No. 47

Winter 2017
Contents

Page

Global temperature for 2016 was the highest since 1891

1

Highlights of the Global Climate in 20162

Summary of Japan’s Climatic Characteristics for 2016

4

Development of new functions and analysis methods in TCC’s Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate System

6

TCC Activity Report for 20167

Global temperature for 2016 was the highest since 1891
Ten of the 11 warmest years on record since 1891 haveoccurred during this century. The recent high temperatures
are thought to be affected by the global warming trend due
to increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations
including carbon dioxide. Moreover the global averaged
surface temperature is affected by inter-annual to decadal
natural fluctuations intrinsic to the earth’s climate, and thehighest temperature for 2016 is thought to be due to El
Niño event which has persisted from the boreal summer
2014 to spring 2016.
JMA monitors monthly, seasonal and annual averageanomalies of global surface temperature. Those results areroutinely updated on the following TCC website:
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wl
d.html(Koji Ishihara, Climate Prediction Division)

The annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature for the year 2016 (i.e. the combined average of thenear-surface air temperature over land and the sea surface
temperature) is estimated at +0.45°C above the 1981-2010
average, making it the warmest record for the 126-year
period since 1891 (Figure 1). In 2016, the monthly average
air temperatures for January, February, March, April, June
and July, and the seasonal average air temperatures for theboreal winter, spring, and summer were also the highest
recorded since 1891. Warm temperature deviations areespecially seen over wide area of Eurasia, North America,
the Indian Ocean, and the Tropical Pacific (Figure 2). On alonger time scale, the annual global average surface temperature has been rising at a rate of about 0.72°C per century.

Figure 1Long-term change in annual mean surface
temperature anomalies over the globe
The black line with filled circles indicatesanomalies of surface temperature in eachyear. The blue line indicates five-year running mean, and the red line indicates along-term linear trend. Anomalies are represented as deviations from the 1981-2010
average.

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Rank

Year

1
2
3
4
5

2016
2015
2014
1998
2013
2010
2005
2009
2006
2003
2002

7
8

Temperature Anomaly
w.r.t. 1981-2010 average
+0.45
+0.42
+0.27
+0.22
+0.20
+0.20
+0.17
+0.16
+0.16
+0.16
+0.16

Table 1 Ranking of annual global averagetemperatures
Figure 2 Annual mean temperature anomalies in 2016
The circles indicate anomalies of surface temperature averaged in 5° x 5° grid boxes.
Anomalies are deviations from the 1981-2010 average.

Highlights of the Global Climate in 2016
Annual mean temperatures were above normal in many
parts of the world and below normal in the southwesternpart of Eastern Siberia and in northern Argentina (Figure 3).
In particular, extremely high temperatures continued formost of the year in various places at low latitudes, and werealso frequently observed from the northern part of Central
Siberia to the Svalbard Islands, from the eastern part ofEastern Siberia to the western coast of Canada and from
northern to southeastern Australia.

Annual precipitation amounts were above normal in eastern China, Mongolia, Central Asia, southeastern Europe,
Indonesia and southern Argentina, and were below normal
in eastern Brazil and southern Chile (Figure 4). Extremely
high amounts were frequently observed in southeastern Europe, from the Midwest to the southern USA and in southeastern Australia, while extremely low amounts were frequently observed from southwestern France to northeastern
Spain and in eastern Brazil.

Figure 3 Annual mean temperature anomalies for 2016
Categories are defined by the annual mean temperature anomaly
against the normal divided by its standard deviation and averaged
in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of each category are -1.28,-0.44, 0, +0.44 and +1.28. The normal values and standard deviations are calculated from 1981 – 2010 statistics. Land areas without graphics represent regions for which the observation data
sample is insufficient or normal data are unavailable.

Figure 4 Annual total precipitation amount ratios for 2016
Categories are defined by the annual precipitation ratio to thenormal averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholds of eachcategory are 70, 100 and 120%. Land areas without graphics represent regions for which the observation data sample is insufficient or normal data are unavailable.

