Climate change
vulnerability
assessmentof the Verde Island Passage, Philippines

For more information on the Verde Island Passage Vulnerability Assessment Project, contact:
Emily Pidgeon, PhD
Director, Marine Climate Change Program
Conservation International–Global Marine Division
epidgeon@conservation.org
Rowena Boquiren, PhD
Socioeconomics and Policy Unit (SEPU) Leader
Conservation International–Philippines
rboquiren@conservation.org
Conservation International
2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500
Arlington, VA 22202 USA
Web: www.conservation.org

This document should be cited as: R. Boquiren, G. Di Carlo,
and M.C. Quibilan (Eds). 2010. Climate Change Vulnerability
Assessment of the Verde Island Passage, Philippines.
Technical report. Conservation International, Arlington,
Virginia, USA.

Photo credits©Teri Aquino©CI/photo by Haraldo Castro©Tim Carruthers©Benjamin De Ridder, Marine Photobank©CI/photo by Giuseppe Di Carlo© Google Earth©Keith Ellenbogenii©CI/photo by Michelle Encomienda©CI/photo by Jürgen Freund©Leonard J McKenzie©CI/photo by Miledel C. Quibilan©rembss, Flickr©Badi Samaniego©CI/photo by Sterling Zumbrunn

Science Communication TeamTim Carruthers and Jane Hawkey
Integration & Application Network
University of Maryland Center for
Environmental Science
www.ian.umces.edu

Preface
The Verde Island Passage, in the sub-national area of
Luzon in the northern Philippines, is located within the
globally significant Coral Triangle, an area considered
the center of the world’s marine biodiversity. The VerdeIsland Passage is a conservation corridor that spans
five provinces: Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental
Mindoro, Marinduque and Romblon. The abundantfish and charismatic megafauna support over 7 million
people in those provinces, whose livelihoods include
fishing, aquaculture, and tourism.
It is projected that climate change will cause rising sea
levels, higher ocean temperatures, and more acidic
waters. As the ocean largely regulates the climate,changes in ocean temperatures and currents are
already altering the frequency, intensity, and distributionof storms, floods, heat waves, and the amount anddistribution of rainfall. The unique biodiversity of the
Verde Island Passage is at risk. In addition, the loss of
biodiversity directly impacts its local communities, as
their livelihoods are dependent primarily on tourism,
fisheries, and agriculture, all of which are dependent onthese threatened natural resources.
In September 2008, Conservation International,
in cooperation with several partners, conducted avulnerability assessment to gauge the likely impactsof climate change on marine ecosystems of the VerdeIsland Passage and the human communities that are

dependent upon them. The assessment evaluated thevulnerability of the Verde Island Passage to climatechange and determined the priority actions needed toensure that its ecosystems and coastal societies canadapt to future climate conditions.
This study brought together experts on the Verde Island
Passage marine environment, climate scientists, social
scientists, government officials, and local stakeholders,
all working under a common agenda: the need tomaintain and increase the resilience of biodiversity ofthis area.
This report contains the scientific studies that underpin
the immediate and substantial actions needed
to increase the adaptive capacity of Verde Island
Passage’s ecosystems and the people that depend on
them. Adapting to climate change is the only solution
to ensure ecosystems and human societies cansurvive and maintain their wellbeing when exposed toclimate change impacts. These studies will support
the development of “climate-smart” plans for the local
governments of the Verde Island Passage.
Conservation International and it partners arecommitted to continue to support their efforts towards
ensuring the biodiversity of the Verde Island Passage
is protected and can adapt to future conditions for the
benefit of the society and its future generations.
Romeo B. Trono						County Executive Director					Conservation International–Philippines				iii

Acknowledgements
This document is the result of a collective effort andwould not have been possible without the contributionsof many people and organizations. Conservation
International would like to acknowledge the work of thefaculty and researchers of the Marine Science Institute,
University of the Philippines–Diliman, and De La Salle
University: Niva Gonzales, Rina Rosales, Miledel C.
Quibilan, Sheila Vergara, Michelle Reyes, and Annabelle
Trinidad.
This work would not have been possible without thekind support and contribution of the Presidential
Task Force on Climate Change of the Governmentof the Philippines, the Provincial Government of
Batangas, the Provincial Governments of Occidental
and Oriental Mindoro, the Provincial Government ofMarinduque, the Provincial Government of Romblon,and all their Municipal Governments, the Department ofEnvironment and Natural Resources (DENR), and thePhilippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA).
We also express our gratitude to each of the
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Workshop
participants and their home institutions, and to thenumerous staff at Conservation International who
provided feedback and input in several stages of thisproject.

