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Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 259 (2008) 6 – 16www.elsevier.com/locate/palaeo

The influence of the de Vries (∼ 200-year) solar cycle on climate
variations: Results from the Central Asian Mountains
and their global link
O.M. Raspopov a,⁎, V.A. Dergachev b , J. Esper c , O.V. Kozyreva d , D. Frank c ,M. Ogurtsov b , T. Kolström e , X. Shao fa

SPbF IZMIRAN, P.O. Box 191023, St. Petersburg, Russia
Ioffe Physico-Technical Institute, RAS, St. Petersburg, Russiac
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Birmendorf, SwitzerlanddInstitute of the Physics of the Earth, RAS, Moscow, RussiaeMekrijärvi Research Station, University of Joensuu, Joensuu, FinlandfInstitute of Geographical Science and Natural Resourses Research, CAS, Beijing, Chinab

Received 1 March 2006; accepted 1 December 2006

AbstractLong-term climatic changes related to solar forcing were examined using millennium-scale palaeoclimatic reconstructions fromthe Central Asian mountain region, i.e. summer temperature records for the Tien Shan mountains and precipitation records for the
Tibetan Plateau. The reconstructions were based on juniper tree-ring width records, i.e. Juniperus turkestanica for the Tien Shanand Sabina przewalskii for the Tibetan Plateau. The data were processed using spectral and wavelet analysis and filtered in thefrequency range related to major solar activity periodicities. The results obtained for various tree-ring chronologies indicate
palaeoclimatic oscillations in the range of the de Vries (∼ 210-year) solar cycles through the last millennium.
The quasi-200-year variations revealed in the palaeoclimatic reconstructions correlate well (R2 = 0.58–0.94) with solar activity
variations (Δ14C variations). The quasi-200-year climatic variations have also been detected in climate-linked processes in Asia,
Europe, North and South America, Australia, and the Arctic and Antarctica. The results obtained point to a pronounced influence of
solar activity on global climatic processes.
Analysis has shown that climate response to the long-term global solar forcing has a regional character. An appreciable delay in the
climate response to the solar signal can occur (up to 150 years). In addition, the sign of the climate response can differ from the solar
signal sign. The climate response to long-term solar activity variations (from 10s to 1000s years) manifests itself in different climaticparameters, such as temperature, precipitation and atmospheric and oceanic circulation. The climate response to the de Vries cycle has
been found to occur not only during the last millennia but also in earlier epochs, up to hundreds of millions years ago.
© 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Climate change; Solar activity; Dendrochronology; de Vries solar cycle; Tien Shan; Tibetan Plateau⁎ Corresponding author. Fax: +7 812 310 50 35.
E-mail address: oleg@OR6074.spb.edu (O.M. Raspopov).
0031-0182/$ - see front matter © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.palaeo.2006.12.017

