Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: India
Project: Tamil Nadu Biodiversity Conservation and Greening Project for Climate
Change Response
Loan Agreement: March 31, 2022
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1)

Current State of and Issues of

the Biodiversity and Forest Sector and thePriority of the Project in Tamil Nadu, India.
Eighty-five percent of India’s land is said to be highly vulnerable to natural
disasters (such as cyclones, floods, and landslide disasters), and there areconcerns that such disasters may become more severe due to climate change.
India is the third-largest generator of greenhouse gases, one of the causes ofclimate change, after China and the U.S., and is expected to emit more
greenhouse gases as its economy grows (according to a 2015 announcement by
the Indian government about its nationally determined contribution (“NDC”) under
the Paris Agreement).
On the other hand, India has diverse ecosystems thanks to its broad range of
geography. These diverse ecosystems, as “ecosystem services,” are benefits
provided by nature and perform a wide range of functions that help mitigate andadapt to climate change, such as carbon storage, water recharge, soil erosion
control, soil conservation, and flood mitigation. However, recently it is considered
problematic that urbanization, population growth, rapid economic development,
and other socio-economic changes have reduced the country’s biodiversity,
which is an important element for maintaining the diverse ecosystems (State ofEnvironment Report, India 2015).
Under these circumstances, at the 26th Session of the Conference of the Parties
to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26), thegovernment of India set an NDC target of creating forests that would absorb 2.5
to 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide from 2021 to 2030 and promised to cut its
greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2070. In the Green India Mission
established by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change in 2014,
the government also set a target of increasing ecosystem services, such ascarbon storage and water recharge, covering ten million hectares over ten years1

as climate change measures. In addition, in the Draft National Forest Policy 2018,the ministry set contribution to climate change mitigation and adaption as one of
the major goals of the country’s forest and biodiversity regeneration andconservation activities to strengthen concrete efforts toward this end.
Tamil Nadu, a southern state of India with a population of about 72 million, isendowed with rich and diverse ecosystems owing to its 1,076-km coastline,
14.3% of the country’s total coastline, and being home to one of the world’s 36
biodiversity hotspots (regions with significant levels of biodiversity that are
threatened by human habitation). These diverse ecosystems have provided local
residents with a wide range of ecosystem service benefits, such as forest andmarine resources, habitats for wildlife, and tourism resources.
In that state, a Japanese ODA loan project entitled the “Tamil Nadu Afforestation
Project” (the loan agreement (“L/A”) for the first phase was signed in FY1996,
and that for the second phase in FY2004) was conducted to increase forest
coverage. A subsequent Japanese ODA loan project, called the “Tamil Nadu
Biodiversity Conservation and Greening Project” (the L/A was signed in FY2010;
the “Previous Project”) further increased forest coverage by planting trees outside
forest areas and conserved biodiversity by improving wildlife habitats insanctuaries and undertaking other activities. These projects helped lift the state’s
forest coverage from 13.1% in 1995 to 20.3% in 2019 (India State of Forest
Report (ISFR) 1995 and 2019).
Although JICA’s past assistance led to some achievements as shown above,the state’s ecosystems keep deteriorating. Examples of such deterioration
include excessive loads on forest resources brought by local residents’ use offorest products and other resources to earn a living, the spread of highly fertile
exotic plants (areas penetrated by exotic plants extend across about 3,000
square kilometers (Tamil Nadu Forest Department, 2019)), and a decrease inmarine resources caused by increased fishing activities. In addition, the state has
confirmed that more than 500 animal and plant species are on the brink ofextinction (Tamil Nadu Department of Environment), coral bleaching is occurring(in 2010, about 10% of local coral reefs were bleached due to a rise in ocean
temperatures (NABARD Consultancy Services Ltd., 2015)), seaweed beds are
decreasing (Tamil Nadu Forest Department), as is mangrove coverage (in 2019,mangrove coverage fell about 8% from the 2017 level (ISFR 2017 and 2019)).
Such ecosystem degradation also impacts on the local society and economy. For
example, rapid economic development and urbanization (the state’s urban
2population ratio increased from 34.2% in 1991 to 48.5% in 2011 (the national
censuses 1991 and 2011)) has brought human activity areas and wildlife habitats
closer, causing increased friction between humans and wildlife (such as humandeaths (an annual average of 60 deaths) and injuries, crop damage, and wildlife
deaths (Tamil Nadu Forest Department)) and resultant annual compensation of
INR 50 million (about JPY 76.5 million) for victims (Tamil Nadu Forest
Department).
The emerging impacts of climate change have prompted the state to take action
for the biodiversity and forest sector from the following perspectives. First, Tamil
Nadu is committed to contributing to climate change adaptation. The state has
experienced frequent and severe natural disasters caused by climate change,
including landslides, droughts, heat waves, high tides, and floods, which haveannually affected about 5,000 households over the last few years (Tamil Nadu
State Disaster Management Authority, 2021). Since reducing such natural
disaster risks is a pressing task, the state is working to control and reduce
disasters not only by building artificial structures, but also by instigating
biodiversity and forest conservation activities that also help build land resilience,such as soil erosion control, flood mitigation, and tide control. Second, the stateis committed to helping mitigate climate change. Climate change seriously affects
the entire world as well as India. Therefore, in line with the targets of the NDC
and the Green India Mission mentioned above, the state government is also
implementing the national policy by taking climate change mitigation measures
such as regenerating and conserving forests (which absorb and store carbon
dioxide), increasing production of sustainable forest products, and strengthening
forest product supply chains.
Tamil Nadu has formulated concrete plans and strived to improve ecosystems
and tackle climate change, which have made the state a role model in India. In
the State Forest Policy 2018 (2018), the state government identified climatechange measures through strong and resilient forests as one of its top priorities,
and has shown its commitment to providing necessary resources to the Forest
Department. In the Draft State Action Plan on Climate Change 2.0 (2019), thestate government also demonstrated its commitment to climate change measures,
including increasing forest coverage (mitigation and adaptation measures),strengthening biodiversity conservation efforts (adaptation measures), andimproving the livelihoods and building the climate change capacity of residents
who depend on forest resources (adaptation measures). Furthermore, in line with3

