経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第16回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #16)

AI ʊʧʪ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςற१ʱ۵ຖɶɾ
COVID-19 Ԉ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣഒউ
AI-based analysis of impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions
against COVID-19 with respect to country/region featuresฐ໠ દ‫ ݎ‬1∗ љ஑ ‫ ޯۏ‬2 ഇ୔ ෲ՚ 1 যπ ੷‫ ݎ‬1Զђ ๎ି 1 ஑ࡥ ฺ੝ 1 ഇ୔ ՞‫ޔ‬໶ 1 ੝ඝ ۴ਸ਼໶ 1
Tomoya Noro1
Takashi Kato2
Shigeki Fukuta1
Tatsuya Asai1
Hiroaki Iwashita1
Yuta Fujishige1
Takasaburo Fukuda1
Kotaro Ohori11Ө߲҇ࠔೡ޲૾ٰ֖ࢊ
Fujitsu Laboratories Ltd.
2ೡ޲૾‫́˚˕˟ࡃ׳‬ƪˁ˘ˁˠ˿ˊƪˌӨ߲҇ࠔ
2
Fujitsu Kyushu Network Technologies Limited
1

Abstract: Each country/region has implemented some non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs),
such as school closure, workplace closure, restriction of gatherings, and stay-at-home requirement,
to control COVID-19 epidemic. It is important to analyze the association between the NPIs
and COVID-19 incidence and to estimate the impact of each of the NPIs against COVID-19 forthe future policy-making. Although the impact potentially diﬀers depending on country/region
features (e.g. society, economy, life style), existing works for analysis of COVID-19 transmission
growth and control according to NPIs and country/region features are done separately, and noanalysis of the impact of each NPIs with respect to country/region features has been done asof yet. In this paper, we extract exhaustively combination of NPIs and country/region featuresassociated with COVID-19 incidence using “Wide Learning” developed by Fujitsu Laboratories,
and propose hypotheses for impact of the NPIs against COVID-19 with respect to country/region
features as well as comparing our findings with findings on the existing analysis of the impact of
NPIs against COVID-19.

1

ʎɷʠʊ

ओ‫˜˿˅ث‬ʸʶ˽ˋԈ঱ࣇ (COVID-19) ʎƒ2019 ௻
12 ٚʊ઺‫ܙ‬ʍ೸ԓʆࢉʠʅʍԈ঱ࠖɫ൙‫ܘ‬ɴʫɾ‫گ‬ƒ
216 ʍ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʆ 2300 වऩΤࣣʍԈ঱ࠖƒ80 වऩΤࣣʍ߄൸ࠖɫӂ௳ɴʫ1 ƒ‫ݥڇ‬ʡԈ঱Ҽ੝ɫ਩ɣʅɣʪƓɶɪɶƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍପ୩ʎ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʊʧʩ੝ɬɮεʉʪƓ˺ƪ˿˕ˣʍ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʆʎ‫ࢉݍ‬ʍԈ঱ࠖɫӂ௳ɴʫʅɪʨ֎ُʊԈ঱ࠖॐɫਕљɶƒʶˑ˼ʴʣˋˬʶ
̅ƒʶˀ˼ˋஉʆʎ߄൸ࠖॐʡ֎ਕɶɾƓ˺ƪ˿˕ˣΤҤʆʡʴ˳˼ʽʣ˨˻ˊ˽ƒʶ̅˛உʆறʊԈ঱ɫҼ੝ɶʅɣʪƓφൣƒੜ།ƒ௪චƒԬ‫ܙ‬உʍ୼ʴˊʴƓ∗ ໞ๭ঢƕӨ߲҇ࠔೡ޲૾ٰ֖ࢊ
ƏƏƏƏƏƏǵ 211-8588 ज௎ন‫ٳ‬ন‫ ઺୔ࢬࣣ޸ݰ‬4-1-1ƏƏƏƏƏƏ E-mail: t.noro@fujitsu.com
ƏƏƏƏƏƏ ORCID: 0000-0002-5645-8497
1 WHO ౙ೅ (2020 ௻ 8 ٚ 24 ௪‫)ݥڇ‬Ɠhttps://who.int/
emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019୼௜ʴˊʴʍ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʣʼƪˋ˚˻˼ʴƒ˝˷ƪˊƪ˻̅˛உʍʼˍʴ˝ʴʍ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʆʎƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ʱಐӇ଺๞ॣɶʅɣʪƓԈ঱Ҽ੝ʱ๞ɧ‫ܦ‬ʟɾʠƒҺ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʆʎํƧʉ੆‫ݼ‬ʱࠄ߀ɶʅɣʪƓɼʍ઺ʊʎƒࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬ʣӌۣപ݅ƒϼ‫ז‬։߃ƒҤࡰॣ‫ڌ‬உƒοຣʣถ‫ݤ‬ʊʧʨʉɣ੆‫( ݼ‬nonpharmaceutical intervention, NPI) ʡɡʪƓԈ঱ࠖॐʣ߄൸ࠖॐʍ஍‫ك‬ʱʡʇʊɶɾഒউ [4, 6, 7, 9] ʣॐ๽˴˙˽Ɣˉ˱˷˾ƪˉ˹̅҈উ [3, 8, 14] ʊʧʩƒɲʫʨʍ੆‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣʱीଜɸʪٰ֖ɫਵɮ൙‫ܘ‬ɴʫʅɣʪƓφൣƒՔ‫ࣰڿ‬ٛ (Քяʣࠀ୩உ)ƒ‫( ࢀुݗؼ‬GDP உ)ƒ
ऩ‫ۇ‬஍‫( ك‬ऩ‫ۇ‬෋୩ʣ௻໎ലऩ‫ۇ‬ಐஉ)ƒٞۗʣॲӜࡌԉʊԪɸʪ஍‫( ك‬Դʊʧʪ߄൸ຆƒ஌௮ೊቌԇຆƒպФຆஉ) ʇɣʂɾҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ɫ COVID-19 ʍԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍପ୩ʊԪໞɸʪʇʡ‫ڊ‬ʮʫʅɩʩƒɲʫʨʍਂԪʍอ෗ʱ஍‫଺ك‬ഒউ [1, 2, 10, 11] ʣॐ๽˴˙˽Ɣ経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第16回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #16)

ˉ˱˷˾ƪˉ˹̅҈উ [12] ʊʧʩीଜɸʪٰ֖ʡ൙‫ܘ‬ɴʫʅɣʪƓɶɪɶƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍ੆‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬ѢʍഒউʇҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʍਂԪʍഒউʎലƧʊ‫ۼ‬ʮʫƒ஍܏଺ʉഒউʎɴʫʅɣʉɣƓແɧʏƒHunter ʨʎƒࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬ƒӌۣപ݅ƒ˾ˋ˚˻̅ʣˢƪʉʈʍφ೼ʍ˥ˊ˟ˋʍ։‫ז‬ʍࠄ߀ʎԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍ๞ॣʇʍԪໞɫɡʪ
φൣƒɸʘʅʍ೜๗೜֎ˇƪ˥ˋʍ։‫ז‬ʣҤࡰॣ‫ڌ‬ʍࠄ߀ʊԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍ๞ॣʇʍԪໞɫʉɣɲʇʱߪɶʅɣ
ʪ [4] ɫƒ‫ۄ‬Ѣʍอ෗ʎɼʍ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʊʧʂʅ
εʉʪњఉ१ɫɡʪƓʡɶνɣɫɡʪʇɸʫʏƒʈʍʧɥʉற१ɫϾ‫׏‬ɸʪɿʬɥɪƓɲʫɫ෢ʨɪʇʉʫ
ʏƒ‫گܩ‬ʍ COVID-19 Ԉ঱Ҽ੝ʍਫ਼ 2 ఔƒਫ਼ 3 ఔʊ੆ɶʅƒ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςɳʇʊɼʍற१ʊ܏ʂɾ‫ۄ‬Ѣ଺ʉ੆‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ɫՎ੊ʆɬʪƓච‫ۮ‬ʆʎƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍ COVID-19 Ԉ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ࣳ‫ׅ‬ʇҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʇԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍ๞ॣʇʍԪໞʱƒॐ๽˴˙˽Ɣˉ˱˷˾ƪˉ˹̅҈উʆʎʉɮƒࠄ˙ƪˑʱʡʇʊɶɾ஍‫଺ك‬ഒউʊʧʩ
٫ࡰɸʪƓഒউʊʎƒೡ޲૾ٰ֖ࢊʍҟౙիࡱǄWide
Learningǅ [5, 13] 2 ʱ๸๑ɶƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍ๞ॣʊԪໞ
ɸʪ߀‫ݼ‬ʇ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʱ෸๥଺ʊા
ࡰɸʪƓWide Learning ʆાࡰɶɾৠʞ܏ʮɺʱ࡞๨
ٰ֖ʆமʨʫɾઢ‫ٵ‬ʇಐӇɸʪʇʇʡʊƒ࡞๨ٰ֖ʆ
‫֊ڊ‬ɴʫʅɣʉɣৠʞ܏ʮɺʊʃɣʅƒ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʱ۵ຖɶɾ߀‫ۄݼ‬ѢʊԪɸʪओɾʉєজʱଥߪɸʪƓ

