Space Weather Operations in CMA

Haijuan ZHAONational Center for Space Weather
China Meteorological Administration, BeijingOutline Significant SW Parameters Forecast
 Forecast Platform
 SW Forecast Products2

Significant SW Parameters Forecast
Forecast type

Forecast time

Significant SW parameters

Long term

A yearSolar activity index

Mid-term

A monthSolar activity index
Solar activity indices

Short term

1-3 days

Geomagnetic
activities
Ionospheric weather

Solar activities
Warning

Severalminutes to 3days

EventsSolar 10.7 cm flux
Monthly mean sunspot number

Solar F10.7 cm flux
SSN、F10.7 cm flux、flares、SPE、CME
Storm、Ap index、Dst index
Ionospheric background, disturbances, storms、
scintillations etc.

Solar flares、SPE、CME

Geomagnetic activity

Geomagnetic storms

Ionospheric weather

Ionospheric storm、disturbances、
Scintillations

Solar activities
NowcastSmoothed monthly mean sunspot number

Solar flares、SPE、CME

Geomagnetic activity

Geomagnetic storms

Ionospheric weather

Ionospheric storm、disturbances、
Scintillations

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Forecast of Solar Activity——SSN，F107

SSN
We use the Radial Basis
Function ( RBF) neuralnetworks method to predict themonthly mean sunspot number
and the smoothed monthlymean sunspot numbers.
The product shows thepredicted monthly mean SSN(blue star), and the predictedsmoothed monthly meansunspot numbers of next threemonths (red star).
4Forecast of Solar Activity——SSN，F107

F107
The product shows thepredicted monthly mean
10.7 cm flux (blue star),and the predictedsmoothed monthly mean
10.7 cm flux of next
three months (red star) .
The RBF neural networks
method can beapplicable for the solar
activity forecast.

5Forecast of Solar Activity—— F10.7 cm Flux

Yunqiu, Tang
NCSW

Based on the statistical analysis of the relationship between the occurrence of flare withthe area of solar active region, the type of sunspot group, and the trend of 10.7 cm flux,
we developed a solar flare short term forecast tool.
6Forecast of Geomagnetic Activity——ApIndex

1

预报效率差

ARMA与 NCSW预 报 效 率 之 差
0.5

0

-0.5
03/12

04/10

05/08

06/06

07/04
年 /月

08/02

08/12

09/10

10/08

预报效率1

Based on solar wind speed data fromSTEREO observations to forecast theAp index of future 7 days.

ARMANCSW
0.5003/1204/10

05/08

06/06

07/04年 /月

08/02

08/12

09/10

10/08

Developed by Mingxian, ZHAO in 20097

Forecast of Geomagnetic Activity——
Nowcast of rH Index••SPACE WEATHER, VOL. 8, S12006,2010.

Automated generating of a sensitive
geomagnetic index in real time is necessary
for space weather operation.
Our center has developed a local rH index
nowcast system for space weather operation.
− This index is a consecutive, linear,hourly range index with 1 min resolution.
− It allows us to capture the geomagnetic
disturbance promptly and reflect thedisturbance more sensitively than
traditional Kp and Dst index.
− We also succeed in deriving Kp/Ap
indices conveniently from only a single
station data to describe the global
disturbance instead of the traditional
complicated process.
− The design of this index has been
published in the journal of space
weather.
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Space Weather Forecast Business Process
Comprehensive预报综合分析
Analysis
data
preparation
数据准备

model
calculation
模式计算

综合分析
analysis预报会商consultation

products
production
预报产品制作预报产品制作
Products Production
初步预报
pre-forecast

Products Releasing
预报产品发布网页发布Webissue

上传服务器
productsupload预报检验
Results Validating

test of模式预报
model results结果检验实际预报The final
forecast validating结果检验

Files Archiving预报记录预报存档
forecastarchiving

相关实测observation
data数据记录archiving

recordon值班记录
duty

9Forecasters auxiliary tools

According to the space weather forecast business process, We
develop a forecast platform.
10Forecasters auxiliary tools

11Image processing tools

12Forecast production tools

13Forecast production interface

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Daily/Weekly Forecast ProductsSpace Weather Review
Space Weather Forecast

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Space Weather Review (past 24hrs)

 Solar activities review••••

The activity level
Elements summary
Event description
Characteristics of event process16

Space Weather Review (past 24hrs)

 Geomagnetic activities and radiation
environment review••

We give the review of the geomagnetic activity level,parameters variation, process and cause of events.
We also outline the energetic protons and high-energy
electrons flux, and their evolution of the trend, causes
and process.

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3-day Space Weather Forecast
 Solar activity forecast•

The future 3-day solar activity level forecast , thepossibility of flare, and whether CME will induce
geomagnetic effects.

 Geomagnetic activity forecast••

The future 3–day geomagnetic activity level
forecast .
when the geomagnetic storm occur, we will
forecast the start time, strength and cause of thisstorm.

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FY-2D/E Real Time Energetic Particles
Observations by Fengyun Satellites
Proton Flux

Electron Flux

X6.9-Class Solar Flare
the third X-flare ofSolar Cycle 24.

Proton Flux

Electron Flux

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Daily Forecast Products

10.7 cm Flux Forecast

Ap Index Forecast

3-day Forecast

Review of past 24hrs

Solar Flare andSPE Probabilities

Geomagnetic Storm
Probabilities

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Space weather products

Solar and GeophysicalActivity Report and 3day Forecast

Monthly Bulletin

Weekly Bulletin

Special Bulletin

Global Preparedness for Space Weather Hazards

21National Center for Space Weather

Welcome to visit our center
when you visit Beijing !
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