The 19th AIM International Workshop
Oyama Memorial Hall at NIES
13‐14 December 2013

Co‐benefits of reducing non‐CO2 emissionsin Asiaby achieving 2 degree target pathways
Tatsuya Hanaoka
National Institute for Environmental Studies

Topics

1. Overview of AIM/Enduse related activities.
2. Major outcome of AIM/Enduse[Global] inFY2012-FY2013
3. Discussion: Co-benefits of reducing air
pollutants emissions in Asia by achieving 2degree target pathways

Overview of AIM/Enduse related activities‐ model development and activities ‐Scenarios for achieving GHG emission pathways consistent with the 2℃ target
cv
Globalscale Updating energy resource constraints and costs (especially, renewables).
 Analyzing future service demands transitions , appropriate to eachregional/national characteristic.
 Expanding target sectors, target gases and target regions.
 Expanding time horizon from 2050 to 2100.
 Updating data in the base‐year and in the socio‐economic baseline Analyzing benefits of reducing GHGs, air pollutants and ODSs.
Today’s topic
and so onNationalscale Breaking‐up into province scale analyses
 Enhancing sufficient evidences and data at a national scale Analyzing service demands and discussing transitions toward LCSLocalscale Around 16,000 Large Point Sources data in 30 countries in Asia
(Power, Steel, Cement, Petro‐chemistry, Petroleum‐refinery)
 Socio‐economic data in area sources.

3

Next research topics for AIM/Enduse‐ transition from IPCC AR4 to IPCC AR5 ‐IPCC AR4Three papers discussed how to achieve 450 CO2eq ppm concentration target
which is equivalent to 2℃ global temperature limit above pre‐industrial levels

Policy makers in COP15 paid attention to the 2℃ global temperature limit
above pre‐industrial levels in the Copenhagen Accord in 2009

IPCC AR5
Various papers analysed the role of negative CO2 emissions for achieving
GHG emission pathways consistent with the 2℃ target Biomass energy with CCS (BECCS) is one of the essential technologies
and it is difficult to achieve the 2℃ target without BECCS
 Limitations and uncertainties of a large number of CCS and biomass Energy efficiency improvement plays a key role. But the rate of change
toward the 2℃ target is not in line with the current trends, much faster.

Next research topics are ・・・4Major Outcome of AIM/Enduse[Global]
from FY2012-2013
Scenario name50% default
50% nonucccs
50% nonucccs&mefDescription
Reducing global GHG emissions by 50% relative to the 1990.
Variant of 50% default scenario.
CCS is not available and no new nuclear power plants are built.
Variant of 50% default scenario. CCS is not available and no new nuclear power plants
are built. Material efficiency is improved.

 The cost for achieving a 50% reduction target becomes high if nuclear and CCS are limited,
because additional investment for expensive technologies is required in order tocompensate for emission increases in the steel, cement and power generation.

Sectoral breakdown of CO2 emission
In 2050Source)

10080Trillion US$

50% default
50% nonucccs

GtCO

65432
10‐1‐2‐3

60

50% default
50% nonucccs
50% nonucccs&mef

40
200‐20Additional cumulative investmentsfrom 2005 to 2050

Akashi, O., Hanaoka, T., Masui, T. and Kainuma, M. (2013) Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on5nuclear and CCS, Climate Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584‐013‐0942

Expansion of Enduse[Global](Preparation for S‐12 project & EMF30, ect.)
One of the missing discussions is integrated analyses on ancillary benefits of reducing
air pollutants, short‐lived climate forces(SLCF), and ozone depleting substances(ODS),
combined with GHG mitigations, in the context of sustainable development.
PM2.5① CH4&BC are Short‐lived climate forcesSource) UNEP/WMO 2011

② N2O is Ozone depleting substanceSource) Ravishankara, et al, (2009)③ Air pollutants problems in ChinaSource) Lei et al (2011)

