Development of Assessment Method for Future Urban Visions in the
Depopulating Period

Nozomu Kiuchi, Head of Division, National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management,
Japan, kiuchi-n92ta@nilim.go.jp
Hitoshi Nishino, Head of Division, National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management,
Japan, nishino-h92tc@nilim.go.jp
Tomohiko Sakata, Senior Researcher, National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management,
Japan, sakata-t92ta@nilim.go.jp

SummaryThis article explains the background, contents and results of a research project to develop atechnological system to assess urban policy by developing forecast models and urban
sustainability indices from the viewpoint of the quality of life, environmental load, administrative
costs, etc., to estimate and evaluate the future outcomes of the alternative planning policy
scenarios for future intensive structure of cities, thus supporting choice of most suitable plan.
Japanese is one of the most leading society experiencing decrease and aging of population,although urban sprawl is still taking place in local depopulating cities.
Keywords: sustainable urban structure, demographic change, assessment, land-use andtransportation model, scenario planning

1. Introduction
1.1

Background and Purpose of Study

With the arrival of depopulating and super-aging era in Japan, coping with population change is
accepted as one of the main issue of urban sustainability along with global environment, and publicfinance issues. The population, reaching its peak in 2005, is expected to fall to 70 percent of thepresent and the ratio of 65-year-old and over is expected to grow from 20.2% in 2005 to as muchas 40.5% in 2055. This population decline and aging is in progress in various cities, andenvironmental and financial restriction in addition, formation of sustainable city under suchchanges in economic and social situation is a critical urban policy issue.
In many local cities, under assumption of ever-increasing growth, led to continuous expansion andspread of the urban area to the suburbs, and in areas of high population decline, such issues ofmaintenance and updating of existing urban infrastructure such as roads and sewerage, and low
efficiency of public transportation, medical and welfare services, and management of open spaces
and vacant lots and houses generated in suburban and rural districts, are being focused on
Restructuring of city management strategy to offer administrative service of efficient, cost-effective,
and of high citizens’ satisfactory level is being urged. This situation necessitates city planningpolicy to take "selection and concentration" and sharp-based planning measures to cope with, andthis awareness seems to have led to the recent "compact city" attempts in some cities and"intensive urban structure" policy by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism.
Meanwhile, to take “selection and concentration" measures, facilitation of prior general consensusbuilding is preferable as to the object and contents, to their definite advantage and disadvantage
understandings, to reasons for being selected for intension or for not selected, and to range ofcompensation measures if taken. Instead of past urban policy distributing "fruits of the growth",current demand for urban policy is for "fare share of pain” or "minimum gross pain", and wide
consensus of this policy’s necessity, and open even-handed judgment is necessary to implement.
The National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management (NILIM), in support of this diversion,
begun “Research for Assessment Method for Future Urban and Regional Visions in the
Depopulating Period”, targeting local medium-size cities. In this research, which began in the fiscal
year 2008, we tried to construct a technological system to assess urban policy by developing
indices from the viewpoint of sustainability of administrative costs, the quality of life andenvironmental load, and so on, to estimate and evaluate the future outcomes of the alternativeplanning policy scenarios for future intensive structure of cities, thus supporting choice of mostsuitable plan. Utilization of such assessment tools to urban policy aimed for sustainability aremainly seen in cities with rapid growth, however, with Japanese experience of depopulation andaging, restrictions on finance, and environmental load, our investigation will be a unique case.
1.2

Research and Development Composition

The composition of the research topic corresponding to the supposed assessment process isshown in Fig. 1.
Assessment Process
by Local Government
Assembly & Processingof Data

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Center on
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Evaluation of Future
Urban Structure
Alternatives

Application Methods ofAssessment Input and
Output Data

SuburbanSubcenterMoving-in
Subdivision

Prediction of Future
Urban Structure
Alternatives

Suburban Core

Concentration to Inner City

Status Quo
Regional Coordination is Necessary

Building
Subdivision

Consideration of
Possible Alternative
Planning Measures

Technical Development
ThemesImages for Each Stage of Assessment• Assembly & processing ofnecessary zonal data

Systemized Organizing of
Optional Planning Measures• Database of various planningmeasures

Prediction Methods of Future
Urban Structure• Population distribution, landuse & traffic• Necessity of public service

