World Energy
Outlook2023

INTERNATIONAL ENERGYAGENCYThe IEA examines thefull spectrumof energy issues
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over any territory, to thedelimitation of international
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Source: IEA.
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In memory of Robert Priddle(1938-2023)
Executive Director of the International
Energy Agency from 1994 to 2002.

Foreword
Today, 50 years on from the oil shock that led to the founding of the International Energy
Agency (IEA), the world once again faces a moment of high geopolitical tensions anduncertainty for the energy sector. There are parallels between then and now, with oil
supplies in focus amid a crisis in the Middle East – but there are also key differences: theglobal energy system has changed considerably since the early 1970s and further changes
are taking place rapidly before our eyes.
One thing that hasn’t changed since the 1970s is the IEA’s commitment to its core mission ofsafeguarding energy security. As we have demonstrated throughout the global energy crisis
that erupted in February 2022, the IEA is ready to respond quickly and effectively to sudden
disruptions in energy markets. At the same time, we continue to dedicate significant efforts
to anticipating and addressing the challenges that are evolving and emerging across theentire global energy system. This is an area where the data and analysis of the World Energy
Outlook (WEO) are so valuable.
With the insights of this new WEO in mind, I want to highlight some important differences
between where the energy sector was 50 years ago and where it is today. The 1973-74 crisis
was all about oil, but today’s pressures are coming from multiple areas. Alongside fragile oilmarkets, the world has seen an acute crisis in natural gas markets caused by Russia’s cuts to
supply, which had strong knock-on effects on electricity. At the same time, the world isdealing with an acute climate crisis, with increasingly visible effects of climate change causedby the use of fossil fuels, including the record-breaking heatwaves experienced around theworld this year.
A crisis with multiple dimensions requires solutions that are similarly all-encompassing.
Ultimately, what is required is not just to diversify away from a single energy commodity but
to change the energy system itself, and to do so while maintaining the affordable and secureprovision of energy services. The growing impacts of global warming make this all the more
important, as an increasing amount of energy infrastructure that was built for a cooler,calmer climate is no longer reliable or resilient enough as temperatures rise and weather
events become more extreme. In short, we have to transform the energy system both tostave off even more severe climate change and to cope with the climate change that isalready with us.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

A second difference between the 1970s and today is that we already have the clean energy
technologies for the job in hand. The 1973 oil shock was a major catalyst for change, driving
a huge push to scale up energy efficiency and nuclear power. But it still took many years to
ramp them up while some other key technologies like wind and solar were still emerging.
Today, solar, wind, efficiency and electric cars are all well established and readily available –and their advantages are only being reinforced by turbulence among the traditional
technologies. We have the lasting solutions to today’s energy dilemmas at our disposal.

Foreword

5

The third difference is that clean energy transitions have real momentum at the moment. In
the 1970s, many countries were going from a standing start as they scrambled to respond tothe oil shock. As we show in this WEO, clean energy deployment is moving faster than many
people realise. And it can and should go faster still for us to meet our shared energy andclimate goals. In addition, we have international processes and accords in place today, suchas the Paris Agreement, that provide an important framework for stronger action by
governments.
And one final difference is, unlike in 1973, we have the IEA. I firmly believe that the Agency
has a crucial role to play – by safeguarding against traditional energy security vulnerabilities,
by anticipating new ones, and – in the words of our most recent Ministerial mandates – by“leading the global energy sector’s fight against climate change”.
The world is much better prepared than we were 50 years ago. We know what we need to
do and where we need to go. At the same time, the challenges are much broader and more
complex – energy security and climate are interwoven, and claiming that we need to focus
on just one or the other is a blinkered view. We can still learn from the response to the oilshock of 1973 and from the approach that led to the Paris Agreement of 2015: governments
must work together to address our major common challenges because a patchwork ofindividual efforts will fall short.
We need to co-ordinate and co-operate – those in the lead and with greater resources needto help those further behind who have less. Each country must find its own path, but it stillneeds some signposts along the way. This WEO highlights, once again, the choices that canmove the energy system in a safer and more sustainable direction. I encourage decision
makers around the world to take this report’s findings into account – in the lead-up to the
COP28 climate change conference in Dubai later this year and beyond.
I would like to commend my IEA colleagues who worked so hard on this WEO – alongside
many other key reports, activities and events – for all their efforts, under the outstanding
leadership of Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould.
We have chosen to dedicate this edition to a longtime friend of the WEO and leading figurein the history of the IEA, our former Executive Director Mr Robert Priddle, who sadly passed
away in September. After serving as Executive Director between 1994 and 2002, Mr Priddle
continued to make a major contribution for many years as editor of the WEO. In this role, his
deep understanding of energy and geopolitical matters, as well as his exceptional
communication skills, raised our work to a new level. We will miss him greatly.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Dr Fatih Birol
Executive Director
International Energy Agency

6International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Acknowledgements
This study was prepared by the World Energy Outlook (WEO) team in the Directorate of
Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) in co-operation with other directorates andoffices of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The study was designed and directed by
Laura Cozzi, Director, Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks, and Tim Gould, Chief Energy
Economist.
The modelling and analytical teams for the World Energy Outlook-2023 were led by
Stéphanie Bouckaert (demand), Christophe McGlade (lead on Chapter 4, supply),
Thomas Spencer (climate and environment), Cecilia Tam (investment and finance),
Brent Wanner (power) and Daniel Wetzel (sustainable transitions).
Key contributions from across the WEO team were from:Oskaras Alšauskas (transport), Caleigh Andrews (employment), Yasmine Arsalane (lead on
Chapter 5, lead on economic outlook, power), Blandine Barreau (government spending),
Simon Bennett (lead on hydrogen, energy technologies), Charlène Bisch (datamanagement), Eric Buisson (critical minerals), Olivia Chen (lead on buildings, equity),
Yunyou Chen (power), Jonathan Coppel (economic outlook), Daniel Crow (lead on climate
modelling, behaviour), Julie Dallard (power, flexibility), Davide D'Ambrosio (lead on data
science, power), Amrita Dasgupta (critical minerals), Tanguy De Bienassis (investment andfinance), Tomás De Oliveira Bredariol (lead on methane, coal), Nouhoun Diarra (access),
Michael Drtil (power, electricity networks), Darlain Edeme (Africa), Musa Erdogan (fossil fuelsubsidies, data management), Eric Fabozzi (power, electricity networks), Víctor García Tapia(buildings, data science), Emma Gordon (Africa), Alexandra Hegarty (methane),Jérôme Hilaire (lead on oil and gas supply modelling), Paul Hugues (lead on industry),
Bruno Idini (employment), Hyeji Kim (transport), Tae-Yoon Kim (lead on critical minerals,
energy security), Martin Kueppers (industry, decomposition analysis), Yannick Monschauer(lead on affordability), Alessio Pastore (power, electricity networks), Diana Perez Sanchez(industry, affordability), Apostolos Petropoulos (lead on transport), Ryszard Pospiech (leadon coal supply modelling, data management), Alana Rawlins Bilbao (investment andfinance), Arthur Roge (agriculture, data science), Gabriel Saive (climate pledges),
Max Schoenfisch (power, electricity security), Siddharth Singh (lead on Chapter 5, lead on
regional analysis), Leonie Staas (buildings, behaviour), Carlo Starace (Africa), Matthieu Suire(demand-side response), Jun Takashiro (lead on fossil fuel subsidies), Ryota Taniguchi(power), Gianluca Tonolo (lead on energy access), Anthony Vautrin (buildings, demand-side
response), Peter Zeniewski (lead on Chapter 3, lead on gas, energy security). Other
contributions were from: Abdullah Al-Abri, Emile Belin-Bourgogne, France d'Agrain,
David Fischer, Paul Grimal, Marco Iarocci, Yun Young Kim, Alice Latella, Carson Maconga,
Ana Morgado, Rebecca Ruff and Natalia Triunfo.
Marina Dos Santos, Eleni Tsoukala and Reka Koczka provided essential support.
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Edmund Hosker carried editorial responsibility.
Debra Justus was the copy-editor.
Acknowledgements7Colleagues from the Energy Technology Policy (ETP) Division led by Timur Gül, Chief Energy
Technology Officer, co-led on modelling and analysis, with overall guidance fromAraceli Fernandez Pales and Uwe Remme. Peter Levi, Tiffany Vass, Alexandre Gouy,
Leonardo Collina, Richard Simon, Faidon Papadimoulis contributed to the analysis onindustry. Elizabeth Connelly, Jacob Teter, Shane McDonagh, Mathilde Huismans contributed
to the analysis on transport. Chiara Delmastro, Rafael Martínez-Gordón contributed to theanalysis on buildings. José Miguel Bermúdez Menéndez, Stavroula Evangelopoulou,
Francesco Pavan and Amalia Pizarro contributed to the analysis on hydrogen. Praveen Bains
contributed to the analysis on biofuels.
Other key contributors from across the IEA were: Heymi Bahar, Carlos Fernández Alvarez andJeremy Moorhouse.
Valuable comments and feedback were provided by other senior management andnumerous other colleagues within the IEA. In particular, Mary Warlick, Dan Dorner,
Toril Bosoni, Joel Couse, Paolo Frankl, Dennis Hesseling, Brian Motherway and Hiroyasu
Sakaguchi.
Thanks go to the IEA’s Communications and Digital Office for their help in producing thereport and website materials, particularly to Jethro Mullen, Poeli Bojorquez, Curtis Brainard,
Jon Custer, Hortense de Roffignac, Astrid Dumond, Merve Erdil, Grace Gordon, Julia
Horowitz, Oliver Joy, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin, Julie Puech, Robert Stone, Sam Tarling, Clara
Vallois, Lucile Wall, Therese Walsh and Wonjik Yang. IEA’s Office of the Legal Counsel, Officeof Management and Administration and Energy Data Centre provided assistance throughout
the preparation of the report.
Valuable input to the analysis was provided by David Wilkinson (independent consultant).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Support for the modelling of air pollution and associated health impacts was provided byPeter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Laura Warnecke, Katrin Kaltenegger, Jessica Slater,
Chris Heyes, Wolfgang Schöpp, Fabian Wagner and Zbigniew Klimont (International Institutefor Applied Systems Analysis). Valuable input to the modelling and analysis of greenhousegas emissions from land use, agriculture and bioenergy production was provided by
Nicklas Forsell, Zuelclady Araujo Gutierrez, Andrey Lessa-Derci-Augustynczik, Stefan Frank,
Pekka Lauri, Mykola Gusti and Petr Havlík (International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis). Advice related to the modelling of global climate impacts was provided by
Jared Lewis, Zebedee Nicholls (Climate Resource) and Malte Meinshausen (Climate Resourceand University of Melbourne).
The work could not have been achieved without the support and co-operation provided bymany government bodies, organisations and companies worldwide, notably: Enel; Eni;
European Commission (Directorate General for Climate and Directorate General for Energy);
Hitachi Energy; Iberdrola; Japan (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, and Ministry ofForeign Affairs); The Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Japan; andSwiss Federal Office of Energy.

8International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

The IEA Clean Energy Transitions Programme, the IEA flagship initiative to transform theworld’s energy system to achieve a secure and sustainable future for all, supported thisanalysis.
Thanks also go to the IEA Energy Business Council, the IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board, theIEA Energy Efficiency Industry Advisory Board, the IEA Renewable Industry Advisory Boardand the IEA Finance Industry Advisory Board.

Peer reviewers

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Many senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewed
preliminary drafts of the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They
include:Keigo Akimoto

Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Japan

Doug Arent

National Renewable Energy Laboratory, United States

Papa Samba Ba

Ministère du Pétrole et des Energies, Sénégal

Manuel Baritaud

European Investment Bank

Marco Baroni

Enel Foundation

Harmeet Bawa

Hitachi Energy

Christian Besson

Independent consultant

Jorge Blazquez

BP

Stefan Bouzarovski

University of Manchester

Mick Buffier

Glencore

Nick Butler

King’s College London

Rebecca Collyer

European Climate Foundation

Russell Conklin

US Department of Energy

Anne-Sophie Corbeau

Columbia University

Ian Cronshaw

Independent consultant

François Dassa

EDF

Jonathan Elkind

Columbia University

Jason Farr

Oxfam

David Fritsch

US Energy Information Administration

Hiroyuki Fukui

ToyotaMike Fulwood

NexantDavid G. Hawkins

Natural Resources Defense Council

Tim Goodson

Independent consultant

Francesca Gostinelli

ENEL

Yuya Hasegawa

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan

Acknowledgements

9Sara Hastings-Simon

University of Calgary

Laury Haytayan

Natural Resource Gouvernance Institute

Masazumi Hirono

Tokyo Gas

Takashi Hongo

Mitsui Global Strategic Studies Institute, Japan

Jan-Hein Jesse

JOSCO Energy Finance and Strategy Consultancy

Sohbet Karbuz

Mediterranean Observatory for Energy

Rafael Kawecki

Siemens Energy

Michael Kelly

World LPG Association

Msizi Khoza

Absa GroupKen Koyama

Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Atsuhito Kurozumi

Kyoto University of Foreign Studies, Japan

Joyce Lee

Global Wind Energy Council

Li Jiangtao

State Grid Energy Research Institute, China

Thomas-Olivier Léautier

TotalEnergies

Pierre-Laurent Lucille

Engie

Ritu Mathur

NITI Aayog, Government of India

Felix Chr. Matthes

Öko-Institut – Institute for Applied Ecology, Germany

Malte Meinshausen

University of Melbourne, Australia

Antonio Merino Garcia

RepsolTatiana Mitrova

SIPA Center on Global Energy Policy

Christopher Moghtader

UK Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy

Isabel Murray

Department of Natural Resources, Canada

Steve Nadel

American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy,
United States

Jan Petter Nore

Norad

Thomas Nowak

European Heat Pump Association

Pak Yongduk

Korea Energy Economics Institute

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Demetrios Papathanasiou World Bank
Ignacio Pérez Arriaga

Comillas Pontifical University's Institute for
Research in Technology, Spain

Andrea Pescatori

International Monetary Fund

Glen Peters

CICERO

Cédric Philibert

French Institute of International Relations,
Centre for Energy & Climate

Vicki Pollard

Directorate-General for Climate Action, European Commission

Andrew Purvis

World Steel Association

10

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Julia Reinaud

Breakthrough Energy

Oliver Reynolds

Global Off‐Grid Lighting Association

Nick Robins

Grantham Research Institute

Jay Rutovitz

University of Technology Sydney

Yamina Saheb

OpenEXP, IPCC author

Ana Belén Sánchez

Institute for the Just Transition, Spain

Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer

World Energy Council

Jesse Scott

Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung(German Institute for Economic Research)

Adnan Shihab-Eldin

Independent consultant

Rebekah Shirley

World Resources InstituteMaria Sicilia

EnagásPaul Simons

Yale University

Gurdeep SinghNational Thermal Power Corporation Limited

Jim Skea

Imperial College London, IPCC Co-Chair Working Group III

Jonathan Stern

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, United Kingdom

Miguel Gil Tertre

Directorate General for Energy, European Commission

Wim Thomas

Independent consultant

Rahul Tongia

Centre for Social and Economic Progess, India

Nikos Tsafos

General Secretariat of the Prime Minister of theHellenic Republic

Adair Turner

Energy Transitions Commission

James Turnure

US Energy Information Administration

Fridtjof Fossum Unander

Aker Horizons

Noé Van Hulst

International Partnership for Hydrogen and Fuel Cells
in the Economy

David Victor

University of California, San Diego, United States

Andrew Walker

Cheniere Energy

Charles Weymuller

EDF

Kelvin Wong

DBS Bank

Christian Zinglersen

European Union Agency for the Cooperation ofEnergy Regulators

Acknowledgements

11

The work reflects the views of the International Energy Agency Secretariat, but does notnecessarily reflect those of individual IEA member countries or of any particular funder,
supporter or collaborator. None of the IEA or any funder, supporter or collaborator that
contributed to this work makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, inrespect of the work’s contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shall not be
responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the work.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of orsovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries
and to the name of any territory, city or area.
Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed to:Laura Cozzi and Tim Gould
Directorate of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks
International Energy Agency
9, rue de la Fédération
75739 Paris Cedex 15
FranceE-mail: weo@iea.org

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

More information about the World Energy Outlook is available at www.iea.org/weo.

12International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Table of Contents
Foreword ................................................................................................................................. 5
Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................. 7
Executive summary ............................................................................................................... 17
1

Overview and key findings

23

Introduction ........................................................................................................... 25
1.1 A peak by 2030 for each of the fossil fuels .................................................... 26
1.1.1 Coal: Scaling up clean power hastens the decline ............................. 27
1.1.2 Oil: End of the “ICE age” turns prospects around .............................. 28
1.1.3 Natural gas: Energy crisis marks the end of the “Golden Age”.......... 29
1.2 A slowdown in economic growth in China would have huge implications
for energy markets ........................................................................................ 31
1.2.1 China’s growth has defined the energy world in recent decades ..... 31
1.2.2 Integrating a slowdown in China’s economy into the STEPS ............. 32
1.2.3 Sensitivities in the Outlook ................................................................ 35
1.3 A boom of solar manufacturing could be a boon for the world .................... 36
1.3.1 Solar module manufacturing and trade............................................. 37
1.3.2 Solar PV deployment could scale up faster to accelerate transitions 38
1.4 Pathway to a 1.5 °C limit on global warming is very tough, but it
remains open ................................................................................................. 42
1.4.1 Four reasons for hope ....................................................................... 42
1.4.2 Four areas requiring urgent attention ............................................... 46
1.5 Capital flows are gaining pace, but not reaching the areas of greatest need 49
1.5.1 Fossil fuels ......................................................................................... 50
1.5.2 Clean energy ...................................................................................... 51
1.6 Transitions have to be affordable.................................................................. 52
1.6.1 Affordability for households .............................................................. 53
1.6.2 Affordability for industry ................................................................... 55
1.6.3 Affordability for governments ........................................................... 57
1.7 Risks on the road to a more electrified future .............................................. 59
1.7.1 Managing risks for rapid electrification ............................................. 60

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

1.7.2 Critical minerals underpin electrification .......................................... 62
1.8 A new, lower carbon pathway for emerging market and developing
economies is taking shape ............................................................................. 63
Table of Contents131.9 Geopolitical tensions undermine energy security and prospects for rapid,
affordable transitions .................................................................................... 68
1.9.1 Clean energy in a low-trust world ..................................................... 69
1.9.2 Fossil fuels in a low-trust world ......................................................... 71
1.9.3 Risks of new dividing lines ................................................................. 72
1.10 As the facts change, so do our projections.................................................... 73
1.10.1 Solar PV and wind generation ........................................................... 75
1.10.2 Natural gas ......................................................................................... 77
2

Setting the scene

79

2.1 New context for the World Energy Outlook .................................................. 81
2.1.1 New clean energy economy .............................................................. 84
2.1.2 Uneasy balance for oil, natural gas and coal markets ....................... 86
2.1.3 Key challenges for secure and just clean energy transitions ............. 88
2.2 WEO scenarios ............................................................................................... 91
2.2.1 Policies ............................................................................................... 92
2.2.2 Economic and demographic assumptions ......................................... 93
2.2.3 Energy, critical mineral and carbon prices......................................... 95
2.2.4 Technology costs ............................................................................... 99
3

Pathways for the energy mix

101

3.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 103
3.2 Overview ..................................................................................................... 104
3.3 Total final energy consumption ................................................................... 107
3.3.1 Industry............................................................................................ 108
3.3.2 Transport ......................................................................................... 113
3.3.3 Buildings .......................................................................................... 118
3.4 Electricity ..................................................................................................... 123
3.5 Fuels ............................................................................................................ 130
3.5.1 Oil .................................................................................................... 130
3.5.2 Natural gas ....................................................................................... 135
3.5.3 Coal .................................................................................................. 140

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

3.5.4 Modern bioenergy ........................................................................... 145
3.6 Key clean energy technology trends ........................................................... 147

14International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

4

Secure and people-centred energy transitions

155

4.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 157
4.2 Environment and climate ............................................................................ 158
4.2.1 Emissions trajectory and temperature outcomes ........................... 158
4.2.2 Methane abatement........................................................................ 161
4.2.3 Air quality ........................................................................................ 164
4.3 Secure energy transitions ............................................................................ 166
4.3.1 Fuel security and trade .................................................................... 166
4.3.2 Electricity security ........................................................................... 171
4.3.3 Clean energy supply chains and critical minerals ............................ 178
4.4 People-centred transitions .......................................................................... 183
4.4.1 Energy access ................................................................................... 183
4.4.2 Energy affordability ......................................................................... 187
4.4.3 Energy employment ........................................................................ 191
4.4.4 Behavioural change ......................................................................... 193
4.5 Investment and finance needs .................................................................... 197
5

Regional insights

203

5.1 Introduction................................................................................................. 205
5.2 United States ............................................................................................... 206
5.2.1 Key energy and emissions trends .................................................... 206
5.2.2 How much have the US Inflation Reduction Act and other recent
policies changed the picture for clean energy transitions? ............. 208
5.3 Latin America and the Caribbean ................................................................ 211
5.3.1 Key energy and emissions trends .................................................... 211
5.3.2 What role for Latin America and the Caribbean in maintaining
traditional oil and gas security through energy transitions? ........... 213
5.3.3 Do critical minerals open new avenues for Latin America and the
Caribbean’s natural resources? ....................................................... 214
5.4 European Union........................................................................................... 216
5.4.1 Key energy and emissions trends .................................................... 216
5.4.2 Can the European Union deliver on its clean energy and criticalmaterials targets? ............................................................................ 218
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

5.4.3 What next for the natural gas balance in the European Union? ..... 219
5.5 Africa ........................................................................................................... 221
Table of Contents15

5.5.1 Key energy and emissions trends .................................................... 221
5.5.2 Recharging progress towards universal energy access.................... 223
5.5.3 What can be done to enhance energy investment in Africa?.......... 224
5.6 Middle East .................................................................................................. 226
5.6.1 Key energy and emissions trends .................................................... 226
5.6.2 Shifting fortunes for energy exports................................................ 228
5.6.3 How is the desalination sector changing in times of increasingwater needs and the energy transition? ......................................... 229
5.7 Eurasia ......................................................................................................... 231
5.7.1 Key energy and emissions trends .................................................... 231
5.7.2 What’s next for oil and gas exports from Eurasia? .......................... 233
5.8 China ............................................................................................................ 236
5.8.1 Key energy and emissions trends .................................................... 236
5.8.2 How soon will coal use peak in China? ............................................ 238
5.9 India ............................................................................................................. 241
5.9.1 Key energy and emissions trends .................................................... 241
5.9.2 Impact of air conditioners on electricity demand in India ............... 243
5.9.3 Will domestic solar PV module manufacturing keep pace withsolar capacity growth in India? ........................................................ 244
5.10 Japan and Korea .......................................................................................... 246
5.10.1 Key energy and emissions trends .................................................... 246
5.10.2 Challenges and opportunities of nuclear and offshore wind........... 248
5.10.3 What role can hydrogen play in the energy mix and how can thegovernments deploy it? ................................................................... 249
5.11 Southeast Asia ............................................................................................. 251
5.11.1 Key energy and emissions trends .................................................... 251
5.11.2 How can international finance accelerate clean energy transitions
in Southeast Asia? ........................................................................... 253
5.11.3 How can regional integration help integrate more renewables? .... 254

Annexes
Annex A. Tables for scenario projections ............................................................................ 259
Annex B. Design of the scenarios ........................................................................................ 295
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Annex C. Definitions ............................................................................................................ 319
Annex D. References ........................................................................................................... 339
Annex E. Inputs to the Global Energy and Climate Model .................................................. 347
16International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Executive Summary
The energy world remains fragile but has effective ways to improve energy
security and tackle emissions
Some of the immediate pressures from the global energy crisis have eased, but energy
markets, geopolitics, and the global economy are unsettled and the risk of further
disruption is ever present. Fossil fuel prices are down from their 2022 peaks, but markets
are tense and volatile. Continued fighting in Ukraine, more than a year after Russia’s invasion,
is now accompanied by the risk of protracted conflict in the Middle East. The macroeconomic mood is downbeat, with stubborn inflation, higher borrowing costs and elevateddebt levels. Today, the global average surface temperature is already around 1.2 °C above
pre-industrial levels, prompting heatwaves and other extreme weather events, andgreenhouse gas emissions have not yet peaked. The energy sector is also the primary causeof the polluted air that more than 90% of the world’s population is forced to breathe, linked
to more than 6 million premature deaths a year. Positive trends on improving access toelectricity and clean cooking have slowed or even reversed in some countries.
Against this complex backdrop, the emergence of a new clean energy economy, led by solar
PV and electric vehicles (EVs), provides hope for the way forward. Investment in clean
energy has risen by 40% since 2020. The push to bring down emissions is a key reason, but
not the only one. The economic case for mature clean energy technologies is strong. Energy
security is also an important factor, particularly in fuel-importing countries, as are industrial
strategies and the desire to create clean energy jobs. Not all clean technologies are thriving
and some supply chains, notably for wind, are under pressure, but there are striking
examples of an accelerating pace of change. In 2020, one in 25 cars sold was electric; in 2023,
this is now one in 5. More than 500 gigawatts (GW) of renewables generation capacity are
set to be added in 2023 – a new record. More than USD 1 billion a day is being spent on solar
deployment. Manufacturing capacity for key components of a clean energy system, including
solar PV modules and EV batteries, is expanding fast. This momentum is why the IEA recently
concluded, in its updated Net Zero Roadmap, that a pathway to limiting global warming to
1.5 °C is very difficult – but remains open.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

This new Outlook provides a strong evidence base to guide the choices that face energy
decision makers in pursuit of transitions that are rapid, secure, affordable and inclusive.
The analysis does not present a single view of the future but instead explores different
scenarios that reflect current real-world conditions and starting points. The Stated Policies
Scenario (STEPS) provides an outlook based on the latest policy settings, including energy,
climate and related industrial policies. The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes allnational energy and climate targets made by governments are met in full and on time. Yet,much additional progress is still required to meet the objectives of the Net Zero Emissions by
2050 (NZE) Scenario which limits global warming to 1.5 °C. Alongside our main scenarios, we
explore some key uncertainties that could affect future trends, including structural changes
in China’s economy and the pace of global deployment of solar PV.

Executive Summary17

We are on track to see all fossil fuels peak before 2030
A legacy of the global energy crisis may be to usher in the beginning of the end of the fossil
fuel era: the momentum behind clean energy transitions is now sufficient for global
demand for coal, oil and natural gas to all reach a high point before 2030 in the STEPS. The
share of coal, oil and natural gas in global energy supply – stuck for decades around 80% –starts to edge downwards and reaches 73% in the STEPS by 2030. This is an important shift.
However, if demand for these fossil fuels remains at a high level, as has been the case forcoal in recent years, and as is the case in the STEPS projections for oil and gas, it is far fromenough to reach global climate goals.
Policies supporting clean energy are delivering as the projected pace of change picks up in
key markets around the world. Thanks largely to the Inflation Reduction Act in the UnitedStates, we now project that 50% of new US car registrations will be electric in 2030 in the
STEPS. Two years ago, the corresponding figure in the WEO-2021 was 12%. In the European
Union in 2030, heat pump installations in the STEPS reach two-thirds of the level needed in
the NZE Scenario, compared with the one-third projected two years ago. In China, projected
additions of solar PV and offshore wind to 2030 are now three-times higher than they werein the WEO-2021. Prospects for nuclear power have also improved in leading markets, withsupport for lifetime extensions of existing nuclear reactors in countries including Japan,
Korea and the United States, as well as for new builds in several more.
Although demand for fossil fuels has been strong in recent years, there are signs of achange in direction. Alongside the deployment of low-emissions alternatives, the rate at
which new assets that use fossil fuels are being added to the energy system has slowed. Salesof cars and two/three-wheel vehicles with internal combustion engines are well below where
they were before the Covid-19 pandemic. In the electricity sector, worldwide additions ofcoal- and natural gas-fired power plants have halved, at least, from earlier peaks. Sales ofresidential gas boilers have been trending downwards and are now outnumbered by sales ofheat pumps in many countries in Europe and in the United States.

China has changed the energy world, but now China is changing

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

China has an outsized role in shaping global energy trends; this influence is evolving as its
economy slows and its structure adjusts, and as clean energy use grows. Over the past ten
years, China accounted for almost two-thirds of the rise in global oil use, nearly one-third of
the increase in natural gas, and has been the dominant player in coal markets. But it is widely
recognised, including by the country’s leadership, that China’s economy is reaching an
inflection point. After a very rapid building out of the country’s physical infrastructure, thescope for further additions is narrowing. The country already has a world-class high-speed
rail network; and residential floorspace per capita is now equal to that of Japan, even though
GDP per capita is much lower. This saturation points to lower future demand in many energyintensive sectors like cement and steel. China is also a clean energy powerhouse, accounting
for around half of wind and solar additions and well over half of global EV sales in 2022.

18

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Momentum behind China’s economic growth is ebbing and there is greater downsidepotential for fossil fuel demand if it slows further. In our scenarios, China’s GDP growth
averages just under 4% per year to 2030. This results in its total energy demand peaking
around the middle of this decade, with robust expansion of clean energy putting overall fossil
fuel demand and emissions into decline. If China’s near-term growth were to slow by anotherpercentage point, this would reduce 2030 coal demand by an amount almost equal to thevolume currently consumed by the whole of Europe. Oil import volumes would decline by
5% and LNG imports by more than 20%, with major implications for global balances.

New dynamics for investment are taking shape
The end of the growth era for fossil fuels does not mean an end to fossil fuel investment,
but it undercuts the rationale for any increase in spending. Until this year, meeting
projected demand in the STEPS implied an increase in oil and gas investment over the courseof this decade, but a stronger clean energy outlook and lower projected fossil fuel demandmeans this is no longer the case. However, investment in oil and gas today is almost double
the level required in the NZE Scenario in 2030, signalling a clear risk of protracted fossil fueluse that would put the 1.5 °C goal out of reach.
Simply cutting spending on oil and gas will not get the world on track for the NZE Scenario;
the key to an orderly transition is to scale up investment in all aspects of a clean energy
system. The development of a clean energy system and its effect on emissions can be
reinforced by policies that ease the exit of inefficient, polluting assets, such as ageing coalplants, or that restrict the entry of new ones into the system. But the urgent challenge is toincrease the pace of new clean energy projects, especially in many emerging and developing
economies outside China, where investment in energy transitions needs to rise by more than
five times by 2030 to reach the levels required in the NZE Scenario. A renewed effort,
including stronger international support, will be vital to tackle obstacles such as high costs ofcapital, limited fiscal space for government support and challenging business environments.

Meeting development needs in a sustainable way is key to moving faster

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The global peaks in demand for each of the three fossil fuels mask important differences
across economies at different stages of development. The drivers for growth in demand forenergy services in most emerging and developing economies remain very strong. Rates ofurbanisation, built space per capita, and ownership of air conditioners and vehicles are far
lower than in advanced economies. The global population is expected to grow by about 1.7
billion by 2050, almost all of which is added to urban areas in Asia and Africa. India is theworld’s largest source of energy demand growth in the STEPS, ahead of Southeast Asia andAfrica. Finding and financing low-emissions ways to meet rising energy demand in these
economies is a vital determinant of the speed at which global fossil fuel use eventually falls.
Clean electrification, improvements in efficiency and a switch to lower- and zero-carbon
fuels are key levers available to emerging and developing economies to reach their nationalenergy and climate targets. Getting on track to meet these targets, including net zero goals,
has broad implications for future pathways. In India, it means every dollar of value added by
Executive Summary

19

India’s industry results in 30% less carbon dioxide (CO2) by 2030 than it does today, and eachkilometre driven by a passenger car, on average, emits 25% less CO2. Some 60% of two- andthree-wheelers sold in 2030 are electric, a share ten times higher than today. In Indonesia,
the share of renewables in power generation doubles by 2030 to more than 35%. In Brazil,
biofuels meet 40% of road transport fuel demand by the end of the decade, up from 25%
today. In sub-Saharan Africa, meeting diverse national energy and climate targets means that
85% of new power generation plants to 2030 are based on renewables. Significant progress
is made towards universal access to modern energy, with some 670 million people gaining
access to modern cooking fuels, and 500 million to electricity by 2030.

Ample global manufacturing capacity offers considerable upside for solar PV
Renewables are set to contribute 80% of new power capacity to 2030 in the STEPS, withsolar PV alone accounting for more than half. However, this uses only a fraction of theworld’s potential. Solar has become a major global industry and is set to transform electricity
markets even in the STEPS. But there is significant scope for further growth given
manufacturing plans and the technology’s competitiveness. By the end of the decade, theworld could have manufacturing capacity for more than 1 200 GW of panels per year. But in
the STEPS, only 500 GW is deployed globally in 2030. Boosting deployment up from theselevels raises some complex questions. It would require measures – notably expanding andstrengthening grids and adding storage – to integrate the additional solar PV into electricity
systems and maximise its impact. Manufacturing capacity is also highly concentrated: China
is already the largest producer and its expansion plans far outstrip those in other countries.
Trade, therefore, would continue to be vital to support worldwide deployment of solar.
Using 70% of anticipated solar PV manufacturing capacity would bring deployment to thelevels projected in the NZE Scenario; effectively integrated, this would further cut fossil
fuel use – first and foremost coal. In a sensitivity case, we explore how the STEPS projections
would change if the world added over 800 GW of new solar PV per year by 2030. The
implications would be particularly strong for China, reducing coal-fired generation by afurther 20% by 2030 compared with the STEPS. Without assuming any additional
retirements, the average annual capacity factor for coal-fired power plants would fall toaround 30% in 2030, from over 50% today. The consequences would spread well beyond
China: in this case, more than 70 GW of additional solar PV is deployed on average each year
to 2030 across Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Even with modest
curtailment, this reduces fossil fuel-fired generation in these regions by about one-quarterin 2030 compared with the STEPS. Solar PV alone cannot get the world on track to meet its
climate goals, but – more than any other clean technology – it can light up the way.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

A wave of new LNG export projects is set to remodel gas markets
Starting in 2025, an unprecedented surge in new LNG projects is set to tip the balance ofmarkets and concerns about natural gas supply. In recent years, gas markets have been
dominated by fears about security and price spikes after Russia cut supplies to Europe.
Market balances remain precarious in the immediate future but that changes from the
middle of the decade. Projects that have started construction or taken final investment
20

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

decision are set to add 250 billion cubic metres per year of liquefaction capacity by 2030,
equal to almost half of today’s global LNG supply. Announced timelines suggest a particularly
large increase between 2025 and 2027. More than half of the new projects are in the UnitedStates and Qatar.
This additional LNG arrives at an uncertain moment for natural gas demand and createsmajor difficulties for Russia’s diversification strategy towards Asia. The strong increase in
LNG production capacity eases prices and gas supply concerns, but comes to market at a time
when global gas demand growth has slowed considerably since its “golden age” of the 2010s.
Alongside gas contracted on a longer-term basis to end-users, we estimate that more than
one-third of the new gas will be looking to find buyers on the short-term market. However,mature markets – notably in Europe – are moving into stronger structural decline andemerging markets may lack the infrastructure to absorb much larger volumes if gas demandin China slows. The glut of LNG means there are very limited opportunities for Russia tosecure additional markets. Russia’s share of internationally traded gas, which stood at 30%
in 2021, is halved by 2030 in the STEPS.

Affordability and resilience are watchwords for the future
A tense situation in the Middle East is a reminder of hazards in oil markets a year after
Russia cut gas supplies to Europe. Vigilance on oil and gas security remains essential
throughout clean energy transitions, and our projections highlight how the balance of tradeand potential vulnerabilities shift over time. In the STEPS, the share of seaborne crude oil
trade from the Middle East to Asia rises from some 40% of the total today to 50% by 2050.
Asia is also the final destination for almost all of additional Middle East LNG supply.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The global energy crisis was not a clean energy crisis, but it has focused attention on theimportance of ensuring rapid, people-centred and orderly transitions. Three interlinked
issues stand out: risks to affordability, electricity security and the resilience of clean energy
supply chains. Sheltering consumers from volatile fuel prices in 2022 cost governments
USD 900 billion in emergency support. The way to limit such expenditures in the future is todeploy cost-effective, clean technologies at scale, especially in poorer households,
communities and countries that struggle to finance the upfront investments required. As theworld moves towards a more electrified, renewables-based system, security of electricity
supply is also paramount. Higher investment in robust and digitalised grids needs to beaccompanied by a role for batteries and demand response measures for short-term flexibility
and lower-emissions technologies for seasonal variations, including hydropower, nuclear,fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilisation and storage, bioenergy, hydrogen and ammonia.
Diversification and innovation are the best strategies to manage supply chain
dependencies for clean energy technologies and critical minerals. A range of strategies arein place to strengthen the resilience of clean energy supply chains and reduce today’s highlevels of concentration, but these will take time to bear fruit. Exploration and production
investments are rising around the world for critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, nickel andrare earths, but the share of the top three producers in 2022 is either unchanged or has
increased from 2019 levels. Our tracking of announced projects suggests concentration levels
Executive Summary21

in 2030 are set to remain high, especially for refining and processing operations. Many
midstream projects are being developed in today’s major producing regions, with China
holding half of planned lithium chemical plants and Indonesia representing nearly 90% ofplanned nickel refining facilities. Alongside investments in diversified supply, policies
encouraging innovation, mineral substitution and recycling can moderate trends on the
demand side and ease market pressures. They are vital components of critical minerals
security.

We need to go much further and faster, but a fragmented world will not rise
to meet our climate and energy security challenges
Proven policies and technologies are available to align energy security and sustainability
goals, speed up the pace of change this decade and keep the door to 1.5 °C open. The STEPS
sees a peak in energy-related CO2 emissions in the mid-2020s but emissions remain highenough to push up global average temperatures to around 2.4 °C in 2100. This outcome has
improved over successive editions of the Outlook but still points towards very widespreadand severe impacts from climate change. The key actions required to bend the emissions
curve downwards to 2030 are widely known and in most cases very cost effective. Tripling
renewable energy capacity, doubling the pace of energy efficiency improvements to 4% per
year, ramping up electrification and slashing methane emissions from fossil fuel operations
together provide more than 80% of the emissions reductions needed by 2030 to put theenergy sector on a pathway to limit warming to 1.5 °C. In addition, innovative, large-scalefinancing mechanisms are required to support clean energy investments in emerging anddeveloping economies, as are measures to ensure an orderly decline in the use of fossil fuels,
including an end to new approvals of unabated coal-fired power plants. Every country needs
to find its own pathway, and it needs to be inclusive and equitable to secure public
acceptance, but this package of global measures provides crucial ingredients for any
successful outcome from the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai in December.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

No country is an energy island, and no country is insulated from the risks of climate change.
The necessity of collaboration has never been higher. Especially in today’s tense times,
governments need to find ways to safeguard co-operation on energy and climate, including
by embracing a rules-based system of international trade and spurring innovation andtechnology transfer. Without this, the chance to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5 °C
will disappear. The outlook for energy security will also look perilous if we lose the benefitsof interconnected and well-functioning energy markets to ride out unexpected shocks.
Fifty years on from the first oil shock, the world has lasting solutions to address energy
insecurity that can also help tackle the climate crisis. The first oil shock 50 years ago brought
two crucial policy responses firmly into play: energy efficiency and low-emissions power, led
at the time by hydropower and nuclear. Today’s energy decision makers are once again
facing geopolitical tensions and the risk of energy shocks, but they have a much broader
range of highly competitive clean technologies at their disposal, and an accumulated wealthof policy experience on how to accelerate their deployment. The crucial step is to put thesereadily available solutions to work.
22

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Chapter 1
Overview and key findings
Transitions are getting competitiveS U M M A R Y• Conflict and uncertainty provide an inauspicious backdrop to the new World Energy
Outlook. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, instability in the Middle East could
lead to further disruption to energy markets and prices. This underscores once again
the frailties of the fossil fuel age, and the benefits for energy security as well as foremissions of shifting to a more sustainable energy system.

• Clean energy projects are facing headwinds in some markets from cost inflation,
supply chain bottlenecks and higher borrowing costs. But clean energy is the mostdynamic aspect of global energy investment. How fast it grows in the coming decades
in response to policy and market stimuli is key to explain the differences in trajectories
and outcomes across our three main scenarios. In all scenarios, the momentum
behind the clean energy economy is enough to produce a peak in demand for coal, oiland natural gas this decade, although the rates of post-peak decline vary widely.

• In the Stated Policies Scenario, average annual growth rate of 0.7% in total energy
demand to 2030 is around half the rate of energy demand growth of the last decade.
Demand continues to increase through to 2050. In the Announced Pledges Scenario,
total energy demand flattens, thanks to improved efficiency and the inherent
efficiency advantages of technologies powered by electricity – such as electricvehicles and heat pumps – over fossil fuel-based alternatives. In the Net Zero
Emissions by 2050 Scenario, electrification and efficiency gains proceed even faster,
leading to a decline in primary energy of 1.2% per year to 2030.

• Our analysis explores some key uncertainties, notably regarding the pace of China’s
economic growth and the possibilities for more rapid solar PV deployment opened bya massive planned expansion in manufacturing capacity (led by China). We highlightthe implications of a huge increase in the capacity to export liquefied natural gas
starting in the middle of this decade, led by the United States and Qatar. We examine
how any deterioration in geopolitical tensions would undermine both the prospects
for energy security and for rapid, affordable transitions.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• Extreme volatility in energy markets during the global energy crisis has highlighted
the importance of affordable, reliable and resilient supply, especially in price-sensitive
developing economies that see the largest increase in demand for energy services.
Energy transitions rely on electrification and technologies like wind, solar PV andbatteries, and push electricity security and diversified supply for clean technologies
and critical minerals up the policy agenda. Emerging market and developing
economies account for almost 80% of the global growth in electricity demand in theStated Policies Scenario, and for over two-thirds in the other scenarios.

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings23

Solar PV is lighting
a path forward forclean energy transitions

2030
STEPS 2030
12.3 Gt
500 GW-1.6 Gtin the NZESolar Case

2022
+120

STEPS
additions

2015

+140

+65

220 GW

50 GW

Additional in the NZE Solar Case

120 GW

Power sector
CO2 emissions

China
Advanced economies
Other emerging market
and developing economies

Manufacturing
capacity

640 GW
1 260 GW

Solar manufacturing growth is outpacing the rise ofsolar PV deployment, creating some risks ofimbalances but huge opportunities for the world toaccelerate energy transitions.

Around 250 bcm of newliquefaction capacity is set to comeonline by 2030, of which the UnitedStates and Qatar account for 60%.

A wave of new LNG export projects
is set to overturn gas markets
Capacity additions
Africa2011

Australia
Other

Qatar

United States

2015

2030

2022
CanadaSoutheast Asia

RussiaTotal capacity

EJ

350 bcm

400 bcm

635 bcm

885 bcm

As China’s demand growthslows, clean energy pushes
fossil fuels into decline

4
Unabated fossil fuels

Annual change in energy consumption
Clean energy

2

2000

-2

2023

2050

Introduction
Some of the tensions in energy markets receded in 2023 since the extreme volatility of the
global energy crisis, but the situation remains fragile. The urgent task of transforming theenergy system now takes place in a more challenging macroeconomic and geopoliticalcontext. The frailties of the fossil fuel age and the hazards that it has created for the planet
are plain to see, and opportunities in the emerging clean energy economy are growing fast.
But many uncertainties remain about the resilience of energy supply chains old and new,about risks to the security and affordability of transitions, and about whether the process ofchange will be sufficiently rapid to avoid very severe impacts from a changing climate.
Using the latest data for energy markets, policies and technologies, the World Energy Outlook(WEO) provides insights on all these key issues. It does so by exploring scenarios that reflect
different assumptions about the actions taken in the coming years to shape energy systems
and reduce energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The projections in the Stated
Policies Scenario (STEPS) give a sense of the current direction of travel for the energy
economy, based on the actual state of play in different sectors, countries and regions. The
Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) shows how that future would be different if all countries
were to hit their aspirational targets, including national and regional net zero emissions
pledges, on time and in full. The updated Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario
illustrates what more is required to limit global warming to 1.5 degree Celsius (°C).
This overview chapter provides ten takeaways from the new analysis. Our projections showthat for the first time demand for each of the fossil fuels reach a peak in the STEPS before
the end of this decade. We examine how uncertainties over the pace of economic growth in
The People’s Republic of China (hereinafter China) could affect the near-term outlook, aswell as the implications of the extraordinary China-led boom in manufacturing capacity forsolar photovoltaic (PV) modules. We highlight areas of hope and areas for caution about theprospects of staying within the 1.5 °C limit, and examine the crucial issue of capital flows forclean energy and fossil fuels.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Against a background of macroeconomic uncertainty, we consider the affordability of thetransition for households, industry and governments. As the world comes to rely more andmore on electricity, we look at risks affecting technologies that have a key part to play inincreasing electrification and decarbonising the power supply. We also ask whether thepolicy and technology choices facing emerging market and developing economies open thepossibility of a new lower carbon pathway for development. In addition, we identify the ways
in which geopolitical tensions could affect the Outlook, and look back to see how and why
our projections have changed over time.
The topics included in this chapter represent key themes of the World Energy Outlook 2023.
Further information and background on the IEA Net Zero Roadmap is in Net Zero Roadmap:
A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach published in September 2023. In addition,a range of supply and demand issues for the oil and gas industry and their relation to the
Outlook are the focus of a forthcoming special report in November 2023.
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

25

1

1.1

A peak by 2030 for each of the fossil fuels

In the WEO-2023, the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) sees lower demand projections foreach of the fossil fuels than in the WEO-2022. This reflects current policy settings bygovernments worldwide, a slight downward revision in the economic outlook, and thecontinued ramifications of the 2022 global energy crisis. It also reflects longer term trends:
fossil fuel technologies have been losing market share to clean energy technologies acrossvarious sectors in recent years, and in many cases fossil fuel-powered technologies havealready seen a peak in sales or additions.
These shifts mean that each of the three fossil fuel categories are now projected to reach apeak by 2030 (Figure 1.1). This has never previously been seen in the STEPS. The changes inour projections highlight how the energy system is changing as low-emissions electricity andfuels meet an increasing share of the world’s rising energy needs, and as energy efficiency
improvements help to moderate those needs. Total demand for fossil fuels declines from themid-2020s by an average of 3 exajoules (EJ) per year to 2050 in the STEPS, and the peak inenergy-related CO2 emissions in the STEPS is brought forward to the mid-2020s.

Index (peak value = 100%)

Figure 1.1 ⊳Fossil fuel consumption by fuel in the STEPS, 2000-2050

100%

Natural gas
Oil

90%

Coal

80%
70%
60%
50%

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

All fossil fuels peak before the end of this decade, with declines inadvanced economies and China offsetting increasing demand elsewhereWe highlight below some of the key drivers for these changes by fuel, but there are some
important issues to bear in mind when considering these trends. First, the projected declines
in demand after the peaks are nowhere near steep enough to be consistent with the
NZE Scenario – getting on track for this scenario will require much faster clean energy
deployment and much more determined policy action by governments (section 1.4). Second,the demand trends for the different fuels vary considerably among regions, with reduced
26

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

demand in advanced economies partially offset by continued growth in many emerging
market and developing economies, particularly for natural gas. Third, while the trajectories
in our scenarios reflect underlying structural changes, the demand outlook will not be linear
in practice. There will inevitably be spikes, dips and plateaus along the way. For example,
heatwaves and droughts could well cause temporary jumps in coal demand by pushing up
electricity use at a time when hydropower output may be constrained.
Even as demand for fossil fuels falls, energy security challenges will remain since the processof adjustment to changing demand patterns will not necessarily be easy or smooth. For
example, the peaks in demand we see based on today’s policies do not remove the need forinvestment in oil and gas supply, given how steep the natural declines from existing fields
often are. At the same time, they underline the economic and financial risks of major new oil
and gas projects, on top of their risks for climate change (section 1.5).

1.1.1

Coal: Scaling up clean power hastens the decline

After remaining consistently high over the past decade, global coal demand is now set to fallwithin the next few years in the STEPS (Figure 1.2). This projected trend reflects declines inrecent years of capacity additions of both coal-fired power and coal-fired iron and steel
production – the two largest consumers of coal today – which account for 65% and 16%
respectively of overall coal consumption.
Global coal demand by sector and annual average change
by region in the STEPS, 2000-2050
Annual average change

Coal demand
Steel Cement
6 000
Power

Mtce

Mtce

Figure 1.2 ⊳

5 000

75
50

4 000

25

3 000

0

2 000

-25

1 000

-50

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Power
Steel
CementOther
Peak year in coal capacity additions

2050

-75

20102022AE

20222030
China

20302050

Other EMDEIEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Peaks in coal capacity additions reached in the power, steel and cement sectors
are laying the foundation for global coal demand to peak in the mid-2020s
Note: Mtce = million tonnes of coal equivalent; AE = advanced economies; EMDE = emerging market anddeveloping economies.

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

27

1The share of coal-fired power in new worldwide capacity additions hit a high point in 2006
at 45% and has since fallen steadily to 11% in 2022. The size of annual coal capacity additions
peaked in 2012 at over 100 gigawatts (GW) before dropping to 50 GW in 2022, with big
investments in coal falling away rapidly, and solar PV and wind power increasingly
dominating the expansion of electricity systems. The role of coal-fired power plants has
started to shift towards providing flexibility and system services rather than bulk power. As
a result, the average capacity factor of coal power plants was almost ten percentage points
lower over the past decade than during the decade before.
Changes in iron and steel production have also contributed to the decline in coal demand.
Capacity additions of coal-based steel production plants 1 peaked in 2003 at over 130 million
tonnes (Mt), driven in large part by China’s rapid industrialisation. Eleven years later, global
coal demand for iron and steel production peaked at over 950 million tonnes of coalequivalent (Mtce) before starting to fall, despite a continuing steady increase in the
production of iron and steel. The decline in the global coal intensity of steel production since2015 is the result of growth in the share of scrap-based production in electric arc furnaces,
as well as alternatives to blast furnaces for iron production such as natural gas-based direct
reduced iron.
In advanced economies, coal demand peaked in 2007. In China – the world’s largest coalconsumer – the impressive growth of renewables and nuclear alongside macroeconomic
shifts point to a decrease in coal use by the mid-2020s. Coal use continues to increase inother emerging market and developing economies as new power plants and industry
capacity come online, but this growth is more than offset by projected declines elsewhere.

1.1.2

Oil: End of the “ICE age” turns prospects aroundIn the past two decades, oil demand has surged by 18 million barrels per day (mb/d). Muchof the increase has been driven by rising demand in road transport. The global car fleet
expanded by more than 600 million cars over the last 20 years, and road freight activity has
increased by almost 65%. Road transport now accounts for around 45% of global oil demand,
which is far more than any other sector: the petrochemicals sector, second-largest in oil
consumption, accounts for 15% of oil demand.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The astounding rise in electric vehicle (EV) sales is now having an impact on demand for oilin road transport. Sales of gasoline and diesel cars, two/three-wheelers and trucks peaked in2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively (Figure 1.3). In 2020, EVs accounted for 4% of global car
sales. They are on track to reach 18% in 2023 with 14 million EV sales, mostly in China andthe advanced economies, and are set to continue to increase rapidly in the future. Sales ofinternal combustion engine (ICE) buses also peak by the mid-2020s in the STEPS, with theuptake of electric buses rising particularly quickly in emerging market and developing
economies. By the end of this decade, road transport is no longer a source of oil demand
growth.
1 Includes blast furnaces-basic oxygen furnaces, smelting reduction-basic oxygen furnace, coal-based direct
reduced iron-electric arc furnace, coal-based iron in induction or in open hearth furnaces.

28

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Figure 1.3 ⊳Global oil demand by sector and annual average change
by region in the STEPS, 2000-2050

mb/d

Cars

100

Two/three-wheelers
Trucksmb/d

Oil demand

120

0.75
0.50

80

0.25

60

0

40

-0.25

20

-0.50

2000

2010

2020

Passenger vehicles Trucks
Peak in ICE vehicle sales

2030

2040

Non-road transport

2050
Other

1

Annual average change-0.7520102022AE

20222030

China

20302050

Other EMDEIEA. CC BY 4.0.

Sales of gasoline and diesel passenger vehicles and trucks have already peaked,
leading to a peak in oil demand before 2030
Note: mb/d = million barrels per day; AE = advanced economies; EMDE = emerging market and developing
economies.

Although oil demand for petrochemicals, aviation and shipping continues to increase throughto 2050 in the STEPS, this is not enough to offset reductions in demand from road transport,
as well as in the power and buildings sectors. As a result, oil demand peaks before 2030. The
decline from the peak however is a slow one in the STEPS all the way through to 2050.
The outlook for oil demand varies across regions. Oil demand in advanced economies peakedin 2005, and its decline becomes more pronounced in the coming decade. China’s robust oil
demand growth since 2010 weakens in the coming years and declines in the long run. In
emerging market and developing economies (other than China), which see growing
populations and car ownership, oil demand grows continuously to 2050.

1.1.3

Natural gas: Energy crisis marks the end of the “Golden Age”

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The “Golden Age of Gas”, a term coined by the IEA in 2011, is nearing an end. Global natural
gas use has increased by an annual average of almost 2% since 2011, but growth slows in the
STEPS to less than 0.4% per year from now until 2030. The power and buildings sectors –today’s biggest consumers of natural gas accounting for 39% and 21% respectively of total
demand – have already seen peaks in natural gas capacity additions for power plants andspace heating boilers, and muted demand in these two sectors reduces natural gas use
enough to cause it to peak by 2030 (Figure 1.4).

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

29

Global natural gas demand by sector and annual averagechange by region in the STEPS, 2000-2050

Figure 1.4 ⊳

5 000

Power

bcm

bcm

Natural gas demand
6 000
Boilers in buildings

30
20

4 000

10

3 000

0

2 000

-10

1 000

-20

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Power
Buildings
Industry
Peak year in gas capacity additions

2050
Other

Annual average change-3020102022AE

20222030
China

20302050

Other EMDEIEA. CC BY 4.0.

Additions of new gas power plants and gas boilers in buildings are slowing; gas demand
peaks before 2030 in the STEPS, though gas use in industry continues to increase
Note: bcm = billion cubic metres; AE = advanced economies; EMDE = emerging market and developing
economies.

The high point for natural gas power capacity additions was in 2002, when they exceeded
100 GW and made up around 65% of total annual capacity additions. Capacity additions fell
to less than 30 GW in 2022. Despite this slowing in annual additions, the global installedcapacity of natural gas power continues to expand over time. Gas differs in this respect fromcoal, where installed capacity reduces in the future. Natural gas demand in the power sector
nevertheless declines in the STEPS from today until 2050, with a particularly strong dip in the2030s when co-firing in gas-fired power plants begins to be deployed at scale.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Sales of gas-fired boilers for space heating in buildings have also peaked. At their height, gasboilers accounted for around 40% of total sales of space heating equipment. The subsequentdecline in sales over the last few years reflects the rapid rise of heat pumps, especially inadvanced economies. Heat pump sales have a strong impact on gas demand in the buildings
sector in the STEPS trajectory because space heating is by far the leading end-use in terms ofnatural gas demand today.
In advanced economies, the rebound in natural gas demand seen in 2021 did not last long,and demand in 2022 was below pre-pandemic levels. This faltering in demand reflects a shift
to renewables in electricity generation, the rise of heat pumps, and Europe’s accelerated
move away from gas following the Russian Federation (hereinafter Russia) invasion of
Ukraine. Demand continues to decline in the STEPS, and by 2030 this more than offsets
continued demand growth in emerging market and developing economies.
30

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

1.2

A slowdown in economic growth in China would havehuge implications for energy markets

1.2.1

China’s growth has defined the energy world in recent decades

China’s economic growth has been an epoch-making event over the last several decades.
Since 1995, China accounted for two-thirds of the decline in the global population living in
extreme poverty. Its GDP per capita increased more than seven-times in the same period, as
its economy transformed into a globally integrated, innovative industrial powerhouse.
Figure 1.5 ⊳China’s share in the change of selected global economicand energy sector indicators, 2012-2022

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%

GDP

EnergydemandEnergyrelated CO₂

Renewables
capacity
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

China’s growth has transformed the global economy, energy sector and environment
Note: GDP is measured at market exchange rates.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

More recently, over the course of the last decade China was responsible for more than onethird of growth in global GDP (Figure 1.5). China’s growth has done much to shape energy
markets and the global environment: in the last decade, it accounted for more than 50% of
global energy demand growth and 85% of the rise in energy sector CO2 emissions. But its
economy is changing. China’s leaders have long acknowledged that its current phase of
massive and resource-intensive investment in urbanisation, infrastructure and factories mustend. As far back as 2007, China’s then Premier warned that "the biggest problem with China's
economy is that growth is unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable". This
rebalancing could have substantial impacts on the outlook for China’s energy sector, andgiven China’s size, for the world too.

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

311

1.2.2Integrating a slowdown in China’s economy into the STEPSThe rebalancing of the Chinese economy still has a long way to go. Savings and investment
levels remain very high, the debt-to-GDP ratio has continued to climb, and the construction
sector retains an outsized role in GDP (Figure 1.6). This model is pushing against inherent
constraints. China already has a world-class infrastructure stock, and after growing almost
30% in the last decade its per capita residential floorspace is already equal to that of Japan,
despite China’s lower level of GDP per capita. China’s working age population peaked around2015 and is projected to fall by more than 20% by 2050. With this will come a reduced needfor investment, such as in new housing and infrastructure (Figure 1.7).
Figure 1.6 ⊳Selected indicators of structural change in the
Chinese economy, 2010-2022

Investment(share of GDP)

50%

350%

Debt
(share of GDP)

Construction and allied sectors(share of industrial VA)
50%

40%

280%

40%

30%

210%

30%

20%

140%

20%

10%

70%

10%

2010

2022

2010

2022

2010

2022
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Rebalancing of China’s economy still has a long way to go with investment,
debt-to-GDP ratio, and share of the construction sector in GDP remaining highNotes: GDP is expressed in market exchange rate terms. VA = value added. Allied sectors are basic chemicals
and fertilisers, basic metals, non-metallic minerals, pulp and paper, wood and wood products excluding
furniture. Debt refers to total outstanding credit to the non-financial sector from all lending sectors, expressed
as a percent of GDP.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Sources: IEA analysis based on data from Oxford Economics (2023) and BIS (2023).

Although the current property crisis in China has attracted much attention, it has not yet
significantly impacted the energy sector (Box 1.1). Moreover, the property crisis is a
symptom of the broad structural change facing the Chinese economy. How this economictransition plays out is one of the key uncertainties in this Outlook. In our scenarios, we haverevised downwards the long-term projection of GDP growth in China to just under 4% peryear for the period 2022 to 2030, and 2.3% per year for the period 2031 to 2050. This
compares to more than 4.5% and more than 2.5% respectively in the World Energy Outlook2022 scenarios. As a result, the economy is around 5% smaller in 2030 than projected last
32

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

year, and slightly less than 15% smaller in 2050. Despite these changes, China remains a
critical driver of global growth, accounting for almost one-third of global GDP growth to 2030
in our scenarios. But slower growth results in China’s total energy demand peaking aroundthe middle of this decade; with stable and then slowly declining demand, clean energy
growth is sufficient to drive a decline in fossil fuel demand and hence emissions.
Figure 1.7 ⊳Selected economic indicators and annual total energy demand
growth in China in the STEPS, 2010 – 2050

Economic indicators (peak = 1)
1.0

Energy demand growth (EJ)
12

Working age
population

0.9

8
Cement production

0.8
0.7

2020

2030

Clean energy

40Steel production

0.6
2010

Unabatedfossil
fuels

2040

2050

-4

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Cement, steel and working age population each have peaked and are set to decline; as
China’s economy changes, energy demand growth will slow, peak and decline
Source: Population projection from the Median Variant of the World Population Prospects (UNDESA, 2022).

Box 1.1 ⊳The property crisis is everywhere, except in the energy statistics

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Despite the importance of the unfolding property crisis, China’s energy demand and its
heavy industrial production appear only modestly affected. The total floorspace of new
projects started per year fell around 50% from 2019 to 2022; but floorspace underconstruction, despite falling in 2022, is still 1% higher than in 2019 (Figure 1.8). In otherwords, the property crisis has impacted new projects, not those already underconstruction. This explains why material and energy demand has been less impacted than
indicators like new project starts or property developer share or bond prices. It also
implies that if China’s property sector settles into a lower level of activity, over time thiswill impact the stock of projects under construction and hence energy and material
demand underlying construction projects.

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

33

1

120%

Selected property sector indicators, China, 2011-2022
Property indicators

Completed

Property indicators

Under construction

100%

Billion m²

Index (2019 = 100%)

Figure 1.8 ⊳

80%
60%
40%

12
Under construction

10
8

Sales

6
New floorspacestarted20%

4
2

New floorspace started

Sales

Completed
2011

2022

2011

2022
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

So far, the property crisis has hit the flow of new project starts,
but has had limited impact on the stock of projects under construction
Source: IEA analysis based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC, 2023).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

There are several additional reasons, both structural and cyclical, which explain why
energy demand has been resilient in the face of the downturn in the property sector in
China:


Rapid electrification has driven strong electricity demand growth. Electricity
generation accounted for more than 70% of the increase in energy demand since2015 in China.

“New economy” sectors have been growing strongly, including high-tech
manufacturing in clean energy areas such as PV and EVs. While the average annual
growth of fixed asset investment in property has shrunk by around 5% since January2022, it has grown by about 15% for automobile manufacturing, for example. To takeanother example, revenue in the last year for listed solar PV manufacturers andautomobile manufacturers amounted to USD 166 billion and USD 135 billion
respectively.

China is massively increasing its domestic petrochemical production. Between 2019and 2024, China is set to add as much petrochemical capacity as the combined
capacity of all OECD countries in Europe and Asia. Feedstock demand for
petrochemical production has increased 50% since 2019 and is responsible foraround 80% of growth in oil product demand in China over the 2019 to 2023 period.

Droughts in 2021 and 2022 constrained hydro electricity production (and arecontinuing to do so in 2023). Without this factor, China’s total energy demand
growth would have been less in 2022, and its CO2 emissions would have declined
rather than risen marginally.

34

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

1.2.3

Sensitivities in the Outlook

But outcomes other than those in the STEPS are possible. To explore possible implications,
we have modelled a Low Case and a High Case. In the Low Case, China’s GDP is around 7.5%
lower in 2030 than in the STEPS, with a more rapid decline in infrastructure and property
investment not fully offset by an increase in consumption and investment in other sectors.
Cement production is around 14% lower than in the STEPS, for example. The Low Case
assumes slower but ultimately “higher quality” growth. 2 The High Case assumes the reverse,with a delayed rebalancing temporarily increasing GDP growth while at the same timenegatively impacting longer term economic sustainability.
Figure 1.9 ⊳Key energy indicators for China in the Low Case versus
the STEPS, 2030

Coal
(Mtce)

Oil(mb/d)

Total CO₂
(Mt)

Natural gas
(bcm)

-50

-0.2

-6

-200

-100

-0.4

-12

-400

-150

-0.6

-18

-600

-200

-0.8

-24

-800

-250

-1.0

-30

-1000
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Slower but high quality growth in this decade would have large
impacts on world energy markets and China’s CO2 emissions

In the Low Case, primary coal demand is around 7% lower than in the STEPS in 2030 due tolower levels of production in heavy industries, less electricity demand, and continued robust
expansion of low-emissions sources of electricity generation (Figure 1.9). Oil is less affected
than coal, with primary demand around 0.75 mb/d lower than in the STEPS, but the decline
in demand nevertheless represents the equivalent of about 5% in projected 2030 oil imports
in the STEPS (or about 2% of the global market). Natural gas is also less affected than coal,with demand almost 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) lower in 2030 than in the STEPS, thoughstill over 15% higher than in 2022. This reduction represents the equivalent of more than

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

2 Increasingly used in official discourse, the phrase “high quality” growth is taken to mean economic growth

based on domestic consumption, external demand and business investment in productive sectors, as opposed
to continued growth based on high investment in property and infrastructure with low and diminishingproductivity returns.

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

351

20% of China’s projected liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports in the STEPS in 2030. Thesevarious changes result in CO2 emissions that are more than 0.8 gigatonnes (Gt) lower in 2030
than in the STEPS, and nearly 15% lower than in 2022. On the other hand, the High Case sees
stronger coal demand and higher CO2 emissions. Emissions still peak before 2030, but in 2030
are about 0.8 Gt higher than in the STEPS, and 1.6 Gt higher than in the Low Case. As in the
Low Case, the impact across fuels is not symmetrical, with less of an upside for oil than forcoal. In both the High Case and the Low Case, the weight of China in global energy marketsmeans that the changes have significant global implications.
This discussion highlights the importance of paying close attention to China’s
macroeconomic evolution. The Low Case, predicated on lower but higher quality growth,would have substantial and probably deflationary impacts on global energy commodity andtechnology markets. At the same time, increased emphasis on export-oriented sectors,
including clean energy technology sectors, in order to partially offset the decline of otherssuch as property could have implications for – already strained – trade relations. On the other
hand, a prolongation of the current infrastructure and property intensive model mightprovide a near-term boost to energy and commodity markets, but it would also increase CO2
emissions and could store economic problems for the future.

1.3

A boom of solar manufacturing could be a boon for
the world

Solar manufacturing has experienced a remarkable expansion over the last decade,increasing ten-fold globally to meet increasing demand for clean energy. This trend is set tocontinue at an elevated pace, with investments in the pipeline set to raise global solar
module manufacturing capacity from about 640 GW in 2022 to over 1 200 GW in the medium
term (Figure 1.10). Paired with rapid expansion along the supply chain – from the productionof polysilicon to wafers and solar cells – solar PV is poised to accelerate clean energy
transitions around the world.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Solar PV has been one of the major successes of the past decade, with annual deploymentof electricity generation capacity growing more than sevenfold. Manufacturing capacity
expansion has been even faster and the gap has driven down the utilisation rate of solar
manufacturing from close to 60% to below 40% in 2022. This is well below the 70% level thatwould normally be considered healthy for a mature industry. In the STEPS, global solar PV
deployment continues to expand from around 220 GW in 2022 to about 500 GW in 2030, butplanned manufacturing expansion means that the utilisation rate of solar manufacturing
remains below 40% through to 2030. The scope to make fuller use of solar manufacturing
capacity represents an enormous opportunity to accelerate the deployment of solar PV
around the world and accelerate energy transitions.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Figure 1.10 ⊳ Global solar module manufacturing and solar PV capacity
GW

additions in the STEPS, 2010-2030

1 200

60%

1 000

50%

800

40%

600

30%

400

20%

200

10%
2010

2015

2022

1

Production capacity
Historical
PlannedUtilisation rate(right axis)
STEPS solar PV
capacity additions

2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Planned expansion of solar manufacturing outpaces solar PV capacity additions to 2030;
its low utilisation rate presents a huge opportunity to accelerate clean energy transitions

1.3.1

Solar module manufacturing and trade

Solar manufacturing today is highly concentrated – just five countries account for over 90%
of global capacity. China is far and away the largest, with the capacity to produce solar
modules with an output of over 500 GW every year, equivalent to 80% of world
manufacturing capacity. The other four are Viet Nam (5% of the global market), India (3%),
Malaysia (3%) and Thailand (2%). The next five leading solar manufacturers – the UnitedStates, Korea, Cambodia, Türkiye and Chinese Taipei – each account for around 1% of the
global total, as does the European Union.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

While fewer than 40 countries have capacity to produce solar modules, over 100 countries
completed solar PV projects in 2022, which mostly relied on imported solar panels. China is
the primary exporter of solar panels (IEA, 2022a). Its exports, and those of other exporters,
facilitate the expansion of renewable energy in markets around the world. Southeast Asia is
the second-largest exporter, with many of the panels it exports going to the United States
and the European Union. As domestic manufacturing capacity in India has increased in recent
years, there is potential to reduce import dependence over the coming years. Today, theEuropean Union and the United States are the largest importers of solar panels. New importtariffs have recently been put in place in the United States on solar modules that originate in
China: these are set to change the pattern of imports to the United States, and may haveknock-on effects in other markets.

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

37

Figure 1.11 ⊳ Planned solar module manufacturing capacity and
1 200

Solar module exporters

GW

GW

solar PV capacity additions in the STEPS, 2030
80

900

60

600

40

300

20

China

Southeast
Asia

India

Planned solar module manufacturing

Solar module importers

UnitedStatesEuropean
Union

Rest ofworld

2030 solar PV capacity additions
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Solar manufacturing is set to expand in more than a dozen countries: China remains thelargest exporter, while the European Union and United States remain the main importers

Plans for additional capacity suggest that solar manufacturing will remain highly
concentrated, and that trade will continue to be important for many markets (Figure 1.11).
China plans to add another 500 GW of solar module manufacturing capacity in the coming
years, far outstripping plans for new capacity in other countries. Expansion on this scalemeans that it is likely to maintain its 80% share of the global total and to remain the primaryexporter of solar modules by some distance. India aims to continue expanding its production
capacity to meet domestic needs and to export solar modules: projects in the pipeline under
the Production Linked Incentives scheme suggest that its manufacturing capacity could
exceed 70 GW per year by 2027. Production capacity in Southeast Asia is set to outpace
regional needs, allowing it to remain an important exporter. In the United States, planned
solar module production capacity investments have been boosted by the Inflation Reduction
Act, and are on course to increase sixfold in the medium term. However, without further
investment, significant imports will still be needed to meet fast growing solar PV deployment
in the STEPS in 2030. Solar manufacturing in the European Union is set to double in themedium term, but here too deployment is increasing rapidly, and about 70% of deployment
in 2030 will depend on imported solar modules unless further investments are made in
manufacturing in the European Union.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

1.3.2

Solar PV deployment could scale up faster to accelerate transitions

Planned increases in solar PV manufacturing capacity around the world have the potential toenable over 800 GW of new solar PV to be deployed in 2030, which is in line with the level of
deployment reached in the NZE Scenario in 2030 (Figure 1.12). This would raise the average
38

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

utilisation rate for solar module manufacturing to around 70%, which is roughly what might
be expected in a mature industry. We have constructed the NZE Solar Case which looks atwhat would happen if all this potential solar capacity was tapped and compares theoutcomes in 2030 with those in the STEPS. The rest of this section highlights this comparison.
Figure 1.12 ⊳ Global solar PV and battery storage capacity additions andpower sector CO2 emissions, 2022 and 2030

Power sector CO₂ emissions

Gt CO₂GW

Solar PV and battery capacity additions
1 000
800

15
12

600

9

400

6

200

3
2022
Solar PVSTEPSNZE solar
2030
Battery storage

2022

STEPS

NZE solar
2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Taking advantage of solar manufacturing capacity could lift solar PV deployment to over800 GW by 2030, in line with the NZE Scenario, cutting power sector emissions 30% by 2030
Note: GW = gigawatts; Gt = gigatonnes; NZE solar = NZE Solar Case.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

An important initial point is that rapid further deployment of solar PV in the NZE Solar Casewould require measures to integrate the additional solar PV into electricity systems andmaximise its impact. Scaling up battery storage would be crucial in most cases to improve
the alignment of solar PV output with electricity demand patterns and system needs. In the
NZE Solar Case, utility-scale battery deployment in 2030 is close to double the level in the
STEPS. Measures to modernise and expand networks, facilitate demand response and boost
power system flexibility would also be necessary.
Accelerating solar PV deployment to the levels in the NZE Scenario would reduce CO2
emissions in 2030 by displacing some unabated fossil fuels. Global CO2 emissions from thepower sector would fall below 11 Gt in 2030, some 15% lower than the level in the STEPS in
2030 and 30% below the level in 2022. Coal-fired electricity generation would be around 15%
lower than in the STEPS in 2030: the decline in coal-fired generation would largely take placein emerging market and developing economies and would deliver the bulk of the emissions
reductions. Natural gas-fired electricity generation would also be reduced by 15% comparedwith the STEPS in 2030, with reductions in both advanced economies and emerging market
and developing economies.
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

39

1China could accelerate solar PV deployment to shift away from coal fasterIn the STEPS, solar PV capacity additions in China reach over 270 GW per year before
flattening. While this means a marked slowing of the rate of growth achieved in recent years,
it still puts China five years ahead of schedule to reach 1 200 GW of solar PV and windcapacity, which is one of the targets for 2030 in its Nationally Determined Contribution.
Nevertheless, there is scope for China to accelerate its uptake of both distributed solar PV
and large-scale projects. In the NZE Solar Case, China’s annual solar PV capacity additions
exceed 400 GW by 2030 (Figure 1.13). To successfully integrate the additional solar PV andkeep curtailment at manageable levels, battery storage and network enhancements would
be as important in China as everywhere else. Continued progress on power system reforms,
including further moves towards a unified national power market, would help make the bestuse of the additional solar PV (IEA, 2023a).
Figure 1.13 ⊳ Solar PV capacity additions and coal-fired electricity generationin China in the STEPS and NZE Solar Case, 2020-2035

Coal-fired electricity generation

TWh

GW

Solar PV capacity additions
600

6 000

NZE solar case
4 000

400
STEPS
200

2020

2 000

2025

2030

2035

2020

2025

2030

2035
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

With targeted integration measures, China could deploy significantly
more solar PV and put coal-fired power into a steeper decline

Effectively integrated, higher solar PV deployment would accelerate the transition away fromcoal-fired power in China. While coal-fired generation would still peak around 2025, it would
decline more steeply afterwards. By 2030, the level of coal-fired generation in the NZE Solar
Case would be 20% lower than in the STEPS and 35% lower than in 2022. Without assuming
any additional retirements, the average annual capacity factor for coal-fired power plants
would fall to about 30% in 2030, compared with about 40% in the STEPS and over 50% in
2022. As a result, power sector CO2 emissions would fall to about 4.2 Gt in 2030, a 30%
reduction from the 2022 level.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Emerging market and developing economies could also shift away from coal faster
Spare solar PV manufacturing capacity could also facilitate faster uptake of low cost solar PV
in emerging market and developing economies other than China. In the NZE Solar Case, morethan 70 GW of additional solar PV is deployed each year to 2030 across Africa, Latin America
and the Caribbean (LAC), Middle East and Southeast Asia. Even with modest amounts ofcurtailment, this would reduce both natural gas-fired and coal-fired power generation by
about one-quarter in 2030 compared with the levels in the STEPS, cutting power sector CO2
emissions in 2030 by over 500 Mt, 30% of the total. The Middle East would also have theopportunity to cut both coal and natural gas use in power, while in LAC the additional solar
PV would mostly reduce demand for natural gas-fired generation; in Africa and Southeast
Asia, its biggest impact would be on coal-fired power (Figure 1.14).
Figure 1.14 ⊳ Additional solar PV capacity additions in the NZE Solar Case and
GWrelated impacts in selected regions relative to the STEPS, 2030

30

60%

Additional solar PV
capacity per year40%
to 2030
Impacts (right axis):
20%
Coal-fired
generation
0%
Natural gas-fired
generation-20% Power sector
CO₂ emissions
-40%

20
10
0
-10
-20
-30

Southeast Asia

AfricaMiddle East

EMDE in LAC-60%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Additional solar PV deployed in emerging market and developing economies could
significantly reduce generation from coal and natural gas and cut CO2 emissions
Note: EMDE = emerging market and developing economies. LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Hydropower resources in LAC and Africa could facilitate the integration of more solar PV,
while the Middle East’s reliance on natural gas would also help to provide system flexibility.
Southeast Asia would face the most serious integration challenges, which could be eased byexpanding interconnections and cross-border trade (IEA, 2019). In all emerging market anddeveloping economies, access to finance and the reduced costs of capital would be essential
to be able to take advantage of the opportunity to accelerate uptake of solar PV (IEA, 2021a).

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

41

1

1.4

The pathway to a 1.5 °C limit on global warming
is very tough, but it remains open

Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach, the IEA update to thelandmark Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap, was published in September 2023 (IEA, 2023b). The
updated Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario is incorporated in full in this Outlook. Itreached the conclusion that the pathway to net zero emissions by 2050 has narrowed since
the first version published in 2021, but that it remains feasible. In this section, we highlightfour reasons why this pathway remains open and look at four areas that require urgent
attention if the promise of a 1.5 °C limit on global warming is to be realised.

1.4.1

Four reasons for hope

Clean energy policies are stepping up
Many countries and an increasing number of businesses are committed to reaching net zero
emissions. As of September 2023, net zero emissions pledges cover more than 85% of global
energy-related emissions and nearly 90% of global GDP. Ninety-three countries and theEuropean Union have pledged to meet a net zero emissions target. Moreover, governments
around the world, especially in advanced economies, have responded to the pandemic andthe global energy crisis by putting forward new measures designed to promote the uptakeof renewables, electric cars, heat pumps, energy efficiency and other clean energy
technologies.
EV targets have driven a major transformation in the industrial strategies of car and truck
manufacturers in recent years, together with fuel economy and CO2 emissions standards inthe European Union and China, and more recently in the United States. Similarly, electric
two/three-wheelers and buses have seen significant uptake in India and other emerging
market and developing economies thanks to policy support, increasing economic
competitiveness and limited infrastructure needs. The United States, through the Inflation
Reduction Act adopted in 2022, has provided unprecedented funding to support deployment
and reduce costs for a range of low-emissions technologies, notably carbon capture,utilisation and storage (CCUS) and hydrogen. Successive five-year plans in China haveprogressively raised ambitions for solar PV and driven down global costs. Offshore wind
deployment in Europe has turned into a global industry.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Clean energy deployment is accelerating fast
Clean energy investment and deployment have increased rapidly in response to the market
signals and financial incentives provided by governments, with mass-manufactured
technologies such as solar PV, wind turbines and EVs leading the way. Sales of residential
heat pumps and stationary battery storage are also rising fast. Since the Paris Agreement was
signed in 2015, almost 1 terawatt (TW) of solar PV capacity has been added to the global
system – nearly equivalent to the total installed electricity capacity in the European Union.

42

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Around 40% of this deployment was in 2021 and 2022. Well over half of the electric cars on
the road worldwide have been sold since 2021.
As a result, solar PV capacity additions are currently tracking ahead of the trajectoryenvisaged in the 2021 version of our NZE Scenario. We now estimate that global
manufacturing capacities for solar PV and EV batteries would be sufficient to meet projecteddemand in 2030 in the updated NZE Scenario, if all announced projects proceed. This
progress reflects major cost reductions in recent years: the costs of key clean energy
technologies – solar PV, wind, heat pumps and batteries – fell by close to 80% on a
deployment weighted average basis between 2010 and 2022.
Box 1.2 ⊳Clean energy deployment is starting to bend the emissions curve

Clean energy deployment is starting to bend the emissions curve, thanks largely to solar
PV, wind power and EVs. These three technologies contribute the bulk of the emissions
reductions in the WEO-2023 STEPS relative to a pre-Paris Baseline Scenario (Figure 1.15).
Solar PV is projected to reduce emissions by around 3 Gt in 2030, roughly equivalent to
the emissions from all the cars on the road worldwide today. Wind power is projected toreduce emissions by around a further 2 Gt in 2030, and EVs by around 1 Gt more. This isfar from enough to get on track for net zero emissions by 2050; indeed staying on a STEPS
trajectory to 2030 would definitely close the door to the 1.5 °C limit. But it is keeping thepathway open.
Figure 1.15 ⊳ Global energy sector CO2 emissions in the pre-Paris
Gt CO₂

Baseline Scenario and the STEPS, 2015-2030

45
Pre-Paris Baseline
Other
Electric vehicles
Wind

40

Solar PVSTEPS-2023

35

30
2015

2022

2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Solar PV, wind power and EVs reduce emissions by 6 Gt in 2030 in the STEPS
relative to the pre-Paris Baseline Scenario

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

431

We have the tools to go much fasterThe key actions required to bend the emissions curve much more sharply downwards by2030 are mature, tried and tested, and in most cases very cost effective. More than 80% of
the additional emissions reductions needed in 2030 in the NZE Scenario come from wellknown sources: ramping up renewables, improving energy efficiency, increasing
electrification and cutting methane emissions. In the NZE Scenario, tripling the installedcapacity of renewables and doubling the rate of energy intensity improvements are central
to the transformation of the energy sector.
Figure 1.16 ⊳ Global renewables power capacity, primary energy intensity

12 000

Renewables

6%

8 000

Intensity improvements

Mt

GW

improvements, and energy sector methane emissions in the
NZE Scenario, 2022 and 2030

4%
x3

Methane emissions

100
-75%

x2
2%

4 000

2022

150

2030

50

2022

2030

2022

2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Renewables, energy efficiency and methane emissions reduction options
are available today and crucial to reducing near-term emissions

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Tripling global installed capacity of renewables to 11 000 GW by 2030 provides the largest
emissions reductions to 2030 in the NZE Scenario. Current trends are encouraging; repeating
the growth rate seen over the last decade would be sufficient, and current policy settings
already put advanced economies and China on track to achieve 85% of their contribution tothis global goal. The contribution of solar PV has been revised upward from the 2021 versionof the NZE Scenario, underpinned by a surge in global manufacturing capacity, but a range of
low-emissions technologies is required to ensure balanced and secure decarbonisation of thepower sector.
Doubling the annual rate of energy intensity improvement by 2030 in the NZE Scenario not
only reduces emissions but also boosts energy security and affordability, saving the energy
equivalent of all worldwide oil use in road transport today. Priorities vary by country, but the
44

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

key improvements at the global level come from upgrading the technical efficiency ofequipment such as electric motors and air conditioners, from efficiency gains brought about
by electrification and the switch away from solid biomass use in low income countries, andfrom using energy and materials more efficiently.
Further electrification of end-uses is a priority. EVs and heat pumps are central to this. Salesof EVs are already increasing fast enough to achieve the NZE Scenario milestone of two-outof-three cars sold in 2030 being electric, and announced production targets from car makers
suggest that such an outcome is within reach. Heat pump sales rose 11% globally in 2022,
but many markets, notably in the European Union, are already tracking ahead of the roughly
20% annual growth rate needed to 2030 in the NZE Scenario.
Achieving the rapid growth in renewables, efficiency and electrification envisaged in the
NZE Scenario drives down demand for fossil fuels by more than 25% this decade. However,
it is also vital to reduce emissions from the fossil fuels that continue to be used. Cutting
methane emissions from fossil fuel supply by 75% by 2030 is one of the lowest cost
opportunities to limit warming in the near term, and the technical solutions needed are tried
and tested. Without action to reduce methane emissions from fossil fuel supply, global
energy sector CO2 emissions would need to reach net zero by around 2045 to meet the 1.5 °C
limit goal.

The world is finding innovative answers
There is noticeably less reliance on early-stage technologies to reach net zero emissions in
the updated NZE Scenario than in our first roadmap report in 2021. At that time, technologies
not available on the market, i.e. at prototype or demonstration phase, delivered nearly 50%of the emissions reductions needed in 2050 to reach net zero. Now that number is around
35% (Figure 1.17). Progress has been driven by both public and private efforts to further
develop and commercialise new clean energy technologies, spurred by supportive
government policies and the growing market prize of the clean energy economy. Energy
R&D spending by globally listed companies exceeded USD 130 billion in 2022, an increase of
25% from 2020, and clean energy venture capital flows remain strong, despite the moredifficult macroeconomic environment.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Part of this shift is also due to increased confidence in direct electrification as a cost-effective
approach. In the road transport sector, for example, cost reductions and standardisation forcommercial lithium-ion batteries in particular have strengthened the business case forelectromobility over other options for all types of road transport. Overall, thedecarbonisation of road transport in the 2023 NZE Scenario relies around ten percentage
points less on technologies under development in 2050 than was the case in the 2021
version, in part because of a reduction in the share of hydrogen fuel cell electric heavy-duty
vehicles.

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

45

1Figure 1.17 ⊳ Comparison of CO2 emissions reductions in 2050 relative to baseyear by technology maturity in the 2021 and 2023 NZE Scenario
20%

40%

60%

80%

Market uptake

Demonstration

100%

NZE-2021

NZE-2023

Behavioural change

MaturePrototype
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Emissions reductions by 2050 from technologies in demonstration or prototype stage havebeen reduced from almost half in the 2021 NZE Scenario to about 35% in 2023 NZE Scenario

1.4.2

Four areas requiring urgent attention

Scale up clean energy investment in emerging market and developing economies
Clean energy investment needs to rise everywhere, but the steepest increases are needed inemerging market and developing economies other than China (Figure 1.18). From 2015 to2022, advanced economies and China together accounted for over 95% of global electric carand heat pump sales and nearly 85% of combined wind and solar capacity additions. There
are some bright spots elsewhere, notably solar investment in India, but overall clean energy
investment outside advanced economies and China has been stagnant in real terms since2015. It would need to increase by more than six-times over the next ten years to get on
track for the NZE Scenario. However, there are significant obstacles to such a scale-up,
including tightening financial and fiscal conditions, high levels of government indebtedness,and high cost of capital for clean energy projects. Overcoming these will require stronger
domestic policies together with enhanced international support, including much moreconcessional funding to improve risk adjusted returns and mobilise private capital at scale.
Demand for energy services to 2050 is set to rise fastest in emerging market and developing
economies other than China, and it is vital that this increased demand is met in a sustainable
way. At the moment, the distribution of clean energy use across countries is even moreunequal than for energy consumption as a whole. Among the countries for which IEA has
comprehensive energy statistics, the current Gini coefficient 3 of energy inequality is 0.39 for

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

3 The Gini coefficient is a measure of inequality typically used to measure income inequality, which has been

adopted in this section to evaluate inequality in energy consumption. 1 indicates perfect inequality (where
one group or one individual consumes or receives all the resources), while 0 indicates perfect equality.

46

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

all sources of energy consumption and 0.46 for clean energy. This underlines the need to findways to improve investment in emerging market and developing countries other than China,
and to raise the level of deployment of clean energy technologies in those countries.
Figure 1.18 ⊳ Average annual clean energy investment needs by
2.0

Other EMDE

China

Advanced economies
Clean energy supply
Grid and storage
Low-emissions power
Energy efficiency andend-use1.5
1.02046-502026-302022

2046-502026-302022

2046-502026-30

0.5

2022

Trillion USD (2022, MER)

region/country in the NZE Scenario, 2022-2050

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The bulk of increased investment in clean energy is needed in emerging economies otherthan China; it rises more than sevenfold in the second-half of the 2040s relative to 2022
Note: MER = market exchange rate; EMDE = emerging market and developing economies.

Ensure a balanced mix of investment, especially in infrastructure

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

A net zero energy system cannot rely only on solar, wind power and EVs. Rapid growth in theuse of these technologies needs to be complemented by larger, smarter and repurposed
infrastructure networks, large quantities of low-emissions fuels, and technologies to capture
CO2 and store it permanently or transform it into climate neutral fuels. Investments in manyof these areas are lagging. Grid infrastructure is a case in point: the time required to obtaingrid connections can take several years and appears to be increasing rather than shrinking.
This is hindering current projects and risks choking off new ones. In the NZE Scenario,transmission and distribution grids expand by around 2 million kilometres (km) each year to2030, and around 30 000 to 50 000 km of CO2 pipelines are installed by the same year,
together with new hydrogen infrastructure. Investment on this scale depends on expedited
planning and permitting processes.
Expanded, modernised and cybersecure transmission and distribution grids are critical toelectricity security in a world where the share of solar PV and wind in electricity generation
is rising rapidly. Investment is needed to provide adequate system flexibility, without which
there is a risk of rising amounts of surplus solar PV and wind power at times when output
exceeds demand. Batteries and demand response play a critical role in meeting hourly
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

47

1

variability, while dispatchable low-emissions capacity – fossil fuel capacity with CCUS,
hydropower, biomass power, nuclear, and hydrogen and ammonia-based plants – play a
critical role in smoothing variability across seasons.

Make transitions resilient, inclusive and affordable
Clean energy transitions require significantly fewer extractive resources in aggregate thanthe current energy system: for every unit of energy delivered in 2050, the energy system in
the NZE Scenario consumes two-thirds less in materials, fossil fuels and critical minerals
combined, than it does today. But that does not remove concerns about energy and mineralsecurity, indeed some concerns may intensify as the energy sector is transformed across theworld.
As demand for oil and gas declines, supply starts to become concentrated in large resourceholders whose economies are most vulnerable to the process of change. There are also
potential risks to the supply of critical minerals that are vital to the manufacture of manyclean energy technologies. Although capital spending for development of critical minerals
saw a 30% increase in 2022 and exploration spending rose by 20%, announced criticalmineral mining projects are not sufficient to meet the needs of the NZE Scenario in 2030.
Bridging this gap requires a strong focus on investment in mining, processing and refining, as
well as on recycling and technology innovation.
Policy makers need to pay close attention to the resilience of clean energy technology supply
chains. For the moment, these exhibit a higher degree of geographical concentration thanfossil fuels, with China having a notably strong position. This presents an elevated risk of
disruption, whether from geopolitical tensions, extreme weather or a simple industrial
accident. Many countries are now seeking to promote more diverse patterns of investment
and manufacturing in clean energy supply, including for critical minerals. Finding ways to doso while continuing to enjoy the benefits of trade is difficult but crucial.
Governments also need to make sure that the process of change works for everyone,
including vulnerable communities and those whose livelihoods are affected by changes infuels and technologies. This requires an active effort to help poorer households to meet the
upfront costs of clean energy technologies and then benefit from their lower operating costs(section 1.6). As an example, a deep building retrofit – an integrated set of energy
conservation measures to significantly improve overall building performance – for an
average size home can cost four to nine months of income for Chinese or US households inthe 25th income percentile, compared with one to two months for households in the75th percentile.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Find ways for governments to work together
Above all, countries need to find ways to make this a common, unified effort. This is vital toexpand financial flows to developing economies, to accelerate clean energy technology
development, to ensure equitable and cost-effective clean energy supply, and to ensure that
effective safety nets are in place in case of disruptions. The pathway to net zero emissions ismuch more complex and costly in a low-trust, low-collaboration world (section 1.9).
48

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

1.5

Capital flows are gaining pace, but not reaching theareas of greatest need

After a period of stagnation in the latter part of the 2010s, energy investment is picking up.
The IEA estimates that USD 2.8 trillion is set to be invested in different parts of the energy
sector in 2023, up from USD 2.2 trillion five years ago. Almost all of the increase in the last
five years has been directed to clean energy and infrastructure, which now accounts for
USD 1.8 trillion in spending, compared with around USD 1 trillion on fossil fuels (IEA, 2023c).
All scenarios see a need for increased energy investment from historic levels. Total energy
investment rises to USD 3.2 trillion in 2030 in the STEPS, USD 3.8 trillion in the APS and
USD 4.7 trillion in the NZE Scenario. Achieving the transformation in the NZE Scenario
requires energy investment as a share of GDP to increase by around one percentage point
between 2023 and 2030, but the ratio falls back to the current level by 2050 (Figure 1.19).

