23

Studies on Bioclimate and Weather-Health Forecasting in Japan
Masatoshi YOSHINO1* and Ryoji MIYASHITA2
1

Professor Emeritus, University of Tsukuba, Japan, andSenior Advisor, Sustainable Environmental Development, United Nations University
e-mail: mtoshiyo@poplar.ocn.ne.jp
2
IDEA Consultants Inc., Kokudokankyo Research Instititute, Yokohama, Japan*corresponding author

Abstract
In order to review the present status of bioclimate research and weather-health forecasting in Japan,
development is first described briefly for the periods of the first and second halves of the 20th Century.
Important topics for further development are demonstrated to be: temperature change; lifestyle changes;
historical approaches used such as weather-related proverbs, old documents, etc.; and analysis of health(disease)-weather relationships. In the second part of this review, activities of the “BioClima ResearchCommittee (BCRC)” are mentioned. The BCRC, established in 2000, has been organizing meetings andsymposiums and has published several monographs or books on bioclimate. In the third part, background information used in health-weather forecasting is reviewed. Awareness of various relationships
between health and weather and data pertaining to them, and their usefulness in forecasting is introduced, referring to the results of a questionnaire survey among general citizens. As a practical problem,it discusses “Expression Codes” for broadcasting information on forecasts. Also, the regional division of
bioclimatic conditions in Japan is mentioned in order to consider the size of the areas covered by forecasts. For reference, information propagation by news papers is mentioned, too. In the last part, examples of influenza, myocardial infarction and heat disorder are mentioned based on the results obtained. It
is concluded that such approaches to forecasting should be developed further in all countries underinternational cooperation.
Key words: bioclimate, biometeorology, health-weather relationship, Japan, weather-health forecasting

1. Introduction
According to a recent questionnaire survey(Aoyagi, 2006), global warming is considered to be
the most important among the environmental problems facing Japan. It was indicated that 39.3% (thesecond largest number) of the respondents replied thatthe impact of global warming on human health was
the most serious problem. Third ranked (36.3%) washeat islands and heat waves.
In Germany, 19.2% of people considered that
health is affected strongly by weather conditions and35.5% that health is affected by weather, according toa questionnaire survey (Hoeppe et al., 2002)
These values show how important the subject ofhuman health is in global environmental research. In
the present paper, developments are first reviewed andimportant topics for future studies are summarizedbased on the review. Next, recent developments
inbioclimate studies and forecasting are described.
Further scientific and technical problems are summarized in the conclusion.
Global Environmental Research
11: 23-31 (2007)
printed in Japan

2. History of Description of the Human
Health-Weather Relationship
2.1 From ancient times to the first half of the 20th
Century
Since the ancient Greek and Arabic period, humanhealth has been described as closely related to weather
and climate. It is well-known that Hippocrates (460
B.C.? – 375 B.C.?) mentioned impacts of climate on
human life in his book “Air, water and land.”In China, by 650 B.C. there were already descriptions which were included in a book “菅子”(Guanzi)(completed in the Zhanguo Dynasty, 475 B.C. – 221
B.C.) which discussed seasonal changes in climate,plant development and human health, in particular,
seasonal changes in points of note such as sleeping
hours, mental stability, sunbathing, food and drink.
Abnormal weather phenomena such as cold waves,heat waves, heavy storms and heavy rainfall werementioned as having serious effects on human healthand disease.
Similar descriptions are found in other books: “黄©2007 AIRIES24

M. YOSHINO and R. MIYASHITA

帝内径” (Huangdineijing) and “左伝” (Zuochuan) in

the Zhou-dynasty (Wen, 2004; Wang et al., 2006;
Hong & Liu, 2006). Their ages of completion are notclear, but it is considered that they appeared aroundthe 8th Century B.C. to the 5th Century B.C. Therefore, descriptions of health-weather relationships inChina appeared earlier than or in almost same period
as in Greece.
Through exchange of cultural missions between
China and Japan starting in the 8th Century, theChinese knowledge of relationships between weather
and human health/disease was brought into Japan.
In the 17th Century, European bioclimatic knowledge came to Japan through Nagasaki, which was the
only port open to the foreign countries, and spreadthroughout Japan. In his book entitled “Record of
Genna Navigation” published in 1618, U. Ikeda wrotethat “An injured person feels a pain stronger in
his wound when a storm (cyclone) is approaching(Yoshino, 2007).”
In the 18th Century, the descriptions became moredetailed, for example, it was noted that itchiness of thehead, burning sensation in the face or ears, active
fluttering of birds, active jumping of fishes, many ants
coming out from nests, etc. were fore-running signs ofapproaching cyclones.
On the other hand, health-weather relationships
have been observed by local people and maintained in
the form of weather proverbs among peoples sinceancient times. These have been listed up in regional
geographies on a prefectural or village scale.
Early biometeorology/bioclimatology works arefound in the various fields of study in Japan. Mori
(1889) wrote a textbook on hygiene for an army medical course summarizing knowledge on weatherdisease relationships, and this text book was revisedand enlarged as a publication by Koike and Mori
(1897) in the middle of the Meiji Era. They discussed
the differences between sunburn caused by insolationand heat disorders caused by high temperatures. These
works appeared at almost same time, the last decadeof the 19th Century, as compared with other countriesof the world. For, example, in Russia, Voeikov (1893)
made important contribution to the medical climatology, summarizing the climatic therapy and hygiene in1893 (Avtsyn & Tikhomirov, 1976)
Marui (1946) studied seasonal changes in mental
disorders and reported their maximum occurrence inJune and July. He pointed out a similar seasonalchange in frequency of suicide and crime.
In 1943, a bioclimatological study group wasestablished in the Ministry of Welfare in Japan tooverview research on bioclimate in Japanese research
institutes and universities. The proceedings of the firstmeeting were published in 1944, but its activity
ceased because of World War II.
2.2 Since the middle of the 20th Century
In the second half of the 20th Century, bioclimatol-