Evaluation Methods of Future
Urban Structure• Sustainability evaluation
indicators and their calculations

Fig. 1 Composition of Assessment Process and Technical Development Themes
Technical development consists of 4 main themes; "Application Methods of Assessment Input and
Output data”, "Systematized Organization of Optional Planning Measures”, "Prediction Methods ofFuture Urban Structure”, and “Evaluation Methods of Future Urban Structure”. The emphasis was
put and the research was concentrated to two latter development themes.
In developing "Prediction Methods of Future Urban Structure”, we need to predict future changesof urban structure (population distribution land use and traffic flow movement, etc.) andaccompanying changes of the demand for infrastructure and other administrative services byalternative planning measure groups. In developing “Evaluation Methods of Future Urban

Structure”, in order to assess and compare sustainabilityof alternatives, indices for quality of life levels,
administrative costs, environmental impact levels, anddisaster safety level and method of calculation should bestudied.
Integration of land use planning and transportation
measure was significant achieve intensive urban
structure, the land use and transportation model was put
as the core of the prediction method. The composition of
the assessment tool was supposed as shown in Fig. 2.

2. Development of Future Urban Structure Estimation Method
2.1

Basic Concept and Principle

Assessment Tool
Inputᾟᵕ㻼㼛㼘㼕㼏㼥㻌㻹㼑㼍㼟㼡㼞㼑㼟䇻㻌㻭㼘㼠㼑㼞㼚㼍㼠㼕㼢㼑㼟ᾟᵕ

Future Estimation Model
OthernEstimation
Model

Land-use Transportation Model
L
Land-use

Transport㻵㼙㼜㼍㼏㼠㻌㻱㼟㼠㼕㼙㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚㻌㼠㼛㻌㻲㼡㼠㼡㼞㼑㻌㼁㼞㼎㼍㼚㻌㻿㼠㼞㼡㼏㼠㼡㼞㼑

Future Evaluation Model䠭䠫䠨

SafetyEnvironment

Vitality

Cost㻱㼢㼍㼘㼡㼍㼠㼕㼛㼚㻌㼛㼒㻌㻲㼡㼠㼡㼞㼑㻌㼁㼞㼎㼍㼚㻌㻿㼠㼞㼡㼏㼠㼡㼞㼑㻌㻭㼘㼠㼑㼞㼚㼍㼠㼕㼢㼑㼟

Output (Calculation & Display)
Utilization of Estimation & Evaluation Results

This method is intended to guide the relationshipbetween future urban structure and planning measure Fig. 2 Major Composition of thegroup. In the actual planning situations, the following 2 Assessment Tool
applying situations can be considered; when considering
required measures to implement the given future urban
structure (in advance as desired), and when considering future changes in urban structure by
options for a set of planning measures.
We investigated the major applications of existing and domestic and overseas land use andtransportation models, studied the reasons for introduction and application, overview of the applied
models, strengths and limitations rooted due to the model construction, and their application cases.
Further, such viewpoints as intimacy to applying to Japanese local cities were considered, and wehave set the model requirements and the following basic concepts and principles.

familiy nurturer age

Principles
The land use traffic model assumed to be a base, can be divided roughly into aggregation type andnon-aggregation type (such as micro-simulation models). In this project, practicality such as
easiness of input data purchase is considered and we decided to adopt the former.
The basic model structure was set as ahousehold size
comparatively simple and flexible one, where
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each sub-models to some extent can be
replaced to another.
Transportation model,
䡚‥…
particularly, is capable to be replaced by a model
used
in
each
city’s“Comprehensive‥‧
Transportation System Study” using “Person Trip䡚
Survey” data.
…
Under the depopulation context, analysis related
to age hierarchy and family type is important.
‧䡚
Therefore, household economy actors were
defined as households by family type (notindividuals) (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3 Household Type Definition
Concepts
The total numbers of location actors (population by age and number of employees by industry) areexogenously-given (“closed city”), and the location demands for each zones are decided under thecondition.
Land use and transportation markets are sequentially operated to configure each sub-model, andsimulated by stages. The prices are considered, however, a steady-state situation at any stage ofany market under the supply and demand coordination mechanism is not expressed.
Land-use market of a stage is influenced by the transportation market (such as by changes intraffic convenience) of the previous stage.
In
otherwords,
transportation
infrastructure development (supply) willaffect the demand for land use location
demand for the next stage (Figure 4).
The model as a whole is the pseudodynamic model, which aims to express
the difference in the speed of adjustment
between land-use and transportation
markets. The total number of location
actors will change at every stage andnever reach to a complete equilibrium.
2.2

