DECARBONISING PATHWAYS
FOR TASHKENT’S URBAN
MOBILITY
Synthesis of project results
July 2023

DECARBONISING PATHWAYS
FOR TASHKENT’S URBAN
MOBILITY
This publication presents the results of the national study for
Uzbekistan under the Sustainable Infrastructure Programme in
Asia (SIPA).

It features the impacts of three policy scenarios on passenger
transport demand and emissions in the capital city of Tashkent
between 2015 and 2050. In light of these results, the ITF
developed a list of policy recommendations to promote andfacilitate the implementation of more ambitious decarbonising
policies for Tashkent’s urban mobility sector.
For more information, please refer to the project web page.

OUTLINE▪ SIPA-TRANSPORT FOR UZBEKISTAN▪ URBAN MOBILITY IMPROVEMENT PLAN
▪ SCENARIO DESIGN▪ SCENARIO RESULTS▪ TASHKENT’S URBAN MOBILITY MODEL▪ DOWNLOAD STUDY MATERIALSSIPA-Transport for Uzbekistan

SIPA overview
What is the Sustainable Infrastructure Programmein Asia (SIPA)?
▪

A four-year program supporting the development of cleaner
infrastructure in Central and Southeast Asia▪

Led by the OECD and funded by the International Climate
Initiative (IKI) of Germany’s Ministry for the Environment▪

The ITF leads transport-related studies. It aims to provide
transport policy guidance with a focus on
decarbonisation and enhanced connectivity by:o Producing an assessment of transport infrastructure
at both regional and national levels
o Providing policymakers with simulation tools to assess
the impact of policy options and identify effective
decarbonising measures

Sustainable Infrastructure Programmein Asia – Transport (SIPA-T)
Central Asia

Southeast Asia

Central Asia
regional
studySoutheast
Asia regional
study

Uzbekistan
national
study

Mongolia
national
study

Philippines
national
study

5Uzbekistan national study
What is the national roadmap study for Uzbekistan?
The national roadmap study for Uzbekistan developed decarbonising pathways for urban passenger transport in thecapital city, Tashkent. It emphasised the role of public transport and its development. It comprises four parts:• Understanding the urban transport context
1

in Tashkent: data collection, analysis of policy
priorities• Developing a public transport improvement
2
plan for Tashkent: strategies to meet
Uzbekistan’s goals regarding sustainablemobility•3 Quantitatively assessing decarbonising
pathways for Tashkent: tailor the ITF modelling
tool to estimate carbon emissions under threedifferent scenarios (Baseline, Current Policy,
Climate Ambition)•4 Disseminating best practices for low-carbon
transport systems

Study timeline
Pre-kickoff(virtual)

Kickoff andmission in
Tashkent

Improvement
plan handover

Scenario
workshop(virtual)

Model training
session(virtual)Final
dissemination
event

6

Urban Mobility Improvement Plan

Key policy recommendations
Planning and
Financing

Public Transport
Service✓ Restructure governance and establish a Metropolitan Transport Authority (MTA)✓ Adopt a Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP)✓ Integrate land-use and transport development✓ Create a hierarchical and intermodal public transport network to increaseridership and meet future demand✓ Transform informal public transport services to strengthen transport supply andimprove connectivity✓ Implement a new fare structure with a single ticket for seamless trips✓ Formalise the taxi market and reduce its competitivenessSupporting
Mobility✓ Leverage micromobility, shared mobility and digitalisation for convenient
multimodal integration✓ Regulate private transport to maximise the benefits of sustainable urban mobility

8Tashkent’s urban mobility improvement plan

For more information related
to the Urban Mobility
Improvement Plan, please
consult/download it from the
ITF repository.

9

Scenario Design

Policy scenarios for CO2 reduction
The ITF designed three distinct scenarios to assess
the CO2 reduction potential of different policy pathways.
The scenarios explore alternative futures, their impacts
on the transport system and their externalities.

