Development ofAIM/Impact [Country]
Kiyoshi TAKAHASHINational Institute for Environmental Studies

Items of today’s presentation¾ Background and objective¾ Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]¾ Introduction to the components ofAIM/Impact [Country]¾ Development schedule

Background¾ Increasing attention to national-scale

impact studies.
AIACC (Assessment of the Impact of andAdaptation to Climate Change Project)z National Communicationz¾ Necessity of enhancing efficiency of thecollaboration among AIM/Impact teams.
¾ Suitability of AIM/Impact for assessment ofregional impact.

Objectives and features of theAIM/Impact [Country]¾ Package of models, tools and data for

scenario analysis of national-scale climatechange impact assessment.
¾ Executable on PC-Windows (free fromUNIX & GRASS skill)¾ Bundled datasets for basic assessment.
¾ Readily achievement of spatial analysis.
¾ Detailed manual documents.

Potential users of the model¾ Inside AIM project.
zzzModel is improved by replacing parameters or using moredetailed data.
Recommendation to use IDRISI-GIS.
Source code and the latest databases are shared among theteams.

¾ Outside AIM project.
zzz

Researchers, governmental officers or others who want toassess future national impact of climate change.
Interactive user interface and ready-made datasets are provided
for instant achievement of scenario analysis.
Spatial visualization is achieved with a plain spatial data viewer
controlled from AIM/Impact [Country] interface.

Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]
GIS data trimmed fornational scale assessment

Global GIS data

Input GIS data for impact
assessment models
GIS tool for input datadevelopment(Scenario Creator)

GIS tool for trimming away
ex-focused area
GIS tool for spatial interpolation

Socio-economic and GHG
emission scenarios

Model parameters

Penman-PET model
Thornthwaite-PET model
Potential crop productivity model
Surface runoff modelRiver discharge model
Water demand model
Malarial potential model
Holdridge vegetation classification
Koeppen vegetation classification
Vegetation move possibility model(2) Impact assessment(1) Development of input GIS data for model(3) Analysis of GIS data and outputs

GIS tool for subnational aggregation

Interface tool for
visualizing data on IDRIDIInterface tool for visualizing
data on plain spatial dataviewerOutput GIS data ofimpact assessment model

PREF.ID NAT
REG
PREF
392010100 JPN Hokkaido Hokkaido
392020100 JPN Tohoku Aomori
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020200 JPN Tohoku Iwate
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020500 JPN Tohoku Yamagata
392020300 JPN Tohoku Miyagi
392040100 JPN Hokuriku Niigata
392020600 JPN Tohoku Fukushima
392040300 JPN Hokuriku Ishikawa
392030200 JPN Kanto
Tochigi
392030300 JPN Kanto
Gumma
392050200 JPN Chubu
Nagano392040200 JPN Hokuriku Toyama
392030100 JPN Kanto
Ibaraki

GIS data for sub-nationalspatial aggregation

VALUE
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Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]
GIS data trimmed fornational scale assessment

Global GIS data

Input GIS data for impact
assessment models
GIS tool for input data
development(Scenario Creator)

GIS tool for trimming away
ex-focused area
GIS tool for spatial interpolation

Socio-economic and GHG
emission scenarios

Model parameters

Penman-PET model
Thornthwaite-PET model
Potential crop productivity model
Surface runoff modelRiver discharge model
Water demand model
Malarial potential modelHoldridge vegetation classification
Koeppen vegetation classification
Vegetation move possibility model(2) Impact assessment(1) Development of input GIS data for model(3) Analysis of GIS data and outputs

GIS tool for subnational aggregation

Interface tool for
visualizing data on IDRIDIInterface tool for visualizing
data on plain spatial data
viewerOutput GIS data ofimpact assessment model

PREF.ID NAT
REG
PREF
392010100 JPN Hokkaido Hokkaido
392020100 JPN Tohoku Aomori
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020200 JPN Tohoku Iwate
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020500 JPN Tohoku Yamagata
392020300 JPN Tohoku Miyagi
392040100 JPN Hokuriku Niigata
392020600 JPN Tohoku Fukushima
392040300 JPN Hokuriku Ishikawa
392030200 JPN Kanto
Tochigi
392030300 JPN Kanto
Gumma
392050200 JPN Chubu
Nagano392040200 JPN Hokuriku Toyama
392030100 JPN Kanto
Ibaraki

GIS data for sub-national
spatial aggregation

VALUE
12-10-5-5
2
3-13-28-6-7
151712-1

Development of input GIS data for
impact assessment models
GIS data trimmed fornational scale assessment

Global GIS dataInput GIS data for impact
assessment models

Ready-made global GIS data

Additional GCM results
Observed climate fromother data sources

Originally imported GIS data
trimmed at focused area

Regional climate modelresults
Region-specific soil data
Population distribution withfiner resolution

