WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONCOMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCESINTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEEFOR THORPEX
Eleventh Session
WMO, Geneva (15-17 July 2013)

CAS/ICSC-11/DOC2.3.5(24 VI.2013)
Item: 2.3.5

Report of GIFS-TIGGE WG(Submitted by Richard Swinbank and Masayuki Kyouda)
1.

Introduction

The GIFS-TIGGE working group was established in 2005, first to develop the TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) data set of ensemble predictions, andsecond to foster research and development on ensemble prediction and the application ofensemble forecasts in order to contribute towards a future Global Interactive Forecast
System (GIFS).
Presently, there are a large number of registered users across the three archive centres, buta more meaningful statistic is that there are at least 110 active archive users each month –see Figure 1.

Figure 1 – Time series of monthly usage of all TIGGE archive portals from January 2012
through February 2013.
2.

Meetings relevant to TIGGE and GIFS

Members of the GIFS-TIGGE working group contributed to several meetings andconferences since the ICSC10 meeting, including:
35th Hurricane Committee meeting, Curacao, April 2013
R. Swinbank attended the Hurricane meeting to represent WWRP and to present information
about future WWRP plans and recent progress on tropical ensemble forecasts and products
using TIGGE data.

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11th GIFS-TIGGE WG, Exeter, June 2013
The aims of the meeting were to review and consolidate recent progress with GIFS-TIGGE
project, and to plan for the future, after THORPEX ends in 2014. Support from the EUfunded GEOWOW project has underpinned several developments, including thecommencement of the TIGGE-LAM archive for Europe and the development of products tosupport the CBS Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP).
The future membership of the group was considered, and the proposed list of members isshown in Annex A. Annex B lists the actions that were agreed at the meeting.
3.

TIGGE activities

The TIGGE dataset is a rich resource for a range of research studies, with about 70
publications based on TIGGE data. This illustrates the increasing acceptance by universities
and funding agencies of the value of the TIGGE dataset, underlining the value of maintaining
and adding to the dataset.
Various ongoing developments of TIGGE are being supported via the GEOWOW project,funded by the European Union under the FP7 research programme. This is a 3-year project,
started in September 2011, with the main focus on the development of GEOSS (GlobalEarth Observation System of Systems) which will facilitate the multi-disciplinary use ofTIGGE data. This project is supporting ongoing developments to TIGGE, including thearchiving of TIGGE-LAM data, the improved treatment of time-series data and (if resourcesallow) the provision of data in NETCDF format as an alternative to GRIB2.
4.

Product development & support of SWFDPEnsemble forecast data in the TIGGE database provides a valuable resource to develop
prototype products to support forecasts of high-impact weather up to two weeks ahead. Theworking group established a GIFS development project to support the development ofadditional forecast products to contribute to the regional subprojects of the SWFDP. This
will enhance links between WWRP-THORPEX and the operational weather forecasting
community. With the help of funding from the GEOWOW project, products based on multimodel ensemble forecasts from the TIGGE partners are starting to come on stream tosupplement the SWFDP products available to operational forecasters in the SWFDP regions.
In order to guide future developments, a questionnaire was distributed via the SWFDP. The
results from the survey confirmed that probabilistic products focused on tropical cyclones,
heavy precipitation and strong winds are particularly important to forecasters, but otherissues including predictions of sea state also need to be addressed. The main focus offorecasters is on the short-range, underlining the need to be able to provide ensemble-based
products as close to real time as possible.
Some initial multi-model ensemble products have been developed, based on the exchangeof tropical cyclone track forecasts, using the Cyclone XML (CXML) – see Figure 2. The
exchange of CXML was initiated during the T-PARC field programme, and has been
maintained to support the SWFDP and other regional demonstration projects.
At JMA/MRI, a set of products has been developed using gridded TIGGE data to highlightthe risks of severe weather, including heavy rainfall, strong winds and extreme temperatures(Matsueda and Nakazawa, 2013). Since the products currently use data from the TIGGE
archive, they are delayed by at least 48 hours. With the help of GEOWOW funding, work isin hand to set up a real-time version of this suite of products to support the SWFDP, in a joint
project between JMA/MRI and the UK Met Office.

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Figure 2 - Multi-model ensemble tropical cyclone products, combining results from MetOffice, ECMWF and NCEP ensembles, illustrated for forecasts of hurricane Sandy with initialtime 00 UTC on 26th October 2012. Left: strike probability over next 5 days; right: ensemble
mean track from single model ensembles and grand ensemble.
5.

