Original articleRunning head:Relationship between elderly crime and the social welfare system

Statistical relationship between elderly crime and the social welfare system inJapan: Preventative welfare approach for the deterrence of elderly crime
Hiroaki Enoki, Kiyohiko Katahira
Division of Health and Welfare, Graduate School of Health and Welfare, Niigata University of Health and Welfare, Niigata, Japan

Key words : ‌preventative welfare, elderly crime, social welfare provisions, livelihood subsidies, regression
analysis
Article history:
Received: 30 June 2014/Accepted: 23 October 2014

Abstract
The purpose of this study is to verify the
hypothesis that enhancing social welfare
provisions, particularly livelihood subsidies,would have a preventative effect against elderly
crime. This article statistically examines therelationship between the rate of crime committed
by the elderly and the operation of the social
welfare system, mainly in the form of livelihood
subsidies. The elderly crime rate was defined as
the number of arrests of those aged 65 or older
per 100,000 inhabitants aged 65 or older in eachprefecture. The types of crime used as dependent
variables in this study were Penal Code offenses(total), felonious offenses, violent offenses,
larceny offenses, and other Penal Code offenses.
The index of the enhancement of social welfare
system used as independent variables in this study
were Public welfare expenses per inhabitant, thenumber of welfare offices per 100,000
inhabitants, the number of welfare officers per
100,000 inhabitants, and the sufficiency rate ofcaseworkers in each prefecture. Results from
regression analyses show that public welfare
expenses per inhabitant is significantly negatively
correlated with Penal Code offenses (total),felonious offenses, other Penal Code offenses,

and the sufficiency rate of caseworkers is
significantly negatively correlated with Penal
Code offenses (total), felonious offenses, andother Penal Code offenses. These results
corroborate not only preceding statistical studies
that show correlation but also the individual
example investigation that shows direct causality
between the social welfare and the crimes.
Therefore, it is thought that these results werevalid. The hypothesis of this study was supported
from welfare expenses and caseworker’s staffing
points of view.
Introduction
Japan is the most aged country in the world,with an aged population (i.e., the proportion of
those aged 65 years and above in the total
population) of 23% in 2010. The average life
expectancy is 79.5 years for men and 86.9 years
for women, which are the highest rates in theworld.
On the other hand, the number of crimes
committed by the elderly in Japan is also
increasing. For example, the number of arrests of
those aged 65 years or older (excluding
professional negligence resulting in death andinjury) started to increase in 1991 and reached theCorresponding author: Hiroaki Enoki
Division of Health and Welfare, Graduate School of Health and Welfare, Niigata University of Health and Welfare, 1398 Shimami-cho,
Kita-ku, Niigata 950-3198, Japan
TEL/FAX: +81-29-873-2282, E-mail: something1977@yellow.plala.or.jp

48

Niigata Journal of Health and Welfare Vol. 14, No. 1

highest point in 2007. The White Paper on Crime,
published in 2009, calls for empirical studies into
elderly crime, because “a social scientific work isessential in order to bring about a healthy aging
society” [1].
There are many empirical studies on crime in
the area of econometrics, with Backer’s studies assome of the first in this area. His theory of crime
applies economic rationality to criminal behavior,suggesting that human beings behave in such a
way as to maximize personal benefits [2]. For
example, people are more likely to commit acrime when the benefit gained from the crime isjudged to be greater than the risk or cost of beingarrested or punished. According to Backer’s
theory, improving the police’s ability to arrest andimposing stricter punishment should assist in
preventing crime because these will increase theprobability of arrest and punishment, tilting thescale of benefit and risk.
The following highlights some studies on crimein Japan that draw on Backer’s theory. Evans
showed that in regard to the crime rate in Japan,
there is a negative correlation between the
proportion of those working in mining,communications, public utility, and constructionindustries. And a positive correlation between theGini coefficient of employee households and theyouth (over 10 and under 20 years of age) arrest
rate [3]. Park performed a regression analysis of
the rate of occurrence of crimes against social
indices, and found that, in respect to theft androbbery, socio-economic variables such as thestandard of living and gap in wages are
influential, followed by preventative variables
such as the rate of arrest and rate of conviction, as
well as age composition [4-6]. Ohtake andKohara [7] performed an analysis of time-series
data from 1976 to 2008 and panel data by
prefecture from 1975 to 2005 at five-year
intervals. Their time-series data showed that anincrease in the crime rate corresponds to anincreased unemployment rate; likewise, crime

