Promotion of EV Deployment:
Overseas Cases & Japanese Cases
As Viewed From Abroad
07 February 2014 | EV and PHV Town Symposium | Okinawa, JapanDr. David Beeton
Director, Urban ForesightAGENDA
WHERE ARE WE TODAY?
WHERE WOULD WE LIKE TO BE?
HOW DO WE GET THERE?
OUTLOOKWHEREARE WETODAY?

Year of...

Characterised by...

HIBERNATION

EVs were only a minority activity for governments and automakers. Biofuels
and hydrogen arguably enjoyed greater prominence and attention.

IGNITION

The economic downturn hit automakers hard and encouraged theacceleration of electrification R&D as the closest-to-market technology toreinvent the fortunes of an ailing sector.

PARTNERSHIPSAs the complexity of preparing for the introduction of EVs became clear,collaborative EV programmes were initiated to combine the expertise ofgovernments, OEMs, utilities, cities, regions and technology suppliers.

2010

PILOTS

Data and findings from pilots emerged from major cities and pioneering
regions around the world, informing both the development of vehicles andcharging infrastructure systems.

2011

EXPECTATION

The anticipated arrival of cars culminated in global demand appearing tooutstrip supply.

2012

QUESTIONS

The first full year when anyone could buy an EV encouraged questions
about the prospects for the technology and a focus on apparent limitations.

2013

PENDULUM

Notable early market successes were tempered by persistent concerns
over perceived barriers and belief that market uptake should be more rapid.

2007
2008

2009

RIDING THE HYPE CYCLE
Gartner’s Hype Cycle
2011
2014

2010
Peak ofinflated
expectations

Expectations

Plateau ofproductivity

2009

Slope ofenlightenment
Trough ofdisillusionment

2008
Technologytrigger

Valley of death2007Maturity

BARRIERS TO ADOPTION•High purchase cost•

Lifespan of batteries•

Limited range of EVs and range
anxiety•

Capacity of local distribution networks•

Backing the wrong technology•

Green credentials•

Lack of allocated parking for domestic
recharging•

Lack of aftersales support networks•

Business models•

Risk of lack of standardisation andinteroperability•

End of life of batteries•

Availability of recharging
infrastructure•

Ability to value whole-life runningcosts of vehicles•

Residual value•

Lack of public awareness andknowledge•

Aversion to new technology•Performance and choice of vehicles

CREATING DEMAND
Moving beyond the pilots& demonstrations

Demand Pull

Preparing for mass
marketing

2014

Fully commercial
Supportedcommercialisation
Demonstrationscale projects
Pilot-scale projects
Applied researchTechnology Push

2.0

3.0

WHEREWOULD WE
LIKE TO BE?

1. RECOGNISE THE NEED TO CHANGE
2. MAKE IT ACTIONABLE
3. MAKE IT PERMANANT

CLIMATE CHANGE

2DS

4DS

6DS

a vision of a sustainableenergy system of reduced
Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
and CO2 emissions

reflecting pledges bycountries to cutemissions and boost
energy efficiencywhere the world is now
heading with potentiallydevastating results

The 2°C Scenario

The 4°C Scenario

The 6°C Scenario

GROWTH IN GLOBAL EV STOCK
40,000 at start of 2012 (IEA, 2012)
20 million required by 2020 (IEA, 2012)20142013
20162020
20122019
20172015
2018x2

DIRECT HEALTH IMPACTS

EUROPEANPAPERS
COMMISSION’SAMBITION
PHASE OUT ALL
CONVENTIONALLY FUELLED
VEHICLES FROM URBANENVIRONMENTS BY 2050
& HALF BY 2030.

NOT ABOUT COMPETITIONEFFICIENT ICE

ELECTRICHYDROGENBIOFUELSREALISTIC ABOUT TIMESCALES
Passenger Light DutyVehicle sales (million)

IEA (2012)

200

FCEV
Electricity

150

Plug-in hybrid diesel
Plug-in hybrid gasoline

100
Diesel hybrid
Gasoline hybrid

50
CNG/LPG

02000

Diesel

2010

2020

2030
Year

2040

2050

GasolineEVs CAN MAKE CITIES SMARTER
Support more
renewables

New andimproved
mobility
systems

Mobility

Energydemandmanagement

Reduce environmental impact

EconomyGreen growth

EnergySystems

ElectricVehicle
Ecosystems

Communities

Built
environment

PublicServices

Positive
behaviourchanges

Sustainable economic growth
Improved living conditions

Intelligent
infrastructureMOBILITY
Movement of people and goods around cities
Not justabout cars

