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Japanese ODA Loan
Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
１．Basic Information
Country: India
Project: Patna Metro Rail Construction Project (I)Loan Agreement: March 29, 2023
２．Background and Necessity of the Project(1)

Current State and Issues of the Railway Sector/Area and the Priority of
the Project in India
In recent years, India has undergone rapid urbanization, with approximately
473 million people (as of 2021), accounting for around 30 percent of the total
population, residing in cities. By 2030, it is projected that there will be 40 cities
with populations exceeding 2 million people, according to the United Nations(2018). As urbanization continues to escalate, the number of registered vehicles
has also skyrocketed, rising from around 55 million in 2001 to 230 million in 2016,as reported by the Ministry of Statistics and Works Implementation in India.
Consequently, major cities like Delhi are experiencing significant economic
losses amounting to approximately INR 14.7 trillion per year due to traffic
congestion alone, as estimated by the Boston Consulting Group (2018).
Furthermore, the spread of air pollution, including PM2.5 particles, and theresulting health hazards have become increasingly severe. In 2017, illness andother factors related to air pollution led to labor income losses of approximately
INR 2.5 trillion, with a staggering 1.7 million deaths recorded in 2019, according
to the World Bank (2021). These alarming statistics underline the urgent need to
improve urban environments.
To address these challenges, the Government of India has developed a metro
rail policy, which was last updated in 2017. This policy aims to promote thedevelopment of public transportation systems such as metros, railways, andbuses. The objectives are not only to meet the transportation demands andreducing traffic congestion resulting from recent economic growth but alsoprioritizing safety and energy efficiency. Prime Minister Modi, in 2019, announced
a plan to invest INR 100 trillion in infrastructure over the next five years. Moreover,the Government of India, as highlighted in the 2021 Budget Speech and otherVer 202208

official announcements, intends to focus on developing metro systems in not justthe eight major cities (Tier-1 cities) but also in regional core cities (Tier-2 cities)
with populations ranging from 1 to 4 million. This includes 32 additional cities,
alongside the already defined major cities such as Delhi. The government is
actively pursuing less climate intensive measures to support economic growth, inline with its commitment under the Paris Agreement's Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC) (2022), which aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions perunit of GDP to 45% of 2005 levels by 2030.
Bihar, with a population of approximately 100 million according to the 2011
census, has experienced remarkable growth in recent years. It boosts an average
GDP growth rate of 8.2% per year, surpassing the national average of 6.7% per
year. Additionally, Bihar has sustained an average population growth rate of
1.09% per year, slightly higher than the national average of 1.04% per year,
during the five-year period from 2015 to 2019, as reported by the Ministry of
Statistics and Project Implementation in India. Patna, the state capital and a Tier2 city, currently has an estimated population of approximately 2.6 million, and it
is projected to reach 5 million by 2050, according to Ontario Tech University(2021). Notably, Patna's population density is extraordinarily high, with 15,000
persons per square kilometer based on the 2011 census, a figure comparable tothat of Delhi and nearly double the density of other leading Tier-2 cities like
Lucknow, Kochi, and Jaipur. Furthermore, Patna faces severe air pollution issues,
surpassing even Delhi and ranking as the fifth most polluted city globally in termsof PM2.5 concentration. In 2018, the PM2.5 level in Patna was approximately 140µg/m3, which is nearly ten times the annual average standard set by the World
Health Organization (WHO) at 15 µg/m3. The rapid population growth andurbanisation in Tier-2 cities have contributed to the worsening of urban problems,
including air pollution, as identified by the WHO in 2018. According to theComprehensive Clean Air Action Plan for the City of Patna (2019) drafted by the
Bihar Government, the transport sector accounts for 19% of PM2.5 emissions,ranking as the third-largest contributor behind industry (28%) and household
demand (22%). Without improvements in public transportation, it is projected that
PM2.5 emissions from the transport sector will increase by approximately 88%
by 2030.
Considering these circumstances, the Government of Bihar has recognized thedevelopment of a metro system as a crucial aspect of urban development in its"Patna Master Plan 2031" (2016) and "Urban Transport Plan" (2018). The "Patna