GIS tool for input data
development(Scenario Creator)

Originally imported global GIS data

GIS tool for trimming away
ex-focused area
GIS tool for spatial interpolation

Observed climate (LINK)GCM results (IPCC-DDC)
Soil (DSMW, FAO)
Population (NGCIA)
Cropland and Irrigated land

Monthly climate：Temperature, Rainfall,
Cloudiness, Windspeed
Socio-economic:
Population distribution
Cropland / IrrigatedlandSoil:
Soil unit, soil texture,slope, soil phase, fieldcapacity, elevation,
albedoSocio-economic and GHG emission scenarios
GHG emission scenarios
Originally imported data

Change of annual mean global
temperature

Ready-made data bundled in the package
Tools and Models

Scenarios of population changeand other socio-economic factors

A1

A2

B1

B2

Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]
GIS data trimmed fornational scale assessment

Global GIS data

Input GIS data for impact
assessment models
GIS tool for input datadevelopment(Scenario Creator)

GIS tool for trimming away
ex-focused area
GIS tool for spatial interpolation

Socio-economic and GHG
emission scenarios

Model parameters

Penman-PET model
Thornthwaite-PET model
Potential crop productivity model
Surface runoff modelRiver discharge model
Water demand model
Malarial potential model
Holdridge vegetation classification
Koeppen vegetation classification
Vegetation move possibility model(2) Impact assessment(1) Development of input GIS data for model(3) Analysis of GIS data and outputs

GIS tool for subnational aggregation

Interface tool for
visualizing data on IDRIDIInterface tool for visualizing
data on plain spatial dataviewer

Output GIS data ofimpact assessment model

PREF.ID NAT
REG
PREF
392010100 JPN Hokkaido Hokkaido
392020100 JPN Tohoku Aomori
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020200 JPN Tohoku Iwate
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020500 JPN Tohoku Yamagata
392020300 JPN Tohoku Miyagi
392040100 JPN Hokuriku Niigata
392020600 JPN Tohoku Fukushima
392040300 JPN Hokuriku Ishikawa
392030200 JPN KantoTochigi
392030300 JPN Kanto
Gumma
392050200 JPN Chubu
Nagano392040200 JPN Hokuriku Toyama
392030100 JPN Kanto
Ibaraki

GIS data for sub-national
spatial aggregation

VALUE
12-10-5-5
2
3-13-28-6-7
151712-1

Impact assessment models
Input GIS data for impact
assessment models

Output GIS data of impact
assessment model

Monthly climate：
Temperature, Rainfall,
Cloudiness, Windspeed
Socio-economic:
Population distribution
Cropland / IrrigatedlandSoil:
Soil unit, soil texture,slope, soil phase, field
capacity, elevation,albedo

Penman-PET model
Thornthwaite-PET model
Potential crop productivity model
Surface runoff modelRiver discharge model
Water demand model
Malarial potential model
Holdridge vegetation classification
Koeppen vegetation classification
Vegetation move possibility model

Model parameters
Characteristics of crop growth
Soil constraints on crop production
Snow melt temperature
Rate of water discharge in river
Potential rate of vegetation move
Ready-madeOriginally imported

Penman-PET
Thornthwaite-PET
Potential crop productivity
Surface runoff
River discharge
Water demand
Malarial potential
Holdridge vegetation classificationKoeppen vegetation classification
Vegetation move possibility

Framework of AIM/Impact [Country]
GIS data trimmed fornational scale assessment

Global GIS data

Input GIS data for impact
assessment models
GIS tool for input datadevelopment(Scenario Creator)

GIS tool for trimming away
ex-focused area
GIS tool for spatial interpolation

Socio-economic and GHG
emission scenarios

Model parameters

Penman-PET model
Thornthwaite-PET model
Potential crop productivity model
Surface runoff modelRiver discharge model
Water demand model
Malarial potential model
Holdridge vegetation classification
Koeppen vegetation classification
Vegetation move possibility model(2) Impact assessment(1) Development of input GIS data for model(3) Analysis of GIS data and outputs

GIS tool for subnational aggregation

Interface tool for
visualizing data on IDRIDIInterface tool for visualizing
data on plain spatial dataviewer

Output GIS data ofimpact assessment model

PREF.ID NAT
REG
PREF
392010100 JPN Hokkaido Hokkaido
392020100 JPN Tohoku Aomori
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020200 JPN Tohoku Iwate
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020500 JPN Tohoku Yamagata
392020300 JPN Tohoku Miyagi
392040100 JPN Hokuriku Niigata
392020600 JPN Tohoku Fukushima
392040300 JPN Hokuriku Ishikawa
392030200 JPN KantoTochigi
392030300 JPN Kanto
Gumma
392050200 JPN Chubu
Nagano392040200 JPN Hokuriku Toyama
392030100 JPN Kanto
Ibaraki

