A Method of Generating Societal Vision basedon Social Systems Theory
Norihiko Kimura1, Haruka Mori, Yuzuki Oka, Wataru Murakami, Rio Nitta,
and Takashi Iba

Abstract In this paper, we propose a method of generating societal vision basedon the social systems theory. When trying to cause innovation to future society bysome kind of new technology, we must have a vision of how the technology will
spread to society and change it. Even though such a future vision is necessary forinnovation, it is quite difficult to imagine that a new technology spreading to andinfluence whole society, because of highly complex and opaque of society. In order to cause innovation and design better future, some frameworks to understandsocietal whole are necessary. In this paper, we first refer to some existing methods
for thinking about the future, and indicate how they are not appropriate to our research question due to the lack of framework to understand whole society. Secondly, in order to get the framework, we refer to the social systems theory thatconsiders society as an autopoietic system whose elements are communication, get
the perspective of understanding modern society as a set of functionally differentiated systems, and also refer to the functional method to analyze the social systems.
Then, based on the theory, we propose a method of generating societal visions,and also show the worksheet that is used to practice the method, through thiswork, we enable to imagine the influence of the innovation to various areas outside the target domain of the innovation. Because the worksheet considers the
network of functional systems of society, we could draw the vision under the consideration of the network of functional systems and its change, and imagine thespreading of the innovation.

1. Introduction
Since the beginning of the 21st century, many kinds of technological innovation
have been generated in various fields. When trying to cause innovation to futuresociety by some kind of new technology, we must have an image or vision of how
N. Kimura1 • H. Mori2 • Y. Oka3 • W. Murakami2 • R. Nitta2 • T. Iba2
1
Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University, Japan
2
Faculty of Policy Management, Keio University, Japan
3
Faculty of Environment and Information Studies, Keio University, Japane-mail: nkimura@sfc.keio.ac.jp; iba@sfc.keio.ac.jp

2

the technology will spread to society and change it. If the image or vision is attractive and persuasive, we can pursue an innovation based on the vision, and gather
collaborators or funds. Even though such a future vision is necessary for innovation, it is quite difficult to imagine that a new technology spreading to and influence whole society. Because modern society is highly complex and opaque, it can
only imagine the change around the technology or its domain, and cannot imagine
how the technology changes whole society. In such situation, some frameworks tounderstand the society are necessary in order to capture the society and design better future society.
In this context, this research proposes the method of generating future vision
with understanding society, referring to social systems theory of, which has abundant concepts, frameworks and theories to grasping complex society.

2. Studies About the Methods of Thinking Future
There are some methods of predicting and thinking about the future in several
fields.
In the field of organization management, there is a method called Scenario
Planning. In this method, managers set two axes of the scenario, which will causechanges in future, consider the extreme situation of each axis, and then combine
them to create multiple scenarios (Heijden et al., 2002). The organizations use thismethod to formulate their business strategy in preparation for those scenarios.
In the field of design, future-oriented design methodologies such as Speculative
Design and Design Fiction are proposed. Speculative design is the method thatconsiders designing "as a means of speculating how things could be" and inspires"people's imaginations to flow feely". In this method, designers design some futuristic products, and based on them, debate and think about the future what people
really want with audiences (Dunne and Raby, 2013). Similarly, design fiction is
the method of exploring the future by writing the fiction in which there are somefuturistic products that do not currently exist (Sterling, 2009; Bosch, 2012).
We have also developed and practiced the method called Future Language thatmakes the visions of desired future into words (Iba, 2016; Kimura et al., 2016).
Future Language consists of Future Words, which are vocabularies written about
the desired future. Through making these words, this method enables us to talkabout the future and share the vision in the communities.
These methods are meaningful to discuss the future and to decide how organizations and communities should behave based on the foreseen future. However,
although those methods could draw the visions around products and technologies,
or the organizations and communities, those are not suited to draw the 'societal' visions, because those methods don't provide us the framework to understand thesociety in its entirety. What we want to have in this complex society is societal visions, not only visions just around technologies or communities.

3

Therefore, referring to the social system theory by the sociologist Niklas Luhmann, we will extract the framework to understand the societal wholeness, andbased on it, propose a method to generate future vision of a society.

3. Social Systems Theory
In this research, in order to extract the framework to understand the whole society,
we refer to social systems theory, proposed by Niklas Luhmann. The theory considers society as an autopoietic system whose element is communication, andmodern society as a set of functional systems. And in order to analyze the society,we also refer to his functional method.

