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ITF South and Southwest
Asia Transport Outlook
Case-Specific Policy Analysis

ITF South and Southwest
Asia Transport Outlook
Case-Specific Policy Analysis

The International Transport ForumThe International Transport Forum is an intergovernmental organisation with 64 member countries. It acts
as a think tank for transport policy and organises the Annual Summit of transport ministers. ITF is the only
global body that covers all transport modes. The ITF is politically autonomous and administratively
integrated with the OECD.
The ITF works for transport policies that improve people’s lives. Our mission is to foster a deeper
understanding of the role of transport in economic growth, environmental sustainability and social
inclusion and to raise the public profile of transport policy.
The ITF organises global dialogue for better transport. We act as a platform for discussion and prenegotiation of policy issues across all transport modes. We analyse trends, share knowledge and promoteexchange among transport decision-makers and civil society. The ITF’s Annual Summit is the world’s largest
gathering of transport ministers and the leading global platform for dialogue on transport policy.
The Members of the Forum are: Albania, Armenia, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus,
Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Canada, Chile, China (People’s Republic of),
Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece,
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the United Kingdom, the United States and Uzbekistan.
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Case-Specific Policy Analysis Reports
The ITF’s Case-Specific Policy Analysis series presents topical studies on specific issues carried out by the
ITF in agreement with local institutions. Any findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein arethose of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Transport Forum or theOECD. Neither the OECD, ITF nor the authors guarantee the accuracy of any data or other information
contained in this publication and accept no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of their use.
This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the ITF. This document, as wellas any data and map included herein, are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any
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city or area.
Cite this work as: ITF (2022), “ITF South and Southwest Asia Transport Outlook”, International Transport
Forum Policy Papers, No. 104, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Acknowledgements
This report was written by Vatsalya Sohu, with contributions from Luis Martinez, Orla McCarthy and John
Pritchard of the International Transport Forum (ITF) and Azhar Jaimurzina Ducrest, Sandeep Jain and
Kuancheng Huang from the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(ESCAP). Comments from Dr. Rajan Sudesh Ratna and Joseph George from ESCAP South and Southwest
Asia Office are gratefully acknowledged. The project was co-ordinated by Wei-Shiuen Ng (ITF), who, alongwith Mario Barreto (ITF), also contributed to the development and the finalisation of the draft. Jari Kauppila
and Elisabeth Windisch, both of the ITF, reviewed the document.
The report was drafted as a part of the “ITF Transport Outlook – Special Issues for Asia: Policy Analysis and
Implementation” project, which was funded by the United Nations ESCAP as part of the United Nations
Development Account projects on “Transport and trade connectivity in the age of pandemics: Contactless,seamless and collaborative UN solutions” and “Promoting a shift towards sustainable freight transport in
the Asia-Pacific region”. This report is one of three special editions of the ITF Transport Outlook for three
sub-regions in Asia, Southeast Asia, South and Southwest Asia, and North and Central Asia.
Each report draws upon the modelling framework and outputs from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021, desk
research and insights from the ITF-UNESCAP joint capacity building workshop held virtually in October
2021, relevant ESCAP reports and the Special event on “Transport Connectivity and COVID-19 Pandemic:
Pathways for Greater Resilience and Sustainability”, organised during the Fourth Ministerial Conference
on Transport held in Bangkok and via videoconference from 14 to 17 December 2021.

FOREWORD

Foreword
The project ITF Transport Outlook – Special Issues for Asia: Policy Analysis and Implementation wasdeveloped jointly by the International Transport Forum and the United Nations Economic and Social
Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). Both organisations have long collaborated closely and grant
each other reciprocal observer status. Funded by ESCAP and carried out by the ITF, this project marks a
new high point in this productive partnership.
The reports of this joint project will help member countries of both organisations to understand Asia'stransport future better. How will demand for passenger mobility and freight transport evolve in the coming
decades? What does this mean for transport-related emissions? And what impact could potential
disruptions have? The Covid-19 pandemic has underlined the case for much more resilient transportsystems, which require new and different transport policies.
Enhancing governments' capacity to identify critical differences in demand projections for passenger andfreight transport between countries in different sub-regions in Asia and the rest of the world will help
create a sound basis for necessary policy shifts.
The sub-regions covered by the project are experiencing rapid changes in transport demand, the evolutionof mobility services and the provision of transport infrastructure. A primary objective of the work is toprovide policy insights that help address the specific challenges in each sub-region and notably improve
the sustainability of transport systems.
To support the implementation of sustainable transport pathways, the project included capacity-building
and training sessions for each sub-region. The analyses also serve as input to priority actions onconnectivity in the next phase of the ESCAP Asia-Pacific Regional Action Programme on Sustainable
Transport Connectivity.
I look forward to building further on this excellent example of results-oriented collaboration between two
leading intergovernmental organisations in the service of their members.

Young Tae Kim
Secretary-General, International Transport Forum4

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of contents
Executive summary......................................................................................................................... 7
Pathways to decarbonise transport in South and Southwest Asia by 2050 .................................... 9
Reshaping transport in the face of immense population growth and dependence on
fossil fuels ..................................................................................................................................... 11
The human dimension: Catering for massive urbanisation ...................................................11
The economic dimension: Planning for growth .....................................................................14
Selected transport developments in South and Southwest Asia ...........................................15
Strategic policy priorities at the national level ......................................................................18
The trade dimension: Measuring connectivity gaps ..............................................................25
Freight transport: Managing the tripling of demand ..................................................................... 30
Non-urban freight transport: Encouraging the sustainable movement of goods ................ 31
Urban freight transport: Improving efficiencies and fleets .................................................. 34
Passenger transport: Separating transport demand from economic activity................................ 36
Urban passenger transport: Cleaner vehicle fleets crucial for reducing emissions .............. 38
Non-urban passenger transport: Increasing low-emission vehicles and fuels ..................... 43
Conclusions and policy insights..................................................................................................... 47
References.................................................................................................................................... 51
Annex A. ITF Transport Outlook 2021 modelling scenarios: Recover, Reshape, Reshape+ ............. 56
Annex B. Freight transport scenario specifications from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021 ............. 58
Annex C. Urban passenger transport scenario specifications from the
ITF Transport Outlook 2021 .......................................................................................................... 61
Annex D. Non-urban passenger transport scenario specifications from the
ITF Transport Outlook 2021 .......................................................................................................... 64

Figures
1. Summary of transport policy measures for the three ITF Transport Outlook 2021 scenarios .... 10
2. Population projections of South and Southwest Asia countries to 2050 ................................... 12
3. National population by age (%) in South and Southwest Asia countries, 2020 and 2050........... 12
4. Population living in urban areas in South and Southwest Asia countries, 1950-2050 ................ 13
5. World Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for seven
South and Southwest Asia countries ............................................................................................. 15
6. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Liner Shipping Connectivity
Index scores for a selection of countries in South and Southwest Asia, 2011-19 .......................... 17

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

7. Impact of distances on reaching global centres of production and consumption for Southand Southwest Asia countries ....................................................................................................... 26
8. Connectivity gap for South and Southwest Asia countries compared with the Netherlands ..... 28
9. Freight activity for surface, domestic air and sea movements to 2050 ..................................... 30
10. Non-urban freight demand by mode and scenario to 2050 .................................................... 31
11. Non-urban freight tank-to-wheel emissions by scenario to 2050 ............................................ 32
12. Non-urban freight demand and emissions by modal split to 2050 .......................................... 33
13. Total urban freight tonne-kilometres by scenario to 2050 ...................................................... 34
14. Urban freight tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions by scenario to 2050 ............................................ 35
15. Passenger activity in South and Southwest Asia by scenario to 2050 ...................................... 36
16. Passenger transport emissions by scenario to 2050................................................................ 37
17. Total tank-to-wheel emissions for freight and passenger transport by scenario to 2050 ........ 38
18. Urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050 ....... 39
19. Urban passenger emissions by mode and scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050 ..... 41
20. Difference in average travel time across the radius of a city in 2050 under the
Reshape+ scenario compared to the Recover scenario, by car and public transport ..................... 43
21. Non-urban passenger demand by mode and scenario to 2050 ............................................... 44
22. Non-urban passenger emissions by mode and scenario to 2050............................................. 45

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Executive summary
What we did
This report provides recommendations on how to underpin South and Southwest Asia's strategy of
economic growth through better connectivity with sustainable transport solutions. The policy insights are
based on three scenarios for future transport demand and associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions inthe sub-region to 2050. The baseline scenario (Recover) assumes government policies return to businessas-usual after the pandemic. Two other scenarios (Reshape, Reshape+) assume governments adopt more
ambitious policies after the pandemic. Under Reshape+, governments additionally leverage the impacts of
the Covid-19 pandemic for transport decarbonisation. The scenarios in this study are a regional drill-downof the forward-looking policy for global transport activity used in the ITF Transport Outlook project.

What we foundAsia's South and Southwest sub-region is responsible for 10% of the CO2 emissions from the global
transport sector. Expected economic growth in the sub-region will translate into increased demand fortransport and, given transport's dependence on fossil fuels, a rise in emissions associated with transport
activity. Modelling results for all three scenarios show that the freight activity in the sub-region will at least
triple between 2015 and 2050. However, ambitious policies that focus on decarbonising transport can leadto a 23% decrease in the demand for freight transport by 2050, compared to the current trajectory.
Demand for passenger transport will increase even more significantly. Under the Recover scenario, where
today's policies remain unchanged, it will quadruple between 2015 and 2050. By contrast, it would be 17%
lower in 2050 under the policies assumed in the Reshape+ scenario than under Recover assumptions.
South and Southwest Asia remains one of the world's least-connected regions economically despite efforts
to enhance the connectivity in the sub-region. In terms of access to global GDP, countries in South andSouthwest Asia have connectivity levels of the half, or less than half, than that of most developed
economies. Improving road and rail links and overcoming barriers to intra-regional trade will be critical toenhancing connectivity in the region. Increased trade regionalisation, when combined with the measures
under Reshape+, can lead to slower growth in freight activity in the region. A combination of policies
ranging from vehicle weight reduction, increased engine efficiency and hybridisation and fuel economy
and CO2 emission standards for road freight to battery electric and hybrid hydrogen and fuel cell traction
systems for the rail sector can help substantially reduce the carbon dependency of freight transport.
Under all scenarios, the demand for non-urban passenger transport in 2050 will remain considerably
greater than for urban passenger transport. Non-urban passenger transport is more challenging todecarbonise than urban mobility. Making passenger transport between and outside cities moresustainable requires a paradigm shift in transport policy. To take transport decarbonisation to a new level,
governments could specifically aim to lock in the unforeseen emissions reductions caused by the Covid-19
pandemic. The sub-region’s growth in rail transport reflects the prioritisation of planned investment in thedevelopment of rail infrastructure, to move towards cleaner transport. The increased use of private
vehicles and rising activity in urban freight in cities will lead to congested urban areas. It is essential forpolicy makers to anticipate such adverse effects and design policies that are more resilient to unforeseen
events in the future.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

What we recommend
Target road freight to achieve significant reductions in transport CO2 emissions
The emissions from road freight transport are projected to almost double in 2050, under the current policy
ambitions. Enacting ambitious policies, such as those under the Reshape+ scenario, can bring down theemissions from the road freight sector by 62% in 2050, as compared to what could be the resultant
emissions under Recover. Some of these include an ambitious energy transition for long-haul heavy-dutyroad freight vehicles, strict fuel economy and CO2 emissions standards, aerodynamic retrofits, reducedrolling resistance of tyres, vehicle weight reduction, increased engine efficiency, and hybridisation. In
urban areas, freight emissions more than double under the Recover scenario. Targeted policies that tackle
freight emissions in the cities will be crucial to avoid this from happening.
Accelerate aviation's technology and fuel transition to reduce emissions
While significant reductions are achievable in road, bus and rail transport under the non-urban passenger
sector, it is the aviation sector that is hard-to-abate. Under the two Reshape scenarios, hybrid and allelectric aircraft become commercially viable in the coming decades. These technological developments
can push down the cost of synthetic fuels, making them more commercially viable in the future. Pushingfor the adoption of alternative fuels in aviation would decrease emissions in the short term and boost
innovation in the longer term.
Reduce urban transport's carbon footprint by leveraging public transport and active modes post the
pandemicWith the changes seen in the travel patterns after the Covid-19 crisis, proactive measures are necessary
to reverse the impact of negative externalities, especially in the cities of the sub-region. Ensuring thesafety, reliability and availability of public transport will be essential to minimise the negativeenvironmental impacts. Investing in public transport and active modes will have to be prioritised overdeveloping new infrastructure for private vehicles.
Link decarbonisation and regional connectivity to develop resilient transport sectors
The recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic can be leveraged as an opportunity to implement targeted
policies to improve connectivity in the region and enhance transport sustainability. Building resilience inthe sub-region's transport sector to deal with dynamic and unpredictable situations would be critical. Thiscan be done through a mix of policy options, including increasing capacity for planning and crisis response
through enhanced co-operation among stakeholders, harmonising border procedures among countries,
advancing towards digitalisation of processes and climate-proofing transport infrastructure.
Establish coherent freight reforms for sustainable outcomesTo mainstream sustainability considerations in freight transport planning, gathering, storing and analysing
transport statistics would be crucial, an element that is lacking in the sub-region currently. Transporttechnologies can contribute immensely to the enhancement of freight sustainability in multifarious ways,
including the improved capacity of the network, traffic management, reliability, energy efficiency andlower operating costs. Governments need to create a coherent framework of economic and regulatory
incentives and penalties to align economic objectives with sustainability goals. Including freight transport
emissions in carbon-pricing schemes is a critical instrument that policy makers have at their disposal tofoster a green transition.

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PATHWAYS TO DECARBONISE TRANSPORT IN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA BY 2050

Pathways to decarbonise transport inSouth and Southwest Asia by 2050
The South and Southwest Asia sub region accounted for a quarter of the total world population in 2020.
This proportion is only expected to increase in the coming decades to 2050. Population growth, along withaugmenting consumption, also leads to increased emissions. A priority for the sub-region is addressing thisrise in emissions and ensuring that socio-economic improvements are achieved. Transport is an importantsector for the countries in the sub-region, not only because of the role it plays in physically connecting
people and markets and as a facilitator of economic growth and social development but also for its
relevance for oil demand and contribution to emissions.
Countries in South and Southwest Asia had been scaling up their ambitions and actions to combat climatechange in the last few years, yet the Covid-19 pandemic has strongly affected the transport sector and theconnectivity landscape in the sub-region. It has also highlighted areas that can be “built back better”,
especially, for example, advancing national and regional initiatives that support the environmental
sustainability of freight transport operations.
South and Southwest Asia is defined according to the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for
Asia and the Pacific’s (ESCAP) categorisation of the South and Southwest Asia sub-region in this report.
This includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, the Maldives, Nepal,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Turkey. Nine out of the ten countries in the sub-region have submitted Nationally
Determined Contributions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
under the Paris Agreement.
This report presents future demand scenarios of passenger mobility, freight volumes and the associatedtransport emissions to 2050 for this sub-region. These scenarios assess potential impacts of futuretransport activity on climate change through detailed carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions projections under
different conditions. The ITF models used for the Transport Outlook are demand-based models that showwhat could be possible under certain policy scenarios, using policies that are already committed as thebaseline. These ITF models are global, and as such, there are limitations to how granular the resultspresented can be. Model outputs are therefore reported at the sub-regional level, except for analysis
conducted for specific projects, such as those shown in the connectivity section. For the most recent ITF
Transport Outlook (ITF, 2021), three scenarios were considered, Recover, Reshape and Reshape+. These
are described in detail in Annex A, with the specific policies for each of the transport models in Annexes B,
C and D – all of which are extracted from the original Outlook 2021. Figure 1. gives a high-level summaryof the three.