the Draft State Action Plan on Climate Change 2.0 (2019), the state government
launched the Tamil Nadu Climate Change Mission (2021) to implement aneffective climate change strategy.
In line with the state’s policies outlined above, the Tamil Nadu Biodiversity
Conservation and Greening Project for Climate Change Response (the “Project”)
aims to take climate change measures (mitigation and adaptation) and improve
local ecosystems in areas not targeted by the Previous Project, using provenmethods tested in the Previous Project. To achieve this aim, the Project willconduct activities to conserve biodiversity, mitigate friction between humans andwildlife, strengthen forest product supply chains, improve livelihoods, andstrengthen the organizational structure of the Forest Department. For this reason,
the Project is considered an important project in the country’s biodiversity andforest sector.
(2)
Japan’s and JICA’s Cooperation Policy and Operations in the Biodiversity
and Forest Sector
The Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016), formulated by theJapanese government, sees “supporting sustainable and inclusive growth” as apriority area and shows the Japanese government’s support for the biodiversity
and forest sector in tackling environmental and climate change issues. The JICA
Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018) shows JICA’s commitment topromoting cooperation in addressing environmental and climate change
challenges, including forest and disaster management. The Project is therefore
consistent with this policy and analysis. Additionally, at the G7 Cornwall Summitthat took place in June 2021, the Japanese government promised to strengthen
its support for a transition to a low-carbon society and climate change adaptation.
The Project will also help achieve some of the Sustainable Development Goals,
namely: Goal 1 (eradication of poverty), Goal 13 (action against climate change),
Goal 14 (sustainable development of marine resources, including coastal areas),and Goal 15 (promoting the sustainable use and management of terrestrial
ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation). For this reason, JICA’s support for
implementing the Project is crucial.
(3)
Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank provided financial assistance (a loan of about USD 15.36 million
and a grant of about USD 8.14 million) to the Biodiversity Conservation and Rural
Livelihoods Improvement Project (from 2011 to 2018), which aimed to4mainstream biodiversity conservation outcomes. In Tamil Nadu, a landscapeconservation capacity-building program was provided to foresters and otherofficials.
In addition, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) helped India formulate its
biodiversity conservation plan and action plan, and provided it with financial
assistance (a grant of about USD 968,000) (from 1998 to 2008). In the Project forConservation and Sustainable Use of the Gulf of Mannar Biosphere Reserve’s
Coastal Biodiversity (from 2001 to 2008), the GEF also helped establish the Gulfof Mannar Biosphere Reserve Trust, an organization promoting environmental
understanding about the reserve.
3. Project Description(1)
Project Objective
The Project aims to take climate change measures (mitigation and adaptation)and improve ecosystems in Tamil Nadu by conducting activities to conserve
biodiversity, mitigate friction between humans and wildlife, strengthen forest
product supply chains, improve livelihoods, and reinforce the organizational
structure of the Forest Department, thereby contributing to the state’s sustainablesocio-economic development.
(2)
Project Site/Target Area
State of Tamil Nadu (with a population of about 72 million (2011))(3)
Project Components
1) Biodiversity conservation (including planting trees, developing mangrove
forests, restoring coral reefs and seaweed beds, eliminating invasive alien
species, conducting research, and raising the awareness of residents)
2) Human wildlife conflict measures (including developing corridors for wildlife,
establishing barriers against wildlife, and taking other measures against
animal damage)3) Strengthen forest product supply chains (including conducting market
research for forest products and creating a portal site for supply chain use)4) Livelihood improvement activities (including providing vocational training toresidents near forests, raising their awareness, and promoting ecotourism)
5) Management capacity development (including training its staff andconducting a pilot study on biodiversity)
6) Provide consulting services (including assisting with project management
and monitoring, promoting cooperation with research institutes and otherstakeholders, giving technical guidance to the Forest Department, and5

