23

Modeling for Energy and Economy Transition Using
Multiple Objectives for China: The IPAC Analysis
Kejun JIANG1*, Chenmin HE2, Pianpian XIANG3 and Xiulian HU1
1

Energy Research Institute
Jia.No.11, Muxidibeili, Xicheng District, Beijing 100038, China
2
Zhejiang Carbon Neutral Innovation Institute, Zhejiang University of Technology
No.18, Chaowang Road, Gongshu District, Hangzhou 310014, Zhejiang
3
Beijing University of Technology
100 Pingleyun, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100124, China*E-mail: kjiang@eri.org.cn

Abstract
Much research suggests that energy transitions have been driven mainly by CO2 emission reduction targets.
There are, however, other issues that could be included in assessing an energy transition in China. It would bepossible to apply multiple objectives in assessing a transition. This paper presents ways to analyze energy
transitions using multiple objectives with the Integrated Policy Assessment model for China (IPAC model). The
use of multiple objectives of energy transition may be better for exploring factors influencing a transition, andprovide a wider understanding of the energy transition by involving more stakeholders in the transition
pathways. An energy transition towards a carbon-neutrality target would have the characteristics of clean
energy, such as renewable and nuclear energy, dominating the energy mix, resulting in improved air quality andwater demand control. Even though the use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) for fossil fuels may negatively
impact energy for air pollutant control due to increased fossil fuel energy use, the amount of fossil fuel that canbe used with CCS in energy transition pathways is also limited. Moreover, proper investments in energy
transition could also benefit China’s economic development. On the whole, adopting an energy transition
pathway with a carbon-neutrality target in China could also support the realization of China’s Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.
Key words: emission, energy transition, modeling, multiple objectives, scenario

1. Introduction
As of the beginning of 2022, more than 130 countries
have announced a long-term target to be carbon neutral, or
greenhouse gas (GHG) neutral by 2050, or before 2060.
Energy transition plays a key role in the pathways towardachieving these carbon-neutrality targets (IPCC, 2022).
As a low-carbon or zero-carbon energy transition isapproached, renewable energy, especially solar PV andwind power, together with nuclear power are being
developed rapidly now, and many countries have madetheir own plans and policies to enable an energy transition.
The world is making moves to achieve the Paris
Agreement targets (IEA, 2022).
Energy transitions, however, are linked not only with
CO2 emission reduction, though this may be the mostimportant factor. Development of an energy system is amulti-dimensional decision-making process. The energy
Global Environmental Research
26/2022 023−030
printed in Japan

sector is one of the major industries in a country’s
economic system, and it is also the largest source of air
pollutants in many developing countries. Among China’s
industrial sectors, the energy sector uses more water thanany other. Energy suppliers are also the largest entity
involved in mining, leading to issues such as land collapse,
underground water disruption and water pollution (Bianet al., 2010).
Many studies have analyzed co-benefits between
GHG mitigation and other environmental gains, such as
air pollution reduction (IPCC, 2022; Qin et al., 2021).
These studies normally analyze two environmental factors
together without multiple objectives, and so far none haveexamined China’s energy transition towards carbon
neutrality targets closely.
The Integrated Policy Assessment for China (IPAC)
modeling team started analyzing China’s energy transitionin the early 1990s, and was involved in both global©2022 AIRIES24

K. JIANG et al.

studies and national studies. From 2016, their modeling
analysis of an energy transition in China using IPAC
started including several other objectives such as
CO2/GHGs mitigation, increasing the GDP, air pollutant
reduction, decreasing water use, promoting a recycling
economy and clean production (Jiang et al., 1998; Jiang
et al., 2013; Jiang et al., 2018; Jiang et al., 2022; He et al.,2023a, b). This paper presents an analysis of an energy
transition with these multiple objectives.