ogy progressed. This is described in detail elsewhere(Yoshino, 2007). Concerning seasonal changes inmortality, outdoor temperatures and heating/coolingindoors affect its pattern (Momiyama, 1961; Momiyama& Kito, 1963; Sakamoto-Momiyama, 1977).
As has been pointed out by Miller (1989),
Landsberg (1969), a world famous climatologist, hasalready written on the theme of “Weather and Health”
among his many fields of bioclimatology, which
include housing, air pollution, urban climates, foodproduction, etc. Through his works, it has become
clear that not only the outdoor temperatures, but also
lifestyle changes, for example, air conditioning, areamong the important factors.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO, 1987)
published a booklet entitled “Climate and Human
Health” 20 years ago. In this publication, short chapter
on “Forecasts and warnings” is found: mortality ratestatistics display a seasonal variation implying a linkwith climatic factors as well as trends over longer
periods due to socio-economic or other changes. Additionally, high day-to-day variation of mortality isfound in association with passage of low pressure systems, particularly in the middle latitudes regions.
Further, it was written that there is clearly a good basis
for considering some day-to-day weather types as biologically unfavorable for mankind and others as favorable. Accordingly weather forecasting clearly has agenuine relevance for human health.
This relevance can be increased by adding heatstress or wind chill information to forecasts of impending hot or cold weather. Special warning could be
added to emphasize particular risks liable to affectthose suffering from weather-dependent disease oraged. It is interesting to note that, at the status 20
years ago, it was written that “Care should be exercised to avoid causing over-reaction amongst meteorological hypo-chondriacs or those who rightly or
wrongly believe themselves to be especially weather
sensitive.” Examples of warnings in daily forecast
were heart disease, asthma or bronchitis as well asheat disorder and wind chill as mentioned above.
Impacts of extreme events caused by global warming on human health have become one of the main
topics of concern, recently. Harasawa (2006) reported
that heat strokes/heat stress are important particularly
among aged people and the poor and needy in cities.
In 2003, high temperatures continued in Europe from
June and heat waves occurred in August: 37.9˚C in
London on 10 August and 40.0˚C in Paris on
12 August. It was reported that 14,800 died as a resultof heat waves in France (Pirard et al., 2005). The hightemperatures of that year were an extreme case in thepast 500 years (Schar et al., 2004).
Summarizing the historical development of descriptions and research concerning the bioclimates,
especially on the relationship between climate/weather
and human health/diseases (Landsberg, 1969; Yoshino,2007), the following topics will be important forStudies on Bioclimate and Weather-Health Forecasting in Japanfurther studies and to establish scientific forecasting.
(a) Temperature change: 1. seasonal changes; 2. dayto-day (inter-diurnal) changes; 3. long-term changes(global warming, global cooling, little ice ages,etc.): 4. extreme events (heat-stroke, cold- injury).
(b) Lifestyles: 1. long-term changes; 2. cultural differences; 3. regional differences.
(c) Historical: 1. weather proverbs; 2. old documents,
regional geography or text books; 3. statistical, experimental and descriptive research; 4. forecasting.
(d) Health: 1. various diseases; 2. health conditions;
3. sports and tourism.

