World
Manufacturing
Production
Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Report on world manufacturing production

This report presents the observed growthseasonally adjusted or for which no information

rates and growth estimates of world manufac-

on seasonal adjustments was available. Since

turing production for the first quarter of 2017.

2013, growth figures have been published based

The figures are based on the index numbers of

on seasonally adjusted index numbers. Since

industrial production (IIP) collected by UNIDO

2017, seasonal adjustments are made using theStatistics from national data sources.

TRAMO/SEATS method1 in the JDemetra+

IIP measures the growth of the volume ofsoftware. The purpose of seasonal adjustment

industrial production in real terms, free fromis to filter out any fluctuations or calendar ef-

price fluctuations.

fects within the time series shifts.

Users are advised to takenote that while annual industrial growth rates

In 2013, UNIDO Statistics introduced newgenerally refer to changes in manufacturing

country groups, with economic territories being

value added (MVA), i.e. output net of interme-classified based on their stage of industrializa-

diate consumption, the quarterly indices reflecttion. This grouping is implemented in all of

the growth of gross output. Given the tempo-

UNIDO’s statistical publications. The grouping

ral nature of estimates, output growth provides

is particularly useful for presenting aggregatedthe best approximation of value added growth,

growth estimates by country group at different

assuming that the input-output relationship islevels of industrialization. In the aftermath ofrelatively stable during the observation period.

the economic crisis, the pattern of growth, par-UNIDO has been publishing quarterly re-ticularly in industrialized and developing coun-ports on world manufacturing since 2011. The

tries, differed considerably. A comparative pic-

data compilation and presentation methods areture of growth trends in different parts of theregularly updated. Earlier reports included in-world was provided to users. The full list of eco-dex figures for some countries which were notnomies used in the country groupings is avail-1

TRAMO stands for Time series Regression with ARIMA noise, Missing values and Outliers, and SEATS for Signal
Extraction in ARIMA Time Series. ARIMA is the abbreviation of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, a widely
applied statistical method for time series analyses.

2

http://www.unido.org/resources/publications/flagship-publications/international-yearbook-of-industrialstatistics.html

2

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017able in the International Yearbook of Industrial

tional index numbers which are aggregated to

Statistics2 .

the given country group or world region using

The present report implements Revision

weights based on the country’s contribution to

4 of the International Standard for Industrial

world manufacturing value added 2010.

Classification of All Economic Activities (ISIC

country grouping is based on economic territo-

Rev 4)3 in the quarterly data. For countries

ries rather than on political boundaries. This re-that publish monthly/quarterly index numbers

port presents growth figures for country groups

based on ISIC Rev 4, national data are usedby stage of industrial development and by geo-in their original form. For countries that stillgraphic region.

The

produce index numbers based on ISIC Rev 3,

Users can find further information on thegrowth figures are estimated at the 2-digit level

methodology of index numbers, estimation pro-of Rev 4 using the corresponding tables. In bothcedure or compilation of country groups’ indicescases, data on index numbers are derived fromin a methodological document, which is avail-national statistical sources. In case of missing

able on the statistical pages of UNIDO’s web-

data, UNIDO conducts imputations or projec-

site, together with indices themselves publishedtions, where appropriate. These estimates are

in UNIDO’s Quarterly IIP database, available

generally replaced as soon as the officially re-at UNIDO Statistics Data Portal4 .

ported values become available in national statistical publications.
Growth rates are calculated from the na-

This report presents estimates for the firstquarter of 2017 as well as revised estimates forthe fourth quarter of 2016.

3

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/publication/seriesM/seriesm 4rev4e.pdf

4

http://stat.unido.org/

3

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

World manufacturing growthWorldmanufacturing

gainedfurther

secutive quarters, as depicted in Figure 1. The

strength in the first quarter of 2017, building on

recent upturn in the growth performance of de-a sluggish, but already improving performanceveloping countries reflects the stronger than ex-

throughout 2016. Both industrialized economies

pected growth in China, the world’s largest man-and developing and emerging industrial econo-

ufacturer, as well as a healthy pace of growth ofmies indicated the onset of healthy dynamics

the other countries within the country group.

