Transport CO2 and the
The
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Paris
Climate Mobility
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Where
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Six Years
A SummaryAbout the International
Transport ForumThe International Transport Forum at the OECD is anintergovernmental organisation with 63 member
countries. It acts as a think tank for transport policy andorganises the Annual Summit of transport ministers.
The ITF is the only global body that covers all transportmodes. The ITF is administratively integrated with theOECD, yet politically autonomous.
www.itf-oecd.org

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Transport CO2 and the Paris Climate Agreement: Where Are We Six Years Later? © OECD/ITF 2021

Climate change will not be stopped without decarbonising the movement ofpeople and goods. But how is transport reflected in national decarbonisationplans? This paper reviews the role of transport in the Nationally Determined
Contributions under the Paris Agreement, which outline the climate actions of
194 countries.

Are the updated NDCs
showing more ambition to
cut transport CO2?
More than 190 nations committed to reducing greenhouse gas
emissions sufficiently to limit global warming to 1.5°C when
they signed the Paris Agreement in December 2015.1 To
achieve this goal, they also agreed to draw up national
decarbonisation strategies, widely known as Nationally
Determined Contributions (NDCs). Significantly, these NDCs arerevised and tightened every five years.
The transport-related commitments made in the first-round
NDCs were insufficient. A review of the 2015 NDCs by theInternational Transport Forum missed "clear pathways andmeasures". It concluded that the "Paris climate agreement
must still be translated into concrete actions for the transport
sector".2 Second-round NDCs were due for the 26th Conferenceof the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow in November 2021, offering
an opportunity to take stock of progress in transport
decarbonisation commitments since Paris.
Three high-level indicators help to capture progress madesince 2015. Firstly, do NDCs mention transport? Secondly, dothey list concrete transport decarbonisation measures?
Thirdly, do they include a CO2 reduction target for the country's
transport sector? Use of the term "transport" in an NDC Is
counted as a mention. A measure is an announced intervention
to reduce transport emissions, such as increasing theavailability of charging infrastructure or investing in public
transport. Also counted are mitigation objectives for transport
sub-sectors, for instance "reducing CO2 emissions of new

1 There are 192 Parties to the Paris Agreement. Eritrea and Iraq

submitted NDCs despite not being signatories. Calculations are
based on the 194 NDCs submitted. For simplicity, “countries” isused synonymously for “Parties”, which also include non-state
entities, e.g. the European Union.

vehicles by X per cent". A target is a quantified reduction
objective for overall national transport CO2 emissions.
All three indicators point towards an increased commitment
to transport decarbonisation. Since COP21, the number ofcountries mentioning transport has risen by 19 percentage
points, those who list measures by 22 percentage points andthose setting targets by eight percentage points. Figure 1 showsthe evolution of the three indicators between the first andsecond rounds of NDCs submitted to the UNFCCC.
Figure 1. Share of NDCs with transport mentions, measuresand targets, 2015 and 2021 (100%=194)
120%
97%

100%

80%

78%

80%

58%

60%
40%
20%

8%

16%

0%
Parties mentioning
transport

2015

Parties providing
transport mitigation
measures

Parties providing atransport CO2
mitigation target

2021

Almost all Parties now acknowledge the importance oftransport for limiting climate change. In 2015, slightly above
three quarters (78%) of countries having submitted their first
NDCs evoked transport in them. This share has now risen to
97%. Only six countries do not mention transport at least once
2 Transport CO

2 and the Paris Climate Agreement: Reviewing theimpact of Nationally Determined Contributions (ITF, 2018)

Transport CO2 and the Paris Climate Agreement: Where Are We Six Years Later? © OECD/ITF 2021

3

in their NDC. This increase underlines the almost universal
recognition of transport as a critical sector in achieving thegoals of the Paris Agreement. On average, countries thatmention transport refer to it 15 times in their NDCs. However,
the average is misleading. While 14 countries mention
transport only once, others do so extensively: Colombia's
updated NDC includes 112 references to transport, and South
Sudan's 117.
The number of countries that propose concrete measures toreduce their transport-sector CO2 emissions has risen
significantly. In 2015, only little more than half (57%) ofcountries proposed transport decarbonisation measures intheir first NDC. With the second round of NDCs for COP26, thisshare has risen by half to 80% of all NDCs. The actions evokedrange from increasing the share of alternative fuels in roadtransport to scaling up public transport. Some countries
propose specific CO2-reduction targets for sub-sectors oftransport, such as phasing out cars with combustion engines orreaching a certain share of electric vehicles by a specific date.
The quality of measures in second-round NDCs appears tohave improved with regard to their mitigation potential. The
ITF's analysis of the first-round NDCs found that the term"measures" often referred to desired outcomes rather than toactions to reach them or were vague and high-level only. An
initial review of selected second-round measures reveals thatfor some countries at least, measures have become more
concrete and likely to be effective. One NDC, for instance, only
referred to "fuel efficiency measures" in 2016, while the 2021
NDC includes a variety of proposals, such as changing fiscal
policies on fossil fuel by 2025 and establishing efficiency
standards for the import of all vehicles. A more detailed analysis
is needed to ascertain this first impression, however.
The share of countries with a transport-wide CO2 reduction
target is still very low. A disappointing 8% of the NDCs
submitted in 2015 contained a concrete target for reducing thetransport sector's carbon emissions. This share has now
doubled to 16%. While this increase is significant, only one insix countries sets itself a concrete, measurable, time-boundobjective for transport decarbonisation. This contrasts
unfavourably with the fact that 92% of NDCs give an economywide mitigation target. While providing an overall target may
be more or less self-evident, sector-specific targets make aglobal objective operational by driving effective action in clearly
defined policy areas. The gap between a global decarbonisation
objective and a list of policy measures to decarbonise transport
highlights that most countries need to focus on quantifying theclimate impacts of their transport sector and of the steps toreduce transport emissions.

