An All-In climate strategy
can cut U.S. emissions by50% by 2030

Working Paper: An All-In climate strategy can cut U.S. emissions by 50% by 2030
Author Team:Nate Hultman,1 Kevin Kennedy,2 Leon Clarke,1 Haewon McJeon,1 Tom Cyrs,2 John O’Neill,1 Alicia Zhao,1Jenna Behrendt,1 Wendy Jaglom,3 Todd McGarvey,1 John Feldmann,2 Ryna Cui,1 Kowan O’Keefe1

Key Messages:
Updated analysis shows that comprehensive all-of society strategy for action on climatechange can deliver U.S. GHG emissions reductions of 50% below 2005 levels by2030. This effort would be based on actions from the federal government, cities, states,businesses, and others, across all sectors and greenhouse gases, and would put the U.S.
on a trajectory consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5ºC.
The electricity and transportation sectors are the biggest contributors to overall reductions
by 2030—representing 80% of all reductions. Actions in other sectors are essential toachieve high levels of action by 2030 and to set up a longer-term pathway toward a net
zero 2050 target.
This analysis focuses on the integration of subnational actions into an overall U.S. nationalclimate strategy. Over the last four years, a broad subnational coalition has sustained
climate progress in the United States, providing a strong foundation for achieving highambition goals with action from the Biden administration and Congress. Combining newfederal action with continued and expanded non-federal action across the country cansupport more robust long-term outcomes.

With other key countries stepping up and ambitious U.S. action now within reach, 2021 can be ayear of global action to address the climate crisis. Countries around the world are now re-evaluating
their national climate strategies toward reaching scientifically informed global goals under the ParisAgreement. Actors from all of society are also stepping up to advance climate action. States, cities,
and regions are scoping new opportunities for climate action and delivering on a burgeoning suiteof existing climate commitments to support new jobs and the transformation of their economies.
Businesses and investors are offering new commitments for net zero targets, climate finance,and reducing climate risks. Recent developments across all of these areas could support atransformational step toward getting the world on a trajectory to limit warming to 1.5ºC.
Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland
World Resources Institute3
Rocky Mountain Institute122|

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In this context, a global effort on the scale necessary to achieve this goal is now within reach—andour shared global success in this effort will also depend on strong action from the United States.
A comprehensive, ambitious, and robust U.S. climate strategy can both deliver a transformed,cleaner and healthier United States as well as support enhanced global action to solve the climatecrisis. The foundation for ambitious U.S. climate action has already been laid through the actions
and commitments of a broad and robust coalition of non-federal climate actors.1 States, cities,businesses, investors, tribal groups, communities of faith, cultural institutions, universities, andmany more—representing nearly 70% of U.S. GDP and equivalent to the world’s second largest
economy—have delivered a wave of new and increasingly ambitious policies and long-term
commitments. These actors are geographically diverse and bipartisan. And they reflect a growinginterest in driving forward toward a clean and healthy economy in ways that reflect the support oftheir constituents and members and are targeted to deliver real and immediate benefits for jobs,
economic growth, and wellbeing—and in doing so, also help contribute to an overall reduction in
U.S. emissions.
With the election of climate friendly leadership in the Executive Branch and Congress, the U.S.
federal government is now stepping up to embrace an all-of-government approach to climate
action, and to layer a set of new federally driven policies on top of those already in place due tosubnational actions. The America Is All In coalition has demonstrated effective climate actions
among its members, built broad-based support for ambitious climate policies, and offers the ability
to accelerate and bolster the efforts of the federal government. A comprehensive strategy that links
actions across all actors offers a number of enhancements to a simple federally driven strategy:
Bottom-up action has already raised—and can continue to boost—the overall level ofdeployment of clean technologies and enhanced land sector strategies, thereby providing
a stepped-up basis for additional federal action.
Actions taken in diverse jurisdictions provide solutions that are politically rooted with homegrown strategies and responsive to the concerns and needs of local and state communities.
Policy levers differ across levels of government and organization type, allowing forcomplementary actions that are mutually reinforcing. For example, federal actions mightadvance tax credits for EVs, state actions might support expanding EV charging infrastructure,and local actions could expand EV fleet utilization.
Over time, different jurisdictions, businesses, organizations, and the federal government will
likely be in positions to advance policy at different moments. A diversified strategy that roots
policies across these elements can support a more consistent long-term strategy that could
also be more durable through election cycles and shifting political winds.