3.1 Social Systems
Luhmann was a sociologist who applied the system theory of autopoiesis to sociology, to tackle the fundamental question of "how society is possible."
System theory of autopoiesis is advocated in biology, which defines a system
as the network of the recursive production process of the elements (Maturana,1981). Luhmann generalized this theory and applied it to his own sociology as thesocial systems theory; the theory considers society as an autopoietic system whose
element is communication. Communication, in this theory, is not understood as atransfer-model, but as a triple selection, that is a selection of information, utterance, and understanding (Luhmann, 1984). Since communication, elements of autopoietic social systems, are events that vanish instantly, the continuous recursive
re-production of communication is all-important to social systems: since the autopoietic systems are close in operational level, they cannot procure their elementsfrom the environment, including other systems, that is, the systems need to selfreproduction of their own elements.
Luhmann emphasized that autopoietic system theory reformulated the central
problem of system theory from difference between whole and part to system differentiation and built it into the new paradigm (Luhmann, 1984): the former sees asystem as composed of a certain number of parts and the relations among them,which means, only sees the inside of a system; the latter considers a system as thedifference between system and its environment, which means, in order to generate
and maintain a system, the system need to continue to make a difference from its
environment and other systems by re-producing its own elements constantly. According to Luhmann,"System differentiation is nothing more than the repetition within systems of thedifference between system and environment." (Luhmann, 1984)

4

For instance, in order to generate and maintain a social system, it needs to bedifferentiated from the psychic system whose element is consciousness by reproducing communication constantly.
Luhmann distinguished social systems in three types: interactions, organizations, and societies (Fig. 1) (Luhmann, 1984). He especially explored the type ofsocieties that is the sum of all communication.

Fig. 1. Three types of social systems

3.2 Modern Society as a Set of Functionally Differentiated Systems
According to Luhmann, human society has had several societal structures to formsocial order; and he defined the structure of modern society as the functionally differentiated society.
The functionally differentiated society is the society divided into subsystems
that fulfill necessary specific functions for society; for example, politics, economics, law, science, art, religion, education, etc. (Fig. 2): one of the authors, Iba, suggests to add co-creation system in previous research, as the vision of creative society (Iba, 2016).
Each functional system is differentiated from the societies-system; and eachsystem has its own way to re-produce continuous communication to maintain its
autopoietic system, in other words, to continue to distinguish from its environment(including other systems), so that it is quite probable that each system differentiates from the whole society. As we see above, a system can only exist when it has
difference from the environment. In order to maintain its own communication system, each system has specific function to society, communication media, binarycode, and programs (Table 1).
As we see above, each functional system has specific function that is necessary
for society; for instance, the function of politics system is procuring the capacity
to enforce collectively building decisions, and the function of economics system isensuring future supply under the condition of scarcity (Luhmann, 1998; Luhmann,
1988) (Table 1, second column).

5

In order to fulfill these functions and maintain nexus of communications, functional systems have each communication media. Communication media provides
support to increase probability of communications, such as power in politics system or money in economics system (Luhmann, 1998; Luhmann, 1988) (Table 1,
third column).
And also, functional systems have each own binary code, two-sided form (positive side and negative side, like A/not-A) as a way to describe society, in order tostructure communication, such as government/opposition in politics system andpayment/not-payment in economics system (Luhmann, 1998; Luhmann, 1988)(Table 1; fourth column).
In order to assign each target to a positive side or a negative side of the binarycode, functional systems have programs. Programs express the decision rules tostructure communication code, such as manifests, constitutions and elections inpolitics system or prices and investment programs in economics system (Luhmann, 1998; Luhmann, 1988) (Table 1, fifth column).
Understanding society as functionally differentiated systems means thatmodern society "has no central agency" (Luhmann, 1981); that is, the society is
de-centered and "there is no central perspective from to which to observe social
phenomena" (Borch, 2011). Therefore, when analyzing and solving social problems, it is necessary for each functional system to present its own solution basedon its function and communication.