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Only two of 194 countries have set net-zero transport
emissions by 2050 as their decarbonisation target. This
compares with 33 Parties (17%) committed to making theirwhole economy carbon-neutral by 2050. Figure 2 shows thefour types of transport mitigation targets and their sharesdefined by Parties in their NDCs.
Figure 2. Types of transport mitigation targets defined byParties in their NDCs (100% = 194 Parties)
6%

4%

3%

2%

85%

Baseline scenario target
Base year emission target
No target

Fixed level target
Trajectory target

How much will the new
NDC commitments cut
future transport emissions?
The updated commitments are still not enough - but theywould bring into reach a pathway to containing global
warming. Feeding the transport-related information from thelatest available NDCs into the International Transport Forum's
global transport models reveals how transport CO2 emissions
would develop if all commitments made in the second round of
NDCs were implemented. Figure 3 compares the level of CO2
emissions in this "NDC scenario" with two other scenarios for2030, taken from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021. In the NDC
scenario, transport CO2 emission levels fall by 2030 ̶ unlike inthe "Recover" scenario, which is an extrapolation of the world's
transport decarbonisation efforts as known in 2020. The NDC
scenario reduces transport CO2 only marginally less than the"Reshape" scenario, which assumes ambitious decarbonisation
policies beyond those in place in 2020 and would bring the
1.5°C goal into reach. Under current NDCs, transport's carbon
footprint on a national level would decrease from 5532 million

Transport CO2 and the Paris Climate Agreement: Where Are We Six Years Later? © OECD/ITF 2021

Metric tons CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) in 2020 to 5073m
MtCO2e in 2030, equalling two-thirds of the reduction underthe "Reshape" scenario. This requires that all 2030 NDC targets
are fully implemented. The NDC scenario also makes optimistic
assumptions about the impact of CO2 reduction measures
where quantitative targets have not been defined.

The least-emitting countries are most strongly committed todecarbonising transport. The 16% of Parties that have laid out
a transport decarbonisation target in their NDC account for amere 6% of global transport CO2 emissions. Only two of the tenlargest emitters have a specific transport-sector CO2 reduction
target, Japan and Canada.

Figure 3. Global national-level transport CO2 emissions by
scenario

Figure 4. Global national-level transport CO2 emissions by
scenario and region
2500

7000

2000

5000

Milliion MtCO2e

Milliion MtCO2e

6000

4000
3000
2000

1500
1000
500

1000
0

0
Recover
2020

NDC
scenario

Reshape2030

Who shows most ambition
to decarbonise transport?
The decarbonisation commitments of emerging economies
are more ambitious on average than those of the big emitters.
Figure 4 shows how Latin America (LAC), the Middle East/North
Africa (MENA) and the OECD Pacific regions are on track under
their current NDC commitments to reduce transport CO2 evenmore than in the ambitious "Reshape" scenario of the ITF
Transport Outlook 2021. The LAC region is set to cut transport
CO2 by almost 18% by 2030 compared to 2020 levels under the
NDC scenario, from 518 to 426 million MtCO2e, while thereduction under the "Reshape" scenario would be less than 3%.
The decarbonisation targets set by some countries inthese regions more than offset weaker commitments byneighbours who sometimes have more carbon-intense
economies. Among those with ambitious targets are countries
like Chile and Colombia or Mongolia and Nepal. The new NDC
commitments of the world's highest-emitting regions also put
them closer to a 1.5°C pathway but are not yet enough. Neither
the US/Canada region nor Asia will outperform the "Reshape"
scenario, based on their second-round NDCs

2020

2030
Recover

2030
NDC scenario

2030
ReshapeFour recommendations

1

Set clear mitigation targets for thetransport sector

Transport must increase efforts to reduce its CO2
emissions. In particular, the largest emitters must do more toensure that the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement will be met.
Mentioning transport in national decarbonisation plans is notenough to set a clear path to less CO2 emissions. Countries
should develop transport decarbonisation roadmaps tailored totheir specificities. These roadmaps should set quantifiable CO2
reduction targets and underpin them with mitigation measuresthat deliver on the benchmark objectives.

2

Ensure national decarbonisation plans are
fully reflected in the NDCs

Several Parties to the Paris Agreements havedeveloped detailed national plans to decarbonise their

Transport CO2 and the Paris Climate Agreement: Where Are We Six Years Later? © OECD/ITF 2021

5

economies and their transport sector, yet have not included
these domestic decarbonisation strategies in their Nationally
Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. As NDCs
are the leading international benchmark for national-level
decarbonisation efforts, the decarbonisation plans of Parties
should be fully reflected in their NDCs.