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1. Introduction

2. Methods

The ∼ 200-year solar cycle (de Vries cycle) is commonly believed to be one of the most intense solar
cycles. Variation of cosmogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be
concentration in terrestrial archives carry information
about the past periodicity of solar activity. Using Δ14 C
variations (radiocarbon concentration) in tree-rings
Vasil'ev et al. (1999) and Muscheler et al. (2003) inferred that the ∼ 200-year solar activity cycle (de Vries
cycle) is a dominant cycle during the Holocene. The
deep solar minima (Maunder, Spörer, Wolf) can be
regarded as manifestations of the de Vries cycle during
the past few millennia (Eddy, 1976). By examining 10Be
concentration in Greenland ice as a proxy for solar activity
variations, Wagner et al. (2001) traced the development of
this periodicity between 50,000 and 25,000 years ago.
Their findings suggest that the de Vries cycle persisted
over even longer timescales.
Sonett and Suess (1984) showed the existence of acorrelation between the spectra of 14С concentrationand the radial growth of tree rings of bristlecone pinesfrom eastern California at ∼ 200-year periodicity.
Palaeoclimatic data obtained in recent years further demonstrate the connection between ∼ 200-year solar
activity periodicity and other climatic parameters (see,for example, Schimmelmann et al., 2003). The temporalsynchrony between the Maunder, Spörer, and Wolf
minima and the expansion of Alpine glaciers (Haeberliand Holzhauser, 2003) further point to a climate response to the deep solar minima. A similar conclusion
was inferred from analysis of glacier expansion in Alaska (Wiles et al., 2004). However, the climate response
to a solar signal can vary from one region to another.
Wiles et al. (2004) showed that regional climate responses to the de Vries cycle can markedly differ in phaseeven at distances of several hundred kilometers. Thiscan result from the nonlinear character of the atmosphere–ocean system response to solar forcing. The
possibility of a regional response to de Vries cycles is
supported by model simulations which examine theeffect of variations in solar irradiance on the atmosphere–ocean system (Waple et al., 2002). Similar conclusions were inferred from analysis of solar forcing of theclimate during the Maunder Minimum (Shindell et al.,2001).
It is therefore necessary to carry out analysis of aclimate response to the de Vries periodicity for different
regions of the Earth and compare the results with thedata obtained by simulation. The goal of this paper is toanalyze climate variations in Central Asia that may berelated to the ∼ 200-year solar cycle.

To reveal the long-term climatic changes that occurred
during the last millennium, we used variations in tree ringwidths of junipers from two mountain regions of Central
Asia: the Tien Shan mountains and the Qinghai-Tibetan
Plateau (Fig. 1). The distance between the regions where
the dendrochronological data were collected is approximately 2000 km.
We analyzed tree ring growth for two types of junipers: for Juniperus turkestanica (variations of summer temperatures) in the high timberline in the Tien
Shan mountains and Qilian juniper (Sabina przewalskii)(variations of precipitation) on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. We have subjected these data to band-pass filteringin the 180–230 period range, wavelet transformation(Morlet basis) for the range of periods between 100 and
300 years, and spectral analysis to quantify variability
that may be related to the de Vries cycle. The palaeoclimatic data are then compared with an estimate of solar
activity based on Δ14С variations to describe the development of the ∼ 200 year solar activity periodicity (deVries cycle) during the last millennium.
In this paper we do not discuss possible physical mechanisms of the influence of solar activity on atmosphericprocesses. The interested reader can find information on
this subject in our earlier paper concerned with the problems of influence of solar activity on atmosphericprocesses as applied to the Hale cycle of solar activity(Raspopov et al., 2004, 2005).
2.1. Tien Shan data
In the Tien Shan, tree-ring width variations ofJ. turkestanica (ΔR) growing above 2800–2900 m altitude
were used for analysis. The trees at these locations canreach ages of 2000 years, and analyses have revealed thatvariations in juniper tree-ring widths primarily reflect
June–July temperatures with no significant influence of
precipitation (Mukhamedshin and Sarbaev, 1988; Maksimov and Grebenyuk, 1972; Esper et al., 2003b). Therefore,
analysis of long-term juniper ring width variations, whencompared with solar activity variations, allow relationships
between long-term changes in solar activity and summer
temperatures in Central Asia to be investigated. To reliably
detect the ∼200-year fluctuations in ΔR for J. turkestanica,
we analyzed long-term ring width records developed for
different sites in the Tien Shan mountains by independent
research teams: Maksimov and Grebenyuk (1972),
Mukhamedshin and Sarbaev (1988), and Esper et al.
(2003b). The locations of these three collections are shownin Fig. 1a.

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Fig. 1. Location of study areas within Asia, and maps showing location of sampling points A: The Tien Shan mountain region: the triangle marks thesite used by Maksimov and Grebenyuk, the thick line marks the site used by Mukhamedshin and Sarbaev, and the rectangle is the site used by Esper
et al. (2003b) B: The Tibetan Plateau region: the triangle marks the sites used for collecting juniper tree rings.

