(Field Survey: May 2007)

Ex-post Monitoring Report
Evaluator: Atsushi Hashimoto （Maenam Advisory Co., Ltd.)
Project Name: Pakistan “Track Circuits at 94 Mainline Stations Project” (L/A No. PK-P31）
Loan Outline
Loan Amount / Disbursed Amount: 3,221 million yen / 3,167 million yen
Loan Agreement:
March 1992
Final Disbursement Date: December 1999
Ex-post Evaluation:
FY2001
Executing Agency:
Ministry of Railways
Project Objective
To install track circuits and electric lock systems at 94 stations out of 234 stations between Karachi and Peshwar (1,700 km) where the obsolete signal system was used
and track circuit system was not installed, and to ensure railway transport safety and thereby contribute to the enhancement of the railway transport safety of the country.
Consultant: N.A.
Contractor: Marubeni Corporation (Japan), Simens Pakistan Engineering
Overview of Results
Item
At the Time of Ex-post Evaluation
At the Time of Ex-post Monitoring
Effectiveness &This project is to install the “track circuit system” at the target stations ofImpact
The track circuit system installed under the project has been working
the Pakistan Railway. The track circuit system is a train detection systemeffectively since completion through to the time of ex-post evaluationthat induces electric currents in the rails (positive current in one track andEffectivenessand the field survey for ex-post monitoring, and helps prevent train
negative current in the other) whereby the axel of a vehicle causes a shortcollisions in the grounds of the stations covered by the project.
circuit between the rails when a train arrives. Since steel sleepers wereused on the tracks at some stations and the track circuit system doest not(1) Enhancement of safety
work in such conditions (because steel sleepers cause a short circuit),a) Changes in the number of accidents
replacement of these sleepers by concrete sleepers was also included in
At the stations where the track circuit system and the electric lock system
the project scope.
were installed, no signal system-related accident has occurred. Also, an
accident resulting in injury or death caused by signal failure has not(1) Enhancement of Safetyoccurred since the last one caused by a point failure in 1996 (in which onea) Changes in the number of accidents
person was killed and six were injured).
No quantitative examination has been conducted on the contribution of(Reference: Although no signal-related accident has occurred, the total

1

Item

At the Time of Ex-post Evaluation
the project to the reduction in the incidence of accidents. (Since there isno data available such as number of trains in operation or hours of train
operation after project completion, it is difficult to quantitatively
examine the contribution of the project to the reduction in the incidenceof railway accidents.)
The following facts have been confirmed (no accident occurred since thecompletion of the project according to the report):
・There have been no severe accidents reported since the new track circuit system
was installed.
・The safe image of train operation has been recovered according to Pakistan
Railway.

At the Time of Ex-post Monitoring
number of accidents has not decreased, indicating that the safety of therailway operation by Pakistan Railway has not been enhanced. In arecent accident that occurred at Sarhad station in July 2005, more than
170 people were killed (according to another report, the death toll
exceeded 500). The cause of this accident was the driver falling asleepand ignoring the signal. In order to prevent such an accident, measures
were taken including the reduction in working hours, increase in thewage level, implementation of new safety training, etc.)
Table 1: Changes in the number of railway accidents
Passenger car

1990

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005*

20

2

0

1

1

2

10

2

0

1

0

0

0

000

61

27

24

18

11

10

40

76

85

54

61

50

11

8

6

5

7

4

33

42

35

31

40

23

collision
Freight car
collision
Locomotive
collision
Passenger car
derailment
Other
derailment
Attendedcrossing
Unattendedcrossing
Train fire

30

2221Collision

10001

9153

154

15411212387

avoidance
Total*Figures for 2005 are as of the end of June.
Source: Pakistan Railway(2) Internal Rate of Return
FIRR: not calculatedb) Delay in operation
No delay in the operation occurred due to the defect of the signal
system installed under the project.

2Item

ImpactAt the Time of Ex-post Evaluation

At the Time of Ex-post Monitoring
The on-time service rate of Pakistan Railway as a whole is around 60%(including delays up to 10 minutes). Main reasons for delays arelocomotive malfunctions, reduced speeds due to the bad conditions oftracks and signal malfunctions especially in case of rain. Since Pakistan
Railway still uses lamp signals on some lines, signal malfunction is likely
to occur when it rains. A project to improve the signal system between
Lahore and Rawalpindi is planned to be implemented with the assistanceof the World Bank.

