Autumn 2019

Table of Contents: TCC News No. 58
TCC climate monitoring activity on stratospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere .................... 1
El Niño Outlook (November 2019 - May 2020)................................................................................................ 2
JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Winter 2019/2020 ..................................................... 4
Cold Season Outlook for Winter 2019/2020 in Japan.................................................................................... 6
Summary of the 2019 Asian Summer Monsoon ............................................................................................ 8
Status of the Antarctic Ozone Hole in 2019.................................................................................................. 12
TCC contributions to Regional Climate Outlook Forums ........................................................................... 13

TCC climate monitoring activity on stratospheric circulation in the Northern
Hemisphere
The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has longmonitored stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) in the
Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter, and beganproviding related information under the STRATALERT
program of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
in the International Year of the Quiet Sun (IQSY) of 1964 –1965 (e.g., WMO 1964; Labitzke 2005; Butler et al. 2015).
The Stratospheric Research Group of the Freie Universit ät
Berlin, Germany, terminated its decades of significant active
contributions to the program via STRATALERT reportissuance in 2004 (Labitzke 2005), while JMA continued its
report provision via the Global Telecommunication System(GTS) on a daily basis in relation to SSW events in the
Northern Hemisphere during winter.
In winter 2019/2020, TCC/JMA began issuing Northern
Hemisphere SSW monitoring information on the TCC
website(https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ind
ex.html; see criteria). The information are updated whenevera SSW event starts or ends in the Northern Hemisphere andwhen events are recognized as major SSW instances. It canbe accessed along with graphs and maps, including timeseries representations of temperature at 30 hPa over the North
Pole (Fig. 1-1) updated on a daily basis.
It should be noted that JMA discontinued its GTS issuanceof STRATALERT Tokyo reports in November 2019, making
winter 2018/2019 the final season of provision. Users’
support for STRATALERT Tokyo reports over the years isvery much appreciated. TCC expects its future online
provision of Northern Hemisphere SSW monitoring
information to enhance climate monitoring and seasonal
prediction by National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHSs).
(Akihiko Shimpo, Tokyo Climate Center)

TCC News

References
Butler, A. H., D. J. Seidel, S. C. Hardiman, N. Butchart, T.
Birner, and A. Match, 2015: Defining sudden stratosphericwarmings. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 1913-1928.
Labitzke, K., 2005: Termination of the STRATALERT
Reports. SPARC Newsletter, 24, World Climate Research
Programme SPARC Office (Available online at
http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/SPARC/Newslette
r%2024%20WEB%20/Stratalert.html,
accessed13
November 2019)
WMO, 1964: Implementation of the WMO-IQSY
STRATWARM PROGRAMME. WMO Bulletin, 13(4),200-205(Available
onlineathttps://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=6525,
accessed 13 November 2019).

Figure 1-1 Time-series representation of 30-hPa
temperature over the North Pole from September 2018
to August 2019. Black line: daily temperature; greyline: normal (1981 – 2010 average).

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No.58 | Autumn 2019

El Niño Outlook (November 2019 - May 2020)
ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in October 2019, and ENSOneutral conditions are likely (60%) to continue until boreal
spring. (Article based on the El Niño outlook issued on 11
November 2019.)

in boreal winter and beyond (Figure 2-5). In conclusion,
ENSO-neutral conditions are likely (60%) to continue until
boreal spring.
Western Pacific and Indian Ocean
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific(NINO.WEST) region was near normal in October. Values
are likely to be near or below normal until boreal winter andnear or above normal in boreal spring.
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean(IOBW) region was above normal in October. Values arelikely to be near or above normal until boreal spring.
(Hiroyuki Sugimoto, Tokyo Climate Center)

