Map of nanotech global catastrophic risksTime

Negligible global risk

2020
Nanoparticles

Toxicity ofnanoparticles• In general nanotubes and fullerens
are not toxic• Some types of nanoparticles canpenetrate into lungs and blood resulting in allergic reactions and inflammation, wiki
• It looks like a hypothetical nano-particles toxicity issue was raised
to distract attention from more remote and serious risks of nanotech.
• But caution is needed becausesome kind of very toxic nanoparticles
may yet be found.

2030
Micro-robots

Microdrones
Intelligence and deliveryof explosives

Microbots
10 mm size
• Artificial bees, with poisonous bites• Traditional manufacturing method

Some risk«As an example, the smallest insect
is about 200 microns. This createsa plausible size estimate for a
nanotech-built antipersonnel weapon
capable of seeking and injecting
toxin into unprotected humans. The
human lethal dose of botulism toxin
is about 100 nanograms, or about
1/100 the volume of the weapon.
As many as 50 billion toxin-carrying
devices — theoretically enough to killevery human on earth — could bepacked into a single suitcase».

• Unlimited replication of specially designed bioagent.

• Preventive measures for accidental release are known: nanobots must depend on
rare materials for replication; most tasks
can be solved without creating replicators.

• Living cells, capable of synthesizing mechanical details using DNA-origami andprogrammable for any task.

Speed up ofAI creation, which
could be unfriendly

Dimming and coolingof the atmosphere

Microbots
100 mkm size
• Delivery of botulism toxin (Lethaldose is 100 ng)• Cheap lithographic production withelements of self-assembling andgrowing using biological parts

Remote controlled nanobots not capable of replication

Nanoshield

Global protection system from
nantoech risks• If they fly high in the air and consumeCO2, it will result in a new Ice Age.
• Grey plankton, more in Freitas article

Nanoshield failure• Wrong command• Autoimmune reaction

Brain control• Creation of effective neuro-implants,
which may be installed secretly andcontrol human behavior.
• Neuro-implants and other prostheses
may be hacked by computer virus(globally) causing harm and death.

Terrorist
grey goo attack
Nanobots may be specially designed tocause extinction event, which could beachieved in several stages:
1. Secret dissemination through earth’s
surface in small quantities
2. Replication
3. Attack on infrastructure and humans.

• War between two shields

Nanoshieldelements• Surveillance system: local andspace-based• Non-specific defence: dispersed
nanobots

Molecular
Nanomanufacturing
DNA-origami
robots2050• Nanobots will use solar radiation for
power and atmospheric CO2 for material.

Microbots
1 mm size• Any arms can be created in almost unlimited quantities, including missiles, drones,robots; weapons of mass destruction become self replicating.
• Filtration of uranium from ocean water,
isotope separation using nano-filters andthe creation of large nuclear stockpiles andenormous bombs (hundreds of gigatons)• Creation of large scale infrastructure, including bombs and weapons.

High risk

Risk• Could be used in new types of biological weapons• Made on DNA-origami

Green goo:bionanobots• Self-replicating nanobots eating carbon
could kill all of the biosphere in two days.

• Creation of computronium: very
powerful computers will enable quicker AIarrival.

• Artificial fleas, delivery of toxins
and bio-weapons.
• Lithographic printing of details

Simplenanomechanic
without computers

Accidential Grey goo:
ecophagy• Brain scanning using nanobots will provide secrets of the human mind.

Targeted
nanoparticles• Are used in medicine• May be used to deliver toxins andgenes• They are lipid balls with attachedligands

2040
Nanorobot-replicators• Instant colonisation of solar system starting by one single replicating space robot,
and the creation of potentially dangerouslarge objects within it including artificial asteroids and thermonuclear ignition of gas
planets.

• Ideal: most matter is converted
into nanotech, no unprotectedresources exist

Private nanoprinters• Can print any weaponry (even now it ispossible to print a gun)• Could print living matter including
viruses.
• Could print self-replicating nanobots.
• May be infected by computer viruses which will make them print dangerous
things including bombs and replicators.
• Protection ideas: constant cryptographic
connection with service centre to prevent
jailbreak.

Nanotechweapons

Unstablearms race

Clouds of nanobots capable of self-replication, short-cutting circuits, killing living
force, creation Utility For and self-assembling in large-scale assault weapons.

Nanotech allows the secret development ofarms, control is difficult and even a private
person could gain an advantage if they
started creating a nano-infrastructure first.

(c) Alexey Turchin, 2014 , CC3.0