OPERATIONAL RISKMANAGEMENT
C.R. (RICK) GRANTOM P.E.
NRRC Workshop on

Risk-Informed Decision Making: A Survey of U.S. Experience
Tokyo, Japan, June 1-2, 2017

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPIThe B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

Operational Risk Management Overview
Presentation - 50 min
Q&A - 20 min
Summary of:• Section 3.5: Component Risk Significance and Notification;• Section 3.7: Utilizing Insights from Operating Experience;• Section 3.8: Risk Information and Insights in Operational Decision Making;• Section 3.14: Risk Monitoring to Integrate Risk Thinking into Daily Plant
Status.

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

2The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

Application Strategies for Risk Management
Tactical (used frequently) Risk Management Approaches• Configuration Risk Daily, Weekly, Outage (Shutdown Risk)• Equipment Importance (Risk Significance)• Prioritization of activities• Risk Monitoring• Testing & Maintenance Strategies• Risk Communication

Strategic Risk Management Approaches• Emergency Response Strategies• Equipment Reliability trends• Modification Risk Evaluations• Aging management• Risk Communication

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

3The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

Risk Management Approaches
QuantitativeQualitative
Blended (Quantitative AND Qualitative)• Typically uses Integrated Decision-Making Panel (IDP)

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

4The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

Timeframes for Assessing Risk Levels & Trends
Daily Risk Evaluations – Equipment out-of-service, work activity risk
Weekly Risk Evaluation – Cumulative Risk of Equipment out of service
Monthly Risk Evaluation – Equipment Reliability/Availability Levels
Yearly – Annual risk goal, Annual Equipment Goals
Refueling (Outage risk, Outage configuration risk)
Infrequent - Infrequently performed evolutions (e.g., Heavy Loads, )Long Range (yearly, Five-Year) – Modification evaluations,Time Independent - Program Level ( e.g., RI-ISI, Component Risk
Significance Categorization)
Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

5The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLAProcess, Procedures, TrainingGoverning Processes for implementing Company Risk Management
Strategy, Risk Informed Applications and Use of Risk Information inCompany/Plant Processes
Manuals, Procedures and Guidance Documents are required todefine expectations, requirements, responsibilities, required action
criteria, acceptance criteria, documentation, etc.
Corporate and Sitewide Training• Company Risk Management Strategy (Management, Supervisory, Individual)• Risk Management Applications (Affected Organizations)• Quantitative Tools (PRA, others)• Integrated Decision Making Panel
Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

6The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

Risk Communication Plan
Essential for a successful program
Communication plan to include internal and external elements
Plan should include strategies for effectively communicating to all
employees and contract organization employees:• Corporate and Station specific risk objectives and goals• Relationship of risk and safety (Safety ≠ Compliance Alone)• Training that is or will be available for target audiences• Identify organization specific role and contribution to risk
• Importance of data to support continuous improvement in risk knowledge andawareness• Use all communication mechanisms (posters, company newsletters, computer based
training, classroom training, management videos,
Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

7The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLARisk Insights and Operating Experience
Risk Insights

Operational Insights

Manuals, Procedures,Guidelines

Risk & PRA Insights

Operational Insights

Activities

Dominant Accident
Sequences

Work Control

Planning & Scheduling

Dominant Initiating
EventsTraining (Operations,Engineering, Contractors)

Operational Decision
MakingComponent Risk
SignificanceEmergency Response
Drill Scenarios

Outage Decision
Making

Key Component &Human Failure Modes

Equipment
Prioritization

Industry Operating
Event SignificanceEquipment Reliability
Strategies

Precursor Analysis

Testing & Maintenance
Strategies

Equipment Reliability
TrendsInvestment Portfolio
Management

Risk Informed
Performance Indicators.
.
.

Risk Informed
Engineering.
.
.

C SIo a mn f p
t e rin y v

Quality Assurance &Auditing
Risk of Plant Activities

ueomuesnt

Maintenance &Reliability Evaluationss

Modification
Evaluations
Management
Challenge Boards
.
.
.

t o8

White Paper Examples
NRRC Workshop on

Risk-Informed Decision Making: A Survey of U.S. Experience
Tokyo, Japan, June 1-2, 2017

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPIThe B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLAComponent Risk Significance Categorization

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

10The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLAComponent Risk Significance Categorization

Categorization Process
NRRC Workshop on

Risk-Informed Decision Making: A Survey of U.S. Experience
Tokyo, Japan, June 1-2, 2017

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPIThe B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

NEI 00-04 Risk Significance Process

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

12The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLANRRC Workshop on

Risk-Informed Decision Making: A Survey of U.S. Experience
Tokyo, Japan, June 1-2, 2017

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPIThe B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA14

15

16

17

18

Establishing Technical
Operational Risk Management
NRRC Workshop on

Risk-Informed Decision Making: A Survey of U.S. Experience
Tokyo, Japan, June 1-2, 2017

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPIThe B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

Essential Elements for Incorporating Risk Insights
into Operations
A company risk management and PRA policy that establishing thecompany’s commitment to developing and using risk analysis andmanagement for improving safety and continuous improvement
A PRA that reflects the as-built, as-operated station
A process where PRA data and information is categorized and linked tocompany processes that impact the same PRA data and information
Empowered and knowledgeable individuals who have responsibility for
identifying and implementing risk insights into company processes
Direct management involvement to define and monitor expectations
Continuous site presence of knowledgeable risk practitioners
Use of experienced and knowledgeable experts to guide and teach
Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