El Niño/La Niña
The NINO.3 SST deviation was +0.2°C in October. SSTs
were above normal in the western part of the equatorial
Pacific and near normal in the eastern part (Figures 2-1 and
2-3 (a)), and subsurface temperatures were above normal in
the central part (Figures 2-2 and 2-3 (b)). Atmospheric
convective activity near the dateline over the equatorial
Pacific was near normal, as were easterly winds in the lower
troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial
Pacific. These oceanic and atmospheric conditions indicatethat ENSO-neutral conditions persisted in October.
Since subsurface ocean temperature anomalies in theequatorial Pacific were small, near-normal SST conditions in
the eastern part are expected to continue in the coming
months. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the
NINO.3 SST will be near normal until boreal spring (Figure2-4). Based on this prediction and the observations detailed
above, there is a probability of over 60% that the five-monthrunning mean NINO.3 SST will be between -0.4 and +0.4°C* The SST normal for the NINO.3 region (5°S – 5°N, 150°W– 90°W) is defined as an monthly average over the latest
sliding 30-year period (1989-2018 for this year).
* The SST normals for the NINO.WEST region (Eq. – 15°N,
130°E – 150°E) and the IOBW region (20°S – 20°N, 40°E –100°E) are defined as linear extrapolations with respect to thelatest sliding 30-year period, in order to remove the effects ofsignificant long-term warming trends observed in theseregions.

(a)(b)

Figure 2-1 Monthly mean (a) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and (b) SST anomalies in the Indian and Pacific
Ocean areas for October 2019
The contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.
(a)

(b)

Figure 2-2Monthly mean depth-longitude cross sections of (a) temperatures and (b) temperature anomalies in theequatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean areas for October 2019
The contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

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(a)

(b)

Figure 2-3Time-longitude cross sections of (a) SST and (b) ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies along the equator in the Indianand Pacific Ocean areas
OHCs are defined here as vertically averaged temperatures in the top 300 m. The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

Figure 2-4
Outlook of NINO.3 SST deviation
produced by the El Niño prediction modelThis figure shows a time series of monthly NINO.3 SST
deviations. The thick line with closed circles shows observed
SST deviations, and the boxes show the values produced for
up to six months ahead by the El Niño prediction model.
Each box denotes the range into which the SST deviation is
expected to fall with a probability of 70%.

Figure 2-5
ENSO forecast probabilities based on the
El Niño prediction model
Red, yellow and blue bars indicate probabilities that the
five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviationfrom the latest sliding 30-year mean will be +0.5°C or
above (El Niño), between +0.4 and -0.4°C (ENSO-neutral)and -0.5°C or below (La Niña), respectively. Regular text
indicates past months, and bold text indicates current andfuture months.
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JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Winter 2019/2020
Based on JMA’s seasonal ensemble prediction system, sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies are predicted to be nearnormal in the equatorial Pacific in boreal winter 2019/2020,
suggesting neutral El Niño conditions. In association withremaining Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) condition, active
convection is predicted over the western tropical Indian Ocean(WTIO), while inactive convection is predicted over the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO). As a result, easterly
anomalies over the southern tropical Indian Ocean and, inassociation with the subtropical jet, positive anomalies of thestream function at 200 hPa over Japan are predicted.

(a)

(b)

Introduction
This article outlines JMA’s dynamical seasonal ensemble
prediction for boreal winter 2019/2020 (December –February, referred to as DJF), which was used as a basis for
JMA’s operational cold-season outlook issued on 25
November 2019. The outlook is based on the seasonalensemble prediction system of the Coupled Atmosphereocean General Circulation Model (CGCM). See the column
below for system details.
Section 2 outlines global SST anomaly predictions, andSection 3 describes the associated circulation field
predictions for the tropics and sub-tropics. Finally, thecirculation fields predicted for the mid- and high-latitudes of
the Northern Hemisphere are discussed in Section 4.
1.

(c)

SST anomalies (Figure 3-1)
Figure 3-1 shows predicted SSTs (contours) and related
anomalies (shading) for DJF. As for SST conditions in thetropical Pacific, near-normal anomalies are predicted in theequatorial Pacific, suggesting neutral El Niño conditions.
Meanwhile, above-normal SST conditions are predicted in
the southern tropical Indian Ocean under the influence of
IOD condition in December and January.
2.