Trillion USD (2022, MER)

Figure 1.19 ⊳ Investment trends as share of global GDP by scenario, 2023-2050
STEPS

5

APS

NZE

5%

4

4%

3

3%

2

2%

1

1%
2023

2030 2040 2050
Clean energy

2030 2040 2050
Fossil fuels

2030 2040 2050

Share of GDP (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

A large increase in clean energy investment is projected in the APS and NZE Scenario, butfossil fuel investment declines and investment requirements as a share of GDP fall after 2030

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

An increasing share of investment is directed to clean energy in all scenarios. In the STEPS,
the ratio of investment in fossil fuels to investment in clean energy technologies rises from
1:1.8 in 2023 to 1:2.5 in 2030. In the NZE Scenario, it rises to more than 1:10 in 2030. The
USD 2.5 trillion increase in clean energy investment in the NZE Scenario to 2030 is far larger
than the USD 0.6 trillion reduction in fossil fuel investment over this period.
Today’s higher interest rate environment has increased financing costs for energy, and thishas had a particularly large impact on relatively capital-intensive clean energy technologies.
Emerging market and developing economies in particular are struggling with rising financing
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

49

1

costs as higher base rates push up the cost of capital. A combination of policy reforms andde-risking measures, including revenue guarantees, first loss guarantees and currency
hedging, is needed to address real and perceived project and country risks.
The large increase in capital investment in the NZE Scenario is partly compensated for bylower operating costs that follow the shift away from fossil fuels towards capital-intensive
clean technologies. For fossil fuel importing countries, the shift towards clean energy also
improves trade balances and enhances energy security as the share of energy met throughdomestically sourced renewables starts to rise.

1.5.1

Fossil fuelsContinued investment in fossil fuels is essential in all of our scenarios. It is needed to meetincreases in demand over the period to 2030 in the STEPS and to avoid a precipitous decline
in supply that would far outstrip even the rapid declines in demand seen in the NZE Scenario.
In previous editions of the WEO, we warned of a risk of underinvestment in a STEPS-liketrajectory for demand, noting a gap between the amounts being invested in oil and gas andthe future requirements of this scenario. But the situation has evolved and this is no longer
the case. Oil and gas investment has risen in recent years, while the benchmark level ofinvestment needed in 2030 has come down with improvements in the capital efficiency ofthe oil and gas industry and with a decline in the projected level of oil and gas demand.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to some shortfalls in supply, but immediate issues have now
receded because Russian oil production and export has been more resilient than initiallyanticipated and because a wave of new supply projects, notably for LNG, have received the
go-ahead. As a result, the level of investment in oil and gas expected in 2023 is broadly
equivalent to the level needed in the STEPS in 2030, and the fears expressed by some large
resource-holders and certain oil and gas companies that the world is underinvesting in oil
and gas supply are no longer based on the latest technology and market trends.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The risks of overinvestment in fossil fuels have also evolved, but in the opposite direction.
Investment in oil and gas today is significantly higher than the amounts needed in the APS
and almost double what is needed in the NZE Scenario (Figure 1.20). This creates the clear
risk of locking in fossil fuel use and putting the 1.5 °C goal out of reach. Nonetheless, simply
cutting spending on oil and gas will not get the world on track for the NZE Scenario: the key
is to scale up investment in all aspects of a clean energy system to meet rising demand forenergy services in a sustainable way.
Both overinvestment and underinvestment in fossil fuels carry risks for secure and affordable
energy transitions. Any assessment of the implications of investment needs to take into
account who is investing and the efficiency of the spending, and policy makers need to be
mindful in particular of trends that could point to a future concentration in supply or otherenergy security risks. When it comes to the overall adequacy of spending, however, ouranalysis suggests that the risks are weighted more towards overinvestment than the
opposite.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Figure 1.20 ⊳ Average annual investment in fossil fuel supply historically
Billion USD (2022, MER)

and in 2030 by scenario

250

2015-2022
STEPS
APS
NZE

200
150
100
50

North
America

Asia
Pacific

MiddleEast

Eurasia

AfricaEuropeC&S
America
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Continued investment in fossil fuels is essential in each scenario, but variations in
declining demand mean far less is needed in the APS and NZE Scenario
Note: C & S America = Central and South America.

1.5.2

Clean energy

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The rise in clean energy spending in recent years has been concentrated in areas linked toclean electrification, in particular solar PV and other forms of renewable power, and end-use
electrification, especially EVs and heat pumps (Figure 1.21). If it is maintained, the rate at
which clean energy is growing would put aggregate global spending in 2030 on low-emissions
power, grids, storage and end-use electrification at levels consistent with the needs of the
APS. For some technologies, notably solar PV, it would go beyond the investment required
for the NZE Scenario. However, there are significant gaps in spending on other pillars of clean
energy transitions. In particular, investment in energy efficiency remains well short of whatis needed in the APS and NZE Scenario, despite rising recently. Investment in low-emissions
fuels is another area where more is needed: it is increasing, thanks to increased policy
support for areas like low-emissions hydrogen and CCUS, but from a very low base.
The increases in spending required to meet climate goals appear challenging but within reachfor advanced economies and China. Finance is available for clean energy projects, and manyof the main risks, including those related to permitting, now appear to be on the policy andregulatory side. However, other emerging market and developing economies need to triple
clean energy spending from 2022 levels by 2030 in the APS and increase them over five-times
in the NZE Scenario. Some of the largest gaps are in energy efficiency and end-use
decarbonisation. This reflects the fact that many lower income households and businesses
are struggling to manage the higher upfront costs of a number of clean energy technologies.
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings51

1

It also reflects the relative weakness of policy frameworks, institutional capacity andenforcement in many countries. The effect of high interest rates on financing costs is anothercomplicating factor.
Figure 1.21 ⊳ Investment in clean energy by scenario, 2030 and 2050
Advanced economies

2030

STEPS
APS
NZE

2050

2023e

STEPS
APS
NZE

2030

STEPS
APS
NZE

2050

2023e

STEPS
APS
NZE

Power
Clean energy supply
Energy efficiency
and end-use

Emerging market and developing economies

1

2
3
Trillion USD (2022, MER)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Clean energy investment gaps are largest in emerging market and developing economies,
especially for energy efficiency and end-use decarbonisation
Note: 2023e = estimated values for 2023.

Energy efficiency in buildings stands out as a laggard. The urban population is increasing
quickly in most developing economies, and ensuring that new buildings meet highperformance standards for efficient heating and cooling presents a huge opportunity to limit
future strains on energy supply and emissions. However, relatively few emerging market anddeveloping economies have energy efficiency building codes, with India being a notable
exception. Higher standards and stronger enforcement of standards for new buildings play a
critical role in reducing energy use in buildings in each of the scenarios.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

1.6

Transitions have to be affordable

The global energy crisis in 2022 catapulted costs and prices of energy to the forefront of thepolitical agenda, and countries are understandably concerned about the costs of thetransition. For energy users, a meaningful assessment of transition costs must start withquantifying the additional spending required on clean energy over conventional options: forexample, the cost premium to purchase an EV over an internal combustion engine (ICE)vehicle, or to install a heat pump instead of a natural gas boiler.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

For some applications and in some parts of the world, clean energy technologies are alreadycost competitive compared with fossil fuels, meaning net costs are zero or in some cases
negative, even without incentives and other support for upfront costs. In other cases, cost
gaps remain, and incentives will be crucial to accelerate the adoption of key clean energy
measures. These can be narrowed either by reducing the upfront and operating cost of clean
options, e.g. through technology and financial innovation or government intervention likeclean energy subsidies, or by changing pricing, tax and subsidy frameworks for fossil fuels,
e.g. by removing fossil fuel subsidies, or including CO2 costs or other environmental
surcharges.
Such policy interventions however must be carefully designed and targeted: political support
for the transition can dissipate quickly if households or industries bear too much upfront costwithout seeing tangible, near-term benefits. Support may also decrease if insufficientattention is paid to the distributional effects of clean energy support policies or if the fiscal
burden on governments is perceived as too high. In this section, insights from the scenarios
are used to explore these issues from the perspective of households, industry andgovernments.

1.6.1

Affordability for households

The energy crisis squeezed budgets as prices soared in 2022. Government interventions
moderated the extent to which higher commodity prices fed through to higher householdenergy bills, nevertheless there were increases in natural gas, petrol and retail electricity
prices in various parts of the world. Clean energy technologies such as EVs or heat pumps
helped shield consumers that had adopted them from fossil fuel price spikes, and energy
efficient buildings and appliances also provided some protection.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Heat pumps, energy efficiency retrofits and EVs – the three most important measures thathouseholds can adopt to accelerate clean energy transitions – are already nearly costcompetitive over their lifetime in the STEPS in advanced economies, even without incentives(Figure 1.22). Higher upfront costs remain a barrier to accelerated uptake, but in somemarkets even upfront costs are reaching price parity. Air-to-air heat pumps can be cheaper
than natural gas boilers in mature markets, for example, and electric cars sold today in China
cost less than their ICE equivalents on average, while more energy efficient air conditioners
and refrigerators do not necessarily come with higher upfront costs in markets across Asia,
Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. Even when clean energy technologies havehigher upfront costs than their fossil fuel equivalents, they frequently generate energy billsavings over their lifetime because of their lower operating costs. However, the lifetime costsof clean energy alternatives often remain higher in countries where fossil fuel subsidies havestill not been phased out.
Finding ways to manage the higher upfront costs of clean energy technologies will play a keyrole to accelerate their adoption, especially in low income households. Limited disposable
income and more constrained access to financing can put higher cost options out of reachfor a large share of the population. For example, installing a heat pump can cost up to eight
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

53

1

months of income for those with lower incomes (see Chapter 4, section 4.4). Recent interest
rate hikes have increased borrowing costs for consumers and are expected to contribute toa slowing of household energy efficiency measures if they persist: a factor that governments
will need to take into account in considering how to speed up the adoption of clean energy
technologies.
Figure 1.22 ⊳ Annual unsubsidised costs of clean energy versus conventional
USD (2022, MER)

options for households in advanced economies in the STEPS

4 000

Fuel including taxes
Investment

3 000
2 000
1 000

Retrofit No
retrofit

Heat Gas
pump boiler

Electric ICE
car
car
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Key clean energy technologies are already roughly cost competitive over their lifetime,
though upfront cost barriers remain for mostNotes: ICE = internal combustion engine. Assumed lifetimes are 25 years for retrofits, 16 years for heat pumps
and natural gas boilers/furnaces, and 12 years for electric and ICE cars. Costs are based on a representative
sample of households in Germany, Japan, United Kingdom and United States, with upfront costs financed at
an interest rate of 5%, starting in 2024 for five years. Costs do not reflect upfront subsidies.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Energy pricing plays a major role in determining whether clean energy technologies arecompetitive in terms of costs, and the fossil fuel subsidies that persist in a number ofcountries are clearly important in this context. In emerging market and developing
economies, where the bulk of fossil fuel subsidies exist today, phasing out these subsidies
would raise current household energy bills, in aggregate, by 70%. Fossil fuel subsidies distort
markets and are often ultimately paid by consumers through higher taxes or consumer
prices, especially in importing regions. The effects of subsidy removal on household spendingmeans that the phase-outs have to be planned carefully and accompanied by support for
those that need it most.
Reforming energy pricing remains essential though, not only to rectify price signals, but torealise the economy-wide energy cost optimisation. The economy-wide cost of supplying
energy used in households and for personal transport in emerging market and developing
54

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

economies was nearly USD 1.8 trillion in 2022, of which around USD 1 trillion was borne byconsumers. The rest represents fossil fuel subsidies borne by other entities, mostly
governments and state-owned enterprises, either in the form of reduced prices or forgone
revenue. In the NZE Scenario, the economy-wide costs of providing energy decline to
USD 1.6 trillion in 2030, 25% lower than in STEPS (Figure 1.23). However, the removal ofsubsidies and gradual introduction of carbon pricing mean that consumers would pay more
per unit of energy, while modern energy consumption increases in absolute terms despite
efficiency gains as rising incomes allow for larger residences and more appliances. In
addition, households need to shoulder the upfront costs of clean energy technologies.
Figure 1.23 ⊳ Economy-wide cost of household energy in emerging market
and developing economies

Billion USD (2022, MER)

Total energy cost

Investment in energy equipment

2 000
1 500
1 000
500

2022
Carbon pricing

2030
STEPS
Energy spending

2030
NZE
Subsidies

2022
Electrification

2030
2030
STEPS
NZE
Energy efficiency Other
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The total cost of supplying energy falls in the NZE Scenario, but vulnerable consumers
require support to manage subsidy phase-out and the upfront costs of clean energy
Notes: Subsidies = fossil fuel consumption subsidies based on the IEA price-gap approach. Energy spending
includes transport energy spending.

Targeted support could help reduce the impact of energy price reforms, and would be
especially important for low income households. Price reforms should also aim to end rate
structures that penalise electrification of end-uses and to incentivise the provision of timevarying electricity tariffs, for example to allow consumers to charge EVs overnight whenelectricity demand and prices are lower.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

1.6.2

Affordability for industry

Industry was more exposed to high commodity prices during the energy crisis thanhouseholds. Although some larger industries were able to draw on contracting and hedging
strategies to guard against commodity price volatility, in aggregate industry paid on average
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

551

70% more for natural gas in 2022 than they did in 2021, and around 25% more for electricity.
The protection provided for households by governments in many countries means thatindustry had to cope with much higher price increases than did households.
For energy-intensive industries, adopting clean energy technologies while maintaining
competitiveness is one of the defining challenges of the energy transition. Many efficiency
and clean energy measures in light industry are already cost effective, notably efficientelectric motors and heat pumps for low-temperature heat (IEA, 2022b). However, there arefewer cost-competitive clean alternatives for large, energy-intensive industries than forhouseholds and light industry, and many of them involve significant upfront capital
expenditure. Moreover, many of the clean energy technologies needed by energy-intensive
industries are at the demonstration phase.
The position is not straightforward even where new clean technologies are feasible. Many
energy-intensive products such as steel or chemicals are traded internationally incompetitive markets with margins that are too slim to absorb elevated production costs or
to encourage first movers to adopt new technologies. This means that there is an everpresent risk of industrial relocation if environmental regulations or energy prices put firms ininternational markets at a competitive disadvantage. Relocation of businesses in thesecircumstances to jurisdictions where such regulations are not imposed defeats the purpose
for which the regulations were introduced, to say nothing of the damage done to theindustrial base in the country that sees the companies depart. This has prompted efforts toimplement carbon border adjustment measures and similar pricing schemes to level theplaying field and maintain the competitiveness of companies and sectors that adopt
decarbonising measures. Revenue from such price rectifying measures can be recycled tohelp manage the higher material input costs to businesses, which eventually reach the end
consumer through higher prices. Industry-led initiatives, such as the First Mover Coalition
Steel Commitment, and international agreements on collaboration on industry
decarbonisations, like the Glasgow Breakthrough Agenda, can also play a useful role.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In the NZE Scenario, industry spending on energy reaches USD 4.3 trillion in 2030, around
30% more than in the STEPS, even though demand is moderated by material and energy
efficiency improvements. The higher costs are due to novel processes in energy-intensive
industry, which in many cases have higher input energy costs, and also to increased carbon
prices and the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies.
Pricing emissions from industry remains important to stimulate the switch to clean energy
because it helps to improve the cost competitiveness of clean energy technologies and boost
their adoption. For instance, carbon pricing and subsidy reform raise the production costs
for conventional steel in the NZE Scenario by 2030 and thereby narrow the cost gap withelectrolytic hydrogen-based production routes. Nonetheless, electrolytic hydrogen-based
steel is still at a premium. In some cases, and especially those where there is easy access toplentiful renewable sources of energy, the gap can be closed by 2030 (Figure 1.24). In othercases, government support is likely to be necessary, not least to help create demand for nearzero emissions steel, for example through public procurement. Some important steel making
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

regions (such as Europe, Japan and Korea) might require subsidies for hydrogen to be costcompetitive globally.

1

Figure 1.24 ⊳ Cost of producing steel using conventional methods
USD per tonne of steel

compared to 100% electrolytic hydrogen by scenario, 2030

1 000
800
600
400
200
EuropeSTEPS

NZEAdvanced
Asia

North
America

Latin
America

100% electrolytic hydrogen-based production

Developing
Asia
Typical current cost
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Carbon pricing and fossil fuel subsidy phase out in the NZE Scenario raise the cost of steel
production, bringing it closer to the cost of electrolytic hydrogen steel production.
Notes: Cost does not include scrap-based production. See Annex C for regional definitions.

1.6.3

Affordability for governments

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Governments need to take urgent action to tackle climate change. Yet, many countries,
especially emerging market and developing economies, are grappling with increased debt,
inflation and uncertain growth prospects. There are multiple demands on public budgets toaddress development needs, and so governments must design fiscally responsible policies
that strike a balance between spending and revenue-based measures (IMF, 2023).
In the NZE Scenario, governments are expected to finance around 30% of the USD 4.2 trillionof clean energy investment spending required in 2030. This includes through low cost loans,grants, direct support to households and industries, and concessional finance. An importantquestion is how governments finance this investment in a scenario where revenues fromtaxing the production and consumption of oil and gas are falling. In the NZE Scenario, public
revenue from taxing CO2 goes some way to offset declining oil and gas revenues, reductions
in fossil fuel subsidies provide some direct relief for governments, and taxes on the use ofelectricity shore up revenue from energy consumption (Figure 1.25). However, governments
around the world will make their own decisions about funding based on their specificpriorities and national circumstances.

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

57

Figure 1.25 ⊳ Government revenue from energy production and consumption
Billion USD (2022, MER)

for net oil and gas importing and exporting regions by scenario

3 500

Net importers

Net exporters
Fossil fuel consumption
subsidies
Oil and gas upstream
tax and royalties
Carbon pricing

2 500
1 500

Other consumption tax:
Fossil fuelsElectricity

500
0
-500

2018- STEPS NZE
2030
2022

2018- STEPS NZE
2030
2022
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Carbon pricing revenues and lower subsidy burdens offset lower fossil fuel rents in exporting
regions; for net importers, carbon revenue provides funds for clean energy initiatives

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

For net oil and gas exporters, economic growth in the NZE Scenario is underpinned byeconomic diversification rather than continued reliance on fuel exports and royalties. This
enlarges the taxable industrial and consumer base, and helps to minimise the transfer ofrents from producer to consumer countries that apply CO2 taxation. The lower level of fossil
fuel subsidy support in the NZE Scenario and taxes on consumer spending on electricity
together offset declining revenues from fossil fuel production, meaning that the net fiscal
position in the NZE Scenario in 2030 is comparable to that of STEPS. However, this shift
requires citizens and businesses to absorb more of the cost of energy directly through higher
upfront investment and higher annual spending on fuels in the near term. To the extent thatgovernments see tangible savings on the public balance sheet from fossil fuel subsidy
removal, these can be funnelled into clean energy support mechanisms or otherwise used tohelp to pay for climate change adaptation or other sustainable public spending initiatives,
such as social support schemes to help vulnerable consumers.

58

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

1.7

Risks on the road to a more electrified futureElectricity demand is projected to increase significantly in sectors ranging from industry andbuildings to transport. Yet, this trajectory is not set in stone, and there are a number of risks
that could hamper the deployment of key clean electricity technologies. One of the mostimportant risks to projected growth in electrification is the availability of critical minerals for
power generation technologies, electricity networks, battery storage and electric vehicles.
These trends and risks are discussed in detail in this Outlook and summarised in this section.
Figure 1.26 ⊳ Global electricity demand and share of electricity
TWhin selected applications, 2022 and 2050

10 000

100%

8 000

80%

6 000

60%

4 000

40%

2 000

20%
Hydrogenproduction

Intensiveindustries

Other
industry

Appliances
Coolingand cooking and heating

Electricity demand:
Electricity share in consumption (right axis):

2022
2022

2050:
2050

Light-duty
vehicles

STEPS
STEPS

APS
APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Electricity plays an increasingly important role in many end-uses

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: Hydrogen production is the electricity needed for its production and the share of electricity in totalenergy consumed in the process of producing hydrogen. Intensive industries (energy-intensive industries)
include iron and steel, chemicals, non‐metallic minerals, non‐ferrous metals, and paper, pulp and printing
industries. Other industry includes the remaining industrial branches, i.e. construction, mining and textiles.
Appliances and cooking includes stoves and ovens, refrigerators, washing and dishwashing machines, clothes
dryers, brown appliances (relatively light electronic appliances such as computers or televisions) and otherelectric appliances (excluding lighting, cooling, cleaning and desalination). Cooling and heating include space
and water heating, and space cooling in buildings.

The importance of electricity rises in many applications over the outlook period (Figure 1.26).
The biggest consumers of electricity today are the buildings and industry sectors, which
together account for over 90% of global electricity consumption. Appliances, cooking, coolingand heating account for most consumption in buildings, and electricity demand increases forall of them in our projections, especially in emerging market and developing economies.
Industrial electricity demand continues to rise as industrial output increases, mostly inemerging market and developing economies, and as policies to reduce emissions encourage
the electrification of industrial equipment. Transport is also a major contributor to projected
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings59

1electricity demand growth, especially in advanced economies. The number of EVs has
increased rapidly in recent years, with electric car sales surpassing 10 million in 2022. In the
STEPS, electric cars gain a market share of 38% in new car sales by 2030; in the APS, this rises
to nearly 45%.

1.7.1

Managing risks for rapid electrification

Technologies essential to clean electricity systems need to scale up rapidly for electrification
to proceed at the pace necessary to meet the energy and climate pledges made bygovernments around the world. However, there are risks that could delay or impede thedeployment of some of the key technologies that are needed. It is critical to have sufficient
policy support and enabling regulatory frameworks, efficient and timely permitting andcertification, while developing robust and resilient supply chains, from raw materials to
manufacturing and construction and skilled labour to ensuring access to financing. Reducing
the costs of financing and having predictability for revenues or cost savings are also
important for rapid electrification. Each technology has its unique risk profile, which may
threaten its role in clean electrification (Table 1.1). Progress in one technology may dependon progress in others. The lower these risks are across the board, the better the chance todeliver secure and affordable transitions, calling on governments and industry to take action.
Table 1.1 ⊳Primary risks associated with key clean electrification
technologies
Wind

Solar PV Nuclear

Battery Demandstorage response

Grids

Electric
Heatvehicles pumps

Regulatory and policy risks
Regulatory frameworks
Policy support

MediumLow

Medium Medium

High

Low

Low

Medium

Low

High

Low

Low

Low

High

Low

Low

High

Medium

Low

Low

High

Low

Medium

High

Low

Low

Low

Low

MediumLow

MediumPermitting and certification Medium Medium

Medium Medium Medium

Supply chain risks
Critical minerals

High

MediumManufacturing

High

Low

Skilled labour

Medium Medium

Medium Medium
High

Low

Low

High

Low

High

Financial risks
Costs of financing

High

MediumHigh

MediumRevenue and savings
predictability

MediumLow

Low

Medium Medium

Low

Low

Low

High

Low

Medium Medium Medium

High

Low

MediumIEA. CC BY 4.0.

Overall risks

Medium Medium

Note: Grids refers to electricity networks, including transmission and distribution.

60

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Regulatory and policy risks include regulatory barriers, inadequate policy support, and slow
planning and permitting. Regulatory barriers can inhibit the deployment of technologies,
either directly or by closing off potential business cases that developers could pursue in amore supportive or effective regulatory environment. Demand response, a potential key
source of power system flexibility in the future is a good example (see Chapter 4). In manymarkets today, consumers have little incentive to be responsive because short-term pricesignals from electricity markets are not transmitted to them. A lack of sufficient andcontinuous policy support increases investor uncertainty, and the sudden withdrawal ofpolicy support can cause nascent markets to crash, as experience has shown with solar PV
and wind power in several markets over the past 15 years. Lengthy certification andpermitting processes slow deployment and raise costs, as seen in the wind industry (IEA,
2023b), in the construction of new nuclear power plants (IEA, 2022c) and in the expansion of
power grids (IEA, 2023d).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

There are further potential sources of risk along the supply chain of clean energy
technologies. Some relate to the fact that both the supply of critical minerals and the
manufacture of solar modules and other key goods are dominated by a small number ofcountries (section 1.9). Others stem from the danger that demand will outpace the scaling
up of mining, processing and manufacturing capacity along the supply chain, pushing up costs
and constraining clean energy transitions. In 2021 and 2022, for example, higher input prices
for critical minerals, semiconductors and bulk materials resulted in price increases for key
clean energy technologies (IEA, 2023c). Another set of risk arises from the need for skilled
labour across the various links of clean energy supply chains. Tight labour markets and ashortage of skilled labour have recently contributed to disruptions and project delays in partsof the electricity sector, most notably for offshore wind (IEA, 2022d). Shortages of workers
with specific skills are also slowing the expansion of power grids, the construction of new
nuclear power plants and the installation of heat pumps (IEA, 2022b). The lack of skilled
labour in some sectors underlines the need for collaboration and investment in educationand training programmes to develop a skilled workforce capable of supporting theconstruction, and operation and maintenance of key clean electricity technologies.
Financing risks also need to be addressed, including those that relate to the cost of obtaining
finance, to the difficulty of predicting future revenues when new technologies enter themarket, and to market instability. Long-term contracting can help to reduce price uncertainty
for developers of clean electricity projects, and high quality, high reliability products andcomponents can help to reduce the risk of poor performance. Financing costs for clean
energy projects have recently been driven up significantly by rising interest rates in markets
around the world, in particular in emerging market and developing economies (IEA, 2023c).
Increases in financing costs have the biggest impact on large-scale projects involving capitalintensive technologies such as offshore wind, grids or new nuclear power plants, but risinginterest rates also affect consumers that rely on credit to finance an EV or the installation ofa heat pump. The progress of electrification will depend on reducing the cost and improving
the availability of capital. This is of particular importance for emerging market andChapter 1 | Overview and key findings611developing economies, many of which are currently struggling to raise the capital needed tofinance their transitions (IEA, 2021a).
It is important to highlight that these risks are not isolated from one another but are often
interdependent. A lack of policy support can, for example, make a project less bankable
which raises financing costs. Permitting delays also raise financing costs, while the poorer
than expected performance of an asset will depress revenue or raise maintenance costs.
Disruptions at one stage of the supply chain can feed through to other technologies, sectors
and markets. Poor progress for one technology can also negatively affect others. Delays inextending and reinforcing power grids, for example, can also slow the deployment of
renewables, heat pumps and EVs. Lowering risks across the board is vital, whether those risks
relate to regulation and policy, clean electricity supply chains, the availability of skilled labouror access to finance. This highlights the need for a holistic approach that ensures every
technology is able to play its role in delivering secure and cost-effective electrification.

1.7.2

Critical minerals underpin electrification

The transformation of the electricity system and increasing electrification leads to risingdemand for critical minerals. The size of the market for key critical minerals used in theenergy sector has doubled over the past five years and growth is expected to pick up further(IEA, 2023e). As clean energy transitions accelerate, the focus will shift from the supply of
traditional fuels to the supply of critical minerals (see Chapter 4). However, the mining andprocessing of certain critical minerals is heavily concentrated geographically, creating asecurity of supply risk. Long lead times for mines and the associated infrastructure mean thatscaling up supplies takes time, raising the risk of supply bottlenecks. Mitigating these risks
requires governments and industry to establish a more diversified network of international
producer-consumer relationships, while seeking to ensure that supplies scale up fast enoughto meet growing demand.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Copper, rare earth elements, silicon and various battery metals, notably lithium, are criticalminerals for electrification. Copper is used extensively in electricity transmission anddistribution grids, but its conductive properties also make it an essential component for lowemissions power generation technologies such as solar PV modules, wind turbines andbatteries. Rare earth elements (REEs) are used to manufacture the permanent magnets forthe motors of direct drive and hybrid wind turbines. Silicon is used to manufacture solar
panels. As the deployment of variable renewable technologies increases, the need forstorage technologies to complement renewable electricity rises rapidly. Lithium-ion batteries
dominate in EVs and are the fastest growing electricity storage technology in the world,
making lithium indispensable for electrification (IEA, 2021b).
In terms of absolute volumes, copper dominates total demand for critical minerals in clean
energy applications, mostly for use in the electricity sector: current demand of around 6 Mt
per year rises to 11 Mt by 2030 in the STEPS and 12 Mt in the APS. However, lithium sees thebiggest percentage increase: demand for lithium for battery storage systems and EVs rises
62International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

more than fivefold from its current level by 2030 in the STEPS and nearly sevenfold by 2030
in the APS. Demand for copper, silicon and REEs nearly doubles to 2030 in the STEPS andrises almost 2.5-fold in the APS (Figure 1.27).
Figure 1.27 ⊳ Demand for critical minerals for selected clean electricity supply
and electrification technologies in the APS, 2022 and 2030

Copper (Mt)

15

5

Silicon (Mt)

Rare earth elements (kt)
500
50

12

4

40

400

9

3

30

300

6

2

20

200

3

1

10

100

2022
Wind

2030

Solar PV

2022

2030

Other low-emissions generation

Lithium (kt)

2022

2030

2022

Grids

Battery storage

Electric vehicles

2030

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Electrification raises demand for key critical minerals by two- to seven-times by 2030
Notes: Mt = million tonnes; kt = kilotonnes. Battery storage is limited to utility-scale systems.

This underlines that scaling up critical minerals supplies while making them more secure is a
key challenge. More diverse and resilient critical mineral supply chains are an essential
element. These need not just to deliver a reliable supply of critical minerals but also to apply
environmental, social and governance standards to their production and processing. Clear
policy commitments to scale up clean energy technologies are essential to stimulate theinvestments that are needed.

1.8

A new, lower carbon pathway for emerging market
and developing economies is taking shape

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Emerging market and developing economies face a diverse set of development challenges
that will largely shape their regional energy and emissions pathways, and that therefore haveglobal implications. Some 64% of the world population lives in emerging market anddeveloping economies other than China. These countries have an average per capita incomethat is around one-fifth of the average in advanced economies, and they lag on various
socio-economic and energy indicators (Figure 1.28).

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

63

1Urbanisation

100%

45

75%

30

50%

15

25%

Advanced economies

160

Air conditioner
ownership120
80

Cars per 1 000 people

60

Per capita
incomeACs per 100 households

Thousand USD (2022, PPP)

Figure 1.28 ⊳ Selected socioeconomic indicators, 2022

40

China

600

Car
ownership

450
300
150

Other EMDEIEA. CC BY 4.0.

Emerging market and developing economies other than China significantly
trail advanced economies on key socioeconomic indicators
Note: PPP= purchasing power parity; ACs = air conditioners; EMDE = emerging market and developing
economies.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The emerging market and developing economies other than China include a diverse range ofcountries. Most face energy-related development challenges that broadly include:

To provide universal energy access to those who do not have electricity (775 million
people in emerging market and developing economies other than China) and those wholack access to clean cooking fuels and equipment (2 billion people in the same group).
UN Sustainable Development Goal-7 includes a target for the achievement of universal
energy access by 2030, and this is currently off track.

To facilitate further industrialisation and the modernisation of agriculture, both of which
require access to affordable and secure supplies of technologies and energy. The
economic output from industry in emerging market and developing economies(excluding China) grows by over 30% by 2030, and more than doubles by 2050. The
corresponding energy demand from industry rises by over 20% by 2030 and 65% by 2050
in the STEPS.



To deliver planned urban growth with efficient modern housing that is well served bypublic transport. The urbanisation rate, built space per capita, air conditioner ownershipand car ownership rates in emerging market and developing economies other thanChina are far lower than in advanced economies. By 2050, an additional 1.8 billion
people will be living in urban areas in emerging market and developing economies(excluding China), contributing to a doubling of residential building space and a sharp
rise in urban transport demand.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023



To play a bigger part in global energy supply chains, including through domestic clean
energy technology manufacturing. Fossil fuel supply, clean energy manufacturing,critical mineral production and refining capacities remain geographically concentrated
to varying degrees. Emerging market and developing economies today are particularly
vulnerable to supply shocks while wealthier importers are better placed financially tosecure their energy and technology needs.
To reduce environmental pollutants from energy operations. Air pollution from energy
use is a major concern, leading to over 5 million premature deaths every year inemerging market and developing economies (excluding China).

The choices countries make to address these development challenges and their emissions
reduction commitments will together shape their future energy policy choices. Historically,
economic development has been fuelled by carbon-intensive technologies and sources ofenergy derived from fossil fuels, but there are several factors that now point to the possibilityof a markedly different development pathway for emerging market and developing
economies.
First, as discussed in this report, clean energy technology costs have been falling across a
broad suite of applications worldwide from clean electricity generation to clean mobility,
energy storage and energy efficiency. In some cases, such as electricity generation, clean
technologies are now the lowest cost options in most parts of the world. As a result, they
now offer promising avenues for energy and industrial development. However, there arebarriers that need to be overcome for emerging market and developing economies to makethe most of these opportunities. These are often linked to risks that could call into question
the bankability of projects in these economies. They include regulatory and policy risks suchas inconsistent tariff regimes, off-taker risks such as the financial weakness of power
distribution companies, and land acquisition risks such as permitting issues. Risk mitigation
through appropriate policy making and regulation has a key role to play in managing theserisks, together with financial innovation.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Second, the acceleration of renewable energy deployment is being coupled with increasing
electrification of economic activity, even in developing economies. In the past five years, overhalf of the capacity additions for electricity generation in the emerging market anddeveloping economies other than China are renewables based. This marks a significant
acceleration compared to the previous decade, when renewables accounted for around aquarter of capacity additions; further acceleration is likely in the future. In the STEPS, nearly
two-thirds of new capacity additions to 2030 are renewables. By 2050, electricity generationfrom renewables increases fivefold in the STEPS, and over ten-fold in APS by 2050
(Figure 1.29).
Increasing deployment of renewables is being accompanied in emerging market anddeveloping economies by increased electrification, with expanding use of EVs in transport,
electric furnaces and electrochemical processes in industry, electric cooking appliances in thebuildings sector, and electric farm equipment such as solar pumps in agriculture. In the
STEPS, the share of electricity in total final energy consumption among the emerging market
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

65

1and developing economies other than China increases from 15% to nearly 25% by 2050, whilein the APS it reaches almost 35% in the same period. Early signs of increased electrification
are already apparent. In India, for example, over half of three-wheel vehicle sales are now
electric, and in South Africa electricity now meets 80% of residential cooking energy demand.
Other countries look set to emulate these examples: for example, the share of energy
demand for cooking met by electricity in emerging market and developing economies nearly
doubles by 2050 in the APS.
Figure 1.29 ⊳ Share of renewables in power generation and electricity in final
energy consumption by region and scenario, 2022-2050

Share of renewables in electricity generation

Share of electricity in final consumption

100%
75%
50%
25%

2022

2030

2040

Advanced economies

2050

2022

EMDE excluding China

2030

2040
STEPS

2050
APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Share of renewables in power generation andelectrification of economies increase in all regions

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: EMDE = emerging market and developing economies.

Third, high fossil fuel import dependence, fuel price volatility and large subsidy burdens areconcerns shared by many importing countries; clean energy technologies offer scope toreduce them. While the scaling up of clean energy also necessitates imports due to theconcentration of supply chains, the use of clean energy reduces risks from price volatility
once the necessary infrastructure is in place. All countries are affected by fuel price volatility,
but countries with lower incomes suffer acutely more as a result of their limited fiscal room
to manoeuvre and less affordability among consumers. Over the past decade, emerging
market and developing countries have cumulatively spent USD 3.7 trillion on oil, natural gas,and coal subsidies (USD 3.2 trillion excluding China). Annual subsidies have fluctuatedsignificantly with movements in energy prices, with subsides nearly four-times higher in 2022
than in 2016, and the unpredictable nature of fuel prices has made fiscal planning difficult.
In the APS, USD 3.8 trillion is invested in clean energy infrastructure and equipment
cumulatively to 2030 to keep emerging market and developing economies (other than China)
on the pathway to meet long-term clean energy ambitions, and these investments displacefossil fuel demand, therefore reducing exposure to price volatility and supply shocks.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

As well, there is increasing recognition of the potential for clean energy technology
manufacturing and critical mineral extraction and refining to act as engines of economic andemployment growth. As efforts to create a new global clean energy economy gain
momentum, developing countries risk missing out on emerging economic opportunities.
Some emerging market and developing countries are already taking initial steps to expand
their involvement in the unfolding new clean energy economy. For example, the Indonesia
Battery Corporation was established by the government in 2021 to help the country becomea leading supplier of EV batteries, with a target to manufacture 140 gigawatt-hour (GWh)battery capacity by 2030. Indonesia is the world’s largest producer of nickel, and it aims tomove up the value chain of mineral supplies. India implemented the Production Linked
Incentives programme to incentivise the production of solar PV modules and batteries. It
aims to stimulate greenfield manufacturing capacity and to create new jobs.
Figure 1.30 ⊳ Fossil fuel and CO2 emissions intensity of GDP by region and3.6

Fossil fuel intensity of GDP

t CO₂ per million USD (2022, PPP)GJ per thousand USD (2022, PPP)

scenario, 2022-2050

2.7
1.8
0.9

2022

2030

2040

Advanced economies

2050

240

CO₂ emissions intensity of GDP

180
120
60

2022

EMDE excluding China

2030
STEPS

2040

2050
APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Fossil fuel and CO2 emissions intensities in emerging market and developing economies
other than China fall by half in the STEPS and by over 70% in the APS

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: GJ = gigajoule; PPP = purchasing power parity; t CO2 = tonne of carbon dioxide; EMDE = emerging market
and developing economies.

As a result of these and other related factors, notably efficiency improvements, all global
regions see increasing use of clean energy technologies and reductions in the fossil fuelenergy and emissions intensity of GDP across the IEA scenarios. This implies that lower levelsof fossil fuel supplies are needed over time to generate the same amount of economic
output, and that a given level of economic output is associated with falling emissions overtime. There are steep declines in both these metrics across regions (Figure 1.30). Both fossil
fuel and CO2 emissions intensities fall by half in the STEPS by 2050, and by over 70% in the
APS in emerging market and developing economies (other than China). As a result, even as
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

67

1GDP nearly triples by 2050 in this group, aggregate annual CO2 emissions rise by only aquarter in the STEPS and fall by 30% in the APS.
Emerging market and developing countries are not bound to track the kind of emissions
intensive pathways that have been followed in the past. However, the degree to which suchcountries are able to chart alternate pathways depends on the amount of investment in clean
energy and efficiency technologies that they are able to attract, and on the ability ofcountries and households to pay upfront clean energy infrastructure costs. Effective policies
and regulatory frameworks will be important in this context, as will the development ofdomestic financial markets and the availability of international finance.

1.9

Geopolitical tensions undermine energy security andprospects for rapid, affordable transitions

Geopolitics and energy have been intertwined throughout the fossil fuel era: importers havecome to depend on exporters for supplies, and exporters have similarly come to depend on
importers for revenue. Political and commercial relationships between producers andconsumers have ebbed and flowed as a way to manage these dependencies, but risks havealso been mitigated by open international energy markets, initially for oil, more recently also
for natural gas. Well-functioning markets, alongside safety nets such as spare capacity heldby key producers and the IEA co-ordinated system of oil stocks, have helped countries tomanage shifts in supply and demand: they have also provided a buffer against disruptions
caused by extreme weather or geopolitical events. Trade provides access to a large balancing
area to manage shifts in supply or demand: this insight is also becoming increasingly valuable
for electricity security in interconnected and renewables-rich markets.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine provided a stern test of the resilience of today’s energy system
to geopolitical shocks. The price spikes that followed cuts to gas supply from Russia werecertainly very damaging, but the attempt by Russia to use gas supply for political leverage
failed. Russia has lost its largest customer, shredded its reputation as a reliable exporter andcreated incentives for consumers to consider alternatives to natural gas. This is reflected in
our projections: the global energy crisis has prompted a significant downward revision tonatural gas demand in the STEPS and to Russian gas exports (section 1.10).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The recent crisis has shown how geopolitical events can affect the energy sector. However,
the relationship works both ways: changes in energy markets can also shape geopolitics. As
energy transitions proceed, they shift demand across fuels and sources of electricity in waysthat eventually loosen the grip of fossil fuel resource-holders. The process will be a long one
and fossil fuel producers remain influential. Indeed, the share of the Organization of Oil
Exporting Countries (OPEC) in global supply rises over time in our NZE Scenario as demand
falls. But in exercising this influence they reduce it, because consumers have an increasing
range of mature clean energy options that become more attractive as a result.
Energy transitions do not, however, mean an end to geopolitical risks. Traditional risks
around fossil fuel supply evolve, but they do not disappear. Transitions could be destabilising
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

for fragile producing states that fail to diversify away from high dependence on hydrocarbon
revenues. In the meantime, new geopolitical risks and dependencies arise in clean energy
supply chains (Bordoff and O’Sullivan, 2023). And both traditional and new security risks areworsened in a more fragmented international system characterised by rivalries and low cooperation.
The world can ill afford these tensions if it wants to get on track to limit global warming to
1.5 °C. As the acceleration in clean energy deployment in recent years showed, periods of
disruption and high fossil fuel prices can give additional momentum to transitions. But this isa very costly way to change the system. The latest numbers from the IEA Government Energy
Spending Tracker show that over USD 1.3 trillion has been allocated by governments forclean energy investment support since 2020 (IEA, 2023f). However, since the start of theenergy crisis, governments have also allocated some USD 900 billion to short-term consumer
affordability measures. In emerging market and developing economies, governments havededicated more to consumer affordability measures (USD 140 billion) than to clean energy
investment support (USD 90 billion). Moving from crisis to crisis is no way to manage theclean energy transition.
There is limited scope to incorporate geopolitical shocks into our long-term Outlook scenario
structure, given that their effects and duration are by their nature unpredictable.
Nonetheless, the baseline expectation is for a future mixture of rivalry and collaboration.
Elements of geopolitics come through in the STEPS, especially in relation to the position of
Russia in international energy trade, but the hope is that co-operation on clean energy canbe ringfenced from broader geopolitical tensions so as to allow rapid progress towards global
net zero emissions in line with the NZE Scenario, which depends on co-operation between
countries: without this, its objectives fall out of reach.
The next section explores how the energy sector might fare in a world that is lower on trust
and lower on co-operation than our baseline expectations. It considers in particular how
geopolitical tensions might affect the outlook both for clean energy and for fossil fuels.

1.9.1

Clean energy in a low-trust world

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Opportunities to produce low-emissions energy cost competitively are far more widelydistributed around the world than is the case for fossil fuels. It would therefore be natural toassume that, as a largely domestic source of energy, renewables would fare better in a more
fragmented international context, especially in countries that rely on imported fuels. Theenergy crisis in 2022 provides supporting evidence for this, with deployment of renewable
power and improvements in efficiency in the European Union covering nearly 20 bcm or 25%of the supply gap left by Russia’s actions. Domestically produced clean energy can clearly be
an asset at times of geopolitical stress.
However, while renewable resources are widely distributed, the same is not true for clean
energy supply chains, which are heavily concentrated. IEA analysis from the most recent
Energy Technology Perspectives 2023 brings out clearly that the three largest producer
countries account for at least 70% of manufacturing capacity for key mass-manufactured
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

69

1technologies – wind, batteries, electrolysers, solar panels and heat pumps – with China
dominant in each (IEA, 2023g). For critical minerals, resources are spread quite widely but
current mining activities are highly concentrated, much more so than is the case for fossil
fuel supply (Figure 1.31). China has invested heavily in midstream refining and processing
and has a very strong position in both.
Figure 1.31 ⊳ Average market size and level of geographical concentration
Market size (billion USD)

for extraction of selected commodities, 2020-2022

10 000Oil

1 000

Natural gas

Copper100

Nickel101

CobaltLithium

Rare earth
elements
0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Platinum

90% 100%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Market share by top-three producer countries
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Markets for critical minerals are smaller and more concentrated
than those for traditional hydrocarbon resources

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Overall, China’s investment in clean energy supply chains has helped bring down costs
worldwide, with multiple benefits for clean energy transitions. There is also a distinction to
be made between energy security hazards in fuel markets (which affect all consumers using
the fuel) and those in clean energy supply chains (which affect only the flow of new
manufactured products). Nonetheless, one of the clearest lessons from the history of theenergy sector still stands: high reliance on single countries, companies or trade routes makes
the system vulnerable to unexpected events, be they related to the policy choices of anindividual country, natural disasters, technical failures or company decisions. These risks areinevitably heightened at times of geopolitical stress.
A low-trust world could create incentives to rely more on domestically produced clean
energy, but these incentives could be undercut in practice by a reluctance to rely heavily on
imported technologies, or shaped by a preference for those technologies that require thefewest imported elements, or those where the risks of supply chain disruptions seem lowest.
Supply of critical minerals could be a particular pressure point, since now there are relatively
few buffers in place to cope with interruptions or disruptions, markets are thinly traded andoften opaque, and restrictions on trade have risen in recent years.
70

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Given the high degree of concentration in energy supply chains, there are justifiable reasonsfor countries to seek to increase the resilience of clean energy supply chains throughindustrial policies and support for broader supply diversity. The risk in a low-trust world isthat this process could tip over into much more widespread barriers to trade as countries
prioritise autonomy over managed dependence, and in so doing add costs, complexity andtime to the process of change. Barriers to trade of this kind would also limit the scope forcost-effective development of new clean technology markets, which depend heavily ontechnology learning and collaborations across national borders. Without co-operation, somecountries – especially emerging market and developing economies – could struggle to gain astake in the new clean energy economy, and some of the clean technology markets that areneeded for a net zero emissions energy system could take much longer to gain momentum,
or fail to take off at all.

1.9.2

Fossil fuels in a low-trust world

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East underscore the potential
risks that continue to face oil and gas supply. The STEPS projections highlight that many
emerging market and developing economies, notably in Asia, see a significant increase in oil
and gas imports both in terms of volume and cost (Figure 1.32). A low-trust world would
create incentives to limit these vulnerabilities in favour of resources that are available
domestically. As noted, this could create some upside for clean energy, with caveats. But it
could also keep coal in the mix for longer as well.
Where resources are available, importing countries could also try to manage vulnerabilities
by prioritising domestic production of oil and gas, including by greenlighting new projects.
While this might potentially provide some support at the margin, it is unlikely to deliver
additional production quickly (with the exception of some short-cycle developments such as
shale). Historically it has taken well over ten years on average for a conventional project tomove from licensing to first production. Moreover, such an approach would come with a riskof pushing global production beyond the 1.5 °C threshold, and of new projects becoming
loss-making if the world gets on track to keep global warming below 1.5 °C.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The outlook for natural gas would face additional uncertainties in a world of high geopoliticaltensions. A significant new wave of LNG export facilities is under construction: 250 bcm per
year of liquefaction capacity is scheduled to start operation by the end of 2030, which isequivalent to almost half of global LNG supply in 2022. The United States and Qatar accountfor 60% of the additional LNG, with Asia the intended market: China alone has contracted foran additional 85 bcm of gas since 2022. Gas markets have become increasingly deep andliquid in recent years, a development that has underpinned investor confidence and anenhanced ability to respond to shocks. A reversal of this trend would reduce optionality andsecurity.
Oil markets too could see trade being further determined by political considerations andrelationships, as producers attempt to tie in consumers and buyers seek more security. This
would come at a cost to efficiency, and could lock in fossil fuel use and related CO2 emissions.
Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

711Figure 1.32 ⊳ Value of domestic production and import bills for fossil fuels in

Billion USD (2022, MER)

emerging market and developing economies in Asia excluding
China by scenario, 2010-2050
STEPS

800

APS

400
0
-400
-800
2010

2020

2030

2040

Net imports:
Domestic production:

2050 2010

2020

Coal
Coal

Natural gas
Natural gas

2030

2040

2050

Oil
Oil
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Increasing fossil fuel import bills in developing Asian economies imply
significant vulnerability to global energy price and market volatility

1.9.3

Risks of new dividing lines

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

There are major hazards for the energy outlook in a more fragmented and divided world.
Such a world could well reduce the ability of countries to tackle climate change, to ensure
energy security and to respond to a host of other energy-related challenges. A particular risk
is that dividing lines that disadvantage emerging market and developing economies could
become entrenched, constraining their ability to access finance and to participate in global
supply chains. Competition to secure critical mineral supplies could also mitigate against thepush to raise standards, and could result in more tacit acceptance of the kind of poor labour
practices and exploitative resource extraction policies that have impoverished countries in
the past.
Without international co-operation, the chances of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C recede
over the horizon and out of sight. The world needs to embrace a rules-based trading system
if energy transitions are to succeed. It will not be possible to expand clean energy in line with
the NZE Scenario if countries prioritise self-sufficiency over integration and trade. Nor will it
be possible to prevent the road ahead from looking increasingly bumpy and perilous from anenergy security perspective if countries start to lose the benefits of interconnected markets
as a way of coping with shifts in supply and demand and of riding out unexpected shocks. In
these circumstances, a worsening climate could itself pose an increasingly significant threat
in the coming decades, widening any fractures in international affairs in the process. This all
points to the vital importance of redoubling collaboration and co-operation, not retreatingfrom it.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

1.10 As the facts change, so do our projections
The STEPS illustrates the direction in which current policy settings are steering the energy
sector based on a sector-by-sector assessment of existing policies and announcements. This
trajectory is updated on an annual basis in line with changes in policy settings, market
conditions and technology developments, and it is instructive to look at how the projections
have evolved over time. Any company or policy maker considering our Outlook needs to bearin mind the dynamic nature of the scenario: for example, if a company chooses to align its
investments with STEPS, it needs to be aware that this is a moving target.
Figure 1.33 ⊳ Differences in global total energy demand by fuel and sector in
EJ

the WEO-2023-STEPS compared to the WEO-2022-STEPS, 2030

6

Coal

Renewables

Oil

Electricity
Other
Other transport
Cars
Other industry
Iron and steel, cement
Power
Net change

3

0

-3

-6
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In this Outlook, the power sector taps significantly more renewables anduses less coal than in the WEO-2022-STEPS, plus road transport is electrified faster

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Changes in starting conditions since the World Energy Outlook-2022 (WEO-2022) have had amaterial impact on the outlook for energy (Figure 1.33). As discussed in section 1.1, this 2023
Outlook is the first time that a scenario based on existing policy settings sees a peak indemand for each of the fossil fuels before 2030. Some of the key changes in this Outlook
since the WEO-2022 are:

Faster growth in electric car sales. In this Outlook, the STEPS projections show more than
220 million electric passenger cars on the road in 2030, a 20% increase on the numberin the WEO-2022. This increase cuts oil demand in 2030 by around 1 mb/d and boosts
electricity demand from road transport by 165 TWh.



Continued momentum in renewables deployment. Higher interest rates and near-term
supply chain challenges create difficulties for some new projects, but overall our

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

73

1

projections show further acceleration in deployment. Solar PV in particular rises more
quickly than in the WEO-2022, reflecting strengthened policies in a number of key
markets and ample solar PV manufacturing capacity (section 1.3). This results in lower
generation from coal and natural gas.
Slower economic growth and construction activity in China. This has an impact on the
projections for all fuels, but it has a particular effect on coal demand in China, which isnearly 100 Mtce lower in 2030 than in the WEO-2022, with large reductions in power
and the steel and cement sectors (section 1.2).

Year-on-year revisions are important, but it is also useful to take a look at how projections
have evolved over a longer timeframe. Some of the largest changes in the STEPS over thelast five years have been in solar PV and wind generation and, particularly since the global
energy crisis, in natural gas demand. These are the focus of the following sections. We also
include insights on how the technology mix to reach net zero emissions by 2050 has evolvedin the NZE Scenario since it was introduced in 2021 (Box 1.3).
Box 1.3 ⊳How does the 2023 NZE Scenario differ from the 2021 version?

The updated Net Zero by 2050 Roadmap, released by the IEA in September 2023,
achieves the same outcome as the original version from 2021 – limiting the rise in global
average temperatures to 1.5 °C – but the trajectory for emissions and the respective rolesof different fuels and technologies have changed (IEA, 2023b). This reflects a different
starting point for the scenario as well as bigger contributions from technologies that havemade good progress in recent years and smaller ones from those that have made more
limited progress.
Since 2021, demand for fossil fuels has risen. This partly reflects post-pandemic economic
growth and the effects of the global energy crisis, but it is also the result of a collective
failure to move more quickly to scale up clean energy investment in efficiency and supply.
This means that total energy demand, fossil fuel use and emissions in 2030 are higher
than in the 2021 version of the NZE Scenario.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Coal demand declines rapidly, but in 2030 it is nonetheless above the levels in the 2021
NZE Scenario. This reflects an attempt to provide a more manageable and equitable nearterm pathway for emerging market and developing economies, which dominate global
coal use, but it also stems in part from the energy security concerns around natural gas
sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This change means that the path to achieving
net zero emissions by 2050 in the 2023 NZE Scenario is a steeper one than in the 2021
version and requires more to be done after 2030, but the path remains open.
The balance of clean energy technologies used to achieve emissions reduction goals has
also shifted. Solar PV takes a more prominent role in the 2023 NZE Scenario, though
reductions in projected wind capacity additions mean that the combined 40% share ofwind and solar PV in total generation in 2030 is very similar to that projected in 2021.
74

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

This reflects the surge in solar PV installations and manufacturing capacity since the 2021
report. The rise in solar PV generation leads to a need for additional stationary battery
storage to ensure security of supply.
Electricity and electrification play even more prominent roles in the 2023 NZE Scenario
than they did in the 2021 version. This reflects a significant increase in EV sales andprogress in scaling up EV manufacturing supply chains. It also reflects accelerated
progress in heat pump deployment in buildings and rising market confidence intechnologies such as 100% electrolytic hydrogen-based direct reduced iron production.
Near-term deployment is slower for some technologies, notably wind, hydrogen andCCUS. This reflects supply chain constraints, delays in scaling up project pipelines andrelated infrastructure, and sluggish progress in the development of market frameworks
for less mature technologies. For some of these technologies, the downward revision isbased on recent investment trends from technology manufacturers compared withinvestment in other low-emissions alternatives. So, for example, the 2023 Roadmap
foresees a reduced role for hydrogen-fuelled trucks.
The outlook for natural gas in the 2023 NZE Scenario has also changed since the firstversion in 2021. In the 2021 Roadmap, natural gas use fell to 1 750 bcm in 2050; in this
Outlook, it falls to 920 bcm. Most of this 830 bcm difference in 2050 is because of lower
projected hydrogen production from natural gas with CCUS, with a larger role now
projected instead for hydrogen production via electrolysis.

1.10.1 Solar PV and wind generation

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The STEPS projections for solar PV and wind generation to 2030 have increased substantiallyin successive editions of the Outlook since 2019 (Figure 1.34). Four main factors have beenat play:

Policies: The number of countries with policies that support expansion of solar PV andwind has steadily risen, and now stands at over 140. At the same time, policy ambitions
and related support have been ratcheted up many times in major markets, including in
China, European Union, India, Japan and United States.



Cost reductions: Between 2010 and 2022, the levelised cost of electricity fell by about
90% for solar PV, 70% for onshore wind and 60% for offshore wind. Although there has
been a rise in costs in recent years (section 1.3) which has created difficulties inparticular for wind power in some advanced economies, these cost reductions havelargely followed anticipated learning rates linked to the scaling up of deployment andtechnology innovation. In general, policy support and cost reductions have created avirtuous cycle: increased policy support raised the level of deployment, which led to cost
reductions, and those cost reductions have led to additional deployment.

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

75

1



Manufacturing capacity and industrial policies: IEA projections now fully account fordevelopments in clean energy supply chains, which in some cases have far outpaced
actual deployment and created an opportunity for further rapid increases, notably forsolar PV (section 1.3).

Financing conditions: Cost of capital for solar PV and wind power is especially importantbecause upfront capital costs account for the majority of their lifetime costs. Tried andtested policy and regulatory frameworks have helped reduce financing costs byproviding operators with a high degree of revenue certainty, usually through long-term
contracts. Against this backdrop, today’s higher borrowing costs are a cause for concern
as they complicate project economics and could tilt cost calculations back towards(often polluting) technologies that have lower upfront costs but lock in long-term
expenditure for fuel.

These factors have been very positive overall for the expansion of wind power and solar PV,
and help to explain year-on-year increases in projected deployment. However, the growth inwind and solar PV generation to 2030 in the STEPS is far below the level needed to limit
warming to 1.5 °C, highlighting the urgent need for further measures to achieve the goals of
the NZE Scenario.
Figure 1.34 ⊳ Increase in solar PV and wind power capacity between 2022
Thousand GW

and 2030 in five editions of the World Energy Outlook

7

STEPS

NZE Scenario

WEO-2019 WEO-2020 WEO-2021 WEO-2022 WEO-2023

WEO-2021 WEO-2023

6
5
4
3
2
1

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Wind and solar PV projections ratcheted up as policy support increased, costs fell andmanufacturing expanded, yet more is needed to get on track for net zero emissions

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: WEO-2019 data is for the New Policies Scenario, the closest equivalent to the Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS).

76

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

1.10.2 Natural gas
The STEPS scenarios that were modelled until the WEO-2021 projected strong continued
increases in natural gas consumption (Figure 1.35). Upward revisions to renewables
gradually narrowed the space for natural gas to contribute to electricity demand growth,
resulting in downward revisions to demand levels, but the long-term picture still supported
continued growth to 2040 and beyond.
Figure 1.35 ⊳ Natural gas demand projections in the STEPS to 2040 in fivebcm

editions of the World Energy Outlook

5 500

WEO-2019
WEO-2020

5 000

WEO-2021

4 500

WEO-2022
WEO-2023

4 000
3 500
3 000
2010

2020

2030

2040
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Upward revisions to renewables have chipped away at long-term natural gas projections,but the sharpest reduction came in 2022 following the global energy crisis
Note: WEO-2019 data is for the New Policies Scenario, the closest equivalent to the Stated Policies Scenario(STEPS).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The events of 2022 – especially the Russian invasion of Ukraine – led to a major revision in
the outlook for natural gas. There was an immediate cut in exports to Europe, and confidence
around the world was shaken in the ability of natural gas to act as a reliable and affordable
fuel. As a result, natural gas demand in 2040 was cut by around 570 bcm (12% reduction) in
the STEPS published in the WEO-2022. Around half of this reduction was due to a faster moveaway from gas in advanced economies; the other half was the result of much slower
projected growth in emerging market and developing economies. Natural gas demand in
2040 has been adjusted down by a further 140 bcm in the STEPS in this Outlook. This mainlyreflects the upward revision to the outlook for renewables. Advanced economies, led by
Europe, account for around three-quarters of the overall downward revision in natural gas
demand.

Chapter 1 | Overview and key findings

77

1

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Demand for LNG in 2050 in this Outlook is nearly 15% lower than projected in the STEPS of
the WEO-2021. This is a smaller reduction than the near 20% downward revision in overall
natural gas demand between the WEO-2021 and this Outlook. But the large increase in newliquefaction projects approved for development in the intervening years means that planned
capacity is now sufficient to meet LNG demand in the STEPS to 2040, which is ten years later
than projected in the WEO-2021. This opens the prospect of looser market fundamentals,
lower prices and an easing of gas supply security concerns from the second-half of 2030s,
with potential upside for demand if these developments buttress confidence in gas among
price-sensitive emerging market and developing economies. However, it also raises
questions about the long-term profitability of projects.

78International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Chapter 2
Setting the scene
Context and scenario design
S U M M A R Y• There is a new context for this World Energy Outlook. A more complex andfragmented geopolitical landscape has energy as one of its dividing lines. Partly as aresult, new energy and industrial policy settings are emerging as countries compete
for footholds in the new clean energy economy, amid concerns about energy security
and resilience. Greenhouse gas emissions remain at record levels and theaccumulation of emissions is heightening physical climate risks. And this is all taking
place in a difficult macroeconomic context, with the recent crisis pushing up the costof living and ending a period of low interest rates.

• Some of the tensions in energy markets have receded in 2023 after a period ofextended and extreme turbulence since 2020. However, numerous risks remain andthe current relative calm may not last. Continued fighting in Ukraine, more than a year
after Russia’s invasion, is now accompanied by the risk of protracted conflict in the
Middle East. Periods of extreme weather are becoming a major hazard for energy
security.

• Despite headwinds, there are strong signs of an acceleration in clean energy
transitions. The deployment trends for solar PV, electric vehicles, batteries and heatpumps are encouraging and the overall balance of investment is shifting towards
clean energy. For every USD 1 spent on fossil fuels, USD 1.8 is now spent on a rangeof clean energy technologies and related infrastructure: five years ago this ratio was
1:1. The increase in spending is concentrated in advanced economies and China. A
much broader flow of clean energy projects – based on stronger national policies andinternational financial support – is essential to meet the Sustainable Development
Goals, including energy access, and global climate and energy security objectives.

• This Outlook explores three scenarios – fully updated – that provide a framework for
exploring the implications of various policy choices, investment and technology
trends. The Stated Policies Scenario is based on current policy settings and also
considers the implications of industrial policies that support clean energy supply
chains as well as measures related to energy and climate. The Announced Pledges
Scenario gives governments the benefit of the doubt and explores what the full andtimely implementation of national energy and climate goals, including net zero
emissions targets, would mean for the energy sector. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050
Scenario maps out a transition pathway that would limit global warming to 1.5 °C.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• The global economy is assumed to increase at an average of 2.6% per year to 2050 in
the three scenarios, while the global population expands from 8 billion today to
9.7 billion in 2050. Energy, carbon and mineral prices find different equilibrium levels
across the scenarios, but the potential for volatility remains high.

Chapter 2 | Setting the scene

79United States

China

European Union

Rest of world

1 000 billion USD

Investment flows

The pattern of investments in recent years
has started to shift the world towards a more
electrified, renewables-rich energy system

World (billion USD)

r
owe

ns p

ssio
-emi
Low

679 Oil

660

493
433 Natural gas
453
362
352

343 Energy efficiency

329

326 Electricity grids and battery storage179

209 Coal
36
82015

Economic and population
growth are two key
underlying forces for theoutlook: the global
economy is assumed toincrease at an average of
2.6% per year to 2050,
while the global
population expands from
8 billion today to 9.7
billion in 2050.

Electrification 147
17
Low-emissions fuels
2022

Economic and population drivers
India

Index (2022 = 1)

AfricaSoutheast Asia

GDP

Population

1990

2022

2050

Middle East

Latin America

World

United States

European Union

Japan and Korea

China

Eurasia2.1

New context for the World Energy Outlook

The energy sector has been shaken in recent years, first by the Covid-19 pandemic and thenby the global energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Both were hugely
disruptive. Both had impacts on energy markets that left many energy producers andconsumers feeling bruised by volatile fuel and electricity prices.
These impacts prompted a range of reactions from policy makers to try and lessen theimmediate impacts and address future vulnerabilities, including risks to energy security andaffordability, while at the same time facing up to the imperative to transition to clean energy
technologies. Whether these responses are adequate to the scale of the challenge is thecentral question of this Outlook. When future generations look back, will the extended crisisof 2020-2023 be seen as the moment when the world took decisive steps to address themultiple risks facing the energy sector, or will the reaction to it be seen as another missed
opportunity?
Some key trends in 2023 underscore the persistence of the status quo. By mid-year, many
indicators of fossil fuel demand were returning to where they had been prior to thepandemic. Natural gas demand rebounded to 2019 levels in 2021, and is now holding steadyafter a tumultuous 2022. Global demand for all oil products took a little longer to come back,but has also now returned to 2019 levels, with aviation fuels the last to bounce back. And
coal demand dipped during the pandemic but then reached a new record level in 2022.
Figure 2.1 ⊳160

Prices for oil, natural gas and coal, January 2019 to
September 2023

Oil (USD/barrel)

80

Natural gas (USD/MBtu)

400

120

60

300

80

40

200

40

20

100

Jan
2019
Brent

Sept Jan
2023 2019
EuropeSept
2023
United States

Coal (USD/t)

Jan
2019
Europe

Sept
2023
Japan
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Fossil fuel prices spiked in 2022, before moderating

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

back towards pre-crisis levels in recent months
Notes: MBtu = million British thermal units; USD/t = US dollars per tonne. Europe natural gas price = naturalgas TTF index; US natural gas price = natural gas Henry Hub index; Europe coal price = northwest Europe CIF
ARA; Japan coal price = Japan CIF marker. Nominal prices.
Sources: US EIA (2023); Argus (2023); McCloskey (2023).

Chapter 2 | Setting the scene

812

Following a period of extreme volatility, fossil fuel prices moderated in the first half of 2023
although market balances remain fragile (Figure 2.1). Crude oil prices returned above
USD 90/barrel in September 2023, as major producers in the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries-plus (OPEC+) grouping enacted cuts to their production. After the
extraordinary price spikes of 2022 that saw natural gas regularly trading in Europe at prices
above USD 50 per million British thermal units (MBtu) – the equivalent of more than
USD 250/barrel of oil – European prices settled back at around USD 10/MBtu, though theseprices were still high compared with those seen over the past decade. After record highprices of over USD 400/tonne a year earlier, steam coal prices were back down below
USD 150/tonne.
Does this mean that the period of crisis is behind us? And that the energy sector has reverted
to the same pathway that it was on before? Neither of these propositions appear to be true.
Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East mean a high risk of further
disruption and upheaval. And the energy pathway now looks different. There areunmistakeable signs in many parts of the world of a major acceleration in the pace of energy
transitions, even if macroeconomic conditions have become more challenging.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

These various changes, and the reactions to them, mean that there is a new context for thisWorld Energy Outlook:

The future will take shape within a more fragmented geopolitical and security context.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has widened fractures in the landscape of international
relations, and energy is one of the dividing lines. With flows of Russian energy to Europe
now at very low levels, one of the main traditional corridors for international energy
trade has been closed, leading to a wholesale realignment in the way that fuels movearound the world. In a more fractured geopolitical environment, policy makers tend toview many energy developments through an energy security lens. This does notdisadvantage clean technologies; in many cases they provide solutions to energy
security concerns. But it puts a premium on orderly and secure change and it has alsomeant that, as policy makers look beyond the immediate natural gas crisis, attention has
focused on dependencies in clean energy supply chains, which exhibit significantly
higher levels of concentration in many cases than supplies of oil and natural gas.

Government responses to the energy crisis are set to have long-term implications forenergy and industrial policy. In some cases, responses have included efforts to develop
fossil fuel resources. But in general the emphasis has been on measures to fast-track the
deployment of clean energy, as with the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States,
more ambitious near-term targets and support measures in Europe, and strong support
for clean energy in China, India and Brazil, among others. A world of more pronounced
international rivalries has also produced a renewed focus on industrial strategies. These
typically seek to promote investment in domestic production and/or supply fromfavoured jurisdictions as a way to increase the resilience of supply chains and to benefit
from new jobs and economic opportunities. Clean energy has been a major focus for

82

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

these industrial strategies as countries compete for footholds in the new clean energy
economy. These various strategies are integrated into our World Energy Outlook-2023(WEO) scenario design.
Emissions continue to accumulate in the atmosphere with all that this implies forclimate-related risks. Between the beginning of 2019 and the end of 2022, the global
energy system was responsible for more than 140 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2)
emissions (Figure 2.2). This means that the world is racing through the available budgetthat is compatible with limiting the rise in global average temperatures to 1.5 degree
Celsius (°C). These additional emissions are contributing to more frequent heatwaves,droughts and other extreme weather events that add to the pressure on vulnerable
populations and energy systems.

Gt CO₂

Figure 2.2 ⊳Annual change in global CO2 emissions from energy
combustion and industrial processes, 1990-2022

40
30
20

Gt CO₂

10
1990
2
1
0
-1
-2

2000

2010

2022

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Energy-related CO2 emissions rose 1% in 2022,
and are expected to rise by a similar amount in 2023
Note: Gt CO2 = gigatonnes of carbon dioxide.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The macroeconomic background has become more difficult with inflationary pressuresin 2022 marking the end of an era of very cheap capital and low interest rates. Manyemerging market and developing economies are particularly disadvantaged by higher
borrowing costs and rising fiscal pressures. According to the World Bank, incomes per
capita in 2024 will remain below 2019 levels in more than one-third of low income
countries (World Bank, 2023a). Higher borrowing costs risk putting some clean energy
projects at a disadvantage relative to traditional energy investments because the latter
have lower upfront costs, even though the clean energy projects may be more costeffective over time since they do not depend on fossil fuel inputs.

Chapter 2 | Setting the scene

8322.1.1

New clean energy economy

The energy crisis has brought forward the emergence of a new clean energy economy.
Market turbulence prompted a short-term scramble for alternative fossil fuel supplies,
particularly after Russia cut natural gas deliveries to Europe, but it also significantly increased
capital flows and associated investments that support structural transformation of theenergy system.
Prior to the pandemic, annual investment in energy systems was just over USD 2 trillion, split
roughly in equal parts between fossil fuels and clean energy (the latter includes renewables,
other low-emissions sources of generation and fuels, and spending on efficiency
improvements, end-use electrification, grids and storage). The IEA estimate for 2023 is thataround USD 2.8 trillion is set to be invested in the energy sector (IEA, 2023a). Fossil fuelspending has been rising slowly after a sharp drop in 2020 but remains roughly where it was
five years ago, so all of the increase has come from clean energy (Figure 2.3). The trends arefar from uniform across technologies, but growth in some key clean energy technology areas,
notably solar photovoltaics (PV), is now aligned with the near-term requirements of the IEANet Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, which limits global warming to 1.5 °C.
The emergence of the new clean energy economy is starting to change the face of the energy
system. Our analysis in the World Energy Outlook-2022 highlighted that the policy andmarket trends reflected in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), were already strong enoughto deliver a peak in global fossil fuel demand by the end of the 2020s. Updated projectionsin this World Energy Outlook-2023 underscore this conclusion and bring in new points ofreference to support it.

Billion USD (2022)

Figure 2.3 ⊳Global energy investment in clean energy and fossil fuels

2 000

Clean energy
Fossil fuels

1 600
1 200
800
400

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022 2023e
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

For every USD 1 spent on fossil fuels, USD 1.8 is now being spent
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

on clean energy; five years ago this ratio was 1:1
Notes: 2023e = estimated values for 2023. Numbers are in real 2022 US dollars.

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The most dynamic areas can be grouped under the heading of clean electrification. This isunderpinned by investment in low-emissions technologies: annual global renewableelectricity capacity additions are set to rise to more than 500 gigawatts (GW) in 2023, thelargest absolute increase ever seen. The share of low-emissions generation sources(renewables plus nuclear) in the global mix is set to reach 40% in 2023 – a new high.
Solar is leading the charge: solar PV capacity, including both large utility-scale and small
distributed systems, accounts for two-thirds of the 2023 estimated increase in global
renewable capacity. The 26% annual growth in solar generation in 2022 was aligned with thenear-term rates required in the NZE Scenario, and planned additions provide confidence thathigh growth can be sustained.
Nuclear capacity additions grew by 40% in 2022, with 8 GW coming online, mostly in China,
Finland, Korea and Pakistan. Moreover, many governments are taking a fresh look at how
nuclear might contribute to their energy futures, as they did after the oil price shocks of the
1970s.
Electricity is expanding to new end-uses at scale, notably to provide mobility and heat.
Global electric vehicle (EV) sales jumped by more than 50% in 2022, reaching a record highof more than 10 million. Deployment of utility-scale and behind-the-meter battery storagegrew by 90% in 2022, while heat pumps also saw a record year with sales up 11%, almost
double the level of five years ago.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Clean electrification is being complemented by a renewed focus on efficiency. Countries
representing more than 70% of global energy consumption have introduced new orstrengthened efficiency policies since the start of the energy crisis. The European Union
agreed on stronger rules in March 2023 which nearly double the rate of annual savings that
EU member countries need to deliver between 2024 and 2030; the United States raised thelevel of support offered to households for efficiency upgrades; China stepped up its push toincrease industrial energy efficiency; and India passed new efficiency laws that reinforce
building energy codes and appliance standards, while also promoting sustainable choices via
its Lifestyle for Environment Initiative domestically and at the Group of 20 (G20).
Progress is advancing most rapidly in areas where technologies are already mature and costcompetitive, such as electricity generation and passenger transport. But a full clean energy
transition will require progress in all areas, including those where emissions are harder toaddress. This necessitates policy support for innovation and early deployment. New
initiatives and programmes are now in place for fuels such as low-emissions hydrogen andtechnologies such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS). Investment in theseareas is rising from a low base and only a handful of projects have yet made it over the line:
only 4% of announced projects for low-emissions hydrogen have taken a final investment
decision. However, policy makers are now looking at ways to provide greater certainty on
demand, increase clarity on certification and regulation, and stimulate new infrastructure toallow more projects to progress to the implementation phase.

Chapter 2 | Setting the scene

852Analysis prepared by the IEA for the 2023 Group of Seven (G7) Leaders Summit in Hiroshima,
Japan, highlighted the impressive growth in manufacturing capacity announcements inrecent months (IEA, 2023b). If all announced projects were to come to fruition, solar PV
manufacturing capacity would comfortably exceed the deployment needs of the
NZE Scenario in 2030. Moreover, if they all proceed, announced projects for EV battery
manufacturing capacity could cover virtually all of the 2030 global deployment needs
identified in the NZE Scenario. The world is still a long way from a trajectory for emissions
that is consistent with the Paris Agreement and the 1.5 °C target, but the pace of change insome key areas is impressive.

2.1.2

Uneasy balance for oil, natural gas and coal markets

Oil markets faced two major short-term uncertainties at the start of 2023: the strength of
the recovery in demand in China as the economy emerged from the Covid-19 lockdowns, andthe impact on energy supply from Russia due to the price cap imposed by a G7-led coalition
on Russian exports of crude oil and refined products. As of mid-year 2023, the recovery of
demand in China has been quite strong. Despite slowing of its economic recovery, China is
expected to account for well over half of global oil demand growth in 2023. And Russian
production and exports continue to find buyers around the world, although its revenues havebeen considerably lower than a year earlier. Growth in oil demand is being driven by ahandful of segments, notably aviation fuels. Concerns about weaker demand and prices haveprompted a series of output cuts from Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC+
grouping.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Natural gas markets have moved towards a gradual rebalancing after the shocks of recent
years. High inventory levels at storage sites in key Asian and European markets provide
grounds for cautious optimism ahead of the 2023-2024 winter heating season in thenorthern hemisphere that markets will be calmer than in recent years, but major
uncertainties remain. Relatively mild weather and restrained demand from China lessened
the disruptive impact of Russian cuts to its European deliveries in 2021-2022, and it cannot
be taken for granted that this will be the case in the coming winter. Markets remain
vulnerable to unexpected outages or disruptions, especially for countries dependent on spot
markets for supply.
As with oil, patterns of natural gas trade have changed dramatically as a result of the global
gas crisis. A striking indicator of a reshaped global gas market is that liquefied natural gas(LNG) has now become a base source of supply for Europe, with its share in total demand in
the European Union rising from an average of 12% over the 2010s to close to 35% in 2022,
similar to the contribution from piped gas from Russia before its invasion of Ukraine. This has
knock-on effects on all aspects of natural gas markets and on how countries collaborate toensure gas security. A number of new liquefaction projects have received the green lightsince 2022, adding to the wave of new LNG supply scheduled to start operation in the second
half of this decade.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Box 2.1 ⊳How did the European Union make up for a triple deficit ofnatural gas in 2022?

Analysis of the global energy crisis tends to focus on the cuts in Russian gas deliveries tothe European Union from mid-2022 as the trigger. The 80 billion cubic metre (bcm) dropin pipeline supplies from Russia was indeed a primary cause of market turbulence, bothin Europe and further afield. But it was not the only one. Changes in Russian behaviour
in gas markets began well before its invasion of Ukraine, and Gazprom was much slower
than usual to refill its European gas storage in the third-quarter 2021. The call on the tightgas market was exacerbated even further by a very poor year for both hydropower andnuclear output in Europe in 2022. Overall, this triple deficit meant that there was almost
160 bcm of “missing gas” to replace in 2022 (Figure 2.4).
Alternative sources of supply met over 40% of the deficit, with LNG from the UnitedStates making by far the largest contribution. Europe’s ability to source supply was
greatly facilitated by lower demand in China, but nonetheless caused significant pain forother import-dependent economies that found themselves outcompeted for available
supply. However, the main adjustments were made on the demand side. Gas use inindustry fell by almost 25%, over half of which was the result of curtailment in energyintensive industries (with few signs in 2023 of a meaningful recovery). The oft-discussed
mild winter accounted for some 10% of the overall deficit, which was around the sameas the combined contribution from new renewable capacity and efficiency
improvements. Contrary to the perception that coal played a significant role, additional
coal consumption filled less than 4% of the gap.

bcm

Figure 2.4 ⊳Factors straining the natural gas balance andaccommodating measures in the European Union in 2022

160
120
80
40

Lower hydroand nuclear
Additional gas
into storage

Lower Russian
pipeline gas

Additional needfor gasSupplyresponse

Demandresponse

Supply response
Other
Additional Norway pipe
Additional other LNG
Additional US LNG
Demand response
Other
Additional coal use
Lower electricity demand
End-use efficiency
Fuel switching
Industry gas curtailment
Mild winterBehavioural change
Additional renewables
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Cuts in Russian deliveries put huge strains on the EU gas balance in 2022, but it was not
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

the only factor in play given low storage levels and a poor year for hydro and nuclear
Notes: bcm = billion cubic metres; LNG = liquefied natural gas.

Chapter 2 | Setting the scene

872Oil and gas investment has been affected by uncertainties concerning future demand. It isstriking that, despite record revenues in 2022, spending on oil and gas production is one of
the few investment indicators that remains below pre-crisis levels (coal supply investments,for example, are higher than they were in 2019). In terms of our scenarios, current oil andgas spending is broadly aligned with the levels required in the STEPS in 2030, but well above
the levels required to meet much lower demand in the NZE Scenario.
Coal demand has been on an elevated plateau and reached a record level in 2022 as higher
demand in India, China and Southeast Asia more than offset declines in the United States. In
Europe, coal consumption increased by 2% during the energy crisis, with lower industrial
consumption balancing out growth in coal use for power generation. Early signs in 2023
suggest continued increases in coal consumption in many parts of Asia, accompanied bysignificant falls in demand in North America and also in Europe as the latter resumes precrisis trends. Increases in coal consumption are being accompanied by increases in coalproduction in the three largest coal producers – China, India and Indonesia – with both China
and India reaching new monthly production highs in March 2023.

2.1.3

Key challenges for secure and just clean energy transitions

Even as clean energy transitions gather pace, IEA analysis has highlighted four key areas that
require urgent attention if the world is to see orderly but rapid change. These are recurring
themes in this Outlook.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

First is a crucial concern that a disproportionately low share of clean energy investment isgoing to emerging market and developing economies other than China. With a few
exceptions, such as investment in solar PV in India, the level of spending on clean energy inthese countries in recent years, at less than USD 250 billion per year, is far out of line withwhat is required to meet rising energy needs in a sustainable way. As things stand, countries
accounting for nearly two-thirds of the world’s population account for only 15% of global
clean energy investment (Figure 2.5). Bringing down the cost of capital by tackling a host ofreal and perceived risks associated with these investments and increasing the availability ofcapital, both domestic and international, is an essential step towards improving the situation.
Expansion of clean energy investment is a precondition not only to achieve universal accessto modern energy but also to deliver on other United Nations Sustainable Development
Goals in areas as diverse as poverty reduction, health and education. Exposure to volatileenergy prices in many developing economies has been accompanied by major concerns
about food security caused in part by high fuel and fertiliser prices, and higher debt burdens
and fiscal pressures. The drive to provide universal access to modern energy has slowed inrecent years and even reversed in some places: 775 million people still lack access toelectricity worldwide and 2.2 billion people lack access to clean cooking fuels. This Outlook
marks the mid-point of the implementation of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development, adopted in 2015. In most cases, the world is well short of halfway to reachingits 2030 goals.
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Figure 2.5 ⊳70%

Share of total population and clean energy investment
by region, 2022
Population

Clean energy investment

60%

2

50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Advanced
economies

China

Other
EMDE

Advanced
economies

China

Other
EMDE
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Most people live in emerging market and developing economies,
but only a fraction of clean energy investment is taking place in those countries
Note: Other EMDE = emerging market and developing economies except China.

Second is the challenge of uneven progress being made across different areas of technology
and infrastructure. Deployment trends for some technologies are sufficiently fast to bealigned with the IEA NZE Scenario, but the trends for most are not. Of the 50 technologies
and cross-cutting areas assessed as part of the IEA Tracking Clean Energy Progress, only threewere evaluated as fully on track: solar PV, EVs and efficient lighting (IEA, 2023c). Most require
additional efforts to get on track: these include wind power, grids and storage, electrolysers,
efficiency, innovation and digitalisation. And some are definitively off track, including thoseneeded for long-distance transportation by truck, air and ship and those needed by manylarge industrial sub-sectors.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Reaching net zero emissions will clearly require progress across the board, and there are
multiple commercial, technical, policy and supply chain issues to resolve. The risk with anuneven pace of progress is that slower moving elements may determine the overall pace ofchange. Grid availability, which is already hindering growth in renewables-based generation
in some markets, is a case in point. At least 3 000 GW of renewable power projects, of which
1 500 GW are in advanced stages, are waiting in grid connection queues – equivalent to fivetimes the amount of solar PV and wind capacity added in 2022 (IEA, 2023d).
Maintaining rapid rates of renewables deployment requires broadly matched progress acrossall the interlinked parts of the energy system, including grids, storage and dispatchable lowemissions sources of generation. Without such progress, the flexible and secure operation of
power systems as a whole inevitably will be impaired. Complementary measures can also
Chapter 2 | Setting the scene89

play an important part to facilitate rapid increases in low-emissions power. For example,
improvements in energy efficiency, particularly for rapidly increasing demand areas such as
space cooling, can alleviate strains on systems and obviate the need for expensive supplyside investment to meet peak demand levels, while reforms to electricity market structuresand pricing can help consumers to benefit from the lower operational costs of renewables.
A third key area is to mitigate new energy security vulnerabilities in a rapidly changing
energy system. Traditional concerns about fuel security do not disappear in energy
transitions, and rapid deployment of clean energy technologies requires resilience along a
new set of supply chains. For example, the manufacturing process for EVs depends on steel(which in the future will be required to be near zero emissions steel) and other materials,
and ultimately on the minerals and ores needed to produce them, plus anodes and cathodes
for battery supply. Each step of the process has different lead times and involves specificchallenges.
Clean energy supply chains today are highly concentrated. China has an outsized presence.
It has huge shares of global manufacturing capacity for solar PV modules and batteries (75%)
as well as a very strong position in the refining and processing of critical minerals. In the lastyear, major policy announcements indicate developments that will diversify some supply
chains, as evidenced by the scale-up in planned battery manufacturing capacity in the UnitedStates following the adoption of the Inflation Reduction Act. Yet, levels of supply chain
concentration look likely to remain high. This makes the entire system vulnerable tounforeseen changes that could arise due to shifts in national policies, commercial strategies,
technical failures or natural hazards.
A fourth key area is the need to ensure people-centred transitions. Inclusive approaches are
essential to ensure that the benefits of clean energy transitions are felt widely acrosssocieties, and to maintain their political acceptability. The turbulent events of recent years
clearly point to the risks and costs that arise if the process of change is disorderly or
disjointed, or if vulnerable groups within societies are left behind. During the global energy
crisis in 2022, governments allocated an extra USD 900 billion to shield consumers from theimpact of spiralling energy prices, around a quarter of which was specifically directed to low
income households and the hardest hit industries. Further measures will be needed to enable
the least well-off to invest in clean and more efficient energy technologies for household use,
especially where these technologies entail higher initial capital outlay than fossil fuelequivalents, even though they offer lower operating costs.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

2.2

WEO scenarios

This Outlook employs three main scenarios to explore different pathways for the energy
sector to 2050. Each scenario is fully updated to include the most recent available energy
market and cost data. Each scenario responds in different ways to the fundamental economic
and demographic drivers of rising demand for energy services. These differences largely
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

reflect the various policy choices assumed to be made by governments, which, in turn, shapeinvestment decisions and the ways in which households and companies satisfy their energy
needs.
The projections are derived from the Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model, which is alarge-scale modelling framework developed at the International Energy Agency (IEA). The
model matches energy demand and supply across multiple countries and regions, taking
account of a very wide range of fuels and energy technologies, including not only those thatare widely available today, but also those that are judged to be approachingcommercialisation. The GEC Model is a simulation model that reflects the real‐worldinterplay between policies, costs and investment choices and which provides insights into
how changes in one area may affect others.
None of the scenarios included in this Outlook should be considered a forecast. The intention
is not to guide the reader towards a single view of the future, but rather to promote a deeper
understanding of the way that various levers produce diverse outcomes, and the implicationsof different courses of action for the security and sustainability of the energy system.
An important element of this Outlook is that all scenarios now take into account not only
energy and climate-related policies but also industrial strategies that affect the rate at which
different technologies might enter the mix. This means that the scale and location of
manufacturing capacity for various components of the clean energy system have become
important variables in scenario construction and design.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The scenarios are:

Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario: This normative scenario portrays a pathway
for the energy sector to help limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre‐industrial levels in 2100 (with at least a 50% probability) with limited overshoot. The NZE
Scenario has been fully updated and is the focus of the recently released Net Zero
Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach (IEA, 2023d). The
NZE Scenario also meets the key energy‐related UN Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs): universal access to reliable modern energy services is reached by 2030, andmajor improvements in air quality are secured. Each passing year of high emissions andlimited progress towards the SDGs makes achieving the goals of the NZE Scenario moredifficult but, based on our analysis, the recent acceleration in clean energy transitions
means that there is still a pathway open to achieving its goals.

Announced Pledges Scenario (APS): This scenario assumes that governments will meet,in full and on time, all of the climate‐related commitments that they have announced,
including longer term net zero emissions targets and pledges in Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDCs), as well as commitments in related areas such as energy access.
Pledges made by businesses and other stakeholders are also taken into account where
they add to the ambition set out by governments. Since most governments are still very
far from having policies announced or in place to deliver in full on their commitments
and pledges, this scenario could be regarded as giving them the benefit of the doubt,

Chapter 2 | Setting the scene

91

2

and very considerable progress would have to be made for it to be achieved. Countries
without ambitious long-term pledges are assumed to benefit in this scenario from theaccelerated cost reductions that it produces for a range of clean energy technologies.
The APS is associated with a temperature rise of 1.7 °C in 2100 (with a 50% probability).
Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): This scenario is designed to provide a sense of theprevailing direction of energy system progression, based on a detailed review of thecurrent policy landscape. Whereas the APS reflects what governments say they willachieve, the STEPS looks in detail at what they are actually doing to reach their targets
and objectives across the energy economy. Outcomes in the STEPS reflect a detailed
sector-by-sector review of the policies and measures that are actually in place or thathave been announced; aspirational energy or climate targets are not automaticallyassumed to be met. The STEPS is now associated with a temperature rise of 2.4 °C in
2100 (with a 50% probability).

2.2.1

Policies

Energy and climate policies
A crucial preparatory step for every annual edition of Outlook is the review and assessmentof new policies, regulatory measures, targets and announcements that might affect theevolution of the energy system. The recent global energy crisis has spurred a wide range ofenergy and climate policy responses and initiatives that are now incorporated into thescenarios. The US Inflation Reduction Act and other notable new policies that were taken
into account in the WEO-2022 remain important points of reference.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The review covers all types of policies that have a bearing on energy systems, including
decisions to proceed with new oil and gas licensing rounds, methane reduction action plans,
and initiatives and strategies for energy access. The initial years of the scenario projections
are also informed by the detailed databases that the IEA maintains for various types ofannounced or planned energy projects.
For example, over the last year the European Union stepped up its climate ambition withnew targets for renewables and energy efficiency. It reformed the EU Emissions Trading
System (ETS) and established a new ETS for the buildings and road transport sectors. Further,
it introduced a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) that will levy a price on
carbon embedded in imported products in selected sectors, and also increased emissions
reduction targets for sectors not covered by an ETS. Japan established a roadmap for its
Green Transformation (GX) programme that aims to raise the share of renewables andnuclear in power generation and to ensure that all new private cars sold are low-emissions
vehicles by 2035. GX will be supported by carbon pricing and sovereign GX transition bonds.
Canada, in its 2023 federal budget, allocated significant funding to accelerate thedeployment of clean energy technologies and to decarbonise large emitters. Indonesia,
Viet Nam and Senegal signed Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETP), in which they
committed to accelerate the decarbonisation of their respective power sectors. South Africa
also published its JETP investment plans.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Industrial policies
Many countries are putting specific policies in place to encourage clean energy
manufacturing. Our scenarios now take account of these policies in association with costs,
targets and other variables for modelling and calibrating deployment trends.
China has a very high share of current manufacturing capacity across a range of technologies.
Following the adoption of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in 2022, the United States has put
in place a range of tax credits and federal support for investment in clean energy
manufacturing, with a focus on renewables, low-emissions hydrogen, CCUS, EVs, clean
energy manufacturing and critical minerals. Canada has also established funding and tax
credit support mechanisms for critical minerals, clean energy technologies and clean energy
manufacturing. The European Union adopted a Green Deal Industrial Plan that targets
increased public and private investment in clean technology manufacturing, and theEuropean Commission proposed a Critical Raw Materials Act with benchmarks for domestic
extraction, processing and recycling. Other countries have moved in a similar direction, with
the notable example of India’s production-linked incentive scheme to boost battery and solar
PV manufacturing capacity.

