CCSテクニカルワークショップ2021－CCSの社会実装に向けたCO2地中貯留技術の実用化－
2021年1月27日

CCS for Business
CCSの社会実装- Partnership by Public, Business, and Finance ～産業、政府、金融の協力～

Mitsui & Co. Global Strategic Studies Institute / 三井物産戦略研究所
Senior Fellow / シニア研究フェロー
Takashi Hongo / 本郷 尚

2℃ target and Negative emission
 More than 120 countries commit Net Zero Emission. Overshooting scenario is considered as analternative scenario for achieving 2 degree target due to the “Hard to avoid emission” anduncertainty of technology innovation. / 120か国以上がネットゼロ排出を宣言。 他方でHard to
Avoid排出（避けがたい排出）からオーバーシューテイングシナリオも俎上に。
Negative emission:：Biomass CCS, Direct Air Capture

Hard to avoid(避けられない排出）
Alternative Scenario

Source IEA WEO2019

Negativeemission

2

Chemical Industry - a case of Hard to Avoid emission industry
化学産業 – Hard to Avoid排出の例

Net Zero emission for
Chemical Industry

 Net zero emission istechnically possible, but hugeamount of electricity isneeded for net zero emission/ ネットゼロは可能だが膨大な電力が必要
 For net zero emission,Germany chemical needs
seven times more electricity
than Germany‘s current total
demand / ドイツ化学産業でゼロエミを行えばドイツ全電力需要の7倍の電力が必
要Source The VCI industry association3

Role and limitation of Bioenergy/バイオエネルギーの量的制約

Bioenergy plays important role in achieving the 2 degree target / バイオエネルギーは2度目標で重要な役割
Barriers / 課題;
Bioenergy is competitive with oil base when carbon price is $150/tCO2.（IEA ETP2020) / 価格制約
Limitation of supply because: Need to double the current biomass supply./ 量的制約

IEA

IRENA

4

CCS is indispensable option/欠かせないオプション
 CCS is certainly an essential option for achieving the net zero goal and market with big potential.
However, only a few companies have made serious investments in CCS, and no large influx ofinvestment funds has been observed.
 CCSは不可欠な選択肢であり、大きな潜在市場。しかし投資は限定的であり、投資資金流入もない。

Barriers for CCS investment

Issuesfacts

Counter measures

Economics

 Limited or zero income fromCO2 containment / 貯留自体では収入を生まない Carbon pricing(regulation) /規制
 Emission trading(incentives)/インセンテイブ
 Infrastructure by public(cost reduction)/インフラ整備

Legalframework liability for long-term safetycontainment / 長期の安定貯留の責任

 Regulatory development using ISO and international bestpractice/ISOやベストプラクテイスを活用した法整備 Mechanism to undertake long-term monitoring of storage
by government/政府による長期安定貯留責任に引き受けTechnology

 Uncertainty of long term
containment / 長期貯留
 Innovation for cost down / コスト削減のイノベーション Continuation of the demonstration project / 長期の実証事業
 R&D investment in capture technologies. Diversified
investment in various technologies/ 回収技術のR&D。多様な技術への分散投資

Reputation risk
and skepticism

 The most difficult. both scienceand subjectivity / 最も困難。科学と主観の両面で課題

 Safe guards system and accumulation of projects / 安全基
準整備と実績の積み重ね
 Public relations and communications / 広報

Economics

Carbon Pricing in the world
 Carbon Pricing (Emission trading and carbon tax) is adopted in many countries. It isexpected to be increased and its rage depends on the carbon policy.
 カーボンプライスは多くの国で導入。カーボンプライスは上昇するが、政策次第。
Carbon Price
1401201008060
40
2002025

2040

STEPS EUSDS Developing countries
SDS Adavanced countries

Source World Bank, State and Trend of Carbon Market 20207

Net Zero Emission by corporate and role of offset
 Many companies, including energy industry, declare Net Zero Emissions. CCS contributes to thereduction of LCA emissions or the creation of offset credits.
 多く企業がネットゼロを宣言。CCSはLCA排出削減、クレジット創出に貢献
Hierarchy Approach
Target setting / 目標設定