The chronology published by Maksimov and Grebenyuk (1972) covers the time interval from 1170 to1970 AD. It is based on processing data for trees older
than 800 years, i.e. the records are much longer than the
period of interest. The samples were collected in Tajikistanon the northern slope of the Zeravshan range at an altitudeof 3500 m, about 1.0 km from the glacier (39.5°N, 70.7°E).
The chronology published by Mukhamedshin andSarbaev (1988) covers the time interval from 750 to1972 AD. It is based on data from trees older than
650 years, with individual samples containing up to1250 annual growth rings. Unlike the other tree-ringrecords presented herein, this record is not annuallyresolved as it is composed of 10-year averages of annual
ring width increments. The samples were collected insouthern Kirghizia on the northern slope of the Alay
range at elevations above 2900 m (39.9°N, 72.5°E).
Both the records of Maksimov and Grebenyuk (1972),

and Mukhamedshin and Sarbaev (1988) were developed
using tree discs rather than core samples.
The third dataset used in this analysis is the RCS(Regional Curve Standardization, Esper et al., 2003a)
detrended chronology by Esper et al. (2003b) integrating juniper core samples from several high elevationsites (N 2900 m a.s.l.) in the Alay range, southern Kirghizia (39.8°–40.2°N, 71.5°–72.6°E). This record spansthe past millennium. The age-trend in this record wasremoved by using a technique to maximally preserve
low-frequency information in the tree ring data. Using
RCS or similar techniques, variations are not inherently
limited by the lengths of individual tree series — aconsideration that is particularly important in datasetsthat combine shorter tree segments to form a chronology
significantly longer than the span covered by individual
tree ring measurement series (Cook et al., 1995). However, for all of the Tien Shan datasets, the shortest tree

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series are more than three times longer than the ∼ 200year periodicity of interest, suggesting that potentialchanges of this periodicity could be preserved.
2.2. Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau data
To analyze long-term climatic changes on the QinghaiTibetan Plateau, tree-ring width variations of Qilan juniper (S. przewalskii) growing in the mountains of arid
and semiarid areas in the northwestern part of the plateau
were used. The tree ring chronology was developed by

9cross-dated samples from 11 sites of Qinghai Province(36.7–37.5°N, 97.0–98.7°E) (Fig. 1b). These data wereused as a basis for constructing a regional chronology(RC). Shao et al. (2005) found that Qilan juniper growth in
the area under study was mainly limited by moisture
conditions in May and June and that there is a significantly
positive correlation between the RC and the total precipitation from July of a previous year to June of a subsequent year. By using the connection between variationsin precipitation and tree ring width, Shao et al.
(2005) made a 1437-year reconstruction of July–June

Fig. 2. From top to bottom: (a) variations in 10-year averages of Δ14С (Stuiver et al., 1998); (b) variations in tree ring widths in the chronology ofMaksimov and Grebenyuk; (c) relative variations in tree ring widths in the chronology of Mukhamedshin and Sarbaev (averaged over 10-year
intervals); (d) the RCS chronology by Esper et al. (2003b), (e) the precipitation reconstruction record for the Tibetan Plateau by Shao et al. (2005) forthe last millenium.

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precipitation for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. This
reconstruction was used in our work to analyze longterm climatic variations in this region.
2.3. Analysis
In this paper the tree ring data from the Tien Shen and
Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau are used to assess the climatic
response to possible solar forcing in Central Asia. As an
estimate of the past solar activity itself we rely upon dataof cosmogenic isotope abundance as preserved in tree rings
and ice cores. Galactic cosmic rays entering the Earth's

atmosphere generate a number of cosmogenic radionuclides such as carbon isotope 14C and beryllium isotope 10Be.
It is convenient to use 14C and 10Be to study the naturalprocesses affecting the isotope concentration, such as time
variations of solar activity. As a result of exchange processes in the environment, these radioisotopes fall into thedated natural archives: 14C isotope is present in annual treerings, and 10Be isotope is found in glaciers and marine
sediments. An analysis of the dated natural archives is aunique approach to the investigation of processes on the
Earth and near Earth space and the time scales from decades
to several thousand years (for 14C) and to hundreds ofFig. 3. Results of filtering in the range of periods 180–230 years (from top to bottom): (a) variations in 10-year averages of Δ14С (Stuiver et al.,1998); (b) variations in tree ring widths in the chronology of Maksimov and Grebenyuk; (c) variations in tree ring widths in the chronology of
Mukhamedshin and Sarbaev; (d) the RCS chronology by Esper et al. (2003b), (e) the precipitation reconstruction record for the Tibetan Plateau by
Shao et al. (2005).

