Policy trends of Japan and the world, and Scenarios oflong-range strategy for deep CO2 emission reduction

Kenji YAMAJI, Director-General
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth(RITE)ALPS International Symposium (FY 2018)
Feb.19, 2019
@Toranomon Hills Forum, Tokyo1

Policy Trends of Japan and the World
Paris Agreement (framework after 2020 covering all major countries)：Adopt(2015) → Effective(2016) → Implementation scheme(2018；exc. market mkm)

IPCC 1.5℃ Special Report (2018)：net zero emission required in 2050
5th Strategic Energy plan of Japan decided in July, 2018：
Target for 2030 maintained、Vision for 2050 as an ambitious goal
Schedule for Future ：June 2019：G20 in Japan、long-term low emission develop. strategy？
Nov. 2019(COP25)：rule for market mechanism
Nov. 2020(COP26)：limit for submission of NDC for 2030
Nov. 2020：election of US President、US exit?、（G7 in the USA）
Nov. 2022：technical review for global stocktake
Dec. 2023：high level event for global stocktake
End of 2024：1st biennial report of Paris Agreement due
2025：submission of second NDC
2

Targets for 2030 and Goal for 2050

3

The energy mix for 2030 is kept as that of the previous plan
4

<Policy target for 3E+S>

EnergySecurity
Approx. 25%, morethan 20% of the prequake

Most essential

SafetysafetyPrimary energy supply

Fossil fuels:82%

Fossil fuels:89%

Fossil fuels:76%

LNG 19%
Oil 40%Coal 23%

LNG 25%
Oil 39%Coal 25%

LNG 18%
Oil 33%
Coal 25%

Nuclear 11%
RE 7%

Nuclear 1%
RE 10%

Nuclear 11~10%
RE 10~11%

Economic
Efficiency
Composition of power sources

Smaller cost thancurrent
Fossil fuelEnvironment

Fossil fuels:64%

Fossil fuels:83%

Fossil fuels:56%LNG 28%
Oil 9%
Coal 27%

LNG 40%
Oil 9%
Coal 33%

LNG 27%
Oil 3%
Coal 26%

Nuclear 22~20%

GHG reduction target
comparable to Europeor U.S.

Non-fossil

Provisional translation of Government publication

Nuclear 26%
RE 10%

Nuclear 2%
RE 15%

Geothermal
1.0~1.1%
Biomass
3.7~4.6%
Wind 1.7%
PV 7.0%Hydro
8.8~9.2%

RE 22~24%

4

Direction of energy trend in Japan towards 2050
- Key points of Recommendations by the Round Table for Studying Energy Situations - 5

 Possibility → Ambitious scenario: Energy transitions toward decarbonization
 Uncertainty → Multiple track scenario: Seeking possibility in all choices
 Unclarity → Scientific review mechanism: Flexible determination of priority■ Energy transitions under complex uncertain environments→ Sophistication of 3E+S Safety at the top priority → Enhancement of safety through innovations by technologies
and governance reforms
 Energy Security: Resource self-sufficiency rates → Improvement of technology selfsufficiency rates + Securement of diversity of energy options
 Environmental friendliness → Taking on decarbonization
 Economy: Curbing public burdens → Enhancement of domestic industrial competitiveness
5Source) Government data

The First Pillar
Ambitious and multiple-track scenario→Renewables to be major power sources,
meanwhile decreasing the dependency on
nuclear energy→All options in pursuit of possibilities
To 2030 -> Electricity ZE44 & Energy efficiency 30

 Single target = Energy mix in 2030
→ Zero emission electricity 44%→ Increase in energy efficiency by 30%

 From fulfillment and acceleration towards 2030
to advanced development by 2050
→ Decrease CO2 by 26% with the same cost, then by80%

 Technology-based 3E+S

→ Increased security withtechnology
Energy security → Securing energy with technology
Environment→ Decarbonization with technology
Economic Efficiency→ Strengthening industrial
competitiveness with technology
SafetyTo 2050 -> ZE80 & Negative emissions

 Multiple scenarios = determinedby scientific review
Electricity system-> Renewables, battery storage-> Renewables, hydrogenation ormethanation-> fossil fuel, CCS, hydrogenation ormethanation-> International renewables,hydrogenation or methanation-> Next gen. nuclear (small reactorsetc.)
Thermal system-> Electrification-> Hydrogenation or methanation-> Next gen. industrial thermal system
Transportation system-> Electrification-> Hydrogenation-> Autonomous
Distributed energy system-> Adjacent to demand, small battery
6storage and IoT
Provisional translation of Government publication