2.2.2

Economic and demographic assumptions

In each of the three scenarios, the global economy is assumed to grow by 2.6% per year on
average over the period to 2050. This is broadly in line with trend growth, but varies bycountry and by region and over time, reflecting investment dynamics, employment rates andchanges in terms of trade (Table 2.1).
We hold the assumed rates of economic growth constant across scenarios to allow for acomparison of the effects of different energy and climate choices against a common
backdrop. However, we recognise that the pace, design and choice of policy and regulatory
mechanisms used to drive change in the energy system will have wider economic impacts –both positive and negative – across countries and regions.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The initial years in the Outlook are shaped by countries’ exposure and resilience to shocks
and by where they are currently positioned in the economic cycle. The reverberations fromthe pandemic and the global energy crisis are being felt across the broader economy ashousehold purchasing power is eroded by higher inflation and as business investment isrestrained by rising borrowing costs (although clean energy appears, in some cases, to bebucking this trend). Notwithstanding, labour market conditions remain relatively buoyant:the unemployment rate is at or near its lowest level in half a century in most countries, andthis is helping to support household income and economic activity. Global GDP growth overthe period to 2030 is projected to average 3%.
The near-term economic outlooks published by international organisations, such as theInternational Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment, emphasise the significant uncertainty and the downside risks that pervade
GDP growth and inflation projections. One key risk is that inflation could be more persistent
Chapter 2 | Setting the scene

93

2

than expected, prompting further hikes in interest rates with uncertain consequences infinancial markets, notably in emerging market and developing economies.
Table 2.1 ⊳GDP average growth assumptions by region
Compound average annual growth rate
2010-2022

2022-2030

2030-2050

2022-2050

North America

2.0%

1.8%

2.0%

1.9%

United States

2.1%

1.9%

1.9%

1.9%

1.2%

2.3%

2.4%

2.4%

Brazil

0.9%

1.8%

2.3%

2.1%

Europe

1.7%

1.8%

1.4%

1.5%

Central and South America

1.5%

1.6%

1.1%

1.3%

Africa

2.9%

3.8%

4.0%

4.0%

South Africa

1.2%

1.3%

2.7%

2.3%

Middle East

2.5%

3.0%

3.1%

3.0%

Eurasia

1.9%

1.0%

1.4%

1.3%

European Union

Russia

1.4%

0.1%

0.6%

0.4%

Asia Pacific

4.8%

4.1%

2.9%

3.3%

China

6.5%

3.9%

2.4%

2.8%

India

5.7%

6.4%

4.3%

4.9%

Japan

0.6%

0.7%

0.5%

0.6%

Southeast Asia

4.3%

4.6%

3.3%

3.7%

3.0%

3.0%

2.5%

2.6%

World

Note: Calculated based on GDP expressed in year-2022 US dollars in purchasing power parity terms.
Source: IEA analysis based on IMF (2023) and Oxford Economics (2023).

Population is a major determinant of many of the trends in the Outlook. We use the medium
variant of the United Nations World Population Prospects, where the global population isassumed to rise from 8 billion people in 2022 to 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050.
Population growth in the medium variant is not linear, and the rate of growth slows overtime.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Demographic trends differ by country and region. Ageing populations and slowing fertility
rates mean the size of the population in 2050 is expected to be smaller than today in theEuropean Union, Russia, Japan and China. In contrast, the United Nations projects a billion
more people in Africa by 2050, accounting for three-fifths of the global population increase.
India’s population has now overtaken that of China and is projected to reach almost
1.7 billion by 2050, some 360 million people more than in China (UN DESA, 2022).
In the past, the development of economies has typically been associated with the migrationof rural workers to towns and cities in search of better paying jobs. This pattern ofdevelopment is assumed to continue over the period to 2050. In fact, in most regions the94

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

change in the population is entirely concentrated in urban areas. Only Africa is expected toexperience an increase in the size of its rural population by the middle of the century, andeven there it is dwarfed by a much larger increase in the urban population (Figure 2.6). In the
Asia Pacific region, more than 400 million people move from rural areas to towns and cities
by 2050. If the model of urban development remains broadly as it is now, this global increasein the urban population will have major consequences for the energy outlook, not least byincreasing demand for construction materials, such as steel and concrete.

Million people

Figure 2.6 ⊳Change in population in urban and rural areas by region to 2050

1 250

Urban
Rural
Total change

1 000
750
500
250
0
-250
-500

North
C&S
America America

EuropeAfricaMiddleEast

Eurasia

Asia
Pacific
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Except in Africa, the increase in population in the coming decades
will be entirely concentrated in urban areas
Note: C & S America = Central and South America.
Sources: UN DESA (2022); World Bank (2023b); IEA databases and analysis.

2.2.3

Energy, critical mineral and carbon prices

Oil prices

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In each of the three scenarios, oil and natural gas prices act as intermediaries between supply
and demand to ensure that sources of supply meet changes in demand and hold the energy
system in equilibrium (Table 2.2). This balancing act means prices in our scenarios follow
relatively smooth trajectories. We do not try to anticipate the price cycles that characterise
commodity markets in practice, but we recognise that the potential for oil and gas pricevolatility is ever present, especially given the profound changes that are needed to meet theworld’s climate goals.
In the STEPS, the slight but steady decline in demand from the late 2020s keeps the oil pricein check. Falling supply from existing fields, however, means there is not a large overall
reduction in price. A number of major resource-holders have pursued active market
Chapter 2 | Setting the scene95

2

management strategies in recent years to keep prices higher than they would otherwise be.
It is assumed that they will seek to continue to do so, meaning the marginal project is more
expensive than implied by the global supply-cost curve alone.
Table 2.2 ⊳Fossil fuel prices by scenario
STEPS

APS

NZE

Real terms (USD 2022)

2010

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

2030

2050

IEA crude oil (USD/barrel)

103

98

85

83

74

60

42

25

Natural gas (USD/MBtu)
United States

5.8

5.1

4.0

4.3

3.2

2.2

2.4

2.0

European Union

9.9

32.3

6.9

7.1

6.5

5.4

4.3

4.1

China

8.8

13.7

8.4

7.7

7.8

6.3

5.9

5.3

Japan

14.6

15.9

9.4

7.8

8.3

6.3

5.5

5.3

United States

67

53

46

41

43

26

27

23

European Union

122

290

67

69

68

53

57

43

Japan

142

336

98

77

80

59

65

47

Coastal China

153

205

96

80

79

62

64

49

Steam coal (USD/tonne)

Notes: MBtu = million British thermal units. The IEA crude oil price is a weighted average import price among
IEA member countries. Natural gas prices are weighted averages expressed on a gross calorific-value basis.
The US natural gas price reflects the wholesale price prevailing on the domestic market. The European Union
and China natural gas prices reflect a balance of pipeline and LNG imports, while the Japan gas price is solely
LNG imports. The LNG prices used are those at the customs border, prior to regasification. Steam coal prices
are weighted averages adjusted to 6 000 kilocalories per kilogramme. The US steam coal price reflects mine
mouth prices plus transport and handling costs. Coastal China steam coal price reflects a balance of imports
and domestic sales, while the European Union and Japan steam coal prices are solely for imports.

In the APS, the policy focus on curbing oil and gas demand brings down the prices at which
the market finds equilibrium from levels in 2022: the international oil price falls to around
USD 60/barrel in 2050. In the NZE Scenario, oil and gas prices quickly fall to the costs of themarginal project required to meet falling demand, which is around USD 40/barrel for oil in
2030, before declining further to USD 25/barrel in 2050. These prices cover the operating
expenses to lift oil and gas out of the field of the marginal producer, the capital expenditureand operating cost required in emissions reduction technologies, as well as upstream taxes.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Natural gas prices
In the STEPS, natural gas prices stay somewhat elevated relative to pre-crisis levels until the
middle of the decade as global gas markets continue to adjust following the loss of Russian
pipeline gas supply to Europe, a loss that is assumed to be permanent. However, a wave of
new LNG export capacity from 2025 eases gas market balances, and Asian markets take backthe designation of premium market for LNG. As natural gas demand first plateaus and thendecreases in the STEPS after 2030, import prices stay around USD 8/MBtu. In the UnitedStates, natural gas prices average around USD 4/MBtu due to domestic production of gas.
96

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

In the APS, a sharper reduction in European natural gas demand softens prices further. Lowergas demand growth in emerging market and developing economies and fierce competition
among LNG suppliers to capture market share means that by 2030, prices for natural gas
importers tend towards the range between USD 6.5/MBtu and USD 8/MBtu. In the NZE
Scenario, a glut of gas supply forms in the mid-2020s as demand starts to decline rapidly in
key markets, and prices in China, Japan and the European Union fall to levels last seen at theheight of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. This puts a strain on export projects at the margin,
especially for the 40% of export projects that have not yet recovered their invested capital.

Coal prices
Robust coal supply and lower natural gas prices sent coal prices steeply downward towards
the end of 2022, easing an unprecedented period of market tightness. High prices during theenergy crisis in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine had previously strengthened thebalance sheets of coal mining companies, providing them with an opportunity to invest in
maintaining and, in some cases, expanding capacity. However, our scenarios offer a mixed
picture, at best, for future demand and prices. The STEPS offers some comfort to coalproducers, at least in the near term, but demand falls in all scenarios, and prices decline
towards the operating costs of existing mines: the decline is fastest in the NZE Scenario.

Critical mineral prices
Reliable and sustainable supplies of critical minerals and metals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt
and copper are fundamental to keep clean energy transitions affordable. Vigorous
deployment of clean energy technologies has made the energy sector the main driver ofgrowth in the critical minerals market (IEA, 2023f). After a surge in prices of these criticalminerals in 2021 and 2022, prices have started to moderate, but in most cases, they remain
significantly above historical averages (Figure 2.7). We do not yet model full long-term
supply-demand balances for critical minerals in the same way as for fuels, but we doundertake market monitoring and scenario benchmarking. Based on this analysis, we expect
medium-term markets for many energy transition minerals to remain under pressure as the
economy recovers and clean energy deployment continues to accelerate.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Delays or cost overruns remain a significant possibility for many announced supply projects,
and uncertainty about the future availability of higher specification battery-grade products
remains a source of concern. New critical mineral projects generally involve higher
production costs: there is a long list of potential plays that require elevated marginal costs
to bring volumes on stream ranging from lepidolite-based lithium and to sulfidic-based
copper. In addition, supply-side events may induce short-term price pressures: in early 2023
there were mine supply disruptions in Brazil, Chile, Indonesia and Peru (the result of
unusually heavy rain in Brazil and Indonesia), plus aluminium production in China wasdisrupted by hydropower shortages.

Chapter 2 | Setting the scene

972

Index (100 = Jan 2021)

Figure 2.7 ⊳Price developments for selected energy transition minerals andmetals, January 2021 to September 2023

Lithium

1 000

250

Nickel250

Cobalt

250

800

200

200

200

600

150

150

150

400

100

100

100

200

50

50

50

Jan
2021

Sept
Jan
2023
2021
Price

Sept
2023

Jan
Sept
2021
2023
2016-20 average

Copper

Jan
2021

Sept
2023
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

After surging in 2021 and 2022, many critical mineral prices started tomoderate in 2023, but they remain high relative to historical averages
Notes: Assessment based on the London Metal Exchange (LME) Lithium Carbonate Global Average, LME Nickel
Cash, LME Cobalt Cash and LME Copper Grade A Cash prices. Nominal prices.
Source: IEA analysis based on S&P Global (2023).

Carbon prices

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Globally, about 23% of energy-related emissions are now covered by a carbon price of some
type. Despite the global energy crisis and significant price volatility in energy markets, carbon
prices increased in 2022 in about half of the existing carbon pricing schemes, several new
instruments were launched, and others extended their scope. The European Unionsignificantly increased the ambition of its ETS and adopted a new emissions trading system
for the buildings, road transport and other industry sectors, while also introducing a CBAM
which will levy a price on carbon embedded in imported products in selected sectors. China
increased the stringency of its national ETS. Indonesia announced the launch of its own ETS
for the power sector. India introduced framework legislation to develop a national carbon
market. The government in Brazil proposed draft legislation for a national ETS. Revenues
generated from emissions trading systems and carbon taxes continue on an upward trend,with almost USD 100 billion generated in 2022 (World Bank, 2023b). Nevertheless, mostcarbon prices remain below the level that we estimate is needed if the goals of theParis Agreement are to be met.
In our scenarios, the STEPS incorporates existing and scheduled carbon pricing initiatives,
whereas the APS and the NZE Scenario include additional measures of varying stringency andscope. In the NZE Scenario, for example, carbon prices are quickly established in all regions,98

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

rising by 2050 to an average of USD 250/tonne CO2 in advanced economies, and
USD 200/tonne CO2 in other major economies, e.g. China, Brazil, India and South Africa, withlower price levels elsewhere. As with other policy measures, carbon prices should be
introduced only with careful attention to the likely consequences and distributional impacts.
The level of carbon prices included in our scenarios should be interpreted with caution: thescenarios include a number of other energy policies and accompanying measures designed
to reduce CO2 emissions, and this means that the carbon prices shown are not the marginal
costs of abatement (as is often the case in other modelling approaches).

2.2.4

Technology costs

After an unbroken run of cost declines, prices for some key clean energy technologies rosein 2021 and 2022, largely reflecting higher input prices for critical minerals, semiconductors
and bulk materials such as steel and cement. This has had negative effects in the short termon the financial performance of some major clean technology suppliers and project
developers. Nevertheless, the prices of all clean energy technologies today are significantly
lower than a decade ago: they remain competitive with fossil fuel alternatives. Signs areevident in 2023 that some of the cost pressures are easing, although the risk of tight supply
chains for key components remains. Overall, we consider that clean energy technology costs
will continue to trend downward, and that there is still considerable scope to reduce
important cost elements through technology innovation, materials substitution, efficiency
improvements and economies of scale.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The GEC Model used to generate our scenario projections includes a very broad
representation of energy technologies. The costs of these technologies evolve over time inthe scenarios as a result of continued research, improvements in manufacturing andlearning-by-doing. These costs are linked in turn to levels of deployment. The link works inboth directions: lower costs tend to mean higher levels of deployment, and higher levels of
deployment tend to reduce costs. The cost reductions are not linear: a typical curve will besteepest in the earliest phases of innovation and deployment (when overall costs are stillhigh), and much flatter once technologies are mature. Policies play a crucial role in thisprocess, particularly in determining how quickly innovative clean technologies are scaled up
in sectors such as shipping, aviation and heavy industry.
Innovation also has an impact on the projected costs of fossil fuel supply, but here thedownward pressure from technology learning is offset by the effects of moving to more
geologically challenging or remote deposits as cheaper and easier resources are graduallydepleted. There are also offsetting pressures in the case of some clean technologies, forexample, new sites for onshore wind may be less favourable in terms of wind speeds thanthose already in operation, and new sites for mining critical minerals for battery
manufacturing may involve higher production costs. But overall technology cost trends pointin the direction of increasingly stiff competition for fossil fuels from clean energy
technologies across a wide range of market segments.

Chapter 2 | Setting the scene

992

Index (2019 Q4 = 100)

IEA clean energy equipment price index
250
200

Average prices

2.5

500

EV batteries (right axis)
2.0

400
Battery storage

1.5

300

100

1.0

200

50

0.5

150

USD/kWh

Recent cost developments for selected clean energy
technologies

Million USD/MW

Figure 2.8 ⊳Wind turbines

100

Solar panels
2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Clean energy technology costs edged higher in 2022, but pressures are easing in 2023 andmature clean technologies remain very cost competitive in today’s fuel price setting
Notes: Q4 = fourth-quarter; MW = megawatt; kWh = kilowatt-hour. The IEA clean energy equipment priceindex tracks price movements of a fixed basket of equipment products that are central to the clean energy
transition, weighted according to their share of global average annual investment in 2020-2022: solar PV
modules (48%), wind turbines (36%), EV batteries (13%) and utility-scale batteries (3%). Prices are tracked ona quarterly basis with 2019 Q4 defined as 100. Nominal prices.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The speed at which new technologies enter the energy system is particularly important in
the NZE Scenario, which relies on an extremely rapid pace of innovation in areas such as newbattery chemistries, carbon dioxide removal technologies and ammonia to fuel for ships. Thisrequires governments to give a high priority to research, development, demonstration anddeployment activities in these areas, especially at a time when capital markets are becoming
more expensive to access. There are some positive signs in recent policy announcementsthat this is happening, although the collaboration that usually plays an important part inaccelerating knowledge transfer and supporting rapid diffusion of new technologies cannot
be taken for granted, especially in today’s fractious international context.

100

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Chapter 3
Pathways for the energy mix
A view with a peak
S U M M A R Y• 2022 was a turbulent year for global energy markets, with energy prices – notably fornatural gas – skyrocketing in Europe and many other parts of the world. The effectsof the price shock on consumers were cushioned to a large extent by government
interventions. Global energy demand rose 1.3% in line with its recent average.

• Despite geopolitical friction, volatile commodity prices and uncertainty around costs,
transformative changes in parts of the global energy system are coming into view.
Electric vehicles (EVs) account for around 15% of car sales today, and are on course
to reach a share of 40% by 2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). A record
220 gigawatts (GW) of solar capacity was added in 2022, and deployment levels areprojected to more than double, while heat pumps more than double their share ofheating equipment sales in the STEPS by 2030. The planned boost in the
manufacturing capacity of these clean energy technologies, if fully realised, appears
able to meet many of the deployment milestones in the Announced Pledges Scenario(APS) and, in the case of solar and batteries, also to provide what is required in the
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario.

• Accelerated scale up of the clean energy transition means there is very little runway
left for growth in fossil fuels: for the first time, demand for oil, natural gas and coaleach peak in the three World Energy Outlook-2023 scenarios before 2030. The shareof fossil fuels in primary energy demand declines from 80% over the last two decades
to 73% in the STEPS by 2030, 69% in the APS and 62% in the NZE Scenario.

• Electricity supply becomes progressively cleaner as low-emissions sources increase
faster than demand in each scenario. Solar PV is the clear frontrunner, but wind also
scales up despite near-term supply chain challenges, while nuclear power, otherrenewables and low-emissions fuels all make progress too.

• Electrification of mobility and heat accelerates in each scenario, although not at thesame rate as power sector decarbonisation. Energy efficiency plays a key role in all
sectors in determining total final consumption. In the STEPS, consumption increases
by an annual average of 0.7% through to 2050; in the APS, it peaks in the late 2020sand then slowly starts to decline; in the NZE Scenario, it falls 1% per year from today.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• Hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS) are making muchneeded progress. The pipeline of projects shows that more than 400 GW ofelectrolysis for hydrogen and over 400 million tonnes of CO2 capture capacity are
vying to be operational by 2030. This could potentially meet the milestones of the APS
if all planned projects go ahead, but cost inflation and supply chain bottlenecks could
hamper progress.
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

101Transformative changes of the global
energy system are coming into view
The close historic relationship between global
economic growth and fossil fuel demand is being
loosened by the emergence of a new clean energy
economy. Based on today's policy settings, each of
the three fossil fuels see a peak before 2030.
STEPS
GDP

Renewables provide 70%
of electricity generation

Solar PV becomes larges t
source of electricity generation
ts
uni s
el
ting
hea ssil fu
of
o
f
f
l
se
Ha
d u
so l

Fossil fuel demand

1975 1977

1990

Fossilfu
70% of els pro vi deelectric
ity gen
erat

ion

2002

650 million carson the road globallye efficiency
Annual averag<1%
r pas t decade
improvement ove

Advanced economies consume
two-thirds of fossil fuels
globally

2022

Annual average effi
ciencyimprovement since 2022 >2%

2030
2040

650 million electric carson the road globally

Emerg ing market andmedeveloping econo mies consu
globally
two-thirds of fossil fuels

Half of heating units sold areheat pumps or electric heaters

2050

Solar PV and wind arereshaping electricity supply

Solar PV continues to gain momentum and grows at an
astonishing rate in all our scenarios, complemented byrobust growth for onshore and offshore wind. Scaling up
power system flexibility is critical to integrate more solar
PV and wind and accelerate transitions away from coaland natural gas.

Historical

APS

STEPS

NZE

35 000 TWh

r PV

Sola

Coal

2000

2022 2022

Wind
Natural gas

2050

Electrification isgathering pace

Share of electricity in buildings

27% 40% 49%

2022

35%

2022

2050

Share of electricity in transport
1% 11%

50% 58% 70%

27%

51%

2050

Coal in industry (Mtce)
1 463
1 614

Natural gas in buildings (bcm)
871

STEPS

647
APS
2022

2050

The share of electricity in total final consumption goesfrom 20% today to 41% in the APS and over 50% in the NZE
Scenario by 2050. Electrification is a key contributor to
reductions in fossil fuel demand, alongside efficiency
improvements and greater use of low-emissions fuels.

Share of electricity in industry
23%

2022

2050

Oil in transport (mb/d)
53

869

25

415
234
NZE

53

1

4

3.1

Introduction

Amid the wild fluctuations in prices and other indicators caused by the global energy crisis,
one data point stands out for being unremarkable: global energy demand rose by 1.3% in
2022. That energy demand continued to grow by a more or less average amount amid all themarket turbulence hints at the inexorable underlying dynamics of the energy system: theexpanding global economy and population simply require more energy services.
This should be the starting point for any conversation about the future of global energy, andindeed this is where our modelling process begins in this World Energy Outlook (WEO). The
first step in producing our scenario projections is not to look at emissions, investment or
resources, but to look in detail at demand for energy services: how much light, heat or
mobility communities, industries and countries around the world will need over the decades
to 2050.
Levels of energy services demand evolve at roughly the same rate across each of ourscenarios as the global economy grows, with two important nuances. First is that the speed
at which the world moves towards universal access to modern energy varies; achievementof this goal invariably leads to higher use of energy services for lighting, cooling, cooking, andappliance and equipment use. Second is that behavioural changes and strategies to improvematerial efficiency, adopted to varying degrees in each scenario, bring down demand forenergy services, for example by substituting short car journeys for walking or cycling.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Rising energy services demand is a feature of each scenario, but that does not necessarilytranslate into rising demand for energy or a higher level of emissions. A wide range oftechnology mixes can meet needs for heating, cooling or mobility, each with distinctive
implications for costs, resource inputs and pollution. We explore different pathways in thischapter, examining how investment in a range of technologies and resources could meet theworld’s future energy needs, and how policies shape the choices that are made. This chapter
starts with an overview of the key changes in the global energy mix across each scenario.
This is followed by four sections:First is a look at trends in global energy final consumption in the industry, transport andbuildings sectors and how demand is met in each scenario.

Second is a detailed consideration of the outlook for electricity, including scenario
specific mix of generation technologies and at variations in demand stemming from theefficiency of end-use equipment and appliances.



Third is a look at fuels: oil, natural gas, coal and bioenergy. Fossil fuels account for close
to 80% of total energy supply today. But the outlook to 2050 varies widely in the
scenarios according to the speed at which clean energy technologies enter the system.

The fourth section considers the evolution of key clean energy technologies, focussing
on solar photovoltaics (PV) and wind, electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, hydrogen andcarbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS).

Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

103

3

3.2

Overview

Global total energy demand increases from around 630 exajoules (EJ) in 2022 to 670 EJ by
2030 in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). This corresponds to an average annual growthrate of 0.7%, around half the rate of energy demand growth over the last decade. Demand
continues to increase from 2030 through to 2050, with a growth of 16% in emerging market
and developing economies more than offsetting a 9% decline in advanced economies. In the
Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), total energy demand declines by an average of 0.1% peryear until 2030, thanks to faster deployment of renewables, increased energy efficiency andmore rapid electrification than in the STEPS. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)
Scenario, electrification proceeds even faster, improving the efficiency of the energy system
and leading to a decline in primary energy of 1.2% per year to 2030.
Figure 3.1 ⊳
6 000

Coal
(Mtce)

Global total energy demand by fuel and scenario, 2010-2050
Oil(mb/d)

120

6.0

Natural gas(tcm)

Renewables and nuclear
(EJ)
480

4 500

90

4.5

360

3 000

60

3.0

240

1 500

30

1.5

120

2010

2050 2010
STEPS

2050

2010
APS

2050

2010

2050

NZE
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Low-emissions sources expand significantly and – for the first time – all fossil fuels peakand start to decline before 2030 in each scenario

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: Mtce = million tonnes of coal equivalent; mb/d = million barrels per day; tcm = trillion cubic metres;
EJ = exajoules.

In each of the scenarios in this World Energy Outlook, demand for each of the main fossil
fuels – coal, oil and natural gas – reaches a peak before 2030 before falling back (Figure 3.1).
Coal demand declines furthest and fastest: by 2030, it falls by around 15% in the STEPS, 25%in the APS, and 45% in the NZE Scenario. In the APS, China and India's pledges to reach net
zero emissions before 2060 and by 2070 respectively drive a faster decline in coal demandthan in the STEPS. In the NZE Scenario, a broader phase out of unabated coal across regions
begins during the 2020s, and this leads to demand falling faster than in the APS. Oil peaks
towards the end of this decade in the STEPS at around 102 million barrels per day (mb/d). In
the APS and the NZE Scenario, rapid and broad-based electrification and fast-growing use of104

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

advanced biofuels together hasten the peak in oil demand. Natural gas demand increases
until the late 2020s in the STEPS, reaching a high point of around 4 300 billion cubic
metres (bcm). In the APS, natural gas demand declines by 7% between 2022 and 2030 as lowemissions power expands rapidly, electrification increases faster than in the STEPS and gains
are made in terms of energy and material efficiency in the buildings and industry sectors. In
the NZE Scenario, gas demand declines by nearly 20% by 2030 in the face of very large clean
energy investments and efficiency gains.
For decades, fossil fuels have met around 80% of total energy demand. Rapid growth inrenewables and nuclear begins to erode this dominance in the coming years, lowering theshare of unabated fossil fuel demand in 2030 to 73% in the STEPS, 69% in the APS, and 62%
in the NZE Scenario. Avoided energy demand helps to enable this shift: without fasterefficiency improvements and behavioural changes, more clean energy supply would go
toward meeting rising demand, rather than substituting for fossil fuels.
All sources of renewable energy increase over time in each of the scenarios, although theirrelative weights shift. Today modern bioenergy 1 accounts for over half of renewables energy
demand, but solar PV and wind expand extremely fast in the coming years, especially in the
power sector. The installed capacity of all renewable power sources more than doubles in
the STEPS and the APS by 2030. In the NZE Scenario, the installed capacity of renewables
triples by 2030 – a key milestone in the drive to keep the 1.5 °C goal within reach.

Low-emissions electricity generation

Figure 3.2 ⊳Electricity in total final consumption and low-emissions sourcesin electricity generation by scenario, 2010-2050

100%

2050

STEPS
APS
NZE

75%
2030

50%
2010

25%

0%

Electricity demand:= 10 000 TWh

2022

25%

50%
75%
100%
Share of electricity in total final consumption
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Power sector decarbonisation advances more rapidly than end-use electrificationin each scenario, but both are key pillars of the transition to a clean energy economy

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: TWh = terawatt-hours. Bubble size is proportional to total electricity demand.
1 Modern bioenergy includes biogases, liquid biofuels and solid bioenergy except for the traditional use of
biomass.

Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

1053

Today, low‐emissions sources of electricity generation mainly include nuclear (9% ofelectricity generation) and renewables (30%). The share of nuclear power remains broadly
stable over time in all scenarios. Low-emissions electricity generation overall increases from
39% of total electricity generation today to 57% by 2030 in the STEPS, 63% in the APS and
71% in the NZE Scenario (Figure 3.2). This constitutes exceptionally rapid growth by historicstandards, which reflects the cost effectiveness of solar PV and wind, and their ability to
attract investment in manufacturing capacity as well as in deployment.
The share of electricity in final consumption also rises from its current level of 20%, whichmeans that low-emissions sources of electricity generation are increasing their share of a
total which is itself increasing. In the STEPS, the electricity share of final consumption rises
to 2030 at a rate similar to the past, before accelerating slightly and reaching 30% by 2050.
In the APS, it rises faster, in large part due to the more rapid uptake of EVs, reaching 40% by
2050. In the NZE Scenario, it nears 30% in 2030 and exceeds 50% by 2050, propelled inparticular by the extremely rapid deployment not only of EVs but also of residential andindustrial heat pumps.

Energy intensity:
Energy per capita (right axis):

2022
2022

STEPS 2030
STEPS 2030

EurasiaSoutheast
Asia

India

China

75

Japan and
Korea

2

Latin
America

150

MiddleEast

4Africa225

EuropeanUnion

6

UnitedStates300

GJ per capita

Energy intensity and energy per capita in selected regionsin the Stated Policies and Announced Pledges scenarios,
2022 and 2030

8

World

GJ per thousand USD (2022, PPP)

Figure 3.3 ⊳APS 2030
APS 2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

All regions see energy intensity continue to decline over time in the STEPS and the APS,
while energy use per capita increases beyond 2030 in some regions

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: GJ = gigajoules; PPP = purchasing power parity. Energy intensity is defined as the ratio of total energy
supply to gross domestic product (GDP) in PPP terms. Energy per capita is defined as the ratio of total energy
supply to population.

106

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Energy intensity 2 improves at an average rate of 2.2% per year to 2030 in the STEPS,
compared with 3% in the APS and 4.1% in the NZE Scenario. All scenarios improve on theannual average rate of 1.6% over the last decade, thanks to more stringent fuel economy
standards, additional building energy codes and retrofit targets, improved industrial energy
management systems, and the further electrification of heat and mobility. Advanced
economies have lower levels of energy intensity today than emerging market anddevelopment economies, but that is in large part a function of them typically having more
service-oriented economies.
Global energy demand per capita is around 80 gigajoules (GJ) today, a level that hasremained broadly stable over the last decade (Figure 3.3). It remains stable in the STEPS to2030, but it declines by 7% in the APS and by 15% in the NZE Scenario. In advanced
economies, per capita demand declines in all scenarios to 2030. In emerging market anddeveloping economies, it continues to rise in the STEPS as economic growth drives anincrease in energy services demand. In each scenario, energy demand per capita in this groupof countries remains below advanced economies over the projection period.

3.3

Total final energy consumption

Total final energy consumption (TFC) is 442 EJ today and is split between industry (167 EJ),
buildings (133 EJ), transport (116 EJ) and other end-uses (27 EJ). In the STEPS, TFC rises by
1.1% per year to 2030 and then continues to rise at a slower rate through to 2050. In the
APS, TFC rises until the mid-2020s before starting a gradual decline. In the NZE Scenario, TFC
declines by an annual average 0.9% every year from now to 2050.
Differences in energy efficiency gains are the primary cause of divergence in total final
consumption trajectories. They account for nearly half of the total energy savings in the APS
relative to the STEPS by 2030, with the APS reflecting additional retrofit targets and updated
building energy codes, more stringent fuel economy standards in transport, and upgrades toindustrial processes efficiency. In the NZE Scenario, year-on-year energy intensity
improvements double by 2030 (IEA, 2023a).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Differences in the rate of electrification are another important cause of divergence in
consumption trajectories. In the APS, electrification provides another 10% of the energy
savings relative to the STEPS by 2030. Electric technologies such as heat pumps and EVs
provide energy services more efficiently than rival technologies based on the direct
combustion of fossil fuels, and use of these electric technologies expands faster in the APS
and the NZE Scenario than in the STEPS. The share of electricity in TFC increases from around
20% today by 2 percentage points in the STEPS by 2030, by 4 percentage points in the APS,
and by 8 percentage points in the NZE Scenario: it is these differences that deliver the
2 The energy intensity improvement rate is defined as the annual reduction of energy intensity, or the ratio ofenergy supply to GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. In our scenarios, PPP factors are adjusted as
developing countries become richer.

Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

107

3

additional energy savings in the APS and the NZE Scenario (Figure 3.4). Rail and roadtransport, iron and steel, aluminium, light industries as well as heating and cooking inbuildings see the most substantial increases in electricity share across scenarios.
Figure 3.4 ⊳Share of global total final consumption by selected fuel andscenario, 2022-2050
STEPS

60%

APS

NZE

40%

20%

2050 2022
Electricity
Modern renewables

2022
Oil
Coal

2050
2050 2022
Natural gas
Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The contributions of electricity and modern renewables increase
while the share of fossil fuels declines in each scenario
Note: Modern renewables refers to the direct use of renewable energy sources excluding the traditional useof biomass.

The direct use of renewables in total final energy consumption – including modern
bioenergy, solar thermal and geothermal – expands significantly in each scenario, by 3% peryear in the STEPS, 7% in the APS, and 9% in the NZE Scenario by 2030. Low-emissionshydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels final consumption increases by 200 petajoules (PJ) (ofwhich 1.6 million tonnes [Mt] of hydrogen) in the STEPS by 2030 and 1 000 PJ (of which 6 Mtof hydrogen) in the APS, with growth concentrated in hard-to-abate sectors including
aviation and shipping. Renewables and low-emissions fuels contribute 8% of the additionalenergy savings in the APS compared to the STEPS by 2030.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

3.3.1

Industry

Industry is the most energy consuming and CO2 emitting end-use sector. It accounts for 38%
of TFC and 47% of CO2 emissions (including emissions from electricity and heat). Energyintensive industries – iron and steel, chemicals, non-metallic minerals, non-ferrous metals
and paper sectors – account for almost 90% of demand for coal used in industry, more than
70% for oil used in industry and almost 55% for natural gas (Figure 3.5). Energy-intensive
industries have in common high-temperature needs and long-lived assets. Other industry, or108International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

non-energy-intensive industries, which includes light industries such as food and textiles,
have lower temperature needs and account for the remaining 30% of demand in the industry
sector. Its energy mix is mainly electricity (37%), natural gas (20%), oil (15%) and bioenergy(14%).
Figure 3.5 ⊳

2030

STEPS
APS
NZE

2050

2022

STEPS
APS
NZE

2030

STEPS
APS
NZE

2050

2022

STEPS
APS
NZE

Energy demand by fuel for energy-intensive and other industries
by scenario

Other industry

50

3Electricity
Coal
Unabated
With CCUS
Non-energy use
Oil
Unabated
With CCUS
Non-energy use
Natural gas
Unabated
With CCUS
Non-energy use

Energy-intensive industries

100

150
EJ

Waste: non-renewable
District heat
Hydrogen
Bioenergy
Solar thermal
Geothermal
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Achieving climate ambitions in industry relies on electrification:
electric heaters and heat pumps in light industries, and electric processes
and onsite hydrogen for steel, ammonia and methanol
Notes: CCUS = carbon capture, utilisation and storage; EJ = exajoules. Where low-emissions hydrogen is
produced and consumed onsite at an industrial facility, the fuel input, such as electricity or natural gas, isreported as final energy consumption, not the hydrogen output.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Industrial production underwent significant disruption in 2022 as a result of Russia’s invasionof Ukraine and a slowdown in the construction sector in China. Global cement production
was down by 5% and steel production by 4%, though demand for chemicals remained stable,
and in the case of methanol it actually rose. These downward pressures on industrial
production do not persist: in the STEPS, production of all main industrial materials increases
by 2030, including ethylene (27% higher), methanol (17% higher), aluminium (13% higher)
and paper (12% higher), and steel and ammonia (each 10% higher) and cement (8% higher).
The rise in production mainly occurs in developing Asia.
Progress in developing efficiency and low-emissions policies for industry has been uneven,with patchy adoption of carbon pricing and minimum energy performance standards (MEPS)
in emerging market and developing economies (Table 3.1). Some groups of industrial
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

109stakeholders have taken the initiative and set targets to produce low-emissions materials.
For example, steel purchasers in the First Mover Coalition have pledged that at “at least 10%(by volume) of all our steel purchased per year will be near-zero emissions […] by 2030”.
Key energy demand policies for industry by region

Table 3.1 ⊳Carbonpricing

United States
Latin America andthe Caribbean
European Union
AfricaMiddle East
Eurasia
China
India
Japan and Korea
Southeast Asia

●
○
●
○
○
○
●
○
●
○

Minimum energy Public procurement
performanceof low-emissions
standards for motors
materials

●
◔
◕
○
◔
○
●
●
●
◔

●
○
◕
○
○
○
●
○
●
○

Funds forindustrial
innovation

●
◔
●
◔
○
◔
●
○
●
○

Share of countries within each region with policy currently implemented:○ <10% ◔ 10-39% ◑ 40-69% ◕ 70-99% ● 100%

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In the APS, measures promoting material efficiency, such as lifetime extension of buildings
and goods, lightweighting or smart design, help curb global demand for industrial material
demand compared with the STEPS. The impact of these measures builds over time. For
example, global crude steel demand is 5% lower in the APS than in the STEPS in 2035 and
13% lower by 2050. In the NZE Scenario, more widespread deployment of such measuresleads steel, cement and methanol to peak within the next fifteen years.
Coal demand in the industry sector peaks in the mid-2020s in the STEPS, falls below the 2022
level in 2035 and is 10% below this level by 2050, with reductions in demand in China andadvanced economies more than offsetting increases in the rest of developing Asia, Africa andLatin America and the Caribbean. The main reason for the overall decline is the rise of
secondary steel production, mostly relying on electricity, in lieu of conventional primary steel
production using coking coal. In all scenarios, scrap availability limits the deployment of
secondary production. In both the STEPS and APS, the share of secondary production doubles
compared to today to more than 40% worldwide. In the APS, electrification of lightindustries, hydrogen-based iron production and higher reliance on bioenergy mean that coal
110International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

use in industry in 2050 is 55% lower than in the STEPS, and almost 20% of coal use takes
place in plants equipped with CCUS.
Oil use in industry, mostly for petrochemical production, increases by 2.8 mb/d to 2030 in
the STEPS, with most of the growth taking place in China, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
In the APS, bans on single-use plastics and the widespread collection of plastics help to curb
the increase in oil demand to 0.8 mb/d from 2022 to 2030, and to bring it down by 3.6 mb/dby 2050 compared to 2030. The share of non-energy use, i.e. chemical feedstock and anodeproduction, in industry oil demand rises from 60% today to over 65% in 2030 and 80% in
2050.
Natural gas in industry is used in a wide range of applications: a third is consumed in otherindustry, especially in food and machinery, and more than a fifth goes towards the
production of fertiliser. In the STEPS, developing Asia, led by China remains the largest sourceof growth for natural gas demand in industry until 2030, although its rate of growth is muchslower than over the past decade. India becomes the largest source of growth after 2030,
while demand in the European Union declines further.
In all scenarios, electricity is the fuel that increases the most in non-energy-intensive
industries, and sustainable bioenergy takes second place. Increased electrification plays asignificant part in decarbonising energy-intensive industries, whether through directelectrification or through the use of hydrogen produced using electrolysers.

How can industrial processes achieve high levels of electrification?

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

As of today, most electricity in industry is used for motor-driven systems. Electricity has thepotential to provide heating across a wide range of temperature levels for heating, including
through heat pumps for low-temperature applications and electric arc furnaces for hightemperature (as it already does for secondary steel making). It also has the potential toprovide power for a range of industrial processes including alumina electrolysis, which
produces aluminium and electrowinning, which produces copper and nickel. Electrification
reduces energy demand because it is generally more efficient that the fossil fuel processes
that it replaces. To the extent that it draws on low-emissions sources of power, electrification
also drives down CO2 emissions from the industry sector.
Around 65% of electricity use today in industry is for motor-driven systems. Motors are used
to drive pumps, fans, compressed air systems, material handling, processing systems andmore. Over the last decade, motor-driven systems accounted for almost 60% (630 terawatthours [TWh]) of growth in electricity demand in light industries, and they are set to be thelargest source of electricity demand in the industry sector in the years ahead. There is somepotential to improve energy efficiency not only by upgrading the motors themselves but also
by making other improvements to the system, for example by downsizing electric capacity
to match the service required. Sixty-two countries have implemented MEPS for industrial
electric motors, covering more than half of the global industrial motor fleet in 2022: morewidespread adoption of MEPS would bring further energy efficiency gains.
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

111

3

Electrification of process heat increases in all scenarios, though at various speeds(Figure 3.6). In the light industry category, over 700 TWh or one-fifth of electricity is currently
used for heating purposes, and this rises to over 800 TWh in 2030 and 1 000 TWh in 2050 in
the STEPS. In the APS, the electrification of process heat happens much faster: the 1 000 TWh
mark is passed by 2030, and demand reaches 1 800 TWh by 2050. The APS also sees
innovative progress towards the direct electrification of energy-intensive processes such asalumina refining, secondary aluminium production, kilns and steam crackers.
Electricity demand by selected industry sub-sector, end-use
and scenario, 2022-2050

By sub-sector

16

By end-use

100%

Other
Lighting
Other electrochemical
Electrolytic H₂
Process cooling
Process heat
Motor-driven
systems

8

2030

STEPS
APS
NZE

STEPS
APS
NZE

2022

4

2050

2030

STEPS
APS
NZE

12

STEPS
APS
NZE

MethanolAmmonia
Pulp and paper
75%
CementAluminium
Iron and steel
50%
Other lightindustries
Food and25%
tobaccoMachinery2022

Thousand TWh

Figure 3.6 ⊳2050

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

All industry sub-sectors depend on electricity and demand rises
notably for process heat and hydrogen in the APS and NZE Scenario
Notes: TWh = terawatt-hours; H2 = hydrogen. Machinery sub-sector refers to the production of machines andtheir components. Other electro-chemical includes primary aluminium production, chlor-alkali industry andsome organic synthesis.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The use of electricity in steel, ammonia and methanol production is likely to depend on theonsite production and use of electrolytic hydrogen. There is scope, for example, for hydrogento be used in ancillary processes in various heavy industries, including semi-finishing for steel
and aluminium. These important near-zero-carbon options are mostly deployed in the APS
and the NZE Scenario. In 2050, global onsite electrolytic hydrogen demand in industry
reaches 36 Mt in the APS, consuming 1 600 TWh of electricity: the hydrogen is used to
produce around a quarter of iron, ammonia and methanol.
Electricity is also used in other electro-chemical processes mostly for primary aluminium
production. Electricity use for primary aluminium production increases in the APS until 2040,
rising to 700 TWh, then declines as expanding scrap availability leads to rising levels of
secondary production.

112

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

3.3.2

Transport

Energy demand in transport rose by 4% in 2022 as it continued to rebound towards pre-Covid
levels, with oil accounting for 90% of this growth. This was mainly driven by the aviation
sector, which saw 20% year-on-year growth: despite this, aviation energy demand remains aquarter below its 2019 level. Electricity demand from road transport was nearly 60% higher
in 2022 than in 2019, and the market share of electric cars 3 in new registrations reached 14%.
In the STEPS, the global car fleet increases by over 15% by 2030, and a similar increase is
projected for buses. The fleet of two/three-wheelers 4 increases by over 20% and the numberof trucks by over 10% over the same period. Aviation activity doubles from today’s level, railpassenger-kilometres increase by 36%, and shipping tonne-kilometres increase by almost
20% in 2030. In the APS, modal shifts away from private transportation lessen the growth ofthe car fleet and lead to rail passenger-kilometres being over 5% higher in 2030 than in the
STEPS. In the NZE Scenario, stronger measures to minimise emissions reduce the activity inaviation by 20% and the car stock by 15% compared to the STEPS in 2050: these measures
include behaviour changes and the expansion of high-speed rail.
Figure 3.7 ⊳Energy demand in transport by fuel and scenario, 2022-2050

Road

Oil

2030

2022

Natural gas

STEPS
APS
NZE

Bioenergy
Electricity

STEPS
APS
NZE

2030

2022

HydrogenHydrogen-based
fuels

Non-road

STEPS
APS
NZE
STEPS
APS
NZE
25

50

75

100
EJ
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Electricity is key to decarbonising road transport and meets nearly 40% of demand in the
APS by 2050; low-emissions fuels make inroads mainly in aviation and navigation

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: Non-road transport includes aviation, shipping, rail, pipeline and non-specified transportation.
Hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels are produced via low-emissions pathways.
3 Electric cars include both battery electric and plug-in hybrids.
4 Two/three-wheelers include electric and non-electric scooters but not bicycles.

Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

1133

By 2030, the share of oil in road transport energy demand drops from 92% today to 88% in
the STEPS, 84% in the APS, and 78% in the NZE Scenario (Figure 3.7). A tectonic shift towards
electromobility and the increased use of biofuels drive this drop. Electricity demand for roadtransport rises by more than 12-times by 2030 in the STEPS and over 15-times in the APS.
Supported by phase-out dates for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and incentives
for electromobility, EVs account for nearly 20% of total road vehicle-kilometres in the APS in
2030. However, since they are three- to four-times more efficient than ICE vehicles, they only
account for 5% of road transport energy demand.
Table 3.2 ⊳United States
Latin America andthe Caribbean
European Union
AfricaMiddle East
Eurasia
China
India
Japan and Korea
Southeast Asia

Key energy demand policies for transport by region
Fuel economy

ZEV incentives

ICE phase out

Cars

Trucks

Cars

Trucks

Cars

TrucksSupportfor SAF

●
◔
●
○
○
○
●
●
●
◔

●
○
●
○
○
○
●
●
◑
○

●
◑
●
○
◔
◔
●
●
●
◑

●
○
●
○
○
○
●
○
◑
○

◔
○
●
○
○
○
○
○
○
○

◔
○
○
○
○
○
○
○
○
○

●
○
●
○
○
○
○
○
◑
◔

Share of countries or jurisdictions within each region with policy currently implemented:○ <10% ◔ 10-39% ◑ 40-69% ◕ 70-99% ● 100%
Notes: ZEV = zero emissions vehicles including EVs and fuel cell vehicles with zero emissions at the tailpipe.
ICE = internal combustion engine. E-fuels-powered vehicles = conventional vehicles which run on electro fuels.
SAF = sustainable aviation fuels. In regions with only one country, unless there is a national policy in place,shares are shown for subnational jurisdictions. In the European Union, the ICE vehicle phase-out policy
exempts e-fuels-powered vehicles.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Electrification of trucks so far has made slower progress than the electrification of cars, inpart because it has attracted less policy support (Table 3.2). Battery electric trucks havenevertheless seen notable advancements, particularly as medium-duty trucks and othervehicles with relatively short, fixed routes. In the STEPS, the market share of electric trucks
rises from 3% of global truck sales today to nearly 20% by 2030 in the STEPS and to 25% in
the APS.
The electrification of two/three-wheelers proceeds much more rapidly, in part because of
their limited power needs and the relatively modest upfront cost increase compared to
114

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

conventional powertrains. The electric two/three-wheelers fleet in 2030 is more than fourtimes larger than today.
In non-road transport energy demand, the share of oil remains nearly at today’s level (85%)
in both the STEPS and APS by 2030; it drops to around 75% in the NZE Scenario. Rail is themost electrified transport mode today, and the share of oil in energy demand in rail falls from
53% today to 46% and 40% in the STEPS and APS due to increased rail electrification. In the
NZE Scenario, the speed and breadth of further electrification reduces the share of oil in totalrail demand to around 30% by 2030. Oil continues to account for most of the energy demandin aviation to 2030 in both the STEPS and APS. The same is broadly true for shipping, although
the share of oil in energy demand in shipping starts to decline slightly by 2030 as natural gas
and bioenergy begin to make inroads into its energy mix. In the STEPS, together they accountfor 4% of energy demand in shipping by 2030. In the APS, they account for 6% of demand,
while ammonia, hydrogen, electricity and synthetic methanol reduce the share of oil byanother 4 percentage points. In the NZE Scenario, the share of oil in energy demand inshipping falls to 80% by 2030. The European Union decision to include maritime emissions in
the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and the International Maritime Organization
revision of its greenhouse gas strategy both boost efforts to decarbonise shipping. The
FuelEU Maritime initiative and the US Clean Shipping Act support efforts to do the same byincentivising the use of cleaner fuels.

Are we heading towards the end of the ICE age?
Oil use for road transport is responsible for nearly 45% of global oil demand. It currently
totals around 41 mb/d, with cars accounting for 21 mb/d and trucks for 16 mb/d.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

ICE car sales grew by an annual average of 3.4% from 2010 to 2017, peaking at 85 million
vehicle registrations in 2017. The Covid-19 pandemic caused sales to dip by 13% in 2020.
Since then, sales of ICE cars have recovered only marginally while sales of electric cars shot
up from 3 million in 2020 to over 10 million in 2022. In the years ahead, total car sales are
set to increase by over 30% to reach nearly 100 million by 2030. Around two-thirds of thiscomes from emerging market and developing economies, in particular China, India andIndonesia. But the rise of EVs means that sales of ICE cars does not revert to the 2017 peaklevel (Figure 3.8). In the STEPS and APS, widespread policy support helps sales of electric cars
worldwide to continue their impressive expansion. More than 50 countries, home to around
60% of the world population, have policies in place to incentivise the uptake of EVs. Around30 countries have set target dates to phase out ICE vehicles, and several others are
considering similar action. In addition, automobile manufacturers have plans to release over
150 new electric car models in the coming years, and some have made their own net zero
emissions commitments. Efforts are being made to establish local EV manufacturing hubs ina number of countries including India, Indonesia and Thailand, providing a further boost for
their switch from ICE vehicles to EVs.
These measures mean that sales of electric cars continue their impressive growth. By 2030,
sales of ICE cars decline to around 60 million in the STEPS and 55 million in the APS. With this
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

115

3

structural decline of ICE vehicles in road vehicles, oil demand does not recover to its prepandemic levels: it stands at around 41 mb/d by 2030 in the STEPS and around 38 mb/d in
the APS. Electric cars currently displace 0.4 mb/d of oil demand, and this rises to nearly
4 mb/d by the end of this decade, bringing energy security benefits to oil importing countries
and reducing the number of consumers exposed to volatile oil prices.

125

New passenger car registrations by type and passenger car
oil demand in the Stated Policies and Announced Pledges
scenarios, 2010-2050
STEPS

25
125

APS

25

100

20
100

20

75

15
75

15

50

10
50

10

25

5
25

5

2010
2022
2030
ICE carsZero-emissions carsmb/dMillion passenger cars

Figure 3.8 ⊳

2050
2030
2050 2022
Passenger car oil demand (right axis)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Registrations of new conventional cars peaked in 2017; policies supporting
electromobility deliver a sharp decline in oil demand from road transport

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In China, sales of electric cars accounted for 29% of the market in 2022; they are set to reachover 35% in 2023 and 65% by 2030 in the STEPS with the support of tax exemptions. Sales ofelectric cars in the European Union made up over 20% of the market in 2022, and the latest
CO2 standards adopted for passenger cars look set to help increase that market share to over
60% by 2030. In the United States, electric car sales saw a more than 55% year-on-yearincrease in 2022 and now represent around 8% of the market. The sales share increases to
50% by 2030 as the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law help to boost
affordability and support the roll-out of charging infrastructure.
Strong policy support, particularly in China, helped EVs to become increasingly competitivein the market and to become central to the challenge to reduce emissions. Action is now
needed to ensure rapid deployment of EV charging facilities and to enhance electricity
networks so that inadequate infrastructure does not hold back their expansion. Action is alsoneeded to continue the rapid deployment of renewables in electricity generation: theemissions benefits of the shift to EVs depend upon the availability of low-emissions
electricity.

116

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

How can emissions from aviation be reduced?
Aviation accounts for over 2% of energy-related emissions and is currently dominated by oil.
A variety of parallel strategies are needed to decarbonise aviation. Improvements inaerodynamics and lightweighting materials have led modern airplanes to be nearly 20% more
efficient than those built around a decade ago. There will be further improvements to come,but technology, material and design changes in aeronautics are characterised by long
implementation times. Sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) offer scope to replace oil and reduce
emissions, but they are still very expensive and today represent less than 0.01% of energy
demand in aviation. In the NZE Scenario, behaviour changes are another key lever, withoutthem, total aviation activity would be 10% higher by 2030 and over 20% higher by 2050.
Figure 3.9 ⊳Energy demand in aviation by fuel and scenario, 2022-2050,
and annual fuel intensity improvement rate, 2019-2050
2019-50 annual intensity improvement
3%Electricity
Hydrogen
Synthetic kerosene
2%
Bio jet kerosene
Oil

20

ICAO target

NZE

STEPS
APS
NZE

2050

APS

STEPS
APS
NZE

2022

2030

STEPS

1%

10

Stock
turnover

EJ

Energy demand30

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Accelerating the use of sustainable aviation fuels and reducing in-flight energy
demand through efficiency measures are key to curbing oil demand growthNote: The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) set an aspirational goal in 2010 to improve fuelintensity (measured per revenue tonne-kilometre) by 2% per year to 2050.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Each year, the fuel intensity of the global aircraft fleet improves by around 1% due to stock
turnover as older models are retired. In the STEPS, the widespread use of cost-effective
operational efficiency measures such as single engine taxiing and optimised flight trajectories
increases this efficiency rate to 1.3% each year through to 2050. The APS sees this rise toover 1.4% as a result of further improvements including electric taxiing and formation flying.
The NZE Scenario reaches the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) goal of a 2%
annual reduction each year until 2050: this assumes vital additional support for research anddevelopment for revolutionary airframes and hybrid electric aircrafts (Figure 3.9).
Efficiency improvements have a very important part to play, but they offer only a partial
answer to the problem of aviation emissions. They cannot even entirely counterbalance
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

117

3

growth in demand for aviation, which is expected to lead to an increase of around 4% in flightactivity each year until 2050. This points to an urgent need for the development anddeployment of lower carbon fuels. SAF look to be the most promising option: whether in theform of biojet kerosene or synthetic kerosene, they are drop-in fuels that can be blended
with conventional oil products at rates of up to 50%. They also have the potential to be usedon their own: manufacturers and airlines are currently testing flights that run solely on SAF.
Although SAF off-take agreements more than doubled in volume between 2021 and 2022,
signalling growing demand, high costs remain a barrier to widespread adoption, and theannounced project pipeline covers only 1-2% of global aviation demand by 2027 (IEA, 2022a).
Bio-kerosene production currently costs twice as much as conventional kerosene, andsynthetic kerosene four-times more. Expanding supply will help reduce costs, but the
average price of SAF is still expected to be around two times higher than that of conventional
kerosene in 2030.
In the STEPS, biojet kerosene makes up 2% of total energy demand in aviation in 2030 and
6% in 2050, compared with over 5% and 37% respectively in the APS, and 11% and 70%
respectively in the NZE Scenario. Synthetic kerosene demand in 2050 in the NZE Scenario isnearly double the levels in the APS. The higher levels of demand in the APS and the
NZE Scenario assume higher levels of support for SAF from governments and increased
industry investments in the context of broader policy frameworks that give a high priority to
reducing emissions.
There are some grounds for optimism on this score, since there are already a number ofpolicies focussed on SAF, though the detail has still to be worked through in many cases. The
US Inflation Reduction Act provides tax credits for SAF, and this support could enableproduction to reach 3 billion gallons (0.2 mb/d) in 2030 and 35 billion gallons (2.3 mb/d) by
2050, which would be enough to fuel all US flights by 2050. SAF are also supported by EU
Innovation Fund grants, Japan’s planned mandate for SAF to provide 10% of aviation fuel use
by 2030, the UK Jet Zero pledge to decarbonise aviation by 2050, and ReFuelEU Aviation’s
mandate for the share of SAF in aviation fuel to reach 70% by 2050.
However, there is a limited supply of the resources used today to produce sustainablebiofuels, including cooking oil and waste animal fats, and a feedstock crunch could hamper
growth in the short term. To meet additional biofuel demand over time, alternative
production pathways using materials such as municipal solid waste and agricultural andforestry residues need to be commercialised. Government support and private investments
are also needed for the development and commercialisation of SAF technologies that have
low technology readiness and high costs today, notably synthetic kerosene.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

3.3.3

Buildings

Total energy consumption in the buildings sector increased on average by 1% per year overthe last decade and reached 133 EJ in 2022 (Figure 3.10). Natural gas demand declined in
2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a mild winter, with the decline most notedin Europe, but natural gas still met 23% of energy demand in buildings worldwide. Electricity
118

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

now accounts for over one-third of energy demand in the buildings sector: its share has
steadily increased with expanding ownership of appliances and air conditioners, andelectrification of heating and cooking. Modern bioenergy meets 4% of energy demand inbuildings, and other direct uses of renewables, in the form of solar thermal and geothermal
heating, more than doubled over the last decade to now account for 2% of demand.
Figure 3.10 ⊳ Buildings sector energy demand by source and end-use
by scenario, 2022-2050

By energy source

Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Electricity
District heat
Traditional use of biomass
Modern solid biomass
Other renewables
Low-emissions gases
Other*

2030
2050

2022
STEPS
APS
NZE
STEPS
APS
NZE
By end-use

2030
2050

2022
STEPS
APS
NZE
STEPS
APS
NZE

3

Space heating
Water heating
Cooking
AppliancesSpace coolingLighting
Other**
40

80

120

160
EJ
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Energy consumption in the buildings sector increases steadily to 2050 in the STEPS
but declines in the APS and NZE Scenario; electricity expands its share in each scenario
Notes: Low-emissions gases include hydrogen and biogases. Other renewables include solar thermal andgeothermal. Other* includes bioliquids and non-renewable waste. Other** includes the traditional use of
biomass and desalination. Space heating and cooling projections reflect expected changes in climate.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In the STEPS, global buildings energy demand increases to almost 140 EJ in 2030 and 160 EJ
in 2050, primarily because the number of households increases from around 2.2 billion today
to 3 billion by 2050, with the largest increases in Africa and the Asia Pacific. Global floor areaof residential buildings expands from around 200 billion square metres today to 310 billion
in 2050. In the APS, energy demand declines over time despite these upward pressures onenergy demand, thanks to improved efficiency in building envelopes and technologies. By
2030, energy demand in buildings is 12% lower in the APS than in the STEPS.
The share of electricity in buildings sector energy demand increases substantially in eachscenario, rising from 35% today to 40% in the STEPS, 43% in the APS, and 48% in the
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

119

NZE Scenario by 2030. In the STEPS, power sector decarbonisation and the use of electricity
and renewables in place of coal and oil leads to a decline in buildings sector emissions(including indirect emissions 5) of 1.4 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2) by 2030 despite
rising energy demand, notably for space cooling. The APS reflects additional pledges toprovide access to clean cooking (see Chapter 4, section 4.4.1), with modern bioenergy
meeting most of this additional consumption. Buildings sector emissions decline more than
twice as fast as in the STEPS by 2030.
Figure 3.11 ⊳ Residential floor area by envelope type and energy intensity
STEPS

400

APS

400
120

120

300

300
90

90

200

200
60

60

100

100
30

30

2022

2030

2040

2050 2022

2030

2040

Envelope type: Non-compliant Compliant Zero-carbon-ready
Energy intensity (right axis):
Heating
Cooling

kWh/m2

Billion m2of heated and cooled floor area by scenario, 2022-2050

2050
Retrofit
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Implementation of proposals to improve building envelopes lowers heating
and cooling intensities by 30% in the APS relative to the STEPS by 2050
Notes: m2 = square metre; kWh/ m2 = kilowatt-hour per square metre. Zero-carbon-ready envelopes enable abuilding to be zero-carbon emissions without further renovation once the power and natural gas grids that it
relies on are fully decarbonised. Heated and cooled floorspace evolves over time with changes in climate andin the ownership of heating and cooling technologies.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

A key difference between the scenarios is the level of ambition for improving building designs(Figure 3.11). In the STEPS, around 45% of the building stock is constructed or retrofitted incompliance with building energy codes or zero-carbon-ready standards by 2050. In the APS,
this share exceeds 65%, accounting for increased policy ambition including the proposed
update to the EU Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, proposed new standards forfederal buildings in the United States, and China’s Carbon Peaking and Neutrality Blueprintfor Urbanisation and Rural Development. While the energy savings gained from compliancewith building energy codes vary depending on the stringency of the codes, zero-carbon-readystandards more than halve heating and cooling demand compared with the average stock
today. Policy incentives counterbalance barriers to improving building envelopes, including
5 Indirect emissions are from the electricity and heat generation needed to meet demand in buildings.

120International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

the cost of materials and the split incentives faced by property owners and tenants (IEA,
2023a). Compared to buildings constructed over the last decade, those constructed in the2030s are on average 15% more efficient in the STEPS and 36% more efficient in the APS. In
the NZE Scenario, they are 66% more efficient, with all new buildings from 2030 onwards
being zero-carbon-ready and a larger share of existing buildings undergoing retrofits.
Table 3.3 ⊳United States
Latin America andthe Caribbean
European Union
AfricaMiddle East
Eurasia
China
India
Japan and Korea
Southeast Asia

Key energy demand policies for buildings by region
Minimum energy
performance standards

3

Mandatorybuilding
energy codes

Retrofits

Heat pumps

Cooling

Appliances

◕
◔
●
◔
◑
◑
●
◕
●
◑

●
◔
●
○
◑
◔
◑
○
●
◔

●
○
◕
○
◑
○
◑
○
●
○

●
◕
●
◔
◑
◔
●
○
●
◑

●
◕
●
◔
◕
●
●
●
●
◑

Incentives

Share of countries or jurisdictions within each region with policy currently implemented:○ <10% ◔ 10-39% ◑ 40-69% ◕ 70-99% ● 100%

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: In regions with one country, unless there is a national policy in place, shares are shown for subnational
jurisdictions. Some policy types are not equally relevant for all regions given variations in heating and coolingneeds and the age of the building stock.

Deploying more energy-efficient technologies is another key factor differentiating energy
demand and emissions in the buildings sector in our scenarios. Installed capacity of heatpumps in buildings is around 15% higher in the APS than in the STEPS by 2030, while unit
electricity consumption of appliances decreases by over 10% over the same period comparedwith around 5% in the STEPS, partly because of more effective MEPS. They are a primarypolicy tool for improving technology efficiency and are implemented relatively consistently
across regions compared to other types of policies related to the buildings sector (Table 3.3).
Nevertheless, there is scope for them to be more widely adopted, and for more stringent
standards and enforcement. Second-hand markets for appliances pose a particular barrier tofurther efficiency gains, especially with rapid growth in the ownership of appliances and air
conditioners in developing economies. In the NZE Scenario, light-emitting diodes (LEDs)
make up 100% of lighting sales by 2030 and best available technologies make up the majorityof appliance and cooling equipment sales by 2035.
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

121

What will it take to decarbonise heating in buildings?
Heating – space and water heating – accounts for around 45% of energy demand and 80% of
direct CO2 emissions from buildings. In the STEPS, the share of energy service demand forheating met by fossil fuels is 50% by 2030 and 35% by 2050, and heating still releases
emissions of 1.5 Gt CO2 each year by 2050 (Figure 3.12). In the NZE Scenario, by contrast,
heating is entirely decarbonised through a switch to electricity, renewables and district heatand through efficiency gains via envelope and technology improvements. Electrification in
the NZE Scenario relies strongly on the uptake of heat pumps, which have seen rapid
expansion in recent years (section 3.6).
Figure 3.12 ⊳ Share of global energy service demand for heating in buildings
by fuel and scenario, 2010-2050

75%

STEPS

NZE

APS

50%

25%

2050 2010

2010
Fossil fuelsElectricity

2050 2010
Renewables

2050
District heating
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Fuel switching is critical to decarbonise heating, including through the phase-out offossil fuel boilers and the uptake of heat pumps and other low-emissions options

Policies that support the decarbonisation of heating include building energy codes, heating
intensity standards, carbon pricing, incentives to adopt heat pumps and clean technologies
and bans on the sale of new fossil fuel equipment. To date, 13 European countries have
implemented or announced national bans or other national policies to limit the installationof oil-fired boilers, of which nine have done the same for gas-fired boilers. Sub-national
jurisdictions within Australia, Canada, China and United States, among other countries, haveannounced similar measures. In the APS, the implementation of bans on fossil fuel boilers or
furnaces that have been announced to date reduces heating direct emissions by 420 million
tonnes of carbon dioxide (Mt CO2) by 2050. While bans on fossil fuel boilers are only one
example of many policy solutions that can decarbonise energy use for heating in buildings,
they can be useful to provide clear market signals to stakeholders and to align incentives forproperty owners and renters. In the NZE Scenario, bans on fossil fuel boilers are applied inevery region from 2025 onwards, resulting in cumulative emissions savings of 19 Gt CO2 fromtoday to 2050.
122International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Although high upfront costs present a deterrent to many households, switching to non-fossil
fuel options can reduce household spending on heating over time (IEA, 2022b). While fossil
fuel boilers and furnaces have lower upfront costs in most markets, heat pumps typicallyhave lower operating costs due to their high efficiency. IEA analysis of life cycle costs byheating technology (based on average non-subsidised technology prices and relying on enduser fuel price projections consistent with the STEPS) finds oil-fired boilers to often be themost expensive option. Heat pump and gas-fired boiler life cycle costs are more comparable,with cost differences depending chiefly on fuel and CO2 prices and on gas and electricity
network costs. In densely populated areas, where the installation of heat pumps can provedifficult in some buildings, district heating can provide a viable low-emissions alternative.

3.4

Electricity

Overview
Global electricity demand is set to increase rapidly in all scenarios as a result of populationand income growth and the electrification of increasing numbers of end-uses. By 2050,
demand for electricity rises from its current level by over 80% in the STEPS, 120% in the APS
and 150% in the NZE Scenario (Figure 3.13). The additional demand is met mainly by lowemissions sources of electricity – renewables, nuclear power, fossil fuels equipped withcarbon capture, hydrogen and ammonia – raising their share of electricity supply in eachscenario. The share of unabated fossil fuels declines sharply, with their combined output
falling by over one-third from 2022 to 2050 in the STEPS, three-quarters in the APS and nearly
100% in the NZE Scenario.
Figure 3.13 ⊳ Global electricity demand, 2010-2050, and generation mix
Thousand TWhby scenario, 2022 and 2050

80

Electricity demand

100%

60

75%

40

50%

20

25%

2010

2020
STEPS

2030 2040 2050
APS
NZE

Electricity generation
Oil
Unabated natural gas
Unabated coal
Fossil fuels with CCUS
Hydrogen and ammonia
Nuclear
Other renewables
Hydro
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Solar PV
2022

STEPS APS NZE
2050
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Electricity demand rises over 80% to more than 150% by 2050 across scenarios and is met
increasingly by low-emissions sources at the expense of unabated coal and natural gas
Notes: TWh = terawatt-hours. Other renewables include bioenergy and renewable waste, geothermal,
concentrating solar power and marine power.

Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

1233

Electricity demand
Global electricity demand growth to 2050 is driven by emerging market and developing
economies, which together account for about three-quarters of the global total in the STEPS,APS and NZE Scenario. Today, China is the largest electricity consumer and demand growthof over 2% on average per year to 2050 in all scenarios means that it uses twice or more as
much electricity as any other country by 2050. Annual electricity demand growth of around
5% puts India behind only China and the United States in terms of electricity consumption by
2050 in all scenarios. Other emerging market and developing economies also see robustelectricity demand growth stemming from increasing populations, economic development
and rising incomes. In advanced economies as a group, electricity demand growth is lower,
ranging between 1.4% per year in the STEPS to 2.4% in the NZE Scenario.
Global electricity demand rises in all sectors and in all scenarios. The buildings sector remains
the largest in terms of consumption through to 2050 in the STEPS and APS as demand
continues to rise for appliances, space cooling and heating and water heating, thoughenhanced energy efficiency tempers growth in the NZE Scenario (Figure 3.14). The industry
sector continues to be the second-largest user of electricity in the STEPS and APS, withelectric motors accounting for much of its demand, but becomes the largest in the
NZE Scenario. EVs account for about 15% of total electricity demand growth to 2050 in the
STEPS, and a higher percentage in the APS and NZE Scenario, where EV sales rise faster andbecome a key driver of electricity demand growth. The production of hydrogen via
electrolysis remains limited in the STEPS but adds significantly to electricity demand growthin the APS and even more so in the NZE Scenario.

Thousand TWh

Figure 3.14 ⊳ Electricity demand by sector and region, and by scenario
By sector80

By region

60
40

2030

2022

STEPS
APS
NZE

2050

STEPS
APS
NZE

2030

STEPS
APS
NZE

STEPS
APS
NZE

2022

20

2050

Sectors
Other
HydrogenTransport
Industry
Buildings
Regions
Other AE
EU
US
AE
Other EMDE
India
China
EMDE
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Emerging economies see robust electricity demand growth reflecting population growth
and rising incomes; EVs and hydrogen production add to electricity demand growthNote: EMDE = emerging market and developing economies; AE = advanced economies; US = United States;
EU = European Union.

124

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Electricity supply
Responses to the current energy crisis have emphasised addressing security challenges while
accelerating clean energy transitions, particularly in the electricity sector. Recent policy
developments have boosted the prospects for renewables in major markets, including China,
European Union, India, Japan and United States (Table 3.4). Prospects for nuclear power
have also improved in leading markets, with support for lifetime extension of existing nuclear
reactors in a number of countries including Japan, Korea and United States, and support for
new reactors in Canada, China, United Kingdom, United States, and several EU member
states (IEA, 2023b). Recent policy developments have been mixed for natural gas use in the
power sector: European Union, Korea and Japan are taking efforts to reduce demand andreliance on imports, while China sees a continued role for natural gas. While the current
global energy crisis has led to a temporary uptick in coal-fired power generation, countries
with plans to phase out unabated coal remain committed.
Table 3.4 ⊳Recent major developments in electricity supply policies
and their combined impact on the outlook for selected regions
Combined impact on outlook for:RegionMajor policy

China

14th Five-year Plan and updated
Nationally Determined Contribution

India

Revised Nationally Determined
Contribution aiming for 50% non-fossil
power generation capacity by 2030

Renewables

NuclearUnabated
natural gas

Unabatedcoal

European Renewable Energy Directive III (42.5%
Unionof gross final consumption in 2030),
including nuclear-based hydrogen
UnitedStatesInflation Reduction Act with USD 370
billion for clean energy technologies

CanadaInvestment Tax Credits for electricity,hydrogen, CCUS and manufacturing

Korea

10th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity
Supply and DemandJapan

6th Strategic Energy Plan and Green
Transformation (GX) policy initiative

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Favourable

Unfavourable

NeutralThe growth of electricity generation from low-emissions sources accelerates in all three
scenarios, with their combined output quadrupling from 2022 to 2050 in the STEPS, growing
to 5.5-times its current level in the APS, and increasing sevenfold in the NZE Scenario(Figure 3.15). As a result, the global share of electricity generation from low-emissions
sources from 39% in 2022 rises by 2050 to about 80% in the STEPS, over 90% in the APS, andnearly 100% in the NZE Scenario. This enables advanced economies and emerging market
and developing economies alike to reduce their reliance on fossil fuels.
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

1253

Thousand TWh

Figure 3.15 ⊳ Global electricity generation by source and scenario, 1990-2050
STEPS

80

APS

NZE

60
40
20

1990

2022
Solar PV
Other renewables
Unabated coal

2050 2022
Wind
NuclearUnabated natural gas

2050
2050 2022
Hydro
Other low-emissions
Other
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Renewables outpace electricity demand growth to 2030 in the STEPS, leading to a peak incoal-fired power in the near term though announced pledges call for faster declines
Notes: TWh = terawatt-hours. Other low-emissions include fossil fuels with CCUS, hydrogen and ammonia.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Renewables provided 30% of electricity generated worldwide in 2022, and this rises to nearly
50% by 2030 in the STEPS. Hydropower is the largest low-emissions source of electricity
today, accounting for 15% of generation, but its annual output can vary widely, and highupfront capital costs and limitations on development of favourable sites constrain further
growth prospects. Other renewables – bioenergy, geothermal, concentrating solar andmarine power – have a part to play too, but solar PV and wind are the central technologies
in the roll-out of renewables to decarbonise energy supply faster. Renewables capacity
expands 2.4-fold in the STEPS by 2030, 2.7-fold in the APS and triples in the NZE Scenario,
and almost 95% of this growth is in the form of solar PV and wind (Figure 3.16). The share ofwind and solar PV in total generation is set to rise from 12% to about 30% by 2030, putting
power system flexibility at the heart of electricity security (see Chapter 4) and underlining
the need to speed up permitting and grid expansion (IEA, 2023a).
Nuclear power is the second-largest source of low-emissions power worldwide today, behindhydropower but far larger than wind or solar PV. In advanced economies, nuclear power isthe largest source of low-emissions electricity. After a decade of slow deployment in thewake of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station in Japan, a changing
policy landscape is creating opportunities for a nuclear comeback (IEA, 2022c). Nuclear
power capacity increases from 417 GW in 2022 to 620 GW in 2050 in the STEPS, with growth
mainly in China and other emerging market and developing economies, while advanced
economies carry out widespread lifetime extensions and look to build new projects to offset
retirements. Large-scale reactors remain the dominant form of nuclear power in all
scenarios, including advanced reactor designs, but the development of and growing interestin small modular reactors increases the potential for nuclear power in the long run (NEA,
126

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

2022). More lifetime extensions and new construction in countries open to nuclear power
boost global capacity in the APS to 770 GW in 2050, and to well over 900 GW in the NZE
Scenario, where nuclear construction reaches new heights (IEA, 2023a).
Figure 3.16 ⊳ Global installed power capacity by selected technology
Thousand GW

and scenario, 2022-2050

STEPS

20

APS

NZE

3

15
10
5

2022

2050
Solar PV
Other renewables
Unabated natural gas

2022

2050
Wind
NuclearBattery storage

2050

2022
Hydro
Unabated coal

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Solar PV capacity takes off in all scenarios, with only wind power at the same scale in thelong term; their variable nature leads to increased deployment of battery storage

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Coal is the largest source of electricity in the world today, accounting for 36% of the total,
but is overtaken by renewables by 2025 in all three scenarios. By 2030, with new construction
slowing and efforts to transition away from coal underway in many countries (IEA, 2022d),the share of unabated coal in electricity generation falls below 25% in the STEPS, 20% in the
APS and 15% in the NZE Scenario. In STEPS, unabated coal-fired power peaks in China around2025 and shortly after 2030 in India. Beyond 2030, the use of unabated coal in power
continues to diminish as the largest users – China, India, Indonesia and other emerging
market and developing economies – increasingly look to alternatives.
The role of natural gas in power systems is evolving and varies widely by scenario. Today,natural gas provides 22% of global electricity as well as flexibility and reliability services, but
gas-fired generation peaks before 2030 in all three scenarios. Its share in total electricity
generation falls to under 20% in 2030 and close to 10% by 2050 in the STEPS, with markets
in advanced economies increasingly looking to gas-fired power plants for flexibility rather
than bulk output as they integrate rising shares of solar PV and wind. While gas-fired powerrises in absolute terms in China and other emerging market and developing economies
beyond 2030, its share gradually declines. In the APS, transitions happen more quickly,
leading to unabated natural gas-fired generation falling by half from 2022 to 2050, and to anear complete phase out in the NZE Scenario by 2050.
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

127Coal- and gas-fired power plants equipped with CCUS and those co-firing with hydrogen andammonia contribute to low-emissions power mainly after 2030. Limited progress is made in
the STEPS, but the pace picks up in the APS and the NZE Scenario. They provide over
1 500 TWh of electricity generation by 2050 in the APS, rising to more than 2 100 TWh in the
NZE Scenario, which is equivalent to all global wind generation today. Along with repurposing
to focus on flexibility and retiring plants early, retrofitting existing coal plants to co-fireammonia offers significant opportunities to cut emissions while continuing operations (IEA,
2022d).

Power sector CO2 emissions
Global power sector CO2 emissions were close to 15 gigatonnes (Gt) in 2022 (including bothelectricity and heat production), accounting for almost 40% of all energy-related CO2
emissions. Power sector emissions are set to peak in the near term and then start declining
in all scenarios. Weather conditions in major markets will influence the precise timing, forexample droughts could lower hydropower output and temporarily raise the use of fossil
fuels. By 2030, global power sector emissions are down about 15% in the STEPS, 30% in the
APS and 45% in the NZE Scenario, which sees electricity sector emissions subsequently fall to
net zero by 2035 in advanced economies in aggregate, 2040 in China and just before 2045
globally (Figure 3.17). This makes the power sector the first to reach net zero emissions.
Figure 3.17 ⊳ Global power sector emissions, 2010-2050, and CO2 intensity of
Gt CO₂Global power sector CO₂ emissions
16
12

g CO₂/kWhelectricity generation by region and scenario, 2022 and 2030
CO₂ intensity of electricity generation
800
EMDE

8

400

4

200

2010
-4

2020
STEPS

2030
APS

2040

2050

AE
China
United States
European Union
India
Annual emissions
1 Gt CO2

600

2022

STEPS APS NZE
2030

NZE
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Global power sector emissions peak in the near term and then decline by about 15% in the
STEPS and 30% in the APS by 2030; they fall faster in all regions in the NZE Scenario
Notes: Gt CO2 = gigatonnes of carbon dioxide; g CO2/kWh = grammes of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour;
EMDE = emerging market and developing economies; AE = advanced economies. In the NZE Scenario,
emissions from fossil fuel combustion are counterbalanced by carbon dioxide removal through bioenergy withcarbon capture and storage.

128

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Power sector investment
Total power sector investment increases in all scenarios to meet electricity demand growth,
support clean energy transitions and maintain electricity security. Solar PV and windcurrently account for more investment than electricity grids, but projected cost reductions
for solar PV and wind moderate future investment needs at the same time as grid investment
needs rise (Figure 3.18). Grid investment is key to connect millions of new customers andnew renewable sources, reinforce transmission and distribution, and modernise anddigitalise systems (IEA, 2023c). Battery storage attracts increasing investment to provide
hour-to-hour flexibility and grid stability, while investment in unabated fossil fuel power
plants, already low in recent years, drops to a minimal level and is mostly focussed on natural
gas-fired power for the provision of flexibility services. In the STEPS, global power sector
investment rises from USD 1.0 trillion on average over 2018-2022 to USD 1.4 trillion by 2030
and maintains that level through to 2050. In the APS, power sector investment rises to
USD 1.8 trillion by 2030; in the NZE Scenario, it increases further to USD 2.2 trillion.
Figure 3.18 ⊳ Average annual global investment in the power sector by type
1 000
750
500

2030

2018-22
STEPS
APS
NZE

2030

2018-22
STEPS
APS
NZE

2030

2018-22
STEPS
APS
NZE

250

2018-22
STEPS
APS
NZE

Billion USD (2022, MER)

and scenario, 2018-2022 and 2030

Low-emissions
Wind
Solar PV
Other low-emissions
Nuclear
Other renewables
Hydro
Electricity grids and storage
Battery storage
T&D grids
Unabated fossil fuels and other
Other
Unabated natural gas
Unabated coal

2030

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Power sector investment rises by 50% to 2030 in the STEPS, 90% in the APS, mainly due tohigher spending on solar PV, wind, grids and storage, but the NZE Scenario calls for more

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: MER = market exchange rate; T&D = transmission and distribution. Other low-emissions include fossil
fuels with CCUS, hydrogen and ammonia.

Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

129

3

3.5

Fuels

3.5.1

Oil

Table 3.5 ⊳Global liquids demand and supply by scenario (mb/d)
STEPS

Road transport
Aviation and shipping
Industry
Buildings and power
Other sectors
World oil demand
Liquid biofuels
Low-emissions hydrogen-based fuels
World liquids demand
Conventional crude oil
Tight oil
Natural gas liquids
Extra-heavy oil and bitumen
Other production
World oil production
OPEC share
World processing gains
World oil supply
IEA crude oil price (USD [2022]/barrel)

APS

NZE

2010

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

2030

2050

36.5
9.9
17.2
12.4
11.1
87.1

41.3
10.6
20.6
11.4
12.6
96.5

41.1
13.5
23.3
9.5
14.0
101.5

35.5
17.2
25.5
6.7
12.5
97.4

37.6
12.5
21.4
8.6
12.4
92.5

15.9
9.0
17.8
4.1
7.9
54.8

29.1
10.5
20.3
6.1
11.4
77.5

1.6
2.1
14.3
0.5
5.7
24.3

1.2
88.4
67.4
0.7
12.7
2.0
0.5
83.1
40%
2.2
85.3
103

2.2
98.7
62.8
8.3
19.0
3.7
0.9
94.8
36%
2.3
97.1
98

3.0
0.0
104.5
61.3
11.1
21.2
4.4
1.0
99.1
35%
2.4
101.5
85

4.5
0.2
102.1
58.2
10.2
19.4
5.5
1.2
94.5
43%
2.9
97.4
83

4.8
0.2
97.5
54.9
10.3
20.1
3.9
0.9
90.2
35%
2.4
92.5
74

7.0
3.6
65.4
29.8
6.9
13.6
2.5
0.3
53.1
45%
1.6
54.8
60

5.6
0.7
83.7
48.0
7.6
16.2
3.0
0.3
75.1
37%
2.3
77.5
42

5.4
6.0
35.7
15.8
1.8
4.4
1.5
0.0
23.5
53%
0.7
24.3
25

Notes: mb/d = million barrels per day; OPEC = Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Other
production includes coal‐to‐liquids, gas‐to‐liquids, additives and kerogen oil. Historical supply and demand
volumes differ due to changes in stocks. Liquid biofuels and low-emissions hydrogen-based liquid fuels are
expressed in energy equivalent volumes of gasoline and diesel, reported in million barrels of oil equivalent perday. See Annex C for definitions.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Global oil markets have been reshaped by the turbulence caused by the Covid-19 pandemic
and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Overall oil demand in 2022 remained slightly below 2019
levels: oil use as a petrochemical feedstock in 2022 was around 1 mb/d higher, but this wasmore than offset by lower levels of use in road transport (1 mb/d lower) and aviation (2 mb/dlower). Demand continued to increase in 2023 and reached a new monthly record in June.
On the supply side, cuts in production by the OPEC+ grouping, which includes Russia andother exporters, in the first-half of 2023 were largely offset by higher output elsewhere.
Non-OPEC+ increases in supply are expected to be limited during the rest of 2023 despite
further cuts by OPEC+ in July and August.
There are a number of changes in demand and supply trends from the WEO-2022. Oil
demand reaches its maximum level in this Outlook’s STEPS around five years earlier than in
the WEO-2022 and total demand in 2050 is around 5 mb/d lower. This stems mainly fromfaster projected increase in EV sales in this Outlook in the light of additional policy support
130

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

as well as plans to establish EV manufacturing hubs in a number of emerging market anddeveloping economies. On the supply side, the fall in production from Russia is lessimmediate than projected in the WEO-2022, but the long-term decline remains similar.
Production by members of OPEC and by countries in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2050
is around 2 mb/d lower in each than projected in the WEO-2022, and production in North
America is around 1 mb/d lower. In this Outlook, oil prices remain flat in the STEPS at around
USD 80/barrel, whereas they gradually fall to USD 60/barrel by 2050 in the APS (Figure 3.19).
In the NZE Scenario, the price gradually falls to the marginal cost of oil production, dropping
to USD 40/barrel in 2030 and trending lower thereafter.

125

Oil demand

USD/barrel

mb/d

Figure 3.19 ⊳ Global oil demand and crude oil price by scenario, 2000-2050
100

150
120

75

90

50

60

25

30

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
STEPS

Oil price2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
APS

NZE
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Oil demand and prices peak in the late-2020s in the STEPS;
there are much sharper declines in both the APS and NZE Scenario

DemandIEA. CC BY 4.0.

In the STEPS, oil demand reaches its maximum level of 102 mb/d in the late 2020s before
declining slightly to 97 mb/d in 2050, with reduced demand in road transport as a result of
the rise of EVs offset by increased oil use in petrochemicals and in aviation. In practice, thiswould probably mean an undulating plateau lasting for many years with demand moving
slightly above and below a long-term average from year to year.
In the APS, there is a much more pronounced decline in demand, which falls to 93 mb/d in
2030 and to 55 mb/d in 2050. Oil demand in road transport modes falls more sharply, with
EVs accounting for more than 75% of passenger car and truck sales in 2050. Only inpetrochemicals and aviation is more oil used in 2050 than in 2022. There are plans to restrict
or ban the production and utilisation of single-use plastics and to scale up plastics recycling,
but these do not prevent an overall increase in global demand for plastics. The use ofsustainable aviation fuels increases, but oil use for aviation nevertheless grows to the
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

1313

mid‑2030s and then only declines slowly. Maritime oil use falls by 55% between 2022 and
2050, however, and half of the fuels used in ships in 2050 are low-emissions fuels. 6
In the NZE Scenario, oil demand falls to 77 mb/d in 2030. The electrification of cars and trucks
makes a bigger contribution than anything else to reduce oil use, but efficiency
improvements and low-emissions fuels also play an important role, especially in aviation andshipping. Oil demand falls to just under 25 mb/d in 2050: around 70% of this is accounted forby the use of oil as a petrochemical feedstock and in products such as paraffin waxes, asphalt
and bitumen where the oil is not combusted.
Across the three scenarios, there is a much wider variation in the demand outlook inemerging market and developing economies than in advanced economies. Oil demand inadvanced economies declines by between 35-85% through to 2050; in emerging market anddeveloping economies, it ranges from a 20% increase to a 70% decrease over this period.

mb/dFigure 3.20 ⊳ Global oil demand by sector and scenario, 2000-2050
STEPS

120

NZE

APS

90
60
30

2000
Cars

Trucks2022
Aviation

2050 2022
Shipping

Buildings

Power

2050 2022
Feedstock

2050

Other industry

Other

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Demand in the STEPS peaks by 2030; increases in aviation and petrochemicals mostly offset
declines elsewhere through to 2050; demand declines rapidly in the APS and NZE Scenario

Production

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In the STEPS, US tight oil production in 2022 stood at just over 7.5 mb/d and it increases byaround 2 mb/d to 2030; production peaks soon thereafter and falls back to around 8.5 mb/din 2050. There are also major contributions to the supply mix from Brazil and Guyana, with
Guyana increasing production to a maximum level of around 2 mb/d in the mid-2030s before
it declines slightly. Production in Russia declines by 3.5 mb/d between 2022 and 2050 as it
struggles to maintain output from existing fields or to develop large new ones. Total
6 In July 2023, the International Maritime Organization adopted a version of its greenhouse gas emissions
strategy that looks to achieve net zero emissions from international shipping by 2050, however, enforcement
mechanisms have yet to be decided. This strategy is not included in the APS.

132

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

production by members of OPEC increases by a modest 1 mb/d to 2030, given around
1.5 mb/d of declines from OPEC producers in Africa. OPEC and Russia’s combined share of
global oil supply remains between 45-48% to 2030 but it rises above 50% by 2050 as Saudi
Arabia increases production. We also assume that by then there is a gradual normalisationof the international situation in countries subject to sanctions, notably Iran and Venezuela,
and production from these countries rises.
In the APS, oil demand declines by 0.5% each year to 2030, but existing sources of supply fallat a faster rate, which means that new conventional crude oil projects are needed(Figure 3.21). Guyana is one of the few countries to see an increase in production of morethan 1 mb/d to 2030. There is continued drilling for tight oil in the United States, but
production peaks before 2030 and is around 1.5 mb/d lower in 2050 than 2022 levels.
Figure 3.21 ⊳ Oil production by OPEC and Russia and other non-OPEC
mb/dproducers by scenario, 2010-2050

60

OPEC and Russia

Non-OPEC excluding Russia

50
40
30
20
10
2010

Decline with nofuther investment
2020

2030

Investment in existing

2040

2050

2010

Investment in new

2020
STEPS

2030

2040
APS

2050
NZE

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

New oil projects are needed in the STEPS and APS, but not in the NZE Scenario;
OPEC and Russia take a larger share of the market in the NZE Scenario

In the NZE Scenario, oil demand declines by 2.5% each year on average to 2030 and can be
met without any new conventional long lead time oil projects. Production falls across all
regions to 2030. After 2030, oil demand falls by more than 5.5% each year: this is sufficiently
rapid to cause the closure of a number of higher cost projects before they have reached theend of their technical lifetimes.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Refining, trade and investment
The refining industry enjoyed bumper profits in recent years as a recovery in demand after
the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly for middle distillates such as diesel and kerosene,
coincided with the first net reduction in capacity in 30 years. The industry is now set to add
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

133

3

more than 6 mb/d of refining capacity, mostly in developing economies in Asia and the
Middle East: however, this wave of capacity additions is likely to be the last, with limited
capacity growth after 2030 projected in all scenarios. Transport fuels have historically been
the main cause of demand growth in refining over the past few decades but this is set to end:
in 2050, the share of gasoline in total demand drops from 25% today to 17% in the STEPS, to
14% in the APS, and to close to zero in the NZE Scenario.
Emerging market and developing economies in Asia currently account for just over 40% of
global crude oil imports. More robust demand and limited domestic production potential
cause this share to rise to 45-60% in 2050 in all scenarios. The Middle East remains the largest
crude oil exporter in all scenarios, but crude oil exports from North America and Latin
America and the Caribbean rise from a 23% share of the total today to 30% in the STEPS in
2050 and 40% in the APS. Russia’s share meanwhile continues to decline. In the NZE Scenario,
the Middle East plays an outsized role in serving global crude oil markets as a low costproducer, with its share in total exports reaching 65% by 2050. Most of the new refining
facilities currently under development are in product exporting regions, which means theavailability of oil products on the market is set to rise: the decline in product trade is much
more muted than the overall decline in demand in the APS and the NZE Scenario.

Billion USD (2022, MER)

Figure 3.22 ⊳ Global oil and natural gas investment by scenario, 2022-2050
1 000

STEPS

APS

NZE

750
500
250

2022 2023e
Upstream: existing fields

2030 2040 2050
2030 2040 2050
Upstream: new fields Oil transport

2030 2040 2050
Refining Gas transport
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Oil and gas investment is expected to increase in 2023 and to be similar to 2030 levelsin the STEPS; it is much higher than the levels needed in the APS and NZE Scenario

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: 2023e = estimated values for 2023. New field investment in the NZE Scenario in 2030 is for projects
that are currently under construction or those that are approved before the end of 2023.

At around USD 800 billion, expected oil and natural gas investment levels in 2023 are broadlyaligned with the level needed in the STEPS in 2030, which suggests that the oil and gas
industry today does not yet see a significant near-term reduction in demand as likely(Figure 3.22). In the APS, investment in new and existing fields is required to avoid supply
134

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

falling faster than demand, but the overall level of investment in 2030 falls to around
USD 630 billion. In the NZE Scenario, investment in existing fields is needed to ensure that
supply does not decline faster than demand, but no new conventional long lead time oil andgas projects are developed after 2023 and investment is much lower than today.
Reductions in fossil fuel investment need to be sequenced carefully with the scaling up ofinvestment in clean energy. Investing more than is needed when clean energy investment is
ramping up and efficiency measures are reducing demand would lead to lower prices andcould also risk lock-in of fossil fuel use. Conversely, reducing fossil fuel investment in advanceof action and investment to reduce demand would lead to much higher and more volatile
prices during energy transitions.