3. Bioclimate Study for Forecasting in Japan
3.1 The “BioClima Research Committee”
The “BioClima Research Committee (BCRC)”
was established in Tokyo in 2000, chaired by M.
Yoshino. The members of this Committee consist
mainly of biometeorology researchers and medical
doctors. The purposes of the group are: (1) to study
the relationship between human health/well-being andweather/climate change/environment change; (2) to
supply information to human society for the sake of
disease prevention and improvement of well-being

25(amenity); and (3) to present a forum to researchersfor exchanging information and for cooperating
mutually (Yoshino & Miyashita, 2004).
Activities in the first stage are classified into two
categories: (1) basic scientific research for medical
weather forecasting, and (2) establishment of bioweather services. In the Committee, two working
groups, “Health” and “Amenity” were established.
The activities of the “Health” working group in 2001
are shown in Table 1. The main theme at the starting
point of the group was to make clear the relationships
between weather and diseases, such as strokes, heatstrokes, myocardial infarctions, psychotic depression,
epidemic infection, cerebral blood vessel lesions,influenza, and rheumatic disease. In addition, seasonalchanges in circulatory organ diseases and mortality
were considered for study. Some results of the studies
listed in Table 1 have been published as given incolumn of notes of the table.
The “Amenity” working group on concentrated
intensively on themes such as green belts in urban
areas, living and housing styles for persons assessedas hot or cold, comfortable air conditioning during
sleep in summer, seasonal shifting of clothing conditions and forecasting for this, food customs in recent

Table 1 Study themes on human health by group members in 2001.
Name ofresearcher(s)Study theme

Notes

Ando, M.

Precise forecasting of heat-strokes by weather informationand human behavior.

Ando et al. (1998; 2004)

Inaba, Y.
Hoshi, A.
Xu, J
Iriki, M.
Komori, S.
Urashima, M.
Nukariya, K.
Urashima, M.
Okabe, N.
Shiozawa, Z.
Iriki, M.
Shoji, M.
Sudo, Ch.
Hoshi, A.
Inaba, Y.
Yukiyama, Y.

Relationship between meteorological elements andoccurrence of strokes.

Xu et al. (2004)

Myocardial infarctions and meteorological conditions.
Depression and meteorological conditions.
Modeling epidemic infectious diseases according tometeorological conditions and population movement.
Relationship between occurrence of cerebrovasculardisorder and climate.
Forecasting of influenza occurrence by EXCEL.
Analysis of transport by ambulance cars in Nagoya City.
Analysis of heat disorder occurrence using newspaper
reports.
Seasonal weather changes and rheumatoid arthritis.

Shoji et al. (2004)
Sudo (2005)
Hoshi & Inaba (2004)
Yukiyama (2004)

Table 2 Study themes on amenity by group members in 2001.
Name ofresearcher(s)Inoue, Y.
Kakitsuba, T.
Tamura, T. et al.
Fukuoka, Y.
Homma, K.
Hashimoto, S.
Matsubara, N.
Kurazumi, Y.
Yoshino, M.

Study theme

Notes

Reactions of self-assessed persons, whose health isaffected by cold.
Comfortable cooling environment during sleep in summer.
Seasonal shifts in various health-weather conditions in
Tamura & Maruta (2004), Maruta & Tamura
Japan.
(2004) and in this volume.
Analysis of shifts in occurrences of discomSeasonal shifts in various health-weather conditions.
fort, cooling degree-days, heat strokes. etc.
and its application to forecasting.
Human health and environmental and social factors—sleepand biorhythms—.
Secular changes in lifestyles for escaping summer heat.

Matsubara et al. (2004)

Occurrence of Asian dust storms and forecasting them.

Yoshino (2002) and Yoshino et al. (2002).

26

M. YOSHINO and R. MIYASHITA

years, plant phenology and discomfort indices forurban areas, frontal maps of various bioclimate phenomena in Japan, and impacts of Asian dust storms onhuman health. The theme studied by the sub-group at
the starting point in 2001 and their published results
are listed in Table 2.
Figure 1 shows a Health-Weather Forecasting
service image from the BCRC. From the BCRC body,this service is provided via BIOCLIMA-NET for use
inlive-health calendars, health forecasting, medical
forecasting, amenity forecasting, etc. It is ultimately
intended for general users and professional traders.

Inaba (2007) reported on the activity of the Heat
Disorder Working Group of the BCRC, which intends
to create an index or standard for expression in
forecasting and prevention.
3.3 Background for health-weather forecasting
Before starting, there was a need to consider thequestion of “How useful is health-weather forecastingfor the public?” TERUMO Co. conducted a questionnaire survey of 1,168 individuals on their awarenessof health-weather relationships (Kida, 2005). Amongthem, 602 were normal, healthy people, and 566 hadhigh blood pressure, myocardial infarctions, asthma or
rheumatic ailments.
As Fig. 2 indicates, 78% answered that the information service was useful (very useful or rather useful). Roughly two thirds of people are understood tobe aware of health-weather relationships. Anotherresult of the questionnaire survey was that 73%
responded that they frequently or occasionally experienced effects of weather on their physical condition.
It was thought essential to consider codes forexpressing health-weather forecasting, because it was
the first attempt to present such information to the
public. The TERUMO group summarized an “Expression Code” for health-weather forecasting according
to their own standards, in addition to the code used inbroadcasting, as follows:(1) Present forecasting information based on facts
which are statistically significant,(2) Do not unnecessarily alarm TV viewers,

