人工知能学会第二種研究資料
ビジネス・インフォマティクス研究会
SIG-BI BI-019-02σʔλϚΠχϯά๏Λ༻͍ͨෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ख๏ͷ‫ݕ‬౼Study of accounting fraud detection using a data-mining approachখാਸ߂ 1 ࡉඌ஧‫ ܟ‬1 ૔‫ڮ‬અ໵ 1
Takahiro Obata
Tadataka Hosoo1
Setsuya Kurahashi1111ஜ೾େֶେֶӃϏδωεՊֶ‫ڀݚ‬ՊGraduate School of Business Sciences, University of Tsukuba

Abstract: ຊ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ɼσʔλϚΠχϯά๏ʢDM ๏ʣΛ‫ͨ͠༻׆‬ෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ख๏ͷ෼ੳ݁Ռʹ͍ͭͯใࠂ͢ΔɽDM ๏ͱ͸ɼ‫ࣜג‬ϑΝΫλʔ‫ۙͰڀݚ‬೥ఏҊ͞Εͨख๏Ͱɼ‫ࢉܭ‬ՄೳͳϑΝΫλʔΛ໢ཏతʹ෼ੳ͢Δ͜ͱͰैདྷ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸஫໨͞Εͯ͜ͳ͔͕ͬͨ༗ޮͳϑΝΫλʔΛ‫ݟ‬ग़ͦ͏ͱ͢Δ΋ͷͰ͋ΔɽDM ๏Λ༻͍ͨϑΝΫλʔͷ‫͔ূݕ‬Βෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌Ϟσϧߏஙɼ༧ଌ݁Ռ·ͰΛใࠂ͢Δɽ1͸͡Ίʹ্৔‫ʹۀا‬ΑΔෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬։ࣔ݅਺͸೥ʑ૿Ճ܏޲ʹ͋Γɼେ͖ͳࣾձ໰୊ͱͳ͍ͬͯΔɽෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬ͷൃ֮͸‫ג‬Ձͷ‫ٸ‬མ΍‫ܦ‬Ӧഁ୼ͱ͍ͬͨॏେͳ‫ۀا‬Ձ஋ͷ‫غ‬ଛΛҾ͖‫͕ͱ͜͢͜ى‬஌ΒΕ͓ͯΓɼෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬ͷ‫ڪ‬Ε͕͋Δ‫ۀا‬Λ‫ݕ‬஌͠Α͏ͱ͢Δ‫͕ڀݚ‬੝ΜʹߦΘΕ͍ͯΔɽຊ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ɼෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ϞσϧͷΠϯϓοτσʔλͱͯ͠༻͍Δࡒ຿γάφϧͷ‫ʹূݕ‬ɼσʔλϚΠχϯά๏Λ༻͍ΔɽσʔλϚΠχϯά๏͸ɼۙ೥ɼ‫ࣜג‬ϑΝΫλʔ‫ڀݚ‬ͷख๏ͱͯ͠ Yan/Zheng[1] ͕ఏҊͨ͠΋ͷͰ͋Γɼಛఆͷࡒ຿γάφϧʹߜͬͯ෼ੳ͢ΔͷͰ͸ͳ͘ɼ෼ੳՄೳͳࡒ຿γάφϧΛ໢ཏతʹ෼ੳ͢Δ͜ͱͰ‫ऀڀݚ‬ͷࢥ͍ࠐΈΛഉআ͠ɺ৽ͨͳ஌‫ݟ‬ΛಘΑ͏ͱ͢Δૂ͍͕Ͱ͋Δɽෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌‫ڀݚ‬ͷ୅දతͳઌߦ‫Ͱڀݚ‬΋ɺ‫͕ऀڀݚ‬Ұ෦ͷࡒ຿σʔλ౳͔Β࡞੒ͨ͠γάφϧΛ‫͓ͯ͠༻׆‬Γɼ‫͞༻׆‬Ε͍ͯΔγάφϧ΍ࡒ຿σʔλҎ֎ʹ΋༗ޮͳσʔλ͕જΜͰ͍ΔՄೳੑ͸১͑ͳ͍ɽͦ͜Ͱɼຊ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸·ͣσʔλϚΠχϯά๏ʹΑΓෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ʹ༗ޮͱߟ͑ΒΕͨࡒ຿γάφϧΛ໢ཏతʹ‫͢ূݕ‬Δɽ͞Βʹ༗ޮͳࡒ຿γάφϧͷΞ΢τϓοτΛ‫ͨ͠༻׆‬ෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌Ϟσϧߏங͠ɼෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ਫ਼౓ͷ޲্Λ໨ࢦ͢ɽຊߘͷߏ੒͸࣍ͷ௨ΓͰ͋ΔɽSection 2 Ͱɼؔ࿈‫ݚ‬‫ͯ͠ͱڀ‬ෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ͷ୅දతϞσϧ΍σʔλϚΠχϯά๏ʹུ͍ͭͯ֓͢ΔɽSection 3 ͸ຊ‫ڀݚ‬ͷ෼ੳσʔλʹ͍ͭͯͷઆ໌Ͱ͋ΔɽSection 4 ͸σʔλϚΠχϯά๏ʹΑΔࡒ຿γάφϧͷ‫ূݕ‬ɼSection 5 ͸ෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬‫ݕ‬஌ϞσϧʹΑΔ༧ଌ݁Ռʹ͍ͭͯใࠂ͢ΔɼSection
6 ͸·ͱΊͰ͋Δɽ

2ؔ࿈‫ڀݚ‬2.1ෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ͷ୅දతख๏ͱͯ͠ Beneish[2] ͕ఏএͨ͠ M-Score ΍ Dechow et al[3] ʹΑΔ F-Score ͕͋ΔɽͲͪΒͷख๏΋ถࠃ‫ʹۀا‬ର͢Δ෼ੳΛ‫ߏʹج‬ங͞Εͨ΋ͷͰɼա‫ڈ‬ͷ࣮ূ‫Ͳͳڀݚ‬Λࢀߟʹෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬‫ݕ‬஌ʹ༗ޮͱࢥΘΕΔࡒ຿γάφϧΛෳ਺४උ͠ɺͦ
ΕΒͷࡒ຿γάφϧͷઢ‫ܗ‬࿨Λ༻͍ͯෆਖ਼ͷ֬཰Λਪ‫͢ܭ‬ΔΞϓϩʔνΛऔ͍ͬͯΔɽԼ‫ه‬͸ F-score ͷࢉग़ํ๏Ͱ͋Δɽ