3.5.2

Natural gas

Table 3.6 ⊳Global gas demand, production and trade by scenario
STEPS

APS

NZE

2010

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

2030

Natural gas demand (bcm)

3 326

4 159

4 299

4 173

3 861

2 422

3 403

919

Power

1 346

1 638

1 570

1 409

1 436

776

1 435

112

Industry

692

861

970

1 061

868

654

788

325

Buildings

761

871

917

869

803

415

540

1

Transport

109

150

157

158

125

60

94

6

Low-emissions hydrogen inputs

2050

-

1

8

27

36

212

71

327

418

638

678

655

597

301

482

179

7

15

32

79

93

359

162

512

Natural gas production (bcm)

3 274

4 138

4 299

4 173

3 861

2 422

3 403

919

Conventional gas

2 769

2 871

2 894

3 016

2 742

1 940

2 363

627

Unconventional gas

504

1 266

1 405

1 157

1 119

482

1 040

293

Natural gas net trade (bcm)

640

810

919

921

827

370

719

187

LNG

276

479

611

656

588

242

507

121

Pipeline

364

331

309

265

246

125

220

47

Other
of which abated with CCUS

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Natural gas price (USD/MBtu)
United States

5.8

5.1

4.0

4.3

3.2

2.2

2.4

2.0

European Union

9.9

32.3

6.9

7.1

6.5

5.4

4.3

4.1

Japan

8.8

13.7

8.4

7.7

7.8

6.3

5.9

5.3

China

14.6

15.9

9.4

7.8

8.3

6.3

5.5

5.3

Low-emissions gases (bcme)

23

39

89

324

197

1 161

414

1 797

Low-emissions hydrogen

0

2

23

99

80

809

232

1 385

Biogas

23

28

42

89

51

117

56

129

Biomethane

1

9

24

136

66

235

126

283

Notes: bcm = billion cubic metres; CCUS = carbon capture, utilisation and storage; LNG = liquefied natural gas;
MBtu = million British thermal units; bcme = billion cubic metres equivalent (1 bcme of hydrogen = 0.3 million
tonnes). Net trade reflects volumes traded between regions modelled in the IEA Global Energy and Climate
Model and excludes intra-regional trade. Other includes other non-energy use, agriculture and other energy
sector. The difference between production and demand is due to stock changes.

Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

1353Natural gas markets have been upended by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The sharp reductionin pipeline supply to Europe tightened global gas markets, resulting in record high prices anda drop in global demand by around 1% in 2022. Demand fell by a record 13% in Europe, butthere were also ripple effects in emerging markets and developing economies in Asia, where
demand in aggregate fell for the first time ever. Major gas producing regions showedresilience, with output increasing in the Middle East by 3% and in the United States by 4%.
Global demand remained muted in the first half of 2023; China’s recovery has been uneven,while a retreat from record natural gas prices in Europe so far has not reinvigorated gas
consumption in the industry or power sectors.
The crisis prompted a scramble by gas importing countries around the world to securesupplies. This has boosted near-term prospects for additional investment, especially forliquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects. But responses to the crisis have also laid thegroundwork for a more rapid shift away from natural gas in Europe and the United States,
while more upbeat projections for renewables imply weaker natural gas demand growth,
especially in emerging markets in Asia.

Demandbcm

Figure 3.23 ⊳ Global natural gas demand by scenario, 2000-2050
APS

STEPS

5 000

NZE

4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
2050 2022

2000

2022

Buildings

Industry

Power

Hydrogen2050 2022
Transport

2050
Other
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Each scenario projects an end to growth for gas; future prospects depend largely on thepace and scale of growth in clean power, electrification and efficiency improvements.

In the STEPS, natural gas demand growth between 2022 and 2030 is much lower than the
2.2% average rate of growth seen between 2010 and 2021 (Figure 3.23). It reaches a peak by
2030, maintaining a long plateau before gradually declining by around 100 bcm by 2050.
In the APS, demand peaks even sooner, and is 7% lower by 2030 than 2022 levels. In the
NZE Scenario, demand falls by more than 2% per year from 2022 to 2030, and by nearly
8% per year between 2030 and 2040. Decline rates are moderated after 2040 by the growing
use of natural gas with CCUS for the production of low-emissions hydrogen.
136

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Natural gas demand declines in advanced economies in all scenarios. Robust support forclean energy reduces the share of natural gas in energy supply by 2030 in the power sector
and then increasingly in buildings and industry. There is a continued need for natural gas toback up variable renewables, and this is often highlighted as a reason for its enduring role intransitions, but this standby role requires much less consumption of natural gas thanoperating plants as baseload supply; moreover, the role of gas in ensuring flexibility overtime is complemented by other options such as batteries and demand response. By 2050,
gas demand in advanced economies falls to 1 200 bcm in the STEPS, 40% below the current
level. More rapid electrification of heat demand and efficiency gains bring gas down to480 bcm by 2050 in the APS and to 300 bcm in the NZE Scenario. There is a wider range ofpossible outcomes for natural gas demand in emerging market and developing economies(Figure 3.24). Major differences emerge by 2030, at a time when ample new LNG supplies
are anticipated, keeping gas prices low and potentially stimulating robust demand growth.
In the APS and NZE Scenario, this possibility is precluded by rapid growth of renewables in
the power sector, which starts to reduce the market share of natural gas after 2030.
Figure 3.24 ⊳ Natural gas demand by region and scenario, 2010-2050
bcm

Advanced economies

Emerging market and developing
economies

3 000

APS

2 000
STEPS

1 000

NZE

APS
NZE
2010

STEPS

2020

2030

United States
Asia

2040

2050

Europe
Other

2010

2020

Eurasia
Rest of Asia

2030

2040

Middle East
Africa

2050
China
Other
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Natural gas demand declines in advanced economies in each scenario; in emerging
market and developing economies the difference between scenario outcomes is larger

Production

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted major gas producers to bring new supplies to themarket. In 2022, upstream spending outside Russia shot up by more than 15%, with aroundhalf of planned new supply linked to export projects.
In the STEPS, the Middle East emerges as the main source of incremental global supply; its
global share of total production of natural gas rises from 15% in 2022 to 25% by 2050. In the
APS, Middle East production remains resilient as the sole region producing more gas in 2050
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

137

3

than in 2022 (Figure 3.25). The rate of decline in other regions is determined by the pipelineof projects under development in the near term, the ability of major producers to find export
outlets in a world where natural gas trade is shrinking, and the cost of developing new
supplies in the long run. Among exporting regions, the United States records impressive
supply growth to 2030 in the STEPS with an increase of 90 bcm in shale and tight gas
production. Over the longer term US production falls, contributing to an overall decline inproduction in North America of nearly 400 bcm between 2030 and 2050 – primarily due todeclining domestic demand. The loss of Russian gas supply to Europe and stagnant demandleads to a 300 bcm drop in Eurasian production by 2050.
In the NZE Scenario, global gas production falls sharply in all regions at a rate that implies
that some projects have to close before reaching the end of their technical lifetimes, though
growing gas use for hydrogen production slows the decline after 2040 in areas wherehydrogen is exported, notably the Middle East and Australia.
Figure 3.25 ⊳ Natural gas production by region in the Stated Policies andbcm

Announced Pledges scenarios, 2022-2050

1 500
1 200
900
600
300
North
AmericaEurasia

Middle
East
2022

Asia
Pacific
2022-2050:

EuropeAfricaSTEPS

C&S
AmericaAPS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

A global peak in gas demand in the STEPS leaves only a handful of regions producing morethan they did in 2022; production in the APS falls across the board, led by North America
Note: C & S America = Central and South America.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Trade and investment
Global natural gas trade in the STEPS increases nearly 15% between 2022 and 2030, which ishalf the rate of growth during the previous decade, but more than four-times higher thangrowth in overall natural gas demand to 2030 (Figure 3.26). Two-thirds of globally tradednatural gas is delivered as LNG in the STEPS by 2030, up from a level of around 50% in 2021.
Trade is also relatively resilient in the APS and NZE Scenario to 2030: total exports in 2030
are 20 bcm above their 2022 level in the APS and 90 bcm below it in the NZE Scenario.
138

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Figure 3.26 ⊳ Change in natural gas supply balance by region in theStated Policies and Announced Pledges scenarios, 2022-2030

Net importers
China
India
Other Dev. Asia
European Union
Other
Net exporters
Middle East
North America
Eurasia
Africa
Other

3

-200

-100
APS:
STEPS:

Domestic supply
Domestic supply

0
Net exports
Net exports

100

200
bcm
Net imports
Net imports
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Global gas trade shows resilience in both scenarios for the rest of this decadeNote: Other Dev. Asia = Other countries in developing Asia.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The United States, which accounts for over 90% of LNG export projects approved since thestart of 2022, solidifies its position as the world’s largest gas exporter through to 2030 in all
scenarios. Although exports also rise in the Middle East, notably from Qatar, most additional
production in the region to 2030 is needed to meet domestic demand. Russia fails to regain
its pre-2022 volumes of total gas exports in any of our scenarios. They fall another 20% by
2030 in the STEPS, as rising deliveries to China through the Power of Siberia pipeline andmodest growth in LNG exports are offset by further declines in pipeline exports to Europe. In
the APS, lower gas demand growth in China and a global surplus of LNG leaves Russia withfew options to diversify into non-European markets: despite modest incremental growth inexports to Türkiye and Central Asia, total exports fall 25% by 2030. Mozambique emerges asa large exporter by 2030, but Africa’s overall gas trade balance falls by 2030 in the STEPS as
LNG exports from West Africa decline and a higher share of North African gas production
goes towards meeting domestic demand. In the APS, a dearth of buyers willing to sign up for
new, long lead time export projects means African exports fall one-third below 2022 levels
by 2050.
Since natural gas demand peaks in all WEO scenarios by 2030, there is little headroom
remaining for either pipeline or LNG trade to grow beyond then. With around 650 bcm ofannual liquefaction capacity in operation and a further 250 bcm under construction, global
LNG markets look amply supplied in the STEPS until at least 2040. In the APS, LNG demand
peaks by 2030 and projects under construction today are sufficient to meet demand. In the
NZE Scenario, a global supply glut forms in the mid-2020s and under construction projects
are no longer necessary.
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

139In the STEPS, around USD 190 billion is invested each year to develop upstream gas between
2022 and 2030, and a further USD 40 billion is spent each year on LNG infrastructure. In the
APS, total investment spending falls to 80% of STEPS levels by 2030. In the NZE Scenario,
upstream investment in natural gas is limited to maintaining supply at existing projects andminimising the emissions intensity of production.
While the sponsors of all LNG projects currently under construction can expect to fully
recover their initial capital investment in the STEPS, around two-thirds of these projects are
at risk of not doing so in the APS, and up to 75% could fail to do so in the NZE Scenario. In
both the APS and NZE Scenario, a good deal of gas would probably end up being sold in an
over-supplied market at close to short-run marginal costs, although the degree of exposure
to volume and price risk between suppliers and off-takers would depend on contractual
arrangements. Some operators, notably in the case of pipelines, can take comfort fromprojected spending of USD 100 billion each year on hydrogen transport infrastructure in the
NZE Scenario by 2050: this could provide a route for them to diversify into low-emissions
gases.

3.5.3

Coal

Table 3.7 ⊳Global coal demand, production and trade by scenario (Mtce)
STEPS

APS

NZE

2010

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

2030

2050

World coal demand

5 218

5 807

5 007

3 465

4 377

1 530

3 257

499

Power

3 108

3 769

3 030

1 799

2 578

843

1852

240

Industry

1 688

1 614

1 642

1 463

1 457

647

1 239

234

Other sectors

422

424

335

203

302

41

167

26

of which abated with CCUS

0%

0%

0%

1%

0%

25%

3%

81%

Advanced economies

1 585

1 018

509

245

367

95

266

63

Emerging market anddeveloping economies

3 633

4 789

4 498

3 221

3 970

1 435

2 991

436

World coal production

5 235

6 122

5 007

3 465

4 337

1 530

3 257

499

Steam coal

4 069

4 888

3 974

2 669

3 388

1 135

2 457

397

Coking coal

866

988

886

691

830

350

739

100

Peat and lignite

300

246

146

105

120

45

60

2

Advanced economies

1 512

1 075

650

468

500

199

381

95

Emerging market anddeveloping economies

3 723

5 047

4 357

2 998

3 837

1 331

2 876

404

World coal trade

948

1 164

920

831

803

417

635

129

Trade as share of production

18%

19%

18%

24%

19%

27%

19%

26%

Coastal China steam coal price

153

196

87

72

71

56

58

45

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: Mtce = million tonnes of coal equivalent. Coastal China steam coal price reported in USD (2022)/tonne
adjusted to 6 000 kcal/kg. See Annex C for definitions.

The aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine led to coal demand reaching an all-time highin 2022, and that led to soaring prices and the disruption of traditional trade flows. Record
140International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

high coal prices and energy security concerns led to renewed coal investment in China andIndia, where domestic production was ramped up to reduce reliance on imports, and inIndonesia, a major supplier of these two economies. Elsewhere, countries did not use muchadditional coal, or not for very long: the increase in demand for coal in the European Union
due to the energy crisis in 2022 was equivalent to less than one day of coal demand in China.
Many governments, banks, investors – as well as mining companies – continue to show a lackof appetite for investment in coal, particularly steam coal (which is mainly used in the power
sector).
Unabated coal is proving to be a difficult fuel to dislodge from the global energy mix. In
advanced economies, there are signs that its share is being structurally eroded by the rapid
rise of renewables, but the overall outlook for coal depends to a large extent on
developments in emerging market and developing economies. China is especially importantin this context, since it accounts for at least half of all coal demand throughout the Outlook
period across all scenarios. In the power sector, coal transitions are complicated by the
relatively young age of coal plants across much of the Asia Pacific region: plants in developing
economies in Asia are on average less than 15 years old.

DemandThe outlook for coal is heavily dependent on the strength of the world’s resolve to address
climate change (Figure 3.27). In the STEPS, coal demand declines gradually. In the APS, it
drops 25% below current levels by 2030, and 75% by 2050; coal demand peaks in China inthe mid-2020s and in India in the late 2020s. In the NZE Scenario, global demand falls byaround 45% by 2030 and 90% by 2050.

Mtce

Figure 3.27 ⊳ Change in coal demand by region, sector and scenario, 2022-50
2030-2050

2022-2030

500

Power
Industry
Other

0
- 500
-1 000-1 500-2 000

Advanced economies

EMDE

Advanced economies

NZE

APS

STEPS

NZE

APS

STEPS

NZE

APS

STEPS

NZE

APS

-3 000

STEPS-2 500EMDE
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Coal demand drops sharply in the NZE Scenario from 2022 and in the APS from 2030,
mostly due to pledges from China and India to achieve net zero emissions after 2050
Notes: Mtce = million tonnes of coal equivalent; EMDE = emerging market and developing economies. Other
includes buildings, agriculture and other energy sector.

Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

1413

In advanced economies, coal-fired power plants are rapidly replaced by renewables andother low-emissions alternatives in the power sector in all scenarios, and there is a continued
focus on replacing coal in the industry sector, where new technologies and efficiency gains
help to reduce coal demand in steel production and other industries. In China, coal use also
falls in all scenarios, with progress speeding up in the APS from 2030 and in the NZE Scenario
from now onwards. In India and other emerging market and developing economies, theoutlook for coal varies markedly between scenarios. In the STEPS, coal demand increases tothe mid-2030s and then mostly plateaus, with reductions in the power sector being offset byhigher demand from the industry sector. In the APS and NZE Scenario, patterns of coaldemand are similar to those seen in China.
There is very limited use of CCUS with coal in the STEPS. Around 400 million tonnes of coalequivalent (Mtce) of coal demand in 2050 is equipped with CCUS in both the APS and NZE
Scenario: this equates to around 25% of demand in the APS and more than 80% in the NZE
Scenario. Unabated coal use drops by over 98% between 2021 and 2050 in the NZE Scenario.

Production
Global coal production rose above 6 billion tonnes of coal equivalent in 2022, its highest level
ever. Energy prices and energy security concerns led China, India, Indonesia and other majorcoal producers to expand domestic supply, but this increase in supply may be short lived(Figure 3.28). New mine developments, especially those which would produce steam coal,
are facing concerns about future demand, difficulties accessing finance and scrutiny onenvironmental, social and governance issues.
Figure 3.28 ⊳ Global coal supply and type by scenario
Mtce

Coal supply

Coal type

6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
2010

2020
STEPS

2030
APS

2040

2050
NZE

2022

STEPS APS NZE STEPS APS NZE
2030
2050
Steam coal Coking coal Lignite and peat
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Coal production falls by nearly 45% between 2022 and 2050 in the STEPS, 75% in the APS
and over 90% in the NZE Scenario; coking coal supply declines much less than steam coal
Note: Mtce = million tonnes of coal equivalent.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

In the STEPS, global coal supply falls gradually to 2030, with increases in India offset by
reductions in advanced economies, and then drops by about 30% from 2030 to 2050. In the
APS, supply declines by 30% to 2030 and by 75% to 2050, compared to 2022 levels. Steamcoal falls by over 3 750 Mtce by 2050 (75% reduction), while coking coal falls by less than
650 Mtce (65% reduction). Production in China falls by 2 680 Mtce (80% reduction),
accounting for close to 60% of the global decline in supply. Production in India falls by
260 Mtce (60% reduction). The leading exporters, Australia and Indonesia, see production
fall by around 85% and 65% respectively between 2022 and 2050. In the NZE Scenario, global
coal production declines by 45% to 2030 and a further 85% between 2030 and 2050.
Remaining production in 2050 is around 400 Mtce of steam coal and 100 Mtce of coking coal.

Trade
The Asia Pacific region is the main driver of international coal trade, accounting for aroundthree-quarters of global coal imports in 2022 (Figure 3.29). China was the largest importer(around 230 Mtce), while Australia and Indonesia were the two main coal exporters,
together accounting for 60% of coal exports in 2022. Australia alone provided half of all
coking coal exports.
Figure 3.29 ⊳ Top coal importers and exporters by scenario,
2022, 2030 and 2050
Importers

Importers
China
India
Japan
Korea
EuropeOther imp.
Exporters
Australia
Indonesia
RussiaOther exp.

Exporters

2030

STEPS
APS
NZE

2050

2022

STEPS
APS
NZE
-1 200

- 600

0

600

1 200
Mtce
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Coal trade diminishes in volume but increases asa share of production to 2050 in all scenarios

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: Other imp. = other importers; Other exp. = other exporters; Mtce = million tonnes of coal equivalent.

In the STEPS, India becomes the world’s largest coal importer in the late 2020s: its imports
rise by almost 10% to 2030 while China’s decrease by nearly 30%. In 2050, India imports 25%
more coal than in 2022, most of which is coking coal. This changes the dynamics of exporting
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economies: Australian exports, which are around 50% coking coal, increase by 5% to 2050,
while Indonesia, mainly a steam coal exporter, sees exports fall by 40%.
In the APS, global coal trade falls by 30% to 2030 and by 65% to 2050 compared to 2022.
Around 420 Mtce of coal is imported in 2050, mainly by countries with large distances
between domestic production and consumption hubs and where differences in coal quality
require domestic production to be supplemented with imports. Imports of coking coal in
India increase by more than 55% to 2030 as it expands steel production. Indonesian exports
drop by nearly 35% to 2030 as the market for steam coal shrinks. Australia produces a higher
proportion of coking coal than Indonesia and initially fares better, with coal exports falling
by 5% to 2030, although its exports subsequently fall by over 45% between 2030 and 2050.
In the NZE Scenario, global coal trade declines by 90% between 2022 and 2050 as clean
energy technologies progressively and speedily displace coal across the energy system. In
2050, advanced economies import small quantities of coal that is mostly used with CCUS to
produce steel or supply power during demand peaks.

Investment
Despite renewed interest in 2022, investment in coal supply and coal-fired power worldwide
has fallen around 15% since 2015. Most new projects in recent years have been in China andIndia, which together accounted for around 80% of global investment in coal-fired power
plants and supply in 2022 (Figure 3.30).
Figure 3.30 ⊳ Average annual investment in coal supply and coal-fired power
Billion USD (2022, MER)

generation by region and scenario, 2010-2050
2030

300
Advanced economies

250
200

2050

Other EMDE

150
100
50

China

2010

2022

STEPS

APS

NZE STEPS

APS

NZE

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Investment in coal falls in each scenario this decade: investment in 2030 is about 50% lower
than recent years in the STEPS, 70% lower in the APS and 80% lower in the NZE Scenario
Notes: EMDE = emerging market and developing economies. Includes demand from coal-fired power plants
equipped with carbon capture.

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3.5.4Modern bioenergy

Modern bioenergy comes in solid, liquid and gaseous forms. Together these fuels make up
more than half of global renewables supply today. Overall production increased 5% in 2022
to reach 40 EJ.
Solid bioenergy currently accounts for the vast majority of production. It is mostly derived
from organic waste sources, such as forestry residues or municipal solid waste, and oftenpelletised for use in power generation or industry, with a small but important share used in
the buildings sector. In the STEPS, modern solid bioenergy reaches 44 EJ in 2030 and 57 EJ in
2050. In the APS and the NZE Scenario, production rises to more than 70 EJ by 2050. This
provides dispatchable renewable power, a cost-competitive source of clean heat for industry
and an alternative to the traditional use of solid biomass in emerging market and developing
economies.
Figure 3.31 ⊳ Global bioenergy supply by type and scenario, 2022-2050

STEPS APS
Transformation
Industry

NZE
Buildings
Power

2030
2050

150
2030
2050

20
2030
2050

2

2030
2050

300

2022

40

2030
2050

4

2030
2050

450

2030
2050

60

2022

6

STEPS APS NZEAdvanced
Conventional

Gases (bcme)

600

2030
2050

Solids (EJ)

80

2030
2050

Liquids (mboe/d)

2022

8

STEPS APS NZEBiomethane
BiogasIEA. CC BY 4.0.

Full sustainable potential of bioenergy of around 100 EJ is fully exploited in the APS
and NZE Scenario, with its different forms used across the clean energy economy
Note: mboe/d = million barrels of oil equivalent per day; EJ = exajoules; bcme = billion cubic metre equivalent.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Liquid biofuels production increased by nearly 5% in 2022 to 2.2 mboe/d. In the STEPS,
production increases at around 4% annually, reaching 3 mboe/d in 2030 and over 4 mboe/din 2050. In the APS, it rises faster as liquid biofuels are increasingly used to help meet
Nationally Determined Contribution and net zero emissions targets. In the NZE Scenario,
liquid biofuels use expands more rapidly to 2030 than in the APS but then decreases below
the level in the APS by 2050. The reduced demand for liquid biofuels in the NZE Scenario in
2050 compared with the APS is driven by several factors, including faster uptake of EVs, more
rapid efficiency improvements in road vehicles, shipping vessels and airplanes, and reduced
demand for aviation due to behaviour change.
Biogas and biomethane are the smallest part of the bioenergy supply chain, but there is
growing interest in biomethane in particular as a source of low-emissions domestic gas
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3

supply, especially in Europe. Worldwide around 300 bcm of potential production fromagricultural wastes and residues lies within 20 kilometres of major gas pipeline
infrastructure, providing a good match with possible large-scale production and injection
into gas networks (Figure 3.32). In the STEPS, combined biogas and biomethane production
nearly doubles by 2030 to reach 80 billion cubic metres equivalent (bcme). In all scenarios,
the share of biomethane in total biogas demand increases, driven in large part by the value
attached to its use as a dispatchable source of energy and drop-in substitute for natural gas.
In the APS, total biomethane production reaches 240 bcme by 2050; in the NZE Scenario, thisrises to nearly 300 bcme.
Figure 3.32 ⊳ Assessed yearly biomethane potential from agricultural wastes

and residues, and location of natural gas transmission pipelines

Million m3 per 100 km2< 0.5

0.5 - 1.0

1.0 - 1.5

1.5 - 2.0

2.0 - 2.5

2.5 - 3.0

> 3.0

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Around 300 bcm of biomethane could be produced from agricultural wastes, upgraded tomeet pipeline quality standards and subsequently injected into nearby gas pipelines
Source: IEA analysis based on Global Energy Monitor (2022); UN FAO (2023).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Total modern bioenergy supply is around 65 EJ in the APS by 2030 and over 70 EJ in the
NZE Scenario (Figure 3.31). By 2050, the total sustainable potential assessed by the IEA ofaround 100 EJ is fully exploited in both the APS and the NZE Scenario, with large increases in
the use of organic wastes and short rotation woody crops more than offsetting a decline in
the use of conventional bioenergy crops and the traditional use of solid biomass. Around 10%of total bioenergy use in the NZE Scenario is equipped with bioenergy carbon capture andstorage (BECCS) by 2050, and this plays a critical role in offsetting residual emissions. The
share of advanced liquid biofuels in total production rises from more than 10% today to 55%
in 2050 in the APS and around 75% in the NZE Scenario. In all scenarios, maximising the useof advanced biofuels helps to expand biofuel production in a way that has minimal impact
on land use, food and feed prices. 7
7 Advanced biofuels are produced from non‐food crop feedstocks, which can deliver significant life cycle
greenhouse gas emissions savings compared with fossil fuel alternatives and do not directly compete withfood and feed crops for agricultural land or cause adverse sustainability impacts.

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3.6

Key clean energy technology trends

Solar PV and wind
Solar PV and wind are set to dominate power capacity additions. Globally, they account forover 70% of total capacity additions between now and 2050 in all WEO scenarios. They do so
because they are now the cheapest new sources of electricity in most markets, widely
available and enjoy policy support in over 140 countries.
Global solar PV capacity additions, including both rooftop solar and utility-scale projects,
reached a record high of 220 GW in 2022, twice the level in 2019 and more than seven-times
the level ten years earlier. In the STEPS, capacity additions rise to 500 GW in 2030 and
580 GW in 2050: this includes replacements of solar panels that typically last 20-30 years(Figure 3.33). In the APS, capacity additions rise faster, reaching 640 GW in 2030 and 770 GW
in 2050. In the NZE Scenario, capacity additions reach 820 GW by 2030 and the same level isachieved in 2050. Solar PV on buildings, including rooftops, represents about half of total
solar PV capacity additions today, and this more than doubles to 2030 in all three scenarios.
Off-grid solar home systems play a vital role in closing electricity access gaps in sub-SaharanAfrica, and their use increases too (see Chapter 4, section 4.4). However, utility-scale projects
make up the majority of new solar capacity in all scenarios, in large part because of theirsignificantly lower levelised costs of electricity.
Figure 3.33 ⊳ Solar PV and wind capacity additions by scenario, 2018-2030
GW

Solar PV

Wind

800

400

600

300

400

200

200

100

2018

2020

World

2022 STEPS APS NZE
2018
2020
2030
EuropeUnited States
China

2022 STEPS APS NZE
2030
Rest of world
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Solar PV and wind capacity additions double by 2030 in the STEPS
and expand nearly fourfold in the NZE Scenario

China is the largest solar PV market, accounting for 45% of all capacity additions in 2022. It
maintains its leading role in all scenarios, accounting for about half of global cumulative
additions from 2023 to 2050 in the STEPS and about 40% in the APS. Its rapid growth in
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3

deployment is supported by huge domestic solar manufacturing capacity (see Chapter 1).
In 2022, the next largest markets for solar PV were the European Union (17% of global
additions), United States (9%) and India (8%). These remain leading markets in all scenarios,
complemented by increasing deployment in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
Global wind capacity additions dropped to 75 GW in 2022. While this level is nearly a third
below the peak in 2020, it remains above deployment levels before 2020. By the end of thisdecade, global wind capacity additions rise to 175 GW per year in the STEPS as technology
continues to improve and costs to fall, though additional manufacturing capacity is required
to meet this level of demand. By 2050, annual deployment levels reach 195 GW, taking into
account replacements of ageing wind turbines. In the APS, 240 GW of wind capacity areadded in 2030, increasing to 310 GW in 2050. In the NZE Scenario, these figures rise to320 GW in 2030 and 350 GW in 2050. Offshore installations account for just 15% of windcapacity additions today, but their share roughly doubles by 2030 across all scenarios.
China is the largest market for wind power, as it is for solar PV. It accounted for half of global
capacity additions in 2022 and is responsible for around 40% of global cumulative windcapacity additions from 2023 to 2050 in the STEPS and around 28% in the APS. The European
Union (18% of global additions), United States (11%) and Brazil (4%) were other leading
markets in 2022 and continue to be so across all scenarios.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Scaling up and maintaining much higher levels of solar PV and wind power generation
requires action to address a number of barriers, including those related to:Permitting and licensing of new projects. Work to complete the necessary regulatory
steps for new projects, including environmental assessments where applicable, candelay individual projects by years and slow market growth. Standardising andstreamlining these processes, while ensuring that they involve local communities, willbe critical to clean energy transitions (IEA, 2023a).



Grid development and connections. Modernising, digitalising and reinforcing existing
electricity networks can take years, and the same is true for the addition of new gridconnections. Streamlining permitting and licensing processes would help with this, buttimely grid development also calls for improved long-term planning and the scaling up
of investment to support the rapid deployment of wind and solar PV (IEA, 2023c).

Expanding wind manufacturing capacity and improving the financial health of wind
supply chains. Despite low levelised costs of electricity and recent market growth, themanufacture of turbines and other equipment needed for wind power involves thinprofit margins as a result of uncertainty about commodity prices and the way that
auction schemes are operated. Measures to mitigate these risks, including throughcontract terms, are needed to ensure that they do not endanger the wind industry and
impede clean energy transitions.



Enhancing power system flexibility to integrate rising shares of solar PV and wind. Action
to enhance power system flexibility is essential to make the best use of solar PV andwind. Battery storage and demand response have a major part to play in meeting short-

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

term flexibility needs, while hydropower and thermal sources will play a central part in
the provision of seasonal flexibility (see Chapter 4). Reliable supplies of critical minerals
will also be essential.

Electric vehicles
The share of EVs cars in global car sales more than tripled to 14% in the last two years. Further
record sale levels are expected in 2023, particularly in the United States. China is the mostimportant market for electric cars: more than half of all the electric cars on the road today
are in China, which has already exceeded its 2025 target for new energy vehicle sales.
In the STEPS, nearly 40 million electric cars are purchased in 2030, accounting for nearly 40%
of all vehicle sales. This is well above the 25% projection for 2030 in the WEO-2022 and not
far behind the level of purchases in the APS (Figure 3.34). This more optimistic outlook is due
to new voluntary EV targets by major automakers as well as new vehicle standards, mandates
and subsidies in China, European Union and United States. In the NZE Scenario, the share ofelectric cars account for two-thirds of total sales by 2030. If they all come to fruition, plansthat have been announced for battery manufacturing capacity would be sufficient to meetdemand for EV batteries in the NZE Scenario in 2030.
Figure 3.34 ⊳ Global share of electric vehicle sales by type and scenario,
2022 and 2030

80%Light-duty vehicles

Heavy trucks

Two/three-wheelers

60%
40%
20%

2022

STEPS APS NZE
2030
Battery electric2022

STEPS APS NZE
2030
Fuel cell electric2022

STEPS APS NZE
2030
Plug-in hybrid electric
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Electric car sales shares nearly triple in the STEPS, around 40% below NZE Scenario levels,
though electric truck sales in the STEPS are nearly four-times lower than in the NZE Scenario

Two/three-wheelers already have the highest electrification shares today of any roadtransport mode, in particular in emerging market and developing economies, and that looks
set to continue as infrastructure requirements and cost premiums are limited. However, lessthan 1% of heavy trucks sold today are electric, and limited progress is made in the STEPS,
where sales in 2030 are nearly four-times lower than in the NZE Scenario. More widespread
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3

deployment of charging infrastructure is needed to increase the rate of heavy trucks
electrification, especially in emerging market and developing economies. Deployment levels
are higher for electric buses, which are already cost competitive on a lifetime basis and areoften subsidised by local municipalities.

Heat pumps
Global sales of heat pumps in the buildings sector increased by 11% in 2022, marking thesecond year of double-digit growth for this central technology in the world’s transition tosecure and sustainable heating. Heat pumps overtook sales of fossil fuel-based heating
systems in key markets such as France and the United States, while sales doubled in various
European countries where financial incentives and bans on fossil fuel boilers have helped tobuild momentum (section 3.3.3). Manufacturing capacity is expanding rapidly, and further
announcements from key manufacturers are expected, driven by new deployment targets,
direct industry support and incentives for consumers.
Figure 3.35 ⊳ Global heat pump sales and stock by scenario, 2010-2030
Share in heating equipment sales

GWth

60%

40%

2 000

20%

1 000

2010

2022

STEPS APS NZE
2030

Stock

3 000

2010

2022

STEPS APS NZE
2030
Advanced economies
EMDE
EA. CC BY 4.0.

Share of heat pumps in heating equipment sales doubles by 2030 in the STEPS andincreases fourfold in the NZE Scenario, tripling global heat pump capacity

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: EMDE = emerging market and developing economies; GWth = gigawatts thermal.

Today, heat pumps account for around 10% of sales of residential heating equipment
worldwide. Sales growth is particularly strong for air-to-water heat pumps in Europe where
they typically replace gas-fired boilers. By 2030, the share of heat pumps in heating
equipment sales is set to more than double in the STEPS and to reach around a third in the
APS (Figure 3.35). The global installed capacity of heat pumps more than doubles by 2030 in
the STEPS from around 1 000 gigawatts thermal (GWth) in 2022, while APS deployment levels
are close to 2 500 GWth by 2030. Between 2022 and 2030, global heat pump deployment
saves more than 5 EJ of fossil fuels in the APS. However, upfront costs often remain high,150

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

particularly for low income households, while the design of electricity tariffs and energy
taxation still put heat pumps at a disadvantage relative to fossil fuel boilers in somecountries. Meeting existing targets also requires more installers and faster progress in colder
climates, multi-family apartment buildings and homes with retrofit requirements. Efforts areramped up further to tackle these obstacles in the NZE Scenario, where the global heat pumpstock expands to nearly 3 000 GWth by 2030: more than two-thirds of which is installed inadvanced economies.

3

Hydrogen
Progress in scaling up low-emissions hydrogen continues apace, with investment in projects
reaching USD 1 billion in 2022 and a raft of new policies around the world boosting
confidence. 8 In May 2023, a new record was set for the world’s largest operational
electrolyser plant – a 260 megawatt facility in China that will replace hydrogen from natural
gas in an oil refinery – and a 2 GW project in Saudi Arabia reached a final investment decision
after the company, Air Products, agreed to shoulder the off-take risk for its ammonia trade.
Increasingly, such projects are linked to dedicated renewable electricity supplies rather thanrelying mostly on the electricity grid. If all announced projects come to fruition, more than
400 GW of electrolysis could be operational by 2030. Two projects in Canada and theUnited States have started construction to produce hydrogen from natural gas with a targetof 95% CO2 capture, which would result in a combined hydrogen capacity equivalent to
1.4 GW of electrolysis (at a 90% capacity factor) (IEA, 2023d).
The near-term outlook is clouded by cost inflation, uncertainty around policy details andsupply chain bottlenecks. In the STEPS, 7 Mt of low-emissions hydrogen is produced in 2030,
most of which replaces existing supplies of hydrogen for ammonia plants and refineries(Figure 3.36). In the APS, low-emissions hydrogen demand reaches 25 Mt in 2030, and thisrises in the NZE Scenario to 69 Mt. These trajectories depend on much stronger policies thanthose in the STEPS to bolster demand, finance demonstration projects and support
infrastructure expansion.
Dilemmas facing electrolyser manufacturers illustrate some of the value chain challenges for
low-emissions hydrogen. Taken together, the available manufacturing capacities announced
by electrolyser manufacturers total 14 GW, half of which is in China, where the domestic
market is increasing rapidly. However, output to date has been much lower, estimated atjust above 1 GW in 2022, and many of the plants in development are progressing slowly
because hydrogen producers are reluctant to commit to electrolyser purchase contracts atcurrent prices, which have risen due to inflation. Meanwhile, a fall in natural gas prices anda corresponding increase in relative costs for electrolysis hydrogen have spurred competition
to maintain profit margins among players along the value chain. Without the opportunity to
get large-scale systems installed quickly and used commercially, manufacturers cannot

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

8 Low-emissions hydrogen includes: those produced from water using electricity generated by renewables or

nuclear, bioenergy, other fuels equipped to avoid greenhouse gas emissions, e.g. via CCUS with a high capture
rate and low upstream methane emissions; other sources with an equivalent CO2 intensity (IEA, 2023e).
Demand for low-emissions hydrogen includes its use to produce hydrogen-based fuels.

Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

151accumulate sufficient operating hours to provide industry standard performance guarantees,
exacerbating risks and inflating costs for the most efficient designs. The scale-up of
production in all scenarios is predicated on a break in this cycle and better co-ordination of
manufacturing investments, low-emissions hydrogen production projects and demand
creation.
Figure 3.36 ⊳ Global hydrogen demand by sector and scenario, 2022-2050

RefiningIndustry
Transport
Transport fuelproduction
Power
Other

STEPS

2030
2050

APS

2030
2050

NZE

2022

2030
2050
100

200

300
400
Million tonnes of hydrogen
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Demand for low-emissions hydrogen increases 60% per year to 2030 in the APS, but despite
continued strong growth, by 2050 it is at only 60% of the level required in the NZE Scenario
Notes: Other includes the buildings and agriculture sectors. Transport fuel production includes inputs tohydrogen-based fuels and liquid biofuel upgrading. Ammonia for power generation is included in power inunits of hydrogen input to ammonia plants.

Carbon capture, utilisation and storage

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

For the first time in a decade, multiple CCUS projects are in construction around the world.
Total investment in projects reached a record USD 3 billion in 2022. The outlook for CCUS isfor continued growth. Momentum is fuelled by activity in North America, where moregenerous tax credits and new grant funding programmes are the driving forces behindannouncements of over 100 projects across the CCUS value chain since January 2022. The
global project pipeline now represents over 400 Mt CO2 capture capacity vying to be online
by 2030. In the United States, where a fixed amount of funding is available per tonne of CO2
safely stored, many of the projects focus on capturing CO2 from bioethanol and hydrogenproduction, since these are among the cheapest options. Notable progress also is being madeelsewhere, with investment in large-scale projects in Canada and China, and key regulatory
advances in Canada, Denmark, Indonesia, Japan and Malaysia.
Current policies, however, are wholly insufficient to support the outcomes that match
government net zero emissions pledges. In the STEPS, CCUS deployment grows nearly
threefold from the 40 Mt CO2 captured in 2022 to 115 Mt CO2 in 2030 (Figure 3.37), three152

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

quarters of which is in North America and Asia Pacific. This increase is dwarfed by the
projections in the APS, which sees CCUS increase more than tenfold in the period to 2030.The
APS also projects more regional diversity, with the share of captured CO2 in Europe rising toabove 15% of the global total, over half of it in the European Union. The requirements of the
NZE Scenario are even more ambitious, as more countries and sectors adopt best available
technologies to mitigate emissions from industrial plants and to meet global demand for lowemissions hydrogen. In the NZE Scenario, around 1 Gt CO2 is captured in 2030, including
265 Mt CO2 from bioenergy and direct air capture, almost 90% of which is geologically stored.
Figure 3.37 ⊳ Global CO2 captured by source and scenario, 2022-2050

Industry
Power
HydrogenDirect air capture
Fuel production

STEPS

2030
2050

APS

2030
2050

NZE

2022

2030
2050
1

2

3

4

5

6
Gt CO₂
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

More CCUS projects become competitive as climate ambitions rise and sectors need to
fully mitigate emissions; NZE Scenario projects 6 Gt CO2/year captured and stored by 2050

Reaching the levels of CCUS projected in the APS and NZE Scenario requires strong policy
support, including measures to facilitate strategic investment in infrastructure. For example,
the total length of existing CO2 pipelines is 9 500 kilometres (km), which needs to increase to
between 100 000 and 600 000 km in order to facilitate the storage of 5.5 Gt CO2 andutilisation of a further 0.6 Gt CO2 in the NZE Scenario by 2050 (IEA, 2023f). The high end of
this range is a similar order of magnitude to the more than 1 million km of natural gas
transmission pipelines that have come online over the past century. Enabling such a hugescale-up, and a parallel investment in seaborne CO2 transport, requires new businesses thatoffer commercial CO2 transport and storage services. There are signs that these are emerging
in some regions, exemplified by the development of the Northern Lights CO2 storage
resource in Norway, where there are now agreements that could lead to CO2 beingtransported to the site from facilities in Denmark, Netherlands, Norway and United Kingdom.
The European Commission has proposed that oil and gas producers take legal responsibility
for ensuring the development of European CO2 storage resources, initially targeting
50 Mt CO2/year of capacity by 2030. Policy developments of this type have the potential toaccelerate progress.
Chapter 3 | Pathways for the energy mix

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3

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Chapter 4
Secure and people-centred energy transitions
Critical ingredients for success
S U M M A R Y• Secure energy transitions depend on keeping the global average surface temperaturerise below 1.5 °C. The temperature today is around 1.2 °C above pre-industrial levels,and global emissions have not yet peaked. In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), thetemperature rises to 1.9 °C in 2050 and 2.4 °C in 2100. This is 0.1 °C lower thanprojected in the STEPS from the World Energy Outlook-2022, but far above the levelsof the Paris Agreement. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), the temperaturerise in 2100 is 1.7 °C; in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, thetemperature peaks in mid-century and falls to around 1.4 °C in 2100.

• Energy transitions do not bring an end to traditional risks to energy security. Global
oil and gas trade becomes increasingly focussed on flows between the Middle East
and Asia, exposing importers to a variety of risks. Electricity faces rising short-term
flexibility needs which can be met through demand response and storage, and risingseasonal flexibility needs which can be met by hydropower and thermal sources, allenabled by expanding and modernising grids.

• Energy transitions also bring new risks to energy security. One set of risks relate tosupply chains for clean energy technologies and for critical minerals. Supply chains forboth are highly geographically concentrated. Diversified investment to meet growing
demand can help, but international partnerships will also be necessary.

• Another set of risks relate to the people-centred aspects of energy transitions,

including what they mean for access, affordability and employment. The number ofpeople without access to clean cooking (2.3 billion) and electricity (760 million) today
fall by around 15% to 2030 in the STEPS, by two-thirds in the APS, and to zero in the
NZE Scenario in response to measures to improve access. Household energy bills in
advanced economies fall by nearly 20% in the STEPS to 2030, as fossil fuel use drops
and energy efficiency gains accrue. In emerging market and developing economies,
fossil fuel subsidies need to be phased out carefully to limit impacts on household
budgets. Estimates of new jobs created range from 7 million in the STEPS to 30 million
in the NZE Scenario: these increases outweigh losses in fossil fuel and relatedindustries but will often be in new locations and require new skills.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• Prospects for secure and people-centred energy transitions depend on securing highlevels of investment. Energy investment levels show encouraging trends forrenewables and electric vehicles, but there are large energy investment gaps inemerging market and developing economies other than China, and investment inmost end-use areas is lagging in all regions. The expected level of oil and gas
investment in 2023 is similar to the amounts required in the STEPS in 2030 and far
above the levels needed in the APS and NZE Scenario, implying that the oil and gas
industry does not expect there to be any significant near-term reduction in demand.

Chapter 4 | Secure and people-centred energy transitions

155

CO2 emissions and2100 temperature rise

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

33

All further temperature rises carry risks:
those in the STEPS would risk particularly
extreme consequences for global
ecosystems and human well-being.

35

37

STEPS

31

32
24

APS

30

l

ica

tor

His
19
NZE

Median surface
temperature2010+2.4 °C
12

6

2022

+1.7 °C

India

2030

+1.4 °C

79
China

2040
ro
t ze
Ne

Solar PV
2050

2100

Million people
without access

Clean technology
supply chain geography
in 2030

European Union

15

8
64
Wind

Clean cooking

United States

11

3 000

Electricity

2 000

15
26

Batteries

1 000

24

21

68

Electrolysers
Argentina

STEPS

APS

16

36

NZE

54

28
Rest of world
Developing Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa

Chile

STEPS

APS

NZE

2030

2022

2010

Heat pumpIndonesia

Access to modern energy
Transitions depend on placing people at the centre of
discussions. Particular help is needed for those that currently
lack access to modern energy services.

Lithium chemical
CanadaFinland

8
5
58

72

Refined nickel

Refined cobalt

4.1

Introduction

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine turned strains in energy supply related to the Covid-19 pandemic
into a full-blown energy crisis. Consumers around the world were exposed to higher energy
bills and supply shortages, providing a stark reminder of the importance of secure, affordable
and people-centred energy transitions, and of the risks that could undermine suchtransitions. Traditional risks to energy security do not disappear in energy transitions, andthere are potential new vulnerabilities in a more electrified and renewables-rich system. New
risks arise in addition from the impact that our changing climate is producing on weather
patterns. Successful transitions also depend on placing people at the centre of discussions
about the future of energy: they cannot be achieved without sustained support andparticipation from citizens, and particular help is needed for those that currently lack accessto modern energy services.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

This chapter examines several key aspects of people-centred and secure energy transitions.
It is divided into four sections:First, it highlights the nature and scale of the risks posed in our projections by a range ofenergy-related environmental hazards, including carbon dioxide and methane
emissions, and examines their implications for the global temperature rise and air
pollution.

Second, it reviews how traditional and new energy security hazards play out in the
scenario projections. Traditional fuel security risks persist against a backdrop of more
fragmented international energy markets, while new risks arise for electricity security
as both power supply and demand become more variable. In addition, there are major
uncertainties about the resilience of clean energy supply chains, including for criticalminerals.



The third section further develops the people-centred aspects of energy transitions,starting with the provision of access to electricity and to clean cooking fuels. It examines
the implications of the scenario projections for the affordability of energy supply andenergy employment, as well as the behavioural changes needed to achieve rapid energy
transitions.



Ultimately, the prospects for affordable, sustainable and secure energy supply boil down
to questions about investment. The fourth section discusses capital flows to the energy
sector and looks at what faster energy transitions mean for investment in fossil fuels.

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4.2

Environment and climate

4.2.1

Emissions trajectory and temperature outcomes

Emissions and temperature outcomes by scenario
The global average surface temperature rise now stands at around 1.2 degrees Celsius (°C)
above pre-industrial levels. This year has seen a number of extreme weather events,
including heat waves and droughts in many parts of the world. These have had major impacts
on those affected by them. They have also put significant strain on power systems bycurtailing supply from sources like hydro and thermal power, and dramatically increasing
demand for space cooling.
Global energy-related CO2 emissions rose to an all-time high of 37 gigatonnes of carbon
dioxide (Gt CO2) in 2022. In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), emissions remain largely flat
until the late 2020s and then decline slowly to 30 Gt CO2 in 2050. In the Announced Pledges
Scenario (APS), emissions fall by just over 2% per year to 31 Gt CO2 in 2030 and then fall
further to 12 Gt CO2 in 2050. In the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario, emissions
drop by more than 5% per year to 24 Gt CO2 in 2030 and then fall to net zero in 2050
(Figure 4.1). The NZE Scenario also assumes rapid reductions in CO2 emissions from land use,which reach net zero just after 2030, and in emissions of all non-CO2 greenhouse gases.
Global energy-related and industrial process CO2 emissions by
scenario and temperature rise above pre-industrial levels in 2100
Temperature rise in 2100

CO2 emissions

40°C

Gt CO₂

Figure 4.1 ⊳

STEPS

30
20

APS

10

4

5th - 95th
percentile
33rd - 67th
percentile
Median

3
2
1

NZE
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

NZE

APS STEPS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Temperature rise in 2100 is 2.4 °C in the STEPS and 1.7 °C in the APS: it peaks at just under
1.6 °C around 2040 in the NZE Scenario and then declines to about 1.4 °C by 2100

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: Gt CO2 = gigatonnes of carbon dioxide; STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario; APS = Announced Pledges
Scenario; NZE = Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.
Source: IEA analysis based on outputs of MAGICC 7.5.3.

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In the STEPS, the global average surface temperature increases to 1.9 °C above pre-industrial
levels around 2050 and is on track for 2.4 °C in 2100 and still higher temperatures thereafter. 1
Inherent uncertainties in the earth’s response to future emissions mean that there is a
one-third probability of the temperature rise exceeding 2.6 °C in the STEPS in 2100, and aone-in-twenty chance of it exceeding 3.5 °C. In the APS, the temperature rises more slowly,
especially after 2030, and reaches around 1.7 °C in 2100. In the NZE Scenario, thetemperature rise peaks just below 1.6 °C around 2040 before falling back to around 1.4 °C in
2100. All further temperature rises carry risks: those in the STEPS would risk particularly
extreme consequences for global ecosystems and human well-being.

How big are the implementation and ambition gaps?
The Paris Agreement requires all countries to develop, submit and implement Nationally
Determined Contributions (NDCs) and to set a schedule for updating them to increase
ambition. As of September 2023, 168 NDCs had been submitted, covering 195 Parties to theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and nearly 90% had
been updated since the first NDC round.

Gt CO₂

Figure 4.2 ⊳15

Projected CO2 emissions from fuel combustion under firstand revised NDCs and by scenario in 2030
Advanced economies

10

20

5

10

First Revised
NDCs

STEPS APS NZE

EMDE

30

First Revised
NDCs

STEPS APS NZE

Additional emissions reductions achieved with support
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Achieving targets in the revised NDCs would reduce emissions by 5 Gt CO2 from the levelin the first round, nevertheless substantial implementation and ambition gaps remain
Notes: EMDE = emerging market and developing economies. Additional emissions reductions achieved withsupport refers to the difference between unconditional and conditional NDCs.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

1 Temperature rise estimates quoted in this section refer to the median temperature rise calculated using theModel for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change (MAGICC 7.5.3). All changes intemperatures are relative to 1850‐1900 and match the IPCC 6th Assessment Report definition of warming of0.85 °C between 1995‐2014 (IPCC, 2021).

Chapter 4 | Secure and people-centred energy transitions

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4

The most recent submissions have lowered projected emissions in 2030 by around 5 Gt CO2
from the NDCs first submitted in 2016, if all targets conditional on international support arereached (Figure 4.2). For advanced economies, achieving the revised NDCs would lower
emissions in 2030 by around 2.1 Gt CO2 compared with the first submissions. In emerging
market and developing economies, emissions in 2030 under the revised NDCs would bearound 2.8 Gt CO2 lower than in the first round of submissions.
In advanced economies, there is a 0.7 Gt CO2 gap between emissions projected for 2030 in
the revised NDCs and the STEPS, which indicates that countries have not yet introduced all
the specific policies needed to achieve their NDCs. In emerging market and developing
economies, the situation is reversed, with emissions in the STEPS projections 1 Gt CO2 lower
in 2030 than under their revised unconditional NDCs. This indicates that their current policies
provide scope for their NDCs to be made more ambitious.
In both advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, there is alarge implementation gap between the STEPS and the APS and a large ambition gap between
the APS and the NZE Scenario. In advanced economies, there is an implementation gap of
1.7 Gt CO2 in 2030 and an ambition gap of 1.8 Gt CO2. In emerging market and developing
economies, there is an implementation gap of 2.5 Gt CO2 in 2030 and an ambition gap ofclose to 5 Gt CO2. This suggests that more ambition on net zero emissions pledges is requiredby countries around the world, and that countries need to do much more to back up theirpledges with firm policy commitments and measures to ensure their realisation..
Figure 4.3 ⊳Reductions in energy-related CO2 emissions by regionand scenario, 2022-2030

Advanced
economies

Emerging market anddeveloping economies
Electricity
Intensive industries
Other industries
Cars
TrucksAviation and shipping
Heating and cooling
Other

-2
-4

Gt CO2

-6
-8

APS

NZE

APS

NZE

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In both scenarios, about 40% of total emissions reductions in emerging market
and developing economies come from renewables replacing coal power

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

The largest single contribution to closing the ambition and the implementation gaps in both
the APS and the NZE Scenario comes from replacing coal‐fired power generation withrenewable energy sources. In emerging market and developing economies, the switch toclean sources of electricity makes up 40% of total emissions reductions between today and2030 in both scenarios (Figure 4.3).
In the APS, most of the remaining emissions reductions compared with the STEPS come from
more rapid energy efficiency improvements and the electrification of end‐uses. Heavy
industry contributes the largest share of reductions, reflecting more stringent efficiency
standards than in the STEPS and wider deployment of large‐scale near zero emissions plants
in energy‐intensive industries.
In the NZE Scenario, there are large additional emissions reductions from cars and trucks,
particularly in advanced economies, reflecting a faster roll out of electric vehicles (EVs) andsupporting infrastructure. In hard‐to‐abate sectors, such as aviation and shipping, the risks
associated with being a first mover deter some firms from adopting innovative low‐emissions
technologies during this decade in the APS, but measures taken in the NZE Scenario counter
these risks and contribute emissions reductions of 0.5 Gt CO2 globally.

4.2.2

Methane abatement

What is the outlook for methane emissions from fossil fuels?
Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial
Revolution; rapid and sustained reductions in methane emissions are key to limiting
near-term global warming (IPCC, 2021). The energy sector accounts for nearly 40% of
methane emissions from human activity. Methane emissions from fossil fuel operations
account for the vast majority of energy sector emissions, and indeed for nearly 10% of total
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the energy sector. We estimate that the fossil fuelindustry could avoid more than 70% of its current methane emissions with existing
technology, much of it at little or no net cost.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Methane emissions from fossil fuel operations fall in all scenarios from 2023 to 2030: in the
STEPS by around 20%; in the APS by 40%; and in the NZE Scenario by 75% (Figure 4.4). Around
one-third of the reductions in the NZE Scenario are due to reduced demand for oil, gas andcoal and two-thirds are from the rapid deployment of emissions reduction measures andtechnologies. Some of the key measures include a stop to all non-emergency flaring andventing, and universal adoption of regular leak detection and repair programmes. By 2030,
all fossil fuel producers reduce their methane emission intensities to levels similar to theworld’s best operators today.
China and Russia are the two largest emitters of methane from fossil fuels. Together theyaccounted for around one-third of methane emissions from fossil fuel operations in 2022.
Neither has committed to absolute methane reductions before 2030. However, many
countries that have net zero emissions goals also are not currently doing enough to address
methane emissions.
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4

Mt

Figure 4.4 ⊳Methane emissions from fossil fuel operations
By scenario

By source in the NZE Scenario

120
90
60
30

2010

2020
STEPS

2030
APS

2040

2050
NZE

2022

2030

Coal

Oil

2050
Natural gas
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

If countries make good on their pledges, methane emissions will fall byaround 50 Mt to 2030; they fall an additional 45 Mt in the NZE Scenario
Note: Mt = million tonnes.

How can cutting methane from fossil fuels contribute to the Global Methane Pledge?
The Global Methane Pledge was launched at COP26 in November 2021 to catalyse action to
reduce methane emissions. Led by the United States and the European Union, 150 countries
are now participants and together are responsible for more than half of global methane
emissions from human activity. By joining the Pledge, countries commit to work together tocollectively reduce methane emissions by at least 30% below 2020 levels by 2030.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Achieving the 75% cut in methane emissions from fossil fuel operations in the NZE Scenario
would lower total human-caused methane emissions by more than 25% (Figure 4.5).
Generally, many of these reductions can be achieved at very low cost or while generating
overall savings. Based on average natural gas prices from 2017 to 2021, around 40% ofemissions from oil and gas operations could be avoided at no net cost because the outlays
for the abatement measures are less than the market value of the additional gas that is
captured.
Emissions could be reduced very quickly if countries and companies were to adopt a set of
tried and tested measures and policy tools related to leak detection and repair requirements,
technology standards, and a ban on non-emergency flaring and venting. In the oil and gas
sector, these measures would cut methane emissions from operations by half. If adopted
worldwide in the coal sector, around half of methane emissions could be cut by making themost of the potential to use coal mine methane in mining operations, or by making use offlaring or oxidation technologies. Advances in technology, such as improved satellite
coverage for leak monitoring, are making it easier to pinpoint sources of emissions and to
facilitate abatement in both sectors, but action so far has been slow.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Figure 4.5 ⊳Main sources of methane emissions from human activities
and abatement potential based on available technologies
Main sources

Abatement potential

Agriculture

Energy

4

Waste
50

100
Total

150
Mt

Oil

Gas

50

100
Mt

Coal
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The energy sector has more near-term potential for methane abatement than other sectors
Notes: Abatement potential for agriculture and waste is based on the Global Methane Assessment(UNEP, 2021). Emissions from biofuel and biomass burning are not shown.

What is needed to increase action on methane?
Methane abatement in the energy sector is one of the best options available to reduce GHG
emissions (Figure 4.6). Just over USD 75 billion in cumulative spending is required to 2030 to
cut methane emissions from oil and gas operations by 75% in the NZE Scenario, which is lessthan 2% of the net income received by this industry in 2022 (IEA, 2023a).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

There are a variety of reasons why methane emissions from fossil fuel operations haveremained stubbornly high in recent years, including information gaps, inadequate
infrastructure or underdeveloped local markets that make it difficult to find a productive use
for abated gas, and misaligned investment incentives that, for example, rule out any
spending that does not provide a quick payback.
There are various ways to speed up progress. There is a role for governments in
implementing and enforcing policies and regulations to incentivise or require early company
action, but oil, gas and coal companies carry primary responsibility for methane abatement
and should move quickly towards a zero tolerance approach to methane emissions without
waiting until legislation compels them to do so. Banks, investors and insurers have an
opportunity to add to the pressure for more rapid action by incorporating methane
abatement into their engagement with the hydrocarbon industries with the aim ofpromoting strict performance standards, verifiable methane reductions, and transparent andcomparable disclosures on measured emissions. There is also scope for consumers to workwith suppliers to create a market for certified low-emissions fuels and to provide economic
incentives for methane abatement.
Chapter 4 | Secure and people-centred energy transitions

163

Mt

Figure 4.6 ⊳25

Oil and gas methane emissions savings and net costs bymeasure and industry segment in the NZE Scenario, 2030
By industry segment

By abatement measure

20
15
10
5
Replace LDAR
leaky
equipment

New
processes
and equipment

VRUs

OnshoreCost of measures (USD/t CO2-eq)

No net cost

Off- Down- Unconshore stream ventional
0-10

> 10
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Nearly 95% of abatement has a net cost below USD 10 per tonne CO2-eq
Notes: USD/t CO2-eq = US dollars per tonne of carbon-dioxide equivalent; LDAR = leak detection and repair;
VRUs = vapour recovery units. One tonne of methane is considered to be equivalent to 30 tonnes of CO2 basedon the 100‐year global warming potential (IPCC, 2021).

Of the total USD 75 billion required spending on methane abatement to 2030 in the
NZE Scenario, we estimate that about USD 15-20 billion will be hard to finance throughtraditional channels (IEA, 2023a). This includes spending required in low and middle income
countries, at facilities owned and operated by national oil companies and smaller
independent companies, and for measures that generate a small return over their lifetime.
A new international effort is needed from the industry, governments and other stakeholders
to fill this financing gap.

4.2.3

Air quality

Overview and scenario outcomes
Air pollution is one of the world’s most significant environmental risks to human health, with
one-in-nine deaths linked to poor air quality. Over 90% of people are exposed to polluted
air, 2 leading to more than 6 million premature deaths a year – more than twice the numberof deaths during 2020 from Covid-19. Air pollution also compounds multiple chronic healthconditions, such as asthma, and leads to serious diseases, such as lung cancer.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Today, about 4.4 million premature deaths a year are caused by breathing polluted air fromoutdoor sources (ambient air pollution), and around 3.2 million are the result of breathing
polluted air from indoor sources (household air pollution) due mainly to the traditional use
2 Polluted air is defined here as having a PM
3
2.5 concentration higher than 5 µg/m .

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

of biomass for heating and cooking. The majority of premature deaths from ambient air
pollution and almost all of those from household air pollution are in emerging market anddeveloping economies, where air pollution also comes with a significant economic cost. It isestimated to reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) by around 6%, and the GDP of someemerging market and developing economies by more than 10% per year (World Bank, 2022).
In the STEPS, premature deaths attributable to ambient air pollution increase to 4.9 million
in 2030, while premature deaths due to household air pollution fall to around 2.5 million(Figure 4.7). These worldwide results mask strong regional differences. Around 1% of people
in advanced economies have long‐term exposure today to fine particulate matter (PM2.5)
concentrations exceeding 35 microgrammes per cubic metre (µg/m3), the least stringent
interim target of the World Health Organization (WHO, 2021), which remains largely
unchanged to 2030 in the STEPS. In contrast, 40% of people in emerging market anddeveloping economies breathe air with concentrations of PM2.5 above the least stringent
WHO target today. In the STEPS this reduces only marginally to 37% in 2030 as reductions inPM2.5 emissions are offset by increases in the urban population.
Figure 4.7 ⊳Share of people exposed to various PM2.5 concentrations anddeaths from household and ambient air pollution, 2030
Million deaths
HAP
AAP

Stated Policies Scenario
EMDE
Advanced
economies
EMDE
Advanced
economies

2.5

4.4

0.0

0.5

1.3

4.3

0.0

0.5

0.7

2.4

0.0

0.2

Announced Pledges Scenario

Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario

EMDE
Advanced
economies20%< 5 µg/m³

40%
60%
5 - 35 µg/m³

80%> 35 µg/m³

100%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

By 2030, the number of people breathing the most heavily polluted air is 80% lower
in the NZE Scenario than in the STEPS, resulting in over 3 million fewer premature deaths
Note: µg/m3 = microgrammes per cubic metre; HAP = household air pollution; AAP = ambient air pollution;
EMDE = emerging market and developing economies.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: IEA analysis based on IIASA modelling.

In the APS, reductions in the use of traditional biomass to heat buildings and cuts in pollutant
emissions in industry bring down the number of people exposed to concentrations of PM2.5
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4

above the least stringent WHO target from 2022 levels by 230 million (or 3% of the global
population) in 2030. Premature deaths from household air pollution in the APS are around
1.3 million lower than in the STEPS in 2030, and deaths associated with ambient air pollution
are about 200 000 lower than in the STEPS.
In the NZE Scenario, the next decade brings dramatic reductions in premature deaths bothfrom ambient and indoor air pollution. By 2030 there are 2.5 million fewer premature deaths
from household air pollution per year than in 2022, and around 1.7 million fewer premature
deaths from ambient air pollution. The benefits are largest in emerging market anddeveloping economies, where the share of the population exposed to PM2.5 concentrations
above the least stringent WHO target falls by four-fifths to 7% in 2030.
Rapid reductions in air pollution in the NZE Scenario are achieved with feasible energy andair quality policies and proven technologies. Access to clean cooking for all is essential toreduce the use of inefficient biomass cookstoves and associated PM2.5 emissions, and there
is a lot of experience in devising successful clean cooking programmes (section 4.4.1). Since
the majority of transport emissions take place at street level, and often within densely
populated areas, strictly enforced emissions standards in road transport are central toreduce nitrogen oxides (NOX) emissions, particularly in cities. Achieving reductions in sulphur
dioxide (SO2) emissions depends to a large extent on fuel switching in the power sector andon increasing energy efficiency in industry. The value of the resultant benefits is typicallymany times higher than the costs of bringing about cleaner air.

4.3

Secure energy transitions

4.3.1

Fuel security and trade

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

At the height of the energy crisis in 2022, record high natural gas prices were translating intoa daily flow of USD 500 million from the European Union to Russia. Over a year on from thestart of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy flows from Russia to Europe have slowed to atrickle and the contours of a new global oil and gas trade balance are coming into view. Russia
is redirecting its oil and, to a lesser extent its natural gas, to Asia and other non-European
markets. However, its role in global oil and gas trade is set to diminish as a result of thelong-term effects of sanctions, further reductions in exports to Europe, and difficulties in fully
offsetting the lost volume by redirecting exports to Asia.
Global oil and gas trade is set to become increasingly concentrated on flows between the
Middle East and Asia. In the STEPS, seaborne crude oil trade from the Middle East to Asia
rises from around 40% of total global trade today to around 50% by 2050. Asia is also thefinal destination for three-quarters of incremental Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG)
supply between 2022 and 2030 (Figure 4.8). In the APS, developing economies in Asia
continue to draw in oil and gas imports as they build their clean energy systems. The Middle
East-Asia trade route accounts for some 40% of all global oil and gas trade in 2030 and 45%
in 2050, up from 35% today. In the NZE Scenario, the share of this route increases further to
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

55% by 2050 even as the total volume of trade declines dramatically. The changing fuel tradepatterns in the APS and NZE Scenario have important implications for exporters andimporters alike and raise questions about how countries can work together to avoid supply
disruptions while achieving rapid transitions.

EJ

Figure 4.8 ⊳120

Seaborne crude oil and LNG trade by route and scenario
STEPS

APS

NZE

100%

Other routes
Americas to Europe

90

75%

Others to Asia

4

Americas to Asia
60

50%

Middle East to Asia
Share of Middle East
to Asia (right axis)

30

25%

2022

2030 2050

2030 2050

2030 2050
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Global crude oil and LNG trade flows are increasingly concentrated
on the routes between the Middle East and Asia in all scenarios
Note: EJ = exajoule.

How does oil and natural gas trade change in the APS and NZE Scenario?

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Oil and gas trade is relatively resilient in the APS and NZE Scenario to 2030: while oil andnatural gas demand fall by around 6% in the APS and 20% in the NZE Scenario by 2030, trade
expands by 2% in the APS and falls by only 12% in the NZE Scenario. In both scenarios, sharply
declining domestic demand in North America opens a large production surplus which drives
exports to 2030. Demand in emerging market and developing economies in Asia remains
relatively robust to 2030, meaning imports continue to rise, with falling domestic production
contributing to import demand in some countries. The value of trade nonetheless declines
sharply in the NZE Scenario as oil and natural gas prices drop (Figure 4.9).
There are many uncertainties about how global oil and gas trade might evolve under thepressure of climate policy. In the APS, trade flows are determined by existing contractual
commitments, the pipeline of projects under development in the near term, the ability ofmajor producers to find export outlets in a world where oil and gas trade is shrinking, andthe cost of developing new supplies in the long run. In the NZE Scenario, trade flows are
dictated more by short-run costs and the production surpluses that form as falling domestic
demand frees up additional volumes for export.
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167

Figure 4.9 ⊳Average annual value of oil and natural gas trade
Import bill

Export revenue

2016-2021
2022

2030

STEPS
APS
NZE
2000

1500

1000

500

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

Billion USD (2022, MER)
Middle East
EuropeEurasia
Japan and Korea

North America
China

AfricaIndia

C & S America
Rest of Asia Pacific
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The value of global oil and gas trade holds steady in the STEPS and to a lesser extent
in the APS; trade volumes are lower in the NZE Scenario, and less profitable too
Note: MER = market exchange rate; C & S America = Central and South America.

A number of exporters have set out why they think that they will continue to thrive evenduring rapid transitions. Some say that their low production costs will allow them toout-compete rival producers; others point to lower emissions intensities than those of rival
producers, or claim that they are a better option in terms of energy security. However, there
is no getting away from the point that any new resource developments in the NZE Scenario
would need to be matched by faster declines elsewhere to avoid oversupply or fossil fuellock-in, and that some producers could face large potential losses. The supply-side
assumptions in the NZE Scenario look to chart a middle ground between the various
trade-offs that exist, but other variants are possible.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In the APS and the NZE Scenario, the reduction in oil and gas production results in a large
drop in government revenue for producer economies that in many cases rely on income fromstate-owned oil and gas companies to fund fiscal spending. In the NZE Scenario, governments
in net exporting regions collect around USD 375 billion from the production of oil and gas in
2030, around 50% below the average take between 2017-2021. By 2050, this value falls toaround USD 90 billion (Figure 4.10). This reduction in state income underscores theimportance of developing economic diversification strategies, including by making full use of
the potential for clean energy.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Figure 4.10 ⊳ Average annual government revenue from oil and natural gas
production and consumption taxes

Billion USD (2022, MER)

Net exporting regions

Net importing regions

2 000

Production
Consumption
2050

1 500
1 000

4

500

2017-21STEPS APS NZE
2030

2017-21STEPS APS NZE
2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Reductions in government revenue from oil and gas taxes affect exporters and importers

On the other side of the ledger, governments also earn revenue from oil and gas
consumption, for example in the form of excise taxes on gasoline at the pump. Globally,
these taxes exceed upstream taxes and royalties by a factor of two, suggesting that the shift
away from oil and gas might also pose major fiscal challenges for some net importers. In the
NZE Scenario, consumption-related taxes collected by net importing regions fall by
USD 750 billion between 2022 and 2030. The reduced tax take is, however, smaller as a shareof GDP in net importing regions than in producer economies heavily reliant on income fromhydrocarbon production and export. Moreover, the drop in oil and gas import bills in the APS
and NZE Scenario improves the overall trade balance for importing countries. In India, forexample, the oil import bill falls by USD 60 billion (40%) in the NZE Scenario in 2030 comparedwith 2022. Fiscal balances can also be shored up by increasing tax revenue in other parts ofthe energy sector, or by using levies collected from CO2 prices in place of the revenues
derived from the taxation of oil and gas consumption.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

How can countries and companies work together to navigate secure transitions?
Fragmented approaches by oil and gas producers and consumers could heighten energy
security risks and geopolitical tensions during net zero transitions. Any mismatch in the paceof demand and supply reductions could cause very high or low prices, leading to turbulent
and volatile markets. Uncoordinated policy implementation could lead to overinvestment in
new oil and gas capacity or the premature retirement of existing infrastructure, and eitherof these could undermine efforts to bring about secure energy transitions. A lack of
co-operation could also hamper the development and smooth functioning of the complex
values chains that are needed for large-scale trade in low-emissions fuels.
Chapter 4 | Secure and people-centred energy transitions

169

Avoiding these pitfalls will require countries and companies to work together. There areseveral ways for them to do this. Clear long-term plans on the part of major consuming
countries and sectors would help producers to make informed infrastructure and capital
investment decisions. If these consumers signal that they intend to place economic value on
products with lower emissions, producers will be incentivised to make capital investments
to lower the emissions intensity of their resources. Consumers and producers could in
addition explore joint investments to link clean energy supply with demand. Many producer
economies hold abundant renewable resources, as well as subsurface data and expertise forpotential CO2 storage: there is scope for countries to work together to boost investment inrenewables and to support technology demonstration and joint R&D projects to unlock CO2
storage potential. Regular bilateral and multilateral dialogues could further improve mutual
understanding of policy goals, help avoid potential disruptions and reduce the risks of
stranded capital.
The challenges of scaling up low-emissions fuels offer a clear example of the need forenhanced co-operation across borders. Hydrogen trade is expected to involve almost all
regions (Figure 4.11). Long-term contracts, mutually agreed standards and certification
schemes are crucial to underpin the capital-intensive projects that will be needed.
Governments around the world have an important part to play in facilitating co‐ordinatedand timely investments, and this means in particular setting clear policy frameworks that arecompatible across borders.
Figure 4.11 ⊳ Low-emissions hydrogen demand and production
in selected regions in the APS, 2050

United States
China
Middle East
LAC
European Union
Australia
North Africa
Canada
Korea
Japan
-100

-50
Net imports

050

Domestic supply

100

150

Net exports

200
bcme
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Close producer-consumer co-operation is key
to developing a new hydrogen industry
Notes: bcme = billion cubic metres of natural gas equivalent (equivalent to 36 petajoules). Includes trade ofhydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels. Final use may not be in the form of gaseous hydrogen. LAC = Latin
America and the Caribbean.

170International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

4.3.2

Electricity security

Electricity is central to modern economies, accounting for around 20% of total final energy
consumption today. This increases in all scenarios, reaching 30% in the STEPS in 2050, 40%
in the APS and more than 50% in the NZE Scenario. Due to the higher efficiency of manyelectrical processes, its share of useful energy provided is even larger, rising from 27% today
to about 45% in the STEPS in 2050, 50% in the APS and 65% in the NZE Scenario (Figure 4.12).
Figure 4.12 ⊳ Share of electricity in useful energy demand by sector
and scenario

70%

STEPS

APS

NZE

2030 2050

2030 2050

2030 2050

60%
50%
40%

Agriculture
Transport
Services
Residential
Industry

30%
20%
10%
2022

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The share of electricity in useful energy demand increases
significantly in all scenarios, most of all in the NZE Scenario

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Electricity security means having a reliable and stable supply of electricity that can meetdemand at all times at an affordable price. Electricity supply has always needed to meetdemand continuously, down to the scale of seconds or less, to maintain system stability.
However, power systems are becoming more complex, and power system flexibility needs
are set to increase sharply in the future as a result of the rising share of variable wind andsolar photovoltaics (PV) and rising electricity demand.
In the light of these changes, maintaining electricity security in future power systems calls
for new tools and approaches. Power generators will need to be more agile, consumers willneed to be more connected and responsive, and grid infrastructure will need to bestrengthened and digitalised to support more dynamic flows of electricity and information.
Sufficient flexible capacity will have to be available to deal with variability across alltimescales, from the very short term to the very long term, across seasons and years. Powersystems will also need to adapt to both changing climate and weather patterns as well aschanging consumer behaviour (Box 4.1).
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How are increasing power system flexibility needs met in the future?
Most of the flexibility required across all timescales today is provided by dispatchable
thermal power plants and hydropower (including pumped storage). 3 In our three scenarios,
much of the additional short-term flexibility that is needed is provided by batteries anddemand response, especially after 2030. Thermal power plants and hydropower continue toprovide most seasonal flexibility, with demand response and curtailment of surplus
generation playing an increasingly important role towards the end of the outlook period.

Flexibility needs (2022 = 1)

Figure 4.13 ⊳ Global power system flexibility needs and supply in the APS
Short term

5

Seasonal

Flexibility needs driver
DemandWind
Solar PV43

Flexibility supply
Curtailment
ThermalHydro
Batteries
Demand response

2
1

2022

2030

2050

2022

2030

2050
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Short-term needs increase significantly, mainly due to solar PV, with batteries and demand
response emerging as crucial suppliers of flexibility; seasonal needs rise less sharply
Notes: Flexibility needs are computed for 2030 and 2050 taking into account changes in electricity supply anddemand and weather variability over 30 historical years. Demand response includes the flexible operation ofelectrolysers.

In the STEPS, short-term power system flexibility needs more than triple globally by 2050
relative to today. In the APS, they double by 2030 and rise 4.5-fold by 2050 (Figure 4.13).
Global needs for seasonal flexibility increase less sharply: they rise by nearly 20% to 2030 and
45% to 2050 in the APS. The fast-rising share of solar PV emerges as the key factor increasing
short-term flexibility needs: wind is less variable in the short term but can vary significantly
across weeks or seasons, and it becomes an important driver of seasonal flexibility needs as
its share increases in power systems across the world. Patterns of wind and solar output canbe complementary to variations in electricity demand, but their rising share tends to increase
overall system flexibility needs.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

3 Flexibility is defined as the ability of a power system to reliably and cost effectively manage the variability ofdemand and supply. It ranges from ensuring the instantaneous stability of the power system to supporting
long-term security of supply.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Rising flexibility needs and changes in the global power plant fleet – with the phase-out of
unabated coal in many regions – see the share of short-term flexibility provided by thermal
power plants drop from around 60% today to one-third by 2030 in the APS. Thermal power
plants, including unabated fossil fuel plants and low-emissions technologies (such as nuclear,fossil fuels with carbon capture, utilisation and storage, bioenergy, hydrogen and ammonia),
remain important providers of seasonal flexibility through to 2040. It is only by 2050 that
their share in the flexibility mix drops to about 10%. The share of hydropower in the supply
of short-term flexibility falls as needs increase rapidly, but it remains an important source of
seasonal flexibility and is the main source of the seasonal balancing required after 2040.
Market designs and regulations need to ensure that the dispatch of pumped storage,
reservoir hydropower and other forms of long-term energy storage is aligned with thelong-term flexibility needs of the system.
Demand response is set to play an increasingly important part in the provision of short-term
flexibility as the contribution made by thermal power plants wanes. Expanding use of electricheat pumps, air conditioners and EVs makes demand more variable, but it also creates
additional opportunities for demand-side response. Making the most of these opportunities
depends on the creation of a supportive regulatory environment which is underpinned byadequate price signals, digital tools and smart controls. Effective demand-response policies
and instruments can also help consumers reduce their electricity bills (Box 4.3). In the APS,
demand response meets around one-third of short-term flexibility needs by 2030.
Figure 4.14 ⊳ Hourly electricity generation by source for a sample day in India
GW

in August in the APS, 2022 and 2050

2022

250
200

1 200

150

900

100

600

50

300

0h

2050

1 500

24h

Solar PVWind
Battery storage
Hydro
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
Other
DemandDemand with DR
Demand with DR, BC
0h

24h
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Electricity systems need to become more flexible to cope with large increases inelectricity consumption and a rising share of electricity from variable renewables
Notes: GW = gigawatt; DR = demand response; BC = battery charging. Demand response includes the flexible
operation of electrolysers.

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Batteries are emerging as a crucial means of providing short-term flexibility alongside
demand-response measures. Utility-scale battery storage capacity increases nearly 85-foldin the STEPS, rising to more than 2 terawatts (TW) by 2050. In the APS it increases to justover 3 TW by 2050 and provides roughly one-third of the short-term flexibility needed in
2050. Batteries are a good match for the daily cycle of solar PV-based electricity generationin particular. On a typical day in India in 2050, for example, batteries could charge using
excess solar generation during the daytime and discharge at night, reducing curtailment andthe need to cycle thermal power plants over the course of a day (Figure 4.14).
There are also other options for the provision of both short-term and seasonal flexibility.
Low-emissions hydrogen and ammonia can be used in thermal power plants to provide
backup capacity, acting in effect as seasonal storage of renewable electricity. Grid-connected
electrolysers can offer significant amounts of both short-term and seasonal flexible capacity:
electrolysers provide roughly a quarter of the seasonal flexibility needed in 2050 in the APS.
In systems with high shares of variable renewables, it may also be economical to curtail someof the surplus wind or solar PV generation to provide additional flexibility if other sources offlexibility are unavailable or more costly to dispatch.
Figure 4.15 ⊳ Electricity peak demand in selected regions and countries andIndex (2022 = 1)

contributions by sector, 2022-2050

5European
Union

Japan

UnitedStates

China

India

Southeast
Asia
Transport

4

Buildings
CoolingHeatingOther

3
2

Industry
Averagedemand
2022
STEPS
APS

2022
STEPS
APS

2022
STEPS
APS

2022
STEPS
APS

2022
STEPS
APS

2022
STEPS
APS

1

2050

2050

2050

2050

2050

2050
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Peak electricity demand increases in all regions;
it rises faster than average demand in most regions

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: Peak demand here is the average of demand for the 500 highest load hours of the year, before
activation of demand response. Heating includes water heating.

Changing patterns of consumption as electricity use increases have a significant impact onpeak electricity demand over the year (Figure 4.15). In the STEPS, peak demand increases by
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

37% in the United States and 65% in the European Union to 2050. The increase is more
pronounced in countries with significant space cooling needs as more people start to use air
conditioners. In India, for example, there is a fourfold increase in peak electricity demand by
2050 as a result of expanding electrification, increased use of air conditioners and EV
charging.
Energy efficiency has a vital part to play in mitigating the increase in peak demand andreducing stress on electricity networks. The contribution of air conditioning to peak demand,for example, is cut by half in India and by two-thirds in the United States in the APS comparedwith the STEPS in 2050 by more stringent minimum energy performance standards and more
efficient building designs. Since a large share of the increase in peak demand is driven by
end-uses with significant flexibility potential, such as EVs, air conditioners and heat pumps,
increases in uncontrolled peak demand can be also mitigated by demand-side response
measures.
Box 4.1 ⊳Impacts of weather on power systems: Case study of Europe

Figure 4.16 ⊳ Variability of flexibility needs and generation for different
Difference to average weather year

weather years in Europe in the APS, 2030

30%

Flexibility needs

10%

Flexibility needs drivers
Solar PV
generation

40%

15%

5%

20%

0%

0%

0%

-15%

-30%

Electricity generation

DemandShort-term-5%
Seasonal

-10%

Hydro

-20%
Wind
generation-40%

Natural gas
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Seasonal flexibility needs can vary significantly, leading to large differences in
the load factor of the dispatchable power plant fleet from one year to the next

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: A weather year is a set of weather parameters such as temperature, solar radiation, wind speed
and precipitation compiled from historical records to create curves of hourly loads and renewables
output.

To examine how seasonal flexibility needs could vary across years, we analysed how thepower system in Europe would need to evolve in the APS to 2030 and 2050 to be able tohandle 30 different possible weather years (Figure 4.16). As the share of wind and solar
PV in power generation increases at the expense of fossil fuels the frequency andChapter 4 | Secure and people-centred energy transitions

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4

duration of low wind periods coinciding with cloudy skies and low temperatures is asignificant contributor to seasonal flexibility needs. This has a substantial impact on theoperation of the dispatchable power fleet, notably natural gas-fired plants andhydropower, which must absorb most of the variation between seasons and years.
In 2030, the most extreme conditions in a weather year could induce a 40% upward or
downward variation in the annual use of gas-fired power plants in Europe compared withan average weather year. The resultant uncertainty about revenues for these plants andabout their profitability could act as a drag on investment in them, despite their essential
role as providers of system adequacy and flexibility. Adapting market designs andestablishing instruments to ensure sufficient investment is essential for security ofsupply.
Short-term flexibility needs more than quadruple by 2050 in the APS compared with thecurrent level, mainly because of the integration of variable renewables. For 2030,
differences between weather years have less impact on the magnitude of theserequirements: they vary by around 5% upwards or downwards compared with an average
weather year.

Will grids be ready in time to enable power sector transitions?
There are approximately 80 million kilometres (km) of electricity networks worldwide today.
Significant grid enhancements are needed in all scenarios to meet the increasing pace ofelectrification and accelerated deployment of renewable energy sources. 4 New transmission
lines are necessary to connect large-scale wind and solar PV projects to demand centres,
sometimes over long distances, and offshore substations and cabling are needed to connect
the new and planned offshore wind farms to the mainland. Distribution lines also need to be
expanded to accommodate increasing electricity demand and the rapid growth of distributed
solar PV capacity. Further links within and between countries and regions are needed toreduce the requirement for flexibility from alternative sources and to facilitate theintegration of further potential flexibility providers. Total grid line lengths increase by about
18% from 2022 to 2030 in the STEPS and APS, and by 20% in the NZE Scenario.
In addition to the extension of power lines, investment in digitalisation, smart systems andadvanced high power semiconductor technologies is needed to improve the control andstability of electricity flows. Smart grids and grid components such as flexible alternating
current (AC) transmission systems make it easier to accommodate the increasing share ofvariable generation from solar PV and wind. They also present an opportunity to improvegrid management and to make new investment in grids more targeted and efficient.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

This means that a major increase in investment is required to ensure grid reliability, support
clean energy transitions and achieve universal electricity access (Box 4.2). Some new
4 See Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions (IEA, 2023b) for a comprehensive analysis on the role ofgrids.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

investment is already planned: the pipeline of announced high voltage direct current (HVDC)
projects is set to lead to an increase in the length of HVDC lines by around 45% to 2030.
Obtaining the necessary new investment and building the new grid infrastructure requiredin the APS and the NZE Scenario is challenging but feasible. However, early action and holisticplanning are needed to avoid delays in connecting sources of renewable energy, given thatgrid projects can take more than a decade and typically have much longer timelines thanrenewable energy projects, and measures to expedite permitting processes for new grid
infrastructure would help a great deal.
Box 4.2 ⊳Scaling up investment in electricity networks

There is a gap between current grid spending trends and the investment required toreach climate goals, especially in emerging market and developing economies. Annual
investment in grids worldwide is set to reach USD 330 billion in 2023. This climbs to
USD 565 billion by 2030 in the STEPS, but it needs to rise further to around
USD 620 billion in the APS and USD 680 billion in the NZE Scenario. Based on recent
trends, spending in 2030 in emerging market and developing economies would be lessthan half the investment needs of the APS (USD 335 billion), while the gap in advanced
economies is far smaller (Figure 4.17).

Billion USD (2022, MER)

Figure 4.17 ⊳ Investment trends in grids versus needs in the APS
Advanced economies

400

Emerging market and developing economies

300
200
100

2019

2023e

2030 2019
APS
2019-23e CAAGR

2023e

2030
APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Recent trends in grid investment leave a large gap with the required levels by 2030,
especially in emerging market and developing economies

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: MER = market exchange rate; CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate; 2023e = estimatedvalues for 2023.

Many advanced economies, including Italy, Spain, United Kingdom and United States, aresuffering from grid connection queues for wind and solar projects. Permitting rules,
planning and remuneration for investments are the key issues requiring policy attention.
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However, the biggest challenges are in emerging market and developing economies,
where responsibility for investment often lies with cash-constrained and heavily
indebted public utilities. For example, the South Africa utility, Eskom, has around
USD 20 billion of guaranteed debt at risk of default, raising South Africa’s risk premiumand borrowing costs.
Concessional funding from international development finance institutions (DFIs) offers
one way out of this impasse. This needs to be accompanied by reforms that aim to create
healthier utilities and business models. It is not easy to bring about such reforms: many
developing country utilities have a majority of low income customers which cannot afford
higher electricity prices, and innovative approaches will be needed. In the case of Eskom,
the National Treasury in South Africa has developed a debt-relief arrangement of around
USD 15 billion as an interest-free sub-ordinated loan, which will improve the debt-equity
ratio and balance sheet.
Despite a heavy reliance on public funding when developing concessional finance andreform packages, there is scope for DFIs and governments to develop business models
that allow the private sector to participate in grid development and strengthening. For
example, independent power transmission (IPT) projects are designed to offer rights overa specific transmission line through a tendering process. Governments and state-owned
enterprises can be involved in the ownership and operational risk of the project,depending on the type of IPT contract. This model has recently been introduced in Africa,and similar arrangements have previously been implemented successfully in Brazil andColombia.

4.3.3

Clean energy supply chains and critical minerals

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The development of clean energy technology supply chains has made impressive progresssince 2015, boosted recently by stimulus spending related to the Covid-19 pandemic, theresponse from governments to the global energy crisis, and growing commercial andgeopolitical competition. Progress has been particularly fast in the manufacturing segment,
notably for solar panels and batteries, where new facilities are benefiting fromstandardisation and short lead times. The pipeline of announced manufacturing projects is
expanding rapidly. If all announced solar PV module manufacturing projects come to fruition,
their combined output globally, together with that from the increased utilisation of existing
capacity, would exceed the deployment needs of the NZE Scenario in 2030; EV and grid
storage battery needs for 2030 would almost be met on the same basis (Figure 4.18).
The expected pace of growth in critical mineral supplies does not match that of clean energy
technology manufacturing capacity additions, although an increasing number of new
projects have recently been announced. The overall pace of transition is usually determinedby the slowest-moving component, and that makes it important to strengthen efforts to scale
up investment in critical mineral supplies.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Figure 4.18 ⊳ Announced project throughput, and deployment and supply

needs for key clean energy technologies and minerals in 2030

150%

Production
2022
NZE 2030 deployment

100%With increased
utilisation

Announced
projects
50%

APS 2030
deployment

Solar PV

Batteries

CopperLithium

NickelIEA. CC BY 4.0.

Progress on the development of clean energy supply chains has been unevenNotes: Announced pipeline includes both committed and preliminary projects. For critical minerals, the
NZE Scenario deployment needs refer to the primary supply requirements (total demand less secondary
supply).

A high degree of supply chain concentration remains a major concern for both clean energy
technology manufacturing and critical minerals as it can make the entire supply chain
vulnerable to individual country policy choices, company decisions, natural disasters or
technical failures.

How can we accelerate the diversification of clean energy manufacturing?

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Clean energy technology supply chains today are more geographically concentrated thanfossil fuel supply chains. China has an outsized presence in most of them, and they are
generally dominated by a small number of countries. For key clean energy technologies suchas solar PV, batteries and electrolysers, for example, the largest three regions account for
80-90% of global capacity, with the largest single producer accounting for up to 80%(IEA, 2023c).
Many countries are competing to secure their place in the new global energy economy. The
pipeline of announced projects for clean energy technology manufacturing shows somepositive signs in terms of diversification, but the situation varies by technology (Figure 4.19).
In the case of batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps, many projects are now being
developed, notably in the United States and Europe, which – if they all come to fruition –would lead to a moderate decrease in China’s share of the market. However, China is set tomaintain a dominant position for solar PV and wind this decade.

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4

Figure 4.19 ⊳ Share of top three manufacturing regions for key clean energy
technologies in 2023 and 2030 based on announced projects

100%

Solar PVWind

Batteries

Electrolysers Heat pumps

Rest of world
United States
European Union
India
Viet Nam
China

75%
50%

2030

Current

2030

Current

2030

Current

2030

Current

2030

Current

25%

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Announced projects – if all realised – will alter the global distributionof manufacturing capacity for batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps
Notes: Wind = onshore nacelles. Electrolysers only includes projects with available location data. Figure for2023 refers to installed capacity as of Q1 2023; figure for 2030 refers to production in 2030 from all existingand projects announced to date.

To accelerate progress on diversifying supply chains, countries need both to develop
dedicated industrial strategies and to strengthen international co-operation. It is clearly
crucial in this context to identify and monitor the major clean energy technology supply chain
risks that could delay or disrupt deployment, given that supply chains are only as strong as
their weakest link. Building strategic partnerships is also crucial. It is not realistic or efficientfor most countries to seek to compete in all parts of all supply chains. Identifying relative
strengths and seeking complementary partnerships should be at the heart of thedevelopment of industrial strategies for clean technology manufacturing. More attention
also needs to be paid to opportunities to support in-country energy transitions andsocioeconomic development in emerging market and developing economies.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Are we on track to ensure diversified and resilient critical mineral supplies?
Critical minerals, which are essential for a range of clean energy technologies, have risen up
the policy agenda in recent years in the wake of increasing demand, volatile pricemovements, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical concerns. Demand for criticalminerals for clean energy technologies is set to increase rapidly in all of the scenarios. In the
APS, demand almost triples by 2030. In the NZE Scenario, a faster deployment of clean energy
technologies implies an almost fourfold increase in demand for critical minerals in 2030,
compared with today. EVs and battery storage are the main drivers of demand growth, butthere are also major contributions from low-emissions power generation and electricity
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

networks. As demand for clean energy applications expands faster than other uses, the shareof clean energy in total demand for key minerals rises considerably: in the APS, it reaches
over 80% for lithium, nearly 60% for cobalt and around 40% for nickel and copper in 2030.
Meeting these demands requires a significant ramp-up in mining and refining activities,
especially in geographically diversified regions. Inadequate mineral supplies could makeenergy transitions slower or more expensive, and the reversal in 2021 and 2022 of adecade-long reduction in clean energy technology costs served as a reminder that steadyincreases in supply and decreases in price cannot be taken for granted. Concerns about
security of supply have already prompted many countries to introduce a range of policies
designed to secure or promote mineral supplies. Many downstream companies such as EV
manufacturers and battery cell makers are also becoming involved in the critical mineralvalue chain through strategic investments in mining and refining operations. Long-term
off-take agreements have become the norm, and there has been a notable increase in direct
investment activities since 2021 (Table 4.1).
Table 4.1 ⊳EV makers

Involvement of top-seven EV and battery makers in thecritical minerals supply chain

Long-term
off-take

●
Tesla
●●
Volkswagen●●
General●●MotorsStellantis●●
Hyundai
●●
BMW
●●
BYD

MiningRefining

●●
●●
●●
●●
●●

●●
●●
●●
●●
●●

● Before 2021

BatterymakersLong-term
off-take

MiningRefining●● ●●LG Energy●● ●● ●●
Solution
BYD●● ●●Panasonic●●
SK On●● ●● ●●
Samsung SDI
●●
CATL

CALB

● Since 2021

Note: CATL = Contemporary Amperex Technology Company Limited.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: IEA analysis based on company announcements and news articles.

