Research Trends and Results

Development of Tsunami Evacuation Safety
Evaluation Method Aiming at Improvements for Safe
Urban Districts
IWAMI Tatsuya, Senior Researcher
TAKEYA Shuichi (Dr. Eng.), HeadConstruction Economics Division, Research Center for Land and Construction Management(Key words)

Tsunami evacuation, Simulation, Improvement for urban districts

1. Foreword
In the Great East Japan Earthquake, the importance ofcountermeasures against tsunami was highlighted due tothe multitude of deaths that occurred. However, thetsunami evacuation safety evaluation method based onaspects of urban district improvements cannot be said tohave sufficiently been deliberated.
NILIM has been dealing with the development of thetsunami evacuation safety evaluation method necessary
for planning urban district improvement projects, and weshall herewith introduce the outline of the research andthe perspective of R&D (research and development) for
the future centering on the tsunami evacuation simulator
being deliberated as its series.
2. Outline of the tsunami evacuation safety
evaluation method
The tsunami evacuation safety evaluation method isformulated by deliberating the following three items.
・Development of tsunami evacuation simulator
・ Development of method to identify places/factors
disturbing evacuation
・Development of planning methods
Of these, the tsunami evacuation simulator is a programto pursue solutions as to whether each person in a region
can reach a safety shelter by calculating their evacuation
behavior, maximally utilizing existing research results(fire evacuation models, vehicle transport models, andtsunami retroaction models). We have been carrying out
deliberations introducing new knowledge andtechnologies. (Figure 1)
Development of tsunami evacuation simulator
Input
Terrain / Road network / Building / Evacuation facilities /Time /Inhabitants (visitors) / Tsunami condition / Fire condition, etc.

Tsunami evacuation simulator
Improvement

New
development

for existing modelFireevacuation
model

Evacuation
behavior
model basedon actual
state

Vehicletransport
model

Functions for
identify
Evacuation
disturbing
places / factors

Tsunamiretroaction
model

OutputEvacuation disturbing places / evacuation disturbing factors

Development of method to
identify places / factorsdisturbing evacuation

3. Tsunami evacuation simulator
As a calculation model for evacuation behavior, indecision-making for evacuation commencement /destination selection / transferring route selection,
evacuation is initiated at a point when an evacuation risk
by tsunami and fire is in excess of a set level, so weestablished an evacuation behavior model making it abasic point to select destinations and transfer routes withminimal risks, and have prepared a program coordinatedwith tsunami retroacting calculation results and fire,building collapse and the like. (Figure 2, 3)
Evacuation
destination

Evacuation
destination
Heat reception
by fire●Preference
Preference fordestination, evacuation
initiation time,subservience, etc.

Blockage ofroads bybuilding
collapse●Situation ofperiphery

Starting point
Tsunami- Congested situation,- Fire situation,- tsunami situation,- acquisition ofevacuation direction,etc.

●Knowledge- Evacuation route of normal situation- Expected result of Tsunami damage- Information about evacuation route thathas been already passed- Location that is closed- Congested situation- Shelter filled with people

With assessment of thesituation individually,
evacuees decide theaction.

● Physical characteristics- Walking speed,- Passable unevenness,
inclinations,etc.

Figure2: Conceptual chart for evacuation behavior model

Areas where thetsunami has reached

Evacuees
Before the start ofthe evacuation
During evacuation
During evacuation(Congestion)

Evacuees’ behavior changing every moment
calculating by the tsunami evacuation simulator
Deliberation for
identifying/calculation method-Accumulation of evacuees / congested places-Multiply occurring areas of dead and wounded-Shelters’ capacity insufficient places-Important routs in view of evacuation and so on

Development of planning
methodMenu for the elimination of evacuation
disturbances- New construction / width enlargement forevacuation routes- Relocation to uplands- Expansion of shelters- Making roadside buildings earthquake
resistant / noncombustible- Doubling of key routs, and others

Combine these items, put priority order anddeliberate effect verification or the like.

Figure1: Research composition of development fortsunami evacuation safety evaluation method

Figure 3: Calculation examples
4. Conclusion
We have carried out the development of an evacuation
simulator with consideration to risks of tsunami, fire orthe like. In the future, we will verify the effectiveness ofthe simulator in the design process of urban district
improvement, as well as incorporating calculations forevacuation behavior using vehicles.
[Reference]
IWAMI Tatsuya, TAKEYA Shuichi, KIUCHI Nozomu:

Fundamental Study of Evacuation Safety Assessment
Method in Accordance with the Tsunami Evacuation
Risk,, Proceedings of Infrastructure Planning, Vol.48,November 2013.