No. 44

Spring 2016
ContentsPage

El Niño Outlook (May 2016 – November 2016)

1

JM A’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Boreal Summer 2016

3

Warm Season Outlook for Summer 2016 in Japan

5

Summary of the 2015/2016 Asian Winter Monsoon

6

TCC contributions to Regional Climate Outlook Forums in Asia

14

TCC Experts Visit Vietnam

15

TCC website revamp

16

El Niño Outlook (May 2016 – November 2016)
It is likely that the current El Niño event will end in springand La Niña conditions will develop in summer. (This article
was written based on El Niño outlook issued on 12 May
2016.)El Niño/La Niña
In April 2016, the NINO.3 SST was above normal witha deviation of +0.8°C, which was 0.8°C lower than thecorresponding figure for March. The five-month runningmean of the NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.5°C or above
for 21 consecutive months up to February. SSTs (Figures 1
and 3 (a)) were remarkably above normal in the central
equatorial Pacific in April, and close to normal in the eastern part, where below normal values were also observed insome areas. Subsurface temperatures were below normal inalmost whole regions from the western to the eastern partof the equatorial Pacific (Figures 2 and 3 (b)). Atmospheric

convective activity was above normal near the date line in
the equatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower
troposphere (known as trade winds) were weaker thannormal. These atmospheric conditions were consistent with
common patterns observed in past El Niño events, while
the oceanic conditions indicate a decay of the current El
Niño conditions.
The subsurface cold waters observed in April from thewestern to the eastern equatorial Pacific are expected tomigrate eastward in the months ahead, and a tendency toward even cooler-than-normal sea surface conditions will
be seen in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Outputs from
JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the NINO.3
SST will be below normal in boreal summer and autumn(Figure 4). In conclusion, it is likely that the current El
Niño event will end in spring, and La Niña conditions willdevelop in summer.

(a)

(a)

(b)

(b)

Figure 1 Monthly mean (a) sea surface temperatures(SSTs) and (b) SST anomalies in the Indianand Pacific Ocean areas for April 2016
The contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). Thebase period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

Figure 2 Monthly mean depth-longitude cross sectionsof (a) temperatures and (b) temperature
anomalies in the equatorial Indian and Pacific
Ocean areas for April 2016
The contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). Thebase period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

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No. 44 | Spring 2016

(a)

(b)

Figure 3 Time-longitude cross sections of (a) SST and (b) ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies along the equator in
the Indian and Pacific Ocean areas
OHCs are defined here as vertical averaged temperatures in the top 300 m. The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

Western Pacific and Indian Ocean
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific(NINO.WEST) region was below normal in April, and islikely to be above normal in boreal summer and autumn.
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean(IOBW) region was above normal in April. The value islikely to remain above normal until boreal summer to movegradually closer to normal in autumn.
Impacts
The ongoing El Niño conditions are considered to havecaused the warmer-than-normal conditions observed from
Eastern Japan to Okinawa-Amami and as well as the wetter-than-normal conditions and the shorter-than-normal
sunshine durations observed in Western Japan in April
2016.
In the same month, warmer-than-normal conditions inWest Africa, regions near Madagascar, the southern part ofIndia, Southeast Asia, and the eastern part of Australia wereconsistent with common patterns observed in past El Niño
events.

Figure 4 Outlook of NINO.3 SST deviation produced by
the El Niño prediction modelThis figure shows a time series of monthly NINO.3 SST
deviations. The thick line with closed circles shows observed SST deviations, and the boxes show the values produced for up to six months ahead by the El Niño prediction
model. Each box denotes the range into which the SST deviation is expected to fall with a probability of 70%.

(Ichiro Ishikawa, Climate Prediction Division)* The SST normal for the NINO.3 region (5°S - 5°N, 150°W - 90°W) is defined as an monthly average over a sliding
30-year period (1985-2014 for this year).
* The SST normals for the NINO.WEST region (Eq. - 15°N, 130°E - 150°E) and the IOBW region (20°S - 20°N, 40°E 100°E) are defined as linear extrapolations with respect to a sliding 30-year period, in order to remove the effects of significant long-term warming trends observed in these regions.

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No. 44 | Spring 2016

JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Boreal Summer 2016
Based on JMA’s seasonal ensemble prediction system,sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are predicted tobe below normal in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean
during this boreal summer, suggesting a likely transition to
La Niña conditions. Conversely, SST anomalies are predicted to be above normal in the Indian Ocean. In association with warm SST conditions, active convection is predicted over the Indian Ocean. Conversely, inactive convection is predicted over the western Pacific Ocean.
1.

