July 2005

No.1
Contents
Message from Editor

1

Ongoing Development Activities: COBE-SST

1

Probabilistic Seasonal Forecast Products

2

Release of the “Global Warming Projection” volume 6

3

Improvements in JMA’s El Niño Forecast

3

Ongoing Development Activities: JRA-25 Project3

Operation of a New Geostationary Meteorological Satellite, MTSAT-1R

4

Coming Soon: Climate Change Monitoring Report 2004

4

M e s s a ge f ro m E d i t o routlooks, besides topics on the renewal and the usage of TCC products. I expect the newsletter will
provide opportunities for timely exchange of views and informationamong the NMHSs on up-to-datetechniques of climate monitoringand predictions as well as ongoingsignificant climate events. It will
also deal with news and information
on international climate activities,
Head of TCC
and progress of technical developments. Contribution to the newsletter from readers are always welcome.
I would hope the newsletter is of help to active communication among people engaged in climate matters, wishingfurther collaboration and advancement of climate services
among Asia and Pacific nations.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) establishedthe Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) in April 2002. TCC hasbeen engaged in climate-related services for three years withthe main purpose of assisting the climate monitoring andprediction services at National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in Asia and Pacific regions. I am
grateful to the NMHSs in the regions for their cooperationand contribution extended to TCC.
TCC has been operationally providing data and information that are useful for climate monitoring and prediction
through the TCC website, and sponsored several international meetings including a training workshop for climaterelated matters. TCC is planning to start providing tercile
probabilistic forecasts and improved climate system monitoring and diagnostics based on the Japanese Re-Analysis
project (JRA-25) dataset. I expect these improvements will
make further contribution to the advancement of climate
related activities in the regions.
This TCC Newsletter, newly published and to be issued
four times a year, will include articles on significant climate
disasters and events, forecaster's commentaries on seasonal

Shingo Yamada
Head of Tokyo Climate CenterO n go i n g D eve l o p m e n t A c t iv i t i e s : C O B E - S S T
In March 2006, TCC will put a new historical sea surface temperature (SST) dataset, named COBE-SST, intooperation for climate system monitoring, especially for El
Niño monitoring. The COBE-SST is a part of the gridded
datasets called COBE, Centennial in-situ Observation-Based
Estimates of the variability of SSTs and marine meteorological variables (Ishii et al., 2005). The COBE consists ofglobal objective analyses from the late 19th century to present, using historical observations from the International
Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) andthe Kobe Collection datasets. The COBE-SST provides along-term homogeneous dataset with high spatial resolution(one-degree mesh), which is of great value for monitoring
global climate change (see Figure 1).
ReferenceIshii M, A. Shoji, S. Sugimoto and T. Matsumoto, 2005:
Objective Analyses of Sea-Surface Temperature and ma-Tokyo Climate Center

SST anomaly (℃)

rine meteorological variables for the 20th Century using
ICOADS and the Kobe Collection, Int. J. Climatol., 25,
865-879.

Figure 1 Annual mean SST Anomalies over the Globe from
1891-present, computed as departures from the 1971-2000
mean using COBE-SST1No.1 | July 2005

P ro b a b i l i s t i c S e a s o n a l Fo re c a s t P ro d u c t sExperimental products for tercile probalistic
forecast have become available from the TCCwebsite.
1. Overview
TCC has been providing seasonal Numerical
Weather Prediction (NWP) products based on theJMA ensemble prediction system through the website since September 2003. In June 2005, we started
providing experimental products of the tercile probabilities of three-month mean 2m-temperature(T2m), equivalent to surface air temperature, andthree-month accumulated precipitation, which are
fundamental for the NMHSs to make probabilistic
seasonal outlooks. In order to calibrate overconfident forecast estimated simply from each ensemble member's occurrence rate, a calibration
method based on the Model Output Statistics(MOS) using the 18-year hindcast (1984-2001) data
was developed, which made forecast significantly
more reliable.
Figure 2 shows a sample of the new products
which are provided through the TCC website. The
probabilities of the most likely category are shownby colors, i.e., red shows above normal, grey normal and blue below normal. The grids, where theRelative Operating Characteristic (ROC) area wassmaller than 50% in the verification, remain blank.
The forecasted probabilities of all categories at any
grid point are shown with a click on the figure(Figure 3). Users may check the verification resultsof hindcast for the selected grid (and the surrounding eight grids). We hope the users make the bestuse of these probabilistic products, after checking
these verification information.
2. Calibration method
The 18-year hindcast data were used to develop
the MOS relationship. The ensemble mean T2m
and precipitation were calculated as predictors. Thecorresponding observational data were the probabilities of occurrence in tercile determined from18-year observations, derived from the ERA-40 forT2m and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Merged Analysis of Precipitation (Xie and Arkin,1997) for precipitation. MOS model parameters
were calculated for each of 2.5 x 2.5 deg. grids andfor each month. The Ordered Probit Model1) technique was analyzed to the qualitative data with or-der.
The maximum likelihoodmethod was used for estimating theMOS model parameters.
3. Verification results
The verification was executedusing the cross-validation method,that is, the MOS model parameters
were calculated with the samples
except the one to be validated. We
checked the following verification
scores: the ROC curve, the ROC
area and the reliability diagrams,
Figure 4 Ratio of above 50%
which are recommended in the ROC area regarding one-month
WMO's Standard Verification Sys- lead tercile probabilistic foretem for Long-Range Forecast cast for three-month mean 2m(SVSLRF2)). Figure 4 shows the temperature. Red and black
percentage of grids at which the lines indicate the tropics (20SMOS estimation is proved more 20N) and the Northern Hemiskilful than climatological one, i.e. sphere (20N-90N), respectively.
the ROC area is larger than 50%. In
the tropics (20N-20S : red curve),
the MOS gives meaningful probability at about 80% of total grids. Figure 5 shows the reliability diagram
for the grids where the ROC area islarger than 50%. It can be seen thatthe forecasted probabilities are fairly
reliable in the probability range between 20% and 50%, and the Brierskill score shows that this method issignificantly skilful at these grids.
Reference
Xie P, P. A. Arkin, 1997: Global Figure 5 Reliability diagram
precipitation: a 17-year monthly (red) and forecast frequency(green) of above 50% ROC area
analysis based on gauge observa- regarding one-month lead tertions, satellite estimates, and nu- cile probabilistic forecast formerical model outputs. Bull. three-monthmean2mAmer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2539- temperature in the tropics.
2558.
(Akira Ito and Shuhei Maeda, Climate Prediction Division)
Probability Forecasts:
http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/model/probfcst/4mE/index.html
1) Ordered Probit Model:
http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/model/probfcst/4mE/doc/probit.html
2) SVSLRF:
h t t p : / / w w w . w mo . c h / w e b / w w w / D P S / L R F / L R F - v e r i f ic a t i o n systems.html