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No. 47 | Winter 2017

(17) Warm: in the western part of Western Africa to the

Major extreme climatic events and weather-related disasters occurring in 2016 are listed below (also see Figure 5).

northwestern part of Middle Africa (April – June, August – December)(18) Warm: Seychelles to the northeastern part of South
Africa (January – April, October)(19) Warm: the eastern part of Eastern Siberia to the western coast of Canada (April – August, October)(20) Wet: the Midwest to the southern USA (March –April, July – August)(21) Warm: the eastern to the southern USA (March, June –October)(22) Warm: the southwestern USA to northwestern Mexico(February – March, October – December)(23) Hurricane: Haiti and the southeastern USA (October)(24) Warm: southern Mexico to Colombia (January – August, October)(25) Warm (February – August) and Dry (February – May):eastern Brazil(26) Warm: in and around central Chile (January – February, August – September, November)(27) Warm: Micronesia (March – April, June, August)(28) Warm: northern to southeastern Australia (March –July, September, November)(29) Wet: southeastern Australia (January, June, September)(30) Warm: in and around New Zealand (February, May,
September)(1) Heavy rain: the northeastern part of the Korean peninsula (August – September)(2) Cold: in and around eastern Mongolia (January, October – November)(3) Heavy rain: China (April – July)(4) Warm: southern Kyushu region in Japan to southeastern China (April – June, October, December)(5) Warm: Southeast Asia (January – May, July – November)(6) Drought: Southeast Asia (January – May)
(7) Tropical storm: Sri Lanka, northeastern India and
Bangladesh (May)(8) Warm: southern India to Sri Lanka (January – April,
July – August, October, December)(9) Heat wave (March – May) and Wet (July – October):India(10) Heavy rain: Pakistan (July – August)(11) Heavy rain: northern Pakistan to Afghanistan (March –April)(12) Warm: the northern part of Central Siberia to theSvalbard Islands (February, April – July, September)(13) Wet: southeastern Europe (February – March, May –June, October)(14) Dry: southwestern France to northeastern Spain (July –August, October, December)(15) Warm: in and around northern Algeria (January –(Kenji Kamiguchi, Tokyo Climate Center)February, October)(16) Warm: northeastern Saudi Arabia to the southern coastof the Red Sea (March, May – July)

Figure 5 Major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters across the world in 2016
Schematic representation of major extreme climate events and weather-related disasters occurring during the year

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Summary of Japan’s Climatic Characteristics for 2016
- Annual mean temperatures were significantly above normal in eastern Japan, western Japan and Okinawa/Amami.
- Annual precipitation amounts were significantly above
normal on the Pacific side of northern Japan, in westernJapan and in Okinawa/Amami.
- Four typhoons made landfall on northern Japan in August,bringing record heavy rainfall to Hokkaido and Iwate Prefecture.
- In autumn, western Japan experienced record-high seasonal precipitation amounts and the shortest autumn
sunshine durations since 1946.

2. Seasonal characteristics(a) Winter (December 2015 – February 2016)
In association with a weak winter monsoon, seasonaltemperatures were above normal all over Japan, especially in eastern and western parts. Seasonal snowfall
amounts were generally below normal for the Sea of Japan side and significantly above normal in northern Kyushu in association with significant cold air outbreaks at
the end of January. Due to significant influence fromlow-pressure systems and fronts, seasonal precipitation
amounts were above normal all over Japan, with thehighest for winter since 1946/47 recorded in Okinawa/Amami.

1. Annual characteristics
In 2016, temperatures were generally above normal allover Japan except in autumn in northern Japan. Due tosignificant influence from low-pressure systems and fronts
on western Japan and Okinawa/Amami in winter (2015/16)
and autumn, and to the effects of numerous typhoons thatapproached northern Japan in August, annual precipitation
amounts were significantly above normal on the Pacificside of northern Japan, in western Japan and in Okinawa/Amami. In addition, western Japan experienced record-high seasonal precipitation amounts and the shortest
autumn sunshine durations since 1946. Meanwhile, annual
precipitation amounts were above normal in northern Japanand on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan in association
with frequent high-pressure systems covering these regions.

(b) Spring (March – May)
Seasonal mean temperatures were significantly above
normal due to warm southerly winds associated withdominant high-pressure systems to the east of Japan andthe development of the subtropical high to the south ofJapan. Seasonal sunshine durations were significantly
above normal on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japanand above normal in northern and western Japan due tothe significant influence of the high-pressure systems.
Seasonal precipitation amounts were significantly below
normal on the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan and below normal on the Pacific side of northern Japan. Meanwhile, seasonal precipitation amounts were above normal
on the Pacific side of western Japan and in Okinawa/Amami due to the influence of low-pressure systems
and fronts in April.

