Volume 5, Issue 1, January – 2020

International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165

An Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on
Rainfall Variability and Drought over Abuja, Nigeria
O. O. Itiowe, M.Sc*
Central Forecast Office, Nigerian
Meteorological Agency,
Abuja Nigeria

S. M. Hassan
Department of Geography andEnvironmental Management,
Faculty of Social Science, Abuja
Nigeria

Abstract:- The unsteady characteristics of rainfall in
recent times can be attributed to alterations in the
global climate. This has exposed the environment tohazards of extreme weather events such as droughts
and floods thereby posing threat to livelihood especiallyin developing countries with a low climate adaptation
capacity. Among other factors, rainfall variability inrecent times has become a complex phenomenon
hampering the implementation of suitable adaptation
initiatives required in mitigating consequent extreme
events. This paper presents an analysis of thefluctuations in the rainfall over Abuja between 1986
and 2016 with special emphases on the magnitude ofwetness and dryness of the area within the period ofstudy. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) andPrecipitation Variability Index (PVI) were used toassess the level of wetness and dryness as well as theextent of meteorological drought in a season based on
thirty one year rainfall data from the Abuja station of
the Nigerian Meteorological Agency. The results
obtained indicated that rainfall is highly variable in
Abuja ranging from least to moderate as well as highvariability. The study shows high rainfall variability
throughout the period under review with more dryness
over the last decade which was more pronounced in2013 and 2014 respectively. Findings from this paper
will be helpful in developing tools for regular warnings
against meteorological drought with the possibility ofmassive water intervention especially for crop
management amongst other mitigation and adaptation
practices.
Keywords:- Climate Change, Rainfall
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies.
I.

Variability,

INTRODUCTION

The temperature of the earth’s climate has increased
with about 0.7 degrees within the last century (IPCC,
2018). This global shift in climate is significant in space
and through time among different regions (IPCC, 2018)
primarily due to the gradual heating up of the earth surface(Purkey and Johnson, 2010; Santamouris, 2013) which has
resulted to variability in global rainfall. Precipitation
projections in general circulation models (GCMs) havelarge uncertainties compared to other model variables, suchas temperature (Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013). The mostconfident estimates indicate that precipitation will increase
in mesic areas particularly the wet tropics, the mid to high
IJISRT20JAN645

O. D. Oghenejabor, M.Sc
Research and Training Unit, Nigerian
Meteorological Agency,
Abuja Nigeria

latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and decrease in semiarid regions particularly the subtropics.
Climate variability study over temporal and spatial
scale is important to understand the behaviour of different
climate systems and their effects on environment andcommunity (Oguntunde et al. 2012). Ziervogel et al.
(2006); UNDP (2010) states how climate variability
directly impacts on cropping in several ways, which hasconstantly hindered the prospects of attaining specificMillennium Development Goals (MDG); such asalleviation of poverty and hunger. In recent times, Nigeria
has been regarded as a country having more people livingin extreme poverty which could increase from 44.2% to45.5% in 2030 (World Poverty 2018). Adger et al. (2007)
argued that difficulties in coping with droughts and rainfall
variability have contributed to the deepening poverty.
Scholarly studies by Tambo and Abdoulaye (2013); Abajeet al. (2014); Amwata et al. (2016), have revealed thatelongated period of drought can result to starvation in mostrural communities in Africa since most household dependon agriculture for their livelihood.
Although, several studies have reported substantial
upsurge in the frequency and intensity of drought in Africa,such has not been experienced over the last 3 decades in
Nigeria (Ekpoh and Nsa 2011). Contrarily, there have beenreports of Nigeria being situated within the high droughtrisk zones of the world; increase in temperature over thelast 45 years and about 20% decrease in precipitation
between 1901 and 2001 has amplified the occurrence ofdroughts in various African nations (World Bank 2005; .
Oguntunde et al., 2011; Masih et al., 2014; Abatan et al2016). However, the nonexistence of drought reports in
Nigeria over the years highlights the need to investigate theeffect of climate change on droughts in Abuja located at thecentre of the country.
Kim et al. (2010) examined the Impact of Climate
Change on the East Asia Droughts. Result shows “increasein the mean precipitation over East Asia and decreased
precipitation in Southeast Asia. Hence, due to the increased
rainfall pattern, East Asia tends to be wetter with decreased
frequency and duration of drought, while intense droughts
are predicted to be more frequent in Southeast Asia”.
(Ambrosino, Chandler and Todd, 2010) worked on
Southern African Monthly Rainfall Variability using
Generalized Linear Models for the study. Findings of thestudy showed variability in precipitation in the region.

