気候変動予測先端研究プログラム

SENTAN Webinar #1
2022/12/18

Advanced Study of Climate Change Projection (SENTAN)

Introduction of Japan's National
Climate Program (SENTAN Program)
Nobuhito Mori
PI of SENTAN Program Theme 4 by MEXT, Japan
Vice-Director, Professor
Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI)
Kyoto University
Theme 4 Development of integrated hazard model1|

Projection of extremes is importantin Asian hazard assessment

2|

IPCC AR6 WGI

2

But… Extreme hazard projection is limited

3|Haiyan 2013

Pam 2015

Winston 2016

Jebi 2018

Quantify the Hazard Risks
Potentialrisk changeHazard• Frequency• IntensityVulnerability• Protection• Planning
• NbS

4|

Society• Economics• Population• sea-level rise
• precipitation• river flooding• coastalflooding• waterresources• heatwave

Global to local climate risk
GlobalTyphoons, Extra-TCs
Sea level rise

Asia/Pacific

Heavy precipitation
Storm surges
Water resources

River and coastal flooding
NationalHazard Risk

Local
5|

SENTAN Program2022-2026
Japan’s National Climate Research Program by MEXT

1.
2.
3.
4.

Theme 1 AORI, U Tokyo
Theme 2 JAMSTEC
Theme 3 MRITheme 4 DPRI, Kyoto

Cooperative working groups (WGs)–7|EA, AI, land model, SLR, wildfire, JAXA and international cooperation

WatanabeKawamiya
TakayabuMori

Major CIDs

SENTAN Program andClimatic Impact Drivers (CIDs) in AR6 WGITheme 1 and 2
Global climate
projection andmechanisms•Radiative forcing andfeedback•Natural variability•Extremes

Temp

Theme 4
Understanding CIDs
•Characteristics•Threshold value of CIDs withvulnerability

Vulnerability•infrastructure

Exposure•Population, asset

Theme 3
Regional CIDs
•Probability of extremes•Intensity and frequency of CIDs

Projection andtrend of CIDs
•Climate changeand extrems

Adapt
ati
on

Risk analysis•Risk curve

IPCC AR6 WGI Figure 12.1
8|

Targets

SENTANP4Goals

1. Integrated hazard model
2. Hazard to risk assessment
3. Making climate risk information
OutcomeA) IPCC AR7 and related Special ReportB) National report and datasetC) Collaboration with governmental
agencies and technical users

9|

SENTAN Program Theme 4: Outline
Theme
3Theme1 and 2

波浪

陸面河川

i.

強風

⚫ Prof. T. Sayama (Kyoto U)

バイアス補

高潮

正・極値
適応戦略

ii.

Hazard models

iii.
EventAttirbutioni.
Integratedmodel
日本・東アジア
シナリオベースiv. International
corporation

特定領域
Storyline

ii.
Hazardmechanisms
特定領域・緻密
シナリオベースv. Adaptation
strategies

iii.

PolicyContribution to science and society
10 |Hazard Event Attribution⚫ Prof. T. Takemi (Kyoto U)

iv.

International
cooperation⚫ Prof. Y. Tachikawa (Kyoto U)

気候変動
202X
DIAS

ScienceHazard mechanisms⚫ Prof. K. Tanaka (Kyoto U)⚫ Prof. M. Fujii (Hokkaido U)

Projections and knowledge

GlobalIntegrated hazard model
developmentv.

Adaptation strategy⚫ Prof. T. Fujimi (Kyoto U)

Group i: Integrated hazard model with GCM
Land side

Bias correction

Strong winds

Leader
T. Sayama
DPRI, Kyoto U

offlinemodel

Land surface

Ocean wave

MRI-AGCM

full coupling

Theme 3
Storm surge
TSE-C

RunoffRiverine
Inundation

11 |oneway Earth Simulator
coupling

Sub-theme iv：International cooperation for hazard andrisk assessments in the Asia-Pacific region
Leader: Yasuto Tachikawa (Kyoto U)

Tropicalcyclone

Flood risk

Urban Climate

Water resources
Coastalflood risk

14 |Theme 4: Scale and scenarioSociety change

Approach
Probabilistic SSP
approachscenario
FuturePresenti. Integrated
modelii. Hazardmechanism

iv. International
cooperation

Pre-Industrial

Maximum
scenariov. Adaptation
strategyiii. Hazard EAPGW

PGW
EA

Scale
AsiaPacific
15 |Nation

RegionDeveloping impact assessment model
Making projection (with theme 3)1616 |

Large Ensemble Projection: d4PDF
ModelExp. Configuration

MRI-AGCM

x=60km res.

Downscaling to EA

MRI-NHRCM
x=20km res.

17 |• One ensemble• 60yrs• Initial perturbation• 100 for historical/Nat.
• 15 for future• Future climate• Global mean temp. +2K, +4K• SST/Sea ice100• Historical• COBE2-SSTNatural(6000yrs)• Future• SSTs from CMIP5

Mizuta et al. (2017) BAMS

SSTs

15

MRI-CG

15

MPI-ES

15

MIROC

15

HadGE

15 GFDL-C

CCSM410015

NAT
Historicaldi-trend(6000yrs)(6000yrs)+4K/+2K(5400yrs)

Ishii and Mori (2020) PEPS

d4PDF
example18 |Large ensemble can reduce uncertainty

19 |Ishii and Mori (2020) PEPS

Pesudo Global Warming Exp. : TC2019#19 (Hagibis)
Control

Non GW+2K+4K

Precipitation[mm]radial distance from TC center [km]上段：11日00UTC－13日00UTCで平均した台風中心周辺の1時間降水量下段：同期間で平均した1時間降水量の動径プロファイル
20 |Fujiwara (DPRI, Kyoto U)

River flood modeling: Nepal case
ネパールBagmati川流域（首都カトマンズ含む）を流出モデルHEC-HMSでモデル化し流量の推定をする（ポカラ大学）．
HEC-HMSはネパールでDefacto standardに近いため，現地の河川計画にそのまま反映できる可能性があると考えている．

21 |Katmandu, Nepal

小林（神戸大学），Mishra（ネパール・ポカラ大学），鈴木（アジア防災センター）

Total Water Level/Extreme Sea Level Projection
Wave run up
O(1m)

TWL
Wave set up
O(10m)

Storm surge O(100m)

ESL
Astronomical Tide O(1km)

TC induced
sea level change

Mean sea levelO(100km)
Can be affected by climate change

22 |Heat Island in Southeast Asia
1-km land use（MODIS）
東チモール◼ マスター
Bankok テキストの書式設定
ハノイ

BruneyLand-surface-model-base DS
Ground temperature
ブルネイ

バンコク

東チモール

⚫ 第 2 レベル• 第 3 レベル– 第 4 レベル
ジャカルタ

クアラルンプール

プノンペン

シンガポール

23 |マニラ» 第 5 レベル

ドアン・日下（筑波大）

ビエンチャン

ネピド

ジャカルタ

プノンペン

クアラルンプール

シンガポールマニラ

ビエンチャンハノイ

ネピド

Summary⚫Impact assessment for extremes will bedramatically improved in SENTAN program.
⚫Targets for the next 5 years– Multi-hazard assessment– Risk assessment– Maximum class assessment– Close linkage with adaptation measures⚫Impact assessment for Asia and the Pacific areas– IPCC does not care individual country– Need for international cooperation

25 |Thank you for listening
and willing to collaboration

26 |