Proposed Continuation of the TIGGE archive

There has been strong interest from users of the TIGGE database in the continuation of theTIGGE archive and data provision after the completion of THORPEX at the end of 2014.
The ICSC10 meeting asked the GIFS-TIGGE working group to consider the number ofarchive centres and data providers that would be needed to continue with TIGGE. The
working group has concluded that at least one archive centre needs be committed tocontinue to archive TIGGE data and serve the data to users, with most of the current data
providers continuing to supply ensemble prediction data.
In order to assess the future viability we sounded out the three archive centres about theirplans; in brief their responses are:
• ECMWF plans to continue as a TIGGE archive centre. Archiving of European
TIGGE-LAM data is in progress.
• NCAR plans to stop all TIGGE archiving activities after the end of 2014. Their model
validation portal will continue to be available and can be linked to TIGGE. NCAR willcontinue to ingest, archive and serve the TIGGE CXML (tropical cyclone forecastdata).
• CMA is still assessing the future of the Beijing TIGGE archive centre.
In order to confirm their intentions, the WMO secretariat will be contacting each of thearchive centres over the next few months to invite them to continue to support TIGGE. The
secretariat will also be writing to the data providers to invite them to continue to supply
ensemble predictions to TIGGE.
The working group recognises the importance of supporting the new post-THORPEX
projects, particularly the Polar Prediction and High-Impact Weather (HIW) Projects. (TheSub-seasonal to Seasonal Project is establishing an archive of longer-range ensemble
predictions, based on the TIGGE data formats and protocols). Once the projects are
established, we will consider adding extra parameters to the TIGGE archive. We will also
review the usage of existing TIGGE parameters.
We should consider the future name of TIGGE, after the end of THORPEX. While it would
be helpful to continue with the TIGGE “brand”, we could change the reference to THORPEX,
and perhaps also to its originally-envisaged “interactive” nature. We suggest keeping theCAS/ ICSC-11/Doc.2.3.5, p. 4acronym “TIGGE” even if changing the name (to, e.g., “The International Grand GlobalEnsemble”).
6.

TIGGE-LAM

To complement the global focus of the GIFS-TIGGE WG, a TIGGE-LAM expert panel wasestablished to focus on regional ensemble forecasting.
The panel facilitates theinteroperability of the different regional modelling systems contributing and coordinates thearchiving of limited-area ensemble forecasts. The TIGGE-LAM group has established astrong working relationship with the WWRP/MWFR (Mesoscale Weather Forecasting
Research) group, but also maintains strong technical and scientific links with the GIFSTIGGE working group. The original plans for TIGGE-LAM envisaged archiving data fromlargely overlapping regional models with grid scale of 10+ km. With the recent introduction ofconvection-permitting (1-3 km) ensembles by several national met services, TIGGE-LAM is
now focusing on those higher-resolution systems (but with little, if any, overlap between
different model domains).
In 2007, the panel proposed that the three TIGGE archive centres host a sub-set of highpriority TIGGE-LAM data. With funding from the EU GEOWOW project, ECMWF is now
starting to archive European TIGGE-LAM data. At the time of writing, data is being archived
from COSMO-LEPS and ALADIN LAEF, and it is expected that data from about 10 systems
will be being archived, and available for use, by the end of the GEOWOW project in August
2014. However, there are currently no firm plans for archives of TIGGE-LAM output forregions outside Europe.
In addition to the current focus on routine archiving of high-resolution operational ensembles,
it would also be very valuable to set up archives of high resolution ensemble prediction datain conjunction with future RDPs and FDPs (for example the FROST 2014 campaign linked
with the Sochi winter Olympics), including WMO-endorsed projects outside Europe. This
standardized archiving platform would facilitate the use of these research datasets by awider scientific community and would set archiving standards for future projects.
With the completion of THORPEX at the end of 2014, it is an opportune time to consider thefuture organisation of TIGGE-LAM. We recognise that it is important for the TIGGE-LAM
dataset to address the requirements of future projects. It may be most appropriate for theHIW project team to provide scientific direction of the TIGGE-LAM dataset, since that projectwill have a particular focus on high resolution predictions. The name “TIGGE-LAM” mightalso be changed to reflect a link with the HIW project.
7.

Proposed Predictability Dynamics & Ensemble Forecasting Expert Team

Following initial discussion at the ICSC10 meeting, we are proposing that a Predictability,
Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting expert team be constituted as part of the future core
WWRP programme. The proposed expert team would provide a centre of expertise onpredictability, dynamical processes and ensemble forecasting in support of WWRP projects.
It would combine most of the scope of the current PDP working group, with the scientific roleof the GIFS-TIGGE working group. A paper on the proposed expert team has been
prepared by the co-chairs of the GIFS-TIGGE and PDP working groups, and is tabled for
discussion at the ICSC11 meeting.
References
Matsueda, M. and T. Nakazawa (2013): ‘Early warning products for extreme weather events
derived from operational medium-range ensemble forecasts’, submitted to MeteorologicalApplications

