Long-term Strategy and Innovation forMitigation of Global Warming
Taishi Sugiyama
Senior Researcher, Socio-Economic Research Center

Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI)
Symposium on the Mitigation of Global Warming
Jan 26th, 20171

GHGs emissions increasing(IPCC 2014, AR5 WG3)2

Massive Cut Required(IPCC 2014, AR5 WG3)3

Top-down view

ClimatePolicy Requirement

Innovation

4

Bottom-up view

ClimateHow future evolves?

Innovation

5

Key Question
How can we get affordable“Innovative Climate Technologies”(PV, EV, etc…)
for massive GHG cut?

6Definitions
Innovation =Discovery, Invention +(Ohashi, H. 2014)
7Diffusion

Innovation plans & visions byGov. of Japan

8

National Energy & Environmental Strategy for Tech.
Innovation toward 2050 (NESTI 2050; Cabinet Office)) R&D program for innovative climate techs
 Key techs:
 Energy generation (PV, geothermal)
 Energy storage (battery) Energy efficiency (process, material) Carbon Capture & Use (CCU) ICT for energy systems (AI, big data, IOT) Materials/devices for energy systems(superconductor, power electronics, censor)
 System Integration Technologies
http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/summary/0004000/pdf/045_05_00.pdf

9Society 5.0 (Cabinet Office)
Vision of “smart society” for all sectors

https://www.ntt-review.jp/archive_html/201604/images/fa1_fig08.jpg
10New Industiral Structure Vision (METI)ICT Technology

Commonplatform
technology(AI, IoT,robotics
etc.)

Big Data

Goods and services

Financialtechnology

Transactions,financial markets

Robo-Advisor (assetmanagement), Credit by trading
data, etc.

Drug discovery
technology

Health andmedical data

Personalized medicines,
Personalized cosmetic andbeauty services etc.

Biological data

New drug discovery, new species
crop, advanced materials
manufacturing, bio-energy, etc.

Energy load device
control technology

Customer data

Energy demand response,
monitoring services, etc.

Production
control technology

Accidents andnear-miss data

Early detection of abnormality,enhancement of insurance andcredit rating etc.

Bioinformatics
Genome editing

http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/sankoushin/shin_sangyoukouzou/pdf/008_05_01.pdf

Vision for Prospective AI Technologies andApplications (NEDO)
Vision of AI
For three periods: -2020, 2020s, 2030Many applications: machine learning, imagecognition, robotics, self-driving, naturallanguage, …

ＮＥＤＯ ＨＰ http://www.nedo.go.jp/content/100782828.pdf
12Learning “climate innovation”
with an example: AI13

AI beats human at Go match

14

Deep learning of AI
by combination of existing techs
Kevin Kelly 2016 Inevitable

1. Percepton(old AI)

2. Big data on Web(to train AI)

3. GPU
Graphic processing for games

Deep Learning (AI)
http://ifs.nog.cc/fishwin.hp.infoseek.co.jp/hp/etc/soft_computing/mlp.html

http://matome.naver.jp/odai/2139450632745180701

15

http://tamagogohan.fool.jp/onlinegame/game/eternalcity2/eternalcity2.htm

New Industiral Structure Vision (METI)ICT Technology
Financialtechnology

Big Data

Goods and services

Transactions,financial markets

Robo-Advisor (assetmanagement), Credit by trading
data, etc.

Personalized medicines,
Health andPersonalized cosmetic andmedical
data“Innovative ClimateTechnology”
comes true by thebeauty services etc.
Drug discovery
technology

Commonplatform
technology(AI, IoT,robotics
etc.)

progress of non-climate technology
Biological data

New drug discovery, new species
crop, advanced materials
manufacturing, bio-energy, etc.

Energy load device
control technology

Customer data

Energy demand response,
monitoring services, etc.

Production
control technology

Accidents andnear-miss data

Early detection of abnormality,
enhancement of insurance andcredit rating etc.

Bioinformatics
Genome editing

新産業構造ビジョン http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/sankoushin/shin_sangyoukouzou/pdf/008_05_01.pdf (note addedd)

The Lesson from AI example
Climate tech= combination of non-climate techs
You can not cut emissions by AI
without developing AI first201617Different Time Span:
Chance to solve global warming
Progress of X (=ICTs..):rapid & accelerating… 2030? 2050?

Innovation time span << climate time span
(2020, 2030)(2050, 2100)

With new techs, more will be happy to cut moreemissions.
18Understanding innovation in general

19Characteristics of Innovation
New techs = combination of existing techs“new combination (Schumpeter)”“Ideas have a sex (Ridley)”Innovation:1) is cumulative2) accelerates3) occurs when “adjacent possible”
20Adjacent Possibility
An innovation emerges not out of thin air, butrequires accumulation of other innovations
Eg.1 Deep-learning enabled by three techs
Eg.2 Youtube enabled by broadband
A set of technologies makes it adjacentpossible for a certain new technology toemerge

21

Simultaneous Inventions, Multiple Discoveries
Inventions/discovery/innovation are inevitable once they
become adjacent possible
Thus they occur simultaneously and independently, often incompetition
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
…

Newton and Leibniz both discovered differential calculous
Three mathematician invented decimals
At least 6 persons invented thermometer
Several inventors for typewriter
Five “original” inventors of steamship(Kelly 2014); https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_discovery

22

Power of Market for Innovation
"I, Pencil“(Read 1958)
A pencil details the complexity of its own
creation, listing its components (cedar, graphite,…), and the numerous people involved.
Market has the power to combine fragmented
information to produce, invent, and innovate,in unpredictable manner.
Vigorous economic activities are the key toinnovation
23

Conclusion• Rapid development of general science & technology.
Opportunity to solve climate problem.
• Climate policy must be compatible with economic
growth to foster general/ climate tech development
for the climate sake• Role of the government for innovative climate techs- 1) keep macro-economy good, 2)invest in basic
research in general, 3) invest in dedicated climatetech programs.

201624