No. 35

Winter 2014
Contents

Page

Page

Global Average Surface Temperatures for 20131

Highlights of the Global Climate for 20132

Summary of Japan’s Climatic Characteristics for 20134

The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55)

5

Upgrade of JMA’s One-month Ensemble Prediction System

6Complete revision of ClimatView for plug-in-free compatibility with Web browsers

8

TCC Activity Report for 2013

8

Global Average Surface Temperatures for 2013
The annual anomaly of the global average surface
temperature for 2013 was the second highest on record at+0.20°C above the 1981 – 2010 baseline.
Monitoring changes in temperature records on a decadal
to centennial scale worldwide is of primary importance inensuring
scientificallysounddiagnostics
andunderstanding of the state of the global climate. In its role
as one of the world’s leading climate centers, the Japan
Meteorological Agency (JMA) provides global meansurface temperature data (i.e., combined averages ofnear-surface air temperatures over land and sea surface
temperatures) on a monthly, seasonal and annual basis,
thereby helping to raise public awareness of the changing

climate.
The annual global average surface temperature anomaly
for 2013 was +0.20°C with regard to the 1981 – 2010
baseline period. This ranks as the second-highest figure
since 1891 – the earliest year of JMA’s global temperature
anomaly records (Figure 1, Table 1). The averagetemperature over land areas alone was the fourth highest on
record at +0.34°C above the 1981 – 2010 average.
Warm temperature anomalies were most noticeable
across much of the Eurasian Continent, in Australia andover the central part of the North Pacific Ocean, while theequatorial
Pacific
experienced
cooler-than-normal
conditions (Figure 2).

Figure 1Long-term change in annual surface
temperature anomalies averaged worldwide
The grey line with filled circles indicates yearly anomalies of
surface temperature. The blue line indicates the five-year
running mean, and the red line shows the long-term linear
trend. Anomalies are represented as deviations from the 1981
– 2010 average.

Figure 2 Annual mean temperature anomalies for 2013
The red and blue dots indicate temperature anomalies fromthe baseline period (1981 – 2010) averaged in 5° x 5° gridboxes.

TCC News

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No. 35 | Winter 2014

Table 1 Top 15 annual global average temperatures
since 1891 (Relative to the 1981 – 2010 baseline period)

On a longer time scale, the annual global average surface
temperature has been rising at a rate of about 0.69°C per
century. As shown in Table 1, each of the first 13 years of thecurrent century ranks among the warmest 15 years since1891. The recent high annual temperatures are best explained
as a consequence of disturbed energy balance between
incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation
resulting from increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations observed since industrialization began. On anannual-to-decadal time scale, the natural variability inherent
in the earth’s climate system is considered to contributesignificantly to temperature fluctuations.
The highest-ever global average temperature was recorded
in 1998 in the aftermath of a strong El Niño event. In 2013,
by contrast, the equatorial Pacific exhibited a La Niña-likepattern of sea surface conditions, which is generally
associated with cooler global temperatures. This makes
2013’s second-highest global average surface temperature on
record all the more remarkable in the context of global
warming.
Global average temperatures are monitored on an
operational basis by multiple climate centers (the Met Office
Hadley Centre (UK), the National Climate Data Center(USA), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (USA) and
JMA). On a monthly basis, these centers calculate the global
temperature independently of one another in terms of data
quality control policies, analytical approaches and othercomputational procedures. Despite this methodologicaldivergence, the results they produce indicate remarkably
similar levels of month-to-month and year-to-year variability
and an almost-identical long-term warming trend, though theranks for individual years may vary. The four sets of records

Rank

Year

Temperature anomaly

1
2
3
4
5

1998
2013
2010
2005
2009
2002
2006
2003
2012
2007
2004
2001
1997
2011
2008

+0.22
+0.20
+0.19
+0.17
+0.16
+0.16
+0.15
+0.15
+0.14
+0.12
+0.12
+0.12
+0.09
+0.08
+0.05

7
9
10

13
14
15

all show that the planet has become almost 0.8°C
warmer than it was at the beginning of the 20th
century.
Monthly and annual temperature anomaly datasetsfor 5° × 5° grid boxes are available for download at
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/
map/download.html.
(Yoshinori Oikawa, Climate Prediction Division)