3.2 Symposiums, conferences and working groups
The BCRC organized a session called “Scope of
bioclimate in environment-human systems” at theThird International Conference on Human-Environment System (ICHES’05) on 12 Sept. 2005, held at
the Bunka Women’s University, Tokyo. L. Nkemdirimof the University of Calgary, Canada, presented the
keynote lecture on Climate-Environments and Human
Health (Nkemdirim, 2005). There were six contributions, including relationships between meteorologicalfactors and asthma by K. Murayama and M. Tonouchi;
heat strokes by Ch.-k. Liang and M. Ando; quantifying the sensation of comfort by K. Kuwabara,
T. Horikoshi and T. Mochida; and landscapes by
N. Koresawa, I. Tanaka and T. Horikoshi.
At the 10th annual meeting of the BCRC on 10
March, 2007, a symposium on “Heat Disorders andTheir Forecasting and Prevention” was organized.

WG-Amenity

WG-Health
Data Forecast
Parameter

Bioweather Service Web site

Bioclima Research Committee

BIOCLIMA-NET

Bioclimate
Contents

Forecasting
Model

Bioclimatologists
Medical Meteorologists

IDEA Consultants, Inc.

Internet
Distribution media◆Internet◆Portable telephone◆BS/CS digital broadcasting

Service Menu
●Life・health calendar●Health forecasting●Medical forecasting●Amenity forecasting●etc.

Existing media
TV, Radio,
Newspaper

BS/CS
digital broadcasting

Portable telephoneetc.

Life-health calendar
Health forecasting

Free of charge
Care management
forecast

General utilizer

PC

Medical forecast

ChargedProfessional traders

PC
Portable
telephone

Food poisoning

Care managers

Car Navigator

Portable telephone

Medical persons
concerned

Fig. 1 Service image of medical weather forecasting by IDEA Consultants, Inc., and BCRC.

Food tradersconcerned

Studies on Bioclimate and Weather-Health Forecasting in Japan(3) Do not cause misunderstanding among TV viewers,(4) Consider the security of TV viewers, and(5) Inform TV viewers of countermeasures for actionin as much detail as possible; for example, “wearyour hat,” “drink enough fluids,” “avoid strenuous
exercise under direct sunshine,” “stay indoors, if
possible,” “avoid crowds,” etc.
un-useful1%almost un-useful4%fifty-fifty
17%very useful32%

useful 78%

rather useful46%

Fig. 2 Awareness of information on the relationshipbetween health and weather and its usefulness(Kida, 2005).

The
The
first
second Pertinent area
division division
The southwest islands andI1others.
I
Izu islands and others.
I2
The southern part of
II1
Kyushu and the Pacific
Ocean Coast of Shikoku.
II
Pacific Ocean Coast fromII2
Kii peninsula to Boso
peninsula.
Kyushu and the southwest
III1
of Yamaguchi Prefecture.
III2
The Setonaikai area.
The Chubu and the Kanto
area (the Pacific Ocean
III3
Coast and the area of theIIIclimate in the Sea of Japanside is excluded).
The Pacific Ocean coast in
III4
Tohoku area.
The Pacific Ocean Coast
III5
in Hokkaido.
The greater part of the Sea
IV1of Japan side in Chugoku
area.
The side coast of the Sea
IV2
IVof Japan in Chubu area.
The side of the Sea ofJapan in Tohoku area andIV3
the south peninsula in
Hokkaido peninsula.
V
V
Greater part of Hokkaido.

Fig. 3 Regional division of Japanby bioclimatic conditions(Yoshino, 2003).

27

For forecasting, another basic problem is the sizeof the area or division of area covered by the forecast.
This, of course, depends on the size of the broadcast
network, forecasting frequency (intervals of broadcasting times) and range (short or long, daily, weekly,monthly or seasonal) of forecasting.
For general purposes, bioclimatic divisions canbe applied. Japan includes 39 bioclimate regions(Yoshino, 2003), based mainly climatic regions on themacro, meso and local scales (Yoshino, 1980). For therespective 39 regions shown in Fig. 3, the warmthcoldness index, annual precipitation and annual maximum depth of snow accumulation have been described, in addition to the complexity of biological
species, atmospheric quality, land conditions, severityof natural hazards, etc. Bioclimatic conditions in therespective sub-regions are shown in Table 3. The divided regions correspond fairly well, generally, to thearchitectural forms, clothing customs and sensibilitiesof the inhabitants. These are their ways of adapting tolong-term climatic conditions.
In order to clarify the applicability of bioclimatic
regional divisions to forecasting and short range
health-weather conditions, further studies are needed.
The BCRC studied health-weather information in
newspapers. As mentioned above, bioclimates havebeen studied actively in Germany for the last several

28

M. YOSHINO and R. MIYASHITA
Table 3

Difficultyor lesioncaused byheat

Bioclimatic conditions in the respective sub-regions of Japan, given in Fig. 3.
Most
frequently
Frequently
Occasionally
RarelyRarelyI1, I2, II1,
II2, III1A.
III1B, III2A,
III3A.
---

Stimulation by coldness
Occasionally
Frequently
III1C, III3C

Most frequently

---

---

III4A.