iv

Table of contents
Chapter 1: Vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems andfisheries to climate change in the Verde Island Passage ................................1
Executive summary........................................................................................................................2
Introduction.......................................................................................................................................6
Study area ......................................................................................................................................6
Hazards............................................................................................................................................8
Exposure.......................................................................................................................................... 13
Sea surface temperature in the Verde Island Passage ................................................... 13
Wave exposure........................................................................................................................... 13
Coastal erosion.......................................................................................................................... 16
Marine flooding........................................................................................................................... 20
Exacerbating features of the Verde Island Passage......................................................... 21
Sensitivity........................................................................................................................................ 22
Habitat and data description................................................................................................... 22
Method of assessing sensitivity............................................................................................. 24
Sea surface temperature impact............................................................................................ 26
Storm impact............................................................................................................................... 27
Sea level rise impact................................................................................................................. 27
Adaptive capacity......................................................................................................................... 30
Vulnerability.................................................................................................................................... 33
		 Consequence of this habitat sensitivity to diversity.......................................................... 33
		 Consequence of this habitat sensitivity to fisheries.......................................................... 35
		 Vulnerable areas vs. ecologically critical or sensitive areas........................................... 40
Recommendations........................................................................................................................41
		 Research and monitoring imperatives...................................................................................41
		 Scenarios for adaptation.......................................................................................................... 42
		 Recommendations and next steps........................................................................................ 42
		 Early response and immediate managment recommendations..................................... 44
References...................................................................................................................................... 45
Chapter 2: Human well-being and climate change in the
Verde Island Passage: vulnerability assessment for adaptation ................ 47
Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 48
Objective...................................................................................................................................... 48
Methodology.................................................................................................................................. 49
Results and discussion.............................................................................................................. 52
Profile of the Verde Island Passage...................................................................................... 52
Vulnerability assessment of human well-being.................................................................. 64
Conclusions and recommendations..................................................................................... 75
Fisheries ...................................................................................................................................... 75
Tourism sector............................................................................................................................. 76
Foreshore development ........................................................................................................... 76
Health and food safety ............................................................................................................. 76
References...................................................................................................................................... 78
Chapter 3: Recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts......................... 79
Chapter 4: Outreach and communication strategy ................................................................ 83
Executive summary..................................................................................................................... 84
Introduction.................................................................................................................................... 85
About the workshops ............................................................................................................... 85
Results.............................................................................................................................................. 86
Preliminary workshops ............................................................................................................. 86
Vulnerability assessment workshop ..................................................................................... 87
Recommendations....................................................................................................................... 92
References...................................................................................................................................... 93v

vi

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change

Chapter 1:
Vulnerability assessment ofmarine ecosystems and fisheries
to climate change in the VerdeIsland Passage
Laura T. David 1, Lead Integrator
Contributing Authors: Porfirio Alino 1, Vera Christine Horigue 1, Wilfredo Licuanan 2, Samuel Mamauag 1, Evangeline
Magdaong 1, Eileen Penaflor 1, Riovie Ramos 1, Maricar Samson 1, Fernando Siringan 1, Leah Soria 1, Victor Ticzon 1,
Cesar Villanoy 1
1 Marine Science Institute, College of Science, University of the Philippines–Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines
2 De La Salle University, 2407 Taft Avenue, Manila, Philippines

1

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Executive summary
This report synthesizes the five studies of the“Vulnerability Assessment of Marine Biodiversity
and Related Human Well-Being in the Verde Island
Passage” project funded by the Conservation
International. Implemented by researchers from theMarine Science Institute of the University of thePhilippines and De La Salle University, the research
activities focused on the characterization of thegeological, physical and biological environment andfisheries of the Verde Island Passage (VIP). The
objective was to determine the vulnerability of the VIPmarine biodiversity to impacts of climate change, which
included changes in ocean temperature, sea level rise,and increased frequency of more devastating typhoons.

Rationale
The Verde Island Passage, located in the SuluSulawesi Seascape is the area of interest since it has
been identified as a Marine Biodiversity Conservation
Corridor as identified under Ong et al. 2002 and EO
578. Based on the recent coral reef assessments
by CI–Philippines, 319 coral species belonging to
74 coral genera have been observed in the passage(CI 2009). Carpenter and Springer (2005) notedthat more than half of the documented fish species
worldwide overlap in this area of the Philippines.
Furthermore, iconic species such as dolphins, whales,
turtles, and whalesharks occur in the passage (Dolar
2006). Moreover, of added significant value to theproject is the fact that the VIP is the area where theState of the Coast has been piloted in the province of
Batangas hence there exists an opportunity to scale up
these efforts and at the same integrate within an ICM
approach.

