1Energy Security with Decarbonization Symposium 2023

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2The Energy Trilemma or 3E
EnergySecurity

Environmental
Sustainability

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Affordability

3

Diversification of Energy Supply Became Important after Oil Crises
Primary Energy Supply Trend of Japan (1955-2013)
（ ％）

600

1955

1973

2011

2013

Oil

17%

75%

44%

44%

Coal

48%

17%

23%

26%

Gas

0%

2%

23%

24%

Nuclear

0%

1%

4%0%

Hydro

27%

4%

4%

3%

Renwables

8%

1%

2%

2%

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewable

Renewable
Hydro
500

Natural Gas
Coal
400

2nd OilCrisisNuclear

Oil

Nuclear

1st Oil
CrisisNatural Gas

Coal

300

100%

Oil

Coal90%200

Nuclear

80%
24%

70%
10001955

60%

Oil1960196519701975198019851990

19952000

2005

2013

High
dependence
on imports

50%

1st2nd40%

Oil

Oil

30%

CrisisCrisis

20%

46

10%
0%

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24%

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20052013

50 years later, We are Facing the Energy Trilemma again
EnergySecurityE
Environment(環境)Environmental
Sustainability

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SG

Social
(社会)

Governance(企業統治)

Affordability

45

Crude Oil Price, Natural Gas / LNG Spot Price
Gas Pricein Europe Hit over 400 USD/BBL. Asian LNG Spot Price Hiked.
欧州ガス価格は一時原油換算400ドル超の暴騰。アジアスポットLNGも高騰。
原油（換算） USD /barrel

ガス・LNG USD / million Btu

70.00

400.00Asian LNG
Spot Price
アジアSpot
LNG価格

60.00

350.00

TTF Price (Europe)
TTF取引価格（欧州）

300.00Brent原油
Brent Crude

50.00

250.0040.00

200.0030.00
150.0020.00

100.00

10.00

IEEJ © 2023

（出所）各種資料等よりエネ研作成

APR

2022/6/1

2022/5/1

2022/4/1

2022/3/1

2022/2/1

2022/1/1

OCT2022JAN

2021/12/1

2021/11/1

2021/10/1

2021/9/1

2021/8/1

2021/7/1

2021/6/1

2021/5/1

2021/4/1

2021/3/1

2021/2/1

2021/1/1

2021
JAN

2020/12/1

2020/11/1

2020/10/1

2020/9/1

2020/8/1

2020/7/1

2020/6/1

2020/5/1

2020/4/1

2020
JAN

2020/3/1

2020/2/1

2020/1/1

0.00

50.00
0.00

6

G7: Energy Self-Sufficiency & Dependency on Russian Energy⚫ Dependency on Russia is high for Germany and Italy.
⚫ Europe is important importer for Russia (Oil: 53%, Gas:78%,Coal:35%)
Energy Self Sufficiency(2020)

JapanOil

Dependency onRussia(2020)
Coal
NaturalGas

REPowerEU• Natural Gas Reduction: Less import fromRussia. More coal use in power generation.

USACanadaRenewables

UKFranceNuclear
NaturalGasGermany
OilItaly

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Solid Fuels（Source）European Commission, SWD(2022)

73 Billion More People Need Access to Energy
Rapid World Population Increase since 20 th Century：9.7 billion：7.7＋2 billion：6.0：5.0：2.5

Source: UNIEEJ © 2023

Accelerated Reduction Needed even before 2030

NDCs OvershootAccelerationneeded2010

2030

Source: AR6 WG3 Figure SPM 4IEEJ © 2023

2050

89Basic Concept for Achieving the CN Target
EnergyUse
Energy Saving

Fossil Fuels

Expansion ofDecarbonized
Energy Use
NowIEEJ © 2023

<Regulation & Support>
Annual 1% improvement of energy intensity
Benchmark framework for industry and commercial
sectors, Top-Runner program, Fuel Economy
regulation, EV, modal shift, industrial structuralchange, energy efficiency investment
Remaining
CO2Future Technologies:

DACCS. BECCS, etc.