2. Methodology Framework
Energy transition pathways for China were analyzed
using IPAC. The IPAC model was developed incollaboration with several leading modeling research
institutes, including the National Institute forEnvironment Studies (NIES), Pacific Northwest National
Laboratory (PNNL), International Institute of Applied
System Analysis (IIASA), Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency (PBL) and others. The IPAC model
now includes several models with different modelingmethodologies such as the IPAC-AIM/technology model,
which is a bottom-up-type linear-programming costoptimization model developed based on the AIM/end use
model (Matsuoka et al, 1995); the IPAC-SGM model,
which is a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
based on the Second Generation Model (SGM) model
developed by PNNL (Hugh et al., 2005); and the
IPAC-Global model, which is a partial equilibrium modelof energy systems. To be an integrated assessment model,
the IPAC model also includes a simplified climate model(MAGICC), and an air quality model based on AIM-Air.
The IPAC Global model covers 11 regions, and has beenused in several global wide studies (Jiang et al., 2006).
The IPAC-SGM model has mainly been used for national
studies, while the IPAC-AIM/technology model has beenused for national and provincial studies in China.
A soft link was established among these models. The
IPAC-Global model could provide parameters on global
energy prices and energy imports and exports among
regions, which could be used in other IPAC models; theIPAC-AIM/technology model could provide data on
technologicalprogress
andenergyefficiency
improvements by sector; and the IPAC-SGM model could
give parameters on energy prices, sector development andother conditions. The IPAC model uses scenario settings
that are common among different models, so theparameters can be transferred among models, to maintaintheir consistency. By using the different characteristics ofmodels in the IPAC model family, the output from IPAC
could be interpreted with wider meaning. The IPAC-SGM
model was used mainly to simulate the impact of
mitigation on economic development and effects on fiscal
policies such as carbon tax, subsidies. The IPAC-Global
model was mainly used in the global analysis, with moreof a focus on China (China by itself is one of the regions

IPAC-Global model
Global energy demand and supply
Global GHG emission
Global reduction targets
Burden sharing
Energy import/export
Energy price
Reduction cost

Energy import/export
Global energy price
Sector Energy
CO2 emission cap
efficiency
Energy demand
Energy Supply IPAC-AIM/technology model

Energy import/export
Global energy priceCO2 emission cap

China’s GDP
China’s energy price
Sector output

IPAC-SGM model
GDP development/mix
Sector development
Reduction cost

Fig. 1China’s energy demand and supply
Energy demand by sector
Energy supply
Reduction cost
Sector Energy
efficiency
Energy demand
Energy Supply

Energy price
Energy import/export
Sector Output
GDP future

Model flow chart.

in the IPAC-Global model), and the IPAC-AIM/
technology model was used mainly for energy transition
pathways and the emission scenario analysis for China
and selected provinces in China The model linkage is
given in Fig. 1.
An energy transition with multiple objectives wasanalyzed by using the model family to present different
angles of these objectives.
To simulate air pollutant reduction, the IPAC-AIM/
technology model was extended to cover some
non-energy activities, such as air pollutant emissions fromconstruction sites, agriculture activities and chemicalindustry activities. The sectors in the IPAC-AIM/
technology model were extended from 55 to 61 to coverthese non-energy activities, and more than 50
technologies were added in these non-energy sectors toreflect different technologies for air pollutant reduction.

3. Multiple Objectives and Scenario Design
The multiple objectives of the energy transition in
China include carbon neutrality before 2060; air pollutant
reduction to reach the World Health Organization (WHO)air quality standards by 2050; water demand reduction tosecure water security issues in China, especially innorthwestern China; and reduction of mining from theearth so as to protect the environment.
As for scenarios, one main scenario was used, withan energy transition in China driven by these multiple
objectives. After China announced its target of carbon
neutrality before 2060 in September 2020, to support thepolicy making process and related academic research, theresearch focus was shifted from a CO2-mitigation scenario
analysis to a wider analysis of the impact on energy
transition pathways.
From 2000, IPAC modeling studies started working
on air pollutant control based on energy activities. In
China, energy sources account for around 65% of air
pollutant emissions. From 2012, after the State Council
released its clean air action plan, there has been much
more research by the IPAC modeling team for analysis of
air pollution control. The IPAC modeling team’s main
research topic now regarding air pollution control is anModeling for Energy and Economy Transition Using Multiple Objectives for China

Primary Energy Demand
3500.0

BioLiquid

Mtoe

3000.0

Biomass Power

2500.0Solar

2000.0Wind

1500.0

Nuclear

1000.0

Hydro

500.0

N.Gas
Oil

0.0
2015

Fig. 2

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Coal

2050

Primary energy demand in the energy transition scenario.

