Toranomon Hills Forum, Tokyo (and Web)
March 8th, 2024

FY2023 ALPS International Symposium－ For achieving the carbon neutral and green
economy policies in the US, EU and Japan －Research Institute of Innovative Technology
for the Earth (RITE)

Backgrounds and Objectives of ALPS IV

2♦ As global warming is bound to have severe impacts on the whole planet,

there are high expectations for solutions to this issue. However, while global
warming affects various sectors in every country of the world, its impacts
are not uniform. Mitigation measures and associated costs that countries
can afford to take and pay may differ to very large extent. Therefore, model
development and model-based analysis and evaluation for global warming
countermeasures and policies considering the status of each country/region
and industry are needed in order to build truly effective climate policies.

♦ Within this project, we assess mitigation and adaptation measures, climate

finance and climate policy in a consistent and comprehensive manner,
taking into account the latest scientific knowledge on the subject, recent
trends in international negotiations, and cooperating with international
research organizations. Our goal is to contribute to the discussions ininternational negotiations, e.g., IPCC and COP, and to the development of
an international framework and of a national strategy for green growth,
namely, a virtuous cycle of environment and growth in the long-term strategy.
ALPS: ALternative Pathways toward Sustainable development and climate stabilization

Overview of the ALPS project3

Risk management strategy for climate change responses•••
•
•
•
•
•

Understanding uncertainties, e.g., climate change science, damages and adaptations, countermeasures and mitigation costs,
socioeconomics and international framework.
Analysis on long-term target and the emission pathways for 2050, 2100 and further (global CO2 net zero emissions).
Evaluation of impacts of mitigation costs and international competitiveness regarding short-and-mid-term target up to 2030
(NDCs) and evaluation of Border Carbon Adjustment.
Research on damages and adaptations and model development to be reflected on risk management strategy.
Evaluation of long-term low emission scenarios of NETs (BECCS, DACS, etc.) to be reflected on risk management strategy.
Evaluation of Solar Radiation Management (SRM).
Evaluation of innovation.
Synergies and trade-offs with SDGs.

Modeling and Analysis in systematic and quantitative manner• Improvement of DNE21+, DEARS, and GLaW and analysis using those models.
• Participation in international model comparison projects mainly in Europe & US and presentation of model analysis
results.

Evaluation of Green Growthin economic perspective• Evaluation of Green Growth (decoupling)
and data-based analysis.
• Estimation of CO2 emissions based on
consumption.
• Analysis on energy efficiency of Japanand major countries.
• Evaluation of equity of burden by income
class due to FIT or other policies.
• Issues regarding CO2 emission reduction
policies under electricity deregulation(learning from Europe).

Technological evaluationin cross-sectoral perspective• Integrated evaluation of social changes,
such as acceleration of sharing economy
induced by IoT & AI and reduction in
embodied goods by improving demandsupply efficiency.
• Evaluation of hydrogen use including
CCUS and whole system of oil refinery,
petrochemical, shale gas ad biorefinery.
• Evaluation of food system.
• Research on other technologies.

Evaluation of innovationand investment• Evaluation of the role ofgeneral-purposetechnologies (e.g., ICT,material technology).
• Evaluation of innovationinducing policies.
• Research on the trend ofESG investment and green
finance analysis.

CO2 emission trajectories in the world and major countries

Source) Global Carbon Project, 2023



GHG emissions in JapanThe coupling between the economy and CO2emissions continues on the global level.
When CO2 emissions decrease significantly,
economic conditions (GDP, income) worsen.
Manufacturing industries, with high CO2
intensity in particular, are being transferredfrom developed to developing countries.
Source) The Government of Japan (Ministry of Environment), 2023

4

The estimated baseline emissions in the IPCC AR4 (2007)
and AR5 (2014) v.s. the actual emissions in 20195AR4 (2007): baseline CO2 emissions

2019 CO2 emissions：45 GtCO2/yr

AR5 (2014): all pathways
including baseline emissions

 The actual emission in 2019 was nearly theupper range of the all of the baseline
emissions estimated by IAMs in the IPCC
AR5 and AR6, while large efforts foremissions reduction have been conducted.
 It can be afraid that CO2 intensive
industries had moved from developed
countries to developing countries morethan those that IAMs had estimated.

2019 CO2 emissions：45 GtCO2/yr

The trends of emissions reduction in Japan, US, and EUJapan

6

Even major developed countries
are not making steady progressin emissions reduction to achieve
the NDCs.

U.S.