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PATHWAYS TO DECARBONISE TRANSPORT IN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA BY 2050

Figure 1. Summary of transport policy measures for the three ITF Transport Outlook 2021 scenarios

The Recover scenario is the baseline in terms of policy measures. Under Recover, it is assumed thattransport trends return to levels seen prior to the pandemic by 2025. It also assumes that only pre-existingplanned or committed policies are implemented, so there are no additional policies that build on the
pandemic experience. From a policy perspective, this could be considered the business-as-usual scenario.
Under Reshape, transport trends are again assumed to have returned to their pre-pandemic levels by2025, and it is assumed that significantly more ambitious policies to decarbonise transport will be
implemented. This scenario is considered “transformational”. It assumes policy measures that “encouragechanges in the behaviour of transport users, uptake of cleaner energy and vehicle technologies,
digitalisation to improve transport efficiency, and infrastructure investment to help meet environmental
and social development goals.” (ITF, 2021b). Measures such as carbon pricing or port fees would beassumed to be more stringent, while the attractiveness of more sustainable modes would be increased.
The improved attractiveness would be due to assumed lower penalties for multimodal interchanges,
greater investment in infrastructure and services, more efficient operations (through asset sharing in
freight, for example) and broader uptake of innovative transport solutions and alternative fuels or power.
Reshape+ is the most ambitious of the three scenarios. It assumes that “governments seize
decarbonisation opportunities created by the pandemic, which reinforce the policy efforts in Reshape.”(ITF, 2021). Under Reshape+, any reductions in transport demand observed during the pandemic broadly
continue, with a more ambitious policy package also being implemented.
This report can support countries in the sub-region in developing their policy pathways to achieve
decarbonisation objectives and to improve future strategies for the transport sector. It also highlights the
major transport sector trends and the strategic and policy priorities that the countries in the sub-region
are currently focusing on, especially decarbonisation objectives.

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RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS

Reshaping transport in the face of immense
population growth and dependence on fossil fuelsWith two billion people, South and Southwest Asia’s population accounted for 25% of the world populationin 2020 (UNDESA, 2019). The sub-region is also responsible for 10% of the CO2 emissions from thetransport sector globally. The expectation of rapid growth in population and gross domestic product,
combined with growing energy needs, implies that the South and Southwest Asian region will play asignificant role in the global efforts to mitigate climate change. The share of fossil fuels in total energy
consumption has been rising sharply in the sub-region over the last three decades, while it has been
comparatively stable globally and among developing country groups. This threatens to drive up the subregion’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission rates. Though all sub-regional countries have set ambitious
targets for renewable energy generation, a reversal in the growth of non-renewable energy consumption
is unlikely in the short term because of the sub-region’s huge energy supply deficits. With its traditional
dependency on fossil fuels and low penetration of electrified vehicles, the transport sector may remain amajor source of emissions, even against a potential rise in the share of renewable energy in the subregional countries (UNESCAP, 2021a).

The human dimension: Catering for massive urbanisation
The population for South and Southwest Asia is expected to grow by 23% between 2020 and 2050
(UNDESA, 2019), reaching an estimated 2.5 billion people (Figure 2). The highest absolute increase during
the period is expected to come from the population growth in India, while the highest growth rate isexperienced by Afghanistan at 66%. This is followed by Pakistan, which is expected to have a population
growth rate of 53% between 2020 and 2050. The Islamic Republic of Iran expects a growth rate of 23%
and Nepal 21%. India, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Turkey (in that order) are expected to have a growth rateestimated between 15-19% over the same period. The countries with the lowest expected population
growth in the sub-region are the Maldives (at 8%) and Sri Lanka (at 2%). This population growth in the
sub-region is expected to have implications for transport policies in the coming decades. More people
requiring mobility will place greater pressure on public transport infrastructures, for example.
The age distribution of the population is also important to consider when developing transport policies. As
the population ages, there is a decline in the labour force. This, in turn, influences the transport demanditself and the composition of the types of trips taken (Murdock et al., 2015). Importantly, while an older
population travels less than a younger population, other needs should be met while undertaking transport
planning for an ageing population; road safety and accessibility are some of the major ones (Böcker, vanAmen and Helbich, 2017; Shrestha et al., 2017).
The share of people aged over 64 years is estimated to more than double from 6% to 14% between 2020
and 2050 in South and Southwest Asia (Figure 3). In 2050, the regions projected to have the highest
populations aged over 64 years are the Maldives (at 25%) and Bhutan (23%). However, the entire
sub-region has the advantage of starting with a relatively large proportion (36%) of the population aged
under 19 years in 2020. For example, 40-54% of people in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Nepal were aged
under 19 years in 2020.

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RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS

Figure 2. Population projections of South and Southwest Asia countries to 2050

Note: Data are according to the medium-variant projections.
Source: Adapted from UNDESA (2019), Population Division World Population Prospects 2019 (database),https://population.un.org/wpp/.

Figure 3. National population by age (%) in South and Southwest Asia countries, 2020 and 2050

Note: Data are according to the medium-variant projections.
Source: Adapted from UNDESA (2019), Population Division World Population Prospects 2019 (database),https://population.un.org/wpp/.

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RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELSOf the estimated growth to 2.5 billion people by 2050, almost 1.3 billion are expected to be urban based,accounting for 55% of the total population of the sub-region (UNDESA, 2018). All ten countries in the subregion are expected to experience a rise in their urban population, as shown in Figure 4. India’s urban
population, alone, will account for 13% of the total world population. Despite this, India will not have thelargest relative population growth from its current numbers. Between 2020-50, the countries in the subregion that will have the largest growth in their respective urban populations are Afghanistan (157%),
Nepal (117%), and Pakistan (107%). Bangladesh follows at 82% and India at 81%. The countries with thelowest urban population growth in the sub-region will be Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bhutan, Turkey and Iran,following that order, which expect growth rates between 27-67%, over the same period.
Figure 4. Population living in urban areas in South and Southwest Asia countries, 1950-2050

Source: Adapted from UNDESA (2018), World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision (database),https://population.un.org/wup/.

The tremendous rise in population and urbanisation in the coming decades will inevitably raise the demand
for transport within the countries and across the sub-region. Already, the transport sector is the highest
GHG emitting sector after electricity generation in the sub-region (ADB, 2013). Therefore, the transport
sector will have to create policies that mitigate this further expected rise in CO2 emissions. In the aftermathof the Covid-19 pandemic, policy makers are presented with an opportunity to rethink mobility, especiallyin cities, build back better and establish a new paradigm that would enable the transport sector to begreener, more inclusive and more resilient.

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RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELSThe economic dimension: Planning for growthSouth and Southwest Asia’s economy was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, it recovers as theglobal demand continues to rebound. Focused containment measures in the sub-region help to minimise
the economic impact of the subsequent variants and waves of the pandemic (World Bank, 2021c).
Economic growth in the sub-region before Covid-19 was largely driven by Bangladesh and India. They
averaged a 7% growth between 2014-19 (ADB, 2019). Countries such as Nepal and Bhutan also had highgrowth rates of above 6% on average. Growth rates in Sri Lanka and Pakistan were also above developing
countries’ average. Economic reforms and other measures to facilitate ease of doing business across mostof the countries in the sub-region have helped induce foreign investment. For most of 2020, the Covid-19
pandemic disrupted life across the globe. The combination of health and economic shocks harmed thelivelihoods of millions of households, disrupted business activities and highlighted existing fault lines in the
sub-region. However, several countries have started to bounce back by increased trade demand fromoutside the region, speed-up of vaccination drives and focused safety measures.
The UNESCAP’s forecasts 0.6% to 9.9% growth in real GDP for sub-region economies for the fiscal year
2021-22 (UNESCAP, 2021b). India, the largest economy in the sub-region, expects public investment toboost domestic demand and incentive schemes to strengthen manufacturing which will generate real GDP
growth of 7% in the year 2021-22. Bangladesh expects even higher growth of 7.2% real GDP, as exports
and private consumption continue to recoup. With a strong bounce back in the tourism sector, the real
GDP in the Maldives is projected to grow by 9.9% in 2021, making it the highest expected growth in the
sub-region. Sri Lanka’s real GDP is projected to grow by 4.3% in 2021, with import restrictions, elevatedfood prices and shortages dampening the economic outlook. Growing at a lower rate is Pakistan’s realGDP, at 1.5%. The return of migrant labour and investment in infrastructure projects in Bhutan projects anincrease in the real GDP to 3.5%. In Nepal, the real GDP is expected to grow by 0.6%, with a slight pushfrom the domestic vaccination drive as well as restoration of tourism and migrant worker flow.
Iran’s economy bounced back moderately in 2020-21, compared to two previous years of recession. A
steady recovery in global demand and Covid-19 measures contributed to stronger growth in the oil andmanufacturing sectors. The UNESCAP projects real GDP growth for Iran to be 4.6% for 2021 (UNESCAP,
2021b). Turkey’s economy is expected to rebound in 2021 with an estimated real GDP growth of 3.8%. The
recent political situation in Afghanistan has exacerbated the existing economic challenges in the country.
In the aftermath of the political crisis, the country has seen a further acceleration in inflation, which points
to the depreciation of the currency and hoarding and disruptions to international trade (World Bank,
2021e). The United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP) projections for the impact on real GDP in
Afghanistan, under different scenarios (varying by the intensity of the crisis), range from a 3.6% decrease
to a 13.2% decrease for the year 2021 (UNDP, 2021).
Different countries in the sub-region are expected to recover from the pandemic at different paces. The
pandemic impacted people around the world, but the lower-income groups tend to be the hardest hit.
Based on Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, in 2020, eight out of the ten countries in the South andSouthwest Asia region were classified as lower middle-income groups in the World Bank Atlas Method(World Bank, 2020). The impact of the Covid-19 crisis in these countries would be more acute than others,
especially for sectors with big informal economies, such as transport. In the aftermath of the pandemic, it
is essential for countries in the sub-region to implement inclusive recovery policies in these sectors that
protect workers and businesses and boost the provision of public services while ensuring that these plans
are resilient to future uncertainties.

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Selected transport developments in South and Southwest Asia
Before the Covid-19 pandemic, South and Southwest Asia had been one of the fastest-growing sub-regionsin the world, pushing the world’s economic centre of gravity to the East. Despite this growth, the transport
connectivity gaps have always been and remain a serious challenge for the sub-region to achieve more
profound development. When compared with Southeast Asia, this sub-region lacks sound businessenvironments and supply chains for high value-added products. The situation is particularly serious for thethree landlocked countries in the sub-region, Afghanistan, Bhutan, and Nepal. According to UNESCAP’s
estimations, if trade costs in South Asia can be brought down to the levels enjoyed by the Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries, intra-regional trade could increase by nearly 11%, more than
three times what would accrue from the elimination of tariffs (UNESCAP, 2017). Better connectivity acrossthe sub-region and beyond can certainly harness the sub-region’s strategic location to re-emerge as the
hub of Europe and Central Asia’s trade with East Asia (UNESCAP, 2012).
Insufficient transport infrastructure is one of the major causes of low connectivity within the sub-region.
No South and Southwest Asia country is within the top 50 among 141 countries in terms of transport
infrastructure according to the World Economic Forum (WEF) global competitiveness report (WEF, 2019).
Turkey (ranked 61st) and India (ranked 68th) are the two with a relatively better overall score. Three
countries have a ranking beyond one hundred, Bangladesh ranks 105th, Nepal 108th, and Pakistan 110th.
Meanwhile, the three countries (Afghanistan, Bhutan, and the Maldives) not included in the evaluation are
also believed to have significant room for improvement. The WEF transport infrastructure score includes
eight sub-indicators on road, rail, sea, and air transport infrastructure. These are road connectivity, qualityof road infrastructure, railroad density, the efficiency of train services, airport connectivity, the efficiencyof air transport services, liner shipping connectivity and efficiency of seaport services, for which the scoresof the South and Southwest Asia countries are illustrated in Figure 5. The data for Afghanistan, Bangladesh
and Bhutan are unavailable for these indicators.
Figure 5. World Economic Forum transport infrastructure scores for seven
South and Southwest Asia countries

Source: Adapted from World Economic Forum (2019) The Global Competitiveness Report 2019.

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RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELSSouth and Southwest Asia’s major air and maritime routes are generally connected to global transport
networks, prioritising the European market. In contrast, the road and railway routes between neighbouring
countries are relatively underdeveloped. This absence of connectivity creates high intra-regional trade
costs, undermines the benefits of geographical proximity, and poses crucial barriers for landlocked
countries to participate in global supply chains. Private sectors have been active in developing andmanaging infrastructures for maritime shipping and aviation. However, the land-based transport
infrastructures still require substantial involvement from governments and international organisations.
The networks of Asian Highways and Trans-Asian Railways are an advantage to road and rail connectivity
in South and Southwest Asia. Network improvement measures have been included in the nationaltransport plans of many countries in the sub-region as soon as they were announced. Among the initiatives
related to the Asian Highways, the Turkey – Iran – Pakistan – India – Bangladesh – Myanmar (TIPI-BM)
Road Corridor is particularly relevant to this sub-region. Given its critical coverage, it would become Asia’sSouthern silk highway (UNESCAP, 2018). As for the Trans-Asian Railways, theIstanbul – Tehran – Islamabad – Delhi – Kolkata – Dhaka-Yangon (ITI-DKD-Y) Container Rail Corridor opens
the possibility of new cost-effective transport options. Compared with existing rail alternatives, the ITIDKD-Y Corridor can lead to an estimated USD 1 122 cost reduction per container (twenty-foot equivalentunit), potentially halving the current costs under modest assumptions (UNESCAP, 2019c). These corridors
can also vertically connect the landlocked developing countries of this sub-region as well as those inCentral and North Asia. The improved connectivity will stimulate the economic activities of the lagging
areas and help to re-emerge the sub-region’s strategic hub role.
All coastal countries in South and Southwest Asia are now linked by direct shipping services or bytransshipment through hub ports. Shipping connectivity has increased significantly in a couple of Southand Southwest Asian countries. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
Liner Shipping Connectivity Index for 2011-19 measures increases for counties such as Sri Lanka (from 40.1
to 62.1) and Turkey (from 41.6 to 51.5) (World Bank, no date). These countries act as regional hubs basedon their larger shipping capacity and wider service coverage. On the other hand, the increases for othercountries tend to be mild, for example, India (from 48.9 to 55.5) and Pakistan (from 31.2 to 34.1), as seenin Figure 6. Access to seaports for the landlocked countries remains challenging, given that the transit
operations in the sub-region are far from seamless.
Several countries in South and Southwest Asia expanded their air transport services impressively between
2011-19. The following countries doubled their air passengers: India (from 74.0 to 167.5 million), Turkey(from 53.5 to 111.1 million), and Bangladesh (from 2.02 to 6.26 million) (World Bank, no date). These
increases are mainly from investments made into new and existing airports and increased flightfrequencies significantly attributed to the entry of low-cost carriers. In contrast, the number of air
passengers only increased at a mild rate in other countries in the sub-region.
Air cargo operations were stable in most countries of the sub-region during 2011-19, without any
substantial growth. Nonetheless, Turkey has made remarkable progress, with its air cargo volume
increasing from 1 544 million tonne-kilometre to 6 815 million tonne-kilometre (World Bank, no date). This
achievement was mainly due to the long-term effort of building infrastructure in Istanbul to make it a hub
between Asia and Europe. Air links are particularly important for landlocked and island countries. To
further develop the aviation sector in this sub-region, particularly in remote areas, the liberalisation of airservices should be considered. The liberalisation of air travel as well as air freight services through theASEAN Single Aviation Market has demonstrated the effect of open-sky policies on facilitating the flow of
tourism and business.