rate decreases as the number of policemen percapita increases. However, this relationship varies
from crime to crime. Their analysis of prefectural
panel data showed that an increase in the poverty
rate exerts more influence on an increase in thecrime rate than an increase in the unemployment
rate. Based on the analysis of both data sets,
Ohtake and Kohara posit that the crime rate isconsistently correlated with labor market
conditions, which are closely related to the costs
or benefits of crime and crime prevention
capabilities such as the police.
These studies focused on labor market
conditions and crime; for example,
unemployment rate as an indicator of social
circumstances of joblessness, in which the cost of
being arrested is decreased. Each study also
adopted the conviction rate, arrest rate, andnumber of police as preventative variables.
Methods to prevent crime, such as
strengthening police ability to arrest andintroduce stricter punishments, are aimed at
isolating criminals from the general population,
most often in jails. In the case of elderly crime inJapan, authorities find it more and more difficult
to deal with the increase of elderly inmates aswell as the high re-offending rate [8]. For thesereasons, in 2011, the Japanese government
launched a project to provide welfare andcommunity support for elderly people who havebeen released from jail. Likewise, in the field oflegal welfare (the studies and practice forsupporting delinquent persons) in Japan, support
for inmates who have completed their term is amajor theme of research [9-10].
The research approach adopted by previous
studies seeking ways to prevent elderly crime is
not conducive to proposing effective solutions forthe social problem of elderly criminality. Social
problems such as crime, illness, and poverty
usually produce reactive solutions (i.e., after the
problems occur), but the best policy is actually
prevention. This is the idea of preventative49

Running head:Relationship between elderly crime and the social welfare system

welfare that Katahira proposes [11-12]. Whilecurrent welfare support, such as the project tosupport community life, is important, the best
course of action is to prevent elderly crime byexamining everyday living conditions of elderly
people and by providing preventative measures.
The Ministry of Justice in Japan has identified
a contributing factor to the increase in elderly
crime: The proportion of those without stable
income and those with low income is increasing,as is the proportion of those with no income or
welfare support such as livelihood subsidies.
Against this background, elderly criminals
experience issues such as economic anxiety,which is a major factor in the increase of elderly
crime [1].
If the aggravating factor of economic anxiety
could be removed, elderly crime could be
prevented. The current safety net for economic
anxiety is social welfare provisions centered on
livelihood subsidies. Accordingly, the expansionof this system would have a preventative effectagainst elderly crime. This hypothesis differsfrom simply strengthening police capability or
introducing stricter punishments as methods ofpreventing crime; rather, this study aims to
examine the preventative effect of social welfare
provisions on elderly crime by drawing on
theories of preventative welfare.
There are very few empirical analyses based on
this framework, and in Japan, there is only one
study by Enoki et al. that has pointed out thestatistically negative correlation between crime
motivated by poverty and the size of welfare
spending per inhabitant [13]. However, like otherpreceding studies, Enoki et al.’s study does not
exclusively focus on elderly crime, so there is aneed to identify if there is a similar correlation inelderly crime specifically. This study also shows
the degree of sufficiency of social welfare
provisions in terms of the budget, though therelationship between the budget and the way
social welfare provisions are run, including the50

size of staff, has not been examined.
The current study, therefore, statisticallyexamines the relationship between elderly crime
and the operation of the social welfare system,
centering on livelihood subsidies.
MethodPublic welfare expenses per inhabitant that
represents the size of welfare spending per
inhabitant in study by Enoki et al. refers to therelationship revealed by cross-sectional researchon data from specific years [13]. This study first
adopted the cross-sectional research method tocarry out a regression analysis on data from
specific years in order to test whether the index
would reveal any correlation with elderly crime.
The year analyzed in this study was 2010, as thiswas the latest statistical year that was not affectedby the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011.
1. Dependent variables
The elderly crime rate, the subject of theanalysis of this study, was defined as the numberof those arrested who were 65 years old or older
per 100,000 inhabitants aged 65 or older by
prefecture. In terms of crime type, Penal Codeoffenses (total, excluding traffic offenses) wereadopted as a dependent variable in order toinvestigate the correlation with elderly crime as awhole. Felonious offenses, violent offenses,
larceny offenses, and other Penal Code offenses
including intrusion upon habitation or Stealing oflost property, which are considered to be closely
related to poverty, were adopted as additional
dependent variables in order to investigate thedifferences crime types.
2. Independent variables
The agency responsible for livelihood subsidies
provisions in Japan is the social welfare office.
Article 14 of the Social Welfare Act of 2000
mandates that prefectures and cities (including
special districts) set up a social welfare office;Niigata Journal of Health and Welfare Vol. 14, No. 1

