October 2005

No.2
Contents
JMA’s Cold Season Outlook for 2005/2006 winter in Japan
El Niño Outlook (October 2005 - April 2006)

1
1

JMA’s Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for 2005/2006 win-

2

The status of Japanese 25-year reanalysis project and usage

4

Summary of Asian Summer Monsoon 2005

5

Projected change of Asian summer monsoon:
a report on a global warming experiment by an atmospheric generalcirculation model with a 20-km grid

8

J M A ’ s C o l d S e a s o n O u t l o o k f o r 2 0 0 5 / 2 0 0 6 w i n t e r i n Ja p a n
For 2005/2006 winter in Japan, winter mean temperature
would be above/near normal in its eastern and western parts,
above normal in its southwestern part, and normal in its northern part. The outlook is mainly based on the reasons that during
this winter it is unlikely for El Niño or La Niña to develop, likely
for above-normal tropospheric air temperature in the midlatitudes to persist, and likely for the Arctic Oscillation (AO) tobe negative according to its decadal oscillation.

mal, especially in Nansei Islands, southwestern Japan,
where they clearly tend to be warmer than normal. However, in the northern part of Japan, large fluctuations of temperature were observed during last 5 years. The snowfall
amounts in recent 10 years were near or below normal allover Japan.
The thickness temperature between 300hPa and 850hPa
averaged over the mid-latitudes (30°N-50°N) is positively
correlated with the temperatures in Japan. It generally continues to be above normal since 2003, and the situation is
likely to persist during this winter. The winter mean AO
index (when it's positive, the 500hPa height anomalies are
below normal in the arctic area and above normal in the
mid-latitudes) tends to be negative since the latter half of1990's. This suggests the polar air mass is likely to flow out
over the North Pacific, which might occasionally cause cold
winters in the northern part of Japan.
The sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial
Pacific were generally above normal in August 2005. However, the SST anomaly in NINO.3 region became smaller inthe last ten days of August and is likely to be near normal inthis autumn. It is unlikely that El Nino or La Niña will develop during this winter. So, the effect of El Niño or La
Niña is not taken into account.
As for the ensemble prediction, please refer to “JMA’s
Seasonal Numerical Ensemble Prediction for 2005/2006
winter” in this News.

1. Outline of the outlook
JMA issued the Cold Season Outlook for 2005/2006
winter in Japan on 22 September 2005.
In the Northern Japan, winter weather is likely to be normal, featuring that the winter monsoon cold surges occur
periodically and snowy days are dominant in its Japan Sea
side. In the other regions, cold surges are not expected tooccur so much as in a normal year and warm days are expected more frequently than normal. Wetter-than-normal
weather is expected in Western Japan and the Pacific side of
Eastern Japan due to frequent cyclone passage.
Probabilistic forecasts of winter mean temperatures,
winter precipitation amounts, and snowfall amounts for the
primary forecast regions of Japan are available at the following URL.
Cold Season Outlook in Japan:
http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/outlooks/outlook3c.html
2. Reasons for the outlook
The climatic trends in recent 10 years show that the winter mean temperatures in Japan are almost above/near nor-

(Shunji Takahashi, Climate Prediction Division)

El Niño Outlook (October 2005 - April 2006)
The Region B (Niño 3) SST is likely to be near normal during
this autumn and winter. Also, it is unlikely that El Niño or La
Niña will develop during the prediction period.

tion from the 1961-1990 mean for Region B decreased from
+0.5°C for August to -0.2°C for September. Also, in thesubsurface ocean, negative temperature anomalies dominated in the eastern equatorial Pacific (Figure 1b).
These oceanic changes during September are considered
to be due to the enhancement of the Trade Winds over theequatorial Pacific in the first half of September (Figure 1c).