(2) Internal Rate of ReturnNot calculated
・Enhancement of the safety of railway transport and vitalization of the ・Enhancement of safety of railway transport and activation of the railway
railway sector
sectorNo information or data available
The objective of the project is to prevent train collisions in station
grounds by installing a track circuit system which electrically detects theentrance and passage of trains and displays such information on thedisplay panel in the stationmaster’s office. The fact that no accident has
occurred at the stations where this system is installed shows that thesystem prevents train collisions in station grounds and contributes to safe
<Reference>
railway operation.
<Reference> Indicators (1) to (3) below are not directly to measure theimpact expected in the project on “enhancement of safety of railwaytransport”, but they are thought to show an indirect contribution.
(1) Passenger transporta) Results for passenger transport
No information or data available(1) Passenger transport
The volume of transport (passenger-kilometer) has continuously
increased in the past 10 years (average annual increase rate: 0.8%), andthe number of passengers in 2005 was 81 million. The average travel
distance per passenger also increased from 248 km to 314 km.
Pakistan Railway predicts that the total passenger-kilometers will reach
27,000 million passenger-kilometers by 2013.
Table 2: Results of passenger transport
1991

31992

1993

1994

1995

ItemAt the Time of Ex-post Evaluation

At the Time of Ex-post Monitoring
Numberofpassengers(million)
Total passenger-kilometer(million persons/km)
Average travel distance (km)Revenue per passenger (Rs)
Number of passenger trains
per day
Numberofpassengers(million)
Total passenger-kilometer(million persons/km)
Average travel distance (km)Revenue per passenger (Rs)
Number of passenger trains
per day
Numberofpassengers(million)
Total passenger-kilometer(million persons/km )Average travel distance (km)Revenue per passenger (Rs)
Number of passenger trains
per day

73.3

59.061.7

66.4

73.6

18,13817,082

16,38017,555

18,905

248
36

289
47

266
46

264
47

257
49

310

326

327

307

305

1996
68.8

1997
64.9

1998
65.0

1999
67.5

2000
68.9

19,114

18,774

18,98018,495

19,590

278
64

289
70

292
70

274
72

284
84

279

209

213

218

223

2001
69.0

2002
72.1

2003
75.7

2004
78.2

2005
81.4

20783

22306

23045

24238

25621

301
95

308
102

304
108

310
119

314
126

220

219

228

226

235

Source: Pakistan Railway(2) Results of freight transport
The results of freight transport have improved and the total
ton-kilometers has increased.

(2) Results for freight transport
No data available

Table 3: Results of freight transport
Total ton-kilometers(thousand)Transport distance per ton(km)Revenue per ton (Rs.)

Source: Pakistan Railway

42000

2001

2002

2003

2004

4,519,52
8

4,572,734

4,819,756

4,796,269

5,013,540

771.0

782.6

779.8

781.2

782.1

790.3

795.5

800.8

706.3

824.8

Item

At the Time of Ex-post Evaluation

At the Time of Ex-post Monitoring(3) Impact on environment
There has been no negative environmental impact reported.

(3) Environmental Impact
There has been no negative environmental impact.

Sustainability
The situation has not improved since the time of ex-post evaluation.
However, the system and technology to operate and maintain theequipment installed under the project are sufficient and sustainability ofthe project is maintained. In terms of financial status, the constantdeficit is compensated by the national treasury and therefore no loss isreported. How to improve the income and expenditure position depends
on the policy of the Pakistani government. Efforts are being made toincrease revenue by improving the services.
(1) Technical capacity(1) Technical capacity
Generally there are no problems. Technologies and skills to operate theThe situation remains the same from the time of ex-post evaluation andnew system have been acquired by the staff through the education an adequate level of capacity is maintained. Newly hired employees are
system, and refresher courses are also provided. The adequate level of provided with an education program lasting 8 weeks for unskilled
technical capacity seems to be maintained
workers and 40 weeks for engineers and there is no problem in thesystem for the acquisition of technical skills. Also, refresher courses are(2) O&M Systemprovided at important steps of the promotion ladder. Thus, an adequate
The number of staff for the maintenance of the signal system is technical level is maintained.
inadequate. The government stopped recruiting the staff from 1998 to2000 (this seems to have caused a lack of young engineers). As of the (2) O&M Systemtime of the ex-port evaluation, Pakistan Railway has 1,949 engineers. It
The situation has not changed from the time of ex-post evaluation andis reported that at most 500 engineers are necessary to provide adequate the staff for the maintenance of the signal system is inadequate. The fixedrailway operation services.
number of staff (engineer level) of the Signal Engineering Department is
1,901 while the current number employed is 1,689 (the difference is thenumber of vacancies). The top management of Pakistan Railway says thatthese vacancies do not cause any problem in the operation. However, theon-site staff seems to think that the company is shorthanded.
The total number of employees of Pakistan Railway has decreased from91,500 in 2001 to 86,800 in 2005, showing that personnel reduction wasimplemented. This reduction is the result of the suspension ofemployment in addition to the retirement of employees.