therefore, it is considered an official agency.
Smaller local authorities such as towns andvillages can set up social welfare offices
voluntarily. This discrepancy in the size of the
population for which a social welfare office is
responsible can affect the accessibility for clients
to social welfare offices, such as between areas
with few social welfare offices and those with agreater number of offices.
In addition to livelihood subsidies, the social
welfare office is the front-line social welfare
provision agency that administers support,
nurturing, and correction in regard to children’s
welfare as well as welfare for mothers andchildren, widows, elderly, and the physically andmentally disabled. According to the law, eachsocial welfare office must have a director as wellas supervisors, caseworkers, and secretaries(Social Welfare Act [15]).
Caseworkers, under the supervision of thedirector, carry out a variety of administrative
duties. These duties include interviewing those
who are in need of some measures of support,
nurturing, or correction, investigating their assets
and social circumstances, determining whether or
not they need some measures of protection orothers—and if that is the case, determining thetype of measures necessary—and providing themwith life guidance (Social Welfare Act [15]Section 4). In other words, caseworkers in Japanare authorized to carry out personal investigations
and make decisions regarding cash benefits
received, as well as to provide support for theclients of social welfare system to live
independently.
Article 16 of the Social Welfare Act stipulates
that a social welfare office run by the city should
post one caseworker per 80 households in receipt
of livelihood subsidies for a social welfare officerun by a city, and that a social welfare office runby the prefecture should have one caseworker per
65 households subsidies for an office. The
sufficiency rate of caseworkers refers to the

proportion of the actual number of caseworkers in
relation to the standard figure. The higher thenumber of welfare officers per 100,000
inhabitants and/or the sufficiency rate of thecaseworkers, the better staffed the social welfare
office is.
The following independent variables are usedin this study to measure the degree of sufficiency
of social welfare provision. Public welfare
expenses per inhabitant is used as an index ofsufficiency of the welfare budget by prefecture, as
identified in preceding studies; the number of
welfare offices per 100,000 inhabitants as anindex of accessibility to the social welfare office;the number of welfare officers per 100,000
inhabitants as an index of sufficiency of staffing
levels; and the sufficiency rate of caseworkers.
Table 1 shows the definition of these variables
and sources of data and Table 2 provides
descriptive statistics.
3. Analyses
A simple correlation analysis was done prior to
the regression analysis. Furthermore, in order toprevent multicollinearity, the correlation
coefficient between each independent variable
was worked out and when there was more than a
0.7 correlation, one of the independent variables
was removed from the analysis. As a result, inrespect to correlation among independent
variables, the public welfare expenses per
inhabitant, the number of welfare offices per
100,000 inhabitants, and the number of welfare
officers per 100,000 inhabitants showed acorrelation of 0.7 and above (Table 3). As such, in
accordance with the aim of the study, publicwelfare expenses per inhabitant and thesufficiency rate of caseworkers were used as
independent variables for the regression analysis.
In order to see each variable’s influence, theforced entry method was used in the regression
analysis. PASW Statistics 18 was used forcomputations and analyses.

51

Running head:Relationship between elderly crime and the social welfare system

Table 1. Definition of variables and sources of data
Variables

Definition
The arrest staff of each prefecture (65 years or older)a÷Basic Resident Register population of eachprefecture (65 years or older)b
×100,000

Dependent Variable

Crime rate of elderly people
Penal Code offenses (total),
Felonious offenses,
Violent offenses,
Larceny offenses,
Other Penal Code offenses