F score =P robability =P redictedV alue =P robability
(1)
0.004
exp(P redictedV alue)(2)
1 + exp(P redictedV alue)−7.893 + 0.790rsstqcc(3)+2.518chrec + 1.191chinv+1.979sof tasset + 0.171chcs−0.932chroa + 1.029issue͜͜Ͱ (1) ࣜͷ෼฼ͷ 0.004 ͸શαϯϓϧʹ͓͚Δෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬σʔλͷׂ߹Ͱ͋Γɼ(3) ࣜͷ֤ม਺͸ɼrsstqcc :ΞΫϧΞϧζ1 /૯ࢿ࢈‫ظ‬தฏ‫ۉ‬ɼchrec :ചֻ࠴‫ݖ‬ͷ૿‫ֹݮ‬/૯ࢿ࢈‫ظ‬தฏ‫ۉ‬ɼchinv :୨Էࢿ࢈ͷ૿‫ֹݮ‬/૯ࢿ࢈‫ظ‬தฏ‫ۉ‬ɼsof tasset :ʢ૯ࢿ࢈-ঈ٫ର৅༗‫ݻܗ‬ఆࢿ࢈-‫ݱ‬༬ۚʣ/૯ࢿ࢈ɼchcs :ച্ߴ-ചֻ࠴‫ݖ‬ͷ૿‫ֹݮ‬ɼchroa : ROA ͷ૿‫ݮ‬ɼissue:৽‫ۚࢿن‬ௐୡͷ༗ແʹؔ͢
1 ΞΫϧΞϧζ͸‫ۚݱ‬ऩೖΛ൐͏࣭ͷߴ͍རӹ͔Ͳ͏͔Λ‫ۃݟ‬Ί
ΔͨΊʹ༻͍ΒΕΔࢦඪͰɼಛผଛӹΛআ͍ͨ੫Ҿ͖‫ޙ‬རӹ͔ΒӦ‫ۀ‬ΩϟογϡϑϩʔΛҾ͍ͯࢉग़͢ΔɽΞΫϧΞϧζͷ஋͕খ͍͞ɼ·ͨ͸ϚΠφεͷ‫ۀا‬ͷརӹ͸‫ۚݱ‬ऩೖʹཪ෇͚ΒΕ࣭ͨͷߴ͍རӹͱ͍͑ΔɽΔμϛʔม਺ɼͰ͋Δɽࠃ಺ʹ͓͍ͯ΋ෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌‫ڀݚ‬͸੝ΜʹߦΘΕ͓ͯΓɼۙ೥ͷ‫ͯ͠ͱڀݚ‬͸౦ւ
ྛ [4] ͕͋Δɽ౦ւྛͷ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ɼෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬σʔλʹ͸ࡒ຿σʔλؒͷ࿪Έ͕ଘࡏ͢Δͱ͍͏‫࣮ࠪ؂‬຿ͷ஌‫ݟ‬Λ൓ө͢ΔͨΊɼࡒ຿σʔλؒͷ‫ڞ‬෼ࢄͱϚϋϥϊϏε‫཭ڑ‬Λ‫ͯ͠༻׆‬Ճ޻ͨ͠ΠϯϓοτσʔλΛ༻͍ͯෆਖ਼‫ݕ‬஌༧ଌΛߦ͍ͬͯΔɽ

2.2σʔλϚΠχϯά๏σʔλϚΠχϯά๏ʢDM ๏ʣ͸ɼલड़ͷ Yan/ZhengΒ͕‫ࣜג‬ϑΝΫλʔ‫ڀݚ‬ͷதͰ༻͍ͨํ๏Ͱɼ‫ऀڀݚ‬ͷ༧‫ݟ‬ΛͰ͖Δ͚ͩഉআͯ͠٬‫؍‬తɾ໢ཏతʹ༗ҙͳࡒ຿γάφϧΛ୳ࡧ͢Δ͜ͱΛ໨తͱ͍ͯ͠Δɽࠃ಺‫ג‬ࣜࢢ৔ʹ͓͍ͯࢁా/‫ޙ‬౻ [5] ͕ DM ๏Λ༻͍ͯ෼ੳΛߦ͍ɼ͜Ε·Ͱ͋·Γ஫໨͞Εͯ͜ͳ͔ͬͨ‫ۚݱ‬΍ਓ݅අؔ࿈ɺࢧ෷͍ۚརͷมԽͱ͍ͬͨࡒ຿ϑΝΫλʔͷ༗ޮੑΛ֬ೝͨ͠ͱใࠂ͍ͯ͠ΔɽDM ๏ʹ͍ͭͯ͸ͦͷޮ༻ͷҰํͰ DM ๏Ͱൃ‫͞ݟ‬Εͨ੒Ռ͕ɼաద߹΍ِൃ‫͚͔ͤݟ͍ͨͬͱݟ‬ͷύλʔϯൃ‫ʹݟ‬ա͗ͳ͍ՄೳੑͳͲͷ‫ݒ‬೦఺΋ࢦఠ͞Ε͍ͯΔɽ͔͠͠ɼաద߹΍ِൃ‫ݟ‬ͷଟ͘͸ɼ‫ऀڀݚ‬ଆ͕ዞҙతʹ‫ڀݚ‬σβΠϯΛઃఆͰ͖Δ͜ͱʹ‫ى‬Ҽ͢Δ໘͕͋Δͱߟ͑ΒΕΔ͜ͱ͔Βɼ෼ੳ݁ՌͷҰ෦ͷΈΛఏ͍ࣔͯ͠Δ͜ͱΛ‫ݒ‬೦͞ΕΔΑΓ΋໢ཏతʹ‫ূݕ‬Λߦ͍݁ՌΛఏࣔ͢
Δ DM ๏ͷҙٛ͸খ͘͞ͳ͍ͱߟ͑Β͑Δɽ