5

Item

At the Time of Ex-post Evaluation(3) Financial status
The table below shows data regarding the financial condition of Pakistan
Railway. The operational revenue gradually decreased from 1997 to1999 and then increased. This is mainly due to the increase in ton
kilometers and passenger kilometers. Pakistan Railway is diligently
striving for the improvement of its financial condition.
Table: Financial Condition of Pakistan Railway(Unit: Million Rs)

Revenue
Expenditure
Surplus/Deficit

At the Time of Ex-post Monitoring(3) Financial status
The operating expenditure exceeds the income and the balance has been
constantly in the red, posting a loss of 1,000–3,000 million Rupees everyyear. The deficit is compensated by the national treasury every year andtherefore no loss is reported on the profit and loss statement. Pakistan
Railway is given the status of an agency of the Ministry of Railways andthe railway budget is considered as part of the national budget.
Long distance passengers (traveling 100 km or more) occupy 50% of allpassengers of Pakistan Railway (PR) and generate over 90% of therevenue, indicating that the services for these passengers are the main
services of PR. Efforts are being made to increase income per passenger
such as the introduction of a class with more attentive services aboard, theintroduction of low-charge cars equipped with air conditioners and anincrease in express trains services.

As part of efforts to improve the financial condition, Pakistan Railway isplanning to 1) reduce the number of cars operated on unprofitable routes, Table 3: Income and Expenditure of Pakistan Railway (Unit: Million Rs)2) reduce electric consumption, and 3) dismiss 5,000 employees.
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
Operating Income

13,046

14,81014,635

17,829Operating Expenditure

15,402

17,072

17,90018,894

Operating Profit/Loss-2,356-2,262-3,266-1066

Interest Payment

2,398

3,394

2,096

2,145

Current Account-4,755-5,656-5,361-3212

Surplus/Deficit

Source: Pakistan Railway
It was not confirmed whether a reduction in the number of cars operated
on unprofitable routes and a reduction in electric consumption wererealized. A dismissal of employees was not conducted. However, thenumber of employees decreased from the time of ex-post evaluation byapproximately 5,000 through natural decline.

6

Item

At the Time of Ex-post Evaluation

At the Time of Ex-post Monitoring(4) O&M status(4) O&M status
The situation has not changed from the time of ex-post evaluation. AAlthough there is the problem of the lack of staff, it seems that a certain
level of quality has been maintained thanks to the education program certain quality of maintenance is ensured and manuals are provided.
The maintenance of signals is the responsibility of the Signal
including the refresher courses for veteran staff. The maintenanceEngineering Department. A team composed of a Sub Engineer Signal, twomanual and the manual for periodic inspection are provided.
Assistant Sub Engineers and four Maintainers usually covers three
Looking at the breakdown of the operating expenditure of Pakistan stations. According to the frontline workers, there is a shortage of skilled
Railway for FY1999–2000, the repair and maintenance cost and the fuel engineers. For all facilities including signals, 80% of the maintenancecost occupy the large part, 45% and 13%, respectively. These figures are parts are domestically procured. Still, there is a difficulty in procuring
higher than those of Japan Railway (21% and 5% respectively) because some parts that need to be imported.
Pakistan Railway continues to use decrepit rails, locomotives and Among the operational expenditure of Pakistan Railway for FY 2004–05,
the ratio occupied by the repair and maintenance cost dropped to 36%
buildings in bad conditions.
while that by the fuel cost increased to 31% from the time of ex-postevaluation. Other information for determining the maintenance capacity ofthe executing agency was not available. As the maintenance cost of thesystem installed under the project is small, it can be said that a sufficientamount is allocated.
(Reference)
At all stations that we visited in the field survey, the track circuit system
was functioning and no problem was found in the equipment. It often
happens that due to insufficient maintenance of tracks the wooden joint
part is damaged and the rail is connected at points where it should beinsulated (in the track circuit, each rail section must be insulated fromother sections). However, it does not cause malfunctioning of the entiresystem.

7ItemLessons
Learned,Recommendati
ons,Information
Resources andMonitoring
Methods

At the Time of Ex-post Evaluation
Lessons learned and recommendations
N.A.

At the Time of Ex-post Monitoring
The installed track circuit system is not an advanced technology but issuitable for the operation and maintenance capacity of Pakistan
Railway. That is why sustainability of the project is well secured.

(1) Lessons learned and recommendations at the time of ex-post
evaluation
N.A.

(1) Follow up on
lessons learned
andrecommendations made in theex-post
evaluation reportor laterevaluations(2) Lessons learned and recommendations given seven years after theproject completion– Lessons Learned
The track circuit system installed under the project is not an advanced
technology but is suitable for the level of operation and maintenancetechnology of the maintenance staff of the target stations (small sizedstations where not many passengers get on and off trains) and therefore
sustainability has been secured.
– Recommendations
N.A.

(2)Proposals forsecuringsustainability
and instructions
given at the timeof ex-postmonitoring8