20The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLASummary
Incorporating risk insights into Operational Risk Management is a process
requiring documented and communicated expectations, goals, objectives
and assigned ownerships
Requires a total company commitment
Must be part of the company mission
Must have a commitment to continuous learningMust have a communication plan that encompasses risk insights, risk
understanding, training, and risk measurement
All the above is reflected in plant procedures, processes, and guidelinesthat are required to be adhered to by all employees and contractorganization employees
Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

21

The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

BACKUP Slides
NRRC Workshop on

Risk-Informed Decision Making: A Survey of U.S. Experience
Tokyo, Japan, June 1-2, 2017

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPIThe B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLAExample Risk Informed Performance
Indicator - STP Risk Index

23

Risk Index Overview
The STP Risk Index is the top-tier measure of nuclear safety performance.

• The Risk Index is the ratio of actual risk to expected (average) risk
• Since PRAs are typically calculated in terms of annual risk (i.e., CDF), the STP PRA calculates risk in terms ofweekly planned and actual risk
• The Risk Index is a rolling 52-week average of the “actual” configuration risk as opposed to average annualrisk.

The Risk Index value is calculated for both On-Line and Outage conditions:• For On-Line Configuration Risk, the Risk Index is the ratio of the actual configuration risk as calculated by therisk monitoring software to the expected average annual risk
• For Outage Configuration Risk, the Risk Index is the ratio of actual Outage Configuration Risk to the estimatedOutage Configuration Risk as measured by the shutdown risk monitoring software

The Risk Index is calculated for each Work Week:• Starts 00:00 Monday• Ends 00:00 the following Monday.

The average of Unit 1 and Unit 2 Risk Index values is the used for the performance indicator.
The Risk Index provides a display of the change in risk of equipment in or out of service andreflects the total organizational effort of plant processes, activities, interactions, and behaviors
related to equipment reliability and availability for equipment within the scope of theconfiguration risk management program (i.e., equipment within the scope of the PRA)
Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

24

The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

Historical Performance, Unit 1
1.20

Risk Index

1.00
0.95

0.80

`

0.60

0.40

0.20

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

25

The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

Jan-97
May-97
Sep-97
Jan-98May-98
Sep-98Jan-99May-99
Sep-99
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02Jan-03May-03
Sep-03Jan-04
May-04
Sep-04Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08May-08
Sep-08Jan-09
May-09Sep-09Jan-10

Risk Index

Historical Performance, Unit 2
Unit 2 Rolling 52-Week RI

1.60

1.40

1.20
1.11

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00

week of

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI
26

The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

On-Line Risk Index Calculation
RAsCal On-Line risk
For each work week, for each STP Unit On-Line, the RAsCal Weekly Risk Index, RUW , is calculated from the following:
RUW = AUW(ICDPWU+ ZCDP WCA).

Where:
Usubscript refers to STP Unit (1 or 2)

W

arbitrary sequential superscript referring to the Work Week, sequential from first record (i.e., first week calculated).

AUW

is the applicable Unit’s fraction of time the reactor is critical during the work week.

ICDPUWCA•••

is the cumulative Incremental Core Damage Probability from RAsCal for the applicable work week (from midnight
Sunday to midnight Sunday) for the applicable Unit.

is the plant specific STP PRA Average annual CDF (C) corrected for:a week duration anda full year’s plant availability

where:
 168  1 
C A = C  and f is availability assumed in the PRA average model.
 8760  f Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

27

The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

On-Line Risk Index Calculation
Note that the Average annual CDF ( C A ) applies to both STP Units (there is no difference between the Average CDF for Unit 1 orUnit 2).
ZCDP Wis the zero maintenance CDF (ZCDF) (i.e., planned maintenance contribution removed), corrected for a work week.

Also, like the Average Risk ( C A ), the zero maintenance risk is the same value for both STP Units: 168 ZCDP W = ZCDF .
 8760 

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

28

The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA

Outage Risk Index Calculation
Outage risk
ORAM UW is the actual outage risk index (Actual Shutdown Risk/Planned Shutdown Risk): where
ORAM Uw =()AORAM UW
1 − AUW ,W
PORAM UWhere:•AORAM is actual outage risk from ORAM as supplied by the Risk Analyst (ENTRY FORM 1) and•
PORAM UW is the planned outage risk from ORAM as supplied by the Risk Analyst (ENTRY FORM 1).
Weekly Total Risk
The weekly total risk index ( I UW ) for weeks during which the applicable plant is not defueled (i.e. Plant is in either MODE 1, 2, 3, 4,5, or 6) is given by the following:[()]

I UW = AUW RUW + 1 − AUW ORAM UW .

Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI

29The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk SciencesUCLAFinal Risk Index Calculation
Risk Index
For each Unit, the 52-week rolling average of the weekly total risk, I UW , excluding defuel windows (as applicable, Exclude DefuelWindow = Y) is determined. The Risk Index is then the average of the two Unit’s rolling average Risk Index:
I =I 1W + I 2W
2Nuclear Risk Research Center, CRIEPI30

The B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences

UCLA