EV・PHV Town Symposium- in Goto NagasakiKeynote Speech
EV・PHV Town from Local Community(2013.2.7)
Keio University
Emeritus Professor
Hironao Kawashima

1. Introduction
2. Background of the Introduction of EV・PHV
3. Agenda21
4. Assessment from Auto-mobile Industry
5. μ-Mobility Vehicle
6. Recent Technical Developments
7. Socio Economic impact of 3.11
8. Issues emerged after 3.11
9. Roles of Local Community
10. Roles of Central Government

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11. IntroductionMore than 5 years has passed since the EV/PHV
deployment projects started
In this keynote speech several challenges are pointed out
based on;Recent developments of related technologies
Recent diversifications in socio-economical situation(Especially the occurrence of Great East Japan Earth Quake)

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22. Background of the Introduction of EV・PHV
a. Environmental Measures of Automobiles(1970～1990）
Reduction of Pollution (fuel-efficiency was not the main concern）→→

Introduction of E was not discussed
Recently, the exhaust gas of new cars is cleaner that the intake air tothe engine

Environmental agencies were established in most of the countriesin 1970s

b. Emergence of the concept called Sustainable
Development (1970～）
1.

Club of Rome “Limits to Growth”(1972)
Computer simulation was introduced

2.

Brundtland Commission Report “Our Common Future”(1987)
The concept of sustainability has been established3.

“Earth Summit” in Rio de Janeiro (1992)
Organized by UNCED. The discussion was based on the report from IPCC
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3The assertion of IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change)
IPCC was founded in 1988 and the assertion of IPCC wasadopted in the report of UNCED (United Nations Conferenceon Environment and Development) in the following form;“To stabilize the Greenhouse gas concentration at
the level which dangerous anthropogenic impact
will not occur to the climate system”
Emission of Greenhouse gas is the consequenceof human activity i.e. burning coal, petroleum,
natural gas and lumber forests.

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[gCO2 equivalents/vehicle km]

CO2 Emission of Automobile Engine

2000

2010

乗用車に関する従来技術と2010年頃の代替技術のエネルギー・チェイン比較：CO2 等価換算
（都市内・郊外を含む標準走行パターンを想定，エネルギー・チェインはWell-to-wheelを想定
出典 Holden, E. “Achieving Sustainable Mobility”, 2007
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5Decoupling the Environmental Impacts of Transport fromEconomic Growth
CO2 and NOX emission from road transport and GDP growth in the EU
NOXfrom road transport

道路交通から排出されるCO2

出典：OECD (2006)
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63. Agenda21
153 countries signed the UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change and Agenda21 was issued.
Agenda 21 is a guideline for the activities in nationaland international levels to attain sustainable
development.
Whilst national and supra-national governments clearly
have a central role in the pursuit of sustainable
development, it is equally clear that local government
plays a crucial part. (LocalAgenda21, Chapter 28 ofAgenda21)

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The paradigm of sustainable development• The definition of sustainable development is vague
and typical examples and comment are;– Development that meets the needs of current generations
without compromising the ability of future generations omeet their needs and aspirations.
(Brundtland Commission Report, 1987)– Development that improves the quality of human life whileliving within the carrying capacity of supporting ecosystems(International Union for the Conservation of Nature, 1991)– All in all, climate change must be regarded as marketfailure on the greatest the world has seen.
(The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change,
2007)
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8Local Agenda21
Because so many of the problems and solutions being
addressed by Agenda21 have their roots in local activities, theparticipation and co-operation of local authorities will be adetermining factor in fulfilling its objectives. Local authorities
construct, operate and maintain economic, social andenvironmental infrastructure, oversea planning processes,
establish local environmental policies and regulations, andassist in implementing national and sub-nationalenvironmental policies. As the level of governance closest topeople, they play a vital role in educating, mobilizing andresponding to the public to promote sustainable development