Highlights of the Global Climate for 2013
Annual mean temperatures were above
normal in Siberia, from eastern China toeastern Europe, in Africa, from Alaska towestern Canada, in the northeastern partof North America, in northern andsouthern parts of South America and inAustralia, and were below normal aroundnortheastern China, in northern India, inwestern Europe, from central Canada to
the central USA and in Peru (Figure 3).
Extremely high temperatures were
frequently observed from eastern Japan tocentral China, in northern Europe, from
Mauritius to Madagascar, in eastern
Brazil and in Australia, and extremely
low temperatures were frequently
observed in western Europe.

TCC News

Figure 3 Annual mean temperature anomalies for 2013
Categories are defined by the annual mean temperature anomaly against thenormal divided by its standard deviation and averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The
thresholds of each category are -1.28, -0.44, 0, +0.44 and +1.28. The normal
values and standard deviations are calculated from 1981-2010 statistics. Land
areas without graphics represent regions for which the sample size of observation
data is insufficient or normal data are unavailable.

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No. 35 | Winter 2014

Annual precipitation amounts wereabove normal from eastern Siberia tonortheastern China, from the southernpart of central Siberia to central Asia, in
India, Southeast Asia and Alaska, from
northern to southeastern parts of theUSA, in Central America and innorthwestern Australia, and were below
normal in northwestern Africa, thewestern USA, the southern part of SouthAmerica and in central Australia (Figure4). Extremely heavy precipitation
amounts were frequently observed fromeastern to central Europe and fromsouthern Canada to the southeastern
USA, and extremely light precipitation
amounts were frequently observed ineastern and western Japan, in thenorthwestern USA and in eastern Brazil.

Figure 4 Annual total precipitation amount ratios for 2013
Categories are defined by the annual precipitation ratio to the normal averaged in
5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of each category are 70%, 100% and 120%.
Land areas without graphics represent regions for which the sample size ofobservation data is insufficient or normal data are unavailable.

Major extreme climatic events and weather-related
disasters occurring in 2013 are listed below (Figure 5).
(1) Flooding in the southern part of eastern Siberia (July –September)(2) High temperatures from eastern Japan to central China(March, July − August)(3) Light precipitation in eastern and western Japan(March, May)
(4) Typhoon in the Philippines (November)(5) Torrential rain over the Indochina Peninsula(September – October)(6) Torrential rain in India and Nepal (June)(7) Torrential rain in Pakistan and Afghanistan (August)(8) High temperatures in northern Europe (May – June,
August – September)(9) Low temperatures in western Europe (March – June)(10) Heavy precipitation from eastern to central Europe(January – March, May – June)(11) Cyclone in Somalia (November)(12) Torrential rain in Zimbabwe and Mozambique(January)(13) High temperatures from Mauritius to Madagascar(September – December)(14) Heavy precipitation from southern Canada to thesoutheastern USA (January, April – June, October)(15) Light precipitation around the northwestern USA(November – December)(16) Hurricanes in Mexico (September)(17) High temperatures (January – April, June) and light
precipitation (February – March) in eastern Brazil(18) High temperatures in Australia (January, March –April, July – October)(Kazuyoshi Yoshimatsu, Tokyo Climate Center)

Figure 5 Major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters across the world in 2013
Major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters that occurred during the year are indicated schematically.

TCC News3

No. 35 | Winter 2014

Summary of Japan’s Climatic Characteristics for 2013
- Annual mean temperatures were above normal
all over Japan except in northern Japan, where
they were near normal. Annual precipitation
amounts were significantly above normal on the
Sea of Japan side of northern and eastern Japan.
Annual sunshine durations were significantly
above normal in eastern and western Japan.
- Northern, eastern and western Japan
experienced cold winter conditions. On the Sea
of Japan side of northern Japan, record-breaking
snow was observed at some stations such as
Sukayu in Aomori Prefecture, where themaximum snow depth was 566 cm (the deepest
ever recorded in Japan).
- The summer mean temperature was the highest
since 1946 in western Japan. The temperature at
Ekawasaki in Kochi Prefecture reached 41.0°C(the highest ever recorded in Japan).
- Hazardous extremely heavy rains were observedin some areas due to active fronts and typhoons.