Configuration of the Estimation
Model;GCT6$CUG;GCT

Location ofYear T

Transportationof Year T;GCT6 ;GCT6 Land-Use
Model

Land-Use
Model

Location ofYear T+5

Location ofYear T+10

Transportation
Model

Transportation
Model

Transportationof Year T+5

Transportationof Year T+10

Fig. 4 Sequential of Coordination of the Models
Under the above mentioned principles
and concepts, the basic structure of the
Future Urban Structure Estimation Model was designed as Fig.5. Each composing sub-models
were edited, and the proto-type of the model was completed.
Land-use & Planning Measures(Land Use Control, Development, Facility Locations, etc.)

T+5

Land-use ModelHousehold Type ≗Transformation Model
Number ofHouseholds by TypeTransportation Measures(Road Construction, Public Transport Improvement, Pricing, etc.)

T+5≘

Accessibility Model

Transportation Model≔

Trip Generation Model

Migration Rate Model
T+5

Number of Migration≙
by Household TypeHousehold Location
Model by Type10≛

Accessibility for
AgentsT+5

Firm Location
Model by Industry

Trip Distribution Model

Comm. Fl. Area
Vacant Fl. Area
Comm. Fl. Rent

Mode Choice Model≕

Land Supply Model

Residential Fl. Area
Vacant Fl. Area
Residential Fl. Rent

Use-Based Land Area

Residential Fl. Supply
Minimum Fl. Rent

Floor Supply Model

Land Consumption
Per Capita

Land Rent Model≖

Comm. Fl. Supply
Minimum Fl. Rent≜

Route Assignment Model

Land Consumption
Per Capita

T
Use-Based Land Rent

T Household-Type
Locations

Population ≚Conversion Model

Variable Input for Same StageT

T+5 Variable Input from EarlierStage≔ - 10 Model Operation Sequence

Age-Based
Population
Distribution

Employee T
Locations bylndustry

T

Required Time between
Zones by Modes ofTransportation

Ⅸ≲≸≷≳≸≷Ⅹ
Population Distribution Employee Distribution Use-based Land Area, Fl.
Area & Vacant Fl. Area
by Industry
by AgeHousehold Distribution
by TypeUse-based Land Rent &Fl. Rent

Link Traffic, Speed

Traffic Volume & Required
Time Between Zones byModes of Transportation

Fig. 5 Basic Structure of the Future Urban Structure Estimation Model Proto-type
2.3

Zone-size Transformation Tool

For the proto-type version model, it is required that various zone data for both the land use modeland the transportation model, are of the same zone size. By this assumption, in many cases,
small zones of the Person-Trip Survey are used, and it turned out from our case study that when

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Fig. 6 Example of Land Use Zones and Transportation Zones
there is a large gap between land use andtransportation zones as shown in Figure 6, and thesensitivity of the simulation result to the measurealternatives are not always sufficient.
The development of Zone-size Transformation Tools
was started based on this finding, so that the model isapplicable even if the sizes of the 2 zone systems arequite different. To cancel the differences between thezone sizes, the function to distribute and to integrate
the values in the zones according to the setting of"Intermediate Zones" that took a spatial difference ofeach zone was developed.
2.4

Land Use & Planning

Transportation Measures

A
B

Land Use Model
C

Transportation
Model

D
OutputFig. 7 Zone-size Transformation Steps

Sensibility Analysis and Operation
Verification

Sensitivity analysis of the Estimation Modelwith Zone-size Transformation function has
been implemented to check applicability. A
few type of “Ideal City Model (Fig. 8)” weredeveloped as a field to run this analysis. In
this field, we verified that the model’s
response to the planning measures weresensible and fit existing perception.
Accompanying the sensibility analysis was
the operation verification.
A “Future Urban Structure Estimation Model”
was developed through such studies andexaminations. The model is an application
without so-called GUI, though all areconstructed to operate on Windows
Operation System. In actual use, eachmodel can be controlled, by a batch file,configuring the execution/non-execution ofnecessaryfunctions(models),theforecasting period and intervals, and the
input-output files, handing data over to“Future Urban Structure Evaluation Model”,
etc. by a text editor.

