The Middle East as a Global Strategic Challenge – Outlook in 2030 andResponses
This research project maps out the possible courses the Middle East may take in thenext 15 years (scenario planning targeted at the year 2030) with the intent of crafting
policy recommendations that best put Japan’s strength to use in bringing stability to theMiddle East. In doing so, three critical elements relevant to the present Middle East will
be analyzed: (1) the political changes that have swept the region, (2) the current energy
situation and policies concerning nuclear energy, and (3) interactions between regional
powers outside the Middle East (in particular, the U.S., Europe, and China).
Stability in the Middle East is a global issue beyond the bounds of the region, and is alsoa crucial foreign policy challenge for Japan. First, as the world’s largest oil producing
region, the Middle East is a global economic lifeline.

With shale gas, renewableenergy, and petroleum production outside the Middle East on the rise, the region issupplying a smaller share of energy to the rest of the world, although its presence as amajor energy supplier is likely to remain unchanged.

Japan, in particular, imports

almost 80 percent of its oil from the Middle East, and the possible effects of affairs in theregion on the international economy and community cannot easily be dismissed.
Second, the region is home to security issues stemming from various conflicts, whose
resolution could stabilize the region and have a global impact. The deceleration of theMiddle East peace process and Iran’s nuclear program that surfaced in 2002 have boththreatened the region’s security and, as a result, posed not only a risk to energy supply
but also a threat to global efforts toward nuclear non-proliferation.
Since the 1970s, there has been an increasing movement in the Middle East to groundthe restructuring of the international order, as well as sociopolitical change, in Islamic
ideals (the Iranian Revolution of 1979 being an example).

However, movements withties to Islam span a wide range and are not all militant in nature; in fact, violent groups,
such as Al-Qaeda, represent the minority. To effectively tackle the global challenge ofpreventing terrorism, a close analysis of various philosophies/movements falling under
the umbrella of “Islam” must be conducted. Much thought, therefore, ought to be given
to appropriately tying Islam – a religion with a significant number of followers in theMiddle East – to the challenge of bringing stability to the region and preventing
terrorism.
Furthermore, the issues facing the Middle East hold a global significance, for the region
influences both the domestic and international policies of dominant international players

such as the U.S. and Europe. The Middle East has traditionally had deep historic ties
with Europe, with the U.S. in the late 20th century, and now with remarkably fast-growing
China.

Analyses of the past interactions and future prospects of the Middle East andthe international community mainly the U.S. and Europe, are of paramount importancein grasping the foreign policy issues of the Middle East.
This project, with such a thought in mind, seeks to analyze the driving factors behind thepolitical changes in the Middle East, and conducts scenario planning (with a time frameof 2030) to consider policy recommendations that highlight Japan’s strengths (e.g.,
economic prowess and soft power).
[Research Project Members]
Project Leader
NAGASAWA Eiji (Professor, Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia, The University ofTokyo)
Group Members
IMAI Kohei (Research Fellow PD, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, MeijiUniversity)
EZAKI Chie (Associate Professor, Department of International Relations, National
Defense Academy of Japan)
ONOZAWA Toru (Associate Professor, Graduate School of Letters/Faculty of Letters,Kyoto University)
KOBAYASHI Yoshikazu (Manager, Oil & Gas Unit, The Institute of Energy Economics,Japan)
HOSAKA Shuji (Senior Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan)
MORIYAMA Teruaki (Associate Professor, Doshisha School of Theology, DoshishaUniversity)
YOKOTA Takayuki (Associate Professor, College of International Relations, NihonUniversity)
YOSHIOKA Akiko (Senior Research Fellow, The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan)
Group Members and Secretaries
IIJIMA Toshiro(Deputy Director-General, Senior Research Fellow, The Japan Institute ofInternational Affairs)
NUKII Mari (Research Fellow, The Japan Institute of International Affairs)