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Nagasaki 75th Anniversary Pandemic-Nuclear Nexus Scenarios Project“Pandemic Futures and Nuclear Weapon Risks”
Nagasaki, Japan
October 2020
Co-hosted by: Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University(RECNA), Nautilus Institute and Asia Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament (APLN)
Cooperation with: Nagasaki University Planetary Health Project, School of Global
Humanities and Social Science, Panel on Peace and Security of Northeast Asia (PSNA),
Background2020 is a special year for nuclear disarmament, as it is the 75 th the anniversary of atomic
bombings over Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and the 50 th anniversary of actuation of the Treaty
on Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). But nuclear threats and risks are now
considered highest since the end of World War II, as the “doomsday clock” published by the
Bulletin of Atomic Scientists show only “100 seconds” to midnight, which is the closest thedoomsday since the clock was introduced.
Besides, new corona-virus (COVID-19) pandemic is now threatening the world, affecting
all aspects of international society. Nuclear disarmament is no exception. The 10 th NPT
Review Conference which was scheduled to take place this April to May has been postponed
to early 2021. It is not clear at all how this pandemic will affect the international order, as
there are parallel trends in the world. One is the increasing international cooperation andsolidarity to fight against the pandemic, and the other is increasing conflicts and antagonism
among major countries. Therefore, it is critically important now to analyze the relationshipbetween post-pandemic international order and the nuclear weapon risks.
In addition, both in the area of nuclear disarmament and of movements against COVID -19
pandemics, the role of local governments and non-governmental institutions play pivotal
roles in reducing critical risks. It is also important to understand the role of civil society inpandemic era to reduce nuclear risks.
Objectives
The basic objectives of this “Nagasaki Scenario Process” project are the following.
1.

To explore various future scenarios in short and mid-long term future (up to 2030) in
dealing with nuclear weapon risks in the context of pandemic-era

2.

To identify key driving factors to drive nuclear disarmament and reducing nuclear risks1[ここに入力]

in pandemic era
3.

To understand the role of civil society in uncertain future of pandemic-era to reduce
nuclear risks

4.

To draw implications for Japan and the Northeast Asia to reduce nuclear risks in apandemic era.

Approach
We will give a contract to Nautilus Institute, who has wide network and deep experiencesin scenario planning approach, including experienced facilitators, to conduct on-line
scenario process on the theme of “Pandemic Futures and Nuclear Weapon Risks”. We invitevariety of experts to join the process, while reflecting views of Nagasaki citizens is essential.
In addition, we will ask PSNA co-chairs to write individual essays based on scenarios
developed under this project. Scenarios will be published under the name ofRECNA/Nautilus Institute with cooperation from Nagasaki University Planetary Health
Program (Institute of Tropical Medicine, Global Humanities and Social Science), PSNA andAPLN.


Schedule: On-line (Zoom) Workshops

1st round: October 31 (Sat) 9:00-13:00 and Nov. 1 (Sun) 9:30-13:00 [Japan Time]
2nd round: November 14 (Sat) 9:00-13:00 and Nov. 15 (Sun) 9:30-13:00 [Japan Time]
Only the Opening session will be open to the public and media, live stream via You Tube:<https://nautilus.org/livestream> or <https://youtu.be/qFrnkgrex0Q>)
Opening Session I
9:00

Prof. S. Shirabe (Nagasaki University)

9:05

Message from Mayor Tomihisa Taue

9:10

Eun-ha Kwon (APLN)

9:15

Dr. Gareth Evans (Former Foreign Minister of Australia, APLN)

9:25

Dr. Peter Hayes (Nautilus Institute)

Opening Session II
9:30

Presentation of Working Papers (1) [Sigal, Moon]

10:30

Break10:40

Presentation of Working Papers (2) [Legge/Kim, Taylor/Moji, Tomonaga]

11:40

End

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Outcome:

1. Future Scenarios of “Pandemic and Nuclear Weapons in Northeast Asia” (Dec.2020)
2. Policy Recommendations based on Future Scenario Workshop (Feb. 2021)

A focal Question

What are the opportunities driven by global pandemics for Northeast Asian governments, civil
so ciety, and market actors to reduce nuclear risk and resume nuclear disarmament?

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