Specification for the demonstration of carbon neutrality（炭素中立の宣言）

Reduction of energy consumption / 消費削減
 Improvement of energy efficiency/ 効率改善
 Reduction of energy demand (e.g. circular economy) / 需要削減
Decarbonizing of fuel/energy / エネルギーの脱炭素化
 Fuel switch Renewable, zero emission fuel
 Nuclear Fossil fuel + CCS
Offset / オフセット

Source BSI( British Standards Institution）

8

Net Zero Declaration/企業のネットゼロへの取り組み
 Voluntary action by industry is increasing after Paris Agreement/パリ協定以降企業の自主的な取り組みは急増
 Energy and energy intensive industry declares Net Zero too/エネルギー産業・エネル
ギー多消費産業もネットゼロを宣言

日経産業新聞「Earth新潮流」から

日経産業新聞「Earth新潮流」から

9

Offset credits – as a potential of revenue source for CCS
 Offset credits can be an important source of income. Conditions; methodology and demand.
 オフセットクレジットは収入源になりうる。ただし、方法論と需要がカギ。

 Demand: compliance(regulation purpose) and voluntary offsets
 需要は規制目的かボランタリーオフセットか。

Voluntary offsets（ICROA Recommendation)Clean Development Mechanism
Climate Action Reserve
Gold Standard
Joint Implementation
Verra‟s Verified Carbon
StandardAmerican Carbon Registry
Emissions Reduction Fund (ERF)of the Australian Government

ICAO CORSIA（国際航空の制度）

 American Carbon Registry Architecture for REDD+ Transactions
 China GHG Voluntary Emission
Reduction Program Clean Development Mechanism(CDM) Climate Action Reserve (CAR) The Gold Standard (GS) Verified Carbon Standard (VCS)Lower carbon fuel – as an option of revenue
 Basket measures for Carbon Neutral (CORSIA); offset and low carbon fuel are allowed. Petro base
low carbon fuel (LCAF) is an option, in addition to bio fuel / 2020年以降の排出増加なし（炭素中立成長）。オフセットや低炭素燃料は選択肢(CORSIA) Emission decline by Covid-19 / Covid-19による排出量の減少

 Saudi’s proposal for LCAF. CCS is included/ CCSを含むサウジのLCAF提案

Source Workshop by Mitsui at COP25

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Feasibility of Carbon Neutral Jet Fuel
 LCAF for CORSIA is under consideration; calculation of reduction, sustainable criteria etc. /LCAFによる排出削減量の計算、持続可能性要件などを検討中.

Source Takashi Hongo, Carbon Pricing to Promote Green Energy Projects, Springer

 CO2 reduction –double counting(allocation for capture
at power sector andaviation) / CO2 削減量の計算 – 二重計上防止（発電事業と航空の分配）
 Tracking of LCAF at
supply chain / サプラ
イチェーンの中での追跡 Increase of oilproduction / 原油増
産効果

Economics – Sensitivity analysis of EOR
 CO2 EOR has crude oil revenue. Storage is an additional source of revenue when carbon price isadopted / CO2 EORには原油収入あり。Carbon Priceがあれば貯留が追加収入源。
 A key for economic is transportation infra / 輸送インフラは経済性のカギ

US EOR(pipeline infra is available)
Break even cost
 Oil price: $60/bl
 Capture cost: $80/tCO2
 Carbon price: $15/tCO2
Break even cost
 油価格: $60/bl
 回収コスト: $80/tCO2
 炭素価格Carbon price:$15/tCO2Source Takashi Hongo, Carbon
Pricing to Promote Green EnergyProjects, Springer

Risk Analysis for Investment/Finance Risk control table for investment and finance; political risk, commercial risk and technology risk /リスクコントロール表；政治リスク、商業リスク、技術リスク

 In general, CO2 EOR islower risk thangeological CCS / 全体としてCO2 EORが帯水層CCSに比べてリスクは低い Oil price risk; volatilityand long term demand /油価変動と長期的な需要 Technology risk; longterm safe containment /技術リスクでは長期の安全な貯留がリスク