3෼ੳσʔλຊ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ࠃ಺্৔‫ۀا‬ͷ 2008 ೥ 3 ݄‫͔ظ‬Β 2018
೥ 3 ݄‫Ͱ·ظ‬ͷܾࢉ‫ͨ͋ʹؒظ‬Δຊܾࢉ͓Αͼ࢛൒‫ظ‬ܾࢉΛ෼ੳର৅ͱͨ͠ɽୠ͠ɼઌߦ‫ʹڀݚ‬฿͍ɼҰൠతͳ‫ۀا‬ͷࢿۚௐୡख๏ɼࡒ຿ߏ଄΍ऩӹߏ଄͕େ͖͘ҟͳΔۜߦ‫Ͳͳۀ‬Ұ෦ͷ‫ۀ‬छΛআ֎͍ͯ͠Δɽ‫ڀݚ‬ͷͨΊʹ͸ෆਖ਼ͷͳ͍ܾࢉσʔλʢҎ‫ޙ‬ɼਖ਼ৗσʔλͱ‫Ϳݺ‬ʣͱෆਖ਼͕ߦΘΕ͍ͯΔܾࢉσʔλʢҎ‫ޙ‬ɼෆਖ਼σʔλͱ‫Ϳݺ‬ʣ͕ඞཁʹͳΔɽਖ਼ৗσʔλ͸ෆਖ਼Λߦ͍ͬͯͳ͍‫ۀا‬ͷܾࢉσʔλͱෆਖ਼Λߦ͕ͬͨ‫ʹޙ‬గਖ਼ใࠂ͕ͳ͞ΕܾͨࢉσʔλͰߏ੒͞ΕΔɽਖ਼ৗσʔλ͸೔‫ ܦ‬Needs ࡒ຿σʔλ DVD ൛ʹΑΓऔಘ͠ɼσʔλൈ͚ͳͲ͕ΈΒΕͨ৔߹͸೔‫ܦ‬όϦϡʔαʔνʹΑΓิ‫ͨ͠׬‬ɽෆਖ਼σʔλʹ͍ͭͯ͸ɼূ݊औҾ౳‫ࢹ؂‬ҕһձʢSecurities and Exchange SurveillanceCommissionɼSESCʣͷ΢ΣϒαΠτͰެද͞Ε͍ͯΔࣄྫΛऩूͨ͠ɽ͞Βʹ্৔‫Ͱۀا‬ෆਖ਼ձ‫ߦ͕ܭ‬ΘΕͨ৔߹ʹ΄ͱΜͲͷ‫͕ۀا‬ௐࠪҕһձ΍ୈࡾऀҕһձΛઃஔͯ͠ௐࠪΛߦ͏͜ͱ͔Βɼ೔‫ܦ‬όϦϡʔαʔνͷΩʔϫʔυ‫ػࡧݕ‬ೳΛར༻ͯ͠’ ௐࠪҕһձ’ɼ’ ୈࡾऀҕһձ’ɼ’ ࣾ಺ௐࠪ’ɼ’ ಺෦ௐࠪ’ɼ’ ֎෦ௐࠪ’ɼ’ ֎ද 1: ‫ͱ਺ۀا‬Ԇ΂ܾࢉ‫਺ظ‬ਖ਼ৗσʔλ ෆਖ਼σʔλ‫਺ۀا‬3,655
141Ԇ΂ܾࢉ‫਺ظ‬132,5401,404෦ͷઐ໳Ո’ɼ’ ࣄ࣮͕൑໌’ɼ’ ௐࠪใࠂॻ’ ͷΩʔϫʔυநग़Λߦ͍ɼ։ࣔ಺༰ʹΑΓ‫ܦ‬Ӧ૚͓Αͼ‫ܦ‬Ӧʹ͍ۙ෦໳௕Ϩϕϧ͕ؔ༩͍ͯ͠Δͱ֬ೝͰ͖ͨࣄྫΛෆਖ਼σʔλͱͯ͠༻͍ͨɽද 1 ͸্‫ํه‬๏ʹΑΓऩूͨ͠෼ੳର৅σʔλͷ‫͓਺ۀا‬ΑͼԆ΂ܾࢉ‫਺ظ‬Λ·ͱΊͨ΋ͷͰ͋Δɽͳ͓ɼ֤ܾࢉ‫ظ‬σʔλʹ͓͚Δࡒ຿σʔλ߲໨਺͸໿ 1,200 ͕ͩɺશͯͷࡒ຿σʔλ߲໨ʹ਺஋͕ೖ͍ͬͯΔΘ͚Ͱ͸ͳۭ͘ཝʹͳ͍ͬͯΔ΋ͷ͕ଟ͍ɽ4DM ๏ʹΑΔෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ʹ༗ޮͳࡒ຿γάφϧͷ‫ূݕ‬લड़ͷ DM ๏Λ༻͍ͨઌߦ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ɼ‫ג‬ՁͷকདྷϦλʔϯʹର͢Δ֤ࡒ຿γάφϧͷ୯ճ‫਺܎ؼ‬ͷ༗ҙੑ‫ূݕ‬Λϕʔεʹ෼ੳΛߦ͍ͬͯΔ͕ɼຊ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ෆਖ਼ͷ༗ແΛ‫ࢣڭ‬σʔλɼ֤ࡒ຿γάφϧΛΠϯϓοτσʔλͱܾͨ͠ఆ໦ϞσϧΛߏங͠ɺͦͷਖ਼ղ཰ΛΈΔ͜ͱͰ֤ࡒ຿γάφϧͷ༗ޮੑΛଌΔ͜ͱͱͨ͠ɽܾఆ໦ϞσϧΛ࠾༻ͨ͠ͷ͸ɼ‫ࢣڭ‬σʔλ͕ෆਖ਼ͷ༗ແͷͨΊ୯ճ‫ؼ‬෼ੳ͕ͳ͡·ͳ͍͜ͱʹՃ͑ɼෆਖ਼Λߦͬͨ‫ۀا‬ͷࡒ຿γάφϧ஋͕྆୺ʹภ͍ͬͯΔέʔεʢ·ͨ͸ͦͷ‫ٯ‬ʣʹ΋ରԠͰ͖ΔΑ͏ʹ͢ΔͨΊͰ͋Δɽ͞Βʹɼ࠷ऴతͳෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬༧ଌϞσϧͰ͸Ϟσϧͷઆ໌ྗ͕‫ٻ‬ΊΒΕΔՄೳੑ΋͋Γɼͦͷ఺Ͱ༧ଌϞσϧͷΞ΢τϓοτʹࢸΔ൑அաఔΛͨͲΓқ͓ͯ͘͘͠఺΋ߟྀͨ͠ɽ۩ମతͳ‫ূݕ‬Ϟσϧͱͯ͠͸࠷େ෼‫਺ذ‬͕ 1ʙ4 ·Ͱͷ 4 छྨͷܾఆ໦ϞσϧͱɼରൺͷͨΊʹϩδεςΟοΫճ‫ؼ‬Ϟσϧʹ͍ͭͯ΋༧ଌਖ਼ղ཰Λ‫ܭ‬ଌͨ͠ɽΠϯϓοτσʔλͱͯ͠͸֤ࡒ຿߲໨ʹ͍ͭͯ 11 ௨Γͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛ‫ͨ͠ࢉܭ‬ɽࡒ຿γάφϧͷ‫ํࢉܭ‬๏ʹ͍ͭͯ͸ද 2 ʹ·ͱΊͨɽ࣍ʹ֤ࡒ຿γάφϧʹରԠ͢Δܾఆ໦Ϟσϧͷֶश͓ΑͼධՁσʔλ͕ͩɼશͯͷܾࢉ‫ظ‬σʔλΛ༻͍Δͱਖ਼ৗσʔλ਺ͱෆਖ਼σʔλ਺͕େ͖͘ภͬͯ͠·͍ɼͦ͏ͨ͠σʔλͰͷֶशͷ݁Ռɼ༧ଌ͕ෆਖ਼ͳ͠ͷΈʹͳΔ‫ڪ‬Ε͕͋Δɽ͜ͷ఺Λճආ͢ΔͨΊɼຊ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ෆਖ਼͋Γ‫ۀا‬ͷ૯਺ 141 ࣾͱಉ਺ͷෆਖ਼ͳ͠‫ۀا‬ΛϥϯμϜʹબ୒͢ΔΞϯμʔαϯϓϦϯάΛߦ͍ɼෆਖ਼͋Γ‫͓ۀا‬ΑͼΞϯμʔαϯϓϦϯάʹΑΓಘΒΕͨෆਖ਼ͳ͠‫ۀا‬ͷશͯͷܾࢉσʔλΛ༻͍ܾͯఆ໦Ϟද 2: ࡒ຿߲໨ x ʹؔ͢Δࡒ຿γάφϧͷ‫ํࢉܭ‬๏߲໨಺༰
෼฼ (y)૯ࢿ࢈, ࣗ‫ࢿݾ‬ຊ, ച্ߴਫ४‫ܕ‬γάφϧ
xt /ytલ‫ظ‬ൺมԽ෯‫ܕ‬γάφϧ(xt − xt−1 )/yt−1લ೥ൺมԽ෯‫ܕ‬γάφϧ(xt − xt−4 )/yt−4લ‫ظ‬ൺ੒௕‫ܕ‬γάφϧ(xt − xt−1 )/xt−1લ೥ൺ੒௕‫ܕ‬γάφϧ(xt − xt−4 )/xt−4ʢ஫ʣఴ͑ࣈ t ͸Ͳͷ‫ظ‬ͷσʔλ͔Λද͢ɽt-1 ͸1 ࢛൒‫ظ‬લɼt-4 ͸ 1 ೥લΛද͢ɽද 3: ܾఆ໦ʢ࠷େ෼‫ ਺ذ‬2ʣʹΑΔࡒ຿γάφϧਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ 10ਖ਼ղ཰ʢֶशʣ
ਖ਼ղ཰ʢtestʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗ ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
1ydiff eq
डऔ഑౰ۚ
98.8%
9.7%
98.5%
8.6%
2ta
‫܁‬Ԇ੫ۚࢿ࢈
98.7%
7.5%
98.7%
5.6%
3ta
༗‫ݻܗ‬ఆࢿ࢈ॲ෼ଛ
99.5%
5.3%
99.3%
4.5%
4sl
ͦͷଞࢿ࢈ॲ෼ଛ
99.4%
4.4%
99.3%
3.4%
5
ygrowth ಛผଛࣦ100.0%
3.6% 100.0%
3.3%
6
qgrowth ͦͷଞࢿ࢈ॲ෼ଛ
99.3%
5.5%
99.3%
2.9%
7
qgrowth ಛผଛࣦ100.0%
3.4% 100.0%
2.9%
8
ydiff sl‫ػ‬ց૷ஔ‫ͼٴ‬ӡൖ۩ 100.0%
0.5% 100.0%
2.9%9ygrowth ͦͷଞࢿ࢈ॲ෼ଛ
99.6%
4.3%
99.3%
2.8%
10 sl
ି౗Ҿ౰ۚ
100.0%
2.6% 100.0%
2.7%
ʢ஫ʣsignal ‫ܕ‬ͷ’ta’ ͸ਫ४‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼͕૯ࢿ࢈ɼ’eq’ ͸ਫ४‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼͕ࣗ‫ࢿݾ‬ຊɼ’sl’ ͸ਫ४‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼͕ച্ߴͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛද͢ɽqdiff **͸લ‫ظ‬ൺมԽ෯‫ܕ‬ɼydiff **͸લ೥ൺมԽ෯‫ܕ‬Λද͠ɼ**ͷ෦෼͸෼฼Λࣔ͢ʢਫ४‫ͱܕ‬ಉ͡‫߸ه‬ʣɽqgrowth ͸લ‫ظ‬ൺ੒௕‫ܕ‬ɼygrowth ͸લ೥ൺ੒௕‫ܕ‬Λද͢ɽNOsignal ‫ܕ‬෼ࢠͷࡒ຿߲໨

