47

Macroscopic Design of Measures to Realise Low-Carbon Land-Use
Transport Systems in Asian Developing Cities
Kazuki NAKAMURA*, Yoshitsugu HAYASHI and Hirokazu KATO
Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University,
Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8603, Japan*e-mail: k.naka@urban.env.nagoya-u.ac.jp

Abstract
Developing a low-carbon system has become an important constraint in land-use transport planning.
Although many cities in Asian developing countries have not prioritised the development of low-carbon
land-use transport systems yet, their rapid economic growth increases their responsibility for CO2 emissions
from transport. In order to realise such systems, it will be necessary to introduce advanced technologies anddrastic land-use transport measures actively in a leap-frog manner. Such a policy package can be comprehensively designed with strategies to avoid unnecessary travel demand, shift travel to lower-carbon modes
and improve the intensity of transport-related emissions, as part of the thus-named ASI (Avoid, Shift,
Improve) framework. This paper proposes a backcasting method to design measures macroscopically within
the ASI framework for the realisation of a low-carbon land-use transport system in the long-term future of
Asia’s developing cities. This method sets a future vision of a land-use transport system with instrumental
measures suitable for Asian developing cities, such as transit development (shift), land-use development
control (avoid), and vehicle technology advancement (improve). Then, it applies a macroscopic urban modelfor the approximate estimation of long-term changes in transport demand and for capturing the necessarylevel and timing of measures to achieve the challenging CO2 mitigation target by 2050 in megacities. This
paper also discusses opportunities for advancing macroscopic urban models further for a more comprehensive
design of measures for Asian developing cities by clarifying the existing limitations of the model.
Key words: Asian developing city, backcasting, low-carbon land-use transport system, macroscopic urban
model

1. Introduction
In coming decades, significant growth in CO2 emissions is expected to be caused by Asian developing
countries. While they still have many low-carbon cities inthe early stage of motorisation, their rapid economic
growth could cause more serious environmental problems than developed countries. The growth in thetransport sector is notably larger than that in other sectors.
In particular, the level of transport-related CO2 emissions
depends on the level of motorisation. Thus, it is an important and urgent issue to decouple growth in CO2emissions from economic growth by designing measures
to develop a low-carbon land-use transport system. Sucha system should be developed in a leap-frog manner byextensively applying advanced technologies along withstrong intervention in land-use transport planning.
Transport planning in Asian developing cities, however, takes insufficient account of these issues. To reduce
traffic congestion caused by growing motorisation, many
Global Environmental Research
17/2013: 47-60
printed in Japanof their transport policies have prioritised road development over railway development. Road development
could contribute to a reduction in traffic congestion if
roads are used mainly by mass-transit systems, such as
buses. This approach, however, often encourages moreprivate car traffic in the long term and consequently more
CO2 emissions. Recently, although they have increased
their investment in railway infrastructure development,
the level of development is still overwhelmed by that ofroad development. Furthermore, a lack of land-use planning has resulted in promotion of urban sprawl in an
unplanned manner, which makes car use more convenient. The existing approach is far from the leap-frog
development of a low-carbon transport system. This
failure may result in significant damage not only to theenvironment and but also to the economy through more
serious congestion.
A backcasting approach would be useful for designing measures necessary for the realisation of a lowcarbon land-use transport system in the long-term future.
©2013 AIRIES

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K. NAKAMURA et al.

Traditionally, land-use transport planning has paid more
attention to short-term measures by estimating theirprobable impacts on existing urban land-use transportsystems as a forecasting approach. On the other hand, as
more countries are required to set challenging long-termtargets for CO2 mitigation, it has become more important
to identify the measures necessary to achieve them byusing a backcasting approach. This approach has been
applied in various fields for the last 20 years, and wasintroduced into transport research in the late ‘90s
(POSSUM, 1998; OECD, 2000). More recently, the
VIBAT <http://www.vibat.org/index.shtml> project has
quantitatively analysed low-carbon transport systems
with this approach by testing the possibility of emissions
mitigation under scenarios combining technologicalimprovement and behavioural change.
There are two key aspects to a backcasting approach:setting future visions of transport systems and designingpolicy packages to realise these visions (Banister &Hickman, 2011). The policies are generally classified
into three types of low-carbon transport strategies: toavoid unnecessary travel demand (AVOID), to shift travel
to lower-carbon modes (SHIFT) and to improve theintensity of transport-related emissions (IMPROVE).
These strategies were originally proposed as the ASI
framework (GTZ, 2007), and since then, they havebecome popular in academic research and policy making.
Various policy and technology options in the ASI
framework were summarised in a project called CUTE
(Comparative study on Urban Transport and theEnvironment) conducted by WCTRS (World Conference
on Transport Research Society) SIG11 for Transport andEnvironment. The CUTE project classified them further
as instruments in a systematic way as the CUTE matrix(Nakamura et al., 2004).
This study aims at proposing a method of macroscopic design of long-term measures within the ASI
framework to realise low-carbon land-use transport systems which would be generally applicable to Asiandeveloping cites. First, it summarises the conceptual
framework of how to design measures suitable for Asiandeveloping cities using a backcasting approach. Then it
applies a macroscopic urban model to backcasting thenecessary levels of transit development and urban
compaction, given technology advancement, to achieve
the target of 70% CO2 mitigation from passenger cars in
Bangkok, Beijing, Shanghai and Delhi from 2005 to
2050. Finally, it discusses how to develop tools for comprehensive design of measures for Asian developing
cities by advancing a macroscopic urban model.

