What are the impacts of a
1.5ºC of global warming inLatin America?

Tania GUILLÉN BOLAÑOS
Chapter 3
Chapter Scientist@TaniYa_Nic@GERICS_Germany
Katowice, 5th of December 2018

enb.iisd1

Where are we now?
• Since pre-industrial times, human activities
have caused approximately 1°C of globalwarming.
• At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between
2030 and 2052
• Past emissions alone do not commit theworld to 1.5°C (medium confidence)

Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos2

Projected Climate
Change, Potential Impacts
and Associated Risks31.5ºC versus 2ºC
Mean temperaturetemperature changechangeMean
Mean temperature change
at1.5°C
1.5°C GMST
GMST warming
warming
at
at 1.5°C GMST warming

Mean
Mean temperaturetemperaturechangechangeMean temperature change
at
at 2.0°C
2.0°CGMST
GMSTwarming
warming
at 2.0°C GMST warming

Temperature (°C)
Temperature(°C)
Temperature (°C)
Mean precipitation
precipitation change
Mean
Mean precipitation changechangeat1.5°C
GMST warming
warming
at
at1.5°C
1.5°C GMST
GMST warming

Temperature
Temperature(°C)(°C)
Temperature(°C)
Mean
Mean precipitation
precipitationchangechangeMean
precipitation
changeat2.0°C
GMSTwarming
at2.0°C
GMSTwarming
at 2.0°C GMST warming

Precipitation (%)
Precipitation (%)(%)

Difference
temperature
Differenceininmean
mean
temperature
Difference in mean temperaturechange- 1.5°C)change(2.0°C(2.0°C- 1.5°C)change (2.0°C - 1.5°C)

Difference
mean
precipitation
Differenceinmean
precipitation
Difference
ininmeanprecipitation
change(2.0°C1.5°C)change(2.0°C
1.5°C)
change (2.0°C - 1.5°C)Precipitation (%)
Precipitation(%)(%)
Precipitation

Figure 3.3 Projected changes in mean temperature (top) and mean precipitation (bottom)
at 1.5°C (left) and 2°C (middle)4

Change in temperature of hottest
days (TXx) at 1.5°C GMST warming

Change in temperature of hottest
days (TXx) at 2.0°C GMST warming

Difference in temperature of hottest
days (TXx) (2.0°C – 1.5°C)

Change in temperature of coldest
nights (TNn) at 1.5°C GMST warming

Change in temperature of coldest
nights (TNn) at 2.0°C GMST warmingDifference in temperature of coldest
nights (TNn) (2.0°C – 1.5°C)

Temperature (°C)
Change in extreme precipitation(Rx5day) at 1.5°C GMST warming

Change in extreme precipitation(Rx5day) at 2.0°C GMST warming

Precipitation (%)

5Figure 3.4 Projected changes in extremes

Temperature (°C)
Difference in change in extreme
precipitation (Rx5day) (2.0°C – 1.5°C)

Precipitation (%)

Impacts of global warming 1.5ºC versus 2ºC
Less risks projected for terrestrial andmarine biodiversity and ecosystems, andtheir functions and services to human whencomparing with 2ºC global warming.
Lower risks for health, livelihoods, food security,
water supply, human security and economic
growthUp to several hundred million fewer people
exposed to climate-related risk andsusceptible to poverty by 2050
Jason Florio / Aurora Photos

6

Emergence and intensity of regional climate change hot spots

TROPICS
1.5ºC or less

2ºC

2ºC – 3ºC

Emergence and intensity of regional climate change hot spots
Rainforests
1.5ºC or less

2ºC

2ºC – 3ºC

Central American forest: 3ºC-4ºC or global warming replacement of rainforest bysavannah and grassland

Amazon tipping point: 3ºC-4ºC or global warming or 40% of deforestation➥ stronger El Niño events➥ droughts in Central America and areas of South America(particularly vulnerable)➥ floods in South America

Emergence and intensity of regional climate change hot spots

AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS: KEY STAPLES CROPS
1.5ºC or less2ºC

2ºC – 3ºC

Small Islands: Caribbean•

Persistent heat stress for livestock•

Water stress• Drought: moderate to extreme drought conditions to be 9%longer at 2ºC•Coastal erosion•

Decrease in weaker tropical storms – increase innumber of intense storms•

Loss of coral reefs•Impacts on tourism sector

Summarizing

Tropical region is one of the hotspots when
considering 1.5ºC – 2ºC
Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in theclimate system, but is also affected by climatechangeWe are still on time to avoid the impacts of1.5ºC or higher levels of warming!

Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos

11ipcc.ch/report/sr15:
Summary for Policy Makers
10 Frequently Asked Questions
5 Chapters
Glossary12