In September 2005, negative SST anomalies developedin the eastern equatorial Pacific, while positive SST anomalies persisted in the central part (Figure 1a). The SST devia-

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No.2 | October 2005

The easterly wind anomalies, however, were replaced byweak westerly wind anomalies in the second half of themonth. In the subsurface ocean, eastward propagation ofboth positive temperature anomalies in the west and negative ones in the east is recognized. However, it is considered that the magnitudes of these anomalies are not large
enough to result in significant change of the Region B SST
deviation in the next few months. Current atmospheric andoceanic conditions in the equatorial Pacific are almost nearnormal, and there is no indication toward El Niño or La

Niña at present.
The JMA's El Niño forecast model predicts that the Region B SST will be near normal during this autumn and winter (Figure 2).
Judging from all the above, the Region B SST is likely
to be near normal during this autumn and winter. At present, it is unlikely that El Niño or La Niña will develop during the prediction period.
(Takafumi Umeda, Climate Prediction Division)

(b)

(a)

(c)

Figure 1 Time-longitude cross sections along the equator in the Pacific Ocean(a) SST anomalies,(b) Ocean Heat Content (OHC; vertically averaged temperature in the top 260 m) anomalies, and(c) zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa.
Warm-color (cold-color) shading indicates positive (negative) anomalies.

Figure 2 Outlook of the SST deviation for Region B (Niño.3) by
the El Niño forecast modelThis figure indicates a time series of the monthly sea surface temperature (SST) deviation for Region B (4°N-4°S, 150°W-90°W). Thickline with closed circles shows the observed SST deviations and boxes
show the predicted one for the next seven months by the El Niño forecast model. Each box denotes the range where the SST deviation is
expected with the probability of 70%.

J M A ’ s S e a s o n a l N u m e r i c a l E n s e m bl e P re d i c t i o n f o r
2005/2006 winter
The JMA’s seasonal numerical ensemble prediction showsthat 500hPa height anomalies would be above normal over mostof the Northern Hemisphere, except some below-normal regions
such as around the Aleutian where the probability of belownormal category is not so high. The AO index would be aroundnormal with considerable spread.
1. Introduction
JMA utilizes the seasonal numerical ensemble prediction
system for one of the prognostic tools for the operational coldseason outlook since 2003. It consists of 31 ensemble members and employs the two-tier method for SST: a combinationof persisted anomalies, climatology and prediction with the
JMA’s El Niño prediction model (CGCM). More detailed
information on the prediction system are available at http://
okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/model/outline/longrange.html.
The verification results based on the 18-year hindcasts areTokyo Climate Center

2

availableat
http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/products/model/
hindcast/7mE/svs/index.html.
This report shows the main results of the ensemble prediction, whose initial date is 11th September 2005, for thethree-month mean from December 2005 to February 2006.
First, the predicted global SST anomalies are presented in
section 2. Then, the predicted circulation fields in the tropics and sub-tropics associated with those SST anomalies
are described in section 3. Finally, the predicted circulation
fields in the middle and high latitudes in the Northern
Hemisphere are explained in section 4.
2. SST anomalies (Figure 3)
During 2005/06 winter, the SST anomalies are predicted
to be slightly above normal, except in the following three
regions: the tropical eastern Pacific, the southern Indian
Ocean, and the Antarctic, where they are predicted to be

No.2 | October 2005

slightly below normal. Although no significant anomalies
are found, the overall anomaly pattern resembles that of
the linear trend in the period from 1979 to 2004 (notshown). Accordingly, it is expected that the atmospheric
response to the SST anomalies resembles the linear trend
pattern of the atmosphere, though the amplitude of the
response may not be so large.
3. Circulation fields in the tropics and sub-tropics(Figure 4)
In the tropics, no significant anomalies are predicted inboth the convection and the circulation fields as inferredfrom the predicted small SST anomalies. Though positive
rainfall anomalies are predicted over the maritime continent and over the northern Indian Ocean, the hindcasts
indicate that the forecasting skills for the rainfall are generally so low in those areas that the results should be interpreted with caution.
In the upper troposphere, a train of wave-like stream
function anomalies is found along the Asian jet stream;anti-cyclonic circulation anomalies are located over the
Middle East and over the East China Sea. Since a wavelike train pattern similar to the predicted one is also foundin the linear trend of stream function in the upper troposphere (not shown), it is suggested that the predicted
anomalies are forced by the SST anomalies resembling
the linear trend.

most parts of the Northern Hemisphere, except in the following three areas: the eastern part of Russia, around the AleutianIslands and the northern part of the Atlantic. But, the probabilities of below-normal category are not so high in theseareas (Figure 5). These predictions suggest that the temperatures will be above normal over eastern Asia, though cold
surges may affect the northern parts of the region.
The AO is the leading mode of the low frequency variability of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere. The AO
index of the ensemble mean prediction is near normal withconsiderable spread among the ensemble members (Figure 6).
This means that the seasonal predictions have large uncertainty in the areas where the climate is strongly affected by the
AO, such as the northern part of Japan.
(Shuhei Maeda, Climate Prediction Division)