in manufacturing production and entered the

The major industrialized economies with a sig-

new production year 2017 with upward growthnificant share in global manufacturing output,

trends.

namely the United States, Japan, Germany andAlthough the degree of uncertainty has

the Republic of Korea, thrived during the firstlargely remained the same, recent figures pre-quarter of 2017, and pushed the average growth

sented in this report suggest that the prospects

of industrialized economies upward.

of sustained global industrial growth in the coming period both in industrialized and in developing and emerging industrial economies are improving. Risks of a downturn in the new context

Figure 1: Growth of world manufacturing output
in % compared to the same quarter of the previous year

are associated with the changes in global trade

Developing and EIE

Industrialized Economies

World

arrangements, high geopolitical uncertainty andthe implications of Brexit. In the case of devel-

6

oping economies, favourable investment conditions for the manufacturing industry are yet to4

be established.
Global manufacturing output rose by 3.72

per cent in the first quarter of 2017 comparedto the same period of the previous year, visibly
above the 2.6 per cent average increase observed0

QIV 2015

QI 2016

QII 2016

QIII 2016 QIV 2016

QI 2017in 2016. Positive trends with some improvementin growth figures were observed across all country groups, steadily progressing over several con-4

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Manufacturing production data from theper cent. Increased manufacturing production

first quarter of 2017 support the view that thewas observed across all developing regions com-positive development in industrialized econo-

pared to the first quarter of 2016. Asian de-mies at the end of 2016 was not short-lived:

veloping economies achieved a relatively higher

manufacturing output increased to 1.9 per cent

growth rate at nearly 7.0 per cent, showing thatin the first quarter of 2017 compared to thestrong global demand and investment at the be-same period of 2016. The pace of growth re-

ginning of 2017 strengthened the growth mo-mained rather moderate in the North American

mentum and broke the 2-year stagnation at theand European regions, where a 1.1 and 1.4 persame growth performance level. Other regions’cent expansion was recorded, respectively, in a

production also increased compared to the same

year-by-year comparison. Production in East

period of 2016: by a tenuous 0.4 per cent in

Asia, which experienced a significant reversal

Latin America, signaling a recovery from a long-in growth in the second half of 2016 following

lasting recession, and by a more passable but lessseveral consecutive slumps that have lasted forstable 5.7 per cent in Africa.

nearly two years, witnessed a healthy 4.2 per

Even though the level of growth in develop-

cent year-by-year upturn, and had a positive im-ing countries has been continuously higher thanpact on the manufacturing growth of industrial-in industrialized countries, the threat of a slow-

ized countries as a whole.

down remains looming over developing econo-

The manufacturing output of developing
and emerging industrial economies rose by 6.0

mies as long as economic and political instability
persists in industrialized countries.

5Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Findings by country group

Industrialized economies
The manufacturing output growth of in-

the fastest-growing manufacturers in the single-

dustrialized economies experienced some im-currency bloc. A fairly robust growth rate ofprovement over previous quarters, however,

3.5 per cent was recorded in the Netherlands,

growth is still advancing in slow motion. Ex-

2.7 per cent in Belgium, 2.6 per cent in Fin-amining the first quarter results, the 1.9 per

land, 1.8 per cent in Spain and 1.7 per cent incent growth rate was attributable to moderate

Austria. A small recession was averted in Por-growth in Europe and North America, which

tugal in the first quarter of 2017, where a 1.6

was compensated by a notable pick-up in ma-

per cent growth was registered. On the flip side,nufacturing activity in East-Asian industrialized

Ireland and Luxembourg lagged behind, theireconomies.

growth rate falling sharply by 6.4 per cent andAmong the industrialized country group,

3.8 per cent, respectively.

Europe’s manufacturing output grew by 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2017, while theeurozone registered a growth rate of only 1.1

Figure 2: Growth rates of manufacturing output in Europe,
in % to the same period of the previous year

per cent. Even though the growth trends forthese two groups nearly merged at the end of

All Europe

Eurozone

2016, the onset of 2017 brought a change, with
European countries beyond the eurozone displaying stronger resistance to adverse impacts.

