Study Conducted in support of Industrial Disaster Prevention
Research Group[Abstract]
In Japan, various measures are being taken in order to prevent disasters. As the importanceof risk management in the world economy grows, the need has grown for management thataims to ensure the "continuity" of important activities and early "recovery" as part ofbusiness activities even in the event of an unforeseeable emergency such as a disaster.
The Chubu region is a global industrial center because manufacturers that are working as
members of tightly organized and intricately coordinated international or do mestic supply
chains are concentrated in the region. Some say, however, that Chubu is one of the mostthreatened regions where the probability of occurrence of a strong earthquake is high. Thereis concern that if international physical distribution is interrupted because of a disaster, thefactories of the world will be unable to continue production.
As if trying to prevent such a disastrous scenario, vigorous efforts have been being made,guided by an idea proposed by the Chubu Regional Bureau of the Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, to ensure logistic service continuity under two
slogans: "2 Shifts" and "2 Links." These efforts have been made under the leadership of theIndustrial Disaster Prevention Research Group of Port User Companies (hereafter referred toas "Industrial Disaster Prevention Research Group" or "Research Group") composed ofindustry, academia and government members. The aim of these efforts is to identify
industrial disaster prevention needs in the Chubu region and the direction of efforts (whatthose efforts should be like) to be made in order to achieve business continuity and earlyrecovery in the event of a disaster.
This study was conducted in support of the Research Group, and this paper reports details of
the study, focusing mainly on the knowledge gained by the Research Group.

【2 Shifts】
・Protecting business activities as well as people's lives
・ Shifting the goal from protecting facilities to protecting
services【2 Links】
・Strengthening industry academia government cooperation
・Regarding roads and ports as interconnected parts of a
network

1.Study items
The flow chart (study items) for this study is shown in Figure 1.
【 De f i n i t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l di s a s t e r 】【 I de n t i f y i n g i n d u s t r i a l di s a s t e r p re v e n t i o n ne e d s 】
・ Industrial disaster prevention trends
・ Examples of industrial disasters
・ Examples of industrial disaster prevention efforts

・ Disasters in the Chubu region
・ Present state of industrial disaster prevention in
the Chubu region

Necessity of industrial disaster prevention in the Chubu region【 E st a b l i s h i n g p re p a re d ne s s f o r i n d u s t r i a l di s a s t e r pre v e nt i o n 】【 E st i m a t i n g d am a ge 】
Logistic functions to be considered

Disasters to be considered

Logistic damage mainly in port areas
Calculation of economic loss due to impairment of international logistic functions【 I de n t i f y i n g t he d i re c t i o n o f i n d u s t r i a l di s a s t e r p re v e n t i o n e f f o r t s 】
Necessity of recovery goal
sharing and public–private
cooperation

Stable collection and provision of
information to maintain logistic
functions

Relationship between business activities
and disaster prevention measures

Comprehensive efforts torestore logistic functions

Consistency with disaster prevention plans【 Re c o m m e n d a t i o n s o n i n d u s t r i a l d i s a st e r pre ve n t i o n e f f o r t s 】

Figure 1

Study flow

2.Study method(1) Definition of industrial disaster prevention
The new concept of "industrial disaster prevention" is defined, and the scope of thestudy is clarified.
(2) Identifying industrial disaster prevention needs
The state of industrial disaster prevention efforts in Japan is reviewed by studying theindustrial disaster prevention trends in Japan, examples of business and infrastructuredamage and examples of industrial disaster prevention efforts of businesses andgovernment organizations. Disaster risks to wh ich the industries in the Chubu region are
exposed are also identified by studying the past disasters and likely future disasters in
the Chubu region and the present state of industrial disaster prevention efforts in theregion.
(3) Establishing preparedness for industrial disaster prevention
This section discusses a system for industry–academia–govern ment cooperation forindustrial disaster prevention.
(4) Estimating damage
Logistic functions and disasters to be considered are identified in view of thecharacteristics of disasters and industries in the Chubu region, and likely logistic
damage related mainly to ports and harbors is estimated. In order to quantitatively
evaluate damage caused by a major disaster, the amount of economic loss in the event of
a complete impairment of international logistic functions in the Ise Bay area isestimated.
(5) Identifying the direction of industrial disaster prevention efforts
In order to achieve the goal of industrial disaster prevention in the Chubu region, which
is a region of manufacturing industry, concepts were identified about the "necessity ofshared recovery goals and public–private cooperation," "stable collection and provisionof information to maintain logistic functions," "co mprehensive efforts for recovery oflogistic functions," "relationship between business activities and disaster prevention
measures" and "consistency with disaster prevention plans."(6) Recommendations on industrial disaster prevention efforts
On the basis of Item (5) above, recommendations on industrial disaster prevention
efforts were developed.