NorthernJapan

EasternJapan

WesternJapan

Okinawa/
Amami
Figure 6
Time series of five-day running mean temperature
anomalies for subdivisions (January – December 2013)
The normal is the 1981 – 2010 average.

(1) Annual characteristics (Figures 6 and 7)
Temperatures tended to be above normal during thewarm season, and significantly above-normal temperatures
were observed periodically. Moving high pressure systems
were dominant and brought sunny weather to eastern andwestern Japan in spring and autumn. Meanwhile, northern
Japan remained susceptible to the influence of cyclones
throughout the year. Okinawa/Amami experienced moresunny days than usual in summer and autumn.
(2) Seasonal characteristics(a) Winter (December 2012 – February 2013)
The winter monsoon was stronger than normal
throughout winter, especially in northern Japan.
Temperatures were below normal all over the country
except in Okinawa/Amami. The Sea of Japan side ofnorthern Japan was often hit by heavy snowfall, andrecord-breaking maximum snow depths were recorded at
12 stations.
(b) Spring (March – May)
Moving high pressure systems brought more sunnydays than usual to eastern and western Japan, while
cyclones and cold air advection brought more wet andchilly days than usual to northern Japan.

Figure 7
2013

Annual climate anomalies/ratios for Japan in(c) Summer (June – August)
The North Pacific high was dominant over the southernpart of Japan and brought sunny and hot conditions to
Okinawa/Amami, western Japan and the Pacific side ofeastern Japan. Meanwhile, the Baiu front lingered aroundnorthern Japan mainly in July, and significantly humid air
masses flowed over the Sea of Japan along the westernedge of the North Pacific high. As a result, extremely
heavy rains caused disasters in some areas.

(d) Autumn (September – November)
In most parts of Japan, moving high pressure systems
brought more sunny days than usual, while heavy rains
were occasionally brought by typhoons, active fronts andcyclones. Nine typhoons approached Japan during
autumn, which was the joint-highest total on record.

TCC News

4(Norihisa Fujikawa, Climate Prediction Division)

No. 35 | Winter 2014

The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55)
Production of the new JRA-55 dataset is now complete,and early results of quality assessment suggest that manyof the deficiencies seen in JRA-25 have been eliminated or
reduced. The temporal consistency of temperature analysis
with JRA-55 shows optimal performance with few jumps
among instances of reanalysis. JRA-55 familyinter-comparison provides opportunities for quantitative
assessment regarding the representation of climatic trends
and low-frequency variations.
1. Outline of JRA-55 (Figure 8, Table 2)
JMA has completed the second Japanese global
reanalysis, known formally as JRA-55 and informally as
JRA Go! Go! (as “go” is the Japanese word for “five”), toprovide a comprehensive atmospheric dataset suitable forthe study of climate change and multi-decadal variability.
The data cover a period of 55 years extending back to1958 when regular radiosonde observations became
operational on a global basis. The data assimilation
system for JRA-55 is based on JMA’s operational data
assimilation system (as of December 2009), which has
been extensively improved since the JRA-25 dataset was
produced. JRA-55 is the first global atmosphericreanalysis to apply four-dimensional variational
assimilation (4D-Var) to the last half century including the
pre-satellite era. For details of JRA-55, see the JRA-55
comprehensive report (to be submitted to the Journal of
the Meteorological Society of Japan shortly).
JMA continues the production of JRA-55 dataset on anear real-time basis using the same data assimilation
system as used for this dataset. The near real-time productis also called JRA-55.

