下⽥研究室

⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Prospects for Green Transformation
focusing on the energy demand-side

2023.3.6
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth（RITE)
Director-General

Yoshiyuki Shimoda1

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻1．
Wrap-up the symposium2下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻2．
Condition of carbon-neutral energy system3

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Condition of carbon-neutral energy system• Annual energy balance
Carbon-free energy supply＝Energy demand• Always keeping electricity supply/demand:
Supply of carbon-free electricity＝Electricity demand4下⽥研究室

⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻First equationenergy demand
Carbon free energy＝service

servicesufficiency

𝑠𝑢𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦
population

population

Renewable energy

1st term︓Inverse of energy efficiency

Nuclear2 nd term︓Inverse of lifestyle efficiency

Blue/greenhydrogen/ammonia/e-fuelsService︓thermal environment,brightness, information, etc.

Fossil Fuel Thermal
with CCS

Sufficiency

 Present share of renewable electricity is 20%. In order to increase
the renewable energy ratio to 80%, it is more realistic to reduce thepower demand to 50% and double the renewable electricity power
rather than quadrupling renewable electricity.
Shimoda, et al.: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 132 (2020), 115792

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻

Is it possible to reduce electricity demand by 50%?

3500
3126

3000
2500

Generation

2238

2000

Hot water

1500

Cooling

1000

Heating

500

404

336

0479
176

161

110

Lighting
Other appliances-102 -78-93-500

-545

-1000

KitchenTV
Refrigerator-1500

Balance
E-3

E-2

E-1

D

B-2

C

B-1

A-2

A-1

2050BAU2030

Air temp
rise
Increase PV

Daylight use

Insulation

2013

-2000
ReduceAppliance
HP COP

Annual primary energy consumption and PV power
generation [PJ/year]• Evaluation of Japanese residential sector’s carbon-neutrality by2050. More than 50% energy reduction is possible with currently
available technology. BiPV can achieve positive energy.

Demographic

Shimoda et al. Applied Energy (2021)

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Second equation＝Variable renewableelectricity(PV, Wind)
NuclearFlexible renewable power(Hydro, Biomass)
Blue/green hydrogen/ammonia thermal power
Fossil fuel thermal powerwith CCS

BatteryHydrogen
ThermalstorageDR

Fluctuating demand(buildings)
Constant demand(Factory, data center）

Pulse demand（EVcharging）

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Influence of PV dissemination‘Duck carve’ in California, USand Kyushu Japan.
Steep increase of demand inevening. Planned blackout inAugust 2020. EV charging
escalate the situation

Source：CAISO

Increase daytime demandby HP water heater etc.
Demand response.
Battery, Heat Storage
Smart charging of EV
Heat from Biomass andSolar
Electricity supply/demand balance in Kyushu（May 5, 2016）
Source︓Kyushu Power company（Jul.2016）8下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Unbalanced Seasonal supply/demand.
Monthly balance of PV supply anddemand in Japanese residential
sector in the state of achieving
positive energy for the year

22% of electricity must be
stored more than a week →Hydrogen is required forlong-term energy storage.
Shimoda et al. Applied Energy(2021)

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Grid-interactive efficient buildings

出典：USDOE

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Herman Daly’s word

• 1． Who is going to require the energy?
• 2． How much energy?
• 3． What kind of energy?
• 4． For what purpose?
• 5． For how long?
Source: Lovins “Soft Energy Path”• Identifying each energy demand and classify themis the basis of energy management.

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下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻3．
Energy demand and service demand12下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Characteristics of energy demand• Energy demand is “derivative demand”.
• We don’t consume energy directly, but service.
energy demand
Carbon free energy＝service

servicesufficiency

𝑠𝑢𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦
population

population• A significant reduction in energy demand can beachieved by narrowing down the services necessary toprovide sufficiency (Avoid), changing the system that
supplies services (Shift), and supplying services with aslittle energy as possible (Improve).
(IPCC WG3 Chap5)13

下⽥研究室IPCC Special report on 1.5℃
⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Demand 32% down、 Demand 2%up、RE
RE 77% BECCS 081%, BECCS 151Gt

LED Scenario(Low EnergyDemand)

Demand21%up, RE Demand 44%up, RE63%, BECCS 414Gt 70% BECCS 1191Gt

Other three pathways using negative emission technology
Source IPCC SR1.5 SPM

下⽥研究室LED Scenario

⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻• LED (Low Energy Demand) Scenario（Grubler et al.
Nature energy, 2018）• Five main drivers of long-term change in energy
end-use; Quality of Life, Urbanization, Novelenergy services, End-user roles, Information
innovation.
• Focusing the relationship between energy end-useand service.
• Low energy demand will be brought by information
innovation, sharing economy, and electrification.