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Metro Construction Project" aims to play a pivotal role in Patna with theconstruction of Metro Lines 1 and 2. The primary objective of this project is tomeet the growing demand for transportation while promoting urban development
centered around public transport.
(2)
Japan and JICA’s Cooperation Policy Policy and Operations in the Urban
Transport Sector
The Country Development Cooperation Policy for India (March 2016) identifies
the prioritization of 'strengthening connectivity' as a priority area. This involves
the development of transport infrastructure and other infrastructure to remove
bottlenecks and enhance connectivity within major industrial cities, economic
zones, and regions across India. The policy emphasizes the promotion of railway
development, including high-speed rail and metros. It also recognizes theimportance of 'strengthening industrial competitiveness' and supports thedevelopment of transportation networks in metropolitan areas, such as the projectin question.
The JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018), highlights the needto eliminate infrastructure bottlenecks for economic growth. It emphasizes the
project's role in promoting the development of transport hubs and networks,
including trunk and urban railways, roads, and ports, to improve connectivity
within major industrial cities, economic regions, and inter-regional connections inIndia. Furthermore, JICA’s Global Agenda for Transportation emphasizes theimportance of addressing environmental and climate change issues, promoting
low-carbon and decarbonization strategies for Urban Public Transport, andimproving maintenance and management technologies to enhance safety andthis project is in line with these policies and analyses.
Regarding Japanese ODA Loan to India, a total of 79 projects amounting to
JPY 3,359,200 million had been granted to the transport sector as of the end of
December 2022. Of these, 50 projeccts totalling JPY 2,695,800 million have been
allocated to the railway sector. This includes funding for metro projects in cities
such as Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru, Mumbai, and Ahmedabad.
(3)
Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank has prioritized the improvement of connectivity and logistics
in its Country Partnership Framework (2018-2022) and has offered barious
support to projects within the rail sector. This includes the Mumbai Urban
Transport Project, which received acceptances in 2002 and 2010 totaling USD
972 million, as well as the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor Project, approved

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in 2011, 2014, and 2015, with a total funding of USD 2,725 million.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has also been actively promoting thedevelopment of energy-efficient transportation modes as part of its Country
Partnership Strategy(2018-2022). Within the rail sector, the ADB has provided
support for several projects. This includes the Jaipur Metro, approved in 2014 for
USD 176 million, and co-financing with the New Development Bank (NDB) for
Mumbai Metro Lines 2A, 2B, and 7. The Mumbai Metro has received support fromboth the ADB (approved for USD 926 million) and the NDB (approved for USD
260 million).
It is important to note that no other donors have provided support for the Patna
Metro project.
３．Project Description(1)

Project Description
1) Project Objective
The project aims to build Metro Lines 1 and 2 in Patna, the capital of Bihar,
which will be operated in the city centre to meet the growing demand fortransport, thereby contributing to the improvement of the urban
environment, the development of the local economy and mitigation ofclimate change in the area through urban development centred on public
transport.
2) Project Components
The sections covered by the project are as follows.
➢ Line 1 (new construction): between Danapur and Khemnichak station
Approx. 11 km underground, 7 km elevated/above ground, 6
underground stations, 8 elevated/above ground stations, total approx.
18 km, 14 stations➢ Line 2 (new construction): between Patna station and New ISBT station
Approx. 8 km underground, 7 km elevated/aboveground, 7
underground stations, 5 elevated/aboveground stations, total approx.
15 km, 12 stations
Components eligible for Japanese ODA loan in the above sections are: thebelow a) civil works in the underground section of Line 1 b) - e) and i) in all
sections of Lines 1 and 2, except for c), where the track laying in the rail
yard and procurement of turnouts are not eligible for Japanese ODA Loan.
Components not covered by Japanese ODA Loan are to be borne by thecounterpart fund.

Ver 202208(a) Civil works(b) Procurement of rolling stock (approx. 100 coaches)(c) Procurement and installation of rails and other equipmenit(d) Electricity and machinery(e) Signalling & train control system(f) Substation and distribution equipment works(g) Construction of Depot(h) Automatic Fare Collecton system (AFC)(i) Consulting services (support for preparation of bidding documents,
bidding document reviews, bidding and procurement work assistance,
construction supervision, support for work related to environmental andsocial considerations, operation and maintenance support (including
human resource development and organisational capacity
strengthening), financial management and non-fare revenue
enhancement, regional development support, transportation planningsupport, awareness raising activities, etc.)
3) Project Beneficiaries (Target Group）
Metro users (approx. 0.71million) and all Patna citizens (approx. 2.6
million) who will benefit from reduced congestion due to Metro
(2)

(3)

(4)

improvements
Estimated Project Cost
306,585 million Yen (Japanese ODA loan (for the tranche I): 98,612 million
Yen)
Schedule
May 2023 to October 2029 (80 months in total). The commencement ofoperation for all the lines (October 2028) shall be the time of the Proect’s
completion.
Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing Agency: Patna Metro Rail Corporation Limited (PMRCL)
4) Operation and Maintenance Agency: Same as above 3).