Figure 8
Chronology of observational data types
assimilated in JRA-55

Table 2Comparison of JRA-25 and JRA-55 data
assimilation systems
JRA-55
Operational as of Dec 2009
TL319L60 (~ 60 km)
Resolution
top layer at 0.1 hPa
4D-Var (T106 inner model)
Assimilation
Background error covariances areschemeinflated by 1.8 before 1972
Satellite radiance Adaptive but not variational Variational bias correction
bias correction
Line absorption
Line absorption
Statistical band model
Table lookup + K-distribution
Long-wave
Water vapor continuum
radiation scheme Water vapor continuum
e-type only
e-type + P-type
Green house
CO2 only
CO2, CH4, N2O, CFC-11, 12, HCFC-22
gases(constant at 375 ppmv)(historical concentrations)
VersionJRA-25/JCDAS
Operational as of Mar 2004
T106L40 (~ 120 km)
top layer at 0.4 hPa
3D-Var (T106 resolution)

2. Basic performance of the data assimilation system(Figure 9)
Forecast scores obtained using JRA-55 data show
remarkable improvement over those obtained with
JRA-25. Scores for the Northern Hemisphere areparticularly stable, indicating high temporal consistency inthe region.
3. Early results of quality assessment (Figure 10)
Representation of long-term trends and low-frequency
variations has been a major issue in reanalysis. With
JRA-55, the temporal consistency of temperature analysis
has improved considerably from that of previous instancesof reanalysis.
4. JRA-55 family (Figure 11)
JMA’s Meteorological Research Institute is currently
conducting conventional observation-only reanalysis(JRA-55C) and AGCM simulation (JRA-55AMIP) withthe common base Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
system used for JRA-55. Figure 11 shows thequasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) represented by eachmember of the family. This inter-comparison suggests thatradiosonde observations play an important role in
reproducing QBO in the JRA-55 system.

TCC News

Figure 9 Time-series representation of RMS errors infive-day forecasts of 500-hPa geopotential height (gpm)verified against their own analyses

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No. 35 | Winter 2014

5. Product availability
The JRA-55 product is available for research purposes
from the JMA Data Distribution System (JDDS)(http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html). A JRA-25
user account can also be used to download the product.
JRA-55 data are provided by collaborative organizations
as well as by JMA. JRA-55C and JRA-55AMIP
production will be completed in FY 2014, and basic
related products are scheduled for release soon after.
Collaborating organizations: Data Integration & Analysis System (DIAS)
Link for data access:
http://dias-dmg.tkl.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/dmm/doc/JRA-55DIAS-en.html
 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Links for data access:Daily 3-hourly and 6-hourly Data
http://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds628.0/
Monthly Means and Variances
http://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds628.1/(Shinya Kobayashi, Yukinari Ota, Yayoi Harada andHirokatsu Onoda, Climate Prediction Division)

Figure 10 Time-series representation of global mean
temperature anomalies
Anomalies are calculated with respect to their own averages
for the years from 1980 to 2001.
JRA-55JRA-55C

JRA-55AMIP

C. Kobayashi

Figure 11 Time-series representation of zonal wind(m/s) averaged for the equatorial band between 5°S
and 5°N

Upgrade of JMA’s One-month Ensemble Prediction System
JMA plans to implement a major upgrade of its Ensemble
Prediction System (EPS) for operational one-monthforecasting (One-month EPS) on 6 March 2014. The productdissemination day will change from Friday to Thursday inconnection with this development, which will enable users
to obtain One-month EPS products a day earlier. The majorchanges to the One-month EPS and related performanceare described below.
New product dissemination timing
The dissemination day for graphical products andgridded datasets will change from Friday to Thursday withno modification to the specifications of gridded datasets(such as data format and variables). As a result, users will
be able to obtain One-month EPS products a day earlier.
This will take effect on Thursday, 6 March 2014.
Major updates
Major changes in the new One-month EPS are given as
follows:

TCC News- Atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM)
 Increased horizontal resolution from TL159 (110km) to TL319 (55 km)- Improvement of boundary conditions for the AGCM
 Usage of merged satellite and in-situ data Global
Daily Sea Surface Temperatures (MGDSST; JMA
2013; Kurihara et al., 2006) and related sea ice
concentration data with higher resolution (0.25 x0.25 degrees) than current SST and ice data
(COBE-SST; 1.0 x 1.0 degrees; Ishii et al., 2005)
 Application of initial anomalies of sea ice
distribution to calculate prescribed boundary
conditions for sea ice in order to produce more
appropriate results than those of calculation fromclimatological distribution only
- Ensemble method
 Introduction of a stochastic physics scheme inconsideration of model uncertainties associated withphysical parameterization

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No. 35 | Winter 2014

Performance
In advance of the upgrade, a full set of hindcasts for the
30-year period from 1981 to 2010 has been executed using
the new system. Atmospheric and land initial conditions
for the experiments were taken from the Japanese 55-year
Reanalysis (JRA-55; See page 5), which is a new
advanced reanalysis dataset produced by JMA.
Verification of the hindcasts indicates significant
prediction skill enhancement. For example, anomaly
correlation coefficients of 850-hPa temperature (T850)
and sea level pressure (SLP) over the tropics show
improvement under the new system (Figure 12).

