Winter 2022

Table of Contents: TCC News No. 67
JMA’s New Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS3) ........................................................................1
2021 global surface temperature 6th highest since 1891 ........................................................................................4
Highlights of the Global Climate in 2021 ..................................................................................................................5
Summary of Japan’s Climatic Characteristics for 2021 .............................................................................................8
TCC Training Seminar on One-month Forecast.......................................................................................................10
Update of website on RA II Information Sharing for Climate Services ....................................................................11
TCC Activity Report for 2021 ..................................................................................................................................12

JMA’s New Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (JMA/MRI-CPS3)The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded its Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (Seasonal EPS) to the
JMA/MRI-CPS3 version on 10 February 2022.
1.

New Seasonal EPS

Details of the new system are available on the Tokyo(https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/cps3_description.html).

ClimateCenterwebsiteA major feature of the new arrangement is daily five-ensemble member calculation. Users can access to the latest
six-month forecast data from daily updated atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions and use them with their own
optimal ensemble structure of lagged average forecasting (LAF), such as 50 members (5 members x 10 days), 100
members (5 members x 20 days) and so on. In addition, JMA targets seamless usage for future shorter-range
forecasting.
2.

EPS performance

ENSO predictive skill is illustrated in Figure 1-1 with anomaly correlation coefficients (ACCs) for NINO3 (150 – 90°W,
5°S – 5°N) SSTs between MGDSST analysis. The hindcast scores computed with 10-member ensembles based on 15-

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day LAF starting every month for the period from 1991 to 2020. Improved overall ENSO predictive skill is observed
for all lead times.
Figure 1-2 shows ACCs averaged over the Northern Hemisphere (20 – 90°N) for three-month average 2-mtemperature between JRA-3Q reanalysis and 10-member ensemble hindcasts with 15-day LAF. The new system
exhibits enhanced performance over the previous one for all forecasts, and scores for other elements are also
improved overall. More detailed hindcast verification is available on the TCC website.
Skill in real-time seasonal forecasts is expected to be better than for hindcasts, as more ensemble members canbe used with the optimal LAF ensemble structure.
3.

New Seasonal EPS products

In its roles as the Tokyo World Meteorological Centre and the Tokyo Climate Center, JMA provides the real-timeseasonal forecast products listed below around the 20th of each month on the Tokyo Climate Center website. In linewith the seasonal EPS upgrade, all grid sizes have been enhanced from 2.5 to 1.25 degrees.
Table 1-1 Products from the new seasonal EPS available on the TCC website.
Gridded data
(ID/password
required)https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/gpv/model/CPS3/CPS3_mem.html
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/gpv/model/CPS3/CPS3_ens.html
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/gpv/model/CPS3_Hind/CPS3_Hind.html
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/gpv/model/CPS3/CPS3_syserr.html
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

Forecast maps

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/zpcmap.php
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/pztmap.php
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/zpcmap.php

Probabilistic

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/3-mon/index.html

forecasts

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/probfcst/warm_cold_season/index.html

Forecast indiceshttps://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/gpv/indices/index.html(ID/password
required)
Forecast SSTs

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/indices/3-

Indices

mon/indices1/shisu_forecast.php

Forecast

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/verif/4mE/index.html

Verification

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/verif/7mE/index.html

Hindcast

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/hindcast/CPS3/index.html

Verification

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Figure 1-1. ENSO prediction skill
Anomaly correlation coefficients (ACCs) for NINO3 (150 – 90°W, 5°S – 5°N) SSTs between
MGDSST analysis and hindcasts

Figure 1-2. Seasonal prediction skill
Anomaly correlations averaged over the Northern Hemisphere (20 – 90°N) for three-monthaverage 2-m temperatures between the JRA-3Q reanalysis and 10-member ensemble
hindcasts(YAMADA Takashi, World Meteorological Centre of Tokyo)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

