No. 36

Spring 2014
Contents

Page

Page

El Niño Outlook (April – October 2014)

1

JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Summer 2014

3

Warm Season Outlook for Summer 2014 in Japan

5

Summary of the 2013/2014 Asian Winter Monsoon

6

New provision of Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlooks

12

TCC Expert Participation in RCOFs

13

Launch of website for the Pilot Project on Information Sharing on Climate Services

13

El Niño Outlook (April – October 2014)
It is likely that El Niño conditions will develop during theNorthern Hemisphere summer.

ENSO-neutral conditions continued in the equatorial
Pacific.
According to JMA's El Niño prediction model, theNINO.3 SST will be above normal during the Northern
Hemisphere summer and beyond (Figure 4). It isconsidered that the eastward migration of warm waters as
observed throughout the equatorial Pacific will cause SST
anomalies to increase in its eastern part. In conclusion, theNINO.3 SST is likely to turn from near normal to above
normal in the months ahead, and it is likely that El Niño
conditions will develop during the Northern Hemispheresummer.

El Niño/La Niña
In March 2014, the NINO.3 SST was near normal witha deviation of -0.1°C, and SSTs (Figures 1 and 3 (a)) wereabove normal in the western equatorial Pacific. Subsurface
temperatures (Figures 2 and 3 (b)) were above normal inmost regions from the western to the eastern equatorial
Pacific, while zonal winds in the lower troposphere werenear normal over the central equatorial Pacific. Theseoceanic and atmospheric observations indicate that

(a)

(a)

(b)

(b)

Figure 1
Monthly mean (a) sea surface temperatures(SSTs) and (b) SST anomalies in the Indian and Pacific
Ocean areas for March 2014
The contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). The baseperiod for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

TCC News

Figure 2Monthly mean depth-longitude cross sectionsof (a) temperatures and (b) temperature anomalies in theequatorial Indian and Pacific Ocean areas for March 2014
The contour intervals are 1˚C in (a) and 0.5˚C in (b). The baseperiod for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

Western Pacific and Indian Ocean
The area-averaged SST for the tropical western Pacific(NINO.WEST) region was near normal in March, and islikely to be near normal in the Northern Hemispherespring and near or below normal in summer.
The area-averaged SST for the tropical Indian Ocean
basin-wide (IOBW) region was near normal in March, andis likely to be near normal in the Northern Hemispherespring and summer.

* The SST normal for NINO.3 region (5°S – 5°N, 150°W– 90°W) is defined as an monthly average over a sliding
30-year period (1984 – 2013 for this year).
* The SST normals for the NINO.WEST region (Eq. –15°N, 130°E – 150°E) and the IOBW region (20°S –20°N, 40°E – 100°E) are defined as linear extrapolations
with respect to a sliding 30-year period in order to remove
the effects of significant long-term warming trends
observed in these regions.

(Ichiro Ishikawa, Climate Prediction Division)

(b)

(a)

Figure 3
Time-longitude cross sections of (a) SST and (b) ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies along the equator in the
Indian and Pacific Ocean areas
OHCs are defined here as vertical averaged temperatures in the top 300 m. The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.

Figure 4
Outlook of NINO.3 SST deviation produced by the El Niño prediction modelThis figure shows a time series of monthly NINO.3 SST deviations. The thick line with closed circles shows observed SST deviations,and the boxes show the values produced for the next six months by the El Niño prediction model. Each box denotes the range into which
the SST deviation is expected to fall with a probability of 70%.

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for Boreal Summer 2014
Based on JMA’s seasonal ensemble prediction system,sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the easternequatorial Pacific Ocean will be above normal this boreal
summer, suggesting a very likely transition to El Niño
conditions. In line with this prediction, active convection
over the eastern part of the Pacific and a southward shift ofthe sub-tropical jet stream are expected. Conversely,inactive convection is predicted over the Maritime
Continent and the northern part of the Indian Ocean.