Final energy demand
2500

BiofuelHydrogen

2000

Mtoe

Electricity
1500

Heat
N.Gas

1000

Petroleum500

Town Gas
Coke

0
2015

Fig. 3

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2050

Coal

Final energy demand in the energy transition scenario.

Power Generation
18000
16000

Bio

14000

Solar

12000
TWh

analysis of air quality improvement resulting from energy
transition pathways toward the carbon-neutrality target. A
zero-carbon energy transition could contribute welltoward reaching air pollution control targets. One topic
being discussed in China regarding air quality
improvement is how to reach WHO standards by 2050.
Another key topic is water use reduction. In China,
water scarcity is one of the key concerns in social
economic development. With economic activities andhousehold income increasing, water demand is also
continuing to increase rapidly, and water pressure isbecoming a serious problem in China (Xian et al., 2019).
Several large construction projects have been carried out
to transfer water from southern China to northern China.
Water scarcity, however, continues to increase in China,
especially in northwestern China. The energy sector is thelargest water user among China’s industrial sectors. In
2020, the energy sector consumed 34 billion tons of waterin China, second only to the largest user, the agriculture
sector. Therefore, how to reduce water use in the energy
sector is becoming one of the key issues toward an energy
transition.
Another objective is to support economic
development through the energy transition. A
well-designed energy transition can be positive for
economic development, even though most modeling
analyses conclude that an energy transition with deep cutsin GHG pathways would have a negative impact on
economic development (IPCC, 2022). It is important tofigure out how to achieve positive support for economic
development.
The next topic in our analysis of energy transition in
China is how to support achievement of the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs) in China by 2030. Many
countries adopted the SDGs in 2015, and policy-making
processes to support the effort to realize the SDGs areunderway in those countries. In China, the government
committed to achieving the SDGs by 2030, but it will face
many challenges (Xue & Wong, 2019).

25

Wind

10000

Nulcear

8000

Hydro

6000

N.Gas

4000

Oil fired

2000

Coal fired

0
2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2050

Fig. 4 Electric power generation in the energy transition scenario.

4. Modeling Output

nuclear energy will account for more than 65% of primaryenergy. To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, fossil fueluse will need to include use of carbon capture, utilizationand storage (CCU&S).

4.1 Energy Transition
Figures 2 to 4 illustrate aspects of the energy
transition scenario in which carbon neutrality is reachedby the 2050 target, with hydrogen processes included in
the model. Renewable energy power generation isestimated to reach 860 kcal/kWh, becoming the primaryenergy source, as in the International Energy Agency’s(IEA’s) model, which differs from that used in China,
where a coal-fired power generation equivalent method isused.
The energy system will undergo a significant
transition by 2050. By 2050, primary energy demand will
decrease due to much more power generation and power
available from renewable energy. Renewable energy and

4.2 Air Pollutant Reduction and Air Quality
Because air quality is not a nationwide issue in China,
the analysis of air pollution here is given by province. In
2013, the Action Plan on Air Quality Control (StateCouncil, 2013) was announced, including a policy
package, a major part of which focused on CO2 emission
reduction together with energy-related measures, such as
controlling coal use and reducing the use of scattered coal,
which have significant effects on air pollution.
Based on related studies, around 65% of air
pollutants arise from energy activities. Therefore, anenergy transition could result in significant air pollutant
reduction. Shifting to a clean energy future will also resultin lower air pollutant emissions. The objective of air

26

K. JIANG et al.

quality analysis is to obtain the air quality standard
recommended by the WHO, which was 10ƞg/m3 before
being revised to 5ƞg/m3 in 2022).
Our air quality analysis using the IPAC model was
performed by looking at 31 provinces rather than thenation overall, because air quality differed regionally. The
socioeconomic scenarios of the 31 provinces were set up
to include GDP, GDP by sector, population, number ofhouseholds, output from sectors and other factors up to
2050 as driving forces for energy demand by province.
Energy demand and supply were found by model
simulation, and SO2, NOx, PM2.5, VOC, black carbon
and CH4 emission estimates by province were obtained for
up to 2050. An air quality model was used to calculate air
quality by province. Table 1 presents the results for air
quality by province.
It can be seen in Table 1 that it will still be difficult toreach the WHO air quality standard by 2050.
The background air pollutant concentration is around7−8 ƞg/m3, and the emissions from the agriculture sector,
where it is difficult to make deep reductions, could
contribute another 3 to 4 ƞg/m3. Therefore there is very
big demand for air pollutant emission reduction fromenergy activities. To be able to reach the WHO air quality
standard, air pollutant emissions from energy activities
Table 1

Air quality, by province, ƞg/m3.