Use District FAR(%)
Commercial Area (high density) Commercial
Commercial Area (low density) Neighborhood
Commercial
Residential
CommercialArea
Area(high(low density)
density) Residential
Low–rise ExcluResidential Area (low density) sive
Residential
Indusrial Area
Industrial

Zone Area
InhabitableArea

Urbanization-restricted Area
RailwayRoad & Bus Route

Train Station
Bus Stop

Fig. 8 An Example of “Ideal City” for Sensibility
Test3. Development of Future Urban Structure Evaluation Method
3.1

Basic Concept and Principle

Assessment metrics are the clues to compare the advantages and disadvantages of alternatives of
future urban visions or planning measure groups. They are also indices to "achieve sustainability
under future population decline and other constraints for each cities,” an in addition, an indicator toknow whether or not they are approaching, in the long term, towards "their achievable and aspiring
future city vision." On the other hand, considering the use of the evaluation indicators, 2 types of“prediction-type assessment” and “declaration-type assessment” where indices are declared aspolicy goals can be supposed. It would be easy if an ideal city vision can be defined numerically,
however, these figures are rarely seen in city master plans or other plans.
3.2

Deliberation of Evaluation Indices and Calculation Methods

Then, referring to the various plans and related research efforts in Table 1, candidate metrics wereextracted, considered from both ͆prediction-type assessment” and “declaration-type assessment”
applications. The “Prediction-type assessment” indices were examined by whether the change in“land use”, “night time and daytime population distribution”, and “transportation network conditions”
will change their figures. The “declaration-type assessment” indices were examined by whether
they are able to calculate by land use transportation model.
From these results, and considering whether they are mentioned in several different plans or research papers, and balance between the indices, we reached to some on 30 indicators (Table 2).
The calculation method were studied through fore mentioned investigation process.
Table 1 Efforts and Plans of Sustainability Indicators and Indices
Evaluation Items and Indices in MLIT Relevant Plans“Priority Plan for Social Infrastructure Development” MLIT
“Low Carbon City Development Guidance” MLIT
Description in Local Cities’ Plans
Quantitative Indicators in City Master Plans

Kasugai, Kashiwa, Matsudo, Ise, etc.

Qualitative Targets in City Master Plans

Sapporo, Toyama, Akita, Aomori, Hitachi, etc.

Evaluation Items and Indices in Various Investigations and Studies“Kei-han-shin Region Renovation Program” (MLIT)“Tokyo Region Renovation Program” (MLIT)
Monitoring (Ex-post
Evaluation) Indicator
Instances“Community Renovation Grants Indicators” (MLIT)“Indicators of Sustainable Development: Guidelines and Methodologies” United Nations“Global City Indicators” World Bank

“Regional Quality of Life Counts” DETRA, UK“Investigation Report on Role and Application of Person-Trip surveys”
NILIM, MLIT, Japan“SPARTACUS (System for Planning and Research in Towns and Cities
Land Use Transportation Model-Applied for Urban Sustainability)”, Commission of the EC
Overseas Research Projects“PROPOLIS (Planning and Research of Policies for Land Use andTransport for Increasing Urban Sustainability)”, Finland
Transportation Models

Assessment (Advance
Evaluation) Index Instances

Land Use Transportation Model-Applied
Overseas Cases

Existing Research Papers“Cambridge Futures” Project, UK“LUMOS” Project, Netherlands, etc.

