No. 46

Autumn 2016
ContentsPage

El Niño Outlook (November 2016 - May 2017)

1

JM A’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Winter 2016/20173

Cold Season Outlook for Winter 2016/2017 in Japan

5

Summary of the 2016 Asian Summer Monsoon

6

Status of the Antarctic Ozone Hole in 201610

TCC contributions to SASCOF-9

11

TCC Training Seminar on Primary Modes of Global Climate Variability and Regional Climate

11

El Niño Outlook (November 2016 - May 2017)consistent with common patterns seen in the past La Niña
events. As they are expected to continue in the coming
months, La Niña conditions can be considered present in
the equatorial Pacific.
The persistent subsurface cold waters observed in thecentral equatorial Pacific from July onward were stronger
in October than in September. These waters are expected
to produce ongoing cooler-than-normal sea surface conditions in the central equatorial Pacific during the months
ahead. JMA's El Niño prediction model suggests that the
NINO.3 SST will be below normal in boreal autumn andnear or below normal in boreal winter (Figure 4). In conclusion, the likelihood of La Niña conditions persisting
throughout boreal winter (60%) is higher than that of
ENSO-neutral conditions returning (40%) (Figure 5).

The likelihood of La Niña conditions persisting throughout
boreal winter (60%) is higher than that of ENSO-neutral conditions returning (40%). (Article based on El Niño outlook
issued on 10 November 2016.)
El Niño/La Niña
In October 2016, the NINO.3 SST was below normal
with a deviation of -0.5°C. SSTs (Figures 1 and 3 (a)) were
below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific,
and above normal in the western part. Subsurface temperatures were below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Figures 2 and 3 (b)). Atmospheric convective activity was below normal near the date line over theequatorial Pacific, and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (trade winds) were stronger than normal over thecentral part. These oceanic and atmospheric conditions are

Figure 1
Monthly mean (a) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and (b) SST anomalies in the Indian and Pacific Ocean
areas for October 2016
The contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and0.5˚C in (b). The base period for thenormal is 1981 – 2010.

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(a)Western Pacific and Indian Ocean
The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific(NINO.WEST) region was above normal in October, andis likely to be above normal until boreal winter.
The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean(IOBW) region was below normal in October, and is likely to be below normal in boreal autumn and near or below
normal in boreal winter.
Impacts
The ongoing La Niña conditions are considered to havecaused the warmer-than-normal conditions observed inWestern Japan and Okinawa/Amami and as well as theshorter-than-normal sunshine durations observed in Western Japan in October 2016.
In the same month, warmer-than-normal conditions in
the eastern part of the Unites States were consistent with
common patterns observed in past La Niña events.

(b)

Figure 2 Monthly mean depth-longitude cross sections of (a)temperatures and (b) temperature anomalies in the equatorial
Indian and Pacific Ocean areas for October 2016
The contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). The baseperiod for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

(Ichiro Ishikawa, Climate Prediction Division)
(a)

(b)

* The SST normal for the NINO.3 region (5°S – 5°N,
150°W – 90°W) is defined as an monthly average overthe latest sliding 30-year period (1986-2015 for thisyear).
* The SST normals for the NINO.WEST region (Eq. –15°N, 130°E – 150°E) and the IOBW region (20°S –20°N, 40°E – 100°E) are defined as linear extrapolations with respect to the latest sliding 30-year period, inorder to remove the effects of significant long-termwarming trends observed in these regions.

（ページ区切り）Figure 4
Outlook of NINO.3 SST deviation produced by
the El Niño prediction modelThis figure shows a time series of monthly NINO.3 SST deviations. The thick line with closed circles shows observed SST
deviations, and the boxes show the values produced for up to
six months ahead by the El Niño prediction model. Each box
denotes the range into which the SST deviation is expected tofall with a probability of 70%.

TCC News

Figure 3 Time-longitude cross sections of (a) SST and(b) ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies along the equator in
the Indian and Pacific Ocean areas
OHCs are defined here as vertical averaged temperatures in the top
300 m. The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

Figure 5
ENSO forecast probabilities based on the El Niño
prediction model
Red, yellow and blue bars indicate probabilities that the
five-month running mean of the NINO.3 SST deviation from thelatest sliding 30-year mean will be +0.5°C or above (El Niño),
between +0.4 and -0.4°C (ENSO-neutral) and -0.5°C or below (LaNiña), respectively. Regular text indicates past months, and boldtext indicates current and future months.