Risk Analysis for Investment/Finance – cont’d

Depending on
regulation/現地規制次第
Source Takashi Hongo, Carbon Pricing to Promote Green Energy Projects, Springer

Legal framework

National regulation – ISO for CCS
 Serious risk is liability for post closure period / 最大のリスクはPost Closure Regulation as safety net is needed / 止まり木としての規制整備を期待
ISO 27914 (Geological CCS)
4 Management systems
5 Site screening, selection, and characterization
6 Risk management
7 Well infrastructure
8 CO2 storage site injection operation
9 Monitoring and verification
10 Site closure10.2 Criteria for site closure
10.3 Closure plan
10.4 Closure qualification process

ISO 27916 (CO2 EOR)
4 Documentation
5 EOR complex description, qualification andconstruction
6 Containment assurance and monitoring within theEOR complex
7 Well construction
8 Quantification
9 Record keeping and missing data
10 Project termination
10.2 Periodic assurance of containment
10.3 Termination plan
10.4 Requisites for termination
10.5 CO2-EOR project termination
10.6 Post termination
Assurance of safe, long-term
containment shall consider
fluid movement to ensure thatleakage out of the EOR complex
is unlikely. Some jurisdictions
might require post-termination
monitoring or follow up
activities.

Long term liability – transfer mechanism（長期のリスクの移転メカニズム）

 Hard to hold business risk for a long period of time (20, 50 years or more)/ 長期間（20,50年～）事業リスクを保有することは困難

TransferProject/Investor
Fix earnings by transferring longterm liability / 長期のモニタリン
グリスクを移転ですることで収益を確定させる

Payment

Government/SPC

Technology

Technology Innovation – bottleneck of CCS Technology
技術のボトルネックは回収技術

 Capture technology is under developed. Reduction room
is high / 回収技術は発展途上。コスト引き下げポテンシャル大 R&D support: “Concentration and selection” VS“diversification” / 集中と選択か、分散投資か？

under developed（未成熟）Technology Road Map of Innovation – long way to go
技術のイノベーションは長い道のり Innovation in lowering capture costs has a long way to go / 回収コスト引き下げのイノベー
ションは長い道のり

Road Map in Japan
2020 Yen 4000/tCO2
2030 Yen 1000-2000/tCO2
2050 Yen 1000/tCO2

 20-30 years is needed to realize
innovation and diffusion / イノベーションと普及には20-30年は必要
 Japanese budget is limited to up tp
5 years, which does not cover thetime needed for innovation. R&Dscientist have to find next job after
5 years program period. / 予算は5年まででinnovationに必要な期間をカバーできず。研究者も5年で次の職探し。
 Science and technology budget
system needs to be reconstructed
科学技術予算制度の見直しがRevenue from carbon pricing / カーボンプライスによる収入
 Innovation in lowering capture costs has a long way to go. Securing stable financial
resources is an important. / 回収コスト引き下げのイノベーションは長い道のり。
財源確保は重要な課題。

Billion EUROUse of Auction revenue by EU ETA

Source EU Auction Revenue Report 2017

 Carbon pricing is
considering in Japan /日本でもCarbon
Pricingの導入検討
Prime Minister Suga
instructed considering theadoption of Carbon Pricing
contributing for growthstrategy （Minister ofEconomy, Trade andindustry and Minister ofEnvironment on 21
December 20290) /菅総理から成長戦略に資するCarbon Pricingの検討の指示（2020年12月21日、経済産業大臣、環境大臣）
22

Japan Model for CCS

Japanese Model / 日本型モデル
 Developed in Japan, deployed overseas / 日本で開発、海外に展開
 Green Hydrogen VS Blue Hydrogen or Green Hydrogen and Green Hydrogen / ゼロエミ燃料
Green 対 Blue Infrastructure development by PPP and competition for R&D support for capture technologies / PPP
によるインフラ整備と回収技術の競争的R&D

Capture
回収Private
Private民間企業
Private
民間企業
民間企業
R&D Support*Target prices will be lowered
following technological progress.

Transportation
輸送CO2
Payment（target price*)

Sequestration
貯留CO2

BOT
BOT

Government entity
直轄事業

Revenue guarantee
Government
政府Government
expenditure