2.5

2.0

The available data point to a more moderate
growth rate, when comparing year-to-year developments among the leading eurozone economies,

1.5

1.0

at 0.9 per cent in Germany, nearly 1.0 per cent
0.5

in Italy and 0.6 per cent in France. The growth
figures for the majority of eurozone countries
were positive, with a strong growth of 7.6 per

0.0
QIV 2015 QI 2016 QII 2016 QIII 2016 QIV 2016 QI 2017cent observed in Slovakia, which remains one of6Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Taking a closer look at individual coun-put over the same period of the previous year.

tries beyond the eurozone, the United Kingdom

Manufacturing output in Canada rose by 2.7 perrecorded a 2.7 per cent growth in manufacturingcent in the first quarter of 2017, benefitting from

output on a year-to-year basis, supported by thethe strong performance of machinery and equip-favourable tailwind of a weaker sterling. De-

ment.

spite an expected slowdown in the aftermath of

The disruption of a long period of consecu-

Brexit, it was the fastest manufacturing output

tive contraction in the industrialized East-Asian

growth in the UK in the last three years. Dueeconomies was confirmed by another positive re-to increased EU fund inflows, the pace of growthsult - a nearly 4.2 per cent improvement wasstrengthened in Czechia and Hungary, where aobserved in the first quarter of 2017 compared

5.4 per cent and 6.5 per cent rise was recorded,to the same period of the previous year. The

respectively. Other positive results were visible

relatively weak yen and strong global demandin Switzerland with a 0.7 per cent growth rate

fuelled Japan’s manufacturing sector, a major

as well as in Nordic countries - Sweden and Den-force behind the entire region’s upturn, record-

mark expanded their manufacturing production

ing a positive growth rate of 3.9 per cent. Thisby roughly 3.5 per cent, while Norway signif-

upswing was primarily attributable to the boost

icantly moderated its contraction rate to only

in all of Japan’s three key industries - the auto-

2.0 per cent loss. Despite the positive change inmotive industry, computers, electronic and op-

oil prices and stronger export performance, Rus-

tical products and machinery and equipment.

sian manufacturing experienced a slight drop by

The manufacturing production in the Republic

less than 1.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2017.

of Korea picked up pace at the onset of 2017,

The overall manufacturing production in

and amounted to 3.9 per cent on a year-to-year

North America grew by 1.1 per cent comparedbasis, its multi-year high. Malaysia’s total ma-

to the same period of 2016. The rate of ex-

nufacturing output recorded a 6.8 per cent risepansion picked up slightly in the United States,in the first quarter of 2017, and a very strong

but remained relatively modest with a 0.9 per

growth rate of 8.5 per cent was observed in Sin-cent improvement in total manufacturing out-

gapore.

7

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Developing and emerging industrial economies

In the first quarter of 2017, the overall ac-

2014, dropped by merely 0.4 per cent in the firstcelerated growth of manufacturing output in de-quarter of 2017. Production continued to fall inveloping and emerging industrial economies was

Argentina, albeit at a slower pace - by 3.1 peraffected by positive signals coming from differ-cent compared to the same period of the pre-ent parts of the country group - Latin Amer-vious year, likely softened by a strengthening

ica broke the long-lasting period of recession,

peso. Looking at the other countries in the re-Asian economies (including China) prospered

gion, Mexico recorded a positive growth of 3.4

more than expected and increased China-Africa

per cent, whereas manufacturing output fell intrade boosted production in Africa. Strong in-

Colombia and Chile by 2.6 and 1.2 per cent, re-vestments among private companies and healthy

spectively.

external demand were translated into the fastest
acceleration in manufacturing output in China
since the last quarter of 2014, at 7.6 per cent overFigure 3: Growth of manufacturing output of developing
economies in % to the same quarter of the previous year

the same period of the previous year. China’s
ongoing economic transition, which entails a

China
Developing and EIE
Emerging Industrial Economies

weaker but more stable and sustainable pace, isupgrading the manufacturing industry by optimizing investment in the environment and sup-8
6

porting the development of advanced manufacturing industries.
Latin American economies, which have re-42cently faced a severe decline due to a series ofdomestic and external shocks, is recovering fromlast year’s dismal performance and recorded minor, but finally positive growth of 0.4 per cent0−2
QIV 2015