1•

Baseline scenario: no measures are implemented
for sustainable mobility

2•

Current Policy scenario: expected and planned
measures are implemented

3•

Climate Ambition scenario: planned measuresare enhanced, and new measures are introduced

Data collection in cooperation withstakeholders in Uzbekistan

Development of a tailored strategic urban
mobility model for Tashkent based on city-specificdata and methodology from the ITF

Scenario definition with partners in
Uzbekistan: analysis of existing, planned andpotential measures

Model handover to the Ministry of Transport
for supporting local policy building

11

How did we build the Climate Ambition scenario?

Existing measures(current policy
scenario)

Can this measure be
implemented on alarger scale?
Climate Ambition
scenarioInternational bestpractices

Additional measures

12

Current Policy scenario
The Current Policy scenario refers to the existing and committed strategies, regulations, and initiatives in
the city to transition its mobility system towards low-carbon and environmentally sustainable.
Service improvement for public
transport, introduction of priority
lanes, fare integration

PublicTransport
Promotion

SharedTransport
Promotion

Infrastructure
Expansion

Current
PolicyScenario

Development of public
transport, cycling andpedestrian networks

Restrictive
and Pricing
Measures

Other
Measures

Teleworking promotion

Incentives for ride- andbike-sharing, taxi market
reformParking pricing and restrictions

VehicleTechnology
Development

Increased shares of electricvehicles in private and public fleets13

Climate Ambition scenario
The Climate Ambition scenario builds upon the planned policies of the Current Policy scenario but withfurther enhancements aimed at achieving significant reductions in CO2 emissions to reach the climate goals.
Further improvement of public transport
services, enhanced prioritisation, launchof MaaS and on-demand services

Larger network expansion
covering all existing andfuture modes

Transit Oriented
Development andimproved urban planning

Stricter regulations for taxi andride-sharing, incentives for carsharing and carpooling, expansionof bike- and scooter-sharing

PublicTransport
Promotion

SharedTransport
Promotion

Infrastructure
Expansion

ClimateAmbition
Scenario
Restrictive
and Pricing
Measures

Other
Measures
VehicleTechnology
Development

Enhanced parking policies andfuel tax, introduction of vehicle
access restrictions and speed
limitations, road pricing, vehicle
purchase and ownership tax

Further increase in electrification ofprivate vehicles and fullelectrification of public transport fleet

14

Scenario Results
Impact per policy scenario

Overall CO2 emissions
Trajectories of CO2 emissions until
2050 by scenario
2500

Thousand tonnes

2000

Main findings▪

Baseline scenario, strong population and income growthand shift towards private vehicles result in a sharp increase inCO2 emissions.

▪

Current Policy scenario, planned policy actions reverse theemission trajectory; however, they are not sufficient toachieve Tashkent’s climate goals.

▪

Climate Ambition scenario, effective policy measures allow
for cutting CO2 emissions further and achieving
decarbonisation goals.

1500

1000

500

Evolution of CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2050

0
2020

2030

Baseline scenario
Climate Ambition scenario

2040

2050

Current Policy scenario

Baseline

Current Policy

Climate Ambition

Business as usual

Where we are heading

How far we must go

+42%

-24%

-68%
16

Transport demand
Passenger-Kilometers (PKM) in
2050 by scenario

Number of trips in 2050 byscenario
5000

30000

4500
25000

4000

20000

Million trips

Million trips

3500
3000
2500

2000

15000

10000

1500
1000

5000

500
0
Walk

▪

0
2020

Baseline

BicyclePrivate vehicles

Current Policy
Public transport

Population and income growthleads to almost a doubling
number of trips by 2050▪

Climate Ambition
Shared mobility

2020
Walk

BicycleShorter travel distances bytransport users in the alternative
scenarios result in reduced PKM▪

Baseline
Private vehicles

Current Policy Climate Ambition
Public transport

Shared mobility

Public transport serves around 47%of all trips, but 67% of all PKM in
the Climate Ambition scenario

17Passenger-Kilometers (PKM) by mode
PKM by mode from 2020 to 2050 Climate Ambition scenario

16 000

16 000

14 000

14 000

12 000

12 000

10 000

10 000MillionMillionPKM by mode from 2020 to 2050 Current Policy scenario

8 000

8 000

6 000

6 000

4 000

4 000

2 000

2 000

0

0
2020

2030

Active mobility
Private vehicles

2040

2050

Public transport
Shared mobility

2020
2030
Active mobility

2040
2050
Public transport

Private vehicles

Shared mobility

Note: dotted lines represent the Baseline scenario▪

The Current Policy scenario▪
measures already flatten the growthof PKM from private vehicles

