IINO HALL (Tokyo) / Web conference
March 9th, 2021

FY2020 ALPS International Symposium- Future strategy towards carbon neutral society -Research Institute of Innovative Technologyfor the Earth (RITE)ALPSIII Background and Objective2♦ As global warming is bound to have severe impacts on the whole planet,

there are high expectations for solutions to this issue. However, while global
warming affects various sectors in every country of the world, its impacts
are not uniform. Mitigation measures and associated costs that countries
can afford to take and pay may differ to very large extent. Therefore, model
development and model-based analysis and evaluation for global warming
countermeasures and policies considering the status of each country/region
and industry are needed in order to build truly effective climate policies.
♦ Within this project, we assess mitigation and adaptation measures, climate

finance and climate policy in a consistent and comprehensive manner,
taking into account the latest scientific knowledge on the subject, recent
trends in international negotiations, and cooperating with international
research organizations. Our goal is to contribute to the discussions ininternational negotiations, e.g., IPCC and COP, and to the development of
an international framework and of a national strategy for green growth,
namely, a virtuous cycle of environment and growth in the long-term strategy.
ALPS: ALternative Pathways toward Sustainable development and climate stabilization

ALPSIII Overview

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Risk management strategy for climate change responses••
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Understanding uncertainties, e.g., climate change science, damages and adaptations, countermeasures and mitigation costs,
socioeconomics and international framework.
Analysis on long-term target and the emission pathways for 2050, 2100 and further (global CO2 net zero emissions).
Evaluation of impacts of mitigation costs and international competitiveness regarding short-and-mid-term target up to 2030(NDCs) and evaluation of Border Carbon Adjustment.
Research on damages and adaptations and model development to be reflected on risk management strategy.
Evaluation of long-term low emission scenarios of NETs (BECCS, DACS, etc.) to be reflected on risk management strategy.
Evaluation of Solar Radiation Management (SRM).
Evaluation of innovation.
Synergies and trade-offs with SDGs.

Modeling and Analysis in systematic and quantitative manner• Improvement of DNE21+, DEARS, and GLaW and analysis using those models.
• Participation in international model comparison projects mainly in Europe & US and presentation of model analysis
results.

Evaluation of Green Growthin economic perspective• Evaluation of Green Growth (decoupling)
and data-based analysis.
• Estimation of CO2 emissions based onconsumption.
• Analysis on energy efficiency of Japanand major countries.
• Evaluation of equity of burden by income
class due to FIT or other policies.
• Issues regarding CO2 emission reduction
policies under electricity deregulation(learning from Europe).

Technological evaluationin cross-sectoral perspective• Integrated evaluation of social changes,
such as acceleration of sharing economy
induced by IoT & AI and reduction in
embodied goods by improving demandsupply efficiency.
• Evaluation of hydrogen use including
CCUS and whole system of oil refinery,
petrochemical, shale gas ad biorefinery.
• Evaluation of food system.
• Research on other technologies.

Evaluation of innovationand investment• Evaluation of the role ofgeneral-purpose
technologies (e.g., ICT,
material technology).
• Evaluation of innovationinducing policies.
• Research on the trend ofESG investment and green
finance analysis.

CO2 emission reduction targets
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EU declared more ambitious CO2 emission reduction goals for 2050 (EU and UK made it obligatory toachieve carbon neutrality by 2050). US Democratic President candidate (current President) Biden
showed a positive attitude for decarbonization indicating 100% clean electricity by 2035 and carbon
neutrality by 2050. China expressed intention for carbon neutrality.

EUUK Submitted long-term strategy
in Mar. 2020 aiming toachieve Climate Neutrality by2050.
 Stepped up CO2 emission
target to at least 55%
reduction in 2030 compared
to 1990. The draft is to besubmitted by Jun. 2021.
 Agreed on total 1.8 trillion
Euro of MFF and recovery
fund. 30% of the budget (37%of recovery fund) is
appropriated to climate
poicies.

 Climate Neutrality by 2050
legislated in Climate Change
Act (amended in Jun. 2019).
 Under preparation for long-term
strategy, to be submitted by2021.

China
 President Xi Jinping expressed
intention for carbon neutralityby 2060 in his speech via videoat the UN General Assembly inSep. 2020.
 Promotion of decarbonizing
technologies, e.g., EV and FCV,
will be focused with 450 billion
yuan budget as subsidy for newenergy cars.

US President Trump decided
withdrawal from the Paris
Agreement in Nov. 2019,
becoming effective as ofNov. 2020.
 The Democratic Partyprioritized climate change as
one of important agenda.
The president candidate
Biden announced policies
for decarbonizing electricity
by 2035, net zero emission
by 2050 and investment of 2
trillion dollars in 4 years forclean energy infrastructures.

Source) Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, METI (2020), edited by RITE

Japan’s declaration of Carbon Neutrality in 2050
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Prime Minister Suga declared the goal of realizing a carbon-neutral, decarbonized society by 2050 at his
first policy speech in October 26th, 2020.
For actualizing carbon neutrality, the actions are needed in the energy sector, which emits 85% of GHG(including non-CO2 such as methane and chlorofluorocarbon) and 93% of CO2.
The government will present the road map for carbon neutrality by 2050 mainly in energy related fieldand necessary policies in the next Energy Strategic Plan.
Policy Speech by PM on Oct. 26< Realizing a green society >We hereby declare that by 2050 Japan will aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net-zero, that is, torealize a carbon-neutral, decarbonized society.
…
We will establish a stable supply of energy by thoroughly conserving energy and introducing renewableenergies to the greatest possible extent, as well as by advancing our nuclear energy policy with thehighest priority on safety. We will also drastically change our longstanding policies on coal-fired powergeneration.