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Figure 6. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Liner Shipping Connectivity Indexscores for a selection of countries in South and Southwest Asia, 2011-19

Source: Adapted from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (2021) UNCTAD STAT, available
at: https://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=92

In addition to the above individual transport modes, multimodal connectivity is crucial for both operational
efficiency and emission reductions in the sub-region. The network of dry ports already in existence canincrease the operational efficiency of the highway and railway networks, extending their reach to wider
areas and facilitating their integration with the sub-region’s sea ports and other transport modes(UNESCAP, 2019b). South and Southwest Asia has the greatest number of dry ports in the sub-regions ofAsia. It has 73 existing dry ports and 39 listed as potential opportunities. Countries such as Afghanistan,
Bhutan, Nepal, and Pakistan, as well as the inland parts of India, can greatly benefit from the enhanced
connectivity through dry ports (UNESCAP, 2019b). These countries can draw on ESCAP’s
Intergovernmental Agreement on Dry Ports which provides a uniform definition of a dry port ofinternational importance, identifies the network of existing and potential dry ports, and proposes guiding
principles for their development and operation. As of 2019, the Agreement has 14 Parties and covers 226
dry ports.
The growing population and fast urbanisation in this sub-region have necessitated a substantial rise inmobility. For example, India’s passenger transport activity grew by 122% between 2010 and 2019
(UNESCAP, 2021c). To accommodate the growing mobility needs, private vehicle ownership has continued
to grow, but many countries have also launched various public transport projects, including mass transit
systems in urban areas. Designing urban transport systems that are inclusive, accessible, safe, andenvironmentally sustainable remains a great challenge for many countries in the sub-region. Some of thefactors that have contributed to this outcome include a lack of land use and transport integration,
institutional fragmentation, budgetary constraints due to other urgent needs for public funds, and theexistence of faster and more affordable informal paratransit operators.

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RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELSGlobally, the transport sector was one of the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Despite reduced
transport demand, many transport systems, such as ports and inland transshipment hubs, are facing
severe traffic congestion. Lockdowns, shortage of labour, and quarantine measures have led to operational
delays and a decrease in capacity and service frequency. Unfortunately, such disruptions are more severein countries and sub-regions with weak logistic performance, such as South and Southwest Asia.
Additionally, a heavy reliance on road transport for inland cross-border traffic denies the advantages ofinter-modal shifts to rail systems (UNESCAP, 2021c). Creating policy priorities for resilient cargo transport
is a critical issue of the post-Covid-19 new normal.

Strategic policy priorities at the national level
The priorities, opportunities and challenges of South and Southwest Asian transport sectors differ greatly
between countries. Many countries are landlocked, especially the least-developed countries (Afghanistan,
Bhutan and Nepal). Their major trade is largely with the neighbouring country India and making transport
connectivity, especially road, is one of their highest transport policy priorities.
While some countries have been focusing on enhancing the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs) andsustainability of transport infrastructure, others still have a focus on improving road connectivity in ruraland remote areas. This section outlines some of the strategic policy priorities for the countries in the
sub-region.
The sub-region’s transport sector has continued to receive development aid from institutions such as theInternational Development Agency (IDA), the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development(IBRD) and the International Finance Corporation for a multitude of projects (World Bank, 2021b). The subregion here refers to the World Bank’s definition for this particular publication and includes Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The focus of these projects has
been wide-ranging and reflects the transport priorities that countries are focusing on. Aid to Afghanistan’stransport sector has focused on improving road conditions and traffic flow. Bhutan and the Maldives haveboth received some IDA financing which targets green development. Bangladesh and Nepal have received
IDA and IBRD aid for the expansion and improvement of road networks to enhance transport connectivity.
For Pakistan, the aid received focuses on improvements in port operations, and for Sri Lanka, a significant
portion has been targeted at sustainable transport infrastructure. India has become increasingly
prominent in the International Finance Corporation’s (IFCs) investment portfolio, with projects supporting
integrated transport systems. These aid projects indicate the main priorities of the countries in the subregion, where enhanced transport connectivity, improved road networks, sustainable transport
infrastructure are some of the common goals.
Moving towards sustainable transport systems

Countries in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region have been scaling-up their ambitions and actions tocombat climate change in the last few years. Globally, reducing the CO2 emissions from the transport
sector has been one of the focus areas of these ambitions. A push to electrify transport, which is one of
the main end-use sectors of energy, is a common goal across some of the countries. The following section
enumerates some of these plans in detail.
Bangladesh’s national development plans have a specialised focus on the transport sector. Its Seventh
Five-Year Plan from 2016-20 targeted the continued development of the transport sector, recognising thatit has an important role in connecting people and firms to markets and to social opportunities (ADB,18

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2020b). In its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Bangladesh pledged to reduce GHG
emissions from the power, transport and industry sectors by 5% by 2030 in comparison to a national
business as usual scenario (Climate Analytics, 2019a). In 2021, Bangladesh updated the NDCs, separating
the three sectors and proposing a 12% GHG emission reduction by 2030 as the unconditional contribution
from the transport sector. Furthermore, transport sector priorities in the National Sustainable
Development Strategy 2010-21 include expansion and renewal of the railway network, maintenance ofthe existing road infrastructure, and the development of rural transport infrastructure by integrating roadand inland water transport and improving channel and waterway conditions (Dietrich, 2020). The Strategic
Transport Plan (STP) for Dhaka focusing on developing mass transportation will provide affordable,
inclusive, safe transport modes for mobility. The construction of five Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) lines andone Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) line is in progress.
Bhutan is prioritising the development of a safe, affordable, efficient, sustainable, and inclusive transportsystem in its 12th Five Year Plan and beyond. The government pledged to remain carbon neutral at the
15th Conference of Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC, which was reiterated through its Intended NDC
submitted in September 2015. Bhutan also adopted the Bali Declaration on Vision Three Zeros — Zero
Congestion, Zero Pollution, and Zero Accidents towards Next Generation Transport Systems in Asia in April
2013 during the Seventh Regional Environmentally Sustainable Transport Forum in Asia. The government
aims for approximately 300 internal combustion engine taxis to be replaced by electric taxis and a networkof charging stations to be established in all 20 districts of the country by the end of 2022. The government
has continued investment in urban transport systems and introduced a BRT system in Thimphu and othermajor urban centres. The government is working on a comprehensive National Surface Transport Policy toflag the emerging priorities for the transport sector while addressing climate change.
India announced at the UNFCCC COP26 that it will achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070 and will
reduce the total projected carbon emissions by one billion tonnes between 2021 and 2030. Additionally,
the carbon intensity of the economy would be reduced to less than 45% by 2030. India’s policies that aim
to decarbonise the transport sector can be broadly categorised into three groups: travel demand andmodal choice management, energy efficiency, and diversification towards low-carbon energy vectors.
India’s NDC includes measures that are directly related to travel demand and modal choice management,
aiming to foster economic competitiveness and the relevance of energy-efficient modes, such as public
transport, rail and waterborne transport (MOEFCC, 2016). Indian Railways aims to become the largest
green railway in the world and is moving towards becoming a net-zero carbon emitter by 2030. IndianRailways’ Dedicated Freight Corridors are being developed as a low-carbon green transportation network
under a long-term low carbon roadmap.
Several policies and programmes in the country focus on enhancing the energy efficiency of transportsystems, including pushing for EV uptake and transitioning to low-carbon electricity (especially for lightvehicles and passenger cars), and more recently, other low carbon transport fuels (ITF, 2021a). Notably,
the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways of India has formulated the Vehicle Scrappage Policy toenable the phasing out of old polluting vehicles and their replacement with fuel efficient, environmentfriendly, new generation vehicles. The government has formulated standards that match global standards,
to better enable manufacturing and adoption of EVs. Furthermore, the National Policy on Biofuels (2018)
aims to increase the usage of biofuels in the transportation sectors in the country.
The Maldives has a net-zero emissions target by 2030, one of the most ambitious targets for an island
nation. For the transport sector, it has planned to implement a zero-emission inter-city public transportsystem comprised of EVs. The government will also strengthen the legal framework governing the

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maritime sector to ensure international standards on quality, safety, compliance and protection of thenatural environment.
Nepal, smaller than most countries in the sub-region, and landlocked, is considering import substitution,energy security and reliability of energy supply (UKAid, 2020). This provides an opportunity for promoting
low-carbon solutions in the transport sector. Nepal is committed to the United Nation’s 2030 Agenda for
Sustainable Development and has mainstreamed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in national
policies and plans. It aims to reduce GHG emissions from the transport sector by 28% by 2030, as reflectedin the updated NDCs to the Paris Agreement.
Nepal’s National Sustainable Transport Strategy runs to 2040and aims to develop a transport system thatis efficient, accessible, affordable, reliable, safe, inclusive, environmentally friendly, and climate anddisaster-resilient (UNCRD, 2015). The strategy promotes a shift to the “avoid, shift and improve approach”,
which discourages unnecessary travel and supports reduced trip distances. Broadly, it encourages a shift
towards more sustainable transport modes, especially within the public transport system, and encourages
the adoption of cleaner technologies to support the goal.

Box 1. Decarbonising Transport in Emerging Economies and the Nationally Determined Contribution
Transport Initiative for Asia
The ITF’s Decarbonising Transport in India stream of work includes two projects, namely, DecarbonisingTransport in Emerging Economies (DTEE) project and the Nationally Determined Contribution Transport
Initiative for Asia (NDC-TIA) project.
The DTEE project helps the government of India to identify ways to reduce their transport CO2 emissions
and meet their climate goals, https://www.itf-oecd.org/dtee-india. The project supports transport
decarbonisation in Argentina, Azerbaijan, India, and Morocco through the development and the provisionof a framework allowing the quantitative assessment of transport mitigation actions while also facilitating
policy dialogue across all relevant stakeholders. The ITF is developing a life cycle assessment (LCA) toolthat will help India to implement ambitious CO2 reduction initiatives for its transport sector. The project
also includes capacity building activities such as training and stakeholder workshops, ensuring that partner
institutions can work increasingly independently when revising nationally determined contribution (NDC)
commitments in the five-year review cycle.
The NDC Transport Initiative for Asia (NDC-TIA) supports the People’s Republic of China, India and Viet
Nam to define policies that may enable them to meet the objectives of their NDCs, https://www.itfoecd.org/ndc-transport-initiative-asia. The focus is to increase capacity to take mitigative action against
GHG emissions in the transport sector. In particular, the ITF involvement in the NDC-TIA India project willleverage the LCA developed in the DTEE India project to help local research and academic institutions
support the government in the definition of GHG emission mitigation policies in transport.
The DTEE and the NDC-TIA projects are funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the German
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU). As such, theauthors would like to thank BMU for supporting this project.

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RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELSThe Nepalese government has reduced import taxes for EVs and plans to have up to 90% of all private
passenger vehicles electric by 2030. The government is also procuring 200 electric buses to operate in
Kathmandu and the Nepal Electric Authority is developing 500 charging stations in Kathmandu and alreadyplanning to install some beyond the capital. The private sector is already operating a fleet of electric buses
and minibuses in Kathmandu and has installed 80 fast and slow charging stations and plans to expand
service to other cities.
Pakistan, in recent years, has focused on air pollutant emission reduction and improved air quality as well
as developing climate resilient infrastructure. The National Climate Change Policy (2012) addresses theimpact of climate change by promoting the development and adoption of environmentally friendly
transport technologies and fuels, as well as other carbon reduction strategies (Government of Pakistan,2012). The National Transport Policy of Pakistan (2018) guides the overall development of the transport
sector with the vision to provide safe, affordable, efficient, durable and environmentally friendly means oftransport (Government of Pakistan, 2018). Several other plans and programmes have been put in place toachieve the sustainable mobility targets of the country. The Green Line bus service programme, comprisedof 80 hybrid buses, started in Karachi in January 2022 and there are plans to revive the Karachi circularrailway as well. The government has developed the National Electric Vehicle Policy with targets andincentives aimed at seeing EVs capture 30% of all the passenger vehicle and heavy-duty truck sales by 2030
and 90% by 2040. It sets even more ambitious goals for two- and three-wheelers and buses; 50% of newsales by 2030 and 90% by 2040 (Uddin, 2020).
In Sri Lanka, much like the other countries in the sub-region, roads act as the backbone of the country’s
passenger transport sector. The transport Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA) programme
for Sri Lanka focuses on the introduction and adoption of electric buses instead of conventionally fuelledbuses in the planned BRT system in the Colombo Metropolitan Area (UNDP, 2016). This would help thecountry address the objectives of reducing GHG emissions and achieving its SDGs, such as increased energy
security, improved access to transport, improved air quality and local job creation.
The NAMA is also aligned with the country’s national and regional objectives of promotion and adoptionof EVs. This commitment is mentioned in numerous policy documents, including the country’s Intended
NDC to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat, as well as its
National Transport Policy and Urban Transport Master Plan. Initial steps have been taken towards emobility through a feasibility study on Developing Green and Smart Urban Transport System in Colombo
city. In 2021, Sri Lanka’s State Minister for Renewable Energy also announced plans to produce 70% of theelectricity from renewable energy by 2030.
Like several other countries in the sub-region, Turkey is highly dependent on fossil imports and its energy
demand is set to increase in the future. Turkey has taken steps towards decarbonising both the road andrail passenger transport sector. For example, Turkish climate policy includes the objective of developing
and promoting alternative fuels and clean vehicle technologies and also aims at manufacturing its own EVs
by 2022 (Climate Analytics, 2019b). In accordance with the UN SDGs, Turkey is developing policies andstrategies for providing innovative, sustainable, smart, and integrated mobility that focuses on accessibility
and is inclusive for all segments of society. Turkey has instituted plans focused on emissions standards,
biofuel targets, encouraging modal share shift, e-mobility and taxation on fuels to advance towards its
sustainability targets for the transport sector.
Air pollution, particularly in cities, is becoming an increasingly alarming issue in the sub-region, with 46
Indian cities, 6 Pakistani cities and 4 Bangladeshi cities appearing in the 100 most polluted cities in theworld in 2020, according to the concentration of PM2.5 (IQAir, 2020). In India, 1.67 million deaths were

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attributable to air pollution in 2019, accounting for 17.8% of the total deaths in the country (Pandey et al.,2021). The sub-region must co-operate and co-ordinate regionally to manage this crisis.

Enhancing sustainable transport connectivity

The South and Southwest Asia sub-region has increasingly recognised the relationship between goodregional transport connectivity and market competitiveness. Enhancing regional transport connectivity not
only helps the efficient movement of goods and people but also improves the connectivity between
markets, hence, reducing costs and boosting trade across the sub-region. Transport corridors are
increasingly seen to stimulate regional integration as well as economic growth. The interaction of
improved trade, enhanced connectivity, and converging regulations can accelerate growth and can benefit
the slower-growing and landlocked countries in the region (Ahmed, Kelegama and Ghani, 2010).
Countries in the sub-region have been working towards enhanced national connectivity, especially since
the Covid-19 pandemic. For example, Bangladesh has been focusing on enhancing connectivity throughthe physical alignment of the Asian Highway Route, and through implementing the South Asia sub-regional
Economic Cooperation (SASEC) Corridor projects in the country to improve international and regionaltransport and logistics network.
The Maldives, an island state, is focussing on increasing the connectivity of the administrative islands andimproving the mobility of individuals, goods and services. The Maldives’ Flight Plan 2020-25 is the firstlong-term aviation policy that addresses the necessity of connectivity developments within andinternationally for the Maldives through safe and economically sustainable aviation practices. In Nepal, alandlocked country, the government wants to provide road access to all district headquarters and improve
national and international transport connectivity; North-South corridors and links from the Southernborder (India) to the Northern border (China) are also the government’s priority. The government ofTurkey is starting to plan new standards for resilient global supply chains based on lessons learned fromthe global pandemic.
The national transport agendas and plans by the countries in the sub-region have been giving greater
importance to regional transport connectivity as well as global linkages in the recent past. Investment inrail, road and inland waterways are all viable ways of enhancing connectivity. There are several national,
bilateral and multilateral projects in the sub-region that support this aim of enhancing regional
connectivity. Some of these most recent ones are listed below.
Table 1. Regional connectivity projects in South and Southwest Asia
Project

Goal

The Nepal-India Regional Trade and Transport Project(2013-21) by the World Bank

Decreasing transport time and logistics costs for bilateral trade
between Nepal and India and also transport trade along theKathmandu-Kolkata corridor. Traders would benefit from reduced
infrastructure bottlenecks in Nepal and the adoption of modern
approaches to border management (World Bank, 2021a).

