Recent developments incontainer shipping and theirimpacts on ports
Olaf Merk

EU Sectoral Social Dialogue Committee Ports
14 October 2020

2Key messages•

Despite volume drops, liner shipping enjoyedspikes in freight rates and made record profits•

This paradox was manufactured via joint
withdrawal of ship capacity via blanked
sailings.

•This has cascaded to ports, creating challenges
related to connectivity, peaks and reliability•

It also raises concerns related to competition

3

Recent ITF work on container shipping8
2020-07

2020-05

2020-032020-01

2019-112019-092019-07

2019-05

2019-032019-012018-112018-092018-072018-05

2018-032018-012017-112017-092017-072017-05

2017-032017-01

2016-11

2016-09

2016-072016-05

2016-03

2016-01

2015-11

2015-09

2015-072015-05

2015-032015-01

2014-11

2014-09

2014-072014-05

2014-032014-012013-112013-09

2013-072013-05

2013-032013-01

Million TEUs

4

Global container shipping volumes (monthly)
16

15

14

13

12

11

10

9

Source: CTS, ITF

-20%
2020-07

2020-05

2020-032020-01

2019-112019-092019-07

2019-05

2019-032019-012018-112018-092018-072018-05

2018-032018-012017-112017-092017-072017-05

2017-032017-01

2016-11

2016-09

2016-072016-05

2016-03

2016-01

2015-11

2015-09

2015-072015-05

2015-032015-01

2014-11

2014-09

2014-072014-05

2014-032014-01

5

Container shipping volume growth (YoY)

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%0%-5%-10%-15%

Source: CTS, ITF

6Container shipping volumes per world region
10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%
EuropeFar East

January 2020

February 2020

North America

March 2020

Oceania

April 2020

India & Middle
East

May 2020

June 2020

Latin America

July 2020

Sub SaharanAfricaAugust 2020

Source: CTS, ITF

02016-10
2016-142016-18
2016-222016-26
2016-30
2016-34
2016-38
2016-42
2016-46
2016-50
2017-022017-06
2017-10
2017-142017-18
2017-222017-262017-30
2017-34
2017-38
2017-42
2017-46
2017-50
2018-022018-06
2018-10
2018-142018-18
2018-222018-262018-30
2018-34
2018-38
2018-42
2018-46
2018-50
2019-022019-06
2019-10
2019-142019-18
2019-222019-26
2019-30
2019-34
2019-38
2019-42
2019-46
2019-50
2020-032020-07
2020-112020-15
2020-192020-23
2020-27
2020-312020-35
2020-39

7

Development of global ocean freight rates

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

Drewry World Container Index
SCFI Global Container Index

Source: Drewry, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, ITF

8Profit margins of container lines
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%

-2%
-4%-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%

Source: Alphaliner, ITF

2020-32

2020-17

2020-07

2019-49

2019-39

2019-292019-192019-092018-51

2018-41

2018-312018-212018-112018-012017-43

2017-33

2017-232017-132017-03

2016-45

2016-35

2016-25

2016-152016-05

2015-47

2015-37

2015-272015-17

2015-072014-49

2014-39

2014-29

2014-192014-09

2013-51

2013-41

2013-312013-212013-11

2012-53

2012-43

2012-33

2012-23

2012-132012-03

2011-46

2011-36

2011-26

2011-16

2011-06

2010-48

2010-38

2010-28

2010-18

2010-08

2009-50

2009-40

2009-30

2009-20

2009-10

2008-52

9The magic of “market discipline” (1)Idle ship capacity in TEUs

3000 000

2500 000

2000 000

1500 000

1000 000

500 000

Source: Alphaliner, ITF

10The magic of “market discipline” (2)Joint withdrawal of ship capacity: blank sailings: cancelled services

Source: Sea Intelligence, ITF

11Effects on ports: connectivity
Asia-Europe port calls cancelled in 2020-Q2:
North Europe

Mediterranean

Felixstowe

La Spezia

Zeebrugge

Genoa

Antwerp

Marseille
Malta

Le Havre

Barcelona

Rotterdam

Valencia

Hamburg

Piraeus

London Gateway

TriesteSouthampton

Koper

Sines

RijekaDunkirk

Constanza

BremerhavenAlgeciras
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Source: Sea Intelligence, ITF

12Effects on ports: peaks and troughs

Source: Sea Intelligence, ITF

13

Effects on ports: schedule reliability
90%
80%

70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Source: Sea Intelligence, ITF

14Concerns related to competition

Source: ITF

15

Responses of competition authorities

Source: Lloyd’s List

Thank you!
Olaf Merk
olaf.merk@itf-oecd.org