2

࡞๨ٰ֖

2.1

Һ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍ COVID-19 Ԫໞ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣ

Hunter ʨʎƒ˺ƪ˿˕ˣ 30̈‫ܙ‬ʱ੆ࣛʊƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςɫࠄ߀ɶɾࡘ҇ॣ‫( ڌ‬mass gathering restrictions)ƒ‫׃‬
σՑԪപ݅ (educational facilitites closed)ƒ˾ˋ˚˻̅ʣˢƪஉʍφ೼ʍ೜๗೜֎˥ˊ˟ˋപ݅ (initial business closure)ƒɸʘʅʍ೜๗೜֎ˇƪ˥ˋപ݅ (nonessential services closed)ƒҤࡰॣ‫( ڌ‬stay at home order)ƒ˧ʹʶˋ˰ˋˁહ๑ (face coverings) ʍ 6 ʃʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣʱഒউɶʅɣʪ [4]Ɠഒউʊʎ˫ʶˌφ౶ѓљ൥ܴ܏˴˙˽ (GAMM) ʱ๸๑ɶƒҺ߀‫ݼ‬ҟ޳௪ɪʨʍ‫ؼ‬ѷ௪ॐʇԈ঱ࠖॐɩʧʒ߄൸ࠖॐʍԪ‫ؤ‬ʱीଜɶʅɣʪƓɼʍٗѢƒࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬ƒφ೼ʍ˥ˊ˟ˋʍ։‫ז‬ƒ‫׃‬σՑԪപ݅ʎԈ঱ࠖॐƒ߄൸ࠖॐʍ๞ॣʇԪໞɫɡ
ʩƒɸʘʅʍ೜๗೜֎ˇƪ˥ˋപ݅ƒҤࡰॣ‫ڌ‬ƒ˧ʹʶˋ˰ˋˁહ๑ʎԪໞɫ‫ٵ‬ʨʫʉɣʇɶʅɣʪ3 Ɠ
Islam ʨʎƒ149 ʍ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʱ੆ࣛʊƒӌۣപ݅ (school
closures)ƒं࣪പ݅ (workplace closures)ƒ‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ
2 https://widelearning.labs.fujitsu.com
3 Ҥࡰॣ‫ڌ‬ʎʟɶʬԈ঱ࠖॐʍਕљʇƒ˧ʹʶˋ˰ˋˁહ๑ʎ߄
൸ࠖॐʍਕљʇԪໞɫɡʪɲʇʱߪɶʅɣʪƓ݅ (public transport closure)ƒ੝՜෱ࡘ҇ॣ‫( ڌ‬restrictions on mass gathering)ƒ˿˕ˁ˒ʸ̅ (lockdown) ʍ
5 ʃʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣʱഒউɶʅɣʪ [6]Ɠɲʍഒউʆʎƒ‫ڎ‬Ƨʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʆʎʉɮƒഉॐʍ੆‫ݼ‬ʍடߢࠄ߀ʣࠄ߀ࢇ࢘
ʊુ෾ɶƒӌۣപ݅ƒं࣪പ݅ƒ੝՜෱ࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬ƒ˿˕ˁ˒ʸ̅ʍடߢࠄ߀ʎԈ঱ࠖॐʍ๞ॣʇԪໞɫɡʪɫƒɼʫʊ‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅ʱљɧʅʡʧʩ੝ɬʉ๞ॣʇʍԪ
ໞʎ‫ٵ‬ʨʫʉɣɲʇʇƒ˿˕ˁ˒ʸ̅ʱӌۣപ݅ʣं
࣪പ݅ʧʩ৹ɮࠄ߀ɸʪʇƒભɮࠄ߀ɸʪ࣪܏ʊಐʘ
ʅʧʩ੝ɬʉ๞ॣʇԪໞɸʪɲʇʱߪɶʅɣʪƓɲʫʨʍഒউʆʎƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʎ۵ຖɶʅɩ
ʨɹƒற१ʊʧʪҺ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣʍอ෗ʍνɣʊʃɣʅ
ʎ෢ʨɪʇʉʂʅɣʉɣƓච‫ۮ‬ʆʎƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʱ۵ຖɶƒற१ʇ੆‫ݼ‬ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬ѢʊԪໞɸʪєজʱౙ‫ٵ‬ɸʪƓ

2.2Һ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʇ COVID-19 Ԉ঱Ҽ੝ࣳ‫ׅ‬Notari ʨʎƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍऩ‫ۇ‬ƒՔ‫ڿ‬ƒ‫ݗؼ‬ƒॲӜࡌԉƒοຣஉʊԪ‫ؤ‬ɸʪற१ (஍‫ )ك‬ʇԈ঱Ҽ੝ࣳ‫ׅ‬ʍਂԪʱഒউɶʅɣʪ [10]Ɠਵɮʍ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʆʎƒԈ঱ࠖ
ॐɫ 10 ʍʼƪ˒ʊஎ੷ɸʪʇƒɼʍ‫گ‬ʍॐࡕԨʎ޼ॐ
଺ʊԈ঱ࠖॐɫਕ੝ɶƒɼʍ‫گ‬ƒ˿˕ˁ˒ʸ̅உʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʣ‫ීܙ‬ʍί߳ഷѓஉʍϾ‫׏‬ʊʧʩਕљ‫ۈإ‬ʎԝʣɪʇʉʩƒʣɫʅਕљ‫ۈإ‬ʎɩɴʝʪɲʇʊહ෾ɶƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍࢉՎઞҠʊɩɰʪਕљˬƪˋʇҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʍਂԪʱ౧ଜɶʅɣʪƓɼʍٗѢƒՔяƒҤ‫ܙ‬ऩທ‫ࠖۼ‬ॐƒ‫܊‬໎ࠖƔ໧஝ࠖಐƒ୤޸೼ऩ‫ۇ‬ಐƒథɫʲ߄൸ຆƒʴ˽˅ƪ˽ࣁಛສƒBCG খ࠱ຆஉʇԈ঱ࠖॐʍਕљˬƪˋʍԨʊਂԪɫɡʪʇɶʅɣʪƓɲʍٰ֖ʆʎƒ੆ࣛʱԈ঱Ҽ੝ࢉՎʍԈ঱ࠖॐʍഷ
ѓʊ‫ڌ‬ଜɶƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʍϾ‫׏‬ʱట࢜ɶʉɫʨƒ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʇԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍԪໞʱഒউɶʅɣʪƓච‫ۮ‬ʆʎƒ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ɿɰʆʉɮƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςɫʇʪ߀‫ݼ‬ʡ۵ຖɶƒற१ʇ߀‫ݼ‬ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍ‫ۄ‬ѢʊԪໞɸʪєজʱౙ‫ٵ‬ɸʪƓ