ද 4: ੾Γ‫ג‬ϞσϧʹΑΔࡒ຿γάφϧਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ 10ਖ਼ղ཰ʢֶशʣ
ਖ਼ղ཰ʢtestʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗ ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
1
ydiff eq
डऔ഑౰ۚ
98.9%
9.0%
98.7%
8.8%
2sl
ͦͷଞࢿ࢈ॲ෼ଛ
99.0%
6.6%
99.0%
6.3%3ygrowth ಛผଛࣦ100.0%
3.6% 100.0%
3.3%
4
qgrowth ಛผଛࣦ100.0%
3.4% 100.0%
2.9%
5sl
ି౗Ҿ౰ۚ
100.0%
2.6%
99.9%
2.7%
6
ygrowth ି౗Ҿ౰ۚ
99.9%
2.5%
99.9%
2.5%
7
qgrowth ି౗Ҿ౰ۚ
100.0%
2.5%
99.9%
2.4%
8taୀ৬‫܎ʹ෇څ‬Δෛ࠴
99.8%
2.5%
99.8%
2.4%
9sl
༗‫ݻܗ‬ఆࢿ࢈ॲ෼ଛ
99.5%
3.4%
99.3%
2.3%
10 ygrowth ͦͷଞࢿ࢈ॲ෼ଛ
99.2%
4.8%
98.9%
2.3%
ʢ஫ʣsignal ‫ܕ‬ͷ’ta’ ͸ਫ४‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼͕૯ࢿ࢈ɼ’eq’ ͸ਫ४‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼͕ࣗ‫ࢿݾ‬ຊɼ’sl’ ͸ਫ४‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼͕ച্ߴͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛද͢ɽqdiff **͸લ‫ظ‬ൺมԽ෯‫ܕ‬ɼydiff **͸લ೥ൺมԽ෯‫ܕ‬Λද͠ɼ**ͷ෦෼͸෼฼Λࣔ͢ʢਫ४‫ͱܕ‬ಉ͡‫߸ه‬ʣɽqgrowth ͸લ‫ظ‬ൺ੒௕‫ܕ‬ɼygrowth ͸લ೥ൺ੒௕‫ܕ‬Λද͢ɽNOਤ 1: ֶशσʔλͱςετσʔλͷ෼ׂσϧͷֶश͓ΑͼධՁΛ͢Δ͜ͱͱͨ͠ɽෆਖ਼͋Γ‫ا‬‫ۀ‬ͷશͯͷܾࢉσʔλͷதʹ͸ෆਖ਼͕ͳ͔ͬͨ‫ؒظ‬ͷσʔλ΋‫ؚ‬Ή͜ͱʹͳΔɽෆਖ਼͋Γ‫ۀا‬ͷԆ΂ܾࢉ‫ظ‬਺͸ 5,069 ‫ظ‬෼͋Γɼͦͷ͏ͪͷ 3,665 ‫ظ‬෼͸ෆਖ਼ͳ͠ͷਖ਼ৗσʔλɼ࢒Γͷ 1,404 ‫ظ‬෼͕ෆਖ਼σʔλͰ͋Δɽ͜ΕҎ߱Ͱ‫ࣔ͢ܝ‬Δࡒ຿γάφϧͷ‫݁ূݕ‬Ռ͸ɼ͋Δ
Ұ౓ͷΞϯμʔαϯϓϦϯάʹΑΓಘΒΕͨ݁ՌΛ͓ࣔͯ͠Γɼͦͷࡍͷෆਖ਼ͳ͠‫ۀا‬ͷܾࢉσʔλ͸‫ۀا‬
਺͕ 141 ࣾɼԆ΂ܾࢉ‫਺ظ‬͸ 5,034 ‫ظ‬෼Ͱશͯਖ਼ৗσʔλͰ͋Δɽ͜͏ͯ͠औಘܾͨ͠ࢉσʔλʹ͍ܾͭͯࢉ೥Λ΋ͱ
ʹ 2008 ೥෼ɼ2009 ೥෼ɼʜɼ2016 ೥෼ɼ2017ʙ2018೥෼ͷ 10 ‫ʹؒظ‬෼ׂ͠ɼ1 ‫ؒظ‬෼ΛςετσʔλɼͦΕҎ֎Λֶशσʔλͱ͢Δ 10th ަࠩ‫ূݕ‬๏ʹΑΓ֤ࡒ຿γάφϧͷ༗ޮੑΛ‫ͨ͠ূݕ‬ɽਤ 1 ͸ֶशσʔλͱςετσʔλͷ෼͚ํͷΠϝʔδΛࣔͨ͠΋ͷͰ͋Δɽ֤ࡒ຿γάφϧͷ༗ޮੑ͸ςετσʔλʹ͓͚Δෆਖ਼σʔλͷ༧ଌਖ਼ղ཰Λ‫ͨ͠ʹج‬ɽද 3ʙ5 ͸ͦΕͧΕ࠷େ෼‫ ਺ذ‬2 ͷܾఆ໦Ϟσϧɼ࠷େ෼‫ ਺ذ‬1 ͷܾఆ໦Ϟσϧʢ੾Γ‫ג‬Ϟσϧʣɼ͓ΑͼϩδεςΟοΫճ‫ؼ‬ϞσϧʹΑΔෆਖ਼༧ଌͷਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ 10 γάφϧΛࣔͨ͠΋ͷͰ͋Δɽ࠷େ෼‫ ਺ذ‬3 ͓Αͼ 4 ͷܾఆ໦Ϟσϧ͸࠷େ෼‫ ਺ذ‬2 ͷܾఆ໦Ϟσϧͱඇৗʹࣅ௨ͬͨ݁ՌͷͨΊলུͨ͠ɽͳ͓ɼෆਖ਼༧ଌਖ਼ղ཰Λଌఆͨ͠ͷ͸ɼֶशσʔλɼςετσʔλͷ૒ํʹ͓͍ͯࡒ຿γάφϧ஋͕‫͕ͦ߹ׂ͖ͨͰࢉܭ‬ΕͧΕ 3 ෼ͷ 1 Ҏ্͋ͬͨsignal ‫ܕ‬෼ࢠͷࡒ຿߲໨