Expansion of use of decarbonizedenergy such as Zero Emission Power,Carbon Neutral fuels

Timeline

Source: METI

10Keep an Eye on Electricity Security
Image 電源構成のイメージof Power Generation Mix
Control of Extra Power Supply by PV(Curtailment or battery)

Power Generation

Electricity
DemandSolar
PVControlThermal
PowerBurnmoreBurn
moreControl

Control of Thermal
Power Generation

Wind, Biomass Generation
Long-term Fixed Power (Nuclear, Hydro, Geothermal)
AM
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Noon

Electricity supply anddemand must always bebalanced.
Urgent subjects aretechnical study onfrequency, voltage,transient stability, etc.
under massive
introduction of variable
power sources.

PM

出所：資源エネルギー庁、日本のエネルギー 2021年度版 「エネルギーの今を知る10の質問」に加筆

11

Crude Oil Price, Natural Gas / LNG Spot Price
Gas Pricein Europe Hit over 400 USD/BBL. Asian LNG Spot Price Hiked.
欧州ガス価格は一時原油換算400ドル超の暴騰。アジアスポットLNGも高騰。
原油（換算） USD /barrel

ガス・LNG USD / million Btu

70.00

400.00Asian LNG
Spot Price
アジアSpot
LNG価格

60.00

350.00

TTF Price (Europe)
TTF取引価格（欧州）

300.00Brent原油
Brent Crude

50.00

250.0040.00

200.0030.00
150.0020.00

100.00

10.00

IEEJ © 2023

（出所）各種資料等よりエネ研作成

APR

2022/6/1

2022/5/1

2022/4/1

2022/3/1

2022/2/1

2022/1/1

OCT

2022
JAN

2021/12/1

2021/11/1

2021/10/1

2021/9/1

2021/8/1

2021/7/1

2021/6/1

2021/5/1

2021/4/1

2021/3/1

2021/2/1

2021/1/1

2021
JAN

2020/12/1

2020/11/1

2020/10/1

2020/9/1

2020/8/1

2020/7/1

2020/6/1

2020/5/1

2020/4/1

2020
JAN

2020/3/1

2020/2/1

2020/1/1

0.00

50.00
0.00

Promotion of Nuclear Power & Renewable Power
25 countries•
USA (93)•
France (56)•
China (54)•Russia (38)•India (23)•Canada (19)•Ukraine (15)•UK (11)•
Sweden (8)Check Republic (6) ••
••
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

5 countries
••

•
•
•

Pakistan (5)•Slovakia (4)•Finland (4)•Hungary (4)•Argentina (3)•South Africa (2)Brazil (2)Bulgaria (2)Mexico (2)Netherlands (1)To Usein the Future

PV Potential（High
高 定実
格
出発力電に対効す
る率
実
発電低 量Low）

Alemannia (1)Iran (1)
UAE (2)Belarus (1)Japan

Wind Potential

Currently in Use

Korea (24)To be closed past 2080
Germany (3)Closed by 2025
Belgium (7)Closed by 2025 ➡ by 2035 or later
Chinese Taipei (4) Not specified
Switzerland (4)Not specified

12High高風力エネルギー
密度低Low

Not To Use
Korea continues toconstruct 4 new
In the Future
reactors（出所）経済産業省 貿易経済協力局「～エネルギー・電力～ 事務局資料」（資料2）第1回インフラ海外展開懇談会、2020年4月24日
Source：IAEA Power Reactor Information System, etc. (16 February 2022)
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Increase in energy demand centring on India and ASEAN

Primary energy demand outlook

Changes in primary energy demand (2020-2050)

Source: IEEJ Outlook 2022
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131

14

Coal still plays a major role in power generation, especially in Asia
❖ Power generation mix (2018)
Asia

Non-Asia

12,069 TWh14,550 TWh
CoalOthers

OthersSolar PV,Wind, etc.

Coal

NaturalGas

IEEJ © 2018

CoalIEEJ © 2023

Natural Gas

Solar PV,Wind, etc.

Solar PV, Wind, etc.

OthersCoal

Natural Gas

NaturalGas

Solar PV, Wind, etc.

Others15

Coal in Asia Increased while Coal in Non-Asia Decreased❖ Power generation mix (2020)
Asia

Non-Asia

12,567TWh

14,154 TWh
Coal

OthersOthersSolar PV,
Wind, etc.

