EXPERIENCES AND LESSONS ON ENERGY SECURITY AND NUCLEAR POWER

the case of japan
Aileen Mioko Smith
Advisor, Strategy Committee
Mayors for a Nuclear Power Free Japan

Building Unities Around Energy Security
How Will the People Respond to the Growing Nuclear Lobby?
June 4-6, 2015 – Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

0REACTORSACTIVE
Japan map: Wikipedia, based on work by Connormah

泊原発 Tomari

柏崎刈羽原発Kashiwazaki-Kariwa

東通原発 Higashidori

志賀原発 Shika
女川原発 Onagawa
高浜原発 Takahama
島根原発 Shimane

東海第二原発 Tokai

玄海原発 Genkai

浜岡原発Hamaoka

川内原発 Sendai
伊方原発IkataJapan map: Wikipedia, based on work by Connormah

美浜原発
Mihama
大飯原発
Ohi

23REACTORSFOR RESTART43REACTORSTOTALJapan map: Wikipedia, based on work by Connormah

2014 Poll
The Majority of Japanese Citizens
Want to End Nuclear Power

84.3% total =phase outend as soon as possible orend immediately

23 May 2014, Jiji Press
Akahata newspaperLatest Opinion Poll:
70.8% are opposed to restart and27.9% are for restart
73.8% believe another accident like Fukushima could
occur if reactors were restarted now.
At the same time: 52.6% would accept restartfollowed by phase out of nuclear power.
Anzen-Anshin Kenkyu Center
Director: Hirotada HIROSE (Emeritus professor, Tokyo Women’sChristian University)
Nippon Research Center (Member of Gallup International Association)
Issued: 7 April 2015 (Research: 4 March – 16 March 2015)

Takahama Unit 3 and 4
The court has ruled the reactors
cannot operate. Kansai Electric
has appealed the case.
Ikata Unit 3
Many safety issues remain.
Neighboring prefecture legislatures
are opposed.

Sendai Unit 1 and 2
Expected to restart the end of July 2015. Recent
volcano activity in Japan, lack of evacuation plans,public opposition, etc. may delay restart.

Issues facing Japan today• Safety: Earthquakes, volcanoes, serious accidents,off-site
emergency planning, etc.
• Electricity supply• Economics• Cost of electricity and its effects on the Japaneseeconomy—managing the current situation• The challenge: how to financially manage shutdown of
all electric utility nuclear power plants• Regional economy — subsidies, jobs, etc.
• Carbon Emissions• Civil Society and Democratic Process• Values/Ethics — Economy vs. Other Social Values11fukushima
THE CAUSE OF THE ACCIDENT
THE CURRENT SITUATIONThe National Diet of Japan
Fukushima Nuclear Accident Independent
Investigation Commission (NAIIC) oﬃcial report:!

Lack of democratic processcaused the Fukushima accident.

Protest demanding no restart
In front of the Prime Minister’soﬃcial residence, June 2012150,000 evacuees
Empty towns /broken communities
Repatriationpressure
Withdrawal ofgovernment support
Lawsuits
Economic costs
Health problems
Contaminated soil
Oceancontamination

150,000 evacuees
Empty towns /broken communities
Repatriationpressure
Withdrawal ofgovernment support
Lawsuits
Economic costs
Health problems
Contaminated soil
Ocean
contamination

150,000 evacuees
Empty towns /broken communities
Repatriationpressure
Withdrawal ofgovernment support
Lawsuits
Economic costs
Health problems
Contaminated soil
Ocean
contamination

150,000 evacuees
Empty towns /broken communities
Repatriationpressure
Withdrawal ofgovernment support
Lawsuits“Nuclear Power: Energy with a Bright Future”

Economic costs
Health problems
Contaminated soil
Ocean
contamination

Thyroid cancers in Fukushima prefecture

Thyroid cancer and/or suspectedcases have been found outside the30km zone.
Fukushima prefecture states thesenumbers are not in excess ofnormal levels.
Source:Fukushima Health Management Survey, 2015

Costs of the Fukushima accident""¥5.8trillion¥50trillion

Government estimate
December 2011

NGO estimate
March 2012

nuclear power
IN JAPAN: 1970 – PRESENT

!
#$

¥

%% # $¥!