QI 2016

QII 2016 QIII 2016 QIV 2016

QI 2017in the first quarter of 2017 in a year-to-yearcomparison. Argentina and Brazil have softened
the fall of their manufacturing activities and are

Improved growth performance was also ob-

slowly emerging from recession, however, given

served in Asia and the Pacific region, where ma-

the severity of the recession, these economies arenufacturing output rose by nearly 7.0 per centlikely to take a longer time for full recovery. Ma-

at the onset of 2017. Viet Nam, one of Asia’s

nufacturing production in Brazil has been con-fast-growing economies, strayed from the long-tracting uninterruptedly since the beginning ofterm trajectory of double-digit growth in manu-

8

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

facturing and achieved only 7.5 per cent in thein the first quarter of 2017. It should be noted,

first quarter of 2017 in a year-by-year compar-

however, that estimates for Africa are based

ison. Abruptly weakened exports slowed Vieton limited data. Egypt and Senegal registered

Nam’s manufacturing output growth, but thea positive two-digit growth rate, Morocco andcountry largely maintained its attractiveness forCôte d’Ivoire expanded by 1.4 per cent and 4.5

foreign direct investment. On the other hand,per cent, respectively, while Tunisia’s manufac-

surging exports in Indonesia led the country’s

turing output dropped slightly by 0.7 per centmanufacturing sector to expand by 4.3 per cent,compared to the same period of the previous

accelerating from the 2.2 per cent growth rateyear.

recorded at the end of 2016. Higher global de-trialized economy, observed the lowest growthmand prompted manufacturing growth in India,

with a contraction rate of 1.7 per cent and dim

which gained traction in the first quarter of 2017

prospects for 2017.

South Africa, the region’s most indus-

and recorded 1.5 per cent increase compared toAmong other developing economies, thethe same period of the previous year, after a dis-manufacturing output of Eastern European

appointing performance in 2016. Together withcountries achieved relatively higher growth

Bangladesh, India is expected to be the region’s

rates. Manufacturing output rose by 6.6 per centfastest-growing economy in 2017. According toin Poland, 6.7 per cent in Romania, 3.5 per cent

UNIDO estimates, very positive developments

in Bulgaria, 7.0 per cent in Serbia and 2.2 per

in growth were also observed in Saudi Arabia,

cent in Croatia. Turkey also performed well in

the Philippines and Pakistan.

the manufacturing sector, which grew by 1.7 per

According to UNIDO estimates, manufac-

cent.

turing output in Africa increased to 5.7 per cent9Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Findings by industry group

Economists are predicting that despite theAmong other high-technology sectors, the man-increased risks, the world is set for a slightly bet-

ufacture of pharmaceutical products increased

ter year in 20175 . UNIDO data largely supports

by 3.2 per cent, while almost no change wasthese predictions. Production of motor vehicles,

recorded in the production of other transport

one of the leading sectors in manufacturing, isequipment over the same period of the previous

once again experiencing a steady expansion atyear.

the global level, however, disruption of free trade

Relatively high growth rates in the pro-

could hurt automobile and component makers.

duction of basic consumer goods were main-

Nearly every major automotive producer is in-tained worldwide. The global manufacture oftensifying investments in electric vehicles despite

food products rose by 3.5 per cent, beverages

low oil prices. Future cars will increasingly be

by 2.8 per cent and the global manufacture ofelectric, connected and self-driving, and 2017

wearing apparel increased by 2.6 per cent.

will bring progress on all three fronts. A greater

As regards durable and capital goods, thesource of concern is the world’s larger automo-

production of machinery and equipment expe-

bile market, China, which is forecast to slow inrienced an exceptionally high growth rate and2017.

overtook the automotive industry in the first
Global manufacturing production main-quarter of 2017.

The manufacture of non-tained a positive growth in nearly all indus-

metallic mineral products, which essentially sup-tries in the first quarter of 2017.

