Disaster Evacuation Planning in Areas Subject to Natech Risk
Introduction

Outreach and outputs

The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of conjoint natural andtechnological (Natech) disasters and evaluate the adequacy of emergency
evacuation planning for these types of events in Higashnada Ward, Kobe.
Meetings with local community associations, government officials and fire fighters
were carried out to collect data and information, and served to raise awarenessconcerning vulnerability to Natech risk and possible risk reduction strategies.

The project has allowed the research team to workwith local community associations in Higashinada
Ward. A workshop was organized with the Mikage
Community Association in July 2014, and sinceOctober 2015, members of the research team haveparticipated in the monthly meetings of the Goden
Community Association (GCA). In particular, the GCA
has been very keen in improving their disaster
preparedness and evacuation planning for Natech
disasters. The research team has participated at local
festivals and fairs, and a disaster evacuation drill. The
results of the this project will be presented to theGCA members in July 2015. The “Chemical Emergency
Response Guidelines”, developed in this project will
also be presented to the community.

Methodology
This study performed a Natech risk assessment using a qualitative and a semiquantitative methodology. A Natech risk index (NRI) for each hazmat containing
storage tank, in a territory for a given natural disaster scenario, can be definedaccording to the following expression: [NRI] = [HRL] * [D + Area_sc + C] (Eq. 1)
Where HRL is a score that indicates the likelihood of a release given the natural
hazard event; D is a score that accounts for the effects of potential domino
chemical accidents; Area-sc is a score that measures the potential consequenceson the population; and C is a score that measures the potential consequences on
essential facilities that are critical for the safety and well being of the community.
Three scenarios were studied: a. Nankai trough EQ; b. Kobe EQ in 1995; c. Tohoku
EQ in 2011. The estimated scores and the actual reported consequences for b. andc. (reference scenarios) are shown in Table 1 below. Figure 1 shows theevacuation advisory area and the estimated impact area for the Kobe earthquake.

The results of this project have been/ will bepresented at national and international conferencesby several members of the research team.

Conclusions

Higashinada Ward

Evacuation
shelters

Natech risk following a Nankai earthquake in the study area is not negligible,
pointing to the urgent need to better prepare residents and local officials.
Residents should be well informed about the Natech dangers in their area, as wellas the disaster prevention and preparedness measures they should take. In
particular they should be informed of they types of chemicals handled, thepotential accidents, and what they should do in the event of an accident
concurrent with a natural disaster.

Estimatedimpact areaNTable 1. Estimated NRI scores and reported consequences for reference scenarios

Kobe EQ
evacuation
advisory area

(Source: Google Maps)
Figure 1. Kobe earthquake (EQ) Natech evacuation advisory area
(red line), estimated impact area (concentric circles), and shelters.