EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the inefficacy of nation-states andinternational institutions in managing global risks and introduced newdynamics—including economic recession, border closures, vaccine competition,and shifts in military behavior—that could heighten the risk of nuclear disaster inthe years to come. The threat of nuclear war is particularly urgent in theNortheast Asia region, the locus of multiple simmering conflicts. Leaders today
must take urgent action to mitigate the rising threat of nuclear war in the era ofpandemics reflecting the voice of Nagasaki, “Let Nagasaki be the Last!”

Specific recommendations include the following:•Slowing and reversing nuclear force developments and operations in theNortheast Asia region, including through nuclear-weapon-free zones andnonproliferation treaties•

Developing a secure, reliable nuclear hotline network for communicating
in a nuclear crisis•

Launching public health security initiatives in the Northeast Asia region torespond to pandemics•

Engaging younger generations in the nuclear disarmament movement
and mobilizing a broader base of potential stakeholders in nuclear issues•

Enlarging existing city networks such as Mayors for Peace andestablishing new city/regional cooperation networks to play a more directrole in reducing nuclear risk and pushing for nuclear disarmament•

Solving the DPRK puzzle and denuclearizing the Korean peninsula•

Increasing monitoring and controls for the storage and transportation ofnuclear materials•

Reforming existing global institutions and establishing new programs andinitiatives to improve collaboration among nation-states1•Taking advantage of the proliferation of apps and sensors for “on-theground” information in a nuclear crisis, while ensuring that authorities do
not abuse these apps for social and political control•Developing new platforms for sharing emergency response information
and ways to ensure the integrity of this information

These recommendations were developed through the Nagasaki 75th
Anniversary Pandemic-Nuclear Nexus Scenarios Project, an international
initiative aimed at exploring how the far-reaching effects of the COVID-19
pandemic (and future pandemics) could alter the landscape for nuclear risk anddisarmament. This event aimed to identify opportunities for governments, civilsociety, and market actors to reduce nuclear risk and resume nuclear
disarmament in Northeast Asia, with special attention to new strategies
emerging from this unprecedented time in history.
Convened as a series of online workshops in October-November 2020, theproject brought together nearly 50 participants from diverse backgrounds, ages,and nationalities.1 The Project was co-sponsored by the Research Center for
Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA), the Asia-Pacific
Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament (APLN),
and the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability, in cooperation with theNagasaki University Planetary Health Project and the Panel on Peace andSecurity of Northeast Asia (PSNA).
The goals of the workshop were to (1) develop an analytical understanding of
the interrelated nature of the co-occurring existential threats of nuclear weaponsand global pandemics; (2) explore potential levers and pathways to influence
the future under various conditions; and (3) identify concrete strategies to1

The opening session, featuring Nagasaki Mayor Tomihisa Taue, former Australian Foreign

Minister Gareth Evans, and four expert presentations, was livestreamed and may be viewed
here: https://youtu.be/qFrnkgrex0Q?t=1352

reduce the risk of nuclear war and resume nuclear disarmament by state andnon-state actors, particularly in the Northeast Asia region.

The workshops were structured through a process of scenario planning, awidely used methodology for imagining future conditions that are highly
uncertain and generating robust strategies for shaping the future. Participants
developed four plausible futures for the year 2030 that aim to help explore thefocal question:

What are the opportunities driven by global pandemics for Northeast Asian
governments, civil society, and market actors to reduce nuclear risk and resume
nuclear disarmament?

The scenarios weredeveloped based on theintersection of two criticaluncertainties: (1) Will the
locus of influence and powerin nuclear disarmament
reside with nation-states, orwill it shift toward non-stateactors, such as local
governments and civil society organizations? And (2) will the relationships andmutual actions among actors be characterized by fragmentation and isolation orcollaboration and cooperation? The scenario narratives are described in theScenarios section, beginning on page 14. In summary, the following four
scenarios were developed:● Middle Powers Rising: National governments are the primary locus ofinfluence, and the approach to global risks is collaborative. The
pandemic brings about a new recognition of the critical role of global,
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multilateral collaboration for dealing with existential risks like pandemics
and climate change. “Middle power” countries fill the leadership void leftby traditional superpowers.
● Local Powers Step Up: The locus of power and influence shifts toward
non-nation-state actors, and the approach to challenges is collaborative.
The scenario envisions a new role for local governments and civil society
to lead a bottom-up effort to address increasingly dire existential
challenges that national governments prove incapable of tackling by
themselves.
● Island Mentality: In this scenario, national governments are the primary
drivers of influence, but the approach to global risks like pandemics andnuclear deterrence is fragmented. Resurgent nationalism around theworld has led to heightened tension and a sense of instability and fear ofwar.
● Fragile Optimism: The role of nation-states has diminished and nonstate actors—including cities and civil society organizations—havestepped up to fill the gap. But there is a lack of coordination among thesegroups, and they often find themselves working at cross-purposes.

Through exploring these scenarios, participants identified steps that could betaken today to help advance the challenge of nuclear disarmament in a world
re-shaped by pandemics, as detailed in the Recommendations on page 29. The
next step in this project will be to develop more concrete recommendations forpolicymakers, who must now adopt and implement practical measures tomanage existential risks posed by the nexus of pandemics with nuclear
weapons.

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