To think globally, act locally
EV・PHV Town Symposium9• Definition of Sustainable Development by the local
government (Bell, S. & Morse, S. “Sustainable Indicators”, Earthscan,2008, p. 79)– Sustainability may be defined as a dynamic balanceamong three mutually interdependent elements;
1. Protection and enhancement of natural ecosystems andresources
2. Economic productivity
3. Provision of social infrastructure such as jobs, housing,education, medical care and cultural opportunities• But, does it require the paradigm of sustainability as
an umbrella? Politicians have been promising theselong before sustainability became such a dominantparadigm.
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10Kyoto Protocol
International role based on the framework convention
concerning the reduction of greenhouse gases establishedin 1997. Japan signed to reduce 6% from the 1990 levelfrom 2008 to 2012.
Common but different responsibilities among developedand developing countries.
One of the resolution of UN Conference on SustainableDevelopment (Rio+20, June 2012) states that “Themeasures conducted by nations to enhance the socialwelfare is a sustainable development”.
New framework convention after 2020 is under-discussion
from 2013 to 2020.
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114. Assessment from Auto-mobile Industry•••

WBCSD (World Business Council of Sustainable Development) is acoalition of 170 international companies from more than 35 countries
and 30 major industrial sectors, united by a shared commitment tosustainable development via the three pillars of economic growth,
ecological balance and social progress.
Publised in 2004, the final report of the Sustainable Mobility Project
titled “Mobility 2030; Meeting the challenges to sustainability”.
Most of the discussion is about to promote land use and public
transport to reduce the opportunities to use cars and the penetration ofEV is not discussed.

After the Kyoto Protocol, hybrid car and EV received
high expectations from the society and thepenetration of hybrid car and EV began from 1998
and 2009, respectively.
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12Sustainable Mobility Projectのメンバー

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5. μｰMobility Vehicle
In 2009, the project called “Governors coalition on thedevelopment of the vehicle friendly to elder generation” started
with the governors of 35 local governments. The proposed
concept is the following

1. Vehicle with the limited speed（40Km/h-60Km/h, not allowed to use expressways）

2. Vehicle for two people
3. Installation of driving assist system forsecuring safety
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Distribution of travel distances per month

WEBを利用したアンケート調査 N=1008, 2007年実施
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Mean Number (person/trip)

Number of people traveled by a vehicle

Year
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6. Recent Technical DevelopmentsA) Efficient use of electricity –Smartgrid
EV, PHV are the elements of HEMS, CEMS
B) Penetration of fuel efficient internal combustion
engines
Diesel hybrid cars are welcomed by costsensitive users
C) Utilization of the new excavation technology of thenon conventional gases
Energy revolution by the shale gas
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17A.1 Example in German

Source: ITS WC 2012 in Vienna, SIS27
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A.2 Example in Japan

Source: ITS WC 2012 in Vienna, SIS27
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19A.3 Example in Finland

Source: ITS WC 2012 in Vienna, SIS32
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Source: ITS WC 2012 in Vienna, SIS32
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21A.4 Co-Mobility Society Project of Keio UniversityKeio University launched a research project aimed forenhancing the mobility of elder generation in local area.
1. R & D of one man automated vehicle
2. R & D of remote medi-care system andconduct field trial
3. R & D of HEMS，CEMS and conduct field trial
Currently a similar project (including above mentioned
themes 2,3 and agriculture) using sensor networks as a coreof technology called “Green Life Infrastructure” is underdevelopment.

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22Concept of the Co-Mobility Society

Safe, secure.
Low environmental & energy load.
Enhanced social activities.

Ordesr fromthe“Shopping Mall.”Children using
remote control.

Delivery by automatic
vehicle from the “Shopping Mall.”

Propose creating a socialand technological platform.

Ease of movement.
Easier for people to gather.

