WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATIONCOMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
THORPEX ICSCGIFS TIGGE Working Group
Tenth Meeting
Boulder, CO USA
25-27 June 2012

CAS/THORPEX ICSC/
GIFS-TIGGE 10 Report of themeeting__________

Original: ENGLISHREPORT OF THE MEETING

1. Organisation of the meeting
1.1. Aims of the meeting
Richard Swinbank outlined the aims of the meeting which included consolidating
and completing the work so far and looking at future arrangements post THORPEX
i.e. after 2014.There were two key aspects to the work – the first was the TIGGE
databases which were a real success. More needs to be done to expand theresearch use although this was now substantial. The second area was productdevelopment for demonstration and evaluation. The aim was to increase
collaboration with the SWFDPs. It was hoped to add new products to the SWFDP
website later in the year. Operational implementation will be, however, a matter forCBS.
1.2. Adoption of the agenda
The agenda was discussed and agreed with addition on an item (7.3) on the use of
TIGGE data in hydrology.
1.3. Working arrangements
The working arrangements were agreed.
2. Report and actions from previous meetings
2.1. Status of actions from the ninth GIFS-TIGGE meeting (R. Swinbank)
The actions were reviewed:
P1 – (archive usage statistics) updated in February
P2 – (update TIGGE references) completed
P3 – (model descriptions on website) ongoing, is now fairly up to date
P4 – (reports on previous actions) completed
9.2.1 – (contact with polar project) done
9.2.2 – (contact with subseasonal to seasonal project) done
9.2.3 – (report to WWRP/JSC on SWFDP collaboration) done
9.2.4 – (TIGGE review article) on the agenda for this meeting
9.3.1 – (supply T+0 data) ongoing
9.3.2 – (supply data to WMO lead centre on verification) completed, NCEP isstarting the work, Met Office is a little behind
9.3.3 – (invitation to join SNAP project) ongoing
9.3.4 – (add training materials to data portals) not much progress, carried over.
9.4.1 – (report from European interoperability project) carried over9.5.1 – (attend SWFDP SG meeting) done, Young-Youn Park attended

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 2
9.6.1 – (MRI questionnaire on TC website) on the agenda for this meeting
9.6.2 – (invitation to contribute products to MRI website) on the agenda for thismeeting
9.6.3 – (invite HFIP expert to WG meeting) done
9.6.4 – (use of high res models for TC intensity forecasting) email contact with CMA
and JMA has been established. Carried over.
9.6.5 – (addition of central pressure & intensity to CXML) ongoing
9.6.6 – (encourage TC forecast verification) ongoing
9.7.1 – (invite submission of La Plata basin proposal to WWRP) done
9.7.2 – (report on EPS application to hydrology) on the agenda for this meeting
9.7.3 – (documentation for severe weather products website) done
9.7.4 – (SWFDP RSMCs invited to evaluate prototype products) on the agenda forthis meeting
9.8.1 – (session on EPS improvement) done; covered by Wednesday afternoon
session
9.8.2/9.8.3 – (nominations to focus groups on TC and precipitation products) havenot been implemented, the co-chairs decided to abandon these actions due to poor
response
9.10.1 – (nomination for CPTEC representative) done