Independent Variable

Public welfare costs of prefecturesc
Public welfare expenses per inhabitant ÷Basic Resident Register population of eachprefectureb
× 100,000
The number of welfare offices
The number of welfare offices of each prefectured÷Basic Resident Register population of eachper 100,000 inhabitants
prefectureb
× 100,000
The number of welfare officers
The number of welfare officeres of each prefecturee÷Basic Resident Register population of eachper 100,000 inhabitants
prefectureb
× 100,000
The sufficiency rate of caseworkers
The proportion of the actual number of caseworkers
in relation to the standard figured

Notes : a Criminal statistic in 2010. National Police Agency-Japan- ; 2011. Available from : https://www.
npa.go.jp/archive/toukei/keiki/h22/h22hanzaitoukei.htm (accessed June 18, 2014) (in Japanese)b
Population based on the Basic Resident Register and the number of households. The Ministry of Internal
Affairs and Communications ; 2011. Available from : http://www.soumu.go.jp/menu_news/
s-news/01gyosei02_01000001.html (accessed June 18, 2014) (in Japanese)c
Prefectures’ settlement of accounts situation investigation. The Ministry of Internal Affairs andCommunications ; 2011. Available from : http://www.soumu.go.jp/iken/zaisei/h22_todohuken.html(accessed June 18, 2014) (in Japanese)dWelfare office present situation investigation. The Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare ; 2011.
Available from : http://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/list/75-16.html (accessed June 18, 2014) (in Japanese)
Table 2. Descriptive statistics
Variablesn

Minimum Maximum

Mean

SD

Dependent Variable (Crime rate of elderly people)
Y1: Penal Code offenses (total)
Y2: Felonious offenses
Y3: Violent offenses
Y4: Larceny offenses
Y5: Other Penal Code offenses

47
47
47
47
47

104.2
2.1
1.9
69.8
3.1

220.5
797.1
23.6
180.5
54.8

156.7
88.0
11.6
120.2
18.8

31.4
173.6
5.1
23.1
14.4

47
47

0.0
0.2

0.1
2.9

0.1
1.1

0.0
0.5

47

27.0

135.0

59.7

22.1

47

73.2

170.6

111.2

21.2

Independent Variable
X1: Public welfare expenses per inhabitant
X2: The number of welfare offices
per 100,000 inhabitants
X3: The number of welfare officers
per 100,000 inhabitants
X4: The sufficiency rate of caseworkers

52

Niigata Journal of Health and Welfare Vol. 14, No. 1

Table 3. Zero order correlation of independent variables

Independent
Variables

X1

X2

X3

X4

X1

-

71a

75a

10

a

75

29b

a

X2

71

-

X3

75a

75a

-

15

10

b

15

-

X4
a

29

b

Notes: p<0.01; P<0.05
X1: Public welfare expenses per inhabitant
X2: The number of welfare offices
per 100,000 inhabitants
X3: The number of welfare officers
per 100,000 inhabitants
X4: The sufficiency rate of caseworkers

Results
The simple correlation analysis showed that
there was a statistically significant negative
correlation between public welfare expenses per
inhabitant, the number of welfare offices per
100,000 inhabitants, the number of welfare
officers per 100,000 inhabitants and Penal Codeoffenses (total), felonious offenses, violent
offenses and other Penal Code offenses. In
addition, the sufficiency rate of caseworkers
showed a statistically significant negative
correlation with Penal Code offenses (total),felonious offenses, and other Penal Code offenses(Table 4).
The regression analysis showed that there wasa statistically significant negative correlation
between public welfare expenses per inhabitantand Penal Code offenses (total) (β = -0.317),
felonious offenses (β = -0.368), other Penal Codeoffenses (β = -0.511), and between the sufficiency
rate of caseworkers and Penal Code offenses(total) (β = -0.337), felonious offenses (β =-0.368) and other Penal Code offenses (β =-0.422) (Table 5). Even in the simple correlation
analysis, a statistically significant correlation wasshown among these variables and none werereversed. In each analysis, the ANOVA (analysis
of variance table) result was statisticallysignificant. In addition, no variable exceeded 10
in terms of VIF (Variance Inflation Factor) tosuggest multicollinearity.
Discussion
The hypothesis of this study is that enhancing
social welfare provisions, particularly livelihood
subsidies, would have a preventative effectagainst elderly crime. For the inspection of thishypothesis we focus on both variables of publicwelfare expenses per inhabitant and thesufficiency rate of caseworkers which showedsatistically significant negative correlation withelderly crime in this study and perform thereasoning about larceny offenses that was
expected to show statistically significant negative
correlation with elderly crime.
1. Public welfare expenses per inhabitantThis study found that welfare spending per
inhabitant has a negative correlation with Penal
Code offenses (total) and felonious offenses,

