The 10th AIM International Workshop
10-12 March 2005
NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Recent Development of
AIM Models and Activities
Mikiko Kainuma
National Institute for Environmental Studies

AIM model building and its
contribution
Country Model
COP3
AIM/Enduse model in Japan

COP10Economic
Model

COP8Analysis of
Carbon Tax

AIM/Enduse model in Asia
(Country -> Local)
ECO-ASIA
UNEP/GEO
Climate Change Impact Assessment Model
IPCC
IPCC
IPCC SRES TAR
AR4Long-term Emission Scenarios with Global Model
EMF
Ecosystem
Model
MA1991

1994

1997

2000

Element
Model
PolicyAssessment
Model

Global Model
Element
Model
PolicyAssessment
Model2005

AIM/Impact[Policy]
AIM/Impact[

Main models
developed inFY2004

Simplifiedintegrated
integrated
Simplified
assessmentmodel
model
assessment
for climate stabilization
Globalemission
emissionpaths
pathstotoclimate
climateGlobalstabilization
stabilization

AIM/CGE
AIM/CGE/Material
Global multi-regional
Global multi-regional
CGEtype
typeenergy
energyCGE-Economicmodel
model
EconomicAbatement
cost curves andof reduction
potentials of reduction

AIM/Air
Local airpollution model

AIM/Enduse
AIM/Enduse/Local
Bottom-up type
Bottom-up typeenergy-emission
energyemission
modelmodel

Strategic DataBase
Emissions Scenarios DatabaseRegionalImpact
ImpactandandRegional
Adaptation
details
Adaptation details

AIM/Impact
AIM/Impact
Process model forassessing detailed
climateimpacts
impacts
climateRegional
detailsonclimateeconomic
vulnerability
andclimatevulnerability
andadaptationpotential
potential
adaptation

Macro
Macro
economic-driving forces
onenergy
consumption
andon energy
consumption
andGHG
emissions
GHG emissions

Activities/Contribution- APEIS Workshop
August 2004, Bangkok- Informal Modeling Meeting by MoFA
- AIM Training Workshop
November-December 2004, NIES
- 10th AIM International Workshop
10-12 March 2005, NIES
- IPCC 4th Assessment Report- UNEP/GEO4

Some outputs from Enduse [Global]

100
Replace Urea wit h Ammonium Sulphat e
Complet e mix digest er for elect ricit y80
Marginal Cost (US$/t-CO2Eq)

P lug flow digest er for elect ricit y60
Covered anaerobic digest er for elect ricit y40

Coal Bed Met hane Vent ilat ion Oxidizer for Heat
Coal Bed Met hane Degasificat ionfor Nat ural Gas P ipeline Inject ion

20

Use of Low Bleed P neumat ic Devices
Use of Inst rument Air0-20-40

02Landfill gas t o direct gas use

46810Coal Bed Met hane Degasificat ion for Elect ricit y
Coal Bed Met hane Vent ilat ion for Elect ricit y1214

Landfill gas t o elect ricit y

CH4 Reduction (Mt-CO2Eq)

Additional function to estimate
marginal abatement cost curveReduction potential from steel sector in 2020
600
40500

CO2 Emission (Mt-CO2)

2,500

CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2)

32

2,307
(-28%)(-25%)(-17%)(-21%)(-15%)(-24%)

+787

2,000

97

400

300

200

1721
2174

67

1414
46

74

1,500

22
24

Developing Others

74

Brazil79

EU-10 in EasternEuropeIndia

100

175200Russia

115

Reduction
Emission

China0< US$0/t-CO2500

Developed

58

1,520

1,000

108

< US$100/tCO2< US$300/tCO2

Discount rate = 33%

600

AC < 300

AC < 100

2020 DR= 33%

Discount

Abatement CostRate

US$/tCO2

Mt-CO2vs frozen

33%

less than 0

338

15%

less than 100

486

21%

less than 300

546

24%

5%

CO2 Reduction

less than 0

395

17%

less than 100

571

25%

less than 300

642

28%

Others66

500
CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2)2020 DR= 5%

AC < 0AC < 300

AC < 0AC < 100

DR=Discount rate
AC = Abatement Cost (US$/tCO2)

2020 Frozen20000400300

262547202547

1415286666

1528152868

6868888888

Coke dry typequenchingHigh efficiency
heating furnace
Increase of coal
injection
LDG & latent heatrecoveryContinuous caster
Retire of OHF

200100124

124124Large size blast
furnace
Large size coke oven
Furnace gas recovery0< US$0/t-CO2
Discount rate = 33%< US$100/tCO2< US$300/tCO2

Discount rate = 5%
Rest of the World

AfricaOther Latin America

Brazil2,000

Argentine

RussiaEU-10 in Eastern Europe

EU-15 in Western EuropeUSACanada

New ZealandAustralia

Middle EastOther South Asia

Other South-east Asia

ThailandKorea

Indonesia

India

ChinaJapan

Reduction Potential (Mt-CO2)

Region-wise reduction potential in 2020
2,500
US$ 100-300/t-CO2

US$ 0-100/t-CO2< US$ 0/t-CO2

1,500

1,000

5000

Technology with large reduction potential
under 100 US$ marginal abatement costs in 2020

Developed(MtCO2)

Developing/Transition(MtCO2)

2,462

High efficiency gasoline engine (VVLT,GDI etc)

632

Existing type of power plant(coal ,gas)

Existing type of power plant (coal ,gas)546

Use of instrument air, low bleed
pneumatic devices*676

Inverter control for motor216

Gas high efficiency industrial furnace449

Fluorescent of incandescent type

143

Inverter control for motor

431

Domestic refrigeration: recovery

129

Coal bed methane ventilation oxidizerfor heat**232* Recovery of CH4 leakage from natural gas pipeline and well** Recovery of CH4 in coal mine

Discount rate = 5%

200200

150

150

100

100

50

50

000

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

-50

0-50

-100-100

CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2)

CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2)

DevelopedDeveloping/Transition
Discount rate = 5%, 2020

Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

Marginal abatement cost of developed anddeveloping/transition economies

200150

150

100

10050

50

000

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

0-50

-50-100-100
CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2)

CO2 Reduction (Mt-CO2)

DevelopedDeveloping/Transition

Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)

Marginal Abatement Cost (US$/t-CO2)200

Discount rate = 5%, 2020

Outputs of AIM presented in the following sessions- Impact modeling [Session II & III]- Emission inventory and modeling in China,India, Thailand and Korea [Session IV & V]
- AIM/Air [Session VI]- Emissions scenarios database for IPCC AR4[Session VII]

- UNEP/GEO4 Scenarios [Session VII]
- Strategic database [Session VIII]- CGE modeling for APEIS project [Session VIII]- Scenarios for low carbon society toward 2050
project [Session IX]

Thank you for your continued
collaboration!