3

ഒউࠬ൥

3.1

Wide Learningೡ޲૾ٰ֖ࢊʍҟౙիࡱǄWide Learningǅ [5, 13]ʎƒഒ຾ฆ੠ʱ੆ࣛʇɶƒ௬ອ˙ƪˑ‫܈‬෾ (জ෢ഷॐ)ʍɡʨʥʪৠʞ܏ʮɺʱ෸๥଺ʊઉ‫ݽ‬ɶƒഒ຾˻˫˽
(෾଺ഷॐ) ʍ౧ଜʊ଼ɶɾৠʞ܏ʮɺʱࡥ๗ʉєজǄ˜˾˕ˊ˓˵̅ˁ (knowledge chunk, KC)ǅʇɶʅ෸๥
଺ʊાࡰɸʪƓWide Learning ʊʧʩƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʣԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ࣳ‫ׅ‬ʊԪɸʪ௬ອ˙ƪ経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第16回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #16)

ˑ‫܈‬෾ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʍ઺ɪʨ๞ॣ‫ۄ‬Ѣʍอ෗ʊԪໞɸ
ʪ KC ʱ໑֣ɸʪɲʇɫʆɬʪƓ໑֣ɶɾ KC ʎƒԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬ѢʊԪɸʪ࡞๨ٰ֖ʍઢ‫ٵ‬ʇಐӇɸʪʇʇʡʊƒ࡞๨ٰ֖ʆ‫֊ڊ‬ɴʫʅɣʉɣ KC ʊʃɣʅƒ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςற१ʱ۵ຖɶɾԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬ѢʊԪɸʪओɾʉєজʇɶʅଥߪɸʪƓ
Wide Learning ʱԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣഒউʊ଼๑ɸʪ࣪܏ƒӌۣപ݅ʣҤࡰॣ‫ڌ‬ʉʈʍԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ʍอ෗ƒ߀‫ݼ‬ҟ޳ɪʨʍ‫ؼ‬ѷ௪ॐɫ 7 ௪ΤࣣƔෆෂʇɣʂɾ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ࣳ‫ׅ‬ʊԪɸʪ‫܈‬෾ʣƒ1 ऩ
ɡɾʩ GDP ɫ‫܊‬ɣƔକɣƒ‫܊‬໎ࠖऩ‫ۇ‬ಐຆɫ‫܊‬ɣƔକɣƒպФࠖऩ‫ۇ‬ಐຆɫ‫܊‬ɣƔକɣƒ1000 ऩɡɾʩೊࢰ
ॐɫਵɣƔࢭʉɣʇɣʂɾ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʊԪɸʪ‫܈‬෾ʱƒǄ‫܊‬໎ࠖऩ‫ۇ‬ಐຆɫ‫܊‬ɮƒɪʃƒҤࡰॣ‫ڌ‬ҟ޳ɪ
ʨ 7 ௪ෆෂǅʍʧɥʊৠʞ܏ʮɺʪɲʇʊʧʩƒɼʍࣰٛʊ܏ɥࣳ‫ׅ‬ʆʎԈ঱Ҽ੝ʱ๞ॣʆɬʪɪಇɪʱ฽
ਢɸʪƓφ౶ʊƒ‫܈‬෾ॐɫਕɧʫʏৠʞ܏ʮɺెౙʱ
ϔɬ՟ɲɸɫƒWide Learning ʎƒǄ߂ӴʩǅǄ˳˴ѓǅʇɣʂɾ‫ۄ‬ຆ଺ʉৠʞ܏ʮɺ໑֣ʍիࡱʱެʂɾ࢈๽
ࠬࢇʱ‫଼ݍ‬ѓɸʪɲʇʊʧʩƒ‫ࠄڇ‬՜෱ʍฆ੠ʊ੆ɶƒৠʞ܏ʮɺʱ‫܊‬ਤʊ໑֣ɸʪɲʇʱњఉʊɶʅɣʪƓ

3.2

෾଺ഷॐʇฆ੠ঙଜ

Ԉ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣഒউʍɾʠʍ෾଺ഷॐʱঙ
ଜɸʪƓʝɹƒߢ‫( ܗ‬௻ٚ௪) t ʆʈʍɮʨɣʍˬƪˋʆԈ঱ࠖॐɫਕљɶʅɣʪɪʱ೅ɸ޼ೀʇɶʅƒǄԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆ (spread rate, SR)ǅʱΤђʍʧɥʊଜձɸʪƓߢ‫ ܗ‬t ʍ૰‫ گ‬1 ࡕԨʍओ՜Ԉ঱ࠖॐ + σߢ‫ ܗ‬t ʍ૰ৈ 1 ࡕԨʍओ՜Ԉ঱ࠖॐ + σ(1)σ ʎഥӞѓʍɾʠʍˣ˻˳ƪˑʆɡʪƓච‫ۮ‬ʆʎƒ1 ௪ɡɾʩഥ‫ ן‬1 ऩʱљ‫ޟ‬ɸʪɲʇʇɶƒσ = 7 ʇɸʪƓɲʍԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆɫ 1 ʱࣣ҉ʪ࣪܏ʎԈ঱ࠖॐɫਕљ‫ۈإ‬ʊɡʩƒ1 ʱђ҉ʪ࣪܏ʎ‫ۈإࢭڄ‬ʊɡʪɲʇʱߪɸƓʝɾƒ௪ƧʍԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆɫ 1 ʧʩ੝ɬɣડʆʚʛφଜʆɡʪ࣪܏ƒɼʍՎԨʍओ՜Ԉ঱ࠖॐʎ޼ॐԪॐ଺ʊ
ਕљɶʅɣʪɲʇʱߪɶƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆɫђɫʪ࣪܏ʎ
ɼʍਕљˬƪˋɫԝʣɪʊʉʂʅɣʪɲʇʱߪɸƓ
COVID-19 ʎƒࠄ‫ݣ‬ʊԈ঱ɶʅɪʨౙࣇɶƒPCR ٫݀உʊʧʩԈ঱ɫӂ௳ɴʫʪʝʆʊ 1ƒ2 ࡕԨପ୩ɪ
ɪʪʇ‫ڊ‬ʮʫʅɣʪƓʃʝʩƒɡʪ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςɫѕʨɪʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʱҟ޳ɶɾ࣪܏ƒɼʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣɫओ՜Ԉ঱ࠖॐʍਕ
‫ڄ‬ʇɶʅ‫ڇ‬ʫʪʝʆʊ 1ƒ2 ࡕԨɪɪʪɲʇɫ฽৳ɴʫ
ʪƓHunter ʨʍഒউʆʎƒԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʇʍԪໞɫɡ
ʪʇɴʫʪ߀‫ݼ‬ʆʡƒɼʍԪໞɫ‫ڇ‬ʫʪʝʆʊ 2 ࡕԨɪɪʪɲʇʱߪɶʅɣʪ [4]ƓIslam ʨʎƒԈ঱ࠖॐʱ฽ਢɸʪ˴˙˽ʊɩɣʅƒ߀‫ݼ‬ҟ޳‫گ‬ʍ 7 ௪Ԩʱ߀‫ݼ‬ࠄ߀ৈʇɶʅΑʂʅɣʪ [6]Ɠච‫ۮ‬ʆʎƒ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬ѢɫSR(t) =

