Updating mitigation scenarios for
HCMC’s CCAP
Yuki Ochi, Tran Thanh Tu, Dao Canh Tung, Nguyen Tung Lam
SPI‐NAMA AIM teamThe 25th AIM International WorkshopTsukuba, 18‐19 Nov. 2019

Background
JICA SPI‐NAMA project:• Technical works to support
implementation of mitigation
policy taking HCMC as thepilot site;• Response to HCMC’s needs
for preparation for futurenational guidance: Updating
the CCAP with quantitative
mitigation targets and MRV‐able actions;

Source: https://qhkt.hochiminhcity.gov.vn/

Framework Setting•

2016 is suitable for the base year because of data availability.

•2030 is the target year corresponding to INDC.

•Start with energy‐related CO2.

Base year

2016

Target year

2030

Target GHG

CO2Target activities

Energy related activity
Industry, Transport, Commercial, Residential
BaU (Business as Usual) Scenario- Socioeconomic development based on future plan of the region

No. of scenarios- Without implementation of LCS policy in future
LCS Scenario- Same socioeconomic development as BaU scenario- With implementation of LCS policy in future3

Data Preparation
Two kinds of data on current status and future projection are needed.
Data for estimating current status

Information for future projection

 Population
 No. of household Input‐Output (IO) table Transport volume (Passenger & Freight)
 Energy balance table (demand & supply) Population projection
 No. of persons per household
It is expected that household size becomes smallerin parallel with economic growth Economic growth projection/target Transport planning

It is difficult to collect all data in many cases,
especially an IO table and an energybalance table.
We can estimate the data based onavailable information.
Reference source- Statistics of the region and nation(No. of trips, Modal share) Change in energy service*1 demand
It is expected that energy service demand perdriving force*2 increases depending on economicgrowth.
For example, people will use more electric devices
if their incomes are increased.

 Energy mix in electric power supply(Statistical yearbook, SNA, etc.)- Information from line departments- Previous research- Report from international organization(e.g. IEA World Energy Balance)*1 Energy service:
Services supplied by energy use(Air conditioner supplies cooling/heating service)

Reference source- Masterplans, strategies, targets of theregion and nation- Trend of similar cities and nations*2 Driving force:
Socio‐economic factors originating energy service demand(Usage of air conditioner increases as No. of households increase)4

Procedure for Estimating HCMC IO Table
Vietnam IO table in 2012
Vietnammacro‐economic information in 2016

Input coefficientComposition of final demand

Reconciliation by
Cross‐entropy Method

Value added by kind of economic activities
Gross outputs by kind of economic activitiesExpenditure on GDP by type of expenditures

Vietnam IO table in 2016
HCMC Macro‐economic information in 2016
Input coefficientComposition of final demand
Export/Import ratio

HCMC and Rest of Vietnam
Tentative IO tables in 2016–––

Value added by kind of economic activities
Gross outputs by kind of economic activities
Expenditure on GDP by type of expenditures

Location Quotient Method(without domestic trade)

Reconciliation by
Cross‐entropy Method

HCMC IO table in 2016

Trade matrix in 2016
between HCMC and Rest of Vietnam

Rest of Vietnam IO table in 20165

Procedure for Estimating HCMC Energy Balance•Final consumption part of the energy balance table for HCMC is estimatedbased on the energy balance table for whole Vietnam.

•Regarding sectors and energy type where we cannot collect any energy
consumption data for HCMC, we estimate them by downscaling of thenational energy balance table.

•Ratios of Socio‐economic information such as population, gross output
and traffic volume between HCMC and Vietnam are used to downscaling.

Energy balance tablefor Vietnam in 2016

Energy datafor HCMC in 2016Energy consumption by sector/energy type

Electric power consumption
Oil consumption

Socio‐economic informationfor HCMC in 2016
Population (Residential)
No. of employee (Commercial)
Gross outputs (Industry)
Traffic volume (Transport)

etc.
Use unique data if available

Energy balance tablefor HCMC in 2016
Downscaling

6

CO2 Emissions in 2030
•If there are no low carbon measures in the BaU scenario, CO2 emission in 2030 will become
2.7 times as large as that in 2016.

•In the LCS scenario, CO2 emission can be reduced by 21% compared with the BaU scenario
through both HCMC’s actions and improvement of national grid electricity.
NDC of Vietnam: By 2030 Viet Nam will reduce GHG emissions by 8% compared to BAU. The
contribution could be increased to 25% if international support is received.

Estimated CO2 Emissions

160,000

142,169

140,000

CO2 emissions [ktCO2]–Projects in HCMC
Improvement ofgrid electricity

120,000

2.74
times

100,000

21%

112,51780,00060,00051,84340,00020,00002016
Industry

2030BaU
Commercial

Residential

2030LCSTransport

7CO2 Emission Reduction Potential
Low Carbon Actions and Their Reduction Potentials
Industry
Action 1. Green Energy
Deployment of renewable electricity
Action 2. Sustainable Economy
Diffusion of low-energy offices and efficient factories
Action 3. Smart & Eco-friendly Lifestyle
Promotion of low-energy home and appliance
Action 4. Clean & Smart Transport
Energy efficient vehicle and modal shift
Total of Action by HCMC
Improvement of CO2 emission factor of electricity
Change of energy mix and reduction of transmission loss
Total

