluding interest payments, redemption of the national debt (excluding subsidy bonds) and carry-back of settlement deficit
compensation.
3. In "General Account of Central Government," "Other Revenues" in FY2019 and FY2020 consists of non-tax revenues and preceding fiscal year surplus received (FY2019: 14.1 trillion yen, FY2020:
15.2 trillion yen) excluding the balance of fiscal resources carried forward to the next year (FY2019: 6.6 trillion yen, FY2020: 30.8 trillion yen).
4. In "Ordinary Account of Local Government," "Revenues" excludes local bonds, reduction of reserve, and the balance of fiscal resources carried forward from total revenues. "Tax Revenue" is thetotal sum of local taxes and local transfer taxes.

6㻮㼍㼟㼑㼘㼕㼚㼑㻌㻯㼍㼟㼑䛆㻹㼍㼏㼞㼛㼑㼏㼛㼚㼛㼙㼥䛇㻔㻑㻕㻘㻌㼇㼞㼍㼠㼕㼛㻌㼠㼛㻌㻳㻰㻼㻘㻌㻑㼉㻘㻌㼀㼞㼕㼘㼘㼕㼛㼚㼟㻌㼛㼒㻌㼅㼑㼚

FY2019FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024FY2025

FY2026FY2027

FY2028FY2029FY2030Real GDP Growth
Real GNI Growth
Nominal GDP Growth㻔䕦㻜㻚㻡㻕
㻔䕦㻜㻚㻟㻕

㻔䕦㻠㻚㻢㻕
㻔䕦㻟㻚㻢㻕

㻔㻌㻟㻚㻣㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻥㻕

㻔㻌㻞㻚㻞㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻞㻕

㻔㻌㻞㻚㻜㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻤㻕
㻔㻌㻝㻚㻣㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻡㻕
㻔㻌㻝㻚㻡㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻞㻕
㻔㻌㻝㻚㻟㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻥㻕
㻔㻌㻝㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻥㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻥㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻥㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻤㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻤㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻤㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻟㻕

㻔䕦㻟㻚㻥㻕

㻔㻌㻟㻚㻝㻕

㻔㻌㻞㻚㻡㻕

㻔㻌㻞㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻤㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻢㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻠㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻞㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻝㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻝㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻝㻕

Nominal GDP㻡㻡㻤㻚㻟㻔㻌㻜㻚㻢㻕
㻠㻢㻜㻡㻟㻢㻚㻟㻔䕦㻟㻚㻢㻕
㻠㻠㻟㻡㻡㻟㻚㻜㻔㻌㻟㻚㻠㻕
㻠㻡㻤㻡㻢㻣㻚㻜㻔㻌㻟㻚㻠㻕
㻠㻣㻠㻡㻣㻤㻚㻠㻔㻌㻞㻚㻠㻕
㻠㻤㻢㻡㻤㻥㻚㻜㻔㻌㻞㻚㻠㻕
㻠㻥㻣㻡㻥㻤㻚㻣㻔㻌㻞㻚㻞㻕
㻡㻜㻤㻢㻜㻣㻚㻟㻔㻌㻞㻚㻜㻕
㻡㻝㻤㻢㻝㻠㻚㻟㻔㻌㻝㻚㻣㻕
㻡㻞㻣㻢㻞㻝㻚㻟㻔㻌㻝㻚㻣㻕
㻡㻟㻢㻢㻞㻤㻚㻝㻔㻌㻝㻚㻣㻕
㻡㻠㻡㻢㻟㻠㻚㻤㻔㻌㻝㻚㻣㻕
㻡㻡㻠㻔㻌㻜㻚㻣㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻢㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻞㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻥㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻥㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻥㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻥㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻤㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻡㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻝㻕

㻔䕦㻜㻚㻞㻕
㻔䕦㻝㻚㻠㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻝㻕
㻔㻌㻟㻚㻢㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻣㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻢㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻢㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻞㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻢㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻟㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻣㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻟㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻣㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻟㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻣㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻞㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻣㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻞㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻣㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻞㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻣㻕
㻔㻌㻜㻚㻞㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻥㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻟㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻢㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻥㻕

㻔䕦㻜㻚㻢㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻣㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻟㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻠㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻜㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻠㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻝㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻠㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻝㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻡㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻞㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻡㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻞㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻢㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻞㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻢㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻞㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻣㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻞㻕
㻔㻌㻞㻚㻣㻕

㻔䕦㻜㻚㻝㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻜㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻝㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻟㻕

㻔㻌㻜㻚㻣㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻝㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻠㻕

㻔㻌㻝㻚㻠㻕

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻝㼉
㼇㻌㻢㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻜㻚㻡㼉
㼇㻌㻝㻠㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻣㻚㻞㼉
㼇㻌㻝㻝㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻟㼉
㼇㻌㻣㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻠㼉
㼇㻌㻢㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉
㼇㻌㻡㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻞㼉
㼇㻌㻡㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻥㼉
㼇㻌㻠㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻣㼉
㼇㻌㻠㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻢㼉
㼇㻌㻠㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻣㼉
㼇㻌㻠㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻥㼉
㼇㻌㻠㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻠㻚㻞㼉

㼇䕦㻠㻚㻞㼉

㼇䕦㻠㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻠㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻠㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻣㼉

Nominal GNI Per Capita Growth
Nominal GNI Per Capita (䈜Ten thousand yen)
Potential GDP Growth
Change of Price
Consumer Prices
Corporate Goods Prices
GDP Deflator
Unemployment Rate
Long-term Interest Rate
Balance by Sector
General Government
PrivateOverseas䛆㻯㼑㼚㼠㼞㼍㼘㻌㼍㼚㼐㻌㻸㼛㼏㼍㼘㻌㻳㼛㼢㼑㼞㼚㼙㼑㼚㼠㼟㻓㻌㻼㼡㼎㼘㼕㼏㻌㻲㼕㼚㼍㼚㼏㼑㼟䛇㻔㻱㼤㼏㼘㼡㼐㼕㼚㼓㻌㼠㼔㼑㻌㼑㼤㼜㼑㼚㼐㼕㼠㼡㼞㼑㼟㻌㼍㼚㼐㻌㼠㼔㼑㻌㼒㼕㼟㼏㼍㼘㻌㼞㼑㼟㼛㼡㼞㼏㼑㼟㻌㼒㼛㼞㻌㼠㼔㼑㻌㼞㼑㼏㼛㼢㼑㼞㼥㻌㼍㼚㼐㻌㼞㼑㼏㼛㼚㼟㼠㼞㼡㼏㼠㼕㼛㼚㻌㼙㼑㼍㼟㼡㼞㼑㼟㻕㼇㼞㼍㼠㼕㼛㻌㼠㼛㻌㻳㻰㻼㻘㻌㻑㼉㻘㻌㼀㼞㼕㼘㼘㼕㼛㼚㼟㻌㼛㼒㻌㼅㼑㼚

FY2019FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024FY2025

FY2026FY2027

FY2028FY2029FY2030(ratio to nominal GDP)
Central Government䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻢
㼇䕦㻞㻚㻢㼉䕦 㻝㻢㻚㻝䕦 㻡㻢㻚㻠
㼇䕦㻝㻜㻚㻡㼉䕦 㻡㻡㻚㻥䕦 㻟㻣㻚㻤
㼇䕦㻢㻚㻤㼉䕦 㻟㻣㻚㻜䕦 㻝㻣㻚㻡
㼇䕦㻟㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻝㻤㻚㻝䕦 㻝㻞㻚㻝
㼇䕦㻞㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻤䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻜
㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉䕦 㻝㻞㻚㻤䕦 㻣㻚㻥㼇䕦㻝㻚㻟㼉䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻥䕦 㻢㻚㻤㼇䕦㻝㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻢䕦 㻢㻚㻞㼇䕦㻝㻚㻜㼉䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻠䕦 㻢㻚㻜㼇䕦㻝㻚㻜㼉䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻞䕦 㻢㻚㻜㼇䕦㻝㻚㻜㼉䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻝

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻥㼉䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻞

(ratio to nominal GDP)
Local Government(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇䕦㻞㻚㻥㼉
㻝㻚㻡㼇㻜㻚㻟㼉㼇䕦㻝㻜㻚㻠㼉䕦 㻜㻚㻡㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻢㻚㻣㼉䕦 㻜㻚㻤㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻞㼉
㻜㻚㻢㼇㻜㻚㻝㼉㼇䕦㻞㻚㻠㼉
㻝㻚㻢㼇㻜㻚㻟㼉㼇䕦㻞㻚㻞㼉
㻞㻚㻤㼇㻜㻚㻡㼉㼇䕦㻞㻚㻜㼉
㻠㻚㻜㼇㻜㻚㻣㼉㼇䕦㻝㻚㻥㼉
㻠㻚㻤㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉
㻡㻚㻞㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉
㻡㻚㻝㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉
㻡㻚㻞㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉
㻡㻚㻞㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉

Fiscal Balance(ratio to nominal GDP)䕦 㻞㻜㻚㻢䕦 㻢㻞㻚㻣䕦 㻠㻡㻚㻜䕦 㻞㻞㻚㻣䕦 㻝㻢㻚㻥䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻟䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻣䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻟

䕦 㻥㻚㻡

䕦 㻥㻚㻤

䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻡䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻠

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻣㼉䕦 㻞㻝㻚㻜

㼇䕦㻝㻝㻚㻣㼉䕦 㻢㻜㻚㻤

㼇䕦㻤㻚㻝㼉䕦 㻠㻞㻚㻥

㼇䕦㻠㻚㻜㼉䕦 㻞㻞㻚㻝

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻥㼉䕦 㻝㻣㻚㻡

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻠㼉䕦 㻝㻢㻚㻝

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻜㼉䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻣

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻞

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻢㼉䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻜

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻢㼉䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻞

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻥

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉䕦 㻝㻡㻚㻤

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻝㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻣㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻣㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻠㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻡㼉

㻜㻚㻠
㼇㻜㻚㻝㼉

䕦 㻝㻚㻥
㼇䕦㻜㻚㻠㼉䕦 㻞㻚㻝㼇䕦㻜㻚㻠㼉䕦 㻜㻚㻢㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㻜㻚㻡
㼇㻜㻚㻝㼉

㻝㻚㻤
㼇㻜㻚㻟㼉

㻟㻚㻜
㼇㻜㻚㻡㼉

㻟㻚㻥
㼇㻜㻚㻢㼉

㻠㻚㻠
㼇㻜㻚㻣㼉

㻠㻚㻠
㼇㻜㻚㻣㼉

㻠㻚㻠
㼇㻜㻚㻣㼉

㻠㻚㻠
㼇㻜㻚㻣㼉

㻝㻜㻢㻠㻚㻢

㻝㻝㻞㻝㻚㻢

㻝㻝㻢㻢㻚㻣

㻝㻝㻤㻟㻚㻥

㻝㻝㻥㻥㻚㻞

㻝㻞㻝㻞㻚㻥

㻝㻞㻞㻠㻚㻥

㻝㻞㻟㻡㻚㻠

㻝㻞㻠㻢㻚㻟

㻝㻞㻡㻣㻚㻤

㻝㻞㻣㻜㻚㻟

㻝㻞㻤㻠㻚㻢

㼇㻝㻥㻜㻚㻣㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻥㻚㻞㼉

㼇㻞㻝㻝㻚㻜㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻤㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻣㻚㻟㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻡㻚㻥㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻠㻚㻢㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻟㻚㻠㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻞㻚㻥㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻞㻚㻡㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻞㻚㻞㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻞㻚㻠㼉