(a) RAIN

1. Introduction
This article outlines JMA’s dynamical seasonalensemble prediction for boreal summer 2014 (June –August, referred to as JJA), which was used as a basis for
the Agency’s operational warm-season outlook issued on
25 April 2014. The outlook detailed here is based on theseasonal ensemble prediction system of the Coupledatmosphere-ocean General Circulation Model (CGCM).
See the column below for system details.
Section 2 outlines global SST anomaly predictions, andSection 3 describes the associated circulation fields
expected over the tropics and sub-tropics. Finally, thecirculation fields predicted for the mid- and high latitudesof the Northern Hemisphere are discussed in Section 4.

(b) CHI200(c) PSI200

2. SST anomalies (Figure 5)
Figure 5 shows predicted SSTs and related anomalies
for JJA. Anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean
are above normal throughout the period, suggesting a very
likely transition to El Niño conditions. Conversely, SST
anomalies are slightly below normal around thePhilippines. They are also expected to be near normal in
the northern part of the Indian Ocean but slightly above
normal in its southern part.

(d) PSI850

3. Prediction for the tropics and sub-tropics (Figure 6)
Figure 6 (a) shows predicted precipitation and related
anomalies for JJA. In association with the expected El
Niño conditions, precipitation amounts around the central
equatorial Pacific Ocean are expected to be above normal.
Conversely, those around the Maritime Continent and thenorthern part of the Indian Ocean are expected to be
below normal.

Figure 6 Predicted atmospheric fields from 60°N – 60°S
for June – August 2014 (ensemble mean of 51 members)(a) Precipitation (contours) and anomaly (shading). The
contour interval is 2 mm/day.
(b) Velocity potential at 200 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 2 × 106 m2/s.
(c) Stream function at 200 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 16 × 106 m2/s.
(d) Stream function at 850 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 5 × 106 m2/s.

Figure 5 Predicted SSTs (contours) and SST anomalies(shading) for June – August 2014 (ensemble mean of 51
members)

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

Velocity potential in the upper troposphere (200 hPa)
(Figure 6 (b)) is expected to be negative (i.e., moredivergent) over the eastern part of the Pacific, reflecting
active convection over the central equatorial part of the
Pacific Ocean. Conversely, positive (i.e., moreconvergent) anomalies are expected around the Maritime
Continent and the northern part of the Indian Ocean,reflecting inactive convection in these regions.
The stream function at 200 hPa (Figure 6 (c)) is
expected to be zonally negative (i.e., cyclonic) in the midand high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, indicatinga southward-shifting tendency for the subtropical jet
stream. Positive (i.e., anti-cyclonic) anomalies are
expected to the east of the Philippines, reflecting
above-normal precipitation in the region.
The stream function at 850 hPa (Figure 6 (d)) is
expected to exhibit negative (i.e., cyclonic) anomalies tothe east of the Philippines, suggesting development of themonsoon trough in the region.

(a) Z500(b) SLP

4. Prediction for the mid- and high latitudes of theNorthern Hemisphere (Figure 7)
Geo-potential height anomalies at 500 hPa (Figure 7(a)) are expected to be positive over most of the Northern
Hemisphere, reflecting the influence of the recent
warming trend. However, the North Pacific is expected to
exhibit clear negative anomalies, which may be related tothe southward-shifting tendency of the subtropical jet
stream.
Negative anomalies of sea level pressure (Figure 7 (b))
are expected in most regions of the North Pacific,
suggesting a diminished North Pacific High.
Figures 7 Predicted atmospheric fields from 20°N – 90°N
for June – August 2014 (ensemble mean of 51 members)(a) Geopotential height at 500 hPa (contours) and anomaly(shading). The contour interval is 60 m.
(b) Sea level pressure (contours) and anomaly (shading). The
contour interval is 4 hPa.

(Takashi Yamada, Climate Prediction Division)

JMA’s Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System
JMA operates a seasonal Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) using the Coupled atmosphere-ocean
General Circulation Model (CGCM) to make seasonal predictions beyond a one-month time range.
The EPS produces perturbed initial conditions by means of a combination of the initial
perturbation method and the lagged average forecasting (LAF) method. The prediction is madeusing 51 members from the latest six initial dates (nine members are run every five days). Detailsof the prediction system and verification maps based on 30-year hindcast experiments (1979 –
2008) are available at http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/.