The Second Pillar
Introduction of Scientific Review Mechanism→Priority of energy option will be determined considering leading-edge
technologies and situations

Shift from verification of electricity generation to that of system cost
<Generation costs>¥22¥10~Nuclear*Cost data based on Powergeneration cost verification WG*Costs of thermal based on model
plant in 2014
*Target costs for RE in 2030

<System costs>
¥24

~¥200
~¥130

¥14

¥12

¥8~9CoalLNG

Thermal¥70¥7WindPV(onshore)(utility)
Renewables

Benchmark cost(¥10 for baseload)

¥30

¥10~

Increased safety, Zero emission withhydrogenation oreconomy andmethanation
flexibility

Thermal-independentand zero emission withbattery storage andhydrogen

Nuclear

Fossil fuel Fossil fuelfor hydro- for methanation
genation

RE tobattery
storageRE tohydrogenRenewables are calculated with a cost of ¥7/kWh2030=single target (energy mix) -> must be fulfilled
Existing technologies -> securing safety, maintaining
cost, increasing self sufficiency, decreasing emission by26%

2050=multiple scenarios -> with all strength, immediate startInnovative technologies -> innovating safety, increasing
competitiveness, energy security, decreasing emission by 80%

Scientific review for energy transition by every 2 to 3 years
Determine priority issues in light of latest technological and geopolitical situation
7
Provisional translation of Government publication

Third-pillar: All-out efforts

Actions aligned with world, finance, and industry

Review cycle
Review➡Project, international cooperation, financial dialogue,
policies➡Structural transformation
EnergyBig data

Scientific review
Mechanism

Decision on priority ofenergy choices

Project on energy transformation/de-carbonization➡

industry-government-academia
collaboration(Unified understanding of technological maturity by examining systems costs)
Renewable energy
fossilNext-generation Industrial
Decentralization
Storage of electricity Hydrogen Nuclear power
Process

International alliance for energy transformation/de-carbonization➡Cooperation among resource-rich countries, emerging countries and developedcountries
Energy finance dialogue➡ Cooperation with financial sectors

Energy transformation/de-carbonization policies
Strengthening
energy industries

Reorganizing
energy infrastructure

Structural reforms inenergy system

8Structure of Climate Change Response
Human Needs
Human Activities

Society 5.0

Change of Society and Behavior

Energy・Material・Information／Human Activities

Energy Efficiency ↑Material Efficiency ↑ICT replace Ene./Mat.

CO2 Emission／Energy・Material・Information

Low Carbon Energy
Low Carbon Material＋low carbon information

CO2 Concentration／CO2 Emission
Emission of Non CO2 GHG

Temp. Rise／GHG Concentration

Mitigation（ CO2 Reduction ）CCS, CCU
Afforestation、DAC
Climate Control（SRM etc.）

Climate Engineering（Geoengineering）

Impact of Climate Change／Temp. Rise
Adaptation to Climate Impact

Adaptation

Residual Damage by Climate Change
9Source：Kenji Yamaji, 2006：「Theory of 3E Systems Analysis」, Iwanami-Shoten (in Japanese) + modifications by KY

Global CO2 emission profiles toward 2300
for the 2 °C targets

1050
Business as Usual (BaU)(the middle socioeconomic scenario)

CO2 emissionis [GtCO2/yr]

40

Submitted NDCs

30+2℃ stabilization under climate
sensitivity of 2.5℃ (Noexceedance of 580 ppm)

20+2℃ stabilization under climate
sensitivity of 3.0℃ (Noexceedance of 500 ppm)
450 ppm CO2eq stabilization

100-10
2010

2050
2060

2100
2110

2300
2160

2210

2260

Submitted NDCs
Estimated by RITE using
MAGICC and DNE21+- The global CO2 emissions should be nearly zero for a long period of time in the far future
in any pathway to achieve temperature stabilization.
- On the other hand, the allowable global CO2 emissions toward the middle of this century
have a wide range according to the uncertainties in climate sensitivity (or achievingprobability) even when the temperature target level is determined as a 2 °C. We should use
10this flexibility to develop several kinds of innovative technologies and societies.

The relationship between baseline emissions due to different
socioeconomic scenarios and those for 2 °C goals

11

SSP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(used for IPCC scenario analyses etc.)
Baseline emission
range of SSPs

2 °C goal(>66% & >50%)- There are large uncertainties in baseline emissions due to uncertainties insocioeconomic conditions. The uncertainty ranges are much larger than those fordifferent target levels of temperature (e.g., ±0.5 °C, that is, 1.5 to 2.5 °C target).
- It is significant to achieve low emissions in baseline, that is, technologies with11 net
negative costs achieving such low emissions.

