Draft Minutes of the joint SG-SWFDP –GIFS-TIGGE WG session
Wednesday, 24 February 2010, a.m.
Participants:
Bernard Strauss (France; chairperson of the SG-SWFDP), Ian Shepherd (Australia), Reinaldo
Silveira (Brazil), James Kongoti (Kenya), Yuki Honda (Japan), Steve Ready (New Zealand),
Eugene Poolman (South Africa), Ken Mylne (UK), John Guiney (USA), Erik Andersson (ECMWF),
Peter Chen (WMO), Alice Soares (WMO)
Zoltan Toth (USA; Co-chair of the GIFS-TIGGE WG ) Richard Swinbank (UK; Co-chair of the GIFS–TIGGE WG), David Richardson (UK), Jing Chen (China), Beth Ebert (Australia), Young-Youn
Park (Korea), Pedro Silva Dias (Brazil), Laurie Wilson (Canada), Kiyo Sato (Japan), Doug SchusterUSA), Laurent Descamps (France), Tiziana Paccagnella (Italy), Olivier Talagrand (France), Tetsuo
Nakazawa (Japan), Steve Ready (New Zealand), Aida Diongue-Niang (Senegal), Hui Yu (China),
David Parsons (WMO), David Burridge (WMO), Jim Caughey (WMO)

1.

Opening and Background

1.1
The joint SG-SWFDP – TIGGE-GIFS WG session was opened at 0900 hours on
Wednesday, 24 February 2010, in the WMO Headquarters, in Geneva Switzerland. Mr David
Burridge welcomed participants to the meeting and recalled that both CBS-XIV (March/April 2009)
and CAS-XV (November 2009) had recommended strengthening collaboration between the twogroups.
1.2
Following this recommendation, a joint session SG-SWFDP – GIFS-TIGGE WG was held
to discuss possible interactions of SWFDP with GIFS-Forecast Demonstration Projects andpotential benefits of innovative GIFS products for operational weather forecasting, and their addedvalue to those SWFDP regional subprojects that are in progress.
2.

Introduction to Framework Plan and links with SWFDP

2.1
Dr Richard Swinbank (Co-chair) of the GIFS-TIGGE WG presented an overview of theframework plan for a GIFS “forecast development project”. He noted that WWRP FDPs had been
instrumental in introducing research advances into operational forecasting practice. The GIFS“FDP” would transit THORPEX research into the operational community. New products would bedesigned, tested and evaluated in conjunction with the SWFDPs and other WWRP pilot projects.
The GIFS “FDP” would support FDPs, not be a (conventional) FDP in its own right. Recentdevelopments and future plans were summarised,TIGGE (2005 on) - scientific research based on the archive of ensemble forecasts.
GIFS development (2008-2012) - evaluation of prototype products based on ensemble data.
GIFS implementation (after 2012) - implementation of new real-time products and services.
The GIFS products will be designed to complement existing products and training on theuse/interpretation will be included.
2.2
It was expected that the GIFS work would bring to the SWPDPs new scientifically based
products, including multi-model ensemble products and products based on statistically corrected
and downscaled forecast data. Longer range outlooks would also be provided and all products
would be objectively assessed (in addition to subjective evaluation by forecasters)..
3.

SG-SWFDP Key Issues for GIFS-TIGGE

3.1
The chairperson of the CBS Steering Group of the Severe Weather Forecasting
Demonstration Project (SG-SWFDP), Mr Bernard Strauss, presented the SWFDP key issues for
GIFS-TIGGE identified by the SG-SWFDP. The meeting noted that a major issue for the SGSWFDP relates to the lack of knowledge by the group on the ability of combining data fromdifferent ensembles, and this has constrained the identification of requirements. Nevertheless, theSG-SWFDP developed a set of short- and long-term requirements.
Short-term Requirements
3.2
Noting that forecasting tropical convection is very important in severe weather prediction in
many of the participating countries in the SWFDP, and that the skill of global models at simulating
the phenomenon is not yet at the required level, the SG-SWFDP noted that research anddevelopment effort is required into better diagnostic methods, including: (a) feature-based
diagnostics (e.g. surface convergence zones) (b) more reliable model field indicators (e.g. midlevel moisture fields); and (c) better estimates of peak convective rainfall accumulations from gridbox parameterized mean values.
Long-term Requirements
3.3
The SG-SWFDP asked the GIFS-TIGGE WG to consider providing scientific guidance on
how to combine fields from the various ensembles composing the GIFS-TIGGE data base in ameaningful and useful manner. The SG-SWFDP was aware that further research work was neededin that respect, and that a significant period of time would certainly be required until the appropriate
guidance would be fully available.
3.4