former is a fixed background scenario based on future
prospects, the latter can be controlled by patterns of policy implementation. A socioeconomic vision covers
expected trends of economic and population growth andtargets for benefits to be achieved by the development ofa future land-use transport system. It is suggested thatlarge-scale economic growth is expected in Asian developing countries for the next few decades. On the other
hand, population growth may be relatively limited as theshift toward an ageing society accelerates. For instance,
the UN world population forecast (2010) shows that the
population in Thailand may start decreasing from 2035.
The targeted benefits include not only CO2 mitigation
for climate change, but also reduced air pollution, traffic
noise and traffic accidents, with increased mobility,
amenities and so on, as co-benefits (POSSUM, 1998;
OECD, 2000; Herran & Matsumoto, 2012). Although all
the benefits should be comprehensively taken into account in the assessment for development, which benefits
should be prioritised depends on social acceptance.
Research on low-carbon transport systems is generallyinterested in CO2 mitigation and mobility improvement.
Nevertheless, while many Asian developing countries
care about air pollution as a cause of health problems,
CO2 mitigation has received much less attention. Moreover, as their transport planning is likely to prioritise
mobility improvement through time saving with conventional cost-benefit assessments, it does not favour lowcarbon transport measures which would compromise
economic growth. Banister (2011) pointed out the limitation of such conventional assessments in a backcasting
approach, and suggested that it is more important toassume a future scenario based on a different ideology
from the current situation, in which the necessity of CO2
mitigation would be generally recognised even in Asiandeveloping countries.
Economic growth may also change travel behaviour
through changes in demand for mobility. In the earlystages of urban growth, a trend toward motorisation isclearly shown with a significant increase in car ownership both in developed and developing countries. On theother hand, in large, developed cities in Japan and Europe,

2. Framework for Designing Measures to
Realise a Low-carbon Urban Transport
System
2.1 A vision of the future socioeconomic background
Future visions of transport systems consist of A) one
for the socioeconomic background and B) another forphysical land-use transport systems (Fig. 1). While theFig. 1 Framework for designing measures to realise a low-carbon
land-use transport system for Asian developing cities.

Macroscopic Design of Measures to Realise Low-Carbon Land-Use Transport Systems

per-capita car ownership has recently started to decline.
This implies that preferences for transport modes become
increasingly diverse according to urban growth. Such behavioural changes may be attributed to economic growth
and the development of land-use transport systems.
2.2 A vision of a low-carbon urban transport system
and measures to realise it
Various visions of low-carbon transport systems havebeen analysed in previous studies, paying more attention
to changes in transport demand and vehicle technologies(POSSUM, 1998; OECD, 2000; Hickman & Banister,
2007; Crozet & Lopez-Ruiz, 2010). These visions are
generally based on a decrease in travel distance, an increase in public transport use, and advancement of LEV(Low-Emission Vehicle) technology, corresponding to
the strategies of avoid, shift and improve. The Institution
for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS, 2011) examined thebalances of necessary policy implementation among the
ASI strategies by global region, taking account of thelocal contexts of planning policies and technology levels.
However, these studies do not sufficiently specify
instruments to realise visions of low-carbon land-use
transport systems by identifying the necessary amount ofpolicy implementation rather than simply assumingchanges in transport demand. This may be attributed tothe uncertain relationship between supply and demand in
a future land-use transport system. As instruments are
more useful for decision makers in planning, it isimportant to set physical visions with more specificmeasures, such as the levels of urban compaction (avoid),
public transport networks (shift) and LEV penetration(improve) (Fig. 2).
Measures for ASI strategies are classified by the
CUTE matrix into technological, regulatory, informational and economic instruments. What combination of
measures would be more desirable for Asian developing
cities is decided mainly by the level of economic growth
and the existing land-use transport system. Technologicaland regulatory instruments may be more effective for49them because they need to expand transport capacity forgrowing demand in a planned way in the early stages ofurban growth (Hayashi et al., 2011; Nakamura & Hayashi,2012). Typical transport measures are reviewed below to
identify what measures would be suitable for Asiandeveloping cities (Table 1), considering their contexts.
a) AVOID
High-density development has been strategicallyintroduced along transit lines in some developed cities. In
Japan, urban railway companies have taken the initiative
to develop new towns around their lines to secure railway
ridership since the early 20th century. Singapore andCuritiba implemented development plans to expand thecity by concentrating land-use development along newlydeveloped mass-transit lines with help of strong regulation of land-use control from the 1970s (Goodman et al.,2006). These can be seen as early examples of Transit
Oriented Development (TOD).
However, urban sprawl has been overwhelming due
to rapid growth of motorisation in Asian developing
countries. In the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR),
the built-up area has expanded by four times during thelast 40 years. This is attributed to weak land-use control
and lack of coordination between agencies in transport
planning and land-use planning. Nevertheless, while theeffects of such compact development on CO2 mitigation
are suggested to be limited in developed cities (TRB,
Table 1 CUTE matrix measures suitable for Asian developing
cities.

Fig. 2 Approach to setting a vision of a low-carbon land-use transport system.

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K. NAKAMURA et al.