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JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Boreal Winter 2016/2017
Based on JMA’s seasonal ensemble prediction system, sea
surface temperature (SST) anomalies are predicted to be below normal in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this boreal winter,suggesting a likely persistence of La Niña conditions. In association with these oceanic conditions, inactive convection
anomalies are predicted over the central Pacific. Conversely,
active convection anomalies are predicted over the Maritime
Continent. In association with these convection anomalies,
equatorial symmetric cyclonic anomalies are predicted at thelower troposphere over the Maritime Continent, suggesting
the likelihood of a stronger northeast winter monsoon thannormal in Indochina.

(a) RAIN(b) CHI200

1. Introduction
This article outlines JMA’s dynamical seasonal ensemble
prediction for boreal winter 2016/2017 (December - February, referred to as DJF), which was used as a basis for the
Agency’s operational cold-season outlook issued on 25
November 2016. The outlook detailed here is based on theseasonal ensemble prediction system of the Coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model (CGCM). See
the column below for system details.
Section 2 outlines global SST anomaly predictions, andSection 3 describes the associated circulation fields expected over the tropics and sub-tropics. Finally, the circulation fields predicted for the mid- and high- latitudes of theNorthern Hemisphere are discussed in Section 4.

(c) PSI200

2. SST anomalies (Figure 5)
Figure 5 shows predicted SSTs (contours) and related
anomalies (shading) for DJF. SST anomalies are predicted
to be below normal in the equatorial Pacific Ocean
throughout the period, suggesting a likely persistence of La
Niña conditions. Conversely, they are predicted to be above
normal in most parts of the Maritime Continent. Additionally, they are predicted to be near normal in the Indian
Ocean.

(d) PSI850

3. Prediction for the tropics and sub-tropics (Figure 6)
Figure 6 (a) shows predicted precipitations (contours) andrelated anomalies (shading) for DJF. In association with the

Figure 6 Predicted atmospheric fields from 60°N - 60°S for
December-February 2016/2017 (ensemble mean of 51
members)(a) Precipitation (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour
interval is 2 mm/day.
(b) Velocity potential at 200 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 2 × 106 m2/s.
(c) Stream function at 200 hPa (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 16 × 106 m2/s.
(d) Stream function at 850 hPa (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 5 × 106 m2/s.

Figure 5 Predicted SSTs (contours) and SST anomalies (shading) for December–February 2016/2017 (ensemble mean of 51
members)

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oceanic conditions, precipitation anomalies are predicted
to be below normal over the equatorial Pacific Ocean andabove normal over the Maritime Continent.
Figure 6 (b) shows predicted velocity potentials (contours) and related anomalies (shading) for DJF in the upper troposphere (200hPa). Velocity potential anomalies at
200hPa are predicted to be positive (i.e., convergent) overthe equatorial Pacific, reflecting inactive convection.
Conversely, negative (i.e., divergent) anomalies are predicted over the Maritime Continent, reflecting active convection.
Figure 6 (c) shows predicted stream functions (contours) and related anomalies (shading) for DJF in theupper troposphere (200hPa). In association with the active
convections over the Maritime Continent, stream function
anomalies at 200hPa are predicted to be positive (i.e., anticyclonic) over Eurasia, indicating a northward-shifting
tendency of the subtropical jet stream.
Figure 6 (d) shows predicted stream functions (contours) and related anomalies (shading) for DJF in the lower troposphere (850hPa). Equatorial Symmetric negative(i.e., cyclonic) anomalies at 850hPa are predicted over the
Maritime Continent, suggesting the likelihood of a stronger northeast winter monsoon than normal in Indochina.
Accordingly, normal or colder conditions are expected in
Indochina despite resent global warming trends. These
atmospheric characteristics are consistent with those observed in past La Niña events.

4. Prediction for the mid- and high- latitudes of theNorthern Hemisphere (Figure 7)
Figure 7 (a) shows predicted geopotential heights (contours) and related anomalies (shading) for DJF at 500hPa.
Geopotential height anomalies at 500hPa are predicted to
be positive over most parts of Northern Hemisphere, reflecting resent global warming trends. Although strong
positive anomalies are predicted over northern parts ofSouth Asia and Southeast Asia and negative anomalies are
predicted over the sea to the southeast of Japan, this information should be interpreted with caution due to inconsistency with the atmospheric characteristics observed inpast La Niña events.
Figure 7 (b) shows predicted sea level pressures (contours)
and related anomalies (shading) for DJF. Sea level pressure anomalies are predicted to be negative over mostparts of Eurasia, suggesting a weaker Siberian High thannormal. However, this should also be interpreted with caution due to inconsistency with the atmospheric characteristics observed in past La Niña events. Conversely, sea levelpressure anomalies are predicted to be positive over the
Bering Sea and offshore to the west of North America,
suggesting a weaker than normal Aleutian Low in thoseregions. This is consistent with the atmospheric characteristics observed in past La Niña events.
(Takashi Yamada, Climate Prediction Division)(a) Z500(b) SLP