3.Study results(1) Definition of industrial disaster prevention"Industrial disaster prevention" was defined as a series of efforts including not only
conventional disaster prevention efforts to protect life and property in the event of an
emergency but also efforts to maintain global industrial activities in an emergency andmake early recovery possible.
In the study, international logistic functions (logistic services) that require thecooperation among various "players" was also considered.

(2) Identifying industrial disaster prevention needs
The Chubu region is exposed to the dangers of major earthquakes (Tonankai, Nankai andTokai earthquakes) and seismically induced hazards such as tsunami and typhoons.
Chubu is also a region with a high concentration of manufacturing industries operatingas part of highly developed global supply chains. A major disa ster in a region like this
could not only stop the production activities of the manufacturing industries but also
have an immediate global impact (Figs. 2 to 4).
The logistic structure (supply chains) of the manufacturing industries in the Chubu
region is highly dependent on marine transportation. Consequently, a complete
impairment of international logistic functions due to a major disaster could lead to ahuge economic loss. International logistic functions are supported by the ports. In the
Chubu region (Aichi Prefecture), the percentage of the quantity of container cargo(export) handled at local ports is much higher than at other major ports, and the ports
and the local areas (hinterlands) are closely connected. It is therefore necessary tomaintain not only the port functions but also the land transportation functions to link the
producing areas (consuming areas) and the ports (Figs. 5 and 6).
International physical distribution is supported by various structural and nonstructuralfunctions and many "players." The lack of any single element, therefore, is highly likely
to result in functional impairment. It is necessary, therefore, for all players including
production, physical distribution and infrastructure development to cooperate closely tocontribute to industrial disaster prevention in the Chubu region (Fig. 7).

T中
h部
e C
u bには
u reg
n ーバ
has ル
a h
igh プ
c oラ
n cイチ
e n t rェa t iーンo n oを
f 展
地h域
グi oロ
なサ
manufacturers participating in global supply
開する製造業が集積。
《
c hKaeiyn ps r o d u c t i o n f a c i l i t i e s o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l《自動 車メーカーの 世界の生産拠 点》
automotive anufacturers. 》

12 locations in Japan(Chubu region)

７
６ Upper
６ Lower
５ Upper
５ Lower４３ or lower

E
port
輸x出
I輸
m入
port

千トン

Fi g u r e 2

1 0,00 0
9,00 08,00 07,00 06,00 0
1 , 0 0 0 5,00 0
tons
4,00 03,00 02,00 01,00 00

Seismic intensity distribution of the
To n a n k a i , Na n k a i a n d To k a i e a r t h q u a k e s

Source: Prepared from the report of the 14th meeting of the Central
Disaster Management Council's Special Board of Inquiry on
the Tonankai, Nankai and other earthquakes

2 0H12
00

2 H1
0 031

2 H014
02

2 H15
003

2H016
04

《 Quantity of auto parts handled at ports in
t h e C《中部h u b u 地域の港湾のr e g i o n 》 自動車部品取 扱量》
・ F o u r To k a i p r e f e c t u r e s ' s h a r e o f m a n u f a c t u r e d

・ 東海
pro4
d u県の製
c t s h i造品出
p m e n t荷額のi n J a全国シp a n : ェア 23.6％
2 3 . 64%県の輸 送用機 械の出 荷額全 国シェ ア・ 東海・ F o u r To k a i p r e f e c t u r e s ' s h a r e o f t r a51.2％
nsportatione q u i p m e n t s h i p m e n t i n J a pa n :T東海４県は製造業に依存
h e f o u r To k a i p r e f e c t u r e s a r e d e p e n d e n t o nmanufacturing industries.
・東海4県の製造業従事者人口は約200
・
A b o u t 2 m i l l i o n p e o p l e a r e e万人
ngaged in manufacturing.
・P e r c e n t a g e o f m a n u f a c 製造業従事者の割合26％
turing workers in all workers in
・東海4県の労働力人口に占める
t h e f o u r To k a i p r e f e c t u r e s : 2 6 %（全国平均17％、関東16％、関西19％）(national average: 17%, Kanto: 16%, Kansai: 19%)