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2021 global surface temperature 6th highest since 1891
JMA analysis indicates that the annual anomaly* of the global average surface temperature for 2021 (i.e., thecombined average of near-surface air temperatures over land and sea-surface temperatures) was +0.22°C above the1991 – 2020 average, making it the sixth-warmest year since 1891 (Figure 2-1).
On a longer time scale, the annual global average surface temperature has risen at a rate of about +0.73°C per
century. Global temperatures from 2014 to 2021 were the highest on record, with nine of the ten warmest occurring
during the last decade (Table 2-1). These recent high temperatures are thought to be affected by the global warming
due to increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations including carbon dioxide. In addition, the global
averaged surface temperature is affected by inter-annual to decadal natural fluctuations intrinsic to the earth’s
climate. The global mean surface temperature tends to decrease after La Niña events. The La Niña event that started
in boreal summer 2020 ended in boreal spring 2021, and another La Niña event emerged in boreal autumn 2021.
High temperature deviations were particularly evident over wide areas of southern Europe and Northern Africa
to the Middle East and East Asia, and over central parts of North America, the North Pacific and the Atlantic Ocean(Figure 2-2).
JMA monitors monthly, seasonal and annual average anomalies of global surface temperature, with resultsroutinely updated on the TCC website at https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/gwp.html.
* In May 2021, JMA replaced the 1981 – 2010 baseline period for global monitoring with that of 1991 – 2020 (seeTCC News No. 65).

Figure 2-1 Long-term change in annual mean surface temperature anomalies over the globe
Anomalies are derived from the 1991 – 2020 average baseline. The thin black line indicates surface temperature anomalies for each year,
while the blue and red lines indicate the related five-year running mean and the long-term linear trend, respectively.

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Figure 2-2 Annual mean temperature anomalies in 2021
The circles indicate anomalies of surface temperature averaged in 5° x 5° grid boxes. The annual mean global temperature anomaly isdetermined by averaging the anomalies, derived from the 1991 – 2020 average baseline, of all grid boxes weighted by the grid box area.

Table 2-1 Ranking of annual global average temperatures

Rank

Year

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

2016
2020
2019
2015
2017
2021
2018
2014
2010
2013

Temperature Anomaly
w.r.t. 1991 – 2020 average
+0.35
+0.34
+0.31
+0.30
+0.26
+0.22
+0.16
+0.13
+0.11
+0.07

(TAMAKI Yuko, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

Highlights of the Global Climate in 2021
Annual mean temperatures were above normal in the Northern Hemisphere and elsewhere, especially in theeastern part of East Asia, from the southern part of Central Asia to the northern part of Northern Africa, and fromeastern Canada to the northern USA (Figure 3-1).

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Extremely high temperatures were observed in at least five months from the northern Korean Peninsula tosoutheastern China, in and around the southern part of Central Asia, from the northern part of northern Africa to thewestern Middle East, from southeastern Canada to the northern USA, and in the central part of North America (Figure
3-3).
Central and western North America experienced heat waves in June and July, and Canada recorded a new recordhigh temperature.
Annual precipitation amounts were above normal from the southern part of Central Siberia to eastern China, inand around Indonesia, and in western India (Figure 3-2).
Annual precipitation amounts were below normal from the southern part of Central Asia to the eastern Arabian
Peninsula and in the northwestern part of northern Africa (Figure 3-2).
Extremely high precipitation amounts were observed in at least five months from the southern part of Central
Siberia to northern Mongolia, from Sumatra Island to Sulawesi Island in Indonesia, and in eastern and central Europe(Figure 3-3).
Extremely light precipitation amounts were observed in at least eight months from southeastern Canada to thenorthern USA (Figure 3-3).
Major extreme climatic events and weather-related disasters occurring in 2021 are listed below (Table 3-1; see also
Figure 3-3). Further details are provided in the Annual Report on Global Extreme Climate Events in 2021 on the TCC
website.

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Table 3-1 Major extreme climatic events and weather-related disasters worldwide in 2021

Type

Period

Area

(1)

Wet

January-February, AprilSeptember

From the southern part of Central Siberia to northern Mongolia

(2)

Wet

February, August-OctoberCentral China(3)

Heavy Rain

July

Central China

(4)

Warm

February-March, May, July,
September

From the northern Korean Peninsula to southeastern China(5)

Heavy Snow

January

In and around the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan(6)

TyphoonDecember

From the central to southern Philippines

(7)

Wet

January, March, AugustSeptember, November

From Sumatra Island to Sulawesi Island(8)

CycloneApril

From southeastern Indonesia to Timor-Leste

(9)

Warm

January, May, October

In and around the eastern part of South Asia

(10)

Heavy Rain

May-November

In and around South Asia

(11)