Objectives
1) Estimating technological mitigation potentials and costs of the Kyoto six
GHGs to reduce 50 % global GHG emissions by 2050 for achieving GHG
emission pathways consistent with the 2℃ target in the long term.
2) Assessing effects of ancillary benefits of reducing air pollutants, SLCF, ODS by
6achieving the 2℃ target, and analyzing its attribution by sector and region

Ongoing Development of Enduse[Global]
TermRegions
Time horizonSectors

Contents
World 32 regions2005 – 2050
Energy end‐use: Industry, Residential, Service,Transport, Other
Energy supply: Power generation, Heatgeneration, Coal transformation, Oilrefinery, Gas transformation, Fuel mining
Non‐energy: Agriculture, Waste, Fluorocarbons

CO2 CH4 N2O HFC PFC SF6 CFC HCFC SO2 NOx BC OC PM10 PM2.5 CO NH3 NMV
Fuelcombustion
Industrial
process
Agriculture
Waste
Fuel miningOthers✔

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✔： Updated✔

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✻ ✻ ✻✻✻✻✻✻ ✻ ✻✻✻✻✻Today’s topic✻✻：On-going updating

Emission factors are set by energy source, by sector and by region

7CO2 emissions in Baseline scenario‐ from fuel combustion and industry ‐60
World

2530

25Asia20151510105501970 1990 2010 2030 2050

01970 1990 2010 2030 2050

01970 1990 2010 2030 2050

146

1.4

10

12

EDGER4.2
AIM/Enduse

China

India

106
4

1.0

4
GtCO28

1.2

5

3
2

GtCO2

20

GtCO2Annex I

20
GtCO2GtCO24030

GtCO2

50

30

0.8
0.6

Japan

0.4

2

1

0.201970 1990 2010 2030 2050

01970 1990 2010 2030 2050

0.01970 1990 2010 2030 2050
8SO2 & NOx emissions in Baseline

300

World200

MtSO2SO2

MtSO225015010050

EDGER4.2
AIM/Enduse

01970 1990 2010 2030 2050

100

300
250WorldMtNOx

MtNOx

15010050EDGER4.2

AIM/Enduse01970 1990 2010 2030 2050

200
Asia
1801601401201008060402001970 1990 2010 2030 2050
100Annex I200

NOx

200
Annex I
180160
140
120
100
80
6040
Gap
2001970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Asia

80

80

60

60

40

MtNOx

350

MtSO2‐ from fuel combustion and industry ‐

Gap

40

202001970 1990 2010 2030 2050

01970 1990 2010 2030 2050

This study focuses on Asia 9Mitigation scenario for achieving 2℃ target‐ carbon price settings ‐The current useful references of carbon pricing such as: EU‐ETS carbon prices fluctuated due to global economic change, and varied
around 15‐30 EURO/tCO2.
 The price of CER for CDM projects also fluctuated around 10‐20 EURO/tCO2.
 Due to the economic recession, the carbon price has been on the decrease,around 5 EURO/tCO2.
 IEA (2010) reported carbon price is at 175 US$/tCO2 in the 450 ppmv scenario.
Future global economy‐wide carbon prices scenarios (US$/tCO2)
Scenario name
Baseline
T50S
T100S
T200S
T200L
T400S
T400L201303.75
7.5
15153030

2020
012.5
255050100100

2030
02550
100
100
200
200

2040
0
37.5
75
150
150300
300

2050
050
100
200
200
400
400

Payback time
Short
Short
Short
Short
Long
Short
Long
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Global GHG emissions pathways
and comparison with 2 ℃ target pathways
The global GHG emissions pathways by AIM/Enduse[Global] are compared withthe emissions pathways consistent with the 2℃ target scenarios.
 Transitions toward the 2℃ target are not in line with the current trend.
 It requires high carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2 in 2050 (T400S scenario),
which is necessary to consider various strategies to promote mitigation actions.
 But, in long payback case, even 200 US$/tCO2 in 2050 (T200L scenario) canachieve pathways of 2℃ target scenarios.
GHG emissions in the world (Gt CO2eq)80
Reference