FY2019FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024FY2025

FY2026FY2027

FY2028FY2029FY2030

㻝㻜㻝㻚㻠
㻣㻥㻚㻠

㻝㻠㻣㻚㻢
㻝㻞㻡㻚㻣

㻝㻜㻢㻚㻢
㻤㻟㻚㻠

㻝㻜㻜㻚㻥
㻣㻤㻚㻡

㻝㻜㻞㻚㻝
㻣㻥㻚㻟

㻝㻜㻟㻚㻠
㻤㻜㻚㻢

㻝㻜㻠㻚㻢
㻤㻝㻚㻤

㻝㻜㻡㻚㻤
㻤㻞㻚㻤

㻝㻜㻣㻚㻝
㻤㻟㻚㻢

㻝㻜㻤㻚㻢
㻤㻠㻚㻞

㻝㻝㻜㻚㻣
㻤㻡㻚㻜

㻝㻝㻞㻚㻥
㻤㻡㻚㻤

Social Security-related Expenditures
Local Allocation Tax Grants, etc.

㻟㻟㻚㻡

㻠㻟㻚㻜

㻟㻡㻚㻤

㻟㻢㻚㻤

㻟㻣㻚㻟

㻟㻣㻚㻥

㻟㻤㻚㻠

㻟㻤㻚㻤

㻟㻥㻚㻟

㻟㻥㻚㻤

㻠㻜㻚㻟

㻠㻜㻚㻣

㻝㻢㻚㻜

㻝㻢㻚㻟

㻝㻡㻚㻥

㻝㻡㻚㻞

㻝㻡㻚㻠

㻝㻢㻚㻜

㻝㻢㻚㻡

㻝㻢㻚㻥

㻝㻣㻚㻜

㻝㻢㻚㻥

㻝㻣㻚㻝

㻝㻣㻚㻞

OthersDebt Repayment and Interest Payment

㻞㻥㻚㻡
㻞㻞㻚㻟

㻢㻢㻚㻜
㻞㻞㻚㻟

㻟㻝㻚㻝
㻞㻟㻚㻤

㻞㻢㻚㻝
㻞㻞㻚㻤

㻞㻢㻚㻞
㻞㻟㻚㻞

㻞㻢㻚㻠
㻞㻟㻚㻞

㻞㻢㻚㻡
㻞㻟㻚㻞

㻞㻢㻚㻣
㻞㻟㻚㻠

㻞㻢㻚㻥
㻞㻟㻚㻥

㻞㻣㻚㻜
㻞㻠㻚㻥

㻞㻣㻚㻞
㻞㻢㻚㻝

㻞㻣㻚㻠
㻞㻣㻚㻡

㻢㻡㻚㻡
㻡㻤㻚㻠

㻠㻡㻚㻞
㻢㻜㻚㻤

㻢㻟㻚㻜
㻡㻣㻚㻠

㻢㻣㻚㻝
㻢㻝㻚㻠

㻢㻤㻚㻢
㻢㻞㻚㻥

㻣㻜㻚㻠
㻢㻠㻚㻢

㻣㻞㻚㻞
㻢㻢㻚㻟

㻣㻟㻚㻢
㻢㻣㻚㻣

㻣㻠㻚㻢
㻢㻤㻚㻢

㻣㻡㻚㻠
㻢㻥㻚㻠

㻣㻢㻚㻞
㻣㻜㻚㻝

㻣㻢㻚㻥
㻣㻜㻚㻤

Other Revenues
Difference between Expenditures and Revenues

㻣㻚㻜
㻟㻢㻚㻢

䕦 㻝㻡㻚㻢
㻝㻜㻤㻚㻢

㻡㻚㻢
㻠㻟㻚㻢

㻡㻚㻣
㻟㻟㻚㻥

㻡㻚㻣
㻟㻟㻚㻡

㻡㻚㻤
㻟㻟㻚㻜

㻡㻚㻥
㻟㻞㻚㻠

㻡㻚㻥
㻟㻞㻚㻞

㻢㻚㻜
㻟㻞㻚㻡

㻢㻚㻜
㻟㻟㻚㻞

㻢㻚㻝
㻟㻠㻚㻡

㻢㻚㻝
㻟㻢㻚㻜

Primary Balance in General Account of Central Government䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻥䕦 㻤㻜㻚㻠䕦 㻞㻜㻚㻠䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻠䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻣䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻞

䕦 㻥㻚㻢

䕦 㻥㻚㻞

䕦 㻥㻚㻜

䕦 㻤㻚㻣

䕦 㻤㻚㻤

Primary BalanceCentral Government(ratio to nominal GDP)
Local Government(ratio to nominal GDP)
Outstanding Debt
(ratio to nominal GDP)䛆㻳㼑㼚㼑㼞㼍㼘㻌㻭㼏㼏㼛㼡㼚㼠㻌㼛㼒㻌㻯㼑㼚㼠㼞㼍㼘㻌㻳㼛㼢㼑㼞㼚㼙㼑㼚㼠䛇