Figures 7 Predicted atmospheric fields from 20°N - 90°N for December–February 2016/2017(ensemble mean of 51 members)(a) Geopotential height at 500hPa (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 60 m.
(b) Sea level pressure (contours) and anomaly (shading). The contour interval is 4hPa.
JMA’s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
JMA operates a seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) using the Coupled atmosphere-ocean General Circulation
Model (CGCM) to make seasonal predictions beyond a one-month time range. The EPS produces perturbed initial conditions by means of a combination of the initial perturbation method and the lagged average forecasting (LAF) method. The
prediction is made using 51 members from the latest 4 initial dates (13 members are run every five days). Details of theprediction system and verification maps based on 30-year hindcast experiments (1981 - 2010) are available at
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/.

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Cold Season Outlook for Winter 2016/2017 in JapanJMA issued its outlook for the coming winter (December
2016 - February 2017) over Japan in September and updated
it in October based on the Agency’s seasonal Ensemble
Prediction System (EPS). This article outlines the outlook
update of 25 October.

* In consideration of the above, seasonal mean temperature tendencies are expected to be below normal inwestern Japan and Okinawa/Amami, near normal ineastern Japan and above normal in northern Japan.
(Masayuki Hirai, Climate Prediction Division)

1. Outlook summary (Figure 8)
In northern Japan, seasonal precipitation amounts andseasonal mean temperatures are expected to exhibit
above-normal tendencies due to major influences relating
to low-pressure systems and minor influences relating tocold-air advection from higher latitudes.
In western Japan and Okinawa/Amami, seasonal mean
temperatures are expected to exhibit below-normal tendencies due to major influences relating to inflow of cold air
from the continent. Seasonal snowfall amounts for the Sea
of Japan side are expected to exhibit above-normal tendencies in western Japan.
2. Outlook backgroundFigure 9 highlights expected large-scale oceanic/atmospheric characteristics for winter. An outline of the
background to the outlook is given below.
* Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected to be below normal from the central to the eastern tropical Pacificand above normal in the western tropical Pacific. Accordingly, the likelihood of La Niña conditions persisting
throughout boreal winter is higher than that of ENSO-neutral conditions returning.
* In association with the expected SST anomalies in thetropics, convection over the tropics is expected to be
more active than normal around the Maritime Continentand less active than normal over the central Pacific.
* In upper circulation fields, anti-cyclonic anomalies are
predicted over southern China in association with active
convection over the Maritime Continent. Relatively cyclonic anomalies are predicted around northern Japan,
which will be on the northeastern side of anticyclonicanomalies. Accordingly, upper-air westerlies are expected to meander northward around China and southward east of Japan.
* The Siberian High is expected to be stronger than normal
in its southeastern part in association with anticyclonicanomalies over southern China, which would bringstrong winter monsoon tendencies to southern Japan inparticular.
* Around northern Japan, lower sea level pressure andstronger cyclonic anomalies are predicted, which would
significantly influence low-pressure systems and create
above-normal-precipitation tendencies. Meanwhile, theinfluences of cold northern air would tend to be minor innorthern Japan with the weaker western (rather thannorthern) wind anomalies taken into account.
* Overall temperatures in the troposphere are expected tobe higher than normal in association with the prevailinglong-term trend. These tendencies are likely to increase
the chance of above-normal temperatures.

TCC News

Mean Temperature

Tercile Probability (%)

Winter (December – February)

Below : Normal : Above

Precipitation

Tercile Probability (%)

Winter (December – February)

Below : Normal : Above

Figure 8 Outlook for winter 2016/2017 temperature (above)and precipitation (below) probability in Japan.