53

Running head:Relationship between elderly crime and the social welfare system

Table 4. Zero order correlation of all variables

Variables

Y1

Y2

Y3

Y4

Y5

X1

X2

X3

X4

Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4
Y5
X1
X2
X3
X4

37b
58b
83b
58b
-35a
-46b
-29a
-37a

24
-04
78b
-40b
-52b
-44b
-41b

29a
42b
-29a
-55b
-40b
-13

06
-07
-11
07
-13

-55b
-59b
-61b
-47b

71b
75b
10

75b
29a

15

-

a

b

Notes: p<0.01; P<0.05
Y1: Penal Code offenses (total)
Y2: Felonious offenses
Y3: Violent offenses
Y4: Larceny offenses
Y5: Other Penal Code offenses
X1 :Public welfare expenses per inhabitant
X2: The number of welfare offices
per 100,000 inhabitants
X3: The number of welfare officers
per 100,000 inhabitants
X4: The sufficiency rate of caseworkers

Table 5. The results of multiple linear regression analysis
Variables

Y1: Penal Code offenses (total)β

95% CI

Y2: Felonious offenses
β

95% CI

X1: Public welfare-0.317aexpenses per inhabitant-1611.926 , -138.617 -0.368b

X4: The sufficiency rate
-0.337aof caseworkers-0.896 , -0.104

R

0.48

-0.376b

Y5: Other Penal Code offenses
β-9493.597 , -1721.018 -0.511b-5.171 , -0.992
0.55-0.422b

95% CI-923.294 , -368.408-0.436 , -0.137
0.69

Notes: CI = confidence intervalaP<0.01; bP<0.05.

which is consistent with the findings of precedingstudies by Enoki et al. and Park that use similarvariables.
The index of public welfare expenses per
inhabitant in the study by Enoki et al showed astatistically negative correlation with the type of54

crime motivated by poverty (i.e., felonious
offenses, larceny offenses, other Penal Codeoffenses) in the cross-sectional study of thestatistical year of 2005 [13]. Park’s study, inwhich a time-series regression analysis of thecrime rate in Japan was conducted in the area of

Niigata Journal of Health and Welfare Vol. 14, No. 1

econometrics, uses a variable called “social
wage.” This is defined as “the proportion of social
security spending in relation to national income.”
Park assumes that an increase in social welfare
spending correlates to a more equal distributionof income, and the variable’s direct effect on
crime rate would be negative. Park’s regression
analysis showed that there is a statisticallynegative correlation between this variable andrape, murder, and violence [4-6]. Our result
mentioned above corroborates previous studies
using similar variables.
A statistical correlation does not indicate directcausality. So the correlation was considered with
empirical studies. The empirical study on a
Ministry of Justice survey of elderly criminals
and inmates reported that 37.8% of respondents
described their situation before being jailed as “Iwanted to work but could not find any” or “I
could not work because of illnesses.” Similarly,
55.9% said they had “difficulties in everyday life”
in terms of finance. They were also listed asfactors for committing the crime (s) that led totheir incarceration as “it was difficult to makeends meet” (24.6%) and “I did not have anywork” (23.0%). When focusing on the perceptionof elderly inmates who committed murder, which
was categorized as a felonious offense thatshowed a negative correlation with welfare
spending per inhabitant, the response “it wasdifficult to make ends meet” occupied 23% [14].
The circumstances these elderly criminals identify
as difficult and as factors for committing crime
can be tackled by social welfare provisions that
focus on livelihood subsidies. With the empirical
study on Ministry of Justice survey of elderly
criminals and inmates suggests that thecorrelation found in the study is considered valid.
2. The sufficiency rate of caseworkers
Next, the sufficiency rate of caseworkers wasconsidered. The sufficiency rate of caseworkers isbased on the actual number of caseworkers who

