CAMS plans and current status
and the link to CO2 estimates innational GHG inventories
Atmosphere Monitoring

Richard Engelen
Deputy Director of CAMS

Converting science into user-driven services
AtmosphereMonitoringEU Climate Law as part of EU Green Deal
Atmosphere
Monitoring

Set the long-term direction of travel for meeting the 2050
climate neutrality objective through all policies, in a socially fairand cost-efficient manner
Set a more ambitious EU 2030 target, to set Europe on a
responsible path to becoming climate-neutral by 2050
Create a system for monitoring progress and take further actionif needed

Copernicus can contribute to an EU-coordinated capability for
detecting and monitoring global super-emitters, principally via its
Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)E u r o p e a n C o m m i s s i o n C O 2 M o n i t o r i n g Ta s k F o r c e
Atmosphere
Monitoring

Vision and strategy(2015)

Building blocks andimplementation(2017)
Role andrequirements forin-situ data (2019)2020

Developing a new Copernicus emission monitoring service
Atmosphere
Monitoring

An integrated system approachbased on experience in NWP
and air quality monitoring &forecasting.
Same system (in potentialdifferent configurations) for
greenhouse gases andatmospheric pollutants.

EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS

5

High-level aims
AtmosphereMonitoring

From: Janssens-Maenhout et al., 2020

An operational service
AtmosphereMonitoring• Operational long-term perspective• Continuous monitoring for fast-response information• Re-processing for most accurate observation-based information• Worldwide country/regional scales and facility/city scales• Evaluation & quality control• User support• Contributing to CEOS, WMO, and other international coordination efforts

Timeline of CAMS Emission Services
Atmosphere
Monitoring

Sentinel 5

CO2 Mission

Sentinel 5p

Air Quality emissions

2025

Sentinel 4
SATELLITE MISSIONS

Operational
ramp-up in CAMS

CO2 TASK FORCEGUIDANCE DOCUMENTSSERVICECOMPONENTS

2026

CO2 Monitoring & Verification Support (CO2MVS)

2019
2015

2022

2017
2021

OBSERVATIONSPRIOR INFORMATION

Satellite CO2 & CH4
Observations
Sentinel & international
constellation

CO2 fluxes, model
parameters, emission
reports, economicstatistics

INTEGRATION
Global integration& attribution
Evaluation& quality control2017

Auxiliary observationsof CO2 , NO2 ,night lights, …

RESEARCH AND
PREPARATORYPROJECTS

Option for actionablemeasures at country
and city scale

Surface and airborne
observations

MeteorologicalObservations
Satellite & in-situ

2018

DECISION SUPPORTSYSTEM

Hot spot
Integration &attribution

OUTPUT
Consolidated
Country/region fossil
fuel emissions withuncertainties
Consolidated
Hot-spot fossil
fuel emissions withuncertainties

Research & Innovation to support implementation
Atmosphere
Monitoring

Horizon 2020

Greenhouse gases

Atmospheric pollutants

Horizon Europe

AVENGERS EYE-CLIMA PARIS
Greenhouse gases

Atmospheric pollutants

Some examples of current development
AtmosphereMonitoring•••••••

Development of global mosaic emission data set(CoCO2)
Development of temporal profiles based on countryspecific information (CoCO2)
Development of emission models (CoCO2)
Collaboration with Carbon Monitor

Development of CO2M
mission (ESA, EUMETSAT)
Increased use of in situ data
(ICOS-Cities, CORSO)
Use of other satellite data(CORSO)••••

This is merely a sample of R&D activities
relevant for the building blocks.

Development of global dataassimilation system (CoCO2)
Development of plumeestimation systems (CoCO2)
Development of regional
benchmark system (CAMS, ICOSCities)
Evaluation & quality control(CoCO2, CAMS)•Interface to policy users(VERIFY, CoCO2, CAMS,Global Carbon Project)•

Operational and prototype
data products (CAMS,CoCO2, VERIFY)
Access to data (CAMS)•

Development of improved emission inventories
Atmosphere
Monitoring

Global mosaic dataset with regional inventories
for various parts of the world (lead: Ruben
Urraca-Valle, JRC).
High-resolution (1x1km) emission dataset
for part of Europe (lead: Stijn Dellaert, TNO).

Plume detection
Atmosphere
Monitoring

New methodologies to denoise a noisy XCO2 satellite image. (EMPA)

Prototype examples – CO2 and CH4
Atmosphere
Monitoring

Retrieved CO2 emission values vs. EDGAR
inventory values for OCO-2 (left) and OCO-3(right). Each case is represented by theinternational 3-letter code of the country where
the enhancement is located. The orange line is
the regression line in base 10 logarithm. (CEA,Chevallier et al., submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett.)

Using ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)
to estimate emissions. Regional annualanthropogenic CH4 emissions plotted against theposterior adjustment in emissions, as a percentage ofthe prior. (ECMWF, Adapted from McNorton et al.,2022)

Uncertainties – Ensemble of Data Assimilation
Atmosphere
Monitoring

MeanSpread

Atmospheric concentrations

Emission scaling factors

Current operational products: AFOLU flux estimates
Atmosphere
Monitoring

In-situ based
estimates
Satellite-based
estimates
Reported
estimates

Annual CO2 flux from the Agricultural, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector in ten large countries
or groups of countries estimated by the 1-σ uncertainty envelope of the two CAMS atmospheric inversions.
CAMS/CoCO2, Frederic Chevallier, LSCE

User engagement for co-designed user services
Atmosphere
Monitoring•

Provide monitoring information to EC•

Support member states with nationalemission estimates•

Support member states with input datafor national activities•

Support EEA with verification of member
state national estimates•

Support developing countries withemission estimates•

Support downstream commercial
activities with operational monitoring

The air quality analogy
Atmosphere
Monitoring

User feedback led to much improved
services over the last decade.

Monitoring of regulatory
threshold exceedanceswith in-situ observations• Daily national-scale air quality forecasts• Annual re-assessments of previous year
• Rapid analysis of air quality episodes
based on the combination of models andobservations

Working with national inventory agencies
AtmosphereMonitoring

Already good discussions and interactions
with various EU member states.

Conclusions
AtmosphereMonitoring• Interaction with users during development of new services iscritical. This is an iterative process!
• Global coordination efforts, such as WMO, CEOS, GCOS, andGEO, is important. Requires proper benchmarking and quality
control.
• Think out of the box! Not everything will work (as expected), but
knowledge supports decision making and the more the better.

Thank you

Atmosphere Monitoring