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

Warm Season Outlook for Summer 2014 in Japan
In summer 2014, mean temperatures are expected tobe either near or below normal (both with 40%
probability) in northern Japan and either near or above
normal (both with 40% probability) in western Japan andOkinawa/Amami. Total summer precipitation amounts
are expected to be either near or above normal (bothwith 40% probability) in northern Japan, and either nearor below normal (both with 40% probability) in westernJapan.
1. Outlook summary
JMA issued its outlook for the coming summer overJapan in February and updated it in March and April.
In summer (June – August) 2014, mean temperatures
are expected to be either near or below normal (bothwith 40% probability) in northern Japan, and either
near or above normal (both with 40% probability) inwestern Japan and Okinawa/Amami. Summer total
precipitation amounts are expected to be either near or
above normal (both with 40% probability) in northern
Japan, and either near or below normal (both with 40%
probability) in western Japan (Figure 8). Rainy season(Baiu) precipitation amounts are unlikely to exhibit
particular characteristics in any region.
2. Outlook background
JMA’s coupled global circulation model predicts that
the NINO.3 SST will transition from near to above
normal in summer. In conclusion, although thecontinuation of ENSO-neutral conditions may bepossible considering the large uncertainties of themodel’s prediction, it is more likely that El Niño
conditions will develop.
In association with these SST anomalies,
atmospheric convection is predicted to be more active
than normal over the central and eastern tropical
Pacific and less active than normal from the eastern
Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent.
In
connection with this relatively inactive convection, theTibetan High is predicted to be weaker than normal.
The subtropical jet, which flows along the northernedge of the Tibetan High, is likely to shift southwardfrom its normal position. Meanwhile, convection ispredicted to be more active than normal around thePhilippines in relation to inactive convection occurringfrom the eastern Indian Ocean to the Maritime
Continent. As a result, the North Pacific high is
expected to be weaker than normal over northern Japanand stronger than normal over western Japan andOkinawa/Amami.
The tropospheric thickness temperature averaged
over the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere(30°N – 50°N), which correlates to temperatures overJapan, is predicted to be around normal.

Temperature
Tercile Probability (%)
Below- ; Normal ; Abovenormal
normalFigure 8
Chronology of observational data types
assimilated in JRA-55

Precipitation
Tercile Probability (%)
Below- ; Normal ; Abovenormal
normalFigure 8 Outlook for summer 2014 temperature (above) and
precipitation (below) probabilities in Japan(Masayuki Hirai, Climate Prediction Division)

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

Summary of the 2013/2014 Asian Winter Monsoon
This report summarizes the characteristics of the surface
climate and atmospheric/oceanographic considerations
related to the Asian winter monsoon for 2013/2014.
Note:
Japanese
55-yearReanalysis(JRA-55;
http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html) atmosphericcirculation data and COBE-SST (JMA 2006) sea surface
temperature (SST) data were used for this investigation.
The outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data referenced toinfer tropical convective activity were originally provided
by NOAA. The base period for the normal is 1981 – 2010.
The term “anomaly” as used in this report refers todeviation from the normal.
1. Surface climate conditions
1.1 Overview of Asia
In boreal winter 2013/2014, temperatures were aboveor near normal in many parts of East Asia and in eastern
Siberia, and were below normal in many parts of South,
Southeast and Central Asia (Figure 9). Very high or low
temperatures were recorded on a regional scale in
December, January and February, but were not seen on
this scale in the three-month mean field.
Figure 10 shows extreme climate events observed