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Services and energy efficiencies in LED scenario
Service demand

Activity level（Global North) Energy intensity

Thermal comfort30㎡/capita

Decrease by 75% to 160170MJ/㎡

Consumer goods

Increase by 2 to 42
device/capita

93→82kWh/device

Mobility

Decrease by 20%

Decrease by 70%

Food

Increase by 70〜100%

Not quantified.

Commercial andpublic buildings

Increase by 43％ to 23㎡/capita

Decrease by 76% to 139MJ/㎡

Industry

Decrease of material demand by
15％ to 6.4Gt(world)

Decrease by 1/5 to 16.7GJ/t

Freight transport

Increase by 20% to64×1012tkm

10% decrease in Truck
transport to 0.5-0.7 MJ /tkm、
10％ decrease in railway to0.2MJ/tkm-1
16Unequal consumption of energy

Top 1% of the world population consume 15% of energy. Next 10% consume 37%.
Remaining 90% consume only 48% energy.
Source：IPCC AR6 WG3 chap. 5

Avoid-Shift-Improve Options

Source：IPCC AR6 WG3 chap. 5

4．
Impact of digitalization on energy demand19下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Structure of energy demand science
Human Dimension
Identification ofService required tomaintain sufficiency

Clarification of the mechanismthat induces human behavior
and its implementation by IoTSufficiency

Servicedemand
Innovative products based onnewly defined service demand

EnergydemandWhich factors are supporting
sufficiency?

Monitoring and management ofdevices by IoT technology

TechnicalDimension

Creation of new Value
through monitoring ofdevice operationDigital Dimension
IoT20

Digital Convergence

出典：IIASA21

Discussion on Digital Convergence• Smartphones have not been expanding their functions
to energy efficiency. In advancement of digitaltechnology, the expansion of the services provided bydevice has resulted in a reduction of energy use.
• While reducing device energy consumption, thefollowing issues remain.
• Many services such as GPS and car navigation functions
process information in data centers located in remotelocations. Is it really energy efficient when considering theenergy consumption in data centers?
• Each device before integration to smartphone has a longer
life than a smartphone. Therefore, functional integration
shortens the life of device and increases the ratio ofembodied energy to the life cycle energy consumption, andmaking eco-design and recycling of device important.

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Digitization creates transformation across sectors
Information system, data center
Non-residential building
Thermal comfortlighting
equipment
appliance
shelter

Work, study,
leisureHousing

Decent living
standard

Thermal comfort
Lighting
Audio, visual,
information
Sanitary
Cooking
Shelter

Mobility

Clothing, foodloPassenger
transport

International
trade
Agriculture

Manufacturer
Material production

venous industry

Telework
E-commerce
Auto drive EV

Freight transport

Land use

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Digitization creates transformation across sectors
Information system, data center
Non-residential building
Thermal comfort
lighting
equipment
appliance
shelter

Work, study,
leisureHousing

Decent living
standard

Thermal comfort
Lighting
Audio, visual,
information
SanitaryCooking
Shelter

Mobility

Clothing, foodloPassenger
transport

International
trade
Agriculture

Manufacturer
Material production

venous industry

Telework
E-commerce
Auto drive EV

Freight transport

Land use

Energy demand changes by teleworking

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻

Change in manufacturer• De-materialization and Efficient material use• Servicizing [Rental]• Reuse/recycle, remanufacturing, sharing economy• Long-life, advanced maintenance• Weight saving, material efficiency through eco-design• Efficiency and decarbonization of production• Energy efficient production and fossil fuel free production.
• On-demand production• 3D printing• Advanced demand forecasting and supply chain (Industry4.0)26

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻5.
How can we realize low energy demand and link to growth ofcompetitive industries?

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下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Servicizing• A business that sells services rather than products.
• Producers change the way they provide productfunctionality to meet consumer needs.
• Since the ownership remains in the hands of theproducer, efforts to reduce the environmental
burden at the time of disposal are easy to work.
• Recently, the concept has expanded totransportation (Mobility as a Service) in addition toproducts.
• How is in energy business?

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下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Climate Agreement (Gothenburg)
Energy supplier
Corporate principle of cost minimization,
optimization based on technological superiority

Building

Service

Transaction in KWh, m3, KJ
Lack of manpower and skill.
Energy efficiency incentive islow.

Energy Supplier
Least cost planning aiming end-use service.

Building

Service

Transaction
guarantees
indoorenvironment29

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Granular technology, Granular stakeholder• Granular technology• Part of the energy supply will be “granular technologies"
such as PV.
• Energy demand is also divided into device units, it is“granular technology".
• The same device is operated differently due to user’s
behavior.
• Digitization enables management of group oftechnologies.

• Granular stakeholder• Families and small businesses.
• Decisions depend not only the economical optimum.
• Insufficient information.
• It is difficult to make long-term investment.