Press Conference by Minister Kajiyama on Oct. 26

Efforts in the energy field, which accounts for more than eighty percent of greenhouse gas
emissions, are particularly important for achieving carbon neutrality. In a carbon-neutral society, demandfor electricity is expected to increase, but in order to respond to this, we will make maximum use of what isviable, such as renewable energy and nuclear power, and also pursue new options, such as hydrogen.
Source) Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, METI (2020), edited by RITE

Comparison of global CO2 emissions in 1.5°C scenarios(IPCC SR15)

6Gross emission in 2050
at achieving net-zero

There are various emission reduction pathways and measures for achievingcarbon neutrality.

CO2 emission reduction cost
CO2 marginal abatement costs(standardized)

Source) D. van Vuuren et al., Nature Climate Change (2020)

CO2 marginal
abatement costs

1.5℃

2℃

Cost estimates vary widely among models under
stringent emissions reduction such as 1.5°C.

MACs for 1.5°C are estimated to beapprox. three times higher thanthose for 1.75°C or 2.0°C
Results of 240 scenarios by 5 IAMsSource) A. Gambhir et al., Energy Strategy Reviews (2019)7

Importance of quantitative and consistentscenario analysis

8♦ To achieve more stringent emission reductions, such as carbon neutrality,

measures in a cross-sectoral manner on both energy demand and supply
sides will be required, which will increase the importance of systematic
analysis based on models.
♦ Also, stringent emission reductions may require large costs. It is

important to present the effects of overall measures as well as emission
reduction costs etc., considering the uncertainties and the prospects oftechnologies, and to discuss opportunities and challenges thoroughly.
♦ Furthermore, it is important to systematically evaluate consistency in thewhole world, referring to the possibility of industrial transfer and carbon
leakage, in order to achieve a balance between environment and economy.
♦ Major themes covered in this symposium will be: how uncertainties overlong timeframe are considered and evaluated in the quantitative scenario
analyses in the context of the world proceeding to carbon neutrality; what
are the implications from the current analyses for achieving carbon
neutrality, and how they should be reflected to political decision-making
and leveraged in the communication with industry and public; and what
are the points to consider in interpreting and using scenarios, and so forth.

Model Analyses
Subject areaSpeaker

9Model, Scenario analysis

World

Keywan Riahi, IIASAMESSAGE (PEM) to analyze world
scenarios, mainly IPCC scenarios

World andJapan

Keigo Akimoto, RITEDNE21+ (PEM) to analyze world
and Japan scenarios

USLeon Clarke, University ofMaryland, U.S.

Mini-CAM (PEM) to analyze world
and US scenarios

EULeonidas Paroussos / Alessia de GEM-E3 (applied CGE model) toVita, E3-Modelinganalyze EU scenarios

UKVivian Scott / Richard Millar, The Quantitative analysis for UK policies
Climate Change Committee, U.K.

China

Kejun Jiang, Energy ResearchInstitute in China

IPAC (CGE model) to analyze
China scenarios
PEM: Partial Equilibrium Model

These institutes are abundant in dialogue with the governments.

Examples of carbon neutrality declarationin Japanese industry

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昨年度シンポジウムでご登壇

Other than above, the Japan Iron and Steel Federation and the Japan Gas Association declared carbon neutrality.

Today’s Program
10:00

Welcome Remarks

Yoichi Kaya, President, RITE

10:05

Introductory Remarks

Takashi Omote, Deputy Director-General for Environment, Energy and Innovation, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)

10:10

Introduction

Keigo Akimoto, Group Leader, Systems Analysis Group, RITE

10:15

LectureLeon Clarke, Research Professor, University of Maryland, Charting an Ambitious U.S. NDC

10:50

LectureKenji Yamaji, Senior Vice President/Director-General, RITE, Actions and Scenarios for the Carbon Neutral Society

11:25

LectureKejun Jiang, Senior Researcher, Energy Research Institute in China
Energy and Economy Transition in China under the Global 1.5C target

12:00

Lunch

13:20

Panel discussion

Industries’ activities and visions toward a Carbon Neutral society
Moderator: Kenji YAMAJI, Senior Vice President/Director-General, RITE
Panelist: -Junya Tawa, Executive Officer, Head of Planning Group, Corporate Strategy Department, JERA Co., Inc.
-Yukiyoshi Fukano, Senior General Manager, Environment Division, The Japan Gas Association-Shoji Kusumoto, Director, Environmental Management Department, Quality & Environment Division, Panasonic Corporation.

14:50

Coffee Break

15:00

LectureKeigo Akimoto, Group Leader, Systems Analysis Group, RITE, Recent trends for carbon neutrality and Scenario analysis in Japan

15:35

LectureKeywan Riahi, Director of the Energy program, IIASA, Rapid global transformations towards net zero CO2 emissions

16:10

LectureLeonidas Paroussos, Managing Director, Project Manager Economic analysis and modelling
Alessia de Vita, Project Manager energy analysis and policy
Modeling carbon neutral pathways for the EU

16:45

LectureScott Vivian, Senior Analyst, The Climate Change Committee, UK, Richard Millar, Senior Analyst, The Climate Change Committee, UKThe UK’s Sixth Carbon Budget – the pathway to Net Zero

17:20

Closing Remarks

Takashi Honjo, Senior Managing Director, RITE

The program is arranged according to time differences.

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