The Transport Connectivity Improvement Preparatory Supporting the improvement of transport connectivity and facilitation
Facility Project (2020-24) in Bangladesh, funded by the of multimodal transport in the country and in South Asia (ADB,
Asian Development Bank
2020a).

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Project

Goal

The Khyber Pass Economic Corridor Project(2018-26) by the World Bank

Enhancing economic activity between Pakistan and Afghanistan by
improving regional connectivity, including the development of thePeshawar – Kabul – Dushanbe Expressway (World Bank, 2021d).

The Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul Road Transport
Moving goods across multiple international borders, saving time andCorridor Project
costs for transport operators and customs authorities while ensuring(2011-21), agreed at the 8th ECO Ministers of Transport safety and reliability (Global Trailer, 2021).
and Communications meeting in Turkmenistan in 2011
The Trans-Caspian East-West-Middle Corridor

A priority in Turkey's infrastructure investment aiming to provide
high-quality intermodal transport and logistics services, harmonisecross-border rates, and automate cargo transport services along thecorridor. It starts from Southeast Asia and China runs throughKazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and further toEuropean countries.

The Bangladesh, Bhutan, India (BBIN) Motor Vehicle
Agreement and the India, Myanmar, Thailand (1MT)
Trilateral Highway agreement

Improving the regional transport connectivity via road withinneighbouring countries.

The sub-region also hosts numerous regional co-operation programmes and organisations. Some of these
are the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), South Asia Sub-regional Economic
Cooperation (SASEC) and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic
Cooperation (BIMSTEC).
SAARC is a regional intergovernmental organisation with member states including Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It is dedicated to improving thewelfare of the people of South Asia through economic growth, social progress and cultural development.
The SAARC Development Fund finances regional opportunities via three categories: socially, economically,
and through infrastructure. It has highlighted the importance of developing transport infrastructure andtransit facilities, especially for landlocked countries, as a means to promote intra-SAARC trade.
SASEC unites Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, and Sri Lanka in a project-based
partnership to promote regional prosperity by improving cross-border connectivity, facilitating faster andless costly trade among member countries, and strengthening regional economic co-operation. Under the
SASEC transport programme, regional connectivity improvements aim to increase sub-regional trade andimprove the competitiveness of local industries, particularly for Bhutan and Nepal, which are landlocked,
as the deficiency of the cross-border infrastructure network results in high transport costs and impedes
regional integration and trade with indirect neighbours.
BIMSTEC is a regional organisation comprising seven member states, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar,
Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. It focuses on sharing regional resources and geographical advantages toaccelerate growth within these countries. Connectivity has been one of the main areas of co-operation in
the BIMSTEC since its established in 1997. It has always emphasised an importance for regional
co-operation and integration to accelerate economic growth and social development.

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Box 2. Supporting regional co-operation on sustainable freight in Asia Pacific
The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) is working on aregional strategy to deepen sustainability in freight transport and give further momentum and coherence
to initiatives being undertaken at the region-wide level for Asia-Pacific. The outline of the proposed
strategy addresses common challenges and offers a guiding vision, objectives, linkages to SDGs directly
supported, enablers, priority areas and implementation arrangements. This policy document could bringa range of stakeholders onto a common platform to plan and implement sustainable freight-transport
policies that contribute to achieving SDGs in the decade of action for sustainable development.
Regional strategy to deepen sustainable freight transport in Asia and the Pacific
Guiding visionObjectives

Efficient, connected, safe and clean regional freight transport system tosupport the realisation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Providing coherence to the sustainable freight initiatives
Creating synergies through partnerships
Ensuring high-level political affirmation
Sharpening the links between freight transport policies and SDGs

SDGs supported directly
Enablers or cross-cutting issues

SDG Targets 9.1, 9.a, 3.6, 12.3, 9.4, 7.3, 13.1
Strengthening governance for sustainable freight transport at a national
level
Enhancing co-ordination for sustainable freight transport at sub-regional
level
Building the capacity of transport officials
Promoting use of digital transport technologies
Encouraging private sector engagement for sustainable freight transport
policies
Diversifying sources of financing for sustainable freight transport

Priority areas

Decarbonising freight transport
Building resilience of freight transport to effectively deal with climate
challenges and pandemics
Strengthening cross-border and transit-transport connectivity
Enhancing rural freight transport linkages
Improving urban freight logistics
Reducing freight-transport-related accidents
Increasing share of rail freight and other sustainable transport modes

Implementing arrangements

Establishing a sustainable freight co-ordinating platform
Developing a sub-regional action plan on sustainable freight transport
Monitoring and evaluating through a results framework

Source: ITF (2022).

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RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELSLack of transport connectivity and poor infrastructure in the sub-region have resulted in high costs of tradetransactions and low volumes of intra-regional trade. Increased regional connectivity leads to increased
trade within the region. Short-distance trade between partners means that supply chains are also shorter,
leading to fewer emissions from trade. Growth in regional trade is therefore also aligned with the objectiveof meeting sustainability targets. To this end, the regional co-operation agreements and organisations, likethe ones mentioned above, play an important role in facilitating enhanced trade within the region throughimproved regional connectivity.
A recent step towards regional connectivity that also promotes sustainable transport in Asia and the Pacificis the new Regional Action Programme (RAP) for 2022 to 2026 (UNESCAP 2021d). Adopted by ESCAP
Member Countries in December 2021, it advises concerted actions to address rising freight and passenger
volumes and rapid urbanisation with high motorisation rates, and encourages accelerated use of digitaltechnologies, deployment of smart transport systems and transitioning towards more inclusive and lowcarbon transport systems.
There is a lack of sufficient and cost-effective cross-border transport alternatives within the South andSouthwest Asia sub-region. Some examples are several different technical standards to be adhered to,inconsistent and complex border-crossing procedures and excessive documentation. To facilitate
multimodal transport across the region, countries should work on removing these barriers andharmonising procedures, standards and regulations. Unilateral measures usually have a limited impact ontransport facilitation since gains on one side of the border may be lost on the other. Regional co-operationis therefore essential.

The trade dimension: Measuring connectivity gaps
A large part of South and Southwest Asia is connected through integrated road and rail networks. It is partof the regional land transport network, as formalised by the intergovernmental Agreements on the Asian
Highway Network, the Trans-Asian Railway Network and Dry Ports.
Despite efforts made to enhance connectivity in the region and the existence of bilateral and multilateralfree trade agreements, South Asia remains one of the least economically connected regions in the world(Sinha and Sareen, 2020). Several factors have led to this outcome, some of which include protectionist
policies, high logistics cost, lack of political will and a broader trust deficit. Sinha and Sareen (2020)
estimate that intra-regional trade in South Asia accounts for about 6% of total global trade, whereas in
East Asia and the Pacific it accounts for almost 50% and its 22% in Sub-Saharan Africa (Kathuria, 2018).
There is a connectivity gap between countries in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region and thedeveloped economies in the rest of the world. Overall, the connectivity (measured in terms of access to
global GDP) is half of, or less-than-half of that of most developed economies. This is driven by a multitudeof factors. The landlocked countries of Afghanistan, Nepal and Bhutan have an added disadvantage of lackof access to markets through effective and low-cost maritime connections. Other factors that have an
impact on connectivity include the physical distance, lack of infrastructure and operational connectivity,and more broadly on the availability of trade corridors and transit systems (ITF, 2019; UNESCAP, 2019b).
Figure 7 shows the impact of distances on reaching global centres of production and consumption for thecountries in South and Southwest Asia. The Maldives is not included in this analysis due to the lack of data
for this particular study. The comparison for each is made to the Netherlands since it is currently estimatedto be the best performer for the connectivity indicator in the world. The United States is included as an
example of a large, developed economy with significant international trade. A manufacturer in the

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RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELSNetherlands can reach 20% of the global GDP within a 1 000 km distance and the United States can reachthe same percentage within2 000 kilometres. For a Bangladeshi manufacturer, the average distance forthe same 20% is over 4 000 kilometres. This distance is already a major obstacle to trade. As shown in the
figure below, all the countries in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region have half, or less-than-half theconnectivity observed in the Netherlands and the United States. Turkey is an exception where 20% of the
global GDP can be reached within almost the same distance as the United States.
Box 3 explains an indicator that can be used to estimate the connectivity of one country relative to another.
The connectivity gap of countries in the sub-region is almost 50% that of the Netherlands (Figure 8). This
adversely impacts the ability of the countries to integrate into global value chains (ITF, 2019).
Figure 7. Impact of distances on reaching global centres of production
and consumption for South and Southwest Asia countries

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RESHAPING TRANSPORT IN THE FACE OF ENORMOUS POPULATION GROWTH AND DEPENDENCE ON FOSSIL FUELS

Planning for transport logistics involves many different stakeholders, complex procedures, andco-ordination between the public and private sectors. Transport and connectivity policies should focus on
reducing the logistical barriers and harmonising procedures, thus making up for the countries in the Southand Southwest Asia sub-region being far from global economic centres. To reduce the connectivity gap,
countries need to focus not only on transport costs but also on reducing border crossing times and theirvariability. This is important because increased border crossing times and delays at the border also increase
the logistics costs.
Historically, the sub-region has high total costs of trade, which is due to lower productivity, high energy
costs, transportation costs, specific duties, tariffs, and customs duties (ADB, 2009). The trade costs of subregional countries are among the highest in the world, with intra-regional trade costs much more thandouble that of neighbouring East and Southeast Asia regions (UNESCAP, 2019a). Improvements in crossborder infrastructure, especially through road and rail links, are key to enhancing connectivity in theregion. Improved infrastructure will lead to greater connectivity which would, in turn, strengthen
production networks in the sub-region.
Figure 8. Connectivity gap for South and Southwest Asia countries compared with the Netherlands

Note: AFG = Afghanistan; BGD = Bangladesh; BTN = Bhutan; IND = India; IRN = Islamic Republic of Iran; LKA=Sri Lanka; NPL = Nepal; PAK = Pakistan; TUR = Turkey

Several initiatives in the last few years have already been implemented, including the upgrading of landcustoms stations to Integrated Check Posts (ICPs) in India, the extension of rail networks such as theAgartala – Akhaura railway link (Bangladesh) and the Jogbani – Biratnagar railway line (Nepal), theestablishment of the second border check-post between India and Myanmar (Zokhawthar – Rikhawdar).
Such improvements in cross-border infrastructure are essential to enhance connectivity in this sub-region.

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Box 3. Measuring the connectivity gap between countries
The methodological approach for measuring connectivity in this report is a gravity-based model whichmeasures how many opportunities (defined as GDP) can be reached from each country relative to othercountries. The explanatory components are calculated for road, rail and maritime transport modes andinclude distance, transport cost (including border crossing and handling cost), travel time (speed) andborder crossing time.
The following formula represents the indicator structure:𝐼𝐼 =𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝑐𝑐
𝛼𝛼
𝑔𝑔𝑐𝑐
𝑐𝑐 𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐 � �𝛽𝛽 ��where g is the generalised cost, including all the explanatory factors; α is the elasticity of the index to thegeneralised cost and is set to equal 0.4 (a commonly used value for trade patterns elasticities); β isarbitrarily set so that the ratio gc/β is always below one and close to 1 for adjacent countries.
The index measures the “economic space” available to trade by country, given the explanatory factors.
Source: extract from ITF (2019), “Enhancing Connectivity and Freight in Central Asia”, International Transport
Forum Policy Papers, No. 71, OECD Publishing, Paris., p.45

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FREIGHT TRANSPORT: MANAGING THE TRIPLING OF DEMAND

Freight transport: Managing the tripling of demand
The freight transport sector is crucial in the development of a sustainable transport system and reducing
transport emissions from the sector. The sector is also an important facilitator of regional trade among thecountries in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region and beyond. Freight transport in the sub-region was
responsible for 45% of total transport CO2 emissions in 2015. Even with the most ambitious set of
mitigation policies, the demand for freight transport is projected to almost triple by 2050. Robust and rapid
action is required to limit the associated emissions from the sector.
Freight currently accounts for about 45% of total transport emissions in the sub-region and will still be
responsible for 40% of emissions by 2050, under current policies. However, ambitious policies can lead toa 23% decrease in the demand for freight transport by 2050, compared to the current trajectory, as shownin Figure 9. For example, new measures implemented under the Reshape scenario which would issue ashift in current policy paradigm would mean that emissions from freight transport could be 62% less by
2050 than in Recover (business-as-usual) scenario by that same time, and 27% less than they were in 2015.
The reductions in a Reshape+ scenario which would not only reinforce and reshape current policy but also
leverage on lessons learned from the Covid-19 pandemic are even greater. They would be 73% below
where Recover will take things by 2050 and be 48% less than they were in 2015.
Freight transport and trade are highly interrelated. After a brief slump in trade supply and demand due tothe Covid-19 pandemic, the trade volumes quickly bounced back to pre-pandemic levels and continue torise in South and Southwest Asia. This is also reflected in the demand for freight transport increasing
sharply in the coming years, especially under the Recover scenario. South Asia is expected to grow by 7.1%
in 2021-22 (World Bank, 2021c). At the same time, South Asia remains the region that is unable to realise
its full potential for trade. The intra-regional trade constitutes less than 5% of the total trade among South
Asian countries. Despite liberalisation in tariffs by South Asian countries, average tariffs in the region
remain high. Several efforts have been made to promote intra-regional trade by countries in the sub-region
and to overcome such barriers to trade, especially in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic. Increased
trade regionalisation, when combined with the measures under the Reshape+ scenario, can lead to slower
growth in freight activity in the region.
Figure 9. Freight activity for surface, domestic air and sea movements in South and Southwest to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+ refer to the three scenarios
modelled, which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

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Non-urban freight transport: Encouraging the sustainable
movement of goods
Non-urban freight transport accounted for 97% activity in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region’s
freight sector in 2015. Under the current trajectory (Recover), the total demand for non-urban freighttransport increases by almost a factor of 4 between 2015 and 2050, as shown in Figure 10. The same total
increase comes to 3.1 times for the Reshape and 2.8 times for the Reshape+ scenarios. As in mosteconomies, maritime transport plays a central role as an international trade enabler for South andSouthwest Asia due to the long distances required for the international movement of goods and accounts
for substantial tonne-kilometres. It remains the mode that accounts for the largest share under non-urban
freight throughout all the scenarios, followed by road and then rail transport.
Comparing Reshape+ to Recover in 2050, the total demand for air, sea, inland and road transport decreases
while the demand for rail transport increases. With 7% of non-urban freight activity in 2015, rail as a mode
will capture 12% in Recover, 15% in Reshape and 19% Reshape+ by 2050. This is reflective of the policy
actions that the sub-region takes in the coming decades, with an emphasis on development as well as the
improvement of rail infrastructure and the introduction of carbon taxation. However, even with thisgrowth in the share of rail transport for non-urban freight, sea freight will continue to remain the dominantmode of surface transport in all three scenarios for most countries the sub-region. The share of air freightactivity, measured in tonne-kilometres, remains constant in the sub-region at less than 1% throughout all
the scenarios.
Figure 10. Non-urban freight demand by mode and scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

Emissions projections for non-urban freight

The emissions from the non-urban freight sector are projected to increase by 87% in 2050 under Recoverassumptions but decline from 2015 levels by 24% in Reshape and 47% in Reshape+, as shown in Figure 11.
This can be partly explained by a 16% activity drop in Reshape and 24% drop in Reshape+ compared to
Recover, in 2050. The emissions peak by 2020 and then fall temporarily due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Figure 11 shows that under Recover, the tank-to-wheel emissions from non-urban freight transport inSouth and Southwest Asia do not peak until 2050. Under Reshape, emissions initially fall in the aftermathof Covid-19 but then rise until 2030 before they start declining. Under Reshape+ policies, with the efforts

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to leverage the decarbonisation opportunities of the Covid-19 recovery, the emissions fall continuously
starting from the year 2020.
Figure 11. Non-urban freight tank-to-wheel emissions by scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, which represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

It is also interesting to compare the trends between demand and emissions for non-urban freighttransport, shown in Figure 12. Even though road transport accounts for 33-38% of the total demand, itsemissions vary between 83-89% of the total emissions from the non-urban freight sector. Similarly, while
the share of sea freight tonne-kilometres ranges between 45-59% under the different scenarios, it only
accounts for 5-8% of emissions up to 2050. This discrepancy between the share of tonne-kilometres andthe share of emissions can be explained through the carbon intensity per tonne-kilometre of different
modes; road freight is and remains highly carbon-intensive in the sub-region.
The demand for rail transport increases between 2015 and 2050 with tonne-kilometres rising by six toeight times across scenarios. Additionally, the emissions from rail transport double between 2015 and2050 under the Recover scenario and remain approximately the same during the same period for Reshape
and Reshape+, even as the tonne-kilometres increase under these two scenarios. This reflects the greeningof rail transport in the sub-region. Several countries in the sub-region have already put in place targets toelectrify their railways and improve and enhance the network, which can significantly limit emissions fromthis mode when combined with cleaner energy grids of the future.
Decarbonisation of the freight sector can be advanced through a combination of policy actions. Some ofthe solutions that are readily available for road freight include aerodynamic retrofits, reduced-rolling
resistance of tyres, vehicle weight reduction, increased engine efficiency and hybridisation (ITF, 2021b). In
the rail sector, battery electric and hybrid hydrogen fuel cell traction systems have gained prominence asalternatives to the more costly traditional decarbonisation methods with recent technologicaldevelopments.

