PICES Press Vol. 22, No. 2

North Pacific Marine Science Organization

OSM Session on “Challenges in communicating science and engaging the public”
by Phillip R. Mundy and Harold P. Batchelder
The FUTURE OSM session on the afternoon of April 15,
2014, was organized by the Advisory Panel on Status,
Outlooks, Forecasts and Engagement (AP-SOFE) to
showcase examples of the FUTURE goal of engaging
human societies by providing useful products on ecosystemchange. SOFE has found that such products are typicallydelivered by a four-step process that consists of1) identifying climate driven ecosystem services,2) defining processes and relationships between climate
and ecosystem services, 3) developing products based on
the relationships, and 4) developing timely and reliablecommunication with stakeholders. Stakeholders are thetarget audience for whom the products are intended.
Stakeholders are, by and large, people who make decisions
regarding human uses of living marine resources (LMR)
and the habitats on which the LMR depend. These
stakeholders function at various levels of resource use andregulation, from the top government policy-makers whoprescribe the principles on which resources are to be
regulated, through the managers who apply the regulations,to the individuals who work within the regulations in thecourse of earning a living. To take some examples,stakeholders are individual fisherman who need to know
where and when to fish for particular species, or fishery
managers who need to inform harvest decisions that resultin the long-term sustainability of those species. Other
examples of decision-makers in need of climate-change
products include those who regulate sensitive coastal
habitats and the policy-makers who develop the regulations
governing human activities in coastal zones. Regardless ofthe specific human activities that depend on LMR, andregardless of differences in national approaches, allstakeholders need trustworthy information about how
climate drives the ocean-provided services with which they
are concerned, which in turn requires effective
communication at all levels.

to integrate the complex suite of environmental drivers ofnatural resources to effectively communicate theconsequences of climate change on LMR was addressed by
one talk (Zhang et al.).
The keynote talk of Bill Peterson (USA) in the morning
plenary session, “A case study from the northern California
Current”, illustrated SOFE’s four-step process for
producing useful products on climate driven LMR.
Improvements in salmon management have been achievedby communicating more precise estimates of the numbersof salmon available to the fisheries. Increases in precision
have been made possible by considering ocean conditionsin the first summer of ocean entry, including hydrography
and forage base from a long-term set of observations (now19 years). Outlooks (the O in SOFE), or qualitative
forecasts of coho and spring Chinook salmon adultabundance, and corresponding quantitative forecasts (the F
in SOFE) have been developed based on a multivariate
suite of ocean and ecological indicators. Simple-tounderstand qualitative aids to communication include“stoplight charts” with green indicating favorable, yellow
intermediate, and red unfavorable conditions of a particular
input indicator. Years with many favorable (green lights)
should be ocean entry years that favor survival of salmon,
and predictions might indicate high returns of coho thefollowing year, and of Chinook in two years. These aids
are quantitatively supported on the web site withdescriptions of the indicator and why it is related to salmon
survival—usually described mechanistically as top-down
or bottom-up linkages in the marine food web.

Effective communication is the common theme that unites
the eight presentations and the preceding keynote addressof Session S3 on “Challenges in communicating scienceand engaging the public”. The keynote address and twoother talks provided examples of communicating effectively
with stakeholders to understand the products necessary todeal with climate driven resources (Peterson et al., Ito and
Yamada, Orsi and Mundy). Three of the talks wereconcerned with building consensus among stakeholders
through effective communication using diverse methods ofreaching common understandings (Seino, Barbeaux and
Lee, Volk et al.). In the realm of human dimensions, two of
the talks dealt with communicating effectively throughunderstanding the diversity of values and motivations
among stakeholders (Yagi et al., Kurilova). Using models
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S3 Plenary speaker, Dr. William Peterson, speaking on the three pillars of
SOFE related to providing management advice on Columbia River salmon.