Coal

NaturalGas

NaturalGas

IEEJ © 2018

CoalIEEJ © 2023

Natural Gas

Solar PV,Wind, etc.

Solar PV, Wind, etc.

OthersCoal

Natural Gas

Solar PV, Wind, etc.

OthersDependence on fossil fuels continues

16

Primary energy demand outlook

Source: IEEJ Outlook 2022
IEEJ © 2023

1

17Emerging Market and Developing Economies key to achieving NZ

CO2 emissions outlook by region

Energy-related CO2 emissions outlook* P :P(October 2022).

,w’ySource: IEEJ Outlook 2022
IEEJ © 2023

IEA “Wy”

118

Expectation towards Clean Hydrogen
Clean hydrogen can be produced from both fossil fuel (with CCS, blue hydrogen)and renewable energy (green hydrogen)◼ CCS is a critical process in producing blue hydrogen.
◼

2 types of Clean Hydrogen

Grey hydrogen
CO2Fossil fuelFossilH2 fuelproduction

Blue hydrogen

Emitted to the Emitted to the Emitted to theCO2CO2atmosphere
atmosphereatmosphereH2 fuel Fossil
fuel
2H2H
HFossil2production

FossilH2H fuel
2production production

CO2Green hydrogen
O2O2

O2Renewable
Renewable power
Renewable power
Renewable power
PowerfuelH 2 H2HFossil
H2H2
22 H2
H2H2
H2HWater
Water
Water
production production
production
production
production

CO2H2CO2CO
capturedutilized or stored.
capturedandor andstored.
CO2 is capturedCOandorstored.
2 isutilized
2 isutilized✓✓

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Since CO2 is emitted to theatmosphere, grey hydrogen is
not a clean fuel.
It nonetheless can play a role atthe very initial stage ofinfrastructure development.

CCS/CCUS✓✓

Large volume of hydrogen canbe produced at single location.
Minimizing CO2 emissions andsecuring CO2 storage locations
are important.

✓✓

Cost reduction is needed as it iscostlier than blue hydrogen.
Production tends to be lessstable because of theintermittency of renewable
power generation.
（Hydrogen: Important is “Carbon Intensity” not Colors
Hiroshima Leaders’ Communiqué◆ We affirm the importance of developing international standards and certification
including for a GHG calculation methodology for hydrogen production and mutual
recognition mechanism for carbon intensity-based tradability, transparency,trustworthiness and sustainability.
Variety of多様な水素の製造方法と炭素集約度
H2 Making Methods and Carbon(Well to gate)(Well toIntensitygate)

Natural Gas
Coal
NaturalBiomass Nuclear
SMR (No CO2 (93% CO2 Gas (93% (No CO2capture)
capture) CO2 Capture) (Capture)

Solar PVWindSource：Prepared by Yoshikazu Kobayashi based on IEA (2023), Towards Hydrogen Definitions based on
Their Emissions Intensity, pp39-43 （444th Research Meeting, 25 July 2023)
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19

In Conclusion

20

1. Climate Change has been the top priority in the world up to COP26 with CN declarations.
2. In 2021, many countries around the world had difficulties meeting electricity demand withsufficient power supply. Natural gas demand surged in Europe to fill in the supply shortage
and resulted in gas price hike around the world. With Ukrainian Crisis in 2022, the worldcome to recognize long forgotten geopolitical risks and importance of energy security.
3. NDCs for 2030 are not sufficient to meet the 2050 CN target unless harder efforts are to berealized beyond 2030.

4. The world needs to find a balance among 3Es or Energy Trilemma going back to the basic.
Each country needs to find own portfolio rather than just depends on one energy or on one
country. Adding nuclear as a clean option has become more relevant to many countries.
Challenges for developing countries to achieve energy transition to reach CN need to berecognized and be addressed.
5. With challenges in changing energy systems, fossil fuels still have some role during transition.
More efficient use of materials as well as energy, creation and strengthening of recycling
systems, acceleration of technology innovation such as use of hydrogen, ammonia, CCUSand CDR, and cost reduction are essential for energy transition.
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