(d)Prediction for the tropics and sub-tropics (Figure 32)
Figure 3-2 (a) shows predicted precipitation (contours) andrelated anomalies (shading) for DJF. Above-normal
anomalies are predicted over the northern tropical Pacific andthe WTIO, while below-normal anomalies are predicted over
the SETIO in association with remaining IOD condition.
3.

Figure 3-2 Predicted atmospheric fields from 60°N –60°S for December–February 2019/2020 (ensemble
mean of 51 members)(a) Precipitation (contours) and anomaly (shading). The
contour interval is 2 mm/day.
(b) Velocity potential at 200 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 2 × 106 m2/s.
(c) Stream function at 200 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 16 × 106 m2/s.
(d) Stream function at 850 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 5 × 106 m2/s.

Figure 3-1
Predicted SSTs (contours) and SST
anomalies(shading)
forDecember–February
2019/2020 (ensemble mean of 51 members)

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4No.58 | Autumn 2019

(a)Figure 3-2 (b) shows predicted velocity potential(contours) and related anomalies (shading) in the upper
troposphere (200 hPa) for DJF. Positive (i.e., convergent)anomalies are predicted over the eastern Indian Ocean inassociation with inactive convection over the SETIO.
Conversely, negative (i.e., divergent) anomalies are predicted
over the western Indian Ocean and Africa in association withactive precipitation over the WTIO.
Figure 3-2 (c) shows predicted stream functions (contours)
and related anomalies (shading) in the upper troposphere(200 hPa) for DJF. Positive (i.e., anticyclonic) anomalies are
predicted in the Arabian Sea, in association with divergenceover the western Indian Ocean and Africa, which influences
through Japan to North America via a Rossby-wave train
along the subtropical jet stream.
Figure 3-2 (d) shows predicted stream functions (contours)
and related anomalies (shading) in the lower troposphere(850 hPa) for DJF. Equatorial symmetric anticyclonicanomalies are predicted over the Indian Ocean, which
generates strong easterly wind anomalies over the southern
tropical Indian Ocean. Positive (i.e., anticyclonic) anomalies
are seen over sea areas off the western coast of North America
and around Japan in association with the barotropic highgenerated from a Rossby-wave train in the upper troposphere.

(b)Prediction for the mid- and high- latitudes of theNorthern Hemisphere
Figure 3-3 (a) shows predicted geopotential heights(contours) and related anomalies (shading) at 500 hPa for DJF.
Positive anomalies are predicted over the sea off the western
coast of North America and around Japan in association withthe barotropic high. Conversely, negative anomalies are seen
over northern India and central Asia as well as the northernpart of America.
Figure 3-3 (b) shows predicted sea level pressure(contours) and related anomalies (shading) for DJF. Positive
Arctic Oscillation is predicted to be dominant in the Northern
Hemisphere, but this should be interpreted with caution due
to low predictability. Positive anomalies are predicted overthe sea off the western coast of North America and around
Japan in association with the barotropic high.
4.

Figures 3-3 Predicted atmospheric fields from 20°N –90°N for December–February 2019/2020 (ensemble
mean of 51 members)(a) Geopotential height at 500 hPa (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 60 m.
(b) Sea level pressure (contours) and anomaly (shading).
The contour interval is 4 hPa.
(Takuya Komori, Tokyo Climate Center)

JMA’s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
JMA operates a seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) using the Coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation
Model (CGCM) to make seasonal predictions beyond a one-month time range. The EPS produces perturbed initial conditions
by means of a combination of the initial perturbation method and the lagged average forecasting (LAF) method. The
prediction is made using 51 members from the latest four initial dates (13 members are run every 5 days). Details of theprediction system and verification maps based on 30-year hindcast experiments (1981–2010) are available athttps://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/.
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Cold Season Outlook for Winter 2019/2020 in JapanJMA issued its outlook for the coming winter (December 2019
– February 2020) over Japan in September and updated it inNovember based on the Agency’s seasonal Ensemble
Prediction System (EPS). This article outlines the outlook
update of 25 November.
1.