2009), they may be more effective in Asian developing
cities which are likely to have an exceptionally large
amount of prospective development in the early stages ofurban growth. Once development takes place in a
sprawling manner, it requires much more money andtime to regulate land use in built-up areas. Thus, earlier
compact development may be much more effective indeveloping cities than in developed cities.
b) SHIFT
While many transport policies in Asian developing
countries have prioritised road development, megacities
have started to develop large-scale urban railway networks since the late 20th century. In Bangkok, the development of urban railways has amounted to approximately 80 km with further planned extension of the totallines to 500 km by 2030. Shanghai has developed thelargest-scale underground network in the world, 420 km
in total as of 2010, and it is still being developed throughfurther extensions. Hosting international mega events,
such as the Olympics in Beijing and the EXPO in
Shanghai, has significantly contributed to such largescale developments.
Mega infrastructure development is not always
affordable, however. In particular, as Asian developing
countries may become ageing societies by 2050, tax revenue may become less available for such investment. Bus
Rapid Transit (BRT), which is a bus system with anextensive network of dedicated lanes, is popular amongdeveloping cities as a low-cost mass-transit mode. Whilea BRT network is as large as an urban railway network, it
does not need extensive infrastructure construction.
Moreover, BRT can be flexibly integrated with railway
trunk lines and feeder buses to form a hierarchical transport network. Thus, it can provide a city-wide transportsystem at a reasonable cost, which amounts to around
10%-30% of that of a normal urban railway. Technically,
BRT is not categorised as railway development, butrather needs road development for bus lanes. Nevertheless, BRT and railways have a similar characteristic inthat both use dedicated transit space. Furthermore, mostroads are initially developed for private cars. Thus, thisstudy includes BRT development in railway development,
in which development of on-road BRT lanes is regarded
as railway development.
BRT was introduced into Curitiba, Brazil, in 1974 as
the earliest example, and into Bogota in 2000. Thesesystems have successfully shifted car use to BRT use
with less reliance on public subsidies (Robinovitch &Hoehn, 1995; Goodman et al., 2006; Hidalgo, 2008).
BRT has become popular in Asian developing cities. It isreported that approximately half of the world’s BRT systems are currently operated in Asia, including Chinese
cities, Bangkok and Jakarta (Sutomo et al., 2012).
Jakarta’s BRT, which was opened in 2004, has beendeveloped to the largest-scale network in the world.
c) IMPROVE
The improve strategy depends less on planning, butmore on technology levels, as vehicle technologies have
kept improving for lower CO2 emissions. Conventionally,
the regulation of emissions standards has been introduced
into many Asian countries. However, CO2 is unlikely to
be covered by these emissions standards. In Japan, both
fuel economy and emission intensity have been regulated
by a top-runner programme, in which the latest technology levels are set as minimum requirements for future
production in five years. These regulations have helped
to develop low-emission vehicles, such as EVs and HVs.
Recently, economic instruments to promote lowemission vehicles have become increasingly popular in
combination with regulatory instruments. Asian car
industries have been strong, led by Japan and Korea, andhave become stronger with the growing market in developing countries, particularly China. The high potential of
LEV development is recognised by governments withstrong support. In Japan, the government has provided
subsidies and tax discounts for purchasing low-emission
vehicles. Thanks to them, the number of HVs was doubled from 2009 to 2010. The high level of vehicle
technologies may increase their availability for nearby
Asian developing countries.
2.3 Modelling long-term impacts of measures on
CO2 emissions from urban transport
In order to identify the level of measures necessary
for realising a low-carbon land-use transport system,
their long-term impacts on CO2 emissions from urban
transport need to be estimated. Although there are various co-benefits, this study focuses on CO2 mitigation as a
primary concern in modelling.
As land-use and transport databases are not wellestablished in Asian developing cities, transport-related
CO2 emissions have been estimated in a simple way.
Comparative studies on CO2 emissions among international cities have been likely to analyse the crosssectional relationship between factors of an urban landuse transport system affecting emissions, as in thewell-known relationship between population density andenergy consumption (Newman & Kenworthy, 1989).
Kaya’s Identity (1990) simply accounted for the level ofemissions with population, GDP per capita, energy use
per unit of GDP and emissions per unit of energy consumed. In a similar way, key factors affecting transportrelated emissions are identified as trip generation (travel
distance), car dependency (modal split) and technology
level (emission factor), which respectively correspond to
the avoid, shift and improve strategies. Each trip generation and car dependency factor needs to be further
broken down to more detailed factors of the land-use
transport system affecting them, such as railway/roaddevelopment, car ownership, built-up area and density.
These approaches, however, do not sufficiently consider paths of the dynamic nature of changes in a land-use
transport system. The paths reflect the development process of a land-use transport system and consequentchanges in travel behaviours. Transport infrastructuredevelopment and spatial development are long-term pro-

Macroscopic Design of Measures to Realise Low-Carbon Land-Use Transport Systems

cesses, which makes them almost irreversible. Earlier
implementation of measures in land-use transport planning would make it more possible to realise paths forlower emissions, and vice versa. The study on Japanesecities found that cities with more railway development
had lower rates of expansion of built-up areas (Nakamura
et al., 2011a). While there are already differences in thepaths of Asian developing cities from developed cities
due to differences in existing land-use transport systems,
prospective economic growth could lead to a wide rangeof changes in their future paths. Therefore, the causality
mechanism of dynamic changes in a land-use transportsystem needs to be captured by identifying key factors
affecting trip generation, car dependency and technology
level (Fig. 3).
To model these dynamic changes, an urban model
could be useful for a backcasting analysis, as well as for a
forecasting analysis. Urban models have been establishedthat are well able to capture the causality mechanism ofland-use transport changes, as in land-use transportmodels. These models range from simplified macroscopic models using aggregate data to detailed microscopic models using disaggregate data. The former
model is advantageous for analysis of the impact of economic growth on travel demand thanks to better coverageof data, while differences in individual behaviours can bebetter considered by the latter model.
Nevertheless, urban models are poorly developed forlong-term estimation of travel demand, which is required
more by backcasting analyses. Wegener (2010) modelled
the impacts of fuel price rises on long-term changes intravel behaviours by applying constraints of cost andtime budgets for individual travel as relatively stableindicators over the long term to a microscopic urban
mode. However, the analysis is designed for case-study
analyses with extensive data on individual travel behaviour. It is not easy to collect such detailed data in Asiandeveloping cities.
Moreover, in developing the model for long-term
estimation, it is more important to set a scenario of

51

behavioural changes in the long-term future than tocalibrate parameters for them with current data. Particularly in Asian developing countries, analysis relying on
current data is inappropriate for representing drasticchanges in land-use transport systems. A model forbackcasting is aimed not at improving the accuracy of
forecasting, as in conventional models, but at illustrating
the range of future scenarios, based on the assumptionthat the long-term future is uncertain. Crozet (2010)
developed a nationwide transport model for France,
which introduced explanatory scenarios of long-term
behavioural changes in travel. Nevertheless, the scenarios were too hypothetical, directly setting transportdemand to capture the impact of measures on transportdemand.
On the other hand, a scenario of long-term behavioural changes in Asian developing cities can be designedby referring to the experience of developed cities.
Although the rate of economic growth in Asian developing countries is expected to be larger than that experienced in Japan for the past 40 years, their forecast of
per-capita GDP in 2050 is not beyond the current level ofJapan (Fujimori et al., 2011). Thus, it is reasonable toassume that the general mechanism of motorisation
would be similar between developing and developed
countries. If Asian developing cities invest in public
transport development, such as railway and BRT, at acomparable level to Japanese cities, taking advantage of
economic growth, a corresponding drastic shift to public
transport use may be expected.