Expenditures(Policy Expenditures)

Revenues
Tax Revenue㼀㼞㼕㼘㼘㼕㼛㼚㼟㻌㼛㼒㻌㼅㼑㼚䛆㻻㼞㼐㼕㼚㼍㼞㼥㻌㻭㼏㼏㼛㼡㼚㼠㻌㼛㼒㻌㻸㼛㼏㼍㼘㻌㻳㼛㼢㼑㼞㼚㼙㼑㼚㼠䛇

Expenditures
Debt Repayment and Interest Payment
Revenues
Tax Revenue
Difference between Expenditures and Revenues
Primary Balance in Ordinary Account of Local Government

䕦 㻢㻚㻜

䕦 㻤㻚㻥
㼀㼞㼕㼘㼘㼕㼛㼚㼟㻌㼛㼒㻌㼅㼑㼚

FY2019FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024FY2025

FY2026FY2027

FY2028FY2029FY2030

㻥㻣㻚㻥
㻝㻞㻚㻝
㻤㻠㻚㻠

㻝㻞㻟㻚㻝
㻝㻝㻚㻣
㻝㻜㻥㻚㻠

㻥㻢㻚㻣
㻝㻝㻚㻤
㻤㻞㻚㻝

㻥㻣㻚㻜
㻝㻝㻚㻡
㻤㻟㻚㻡

㻥㻣㻚㻠
㻝㻝㻚㻠
㻤㻠㻚㻣

㻥㻤㻚㻝
㻝㻝㻚㻞
㻤㻢㻚㻟

㻥㻥㻚㻜
㻝㻝㻚㻞
㻤㻤㻚㻝

㻥㻥㻚㻤
㻝㻝㻚㻞
㻤㻥㻚㻢

㻝㻜㻝㻚㻜
㻝㻝㻚㻡
㻥㻜㻚㻣

㻝㻜㻝㻚㻥
㻝㻝㻚㻡
㻥㻝㻚㻟

㻝㻜㻞㻚㻣
㻝㻝㻚㻡
㻥㻞㻚㻝

㻝㻜㻟㻚㻟
㻝㻝㻚㻟
㻥㻞㻚㻥

㻠㻟㻚㻣
㻝㻟㻚㻡

㻠㻟㻚㻜
㻝㻟㻚㻤

㻠㻜㻚㻤
㻝㻠㻚㻢

㻠㻞㻚㻡
㻝㻟㻚㻡

㻠㻟㻚㻡
㻝㻞㻚㻣

㻠㻠㻚㻠
㻝㻝㻚㻤

㻠㻡㻚㻠
㻝㻜㻚㻥

㻠㻢㻚㻟
㻝㻜㻚㻞

㻠㻣㻚㻝
㻝㻜㻚㻟

㻠㻣㻚㻣
㻝㻜㻚㻡

㻠㻤㻚㻞
㻝㻜㻚㻢

㻠㻤㻚㻣
㻝㻜㻚㻠

㻝㻚㻞

䕦 㻝㻚㻝

䕦 㻜㻚㻤

㻜㻚㻟

㻝㻚㻝

㻝㻚㻤

㻞㻚㻤

㻟㻚㻢

㻟㻚㻤

㻟㻚㻢

㻟㻚㻢

㻟㻚㻢

Notes 1. In "General Account of Central Government", up to FY2019 is based on the Settlement, FY2020 is based on the Settlement Highlight, and FY2021 is based on the FY2021 Budget. In "Ordinary
Account of Local Government," FY2019 is based on the Settlement.
2. "Policy Expenditures" is General Account Expenditures excluding interest payments, redemption of the national debt (excluding subsidy bonds) and carry-back of settlement deficit
compensation.
3. In "General Account of Central Government," "Other Revenues" in FY2019 and FY2020 consists of non-tax revenues and preceding fiscal year surplus received (FY2019: 14.1 trillion yen, FY2020:
15.2 trillion yen) excluding the balance of fiscal resources carried forward to the next year (FY2019: 6.6 trillion yen, FY2020: 30.8 trillion yen).
4. In "Ordinary Account of Local Government," "Revenues" excludes local bonds, reduction of reserve, and the balance of fiscal resources carried forward from total revenues. "Tax Revenue" is thetotal sum of local taxes and local transfer taxes.