‫ڇ‬ʫʪʝʆʊ๗ɸʪՎԨʱ۵ຖɶƒߢ‫ ܗ‬t ʇɼʍ 14 ௪‫( گ‬t + 14days) ʍԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆʍಐ (spread rate ratio,
SRR) ʱΤђʍʧɥʊଜձɸʪƓ

SRR(t) =SR(t + 14days)
SR(t)

(2)

ɲʍԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆʍಐɫ 1 ʱђ҉ʪ࣪܏ƒԈ঱ࠖॐʍਕљ‫ۈإ‬ɫԝ໾ɶʅɣʪƒਕљ‫ۈإ‬ɪʨ‫ۈإࢭڄ‬ʊ୎ɷʅɣʪƒ‫ۈإࢭڄ‬ɫљਤɶʅɣʪƒʍɣɹʫɪʊɡɾʪƓ
Wide Learning ɫ੆ࣛʇɸʪฆ੠ʎഒ຾ฆ੠ʆɡʪ
ɾʠƒ෾଺ഷॐʱԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍ๞ॣʍ२ಇʇɸʪƓච‫ۮ‬ʆʎƒҺ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʍԈ঱Ҽ੝ՎԨௐʆ 4 ௪ɳʇʊՂࢀ
௪ʱঙଜɶƒҺՂࢀ௪ʊɩɰʪ SRR ʍડɫ 0.5 ෆෂʆɡʪ࣪܏ʱǄԈ঱Ҽ੝ʱ๞ॣɶʅɣʪǅʇ౧છɶʅ९
ແʇɶʅΑɣƒ0.5 Τࣣʆɡʪ࣪܏ʱೱແʇɶʅΑɥƓʃʝʩƒ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʇՂࢀ௪ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɳʇʊ 1 ʃʍߚແ (௬ອ˙ƪˑ) ʱ‫ݴ‬ʪƓҺ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʍԈ঱Ҽ੝ՎԨʎƒຽ‫ك‬Ԉ঱ࠖॐɫ 30 ऩʱ૨ɧɾ௪ʱҟ޳௪ʇɶƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆɫ 1 ෆෂʍ௪ɫ 7 ௪਩ɮ௪ʱࡊນ௪ʇɸʪƓɾɿɶƒ˨˻ˊ˽ʍʧɥʊƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍ๞ॣɫ‫ۄ‬ɪɹ૫Վѓɸʪ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʡɡʪɾʠƒՎԨɫ 50 ௪ʱ૨ɧʪ࣪܏
ʎƒҟ޳௪ɪʨ 50 ௪‫گ‬ʱࡊນ௪ʇɸʪ4 ƓʝɾƒՂࢀ௪ʍߢ୐ʆԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆɫ 1.0 ෆෂʇʉʪߚແʎƒ९ແƒೱແʍɣɹʫʊʡ԰ʠɹƒ࢜ҤɸʪƓɡʪ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʍԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆʍഷஞʍແʱऺ 1 ʊߪɸƓԈ঱Ҽ੝ՎԨʍࢉՎʎԈ঱ࠖॐɫ޼ॐԪॐ଺ʊਕљɸʪɾʠƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆʎ‫܊‬ɣડʆीζɸʪƓɼʍ‫گ‬ƒ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ʣ‫ීܙ‬ʍί߳ƒॲӜˋˑʶ˽ʍഷѓஉʊʧʩƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆʎକђɶƒʣɫʅƒ1.0 ʱђ҉ʂʅओ՜Ԉ঱ࠖॐʎ‫ࢭڄ‬ʊ୎ɷʪƓɡʪପ୩ओ՜Ԉ঱ࠖॐɫࢭʉɮ
ʉʪʇ‫ࢭڄ‬ʍˬƪˋʎԝʣɪʊʉʩƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆʎ 1.0ৈ‫گ‬ʇʉʪƓऺ 1 ʊɩɣʅƒt1 ɪʨ t6 ʎՂࢀ௪ʱ೅ɶƒҺՂࢀ௪ʱ޳୐ʇɸʪฒϏʍࡊ୐ʎ 2 ࡕԨ‫گ‬ʱ೅ɸƓʃʝʩƒฒϏʍࡊ୐ʇ޳୐ʍԈ঱Ҽ੝ຆʍಐɫƒɼʍՂࢀ௪ʊɩɰʪ SRR ʇʉʪƓɲʍແʍ࣪܏ƒt2 ƒt3 ƒt5ʱՂࢀ௪ʇɸʪߚແʱ९ແʇɶʅΑɣƒt1 ƒt4 ƒt6 ʱՂࢀ௪ʇɸʪߚແʱೱແʇɶʅΑɥƓ

3.3

˙ƪˑ࠿ࡘ

෾଺ഷॐʍડʍ‫ࡰޟ‬ʍɾʠƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍ௪Ƨʍ COVID19 ओ՜Ԉ঱ࠖॐʍ˙ƪˑʱƒOur World in Data ɫ‫ۂ‬ҟɶʅɣʪ˙ƪˑ5 ɪʨ࠿ࡘɶɾƓԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʊԪɸʪ‫܈‬෾ʱজ෢ഷॐʇɶʅূ
ଜɸʪʊɡɾʩƒ࡞๨ٰ֖ʆߪɴʫʅɣʪઢ‫ٵ‬ʱʡʇʊєজʱງʅʪƓ࡞๨ٰ֖ʊʎ Hunter ʨʍഒউ [4] ʇ
4 ฽ಡ૦݀ʆʎƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ՎԨɫ 50 ௪ʱ૨ɧʪ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʎƒ145̈
‫ ઺ܙ‬26̈‫ܙ‬ʆɡʂɾƓ
5 https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/
public/data経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第16回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #16)

感染拡大率 

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ʆʎƒHunter ʨʍഒউʊ܏ʮɺʅ೅ 1 ʊߪɸʧɥʊˋ
˃ƪ˽ʱঙଜɸʪƓHunter ʨʍഒউʍ੆ࣛʍԈ঱Ҽ੝߀‫ݼ‬ʎƒɣɹʫʡӽ‫( ܘ‬recommendation) ʆʎʉɮձ෕ (requirement) ʍ˾˫˽ʆɡʪɾʠƒɼʫΤҤʍԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʊʃɣʅʡƒձ෕ʍ˾˫˽Τࣣʊˋ˃ƪ˽ʱঙଜɸʪƓɾɿɶƒҤ‫ܙ‬ɪʨʍ௬‫ڌॣܙ‬ʎƒIslamʨ [6] ɫ޼ଶɸʪʧɥʊƒ߭‫ීܙ‬ʆʎʉɮҤ‫ܙ‬ऩʊ੆ɸʪ߀‫ݼ‬ʆɡʩƒɲʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ʎ਴‫ܙ‬ʊʡϾ‫׏‬ʱ฿ɧʪʡʍʆɡʪɾʠƒѼƧʍഒউʊɩɣʅʡ੆ࣛҤʇ
ɸʪƓ