High- andply construction materials, registered a growth

medium-high-technology manufacturing indus-

figure of 3.3 per cent while the manufacture oftries repeatedly held top positions, when looking

fabricated metal products rose by 2.9 per centat year-by-year developments - the manufacture

worldwide. The global manufacturing of basicof computers, electronics and optical products

metals and furniture both rose at a moderategrew by 8.5 per cent, the production of machin-pace of 2.1 per cent.

ery and equipment rose by 6.1 per cent and the

In low-technology manufacturing sectors,

manufacture of motor vehicles by 5.6 per cent.

the global production of wood products rose by

5

Industries in 2017, a special report from The Economist Intelligence Unit

10

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

3.2 per cent, while the growth pace of manu-

products, as illustrated in Figure 4. The fastest

facturing of paper products, textiles and leather

growing industry in both country groups was the

products remained below 2.5 per cent.

manufacture of computer, electronic and opti-

The growth performance of developing andcal products with Asian economies as the largest

emerging industrial economies outperformed in-contributors.

dustrialized economies in nearly all manufac-

The growth rates for selected industries areturing industries, including a number of high-presented below. Additional statistics on thetechnology industries, with only one exception -growth rates in the first quarter of 2017 are avail-the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum

able in the Statistical Tables.

Figure 4: Estimated growth rates by Industry
in % compared to previous year
Quarter I, 2017
Developing Countries

Industrialized Countries

Computer, electronic and optical products
Motor vehicles, trailers, semi−trailers
Machinery and equipment
Electrical equipment
Basic pharmaceutical products
Fabricated metal products
Wood products (excl. furniture)
Food products
Rubber and plastics products
Beverages
Other non−metallic mineral products
Wearing apparelTextilesChemicals and chemical products
Basic metals
Coke and refined petroleum products
−4

−2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

11

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Statistical Tables

Table 1
Estimated growth rates of world manufacturing output
In % compared to the previous quarter and to the same period of the previous year
Quarter I, 2017
Compared

Share

Compared

in world MVA

to the previous(2010)

quarter

World

100.0

1.1

3.7

Industrialized Economies

63.3

0.5

1.9

North America

20.6

0.8

1.1

Europe

24.1

0.4

1.4

East Asia

15.3

0.5

4.2

Developing and EIE (by development group)

36.7

1.9

6.0

China

19.8

2.1

7.6

Emerging Industrial Economies

14.7

1.4

2.1

Other Developing Economies

2.0

2.3

8.8

Developing and EIE (by region)

36.7

1.9

6.0

Africa

1.1

1.7

5.7

Asia & Pacific

26.3

2.1

7.0

Latin America

6.5

0.3

0.4

Others

2.8

2.4

4.2

to the same
period of theprevious year

Source: UNIDO Statistics
Notes: Not all subgroups are presented; seasonally adjusted data

12

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Table 2Estimated growth rates of output by manufacturing industry
In % compared to the same period of the previous year
Quarter I, 2017
Developingand Emerging

Industrialized

Industrial

Economies

World

Economies
Food products

5.7

1.9

3.5

Beverages

4.3

1.4

2.8

Tobacco products

7.2

-9.5

3.0

Textiles

3.5

-1.2

2.3

Wearing apparel

3.8

-2.2

2.6

Leather and related products

4.1

-2.0

2.5

Wood products (excl. furniture)

5.9

1.7

3.2

Paper products

4.2

0.4

2.1

Printing

4.5

-2.0

-0.3

Coke and refined petroleum products

-0.2

1.9

0.9

Chemicals and chemical products

3.3

1.8

2.5

Basic pharmaceutical products

7.3

0.5

3.2

Rubber and plastics products

5.1

1.9

3.1

Other non-metallic mineral products

4.0

2.4

3.3

Basic metals

2.6

0.9

2.1

Fabricated metal products

6.4

1.2

2.9

Computer, electronic and optical products

13.4

5.4

8.5

Electrical equipment

7.7

0.6

3.8

Machinery and equipment

9.5

4.4

6.1

Motor vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers

10.5

3.1

5.6

Other transport equipment

3.2

-1.0

0.1

Furniture

5.2

0.4

2.1

Other manufacturing

3.0

-2.1

-0.6

Total Manufacturing

6.0

1.9

3.7

Source: UNIDO Statistics
Notes: Seasonally adjusted data

13

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Table 3
Estimated growth rates of output by manufacturing industry
In % compared to the previous quarter
Quarter I, 2017
Developingand Emerging