Prediction (NWP) Research, Japan Meteorological
Agency, Tokyo, Japan, 138. Available online at
http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/nwp/out
line2013-nwp/index.htm.
Kurihara, Y., T. Sakurai, and T. Kuragano, 2006: Global
daily sea surface temperature analysis using data fromsatellite microwave radiometer, satellite infrared
radiometer and in-situ observations (in Japanese).
Weather Bull., 73, s1 – s18.

One-month EPS products are available on the TCC
website at
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/index.html.
The gridded datasets used for operational forecastingand hindcasting are also available exclusively toregistered NMHSs. To register, contact TCC at
tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.

0.7(Masayuki Hirai, Climate Prediction Division)

0.6
0.5
0.4
V1103

0.2

V1403

0.1

References
Ishii, M., A. Shouji, S. Sugimoto, and T. Matsumoto,2005: Objective analyses of sea-surface temperatureand marine meteorological variables for the 20th
century using ICOADS and the KOBE collection. Int.
J. of Climatology, 25, 865−879.
JMA, 2013: Merged satellite and in-situ data global daily
sea surface temperature. Outline of the operational
numerical weather prediction at the Japan
Meteorological Agency. Appendix to WMO Technical
Progress Report on the Global Data-processing and
Forecasting System (GDPFS) and Numerical Weather

Table 3

0.3

0.0
JJA

DJF
T850

JJA

DJF
SLP

Figure 12
Anomaly correlation coefficients ofone-month mean 850-hPa temperature (T850) andsea level pressure (SLP) over the tropics (20°S –20°N)
The grey and red bars denote the current system (V1103)
and the new system (V1403), respectively. The
verification period is 1981 to 2010.

Specifications of JMA’s current and new one-month EPSs
Current system (until Feb. 2014)
V1103

Atmospheric model

New system (from Mar. 2014)
V1403

JMA-GSM (AGCM)

Resolution

Horizontal: approx. 110 km (TL159)
Vertical: 60 levels up to 0.1 hPa

Horizontal: approx. 55 km (TL319)
Vertical: 60 levels up to 0.1 hPa

Sea surface
temperature

Persisted anomaly with
COBE-SST (1.0 x 1.0 degrees)

Persisted anomaly withMGDSST (0.25 x 0.25 degrees)

Sea ice

Climatology of sea ice analysis(1.0 x 1.0 degrees)

Prescribed sea ice distribution(0.25 x 0.25 degrees)

Combination ofBreeding of Growing Modes (BGM)
Lagged Average Forecast (LAF)

Combination ofBreeding of Growing Modes (BGM)
Lagged Average Forecast (LAF)
stochastic physics scheme

Ensemble method

Ensemble size
Frequency of model
product creation

TCC News

50
Once a week
Every Friday

Once a week
Every Thursday

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No. 35 | Winter 2014

Complete revision of ClimatView for plug-in-free compatibility with Web
browsers
In January 2014, JMA/TCC implemented a complete revision of
the ClimatView online interactive climate database. This tool
enables viewing and downloading of monthly world climate data,
giving users access to statistics on monthly mean temperatures,monthly total precipitation amounts and related anomalies or ratios
for all stations where such data are available.
To view ClimatView graphics in the previous version, a plug-in(Adobe SVG Viewer for Windows Internet Explorer) was required,and graphics could not be displayed with other browsers. The newversion is designed to allow browsing without plug-ins using PHP
and its graphic library. It enables viewing with web browsers
including Firefox and Google Chrome in addition to Internet
Explorer.
Graphics such as distribution maps, time-sequential graphs anddata-lists are displayed in the same style as those of the previous
version, and data can be downloaded in comma-separated-value(csv) format (Figure 13). Data are available for the period sinceJune 1982, when JMA started receiving CLIMAT messages.
Current data are from the previous month or the month before it,
and are usually updated around the 10th of each month.
Note that the ClimatView web page has been moved tohttp://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/climate/climatview/fr
ame.php on the World Climate section of the TCC website.
(Toshiyuki Sakurai, Tokyo Climate Center)

