AUSTRALIAN SUBMARINE PROJECT
Dr. Masayo Goto
masayo510@jati5.com
www.masayogoto.com

Is there a hidden agenda amongst
Australia, Japan and the US?

WHY DOES AUSTRALIA NEED A MORE POTENT ANDHEAVIER MARITIME FORCE?
The 2009 Australian Government's Defense White Paper
Defending Australia in the Asia Pacific Century: FORCE 2030
(Executive summary P13)
The principal task for the ADF is,• to deter and defeat armed attack on Australia• to contribute to stability and security in the South Pacific• to contribute to military contingencies in the Asia-Pacificregion(specifically to hedge against the rise of a belligerentChina )• to contribute to military contingencies in the rest of the world
As a result of these priorities, the ADF of 2030 will need morepotent force in certain areas, particularly undersea warfare andanti-submarine warfare (ASW), surface maritime warfareSouth China Sea dispute 1(Paracels and Spratlys)

Six countries (China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan,Brunei) lay overlapping claims to the South China Sea. China claims
by far the largest portion of territory
The area is rich in hydrocarbons and natural gas
The sea area is a major shipping route through which trillions of dollars
of global trade flow
China threatens restricted flight zone over entire South China Sea withthe right to shoot down unauthorized planes (a South China Sea Air
Defense Identification Zone or ADIZ)
China has completed some reclamation and building work on South
China Sea reefs - reclaimed land would be used for defense →Chinamight impose air and sea restrictions in the Spratlys once it completes
construction work that includes at least one military airstrip.

China has reportedly moved weapons to the reclaimed islands

South China Sea dispute 2US, Australia and Japan are concerned about freedom of movement
through the seas and air
US Defense Secretary demanded an immediate end to allreclamation works by claimants
The Australian (1 June 2015)
Australia joins the United States and numerous Asian nations indelivering strong warnings to China about the dangers of“miscalculation” and conflict as the Chinese try to take control of theregion’s island chains.
PM Abe said “What the world eagerly awaits is for our seas and ourskies to be places governed by rules, laws and established dispute
resolution procedures…The least desirable state of affairs is having tofear that coercion and threats will take the place of rules and laws.
Ten ASEAN are to adopt a “code of conduct” in the South China Sea
as soon as possible.

UNCLOS:
United Nations
Convention on
the Law of theSea

The East China Sea
Diaoyu/Senkakus

From the end of World War II, the US occupied Okinawa
including the Sekaku Islands. They were returned to Japan aspart of the reversion of Okinawa in 1972. Since then, theSenkaku islands are Japan‘s territory (Japan originally claimedin January 1895)
The dispute appears to date from the 1968 announcement by
two Japanese scientists that there may be large reservoirs of oil
under the continental shelf below the islands.
The1960 US-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security
applies to territories (including the Senkaku Islands) under theadministration of Japan.
Senkaku islands fall under US treaty commitment to defend Japan

Military confrontation in the East and South China Seas
The East and South China Seas are the scene of escalating
territorial disputes between China and its neighbors, including
Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. China’s growing
assertiveness have shaped the tensions and fueled concerns
over armed conflict. If confrontation were to involve Japan in theEast China Sea (or the Philippines in the South China Sea), the US
would consider military action under defense treaties.
The US is also looking for help from Japan, Australia and otherallies as the US confronts Chinese challenges to its naval
dominance in the Pacific.
⇓Need for advanced submarines??
What should Australia do as the ally of the US?

WHAT IS AUSTRALIAN SUBMARINE PROJECT ?

(excerpt from 2009 DWP pp70-71)
The existing fleet of six Collins Class submarines would bereplaced by a more superior class of 12 submarines
Primary operational environment would be able to undertake
prolonged covert patrols over the full distance of our strategic
approaches and in operational areas
The future submarines will require low signatures across all
spectrums including at higher speeds and submarines are to beassembled in South Australia
Australia needs to engage with a number of overseas partners
during the design and development phase, intends to continue
the very close level of Australia-US collaboration in undersea
warfare capability (based on Australia-US alliance)

AUSTRALIAN SUBMARINE PROJECT: OVERSEAS PARTNERS
PM Abbott promised during the election campaign to build a
new fleet of 12 conventional submarines in Australia to help
protect thousands of local shipbuilding jobs (They arethreatened by overseas competition and a strong Australiandollar). He then backed for a version of Japan’s Soryu
submarine. In November 2014, Japan and Australia (at thesummit meeting) agreed to jointly develop military equipment
including submarines. However PM Abbott was underpressure in saving submarine-related workers in South
Australia to keep the election promise. He decided to
implement a competitive evaluation process.
Currently, France, Germany, Japan are running for Australiansubmarine deal.