΋ͷʹ‫ݶ‬ఆ͍ͯ͠Δɽ
ද 3 ͱද 4 ͷਖ਼ղ཰ 1 Ґ͸ͲͪΒ΋डऔ഑౰ۚͷલ೥ൺมԽ෯‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼͸ࣗ‫ࢿݾ‬ຊͷࡒ຿γάφϧͰɼਖ਼ղ཰͸͍ۙ஋ʹͳ͍ͬͯΔɽ෼ׂྖҬͷ༧ଌ஋ΛΈΔͱ͜ͷࡒ຿γάφϧ͸஋͕-0.01 ҎԼ͔Ͳ͏͔Ͱෆਖ਼͋Γ͔ͳ͔͠Λ൑அ͓ͯ͠Γɼࡒ຿γάφϧ஋ͷେখ͕ෆਖ਼ͷ༗ແͱ݁ͼ͍͍ͭͯΔͱΈΒΕΔɽ஋ͷେখͱෆਖ਼ͷ༗ແͷ૬͕ؔ‫ࡒ͍ڧ‬຿γάφϧͰ͋Ε͹ྖҬΛೋ෼ׂ͑͢͠͞Ε͹ྑ͍ͨΊɼ࠷େ෼‫ ਺ذ‬2 Ҏ্ͷܾఆ໦Ϟσϧ͸ෆཁͱ‫͑ݴ‬Α͏ɽಛผଛࣦ΍ି౗Ҿ౰ۚΛ༻͍ͨࡒ຿γάφϧ΋ಉྨͰ͋ΔɽҰํɼද 3 ͷਖ਼ղ཰ 3 Ґͷ༗‫ݻܗ‬ఆࢿ࢈ॲ෼ଛͷਫ४‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼Λ૯ࢿ࢈ͱͨ͠ࡒ຿γάφϧΛΈΔͱɼ੾Γ‫ג‬ϞσϧͰͷෆਖ਼͋Γͷਖ਼ղ཰͸ֶशσʔλɼςετσʔλͱ΋ʹ௿໎͓ͯ͠Γɼਖ਼ղ཰ͷॱҐ͸ 60 ҐʹͱͲ·͍ͬͯΔɽ
࠷େ෼‫ ਺ذ‬2 ͷܾఆ໦ϞσϧʹΑΔ͜ͷࡒ຿γάφϧද 5: logstic ճ‫ؼ‬ϞσϧʹΑΔࡒ຿γάφϧਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ 10ਖ਼ղ཰ʢֶशʣ
ਖ਼ղ཰ʢtestʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗ ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
1
qgrowth ࣗ‫ࢿݾ‬ຊ
99.6%
0.7%
99.6%
0.5%
2
ydiff slҾ౰ۚ߹‫ܭ‬100.0%
0.7% 100.0%
0.5%
3ygrowth ҝସ‫ࢉ׵‬ௐ੔‫צ‬ఆ
99.9%
0.7% 100.0%
0.5%
4ygrowth ྦྷੵͦͷଞͷแ‫ׅ‬རӹ 100.0%
0.5% 100.0%
0.4%5qgrowth Ҿ౰ۚ߹‫ܭ‬
100.0%
0.6%
99.9%
0.4%
6
qgrowth ൒੡඼ɾ࢓ֻ඼
100.0%
0.3% 100.0%
0.4%
7
qgrowth ྦྷੵͦͷଞͷแ‫ׅ‬རӹ 100.0%
0.6% 100.0%
0.4%
8ta
൒੡඼ɾ࢓ֻ඼
99.9%
0.4%
99.9%
0.4%
9sl
ྦྷੵͦͷଞͷแ‫ׅ‬རӹ 100.0%
0.4% 100.0%
0.3%
10 ydiff taି౗Ҿ౰ۚ
100.0%
0.4% 100.0%
0.3%
ʢ஫ʣsignal ‫ܕ‬ͷ’ta’ ͸ਫ४‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼͕૯ࢿ࢈ɼ’eq’ ͸ਫ४‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼͕ࣗ‫ࢿݾ‬ຊɼ’sl’ ͸ਫ४‫Ͱܕ‬෼฼͕ച্ߴͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛද͢ɽqdiff **͸લ‫ظ‬ൺมԽ෯‫ܕ‬ɼydiff **͸લ೥ൺมԽ෯‫ܕ‬Λද͠ɼ**ͷ෦෼͸෼฼Λࣔ͢ʢਫ४‫ͱܕ‬ಉ͡‫߸ه‬ʣɽqgrowth ͸લ‫ظ‬ൺ੒௕‫ܕ‬ɼygrowth ͸લ೥ൺ੒௕‫ܕ‬Λද͢ɽNOsignal ‫ܕ‬෼ࢠͷࡒ຿߲໨ͷ෼ׂྖҬΛΈΔͱࡒ຿γάφϧ஋͕-0.01 ҎԼ·ͨ͸
0.03 ΑΓେ͖͍ྖҬ͕ෆਖ਼͋ΓΛ༧ଌ͢ΔྖҬͱͳ͍ͬͯΔҰํɼ੾Γ‫ג‬Ϟσϧ͸શͯͷྖҬͰෆਖ਼ͳ͠ͱ༧ଌ͢Δ݁Ռͱͳ͓ͬͯΓɼ෼‫ ਺ذ‬2 ͷܾఆ໦ϞσϧΛ‫͢༻׆‬Δ͜ͱͰ͜ͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛ༗ޮ‫͖Ͱ༻׆‬ΔΑ͏ʹͳͬͨͱ‫͑ݴ‬ΔɽϩδεςΟοΫճ‫ؼ‬ϞσϧΛ༻͍ͨ৔߹͸ɼද 5 ͔Β෼͔ΔΑ͏ʹෆਖ਼ͳ͠ͷਖ਼ղ཰͕ 100 ύʔηϯτ͍ۙ஋ʹͳ͍ͬͯΔҰํͰෆਖ਼͋Γͷਖ਼ղ཰͸ 1 ύʔηϯτʹຬͨͳ͍ɽϩδεςΟοΫճ‫Ͱؼ‬ෆਖ਼͋Γͱෆਖ਼ͳ͠ʹྖҬΛ෼ׂ͢Δ৔߹ɼෆਖ਼͋Γͱ༧ଌ͢ΔྖҬͰ͸ɼֶशσʔλ্ɼෆਖ਼͋Γͷ‫ࢣڭ‬σʔλ͕൒෼Ҏ্ʹͳ͍ͬͯΔͱߟ͑ΒΕΔ͕ɼͦ͏͍ͬͨྖҬ͕ඇৗʹগͳ͍͜ͱ͔Β΄ͱΜͲͷྖҬͰෆਖ਼ͳ͠ͱ༧ଌ͢ΔϞσϧʹͳ͍ͬͯΔՄೳੑ͕͋Δɽ͜ͷ఺Λ౿·͑Δͱɼਖ਼ৗσʔλͰ͋ͬͯ΋ࡒ຿γάφϧͷ஋͕‫ͳ୺ۃ‬஋ʹͳ͍ͬͯΔϞϊ͕૬౰਺ଘࡏ͠ɼ୯Ұͷγϯϓϧͳࡒ຿γάφϧ͚ͩͰෆਖ਼ͷ༗ແΛଊ͑Δͷ͸೉͍͠σʔλ෼෍ঢ়‫͋ʹگ‬Δͱߟ͑ΒΕΔɽ͜ͷ఺ͷ֬ೝ͸ࠓ‫ޙ‬ͷ՝୊ͱ͍ͨ͠ɽ5ෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ϞσϧͷߏஙલηΫγϣϯͰΈͨ௨Γɼ‫ݸ‬ผͷࡒ຿γάφϧͰ΋ෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ʹ͋Δఔ౓༗ޮͱΈΒΕΔ΋ͷ͕ࢄ‫͞ݟ‬ΕΔ͕ɼͦͷਫ਼౓͸ෆे෼ͳਫ४Ͱ͋ͬͨɽͦ͜Ͱෳ਺ͷࡒ຿γάφϧͷΞ΢τϓοτΛઆ໌ม਺ͱ͢ΔϩδεςΟοΫճ‫ؼ‬ϞσϧΛߏங͠ɼ͜ΕΛ࠷ऴతͳෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌Ϟσϧͱͯ͠༧ଌਫ਼౓Λ֬ೝͨ͠ɽ‫ޙ‬ड़͢Δ͕ɼ࠷ऴϞσϧͷߏஙஈ֊Ͱ͸Πϯϓοτσʔλ͸ࡒ຿γάφϧ͝ͱʹ༧ଌ஋ʢෆਖ਼/ਖ਼ৗʣͱܽଛ஋Λμϛʔม਺Խͨ͠΋ͷʹͳ͍ͬͯΔɽ͜ͷஈ֊Ͱ͸͞ΒͳΔྖҬ෼ׂΛߦ͏ܾఆ໦ϞσϧΑΓ΋ɼ܎਺౳ʹΑΓࡒ຿γάφϧؒͷॏཁ౓͕೺Ѳ͠΍͍͢ϩδεςΟοΫճ‫ؼ‬Ϟσϧ͕๬·͍͠ͱߟ͑ɼ࠷ऴϞσϧͰ͸ϩδεςΟοΫճ‫ؼ‬ϞσϧΛ࠾༻ͨ͠ɽෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌Ϟσϧߏங͔Βਖ਼ղ཰ͷ‫ܭ‬ଌ·ͰͷྲྀΕ͸࣍ͷΑ͏ʹͳΔɽ