2.2 IPO update, (J. Caughey)
Jim Caughey provided an update on THORPEX activities. The main meetingschedule was outlined and the plans for ICSC 10 (Geneva 3-5 Oct) outlined. The
THORPEX progress report was being reviewed by the WWRP JSC with comments
requested by the 30th June. The THORPEX Executive Committee met in March toconsider possible post THORPEX arrangements and developed a short paper whichcontains three options for the way ahead. These were outlined and it was noted that
the EC prefers Option C.
2.3 Outcome of THORPEX ICSC-9 and EC meetings (R. Swinbank, J. Caughey)
The actions arising form the ICSC 9 for the attention of the GIFS-TIGGE WG werediscussed,
ICSC 9(11) – (strengthen links with SWFDPs and continue product development)
this is progressing in conjunction with the SWFDPs
ICSC 9(12) – (consider process for operational implementation of products) ongoing
ICSC 9(13) – (WG membership changes) done
2.4 Outcome of WWRP/JSC5 meeting (R. Swinbank, J. Caughey)
The two actions from the WWRP JSC 5 meeting for the GIFS-TIGGE WG werereviewed,
WWRP JSC 5(13) – (TIGGE archive post THORPEX) on the agenda for thismeeting
WWRP JSC 5(14) – (raise profile of TIGGE) ongoing
2.5 Outcome of SWFDP SG (R. Swinbank)Young-Youn Park attended the meeting on behalf of the GIFS-TIGGE WG and gavea presentation on ensemble TC products and other MRI products. The mainconcern of the SG was the delay in receiving the products which tended to handicap
assessment and evaluation which were best carried out nearer to real time. ThereCAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 3
were also concerns about the complexity of the information. It was better to present
only the best and most useful information. A more general questionnaire than thatdeveloped by MRI was needed for feedback purposes.
2.6 Report on THORPEX Africa RC meeting (R. Swinbank, J. Caughey)
A summary of this meeting was provided. The focus now falls on completing andpublishing the 4 case studies with the help of the THORPEX WGs. These comprisesevere flooding events across Africa, all of which had major socio-economic impacts.
Details are to be found on the AfClix website.
3. TIGGE archive
3.1. Updates from the archive centres (reps from archive centres)
NCAR: An overall summary of recent developments and data stored was given
including 220 GB CXML TC data. There is a 740 TB copy of the complete TIGGE
archive. The TIGGE model validation data portal (http://tigge.ucar.edu/modelvalidation.htm), giving access to global upper air and surface observations, hasbeen completed. A CMORPH precipitation analysis has been added. This is satellite
based and contains 3 hourly data from 2002 to the present. TIGGE data is suppliedearlier to the NCAR Research Applications Lab. for the African meningitis projectwith the approval of the IPO.
The data volume being accessed was going up but the number of active users wasstable. More people were looking at historical data and larger volumes of CXML
data were being used. Various improvements were planned – including improved
computing and better supporting services in 2013. NCAR plans to only support thelegacy data archive at the conclusion of 2014. The future of the legacy archive will
be decided in 2016. A strong case will be needed to persuade NCAR to continue
supporting ingest of new data into the archive after 2014, and to continue
maintaining the legacy data archive after 2016.
Action 10.3.1: Doug Schuster, David Richardson, Jiandong Gong to advertise
the NCAR model validation portal on the other archive data portals and TIGGE
website.
Action 10.3.2: Yuejian Zhu to establish the possibilities and practicalities ofproviding the NCEP data to the ECMWF archive centre in the event that the NCAR
archive centre ceases to function in the post THORPEX era.
ECMWF: There are around 70-80 active users of the database with similar archive
data volumes to those of NCAR. A potential future problem of expanding data
volumes as model resolutions constantly increase was flagged. It may be that thelimit of what can be moved around is approached. In discussion it was noted that if
this occured it may be possible to limit the problem by reducing the resolution of thearchived data especially at the higher levels or just to reduce the number of fields.
CMA: The LDM system has been upgraded. Missing data in the system is being
greatly reduced. New service improvements are being made especially to the
TIGGE processing software. However, further funding support from CMA is needed
for both future hardware and software developments.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 4
3.2. News from the data providers, (reps from data providers)
ECMWF: The ocean model has been changed (to NEMO) and the EPS is now
coupled to the ocean after 10 days for both the 00 as 12 UTC forecasts; no majorchanges to ensemble configuration, although the initial EDA perturbations havebeen redefined to use the EDA ensemble mean instead of the EDA control as thereference. The reforecasts have been extended from 18 to 20 years and a new
surface reanalysis is used to initialize the reforecast surface fields It was noted that
re-forecast data will be available in the new sub-seasonal to seasonal project.
Canada: There have not been any significant changes to the EPS systems. Datatransfer appears to be OK. The vertical resolution of the model is being increased.
CMA: There has been no change to the operational system. The CMA was acrtive
witin the SE Asia SWFDP. The Asian Regional Committee has now established a
TIGGE WG with a membership of 7 people and topics similar to the GIFS-TIGGE
WG. A 4th Asian THORPEX Science Symposium was planned for Kunming at theend of Oct. 2012. China was developing a position on possible post THORPEX
arrangements.
NCEP: The horizontal resolution of the model has been improved to around 5055km. As a result hurricane forecasts were improved with a 10-20% improvement intrack prediction. Initial condition improvements were responsible for another 5%
improvement. NAEFS was showing good promise with a gain of 1 day from the
combined ensemble. However, a lot of work had been devoted to setting this up
operationally although this is now regarded as justified. Bandwidth is an issue andhigh capacity lines have a high cost.
JMA: There were no changes to the EPS but a new computer was now installed.
TIGGE data was at 1.25 degrees whilst the EPS was at 0.75 degrees – so a gap
has emerged. It seems some centres have kept in line with the model resolution
whilst others have left it fixed.
CPTEC: The computer system has been upgraded to a massively parallel Cray
machine. There are no changes to the EPS system but the perturbation method isbeing improved.
BOM: AGREPS (Australian version of MOGREPS) has now been running for over 1
year in research mode using a 60km global grid, 24 members and 40 to 24 km
regionally. There is no commitment to go operational at this time. The experimental
data will not be placed in the TIGGE archive until a decision about going operationalhas been taken. The necessary support is not available at this time.
Met Office: Plans for EPS developments will be presented during the Wednesday
afternoon workshop. There are only minor planned changes to the TIGGE data withno change to resolution (60km) or the number of EPS members (24). It was notedthat an error was recently introduced, setting all the CIN output to zero; that will becorrected in due course.
KMA: In the absence of a representative from KMA, Richard Swinbank provided abrief update. The KMA global EPS now uses a higher resolution (40km) than that