Figure 2 Probabilistic forecast products of the most
likely category for 2m-temperature.

Figure 3 Tercile probabilistic forecast products for 2m-temperature(left) and precipitation (right) at a specific grid point.

Tokyo Climate Center2

No.1 | July 2005

R e l e a s e o f t h e “ G l o b a l Wa r m i n g P ro j e c t i o n ” vo l u m e 6
parts of Japan, and also the frequency of heavy rainfall and theIn March 2005, JMA published the "Global Warming
number of rainy days.
Projection" volume 6. It contains detailed projections of
the climate change around Japan in the end of the 21st(Hiroko Morooka, Climate Prediction Division)
century (Figure 6) with JMA’s Regional Climate Model,
Global Warming Projection volume 5:
whose horizontal resolution is about 20km (RCM20).
http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/gwp/gwp5/e_index.html
Boundary conditions of RCM20 are made from the proGlobal Warming Projection volume 6:
http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/gwp/gwp6/index.html
jections improved with JMA’s CGCM, which are described in the "Global Warming Projection"
volume 5. The increase rate of CO2 is basedon the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in2000.
The main results of the projections are as
follows:- The annual mean surface temperatures
around Japan are projected to increase 23℃ in general, and about 4℃ in a part ofHokkaido.
- The annual precipitation is projected toincrease in almost all parts of Japan, andthe rate of increase is 20% at a maximum. Figure 6 Change of annual mean temperature (unit: ℃, left) and annual pre- The precipitation in July is projected to cipitation (unit: %, right) for years of 2081 to 2100 relative to the period
increase in most of the central and western from 1981 to 2000.

I m p rove m e n t s i n J M A ’ s E l N i ñ o Fo re c a s t M o d e l
In June 2005, JMA's El Niño forecast system, which provides Region B SST anomaly predictions for JMA’s "El
Niño Outlook", was improved to reduce its positive predictive bias. An example of the prediction of the SST deviationfor Region B with the new system is shown in the Figure 7.
(1) Change in the analysis used for oceanic initial conditions
Previously, we used the analysis of Ocean Data Assimilation System (ODAS) with a lag of 35 days as oceanic initialconditions for CGCM, considering a delay in data acquisition. However, in recent years, much more data have become available on real-time basis owing to the developmentof new observation system, such as Argo profiling floats.
Hence, we decided to use the analysis of ODAS with a lagof five days. This change reduced the forecast lead time byabout one month.
(2) Change in the ensemble forecasting system
We adopted the ensemble forecasting system based on
the Lagged Average Forecasting（LAF）method. Previously,
we used six ensemble members, calculated twice a month.
Now, we use 12 ensemble members, calculated six times permonth (five-day interval). This change reduced the leadtime of one-month forecast from 35-120 days to 5-60 days.
(3) Change in the bias correction method
The model's systematic bias depends upon both the pre-dicted season and the lead time. Previously, we used theMOS relationship based on the hindcasts from 1988 to 2000.
Now, the SST deviation for Region B is corrected by removing the model's mean error over the whole hindcast period
from 1988 to 2003.
(Goro Yamanaka, Climate Prediction Division)
El Niño Outlook:
http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/elnino/outlook.html

Figure 7 Outlook of the SST deviation for Region B (Niño.3) by
the El Niño forecast modelThis figure indicates a time series of the monthly SST deviations forRegion B (4°N-4°S, 150°W-90°W). Thick lines with closed circles
show the observed SST deviation and boxes show the predicted one
for the next six months by the El Niño forecast model. Each box
denotes the range where the SST deviation will be included with theprobability of 70%.