Beijing
Tianjin
Hebei
Shanxi
Inner Mongolia
Liaoning
Jilin
Heilongjiang
Shanghai
Jiangsu
Zhejiang
Anhui
FujianJiangxi
Shandong
Henan
Hubei
Hunan
Guangdong
Guangxi
HainanChongqing
Sichuan
Guizhou
YunnanTibet
Shannxi
Gansu
Qinghai
Ningxia
Xinjiang

2015
79.91
71.55
76.74
55.80
40.97
56.09
56.26
44.70
54.03
57.46
47.93
56.59
28.92
42.91
68.13
80.96
66.28
53.46
33.81
40.55
20.13
54.54
48.59
35.45
27.74
26.43
54.02
41.71
44.45
46.93
55.56

2017
71.15
66.97
68.57
49.59
36.00
49.46
46.41
35.78
48.58
51.45
42.87
49.01
25.75
36.94
60.72
71.01
57.05
45.10
30.21
34.84
17.94
46.25
41.79
30.38
23.12
26.30
47.32
37.24
41.03
42.64
53.34

2020
58.54
58.68
57.18
37.74
27.60
40.16
36.07
28.47
40.19
43.37
34.80
39.49
19.89
27.46
48.38
55.59
45.62
33.98
23.61
26.73
14.27
34.63
31.75
22.43
17.12
26.00
38.94
28.11
30.29
32.37
43.84

2025
44.56
46.77
44.50
29.68
22.48
32.62
28.32
22.74
32.52
35.76
26.95
30.67
15.34
20.60
37.67
42.88
36.63
26.33
18.06
19.45
11.48
27.70
26.38
17.02
13.82
25.82
32.55
21.52
23.20
25.89
36.49

2030
33.17
34.53
34.59
22.98
18.39
26.55
23.18
19.47
26.47
30.16
20.83
24.15
11.91
15.28
28.92
33.25
30.97
20.42
13.79
13.90
8.83
21.84
21.84
12.39
11.75
25.82
27.88
16.34
17.31
20.48
28.44

2040
23.72
24.72
22.01
18.24
15.33
22.99
19.84
17.12
22.32
26.25
16.82
19.93
10.04
11.91
23.50
26.12
26.62
16.70
11.31
10.54
7.61
17.79
18.25
9.75
10.48
25.87
23.50
12.77
14.02
16.52
22.37

2050
15.06
16.40
15.91
14.36
12.45
19.76
16.55
14.77
18.19
20.53
12.78
15.21
8.56
9.04
18.76
20.31
22.16
13.40
9.47
8.13
6.93
14.14
15.07
7.44
9.62
25.95
18.85
10.00
11.14
12.77
15.87