III3B, III4B---

III2B, III2C.

IV1A, IV2A
IV1B, IV1C,
IV3A

IV2B, IV3B
III5, IV2C, IV3C,
IV3D, V---

decades. It was thought, therefore, that for healthweather forecasting in the media including TV in
Japan, the treatment of this topic in the newspapers inGermany would be relevant. We therefore chose the“Frankfurther Allgemeine,” one of the representative
newspapers in Germany, as an example (Yoshino,2006). In the newspaper, the weather information
occupies a space of 19.7 cm × 37.0 cm, including aweather map (weather and air temperature) of
Germany and weather maps (pressure patterns,
weather, and air temperature distribution) of threeglobal regions: Europe, North America and Asia
(SE-Asia and E-Asia). Forecasting is given for thatday, the next day and three days later, and it includes
bioclimate conditions and pollen. Also, travel advisories are issued in another part. The contents of the“Bioweather” information given in seven lines are as
follows:(1) Regional conditions from north to south inGermany,(2) Trends in warmth or coldness,(3) Sleeping conditions at night and sensible temperatures in the daytime,(4) Warnings with regard to some diseases, such as
high blood pressure, and(5) Weather and winds on the coasts and mountains
for sports, leisure and travel.
The items mentioned above change according toweather conditions, treating some subjects in moredetail.

4. Some Examples
4.1 Influenza
The Infectious Disease Surveillance Center,
National Institute of Infectious Diseases in Japan, reports on the occurrence of influenza on a weekly basis.
An example from the 49th week, 5-11 December, in
2005, which was somewhat colder than normal, provided the following information (Nihon-Iji-Nippo,
2006).
“The number of reports (4,289) increased to morethan twice that of last week. This number is the third
ranking among the last eleven seasons (years). The
largest number of reports occurred in 1995-1996 andthe second largest, in 1996-1997. Since the 1999-2000
season, this week has already reached a record high.
Levels of alert higher than “warning” have been
issued in the five prefectures. Since the 36th week,---

there have been 103 reports on different types ofviruses; 31 were type AH1 and 72 were Type AH3,
with no Type B. These will be prevalent throughout
the country soon. More caution is necessary, based on
the occurrence tendency.”
Shoji (1999) pointed out that influenza occurs
every winter when temperatures and absolute humidity are lowest. He pointed out differences in conditions among five regions in Japan. He showed thatepidemics occured below 5 g/m3 of absolute humidity
in Hokkaido and Miyagi Prefecture, below 7 g/m3 in
Kagoshima Prefecture, and below 10 g/m3 in Tokyo
and Okinawa Prefecture. Making use of this information, weekly forecasting of the occurrence of influenza
epidemics has been conducted for eight regions inJapan since July 2003 (Shoji, 2003). Currently, however, there is a three-week lag in the input of newly
obtained data for forecasting. Shoji et al. (2004) reexamined the basis for forecasting in the season of
2003-2004, considering the boundary condition of“below 11 g/m3 of absolute humidity in Japan.” Other
reports are as follows: According to the statistics fromthe seasons of 1990-1991, 1991-1992, 1992-1993 and1994-1995, the occurrence of influenza started withconditions of absolute humidity below 11 g/m3 inJapan. Forecasting presented for the current day, thatthe prevailing period will be 14 weeks, will notnecessarily come about in actuality. In 83% of theprefectures, influenza continued for 9-14 weeks.
Particularly, important will be the case of weakeroccurrences under the influence of warmer winters.
For more developed forecasting, the results of the
2004-2005 and 2005-2006 seasons were examined
during the 10th Meeting of the BCRC held on
3 March 2007. A reduced frequency of occurrence ofthe so-called “tropical type” in June and July has beenreported, probably under the influence of air conditioning, in addition to the winter maximum.
4.2 Myocardial infarctions
Matsumura (2003) summarized disease warning
related to weather conditions season to season, using
the data from Hiroshima City, West Japan, based
mainly on his studies. He proposed that, for increasing
accuracy level of forecast on weather-health conditions, cooperation studies by medical doctors in many
hospitals, local government, local weather services,
fire stations, medias etc. are necessary. It is consideredthat these cooperation is effective and relatively easierStudies on Bioclimate and Weather-Health Forecasting in Japanin the medium size cities, because of the size of area,
numbers of population, budget and man power.
Hiroshima city (area is 905 km2 and population is1,155,000 in 2005) is one of the good examples.
The Hiroshima Medical Association has been forecasting myocardial infractions on its home page since
20 December 2003, based on an analysis of the relationships between the occurrence of 3,755 cases andthe prevailing meteorological conditions (Matsumura,2004). The effects of air temperature and pressure on
the occurrence of acute myocardial infarction are clear(Wang et al., 2006). The highest risk was found on thedays with low temperature and low air pressure.
“Warning days” in the forecast indicate conditions ofdaily mean air pressure lower than 1,005 hPa, dailymean air temperature lower than 10°C and synoptic
weather patterns with cold fronts passing. In contrast,“Caution days” indicate conditions of daily mean airpressure above 1,012 hPa, daily mean air temperature
lower than 10°C and synoptic weather patterns withzonal anticyclones.
Figure 4 shows rates of occurrences of myocardial
infarction of more than two cases per day in
Hiroshima for the respective pressure patterns overJapan (Matsumura, 2004). The rates were obtained
from data on transportation by ambulance cars in
Hiroshima City. In 2002, there were a total of
419 myocardial infarction patients. If we sum up thewinter weather patterns; that is, troughs passing(before and after) and typical winter-type pressure
patterns (west-high/east-low), in addition to the passage of cold fronts, 55% of myocardial infarctions
occur under such winter conditions. Therefore, in
forecasting particular attention should be paid tosynoptic weather patterns.