Introduction
This article outlines JMA’s dynamical seasonal ensemble prediction for boreal summer 2016 (June – August,referred to as JJA), which was used as a basis for JMA’s
operational warm-season outlook issued on 25 May 2016.
The outlook is based on the seasonal ensemble prediction
system of the Coupled Atmosphere-ocean General Circu-

lation Model (CGCM). See the column below for system
details.
Section 2 outlines global SST anomaly predictions, andSection 3 describes the associated circulation field predictions for the tropics and sub-tropics. Finally, the circulation
fields predicted for the mid- and high latitudes of theNorthern Hemisphere are discussed in Section 4.
2.

SST anomalies (Figure 5)
Figure 5 shows predicted SSTs (contours) and related
anomalies (shading) for JJA. Below normal anomalies are
predicted in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean throughout
the period, suggesting a likely transition to La Niña conditions. Conversely, above normal anomalies are predicted in
the Indian Ocean, reflecting the Indian Ocean Capacitor
Effect which is well observed in post El Niño years.

Figure 5
Predicted SSTs (contours) and SST anomalies (shading) for June–August 2016(ensemble mean of 51 members)

3.

Prediction for the tropics and sub-tropics (Figure
6)
Figure 6 (a) shows predicted precipitation (contours) andrelated anomalies (shading) for JJA. In association withwarm SST conditions, above normal anomalies are predicted over the Indian Ocean. At the same time, it is likelythat the summer monsoon will be more active than normal
years in South Asia. Conversely, below normal anomalies
are predicted over the western Pacific Ocean and the Indochina Peninsula. Accordingly, it is likely that the summer
monsoons will be more inactive than normal years in thoseregions.
Figure 6 (b) shows predicted velocity potential (contours) and related anomalies (shading) at the upper troposphere (200hPa) for JJA. Negative (i.e., divergent) anomalies are predicted over the Indian Ocean in association withactive convection. Conversely, positive (i.e., convergent)anomalies are predicted over the western Pacific Ocean inassociation with inactive convection. These are consistent
with the typical atmospheric circulation pattern well ob-

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served in association with the Indian Ocean Capacitor Effect.
Figure 6 (c) shows predicted stream functions (contours)
and related anomalies (shading) at the upper troposphere(200hPa) for JJA. Negative anomalies (i.e., cyclonic) are
predicted in Southeast Asia in association with inactive
convection over the western Pacific Ocean, suggesting aweak Tibetan High over those regions. Conversely, positive anomalies (i.e., anticyclonic) are predicted over West
Asia in association with active convection over the Indian
Ocean.
Figure 6 (d) shows predicted stream functions (contours)
and related anomalies (shading) at the lower troposphere(850hPa) for JJA. Equatorial symmetric anticyclonicanomalies are predicted over the Maritime Continent inassociation with inactive convection over the western Pacific Ocean. Conversely, equatorial symmetric cyclonicanomalies are predicted over the western Indian Ocean inassociation with active convection over the Indian Ocean.

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(a) RAIN(b) CHI200(c) PSI200(d) PSI850

Figure 6 Predicted atmospheric fields from 60°N – 60°S for June–August 2016 (ensemble mean of 51 members)(a) Precipitation (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 2 mm/day.
(b) Velocity potential at 200 hPa (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 2 × 10 6 m2/s.
(c) Stream function at 200 hPa (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 16 × 10 6 m2/s.
(d) Stream function at 850 hPa (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 5 × 106 m2/s.
4.

Prediction for the mid- and high- latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere(Figure 7)
Figure 7 (a) shows predicted geopotential
heights (contours) and related anomalies(shading) at 500hPa for JJA. Positive anomalies are predicted over most of the Northern
Hemisphere, suggesting a high thickness inassociation with post El Niño conditions and a
global warming trend.
Figure 7 (b) shows predicted sea levelpressure (contours) and related anomalies(shading) for JJA. Positive anomalies are predicted over the northwestern Pacific Ocean,suggesting a stronger North Pacific High thannormal.
(Takashi Yamada,
Climate Prediction Division)(b) SLP(a) Z500

Figure 7 Predicted atmospheric fields from 60°N - 60°S for
June–August 2015 (ensemble mean of 51 members)(a) Geopotential height at 500hPa (contours) and anomaly (shading).
The contour interval is 60 m.
(b) Sea level pressure (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 4hPa.

