WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION________________________COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1(17. XI. 2005)__________

INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEEFOR THORPEX
Fifth Session

Item: 2.2.1
Original: ENGLISH

Melbourne, Australia
30 November – 2 December 2005
GIFS-TIGGE DEVELOPMENTS(Submitted by Philippe Bougeault (co-chair of the GIFS-TIGGE WG))

Summary and purpose of the document
Report from the first meeting of the GIFS-TIGGE Working Group
Decision/Actions required
For information and decision on formal approach to be taken to establish the TIGGE Data
Bases
Financial Summary
None
Reference
NoneCAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1, p. 2

CHAIRMAN’S REPORT ON THE FIRST MEETING OF THE GIFFS-TIGGE WORKINGGROUP(NCAR, Boulder, Colorado- 15-16 November 2005
The First Session of the GIFS-TIGGE Working Group took place at the National Centre for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder Colorado (15-16 November 2005). The Agenda forthe session and a list of participants is attached in appendices A and B.
This report is concentrated on the following topics.
¾ Establishment of the TIGGE Data Bases¾ The relationship between THORPEX and NAEFS¾ The links between the GIFS-TIGGE Working Group and other THORPEX WGs¾ The establishment of cooperation with the WCRP Task Force on Seasonal Prediction(TFSP)
A full report of the session will appear in due course.
1.

Establishment of the TIGGE Data Bases

1.1

Background

TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble, is a key component of the
WMO’s THORPEX World Weather Research Programme to accelerate the improvements inthe accuracy of 1-day to 2-week high-impact weather forecasts.
The first TIGGE workshop was held on 1-3 March 2005 in the ECMWF. Sixty scientists,from international organizations, national and regional meteorological and hydrologicalservices, universities and private companies, attended the workshop. The workshop
discussed the scientific aims, user requirements and infrastructure for TIGGE data bases
and Centres. The report of the workshop has been posted on the WMO website and has
been published in the WMO series WMO/TD-No. 1273 WWRP/THORPEX No. 5. Threecentres (CMA, ECMWF and NCAR) have indicated willingness to become TIGGE Data
Centres.
The key objectives of TIGGE are:
¾ Enhanced international collaboration between operational centres and universities on
the development of ensemble prediction¾ Development of new methods of combining ensembles of predictions from different
sources and of correcting for systematic errors (biases, spread over-/underestimation)¾ Increased understanding of the contribution of observation, initial and model
uncertainties to forecast error¾ Increased understanding of the feasibility of employing, operationally, an interactive
ensemble system which responds dynamically to changing uncertainty (including theuse of adaptive observing, variable ensemble size, on-demand regional ensembles)
and which exploits new technology for grid computing and high-speed data transfer

CAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1, p. 3
¾ Evaluation of the elements required of a TIGGE Prediction Centre to produce
ensemble-based predictions of high-impact weather, wherever it occurs, on all
predictable time ranges¾ Development of a prototype future Global Interactive Forecasting System
To achieve TIGGE’s key objectives, it is necessary to:¾ Determine the user requirements for TIGGE data, including the types, volumes,
format of data, access methods and timeliness¾ Design the TIGGE infrastructure to meet these requirements¾ Determine resource requirements and secure necessary funding if required¾ Establish commitments from data contributors, TIGGE archive centres andprospective users¾ Implement proposed infrastructure, collecting, archiving, and providing access to
TIGGE data
¾ Develop and maintain close links with TIGGE users, including other THORPEX subprogrammes, field campaigns and Demonstration Projects, as well as other partners¾ Have the flexibility to respond to evolving user needs as scientific understanding
increases during the project
Data sharing between TIGGE users:¾ Ensemble forecasts generated routinely (often operationally) at different centres
around the world - the core data of the TIGGE archive; initially, the total daily data
volume is expected to be around 200GB¾ Observational data and existing datasets including re-analyses and re-forecasts¾ Additional special datasets generated for specific research projects and applications
Data policy:¾ TIGGE data should be available to all users for research purposes¾ Consideration needs to be given to the issue of real-time access to data, in particularfor demonstration projects and field experiments¾ The process of obtaining approval for data access should be transparent, streamlined and reasonably fast
¾ The user interface for access to the central archives should be user-friendly andshould make it as easy as possible for researchers in disciplines not used to dealing
with exceptionally high data volumes to obtain subsets of data
¾ Open-source sharing of post-processing software (calibration, combination, decisionmaking) should be promoted in order to maximise benefit for both researchers andend-users
TIGGE should provide real-time support for:
¾ International Polar Year field campaigns in 2007-2008¾ Beijing 2008 Olympics WWRP Research and Development project¾ Regional and global experiments on the enhanced disaster management systems,
including those initiated in the framework of Multi-Hazard Strategy¾ Other major campaigns – users of TIGGE, which should be yet identified

CAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1, p. 4
The TIGGE infrastructure will be developed in two phases:¾ Phase-1 - during which data are collected in near-real time (via internet ftp) at asmall number of central TIGGE data archives; this can be implemented now at little
cost and could handle the estimated 200 GB per day data volumes with current
network and storage capabilities¾ Phase-2 - during which data archives are distributed over a number of repositories,
instead of all being held centrally, but efficient and transparent access to users ismaintained; this is a more flexible solution with the potential to eliminate routine
transfers of large data volumes; however, this will require substantial softwaredevelopment over a number of years, in coordination with the WMO Information
System, and will require additional funding
In 2005:¾ Development of Phase-1¾ Secure commitment from institutions willing (currently there are offers from CMA,ECMWF and NCAR) to act as central data archives for TIGGE’s Phase-1 and frominitial contributors to the TIGGE database¾ Agreement on data exchange protocols and data formats¾ Finalise a first list of datasets and parameters to store in the TIGGE archive andprovide access¾ Help and encourage contributing centres to begin development to provide data inagreed formats¾ Address data access policy, including consideration of requirements for real-timeaccess, particularly for field campaigns and demonstration projects¾ Consider the strategy required to initiate work on Phase-2 of TIGGE, including
funding and resources¾ Work within THORPEX and with external partners to develop detailed planning forthe first real-time demonstrations using the TIGGE infrastructure (including
evaluation of potential use during the IPY and the Beijing Olympics)
In 2006:¾ TIGGE data centres will begin collecting available data in near-real time
¾ Links will be available to other established data archives¾ Link with the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), which is planned
to become fully operational by March 2006
¾ Research access will be available to TIGGE data (through the existing accessinfrastructure of the archive centres)¾ Work will begin on Phase 2 software developments (once required funding is secured)
1.2

Content of the TIGGE Data Archives and Data exchange proceduresTechnical meetings for the representatives of potential TIGGE Data Centres and for
Providers of global ensemble data were held at ECMWF during the autumn and reports fromthese meetings were reviewed during the first session of the GIFS-TIGGE WG.

CAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1, p. 5

The following tables contain the lists, as agreed by the working group, of variables to bearchived in the common TIGGE database. The proposed content encompasses basically all
variables identified for ensemble exchange between MSC and NCEP, that in NAEFS.
Entries that are highlighted are additional to those proposed in the report of the first TIGGE
workshop. The format and the exchange procedures were also agreed by the WG.
Surface Fields
Parameter
Mean sea level pressure
Surface Presure
10m U-velocity
10m V-velocity
Surface air temperature
Surface air dew point temperature
Surface air max temperature
Surface air min temperature
Total precipitation (liquid+frozen)
Snow fall
Snow depth
Total cloud cover
Total column water
Surface latent heat flux
Surface sensible heat flux
Surface solar radiation
Surface thermal radiation
Sunshine duration
Convective available potential energy
Sea surface temperature
Soil moisture
Soil temperature
Outgoing Long wave radiation
Convective Inhibition
Single level PV field
Orography (Geopotential at the surface)
Land-sea mask

Output frequency
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h

Accum
Inst
Inst
Inst
Inst
Inst
Inst
det_lodet_loacc_stacc_st
Inst
Inst
inst
acc_stacc_stacc_stacc_stacc_stinst

inst: instantaneous output; det_lo: determined over period from last output time to current
output time; acc_st: accumulated over period from start of forecast to current output time (oralternatively accumulated from last output time to current output time; to be decided)
Upper air fields
It is proposed to archive 5 parameters on 9 pressure levels, i.e. 45 fields.
Parameter
Temperature
Geopotential
U-velocity
V-velocity
Specific Humidity

Output frequ.
6h
6h
6h
6h
6h

at levels 1000, 925, 850, 700, 600, 500, 300, 250, 200 hPa.