Flood

February

Northern India

(12)

Warm

(13)

Wet

(14)

Wet

January, May-AugustCentral Europe

(15)

Warm

January-February, MaySeptember, November

From the northern part of Northern Africa to the western Middle
East

(16)

Warm

January, March, June, OctoberWestern Saudi Arabia

(17)

Warm

January, September, NovemberDecember

The southwestern part of Western Africa

(18)

Wet

March, June-August, October

From the northeastern to southern USA

(19)

Warm

January, April, June, August,October-November

From southeastern Canada to the northeastern USA

(20)

Dry

January-July, November

From southeastern Canada to the northern USA

(21)

Warm

January, June-July, SeptemberOctober

The central part of North America(22)

Heat Wave

June-July

From the central to western part of North America(23)

Cold Wave

February

From the central to southern USA(24)

TornadoDecember

The central USA

(25)

Wet

May-June, AugustCentral Mexico

(26)

Warm

August-October, December

From eastern Peru to northern Bolivia

(27)

Warm

July-August, OctoberNovember

Northeastern Australia

TCC News

February, April-September,
DecemberJanuary, May, August,November-December

In and around the southern part of Central Asia
Eastern Europe

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Figure 3-1 Normalized annual mean temperature anomalies for
2021
Categories are defined by the annual mean temperature anomaly
against the normal divided by its standard deviation and averaged in 5°
× 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of each category are –1.28, –0.44, 0,+0.44 and +1.28. The normal values and standard deviations arecalculated from 1991 – 2020 statistics. Land areas without graphics
represent regions for which the observation data sample is insufficient
or normal data are unavailable.

Figure 3-2 Annual total precipitation ratios for 2021
Categories are defined by the annual precipitation ratio to thenormal averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of eachcategory are 70, 100 and 120%. Land areas without graphics
represent regions for which the observation data sample isinsufficient or normal data are unavailable.

Figure 3-3 Major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters worldwide in 2021
Schematic representation of major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters occurring during the year.

(OKUNAKA Yuka, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

Summary of Japan’s Climatic Characteristics for 2021
Annual characteristics
Japan’s climatic characteristics for 2021 can be summarized as follows:

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Annual mean temperatures were above normal nationwide, especially in northern and western Japan.
Annual precipitation amounts were significantly above normal on the Pacific side of eastern Japan andabove normal on the Pacific side of northern Japan, on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan, and in western Japan.
From December 2020 to mid-January 2021, extremely cold air from the north caused heavy snowfall on the
Sea of Japan side of the country. Heavy snowfall was observed from January 7th to 11th (including a 72-hour total of
187 cm in the Takada area of Niigata Prefecture and new snowfall records at 19 locations), causing extreme traffic
disruption. Winter snowfall was considerably heavier than normal on the Sea of Japan side of western Japan andheavier than normal on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan.
In August, a strong stationary front between the Okhotsk High and the North Pacific Subtropical Highbrought large amounts of water vapor, causing record monthly precipitation in western Japan.

Figure 4-1 Time-series representation of five-day running mean temperature
anomalies for subdivisions (January – December 2021)
The normal is the 1991 – 2020 average.

Figure 4-2 Annual climate anomalies/ratios forJapan in 2021

Seasonal characteristics(a) Winter (December 2020 – February 2021)
The winter monsoon was stronger than normal in the first half of winter and weaker than normal in the second
half. These conditions brought large variations in temperatures all over Japan.
Seasonal temperatures were significantly above normal in eastern Japan. Seasonal precipitation amounts weresignificantly above normal on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan due to cold air inflow and frequent passage of
low-pressure systems. Seasonal sunshine durations were significantly above normal in western Japan due to frequentpassage of high-pressure systems in the second half of winter.
(b)Spring (March – May)
Seasonal temperatures were significantly above normal nationwide due to significantly weak cold air-mass inflow
in March and other factors. Stronger-than-normal activity in low-pressure systems throughout spring caused seasonal
precipitation amounts to be significantly above normal in northern Japan. The Baiu rain front was active and displaced
northward of its normal climatological latitude in May, causing seasonal precipitation amounts to be significantly