JMA’s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
JMA operates a seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) using the Coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation
Model (CGCM) to make seasonal predictions beyond a one-month time range. The EPS produces perturbed initial conditions by means of a combination of the initial perturbation method and the lagged average forecasting (LAF) method.
The prediction is made using 51 members from the latest four initial dates (thirteen members are run every five days).
Details of the prediction system and verification maps based on 30-year hindcast experiments (1981–2010) are available
at http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/.

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Warm Season Outlook for Summer 2016 in JapanIn February 2016, JMA issued its outlook for the coming
summer (June – August) for Japan and updated it in Marchand April based on output from its seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). This article outlines the update of 25
April.
1. Outlook summary (Figure 8)
 In northern, eastern and western Japan, warm-season
precipitation amounts are expected to be above normal
due to significant influence from active fronts andsoutherly wet flows.
 In western Japan and Okinawa/Amami, seasonal mean
temperatures are expected to be above normal.
 In midsummer after the rainy season (Baiu), below-normal numbers of sunny days are expected innorthern and eastern Japan, while above-normal numbers are expected in Okinawa/Amami.
2. Outlook backgroundFigure 9 shows a conceptual diagram highlighting expected large-scale ocean/atmosphere characteristics forsummer. An outline of the background to the outlook is
given below.
 Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern tropical
Pacific are expected to be near or below normal in the
Northern Hemisphere in summer. Accordingly, the development of La Niña conditions during summer in the
Northern Hemisphere is more likely than a continua-

Mean Temperature
Summer (June – August)tion of ENSO-neutral conditions. Meanwhile, SSTs
over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) are expected to be
above normal.
 In association with expected SST anomalies in the tropics, convection in the tropics is expected to be more active than normal over the Indian Ocean and less active
than normal over the Southeast Asian monsoon region.
 The Tibetan High is expected to be weaker than normal
in association with inactive convection over the Southeast Asian monsoon region. Accordingly, the subtropical jet stream, which flows along the northern edge of
the Tibetan High, is expected to shift southward of its
normal position from the Eurasian continent to the areaeast of Japan.
 Expansion of the North Pacific High is expected to bestronger than normal to its western part (i.e., from thesouthern part of Japan to Okinawa/Amami) and weaker
than normal to its northern part (i.e., around northern
Japan). As the North Pacific High is likely to be stronger than normal in the south of Japan, wet southerly
flows into the front line along its northern edge are expected. This pattern (i.e., the combination of a stronger-than-normal North Pacific High and more frontal activity over the main island of Japan) is similar to thenegative phase of the Pacific-Japan teleconnection pattern.
(continued overleaf)

Precipitation

Tercile Probability (%)
Below : Normal : Above

Summer (June – August)

Tercile Probability (%)
Below : Normal : Above

Figure 8 Outlook for summer 2016 temperature (left) and precipitation (right) probability in Japan.

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No. 44 | Spring 2016 Overall temperatures in the troposphere are expected tobe higher than normal in association with the El Niño
event and the prevailing long-term trend. This may increase the likelihood of above-normal temperatures,
especially at lower latitudes. Meanwhile, climatological statistics suggest the possible prevalence of the
Okhotsk High (which causes cool conditions in northern and eastern Japan) in association with Indian Ocean
warming in the post-El Niño stage. Accordingly, forecasters should take account of the significant uncertainty associated with warming-tendency predictions
associated with the appearance of the Okhotsk High,especially for northern Japan.
 In consideration of the above, seasonal precipitation is
expected to be above normal in northern, eastern andwestern Japan with 40% probability and near normal in
Okinawa/Amami.
 Seasonal mean temperatures are expected to be above
normal with 60% probability in Okinawa/Amami, with
50% probability in western Japan and with 40% probability in eastern Japan, and near normal in northern Japan.

180°

Warm tendencies in the troposphere
Climatological location

Upper air westerlies

Climatological location(Southward shift)
Climatologicallocation

Tibetan High

North Pacific High(Weaker-than-normal)(Weaker-than-normal in thenorthern part, while strongerthan-normal in the western part)
Lower- than- normal
convective activity

Higherthan- normal
convective
activity

EQ.