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 5
used by the Met Office, with 24 members and 70 levels. Ensemble TC tracks fromthe new system were very good using an effective bogusing system.
It was noted that three Unified Model based systems will generate ensemble
forecasts for TIGGE – UKMO, KMA and (in due course) BoM.
Meteo-France: no report was available.
4. Research using TIGGE data
4.1. New reforecast dataset (T. Hamill)
The GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System) changed to T254 in Feb. 2012.
Reforecasts have been produced for 00Z with 11 members from 1984 to the present.
Archives exist at ESRL (fast access to 99 variables at 1 degree and 28 “special”
variables (e.g., surface temp and winds, precipitation) at native resolution, ~0.5
degrees) and at DOE/Berkeley Lab. (slow, tape access to the full archive). Web
links to download data from these archives are expected soon. The status is thatdaily ensemble reforecasts for 1985-2010 have been completed for u,v,q,T, etc., aswell as Northern Hemisphere hurricane tracks; 2011 and 2012 data will be available
in the next few months (real-time data is already available from NCEP via their
NOMADS server).. For the raw numerical guidance, there is a roughly 1.5 to 2.5 day
gain in skill compared with the first generation reforecasts. There is some evidenceof less accurate forecasts in the early years (1980’s) because of poorer
observations networks.
For post-processed precipitation forecasts, the gain in skill relative to first-generation
reforecasts is 1-1.5 days. Some case studies have been conducted on “atmosphericrivers” along the west coast of the US. For a case when the predictability of midlatitude cyclones was limited, the post-processed precipitation forecasts of western
US rainfall was limited at 6 days, and somewhat even at 2 days. For another casewhere there was high predictive skill of the associated cyclone, the post-processed
forecasts indicated high probabilities of an extreme rainfall event even 6 days prior.
At the DOE/Berkeley lab’s archive, the full model states are available, and for users
seeking to run regional reforecasts, these global reforecasts may be useful for
providing initial and lateral boundary conditions. An example was shown of aregional reforecast of hurricane Rita (2005), which was improved both in track andintensity in the regional reforecast.
In summary, a reforecast data set has been created for the operational NCEP GEFS.
The reforecast data set is useful for statistical calibration of the real time forecasts.
The reforecast data may be a good companion to the TIGGE data sets – useful forcomparisons e.g. multi-model versus single model with calibration.
4.2. Model dependence and an idea for post processing of multi-model ensemble
forecasts (C. Bishop)
This work is based around climate models and the use of various different models
so could be applied to non-homogeneous EPS data. 24 CMIP3 models were being
considered over a period of 29 years. Ensemble post processing based on a
Replicate Earth paradigm led to lower prediction errors (monthly mean RMS errors
were much reduced from around 1.9C to 1.3C), and flatter rank histograms. NWP
models change much more rapidly than CMIP models and so there is a need to getCAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 6
enough data between updates to apply the techniques. It is difficult to beat the multimodel mean for TCs.
4.3. Spatial verification methods and application to ensembles (B. Brown)
There is areal challenge to arrive at verification methods for high resolution
forecasts. The RMS errors don’t reflect better forecasts. It is important not to ignore
the structure in the forecast fields. Also verification methods should be diagnostic.
New spatial approaches can be neighbourhood based, look at scale separation, befeature based or consider field deformation. They all measure different things.
Feature based methods are easier. There are two main types – CRA (Contiguous
Rain Area) and MODE (Method for Objective based Diagnostic Evaluation). CRA
looks at displacement (translation to best fit) – finally it provides a pattern error(displacement and volume error).
MODE provides some smoothing of the precipitation field and identification of whichfeatures go together i.e., pairing up so that locations, intensity and areas can becompared.
The various approaches for applying spatial methods to ensemble forecasts werereviewed. It would be interesting to apply these to the TIGGE data. A big drawback
is that homogenous gridded fields for observational data are not available in Europe.
4.4. Proposed review paper on TIGGE research
There was a general discussion about the objectives and best approach to this work.
More papers were appearing in the literature. Also, the structure of the paper needs
to be decided e.g. by identifying the main themes. It is also important to capture thecurrent and planned future use of the archives and not just the historical use. This
could bear directly on the future maintenance of the archives.
Following discussion Richard Swinbank agreed to prepare an outline of the paper in
consultation with Istvan Synogh and Heini Wernli. Laurie Wilson agreed to assist.
Action 10.4.1: :Co-Chair to contact PDP Co-Chairs to agree the structure of a
TIGGE research review paper in consultation with Laurie Wilson, with the intentionof a good draft available by the next WG meeting. Subsequently, a version of thepaper should be submitted for publication in the scientific literature
5. SWFDP
5.1. Current status & feedback received on current & prototype products (M.
Kyouda)Support is being provided to the S E Asia SWFDP by JMA. There are two maintypes of products – TC tracks and heavy rainfall predictions. Support is also given to
the NW Pacific TC EPS project. This involves deterministic and ensemble forecasts
as well as strike probability and point strike probability. The process is production of
products at MRI which are then transferred to the WMO regional Centre at Hanoi
and so onto the NMHSs. Feedback at various levels is an important part of theoverall process.
This is along the lines of current support to the SWFDPs generally i.e. multi-model
products delivered to the regional centres and then onto the individual national
centres. General results show that the multi-model ensemble severe weather
products beat the best single-model (ECMWF) version and there is a better
relationship between observed and forecast probabilities.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 7
More evaluation is gradually taking place each season as additional scores areadded.
Products are now being produced at Oxford University so the data flow is ECMWF
to Oxford and then MRI/JMA – which is quicker than the original methods oftransferring all the data to Japan. Products are plotted for various regions, including
the SWFDPs; they could be produced for the La Plata basin project.
Action 10.5.1: Co-chair & Christopher Cunningham to request Mio Matsueda to
generate severe weather products for the La Plata Basin as soon as possible.
5.2. Questionnaire and feedback on current and prototype products
It was noted that the MRI questionnaire was generated some time ago anddistributed by the Typhoon Committee Secretariat to the member countries; it was
mainly aimed at obtaining feedback on TC products on the WWRP/TCP website
from forecasters in the Typhoon Committee region. After that became clear, a moregeneral GIFS-TIGGE questionnaire on the current and desired usage of severe
weather products was compiled, and has now been sent out by Richard Swinbank
to the regional SWFDP centres. Responses have been requested by the end of July,to help to determine which products should be supplied to the SWFDP websites forevaluation.
5.3 Plan for the introduction of GIFS products to the SWFDP and their evaluation
