Winter 2011

No. 23
Contents
Global Temperature in 20101

Highlights of the Global Climate in 20102

Summary of Japan’s Climate in 2010

3

Update of JMA's OneOne-month Ensemble Prediction System

4

TCC Activity Report for 2010

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TCC Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV Data to Seasonal
Forecast Products

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Global Temperature in 2010
The annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature in 2010 was the second highest on record at 0.34°C
above normal.
Monitoring temperature records across the globe is essential in understanding, mitigating and adapting to thechanging climate of Planet Earth. As one of the world’s
leading climate centers, the Japan Meteorological Agency(JMA) calculates the global mean surface temperature (i.e.,the combined average of near-surface air temperatures overland and sea surface temperatures) on a monthly and anannual basis, thereby helping to raise public awareness ofthe ongoing development of global warming.
The annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature last year was +0.34°C against the 1971 – 2000

average, which was the second-highest figure (after 1998)
since 1891 – the earliest year of JMA’s global temperature
anomaly records (Figure 1, Table 1). Warm temperaturedeviations were noticeable around the world, not least in
the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, with some exceptions in parts of Central Asia (Figure 2). The average temperature over terrestrial surfaces was the third highest on
record.
On a longer time scale, the annual global average surface temperature has been rising at a rate of about 0.68°C
per century.
It can be presumed that the high temperatures seen inrecent years have been influenced by natural climatic variability (which fluctuates in cycles with durations ranging
from several years to several decades) as well as by longer-

Figure 1 Long-term change in surface temperature
anomalies averaged over the globe
The light-blue and pink bars indicate anomalies of surface
temperature for each year. The blue line indicates the fiveyear running mean, and the straight red line shows thelong-term linear trend. Anomalies are calculated as deviations from the normal (i.e., the 1971 – 2000 average).

Figure 2 Annual mean temperature anomalies in 2010
The filled circles indicate temperature anomalies from theclimatological normal (i.e. the 1971 – 2000 average) averaged in 5° x 5° grid boxes.

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No. 23 | Winter 2011

term global warming stemming from increased atmospheric concentrationof anthropogenic greenhouse gases, including CO2. In addition to thesefactors, the warm conditions experienced in 2010 can also be attributed to
an El Niño event that lasted from summer 2009 to spring 2010.
Global average temperatures are monitored on an operational basis bymultiple climate centers (the National Climate Data Center (USA), theGoddard Institute for Space Studies (USA), the Met Office Hadley Centre(UK) and JMA). On a monthly basis, these centers calculate the global
temperature independently of each other in terms of analytical approaches
and computation procedures. Despite this methodological divergence, theresults they produce indicate similar patterns of month-to-month andyear-to-year variability, and more importantly, an almost-identical longterm warming trend (Figure 3). The four records all show that our planet
has become almost 0.8°C warmer than it was at the beginning of the 20th
century.
Monthly and annual temperature anomaly datasets for 5° x 5° gridboxes are available for download at http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/
products/gwp/temp/map/download.html.

Table 1 Top ten annual global temperatures(Shown as anomalies relative to the 1971-2000
base period)

Rank

Year

Temperature
Anomaly

1
2
3
4

1998
2010
2005
2009
2006
2003
2002
2007
2004
2001

+0.37
+0.34
+0.32
+0.31
+0.31
+0.31
+0.31
+0.28
+0.27
+0.27

8
9

(Yoshinori Oikawa, Climate Prediction Division)

Figure 3 Global surface temperature records
from four independent climate centers
Albeit small differences in ranges of annual
fluctuation, the four records show long-termrising trends remarkably close to each other.
(Note: Anomalies are adjusted to the base period of 1951 – 1980, for the sake of convenienceof comparison.)Highlights of the Global Climate in 2010
Annual mean temperatures were above normal in mostareas of the world except in the areas of western to central
Siberia, Europe and Australia (Figure 4). Extremely hightemperatures were frequently observed around low latitudes
between 30° S and 30° N, around western Russia, andaround eastern North America, while extremely low temperatures were observed in Europe from January to February and from November to December and around the southeastern USA from February to March and in December.

Annual precipitation amounts were above normal inIndonesia, around Pakistan, in eastern Europe, in western
Africa, in the northwestern USA, around the Caribbean Sea
and in Australia, while they were below normal in southwestern South America (Figure 5). Extremely heavy precipitation amounts were frequently observed in northeastern
China, around southern Indonesia and around the Caribbean
Sea, while extremely light precipitation amounts were often
seen in southwestern South America.