Higher-than-normal SSTs

Figure9

Conceptual diagram showing expectedlarge-scale ocean/atmosphere characteristics
for summer 2016

(Masayuki Hirai, Climate Prediction Division)

Summary of the 2015/2016 Asian Winter Monsoon
This report summarizes the characteristics of the surface
climate and atmospheric/oceanographic considerations related to the Asian winter monsoon for 2015/2016.

events (Figure 13). Meanwhile, extremely low temperatures
were observed in Mongolia and China in January. A strong
cold wave in late January was a notable weather characteristic of this boreal winter, which brought record-low temperatures and snowfall. In many regions, daily mean temperatures on January 24 were more than 6 degrees Celsius
below normal (Figure 11).
Precipitation amounts averaged over DJF were below
normal over the Maritime Continent and India (Figure 12).
The dry conditions observed over the Maritime Continent
were also consistent with typical anomaly patterns observedin past El Niño events (Figure 13). In most other regions,precipitation amounts were above normal in DJF. However,
below-normal monthly precipitation amounts were observed in eastern Siberia in December, western to central
Siberia and central to northeastern China in January, andfrom eastern parts of Central Asia to western China, southeastern China and the Indochina Peninsula in February.

Note: The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55; Kobayashi et al. 2015) atmospheric circulation data and
COBE-SST (JMA 2006) sea surface temperature (SST)data were used for this investigation. The outgoing
longwave radiation (OLR) data referenced to infer tropicalconvective activity were originally provided by NOAA.
The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010. The term
“anomaly” as used in this report refers to deviation from thenormal.
1. Surface climate conditions
1.1 Overview of Asia
In boreal winter 2015/2016, general Asian climate characteristics included higher-than-normal temperatures inmost lower latitudes as well as above- and below-normal
precipitation over southeastern China to Japan and parts of
the Maritime Continent, respectively. These conditions
were largely consistent with expected El Niño winter patterns. Despite the prominent influence of the El Niño event,a severe cold wave associated with intra-seasonal variability struck East Asia in January.
Temperatures from December 2015 to February 2016
(DJF) were above normal in most parts of Asia and Siberia
except for Mongolia and China (Figure 10). This tendency
was especially apparent in low-latitude regions, and wasconsistent with typical anomaly patterns for past El Niño

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Figure 10 (a) Three-month mean temperature anomalies for December 2015 – February 2016, and monthly mean
temperature anomalies for (b) December 2015, (c) January 2016 and (d) February 2016
Categories are defined by the three-month/monthly mean temperature anomaly against the normal divided by its standard
deviation and averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of each category are -1.28, -0.44, 0, +0.44 and +1.28. Standard deviations were calculated from 1981 - 2010 statistics. Areas over land without graphical marks are those where observation data are insufficient or where normal data are unavailable.

Figure 11 Daily mean temperature anomalies on 24 January 2016 based on SYNOP observation.

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Figure 12 (a) Three-month total precipitation ratio for December 2015 – February 2016, and monthly precipitation
ratio for (b) December 2015, (c) January 2016 and (d) February 2016
Categories are defined by the three-month/monthly mean temperature anomaly against the normal divided by its standard
deviation and averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of each category are 70, 100 and 120%. Areas over land
without graphical marks are those where observation data are insufficient or where normal data are unavailable.

Figure 13 The schematic charts for typical anomaly patterns of surface temperature and precipitation in boreal
winter in past El Niño events.

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2. Characteristic atmospheric circulation and oceanographic conditions
2.1 Conditions in the tropics and Asian Winter Monsoon
In winter 2015/2016, the El Niño conditions thatemerged in summer 2014 peaked. Sea surface temperatures(SSTs) were markedly above normal in the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and slightly below normalin tropical latitudes north of the equator in the western Pacific. In the Indian Ocean, SSTs were above normal basin-wide (Figure 14), as usually observed during or immediately after El Niño events. Although an active convection
phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagatedeastward from the eastern Indian Ocean via the Pacific andback to the Indian Ocean from early December tomid-January, eastward propagation of convection anomalies related to the MJO was limited (Figure 15) in association with the significant El Niño episode. Convective activity averaged over the three months from December to February, as well as for individual months, was enhanced overthe central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressedover Southeast Asia (Figure 16).

Figure 14 Three-month mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for December 2015 to February 2016
The contour interval is 0.5˚C.