経過日数

೅ 1: জ෢ഷॐʇɶʅ๸๑ɸʪ˙ƪˑ‫܈‬෾ऺ 1: Ԉ঱Ҽ੝ຆʍഷஞʍແ

Islam ʨʍഒউ [6] ɫɡʪƓHunter ʨʎ‫ڎ‬Ƨʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʇԈ঱ࠖॐɩʧʒ߄൸ࠖॐʍ๞ॣʍԪໞʱഒউɶʅɣʪφൣƒIslam ʨʎഉॐʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʍடߢࠄ߀ʣࠄ߀ࢇ࢘ʇԈ঱ࠖॐʍ๞ॣʍԪໞʱഒউɶʅɣʪƓච‫ۮ‬ʆʎ‫ڎ‬Ƨʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʇԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍԪໞʊુ෾ɸʪɲʇʇɶƒHunterʨʍഒউʊʧʪઢ‫ٵ‬ʱʡʇʊђ՝ʍєজʱງʅʪƓԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬‫ܙ‬Ɣણςற१єজ 1 (ӌۣപ݅): ࢉஉ‫׃‬σɪʨ‫܊‬உ‫׃‬σʝʆʍɸʘ
ʅʍ‫׃‬σՑԪʍപ݅ʎƒԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣɫɡʪєজ 2 (ϼ‫ז‬։߃): φ೼ʝɾʎɸʘʅʍ೜๗೜֎˥ˊ
˟ˋʍ։‫ז‬ʎƒԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣɫɡʪєজ 3 (ࡘ҇ॣ‫)ڌ‬: ‫଺ۂ‬ʝɾʎ߈଺ʍࡘ҇ʍ‫ॣ( ߃צ‬‫ڌ‬ऩॐʍνɣʎฆʮʉɣ) ʎƒԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣɫɡʪєজ 4 (Ҥࡰॣ‫)ڌ‬: ೜๗೜֎ʍҤࡰʍॣ‫ڌ‬ʎƒԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣɫʉɣєজ 2 ʊʃɣʅƒHunter ʨʍഒউʆʎƒ˾ˋ˚˻̅ʣˢƪஉʍφ೼ʍ˥ˊ˟ˋʍ։‫ז‬ʇƒɸʘʅʍ೜๗೜֎
˥ˊ˟ˋʍ։‫ז‬ʱ‫׶‬ലɶʅΑɣƒৈࠖʎԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʇԪໞɫɡʪɫƒ‫ࠖگ‬ʎԪໞɫʉɣʇɶʅɣʪƓɶɪɶƒɲʍ 2 ʃʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʎƒ˥ˊ˟ˋʍ։‫ז‬ʇɣɥԣ୐ʆ
ʎடɷ߀‫ݼ‬ʆɡʩƒ‫ࠖگ‬ʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʎৈࠖʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʱʧʩ‫ځ‬ɶɮɶɾʡʍʆɡʪƓච‫ۮ‬ʆʎƒɲʍ 2 ʃʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʱ‫׶‬ലɺɹƒφ೼ʝɾʎɸʘʅʍ೜๗೜֎˥ˊ˟ˋʍ։‫ז‬ʇɶʅΑɥƓ
ɲʫʨʍєজʊʡʇʄɬƒOxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) 6 ɪʨƒҺ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ࣳ‫ׅ‬ʊԪɸʪ˙ƪˑʱ࠿ࡘɸʪƓOxCGRT ʎƒҺ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ࣳ‫ׅ‬ʊʃɣʅƒɼʍ‫ځ‬ɶɴ (ˋ˃ƪ˽) ʱ
3 ઞҠɪʨ 5 ઞҠʍॐડʆ೅ɶʅɣʪɫƒѼƧʍഒউ
6 https://bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/
coronavirus-government-response-trackerɼʍ਴ӌۣപ݅ (ˋ˃ƪ˽ 3)ϼ‫ז‬։߃ (ˋ˃ƪ˽ 2 Τࣣ)ࡘ҇ॣ‫˃ˋ( ڌ‬ƪ˽ 4)Ҥࡰॣ‫˃ˋ( ڌ‬ƪ˽ 2 Τࣣ)‫˃ˋ( ߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬ƪ˽ 2)‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅ (ˋ˃ƪ˽ 2)‫ܙ‬ௐζஞॣ‫˃ˋ( ڌ‬ƪ˽ 2)
1 ऩɡɾʩ GDP‫܊‬໎ࠖ (65 ‫ݖ‬Τࣣ) ऩ‫ۇ‬ಐഥ‫࠹ן‬෡
Ҥ‫ܙ‬ɪʨʍທ‫ࠖۼ‬ॐ୤޸೼ऩ‫ۇ‬ಐպФࠖऩ‫ۇ‬ಐ஌௮ೊቌԇຆ
BCG ฽ඍখ࠱࠷णຆ
ऩ‫ۇ‬෋୩
1000 ऩɡɾʩೊࢰॐ
1000 ऩɡɾʩο޹ॐ֛฿ࢊமࠖಐ
‫י‬୩೗‫ܪ‬ຆࠬরɣԖֻ೩֊ຆ
ϕຟुঙಡ೩֊ຆ
ђु࢈๽ঙಡ೩֊ຆ
‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍʺ˼ʴഒ຾

ʝɾƒHunter ʨʎƒ˺ƪ˿˕ˣʍ 30̈‫ܙ‬ʱ੆ࣛʊԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣʍഒউʱ‫ۼ‬ʂʅɣʪɫƒච‫ۮ‬ʆʎ˺ƪ˿˕ˣʊ‫ڌ‬ଜɺɹʊ˙ƪˑʱ࠿ࡘɸʪƓɼʍਜ਼ʮʩ
ʊƒࣣࡲʍєজʇѼƧʍഒউٗѢʍಐӇʍɾʠƒWorldBank ɫঙଜɸʪ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍʺ˼ʴഒ຾7 ʱজ෢ഷॐʇ
ɶʅૻљɸʪƓHunter ʨʍഒউ੆ࣛʍ˺ƪ˿˕ˣ 30̈‫ܙ‬ʎƒWorld Bank ʍʺ˼ʴഒ຾ʊɩɰʪǄEurope andCentral AsiaǅʊਂஆɸʪƓ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςற१ʊԪɸʪ‫܈‬෾ʎƒNotari ʨʍഒউ [10]ʆԈ঱Ҽ੝ˬƪˋʇਂԪɫɡʪʇɴʫʅɣʪ‫܈‬෾ʱ઺ऐʊƒWorld Bank ɫ‫ۂ‬ҟɸʪ˙ƪˑ8 ɪʨূଜɸʪƓѼƧʍഒউʆΑɥ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςற१ʊԪɸʪ‫܈‬෾ʱ೅ 1 ʊߪɸƓ

7 https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups
8 https://datatopics.worldbank.org/
universal-health-coverage/coronavirus

経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第16回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #16)

3.4

জ෢ഷॐʍ຃‫ޚ‬ѓɩʧʒ 2 ડѓҺԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ࣳ‫ׅ‬ʊԪɸʪ‫܈‬෾ʊʃɣʅƒђ՝ʍ 2 ࠱຾ʍজ෢ഷॐʱ๑ίɸʪƓࠄ߀อ෗: Ղࢀ௪ʍߢ୐ʆஆҮʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʱࠄ߀ɶʅɣʪ
ɪಇɪ (True/False)‫ؼ‬ѷ௪ॐ: Ղࢀ௪ʍߢ୐ʆஆҮʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʱҟ޳ɶʅѕ௪‫ؼ‬ѷɶʅɣʪɪ (४ॐડ)߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣɫɡʪʇɸʫʏƒɼʫʎ߀‫ݼ‬ҟ޳ɪʨʍ‫ؼ‬ѷ௪ॐɫࢭʉɣɥʀʊ SRR ʍડʍഷஞʇɶʅ‫ڇ‬ʫʪʇɣɥєଜʍʡʇƒ‫ؼ‬ѷ௪ॐʎ 7 ௪ʇ 14 ௪ʍ 2̈ࢊʱ᪸ડʇɶʅ຃‫ޚ‬ѓɶƒ2 ડѓɸʪƓʃʝʩƒ7 ௪Τђɪಇɪƒ8 ௪Τࣣɪಇɪƒ14 ௪Τђɪಇɪƒ15 ௪Τࣣɪಇ
ɪʍ 4 ʃʍজ෢ഷॐʊഒɰʨʫʪƓॐડ˙ƪˑʆɡʪҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςற१ʊԪɸʪ‫܈‬෾ʎƒɡʪ᪸ડʆ˙ƪˑࡘ܏ʱ 2 ഒӘɶɾ࣪܏ʍɼʫɽʫʍ˙ƪˑࡘ܏ʍʺ̅˚˿˦ƪʍљࡥഥ‫ן‬ɫ‫ࢬݍ‬ʇʉʪʇɬʍ᪸
ડʆ຃‫ޚ‬ѓɸʪƓʃʝʩƒɡʪ᪸ડʆ˙ƪˑࡘ܏ɫ A ʇ
B ʍ 2 ʃʍࡘ܏ʊഒӘɴʫʪʇɬƒђ՝ʍ߲ʆ‫ࡰޟ‬ɸʪ
H ʍડɫ‫ࢬݍ‬ʇʉʪ᪸ડʆ຃‫ޚ‬ѓɸʪ (P1 (A)ƒP0 (A)ʎɼʫɽʫࡘ܏ A ʍ઺ʍ९ແƒೱແʍӘ܏ʱ೅ɸ)Ɠ

