Climate change experimentswith a Hi-res. climate model〜 current status and future plans 〜
The K-1 Japan Project Team*Team*A. Sumi1, M. Kimoto1, S. Emori2, H. Hasumi1, T. Nozawa3,Ta. Suzuki2, T. Nishimura2, T. Inoue4, F. Saito1,T. Ogura3, A. Abe-Ouchi1, R. Ohgaito2, T. Segawa2,T. Sakamoto2, S. Hasegawa2, A. Oka1, T. Nagashima3,T. Yokohata3, N. Okada3, Ts. Suzuki2, and students1
1 Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), Univ. of Tokyo
2 Frontier Research System for Global Change (FRSGC)
3 National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
4 Research Organization for Information Science & Technology (RIST)(RIST)

What is “The K-1 Project” ?
¾ Joint project : CCSR + NIES + FRSGC¾ Funded by Ministry of Education, Culture,Sports, Science and Technology of Japan¾ First item of Research Revolution 2002
¾ “Kyousei Project Dai 1 Kadai” in Japanese¾ Develop a high-resolution climate models for
the Earth Simulator¾ Contribute to the IPCC AR4¾ Understand dynamics of climate system

The Earth Simulator
CTL:Cartridge Tape Library system
Magnetic Disk system
Electromagnetic Shield

PN Cabinets(320)

IN Cabinets (65)d)(71y65m

Double Floor for cables
Power Supply system

Air Conditioning system

5y50m (5d)Seismic Isolation system

The CCSR/NIES/FRSGC Coupled
Ocean-Atmosphere GCM for the Earth
Simulator: MIROC 3.1¾ Atmosphere: Spectral T106 (120km) 56 levelsoo¾ Ocean & Ice: Grid 1/4 x1/6 48 levelsoo¾ Land: 1/2 x1/2 MATSIRO SVATS modeloo¾ River: 1/2 x1/2 TRIP river routing model¾ Parallelized with MPI on 80PE for atmos. and608PE for ocean (13% of whole ES)¾ Atmos. and ocean run simultaneously on separate
PE groups (MPMD coupling).
No flux correction applied

Hi-CGCM: a pilot 40-yr integration

Mid-CGCM*

Hi-CGCM

Parameter adjustment*T42L20+1ox1.4oL43

Obs.

Hi-CGCMObs.

Hi-CGCM(test)Obs.

Hi-CGCMObs.

Hi-CGCMHi-CGCM

Mid-CGCM

CT02603b

Standard Deviationof SSTObs.

Hi-CGCMMid-CGCM

Atlantic
Thermohaline Circulation

Atlantic Overturning Circulation

OGCM

Hi-CGCMJJA precipitation
Obs.

Hi-CGCMMid-CGCM

Looking at higher moment statistics?

-Verification of daily rainfall frequency over Japan (120-140E, 30N-40N)

CGCM resultsTropical Cyclone Tracks
Observed(872)
AGCM
(674)
CGCM
(228)

The K-1 Japan Project team is
supposed to conduct…
¾ CMIP-type run (1% per year increase in CO2)
¾ 20th century climate reproduction¾ SRES scenario runs
- A1B and B1 scenarios with Hi-CGCM- All 6 marker scenarios with Mid-CGCM¾ Stabilization runs
- Nominal 750 ppmv stab. after 2100 (SRES A1B)
- Nominal 550 ppmv stab. after 2100 (SRES B1)- Should we do non-CO2 GHG scenario runs ???

A pilot
CMIP-type
experiment
with
Hi-CGCM~ 4.7oC/100yr

20th century run¾ External forcing fields are completed¾ Coupled with aerosol transport model¾ Include major four species of aerosols (sulfate,carbonaceous, sea salt, and soil dust)¾ Include 1st and 2nd kind indirect effect¾ Preliminary runs are conducted by using themiddle resolution AGCM forced by HadISST &HadICE

External Forcings¾ Natural forcings

9 Solar variability (Lean et al., 1995)
9 Volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere (Sato et al., 1993)
9 Terpene and continuous volcanic eruptions¾ Anthropogenic forcings
9 Well-mixed greenhouse gases
9 Stratospheric ozone depletion
9 Tropospheric ozone increase
9 Sulfate aerosols due to fossil fuel use
9 Carbonaceous aerosols due to fossil fuel combustion,
agricultural waste burning, fuelwood consumption, andforest fires¾ Sea salt and soil dust aerosols are calculated frommeteorological variables (wind speed, soil moisture,etc.) and are not considered as external forcing

Historical Emission of
Anthropogenic SO2¾ Country-base historical inventory(Lefohn et al., 1999)¾ Gridded with population distribution map
obtained from SEDAC and HYDE database

Historical Emission of
Anthropogenic Black Carbon¾ Country-base historical inventory of
9UN Energy Statistics, IEA Energy Balances,
International Historical Statistics for fossil fuelcombustion
9FAOSTAT, FAO Production Yearbook,International Historical Statistics for agricultural
waste burning
9FAOSTAT and a few population data for fuelwood
consumption
9GEIA scaled by historical population numbers forforest fire

¾ Gridded by population distribution

Simulated Column Aerosol Burden

Simulated Column Aerosol BurdenGlobal & Annual Mean SAT ChangeLinear temperature
trend(1910-1945)OBS

No INDIRECT

With INDIRECTLinear temperature
trend(1946-1975)OBS

No INDIRECT

With INDIRECTLinear temperature
trend(1976-2000)OBS

No INDIRECT

With INDIRECT

Global & Annual Mean Precip.
ChangeGlobal & Annual Mean Changes
in Cloud Radiative Forcing

No INDIRECT
With INDIRECTCloud Top Effective Cloud RadiusClimate sensitivity¾ Highly sensitive to cloud water phase diagnosis¾ Further observation needed for evaluation

How should cloud water phase be determined？
Empirical functions for cloud water phase diagnosis
FLIQ = liq/(ice+liq) 1.0 Del Genio et al.1996
0.8

landocean

0.6
UK Met.Office

CCSR/NIES 5.7b 0.4(Mitchell et al.)0.20-40

ECMWF-30-20-100 [℃]Temperature. . . further observation needed for evaluation.
Is climate sensitivity affected by modifying FLIQ (CCSRÆUK)?

Doubled CO2 sensitivity
Global-annual mean 2m temperature[℃] 201918
ΔT2m=4.7℃

17CCSR16UK

ΔT2m=3.6℃

15140102030[years]Doubled CO2 sensitivity is 1.1oC lower for UK-type than CCSR.

Summary¾ Hi- & Mid-CGCMs have been integrated successfully
without flux adjustment.
¾ Resolution helps for resolving smaller-scaledisturbances.
- Able to discuss changes in regional weather, including Baiufrontal rainfall¾ An improved version of the Hi-CGCM by the end ofFY2003- Introduction of an on-line aerosol transport; direct, 1st and2nd indirect effects- Better organized tropical convective systems; typhoons, … ,and ENSO
- More control over climate sensitivity, high-latitude oceanic
eddies and NADW

Thank you for yourattention !