The multi-model ensemble approach shows increased skill over the single ensemble
for surface temperature, precipitation and TC tracks. So, the main focus of GIFS
product development is planned to be on the multi-model approach, but could also
include innovative products based on single model ensembles. The next steps in the
GIFS development process will include the generation of multi-model versions ofensemble TC track products and closer to real time versions of severe weather
products. Priorities for further development should reflect the responses to thequestionnaire sent to the SWFDP centres. There is also need to engage theverification WG in evaluation of products.
5.4 Possible development of real-time versions of gridded products
It was recognised that ECMWF EPS data could be used by the Met Office togenerate near real time multi-model products for the SWFDPs. The NCEP data
could form a third component. If possible, JMA data should also be included, toallow a real-time product based on the same four ensembles as the prototype
product developed by MRI. The WG recognised that the Met Office could andshould take the lead and implement real time support to the SWFDPs within existingdata policies.
Action 10.5.2: Met Office, JMA and MRI to develop a joint proposal for delivery of
products in near real time to the SWFDPs, in consultation with ECMWF and NCEP,
by October 2012. The Met Office is the lead organisation under the GEOWOW
project. This proposal should consider calibration, verification and feasibility issues
and establish timescales for implementation.
6. Tropical Cyclones
6.1. US. Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (Bob Gall)CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 8
The vision is to organise the hurricane community to dramatically improve numerical
forecast guidance to NHC in 5-10 years. Targets involve reducing track andintensity errors by 20% in 5 years and 50% in 10 years, extending useful predictions
to 7 days and increasing the probability of detecting rapid deepening at day 1 to90% and at day 5 to 50%. This is a major programme with annual expenditure ofaround 23M$. Intensity is the biggest challenge – the NHC official intensity errors
show little or no improvement. Funding is distributed across a number of areas e.g.
DA, ensembles, verification, applications, societal impacts etc.
The general strategy is to use global models at high resolution for track forecasts
out to 7 days and then regional models at 1-3km resolution for intensification
predictions. A hybrid DA system will be used for the both global and regional scales
using as much satellite and aircraft data as possible. Statistical post-processing will
be used to increase skill.
Big efforts are being made to engage and organise the US community i.e.,
Navy/ONR, NCAR, NOAA/OAR, NRL, Universities, etc. Global models outperform
regional for track – after 2 days a global model is needed. A global model is alsoneeded for prediction of genesis. The track error for 2010 -2011 is similar to that of
ECMWF.
Intensity is controlled by inner core convective processes and so a high resolution
regional model is then essential. Also, high resolution inner core observational datais necessary for good predictions.
The project uses the NOAA Jet computer system (phase 4 SJet). In 2012
improvements will be made to HWRF with expected gains in track and intensity
predictions.
6.2. Typhoon Landfall FDP and NW Pacific TCEFP (B. Brown)
The TCEFP website is hosted by JMA/MRI. Improvements are being made toinclude training in the use of products, surveys of utility and further improvements to
products. It is intended to add wind speed and precipitation.
The TLFDP seeks to demonstrate the performance of the most advanced
forecasting techniques for landfall typhoons. Actions in 2012 include providing realtime products to all members, extending the verification system and organising aworkshop to discuss progress. The TLFDP is to be extended to 2015 with enhanced
goals. It was noted that the TLFDP already uses some regional models. Liaison with
TIGGE-LAM would be helpful.
A new proposal to address TC formation, and seeking to use TIGGE data, had been
proposed by Prof Elsberry. It is now anticipated that that work will be included in theextended NWP TCEFP and TLFDP projects.
It was noted that using a consistent tracker code was not possible because centres
use their own individual systems.
Action 10.6.1: Tiziana Paccagnella to contact the Shanghai Typhoon Instituteconcerning the use of regional models in the TLFDP and assessment of the skill of
TC intensity forecasts in high resolution models
6.3. 2012 Tropical Cyclone Genesis Ensemble Forecast (Y.Zhu)
This work considers TC genesis probability forecasts using various global EPS
systems (ECMWF, NCEP, Canada, etc.) to get some idea of how likely a storm is toform. The main focus is on TC genesis at 48h ahead. The track after genesis is thenevaluated.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 9
Future work will investigate getting more reliable TC genesis criteria for each EPS
system and in generating multi-model TC genesis products.
At present there is a strong tendency for models to generate TCs too often i.e. there
is a high false alarm rate.
6.4. Enhancements to the CXML content and data exchange
The CXML exchange is well established. However, there is the question of what
additional information about TCs might be included in messages? Every centre
produces forecast tracks, some include central pressure. ECMWF also sends
maximum wind for the system. The US would like to some “size” information
included e.g. radius of tropical storm force winds or radius of maximum winds.
The WG agreed that future action should be guided by the response to thequestionnaire.
Action 10.6.2: Co-chair to review the completed SWFDP questionnaires to see if
there are any implications for the content of CXML messages.
Action 10.6.3: The WG encourages providing centres to include information on
forming storms in CXML messages (initially using location / time as identificationand subsequently discuss a naming convention).
Action 10.6.4: IPO to check the original letter issued on CXML messages and thereplies from the centres
7. Rainfall & Gridded Products
7.1. La Plata Basin project (C. Cunningham)
The La Plata Basin Research and Development Project (LBP-RDP) considers
forecasting of heavy rainfall over the La Plata Basin. The project is at the pre-study
and planning stage. This includes quantifying the skill of state of the art models over
the LPB and seeking ways to anticipate extreme events (EPS approach).
The sources of errors in models are also being considered, to feed into model
development. Similarly the impact of additional observational data is being
evaluated as is the use of TIGGE data. A large group of people is being assembled.
Publicity activities are underway and a formal letter of commitment has been sent toCAS. A presentation has been made to the WWRP JSC and also to the CHUVA
Workshop. A forecast demonstration is being planned to link with the next CHUVA
observational campaign.
Funding remains an issue and a funding proposal has been made, A meeting hastaken place with ONS who operate the hydro-electric power system in Brazil. They
have agreed to become a part of the project. They also have an interest in
forecasting extended dry spells.
Action 10.7.1: Christopher Cunningham to consult with Tiziana Paccagnella toensure transfer of the benefits from the TIGGE-LAM work to the La Plata Basin
Project
7.2. Possible use of TIGGE products in other projects (e.g. Sochi 2014)
There was a need to establish how the WG could better support this project. It is notclear what the requirements really are.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 10