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Volume 5, Issue 1, January – 2020

International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165

Among the retained indices, relative humidity and El Niño
accounted for the highest degree of explained variability.
The location and intensity of the jet stream were also foundto have a statistically significant and physically meaningful
effect upon rainfall variability. Isikwue et al. (2013)
conducted a study on Analysis of Rainfall Variability oversome cities in Nigeria using Harmonic Analysis Techniqueto estimate the annual rainfall amounts over Port Harcourt
and Kano from 1977 to 2008. The estimated rainfall valuesof 2011 – 2014 were validated using a T-test analysis on
the estimated and measured rainfall values of 2009 and2010 data. Results showed that rainfall variability in thetwo stations representing two different vegetative zones in
Nigeria is strongly periodic and that the cyclic fluctuationsin the rainfall are dominated by first harmonics, having
large amplitudes of 90.40% and 75.41% in Port Harcourt
and Kano respectively, indicating strong annual variationsof rainfall in the stations. The mean monthly rainfall forboth stations show different modal patterns. The 2009-2010
prediction of monthly average rainfall for the stations werevalidated at 95% confidence level. Nouaceur andMurarescu, (2016) examined rainfall variability and trendof annual rainfall in Northern Africa. Their investigation
showed extreme variability which was represented by the
beginning of a gradual return to wetter conditions since theearly 2000s in Algeria and Tunisia and from 2008 for
Morocco (this trend is confirmed by recent agricultural
production data in 2011/2012 and 2012/2013).
An assessment of monthly rainfall distribution in
Nigeria between 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 was conductedby Eludoyin et al. (2009). Findings of the study showedsome fluctuations in almost all the months in each year
within the two decades. According to Ayansina andOgunbo (2009) rainfall variability in Nigeria will continue

to be on the increase as a result of climate change. This
paper seeks to analyse fluctuations in the rainfall overAbuja between 1986 and 2016 with special emphases on
the magnitude of wetness and dryness of the area as well as
consider some adaptation strategies to mitigate the induced
stress of extreme weather and climate especially on
agriculture.
II.

STUDY AREA

The study area, Abuja lies at the centre of Nigeria
between coordinates of latitude 8o 25’ and 9o25’ north of theequator and longitude 6o 45’and 7o 45’ east of Greenwich.
The territory covers an area of 8,000 square km. It isbordered to the north by Kaduna State, to the east by
Nasarawa State, to the south west by Kogi State and to thewest by Niger State. The Nigerian climate is characterized
mainly by the interplay between the dry north-easterly andthe moist south-westerly winds. The climate of the study
area is the hot and humid tropical type. Its relative humidity
is not as high as in the southern part and temperatures are
not as high as in the far north either (Oyekale, 2009). The
maximum temperatures occur in March with amounts
varying from 37oC in the south-west to about 30oC in thenorth-east (Adakayi, 2000). Abuja represents a transitional
character between the zone of double rainfall maximum tothe south and of a single maximum to the north. This
coupled with its locational advantage to the windward of
the Jos Plateau are some of the factors responsible for thevariation in rainfall amounts received in a year (Adakayi,2000). Rainfall starts at about 20th of March on thesouthern boundary of territory to about 10th of April at thenorthern limits. Rainfall cessation dates range from 20th
October in the north to about 18th November in the south,
giving a duration of between 190-240 days.