Outlook summary (Figure 4-1)
Seasonal mean temperatures are expected to exhibit
above-normal tendencies nationwide.
Seasonal precipitation amounts on the Sea of Japan sideof northern and eastern Japan, and seasonal snowfall
amounts on the Sea of Japan side from northern towestern Japan, are expected to exhibit below-normal
tendencies.



Outlook backgroundFigure4-2highlights
expectedlarge-scaleoceanic/atmospheric characteristics for winter. An outline of
the background to the outlook is given below.
2.

ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue until
winter. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected to
be above normal over the western Indian Ocean and thewestern-central part of the tropical Pacific.
In association with the expected SST anomalies,
convection in the tropics is expected to be enhanced
over the western Indian Ocean and the western-central
Pacific and suppressed around the Indonesia.
In the upper circulation fields, wave train conditions are
expected to appear in association with the abovementioned convective activity along the subtropical jet
stream from the Eurasian continent to Japan withnorthward meandering around the latter, suggesting aweaker-than-normal winter monsoon.
Tropospheric temperatures are expected to be above
normal mainly due to the recent warming trend, which
is likely to reduce the probability of below-normal
temperatures.
(Hiroshi Ohno, Tokyo Climate Center)

Figure 4-1 Outlook for winter 2019/2020 temperature(upper left), precipitation (upper right) and snowfall(lower left) probability in Japan.
Snowfall amounts are forecasted only for the Sea of Japanside from northern to western Japan.

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Figure 4-2: Conceptual diagram showing expected large-scale ocean/atmosphere characteristics for winter 2019/2020<<Table of contents

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No.58 | Autumn 2019

Summary of the 2019 Asian Summer Monsoon
Precipitation and temperature
CLIMAT report data detailing four-month total
precipitation amounts for the monsoon season (June –September) show more than 140% of the normal from thesouthern part of Central Asia to the central part of South Asiaand in/around northern and northeastern China, while values
less than 60% of the normal were seen in and aroundIndonesia, southern Pakistan and northwestern China, andfrom eastern China to the Korean Peninsula (Figure 5-1). In
and around South Asia, heavy rain caused more than 1,900
fatalities from July to August (sources: governments ofIndia/Pakistan, European Commission) and more than 360 in
September (sources: government of India, European
Commission). In Singapore, monthly precipitation in
September was at its lowest for the month since 1869
according to the Meteorological Service Singapore.
Four-month mean temperatures for the same period wereabove normal in many parts of Asia. Anomalies of more than
1°C above normal were seen from northern China to thesouthern part of Central Siberia, from eastern China tonorthern Japan, and in and around southern China andsouthern Pakistan (Figure 5-2).
1.

Figure 5-2 Four-month mean temperature anomalies(°C) from June to September 2019
The base period for normal is 1981 – 2010. Note that thedata in Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cambodia, Kazakhstan,Laos, Nepal, Papua New Guinea and Viet Nam areinterpolated due to the lack of CLIMAT report orclimatological normal.
Table 5-1 Tropical cyclones forming over the western
North Pacific up to September 2019

Tropical cyclones
A total of 18 tropical cyclones (TCs1) had formed over thewestern North Pacific and the South China Sea by September
2019, as compared to the normal of 18.4 (Table 5-1). From
June to September, a total of 16 TCs (climatological normal:
16.0) formed, with 14 approaching or making landfall on East
Asia and 11 (climatological normal: 9.2) on Japan.
Among these, Typhoon Lekima passed by Japan’s
Sakishima Islands with a maximum wind speed of 105 knots
and made landfall on eastern China, resulting in more than 40
fatalities in the eastern part of the country (source:
government of China).
2.

Note: Based on information from the RSMC TokyoTyphoon Center.
1) Intensity classification for tropical cyclones.
TS: tropical storm,
STS: severe tropical storm,
TY: typhoon2) Estimated maximum 10-minute mean wind.
3) Based on early analysis data, but not best track.