7䛆㻯㼑㼚㼠㼞㼍㼘㻌㼍㼚㼐㻌㻸㼛㼏㼍㼘㻌㻳㼛㼢㼑㼞㼚㼙㼑㼚㼠㼟㻓㻌㻼㼡㼎㼘㼕㼏㻌㻲㼕㼚㼍㼚㼏㼑㼟䛇㻔㻵㼚㼏㼘㼡㼐㼕㼚㼓㻌㼠㼔㼑㻌㼑㼤㼜㼑㼚㼐㼕㼠㼡㼞㼑㼟㻌㼍㼚㼐㻌㼠㼔㼑㻌㼒㼕㼟㼏㼍㼘㻌㼞㼑㼟㼛㼡㼞㼏㼑㼟㻌㼒㼛㼞㻌㼠㼔㼑㻌㼞㼑㼏㼛㼢㼑㼞㼥㻌㼍㼚㼐㻌㼞㼑㼏㼛㼚㼟㼠㼞㼡㼏㼠㼕㼛㼚㻌㼙㼑㼍㼟㼡㼞㼑㼟㻕㻱㼏㼛㼚㼛㼙㼕㼏㻌㻳㼞㼛㼣㼠㼔㻌㻭㼏㼔㼕㼑㼢㼑㼐㻌㻯㼍㼟㼑㻌㻔㻑㻕㻘㻌㼇㼞㼍㼠㼕㼛㻌㼠㼛㻌㻳㻰㻼㻘㻌㻑㼉㻘㻌㼀㼞㼕㼘㼘㼕㼛㼚㼟㻌㼛㼒㻌㼅㼑㼚

FY2019FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024FY2025

FY2026FY2027

FY2028FY2029FY2030䕦 㻝㻡㻚㻞䕦 㻡㻣㻚㻠䕦 㻟㻤㻚㻟䕦 㻝㻣㻚㻠䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻣

䕦 㻢㻚㻟

䕦 㻞㻚㻡

㻜㻚㻞

㻞㻚㻠

㻠㻚㻞

㻢㻚㻜

㻣㻚㻣

䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇䕦㻞㻚㻣㼉 㼇䕦㻝㻜㻚㻣㼉 㼇䕦㻢㻚㻥㼉㼇䕦㻟㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻠㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻜㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻠㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻢㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻜㼉

Central Government䕦 㻝㻢㻚㻢䕦 㻟㻣㻚㻡䕦 㻝㻤㻚㻝䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻜䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻜

䕦 㻥㻚㻟

䕦 㻤㻚㻠

䕦 㻣㻚㻠

䕦 㻢㻚㻡

䕦 㻡㻚㻤

䕦 㻡㻚㻞

䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇䕦㻟㻚㻜㼉 㼇䕦㻝㻜㻚㻢㼉 㼇䕦㻢㻚㻤㼉㼇䕦㻟㻚㻞㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻞㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻣㼉

㻜㻚㻣

㻞㻚㻠

㻠㻚㻣

㻢㻚㻥

㻤㻚㻢

㻥㻚㻤

㻝㻜㻚㻣

㻝㻝㻚㻤

㻝㻞㻚㻥

Primary Balance

Local Government
䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㻝㻚㻠䕦 㻡㻢㻚㻤

䕦 㻜㻚㻡

䕦 㻜㻚㻤

㼇㻜㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻠㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻟㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻡㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻡㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻢㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻣㼉

䕦 㻞㻝㻚㻞䕦 㻢㻟㻚㻣䕦 㻠㻡㻚㻡䕦 㻞㻞㻚㻣䕦 㻝㻡㻚㻡䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻢

䕦 㻢㻚㻟

䕦 㻟㻚㻠

䕦 㻝㻚㻡

䕦 㻜㻚㻢

䕦 㻜㻚㻝

䕦 㻜㻚㻟

䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇䕦㻟㻚㻤㼉 㼇䕦㻝㻝㻚㻥㼉 㼇䕦㻤㻚㻞㼉㼇䕦㻠㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻞㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻜㼉

Central Government䕦 㻞㻝㻚㻡䕦 㻠㻟㻚㻠䕦 㻞㻞㻚㻝䕦 㻝㻢㻚㻣䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻟䕦 㻝㻞㻚㻞䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻞䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻢䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻣䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻠䕦 㻝㻞㻚㻣䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇䕦㻟㻚㻤㼉 㼇䕦㻝㻝㻚㻡㼉 㼇䕦㻣㻚㻤㼉

Fiscal Balance䕦 㻢㻝㻚㻣

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻠㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉

Local Government

㻜㻚㻟

䕦 㻝㻚㻥

䕦 㻞㻚㻝

䕦 㻜㻚㻡

㻝㻚㻟

㻟㻚㻣

㻡㻚㻥

㻣㻚㻤

㻥㻚㻝

㻝㻜㻚㻝

㻝㻝㻚㻟

㻝㻞㻚㻠

䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇㻜㻚㻜㼉㼇䕦㻜㻚㻠㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻠㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻞㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻢㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻥㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻞㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻠㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻠㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻢㼉

㼇㻝㻚㻣㼉

㻝㻜㻣㻝㻚㻟

㻝㻝㻞㻥㻚㻝

㻝㻝㻣㻞㻚㻥

㻝㻝㻤㻥㻚㻥

㻝㻞㻜㻟㻚㻠

㻝㻞㻝㻟㻚㻞

㻝㻞㻞㻜㻚㻞

㻝㻞㻞㻡㻚㻟

㻝㻞㻟㻜㻚㻣

㻝㻞㻟㻢㻚㻣

㻝㻞㻠㻠㻚㻜

㻝㻞㻡㻟㻚㻤

㼇㻝㻥㻝㻚㻥㼉

㼇㻞㻝㻜㻚㻢㼉

㼇㻞㻝㻞㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻥㻚㻥㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻠㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻝㻥㻥㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻝㻥㻟㻚㻞㼉

㼇㻝㻤㻣㻚㻢㼉

㼇㻝㻤㻞㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻝㻣㻣㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻝㻣㻞㻚㻡㼉

㼇㻝㻢㻤㻚㻠㼉

Outstanding Debt
䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)