There are some positive signs in terms of new supply. Investment in critical minerals
development rose by 30% in 2022, and this followed a 20% increase in 2021. Exploration
spending also rose by 20% in 2022, driven by record growth in lithium exploration, especiallyin Canada and Australia. Critical minerals start-ups raised a record USD 1.6 billion in 2022, a
160% increase from 2021, despite headwinds in the wider venture capital sector (IEA, 2023c).
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These increases in capital spending indicate that supply is catching up with national clean
energy ambitions as reflected in the APS. Meeting the requirements in the NZE Scenario
depends however on further projects coming through. Moreover, the adequacy of planned
future supply is far from assured. Delays and cost overruns have occurred regularly in thepast. The supply of battery-grade and high-quality products may still be constrained evenwhen an overall balance of supply and demand is achieved. And new mining plays often comewith higher production costs, which could push up marginal costs and prices.
While some progress has been made in increasing supplies, limited progress has been madein diversifying supply sources; the situation has even worsened in some cases. The share of
the top-three producers in 2022 is either unchanged or has increased from 2019 levels,
especially for nickel and cobalt. Our analysis of project pipelines indicates that concentrationlevels in 2030 are set to remain high, especially for refining operations, which is where thecurrent geographical concentration is strongest. Many planned projects are being developedin the current dominant regions, with China holding half of planned lithium chemical plants
and Indonesia representing nearly 90% of planned nickel refining facilities (Figure 4.20). This
heightens consumer exposure to various geopolitical events as highlighted by the export
curbs on gallium and germanium from China in August 2023. From Africa to Latin America
and the Caribbean, many resource-holding nations are seeking positions further up the value
chain while many consuming countries want to diversify their source of refined metal
supplies. However, the world has not yet successfully connected the dots to build diversified
midstream supply chains.
Figure 4.20 ⊳ Geographic concentration of refined key mineral supply
in 2022 and in 2030 based on announced projects

100%

Lithium chemical

Refined nickel

Refined cobalt

Rest of world
CanadaFinland
RussiaArgentina
Chile
China
Indonesia

80%
60%
40%
20%

2022

2030

2022

2030

2022

2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Project pipelines indicate that, in most cases, the geographicalconcentration of mineral refining operations is likely to remain high to 2030

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: Figure for 2030 refers to production in 2030 from all existing and projects announced to date.
Sources: IEA analysis based on S&P Global (2023); Wood Mackenzie (2023); Benchmark MineralIntelligence (2023).

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Market balances do not just depend on supply. There is significant scope for actions on the
demand side to ease potential strains, via recycling, technology development, smaller EVs
and so on. For example, the average battery size for passenger electric cars has been on arising trend in nearly every major market as the desire for larger vehicles as in conventional
car markets is replicated in the EV market. If this trend persists, it would push up material
demand for batteries by 15% in 2030 in the NZE Scenario. On the other hand, the faster
adoption of technologies such as sodium-ion batteries or lithium-ion phosphate chemistries
could reduce material demand by 7% in 2030.
Progress towards improving sustainable and responsible practices has been mixed. Ourassessment of the environmental and social performance of major companies shows thatcompanies are making headway on social indicators such as community investment, worker
safety and gender balance. However, environmental indicators such as GHG emissions, waste
and water use are not improving at the same rate, and there are few signs that end-users areprioritising cleaner production pathways in their sourcing and investment decisions,although some downstream companies have started to give preference to minerals withlower climate impact.
Every country’s strategy on critical minerals will inevitably reflect its specific circumstances,
but key components are likely to include investment, innovation, recycling and rigorous
sustainability standards. More co-operative approaches between producers and consumers
could help to build more diverse supply chains and ensure fair access to raw materials. Moresupport for further technological innovation and recycling, which has already shown its
ability to relieve some of the pressure on primary supplies, could bring further
improvements.

4.4

People-centred transitions

4.4.1

Energy access

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The number of people without access to electricity worldwide has decreased by more than
45% since 2010, primarily driven by progress in developing Asia, but 760 million people stilllack access today (Figure 4.21). The situation is most pressing in countries in sub-SaharanAfrica, where around 80% of people without access to electricity live. While there have beensome recent improvements in access in sub-Saharan Africa, these have not kept pace withpopulation growth, with the result that there has been a 2.5% increase in the number ofpeople without access since 2010. In the STEPS, current policies reduce the global number ofpeople without access to electricity by around 125 million in 2030, although population
growth means there are still around 650 million people without access in 2030. In the APS,
the number of people without access to electricity falls to 270 million by 2030, and thenumber of people without access in countries in sub-Saharan Africa is cut by two-thirds.
In the NZE Scenario, universal access to electricity is achieved by 2030.

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Figure 4.21 ⊳ Population without access to modern energy in the STEPSElectricity

Million people

Clean cooking

3 000

Rest of world
Developing Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa

2 000

1 000

2010

2022

2030

2010

2022

2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Number of people without access to clean cooking declines by just over 15%
to 2030 in the STEPS and progress on access to electricity is also slow
Note: Sub-Saharan Africa excludes South Africa.

Almost 2.3 billion people today use traditional biomass, coal or kerosene for their cooking
needs; most of these are in countries in sub-Saharan Africa and developing Asia. In the STEPS,
the number of people without access to clean cooking facilities falls by just over 15% to 2030.
If all national clean cooking targets were achieved by 2030, as assumed in the APS, thenumber of people without access would fall by two-thirds, but around 735 million people
would remain without access. In the NZE Scenario, universal access to clean cooking isachieved by 2030, as it is for access to electricity.

Are off-grid solutions the key driver behind recent progress in access to electricity?
Over the years, solar home systems (SHS) have demonstrated their viability as a reliable
electricity source for households, particularly in rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa that do nothave access to reliable grid connections. Since 2015, annual sales of SHS with capacities
above 11 Watt-peak (Wp) have increased more than sevenfold in the sub-Saharan region(Figure 4.22). Such systems can provide sufficient electricity for a bundle of basic energy
services, including lighting, phone charging and a radio, though only systems above 50 Wp
are considered as providing essential access. 5

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Today, more than 45 million people use SHS above 11 Wp in sub-Saharan Africa, accounting
for just under 10% of the population with access to electricity. In 2022, SHS contributed tomore than half of the increase in access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa (IEA, 2023d).
5 An essential bundle includes four light bulbs for four hours per day, a fan for three hours per day, and a
television for two hours per day, which equates to roughly 500 kilowatt-hours per household per year.

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Off-grid connections play a central role in bringing about universal access by the end of thisdecade in the NZE Scenario. Over time households in all but the most remote settlements
will gradually transition from off-grid to grid connections by 2050.
Figure 4.22 ⊳ Sales of off-grid solar systems in sub-Saharan Africa since 2015
Million units

and share of population with and without access in 2022

6

Population with andwithout accessSolar home system sales
Large
Small

5

Mini-grid
2%

4
3

Grid
42%

2
1

Solar homesystem4%
Population
without
access52%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Annual sales of solar home systems have increased more than sevenfold since 2015,
providing more than 45 million people with access to electricity
Notes: Small solar home systems are equipped with a solar panel rated from 11 to 49 Watt-peak (Wp). Largesolar home systems are equipped with a solar panel rated above 50 Wp. Sub-Saharan Africa excludes
South Africa.
Source: IEA analysis based on sales databases of the Global Off-Grid Lighting Association (GOGLA, 2023).

Despite recent rising equipment costs for solar home systems, sales remained relatively
stable throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, and they are still typically more affordable thangrid connections in many sub-Saharan countries. In 2022, sales of SHS surged by around 50%
in sub-Saharan Africa and were double the level achieved in 2018. Pay-as-you-go systems
that remove the upfront cost barrier play an essential role where affordability is the mainconcern and access to loans remains low. These systems currently account for nearly 95% ofsales of SHS in the region among key distributers. However, pay-as-you-go systems rely on
mobile phone services, posing significant challenges in regions with weak network coverage
and reliability.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

How can universal access to clean cooking be achieved by 2030?
The number of people without access to clean cooking globally has fallen by around
650 million people since 2010, but the Covid-19 pandemic and the energy crisis havecaused slow-downs and setbacks. In sub-Saharan Africa countries, the population without
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access has risen continuously, despite efforts by countries such as Kenya and Nigeria.
Achieving universal access to clean cooking, as in the NZE Scenario, requires actions to betaken that enable nearly 2.4 billion additional people to use modern cooking fuels by the endof this decade.
Developments in Asia demonstrate that progress can be achieved quickly. In India, forexample, more than 450 million people gained access over just ten years as a result ofliquefied petroleum gas (LPG) focussed policies. However, limitations in terms of import,
storage and transport infrastructure for LPG and lower population densities in sub-SaharanAfrica in the near term imply that improved biomass cookstoves need to play a much larger
transitional role before rural households move to modern cooking fuels (IEA, 2023e).
Figure 4.23 ⊳ Impacts of achieving universal access to clean cooking
Billion people

in emerging market and developing economies, 2022-2030

8

Population with access

Impacts of reaching universal accessTime collecting
fuelwoodx 1.7

6Premature deaths

4

GHG emissions

2

Modern energy
demandAnnualinvestment
2022

2030

-75%

-50%

-25%

0%

25%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Boosting access to clean cooking provides multiple benefits ranging from
improved health and productivity to reduced GHG emissions

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: Impacts on annual investment, energy demand and GHG emissions refer to the buildings sector.

Universal access to clean cooking could be achieved with annual investment of around
USD 8 billion between today and 2030 along with a set of initiatives to incentivise theadoption of clean fuels and stoves. This would yield immense benefits in terms of improved
health, improved gender equity and increased productivity (Figure 4.23). For example, thenumber of premature deaths due to indoor air pollution would be cut by over 70%, and GHG
emissions associated with cooking would be cut by half, as people would no longer rely on
the extremely inefficient use of traditional biomass. A further benefit would be to free up
the substantial amount of time currently spent on collecting wood for use as fuel each day,a burden mainly carried by women.

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4.4.2

Energy affordability

Today, households in advanced economies on average consume nearly three-times more
modern energy than households in emerging market and developing economies. 6 This
reflects major income-driven differences in appliance ownership, size of living space andlevels of comfort. For example, heating and cooling needs are largely met in advanced
economies, whereas the majority of people with space cooling needs in emerging market
and developing economies cannot afford adequate means to cool their residences(IEA, 2022). Transport fuel use is even more unequal, as car ownership per capita is five-times
lower in emerging market and developing economies than in advanced economies. These
differences in energy consumption decrease in all of our scenarios as households in emerging
market and developing economies become wealthier and consume more energy services.
In advanced economies, household energy bills fall by nearly 20% in the STEPS to 2030 as aresult of energy efficiency gains and lower wholesale energy prices. In the NZE Scenario, bills
fall by close to 40% to 2030 mainly thanks to higher energy efficiency gains from homeretrofits, heat pumps, more efficient appliances and faster uptake of EVs. While these all
require additional upfront capital costs, on average they generate larger savings over their
lifetimes (Figure 4.24).
Figure 4.24 ⊳ Cumulative energy expenditure and energy price reform

USD (2022, MER)

effects per household in the NZE Scenario relative to the STEPS,
2023-2030

2 000

Household expenditure

Energy price reform effects
2 500

1 000

2 000

0

1 500

-1 000

1 000-2 000500-3 000

Advanced
Economies

EMDE

Households
Investment
Energy bill
Net expenditure
Governments
Removed subsidies
Carbon pricing
revenues

Advanced
Economies

EMDE
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Expenditure is lower in the NZE Scenario in advanced economies; it is higher inemerging market and developing economies, mainly because of subsidy reform

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: MER = market exchange rate; EMDE = emerging market and developing economies. Energy bills perhousehold include expenditure for energy use in the residence and for transport fuels. Investment perhousehold includes spending on measures such as energy efficiency retrofits, heat pumps, EVs and other clean
energy technology investments.
6 Modern energy excludes the traditional use of biomass.

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In emerging market and developing economies, energy bills are higher in the NZE Scenario
than in the STEPS by 2030, partly because of higher energy service demands and partly
because of expansion and strengthening of carbon pricing schemes and the phasing out of
inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. These policy changes need to be carefully designed to limit
impacts on household budgets and to sustain support for the clean energy transition(Box 4.3). Some of the revenues from carbon pricing, for example, could be used to help
lower income consumers meet the upfront capital costs of clean energy appliances. Phasingout inefficient fossil fuel subsidies lowers the burden on government budgets: some of thesavings could be used to provide more effective and better targeted support for the energy
costs of low income households through direct payment schemes or other means.
Box 4.3 ⊳Demand-side response as a tool to cut energy bills

Recent pilot programmes in the United Kingdom and Australia demonstrate thatdemand-response policies and instruments can help consumers significantly reduce theirelectricity bills. Responsive technologies and electricity tariffs allow consumers to
respond to market signals by increasing electricity consumption when prices are low andreducing it during peak hours, for example by charging an EV overnight when electricity
demand and prices are lower. Demand-side response can also help limit curtailment ofsolar PV and wind at times of higher generation.
Figure 4.25 ⊳ Electricity bill savings from demand response for households
and by end-use in the NZE Scenario, 2030 and 2050

20%Electricity bill savings

100%

15%

75%

10%

50%

5%

25%

2030 2050
2030 2050
Advanced economies EMDE

Savings by end-use
EV charging
Space heating
Water heating
Cooling
Appliances

2030 2050
2030 2050
Advanced economies EMDEIEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Demand-side response measures can help consumers cut energy bills by up tonearly 20% by 2050 in particular by shifting EV charging and water heating patterns
Notes: EMDE = emerging market and developing economies. Demand response refers to the ability of aconsumer to shift consumption in time with no or limited impact on comfort. Estimates of the potentialof demand-response measures account for technology and acceptability limitations.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

In the NZE Scenario, demand-response measures reduce the average household
electricity bill in advanced economies by 3-6% in 2030 and 7-12% in 2050 (Figure 4.25).
In emerging market and developing economies, bills could be reduced by up to 20% by
2050. The key in many countries is the rising use of solar PV, which incentivises a shift ofenergy consumption to daylight hours where possible. Major end-uses such as EV
charging and water heating provide the largest contributions. Additional savings comefrom operating appliances such as washing machines and refrigerators flexibly in line withprice signals.

Did short-term affordability measures help tame energy price spikes in 2022?
In 2022, household budgets were squeezed around the world as a result of soaring energy
prices. Wholesale prices for electricity, natural gas and other fuels were already increasing in
2021, but they rose further after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Government interventions
helped limit the impact on retail energy prices through measures such as grants and vouchers
for consumers, compensation for utilities that kept prices down, and exemptions fromenergy taxes and charges (IEA, 2023f). The majority of short-term affordability spending wasin Europe and other advanced economies. Wholesale energy prices have now passed theirpeak, but retail prices are falling more slowly and many support measures remain in place.
While support measures had an important part to play in avoiding unsustainable burdens onhouseholds during a period of crisis, they are a major burden for governments and risk
diminishing the incentive to use energy efficiently or to switch to cleaner fuels.
Figure 4.26 ⊳ Household energy expenditure in average household income
in selected countries, 2021 and 2022

8%

2021
2022

6%
4%

CanadaUnited States

Korea

Australia

Saudi Arabia

FranceUnited Kingdom

China

Indonesia

Japan

MexicoGermany

Spain

India

South Africa

BrazilItaly

Global2%

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Energy prices increased sharply in 2022, though support measures,
mild weather and behaviour change cushioned the impact on household incomes
Note: Residential energy expenditure for average households reflects energy bill rebates and relief payments.

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The global average share of household income spent on household energy bills increased
marginally in 2022. In Japan and South Africa and some countries in Europe, expenditure
shares increased by one percentage point on average, with much larger increases for lower
income households (Figure 4.26). Energy expenditure would have been even higher in somecases had residential demand not decreased. Government-led campaigns in a number ofcountries in Europe, encouraged consumers to adjust their thermostats, though somevulnerable households had no choice in any case but to cut back on heating their homes inview of skyrocketing energy prices.
The share of income directly spent on home energy bills remained flat or even declined incountries where there was substantial government support to keep retail bills down or a
relatively low level of dependence on imported fossil fuels for power generation, although
household budgets were still squeezed by higher transport fuel costs. In most emerging
market and developing economies, higher prices for transport fuel imposed a major burden
on households, as did rising food prices. Around 60% of the financial support provided bygovernments in emerging market and developing economies targeted high transport fuelprices.

Are clean energy technologies affordable for all consumers?
Consumers play a key role in shaping the clean energy transition when they choose to buy
clean energy technologies in order to benefit from lower energy bills. However, it remains
challenging for many consumers to find the money for important clean energy goods such as
EVs and heat pumps or to fund energy efficiency retrofits in buildings. In the United States,for example, high income households are ten-times more likely to own an EV than the lowest
income groups, and they also tend to have more solar panels and use more efficient
appliances and lighting technologies (Davis, 2023). One way of making clean energy
technologies more affordable is to use general energy taxation to encourage cleaner andmore efficient consumer choices, aiming incentives at lower income households in particular.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Some clean energy technologies are already competitive with fossil fuel alternatives, or arevery nearly so. In the United States, for example, air source heat pumps often do not cost
significantly more than gas boilers and can provide substantial savings over their lifetime. In
some markets, such as Sweden, they can even cost less than fossil fuel-powered alternatives.
Heat pump ownership is still typically less among low income households where upfront cost
barriers persist, which is the case in many parts of Europe. EVs, in particular smaller models
and two-wheelers, are often an exception: in some countries, such as China, they are alreadyavailable at prices that are comparable with (and sometimes lower than) those of gasoline
or diesel fuel options.
Energy efficiency retrofits in buildings require substantial upfront investment. This can beequivalent to up to nine months of income for poorer households, and can represent abarrier for most other households as well. As a result, few such retrofits take place, eventhough they bring down energy bills for decades (Figure 4.27). Well-designed financial
incentives remain crucial to scale up retrofits with high upfront costs across all income
groups: they can be gradually phased out for well-off households as purchase costs decrease.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Figure 4.27 ⊳ Purchase cost premium of clean energy solutions relative toMonths of income

months of income in selected major economies

12

25th percentile

75th percentile2022
2030 NZE

9
6

4

3

Heat pumpvs fossil boiler

EV vs
ICE carRetrofit Heat pump
EV vsvs none vs fossil boiler ICE car

Retrofitvs noneIEA. CC BY 4.0.

Upfront cost burdens of clean energy solutions remain high for lower income households,
but relative costs are set to fall by 2030 in the NZE Scenario
Notes: ICE = internal combustion engine. Cost premiums based on data for average size cars, residential
dwellings and heat pumps in China, France, Japan, United Kingdom and United States. Subsidies are notincluded. In China, electric cars on average are cost competitive with ICE cars.
Source: IEA analysis based on World Inequality Database (2022) and JATO Dynamics (2021).

4.4.3

Energy employment

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Nearly 67 million people worked in the energy industry worldwide in 2022, with clean energy– including low-emissions fuels, low-emissions power generation, power grids and storage,energy efficiency, and EVs and batteries – accounting for over half of all jobs. End-use sectors,
including energy efficiency and vehicle manufacturing, have the largest employment base(24 million workers), followed by the supply of fuels and critical minerals (22 million workers)
and the power sector (20 million workers). Most energy workers are in the Asia Pacificregion, with China alone accounting for almost 30% of all energy jobs. North America, Europe
and India account for just over 10% each.
In all the scenarios, job creation associated with clean energy technologies comfortably
outweighs job losses in fossil fuel and related industries through to 2030. In the NZE Scenario,
17 million additional jobs are generated in total (Figure 4.28). In some cases, jobs lost in one
sector could transfer to others. For example, many workers involved in the assembly ofinternal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles could switch to assembling EVs. In other cases,
however, new jobs created such as renewable power generation require training, may not
pay the same wages and may not be in the same places as the jobs lost in fossil fuel industries
such as coal mining. In such cases, targeted action by national and local governments,
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191

workers organisations and industry are needed to mitigate the social costs of the energy
transition and ensure that no workers are left behind.
Figure 4.28 ⊳ Changes in global energy employment by sector
in the STEPS and NZE Scenario, 2022-2030
Losses

Gains
STEPS

Total

NZE

-20

-10

0

10

-4

0

4

20

30

8

12

Net change

ICE vehicles
EVs and batteries
End-use efficiency
Grids and storage
Low-emissions power
Unabated power
Critical minerals
Low-emissions fuels
Coal supply
Oil and gas supply-8

Million workers
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Gains in clean energy employment more than compensate
for job losses in declining sectors in both scenarios to 2030
Notes: ICE vehicles = internal combustion engine vehicles; EVs = electric vehicles; unabated power = unabatedfossil fuel power. Critical minerals include only extractive activities.

Are labour shortages a barrier to meeting transition goals?

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The success of the energy transition will depend not only on technological innovation andthe mobilisation of capital but also on the millions of workers that will build and operateclean energy installations. The availability of properly skilled labour for the jobs that are being
created is already emerging as a potential bottleneck to achieve transition goals in the nearto medium term.
Construction represents the largest segment of clean energy employment today and by far
the most significant source of job growth through 2030 in the APS and NZE Scenario.
However, construction worker shortages are already threatening the pace of clean energy
installations in dozens of markets worldwide. It is also proving difficult to recruit adequate
numbers of tradespeople such as electricians, plumbers and welders, millions of which will
be needed for jobs across the entire energy value chain. The manufacturing sector, another
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

substantial area of energy employment growth, is also encountering staffing issues as labourdemand increases. Even in manufacturing-intensive economies such as China, factors
including shrinking working populations and a preference for white-collar jobs are preventing
the manufacturing workforce from increasing quickly enough to meet future demand.
A variety of measures will be necessary to attract the workers that are needed for the future.
Pay and working conditions will clearly be important, as will the provision of relevant
education and training. In the STEPS, more than one-third of clean energy jobs createdthrough 2030 are high-skilled and will generally require tertiary education, such as university
degrees, while an even higher share of medium-skilled jobs will necessitate vocational orapprentice style training. Vocational education in construction, engineering and other criticalareas has so far not managed to keep pace with the rising demand for this type and degreeof skills (Figure 4.29). Industry and educational institutions need to collaborate to fill this gap
and prepare the next generation of workers.
Figure 4.29 ⊳ Jobs by skill level in selected countries in the NZE Scenario
Compound annual growth rate

10%

High-skilled positions

Medium-skilled positions

5%2022-30
job growth
2014-20
conferral of
relevant degrees

0%
-5%

-10%

China

United EuropeanStates Union

China

United EuropeanStates Union
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Construction is the largest source of clean energy employment today; action is needed
to resolve labour shortages and meet expanding clean energy labour needs
Notes: Relevant degrees for high-skilled positions are bachelor degrees in science, technology, engineeringand mathematics; and for medium-skilled positions are vocational degrees including energy, engineering,mechanics and construction. Precise degrees included vary by country.
Sources: IEA analysis based on based on OECD (2023); China Ministry of Education (2021); US National Center
for Education Statistics (2020).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

4.4.4

Behavioural change

Energy demand depends on the behavioural choices of billions of consumers worldwide.
Behavioural changes are actions that energy consumers take to reduce wasteful or
unnecessary energy consumption and so help cut energy intensity. Many of these changes
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take place as part and parcel of daily life, and involve using energy differently or using less of
it. These changes depend in part on individual choices and evolving socio-cultural norms.
However, it is systemic transformations brought about by targeted and well-designed policy
interventions that count most in changing consumer behaviour, and these often depend on
the availability of infrastructure of one kind or another.
Technical options to reduce energy use are accelerated in the APS and maximised in the
NZE Scenario, but the pace of stock turnover imposes inherent constraints on what can beachieved by 2035. The behavioural changes in the APS reflect those incorporated into net
zero emissions pledges. These are mainly concerned with road transport, for example
including traffic reduction measures in cities. The behavioural changes in the NZE Scenario
are more wide ranging and systemic in nature, and include boosting shared mobility,
reducing speed limits, discouraging sport utility vehicle ownership and use, adjusting heating
and cooling temperatures in buildings, and switching from planes to trains orvideoconferencing where possible (Figure 4.30). The NZE Scenario also integrates financial
incentives and disincentives, for example including frequent flyer levies to reduce aviation
demand in an equitable way.
Figure 4.30 ⊳ Energy savings per capita from behavioural changes
by measure and scenario, 2035

Advanced economies

Emerging market anddeveloping economies-2-4

GJ/capita

-6
-8
-10

APS

NZE

APS

NZE

Low car cities
Shared mobility
Working from home
Speed limits
Other fuel efficiency
Reduced SUV use
High-speed rail
Frequent-flyer levy
Business flights
Space heating
Space cooling
Eco-household
Industry
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Energy savings per capita from behavioural changes in the APS are 6% of those in
the NZE Scenario; in both scenarios these savings happen mostly in advanced economies

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: GJ = gigajoule. Eco-household measures include: line drying clothes instead of using a dryer; reducing
laundry temperatures; switching off lights in unoccupied rooms; unplugging appliances when not in use andreducing water heating temperatures. See IEA (2022, 2021a) for details of other measures.

Behavioural changes in the NZE Scenario happen sooner and to a larger extent in wealthierparts of the world where there are the biggest opportunities to curb wasteful or excessive
194International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

energy consumption, as evidenced by the finding that the top 10% of emitters in the global
population were responsible for almost half of all energy-related CO2 emissions in 2021
(IEA, 2023g). Behavioural changes in the NZE Scenario help to bring about a more equitableand just energy transition. In 2035, on a per capita basis, the energy savings from behaviouralchanges in aviation are about nine-times bigger in advanced economies than in emerging
market and developing economies; in road transport and buildings they are about five-times
larger.
The role of behavioural changes in the energy transition shifts over time (Figure 4.31). In thenear term, behavioural changes are particularly important to address the decarbonisation
challenges of locked-in emissions from carbon-intensive assets, such as ICE cars on the roador fossil fuel boilers in homes. In 2030, they cut oil demand by 6% and natural gas demand
by 3% in the NZE Scenario compared with the STEPS. In the longer term, their impact onemissions fades as the energy system becomes increasingly clean, but they still significantly
reduce energy use in 2050.
Figure 4.31 ⊳ Energy savings from behavioural changes by fuel, 2022-2050
2022

2030

2050

2040

APS
-5
-10
-15
-20
NZE

EJ

-25
-30

Oil

Natural gas

Electricity

Modern bioenergy

Other
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Behavioural changes help reduce emissions by cutting fossil fuel use
in the near term and by curbing energy demand growth in the longer term

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Are there best practice policies emerging to trigger behavioural change?
The energy crisis of 2022 prompted behavioural interventions by European governments
seeking to reduce supply risk. For example, countries including Denmark, Germany, Irelandand Sweden launched national energy savings campaigns. The Sobriété Energétique (Energy
Sobriety) programme in France introduced a host of behavioural measures, for example,
reducing speed limits to 110 kilometres per hour on highways for government employees,
stipulating that lighting for businesses, offices and billboards must be switched off at night,
increasing cash incentives for remote working, and promoting carpooling.
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Table 4.2 ⊳Impacts of selected behavioural changes in the NZE Scenario
and similar existing measures

Measures in
NZE Scenario
Low car cities

Global impact in NZE Scenario
in 2030
Reduction in private car
activity by up to 15%.

Selected measures and their impacts• London: 18% reduction in private car travel withultra-low-emissions zones.
• Paris: 45% reduction in car journeys since 1990.

Reduction in total road
• Milan: 35% reduction in local CO2 emissions withtransport CO2 emissions by 5%.
low-emissions zones.
Increase in public transport.

• London: 33% increase in bus travel with ultra-lowemissions zones.
• Madrid: 9% increase in public transport use with
low-emissions zones.

Private car sales reduced
by 9%.

• United States: around 4% decrease of vehicle sales
per capita following shared mobility schemes.

Improved well-being from:• Jakarta: 1 000% increase in cyclists related to
300 km of new cycle lanes.
• More active transport• London: 30% less congestion with ultra-low• Less congested roads• Lower noise and air pollution emissions zones.
• Improved health and safety. • Milan: 18% reduction in particulate and NOX
pollution with low-emissions zones; 24% decreasein road casualties.
Shift short-haul
flights tohigh-speed rail

Reduction in CO2 emissions• France: 3% reduction of CO2 emissions fromfrom domestic aviation by 2%.
domestic aviation with ban on short-haul flights(estimated); 77-times less CO2 emissions perpassenger on impacted routes.
Reduction in noise andair pollution.

• United States: 3 500 tonnes of harmful pollutants
avoided through the California High-Speed Rail
Authority Project when in operation.

Avoid flights for
Reduction in long-haul flights • China: 26% reduction in business trips comparedbusiness when not for business purposes by 43%.
to pre-Covid pandemic levels (survey).
necessary• Brazil: 44% reduction in business trips compared
to pre-pandemic levels (survey).
Save electricity
Household electricity
with eco-household consumption reduced by 7%.
measures• Japan: 7% saving in residential electricity
consumption due to campaigns.
• France: electricity savings of 9-22% relative to2022 due to the Energy Sobriety plan.

Moderate space
Household natural gas• Germany: 10-42% reduction in natural gas
heating to 19-20 °C consumption reduced by 10%.
consumption in households and businesses
relative to projected.
• France: 17% reduction in natural gas demand
relative to 2021 levels.
Moderate space
Reduction in electricity spacecooling to 24-25 °C cooling demand by 7%.

• India: an estimated 8% reduction in electricity
demand for space cooling due to pre-purchasedefault temperature setting of 24 °C.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: Eco-household measures include: line drying clothes instead of using a dryer; reducing laundry
temperatures; switching off lights in unoccupied rooms; unplugging appliances when not in use; and reducing
water heating temperatures. See IEA (2022, 2021a) for details of other measures.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Globally, behavioural policies are being employed by governments at an accelerating rate. In
the Group of 20 (G20), for example, the number of policies supporting behavioural changes
has more than doubled since 2021. Around 50 countries have included behavioural measures
to some extent in their NDCs or strategies to reach net zero emissions targets. For example,
the NDCs of Bangladesh and Türkiye include targets for modal shifts from road transport torail, while Colombia and Austria have set percentage increase targets for bicycle use. Thereis increasing awareness of the potential for policy interventions to encourage and facilitate
behavioural change, alongside a recognition that clean energy transitions cannot happen
without the consent, active support and engagement of people.
In terms of their design, scope and impact, the behavioural changes in the NZE Scenario aresimilar to many of the recent measures enacted by governments and sub-national
jurisdictions (Table 4.2). For example, private car activity declines by up to 15% in the
NZE Scenario by 2030 – a reduction similar in size to the one seen in London since theintroduction of an Ultra-Low-Emissions Zone in 2019 (18%) – and far lower than the drop
seen in Paris (45%) stemming from measures such as the addition of more than 300 km of
bicycle lanes and limits on the road space available for private cars.

4.5

Investment and finance needs

Energy investment is crucially important in each of our scenarios. In the STEPS, global energy
investment rises to USD 3.2 trillion in 2030, nearly 15% higher than estimated levels for 2023
(USD 2.8 trillion). Clean energy investment accounts for all the increase, with fossil fuelinvestment falling slightly to USD 1.1 trillion. The total increase in investment is larger in the
APS (a 40% increase from 2022 levels by 2030) and NZE Scenario (a 80% increase from 2022
levels by 2030) given the need for more upfront capital for clean energy investment. Clean
energy accounts for USD 3.1 trillion of the USD 3.8 trillion invested in 2030 in the APS, and
USD 4.2 trillion of the USD 4.7 trillion invested in 2030 in the NZE Scenario (Figure 4.32).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Advanced economies more than double their clean energy investment by 2030 in the
NZE Scenario, while investment in China nearly doubles from its current level. The rise inother emerging market and developing economies is much larger, with clean energy
investment rising in the NZE Scenario in 2030 to five-times today’s level. The scale of theincrease that is required in part reflects the difficulties that the countries in question have so
far found in ramping up clean energy investment. Scaling up clean energy investment in these
economies is a key challenge for orderly and just transitions and requires actions in threeinter-related areas:A clearly-articulated and ambitious vision for clean energy, underpinned by effective
changes to policy and regulatory regimes.



Investment in human and institutional capacity and strong energy sector governance tohelp generate a pipeline of well-structured programmes and projects.

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4



Enhanced international support, including significantly more concessional finance andtechnical assistance to mitigate country and project risks and to act as an anchor for new
instruments and platforms capable of attracting domestic and international investment
capital at scale. Bilateral and multilateral development banks have an important role toplay in advising on policy frameworks, financing and helping to develop early-stage
projects, and using concessional capital to mobilise larger multiples of private capital.

Billion USD (2022, MER)

Figure 4.32 ⊳ Annual energy sector investment by scenario, 2030
Advanced economies

China

Other EMDE

2022 STEPS APS NZE
2030

2022 STEPS APS NZE
2030

2022 STEPS APS NZE
2030

1 200

800

400

Low-emissions power

Energy efficiency and end-use

Clean energy supply

Fossil fuels
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Clean energy investment gaps are largest in emerging
and developing economies other than China
Note: MER = market exchange rate; EMDE = emerging market and developing economies.

Are we investing enough in energy efficiency and end-use decarbonisation?

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Demand-side investment is sometimes overlooked in discussions on energy transitions, but
it has a crucial part to play. It includes in particular investment to boost energy efficiency andencourage behavioural change; to accelerate expanded electrification of mobility and heat
via EVs and heat pumps; and to increase the direct use of renewables for heating, coolingand industrial processes, for example by using solar water heaters and by deploying thermalenergy storage to electrify industrial heat processes.
Current trends in these areas are mixed. Investment in electrified end-use applications isrising rapidly, reflecting the burgeoning sales of EVs and heat pumps, mainly in Europe, China
and North America. Investment in efficiency received something of a boost from stimulus
packages related to the Covid-19 pandemic, and also from exceptionally high energy prices
in 2022 that provided signals to consumers to adopt more energy efficient solutions. But
there are signs that efficiency investment is flattening in 2023 amid a slowdown inconstruction activity, higher borrowing costs and strains on household and corporate
budgets.
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There is a large gap between current trends and the investment required to get on track for
the NZE Scenario. The NZE Scenario sees a doubling of investment in energy efficiency
measures by 2030 and a broad-based rise in end-use electrification (Figure 4.33). This not
only helps to reduce emissions but improves health outcomes, insulates consumers from fuelprice volatility, and improves energy security and the balance of payments for countries
dependent on imported fuels. Many of the largest gaps in efficiency investment are in
emerging market and developing economies, reflecting the difficulty that many households
and businesses face in managing upfront costs, and the relative weakness of policy
frameworks and enforcement in many countries.

4

Figure 4.33 ⊳ Energy efficiency and end-use decarbonisation spendingby sector In the NZE Scenario in 2030 relative to 2023e
Energy efficiency

Index (2023e = 1)

Other
EMDE

Electrification and end-use renewables

23.0

50.3
2.2

2.3

5.5

0.6

1.3

1.0

3.5

China
5.6
Advanced
economies

2.0

3.0

7.0
1.4

0.7

2.0

2.6

Buildings

Transport

Industry

Buildings

2.6
Transport

Industry
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Clean energy spending for end-uses such as EVs and heat pumps ramps up rapidly,
especially in emerging market and developing countries other than China
Note: 2023e = estimated values for 2023; EMDE = emerging market and developing economies.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Energy efficiency in the buildings sector stands out as in particular need of higher investment:in the NZE Scenario, it requires a sixfold increase in spending by 2030 in China and a 23-foldrise in other emerging market and developing economies. The urban population is increasing
rapidly in most developing economies, and ensuring that new buildings meet highperformance standards for heating and cooling presents a huge opportunity to minimise
future strains on energy supply and to limit emissions. However, relatively few developing
economies other than India have so far put energy efficiency building codes in place.
When it comes to electrification of energy end-uses, more investment is needed in all regionsin the NZE Scenario. In recent years, more than half of global EV sales took place in China,
but it will still need to double investment by 2030 (USD 150 billion) and advanced economies
will need to increase spending by a factor of seven to meet investment levels in the
Chapter 4 | Secure and people-centred energy transitions

199

NZE Scenario (USD 370 billion). Emerging market and developing economies other thanChina will need to increase investment to USD 110 billion, which is more than 50-times
higher than current levels. Electric two/three-wheelers are widely available in many
developing economies, as are electric buses, but in most cases EV deployment levels are only
just starting to rise: the share of electric cars in total sales was 3% in Thailand in 2022, and1.5% in India and Indonesia (IEA, 2023h).
Rising debt levels and higher borrowing costs mean that few developing economies will havethe budgetary space to replicate the EV purchase subsidies that have driven the EV boom in
China and advanced economies, and they will need international support to increase theuptake of EVs. The concessional funding needed for emerging market and developing
economies other than China to support transport energy efficiency and decarbonisation in
the NZE Scenario is estimated at around USD 10 billion annually by the early 2030s. This could
focus initially on reducing the cost of electric two/three-wheelers, e-buses and taxi fleets tomake them more affordable with provision of concessional finance and grants: it will alsoneed to support investment in charging infrastructure. Not all potential actions depend on
the availability of concessional finance (Box 4.4). For light-duty vehicles, for example,
governments in emerging market and developing economies could introduce differentiatedimport duties that favour EVs. They could also consider policy packages that include vehicle
efficiency standards, pollution emissions standards and differential fuel taxation measures.
Box 4.4 ⊳Role of finance in energy transitions

Achieving the increase in investment in clean energy in the NZE Scenario by 2050 requires
a major reallocation of capital across the energy sector and a reconfiguration of the
global financial infrastructure to accommodate this shift. This holds particularly true if
the investment gap in emerging market and development economies is to be closed, as
about 80% of the world’s financial assets today are currently held in advanced
economies. Finding mechanisms that will enable the channelling of funds at scale toemerging market and development economies is no easy task, and few proven models
exist today. The challenge is made more difficult by the high upfront costs of key
technologies that are needed as part of clean energy transitions, notably in the powerand end-use sectors. This makes the ability to borrow and service a larger share of debt
and ensure adequate risk-adjusted returns on investment for equity holders critical toattract investment.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Equity has underpinned the majority of annual energy investments to date and plays apivotal role in funding clean energy transitions (IEA, 2021b). It is typically used to fundearly-stage business models, new technologies with high upfront risks and projects that
require long lead times. The availability of equity financing also often underpins
investment in end-use sectors such as energy efficiency or electrification, such as heatpumps, where transaction sizes are generally smaller but where small and medium size
enterprises face higher lending rates than larger corporate entities.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Although equity funding remains crucial, the capital structure of investment seen in the
NZE Scenario relies on a significant increase in debt financing, with sustainable financeplaying an increasingly important role in channelling funds from capital markets into
clean energy projects. Green and sustainable debt has been developing rapidly in recent
years – it reached USD 1.5 trillion in 2022 – but it still accounts for a small share of global
bond issuances (5% in 2022) and is disproportionately concentrated in advanced
economies (80% of issuances in 2022) (IEA, 2023i). Where issuances in emerging market
and developing economies do occur, they are still dominated by hard currency, exposing
them to foreign exchange risk. In the NZE Scenario, improvements in regulatory
standards in emerging market and developing economies and the rise of large-scale
sovereign issuances mean that green debt products quickly translate into newinvestment in clean energy in those countries.
In addition to a rise in debt financing, the NZE Scenario sees more private sector backed
financing, more financing from domestic sources, and more concessional financeprovided by DFIs and specialised mechanisms such as climate finance or carbon markets.
These all contribute to some extent to closing the investment gap in emerging market
and development economies.

What are the implications of our scenarios for investment in oil and gas?
Determining the appropriate level of investment in oil and gas is a fraught and emotive issue
in the energy debate. Some, including large resource-holders and certain oil and gas
companies, maintain that the world is prematurely turning away from investment in oil andgas, and that the payback for today’s underinvestment, as they see it, will be a period of
sharp fuel price spikes and volatility down the road. Others argue that oil and gas investment
is already unacceptably high given the imperative to tackle climate change, and that further
overinvestment, as they see it, will lock the world to a pathway that pushes global averagetemperatures well beyond 1.5 °C.
What do the scenarios tell us about this crucial issue? Four key findings are highlighted:

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The oil and gas investment message from our analysis of the outlook in the STEPS has
evolved. Until this year, we saw a gap between the amounts being invested in oil andgas and the future requirements of this scenario. Our recommended solution was toscale up clean energy spending and thereby reduce the requirement for oil and gas.
What has happened in practice is that oil and gas investment has risen, while the levelof oil and gas investment needed in the STEPS in 2030 has fallen as a result of lower
projections of future oil and gas demand. As a result, current investment levels areadequate to meet projected supply needs in the STEPS. There is no longer a need – inany of the scenarios that we model – for oil and gas investment in 2030 to be higher
than it is today Sentiment in the industry seems to be broadly aligned with this view:less than half of the available cashflows from record revenues in 2022 went back into

Chapter 4 | Secure and people-centred energy transitions

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4

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

new oil and gas investment, and current upstream spending remains below where it wasin 2019.
The invasion of Ukraine disrupted the global energy system and resulted in a lower levelof exports of oil and gas from Russia. Consumers needed to adjust to this, and that has
now happened. Shortfalls in supply from Russia are no longer a reason to argue forhigher oil and gas investment.



Today’s level of investment in all fossil fuels, including oil and gas, is significantly higher
than what is needed in the APS and double what is needed in the NZE Scenario in 2030.
This implies that fossil fuel investors think that the STEPS describes the likely future moreaccurately than the APS or the NZE Scenario. The current level of investment creates theclear risk of locking in fossil fuel use and putting the 1.5 °C goal out of reach. However,
simply cutting spending on oil and gas will not get the world on track for the
NZE Scenario – the key is to scale up investment in all aspects of a clean energy system,
especially in emerging market and developing economies, and to meet rising demandfor energy services in a sustainable way.

Both overinvestment and underinvestment in oil and gas carry risks for secure energy
transitions. Evaluating the implications of investments is not straightforward: among
other things, any assessment needs to take into account the source of investment andthe likely efficiency of the spending. Policy makers also need to keep a watchful eye inthis context on trends that could point to a future concentration in supply or otherenergy security risks. But when it comes to the overall adequacy of spending, ouranalysis suggests that the risks are weighted more towards overinvestment in oil andgas than the opposite.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Chapter 5
Regional insights
Different starting points, different pathways
S U M M A R Y• This chapter focuses on the prospects for selected countries and regions over theperiod to 2050 under the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which considers the current
policy landscape and market conditions, and the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS),
which assumes all long-term commitments are met in full and on time. Together theseselected countries and regions account for nearly 90% of global energy consumption
today.

• The global energy crisis prompted a range of new initiatives, notably in advanced
economies and China, that aim to increase the pace of clean energy deployment.
Measures vary from region to region, but they all tend to place greater emphasis on
boosting the share of renewables in electricity generation, incentivising electric car
sales and improving energy efficiency.

• Energy needs in many emerging market and developing economies are increasing
rapidly, which require major new investment in energy infrastructure ranging fromelectricity generation and grids to electric vehicle charging stations. Levels of ambition
vary, but there is a widespread recognition that clean energy technologies can offer
cost-effective solutions for a range of development objectives. Some emerging
market and developing economies face difficulties to obtain financing. Concessional
funding has a role to play in this regard, as do initiatives such as the Just Energy
Transition Partnerships.

• Several countries have adopted policies that encourage the diversification of supply
chains for clean energy technologies. This includes policies to promote clean energy
technology manufacturing, for instance, the Inflation Reduction Act in the UnitedStates, the Net Zero Industry Act in the European Union and the Production Linked
Incentives scheme in India.

• Despite moves by countries to reduce dependence on imported fuels and on
geographically concentrated clean energy technology supply chains, the need forinternational trade and co-operation remains strong. No country can expect to bewholly self-sufficient, and most will continue to depend on imports and exports.
International collaboration on innovation in particular will remain vital in thedevelopment of clean energy technologies.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• Today, a number of countries rely heavily on revenue from oil and gas production,and they face the prospect that these revenues will decline as clean energy transitions
advance. This underlines the need for broader economic diversification tocompensate for falling fossil fuel export revenue in the APS. Some countries are
already taking steps in that direction.

Chapter 5 | Regional insights203

76 000

End-use modern energy consumption per capita (GJ)

A world of regions

336

200
Key economic and energy indicators
in 2022 highlight diverse starting points,
among the selected countries and regionalgroupings, the United States has both thehighest per capita income and energy
demand, while Africa has the lowest.

54 000449

100
Population (million people)
GDP per capita (USD 2022, PPP)

1 424
5 800
AfricaIndia

Southeast
Latin
China
Asia
America andthe Caribbean

45%

65%

of the electricity
generated in the
United States in
2030 is fromrenewables, up
from 22% todayof all cars sold in
the European
Union are electricby 2030

European
Union

MiddleEast

Japan and
Korea

Eurasia

UnitedStatesWith the deployment of clean energy technologies
reshaping the future energy supply mix across theworld, international co-operation for security, tradeand innovation will continue to remain prominent.

Total energy supply

2X

18%

Energy demand forwater desalination
doubles by 2030
in the Middle Eastof the electricity
generated in India
is from solar
sources by 2030,
up from 6% today

100
millionelectric cars on theroad in China by 2030

2022 2050 2050
STEPS APS

Other
Renewables
Natural gas
Oil
Coal

55%

growth by 2030 in
Latin America andthe Caribbean
revenue from theproduction ofcritical minerals
used in clean
energy technologies

1.2 billion
Africans receive
access to clean
cooking if thecontinent achieves
universal energy
access by 2030

Note: The numbers in yellow reflect the STEPS, except for
Latin America and the Caribbean (APS), and Eurasia and Africa (NZE Scenario).

USD
17 billionin spending canreduce methane
emissions from oil
and gas operations
in Eurasia by 75%

45%

18 GW

of the two/threewheelers sold inSoutheast Asia areelectric by 2030of new offshore
wind capacity
added in Japanand Korea by 2030

5.1

Introduction

The chapter examines selected regions and countries which together account for nearly 90%
of global GDP, population and energy demand. It highlights the specific issues and dynamics
that affect them, taking account of their very different specific circumstances and ambitions.
Starting points for the analysis vary widely and depend on a host of factors that include
population, urbanisation, per capita income, economic structure, availability of natural
resources and geography. Each section includes some common elements that describe theoverarching trajectories for energy and emissions, key findings and the main factors that help
to explain them. Each section also provides insights on one or two topical issues that highlight
distinctive aspects of the projections. Table 5.1 highlights key indicators for the selected
countries and regions.
Table 5.1 ⊳Population(million)

Total energy
Electricity
supplydemand(EJ)(kWh per capita)

Cars perthousandpeopleCO2emissions(Gt)

CO2emissions(t per capita)

United States

336

94

12 133

682

4.7

14

Latin America andthe Caribbean

658

37

2 253

137

1.7

3

449

56

5 521

557

2.7

6

1 425

36

508

25

1.4

1

European Union
Africa5

Key economic and energy indicators by region/country, 2022

Middle East

265

36

4 190

175

2.1

8

Eurasia

238

42

5 051

193

2.4

10

China

1 420

160

5 612

201

12.1

9

India

1 417

42

926

31

2.6

2

Japan and Korea

177

29

8 703

490

1.7

9

Southeast Asia

679

30

1 592

63

1.7

3

Note: EJ = exajoules; kWh = kilowatt-hours; Gt = gigatonnes; t = tonnes.

Notes to key energy and emissions trends across regions

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Each section in this chapter has a key trends figure that shows trajectories for oil, natural gas
and coal primary energy demand, electricity supply, investment and carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions. In all figures, the STEPS outlook for a particular sector or technology is shown
more prominently in a darker colour, with the lighter area representing the remaining
contribution of other sectors or technologies. Investment data are presented in real terms in
year-2022 US dollars (USD) converted at market exchange rates.
CO2 emissions refer to net energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. Common units andacronyms used in the figures include: mb/d = million barrels per day; Mt = million tonnes;
Mtce = million tonnes of coal equivalent; bcm = billion cubic metres; GW = gigawatts; GWh= gigawatt-hours; TWh = terawatt-hours; EJ = exajoules; Gt CO2 = gigatonnes of carbon
dioxide; PV = photovoltaics.
Chapter 5 | Regional insights

205

5.2

United States

5.2.1

Key energy and emissions trends

Figure 5.1 ⊳Key trends in the United States, 2010-2050

Oil demand (mb/d)

20

1 000

Natural gas demand (bcm)

500

10

2050

Industry

2010

2050

Electricity generation (TWh)Investment (billion USD)
1 000
10 000

500

5 000

2050

2010
STEPS

2010

6

2050

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

3

Clean energy

Solar PV2010

Coal demand (Mtce)

400

Buildings

Transport
2010

800

2050

Power
2010

2050

APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The United States has mobilised unprecedented levels of government support to boost clean
energy and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (Table 5.2). The principal legislative
vehicles are the Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, which invests
around USD 190 billion for clean energy and mass transit, and the US Inflation Reduction Act
of 2022, which provides an estimated USD 370 billion in funding to promote energy security
and combat climate change. In the STEPS, these and other initiatives result in a reduction ofnearly 40% in CO2 emissions by 2030, relative to the 2005 level (Figure 5.1).
The largest impact of the increased government support is in the power sector, followed bytransport and industry. In the STEPS, CO2 emissions in 2030 in the power sector are 50%
lower than today. This is largely the result of tax credits that accelerate the deployment ofsolar photovoltaics (PV) and wind. The reduction in emissions also reflects support forlifetime extensions of nuclear power plants, as well as batteries and carbon capture,utilisation and storage (CCUS) technology. In the transport sector, tax credits for electric carsand investment in charging infrastructure lead to annual sales of electric cars rising from
1 million in 2022 and 1.6 million in 2023 to close to 8 million in 2030, by which they account206

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

for 50% of new car registrations. Technologies that aid emissions reductions in hard-to-abate
industrial sectors, such as CCUS and low-emissions hydrogen, are eligible for substantial tax
credits, which can lay the foundation for strong growth in the years ahead. By attracting
private capital, these incentives collectively support a doubling in clean energy investmentin the United States by 2030 over 2022 levels. There is also a notable increase in cross-cutting
investment in technology innovation.
These investments further accelerate reductions in demand for coal, which faces increasingly
strong competition from renewables and natural gas. In the STEPS, coal demand falls byalmost three-quarters by 2030 relative to the current level, largely thanks to solar PV andwind increasing their share of electricity generation. Natural gas demand is higher than thelevel in 2022 for several years, but peaks in the mid-2020s and then begins to decline, mostly
as a result of lower demand in the power and buildings sectors. Oil demand falls by nearly
2 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2030 from around 18 mb/d today, largely due to rising
electric vehicle (EV) sales and fuel economy improvements.
Table 5.2 ⊳Key policy initiatives in the United States

PolicyDescription

Inflation Reduction Act• Commits nearly USD 370 billion for energy security and climate change.

Bipartisan Infrastructure • Commits around USD 550 billion in total federal investment, including
Investment and Jobs Act
around USD 190 billion for clean energy and mass transit infrastructure.
Methane Emissions
Reduction Action Plan

• Focuses on cutting methane emissions from the largest sources, including oil
and natural gas production, landfills and the agricultural sector.

Updated Nationally• Aiming to reduce GHG emissions by 50‐52% by 2030 from 2005 levels.
Determined Contribution • National target to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050.
State-level clean
electricity targets• 100% carbon‐free electricity or energy targets by 2050 in 22 states plus
Puerto Rico and Washington DC.

Fuel economy standards• Requirements to improve by 8% per year for light-duty vehicles for modelyears 2024‐2025 and by 10% for model year 2026 relative to 2021 levels.

Zero emissions vehicles(ZEV) targets• California ZEV mandate for cars beginning in 2026 and rising to 100% of sales
in 2035 (Advanced Clean Cars II). Other states have adopted this mandate.
• California regulations to boost the deployment of medium- and heavy-duty
ZEVs (Advanced Clean Trucks). Other states followed the same example.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Exports of oil and gas from the United States are set to pick up in the coming years, in part
because of lower export volumes from Russia (notably for natural gas). In the STEPS, theUnited States maintains its status as the world’s largest natural gas exporter through to 2030.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from the United States increase by 75% from 2022 levels
to reach 185 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2030, of which 95 bcm is transported to theEuropean Union. Efforts to reduce methane emissions, along with efficiency and fuelswitching policies, increase the availability and value proposition of US oil and gas exports.
The updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of the United States shows asubstantial increase in ambition to 2030 in line with its pledge to reach net zero emissions by
Chapter 5 | Regional insights

207

5

2050. Its commitment to reduce GHG emissions by 50-52% in 2030 from 2005 levels requires
continuing efforts to accelerate deployment of renewables and other low-emissions
technologies. Scaling up batteries and other forms of storage will also be important, as wellas action to modernise, digitalise and expand grids in a timely manner.

5.2.2

How much have the US Inflation Reduction Act and other recent
policies changed the picture for clean energy transitions?

The Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and otherrecent policies have reshaped the US energy outlook. Targeting a broad set of technologies
across many sectors, the incentives now available are making clean energy investment more
attractive, prompting faster deployment of clean energy technologies and the developmentof new clean energy manufacturing capacities in the United States. Our updated assessmentin the STEPS clearly demonstrates the significant impact of these policies when compared tothe outlook prior to these policies in the Stated Policies Scenario from the World Energy
Outlook-2021 (hereinafter referenced as WEO-2021 STEPS) (IEA, 2021).

Clean energy deployment and CO2 emissions
Figure 5.2 ⊳Clean energy technology growth and energy-related
CO2 emissions in the United States in the STEPSGt CO₂

Clean technology growth, 2021-2030
Electric vehicle sales
Low-emissionshydrogen production

Energy-related CO₂ emissions

5
4

WEO-2021 STEPS

3

Solar PV installedcapacity

2

Wind installedcapacity

1
5

STEPS:

6

10
15
Index (2021 = 1)
WEO-2021
WEO-2023

2010
Transport
Power

2050
Buildings

Industry
Other

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The Inflation Reduction Act spurs clean energy technology deployment

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

and accelerates the pace of CO2 emissions reductions

The Inflation Reduction Act and other recent policies have significantly improved the outlook
for a host of clean energy technologies. Electric vehicle sales in 2030 are projected in thisWorld Energy Outlook (WEO-2023) STEPS to be 13-times the 2021 level, compared with justa threefold increase in WEO-2021 STEPS (Figure 5.2). Carbon capture projects completed by2030 in the STEPS, including those under construction, are set to capture three-times thevolume of CO2 emissions as in 2021, double the increase projected prior to the Inflation
208

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Reduction Act, while low-emissions hydrogen is now expected to gain much more than themodest foothold projected in the WEO-2021. Wind and solar PV have also benefited
significantly from the support now available for clean energy technologies. As a result of
these changes, energy-related CO2 emissions decline to 3.6 gigatonnes (Gt) by 2030 in the
STEPS, 10% below the level in 2030 projected in the WEO-2021 STEPS. The power sector
accounts for most of the difference, followed by transport and industry, but all sectors makea contribution. The accelerated progress made by 2030 also paves the way for more rapid
progress in succeeding years: emissions in 2050 are now projected to be one-third below thelevel expected before the Inflation Reduction Act came into force.

TWh

Figure 5.3 ⊳2 000

Electricity generation from selected sources in the United Statesin the STEPS, 2022 and 2030
Low-emissions sources

5

Unabated fossil fuels
2022

1 600

2030 STEPS:

1 200

WEO-2021

WEO-2023

800
400
Solar
PV

Wind

Nuclear

Coal

Naturalgas
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The Inflation Reduction Act accelerates deployment of solar PV and wind, supports

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

nuclear lifetime extensions and leads to an 80% reduction in unabated coal power by 2030

In the power sector, the boost provided by the Inflation Reduction Act for both existing andnew low-emissions sources of electricity accelerates the transition away from coal-fired
generation and reduces CO2 emissions. If all the conditions are met to receive the maximum
available tax credits for solar and wind, then the levelised cost to consumers of new solar PV
and wind in the United States is expected to be lower than anywhere else in the world. These
incentives are attracting private investors. By 2030, solar PV output surpasses 800 terawatthours (TWh) in the STEPS (two-thirds above the level projected in WEO-2021 STEPS) andwind reaches 1 000 TWh (almost 50% above the level in the WEO-2021 STEPS) (Figure 5.3).
Tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act also support lifetime extensions of nuclear power
plants, which are one of the cheapest sources of low-emissions electricity. As a result of thesevarious incentives, unabated coal-fired power falls by about 80% in the STEPS, comparedwith about 50% in the WEO-2021 STEPS. Unabated natural gas-fired generation also declines
by more than projected prior to the Inflation Reduction Act.
Chapter 5 | Regional insights

209

Clean energy manufacturing
In recent years, clean energy manufacturing has been insufficient to meet domestic needs in
the United States. For example, in 2022, the domestic content of wind turbine blades andhubs was about half and only one-third of solar PV modules were produced domestically.
While imports of clean energy components will continue, and would benefit from more
supply diversity, the Inflation Reduction Act provides significant incentives to boost domestic
clean energy manufacturing in the interests of maximising the domestic benefits of thetransition to clean energy and of national security. These incentives have resulted in a
number of announcements from companies looking to develop new clean energy
manufacturing capabilities in the United States, including plans for the production ofhydrogen, batteries, solar PV and wind turbines (Table 5.3). The United States has witnesseda surge in announcements of large manufacturing facilities over the past year. Gigafactory
capacity, expected to remain operational until 2030, increased from 750 gigawatt-hours(GWh) in July 2022 to 1.2 TWh by September 2023, due in large part to the support in the
Inflation Reduction Act (Benchmark Minerals Intelligence, 2023).
Table 5.3 ⊳New announcements for clean energy technology
manufacturing in the United States

Technology

Description

Hydrogenproduction• Aim to reach over 5.5 Mt of hydrogen by 2030 (mainly coupled with CCUS).
• Top-five projects account for around half of the capacity target. The largest project would
produce 1 Mt of hydrogen per year and be online in 2028.

Batteries• Aim for production capacity of 1.2 TWh by 2030, about 12-times the current level.
• Top-five projects account for one-third of the capacity target. Tesla alone has announced
260 GWh production capacity by 2030.

Solar PV• Exceeding 40 GW production capacity for solar modules by 2030, up from 7 GW today.

Wind• 1.5 GW production capacity of offshore nacelles by the end of this decade.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Sources: IEA analysis based on BNEF (2023a, 2023b), Wood Mackenzie (2023), SPV Market Research (2023)
and Benchmark Minerals Intelligence (2023).

An increase in manufacturing capacities will help the United States to create more resilient
supply chains for clean energy technologies, though these will inevitably take time todevelop. Around USD 150 billion in planned investment has been announced so far for key
technologies, including batteries, EVs, charging infrastructure, offshore wind, and solar (USDepartment of Energy, 2023). With these investments, the United States is likely to be able
to meet all or most of its domestic needs for hydrogen electrolysers, EV and stationary
battery deployment by 2030. However, even with a sixfold increase in solar PV module
manufacturing, the United States would still only produce about 10% of what is needed for2030 deployment in the STEPS. The figure for wind is even lower, and there have been few
announcements so far about planned increases in domestic manufacturing capacity for wind
power components. Ensuring resilient and diverse international supply chains is therefore
going to remain important as clean energy deployment ramps up.
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5.3

Latin America and the Caribbean

5.3.1

Key energy and emissions trends

Figure 5.4 ⊳10

Key trends in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2010-2050

Oil demand (mb/d)

300

Natural gas demand (bcm)

150

5

40

Industry

Buildings

Transport
2010

Coal demand (Mtce)

80

2050

2010

2050

2010

Electricity generation (TWh)Investment (billion USD)
5 000
400

2

2 500

1

200

Solar PV
2010

Clean energy

2050

2010
STEPS

2050

2050

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

Power
2010

2050

APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is a diverse and strategically important region withstrong connections to major global markets. It comprises 8% of the world population and 7%of global GDP and is one of the most highly urbanised regions in the world, with 82% of its
people living in cities. Its economy today is closely tied to the production of fuels, minerals
and food for export, exposing it to volatility in international markets and price cycles. The
region is coming out of a “lost decade” of economic growth punctuated by the
Covid-19 pandemic and the global energy crisis. Curbing high inflation and pursuing
opportunities in the new energy economy could help to spur an economic rebound.
Half of the countries in LAC have pledged to achieve net zero emissions by mid-century or
earlier. They account for around 65% of the LAC GDP and 60% of its energy-related CO2
emissions. To reach these goals, LAC countries need not only to speed up the deployment ofclean energy technologies but also to tackle deforestation. While energy accounts for about
less than half of total GHG emissions in the region, agriculture and land-use change play an
outsized role, and they are responsible respectively for 25% and 20% of total GHG emissions.
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Table 5.4 ⊳Key policy initiatives in Latin America and the Caribbean

PolicyDescription

Net zero emissions
targets• In place in 16 out of 33 countries, representing 65% of GDP and 60% of CO2
emissions from fuel combustion.

Nationally Determined • Submitted by all 33 countries, including 29 with updated targets, translating
Contributions (NDCs)
into a level of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion of 1.7-1.8 Gt CO2 in 2030.
Environmental
governance• Fifteen countries ratified the Escazú Agreement – Regional Agreement on
Access to Information, Public Participation and Justice in Environmental Matters.

Deforestation targets• In place in 8 countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominica, Guatemala,Mexico and Suriname).

Hydrogen strategy• In place in 8 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador,
Panama, Uruguay) and 4 countries with strategies announced but still in
preparation (Bolivia, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago).

Access targets• Set in 11 countries for electricity access (24 out of 33 countries have alreadyreached 95% access rate); 7 countries for clean cooking (12 out of 33 countries
have already reached 95% access rate).

Zero emissions
vehicle policies• In place in 16 countries (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica,
Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama,Paraguay, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay).

Total energy supply in LAC is set to increase as a result of population and economic growth.
In the STEPS, energy supply increases by 10% from 2022 to 2030 and 35% by 2050, with theshare of supply that comes from fossil fuels decreasing slightly as deployment of renewables
increases. The slight decrease in the share of fossil fuels in energy supply is not enough toprevent energy-related CO2 emissions in the region from rising 10% higher than current levels
in 2050 (Figure 5.4).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In the STEPS, electricity demand rises over time, twice as fast as fossil fuels. Final energy
consumption in LAC today is primarily oil, most of which is used in transport, but the shareof oil is set to decline as countries seek alternative transport fuels: Brazil leads in biofuel
adoption, while Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Mexico are prioritising the rapid uptake ofEVs. Expanding ownership of appliances and air conditioners leads to higher use of electricity
in LAC households: by 2050, two-thirds of energy in the buildings sector is electricity. The
industry sector in LAC is less energy intensive than the global average, with non-energy
intensive sectors (especially the food sector) accounting for 45% of industrial energy demand(compared to 30% globally), and their use of electricity also increases. Electricity in LAC today
is primarily from hydropower and natural gas, but solar PV and wind make up the vast
majority of new electricity supply in the STEPS. Low-emissions sources, which accounted forover 60% of total generation in 2022, rise to over 80% by 2050. Natural gas remains thelargest fossil fuel, and it is the only fossil fuel that sees an increment on its output of almost
25%, while coal and oil use decline by at least 75% over the period.
In the APS, meeting NDCs and net zero emissions targets cuts energy-related CO2 emissions
by 10% by 2030 and 50% by 2050, relative to the 2022 level (Table 5.4). Energy efficiency
plays a key role in moderating electricity demand increases in the buildings sector, while
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further electrification of transport helps to reduce the share of fossil fuels in total primaryenergy supply from two-thirds today to below 60% in 2030. As a result, LAC makes significant
contributions to global clean energy transitions, accounting for almost 10% of the global
reduction in oil use by 2050 and about 5% of the reduced use of natural gas. Cleaner energy
sources, more stringent environmental policies and better access to clean cooking also help
to reduce air pollution, a major cause of poor health in the region. The new energy economy
that emerges in the APS sets the stage for LAC to tap its abundant renewable energy
resources to produce low-emissions hydrogen for both domestic use and export.

5.3.2

What role for Latin America and the Caribbean in maintaining
traditional oil and gas security through energy transitions?

The global energy crisis has raised energy security questions for many net importing
countries, potentially creating an opportunity for producers and resource-rich countries inthe LAC region to step up their own production and export. This section examines how theseopportunities play out in our scenarios, and also considers some of the commercial andenvironmental risks.
Today the region is already a net crude oil exporter: in the STEPS and APS it is poised to playa growing role in global oil production and trade. In the APS, oil production increases while
oil demand declines up to 2035 in LAC, raising net exports from 0.6 mb/d in 2022 to 2.3 mb/din 2035. The growth is concentrated in Guyana and Brazil. Reliance on export markets makesthese projections highly sensitive to the pace of global transitions, which vary substantiallyacross our scenarios depending on the strength of government policies. Demand in the APS
continues to allow for some new upstream developments if they are competitive on cost andexhibit low-emissions intensities, but new oil and gas fields around the world would face
major commercial risks if global demand follows the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)
Scenario pathway that limits global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Guyana discovered very large oil reserves offshore in 2015 and accounted for more than halfof LAC crude discoveries and 7% of global crude discoveries from 2015 to 2023. In the APS,
Guyana increases oil production by 1.3 mb/d from 2022 to 2035 (Figure 5.5), the largest
increase of any country in this scenario. With a population under 1 million, nearly all of
Guyana’s expanded oil production is available for export. The boost in oil exports generates
more diversity of oil supply even as overall global demand starts to decline. It also provides
an opportunity to support Guyana’s development if a comprehensive governance framework
for the sector is in place (Balza et al., 2020) Guyana quadrupled oil exports from 2020 to2022, with about half of delivered cargoes in 2022 going to the European Union to help
replace Russian oil and a further one-third to Asia.
Brazil accounts for the second-largest increase in oil production in the world to 2035, ataround 1 mb/d. Brazil has been the largest oil producer in LAC since 2016, having overtaken
both Venezuela and Mexico: it continues to hold this position through to 2050 in the APS,
accounting for about 5% of global production from 2030 to 2050. All the additional oil
produced in Brazil is likely to go for export: current key export markets include China,
European Union, India and United States.
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Argentina has the potential to significantly expand its production of natural gas, which would
have the effect of reducing net imports to the LAC region. Higher output in Argentina would
compensate for reduced output in several other producers. Trinidad and Tobago is thesecond-largest natural gas producer in LAC today and a major exporter of LNG, but its 2022
production was 20% below a recent high in 2019, and it falls by another 30% to 2030 in the
APS. Overall, LAC remains a net importer of natural gas in the APS, though the import
volumes declines sharply after 2030, making more than 50 bcm available to other markets.
Figure 5.5 ⊳Oil production in Latin America and the Caribbean relative toglobal production in the APS, 1990-2050
Top-three oil production increases, 2022-35
1.5
For domestic
demandLAC share of global oil production

mb/d

15%

Other
Colombia
Venezuela
Guyana10%

MexicoArgentina

5%1.0

For export

0.5

2030

2050

Guyana2010

Brazil

1990

Qatar

BrazilIEA. CC BY 4.0.

Guyana and Brazil rank as the first two countries in the world in oil production
growth to 2035, with their combined output rising by 2.3 mb/d, mostly for export

5.3.3

Do critical minerals open new avenues for Latin America and the
Caribbean’s natural resources?

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Rising demand for clean energy technologies offers significant scope for LAC to expand
production and export of critical minerals, building on its well-established mining sector andsignificant minerals reserves. In doing so, it could help the global economy avoid the supply
bottlenecks that might threaten clean energy transitions. The region already produces large
quantities of lithium, which is essential for almost all types of EVs and storage batteries
today, and of copper, which underpins the expansion of renewables and electricity networks.
LAC could expand into a range of other materials such as nickel – a key component inbatteries and electrolysers – and the rare earth elements that are required for EV motors
and wind turbines. There are three key opportunities in this respect: scale up production,
including undeveloped resources; improve practices for responsible and sustainable supply;and move from the production of ores to processed products.
LAC accounts for 40% of global production of copper, led by Chile (24%) and Peru (10%).
Copper production started to pick up in 2022 after several flat years. Both countries made a214International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

sizeable contribution to production growth and now have expansion projects underway. A
mega-port is under construction in Peru to facilitate exports. The national mining plan in
Chile includes a copper production target of 7 Mt by 2030, up from 5.7 Mt today, and 9 Mt
by 2050, alongside a doubling in annual investment in greenfield exploration.
LAC supplies 35% of global lithium and holds around half of lithium reserves. It is home tothe so-called “lithium triangle” – a lithium-rich region that spans Argentina, Bolivia and Chile.
Today, Chile accounts for 30% and Argentina for 5% of global lithium production. Bolivia also
has substantial lithium resources: a lack of infrastructure has so far hindered them frombeing economically lucrative, but CATL, a Chinese firm, plans to invest over USD 1 billion in alithium project in Bolivia. So far, lithium mining has been concentrated on the salt flats ofChile, but the Kachi mine is expected to begin operations in Argentina in 2024, and the Grota
do Cirilos mine has just started production in Brazil.

Billion USD (2022)

Figure 5.6 ⊳Revenue from production of selected critical minerals andfossil fuels in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2030 and 2050
NZE

APS

500
400
300
200
100

2022

2030

2050

Minerals
Total minerals
Neodymium
NickelBauxiteGraphite
Zinc
Lithium
CopperFossil fuels
Coal
Natural gas
Oil

2050
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Revenue from critical minerals production expands 1.5-times by 2030 in the APS
and surpasses the level of revenue from fossil fuels by 2050 in both scenarios

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: Revenue is total proceeds from domestic sales and exports. Assumes average 2022 prices for minerals
in 2030 and 2050, and current LAC market share in global minerals production.

Revenue from the production of critical minerals (graphite, bauxite, nickel, zinc, lithium,copper and neodymium) in LAC totalled around USD 100 billion in 2022 (Figure 5.6). Withrising demand for these minerals, LAC revenue from their sales increases 1.5-times by 2030
in the APS. By 2050 in the APS, critical minerals production revenue overtakes that of
combined fossil fuel production in the region, which falls to USD 145 billion as countries
around the world deliver on announced pledges to limit the impacts of climate change. In
the NZE, the revenues from critical minerals production rise further to USD 246 billion by
2050.
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5.4

European Union

5.4.1

Key energy and emissions trends

Figure 5.7 ⊳12Key trends in the European Union, 2010-2050

Oil demand (mb/d)

500

Natural gas demand (bcm)250

6Transport
2010

400

200

Industry

Buildings
2050

2010

2050

2010

Investment (billion USD)
Electricity generation (TWh)
6 000
600

4

3 000

2

300

Solar PV
2010

Clean energy

2050

2010
STEPS

Coal demand (Mtce)

2050

2050

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

Power
2010

2050

APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had profound effects on the energy sector in the European
Union. Vast sums were spent on energy in 2022: the European Union paid over
USD 300 billion for natural gas imports in 2022, a threefold increase compared to the averageof the previous five years. This fed through to much higher end-user prices for both natural
gas and electricity. Even though governments made far-reaching interventions to cushion
the impacts and reduce demand, and the well-integrated EU energy markets helped to
manage supply risks, spending on energy use in buildings, transport and industry in the EU
in 2022 rose above USD 2 trillion, equivalent to 12% of GDP.
In response to the energy crisis, the European Union raised its clean energy ambitions, while
placing energy security at the forefront of its transition plans. This is already visible in the
STEPS: oil and gas demand is projected to come down by 15% by 2030 from 2022 levels, andcoal demand by 55%. Large legislative packages and a raft of national and EU-level incentives,
representing almost USD 500 billion in enacted funding for clean energy investment arereflected in the STEPS; renewables make up two-thirds of electricity generation in 2030, up
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

from 39% in 2022, with wind and solar PV accounting for over 85% of the new capacity built
in this period. In the APS, the more ambitious EU Fit for 55 package targets are largely met,
ensuring that the European Union achieves a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030
relative to 1990 levels, and also meets the REPowerEU goal of eliminating dependence on
Russian natural gas before 2030. This requires a 20% increase in renewables deployment
compared to the STEPS in 2030.
Table 5.5 ⊳Key policy initiatives in the European Union

PolicyDescription

Fit for 55• Implementation framework for the European Green Deal.
• Supported by the Renewable Energy Directive, Energy Efficiency Directive,
EU Emissions Trading System reform and Carbon Border Adjustment
Mechanism.

5• Includes packages for electricity market design, hydrogen anddecarbonised gases, creating harmonised rules for a single energy market.
• 100% CO2 emissions reduction for both new cars and vans from 2035, emissions
standards for heavy-duty vehicles and FuelEU maritime initiative.
• Increases the minimum energy performance standards for existing buildings,
and requires all new buildings to be zero emissions by 2028.
Sustainable recovery• Member states have committed close to USD 500 billion towards a sustainable
recovery through national recovery plans and EU-level packages such as theRecovery and Resilience Facility.

REPowerEU• Sets out a pathway to cut reliance on Russian natural gas via energy savings,
diversification of supply and accelerated roll out of renewable energy.

Net Zero Industry Act • Aims to boost clean energy technology manufacturing, targets technology areas
such as solar and wind, bioenergy, hydrogen, CCUS, battery storage, grids andheat pumps; covers support for alternative fuels and nuclear.
EU Taxonomy• Classification system sets out criteria for investment activities aligned with net
zero emissions goals, using technical screening criteria.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Electrification of the energy economy in the European Union occurs in parallel withdecarbonisation of the power sector. The share of electricity in total final energy
consumption in 2030 is 25% in the STEPS and nearly 30% in the APS, compared with 21% in
2022. EVs account for 55% of electricity demand growth by 2050: in the STEPS, there are 200
million electric cars on the road by 2050 compared with around 6 million today; 85% of thevehicles on the road are electric. In the APS, this share reaches nearly 90%. Demand for heatin the buildings sector is also electrified: more than 330 GW of heat pumps are deployed by2030 in the APS.
Strong support for building retrofits, appliance efficiency standards and fuel switching
incentives remains crucial to complement the electrification of heating in the buildings
sector, given that over 70% of the residential buildings stock in 2050 already stands today.
The energy intensity of the buildings stock improves by about 30% per square metre in the
STEPS by 2050 and almost 50% in the APS.
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5.4.2

Can the European Union deliver on its clean energy and criticalmaterials targets?

The European Union’s clean energy ambitions require a large quantity of raw materials, and
it is currently highly dependent on imports. Like many other regions responding to postCovid-19 pressures on supply chains and the fallout from the global energy crisis, theEuropean Union has sought to promote investment in domestic production as a way toincrease the resilience of energy supply chains. While recognising the benefits of trade andthe importance of international co-operation, the proposed EU Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA)
would require the EU clean manufacturing capacity to reach at least 40% of deployment
needs by 2030, while the proposed European Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) would
require 10% of the EU annual consumption to be extracted in the region, and less than 65%
of its annual consumption of each mineral to have been processed in a third country.
Figure 5.8 ⊳Manufacturing capacity in the European Union as share of APS
deployment levels and global capacity by region, 2030

EU manufacturing capacity
100%

World capacity

APS 2030 deployment

World capacity
Other
Chile
Australia
United States
EuropeChina
EU manufacturing capacity
2030 announced pipeline
2022 production
2030 EU production targets

80%
60%
40%

Lithium

Heat
pumps

Wind

Solar PV

Lithium

Heat
pumps

Wind

Solar PV

20%

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Wind and heat pump project pipelines are in line with EU minimum domestic
manufacturing targets, but most technologies would still rely heavily on imports

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: Country share in world technology manufacturing is estimated based on current project pipeline for2030. Lithium supply mix is based on 2022 extraction data. EU production targets reflect minimum domestic
manufacturing and extraction targets from the Net Zero Industry and the Critical Raw Materials Acts.

Around 10% of the 40 GW of solar PV modules that were added in the European Union in
2022 were manufactured in the region. By 2030, if all planned projects are commissioned ontime and in full, this share would be just over 20% when benchmarked against the
deployments needs of the APS, where solar PV capacity additions reach over 50 GW in 2030
(Figure 5.8). For wind, EU production of nacelles – the generating components on the top of
turbines – came close to matching the 14 GW of capacity added in 2022. The current pipeline
for new wind manufacturing capacity however is much smaller than for PV, and so the218

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

projected near-tripling of wind capacity additions in the APS by 2030 would mean the EU
manufactured share falls just short of 40% by that date. Significant additional investment in
manufacturing capacity in the European Union, particularly solar PV, would be needed tomeet the goals of the NZIA and CRMA. Imports remain crucial in any scenario, with overall
cross-border trade dictated by cost competitiveness and the pipeline of manufacturing
capacity in other parts of the world: current plans suggest that China is likely to retain its
strong position in wind and solar PV manufacturing.
The European Union is better placed to meet increased demand for heat pumps. There isalready enough capacity to meet close to 40% of the heat pump sales that are required in
the APS in 2030, and a sizeable pipeline of additional projects means that aggregate EU
production capacity is roughly equivalent to projected demand in this scenario.
Current lithium extraction capacity in the European Union would meet less than 0.5% of its
needs in 2030. Several new projects have been announced in recent years, including Czech
Republic, Finland, Germany and Portugal. If all announced projects come online as planned,
EU regional extraction capacity could meet 10% of deployment rates in the APS, thereby
delivering on the CRMA target. Nevertheless, most of the lithium that the European Union
requires will still need to be imported. In both its raw and refined forms, global lithiumproduction is highly concentrated, with raw supply dominated by Chile, Australia and China,
and refined lithium produced almost exclusively by China. This suggests a need to strengthen
efforts to form strategic partnerships to develop projects that will diversify supply chains.

5.4.3

What next for the natural gas balance in the European Union?

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union reduced its natural gas
demand by an historic 55 bcm in 2022, equivalent to 13% of total demand in 2021. In the
STEPS, continued efforts to decrease demand yield a further 50 bcm reduction by 2030. In
the APS, acceleration in end-use electrification, efficiency and renewables expansion meansdemand is 60 bcm lower still in 2030 and falls below 30 bcm by 2050.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

This trajectory raises the question of how to satisfy the EU near-term need for additional
natural gas supplies without compromising long-term emissions reduction goals, and what
the appropriate contracting and investment strategies should look like. Currently, the gap
between firm contracted supply and projected import requirements in the STEPS lies in arange between 160 bcm and 180 bcm annually over the projection period. If no further
contracts are signed, this implies a continued high level of reliance on spot markets or shortterm contracts, underpinned primarily by flexible volumes of LNG. This gap also exists in the
APS in the near term, though it narrows sharply after 2030. While these outcomes illustratethat EU gas buyers face a good deal of uncertainty about future requirements, a remaining
gap of 20 bcm in the APS in 2050 suggests there is still space to contract more gas without
falling foul of the European Union net zero emissions by 2050 target (Figure 5.9).
Whether these contracts are at odds with global ambitions to reach net zero emissions isanother matter. The global LNG market looks amply supplied in the second-half of the 2020s,
and no new projects are necessary in the APS or the NZE Scenario, so sourcing additional gas
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from existing projects may be better aligned with near-term security goals and global climate
ambitions than signing contracts supporting new long lead time projects. EU gas buyers could
contract for flexible supply on a long-term basis and redirect it elsewhere if it is not needed,
but this would increase their risk exposure if global demand for gas fell in line with a rapidtransition to clean energy along the lines of the NZE Scenario. Buyers might instead be
comfortable with a high reliance on spot markets; the crisis has revealed Europe’s willingness
to pay a premium for LNG and the market’s ability to respond by sourcing the supplies
necessary to fill storage and meet demand. However, this strategy could have knock-on
impacts on other importing countries, damaging their security of supply and risking increased
use of coal as a fallback option.

bcm

Figure 5.9 ⊳400

Drivers of natural gas demand reduction and import needs
by scenario in the European Union
Demand reductions

Import needs

APS 2030

2022 2030 2050

300
200
100

2022

APS 2050

Demand reductions
Other
Bioenergy
Electrification
Building efficiency
Renewables
STEPS
Import needs
Spot/flexible supply
STEPS
APS
Existing contracts:
LNG
Non-Russian pipeline
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The EU’s natural gas contract balance is determined by the pace and scale of demand

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

reductions and the willingness of EU buyers to rely on global spot markets

The question of whether the scramble to build new LNG import terminals and reinforce
pipeline links in Europe ends up locking in emissions is also an important one. Investment
costs for such infrastructure are relatively modest by comparison with those involved indeveloping export infrastructure, and import terminals and pipeline links do not necessarily
require high rates of utilisation over a long period of time. Where import takes the form offloating storage and regasification units, it is also relatively flexible and can be moved as
demand for natural gas evolves. In the STEPS, cumulative spending on LNG import capacity
between 2022 and 2030 is USD 55 billion, and this rises to USD 70 billion in the APS. A figurein the range of USD 55-70 billion represents around 0.3% of total EU spending on energy overthis period, and arguably provides important energy security benefits over the transition
period. There is also the possibility that some gas infrastructure could be repurposed in the
future to transport hydrogen.
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5.5

Africa5.5.1

Key energy and emissions trends

Figure 5.10 ⊳ Key trends in Africa, 2010-2050
10

Oil demand (mb/d)

300

Natural gas demand (bcm)

150

5

Industry

2050

2010

2050

Power
2010

Investment (billion USD)

Electricity generation (TWh)
4 000

300

2

2 000

150

1

Solar PV
2010

Clean energy

2050

2010
STEPS

Coal demand (Mtce)

100

Buildings
2010

200

2050

2050

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

Transport
2010

2050

APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent energy crisis contributed to an emerging debt crisis
in Africa and a worsening economic outlook. One consequence is that energy investment is
set to remain low in the STEPS, contributing to slow progress in extending access to electricity
and clean cooking in sub-Saharan Africa (Figure 5.10). Today, more than 40% of people living
in Africa lack access to electricity and 70% lack access to clean cooking. Africa will be home
to one-fifth of the world’s population by 2030 and providing access to modern energy for all
while keeping pace with rising energy demand remains a primary focus for African
governments (IEA, 2022a).
Recent policy efforts have focussed on reversing flagging investment with support frommultilateral development banks and development finance institutions (IEA, 2023a). Climate
commitments among international lenders have made renewable power projects easier tofinance than most others, and renewables account for half of all capacity additions since thepandemic. With solar leading the way, renewables are set to contribute over 80% of new
power generation capacity to 2030 in the STEPS, a figure which rises to around 85% in the
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APS. Natural gas power plants make up most of the balance outside of South Africa: in
addition to providing power, they help shore up grid stability and provide scope for theoperation of regional power pools such as the West African Power Pool. In the APS, newnatural gas power still comes online in sub-Saharan Africa, however, North Africa sees limited
growth to 2030, relying largely on renewables to meet incremental energy demandconsistent with long-term climate pledges.
In South Africa, representing 27% of current electricity demand in Africa, load-shedding has
intensified as a result of unplanned outages at numerous coal plants, prompting a substantial
uptick in renewables investment in the STEPS, even though other aspects of the South
African Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) remain undecided. Despite supply
shortages, no new coal-fired power plants are started in the STEPS, consistent withinternational commitments to end investment in new coal plants. By 2030, the share of lowemissions electricity generation reaches over 40% in the STEPS in South Africa, rising from
12% today. This rises further to over half in the APS.
Table 5.6 ⊳Key policy initiatives in Africa

PolicyDescription

Just Energy Transition
Partnerships• Senegal and South Africa JETP accelerate renewables in the power sector.
Implementation details are pending.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Regulation of imported • 28 countries have implemented restrictions on the import of used light-duty
second-hand light-duty
vehicles with emissions standards of Euro 3 or higher and set an age limit ofvehicleseight years or less (UNEP, 2021).
Clean cooking accesspolicies• 8 African countries have official targets to achieve universal access to clean
cooking by 2030; 23 countries have set less ambitious targets.

Electricity accesspolicies• 22 African countries have set official national targets to achieve universal
access by or before 2030; 19 countries have set less ambitious targets.

Net zero emissions
targets• 15 Africa countries had stated net zero emissions targets in 2023.

Africa’s growing energy needs will mean a degree of reliance on fossil fuels for some time
before a full transition takes place to clean energy technologies. These fossil fuels include oilfor transport, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cooking and natural gas for industry. In the
STEPS, an expanding vehicle fleet increases road transport demand for oil by 15% in 2030.
Except for two/three-wheelers, vehicle electrification makes little progress by 2030,
hindered by high upfront costs and unreliable grids. In the APS, the market share of electriccars reaches 5% by 2030, with age limits on imported vehicles starting to bring second-handelectric cars into the market. LPG demand rises slowly in the absence of well-funded clean
cooking policies: it would need to increase twofold, and threefold in sub-Saharan Africa to
be consistent with universal access to clean cooking by 2030. Africa’s industries use a rangeof fuels but rely in particular on the use of natural gas, especially for fertiliser production,water desalination, plus the steel and cement industries.
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While demand for oil and gas in Africa continues to climb, prospects for new oil and gas
projects are changing due to global trends, which carries implications for current and future
producers. Africa currently produces 7 mb/d of crude oil, of which around 40% is exported.
Oil production is projected to decline, with limited new oil discoveries coming online that will
not outpace declines from producing fields. Africa becomes a net importer of oil in the mid2030s in the STEPS. In the APS, oil production is 0.5 mb/d lower than in STEPS by 2030. Many
African countries rely on imports of refined products, although a new 650 000 barrels per
day refinery in Nigeria helps meet incremental oil product demand growth in the next
decade.
Prospects for new natural gas developments fare better. In the STEPS, natural gas production
reaches 280 bcm by 2030, from a level around 260 bcm today. Large discoveries have been
made across the continent over the last decade, and many African countries are looking todevelop these resources, both for export and domestic use. Net income from oil and gas
production averages USD 140 billion each year in the STEPS between 2022 and 2030, whichfalls to 130 billion in the APS.
The decline in oil and gas export revenues in the APS could be problematic for a number ofcurrent and prospective producer economies, but clean energy technologies and the criticalminerals on which they depend hold great promise for Africa, and some countries are well
positioned to become future producers. Today Africa accounts for 13% of global copper andbattery metals revenue, and this could rise: a number of countries have expressed interestin attracting international investment to develop and process their resources.

5.5.2

Recharging progress towards universal energy access

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The Covid-19 pandemic, the energy crisis, debt problems and political instability have nearly
eliminated progress in Africa on reducing the number of people without access to electricity
since its peak in 2013. Today there are around 600 million people without access toelectricity in Africa (Figure 5.11), and they constitute around 80% of the global population
without access. Although preliminary data suggest that the number of people without accessin Africa might stabilise in 2023 after three years of increases, efforts need to scale up quickly
to reach global access goals. The STEPS sees leading countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya,
Ghana and Senegal reach or get very close to their targets, but the number of those without
electricity access continue to rise in many others. While utility debts and supply chain
constraints have slowed grid electricity access investment, solar home systems sales rose torecord levels in 2022 and contributed to half of the increase of people with access in subSaharan Africa in 2022. Solar home systems now provide access to electricity to more than
8% of households in sub-Saharan Africa that have access, and they are set to play anincreasingly important role this decade in providing first-time access to households in Africa.
The number of people without access to clean cooking in Africa reached almost 990 million
in 2022. It is still rising, and many African countries are not on course to achieve universal
access to clean cooking even by 2050. Reaching universal access to clean cooking by 2030 in
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line with Sustainable Development Goal 7 requires the rapid scaling up of all clean cooking
technologies. As a feasible, low cost technology, LPG is set to play a leading role: it provides
clean cooking to 40% of those gaining access. Electric cooking also has an important role: it
provides access to 12% of homes in sub-Saharan Africa and has the additional benefit of not
requiring fuel imports (IEA, 2023b). Between now and 2030, improved biomass cookstovesprovide clean cooking to more than one-third of those gaining access, mainly in rural areas.
For many, however, this is a transitional step before they gain access to clean cooking at alater date through LPG, electricity, biodigesters or ethanol cookstoves. Switching to any clean
cooking solution in sub-Saharan Africa reduces GHG emissions, even after taking account of
increased CO2 emissions from fossil fuel consumption, and this makes clean cooking a prime
candidate for climate finance.
Figure 5.11 ⊳ Population in Africa without access to electricity in the STEPS

and gains by technology type to reach universal access by 2030

Million people

Population without access in the STEPS
600

North Africa
South Africa
Other Africa
Kenya
Sudan
UgandaTanzania
Ethiopia
Nigeria
DRC

400

200

2000

2010

2020

People gaining universal access to 2030
(90 million people per year)

Mini-grid
30%

Grid
43%

Stand-alone
27%

2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Some countries reach near universal electricity access this decade, while others see
no progress; off-grid systems play an important role to provide universal access
Note: DRC = Democratic Republic of the Congo.

5.5.3

What can be done to enhance energy investment in Africa?

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Meeting Africa’s rising energy demand, providing universal access to modern energy by 2030
and achieving energy and climate goals means more than doubling energy investment thisdecade. This requires over USD 200 billion per year from 2026 to 2030, with two-thirds going
to clean energy (Figure 5.12). Bringing access to electricity and clean cooking for all Africans
requires investment of USD 25 billion per year – a relatively small part of the total – andequivalent to just 1% of current global energy investment.