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These enhancements from an All In strategy argue strongly for integrating across actors and indoing so, can expand opportunities and raise confidence in an ambitious U.S. climate target.
Building on the methodology developed over recent years,2,3,4,5 we evaluated what an integrated,“all in” strategy could deliver for U.S. emissions reductions. In this analysis, we updated fromearlier assessments6 a number of assumptions and key policies with significant impacts on overall
emissions trajectories, and also refreshed our input assumptions based on new economic growthtrajectories, the impact of COVID, and new information on technology costs and projections offossil fuel prices. Modeling strategy, assumptions, and policies assessed are described below
and in the online technical appendix available at https://www.americaisallin.com/reports-news/.
This analysis shows that a comprehensive, “all in” national climate strategy, led by the federal
government in full partnership with leaders across all levels of government and all of society,can deliver U.S. emissions reductions of 50% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels.

Figure 1: U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2030
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Electricity CO2

Transportation CO2

Industry CO2

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Buildings CO2

Other CO2

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2030

LULUCFTable: Summary of Key Policies included in All-In Analysis

PolicyNon-Federal 2030 Assumptions

Federal 2030 Assumptions*Clean Electricity
Generation

Leading states achieve 60% renewable generation
by 2030. States prevent some at-risk nuclear plantsfrom retiring.

Federal clean electricity standard and tax incentives
drive clean electricity generation to 77% by 2030, withrenewables at 49%, nuclear at 17%, gas with ccs at 11%.

Fossil Fuel
Generation

Significant coal generation is phased out except
in regions with uncompetitive markets. Leadingstates constrain new gas plant builds, transitioning
to cost-effective, clean new generation sources.

Additional federal policies result in near-complete
phaseout of coal generation by 2030 and cause gas
generation to peak by 2025 and then decline.

Transportation

Leading states implement zero-emissions vehicle
mandates and incentives, with EVs (BEVs + PHEVs)
reaching approximately 60% of light-duty vehicle sales
and 15% of heavy-duty vehicle sales in 2030.

Federal incentives and standards drive EVs to over 60%
of light-duty vehicle sales, 100% of bus sales, and 15%of heavy-duty vehicle sales in 2030 nationwide.

LDV fuel economy standards are achieved through2025 consistent with the California compromise.
Leading states also set ambitious new vehicle
standards post-2026, improving internal combustion
engine efficiency by 4% annually.
In leading states, policies are in place to ensurethat appliances in new buildings and almost all
replacements of appliances in existing buildings
are electrified from 2030 onward.

Buildings

Leading states also enhance EERS policies,
achieving 2% annual energy savings incommercial and residential buildings.
Non-CO2 superpollutants

Leading states adopt comprehensive regulations
covering new and existing sources, reducing fugitive
methane emissions from oil and gas facilities by 60%.
Leading states adopt comprehensive SNAP, RMP
and other policies to rapidly phase down HFC
usage and emissions.

The federal government reinstates the current
LDV standards through 2025 and improves internal
combustion engine efficiency 4% annually from 20262030. Furthermore, the federal government incentivizes
the removal of old and inefficient vehicles from the road.

Due to new federal standards and policies all newbuildings are 100% electrified and replacementappliances from 2030 onward are electrified.
Federal financing for residential and commericalretrofits accelerates. All states achieve further
levels of energy savings where economic withthe assistance of federal funding.

Federal methane rules are reinstated and strengthened
to cover new and existing sources. Fugitive methaneemissions from oil and gas facilities are reduced by60% nationwide.
Federal actions including SNAP policies and Kigali
phasedown implementation allow for comprehensive
reduction in HFC usage and emissions nationwide.

Industry

Leading states incentivize industrial facilities toadopt best-in-class energy management practices
and adopt electrified technology. States also
promote CCUS for industrial uses and adopt
standards targeting cement emissions.

Federal incentives lead all industrial facilities nationwide
to adopt best-in-class energy management practices,and federal investments increase adoption of electrifiedtechnology. Federal policies and incentives promote
adoption of CCUS.

Land Use

Leading states incentivize low-cost natural climate
solutions such as natural forest management, optimal
nutrient application, and the use of cover crops. Allstates mitigate agricultural methane and nitrous oxideemissions where it is cost effective.