Anxiety about employment future

Anxiety about being able to evacuate
5）1110⑬再 稼 働すると町 の将 来 が心 配

⑭ 他（

18⑫安 全 対策 が 数 年先 になっているの が 心配

1328

⑪ 地 域や 日 本 の経 済 が 心配261021⑩ ４閣 僚 の 判断 基 準 で安全 なの か 心配

2231929⑨福 島 原 発事 故 の 原因 究 明が まだで心 配⑧ 観光 や 風 評被 害 が心 配

⑦ 再 稼 働しない と町 の将 来 が 心配

⑥ 事 故に なったとき、避難 できるか心 配⑤ 地 震（３つ の 活断 層 が 連動 ）で大 事 故 にならないか心 配④ 電 力不 足 が心 配

③子 や 孫 の将 来 が心 配

3451

22462220

Top 4 concerns:
Anxiety about becoming another Fukushima② 福 島原 発 事 故の ようにならないか 心配① 雇 用（仕 事）が心 配

029261934

36406290

61

80

93100120

4

アンケート回答者数：男性１４４名、女性２０４名 合計３４８名

3760（おおい町の皆さんへのアンケート結果）
140

男女

160

Post-Fukushima questionnaire of townspeople
at a nuclear power plant site

Anxiety about children’s future

Date: 21–22 April 2012
144 individuals of Ohi Town, Fukui Prefecture
By: Green Action and 3 other citizen organizations

Abe government’s energy policy for 2030

Government proposal: 1 June 2015
Japan will raise nuclear power ratio to 20%* by 2030.

*nuclear power to provide 20% of Japan’s electricity

METI’s plan for
subsidizing nuclearpower(Proposed August 2014)
This example is based on a 10 yen/kwh guaranteed price for utilities.
The utility sells at 8 yen/kwh andelectricity consumers subsidize 2yen.

Graph by Sankei newspaperElectricity Costs in Japan (Actual)
1970~2007
1412Nuclear Power was never cheap
108Siting cost

6Development cost

Electricty unit cost

420

NuclearEnglish translation

Fossil Fuels

Hydro

Hydro w/o
Pump Storage

Nuclear+Hydro Pump Storage

Source:Electric utilities’ annual securities report/ Japanese government data.
Compiled by:
Kenichi Oshima (Economist. Professor, College of International Relations, Ritsumeikan University)
June 2010

Two Choices

This part

Nuclear power

This part

becomes cheaper

maintainancebecomes cheaper

Procurement

Procurement
Nuclear power
maintainanceFossil fuelFossil fuelNuclear fuelProcurement
Fossil fuelZero nuclear power

Preparing for nuclear restart

Restart nuclear power(After rate increase)

Zero nuclear or restart, which is cheaper varies with electric utility

English translation

1 March 2015
"Nuclear Power and Electricity Prices”
Kenichi Oshima (Economist, Professor, College of International Relations, Ritsumeikan University)
Study Seminar: Electricity Rate Increase and Nuclear Power
Organized by: Green Action and Consumers Kyoto

Nuclear Regulation Authority (NRA)
5 Commissioners

Governors and Mayors Deciding Restart Issue

Yuichiro ITO
Governor, Kagoshima
Prefecture

Kazumi NISHIKAWA
Governor, FukuiPrefecture

Tokihiro NAKAMURA
Governor, Ehime
Prefecture

Hideo IWAKIRIMayor, Satsuma-Sendai
City, Kagoshima
Prefecture

Yutaka NOSE
Mayor, Takahama Town,
Fukui Prefecture

Kazuhiko YAMASHITA
Mayor, Ikata Town,
Ehime PrefectureNuclear emergency:
253,000 evacuees

Court legally bars operation ofTakahama nuclear power plant

14 April 2015大沼駅

川貧乏山

501.0

小沼丸山熊泊山

909.2

硫黄山

"木地挽山

817.9

七飯町

592.1

835.0

大船温泉下の湯

万畳敷原野

横津岳

北大水
産
実
験
所

大船遺跡

泣面山

楢山

683.0

大間
原発
から5０kmThe City of Hakodate is seeking a court injunction
to bar operation of the Ōma Nuclear Power Plant
大船温泉上の湯1166.9