224

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Energy investment in Africa, however, has fallen by almost 45% from highs in 2014 largely asa result of a slowdown in oil and gas investment. While export-oriented oil and gas projects
are able to attract commercial financing, there are fewer bankable clean energy projects,
and those that are put forward struggle to secure financing. Potential investors are often
concerned by risks stemming from relatively weak regulatory environments or the poor
financial health of utilities. These risks can reduce the commercial viability of projects,
particularly in countries with nascent clean energy sectors. They can also push up the cost of
borrowing to at least two- to three-times the level in advanced economies for similar projects(IEA, 2023c).
As a result, many projects in Africa require concessional support either to act as ademonstration project or to facilitate the mobilisation of private capital. By the end of thedecade, concessional finance to mobilise private capital needs to reach around USD 28 billion
per year if all energy and climate goals in Africa are to be achieved. This total would be higher
in the NZE Scenario. The limited availability of domestic public financing means that
additional grant and concessional support are also necessary to support non-commercial
activities such as early-stage financing and the development of early-stage technologies. The
communique issued by African governments at the Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi in
September 2023 called for advanced economies to meet their climate finance commitments
and for reform of the multilateral finance system to address the lack of energy investment
on the continent today.
Figure 5.12 ⊳ Investment needs to meet Africa’s sustainable goals by 2030
Billion USD (2022, MER)

Annual average investment by sector

250

Other
Efficiency
Access*Grids
Renewables
Fossil fuels

200
150

Clean energy investment by provider,2026-30 (155 billion USD)

Public30%

100

Private52%

50

2016-202026-30

Concessional tomobilise private
18%
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Energy investment needs to double to achieve energy and climate goals, withconcessional capital reaching USD 28 billion each year by the end of this decade

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

* Access includes investment related to fossil fuel sources.
Note: MER = market exchange rate; Other = low-emissions fuels, nuclear, battery storage, fossil fuel powerwith CCUS, and non-efficiency investment in the buildings, industry and transport sectors.

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5.6

Middle East

5.6.1

Key energy and emissions trends

Figure 5.13 ⊳ Key trends in the Middle East, 2010-2050
12

Oil demand (mb/d)

1 000

Natural gas demand (bcm)

500

6Transport
2010

Industry

Buildings
2050

2010

2050

150

2 000

Solar PV
2010
STEPS

2010

3.0

2050

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

1.5

Clean energy

2050

Coal demand (Mtce)

6

Electricity generation (TWh)Investment (billion USD)
300
4 000

2010

12

2050

Power
2010

2050

APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Among emerging market and developing economies, the Middle East collectively is at theupper end of income and energy consumption levels, although there is a wide degree ofvariation among countries within the region. As a group, GDP per capita in the Middle East
region is 80% higher than in emerging market and developing economies on average, whileenergy demand per capita is over twice as high. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and theUnited Arab Emirates are at the higher end of per capita incomes and energy consumption,
while others such as Yemen and Syria are at the lower end.
The GDP growth rate of 6.6% in 2022 in the Middle East was nearly twice as high as theaverage for emerging market and developing economies as a whole. Saudi Arabia, the largest
economy in this region, grew nearly 9% in 2022. Regional GDP is on track to increase by nearly
30% by the end of the decade and about 2.4-times the current levels by 2050, leading toenergy demand growth in the STEPS of more than 15% by 2030 and 50% by 2050. The region
would have the second-largest oil demand growth and the largest natural gas demand
growth of any region, together with 30% increase in annual CO2 emissions by 2050.
226

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Natural gas and oil made up 94% of the regional electricity mix in 2022. In the STEPS, power
generation from natural gas increases, but the overall share of oil and gas neverthelessdecreases to just over 60% by mid-century as a result of an over twenty-fold rise ingeneration by renewables, led by solar PV. By 2030, solar power generation rises ninefold in
the STEPS, and its share of generation rises from 1% today to nearly 10%.
Natural gas and oil also make up the bulk of current energy investment spending in the
Middle East region, with clean energy investment accounting for just 15% of total
investment. In the STEPS, clean energy investment increases fourfold to over USD 90 billion
by 2050, by which time it represents over a third of the total. This falls short of the trajectory
implied by the region’s decarbonisation goals, including national net zero emissionscommitments. In the APS, which assumes that all these commitments are met, clean energy
investment increases fourfold to reach nearly USD 80 billion by 2030, taking the share ofclean energy investment to nearly half of the total. In power generation, this investment
leads to renewables accounting for a sharply rising share of generation, 15% of the electricity
generation by 2030 and a two-thirds share by 2050, with solar PV alone responsible for nearly
half of all the electricity generated by 2050. In transport, sales of electric cars in total car
sales increase to 13% by 2030 in the APS, compared with 5% in the STEPS.
In the APS, oil and gas demand in the region remains flat, but CO2 emissions nevertheless fallby 12% from current levels by 2050 as a result of energy efficiency improvements and a larger
share of oil being used for chemical feedstocks and therefore not being combusted. The
decline in CO2 emissions in the region is much less than that for the emerging market anddeveloping economies as a whole, where it falls by nearly 60% in the APS by 2050; thedifference reflects a relatively slower uptake of clean energy in the Middle East.
Table 5.7 ⊳Key policy initiatives in the Middle East

PolicyDescription

Net zero ambitions• Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait have announced goals to reach net
zero emissions by 2060, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman
target 2050.

Petroleum subsidies• Some countries in the region such as Kuwait announced plans in 2023 toextend existing petroleum subsidies to shield consumers from higher
prices. Kuwait budgeted Kuwaiti dinar 1.159 billion (USD 3.8 billion) in
petroleum product subsidies for 2023.

Hydrogen ambitions
and partnerships• In 2023, six low-emissions hydrogen electrolysis projects wereannounced in Oman following a Royal Decree defining the scope of suchhydrogen projects.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• United Arab Emirates 2021 Hydrogen Leadership Roadmap includes atarget of acquiring a 25% market share in low-emissions hydrogen by2030 in the key export markets of Europe, India, Japan and Korea. Saudi
Arabia is investing in new low-emissions hydrogen projects including via
the NEOM Green Hydrogen Company.
UAE’s updated Nationally
Determined Contribution• United Arab Emirates has set a 19% emissions reduction target for 2030
relative to 2019 levels.

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5.6.2

Shifting fortunes for energy exports

The Middle East has five of the world’s top-ten oil producers – Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United ArabEmirates, Iran and Kuwait. In 2022, the Middle East produced 31 mb/d of oil, of which nearly
three-quarters was exported, accounting for over four-in-ten barrels of global oil exports.
The region is also a major producer of natural gas with three of the world’s top-ten
producers. Around 85% of gas production is used within the region, while only 26% in thecase of oil, which accounts for the vast majority of energy export earnings. In the STEPS, theshare of the Middle East in global oil production increases steadily, and this is reflected inhigher export earnings by mid-century. These exports are increasingly directed to Asia: theroute between the Middle East and Asia already accounts for around 40% of total seaborne
crude oil trade, and in the STEPS this rises to 50% by 2050.
Figure 5.14 ⊳ Revenue from energy exports by fuel and scenario, and
1 000

Energy export revenue

10%

EJ

Billion USD (2022, MER)

hydrogen production by source and scenario in the Middle East
5

800

8%

4

600

6%

3

400

4%

2

200

2%

1

2030 2050 2030 2050
STEPS
APS
Oil Natural gas Hydrogen and H₂-based fuels
Hydrogen share of energy exports (right axis)
2022

Hydrogen production

2022

2030 2050 2030 2050
APS
STEPS
Natural gas
Natural gas with CCUS
Electrolysis of water
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Despite strong growth of hydrogen production in the Middle East, revenues from theirexports do not offset the decline in oil and gas export revenues in the APS even by 2050
Note: H2 = hydrogen; MER = market exchange rate.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Strengthened climate commitments by countries around the world imply marked changes inrevenue streams from oil and gas in the Middle East. Shrinking global oil demand in the APS
substantially reduces export demand, resulting in a reduction of more than USD 80 billion inenergy export revenues by 2030 and over USD 300 billion by 2050, which is equivalent to lessthan half of today’s levels (Figure 5.14). To compensate, several countries in the region are
actively pursuing diversification strategies that aim to open new industrial and export
opportunities such as hydrogen production.

228

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

The Middle East has significant potential for the production of low-emissions fuels, and thisis an important pillar in many transition strategies. Oman, for example, aims to produce atleast 1 million tonnes (Mt) of low-emissions hydrogen a year by 2030 and almost 4 Mt by
2040. The 2040 hydrogen target would represent 80% of Oman’s current LNG exports inenergy-equivalent terms. In the APS, the share of hydrogen in the region’s energy exports
grows larger still. The revenue stream from hydrogen trade, however, is not sufficient tomake up for declining oil and gas revenues. The larger prize is the potential to attract
investment in higher value-added industrial sectors, based on the region’s large potential for
low-cost renewables and for storing CO2.

5.6.3

How is the desalination sector changing in times of increasingwater needs and the energy transition?

The Middle East has one of the lowest levels of fresh water on a per capita basis in the world:
climate change is likely to impose further constraints on water supply in the future. With agrowing population and easy access to sea water, desalination is increasingly being used totackle water scarcity. Some 21 000 seawater desalination plants are currently in operationworldwide, and the Middle East accounts for 50% of the installed capacity (IFRI, 2022).
Moreover, multiple large projects are underway that will increase desalination capacity inthe region: Jordan is planning a major plant on the Gulf of Aqaba that will increase its
desalination capacity from 4 billion to 350 billion litres each year; Saudi Arabia plans toconstruct a new city with 9 million people in the northwest by 2045 which will depend ondesalinated water from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aqaba (Al-Masri and Chenoweth, 2023).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Plans to invest in low-emissions hydrogen production will add to water demand. Productionplans in Oman are based on producing hydrogen from desalinated sea water, for example(IEA, 2023d). Typically, between 30 and 60 litres of purified water are needed to produce
1 kilogramme (kg) of hydrogen from electrolysis, including feedstock water and processwater for cooling. However, while electrolytic hydrogen production would increase water
demand, a reduction in fossil fuel production could decrease water consumption for oil andgas extraction and processing.
Desalination is also highly energy intensive. The main energy-related needs for desalinatedwater are for cooling thermal plants and for upstream oil and gas operations. The 1.5 EJ
currently consumed every year for municipal desalination in the Middle East is equivalent toa third of the energy needs of the region’s massive chemical sector, and accounts for 6% of
the total energy consumption in the Middle East (Figure 5.15). Although membrane
technologies such as reverse osmosis that use electricity are the most common desalination
technologies installed worldwide, the Middle East is an exception: the low cost of oil and gas
and the prevalence of co-generation facilities for power and water mean the region relies
heavily on fossil fuel-based thermal desalination such as multi-stage flash or multiple-effectdesalination. Today, two-thirds of the water produced from seawater desalination in theregion is from fossil fuel-based thermal desalination, and much of the membrane-based
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desalination uses electricity produced with natural gas. Overall, the Middle East accounts forroughly 90% of the thermal energy used for desalination worldwide, led by the United ArabEmirates and Saudi Arabia.
Figure 5.15 ⊳ Energy demand for municipal desalination for
EJhydrogen production in the Middle East
STEPS

8

APS

20%

6

15%

4

10%

2

5%

2022

2030 2050

Solar thermal
Electricity
Natural gas
Oil
Share in TFC (right axis)

2030 2050
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Announced pledges affect the energy mix of desalination only marginally, but a clean
technology shift is needed as hydrogen production boosts rising water demand
Note: TFC = total final consumption.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In the STEPS, growing desalination demand pushes the share of desalination in total energy
consumption to 10% in 2030 and 15% in 2050. Although the share of membrane-baseddesalination using electricity expands to almost 20% by 2030, demand for fossil fuels fordesalination still rises by 70% to 2.3 EJ. In the APS, a smaller temperature increase translates
into reduced demand for water, and as a result energy demand for desalination is 6% lower
in 2030 than in the STEPS. However, there is still considerable scope to move further towards
a more efficient and cleaner membrane-based desalination and to make more use ofconcentrating solar power to meet rising water needs. There are also other ways of reducing
demand for water. There is considerable potential to minimise the water required inhydrogen production by optimising the electrolysis cooling process. Pricing has a role to play
too: consistent under-pricing of both water and energy has encouraged the inefficient use ofwater and contributed to unsustainable levels of withdrawals from non-renewablegroundwater resources. Policies that explicitly encourage the conservation of water could
temper the growth for desalination demand further. In the APS, these shifts reduce CO2
emissions from desalination in 2030 by almost 15 Mt compared with the STEPS.

230

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

5.7

Eurasia

5.7.1

Key energy and emissions trends

Figure 5.16 ⊳ Key trends in Eurasia, 2010-2050
5.0

Oil demand (mb/d)

700

Natural gas demand (bcm)

350

2.5

Transport
2010

2050

2010

Electricity generation (TWh)
200

1 100

100

Industry
2050

Investment (billion USD)

Solar PV
2010
STEPS

2010

3.0

2050

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

1.5

Clean energy

2050

Coal demand (Mtce)

150

Buildings

2 200

2010

300

2050

Power
2010

2050

APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The countries of the Caspian region and Russia (referred to here as Eurasia) are facing
multiple pressures on their energy sectors, intensified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Traditional energy relationships have been fractured or, in some cases, have broken down
completely. Russia is pivoting to new markets in Asia, but lacks infrastructure to reach them.
Starting points vary, but the region as a whole has yet to deploy clean energy at scale. At
175 gigajoules (GJ) of total energy supplied per person, per capita energy consumption in
Eurasia is high compared to the global average of about 80 GJ per person, and the averageof other emerging market and developing economies at 60 GJ per person. This level of energy
consumption in part reflects cold winters, but it also stems from widespread inefficiencies inenergy supply and use.
GDP per capita in Eurasia is around 30% higher than the global average. The region is highly
dependent on industry, which accounts for nearly 40% of its GDP. The power sector is thebiggest energy consumer, accounting for 44% of total energy demand; buildings and industry
make up around a quarter of total energy demand each. The region is heavily reliant on fossil
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fuels, which accounted for 90% of total energy supply in 2022. This share is projected to
decline slowly over time as deployment of renewables accelerates and additional nuclear
power plants are commissioned: by 2050, it comes down to about 85% in the STEPS and 75%
in the APS. The relatively high proportion of fossil fuel use in 2050 in both scenarios and therelatively small difference between the two scenario outcomes are a reflection of the
weakness of the region’s stated climate ambitions in the energy sector.
In the STEPS, natural gas demand across Eurasia stays almost unchanged until 2050 at around
640 bcm. Small reductions in natural gas use in power generation are offset by increases inother end-use sectors, notably in industry. Oil consumption rises by 8% to reach 4.7 mb/d by
mid-century. The only fossil fuel that sees a large decline in the STEPS is coal, which drops bya third to 165 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2050. In the APS, natural gas use
sees a reduction of one-quarter by 2050, mostly owing to lower gas use in the power andbuildings sectors. Oil demand declines by 8% over the same period as the buildings sector
reduces oil use by a third and the power sector by nearly 75%. Coal demand declines by 50%
as coal use in the power sector is cut by more than half and consumption in industry dropsby nearly a third.
Electricity consumption is projected to increase by around 45% in the STEPS, rising fromabout 1 050 TWh today to more than 1 500 TWh by 2050. It climbs slightly higher in the APS
as a result of increased electrification of end-uses in that scenario. The share of lowemissions sources in the electricity mix increases relatively slowly from 34% in 2022 to nearly
45% by 2050 in the STEPS and nearly 60% in the APS. The difference between the outcomesin these scenarios reflects a more rapid deployment of wind and solar PV in the APS, whichsees these two technologies together provide about 20% of electricity by 2050.
Table 5.8 ⊳Key policy initiatives in Eurasia

PolicyDescription

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Kazakhstan: National • Accelerate the abatement of GHG emissions through the development of a
Methane Emissions
National Methane Emissions Inventory and Reduction Programme.
Inventory and• European Bank for Reconstruction and Development will assist theReduction Programme
government to join the Global Methane Pledge, which aims to reduce global
methane emissions by 30% by 2030.
Azerbaijan andEuropean Union
memorandum of
understanding toincrease energy
co-operation• Contains a commitment to double the capacity of the Southern Corridor gas
pipeline to the European Union to over 20 bcm a year by 2027.

Russia: Strategy ofsocio-economic
development• Reduce GHG by 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 level, with a strong reliance on
negative emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry.

Kazakhstan: Strategy
on Achieving Carbon
Neutrality by 2060

• Goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

232• European Union to support reduction in methane flaring and venting, as wellas Azerbaijan’s accession to the Global Methane Pledge.

• Achieve net zero GHG emissions by 2060.
• Identifies key sectors and technologies needed to achieve decarbonisation.

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Energy-related CO2 emissions in Eurasia amounted to nearly 2.4 Gt in 2022. In the STEPS,
clean energy investment more than doubles between 2022 and 2050. Annual emissions are
set to decline slightly by 2050, with the majority of the reduction taking place before 2030.
In the APS, clean energy investment more than triple, accounting for over 60% of total energy
investment by 2050. CO2 emissions fall by nearly a third to 1.6 Gt CO2 by 2050. Cutting CO2
emissions is not the only imperative: reducing methane emissions from the regional oil andgas infrastructure is also a key challenge, and one that is the focus of several policy initiatives.

5.7.2

What’s next for oil and gas exports from Eurasia?

RussiaRussia has continued to export large volumes of oil since its invasion of Ukraine, but the castof buyers has changed. Exports that previously went to the European Union and North
America have mostly been redirected to other markets, notably India and China. In our
scenarios, Russian attempts to pivot to Asia and other non-European markets are hampered
in future years by the global peak in oil and gas demand and the long-term effects ofsanctions, which are felt mainly in parts of Russian oil and gas industry that could benefit
most from Western equipment or specialisation. In the case of oil, exports fall by 1 mb/d to2030 in the STEPS and 2 mb/d in the APS. In the case of natural gas, overall Russian exports
in the STEPS are 40% below pre-invasion levels by 2030. Pipeline exports to Europe fell bynearly half in 2022; a gradual ramp up of deliveries to China through the Power of Siberia
and Eastern routes is not enough to make up for the lost volumes, and in our scenarios there
is no need for additional pipeline links between Russia and China, given the trajectory of
demand in China. Russia may look to LNG to diversify its supply options, but that is a very
crowded field: around 250 bcm of new projects are under construction, all targeting start-up
between 2025 and 2030. Russia’s share of internationally traded gas, which stood at 30% in
2021, falls to 15% by 2030 in the STEPS and APS. Net income from gas sales falls from around
USD 100 billion in 2021 to less than USD 40 billion in 2030 in all scenarios.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Caspian
The Caspian region is rich in oil and natural gas resources, but for a long time has faced
challenges over how best to transport them to export markets. This traditional challenge has
been resolved, at least in part, with new infrastructure projects linking Azerbaijan, and tosome extent Kazakhstan, to European markets, and Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to markets
in China. In 2022, the Caspian region as a whole exported 2 mb/d of crude oil and oil products
and 70 bcm of natural gas; China has been the major growth market, accounting for 40% of
total exports in 2022 compared with 30% in 2012. But the prospects for further growth, inall directions, are clouded by complex energy relationships with Russia and by the challenging
commercial case for pipeline projects at a time when the pace of global energy transitions is
picking up. Some parts of the energy infrastructure in the Caspian are also in need ofmodernisation and repair, and there are supply chokepoints in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistanthat undermine domestic energy security and make exports difficult.
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The projected peak in global oil and gas demand before 2030 in the STEPS raises questions
about the viability of plans to monetise a larger share of the Caspian’s untapped oil and gas
resources in the future. There is some potential for an increase in oil and gas exports to China,
but this is moderated by stagnating demand in China beyond 2030 in both scenarios. There
likewise is some modest potential for further westward Azerbaijani exports as Europe looks
to replace gas previously imported from Russia. Looking further ahead, however, Europe’s
limited need for gas is not well-matched with the long lead times and significant upfront
investment involved in developing new upstream resources and matching large-scale gas
pipelines. A growing and dynamic global LNG market appears well-placed to satisfy
incremental demand growth in both Asia and Europe, and Russian cuts to its pipelinedeliveries to Europe appear to have reinforced importer preferences for the flexibility thatcomes with seaborne trade over the rigid politics of pipelines.
There has also been much discussion about other potential market-expanding infrastructure,such as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, or the Trans-Caspian Gas
Pipeline Project linking Turkmen and Azeri gas fields. However, these are hindered by thecomplex web of geopolitical and economic interests that need to be reconciled to secure thepermits and the capital necessary to greenlight projects. And Russia looms large in the
background, making use of its substantial infrastructure connections in the region to further
its own political and economic interests.

mboe/dFigure 5.17 ⊳ Caspian crude oil and natural gas exports in the STEPS and APS
APS

STEPS

4

To Europe
Natural gas
Crude oil
To China
Natural gas
Crude oil
Other
Natural gas
Crude oil

3
2
1

2012

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Caspian oil and gas exports to Europe decline and China is the main source of growthin the STEPS; total exports decline by 45% by 2050 in the APS

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: mboe/d = million barrels of oil equivalent per day, 1 mboe/d = 60 billion cubic metres.

In the STEPS, Caspian oil and gas exports climb to about 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per
day (mboe/d) over the period to 2030 in response to robust oil and gas demand in China.
234International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Declining crude exports to Europe after 2030 offset marginal eastward growth, resulting in aslight contraction in total exports by 2050. In the APS, meeting the climate ambitions
announced by countries around the world reduces the need for around 0.9 mb/d of new
upstream oil projects and around 80 bcm of new gas projects, compared with the STEPS, andthis lowers the level of oil and gas exports by nearly half in 2050. Lower export volumes in
the APS are accompanied by lower oil and gas prices, with the result that net income fromexports in 2050 fall to less than USD 30 billion, around half the level of the STEPS.
The environmental performance of Caspian oil and gas supply is another factor weighing on
its future prospects. Ageing infrastructure and relatively poor maintenance at production
sites at present are causing high levels of loss, and satellites are detecting particularly large
methane leaks from Turkmenistan. Partly as a result of these losses, the emissions intensityof a barrel of oil in the Caspian is estimated at around 150 kilogrammes of carbon dioxide
per barrel of oil equivalent (kg CO2/boe); for natural gas it is around 120 kg CO2/boe. Thisputs the region 40% higher than the global average intensity for oil and nearly double fornatural gas, leaving it at a disadvantage in a world increasingly concerned about theemissions associated with oil and gas supply (Figure 5.18).
Figure 5.18 ⊳ Flaring and methane intensity of oil and gas production
Flaring intensity (kg CO₂-eq/boe)in selected Caspian countries, 2022

5World intensity

4

Turkmenistan

3

Kazakhstan

2

Uzbekistan

1
Azerbaijan
050

Oil and gas production

100

150
1 mboe/d

200
250
300
Methane intensity (kg CO₂-eq/boe)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Caspian oil and gas production is much more emissions-intensive than the global average,
primarily due to a high level of methane venting in upstream operations

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: kg CO2-eq/boe = kilogrammes of carbon dioxide equivalent per barrel of oil equivalent; mboe/d =million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Bubble size indicates oil and gas production in 2022 in mboe/d.

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5.8

China

5.8.1

Key energy and emissions trends

Figure 5.19 ⊳ Key trends in China, 2010-2050
20

Oil demand (mb/d)

600

Natural gas demand (bcm)

300

10

Transport
2010

Buildings
2050

2010

2050

500

9 000

Solar PV
2010
STEPS

Industry
2010

14

2050

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

7

Clean energy

2050

Coal demand (Mtce)

2 000

Electricity generation (TWh)Investment (billion USD)
1 000
18 000

2010

4 000

2050

Power
2010

2050

APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

China has shaped trends across many parts of the energy sector in recent years. Its influence
remains strong in all our scenarios but evolves in line with structural changes in its economy
and energy system (see Chapter 1, section 1.2). As things stand, China is by far the largest
producer and consumer of coal, and a major consumer of oil and gas, which makes it theworld’s largest CO2 emitter, accounting for one-third of the global total. Its total CO2
emissions were 12.1 Gt in 2022, the bulk of which stemmed from the use of coal in electricity
generation and industry. But China is also the largest user in the world of many clean energy
technologies, accounting in 2022 for 60% of global sales of electric cars, 50% of wind capacity
additions, 45% of global solar PV capacity additions and 30% of nuclear capacity additions.
Electric cars have already achieved a 29% market share, and clean energy is advancing soquickly that China is on track to exceed its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)
target of 1 200 GW of solar and wind capacity five years ahead of schedule.
China also dominates many aspects of clean energy technology supply chains. In technology
manufacturing, it is currently the largest producer of solar PV, wind, batteries, heat pumps
and electrolysers for hydrogen production, with plans for further scale up (IEA, 2023e). It also236International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

produces more aluminium and steel than any other country, and leads the world in theprocessing of cobalt, lithium, copper, graphite and rare earths. Mining of critical minerals is
one of the few areas where it does not lead in clean technology supply chains (IEA, 2023f).
China’s 14th Five-year Plan sets the course for its energy sector to 2025, and envisages
continued scaling up of clean energy (Table 5.9). In the STEPS, China’s total CO2 emissions
peak around 2025 and then decline at a pace of about 2.3% per year to 2050, falling to 7 Gt
(Figure 5.19). Despite this, China remains the largest emitter in the world in 2050. But it also
remains the leader in deployment of several clean energy technologies on the back of
average investment in clean energy technologies of well over USD 650 billion per year, andby 2050 it accounts for half of global solar PV capacity, 40% of wind capacity, one-third of all
nuclear power capacity and 40% of the global electric car fleet. In addition, China is set to bea leader in electrolytic hydrogen production and heat pump manufacturing.
Table 5.9 ⊳Key policy initiatives in China

PolicyDescription

Updated Nationally
Determined Contribution• Aims to peak CO2 emissions before 2030; carbon neutrality before 2060.
• Lower CO2 intensity of GDP by 60% by 2030 from 2005 levels.
• Reach 1 200 GW of installed solar and wind capacity by 2030.

14th Five-year Plan for
Energy• Reduce CO2 intensity of GDP by 18% by 2025 relative to 2020.
• Reduce energy intensity of GDP by 13.5% by 2025 relative to 2020.
• 20% non‐fossil fuel share of energy mix by 2025, and 25% by 2030.

14th Five-year Plan for
Renewables• Targets 3 300 TWh of renewables electricity generation by 2025.
• Over 50% of electricity consumption growth by 2025 met by renewables.

14th Five-year Plan for
Buildings• Efficiency retrofits for 350 million square metres (m2) of existing buildings
and 50 million m2 of near-zero-energy buildings constructed by 2025.
• Solar PV capacity of 50 GW by 2025 in new buildings.
• Geothermal energy for more than 100 million m2 of buildings by 2025.

Made in China 2025

• Supports innovation capability, digitalisation and greening manufacturing.
• Raising domestic share of core components and materials to 70% by 2025.

New Energy Vehicle• Promotes widespread adoption of new energy and clean energy vehicle
sales, targeting 25% of new vehicle sales by 2025.
Industry Development Plan

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Carbon peaking andneutrality blueprint for
urbanisation and ruraldevelopment• Carbon emissions from urban and rural construction peak before 2030.
• Retrofits for public buildings in key cities to be collectively 20% moreenergy efficient by 2030.
• Electricity accounts for 65% of energy demand in urban buildings by 2030.

China is a market mover for all fossil fuels due to the scale of its energy use. In 2022, it was
the world’s largest coal consumer, producer and importer, though its imports decline almost
30% by 2030 in the STEPS, falling behind the level of imports in India. It is also one of thelargest oil consumers in the world, accounting for 15% of global demand in 2022, and oil
imports are projected to increase to 2030. It recently also became the world’s largest natural
gas importer and has contracted large volumes from global LNG markets as well as key
pipeline suppliers, including Russia. Despite growing deployment of clean energy
Chapter 5 | Regional insights

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technologies, China remains the largest consumer of fossil fuels through to 2050 in the STEPS.
Its coal use peaks around 2025, then starts a long-term decline to 50% below the peak by
2050. Natural gas use continues to grow strongly to 2030 before eventually peaking in 2040
at about one-quarter higher than the level today. Oil consumption peaks at 16.6 mb/d before
2030, ending decades of growth, and then declines steadily to 12 mb/d in 2050.
China’s updated NDC targets, which include reaching carbon neutrality before 2060, are fullyreflected in the APS. In this scenario, China’s total CO2 emissions peak before 2025, withfaster progress on energy efficiency, renewables and nuclear power leading to an earlier
peak in coal use, and faster deployment of EVs helping to curb oil demand. The unabated useof coal is cut by two-thirds by 2040 and almost 90% by 2050. Natural gas use still increases
to 2030 before entering a long-term decline, but less of it is used is all sectors in the APS:
some of the biggest differences are power (about 90 bcm lower in 2050 than in the STEPS),
followed by industry (80 bcm lower), buildings (60 bcm lower) and transport (20 bcm). China
has amassed a considerable portfolio of contracted LNG and pipeline imports in recent years.
With lower demand in the APS, around 80 bcm of a 270 bcm portfolio of contracted gas issurplus to requirements in 2030. Oil demand in China also peaks earlier in the APS, at
15.9 mb/d in the mid-2020s, and then gradually falls to 6.9 mb/d in 2050.

5.8.2

How soon will coal use peak in China?

The question of when coal use in China will peak is an important one for the global clean
energy transition because China is responsible for such a large share of global coal use. In
2022, China consumed more coal than all other countries combined, and combustion of coalemitted 8.6 Gt CO2, accounting for about 70% of China’s total emissions and one-quarter ofglobal energy-related emissions.

Mtce

Figure 5.20 ⊳ Coal consumption by sector in China by scenario, 2022-2050
4 000

Announced Pledges Scenario

Stated Policies Scenario

3 000
2 000
1 000

2010

2050 2022

2022
Electricity and heat

Iron and steel

Chemicals

2050
CementOther

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Coal consumption peaks in the mid-2020s and thereafter
declines by 3% per year in the STEPS and 6% per year in the APS

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

The power sector accounts for over 60% of China’s coal use today (Figure 5.21). Coalaccounted for over 60% of electricity generation in China in 2022. While high, this share ofgeneration is far below the peak of 81% in 2007 and the average over the last 20 years of
73%. Increasing demand for electricity has nevertheless led to China completing almost
40 GW of new coal capacity on average per year over the past five years, more than the restof the world combined in the same period. In 2022, close to 90 GW of new coal-fired capacity
was approved to start construction plus another 50 GW planned, adding to the nearly
100 GW under construction as of the end of the year, indicating that total coal capacity in
China will continue to increase to 2030. However, output from coal-fired power plants in
China peaks around 2025 and declines before 2030 in both the STEPS and APS. This happens
because the average capacity factor of coal plants in China declines to just over 40% in 2030
in the STEPS and 35% in the APS, compared with 53% in 2022, on the basis that China will
gradually use its coal-fired power more to provide flexibility and less to deliver bulk energy,
though there is inevitably some uncertainty about the speed and degree of this shift. After
2030, the pathways for unabated coal-fired generation rapidly diverge, with coal use falling
further and faster in the APS than in the STEPS.
Figure 5.21 ⊳ Electricity generation by source in China in the STEPS and APS,
TWh

2010-2030

6 000

STEPS:
Coal
Natural gas
Solar PV
Wind
Hydro
Other lowemissions

4 000

2 000

APS

2010

2020

2030
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Coal-fired electricity generation is set to decrease from the mid-2020 in the APS

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

while solar PV capacity grows rapidly and passes 2 500 GW by 2030

The extent to which coal-fired power and related emissions decline in the long run varies by
scenario as it is highly dependent on the ability of renewables growth to outpace overall
demand growth. Central to renewables growth is the ability to continue scaling up solar PV
and wind deployment in China. Manufacturing capacity, particularly for solar PV, creates ahuge opportunity to do so (see Chapter 1). In the APS, solar PV installed capacity nears
5 400 GW by 2030. It could go even faster, though successfully integrating more solar PV
requires overcoming a number of challenges: the electricity system has to be equipped tointegrate solar PV and wind output in full, and that requires expansion of electricity
Chapter 5 | Regional insights

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transmission, modernisation of distribution grids, storage technologies and a number ofoperational changes.
Coal use in the industry sector has been increasing rapidly since the turn of the millennium.
It accounted for 45% of industrial total consumption of energy in 2022 and was responsiblefor 30% of total coal consumption in China. The iron and steel sub-sector is the largest
industrial coal user today, consuming more than 500 Mtce of the total 970 Mtce used byindustry in China. Almost 90% of its steel is produced in integrated blast furnace basic oxygen
furnace (BF-BOF) steel plants where coking coal is used both as reagent to transform iron ore
into iron and as a fuel to heat iron to its melting point (more than 1 500 °C). Iron and steel
coal use peaked in 2014 and declines from 2022 in both the STEPS and APS as scrap becomes
more widely available for secondary production, which is much less energy-intensive anduses electric arc furnaces to provide heat rather than coal (Figure 5.22). Coal use is also
widespread in other heavy industries, from cement to chemicals, as well as in light industries.
Strategies to switch away from coal in industry sectors are explored in Chapter 3 of Coal in
Net Zero Transitions (IEA, 2022b).
Because coal combustion in China accounts for around one-quarter of total energy-related
CO2 emissions, cuts in its coal use have a major impact on the global outlook for emissions.
In the APS, CO2 emissions from coal combustion in China decline from 8.6 Gt in 2022 to 1.1 Gt
in 2050. This covers 30% of the global CO2 emissions reductions that are needed in this
scenario to meet the emissions reduction targets announced by countries all around theworld. While this would be a significant achievement, much more needs to be done in China
and other countries to enable a faster transition away from unabated fossil fuels use if theworld is to achieve global net zero emissions by 2050.
Figure 5.22 ⊳ Steel production by process and fuel shares in industry
Gt

in China by scenario, 2022-2050

1.2

Steel production and process share

100%

0.9

75%

0.6

50%

0.3

25%
2022

STEPS APS
2030
Scrap-based EAF H₂ DRI-EAF

Fuel shares in industry

2022
STEPS APS
2050
BOF Production (left axis)

STEPS APS
2030
Electricity

STEPS APS
2050
Other Coal
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Coal use in industry plummets as electrification progresses in most sub-sectors.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Steel increases reliance on secondary production and hydrogen-based iron production.
Note: Scrap-based EAF = steel production from scrap in electric arc furnace; H2 DRI-EAF = steel production inelectric arc furnace using iron from hydrogen-based direct reduced iron; BOF = steel production in basic
oxygen furnace using iron from a blast furnace or from a smelting reduction furnace.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

5.9

India

5.9.1

Key energy and emissions trends

Figure 5.23 ⊳ Key trends in India, 2010-2050
10

Oil demand (mb/d)

5

Natural gas demand (bcm)

200

1 000

100

500

Industry

Transport
2010

2010

2050

Electricity generation (TWh)2050

Industry
2010

300

4

3 500

150

2

Clean energy

Solar PV
2050

2010
STEPS

2050

2050

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

Investment (billion USD)

7 000

2010

Coal demand (Mtce)

Power
2010

2050

APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Through much of its modern history, India has worked to build power generation and refining
capacity, provide affordable access to energy and ensure security of supply. A lot has beenachieved in the past few decades. Since 2000, India has brought electricity to 810 million
people, larger than the population of the European Union and the United States combined.
India has also brought clean cooking access to 655 million people over the same period,
although 430 million people continue to live in households that use traditional biomass
today. Over the past five years, solar PV has accounted for nearly 60% of new generation
capacity. India has had the single largest light-emitting diode (LED) adoption campaign in theworld, with around 370 million LEDs distributed through the UJALA scheme by 2023. India
has also achieved self-sufficiency in petroleum refining capacity despite being a net crude oil
importer, although certain petroleum products continue to be imported.
India is moving into a dynamic new phase in its energy development marked by a long-term
net zero emissions ambition, increased regulatory sophistication, a focus on clean energy
deployment, and the creation of domestic clean energy technology supply chains.
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Recognising the potential to transform its energy sector and reduce the import burden offossil fuels while reducing CO2 emissions, India has announced a net zero emissions target by
2070, and has put in place policies to scale up clean energy supply and clean technology
manufacturing. While clean energy investment in India more than doubles in the STEPS by2030 from around USD 60 billion in 2022, investment needs to nearly triple by the end of thisdecade to be on a trajectory to meet its net zero emissions target, which is reflected in the
APS (Figure 5.23).
In the STEPS, India sees the largest energy demand growth of any country or region in theworld over the next three decades. Although India’s population growth has slowed to reach
replacement levels, its urban population increases by 74% and per capita income triples by
2050. Industrial output expands rapidly, for example through a tripling of output of iron andsteel, and doubling of cement, plus there is a ninefold increase in residential air conditioner
ownership by 2050. As a result, demand for oil and natural gas increases in the STEPS bynearly 70% between 2022 and 2050, while coal demand increases by 10%, even as solar PV
makes inroads into electricity generation. As a result, India’s annual CO2 emissions still risenearly 30% by 2050, which is one of the largest increases in the world.
In the APS, the increase in clean energy investment changes the outlook. In the STEPS, solar
provides nearly 45% of total generated power by 2050; in the APS, it crosses 50%. In boththe STEPS and APS, India achieves its target of 50% non-fossil power generation capacity by
2030. Clean energy investment in the APS over and above those in the STEPS also drives
faster growth in electromobility, low-emissions hydrogen, grid expansions and other clean
energy infrastructure. As a result, India’s annual CO2 emissions fall sharply in the APS by over
40% from current levels by 2050, even though its GDP quadruples over this period.
Table 5.10 ⊳Key policy initiatives in India

PolicyDescription

Net Zero Emissions by
2070• India announced the ambition to reach net zero emissions by 2070 in 2021. It
was formally adopted as a part of its updated Nationally Determined
Contribution in 2022.

Renewable energy and • Aims to have 50% of power generation capacity fuelled by non-fossil sources
transmission targets
by 2030, compared to 41% in 2022. It has also set a target of 500 GW of nonfossil capacity by 2030.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• The Green Energy Corridor project aims to create transmission capacity tointegrate a rising share of variable renewable power. Its transmission plantargets the integration of 500 GW of renewable capacity by 2030.
Production Linked
Incentives• Provide subsidies towards the creation of new manufacturing capacity of solar
PV modules and modern batteries.

National Green
Hydrogen Mission• Targets low-emissions hydrogen production capacity of 5 Mt per year (with anassociated renewable energy capacity addition of 125 GW). This is to beaccompanied by policies to generate demand for low-emissions hydrogen,particularly from industry.

Carbon Market• Passed a law in 2022 that sets the stage for the creation of the Indian Carbon
Market, a carbon credit trading scheme.

242International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

5.9.2

Impact of air conditioners on electricity demand in India

Over the past five decades, India has witnessed over 700 heat wave events, which haveclaimed over 17 000 lives (Ray et al., 2021). Fuelled by its geographic and meteorologicalconditions, air conditioner ownership in India has been steadily rising with growing incomes,
tripling since 2010 to reach 24 units per 100 households. The impact of cooling needs onelectricity consumption is already clear. Electricity demand is sensitive to temperatures, andin India’s case there is a sharp increase in demand as temperatures cross the 25 °C threshold(Figure 5.24). Electricity consumption due to space cooling increased 21% between 2019 and2022, and today nearly 10% of electricity demand comes from space cooling requirements.
Figure 5.24 ⊳ Daily average electricity load versus daily temperature in India,
Daily average electricity load (GW)

2019 and 2022

200

Daily demand
2022

175

2019
Thermosensitivity
2022
2019

150
125
100

15

20

25

30
35
Daily average temperature (°C)
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Electricity demand rises sharply with temperatures above 25 °C;
use of more space cooling appliances is pushing electricity demand up

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Household air conditioner ownership is estimated to expand ninefold by 2050 across the IEA
scenarios, outpacing the growth in ownership of every other major household applianceincluding televisions, refrigerators and washing machines (Figure 5.25). Residential
electricity demand from cooling increases ninefold in the STEPS by 2050. By 2050, India’s
total electricity demand from residential air conditioners in the STEPS exceeds total
electricity consumption in the whole of Africa today. In the APS, however, electricity demand
for air conditioners is nearly 15% lower in 2050 as it is in the STEPS as a result of increased
use of energy-efficient air conditioners and thermal insulation in buildings. This reduction
itself is larger than the total electricity generation by several countries today, such as that of
the Netherlands.

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Figure 5.25 ⊳ Household appliance ownership in India to 2050 and contribution
Household appliance ownership

2.4

Index (2022 = 100)

Units per householdof cooling to peak electrical load by scenario, 2030

1.8
1.2
0.6

200

Electricity peak load by end-use

150
100
50

2000

2022

Television
Dishwasher

Refrigerator
Air conditioner
Washing machine

2050

2022

2030
STEPS

2022

Cooling

Other

2030
APS

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Air conditioners are projected to be the fastest growing household appliance,
which drives half of the growth in peak electricity demand to 2030 in the STEPSThe growth in ownership and use of air conditioners and other cooling equipment is also oneof the key drivers of the increase in peak electricity demand in India. In the STEPS, peakelectricity demand rises around 60% from the 2022 level by 2030 and cooling accounts fornearly half of this increase. In the APS, however, the implementation of building codes, theuse of more efficient appliances and the adoption of demand response measures enable thesame cooling needs to be met with less energy. This reduces peak electricity demand growthby nearly one-quarter compared to the STEPS. Given that the electricity system is sized tomeet peak demand, lower peak demand helps to lower electricity investment needs andsystem costs. Although solar PV matches well with daytime cooling needs, cooling demandis also significant in India during the late evening and at night. Lowering cooling demandthrough energy efficiency policies therefore reduces the need for investment in batteries or
expensive standby generation capacity, and thus helps to integrate renewables more costeffectively.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

5.9.3

Will domestic solar PV module manufacturing keep pace with solar
capacity growth in India?

India has historically been a net importer of fossil fuels, and it has now become an importerof modern clean energy technologies as it scales up solar and wind power generation
capacity. For example, its imports of solar PV modules in 2021-2022 were valued at
USD 3.4 billion (MCI, 2023). Recognising this import dependence and mindful of the highlevels of concentration in clean energy technology supply chains, the national government

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

launched the Production Linked Incentives (PLI) programme in 2020 to support domestic
manufacturing in a range of critical sectors, including solar PV modules and advanced
chemistry cell battery manufacturing.
The PLI programme for solar PV module manufacturing budgeted nearly USD 2.5 billion in
subsidies with the aim of creating 65 GW per year of new manufacturing capacity.
Manufacturing companies were selected in two tranches in 2023 and a total of 48 GW of
new capacity was deemed eligible for subsidy awards once manufacturing begins. These new
production lines are expected to come online within two to three years.
Figure 5.26 ⊳ Solar PV module manufacturing capacity and solar PV capacity
GW/yearadditions in India by scenario to 2030

80

Solar module manufacturing capacity

Solar capacity additions
STEPS
APS

60
40
20

2022

PLI-1

PLI-2

2027

2022 2023 2027 2023 2027
-26 -30 -26 -30
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

If planned solar PV module manufacturing capacity additions under the Production Linked
Incentives materialise, they would be adequate to meet domestic demand this decade

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: PLI-1 and PLI-2 refer to the two tranches of the Production Linked Incentives programme under whichsolar manufacturers were selected to receive subsidies in lieu of creating new manufacturing capacity.

India is expected to meet its 2030 target to have half of its electricity capacity be non-fossil
well before the end of the decade. If the new solar PV module manufacturing capacity under
the PLI programme comes fully online by 2026, it would progress the solar PV module
manufacturing capacity in India to well over what is needed until the end of this decade notjust in the STEPS but also in the APS (Figure 5.26). Solar PV module imports could continue
for a few years because developers will source the cheapest panels available, because thecapacity utilisation factor remains lower than the nameplate capacity, and because there arelags between the nameplate capacity coming online and the panels being manufactured,
shipped and installed. Nonetheless, as domestic production ramps up, solar PV module
imports will decline and it will help to establish India as a reliable exporter.

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5.10 Japan and Korea
5.10.1 Key energy and emissions trends
Figure 5.27 ⊳ Key trends in Japan and Korea, 2010-2050
8

Oil demand (mb/d)

200

Natural gas demand (bcm)

1004Transport
2010

300

150

Industry

Power
2050

2010

2050

2010

Electricity generation (TWh)Investment (billion USD)
3 000
200

2

1 500

1

100

Clean energy

Solar PV
2010

2050

2010
STEPS

Coal demand (Mtce)

2050

2050

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

Power
2010

2050

APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Japan and Korea continue to map out secure pathways to reach net zero emissions pledges
by 2050, but it remains challenging to decarbonise large industrial economies that havehistorically relied heavily on imported fossil fuels.
In the STEPS, the share of coal and natural gas in the power mix of the two countries –currently at 65% – falls sharply over the next few decades as Japan’s Green Transformation
policy and Korea’s Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand dramaticallyincrease the share of low-emissions fuels in generation, including solar PV, wind and nuclear.
The share of generation from low-emissions technologies of both countries combined rises
from 30% today to around 85% by 2050 in the STEPS. Natural gas demand almost halves by
mid-century, with remaining widespread use in the power, building and industrial sectors,
while coal use declines by two-thirds, largely in industry (Figure 5.27). Reduced oil demandis shaped by increased adoption of zero emissions vehicles (ZEV), sales of which rise sharply
as government support schemes in both countries incentivise their uptake: ZEVs account for

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

65% of new vehicles sold by 2050, bringing oil demand down from nearly 6 mb/d today toless than 4 mb/d by 2050.
The APS incorporates the pledges stated by Japan and Korea to reach climate neutrality by
2050. Japan’s Green Growth Strategy and Korea’s Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth Act
envisage full decarbonisation of the power sector. Japan also aims for all new cars and vans
sold to be either battery electric, plug-in hybrid, hybrid or fuel cell vehicles, with a target dateof 2035 for cars and 2040 for vans. Korea has set a target for more than 80% of car sales tobe low-emissions vehicles by 2030. Both countries have also introduced guidelines for newbuildings to meet zero-carbon standards by the end of this decade. As a result, investment
in clean energy technologies in the APS rapidly scales up to over USD 175 billion by 2050.
Table 5.11 ⊳Key policy initiatives in Japan and Korea

Policy5

Description

Japan: Basic Hydrogen • Aims to accelerate public and private investment in the hydrogen supply chain
Strategy
with JPY 15 trillion (USD 114 billion) over the next 15 years.
(updated in 2023)• Plans to install around 15 GW of electrolysers by Japanese companies both
domestically and abroad by 2030.
Japan: Green
Transformation (GX)
basic policy• Aims to achieve decarbonisation, energy security and economic growth withpublic and private investment of JPY 150 trillion (USD 1 trillion) over the nextten years.
• Intends to fund the promotion of renewable energy, i.e. R&D offshore windcost reduction, and transition, i.e. building mass hydrogen supply chain, andextend the lifetime of existing nuclear reactors.

Korea: 10th Basic Plan
for Long-term
Electricity Supply and
Demand• Seeks to increase the share of renewables and nuclear – a shift from previous
phase-out plans – in the power mix to 31% and 35% respectively and reduce
the share of coal to 15% by 2036.

Korea: 1st National
Basic Plan for Carbon
Neutrality and Green
Growth• Includes 2023 NDC updates of the 2021 NDC which maintains the same GHG
reduction target at 40% from 2018 levels but with adjusted sectoral targets.

• Plans to expand the power generation capacity from 148 GW level in 2023 to
239 GW by 2036.

• Intends to strengthen the power sector reduction target to 45.9% by 2030
from 2018 levels, with increased roles for nuclear and renewables, and to
reduce the target for the industry sector to a 11.4% cut by 2030 from 14.5% in
the previous NDC.

Note: JPY = Japanese yen; NDC = Nationally Determined Contribution.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Japan and Korea both have small land areas relative to the size of their populations andindustrial sectors: this is a disadvantage when it comes to deploying renewables such as solar
PV and onshore wind. Their distinct geographical settings require the two countries to
explore a diversified mix of clean technologies which includes major roles for imported lowemissions hydrogen and hydrogen-rich fuels, floating offshore wind and nuclear.

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247

5.10.2 Challenges and opportunities of nuclear and offshore wind
Both Korea and Japan need to determine their specific path and mix of technologies toachieve secure clean energy transitions. In the power sector, both countries have been
investing in solar PV, which expanded significantly between 2010 and 2022. Today, however,fossil fuels still account for two-thirds of power generation in both countries, mainly fromcoal and natural gas. Further acceleration of efforts on clean electricity generation isnecessary to achieve their goals for clean energy transitions. Nuclear power and offshore
wind have the potential to make a significant contribution to decarbonising the power sector,
and in our scenarios their role in electricity generation rises rapidly (Figure 5.28). The shareof nuclear power in electricity generation in Japan and Korea increases by 75% in both STEPS
and APS by 2050. Maintaining effective and efficient safety regulations is clearly essential inthis context.
Figure 5.28 ⊳ Growth in nuclear and offshore wind electricity relative

to total electricity generation growth by scenario, 2022-2050
Japan

TWh

400

Korea
Offshore wind
Nuclear
Total electricity
generation

300
200
100
0
-100

STEPS APS
2022-30STEPS APS
2030-50STEPS APS
2022-30STEPS APS
2030-50
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Nuclear plays a major role in increased electricity generation by 2030

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

while offshore wind is expected to develop rapidly after 2030

Offshore wind could unlock the enormous energy potential of large ocean areas surrounding
both countries and become a major source of renewable energy. Offshore wind capacity inJapan and Korea totals only 0.3 GW today, due largely to a lack of transmission capacity andthe high cost of facilities. The unique geographical characteristics of Korea and Japan add tothe challenges: the sea surrounding both countries is more than 50 metres deep in many
places and has steep slopes which make it impossible to deploy traditional seabed-mounted
offshore wind installations. Technological development and cost reductions in floating
systems could accelerate expansion of offshore wind, which is in the early deployment stage
today. Government support is planned, as accelerating the full-scale roll-out of floating
248

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

systems requires extensive funding for R&D and for efforts to de-risk investment in early
projects. Policies for offshore wind in Japan and Korea aim to tackle the challenges bysimplifying project approval processes, building resilient supply chains and developing
efficient low cost structures that can adapt to the particular geographical and climatic
environment. In the STEPS, combined for Japan and Korea offshore wind increases its
contribution to generation from less than 0.1% today to 15% by 2050. In the APS, its
contribution in electricity generation increases to 20%, which reaches the share of solar PV,
and offshore wind and nuclear together account for nearly 45% of total generation by 2050
in the APS.

5.10.3 What role can hydrogen play in the energy mix and how can thegovernments deploy it?
In the APS, Japan and Korea import significant quantities of hydrogen and hydrogen-based
fuels for use in the power sector and for direct use in industry. By 2050, Korea and Japanaccount for almost 40% of global hydrogen imports (Figure 5.29).
Figure 5.29 ⊳ Imported hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels in the APS,
EJ

2030 and 2050
2030

2.0

2050

1.5
1.0
0.5
Japan

European Rest
Union of world
HydrogenAmmonia
Korea

Japan

Korea

European Rest
Union of world
Synthetic oil products
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Japan and Korea become the second-largest importers of hydrogen

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

and hydrogen-based fuels after the European Union

Today Japan and Korea’s share of hydrogen in total final consumption is close to 0%. It ismainly produced through natural gas reforming and consumed in oil refineries. Bothgovernments aim to expand its use in coming decades with 20% ammonia co-firing by 2030
(50% by 2035 in Japan) to reduce the carbon intensity of the existing coal-fired fleet. Afterthe power sector, demand for hydrogen will be driven by hard-to-abate sectors such as longdistance trucking, aviation, shipping and heavy industry (Figure 5.30). In aviation andChapter 5 | Regional insights

249

5

shipping, demand is likely to be focussed on synthetic kerosene and ammonia. By 2050,
hydrogen accounts for 2% of total final consumption in the STEPS and up to 9% in the APS.
Figure 5.30 ⊳ Hydrogen supply by source and demand by sector
PJ

in Japan and Korea by scenario
STEPS

2 500

APS

2 000
1 500
1 000
500
2022
DemandSupply2030

Transport
Power
Unabated fossil fuelsElectrolysis

2050

2050

2030

Industry
RefineryFossil fuels with CCUS
Imported hydrogen

Buildings
Other
By-product
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Fossil fuel-based hydrogen is used on an interim basis until low-emissionshydrogen supply scales up mostly for co-firing and in hard-to-abate sectors

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: Transformation includes co-firing in power generation, hydrogen as an input to hydrogen-based fuels
and use in biofuel production. Imported hydrogen includes hydrogen from cracking of imported ammonia,
imports of liquefied hydrogen and synthetic oil products. By-product refers to hydrogen produced in naphtha
reformers in refineries and petrochemical facilities.

While unabated fossil fuel-based hydrogen meets most existing demand today, Japan and
Korea are looking for low-emissions hydrogen supply to meet new demand and replace
existing unabated production capacities. In the APS, hydrogen produced from electrolysis
ramps up significantly, accounting for nearly three-quarters of domestic production in thetwo countries in 2050. To help develop and secure the low-emissions hydrogen that theyneed, Japan and Korea are actively seeking partnerships with potential exporting countries
and technology providers. Long-term investment and contracts are required across hydrogenvalue chains, from upstream (fertilisers and providers of renewable electricity, electrolysers
and CO2 capture) to transportation and storage (including ships, ports and plants to convert
different hydrogen commodities). Progress is being made in creating reliable demand, butmore needs to be done on that front to support long-distance transport and industrial uses
where off-take risks are hindering the adoption of new equipment and processes. The
development of international standards, certification arrangements and emissions
accounting frameworks all could help the scaling up that is needed and to assist governments
to achieve emissions reduction target through the use of imported hydrogen.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

5.11 Southeast Asia
5.11.1 Key energy and emissions trends
Figure 5.31 ⊳ Key trends in Southeast Asia, 2010-2050
8

Oil demand (mb/d)Natural gas demand (bcm)

4

300

500

150

250

Transport
2010

Power

Industry
2050

2010

2050

2010

Electricity generation (TWh)Investment (billion USD)
5 000
250

3.0

2 500

1.5

125

Clean energy

Solar PV
2010

2050

2010
STEPS

Coal demand (Mtce)

2050

2050

CO2 emissions (Gt CO2)

Power
2010

2050

APS
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Southeast Asia is home to nearly 9% of the world population and accounts for 6% of global
GDP. It is a major engine of economic growth and has an outsized influence in global energy.
The collective GDP of countries in Southeast Asia has nearly tripled since 2000, outpacing
growth in global GDP over this period. As a result, energy demand growth in the region has
also outpaced the global average, and that is set to continue: in the STEPS, the region
experiences the second-highest energy demand growth in the world after India until 2050,
driven by an increasing population, rising standards of living and rapid urbanisation.
As a result of its continued reliance on fossil fuels, Southeast Asia also sees the largest
absolute growth of CO2 emissions of any region in the world. Its emissions increase by 46%
from 2022 levels by 2050 in the STEPS, with coal responsible for much of the rise. Southeast
Asia is one of the few regions in the world where electricity generation from coal increases
in the STEPS through to 2050. While the share of coal in power generation falls to less than
one-third by 2050 in the STEPS, it is still the second-highest of any region in the world by
2050.
Chapter 5 | Regional insights

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5

Today Southeast Asia relies heavily on coal for electricity generation. Two ambitious Just
Energy Transitions Partnerships (JETP) were established in Southeast Asia in 2022, one withIndonesia and another with Viet Nam. The partnerships promise better access tointernational financing to accelerate transitions away from unabated coal-fired power tohelp reduce emissions. In Viet Nam, the latest power development plan seeks to reshape its
energy system, including by moving away from unabated coal use and by scaling up the useof low-emissions hydrogen and ammonia in the power sector.
Table 5.12 ⊳Key policy initiatives in Southeast Asia

PolicyDescription

Net zero emissions
ambitions• Commitments to net zero emissions by 2050 (Laos, Malaysia, Singapore,
Viet Nam, Brunei Darussalam), by 2060 (Indonesia) and by 2065 (Thailand).
• Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Viet Nam, Singapore and Cambodia havecommitted to the Global Methane Pledge.

Just Energy Transition
Partnership• Just Energy Transition Partnerships with Indonesia (USD 20 billion) and Viet
Nam (USD 15.5 billion).

Regional initiatives• ASEAN Plan for Action on Energy Co-operation sets out aspirational targets
including a reduction of energy intensity by 32% in 2025 based on 2005
levels, and an increase of renewables to 23% by 2025 in the region.
• ASEAN Power Grid collaboration which will be carried out by the ASEAN
Center for Energy and the US Agency for International Development.
• Asia Zero Emissions Community initiative by Japan to bring together
economies towards transitions to net zero emissions – USD 8 billion by 2030
towards clean energy projects in participating Southeast Asian countries
including Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam.

Support to EVs• Multiple policies to support EV use, such as reduced value-added tax andsubsidies (Indonesia); tax incentives for companies renting EVs andsubsidies for EV charger manufacturing (Malaysia); and cell manufacturing(Thailand).

Note: ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Southeast Asia has emerged as a global hub for clean energy technology manufacturing, with
Viet Nam and Indonesia joining the ranks of exporters of equipment such as solar PV
modules. However, the race to build industrial capacity risks leading to rapid developmentof captive coal projects, such as for nickel processing in Indonesia. Overall, clean energy
investment in the region was nearly USD 30 billion in 2022, which looks to more than double
by the end of this decade. Nevertheless, there is more to do to be on track to deliver longer
term ambitions as reflected in the APS. For this to happen, clean energy investment needs
to nearly quadruple by 2030 and continue rising afterwards. Investment on this scale in the
APS leads to solar power increasing almost sixfold by 2030 and to coal-fired power
generation halving by 2050 from 2022 levels, reducing overall CO2 emissions by over 40%,even as the region’s economy grows by well over two-and-half-times larger.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

5.11.2 How can international finance accelerate clean energy transitions
in Southeast Asia?
Marshalling the necessary finance to fulfil clean energy transition objectives can bechallenging for emerging market and developing economies as they tend to rely heavily on
public investment by governments or state-owned enterprises. They face relatively highborrowing costs, and stepping up investment calls for multiple sources of finance: both
domestic and international private finance have pivotal roles to play. Mobilising this capitalrequires international co-operation, involvement of international and development financeinstitutions, and reforms to domestic policy and regulatory frameworks that facilitate private
investment.
Just Energy Transition Partnerships, launched at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, attempt toaddress this challenge. They are a financing co-operation mechanism between advanced
economies and a coal-dependent emerging market and developing economy which commits
to ambitious emissions reduction targets and defines a credible national transition pathway.
The JETP framework includes multilateral development banks, national development banks
and private lenders. The aim is to make available a mix of financing, some at concessionalterms, with the goal of mobilising more resources by catalysing international private
investment.
The JETP between Indonesia and the International Partners Group (IPG) – which includes
Canada, Denmark, European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, United Kingdom
and United States – was developed to help Indonesia get on track to bring emissions to net
zero by 2060. The JETP helped strengthen Indonesia’s ambitions, bringing its pledges in linewith the milestones set out in the Energy Sector Roadmap to Net Zero Emissions in Indonesia(IEA, 2022c), which was prepared in co-operation with the Indonesian Ministry of Energy andMineral Resources. Putting the economy on a trajectory consistent with reaching net zero
emissions by 2060 necessitates more than doubling total annual investment in the energy
sector by 2030, raising the share of renewables in the power sector to one-third by 2030
(Figure 5.32). It also means power sector emissions peaking at no more than 290 Mt in 2030,
and unabated coal-fired electricity generation peaking at around the same time.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

In pursuit of these objectives, the Indonesia JETP aims to secure an initial USD 20 billion in
financing over three to five years from both public and private sources. USD 10 billion
consists of public sector finance backed by the International Partners Group, with theremainder to be obtained through a combination of market-rate loans and private
investment. Another objective of the partnership is to help Indonesia update its technicaland regulatory frameworks in order to overcome barriers to investment, facilitate thedeployment of support and mobilise further domestic and international capital to speed up
the transition to net zero emissions.
The JETP between Viet Nam and the IPG was developed to support the country in pursuit of
its target to reach net zero emissions by 2050. It reflects its ambition to accelerate its
transition to a carbon neutral energy system, including its intention to bring about a peak in
Chapter 5 | Regional insights

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5

emissions by 2030, to cease issuing permits for the construction of new coal-fired power
plants, to promote the development of renewables and to improve energy efficiency, while
ensuring energy remains secure and affordable. The Viet Nam JETP aims to mobilise at least
USD 15.5 billion over the next five years. Half of this, nearly USD 8 billion, will be public sector
finance backed by the IPG. As with Indonesia, the aim is for international funding to help
catalyse additional private sector finance that at least matches the level of public sector
finance, and to help Viet Nam attract the capital it needs as its clean energy transition moves
forward.
Figure 5.32 ⊳ Energy sector investment and key milestones in the clean
energy transition in Indonesia in the APS

Total energy investment(Billion USD 2022, MER)300

Coal unabated electricity
(TWh)
300

40

200

200

20

100

100

60

Power sector emissions(Mt CO₂)

2050

2040

2030

2022

2050

2040

2030

2022

2030

2022

2020

2018

Clean energy

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

To get on track for net zero emissions by 2060 and meet the JETP target to peak emissions
in the power sector by 2030, total annual energy investment needs to double by 2030

Viet Nam’s Power Development Plan (PDP) 8, approved in May 2022, sets out its increased
ambition and details a pathway for power sector development to 2030. It also includes alonger term vision to 2050. In line with JETP commitments, coal-fired capacity is planned topeak at about 30 GW in 2030, down from 55 GW in the previous PDP. Beyond 2030, coalplants would have to close when they are 40 years old unless converted to run on ammonia
or biomass. Significantly raising the share of variable renewables in the electricity mix is
another key component of the plan, and is accompanied by a recognition that substantial
investment in grids is needed to make this work. Offshore wind is planned to play animportant role, reflecting the fact that Viet Nam is home to some of the best offshore windresources in Southeast Asia.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

5.11.3 How can regional integration help integrate more renewables?
Clean energy transitions in Southeast Asia, supported by the JETP programme, will reshapepower systems and help to strengthen energy security. Establishing markets and254

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

mechanisms for renewables deployment, scaling up clean energy investment and limiting
coal-fired power will be crucial in the period to 2030. Integrating rising wind and solar PV
capacity into electricity systems will become an increasingly central task after 2030, as theirshare of the overall generation mix rises from 20% in 2030 to over 50% in 2050 in the APS,
compared with just 5% in 2022 (Figure 5.33).
Figure 5.33 ⊳ Wind and solar PV in total electricity generation andgrid investment in Southeast Asia by scenario

75%
50%
25%

APS

STEPS

Grid investments

Billion USD (2022, MER)

100%

Share of solar PV and windin electricity generation2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

APS

40

5

30
STEPS
20
10

2018

2020

2022 2030 2050 2030 2050
IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Grid investment requirements quadruple in the APS by 2050 as the share ofvariable renewable energy in electricity supply increases

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Enhanced regional integration through strengthened electricity grids can improve electricity
security and aid renewables integration in Southeast Asia in several ways. Flexibility needs
can be reduced through regional integration by enabling electricity demand to be balanced
over larger areas, which tends to smooth out variability and can moderate peak loads.
Flexibility needs can also be reduced by linking systems that rely on wind and solar PV tovarying degrees and that have different production profiles. Regional integration can also
boost the available supply of flexibility by facilitating the pooling of a wider set of resources,
including hydropower, fossil fuel-based capacity and energy storage. Better integrated
systems could also mitigate the risk of outages and increase system resilience.
Regional integration requires the scaling up of investment in electricity grids, including ininterconnections between countries. In Southeast Asia, grid investment rises from around
USD 10 billion in 2022 to USD 16 billion in 2030 and USD 40 billion in 2050 in the APS. Thereis already growing momentum for increasing regional integration of the electricity network
in Southeast Asia. Programmes such as the ASEAN Power Grid have boosted collaboration
between countries and brought greater awareness of the advantages of integration for theregion.
Chapter 5 | Regional insights

255

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

ANNEXESBox A.1 ⊳World Energy Outlook links

WEO homepage
WEO-2023 information

iea.li/weo23

WEO-2023 datasets
Data in Annex A is available to download free in electronic format at:

iea.li/weo-data

An extended dataset, including the data behind figures, tables
and the WEO-2023 slide deck is available to purchase at:
iea.li/weo-extended-data

Modelling
Documentation and methodology / Investment costs
iea.li/model

Recent analysis
Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway
to Keep the 1.5 °C Goal in Reach
Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions

iea.li/netzero
iea.li/grids

Global EV Outlook 2023

iea.li/GEVO2023

World Energy Investment 2023

iea.li/wei2023

Financing clean energy in Africa

iea.li/AfricaEnergyFinancing

Scaling up Private Finance for Clean Energy inEmerging and Developing Economies

iea.li/finance-emde

Global Methane Tracker 2023

iea.li/methane-tracker23

Critical Minerals Market Review 2023

iea.li/critical-minerals23

The Future of Heat Pumps

iea.li/heatpumps

Databases
Policy Databases
Sustainable Development Goal 7

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Energy subsidies:
Tracking the impact of fossil-fuel subsidies

iea.li/policies-databaseiea.li/SDG
iea.li/subsidies

Annex A
Tables for scenario projections
General note to the tables
This annex includes global historical and projected data by scenario for the following fivedatasets:

A.1: World energy supply

A.2: World final energy consumption

A.3: World electricity sector: gross electricity generation and electrical capacity.



A.4: World CO₂ emissions: carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion
and industrial processes.



A.5: World economic and activity indicators: selected economic and activity indicators.

Each dataset is given for the following scenarios: (a) Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) [Tables
A.1a. to A.5a]; (b) Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) [Tables A.1b. to A.5b]; and (c) Net Zero
Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario [Tables A.1c. to A.5c].

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

This annex also includes regional historical and projected data for the STEPS and the APS for
the following datasets:


Tables A.6 – A.7: Total energy supply, renewables energy supply in exajoules (EJ).



Tables A.8 – A.11: Oil production, oil demand, world liquids demand, and refining
capacity and runs in million barrels per day (mb/d).

Tables A.12 – A.13: Natural gas production, natural gas demand in billion cubic metres(bcm).



Tables A.14 – A.15: Coal production, coal demand in million tonnes of coal equivalent(Mtce).



Tables A.16 – A.22: Electricity generation by total and by source (renewables, solar
photovoltaics [PV], wind, nuclear, natural gas, coal) in terawatt-hours (TWh).



Tables A.23 – A.26: Total final consumption and consumption by sector (industry,transport and buildings) in exajoules (EJ).



Tables A.27 – A.28: Hydrogen demand (PJ) and the low-emissions hydrogen balance inmillion tonnes of hydrogen equivalent (Mt H2 equivalent).



Tables A.29 – A.31: Total carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, electricity and heat sectors
CO₂ emissions, final consumption in million tonnes of CO₂ emissions (Mt CO₂).

Tables A.6 to A.31 cover: World, North America, United States, Central and South America,
Brazil, Europe, European Union, Africa, Middle East, Eurasia, Russia, Asia Pacific, China, India,
Japan and Southeast Asia.
The definitions for regions, fuels and sectors are in Annex C.

Annex A | Tables for scenario projections259

Abbreviations/acronyms used in the tables include: CAAGR = compound average annual
growth rate; CCUS = carbon capture, utilisation and storage; EJ = exajoule; GJ = gigajoule;
GW = gigawatt; Mt CO₂ = million tonnes of carbon dioxide; TWh = terawatt-hour. Use of fossil
fuels in facilities without CCUS is classified as “unabated”.
Both in the text of this report and in these annex tables, rounding may lead to minor
differences between totals and the sum of their individual components. Growth rates arecalculated on a compound average annual basis and are marked “n.a.” when the base year
is zero or the value exceeds 200%. Nil values are marked “-”.
Box A.1 provides details on where to download the World Energy Outlook (WEO) tables in
Excel format. In addition, Box A.1 lists the links relating to the main WEO website,
documentation and methodology of the Global Energy and Climate Model, investment costs,
policy databases and recent WEO Special Reports.

Data sources
The Global Energy and Climate Model is a very data-intensive model covering the whole
global energy system. Detailed references on databases and publications used in themodelling and analysis may be found in Annex E.
The formal base year for this year’s projections is 2021, as this is the most recent year forwhich a complete picture of energy demand and production is available. However, we haveused more recent data wherever available, and we include our 2022 estimates for energy
production and demand in this annex. Estimates for the year 2022 are based on the IEA CO2Emissions in 2022 report in which data are derived from a number of sources, including thelatest monthly data submissions to the IEA Energy Data Centre, other statistical releases fromnational administrations, and recent market data from the IEA Market Report Series thatcover coal, oil, natural gas, renewables and power. Investment estimates include the year
2022 data, based on the IEA World Energy Investment 2023 report.
Historical data for gross power generation capacity (Table A.3) are drawn from the S&P
Global Market Intelligence World Electric Power Plants Database (March 2023 version) andthe International Atomic Energy Agency PRIS database.

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Definitional note: Energy supply and transformation tables
Total energy supply (TES) is equivalent to electricity and heat generation plus the otherenergy sector, excluding electricity, heat and hydrogen, plus total final consumption,
excluding electricity, heat and hydrogen. TES does not include ambient heat from heatpumps or electricity trade. Solar in TES includes solar PV generation, concentrating solar
power (CSP) and final consumption of solar thermal. Biofuels conversion losses are theconversion losses to produce biofuels (mainly from modern solid bioenergy) used in theenergy sector. Low‐emissions hydrogen production is merchant low‐emissions hydrogenproduction (excluding onsite production at industrial facilities and refineries), with inputs
referring to total fuel inputs and outputs to produce hydrogen. While not itemised
260

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

separately, geothermal and marine (tidal and wave) energy are included in the renewables
category of TES and electricity and heat sectors. While not itemised separately, nonrenewable waste and other sources are included in TES.

Definitional note: Energy demand tables
Sectors comprising total final consumption (TFC) include industry (energy use and feedstock),transport and buildings (residential, services and non-specified other). While not itemised
separately, agriculture and other non-energy use are included in TFC. While not itemised
separately, non-renewable waste, solar thermal and geothermal energy are included inbuildings, industry and TFC. Aviation and shipping include both domestic and internationalenergy demand. Energy demand from international marine and aviation bunkers areincluded in global transport totals and TFC.

Definitional note: Fossil fuel production and demand tables
Oil production and demand is expressed in million barrels per day (mb/d). Tight oil includes
tight crude oil and condensate production except for the United States, which includes tightcrude oil only (US tight condensate volumes are included in natural gas liquids). Processing
gains cover volume increases that occur during crude oil refining. Biofuels and their inclusion
in liquids demand is expressed in energy-equivalent volumes of gasoline and diesel. Natural
gas production and demand is expressed in billion cubic metres (bcm). Coal production anddemand is expressed in million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce). Differences between
historical production and demand volumes for oil, gas and coal are due to changes in stocks.
Bunkers include both international marine and aviation fuels. Refining capacity at risk isdefined as the difference between refinery capacity and refinery runs, with the latterincluding a 14% allowance for downtime. Projected shutdowns beyond those publicly
announced are also counted as capacity at risk.

Definitional note: Electricity tables

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Electricity generation expressed in terawatt-hours (TWh) and installed electrical capacity
data expressed in gigawatts (GW) are both provided on a gross basis, i.e. includes own use
by the generator. Projected gross electrical capacity is the sum of existing capacity andadditions, less retirements. While not itemised separately, other sources are included in total
electricity generation. Hydrogen and ammonia are fuels that can provide a low-emissions
alternative to natural gas- and coal-fired electricity generation – either through co-firing or
full conversion of facilities. Blending levels of hydrogen in gas-fired plants and ammonia incoal-fired plants are represented in the scenarios and reported in the tables. The electricity
generation outputs in the tables are based on fuel input shares, while the hydrogen andammonia capacity is derived based on a typical capacity factor.

Definitional note: CO2 emissions tables
Total CO2 includes carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels andnon-renewable wastes; from industrial and fuel transformation processes (process
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections

261

Aemissions); and from flaring and CO2 removal. CO2 removal includes: captured and stored
emissions from the combustion of bioenergy and renewable wastes; from biofuels
production; and from direct air capture. Aviation and shipping include both domestic andinternational emissions.
The first two entries are often reported as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage(BECCS). Note that some of the CO2 captured from biofuels production and direct air capture
is used to produce synthetic fuels, which is not included as CO2 removal.
Total CO2 captured includes the carbon dioxide captured from CCUS facilities, such as
electricity generation or industry, and atmospheric CO2 captured through direct air capture,but excludes that captured and used for urea production.

Definitional note: Economic and activity indicators
The emissions intensity expressed in grammes of carbon dioxide per kilowatt‐hour (g CO2 perkWh) is calculated based on electricity‐only plants and the electricity component of
combined heat and power (CHP) plants. 1 Primary chemicals include ethylene, propylene,
aromatics, methanol and ammonia. Industrial production data for aluminium excludes
production based on internally generated scrap. Heavy-duty trucks activity includes freightactivity of medium freight trucks and heavy freight trucks. Aviation activity includes both
domestic and international flight activity. Shipping activity refers to international shipping
activity.
Abbreviations used include: GDP = gross domestic product; GJ = gigajoule; m2 = square
metres; Mt = million tonnes; pkm = passenger‐kilometres; PPP = purchasing power parity;
tkm = tonnes‐kilometres.

Definitional note: Hydrogen tables

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Total hydrogen demand includes merchant (or offsite) hydrogen demand and hydrogen
demand in industry and refineries covered by onsite production. It also includes hydrogenused in the production of hydrogen-based fuels (ammonia, synthetic hydrocarbon fuels). The
hydrogen balance table A.28 is expressed in million tonnes of hydrogen equivalent, whichmeans for hydrogen-based fuels the equivalent mass of hydrogen that would contain theenergy content of these fuels. Hydrogen demand in end-use sectors includes total final
consumption of hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels as well as hydrogen demand in industry
covered by onsite production within industrial facilities. Low-emissions hydrogen trade as ashare of production represents the percentage of produced low-emissions hydrogen(including merchant hydrogen and that which is produced onsite in industry and refining)which is exported from the region as hydrogen or as an energy product.

To derive the associated electricity‐only emissions from CHP plants, we assume that the heat production of
a CHP plant is 90% efficient and the remainder of the fuel input is allocated to electricity generation.

1

262

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A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections

263

Energy supply: World
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Table A.1a: World energy supply

28

Energy supply: World

Stated Policies Scenario (EJ)CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

Total energy supply

541

624

632

668

678

692

725

100

100

100

0.7

0.5

Renewables

43

71

75

120

150

178

227

12

18

31

6.0

4.0

Solar

1

5

7

23

35

49

70

1

3

10

17

8.8

Wind

1

7

8

19

27

33

42

1

3

6

12

6.3

Hydro

12

15

16

18

19

20

23

2

3

3

1.6

1.3

Modern solid bioenergy

23

33

35

44

48

51

57

6

7

8

3.0

1.7

Modern liquid bioenergy

2

4

4

6

7

8

9

1

1

1

4.4

2.7

Modern gaseous bioenergy

1

1

1

2

3

5

8

0

0

1

7.7

6.7

25

24

24

19

18

18

16

4

3

2

-3.0

-1.4

Traditional use of biomass
Nuclear

30

31

29

37

40

43

48

5

6

7

2.9

1.8

Unabated natural gas

115

146

144

148

145

143

142

23

22

20

0.3

-0.0

Natural gas with CCUS
Oil
Non-energy use
Unabated coal

0

1

1

1

2

2

3

0

0

0

10

6.2

173

182

187

195

191

187

186

30

29

26

0.5

-0.0

25

31

32

38

40

41

41

5

6

6

2.3

0.9

153

167

170

147

130

119

101

27

22

14

-1.8

-1.8

-

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

23

13

Electricity and heat sectors

200

244

247

263

275

291

321

100

100

100

0.8

0.9

Renewables

20

39

41

77

102

126

166

17

29

52

8.0

5.1

Solar PV

0

4

5

19

31

43

62

2

7

19

20

9.7

Wind

1

7

8

19

27

33

42

3

7

13

12

6.3

Hydro

12

15

16

18

19

20

23

6

7

7

1.6

1.3

Bioenergy

4

9

9

14

16

17

21

4

5

6

4.8

2.9

-

-

-

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.
n.a.

Coal with CCUS

HydrogenAmmonia

-

-

-

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

n.a.

Nuclear

30

31

29

37

40

43

48

12

14

15

2.9

1.8

Unabated natural gas

47

57

57

55

51

49

49

23

21

15

-0.5

-0.6

Natural gas with CCUS

-

-

-

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Oil

11

8

8

5

4

4

3

3

2

1

-5.1

-3.3

Unabated coal

91

108

110

89

75

66

52

45

34

16

-2.7

-2.6

Coal with CCUS

-

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

29

15

50

64

65

68

69

69

73

100

100

100

0.7

0.4

-

5

6

8

8

9

10

100

100

100

3.6

1.9

Production inputs

-

0

0

1

2

3

4

100

100

100

n.a.

n.a.

Production outputs

-

0

0

1

1

2

3

100

100

100

83

25

-

-

-

0

0

1

1

-

27

29

n.a.

n.a.

Other energy sector
Biofuels conversion losses
Low-emissions hydrogen (offsite)

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

For hydrogen-based fuels

264

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Total final consumption: World
Back to contents page

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Table A.2a: World final energy consumption

28

Total final consumption: World

Stated Policies Scenario (EJ)
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

Total final consumption

383

436

442

482

496

509

536

100

100

100

1.1

0.7

Electricity

64

87

89

108

121

135

159

20

22

30

2.5

2.1

Liquid fuels

154

168

172

186

184

183

185

39

39

34

0.9

0.2

Biofuels

2

4

4

6

7

8

9

1

1

2

4.4

2.7

Ammonia

-

-

-

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

2050

n.a.

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

n.a.

Oil

151

164

168

180

177

175

176

38

37

33

0.8

0.2

Gaseous fuels

58

72

71

78

80

82

85

16

16

16

1.2

0.6
11

Synthetic oil

Biomethane

0

0

0

1

1

2

4

0

0

1

13

Hydrogen

-

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

0

58

22

Synthetic methane

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

n.a.

n.a.

Natural gas

57

72

70

76

78

79

78

16

16

15

1.1

0.4

95

92

93

90

88

87

84

21

19

16

-0.4

-0.3

Solid bioenergy

38

39

40

38

39

39

40

9

8

7

-0.6

-0.0

Coal

56

52

52

51

49

47

44

12

11

8

-0.2

-0.6

Heat

12

15

15

16

16

16

16

3

3

3

1.1

0.3

Industry

143

167

167

187

194

201

207

100

100

100

1.4

0.8

Electricity

27

37

38

44

47

50

56

23

23

27

1.8

1.4

Liquid fuels

29

33

32

39

41

42

43

19

21

21

2.4

1.0

Oil

29

33

32

39

41

42

43

19

21

21

2.4

1.0

Gaseous fuels

24

31

30

34

36

38

39

18

18

19

1.6

1.0

Biomethane

0

0

0

0

0

1

2

0

0

1

16

12

Hydrogen

-

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

61

20

Unabated natural gas

24

31

30

34

35

36

37

18

18

18

1.5

0.7

Natural gas with CCUS

-

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

11

8.5

58

58

59

62

62

62

60

35

33

29

0.6

0.1

Solid fuels

Solid fuels
Modern solid bioenergy

8

10

11

13

14

15

17

7

7

8

2.2

1.5

Unabated coal

49

47

47

48

47

46

43

28

26

21

0.2

-0.4

-

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

9.7

7.2

Heat

5

7

7

8

8

8

8

4

4

4

1.0

0.3

Chemicals

38

48

48

57

60

62

63

29

31

31

2.2

1.0

Iron and steel

31

37

35

36

37

37

37

21

20

18

0.5

0.1

Cement

9

12

12

12

12

12

12

7

7

6

0.4

0.0

Aluminium

5

7

7

7

7

7

7

4

4

3

0.5

-0.0

Coal with CCUS

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections

265

Total final consumption:

Table(continued)
Table A.2a:
A.2a: World
World final
final energy
energy comsumption
consumption (continued)
Total final consumption: World

Stated Policies Scenario (EJ)
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

Transport

102

112

116

127

129

131

139

100

100

100

1.1

0.6

Electricity

1

1

2

5

8

11

15

1

4

11

15

8.6

Liquid fuels

97

106

110

117

115

114

117

94

92

84

0.8

0.2

Biofuels

2

4

4

6

7

7

8

4

5

6

4.3

2.6

Oil

95

102

105

111

108

106

108

91

87

78

0.6

0.1

Gaseous fuels

4

5

5

6

6

7

7

5

5

5

1.1

1.1

Biomethane

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

0

9.7

7.4

Hydrogen

-

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

1

57

22

Natural gas

4

5

5

5

6

6

5

4

4

4

0.6

0.2

Road
Passenger cars
Heavy-duty trucks

76

87

89

93

92

92

94

76

73

68

0.6

0.2

38

44

45

43

41

40

38

38

34

28

-0.4

-0.5

21

26

27

31

33

35

39

23

25

28

2.0

1.4

Aviation

11

9

11

17

19

20

24

10

13

17

5.5

2.7

Shipping

10

11

11

12

13

13

16

10

10

11

1.0

1.2

Buildings

117

131

133

139

142

147

159

100

100

100

0.6

0.7

Electricity

35

45

46

55

62

68

80

35

40

50

2.3

2.0

Liquid fuels

13

13

13

12

10

9

9

10

9

5

-1.3

-1.5

Biofuels

-

-

-

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Oil

13

13

13

12

10

9

9

10

9

5

-1.4

-1.5

Gaseous fuels

0.2

27

31

31

33

33

32

32

23

24

20

0.7

Biomethane

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

0

0

1

14

11

Hydrogen

-

-

-

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Natural gas

26

31

30

32

32

31

30

23

23

19

0.6

-0.0

35

32

32

26

25

24

23

24

19

14

-2.5

-1.3

Modern solid bioenergy

4

4

4

5

5

5

6

3

4

4

2.5

1.2

Traditional use of biomass

25

24

24

19

18

18

16

18

14

10

-3.0

-1.4

Solid fuels

Coal

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

6

4

4

2

1

1

0

3

2

0

-7.2

-8.6

Heat

6

7

7

8

8

8

8

5

6

5

1.3

0.4

Residential

83

93

93

94

96

98

106

71

68

67

0.0

0.4

Services

34

38

39

45

47

49

53

29

32

33

1.7

1.1

266

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Electricity sector: World
Back to contents page

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Table A.3a:
A.3a: World
World electricity
electricity sector
sector
Table

28

Electricity sector: World

Stated Policies Scenario (TWh)
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

Total generation

21 53328 34629 03335 80240 49445 41853 985

100

100

100

2.7

2.2

Renewables

4 209

7 964

8 599

16 91523 05128 72137 973

30

47

70

8.8

5.4

Solar PV

32

1 023

1 291

5 405

8 657

11 96117 220

4

15

32

20

9.7

Wind

342

1 865

2 125

5 229

7 502

9 275

11 801

7

15

22

12

6.3

Hydro

3 456

4 299

4 378

4 981

5 293

5 554

6 351

15

14

12

1.6

1.3

309

666

687

1 073

1 241

1 410

1 746

2

3

3

5.7

3.4

-

-

-

4

5

5

5

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

CSP

2

15

16

46

91

161

322

0

0

1

14

11

Geothermal

68

96

101

175

247

317

439

0

0

1

7.1

5.4

Bioenergyof which BECCS

MarineNuclear

2050

1

1

1

6

20

44

93

0

0

0

24

18

2 756

2 810

2 682

3 351

3 665

3 886

4 353

9

9

8

2.8

1.7

Hydrogen and ammonia

-

-

-

22

59

82

91

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Fossil fuels with CCUS

-

1

1

7

30

59

90

0

0

0

33

19

Coal with CCUS

-

1

1

4

14

22

29

0

0

0

25

14

Natural gas with CCUS

-

-

-

3

16

37

61

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Unabated fossil fuels

14 47917 456

17 63615 406

13 59312 568

11 373

61

43

21

-1.7

-1.6

Coal

8 669

10 247

10 427

8 333

6 973

6 145

4 949

36

23

9

-2.8

-2.6

Natural gas

4 847

6 526

6 500

6 611

6 222

6 067

6 150

22

18

11

0.2

-0.2

963

683

709

462

398

356

274

2

1

1

-5.2

-3.3

Oil

Stated Policies Scenario (GW)CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

Total capacity

5 187

8 230

8 643

14 16817 92321 32825 956

100

100

100

6.4

4.0

Renewables

1 333

3 292

3 629

8 611

11 94914 96519 120

42

61

74

11

6.1

Solar PV

39

925

1 145

4 699

7 174

9 500

12 639

13

33

49

19

9.0

Wind

181

827

902

2 064

2 747

3 242

3 874

10

15

15

11

5.3

Hydro

1 027

1 360

1 392

1 571

1 681

1 801

2 028

16

11

8

1.5

1.4

74

159

168

232

272

311

393

2

2

2

4.1

3.1

-

-

-

1

1

1

1

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Bioenergyof which BECCS

2050

CSP

1

6

7

16

29

46

85

0

0

0

11

9.4

Geothermal

10

15

15

27

37

47

63

0

0

0

7.4

5.3

Marine

0

1

1

3

9

18

36

0

0

0

17

15

403

413

417

482

521

557

622

5

3

2

1.8

1.4

NuclearHydrogen and ammonia

-

-

-

8

17

24

19

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Fossil fuels with CCUS

-

0

0

2

12

22

31

0

0

0

41

22

Coal with CCUS

-

0

0

1

6

11

13

0

0

0

32

18

Natural gas with CCUS

-

-

-

1

6

11

18

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Unabated fossil fuels

3 439

4 480

4 535

4 498

4 364

4 216

3 800

52

32

15

-0.1

-0.6

Coal

1 614

2 200

2 236

2 126

1 956

1 795

1 363

26

15

5

-0.6

-1.8

Natural gas

1 389

1 854

1 875

2 071

2 139

2 185

2 259

22

15

9

1.2

0.7

436

426

423

301

269

236

178

5

2

1

-4.2

-3.0

1

27

45

552

1 047

1 531

2 352

1

4

9

37

15

Oil
Battery storage

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections

267

CO₂ emissions: World
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Table A.4a:
A.4a: World
World CO22 emissions
Table

STEPS 828

CO₂ emissions: WorldCAAGR (%)
2022 to:Stated Policies Scenario (Mt CO₂)
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2030

Total CO₂*

32 87736 58936 93035 12533 09431 65729 696-0.6

n.a.

Combustion activities (+)

30 62433 63434 04232 16230 14128 70826 782

-0.7

-0.9

Coal

13 84615 10415 33013 076

11 594

10 548

8 861

-2.0

-1.9

Oil

10 545

10 68310 963

11 155

10 773

10 483

10 3780.2-0.2

Natural gas

6 052

7 577

7 499

7 705

7 563

7 467

7 339

0.3

-0.1

181

269

251

227

211

210

204

-1.2

-0.7

Other removals** (-)

-

1

2

21

32

45

80

37

15

Biofuels production

-

1

2

2

3

3

3

5.1

1.6

Bioenergy and waste

Direct air capture

2050

-

-

-

18

29

43

77

n.a.

n.a.

Electricity and heat sectors

12 511

14 59814 82212 30210 729

9 696

8 217

-2.3

-2.1

Coal

8 946

10 646

10 876

8 709

7 395

6 495

5 126

-2.7

-2.7

Oil

828

574

596

393

338

301

230

-5.1

-3.3

2 623

3 227

3 201

3 071

2 878

2 779

2 734

-0.5

-0.6

Bioenergy and waste

114

151

149

129

119

122

126

-1.8

-0.6

Other energy sector**

1 438

1 530

1 554

1 640

1 602

1 577

1 545

0.7

-0.0

Final consumption**

18 66820 19120 29321 04620 68620 36319 950

0.5

-0.1

Coal

4 699

4 355

4 352

4 263

4 100

3 958

3 646

-0.3

-0.6

Oil

9 087

9 552

9 815

10 206

9 903

9 672

9 669

0.5

-0.1

Natural gas

2 842

3 566

3 500

3 788

3 855

3 877

3 804

1.0

0.3

66

118

102

98

93

88

78

-0.4

-0.9
0.1

Natural gas

Bioenergy and waste
Industry**

8 324

9 185

8 998

9 540

9 602

9 583

9 225

0.7

Chemicals**

1 201

1 329

1 330

1 461

1 472

1 458

1 378

1.2

0.1

Iron and steel**

2 083

2 733

2 623

2 685

2 675

2 650

2 547

0.3

-0.1

Cement**

1 916

2 514

2 418

2 522

2 547

2 556

2 498

0.5

0.1

Aluminium**

185

261

265

275

272

270

245

0.4

-0.3

Transport

7 014

7 599

7 874

8 282

8 092

7 954

8 060

0.6

0.1

Road

5 216

5 847

5 964

5 940

5 629

5 369

5 165

-0.0

-0.5

Passenger cars

2 609

2 930

2 975

2 716

2 414

2 177

1 935

-1.1

-1.5

Heavy-duty trucks

1 489

1 766

1 812

2 050

2 128

2 203

2 342

1.6

0.9

Aviation

754

661

792

1 195

1 313

1 415

1 583

5.3

2.5

Shipping

797

827

855

904

917

943

1 098

0.7

0.9

2 891

2 973

2 979

2 802

2 580

2 427

2 307

-0.8

-0.9

Residential

1 961

2 013

1 997

1 791

1 638

1 526

1 402

-1.4

-1.3

Services

929

959

983

1 012

942

901

905

0.4

-0.3

Total CO₂ removals**

-

2

2

24

37

51

89

39

15

Total CO₂ captured**

15

41

42

116

197

276

401

14

8.4

Buildings*Includes industrial process and flaring emissions.