Baseline Case㼇㼞㼍㼠㼕㼛㻌㼠㼛㻌㻳㻰㻼㻘㻌㻑㼉㻘㻌㼀㼞㼕㼘㼘㼕㼛㼚㼟㻌㼛㼒㻌㼅㼑㼚

FY2019FY2020

FY2021

FY2022

FY2023

FY2024FY2025

FY2026FY2027

FY2028FY2029FY2030䕦 㻝㻡㻚㻞䕦 㻡㻣㻚㻠䕦 㻟㻤㻚㻟䕦 㻝㻣㻚㻠䕦 㻝㻞㻚㻜

䕦 㻥㻚㻡

䕦 㻣㻚㻡

䕦 㻢㻚㻞

䕦 㻡㻚㻡

䕦 㻡㻚㻠

䕦 㻡㻚㻠

䕦 㻡㻚㻟

䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇䕦㻞㻚㻣㼉 㼇䕦㻝㻜㻚㻣㼉 㼇䕦㻢㻚㻥㼉㼇䕦㻟㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻞㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻤㼉

Central Government䕦 㻝㻢㻚㻢䕦 㻟㻣㻚㻡䕦 㻝㻤㻚㻝䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻣䕦 㻝㻞㻚㻠䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻠䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻜䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻣䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻡䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻡䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻢䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇䕦㻟㻚㻜㼉 㼇䕦㻝㻜㻚㻢㼉 㼇䕦㻢㻚㻤㼉㼇䕦㻟㻚㻞㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻠㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻤㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉

Primary Balance䕦 㻡㻢㻚㻤

Local Government

㻝㻚㻠

䕦 㻜㻚㻡

䕦 㻜㻚㻤

㻜㻚㻣

㻝㻚㻣

㻞㻚㻤

㻠㻚㻜

㻠㻚㻤

㻡㻚㻞

㻡㻚㻝

㻡㻚㻞

㻡㻚㻞

䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇㻜㻚㻟㼉㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻟㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻡㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻣㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻤㼉

䕦 㻞㻝㻚㻞䕦 㻢㻟㻚㻣

Fiscal Balance䕦 㻠㻡㻚㻡䕦 㻞㻞㻚㻣䕦 㻝㻢㻚㻤䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻤䕦 㻝㻝㻚㻟

䕦 㻥㻚㻢

䕦 㻤㻚㻥

䕦 㻥㻚㻝

䕦 㻥㻚㻤

䕦 㻝㻜㻚㻤䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇䕦㻟㻚㻤㼉 㼇䕦㻝㻝㻚㻥㼉 㼇䕦㻤㻚㻞㼉㼇䕦㻠㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻡㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻢㼉

㼇䕦㻝㻚㻣㼉

Central Government䕦 㻞㻝㻚㻡䕦 㻠㻟㻚㻠䕦 㻞㻞㻚㻝䕦 㻝㻣㻚㻠䕦 㻝㻡㻚㻢䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻟䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻢䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻟䕦 㻝㻟㻚㻢䕦 㻝㻠㻚㻟䕦 㻝㻡㻚㻞䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇䕦㻟㻚㻤㼉 㼇䕦㻝㻝㻚㻡㼉 㼇䕦㻣㻚㻤㼉䕦 㻢㻝㻚㻣

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻥㼉

㼇䕦㻟㻚㻜㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻣㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻠㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻞㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻞㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻞㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻟㼉

㼇䕦㻞㻚㻠㼉

Local Government

㻜㻚㻟

䕦 㻝㻚㻥

䕦 㻞㻚㻝

䕦 㻜㻚㻡

㻜㻚㻢

㻝㻚㻤

㻟㻚㻜

㻟㻚㻥

㻠㻚㻠

㻠㻚㻠

㻠㻚㻠

㻠㻚㻠

䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)㼇㻜㻚㻜㼉㼇䕦㻜㻚㻠㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻠㼉

㼇䕦㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻟㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻡㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻢㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻣㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻣㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻣㼉

㼇㻜㻚㻣㼉

㻝㻜㻣㻝㻚㻟

㻝㻝㻞㻥㻚㻝

㻝㻝㻣㻞㻚㻥

㻝㻝㻤㻥㻚㻥

㻝㻞㻜㻡㻚㻝

㻝㻞㻝㻤㻚㻢

㻝㻞㻟㻜㻚㻡

㻝㻞㻠㻜㻚㻣

㻝㻞㻡㻝㻚㻞

㻝㻞㻢㻞㻚㻟

㻝㻞㻣㻠㻚㻢

㻝㻞㻤㻤㻚㻡

㼇㻝㻥㻝㻚㻥㼉

㼇㻞㻝㻜㻚㻢㼉

㼇㻞㻝㻞㻚㻝㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻥㻚㻥㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻤㻚㻟㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻢㻚㻥㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻡㻚㻡㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻠㻚㻟㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻟㻚㻣㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻟㻚㻞㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻞㻚㻥㼉

㼇㻞㻜㻟㻚㻜㼉

Outstanding Debt
䚷(ratio to nominal GDP)

8

(Notes)
1.
"Consumer Prices" refers to the general index (nationwide), including the direct effects of theincrease in the consumption tax rate.
2.

"Balance by Sector" represents "Net lending/net borrowing" in the System of National
Accounts (hereinafter “SNA”).

3.