1. લηΫγϣϯͷ݁Ռʹ‫͖ͮج‬ɼਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ n ‫ݸ‬ͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛநग़͢Δɽ
2. ਖ਼ղ཰Λ‫ܭ‬ଌ͢Δςετσʔλͱͯ͠શͯͷਖ਼ৗσʔλͱෆਖ਼σʔλΛ౷߹ͨ͠σʔληοτΛ४උ͠ɼલηΫγϣϯͱಉ༷ʹܾࢉ೥ʹΑͬͯσʔληοτΛ 10 ෼ׂ͢Δɽ
3. ςετσʔλʹ༻͍Δܾࢉ೥Ҏ֎ͷσʔλΛ༻͍ͯࡒ຿γάφϧ͝ͱʹܾఆ໦ϞσϧΛֶश͢Δɽͳ͓ɼܾఆ໦Ϟσϧͷֶश͸ΞϯμʔαϯϓϦϯ
άͨ͠ਖ਼ৗσʔλͱෆਖ਼‫ۀا‬σʔλΛ૊Έ߹ΘͤͨσʔληοτΛ༻͍Δɽ
4. ֶशͨ͠ࡒ຿γάφϧ͝ͱͷܾఆ໦Ϟσϧ͔Β౷߹σʔληοτʹ‫·ؚ‬ΕΔશͯͷαϯϓϧʹର͢
Δෆਖ਼͋Γ/ͳ͠ͷ༧ଌ஋Λग़ྗ͢Δɽ
5. ࡒ຿γάφϧ͸໏ฑ΍ܾࢉ‫ʹظ‬Αͬͯ͸‫͖Ͱࢉܭ‬ͳ͍৔߹͕͋Δ͜ͱ͔Βɼࡒ຿γάφϧ͝ͱʹෆਖ਼͋Γɼෆਖ਼ͳ͠ɼܽଛ஋ͷ 3 ͭͷμϛʔม਺Λ४උ͢Δɽ
6. ςετʹ༻͍Δܾࢉ೥ͷσʔλΛআ͍ͨ࢒Γશͯͷ౷߹σʔληοτΛ༻͍ͯɼϩδεςΟοΫճ‫ؼ‬ϞσϧͷύϥϝʔλΛਪ‫͢ܭ‬Δɽ
7. ςετσʔλʹର͢Δෆਖ਼͋Γ/ͳ͠ͷ༧ଌ஋Λग़ྗ͠ɼਖ਼ղ཰Λ‫ܭ‬ଌ͢Δɽ
ද 6 ͸ਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ 20 ͷࡒ຿γάφϧͷ༧ଌ݁ՌΛ༻͍ͨෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌Ϟσϧͷ༧ଌਫ਼౓Λ·ͱΊͨ΋ͷͰɼ
ද 7ʙද 9 ͸ಉ༷ʹਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ 40ɼ্Ґ 60ɼ্Ґ 80 ·ͰΛ༻͍ͨϞσϧͰͷ༧ଌਫ਼౓Λ·ͱΊͨ΋ͷͰ͋Δɽ͜ΕΒͷද͔Βෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌Ϟσϧʹ༻͍Δࡒ຿γάφϧ͕ 60 Λ௒͑Δͱɼਖ਼ղ཰ͷվળ͸಄ଧͪʹͳΔ͜ͱ͕ΈͯͱΕΔɽ͔͠͠ͳ͕Βɼ60 ‫ݸ‬ͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛ༻͍ͨෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ϞσϧͰ΋ෆਖ਼ͳ͠σʔλͷฏ‫ۉ‬ਖ਼ղ཰͸ 20 ύʔηϯτఔ౓ʹͱͲ·͍ͬͯΔɽઌߦ‫ڀݚ‬ͷख๏͸ෆਖ਼σʔλʹର͢Δਖ਼ղ཰͕௿ͯ͘΋ 60ύʔηϯτΛ௒͑Δਫ४ʹ͋Γɼຊ‫ڀݚ‬ͷਖ਼ղ཰͸·ͩ·ͩൺֱͰ͖Δਫ४ʹ͸ୡ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ɽҰํɼઌߦ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ਖ਼ৗσʔλʹର͢Δਖ਼ղ཰͕‫ݢ‬ฒΈ 70 ύʔηϯτఔ౓Ͱ͋Δ͜ͱͱൺֱ͢Ε͹ɼຊ‫ڀݚ‬ͷෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬‫ݕ‬஌Ϟσϧ͕ਖ਼ৗσʔλͷਖ਼ղ཰ 99 ˋΛҡ͍࣋ͯ͠Δ͜ͱ͸ධՁͰ͖Δ఺Ͱ΋͋Δɽਖ਼ৗσʔλʹର͢Δਖ਼ද 6: ਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ 20 ͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛ༻͍ͨෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬‫ݕ‬஌Ϟσϧͷਖ਼ղ཰
test
‫ؒظ‬
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17-18
ฏ‫ۉ‬