4. Circulation fields in middle and high latitudes(Figure 5, Figure 6)
The ensemble mean anomaly indicates that the wintermean 500hPa height anomalies will be above normal overFigure 3 Predicted SST anomalies for 2005/2006 DJF

(a)

(c)

(b)

(d)

Figure 4 Predicted atmospheric fields for 2005/06 DJF (Ensemble mean of 31 members)(a) Precipitation (contour) and anomaly (shading). Contour interval is 2mm/day,(b) Velocity potential at 200hPa (contour) and anomaly (shading). Contour interval is 2×106m2/s,(c) Stream function at 200hPa (contour) and anomaly (shading). Contour interval is 16×106m2/s,(d) Stream function at 850hPa (contour) and anomaly (shading). Contour interval is 5×106m2/s.

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No.2 | October 2005

Figure 5 Predicted 500hPa height in the Northern Hemisphere for 2005/2006 DJF(a) Ensemble mean (solid contours; interval is 60m) andanomaly (dashed contours; interval is 30m). Negative
anomalies are shaded.
(b) Ensemble mean (solid contours; interval is 60m) and theprobabilities of anomalies predicted to be above{+0.42×standard deviation} or below {–0.42×standard
deviation}. Areas where probabilities exceed 50% arehatched. Areas above {+0.42×standard deviation} arecross hatched, and areas below {-0.42×standard deviation}
are single hatched.

AO Indices (EOF 1 score of Z500)

Figure 6 Observed (1975/76-2004/2005 DJF) andpredicted (2005/2006 DJF) AO index (left) defined by the first EOF of 500hPa height anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere (right).
In the left panel, thick line shows time series ofobserved AO indices. Black circles are ensemble
mean and ensemble mean ± spread. Cross showseach member.

T h e s t a t u s o f Ja p a n e s e 2 5 - ye a r re a n a ly s i s p ro j e c t a n d u s a ge
o f t h e p ro d u c t s
An ongoing long-term global atmospheric reanalysis covering 26 years from 1979 to 2004 is scheduled to be completedby March 2006. JMA has already started the web-based distribution of the products. These Japanese 25-year reanalysis(JRA-25) products have advantages in the accuracy of tropicalrainfall and the reproducibility of tropical cyclones in comparison with other reanalyses.
1. Outline
In the framework of operational weather and climate
services, there are serious needs for a consistent basic dataset that covers over recent decades. In 2000, JMA andCentral Research Institute of Electric Power Industry(CRIEPI) made decision to conduct a cooperative research
project for a new reanalysis that covers 26 years from 1979
to 2004. JMA's state-of-the-art operational global numerical weather prediction and data assimilation system havebeen used in JRA-25 after some modifications. The main
operation started in April 2004 using the CRIEPI's Fujitsu
VPP5000/32PE supercomputer. By September 2005, over
90 % of the calculation for the target period had been completed. The products are uploaded to our web server aftersome post processing. The latest information of the projectstatus can be found in the official web site (http://
www.jreap.org/indexe.html). After the completion of the
production in March 2006, this JRA-25 system will befollowed by the Japanese Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS), which will generate quasi-real-time products.

and assimilation cycles are repeated at 6-hour intervals. The
original JRA-25 products are a huge amount of grid pointvalues (GPVs) with the total amount of around 10 terabytes.
They include atmospheric pressure, temperature, wind, humidity including the stratosphere, precipitation, ground soil
wetness, sea surface temperature, sea ice coverage, accumulated snow, and so on. Due to limited telecommunication
resources, original spatial resolution: T106 Gaussian (320 x
160, about 125km horizontal grid intervals), vertical 40 levels
with top at 0.4 hPa are reduced to publicly-supplied version:
basically in 2.5-degree lat-lon grid (144 x 73, about 280km
intervals) with vertical 23 pressure levels. The binary formatof the JRA-25 products is GRIB and can be easily handledwith GrADS graphical routine freely distributed from COLA
and any other GRIB decorder. JMA is willing to supply thereanalysis products to any operational meteorological organizations and climate research communities. The download
procedure is briefly shown in Table 1.