4.3 Others
In this special issue of the “Global Environmental
Research,” other health concerns such as heat disorders, pollen allergies, acute or chronic rheumatic
ailments and asthma are being discussed separately indetail, so they are omitted here.
Among others, the Ministry of the Environment’s
approach to heat disorders is representative. On its
web site, the Ministry has a “Heat disorder prevention
information” page, on which it presents a “HighTemperature Index,” which is obtained from data on
the current and following day, updated every threehours, for every prefecture in Japan. “High-Temperature Index” is divided into five levels as follows:
Greater than 31°C (Wet Bulb Globe Temperature(WBGT)): Outdoor exercise is prohibited in principle.
31°C-28°C: Strict warning.
28°C-25°C: Warning.
25°C-21°C: Caution.
Lower than 21°C: Almost safe.
The Ministry of the Environment also reports
briefly on the “High-Temperature Index” observed atfive city stations, Tokyo, Niigata, Nagoya, Osaka andFukuoka.
Ohshige et al. (2006) studied the influence of
weather on emergency transport events coded as
stroke. The events caused brain stroke increased under
the conditions of lower air temperature and lower air
humidity. In addition, it was found that they occurred
more frquently at the daytime before noon (Ohshige,2007).
Clothing is considered a mobile climatic environment for human beings. Tamura and Maruta (2004)
analyzed it by laboratory measurement and Maruta
and Tamura (2004) provided the outdoor observation

Fig.4 Rates of occurrence of myocardial infarction more than two cases per day in Hiroshima City for the respective synoptic weather patterns in 2002 (Matsumura, 2004)
100
W WARNING
A R N IN GO C C U R R E N C E F R E Q U E N C Y (% )80

OCCURRENCE FREQUENCY (%)

60

CAUTIONC A U T IO N
40

20

BAIU FRONTFRONTJAPANOVERFRONT OVER
SEAJAPAN SEANORTH HIGHCYCLONE ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST OF
HONSHUTYPE
WINTER WINTER
TYPE (WEST(WEST-H.
EAST-L)
H,EAST-L)

TROUGHTROUGH APPROACHZONAL ANTICYCLONE

0
COLD FRONTPASSAGE29

Fig. 4 Rates of occurrence of myocardial infarction of more than twocases per day in Hiroshima City for different synoptic weather
patterns in 2002 (Matsumura, 2004).

30

M. YOSHINO and R. MIYASHITA

mentioned above. Tamura (2005) recommends basedon these works that such types of studies should be
developed further in the regions at the high and low
latitudes and also in areas with high elevations, where
people are living with different cultural backgrounds
in addition to the various bioclimatic environments.
In addition to the short-range forecasting dealt within the present paper, there will be problems of longrange prediction such as monthly and seasonal forecasting or further longer time periods. For example,
epidemic malaria warnings in Africa based on theseasonal climate forecasts have been studied recently(Thomson et al., 2006). Technical problems and aims
for long-range prediction can be different from theshort-range forecasting, but we should study similar
problems in the future.