Announce the vision andmethodologies worldwide.
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Co-Mobility Vehicle –Recent Prototype

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24Micro-grid of Co-Mobility SystemEMS

Solar system
Power company

Storage Cell

Private House

Solar system
Storage Cell

Air conditioner
Hot-water supplysystem

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Communityspace

Air conditioner
Hot-water supplysystem

Solar system

Open space25

Three kinds of Mobility in Co-Mobility Society• Automated Mobility• Remote Controlled Mobility• Virtual Mobility (Not Virtual Space)
Similar or better benefits to patients by the remote
medi-care system which does not require frequent
visits to the hospital.

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A.5 EV & ITS Project in Nagasaki
In conjunction with the introduction of EV in GotoIslands, the following policy was determined to promote
activation of the local society.
1. Integrated and efficient implementation of electric
supply stations and ITS Spots is conducted.
2. Route guidance to the electric supply station isprovided by using ITS Spots
3. Tourism guidance is provided by using ITS Spots
4. Contents of the tourism guidance is provided bylocal community
5. CEMS and HEMS are investigated to realize “GreenIsland”
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27A.6 Example of EU Project

Source: ITS WC 2012 in Vienna, SIS49
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Source: ITS WC 2012 in Vienna, SIS49
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Source: ITS WC 2012 in Vienna, SIS49
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30A.7 EV Field Trial in UK

Source: ITS WC 2012 in Vienna, TS52
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CYC= Public Charging Infrastructure
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Source: ITS WC 2012 in Vienna, TS52

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Source: ITS WC 2012 in Vienna, TS52
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B.1 Vehicle weight and fuel consumption

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B.2 Trial of the automated vehicle

Source: International Task Force on Vehicle-Highway Automation Workshop, 21 October, 2012
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Source: International Task Force on Vehicle-Highway Automation Workshop, 21 October, 2012
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36C.1 Comparison of WTW CO2 emissions
CO2eq in g/km
Well to Tank
（Batteries)

Tank (Batteries)
to Wheels

Total CO2eq
Emissions

23120

143

Biofuels

17-28

97-135

114-163

Battery Electric Vehicle
27% Nuclear
20% Renewable
53% Fossils(EU-27 mix 2010)

67-84

067-84

Battery Electric Vehicle(Coal)

126-1550126-155

Battery Electric Vehicle
50% Wind
50% Photo Voltaic(Renewables)

0-400-4

Conventional ICE Car

Source: European Roadmap, Electrification of Road Transport, 2nd Edition, PPP European Green Cars Initiative, June 2012, Table 3
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37C.2 Fuel for Electricity (2009)
Unit GWH
renewableenergyU.S.A.

China

EUJapan

Hydro
Nuclear Energy
Petroleum
Natural Gas

Coal

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Source: IHS CERA

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C.3 The new excavation technology

出典：JOGMEC調査レポート
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39C.4 Energy revolution and geopolitics

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7. Socio Economic impacts of 3.11
1. The basic assumption of promoting clean vehicles
by EV is that 50% of electricity will be generated
by nuclear plants.
2. Loss of electric power and break down of variouscommunication systems.
3. Can the prevention and the mitigation of disasterand environment prevention compatible with thesustainable development ?

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41Damage to Fixed Lines, Mobile Base Stations
Mobile Communications

Fixed-line Communications■ In total, around 1.9 million communicationlines were damaged.

■ In total, about 29,000 base stations
were damaged.

Max. no. of damaged lines

Max. no. of damaged base stations
15000～～[Unit: fixed-linephones
10,000Lines]

FTTH

fixed-line FTTH
phones ＋ADSL

fixed-linephones[basestations]

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42Locations of Damage to Mobile Networks
Base stations
collapsed or backup
batteries ran out
NTT central office(housing building)

NTT central office,customer building, etc.
(relay building)

Backup generators
ran out of fuelbecause of longpower outages

Transmission line
relay station

Area A

Basestation

RNC

Communication cable

Trunkexchange

Cables cut off orduct destroyed

Area B

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出典：平成20年岩手・宮城内陸地震「栗原の記憶」
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44Sharp decrease of Gas Stations