Outputs from Domestic & Overseas“UrbanSim”, ”Delta”, “IRPUD”, “NYMTC-LUM”, “Vmcue”, “RURBAN2Land Use & Transportation Models
M. TAKAHASHI, A. DEGUCHI, “Method for Cost-Benefit Evaluation System of Impact by Forming Compact City”,
City Planning Review. Special issue, Papers on City Planning, Vol.42 No.3, 2007, pp.487-492, CPIJ Japan
T. KUROKAWA, M. TANIGUCHI, H. HASHIMOTO, and H. ISHIDA, “Cost of Infrastructure Improvement on
Sprawl Area : Costsaving Effect by Early Action” City Planning Review. Special issue, Papers on City Planning,
Vol.30 No.3, 1995, pp.121-126, CPIJ Japan
T. UJIHARA, M. TANIGUCHI, and R. MATUNAKA, “Ecological Footprint of Urban Retreat considering
Development Methods : Case Study of Maintenance of Urban Infrastructure Network in Residential Zones” City
Planning Review. Special issue, Papers on City Planning, Vol.42 No.3, 2007, pp.637-642, CPIJ Japan

Table. 2 Evaluation Indices of Future Urban Structure
Categories

No. of Inhabitants by Type(e.g. in 1km Radius City Centre)
Floor Area per capita

Habitation

Housing

Cost of Housing

Quality of Life

Required Time (by modes etc.)
Mode Split
No. of Public Transport Passengers

Public Transport

Access to Transportation Facilities

Clog
Accidents

Congestion rate

Accessibility
Water & Sewerage

Accessibility to City Cores
Parks & Green Area per Capita, Green Coverage

Communication
Crime

Parks & Green
Community
Crime Prevention

Disaster Mitigation

Disaster Mitigation

Medical Care

Medical Care

Global Env.

Global Warming

Air Pollution
NatureEnergy Resources
Waste
Activity Distribution

Emission
Green Coverage
Fuel
Waste Emission
Industry
Distribution Costs
Commerce
TourismGDP, GRP
Land Price

Infrastructure

SafetyEnvironment
Vitality

3.3

Quality
Cost
Features

Transport

ForeDeclare cast

IndicesIndustrial Activities

Economic Growth
Economic Impact

No. of Traffic Accident Victims
Sewage Serving Population Percentage
Population Composition Balance
No. of Crime, Crime Rate
No. of People with Hardship in Home-returning in Case of Disaster
Difficult Areas of Fire-fighting
Wide Street Density
No. in Houses in Hazardous Area
Quakeproof Building Rate
Population of Accessible Area to Medical Facilities
CO2 Emissions (by sector)
Amount of Fixed CO2 by GreenNOX Emissions
Green & Agricultural Land Coverage
Fuel Consumption
Waste Emission Amount per Capita
No. of Employee
Time Reduction & Punctuality
Commercial Sales Total
Accessibility between Tourist Spots
GDP & GDP per Capita
Land Price, Land Rent, Volatility

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Deliberation of Cost Estimation for Public Services

The costs for public services are also important and indispensable to evaluate and judge efficiency
and sustainability of future urban structure, and calculation methods are studied. A study by NILIM
in 2009 March (Fig. 9) reveals that although it differs depending on the services, nearly half, inaverage, of the responded
Proportion to the Number of Responses (1,453 Municipalities)municipalities has recently
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
executed some kind of
Buildings
OfficeOffice
Buildings
255
269
845
22 62
future public service cost ic Public
Schools
Schools
353
232
796
1062
estimation. However, only
PublicHousing
PublicHousing
257
233
831
8 124
half of them has considered
Roads
Roads
186
280
905
7 75
changeofeitherBridges
Bridges
191
252
882
4 124
demography, soundness of
Waterworks
Waterworks
366
232
696
7 152
construction,or
urban Sewage
SystemSewageSystem
351
249
699
9 145
structure,andother SocialSocial
WelfareWelfare
348
219
796
29 61
estimations are just trend
Education
Education
287
214
860
14 78
arbageCollection
GarbageCollection
forecasting.
242
249
818
7 137
Ploughing 73
Ploughing

In the examination of
calculation technique, wehave taken 4 study reportsof public cost calculations;bya)MLIT,b)NILIM,c)Toyama
City,andd)Ibaraki Prefecture. Aftercomparisonofpublic&Fire Defence
Defence&
Fire Fire
Defence&…
Ambulance Service
PublicTransport
PublicTransportothersothers13
23