3. Application of a Macroscopic Urban Modelto Backcasting Necessary Measures
3.1 Case study cities
This study develops a simplified macroscopic urban
model to represent the long-term paths of changes in key
factors of a land-use transport system for the period up
to 2050. The case study cities are Bangkok, Beijing,
Shanghai and Delhi as Asian mega-cities with rapid eco-Fig. 3 Dynamic tracking of transport-related CO2 emission mechanism (WCTRS, 2011).

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K. NAKAMURA et al.

nomic growth. The population of these cities is more than
10 million people. Nevertheless, they have chosen completely different development processes from Japanesecities for their land-use transport systems.
In Asian developing megacities, car ownership ismuch higher than it was in Tokyo in the motorisation
period at the same economic level of Gross Regional
Product (GRP) (Fig. 4), despite their similar levels of city
size. There are two key reasons for this: road-oriented
development and urban sprawl. The level of roaddevelopment is comparable between Asian developing
cities and Japanese cities (Fig. 5). While Bangkok andShanghai still have a lower level of development thanTokyo, those in Delhi and Beijing are higher. Despite thehigh level of road development, the capacity in Bangkok
does not keep up with the growth of road traffic demand
and roads are fully packed with cars (Hayashi, 1996).
On the other hand, Asian developing megacities havemuch lower levels of urban railway development thanTokyo. Asian developing cities have significant growth
in railway development, as Beijing and Shanghai havedoubled the number of stations from 2005 to 2009
(Fig. 6). Nevertheless, despite the growth, their station
density in built-up areas is much lower than in Tokyo,
1.26 (stations/km2), and Nagoya, 0.59 (stations/km2).
Although extensive extension of urban railways to 509
km is planned in Bangkok by 2030, the prospective
station density would be only 0.29.
Road-oriented development promotes urban sprawl
by extensively improving mobility in the suburbs. Indeed,
many Asian developing cities are still high-density, lowcarbon cities in the middle of urban growth. In Shanghai
and Delhi, population density in built-up areas is morethan 20,000 (people/km2), which is higher than the density of Tokyo, which has around 15,000 (people/km2) in
2005. However, urban sprawl is more serious in Bangkok
and Beijing, which are relatively low-density, witharound 10,000 and 13,000 people/km2, respectively.
3.2 Model flow
A simplified macroscopic urban model has beendeveloped to estimate the impact of economic growth on
CO2 emissions from passenger cars in the case study
cities (Nakamura et al., 2011b). Figure 7 shows the inputoutput flow of this macroscopic urban model. The model
is designed to analyse the long-term impacts on CO2
mitigation of urban mass-transit development (shift),land-use development control (avoid), and vehicle technology advancement (improve). Mass-transit modes
include urban railways and BRT. The dynamic process of
motorisation and urban sprawl according to economic
growth is modelled to estimate travel demand, considering the impacts of transit development and land-use
development control to slow the process. After that, CO2
emissions from passenger cars are estimated from thetravel demand and given emission factors based on atechnology advancement scenario. This model is run foreach five-year period from 2005 to 2050.
To develop the model, this study used the JapaneseFig. 4 Changes in car ownership according to economic growth.

Fig. 5 Changes in road development according to economic
growth.

Fig. 6 Changes in railway development according to economic
growth. (built-up area fixed at the 2005 level)

panel data of these factors from travel surveys andstatistics for eleven large Japanese cities. The model wasdeveloped with city-level panel data on Japanese cities
over the 40 years from the 1960s to 2000s as their motorisation period under the assumption that Asian developing
cities would show similar long-term changes in travel
behaviour due to development of land-use transport

Macroscopic Design of Measures to Realise Low-Carbon Land-Use Transport Systems

systems during economic growth. The advantage of thismodel is better applicability without detailed input data,
which are unlikely to be available in Asian developing
cities.
3.2.1 Car ownership model
The mechanism of motorisation is modelled in such a
way that economic growth, road development and urban
sprawl increase car ownership (1 in Fig. 7). Car ownership C (cars per capita) is estimated by the model expressed in equation (1) using population density d, road
length per capita r and household income standardised by
vehicle price I. The upper part of the equation represents
potential demand for cars with the Cobb-Douglass-typefunction of low density and road development. Car
ownership is affected not only by the potential demand
but also by affordability. Thus, the bottom part of theequation represents the logistic function of income level.
The γ parameters decide the impacts of these factors on
car ownership.
C = γ1 ⋅ r

γ2

⋅d

−γ 3

(1 + γ 4 ⋅ exp (− γ 5 ⋅ I ))53

cle use chrmc, car ownership C for car use chrcar, andstation density in built-up areas stb for railway use chrrail.
The share of bus use is estimated as the remaining shareof public transport minus the share of railways. Motorcycle ownership MC is assumed to decrease according toeconomic growth, as people increasingly prefer cars inprivate transport. The parameter π represents the impactof each characteristic on the modal share. The model isdeveloped with data on railway use, but it intends torepresent use of mass-transit modes, including BRT. In
the model, while car use is increased by growth in car
ownership, transit use is increased by transit development.
Pm = exp(π m1 ⋅ chrm + π m 2 ) ∑ exp(π k1 ⋅ chrk + π k 2 )k =1, 2chrwalk = dchrcar = C
chrmc = MC(2)chrrail = st b

(1)

