Proceedings of the Thirty-second (2022) International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference
Shanghai, China, June 5–10, 2022
Copyright © 2022 by the International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE)
ISBN 978-1-880653-81-4; ISSN 1098-6189

www.isope.org

Research on the drift prediction method of the aircraft wreckage at sea
Haiwen Tu1, 2, 4, Lin Mu1, 3, , Xiaodi Wang1, 2, , Hao Qin1, 2, 4, Yan Li1, 3
1. Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou), Guangzhou, China
2. College of Marine Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, China
3. College of Life Science and Oceanography, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen, China
4. Shenzhen Research Institute, China University of Geosciences, Shenzhen, China

China. A piece of marine debris, later confirmed to be a flaperon fromflight MH370 by the French prosecutor, was found on Réunion Island in
the western Indian Ocean on 29 July, 2015. After the incident, scholars
from various countries actively carried out the simulation of the drift
trajectory of the wreckage of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, such as
Gao et al. (2016) established a drift trajectory prediction model for thetarget in the Southern Indian Ocean based on Leeway drift theory andMonte Carlo method, and used three sets of leeway coefficients to predictthe drift trajectory of the target for 500 days. The prediction results are
generally consistent with the results of surface drift buoy trajectory
analysis, indicating that the performance of the drift trajectory prediction
model is reliable. Jansen et al. (2016) proposed a numerical simulation
using high-resolution oceanographic and meteorological data to predictthe movement of floating debris in the accident. Different models werechosen for different starting positions and wind drag parameters, andthese models were combined into a superensemble to predict thedistribution of debris at different moments in time. Durgadoo et al. (2021)
used ocean currents simulated by a state-of-the-art ocean circulation
model combined with the surface Stokes drift to determine the possible
paths of debris. The results demonstrate the importance of Stokes drift
and the object buoyancy properties for the simulation of drift trajectories.

ABSTRACTIn recent years, air crashes have occurred frequently. The search foraircraft wreckage is the top priority after a crash. However, naturalfactors such as winds, currents and waves at sea promoting the wreckage
to drift make the search task daunting. A good drift prediction model canaccurately calculate the drift trajectory of a wrecked target in the marine
environment and improve the success rate of maritime search operations.
The purpose of this paper is to explore the accuracy of three drift
prediction models for calculating the drift trajectories of wreckage at sea,
and to make a comprehensive evaluation. First, the characteristics andprinciples of three drift prediction models are introduced, including theAP98 leeway model, the dynamics drift model and the improved drift
prediction model. Then, the drift parameters of the three drift prediction
models are fitted using least squares regression based on the measured
data obtained from the wreckage drift experiments conducted in theSouth China Sea. Finally, the drift trajectories of the wreckage at sea arecalculated using the three drift prediction models respectively in
combination with Monte Carlo technique, and the simulated trajectories
are compared with the actual drift trajectories to find the best drift model
applicable to the drift trajectory prediction of the wreckage at sea. The
research in this paper has important guiding significance for the searchand rescue (SAR) of the wreckage at sea.

KEY WORDS:

In the study of floating debris at sea, Maximenko et al. (2018) used a setof five ocean models to simulate the movement of floating objects causedby the 2011 tsunami in Japan and showed different drifting paths withdifferent wind condition. Kubaota (1994) studied the accumulation
mechanism of floating marine debris in the North Pacific, especiallynorth of the Hawaiian Islands. Simulations of surface currents composedof Stokes drift, Ekman drift and geostrophic currents show that marine
debris accumulates north of the Hawaiian Islands. Other scholars havealso studied the drift path and final accumulation area of floating debris
in the ocean. For example, Martinez et al. (2009) determined that debris
in the South Pacific eventually reached the eastern center of the South
Pacific subtropical circulation, and Dobler et al. (2019) believed thatconsidering the impact of Stoke drift on floating debris, the debrisaccumulation area in the southern Indian Ocean will eventually move toMaritime search and rescue; Aircraft wreckage; Driftprediction model

INTRODUCTION
When an aircraft crashes at sea, the fuselage will fall into pieces, someof which will sink to the bottom of the sea, while others will float on thesurface because they are less dense than seawater. Finding these floating
debris for the crash area to determine as well as the search for the blackbox is of great help. Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 disappeared on 8March 2014, while flying from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, to Beijing, Corresponding author: Lin Mu
 Corresponding author: Xiaodi Wang

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