"Fiscal Balance” (hereinafter “FB”) of the central and local governments represents "Netlending/net borrowing" in the SNA. "Primary Balance” (hereinafter “PB”) equals FB minus net
receivable interest (receivable interest [excluding FISIM] minus payable interest [excluding
FISIM]). The PBs of both the central and local governments include some special accounts inaddition to the general account. Although the debt repayments and interest payments of the Special
Account for the Local Allocation and Local Transfer Tax (hereinafter SALALTT) are classified as“Central Government” in SNA, in accordance with their contributions, here they are divided into
central and local governments.
It should be noted that the PB in the “General Account of Central Government” equals the sumof “Tax Revenue” and “Other Revenues” minus “General Account Expenditure Excluding Debt
Repayment and Interest Payment.” The PB in the “Ordinary Account of Local Government”
equals “Revenues” minus “Expenditure” excluding “Debt Repayment and Interest Payment” and“Reserves.”

4.

The figures for “Balance by Sector” for the general government and “Fiscal Balance” and“Primary Balance” of the central and local governments exclude the transfer of debts from theJapan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency to the general account in FY2008 andthe payment from the Japan Expressway Holding and Debt Repayment Agency to the generalaccount in FY2011 as one-off factors.

5.

“Outstanding Debt” is the sum of general bonds, special bonds for covering public pension
funding, local government bonds, and borrowing in SALALTT. The central government’s shareof the borrowing allocated to the general account in FY2007 is included under outstanding debt
in order to maintain the continuity of indices.

6.

The amount of the “expenditures and the fiscal resources for the recovery and reconstruction
measures” is the amount of expenditures for recovery and reconstruction from the Great East Japan
Earthquake that exceeds the transfer from the general account, which is compensated by the
reduction of other existing expenditures, and is securely financed by such fiscal resources asreconstruction bonds, securing further non-tax revenues, and special taxation for reconstruction,and the amount of the above fiscal resources.
Based on the “Act on Special Measures Concerning the Handling of Environment Pollution byRadioactive Materials Discharged by the NPS Accident Associated with the Tohoku District – Off
the Pacific Ocean Earthquake That Occurred on March 11, 2011” (date of promulgation: August30, 2011), the expenditure concerning the decontamination and interim storage facility project
which has been reimbursed from Tokyo Electric Power Company (hereinafter “TEPCO”) also
includes the expenditures for the recovery and reconstruction measures, deemed to ensure thecorresponding resources, considering the progress of payment from TEPCO.



9

Appendix: Key Assumptions

㻌

The GDP growth rate and inflation rate up to FY2019 are from the “Annual Report on National
Accounts for 2019” and those for FY2020 are from the “Quarterly Estimates of GDP for JanuaryMarch 2021 (Second Preliminary)” while those for FY2021 and FY2022 are from the Cabinet Office’s“Mid-Year Economic Projection for 2021” (July 6, 2021, submitted to the Council on Economic andFiscal Policy) and others.
㻌(1) Assumptions on Macroeconomy
Economic Growth Achieved Casea) Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Growth Rate
- The TFP growth rate rises from the current level (around 0.4 %) to around 1.3%, based on theextent and pace the Japanese economy actually experienced before it entered deflation.
(Specifically, the TFP growth rate rose around 0.9% in 5 years from FY1982 to FY1987.)
㻌b) Labor Force<Labor Force Participation (LFP) Rate>- The LFP rate shifts gradually to FY2030 based on the estimates of labor supply and demand forthe “case in which economic growth and labor participation are achieved” shown by the “Labor
Policy Study Group” (January 15, 2019) (for example, the LFP rate among females aged 25-44
gradually rises from around 80% in FY2020 to 89% in FY2030, the LFP rate among males aged
65-69 gradually rises from around 62% in FY2020 to 69% in FY2030, and the LFP rate amongfemales aged 65-69 gradually rises from around 40% in FY2020 to 49% in FY2030).

㻌< Foreign Workers>- Based on the “Population Projection for Japan” by the National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research, the non-Japanese population will increase (from 2.44 million in 2019 to 3.15
million in 2030). In addition, in accordance with the “Expected Number of Acceptance” shownin the “Basic Policy on Operation of the System Related to the Status of Residence of theSpecified Skilled Worker” (Cabinet Decision, December 25, 2018), the labor force increases withan expansion of acceptance of foreign workers of around 345 thousand persons.

c) World Economy<Real GDP Growth Rate of World Economy (considering the export shares from Japan [10 major
destination countries])>- The growth rate moves at around 3.3% to 3.5% annually from FY2023 to FY2025, based on the“World Economic Outlook” (WEO) by the IMF (April 2021). From FY2026 onward, the growthrate remains constant at around 3.3%.
<Inflation Rate (considering the export shares from Japan [10 major destination countries])>- The inflation rate moves at around 1.9% to 2.0% annually from FY2023 to FY2025, based on
the WEO (April 2021). From FY2026 onward, the inflation rate remains constant at around 2.0%.
<Crude Oil Prices>- From FY2023 onward, the price moves based on the rate of the “Commodity Markets Outlook”
by the World Bank (April 2021), at around 1.6%.