The parameters of models (1) and (2) are calibrated
by regression analysis using the panel data of Japan’slargest cities (Toga et al., 2010) and are adjusted to matchthe existing data of Asian cities.
3.2.2 Modal split model
An increase in car ownership leads to an increase in
car use (2 in Fig 7). The model estimates the aggregate
modal share Pm of each transport mode m with theircity-wide characteristics chrm (2). It uses a set of binary
logit models: a choice between walking and motorisedmodes, one between private and public transport modes,
one between cars and motorcycles, and one between
conventional buses and urban railways. The city-wide
characteristics chrm include population density d forwalking chrwalk, motorcycle ownership MC for motorcy-

As in the car ownership model, this model uses
long-term Japanese data for calibration. Car use is likely
to be higher in Asian developing cities than in Japanesecities at the same economic level. Thus, the initial valuesof vehicle price and the mode parameters πm2 are adjusted
to meet the current level of preference for each mode. For
long-term forecasts, the model assumes that transit use
becomes more popular as the networks are developed
further. Accordingly, the parameters are set to be changed
proportionally to the ratio of station density in Bangkok
to that in Tokyo in 2005.
3.2.3 Urban sprawl model
Urban sprawl is modelled (3 in Fig. 7) by estimating
growth in built-up areas ΔSb according to growth inpopulation ΔPOP and standardised income ΔI in equation (3), in a way that leads to lower population density

Fig. 7 Model flow of the macroscopic urban model.

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K. NAKAMURA et al.

(Nakamura et al., 2011a). On the other hand, transit
development could slow sprawl according to the numberof stations sth in habitable areas by locating more people
around stations. By modelling the growth rate, rather
than the built-up areas themselves, it can capture thecumulative change in built-up areas, which are hard to
reduce once developed. This is a linear regression model,
in which the parameter σ represents the impact of eachfactor on growth in built-up areas. As in the previous
models, this model uses long-term Japanese data forcalibration. Population density can be calculated from theestimated built-up areas. To model the interaction
between urban sprawl and motorisation, the estimatedpopulation density is fed back to the car ownership model(1) and the modal split model (2). Land-use development
control can be introduced into the amount of new
development by controlling the percentage of development not allowed to expand built-up areas and lower
population density.
ΔSb = δ1 ⋅ ΔPOP + δ 2 ⋅ ΔI − δ 3 ⋅ sth + δ 4(3)

In this model, the urban structure is simply captured
using the total built-up area and the average population
density of a city, without considering their spatial distribution. To take account of urban structure, the model
can also be advanced by introducing a spatial model toestimate the location choices of the population by modal
split. In the model for Bangkok (Nakamura et al., 2012),
household location behaviours of rail users and non-railusers are modelled for the proximity to stations based on
the different preferences.
3.2.4 Car travel distance model
The expansion of built-up areas makes travel distancelonger (4 in Fig. 7). The car trip distance lcar is estimatedwith a linear regression model, using the inputs ofbuilt-up area Sb and road length per capita r in equation(4). The parameter χ represents the impacts of thesefactors on car-travel length, with calibration fromlong-term data (Nakamura et al., 2011a).
l car = χ 1 ⋅ S b + χ 2 ⋅ r + χ 3(4)

3.2.5 Emission factor model
CO2 emission factors are estimated based on traffic
congestion, fuel economy and LEV penetration (5 in Fig.
7). Traffic congestion is modelled in a simple way toestimate the average on-road vehicle speed v with asingle-linear function, using a variable to represent thebalance between demand of the total car distance Lcar andsupply of the total road length R in equation (5), alongwith the parameter ε for the impact on the speed.
⎛ R ⎞⎟ + ε2v = ε1 ⋅ ln⎜⎜⎟
⎝ Lcar ⎠Lcar = C ⋅ lcar
CFe=f (v , tec )The emission intensity depends on the composition ofvehicles by fuel type, where LEV penetration can reduce
emission intensity. This model classifies passenger cars
as gasoline vehicles, HVs and EVs, differentiated bylevels of fuel economy and emission intensity. While theemission intensity of gasoline is fixed in the model, theintensity of electricity is estimated using the intensity ofelectric power generation, considering changes in thecomposition of power generation sources over time, suchas coal, petroleum, natural gas, nuclear, water and biomass. The level of total CO2 emissions from passenger
cars is calculated by multiplying the emission factor by
car travel distance.
The model ends up with estimation of changes in CO2emissions from passenger cars from changes in car travel
distance and emission factors by vehicle type.
3.3 Policy options and technology scenarios
The model is applied to the case study cities, with thestudy area of Bangkok covering the BMR region,
including the hinterland. Future scenarios of socioeconomic changes and technology advancement are set
as exogenous inputs to the model. First, a socioeconomic scenario for Asian developing cities is set
based on existing forecasts for GRP and population(Fig. 8). Population growth in Thailand is not significant,and is expected to decline by 2050. As no official data on
the floating population are available in Bangkok, thisstudy assumes that 5% of the population of Thai regions
outside the BMR would live in the BMA as a floating
population. As a result, the whole population of the BMR
is set at 14 million in 2005, to increase by 7% from 2005
to 2050.
This study compares two types of future scenarios, a
Low-Carbon Society (LCS) scenario, in which the targeted level of CO2 mitigation would be achieved throughimplementation of policies and technologies for lowcarbon transport strategies, and a BAU scenario, in which
no technology advancement, transit development or
land-use development control would take place from2010 (Do-Nothing). BAU is an extrapolative scenario
based on the current trend of Asian developing megacities, in which travel distance increases as built-up areas
expand and car use becomes more dominant. On theother hand, LCS assumes that transit development is

(5)
(6)

Fig. 8 Trends and forecasts of economic and population
growth.