Warmer tropospheric temperature180°

more active

Siberian High• expand toward the southeast• bring stronger winter monsoon
across western and southern Japan

low pressures

Climatological location

Subtropical Jet Stream• shift northward over the Asian Continent• shift southward over the sea east of Japan

more active
convections

La Niña
cooler SSTs

0°
warmer SSTs

Figure 9 Schematic diagram showing expected large-scaleocean/atmosphere characteristics for winter 2016/20175

No. 46 | Autumn 2016

Summary of the 2016 Asian Summer Monsoon
1. Precipitation and temperature
Four-month total precipitation amounts based on
CLIMAT reports for the monsoon season (June – September) were more than 140% of the normal in the Hokkaido region of Japan, in eastern China, in southern
Mongolia, in the area from northern Lao PDR to northern
Myanmar, in and around northern Pakistan and in central
Indonesia. Conversely, the corresponding figures wereless than 60% of the normal on the Korean Peninsula, in
northeastern and central China, in and around southern
India and in southwestern Pakistan (Figure 10(a)). Remarkably high precipitation was seen over the mid- to
downstream basin of the Yangtze River in China from
June to August and in Hokkaido in August.
Four-month mean temperatures for the same period(a)were more than 1°C above normal in many parts of East
Asia especially north of 30°N, and were slightly below
normal in parts of South Asia and Myanmar (Figure 10(b)).
2. Tropical cyclones
The first named tropical cyclone (TC) of 2016 formed
over the western North Pacific on July 3, making it thesecond-latest on record since 1951. Subsequently, however, the number of TC formations approached the normal. As of the end of September, there had been 18 TCs
against a normal of 18.4. Six of these made landfall on
Japan, which is the joint-second-highest number on record (after the 10 recorded in 2004).

(b)

Figure 10 (a) Four-month precipitation ratios (%) from June to September 2016(b) Four-month mean temperature anomalies (°C) from June to September 2016
The base period for normal is 1981 – 2010. Note that the data in Vietnam and Cambodia are interpolated due tothe lack of CLIMAT report or climatological normal.

Figure 11 Four-month mean OLR and
its anomaly for June–September 2016
The contours indicate OLR at intervals of
10 W/m2, and the color shading denotes
OLR anomalies from the normal (i.e., the1981–2010 average). Negative (cold color) and positive (warm color) OLR anomalies show enhanced and suppressed convection compared to the normal, respectively. Original data are provided by
NOAA.

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TC activity and tracks in August were
especially notable. A total of seven TCs
formed, with six approaching or making
landfall on East Asia and five approachingor making landfall on mainland Japan (climatological normal: 1.7). Some of theseTCs formed to the southeast of Japan andmoved northward toward the country. Thiswas unusual for the time of year, whenmost TCs in the region move westward
along the southern edge of the North Pacific Subtropical High. These unusual track
characteristics resulted in three TC landfalls
on Hokkaido for the first time since 1951.

Table 1 Tropical cyclones forming over the western North Pacific from Juneto September 2016
N u mbe r
ID

N ame

Date
( U TC)

Cate go ry 1 )T1 6 0 1
T1 6 0 2
T1 6 0 3
T1 6 0 4
T1 6 0 5
T1 6 0 6
T1 6 0 7
T1 6 0 8
T1 6 0 9
T1 6 1 0
T1 6 1 1
T1 6 1 2
T1 6 1 3
T1 6 1 4
T1 6 1 5
T1 6 1 6
T1 6 1 7
T1 6 1 8

NepartakLupit
Mirinae
Nida
Omais
ConsonChanthu
DianmuMindulle
Lionrock
Kompasu
Namtheun
Malou
MerantiRai
MalakasMegi
Chaba

7/3-7/9
7/23-7/24
7/26-7/28
7/30-8/2
8/4-8/98/9-8/14
8/13-8/17
8/17-8/19
8/19-8/23
8/21-8/30
8/20-8/21
9/1-9/4
9/6
9/10-9/15
9/12-9/13
9/12-9/20
9/23-9/28
9/29-10/5

TY
TS
STS
STS
STS
TS
STS
TS
TY
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
TS
TY
TY
TY

Maxu mu m
win d 2 )( kn o ts)
110
40
55
60
60
45
55
40
65
90
35
70
40
120
35
95
85
115

Note: Based on information from the RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center.
1) Intensity classification for tropical cyclones
TS: tropical storm, STS: severe tropical storm, TY: typhoon2) Estimated maximum 10-minute mean wind

