20 Years of WEPA Activities—What to Be Considered Next?
Motoyuki Suzuki*

WEPA Advisor (2004-2024.3)

I.

Anthropocene—Rapid Expansion of HumanActivities on the Earth since 1950 (3 Slides)

II. Final Remarks: Need of Paradigm Shift for
Future Sustainability Development (3 Slides)
III. Reference: Situation of WEPA Member Countries;
Diversity in Nature and Artifact Situations (8 Slides)* Professor Emeritus, University of Tokyo

Anthropocene

Paul Crutzen proposed firstto discriminate the current
years from the Holocene.

• Modern human’s activities started since ca. 11,700 yrs ago when the nearest
ice age terminated (Holocene).
• Population has been rapidly increased after the scientific revolution era andespecially since around1950, significant human impact on
Earth's geology, landscape, limnology and ecosystems. It is now underdiscussion how to define “Anthropocene” by the IUGS Committee.

ANTHROPOCENE (Human Dominant Epoch (1950- ))I. World Population and Economy 1950-2020
SDGs

Population Growth：Corona1950

WEPA
Started
Lehman Shock2

Tiananmen Event

4

Plaza Agreement

70

6376

Oil Crisis (II)Dollar Shock6

Oil Crisis (I)Vietnamese War ( - )Petroleum EraStarted

8060

Berlin Wall

10Series of Terrorist Attacks
Asian Money Crisis

12Start of EU
End of East-West Cold War

Economy （GWP＊、10 trillion $）Population (billion)

MDG

1419
1.5 ％/yr= 3.1 times / 70 yrs.
Economic Growth： 13 times / 70 yrs.

8090

2000

1020Yeaｒ＊GWP, PPP (constant 2017 international $)ANTHROPOCENE (Human Dominant Epoch (1950- ))II. Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass,Ron Milo et al, Nature (2020)

Dry Weight (Tera ton)

1.4Biomass

1.21.00.8
0.6

Carbon: 545 Gt
Plant 450
Bacteria 70
Fungi
12Protozoa 4
Animal2-----

2020±6

Anthropod 1
Fish0.7
Livestock 0.2
Human0.06
Wild Animal 0.007-----

BricksSggregates (Gravel, etc.)

0.2
01950

MetalsAsphalt

Anthropogenic
Mass

0.4

OthersConcrete

60

70

80

90

2000

1020

Yeaｒ
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-3010-5

Population, Economy, Anthropogenic
Activities

Conventional Growth Curve
to Sustainability Development
Collapse

Climate: Hot weather, Flood,

Aridification, etc.
Biosystem: Forest Fire,Diversity Loss, Food Shortage,
Zoonotic Diseases, etc.
Geological: Earthquake,Volcano, etc.

Soft Landing ??

Exponential
GrowthPlanetary Boundary
Saturation

Sustainable
Level ??

20 Century-type,GDP/Urbanization-oriented

Hard landing,
ExtinctionTime

Modified from M. Suzuki, UNU (2004)

Paradigm Shift Required Now
Growth Paradigm⇒ Sustainability Paradigm

Priority on “Economy”

Understanding “Well-Being”

GDP First

GPI、GNH、HPI“Efficiency, Effectiveness”

Ask if the Destination isa Meaningful One

Speed First

Artifacts May Accelerate
Human Activities Infinitely“Technology Versatility”

Centralized Huge Urban
Systems
Mono-cultured Globalization

Activities Within the Capacityof Ecosystem Services
Distributed Concise Systems
Nature-positive Diversified
Localization

What is “Development”?
After Mahbubu Ul Haq (1934-98)• Basic purpose of development is towiden the choice of the people.
In principle, range of choice is infinity
and changes with times.
• People often appreciate matters which cannot beeasily translated into revenue or growth, such as: easy
access to knowledge, improvement of nutritious
conditions and health services, more stable livelihood,security against crime and violence, sufficient leisuretime, political and cultural freedom, participation incommunity activities, etc.
• Target of development is to create an environment
where people can enjoy long, healthy and creativelives.

Urbanization in WEPA countries
JPN

100

KOR

(% of Total Population)

Urban Population

90

MYS

80

CHN

70

IDN
THA

60

PHL

50

VNM

40

LAO

30

MMR
KHM

20

NPL

10

LKA

0

WLD
1960

1970

1980

1990

Year

2000

2010

2020

% of Population

Population with safely managed Sanitation
Services(From World Bank, WDI)
100

KOR

90

JPN

80

MYS

70

CHN
PHL

60

LAO

50

MMR

40

NPL

30

VNM

20KHM

10THA

02000

WLD

2005

2010

Year

2015

2020

Water Resources and Utilization in WEPA Countries
Water Withdrawals per Capita (ton/yr)(from WB, WDI)

1000

VNM
THA
LKA
KOR

100

10CHN

JPN

PHL

IDN

LAO
MMR

WLDNPLKHM

MYS

Agriculture
Domestic

1

Industry

1000
10000
100000Internal Renewable Water Resources per Capita (ton/yr)

Population Density and Forest Area

(2021data, from World Bank, WDI)

Forest Area Fraction (%)

100
90
80
70

LAO

60
50

KHM

40

MMR

30

WLD

20JPN

MYS

KOR

IDN
THA

NPL

VNM

LKA
PHL

CHN

1000100200

300

400

500

Population Density (people per square kilometer)

600

(Light Pollution by Artifacts)
Asiaat Night(1600×800)
earth_lights_lrg.jpg(bp.blogspot.com)

Asia at Daytime

Asian Standard Solar Intensity Database

2/day = 11.6 W/m2)(FromNEDO, Yearly Averaged
Solar
Flux Density,
1 MJ/mYearly-average
Solar
Densityin AsianAreas

69
12
15
1821
24
MJ/m2/dayearth_lights_lrg.jpg (1600×800)(bp.blogspot.com)

Annual Runoff in Asia

http://www.grdc.sr.unh.edu/Monthly

“Thank You”谢谢고맙습니다
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