Figure 15 Time-longitude cross section of seven-day running mean (a) 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies, (b)outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies, and (c) 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies around theequator (5°S – 5°N) for November 2015 to April 2016(a) The blue and red shading indicate areas of divergence and convergence anomalies, respectively. (b) The blue and red shading indicate areas of enhanced and suppressed convective activity, respectively. (c) The blue and red shading show easterly and westerly wind
anomalies, respectively.

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2.2 Conditions in atmospheric circulation
In the 200-hPa stream function field (Figure 17 (a)),
pronounced cyclonic circulation anomalies were centeredover southern China in response to suppressed convective
activity over Southeast Asia. Originating from this cyclonic
circulation, a wave train pattern was noticeable with anticyclonic anomalies to the east of Japan. In the 850-hPa stream
function field (Figure 18 (a)), anticyclonic circulation
anomalies were centered over the Philippines and to theeast of Japan. In relation, temperatures in the lower troposphere were above normal over and around Japan (Figure
20 (a)). Meanwhile, the Aleutian Low was stronger thannormal southeastward of its climatological extension (Figure 21 (a)). Overall, the circulation anomaly pattern detailed above affords close parallels to those observed in past
El Niño winters.

Figure 16 200-hPa velocity potential (a) averaged over the three months from December 2015 to February 2016, for(b) December 2015, (c) January 2016 and (d) February 2016
The contours indicate velocity potential at intervals of 2 × 10 6 m2/s, and the shading shows velocity potential anomalies. D and C indicates the bottom and peak of velocity potential, corresponding to the centers of large-scale divergence and convergence, respectively.

Figure 17 200-hPa stream function (a) averaged over the three months from December 2015 to February 2016, for(b) December 2015, (c) January 2016, and (d) February 2016
The contours indicate stream function at intervals of 10 × 106 m2/s and the shadings indicate anomalies. H and L denote the centers ofanticyclonic and cyclonic circulation anomalies, respectively.

Figure 18 850-hPa stream function (a) averaged over the three months from December 2015 to February 2016, for(b) December 2015, (c) January 2016, and (d) February 2016
The contours indicate stream function at intervals of 2.5 × 10 6 m2/s and the shadings indicate anomalies. H and L denote the centers ofanticyclonic and cyclonic circulation anomalies, respectively.

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Figure 19 500-hPa height (a) averaged over the three months
from December 2015 to February 2016, for (b) December 2015, (c) January 2016, and (d) February
2016
The contours indicate 500-hPa height at intervals of 60 m, and theshading denotes anomalies. H and L indicate the peak and bottomof 500-hPa height, respectively, and + (plus) and – (minus) show
the peak and bottom of anomalies, respectively.

Figure 18 850-hPa stream function (a) averaged over
the three months from December 2015 toFebruary 2016, for (b) December 2015, (c)January 2016, and (d) February 2016
The contours indicate stream function at intervals of 2.5 × 106
m2/s and the shadings indicate anomalies. H and L denote thecenters of anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation anomalies, respectively.

Figure 20 850-hPa temperature (a) averaged over the threemonths from December 2015 to February 2016, for(b) December 2015, (c) January 2016, and (d) February 2016
The contours indicate 850-hPa temperature at intervals of 4°C,
and the shading denotes anomalies. W and C indicate the centersof warm and cold air, respectively, and + (plus) and – (minus)
show the peak and bottom of 850hPa temperature anomalies, respectively.

Figure 17 200-hPa stream function (a) averaged over
the three months from December 2015 toFebruary 2016, for (b) December 2015, (c)January 2016, and (d) February 2016
The contours indicate stream function at intervals of 10 × 106
m2/s and the shadings indicate anomalies. H and L denote thecenters of anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation anomalies, respectively.

Figure 21 Sea level pressure (a) averaged over the threemonths from December 2015 to February 2016, for(b) December 2015, (c) January 2016 and (d) February 2016
The contours indicate sea level pressure at intervals of 4 hPa, andthe shading shows related anomalies. H and L indicate the centersof high and low pressure systems, respectively, and + (plus) and –(minus) show the peak and bottom of sea level pressure anomalies, respectively.