Figure 5-1 Four-month precipitation ratios (%) from
June to September 2019
The base period for normal is 1981 – 2010. Note that thedata in Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cambodia, Kazakhstan,Laos, Nepal, Papua New Guinea and Viet Nam areinterpolated due to the lack of CLIMAT report orclimatological normal.

1Here, a TC is defined as a tropical cyclone with amaximum sustained wind speed of 34 knots or more.

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Monsoon activity and atmospheric circulation
Convective activity (inferred from OLR) averaged for June
– September 2019 was enhanced in and around the western
Indian Ocean and over the sea northeast of the Philippines,
while values were suppressed from the southeastern tropicalIndian Ocean to the Maritime Continent and in/around thenorthwestern part of Southeast Asia (Figure 5-3). OLR index
data (Table 5-2) indicate that the overall activity of the Asiansummer monsoon (represented by the SAMOI (A) index) was
below normal except in August. The active convection area
was shifted northward of its normal position other than inJune and October (SAMOI (N) index) and eastward otherthan in August and October (SAMOI (W) index). Convective
activity over India and the Bay of Bengal (Figure 5-4 (a)) was
suppressed from May to July and enhanced from August to
September. Convective activity over the Philippines (Figure
5-4 (b)) was suppressed from mid-May to June and from late
September to October, and was enhanced from August to
mid-September.
In the upper troposphere (Figure 5-5 (a)), thenorthwestward extension of the Tibetan High was stronger
than normal and anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies
straddling the equator were seen from Africa to the western

Indian Ocean. Such anomalies were also seen over thewestern tropical North Pacific. In the lower troposphere(Figure 5-5 (b)), cyclonic circulation anomalies were seen
over and around the Arabian Sea and over the southern partof the East China Sea, while anti-cyclonic circulation
anomalies straddling the equator were seen over the eastern
Indian Ocean. The monsoon trough over Southeast Asia wasshifted northeastward of its normal position, and surface
westerly winds were weaker than normal over the Bay of
Bengal (Figure 5-6). Zonal wind shear between the upper andlower troposphere over the northern Indian Ocean andsouthern Asia (Figure 5-7) was weaker than normal from
May to early June and from late September to mid-October.
(Hitoshi Sato, Tokyo Climate Center)

3.

References
Wang, B. and Z. Fan, 1999: Choice of South Asian summer
monsoon indices. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 629–638.
Webster, P. J. and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO:
Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc.,
118, 877 – 926.

Figure 5-3 Four-month mean OLR and its
anomaly (W/m2) for June–September 2019
The contours indicate OLR at intervals of 20
W/m2, and the color shading denotes OLR
anomalies from the normal (i.e., the 1981–2010
average). Negative (cold color) and positive(warm color) OLR anomalies show enhanced
and suppressed convection compared to thenormal, respectively. Original data are provided
by NOAA.
Table 5-2 Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index (SAMOI) values observed from May to October 2019
Asian summer monsoon OLR indices (SAMOI) are derived from OLR anomalies from May to October. SAMOI (A), (N)and (W) indicate the overall activity of the Asian summer monsoon, its northward shift and its westward shift, respectively.
SAMOI definitions are as follows: SAMOI (A) = (-1) × (W + E); SAMOI (N) = S – N; SAMOI (W) = E – W. W, E, N and
S indicate area-averaged OLR anomalies for the respective regions shown in the figure on the right normalized by theirstandard deviations.
Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index (SAMOI)SAMOI (N):SAMOI (A):SAMOI (W):
Northward-

Activity

Westward-shift
shift

May 2019

-1.8

+1.8

-1.1

Jun. 2019

-0.8

-1.5

-0.1

Jul. 2019

-1.1

+1.4

-1.3

Aug. 2019

+0.4

+0.8

0.0

Sep. 2019

-0.9

+2.8

-0.2

Oct. 2019

-1.7

-0.8

+0.8

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9No.58 | Autumn 2019

(a)