supporting environmental and social considerations)
The Forest Department will select subprojects related to project components (1)to (4) that meet certain requirements, such as not negatively affecting local
ecosystems or indigenous people, considering the requests of local residents
who will actually be involved in the operation, maintenance, and management of
the subprojects.
(4) Estimated Project Cost
14,083 million Yen (Japanese ODA loan: 10,535 million Yen)
(5)
Schedule
March 2022 to July 2030 (101 months in total)
It is deemed to be completed once all the activities are completed (July 2030).
(6)
Project Implementation Structure
1)
Borrower: President of India
2)
Guarantor: None
Executing Agency: Tamil Nadu Forest Department, Government ofTamil Nadu
4)
Operation and Maintenance System: Same as above Agency(7) Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
1) Japan’s Activities:
3)

The Project will use the exotic plant elimination strategy and manual
formulated in the Tamil Nadu Biodiversity Conservation and Afforestation
Project. In addition, through the National Workshop, annually hosted in turn byagencies executing Japanese ODA loan projects in the forest sector, and theSustainable Forest Management and Biodiversity Conservation Training
Course for India, good practices and lessons from other projects in India’s
forest sector and Japanese experience will be used to improve the Project’s
implementation and methods.
2) Other Donors’ Activity:
In cooperation with the World Wildlife Fund and the Wildlife Institute of India,
the Project will conduct research to formulate policies on mitigating friction
between humans and wildlife, and other issues.(8) Environmental and Social
Consideration/Cross-Sectoral Issues/Gender Category
1) Environmental and Social Considerations① Category: FI①Categorized under the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social
Considerations (published in April 2010) because subprojects cannot be6

identified before JICA’s approval for financing, and such subprojects may
produce environmental impacts.
①Other/Monitoring: In the Project, the executing agency will categorize each
subproject and take the necessary measures for each category under India's
domestic laws and the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations,with the help of consultants employed using the Japanese ODA loan. The
subprojects will not include Category A projects.

2)

Cross-Sectoral Issues① Climate Change: The Project will boost disaster management andreduction efforts, including soil erosion control and flood mitigation, byconducting afforestation and other activities. As a result, the Project will
reduce the negative impacts of climate change and assist with climatechange measures (adaptation measures). Since the Project is expected toannually reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 243,000 tons throughafforestation, restoration of coral reefs and seaweed beds, and otheractivities, it will also be helpful in taking climate change measures(mitigation measures).
② Poverty Alleviation/Poverty Considerations: Mainly for designatedcommunities who are mostly poor and highly dependent on forest
resources, the Project will conduct activities to improve living standards,
such as activities to improve livelihoods and promote ecotourism. The
executing agency had meetings about these activities with residents insome target areas, and has confirmed that these activities will not
negatively affect their lives or cultures. The executing agency will formulate
guidelines on the activities together with residents in other target areas
before the Project starts, and will conduct the activities in accordance withthe guidelines.
③ Measures against Infectious Diseases Including HIV/AIDS: To prevent the
spread of COVID-19 infections, during screening, the executing agency
agreed to the list of measures to taken when formulating and implementing
the project (a total of 36 measures) and has clarified what to do. Measures
include: improving working conditions, such as supplying materials andequipment for epidemic prevention, and promoting the understanding of acode of conduct; supervising project work; and raising workers’ awarenessof infectious diseases. JICA will carefully observe the impacts of COVID19 through the Project’s implementation phase by receiving quarterly
7