Macroscopic Design of Measures to Realise Low-Carbon Land-Use Transport Systems

promoted over road development and transit use becomesincreasingly extensive, as was experienced in Tokyo.
Policy and technology options in each scenario are listed
in Table 2.
In LCS, land-use development control and urban
transit development would be implemented for avoid andshift. For avoid, land-use development control would be
introduced outside existing built-up areas to control therate of expansion of the built-up areas with greenbelts.
Many Asian cities are not familiar with strong land-use
development control and overwhelmed by the land market, therefore, this option might be less favourable forthem. For shift, future development would increase thenumber of stations at the same pace. As in the recent
extensive development of railways, this option might bemore acceptable, although there might be financial andorganisational issues for implementation.
To identify effective processes of policy implementation for avoid and shift, the impact of railway development timing on car ownership is analysed with the modelin the case the study cities. In the case that railways aredeveloped up to the level of the station density of thehabitable area of Tokyo, 1.13 (stations/km2), the result
Table 2 Policy and technology options.

shows that earlier development from 2010 would reduce
car ownership by nearly 10%, compared to later development from 2030, although the levels of development
are the same by 2050 (Fig. 9). This suggests that urban
transit development and a compact urban form should
start earlier before they become car-dependent cities.
Accordingly, this study assumes that land-use development control and urban transit development have started
from 2010.
In terms of improve, although technology advancement in Asian developing cities may be less than indeveloped countries, a leap-frog approach is required fordesigning low-carbon transport systems by actively
applying advanced technologies in developing countries.
Therefore, the future level of technology advancement,such as Tank to Wheel (TtW) and vehicle weight, andLEV penetration is set based on the forecast for Japan(Yamamoto et al., 2010). In Asian developing countries,
Japanese cars are popular, and this may contribute to the
spread of technology advancement from Japan to Asiandeveloping countries. This study assumes that the samelevel of technologies in Japan will be available in Asiandeveloping countries from 2020. The future compositionof power generation for EVs is also set based on theexisting forecast for each Asian country (Fujimori et al.,2011). In this forecast, the power source shifts frompetroleum and coal to nuclear and biomass, although
nuclear generation is no longer favourable due to theserious incident in Fukushima caused by the Great East
Japan Earthquake.
Figure 10 shows changes in the emission factors of
LEVs and their composition in LCS, in which the emission factors do not consider the impact of traffic congestion on speeds and fuel economy. BAU assumes nochanges in vehicle technologies and LEV composition
from 2005 to 2050, although the change in power generation is assumed to be the same as in LCS. Considering
the impact of traffic congestion on fuel economy, theaverage emission factor among LEVs in BAU would riseby 51% from 0.315 (kg-CO2/km) in 2005 to 0.476 in

Passenger
carsper
per 1000
inhavitants
Car ownership
(cars
1000
inhabitants)

450

Road development only

Early railway development（year 2010-2030）

2050

2005

Late railway development（year 2030-2050）

300

Beijing

Nagoya

400
350

2050

2050

Shanghai

Bangkok
2050
2005

250
200
150

Tokyo

Delhi

100

1999
1993

50
0
100

1965 1965
1993
1000

55

10000

1000001000000

GRP per
capitain 2003]
GRP(US$
in[US$
2003)

Fig. 9 The impacts of of urban railway development timing in Asian developing megacities.

56

K. NAKAMURA et al.

2050. On the other hand, in LCS, the average emission
factor would significantly improve to 0.085 in 2050.
3.4 Identifying necessary measures
The required contribution of each strategy to targeted
CO2 mitigation is identified as a backcasting approach.
The model estimates growth in CO2 emissions of 119%
in Bangkok, 524% in Beijing, 714% in Shanghai and776% in Delhi from 2005 to 2050. Bangkok’s emissions
growth is relatively lower than those of the other cities
because the prospective population growth is lower there.
This study sets a target of 70% reduction in CO2 emissions from passenger cars in 2050 from the level of theyear 2005.
While there are a number of ways to combine thesestrategies as a policy package, this study simply introduces each strategy in the order of social acceptance,
improve, shift and avoid. First, the scenario of technology
advancement for the improve strategy is applied. Then,transit development for shift is applied up to the level ofstation density in built-up areas of Tokyo in 2005, which
follows the application of land-use development control
for avoid up to no urban expansion. If the application of
all the strategies is insufficient, transit development isfurther increased to meet the target mitigation.
The contributions of the ASI low-carbon transport
strategies to the 70% mitigation of CO2 emissions are
identified for Bangkok, Beijing, Shanghai and Delhi(Fig. 11). Improve would significantly reduce CO2 emissions by around 75% from BAU in 2050. The details of
the technology advancement scenario include TtW efficiency to be improved by 284% and vehicle weight to belighter by 24% from 2005 to 2050. For LEV penetrationin 2050, the shares of HVs and EVs in passenger cars are
set to be 35% and 65%, respectively, while the current
share of EVs is quite small. A source shift of electric
power generation from coal to nuclear and biomass
would reduce the emissions factor of electric power

Fig. 10 Emission factor improvement and LEV spread in LCS.

Fig. 11 The necessary contribution of the ASI strategies to 70% CO2 mitigation.

Macroscopic Design of Measures to Realise Low-Carbon Land-Use Transport Systems

generation by 32% in Thailand, 51% in China and 47% inIndia from 2005 to 2050.
However, the application of improve by itself would
be insufficient to meet the mitigation target. Morecontribution is required from shift and avoid. Figure 12
shows how much car ownership growth needs to be
reduced with the avoid and shift strategies to achieve the
70% mitigation. Beijing, Shanghai and Delhi need toreduce car ownership growth by around 40% from BAU
in 2050. In Bangkok, the necessary reduction of car
ownership growth is smaller, around 20%, as their emissions growth is relatively lower than those of the other
cities.
According to the contribution of each strategy to the
70% mitigation, this analysis identifies the necessarylevels of transit development and land-use development
control as a policy package (Table 3). It reveals thatdrastic changes both in transit development and spatial
development are required to achieve the mitigation target.
Table 3 Necessary levels of policy implementation for LCS.

57

The results for all the cities suggest that railways need to
be developed at least up to the current level of Tokyo,
with new development hardly allowed to expand built-up
areas.
In particular, the largest changes will be required for
Beijing, where the necessary station density is three times
higher than that of Tokyo, and no expansion of built-up
areas should be allowed. This implies that Beijing isalready too sprawling to be made compact, and it will
require much more implementation of transit development for low carbonisation than the level of the current
extensive development.