ֶश data ਺ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
7917
1233
7901
1249
7885
1261
7891
1261
7876
1265
7882
1237
7862
1247
7824
1284
7260
1305
7,810
1,260

ਖ਼ղ཰ʢֶशʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
99.7% 13.6%
99.2% 15.1%
99.7% 11.7%
99.8% 11.3%
99.6% 13.7%
99.7% 13.1%
99.4% 15.2%
99.5% 14.1%
99.1% 16.0%
99.5% 13.7%

testdata ਺ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
12261
171
12349
155
12490
143
12632
143
12888
139
13276
167
13660
157
14086
120
22453
99
14,011144

ਖ਼ղ཰ʢtestʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
99.4%
9.4%
99.1% 20.0%
99.5% 16.1%
99.7% 11.9%
99.2% 13.7%
99.4%
9.0%
99.4% 10.2%
99.3% 10.0%
99.4% 14.1%
99.4% 12.7%

ද 7: ਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ 40 ͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛ༻͍ͨෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬‫ݕ‬஌Ϟσϧͷਖ਼ղ཰test‫ؒظ‬2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17-18
ฏ‫ۉ‬

ֶश data ਺ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
7917
1233
7901
1249
7885
12617891
1261
7876
1265
7882
1237
7862
1247
7824
1284
7260
1305
7,811
1,260

ਖ਼ղ཰ʢֶशʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
99.60% 18.17%
99.22% 19.14%
99.68% 15.62%
99.70% 14.67%
99.52% 17.63%
99.52% 17.87%
99.41% 19.09%
99.48% 18.69%
99.15% 21.00%
99.47% 17.98%

testdata ਺ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
12261
171
12349
155
12490
143
12632
143
12888
139
13276
167
13660
157
14086
120
99
22453
14,011144

ਖ਼ղ཰ʢtestʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
98.92% 12.28%
98.91% 24.52%
99.06% 22.38%
99.52% 17.48%
98.84% 20.14%
99.13%
8.38%
99.20% 12.74%
98.89% 10.00%
98.93% 11.11%
99.04% 15.45%

