Energy and Economy Transition in China
under the Global 1.5C target
Kejun Jiang
Senior Researcher, Energy Research Institute in China■Abstract
Energy supply play most important role in the deep cut future. Recent IPCC reports
clearly presents rapid transition in energy system. By 2050, renewable energy and nuclear
will dominate energy supply. This is same story for China. Figure 1 show the primary energy
demand in China based on IPAC results. The energy industry will shift largely to renewableenergy and nuclear. Figure 2 give power generation in the 1.5°C scenarios. All these show
the energy sector transition is significant, and they present one part of economic transition.

Primary Energy Demand
3500.0

BioLiquid

3000.0

Biomass PowerMtoe

2500.0Solar

2000.0Wind

1500.0

Nuclear

1000.0

Hydro

500.0

N.Gas
Oil0.0
2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2050

Coal

Figure 1 Primary energy demand in China, 1.5 scenario

Power Generation, 1.5℃ Scenario
16000
14000

Bio

TWh

12000

Solar

10000

Wind

8000

Nulcear

6000

Hydro

4000

N.Gas

2000

Oil fired
Coal fired

0
2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2050

Figure1 Power generation scenarios for China, 1.5 scenario

Clear reduction targets will ask industries and consumer to response. Policies forreduction could change the production structure. New industry process including hydrogenas feedstock and reduction materials to make steel, chemical products; new technologies
including advanced battery for vehicles and power storage, advanced nuclear power
generation etc.; new materials which could replace high emission products, such as plastic

from renewable materials; new consumption behaviors including carbon labeling, carbon
footprint life, which can change manufacture industry significantly; new energy use
pattern to be zero emission energy supply, or even negative emission energy supply. Dueto GHG emission reduction, the whole economic system has to make the transition to matchthe requirement for deep cut of GHGs.
■Biography
Kejun Jiang’s research focus is energy, climate change mitigation and air pollution
prevention policy assessment by using IPAC modeling, to support national five year plans,and long-term planning. He began his research in ERI from 1990, and led the developmentof Integrated Policy Assessment Model for China (IPAC). IPAC modeling team is now aleading research team on China’s 2050 energy transition studies by providing benchmark
research results. Major research focus includes energy and emission scenarios, energy
policy, energy system, energy market analysis, and climate change, local environment
policies and international negotiation. He also was authors of IPCC for Special Report onEmission Scenario from 1997, and Working Group III Third Assessment Report, leader
author for IPCC WGIII AR4 Chapter 3, and leader author for GEO-4 Chapter 2, CLA in
WGIII of IPCC AR5, LA for IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report, CLA of IPCC Special Report on
1.5℃ Warning, Vice Co-Chair of GEO6. From 2010, he is author for UNEP Emission Gapsand authors of WEOs, Emission Gap reports by now. Now he is lead author of IPCC AR6WGIII. He also joined international research collaboration projects such as EMF, FP6, FP7and H2020 research projects. He is member of Scientific Panel of UNEP CCAC, andScientific Committee of IAMC. He got his Ph.D in Social Engineering Department of Tokyo
Institute of Technology.