(5)

(6)

Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
1) Japan’s Activity: N/A
2) Other Donors’Activity: N/A
Environmental and Social Consideration / Cross-Sectoral Issues / Gender

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Category
1) Environmental and Social Consideration:① Category: A② Reason for Categorization: Because the project falls under the railway
sector and sensitive characteristics listed in the JICA Guidelines forEnvironmental and Social Considerations (promulgated in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit : An Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
report for the project has been prepared and approved by PMRCL in July
2020, although it is not required under Indian domestic law.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures : Measures are being taken to ensure that air
quality, water quality, waste, noise and vibration during construction meetnational emission and environmental standards, including water spraying,
wastewater treatment, overburden disposal and installation of soundinsulation walls. Noise mitigation measures during service will include theinstallation of sound barriers and vibration mitigation measures will
include the installation of elastic rubber under the track.
⑤ Natural Environment : The project area is adjacent to the Sanjay Gandhi
Botanical Park ("SGB Park"), which is designated as a protected area by
the Government of Bihar. The SGB Park is managed by the State
Government as a botanical and zoological garden, and in implementing
the project, interviews were conducted with relevant parties and experts,
and measures were put together to minimise any additional impact of the
project on flora and fauna, etc. In addition, the project site is located in
the Key Biodiversity Area ("KBA"). However, as the project site is limited
to the existing trunk road, it is assumed that the undesirable impacts on
the natural environment will not be significant. Of among theapproximately 1,400 trees in the project area, 103 trees that are subject
to felling in accordance with the State's legislation will be replanted at a
cost of three trees per tree, and all the remaining trees will betransplanted.
⑥ Social Environment : The project involves the acquisition of
approximately 47.6 ha of land (of which approximately 35.7 ha is privately
owned) and the involuntary resettlement of approximately 46 households
and 227 people, and land acquisition is being carried out in accordancewith the resettlement plan prepared in accordance with the country's law
and the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations.

Ver 202208⑦ Other/Monitoring: Under the supervision of the PMRCL, monitoring will
be carried out by contractors during construction and by external
consultants commissioned by the PMRCL during service for air quality,
water quality, waste, noise and vibration, and the presence of valuablespecies in the construction area. In addition, internal monitoring by
PMRCL and external monitoring by third parties will be carried out forland acquisition, resettlement and livelihood restoration assistance. In
addition, Bihar will set up a grievance office for the implementation ofcompensation and other measures for the relocated residents.
2) Cross-Sectoral Issues:① Climate change: The impact on climate change mitigation (estimatedGHG emission reductions) of the project is expected to be 72,000
tonnes/year CO2 equivalent (estimated as of 2030), contributing toclimate change action (mitigation measures). The Government of India
has set a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions per unit of GDP
to 45% of 2005 levels by 2030, as part of its Nationally Determined
Contribution (NDC) (2022) under the Paris Agreement, and the project is
expected to contribute to this target.
② Disability considerations: Station and carriages (lifts, escalators, internal
broadcasting, Braille blocks, wheelchair spaces, etc.) will be designed inaccordance with Indian domestic laws and regulations, withconsideration for use by the elderly, disabled and others.
③ Infectious disease control: The contract with the construction operator will
include the implementation of AIDS control measures, such as prevention
and awareness-raising activities for workers. In addition, as part of efforts
to prevent the spread of new coronavirus infection, the implementing
agencies have agreed on a list of measures (36 items in total) to be taken
at the time of project formation and project implementation, and clarified
the items of activities such as the maintenance of quarantine equipment
and materials and the working environment, including the disseminationof a code of conduct, construction supervision and awareness raising.
The implementing agencies will receive quarterly reports on the status of
implementation of these measures, so that the impact of the virus can beclosely monitored throughout the project implementation phase, and theimplementing agencies can take flexible and appropriate measures.
3) Gender Category:Ver 202208■GI (S) (Gender Activity Integration project)<Details of Activities/Reason for Categorization>
As a result of the gender analysis, issues relating to the safe and comfortable
movement of women were identified. The project plans to introduce womenonly carriages, provide priority seating for passengers requiring assistance,
including women, and install separate toilets for men and women in stationbuildings, and this project has set the operational distance of women-onlycarriages as an indicator. In addition, when the project is implemented, it isplanned to assign and appoint female staff to the implementing agencies andpromote the employment of female workers at construction sites.
(7)