Figure 13

Sample images from the new ClimatView

TCC Activity Report for 2013
In 2013, the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) continued tosupport the climate services of NMHSs in Asia-Pacificcountries by providing and enhancing data and products,
holding training seminars, sending experts and hosting
visitors.

1.2 Issuance of special reports on extreme events
In its role as a WMO Regional Climate Center (RCC) in
RA II, TCC monitors world climate conditions with focus
on Asia and the surrounding area. The Center issues reports
on extreme climate events and summaries of the Asiansummer/wintermonsoononits
websiteat
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/reports/index.
html.
In 2013, Japan experienced extremely hot summer
conditions. During this period on 13 August, TCC issued apreliminary report on the heat. To support the issuance of amore comprehensive statement on this extreme event, theCenter invited members of its Advisory Panel on Extreme
Climate Events (TCC News No. 28) to investigate anddiscuss related factors. The preliminary report and thestatement were issued both in Japanese and in English on
the JMA website, and the English versions were also madeavailable on the TCC website.
TCC also closely monitored a number of extreme events,
especially those listed below, and issued related media
releases in Japanese. These are available on the JMA
website at
http://www.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/cpd/monitor/extreme_world/
index.html.
- Heavy rainfall in Europe from May to the middle of June
- Heavy rainfall in India in June
- Heavy rainfall from central China to the northern part of
the Korean Peninsula in July
- Heat-wave and dry conditions in southern China in
July/August- Heavy rainfall over the Amur River basin (RussianFederation) from July to September- Heavy rainfall over the Indochina Peninsula mainly in
September
In its role as an RCC in RA II, TCC informed WMO ofevents in the region to assist in the preparation of the WMO
Statement on the Global Climate in 2013.

TCC News8

1. Highlights of 2013
1.1 Pilot project on Information Sharing on Climate
Services
TCC plays a leading role in the implementation of the
WMO RA II Pilot Project on Information Sharing on Climate
Services. In 2013, the Center collected climate information
provided by NMHSs as well as details of good practices on
the application of climate information in society via aquestionnaire survey. Based on the information received,
TCC worked on the development of a dedicated website.

No. 35 | Winter 2014

1.3 JRA-55
JMA recently completed the second Japanese reanalysis,known as JRA-55, thereby providing a comprehensive
atmospheric dataset suitable for the study of climate change
and multi-decadal variability. The data cover a period of 55
years extending back to 1958 when regular radiosonde
observations became operational on a global basis. JRA-55
is the first global atmospheric reanalysis to apply
four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) to
the last half century including the pre-satellite era. The
JRA-55 product is available for research purposes. For
details,see
the
JRA-55webpageat
http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html and the article
The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) in this issue.

Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency(BMKG) in July 2012 (TCC News 29). The main purpose of
the visit was to install a module for site-specific probabilistic
guidance for one-month forecasting, which is expected tocontribute to enhancing BMKG’s Climate Early Warning
System. The experts also led discussions and exchanged
views with attendees on improving climate services andengaging in future collaboration.
In October, a TCC expert visited the Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA) to install a module forsite-specific probabilistic guidance for one-month forecasting.
The expert also gave technical guidance on the module tosupport its use on an operational basis in the near future.

1.4 RA II RCC portal site modification
In 2013, the Russian Federation’s North Eurasia Climate
Centre (NEACC) was formally designated as a new RCC in
RA II. In response, TCC modified the RA II RCC website(http://www.rccra2.org/) in collaboration with BCC byadding links to NEACC climate data and products.