Public transport becomes a dominant ▪
mode in terms of PKM only in the
Climate Ambition scenario

Active modes represent an important
share of trips but not PKM, serving
relatively short distances18Mode share
Mode share in 2050 by scenario
100%

Main findings▪

Baseline scenario, income and area growth leads toa noticeable increase in private vehicle ownership▪

Current Policy scenario, investments in active mobility,
public transport infrastructure and service improvement
favour a shift to sustainable modes▪

Climate Ambition scenario, additional measures boost
modal integration as well as target private vehicles allowing
for a further decrease in the usage of carbon-intensive modes

90%

80%
70%
60%

50%
40%

Share of sustainable modes* by 2050

30%

20%
10%
0%
2020
Walk
Public transport

Baseline

Current Policy Climate Ambition

BicycleShared mobility

Baseline

Current Policy

Climate Ambition

Business as usual

Where we are heading

How far we must go

46%

59%

87%

Private vehicles* sustainable modes include walk, bicycle, public transport and shared mobility

19

CO2 emissions by mode
1800

1800

1600

1600

1400

1400

1200
1000
800
600

1200
1000
800
600

400

400

200

200

0
2020
Private vehicles▪

Climate Ambition scenario

Thousand tonnes

Thousand tonnes

Current Policy scenario

2030
Public transport

0
2020

2050
Shared Mobility

Current policies have a limited ability to reverse theupward trend of private vehicle emissions, indicating
the need for more effective measures specificallytargeting this mode group.

Private vehicles▪

2030
Public transport

2050
Shared Mobility

Significant reduction in CO2 emissions under the Climate
Ambition scenario primarily results from a shift towards
less emitting transport modes alongside technologicaladvancements.

20

Tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions
Climate Ambition scenario

1400

1400

1200

1200

1000

1000

Thousand tonnes

Thousand tonnes

Current Policy scenario

800
600
400
200

0
2020
Private vehicles

▪

800
600
400
200

2030

Public transport

2050

0
2020

Shared Mobility

Considering only the tank-to-wheel component, the current
policies cut CO2 emissions effectively for shared mobility,
while private vehicles remain almost unaffected, contributing
to approximately 80% of the total emission volume in 2050.

Private vehicles

▪

2030

Public transport

2050

Shared Mobility

The Climate Ambition scenario effectively reverses
tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions, most noticeably fromprivate vehicles.

21

Well-to-tank CO2 emissions
Climate Ambition scenario

600

600

500

500

Thousand tonnes

Thousand tonnes

Current Policy scenario

400

300
200
100

300
200
100

0
2020
Private vehicles

▪

400

2030
Public transport

0
2020

2050
Shared Mobility

Considering the well-to-tank component, overall CO2
emissions are expected to increase, especially for private
vehicles. Stricter upstream measures are needed to reducethe carbon intensity of fuel production and distribution.

Private vehicles▪

2030
Public transport

2050
Shared Mobility

The Climate Ambition scenario succeeds in reversing the
trajectory of CO2 emissions. With greater reliance on
public transport, a higher share of cleaner fuels and thegreening of electricity sources are essential.

22

Air quality
Other emissions by scenario from 2020 to 2050
NOx emissions

SO4 emissions

PM2.5 emissions

40

6000

35

4500
4000

5000

3500

30

Tonne

Tonne

20
15

3000

Tonne

4000

25

3000
2000

10

0

Baseline

2000

Current Policy

1500

Climate Ambition

1000

1000

5

2500

500

0
2020

2030

Average annual PM2.5
concentration (µg/m3)

2050

0
2020

2030

2050

42.8

5

Tashkent, 2021

Limit fixed by the WHO

2020

▪

2030

2050

Transport decarbonisation brings co-benefits,
helping Tashkent address the challenge of highconcentrations of local pollutants.