ニヤマ高原

覚王寺

仁山駅

袴腰岳

七飯岳

1108.3

779.2

大野川

横津岳

鳴川岳

渡島大野駅

七飯駅

北斗市

磯ダム

蝦夷松山

古部漁港

銚子岬

蓬揃山

500.9

桔梗駅

清川
口
駅

久根
別駅

228

228

函館KGカントリーC

笹流貯水池

227 七四稜郭

5五稜郭駅

279

函館山

恵山岬
恵山
618.1

香雪 函
園 館

五稜郭函館駅

函館市

函館パークCC

渡島総合振興局

椴法
華
支所

矢別ダム

“If a severe
accident occurs,
the municipalities
in the area willcollapse.”
重浜駅

七重浜

大函館港

葛登支岬

大間原
発から
４０km

新川汲トンネル

747.0

667.0

上
磯
駅

茂別館
跡

木直漁港

台場山

雁皮山

新中野ダム

大中山駅

南部坂ダム

30.4

842.1

570.4

松前藩戸切地陣屋跡

函館倶楽部

川汲温泉

三森山

庄司山

函館
本線

川

石崎

南茅部支所

769.2

函館よこつGC

観音山

当別駅

弁天岬

縄文ロマン南かやべ

浄水場

湯の川
温泉

321.3

函館空港

志苔
館
跡

恵山
支所

大間原発
から３０km
気無山

清水山

なとわ・えさん

415.1

黒岩岬

立待岬

278

大鼻
岬

日浦岬
戸井支所

戸井漁港

汐首岬

大間原発から２０km

Mayor Toshiki
KUDOH

大間原発建設地

弁天島

大間崎

クキド瀬戸

割石崎
汐垂石

大間港

大間FT
折戸山

根田内崎

!

大間
温泉

ハネコエ島

大間町
高岩

目滝
三界平山

恵山漁港
山背泊漁港

Petition Concerning
Nuclear Power
Emergency Measures
23 April 2015
Union of Kansai Governments(7 governors and 4 mayors)
to Japanese Government
English translation

We seek that the national government address thefollowing matters immediately.
We cannot accept restart of the Takahama nuclear
power plant unless the following is realized.
Excerpt:
The government exert its leadership to have the owner/operator
immediately sign a safety agreement with local and regional authorities
including the PAZ and UPZ zones, a same agreement equal in level asthat signed with the authorities of the reactor site.
Clarify the responsibility of the national government.
>>

By:
Providing a clear explanation concerning the criterion and the procedure
for arriving at a judgement about restart (of the nuclear reactors).
What entity will take responsibility for the risks.
How will this responsibility be shouldered.
Establish the necessary legal framework in order to implement theabove.
Clarify which local authorities the government will seek consent from.
Explain, with clear and concrete substantiation, how executableevacuation measures will be secured.

Japan: Areas within
250 kilometers ofnuclear power plants
23 May 2014
Akahata newspaper

Fukui: “No” to restarting nuclear powerFukui: “No” to restarting nuclear powerKyoto: Protesting Restart of Nuclear Power

Demonstrations in central Kyoto, 60km from Ohi and Takahama nuclear power plants (Fukui Prefecture)
2013年3月9日

バイバイ原発・京都Kyoto: Protesting Restart of Nuclear Power

Demonstrations in central Kyoto, 60km from Ohi and Takahama nuclear power plants (Fukui Prefecture)
2013年3月9日

バイバイ原発・京都

July 2007: Last Warning
Warning against Genpatsu Shinsai — a disastrous
nuclear power plant accident caused by a large
earthquake

The Chuetsu Oki
Earthquake, 16 July 2007
Smoke coming out ofTEPCO’s KashiwazakiKariwa, the highestcapacity nuclear power
plant in the world.

Katsuhiko ISHIBASHI
Seismologist, Emeritus professor, Kobe University“There are many serious defects with the New RegulatoryRequirements.”“It is outrageous that even these inadequate standards are beingviolated.”“If such lax review processes continue... this could very well lead toa second Genpatsu Shinsai (earthquake-nuclear combineddisaster).”脱原発をめざす首長会議

http://mayors.npfree.jp/

Genpatsu Zero-no-Kai(Zero nuclear power Diet members group)
Members:
64 National Diet members from 8
political parties and independents
Established 27 March 2012

Breakdown of parties:
4
Liberal Democratic Party of Japan
16 Democratic Party of Japan
8
Japan Innovation Party
6Your Party
18 Japanese Communist Party3People's Life Party
4
Social Democratic Party
1
New Renaissance Party
4
Independente-shift is a network of organizations and individuals established in the wake of the Fukushima
Daiichi nuclear disaster in March 2011. An overarching objective of e-shift is to facilitate anuclear power phase-out and promote renewable energy policies to make Japanese society
more ecological and sustainable. http://e-shift.org/

Citizens' Commission on Nuclear Energy
www.ccnejapan.com

Aileen Mioko Smith
Mayors for a Nuclear Power Free Japan
3-13-1-2F Takadanobaba, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-0075, Japan
tel: +81-3-6851-9791 fax: +81-3-3363-7562
email: mayors@npfree.jp

Aileen Mioko Smith is executive director of Green Action, aJapanese environmental NGO based in Kyoto working for a Japan
free of nuclear power.