5. Summary and Conclusion
This review paper points out firstly that the following topics are considered important for further study.
(1) Seasonal, inter-diurnal, long-term and short-term
temperature change and extreme values. (2) Lifestylechanges over long periods, various cultural backgrounds and their regional differences. (3) A historical
overview for researches including weather proverbs,
old documents, statistics, and experimental or descriptive research. (4) Health conditions, various diseases,
sports and tourism.
The BCRC has been active in reserach since 2000.
Some of its results are described separately in thisspecial issue. There still remain, however, many
themes to be studied. In particular, techniques offorecasting for various diseases, outdoor sports, clothing, travel etc. and expression of the results are main
points to be considered in the future.

Acknowledgements
The writers wish to express our thanks to IDEA
Consultants, Inc., for supporting our activities. We
also acknowledge the participation, support and assistance to the whole program by the members of the
BCRC and the section Bioclima, IDEA. Without theircooperation, we could not have accomplished our purpose. Our words of gratitude go also to Dr. Akio
Hoshi, who checked the medical terms in the
manuscript.
References
Aoyagi, M. (2006) How has been understood the climate change
problems? News, National Institute for Environmental
Studies, Tsukuba, 25: 6-8. (in Japanese)Ando, M., N. Kobayashi, I. Kawahara, S. Asanuma andCh.-k.-Liang (1998) Impacts of heat stress on hyperthermic
disorders and heat stroke. Global Environmental Research, 2:
111-120.

Ando, M., S. Yamamoto and K. Wakamatsu (2004) The impactsof global warming on human health and adaptation. Japanese
Journal of Biometeorology, 40 (S): 317-328. (in Japanesewith English abstract)
Avtsyn, A. P. and I. I. Tikhomirov (1976) Medical climatology.
In: Great Soviet Encyclopedia, A translation of the third edition, 1973, MacMillan Inc., New York, 12: 129-130.
Harasawa, H. (2006) Extreme events caused by global warming
and their impacts on the society. Environmental Information
Science, Tokyo, 35: 4-7. (in Japanese)
Hoeppe, P., S. von Mackensen, D. Nowak and E. Piel (2002)
Praevalenz von Wetter-feuchtigkeit in Deutschland. Deutschen
Medizinische Wochenschrift, 127: 15-20.
Hoshi, A. and Y. Inaba (2004) Risk factors of incidence of heatdisorders using news paper reports. Japanese Journal of
Biometeorology, 40 (S): 273-283. (in Japanese with English
abstract)Hong, S., and Z. Liu (2006) History of Chinese meteorology.
China Science and Technology Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)
Inaba, H. (2007) A progress report on preparing “Guideline toprevention of heat disorder in everyday life.” Abstract ofPapers, the 10th Meeting of the BCRC, 5.
Kida, K. (2005) On the implementation of health-weather forecasting. Abstract of Open Seminar on Health-Weather
Relationships, Bioclima, held on 12 March 2005, 10. (inJapanese)
Koike, M. and R. Mori (1897) New textbook on hygiene.
Nankoudou, Tokyo. (in Japanese)
Landsberg, H. E. (1969) Weather and health. An introduction tobiometeorology. Doubleday, Garden City.
Marui, K. (1946) Seasons and mental disorders. Nippon-IshoShuppan, Tokyo. (in Japanese)
Maruta, N. and T. Tamura (2004) Seasonal changes of wearing
conditions today in Japan. Part 2; Prediction of the wearing
percentage of garments through weather data. Japanese
Journal of Biometeorology, 40 (S): 361-368. (in Japanesewith English abstract)
Matsubara, N., A. Gassho, Y. Kurazumi, T. Sawashima and Y.
Yamamoto (2004) Psychological effects of the visual stimuli
and the auditory stimuli on thermal sensation. Japanese
Journal of Biometeorology, 40 (S): 249-259. (in Japanesewith English abstract)
Matsumura, M. (2003) Spring-summer-autumn-winter anddisease warning. Bookhouse, Hiroshima. (in Japanese)
Matsumura, M. (2004) Myocardial infarction forecasting.
Presented at the Annual Meeting of BCRC, 12 March 2004.
Miller, D. H. (1989) Biometeorology in the six roles of Helmut
Landsberg from 1930 to 1985. Proc. 11th ISB-Congress, heldat West Lafayette USA, SPB Academic Published by The
Hague, The Netherlands, 15-22.
Momiyama, M. (1961) High winter mortality of “seasonal diseases.” Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 12: 163-179.
Momiyama, M. and H. Kito (1963) A geographical study ofseasonal disease calendar models by period and country.
Papers in Meteorology and Geophysics, 14: 1-11.
Mori, R. (1889) Army textbook of hygiene. Published by the
Army Medical School, (The Complete Works of Mori-Ougai,
Vol. 28, 28-116). (in Japanese)
Nihon-Iji-Nippo (2006) News, Nihon-Iji-Nippo, No. 4263, 7January 2006, 97. (in Japanese)
Nkemdirim, L. C. (2005) Climate, bio-environment and humanhealth. Keynote Speech, ICHES’05, held in Tokyo, 12
September 2005, 62-68.
Ohshige, K. (2007) Relationship between emergency transportcaused by stroke and weather. Abstract of papers, the 10th
Meeting of the BCRC, 9.
Ohshige, K., Y. Hori, O. Tochikubo and M. Sugiyama (2006)
Influence of weather on emergency transport events coded as
stroke: Population-based study in Japan. International