23

Scenario Results
Impact per policy direction

Breakdown by policy direction
Breakdown of CO2
reduction by policy direction

Annual urban mobility CO2 emissions
until 2050 by scenario
2 500

18.8% from vehicle technology
development-46%

Thousand tonnes

2 000

23.7% from infrastructure expansion
10.1% from PT promotion

1 500

-78%

6.4% from shared transport promotion
9.9% from restrictive and pricing measures

1 000

9.1% from other measures

CO2 emissions in 2050

500

0
2020
Baseline

2030
Current Policy

2050
Climate Ambition-46%

Current Policy scenario
vs Baseline scenario-78%

Climate Ambition scenario
vs Baseline scenario

25

Vehicle technology development
Quantification▪

Percentage of various vehicle technologies in
the private vehicle and bus fleet

ImpactReduction in transport-related CO2 emissions attributed
to the measures compared to Baseline in the same year

Current Policy▪

Delivery of 230 electric buses by 2023▪

Production of electric buses in Uzbekistan▪

Target: 35% of electric cars and 70% of electricbuses by 2050

By 2030

By 2050

Current
Policy-6%-19%

ClimateAmbition

-10%

-27%

Climate Ambition▪

50% of private vehicles are electric in 2050▪

Full electrification of the bus fleet by 2050

26

Infrastructure expansion
Quantification▪

Network length of metro, BRT, suburban rail, conventionalbus, minibus, bike and pedestrian infrastructure

ImpactReduction in transport-related CO2 emissions attributed
to the measures compared to Baseline in the same year

Current Policy▪

Extension of the existing metro network with over 40 stations▪

Development of a BRT system of approx. 100 km in 2050▪

Development of cycling (250 km) and pedestrian networks

By 2030

By 2050

Current
Policy-12%-22%

ClimateAmbition

-17%

-34%

Climate Ambition (2050 values)▪

Metro network: +20% length▪

BRT network: +50% length▪

Suburban rail network: double the number of stations▪

Conventional bus network: +40% length▪

Bike network: 200 km longer▪

Pedestrian network: +10% length27

Public transport promotion
Quantification▪

Increase of operating speed, share of dedicated bus lanes,
average trip cost, MaaS subscriptions, on-demand fleet

Current Policy▪

Application of a multi-level structure (trunk, ring, connecting,feeding) to 159 bus routes▪

Target: double the average frequency of bus services by 2035▪

Development of priority lanes on 11 trunk bus routes▪

Introduction of a new fare system with a single ticket

ImpactReduction in transport-related CO2 emissions attributed
to the measures compared to Baseline in the same year

By 2030

By 2050

Current
Policy-3%-8%

ClimateAmbition

-5%

-15%

Climate Ambition▪

+10% to the operating speed of mass transit and buses▪

+10% to the dedicated bus network▪

Launch of MaaS with 30% of users subscribed by 2050▪

Launch of an on-demand service (350 vehicles in 2050)

28

Shared transport promotion
Quantification▪

Size of taxi, ride-, car-, bike and scooter sharing
fleets; share of legal operators in the taxi fleet, loadfactor for private vehicles

ImpactReduction in transport-related CO2 emissions attributed
to the measures compared to Baseline in the same year

Current Policy▪

Taxi market reform, including legalisation (approx. 60%)▪

Target: 7000 taxis, 18000 ride-sharing vehicles, 1400
shared bikes and scooters in 2050

By 2030

By 2050

Current
Policy-3%-0.2%

ClimateAmbition-3%-9%

Climate Ambition▪

Stricter regulation of the taxi and ride-sharing services▪

Only legal vehicles in operation▪

Launch of car-sharing (2000 vehicles by 2050)▪

Double the size of shared micromobility▪

Incentives for carpooling29

Restrictive measures
Quantification▪

Share of the city core under parking restrictions,share of vehicles restricted from circulating within thecity, speed limit reduction

ImpactReduction in transport-related CO2 emissions attributed
to the measures compared to Baseline in the same year

Current Policy▪

Target: 10% of the city core receives restrictedparking by 2025

Climate Ambition▪

Extend the parking restriction share to 25%▪

Introduce vehicle access restrictions resulting in
10% less traffic▪

Reduce the speed limit on urban roads to 60 km/h
by 2025

By 2030

By 2050

Current
Policy-0.2%-4%ClimateAmbition

-0.5%

-5%

30

Pricing measures
Quantification▪

Increase in vehicle purchase, ownership and usage
cost; road and parking charges

ImpactReduction in transport-related CO2 emissions attributed
to the measures compared to Baseline in the same year