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2.3 Notable events
In December 2015, the 500-hPa height field exhibited positive anomalies over Europe and East Asia andnegative anomalies over the North Atlantic and Western Siberia (Figure 19 (b)). This pattern was reminiscent of circulation anomalies representing a negative
phase of the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection pattern(Figure 22 (a)). This negative phase is generally linked
to a weaker-than-normal Siberian High and higher-than-normal temperatures over East Asia, as observed in December 2015 (Figure 20 (b) and Figure 21(b)).
The phase of the EU teleconnection sharply reversed
in early January and remained positive throughout themonth (Figure 22 (b)) with a pronounced ridge centered over the longitude of 90°E and negative heightanomalies over Eastern Europe and East Asia (Figure
19 (c)). This was in stark contrast to the circulation
pattern dominant in the previous month. In close association with this change, the Siberian High turned
stronger than normal (Figure 21 (c)), and temperatures
were below normal over large parts of East Asia (Figure 20 (c)).
In late January, positive 500-hPa height anomalies
over Western Siberia significantly amplified, and a
deep trough concurrently developed over East Asia
(Figure 23 (a)). In the lower troposphere between these
positive and negative anomalies, the intensity and extension of the Siberian High increased (Figure 23 (b))
to a degree at which its center exhibited a rare sea levelpressure exceeding 1,070 hPa. This created a situationin which a large part of East Asia was struck by an
exceptional cold wave and experienced extremely low
temperatures around January 23 - 24 (Figure 23 (c)).

Figure 22 EU teleconnection pattern(a) 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies regressed on EU patternindices (contours) and correlation coefficients (shading). (b) Daily indices for November 2015 to February 2016.

Figure 23 Circulation anomalies related to the exceptional cold wave which hit East Asia over the period of 21 – 25 January, 2016
The contours denote (a) 500-hPa height field, (b) sea level pressure field and (c) temperatures at 850-hPa. Shadings indicate related
anomalies normalized by their standard deviations.

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The outstanding intensity of the cold air outbreaks at thattime can be evaluated using the method proposed by Iwasaki et al. (2014) in relation to cold-air mass anomalies andrelated horizontal flux. In this approach, the total cold-air
mass below the potential temperature level of 280 K (approximately equivalent to the climatological potential temperature at 850 hPa zonally averaged along the latitude of
45°N in boreal winter) is calculated in terms of pressure
difference between the ground and the 280-K level. On
January 23, positive (i.e., above-normal) cold-air mass
anomalies and northwesterly flux anomalies extended fromeastern China toward western Japan (Figure 24 (a)).
Six-hourly meridional flux anomalies of cold-air mass averaged over the 30 - 40°N and 110 - 130°E box reachedtheir highest level since winter 1981/1982 (Figure 24 (b)),
highlighting the unusual intensity of the late-January cold
spell.

References
Ishii, M., A. Shouji, S. Sugimoto and T. Matsumoto, 2005:
Objective Analyses of Sea-Surface Temperature andMarine Meteorological Variables for the 20th Century
using ICOADS and the Kobe Collection. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 865-879.
Iwasaki, T., T. Shoji, Y. Kanno, M. Sawada, M. Ujiie andK. Takaya, 2014: Isentropic analysis of polar cold air
mass streams in the northern hemispheric winter, J.
Atmos. Sci., 71, 2230-2243
Kobayashi, S., Y. Ota, Y. Harada, A. Ebita, M. Moriya, H.
Onoda, K. Onogi, H. Kamahori, C. Kobayashi, H. Endo, K. Miyaoka, and K. Takahashi, 2015: The JRA-55
Reanalysis: General Specifications and Basic Characteristics. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 93, 5 – 48.

(Yoshinori Oikawa and Kenji Kamiguchi,
Tokyo Climate Center)

Figure 24 Intensity of cold-air masses and related flux(a) Cold air mass amount (shading) and flux (arrows) anomalies on 12Z January 23, 2016. (b) Six hourly anomalies of cold air mass flux
averaged over the box indicated in (a) for winter 2015/2016 (red), another recent cold winter 2005/2006 (blue) and other winters since
1981/1982 (grey).

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TCC contributions to Regional Climate Outlook Forums in Asia
WMO Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) bring
together national, regional and international climate experts
on an operational basis to produce regional climate outlooks based on input from participating NMHSs, regional
institutions, Regional Climate Centers and global producers
of climate predictions. By providing a platform for countries with similar climatological characteristics to discuss
related matters, these forums ensure consistency in terms ofaccess to and interpretation of climate information. In
spring 2016, TCC experts participated in two RCOFs in
Asia.
FOCRA II
The first RCOF was the 12th session of the Forum on
Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction
for Regional Association II (FOCRA II) in Guangzhou,
China, from 7 to 9 April. At the event, experts from 12
countries/territories made presentations in six sessions featuring talks by invited lecturers and other oral presentations.
TCC attendees gave three presentations on JMA’s seasonalensemble prediction system (EPS) and its output, and outlined the details of the last winter monsoon. In this way,
JMA’s latest seasonal predictions contributed to discussions
on the consensus outlook for the coming summer.