(b)

Figure 5-4 Time-series representation of OLR (W/m2) averaged over (a) India and the Bay of Bengal (shown by therectangle on the bottom: 10°N - 25°N, 70°E - 100°E) and (b) the Philippines (shown by the rectangle on the bottom:
10°N - 20°N, 115°E - 140°E)
The OLR indices are calculated after Wang and Fan (1999). The thick and thin blue lines indicate seven-day running mean
and daily mean values, respectively. The black line denotes the normal (i.e., the 1981 - 2010 average), and the gray shadingshows the range of the standard deviation calculated for the time period of the normal.

(a)

(b)

Figure 5-5 Four-month mean (a) 200-hPa and (b) 850-hPa stream function (contour) and its anomaly (color
shading) (106 m2/s) for June–September 2019
Contour intervals are (a) 10 × 106 m2/s and (b) 3 × 106 m2/s. Warm (cold) shading denotes anti-cyclonic (cyclonic) circulation
anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, and vice-versa in the Southern Hemisphere. The base period for the normal is 1981
– 2010.

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Figure 5-6
Sea level pressure anomaly (color
shading) (hPa) and surface wind vector anomaly(vectors) (m/s) for June–September 2019.
The shading shows sea level pressure anomalies atintervals of 0.5 hPa. The base period for the normal is1981 – 2010.

Figure 5-7 Time-series representation of the zonal wind
shear index between 200-hPa and 850-hPa averaged overthe northern Indian Ocean and southern Asia (the region
enclosed by the pink rectangle in the right figure: equator– 20°N, 40°E – 110°E)
The zonal wind shear index is calculated after Webster andYang (1992). The thick and thin pink lines indicate seven-day
running mean and daily mean values, respectively. The blackline denotes the normal (i.e., the 1981 – 2010 average), andthe gray shading shows the range of the standard deviation
calculated for the time period of the normal.

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No.58 | Autumn 2019

Status of the Antarctic Ozone Hole in 2019
The Antarctic ozone hole in 2019 was at its smallest since 1990.

polar vortex induced flows of high-concentration ozone fromlow latitudes.
As an overall trend, the maximum size of the Antarctic
ozone hole has shown a statistically significant decrease since
2000. The WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessment of Ozone
Depletion: 2018 report detailed how the hole is expected toclose gradually, with springtime total column ozone in the
2060s returning to 1980 values.
The ozone layer acts as a shield against ultraviolet
radiation, which can cause skin cancer. The ozone hole was
first recognized in the early 1980s, and large-scale events
have been observed since the 1990s. Its record size was 29.6
million square kilometers (2000). The Antarctic ozone holesignificantly affects summer climatic conditions on thesurface of the Southern Hemisphere according to the recent
assessment.
(Mika Kimura, Ozone Layer Monitoring Center)

Since the early 1980s, the Antarctic ozone hole has
appeared every year in austral spring with a peak in
September or early October. It is generally defined as the area
in which the total ozone column value is below 220 m atmcm.
JMA analysis based on data from the Ozone Monitoring
Instrument (OMI) on the Aura platform indicates that theAntarctic ozone hole in 2019 appeared in mid-August andexpanded before unexpectedly peaking in size in 7 September,remaining under 11.0 million square kilometers in scale (0.8
times the size of the Antarctic Continent) until its
disappearance on 10 November (Figure 6-1).
This significantly reduced scale can be mainly attributed tothe particular meteorological conditions of 2019, including
stratospheric temperatures that were much higher than themost recent decadal average after August. This hindered theformation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), which play
an important role in ozone destruction. In addition, a weak<<Table of contents<Top of this article

Figure 6-1 Characteristics of the Antarctic ozone hole
Upper left: Time-series representation of the daily ozone hole area for 2019 (red line) and the 2009–2018 average (blackline). The blue shading area represents the range of daily minima and maxima over the past 10 years.
Upper right: Inter-annual variability of annual maximum ozone hole area. The green dotted line shows the area of the
Antarctic Continent (13.9 million square kilometers).
Bottom: Snapshots of total column ozone distribution on the day of the annual maximum ozone hole area for the last three
years; the ozone hole is shown in gray (below 220m atm-cm). These panels are based on data from NASA satellite sensorsof the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI).