will have to be reduced nearly to zero. This may bringstronger demand for a clean energy transition than the
carbon neutrality target by itself requires.
4.3 Water Demand
Since the energy transition will have obvious impacts
on water demand, understanding how water demand will
be affected under specific climate change targets could
improve support for energy transition policies in China.
An energy-water integrated assessment model for China
was constructed, based on an IPAC model framework.
Water demand from the energy system was calculated
based on China’s energy transition pathways. The key
influencing factors in water demand were analyzed for theenergy transition scenarios. In the coming decades, theenergy sector’s water consumption will continue toincrease, putting continuous pressure on water resources.
Under energy transition scenarios, low-carbon energy
technologies have different patterns of water use. Somemitigation measures increase water use in the energy
sector, such as use of CCS and nuclear power generation.
The key influencing factors, including inland nuclear
power, biomass energy, CCS and other water-intensive
technologies, were identified. The results showed thatwater-saving measures could significantly reduce
long-term water demand in the energy system, while
short-term water stress in the energy sector is still
inevitable. Meanwhile, as such water-saving measuresdecrease energy efficiency, it would be desirable toconsider trade-offs between energy and water while
making relevant energy policies and plans (He et al.,2023a).
Adjustment of the energy mix and the application of
CCS technology result in differences in the amount andstructure of water use in the energy system, as shown in
Fig. 5. In the energy transition scenario, there is a very
high demand for nuclear and biomass power generation.
The rising water demand of these two technologies willlead to rapid growth of total water consumption, which
will reach about 21.8 billion tons in 2030. That is anincrease of about 7.4 billion tons, or 50.7%, from 2015. In
addition, an energy transition will require rapid
development and application of CCS technology, which
will also lead to lower energy efficiency of power
generation because around 30% of the energy is used tooperate the CCS system, and greater water use is requiredby the technology itself. Therefore, under this scenario,
water consumption in the energy sector will decrease
briefly after 2030 to 20.3 billion tons in 2040, but riseagain after 2040 to about 22.4 billion tons in 2050.
This means that transforming the power system may
increase the pressure on regional water resources. In
China, water resources are under great pressure,especially in inland regions, and power plants are alreadyfacing severe water shortages (Rosa et al., 2020).
Therefore, for developing and siting new and planned

Modeling for Energy and Economy Transition Using Multiple Objectives for China(a)Coal to oil
Coal to gas
Hydro
Gas power with CCS
Goal power with CCS
Biomass power
Wind
Solar
Nuclear power with air cooling
Inland nuclear power
Nuclear powerGas power with air cooling

(b)
25

20

10

Fig. 5

2050

2040

2035

2030

2025

0

2020

5

2015

billion ton

15

Coal to oil
Coal to gas
Hydro
Biomass power
Wind
Solar
NuclearGas power
Coal power
Shale gas extraction
Natural gas extraction
Oil extraction
Heating20

b illio n t o n

25

27

15

Gas power
Coal power with air cooling
Coal power
Shale gas extraction

10

Natural gas extraction
Oil extraction
Water-electrolytic hydrogen making

5

Heating
Oil refining
Coking

0
2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2050

Coal washing
Coal mining

Water consumption in energy transition scenarios in China. (a) Water demand in energy sectors without water saving
technologies; (b) Water demand in energy sectors with water saving technologies.

power plants, especially inland nuclear, biomass andthermal power stations, it will be necessary to consider
whether the regional water supply can meet the demand.
In western and northern China, there are already serious
water supply problems. Water scarcity needs to be taken
into account in designing for different energy resource
regions and consideration of power plant development
planning and site selection. One advantage these westernand northern regions have, though, is that they havetremendous solar and wind power resources, anddeveloping solar and wind power uses much less water.
There are technological options for water
conservation. The most prolific water user is nuclear
power (Fig. 5a). If air-cooling technology could beapplied, the water use in nuclear power plants could be
reduced by 2/3. This technology is commonly used in
China for coal fired power plants in regions with watersupply pressure. Meanwhile, fourth generation nuclear
power plants normally do not use water for cooling. In the
IPAC energy transition scenarios, there will be around 560
GW of nuclear power by 2050, of which around 160GW
will be fourth generation nuclear power. In the regions ofChina with water shortages, fourth generation plants or
third generation plants with air cooling technology could
be utilized. With water saving technology, water demand
could be significantly reduced (Fig. 5b).
4.4 Impact on Economic Development
Based on our scenario analysis using the IPAC model,
deep cuts to GHGs by 2050 in China, will influence
economic development in the following ways:- An energy transition will have an overall impact on
economic development patterns. Clear reduction
targets will require industries and consumers to
respond. Policies aiming for reduction could impact the
production system. There will be new industrial
processes, including the use of hydrogen as feedstockand reduction materials for manufacturing industrial
products, such as steel and chemical products; newtechnologies including advanced batteries for vehicles