Figure 4 Annual mean temperature anomalies for 2010
Categories are defined by the annual mean temperature anomaly
against the normal divided by its standard deviation and averaged
in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of each category are -1.28, 0.44, 0, +0.44 and +1.28. The normal values and standard deviations are calculated from 1971 – 2000 statistics. Land areas without graphics represent regions for which the sample size of observation data is insufficient or normal data are unavailable.

Figure 5 Annual total precipitation amount ratios for 2010
Categories are defined by the annual precipitation ratio to thenormal averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of eachcategory are 70%, 100% and 120%. Land areas without graphics represent regions for which the sample size of observation
data is insufficient or normal data are unavailable.

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No. 23 | Winter 2011

The major extreme climatic events and weather-related
disasters of 2010 are listed below (also see Figure 6):(1) Low temperatures around western Siberia (Jan. – Feb.,
Dec.)(2) Low temperatures around Mongolia (Feb. – Apr., Dec.)(3) High temperatures around Japan (Jun. – Sep.)(4) Torrential rains in central China (Aug.)(5) Typhoons and heavy precipitation amounts from western Japan to Thailand (Oct.)(6) High temperatures in Southeast Asia (all year round)(7) Heavy precipitation around southern Indonesia (Jul. –Oct.)(8) Heavy precipitation around Pakistan (Jun. – Sep.)(9) Low temperatures in Europe (Jan. – Feb., Nov. – Dec.)(10) High temperatures and light precipitation around western Russia (Jun. – Aug.)(11) High temperatures from the Middle East to western
Africa (all year round)(12) High temperatures around Madagascar (all year round)(13) High temperatures around eastern North America (allyear round)(14) Low temperatures around the southeastern USA (Feb.
– Mar., Dec.)(15) Heavy precipitation around the Caribbean Sea (Jun. –Dec.)(16) High temperatures in northern South America (Jan. –Nov.)(17) Low temperatures in southern South America (May,Jul. – Aug., Dec.)(18) Heavy precipitation in eastern Australia (Dec.)(Takafumi Umeda, Climate Prediction Division)(9) Cold Jan.–Feb., Nov.–Dec. (1) Cold Jan.–Feb., Dec.
(10) Warm, dry Jun.–Aug.

(13) Warm all year round(2) Cold Feb.–Apr., Dec.
(3) Warm Jun.–Sep.
(14) Cold Feb.–Mar., Dec.
(4) Torrential rain Aug.
(5) Typhoon, Wet Oct.
(6) Warm all year round(11) Warm all year round(15) Wet Jun.–Dec.
(18) Wet Dec. (16) Warm Jan.–Nov.

(8) Wet Jun.–Sep.
(12) Warm all year round
Warm

Cold

Wet

(17) Cold May, Jul.–Aug., Dec.

(7) Wet Jul.–Oct.

Dry

Figure 6 Major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters across the world in 2010
Schematic indication of major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters that occurred during the year

Summary of Japan’s Climate in 2010
- Above-normal annual mean temperatures nationwide- Above-normal annual precipitation except on the Sea ofJapan side of western Japan- Very large intraseasonal temperature variations in winterand spring- Hottest summer in more than 100 years- Severe late-summer heat in the first half of September(1) Average surface temperature, precipitation andsunshine duration (Figure 7)
Annual mean temperatures were above normal nationwide, and the average surface temperature over Japan(averaged over 17 observatories confirmed as being relatively unaffected by urbanization) in 2010 was 0.86°C
above normal (based on the 1971 – 2000 average), which
was the fourth highest since 1898.
Annual precipitation amounts were above normal except on the Sea of Japan side of western Japan. Annual
sunshine durations were significantly below normal innorthern Japan and Okinawa/Amami.

