Climate Modeling for Global
Warming Projection at the MRIAkira Noda and MRI-CGCM modeling group
Meteorological Research Institute• Transient runs with MRI-CGCMs• Downscaling with MRI regional
climate models• Earth system modeling for thecarbon cycle and chemical
mass transport

Climate Modelingat MRI

Global AGCM
20km

Chemical
Mass
Transport
Ozone
CMT
Aerosol
CMT
CarbonCycle

Cloud
Resolving
Regional
Climate Model
5km

Ice SheetandGlacierGlobalMRI-CGCM2
300km/250km

Asian Regional
Climate model
60km

Coupled Regional
Climate Model
20km/20km

•••••••••••••••••••••••

FeatureMRI-CGCM1
MRI-CGCM2• Atmospheric component
Horizontal resolution 5° (long.) x 4° (lat.)T42 (~2.8° x 2.8°)
Layers (top)15 (1 hPa)
30 (0.4 hPa)
Solar radiation
Lacis and Hansen (1974)
Shibata and Uchiyama (1992)
H2O, O3, CO2, O2aerosol(SW)
H2O, O3Long wave radiation Shibata and Aoki (1989)
Shibata and Aoki (1989)
H2O, CO2, O3, CH4, N2O(LW)
H2O, CO2, O3
Convection
Arakawa and Schubert (1974)
Prognostic Arakawa-Schubert
Randall and Pan (1993)
Planetary Boundary Bulk layer (Tokioka et al., 1988)
Mellor and Yamada (1974)
Layer (PBL)
Gravity wave dragPalmer et al. (1986)
Iwasaki et al. (1989)
Rayleigh friction
Rayleigh friction
Cloud type
Penetrative convection,
Penetrative convection
Middle-level convection,
Large-scale condensation,
Large-scale condensation
stratus in PBL
Cloudiness
Saturation
Function of relative humidity
Cloud overlap
Random for nonconsecutive clouds, Random + correlation
0.3 for convective clouds
Cloud water content Function of pressure andFunction of temperaturetemperature
Land process
4-layer diffusion model3-layer simple biosphere (SiB)

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FeatureMRI-CGCM1
MRI-CGCM2• Oceanic component
Horizontal resolution 2.5° (long) x 2° to 0.5° (lat)Layers (min. thickness)
21 (5.2 m)
23 (5.2 m)
Eddy viscosity
H. visc. 2.0 x 105 m2s–1
H. visc. 1.6 x 105 m2s–1
V. visc. 1 x 10–4 m2s–1
V. visc. 1 x 10–4 m2s–1
Eddy mixing
Horizontal-vertical mixing
Isopycnal mixing+ Gent and McWilliams (1990)
Isopycnal 2.0 x 103 m2s–1
H. diff. 5.0 x 103 m2s–1
V. diff. 5.0 x 10–5m2s–1
Diapycnal 1.0 x 10–5 m2s–1
Vertical viscosity and Mellor and Yamada (1974, 1982)
diffusivity
Sea ice

Mellor and Kantha (1989)••••

Coupling interval
Flux adjustment

Atmosphere-ocean coupling
6 hours
24 hours
Heat, salinity
Heat, salinity+ wind stress (in the equatorialband 12°S to 12°N)

IPCC SRES and Stabilization
Scenarios

A2
A1B
B2

MRI-CGCM2.3

Surface Air Temp. Change(2071-2100) – (1961-1990))（1961~1990）¾変化パターンに大きな差は見られない。
MRI-CGCM2.3

Spatial patterns of Global Warming
and Natural Variability
MRI-CGCM
Due to CO2 increase

Due to El Nino大−＋小Spatial patterns of Global Warming
and Natural Variability
Had-CGCM
Due to CO2 increase

Due to El Nino−小＋大Spatial patterns of Global Warming
and Natural Variability
GFDL-CGCM
Due to CO2 increase

Due to El Nino−

小＋大Mechanism of ENSO-like Change
Meehl and Washington,
1996

WEST

Knutson and Manabe,
1995,1998

WARM
200ｍ

INDONESIA

Mechanism of ENSO

Walker circulation

Kitoh et al,
1999

EASTCane et al,
1997

COLD

PERU

ENSO-like ChangeMechanism of AO-like Change

Temp. dependenceof moist adiabaitic
laps ratesnow-ice melt
stable stratification

Manabe and Wetherald (1975)

stronger snow/albedo
feedback near the troughs
Noda et al. (1996)

Possible global warming patterns suggested by CGCMs

Observed trend

Comparison between Simulated AO-likeand ENSO-like Changes
El Niño
AO

NonAO

CCCma
CSIRO
GFDL/R30
HadCM2
IPSL
MRI2
NCAR

El NiñoSO ?