FRANCE AND GERMANY
Germany has the German combat system ISUS90,
which is said to carry US weapons.
Germany has exported 100 submarines since WWII.

France is offering a conventional version of theirBarracuda nuclear submarine, however it is not yet
operational. France has exported 20 submarines sinceWWII.

JAPAN 1

Japan has the Sōryū-class submarines (16SS) :• the most advanced, quietist non-nuclear class submarines• meets Australian requirements for its stealth abilities, long-range
and high speed capabilities
The security council of Japan has approved a bid to build
Australian submarines
Japan emphasized to cooperate with Australia in developing special steel
and other materials for its new submarines, while Japan will be in charge ofassembling them. Mitsubish and Kawasaki would agree to do much for theSoryu build in Australia. This would create 500 new high-skilled jobs + 4000
other jobs there.
If Japan wins the submarine deal, it would be a big boost for Japan's
defense industry and potentially pave the way for the sale of advanced
Japanese weapons/submarines to the Philippines and Vietnam.

JAPAN 2In April 2014, Japan already replaced the Three Principles on
Arms Exports with the Three Principles of Transfer of Defense
Equipment and Technology.
The purpose would be to export submarines and its technology
to Australia in time for the decision to be made by theAustralian government. This could also open the door forJapanese companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries andKawasaki Heavy Industries to market their military hardware
overseas.

Japan can increase defense ties with Australia

JAPAN 3

Security bills• to be in line with New Japan-US Defense Guidelines• to ensure that the US remains committed to protecting Japan
should Japan and China enter into a conflict• to counteract North Korea’s nuclear-armed missiles
In May 2015, the Japanese Cabinet approved a legislative
package on national security and then extended the current
Diet session by 95 days to secure the enactment of the securitybills. PM Abe has determined to pass the two security bills thatwould revise 10 security laws and ease various constraints on
SDF operations. Even if the bills are rejected by the Upper House,a two-thirds majority re-vote by the lower house would override.

JAPAN 4

1. International Peace Support Bill (Kokusai Heiwa Shien Hoan)
2. Peace and Security Legislation Development Bill(Heiwa Anzen Hosei Seibi Hoan)• Removal of geographical restrictions on where the SDF canoperate(a major shift from exclusively defense-oriented
security policy), e.g. minesweeping operation in the Strait ofHormuz (80 % of crude oil shipments to Japan pass through thisnarrow channel)• Provision of logistical support for US forces beyond Japan’sneighbor• Loosening tight limits on weapons use during peacekeeping
operations• Exercise of the right to "collective self-defense" to defend its
ally (to be in line with new Japan-US guidelines). However, thisrequires reinterpretation of pacifist Article 9) → War legislation

THE UNITED STATES• President Obama has focused on the importance of Asia
Pacific to the future of the US in terms of economy andsecurity objectives possibly with the idea to counteract andcontain China.
• ANZUS Treaty was established in1951. The collective security
agreement binds Australia and the US to co-operate on
military matters in the Pacific Ocean region.
• Recently US commanders have visited Adelaide and havepublicly supported a tie-up of a Japan-Australia submarine
deal. This would bind the US, Japan and Australian more
tightly together especially in the face of China’s rapid militarymodernization and growing assertiveness in the East andSouth China Seas.

New Japan-US Defense Guidelines (April 2015)
New Japan-US Defense Guidelines• to enhance US-Japan alliance• greater US-Japan coordination in the South China Sea• Bilateral actions in response to an armed attack against Japan• for global cooperation militarily, ranging from defense against
ballistic missiles, cyber and space attacks as well as maritimesecurity• to allow the exercise of the right to "collective self-defense."(e.g. Japan could shoot down missiles heading toward the US)• closely connected to Japan’s security bills• possibility of joint patrolling of Asian sea lanes• for a threat from North Korea
Japan wants to ensure that the US is committed to Japan, while theUS welcomes Japan's assistance in Asia and in the Middle East.