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

**Includes industrial process emissions.

268

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Indicators and activity: World
Back to contents page

STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

STEPS 8

Table A.5a: World economic and activity indicators

28

Indicators and activity: WorldCAAGR (%)
2022 to:Stated Policies Scenario
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2030

2050

Indicators
Population (million)

6 967

7 884

7 950

8 520

8 853

9 161

9 681

0.9

0.7

GDP (USD 2022 billion, PPP)

114 463

158 505

163 734

207 282

238 066

270 050339 273

3.0

2.6

GDP per capita (USD 2022, PPP)

16 42920 10420 59624 32926 89229 47935 044

2.1

1.9

TES/GDP (GJ per USD 1 000, PPP)

4.7

3.9

3.9

3.2

2.9

2.6

2.1

-2.2

-2.1

TFC/GDP (GJ per USD 1 000, PPP)

3.2

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.5

-1.8

-1.8

CO₂ intensity of electricity
generation (g CO₂ per kWh)

528

464

460

303

230

184

131

-5.1

-4.4

Industrial production (Mt)
515

713

719

877

941

989

1 047

2.5

1.3

Steel

Primary chemicals

1 435

1 960

1 878

2 074

2 173

2 270

2 448

1.3

1.0

Cement

3 280

4 374

4 158

4 471

4 628

4 746

4 846

0.9

0.5

Aluminium

62

105

108

123

133

145

165

1.7

1.5

Passenger cars (billion pkm)

18 98425 67926 53531 80435 82739 76046 411

2.3

2.0

Heavy-duty trucks (billion tkm)

23 36429 48230 47938 97744 34449 99161 107

3.1

2.5

Aviation (billion pkm)

4 923

3 673

6 025

12 19813 97316 06120 3889.2

4.4

Shipping (billion tkm)

77 101

115 830

124 272

148 064

170 250

196 465279 868

2.2

2.9

Transport

Buildings

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Households (million)

1 798

2 175

2 208

2 439

2 579

2 715

2 963

1.2

1.1

Residential floor area (million m²)

153 219

194 691

198 090

227 039

247 262

268 130

310 109

1.7

1.6

Services floor area (million m²)

39 26253 41554 62463 89169 19774 14382 7642.0

1.5

AAnnex A | Tables for scenario projections

269

Energy supply:
STEPS

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APS

APS

APS

APS

8

Table A.1b: World energy supply

28

Energy supply:

Announced Pledges Scenario (EJ)CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

Total energy supply

541

624

632

628

613

612

623

100

100

100

-0.1

-0.1

Renewables

43

71

75

142

195

245

327

12

23

52

8.2

5.4

Solar

1

5

7

27

48

70

106

1

4

17

19

10

Wind

1

7

8

22

34

46

66

1

4

11

14

8.0

Hydro

12

15

16

18

20

23

27

2

3

4

1.9

1.9

Modern solid bioenergy

23

33

35

51

59

65

74

6

8

12

4.8

2.7

Modern liquid bioenergy

2

4

4

9

12

14

14

1

2

2

11

4.3

Modern gaseous bioenergy

1

1

1

4

6

8

13

0

1

2

16

8.4
-5.6

Traditional use of biomass

25

24

24

8

7

6

5

4

1

1

-13

Nuclear

30

31

29

38

45

52

59

5

6

9

3.4

2.5

Unabated natural gas

115

146

144

130

111

96

71

23

21

11

-1.2

-2.5

Natural gas with CCUS
Oil
Non-energy use
Unabated coal

0

1

1

3

6

8

13

0

1

2

26

12

173

182

187

177

155

133

102

30

28

16

-0.7

-2.1

25

31

32

36

36

36

34

5

6

6

1.7

0.3

153

167

170

127

89

64

34

27

20

5

-3.6

-5.6

-

0

0

0

4

6

11

0

0

2

47

26

Electricity and heat sectors

200

244

247

258

273

306

366

100

100

100

0.5

1.4

Renewables

20

39

41

88

130

174

248

17

34

68

9.9

6.6

Solar PV

0

4

5

23

40

59

87

2

9

24

22

11

Wind

1

7

8

22

34

46

66

3

9

18

14

8.0

Hydro

12

15

16

18

20

23

27

6

7

7

1.9

1.9

Bioenergy

4

9

9

16

21

26

34

4

6

9

7.0

4.7

-

-

-

0

1

2

3

-

0

1

n.a.

n.a.
n.a.

Coal with CCUS

HydrogenAmmonia

-

-

-

0

0

1

2

-

0

0

n.a.

Nuclear

30

31

29

38

45

52

59

12

15

16

3.4

2.5

Unabated natural gas

47

57

57

50

41

35

25

23

19

7

-1.7

-2.9

Natural gas with CCUS

-

-

-

0

1

1

2

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Oil

11

8

8

4

3

2

2

3

2

0

-7.8

-5.3

Unabated coal

91

108

110

75

48

33

17

45

29

5

-4.7

-6.4

Coal with CCUS

-

0

0

0

3

4

7

0

0

2

57

29

Other energy sector

50

64

65

65

65

66

72

100

100

100

0.1

0.4

Biofuels conversion losses

-

5

6

12

16

18

17

100

100

100

9.8

4.0

Production inputs

-

0

0

4

9

15

32

100

100

100

n.a.

n.a.

Production outputs

-

0

0

2

6

11

23

100

100

100

116

35

-

-

-

1

2

4

10

-

27

46

n.a.

n.a.

Low-emissions hydrogen (offsite)

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

For hydrogen-based fuels

270International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Total final consumption:
STEPS

STEPS

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APS

APS

APS

APS

8

Table A.2b: World final energy consumption

28

Total final consumption: World

Announced Pledges Scenario (EJ)
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

Total final consumption

383

436

442

451

442

433

429

100

100

100

0.2

-0.1

Electricity

64

87

89

109

125

143

176

20

24

41

2.6

2.5

Liquid fuels

154

168

172

175

160

143

118

39

39

28

0.2

-1.3

Biofuels

2

4

4

9

12

14

14

1

2

3

11

4.3

Ammonia

-

-

-

0

1

1

2

-

0

1

n.a.

n.a.

-

-

-

0

0

1

3

-

0

1

n.a.

n.a.

Oil

151

164

168

165

147

127

99

38

37

23

-0.2

-1.9

Gaseous fuels

Synthetic oil

58

72

71

71

67

64

61

16

16

14

-0.0

-0.5

Biomethane

0

0

0

2

3

4

6

0

0

1

26

12

Hydrogen

-

0

0

1

2

4

10

0

0

2

86

31

Synthetic methane

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

n.a.

n.a.

57

72

70

67

61

54

44

16

15

10

-0.5

-1.7

95

92

93

76

68

60

51

21

17

12

-2.5

-2.1

Solid bioenergy

38

39

40

30

30

30

31

9

7

7

-3.4

-0.9

Coal

56

52

52

45

37

30

19

12

10

4

-1.8

-3.5

Heat

12

15

15

15

14

13

11

3

3

3

0.1

-1.1

Industry

143

167

167

179

180

179

175

100

100

100

0.9

0.2

Electricity

27

37

38

47

53

60

71

23

26

40

2.7

2.3
-0.2

Natural gas
Solid fuels

Liquid fuels

29

33

32

36

36

34

31

19

20

18

1.4

Oil

29

33

32

36

35

33

30

19

20

17

1.3

-0.3

Gaseous fuels

24

31

30

31

31

31

28

18

17

16

0.4

-0.2

Biomethane

0

0

0

1

1

2

3

0

0

2

29

13

Hydrogen

-

0

0

0

1

2

3

0

0

2

95

33

Unabated natural gas

24

31

30

30

28

26

20

18

17

11

0.0

-1.4

Natural gas with CCUS

-

0

0

0

1

1

3

0

0

2

23

16

58

58

59

57

52

47

39

35

32

22

-0.3

-1.5

Modern solid bioenergy

8

10

11

14

16

17

19

7

8

11

3.1

2.0

Unabated coal

49

47

47

43

35

28

15

28

24

9

-1.3

-3.9

Solid fuels

-

0

0

0

1

2

4

0

0

2

35

23

Heat

5

7

7

7

6

5

4

4

4

2

-0.8

-2.2

Chemicals

38

48

48

55

56

56

55

29

30

31

1.6

0.5

Iron and steel

31

37

35

35

34

33

31

21

20

17

-0.0

-0.5

Cement

9

12

12

12

12

12

11

7

7

6

-0.0

-0.2

Aluminium

5

7

7

7

7

7

6

4

4

3

0.2

-0.7

Coal with CCUS

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections271

Total final consumption:

Table A.2b: World final energy consumption (continued)
Total final consumption: World

Announced Pledges Scenario (EJ)
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

Transport

102

112

116

122

116

110

106

100

100

100

0.6

-0.3

Electricity

1

1

2

6

11

18

28

1

5

27

18

11

Liquid fuels

97

106

110

111

100

87

69

94

91

65

0.2

-1.7

Biofuels

2

4

4

9

11

12

12

4

7

11

10.0

3.9

Oil

95

102

105

102

88

73

51

91

84

48

-0.4

-2.6

Gaseous fuels

4

5

5

5

5

6

9

5

4

9

-0.6

1.9

Biomethane

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

16

5.8

Hydrogen

-

0

0

0

1

2

7

0

0

6

78

30

Natural gas

4

5

5

4

4

3

2

4

4

2

-2.2

-3.2

Road

76

87

89

88

82

76

69

76

73

65

-0.0

-0.9

Passenger cars

38

44

45

41

36

32

27

38

34

26

-1.0

-1.8

Heavy-duty trucks

0.3

21

26

27

30

30

29

29

23

24

27

1.2

Aviation

11

9

11

17

18

20

22

10

14

21

5.2

2.5

Shipping

10

11

11

12

11

10

11

10

10

10

0.4

-0.2

Buildings

117

131

133

122

119

117

122

100

100

100

-1.0

-0.3

Electricity

35

45

46

52

56

62

71

35

43

58

1.7

1.6

Liquid fuels

13

13

13

11

9

7

5

10

9

4

-2.2

-3.2

Biofuels

-

-

-

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Oil

13

13

13

11

9

7

5

10

9

4

-2.2

-3.2

Gaseous fuels

-1.7

27

31

31

30

26

23

19

23

24

15

-0.6

Biomethane

0

0

0

1

1

2

3

0

1

2

32

14

Hydrogen

-

-

-

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Natural gas

26

31

30

28

23

20

14

23

23

12

-1.0

-2.6

35

32

32

17

15

12

11

24

14

9

-7.6

-3.8

Modern solid bioenergy

4

4

4

7

7

6

6

3

6

5

7.0

1.2

Traditional use of biomass

25

24

24

8

7

6

5

18

7

4

-13

-5.6

Solid fuels

Coal

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

6

4

4

2

1

0

0

3

1

0

-10

-11

Heat

6

7

7

8

8

7

7

5

6

6

0.9

-0.2

Residential

83

93

93

81

78

76

79

71

66

64

-1.8

-0.6

Services

34

38

39

42

41

41

44

29

34

36

0.8

0.4

272

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Electricity sector:
STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

APS

APS

APS

APS

8

Table A.3b: World electricity sector

28

Electricity sector:

Announced Pledges Scenario (TWh)
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

Total generation

21 53328 34629 03336 37042 93351 71066 760

100

100

100

2.9

3.0

Renewables

4 209

7 964

8 599

19 29528 79538 55155 057

30

53

82

11

6.9

Solar PV

32

1 023

1 291

6 390

11 240

16 29624 297

4

18

36

22

11

Wind

342

1 865

2 125

6 208

9 524

12 70118 432

7

17

28

14

8.0

Hydro

3 456

4 299

4 378

5 071

5 653

6 284

7 432

15

14

11

1.9

1.9

309

666

687

1 314

1 736

2 184

3 005

2

4

5

8.4

5.4

-

-

-

32

158

302

538

-

0

1

n.a.

n.a.

CSP

2

15

16

84

278

581

1 101

0

0

2

23

16

Geothermal

68

96

101

217

335

448

677

0

1

1

10.0

7.0

Bioenergyof which BECCS

MarineNuclear

2050

1

1

1

11

29

56

113

0

0

0

36

18

2 756

2 810

2 682

3 496

4 086

4 701

5 301

9

10

8

3.4

2.5
n.a.

Hydrogen and ammonia

-

-

-

78

229

344

606

-

0

1

n.a.

Fossil fuels with CCUS

-

1

1

48

328

566

949

0

0

1

70

29

Coal with CCUS

-

1

1

22

236

409

710

0

0

1

54

28

-

-

-

27

92

157

239

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

14 47917 456

17 63613 356

9 407

7 458

4 759

61

37

7

-3.4

-4.6

Coal

8 669

10 247

10 427

6 976

4 249

2 932

1 534

36

19

2

-4.9

-6.6

Natural gas

4 847

6 526

6 500

6 028

4 896

4 314

3 080

22

17

5

-0.9

-2.6

963

683

709

352

262

212

144

2

1

0

-8.4

-5.5

Natural gas with CCUS
Unabated fossil fuels

Oil

Announced Pledges Scenario (GW)CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

Total capacity

5 187

8 230

8 643

15 28520 33225 19532 100

100

100

100

7.4

4.8

Renewables

1 333

3 292

3 629

9 786

14 42618 89325 368

42

64

79

13

7.2

Solar PV

39

925

1 145

5 377

8 648

11 78716 041

13

35

50

21

9.9

Wind

181

827

902

2 420

3 418

4 337

5 879

10

16

18

13

6.9

Hydro

1 027

1 360

1 392

1 620

1 804

1 991

2 304

16

11

7

1.9

1.8

74

159

168

300

407

524

706

2

2

2

7.6

5.3

-

-

-

8

32

56

94

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Bioenergyof which BECCS

2050

CSP

1

6

7

29

86

165

295

0

0

1

19

14

Geothermal

10

15

15

34

51

67

100

0

0

0

11

7.0

MarineNuclear

0

1

1

5

12

23

44

0

0

0

27

15

403

413

417

497

587

677

769

5

3

2

2.2

2.2
n.a.

Hydrogen and ammonia

-

-

-

31

134

174

195

-

0

1

n.a.

Fossil fuels with CCUS

-

0

0

8

71

121

206

0

0

1

70

30

Coal with CCUS

-

0

0

4

50

88

153

0

0

0

53

29

-

-

-

5

21

34

53

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

3 439

4 480

4 535

4 225

3 725

3 289

2 432

52

28

8

-0.9

-2.2

Coal

1 614

2 200

2 236

2 036

1 749

1 474

911

26

13

3

-1.2

-3.2

Natural gas

1 389

1 854

1 875

1 905

1 743

1 613

1 371

22

12

4

0.2

-1.1

436

426

423

283

234

202

150

5

2

0

-4.9

-3.6

1

27

45

725

1 377

2 029

3 121

1

5

10

41

16

Natural gas with CCUS
Unabated fossil fuels

Oil
Battery storage

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections

273

CO₂ emissions:
STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

APS

APS

APS

APS

Table A.4b: World CO22 emissions

828

CO₂ emissions:

Announced Pledges Scenario (Mt CO₂)CAAGR (%)
2022 to:

2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2030

Total CO₂*

32 87736 58936 93030 76924 28919 21712 043-2.3

n.a.

Combustion activities (+)

30 62433 63434 04228 11521 96617 375

10 968

-2.4

-4.0

Coal

13 84615 10415 33011 174

7 711

5 626

2 967

-3.9

-5.7

Oil

10 545

10 68310 96310 004

8 491

6 969

4 852

-1.1

-2.9

Natural gas

6 052

7 577

7 499

6 764

5 725

4 884

3 516

-1.3

-2.7

181

269

251

173

39

- 104

- 368

-4.5

n.a.

Other removals** (-)

-

1

2

100

158

256

345

67

21

Biofuels production

-

1

2

78

130

220

284

62

20

Bioenergy and waste

Direct air capture

2050

-

-

-

22

28

36

61

n.a.

n.a.

Electricity and heat sectors

12 511

14 59814 822

10 597

7 197

5 352

3 004

-4.1

-5.5

Coal

8 946

10 646

10 876

7 388

4 677

3 278

1 712

-4.7

-6.4

Oil

828

574

596

310

234

190

128

-7.8

-5.3

2 623

3 227

3 201

2 797

2 286

1 982

1 427

-1.7

-2.8

Bioenergy and waste

114

151

149

102

-0

- 98

- 263

-4.7

n.a.

Other energy sector**

1 438

1 530

1 554

1 215

898

539

121

-3.0

-8.7

Final consumption**

18 66820 19120 29318 87616 15513 324

8 952

-0.9

-2.9

Coal

4 699

4 355

4 352

3 695

2 958

2 292

1 238

-2.0

-4.4

Oil

9 087

9 552

9 815

9 279

7 937

6 544

4 593

-0.7

-2.7

Natural gas

2 842

3 566

3 500

3 306

2 908

2 496

1 824

-0.7

-2.3

66

118

102

72

40

-5

- 97

-4.3

n.a.

8 324

9 185

8 998

8 500

7 398

6 138

3 826

-0.7

-3.0

Chemicals**

1 201

1 329

1 330

1 289

1 130

909

501

-0.4

-3.4

Iron and steel**

2 083

2 733

2 623

2 474

2 153

1 805

1 119

-0.7

-3.0

Cement**

1 916

2 514

2 418

2 299

2 041

1 716

1 143

-0.6

-2.6

Aluminium**

185

261

265

253

226

173

63

-0.6

-5.0

Transport

7 014

7 599

7 874

7 555

6 505

5 370

3 786

-0.5

-2.6

Road

5 216

5 847

5 964

5 423

4 539

3 594

2 337

-1.2

-3.3

Passenger cars

2 609

2 930

2 975

2 466

1 902

1 404

844

-2.3

-4.4

Heavy-duty trucks

1 489

1 766

1 812

1 864

1 738

1 508

1 078

0.4

-1.8

Aviation

754

661

792

1 129

1 131

1 097

979

4.5

0.8

Shipping

797

827

855

803

670

543

384

-0.8

-2.8

Natural gas

Bioenergy and waste
Industry**

Buildings

2 891

2 973

2 979

2 475

1 963

1 578

1 176

-2.3

-3.3

Residential

1 961

2 013

1 997

1 605

1 260

990

683

-2.7

-3.8

Services

929

959

983

869

702

587

493

-1.5

-2.4

Total CO₂ removals**

-

2

2

128

289

517

848

72

25

Total CO₂ captured**

15

41

42

441

1 178

2 061

3 730

34

17

*Includes industrial process and flaring emissions.

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

**Includes industrial process emissions.

274

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Indicators and activity:
STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

APS

APS

APS

APS

8

Table A.5b: World economic and activity indicators

28

Indicators and activity:

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Announced Pledges Scenario
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2030

2050

Indicators
Population (million)

6 967

7 884

7 950

8 520

8 853

9 161

9 681

0.9

0.7

GDP (USD 2022 billion, PPP)

114 463

158 505

163 734

207 282

238 066

270 050339 273

3.0

2.6

GDP per capita (USD 2022, PPP)

16 42920 10420 59624 32926 89229 47935 044

2.1

1.9

TES/GDP (GJ per USD 1 000, PPP)

4.7

3.9

3.9

3.0

2.6

2.3

1.8

-3.0

-2.6

TFC/GDP (GJ per USD 1 000, PPP)

3.2

2.6

2.6

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.2

-2.6

-2.6

CO₂ intensity of electricity
generation (g CO₂ per kWh)

528

464

460

255

143

87

36

-7.1

-8.7

Industrial production (Mt)Primary chemicals

515

713

719

854

902

933

952

2.2

1.0

Steel

1 435

1 960

1 878

2 030

2 058

2 081

2 123

1.0

0.4

Cement

3 280

4 374

4 158

4 375

4 407

4 400

4 393

0.6

0.2

Aluminium

62

105

108

122

129

136

149

1.5

1.2

Passenger cars (billion pkm)

18 98425 67926 53531 17434 39937 98844 9002.0

1.9

Heavy-duty trucks (billion tkm)

23 36429 48230 47938 19843 50449 21860 5782.9

2.5

Aviation (billion pkm)

4 923

3 673

6 025

12 097

13 78315 89020 313

9.1

4.4

Shipping (billion tkm)

77 101

115 830

124 272

147 948

170 108

196 295

279 885

2.2

2.9

Transport

Buildings

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Households (million)

1 798

2 175

2 208

2 439

2 579

2 715

2 963

1.2

1.1

Residential floor area (million m²)

153 219

194 691

198 090

227 039

247 262

268 130

310 109

1.7

1.6

Services floor area (million m²)

39 26253 41554 62463 89169 19774 14382 7642.0

1.5

AAnnex A | Tables for scenario projections

275

Energy supply:
STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

NZE

NZE

NZE

NZE

8

Table A.1c: World energy supply

28

Energy supply:

Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (EJ)CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

Total energy supply

541

624

632

573

535

528

541

100

100

100

-1.2

-0.6

Renewables

43

71

75

166

241

306

385

12

29

71

10

6.0

Solar

1

5

7

35

66

97

138

1

6

26

23

11

Wind

1

7

8

25

43

61

84

1

4

16

16

9.0

Hydro

12

15

16

20

24

27

30

2

3

5

2.9

2.3

Modern solid bioenergy

23

33

35

55

65

71

73

6

10

13

5.8

2.6

Modern liquid bioenergy

2

4

4

11

13

13

11

1

2

2

13

3.3

Modern gaseous bioenergy

1

1

1

7

9

11

15

0

1

3

22

9.0

25

24

24

-

-

-

-

4

-

-

n.a.

n.a.

Traditional use of biomass
Nuclear

30

31

29

43

55

63

67

5

8

12

5.0

3.0

Unabated natural gas

115

146

144

113

68

40

14

23

20

3

-3.0

-8.1

Natural gas with CCUS
Oil

0

1

1

6

9

13

18

0

1

3

35

13

173

182

187

148

110

79

42

30

26

8

-2.8

-5.2

25

31

32

35

34

33

30

5

6

6

1.3

-0.1

Unabated coal

153

167

170

93

43

16

3

27

16

1

-7.3

-14

Coal with CCUS

-

0

0

2

7

10

12

0

0

2

87

27

Electricity and heat sectors

200

244

247

256

277

319

393

100

100

100

0.4

1.7

Renewables

20

39

41

103

167

228

306

17

40

78

12

7.4

Solar PV

0

4

5

29

56

80

112

2

11

29

26

12

Wind

1

7

8

25

43

61

84

3

10

21

16

9.0

Hydro

12

15

16

20

24

27

30

6

8

8

2.9

2.3

Bioenergy

4

9

9

17

24

30

36

4

6

9

7.3

4.9

Hydrogen

-

-

-

2

4

5

6

-

1

2

n.a.

n.a.

Ammonia

-

-

-

1

2

2

2

-

0

1

n.a.

n.a.

Nuclear

30

31

29

43

55

63

67

12

17

17

5.0

3.0

Unabated natural gas

47

57

57

49

25

11

1

23

19

0

-1.7

-13

Non-energy use

Natural gas with CCUS

-

-

-

0

2

2

3

-

0

1

n.a.

n.a.

Oil

11

8

8

2

1

0

0

3

1

0

-17

-23

Unabated coal

91

108

110

53

16

0

-

45

21

-

-8.9

n.a.

Coal with CCUS

-

0

0

2

5

6

7

0

1

2

102

29

50

64

65

64

64

70

78

100

100

100

-0.2

0.7

-

5

6

14

16

16

12

100

100

100

11

2.6

Production inputs

-

0

0

9

20

33

54

100

100

100

n.a.

n.a.

Production outputs

-

0

0

6

14

23

39

100

100

100

144

38

-

-

-

2

5

10

17

-

31

43

n.a.

n.a.

Other energy sector
Biofuels conversion losses
Low-emissions hydrogen (offsite)

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

For hydrogen-based fuels

276International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Total final consumption:
STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

NZE

NZE

NZE

NZE

8

Table A.2c: World final energy consumption

28

Total final consumption: WorldNet Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (EJ)
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

Total final consumption

383

436

442

406

379

360

343

100

100

100

-1.1

-0.9

Electricity

64

87

89

113

133

154

183

20

28

53

3.0

2.6

Liquid fuels

154

168

172

150

120

94

62

39

37

18

-1.7

-3.6

Biofuels

2

4

4

11

13

13

11

1

3

3

13

3.3

Ammonia

-

-

-

1

2

2

4

-

0

1

n.a.

n.a.

-

-

-

0

1

2

6

-

0

2

n.a.

n.a.

Oil

151

164

168

138

104

76

41

38

34

12

-2.4

-4.9

Gaseous fuels

Synthetic oil

58

72

71

61

52

45

41

16

15

12

-1.8

-2.0

Biomethane

0

0

0

4

6

6

8

0

1

2

42

13

Hydrogen

-

0

0

2

5

8

16

0

1

5

113

33

Synthetic methane

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

n.a.

n.a.

57

72

70

54

41

29

15

16

13

4

-3.2

-5.3

95

92

93

63

54

45

35

21

15

10

-4.8

-3.4

Solid bioenergy

38

39

40

24

26

26

28

9

6

8

-6.1

-1.2

Coal

56

52

52

38

27

18

7

12

9

2

-3.9

-6.9

Heat

12

15

15

12

11

9

6

3

3

2

-2.1

-3.2

Industry

143

167

167

175

173

169

159

100

100

100

0.6

-0.2

Electricity

27

37

38

52

62

70

79

23

30

49

4.2

2.7

Liquid fuels

29

33

32

34

32

29

24

19

19

15

0.7

-1.0

Oil

29

33

32

34

31

28

23

19

19

14

0.5

-1.2

Gaseous fuels

24

31

30

30

28

25

21

18

17

13

-0.1

-1.3

Biomethane

0

0

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

3

43

15

Hydrogen

-

0

0

1

2

4

5

0

1

3

137

36

Unabated natural gas

24

31

30

27

21

16

6

18

15

4

-1.5

-5.3

Natural gas
Solid fuels

-

0

0

1

2

3

5

0

1

3

46

18

58

58

59

52

45

38

29

35

30

18

-1.5

-2.5

Modern solid bioenergy

8

10

11

15

18

20

22

7

9

14

4.2

2.5

Unabated coal

49

47

47

36

24

15

2

28

20

1

-3.5

-10

Natural gas with CCUS
Solid fuels

-

0

0

1

2

4

5

0

0

3

71

25

Heat

5

7

7

5

4

3

1

4

3

1

-3.9

-6.1

Chemicals

38

48

48

54

55

55

51

29

31

32

1.6

0.2

Iron and steel

31

37

35

34

32

30

26

21

19

17

-0.6

-1.0

Cement

9

12

12

12

11

11

10

7

7

6

-0.4

-0.7

Aluminium

5

7

7

7

6

6

5

4

4

3

-0.4

-1.1

Coal with CCUS

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections277

Total final consumption:

Table A.2c: World final energy consumption (continued)
Total final consumption: WorldNet Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (EJ)
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

Transport

102

112

116

105

89

79

76

100

100

100

-1.3

-1.5

Electricity

1

1

2

8

15

25

38

1

8

51

23

12

Liquid fuels

97

106

110

92

69

49

26

94

88

35

-2.2

-5.0

Biofuels

2

4

4

10

12

11

8

4

10

11

12

2.6

Oil

95

102

105

81

55

33

8

91

77

10

-3.3

-8.9

Gaseous fuels

4

5

5

5

4

5

11

5

4

15

-1.9

2.7

Biomethane

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

18

5.1

Hydrogen

-

0

0

1

2

4

10

0

1

14

98

32

Natural gas

4

5

5

3

2

1

0

4

3

0

-5.6

-11

76

87

89

74

60

52

47

76

71

62

-2.2

-2.2

38

44

45

32

22

17

15

38

30

20

-4.1

-3.7
-0.8

Road
Passenger cars
Heavy-duty trucks

21

26

27

27

26

24

22

23

26

29

0.2

Aviation

11

9

11

15

14

14

15

10

14

20

3.5

1.2

Shipping

10

11

11

11

10

10

10

10

11

13

0.1

-0.4

Buildings

117

131

133

100

92

89

89

100

100

100

-3.4

-1.4

Electricity

35

45

46

48

51

55

62

35

48

70

0.5

1.1

Liquid fuels

13

13

13

9

5

3

1

10

9

1

-5.1

-8.5

Biofuels

-

-

-

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Oil

13

13

13

9

5

3

1

10

9

1

-5.2

-9.5

Gaseous fuels

-6.5

27

31

31

22

15

10

5

23

22

5

-4.1

Biomethane

0

0

0

2

3

3

3

0

2

3

53

14

Hydrogen

-

-

-

0

0

0

0

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Natural gas
Solid fuels

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

26

31

30

19

11

5

0

23

19

0

-5.8

-22

35

32

32

9

8

6

6

24

9

6

-14

-6.0

Modern solid bioenergy

4

4

4

8

8

6

6

3

8

6

8.4

1.0

Traditional use of biomass

25

24

24

-

-

-

-

18

-

-

n.a.

n.a.

Coal

6

4

4

1

0

0

0

3

1

0

-14

-26

Heat

6

7

7

7

6

6

5

5

7

5

-0.5

-1.7

Residential

83

93

93

65

59

57

58

71

65

65

-4.4

-1.7

Services

34

38

39

35

33

31

31

29

35

35

-1.3

-0.8

278

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Electricity sector:
STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

NZE

NZE

NZE

NZE

8

Table A.3c: World electricity sector

28

Electricity sector:

Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (TWh)
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

Total generation

21 53328 34629 03338 20747 42759 111

76 838

100

100

100

3.5

3.5

Renewables

4 209

7 964

8 599

22 53236 73950 45968 430

30

59

89

13

7.7

Solar PV

32

1 023

1 291

8 177

15 43922 24131 237

4

21

41

26

12

Wind

342

1 865

2 125

7 070

11 92316 82623 442

7

19

31

16

9.0

Hydro

3 456

4 299

4 378

5 507

6 530

7 435

8 225

15

14

11

2.9

2.3

309

666

687

1 313

1 885

2 396

3 056

2

3

4

8.4

5.5
n.a.

Bioenergy

2050

of which BECCS

-

-

-

65

300

471

644

-

0

1

n.a.

CSP

2

15

16

139

414

831

1 486

0

0

2

31

18

Geothermal

68

96

101

306

508

662

862

0

1

1

15

7.9

MarineNuclear

1

1

1

19

39

67

123

0

0

0

44

19

2 756

2 810

2 682

3 936

4 952

5 583

6 015

9

10

8

4.9

2.9

Hydrogen and ammonia

-

-

-

373

745

1 028

1 161

-

1

2

n.a.

n.a.

Fossil fuels with CCUS

-

1

1

220

681

847

996

0

1

1

105

30

Coal with CCUS

-

1

1

156

455

547

644

0

0

1

97

28

Natural gas with CCUS

-

-

-

64

226

301

353

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Unabated fossil fuels

14 47917 456

17 636

11 066

4 241

1 121

158

61

29

0

-5.7

-15

Coal

8 669

10 247

10 427

4 988

1 379

-

-

36

13

-

-8.8

n.a.

Natural gas

4 847

6 526

6 500

5 943

2 834

1 119

158

22

16

0

-1.1

-12

963

683

709

135

28

2

1

2

0

0

-19

-23

Oil

Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (GW)CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

Total capacity

5 187

8 230

8 643

16 18023 06729 35436 956

100

100

100

8.2

5.3

Renewables

1 333

3 292

3 629

11 00817 46023 33130 275

42

68

82

15

7.9

Solar PV

39

925

1 145

6 101

10 43014 30318 753

13

38

51

23

11

Wind

181

827

902

2 742

4 322

5 797

7 616

10

17

21

15

7.9

Hydro

1 027

1 360

1 392

1 765

2 054

2 313

2 612

16

11

7

3.0

2.3

74

159

168

296

426

541

688

2

2

2

7.3

5.2
n.a.

Bioenergy

2050

of which BECCS

-

-

-

15

59

87

114

-

0

0

n.a.

CSP

1

6

7

48

134

251

427

0

0

1

27

16

Geothermal

10

15

15

48

78

99

129

0

0

0

16

8.0

MarineNuclear

0

1

1

8

16

27

48

0

0

0

34

16

403

413

417

541

688

813

916

5

3

2

3.3

2.9

Hydrogen and ammonia

-

-

-

129

367

447

427

-

1

1

n.a.

n.a.

Fossil fuels with CCUS

-

0

0

50

141

203

241

0

0

1

113

31

Coal with CCUS

-

0

0

36

95

131

153

0

0

0

104

29

Natural gas with CCUS

-

-

-

14

46

72

89

-

0

0

n.a.

n.a.

Unabated fossil fuels

3 439

4 480

4 535

3 423

2 453

1 710

892

52

21

2

-3.5

-5.6

Coal

1 614

2 200

2 236

1 457

910

548

242

26

9

1

-5.2

-7.6

Natural gas

1 389

1 854

1 875

1 746

1 402

1 088

611

22

11

2

-0.9

-3.9

436

426

423

220

141

75

39

5

1

0

-7.8

-8.2

1

27

45

1 018

1 949

2 841

4 199

1

6

11

48

18

Oil
Battery storage

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Shares (%)

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections

279

CO₂ emissions:
STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

NZE

NZE

NZE

NZE

Table A.4c: World CO22 emissions

828

CO₂ emissions:

Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (Mt CO₂)CAAGR (%)
2022 to:

2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2030

2050

Total CO₂*

32 87736 58936 93024 03013 375

6 471

-

-5.2

n.a.

Combustion activities (+)

30 62433 63434 04221 95812 017

5 820

655

-5.3

-13

Coal

13 84615 10415 330

8 173

3 541

1 200

171

-7.6

-15

Oil

10 545

10 68310 963

7 910

5 325

3 219

824

-4.0

-8.8

Natural gas

6 052

7 577

7 499

5 795

3 327

1 780

358

-3.2

-10

181

269

251

80

- 176

- 379

- 698

-13

n.a.

Other removals** (-)

-

1

2

167

348

523

933

78

25

Biofuels production

-

1

2

98

186

227

312

67

21

Direct air capture

-

-

-

69

162

295

621

n.a.

n.a.

Electricity and heat sectors

12 511

14 59814 822

8 113

2 854

411

- 275

-7.3

n.a.

Coal

8 946

10 646

10 876

5 156

1 545

42

21

-8.9

-20

Oil

828

574

596

135

45

23

0

-17

-23
-12

Bioenergy and waste

Natural gas

2 623

3 227

3 201

2 781

1 401

604

78

-1.7

Bioenergy and waste

114

151

149

41

- 138

- 257

- 374

-15

n.a.

Other energy sector**

1 438

1 530

1 554

782

322

108

- 198

-8.2

n.a.

Final consumption**

18 66820 19120 29315 187

10 350

6 241

1 088

-3.6

-9.9

Coal

4 699

4 355

4 352

2 983

1 971

1 142

138

-4.6

-12

Oil

9 087

9 552

9 815

7 398

4 993

2 989

711

-3.5

-9.0

Natural gas

2 842

3 566

3 500

2 543

1 718

1 036

173

-3.9

-10

66

118

102

43

- 26

- 93

- 205

-10

n.a.

8 324

9 185

8 998

7 158

5 111

3 222

440

-2.8

-10

Chemicals**

1 201

1 329

1 330

1 150

850

521

45

-1.8

-11

Iron and steel**

2 083

2 733

2 623

2 118

1 584

1 032

233

-2.6

-8.3

Cement**

1 916

2 514

2 418

1 911

1 343

875

79

-2.9

-12

Aluminium**

185

261

265

218

172

107

8

-2.4

-12

Transport

7 014

7 599

7 874

5 992

4 062

2 430

578

-3.4

-8.9

Road

-11

Bioenergy and waste
Industry**

5 216

5 847

5 964

4 213

2 718

1 491

236

-4.2

Passenger cars

2 609

2 930

2 975

1 752

916

403

37

-6.4

-14

Heavy-duty trucks

1 489

1 766

1 812

1 610

1 284

856

178

-1.5

-8.0

Aviation

754

661

792

932

744

554

208

2.0

-4.7

Shipping

797

827

855

695

495

313

112

-2.6

-7.0

Buildings

2 891

2 973

2 979

1 741

971

463

54

-6.5

-13

Residential

1 961

2 013

1 997

1 189

675

326

48

-6.3

-12

Services

929

959

983

552

296

137

6

-7.0

-16

Total CO₂ removals**

-

2

2

234

632

995

1 710

85

28

Total CO₂ captured**

15

41

42

1 024

2 421

3 724

6 040

49

19

*Includes industrial process and flaring emissions.

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

**Includes industrial process emissions.

280

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Indicators and activity:
STEPS

STEPS

STEPS

NZE

NZE

NZE

NZE

8

Table A.5c: World economic and activity indicators

28

Indicators and activity:

CAAGR (%)
2022 to:Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario
2010

2021

2022

2030

2035

2040

2050

2030

2050

Indicators
Population (million)

6 967

7 884

7 950

8 520

8 853

9 161

9 681

0.9

0.7

GDP (USD 2022 billion, PPP)

114 463

158 505

163 734

207 282

238 066

270 050339 273

3.0

2.6

GDP per capita (USD 2022, PPP)

16 42920 10420 59624 32926 89229 47935 044

2.1

1.9

TES/GDP (GJ per USD 1 000, PPP)

4.7

3.9

3.9

2.8

2.3

2.0

1.6

-4.1

-3.1

TFC/GDP (GJ per USD 1 000, PPP)

3.2

2.6

2.6

1.9

1.5

1.3

1.0

-3.9

-3.3

CO₂ intensity of electricity
generation (g CO₂ per kWh)

528

464

460

186

48

3

-4

-11

n.a.

0.7

Industrial production (Mt)Primary chemicals

515

713

719

861

905

916

878

2.3

Steel

1 435

1 960

1 878

1 973

1 966

1 958

1 957

0.6

0.1

Cement

3 280

4 374

4 158

4 264

4 140

4 022

3 934

0.3

-0.2

Aluminium

62

105

108

120

128

136

146

1.4

1.1

Passenger cars (billion pkm)

18 98425 67926 53528 60830 35533 84141 6380.9

1.6

Heavy-duty trucks (billion tkm)

23 36429 48230 47938 03743 34149 03660 3352.8

2.5

Aviation (billion pkm)

4 923

3 673

6 025

10 96911 417

12 84316 545

7.8

3.7

Shipping (billion tkm)

77 101

115 830

124 272

145 087

165 073

188 756

265 253

2.0

2.7

Transport

Buildings

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Households (million)

1 798

2 175

2 208

2 439

2 579

2 715

2 963

1.2

1.1

Residential floor area (million m²)

153 219

194 691

198 090

227 039

247 262

268 130

310 109

1.7

1.6

Services floor area (million m²)

39 26253 41554 62463 89169 19774 14382 7642.0

1.5

AAnnex A | Tables for scenario projections281

Total energy supply (EJ)
Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.6: Total energy supply (EJ)
Total energy supply (EJ)

StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges

2010

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

World

541.3

624.0

632.0

667.9

725.0

627.7

622.9

North America

112.4

111.6

114.5

108.3

101.2

103.4

87.5

94.0

91.7

93.8

87.3

79.2

83.4

70.4
38.4

United States
Central and South America

26.6

28.5

29.1

32.6

40.7

32.2

Brazil

12.2

13.8

14.0

16.0

19.2

16.1

19.1

Europe

89.2

82.1

78.2

74.5

66.6

71.2

57.6

European Union
Africa

64.5

58.9

56.2

51.7

43.1

49.5

38.0

28.6

35.9

36.4

41.1

57.6

34.6

48.6

Middle East

27.1

34.8

36.4

42.0

54.6

40.0

49.7

Eurasia

35.2

42.0

41.6

40.4

42.5

38.6

36.9

Russia

28.5

34.6

34.0

31.9

31.6

30.7

27.6

Asia Pacific

206.9

276.1

281.0

309.5

334.8

289.0

286.7

China

107.3

157.6

159.7

167.7

156.9

157.5

132.9

India

27.9

39.7

42.0

53.7

73.0

47.6

60.3

Japan

20.9

16.7

16.6

15.2

12.5

14.8

11.3

Southeast Asia

22.8

29.6

30.3

37.6

52.0

36.1

46.0

Renewables energy supply (EJ)
Back to contents page

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Table A.7: Renewables energy supply (EJ)
Renewables energy supply (EJ)
StatedPolicies

Historical

Table A.7:
Renewables
energy2030
supply
(EJ)
2010
2021
2022
2050
World
North America
United States
Central and South America

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

227.1

2030

2050

142.1

327.0

43.3

71.1

75.5

8.8

12.0

12.8

18.7

34.5

25.3

51.2

6.6

9.5

10.1

15.2

29.1

20.5

42.5
28.0

7.7

9.5

10.0

12.9

19.6

14.9

Brazil

5.6

6.6

7.0

8.9

11.9

9.9

15.4

Europe

9.9

14.5

14.9

21.3

30.3

24.4

37.7
26.6

7.7

10.8

11.1

15.8

22.3

17.9

Africa

3.7

5.5

5.8

8.7

17.3

9.2

26.3

Middle East

0.1

0.2

0.3

1.2

5.3

1.5

12.5

Eurasia

European Union

282

120.0

Announced
Pledges

1.0

1.3

1.3

1.6

3.1

2.0

5.1

Russia

0.7

1.0

1.0

1.2

2.3

1.4

2.9

Asia Pacific

12.1

28.0

30.5

55.3

115.9

64.1

162.1

China

4.6

13.7

14.9

29.7

59.3

33.8

76.1

India

2.8

5.7

6.2

10.6

26.4

11.5

34.2

Japan

0.8

1.2

1.4

2.2

3.5

2.5

5.0

Southeast Asia

2.8

5.5

5.8

8.6

16.7

10.5

29.7

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Oil production (mb/d)
Back to contents page

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Table A.8: Oil production (mb/d)
Oil production (mb/d)StatedPolicies

Historical

Table A.10:
World2021
liquids
demand2010
2022
2030 (mb/d)
2050

Announced
Pledges
2030

2050

85.3

92.6

97.1

101.5

97.4

92.5

54.8

Processing gains

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.9

2.4

1.6

World production

83.1

90.3

94.8

99.1

94.5

90.2

53.1

Conventional crude oil

67.4

60.2

62.8

61.3

58.2

54.9

29.8

Tight oil

0.7

7.5

8.3

11.1

10.2

10.3

6.9

Natural gas liquids

12.7

18.3

19.0

21.2

19.4

20.1

13.6

Extra-heavy oil & bitumen

2.0

3.5

3.7

4.4

5.5

3.9

2.5

Other

0.3

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.0

0.3

Non-OPEC

49.8

58.7

60.4

63.9

53.7

58.3

29.4

OPEC

33.3

31.6

34.4

35.1

40.8

31.9

23.7

North America

14.0

24.3

25.6

28.3

23.9

25.7

14.2

Central and South America

7.4

6.0

6.4

9.1

10.0

8.2

5.2

Europe

4.4

3.6

3.3

2.9

1.3

2.6

0.5

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.1

Africa

10.2

7.4

7.1

6.0

5.7

5.5

2.9

Middle East

25.4

28.0

31.0

33.8

39.3

30.7

23.5

Eurasia

13.4

13.7

13.9

13.1

10.1

11.9

4.9

Asia Pacific

8.4

7.4

7.4

6.0

4.3

5.6

1.9

2.6

1.9

1.8

1.3

0.8

1.3

0.4

World supply

European Union

Southeast Asia

Oil demand (mb/d)
Back to contents page

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Table A.9: Oil demand (mb/d)
Table A.9: Oil demand(mb/d)
Oil demand (mb/d)StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges

2010
2021
2022 and2030
2050
2030
Table A.11: Refining
capacityruns (mb/d)
87.1

93.7

96.5

101.5

97.4

92.5

54.8

North America

22.1

21.5

22.2

20.4

15.2

18.1

6.0

17.8

17.8

18.3

16.5

11.7

14.8

4.6

5.5

5.3

5.5

5.7

6.2

5.1

2.7
1.1

United States
Central and South America
Brazil

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.2

Europe

13.9

12.5

12.4

10.8

6.3

9.2

2.4

10.6

9.4

9.3

7.8

3.8

6.5

1.3
5.4

European Union

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

2050

World

Africa

3.3

3.8

4.0

4.7

7.7

4.5

Middle East

7.1

7.7

8.1

8.9

10.5

8.3

7.8

Eurasia

3.2

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.3

4.0

Russia

2.6

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.0

Asia Pacific

25.0

32.7

32.9

37.6

35.1

34.6

20.1

China

8.8

14.7

14.4

16.4

12.0

15.1

6.9

India

3.3

4.8

5.2

6.8

7.8

6.2

4.7

Japan

4.2

3.2

3.3

2.6

1.7

2.3

0.7

Southeast Asia

4.0

4.6

4.8

6.0

6.9

5.5

3.6

International bunkers

7.1

6.1

7.0

8.9

11.7

8.4

6.4

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections
284

283

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

World liquids demand (mb/d)Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedStatedScenario
Policies
Policies
StatedScenario
Scenario
Policies
StatedAnnounced
Scenario
Policies
Announced
Pledges
Scenario
Scenario
Pledges Scenario
365
365
365
365
365
365

Back to contents page

Table A.10: World liquids demand (mb/d)World liquids demand (mb/d)StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

Total liquids

95.8

98.7

104.5

102.1

97.5

65.4

Biofuels

2.1

2.2

3.0

4.5

4.8

7.0

Hydrogen based fuels

-

-

-

0.2

0.2

3.6

93.7

96.5

101.5

97.4

92.5

54.8

CTL, GTL and additives

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.2

Direct use of crude oil

1.1

1.0

0.6

0.3

0.5

0.2

91.8

94.6

100.0

96.0

91.1

54.4

LPG and ethane

13.8

14.1

16.0

16.4

14.9

10.5

Naphtha

6.8

6.9

6.9

8.4

6.4

6.9

Gasoline

23.6

24.0

22.3

16.3

20.3

7.4

Kerosene

5.3

6.2

8.7

11.1

8.1

6.7

Diesel

26.4

26.7

28.0

27.5

25.2

12.7

Fuel oil

6.0

6.3

5.7

6.2

5.1

2.5

Other products

9.9

10.4

12.4

10.1

11.1

7.7

Products from NGLs

11.5

12.1

13.6

11.5

13.3

8.6

Refinery products
Refinery market share

80.3
84%

82.5
84%

86.4
83%

84.5
83%

77.8
80%

45.8
71%

Total oilOil products

Note: CTL = coal-to-liquids; GTL = gas-to-liquids; LPG = liquefied petroleum gas;

NGLs = natural
gas liquids.
Refining capacity
andruns
Back to contents page

Table A.11: Refining capacity and runs (mb/d)
Refining capacity and refinery runs (mb/d)
Table A.11:
Refining capacity and runs (mb/d)
Refining capacity
Refinery runs
STEPS

STEPS

APS

2030

2050

2030

2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

North America

21.3

21.0

20.7

19.7

9.6

18.5

17.6

16.7

15.8

7.2

Europe

15.8

14.6

13.3

13.5

6.4

12.5

11.0

8.7

9.7

3.6

Asia Pacific

2050

37.7

39.9

41.1

37.6

25.9

29.8

33.3

33.5

30.2

19.5

Japan and Korea

6.9

6.3

5.7

5.8

3.6

5.6

4.9

4.2

4.3

2.4

China

18.3

19.8

19.8

18.4

10.4

13.7

16.0

14.7

14.4

7.1

India

5.2

6.3

7.5

5.9

4.7

5.1

6.3

7.4

5.6

4.1
4.4

5.4

5.5

6.0

5.5

5.2

4.1

4.6

5.5

4.5

Middle East

10.5

11.9

12.7

11.2

8.5

8.5

9.9

10.4

8.7

6.2

Russia

7.0

6.7

6.4

6.4

4.1

5.5

4.8

3.8

4.3

2.1

Africa

3.2

4.0

4.3

4.0

3.4

1.8

2.6

3.3

2.5

2.3

Brazil

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.3

1.9

2.0

2.1

1.8

1.1

Other
World

5.0

4.9

5.1

4.9

3.7

2.3

2.7

3.1

2.5

2.1

102.7

105.2

105.8

99.4

62.9

80.8

83.9

81.6

75.5

44.1

Atlantic Basin

54.2

53.2

51.8

50.4

28.3

42.5

40.5

37.4

36.5

18.3

East of Suez

48.5

52.0

54.0

49.0

34.6

38.3

43.4

44.1

39.0

25.8

Southeast Asia

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

APS

2022

284

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Natural gas production (bcm)Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.12: Natural gas production (bcm)
Natural gas production (bcm)StatedPolicies

HistoricalWorld

Announced
Pledges

2010

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

3 274

4 149

4 138

4 299

4 173

3 861

2 422
1 940

2 769

2 968

2 871

2 894

3 016

2 742

Tight gas

274

296

301

275

122

187

39

Shale gas

154

795

873

1 031

942

854

420

Coalbed methane

22

Conventional gas

77

82

80

75

67

54

Other

-

8

13

24

26

24

1

North America

811

1 189

1 240

1 313

936

1 121

418

Central and South America

160

151

153

144

159

129

95

Europe

341

239

248

196

155

162

47

148

51

47

34

22

20

3

Africa

203

265

262

283

360

266

240

Middle East

463

660

678

867

1 044

818

721

Eurasia

807

998

904

832

892

764

586

Asia Pacific

488

648

653

664

627

601

315

216

195

189

166

117

147

77

European Union

Southeast Asia

Natural gas demand (bcm)Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.13: Natural gas demand (bcm)
Natural gas demand (bcm)StatedPolicies

Historical
2010

World

2022

2030

2050

Table A.13:
gas
3 326 Natural
4 218
4 159demand
4 299 (bcm)
4 173North America
United States
Central and South America

2030

2050

3 861

2 422

835

1 108

1 162

1 107

781

940

369

678

881

930

868

551

731

256

147

160

156

169

178

152

100

Brazil

29

42

32

33

35

28

18

Europe

695

627

544

468

299

390

93

446

413

358

305

160

248

26

Africa

106

174

170

202

277

182

182

Middle East

395

570

585

686

849

658

647

Eurasia

573

667

642

625

644

581

490
370

European Union

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

2021

Announced
Pledges

Russia

467

549

520

494

474

462

Asia Pacific

575

911

900

1 034

1 119

954

536

China

110

369

369

458

452

410

185

India

64

64

60

107

169

96

102

Japan

95

98

97

66

44

60

19

Southeast Asia

150

162

158

191

254

171

122

International bunkers

-

-

-

8

26

4

4

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections

285

Coal production (Mtce)
Back to contents page

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Table A.14: Coal production (Mtce)
Coal production (Mtce)

StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges

2010

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

5 235

5 709

6 122

5 007

3 465

4 337

1 530

Steam coal

4 069

4 533

4 888

3 974

2 669

3 388

1 135

Coking coal

866

941

988

886

691

830

350

Lignite and peat

300

235

246

146

105

120

45

818

441

442

175

82

124

35

World

North America
Central and South America

79

59

59

31

33

25

3

Europe

331

190

188

107

58

69

8

220

134

136

43

6

32

1

210

196

202

173

155

151

44

European Union
AfricaMiddle East

1

2

1

1

1

1

-

309

430

431

346

281

307

187

3 487

4 391

4 799

4 174

2 856

3 661

1 253

318

489

539

449

458

409

207

Eurasia
Asia PacificSoutheast Asia

Coal demand (Mtce)
Back to contents page

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Table A.15: Coal demand (Mtce)
Coal demand (Mtce)

StatedPolicies

Historical

World
North America
United States
Central and South America

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

5 710

5 807

5 007

3 465

4 337

1 530

768

388

371

110

27

Table716A.15: 363
Coal demand(Mtce)
341
95
16

71

19

59

15

37

45

40

38

44

28

15

21

24

20

22

27

17

11

Europe

539

362

368

220

163

173

49

361

238

245

107

50

88

13

155

147

146

130

110

109

27

AfricaMiddle East
Eurasia

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

2010
5 218

BrazilEuropean Union

286

Announced
Pledges

3

5

5

8

10

7

5

203

237

246

197

166

187

123

Russia

151

183

191

139

109

136

96

Asia Pacific

3 513

4 526

4 631

4 305

2 946

3 763

1 293

China

2 565

3 239

3 300

2 878

1 563

2 530

672

India

399

602

643

764

708

670

331

Japan

165

156

155

105

58

97

35

Southeast Asia

122

260

269

327

427

291

163

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Electricity generation (TWh)Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.16: Electricity generation (TWh)Electricity generation (TWh)StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges

2010

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

World

21 53328 34629 03335 80253 98536 37066 760

North America

5 233

5 377

5 524

5 945

8 381

6 235

10 986

4 354

4 354

4 491

4 805

6 855

5 042

9 013

1 129

1 347

1 389

1 646

2 626

1 723

3 930

United States
Central and South America
Brazil

516

656

677

779

1 199

779

1 428

Europe

4 119

4 126

3 996

4 708

6 419

4 989

7 964

2 955

2 885

2 795

3 256

4 403

3 473

5 441

686

874

890

1 203

2 294

1 327

3 859

829

1 246

1 276

1 716

2 956

1 694

3 919

1 251

1 446

1 476

1 540

1 923

1 502

2 023

European Union
AfricaMiddle East
Eurasia
Russia

1 036

1 158

1 170

1 177

1 376

1 143

1 380

Asia Pacific

8 285

13 93014 48319 04329 38518 90034 079

China

4 236

8 597

8 912

11 74316 527

11 45417 589

India

972

1 635

1 766

2 672

5 694

2 581

6 605

Japan

1 164

1 040

1 062

1 054

1 076

1 083

1 358

685
1 162
Southeast Asia
Renewables
generation
(TWh)

1 220

1 709

3 292

1 759

4 498

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.17: Renewables generation (TWh)Renewables generation (TWh)StatedPolicies

Historical

Table A.17:
generation(TWh)2010 Renewables
2021
2022
2030
2050
World
North America
United States
Central and South America

2030

2050

4 209

7 964

8 599

16 91537 97319 29555 057

856

1 374

1 497

2 828

6 526

3 538

9 261

441

867

973

2 205

5 510

2 807

7 683
3 768

752

896

1 018

1 296

2 320

1 428

Brazil

437

508

594

700

1 102

732

1 378

Europe

954

1 601

1 620

3 081

5 180

3 438

6 834

653

1 081

1 085

2 177

3 713

2 407

4 720

116

201

210

486

1 505

711

3 453
2 577

European Union
AfricaIEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Announced
Pledges

Middle East

18

38

45

216

1 041

233

Eurasia

226

287

277

339

537

380

844

Russia

167

221

205

243

380

254

456

Asia Pacific

1 287

3 568

3 932

8 669

20 8639 568

28 321

China

782

2 448

2 681

6 074

12 6646 419

14 836

India

161

351

399

981

4 149

1 090

5 660

Japan

106

212

225

385

651

412

797

Southeast Asia

104

310

340

541

1 630

738

3 773

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections

287

Solar PV generation (TWh)Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.18: Solar PV generation (TWh)Solar PV generation (TWh)StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges

2010

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

World

32

1 023

1 291

5 405

17 2206 390

24 297

North America

3

167

203

868

3 267

1 191

3 932

3

148

185

829

3 069

1 126

3 366

0

35

53

160

422

256

1 255

United States
Central and South America
Brazil

0

17

30

102

223

119

364

Europe

23

199

245

753

1 452

844

1 852

22

159

202

626

1 186

689

1 310

Africa

0

14

16

122

526

245

1 859

Middle East

0

13

17

147

643

141

1 574

Eurasia

0

5

6

18

44

25

110

Russia

0

2

3

6

16

7

41

Asia Pacific

6

589

750

3 336

10 8683 688

13 715

China

1

327

429

2 294

6 801

2 428

7 889

India

0

76

105

480

2 499

534

3 145

Japan

4

86

95

162

234

171

245

38

45

126

633

213

1 293

European Union

SoutheastAsia
Wind
generation(TWh)0Back to contents page

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Table A.19: Wind generation (TWh)Wind generation (TWh)StatedPolicies

Historical

World

2050
18 432

2 209

1 421

3 998

1 917

1 249

3 516

656

279

1 105

158

406

165

466

557

1 304

2 382

1 518

3 489

105

438

500

1 107

95

383

442

1 001

3

106

119

252

Brazil2

7282Europe154500

11 801

140

387

420

985

1 790

1 121

2 594

Africa

2

23

25

90

302

128

593

Middle East

0

3

4

26

232

42

665

Eurasia

0

6

8

23

92

42

249

Russia

0

3

5

12

69

17

114

Asia Pacific

77

789

912

2 427

5 927

2 778

8 333

China

45

656

762

1 963

3 876

2 026

4 026

India

20

77

79

189

1 071

241

1 449

Japan

4

9

10

64

208

78

314

Southeast Asia

0

9

14

55

228

148

1 207

European Union

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

2030

5 229

Central and South America

342

6 208

2 125

United States

288

2021
2022
2030
2050
Table2010
A.19: Wind
generation
(TWh)
1 865

North America

Announced
PledgesInternational Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Nuclear generation (TWh)Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.20: Nuclear generation (TWh)
Nuclear generation (TWh)StatedPolicies

Historical

World
North America

Announced
Pledges

2010

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

2 756

2 810

2 682

3 351

4 353

3 496

5 301

935

916

898

925

934

926

1 195

839

812

804

825

804

825

1 023

22

26

23

31

75

35

83

Brazil

15

15

15

24

45

24

45

Europe

1 032

889

750

808

781

894

970
698

United States
Central and South America

854

732

607

623

576

703

Africa

12

12

11

24

43

29

72

Middle East

0

15

26

45

89

51

146

European Union

Eurasia

173

225

226

238

306

238

315

Russia

170

223

224

236

297

236

297

Asia Pacific

582

726

748

1 281

2 125

1 322

2 520

China

74

408

418

642

1 247

661

1 483

India

26

47

50

128

337

125

355

Japan

288

71

60

207

206

232

289

Southeast Asia
Naturalgas generation0 (TWh)0

0

0

8

0

12

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.21: Natural gas generation (TWh)Natural gas generation (TWh)StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges2010 Natural
2021 gas
2022
2030
2050
Table A.21:
generation
(TWh)
World
North America

6 526

6 500

6 613

6 210

2030

2050

6 055

3 319

1 217

1 933

2 039

1 916

885

1 584

366

1 018

1 633

1 747

1 538

513

1 245

169

170

265

211

243

197

217

71

Brazil

36

87

42

39

42

20

5

Europe

946

888

847

489

217

404

75

United States
Central and South America

589

546

547

334

104

252

8

Africa

234

366

369

449

638

369

275

Middle East

527

907

919

1 207

1 636

1 223

1 102

Eurasia

603

653

673

745

878

679

727

Russia

521

514

524

575

598

531

535

Asia Pacific

1 151

1 514

1 443

1 564

1 759

1 579

704

China

92

290

257

349

371

376

133

India

107

62

39

83

175

81

64

Japan

332

359

359

216

92

193

70

Southeast Asia

336

330

338

508

768

445

244

European Union

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

4 847

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections

289

Coal generation (TWh)Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.22: Coal generation (TWh)Coal generation (TWh)StatedPolicies

Historical

World
North America
United States
Central and South America

Announced
Pledges

2010

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

8 669

10 247

10 428

8 337

4 978

6 998

2 244

2 106

1 043

976

222

12

119

30

1 994

992

914

206

12

104

30
1

41

67

51

31

19

11

Brazil

11

24

14

11

5

0

0

Europe

1 068

663

691

285

223

211

59

755

453

484

88

3

79

2

259

246

245

188

60

162

18

European Union
AfricaMiddle East
Eurasia

0

1

1

3

4

3

3

235

267

288

212

198

199

132

Russia

166

187

206

117

98

117

89

Asia Pacific

4 958

7 961

8 176

7 396

4 463

6 292

2 000

China

3 263

5 432

5 536

4 662

2 213

3 978

1 044

India

658

1 170

1 270

1 472

1 029

1 280

495

Japan

317

322

333

196

66

190

60

185
Southeast Asia
Total
final consumption(EJ)508

527

645

874

563

267

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.23: Total final consumption (EJ)
Total final consumption (EJ)
StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges2010 Total
2021 final2022
2030
2050
Table A.23:
consumption
(EJ)

2030

2050

World

382.7

436.2

442.4

482.0

535.8

451.0

429.0

North America

76.5

77.1

79.2

77.6

72.6

73.2

54.7

63.8

64.9

66.4

64.3

58.1

60.8

44.1

19.2

20.2

21.0

23.7

29.4

22.5

23.8

Brazil

9.1

10.0

10.4

11.5

13.7

11.1

11.9

Europe

63.0

60.6

57.3

56.7

49.9

53.8

39.4

United States
Central and South America

European Union

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Africa

290

45.9

43.9

41.8

40.1

32.7

38.1

26.1

20.7

25.4

25.9

29.7

42.8

25.3

33.3

Middle East

19.3

23.7

24.6

29.4

39.9

28.2

35.9

Eurasia

23.6

28.4

28.5

29.1

31.3

27.9

26.9

Russia

19.0

23.4

23.4

22.9

23.2

22.1

19.8

Asia Pacific

145.3

187.7

190.9

216.2

242.8

201.2

193.2

China

76.3

106.1

106.9

116.4

112.9

110.2

90.5

India

19.0

27.4

29.3

38.0

55.7

33.4

43.3

Japan

14.1

12.0

12.0

11.0

9.3

10.5

7.5

Southeast Asia

16.1

19.2

19.8

24.7

33.8

23.0

27.0

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Industry consumption (EJ)
Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.24: Industry consumption (EJ)
Industry consumption (EJ)

StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges

2010

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

World

143.0

166.7

166.6

186.8

207.3

179.2

175.4

North America

17.8

18.9

19.1

20.5

22.2

19.6

18.9

14.0

15.0

15.2

16.1

17.1

15.4

14.5

7.2

6.8

6.9

7.8

9.4

7.5

8.4

Brazil

3.9

3.9

4.0

4.4

5.3

4.3

4.7

Europe

19.5

19.2

17.5

18.1

17.4

17.3

15.1
10.2

United States
Central and South America

14.3

14.1

12.9

13.0

11.6

12.4

Africa

3.9

4.2

4.2

5.1

8.4

5.0

7.3

Middle East

8.0

9.6

10.1

11.8

14.2

11.5

13.2

Eurasia

9.7

European Union

8.4

9.6

9.5

9.7

10.6

9.6

Russia

6.8

8.4

8.3

8.2

8.4

8.1

7.8

Asia Pacific

78.2

98.5

99.3

113.9

125.0

108.8

102.8

China

49.5

62.6

62.6

68.0

63.6

65.0

51.4

India

7.9

12.5

13.4

19.0

29.8

17.7

23.5

Japan

6.1

5.3

5.2

4.9

4.4

4.8

3.9

6.2
Southeast Asia
Transport
consumption(EJ) 8.6

8.8

11.1

15.1

10.7

13.4

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.25: Transport consumption (EJ)
Transport consumption (EJ)
StatedPolicies

Historical

2010
2021
2022
2030
2050
Table A.25:
Transport
consumption
(EJ)

2030

2050

121.8

106.3

World

101.7

112.4

116.5

127.5

139.2

North America

29.6

29.2

29.9

28.2

23.2

26.6

15.8

25.0

25.3

25.6

23.9

18.9

22.5

13.3
8.0

United States
Central and South America

6.1

7.1

7.4

8.7

11.3

8.3

Brazil

2.9

3.6

3.8

4.2

4.7

4.1

3.9

Europe

15.6

15.8

16.0

14.9

11.0

14.1

8.0

11.7

11.5

11.7

10.4

6.7

9.9

5.0

3.6

5.0

5.1

6.0

10.3

5.8

8.5

Middle East

4.9

5.6

6.0

7.0

9.7

6.7

7.7

Eurasia

4.7

5.1

5.1

5.3

5.7

5.2

5.0

European Union
AfricaIEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Announced
Pledges

Russia

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.6

3.9

3.2

Asia Pacific

22.0

31.5

32.1

38.0

41.1

36.2

31.6

China

8.3

14.6

14.3

16.4

13.2

15.8

10.7

India

2.7

4.3

4.7

6.6

9.2

6.2

7.2

Japan

3.3

2.7

2.6

2.2

1.7

2.1

1.1

Southeast Asia

3.7

5.1

5.5

7.1

8.9

6.7

6.5

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections

291

Buildings consumption (EJ)
Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.26: Buildings consumption (EJ)
Buildings consumption (EJ)

StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges

2010

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

World

116.8

131.2

132.5

138.5

158.9

122.5

122.2

North America

23.7

23.9

24.8

23.3

21.7

21.6

15.6

20.5

20.3

21.2

19.7

17.9

18.4

12.8

4.4

5.0

5.1

5.5

6.6

4.9

5.7

Brazil

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.6

1.8

2.3

Europe

24.3

22.3

20.6

20.5

18.6

19.2

14.0

United States
Central and South America

European Union
Africa

17.6

16.0

14.8

14.4

12.4

13.6

9.4

12.4

15.4

15.7

17.6

22.5

13.6

16.1
13.6

Middle East

5.4

6.9

7.1

9.1

14.5

8.5

Eurasia

8.4

10.6

10.6

10.8

11.5

10.1

9.1

Russia

6.2

7.9

7.9

7.7

7.8

7.2

5.9

Asia Pacific

38.2

47.1

48.5

51.8

63.4

44.5

48.2

China

15.7

23.8

24.7

26.4

31.4

24.3

25.0

India

7.0

8.3

8.6

9.1

11.8

6.4

8.5

Japan

4.3

3.7

3.7

3.5

2.9

3.3

2.3

4.4

5.2

8.3

4.4

6.0

5.3
4.4
Total hydrogen demand(PJ)

Southeast Asia

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedStatedScenario
Policies
Policies
StatedScenario
Scenario
Policies
StatedAnnounced
Scenario
Policies
Announced
Pledges
Scenario
Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.27: Hydrogen demand (PJ)
Total hydrogen demand (PJ)
StatedPolicies

Historical

Table A.27:
demand(PJ)
2021Hydrogen
2022
2030
2050

2030

2050

World

11 12911 425

13 21916 631

13 91535 596

North America

1 788

1 906

2 182

2 866

2 666

8 214

1 466

1 570

1 743

2 317

2 228

7 252
2 499

United States
Central and South America

333

356

483

776

597

Brazil

43

52

82

109

101

397

Europe

1 029

969

1 002

1 138

1 248

2 860
1 932

European Union
AfricaMiddle East

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

Eurasia292

Announced
Pledges

779

714

742

836

936

349

358

468

711

526

1 930

1 386

1 479

1 859

2 404

1 789

4 300

850

842

881

899

851

850

Russia

778

774

806

807

777

744

Asia Pacific

5 394

5 515

6 453

8 184

6 373

15 361

China

3 278

3 290

3 623

3 763

3 549

6 772

India

963

1 006

1 321

2 123

1 227

2 902

Japan

211

230

216

259

274

901

Southeast Asia

418

447

538

812

544

2 340

International bunkers

-

-

4

38

29

508

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Low-emissions hydrogen balance (Mt H₂ equivalent)Stated Policies
Statedbalance
Scenario
Policies
Stated Policies
Scenario
Announced
Announced
Netpledges
scenario
ZeroNetEmissionsscenario
Zero Emissions
by 2050by
Scenario
2050 Scenario
Table A.28: Low-emissions hydrogen(MtScenario
H22pledges
equivalent)

Back to contents pageLow-emissions hydrogen balance (Mt H₂ equivalent)StatedPolicies

Announced
Pledges

Net Zero
Emissionsby 2050

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

2030

2050

1
0

7
5

30
22

25
16

246
189

70
51

420
327

Fossil fuels with CCUS

1

2

8

8

56

18

89

Bioenergy and other

0

0

0

0

1

0

2

Transformation of hydrogen
To power generation

0
-

5
1

15
3

14
4

116
23

40
17

200
51

To hydrogen-based fuels

-

0

4

6

83

16

142

In oil refining

0

2

7

4

7

6

6

To biofuels

0

0

1

2

4

1

1

Hydrogen demand for end-use sectors

0

3

16

10

130

30

220

Low-emissions hydrogen-based fuels
Total final consumption

-

0
0

3
1

3
3

62
47

12
7

104
84

Low-emissions hydrogen production
Water electrolysis

Power generation
Trade
Trade as share of demand

-

0

2

0

15

4

20

-

1
18%

6
21%

5
18%

42
17%

14
21%

58
14%

Total CO₂ emissions* (Mt CO₂)

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Back to contents page

Table A.29: Total CO2 emissions* (Mt CO2)
Total CO₂ emissions* (Mt CO₂)
StatedPolicies

Historical
2010
World
North America
United States

2030

2050

32 877Total
36 58936 93035 125(Mt29696
30 769
Table A.29:
CO₂₂ emissions*
CO₂)

12 043Central and South America

2021

2022

2030

Announced
Pledges

2050

6 470

5 631

5 702

4 570

2 892

3 683

5 456

4 669

4 697

3 608

1 982

2 900

277
10

1 153

1 185

1 178

1 205

1 333

1 044

542

Brazil

411

479

452

448

473

374

172

Europe

4 720

3 990

3 826

2 961

1 846

2 390

346

European Union
Africa

3 311

2 744

2 662

1 885

882

1 515

81

1 168

1 364

1 385

1 468

1 991

1 328

1 171

Middle East

1 637

2 056

2 119

2 333

2 737

2 151

1 816

Eurasia

2 153

2 330

2 348

2 193

2 144

2 066

1 644

Russia

1 688

1 846

1 856

1 645

1 470

1 569

1 192

Asia Pacific

14 45019 05119 26018 98214 88316 788

5 269

China

8 799

12 11012 135

11 261

6 897

9 949

1 946

India

1 685

2 462

2 627

3 252

3 363

2 875

1 481

Japan

1 201

1 057

1 062

763

442

684

42

Southeast Asia

1 163

1 690

1 733

2 047

2 530

1 836

982

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

*Includes industrial process and flaring emissions.

A
Annex A | Tables for scenario projections293

Electricity and heat sectors CO₂ emissions (Mt CO₂)
Back to contents page

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Table A.30:
A.30: Electricity
Electricity andand heatheat sectors
sectors CO₂
CO₂ emissions (Mt CO₂)
CO )
Table
Electricity and heat 2sectors CO₂ emissions (Mt CO₂) 2
StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges

2010

2021

2022

2030

2050

2030

2050

World

12 511

14 59814 82212 3028 217

10 597

3 004

North America

2 596

1 859

1 835

991

343

712

- 32

2 346

1 627

1 599

813

206

558

- 102
34

United States
Central and South America

235

262

222

171

111

126

Brazil

46

88

50

37

30

11

2

Europe

1 732

1 213

1 210

602

361

465

67

1 188

805

827

302

74

244

-5

421

464

468

418

329

360

153

European Union
AfricaMiddle East
Eurasia

550

694

701

719

776

680

486

1 034

1 019

1 041

911

873

853

686

Russia

892

834

850

710

621

676

546

Asia Pacific

5 943

9 087

9 346

8 490

5 425

7 401

1 610

China

3 509

5 967

6 141

5 331

2 817

4 643

761

India

785

1 166

1 227

1 408

998

1 218

321

Japan

500

482

501

266

85

250

-6

Final consumption CO₂ emissions* (Mt CO₂)

1 115

792

350

Southeast Asia

Back to contents page

398

705

726

879

Stated Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
StatedScenario
Policies
Announced
ScenarioAnnounced
Pledges Scenario
Pledges Scenario

Table A.31: Total final consumption CO2 emissions* (Mt CO2)
Final consumption CO₂ emissions* (Mt CO₂)
StatedPolicies

Historical

Announced
Pledges2010 consumption
2021
2022 CO₂
2050
2030CO₂)
2050
Table A.31: Total final
₂2030
emissions*
(Mt

World

18 66820 19120 29321 04619 95018 876

North America

3 455

3 343

3 419

3 128

2 182

2 697

436

2 850

2 783

2 820

2 529

1 596

2 201

245
482

United States
Central and South America

8 952

807

834

861

952

1 137

858

Brazil

342

371

382

396

433

356

172

Europe

2 813

2 628

2 476

2 236

1 399

1 859

281

2 009

1 839

1 736

1 498

749

1 227

80

Africa

561

723

743

886

1 496

835

993

Middle East

924

1 104

1 155

1 329

1 690

1 251

1 227

Eurasia

924

1 174

1 172

1 163

1 180

1 102

901

Russia

672

905

900

847

787

810

609

Asia Pacific

8 057

9 403

9 355

9 939

8 997

8 957

3 653

China

5 027

5 818

5 664

5 584

3 811

5 023

1 208

India

866

1 224

1 325

1 751

2 280

1 595

1 144

Japan

672

558

543

484

368

423

69

Southeast Asia

690

901

930

1 124

1 363

1 013

621

European Union

IEA. CC BY-NC-SA 4.0.

* Includes industrial process emissions.

294International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Annex B
Design of the scenarios

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The World Energy Outlook-2023 (WEO-2023) explores three main scenarios in the analysis in
the chapters. These scenarios are not predictions – the IEA does not have a single view on
the future of the energy system. The scenarios are:The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) is designed to provide a sense of the prevailingdirection of energy system progression, based on a detailed review of the current policy
landscape. It explores how energy systems evolve under current policies and private
sector momentum without additional policy implementation. The scenario is notdeveloped with a particular outcome in mind, but rather aims to hold a mirror up to
policy makers to understand where current efforts are likely to lead global energy
systems. The STEPS does not take for granted that all government targets will beachieved. Instead, it takes a granular, sector-by-sector look at existing policies andmeasures, as of late August 2023. New this year, the STEPS takes into account industry
action, including manufacturing capacity of clean energy technologies, and its impacts
on market uptake beyond the policies in place or announced. A snapshot of the major
policies considered in the STEPS is presented in Tables B.6 to B.11.



The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) assumes that governments will meet, in full andon time, the climate commitments they have made, including their Nationally
Determined Contributions and longer-term net zero emissions targets. As with the
STEPS, the APS is not designed to achieve a particular outcome, but instead provides abottom-up assessment of how countries may deliver on climate pledges. Countries
without ambitious long-term pledges are assumed to benefit in this scenario from theaccelerated cost reductions and wider availability of clean energy technologies. The listof additional climate and energy targets met in the APS is presented in Tables B.6 toB.11. All net zero emissions pledges considered in the APS are included in the IEA Climate
Pledges Explorer. 1

The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) Scenario depicts a narrow but achievable
pathway for the global energy sector to reach net zero energy-related CO2 emissions by
2050 by deploying a wide portfolio of clean energy technologies and without offsetsfrom land-use measures. It recognises that achieving net zero energy sector CO2
emissions by 2050 depends on fair and effective global co-operation, with advanced
economies taking the lead and reaching net zero emissions earlier in the NZE Scenario
than emerging market and developing economies. This scenario also achieves universal
energy access by 2030, consistent with the energy-related targets of the United Nations
Sustainable Development Goals. The NZE Scenario is consistent with limiting the global
temperature rise to 1.5 °C (with at least a 50% probability) with limited overshoot.

1 The IEA Climate Pledges Explorer is available at: http://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/climate-pledges-explorer

Annex B | Design of the scenarios

295

B.1

Population

Table B.1 ⊳Population assumptions by region
Compound averageannual growth rate
2000-22 2022-30 2022-50

Population(million)

Urbanisation(share of population)

2022

2030

2050

2022

2030

2050

North America

0.9%

0.6%

0.4%

505

528

565

83%

84%

89%

United States

0.7%

0.5%

0.4%

336

350

372

83%

85%

89%

C & S America

1.0%

0.7%

0.5%

529

559

601

82%

83%

88%

Brazil

0.9%

0.5%

0.2%

215

224

231

88%

89%

92%

Europe

0.3%

0.0%

-0.1%

695

696

682

76%

78%

84%

0.2%

-0.1%

-0.2%

449

446

426

75%

77%

83%

Africa

2.6%

2.3%

2.0%

1 425

1 708

2 482

44%

48%

59%

Middle East

2.2%

1.4%

1.1%

265

297

364

73%

75%

81%

Eurasia

0.4%

0.3%

0.2%

238

243

253

65%

67%

73%

European Union

Russia

-0.1%

-0.3%

-0.3%

143

140

132

75%

77%

83%

Asia Pacific

1.0%

0.6%

0.3%

4 295

4 489

4 734

50%

55%

64%

China

0.5%

-0.1%

-0.3%

1 420

1 410

1 307

64%

71%

80%

India

1.3%

0.8%

0.6%

1 417

1 515

1 670

36%

40%

53%

Japan

-0.1%

-0.6%

-0.6%

125

119

105

92%

93%

95%

Southeast Asia
World

1.2%

0.8%

0.5%

679

723

787

51%

56%

66%

1.2%

0.9%

0.7%

7 950

8 520

9 681

57%

60%

68%

Notes: C & S America = Central and South America. See Annex C for composition of regional groupings.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Sources: UN DESA (2018, 2022); World Bank (2023a); IEA databases and analysis.
Population is a major determinant of many of the trends in the Outlook. We use themedium variant of the United Nations projections as the basis for population growth inall scenarios, but this is naturally subject to a degree of uncertainty.



On average, the rate of population growth is assumed to slow over time, but the global
population approaches 9.7 billion by 2050 (Table B.1).



Around three-fifths of the increase over the projection period to 2050 is in Africa andaround a further quarter is in the Asia Pacific region.

The share of the world’s population living in towns and cities has been rising steadily, a
trend that is projected to continue over the period to 2050. In aggregate, this meansthat virtually all of the 1.7 billion increase in global population over the period is added
to cities and towns.

296International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

B.2

CO2 prices

Table B.2 ⊳CO2 prices for electricity, industry and energy production
in selected regions by scenario

USD (2022, MER) per tonne of CO2

2030

2040

2050

Canada

130

150

155

Chile and Colombia

13

21

29

China

28

43

53

European Union

120

129

135

Korea

42

67

89

Advanced economies with net zero emissions pledges*

135

175

200

Emerging market and developing economies withnet zero emissions pledges**

40

110

160

Other emerging market and developing economies

-

17

47

140

205

250

90

160

200

25

85

180

15

35

55

Stated Policies Scenario

Announced Pledges Scenario

Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario
Advanced economies with net zero emissions pledges
Emerging market and developing economies withnet zero emissions pledges
Selected emerging market and developing economies(without net zero emissions pledges)
Other emerging market and developing economies
Note: Values are rounded.
*Includes all OECD countries except Mexico.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

*Includes China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa.


There are 73 direct carbon pricing instruments in place today, covering around40 countries and over 30 subnational jurisdictions. Global carbon pricing revenues in
2022 increased by over 10% from 2021 levels, to around USD 95 billion (World Bank,
2023b).



Existing and scheduled CO2 pricing schemes are reflected in the STEPS, covering
electricity generation, industry, energy production sectors and other end-use sectors,
e.g. aviation, road transport and buildings, where applicable.

In the APS, higher CO2 prices are introduced across all regions with net zero emissions
pledges. No explicit pricing is assumed in sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa)and Other Asia regions. Instead, these regions rely on direct policy interventions to drive
decarbonisation in the APS.

In the NZE Scenario, CO2 prices cover all regions and rise rapidly across all advanced
economies as well as in prominent emerging market economies with net zero emissions
pledges, including China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and South Africa. CO2 prices are lower,
but nevertheless rising in other emerging market and developing economies such as

Annex B | Design of the scenarios

297

BNorth Africa, Middle East, Russia and Southeast Asia (excluding Indonesia). CO2 prices
are lower in the remaining developing economies, as it is assumed they pursue more
direct policies to adapt and transform their energy systems.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

298

All scenarios consider the effects of other policy measures alongside CO2 pricing, suchas coal phase-out plans, efficiency standards and renewable targets (Tables B.6 - B.11).
These policies interact with carbon pricing; therefore, CO2 pricing is not the marginal
cost of abatement as it is often the case in other modelling approaches.

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

B.3

Fossil fuel resources

Table B.3 ⊳Remaining technically recoverable fossil fuel resources, 2022

Oil(billion barrels)

Proven Resources Conventional
reserves
crude oil

Tight
oil

NGLs

EHOB

Kerogenoil

North America

220

2 392

235

215

146

797

1 000

Central and South America

303

854

247

57

49

497

3

Europe

14

111

56

19

28

3

6

Africa

125

451

312

54

83

2

-

Middle East

900

1 122

878

29

171

14

30

Eurasia

146

937

224

85

58

552

18

Asia Pacific

51

275

120

72

64

3

16

World

1 760

6 142

2 071

531

600

1 868

1 073

Natural gas(trillion cubic metres)

Provenreserves

Resources Conventional
gas

Tight
gas

Shale
gas

CoalbedmethaneNorth America

17

147

50

10

81

7

Central and South America

9

84

28

15

41

-

Europe

5

46

18

5

18

5

Africa

19

101

51

10

40

0

Middle East

83

121

101

9

11

-

Eurasia

69

167

129

10

10

17

Asia Pacific

21

138

44

21

53

20

World

222

803

421

80

253

49

Coal
(billion tonnes)

Provenreserves

Resources

Coking
coal

Steam
coal

LigniteNorth America

257

8 389

1 119

5 751

1 519

Central and South America

14

60

3

32

25

Europe

137

982

164

414

403

Africa

15

343

46

296

-

Middle East
Eurasia
Asia Pacific
World

1

41

36

5

-

191

2 015

386

997

632

460

8 974

1 736

5 810

1 428

1 074

20 8043 490

13 306

4 007

Notes: NGLs = natural gas liquids; EHOB = extra-heavy oil and bitumen. The breakdown of coal resources bytype is an IEA estimate. Coal world resources exclude Antarctica.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Sources: BGR (2021); BP (2022); CEDIGAZ (2022); OGJ (2022); US EIA (2013, 2015, 2023); USGS (2012a, 2012b);
IEA databases and analysis.

B
Annex B | Design of the scenarios

299

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

The World Energy Outlook supply modelling relies on estimates of the remaining
technically recoverable resource, rather than the (often more widely quoted) numbers
for proven reserves. Resource estimates are subject to a considerable degree of
uncertainty, as well as the distinction in the analysis between conventional andunconventional resource types.

Overall, the remaining technical recoverable resources of fossil fuels remain similar to
the World Energy Outlook-2022. All fuels are at a level comfortably sufficient to meetthe projections of global energy demand growth to 2050 in all scenarios. Remaining
technically recoverable resources of US tight oil (crude plus condensate) total more than
200 billion barrels.

Overall, the gradual depletion of resources (at a pace that varies by scenario) means that
operators have to develop more difficult and complex reservoirs. This tends to push up
production costs over time, although this effect is offset by the assumed continuous
adoption of new, more efficient production technologies and practices.

World coal resources are made up of various types of coal: around 80% is steam andcoking coal and the remainder is lignite. Coal resources are more available in parts of
the world without substantial natural gas and oil resources, notably in Asia.

300

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

B.4

Electricity generation technology costs

Table B.4a ⊳Technology costs in selected regions in theStated Policies Scenario

Capital costs(USD/kW)

Capacity factor(%)

2022 2030 2050

Fuel, CO2, O&M(USD/MWh)LCOE(USD/MWh)

VALCOE(USD/MWh)2022 2030 2050 2022 2030 2050 2022 2030 2050 2022 2030 2050

United States
Nuclear

5 000 4 800 4 500

90

90

90

30

30

30

105 105 100

105 105 100

Coal

2 100 2 100 2 100

35

15 n.a.

30

25

25

100 210 n.a.

100 205 n.a.

Gas CCGT

1 000 1 000 1 000

55

40

15

45

40

40

65

70 120656575Solar PV

1 120

480

21

22

23

10

10

10

50

30

25

55

55

60

Wind onshore 1 220 1 160 1 110

690

42

43

44

10

10

10

30

30

30

35

40

40

Wind offshore 4 060 2 520 1 900

42

46

49

35

20

15

120

70

50

125

80

60

70

75

80

35

35

35

160 130 110

European Union
Nuclear

6 600 5 100 4 500

Coal

2 000 2 000 2 000

30 n.a. n.a.

125 150 160

205 n.a. n.a.

190 n.a. n.a.

Gas CCGT

1 000 1 000 1 000

20

10 n.a.

170 125 130

230 270 n.a.

205 190 n.a.

450

14

14

14

10

10

10

65

40

35

80

85

90

Wind onshore 1 750 1 670 1 610

29

30

30

20

15

15

60

55

55

65

65

60

Wind offshore 3 420 2 280 1 740

50

56

59

15

10

10

75

45

35

75

55

40

Solar PV

990

620

160 130 110

China

80

75

70

25

25

25

70

70

65

70

70

65

Coal

800

800

800

50

30

20

50

60

70

65

90 11565

70

65

Gas CCGT

560

560

560

30

20

15

95

95 100120 130 140

105 100

90

Solar PV

720

430

300

13

13

14

10

10

10

50

30

65

60

70

Wind onshore 1 100 1 040 1 000

26

27

28

10

10

10

45

40

35

50

50

50

Wind offshore 2 820 1 880 1 420

32

39

43

25

15

10

100

60

40

105

65

40

Nuclear

2 800 2 800 2 500

25

India
Nuclear

2 800 2 800 2 800

80

85

90

30

30

30

70

70

65

70

70

65

Coal

1 200 1 200 1 200

65

70

70

40

35

30

60

55

50

60

50

40

Gas CCGT

700

700

700

25

40

45

95

70

60

125

90

80

120

70

50

Solar PV

640

390

270

20

21

22

5

5

5

40

25

15

45

40

55

Wind onshore 1 120 1 060 1 010

26

28

30

15

10

10

55

45

40

60

50

55

Wind offshore 3 060 2 060 1 500

33

37

39

25

20

15

135

85

60

135

90

65

Notes: O&M = operation and maintenance; LCOE = levelised cost of electricity; VALCOE = value-adjusted LCOE;
kW = kilowatt; MWh = megawatt-hour; CCGT = combined-cycle gas turbine; n.a. = not applicable. Cost
components, LCOE and VALCOE figures are rounded. Lower values for VALCOE indicate improved
competitiveness.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Sources: IEA analysis; IRENA (2023).

B
Annex B | Design of the scenarios

301

Table B.4b ⊳Technology costs in selected regions in the
Announced Pledges Scenario
Capital costs(USD/kW)

Capacity factor(%)

Fuel, CO2 and O&M(USD/MWh)LCOE(USD/MWh)2022 2030 2050

2022 2030 2050

2022 2030 2050

2022 2030 2050

United States
Nuclear

5 000 4 800 4 500

90

90

90

30

30

30

105

105

100

Coal

2 100 2 100 2 100

30

n.a.

n.a.

90

150

180

175

n.a.

n.a.

Gas CCGT

1 000 1 000 1 000

50

25

n.a.

70

90

95

95

135

n.a.

Solar PV

1 120

460

21

22

23

10

10

10

50

30

25

Wind onshore

1 220 1 150 1 080

42

43

44

10

10

10

30

30

30

Wind offshore

4 060 2 440 1 720

42

46

49

35

20

15

120

70

45

Nuclear

6 600 5 100 4 500

70

80

80

35

35

35

155

120

110

Coal

2 000 2 000 2 000

30

n.a.

n.a.

135

175

215

220

n.a.

n.a.

Gas CCGT

1 000 1 000 1 000

25

10

n.a.

170

130

140

220

270

n.a.

410

14

14

14

10

10

10

65

40

30

Wind onshore

1 750 1 650 1 570

29

30

30

20

15

15

60

55

50

Wind offshore

3 420 2 200 1 540

50

56

59

15

10

5

75

45

30

2 800 2 800 2 500

660

European Union

Solar PV

990

600

China

75

70

70

25

25

25

70

70

65

Coal

800

800

800

50

25

15

55

85

150

70

125

220

Gas CCGT

560

560

560

35

30

20

100

110

125

120

130

160

720

Nuclear

420

290

13

13

14

10

10

5

50

30

25

Wind onshore

1 100 1 030

980

26

27

28

10

10

10

45

40

35

Wind offshore

2 820 1 820 1 280

32

39

43

25

15

10

100

55

35

Nuclear

2 800 2 800 2 800

75

85

90

30

30

30

70

70

65

Coal

1 200 1 200 1 200

65

70

50

40

65

165

60

85

195
140

Solar PV

India

Gas CCGT

700

700

700

25

35

25

90

75

105

120

95

Solar PV

640

380

250

20

21

22

5

5

5

40

25

15

Wind onshore

1 120 1 050

980

26

28

30

15

10

10

55

45

40

Wind offshore

3 060 1 980 1 340

33

37

39

25

20

10

135

85

55

Notes: O&M = operation and maintenance; LCOE = levelised cost of electricity; kW = kilowatt; MWh =megawatt-hour; CCGT = combined-cycle gas turbine; n.a. = not applicable. Cost components and LCOE figures
are rounded.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Sources: IEA analysis; IRENA (2023).

302

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Table B.4c ⊳Technology costs in selected regions in the
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario
Capital costs(USD/kW)

Capacity factor(%)

Fuel, CO2 and O&M(USD/MWh)LCOE(USD/MWh)2022 2030 2050

2022 2030 2050

2022 2030 2050

2022 2030 2050

United States
Nuclear

5 000 4 800 4 500

90

90

85

30

30

30

105

105

105

Coal

2 100 2 100 2 100

30

n.a.

n.a.

90

155

220

185

n.a.

n.a.

Gas CCGT

1 000 1 000 1 000

50

25

n.a.

70

85

110

95

135

n.a.

Solar PV

1 120

440

21

22

23

10

10

10

50

30

25

Wind onshore

1 220 1 140 1 070

42

43

44

10

10

10

30

30

25

Wind offshore

4 060 2 360 1 640

42

46

49

35

20

15

120

65

45

Nuclear

6 600 5 100 4 500

70

75

65

35

35

35

160

130

125

Coal

2 000 2 000 2 000

25

n.a.

n.a.

140

185

250

235

n.a.

n.a.

Gas CCGT

1 000 1 000 1 000

25

10

n.a.

165

125

150

215

240

n.a.

410

14

14

14

10

10

10

65

40

30

Wind onshore

1 750 1 640 1 550

29

30

30

20

15

15

60

55

50

Wind offshore

3 420 2 140 1 500

50

56

59

15

10

5

75

45

30

2 800 2 800 2 500

640

European Union

Solar PV

990

580

China

85

80

75

25

25

25

65

65

65

Coal

800

800

800

55

n.a.

n.a.

70

120

180

90

n.a.

n.a.

Gas CCGT

560

560

560

45

35

n.a.

110

125

145

120

140

n.a.

720

Nuclear

410

280

13

13

14

10

10

5

50

30

20

Wind onshore

1 100 1 030

960

26

27

28

10

10

10

45

40

35

Wind offshore

2 820 1 760 1 220

32

39

43

25

15

10

100

55

35

Nuclear

2 800 2 800 2 800

75

85

90

30

30

30

70

70

65

Coal

1 200 1 200 1 200

65

n.a.

n.a.

40

105

200

60

n.a.

n.a.

Solar PV

India

Gas CCGT

700

700

700

25

30

n.a.

80

75

110

110

100

n.a.

Solar PV

640

360

240

20

21

22

5

5

5

40

20

15

Wind onshore

1 120 1 040

960

26

28

30

15

10

10

55

45

40

Wind offshore

3 060 1 840 1 260

33

37

39

25

15

10

135

75

50

Notes: O&M = operation and maintenance; LCOE = levelised cost of electricity; kW = kilowatt; MWh =megawatt-hour; CCGT = combined-cycle gas turbine; n.a. = not applicable. Cost components and LCOE figures
are rounded.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Sources: IEA analysis; IRENA (2023).