Other Important Issues : N/A

４. Targeted Outcomes(1)
Quantitative Effects
1) Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Indicator

Baseline(Actual value in 2022)

Target (2030)[2 years after projectcompletion]Line 1-

92.2

Line 2-

92.2

Running distance(thousand km/day)Line 1-

19.1

Line 2-

13.5

Running distance of
women-only cars

Line 1-

5.7

Line 2-

4.5

Number of running trains(trains/day)Line 1-

166

Line 2-

166

Volume of Trasportation

Line 1-

3.5(million
passengers/km/day)Line 2-

1.7

Line 1-

534

Line 2

-

267

Total

-

26.3

Operating rate (%/year)(thousand km/day)Number of Passengers(thousand persons/day)Income from passengers(million INR/day)(2)

Qualitative Effects

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Mitigation of traffic congestion, air pollution and climate change burdens in
Patna, improvement of economic efficiency by ensuring safe and punctual travel,
promotion of planned urban development and promotion of economic
development.
(3)Internal Rate of Return
Based on the assumptions listed below, the economic internal rate of return(EIRR) for the project is 9.61% and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is
2.53%.
【EIRR】
Cost: project costs, operation and maintenance costs, etc. (all excluding taxes)
Benefit：Effect on reduced journey times for metro and road transport users,
reduced vehicle maintenance costs for metro and road transport users, reduced
road transport infrastructure maintenance costs, reduced road transport
accidents, reduced emissions of environmental pollutants from road transport.
Project Life：40 years【FIRR】
Cost：project cost, operation and maintenance costs, etc. (all including taxes)
Benefit：Fare Box Revenue, advertising income, station development, tenant
income, etc.
Project Life：40 years
５. External Factors and Risk Control(1)(2)

Preconditions: N/A
External Factors: N/A

６. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
The results of the ex-post evaluation of the Metro Manila Metropolitan Area
Traffic Congestion Relief Project, Japanese ODA loan to the Republic of thePhilippines (evaluation year: 2008), etc., indicate that the establishment of afinancially independent project implementation system is important from theperspective of ensuring appropriate operation and maintenance management. In
addition, the results of the ex-post evaluation of the Delhi Rapid Transit System
Construction Project and its Phase 2 Project (evaluation years: 2010 and 2015,
respectively), etc., have indicated that the technical strengthening of internal
human resources with a view to implementing the continuation phase of the
DMRC has been evaluated as a good practice. The reasons for this include thefact that internal human resources have improved their technical capacity bygaining experience through working with the Japanese ODA loan consultants

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from an early stage, as well as contributing to the dissemination of metro
technology in Japan and abroad by undertaking external projects such as training
for other metro management bodies. In addition, it has been pointed out that
under the Bangkok Mass Transit Network Development Project (Purple Line) (I)(II) (evaluation year 2018), a Japanese ODA loan to Thailand, the bus routes(feeder network) connecting metro stations and residential areas areunderdeveloped, which is one of the factors hindering the promotion of Purple
Line usage. This is one of the factors hindering the promotion of the Purple Line.
The project will support PMRCL's efforts to implement measures to strengthen
its financial base and improve accessibility to stations for passengers throughconsulting services. In addition to strengthening internal human resources
through a memorandum of cooperation with DMRC, which PMRCL has alreadyconcluded, the project will also transfer technology related to project supervision
to PMRCL staff through the consulting services of the project.
７. Evaluation Results
The project aims to meet the increasing demand for transport by constructing
a metro in Patna, the capital city of Bihar State, which is in line with India's
development challenges and policies as well as the cooperation policy andanalysis of Japan and JICA. It is also in line with SDGs Goal 8 'Promote sustained,
inclusive and sustainable economic growth and productive and rewarding jobs
for all', Goal 9 'Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainableindustrialisation and foster innovation', Goal 11 'Build inclusive, safe, resilient andsustainable cities and human settlements Building', and Goal 13 'Urgently
address climate change and its impacts', there is a strong need to support theimplementation of the project as it is also considered to contribute to Goal 13'Urgently address climate change and its impacts'.
８. Plan for Future Evaluation(1)

Indicators to be Used(2)

As indicated in Sections 4 (1)~(3).
Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: two years after the project completion