and power storage, advanced nuclear power generationand others; new materials which could replace highemission products, such as plastic made fromrenewable materials; new consumption behaviors
including carbon labeling and carbon footprint
lifecycle analysis, which would influence the
manufacturing industry significantly; and new energy
use patterns for achieving zero emissions, or evennegative emissions from the energy supply. Due to
GHG emission reduction, the whole economic system
will have to undergo a transition to meet therequirements for deep cuts in GHGs.
- The energy supply industry will have to undergo asevere transition to a zero carbon energy system by
2050, and they will have to be highly secure with a
totally new supply system. Together with the economictransition, there is a big potential for energy demand toincrease with the zero-carbon energy supply. Moreover,many technologies will be needed for the energy
supply transition.
- The end-use sector will also be impacted by thetransition. Full electrification in the end-use sector, and
new industrial processes with sharply reduced GHG
emissions are key options for deep cuts in GHGs in
China. Most transport, including airplanes, will use
electricity or hydrogen from electrolytic processes. In
industry, fossil fuels will be replaced by electricity,with 100% electricity use in buildings.
- New manufacturing processes will be developed insome sectors to make deep cuts in CO2. This will bevery important in the industrial sector where it isdifficult to reduce CO2 emissions in some processes,
where we have to use fossil fuels as process inputs,
such as in steel, cement clinker and chemical productmanufacturing. Hydrogen could be an option for a
reducing material, but there is a need for innovation of
new processes. The good news is that hydrogen-basedindustrial processes are at a beginning stage, and there
are several pilot projects underway.
Most studies find that mitigation of GHGs has a

K. JIANG et al.

4.5 The SDGs
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) werealso launched in 2015 during the Global Environment
Summit. Agendas for reaching the SDGs were establishedby United Nations member countries. China similarlyGDP
2500000
10^8Yuan, 2010 Pricenegative impact on economic development (IPCC, 2014;
IPCC, 2018). Most point to big cost burdens imposed for
mitigation to improve the environment, even though suchcost benefit analyses of climate change abatement could
include much larger benefits by examining the gains fromthe climate damage avoided. The negative impact on
economies from GHG mitigation, however, has alreadyattracted strident arguments from countries against
moving further on mitigation, especially in theinternational collaboration process.
In traditional economies, prevention of air pollution
and other environmental emissions could have negative
impacts on economic activities (Jaffe et al., 1995). Morerecently, however, some studies have concluded thatcompatibility is possible between environmental
improvement and economic development. Well-designed
environment regulations could spark innovation fromenterprises and subsequently improve their economic
competitiveness. This is called the “Porter Hypothesis.”
This has not been fully supported by other studies,
however.
China could make good policy choices for a positive
impact on economic development through deep cuts in
GHGs. Fig. 6 and Fig. 7 present our results from the
IPAC-SGM model, which show that in energy transition
scenarios, the GDP could be increased by 1.7% in 2050.
Including linkage with the IPAC-AIM/technology model,
the factors for an increased GDP include: 1) power
generation costs being much lower with solar power andnuclear power generation, compared with baseline
scenarios, due to more extensive development of solar PV
and wind power, and the cost following the learning curve
effects; 2) China’s exports to other countries growing due
to its gaining a lead in low-carbon technologies, withlower costs compared to elsewhere; 3) productivity also
increasing due to technological innovation, and much
lower costs for zero emission technologies, which could
significantly reduce investment needs, and high efficiency
in material use; 4) in the meantime, energy import
expenditures being reduced through 100% locallysupplied energy; and 5) greater energy conservation in theenergy transition also lower energy expenditures by the
public, resulting in higher consumption in other economic
activities.
Recent studies focusing on economic impacts of air
pollution control in China show there may be positiveeffects on economic development (Jiang et al., 2020).
Such findings could encourage policy makers to consider
their environmental improvement policies, and combine
them well with economic development policies.

1.7% higher for 1.5℃ scenario in 2050

2000000
Baseline
1500000

1.5C

1000000
50000002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Fig. 6GDP in the baseline scenario and energy transition
scenario, IPAC results.