Primary energy supply andfinal energy consumption (World, 2050)
25000
Solar thermal

12Primary energy supply

Solar PV
Wind power
Nuclear power
Hydro + Geothermal
15000

BECCS

Biomass w/ CCS
Biomass w/o CCS
10000

Gas w/ CCSElectrification todecarbonize electricity

Gas w/o CCS
Oil w/ CCS

5000

Oil w/o CCS
Coal w/ CCS
02010

Baseline

World total：▲40%World total：▲70%

Coal w/o CCS

Japan: ▲65%

20000

Final Energy Consumption
Electricity

18000
Heat：CGS

16000

For 70% GHG mitigation:
・considerable BECCS is required
・significant reduction on oil and gas
・electrification ratio should be
increased for cost-effective measures

Final energy consumption [Mtoe/yr]

Primary energy supply [Mtoe/yr]

20000

14000

Gaseous fuel：Hydrogen

12000
Gaseous fuel：Gas
10000
Liquid fuel：Bio fuel

8000
6000

Liquid fuel：Oil
4000
Solid fuel：Biomass
2000

120

Solid fuel：Coal2010

Baseline

World total：▲40%

World total：▲70%

Generated electricity (World, 2050)

13

Hydrogen (Co-firing)

60000

Hydrogen(Single-fuel firing)
Solar thermal
50000

Solar PVElectricity generation [TWh/yr]

Wind power
Nuclear power
40000

Hydro + Geothermal
Biomass (Co-firing)
w/ CCS
Biomass (Single-fuel firing)
w/ CCS
Biomass (Co-firing)
w/o CCS
Biomass (Single-fuel firing)
w/o CCS
Gas w/ CCS

30000

20000

Gas CGSGas w/o CCS
10000

Oil w/ CCS
Oil w/o CCS
Coal w/ CCS

02010

Baseline

World total：▲40%

World total：▲70%Japan : ▲65%

Coal w/o CCS*Biomass (co-firing) assumed co-firing with coal fired power. The generated electricity is proportionally divided into coal and biomass by the ratio of input heat
quantity, biomass content is shown in the figure.
*Hydrogen (co-firing) assumed co-firing with gas fired power. The generated electricity proportionally divided into gas and hydrogen by the ratio of input heat
quantity, and hydrogen content is shown in the figure. Gas content is included in gas w/o CCS.

A considerable amount of CCS introduction even at 40% reduction.
BECCS should be introduced instead of Coal with CCS at 70% reduction.
13A considerable amount of renewables, especially PV, and hydrogen is required at 70% reduction.

Changes in per capita CO2 emissions in major countries
14

CO2 emissions in Japan rise after the earthquake.
In Germany, CO2 reductions are sluggish, while UK and France steadily reduce.
China’s CO2 emissions has increased to the comparable level of developed countries,
while the US tends to decline, the level is still high.

2000

*2009

2015

USA

20.0t

-3.3

16.7t

Japan

9.0t

-0.7

8.3t

Germany10.0t

-1.1

8.9t

China

2.5t

UK

8.8t

-1.4

7.4t

-1.4

6.0t

France

6.0t

-0.8

5.2t

-0.8

4.4t

-3.3

9.0t
±08.9t6.6t

5.3t

Adjusted by coal-fired power to increase renewables ⇒15.5t

No CO2 reduction

14

Utilization of nuclear power
Use nuclear power in the future[99]
USA
France [58]China [37]
Russia [35]
[22]
India
Canada [19]Ukraine [15][15]UK
Sweden [8][ ] Operating radix

[6]
Czech
[5]
Pakistan[4]
Finland[4]
Hungary[3]Argentina
South Africa [2][2]Brazil[2]
Bulgaria[2]
MexicoNetherlands [1]Using nuclear power, currently

TurkeyBelarus
Chile
Egypt
Indonesia
IsraelJordanKazakhstan
Malaysia
PolandSaudi Arabia
Thai
Bangladesh
UAE

Many countries have notexpressed their stances
Do not use nuclear power, currently