CAS/ ICSC-11/Doc.2.3.5, p. 5

Annex A: Proposed GIFS-TIGGE WG membership, for endorsement by ICSC
Richard Swinbank, co-chair,Met Office, UKMasayuki Kyouda, co-chair

JMA, Japan

Philippe Arbogast

Météo-France, France

Jiandong Gong

CMA, China

Seung-Woo Lee

KMA, Korea

Osvaldo Moraes

CPTEC, Brazil

Michael Naughton

BoM, Australia

Tiziana Paccagnella

ARPA-SIM, Italy

David Richardson

ECMWF, UK

Doug Schuster

NCAR, USA(To be nominated)

EC, Canada

Yuejian Zhu

NOAA/NCEP, USA

Laurie Wilson (EC, Canada) stood down from the group after the 11th meeting, and is due tobe replaced.

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Annex B: Actions from 10th meeting of GIFS-TIGGE WG
Permanent Actions
Action P.1: All archive centres to update statistics on TIGGE data users on an annualbasis (end of each year), using similar statistics for users, actives users, etc. Doug Schuster
to coordinate.
Action P.2: Yuejian Zhu to carry out literature search for papers based on TIGGE data on
an annual basis (end of each year), and summarise results. Archive centres to ask users toinform them when TIGGE papers are written, to enable the list of TIGGE publications to bekept up to date.
Action P.3: All data providers to provide model descriptions in agreed Excel format and toupdate the files after significant changes and send to ECMWF.
Action P.4: Co‐chairs to request reports before each WG meeting on all actions, plus
relevant progress reports.
Action P.5: Working Group members to consider adding to training material on the TIGGE
data portals, including data access and manipulation examples, to help potential users of theTIGGE archive.
Actions carried over from GIFS-TIGGE 10
Action 10.6.3: The Working Group encourages providing centres to include information onforming tropical storms in CXML messages (initially using location / time as identification andsubsequently discuss a naming convention).
Action 10.7.1: Christopher Cunningham to consult with Tiziana Paccagnella to ensuretransfer of benefits from the TIGGE-LAM work to the La Plata Basin Project
Actions from GIFS-TIGGE 11
Action 11.3.1: Yuejian Zhu to inform ECMWF of the name of technical contacts at NCEPand NCDC to liaise over the practicalities of providing the NCEP data to the ECMWF archivecentre, by end of July 2013.
Action 11.3.2: WMO secretariat to send a formal letter to NCDC by end of July 2013, toconvey appreciation of their work and to request continuation of the provision of NCEP data
to the TIGGE archive after the end of THORPEX.
Actions 11.3.3: The working group requests Christopher Cunningham and Yuejian Zhu toensure that missing data from CPTEC and NCEP is minimised by liaising with contact points
to respond to requests from archive centres to fill any gaps.
Action 11.3.4: Archive centres are requested to investigate which types of TIGGE data aremost widely used.
Action 11.3.5: JMA and CMA are requested to consider extending CXML tropical cyclone
forecast data to all ocean basins.
Action 11.3.6: WMO secretariat, in consultation with the co-chairs, to prepare letter(s) toarchive centres by October 2013, with the aim of confirming their plans regarding the futureof TIGGE in the post-THORPEX era.
Action 11.3.7: WMO secretariat, in consultation with co-chairs, to prepare a letter tocurrent data providers by October 2013 enquiring about their willingness to continue toprovide data to the TIGGE archive in the post-THORPEX era.
Action 11.3.8: Craig Bishop to approach Fleet Numerical (NRL) to sound out theirwillingness to provide data to the TIGGE archive in the future.
Action 11.3.9: Working Group members to consider & clarify the future of the TIGGE-LAM
panel after THORPEX and make recommendations to ICSC before EC-66.

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Decision: Members of the GIFS-TIGGE working group agreed in principle to the proposed
merger of the current GIFS-TIGGE WG with PDP WG as outlined in the paper by the cochairs of the two working groups.
Action 11.4.1: Co-chairs of both GIFS-TIGGE and PDP working groups to amend the paperon the proposed merger of GIFS-TIGGE and PDP groups and then submit it to the twoworking groups and table it for discussion at ICSC-11, in preparation for discussion by CAS.
Action 11.4.2: Co-chairs of both GIFS-TIGGE and PDP working groups to consider theadvantages of convening a joint working group meeting early in 2014 to consider scientificpriorities of the proposed merged group.
Action 11.4.3: Working group members to consider how TIGGE and TIGGE-LAM should
best support and contribute to the proposed High-Impact Weather project.
Action 11.6.1: Co-chairs & other co-authors to prepare a draft TIGGE review paper within
the next 6 months with intention of publishing it in BAMS.