3.3 Visitors
In November, three experts from Indonesia’s BMKG
visited TCC for further follow-up activity toward theinstallation of a module to support site-specific probabilistic
guidance for one-month forecasting. During the visit, TCC
provided the experts with technical guidance focusing onverification procedures for one-month forecasting. The
attendees also participated in the TCC Training Seminar on
Seasonal Prediction Products.

2. Enhancement of data/products/tools on the TCC
websiteTCC strives to continuously enhance its services in theprovision of data, products and tools. In 2013, the following
data and products were made available on its website:
27 February: Table showing historical El Niño and La
Niña Events (El Niño Monitoring)
21 May:Time series of anomaly correlation in thetropics (NWP Model Prediction)
1 July:Regional map of ten-day/half-monthly mean
temperatures and total precipitation (World
Climate)Some of these new data/products were made available inresponse to requests by NMHSs, and are also expected to be
useful to other parties. The Center will continue toaccommodate requests from NMHSs wherever possible.
3.

Capacity development
TCC holds annual training seminars as part ofcapacity-development activities related to its role as an RCC
in RA II. In addition to running annual training seminars, italso arranges expert visits to and hosts visitors from NMHSs
to support exchanges of views on climate services and theeffective transfer of technology.
3.1 Training seminar
In 2013, TCC held the Training Seminar on Seasonal
Prediction Products from 11 to 15 November at JMA
Headquarters in Tokyo. The event was attended by 16 experts
from NMHSs in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Hong Kong (China),
Indonesia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia,
Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Papua New Guinea, thePhilippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet Nam. The seminar
focused on familiarizing the participants with the outputs of
JMA's numerical prediction model and improving their skills
in generating seasonal prediction products using statistical
downscaling methods. Presentations given by the lecturers areavailable on the TCC website (TCC News No. 34).

4. International meetings
4.1 Regional Climate Outlook Forums
RCCs are expected to actively contribute to discussions inRegional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs). In 2013, TCC
experts participated in the following RCOFs in Asia:- Ninth session of the Forum on Regional Climate
Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional
Association II (FOCRA II) held in Beijing, China, from
8 to 10 April- Fourth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum(SASCOF-4) held in Kathmandu, Nepal, from 18 to 19
April- Fifth session of the North Eurasian Climate Outlook
Forum (NEACOF-5) held in Moscow, RussianFederation, from 29 October to 1 November- First session of the East Asia winter Climate Outlook
Forum (EASCOF), held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, from4 to 6 November- Inaugural session of the Asian Climate Outlook Forum(ASEANCOF) held in Singapore from 3 to 5 December
TCC attendees gave presentations on seasonal predictions
based on JMA’s numerical model and participated in
discussions toward the formulation of a consensus statement
on regional forecasts.

3.2 Expert visits
In February, TCC sent experts to Indonesia for follow-up
work relating to the visit by experts from Indonesia’s

4.2
WMO Workshop on Operational Long-range
Forecasting: GPCs and RCCs, in support of NMHSs and
RCOFs
TCC experts participated in the WMO Workshop on
Operational Long-range Forecasting: GPCs and RCCs, in
support of NMHSs and RCOFs (November, Brasilia,
Brazil),givingpresentations
onexamplesofinformation/data/products output by RCC Tokyo and GPC
Tokyo (a Global Producing Center for long-range forecasts).
The Workshop made recommendations on steps needed tostrengthen the process of generating regional seasonal
forecasts through increased capability for the synthesis ofprediction information on global, regional and national
scales.

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4.3 Other meetings
On 28 October, the Second Joint RA VI Regional Climate
Centres Network Coordination Meeting took place inconjunction with NEACOF-5. The TCC representative
who attended NEACOF-5 was also present at this meeting,which provided valuable opportunities to learn about theactivities and coordination of the RA VI RCC Network andto introduce TCC’s work.
In 2013, TCC was also represented at other meetings
including the first session of the Intergovernmental Board
on Climate Services (IBCS-1, July, Geneva, Switzerland)
and the International Workshop on Climate Data
Requirements and Applications (March, Nanjing, China). At
the Operational Climate Services: A Dialogue on Practical
Action session held as part of IBCS-1, TCC gave a poster
presentation on JMA’s contribution to improving climate
risk management highlighting a new dedicated website topromote the use of climate information in such management.
5.