Table 1 JRA-25 download procedure
Read web document‘How to use data?’(http://www.jreap.org/download/howto-e.html),
and ‘Reanalysis Evaluation Group’(http://www.jreap.org/organization/evaluation-e.html).
Sign up JRA-25 evaluation membership
Simply fill out your ‘Name’, ‘Organization’,‘E-mail address’ and 'Purpose of use'.
Download Data
(http://www.jreap.org/download/download-e.html)
Now three-dimensional analysis and first guess data at
23 layers of pressure levels, two-dimensional atmospheric monitor output, land surface and snow analysis
data are available.

2. Product and usage
The JRA-25 system is composed of a forecast modeland an assimilation module attached with land and snow
analysis. The forecast model is the JMA global spectral
model (GSM); its assimilation scheme is based on a JMA
operational 3-dimensional variational scheme. Forecast

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No.2 | October 2005

3. Advantages of JRA-25
Reanalysis products are comprehensive and consistent
resources not only for operational climate system monitoring but also for various climate and meteorological studies.
Preliminary evaluation shows JRA-25 data have advantages in the accuracy of tropical rainfall (Figure 7) and the
reproducibility of tropical cyclones (Figure 8). From
March 2006 onward, JMA will start quasi-real-time
JCDAS. We hope the products of JCDAS as well as JRA25 will give much benefit in climate-system monitoring
services and climate analysis studies.

References
JRA-25 working group, 2001: Japanese 25-year reanalysis
plan, available from http://www.jreap.org/indexe.html

Figure 7 Time series of correlation coefficient between
monthly averaged global precipitation generated by reanalyses, and CMAP satellite observation
Correlation of JRA-25 is the best among reanalyses since middleof 1987 when SSM/I precipitable water retrieval introduced inthe 3DVAR assimilation.

Figure 8 Tropical cyclones (TCs) in JRA-25 Reanalysis with
(Upper) and without (Lower) the impact of Dr. Mike
Fiorino’s TC wind retrieval (TCWR) data
In data sparse region, the impact of TCWR is significant. JRA-25
is the first case adopting this kind of data to a long-term reanalysis(These figures are provided by CRIEPI).

(Hiroshi Koide, Climate Prediction Division)

Summary of Asian Summer Monsoon 2005
The South Asian monsoon rainfall was near normal during
June to September 2005. In East Asia, precipitation was above
normal in southern China, the Republic of Korea, and southwestern Japan, while below normal over central and northern China,
and western Japan.

According to India Meteorological Department (IMD),
the southwest monsoon rainfall during the monsoon season,over India as a whole was 99% of its long period average.
The onset of monsoon was late over the Indian Peninsulaand eastern parts of India, but early advance over its northwestern parts. The withdrawal was delayed over most partsof India.
The rainfall during Baiu season over Japan was below
normal in its western parts and significantly above normal in
the southwestern parts. The beginning of Baiu season was
delayed in most of Japan except its southwestern parts. The
end of Baiu season was near normal or earlier than normal
in most of Japan except its southwestern and northern divisions.

1. Monsoon activities
Asian summer monsoon activities, inferred from the seasonal mean OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) overSoutheast Asia and India during the period from June to September 2005 (hereafter called “the monsoon period”), werenear normal (Figure 9). The most active convection area of
the Asian monsoon was located in the east of its normal position.

Figure 9 Four-month mean OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and anomalies (June-September 2005)
Solid lines indicate OLR (W/m2) with a contour interval of 30W/m2.

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No.2 | October 2005

2. Precipitation and temperature
The four-month total precipitation, based on CLIMAT
reports, during the monsoon season was above normal inwestern India, the central Indochina Peninsula, from thesouthern coast of China to southwestern Japan, in Shandong
province in China and in the Republic of Korean, while below normal from eastern Mongolia to northern China(Figure 10). In June, significantly heavy precipitation wasobserved in western India and southwestern parts of Japan.
In July, precipitation was significantly heavy in central India. In August, significantly light precipitation was observed in northwestern India. In September, precipitation
was significantly heavy in the eastern and western coasts
and northwestern parts of India, and over the Indochina Peninsula.
The four-month mean temperature during the same period was higher than normal over most of Asia, except western India and northern Thailand, and significantly high in
Malaysia and over eastern Mongolia to northern China(Figure 11). In June, significantly high temperature wasobserved across eastern India through China to Japan andover Malaysia to the Kalimantan Island. In July, temperature was significantly high in southern China and over Mongolia to northern China. In August, significantly high temperature was observed in southern India, over the Malay

Peninsula to the Kalimantan Island, and in eastern Mongolia. In September, temperature was significantly high acrossnorthern India through southern China to western Japan.

