DIPLOMACY
Vol.79, May/ Jun. 2023

Contents of Features

68

Belarus is subordinate to Russia to protect the Lukashenko regime

74

The Russo-Georgian War: Lessons from Western non-intervention

80

Kazakhstan: The dilemma of war and political reform

Lukashenko seeks backing from Putin, but is faced with the contradiction that Putin aspires the incorporation of Belarus into Russia.
Michitaka Hattori (Hokkaido University)
When Russia invaded Georgia, the Western countries did not intervene. The 'success story' for Russia led to the invasion of Ukraine.
David Goginashvili (Embassy of Georgia in Tokyo)
How are political reforms being implemented in Kazakhstan amidst the economic difficulties since the invasion of Ukraine?
Masaaki Higashijima (University of Tokyo)

TREND2023.
92

The political decision of the two leaders to revive shuttle diplomacy

99

Dialogue ◎Aiming to Reinforce Extended Deterrence: Japan-US-South Korea Security cooperation is entering a new phase

Relations between Japan and South Korea have started to improve. Can the two countries improve the relations based on theperception of the North Korean threat?
Tetsuya Hakoda (Asahi Shimbun)

As the frameworks between the three countries are reactivated, the question arises as to the nature of the new cooperation
posture over US extended nuclear deterrence and economic security.
Junya Nishino (Keio University) and Tsuneo Watanabe (Sasakawa Peace Foundation)

110

Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US: Taiwan's foreign policy strategy and the situation in the Taiwan Strait

118

Background of ‘rupture of diplomatic relations with Taiwan' in Central America

122

How long will Myanmar's ‘stalemate’ last?

128

The Middle East: 20 years after the Iraq War

134

Japan's role in ending the war in Ukraine

140

Sudan's democratic revolution: The Process of setbacks-Why did the 'two armies' clash?

China's response to Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US was surprisingly calm. Using various data, the author deciphers the latest
developments in the US, Taiwan and China.
Rira Monma (Takushoku University)
China is establishing diplomatic relations with the countries in Central America, where democracy and neoliberalism are inretreat. The next focus for Taiwan will be the change of government in Guatemala next year.
Chihiro Fueta (Komazawa University)

The extension of the state of emergency in Myanmar indicates that the military is unable to control the transition of power. A
diplomatic approach is also difficult.
Yoshihiro Nakanishi (Kyoto University)
How did the Iraq War affect Iraq, the Middle East and the US-led post-Cold War international order?
Satoshi Ikeuchi (University of Tokyo)
The author considers the main issues for ending the war in Ukraine and the role Japan should play in this process.
Higashi Daisaku (Sophia University)
The author describes how Sudan's democratisation, which was underway after the 2019 revolution, collapsed as a result of aclash between two military organisations that supported and then overthrew the dictatorship.
Yuko Tobinai (Morioka University)

Special Feature:

The G7 Hiroshima Summit
6Building order in solidarity with developing and emerging countries

12

The Presidency, Japan making the most of 'face-to-face diplomacy' - the Global South playeda leading role in the shadows

The support and cooperation of developing and emerging countries is essential for continued support to Ukraine. What role canJapan, which has faced all countries on an equal footing, play after the summit?
Shin’ichi Kitaoka (University of Tokyo)

The key word for rallying countries with different values - not democracy, but 'rule of law'. The author, who interviewed theparticipants at the event, gives a breathtaking account of face-to-face diplomacy.
Keiko Iizuka (Yomiuri Shimbun)

16

Thinking about nuclear issues in Hiroshima

22

Differences in perceptions of China between the US and Europe

26

G7 Summit: How the world sees it

The wish for nuclear abolition in the atomic bombed city of Hiroshima and the harsh reality in Ukraine. How did the Hiroshima
Vision position the two and what message did it send out?
Hideaki Miyama (Hiroshima Television Corporation)
In order to resolve diverse issues, the G7 needs to shift to a cooperative line with the international community including China.
Toru Yoshida (Doshisha University)
Russia Hitoshi Omae (Mainichi Newspapers)
China Seiichiro Takeuchi (Yomiuri Shimbun)
Taiwan Koichiro Ishida (Asahi Shimbun)
Korea Yoshiyuki Aoki (NHK)
India Tomomi Asano (Yomiuri Shimbun)
Indonesia Koya Jibiki (Nikkei)
Brazil Hidetake Miyamoto (Nikkei)

FOCUS ◎How the war in Ukraine has changed neighbouring countries
40‘Downfall’of Europe as a result of the war in Ukraine

44

Poland's growing presence in Europe's eastern shift

50

Finland: The choice to join NATO56

Moldova with unrecognised state ‘Transdniestria’62

From isolation to cooperation - Turkey's Erdoğan diplomacy

Since the end of the Cold War, Europe has led the way in regional peace and stability, but this has collapsed with the war inUkraine. Can Europe find a new role in supporting Ukraine?
Atsuko Higashino (University of Tsukuba)
The author argues for stronger Japan-Poland relations in light of Poland's changing external relations and the shift of Europe's
centre of gravity to the east, where it is at the forefront of support for Ukraine.
Akio Miyajima (Ambassador of Japan to Poland)
Why did Finland change its policy of neutrality and join NATO? The background of the choice was opposition to Russia, which
poses a threat to Finland.
Tapio Juntunen (Tampere University)
Russia is focusing on Transdniestria as a 'corridor' for the invasion of Ukraine. Can the framework of the neighbouring countries'5+2' maintain peace?
Hideya Matsuzaki (Tsuda University)
The author provides an overview of the foreign policy of the Erdoğan Administration, which aims to mediate between Russia
and Ukraine, and analyses the characteristics of its foreign policy since it came to power.
Kohei Imai (Institute of Developing Economies, JETRO)