Fig. 2. The functionally differentiated society

6

Table 1. Examples of functional systems
Functional System Function

Media

Code

Politics

Procuring the capacity
to enforce collectively
building decisions

Power

Government/opposition Manifests,
constitutions
election

Economics

Ensuring future supply Moneyunder the condition of
scarcity

Payment/not-payment

ProgramPrices, investment programs

3.3 The Functional Method
Analyzing society by social systems theory, Luhmann adopts the functional method. The functional method is the method used in anthropology and sociology; thefunctional method of Luhmann is characterized as equivalent functionalism and is
the method analyzing actual solution of some social issue, and seeking and comparing another still virtually and functionally equivalent alternatives. The equivalent functional method emphasizes seeing actual solutions are contingent andcomparing possible functionally alternative ways to solve problem, not just to
clarify the linkage between the cause and the result of the societal problem, likeprevious functional method. According to Luhmann,"The relation between the problem and its solution will thus not be grasp for its own sake;rather, it serves as a connecting thread to questions about other possibilities, as aconnecting thread in the search for functional equivalences." (Luhmann, 1984)

The equivalent functional method (i) establishes an abstract problem for comparison = functional reference point, and (ii) define range of functionally equivalent and substitutable alternatives to solve problems = equivalent area (Luhmann,1970) (Fig. 3). The functional method is namely a comparative method; that is, themethod is a heuristic way to shift our attention to the actual solution to still virtual
better different solutions.
According to Luhmann, functional method will be effective if using it with system theory, because the system limits the possibilities of choices (Luhmann,1970). If there are no limits, the functional reference points could be defined arbitrarily and the possibilities of equivalent alternatives within the equivalent area areinfinite. Referencing a system, we could define the functional reference points as
the problem of maintaining the system, and think of other solutions within limited

7

equivalent area that are possible ways only in the system. This means, if there aresome societal problems, each functionally differentiated system thinks the solutions and handles them within the limited range, within own system, then, if necessary, we could compare each solutions and choose a better one: in other words,
in modern society, there is no choice but to do so (Luhmann, 1986).

Fig. 3. The equivalent functional method (O = functional reference point, X = equivalent area,
A-D = functionally equivalent alternatives)

4. Vision Generation Method
Based on the social system theory, we propose a method to draw visions of futuresociety. In the following, we will introduce the method and the worksheet usingthat method, which is currently being created.

4.1 Generate Functionally Equivalent Alternatives
Paraphrasing the perspective we see in previous section into drawing societal vision, what we need to do is to present the visions based on the functions andcommunication of each functionally differentiated system. Drawing visions of decentered modern society will be possible by analyzing the problem from the viewpoint of each functional system, drawing each vision, comparing and integratingthem. The equivalent functional method such as finding functional equivalents is
effective for analyzing and generating new idea of each system.
However, there remains the question of how to discover new functional equivalents. Though generating ideas based on the present societal premises and existing
technologies, it is not certain whether the ideas could apply in future. In the rapidly changing future society, it is necessary to consider solutions (functional equivalent alternatives) that are not still actualized.

8

Therefore, in this research, we propose a method of generating functional
equivalent alternatives by expanding the equivalent area based on new technologies (Fig. 4): in other words, this method aims to make us suppose the expanded
equivalent area, and, based on the new generated equivalent alternatives, draw thevisions of future society. But without anything, the equivalent area could not be
expanded; so that, some factors are required to triggers that expand the equivalentarea where are the possible virtual solutions. The factors mean, for example, newtechnologies, tools or philosophy etc., and being opened to those who use thismethod. Selecting the factors, and expanding the equivalent area, then we cangenerate the ideas.
Therefore, the process of this method we propose in this research is following:(1) suppose the social systems whose element is nexus of communications, (2) assign a certain functional system, (3) analyze and list up current actual functional
equivalent alternatives need to maintain the system, (4) select some factors to expand their equivalent areas and generate new idea of functionally equivalent alternatives, (5) based on the ideas, draw the vision from the perspective of the functional system. Then, (6) repeat this process in other functional systems, and (7)draw whole societal vision by comparing and integrating the each system’s visions(Fig.5).

Fig. 4. Expanding equivalent area by new technologies (O = functional reference point, X =equivalent area, A-D = functionally equivalent alternatives, T = some new technologies, E =generated new functionally equivalent alternatives, new ideas)

9Fig. 5. The process of Vision Generation Method

4.2 Vision Generation Worksheet
We are now developing a worksheet, which applies this method to use in workshops; we call it 'vision generation worksheet'. Each worksheet corresponds toeach functional system. Participants of the workshop proceed on the steps abovefrom (1) to (5) in one sheet, draw the vision of the system, then change anotherworksheet, another system. Working on each sheet, each system, we could compare and integrate the visions from each system's viewpoint, then, we could get thevision of societal wholeness.
Below, as an example of the worksheet, we show the vision generation worksheet of the politics system (Fig. 6).