3

Break down silos between transport andrelated sectors. Include all stakeholders.

Transport is transversal by nature. It is linked to sectors
ranging from energy to trade to tourism and many others. The
revision process for the next round of NDCs in 2025 must
capture the expertise of different industries and transport
stakeholders to enhance NDCs with a more comprehensive androbust national decarbonisation strategy. An inclusive
approach of consultations with a broad range of stakeholders,
including civil society and communities particularly affected byclimate change, will create a shared sense of purpose andaccountability and improve governance of any nationaltransport decarbonisation strategy.

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A note on methodology
Assessing the impact of transport commitments in NDCs on
global transport sector CO2 emissions is not straightforward.
Only 16% of Parties set transport sector-specific CO2 reduction
targets that can be directly used for such an assessment. For allother Parties, assumptions regarding their transport sector
ambitions had to be inferred from the information available intheir NDCs, and these may not accurately reflect actual
aspirations. The assessment method used here is based on aclassification of countries into four different groups. For eachcountry group, a distinct method is applied to estimate thelikely transport-sector CO2 reduction ambition. Figure 5 shows
the decision tree used to classify the countries and outlines theassessment method for each country group.
Figure 5. Classification of NDCs into country groups

Enhance co-ordination of climate
policy across national ministries

Ministries with responsibility for the environment are
typically in charge of climate policy and submitting NDCs to the
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. While input
from other ministries is often sought and provided, enhancing
exchange and co-ordination further in the preparation of
the next round of NDCs will help better reflect needs
and opportunities in different sectors.

More specifically, the assessment methods for the different
country groups are as follows:
Country group 1 (16% of NDCs): NDCs of countries that fall into
this group provide a transport-specific CO2 reduction target. It
is assumed that this target will be met. The achieved transportsector CO2 reduction of that country is directly derived. Where
the target is defined as a reference to a business-as-usual
scenario (BAU), it is assumed that the recover scenario of ITF
Transport Outlook 2021 corresponds to the business-as-usual
scenario of the respective country.
Country group 2 (65% of NDCs): NDCs of these countries do notprovide a specific reduction target for transport CO2. However,they identify a set of transport measures that will contribute totransport-sector CO2 reductions if implemented. Countries in

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Transport CO2 and the Paris Climate Agreement: Where Are We Six Years Later? © OECD/ITF 2021

this group are subdivided based on ambition level. The
ambition level depends on the exhaustiveness and level ofdetail of the proposed transport CO2 reduction measures.
Countries with NDCs that provide a high level of detail and acomprehensive set of transport measures are assumed to havea high ambition level. For these, transport-sector CO2
reductions are assumed to be (70%) in line with the "Reshape"
scenario of the ITF Transport Outlook 2021. In the "Reshape"
scenario, countries achieve a decarbonisation pathway thatputs the 1.5°C goal of the Paris Agreement into reach. If
ambition levels are lower because the proposed measures areless detailed or less exhaustive, CO2 reductions in transport are
assumed to be lower than in the "Reshape" scenario (i.e.
ranging from 0% to 50% of the reductions achieved in the"Reshape" scenario).

About this projectThis paper was produced as part of the International Transport
Forum's Decarbonising Transport initiative (DTi) in its
workstream 1, "Tracking Progress". The authors of this paper
are Aurélie Kopacz, María Santos Alfageme and Elisabeth
Windisch (project lead).

Country group 3 (15% of NDCs): NDCs of these countries
neither provide transport-specific targets nor mitigation
measures. However, they mention transport as a relevant
sector for reducing CO2 emissions and provide an economywide CO2 reduction target. In the absence of any further
information regarding the transport sector, it is assumed thatthe share of transport sector CO2 emissions will remain stable
over time. The economy-wide CO2 reduction target is assumed
to also apply to the transport sector and be achieved by 2030.
Country group 4 (3% of NDCs): NDCs of these countries either
do not mention the transport sector or do not provide any
further detail on a specific transport-sector target, on transportmitigation measures, or an economy-wide target. In theabsence of any such additional information, it is assumed thattransport-sector emissions will grow in line with the countries'
baseline scenarios, that is, the "Recover" scenario of the ITF
Transport Outlook 2021.

Further reading
Transport CO2 and the Paris Climate Agreement: Reviewing
the impact of Nationally Determined Contributions (ITF, 2018)
ITF Transport Outlook 2021 (ITF, 2021)
NDC Registry (UNFCCC, 2021)
Transport Policy Matters (blog)

Transport CO2 and the Paris Climate Agreement: Where Are We Six Years Later? © OECD/ITF 2021

7

Transport CO2 and theParis Climate Agreement:
Where Are We Six Years Later?

This paper takes stock of how transport figures innational decarbonisation strategies six years after
the Paris Agreement. Have more countries defined
decarbonisation targets for the sector? Are thesemore ambitious than they were in the first Nationally
Determined Contributions submitted in 2016?

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