157

684

204

220

194

229

183

3

Considered Future Change
No Study
No Answer

0

539

801
672

8
6

220
352

1231
Only Trend Forecast
Multiple Answer

Fig. 9 Implementation Status of Future Public Service Cost
Estimation by Municipalities

service items studied, thecharacters of the services
weredividedbetween"network type" and "hub type"by the offering form of service.
We have categorized these
items by above service forms,
impact from future population
age structure and distribution,andrelationtopolicyvaluables, and taken 4 public
service cost items; “roadmaintenance”, “visiting nursing
care for elderly”, “public
transport”,
and“public
schools.”
From these studies calculation
methods from the outputs ofthe Estimation Model, aredefined.
3.4

Sensibility and Tradeoff Analysis

Table 3 This is a Figure caption
Form ofService
Provision

Network
Type

Public Service
Category

Population
MLIT NILIM Toyama Ibaraki Change Impact
Age
Distri(2009) (2009) (2004) (2008)
Structure bution

Road Maintenance

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Waterworks
Sewage System
Garbage Collection
Visiting Nursing
Care for Elderly
Public Transport

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Public Schools

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Feeding Centers

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Kindergartens

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Nursery Centers

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Community Centers䖃Fire Defence,
Ambulance Service

䖃

䕿

䕿

Adoption

䖂

䖂

䖃

䖃

City
Planning
Area
Urban Area䕿䖃

Hub Type Parks

PolicyValuable䖂
Location
Density
Location
Density
Location
Density
Location
Density
Location
Density
Location
Density
Location
Density䖂

1. Ministry of Land Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism, “Investigation on Financial Effect by Urban
Structure”, 2009, Japan
2. National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, “Assignment of Administrative andResident-Imposed Costs Estimation Caused by Changes Suburban Residential Areas”, 2009, Japan
3. Study Group on Compact City Formation of Toyama City, “Research and Investigation on Compact City
Formation”, 2004,
Japan
4. Ibaraki Prefecture, “Research and Investigation on Compact City Formation in Ibaraki Prefecture”, 2008,
Japan

From above studies, we have constructed a “Future Urban Structure Evaluation Model” the input of
which are the outputs from “Future Urban Structure Estimation Model” and other data used only forindex calculation (such as school areas), and which consists of many sub module programs of
calculation methods. The model is constructed to operate also on Windows Operation System,and the modules are also designated to accept replacement by more improved calculation
technique in the possible future.
The verification of the trade-off relations between evaluation indices including the public service
costs were executed, and sensitivity analyses was done also, using the “Ideal City Model”
mentioned beforehand. As a whole, the total assessment tool was confirmed to respond correctly
and logically to the planning measure group alternatives in the “Ideal City”.

4. Case Studies of Assessment Method
4.1

Overall Condition and Planning Agendas of the City

Joetsu City is a local city located in the southwest of Niigata Prefecture. The old city was approvedin 1981 by an equal amalgamation of Takada city and Naoetsu City. In 2005, new city was born bya large amalgamation with vicinal 13 municipalities.
The total populations is 208,082 (by 2005 National Census), and with slight exception from 1975 to
1985, the City’s population continues to decrease almost consistently after the WWII
(Fig. 10). By the forecast of National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, it is estimated to fall down to158,425 by 2035. Population increases from1980 to 2005 can only be seen in old Joetsu
City and Kubiki Ward, and population decrease in other 12 wards are sharp. By age
divisions, over 65 years shares 24.2%, andespecially in Oshima, Maki, and Yasuzuka
Fig. 10 Population Change in Joetsu City

Ward, the share rapidly grew, and recently reachedabout 40%. The population decrease is also remarkable, and the progress of a further population decrease is expected in these districts. Densely inhabited district (DID) keeps expanding with the progress of
infrastructure provision around Kasuga-yama where
the City Hall locates (Figure 2). DID population density is consistently decreasing, and after 1995, fell below 40 people/ha.
The city planning district, occupies 32.9% of the administrative area, and is composed of three city planning districts, among which only the Joetsu City Planning District contains the urbanization control area.
The population density in the urbanization promotion
area is low below 30 people/ha. As for FAR regulations, 500% is designated in the centers of Takada,
Naoetsu, Kasuga-yama, and also around the Joetsu
General Hospital, however, sufficiency rate is very low
and they are misfit. The Hokuriku Shinkansen stationis under construction at the southern edge of the built
up area and is planned to function in 2014.