70

T50S

60

T100S

50
40

T200S

30

T400S

20T200L

10T400L

02℃(Median)2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502℃(20th ‐80th % range)Note) Emissions pathways consistent with 2℃ target scenarios with a likely probability (greater than 66%)
11Sources are Rogelj, J. et al., (2011), UNEP The Emission Gap Report (2012)

SO2 & NOx emissions pathways in Asia

‐ Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies‐In order to focus on cobenefits of reducing air pollutants by introducing GHG
mitigation measures, air pollutant removal devices are not consideredIn T400S scenario, SO2 and NOx emissions in Asia will be decreased largely
as cobenefits of achieving the GHG emissions pathways of 2℃ target
scenarios.
T50S

T100S

T200S

180160
140
120
100
8060
40
2002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

T400SNOx emissions in Asia (Mt NOx)

SO2 emissions in Asia (Mt SO2)

ReferenceT200L

T400L2℃(Median)

10090807060504030201002005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Showing such cobenefits may help to overcome various barriers for achieving LCS? 12

SO2 & NOx emissions reduction ratio‐ Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies‐ In T400S scenario, SO2 emissions in Asia in 2050 are largely reduced At 136.4 Mt SO2 which correspond to 89% reductions from baseline.
(at 58.6 Mt SO2 which correspond to 77% reductions from the levels in 2005.)
 In T400S scenario, NOx emissions in Asia in 2050 are largely reduced at 57.8 Mt SO2 which correspond to 63% reductions from baseline.
(at 2.0 Mt SO2 which correspond to 5% reductions from the levels in 2005.)
T50S

T100S

T200S

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0%‐10%‐20%‐30%‐40%‐50%‐60%‐70%
‐80%
‐90%
‐100%

T400S

NOx emissions reductions ratioin Asia (% from reference)SO2 emissions reductions ratioin Asia (% from reference)

ReferenceT200L

T400L

2℃(Median)2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
0%‐10%‐20%‐30%‐40%
‐50%
‐60%
‐70%‐‐80%‐90%
100%

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Sectoral SO2 & NOx emissions in Asia

‐ Cobenefits of implementing CO2 mitigation policies‐ Large amounts of SO2 are emitted from the energy supply sector. Thus, theshifting from high‐carbon fossil fuels to less‐carbon intensive fuels or renewables
energies largely contributes to reduce SO2 emissions as well as GHGs emissions .
 NOx are mainly emitted from energy supply, industry and transport sectors. The
shift from vehicle with gasoline or diesel to efficient vehicles such as hybrid vehicle
and electric vehicle will occur; however, there are certain economic barriers tointroduction of such efficient vehicles even in the high carbon tax scenario in Asia.
Reference
T100S
T400S

Industry
Industry
Industry

Transport
Transport
Transport

Residential & Commercial
Residential & Commercial
Residential & Commercial
45NOx emissions in Asia (Mt NOx)

120

SO2 emissions in Asia (Mt SO2)

Energy supply
Energy supply
Energy supply

10080604020040353025201510502005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Sectoral SO2 emissions

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Sectoral NOx emissions

14Conclusion Mitigation measures of energy efficiency improvement on thedemand side and the shift to less‐or non‐carbon energies on the
supply side play important roles in reducing CO2 emissions as well as
increasing cobenefits of SO2 and NOx emissions reductions.
 400 US$/tCO2 carbon tax scenario can achieve pathways in the rangeof 2℃ target scenarios and global emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx arelargely reduced around 60‐90% compared to baseline in 2050.
 Energy shift in energy supply sector largely contribute to reducing
GHGs as well as SO2 in Asia. However, NOx are derived from transport
as well as energy supply, and there are limitations to shifting from fuelvehicles to Hybrid, plug‐in Hybrid, electric vehicles in developingcountries.
 One caveat is that, to focus on cobenefits of reducing air pollutants byintroducing GHG mitigation measures, air pollutant removal devices
are not considered.

15