3. Monsoon activity and atmospheric circulation
Convective activity (inferred from OLR) averaged forJune – September 2016 was enhanced from the eastern
Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent, over the areafrom the Bay of Bengal to the southwestern Indochina
Peninsula and from southern China to the seas northeast of
the Philippines, and was suppressed over the western partof the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 11). OLR index data (Table2) indicate that the overall activity of the Asian summer
monsoon (represented by the SAMOI (A) index) was nearnormal until August and above normal in September. The
most-active convection area was shifted westward of its
normal position until July (see the SAMOI (W) index.).
In the upper troposphere, the Tibetan High was stronger
than normal over its northeastern part (Figure 12 (a)). In
the lower troposphere, monsoon circulation over the Indian
Ocean was stronger than normal and cyclonic circulation
anomalies straddling the equator were seen over the areafrom the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent (Figure

12 (b)). Zonal wind shear between the upper and lower
troposphere over the North Indian Ocean and southern
Asia (Figure 13) remained above normal, indicatingstronger-than-normal monsoon circulation from mid-May
onward (except in the second half of July and the first halfof late August).
Convective activity over the Maritime Continent wasenhanced throughout the summer monsoon season, while
to the east of the Philippines it was suppressed in the firsthalf of the season and enhanced in the second half (Fig.
14). In the lower troposphere, cyclonic circulation associated with a deep monsoon trough was clearly seen over theseas to the southeast of Japan in August in association
with enhanced convective activity over the western North
Pacific.
(Section 1 and 2: Kenji Kamiguchi, 3: Hitomi Saitou,
Climate Prediction Division)

Table 2 Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index (SAMOI) values observed from May to October 2016
Asian summer monsoon OLR indices (SAMOI) are derived from OLR anomalies from May to October. SAMOI (A), (N) and (W) indicate the overall activity of the Asian summer monsoon, its northward shift and its westward shift, respectively. SAMOI definitions are as
follows: SAMOI (A) = (-1) × (W + E); SAMOI (N) = S – N; SAMOI (W) = E – W. W, E, N and S indicate area-averaged OLR anomalies for the respective regions shown in the figure on the right normalized by their standard deviations.
Summer Asian Monsoon OLR Index (SAMOI)SAMOI (A):Activity

SAMOI (N):SAMOI (W):

Northw ard-shift Westw ard-shift

May 2016

0.4

-0.8

1.2

Jun. 2016

0.3

-0.5

1.0

Jul. 2016

-0.4

0.1

1.2

Aug. 2016

0.5

0.3

-0.9

Sep. 2016

1.6

0.8

0.0

Oct. 2016

1.1

-0.9

-0.5

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Figure 12 Four-month mean stream function and its anomaly for June – September 2016(a) The contours indicate the 200-hPa stream function at intervals of 10 × 106 m2/s, and the color shading indicates 200-hPa stream function anomalies from the normal. (b) The contours indicate the 850-hPa stream function at intervals of 4 × 10 6 m2/s, and the color shading
indicates 850-hPa stream function anomalies from the normal. The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010. Warm (cold) shading denotes anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, and vice-versa in the Southern Hemisphere.

Figure 13 Time-series representation of the zonal wind
shear index between 200-hPa and 850-hPa averaged over the
North Indian Ocean and southern Asia (the region enclosedby the pink rectangle in the right figure: equator – 20°N,
40°E – 110°E)
The zonal wind shear index is calculated after Webster and Yang
(1992). The thick and thin pink lines indicate seven-day runningmean and daily mean values, respectively. The black line denotes the normal (i.e., the 1981 - 2010 average), and the grayshading shows the range of the standard deviation calculated forthe time period of the normal.

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No. 46 | Autumn 2016

(a) June(b) July(c) August(d) September

Figure14 Monthly mean anomalies of OLR (shading at intervals of 10 W/m2) and 850-hPa stream function (contour at intervalsof 2×106 m2/s) for (a) June, (b) July, (c) August and (d) September 2016

References
Webster, P. J. and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO:
Selectively interactive systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor.
Soc., 118, 877 – 926.

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Status of the Antarctic Ozone Hole in 2016
The Antarctic ozone hole in 2016 remained at the average
size observed over the last ten years.

The ozone layer acts as a shield against ultraviolet radiation, which can cause skin cancer. The ozone hole
first appeared in the early 1980s and reached its maximum size of 29.6 million square kilometers in 2000. The
Antarctic ozone hole has caused significant changes inSouthern Hemisphere surface climate in the summer, andwill continue to appear at least until the middle of the
century according to WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessmentof Ozone Depletion: 2014 Assessment for Decision-Makers. Close observation of the ozone layer on a
global scale (including that over the Antarctic region)
remains important.