The SG-SWFDP identified the following required information for tropical cyclone forecasting:(a)Position and intensity prediction (probabilistic);(b)
Probabilities relative to user defined thresholds (e.g. cyclone following and griddedprobabilities) for wind strength, quantitative precipitation, and storm surge;(c)Strike probabilities at user defined points; and(d)Probability of time of arrival of maximum rainfall and wind thresholds at user defined points.

3.5
The SG-SWFDP stated that on the long term an ultimate requirement from the GIFS would
be the availability of an interactive tool which would permit centres, especially regional centres, togenerate user driven products, depending on the nature of events and situations (e.g. products
using local SWFDP thresholds; interactive EPSgrams (locations, parameters), varying
combinations of ensembles, etc.).
Verification
3.6
The SG-SWFDP considers evaluation of forecasts a crucial part of the introduction of new
GIFS-TIGGE products into the SWFDP. A combination of objective verification techniques andfeedback obtained from forecasters and users is desirable. This would require getting access toconsistent observational data, and SERA impact data. A close liaison with the Joint WWRPWGNE WG on Forecast Verification Research will be required on defining methods for verificationof warnings which may be probabilistic or “low confidence over a large area”.
4.

Summary of the Discussions

4.0.1 The meeting agreed on an agenda for the joint session, which covers the following aspects:(1) Collaborating arrangements; (2) Tropical Cyclones; (3) Rainfall; (4) Timescales; (5) Training /Users; and (6) SERA – societal applications.

4.1

Collaborating Arrangements

4.1.1 The meeting agreed to take advantage of existing and planned activities, infrastructure andexperience, and wherever possible, GIFS developments be trialled in conjunction with CBS
regional SWFDPs. The meeting also agreed on collaborating arrangements to formally establish
liaison between the SWFDP and GIFS developments.
4.1.2 The SG-SWFDP agreed to better reflect this collaboration in the SWFDP Guidebook on
Developing Regional Subprojects, by incorporating the following statement:
The SWFDP will provide an opportunity to demonstrate and realise the benefits ofnew forecasting research through collaboration with the THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE
project. THORPEX (The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment)
is a 10-year programme to accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2week high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of humanity. GIFS-TIGGE isdeveloping new products, particularly from multi-model ensembles, and aims todevelop the new GIFS (Global Interactive Forecast System) by developing cascading
products in support of the SWFDP and involving the SERA (Societal and EconomicResearch & Applications) project to support effective propagation of benefits tosociety.
4.1.3 The meeting discussed effective ways to interact and collaborate. Noting that Mr Ken Mylne
has been representing CBS as an observer at the GIFS-TIGGE WG, and that some members ofthe two respective groups are from the same home organization, the meeting agreed that, inaddition, the liaison between the SWFDP and GIFS-TIGGE should be at two levels:(a)
At the Steering Group of the SWFDP (SG-SWFDP): a representative of the GIFS-TIGGE
Working Group participates at meeting(s) and in discussions by e-mail;(b)
At Regional Subprojects Management Teams and training events: inviting a representativefrom the GIFS-TIGGE WG to participate, when suitable.
4.1.4 The meeting noted that this approach would not require additional resources. Additional
representation, if required, will be decided by the chairperson of the SG-SWFDP in consultation
with the co-chairpersons of the GIFS-TIGGE WG. The meeting agreed that any communications
should be through the WMO Secretariat.
4.1.5 The meeting noted that joint SG-SWFDP – GIFS-TIGGE WG sessions are desirable
however these might only be practicable every so often.
4.2

Tropical Cyclones

4.2.1 Dr Nakazawa briefed the meeting on the NW Pacific Tropical Cyclone Project. He
described the real time flow of information and gave an outline of the data archive. Some of theproducts being generated and evaluated could be of interest to the SWFDPs – these included TC
best track, strike probability histograms and TC genesis probability.
4.2.2 The meeting agreed that developed products and tools from the GIFS-TIGGE TropicalCyclone Ensemble Track Information should feed into the SWFDP subprojects in Southern Africa
and in the South-west Pacific, however it expressed caution that these products should beevaluated at the regional level before transitioning into full operations and for wide use among all
participating centres in the SWFDP subprojects. The meeting therefore decided that at this stage,these tools should only be made available (via a password protected web site) to RSMCs,including those with specialization in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting, and TCWCs, which wouldevaluate the utility of such data sets in a forecasting environment, including for their regional
guidance production.