• Two-wheelers• Intermodal transport• Buses• Delivery vehicles• TaxisIntegrated
transport• Journey planning• Integrated ticketing• Shared back offices• Dynamic insurance• Reducing km driven Sustainable• Traffic congestion• Road pricing

transport• Safety• Navigation• Social wellbeing• Route planning Intelligent• e-Payment• Eco driving

Transport
Systems• Location-based
advertising

Newbusinessmodels• Car pooling

Connectedvehicles• Entertainment• Productivity• Functionality

ELECTRIC CAR SHARING IN PARIS
1,700 SHARED EVs IN AUTOLIB’ TODAYENERGY SYSTEMSGreater control over generation and demand for electricity
Not just about grid impact
Smart and controlled charging of EVs• Off-peak demand• Spinning reserve

Mobile energy supply (V2G and V2H)
• Pricing signals and demand forecasting• Technical standards and safety regulation

Reduced need for grid expansion and augmentation

EV “WIND TWINNING” IN
DENMARK

Energyconsumption

16:00

20:00

Midnight

04:00

08:00

12:00

BUILT ENVIRONMENT
Advanced technology & energy systems in the built environment
Incentivising on-site renewablesHome Area Networks and the Connected Car
Smart metering
Building codes and regulations

HOME ENERGY STORAGE IN JAPANPUBLIC SERVICES
New ways of delivering public services and commercial offerings
Public-private partnerships
Clean vehicle procurement policies
Supporting skills and services
New models of ownership
Financial services
End of life

MUNICIPAL VEHICLES INBARCELONASMART COMMUNITIES
Education and engagement to promote positive transformations
Public awareness and confidence
Science, technology, engineering and maths
Positive behaviours
New ways of valuing costs

ELECTRIC AVENUE: PORTLAND,USAECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES
Sustainable economic growth

BIG OPPORTUNITIES FORISLANDS

EVs and Tourism

Securing the future of the U.S.
state with highest oil
dependence & energy prices

HOW
DO WE
GET THERE?

POLICYFRAMEWORKSSUSTAINABLE
TRANSPORTCOMMUNICATION& EDUCATIONMARKET
DEVELOPMENTECONOMICOPPORTUNITY

RECHARGINGENERGYSYSTEMSWHAT CAN GOVERNMENT DO?
PUBLIC SECTOR LEADERSHIPOUTREACH &EDUCTAIONPOLICYFRAMEWORKS

INCENTIVES

COMM. &EDUCATIONSUSTAINABLE
TRANSPORTMARKET
DEVELOPMENTECONOMICOPPORTUNITY

RECHARGINGSTRATEGICINVESTMENTS

MOBILISING KEY
STAKEHOLDERS

ENERGYSYSTEMSFACTORS INFLUENCINGADOPTIONCROSS-CUTTINGOBJECTIVES FOR
GOVERNMENTOUTLOOK

Year of...

Characterised by...

2014

NORMALISATION It will no longer be a novelty to have driven or indeed own an EV.

2015

VARIETY

2016

2ND GENERATION Sales are boosted by redesigned and reinvented EV models.

2017

INDEPENDENCE

EVs will need to survive in a world with fewer public subsidies andincentives.

2018

FUNCTIONALITY

Common standards, innovative technologies and ancillary services
make using an EV fun and aspirational.

2019

VALUE

Developments in EV technologies and consumer awareness maketotal cost of ownership of EVs an attractive proposition to many
more fleet managers and new car buyers.

2020

TAKE-OFFThe point at which the trajectory of EVs becomes clear.

Multiple OEMs mass producing a range of different EV models thatare manufactured specifically for different global markets.

CLOSING
THOUGHTS.

WHERE ARE WE TODAY?

WE’VE MADE SUBSTANTIAL
PROGRESS.

www.worldevcities.org

www.ieahev.org...BUT NEED TO BE PATIENTHOW DO WE MOVE FORWARD?

NEED INTEGRATED ANDCOMPREHENSIVE ACTION

WHERE WOULD WE LIKE TO BE?

EVs MAKE CITIES SMARTER
AND SUSTAINABLE.

NOMINATE A PROJECT OR INITIATIVEFOR NEW EV CITY CASEBOOK

urbanforesight.org/casebook.html

THANK YOU
Dr. David Beeton
Director | Urban Foresight Limited
Newcastle upon Tyne | United Kingdom
david.beeton@urbanforesight.org
twitter: @dbeeton
www.urbanforesight.org
twitter: @UrbanForesight