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thousand years (for 10Be). In our study we use data forvariations of 14C concentration (Δ14С) detailed in Stuiver
et al. (1998) which are based on values measured from treerings averaged over 10-year periods. This record covers
the past millennium — a similar time span as the tree ringdata.
To place our results from central Asia in a broader
context we also include comparisons and discussions
with data from trees that grew in Chile ∼ 50,000 years
ago (Roig et al., 2001), varve data from the southern
USA (W. Dean, unpublished data, personal communication), estimates of solar activity for the past
8000 years based on Δ14С in tree rings (Stuiver andBecker, 1993; Vasil'ev et al., 1999), glacial fluctuations
over the past 1000 years in Alaska (Wiles et al., 2004)
and 10Be concentrations from a Greenland ice core
for the period from 50,000–25,000 years ago (Wagner
et al., 2001).
3. Results
The Δ14С record, the three ΔR chronologies for the
Tien Shan mountains, and precipitation reconstruction for
the Qiaghai-Tibetan Plateau are shown in Fig. 2. Solar
minima are indicated by peaks in 14C concentration (Fig.
2a); the Maunder minimum refers to the period of highest
14
C concentration around 1700 AD, with the Spörer andWolf minima occurring around 1500 AD and 1300 AD,
respectively. The earliest 14C peak, ∼1050 AD, reflects
the Oort minimum, and the two smaller peaks after
1800 AD reflect the Dalton and Damon minima.
All five of these records were subjected to band-passfiltering in the range of periods 180–230 years andwavelet transformation (Morlet basis) for the range of
periods between 100 and 300 years. The result of the
band-pass filtering is shown in Fig. 3. The band-passfiltered records of J. turkestanica tree rings (which inessence represent variations in summer temperatures inWestern Central Asia) (Fig. 3b–d), and also the bandpass filtered record of the precipitation reconstruction
based on the Qilian juniper chronology for the Tibetan
Plateau (Fig. 3e) and of the Δ14С curve (Fig. 3a), allexhibit pronounced ∼ 200-year oscillations.
The waveforms evident in the band-pass filtered (summer temperatures, precipitation, and Δ14С) have similar
periodicities, however, they are not in phase (Table 1). This
shift can be due to the reservoir effect in the 14С depositionin tree rings. Additionally, local climatic conditions (proximity to glaciers, etc.) of the two different regions covered(Tien Shan mountains and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau),
the varying responses of temperature and precipitation
sensitive trees to differing environmental forcing, and11

ocean–atmosphere lags to the forcing can affect the phaserelation between the curves (see Discussion).
If we account for the phase shift, the curves shown in
Fig. 3 demonstrate high correlation coefficients in the 180–230-year period range (Table 1). For the Δ14С curve andchronology of Maksimov and Grebenyuk, this coefficientreaches 0.94 when a lag of 150 years is applied. Highcorrelation coefficients are another indicator (in addition to
the spectrum dynamics) suggesting that there is arelationship between solar activity and climatic processes.
The result of wavelet transformation is shown in Fig. 4.
It is evident that a decrease in the period of quasi-200hundred-year variations during the last millennium isobserved in both the Δ14С (Fig. 4a) and dendrochronological (J. turkestanica) data (Fig. 4b–d). Within the rangeof the periodicities shown (100–300 years), all three of thetemperature proxies (Fig. 4b–d) display a weakening of
the signal at ∼1700 AD, thought likely to be a consequence of the low solar activity around this time. The Esper
et al. (2003b) record displays minima between 1000–
1100 AD centered around the 150-year periodicity, and∼1300 AD centered around the 200-year periodicity(Fig. 4d). However, in the Esper et al. record there is noclear evidence for a minimum that is centered around1500 AD that can be linked with low solar activity ataround this time. The dynamic spectrum of precipitation
variations on the Tibetan Plateau also exhibits ∼200-year
oscillations (Fig. 4e), yet these are not as pronounced in
the wavelet decomposition as the temperature related
proxies (Fig. 4b–d). Furthermore, because of a considerable increase in the precipitation from about 1800 AD, thedecrease in the oscillation period to the end of the millennium is less pronounced in this record.
4. Discussion and the 200-year cycle globally
The dynamic spectra of changes in solar activity andclimatic processes estimated from millennium-long treering records for Central Asia are similar, pointing toTable 1
Correlation coefficient between band-pass filtered Δ14C record(Stuiver, 1980) and band-pass filtered chronology presented in Fig. 3
Δ14С correlation with