handle households in receipt of livelihood. The
regression analysis in this study showed that in anarea with a high sufficiency rate of caseworkers,
the number of crimes committed by the elderly issmall. Conversely, in an area with a low
sufficiency of caseworkers the crime ratecommitted by the elderly would be high.
Morikawa et al.’s [15] survey suggested that a
low sufficiency rate is linked to the feelings ofburden by a caseworkers, too much work, andinsufficiency in providing assistance for increased
independence. Morikawa et al. carried out asurvey in 2003 with caseworkers from all social
welfare offices in Japan regarding “the feelings ofburden towards the work in general” and “selfevaluation of assistance for increased
independence.” A cross-tabulation of the numberof cases a caseworker was responsible for (i.e.,
the number of households to look after) and the
feelings of burden of work—from four choices:“very burdensome,” “rather burdensome,” “notthat much,” and “not a burden at all”—showedthat the proportion of the total of “not that much”
and “not a burden at all” was 19.2% if the numberof cases was 50 or below, but 10% if the number
was more than 51. The proportion of “veryburdensome” was 24.7% when the number ofcases was 50 or below, and 46.1% when thenumber of cases was 91 or more. When the
respondents who said “very burdensome,” “rather
burdensome,” and “not that much” were asked tochoose two reasons from the following sevenoptions—“the case is complex,” “too muchwork,” “no time,” “lack of expertise,” “the work
is not suitable for me,” “inappropriate
supervision,” and “other”—the most frequentanswer was “the case is very complex,”
regardless of the degree of feelings of burden. In
contrast, the response “too much work” waschosen more frequently as the feelings of burden
increased. This suggests a perceived relationshipamong the number of cases, the feelings ofburden among the caseworker, and too much

55

Running head:Relationship between elderly crime and the social welfare system

work. In the case of self-evaluation with regard to
the caseworker’s assistance with increased
independence, the major reason for thinking“insufficient” was not enough commitment due totoo many cases to handle. Understaffing of social
welfare offices has been seen as a problem to besolved in the Diet (Japanese government) as well[16]. More assistance for increased independence
is sought to allay the burden felt by the increasein the number of households in receipt of
livelihood subsidies, as well as the government’s
financial problems [17]. This suggests theimportance of appropriate staffing in order to run
a sufficient social welfare system.
On the other hand, the empirical study on a
Ministry of Justice survey of elderly criminals
and inmates has identified needs of elderly
criminals who face a number of welfare problems.
For example, 35.2% of respondents to a Ministryof Justice survey said that they did not haveanyone to talk to about their difficulties andworries [14]. It is possible likely that if
caseworkers in an area with a high sufficiency
rate of caseworkers in charge of livelihood
subsidies could talk more to the elderly person
who has difficulties and worries, the crime could
be prevented through a combination of living
guidance and livelihood subsidies as a result.
The statistical correlation in this study can beconsidered consistent, given that the feelings ofburden and assistance for increased independence
vary according to the number of households forwhich caseworkers are responsible, and thatelderly criminals did not have caseworkers to talkto despite having difficulties in life.
3. Larceny offenses and Embezzlement of lostarticles in other Penal Code offenses
It was thought that larceny offenses wascorrelated with elderly crime which is related tothe economical poverty as a matter of course. But
it did not show statistically significant negative
correlation with public welfare expenses per

56

inhabitant and the sufficiency rate of caseworkers.
The reason of this result is considered as follows:
Other Penal Code offenses which is the othercrime type in this study was correlated withpublic welfare expenses per inhabitant and thesufficiency rate of caseworkers. This crime typeincludes Embezzlement of lost articles (83.9%).
This crime is common with larceny offenses at apoint to steal the property of others. Nevertheless,this crime is distinguished from larceny offenses
and classified to other Penal Code offenses in thedefinition of the criminal law in Japan. As a result
the number of larceny offenses are decreased.
Thus, it is assumed that the result in this study
shows no statistically significant correlation. We
have to continue investigating this problem infuture.
Conclusions
The index of public welfare expenses per
inhabitant can serve as a variable that is expected
to prevent an elderly crime. And the result in thisstudy shows the negative correlation between thesufficiency rate of caseworkers and crime, which
has not been clarified in previous studies, both
statistically and in terms of a literature review.
Therefore, it is suggested that the study’s
hypothesis that enhancing social welfare
provisions, particularly livelihood subsidies,would have a preventative effect against elderly
crime is partly supported from welfare expenses
and caseworker’s staffing points of view.
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