H(A)

=

−P1 (A) log P1 (A) − P0 (A) log P0 (A)

H(B)

=

H

=

−P1 (B) log P1 (B) − P0 (B) log P0 (B)|A||B|
H(A) +
H(B) (3)|A| + |B|
|A| + |B|຃‫ޚ‬ѓʎφ୩ɿɰࠄ‫ۼ‬ɸʪƓʃʝʩƒҺ‫܈‬෾ʱ 2 ഒӘɶƒ2 ડѓɸʪƓʽ˘ˆ˼ƪ˙ƪˑʆɡʪ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍʺ˼ʴഒ຾ʎƒ
one-hot ೅‫ڇ‬ʊഷԋɸʪɲʇʊʧʩ 2 ડѓɸʪƓ

4

ഒউٗѢ

4.1

Wide Learning ๑௬ອ˙ƪˑҩ๗ओ՜Ԉ঱ࠖॐƒҺ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʍԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫߀ࠄݼ‬ࣳ‫ׅ‬ƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʊԪɸʪ˙ƪˑʎƒ2020 ௻ 8
ٚ 6 ௪ʊ࠿ࡘɶɾƓҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍ SRR ʍડʣԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʊԪɸʪজ෢ഷॐʍડʱٔଜɸʪ‫ݣ‬ʍՂࢀ௪ʎƒ2020 ௻ 1 ٚ 1 ௪ɪʨ 7 ٚ 11 ௪ʝʆʍԨʆ 4 ௪ɳʇʊঙଜɶɾƓ˙ƪˑˇʶˌʎ 1,002 ٛ (‫ܙ‬Ɣણςॐʎ145)ƒɼʍɥʀ९ແʎ 336 ٛ (९ແʍӘ܏ʎต 33.5%)ʇʉʂɾƓ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍʺ˼ʴഒ຾ʱ˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴʊ‫ڌ‬ଜɸʪʇƒ˙ƪˑˇʶˌʎ 306 ٛƒɼʍɥʀ९ແʎ 142 ٛ (९ແʍӘ܏ʎต 46.4%) ʇʉʂɾƓ

4.2

Ԉ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬અஶʍ‫ۄ‬ѢʊԪɸʪєজʍӂ௳ʱ૾ɷɾ KC ‫ݔ‬๑Ղࢀʍঙଜ

Wide Learning ʎƒ௬ອ˙ƪˑ઺ʍɡʨʥʪজ෢ഷ
ॐʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʍ઺ɪʨƒԈ঱Ҽ੝ʱ๞ॣʆɬʪɪಇ
ɪʇֽɮԪໞɸʪʡʍʱࡥ๗ʉєজ (KC) ʇɶʅ໑֣
ɸʪƓචছʆʎƒਫ਼ 3.3 ছʆງʅɾƒԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬ѢʊԪɸʪ 4 ʃʍєজʍӂ௳ʱ૾ɶʅƒৠʞ܏ʮɺʍ઺ɪʨ KC ʇɶʅ‫ݔ‬๑ɸʪՂࢀʱঙଜɸʪƓච‫ۮ‬ʆʎƒҺৠʞ܏ʮɺʇԈ঱Ҽ੝ʱ๞ॣʆɬʪɪ
ಇɪʍԨʍԪໞʍֽɴʱ೅ɸ޼ೀʇɶʅƒ९՜ѓਂ‫ک‬࣮൙ສʇӂऊ୩ʱ๸๑ɶƒ˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴʆɡʪɲʇʇҺ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ؼ‬ѷ௪ॐʊԪɸʪজ෢ഷॐʍৠʞ
܏ʮɺʍ९՜ѓਂ‫࣮ک‬൙ສʱʡʇʊ KC ʇɶʅ‫ݔ‬๑ɸʪɪʈɥɪʍՂࢀʱঙଜɸʪƓ९՜ѓਂ‫࣮ک‬൙ສʇɶʅƒΤђʍ߲ʆ‫ޟك‬ɴʫʪ೜ӂଜ‫ؤ‬ॐʱ๸๑ɸʪƓ
NMI(L|C) =I(L; C)
H(L) − H(L|C)
=
H(L)
H(L)

(4)

L ʎ९ແƔೱແʱ೅ɸഷॐʱƒC ʎુ෾ɸʪৠʞ܏ʮ
ɺʊҮஆɸʪɪಇɪʱ೅ɸഷॐʆɡʩƒI(L; C) ʎਂ‫ک‬࣮൙ສʱƒH(L) ʎʺ̅˚˿˦ƪʱ೅ɸƓ९՜ѓਂ‫࣮ک‬൙ສʎƒુ෾ɸʪৠʞ܏ʮɺʊҮஆɸʪɪಇɪɫƒ९ແƔೱແʍ‫׶‬ലʇʈʍପ୩Ԫໞɫɡʪɪʱ೅ɸƓφൣƒӂऊ୩ʎƒુ෾ɸʪৠʞ܏ʮɺʊҮஆɸʪ˙ƪˑʍɥʀƒഒ຾˻˫˽ɫৠʞ܏ʮɺʍ˻˫˽ʇφફɸʪ˙ƪˑʍӘ܏ʱ೅ɸƓɸʉʮʀƒ˻˫˽ɫ۶ଜʍৠʞ܏ʮɺ (Ԉ঱Ҽ੝ʱ๞ॣɸʪɲʇʱߪɸৠʞ܏ʮɺ) ʍ࣪܏ʎ९ແʍӘ܏ʱ೅ɶƒ˻˫˽ɫಇଜʍৠʞ܏ʮɺ (Ԉ঱Ҽ੝ʱ๞ॣɶʉɣɲʇʱߪɸৠʞ܏ʮɺ) ʍ࣪܏ʎೱແʍӘ܏ʱ೅ɸƓʺ˼ʴɫ˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴʆɡʪɲʇʇԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ؼ‬ѷ௪ॐɫ 7 ௪Τௐʆɡʪɲʇʍৠʞ
܏ʮɺʍ९՜ѓਂ‫࣮ک‬൙ສʇӂऊ୩ʱ೅ 2 ʊߪɸ (ӂऊ୩ʍ໑ʍӛ‫ږ‬ௐʍॐડʎƒ९ແƒೱແʍ˙ƪˑॐʱ೅ɸ)Ɠɲʫʨʎɸʘʅ˻˫˽ɫ۶ଜʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʆɡ
ʩƒӂऊ୩ʱ‫ٵ‬ʪʇƒ‫߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬ʍ߀‫ݼ‬ɫԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʇ‫ݍ‬ʡԪໞɫֽɮƒӌۣപ݅ƒϼ‫ז‬։߃ƒࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬ƒҤࡰॣ‫ڌ‬ƒ‫ܙ‬ௐζஞॣ‫ڌ‬ʝʆʎƒ˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴʍ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʊԪɸʪɸʘʅʍ˙ƪˑʊতʠʪ९
ແʍӘ܏ (ต 46.4%) ʧʩ‫܊‬ɮƒԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʇʍԪໞ
ɫ‫ٵ‬ʨʫʪƓҤࡰॣ‫ڌ‬ʡ๞ॣʇʍԪໞɫɡʪʇɣɥٗ
ѢʎƒHunter ʨʍഒউٗѢ (ਫ਼ 3.3 ছʍєজ 4) ʇʎεʉʪٗѢʆɡʪƓφൣƒ‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅ʍ९՜ѓਂ‫࣮ک‬൙ສʎƒ਴ʍ 6 ʃʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʇಐӇɶʅ‫י‬ઐʊକɮƒӂऊ୩ʡ˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴʍ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʊԪɸʪɸʘʅʍ˙ƪˑʊতʠʪ९ແʍӘ܏ʧʩକɣɲʇɪʨƒԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʇʍԪໞʎࠧɣʇीଜɴʫʪƓɲʍٗѢʱகʝɧƒච‫ۮ‬ʆʎƒ˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴʍ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʆɡʪɲʇʇ‫ܙ‬ௐζஞॣ‫ڌ‬ʍ‫ؼ‬ѷ௪ॐɫ