El Niño
SO: La Niña

La NiñaCCSR/NIES
HadCM3

ECHAM3/LSG
ECHAM4/OPYC3 MRI1
GFDL15

Climate Modelingat MRI

Global AGCM
20km

ChemicalMassTransport
Ozone
CMT
Aerosol
CMTCarbon
Cycle

Cloud
Resolving
Regional
Climate Model
5km

Ice SheetandGlacierGlobalMRI-CGCM2
300km/250km

Asian Regional
Climate model
60km

Coupled Regional
Climate Model
20km/20km

Carbon Cycle Model (included in MRI-CGCM)
Atmosphere

NPP (Temp., Precipitation)

insolation

pCO2air∆pCO2 ×exchange coeff.

leaf
1yr

pCO2seamehcbranch10yr

litter106nBiosphere

138 O
116

deeplayer

2

Phosphate
Alkalinity

106

CaCO319

DICe(−z/3500m)

Terrestrial Biosphere Model follows Goudriaan and Ketner (1984).
NPP (Miami model: Lieth (1975), Friedlingstein et al. (1992)).

Advection andDiffusion
by OGCMdissolution

stable humus
charcoalremineralizationi onhumus

DIC

surface layer
(60m)
9.5
19138 Oat e2hpsu c tio
hon〜Insolation×P

Particulate
Organic
Matter(z/100m)−0.9t
pira
res

10yr

50yr
500yr

1root
reTerrestrial spiratio

1yr

Pro dO2 saturation

Alkalinity
Phosphate

16Ne wum

Ocean50yr

stemieqc alribiliu

9.5

Ocean model by Obata (2001) and Obata and Kitamura (2003)

気象研海洋炭素循環モデルによる海洋大気間二酸化炭素交換の経年変動(1961-1998)
Ocean Carbon Cycle Modelby Meteorological Research InstituteClimate change experiment
1961-1998 (driven by NCEP
wind and JMA SST)
Figure:Sea-to-Air CO2 flux
(in GtC/year)
dashed line: global (variability (1std) = 0.23
GtC/yr)solid thick line: each region
Equatorial eastern Pacific (0.13 GtC/yr) is
dominant by the ENSO (during El Niño, weakeasterly, weak upwelling, reduced carbon supply
from deeper waters and reduced sea-air CO2 flux).

Obata and Kitamura,Interannual variability of the sea-air exchange of CO2 from 1961 to 1998 …..,J. Geophys. Res., 108 (C11), 2003.

Net Primary Production(empirically determined from temperature
andprecipitation, including pCO2air fertilizationeffect)

MRI model in 1976
(pCO2air = 315ppm)

More detailed model
Woodward et al. (GBC, 1995)

Global amount =58 GtC/yearGlobal warming experiment using Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission (IS92a scenario 1999-2100)（N2O, CH4, Halocarbon, tropos. Ozone: IS92a concentration）

Emission: CDIAC(1850-1998), IS92a(1999-2100).

GtC℃

Carbon budget 1850-2100Emission

Initial（1850）
Atmos 592 GtC
Ocean 36343 GtC
Land 2412 GtC

Global surface air temperature1000 GtC

AtmosOcean 0Land
year

ppm

Negative denotes
increase for ocean andland.
mm/yearAtmospheric CO2700 ppm

year
Warming of 1℃→→Warming of 1.5℃

Global precipitation

600
500

Observation

Model 400
300

year

CO2 to the atmosphere from land-use change(e.g., 124 GtC: 1850-1990) is not included.

year

Atlantic Meridional
Circulation related toNADW formation(Contour interval = 2×106m3/s)

Year: 1860

Depth (m)Global warming experiment (IS92a CO2emission)

Year: 2100

Depth (m)NADW is reduced by 20 %.
18Sv
↓
14Sv

Climate Modelingat MRI

Global AGCM
20km

ChemicalMass
TransportOzone
CMTAerosol
CMTCarbonCycle

Cloud
Resolving
Regional
Climate Model
5km

Ice SheetandGlacierGlobalMRI-CGCM2
300km/250km

Asian Regional
Climate model
60km

Coupled Regional
Climate Model
20km/20km

1981〜2010
Present
Climate2041〜2080
WarmedClimateAnnual mean SST

RCM

Observation（WOA）

Dynamical sea level height (cm)Model

TOPEX/Poseidon（1993-1999）

Climate Modelingat MRI

Global AGCM
20km

ChemicalMassTransport
Ozone
CMT
Aerosol
CMT
CarbonCycle

Cloud
Resolving
Regional
Climate Model
5km

Ice SheetandGlacierGlobalMRI-CGCM2
300km/250km

Asian Regional
Climate model
60km

Coupled Regional
Climate Model
20km/20km

Earth Simulator

２０ｋｍメッシュ全球気候モデルによる
現在気候の再現
１時間降水量(mm)TL959による台風のシミュレーション• 動画

Simulationsof Tropical Cyclones
With AGCM of T106

Sugi, Noda and Sato(JMSJ, 2002)

More results are coming soon.

Acknowledgment
Computational resources are supplied by
MRI, CGER/NIES and Earth Simulator.