Fi g u r e 4
Fi g u r e 3

E a rt h q u a k e -i n d u c e d p o r t d a m a g e

Source:Kobe City Website, Kobe: Earthquake Damage and War

C o nc e nt r a t i on o f ma n u f a c t u r e r s i n
t h e C h u b u r e gi on

Source:Prepared
from
port
statistics,
2004
industrial statistics and 2005 census data

D a m a g eofMlocal
u s e u (prefecture)m
Percentage
cargo handled at major ports
自県内比率
0.0%

Tokyo
東京
Yokohama
横浜

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

Factories in the
Chubu region

32.0%

Fi g u r e 5

Factories in othercountries

69.5%
78.2%

Yokkaichi
四日市

Kobe
神戸

100.0%

8.8%

Nagoya
名古屋

Osaka
大坂

80.0%

48.2%

Production facilities of the world are unable tocontinue production if international physicaldistribution is interrupted.

36.3%

P e r c e nt a g e o f l oc a l ( p r e f e c t u r e )c a rg o h a n d l e d a t m a j o r p o r t s

Fi g u r e 6

P o r t - b a se d g l o b a l d i s t r i b ut i o n n e t w o r kSource: Prepared from 2003 export and import container
cargo survey data

International physical distribution is supported by various functions and players.
The lack of any of them could impair the distribution function.

Fi g u r e 7

Players in international logistics

(3) Establishing preparedness for industrial disaster prevention
As mentioned in Item (2) above, international physical distribution is supported by many
players. In order to maintain the function (logistic services), it is necessary to think ofports as an integrated network consisting of roads and ports instead of regarding ports as
individual facilities.
Because of this need, the Industrial Disaster Prevention Research Group of Port User
Companies (chaired by Prof. Tatsuo Ito,
Honorary President of Nagoya Sangyo
University) consisting of industry–

Establishment of the Industrial Disaster Prevention
Research Group of Port User Companies◆Concept of logistic services

academia–government representatives
including cargo owner companies,

Arterial
roadlogistic companies, academic experts
and administrators was established
as an organization for promoting

Factory
officeMunicipal road
Below-sea-level
area
River

◆Members
Cargo owners, logistic companies,
academic experts, administrators,
etc. needed to maintain logistic
services
Chubu Economic Federation
Nagoya Chamber of Commerceand Industry
Nagoya University
Nagoya Sangyo University
Nagoya Port Authority
Chubu Regional Bureau(Road Department and Portand Airport Department)
etc.

industrial disaster prevention efforts
Seawall(Fig. 8). Keeping industry–academia–government in mind, the Research

Port Container
area terminal

industrial

disasterprevention

Cargo
handling
equipment
Quay

Group is working on a continual basis
to share information and enhance

SeawallPort

Fi g u r e 8◆Research Group meetings
First meeting

September 26,

about 90 participants
Second meeting

December 7,

about 120 participants
Third meeting

March 28,

about 200 participants

I n d u s t r i a l D i sa st e r P r e v e n t i o n Re s e a r c h
G ro u pefforts(seven preparation meetings and three research conferences have been held). Since the
Research Group is an open organization, the number of participants has increased overtime.
(4) Estimating damage(a) Logistic functions to be consideredInternational physical distribution in the Chubu region is heavily dependent on marinetransportation. The impairment of the foreign container cargo transportation function,
therefore, could cause tremendous damage to the manufacturing industries in the Chubu
region that are working as members of rapidly growing global supply chains. For thisreason, in this study "facilities" from the cargo owners' offices to the ports, "logistic
services" and "all players" related to foreign container cargo transportation wereconsidered.

(b) Disasters to be considered
Hazards that cause tremendous damage in th e Chubu region include earthquakes, tsunami
and storm surges. In this study, the long-predicted Tonankai, Nankai and Tokai
earthquakes, which are expected to cause extensive damage due to earthquakes andtsunami, were considered(c) Calculation of economic loss due to impairment of international logistic functions
Economic losses related to foreign container cargo resulting from the impairment ofinternational logistic functions caused by a disaster were calculated by the four methods
shown below (Table 1).

Ta b l e 1

R e s u l t s o f c a l c u l a t i o n o f e c o n o mi c l o s s d u e t o i m p a i r m e n t o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l l o g i s t i c f u n c t i o n s
C o nc e p t

Calculation method

Economic loss
Company T (automotive)

The sales of the departments of(1) Loss of sales ofmajor manufacturers
in the Chubu region

Chubu-based manufacturers whose
operation is stopped because of theimpairment of international logistic
functions are calculated as economic
losses.