経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第16回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #16)

೅ 3: ‫י‬୩೗‫ܪ‬ຆʇ߀‫ݼ‬ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉʪ KC

೅ 2: ˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴʍ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʇҺ߀‫ݼ‬ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʍ९՜ѓਂ‫࣮ک‬൙ສʇӂऊ୩ৠʞ܏ʮɺ (˻˫˽: ۶ଜ)˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴ∧ ‫߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7
˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴ∧ ϼ‫ז‬։߃௪ॐ ≤ 7
˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴ∧ ӌۣപ݅௪ॐ ≤ 7
˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴ∧ ࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7
˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴ∧ Ҥࡰॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7
˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴ∧ ‫ܙ‬ௐζஞॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7
˺ƪ˿˕ˣƔ઺гʴˊʴ∧ ‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅௪ॐ ≤ 7

NMI
0.02550.01630.01490.01270.01210.00770.00037 ௪Τђʆɡʪɲʇʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʍ९՜ѓਂ‫࣮ک‬൙ສ
(0.0077) ʱƒKC ʇɶʅ‫ݔ‬๑ɸʪɪʈɥɪʍՂࢀʇɶ
ʅঙଜɸʪƓʝɾƒজ෢ഷॐʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʎ‫ݍ‬੝ 4 ʃ
ʝʆ (ɾɿɶƒ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍʺ˼ʴഒ຾ʊԪɸʪഷॐʱ԰
ʝʉɣ࣪܏ʎ‫ݍ‬੝ 3 ʃʝʆ) ʇɸʪƓɼʍٗѢƒ49,274
ٛʍৠʞ܏ʮɺ (˻˫˽ɫ۶ଜʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʎ 19,268ٛƒಇଜʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʎ 30,006 ٛ) ɫ KC ʇɶʅ‫ݔ‬๑ɴʫɾƓɲʫʎƒɸʘʅʍৠʞ܏ʮɺ (311,613 ٛ) ʍɥʀƒ९՜ѓਂ‫࣮ک‬൙ສʍࣣΦต 15.8%ʊɡɾʪƓ

4.3

KC (˻˫˽: ۶ଜ)‫י‬୩೗‫ܪ‬ຆ > 1.25
∧ ˇˡ˻Τ௜ʴ˧˼ʽ∧ ‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅ࠄ߀ʉɶ∧ ‫߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7‫י‬୩೗‫ܪ‬ຆ > 1.25
∧ ഥ‫࠹ן‬෡ > 78.8
∧ ‫߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7
KC (˻˫˽: ಇଜ)‫י‬୩೗‫ܪ‬ຆ > 1.25
∧ ೊࢰॐ ≤ 1.60
∧ ࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7‫י‬୩೗‫ܪ‬ຆ > 1.25
∧ Ҥ‫ܙ‬ऩທ‫ࠖۼ‬ॐ ≤ 5265000∧ ࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7

ӂऊ୩
0.720
(36, 14)0.594(41, 28)0.633(31, 18)0.586(34, 24)0.574(35, 26)0.537(29, 25)0.391(9, 14)‫ܙ‬Ɣણςற१ʱ۵ຖɶɾԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬ѢʊԪɸʪєজʍౙ‫ٵ‬

ਫ਼ 4.2 ছʆ‫ݔ‬๑ɴʫɾ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʊԪɸʪজ෢ഷ
ॐʇԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʊԪɸʪজ෢ഷॐʍৠʞ܏ʮɺ
ɪʨʉʪ KC ʍ઺ɪʨƒ‫י‬୩೗‫ܪ‬ຆʇ߀‫ݼ‬ʍৠʞ܏ʮ
ɺɪʨʉʪʡʍʍແʱ೅ 3 ʊߪɸƓφ౶ʊƒ೗‫ܪ‬ৰʍऩƧʍॲӜԖֻʎ·ɮƒԈ঱฽ඍʍୀଞɫ௟ɶɣɾʠƒ‫י‬୩ʍ೗‫ܪ‬ৰʍऩ‫ۇ‬ɫਵɣ‫ܙ‬ƔણςʆʎԈ঱Ҽ੝ʱ๞ॣɸʪɲʇɫ௟ɶɣɲʇɫ฽৳ɴʫʪƓɶɪɶƒ೅ 3ʍʇɩʩƒ‫י‬୩೗‫ܪ‬ຆɫ 1.25%ʱ૨ɧʪ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʊɩɣʅƒ1000 ऩɡɾʩೊࢰॐɫ 1.60 Τђʍ࣪܏ʣҤ‫ܙ‬ऩທ‫ࠖۼ‬ॐɫ 5,265,000 ऩΤђʍ࣪܏ƒɲʫʨʍற१ʇ
ࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉʪ KC ʎԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍ๞ॣʱಇଜɸʪʡʍʆɡʪφൣƒˇˡ˻Τ௜ʴ˧˼ʽʆ‫ڼ‬૾ՑԪപ݅ʱࠄ߀ɶʅɣʉɣ࣪܏ʣƒഥ‫࠹ן‬෡ɫ 78.7
‫ݖ‬ʧʩ‫܊‬ɣ࣪܏ʎƒɲʫʨʇ‫߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬ʍৠʞ܏ʮ
ɺɪʨʉʪ KC ɫԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍ๞ॣʱ۶ଜɸʪʡʍʆɡ
ʩƒ‫߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬ʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʇԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍ๞ॣʍԨʊԪໞ
ɫ‫ٵ‬ʨʫʪƓѼƧʍഒউʍ੆ࣛʇɶʅɣʪ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ઺ʆƒ௪චɫࠄ߀ɶɾʡʍʎӌۣപ݅ʍʞʆɡʩƒɼʍ਴ʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʎࠄ߀ɶʅɣʉɣƓ௪චʆɲʫʨʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʱࠄ߀ɶɾ࣪܏ƒɼʍ‫ۄ‬ѢʎՎ੊ʆɬʪɿʬɥɪƓʝɾƒ௪චʆࠄ߀ɶɾ

NMI
0.0086ӂऊ୩
1.000(5, 0)

0.00861.000(5, 0)

NMI
0.0110ӂऊ୩
1.000(0, 17)0.01001.000(0, 16)