Commercial

Residential Transport

8146

10,026460

21Total148
10,485

614

614
3,516

3,516

10,107506

635

3,51614,764

12,504

398

1,747

239

14,88822,610

904

2,382

3,755

29,6528

Projects and their Emission Reduction
Emission
Action1 Green Energy

Project

Sectorreduction(ktCO2eq)
15.7

1-01

Introduction of photovoltaic power generation (Buildings)

Commercial

1-02

Introduction of photovoltaic power generation (Factories)

Industry

37.7

1-03

Introduction of photovoltaic power generation (Households)

Residential

9.4

1-04

Introduction of Wind Power Generation

Commercial

4.1

1-05

Introduction of Small-scale Hydropower Generation (at water distribution stations, canals)

Commercial

0.5

1-06

Introduction of Solar Water Heater (Buildings)

Commercial

34.2

1-07

Introduction of Solar Water Heater (Households)

Residential

46.4

Total
2 Sustainable Economy

2-01
2-02

Energy saving support scheme such as ESCO (Energy Saving COmpany) project for industries
Energy saving support scheme such as ESCO (Energy Saving COmpany) project for commercial

2-03

buildings
Introduction of low carbon furnaces

2-04

148.0
Industry
Commercial

4,967.9
77.8

Industry

3,688.4

Introduction of energy efficient boilers

Industry

503.2

2-05

Introduction of energy efficient motors

Industry

815.3

2-06

Waste Heat Recovery in Factories

Industry

198.0

2-07

Installation of High Efficiency Lighting in Buildings

Commercial

48.5

2-08

Installation of High Efficiency Air Conditioner in Buildings

Commercial

35.7

2-09

Installation of Heat Pump Water Heater in Buildings

Commercial

61.1

2-10

Introduction of Building Energy Efficiency Standards

Commercial

30.0

2-11

Implementation of Energy Management in Buildings

Commercial

31.6

2-12

Promotion of Energy Saving Behaviours in Workplaces

Commercial

27.8

Total

10,485.3

9

Projects and their Emission Reduction
Emission
Action3 Smart & Eco-friendly LifestyleProjectSector(ktCO2eq)

3-01Introduction of New Housing Energy Efficiency Standards

Residential

3-02

Installation of Heat Pump Water Heater in Households

Residential

23.1

3-03

Installation of High Efficiency Lighting in Households

Residential

65.0

3-04

Installation of High Efficiency Air Conditioners in Households

Residential

114.8

3-05

Promotion of Energy-efficient Appliances

Residential

230.8

3-06

Implementation of Energy Management in households

Residential

95.7

3-07

Enlightenment of Energy Conservation in Households

Residential

52.6

Total
4 Clean & Smart Transport

reduction
32.5

614.5

4-01

Promotion of Electric Vehicle

Transport

313.64-02

Promotion of Energy-efficient Vehicles (Passenger & Commercial Vehicles)

Transport

274.9

4-03

Introduction of Electric Motorbikes

Transport

179.8

4-04

Promotion of Energy-efficient Vehicles (Motorbikes)

Transport

81.5

4-05

Promotion of Energy-efficient Vehicles (Trucks)

Transport

1,962.3

4-06

Promotion of Eco-Driving with Digital Tachographs

Transport

247.7

4-07

Introduction of CNG bus

Transport

53.2

4-08

Introduction of EV bus

Transport

65.6

4-09

Promotion of Traffic Flow Management

Transport

24.3

4-10

Expansion of Frequencies and Routes of Bus Transportation

Transport

121.3

4-11

Development of MRTTransport

192.2

Total

3,516.3

Improvement of CO2 emission factor of electricity

14,888.2

Total

29,652.4

10

Refinement of the Scenario
This is a tentative result. There are rooms to refine!
1.

Improve base year data
Tentative Scenario

2.

•

Original energy consumption data
was not used.

•Energy consumption in 2016 wasestimated by downscaling ofnational energy data.

Improved Scenario•

It is preferable that the local energy
data which used for calculating theinventory.

•Scenario will describe more real
HCMC situation.

•It doesn’t describe actual situation ofenergy usage in HCMC.

•It will be easy to discuss focal points
to reduce CO2 emissions.

•CO2 emission in 2016 is notconsistent with the inventory ofHCMC.

•CO2 emission in 2016 will beconsistent with the inventory.

Reflect HCMC targets, visions, plans and projects– We used general countermeasures and projects for estimating CO2 emission
reduction in the LCS scenario.
– It can be more useful if actual targets, visions, plans and projects related
mitigation are reflected to the scenario.
11Difference between AIM scenario & Inventory 2016
• Coverage in stationary energy– AIM tentative scenario includes scope 1 & 2.
– HCMC Inventory includes scope 2 & 3 emission.

• Value of scope 2 emission in stationary energy– The reason of the difference is used data: In AIM tentative
scenario, energy consumption was estimated from national data.
Scope 2 CO2 emissions in stationary energy
Unit: ktCO2HCMC
InventoryAIM
Tentative Result

Residential

7,944

2,433

Commercial

4,519

407

Industry

11,131

14,908810

1724,404

17,766

Agriculture, forestry and fishingTOTAL

Further work requirements•••••

Updating NDC
Update CCAP of other cities toward the new SEDP 2030
Roadmap of mitigation countermeasures implementation
Socio economic impacts assessment of CCAP
Capacity buildingThank you very much for your attention!