Figure 10 Four-month precipitation ratio (%) and tropical
cyclone tracks during June to September 2005

Figure 11 Four-month mean temperature anomaly (℃)
during June to September 2005

3. Tropical cyclones
During the monsoon season, 15 tropical cyclones occurred over the western North Pacific, and the number of theoccurrence is near normal, compared to the 1971-2000 average of 16.4 (Figure 10). There were eight tropical cyclones
causing damage to East Asia or the Indochina Peninsula(Table 2). The typhoon “Talim”, which crossed southeastern
China from 31 August to 2 September, and the typhoon“Damrey”, which migrated westward across the northern
South China Sea and made landfall on northern Vietnam on
27 September, led to more than 100 fatalities, respectively.
In early September, the typhoon “Nabi” hit Japan andcaused severe damage such as 26 deaths and three missing
people.
4. Noticeable weather-related disasters other thantropical cyclones
Major weather-related disasters in Asia, except thoserelated to tropical cyclones, during the monsoon season are
as the following. In June, heat waves occurred in eastern
India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, causing above 300 fatalities. In southern China, more than 230 deaths due to heavy

Table 2 Tropical cyclones which caused damage to East Asia and the Indochina Peninsula during June to September 2005
Number

Name

Date
(UTC)

T0505

Haitang

7/13 - 7/20

T0507

Banyan7/21 - 7/28

Category1)

Min Pressure2)(hPa)

Max Winds3)(knots)Fatalities4)

TY

920

105

15

China

STS

975

55

0

Japan
China

Affected Countries

T0509

Matsa

7/31 - 8/ 7

TY

950

80

13

T0511

Mawar

8/19 - 8/28

TY

930

95

0

Japan

T0513

Talim

8/27 - 9/ 2

TY

925

95

over 100

China

T0514

Nabi

8/29 - 9/ 8

TY

925

95

26

Japan

T0515

Khanun9/ 7 - 9/13

TY

945

85

14

China

T0518

Damrey9/21 - 9/27

TY

955

80

over 120

the Philippines, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Lao P.D.R

1) Abbreviations of tropical cyclone categories
TS: Tropical Storm, STS: Severe Tropical Storm, TY: Typhoon2) Estimated minimum central pressure3) Estimated maximum 10-minute mean winds
4) The number of fatalities is based on media reports, except on reports from Japan Fire and Disaster Management Agency forcases in Japan.

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No.2 | October 2005

parts of Japan. What is the possible mechanism of thisabrupt change? After the 38th pentad, the propagation of the
Rossby wave along the Asian jet was observed, andstrengthened anti-cyclonic circulation over northeastern
China in the 40th pentad (Figure 12). In addition, the typhoon “Haitang” moved slowly westward over the western
North Pacific (Figure 13), and simultaneously the strengthening of anti-cyclonic circulation was observed in the lower
troposphere over the Yellow Sea and the western part ofJapan. It is supposed that the formation of those anticyclonic circulations, which seem to be related to both thewave propagation and the typhoon, caused the dramaticchange of water vapor flow in East Asia (Figure 14) andweakened the Meiyu/Baiu front.

rain were reported. On 27 July, a record-breaking rainfall of
944 mm was observed at Mumbai, India, which caused devastating damage such as over 1000 deaths. In early August,heavy rain caused by active Baiu front in the Republic ofKorea led to 11 fatalities. In August, heavy rain, floods, andlandslides occurred in Liaoning and Hubei provinces in
China, resulting in over 50 deaths. In middle September, acyclonic storm, which formed over the northern Bay of Bengal and made landfall on the central Bay-side of India,
caused more than 50 fatalities.
5. The abrupt Atmospheric Circulation Change in East
Asia around the End of Meiyu/Baiu Season
In the former half of mid-July (the 39th pentad of theyear), Meiyu/Baiu front was stagnant from central China to
the main islands of Japan. In the latter half of mid-July (the40th pentad), it abruptly weakened, which brought the end of
Meiyu/Baiu season in most of East Asia except northern

Figure 12 Five-day Mean 200hPa Stream Function andWave Activity Flux
Contours show stream function (×106m2/s). Vectors show wave
activity flux (×106m2/s2) after Takaya and Nakamura (2001,
JAS, 58, 608-627).