Action 10.7.2: The Co-Chair to contact Dmitry Kiktev (Sochi 2014) to discusspossible requirements in detail7.3 Hydrology (D. Richardson)
The Hydrological use of Ensembles (HEPEX) project was outlined. Information canbe found on the website www.hepex.org. The main objectives include demonstrating
the reliability of hydrological ensembles and providing a platform for exchange ofideas and results. Important questions relate to what adaptations are needed to
EPSs for hydrological applications and how should hydrological EPSs be modified
to account for uncertainty.
HEPEX has written two white papers on links with THORPEX. These include access
to TIGGE data, providing feedback and helping HEPEX use TIGGE data. Some
scientific questions have been identified e.g. how important is the feedback fromhydrological processes for the atmospheric circulation?
It seems that around 15 hydrological centres, mostly in Europe, are using EPSs.
There are over 50 publications in the literature and some review articles. This areaof work also links into the GEOWOW project.
8. Links with other THORPEX & WWRP groups
8.1. DAOS working group (T. Hamill)
The objectives and membership of the DAOS WG were outlined. The WG has
considered the impact of data in different NWP systems. AMSU-A has the dominant
effect. A review report on targeted observations has been written and published by
the WMO. This indicates that in the tropics the effects on the accuracy ofassimilations and forecasts are positive, but vary from model to model whereas in
the extra-tropics the results are more open to question. There were no impacts fromtargeted observations in a re-run of the WSR 2011 data over broader areas, though
research is ongoing to evaluate the impact in smaller, selected target areas.
Concordiasi was a major international experiment focusing on use of observations in
the Antarctic. Additional observations were gathered from driftsondes anddropsondes etc. The impact was positive with improvements in forecasts.
Data assimilation systems are also considered by the group including Hybrid 4DVAR; see J. Whitaker’s workshop presentation for a review of this topic.
Some problems with data sharing remain, e.g. related to precipitable waterobservations from GPS. The European programme is E-GVAP but data are notexchanged with the US and vice versa, due to US problems in dealing with different
data formats. ECMWF finds assimilating the US radar rainfall data has a small
positive effect on forecasts in the US and there may ne some positive downstream
benefits as well. There is a potentially serious gap in polar-orbiting satellite data
coming up if the NPP ceases to operate before the JPSS- 1 comes on-line. This
would leave only Metop in service. Other satellite data may help alleviate theproblem, and a hyper-spectral sounder has now been agreed for Meteosat 3rd
generation. Concerning the future it is expected that DAOS will become a WG of the
WWRP after THORPEX ends. The WG should develop and/or maintain close links
with WMO programs ET-EGOS, GLASS and SPARC.
8.2. PDP working group (C. Bishop)