About 124.6 billion yen/week
Company B (office equipment, machine tools)
About 8.4 billion yen/week
Company C (fine ceramics)
About 5.6 billion yen/week
Company O (machine tools)
About 1.4 billion yen/week

Economic losses due to theinterruption of international trade at(2) Loss due toInterruption ofinternational trade

Nagoya Port are calculated assumingthat a disaster at Nagoya Port has

About 137.9 billion yen/week

caused the international marinet r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f c o n t a i n e r c a rg o t obe interrupted so that international
trade is completely interrupted.
Losses due to cargo flowinterruption caused by the(3) Loss due toimpairment of port functions are

falling of prices

calculated from "the cost due toresulting from cargof a l l i n g o f c a rg o

flow interruption(products/merchandise) prices" andcaused by impairment"the cost of the interest incurred byof port functions

a delay in the recovery of

About 13.3 billion yen/week

investment in cargo(products/merchandise)."
Alternative routes of land

Alternative port

Land route

Marine routetransportation (container trailer)
and marine transportation (RORO

S e n d a i S h i o g a m a P o r t 11 5 , 1 4 5 y e n / T E U 7 0 , 2 0 8 y e n / T E U( 4 ) Tr a n s p o r t a t i o nvessel) to alternative ports to be

Hitachinaka Port

cost due to the use ofused in the event of an impairment

Yo k o h a m a P o r t

70,420 yen/TEU 39,428 yen/TEU

alternative routesof a port in the Chubu region are

F u s h i k i To y a m a P o r t

47,943 yen/TEU

identified, and the transportation

Kobe Port

4 5 , 0 9 8 y e n / T E U 5 1 , 11 3 y e n / T E U

cost in each case is calculated as theamount of loss.

82,451 yen/TEU 53,393 yen/TEU

(5) Identifying the direction of industrial disaster prevention efforts(a) Recovery goal sharing
Judging from the Hanshin Great Earthquake, it is likely that many businesses will start
recovery activities in about one week after the occurrence of a disaster. Co mpleting
emergency recovery work in one week after the occurrence of a disaster, therefore, wasdefined as a common goal for the international logistic system consisting of roads, ports
and other facilities (Fig. 9)
Post-disaster emergency recovery time goal for port functions

One week
Earthquake Preparedness Guidelines for Businesses (March, 2004, Chubu Economic Federation)
It is assumed that in the worst-case earthquake disaster scenario, the lifelines (electric power supply andtelephone service) are restored in one week so that restoration activities can be started.
In normal
times

In an
emergency

Goal forRecovery to
restoration of pre-disaster
port functions levelPorts provide assistancefor business recovery

Occurrenceof a disaster
Activity
Measures tolevel(e.g., the be taken byquantity businessesofproducts
supplied)

Forming emergency responseorganizations

Cooperation with local
communities

Mobilizing emergency response
personnel

Providing assistance forvolunteer activities

Letting employees other than emergency
response personnel go homeForming restoration
organizations

Restoration
activities

Rescue and first aid
Evacuation
Finding out about the safety of people
Building damage

Likelycircumstances

Lifeline restoration(electric power supply
and telephone service)

Starting lifeline
restoration

InjuryFire
Lifeline failure

1 day

2–3 days

Fi g u r e 9

7 daysTime

Recovery goal

Source: Prepared from Earthquake Preparedness Guidelines for Businesses(b) Stable collection and provision of information to maintain logistic functions
It is necessary to create a system that makes it possible to collect and provide
information on international logistic system elements such as roads and ports not on afacility-by-facility basis but on an area-by-area basis in the form of comprehensive
information that also covers such elements as alternative routes and alternative facilities.
Immediately after a disaster or during a restoration period, necessary information suchas information on the degree of damage to and availability of facilities and the prospectsof restoration activities should be collected and provided, and the information needed bybusinesses and government organizations to maintain logistic functions should beshared.

(c) Co mprehensive efforts to restore logistic functions
In order to share information on logistic functions, businesses and governmentorganizations need to perform a complete review of the functions of the facilities
constituting the physical distribution routes that can be performed in the event of adisaster. The complete review needs to cover both structural and nonstructural aspects
and also response measures to be taken in the event of a disaster such as securing
alternative distribution routes and taking management actions for that purpose.