Comments
Inst
Inst
Inst
Inst
Inst

CAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1, p. 6
1.3

Potential Data Providers of operational Global Data

Representatives from a number of forecasting centres attended the March workshop and thefirst session of the Working Group and expressed interest in providing global data to the
TIGGE archives. The table below summarizes these expressions of interest. It does notconstitute a commitment of theses centres, nor does it constitute a full survey of the potential
providers of global data.
Centre
BMRC
CPTEC
UKMO
Meteo-France
MS Canada
KMA
ECMWF
CMA
NCEP
JMA
FNMOC
1.4

Informal commitment madesession of the Working GroupNot present
Yes
Yes
Not present
Yes
Yes
Yes
Not present
Yes
Yes
Yes

at

first

Data Archiving Centres

Three centres, CMA, ECMWF and NCAR, have offered to provide central data archives for
TIGGE’s Phase-1 and all three centres have been actively involved with many of the Data
Providers in developing the technical plans for the implementation of the project. In addition
to providing archive services, the ECMWF has offered to maintain the TIGGE web site andNCAR has offered to hold and update the Meta Data describing the content of the archive.
1.5

Usage

The TIGGE data will be used to support a wide variety of research and development:¾ Verification studies¾ Predictability Research¾ Creation of probabilistic forecast products¾ Support for demonstration projects
The WG reviewed the potential usage of the TIGGE data base and came to the conclusionthat many data requests will concern time series at single geographical points, or retrieval ofa single-parameter field on a limited-area, latitude-longitude grid. The archive centres willorganize the data archive in such a way that such simple requests can be handled withmaximum efficiency.
Concerning verification, it was agreed that the Joint Working Group on Verifications (under
WGNE and WWRP) will be asked to serve as a resource group to issue guidance for theverification of TIGGE products. Many results will be displayed on the Internet Site
maintained by JMA as a contribution to the activities of the ET-EPS of the CBS. In addition
to operational ensemble forecasts, it is expected that specific numerical experiments will be
proposed by the THORPEX scientific community for limited periods. The TIGGE data bases
will be used to archive and distribute results from these experiments.

CAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1, p. 7
1.6

Data Policy and access arrangements

It is proposed that Data Providers supply their products to the Archive Centres under anagreed set of rules, which will include re-distribution rights. Access to the archives will be
provided for Research and Education through a simple electronic registration process which
will check for valid e-mail addresses and secure an acknowledgment of that the data will be
used for research purposes only. Archive Centres will be asked to maintain a record ofregistered users.
Under the simple registration process, access to archived data will be given with a delay of
48 hours after initial time of the forecast (defined as the reference time of data in GRIB2).
It is also anticipated that when the archives are “up and running”, real time support will be
required for a number of THORPEX projects. Such requests for access in real-time will behandled by the THORPEX IPO.
1.7

Action required of the ICSC

It is requested that the ICSC adopt the Data Policy and access arrangements set out insection 1.6 above and instruct the Manager of the IPO to:¾ seek formal agreement from CMA, ECMWF and NCAR to act as TIGGE Data
Centres¾ obtain commitments from Data Providers
It is assumed that such agreements and commitments will be obtained by the office of theSecretary General of WMO.

CAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1, p. 8
2.

Relationship between NAEFS & THORPEX

Coordination with NAEFS has been discussed at all TIGGE meetings. The NAEFS will
provide operational products based on ensemble forecasts from NCEP, CMC, and possibly
other forecasting centres in the future. NAEFS products will not be archived for external
access. The formats and the list of fields agreed for the TIGGE data bases are very close to
the fields exchanged under the NAEFS. There is a general feeling that NAEFS and TIGGE
are fully complementary and that the liaison between the two projects is satisfactory.
3.

Links between the GIFS-TIGGE Working Group and other THORPEX Working
GroupsRepresentatives from the PDP, DAOS, OS,and SEA WGs attended the GIFS-TIGGE WG
meeting and presented the status of the work in their respective WGs. The GIFS-TIGGE
WG appointed one of its members (Dr. Mark Roulston) as a liaison with the SEA WG.
Further links will be established during the “kick-off” workshop to be held in March 2006.
4.

Links between THORPEX and the WCRP Task Force on Seasonal Prediction

A representative from the GIFS-TIGGE WG attended the initial workshop of the WCRP Task
Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP), and presented the TIGGE project. Commonalities
between TIGGE and the emerging project for coordinated experimentation in seasonal
forecasting under the TFSP were stressed, and the TFSP invited TIGGE to appoint a
member as permanent liaison. Dr. Pedro Silva Dias has accepted to take this duty.
5.