Over the last 30 years, the Antarctic ozone hole has
appeared every year in Austral spring with a peak in
September or early October. It is generally defined as
the area in which the total ozone column is equal to orless than 220 m atm-cm.
JMA analysis based on Aura OMI data indicates that
the Antarctic ozone hole in 2016 appeared in mid-Augustand expanded rapidly from late August to
mid-September, reaching its maximum size for the yearon 28 September. At this time, it covered 22.7 million
square kilometers (see the upper-left panel in Figure 15),
which is 1.6 times as large as the Antarctic Continent. Its
maximum size was equivalent to the average observed
over the last ten years and less than that of 2015, which
was the fourth-largest since 1979 (upper-right panel).

(Atsuya Kinoshita,
Ozone Layer Monitoring Center)

Figure 15 Antarctic ozone hole characteristics in 2016
(Upper left) Time-series representation of the daily ozone-hole area for 2016 (red line) and the 2006–2015 average (black line). The
blue shading area represents the range of daily minima and daily maxima over the past 10 years.
(Upper right) Interannual variability in the annual maximum ozone-hole area
(Bottom) Snapshots of total column ozone distribution on the day recorded the annual maximum ozone hole area for the last three
years; the ozone hole is shown in gray. These panels are based on data from NASA satellite sensors of the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI).

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TCC contributions to SASCOF-9
The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology(DMH, Myanmar) hosted the ninth session of the South
Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-9) on 27 and 28
September 2016 in Nay Pyi Taw. The session provided aplatform for its 40 or so attendees to discuss seasonal
climate conditions in the upcoming Northeast Monsoon
period (Oct. 2016 to Feb. 2017). First, representatives of
WMO’s Global Producing Centers for Long-range Forecasts (GPCs), including Mr. Shoji Hirahara from GPC
Tokyo, provided dynamical model outlooks with focus on
the evolution of cool ocean conditions in the eastern
tropical Pacific during winter 2016/2017. This was followed by detailed country-scale outlooks from National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) ofSouth Asia. One of the key outcomes of the forum was aconsensus forecast for the eastern tropical Pacific suggesting equal likelihoods of 1) ongoing cool neutral

ocean conditions to continue and 2) a borderline La Niña
event to develop in winter.
The forum was held in conjunction with the second session of the Climate Services Users Forum for Agriculture(CSUF-Ag2; 28 – 29 September), at which experts fromagricultural administrations and research centers shared
their experiences of using climate information in the agricultural sector. Mr. Hirahara was also involved in active
discussions here to support better use of information forclimate-smart agricultural practices.
(Shoji Hirahara, Tokyo Climate Center)

TCC Training Seminar on Primary Modes of Global Climate Variability
and Regional Climate
JMA's Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) assists National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in
improving their climate services. The Center's two major
activities in this regard involve providing basic climate dataand products to NMHSs through its website and assistingwith capacity development at NMHSs in the Asia-Pacificregion. TCC holds annual training seminars as part of capacity development activities related to its role as an RCC
in the WMO RA II area. In addition to running annual
training seminars, it arranges expert visits to and hosts visitors from NMHSs to promote the effective transfer of technology and discuss the support for climate services.
In 2016, TCC held the Training Seminar on Primary

TCC News

Modes of Global Climate Variability and Regional Climate from 14 to 18 November 2016 at JMA Headquarters in Tokyo. The event was attended by 14 experts from
NMHSs in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Hong Kong (China),
Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia,
Mongolia, Myanmar, Pakistan, the Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet Nam. The seminar
focused on enhancing expertise for the identification of
statistical relations between primary modes of global-scale climate variability and regional/local climatesand on improving the capacity for related interpretationfrom a meteorological perspective. The course included
lectures and practical exercises using data, products and a

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web-based application tool available on the TCC website aswell as in-situ observation data brought by participants.
At the end of the seminar, all attendees gave presentations on the relationship between global-scale climate variability and regional/local climate conditions in their own
countries and related meteorological interpretation and engaged in fruitful discussions with lecturers and others present. The content of the lectures is available on the TCC
website at
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/library/library2016.html.
(Atsushi Goto, Tokyo Climate Center)

Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Japan Meteorological Agency
Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
TCC Website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html

Any comments or inquiry on this newsletter and/or the TCC
website would be much appreciated. Please e-mail to
tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.
(Editors: Kiyotoshi Takahashi, Atsushi Goto
and Yasushi Mochizuki)

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