Studies on Bioclimate and Weather-Health Forecasting in Japan
Journal of Biometeorology, 50: 305-311.
Pirard, P., S. Vandentorren, M. Pascal, K. Laaidi, A. Le Tertre,
S. Cassadon and M. Ledrans (2005) Summary of the mortality impact assessment of the 2003 heat waves in France.
Euro surveillance, 10: 153-156.
Sakamoto-Momiyama, M. (1977) Seasonality in human mortality. Univ. of Tokyo Press, Tokyo.
Schar, C., P. L. Vidale, D. Luthi, C. Frei, C. Haberli, M. A.
Liniger and C. Appenzeller (2004) The role of increasing
temperature variability in European summer heat waves.
Nature, 427: 332-336.
Shoji, M. (1999) Correlation between seasons and influenza
epidemics. Journal of the National Institute of Public Health,
48: 282-290. (in Japanese with English abstract)
Shoji, M. (2003) Forecasting influenza occurrence in Japan.
Global Environmental Research (J), 8: 165-173. (in Japanese)
Shoji, M., K . Katayama and M. Takahashi (2004) Forecasting
2003-2004 for influenza occurrence by EXCEL (Report 2):
Basis of forecasting in Japan and its review in the season of
2003-2004. Rinsho-to-kenkyu, 81: 97-106. (in Japanese)
Sudo, Ch. (2005) The respiratory organs disease and weather.
Abstract for Open Seminar on Health-Weather Relationships,
Bioclima, held on 12 March 2005, 4.
Tamura, T. (2005) Clothing as a mobile environment for humanbeings – Prospects of clothing for the future –. The third
International Conference on Human-Environment System(ICHES’05) in Tokyo, Japan, 12-15 September 2005, 1-2.
Tamura, T. and N. Maruta (2004) Seasonal changes of wearing
conditions today in Japan. Part 1; Field survey of fixed point
observation method. Japanese Journal of Biometeorology, 40(S): 351-360. (in Japanese with English abstract)
Thomson, M. C., F. J. Doblas-Royes, S. J. Mason, R. Hagedorn,
S. J. Connor, T. Phindla, A. P. Morse and T. N. Palmer (2006)
Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasingfrom multi-model ensembles. Nature, 439/2, 576-579.
Voeikov, A. I. (1893) Study of climates for purposes of climatictherapy and hygiene.

31

Wang, H., M. Matsumura, M. Kakehashi and A. Eboshida(2006) Effects of atmospheric temperature and pressure on
the occurrence of acute myocardial infraction in Hiroshima
City, Japan. Hiroshima Journal of Medical Sciences, 55:
45-51.
Wen, K. (2004) History of Chinese meteorology. Meteorological Press, Beijing. (in Chinese)
World Meteorological Organization (1987) Climate and humanhealth. WCAP, WMO, 1-16.
Xu, J., A. Hoshi and T. Urabe (2004) A study on the relationship between meteorological elements and the occurrence ofstroke. Japanese Journal of Biometeorology, 40 (S): 261-271.
(in Japanese with English abstract)
Yoshino, M. (1980) The climatic regions of Japan. Erdkunde(Bonn), 34: 81-87.
Yoshino, M. (2002) Climatology of yellow sand (Asian sand,
Asian dust or Kosa) in East Asia. Science in China (Series D),
45 (S): 59-70.
Yoshino, M. (2003) Regional division of Japan by bioclimate.
Global Environmental Research (J), 8: 121-135. (in Japanese)
Yoshino, M. (2006) Treatment of bioweather information innews papers: An example of Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.
Presented at the 4th Advisors’ Meeting, BCRC, on 20
October, 2006. (in Japanese)
Yoshino, M. (2007) History of climatology. Kokon-shoin,
Tokyo. (in Japanese)
Yoshino, M., J. Suzuki, G. Shimizu and T. Yamamoto (2002)
Synoptic climatological studies on occurrence frequency of
dust storm and Kosa in East Asia. Global Environment Studies (J), 7: 243-254. (in Japanese)
Yoshino, M. and R. Miyashita (2004) Short history of “Bioclimate Study Group, Japan.” Japanese Journal of Biometeorology, 40 (S): 369-373. (in Japanese)
Yukiyama, Y. (2004) Seasonal weather change and rheumatic
diseases. Japanese Journal of Biometeorology, 40 (S):285-292. (in Japanese with English abstract)(Received 16 February 2007, Accepted 5 May 2007)