Cabinet decision(2017) /[24] Prospective abolition(2080-)
Korea*1[8] Legislation(2011) /Abolition(2022)
Germany[7] Legislation(2003) /Abolition(2025)
Belgium[6] Legislation(2017) /Abolition(2025)
TaiwanSwitzerland*2 [5] Legislation(2017) / -)Italy
Cabinet decision(1988) /Abolition(1990)
Legislation(1979)
Austria
Australia Legislation(1998)[ ] Operating radix Decision to abolish / Scheduled abolish*1: Construction of 5 units is continuing*2: No restriction on the operating period

Do not use nuclear power in the future
Source：Energy situation roundtable discussion, April 10th 2018,15

Impacts of “Super Smart Society” (Society 5.0)
Society 5.0 is characterized by the sophisticated integration of cyberspace withphysical space (“the real world”)
Society 5.0 is capable of providing the necessary goods and services to the people
who need them at the required time and in just the right amount; a society that isable to respond precisely to a wide variety of social needs; a society in which all
kinds of people can readily obtain high‐quality services, overcome differences ofage, gender, region, and language, and live vigorous and comfortable lives.
Beyond energy saving, Society 5.0 promotes
sharing economy to shift the industry frommanufacturing to service providers leading
to a ultimate circular society.

Information
replaces Material1) car/ride share → car ↓ → car productions ↓ → material needs ↓ → energy/CO2 ↓2) smart maintenance → component replace↓ → material needs ↓ → energy/CO2 ↓3) IC tag for all component → recycling rate ↑ → material needs ↓ → energy/CO2 ↓16

⇒ Sharing Economy, Circular Economy, …

Source: METI, “Connected Industries” Tokyo Initiative, October 201717

There are a lot of things in every sector we can reduce.
 Operating rate of automobiles: 4%
 Vacant houses: 13%
 More than half of the people have leftover medicine.
 One third of foods are wasted.
 Twenty-two pieces of unused clothing in women’s closet
 40% of rooms in hotel is unoccupied.
(Lacy and Rutqvist (2015))(Sources): Sugiyama (2017), SCJ (Science Council of Japan) symposium, Sept. 27, 201718

There are a lot of things in every sector we can reduce.
• Our society does not consume energy
as the purpose, but consume energies
associated with products and services
which increase our welfare.
• The end-use products and services
which increase our welfare will usuallydiffuse rapidly, and energy use and CO2
associated with those may decrease
rapidly.

Source: http://gendai.ismedia.jp/articles/-/50859

Social changes (by thedevelopment of AI, IoT, Bigdata) in cooperation withservices (e.g. MaaS) throughfully autonomous cars, carsharing and IoT(Source: IIASA)

Telephone, Camera, Sound devices,TV, PC, Lighting…
(Source: Finland)19

Image of standard scenario by models and realworld scenarios for deep cuts
Model world:
Ordinary technology progress

Carbonprice

Carbon price/
Marginal abatement cost

Realistic world requirement:
Innovations stimulated & implementedCarbon
priceBaseline scenario

Implicit or explicit carbon price/Marginal abatement cost

Baseline
scenario
CO2emission

CO2emission
Intervention scenario

20Intervention scenario

By technology
and social
innovations

Explicit high carbon prices of such as over 100$/tCO2 in real price are unlikely in a realworld. Technology and social innovations resulting in low (implicit or explicit) carbon
prices (including coordination of secondary energy prices) are key for deep emission20
cuts
to be implemented.

Pathways to Net Zero Emission
Super Smart Society (Society 5.0)
Integration of Energy and ICT

IoT, AI, Big Data, Blockchain, Smart Sensor, …

Social system reform: material producer → service provider, etc.
Mobilize demand side
→ utilization rate up, recycle up, longer life, etc.
DR, V2G, VPP, etc.
Reduced material demands, Behavior change, etc.

Revolutionary Energy Saving throughElectrification and Digitalization of Energy(EV, PHEV, FCV, Heat Pump, …..)
EnergyStorage
Battery, PtX…

Clean and Efficient Energy Carrier(Electricity, Hydrogen etc.)

Carbon Free Power Source:
Renewables, Nuclear,
Fossil Fuel with CCS
Carbon Free Fuel:
Biomass, Fossil Fuelwith CCS, etc.

Carbon Free Heat Source:
Power sector will be requested to be negative
Solar Heat, Geothermal, etc.
emission in Global Net Zero Emission Scenarios:
BECCS(Bioenergy+CCS) should be comparativelySDGs
evaluated with other options such as afforestation,
CO2 use, geoengineering (DAC, (SRM) …), etc.
Keep Options as Many as Possible! 21+ Adaptation

ご清聴ありがとうございました
Thanks for your attention

公益財団法人 地球環境産業技術研究機構(RITE)
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth22