COST AND RESPONSIBILITY SHARINGFOR FLOOD PROTECTION

Mikio Ishiwatari
JICA
The University of Tokyo1. Flood disasters in Japan
2. Investment in flood protection in Japan
3. Investment in flood protection in the Philippines
4. How to secure funding1.FLOOD DISASTERS AND INVESTMENTIN JAPAN1-1 recent and trend of flood disasters

Death toll: 86
Economic damage: 0.58 bill USD

2020 HEAVY RAINFALL,KYUSYU

Kumagawa River
Hitoyoshi City,
Kumamoto Pref.

Source: MLIT

Death toll: 91
Economic damage: 17 bill USD

2019 TYPHOON HAGIBISMUSASHIKOSUGI, KAWASAKI CITY“TOWER MANSION” FACING FLOOD RISKS

Ishiwatari

SEVERE FLOOD DISASTERS IN RECENT YEARSNo of Noof Noof Economic loss
dead & houses
houses trillion JPY
missing destroyed flooded (billion USD)
2015 Three typhoons
118,721
13,3920.32 (3.0)
2016 Typhoon Lionrock
27
2,912
1,930
0.28 (2.5)
Kyushu
42
1,476
1,667
0.19 (1.6)
2017 Northern
Torrential Rainfall
2018 Western JPN Torrential 232
21,460 30,439
1.215 (11)Rainfall2019 Typhoon Hagibis
9167,016 29,556 1.86 (17)Year Event

2020 Kumamoto
Rain

Torrential

864,55813,934

0.58 (5.3)

What achieved<300

Death tool >1,000

Economic damage: 4%<0.4%
Trends of Flood Damage in Japan

Source:GDP data, “Changes in Japan’s Post-war Finances and Future Challenges” 1946–1950, Ministry of Finance, “Annual economic report,” long-term economic statistics from 1955
to 2019. Amount of flood damage and number of casualties: “Statistical survey on flood damage” 2018 MLIT

兆円

Flood protection paidd off at the national level
several tri. JPY/ Yr, 10 billon USD/ Yr

FLOOD PROTECTION INVESTMENT PAID OFF IN JPNBenefit

Budget for flood protection

Tsukahara（2015）

1-2 INVESTMENT CYCLE IN DRR
HYPOTHESISInfrastructure

Legislation
Long-term plan
Special accountdamageinvestment

Urbanization
Economic growth
Climate changeWar
Economic recession
DisasterTightened financeInfrastructure

Legislation
Long-term plan
Special accountdamageinvestment

Urbanization
Economic growth
Climate changeWar
Economic recession
DisasterTightened financeInfrastructure

Legislation
Long-term plan
Special accountdamageinvestment

Urbanization
Economic growth
Climate changeWar
Economic recession
DisasterTightened financeInfrastructure

Legislation
Long-term plan
Special accountdamage

investment

Urbanization
Economic growth
Climate changeWar
Economic recession
DisasterTightened financeInfrastructure

Legislation
Long-term plan
Special accountdamageinvestment

Urbanization
Economic growth
Climate changeWar
Economic recession
DisasterTightened financeHYPOTHESISLegislation
Long-term plan
Special account

Infrastructuredamageinvestment

Urbanization
Economic growth
Climate changeWar
Economic recession
DisasterTightened finance

METHODS
Creating dataset of flood protection budgets, flood damage, and national income
since 1878
Examining documents and reports with disaster management, river management, andfinance1)Large disasters that triggered budget increase identified, and periods ofexpanding damage determined.
2)

Periods of increasing budgets following the large disasters determined.

3)
Periods of decreasing budgets and damage before the next large disasters
determined.

1 ESTABLISHING MODERNIZED MECHANISM OF FLOOD PROTECTION(1878-1906)
11%

enacted river law in 1896:
implementing national flood protection
project> 0.9% of national income
Russo-Japanese War in 1904
< 0.3%

lawdamage

Flood damage increased as country
modernized> 4% of national income> 11% in 1896river4%0.3%

0.9%budget

2 CONSTRUCTING STRUCTURAL FRAMEWORK IN
MAJOR RIVERS (1906-1931)
4%Long-term
planestablished long-term planning and special accountto secure multi-year commitment: 0.6%
1923 Great Kanto Earthquake & 1929 Great
Depression
0.2%

damagedisasters 4% of NI in 1910

0.2%
budget0.6%

3 WARTIME REGIME(1931-1945)
1934 Muroto Typhoon 4% of National
IncomeSino-JPN War, WWII
0.3%: lowest level

0.2-

damagereverse cycle because of military
expenditures

4%

0.5%

0.2%
budget4 A SERIES OF FLOOD DISASTERS (1945-1958)
10%,Th. Kathleen

Th. Isewan

respond to a series of severe floods in
1940s and 1950s
10% ofnational income in 1947 & 53
Budget increased to 0.7% but damage
remained at 2%.

damagerecover from World War IIag

2%
0.1%

0.7%
budgetbudget

5. IMPLEMENTING FLOOD PROTECTION
DURING HIGH GROWTH AND RECESSION (1958-2014)4.8%

long-term planningspecial account1959 Isewan Typhoon 4.8% of Nat Income<0.4% from 1983 till 2014 except 2004
Lost decades from 2000: 0.3-0.4%

damagedeveloped mechanisms for long-term planning & special accountingin 1960
Some 0.8% from 1977 until 2001

Ty. Isewan

0.4%
0.3% budget 0.8%budget

NO

Infrastructure

Legislation
Long-term plan
Special accountdamage

investment

Japan experienced
5 investment cycles
for the last 150 years

Urbanization
Economic growth
Climate changeWar
Economic recession
DisasterTightened finance2. INVESTMENT IN FLOOD
PROTECTION IN THE PHILIPPINES

FLOOD DAMAGE AND INVESTMENT IN FLOOD PROTECTION
1990- RATIO TO GDP
1.40 damage
1.20 1990-2012
TyphoonBudget<0.20%
Yolanda
1.00
2013
0.80
0.60
2014
0.40
2015
0.20
2017 2021 2022 20182020
Budget0.00
2016 2019 2023
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
Source: data from DBM, OCD, EM-DATBENEFIT
ESTIMATE
1,600
Damage without
DAMAGEWITHOUTINVESTMENT
Potential damage
investment
1,400
MILLION
USD
1,200
1,000
800
600
4002000

1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000

ACTUAL DAMAGE
DECREASE THEN INCREASEMILLION USD

Damage without
investment
Actualdamage800
600

Increase

400

A series oftyphoon disasters

2000WITHOUT ENOUGH INVESTMENTMILLION USD
1,400
1,600

Damage without
investment

1,200

Actualdamage

1,000
800
600
4002000Investment

Benefit3. HOW TO SECURE FUNDINGJAPAN: LONG-TERM PLAN FOR FLOOD PROTECTION
TO SECURE MULTI-YEAR COMMITMENT
1960. The Cabinet decided on 10-year plan withcommitted budget
 river works in major 100 rivers within 15 yrs
 budget planned for 0.7%/ yr of NI budget increased by over 40% in 1960
 invested 18 % more than planned between 1960-65

2nd plan by revising first plan at midyear
3rd plan, increased by 85 % in midyear of 2nd plan
4th plan, doubled budget, in 1972

SECURE COMMITMENTSpecial accountSeparated, independent fromgeneral accountMay lose flexibility from national
budgetary management

GeneralNational
project

account
Local
Governments

Electriccompanies

Specialaccount
Subsidies tolocal
governments

HOW TO MOBILIZE FINANCE FOR FLOOD PROTECTIONRESPONSIBILITY AND COST SHARING
Philippines
Flood national
Flood Prov/ CityJapan
Flood National
Flood Prov/ DistrictIndonesia
Flood Central
Flood Prov/ DistCentralProvincial/ District

Local community〇・〇 Construction, OM〇 Subsidy〇 CP for construction〇〇〇〇・Loan JKT・Subsidy DKA・JKT: OM・・JKT: Troop

RESULTS
1. external shocks, war, economic recession, disaster, and tightened national financeimpacted investments.
2 To secure sustainable financing- Establish financing mechanisms, mobilizing financial sources from national
government, local government, local communities is needed.
- Formulate legislation and long-term plans, following major flood disasters is crucial.

ご清聴ありがとうございます。
THANK YOU VERY MUCH
ISHIWATARI.MIKIO@JICA.GO.JP

33

National archives

Investment
in Flood Protection to GDP (%)
対GDP比の治水投資額(%)

FLOOD DAMAGE AND INVESTMENT IN FLOOD PROTECTION
19900.8

2019

0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0.01990-2012
2013

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

対GDP比の洪水被害額(%)
Flood damage to GDP (%)

1.0

1.2

Produced by Ryuya Kyuzaki, GIF