Fig 1:- Map showing the study area
Source: University of Abuja Geographic Information Systems Laboratory

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International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165

III.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Rainfall is particularly important with respect toagriculture in Abuja since agriculture in the region ismostly rain-fed. Thirty one years (1986 – 2016) qualitycontrolled daily rainfall data from the Abuja station of the
Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) was used forthe study.
 Data Analysis
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) andPrecipitation Variability Index (PVI) were used to analyse
the daily, monthly and annual mean rainfall as well as thedegree of Abuja’s variability with reference to dryness andwetness. Rainfall trends for three (3) decades were also
determined. Positive SPI values indicated greater than
mean precipitation while negative values indicated less than
mean precipitation.
Formula for SPI is given as x - xSD
Where, x = Actual Rainfall;
x = Mean Rainfall and;SD = Standard Deviation from normal rainfall.
Formula for PVI is given as PVI = (A/Y-B/Y) 100% =Hd/m-Ld/MY
Where, Hd = highest daily rainfall in a month
Ld = lowest daily rainfall in a monthm = monthly rainfall total
MY = monthly total * annual total
This model explains the tendency of doughtiness in agiven season. It has three threshold levels that explain theregions variability in the dryness and vulnerability todrought, i.e.

i.
ii.
iii.

Least Variable = ≤ 20%
Moderately Variable = ≥ 20% but ≤ 30% andHighly Variable = ≥ 30%
IV.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

 Precipitation Variability
The study shows high rainfall variability throughout
the years under review. Table 1 shows 72% precipitation in1986 as against -99% in 1988. It further deepened to -106%
in 1989 but experienced a sharp rise to 123% in 1994 and131% in 1999 respectively. Widely against the WMO
climate normal of 1440mm for the base years of 1981 to
2010, the year 2000 experienced dryness of -122% but an
extreme wet year with PVI value of 279% in 2002. The
present study is in accordance with the studies of Marengo
et al. (2018) whose focus was on “Climatic Characteristicsof The 2010-2016 Droughts in The Semiarid Northeast
Brazil Region”. Analysis using drought indicators andmeteorological fields shows that “since the middle 1990s to
2016, 16 out of 25 years experienced rainfall below normal,
which implies that the present drought may have started
since late 90s, with the intense drought of 1993 and 1998,
and then the sequence of dry years (interrupted byrelatively wet years in 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011) afterthat may have affected the levels of reservoirs in the region,
resulting to intense water crisis that was magnified by thenegative rainfall anomalies since 2010”. In addition to thepresent study, high variability in the nature of precipitationof Abuja persisted even in the last decade with -135% in2008 to 139% in 2010, downshift to -175% in 2013 and arise of 87% in 2016. NiMet Quarterly Weather Review(2016) also captures precipitation as highly variable in
Abuja.

Year

Rain (x)

x

SD

X-x

SPI = X-x/SD

X-x/SD*100

19861558.61424.3

185.4

134.3

0.7

72.4

1987

1391.71424.3

185.4

-32.6

-0.2

-17.6

1988

1240.71424.3185.4-183.6

-1.0

-99.0

1989

1227.21424.3185.4-197.1-1.1-106.31990

1438.31424.3

185.4

14.0

0.1

7.5

1991

1499.61424.3

185.4

75.3

0.4

40.6

1992

1377

1424.3

185.4

-47.3

-0.3

-25.5

1993

1522.71424.3

185.4

98.4

0.5

53.0

1994

1651.51424.3

185.4

227.2

1.2

122.5

1995

1310.91424.3185.4-113.4

-0.6

-61.2

1996

1401.61424.3

185.4

-22.7

-0.1

-12.3

1997

1336.31424.3

185.4

-88.0

-0.5

-47.5

1998

1455.11424.3

185.4

30.8

0.2

16.6

1999

1667.91424.3

185.4

243.6

1.3

131.4

2000

1198.31424.3185.4-226.0-1.2-121.92001

1383

1424.3

185.4

-41.3

-0.2

-22.3

2002

1941.61424.3

185.4

517.3

2.8

279.0

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International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165

2003

1428.31424.3

185.4

4.0

0.02

2.1

2004

1541.21424.3

185.4

116.9

0.6

63.0

2005

1471.81424.3

185.4

47.5

0.3

25.6

2006

1311.61424.3185.4-112.7

-0.6

-60.8

2007

1388.91424.3

185.4

-35.4

-0.2

-19.1

2008

1174.71424.3185.4-249.6-1.4-134.6

20091444.61424.3

185.4

20.3

0.1

10.9

2010

1682.21424.3

185.4

257.9

1.4

139.1

2011

1212.41424.3185.4-211.9-1.1-114.3

2012

1638.11424.3

185.4

213.8

1.2

115.3

2013

1099.91424.3185.4-324.4-1.8-175.02014

1128.91424.3185.4-295.4-1.6-159.3

2015

1443.31424.3

185.4

19.0

0.1

10.2

2016

1586

1424.3

185.4

161.7

0.9

87.2

Table 1:- Percentage Variability of Rainfall

Fig 2:- Precipitation Variability Index for 1986
Figure 2 shows PVI values for March, April, May, July, August and November, 1986 as highly variable because they are
greater than 30% while June, September and October as moderately variable because they are greater than 20% but less than 30%.