Correlation
coefficientΔt (years)

Summer temperature (Maksimov
and Grebenyuk, 1972)
Summer temperature (Mukhamedshin
and Sarbaev, 1988)
Summer temperature(Esper et al., 2003b)
Precipitation on the Tibetan plateau(Shao et al., 2005)

0.94

−150

0.58

− 10

0.73

0

0.84

−100

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potential relationships. The above results, based upon
temperature and precipitation sensitive tree-ring data fromthe central Asian mountain regions show significant
variability at wavelengths around 200 years. We link thevariability at these periodicities with the de Vries solar
cycle.

The response of precipitation variations to solar forcing must a priori have a more complicated and ambiguous
character as compared with the temperature response. Thisis due to the fact that the precipitation intensity depends onchanges in the atmospheric circulation and physical andchemical condition of the atmosphere. On the whole, inFig. 4. Results of wavelet transformation (Morlet basis) of the data given in Fig. 2 in the range of periods 100–300 years: (from top to bottom)(a) variations in 10-year averages of Δ14С (Stuiver et al., 1998); (b) variations in tree ring widths in the chronology of Maksimov and Grebenyuk;(c) variations in tree ring widths in the chronology of Mukhamedshin and Sarbaev; (d) the RCS chronology by Esper et al. (2003b), (e) the
precipitation reconstruction record for the Tibetan Plateau by Shao et al. (2005).

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spite of the diversity of the factors affecting precipitation
formation in the atmosphere, the effect of the ∼200-year
solar activity variation on the climate on the Tibetan Plateau
is very pronounced.
It is evident from the temperature proxy data presented (Figs. 2b–d and 4b–d) that all the chronologies
related to the 200-year variations considered in thispaper have a high coefficient of correlation with Δ14С
variations, i.e. from 0.58 to 0.94 (Table 1). The coefficient of correlation between the precipitation intensity proxy on the Tibetan Plateau (Figs. 2e and 4e) andthe de Vries cycle is also high and equals 0.84 (Table 1).
However, when the estimates of the phase shift between
the Δ14С variations and the chronologies are examined, attention is immediately focused on a large phaseshift of 150 years for the temperature record of Maximov and Grebenyuk (Figs. 2b and 4b) and a phase shiftof 100 years for the precipitation record from Tibet(Figs. 2e and 4e).
The phase shift between Δ14С and climatic parameters could be caused by different factors. First, it
could be due to the reservoir effect in production andincorporation of 14С in terrestrial archives. According to
Stuiver and Braziunas (1998), the delay between solar
activity changes and corresponding response of theradiocarbon concentration in the 11-year solar cycle isabout 2 years. This means that the time difference between the moment of solar activity variation and, hence,
the moment of 14С production and completion of theexchange cycle in the atmosphere–ocean system andsedimentation of 14С in terrestrial archives can amountto several years. The phase shift between solar forcing
and 14С response increases with increasing solar cycle
length, as shown by Dergachev and Stupneva (1975):
the maximum correlation between changes in the solar
activity and radiocarbon concentration for the solar activity periods of hundreds of years occurs at a phase shiftof about 20 years. These factors could explain the phaseshift seen in the summer temperature records of
Mukhamedshin and Sarbaev (10 years) (Table 1). However, the phase shift caused by the reservoir effect in
Δ14С (20 years) is insufficient to explain the phase shift
for the temperature record of Maksimov and Grebenyuk(150 years) and the precipitation record from Tibet(100 years) (Table 1).
Variations in 14C production have been shown to
induce larger phase shifts between Δ14С and climate
proxies. Stuiver (1980) reconstructed from the radiocarbon data (Δ14C) the atmospheric 14C-production ratechanges due to solar oscillatory modes such as theMaunder minimum and compared them with the climatic data inferred from measurements of the 18О concen-