Figure 7 Annual climate anomalies/ratios over Japan in 2010

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(2) Seasonal features (Figure 8)(a) Winter (December 2009 – February 2010)
Although seasonal mean temperatures were above normal nationwide, intraseasonal temperature variations werelarge. Due to cold spells, many parts on the Sea of Japanside were hit by heavy snowfall in the middle of December, the first half of January and the first ten days of February. In early February, heavy snowfall hit Niigata on the
Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan with a maximum snow
depth of 81 cm, which was the highest on record since
winter 1984/85.
(b) Spring (March – May 2010)
Intraseasonal temperature variations were very large
nationwide. In the first and second ten-day periods ofMarch and in the first ten days of May, temperatures weresignificantly above normal nationwide due to warm-air
advection from the south. However, in the last ten days ofMarch, the latter half of April and the last ten days ofMay, temperatures were below normal nationwide due tocold spells. Since cyclones and fronts frequently passed
near mainland Japan, seasonal precipitation amounts weresignificantly above normal in northern, eastern and western parts of the country, and seasonal sunshine durations

were significantly below normal in northern Japan and on
the Sea of Japan side in eastern and western parts of thecountry.
(c) Summer (June – August 2010)
Japan experienced its hottest summer in more than 100
years, and the seasonal mean temperature was the highest
on record since 1898. In particular, August was so hot that77 out of 154 observatories in Japan recorded new recordhigh monthly mean temperatures. Seasonal precipitation
amounts were significantly above normal on the Sea ofJapan side of northern Japan due to the influence of fronts.
(d) Autumn (September – November 2010)
Seasonal mean temperatures were above normal nationwide, and significantly above normal in northern Japan. Due to severe late-summer heat in the first half ofSeptember, 46 out of 154 stations recorded new highs forthe number of extremely hot days (i.e., those with a maximum daily temperature of 35°C or more) in September.
Seasonal precipitation amounts were significantly above
normal in Okinawa/Amami.
(Shuhei Maeda, Climate Prediction Division)

Figure 8 Time series of five-day running mean temperature anomalies for subdivisions
The normal is the 1971 – 2000 average.

Update of JMA's One-month Ensemble Prediction System
JMA will update its Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)
for operational one-month forecasting on 4 March, 2011.
The main updates are outlined below.
* Implementation of a new dynamical frame- Reduction of execution time
(Application of reduced Gaussian Grids: reduction of
the number of grid points used in the calculation of
nonlinear terms – especially in the polar region – inorder to save on execution time and computational
resources)- Quadrupling of precision in evaluating the parameters for transformation between spectral and grid-point
space- Refinement of other dynamical processes* Update of the climatological aerosol total optical depth* Minor change to land surface processes(Refinement of permeability in soil to improve soil
wetness reproducibility in the snowmelt season)

As these updates involve only minor changes to themodel physical processes, the impact on prediction fields issmall, and the level of prediction skill is expected to becomparable to that of the current system. Meanwhile, hindcast experiments have been executed using the new system,and the target period will be extended from 1979 – 2004 to
1979 – 2009. In addition, plans are under way to execute anexperiment for 2010 by this summer.

Tokyo Climate Center

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One-month prediction products are available on the TCC
website at http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/
index.html. GPV data files for operational forecasting andhindcasting are also available exclusively to registered
NMHSs. To register, please contact TCC at
tcc@climar.kishou.go.jp.
(Masayuki Hirai, Climate Prediction Division)

No. 23 | Winter 2011

TCC Activity Report for 2010
The Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has prepared the Activity Report of theTokyo Climate Center for 2010, covering climate-related activities by TCC in 2010 and its plans for 2011.
1. New Content on the TCC Website
TCC operates a website that provides climate-related
operational data and products as well as presentation materials used in meetings and training events (http://
ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.htm).
The Center makes annual and monthly mean global average temperature data available through its website, andthe provision of seasonal mean global average temperatures(i.e., for winter, spring, summer and autumn in the Northern
Hemisphere) was commenced in September 2010.
A useful web-based tool for climate diagnosis referred toas ITACS (Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate
System) enables users not only to monitor the current climate status but also to analyze the complex systems that lie
behind climatic conditions. In July 2010, an ITACS tutorial
was made available on the ITACS web page (http://
jra.kishou.go.jp/itacs-info/tcc/itacsinfo.html). As of the endof 2010, a number of NMHSs in the Asia-Pacific region(Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Laos, Mongolia, Bangladesh, Philippines, Viet Nam, Malaysia and China) wereregistered as ITACS users.
2. Improvements to JMA’s Ensemble Prediction System
for Long-range Forecasting
JMA improved its ensemble prediction system for longrange forecasting in February 2010. The main updates
were: (1) introduction of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to replace the atmospheric generalcirculation model; (2) a change in ensemble techniques and
EPS operation; and (3) provision of new grid point value
products. In conjunction with these updates, relevant dataand products (including monthly GPV data from individual
ensemble members in addition to ensemble mean data andhindcast data) were also made available on the TCC web
page (for registered NMHSs only). Please refer to TCC
News No. 19 for details (http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/
news/tccnews19.pdf).
3. Training Activities
JMA has conducted training courses in meteorology forexperts from NMHSs since 1973 on an annual basis as oneof the training initiatives provided by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The 2010 course washeld from September to December with an emphasis on theoperational use of numerical weather prediction, satellite
meteorology and climate information. In the climate information session, staff members from the Climate Prediction
Division gave lectures on climate system monitoring, longrange forecasting, the El Niño outlook and global warming
projection to four participants from Bhutan, Cambodia, Iranand Malaysia.