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Figure 12. Non-urban freight demand and emissions by modal split for South and Southwest Asia to 2050
Air

Rail

River

Road

Sea

100%

Demand

80%
60%
40%
20%

2030

Reshape+Reshape

Recover

Reshape+

2020

Reshape

Covid-19

2015

RecoverBaseline

0%2050

Emissions

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%

2030

Reshape+Reshape

Recover

Reshape+

2020

Reshape

Covid-19

2015

RecoverBaseline

0%2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

These measures can be further strengthened through fuel economy and CO2 emission standards, pricing
mechanisms and other incentives, such as zero-emissions zones, charging infrastructure, promoting offpeak deliveries, voluntary emissions reduction programmes, to name a few. Such measures are detailed
in various ITF and ESCAP publications, including the Transport Climate Action Directory (ITF, 2021c),“Regulations and Standards for Clean Trucks and Buses: On the Right Track?” (ITF, 2020b), “Enhancing shift
towards Sustainable Freight Transport in Asia and the Pacific-Opportunities through railway
Decarbonization” (UNESCAP, 2021e), “Towards Road Freight Decarbonisation Trends, Measures andPolicies” (ITF, 2018a), “Decarbonising Maritime Transport Pathways to zero-carbon shipping by 2035” (ITF,
2018b) and, “How Urban Delivery Vehicles can Boost Electric Mobility” (ITF, 2020a).

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Urban freight transport: Improving efficiencies and fleets
The South and Southwest Asia sub-region is experiencing rapid urbanisation that is set to continue. By
2050, 52% of the sub-region’s population (1.3 billion people) will be living in cities. As cities experience
increasing population growth and e-commerce becomes more prevalent, urban freight transport will
become a major sector when it comes to the decarbonisation of transport.
Urban freight transport usually includes multiple short-distance trips with small carry loads. These trips
represented only 3% of total freight activity in 2015 but were very carbon intensive. Even though they
make up a small proportion of the total demand for freight transport in the sub-region, urban delivery trips
account for 8% of all total emissions from the transport sector.
The demand for urban freight transport, under the current policy ambitions, could increase by seven times
between 2015 and 2050, reaching 1 539 billion tonne-kilometres, as shown in Figure 13. Under all threepolicy scenarios, the activity in urban freight transport already more than doubles between 2015 and 2030.
Under a set of highly ambitious policies in the Reshape+, the demand in 2050 could be reduced by 11%,compared to what it would be for Recover.
Figure 13. Total urban freight tonne-kilometres by scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

Emissions projections for urban freightAs shown in Figure 14, CO2 emissions will more-than-double under the Recover scenario between 2015
and 2050. After a temporary fall between 2020 and 2025, the emissions begin rising again and would peakbeyond 2050, under current policies. Under the more ambitious Reshape and Reshape+ scenarios, 2020
becomes the year when the emissions peak for urban freight transport and will fall continuously after,
rapidly between 2020 and 2025 and then gradually beyond 2025. Under Reshape+, with a set of highly
ambitious policies, the emissions in 2050 could be almost 80% lower in 2050, compared to what it would
be for Recover.

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Mt CO2

Figure 14. Urban freight tank-to-wheel CO2 emissions by scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

Solutions, such as switching to alternative fuels, carbon pricing, stricter emission standards, zero-emissions
zones, more recharging points and incentives for greening the entire vehicle fleets are all viable options inthe short term for urban freight transport. Some other ways in which the carbon footprint of the sector
can be reduced include training of drivers (eco-driving), incentivising off-peak deliveries, creatingcollection points, route optimisation, fuel economy and CO2 emission standards, pricing mechanisms, zeroemissions zones and voluntary emissions reduction programmes. Collaboration between different fleetsby different companies, such as sharing vehicles to reduce empty runs, can reduce both costs andemissions.

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PASSENGER TRANSPORT: SEPARATING TRANSPORT DEMAND FROM ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Passenger transport: Separating transportdemand from economic activity
As economies and the populations of the countries in the sub-region continue to grow in the coming
decades, so does the number of people who want to and have the means to travel. This section outlines
the projections for passenger transport in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region. Passenger transport
includes both urban passenger transport and non-urban passenger transport unless specified otherwise.
The growth in the economy is bound to grow the demand for transport activity. In turn, this inevitably
leads to an increase in emissions from the transport sector. Therefore, to sustain a strong and growing
economy while meeting the climate targets of the transport sector it is essential that the sub-region
decouples the demand for transport from economic activity.
Passenger demand in South and Southwest Asia is projected to quadruple between 2015 and 2050 under
Recover scenario of current policy ambitions (Figure 15). Under Reshape and Reshape+, the demand forpassenger activity still increases but is constrained by ambitious policies. The demand for passenger
transport can drop by 17%, from roughly 3.6 trillion passenger-kilometres to 2.9 trillion passengerkilometres under Reshape+, compared to the business-as-usual Recover one.
Figure 15. Passenger activity in South and Southwest Asia by scenario to 2050

Billion passenger kilometres

40 00035 00030 00025 000
20 000
15 000
10 000
5 000
0
2015

2030

2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

The demand for passenger transport is comprised of urban and non-urban cohorts. Urban passenger
transport demand accounts for all passenger transport that takes place within cities. Non-urban passenger
transport demand is the sum of regional (peri-urban and rural) and intercity transport. The demand for
non-urban passenger transport is considerably greater than urban passenger transport under all the
scenarios in 2050 (Figures 18 and 21). Though the demand split is almost even between urban andnon-urban passenger transport until 2030, non-urban passenger demand experiences high growth of
135-140% between 2030-50. This growth is mainly driven by an increase in the demand for rail transportthat would be needed to meet sustainability goals.

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Emissions in the passenger transport sector could grow by 145%, increasing from 579 million tonnes of CO2
in 2015 to 1 142 million tonnes of CO2 in 2050. This trend can be reversed under the Reshape and Reshape+
scenarios. These can decrease the emissions in 2050 by 10% with Reshape policies and 15% with Reshape+.
Figure 16 shows that under the current ambition (Recover scenario), the emissions from the passenger
sector for the sub-region do not peak until 2050. Whereas, under both Reshape scenarios, emissions fromthe sector peak by 2030.
The total baseline emissions from freight and passenger transport in the sub-region are split quite evenly,
with passenger transport accounting for 54% of the total emissions (Figure 17). This split between
passenger and freight transport becomes more uneven as time draws closer to 2050. Under the Recover
scenario, the total emissions are split 59% for passenger and 42% for freight transport in 2050. Under
Reshape+, this gap widens to 64% and 36% between passenger and freight transport emissions.
Most of these emissions from the passenger sector come from non-urban transport between 2015 and2050. The trend is similar for freight transport. Urban freight transport accounts for a small percentage
throughout the period, totalling up to 8% of total emissions in 2050, under Recover. On the other hand,
non-urban freight transport is responsible for 32% of total emissions in 2050, in the same scenario. While
the total emissions from the transport sector can drop drastically under Reshape+, non-urban travel
continues to account for most emissions; 51% from passenger travel and 30% from freight transport in
2050.
Figure 16. Passenger transport emissions by scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

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Figure 17. Total tank-to-wheel emissions for freight and passenger transport by scenario
in South and Southwest Asia to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

Urban passenger transport: Cleaner vehicle fleets crucial for
reducing emissions
The demand for urban passenger transport includes active travel modes, public transport, informal public
transport, private vehicles, shared vehicles and shared trips. Urban passenger trips accounted for 41% of
the total demand for passenger travel in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region in 2015. In absoluteterms, the demand for urban transport grows from 3.5 trillion passenger-kilometres in 2015 to
14 trillion passenger-kilometres in 2050, under the Recover scenario. This represents a 305% increase inurban passenger transport activity during the period. However, with highly ambitious policies under
the Reshape+ scenario, the demand for urban passenger transport is 34% lower at
9.5 trillion passenger-kilometres in 2050 than a business-as-usual situation.

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Figure 18. Urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport. Active mobility andmicromobility include walking, biking, scooter-sharing, and bike-sharing. Public transport includes PT rail, metro,bus, LRT, and BRT. Paratransit includes informal buses and PT three-wheeler. Shared vehicle includes motorcycle
and car-sharing. Private Vehicle includes motorcycles and cars. Shared mobility includes taxis, ridesharing, andtaxi buses.

Population size, changing demographics, economic activity and land-use patterns are interconnected andinevitable elements that will shape the demand for urban passenger transport. The urban population for
the South and Southwest Asia sub-region is expected to double (UNDESA, 2018) between 2015 and 2050.
The demand for urban passenger transport is expected to remarkably exceed this growth by a factor of
approximately 2.6 in Reshape+ and 4 in the Recover scenario.
Private vehicles remain the dominant mode of urban and non-urban transport under all scenarios for thedifferent years through 2050. Comparing the baseline with 2050, the passenger-kilometres for private
vehicles increase by a factor of 3.7 under Recover and 2.1 under Reshape+. The total share of private
vehicles declines between 2015 and 2050 by 2% in the Recover scenario to 7% in Reshape+, reflecting a
gradual shift away from private vehicles. By 2050, there is a noticeable increase in the proportion of shared
trips, which amount to almost 1% in 2015 and 2% in 2020. By 2050 shared trips account for 7% of the total
activity by 2050 under business-as-usual policies (Recover) but by 12% under more ambitious policies ofReshape+. The two Reshapes encourage the move towards shared mobility in urban areas. When it comesto active travel, the proportion declines between 2015 and 2050 under Recover but increases by
4 percentage points under Reshape and Reshape+.
The total emissions from urban areas in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region are projected to increaseby 26% under the Recover scenario between the 2015 and 2050, as shown in Figure 19. These can behalved by 2050. A reduction of 49% is possible using Reshape policies or even 52% with Reshape+
ambitions.

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In the baseline scenario, private vehicles account for almost 60% of the total emissions from the urban
passenger transport sector. This matches the activity split from urban passenger transport where private
vehicles also account for most passenger-kilometres. The share of emissions from private vehicles
increases to around 70% in all three scenarios by 2020. By 2050, the share of emissions from private
vehicles reduces across all the scenarios, dropping to 38% under Recover and 22% under Reshape+.
Informal public transport is the second-highest CO2 emitting mode in the baseline scenario, accounting for
25% of the total emissions in and around the cities. By 2050, the emissions from informal public transport
reduce to 16% of the total under Recover. Under Reshape and Reshape+, the proportion of CO2 emissions
from informal public transport reduces to 9% of the total by 2050. In absolute terms, the emissions frominformal public transport reduce by a factor of almost 6, between the baseline scenario and Reshape+. The
absolute demand for informal public transport, however, remains more or less constant when comparing
the baseline and Reshape+ in 2050. This reflects a shift towards cleaner fleets in informal public transport.
The proportion of emissions from public transport remains relatively constant between the baseline and2050. These emissions differ between 13% under Recover and 15% with Reshape+. In absolute terms,
emissions from public transport are projected to more-than-double between 2015 and 2050 under
Recover and projected to be halved by 2050 under Reshape+. This falls in line with the slight shift indemand towards public transport that can be observed in Figure 19.
There is an increase in the demand for shared trips (Figure 19) between the baseline scenario and the
Reshape+ scenario in 2050 by almost a factor of 39. This translates to the increase in emissions from shared
trips in urban areas under all three scenarios. In fact, the emissions from shared rides increase by 270%.
More precisely, from 2.3 million tonnes of CO2 to 64 million tonnes of CO2. Under Reshape and Reshape+,the emissions increase by 126%, still a significant increase but half that under Recover.
Cities in South and Southwest Asia will have to adopt smarter and more sustainable ways to travel tomitigate increased emissions from urban passenger transport caused by rapid urbanisation. Moresustainable urban mobility will mean improving public, shared and active transport services, combinedwith encouraging reduced use of private vehicles in cities. This can be achieved by prioritising funding forsustainable public transport, providing financial incentives for increasing the uptake ofelectric vehicles (EVs) and other new fuel technologies and ensuring adequate charging infrastructure.
Integrating transport, and land use and planning will also be crucial for managing the rising urban travel
demand.

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Figure 19. Urban passenger emissions by mode and scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

Accessibility

As cities grapple with the impacts of Covid-19 on urban transport, it is important to remember that these
impacts could be significant in the short as well as medium to long term. In most countries, a fall has been
observed in the usage of bus and metro services, and instances of shared mobility have dropped as well.
One survey reports that roughly 35% of the commuters in India are likely to change their mode of transport
for work trips post Covid-19 ( Thakur, P. et al., 2020). This shift is expected to be towards increased use ofprivate vehicles and intermediate public transport (IPT) such as taxis and auto-rickshaws. The share of nonmotorised modes may also rise, particularly for short-distance trips. Overall, the study indicates anincrease in private vehicles in Indian cities in the aftermath of the crisis. The problems of congestion andpollution that are already grave in Indian cities could worsen in the coming years. Similar trends can be
expected in the other countries in the sub-region.
The impacts of the pandemic on urban transport are not limited to passenger transport. The rise of
e-commerce during and after the crisis could also lead to increased emissions. Combined, the increased
use of private vehicles and rising activity in urban freight could lead to congestion in urban areas. It isessential for policy makers to anticipate these impacts and to mitigate the adverse effects of the pandemic
in a targeted manner. Looking at the trends emerging in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis with theincreasing urbanisation in countries in the sub-region, a rise in congestion in the cities seems inevitable.
Several of the cities in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region already rank very high in congestion
globally. According to the TomTom Traffic Index, three Indian cities (Mumbai, Bengaluru and New Delhi)
and Istanbul all come in the top ten most-congested cities in the world.
Congestion is measured as a share of the available transport network capacity consumed on average overthe day. Congestion in cities of the sub-region falls, on average, between 2015 and 2050, under Recover.
For cities with less than 100 000 inhabitants, the average proportion of the network consumed by traffic
over the course of the day falls to 1% from 19% between 2050 and 2015. For cities with a population
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between 100 000 and 300 000 inhabitants, the average use of the network falls very sharply, from morethan 50% consumption to approximately 4% during the same period. In cities with between 300 000 and
1 million inhabitants, the congestion is the worst when compared with other smaller or bigger cities at
70% in 2015. This falls to 4% in Recover and 3% in the Reshape scenarios in 2050. Finally, cities with over1 million inhabitants also experience a steep decline in the average use of network consumed from
57% in 2015 to 3% under Recover and 2% under Reshape and Reshape+ in 2050.
Attractive walking and cycling infrastructure in cities are crucial to encourage the use of active modes overshort-trip distances taken by vehicles. As cities grow and policies that promote active modes are created,the modal dependency for shorter trips will reduce due to the reduction in the availability of public
transport modes and shared mobility for shorter trips. Looking at the availability of modal mix in the cities,
we can estimate the dependency of passengers on a given mode to complete a journey of a given length.
Box 3 explains in detail the methodology behind this indicator that is used to understand the modal
dependency. The modal dependency changes over time under each individual scenario.
Under the ambitious Reshape and Reshape+ scenarios, the modal dependency tends to become more
uniform over time. These scenarios include more sustainable mode choices being available. This will
improve modal dependency, especially through shared mobility, which is expected to become moreprevalent with time. A significant part of the transport demand is met through informal modes in the subregion. Over time, as these informal modes are formalised by standards and regulations, there will be anincrease in the shared trips, rather than the introduction of new modes altogether. For this reason, drasticchanges in modal dependency in the sub-region will not occur before 2050.

