Disruptive technologies andsustainable lifestyles toward
SDGs:
net-zero emissions
Prosperity
Nebojsa Nakicenovic

Social Inclusion
Sustainability

Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology

ALPS International Symposium, Tokyo – 19 February 2019

Four Great Achievements since theBeginning of Industrial Revolution
 Life expectancy has doubled in a century
 One billion are obese while less go hungry More die by suicide than war and violence Everyone in the world has a mobile phone
Nakicenovic

2019 #2

Mobile Phones Charging

Source: Modi, 2011
Nakicenovic

2019 #3

Collective Responsibility in theAnthropocene

Nakicenovic

2019 #4

Global Fossil CO2 Emissions

Global fossil CO2 emissions have risen steadily over the last decades.
The peak in global emissions is not yet in sight.

Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary ; 2018 is a projection based on partial data.
Nakicenovic Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
2019

#5

Kaya Identity
The Kaya decomposition illustrates that relative decoupling of economic growth from CO2emissions is driven by improved energy intensity (Energy/GWP)

GWP: Gross World Product (economic activity)
Energy is Primary Energy from BP statistics using the substitution accounting method
Source: Jackson et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

The IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5°C”
The IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5°C” presented new scenarios:
1.5°C scenarios require halving emissions by ~2030, net-zero by ~2050, and negative thereafter

Net emissions include those from land-use change and bioenergy with CCS.
Source: Huppmann et al 2018; IAMC 1.5C Scenario Database; IPCC SR15; Global Carbon Budget 2018

Greenhouse gas emissions pathways● To limit warming to 1.5°C, CO2emissions fall by about 45% by2030 (from 2010 levels)

SDGs:Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability● To limit warming to 1.5°C,
CO2 emissions would need toreach ‘net zero’ around 2050
● Reducing non-CO2 emissions
would have direct andimmediate health benefits

1Nakicenovic

2019 #12

Nakicenovic

2019 #13

Multiple Benefits of Integrated Policies

Total Global Policy Costs (2010-2030)

1.2%

1.0%

0.8%

0.6%

0.4%

0.2%

0.0%
Only Energy Security

Nakicenovic

Only Air Pollution and Health

Only Climate Change

All Three Objectives

Source: McCollum et. al, 2012; IPCC, 20142019 #14

Nakicenovic

2019 #15

Interactions between SDG 7 & other SDGs

Nakicenovic

Source: McCollum et. al, 20182019 #16

TWI2050 Report (www.TWI2050.org)
Key Messages
Synthesis
1. Framing and Introduction
2. The Challenges Ahead
3. Sustainable Development
Pathways
4. Governing the Transformation
 >60 authors from ~20
organizations
 >150 contributors andparticipants
Nakicenovic

TWI2050 Writing Meeting
5-7 March 2018, IIASA2019 #17

TWI2050 Report (www.TWI2050.org)
Key Messages
Synthesis
1. Framing and Introduction
2. The Challenges Ahead
3. Sustainable Development
Pathways4. Governing the Transformation
 >60 authors from ~20
organizations
 >150 contributors andparticipants
Nakicenovic

TWI2050
TWI2050Writing
LaunchMeeting
HLPF
5-711
March2018, UNIIASA
July 2018,2019 #18

Some Key Messages
 Attaining the SDGs in a resilient and lasting way,requires vigorous action now, and a people andplanet focus beyond 2030!
 As everything is integrated in the connected world,
the grand transformation requires a holistic
perspective!
 Transformational change is needed but to succeed
we must take along winners and losers!
 The world is at crossroads as we are currently
experiencing signs of a counter-transformation!
 A central element of the sustainability transformation
is effective and inclusive governance!
 Think globally, act locally! Think long-term, act now!
Nakicenovic

2019 #19

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.org)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

Vision:Sustainable
FutureTransformation Diffusion

Target space 2050+ →One “backcasting” storyline andmany transformational pathways← Target space 2030

Legitimacy ofBAU eroding
2030
Nakicenovic

2050

Source: After WBGU, 20112019 #20

Six Major Transformations (TWI2050.org)
Digitalrevolution

Human capacity& demography

Artificial intelligence,
big data, biotech,nanotech, autonomous
systems

Education, health, ageing,labor markets, gender,inequalities

Smart cities
Decent housing,mobility,sustainableinfrastructure,pollution

SDGs:
Prosperity
Social Inclusion
Sustainability

Consumption& production

Resource use,
circular economy,
sufficiency, pollution

Food, biosphere& water

Decarbonization& energy

Sustainable intensification,
biodiversity, forests,
oceans, healthy diets,
nutrients

Energy access,efficiency,
electrification,
decent services

Nakicenovic

2019 #21Global Primary Energy
Zero Emissions by 2050
1200

1000

EJ800

Savings
Other renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass~50% REN by 2030

≈ 1.5 Co600

400Energy Efficiency and Behavior~50% Improvement by 2030

→ immediate Peak

Renewables
NuclearGas
Oil200

Coal

01850

Nakicenovic

Biomass

1900

1950

2000

2050

Source: Sterner et al. 2016 after WBGU, 2015 2019 #22

Possible Transformational Technologies

Nakicenovic

2019 #23

Hydraulic Electricity Storage

Nakicenovic

Source: Eduard Heindl

2019 #24

NET Power Breaks Ground on
Demonstration Plant for Oxyfuel,Nantural Gas ZEP, La Porte, Texas

Nakicenovic

2019 #25

Global Primary Energy
ALPS Low Energy Demand (LED)
1200

1000

EJ

800

~20% renewables by 2030

≈ 1.5 Co600

400Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,and behavior)~55% improvement by 2030

Savings
Other Ren.
NuclearGas
Oil
CoalBiomass→ “Adjusted” Peak

Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil

200

Coal01850

Nakicenovic

Biomass

1900

1950

2000

Source: After Grubler et al, 2018

2050

2019 #26

Impact of IC Technology Convergence

Nakicenovic

Source: Grubler et al., 20182019 #27

Impact of Digital Technology

Source: httpshappykids.huuncategorizeddigitalization-the-most-powerful-forceNakicenovic in-the-21st-century-digital-tech-1080x675
2019 #28

Technology Diffusion Compareddigital revolution

Nakicenovic

Source: Nokia Bell Labs, 20172019 #29

Social and Technological Learning

Nakicenovic

Source: Intel2019 #30

“Autonomous” Feature of Tesla S

Nakicenovic

2019 #31

Disruptive Change

Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles
zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe.
Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans
Ende der Welt.

Nakicenovic

Source: Campanale, Carobntracker

2019 #32

Pipistrel electric aircarft

Nakicenovic

Source: Ivo Boscarol2019 #33

Urban mobility FRA airport

Nakicenovic

2019 #34

Progress Eagle

Nakicenovic

Source: Oscar Vin͂als

2019 #35

ありがとうnaki@iiasa.ac.at