Communication of the qualitative and quantitative
information is through oral presentations to the public andmanagers. Uptake of the approach has been mixed, withsome audiences very receptive, while others are reticent toalter the existing practices to salmon return forecasting,even in light of evidence that the approach may be more12

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reliable, and because of a concern that the underlying data
supporting the approach are produced by a research
program rather than on an ongoing permanently funded
operational basis.

depends. Set net fisheries, especially those targeting
salmon, are key fishing industries in coastal villages ofnortheastern Japan. Illustrating SOFE’s four-step process,the problem was identified as environmentally damaged
fisheries, the solution was to apply advanced technologies
to recover the former marine harvest capacity, the approach
was to build monitoring based on the needs of fisherman
for ocean data, and the problem was solved bycommunicating to the fishers the information in real-timefrom sensors using phone apps and the web. Identified key
data sets for the set net fishery were current velocity, wave
height and direction, and wind velocity and direction. Highcurrent velocities can submerge the trap making recovery
difficult and enabling escapement of trapped fish, and dataon waves and winds is used to plan recoveries of gear.
Prior to the tsunami, most implemented monitoring was fortemperature (and mostly for aquaculture needs), but
aquaculture and fishers are able to get temperature datafrom other sources, whereas current velocities are notreadily available elsewhere.
Conversations with thestakeholders identified a previously unknown priority to set
net fishers, which could be met in deploying replacementmonitoring systems. Peterson, Orsi and Mundy and Ito and
Yamada provided compelling real-world examples of thevalue of the types of scientist-stakeholder engagement for
which SOFE was established.

Emphasizing the points made in Peterson’s keynote, Orsiand Mundy (both USA; presented by Joseph Orsi) and Itoand Yamada (Japan) also illustrated by example the fourstep process of SOFE in direct application to fishery
management. Orsi and Mundy use data types and methods
identical to those of Peterson over longer periods of time,
applying physical and biological oceanographic observations
to provide qualitative and quantitative forecasts thatenhance fishery management capabilities. Orsi reported on
his research resulting in a pink salmon abundance forecast
for southeast Alaska that has been issued for eleven years(since 2004) based on a fisheries oceanography study thatstarted in 1998 (17 years). The unprecedented precision of
the annual pink salmon forecast has enabled the fishingindustry to better prepare for the large fluctuations inannual abundance typical of pink salmon fisheries. BothPeterson and Orsi and Mundy identify approaches based on
ocean sampling of the early marine life cycle stage of
salmon to enable fishery management with more precise
forecasts of abundance in the subsequent fisheries. Orsi
also described Mundy’s use of a long time series (52 years)of physical and biological observations to pinpoint thetiming of marine exit of Chinook salmon, which allows
fishery managers to estimate the abundance of the Chinook
returns using data from the freshwater fisheries. BothPeterson and Orsi and Mundy communicate the uncertainty
associated with quantitative harvest forecasts using simple
qualitative rankings, various kinds of meetings, and via theweb.

An important aspect of effective communication is building
consensus among stakeholders using diverse methods toreach common understandings. Presentations by Seino,
Barbeaux and Lee, and Volk et al. provided examples ofthis critical aspect of SOFE’s four-step process fordeveloping useful products to inform stakeholders aboutclimate change. Seino (Japan) introduced the topic bydescribing how several international conventions andtreaties, such as the Convention on Biological Diversity,and international trends, such as in coastal and wetland
conservation,
haveenablednew
multi-sectorial
environmental conservation and restoration frameworks inJapan. Seino noted that domestic coastal environmental
issues have become very complicated, and social sectors
are demanding more integrated approaches to management
and increased communications across sectors. Seacoast
habitats, especially rocky shores, are of immense culturaland aesthetic value in Japan. For example rocky coastal
areas are the workplace of highly respected and iconic
elderly women who gather seaweed and harvest shellfish.
Communication between managers and their constituents isimportant in shaping the evolution of coastal policy inJapan. Building consensus among stakeholders was
highlighted by Volk et al. (USA), who described theexhaustive process and intricate organizational frameworkthat was essential to effectively communicate with diverse
stakeholders who were concerned about inequities ofregional harvest patterns of chum and sockeye salmon in
the fisheries of Western Alaska. The Western Alaska
Salmon Stock Identification Program (WASSIP) was
implemented to inform participants regarding the origin of

Dr. Shin-ichi Ito describing the information needs of the set net fishery.