GIS data for sub-national
spatial aggregation

VALUE
12-10-5-52
3-13-28-6-7
151712-1

Analysis of GIS data and outputs
Output GIS data of impact
assessment model

Global GIS data
GIS data trimmed fornational scale assessment
Input GIS data for impactassessment models

GIS data of sub-national
administrative boundary

GIS tool for
sub-national
aggregation

GIS data for sub-national
spatial aggregation

Interface tool for
visualizing data on plain
spatial data viewer

Other GIS data

Interface tool for
visualizing data on IDRIDI

Penman-PET
Thornthwaite-PET
Potential crop productivity
Surface runoff
River discharge
Water demand
Malarial potential
Holdridge vegetation classification
Koeppen vegetation classification
Vegetation move possibility

IDRISI

Plain spatial data viewer
PREF.ID NAT
REG
PREF
392010100 JPN Hokkaido Hokkaido
392020100 JPN Tohoku Aomori
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020200 JPN Tohoku Iwate
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020500 JPN Tohoku Yamagata
392020300 JPN Tohoku Miyagi
392040100 JPN Hokuriku Niigata
392020600 JPN Tohoku Fukushima
392040300 JPN Hokuriku Ishikawa
392030200 JPN Kanto
Tochigi
392030300 JPN Kanto
Gumma
392050200 JPN Chubu
Nagano392040200 JPN Hokuriku Toyama
392030100 JPN Kanto
Ibaraki

VALUE
12-10-5-5
2
3-13-28-6-7
151712-1

Aggregation tosub-national level

Analysis of GIS data and outputs- Visualization ¾For IDRISI userzzz¾GIS data in AIM/Impact [Local] will
have genuine IDRISI format, andAIM/Impact [country] visualize thedata with starting up IDRISI
through IDRISI-API functions.
Full IDRISI functions can be used
to process and analyze the GIS
data in AIM/Impact [Local].
Restriction: IDRISI costs almost
US$1000 and cannot be includedin the AIM/Impact-Country CDROM.

For Non IDRISI userz

Plain spatial data viewer software(COMPAC FORTRAN ArrayVisualizer) is included in thepackage, and user can see andprint out the results visually.

Analysis of GIS data and outputs- Regional aggregation ¾ Numerical grasp of theresult with representativevalues is also importantand useful.
¾ Input GIS data andassessed results ofimpacts are aggregatedspatially and mean values
for sub-national divisions
are tabulated.
¾ Ready-made GIS data of
sub-national divisions
incorporated in thepackage.

PREF.ID NAT
REG
PREF
392010100 JPN Hokkaido Hokkaido
392020100 JPN Tohoku Aomori
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020200 JPN Tohoku Iwate
392020400 JPN Tohoku Akita
392020500 JPN Tohoku Yamagata
392020300 JPN Tohoku Miyagi
392040100 JPN Hokuriku Niigata
392020600 JPN Tohoku Fukushima
392040300 JPN Hokuriku Ishikawa
392030200 JPN Kanto
Tochigi
392030300 JPN Kanto
Gumma
392050200 JPN Chubu
Nagano392040200 JPN Hokuriku Toyama
392030100 JPN Kanto
Ibaraki

VALUE
12-10-5-5
2
3-13-28-6-7
151712-1

Integrated user interface ofAIM/Impact-country¾ User-friendly MS Visual

Configuration file forcontrolling
tools and models

GIS tool forsub-nationalaggregation

Manual writing ofconfiguration file

Interface tool for
visualizing data on plain
spatial data viewer

Integrated user interface

Penman-PET model
Thornthwaite-PET model
Potential crop productivity model
Surface runoff modelRiver discharge model
Water demand model
Malarial potential model
Holdridge vegetation classification
Koeppen vegetation classification
Vegetation move possibility modelInterface tool for
visualizing data on IDRIDIGIS tool for input datadevelopment(Scenario Creator)

GIS tool for trimming away
ex-focused area
GIS tool for spatial interpolation

Basic form similar to theAIM-Trend.
¾ The interface is used tocomplete a configuration
file controlling data
management tools,
models, visualization tool.
¾ Configuration file can beedited manually, whichenables complicatedmodel simulation withbatch programming by
expert users.

Development schedule¾ Draft version:

September 2002.
¾ First distribution: End of this year.
¾ Presentation of preliminary assessments using

AIM/Impact [Country] is expected at the AIM Workshop
in March 2003.

¾ Public distribution: ???

END