PI CE S P r e s s

SUMMER 2014
VOL. 22, NO. 2

Newsletter of the North Pacific Marine Science Organization

FUTURE and the FUTURE Open Science Meeting — The future of FUTURE
by Harold (Hal) Batchelder

FUTURE (Forecasting and Understanding Trends,
Uncertainty and Responses of North Pacific MarineEcosystems) is the second integrative science program
implemented by PICES. The first science program ofPICES, the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity(CCCC) program, had a goal of increasing understandingof climate influences on marine ecosystems, especially asclimate might impact the carrying capacity of the North
Pacific to support fish resources. The goals of FUTURE
go beyond understanding climate effects to understanding
how marine ecosystems in the North Pacific respond toclimate change and human activities, to forecast ecosystemstatus based on a contemporary knowledge of how naturefunctions, and to communicate new insights to its members,governments, stakeholders and the public. This is a muchbroader mandate than that expected from the CCCC
program. It also includes new, and in some cases,
unfamiliar or difficult aspects such as developing useful(e.g., skillful, with uncertainty estimates) climate–ecosystem products and engaging with non-scientificstakeholders to determine what products are useful anddesired, and how to deliver those to receptive audiences.

The leadership of PICES, while very satisfied with thescientific productivity of the CCCC integrative program,felt there was a disconnect between the program and the six
standing committees of PICES, which are oriented along
the disciplines or technical needs of the Organization.
Thus, there was a desire to better integrate the activities ofFUTURE into the committees. This was done by taskingthe leadership of FUTURE to the PICES Science Board,which includes as its members the chairman of eachcommittee. Science Board receives advice from three
Advisory Panels (AP) that make up FUTURE, whosechairs are also members of Science Board: AP-COVE:
Climate Ocean Variability and Ecosystems, AP-AICE:
Anthropogenic Influences on Coastal Ecosystems, and APSOFE: Status, Outlooks, Forecasts and Engagement.
New expert groups would be proposed, and if approved byCouncil, established to work on new tasks that require
specific expertise or focused effort. Since the start ofFUTURE in October 2009, six new working groups, twosections and five study groups have been created tospecifically address scientific issues relevant to FUTURE.

In This Issue
FUTURE and the FUTURE Open Science Meeting —The future of FUTURE .......................................................... 1
2014 Inter-sessional Science Board Meeting: A note ................ 3
More attractive science ecosystem design for FUTURE andbeyond: A personal view ....................................................... 6
OSM Session on “Identifying multiple pressures and system
responses in North Pacific marine ecosystems” ......................... 9OSM Session on “Regional climate modeling in the NorthPacific” ................................................................................ 11
OSM Session on “Challenges in communicating scienceand engaging the public” ..................................................... 12
OSM Sessions on “Ecosystem status, trends, and forecasts”
and “Ecosystem resilience and vulnerability” ...................... 16
OSM Session on “Strategies for ecosystem management in achanging climate” ................................................................ 18
OSM Workshop on “Top predators as indicators of climatechange” ................................................................................ 20
OSM Workshop on “Bridging the divide between models
and decision-making”......................................................... 24

OSM Workshop on “Climate change and ecosystem-based
management of living marine resources” ............................. 27
OSM Workshop on an “Ecosystem projection model intercomparison and assessment of climate change impacts
on global fish and fisheries” ................................................. 29
ICES Symposium on the “Ecological basis of risk analysis
for marine ecosystems” ......................................................... 35
Human dimensions in the Russian Federation ......................... 39
Microbial Culture Collection at the National Institute forEnvironmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan ............................... 43
The Bering Sea: Current status and recent trends.................... 46
The state of the western North Pacific in the second halfof 2013.................................................................................. 49
Unusual warming in the Gulf of Alaska ................................... 51
Obituary – Dr. Toshiro Saino ................................................... 53
Program of topic sessions and workshops at PICES-2014 ....... 56
3rd International Symposium on “Effects of climate changeon the world’s oceans” ......................................................... 57
PICES Interns........................................................................... 58