EUSource) Ministry of Environment, Japan, 2023

COP28 Outcomes: Global Stock Take7



Recognizes the finding in the Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, based on global modelled pathways and assumptions,that global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to peak between 2020 and at the latest before
2025 in global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot... Also
recognizes that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C with no or limited overshoot requires deep, rapid andsustained reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by
2035 relative to the 2019 level…

… calls on Parties to contribute to the following global efforts, in a nationally determined manner,
taking into account the Paris Agreement and their different national circumstances, pathways andapproaches:(a)

Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by
2030;
Accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power;
Accelerating efforts globally towards net zero emission energy systems, utilizing zero- and low-carbon fuels well before or byaround mid-century;
Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in thiscritical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science;
Accelerating zero- and low-emission technologies, including, inter alia, renewables, nuclear, abatement and removal
technologies such as carbon capture and utilization and storage, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors, and low-carbonhydrogen production;
Accelerating and substantially reducing non-carbon-dioxide emissions globally, including in particular methane emissions by
2030;
Accelerating the reduction of emissions from road transport on a range of pathways, including through development ofinfrastructure and rapid deployment of zero- and low-emission vehicles;
Phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transitions, as soon as possible;

(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)

(f)
(g)
(h)

Recognizes that transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring
energy security;

Worldwide Government Support toward GX

8Inflation Reduction Act (Aug, 2022): approx. 50 trillion yen of government support

USEU-ETS (2005-), Green Deal Industrial Plan (Feb, 2023),
Net-Zero Industry Act / Critical Raw Materials Act (Mar, 2023), etc.:

Approx. 140 trillion yen of public & private investments

EUK-ETS (2015-), Investment / R&D tax reduction (sectors expanded in 2023):
More than 7 trillion yen of public & private investments

Korea

Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) [draft] (Aug, 2023):

Approx. 33 trillion yen of government support [unpublished]

GermanySource) The Government of Japan, 2023

Japan’s GX (Green Transformation) policy- Carbon Pricing and Investment Promotion Measures -9

GX Economy Transition Bonds: 20 trillion yenSource) The Government of Japan (METI), 2023

Some of the major topics of this symposium♦♦♦♦♦♦♦

10

The world had tried to increase the ambitions of 2030 emissions targets by the 2022
COP27; however, the increases are very limited. The GST decision of the 2023
COP28 expressed a desire to continue striving for the 1.5 °C target, but in reality,
the world is already approaching 1.5 °C rise, making it very difficult to achieve thegoals. Even major developed countries are not making steady progress inemissions reduction.
While most of the countries set ambitious long-term goals, the real global
emissions are still increasing. Our emissions reduction efforts have been
unsuccessful. Why?
There are growing concerns about the impact on international competitiveness andcarbon leakage due to the differences between more stringent targets of developed
countries and more moderate targets of developing countries.
The policies to reduce emissions by strengthening subsidies have been activelyimplemented, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the US and the Green
Deal Industrial Policy in Europe.
The Government of Japan formulated the “Basic Policy for the Realization of GX”
and “Sector-specific Investment Strategies.” What should be implemented toachieve them? How to cooperate with the US and Europe by learning from them?
The transition toward CN is important for near-term real emissions reduction, andwhat should governments and private companies implement?
Are any changes in climate response measures required under divided worlds?

Today’s Symposium Program

11

10:00

WelcomeRemarks

Kenji Yamaji, President, RITE

10:05

Introductory
Remarks

Izuru Kobayashi, Deputy Director-General for Environment, Energy and Innovation, Ministry of Economy, Trade andIndustry (METI)

10:15

Introduction

Keigo Akimoto, Group Leader, Systems Analysis Group, RITE

10:30

PanelDiscussions“Climate and Energy policies including US IRA, GX Policies in Japan, and EU green deals and CBAM”
Moderator: Dr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar,
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Panelist : Dr. Robert Stavins, A.J. Meyer Professor of Energy & Economic Development, Harvard University
Dr. David Victor, Professor, UC San Diego
Dr. Massimo Tavoni, Director, European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE)
Dr. Jun Arima, Project Professor, Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo

12:20

Lunch break

13:20

LectureMr. Takahiro Ueno, Senior Researcher, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry“Next NDCs for the U.S. and China”

14:40

LectureDr. Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar, IIASA“EU policies to be the first carbon-neutral continent in the transforming world”

15:00

LectureDr. Stéphanie Bouckaert, Head of Demand Sectors Unit, World Energy Outlook, IEA“Energy security in clean energy transitions: Insights from the World Energy Outlook 2023”

15:50

LectureKeigo Akimoto, Group Leader, Systems Analysis Group, RITE
“Perspectives of Climate Change Response Measures with Understanding the Gaps between the Paris Long-term
Gaals and the Real World”

16:40

Closing Remarks Takashi Honjo, Senior Managing Director, RITE