Figure 6 Time-series representation of five-day running mean temperature anomalies for subdivisions (January – December2016). The normal is the 1981 – 2010 average.

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(c) Summer (June – August)Monthly mean temperatures and sunshine durations
were above normal all over Japan. In Okinawa/Amami,
monthly mean temperatures were the highest for summer
since 1946 due to a combination of strong solar radiationand long sunshine durations. Meanwhile, in northern Japan, seasonal precipitation amounts were the highest forsummer since 1946 due to the frequent passage of cyclones around the region in June and typhoons in August.
In particular, the Pacific side of northern Japan experienced the highest precipitation amounts for summer since1946. Four typhoons made landfall on Hokkaido and
Iwate Prefecture, bringing storms and notably heavy
rainfall to areas from northern to eastern Japan. In particular, Hokkaido and Iwate Prefecture experienced record
heavy rainfall that caused serious damage from phenomena such as river overflows and landslides.
(d) Autumn (September – November)Western Japan and Okinawa/Amami experienced thehighest autumn mean temperatures since 1946 due to thepresence of warm southerly winds. In association withsignificant influence from low-pressure systems andfronts, western Japan experienced the highest autumn
precipitation amounts and the shortest autumn sunshine
durations since 1946. In other regions, seasonal sunshine
durations were also below normal. In northern Japan,
seasonal mean temperatures were below normal for the
first time since 2002 due to ongoing low temperatures
after October.

Figure 7 Annual climate anomalies/ratios for Japan in 2016

(Masayuki Hirai, Climate Prediction Division)

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Development of new functions and analysis methods in TCC’s Interactive Tool for
Analysis of the Climate System
TCC’s Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate
System (iTacs) is a web-based application launched in2009 to assist National Meteorological and Hydrological
Services (NMHSs) in their analysis of extreme climate
events and monitoring of climate conditions. Several improvements and version upgrades have been implemented, with the last upgrade being made in November 2015.
TCC promotes iTacs usage through various opportunities
for introduction of iTacs and annual training seminars.
Consequently, there are currently more than 320 users by
the end of February 2017 (Figure 8).
iTacs users have access to analysis and forecast datasets. The former consists of re-analysis and observational data such as the Japanese 55-year reanalysis(JRA-55) dataset, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR)
provided by NOAA, sea surface temperature analysis(COBE-SST) from JMA’s Climate Prediction Division,
and world climate data from surface observation stations(CLIMAT reports). The forecast dataset consists ofone-month prediction model products and JMA’s
re-forecast (hind-cast) dataset.
Since the last version upgrade, TCC has added newelements based on feedback and requests from iTacs users and JMA’s Advisory Panel on Extreme Climate
Events. Users can also now produce images expressing
isentropic potential vorticity with levels from 270 to 850
K and constant fields such as altitude, land or sea masking (e.g., expressed with 0 for land and 1 for ocean) derived in the JRA-55 dataset (see the example shown in
Figure 9). The latest comprehensive information on thedatasets and related elements available on iTacs is provided at
http://extreme.kishou.go.jp/tool/itacs-tcc2015/elements.ht
ml (Figure 10).
TCC welcomes user requests and feedback regarding
iTacs toward the improvement of its functions and further
assistance for the climate services of NMHSs, such as
their formulation of analysis information on extreme climate events, climate monitoring and one-month forecasts.

Figure 8 Annual change for the number of iTacs users

Figure 10 Page layout for list of datasets and elements available
on iTacs(Kazuto Takemura, Tokyo Climate Center)

Figure 9 Example of top page layout and charts of iTacs
The example shows parameter settings of monthly 350-K potential vorticity (units: PVU) in August 2016.

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TCC Activity Report for 2016
In 2016, the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) continued to support the climate services of NMHSs in Asia-Pacific countries
by providing and enhancing data and products, holding
training seminars, dispatching experts and hosting visitors.

Using probability values in the ENSO outlook supports
expression of the likelihood of the onset, persistence andend of ENSO events with greater precision than simple
expressions and users are also provided with information
on probability changes or tendencies compared to the previous month’s outlook.
These probabilities are based on output from the JMA’s
ENSO prediction model (JMA/MRI-CGCM2), which is
also
used
for
three-monthprediction
andwarm-/cold-season prediction. The model is operated as a
51-member ensemble prediction system, and probabilities
are essentially calculated as ratios of variables used to predict each event (El Niño, La Niña or ENSO-neutral conditions) before being calibrated using data from the 30-year(1981 – 2010) re-forecast experiment.

1. Enhancement of data/products/tools on the TCC
website
1.1 Renewed statistical products regarding the impactsof tropical SST variability on the global climate
systemSea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropics
can significantly impact on the global climate throughatmospheric circulation. El Niño/La Niña events, which
are identified by SST fluctuations from the central to theeastern equatorial Pacific (NINO.3), are widely-known
examples of this. In addition, SST variability in the western tropical Pacific (NINO.WEST) and the tropical Indian
Ocean (IOBW) may also have significantly affect climate
conditions around the world. In January 2016, TCC has
updated a part of its web pages that host investigation results on impacts of tropical sea surface temperature (SST)
variability on the global climate and atmospheric circulation. The renewed products show statistical relationships
between warmer/cooler SST events in the areas of
NINO.3, NINO.WEST (i.e., El Niño/La Niña events) andthe tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) and the global climate
system. The analysis is based on surface observation data,
the COBE-SST analysis dataset produced by JMA, JMA’s
latest reanalysis dataset (JRA-55) and satellite observation
data for outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). The periodof the analysis was from 1958 through 2012 (55 years).
See the web page of “Global climate” and “AtmosphericCirculation” for more details on data and methodology.

1.3 Revamp of TCC website
In March 2016, the Center revamped its website to improve user accessibility and operability. Users can now
more easily access periodically updated products via the
new Latest Update section on the left of the page. Positioning the mouse pointer over a window shows a key figure of each product and a related link. This upgrade provides users with convenient access to monthly, seasonallyand annually updated products.
The update also provides brief introductions and links tomajor recommended products including iTacs (Interactive
Tool for Analysis of the Climate System), long-range
fore-cast products from the Global Producing Center (GPC
Tokyo), Monthly Discussion on Seasonal Climate Outlook,
El Niño Outlook, ClimatView (a worldwide CLIMAT
viewer), and TCC News. TCC updates such as productlaunches and TCC News releases are also provided on theupper right of the screen.

1.2 Incorporation of ENSO Forecast Probabilities into
the El Niño Outlook
Forecast probabilities for the onset, persistence and endof ENSO events (El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-neutral
periods) were incorporated into the TCC El Niño Outlook
in August 2016 for added clarity.
Specifically, information on ENSO event outlooks contained in the lead part and the main body now includes
probability values regarding ENSO event onset and otherconsiderations. By way of example, the second lead part of
the El Niño Outlook in July (before the update) was asfollows:
 La Niña conditions are less likely to develop during
boreal summer than in the previous month’s prediction; La Niña onset is more likely to occur in boreal
autumn.
With the new forecast probability information, the lead
would be:
 The likelihood of La Niña conditions developing
during boreal summer is 40%, which is lower than in
the previous month’s prediction.
 Despite a 40% likelihood that ENSO-neutral conditions will persist until boreal autumn, it is more likelythat a La Niña event will begin to develop in autumn(60%).

TCC News

2.

Capacity development
TCC holds annual training seminars as part of capacity-development activities related to its role as an RCC in
RA II. In addition to running annual training seminars, italso arranges expert visits to and hosts visitors from
NMHSs to support exchanges of views on climate services
and the effective transfer of technology.
2.1 Training seminar
TCC hold a training seminar in its each fiscal year from
April to March. In 2016, TCC held a seminar in November, with primary mode of global climate variability andregional climate as the subject. Details of the event arereported in TCC News No. 46.
2.2 Expert visits and other follow-up activities
TCC experts visited the National Center ofHy-dro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) of Viet Nam
in April and the Department of Meteorology (DOM) of
Cambodia in August, to hold a follow-up seminar on
one-month forecasts using the statistical downscaling technique and in the basic operation of TCC’s Interactive Tool
for Analysis of the Climate System (iTacs). The visits wereplanned as follow-up to the TCC training seminar held in

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No. 47 | Winter 2017

November 2015, and also provided an opportunity for
NCHMF and DOM to discuss future co-operation withTCC (TCC News No. 44 and TCC News No. 45).
Other follow-up to previous TCC training seminars included hosting visiting experts at TCC and conducting
teleconferences to provide technical support.

5.

Staff changes
Dr Kazutoshi Onogi, who served as the head of TCC in
2015, transferred to the Planning Division of the Japan
Meteorological Agency on 1st April to work as Senior
Coordinator for Research and Development. He was succeeded by Mr Kiyotoshi Takahashi, who previously
worked on the development of JMA’s long-term reanalysis data and long-range forecast models.

3. International meetings
3.1 Regional Climate Outlook Forums
RCCs are expected to actively contribute to discussions
in Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs). In 2016,
TCC experts participated in the following RCOFs in Asia:- Twelfth session of the Forum on Regional Climate
Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional
Association II (FOCRA II) held in Guangzhou, China,
from 7 to 9 April- Eighth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) held in Colombo, Sri Lanka, from 25
to 26 April- Ninth session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-5) held in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar, from27 to 28 September- Fourth session of the East Asia winter Climate Outlook
Forum (EASCOF) held in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, from
8 to 9 November

6. Plans for 2017
Contribution to the Global Framework for Climate Services(GFCS)
RCCs are expected to play a major role in the implementation of the GFCS. TCC plans to further strengthen
its activities and lead RA II’s contribution to the Framework. Such activities include the provision of further assistance to NMHSs for better climate services, as well as
maintenance and updating of the portal site for the Pilot
Project on Information Sharing on Climate Services.
New/upgraded data, products and tool development
TCC plans to implement a major upgrade of its Seasonal Ensemble Prediction System for operational one-monthforecasting by spring 2017.
To leverage the JRA-55 long-term reanalysis dataset,
investigation on teleconnection indices (e.g., the Arctic
Oscillation Index) is being conducted to enhance monitoring of atmospheric circulation. TCC plans to publish
the investigation results and the indices on its website in2017. In addition to its work on the above-listed products
and tool, TCC is making efforts to develop information/products based on the Standard Precipitation Index(SPI) toward better monitoring of droughts worldwide.

TCC attendees gave presentations on seasonal predictions
based on JMA’s numerical model and participated in discussions toward the formulation of a consensus statement
on regional forecasts.
3.2 Other meetings
In 2016, TCC head Mr Kiyotoshi Takahashi and TCC
expert Mr Atsushi Goto attended the fourth session of theManagement Committee of the Intergovernmental Board
on Climate Services held in Darmstadt, Germany, to contribute to the implementation and management of GFCS.
Mr Goto also took part in the Developers’ Meeting on
GFCS-Relevant Climate Data, Products, and Tools held in
Geneva, Switzerland, in December.

Capacity development
In the last quarter of the year, TCC will hold its annual
training seminar with a dozen invited experts as attendees.
The Center will also continue to dispatch experts to
NMHSs as necessary and host visitors from NMHSs uponrequest.
Hosting of EASCOF
In autumn, TCC will host the fifth session of the East
Asia Winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF) with theparticipation of experts engaged in climate services at
NMHSs and researchers from China, Japan, Mongolia andthe Republic of Korea. At the event, the climate conditions of the previous season will be reviewed, and thecurrent status of the climate system as well as the seasonal
Asian winter monsoon forecast for winter 2017/2018 will
be discussed.

4.

Publications
TCC has published its newsletter (TCC News) on aquarterly basis since 2005. The publication is intended toenhance communication and provide information to
NMHSs and related communities about recent TCC developments, events and activities as well as details of theCenter’s reports on the state of the climate, monitoring
results and outlooks. In 2015, TCC News Nos. 43 – 47
were issued and made available on the TCC website.
Other English-language publications related to the climate, such as Climate Change Monitoring Report 2015
and Annual Report on the Climate System 2015, werealso published on the TCC website.

(Kiyotoshi Takahashi, Head, Tokyo Climate Center)

Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), Japan Meteorological Agency
Address: 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
TCC Website: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html

Any comments or inquiry on this newsletter and/or the TCC
website would be much appreciated. Please e-mail to
tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.
(Editors: Kiyotoshi Takahashi, Atsushi Goto
and Yasushi Mochizuki)

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