ISSN 1195-2512

PICES Press Vol. 22, No. 2

North Pacific Marine Science Organization

The new working groups established specifically to addresscomponents of FUTURE are: WG 26, Jellyfish Blooms
around the North Pacific Rim: Causes and Consequences;
WG 27, North Pacific Climate Variability and Change;
WG 28, Development of Ecosystem Indicators toCharacterize Responses to Multiple Stressors; WG 29,
Regional Climate Modeling; WG 30, Assessment of Marine
Environmental Quality of Radiation around the North
Pacific; and WG 31, Emerging Topics in Marine Pollution.
These working groups have clearly defined terms ofreference, and are expected to complete their tasks usually
within three, or exceptionally four, years. The two newSections on Climate Change Effects on Marine Ecosystems(S-CCME) and Human Dimensions of Marine Systems(S-HD), created to advance FUTURE objectives, areexpected to continue during the entire program. The Study
Groups on Socio-Ecological-Environmental Systems (SGSEES) and Biodiversity Conservation (SG-BC) wereapproved by Governing Council at PICES-2013. A
common result from study groups is the recommendationof a longer term group, usually a working group, to pursuethe problem over multiple years. SG-SEES will develop an
integrated Social-Ecological-Environmental model casestudy of hypoxia and acidification in a coastal ocean andrecommend a suitable focus region. SG-BC will review
drivers of biodiversity change in the North Pacific, identify
new approaches for advancing biodiversity-base research in
the North Pacific, review past biodiversity research andidentify potential collaborations and the potential toprovide evidence-based advice for informing diversity
conservation and management. Both new study groups
will meet at PICES-2014 in Yeosu, Korea.

 Products (new science knowledge, status reports, forecasts
and outlooks, outreach and engagement), Expert group contributions and future needs, and Events (e.g., symposia, workshops).
Roadmaps with these “landmarks” are updated about twicea year and can be viewed at http://pices.int/members/scienti
fic_programs/FUTURE/FUTURE-roadmap.aspx.
Also at this workshop, PICES expert groups described
products that might emerge from the FUTURE activities
within the next 2–3 years, which is about at the time that
this article is being written. It was recognized at themeeting that products should be driven by demand fromstakeholders, which were (a) not represented at theworkshop, and (b) have not yet been surveyed or asked tospecify their needs. Products available within a few years
were judged to be sufficiently close that they were likely toappear during FUTURE but still provide time to identify
receptive audiences (outside of the scientific community).
PICES took an adaptive approach to focus on products thatwill be ready for communication soon, and to identify andcontact potential users to begin dialog to make products
relevant to their needs. Fifteen “potential” FUTURE
products were listed in a PICES Press (Vol. 20, No. 2, pp.
5–8) article about the ISB-2012 meeting and roadmap
workshop. While many are actively being worked on, orperhaps are ready, none have, to this writer’s knowledge,actually been delivered to non-scientist stakeholders.
Another recommendation that emerged from the roadmap
workshop was to hold a FUTURE Open Science Meetingin the spring of 2014. This meeting was to serve many
purposes, but I will mention only two here. First, toshowcase (and dare I say, celebrate) the breadth and depthof FUTURE-related science that has been accomplishedand second, to provide an opportunity for self assessmentand external critique of the FUTURE program goals,progress and structure. The convenors of most of thescientific sessions and workshops have written summaries
for this newsletter, which I personally thank them for theirefforts on organizing, convening and summarizing thesesessions/workshops. As to the assessment and critique, I
will leave that to the FUTURE Evaluation Team.

A workshop to develop a FUTURE “roadmap” was held in
May 2012 to provide higher level coordination of thevarious expert groups that are contributing to furthering theFUTURE objectives. A roadmap (basically sufficient
information to get from where we were two years ago towhere we want to be in 2019, when FUTURE will be
10 years old) was developed. What emerged from thismeeting was more a timeline than a map, but it did provide
indications of what new expert groups might be needed andwhat FUTURE activities would occur. Included in theroadmap were:

Dr. Hal Batchelder (hbatch@pices.int) is the Deputy Executive Secretary of PICES (sinceFebruary 2014). Prior to assuming that position he was a Professor in the College of Earth,Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (CEOAS) at Oregon State University. Hal has contributed toPICES in diverse ways previously: Co-chairman of the Climate Change and Carrying Capacity
integrative science program and Science Board member; member of several study groups andworking groups; member of AP-SOFE; and U.S. delegate to the PICES Governing Council. His
research specialization is biological oceanography and ocean ecology, with emphasis on
zooplankton population and community ecology, and the coupling of ecological processes to ocean
physics using numerical models. Recent interests have included design of Marine Protected Areas,
and the changing incidence of hypoxia on the U.S. west coast and its potential impacts on shelforganisms.

Summer 20142