Source: Journal of Nikkei, 24 December, 2012
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8. Issues emerged after 3.11
Technical issues related to EV・PHV after 3.11
 Depending on the energy mix policy of Japan, EV is nolonger cleanest vehicle EV and PHV can be utilized to secure electric power
and means of communication after disasters
 General issues of the penetration of EV• Difficulty to supply electricity to EV during the peak
hours of electric demands (EV requires electricity
equivalent to the demands of two houses for 24hours)• Difficulty to construct the information to guide EV ofvarious manufacturers to electric supply stations• Safety of Lithium-ion battery
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Development of Resilient Society
Urgent Action for the
Local Government
Public Network
Disaster Mitigation
Planning
Priority
communication
at emergency

Development of Social
Capital of community

High Priority Communication
at emergency
EV

Local Government Network
Local Government
Data Network

Multimedia Broad Casting

Smart-phone
Car Navigation System

Micro GridCEMSPowerCompanySolarWindHydro

CEMS：Cluster Energy
Management System

Source: Material of Co-Mobility Society Research Center, Keio University

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Electric Management System for Local Community for population of 5 to 10 X 104

CloudyFair
Hydro Powergeneration

Wind Powergeneration

Introduction of Micro
Grid Systems

Power Supply by EV

Alternative means totransport and reserve
electric power

Source: The report of “Integrated Resercb and Survey Team on Disaster Mitigation Measures using ICT”, 13 July, 2011
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48Issues related to the development of EV・PHV Town
Integrated approach of the local community is inevitable（Since Agenda21 was a top-down approach to members states, the bottomup approach such as Local Agenda21 did not bring out enough attention toJapan)

1. Resolve the problem of mobility issues• Sharp decrease of petroleum stations• Support the life of elder generation who do nothave driving license
2. Activation of Local Community• Utilization to tourisms• Develop applications in other fields of local
community such as agriculture
3. Utilization of EV・PHV after disasters
4. R & D of ICT for supporting the above mentioned
themes 1-3.
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9. Roles of Local Community
EV, μ-Mobility are not the alternatives of current
automobiles. They are new means of mobility for specificmobility purpose
1. Determine a suitable unit of EV・PHV Town
If the tourism is the main concern of the community, informationexchange among local communities who have similar interest isinevitable.
2. Increase job opportunity by implementing integrated plan for the
penetration of EV・PHV and μ-Mobility and for the enhancement ofassociated business such as tourisms, maintenance of vehicles.
Not only to possess vehicles but also to share the use of vehicles.
3. Consider the financial aspect of introduction EV・PHV Town
• What kind of mechanism is needed for financing theadministrative and the management cost?
• What is the business plan for the introduction ?
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5010. Roles of Central Government
1. Establishment of technical framework, guidelines standards
related to vehicle, sensor network. Especially, thestandardization of classics platform and the modulization ofdriver assist safety systems of μ-Mobility are urgently needed
2. Establishment of technical framework for electric power supply
and communication systems which can be utilized for every day
use and emergency use such as after disasters
3. Japan should lead the discussions of post Kyoto Protocol ofUnited Nations in conjunction with the relationship between
disaster management and mitigation and sustainable
developments and how local communities should prepare forthe future occurrence of disasters which are intrinsically local
phenomina

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51Can traditional Disaster Prevention coexist with Sustainability ?
Induced CO2 of Ceramic and Cement Products calculated from I/O Analysis

CementEV・PHVタウンシンポジウムSource: Keio University, 2001

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Induced CO2 of Iron Products calculated from I/O Analysis

Pig iron

Source: Keio University, 2001
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53Comparison with the Transport Sector

Induced CO2 Transport Sector calculated from I/O Analysis
Air
Automobile

Maritime

RailSource: Keio University, 2001
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