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above normal on the Pacific side of western Japan. Seasonal sunshine durations were significantly above normal in
Okinawa/Amami.
(c) Summer (June – August)Seasonal precipitation amounts were significantly above normal on the Pacific side of eastern Japan and in westernJapan, mainly due to active stationary fronts and moist air inflow in August, while amounts on the Sea of Japan sideof northern Japan were significantly below normal. Seasonal mean temperatures and seasonal sunshine durations
were significantly above normal in northern Japan. Seasonal mean temperatures were above normal in eastern Japan,
and seasonal sunshine durations were above normal on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan. These observations
can be attributed to high-pressure systems in early June and late July. Sunshine durations were below normal in
Okinawa/Amami in association with tropical low-pressure systems passing around the region.
(d)Autumn (September – November)In the first half of autumn, the activity of the stationary autumn rain front and influences of typhoons were weaker
than normal. In the second half of the season, cold-air inflow to northern Japan was weaker than normal and cut-off
lows frequently affected the region. As a result, seasonal mean temperatures were above normal in northern andwestern Japan. Seasonal precipitation amounts were above normal on the Sea of Japan side of northern Japan, andbelow normal on the Pacific side of eastern Japan, in western Japan and in Okinawa/Amami. Seasonal sunshine
durations were significantly above normal on the Sea of Japan side of northern Japan, in eastern Japan and in
Okinawa/Amami, and above normal on the Pacific side of northern and western Japan.
(OKUBO Tadayuki, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

TCC Training Seminar on One-month Forecast
JMA's Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) has engaged in efforts to help National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs) improve their climate services since 2008. The Center's two major activities in this regard involve providing
basic climate data, products and tools to NMHSs through its website and assisting with capacity development at
NMHSs in the Asia-Pacific region. TCC holds annual training seminars as part of capacity development activities in its
role as an RCC in the WMO RA II area. In addition to running annual training seminars, TCC arranges expert visits to
NMHSs to promote the effective transfer of technology and discuss the support for climate services.
After the cancelation of the 2020 session due to COVID-19, the Training Seminar on One-month Forecasts was held
online on 1, 2 and 7 December 2021. The event was attended by 14 trainees and 4 observers from NMHSs in
Bangladesh, Bhutan, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal,
Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Viet Nam. The seminar focused on improving
knowledge about one-month forecasts and on enhancing skills in generating one-month forecast products using
statistical downscaling methods. The course included presentations and practical exercises using data, products anda web-based application tool available on the TCC website as well as in-situ observation data provided by attendees.
At the end of the seminar, all participants gave presentations on one-month forecasts in their own countries andengaged in fruitful discussions with presenters and others present.
The

content

TCC News

ofthepresentationsis10

available

on

the

TCC

websiteat

No.67 | Winter 2022

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/library/library2021.html.

Figure 5-1 Attendees and Tokyo Climate Center staff after the opening presentation by Mr. OBAYASHI Masanori,
Director-General of the Atmosphere and Ocean Department at the Japan Meteorological Agency (1 December, 2021)

Figure 5-2 Presentations and practical exercises at the seminar(WAKAMATSU Shunya, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

Update of website on RA II Information Sharing for Climate Services
Climate services today play increasingly important roles in helping various socio-economic sectors to reduce
related negative impacts and adapt to climate change and global warming. Against such a background, National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) need to provide high-quality, high-precision climate informationin consideration of accessibility and user needs, and engage in various activities related to the Global Frameworks for
Climate Services (GFCS) initiative to promote utilization of climate information in user sectors.
For the improvement of climate services and the successful implementation of GFCS, it is important to share
information on the services, good practices and lessons learned in climate-related activities, especially among NMHSs
in climatologically similar region. However, such important information has not so far been fully shared among NMHSs
in WMO Regional Association II (RA II). In response to Decision 35 taken at the 16th sessions of RA II, TCC operates a

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dedicated website at https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/RaiiInfoshare/ (see TCC News No. 36, No. 50 and No. 59 for more
information).
A November 2021 questionnaire survey conducted by TCC to support updating of the website generated responses
from as much as 11 countries. Based on the information provided, the site was refined in December 2021 and January
2022. TCC is committed to supporting the improvement of RA II climate services via the operation of the website.
(WAKAMATSU Shunya, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

