Islamic Republic of IRAN
Ministry of Petroleum

World Oil & Gas Outlook:
Identifying the Key Factors and Driving Forces

Dr. Sajjad Khalili(Deputy Minister for Supervision on Hydrocarbon Resources)

Dr. Soleyman Ghasemian( Director General of Asia, Africa & Oceania ))The 41st JCCP International Symposium
Tokyo, 25-27 January 2023

Introduction
 For decades, long-term changes in the production and consumption ofenergy resources have been the focus of attention of energy economists.
 Since the 1970s, the uncertainties existing in energy markets, especiallyin oil markets, have been of prime practical significance.
 Given the serious concerns such as security of energy supply, lack ofinvestment in energy infrastructure, climate change, geopolitical tensions,pace of technological developments in renewables, inappropriate global
governance and government intervention, limited decarburization plans,
the outlook of global energy markets in the long run is becoming much
more sophisticated.

Overview and Key Findings This presentation is based on a study that applies mathematical principles
to quantify the rational judgments of an expert panel in social,technological, economic, environmental and political framework.
 Based on an overview of selected scenarios including IEA, WEC, BP,OPEC, SHELL, ExxonMobil etc., and the academic literature on global
energy systems, 40 Key factors are identified.
 Since the Driving Forces play significant roles in reshaping the worldenergy future, identifying these key factors of global energy system is themost important and crucial part of a energy scenarios analysis.
 In the final step, the application of cross-impact analysis identifies
10 driving forces of the global energy system using the MICMAC tool.

Share of Energy Resourcesin the World Primary Energy Supply 1900-2040
100

1.8

0.9
2.5

1.3
5

8.8

90
80

3

1

3.8

7.3
3

11.6

14.4

4.3

5.5

16
18.3

19.6

20.76
22.67

5.5
5.6

27
55

6

24
6

51

23.3

5.8

55

60

4

40.6
35.5

50

44

40

25

6

40.2
51

1116.2

4.9

19

41

70

10.7

1.1

35.1

4

31.6

30.9

30
30

37

28

30 56.9

25.7
23.8

20

24.4

22.4

27.58

25.3

24.8
22

19

100
1900

41910

1920

1930

1940

1950

Traditional biomass

Coal1960

Oil

1970

1980

Hydro

1990

2000GasNuclear

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2021

2010

6.4

643

2019

2020

2030

2040

Renew- ables

The Current Situation and Futureof World’s Primary Energy Consumption
 Over the past four decades, the world’s rapid growth in energy demand has
mainly been satisfied by fossil fuels.
 fossil fuels accounted for 82/1% of world primary energy consumption in
2021 that will reduce to 72% in 2040.
 The combined market share of oil and gas in the global primary energy
mix is expected to remain above 50% till 2045.
 The forecasts shows that renewable energies will not be able to meet thegrowing need for global energy neither in the current condition nor in thecoming decades.

Outlook for World Oil Demand Up to 2050
Selected Scenarios

2021

2030

2035

2040

2045

opec

95/2

108/4

109/5

109/8

109/8

IEA

STEPS
APS
NZE

BPAccelerated
Net Zero
New Momentum

92/6

89/88

2050

102/4

102/1

93
75/4

57/2
22/8

95/6

85/4

72/1

59

46/5

89/7

75/4

55/1

37/2

24/1

101/1

97/9

91/9

85/9

80/5

Million barrel per day (MB/D) Oil is set to retain the highest share in the global energy mix up to 2050
6

Outlook for World Gas Demand Up to 2050
Selected Scenarios

2021

2030

STEPS

4149

4372

4355

APS

4149

3874

2660

IEA

Accelerated

BPNet Zero
New Momentum

4037

2035

2040

2045

4230/13950/43606/73067/82614/33707/43042/22587/72047/4

1681/14433/54679/54888/14992/85020/4

Billion Cubic Meter per Year
(BCM/Y) Natural Gas is one of the most important players in thereliable transition period of energy.
72050

Megatrends of the Global Energy System by 2050
 Concentration of oil and gas demand growth in three regions of Asia (China,India, Indonesia, etc.), Africa and the Middle East Increasing the share of gas and renewable energy in the world's primaryenergy basket.
 The leading role of petrochemical industry in the global gas demand growth The leading role of petro refineries in the global oil demand in comingdecades.
 The significant increase in the share of LNG in the global gas trade The continuation of the economic and geopolitical importance of oil and gas in
the world in the coming decades.
 The rapid growth of investment in technologies to improve energy efficiency,carbon emission management, new clean fuels (hydrogen), etc.
8Methodology

Illustration of our four step method to reach global energy driving forces
9

The 40 Key factors of Global Energy System TheseKeyfactors
has
been
determined of global energy scenarios
in selected international studies.
10Identification of the global energy Driving Forces• Driving forces are the key factors which have strong impacts on otherkey factors but are weakly affected by the others.
• Driving forces represent all variables that can form future energy
players individually or through interaction with other factors.
• Cross-impact analysis is a method which contains a process ofscanning possible futures.
• Cross-impact analysis is a scenario design methodological approach inwhich mutual connection of a set of variables (descriptors) has beenassessed by expert judgment.

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The Direct Influences Graph of Key factors

12

The Direct Influence – Dependence Map of Key factors

13

The 10 Driving Forces of Global Energy System
1. Consumer behavior, (S)2. Technology developments in renewable, (T)3. Technology developments in petroleum upstream, (T)
4. Investment in infrastructure, (E)5. Energy efficiency, (E)6. Financial shocks, (E)7. Emerging economies GDP growth, (E)8. Climate change, (E)9. Geo-political relationships and tensions, (P)10. Global governance, (P)14Thanks For Your Kind Attention

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