Japan-Australia Joint Declaration of Security
Cooperation (signed in March 2007)
Areas of Cooperation• counter-terrorism• disarmament and counter-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction• peace operations• maritime and aviation security
This bilateral security ties are essential in time of conflict with China as well as toprotect a network of gas pipelines in the region. With submarine capabilities, it
may be possible to adequately respond to the threat from Chinese submarines.
For instance, Japan’s main submarine patrol area would be the East China Sea
from the southern home island of Kyushu and Okinawa, south to Taiwan andPhilippines (Luzon Island). Australia can take charge of the Indian Ocean andSouth China Sea because Australia is conveniently located for monitoring theSouth China Sea. With enhanced submarine capabilities, Australia will be able tokeep a close eye on these seas.

Australia and Japan (recent moves)
Japan and Australia defense ministers pledged to boost defense
cooperation (June 2015 in Tokyo)
Main topics: Tensions in the South China Sea, Australia’s submarine projectto replace Collins-class submarines.
Common concern (Australia, Japan, US): They are deeply disturbed by theland reclamation activity by China in the South China, mainly the Spratly
Islands (vital shipping lane, rich fishing grounds)
Japan: Japan is to cooperate for the submarine project through the“competitive evaluation process.” The Security Council of Japan
approved disclosing some technical data on the Japanese submarine
technology to Australia (for a feasibility study on possible joint
development and production, e.g. specifications and performances )Australia: Australia is interested in Japan’s Soryu class submarine. Defense
minister visited Mitsubishi and Kawasaki Heavy Industries shipyards toinspect the manufacturing site of the Soryu class submarine.

IS THERE A HIDDEN AGENDA AMONGST
AUSTRALIA, JAPAN AND THE US?

Japan can now export submarines to Australia, as it has eased arms
export regulations. Japan is running for Australian submarine deal. Japan isto disclose some technical data on the Japanese submarine technology
to Australia. Security bills are to be enacted into law in time for Australia’s
submarine decision → Japan and Australia maritime defense
cooperation and New Japan-US Defense Guidelines (incl. maritimesecurity) are in place
Australia has a keen interest in Japan’s Soryu submarines. Australia cancontribute to military contingencies in the Asia-Pacific region to fulfill its
2009 Defense Paper by 2030.
Abbott and Abe push to cement the security ties including submarine deal
that they have fostered before they leave office……
US is in favor of Australia’s submarine agreement with Japan, considering
the interoperability of the US defense system on the Japanese submarine,and stealth, a long-range and high speed capabilities.

CONCLUSION
The most likely scenario is that Australia is to select Japan for its
submarine deal and Japan is to export submarine technology
to Australia. All of these are carefully and deliberately planned
against the rise of a belligerent China and to bring peace andsecurity in the region under Japan-Australia Joint Declarationof Security Cooperation, Australia-US alliance and Japan-USalliance. It may be a US call to foster cooperation among its
security allies in Asia.

My answer is “YES”
for the peace and security of East and South China Seas
Trilateral Security Cooperation ⇒ Trilateral Alliance？

AUSTRALIAN SUBMARINE PROJECT
Dr. Masayo Gotomasayo510@jati5.com
www.masayogoto.com

YES!!
YES!!

Is there a hidden agenda amongst
Australia, Japan and the US?

Questions
Does Australia really want to get submarine deal with Japan?
Does the US concerned about being dragged into a SinoJapanese conflict?

Is China a partner or an emery? China’s economic influence
the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AQuestions
QUESTIONS

Does Australia really want to get submarine deal with Japan?
Does Australia really want to get a submarine deal with Japan?
Does the US concerned about being dragged into a SinoIs
the US concernedJapanese
conflict? about being dragged into a Sino-Japaneseconflict?

Is China a partner or an emery? China’s economic influence
IsChinapartner or anInvestment
opponent?BankIs it correct
to say that China
theAsianaInfrastructure(Ais a partner in economy (e.g. AIIB) but an opponent in security?
Is the Trilateral Alliance (Japan, Australia, US) going to be ourfuture direction? If so, what is the main purpose?
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