General Purpose Technology and Global
Warming: Solution to Global Warming
through Innovation and a Role of Japan
Taishi Sugiyama
The Canon Institute for Global Studies
ALPS International Symposium
Hosted by Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)
Tokyo
Feb. 19, 2019

（Views expressed are personal）
1

Risk of environmental impact
Risk“Black Swan”＝Events seldomly
occur but possibly
resulting in severe
impact(Taleb 2006)

CO2

Should precautionary principles be applied?
2

Risk of CO2 emission reductions
Risk

Lack of cooperation among countries
Economic losses
Move of manufacturers to overseasLoss of technology & science
Loss of national security

CO2Black swans hide in CO2 emission reductions.
3

Balance is needed
Precautionary principles are not applicable when trade-off is crucial.

Risk

CO24

Solution of environmental problems in the past
Development of affordable technology（=technology at acceptable cost） was the solution
to environmental problems in the real world.
E.g., Air pollution by car (NOx)： three-way catalyst
Air pollution by power generation (SOx)：
flue-gas desulfurization equipment5Successful examples of CO2 reductions
When there were affordable technologies, CO2 werereduced.

6

Shale gas

Shale gas

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=natural_gas_where7

Other examples of affordable technology• LED lamp
• Liquid-crystal display* Energy efficiency standard also accelerated
diffusion of affordable equipment
8

FutureTechnological progress will continue in many aspects…
… Affordable technologies will enable CO2 emissions.
By what strategies & policies ?

9Massive CO2 cut of cars by three revolution• Self driving, EV, and carsharing(=3R) lead tolarge economic benefits and CO2 reductions.

https://www.itdp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/UCD10
ITDP-3R-Report-FINAL.pdf

Changes occur in the whole economy
Transport sector: ３ Revolution
EV + self driving + sharing => Economic benefits & CO2 reductions-> More generally ->Whole economy:
The entire science and technology, in particular,progress of General Purpose Technology(GPT :=ICT, AI, IOT, Chemistry, Bio-tech, etc )=> Economic benefits & CO2 reductions
Time span of technological progress is much shorter than that of global warming (Chance!)11

CO2 cut potential by ICT

１／４ of the global CO2 cut

http://smarter2030.gesi.org/downloads/Full_report.pdf* Reduction of Global CO2 emissions in chemistry sector by 1/5 may
be possible
https://www.nikkakyo.org/sites/default/files/ghghoukoushogaiyo.pdf

12Deep learning (Artificial Intelligence)

A. Perceptron(Old-fashion AI)

B. Big data on the web(Learning data)

C. Calculating machine for video
game (GPU) (Parallel computing)

Deep learning(Innovative AI)

a. Productivity& convenience(Manufacturing,medical care, etc.)

b. Global warming
countermeasures(Energy saving of office)c. Indirect globalwarming measures(Self driving, etc.)

As part of general progress of science and technology, climate technologies emerge.
13Wind power generation is…
Combination of general purpose technologies

http://www.nedo.go.jp/fuusha/kouzou.html

Large blade with reinforced plastic (CFRP)

Thanks to the progress of GPT, wind power scaled up.

14

How technological progress occurs?
• <Combination> New technology emerges bycombination of existing technologies
Technology “evolves”• <Accumulation> Once born, it never disappears
The source of long-term economic growth• <Acceleration> The technological progress accelerates
The chance to solve global warming
15

Technology 1

Technology 2

New technology emerges
by combination of existing
technologies

Technology 4

Like parents andtheir offspring…

Technology 3

time
16

“Evolution” of technology (complex systems)

The Technium

Technology 1
Technology 2
Technology 3
Technology 4
Technology 5
Technology 6
Technology 7
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…

(Kevin Kelly 2014; Brian Arthur 2011; Stuart Kauffman 2002)

time
17

How to accelerate the “evolution” of technology?

18

How to accelerate the “evolution” of technology?
Ecosystem evolves:• in a hot and humid climate=> Evolution accelerates, diversity increases(J. H. Brown, 2014)

Ecosystem of technology evolves:• in a good economy=> Business activity are active, innovation occur.
19

Lessons from past measures for global
warming mitigation• Energy Efficiency Standard: Promoted affordable energy saving• National R&D project(Sunshine, Moonlight): accelerated progress ofthermal power generation or heat-pump technology (Kimura, 2015)• FIT: Massive introduction of PV. Resulting in additional cost of $690
billion (Asano, 2017). PV cost remains high(Nomura and Amano, 2014). Unsolved Issueof grid integration. Japanese manufacturers lost the market(Nakata, 2016).
Failure of the Government
20

Doubly oblique approach
Solution for global
warming issues
Black Swan
Straight-line
reduction of CO2

present

First oblique approach

Affordable technologies
Innovation for global
warming mitigation measure

Failure of theGovernment
Mass introductionof Renewables

present

Second oblique approach
General purpose
technology
Innovation in overall
science technology
Positive spiral

Vigorous economy

21

Doubly oblique approach
Solution for global
warming issues
Black Swan
Straight-line
reduction of CO2

present

First oblique approach

Affordable technologies
Innovation for global
warming mitigation measure

Failure of theGovernment
Mass introductionof Renewables

presentGovernmentrole

Second oblique approach
General purpose
technology
Innovation in overall
science technology
Positive cycle

Vigorous economy

22Governmental role in the approach
1. Establish virtuous cycle of economic growth andinnovation. Do not undermine the cycle bymisplaced mitigation measures.
2. Invest in basic research & technology development
3. Reform regulatory systems timely to benefit fromand accelerate rapid progress of technology
4. Implement CO2 reduction measures as they
become affordable by the technological progress23