Federal investments and incentives promote low-cost
natural climate solutions nationwide. Strong federal
incentives promote methane biodigesters to reduce
methane from livestock.

Emissions Caps

RGGI states achieve mandated power sector
emissions reductions through 2030.

Additional states fully meet their aspirational
economy-wide emissions reduction goals withthe help of federal investment and support.

Leading states meet their legislated economy-wide
emissions reduction mandates and partially meet their
aspirational goals.

*This table provides a summary of policy assumptions including in the analysis. Full details on policies and climate actions evaluated, including
those on smaller scales at the city and business level, can be found in the accompanying technical appendix.
**Unless stated otherwise, federal policy assumptions are layered on top of (and therefore are inclusive of) all non-federal policy assumptions.
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Reducing emissions by 50% will require mitigation across all sectors of the economy, spurred bypolicies and actions across all actors and levels of government. Our analysis focuses on ambitious
federal incentives and mandates, backstopped and reinforced by leading non-federal actors, thattogether yield a robust decarbonization pathway to 2030. Notably, electricity generation andtransportation stand out as particularly important in the period to 2030:
Electricity sector reductions alone account for over half of the net economy-wide reductions
relative to 2005 (a 31% reduction, compared to our overall estimate of 50%). U.S. climate
ambition by 2030 hinges fundamentally on the ability to rapidly shift to zero-emissions
electricity generation. This includes robust clean electricity standards at the state and federallevel, eliminating coal-fired electricity generation without carbon dioxide capture and storage(CCS) by 2030, and significantly reducing gas-fired electricity.
The transportation sector, now the largest emitting sector in the U.S., is also critical to 2030
ambition. In this analysis, transportation emissions reductions amount to nearly one-fifth of
the total reductions in 2030 (a 9% reduction, compared to our overall estimate of 50%). A
combination of enhanced GHG performance standards on light- and heavy-duty vehicles,
tax credits for electric vehicle (EV) purchases, sales mandates implemented at the state orfederal level, and cash-for-clunker incentives to remove old and inefficient vehicles from theroad could ensure the transition to electric vehicles, deliver major reductions in transportation
emissions by 2030 and pave the way for deeper reductions beyond 2030.
Actions across other sectors, while they do not deliver as much as electricity and transportationin absolute reductions to 2030, are nevertheless essential to achieve high levels of reduction by
2030 and to set the stage for deeper reductions after 2030 on a pathway to net zero in 2050. For
example, energy-sector actions to electrify buildings, improve building energy efficiency, and scale
electrification and CCS in industry will lead to reductions by 2030 and will be important to set thestage for additional reductions beyond 2030. Actions in non-CO2 gases also can deliver nearterm and, in some cases, low-cost reductions, such as strong standards on oil and gas methane,actions to reduce nitrous oxide from agricultural production, and phasing out production andconsumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Finally, substantial new investment in protecting andbuilding the U.S. land-sector sink is critical for both the 2030 period and beyond. In this analysis,
this investment not only avoids the projected degradation in the land-sector, but it also enhances
the sink to absorb 940 MMT of carbon dioxide by 2030.
Our results are based on the latest available data for key driving forces such as technologicalchange, oil and gas prices, economic growth and the speed of recovery from COVID-19, and thecarbon uptake of natural and working lands. However, there are large sources of uncertainties
embedded in these assumptions. We conducted a sensitivity analysis surrounding population andGDP growth, oil and gas price levels, emissions related to natural and working lands. Details about
the assumptions in the high and low emissions scenarios can be found in the Technical Appendix.

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Our analysis demonstrates that an all-in, all-of-society approach to climate action in the UnitedStates can deliver emissions reductions of 50% by 2030, relative to 2005 levels. Furthermore,this and other analyses have shown the tremendous strength and potential benefits to long-term
implementation and robustness by building climate action in the U.S. across all actors. As the U.S.
develops such a strategy and communicates its potential impact as part of its upcoming Nationally
Determined Contribution (NDC) taking this all-in, all-of-society approach to heart can deliver anambitious and robust emissions target.

This updated analysis was carried out using the assessment methodology and overall
policy framework developed in earlier America’s Pledge analyses. The analysis uses aversion of the GCAM modeling platform, GCAM-AP, combined with a subnational data
aggregation methodology. It includes updated assumptions and policies for the largest
emitting sectors. Additional detail is available in the online Technical Appendix. Theanalysis was conducted by the America Is All In analytical team, based at the Universityof Maryland, World Resources Institute, and Rocky Mountain Institute, in partnershipwith the broader All In members and coalition.

