Statistics BriefOctober2022► Global Trade and Transport

Trade recovery in 2021 impeded by Omicron
virus and Ukraine war
The latest global trade and freight data for February 2020 to May 2022
collected by the International Transport Forum show the following:
Sea and air freight volumes fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels by
Q3 2021.
► Some gains in trade volumes accumulated until September 2021 werelost toward the year’s end.
► The value-to-weight ratio of imports and exports by air increased
sharply, reflecting the pandemic’s impact on trade costs.
► Starting in March 2021, the value-to-weight ratio for sea trade also rose
as a result of surging maritime transport costs.
► Trade flows from the EU27 to BRICS and Asia significantly decreased
since the beginning of the war in Ukraine in February 2022.
► US trade with these regions was less affected and remained above prepandemic levels.
► Trade via road and rail continued to grow between the EU27 andneighbouring countries as well as between the US and its neighbours.
► Eurasian trade flows relying on surface transport have declined sincethe beginning of the war in Ukraine.
►Trade volumes began to recover in August 2020, and growth accelerated
during Q1-Q3 2021. The resurgence of the Covid-19 pandemic due to the Omicron
variant at the end of 2021 and the war in Ukraine at the beginning of 2022 reversed thepositive trend in international trade in 2021. Both factors impacted the EU27
significantly more than the United States.
In September 2021, sea freight volumes fully recovered to the pre-pandemic
level of February 2020 in the EU27 and the US. Exports by sea (measured intonnes) from the US rose significantly during Q4 2021 and in the first five months of2022. As a result, trade volumes were 10% higher in May 2022 than pre-pandemiclevels. US imports by sea, however, stagnated during the first months of 2022 and, by
May 2022, remained at pre-pandemic levels. Conversely, exports by sea from the EU27
began to drop from May 2021 while imports increased. In May 2022, EU27 exports by
sea were 5% lower and imports 7% higher than in February 2020, the start of theCovid-19 pandemic (Figure 1).
Air freight recovered strongly in 2021 but started contracting again in early2022. Air-borne imports to the US (measured in tonnes) grew by 12% in Q3 2021 and
23% in Q4 2021 compared to the pre-pandemic level, after having steadily declined
during the previous five quarters. US exports by air grew throughout 2021 and early12022, reaching all-time high export volumes in February 2022, 36% above the samemonth in 2020. In May 2022, imports were nevertheless still 21% above the prepandemic level, and exports 31%. EU27 trade by air also recovered well at thebeginning of 2021; in June 2021, exports rose by 13% compared to February 2020 andimports by 27%. However, the momentum did not last, and overall air trade began tocontract again during Q4 2021 to nearly pre-pandemic levels. In May 2022, EU27
imports were only 2% above those in February 2020, showing a poor performancecompared to 2021. The fall in exports was not as sharp as for imports but still
noticeable, reaching levels 6% higher compared to pre-pandemic levels (Figure 1).
The Covid-19 pandemic affected trade volumes as well as the types and value offreight. For instance, the value-to-weight ratio of air-borne trade (measured in local currencyper tonne) increased sharply for EU27 exports as a result of the global sanitary crisis. FromFebruary to April 2020, the ratio for all exports increased by 38%, an all-time high. Thevariations in value-to-weight ratios for international freight over the past two years reflect therise in production and transport costs due to the restrictions imposed on commercial flights
and port operations, and the quarantine measures implemented by many countries(Figure 2).
The resurgence of Covid-19 due to the Omicron variant and the war in Ukraine
devastated EU27 sea-borne trade with BRICS and Asian countries after asignificant recovery. EU27 trade by sea with BRICS, African, Asian, and North
American countries initially recovered during 2021, on average reaching pre-pandemic
levels. However, from Q4 2021 until May 2022, sea exports to BRICS and Asian
countries significantly contracted again. EU27 exports to BRICS countries in May 2022
were 19% lower than before the pandemic; those to Asia were 16% lower. Imports tothe EU27 from both regions did not change much during this period. Trade volumes
with North America and Africa picked up between Q4 2021 and May 2022, while seaborne trade with the Middle East and Latin America remained at lower levels than
before the Covid-19 pandemic (Figure 3).
Trade by air for the EU27 shows similar patterns to sea-borne trade as a resultof the Omicron variant and the war in Ukraine. For air-borne trade with BRICS andAsian countries, the beginning of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 explained thedrastic contraction of freight flows in both directions. Imports from BRICS and Asia
were badly hit: in May 2022, they were 25% (BRICS) and 12% (Asia) below theirFebruary 2020 levels. Exports held up better: air-borne freight from EU27 to Asia was6% below its pre-pandemic level, while BRICS trade by air was on par. Air-based trade
between the EU27 and the Americas increased above the pre-pandemic level during thefirst months of 2022, whereas it has not entirely recovered with Africa and the Middle
East since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic (Figure 4).
US trade with its partners rebounded despite international turmoil. US sea
freight volumes were almost back to pre-pandemic levels for most of the US trade
partners by May 2022. Maritime flows between the US and BRICS and Asian countries
drove the overall growth of sea-based trade in Q1 and Q2 2021. Ever since, the US sea
trade with these two regions has decreased. By May 2022, it had dropped from 22%
above pre-pandemic levels in Q2 2021 to only 11% above for trade with BRICS, andfrom 22% to 12% higher with Asian countries. Moreover, trade by sea between the USand traditional trade partners in Latin America and Europe stagnated around prepandemic levels since 2020. Sea-based freight transport with the Middle East remained
2% below pre-pandemic levels in May 2022 and was 8% lower with Africa than inFebruary 2020. US external trade by air in May 2022 was higher than in February 2020
with all but one region: only trade by air with the Middle East remained at par with prepandemic levels. That said, US trade by air with BRICS and Asian countries began tocontract with the start of the war in Ukraine (Figure 5 and Figure 6).