Box 4. Measuring systemic modal dependency
The methodological approach for measuring modal dependency in this report is an entropy-based
indicator that provides an indication of the diversity and viability of modal alternatives. The following
formula represents the indicator structure:
𝑘𝑘

𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸 = − �𝑖𝑖=1𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖 ∙ ln(𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑖 )ln(𝑘𝑘)

where pk is the proportion of the total realised mobility performed with the kth transport mode type. In
this study, available modes are grouped into five categories (k = 5) of transport modes: (1) nonmotorised (including micromobility), (2) private vehicles (including but not limited to cars), (3) sharedmotorised, (4) heavy public transport (i.e., trains, metros/subways, trams, bus rapid transit), (5) lightequivalent public transport.
The index measures the viable transport alternatives available to travel in a particular city based on thecurrent conditions and the estimated mobility and mode choice. It is an application of the entropy index
used to measure land-use mix developed by Potoglou and Kanaroglou (2008), based on Cervero andKockelman (1997).
0 represents a dependency on a single transport mode, and one a uniform distribution between thetransport modes.
Source: ITF (2022).

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Transport affordability is measured as a proportion of the available GDP per capita that is spent on mobility
per year. The ambitious policies of the Reshape+ scenario result in slight improvements in transport
affordability for all cities of under one million inhabitants. In cities with more than one million inhabitants,
which tend to have higher mobility costs to begin with, there is a small deterioration in the affordability
between Recover and Reshape+. At the same time, it is important to note that the policies under Reshape+in cities with over one million inhabitants lead to an average 16-minute improvement in public transport
accessibility.
The ascending measures applied between the three scenarios clearly contrast the impacts on the public
transport and road networks. As shown in Figure 20, there are differences between the Recover andReshape+ scenarios by 2050 regarding the average time it takes by either mode to travel from the centreof the city to its edge. Under Reshape+, travel times improve for both cars and public transport accessibility
in three of the four city size categories. Only cities in the 300 000 to 1 million inhabitants category see a
decline in accessibility by car, and the second-lowest improvement in public transport. The smallest cities(fewer than 100 000 inhabitants) gain less than one minute in improvements to public transport
accessibility between the Recover and Reshape+ scenario. People in larger cities will benefit most from thepublic transport accessibility gains shaped by the more ambitious Reshape+ policies. These ambitious
policies create an 18-minute improvement for the public transport accessibility in cities larger than one
million people, compared to the Recover.
Figure 20. Difference in average travel time across the radius of a city in 2050 under the Reshape+ scenario
compared to the Recover scenario in South and Southwest Asia, by car and public transport

Non-urban passenger transport: Increasing low-emission vehicles
and fuels
In 2015, non-urban passenger demand for the sub-region was around 5 trillion passenger-kilometres, with90% coming from domestic transport in the sub-region. In absolute terms, non-urban passenger activity
would at least quadruple by 2050 compared to 2015, under all scenarios. Under Recover it grows by 318%

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and by 300% under Reshape. Reshape+ will limit demand growth by another 7 percentage points to 293%,
aided by policies that encourage teleconferencing and local tourism to continue after the pandemic.
Figure 21. Non-urban passenger demand by mode and scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

Rail transport, of all modes, is the one that experiences the highest growth between 2020 and 2050,
increasing by the same growth of almost 330% across all the scenarios. The total activity under railtransport increases by an even factor of roughly 4.3 under all the scenarios between 2020 and 2050. Railtransport also remains the dominant mode of transport for non-urban passenger travel under all scenarios
and years. In 2050, it accounts for 54% of the total demand under Recover and about 58% under Reshape+.
The share of rail transport increases when comparing Recover scenario to the more sustainably focused
Reshape+. Accordingly, there is a decrease in the shares of private road transport (cars and two-wheelers)and bus transport under Reshape+. The growth in rail transport in the sub-region is reflective of theplanned investment in the development of rail infrastructure; increased frequencies as well as the movetowards high-speed rail being some of the key drivers (ADB, 2017; Railway Technology, 2020; Tehran
Times, 2020; SASEC, 2021; The Times of India, 2021). Given the lower energy and CO2 intensities of railtransport, shifting passenger activity from more intensive modes such as private cars and aeroplanes torail is critical to meeting the climate goals of the transport sector.
The Covid-19 pandemic halved the share of air transport from 12% in 2015 to 6% in 2020 under all three
scenarios. However, this fall in the share of aviation is not long-lasting as it climbs back to 16-17% of total
non-urban passenger activity in 2050. In 2015, aviation was responsible for 646 billion passengerkilometres in 2015 in absolute terms and this increases by a factor of 5 to 6, depending on the scenario,
reaching over 3 trillion passenger-kilometres in 2050.
Emissions from non-urban passenger transport in the sub-region are projected to increase by a factor of
2.5 under Recover, despite a decline caused by the Covid-19 pandemic (Figure 22). These emissions could
be drastically lower by 2050; by 61% under Reshape and 63% under Reshape+. The sector generated

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230 million tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2015 and around 200 million tonnes of CO2 emissions in 2020
under both the Reshape and Reshape+. This represents 66% of total passenger sector emissions in 2015
and 79% of total emissions under the Reshape scenarios in 2050. The increase in the share of emissions
from the non-urban passenger sector reflects the hard-to-abate nature of this sector in the South andSouthwest Asia sub-region.
The relatively constant level of emissions from the non-urban passenger sector between 2015 and 2050
can be linked to decarbonising policies curtailing emissions despite a growing demand during the same
period (Figure 22). Even as the emissions from road transport fall under the Reshape scenarios, theincrease in emissions from the aviation sector makes up for the difference, keeping the overall absoluteemissions constant.
Road transport remains the biggest contributor of emissions from 2015 to 2020. It accounts for 52% of
total non-urban passenger emissions in 2015 and 64% 2020. During the same timeframe, aviation accounts
for the second-highest share of emissions, followed by bus transport and then rail, which accounts for 3%of total emissions. By 2030, the split between emissions from aviation and road transport equalises tosome degree. Both sectors accounting for 43% in Recover, 44% in Reshape whereas aviation is at 39% androad 48% in Reshape+. By 2050, total emissions for aviation account for almost 56% under a Recover
scenario and 53% under Reshape+, followed by road transport at 35% under Recover and 36% under
Reshape+, and then bus at 7% under Recover and 8% under Reshape+ and rail at 1% for all scenarios.
Figure 22. Non-urban passenger emissions by mode and scenario for South and Southwest Asia to 2050

Note: Figure depicts ITF modelled estimates. Recover, Reshape and Reshape+, which refer to the three scenarios
modelled, represent increasingly ambitious post-pandemic policies to decarbonise transport.

Aviation has the highest emissions from the non-urban passenger sector in 2050, under all scenarios, yet
the sector can reduce its emissions under the highly ambitious scenarios. Aviation emissions amounts to
337 million tonnes of CO2 emissions under Recover, 127 million tonnes of CO2 under Reshape and
115 million tonnes of CO2 emissions under Reshape+. Despite an increase in the demand for aviation by afactor of 5 or 6 between 2015 and 2050, the emissions only increase by a factor of 5 under Recover but
under the two Reshape scenarios, they only increase by a factor of 1.8 and 1.6.

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Road transport remains the second-highest emitting mode under all scenarios in 2050. They account for
210 million tonnes of CO2 emissions under Recover: an increase by a factor of 1.7 from 2015. Between
2015 and 2050, emissions reduce to 80 million tonnes of CO2 under Reshape (a fall of 33%) and78 million tonnes of CO2 under Reshape+ (a fall of 34%). These decreases in emissions are despite thegrowth in passenger-kilometres in road transport by a factor of 2.9 under both the Reshape scenarios.
Emissions from bus transport are projected to increase by 35% between 2015 and 2050 under Recover.
However, they can be decreased by 38% with the Reshape and 40% under the Reshape+ scenarios.
Rail transport is the only mode that can reduce its emissions (by 20%) from 2015 to 2050 under Recover.
Policies under Recover see emissions increase for all other modes. Under the Reshape scenarios, theemissions reduce by 70%. The activity by rail between 2015 and 2050 increases by a factor of almost ten
under all the scenarios. This is reflective of how clean passenger as well as freight rail transport becomesover the next few decades with the right policies in place.
For the non-urban passenger sector to reduce its emissions in the coming decades, countries in the subregion will need to increase the uptake of sustainable fuels and implement carbon pricing schemes,
improve the efficiency of vehicle fleets and boost the uptake of low-carbon fuels and EVs. Some of theways in which this can be accelerated are establishing fuel mandates, providing purchase subsidies, tax
rebates and exemptions for EVs and investing in charging infrastructure. Greening the grid that powers
EVs and improving battery technologies will also be crucial in decarbonising the transport sector
comprehensively.
A paradigm shift in policy would pave the way for more sustainable non-urban passenger transport. Itsemissions can be reduced over the next three decades if the decarbonisation windfall of the Covid-19
pandemic can be reinforced and made long term. Conscious and targeted policies for decarbonisationmust be prioritised as part of economic recovery programmes to ensure that the growth of non-urban
passenger transport stays on the right path.

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Conclusions and policy insights
The transport sector is vital to people’s well-being in any region of the world. It not only facilitates the
movement of goods and services and people but also enables access to economic and social opportunities.
However, CO2 emissions from the transport sector present huge costs to society and the environment. The
Covid-19 pandemic has temporarily reduced transport emissions, but they are set to rebound unless
ambitious policies are created to address them. Hence, the transport decisions made in the coming years
will determine the path that the sector takes; one that leads to increased emissions and lowered chancesof limiting climate change and another one that sees growth in transport demand but a fall in emissions,improved resilience and sustainability of the sector and a better chance of mitigating climate change.
Target road freight to achieve significant reductions in transport CO2 emissions

If the transport sector in the sub-region is to reduce its emissions, it is essential to scale-up decarbonisation
efforts for the road freight sector. Emissions from road transport in the non-urban freight sector alone
account for 31% of the total transport emissions of the baseline and almost two-thirds of total freighttransport emissions in the sub-region. These emissions from road freight transport are projected to almost
double in 2050, under the current policy ambitions of sub-region governments.
Several solutions already exist and can be applied to advance the emissions reduction from the sector.
Some of these include aerodynamic retrofits, reduced rolling resistance in tyres, the light-weighting ofmaterials, and more fuel-efficient engine technologies. Tougher standards for fuel economy andCO2 emissions of heavy-duty vehicles must be a priority if they are to be adopted widely enough to hit
decarbonisation targets. The Covid-19 pandemic presents an opportunity to accelerate the transition
towards green road freight. Recovery programmes should prioritise green transport infrastructure and the
production, and distribution and supply of alternative fuels. Ambitious policies, such as those under the
Reshape+ scenario, can decrease the emissions from the road freight sector by 62% in 2050, as comparedto the emissions under a Recover scenario.
Freight emissions more than double in urban areas under the Recover scenario. To avoid this, targeted
policies that mitigate freight emissions in cities is crucial. Carbon pricing, deployment of charging
infrastructure, stricter emissions standards, promoting off-peak deliveries are some low-hanging fruits thatcan be adopted to reduce emissions from freight transport in cities. Addressing urban freight challenges
in the sub-region could be among the toughest transport-related due to the involvement of multiple
stakeholders. There are various ways to improve urban freight transport, including developing urban
consolidation centres, shifting freight traffic to off-peak hours at night, and online freight exchanges tomatch the demand for capacity with available supply online.
Accelerate aviation's technology and fuel transition to reduce emissions

The Covid-19 pandemic temporarily reduced the emissions from non-urban passenger transport,
particularly those from aviation. Non-urban passenger emissions reductions are achievable in road, bus
and rail transport; however the aviation sector is hard-to-abate. Under current policies, the emissions frompassenger aviation alone end up accounting for almost a quarter of the total transport emissions in 2050.
It is therefore critical to create and enact ambitious policies to decarbonise the aviation sector that limit
emissions to the extent possible.

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It is possible to halve urban passenger, urban freight and non-urban freight emissions by 2050. Emissions
compared to 2015 can be reduced by 52% for urban passenger, 54% for urban freight and 46% non-urban
freight sectors if policies are reinforced, reshaped and leverage Covid-19 recovery. Emissions from nonurban passenger transport, of which aviation is a big part, can only be reduced by 6%, even under
Reshape+.
Developments in hybrid and all-electric aircraft in the coming decades can push down the cost of synthetic
fuels, making them more commercially viable. Pushing the adoption of alternative fuels in aviation would
decrease emissions in the short term and boost innovation in the long term. Fuel mandates would also
stimulate innovation and uptake of new sustainable aviation fuel in the future, providing greater incentives
for improving aircraft efficiency. This measure would increase the cost of flying, which can help to manage
demand. Governments can help the uptake of these alternatives by taxing the use of carbon and increasing
levies on options that are currently exempt or taxed marginally. A carbon tax can also drive the availabilityof greener alternatives.
Reduce urban transport's carbon footprint by leveraging public transport andactive modes post the pandemic

The urban population in the South and Southwest Asia sub-region is expected to rise by 76% between
2020 and 2050. This will increase the demand for transport in the urban areas, several of which are alreadyhighly congested and suffering from poor air quality. Transport activity is projected to quadruple forpassenger transport and rise by seven times for freight under current policy ambitions in the sub-region.
However, if highly ambitious policies, as detailed under the Reshape+ scenario (see Annexes) are
implemented, this could reduce the demand and the total associated emissions in cities by almost 70% in
2050, compared to Recover scenario.
Proactive measures are necessary to reverse the impact of negative externalities of the changes seen in
travel patterns after the Covid-19 crisis, especially in cities. Ensuring the safety, reliability and availabilityof public transport will be essential for ensuring that the negative environmental impacts are minimised.
The promotion of active modes of transport also plays an important role in preventing an increase in theuse of private vehicles. Investing in public transport and active modes must be prioritised over developing
new infrastructure for private vehicles.
Reducing emissions from private vehicle trips will require technology improvements that increase fuelefficiency. It is essential that these technologies are affordable, especially in zones where there is a lack ofalternatives other than using private vehicles. Vehicle improvements will also be important for public
transport bus fleets as that will not only help reducing emissions but also improve the local air quality incities. It is therefore important to plan for the funding of these policies and programmes. Cities cangenerate funds from road pricing instruments and fuel taxes, in addition to targeted budgeting forsustainable urban transport in the cities.
Link decarbonisation and regional connectivity to develop resilient transport
sectors

The disruptions to supply chains caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has further complicated addressing thenegative externalities of freight transport. The pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of extended andcomplex value chains to production disruptions. Still one of the least economically integrated sub-regionsin the world, the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic can be leveraged as an opportunity to implementtargeted policies for the transport sector and improve connectivity in South and Southwest Asia.