Consumption
1400000
10^8Yuan, 2010 Price28

1.8% higher for 1.5℃ scenario in 2050

1200000
1000000

Baseline

8000001.5℃

60000040000020000002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Fig. 7

Consumption in the baseline scenario and energy
transition scenario, IPAC results.

defined its national strategy for achieving the SDGs. Theenergy transition pathways towards the carbon neutrality
target for China could have a close relationship with theSDGs, if ways the national strategy could contribute andoverlap with achievement of the selected SGDs are
explored. According to the results of studies on some of
the SDGs, in conjunction with China’s energy transition,
pursuit of the SDGs may simultaneously lead tosustainable development in the energy, industry,transportation and building sectors, and thus improve
environmental quality and human health. In addition toaddressing climate change (SDG 13: take urgent action tocombat climate change and its impacts), efforts to achieve
the climate mitigation target will also produce co-benefits
and facilitate the achievement of SDG3 (ensure healthy
lives and promote well-being for all at all ages), SDG7
(ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable andmodern energy for all), SDG8 (promote sustained,
inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full andproductive employment and decent work for all), SDG9(build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive andsustainable industrialization and foster innovation),
SDG11 (make cities and human settlements inclusive,
safe, resilient and sustainable), and SDG12 (ensuresustainable consumption and production patterns). The
strong linkages between China’s mitigation target strategy
and the selected SDGs have implications for the necessityof merging the policies and actions relevant to climate
mitigation and those relevant to SDG attainment, which
could produce co-benefits and reduce policy costs.
The 17 SDG goals are further elaborated by 169

Modeling for Energy and Economy Transition Using Multiple Objectives for China

sub-targets, and can be quantified by the 241 indicatorsdeveloped by the UN Inter-Agency and Expert Group on
SDG Indicators (IAEG-SDGs) (UN, 2016). Therefore,
this research will link the energy transition scenarios withthese SDG indicators to carry out a quantification
analysis.
Since the framework of the IPAC-AIM/technology
model uses a “resource-technology-service” flow, ourstudy links the SDG indicators with the model following
this flow: the clean and efficient use of energy andresources (linked with SDG7, SDG12) to generateenvironmentally-friendly growth and output (linked with
SDG8, SDG9), resulting in sustainable cities (“green”
lifestyles) (linked with SDG11). Within this system, otherindirect indicators are also discussed, including
environmental pollution (linked with SDG6) and healthimprovement (linked with SDG3) from using clean
energy.
Quantified results for the 10 direct SDG indicators
are given in this study, including SDG7: “ensure access toaffordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all,”
SDG8: “promote sustained, inclusive and sustainableeconomic growth, full and productive employment anddecent work for all,” SDG9: “build resilient infrastructure,promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization andfoster innovation,” and SDG12: “ensure sustainableconsumption and production patterns.” The quantified
indicators under the energy transition scenario are shownin Table 2 below (He et al., 2023b).

5. Findings and Discussion
Even though our energy transition analysis was
mainly based on CO2 emission reduction targets, there aremany other issues that could be included in an energy
Table 2transition assessment for China. This paper has presented
ways to analyze an energy transition by using multiple
objectives with the IPAC model. Having multiple
objectives of energy transition could facilitate explorationof factors influencing the transition, and provide a broader
understanding of the energy transition by involving more
stakeholders in the transition pathways.
Based on this analysis, an energy transition towards acarbon neutrality target would be characterized by clean
energy, such as renewable and nuclear energy, dominating
the energy mix. The development of clean energy inChina could also have a strong effect of reducing air
pollution, possibly to nearly the air quality standard
recommended by the WHO by 2050. Also, in general, anenergy transition would also have positive effects oncontrol of water demand. Even though there are somechallenges regarding water demand for nuclear power,
biomass power generation and CCS, which arewater-consuming technologies, water-saving technologies
exist for nuclear power generation. These technologies
should be made available in regions with serious watersupply constraints. Moreover, fourth generation nuclear
technologies will not use water. By using thesewater-saving technologies, water demand could be
reduced by 2050.
An energy transition would also impact future
economic development. Many industries will undergo asignificant transition by shifting to zero-carbon-emission
manufacturing and new technologies; industrial processes
will also undergo big changes; lower costs of clean energy
will lead to less costly industrial manufacturing processes;
and this then could result in changes in the allocation ofindustrial manufacturing in China by relocating industry
from where it is currently concentrated in eastern China towestern and northern China. Also, with lower energy

Quantification of selected SDG indicators in the energy transition scenarios.

