At a glance
Most Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
made by parties to the Paris Agreement lackdetail on the sectoral decarbonisation plans andtargets required to deliver them.
ITF Transport Outlook 2023

Transport in Nationally
Determined Contributions
Essential to get the transport sector on track

The ITF Transport Outlook 2023 examines the impacts of different policy measures on global transpo
and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 2050. The analysis covers the movement of passengers and fr
across all transport modes. A particular focus is placed on transport policies that make cities more livsecond focus is on infrastructure investment decisions and what different policy scenarios mean for ta third focus, the report explores regional differences in policy impacts.

The analysis is based on two distinct scenarios for the future of transport, simulated with the ITF’s intransport models. The Current Ambition scenario assumes policies to decarbonise transport continue
their current pathway and considers the implications for transport demand, CO2 emissions and furthe
aspects over the next three decades. The High Ambition scenario assumes policies focused on accethe decarbonisation of the transport sector and their impact.

Transport accounts for 23% of global greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions, making it a vital sector to decarbonise todeliver the goals of the Paris Agreement and close the gap
highlighted in the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.

PRINT ISBN 978-9
PDF ISBN 978-9

However, only 32% of NDCs include transport carbon
dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation targets. To deliver the goals of theParis Agreement, governments need to set out and deliverclear action plans to decarbonise the transport sector.
The I TF has been analysing and tracking transport in NDCs.
At COP26, parties were requested to provide yearly updates
to their NDCs; therefore, some countries have updated theirNDCs ahead of COP28.
Since COP27, only 35 parties have provided an updated NDC
in time for COP28.

How is transport
reﬂected in NDCs?

What action shouldcountries take?

What is the roleof transport indelivering on theglobal stocktake?

9HSTCSThe transport sector is not on track todecarbonise in line with the Paris Agreement

Governments should provide Paris
Agreement-aligned transport emissionreduction targets in their NDCs

The UNFCCC Global Stocktake highlighted that while theParis Agreement has been the driving force behind largescale ambition and action, the remaining carbon budget will
not be met under current plans.

Given that the transport sector is not on track to decarbonise inline with the goals of the Paris Agreement, it is unsurprising thattransport-related commitments made in ﬁrst-round NDCs arealso insuﬃcient. The chart below shows that while 98% of NDCs
now mention transport, only 32% contain speciﬁc emissionreduction targets for the transport sector.

The United Nations notes that countries’ eﬀorts to bend
the emissions curve downward are insuﬃcient to limit
temperature rises to 1.5°C by 2100. The IE A emphasisesthat decarbonisation needs to begin immediately, withemissions needing to fall 3% per year until 2030 to achieve
Net Zero by 2050.

Including clear and achievable transport decarbonisation
targets in NDCs can help countries enhance their existing
NDC ambition and support and bolster their future ambition.
Governments should ensure that NDCs include Paris
Agreement-aligned transport emission-reduction targets aswell as the mitigation measures that will enable the targets
to be delivered. This should reﬂect the importance of “Avoid”,“Shift”, and “Improve” actions.

IPCC analysis suggests that transport needs to decarbonise
faster than any other sector and achieve a reduction of
70 -80% below 2015 amounts to meet the Paris Agreement
commitments. While government and industry have taken
action to decarbonise the sector, unfortunately, emissions
from the transport sector are not set to fall fast enough tomeet the Paris Agreement goals.

Figure 1

Transport measures have increasingly been
included in submitted NDCs, but speciﬁc CO 2
mitigation targets are lagging behind

The Global Stocktake identiﬁes speciﬁc actions forthe transport sector to get on track, aligning with therecommendations in the I TF Transport Outlook 2023.

Comparison of transport in NDCs submitted by parties in 2015 and 2021
100% = 194 parties

Phasing out internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles andshifting to electric vehicles are identiﬁed as oﬀering thegreatest mitigation potential in the sector. Alongside this,governments should implement demand-side interventions,such as shifting to sustainable transport modes (e.g. walking
and public transport).

Furthermore, adopting a “decide and provide” approachfor core infrastructure investment as part of a low-carbon
pathway will cost 5% less than under the current trajectory.

80PercentInternational co-operation on sustainable fuels, energyeﬃcient design, and data analytics are essential to reduce
emissions from international shipping, aviation and freight.
I TF analysis has found that countries could still reduce theirtransport emissions by roughly 80% by 2050.

98%

10084%

78%

58%

60

4032%

208%02015

2021

Partiesmentioning
transport

2015

2021

Parties withtransport mitigation
measures

2015

2021

Parties withtransport CO2
mitigation targets

At a glance
Most Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
made by parties to the Paris Agreement lackdetail on the sectoral decarbonisation plans andtargets required to deliver them.

Download our report:

ITF Transport Outlook 2023

The ITF Transport Outlook 2023 examines the impacts of different policy measures on global transport demandand carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 2050. The analysis covers the movement of passengers and freightacross all transport modes. A particular focus is placed on transport policies that make cities more liveable. A
second focus is on infrastructure investment decisions and what different policy scenarios mean for them. Asa third focus, the report explores regional differences in policy impacts.

ITF Transport Outlook 2023

The analysis is based on two distinct scenarios for the future of transport, simulated with the ITF’s in-housetransport models. The Current Ambition scenario assumes policies to decarbonise transport continue along
their current pathway and considers the implications for transport demand, CO2 emissions and furtheraspects over the next three decades. The High Ambition scenario assumes policies focused on accelerating
the decarbonisation of the transport sector and their impact.

PRINT ISBN 978-92-82-14481-7
PDF ISBN 978-92-82-16726-7

However, only 32% of NDCs include transport carbon
dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation targets. To deliver the goals of theParis Agreement, governments need to set out and deliverclear action plans to decarbonise the transport sector.
The I TF has been analysing and tracking transport in NDCs.
At COP26, parties were requested to provide yearly updates
to their NDCs; therefore, some countries have updated their
NDCs ahead of COP28.

ITF Transport Outlook 2023

Transport accounts for 23% of global greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions, making it a vital sector to decarbonise todeliver the goals of the Paris Agreement and close the gap
highlighted in the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.

The ITF Transport
Outlook 2023

9HSTCSC*beeibh+

The 2023 edition of the I TF Transport Outlook examines
the impacts of diﬀerent policy measures on global transportdemand and carbon dioxide emissions to 2050. Our analysis
covers passenger and freight movement across all transportmodes focusing on transport policies that make cities more
liveable and on infrastructure investment decisions.

Since COP27, only 35 parties have provided an updated NDC
in time for COP28.

Transport emission reduction targets
must be backed up by domestic action

While incorporating ambitious emissions reduction targets
in NDCs underscores a country’s commitment to global
decarbonisation, it is crucial to ensure that these targets areeﬀectively implemented through domestic policy.
To deliver a Paris Agreement-aligned reduction of transport
emissions, the I TF recommends that governments should: set targets to end sales of new internal combustion
engine vehicles for both passenger and freight roadﬂeets, roll out sustainable aviation fuels, and encourage
the uptake of zero-emission fuels for shipping scale up investment in and deployment of infrastructure
enabling uptake of more sustainable transport modes implement mode-shift and demand-management policies
to encourage more sustainable transport modes where
they can be most eﬀective
 mobilise ﬁnance to support emerging markets anddeveloping economies with their transition.

Available for download:
www.itf-oecd.org/itf-transport-outlook-2023For more information
guineng.chen@itf-oecd.org
I TF 2 rue André Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France
www.itf-oecd.org