“Carbon Law”
and Sustainable
Development Goals
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology

ALPS International Symposium, Tokyo – 9 February 2018

“Carbon Law”
and Sustainable ALPS LED DL
Development Goals
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology

ALPS International Symposium, Tokyo – 9 February 2018

“Carbon Law”
and Sustainable
Development Goals
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology

ALPS International Symposium, Tokyo – 9 February 2018

Emissions from fossil fuel use and industry
Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2016, 62% over 1990
Projection for 2017: 36.8 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.0% higher than 2016

Paris

Uncertainty is ±5% for
one standard deviation(IPCC “likely” range)

Kyoto

Estimates for 2015 and 2016 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016.
Nakicenovic Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
2018

#4

Nakicenovic

2018 #5Global Temperature Anomaly
1880 to 2015
El Niño
Broecker, 1975: “Present cooling
trend will within a decade give
way to pronounced warming
induced by CO2”

ParisKyoto
Pinatubo

Nakicenovic

Source: NASA/JPL-Caltech, 20162018 #6

Collective Responsibility in the
Anthropocene

Nakicenovic

2018 #7

Bildquelle: https://www.wmo.int/media/

The Paris Agreement

Limiting global
warming to“well below”

Achieving net-zero

Regular review andGHG emissions by mid of improvement of nationallythe 21st century

determined contributions

billion a year in
support by 2020
through 2025

2 degrees celsius

Nakicenovic

Mobilizing $100

Source: Schellnhuber, 20162018 #8

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

“Carbon Law”

Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017

Net-negative CO2 Emissions

Max. temperature change in 21th century
Net carbon emission (in year 2100)

net negative carbon emissions

NO Scenarios with net negative Emissions above ~ 2.8 degree

2.5

2.0

1.5

Max. temperature change [K]3.0

NO Scenarios without net negative Emissions below ~ 1.5 degree60

Nakicenovic

40
200-20-40
Net carbon emissions in 2100 [Gt CO2]

-60

1.0

2018 #14

STI Transformational Change
Dynamic, Cumulative, Systemic and Uncertain
 Incremental – gradual (continuous) andcumulative improvements Abrupt – radical, discontinuous anddisruptive as “gales of creativedestruction”
 Add as many mail-coaches as you
please, you will never get a railroad by sodoing. [Schumpeter, 1935/1951, 136]
Nakicenovic

2018 #15

Nakicenovic

2018 #16

Supply Technologies Cost Trends

230GW @ $0.8/Wp

Nakicenovic

Source: Grubler et al, 20122018 #17

Nakicenovic

2018 #18

“Learning” Through Scale

Economies of scale, US wind turbines
Nakicenovic

Source: Grubler et al. ALPS-20122018 #19

Possible Transformational Technologies

Nakicenovic

2018 #20

Deep Ocean Storage Sphere@700m, Ø30m ≈ 20MWhNakicenovic

Source: Eduard Heindl

2018 #21

Hydraulic Electricity Storage

Nakicenovic

Source: Eduard Heindl

2018 #22

NET Power Breaks Ground on
Demonstration Plant for Oxyfuel,Nantural Gas ZEP, La Porte, Texas

Nakicenovic

2018 #23

Carbon Dioxide Storage
Sleipner since 1996

Nakicenovic

2018 #24

2030 GEA Goals and Targets● Universal Access to Modern Energy● Double Energy Efficiency Improvement● Double Renewable Share in Final Energy
Aspirational & Ambitious but Achievable
Nakicenovic

UN General Assembly resolution 65/151

2018 #25

Global Primary Energy
A Transformational Pathway
1200

1000

EJ

800

Savings
Other renewables
NuclearGas
Oil
CoalBiomass

Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,and behavior)~40% improvement by 2030
~30% renewables by 2030