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 11
The PDP WG would like to see more interaction with the TIGGE WG. It is now
acknowledged that the TIGGE data set is being used extensively for dynamical
process research. At the recent PDP meeting forecast busts were discussed –associated with too weak warm conveyor belts. ECMWF had also been looking atbusts over Europe. A large data set was available and showed a pattern emerging
at 3 days i.e. a trough over the Rockies and CAPE over the eastern US.
The results from T-PARC are being reviewed with emphasis now on process andgenesis questions rather than data impacts.
Understanding model error remains a large part of the PDP role.
The DIAMET and PANDOWAE projects were then outlined.
Systematic errors in typhoon forecasts at ECMWF and the Met Office are being
addressed – the former is too dry whilst the latter is too wet.
A good point of interaction between the two WGs could be to focus on busts anderrors in forecasts.
8.3. Links with TIGGE-LAM (T. Paccagnella)
The TIGGE-LAM plan has been published. The TIGGE-LAM Panel is now organised
in a regional structure and focal points identified. Work to archive the European LAM
EPSs at ECMWF has just started as part of the GEOWOW project.
There are active projects at CMA related to severe convective events and heavy
rainfall. The N American EPS test bed is proceeding and also links to ahydrometerological test bed. In S America a super model ensemble system is being
developed involving 54 members from several models. In S Africa a high resolution
EPS forecast system is being developed based upon the WRF model with boundary
conditions from NCEP. In Europe the SRNWP project is running and it is likely that
Eur EPS will be approved. This will be for a 1 year feasibility study of convective
permitting ensembles starting on the 1 Jan. 2013.
FROST 2014 is an RDP/FDP for the Sochi Olympics. It includes 5 models at theconvective scale (1km) and a number of ensemble systems e.g. COSMO-LEPS,
ALADIN-LAEF, GLAMEPS and TIGGE. There is strong involvement of the
Verification WG
The possible move of TIGGE-LAM to the Mesoscale WG was disussed. The WG
was not in favour at this time.
Decision 10.8.1. The WG supports close links between TIGGE-LAM panel and theMesoscale WG but it does not support any organisational changes concerning
TIGGE-LAM at this time, in view of the impending completion of THORPEX.
8.4. Update on new sub-seasonal & polar projects (R. Swinbank)
The sub-seasonal to seasonal project is intended to fill the gap between medium
range and seasonal forecasting and is a collaborative project between the WWRP
and WCRP. A planning group has been formed and a project plan written.
Applications are envisaged in areas such as agriculture, warning systems, disease
control, etc. Scientific issues include heavy rainfall and extreme events, the MJO
and stratospheric effects. The project will address a variety of modelling issues
including resolution, systematic errors, ensemble generation and verification. The
potential predictability of sub-seasonal events will be evaluated.
The database will follow the example of TIGGE model using GRIB2 but the ability toprovide data NetCDF for the WCRP community, as well as GRIB2, is crucial. It is
expected to be only about 10% of the size of the TIGGE archive.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 12
It is expected that the project will run initially for 5 years with a Project Officeestablished and Steering Group in place.
The WWRP Polar Prediction project was outlined. It arose from a recommendation
by CAS. An Implementation Plan has been written around various themes. These
include predictability/diagnostics, exploiting EPS systems, improving perturbation
methods, including sea ice and ocean and land surface models. A Year Of Polar
Prediction (YOPP) is suggested – this would be held in about 5 years time andinvolve intensive observations and modelling.
9. Future plans
9.1. THORPEX legacy
The WG discussed the THORPEX legacy and post possible THORPEX
arrangements. A paper has been commissioned by the ICSC from the THORPEX
EC for discussion at ICSC 10 in Oct. 2012. THORPEX WGs and ICSC members areinvited to submit a one-page document setting out their view, which will be included
as an annex to the ICSC paper. It is expected that the WWRP will be organised into
a series a WGs addressing long term fundamental issues and a series of specificprojects supported by Trust Funds. It is envisaged that the DAOS WG will become a
WG of the WWRP. The consensus of the WG was that the PDP and TIGGE groups
might merge to form another “Predictability and Ensembles” WG in the WWRP. The
WG strongly supported the continuation of TIGGE beyond the end of THORPEX.
The TIGGE data set is an invaluable resource for: scientific research on
predictability and dynamics; EPS validation and verification; development ofprobabilistic forecast products; benefiting from enhancements and wider use
resulting from the GEOWOW project. It was recognised that the continuation of
TIGGE will require support from at least one of the archive centres. The WG feltthat the ongoing management of TIGGE could be accomplished with the minimumof effort.
Action 10.9.1: Co-chair to draft a one-page summary on WG input concerning thepost-THORPEX arrangements to the ICSC, then circulate to WG members and PDP
co-chairs, before submission to the IPO by 15 July.