Using an approach similar to that of Peterson et al. andOrsi and Mundy, Ito and Yamada (Japan) used ocean data
to enable coastal fisheries in the area most impacted by the2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami.
Demonstrating the tightly environmentally dependent
nature of these fisheries, the tsunami severely damaged
fishery production by destroying vessels and gear and theharbors and aquaculture facilities on which production
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North Pacific Marine Science Organization

salmon in commercial and subsistence salmon fisheries.
Residents of western Alaska were very concerned thatfisheries in other parts of Alaska were removing so manysalmon that their opportunity to harvest was precluded.
WASSIP used accepted genetic methods to identify theorigins of salmon in the contested areas, thereby gaining
widespread trust among regional interests. The key tosuccess at resolving the disputes was effective
communication with stakeholders about the fundamentals
of sampling design and statistical analysis protocols. The
common understandings achieved on the reliability ofsampling and statistical methods of analysis satisfied
stakeholder concerns to the extent that the results were
accepted as a basis for agreement. Consensus building
between managers and harvesters was further illustrated by
Barbeaux (USA), who described joint USA-Korea
cooperative research projects using Korean managed
fisheries. The research was intended not only to collectdata for fisheries management, but also to foster
communication and broaden stakeholder engagement infisheries research. Consensus was achieved by developinga trusted common data base, as was also the key to successon the studies described by Seino and Volk et al. The
respected common database was built by providing
relatively inexpensive temperature loggers on fishing gear(headropes of commercial trawlers; red snow crab pots; andsoon commercial longliners and purse seines).
Opportunistic acoustic data archiving to hard drives wascollected to describe animal density, depth and seasonal
distribution. Lessons learned from the consensus-building
exercise are that fisherman and stakeholders in Korea andUSA are eager to participate in cooperative monitoring/
research, that stakeholders develop greater trust in science
when engaged in data collection, and that the resulting
consensus improves communication. In addition, formulating
and communicating clear and reasonable objectives forresearchers and participating stakeholders is essential tosuccessful participatory science, as is developing realistic
expectations among fishers and managers.
Culturaldifferences matter. For instance, in Korea, small mistakes
are more likely to discourage stakeholder cooperation,
whereas in the USA, such missteps are considered learning
opportunities that contribute to the successful evolution ofconsensus building projects.

MA). For people in both coastal and inland areas, cultural
benefits were most linked to behavioral intentions,
including funding marine conservation—even more so thanessential benefits. Cultural benefits, moreover, were theonly significant influence in inland regions. Conversely,
essential benefits also influenced behavior in coastal
populations. The survey results suggest that enhancementof cultural benefits will most impact future marine
conservation efforts.
Reinforcing the importance ofunderstanding the values and motivations of stakeholders,
Kurilova (Russia) described that the mechanism ofcommunication in remote coastal Russian communities
depends on the strong regional cultural differences of small
ethnic communities, which often have unique local
concerns. Her conclusion was that the message andmethod of communication depends on the audience;
therefore, understanding the diversity of values andmotivations among stakeholders that directly determine thelevel of satisfaction from ecosystem services is essential toeffective communications.
Models are a powerful means of effectively communicating
the consequences of climate change on living marine
resources and the human uses of those resources. Zhang(Korea) described the current status of Integrated Fisheries
Risk Analysis Method for Ecosystems (IFRAME) as aframework supporting ecosystem approach for fishing. He
reviewed the ecosystem effects of fishing, which inaddition to harvest mortality (the direct effect), haveindirect, perhaps undesirable side effects of bycatch,
habitat modification or destruction, and biologicalinteractions. IFRAME involves assessment of ecosystem
structure and risk, forecasting structure and risk, andevaluating and implementing management. The
implementation is iterative, with feedbacks frommanagement on assessment and forecasting. New to
IFRAME is the use of semi-quantitative or qualitative
analysis when knowledge level of the ecological systems islow. Zhang showed examples of how IFRAME methods
contribute to FUTURE objectives and questions, how
AICE and COVE could contribute to the assessments,
forecasting and management aspects, and how SOFE
should be used to disseminate outlooks and forecasts fromIFRAME, and solicit feedback from management strategies.

In the realm of human dimensions, the session establishedthe principle that communicating effectively requires
understanding the diversity of values and motivations
among stakeholders (Yagi et al., Kurilova). Yagi (Japan)
contrasted the results of a socioeconomic survey of coastal
and inland communities in Japan regarding the importanceof marine ecosystem services and its influence on humanbehavior.
He identified three factors important inregulating behaviors with regard to marine ecosystemservices: essential benefits (supporting services of theMillenium Ecosystem Assessment [MA]), indirect benefits(analogous to regulating and provisioning services of MA),and cultural benefits (corresponding to cultural benefits ofSummer 2014

Dr. Phil Mundy, one of the co-convenors of S3, addressing the audience.