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Building the resilience of the transport sector to deal with dynamic and unpredictable situations, including
climate-induced and natural disasters, is critical for countries in South and Southwest Asia. This can bedone through a mix of policy options. Certainly, policy makers need to plan and organise pre-emtively forcrisis response. Crucial areas forward are enhanced co-operation among stakeholders at national and subregional levels, digitalisation of transport services and climate-proofing transport infrastructure.
Unequal transport connectivity between countries within the sub-region and with other sub-regions
remains a concern that inhibits sustainable freight transport in South and Southwest Asia. One of theconsequences of inadequate transport connectivity within the sub-region is low intra-regional trade
among the countries. The weak transport linkages have not allowed countries to benefit from geographicalproximity. In addition to inappropriate transport infrastructure, including at the borders, complicatedborder crossing formalities makes transit and transport costs high, leading to loss of competitiveness ofthe countries of the sub-region. Most countries do not grant traffic rights and rely on inefficienttransshipment processes at the borders to move the freight.
Enhanced transport connectivity is a fundamental block of strengthening regional co-operation. This cooperation accelerates economic growth and social development. Regions with well-functioning transport
networks reap the benefits of free trade agreements which promotes trade and investment and grows
tourism and knowledge exchange across borders. The Covid-19 recovery policies should not only aim to
improve transport connectivity through further development of cross border rail and road networks but
also to harmonise procedures and advance the digitalisation of processes. Digitalisation and automationof terminals and logistic hubs can bring efficiency gains. Transport infrastructure improvements will lead
to better connectivity and incentivise countries to further increase economic co-operation.
Establish coherent freight reforms for sustainable outcomes

The fractured nature of sustainable freight transport policies in South and Southwest Asia countries
requires a major effort to mainstream practices. Better planning of freight transport and gathering andanalysing of its statistics is crucial and currently lacking in the sub-region. Transport technologies andtransformational transport services can enhance and steer freight sustainability in the direction needed
such as the improved capacity of networks, traffic management, reliability, energy efficiency and better
customer services and lower operating costs. To reduce costs, digital logistics platforms are being
developed that more efficiently share information among various logistics stakeholders, and electronic
cargo tracking systems are now used to facilitate transit transport. Freight information exchange systems
are being developed as aggregators to balance demand and supply and reduce logistical inefficiencies suchas empty runs. However, scaling-up digitisation in transport presents a formidable challenge. There isconsiderable disparity in digital infrastructure, research and innovation, and digital skills among thecountries of the sub-region. Co-operation to harmonise these elements can play an important role inincreasing efficiencies, lowering freight emissions, and making supply chains more reliable and resilient.
The use of rail freight transport requires continual efforts and supportive policies. There are alreadyrenewed attempts to increase the share of rail freight. For example, Indian Railways, the largest in the subregion, has a target to move 45% of the country's freight by 2030, a 1.6 increase over the current 27%.
The pandemic has reaffirmed the reliability and resilience of railway transport and provided a renewed
opportunity to capture larger volumes of sundry freight, which moves mostly by road, as well as to optimisebulk loading to enhance efficiency and productivity.
Sustainable freight transport requires diversified sources of financing, and governments must lead tocreate an enabling environment where it can thrive. Public funding and financing of economic recovery
programmes should prioritise green transport infrastructure. Establishing investment targets can include
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the electrification of rail lines and the production, distribution and supply of alternative fuels. Governments
need to create a coherent framework of economic and regulatory incentives and penalties to aligneconomic objectives with sustainability goals. This could include carbon taxes, zoning restrictions, fuelmandates, and bailouts conditional on decarbonisation actions. Including freight transport emissions incarbon-pricing schemes is a critical instrument that policy makers already have at their disposal to foster
a green transition.

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REFERENCES

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ANNEX A. ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021 MODELLING SCENARIOS: RECOVER, RESHAPE, RESHAPE+

Annex A. ITF Transport Outlook 2021 modellingscenarios: Recover, Reshape, Reshape+
Source: extract from ITF Transport Outlook 2021, (ITF, 2021b, p.55-56)
The Recover, Reshape and Reshape+ scenarios assess the impacts of different policy pathways on global
transport demand, greenhouse gas emissions (reported as CO2 equivalents), local pollutant emissions,accessibility, connectivity and resilience (depending on the sector) up to 2050. The emissions are based ontransport activity and do not include emissions from vehicle production or construction and operation oftransport infrastructure.
The three scenarios represent increasingly ambitious efforts by policy makers to decarbonise the transport
sector while also meeting the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). All scenarios account for the
Covid-19 pandemic by including the same baseline economic assumptions for the pandemic’s impacts.
Uncertainty surrounds its economic fallout, the behavioural shifts it may trigger, and the extent to which
it will affect transport supply and travel patterns both in the long and short term. The ITF models use
middle of the road assumptions that lie somewhere between the most optimistic and most pessimistic
forecasts available at the time of modelling.
For GDP and trade in 2020, the ITF models assume a drop in all world regions, based on the International
Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook June update (IMF, 2020[2]) and the World Trade Organization’s
Trade Statistics and Outlook (WTO, 2020[3]) applied to baseline GDP and trade values from the OECD ENVLinkages model (OECD, 2020[4]). Following years assume the previous country-specific growth rates after2020. This is approximated by a five-year delay in GDP and trade projections compared to pre-Covid-19
levels from 2020. Assumptions of economic activity and trade are held constant between all scenarios tobetter compare the true transport policy impact on activity, CO2 emissions and other outcomes. Air
connectivity growth is also adjusted to account for the severity of the pandemic’s impact on aviation. For
2020, ITF models assume a drop in flight frequencies and pre-Covid-19 growth rates to meet the
projections for 2025 by the International Air Transport Association (IATA, 2020[5]).
In Recover, governments prioritise economic recovery by reinforcing established economic activities. They
continue to pursue existing (or imminent) commitments to decarbonise the transport sector, predating
the pandemic. Alongside these, governments take action with policies that ensure some of the transport
trends that hinder decarbonisation observed during Covid-19 revert back to previous patterns by 2030, asa bare minimum. These include reversing trends in greater private car use and reducing public transport
ridership, for example. Changes in behaviour such as reduced business travel or significant shifts to active
mobility, which have lowered CO2 emissions, also revert to pre-pandemic norms by 2030. These shortterm trends are listed in Chapter 1 (Table 1.1.). Due to limited policy action on technology innovation, cost
reduction in clean energy and transport technologies does not take place to the extent it could. The
Recover scenario is an updated version of the Current Ambition scenario in the ITF Transport Outlook 2019,accounting for Covid-19 related changes and policies announced since.
The Reshape scenario represents a paradigm shift for transport. Governments adopt transformationaltransport decarbonisation policies in the post-pandemic era. These encourage changes in the behaviourof transport users, uptake of cleaner energy and vehicle technologies, digitalisation to improve transport
efficiency, and infrastructure investment to help meet environmental and social development goals. As in

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ANNEX A. ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021 MODELLING SCENARIOS: RECOVER, RESHAPE, RESHAPE+

Recover, the Reshape scenario also assumes that transport trends and patterns observed during the
pandemic revert to previous patterns by 2030.
In Reshape+, governments seize decarbonisation opportunities created by the pandemic, which reinforce
the policy efforts in Reshape. Measures reinforce changes in travel behaviour observed during the
pandemic, such as reducing business travel or encouraging walking and cycling. Some of these policies are
fast-tracked or implemented more forcefully than in Reshape. The scenario assumptions also include
pandemic impacts on non-transport sectors that may nevertheless influence transport, for instance, aregionalisation of trade due to near-sourcing to improve resilience. Under Reshape+, CO2 emission targets
for the transport sector can be achieved sooner and with more certainty and with less reliance on CO2
mitigation technologies whose efficacy is still uncertain.
The Reshape and Reshape+ scenarios show what is possible with technologies and policies available today,
but with increased investments and more political ambition. The policies act additively, meaning that while
there are adjustments made for regions, most policies are applied to most regions with some adjustment
for regional contexts. Results are not prescriptive in assigning certain combinations of measures to specificregions. The results show what is technically feasible under full implementation. Still, it is recognised that
there may be political and financial constraints that require prioritisation of measures depending on local
contexts. The policy scenarios show what may happen at a global and regional level under a set of policies
to manage transport demand, shift to more sustainable modes, and improve the energy efficiency ofvehicles and fuels.
There are many modelling approaches to assess necessary actions for decarbonisation. The ITF models aredemand-based and favour a bottom-up approach which starts with potential policy scenarios andevaluates resulting activity and CO2 emissions. Other useful modelling exercises such as backcasting froma specific goal offers a different set of advantages and drawbacks. Backcasting starts with a goal and works
backwards to see where demand and technologies must be to meet such a goal. The ITF favours thecurrent method over backcasting because it allows for creating the most realistic, and therefore relevant
scenarios. The current lack of data available to determine regional and sectoral goals across the globe
means that selecting a realistic scenario that reflects the unique constraints of every region is not possible.

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ANNEX B. FREIGHT TRANSPORT SCENARIO SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021

Annex B. Freight transport scenario specifications
from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021
The below table is an extract from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021. Shading denotes policies with stronger
implementation in Reshape+
Measure/ Exogenous factor

Description

Recover

ReshapeReshape+

Charges introduced in
2030 growing to 1 centper tonne-kilometre by
2050.
Port fees grow anadditional 1% by 2050
decreasing the carbon
intensity of shipping by
0.5%.

Charges introduced
in 2030 growing to
2.5 cents per tonnekilometre by 2050.
Port fees grow anadditional 20% by
2050 decreasing thecarbon intensity ofshipping by 10%.

Charges introduced in
2025 growing to
6 cents per tonnekilometre by 2050.
Port fees grow anadditional 30% by
2050 decreasing thecarbon intensity ofshipping by 15%.

Carbon pricing varies
across regions:
USD 150- 250 per tonneof CO2 in 2050.

Carbon pricing varies across regions:
USD 300-500 per tonne of CO2 in 2050.

Economic Instruments
Distance charges

Distance based charges
for road freight.

Port fees

Differentiated port fees
depending on
environmental
performance of vessels,
i.e. ships with no clean
technologies have higher
port fees.
Pricing of carbon-based
fuels based on theemissions they produce.

Carbon pricing

Enhancement of infrastructure
Rail and inland waterways
improvements

Increase in attractivenessof intermodal solutions,
namely trips with a rail or
inland waterway
component.

Transport network improvement
plans

Construction and upgradeof new infrastructure, e.g.
new roads, railways or
port expansion.
Includes a range ofsolutions to achieve zero
emissions for long haul
heavy duty road vehicles,
including: Electric Roads(ERS), hydrogen fuelcells, advanced batteries,
or low carbon fuels (formore check (ITF, 2019[1]))Energy transition for long-haul
heavy-duty road freight vehicles

58

The penalty for modetransfers at intermodal
terminals is decreased
and alternative specificconstant of rail and inland
waterways increases. The
rate of change varies by
world region, e.g. inWestern Europe it grows
from 2% in 2020 to 20%
in 2050.

The penalty for mode The penalty for modetransfers at
transfers at intermodal
intermodal terminals
terminals is decreased
is decreased andand alternative specificalternative specificconstant of rail andconstant of rail andinland waterways
inland waterways
increases. The rate ofincreases. The ratechange varies by worldof change varies byregion, e.g. in Westernworld region, e.g. in
Europe it grows from
Western Europe it
10% in 2020 to 80% ingrows from 4% in
2050.
2020 to 40% in 2050.
The transport network is updated with planned new infrastructure andupgrades (e.g. increases in port capacity, developments in Central Asia, TENT European projects) expected to become operational between 2020 and
2050.
Very low, marginal
14% of heavy trucks
37% of heavy trucks
tkm are on thesetkm are on these
implementation
systems by 2050.
systems by 2050.
Costs begin higher
Costs begin higher
than conventional
than conventional fuels
fuels but by 2050
but by 2050 become
become lower.
lower. Differences in
Differences in
uptakes and costs by
uptakes and costs by regions.
regions.

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ANNEX B. FREIGHT TRANSPORT SCENARIO SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021

Measure/ Exogenous factor

Description

Recover

ReshapeReshape+

4% Increase inaverage loads ofroad freight by 2020
growing to 10% in
2050.

Less than 4% Increasein average loads ofroad freight in 2020
growing to 20% in
2050. Accelerated
increase between
2020 and 2030.

Decrease in the
speed of road andmaritime transport is
1% in 2020, growing
to a 20% decreaseby 2050.
Carbon intensity per tkm of ICE trucks reduces byless than 1% in 2020 up to 10% by 2020.

Decrease in the speedof Road and Maritime
modes by more than
1% in 2020, growing toa 33% decrease by
2050.
Carbon intensity per
tkm of ICE trucks
reduces by 2% in 2020
up to 15% by 2020.
Increases in low
emission fuels vehicle
shares vary by worldregion, in faster
adoption regions (e.g.
Western Europe) there
is an increase of 4%
by 2025, growing to
30% by 2050.

Operations management
Asset sharing and the PhysicalInternet

Sharing assets (e.g.
vehicles or warehouses)
to make resource
management for logistics
activities more efficient.

Less than 1% Increase inaverage loads of roadfreight by 2020 growing to
2% in 2050.

Slow steaming and speed
reduction for maritime and trucks

Reduction of the average
speed of ships or trucks to
reduce emissions.

Fuel economy standards forinternal combustion engine (ICE)vehicles and fuel

Increase in fuel efficiency
of ICE road freightvehicles.

Low emission fuel incentives(including electric vehicles) andinvestment in distribution/supply
infrastructure

Increases the share of low
emission vehicles km(e.g. electric, hydrogen,clean biofuels, biogas) incommercial vehicle fleets,
lowering the averagecarbon intensity of roadfreight.

Increases in low emission
fuels vehicle shares vary
by world-region, in faster
adoption regions (e.g.
Western Europe) there isan increase of 1% by
2025, growing to 10% by
2050.

Heavy Capacity Vehicles (HCV)Road vehicles thatexceed the general weightand dimension limitations
set by national
regulations. Truck loads
increase 50% and costs
fall 20% per tonnekilometre where HCVs are
adopted.

By 2050 2% of non-urban
road freight transport
activity (tkm) is done withhigh capacity vehicles.

Autonomous Vehicles and
Platooning

Simulates the adoption ofautonomous trucks(platooning and fullautonomy) in road freight.
The adoption of thistechnology reduces costs
for road freight, but also
its CO2 intensity, on theother hand it can induce
demand and reverse
modal shift.
Electric/alternative fuelvehicle penetration andincreases in efficiency for
all transport modes(including average loads
and vehicle capacity).

Regulatory instruments
Decrease in the speed ofroad and maritime
transport is less than 1%
in 2020, growing to a 10%
decrease by 2050.

Increases in low
emission fuelsvehicle shares vary
by world-region, in
faster adoption
regions (e.g. Western
Europe) there is anincrease of 2.6% by2025, growing to
20% by 2050.
By 2050 5% of nonurban road freighttransport activity(tkm) is done withhigh capacity
vehicles.

By 2050 10% of nonurban road freighttransport activity (tkm)
is done with highcapacity vehicles.

Stimulation of innovation and development

Electric/alternative fuel vehicle
penetration and increases in
efficiency for all transport modes

Adoption varies by sector(urban and non-Urban)
and world-region. Very
low to marginal adoption
in this scenario.

Follows the IEA STEPSScenario.

ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK © OECD/ITF 2022

Up to 45% uptake on
Up to 90% uptake on
non-urban in some
non-urban in someregions by 2050
regions by 2050
(Europe, North(Europe, North
America, China,
America, China, Japan
Japan and Southand South Korea).
Korea). Uptake on
Uptake on urban
urban freight is lower. freight is lower.
Decrease of 14% on
Decrease of 14% on
carbon intensity andcarbon intensity and
45% on costs.
45% on costs.
Follows the IEA SDS Scenario.

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ANNEX B. FREIGHT TRANSPORT SCENARIO SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021

Measure/ Exogenous factor

Description

Recover

ReshapeReshape+Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)
and eco-driving

Development of ITS toprovide better quality,
real-time, automatic datacollection and processing
to improve fleet
management, routing andassist driving.

Implemented with
regional variations, inregions with faster
deployment (e.g. Western
Europe) reductions of 4%
in carbon intensity in 2020and close to zero in 2050.

Implemented with
regional variations, inregions with faster
deployment (e.g.
Western Europe)
reductions of 10% in
carbon intensity in2020 and 1% in
2050.

Implemented with
regional variations, inregions with faster
deployment (e.g.
Western Europe)
reductions of 15% incarbon intensity in2020 and close to 2%
in 2050.