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All-In Climate Strategy Report|7Endnotes:
1N. Hultman, K. Kennedy, T. Cyrs, W. Jaglom, C. Frisch, L. Clarke, A. Light (2021). An All-In National Climate Strategy to Deliver Ambitious,
Robust, and Credible U.S. Action. America Is All In working paper, 4 pp. https://www.americaisallin.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/
all-in-national-climate-strategy.pdf
2
America’s Pledge (2018). Fulfilling America’s Pledge: How States, Cities and Businesses are Leading the United States to a Low-Carbon
Future. By: Hultman, N., K. Calhoun, P. Bodnar, K. Kennedy, M. Manion, P. Hansel, T. Cyrs, K. Igusky, C. Bowman, J. DeWeese, A. Sen,J. Lou, K. Chen, J.Y. Akopian, S. Russell, N. Keohane, D. Francis, D. Ribeiro, W. Berg, S. Smarripas, S. Vaidyanathan, P. Kiely, C. Jiang,M. Brownstein, M. Watson, J. Peress, D. Lyon, Mulligan, T. Clevenger, J. Thwaites, H. Hull, A. Benn, E. Franconi, E.J. Klock-McCook, M.
Liebman, W. Krawczyk, J. Frech, F. Sanchez, A. Prada, A. Clapper, L. Cervantes Valdivieso, Z. Abdullah, I. van der Vlugt, J. Crowe, E.
Waggoner, G. Stevens, M. Gordon, E. Messer, N. Veilleux, J. Koo. New York: The America’s Pledge Initiative on Climate Change andBloomberg Philanthropies, with the University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability, Rocky Mountain Institute, World Resources
Institute, Environmental Defense Fund, American Council on an Energy Efficient Economy, CDP, and the Cadmus Group. 256 pp.
consisting of 168 pp. Report plus 88 pp. Technical Appendix. Available at: www.americaspledge.com/reports

America’s Pledge (2019). Accelerating America’s Pledge: Going All-In to Build a Prosperous, Low-Carbon Economy for the United States.
By: Hultman, N., C. Frisch, L. Clarke, K. Kennedy, P. Bodnar, P. Hansel, T. Cyrs, M. Manion, M. Edwards, J. Lund, C. Bowman, J. Jaeger,R. Cui, A. Clapper, A. Sen, D. Saha, M. Westphal, W. Jaglom, J.C. Altamirano, H. Hashimoto, M. Dennis, K. Hammoud, C. Henderson, G.
Zwicker, M, Ryan, J. O’Neill, E. GoldfieldNew York: The America’s Pledge Initiative on Climate Change and Bloomberg Philanthropies,
with the University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability, Rocky Mountain Institute, and World Resources Institute. 156 pp.
consisting of 94 pp. Report, 62 pp. Technical Appendix. Available at: www.americaspledge.com/reports

3Hultman, N., L. Clarke, C. Frisch, K. Kennedy, H. McJeon, T. Cyrs, P. Hansel, P. Bodnar, M. Manion, M.R. Edwards, R. Cui, C. Bowman,J. Lund, M. Westphal, A. Clapper, J. Jaeger, A. Sen, J. Lou, D. Saha, W. Jaglom, K. Calhoun, K. Igusky, J. deWeese, K. Hammoud, J.C.
Altimirano, M. Dennis, C. Henderson, G. Zwicker, J. O’Neill (2020). “Fusing national and sub-national climate action is central to rapidnear-term decarbonization: The case of the United States.” Nature Communications 11, 5255. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-02018903-w

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America’s Pledge (2020). Delivering on America’s Pledge: Achieving Climate Progress in 2020. W. Jaglom, C. Frisch, K. Kennedy, L. Clarke,
N. Hultman, T. Cyrs, J. Lund, D. Saha, J. Feldmann, C. Bowman, J. O’Neill, M. Campton, M. Herbert, L. Calle, A. Light, P. Bodnar (2020).
Published by Bloomberg Philanthropies with Rocky Mountain Institute, University of Maryland Center for Global Sustainability, and World
Resources Institute. 81 pp. Available at: americaspledge.com/reports
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Accelerating America’s Pledge. Op cit.