ӌۣപ݅ʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʎƒ‫ۄ‬ѢɫՎ੊ʆɬʪʡʍɿʂɾɿʬ
ɥɪƓɼʫʱӂ௳ɸʪɾʠƒҺ߀‫ݼ‬ʇ௪චʍற१ʍৠ
ʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉʪ KC ʱ૦݀ɶɾƓ߀‫ݼ‬ɳʇʊƒɼʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ؼ‬ѷ௪ॐɫ 7 ௪Τௐʆɡʪɲʇʇ௪චʍற१ʍ
ৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉʪ KC ʍॐʱ೅ 4 ʊߪɸƓɣɹʫʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʊʃɣʅʡ۶ଜʱ೅ɸ KC ɫਮ‫ݥ‬ɸʪφൣƒಇଜʱ೅ɸ KC ʎࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬ʇ௪චʍற१ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨ
ʉʪʡʍɫ 2 ٛɡʪʍʞʆɡʂɾƓ೅ 5 ʊƒҺ߀‫ݼ‬ʇ௪චʍற१ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉʪ KC ʍɥʀƒ९՜ѓਂ‫࣮ک‬൙ສɫ‫ݍ‬੝ʍʡʍʱߪɸƓ‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅ΤҤʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʇ௪චʍற१ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉʪ KC ʍ઺ʊʎƒ९՜ѓਂ‫࣮ک‬൙ສʇӂऊ୩ʍຜൣɫ‫܊‬ɣƒɸʉʮʀԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍ२ಇʇʍԪໞʍֽɣ KC ɫਮ‫ݥ‬ɶƒ௪චʆʎɲʫʨʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ʊʧʪԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣɫࡰʪњఉ१ɫɡʪƓφൣƒ‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅ʇ௪චʍற१
ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉʪ KC ʎࢭʉɣࣣʊƒ९՜ѓਂ‫ک‬࣮൙ສʎࢬɴɮƒ਴ʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʇಐӇɶʅ௪චʆʍԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʇʍԪໞɫɡʪɲʇʱߪɸ֢ܲɫࢭʉɣɲʇɫ
ഒɪʪƓ೅ 4: ߀‫ݼ‬ʇ௪චʍற१ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉʪ KC ʍॐ߀‫ݼ‬‫߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7ϼ‫ז‬։߃௪ॐ ≤ 7ӌۣപ݅௪ॐ ≤ 7ࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7Ҥࡰॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7‫ܙ‬ௐζஞॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅௪ॐ ≤ 7

5

۶ଜ
458
342
306
309
355
281
37

ಇଜ
0
0
0
2
0
0
0

ʟɸʒ

ච‫ۮ‬ʆʎƒೡ޲૾ٰ֖ࢊʍҟౙիࡱǄWide Learningǅ
ʱ๸๑ɶƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍ COVID-19 Ԉ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ࣳ‫ׅ‬ʇҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺʇԈ঱Ҽ

経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第16回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #16)

೅ 5: ߀‫ݼ‬ʇ௪චʍற१ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉʪ KC ʍແ
KC (˻˫˽: ۶ଜ)‫܊‬໎ࠖऩ‫ۇ‬ಐ > 8.48
∧ Ҥ‫ܙ‬ऩທ‫ࠖۼ‬ॐ > 5265000∧ ‫߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7ഥ‫࠹ן‬෡ > 78.8
∧ ϼ‫ז‬։߃௪ॐ ≤ 7
ೊࢰॐ > 1.60
∧ ഥ‫࠹ן‬෡ > 78.8
∧ ӌۣപ݅௪ॐ ≤ 7‫܊‬໎ࠖऩ‫ۇ‬ಐ > 8.48
∧ GDP/ऩ > 19071∧ ࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7ऩ‫ۇ‬෋୩ > 66.9
∧ ђु࢈๽೩֊ຆ > 64.4
∧ Ҥࡰॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7պФࠖऩ‫ۇ‬ಐ > 14.1
∧ GDP/ऩ > 19071∧ ‫ܙ‬ௐζஞॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7୼ʴˊʴƔਸ਼ഥ๎∧ ‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅௪ॐ ≤ 7
KC (˻˫˽: ಇଜ)୤޸೼ऩ‫ۇ‬ಐ > 45.0
∧ ‫ܙ‬ௐζஞॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ > 14
∧ ࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬௪ॐ ≤ 7

NMI
0.0560ӂऊ୩
0.898(44, 5)0.03430.78(39, 11)0.795(31, 8)0.02830.03270.810(34, 8)0.02980.755(37, 12)0.03090.833(30, 6)0.00861.000(5, 0)
ӂऊ୩
1.000(0, 13)NMI
0.0084੝ʍ๞ॣʇʍԪໞʱ٫ࡰɶƒ࡞๨ʍԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣഒউʍٰ֖ʆமʨʫɾઢ‫ٵ‬ʇಐӇɸʪʇʇʡʊƒҺ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍற१ʱ۵ຖɶɾԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬ѢʊԪɸʪओɾʉєজʱଥߪɶɾƓ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςற१ʱ۵ຖɶʉɣƒԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣ߀‫ݼ‬અஶʆʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣʊʃɣʅʎƒ‫߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬ʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ʎԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʇʍԪໞɫֽɮƒϼ‫ז‬։߃ƒӌۣപ݅ƒࡘ҇ॣ‫ڌ‬ƒҤࡰॣ‫ڌ‬ƒ‫ܙ‬ௐζஞॣ‫ڌ‬ʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ʡԪໞ
ɫ‫ٵ‬ʨʫɾφൣƒ‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅ʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʍࠄ߀ʊʃɣʅ
ʎԪໞɫ‫ٵ‬ʨʫʉɪʂɾƓ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςற१ʱ۵ຖɶɾ߀
‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣʍഒউʆʎƒ‫י‬୩೗‫ܪ‬ຆɫ‫܊‬ɣ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʆʡƒˇˡ˻Τ௜ʴ˧˼ʽʍ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʣഥ‫࠹ן‬෡ʍ‫܊‬ɣ‫ܙ‬Ɣણςʍ࣪܏ƒɲʫʨʇ‫߃઺ߚۼִۂ‬ʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉ
ʪ KC ʇԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍ२ಇʊԪໞɫ‫ٵ‬ʨʫɾƓɴʨʊƒҺ߀‫ݼ‬ʇ௪චʍற१ʇʍৠʞ܏ʮɺɪʨʉʪ KC
ʱ૦݀ɸʪʇƒ௪චʆʎɸʘʅʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʊʃɣʅԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣɫࡰʪњఉ१ɫɡʪɫƒ‫૾ڼ‬ՑԪപ݅ʎ
਴ʍ߀‫ݼ‬ʊಐʘʅԈ঱Ҽ੝๞ॣʍ‫ۄ‬Ѣɫɡʪɲʇʱߪ
ɸ֢ܲɫࢭʉɣɲʇɫഒɪʂɾƓѼƧʍഒউʎ‫ࢉݍ‬ʍԈ঱Ҽ੝ߢՎʱ੆ࣛʊ‫ۼ‬ʂʅɣʪɫƒɲʍഒউʆமʨʫɾєজɫԈ঱Ҽ੝ʍਫ਼ 2 ఔƒਫ਼
3 ఔʆʡ२ງɸʪɪƒഒউɸʪ಴๗ɫɡʪƓʝɾƒ‫ܩ‬҉ʍഒউʆʎƒҺ߀‫ݼ‬ʍ‫ځ‬ɶɴʍഷѓʣ߀‫ࡊݼ‬ນʍϾ‫׏‬ʱ۵ຖɶʅɣʉɣƓɲʍϾ‫׏‬ʱ۵ຖɶɾഒউʍ٫ஒ
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経営課題にAIを!ビジネスインフォマティクス研究会 (第16回)
JSAI Special Interest Group on Business Informatics (SIG-BI #16)

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