TCC experts contributed to the discussion at SASCOF-8.

Mr Okubo, Senior Forecaster of TCC, introduced JMA’s seasonal
forecast at 12th FOCRA-II.

SASCOF-8
The second RCOF was the eighth session of the South
Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-8) in Colombo,
Sri Lanka, from 25 to 26 April. This forum, which has been
held every year since 2010, provides a consensus outlook
on the South Asian monsoon season. The member countries
are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives,
Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The SASCOF
consensus outlook is important for these countries, as it
helps to mitigate disasters caused by extreme climate events
such as heavy rainfall and droughts. Experts from member
countries shared outlooks on their own countries and engaged in discussions with global experts toward the formulation of consensus outlooks.
In order to support such activities, TCC dispatches experts annually to provide up-to-date South Asian monsoon
predictions based on JMA’s seasonal EPS and to contributeto discussions on the consensus outlook. At the 2016 session, Two TCC experts attended SASCOF-8 to provide
predictions on oceanic and atmospheric conditions, including probabilistic forecasting of monsoon rainfall in South
Asia based on JMA’s seasonal Ensemble Prediction System, and briefly outlined the Center’s services. The prediction was consistent with other model outputs and played an
important role in the formulation of the outlook for the2016 southwest monsoon season.
(Tadayuki Okubo, Akihiko Shimpo, Hirotaka Sato,
AkioNishimura and Atsushi Goto,
Tokyo Climate Center)

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TCC Experts Visit Vietnam
TCC arranges expert visits to NMHSs to support climate
services and the effective transfer of technology.
As part of such efforts, TCC experts visited the National
Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) in
Vietnam from 5 to 7 April 2016 to hold a training seminar
regarding on the generation of one-month forecasts using
the statistical downscaling technique and on the effective
use of TCC's Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate
System (iTacs). The visit was conducted as follow-up to
the TCC Training Seminar of 2015 (see TCC News No.42
and TCC website for details) , and also provided a platform
for discussions on future collaboration between NCHMF
and TCC.
In the presence of around 18 NCHMF experts, the TCC
visitors outlined the formulation of a statistical relationshipbetween temperature and precipitation as observed in Vi-

TCC News

etnam and corresponding data from JMA's numerical prediction model. Using this relationship to downscale numerical model outputs, the attendees produced one-monthforecasts for regional districts in Vietnam and then madepresentations on their achievements. The TCC visitors also
outlined the basic operation of iTacs via practical exercises.
The visit provided outstanding opportunities for attendees to deepen their understandings of one-month forecasting and to discuss future collaborative work with TCC.
TCC will continue to arrange expert visits to NMHSs in
Southeast Asia and elsewhere as necessary to assist with
operational climate services.
(Yasushi Mochizuki, Tokyo Climate Center)15

No. 44 | Spring 2016

TCC website revamp
TCC provides a range of climate-related products andtools via its website to support Asia-Pacific regional andnational climate services in its role as a WMO Regional
Climate Center (RCC) in Regional Association II (Asia). In
March 2016, the Center revamped its website to improveuser accessibility and operability.
Users can now more easily access periodically updated
products via the new Latest Update section on the left of thepage. Positioning the mouse pointer over a window shows a
key figure of each product and a related link. This upgrade
provides users with convenient access to monthly, seasonally and annually updated products.
The update also provides brief introductions and links tomajor recommended products including iTacs (Interactive
Tool for Analysis of the Climate System), long-range forecast products from the Global Producing Center (GPC Tokyo), Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlook, El
Niño Outlook, ClimatView (a worldwide CLIMAT viewer), and TCC News.

TCC updates such as product launches and TCC News
releases are also provided on the upper right of the screen.
TCC maintains its commitment to supporting operational
climate services at National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) via its website.

Any comments or inquiry on this newsletter and/or the TCC
website would be much appreciated. Please e-mail to
tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.
(Editors: Kiyotoshi Takahashi, Atsushi Goto
and Yasushi Mochizuki)

Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Japan Meteorological Agency
Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
TCC Website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html

TCC News(Yasushi Mochizuki, Tokyo Climate Center)

16

No. 44 | Spring 2016