4.2.3 The meeting noted that tropical cyclone forecasters from participating countries in theSWFDP – Southern Africa and SWFDDP – South-west Pacific largely participate in their respective
Tropical Cyclone regional body sessions and in the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones.
In this context, the meeting recommended coordination with the Tropical Cyclone Programme(TCP). Recognizing that these events are the appropriate fora for exchange of information on
tropical cyclone ensemble forecast developments, and sharing expertise, the meeting agreed that
there was no need to nominate a focal point from the SWFDP regional subprojects to deal withtropical cyclone matters. However, the meeting expressed the importance of nominating a focal
point from GIFS-TIGGE WG (Mr Nakazawa (?)) to deal with the transition of TC developments into
operation and to liaise with TCP and SWFDP.
4.2.4 The meeting recognized that training will be needed on how to introduce the new products
into the forecasting process, along with their expected and demonstrated benefits. The meeting
agreed to address this issue in a broader context under item 4.5.
4.3

Rainfall

4.3.1 The discussion was focussed on verification aspects. The meeting noted that there had
been very limited verification done on any of the global centre products contributing to the SWFDP.
The meeting noted that the SG-SWFDP strongly recommended that the global centres contributing
to the SWFDP take responsibility for verification of the products they supply to the subprojects,including the new GIFS-TIGGE products that might become available, as far as the GTS surface
observations and possibly other observations they already have in their possession allow it.
NMHSs participating in the SWFDP subprojects are encouraged to participate with the globalcentres in verification activities, and to contribute additional surface observation data, both in realtime and delayed mode (via ftp).
4.4

Timescales

4.4.1 Based on discussions under the previous agenda items, the meeting agreed on a possible
timeframe for introducing the GIFS-TIGGE products into the SWFDP, as follows:(a)

For Tropical Cyclone data sets – 1 year;(b)

For rainfall and wind – 2 to 3 years, depending on the availability of observational data sets.

4.4.2 The meeting stressed the need to engage forecasters in the overall process of transitioning
the new GIFS-TIGGE products in to operations, particularly to ensure that the new products meetthe forecast needs and to prepare the forecasters for their use.
4.5

Training / Users

4.5.1 The meeting agreed that training is necessary to ensure that forecasters from RSMCs andNMHSs are able to correctly interpret the various GIFS-TIGGE products that will be made available
for the SWFDP regional subproject.
4.5.2 The meeting was informed of the SWFDP training practices, including (1) the yearly 2-weektraining events, encompassing one week training on NWP, EPS and Meteosat satellite nowcasting
applications and a second week focussed on PWS activities; and (2) in-country visits, especially tocentres with limited human resources (forecasters) and limited capability to pass on the training
locally. The meeting was also informed of the on-going ECMWF forecaster training for WMO
Members on the use of ECMWF products, and of the new training material, entitled: “On theoperational use of products from the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)” by Anders
Persson (consultant) and Tim Hewson (ECMWF).

4.5.3 The meeting recommended that sessions on the use of the new GIFS-TIGGE products beincorporated into SWFDP training events, and agreed that experts from the GIFS-TIGGE WG
contribute to the training by developing appropriate material and/or participating in the events as alecturer.
4.6

SERA – Societal Applications

4.6.1 The meeting noted that the second week of the SWFDP 2-week training events is focussed
on PWS activities, including building new and strengthening existing relationships between
forecasters and disaster managers, and with the media. The meeting agreed that these events
could provide an appropriate mechanism for addressing SERA and recommended that WWRPSERA WG experts be invited to these events.
5.

Closing

5.1

The joint session closed at 12:30 hours on Wednesday, 24 February 2010.