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TCC contributions to Regional Climate Outlook Forums
WMO Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) bring
together national, regional and international climate experts on
an operational basis to produce regional climate outlooks
based on input from participating NMHSs, regional institutions,Regional Climate Centres and global producers of climate
predictions. By providing a platform for countries with similar
climatological characteristics to discuss related matters, theseforums ensure consistency in terms of access to andinterpretation of climate information.
In autumn 2019, TCC dispatched experts to SASCOF-15, and
EASCOF-7.

discussions to promote better use of climate services throughfuture SASCOF activities.
EASCOF-7
The seventh session of EASCOF (EASCOF-7), hosted by
the National Agency for Meteorology and Environmental
Monitoring (NAMEM), was held in Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia
from 5 to 7 November 2019. More than 40 experts from
China, Japan, the Republic of Korea and Mongolia attended
to discuss the characteristics of summer 2019, which
exhibited significant intra-seasonal variations, and theseasonal forecast for the winter monsoon in East Asia.
Discussions also covered recent understandings on climate
variations in the East Asian monsoon. Two TCC experts eachgave presentations at the forum on 1. the high precipitationlevels and late onset/end of the summer 2019 rainy period in
East Asia, and 2. the outlooks for El Niño and the coming
winter. Exchanges of expertise at this three-day forum are
expected to help develop attendees’ understanding ofphenomena related to the East Asian monsoon and support
improvement of their climate services.

SASCOF-15
India Meteorological Department (IMD) hosted the 15th
winter session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum(SASCOF-15) from 23 to 25 September 2019 in
Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India. The event was supportedby the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), theRegional Climate Centre (RCC) Pune of the IMD, the UK
Met Office (UKMO) and the Regional Integrated Multihazard Early-warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES)
with funding from the Asia – Regional Resilience toChanging Climate (ARRCC) program based on UKMO andRIMES collaboration. More than 40 attendees discussed
climatic conditions during the upcoming winter monsoon
season (Oct. to Dec. 2019) and effective use of climate
services in user sectors.
As part of the activities of WMO’s Regional Climate
Centre, and also as Global Producing Center for long-range
forecasts (GPC-LRF), two experts from Tokyo Climate
Center provided an introduction of TCC and a wintermonsoon season outlook. The outlook was based on JMA’s
dynamical seasonal ensemble prediction system withprobabilistic information on atmospheric variability and theevolution of oceanic conditions in the tropical Pacific andIndian Ocean for the period from Oct. to Dec. 2019. The
provision of this information was intended to support theoutput of country-scale outlooks by National Meteorologicaland Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in South Asia andcontribute to the summarization of a consensus outlook forSouth Asia.
The forum placed particular emphasis on the Climate
Services User Forum (CSUF) with focus on the water sector
based on the sharing of information with user sectors to
support discussion of their experiences of using climatic
services. The TCC experts were also involved in active

SASCOF-15

EASCOF-7(SASCOF-15: Kazuaki Tsuji, Tokyo Climate Center,
EASCOF-7: Shoji Notsuhara, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents<Top of this article

You can also find the latest newsletter from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
JICA’s World (October 2019)https://www.jica.go.jp/english/publications/j-world/1910.html
JICA’s World is the quarterly magazine published by JICA. It introduces various cooperation projects and partners alongwith the featured theme. The latest issue features “Climate Actions: For the Future of the Planet”.
Any comments or inquiry on this newsletter and/or the TCC
website would be much appreciated. Please e-mail to
tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.
(Editors: Yasushi Takatsuki, Yasushi Mochizuki
and Kazuaki Tsuji)

TCC News

Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Japan Meteorological Agency
Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
TCC Website: https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html

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No.58 | Autumn 2019