13

tration in ice cores from the Camp Century and Devon
Island stations. The maximum correlation coefficient
was found to occur at a phase shift of 50–70 years betweenchanges in the radiocarbon production rate and climatic
data. These larger phase shifts are still however insufficient
to explain those identified for the summer temperaturerecord of Maksimov and Grebenyuk or the precipitation
record from Tibet. This suggests that local climate conditions may be responsible for these longer phase shifts.
Consideration of the study site supports the argument
for local climatic influence. The juniper trees describedby Maksimov and Grebenyuk grew at 3500 m altitude in
the immediate vicinity of the glacier, i.e. only 100 m
lower from the glacier and at a distance of not more than
1 km from its edge. The trees used to reconstruct thetemperature records of Mukhamedshin and Sarbaev andEsper et al. were collected at the heights ∼ 500 m lower
than the samples for Maksimov and Grebenyuk, i.e. atlarger distances from the edges of glaciers. The proximity to a glacier could appreciably change the microclimatic conditions in general and also as a function of
the glacier dynamics (advance and retreat), and thusincrease the phase shift between the global solar signal
and the climatic response at the particular site of thejuniper growth.
Unfortunately, no studies of the response of the glacier dynamics in Tien Shan to the forcing of the 200year solar cyclicity have been carried out. However,studies on a similar glacier have been carried out in
Alaska (Wiles et al., 2004). Wiles et al. demonstrated
glacial moraine formation in Alaska linked to theMaunder minimum (1640–1710 AD) and identified
leads and lags of up to 150–160 years for the Beer andUltramarine glaciers. Thus, the time differences in thecompletion of advances of glaciers located in one regionand separated only by several tens or several hundredsof kilometers can amount to tens of years and reach
150–160 years. The data from Alaska suggest the large
lag in the climatic signal behind the solar forcing in thesummer temperature record of Maximov and Grebenyuk(150 years) could be a result of the close proximity ofthe trees to the glacier edge. The large lag seen in the
precipitation record from the Tibetan Plateau relative tosolar activity variations is attributable to specificfeatures of atmospheric circulation in this region. However, this problem needs further investigation.
Since the revealed ∼200-year climatic signal is likely associated with the global solar forcing, it can be
expected that development of the ∼ 200-year climatic
periodicity can be detected in different regions of the
Earth. The available palaeoclimatic data confirm theexistence of this periodicity in Europe, North and SouthAuthor's personal copy

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America, Asia, Tasmania, Antarctica and Arctic, andsediments in the seas and oceans (Sonett and Suess,
1984; Peterson et al., 1991; Anderson, 1992, 1993; Cooket al., 1996; Zolitschka, 1996; Dean, 1997; Cini Castagnoli et al., 1998; Qin et al., 1999; Hong et al., 2000;
Hodell et al., 2001; Nyberg et al., 2001; Yang et al.,
2002; Fleitman et al., 2003; Haeberli and Holzhauser,
2003; Hu et al., 2003; Schimmelmann et al., 2003; Soonand Yaskell, 2003; Wiles et al., 2004; Wang et al., 2005).
Spatial non-uniformity in the temperature response tosolar forcing has been modeled at a global scale byWaple et al. (2002). As can be seen from Fig. 5, the same
solar irradiance variations lead to both positive andnegative temperature responses in different regions.
Moreover, there are border regions (e.g. the North Atlantic and the north of Scandinavia), where the response
to long-term solar signal variations can be absent orchange sign over time.
The Tien Shan and Tibetan Plateau are in areas predicted to show a pronounced positive response to solar
forcing (Fig. 5). This agrees with the pronounced manifestation of the ∼200-year climatic signal found in thetree ring data (Fig. 4b–e). The crosses on the map markthe regions where ∼ 200-year climatic variations wereobserved in other proxy records.

