Deep emission reduction
for transportation sector
ALPS International Symposium, Tokyo 19. Feb
Jari Kauppila, Head of Quantitative Policy Analysis andForesightCO2 from transport

Currently foreseeable
policies to mitigatetransport CO2 are notsufficient to achieve
climate ambitions
Transport will emit c. 7.5
giga-tonnes of CO2 in2050, roughly the sameas in 2015 – even if all
known tools are applied

3Transport in (I)NDCs
Out of the 194 parties which have submitted
either INDCs or NDCs



86% provide an economy-wide, quantified CO2reduction target
81% mention the transport sector
60% provide transport mitigation “measures”
10% provide a quantified CO2 reduction target
for transport

CO2 from urban passenger transport

60% technology

40% behavior

Baseline

Low carbon

The right policies cansignificantly cut transport
CO2 emissions in cities

CO2 from urban passenger transport

But are not sufficient toachieve climate ambitions

60% technology

40% behaviour

Accelerated innovation andradical policy choices – such as

shared mobility arerequired
Baseline

Low carbon

disruption

dataUrban Mobility: System Upgrade

commuteWhy

What we did

What we found

City of Stockholm

10% of 18 years oldhave a driver’s licence
Aretun&Nordbakke, 2014

Future obsolescence of the drivers license
D RIVING LICENCE

2017

D RIVING LICENCE

2035

2052

walkcycle

publictransportcarmobility in the cityride-sourcing

walkcycle
bike share

publictransportcar
car share on-demand
public transport

mobility in the cityride-sourcing

walkcycle
bike share

publictransportcar
car share on-demandtransit

Mobility as a Service

50 min.

what if?

real city

real* trips

real routes

same quality

Shared “taxis”
simultaneous ride-sharing

Door-to-Door Service
8 seat Minivan reconfigured for 6 pax,
easy and quick entry and exit
Max waiting time variable with distance :5 min (<=3 km) to 10 min (>= 12 km)
Max total lost time (wait+detour) variablewith distance : 7 min (<=3 km) to 15 min(>=12 km)

Ford

TaxiBus

optimised on-demand bus

Street-corner to street-corner service.
Max walking distance 400m
Microbuses with 8 and 16 pax capacity(all seated)
Requests with 30 min notice (or preregistration for regular service).

Acceptable tolerance of 10 min after
desired time. Information to client aboutboarding point and time 10 min. before
boarding
All direct rides, no transfers

Ford Go Ridehigh-capacity
public transportLisbonScenario: 24 hours

24hrs.

number of carsrequired to provide thesame trips as before:LisbonScenario: 24 hours

24hrs.

number of carsrequired to provide thesame trips as before:3%car fleet-97% -93% -97% -96%

CO2 emissions-31% -54% -62% -34%

EV recharging/range constraints =2% more cars.

public transport+54% +681% +47% +30%

eliminate
all on-street parking+20%
kerb-to-kerb street space

Urban Mobility: System Upgrade

Why

What we did

What we found41Understanding user preferences
Focus group for each city
Stated preference survey

Shared mode in stated preference survey
Nonmotorised

9%
17%

6%

30%

PT

12%

63%

Walk

5%

9%
23%

9%

Bicycle

7%

2%
11%

6%

Rail

Car

44%

58%

1%

Car
SharedTransport

SharedModeHelsinkiBus

AucklandDublinCO2 emissions (20%)-22% -15% -19% -4%

Recommendations
Consider integrating shared mobility into transport offer
Use shared services as feeder to increase use of public transport

Ensure sufficient scale for services
Target potential early adopters (car users)

Transition
Integrate land use and transport policies
Part of other policy instruments

Policies to manage changes to parking space
Legal and regulatory framework
Business models

Thank you!
Jari Kauppila
T +33 (0)1 45 24 97 21
E jari.kauppila@itf-oecd.org
Postal address
2 rue Andre Pascal
75775 Paris Cedex 16