世界の脱炭素変化とスピード
経済対策としての脱炭素
ブルームバーグNEF
在日代表
黒﨑 美穂

2021年3月31日

排出量削減はこの10年が最大の焦点
中間目標設定が必要不可欠● 世界の排出量予測（経済的分析結果）

GtCO235● パリ協定の2度目標やそれ以下の目標値には程遠い

30● 経済合理的に排出量削減を行うに25は限界がある● 政策介入が必要不可欠

20
152°C

101.75°C

51.5°C

02012

2019
Power

Source: BloombergNEF

12030
Industry

2040
Transport

2050
Buildings● 再生可能エネルギーの導入が最優

先再生可能エネルギー機器コストは世界で急低下
太陽光発電モジュール価格
累積導入量

陸上風力発電タービン価格
累積導入量

リチウムイオン電池価格
累積需要$/W (2019 real)

GW$m/MW (2019 real)

GW$/kWh (2019 real)

GWh2.0800

2.07501,400700

1,2006001.8
1.6
1.4

89% reduction
since 2010600

1.659% reduction
since 2010

600

1,000

1.2

1.2
1.0

450
0.70

0.8

0.6

200

0.4

0.21

0.4

300

150

0.20'12'14

Source: BloombergNEF

2800

400

600

300

400

200

400

0.80.02010

500

89% reduction
since 2010

'16'18'20e

0.0
2010

0'12'14

Source: BloombergNEF'16'18'20e

132

200
0
2010 '12

100
0'14

Source: BloombergNEF'16'18'20e

新設発電所にて再エネが最安の国は世界の3分の2に増加、再エネを経済的に選択する動きが広まる
Germany$52● 日本は2025年以降にU.K.
$33
Japan
$74

U.S.
$36
色分け
Mexico
$45
陸上風力
洋上風力
太陽光
太陽光（トラッキング）
Chile
ガス
$37
石炭対象外

China
$33
India
$26

再エネが新設石炭より安価に• タイは2020年太陽光が最安に、半年前まで石炭最安• その他東南アジア諸国も追随

Brazil$22
South Africa$44

Australia$43

Source: BloombergNEF. Note: The map shows the technology with the lowest LCOE for new-build plants in each country where BNEF has data. The dollar numbers
denote the per MWh benchmark levelized cost of the cheapest technology. All LCOEs are in nominal terms. Calculations exclude subsidies, tax-credit or gridconnection costs. CCGT is combined-cycle gas

3気候変動は経済政策
日本の電力使用からの排出量は各国に比べ多く、日本は企業の立地として選ばれにくくなっている
電力使用当たりの二酸化炭素排出量

再エネは商取引の条件に

g CO2/kWh
日本

434

アメリカ

410

ドイツ

406

欧州

287

スペイン

276

含むサプライヤー企業に対し、電気使用量すべてを再生可能エネルギーで賄うよう要請（再エネ調達）。
商取引の条件となっている● 再エネ調達できなければ取引が失われる● 環境志向の高い会社から日本企業が得ている売上高総額は約7.5兆円（BNEF推計）● 最大約7.5兆円の経済損失を生まないために、再生イギリス

187

フランス

可能エネルギーの普及と企業に対する再エネ調達方法を増やす政策が急務

54
0

Source: BloombergNEF

4● アップルなどの環境意識の高い企業が日本企業を

100

200

300

400500

結論：● 2050年ネットゼロ達成のためには、野心的な中間目標を早期に設定することが重要● 再生可能エネルギーは今取り掛かることのできる脱炭素への最も有効、かつ現実的な策であり、優先されるべき。
● 再生可能エネルギーの調達が商取引の慣行となり、最大約7.5兆円の経済損失の可能性● 再生可能エネルギーによる脱炭素は日本経済の切り札

5参考資料1：排出量削減の有効策の一つが再生可能エネルギーの導入であり、世界では導入量が増加
再生可能エネルギー導入量

化石燃料火力発電導入量

GW

GW

250

238

200

178

250

250

200

200151 158

150
118

128

94

100
7076

74

150
洋上風力

150

140
127 125

太陽光107

100

92

93

100
82

77
6450020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020
Source: BloombergNEF

6ガス

陸上風力5650

12550002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: BloombergNEF

石炭参考資料2：日本の再エネ2025年以降新設石炭火力より安価に既設石炭火力より2040年代後半まで安価にならない
日本の大きな再エネポテンシャルを生かした制度設計が重要
新設再エネ

対

新設火力

新設再エネ

$/MWh (real 2019)