• Needs to be aggregated and managed.
30下⽥研究室City/Community energy system.
⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻• Housing, construction, home appliances, building equipment, car,urban infrastructure etc., which account for the majority ofenergy demand in the building sector and passenger transport
sector, are fields in which Japan has a high level of technology andcan contribute to the decarbonization of the world.
• In order to enhance the demand for these decarbonization
technology, create further innovation, and contribute todecarbonization and green recovery, it is necessary to induce
performance improvements through continuous and ambitious
policies, and to encourage the public to disseminate them. Inparticular, it is important to spread these technology to allhouseholds in order to achieve decarbonization.
• In order to get participation of all households and small
businesses, it is important not only the payback year, but also toappeal the attractivity of decarbonized society consist of thesegoods. In the future, city/community scale efforts will beimportant, since most of EV charging will be occur in house orbuilding.

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Japanese excellent decarbonization technologies• Construction field.

• Prefabricated house• Environmental symbiosis design aided by simulation• Building equipment field• Package air conditioner
Important technology in the rapid growth• Refrigerator for HVACof cooling demand in Asia and Africa• Heat pump water heater• Lighting (LED)• Cogeneration technology(Fuel cell)• Battery• New concept PV (Perovskite)• Home electric appliances• Battery EV, Hydrogen vehicle, Charging/filling-up equipment• Power distribution, city-gas supply.
• Water and sewage systems, waste treatment, and integration of theseinfrastructure and urban energy system.
• Energy management system consists of these devices and IoT system

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻

Challenges of Japanese city/community• While Japan excels in technology of eachequipment, following points should beimproved.
• Systematization that integrates and optimizes eachelement in the city/community• Considering not only decarbonization but alsoachievement to SDGs, design ability to create
attractive city/community such as excellent
landscapes.

• To disseminate decarbonization technology, it
should be transformed from a “calorie table inrestaurant menu (only GHG reduction
performance” to a "menu" itself that attracts
the people, with co-benefits.

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Planfor Global
Warming Countermeasures：Bottom-up
of countermeasures and estimated effect.

Countermeasures
Energy saving standards for
newly built houses
Insulation retrofitting of existinghousesInstallation ofhighefficiency
water heaters[units]Electric HP
water heater

Condensing
gas/oil waterheater
Fuel cellcogeneration
Installation of high-efficiency
lighting devices

2013

6%

2030

Estimated Energy Demand Reduction [PJ]
Total
Electricity
Fuel

121.8

30.5

91.3

16.5

4.3

12.2

104.1

-10.2

114.3

30%

4,220,000 14,000,000
4,480,000 27,000,000
55,0005,300,000

9%

Approximately
100%

77.9

77.9

0.0

Improvement in applianceenergy efficiency by the toprunner Standard

–

–

51.7

40.6

11.1

Energy management by HEMS
and smart meters

0.2%

Approximately
100%

69.1

69.1

0.0

Efforts by citizens (CoolBiz/Warm Biz [1 °C relaxation ofset temperature] , promotion ofappliance replacement, homeenergy auditing)

–

–

8.7

4.1

4.5

449.8

216.4

238.5

Total

下⽥研究室Digital twin for carbon management
Plan for GlobalWarmingCounterCO2measures
reduction target⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻changes
Disasters(2030 from 2013level)
Residential -66%
Non-residential 51%(2021 version)

Countermeasures

Social changes
COVID-19
Demographics
Lifestyle
EconomyWeatherconditions

Low birthrate
Aging

Appliance & building
Purchasing behavior ownership

Measuresandpolicies

Target dissemination
ratio and its effect

External conditions
Progress oftechnology
Technical innovation
Digitalization

Energy use
Operation of applianceObserved value

Progressof countermeasures

Energy consumption
Selection of energy company
CO2 emission

Proposed newmanagement
System(Digital Twin)（Considerationof heterogeneity)

Simulation（Calibrationof model）

Weatherdata for eachyear
Weather impact correction

Current Progress
Evaluation
Individual statisticaldata（Heterogeneity ofhousehold/building）

Smart meter data
Net effect ofcountermeasures（Detection of change）

Re-evaluationof measures,
Planning newmeasures

Shimoda et. al. eceee summer study 2022

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Estimation result for Japanese Residential Sector

Energy use reduction from 2013 [PJ]

250

Weather200

Isulation

150Lighting

DHW
Air conditioner

100TV
Refregerator

50

Demographic
Heat gain

0-50

Total(TREES)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Statistics

Energy conservation in the residential sector is about 10% behind the plan.
Fujiwara, Shimoda, Nakanishi, Proceedings of JSER (2022)

下⽥研究室⼤阪⼤学⼤学院⼯学研究科／環境エネルギー⼯学専攻Thank you.

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