Current Policy▪

Paid parking on 12 streets with further expansion▪

Target: parking fare of 2000 UZS per hour in 2025

Climate Ambition▪

Implement congestion charging (approx. 12000 UZS
for entry in 2030)▪

Gradually increase fuel tax towards 10% in 2050▪

Introduce additional vehicle ownership or purchase
tax that would increase expenses by 5% in 2050

By 2030

By 2050

Current
Policy-1%-2%

ClimateAmbition

-2%

-9%

31

Other measures
Quantification▪

Share of population regularly teleworking, increase indiversity of land use and density around the public
transport network

ImpactReduction in transport-related CO2 emissions attributed
to the measures compared to Baseline in the same year

Current Policy▪
▪

Land-use elements are not incorporated into transport
planning
No incentives for promoting teleworking are in place

By 2030

By 2050

Current
Policy0%0%

ClimateAmbition

-7%

-13%

Climate Ambition▪

Promotion of teleworking to attain a 10% level▪

Implementation of Transit Oriented Development
practices for better accessibility

32

Comparison and summary
VehicleTechnology
Development

Infrastructure
Expansion

PublicTransport
Promotion

SharedTransport
Promotion

Restrictive
Measures

Pricing
Measures

Other
Measures

-12%
-22%

-3%
-8%

-3%
-0.2%

-0.2%
-4%

-1%
-2%

0%
0%

-17%
-34%

-5%
-15%

-3%
-9%

-0.5%
-5%

-2%
-9%

-7%
-13%

Current Policy*
By 2030
By 2050-6%-19%

Climate Ambition*
By 2030
By 2050-10%-27%

Policy priorities✓ Begin with “soft” measures requiring less time and resources to implement while planning for “hard” structural changes✓ Develop a hierarchical and integrated public transport network that will become the backbone of urban mobility✓ In parallel, introduce and enhance shared and micromobility to further support public transport✓ Following the establishment of sustainable modes as a feasible alternative, target the use of private vehicles*The sum does not equal to total CO2 emissions reductions as the analysis by individual policy direction does not account for combined effects

33

Other non-measured benefits
Decrease of local air pollutants(NOx, PM2.5, SO4)

Healthier community
Increased use of active mobility andmore walkable city
Increased safety
Decrease of PKM travelled by car
Reduced congestion34

Tashkent’s Urban Mobility ModelIntroduction to the modelling tool
▪ The ITF Urban Mobility Model is a tool thatallows users to test various policy packages bybuilding scenarios and evaluating the efficiency
of different transport decarbonisation measuresin Tashkent.
▪ The model covers the official administrative
boundaries of Tashkent. It captures relationships
at the city level by the population category anddistance bin. The model analyses 14 modes,
covering the existing and potential future modes.
▪ It simulates the overall long-term evolution ofsocio-economic, land use and transportcharacteristics of Tashkent between 2015 and
2050, presenting the results with a five-year
step.
▪ Relationships between different inputs and submodels are shown on the diagram.

36

Tashkent’s urban mobility model
For more information related to
the Urban Mobility Model,
please consult/download themodel and supporting materials
from the ITF repository.

37

Download Study Materials

Download study materials▪ Tashkent’s Urban Mobility Improvement Plan
▪ Tashkent’s Urban Mobility Model▪ Modelling tool
▪ Model manual▪ Methodology note

▪ Brochure with project summary▪ Project web page with relevant information and events39

INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT FORUM
2 RUE ANDRÉ PASCAL
F-75775 PARIS CEDEX 16

PROJECT TEAM
Yaroslav KHOLODOV
Project Manager
Email: yaroslav.kholodov@itf-oecd.org
Mallory TROUVÉ
Urban Mobility Advisor
Xiaotong ZHANG
Data Analyst
Blaise ESTIENNE
Policy Analyst Intern
Guineng CHEN
SIPA Transport Programme Lead
Email: guineng.chen@itf-oecd.org