LegendDensely Inhabited
District (DID)
DID in 1970
DID in 2005
Naoetsu DID
Takada DID
Railway
City Planning
Area
Urban Promotion
Area

Fig. 11 Spread of DID

As mentioned, the urban structure of Joetsu City needs to be intensified, however, the geography
and the story behind urban formation does not easily admit it, and there are little incentives working to intensify population and urban functions in the city core. Therefore, a strategy is needed toprovide incentive to promote accumulation in the city core area together with control of accumulation in the suburbs. Moreover, conflicting effort to 1) accept population decline in total, but maintain population in the core and existing built-up area, 2) provide and maintain infrastructure of main
roads and streets, but control related costs, 3) maintain train and bus service frequency, but control related costs will be necessary.
4.2

Preparation of Planning Alternatives

To work on the above-mentioned, the following alternatives were made, taking in account of thecity’s policy and plans(Fig. 12).
Plan A: Do Nothing Alternative
A plan that basically maintains urban scale and various measures at the same level as current
state.
Plan B: Business as Usual Alternative (continue expansion)
A plan that expands the urban scale more further than the current state and the infrastructure etc.
are newly constructed in the expansion urban area. Various measures are maintained basically at
the same level as the current state.
Plan C: Multi-Core Concentration Alternative - without evacuation
A plan based on the current city plan, and accumulation is promoted to the core (in urban area inthe core settlements) located in each districts. Measures in other areas are almost maintained likethe current state.
Plan D: Multi-Core Concentration Alternative - with evacuation
A plan based on the current city plan, but aggressively evacuate from suburbs to promoteaccumulation around the JR Shin-etsu Line stations. Promote accumulation to district core, andstrengthen development control and segmentalize large built up areas.

3 Core Concentration Alternative- without evacuation (Plan E)

3 Core Concentration Alternative- with evacuation (Plan F)

Multi-Core Concentration Alternative- without evacuation (Plan C)

Multi-Core Concentration Alternative- with evacuation (Plan D)

Do Nothing Alternative (Plan A)

Business As Usual Alternative (Plan B)

Table 4 Concept Plans of the 6 Planning Alternatives

Plan E: 3 Core Concentration Alternative - without evacuation
Promote accumulation only around Takada, Kasuga-yama, and Naoetsu where it is the highest in
the city, and various measures are maintained almost maintained like the current state.
Plan F: 3 Core Concentration Alternative - with evacuation
Promote accumulation only around Takada, Kasuga-yama, Naoetsu, and a new Shin-etsu line
station, and aggressively evacuate from suburbs. The scale of the core settlements is shrinked,
the service level is decreased, and development control is strengthened.
According to the ideas of Alternative Plans A to F, definite area of expansion and evacuation,
conditions for urban facilities and traffic service levels etc. were set, and input data to theassessment tool were created.
4.3

Estimation and Evaluation by the Assessment Model

Fig. 12 shows the rate of change from 2010 to 2035 of the population forecast value according to a
28 wards based on the municipality region before the amalgamation. The population decreases inall alternatives and all districts, and the decrease ratio is from 5% to 50%. In the suburbs, there
are less decrease where developments are planned, and more decrease where evacuations areplanned but not as much as intended. Difference between the alternatives can hardly be seen in
Takada district. Moreover, the effect of the evacuation is greatly seen in the core settlements along
the Hoku-hoku Line (Uragawara district and etc.).
Plan C: Multi-Core
Concentration Alternative

Plan E: 3 Core
Concentration Alternative- without evacuation- without evacuation

Plan B: Business as
Usual Alternative

Plan D: Multi-Core
Concentration Alternative(continue expansion)- with evacuation

Plan F: 3 Core
Concentration Alternative- with evacuation

Plan A:Do Nothing Alternative

Legend

䢯䢷䢧到

䢯䢴䢲䢧到

䢯䢴䢷䢧到

䢯䢵䢲䢧到

䢯䢵䢷䢧到

䢯䢶䢲䢧到

䢯䢶䢷䢧到

䢯䢷䢲䢧到

Fig. 12 Change of Population during 2010-2035
Fig. 13 to Fig. 17 shows the indices that had distinctive differences between the alternatives in2035. As for effect of accumulation to core area and existing built up area (Fig.13), the relations of
the alternatives are as intended (B<A<C<E<D<F) but the differences are at maximum below 10%.
As for the number of public transport users (Fig.14), Plan F (3 Core Concentration with evacuation)is the largest, and plan B (BAU) is the smallest, although the difference is only 3%.