TCC Activity Report for 2021
In 2021, the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) continued to support the climate services of National Meteorological andHydrological Services (NMHSs) in Asia-Pacific countries by providing and enhancing data and products, holding
training seminars, publishing quarterly newsletters and participating in online international meetings.
1. Enhancement of data/products/tools on the TCC website
1.1 Issuance of special reports on extreme events
In a mandate role as a WMO Regional Climate Centre (RCC) in Regional Association II (RAII), TCC monitors world
climate conditions with focus on Asia and its surrounding area. The Center issues reports on extreme climate events
andsummaries
of
the
Asian
summer/wintermonsoononits
website(https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/reports/index.html).
A series of heavy snowfall events hit Japan from mid-December 2020 onward, especially on the Sea of Japan side,with new records observed in some places. TCC issued a press release on factors behind this snowfall and low
temperatures around the country, and uploaded an English-language report to its website(https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/news/press_20210115.pdf).
Japan experienced record-warm weather conditions in March, and TCC issued a report summarizing the relatedcharacteristics of atmospheric circulation anomalies and the underlying mechanisms. The information was publishedin English on the Center’s website (https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/news/press_20210421.pdf).
In mid-August 2021, areas from western to eastern Japan experienced record-heavy rain. In this context, the Japan
Meteorological Agency (JMA), with the help of the Tokyo Climate Center Advisory Panel on Extreme Climatic Events(see TCC News No. 28), investigated atmospheric and oceanic conditions considered to have contributed to suchclimate extremes and summarized related primary factors. The comprehensive report is available on the website(https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/news/press_20210924.pdf).
1.2 Upgrade of the Global Ensemble Prediction System for One-month Prediction
JMA upgraded its Global EPS for one-month prediction on 1st April 2021, increasing the number of vertical modellevels from 100 to 128 and improving surface/atmospheric initial conditions. Hindcast gridded data and verification
charts for the new EPS are available to registered users via the TCC website.
Elsewhere, the provision of 2.5-degree forecast and hindcast gridded data for one-month prediction was

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terminated on 25 March 2021.
The ensemble size of forecast data for each initial day was changed from 24 to 25 for Tuesday and from 26 to 25
for Wednesday.
1.3 Release of Indian Ocean Dipole products
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a major mode of interannual climate variability in the tropics, significantly affecting
climate conditions on regional and global scales. From discussions with NMHSs (such as those held during the 2019
visit to Meteorological Service Singapore), TCC recognized a need to gather information on this mode. In response,
the Center released new online IOD products on 28 January 2021, including data related to monitoring and associatedeffects on global climate/atmospheric circulation. A brief description of the products is provided in TCC News No. 63.
1.4 Update of website on RA II Information sharing for Climate Services
For the improvement of climate services and successful implementation of the Global Framework for Climate
Services, it is important to share information on the services, good practices and lessons learned in climate-related
activities, especially among NMHSs in climatologically similar region. However, such important information has not
so far been fully shared among NMHSs in WMO RA II. In response to Decision 35 taken at the 16th session of Regional
Association II (RA II) to improve information sharing on climate services in the region, TCC operates a dedicatedwebsite (https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/RaiiInfoshare/, see TCC News No.36 for more information).
A November 2021 questionnaire survey conducted by TCC for updating of the website generated responses from
more than 10 Members thanks to the kind cooperation of their involvement. Based on the information provided, thesite was updated and refined in December 2021.
1.5 Operational application of new climatological normals for 1991 – 2020
Under the Technical Regulations of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO-No. 49), climatological standard
normals are averages of climatological data computed for 30-year periods (e.g., 1 January 1981 to 31 December 2010,
1 January 1991 to 31 December 2020 and so forth.) Countries should calculate climatological standard normals assoon as possible after the end of a standard normal period.
TCC switched from the previous climatological normal period of 1981 – 2010 to 1991 – 2020 on 19 May 2021. TCC
products (other than those from WMC Tokyo for long-range forecasting and Model Prediction for NINO Regions) havebeen based on this new period since that date.
2. Capacity development
TCC holds annual training seminars as part of capacity-development activities related to its role as an RCC in RA II.
In addition to running annual training seminars, it also arranges expert visits to and hosts visitors from NMHSs tosupport exchanges of views on climate services and the effective transfer of technology.
2.1 Training seminar
TCC holds training seminars every fiscal year (April – March), with the December 2021 event covering one-monthforecasts. The seminar was held online for the first time due to COVID-19. Details of the events are reported in TCC
News No. 66.