2

Trade by road and rail was at its highest between EU27 and its neighbours andthe US and its two neighbouring countries since the beginning of the Covid-19
pandemic. On average, surface trade (measured in local currency) accounted for only
21% of EU27 international trade and an almost negligible share for the US (less than1%). Unlike sea and air freight, surface mode freight transport showed continuing
growth in the US with its two neighbouring countries. In Europe, land-based freightflows with Balkan countries and Türkiye continued to grow from the beginning of 2021,
despite the Omicron wave and the war in Ukraine. That was not the case for trade withAsia, however. From the start of the war in Ukraine, activity along the Eurasian rail androad corridors declined. Road freight was particularly affected, with exports via Eurasianroad routes 34% lower in May 2022 than before the pandemic. Imports arriving in theEU27 by truck also sharply declined again, after a remarkable recovery during 2021. InMay 2022, inbound road freight volumes were only 13% higher than in February 2020,
after a high point in Q4 2021, when imports by road were 59% above pre-pandemic
levels (Figure 7).

3

Figure 1. EU27 and US External trade, percentage change from February 2020
(Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)4

Figure 2. EU27 and US External trade, percentage change from February 2020
(Value of goods per tonne, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)5

Figure 3. EU27 external trade by sea, percentage change from February 2020
(Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)

Figure 4. EU27 external trade by air, percentage change from February 2020
(Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)6

Figure 5. US external trade by sea, percentage change from February 2020
(Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)

Figure 6. US external trade by air, percentage change from February 2020
(Tonnes, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)7

Figure 7. US and EU27 external trade by rail and road,percentage change from February 2020
(Current values in USD / EUR, monthly trend, seasonally adjusted)

Note: Data for Balkans includes Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, FYROM, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro and Serbia.

8

Methodological note
The International Transport Forum Statistics Brief on Global Trade and Transport presents the latest global freight transport
trends based on the Global Trade and Transport Database and the ITF Quarterly Transport Statistics. These data are collected by
the Secretariat through a questionnaire and from external sources, including Eurostat, US Census and Japan Customs. National
data are seasonally adjusted by the International Transport Forum Secretariat for analytical purposes.
Short-term data is normally compiled to allow timely identification of changes in any indicator and especially to identify possible
turning points. However, monthly or quarterly transport statistics are often characterised by seasonal patterns. Seasonal
adjustment filters out usual seasonal fluctuations that recur with similar intensity in the same season every year. Trend, in turn,excludes also other irregular factors (such as strikes and impact of weather) from a time series. A time series from which theseasonal variations have been eliminated basically allows for the comparison of data between two quarters for which seasonalpatterns are different, also helping to identify turning points and the underlying direction of the change.
Seasonal adjustment is carried out with the Demetra program using the TRAMO/SEATS adjustment method. Seasonally adjusted
estimates may differ from those produced by national authorities due to differences in the adjustment methodology.
For more detailed description of methodology, click here.

If you would like to receive further issues of the Statistics Brief or more information,please contact: Ms Rachele Poggi (rachele.poggi@itf-oecd.org) and Mr Diego Botero(diego.botero@itf-oecd.org).
For additional information on our transport statistics, go to
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ITF_SHORT_TERM_INDIC

9