TIGGE Phase 2

The objective of Phase 2 of TIGGE will be to continue the same archiving and distribution
service as in Phase 1, involving databases distributed in a larger number of centres, withtransparent access for all users. Phase 2 was discussed at the meeting, and a number ofdata providers expressed interest in developing an archive and distribution service for
TIGGE under Phase 2. Some partners also declared their interest in providing a regional
distribution service for subsets of data covering certain geographical areas. It was generally
agreed that Phase 2 will require new software tools, the development of which will require
specific funding. The partners of the TIGGE project will explore a number of possibilities tosecure this necessary funding.
6.

GIFS development

Finally the WG discussed possible steps towards the GIFS. The provision of TIGGE data tofield experiments on adaptive observations was considered a powerful way to progress
towards the objectives of the GIFS, in order to further develop targeting techniques. Phase
2 of TIGGE will enable more rapid distribution of the ensemble forecasts, which may evolve
towards real-time distribution at a later stage, and is also a notable step towards the GIFS.
Finally the importance of defining standard formats for limited-area ensemble forecasts wasnoted, together with the opportunity offered by the WWRP projects Beijing08 and MAP DPhase to implement rapidly these formats. It was agreed that the WG will work in thisdirection in 2006.

CAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1, p. 9
Appendix 1

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION________________________COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
THORPEX ICSC
GIFS-TIGGE Working GroupFirst Meeting

CAS/THORPEX ICSC
GIFS-TIGGE-01/
Doc.1.2 (1)_rev1(4.XI.2005)__________
Item: 1.2

Mesa site, NCAR, Boulder, USA
15-16 November 2005

Original: ENGLISHPROVISIONAL AGENDA AND TIMETABLE
Tuesday 15 November
08.30 Continental Breakfast
09.00 – 12.45 Sessions 1 and 2

1.

ORGANISATION OF THE MEETING
1.1. Opening of the meeting
1.2. Adoption of the agenda
1.3. Working arrangements for the meeting

2.

REPORT BY THE DIRECTOR OF THE IPO (DB)3.

REPORT FROM THE TECHNICAL MEETINGS (PB)

14.00 – 17.30 Sessions 3 & 4
4.

CONTENT OF THE FIRST TIGGE DATA BASE – PHASE 1 (PB)

5.

COMMITMENTS – TO THE TIGGE DATA BASES (General discussion)

6.

NAEFS (ZT)18.00 - Reception-.Wednesday 16 November
08.30 Continental Breakfast
09.00 – 12.45 sessions 5 & 6
7.

VERIFICATION (BB)8.

DATA POLICY AND ACCESS ARRANGEMENTS (General discussion)

CAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1, p. 10

9.

USER INTERFACE AND PRORITIES (TH)

10. REQUIREMENTS (General discussion)
10.1.
10.2.
10.3.

RESEARCH PROJECTSDEMONSTRATION PROJECTS
Most Likely Usage

11. THORPEX AND COPES (DB & MS)
11.1.

Report from the Trieste meeting on seasonal forecasting (PB)

12. PHASE 2 OF TIGGE
14.00 – 17.30 sessions 7 & 8
13. DEVELOPING GIFS
14. REPORT TO THE ICSC V MEETING IN MELBOURNE (PB & DB)
15. MEETINGS
16. ANY OTHER BUSINESS
17. REVIEW OF DECISIONS AND ACTIONS
18. THE NEXT MEETINGCAS/ICSC-5/Doc.2.2.1, p. 11
Appendix 2
List of ParticipantsWorking Group Members

Observers

Philippe Bougeault
Laurie Wilson
Waren Tennant
Richard Swinbank
Zoltan Toth
Martin Ehrendorfer
Mark Roulston
Pedro Silva Dias
Hee-Dong Yoo
Yoshiaki Takeuchi
Barbara Brown
Tom Hamill

Craig Bishop
Rolf LanglandDavid Parsons
Steve Worley
Mohan Ramamurti
Walter Dabbert
Mel Shapiro
Jeff Lazo
Jim Purdom

THORPEX IPODavid Burridge

PDP WGDAOS WG
NARC
NCAR
DPM WGOS WG
SAB
SEA WGOS WG