10Baseline Case
Differences from the above “Economic Growth Achieved Case” are as follows:a) TFP Growth Rate
- The TFP growth rate stays around 0.7 %. (Average from January 2002. (From the 14th businesscycle.))b) Labor Force<Labor Force Participation (LFP) Rate>- Based on the estimates of labor supply and demand for the “case in which economic growth andlabor participation are partly achieved” shown by the “Labor Policy Study Group” (January 15,2019) (for example, the LFP rate among females aged 25-44 gradually rises from around 80% in
FY2020 to 88% in FY2030, the LFP rate among males aged 65-69 gradually rises from around
62% in FY2020 to 64% in FY2030, and the LFP rate among females aged 65-69 gradually rises
from around 40% in FY2020 to 45% in FY2030).
c) World Economy<Real GDP Growth Rate of World Economy (considering the export shares from Japan [10 major
destination countries])>- The growth rate moves at around 2.5% to 2.7% annually from FY2022, which is about 0.8
percentage points* lower than the rate based on the WEO (April 2021) (around 3.3% to 3.5%).
* The 50% confidence interval of the projection in the WEO is taken into account.

(2) Tax System- Tax revenues of the general account of the central government in FY2019 are based on the“FY2019 Settlement,” those in FY2020 are based on the “FY2020 Settlement Highlight” andthose in FY2021 are based on the “FY2021 Budget.”- Based on the “the Act to Partially Amend the Income Tax Act and Others” (Act Number 11, 2021)
and other sources, the legislated tax system is assumed to continue.
- Based on the “Act on Special Measures for Securing Fiscal Resources Necessary to Implement
Measures for Reconstruction Following the Great East Japan Earthquake” (Act Number 117,2011) and the “Act on Temporary Special Provision on Local Tax to Secure Necessary Fiscal
Resources for Local Governments to Implement Policies for Disaster Prevention Related to
Recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake” (Act Number 118, 2011), the projections reflect
the implementation of the special tax for reconstruction and the rise in the individual inhabitant
tax on a per capita basis.
(3) Expenditures- The expenditures of the general account of the central government in FY2019 are based on the“FY2019 Settlement,” those in FY2020 are based on the “FY2020 Settlement Highlight” andthose in FY2021 are based on the “FY2021 Budget.”- Expenditures in FY2022 are calculated by taking changes in prices and wages, expenditurereform and other factors into consideration, with an assumption that the expenditure growth
excluding the increase due to population aging and other factors will consequently be curbed byabout half of what it would be if the expenditure reform carried out thus far is continued. In
addition, public fixed capital formation in FY2022 is assumed to be the average amount in themost recent five years at the nominal level based on the Cabinet Office’s “Mid-Year Economic
Projection.”- From FY2023 onward, it is assumed that social security expenditures will increase reflecting the
population aging, price and wage developments and the “Act to Partially Amend the Health
Insurance Act and Others to Build Social Security System Oriented to All Generations” (Act
Number 66, 2021), while other general expenditures will continue to increase at about the samerate as the inflation rate (constant in real terms). It is assumed that after the hikes of the11consumption tax rate, legislation related to the Comprehensive Reform of Social Security and
Tax will enable the gradual addition of certain new expenditures related to the implementation ofsocial security reform and others, under the consideration on enhancement of stabilization ofsocial security and fiscal consolidation in each fiscal year.
- The series of social security-related expenditures is endogenously obtained within the Economic
and Fiscal Model based on future demographics and macroeconomic dynamics. Considerable
leeway should be given when interpreting the projections since the series is significantly affectedby policies and other external factors.
- The supplementary budgets of Tokyo and Osaka prefectures are counted for FY2020.
(4) Assumptions on the Expenditures and Revenue Resources for Recovery and Reconstruction
from the Great East Japan Earthquake- Expenditures are assumed at around 31.3 trillion yen until FY2020 and around 1.6 trillion yen infive years from FY2021, based on the “Recovery and Reconstruction Work for the Five-Year
Period Starting in FY2016” (Reconstruction Promotion Conference Decision, June 24, 2015), the“Scale and Funding Sources for Recovery and Reconstruction Work during the Reconstruction
including the Five-Year Period Starting in FY2016” (Cabinet Decision, June 30, 2015), the“Reconstruction Efforts from FY2021” (Decision by Reconstruction Promotion Council, July 17,2020) and others.
- In the projections, it is assumed that around 32.9 trillion yen of revenue resources are secured by
the special tax for reconstruction, a reduction of expenditures, non-tax revenues and others basedon the “Basic Guidelines for the Third Supplementary Budget in FY2011 and the Fiscal
Resources for Reconstruction” (Cabinet decision, October 7, 2011), the “Scale and Funding
Sources for Recovery and Reconstruction Work from Now On” (Reconstruction Promotion
Conference Decision, January 29, 2013), the “Recovery and Reconstruction Work for the FiveYear Period Starting in FY2016” (Reconstruction Promotion Conference Decision, June 24,2015), the “Scale and Funding Sources for Recovery and Reconstruction Work during theReconstruction including the Five-Year Period Starting in FY2016” (Cabinet Decision, June 30,2015), the “Reconstruction Efforts from FY2021” (Decision by Reconstruction Promotion
Council, July 17, 2020) and others.
- The expenditure concerning the decontamination and interim storage project facility which will
be reimbursed from TEPCO and the actual payment corresponding to it are assumed to beapproximately 5.8 trillion yen in total, based on the “Basic Guideline for Accelerating theReconstruction of Fukushima from the Nuclear Disaster” (Cabinet Decision, December 20, 2016),
and the pattern of expenditure and revenue is assumed based on the progress of implementationand payment to date.

12