O n go i n g D eve l o p m e n t A c t iv i t i e s : J R A - 2 5 P ro j e c t
JMA and CRIEPI (Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry) have been conducting a new global
long-term atmospheric reanalysis project. This cooperative research project named the Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis (JRA-25) Project is now on the final stage of thefive-year project period. TCC is planning to provide TCC

users with new historical dataset for climate system monitoringin March 2006 developed with this analysis system. The features of the products will appear in the next issue.
JRA-25 website:
http://www.jreap.org/indexe.html

Tokyo Climate Center3No.1 | July 2005

O p e ra t i o n o f a N ew G e o s t a t i o n a r y M e t e o ro l o g i c a l
S a t e l l i t e, M T S AT- 1 RTheMulti-functional
Transport
Satellite(MTSAT-1R), the successor to Geostationary Meteorological Satellite-5 (GMS-5), was successfullylaunched on 26 February 2005 and started its operation on 28 June 2005.
MTSAT-1R is a three-axis body-stabilized spacecraft having two main missions, i.e. meteorologicaland aeronautical missions. The meteorological function of MTSAT-1R is improved in comparison withGMS-5. MTSAT-1R deploys a new imager with awavelength 3.7µm (IR4) in addition to the conventional four channels (VIS, IR1, IR2 and IR3). The
quantization of the infrared channels is improved
from 8 bits to 10 bits, and that of the visible channel
from 6 bits to 10 bits. Spectral channel bandwidths
for the MTSAT-1R’s imager are listed in the Table
1.
The Meteorological Satellite Center of JMA has
been developing and improving operational productsof MTSAT. Cloud Motion Winds (CMWs) and
Water Vapor Motion Winds (WVMWs) will be derived from successive images in 15-minute intervals.
The additional IR4 channel is expected to be usefulfor the detection of low-level cloud in nighttime. It

will also bring substantial improvements in Satellite Cloud Grid
Information Data (SCGID) and SST calculation. SST will be calculated more accurately with the infrared channels data of 10 bits.
The Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT), which has been used formonitoring dust aerosol originated in Asian Continent, will be calculated more accurately with the visible channel data of 10 bits.
(Nozomu Ohkawara, Meteorological Satellite Center)
MTSAT-1R website:
http://www.jma.go.jp/JMA_HP/jma/jma-eng/satellite/index.html
Table 1 Spectral Channel
Bandwidths
ChannelSpectral band(µm)
Visible (VIS) 0.55 - 0.90
Infrared 1 (IR1) 10.3 - 11.3
Infrared 2 (IR2) 11.5 - 12.5
Infrared 3 (IR3) 6.5 - 7.0
Infrared 4 (IR4) 3.5 - 4.0

Figure 8 Test Imagery from MTSAT-1RC o m i n g S o o n : C l i m a t e C h a n ge M o n i t o r i n g R e p o r t 2 0 0 4
JMA has issued a series of "Climate Change
Monitoring Reports" annually since 1996. The Reports cover the achievement of our comprehensive
activities in the field of climate ranging from observation, monitoring, analysis and projection to research and development.
The latest issue, "Climate Change Monitoring
Report 2004", which covers climatic conditions ofJapan and the world for the year 2004 and recent
trends of greenhouse gases concentrations and theozone layer depletion, is going to appear in August
2005 on the TCC website.
Among the wide-range subjects, the following
are particularly highlighted in this 2004 issue:- The global mean of the surface temperatures in2004 was the fourth highest since 1880 only to
1998, 2002 and 2003.
- The mean surface temperature in Japan during
2004 was the second highest only to 1990 since1889.
- During 2004, ten tropical cyclones made landfall inJapan, breaking the previous record of six.
- The annual mean sea levels at six out of 13 tidegauge stations on the coast of Japan were the highest in 2004 since 1970.
Any comments or inquiries on this newsletter and/orthe TCC website would be much appreciated. Pleasee-mail to the following address:
tcc@climar.kishou.go.jp(Chief Editor: Shingo Yamada)Tokyo Climate Center- Concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has been continuously increasing through the instrumental observed period.
The annual mean concentration of CO2 in 2004 was larger by 1.7
ppm than that in 2003 at all of the three observatories in Japan.
- The ozone depletion over the Antarctic in 2004 was not so severe
as in 2003 when the record-size ozone hole was observed.
(Hiroko Morooka, Climate Prediction Division)

Figure 9 Annual (land only) global surface temperature anomalies from1880 to 2004
Anomalies are deviations from normal (1971-2000 average). The blue bars
indicate anomalies of annual mean surface temperature. The red lines indicate their 5-year running mean, and the green lines indicate the long-term
linear trends.

Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Climate Prediction Division, JMA
Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
TCC website: http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/index.html

4No.1 | July 2005