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3. International meetings
3.1 Regional Climate Outlook Forums
RCCs are expected to actively contribute to and lead profound discussions in Regional Climate Outlook Forums(RCOFs). In 2021, TCC experts participated in the following RCOFs in Asia:-

Seventeenth session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for
Regional Association II (FOCRA II-17) held online, on 7 May
Nineteenth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-19) held online, from 26 to 28
April
Twentieth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-20) held online, from 27 to 30
September
Ninth session of the East Asia winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF-9) held online, on 4 November
Seventeenth session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-17) held online, from 22 to 26
November
Twentieth session of the North Eurasian Climate Forum (NEACOF-20) held online, on 20 May

TCC attendees gave presentations on seasonal predictions based on JMA’s numerical model and participated in
discussions toward the formulation of a consensus statement on regional forecasts.
In collaboration with TCC, a representative from the World Meteorological Centre Tokyo (WMC Tokyo) attended
FOCRA II-17, SASCOF-19, SASCOF-20, and NEACOF-20 online. WMC Tokyo also produced presentation materials for
ASEANCOF-17.
4. Publications
TCC has published its newsletter (TCC News) on a quarterly basis since 2005. The publication is intended to enhancecommunication and provide information to NMHSs and related communities about recent TCC developments, eventsand activities as well as details of the Center’s reports on the state of the climate, monitoring results and outlooks. In
2021, TCC News No. 63 – 66 were issued and made available on the TCC website.
5. Plans for 2022
- Contribution to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)RCCs are expected to play a major role in the implementation of the GFCS. TCC plans to further strengthen its
activities and lead RA II’s contribution to the Framework. Such activities include the provision of further assistance to
NMHSs for better climate services, as well as maintenance of the portal site for Information Sharing on Climate
Services in RA II.
- New/upgraded data, products and tool development
As per TCC News No. 65, on 14 February 2022 JMA upgraded its Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (Seasonal
EPS) from JMA/MRI-CPS2 to JMA/MRI-CPS3, which was adopted as the basis for three-month prediction products
such as gridded date files, forecast maps and verification maps. Model forecasts of SST anomalies for NINO regions(provided via the El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole online resources) were also influenced by the upgrade.
Specifications for operational forecasting were changed from 13 ensemble members every 5 days to 5 ensemble

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members every day. The baseline period for seasonal forecast products was also changed to 1991 – 2020.
In line with this upgrade, TCC plans to switch from CPS2 to CPS3 data provision as per the description page. CSP2
2.5-degree gridded data (GPV) for three-month and warm/cold-season prediction were discontinued in January 2022,
and those for six-month prediction will still be provided for a few months in parallel with the new CPS3 gridded data.
Further enhancements of the new dataset planned for autumn 2022 include the utilization of JRA-3Q (Japanese
Reanalysis for Three-Quarters of a Century), COBE-SST2 (Centennial in situ Observation-Based Estimates of the
Variability of SST and Marine Meteorological Variables, version 2), and MOVE/MRI.COM-G3 (the Multivariate Ocean
Variational Estimation/Meteorological Research Institute Community Ocean Model - Global version 3). These
improvements will influence several products on the TCC website, including the interactive iTacs tool, with details tobe provided in due course.
- Capacity development
In the last quarter of the year, TCC will hold its annual training seminar with a dozen invited experts as attendees.
The Center will also continue to dispatch experts to NMHSs as necessary and host visitors from NMHSs upon request.
The format of these activities (i.e., online or in person) will depend on COVID-19 developments.
(WAKAMATSU Shunya, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

You can also find the latest newsletter from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
JICA Magazine
https://jicamagazine.jica.go.jp/en/"JICA Magazine" is a public relations magazine published by JICA. It introduces the current situation of developing
countries around the world, the people who are active in the field, and the content of their activities.
Any comments or inquiry on this newsletter and/or
the TCC website would be much appreciated.
Please e-mail to tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.
(Editors: KAKIHARA Koichiro and WAKAMATSU
Shunya)Tokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency
3-6-9 Toranomon, Minato City, Tokyo 105-8431, Japan
TCC Website:
https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html<<Table of contents

TCC News

15

No.67 | Winter 2022