10. GEO
10.1. GEO-WOW EU project (D. Richardson)
This project aims to improve the TIGGE archive at ECMWF and provide wider
access through the GEOSS Common Infrastructure (GCI). The project began in
Sept. 2011 but real work started just a few weeks ago when staff where in place.
The project is led by ESA, with about one half devoted to the GCI and the other halfis split equally between the Water, Weather and (Ocean) Ecosystem SBAs (societal
benefit areas).
There are three main threads. The first is enhancing the TIGGE archives by adding
European LAM EPSs, creating time series data sets and providing TIGGE in
NetCDF to reach a wider community. The second seeks to improve data quality andintegration by looking at bias and calibration, combination techniques and reducing
forecast errors. Finally the third topic includes development of products andapplications for high impact weather and supporting the SWFDPs.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 13
The project is multi-disciplinary and so modelling of river discharge data using
TIGGE is being explored using the observed data from the Global Runoff Data
Center.
The project will run for 3 years and is currently on track.
Action 10.10.1: Laurie Wilson to contact David Richardson concerning theselection of locations for time-series data from the ECMWF TIGGE archive for the
GEOWOW project

10.2. Report on on-going activities and future opportunities (J. Caughey)
The TIGGE work remains an important element of the GEO Workplan. Some
examples of the work appeared in the recent GEO publication “Crafting Geo
Information”. The TIGGE Task Sheet can be inspected by visiting the GEO website.
Regular updates take place.
The current GEO Director, Jose Achache, has retired and been replaced by Barbara
Ryan who was previously the Director of the WMO Space programme.
11. Membership
The Co-Chair vacancy was discussed. The Co-Chair and IPO will consider thematter further in the near future and make a recommendation to ICSC 10.
Action 10.11.1: Co-chair & IPO to identify a new co-chair and submit thenomination, with any other recommended WG membership changes, to ICSC-10.
12. Any other business
There was no other business13. Review of meeting outcomes, decisions and actions; next meeting
The actions and decisions were reviewed and agreed. An invitation was extended
for the WG to meet in the first half of June 2013 at the Met OfficeCAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 14
PARTICIPANTS
1)