10

Fig. 6. Vision Generation Worksheet of politics system

5. Conclusion
In this paper, we proposed the method of generating the societal visions based onsocial systems theory that provide us the framework to understand society and to
generate idea, and also presented worksheets that apply the method to use inworkshops. So far, we have just developed only two worksheets, corresponding topolitics system and economics system; in future research, we will develop otherworksheets, corresponding to other functional systems that Luhmann presents, forinstance, law system, science system, education system, mass media system, etc.
Through this work, what we aim at is to be able to imagine the influence of theinnovation spreading over various areas outside the target domain of the innovation. An innovation is not only change its main domain; for instance, the technological innovation of autonomous cars will, of course, change the future of driving
and traffic, but also, the change will cause the change of law system and economics system, and the change of law and economics systems will influence politics
system and other systems, because, the functional systems of society are mutually
influential and constitute a network of functional systems (Fig. 7). The change in asystem will influence the other systems through the network. In the systems theory, the mutual influence between the systems called structural coupling. By those11

worksheets, we could draw the vision under the consideration of the network offunctional systems and its change, and imagine the spreading of the innovation.

Fig. 7. The network of the functional systems. The Change in a system will influence theother systems through the network.
Acknowledgments We want to acknowledge Yuma Akado, one of the members of this project.

References
Borch C (2011) Niklas Luhmann. Routledge, London
Bosch T (2012) Sci-Fi Writer Bruce Sterling Explains the Intriguing New Concept of Design
Fiction.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2012/03/02/bruce_sterling_on_design_fictions_.htm
lDunne A, Raby F (2013) Speculative Everything: Design, Fiction, And Social Dreaming. MIT
Press, Cambridge
Heijden KVD, Bradfield R, Burt G, Cairns G, Wright G (2002) The Sixth Sense: Accelerating
Organizational Learning with Scenarios. John Wiley & Sons, Chichester
Iba T (2016) Sociological Perspective of the Creative Society. In: Zylka MP, Fuehres H,
Fronzetti Colladon A, Gloor PA (ed) Designing Networks for Innovation and Improvisation.
Springer International Publishing, pp 29-428
Iba T (2016) Future Language for Collaborative Design. Paper presented at 2016 International
PUARL Conference, University of San Francisco, California, 28-30 October 2016
Kimura N, Akado Y, Iba T (2016) The Future Vision of Productive City: Where Pattern Languages Are Used. Poster presented at 2016 International PUARL Conference, University of
San Francisco, California, 28-30 October 2016

12
Luhmann N (1970) Funktionale Methode und Systemtheorie. In: Soziologische Aufklärung, Bd.
1: Aufsätze zur Theorie sozialer Systeme, Köln-Opladen: Westdeutscher Verlag, pp 31-53
Luhmann N (1981) Politische Theorie im Wohlfahrtsstaat, München, Olzog. English edition:
Luhmann N (1990) Political Theory in the Welfare State (trans: Bednarz J). De Gruyter, Berlin and New York
Luhmann N (1984) Soziale Systeme: Grundriß einer allgemeinen Theorie. Suhrkamp, Frankfurt.
English edition: Luhmann N (1995) Social Systems (trans: Bednerz J, Baecker D). Stanford
University Press, California
Luhmann N (1986) Ökologische Kommunikation: Kann die moderne Gesellschaft sich aufökologische Gefährdungen einstellen?. Westdeutscher Verlag, Opladen. English edition:
Luhman N (1989) Ecological Communication (trans: Bednarz J). Polity Press, Cambridfe.
Luhmann N (1988) Die Wirtschaft der Gesellschaft. Suhrkamp, Frankfurt.
Luhmann N, Kieserling VA (ed.) (1998) Die Politik der Gesellschaft, Frankfurt: Suhrkamp
Maturana H (1981) Autopoiesis. In: Zeleny M (ed) Autopoiesis: A Theory of Living Organization. Elsevier North Holland, New York, pp 21-33
Sterling B (2009) COVER STORY: Design Fiction. In interactions 16, 3, ACM, New York, pp
20-24. doi: 10.1145/1516016.1516021