B
Annex B | Design of the scenarios

303

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

All costs are expressed in year-2022 dollars.



Major contributors to the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) include: overnight capitalcosts; capacity factor that describes the average output over the year relative to the
maximum rated capacity (typical values provided); cost of fuel inputs; plus operationand maintenance. Economic lifetime assumptions are 25 years for solar PV, and onshore
and offshore wind.

Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions reflect market data and survey
information provided through the Cost of Capital Observatory (IEA, 2023), updated
analysis for utility-scale solar PV in the World Energy Outlook-2020 (IEA, 2020), with arange of 4-7%, and for offshore wind analysis from the Offshore Wind Outlook 2019 (IEA,
2019), with a range of 5-8%. Onshore wind was assumed to have the same WACC as
utility-scale solar PV. A standard WACC was assumed for nuclear power, coal-fired andgas-fired power plants (8-9% based on the stage of economic development).



The value-adjusted levelised cost of electricity (VALCOE) incorporates information on
both costs and the value provided to the system. Based on the LCOE, estimates ofenergy, capacity and flexibility value are incorporated to provide a more complete
metric of competitiveness for power generation technologies.

Fuel, CO2 and operation and maintenance costs reflect the average over the ten years
following the indicated date in the projections (and therefore vary by scenario in 2022).

Solar PV and wind costs do not include the cost of energy storage technologies, such asutility-scale batteries.



The capital costs for nuclear power represent the “nth-of-a-kind” costs for new reactor
designs, with substantial cost reductions from the first-of-a-kind projects.

304

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

B.5

Other key technology costs

Table B.5 ⊳Capital costs for selected technologies by scenario
Stated Policies
2022

2030

2050

340-500

340-450n.a

590-770

Announced Pledges
2030

Net Zero Emissions
by 2050

2050

2030

2050

360-490380-630 490-690

440-650590-740570-730590-780 540-700

600-760

570-720Iron-based steel production(USD/tpa)
Conventional
Innovative
Vehicles (USD/vehicle)
Hybrid cars

16 80015 30015 40015 20015 30015 10015 200Battery electric cars

20 50016 60014 70016 10014 10015 60013 7001 070-1 640

630-980

530-740

540-710 360-510

420-610330-470

95

65

45

55

35

50

30

315

185

140

180

135

175

130

Batteries and hydrogen
Hydrogen electrolysers(USD/kW)
Fuel cells (USD/kW)
Utility-scale stationary
batteries (USD/kWh)

Notes: kW = kilowatt; tpa = tonne per annum; kWh = kilowatt-hour; n.a. = not applicable. All values are in
USD (2022).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Sources: IEA analysis; James et. al. (2018); Thompson, et al. (2018); Financial Times (2020); BNEF (2022); Coleet al. (2021); Tsiropoulos et al. (2018); JATO (2021).
All costs represent fully installed/delivered technologies, not solely the module cost,
unless otherwise noted. Installed/delivered costs include engineering, procurement andconstruction costs to install the module.



Iron-based steel production costs display a range considering technology and regional
differences and differentiate between conventional and innovative production routes.
Conventional routes are blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) and direct reducediron-electric arc furnace (DRI-EAF). The innovative routes are innovative smelting
reduction with carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS), DRI-EAF with CCUS, 100%
electrolytic hydrogen-based DRI-EAF and iron ore electrolysis.

Vehicle costs reflect production costs, not retail prices, to better reflect the cost declines
in total cost of manufacturing, which move independently of final market prices forelectric vehicles to customers.

Electrolyser costs reflect a weighted average among different electrolysis technologies.
The lower value for hydrogen electrolysers refers to China and the upper one to the restof the world.



Fuel cell costs are based on stack manufacturing costs only, not installed/delivered
costs. The costs provided are for automotive fuel cell stacks for light-duty vehicles.



Utility-scale stationary battery costs reflect the average installed costs of all battery
systems rated to provide maximum power output for a four-hour period.

Annex B | Design of the scenarios

305

B

B.6

Policies

The policy actions assumed to be taken by governments are key variables in this World
Energy Outlook (WEO). An overview of the policies and measures that are considered in thevarious scenarios is included in Tables B.6 to B.11. The tables do not include all policies andmeasures, but rather highlight the policies most prominent in shaping global energy demand
today, while being derived from an exhaustive examination of announcements and plans incountries around the world.
The tables begin with broad cross-cutting policy frameworks, followed by more detailed
policies by sector: power, industry, buildings and transport. The tables highlight policies andtargets for both the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) and the Announced Pledges Scenario(APS). For the STEPS, the tables list both new policies enacted, implemented or revised since
the publication of the WEO-2022, as well as significant established long-term policies thathave a major influence on the outcomes in the STEPS. It does not take for granted that all
government targets will be reached. Targets that are achieved or surpassed in the STEPS arelisted, indicating the most recent IEA assessment that concrete implementation plans areable to deliver on the targets.
For the APS, targets not realised in the STEPS and announced policies to achieve these targets
are listed. It indicates additional policy efforts to realise them. The APS assumes all policies
included in the STEPS to remain in force.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Some regional policies have been included in the tables if they play a significant role inshaping the energy landscape at a global scale, e.g. regional carbon markets, efficiency
standards in very large provinces or states. This World Energy Outlook, for the first time,
includes various industry-led targets for energy and climate, presented in Table B.11. A morecomprehensive list of energy-related policies by country can be viewed on the IEA Policies
and Measures Database at: http://www.iea.org/policies.

306

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Table B.6 ⊳Cross-cutting policy assumptions for selected
regions/countries by scenario

Region/country

Scenario

Assumptions

United States

STEPS• Energy provisions in: Inflation Reduction Act (2022); Consolidated Appropriations Act(2021); and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (2021).
• Defence Production Act deployment supporting domestic production of heat pumps,
building insulation equipment, solar panel components, transformers and batteries.
• US Methane Emissions Reduction Action Plan.

APS• Updated NDC aiming to reduce GHG emissions by 50-52% by 2030 (from 2005 levels)and national target to reach net zero GHG emissions by 2050.
• 2021 US Methane Emissions Reduction Action Plan. Commitment to the Global
Methane Pledge.

CanadaSTEPS• Energy and emissions reduction-related provisions in the 2020 Healthy Environment
and a Healthy Economy Plan; extended Investing in Canada Infrastructure
Programme; and Emissions Reduction Fund.
• Hydrogen Strategy and Strategic Innovation Fund.
• Regulation Respecting Reduction in the Release of Methane and Certain Volatile
Organic Compounds.

APS• Commitment to reach net zero GHG emissions target by 2050.
• Commitment to the Global Methane Pledge, and to reduce methane emissions fromthe oil and gas sector by 40-45% by 2025, and further by 75% by 2030 relative to
2012. Measures in the Healthy Environment and Healthy Economy action plan.

Latin America
and theCaribbean

STEPS• Colombia: Energy provisions in the Ten Milestones in 2021 Plan and the National
Strategy for Mitigation of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants.
• Chile: Energy Efficiency Law (2021), energy intensity reduction by at least 10% by
2030 compared to 2019.
• Brazil: National Methane emissions reduction programme.

APS• 16 pledges out of 33 countries to reach net zero emissions by 2050 or before,
including Brazil, Chile, Costa Rica and Colombia.
• Updated NDCs from Uruguay (0.9 Mt CO2 by 2030).
• Colombia: Main provisions of the announced Just Energy Transition roadmap.
• Nine countries committing to the Global Methane Pledge, including Argentina and
Mexico.

European Union

STEPS
APS

• Energy spending provisions in the European Green Deal and national recovery plans
elaborated within the framework of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility.
• Full implementation of the decarbonisation targets in the Fit for 55 package.
• Net zero emissions target by 2050 embedded in the 2021 European Climate Law.
• EU member country-level targets for carbon or climate neutrality before 2050:
Finland by 2035; Austria by 2040; Germany, Portugal and Sweden by 2045.
• Green Deal Industrial Plan targets enhancing the competitiveness of EU net zeroindustry.
• Targets in the EU Hydrogen Strategy for a Climate Neutral Europe.
• Partial implementation of the targets set in the REPowerEU Plan, eliminate theimport of Russian natural gas supply to the European Union well before 2030.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• 19 EU member states commitment to the Global Methane Pledge.

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Table B.6 ⊳Cross-cutting policy assumptions for selected
regions/countries by scenario (continued)

Region/country

Scenario

Assumptions

Other Europe

STEPS• United Kingdom: Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution and provisions of
the 2021 North Sea Transition Deal.
• Norway: 2021 Green Conversion Package.

APS• United Kingdom: Commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Net Zero
Strategy. Build Back Greener Plan. Energy Security Bill to provide public support fordomestic manufacturing.
• Climate neutrality targets by 2040 (Iceland), and 2050 (Switzerland and Norway).
• Türkiye: Updated NDC pledge for a peak in emissions by 2038. Pledge to reach net
zero emissions by 2053.

Australia and
New Zealand

STEPS• Australia: Spending and policy measures from the 2020 Climate Solutions Package;Powering Australia Plan; and Long-Term Emissions Reduction Plan.

APS• Australia: Full implementation of the 2022 Climate Change Bill emissions target,
including net zero emissions by 2050, and 43% emissions reduction by 2030 relative
to 2005.
• New Zealand: Net zero emissions target for all GHG except biogenic methane by
2050. Reduction by 50% relative to 2005 levels in the updated NDC. Commitment to
the Global Methane Pledge.

China

STEPS

• Made in China 2025 transition from heavy industry to higher value-added
manufacturing.
• 14th Five-Year Plan:o Reduce CO2 intensity of the economy by 18% from 2021 to 2025.

o Reduce energy intensity of the economy by 13.5% from 2021 to 2025.
o 20% non-fossil share of the energy mix by 2025, 25% by 2030.

• Updated NDC and Action Plan for CO2 to peak before 2030:
o Aim to peak CO2 emissions before 2030.

o Lower CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by over 65% from 2005 levels by 2030.

India

APS

• Carbon neutrality target by 2060.

STEPS• Energy-related elements of the Production Linked Incentives programme.
• Enhanced enforcement of energy efficiency policy under the 2022 amendments tothe Energy Conservation Act.
• National Green Hydrogen Mission.

APS• Updated NDC to reduce national emissions intensity by 45% by 2030 from 2005
levels.
• Commitment to reach net zero emissions by 2070.

Southeast Asia

STEPS

• Indonesia: 23% share of renewable energy in primary energy supply by 2025 and 31%
by 2050.
• Singapore: Green Plan 2030.

APS• Indonesia: Net zero emissions by 2060 or before.
• Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Singapore, Viet Nam: net zero emissions targets by
2050.
• Thailand: Climate neutrality by 2065.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Indonesia and Viet Nam.
• Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Viet Nam: Commitment to the Global Methane
Pledge.

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Table B.6 ⊳Cross-cutting policy assumptions for selected
regions/countries by scenario (continued)

Region/country

Scenario

Assumptions

Japan

STEPS

• 2023 Green Transformation (GX) basic policy, promoting renewable energy, offshore
wind cost reduction RD&D programmes, hydrogen supply chains and accelerated
nuclear policies.
• 2023 Basic Hydrogen Strategy to accelerate public and private investment in thehydrogen supply chain.

APS• Climate neutrality target by 2050.
• Updated NDC: Reduce GHG emissions by 46% by 2030 from 2013 levels.
• Commitment to the Global Methane Pledge.

Korea

STEPS

• 2023 new budget for energy technology development.
• Korean New Deal provisions on clean energy technologies.
• 10th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and Demand.

APS• Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth Act for Climate Change committing
to carbon neutrality by 2050.
• Full implementation of the First National Basic Plan for Carbon Neutrality and Green
Growth.

Middle East

APS

• Net zero emissions targets by 2050 in United Arab Emirates and Oman. Saudi Arabia,
Bahrain and Kuwait aiming for 2060.
• United Arab Emirates: Commitment to reduce emissions by 19% by 2030 from 2019
levels.
• Iraq Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative.
• Egypt and Oman: Commitment to the Global Methane Pledge.

Eurasia

APS• All NDCs and net zero emissions targets, including Kazakhstan in 2060 and theRussian Federation net zero emissions pledge with a strong reliance on sinks fromland-use, land-use change and forestry.
• Kazakhstan National Methane Emissions Inventory and Reduction Programme.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario; APS = Announced Pledges Scenario; NDC = Nationally Determined Contribution(Paris Agreement); CCUS = carbon capture, utilisation and storage; GHG = greenhouse gases; GW = gigawatt; Gt =gigatonnes; Mt = megatonnes; RD&D = research development and demonstration.

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Annex B | Design of the scenarios309

Table B.7 ⊳Region/country

Electricity sector policies and measures as modelledby scenario for selected regions/countries

Scenario

Assumptions

UnitedStatesSTEPS• Inflation Reduction Act (2022) grants and tax credits for renewables, nuclear power and
CCUS.
• 100% carbon-free electricity or energy targets by 2050 in up to 21 states plus Puerto Ricoand Washington DC.
• 30 GW offshore wind capacity by 2030.
• 22 updated renewable portfolio standard policies in 2022/23 (including Connecticut,
Hawaii, Rhode Island, Minnesota).

APS• G7 commitment: Achieve predominantly decarbonised electricity sector by 2035.

CanadaSTEPS• Reach nearly 90% non-emitting renewables generation by 2030.
• Phase out conventional coal-fired plants by 2030.

APS• G7 commitment: Achieve predominantly decarbonised electricity sector by 2035.

STEPS• 16 member states have coal phase-out commitments. Spain aims to phase out coal by2025, five years earlier than its former announcement. Nine EU member states are alreadycoal free.
• Updated development plans and targets for offshore wind by 2030, notably in Germany(30 GW) and the Netherlands (21 GW).

APS

• Higher targets for renewables (42.5% renewables share of gross final consumption by2030) within the Fit for 55 package.
• G7 commitment: Achieve predominantly decarbonised electricity sector by 2035.

Other
EuropeAPS• United Kingdom: Energy Security Plan sets targets to expand offshore wind, solar PV andnuclear power.

AfricaSTEPS• Partial implementation of national electrification strategies.
• South Africa: Increased renewables capacity and reduced coal-fired capacity under the2019 Integrated Resource Plan.

APS• Kenya: 100% renewable electricity by 2030.
• Senegal: 32% renewable grid-connected installed capacity by 2030.
• Full implementation of national electrification targets.

China

STEPS

• 14th Five-year Plan for Renewables targets for 3 300 TWh of renewables by 2025, a
twofold increase in solar and wind generation, and for over 50% of incremental electricity
consumption to be met by renewables.
• At least 1 200 GW of installed solar and wind capacity by 2030.

APS• Overall coal use to decline in the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2025-2030).

India

STEPS

• Updated Nationally Determined Contribution: 50% cumulative electric power installedcapacity from non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030.
• Reach 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030.

Japan

STEPS

• Achieve electricity generation outlook by 2030 in the 6th Strategic Energy Plan.
• Restart nuclear power plants aligned with the 6th Strategic Energy Plan and the Green
Transformation (GX) policy initiative.

APS• Accelerated nuclear expansion, including small modular reactors, under discussion in theGreen Transformation (GX) Implementation Council.
• Green Growth Strategy: 30-45 GW of offshore wind capacity in 2040.
• 6th Strategic Energy Plan, with additional policies to support renewables in power
generation to reach 2030 targets.
• G7 commitment: Achieve predominantly decarbonised electricity sectors by 2035.

European
Union

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• G7 commitment: Achieve predominantly decarbonised electricity sector by 2035.

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Table B.7 ⊳Region/country
Latin
Americaand theCaribbean

Electricity sector policies and measures as modelledby scenario for selected regions/countries(continued)

Scenario

Assumptions

STEPS• Argentina: National Energy Transition Plan to 2030 aims at least 50% of renewableelectricity, of which 1 GW is distributed power by 2030.
• Brazil: At least 23% renewables (excluding hydropower) in the power supply by 2030.
• Chile: Phase out unabated coal use by 2040.
• 24 out of 33 countries have targets to expand installed capacity of renewables.

APS• Colombia: New National Energy Plan, target to reach 100% renewable electricity by 2050.
• Costa Rica: Generation Expansion Plan 2022-2040 target for 1 775 MW of solar and windcapacity.

Australia
and New
Zealand

STEPS• Australia: 82% renewable electricity generation by 2030.

Korea

STEPS

• Increase both nuclear and renewables in electricity generation to about 35%, and decreasecoal-fired power by 2036 under the 10th Basic Plan for Long-term Electricity Supply and
Demand.

APS• Power sector reduction target to 45.9% by 2030 from 2018 levels in the 2023 update of the
National Basic Plans for Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth.

STEPS• Viet Nam: Power Development Plan 8 targets for 2030 include: solar capacity to increase by
4 GW; onshore wind to reach 22 GW; offshore wind to reach 6 GW; hydropower to reach
29 GW; natural gas to reach 38 GW; and coal-fired capacity to peak at 30 GW.

Southeast
Asia• Cambodia: Power Development Plan 2022-2040 targets 3.1 GW of solar capacity and 3 GWof hydropower by 2040.
APS• Indonesia: Renewable energy accounts for half (21 GW) of total power capacity additions
under the National Electricity Supply Business Plan 2019-2028.
• Indonesia adopted regulations for early retirement of coal-fired power plants and a
moratorium on new coal plants after 2030.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario; APS = Announced Pledges Scenario. TWh = terawatt-hour; GW = gigawatt;
MW = megawatt.

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Annex B | Design of the scenarios

311

Table B.8 ⊳Region/country

Scenario

Assumptions

All regions

APS• UN Resolution to end plastic pollution with a ban on single-use plastics.

United States

STEPS• Inflation Reduction Act (2022): Clean manufacturing tax credits for CCUS.
• Carbon Utilization Procurement Grants: USD 100 million available to support states,
local governments and public utilities for purchasing procurements of products
derived from captured CO2 emissions.

APS• Department of Energy Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap: 80% emissions reduction
compared to 2015 from energy efficiency, CCUS and switching to low-emissions fuels.
• Federal Buy Clean Initiative: Public procurement of low-carbon construction materials.

CanadaSTEPS• Clean industry packages and provisions to promote clean industry, as part of Building
Canada's Clean Industrial Advantage.

Latin America
and theCaribbean

STEPS• Brazil: Energy efficiency guarantee fund.
• Argentina: Industry 4.0 development plan to promote efficiency and high-techindustries.
• Colombia: 25% tax break on energy efficiency investments.

APS• Argentina, Brazil and Chile: Product Efficiency Call to Action initiative aims to double
the efficiency of lighting, cooling and motors by 2030.

STEPS• Emissions Trading System update: 2.2% annual reductions of emissions allowances.
• Innovation Fund support for renewables, energy-intensive industries, storage and
CCUS.
• Sweden: Government credit guarantees for green investment.
• France 2030: EUR 5.6 billion for heavy industry decarbonisation.

APS• Net Zero Industry Act: Target to reach 40% of near zero emissions material production
capacity in capacity additions in the European Union by 2030.

STEPS• United Kingdom: Industrial Decarbonisation Challenge. Pilot funding forlow-emissions industrial clusters, and Industrial Energy Transformation Fund fundingfor energy efficiency. UK emissions trading system.

APS• United Kingdom: Industrial Decarbonisation Strategy and Net Zero Strategy, including
a target to capture and store 20-30 Mt CO2 per year by 2030.

Australia and
New Zealand

STEPS• Australia: National Hydrogen Strategy to develop clean hydrogen.

China

STEPS

• Made in China 2025 targets for industrial energy intensity.
• Reduce comprehensive energy consumption per tonne of steel by 2% by 2025.

APS• Expansion of the emissions trading system coverage to industry.
• Made in China 2025: Raising domestic content of electronic and transportationindustries core components and materials to 70% by 2025.

India

STEPS

• Perform, Achieve and Trade Scheme to trade energy saving credits.
• Make in India programme. Construction of 11 industrial corridors.
• Production Linked Incentives provide subsidies related to new manufacturing capacity
for solar PV and modern batteries.

Japan

STEPS

• Green Innovation Fund provides R&D funding for innovative technology.

APS• Technology Roadmap for Transition Finance in the cement, pulp and paper branches.

STEPS• Korean New Deal government investment in industrial energy efficiency by 2025.

European
Union

Other Europe

Korea

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Industry sector policies and measures as modelledby scenario for selected regions/countries

Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario; APS = Announced Pledges Scenario; CCUS = carbon capture, utilisation andstorage; R&D = research and development; UN = United Nations.

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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Buildings sector policies and measures as modelledby scenario for selected regions/countries

Table B.9 ⊳Region/country
UnitedStatesScenario
STEPS

Assumptions• Inflation Reduction Act (2022): Tax rebates for heat pumps and energy efficiency
upgrades in residential and commercial buildings.
• 2023 update to minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) for central air
conditioners and heat pumps.

APS• State and local implementation of energy smart and zero energy building codes.
• Federal Building Performance Standard: Achieve net zero emissions in all federalbuildings by 2045 with interim targets for electrification and decarbonisation.

CanadaSTEPS• Large-scale energy-efficient retrofits as part of the Canada Infrastructure Bank growthplan. Greener Homes Grant and interest-free loans for deep home retrofits.
• Updated National Energy Code of Canada for Buildings.
• Oil to Heat Pump Affordability Programme.
• Updated appliance efficiency standards.

Latin
Americaand theCaribbean

APS• All new buildings meet zero-carbon-ready standards by 2030.

STEPS• Argentina: Strengthened building energy codes and mandatory efficiency labelling for
new social housing.
• Colombia: Support for efficient lighting, efficient refrigerators and substitution of
firewood use with LPG or electric cooking stoves.
• MEPS for major residential appliances and equipment, including in: Argentina, Brazil,
Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru.

APS• Chile: Energy 2050 Strategy: All households to have access to low-emissions sources forheating and cooking by 2040; all new buildings to be net zero energy use by 2050.
• All national clean cooking targets are met. Three countries are already in compliancewith the SDG 7, which aims to ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable andmodern energy for all by 2030.

European
Union

STEPS

• Country-level government incentives and investment in energy efficiency in buildings
and appliance upgrades, within the framework of the EU Recovery and Resilience
Facility.
• Country-level building code upgrades.
• National and subnational bans and policies to limit the installation of certain fossil fuelboilers in buildings.

APS• Energy Performance of Buildings Directive: Objective to achieve a highly energyefficient and decarbonised building stock by 2050. All new buildings to be net zero
emissions by 2028. Retrofits required for existing buildings with lowest energy
performance. Fossil fuel heating systems banned in new or renovated buildings.
• Renovation Wave: Objective to double the rate of building energy retrofits by 2030.

Other
EuropeSTEPS• Norway: Ban on fossil fuel heating installations, financial incentives for heat pumps,
minimum efficiency standards for heating.
• Türkiye: Minimum efficiency and renewable consumption standards for large buildings.
• United Kingdom: Low-Carbon Heat Support and Heat Networks Investment Project;2023 Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund; Home Upgrade Grant allocations; andfinancial incentives to purchase clean household technologies.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

APS

• Switzerland: Annual renovation rate target of 3% of the building stock by 2035.
• National and subnational bans and policies to limit the installation of certain fossil fuelboilers in buildings.

Annex B | Design of the scenarios

313

BTable B.9 ⊳Region/country

Scenario

AfricaSTEPS

Buildings sector policies and measures as modelledby scenario for selected regions/countries (continued)
Assumptions• Southern African Development Community: lighting standards.
• MEPS for major residential appliances and equipment, including in Algeria, Benin, Egypt,
Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Rwanda, South Africa and Tunisia.

Australia
and New
Zealand

APS• All national clean cooking targets met. Eight countries are already in compliance with theSDG 7.

STEPS• Australia: Funding for energy efficiency measures, including energy rating labels and statefunding for buildings retrofits. Energy efficiency standards for new homes upgraded in
2023.
• New Zealand: Replacement of all coal-fired boilers in schools with electric or renewablebiomass alternatives by 2025.

China

STEPS

• Standard set for maximum energy consumption per square metre in buildings.
• Green and High-Efficiency Cooling Action Plan.
• MEPS and energy efficiency labelling for room air conditioners.

APS• 14th Five-Year Plan related to energy conservation in buildings: Target to reach solar PV
capacity of 50 GW in new buildings by 2025. Geothermal energy for 100 million square
metres of buildings floorspace.
• Carbon neutrality / peaking blueprint: Retrofit public buildings in key cities so that they
are 20% more energy efficient by 2030. Increased use of low-carbon materials and re-useof construction waste.

India

STEPS

• Energy Conservation and Sustainable Building Code as part of the Energy Conservation Bill(amendment), comprising norms or energy efficiency and conservation, minimum use ofrenewable energy and other green building requirements.
• Cooling Action Plan. Standards and labelling for commercial air conditioners, freezers andlight bulbs.
• Energy efficiency labelling for residential buildings.

APS• Smart Meter National Programme to facilitate demand-side reductions.
• AC @ 24 Campaign incentivising behavioural change to reduce cooling energy demand.

Japan

STEPS

• National Budget 2021: Allocation to decarbonise and promote resilience in buildings.
• Subsidies for highly efficient heat pumps. 2016 Buildings Energy Efficiency Act: Standards.

Korea

APS

• New residential and services buildings collectively meet the net zero energy home or net
zero energy buildings standards by 2030.

STEPS• Rebate for purchase of appliances entitled to energy efficiency grade 1.
• Korean New Deal: Increased funding to improve the efficiency of schools, public housing,and recreational and healthcare facilities.

APS• Green Building Construction Support Act provides administrative and financial support topromote the creation of green buildings.

STEPS• Malaysia: MEPS and efficiency labelling for washing machines, refrigerators and air
conditioners.

• All new buildings meet zero-carbon-ready standards starting in 2030.
Southeast
Asia• Philippines: Minimum requirements for energy efficiency of new and retrofitted buildings.
• Singapore: Building codes for new buildings and the refurbishment of existing buildings.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• Viet Nam: MEPS and efficiency labelling for appliances and lighting in buildings.
Note: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario; APS = Announced Pledges Scenario; GW = gigawatt; LPG = liquefied petroleum
gas; MEPS = minimum energy performance standards; SDG = Sustainable Development Goals.

314International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Table B.10 ⊳Transport sector policies and measures as modelledby scenario for selected regions/countries

Region/country

Scenario

Assumptions

All regions

APS• Zero Emissions Vehicles Declaration: Signed by 41 governments declares that all salesof new cars and vans are to be zero emissions globally by 2040, and by no later than
2035 in leading markets.
• Heavy-duty vehicles: Global MoU signed by 22 countries that targets 100% of new
heavy-duty truck and bus sales to be zero emissions by 2040.

United States

STEPS• Inflation Reduction Act (2022): Provides for tax credits for electric car purchases andinvestments in EV charging infrastructure to 2032. Tax credits for biofuels including
sustainable aviation fuel.
• Target of 50% of all new passenger car sales to be zero emissions vehicles by 2030.
• Fuel economy standards to improve 8% per year for passenger cars and light trucks
for model years 2024-2025 and baseline requirement of 10% for model year 2026
relative to 2021 levels. GHG emissions standards for model years 2023-2026 that
require 5-10% emissions reductions per year.
• National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Formula Programme: Funding forconstruction of EV charging infrastructure.
• California: Advanced Clean Cars II regulation aims to achieve 100% zero emissions
passenger cars and light truck sales by 2035. In addition, Advanced Clean trucks andfleets regulations require an increase in sales of zero emissions medium-duty andheavy-duty trucks. Other states have announced similar actions.

APS• Announced multi-pollutant emissions standards for passenger cars and light-duty
vehicles. Proposed Phase 3 of heavy-duty vehicles emissions standards.
• Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge to scale up the production of at least
3 billion gallons per year by 2030, and sufficient sustainable aviation fuel to meet
100% of domestic aviation demand by 2050.
• 100% of medium-duty and heavy-duty truck sales to be zero emissions vehicles by
2040.

CanadaAPS• Emissions Reduction Plan: Target to achieve 100% zero emissions light-duty vehicles
in new vehicle sales by 2035.
• 100% of new medium-duty and heavy-duty truck sales to be zero emissions vehicles
by 2040.
• Target for 10% sustainable aviation fuel use by 2030.

Latin America
and theCaribbean

STEPS
APS

• Brazil: Biodiesel blending mandate to increase to 15% by 2026.
• Argentina: 35% of the vehicles sales are to be electric or hybrids by 2030.
• Colombia: 600 000 EVs on the road by 2030 (excluding two/three- wheelers).
• Chile: All light-duty vehicle and urban bus sales are to be zero emissions by 2035 andmedium-duty and heavy-duty truck sales by 2040.
• Costa Rica: Target of 100% of new light-duty vehicles sales to be zero emissions
vehicles from 2050.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

• Mexico: All sales of new cars and vans to be zero emissions by 2040.

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Annex B | Design of the scenarios

315

Table B.10 ⊳Region/country
European
Union

Transport sector policies and measures as modelledby scenario for selected regions/countries (continued)

Scenario
STEPS

Assumptions• 100% CO2 emissions reduction for both new cars and vans from 2035, emissions
standards for heavy-duty vehicles and FuelEU maritime initiative.
• Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation to accelerate EV recharging infrastructure
deployment.
• Renewable Energy Directive II to supply a minimum of 14% of the energy consumed inroad and rail transport from renewable energy by 2030.

APS• Emissions per km from new heavy-duty vehicles to decrease by 90% by 2040, relative tothe reference period (mid-2019 – mid-2020).
• Revised Clean Vehicles Directive including minimum requirements for aggregate public
procurement for zero emissions urban buses.
• ReFuelEU Aviation sets a 70% blending mandate of sustainable aviation fuelsby 2050, with a sub-obligation for synthetic fuels.
• FuelEU Maritime initiative targets the reduction of average GHG intensity of energy
used on-board by ships up to 75% by 2050 relative to 2020 levels.

Other Europe

STEPS• United Kingdom: 10% ethanol blend mandate by 2032.
• Switzerland: 100% of new light-duty vehicle sales to be zero emissions by 2040.

APS• Türkiye: 100% of medium-duty and heavy-duty truck new sales to be zero emissions
vehicles by 2040.

APS• Australia: National Electric Vehicle Strategy includes details of state-level targets andincentives.

• Norway: Target for 30% sustainable aviation fuel target by 2030.
Australia and
New Zealand• New Zealand: 100% of new cars and van sales to be zero emissions by 2035. Targets
zero emissions vehicles to make up 100% of urban bus sales by 2025 and 100% of stockby 2035. Increase zero emissions vehicles to 30% of the light-duty vehicle fleet by 2035.
Japan

STEPS

• Fuel economy standard for light-duty vehicles to improve fuel efficiency by 32% to 2030
relative to 2016 levels.

APS• Green Growth Strategy and 6th Strategic Energy Plan aims for sales of 100% EVs(including hybrids) for passenger cars by 2035 and for light commercial vehicles by
2040.
• Mandate for 10% sustainable aviation fuel use by 2030 for national airlines.

Korea

STEPS

• Grants available for the purchase of private and commercial light-duty electric vehicles
and subsidies for electric buses.
• Subsidies for shifting from road freight to rail.
• Target of one-third of new passenger car sales to be EVs or fuel cell electric vehicles by
2030.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

APS

316

• Target for zero emissions vehicles by 2030: 50% of passenger car sales to be hybrid orplug-in hybrid vehicles; and 33% to be battery electric or fuel cell electric vehicles.

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Table B.10 ⊳Transport sector policies and measures as modelledby scenario for selected regions/countries (continued)

Region/country

Scenario

China

STEPS

Assumptions• Corporate average fuel consumption target of 4.0 litres/100 km in 2025
and 3.2 litres/100 km in 2030.
• New Energy Automobile Industry Development Plan (2021-2035): Exceeds
government targets of 20% new energy vehicle sales in 2025 and 40% new energy
and clean energy-powered vehicles in 2030.
• China Society of Automotive Engineers target: EV car sales to reach more than half by2035 including 1 million FCEVs.
• Extension of tax exemption for new energy vehicles to 2027.
• National railway investments.

India

APS

• Installation of charging infrastructure for more than 20 million EVs by 2025.

STEPS• New EV policy to support deployment of charging infrastructure, electric mobility inpublic transportation and purchases incentives.
• Urban and public transit investments.
• Partial implementation of 20% bioethanol blending target for gasoline and 5%
biodiesel in 2025-2026.
• Extension of FAME II subsidies for EVs including support for 500 000 electric threewheelers and 1 million electric two-wheelers.

APS• Aim to electrify all broad-gauge rail networks by the end of 2023.
• National railway target of net zero emissions by 2030.

Southeast Asia

STEPS

• Indonesia: B30 programme to increase biodiesel blends from 30% to 40% mandate
by 2023. Subsidies to support deployment of battery electric vehicles.

APS• Indonesia: Government targets to have 2 million EVs in passenger light-duty vehicle
stock and 13 million electric motorcycles in the fleet by 2030.
• Thailand: Target for 100% zero emissions vehicles in new sales from 2035.
• Viet Nam: Net zero GHG emissions in the transport sector by 2050, with a goal of
100% of road transport to use electricity and green energy.
• Singapore: Target to phase out passenger ICE vehicles by 2040.

Other Asia

APS

• Pakistan: Targets for new vehicle sales: 30% of passenger light-duty vehicle sales tobe electric by 2030; 90% of truck sales to be electric vehicles by 2040; 90% of urban
bus sales to be electric vehicles by 2040; and 50% of electric two/three-wheeler sales
by 2030.

AfricaSTEPS• 28 countries have adopted the LDV Euro 3 or superior standard for second-handvehicle imports, as well an upper age limit of eight years for imports.

APS• Ghana: 4%, 16% and 32% of cars and buses sold to be EVs in 2025, 2030 and 2050
respectively.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Notes: STEPS = Stated Policies Scenario; APS = Announced Pledges Scenario. MoU = memorandum of understanding;
GHG = greenhouse gases; km = kilometre; ICE = internal combustion engine; EVs = electric vehicles; FCEVs = fuel cellelectric vehicle; CNG = compressed natural gas; LDV = light-duty vehicles. Light-duty vehicles include passenger cars
and light commercial vehicles (gross weight <3.5 tonnes). Heavy-duty vehicles include both medium freight trucks(gross weight 3.5 to 15 tonnes) and heavy freight trucks (gross weight >15 tonnes).

B
Annex B | Design of the scenarios

317

Table B.11 ⊳Initiatives

Industry and intergovernmental-led initiatives and manufacturing
targets by scenario
Type of pledge

PledgeProcurement

Achievement in:
STEPS

APS

10% of low-carbon steel by 2030.

Partially
met

Fully
met

Bring zero-carbon primary steel production
technologies to market by 2030.

Not metFully
met

Procurement

Near zero emissions steel to be preferred for every Partiallymember of the coalition (including European Union
met
and United States).

Fully
met

Emissions
reduction

Achieve net zero carbon emissions from operations Not met
by 2050.

Partiallymet

Emissions
reduction

Net zero emissions international shipping around
2050.

Not
met

Partiallymet

IATA Net Zero
Initiative

Emissions
reduction

Net zero emissions from international aviation by
2050.

Not
met

Partiallymet

ICAO initiative

Emissions
reduction

Offset CO2 emissions above 2019 levels.

Partially
met

Fully
met

100% of new MHDVs to be zero emissions by 2040.

Not
met

Fully
met

COP26 Declaration Technology
deployment

All sales of new light-duty vehicles to be zero
emissions globally by 2040, and by no later than
2035 in leading markets.

Not
met

Fully
met

Car manufacturers Sales targets
corporate targets

EV share to reach 38-53% globally (IEA estimates). Low-range Mid-range
met
met

Steel
First Mover
Coalition

Net Zero Initiative Technology
deployment
Glasgow
BreakthroughCementConcrete Action
for Climate
Shipping
2023 revised IMO
GHG Strategy
Aviation

Zero emissions
vehiclesGlobal MoU on
Technology
Zero Emissions
deployment
Medium-duty andHeavy-Duty
Vehicles

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Note: IMO = International Maritime Organization; IATA = International Air Transport Association; ICAO = International
Civil Aviation Organization; MoU = memorandum of understanding; EV = electric vehicle; MHDVs = medium-duty andheavy-duty vehicles. The APS fully meets the 2018 Initial IMO GHG Strategy.

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Annex C
Definitions
This annex provides general information on terminology used throughout this report
including: units and general conversion factors; definitions of fuels, processes and sectors;
regional and country groupings; and abbreviations and acronyms.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Units
Area

km2
Mha

square kilometre
million hectares

Batteries

Wh/kg

watt hours per kilogramme

Coal

Mtce

million tonnes of coal equivalent (equals 0.7 Mtoe)

Distancekm

kilometre

Emissions

ppm
t CO2
Gt CO2-eq
kg CO2-eq
g CO2/km
g CO2/kWhkg CO2/kWhparts per million (by volume)
tonnes of carbon dioxide
gigatonnes of carbon-dioxide equivalent (using 100-year
global warming potentials for different greenhouse gases)
kilogrammes of carbon-dioxide equivalent
grammes of carbon dioxide per kilometre
grammes of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hourkilogrammes of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour

Energy

EJ
PJ
TJ
GJ
MJ
Boe
Toe
Ktoe
Mtoe
bcme
MBtu
kWh
MWh
GWh
TWh
Gcal

exajoule (1 joule x 1018)
petajoule (1 joule x 1015)
terajoule (1 joule x 1012)
gigajoule (1 joule x 109)
megajoule (1 joule x 106)barrel of oil equivalent
tonne of oil equivalent
thousand tonnes of oil equivalentmillion tonnes of oil equivalentbillion cubic metres of natural gas equivalentmillion British thermal units
kilowatt-hour
megawatt-hour
gigawatt-hour
terawatt-hourgigacalorie

Gas

bcm
tcm

billion cubic metres
trillion cubic metres

Mass

kg
t
kt
Mt
Gt

kilogrammetonne (1 tonne = 1 000 kg)
kilotonne (1 tonne x 103)
million tonnes (1 tonne x 106)
gigatonne (1 tonne x 109)

Annex C | Definitions

319

Monetary

USD million
USD billion
USD trillion
USD/t CO2

1 US dollar x 106
1 US dollar x 109
1 US dollar x 1012
US dollars per tonne of carbon dioxide

Oilbarrelkb/dmb/dmboe/done barrel of crude oil
thousand barrels per day
million barrels per day
million barrels of oil equivalent per day

Power

W
kW
MW
GW
TW

watt (1 joule per second)kilowatt (1 watt x 103)
megawatt (1 watt x 106)
gigawatt (1 watt x 109)
terawatt (1 watt x 1012)

General conversion factors for energy

Convert from:

Multiplier to convert to:
EJ

Gcal

Mtoe

MBtu

bcme

GWh

EJ

1

2.388 x 10

23.88

9.478 x 10

27.78

2.778 x 105

Gcal

4.1868 x 10-9

1

10-7

3.968

1.163 x 10-7

1.163 x 10-3

Mtoe

4.1868 x 101013.968 x 10

1.163

11 630MBtu

1.0551 x 10

0.252

2.52 x 10

12.932 x 10

bcme

0.036

8.60 x 106

0.86

3.41 x 107

1GWh

3.6 x 10860

8.6 x 103 412

1 x 10

8

-2
-9

-6

7

8

7

-8

-5

-8

2.931 x 10-4
9 999

-4

1

Note: There is no generally accepted definition of barrel of oil equivalent (boe); typically the conversion factors
used vary from 7.15 to 7.40 boe per tonne of oil equivalent. Natural gas is attributed a low heating value of
1 MJ per 44.1 kg. Conversions to and from billion cubic metres of natural gas equivalent (bcme) are given as
representative multipliers but may differ from the average values obtained by converting natural gas volumes
between IEA balances due to the use of country-specific energy densities. Lower heating values (LHV) are usedthroughout.

Currency conversions
Exchange rates(2022 annual average)

1 US dollar (USD)
equals:British Pound

0.81

Chinese Yuan Renminbi

6.74

Euro

0.95

Indian Rupee

78.60

Japanese Yen

131.50

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Source: OECD Data (database): Exchange rates (indicator), https://data.oecd.org/conversion/exchangerates.htm, accessed October 2023.

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Definitions
Advanced bioenergy: Sustainable fuels produced from wastes, residues and non-food crop
feedstocks (excluding traditional uses of biomass), which are capable of delivering significant
life cycle greenhouse gas emissions savings compared with fossil fuel alternatives and ofminimising adverse sustainability impacts. Advanced bioenergy feedstocks either do notdirectly compete with food and feed crops for agricultural land or are only developed on landpreviously used to produced food crop feedstocks for biofuels.
Agriculture: Includes all energy used on farms, in forestry and for fishing.
Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) emissions: Includes greenhouse gas
emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use.
Ammonia (NH3): Is a compound of nitrogen and hydrogen. It can be used as a feedstock inthe chemical sector, as a fuel in direct combustion processes in fuel cells, and as a hydrogen
carrier. To be considered a low-emissions fuel, ammonia must be produced from hydrogenin which the electricity used to produce the hydrogen is generated from low-emissions
generation sources. Produced in such a way, ammonia is considered a low-emissionshydrogen-based liquid fuel.
Aviation: This transport mode includes both domestic and international flights and their useof aviation fuels. Domestic aviation covers flights that depart and land in the same country;
flights for military purposes are included. International aviation includes flights that land ina country other than the departure location.
Back-up generation capacity: Households and businesses connected to a main power grid
may also have a source of back-up power generation capacity that, in the event of disruption,
can provide electricity. Back-up generators are typically fuelled with diesel or gasoline.
Capacity can be as little as a few kilowatts. Such capacity is distinct from mini-grid and offgrid systems that are not connected to a main power grid.
Battery storage: Energy storage technology that uses reversible chemical reactions to absorb
and release electricity on demand.
Biodiesel: Diesel-equivalent fuel made from the transesterification (a chemical process thatconverts triglycerides in oils) of vegetable oils and animal fats.
Bioenergy: Energy content in solid, liquid and gaseous products derived from biomass
feedstocks and biogas. It includes solid bioenergy, liquid biofuels and biogases. Excludes
hydrogen produced from bioenergy, including via electricity from a biomass-fired plant, as
well as synthetic fuels made with CO2 feedstock from a biomass source.
Biogas: A mixture of methane, CO2 and small quantities of other gases produced byanaerobic digestion of organic matter in an oxygen-free environment.

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Biogases: Include both biogas and biomethane.
Biogasoline: Includes all liquid biofuels (advanced and conventional) used to replacegasoline.
Annex C | Definitions

321

C

Biojet kerosene: Kerosene substitute produced from biomass. It includes conversion routes
such as hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) and biomass gasification with FischerTropsch. It excludes synthetic kerosene produced from biogenic carbon dioxide.
Biomethane: Biomethane is a near-pure source of methane produced either by “upgrading”
biogas (a process that removes any carbon dioxide and other contaminants present in the
biogas) or through the gasification of solid biomass followed by methanation. It is also known
as renewable natural gas.
Buildings: The buildings sector includes energy used in residential and services buildings.
Services buildings include commercial and institutional buildings and other non-specified
buildings. Building energy use includes space heating and cooling, water heating, lighting,appliances and cooking equipment.
Bunkers: Includes both international marine bunker fuels and international aviation bunker
fuels.
Capacity credit: Proportion of the capacity that can be reliably expected to generate
electricity during times of peak demand in the grid to which it is connected.
Carbon capture, utilisation and storage (CCUS): The process of capturing carbon dioxide
emissions from fuel combustion, industrial processes or directly from the atmosphere.
Captured CO2 emissions can be stored in underground geological formations, onshore or
offshore, or used as an input or feedstock in manufacturing.
Carbon dioxide (CO2): A gas consisting of one part carbon and two parts oxygen. It is an
important greenhouse (heat-trapping) gas.
Chemical feedstock: Energy vectors used as raw materials to produce chemical products.
Examples are crude oil-based ethane or naphtha to produce ethylene in steam crackers.
Clean cooking systems: Cooking solutions that release less harmful pollutants, are more
efficient and environmentally sustainable than traditional cooking options that make use ofsolid biomass (such as a three-stone fire), coal or kerosene. This refers to improved cook
stoves, biogas/biodigester systems, electric stoves, liquefied petroleum gas, natural gas or
ethanol stoves.

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Clean energy: In power, clean energy includes: renewable energy sources, nuclear power,
fossil fuels fitted with CCUS, hydrogen and ammonia; battery storage; and electricity grids.
In efficiency, clean energy includes energy efficiency in buildings, industry and transport,
excluding aviation bunkers and domestic navigation. In end-use applications, clean energy
includes: direct use of renewables; electric vehicles; electrification in buildings, industry andinternational marine transport; CCUS in industry and direct air capture. In fuel supply, clean
energy includes low-emissions fuels, direct air capture, and measures to reduce theemissions intensity of fossil fuel production.

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Coal: Includes both primary coal, i.e. lignite, coking and steam coal, and derived fuels, e.g.
patent fuel, brown-coal briquettes, coke-oven coke, gas coke, gas works gas, coke-oven gas,
blast furnace gas and oxygen steel furnace gas. Peat is also included.
Coalbed methane (CBM): Category of unconventional natural gas that refers to methanefound in coal seams.
Coal-to-gas (CTG): Process in which coal is first turned into syngas (a mixture of hydrogenand carbon monoxide) and then into synthetic methane.
Coal-to-liquids (CTL): Transformation of coal into liquid hydrocarbons. One route involves
coal gasification into syngas (a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide), which isprocessed using Fischer-Tropsch or methanol-to-gasoline synthesis. Another route, called
direct-coal liquefaction, involves reacting coal directly with hydrogen.
Coking coal: Type of coal that can be used for steel making (as a chemical reductant and asource of heat), where it produces coke capable of supporting a blast furnace charge. Coalof this quality is commonly known as metallurgical coal.
Concentrating solar power (CSP): Thermal power generation technology that collects andconcentrates sunlight to produce high temperature heat to generate electricity.
Conventional liquid biofuels: Fuels produced from food crop feedstocks. Commonly referred
to as first generation biofuels and include sugar cane ethanol, starch-based ethanol, fatty
acid methyl ester (FAME), straight vegetable oil (SVO) and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)
produced from palm, rapeseed or soybean oil.
Critical minerals: A wide range of minerals and metals that are essential in clean energy
technologies and other modern technologies and have supply chains that are vulnerable todisruption. Although the exact definition and criteria differ among countries, critical minerals
for clean energy technologies typically include chromium, cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium,manganese, molybdenum, nickel, platinum group metals, zinc, rare earth elements and othercommodities, as listed in the Annex of the IEA special report on the Role of Critical Minerals
in Clean Energy Transitions available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-criticalminerals-in-clean-energy-transitions.
Decomposition analysis: Statistical approach that decomposes an aggregate indicator toquantify the relative contribution of a set of pre-defined factors leading to a change in theaggregate indicator. The World Energy Outlook uses an additive index decomposition of thetype Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Demand-side integration (DSI): Consists of two types of measures: actions that influenceload shape such as energy efficiency and electrification; and actions that manage load suchas demand-side response measures.

C
Annex C | Definitions

323

Demand-side response (DSR): Describes actions which can influence the load profile such as
shifting the load curve in time without affecting total electricity demand, or load shedding
such as interrupting demand for a short duration or adjusting the intensity of demand for acertain amount of time.
Direct air capture (DAC): A type of CCUS that captures CO2 directly from the atmosphereusing liquid solvents or solid sorbents. It is generally coupled with permanent storage of theCO2 in deep geological formations or its use in the production of fuels, chemicals, building
materials or other products. When coupled with permanent geological CO2 storage, DAC is acarbon removal technology, and it is known as direct air capture and storage (DACS).
Dispatchable generation: Refers to technologies whose power output can be readily
controlled, i.e. increased to maximum rated capacity or decreased to zero in order to match
supply with demand.
Electric arc furnace: Furnace that heats material by means of an electric arc. It is used for
scrap-based steel production but also for ferroalloys, aluminium, phosphorus or calcium
carbide.
Electric vehicles (EVs): Electric vehicles comprise of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plugin hybrid vehicles.
Electricity demand: Defined as total gross electricity generation less own use generation,plus net trade (imports less exports), less transmission and distribution losses.
Electricity generation: Defined as the total amount of electricity generated by power only or
combined heat and power plants including generation required for own use. This is also
referred to as gross generation.
Electrolysis: Process of converting electric energy to chemical energy. Most relevant for theenergy sector is water electrolysis, which splits water molecules into hydrogen and oxygen
molecules. The resulting hydrogen is called electrolytic hydrogen.
End-use sectors: Include industry, transport, buildings and other, i.e., agriculture and othernon-energy use.
Energy-intensive industries: Includes production and manufacturing in the branches of ironand steel, chemicals, non-metallic minerals (including cement), non-ferrous metals (includingaluminium), and paper, pulp and printing.

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Energy-related and industrial process CO2 emissions: Carbon dioxide emissions from fuelcombustion, industrial processes, and fugitive and flaring CO2 from fossil fuel extraction.
Unless otherwise stated, CO2 emissions in the World Energy Outlook refer to energy-related
and industrial process CO2 emissions.
Energy sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: Energy-related and industrial process CO2
emissions plus fugitive and vented methane (CH4) and nitrous dioxide (N2O) emissions fromthe energy and industry sectors.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Energy services: See useful energy.
Ethanol: Refers to bioethanol only. Ethanol is produced from fermenting any biomass highin carbohydrates. Currently ethanol is made from starches and sugars, but secondgeneration technologies will allow it to be made from cellulose and hemicellulose, the fibrousmaterial that makes up the bulk of most plant matter.
Fischer-Tropsch synthesis: Catalytic process to produce synthetic fuels, e.g. diesel, kerosene
or naphtha, typically from mixtures of carbon monoxide and hydrogen (syngas). The inputs
to Fischer-Tropsch synthesis can be from biomass, coal, natural gas, or hydrogen and CO2.
Fossil fuels: Include coal, natural gas and oil.
Gaseous fuels: Include natural gas, biogases, synthetic methane and hydrogen.
Gases: See gaseous fuels.
Gas-to-liquids (GTL): A process that reacts methane with oxygen or steam to produce syngas(a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide) followed by Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The
process is similar to that used in coal-to-liquids.
Geothermal: Geothermal energy is heat from the sub-surface of the earth. Water and/or
steam carry the geothermal energy to the surface. Depending on its characteristics,
geothermal energy can be used for heating and cooling purposes or be harnessed togenerate clean electricity if the temperature is adequate.
Heat (end-use): Can be obtained from the combustion of fossil or renewable fuels, direct
geothermal or solar heat systems, exothermic chemical processes and electricity (throughresistance heating or heat pumps which can extract it from ambient air and liquids). This
category refers to the wide range of end-uses, including space and water heating, andcooking in buildings, desalination and process applications in industry. It does not include
cooling applications.
Heat (supply): Obtained from the combustion of fuels, nuclear reactors, large-scaleheat pumps, geothermal or solar resources. It may be used for heating or cooling, orconverted into mechanical energy for transport or electricity generation. Commercial heatsold is reported under total final consumption with the fuel inputs allocated under power
generation.
Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs): Include both medium freight trucks (gross weight 3.5 to
15 tonnes) and heavy freight trucks (gross weight >15 tonnes).
Heavy industries: Iron and steel, chemicals and cement.

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Hydrogen: Hydrogen is used in the energy system as an energy carrier, as an industrial raw
material, or is combined with other inputs to produce hydrogen-based fuels. Unlessotherwise stated, hydrogen in this report refers to low-emissions hydrogen.
Hydrogen-based fuels: See low-emissions hydrogen-based fuels.
Annex C | Definitions

325

CHydropower: Refers to the electricity produced in hydropower projects, with the assumptionof 100% efficiency. It excludes output from pumped storage and marine (tide and wave)
plants.
Improved cook stoves: Intermediate and advanced improved biomass cook stoves (ISOtier > 1). It excludes basic improved stoves (ISO tier 0-1).
Industry: The sector includes fuel used within the manufacturing and construction industries.
Key industry branches include iron and steel, chemical and petrochemical, cement,
aluminium, and pulp and paper. Use by industries for the transformation of energy intoanother form or for the production of fuels is excluded and reported separately under otherenergy sector. There is an exception for fuel transformation in blast furnaces and coke ovens,which are reported within iron and steel. Consumption of fuels for the transport of goods isreported as part of the transport sector, while consumption by off-road vehicles is reported
under industry.
International aviation bunkers: Include the deliveries of aviation fuels to aircraft forinternational aviation. Fuel used by airlines for their road vehicles are excluded. The
domestic/international split is determined on the basis of departure and landing locations
and not by the nationality of the airline. For many countries this incorrectly excludes fuels
used by domestically owned carriers for their international departures.
International marine bunkers: Include the quantities delivered to ships of all flags that are
engaged in international navigation. The international navigation may take place at sea, on
inland lakes and waterways, and in coastal waters. Consumption by ships engaged indomestic navigation is excluded. The domestic/international split is determined on the basisof port of departure and port of arrival, and not by the flag or nationality of the ship.
Consumption by fishing vessels and by military forces is excluded and instead included in theresidential, services and agriculture category.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Investment: Investment is the capital expenditure in energy supply, infrastructure, end-use
and efficiency. Fuel supply investment includes the production, transformation and transportof oil, gas, coal and low-emissions fuels. Power sector investment includes new construction
and refurbishment of generation, electricity grids (transmission, distribution and public
electric vehicle chargers), and battery storage. Energy efficiency investment includes
efficiency improvements in buildings, industry and transport. Other end-use investment
includes the purchase of equipment for the direct use of renewables, electric vehicles,
electrification in buildings, industry and international marine transport, equipment for theuse of low-emissions fuels, and CCUS in industry and direct air capture. Data and projections
reflect spending over the lifetime of projects and are presented in real terms in year-2022
US dollars converted at market exchange rates unless otherwise stated. Total investment
reported for a year reflects the amount spent in that year.
Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE): LCOE combines into a single metric all the cost elements
directly associated with a given power technology, including construction, financing, fuel,maintenance and costs associated with a carbon price. It does not include network
integration or other indirect costs.
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Light-duty vehicles (LDVs): Include passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (grossvehicle weight < 3.5 tonnes).
Light industries: Include non-energy-intensive industries: food and tobacco; machinery;mining and quarrying; transportation equipment; textiles; wood harvesting and processing;and construction.
Lignite: A type of coal that is used in the power sector mostly in regions near lignite mines
due to its low energy content and typically high moisture levels, which generally make longdistance transport uneconomic. Data on lignite in the World Energy Outlook include peat.
Liquid biofuels: Liquid fuels derived from biomass or waste feedstock, e.g. ethanol, biodiesel
and biojet fuels. They can be classified as conventional and advanced biofuels according to
the combination of feedstock and technologies used to produce them and their respective
maturity. Unless otherwise stated, biofuels are expressed in energy-equivalent volumes ofgasoline, diesel and kerosene.
Liquid fuels: Include oil, liquid biofuels (expressed in energy-equivalent volumes of gasoline
and diesel), synthetic oil and ammonia.
Low-emissions electricity: Includes output from renewable energy technologies, nuclear
power, fossil fuels fitted with CCUS, hydrogen and ammonia.
Low-emissions fuels: Include modern bioenergy, low-emissions hydrogen and low-emissionshydrogen-based fuels.
Low-emissions gases: Include biogas, biomethane, low-emissions hydrogen and lowemissions synthetic methane.
Low-emissions hydrogen: Hydrogen that is produced from water using electricity generated
by renewables or nuclear, from fossil fuels with minimal associated methane emissions andprocessed in facilities equipped to avoid CO2 emissions, e.g. via CCUS with a high capturerate, or derived from bioenergy. In this report, total demand for low-emissions hydrogen islarger than total final consumption of hydrogen because it additionally includes hydrogen
inputs to make low-emissions hydrogen-based fuels, biofuels production, power generation,
oil refining, and hydrogen produced and consumed onsite in industry.
Low-emissions hydrogen-based fuels: Include ammonia, methanol and other synthetichydrocarbons (gases and liquids) made from low-emissions hydrogen. Any carbon inputs,
e.g. from CO2, are not from fossil fuels or process emissions.
Low-emissions hydrogen-based liquid fuels: A subset of low-emissions hydrogen-based
fuels that includes only ammonia, methanol and synthetic liquid hydrocarbons, such assynthetic kerosene.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Lower heating value: Heat liberated by the complete combustion of a unit of fuel when thewater produced is assumed to remain as a vapour and the heat is not recovered.
Marine energy: Represents the mechanical energy derived from tidal movement, wave
motion or ocean currents and exploited for electricity generation.
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327

CMiddle distillates: Include jet fuel, diesel and heating oil.
Mini-grids: Small electric grid systems, not connected to main electricity networks, linking a
number of households and/or other consumers.
Modern energy access: Includes household access to a minimum level of electricity (initiallyequivalent to 250 kilowatt-hours (kWh) annual demand for a rural household and 500 kWh
for an urban household); household access to less harmful and more sustainable cooking andheating fuels, and improved/advanced stoves; access that enables productive economic
activity; and access for public services.
Modern gaseous bioenergy: See biogases.
Modern liquid bioenergy: Includes biogasoline, biodiesel, biojet kerosene and other liquidbiofuels.
Modern renewables: Include all uses of renewable energy with the exception of the
traditional use of solid biomass.
Modern solid bioenergy: Includes all solid bioenergy products (see solid bioenergy
definition) except the traditional use of biomass. It also includes the use of solid bioenergy
in intermediate and advanced improved biomass cook stoves (ISO tier > 1), requiring fuel tobe cut in small pieces or often using processed biomass such as pellets.
Natural gas: Includes gas occurring in deposits, whether liquefied or gaseous, consisting
mainly of methane. It includes both non-associated gas originating from fields producing
hydrocarbons only in gaseous form, and associated gas produced in association with crude
oil production as well as methane recovered from coal mines (colliery gas). Natural gas
liquids, manufactured gas (produced from municipal or industrial waste, or sewage) andquantities vented or flared are not included. Gas data in cubic metres are expressed on agross calorific value basis and are measured at 15 °C and at 760 mm Hg (Standard
Conditions). Gas data expressed in exajoules are on a net calorific basis. The difference
between the net and the gross calorific value is the latent heat of vaporisation of the water
vapour produced during combustion of the fuel (for gas the net calorific value is 10% lower
than the gross calorific value).

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Natural gas liquids (NGLs): Liquid or liquefied hydrocarbons produced in the manufacture,
purification and stabilisation of natural gas. NGLs are portions of natural gas recovered asliquids in separators, field facilities or gas processing plants. NGLs include, but are not limited
to, ethane (when it is removed from the natural gas stream), propane, butane, pentane,
natural gasoline and condensates.
Near zero emissions capable material production capacity: Capacity that will achieve
substantial emissions reductions from the start – but fall short of near zero emissions
material production initially (see following definition) – with plans to continue reducing
emissions over time such that they could later achieve near zero emissions production
without additional capital investment.
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International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Near zero emissions material production: For steel and cement, production that achieves
the near zero GHG emissions intensity thresholds as defined in Achieving Net Zero Heavy
Industry Sectors in G7 Members (IEA, 2022). The thresholds depend on the scrap share ofmetallic input for steel and the clinker-to-cement ratio for cement. For other energyintensive commodities such as aluminium, fertilisers and plastics, production that achieves
reductions in emissions intensity equivalent to the considerations for near zero emissions
steel and cement.
Near zero emissions material production capacity: Capacity that when operational willachieve near zero emissions material production from the start.
Network gases: Include natural gas, biomethane, synthetic methane and hydrogen blended
in a gas network.
Non-energy-intensive industries: See other industry.
Non-energy use: The use of fuels as feedstocks for chemical products that are not used inenergy applications. Examples of resulting products are lubricants, paraffin waxes, asphalt,
bitumen, coal tars and timber preservative oils.
Non-renewable waste: Non-biogenic waste, such as plastics in municipal or industrial waste.
Nuclear power: Refers to the electricity produced by a nuclear reactor, assuming an average
conversion efficiency of 33%.
Off-grid systems: Mini-grids and stand-alone systems for individual households or groups ofconsumers not connected to a main grid.
Offshore wind: Refers to electricity produced by wind turbines that are installed in open
water, usually in the ocean.
Oil: Includes both conventional and unconventional oil production. Petroleum products
include refinery gas, ethane, liquid petroleum gas, aviation gasoline, motor gasoline, jet
fuels, kerosene, gas/diesel oil, heavy fuel oil, naphtha, white spirits, lubricants, bitumen,paraffin, waxes and petroleum coke.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Other energy sector: Covers the use of energy by transformation industries and the energy
losses in converting primary energy into a form that can be used in the final consuming
sectors. It includes losses in low-emissions hydrogen and hydrogen-based fuels production,
bioenergy processing, gas works, petroleum refineries, coal and gas transformation andliquefaction. It also includes energy own use in coal mines, in oil and gas extraction and inelectricity and heat production. Transfers and statistical differences are also included in thiscategory. Fuel transformation in blast furnaces and coke ovens are not accounted for in theother energy sector category.
Other industry: A category of industry branches that includes construction, food processing,machinery, mining, textiles, transport equipment, wood processing and remaining industry.
It is sometimes referred to as non-energy-intensive industry.
Annex C | Definitions

329

CPassenger car: A road motor vehicle, other than a moped or a motorcycle, intended totransport passengers. It includes vans designed and used primarily to transport passengers.
Excluded are light commercial vehicles, motor coaches, urban buses and mini-buses/minicoaches.
Peat: Peat is a combustible soft, porous or compressed, fossil sedimentary deposit of plantorigin with high water content (up to 90% in the raw state), easily cut, of light to dark brown
colour. Milled peat is included in this category. Peat used for non-energy purposes is notincluded here.
Plastic collection rate: Proportion of plastics that is collected for recycling relative to thequantity of recyclable waste available.
Plastic waste: Refers to all post-consumer plastic waste with a lifespan of more than one
year.
Power generation: Refers to electricity generation and heat production from all sources ofelectricity, including electricity-only power plants, heat plants, and combined heat andpower plants. Both main activity producer plants and small plants that produce fuel for theirown use (auto-producers) are included.
Process emissions: CO2 emissions produced from industrial processes which chemically or
physically transform materials. A notable example is cement production, in which CO2 isemitted when calcium carbonate is transformed into lime, which in turn is used to produce
clinker.
Process heat: The use of thermal energy to produce, treat or alter manufactured goods.
Productive uses: Energy used towards an economic purpose: agriculture, industry, services
and non-energy use. Some energy demand from the transport sector, e.g. freight, could beconsidered as productive, but is treated separately.
Rare earth elements (REEs): A group of seventeen chemical elements in the periodic table,
specifically the fifteen lanthanides plus scandium and yttrium. REEs are key components insome clean energy technologies, including wind turbines, electric vehicle motors andelectrolysers.
Renewables: Include bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, solar photovoltaics (PV),concentrating solar power (CSP), wind and marine (tide and wave) energy for electricity andheat generation.
Residential: Energy used by households including space heating and cooling, water heating,lighting, appliances, electronic devices and cooking.

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Road transport: Includes all road vehicle types (passenger cars, two/three-wheelers, lightcommercial vehicles, buses and medium and heavy freight trucks).
Self-sufficiency: Corresponds to indigenous production divided by total primary energy
demand.
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Services: A component of the buildings sector. It represents energy used in commercial
facilities, e.g. offices, shops, hotels, restaurants, and in institutional buildings, e.g. schools,
hospitals, public offices. Energy use in services includes space heating and cooling, water
heating, lighting, appliances, cooking and desalination.
Shale gas: Natural gas contained within a commonly occurring rock classified as shale. Shaleformations are characterised by low permeability, with more limited ability of gas to flow
through the rock than is the case within a conventional reservoir. Shale gas is generally
produced using hydraulic fracturing.
Shipping/navigation: This transport mode includes both domestic and internationalnavigation and their use of marine fuels. Domestic navigation covers the transport of goods
or people on inland waterways and for national sea voyages (starts and ends in the same
country without any intermediate foreign port). International navigation includes quantities
of fuels delivered to merchant ships (including passenger ships) of any nationality for
consumption during international voyages transporting goods or passengers.
Single-use plastics (or disposable plastics): Plastic items used only one time before disposal.
Solar: Includes both solar photovoltaics and concentrating solar power.
Solar home systems (SHS): Small-scale photovoltaic and battery stand-alone systems, i.e.
with capacity higher than 10 watt peak (Wp) supplying electricity for single households orsmall businesses. They are most often used off-grid, but also where grid supply is not reliable.
Access to electricity in the IEA definition considers solar home systems from 25 Wp in rural
areas and 50 Wp in urban areas. It excludes smaller solar lighting systems, e.g. solar lanternsof less than 11 Wp.
Solar photovoltaics (PV): Electricity produced from solar photovoltaic cells including utilityscale and small-scale installations.
Solid bioenergy: Includes charcoal, fuelwood, dung, agricultural residues, wood waste andother solid biogenic wastes.
Solid fuels: Include coal, modern solid bioenergy, traditional use of biomass and industrial
and municipal wastes.
Stand-alone systems: Small-scale autonomous electricity supply for households or small
businesses. They are generally used off-grid, but also where grid supply is not reliable. Standalone systems include solar home systems, small wind or hydro generators, diesel or gasoline
generators. The difference compared with mini-grids is in scale and that stand-alone systems
do not have a distribution network serving multiple costumers.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Steam coal: A type of coal that is mainly used for heat production or steam-raising in power
plants and, to a lesser extent, in industry. Typically, steam coal is not of sufficient quality forsteel making. Coal of this quality is also commonly known as thermal coal.
Synthetic methane: Methane from sources other than natural gas, including coal-to-gas andlow-emissions synthetic methane.
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Synthetic oil: Synthetic oil produced through Fischer-Tropsch conversion or methanol
synthesis. It includes oil products from CTL and GTL, and non-ammonia low-emissions liquidhydrogen-based fuels.
Tight oil: Oil produced from shale or other very low permeability formations, generally using
hydraulic fracturing. This is also sometimes referred to as light tight oil. Tight oil includes tightcrude oil and condensate production except for the United States, which includes tight crude
oil only (US tight condensate volumes are included in natural gas liquids).
Total energy supply (TES): Represents domestic demand only and is broken down into
electricity and heat generation, other energy sector and total final consumption.
Total final consumption (TFC): Is the sum of consumption by the various end-use sectors.
TFC is broken down into energy demand in the following sectors: industry (including
manufacturing, mining, chemicals production, blast furnaces and coke ovens); transport;
buildings (including residential and services); and other (including agriculture and other nonenergy use). It excludes international marine and aviation bunkers, except at world level
where it is included in the transport sector.
Total final energy consumption (TFEC): Is a variable defined primarily for tracking progress
towards target 7.2 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). It
incorporates total final consumption by end-use sectors, but excludes non-energy use. It
excludes international marine and aviation bunkers, except at world level. Typically this isused in the context of calculating the renewable energy share in total final energy
consumption (indicator SDG 7.2.1), where TFEC is the denominator.
Traditional use of biomass: Refers to the use of solid biomass with basic technologies, suchas a three-stone fire or basic improved cook stoves (ISO tier 0-1), often with no or poorly
operating chimneys. Forms of biomass used include wood, wood waste, charcoal agriculturalresidues and other bio-sourced fuels such as animal dung.
Transport: Fuels and electricity used in the transport of goods or people within the national
territory irrespective of the economic sector within which the activity occurs. This includes:
fuel and electricity delivered to vehicles using public roads or for use in rail vehicles; fueldelivered to vessels for domestic navigation; fuel delivered to aircraft for domestic aviation;and energy consumed in the delivery of fuels through pipelines. Fuel delivered tointernational marine and aviation bunkers is presented only at the world level and is
excluded from the transport sector at a domestic level.
Trucks: Includes all size categories of commercial vehicles: light trucks (gross vehicle weight< 3.5 tonnes); medium freight trucks (gross vehicle weight 3.5-15 tonnes); and heavy freighttrucks (gross vehicle weight > 15 tonnes).

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Unabated fossil fuel use: Consumption of fossil fuels in facilities without CCUS.
Useful energy: Refers to the energy that is available to end-users to satisfy their needs. Thisis also referred to as energy services demand. As result of transformation losses at the pointof use, the amount of useful energy is lower than the corresponding final energy demand for
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most technologies. Equipment using electricity often has higher conversion efficiency thanequipment using other fuels, meaning that for a unit of energy consumed, electricity canprovide more energy services.
Value-adjusted levelised cost of electricity (VALCOE): Incorporates information on bothcosts and the value provided to the system. Based on the LCOE, estimates of energy, capacityand flexibility value are incorporated to provide a more complete metric of competitivenessfor power generation technologies.
Variable renewable energy (VRE): Refers to technologies whose maximum output at any
time depends on the availability of fluctuating renewable energy resources. VRE includes abroad array of technologies such as wind power, solar PV, run-of-river hydro, concentrating
solar power (where no thermal storage is included) and marine (tidal and wave).
Zero carbon-ready buildings: A zero carbon-ready building is highly energy efficient andeither uses renewable energy directly or an energy supply that can be fully decarbonised,such as electricity or district heat.
Zero emissions vehicles (ZEVs): Vehicles that are capable of operating without tailpipe CO2
emissions (battery electric and fuel cell vehicles).

Regional and country groupings
Advanced economies: OECD regional grouping and Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus1,2, Malta andRomania.
Africa: North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa regional groupings.
Asia Pacific: Southeast Asia regional grouping and Australia, Bangladesh, Democratic
People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), India, Japan, Korea, Mongolia, Nepal, New Zealand,
Pakistan, The People’s Republic of China (China), Sri Lanka, Chinese Taipei, and other Asia
Pacific countries and territories.3
Caspian: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan andUzbekistan.
Central and South America: Argentina, Plurinational State of Bolivia (Bolivia), Bolivarian
Republic of Venezuela (Venezuela), Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Curaçao,
Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica,
Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay and otherCentral and South American countries and territories.4
China: Includes (The People's Republic of) China and Hong Kong, China.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Developing Asia: Asia Pacific regional grouping excluding Australia, Japan, Korea and
New Zealand.
Emerging market and developing economies: All other countries not included in theadvanced economies regional grouping.
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Figure C.1 ⊳Main country groupings

Note: This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

Eurasia: Caspian regional grouping and the Russian Federation (Russia).
Europe: European Union regional grouping and Albania, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Gibraltar, Iceland, Israel5, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Norway, Republic ofMoldova, Serbia, Switzerland, Türkiye, Ukraine and United Kingdom.
European Union: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus1,2, Czech Republic, Denmark,Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia,
Spain and Sweden.
IEA (International Energy Agency): OECD regional grouping excluding Chile, Colombia, Costa
Rica, Iceland, Israel, Latvia and Slovenia.
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC): Central and South America regional grouping and
Mexico.
Middle East: Bahrain, Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab Republic (Syria), United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
Non-OECD: All other countries not included in the OECD regional grouping.
Non-OPEC: All other countries not included in the OPEC regional grouping.
North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco and Tunisia.

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

North America: Canada, Mexico and United States.

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OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development): Australia, Austria,
Belgium, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland,
France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia,
Lithuania, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal,
Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Türkiye, United Kingdom and UnitedStates.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries): Algeria, Angola, Bolivarian
Republic of Venezuela (Venezuela), Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran
(Iran), Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Republic of the Congo (Congo), Saudi Arabia and United ArabEmirates.
OPEC+: OPEC grouping plus Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Kazakhstan, Malaysia,
Mexico, Oman, Russian Federation (Russia), South Sudan and Sudan.
Southeast Asia: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic(Lao PDR), Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. These
countries are all members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
Sub-Saharan Africa: Angola, Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republicof the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Kingdom ofEswatini, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Republic of theCongo (Congo), Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, United Republic of
Tanzania (Tanzania), Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe and other African countries andterritories.6

Country notes
Note by Republic of Türkiye: The information in this document with reference to “Cyprus” relates to thesouthern part of the island. There is no single authority representing both Turkish and Greek Cypriot people
on the island. Türkiye recognises the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). Until a lasting and equitable
solution is found within the context of the United Nations, Türkiye shall preserve its position concerning the“Cyprus issue”.
1

2
Note by all the European Union Member States of the OECD and the European Union: The Republic of Cyprus
is recognised by all members of the United Nations with the exception of Türkiye. The information in thisdocument relates to the area under the effective control of the Government of the Republic of Cyprus.

Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for: Afghanistan, Bhutan, Cook Islands, Fiji,
French Polynesia, Kiribati, Macau (China), Maldives, New Caledonia, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa,
Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, Tonga and Vanuatu.

3

4
Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba,
Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands,
Dominica, Falkland Islands (Malvinas), Grenada, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Pierre andMiquelon, Saint Vincent and Grenadines, Saint Maarten (Dutch part), Turks and Caicos Islands.
5
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities.
The use of such data by the OECD and/or the IEA is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East
Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.

Individual data are not available and are estimated in aggregate for: Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde,Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Djibouti, Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Liberia, Malawi,
Mali, Mauritania, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles, Sierra Leone and Somalia.

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IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Abbreviations and acronyms
AC
AFOLU
APEC
APS
ASEAN
BECCS
BEV
CAAGR
CAFE
CBM
CCGT
CCUS
CDR
CEM
CH4
CHP
CNG
CO
CO2
CO2-eq
COP
CSP
CTG
CTL
DAC
DACS
DC
DER
DFI
DRI
DSI
DSO
DSR
EHOB
EMDE
EOR
EPA
ESG
ETS
EU
EU ETSEV
336

alternating current
agriculture, forestry and other land use
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
Announced Pledges Scenario
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
bioenergy equipped with CCUS
battery electric vehicles
compound average annual growth rate
corporate average fuel economy standards (United States)
coalbed methane
combined-cycle gas turbine
carbon capture, utilisation and storage
carbon dioxide removal
Clean Energy Ministerial
Methanecombined heat and power; the term co-generation is sometimes usedcompressed natural gas
carbon monoxidecarbon dioxidecarbon-dioxide equivalent
Conference of Parties (UNFCCC)
concentrating solar powercoal-to-gas
coal-to-liquids
direct air capture
direct air capture and storage
direct current
distributed energy resources
development finance institutions
direct reduced irondemand-side integration
distribution system operator
demand-side response
extra-heavy oil and bitumen
emerging market and developing economies
enhanced oil recovery
Environmental Protection Agency (United States)
environmental, social and governanceemissions trading system
European Union
European Union Emissions Trading Systemelectric vehicle
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IEA. CC BY 4.0.

FAO
FCEV
FDI
FID
FiT
FOB
GEC
GDP
GHG
GTL
H2
HDV
HEFA
HFO
HVDC
IAEA
ICE
ICT
IEA
IGCC
IIASA
IMF
IMO
IOC
IPCC
IPT
LCOE
LCV
LDV
LED
LNG
LPG
LULUCF
MEPS
MER
NDC
NEA
NGLs
NGV
NOC
NPV
NOX
N2O
NZE

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
fuel cell electric vehicle
foreign direct investment
final investment decision
feed-in tariff
free on board
Global Energy and Climate (model)
gross domestic productgreenhouse gases
gas-to-liquidshydrogenheavy-duty vehiclehydrogenated esters and fatty acids
heavy fuel oilhigh voltage direct current
International Atomic Energy Agency
internal combustion engine
information and communication technologies
International Energy Agency
integrated gasification combined-cycle
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
International Monetary FundInternational Maritime Organizationinternational oil company
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
independent power transmission
levelised cost of electricity
light commercial vehicle
light-duty vehicle
light-emitting diodeliquefied natural gas
liquefied petroleum gas
land use, land-use change and forestry
minimum energy performance standards
market exchange rate
Nationally Determined Contribution
Nuclear Energy Agency (an agency within the OECD)natural gas liquids
natural gas vehicle
national oil company
net present value
nitrogen oxides
nitrous oxide
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario

Annex C | Definitions

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OECD
OPEC
PHEV
PLDV
PM
PM2.5
PPA
PPP
PV
R&D
RD&D
SAF
SDG
SHS
SME
SO2
STEPS
T&D
TES
TFC
TFEC
TPA
TPED
TSO
UAE
UN
UNDP
UNEP
UNFCCCUSUSGSVALCOE
VRE
WACC
WEO
WHO
ZEV
ZCRB

338

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
passenger light-duty vehicle
particulate matterfine particulate matter
power purchase agreement
purchasing power parity
photovoltaics
research and development
research, development and demonstration
sustainable aviation fuelSustainable Development Goals (United Nations)
solar home systems
small and medium enterprises
sulphur dioxide
Stated Policies Scenariotransmission and distribution
total energy supply
total final consumption
total final energy consumption
tonne per annum
total primary energy demandtransmission system operator
United Arab Emirates
United Nations
United Nations Development Programme
United Nations Environment Programme
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
United States
United States Geological Survey
value-adjusted levelised cost of electricity
variable renewable energy
weighted average cost of capital
World Energy Outlook
World Health Organization
zero emissions vehicle
zero carbon-ready building

International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

Annex D
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Chapter 5: Regional insights
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BNEF. (2023b). Wind Manufacturers (database) accessed July 2023.
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IEA. (2023c). Cost of Capital Observatory.
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IEA. (2023d). Oman’s huge renewable hydrogen potential can bring multiple benefits in its
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IEA. (2023e). The State of Clean Technology Manufacturing.
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IEA. (2023f). Critical Minerals Market Review 2023.
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IEA. (2022a). Africa Energy Outlook 2022.
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IEA. (2022b). Coal in Net Zero Transitions.
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UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). (2021). Used Vehicles and theEnvironment: Progress and Updates 2021. https://www.unep.org/resources/report/usedvehicles-and-environment-progress-and-updates-2021
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Annex B: Design of the scenarios
BGR (Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe/Federal Institute for Geosciences
and Natural Resources). (2021). Energiestudie - Daten und Entwicklungen der deutschen
und globalen Energieversorgung [Energy Study - Data and Developments in German and
Global Energy Supply].
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BP. (2022). Statistical Review of World Energy.
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CEDIGAZ. (2022). Country indicators (database) accessed July 2023.
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for Transportation Applications: 2018 Update.
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Energy Outlook 2023: Oil and Gas Supply Module.
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Annex E
Inputs to the Global Energy and Climate Model
General noteThis annex includes references of databases and publications used to provide input data to
the IEA Global Energy and Climate (GEC) Model. The IEA’s own databases of energy andeconomic statistics provide much of the data used in the GEC Model. These include IEA
statistics on energy supply, transformation, demand at detailed levels, carbon dioxide
emissions from fuel combustion and energy efficiency indicators that form the bedrock of
the World Energy Outlook modelling and analyses.
Supplemental data from a wide range of external sources are also used to complement IEA
data and provide additional detail. This list of databases and publications is comprehensive,
but not exhaustive.

IEA databases and publications
IEA (International Energy Agency). (2023). Coal Information.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/coal-information-service
IEA. (2023). Emissions Factors 2023.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/emissions-factors-2023
IEA. (2023). Energy Efficiency Indicators.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/energy-efficiency-indicators
IEA. (2023). Energy Prices.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/energy-prices
IEA. (2023). Energy Technology RD&D Budgets. https://www.iea.org/data-andstatistics/data-product/energy-technology-rd-and-d-budget-database-2
IEA. (2023). Global Energy Review 2023: CO2 Emissions in 2022.
https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022
IEA. (2023). Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy. https://www.iea.org/data-andstatistics/data-product/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy
IEA. (2023). Methane Tracker Database 2023. https://www.iea.org/data-andstatistics/data-product/methane-tracker-database-2023
IEA. (2023). Monthly Electricity Statistics.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/monthly-electricity-statistics

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

IEA. (2023). Monthly Gas Data Service.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/monthly-gas-data-service-2
IEA. (2023). Monthly Oil Data Service Complete. https://www.iea.org/data-andstatistics/data-product/monthly-oil-data-service-mods-complete
Annex E | Inputs to the Global Energy and Climate Model

347

IEA. (2023). Natural Gas Information.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/natural-gas-information
IEA. (2023). Real-Time Electricity Tracker.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/real-time-electricity-tracker
IEA. (2023). Renewable Energy Market Update - June 2023.
https://www.iea.org/reports/renewable-energy-market-update-june-2023
IEA. (2023). SDG 7: Data and Projections.
https://www.iea.org/reports/sdg7-data-and-projections
IEA. (2023). Weather for Energy Tracker.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/weather-for-energy-tracker
IEA. (2023). World Energy Balances.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/world-energy-balances
IEA. (2023). World Energy Investment 2023.
https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-investment-2023
IEA. (2022). Global Fuel Economy Initiative 2021 Data Explorer. https://www.iea.org/dataand-statistics/data-tools/global-fuel-economy-initiative-2021-data-explorer
IEA. (2022). Renewables 2022. https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2022
IEA. (n.d.). CCUS Projects Database.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/ccus-projects-database
IEA. (n.d.). ETP Clean Energy Technology Guide. https://www.iea.org/data-andstatistics/data-tools/etp-clean-energy-technology-guide
IEA. (n.d.). Fossil Fuel Subsidies Database.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/fossil-fuel-subsidies-database
IEA. (n.d). Hydrogen Projects Database.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/hydrogen-projects-database
IEA. (n.d.). Policies Database. https://www.iea.org/policies/

External databases and publications
Socio-economic variables
IMF (International Monetary Fund). (2023). World Economic Outlook: April 2023 Update.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2023/April

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

Oxford Economics. (2023). Oxford Economics Global Economic Model: July 2023 Update.
https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/global-economic-model

348

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UN DESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs). (2022). World
Population Prospects 2022.
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UN DESA (2018). World Urbanisation Prospects 2018. https://population.un.org/wup/World Bank. (20223). World Development Indicators.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL

Power
ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity). (2023).
Transparency Platform (database). https://transparency.entsoe.eu/
Global Transmission. (2020). Global Electricity Transmission Report and Database. 2020-29.
https://www.globaltransmission.info/report_electricity-transmission-report-and-database2020-29.php
IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency). (2023). Power Reactor Information System(database). https://pris.iaea.org/pris/
NRG Expert (2019). Electricity Transmission and Distribution (database).
https://www.nrgexpert.com/energy-market-research/electricity-transmission-anddistribution-database/
S&P Global (2023). World Electric Power Plants (database). S&P Market Intelligence
Platform. https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/

Industry
European Union Joint Research Centre. EDGAR – Emissions Database for Global
Atmospheric Research. https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/dataset_ghg70/
Fastmarkets RISI (n.d.). Pulp. Paper and Packaging.
https://www.risiinfo.com/industries/pulp-paper-packaging/
Global Cement. (2023). Global Cement Directory 2023. https://www.globalcement.com/
Global Cement and Concrete Association. (2023). GNR 2.0 – GCCA in Numbers.
https://gccassociation.org/sustainability-innovation/gnr-gcca-in-numbers/
Global Energy Monitor. (2023). Global Steel Plant Tracker.
https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-steel-plant-tracker/
IHS Markit (n.d.). Chemical. https://ihsmarkit.com/industry/chemical.html

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

International Aluminium Institute. (2023). World Aluminium Statistics.
http://www.world-aluminium.org/statistics/

E

International Aluminium Institute. (2023). The Global Aluminium Cycle.
https://alucycle.international-aluminium.org/
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349

IFA (International Fertilizer Association) (n.d.). IFASTAT (database).
https://www.ifastat.org/
METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan). (2023). METI Statistics Report.
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MMSA (Methanol Market Services Asia) (n.d.). (database).
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NBS (National Bureau of Statistics of China). (2023). Statistical Communiqué of The People's
Republic of China on the 2022 National Economic and Social Development.
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OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). (2023). (database). The
Global Plastics Outlook database.
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S&P Global. (2023). Platts Global Polyolefins Outlook.
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UN DESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs) (n.d.). UN Comtrade(database). https://comtrade.un.org/data/
UN FAO (United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations) (n.d.).
FAOSTAT Data (database). http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data
US EIA (United States Energy Information Administration). (2021). Manufacturing Energy
Consumption Survey. https://www.eia.gov/consumption/manufacturing/data/2018/
USGS (United States Geological Survey). (2023). Commodity Statistics and Information.
National Minerals Information Center. https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic
World Bureau of Metal Statistics (n.d). (database).
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World Steel Association. (2023). World Steel in Figures 2023.
https://worldsteel.org/steel-topics/statistics/world-steel-in-figures-2023/

Transport
AIM (Aviation Integrated Model). (2020). An Open-Source Model Developed by the
University College London Energy Institute. www.ucl.ac.uk/energy-models/models/aim
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (n.d.). Lithium ion Battery Gigafactory Assessment Report.
https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/market-assessments/gigafactory-assessment/

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

EV Volumes. (2023). Electric Vehicle World Sales (database). https://www.ev-volumes.com/
ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization). (2023). Air Transport Monthly Monitor.
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350International Energy Agency | World Energy Outlook 2023

IMO (International Maritime Organization). (2021). Fourth IMO GHG Study 2020.
https://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/Pages/Fourth-IMO-Greenhouse-GasStudy-2020.aspx
Institute for Transportation and Development Policy. (2022). Rapid Transit Database.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uMuNG9rTGO52Vuuq6skyqmkH9U5yv1iSJDJYjH
64MJM/
International Association of Public Transport. (2021). Metro World Statistics Database.
International Association of Public Transport. (2020). Light Rail Transit World Statistics
Database.
International Union of Railways. (2022). High-Speed Lines in the World 2021.
https://uic.org/passenger/highspeed/article/high-speed-data-and-atlas
International Union of Railways. (2022). Railisa UIC Statistics. https://uic-stats.uic.org/
Jato Dynamics (n.d.). https://www.jato.com/solutions/jato-analysis-reporting/
LMC Automotive (n.d.). LMC Automotive Forecasting. https://lmc-auto.com/
McD (n.d.). Motor Cycles Data. https://www.motorcyclesdata.com/
OAG (Official Aviation Guide) (n.d.). OAG (database). https://www.oag.com/
UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development). (2022). Review ofMaritime Transport 2022. https://unctad.org/rmt2022

Buildings and energy access
AHRI (Air Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute). (2023). Statistics.
https://www.ahrinet.org/analytics/statistics
CLASP (Collaborative Labeling and Appliance Standards Program). (2023). Mepsy: The
Appliance & Equipment Climate Impact Calculator. https://www.clasp.ngo/tools/mepsy/
EHPA (European Heat Pump Association). (2023). Market Data.
https://www.ehpa.org/market-data/
GOGLA (Global Association for the Off-grid Solar Energy Industry). (2023). Global Off-Grid
Solar Market Report. https://www.gogla.org/global-off-grid-solar-market-report
IPCC WG1 (International Panel on Climate Change Working Group 1). (2023). IPCC WGIInteractive Atlas. https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

JRAIA (Japan Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Association). (2022). Estimates of World Air
Conditioner Demand by Country.
https://www.jraia.or.jp/english/statistics/file/World_AC_Demand.pdf

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351

E

MEMR (Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia). (2022). Handbook of Energy
and Economic Statistics of Indonesia. https://www.esdm.go.id/assets/media/content/
content-handbook-of-energy-and-economic-statistics-of-indonesia-2021.pdf
National Bureau of Statistics China. (2023). China Statistical Yearbook 2022.
http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/Statisticaldata/yearbook/
National Statistical Office (India) (2019). Drinking Water, Sanitation, Hygiene and Housing
Conditions in India.
https://www.mospi.gov.in/sites/default/files/publication_reports/Report_584_final_0.pdf
OLADE (Latin American Energy Organisation). (2023). Electricity Access (database).
https://sielac.olade.org/default.aspx
US EIA (United States Energy Information Administration). (2023). 2020 RECS (Residential
Energy Consumption Survey). https://www.eia.gov/consumption/residential/data/2020/
US EIA. (2023). 2018 CBECS (Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey Data).
https://www.eia.gov/consumption/commercial/
USAID (United States Agency for International Development) (n.d.). Demographic and
Health Surveys (database). https://dhsprogram.com/Data/
WHO (World Health Organization). (2023). Household Air Pollution Data (database).
https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/air-pollution/household-air-pollution
World Bank. (2023). Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy. https://rise.esmap.org/

Energy supply and energy investment
Argus Media. (2023). (price database). https://direct.argusmedia.com/
BGR (Bundesanstalt fὕr Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe). (2021). (German Federal
Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources 2021). Energiestudie 2021. Daten und
Entwicklungen der Deutschen und Globalen Energieversorgung. [Energy Study 2021. Data
and Developments in German and Global Energy Supply].
https://www.bgr.bund.de/DE/Themen/Energie/Downloads/energiestudie_2021.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4
Bloomberg Terminal (n.d.).
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BNEF (Bloomberg New Energy Finance). (2023). Sustainable Finance Database.
https://about.bnef.com

IEA. CC BY 4.0.

BP. (2022). Statistical Review of World Energy 2022. https://www.bp.com/en/global/
corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
Cedigaz. (2023). Cedigaz (database). https://www.cedigaz.org/databases/
Clean Energy Pipeline. (2022). (database). https://cleanenergypipeline.com/
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CRU (n.d.). Coal (database). https://www.crugroup.com/
IJ Global. (2023). Transaction (database). https://ijglobal.com/data/search-transactions
Kayrros. (2023). (data analytics). https://www.kayrros.com/
McCloskey by OPIS. a Dow Jones Company. (2022). Coal (database).
https://www.opisnet.com/commodities/coal-metals-mining/
Oil & Gas Journal. (2022). Global Oil and Gas Reserves Increase in 2022.
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Refinitiv Eikon. (2023). Eikon (financial data platform).
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Rystad Energy. (2023). (database). https://www.rystadenergy.com
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International Energy Agency (IEA)
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Cover design: IEA
Photo credits: © ShutterstockWorld Energy Outlook 2023
The World Energy Outlook 2023 provides in-depth analysis andstrategic insights into every aspect of the global energy system.
Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and fragile energy
markets, this year’s report explores how structural shifts ineconomies and in energy use are shifting the way that the world
meets rising demand for energy.
This Outlook assesses the evolving nature of energy security
fifty years after the foundation of the IEA. It also examines whatneeds to happen at the COP28 climate conference in Dubai tokeep the door open for the 1.5 °C goal. And, as it does every year,
the Outlook examines the implications of today’s energy trends in
key areas including investment, trade flows, electrification andenergy access.
This flagship publication of the International Energy Agency isthe energy world’s most authoritative source of analysis andprojections. Published each year since 1998, its objective data
and dispassionate analysis provide critical insights into global
energy supply and demand in different scenarios and theimplications for energy security, climate change goals andeconomic development.