Evidence for climatic and solar variations related tothe de Vries cycle has been found to occur not only
during the time intervals of the last millennia and theHolocene, but also during earlier epochs. A 192-year
periodicity was revealed in the varves lacustrine sediments of Lake Lissan, Dead Sea Rift for the timeinterval 26.2–17.7 ka (Prasad et al., 2004). In Southern
Chile, a 200-year periodicity was registered in variationsof ring widths of subfossil 50,000-year old Fitzroya
cupressoides (Roig et al., 2001). In addition, Wagner
et al. (2001) demonstrated the presence of intense
variations on time scales equivalent to the de Vries cyclein 10Ве concentrations associated with solar activity inGreenland ice for the time interval from 50,000 to
25,000 years ago.
Unique palaeoclimatic data pointing to the ∼ 200year variability were obtained by W. Dean (personalcommunication) in analysis of the sediments from theUpper Permian (250 million years) Castile Formation in
the Delaware Basin in the west Texas and New Mexico,
USA. Fig. 6 shows a smoothed (moving averaged) 800year record of calcite–anhydrite varve thickness in Halite I Member of Permian Castle Formation, measured in
the core from Winkler County, Texas, USA. In theopinion of the authors the ∼ 200-year variations clearlyFig. 5. The map demonstrating results of simulation of the temperature response of the atmosphere-ocean system to the effect of long-term (N40 year)
variations in solar irradiance (modified from Waple et al., 2002). The asterisks show the location of the regions in Central Asia the palaeoclimatic data
for which are analyzed in this paper. The crosses mark the sites where quasi-200-hundred-year climatic variations were revealed.

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by the European Commission (Program INTAS, Projects
DENDROLAB and CAMBIFORRUS), the RussianFoundation for Basic Research (projects 06-04-48792a,
06-02-16268a, 06-05-64200a), the Russian Academy of
Sciences (Program N 16 “Changes of Environment andClimate”), and the Swiss National Science Foundation(NCCR-Climate).
References

Fig. 6. Smoothed (moving averaged) 800-year record of calcite–anhydrite varve thickness in the Permian Castle Formation (250 Ma)
measured in the core from Winkler County, Texas, USA (unpublished,with permission by W.E. Dean).

seen in the graph are associated with solar forcing.
Therefore, it is likely that 250 million years ago the deVries cycle was also one of the most intense solar
activity periodicities that affected climatic processes.
5. Conclusions
Analysis of long-term dendrochronological data for
two Central Asia mountain regions (the Tien Shan and
Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau) obtained by four independent
research teams has demonstrated the presence of ∼ 200year climatic variations. These variations show a highcorrelation (R = 0.58–0.94) with a similar solar periodicity (de Vries period) inferred from the radiocarbon
concentration that is modulated by temporal variations
in solar activity.
Review of published palaeoclimatic data shows thatthe ∼ 200-year climatic variations are evident in theoceans and different regions of the Earth (Europe, Northand South America, Asia, etc.). Analysis of the results
obtained in simulation of the effect of long-term variations in solar irradiance has shown that, because of an
essentially nonlinear character of the processes in theatmosphere–ocean system, the climate response to external long-term solar forcing, including the 200-year
variation, differs in different regions of the Earth and canmanifest itself in various climatic parameters.
Acknowledgements
We thank Greg Wiles for valuable discussion andproviding us with one of his figures, Gerard Versteegh,
William Gosling and an anonymous reviewer for constructive comments and criticisms, and W.D Dean for
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