ᣐⅬෆ䞉᪤ᡂᕷ⾤ᆅෆேཱྀ
Persons䠄ே䠅0

As for CO2 emissions, there is little differA: Do Nothing
ence from transport (Fig. 15), but there is
B: Business as Usualtendency such as; “DNA Ҹ BAU”, “3 Core
C: Multi-Core Concentration
Concentration” < “Multi-core Concentration”,
and “without evacuation” < “with evacuation” D: Multi-Core Concentration
E: 3 Core Concentrationfrom household and industry (Fig. 16).
F: 3 Core Concentration

10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00032,80332,31333,45434,57333,71035,632

As for road maintenance costs (Fig. 17), Fig. 13 Populationබඹ஺㏻฼⏝⪅ᩘin the Core Area -2035
Plan B (BAU) was highest, then Multi-Core
Persons䠄ே䠅
0
5,000
10,00015,00020,000concentration and 3 Core Concentration
A: Do Nothing
14,911
were the minimums. Multi-Core Concentration alternatives require new comparatively
B: Business as Usual
14,869wide road provisions in the suburbs, C: Multi-Core Concentration
15,059-without evacuation
whereas 3-Core Concentration alternatives D: Multi-Core
Concentration
14,908-with evacuation
require comparatively narrow road proviE: 3 Core Concentration
14,881-without evacuation
sions in the built up area; thus as for total
F: 3 Core Concentration
15,321-with evacuation
length, the latter exceeds the former, but asCO2ⓎⓎ ⏕㔞䠄㐠㍺㒊㛛䠅
for maintenance cost, the former exceeds Fig. 14 Public Transport
Users -2035
tons/day䠄䡐/᪥䠅
the latter.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600

5. Conclusion

A: Do Nothing398

B: Business as Usual

397

Concentration
398
In this paper, the development process of C: Multi-Core-without evacuation
Concentration
the “Future Urban Vision Assessment Tool” D: Multi-Core-with402
ev ac uation
has been described. We believe that under
E: 3 Core Concentration
403-without evacuationa different social situation, some of the soF: 3 Core Concentration
396-with ev ac uation
cial sustainability indicators should be recCO2ⓎⓎ ⏕㔞䠄Ẹ⏕⏘ᴗ㒊㛛䠅Fig.
15
CO2 Emissions(transport) -2035
ognized differently, such as growing awaretons/day
䠄䡐/᪥䠅
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
ness in Japan for the cost of taking care of
the elderly.
A: Do Nothing459
B: Business as Usual

455

As for the case study, the appropriateness
C: Multi-Core Concentration495
of the calculations are yet to be verified, as-without evacuation
Concentration
366
Person Trip Survey data and Tax lot data D: Multi-Core -with
ev ac uation
E:
3
Core
Concentration443
was not obtained and we had to rely on-without evacuation
F: 3 Core Concentration339
some estimation, but the following sugges-with ev ac uation
tions were obtained.
Fig. 16 CO2㐨㊰⥔ᣢ⟶⌮䝁䝇䝖䠄㒔ᕷィ⏬㐨㊰䠅
Emissions (household and industry) -2035¥100 billion/year䠄൨෇/ᖺ䠅
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
For population accumulation to core area, it
A: Do Nothing
8.8
is effective if there is less number of cores,
and some evacuation measures were also
B: Business as Usual
16.4
taken. However the total decrease of the C: Multi-Core Concentration
11.3-without evacuationcase study city was to rapid, the accumula- D: Multi-Core
Concentration
11.3-with ev ac uation
tion was only up to a level of less decrease,
E: 3 Core Concentration
9.2-without evacuation
but no increase. If increase is to be inF: 3 Core Concentration
9.4-with ev ac uation
tended, more drastic measures seems to benecessary. However, the study shows that Fig. 17 Road Maintenance Costs -2035
as for CO2 emission reduction from household and industry, and road maintenance cost savings, the alternative still makes meaningful differences, and that we should give up from consuming too much land.