Fig 3:- Precipitation Variability Index for 1996
The PVI for 1996 shows some level of deviation from the past decade with only three months of high variability, fourmonths of moderate variability and one month having least variability as against 1986 with high variability of six months andthree months of moderate variability. This is in agreement with Adakayi (2012) who explained that variability, in terms offluctuation or trend is an inherent attribute of climate or weather. He noted that considering the reality of climatechange/variability, what is of more significance is the degree of variability that climate is subject to as well as the duration of suchvariability.

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ISSN No:-2456-2165

Fig 4:- Precipitation Variability Index for 2006
Figure 4 shows early rains in January with high variability value. High PVI was also observed in March and November. The
months of April, June and August experienced moderate variability while least variability was observed in May, July, September
and October, 2016. The early rain recorded in the year is an indication of fluctuation in the onset date in Abuja. Apparently,
Nigeria being among the most populous countries in the world with an estimate of 200.8 million people (UN, 2019), stress theneed to pay more attention to the current trends of climate variations especially as it affects agriculture and other forms of human
livelihood in the country. Nkwunonwo et al. (2015) observed that climate change/variability have increased the frequency andintensity of rainfall which may have contributed to the recent flood incidences in some parts of the country. In the same vein, thestudy suggested modelling and vulnerability assessment as useful tools for future weather and climate risk and disaster reduction.

Fig 5:- Precipitation Variability Index for 2016

Fig 6:- Standard Precipitation Index for Abuja between 1986 and 2016
Generally, Abuja exhibits a pattern of rainfall ranging from least, moderate to high variability. However, some years tend to
be more variable than others. The PVI values for 2016 shows two months with high variability, moderate and least variability
appeared in three months and one month respectively. There is a gradual downward trend of rainfall in Abuja from 1986 to 2016.
Figure 6 shows consistent fluctuations in the rainfall amount received in the last thirty one years except 2013 and 2014 which wasobserved as severely dry years thus indicating meteorological drought in Abuja. The trend and pattern of rainfall observed in thiswork gives an indication that Abuja is gradually getting drier and highly variable in daily, monthly and annual precipitation
received.
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 Decadal Rainfall Patterns and Inter-annual Meteorological Drought
The PVI gives a critical insight of the extent of meteorological drought in a season. Table 2 shows that Abuja received lessthan normal rainfall for six years as well as above normal rainfall for four years indicating drier than wet years between 1987 and1996. In the same vein, the table shows 1988 and 1989 as the driest years during the period. Although there was a rise in rainfall
from 1990 through to 1994, the following year 1995 experienced a decline in rainfall. Moderate dryness was observed twice in1988 and 1989 while other years had mild and normal dryness. The study shows varying drought levels over Abuja in the last four
decades. Ajileye et al. (2015) observed slight increase in drought incidences over Abuja as well as a gradual shift from wet to dry
climate confirming occurrence of drought over Nigeria in the last two decades
Year

Rain (X)MeanSD

X-MEANSPI= X-MEAN/SD

1987

1391.71406.1

130.4

-14.4

-0.1

1988

1240.71406.1130.4-165.4-1.3

1989

1227.21406.1130.4-178.9-1.4

1990

1438.31406.1

130.4

32.2

0.3

1991

1499.61406.1

130.4

93.5

0.7

1992

1377

1406.1

130.4

-29.1

-0.2

1993

1522.71406.1

130.4

116.6

0.9

1994

1651.51406.1

130.4

245.4

1.9

1995

1310.91406.1

130.4

-95.2

-0.7

1996

1401.61406.1

130.4

-4.5

-0.03

Table 2:- Yearly Rainfall of Abuja from 1987 to 1996
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov

46%
53%
33%
22%
35%
37%
21%
21%
49%
Table 3:- PV1 for 1986

Year

Rain (x)

x

SD

X-x

SPI = X-x/SD

1986
1987

1558.61391.71424.31424.3

185.4
185.4

134.3
-32.6

0.7
-0.2

1988

1240.71424.3185.4-183.6-1.0

1989

1227.21424.3185.4-197.1-1.1

1990

1438.31424.3

185.4

14.0

0.1

1991

1499.61424.3

185.4

75.3

0.4

1992

1377

1424.3

185.4

-47.3

-0.3

1993

1522.71424.3

185.4

98.4

0.5

1994

1651.51424.3

185.4

227.2

1.2

1995

1310.91424.3185.4-113.4-0.6

1996

1401.61424.3

185.4

-22.7

-0.1

1997

1336.31424.3

185.4

-88.0

-0.5

1998

1455.11424.3

185.4

30.8

0.2

1999

1667.91424.3

185.4

243.6

1.3

2000

1198.31424.3185.4-226.0

-1.2

2001

1383

1424.3

185.4

-41.3

-0.2

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International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology
ISSN No:-2456-2165

2002

1941.61424.3

185.4

517.3

2.8

2003

1428.31424.3

185.4

4.0

0.02

2004

1541.21424.3

185.4

116.9

0.6

2005

1471.81424.3

185.4

47.5

0.3

2006

1311.61424.3185.4-112.7-0.6

20071388.91424.3

185.4

-35.4

-0.2

2008

1174.71424.3185.4-249.6-1.4

20091444.61424.3

185.4

20.3

0.1

2010

1682.21424.3

185.4

257.9

1.4

2011

1212.41424.3185.4-211.9-1.1

2012

1638.11424.3

185.4

213.8

1.2

2013

1099.91424.3185.4-324.4-1.8

20141128.91424.3185.4-295.4-1.6

2015

1443.31424.3

185.4

19.0

0.1

2016

1586

1424.3

185.4

161.7

0.9

Table 4:- Rainfall Pattern of Abuja for 31 years

Fig 7:- Standard Precipitation Index for Abuja from 2007 to 2016
Figure 7 shows a pattern of mild to moderate dryness in Abuja. The study shows more of mild wetness in 2007, 2009 and2015 compared with the previous decades especially in 2002 with extreme wetness. Although the SPI values for the three decades
in Table 4 shows some similarities in the level of wetness and dryness, however, the study reveals that there is a slow and steadydecline of rainfall in Abuja particularly with reference to the severe dryness observed in 2013 and 2014.
Value≥2
˂ 2 ≥ 1.5
≥ 1 ˂ 1.5
≥ 0.5 ˂ 1
˂ 0.5
˃ -0.5≥ -0.5 ˂ -1
≥ -1 ˂ -1.5
˃ -2 ≤ -1.5
≤ -2

V.

RatingExtreme wetness
Severe wetness
Moderate wetness
Mild wetness
NormalNormalMild dryness
Moderate
SevereExtremeTable 5:- SPI Table (Komuscus) measuring Wetness and Dryness

CONCLUSION

Climate variability and climate change seem to havetaken the centre stage in Abuja with gradual but consistentdecrease in rainfall recorded in the last three decades andsharply represented in the immediate past decade. The
study observed high variability in terms of daily and
IJISRT20JAN645

monthly and annual precipitation. This is in accordancewith Ayansina and Ogunbo (2009) who adduced thatrainfall variability in Nigeria will continue to be on theincrease as a result of climate change. The variations ininter-annual dryness as well as varying onset, cessation andlength of raining season reveals Abuja’s vulnerability tometeorological drought. This invariably implies that,www.ijisrt.com

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climate variability and climate change seem to be the major
contributing factors to drought incidences in Abuja
especially meteorological drought.
This paper suggests a few climate adaptation
measures amongst which are; early warning alert andforecast system to mitigate occurrences of meteorologicaldrought with the possibility of massive water intervention
especially for crop management. Another critical adaptation
measure is the urgent need for more weather observatories
for sufficient climatic data of Abuja and all over Nigeria.
Modelling and vulnerability assessment can also serve as
useful tools for future weather and climate risk and disaster
reduction. Other aspects of mitigation and adaptation
practices for drought especially through strategic national
policies and intervention programs by government shouldbe employed to reduce the effects of climate change on
Abuja.
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