IAEG-SDG Indicators
7.1.1 Proportion of population with access to electricity
7.1.2 Proportion of population with primary reliance on clean fuels andtechnology1
7.2.1 Renewable energy share in the total final energy consumption 2
7.3.1 Energy intensity measured in terms of primary energy and GDP
8.1.1 Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita
8.4.2 Domestic material consumption, domestic material consumption percapita, and domestic material consumption per GDP3
passenger-road
passenger-railway
passenger-aviation
passenger-ship
9.1.2 Passenger and freight volumes, by mode of
freight-roadtransport
freight-railway
freight-aviation
freight-ship
freight-pipeline
9.4.1 CO2 emission per unit of value added
12.2.2 Domestic material consumption, domestic material consumption percapita, and domestic material consumption per GDP4
12.5.1 National recycling rate, tons of material recycled5
1

29

Unit

toe/million US$ (2005)
ton/million US$ (2005)
ton per capita
billion personkmbillion ton km
kgCO2/US$ (2005)
toe/million US$ (2005)
toe per capita
million ton

2010
-

2015
100%

2030
100%

46.1%

52.7%

65.9%

6.9%
501
17.7%
638
2.08
3980
752
360.4
7
3565
2692
12
7949
209
1.92
457
1.49
-

9.8%
387
11.1%
523
2.65
5339.5
912
606.8
7
5209
3347.520.510122.5
430
1.23
335
1.69
1142.9

21.9%
185
6.2%
135
1.74
10634
1385
1841.9
7
10713
5576
70
18136
1540
0.44
135
1.74
1314.4Natural gas penetration rate in households; 2 Including hydro, solar, wind and biomass; 3 Industrial material consumption, including iron andsteel, cement, glass, copper, aluminum, lead and zinc, sodium, carbonate, caustic soda, paper and paperboard, chemical fertilizer, ethylene,ammonia, and calcium carbide; 4 Fossil fuel resources, including coal, natural gas and oil; 5 Recycling materials, including waste building
materials, cement admixtures, glass, paper, plastic, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc and waste steel

30

K. JIANG et al.

costs resulting from the transition, zero-carbon-emission
technology exports could increase, with costs forimported energy greatly reduced, and higher productivity
due to technology innovation, the transition could also
have a positive impact on economic development by
increasing the GDP rather than reducing it, as manystudies have shown.
There would still be some trade-offs in the transition
among different objectives. The use of CCS for fossil
fuels could have negative effects on energy for air
pollutant control due to increased energy use, and it may
also increase water demand. In energy transition pathways,
the amount of fossil fuel that can be used with CCS islimited, and the total impact on air pollution control andwater use is also limited.
On the whole, an energy transition pathway with acarbon neutrality target in China could also support therealization of the SDGs in China by 2030.
An energy transition could support different
objectives, therefore the promotion of energy transition
may be supported by different government agencies andorganizations in China. Making an energy transition
toward an energy system in which lean energy dominates
is a multiple-win strategy in China, and should bestrongly promoted now for the various benefits it would
bring.
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Kejun JIANG
Dr. Kejun Jiang received his Ph. D from the Tokyo
Institute of Technology in 1999. From 1993, hebegan his research on climate change relative toenergy policy analysis, focusing on energy
technology policy assessment, energy supply
policy assessment, renewable energy development
and energy conservation. Starting from 1997, he worked with the IPCC on
the Special Report on Emission Scenario and the Working Group III Third
Assessment Report. Currently he .is a senior researcher at the Energy
Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Macro-economic Research, where
his research focuses on energy transition and energy policy assessment
using modeling tools.

Chenmin HE
Prof. Chenmin He is an assistant professor at
Zhejiang University of Technology. Her research
focuses on linking energy transition with otherdevelopment goals including SDGs, air quality,
water policies.

Pianpian XIANG
Ms. Pianpian Xiang is a doctoral candidate at
Beijing University of Technology. Her research
focuses on green hydrogen technology andzero-carbon ammonia manufacture technology
assessment.

Xiulian HU
Prof. Xiulian Hu is a senior researcher at theEnergy Research Institute, Chinese Academy ofMacro-economic Research. Her research focuseson energy transition and, energy policy
assessment.

(Received 4 October 2022, Accepted 28 December 2022)