reports on implementation of the measures from the executing agency, andmonitor the executing agency’s commitment to ensure it takes flexible andappropriate action.
3) Gender Category:■ Gender Informed (Significant) (Gender activity integration project)<Details of Activities/Reason for Categorization> The women in the target rural
areas have limited opportunities for training and employment. Therefore, theProject’s livelihood improvement activities will involve efforts led by self-helpgroups, consisting mainly of women, and readily reflect the wishes of women.
(9) Other Important Issues: The Project will pursue academic collaboration in
biodiversity conservation studies between Japanese universities and research
institutes, Indian universities, and the Tamil Nadu government’s research
institutes. The Forest Department will formulate, implement, and assess plansfor biodiversity conservation and other activities in cooperation with local NGOs.

8

4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Baseline(Actual value in

Indicator

Target (2032)[2 years after

2021)

project
completion]

Increase in carbon storage throughafforestation in urban and peri-urban
areas (metric tonnes)

N/A

400,000

Increase in the area of trees outside
forests (TOF) (ha)N/A

60,000Area of mangrove forests planted along
the eastern coastline (ha)

N/A

1,050

Area of coral reefs restored in the Gulfof Mannar (ha)

N/A

3.6

N/A

300

Rate of increase of incidents/damage
from contact with wildlife (%)(Note 1)

<10

Rate of increase of annual householdincome in the villages targeted by the
livelihood improvement activities (%)(Note 1)25

Number of Forest Department officials
participating in training during the
Project period (people)

N/A

5,400

Area of seaweed beds restored in the
Gulf of Mannar (ha)(Note 1) The baseline will be determined from the results of a baseline survey
conducted after the Project starts.
(2) Qualitative Effects
Restored and strengthened functions of ecosystem services, enhanced
resilience against climate change, mitigation of climate change, and social
participation of women, the poor, and the vulnerable.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the assumptions listed below, the economic internal rate of return(EIRR) for the Project is 13.3%. Since generating revenue is not an objective of
the Project, the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) has not been calculated.
9

[EIRR]
Cost: Project cost, and operating and maintenance expenses (excluding tax)
Benefit: Reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and income from farmers’
production of forest products
Project Life: 40 years
5. External Factors and Risk Control(1)(2)

Preconditions: None
External Factors: None

6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
The ex-post evaluation (FY2018) of a technical cooperation project for China,
the “Project on Forest Restoration after the Earthquake in Sichuan Province,”found that establishing technical guidelines and model technology related toforestry and forest conservation had helped the executing agency secure agovernment budget and promote application of the project’s outcomes. This
Project will establish a system that enables the Forestry Department to maximize
the Project’s outcomes on its own by establishing model technology andimproving existing technology through research, development, andimplementation of biodiversity conservation technology.
The ex-post evaluation (FY2017) of a Japanese ODA loan project for India, the“Tamil Nadu Afforestation Project (Phase 2),” found that an effect indicator of“forest coverage of the afforestation areas (tree crown density)” needed to be
improved to determine project outcomes more accurately. This is because thedata on forest coverage and tree crown density included data from other areas.
The lesson from that project was that indicators should be those that canaccurately show project effectiveness and be monitored by the executing agency.
In addition, interim research on the Previous Project’s impact indicates the needto promote marketing to further support the afforestation activities, specifically byorganizing farmers and strengthening connections with market consumers. The
Project will assess its outcomes as accurately as possible by using remotesensing and other technologies to measure carbon storage, forest coverage, andother data in detail. Furthermore, the Project will strengthen forest product supply
chains and support marketing promotion by organizing farmers, establishing asystem that enables consumers and suppliers to share market information, andtaking other measures.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project is consistent both with India’s development challenges and policies
10and with Japan’s and JICA’s cooperation policies and analyses. The Project aims
to take climate change measures (mitigation and adaptation) and improve
ecosystems in Tamil Nadu by conducting activities to conserve biodiversity,
mitigate friction between humans and wildlife, strengthen forest product supply
chains, improve livelihoods, and reinforce the organizational structure of theForest Department, thereby contributing to the state’s sustainable socioeconomic development. The Project will also help achieve some of the
Sustainable Development Goals, namely: Goal 1 (eradication of poverty), Goal
13 (action against climate change), Goal 14 (sustainable development of marine
resources, including coastal areas), and Goal 15 (promoting the sustainable use
and management of terrestrial ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation).
Therefore, JICA’s support for implementing the Project is crucial.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As shown in Section 4.
(2) Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after the project’s completion11