Publications
TCC has published its newsletter (TCC News) on aquarterly basis since 2005. The publication is intended toenhance communication and provide information to NMHSs
and related communities about recent TCC developments,
events and activities as well as details of the Center’sreports on the state of the climate, monitoring results andoutlooks. In 2013, TCC News Nos. 31 – 34 were issued andmade available on the TCC website.
Other English-language publications related to theclimate, such as Climate Change Monitoring Report 2012
and Annual Report on the Climate System 2012, were also
published on the TCC website.
6.

Other activities
TCC’s Ryuji Yamada, who serves as Chairman of the RA
II Working Group on Climate Services (WG-CS consistingof Expert Groups on Climate Services (EG-CS) andAgrometeorology (EG-AgM)) developed a work plan for theWorking Group in collaboration with co-coordinators andtheme leaders from each Expert Group.
7. Plans for 2014
- Contribution to the Global Framework for Climate
Services (GFCS)
The implementation of the GFCS has made international
collaboration through RCCs even more important, and TCC
plans to further strengthen its activities to lead RA II’s
contribution to the Framework. In light of the importantroles played by NMHSs in climate-related disaster risk
management (one of the key sectors in the GFCS), TCC
plans to enhance regional climate watch observation bymore actively providing NMHSs with relevant information
as necessary. A portal site for the Pilot Project on
Information Sharing on Climate Services will be launched inspring, and TCC will continue to collect pertinent
information from NMHSs to be shared with Members.

- New/upgraded data and products
In January, the web-based ClimatView interactive climate
database will be upgraded. To view ClimatView graphics inthe previous version, a plug-in (Adobe SVG Viewer for
Windows Internet Explorer) was required, and graphics
could not be displayed with other browsers. The newversion is designed to allow browsing without plug-ins
using PHP and its graphic library. It enables viewing with
web browsers including Firefox and Google Chrome inaddition to Internet Explorer. (Also see the article Complete
revision of ClimatView for plug-in-free compatibility withWeb browsers in this issue.).
JMA plans to upgrade its one-month numerical prediction
system in March. Hindcast experiments have already been
executed using the new system with the target period of
1981 – 2010. Forecast data and products as well as hindcast
gridded data with the new system will be made available on
the TCC website. (Also see the article Upgrade of JMA’s
One-month Ensemble Prediction System in this issue.).
In response to the release of JRA-55 data, all climate
products generated using JRA-25 data will be replaced byversions generated using JRA-55 data in March.
In spring, TCC plans to start monthly issuance ofcomprehensive information on climate monitoring andseasonal prediction to assist NMHSs in the creation ofseasonal forecasts. The document, provisionally named
Monthly Climate Discussion on Seasonal Outlooks, willcontain results of climate system monitoring and otherobservations from the previous month as well asinterpretation of seasonal prediction products from GPC
Tokyo, and will be published on the TCC website.
In spring, TCC will also start releasing Extreme Forecast
Index (EFI) maps via its website to show areas at high riskof extreme weather conditions in the next two weeks, suchas high/low temperatures, heavy precipitation/drought
conditions or strong winds. The maps will be produced
using one-month forecast products from GPC Tokyo.
- Capacity development
In the last quarter of the year, TCC will hold its annual
training seminar with a dozen invited experts as attendees.
The Center will also continue to dispatch experts to NMHSs
as necessary and host visitors from NMHSs upon request.
- Hosting of EASCOF
In autumn, TCC will host the second session of the East
Asia Winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF) with theparticipation of experts engaged in climate services at
NMHSs and researchers from China, Japan, Mongolia andthe Republic of Korea. At the event, the climate conditionsof the previous season will be reviewed, and the current
status of the climate system as well as the seasonal Asian
winter monsoon forecast for winter 2014/2015 will be
discussed.
(Teruko Manabe, Ryuji Yamada, Tokyo Climate Center)

Any comments or inquiry on this newsletter and/or the TCC
website would be much appreciated. Please e-mail to
tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.
(Editors: Teruko Manabe, Ryuji Yamada and Kenji Yoshida)

Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Japan Meteorological Agency
Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
TCC Website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html

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