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PICES Press Vol. 22, No. 2

Each of the nine presentations described above illustrates
successful application of SOFE’s four-step process forfulfilling the FUTURE premise that it is possible to deliveruseful and timely products on climate driven ecosystemchange to resource stakeholders. The validity of thispremise was a cornerstone of the rationale for creating the
PICES FUTURE program. The session has provided
extensive examples that validate the fundamental FUTURE

premise. A potential stumbling block for extending theapplication of the FUTURE premise is the daunting natureof the data collection efforts necessary to build the longtime series of observations that underpinned the examples
of success presented in this session. Moving toward fulloperational status will require secure long-term funding tocontinue the observational framework that enables
forecasts and outlooks of the type described in this session.

Dr. Phillip Mundy (Phil.mundy@noaa.gov) is Director of Auke Bay Laboratories (ABL), Juneau, Alaska. As adivision of NOAA’s Alaska Fisheries Science Center, ABL collects observations on the physical and biologicalproperties of the Gulf of Alaska, Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas to provide information for management of living
marine resources. Phil received his Ph.D. in Fisheries Science from the University of Washington. He served on thefaculty of Old Dominion University and the University of Alaska Fairbanks. He has served as a scientific advisor to
the North Pacific Fishery Management Council and the Pacific Salmon Commission. Phil was a charter member of
the North Pacific Research Board who contributed to developing the Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research
Program. His most compelling current interest is implementing the ecosystem approach to management in the
Arctic, which he pursues as a U.S. delegate to the Arctic Council. In PICES, he serves as Chairman of the Advisory
Panel on Status, Outlooks, Forecasts, and Engagement and Advisory Panel on the Continuous Plankton Recorder
Survey in the North Pacific, and is a member of Science Board and MONITOR.
Dr. Hal Batchelder (hbatch@pices.int) is the Deputy Executive Secretary of PICES (since February 2014). Prior
to assuming that position he was a Professor in the College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences (CEOAS)
at Oregon State University. Hal has contributed to PICES in diverse ways previously: Co-chairman of the
Climate Change and Carrying Capacity integrative science program and Science Board member; member ofseveral study groups and working groups; member of AP-SOFE; and U.S. delegate to the PICES Governing
Council. His research specialization is biological oceanography and ocean ecology, with emphasis on
zooplankton population and community ecology, and the coupling of ecological processes to ocean physics using
numerical models. Recent interests have included design of Marine Protected Areas, and the changing incidenceof hypoxia on the U.S. west coast and its potential impacts on shelf organisms.

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on the region and dynamics of interest. Furthermore, it
may be necessary to adjust model resolution after an initial
exploratory investigation.
Another topic during thediscussion was on the need and future of ensemble
modeling in regional settings and the unique challenges
that could emerge. Of note was the conversation on the

expected number of ensemble members and the need for
multi-model ensembles. Finally, the participants discussed
the topic of bias propagation from global to regional models
and from physics to biogeochemistry. The discussion
focused on ways to identify and quantify model biases inthe different model components.

Dr. Enrique Curchitser (enrique@esm.rutgers.edu) is an Associate Professor at the Department of Environmental Sciences and theInstitute of Marine and Coastal Sciences at Rutgers University, USA. His main research interests are at the intersection of climate andecosystems. His current projects range from downscaled coupled bio-physical modeling in the California Current and Bering Sea, theimpact of climate change on coral bleaching in the Coral Triangle and on the role of the Gulf Stream in the climate and social systems ofthe northeast U.S. He is a member of the PICES Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee, Working Group 27 on Climate
Variability and Change in the North Pacific and co-chairs Working Group 29 on Regional Climate Models.
Dr. Jang Joo Chan (cjjang@kiost.ac) has been a Principal Research Scientist in the Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Divisionof the Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology since 2011. His research interests include analysis and modeling of climatechange in the North Pacific Ocean, focusing on Korean waters, circulation–ecosystem couple modeling, and turbulence modeling. He isa member of the PICES Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee, Working Group 27 on Climate Variability and Change in the
North Pacific and co-chairs Working Group 29 on Regional Climate Models.

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