100

140
CCGT
ガス

石炭
Coal

80
60
402002020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: BloombergNEF

7既設火力$/MWh (real 2019)

140

120

対

風力
Onshorewind
Fixed-axis
太陽光
PV

120
100

ガス
CCGT

80

風力
Onshore
wind

60

石炭
Coal

40

2002020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: BloombergNEF

Fixed-axis
太陽光PV参考資料3： 2030年、約40％の再エネ導入は可能（当社推計）
石炭火力削減と、再エネの野心的な目標値の設定が重要
TWh1,200

石油
1,065

1,000

800

5%
9%
7%

1,0285%8%8%13%21%
600400

その他再エネ風力水力● 再エネ34% + 洋上風力2030年

目標値10GW = 約40％

14%
27%

18%

太陽光原子力

200

26%

34%

0
2030年

2030年

政府エネ基BNEF

ガス
石炭Source: BloombergNEF Notes: This analysis was based on BNEF’s New Energy Outlook 2019.

8

このまま対策がなければ、最も安い電源である石炭は増えるリスク

Copyright and disclaimer
Copyright© Bloomberg Finance L.P. 2021. This publication is the copyright of Bloomberg Finance L.P. in connection with BloombergNEF. No portion of this document may be
photocopied, reproduced, scanned into an electronic system or transmitted, forwarded or distributed in any way without prior consent of BloombergNEF.
Disclaimer
The BloombergNEF ("BNEF"), service/information is derived from selected public sources. Bloomberg Finance L.P. and its affiliates, in providing theservice/information, believe that the information it uses comes from reliable sources, but do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information, which issubject to change without notice, and nothing in this document shall be construed as such a guarantee. The statements in this service/document reflect the current
judgment of the authors of the relevant articles or features, and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of theiraffiliates (“Bloomberg”). Bloomberg disclaims any liability arising from use of this document, its contents and/or this service. Nothing herein shall constitute or beconstrued as an offering of financial instruments or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment or other strategy (e.g., whether or not
to “buy”, “sell”, or “hold” an investment). The information available through this service is not based on consideration of a subscriber’s individual circumstances andshould not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base an investment decision. You should determine on your own whether you agree with thecontent. This service should not be construed as tax or accounting advice or as a service designed to facilitate any subscriber’s compliance with its tax, accounting orother legal obligations. Employees involved in this service may hold positions in the companies mentioned in the services/information.
The data included in these materials are for illustrative purposes only. The BLOOMBERG TERMINAL service and Bloomberg data products (the “Services”) areowned and distributed by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (“BFLP”) except (i) in Argentina, Australia and certain jurisdictions in the Pacific islands, Bermuda, China, India,
Japan, Korea and New Zealand, where Bloomberg L.P. and its subsidiaries (“BLP”) distribute these products, and (ii) in Singapore and the jurisdictions serviced byBloomberg’s Singapore office, where a subsidiary of BFLP distributes these products. BLP provides BFLP and its subsidiaries with global marketing and operational
support and service. Certain features, functions, products and services are available only to sophisticated investors and only where permitted. BFLP, BLP and theiraffiliates do not guarantee the accuracy of prices or other information in the Services. Nothing in the Services shall constitute or be construed as an offering offinancial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates, or as investment advice or recommendations by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates of an investment strategy orwhether or not to “buy”, “sell” or “hold” an investment. Information available via the Services should not be considered as information sufficient upon which to base aninvestment decision. The following are trademarks and service marks of BFLP, a Delaware limited partnership, or its subsidiaries: BLOOMBERG, BLOOMBERG
ANYWHERE, BLOOMBERG MARKETS, BLOOMBERG NEWS, BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL, BLOOMBERG TERMINAL and BLOOMBERG.COM. Absence ofany trademark or service mark from this list does not waive Bloomberg’s intellectual property rights in that name, mark or logo. All rights reserved. © 2021 Bloomberg.

9BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a strategicresearch provider covering global commodity
markets and the disruptive technologies
driving the transition to a low-carbon
economy.
Our expert coverage assesses pathways forthe power, transport, industry, buildings andagriculture sectors to adapt to the energy
transition.

We help commodity trading, corporate
strategy, finance and policy professionals
navigate change and generate opportunities.

黒﨑 美穂
mkurosaki3@bloomberg.net
Client enquiries:
Bloomberg Terminal: press <Help> key twice
Email: support.bnef@bloomberg.net
Learn more:

about.bnef.com | @BloombergNEF