Exogenous factors
3D Printing

Decarbonisation of energy

Trade regionalisation

E-commerce

Enables manufacturingcloser to the point ofconsumption, leading todrop in long distance
trade for several
commodities compared toestimated values, namely
manufactured goods.
Decreases in trade andconsumption of oil andcoal as societies
decarbonise, directly
impacting freight transportdemand for fossil fuels.

Negligible impact on
trade.

International trade shrinks 10% by 2050. Values
differ by commodities, electronic andmanufactured goods have higher falls.

Oil and Coal grow lessthan other commodities(following ENV-Linkages
model (ENV-OECD),(Château, Dellink andLanzi, 2014)

Yearly decrease of
3.35% for coal and
2.1% for oil. By 2050
coal trade has
reduced 65% and oil
close to 50%,
compared to 2020
estimates.

Simulates increased tradeexchanges within regions
or trade blocks, while
decreasing longer
distance trade between
regions.
Simulates the impact ofgrowth in e-commerceand home deliveries.
Increases the estimateddemand of goods overtime in addition to theprojected values.

No additional fees compared to baseline.

Yearly decrease of
10% for coal and 2.1%
for oil. By 2050 coaltrade has reduced by
96% being almost
phased-out globallyand there is close to a
50% decrease in oil
consumption
compared to 2020
estimates.
5% increase in penalty
fees for intra-regional
trade.

Urban freight with an additional 5% demand increase by 2050, smaller
impacts on non-urban freight.

Note: There is an overlap between the “Energy transition for long-haul heavy-duty road freight vehicles”, “Lowemission fuel incentives (including electric vehicles) and investment in distribution/supply infrastructure” and“Electric/alternative fuel vehicle penetration” measures. But they apply differently to different regions of the worldand vehicle types, the adoption rate implemented in the scenario matches the highest value between this threemeasures for each world region and vehicle type/operation.
Source: ITF (2021, p.184-186)

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ANNEX C. URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT SCENARIO SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021

Annex C. Urban passenger transport scenario
specifications from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021
The below table is an extract from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021. Shading denotes policies with stronger
implementation in Reshape+
Measure/Exogenous factor

Description

Recover

ReshapeReshape+Economic instruments
Carbon pricing
Road pricing

Pricing of carbon-based fuels
based on the emissions they
produce.
Charges applied to motorised
vehicles for the use of roadinfrastructure.

Parking pricing and restrictions

Regulations to control theavailability and price of parking
spaces for motorised vehicles.

Land-use planning

Densification of cities.

Transit-Oriented Development(TOD)

Increase in mixed-use
development in neighbourhoods
around public transport hubs.

Public transport priority
measures and express lanes
Public transport service
improvements

Prioritising circulation of public
transport vehicles in traffic
through signal priority or express
lanes.
Improvements to public transport
service frequency and capacity.

Public transport infrastructure
improvements

Improvements to public transport
network density and size.

Carbon pricing varies acrossregions: USD 150-250 per
tonne of CO2 in 2050
0% to 7.5% increase of nonenergy related car use costs
by 2050, half formotorcycles.
5% to 50% of a city area
subject to parking
constraints, and 0% to 60%
increase in parking prices by
2050.

Carbon pricing varies across regions:
USD 300-500 per tonne of CO2 in 2050
2.5% to 25% increase of non-energy related
car use costs by 2050, half for motorcycles.
7% to 75% of a city area subject to parking
constraints and 20% to 150% increase inparking prices by 2050.

Enhancement of Infrastructure
Density variation of -10% to+20% for the city centre ofurban areas over 300 000
inhabitants. Density
variation of -10% to +10%
for cities under 300 000
inhabitants and for suburbsof urban areas over 300 000
inhabitants.
Increases the land-use
diversity mix and increases
the accessibility to public
transit by 5% by 2050.
0% to 40% of bus, light railtransit and bus rapid transit
network prioritised by 2050.
-10% to +10% service
improvement for rail or
corridor based public
transport systems resulting
in a -1% to +1% speed
variation by 2050. 10% to
30% service improvement
for bus and paratransit
transport systems resulting
in a 0.25% to 0.7% speed
variation by 2050.
0% to 100% growthincrease for the public
transport network by 2050.

ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK © OECD/ITF 2022

Density variation of 0% to +40% for the city
centre of urban areas over 300 000
inhabitants. Density variation of 0% to +20%
for cities under 300 000 inhabitants and for
suburbs of urban areas over 300 000
inhabitants.

Increases the land-use
diversity mix andincreases theaccessibility to public
transit by 7.5% by 2050.

Increases theland-use diversity
mix and increases
the accessibility to
public transit by
10% by 2050.
10% to 60% of surface public transport
network prioritised by 2050.
10% to 15% service improvement for rail or
corridor based public transport systems
resulting in a 1% to 1.5% speed variation by
2050. 20% to 50% service improvement forbus and informal public transport systems
resulting in a 0.5% to 1.25% speed variation
by 2050.

0% to 200% growth increase for the public
transport network by 2050.

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ANNEX C. URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT SCENARIO SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021

Measure/Exogenous factor

Description

Recover

Integrated public transport
ticketingIntegration of public transport
ticketing systems.

1.5% to 4.5% reduction of apublic transport ticket cost,and 2.5% to 7.5% reductionof public transport monthly
subscription cost by 2050.
20% to 300% increase inroad space available toactive modes by 2050 and asimultaneous increase in the
speed of active modes,
including micromobility

Bike and Pedestrian
infrastructure improvements

Increase in dedicatedinfrastructure for active mobility.

Speed limitations

Traffic calming measure to
reduce speed and dominance of
motor vehicles through lowspeed zones or infrastructure.

Urban vehicle restriction
schemeCar restriction policies in certain
areas and during certain times tolimit congestion. Typicallyapplied in the city centre.

Low-emission vehicles
incentives and infrastructure
investment

Financial incentives for thepurchase and use of alternativefuel vehicles and investment incharging infrastructure.

Electric/alternative fuel vehicle
penetration

Degree of uptake ofelectric/alternative vehicles in an
urban vehicle fleet
Incentives to encourage car
rental schemes where members
have access to a pool of cars asneeded, lowering car ownership

2% to 30% reduction of
speed on main roads, by
2050

ReshapeReshape+

1.5% to 7.5% reduction of a public transport
ticket cost, and 2.5% to 12.5% of public
transport monthly subscription cost by 2050.
40% to 500% increasein road space available
to active modes by
2050 and asimultaneous increasein the speed of activemodes, including
micromobility.

50% to 600%
increase in road
space available toactive modes by
2050 and asimultaneous
increase in the
speed of activemodes, including
micromobility.
5% to 50% reduction of speed on main roads,
by 2050

Regulatory instruments
0% to 17.5% reduction of
car ownership by 2050,
Reduction of the car andcarsharing speeds while
increasing the car andmotorcycle access time.
Decreases average vehiclekilometres made with diesel,
gasoline and methane fuels
between 0% and 4% by
2050.

3.5% to 25% reduction of car ownership by2050, Reduction of the car and carsharing
speeds while increasing the car andmotorcycle access time.
Decreases averagevehicle-kilometres madewith diesel, gasoline
and methane fuels
between 0% and 36%
by 2050.

Decreases
average vehiclekilometres madewith diesel,
gasoline andmethane fuels
between 0% and
45% by 2050.

Stimulation of innovation and development

Carsharing incentives

Carpooling policies

Ridesharing/shared mobility

62

Carpooling policies encourage
consolidating private vehicle trips
with similar origins anddestinations.
Increased ridership in non-urban
road transport (car and bus)

Follows the IEA STEPSScenario

Follows the IEA SDS Scenario

0% to 15% increase inshared car availability percapita, and 0% to 40%
increase in sharedmotorcycle availability percapita, by 2050.
3.5% to 8.3% increase inaverage load factor by 2050.

5% to 30% increase in shared car availability
per capita, and 10% to 60% increase in sharedmotorcycle availability per capita, by 2050.

25% to 200% increase ofridesharing vehicles per
capita growth by 2050. Loadfactor evolution from -50%
to +25% by 2050.

25% to 300% increase of ridesharing vehicles
per capita growth by 2050. Load factor
increase from 0% to 100% by 2050.

7.6% to 16.7% increase in average load factor
by 2050.

ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK © OECD/ITF 2022

ANNEX C. URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT SCENARIO SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021

Measure/Exogenous factor

Description

Recover

Mobility as a Service (MaaS)and multimodal travel services

Improved integration between
public transport and sharedmobility (app integration, as well
as physical infrastructure,ticketing and schedule
integration). Increase inavailability and load factors ofshared mobility

1.7% to 10% reduction of apublic transport ticket cost,and 1.0% to 6.0% reductionof shared mobility cost by
2050. Increase in thenumber of shared mobility
vehicles and stations

Autonomous vehicles*

Introduction of vehicles with level
5 autonomous capabilities
Reduces business andcommuting trips, while
increasing short non-work trips.

ReshapeReshape+

3.3% to 20% reduction of a public transport
ticket cost, and 2.0% to 12.0% reduction ofshared mobility cost by 2050. Significant
increase in the number of shared mobility
vehicles and stations

Exogenous factors

Teleworking

The percentage of autonomous vehicles in use varies across regions:for car 0% to 3%, for bus 0% to 1.5%, for shared vehicles 0% to 6%.
2.5% to 20% of the active
3.5% to 30% of the
5% to 40% of the
population could telework by active population could
active population
could telework by
2050.
telework by 2050.
2050.

Note: Range of values reflect the varying degrees of implementation of policy measures across the different world
regions in each scenario. Unless otherwise specified, a % change indicates an alteration of a certain variable in agiven year compared to the absence of a policy. For example, PT ticket costs are endogenously calculated for eachcity and year by the model, indexed to GDP, assuming no policy action. An X% decrease would be applied to theticket price of the specific city and year.*Autonomous vehicles are considered but are not a primary factor in anyof the scenarios. All scenarios assume a constant level of introduction of vehicles with Level 5 autonomy. The ITF
Transport Outlook 2019 focussed more specifically on transport disruptions, including autonomous vehicles, andassessed related scenarios.
Source: extract from ITF (2021) Transport Outlook 2021, Table 3.3, p. 93-95

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63

ANNEX D. NON-URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT SCENARIO SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021

Annex D. Non-urban passenger transport scenario
specifications from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021
The below table is an extract from the ITF Transport Outlook 2021. Shading denotes policies with stronger
implementation in Reshape+
Measure/Exogenous factor

Description

Recover

ReshapeReshape+Economic instruments
Ticket taxes (air travel)

Percentage tax appliedon the cost of airfare

Carbon pricing

Charges applied on
tailpipe CO2 emissions

Development of ultra-high-speed
rail

Introduction of new ultrahigh-speed rail routes,
such as Maglev
Investments in existingrail infrastructures
leading to frequency andspeed increases

Ticket taxes varyacross regions: 3-15%
in 2050
Carbon pricing varies
across regions:
USD 150-250 per
tonne of CO2 in 2050

Ticket taxes vary across regions: 8-30% in 2050
Carbon pricing varies across regions: USD 300-500
per tonne of CO2 in 2050

Enhancement of infrastructure

Improvements in rail infrastructure

No development of
new ultra-high-speed
rail
Frequency increases
by 50% (year of
improvement varies
across regions)

Development of Maglev routes where economicallyfeasible
Frequency (50%)
and speed (20%)
improvements
across regions

Earlier frequency (50%) andspeed (20%) improvements
across regions

Regulatory instruments
Synthetic fuels (aviation)

Mandates in aviation forsustainable aviation fuels (SAF)

Decrease of synthetic
aviation fuel cost relative
to conventional fuel as aresult of technologicaldevelopments
SAF should constitute a
minimum percentage of
total fuel used

Synthetic fuels cost is
3.3 times more
expensive thanconventional fuelSynthetic fuels cost is three times more expensive
than conventional fuelMinimum SAF
percentage varies
across regions 5-10%
in 2050

Minimum SAF
percentage varies
across regions
10-25% in 2050

Minimum SAF percentage
varies across regions
15-30% in 2050

Operational instruments
Optimise aircraft movements

Flights are closer aligned
to greater circle paths

Electric/alternative fuel vehicle
penetration

Increased penetration ofelectric vehicles in nonurban road transport due
to financial incentives forthe purchase and use ofalternative fuel vehicles
and investment incharging infrastructure.

Deviations are
reduced by 50% in
2030

Deviations are reduced by 50% in 2020

Simulation of innovation and development

64

Follows the IEASTEPS Scenario

Follows the IEASDS Scenario

Increased penetration on top
of IEAs SDS Scenario

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ANNEX D. NON-URBAN PASSENGER TRANSPORT SCENARIO SPECIFICATIONS FROM THE ITF TRANSPORT OUTLOOK 2021

Description

RecoverHybrid-electric planes

Measure/Exogenous factor

Development of new
hybrid-electric aircraft.

Hybrid-electric aircraft are available from the year
2030.
They provide 7.5-10% of the total energy requiredreaching up to 30-40% in 2050 depending on theregion.

Ridesharing/shared mobility

Increased ridership in
non-urban road transport(car and bus)

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) andmultimodal travel services

Improved integration
between different
transport modes.
Integration of ticketingand increase ofintermodal
terminals/stations
Development of allelectric aircraftHybrid-electric aircraft
are available from theyear 2030.
They provide 5-7.5%of total energy
required reaching up
to 20-30% in 2050
depending on theregion.
The percentage ofshared trips of total
trips by car equals
6.7%
Switching between
different modes istwice as penalising as
between the samemode
Flying range of allelectric planes
increases by 2050 up
to 1 000 km
Cost of all-electric
aviation is 1.5 times
that of conventional
aircraft

Flying range of all-electric planes increases by 2050
up to 1 500 km
Cost of all-electric aviation is 1.2 times that ofconventional aircraft

Improvement in range and cost of
all-electric planes

ReshapeReshape+

The percentage of shared trips of total trips by car
varies across regions
13.3% – 20.0%
Switching between different mode is no more
penalising than between the same mode

Exogenous factors
Autonomous vehicles*

Reduction in long-distance leisuretourism

Reduction in business travel due toteleconferencing

Reduced propensity to fly

Introduction of vehicles with level 5 autonomous capabilities
The percentage of autonomous vehicles in use varies across regions:for car 0-2.5%, for bus 0-1.25%
Reduced tendency to
none
none
Long distance trips aretake long-distance leisurereduced by 15% to 22%
trips as a consequence of(compared to demand
without this factor) between
Covid-19 pandemic
2020 and 2030. The impact
reduces linearly reaching 0%
in 2050.
Replacement of business none
none
Air trips are reduced bytrips with
12.5% (compared to demand
teleconferencing as awithout this factor) between
consequence of Covid-19
2020 and 2030. The impact
reduces linearly reaching apandemic
2.5% reduction in 2050.
Segments of the
10-15% fewer people
5-30% fewer people fly in most regions in 2050
population avoid flying
fly in some regions indue to climate
2050
considerations

Note: Range of values reflect the varying degrees of implementation of policy measures across the different world
regions in each scenario.
*Autonomous vehicles are considered but are not a primary factor in any of the scenarios. All scenarios assume aconstant level of introduction of vehicles with Level 5 autonomy. The ITF Transport Outlook 2019 focussed more
specifically on transport disruptions, including autonomous vehicles, and assessed related scenarios
Source: extract from ITF (2021) Transport Outlook 2021, Table 4.3, p.142-144

ITF SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ASIA TRANSPORT OUTLOOK © OECD/ITF 2022

65

ITF South and Southwest Asia
Transport Outlook

Published: 06/2022 | Photo credit: Ana Cuzovic

This report provides scenarios for future transport demand and CO2
emissions in South and Southwest Asia up to 2050 to help
decision-makers chart pathways to sustainable, resilient transport.
The scenarios reflect existing policy initiatives and specificconstraints in the region. They also examine the potential impact
of policies addressing the challenges and opportunities fortransport from Covid-19.

International Transport Forum
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contact@itf-oecd.org
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