ղ཰ͷߴ͞Λҡ࣋ͨ͠··ɼෆਖ਼σʔλͷ‫ݕ‬஌ਫ਼౓ΛߴΊΔ͜ͱ͕౰໘ͷେ͖ͳ՝୊Ͱ͋Δɽ6·ͱΊຊ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸ෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ʹ༗ޮͳࡒ຿γάφϧΛ‫ݕ‬ূ͢ΔͨΊɼσʔλϚΠχϯά๏ʹଇͬͯ෼ੳՄೳͳࡒ຿γάφϧΛ໢ཏతʹ෼ੳͨ͠ɽͦͯ͠ɼ͔ͦ͜ΒಘΒΕͨෆਖ਼σʔλʹର͢Δ༧ଌਫ਼౓ͷߴ͍γάφϧ‫܈‬Λ‫࠷ͯ͠༻׆‬ऴతͳෆਖ਼ձ‫ݕܭ‬஌ϞσϧΛߏஙͨ͠ɽ࠷ऴϞσϧͷෆਖ਼σʔλʹର͢Δਖ਼ղ཰͸ߴ͍ϞσϧͰ΋ 20 ύʔηϯτऑͱ·ͩ·ͩ௿͍ਫ४ʹͱͲ·͓ͬͯΓઌߦ‫ڀݚ‬ͷ༧ଌਫ਼౓ʹରͯ͠େ͖͘‫ྼݟ‬Γ͢Δ͕ɼ
ҰํͰਖ਼ৗσʔλʹର͢Δ༧ଌਫ਼౓͸ 99 ύʔηϯτఔ౓ͱ‫ط‬ଘ‫ʹڀݚ‬͸ΈΒΕͳ͍ߴ͍ਫ४Λอ͍ͬͯΔɽ‫ݱ‬࣮తʹ͸ෆਖ਼σʔλͷ਺ʹൺ΂ͯෆਖ਼ͷͳ͞Ε͍ͯͳ͍ਖ਼ৗσʔλͷൺ཰͸ 1ɿ100 ఔ౓Ͱ͋Γɼѹ౗తʹਖ਼ৗσʔλͷํ͕ଟ͍ɽͦͷͨΊɼਖ਼ৗσʔλʹର͢Δ༧ଌਫ਼౓Λߴ͍ਫ४ʹอ͍ͬͯΔͷ͸౰‫ڀݚ‬ͷϞσϧͷେ͖ͳར఺ͱ‫͑ݴ‬Δɽਖ਼ৗσʔλʹର͢Δߴ͍༧ଌਫ਼౓Λҡ࣋ͭͭ͠ɼෆਖ਼σʔλʹର͢Δ༧ଌਫ਼౓Λվળ͢Δ͜ͱ͕ࠓ‫ޙ‬ͷେ͖ͳ՝୊Ͱ͋ΔɽͦͷଞɼσʔλϚΠχϯά๏Ͱ໢ཏతʹ‫ࡒ֤ͨ͠ূݕ‬຿γάφϧͷதද 8: ਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ 60 ͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛ༻͍ͨෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬‫ݕ‬஌Ϟσϧͷਖ਼ղ཰test‫ؒظ‬2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17-18
ฏ‫ۉ‬

ֶश data ਺ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
7917
1233
7901
1249
7885
1261
7891
1261
7876
1265
7882
1237
7862
1247
7824
1284
7260
1305
7,811
1,260

ਖ਼ղ཰ʢֶशʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
99.57% 21.01%
99.19% 21.86%
99.62% 19.19%
99.66% 18.24%
99.43% 21.66%
99.51% 20.45%
99.33% 21.49%
99.42% 20.87%
99.01% 23.07%
99.41% 20.87%

testdata ਺ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
12261
171
12349
155
12490
143
12632
143
12888
139
13276
167
13660
157
14086
120
22453
99
14,011144

ਖ਼ղ཰ʢtestʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
98.74% 12.87%
98.73% 25.16%
98.74% 24.48%
99.19% 17.48%
98.43% 24.46%
98.91% 12.57%
99.09%
9.55%
98.92% 10.83%
98.96% 19.19%
98.86% 17.40%

ද 9: ਖ਼ղ཰্Ґ 80 ͷࡒ຿γάφϧΛ༻͍ͨෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬‫ݕ‬஌Ϟσϧͷਖ਼ղ཰
test
‫ؒظ‬
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
17-18
ฏ‫ۉ‬

ֶश data ਺ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
7917
1233
7901
1249
7885
1261
7891
1261
7876
1265
7882
1237
7862
1247
7824
1284
7260
1305
7,811
1,260

ਖ਼ղ཰ʢֶशʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
99.61% 21.41%
99.10% 22.82%
99.61% 20.54%
99.56% 19.51%
99.39% 22.37%
99.42% 20.70%
99.29% 23.10%
99.51% 21.73%
98.95% 24.67%
99.38% 21.87%

testdata ਺ෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
12261
171
12349
155
12490
143
12632
143
12888
139
13276
167
13660
157
14086
120
22453
99
14,011144

ਖ਼ղ཰ʢtestʣෆਖ਼ແ ෆਖ਼༗
98.82% 14.04%
98.77% 24.52%
98.57% 21.68%
98.97% 18.18%
98.30% 25.18%
98.94% 13.17%
99.03% 10.83%
98.85% 10.83%
98.64% 21.21%
98.76% 17.74%

਎Λৄࡉʹ෼ੳ͢Δ͜ͱ΋ख෇͔ͣͱͳ͓ͬͯΓɼࠓ‫ޙ‬ͷ՝୊ͱೝ͍ࣝͯ͠Δɽ‫ط‬ଘ‫ڀݚ‬ͷଟ͘͸ຊܾࢉͷΈΛର৅ͱ͍ͯ͠Δͷʹൺ΂ɼຊ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸࢛൒‫ظ‬σʔλΛ෼ੳର৅ʹՃ͑ͨ͜ͱͰ෼ੳର৅σʔλ਺Λ૿΍͢͜ͱ͕ग़དྷ͕ͨɼͦͷར఺Λ‫͍ͳ͍͔ͯͤ׆‬ɽར఺Λ‫͢༻׆‬ΔͨΊʹɼಛఆ࣌‫ظ‬ͷࡒ຿σʔλ୯ಠͷ෼ੳ͚ͩͰͳ͘લ‫ޙ‬ͷͭͳ͕ΓΛ‫ͨ͠༻׆‬෼ੳΛߦ͏͜ͱ΋ࠓ‫ޙ‬ͷ՝୊ͱߟ͍͑ͯΔɽࢀߟจ‫ݙ‬[1] X. Yan and L. Zheng: Fundamental Analysis
and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: A DataMining Approach, The Review of Financial Studies 30(4), pp. 1382-1423 (2017)[2] Messod D. Beneish: The Detection of Earnings
Manipulation, Financial Analysts Journal, pp.
24-36 (1999)[3] Patricia M. Dechow, Weili Ge, Chad R. Larson and Richard G. Sloan: Predicting Material
Accounting Misstatements, Contemporary Accounting Research 28(1) pp. 17-82, (2011)

[4] ౦ւྛ࿨༤, தଜ྄հ, ඌ࡚޾‫ݠ‬: ೔ຊͷ্৔‫ۀا‬ʹ͓͚Δച্աେ‫ʹ্ܭ‬ΑΔෆਖ਼ձ‫ܭ‬ͷ‫ݕ‬஌–ϚϋϥϊϏε‫཭ڑ‬Λ༻͍ͨ‫ػ‬ցֶशʹΑΔํ๏–, ߦಈ‫ ֶྔܭ‬47(2), pp. 123-140 (2020)[5] ࢁాప, ‫ޙ‬౻৾‫ޗ‬: ೔ຊ‫ג‬ϑΝΫλʔϞσϧʹ଍Γͳ͍΋ͷ–σʔλϚΠχϯά๏Λ༻͍ͨ୳๚–, ‫ݱ‬୅ϑΝΠφϯε 42, pp. 37-69 (2020)