4. Development of Comprehensive Designs of
Measures for Low-carbon Land-use
Transport Systems
While a macroscopic urban model is advantageous
for applicability to multiple cities in general, more consideration is needed for comprehensively designingmeasures to realise low-carbon land-use transport systems in Asian developing cities. This chapter summarises
what the limitations of a macroscopic urban model are
and how it can be developed further to a more comprehensive tool integrated with other analyses.
4.1 Scenarios of future behavioural changes inlocation and travel
One of the biggest difficulties in estimating transportdemand in the long-term future is how to take account of
behavioural changes in location and travel in an urban
model. While a macroscopic urban model can hardly
incorporate detailed behavioural models, it needs toFig. 12 The necessary contribution of the A-S strategies to reducing car ownership growth to achieve 70% CO2 mitigation.

58

K. NAKAMURA et al.

introduce simplified scenarios regarding behaviouralchanges. This study assumes that the future modal split in
Asian developing countries will depend on transport
infrastructure development in a simple way based on theexperience of Japan.
However, the local contexts of behaviours are notcaptured well in these scenarios. For instance, people inSoutheast Asia may prefer driving more to avoid hot
weather. People are also eager to own cars as a symbolof their status. These local contexts generate captive
demand for car use and make the model developed withdata on Japanese cites less applicable to representing
current trends in transport in Asian developing cities. On
the other hand, car use can be controlled by local policies.
Beijing and Shanghai have controlled car ownership bylimiting the number of car license plates allowed to be
used on the roads. It is not certain how future economic
growth will change the demand for car use attributable tothese local contexts, which cannot be captured from Japanese experience. Accordingly, such behavioural differences in location and travel need to be considered more in
the behavioural assumptions.
Moreover, Japanese experience represents only one
possible future scenario for Asian developing cities. As
the process of infrastructure development may generate
different types of land-use transport systems, long-term
behavioural changes in cities all over the world, such as
Europe and South America, need to be referred to forsetting various future scenarios. Also, future scenarios
need to be creative to cover what nobody has experienced
yet. Particularly, the future aged society may change
behaviours in location and travel even in Asian developing countries.
4.2 Nationwide analyses of urban transport
CO2 emissions from urban transport need to be analysed in different types of cities. Asian developing countries consist of a few megacities and many small towns
with completely different characteristics. It is difficult todefine the proper boundary of a megacity within whichmost trips are completed, as they often have large areas ofsurrounding hinterland areas in the suburbs. Analyses of
intra-city travel demand should include these hinterland
areas because urban sprawl brings more people there andgenerates longer trips to cities. Whether the travel demand from hinterland areas to city areas is made bypublic transport or by cars makes a large difference intraffic congestion and the resulting CO2 emissions. While
Tokyo has quite a large hinterland area outside the
23 inner-city wards area, 94% of commuting trips fromthe hinterland area to the inner city area use railways
thanks to the high level of suburban railway development.
Therefore, the boundaries need to be carefully set inanalyses.
On the other hand, a macroscopic urban model for
megacities is hardly applicable to small towns in Asiandeveloping countries. Railways may not be a desirable
low-carbon transport mode for all cities if they do notsecure sufficient levels of ridership. In small towns, thesize of transport vehicles needs to be appropriate for thedemand for ridership, where buses and paratransit vehicles can be low-carbon transport modes for trunk lines.
Accordingly, a more comprehensive macroscopic model
than the one for megacities needs to be developed withnationwide data on cities.
4.3 Design of urban forms and hierarchicaltransport networks
As a low-carbon land-use transport system cannot berealised only with railway development and land-use
development control, more details of the system need tobe considered. Due to the low level of railway development in Asian developing cities, their railway systems
require more complementary on-road public transportsystems to establish hierarchical transport networks
integrating trunk lines and feeder transport. The trunklines of railways can be complemented by bus andparatransit depending on the level of demand, where BRT
and paratransit are appropriate for the highest demand intrunk lines and lower demand in feeder systems, respectively.
However, such integration of public transport systems
is extremely poor in Asian developing cities, due to lackof coordination among transport agencies. Therefore,
there is a great opportunity for improvement by designing integrated networks of on-road public transport
linked to railway networks in a way that reduces obstacles to transfers and improves the levels of traffic congestion. In Seoul, where excessive provision of buses caused
serious traffic congestion in the city centre, the traffic
situation was significantly improved by separating bus
routes for the city centre and suburbs, and introducing asmart card for payment for both buses and railways alongwith a distance-based revised fare system.
Moreover, the considerable amount of prospective
development from economic growth makes it possible tochange land-use systems drastically in Asian developing
cities into the TOD forms, as in Curitiba. Accordingly, amacroscopic urban model needs to be integrated withcase-study analyses to take account of the impacts ofthese complementary measures, which may reduce thenecessary level of transit development for the low-carbon
system.
4.4 Urban growth scenarios from inter-regionaltransport analyses
As economic growth in Asia will result in development of not only urban transport systems but also inter-city transport systems, the impacts of national andinternational development on urban transport demandneed to be considered. Currently in Asian developing
countries, most economic activities are likely to beconcentrated in megacities. Whether future growth will
be concentrated in existing megacities or dispersed into
other small cities will depend on the pattern of international and national levels of transport network development. In China, coastal cities have grown more thanks tothe advantages of shipping transport, and the develop-