(1: Chiaki Kobayashi, 2-4: Shotaro Tanaka, and5: Yayoi Harada, Climate Prediction Division)

Figure 13 Five-day Mean 850hPa Stream Function and OLR
Contours show stream function (×106m2/s). Shading shows
OLR (W/m2).

Figure 14 10-day Mean Equivalent Potential Temperature and Water Vapor Flux before and after the weakening of the
Meiyu/Baiu front
Shading shows equivalent potential temperature (K) at 850hPa. Vectors show water vapor flux (g/kg*m/s) at 850hPa.

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No.2 | October 2005

P ro j e c t e d c h a n ge o f A s i a n s u m m e r m o n s o o n :a re p o r t o n a g l o b a l w a r m i n g e x p e r i m e n t by a n AG C M
with a 20-km grid
The global warming projection, conducted by using a very
high horizontal resolution atmospheric general circulation
model with a 20-km grid produced by MRI/JMA, implys that thesubtropical high south of Japan would be intensified and leadto the increase of water vapour conveyance from the tropics tothe East China Sea during Asian summer monsoon season.
The evaluation of the impact of the global warming on
the change of Asian summer monsoon season are selected
as one of the main targets of this study, because the activity of Asian summer monsoon greatly affects the life andsociety of people living in the region. So far various
global climate models in the world have not given reliable
simulations and projections due to their insufficient resolutions.
Figure 15a shows the observed distribution of climatological precipitation and 850-hPa wind vector for July.
Figure 15b shows simulated July climatology by the model
under the present-day climate condition. The model reproduces Baiu rain band reasonably well over Japan, Korea,
China, although the model overestimates precipitation over
Korea. Also the model well reproduces precipitation overIndian subcontinent, although the model overestimates
precipitation over oceans. As for 850-hPa wind field, themodel well reproduces clockwise circulation over the subtropical high, north-eastward flow from Indochina to Japan, and Somali jet.
Figure 15c shows the change of precipitation and 850hPa wind field projected by the model for July. Precipitation increases over the Yangtze River Basin, the East
China Sea and the ocean to the south of Japan. Clockwise
circulation change of 850-hPa wind over the subtropicalhigh means the intensification of subtropical high.
Strengthening of clockwise circulation together with increase of water vapour amount due to the warming of atmosphere leads to the increase of water vapour transport
from the tropics to the East China Sea. In contrast, precipitation decreases over Korea and Northern Japan. In spiteof the weakening of Somali jet, precipitation over Indian
subcontinent increases. This is because the water vapour
transport decrease due to the weakening of Somali jet iscompensated by the increases of water vapour amount due
to the warming of atmosphere.
Acknowledgements
This study was conducted under the framework of the
Research
Revolution
2002(RR2002)
project"Development of Super-High-Resolution Global and Regional Climate Models" funded by Ministry of Education,
Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). This
project is called "Kyosei-4 project". The Earth Simulator
was used for the 20-km model calculation

Any comments or inquiries on this newsletter and/or
the TCC website would be much appreciated. Please email to the following address:
tcc@climar.kishou.go.jp(Chief Editor: Shingo Yamada)Tokyo Climate Center

Reference
Kusunoki, S. et al, 2005: Global warming projection by a 20km mesh super high resolution atmospheric general circulation model. In proceedings of "International Workshop on
Variability and Predictability of the Earth Climate System".
26-27 January 2005, The University of Tokyo, 292-317.
(Shoji Kusunoki, Meteorological Research Institute)

Figure 15 Distribution of climatological precipitation (colour,
mm/day) and 850-hPa wind vector (arrow, m/s) for July(a) Observed precipitation by the GPCP one-degree daily data
(Huffman et al. 2001 ) for 7 years from 1997 to 2003. Observed
wind by the ERA-40 data (Simmons and Gibson 2000) for 30 years
from 1971 to 2000, (b) Model's present-day climate 10-year simulation forced by observed climatological (1982-1993) sea surface
temperature (SST) by Reynolds and Smith (1994), (c) Change as
future minus present-day simulation. In a future 10-year simulation
around year2090, IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario (IPCC 2000)
is assumed. Future SST change is taken from projection by Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled model (MRI-CGCM2.3) and added to observed SST used in the present-day simulation.

Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Climate Prediction Division, JMA
Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
TCC website: http://okdk.kishou.go.jp/index.html

8No.2 | October 2005