Industrialized

Industrial

Economies

World

Economies
Food products

0.8

1.1

1.0

Beverages

0.2

0.6

0.4

Tobacco products

-4.0

-2.5

-3.7

Textiles

1.6

-0.2

1.2

Wearing apparel

2.1

0.4

1.7

Leather and related products

1.4

-1.1

0.7

Wood products (excl. furniture)

1.4

0.6

0.9

Paper products

0.9

0.2

0.5

Printing

1.4

0.1

0.5

Coke and refined petroleum products

0.1

0.4

0.3

Chemicals and chemical products

0.1

0.5

0.3

Basic pharmaceutical products

2.1

-1.2

0.1

Rubber and plastics products

2.4

0.7

1.3

Other non-metallic mineral products

1.5

1.1

1.3

Basic metals

1.9

0.5

1.4

Fabricated metal products

2.4

1.8

2.0

Computer, electronic and optical products

3.7

0.9

2.0

Electrical equipment

2.8

0.6

1.6

Machinery and equipment

3.2

1.5

2.1

Motor vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers

1.8

0.3

0.8

Other transport equipment

2.2

0.1

0.6

Furniture

3.6

0.3

1.5

Other manufacturing

1.4

-1.1

-0.3

Total Manufacturing

1.9

0.5

1.1

Source: UNIDO Statistics
Notes: Seasonally adjusted data

14

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Table 4
Estimated growth rates of world manufacturing output
In % compared to the previous quarter and to the same period of the previous year
Quarter IV, 2016 (revised)Compared

Share

Compared

in world MVA

to the previous(2010)

quarter

World

100.0

1.2

3.2

Industrialized Economies

63.3

1.1

1.6

North America

20.6

0.4

0.5

Europe

24.1

1.0

1.8

East Asia

15.3

2.0

3.0

Developing and EIE (by development group)

36.7

1.4

5.4

China

19.8

1.7

6.9

Emerging Industrial Economies

14.7

0.2

0.8

Other Developing Economies

2.0

3.1

14.2

Developing and EIE (by region)

36.7

1.4

5.4

Africa

1.1

1.9

4.4

Asia & Pacific

26.3

1.4

6.6

Latin America

6.5

-0.1

-1.0

Others

2.8

3.2

3.1

to the same
period of theprevious year

Source: UNIDO Statistics
Notes: Not all subgroups are presented; seasonally adjusted data

15

Statistics for Quarter I, 2017

Table 5
Estimated growth rates of output by manufacturing industry
In % compared to the same period of the previous year
Quarter IV, 2016 (revised)
Developingand Emerging

Industrialized

Industrial

Economies

World

Economies
Food products

6.2

1.7

3.6

Beverages

5.6

0.5

2.9

Tobacco products

-1.8

-6.4

-2.8

Textiles

3.6

-0.8

2.5

Wearing apparel

3.7

-4.0

2.1

Leather and related products

2.9

-0.8

2.0

Wood products (excl. furniture)

5.8

2.9

3.9

Paper products

4.5

-0.1

1.8

Printing

3.8

-2.4

-0.8

Coke and refined petroleum products

1.2

1.7

1.5

Chemicals and chemical products

3.6

1.6

2.6

Basic pharmaceutical products

6.6

2.8

4.3

Rubber and plastics products

4.4

1.2

2.4

Other non-metallic mineral products

4.2

2.2

3.3

Basic metals

0.9

1.1

1.0

Fabricated metal products

5.4

0.2

1.8

Computer, electronic and optical products

12.4

3.6

7.0

Electrical equipment

5.5

0.6

2.8

Machinery and equipment

7.6

2.3

4.1

Motor vehicles, trailers, semi-trailers

11.0

3.3

5.9

Other transport equipment

0.0

-0.8

-0.6

Furniture

3.7

0.7

1.8

Other manufacturing

3.8

-0.8

0.5

Total Manufacturing

5.4

1.6

3.2

Source: UNIDO Statistics
Notes: Seasonally adjusted data

16