600
Renewables
Nuclear400

Nat-gas-CCS
Coal-CCS

200

Bio-CCS – negative CO2Gas
Oil
Coal01850

Nakicenovic

Biomass

1900

1950

Source: Riahi et al, 2012

2000

2050

2018 #26

Global Primary Energy
Zero Emissions by 2050
1200

1000

EJ

800

Savings
Other renewables
NuclearGas
Oil
CoalBiomass~50% REN by 2030

≈ 1.5 Co600

400Energy Efficiency and Behavior~50% Improvement by 2030

→ immediate Peak

Renewables
NuclearGas
Oil200

Coal01850

Nakicenovic

Biomass

1900

1950

2000

2050

Source: Sterner et al. 2016 after WBGU, 2015 2018 #27

Global Primary Energy
ALPS Low Energy Demand (LED)
1200

1000

EJ

800

~20% renewables by 2030

≈ 1.5 Co600

400Energy savings (efficiency, conservation,and behavior)~55% improvement by 2030

Savings
Other Ren.
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
Biomass→ “Adjusted” Peak

Renewables
NuclearGas
Oil

200

Coal01850

Nakicenovic

Biomass

1900

1950

2000

Source: After Grubler et al, 20182050

2018 #28

ALPS LED Energy for ‘Decent Living’HouseholdCommunity

SocietyNakicenovic

Source: Rao & Min, 20172018 #29

ALPS LED Decent Living (DL)Minimum DL

LED by 2050

2500

>3000

Shelter (residential),
m2/capita

10~30

Consumer goods,# of devices/Household
GJ/capita

A/C, clean cooking,refrigeration, washing,TV, phone: >6
3.5-4.1>27
3.7-8.2

7000

>7600

12-26
(today’s technology,range India-Brazil)>27(future technology: more
service output per input)

DL Indicator
Food intake, cal/day/capita

Mobility,
pass-km/yr/capita
Total DL Final Energy
inputs, GJ/capita

DSL requirements ensure that people have the means to pursue a decent life, and avoid harm to their basic
interests (Rao & Min, 2017). DSL requirements include amenities that ensure good health, quality of life, and thosethat enable people to engage with society. DSL energy requirements include “upstream” infrastructure and ancillary
services (education, culture, materials, goods transport, etc.)

Nakicenovic

2018 #30

ALPS LED Highlights
 Higher levels of energy services than GEA
 Decent living for all (well above poverty)
 “Peak” energy driven by (technological andservice) efficiency
 Lowest demand scenario (<250EJ by 2050)
 End-use transformations (efficiency,electrification) lead to decarbonization
 Below 1.5oC with no negative emissions
 Significant SDGs synergies (>6 SDGs)
Nakicenovic

2018 #31

Nakicenovic

2018 #32

Varialift Airship

Nakicenovic

2018 #33

Varialift Airship

Nakicenovic

2018 #34

Carbon Composite BMW i3

Nakicenovic

2018 #35

Carbon Composite BMW i3 & i8

Nakicenovic

2018 #36

Nakicenovic

2018 #37

Carbon Composite TrainNakicenovic

Source: CRRC Changchun Railway Vehicles Co

2018 #38

Carbon Composite Train

Nakicenovic

Source: CRRC Changchun Railway Vehicles Co

2018 #39

Carbon Composite Bridge in Madrid

Nakicenovic

2018 #40

Proposed Carbon Composite Bridge
Over I-5 at Northgate Seattle

Nakicenovic

2018 #41

Grand Transformation

Nakicenovic

2018 #42

Transformational Change
1850

1900

1950

Nakicenovic
Source:After Granger Morgan, 2013

2000

2050

2018 #4343

Nakicenovic

2018 #44

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.org)“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

Vision:SustainableFuture

Transformation Diffusion

Target space 2050+ →One “backcasting” storyline andmany transformational pathways← Target space 2030

Legitimacy ofBAU eroding
2030
Nakicenovic

2050

Source: After WBGU, 20112018 #45

Disruptive Change

Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles
zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe.
Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans
Ende der Welt.

Nakicenovic

Source: Campanale, Carobntracker

2018 #46

Sankt. Petersburg Airport Duty Free

Nakicenovic

2018 #47

ありがとうnaki@iiasa.ac.at