from December 2013 to February 2014. In December,extremely high temperatures were observed in Mongolia
and Siberia, and extremely low temperatures wererecorded on the Indochina Peninsula and in southern
China. Extremely heavy precipitation amounts wereobserved over parts of Southeast Asia. In January,
extremely high temperatures were seen in Mongolia andin northern and eastern China, while extremely low
temperatures were seen around the South China Sea. In
February, extremely low temperatures were observed inCentral Asia and the eastern Middle East. Extremely
heavy precipitation amounts were observed in parts ofJapan, and extremely light precipitation amounts wereseen in parts of Indonesia and on the Malay Peninsula.
Figure 11 shows time-series representations of daily
temperatures at Bangkok in Thailand and Astana in
Kazakhstan for winter 2013/2014. Daily mean
temperatures were below normal in the second halves ofDecember and January and near normal for other parts ofwinter at Bangkok. Daily mean temperatures were above
normal on many days in December and below normal on
most days from the second half of January to the end of
February at Astana.

Figure 9 Monthly mean temperature anomalies for (a) December 2013, (b) January 2014 and (c) February 2014, and (d)three-month mean temperature anomalies for December 2013 – February 2014
Categories are defined by the monthly/three-month mean temperature anomaly against the normal divided by its standard deviation
and averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of each category are -1.28, -0.44, 0, +0.44 and +1.28. Standard deviations were
calculated from 1981 – 2010 statistics. Areas over land without graphical marks are those where observation data are insufficient or
where normal data are unavailable. In (d), the orange stars indicate the locations of Bangkok (Thailand) and Astana (Kazakhstan).
Daily temperature data for both cities are shown in Figure 11.

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

Figure 10 Extreme climate events for (a) December 2013, (b) January 2014 and (c) February 2014
△ Extremely high temperature (ΔT/SD > 1.83)□ Extremely heavy precipitation (Rd = 6)
▽ Extremely low temperature (ΔT/SD < -1.83)
× Extremely light precipitation (Rd = 0)
ΔT, SD and Rd indicate temperature anomaly, standard deviation and quintile, respectively.

Figure 11 Time-series representation of daily maximum, mean and minimum temperatures (°C) at Bangkok in Thailand andAstana in Kazakhstan from 1 December 2013 to 28 February 2014 (based on SYNOP reports)

1.2 Heavy snowfall over northern and eastern Japanin February 2014
The Pacific side of northern and eastern Japan
experienced two heavy snowfall events in February
2014. The one that occurred in mid-February had adevastating impact on socio-economic activities.
A developing low-pressure system forming on 13
February moved northeastward to the south of mainland
Japan and reached the eastern part of northern Japan on
16 February. In association with this system, snow fellover a wide area mainly on the Pacific side from western
to northern Japan. Some parts of the north’s Tohoku
region and the east’s Kanto/Koshin region experienced

Table 1
Station name (prefecture)

record-breaking snowfall from 14 to 15 February.
Northern Japan was also hit by heavy snowfall andsevere snowstorms from 15 to 19 February.
New records for maximum snow depth were set at 18
stations in northern Japan and in the Kanto/Koshin
region (for stations with statistics spanning a period ofover 10 years) (Table 1 and Figure 12). In Tokyo, themaximum snow depth of 27 cm was the joint eighth
highest since 1875. According to the Cabinet Office, theevent in mid-February claimed 26 lives across thecountry and had a heavy socio-economic impact.

Selected stations observing record snow depths on 15 February 2014
Maximum snow depth

Previous record (year)

Data since

Shirakawa (Fukushima)

76 cm

74 cm (1946)

1940

Utsunomiya (Tochigi)

32 cm

30 cm (1945)

1890

Maebashi (Gunma)

73 cm

37 cm (1945)

1896

Kumagaya (Saitama)

62 cm

45 cm (1936)

1896

Kofu (Yamanashi)

114 cm49 cm (1998)

1894

Karuizawa (Nagano)

99 cm

72 cm (1998)

1925

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Figure 12 Maximum snow depths (cm) at selected stations in the Kanto/Koshin region
The values on the left and right indicate maximum snow depths recorded on 15 February 2014 (except Chiba, Tsukuba and Mito, whose
data are from 9 February) and record-high snow depths, respectively. Values in red denote new records.

2. Characteristic atmosphericoceanographic conditions

circulation

and

2.1 Overview of the tropics and Southeast Asia
In winter 2013/2014, sea surface temperatures (SSTs)
were above normal in the western equatorial Pacific andbelow normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific(Figure 13). SST anomalies indicated warm conditions in
the South Indian Ocean and cold conditions in the North
Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Active convection

areas compared to the normal gradually moved eastward
from the Indian Ocean in December to the dateline
region in February (Figure 14 (b)). In the westernequatorial Pacific, significant westerly wind anomalies(westerly wind burst events) were seen in the second halfof January and the period from the second half of
February to early March (Figure 14 (c)). This activity
during the latter period was associated with the
Madden-Julian Oscillation (Figure 14 (a)).

Figure 13 Three-month mean sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies for December 2013 – February 2014
The contour interval is 0.5˚C.

Figure 14
Time-longitude cross section of seven-day running mean (a) 200-hPa velocity potential anomalies, (b) outgoing
longwave radiation (OLR) anomalies, and (c) 850-hPa zonal wind anomalies around the equator (5°S – 5°N) from mid-October
2013 to mid-April 2014(a) The contour interval is 3 × 106 m2/s. The blue and red shading indicates areas of divergence and convergence anomalies, respectively.
(b) The blue and red shading indicates areas of enhanced and suppressed convective activity, respectively. (c) The contour interval is 2
m/s. The blue and red shading shows easterly and westerly wind anomalies, respectively.

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

In December 2013, large-scale divergence anomalies
in the upper troposphere over the Indian Ocean and the
Maritime Continent (Figure 15 (a)) indicated enhanced
convective activity that contributed to heavy rainfall overparts of the Maritime Continent. Upper-level large-scaleconvergence anomalies were seen over the dateline
region, indicating suppressed convective activity there. In
the 850-hPa stream function field, cyclonic andanti-cyclonic circulation anomalies straddling the equator
were observed over the Indian Ocean and the western
Pacific, respectively (Figure 16 (a)), in association withthe anomalous convective activity seen over the Indian
Ocean and the Pacific.
In January 2014, large-scale divergence anomalies in
the upper troposphere were seen over the eastern Maritime
Continent and the western Pacific (Figure 15 (b)). In thelower troposphere, a pair of cyclonic circulation
anomalies was centered near the Philippines and thenorthern coast of Australia, with northerly wind anomalies
around the South China Sea and strong westerly wind
anomalies over the western equatorial Pacific (Figure 16(b)). The results of linear baroclinic model experiments

forced with convective heating and cooling anomalies
over the tropics show such lower-level circulation
anomaly patterns and below-normal temperatures aroundthe South China Sea (Figure 17). It can therefore be
presumed that anomalous convective activity in thetropics contributed to stronger-than-normal northerly
winds and extremely low temperatures over the Indochina
Peninsula and the Philippines.
In February 2014, large-scale divergence anomalies in
the upper troposphere were seen over the western Pacificand the dateline region, and convergence anomalies wereobserved over the Maritime Continent (Figure 15 (c)),
contributing to dry conditions in parts of Indonesia and on
the Malay Peninsula. In the lower troposphere, a pair ofcyclonic circulation anomalies was seen over the western
Pacific with strong westerly wind anomalies over its
equatorial area (Figure 17). Such anomaly patterns weredisplaced eastward of those observed in January.

Figure 15
Monthly mean 200-hPa velocity potential for (a)December 2013, (b) January 2014 and (c) February 2014
The contours indicate velocity potential at intervals of 2 × 10 6 m2/s,
and the shading shows velocity potential anomalies. D and C
indicate the bottom and peak of velocity potential corresponding to
the centers of large-scale divergence and convergence, respectively.

Figure 16
Monthly mean 850-hPa stream function anomalies and wind vector anomalies for (a) December 2013, (b) January
2014 and (c) February 2014
The contours indicate stream function anomalies at intervals of 2 × 106 m2/s, and vectors show wind vector anomalies. H and L indicate
the centers of anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation anomalies, respectively.

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

Figure 17
Steady response to heating anomalies in the tropics for January 2014 in a linear baroclinic model (LBM)(a) The red and blue shading indicates diabatic heating and cooling, respectively, for the LBM with the basic state for January (i.e., the1981 – 2010 average). (b) The shading denotes the steady response of 850-hPa stream function anomalies (m2/s). (c) The shading shows
the steady response of 850-hPa temperature anomalies (°C). These anomalies as responses represent deviations from the basic states, andare additionally subtracted from the zonal averages of the anomalies.

2.2 Overview of the Northern Hemisphere and East Asia
In winter 2013/2014, the polar vortex tended to be
shifted toward Canada in the 500-hPa height field, anddistinct troughs persisted over the central-eastern part ofNorth America (Figure 18). In association, Arctic cold air
frequently flowed over a large area of North America andcaused cold conditions there, especially over the Midwest
area of the USA (Figure 19). Strong low-pressure systems
centered to the northwest of the UK persisted during thewinter (Figure 20), contributing to significantly
above-normal rainfall in the country. The intensity of theSiberian High varied significantly with a period of
approximately 30 days (Figure 21 (a)), and its winteraverage showed normal intensity (Figure 21 (b)).
In December 2013, blocking ridges were seen over
Siberia (Figure 18 (a)), contributing to extremely warm
conditions there (Figure 10 (a)). In January 2014, the polar

vortex was split into two in association with thedevelopment of ridges seen over the Arctic Ocean, and oneof the two vortices with arctic cold air was displaced over
Siberia (Figure 18 (b)), contributing to below-normal
temperatures in the region (Figure 9 (b)). Zonally elongatedpositive anomalies were seen over East Asia, indicating thatthe polar-front jet stream exhibited no tendency to meander
southward over the region compared to the normal. In
association, China and Mongolia experienced extremely
warm conditions (Figure 10 (b)). In February 2014, thepolar vortex was split into two and displaced toward
Canada and central Siberia, and blocking ridges developed
over eastern Siberia and northwestern Russia (Figure 18(c)). In association, temperatures were above normal ineastern Siberia and below normal in its western and central
parts (Figure 19 (c)).

Figure 18 Monthly mean 500-hPa height for (a) December 2013, (b) January 2014
and (c) February 2014, and (d) three-month mean 500-hPa height for December 2013
– February 2014
The contours indicate 500-hPa height at intervals of 60 m, and the shading shows related
anomalies. H and L indicate the peak and bottom of 500-hPa height, respectively, and +(plus) and – (minus) show the peak and bottom of related anomalies, respectively.

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

Figure 19 Monthly mean 850-hPa temperature for (a) December 2013, (b) January
2014 and (c) February 2014, and (d) three-month mean 850-hPa temperature for
December 2013 – February 2014
The contours indicate 850-hPa temperature at intervals of 4°C, and the shading shows
related anomalies. W and C indicate the centers of warm and cold air masses, respectively,
and + (plus) and – (minus) show the peak and bottom of 850-hPa temperature anomalies,
respectively.

Figure 20 Monthly sea level pressure for (a) December 2013, (b) January 2014 and(c) February 2014, and (d) three-month mean sea level pressure for December 2013 –February 2014
The contours indicate sea level pressure at intervals of 4 hPa, and the shading shows related
anomalies. H and L indicate the centers of high- and low-pressure systems, respectively,
and + (plus) and – (minus) show the peak and bottom of sea level pressure anomalies,
respectively.

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

Figure 21 (a) Intraseasonal and (b) interannual variations of area-averaged sea level pressure anomalies around the center of theSiberian High (40°N – 60°N, 80°E – 120°E) for winter(a) The black line indicates five-day running mean values for the period from 20 November 2013 to 10 March 2014. (b) The black line
indicates three-month mean values for December-January-February from 1958/1959 to 2013/2014.

3. Summary
Extreme climate events were seen for relatively shortperiods in parts of Asia in winter 2013/2014, but none
persisted widely.
(1. Ayako Takeuchi 2-3. Shotaro Tanaka,
Tokyo Climate Center)

Reference
JMA, 2006: Characteristics of Global Sea Surface
Temperature Data (COBE-SST), Monthly Report on
Climate System, Separated Volume No. 12.

New provision of Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlooks
In its role as a WMO Regional Climate Center, theTokyo Climate Center (TCC) provides support materials
and arranges capacity development activities for National
Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in
the Asia-Pacific region to assist with their climate
services, and also works to improve and develop products
based on advice and requests from NMHSs (Figure 22).
On 25 March 2014, a new product called Monthly
Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlooks was launched
via
the
TCC
website(http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/index.html). Its content is intended to assist Asia-Pacific NMHSs ininterpreting and assessing the products of GPC Tokyo (aFigure 22

TCC News

Global Producing Center of Long-range Forecasts) for
three-month predictions
andwarm/coldseasonforecasting. It is also designed to help NMHSs understandthe current conditions of the climate system, and consistsof chapters titled Summary and Discussion, Latest State of
the Climate System, Three-month Predictions, Warm/Cold
Season Predictions (issued in February/September), andExplanatory Notes. The product is updated around the25th of every month. TCC welcomes comments andrequests from NMHSs toward the Monthly Discussion’s
further improvement for use in their seasonal outlook
production work.
(Shotaro Tanaka, Tokyo Climate Center)

Support-feedback cycle involving TCC materials and NMHS seasonal outlook production

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No. 36 | Spring 2014

TCC expert participation in RCOFs
WMO Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs)
bring together national, regional and international climate
experts on an operational basis to produce regional
climate outlooks based on input from participating
NMHSs, regional institutions, Regional Climate Centersand global producers of climate predictions. By providing
a platform for countries with similar climatologicalcharacteristics to discuss related matters, these forums
ensure consistency in terms of access to and interpretationof climate information.
In April 2014, TCC experts participated in two RCOFs.

These were the tenth session of the Forum on Regional
Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for
Regional Association II (FOCRAII) held in Beijing,
China, from 23 to 25 April, and the fifth session of theSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) held in
Pune, India, from 22 to 23 April. At both events, the TCC
attendees gave presentations on seasonal predictions basedon JMA’s numerical model and participated in discussions
to produce consensus forecasts.
(Ryuji Yamada, Tokyo Climate Center)

Launch of website for the Pilot Project on Information Sharing on
Climate Services
The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) is
one of WMO’s current top-five priorities. For its
successful implementation, it is important to share goodpractices and lessons learned, including information on
experienced project management capabilities, toward thedevelopment of projects and the improvement of climate
services run by NMHSs. There is also a need to avoid
duplication of work and minimize the risk of failure.
At its 15th session (December 2012, Doha, Qatar),
WMO Regional Association II decided to establish a pilot
project for the sharing of information on climate services.
The initiative is intended to support such sharing and thetransfer of information on best practices regarding climate
information among NMHSs in the region through a
dedicated website toward the successful implementationof GFCS work.

In its designated lead role on the project, the Tokyo
Climate Center (TCC) developed and distributed a projectquestionnaire to nominated focal points in order to collectrelevant information. Based on the responses, staff fromthe Center worked on the development of a portal site thatwas launched in March 2014 on the TCC website at
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/pilot/. The portal featuresindividual RA II Member web pages, and each page has
links to climate information, data and products (including
long-range forecasting and climate monitoring) provided
by the NMHSs concerned. TCC will continue to collectpertinent information from NMHSs to be shared withMembers. The website is expected to support theconsideration of future work to facilitate the utilization ofclimate information.
(Ryuji Yamada, Tokyo Climate Center)

Any comments or inquiry on this newsletter and/or the TCC
website would be much appreciated. Please e-mail to
tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.
(Editors: Teruko Manabe, Ryuji Yamada and Yasushi Mochizuki)

TCC News

Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Japan Meteorological Agency
Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
TCC Website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html

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No. 36 | Spring 2014