for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) of theVietnamese National Hydro-Meteorological Service to discuss and exchange views for further improvement of theclimate services provided by NCHMF and TCC.
In December 2010, at the request of the Indonesia Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency(BMKG), TCC hosted two experts from BMKG for threedays. They learned about JMA’s operational climate prediction and ocean wave models as well as their utilization.
TCC experts participated in a number of international
meetings, including the sixth session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for
Regional Association II (FOCRAII) held at the Beijing Climate Center in April, the first session of the South Asian
Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) held in Pune, India in
April, and the 11th Joint Meeting for the Seasonal Prediction of the East Asian Winter Monsoon in Seoul in November, organized by the Korea Meteorological Administration.
These experts gave presentations on recent TCC activities,
introduced the data and products available on the TCC website, and participated in discussions on the seasonal outlook
for the coming season.
5. Future Plans
TCC will update its web page (http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/
tcc/tcc/index.html) in March. The updated page will provide links to data and products in line with RCC mandatory
functions ((1) operational activities for LRF, (2) operational
activities for climate monitoring, (3) operational data services to support operational LRF and climate monitoring,and (4) training in the use of operational RCC products andservices).
In February 2011, hindcast data for three-month andwarm/cold season prediction (maps and charts) will bemade available on the TCC website.
In March 2011, JMA will update its one-month forecasting model. Accordingly, relevant hindcast data will bemade available on the TCC web page in advance (for registered NMHSs only).
As to improvements in JMA’s ensemble prediction system for long-range forecasting, TCC will consider providing 1.25° x 1.25° grid GPV data for the Asian region in2012.
In order to facilitate the utilization of seasonal forecast
data, TCC will hold a training seminar on the application ofseasonal forecast GPV data to seasonal forecast products inJanuary. It will also hold another training seminar on seasonal prediction this autumn focusing on one-month forecasts.
(Kumi Hayashi,Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division)

4. International Cooperation
In March 2010, a JMA expert visited the National Centre

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TCC Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV
Data to Seasonal Forecast Products
TCC held the Training Seminar on Application of Seasonal Forecast GPV Data to Seasonal Forecast Products at
JMA Headquarters in Tokyo from 18 to 21 January, 2011,as part of its capacity-building activities in its role as one of
the Regional Climate Centers in WMO RA II. The purposeof the seminar was to assist NMHSs in enhancing their operational seasonal forecasting services. The event was attended by 19 representatives from 18 NMHSs engaged inoperational long-range forecasting in the Asia-Pacific region (Bangladesh, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Kazakhstan,Laos, Malaysia, the Maldives, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal,
Pakistan, the Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, Sri Lanka,
Thailand, Uzbekistan and Viet Nam). The participantslearned about the seasonal forecast GPV data available on
the TCC website as well as their application to seasonal
forecast products such as probabilistic seasonal forecasts.
After a series of lectures and practical exercises, individual participants gave presentations on the exercise results ofstatistical guidance for seasonal forecasting in each country.
The seminar provided a good opportunity for the attendees
to deepen their knowledge of GPV data utilization and application.
(Kumi Hayashi,Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division)

Any comments or inquiries on this newsletter and/or the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Climate Prediction Division, JMA
TCC website would be much appreciated. Please e-mail Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8123, Japan
to: tcc@climar.kishou.go.jp
TCC website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html(Chief Editor: Kumi Hayashi)Tokyo Climate Center

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No. 23 | Winter 2011