GIFS-TIGGE WORKING GROUP
Richard Swinbank (Co-chair)David Richardson
Gong Jiandong
Mike Naughton (via teleconference)
Christopher Cunningham (for Osvaldo Moraes)
Laurie Wilson
Masayuki Kyouda
Doug Schuster
Yuejian Zhu
Tiziana Paccagnella

3)

WWRP / THORPEX WG REPRESENTATIVESTom Hamill (DAOS Working Group)
Craig Bishop (PDP Working Group, via teleconference)
Barbara Brown (JWGFVR)

4)INVITED EXPERTS
Zoltan Toth (ESRL)Brian Etherton (ESRL)Bob Gall (NOAA, HFIP)

5)

WMO SECRETARIATJim CaugheyCAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 15

Annex 1
Actions and Decisions GIFS-TIGGE WG 10
Permanent Actions
Action P.1: All archive centres to update statistics on TIGGE data users on an annual basis(end of each year), using similar statistics for users, actives users, etc. Doug Schuster tocoordinate.
Action P.2: Yuejian Zhu to carry out literature search for papers based on TIGGE data on anannual basis (end of each year), and summarise results. Archive centres to ask users to informthem when TIGGE papers are written, to enable the list of TIGGE publications to be kept up to
date.
Action P.3: All data providers to provide model descriptions in agreed Excel format and to
update the files after significant changes and send to ECMWF.
Action P.4: Co‐chairs to request reports before each WG meeting onall actions, plus relevant
progress reports.
Actions carried forward from GIFS-TIGGE 9
Action 9.3.4: WG members to consider adding to training material on the TIGGE data portals,
including data access and manipulation examples, to help potential users of the TIGGE archive.
Action 9.4.1: Tiziana Paccagnella to arrange for report on European TIGGE-LAM
interoperability to be circulated for the benefit of related activities in other regions by Dec 2012.
Actions from GIFS-TIGGE 10
Action 10.3.1: Doug Schuster, David Richardson, Jiandong Gong to advertise the NCAR
model validation portal on the other archive data portals and TIGGE website.
Action 10.3.2: Yuejian Zhu to establish the possibilities and practicalities of providing the
NCEP data to the ECMWF archive centre in the event that the NCAR archive centre ceases tofunction in the post THORPEX era.
Action 10.4.1: Co-chair to contact PDP co-chairs to agree the structure of a TIGGE researchreview paper in consultation with Laurie Wilson, with the intention of a good draft available by
the next WG meeting. Subsequently, the paper should be submitted for publication in thescientific literature
Action 10.5.1: Co-chair & Christopher Cunningham to request Mio Matsueda to generate
severe weather products for the La Plata Basin as soon as possible.
Action 10.5.2: Met Office, JMA and MRI to develop a joint proposal for delivery of products innear real time to the SWFDPs, in consultation with ECMWF and NCEP, by October 2012. The
Met Office is the lead organisation under the GEOWOW project. This proposal should consider
calibration, verification and feasibility issues and establish timescales for implementation.

CAS/THORPEX ICSC GIFS-TIGGE-10/Report p. 16
Action 10.6.1: Tiziana Paccagnella to contact the Shanghai Typhoon Institute concerning theuse of regional models in the TLFDP and assessment of the skill of TC intensity forecasts inhigh resolution models
Action 10.6.2: Co-chair to review the completed SWFDP questionnaires to see if there are any
implications for the content of CXML messages.
Action 10.6.3: The WG encourages providing centres to include information on forming
storms in CXML messages (initially using location / time as identification and subsequently
discuss a naming convention).
Action 10.6.4: IPO to check the original letter issued on CXML messages and the replies fromthe centres.
Action 10.7.1: Christopher Cunningham to consult with Tiziana Paccagnella to ensuretransfer of the benefits from the TIGGE-LAM work to the La Plata Basin Project
Action 10.7.2: Co-Chair to contact Dmitry Kiktev (Sochi 2014) to discuss possible requirements
in detailDecision 10.8.1: The WG supports close links between TIGGE-LAM panel and the Mesoscale
WG. But it does not support any organisational changes concerning TIGGE-LAM at this time, inview of the impending completion of THORPEX.
Action 10.9.1: Co-chair to draft a one-page summary on WG input concerning the postTHORPEX arrangements to the ICSC, then circulate to WG members and PDP co-chairs,
before submission to the IPO by 15 July.
Action 10.10.1: Laurie Wilson to contact David Richardson concerning the selection oflocations for time-series data from the ECMWF TIGGE archive for the GEOWOW project
Action 10.11.1: Co-chair & IPO to identify a new co-chair and submit the nomination, with anyother recommended WG membership changes, to ICSC-10.