Macroscopic Design of Measures to Realise Low-Carbon Land-Use Transport Systems

ment of high-speed railways and airlines is expected toshift further growth into inland cities. It is worthwhile toanalyse which types of national and international development would reduce CO2 emissions, with mono-centric
growth to develop existing megacities further or polycentric growth to develop more middle-sized cities.
Accordingly, a macroscopic urban model needs to be
integrated with an inter-regional transport analysis totake account of patterns of future growth in cities.
4.5 Assessing feasibility of policy implementation
While the primary aim of a backcasting approach is to
identify the necessary levels of policy implementation,
how feasible their implementation will be needs to beassessed to some extent. Key elements of the feasibilityof low-carbon transport systems for Asian developing
cities are institutional capacity, financial feasibility andsocial acceptance. The institutional capacity to manage
advanced integrated land-use transport systems is qualitatively assessed, particularly for lack of coordination
among transport operators, transport planners and landuse planners.
On the other hand, financial feasibility and social acceptance are assessed more quantitatively in terms ofinternational financial schemes for development of lowcarbon systems and distribution patterns of accessibility
improvement benefits among different income groups.
Such extensive development of railways, as identified inthis paper, may not be self-financed by the governmentsof Asian developing countries. Cost-effective BRT development may be a more favoured option for themunless the development makes traffic congestion worse
by reducing road capacities for private traffic. This isoften the case in Asian developing cities, as BRT
development has become popular in Asian developing
cities. Moreover, financial schemes play an importantrole in their development. While the international schemeof carbon trading introduces an additional carbon priceinto transport fuel consumption, the marginal cost of CO2
mitigation from railway development could be lower
than the carbon price. This suggests that railway development is more effective for investments. It is also
necessary to compare the mitigation costs in developed
countries and developing countries in order to promote
the application of a CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) to long-term transport projects.
Furthermore, social acceptance needs to be assessedby ascertaining whether the development of low-carbon
transport systems would improve liveability, including
accessibility, as a co-benefit. Attention should be paid toany gaps in accessibility levels between rich and poor
people in Asian developing countries due to economic
disparities. High-income people are likely to live in city
centres, which exclude lower-income people, who moveinto suburbs with lower access to public transport,
although they may need it more. They need to be taken
into account when assessing levels of policy implementation, with further analysis of financial feasibility andaccessibility.

59

5. Conclusions
This study proposes a method of designing measures
to realise a low-carbon transport system for Asiandeveloping cities. The method is designed to analyse theimpacts of economic growth on motorisation and urban
sprawl on CO2 emissions and the policy package ofmeasures on mitigation in Asian developing countries.
Their characteristics are summarised as the identificationof suitable instruments, the application of a simplified
macroscopic model and consideration of dynamic pathsof policy implementation.
Development of a low-carbon land-use transport system for Asian developing cities requires not only setting afuture vision but also identifying the measures necessary
for its realisation. In research on transport and climatechange, future scenarios often include both a future
vision of a transport system and a roadmap of measures.
Transport demand, such as travel distance and modal
split, however, is more likely to be set in the roadmap
scenario without considering the level of policy implementation. In designing measures for a low-carbon transport system, consideration of what measures are needed
is more useful for policy makers. The ASI framework has
become popular even in Asian developing countries(UNCRD, 2010). Further classification by instrument, asin the CUTE matrix, can help identify suitable measures
for Asian developing cities in a more systematic way.
To identify the necessary level of policy implementation, transport demand in the long-term future needs to be
estimated using an urban model. Although data for urban
modelling are not sufficiently available yet in Asiandeveloping cities, an increasing number of studies havedeveloped urban models there. As data become moreavailable, it may be easier to develop more detailed
models. Urban modelling, however, is often timeconsuming when details are modelled. The issues ofclimate change require urgent actions, which cannot wait
for such detailed models to be developed. Particularly in
Asian developing countries, considerably more actions
are needed in a leap-frog way than in developed countries,
as this study shows. More simplified macroscopic models may be useful to Asian developing countries forroughly identifying the necessary level of measures asevidence for the initial stage of policy making.
The design of measures also needs to identify
quantitatively the timing of policy implementation as
well as the level of implementation. As changes in a landuse transport system, including technology advancement,take a long time, later implementation of measures would
make it more difficult to achieve the targeted mitigationof CO2 emissions from transport. This is not only the casefor the benefit of CO2 mitigation. When it comes to thebenefit of mobility, future aged societies would significantly change mobility demand. To meet changes inmobility demand, more precautionary planning of landuse transport systems is needed. Accordingly, the method
this study proposes is expected to contribute to suchplanning for Asian developing cities.

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K. NAKAMURA et al.

Acknowledgements
This research was supported by the Environment
Research and Technology Development Fund (S6-5) of
the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
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Kazuki NAKAMURA
Kazuki NAKAMURA is a Research Associate at theGraduate School of Environmental Studies,
Nagoya University, Japan. He has an M.Eng. in
Civil Engineering from Kyoto University, Japan,
and a Ph.D. in Town Planning from University
College London, UK. He worked formerly as a
Research Associate at the Department of Architecture, University of Cambridge, UK. He is interested in multi-scale urban
modeling of location and travel demand and its application to long-term
assessment for land-use, transport and environmental planning. He has
been involved in international academic projects on designing sustainableurban land-use transport systems in European and Asian cities.

Yoshitsugu HAYASHI
Yoshitsugu HAYASHI is a Professor at the Graduate
School of Environmental Studies and Director of
the International Research Centre for Sustainable
Transport and Cities (SUSTRAC), both at Nagoya
University, Japan. He has a D.Eng. from the
University of Tokyo, Japan. His research interests
cover a wide range of aspects of land-use, transport and environment planning. He has played leading roles in these fields
domestically as a Vice President of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers
and a member of governmental planning councils, and internationally as
Chair of the Science Committee, World Conference on Transport ResearchSociety.

Hirokazu KATO
Hirokazu KATO is an Associate Professor at theGraduate School of Environmental Studies,
Nagoya University, Japan. He has a D.Eng. from
Nagoya University, Japan. His primary researchinterests are in methodologies to assess effective
transport policies for the environment and toregenerate local public transport systems. He has
been honored with the Best Paper Award from the Journal of Global
Environment Engineering and an Incentive Award from the Society ofEnvironmental Science in Japan. He has served as a consultant and lecturer
for governmental bodies, transport operators and local communities withregard to the global environment and public transportation, particularly bus
systems.

(Received 20 July 2012, Accepted 5 October 2012)