(d) Relationship between business activities and disaster prevention measures
The basic rule is for individual businesses to take disaster prevention measures on theirown in their business activities. However, regional measures that must be taken toprotect the national interests or that are beyond the control of many businesses, such as
information the maintenance and safety of international logistic functions, need to be
implemented as a concerted community effort by the centra l government, local
govern ments and businesses. The government need s to exercise its influence on disasterprevention measures to be taken for facilities whose damage could affect a large areasuch as hazardous materials handling facilities. For these reasons, it is necessary for thegovernment to provide assistance to businesses in connection with their disasterprevention measures.

(e) Consistency with disaster prevention plans
In accordance with the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act, local governments are
implementing disaster prevention measures such as drawing up a "regional disasterprevention plan" with the aim of protecting the land of Japan and life and property fromhazards.
Fro m the industrial point of view, because local residents are employees of businesses
and because the maintenance of industrial activities leads to the protection of thelivelihood of the local residents, industrial disaster prevention and the regional disasterprevention plan share many goals. It is therefore necessary to take measures to achieve
consistency with the regional disaster prevention plan by, for example, identifying therequirements for industrial disaster prevention in the regional disaster prevention plan.

(6) Recommendations on industrial disaster prevention efforts
In view of the direction of the efforts to be made described in Item (e) above, the ResearchGroup has drawn up the recommendations shown below. For reference purposes, Table 2
shows examples of measures that can be taken.

S u m m a r y o f r e c o m m e n d a t i on s

• The Chubu region, the region of manufactures, is an industrial center not only of Japanbut also of the world. Maintaining business activities in the Chubu region, therefore, isof vital importance, and it is the social responsibility of the businesses in the Chubu
region to aim to restore their activities in the event of a disaster.
• Business activities and road and port activities must be restored concurrently. About
70 percent of the container exports from Nagoya Port, which is the third-ranked port inJapan in terms of container throughput, come from within Aichi Prefecture. Thisconsiderably differs from the percentages for other major ports, which range from 10
to 50 percent(1) Working toward common restoratio n goals, conducting public–private joint
studies and establishing systems
It is recommended that co mmo n goals for the restoration of business and port
activities (e.g., quantifiable goals such as restoration in a week) be shared, andconcrete measures to be taken be identified through public–private joint studies, andthat systems for doing that be established.
(2) Stably collecting and providing information to maintain logistic functions
It is recommended that a system be established for providing information on the
degree of recovery of international physical distribution at ports and other relevant
matters including access routes in a stable manner even in the event of a disaster.
(3) Comprehensive efforts to restore logistic functions
It is reco mmended that co mprehensive efforts including finding ways to secure accessroutes be made so that logistic functions concerned with many entities such as port
management, custo ms clearance, shipping service and cargo handling can be
performed smoothly.

Table 2

Examples of measures to be taken( 2 ) St a b l y c o l l e c t i n g a n d p r o v i d i n g i n f or m a t i o n t o m a i n t a i n l o g i s t i c f u n c t i o n s
Me a su r e s

De s cr i p ti o n( i ) E st a b l i s h i n g a s y s t e m f o r p r o v i d i n g

Establishinga n d s h a r i n g i n f o r ma t i o n i n t h e e v e n t o f

a u t h o r i t i e s , l o g i s t i c c o m p a n i e s , c a rg o o w n e r c o m p a n i e s , e t c . , t oa d i sa st e rshare relevant information such as information on the status ofasystemthatenablesport

authorities,

roaddamage, alternative transportation routes and the recovery status(ii) Conducting studies on plans andDrawing up plans for preparatory measures, emergency measuress y s t e m s f o r m a i nt a i n i n g p o r t f u n c t i o n s

and restoration measures to be taken to maintain port functions in
the event of a disaster and conducting studies on systems for
implementing it

(3 ) C o m pr e h en s iv e ef f o rt s t o re s t or e l o g is t i c f un c t io n s
Me a su r e s

De s cr i p ti o n(i) Complete review of weaknesses in

Conducting a complete review of the structural and nonstructural

di s t r i b ut i o n r o u t e s a n d s t u d i e s o nelements of distribution routes from cargo owner companies toalternative routes

ports, identifying their weaknesses, and determining alternativetransportation routes on the basis of the findings(ii) Conducting a complete review ofConducting a complete review of port plan details and redesigningport

the arrangement of facilities for redundancy to make sure theyplan(usingaarrangement of port facilities)

redundant

function in the event of a disaster