Description of approach
The vulnerability analyses of the VIP to the potential
impacts of climate change required considering its
degree of physical and geological exposure, thesensitivity of its coastal habitats, and their inherent
adaptive capacity to cope with such an impact (IPCC
2007). Because of the particular characteristics of the
VIP, the availability of data and related literature, andtime constraints, the climate change impacts that wereconsidered for biodiversity were limited to sea surface
temperature rise, storminess, and sea level rise.
The research activities on exposure included studying:• time series of heating stress;• wave and storm surge simulations;• historical coastal erosion;2• likelihood of inundation; and,• additional naturally occurring exacerbating features.
Sensitivity studies focused on qualifying impacts
of increase in sea surface temperature (SST),
storminess, and sea level rise to corals, seagrasses,
and mangroves. While the ecological adaptive capacity
was investigated using a change detection over a timeseries of remotely sensed images as a proxy for theability of the system to withstand an impact.
Together these exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive
capacity give insight to the Verde Island Passage
vulnerability to climate change. In particular, the study
highlighted the effect of climate change to coral andreef fish diversity and consequently also to fisheries.

Pertinent results
A 0.15-0.30°C/decade sea surface temperature
increase in the VIP region was seen over the last
2 decades. In general in the VIP, coastal areas
experienced less increase relative to areas offshore.
However, embayed areas were observed to be more
susceptible to prolonged extreme heating events most
likely due to longer residence time of warm water withinbays as compared to open coasts.
Analysis showed that the probable percentage lossof live hard coral cover due to increase in ocean
temperature ranged from 3% to 22% across the
Verde Island Passage. The sites deemed to be highly
vulnerable are those with high cover of Acropora
sp. and pocilloporids. Sites with minimal losses aremostly dominated by the coral Porites sp. As such, themunicipalities of Mabini and Tingloy have the highest
vulnerability with percentage loss of 11% to 22% and
14% to 21% respectively. The municipality of Lubang
had an estimated loss 8% to 15%.
It should be noted however, that longer-term time series
SST from HadISST1 (1900-2008 for the VIP) showsa lesser degree of increase of only a 0.06 oC/decadein the longer-term. In addition, the 10-yr smoothedand de-trended annual HadISST1 also compares
particularly well with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) index for the same period with an observed
lag of 5-10 years. This observation emphasizes thetelecommunication between the Pacific and the VIP
region and suggests that use of the last 2-3 decades ofdata to simulate future scenarios should be interpretedwith caution. Specifically, all satellite-derived images
go back in time only as far as the last PDO-shift in1977 from negative to positive. All synoptic datachapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : executive summary

available therefore belong to the PDO positive regime.
In 2008, the early stage of a cool phase of the PDO
was observed. Aside from the increase in temperature
averages, the degree and frequency of anomalies might
be what is crucial as the succession of effects would
prevent its recovery rate and steady increases may
cause more adaptive capacity.
An average of two to three storms passed near the
Verde Island Passage corridor annually. There were nostrong typhoons (Category 4-5) in the period before
1975 but in recent years roughly more than half belong
to the strong typhoon categories. Fortunately, the wave
fetch within Verde Passage is not large because of thenarrow configuration of the passage thus waves do
not develop into large waves during typical monsoon
conditions or even during storm conditions. The only
areas prone to surges in Verde Island Passage arethose that are exposed to wide areas of water suchas the coastlines facing the Sibuyan Sea (eastern
Batangas, Quezon, and eastern Mindoro coasts) andthose facing the South China Sea including Lubang
Island.
Storms bring about high sedimentation from theuplands and potential erosion at the coast. Overalllarge sediment supply to the coast results in net land
gain is observed on most of the delta plains during thelast 50 to 60 years. In Batangas, land progradation indelta plains coincide with periods of high annual rainfall,
while erosion occurred during periods of decreased
precipitation over the last 40 years. Long steep slopes
have practically no forest cover, which also promotes
higher sediment yield. In Batangas, where sugarcane
is a major agricultural product, erosion is not arrested
by any structure that would break the flow of surface
runoff resulting in high rates of erosion. Areas such as
Nasugbu, Balayan, Batangas, Boac, and Calapan thatexperienced rapid accretion in recent years, are also
the most vulnerable to coastal inundation. However,coastal erosion in Batangas City and Calapan isinstead attributed to improperly placed and designed
engineering structures and removal of mangrove
forests; and liquefaction due to tsunami associated with
7.1M 1994 earthquake, respectively.
Based on the monitoring of reefs east of the
VIP, estimated coral cover losses during tropicalstorm is about 8% to 21%. These projections are
considered conservative. Diversity is already low inthe municipalities surveyed, thereby making themeven more vulnerable to storm events based on theestimates. The municipality of Nasugbu is deemed to be
the most vulnerable of all the sites regardless of low orsevere impact. Losses in coral genera will change from28 to 21.8% during severe impact.

The four sites in the VIP with known seagrass
distribution are analyzed to have low sensitivity to
sediment perturbation caused by an increase in storm
intensity and frequency. The projection may be different
if analysis will include eutrophication caused by influx offreshwater from increased storm/rainfall frequency.
The VIP corridor is within a very tectonically active area
where there are numerous active faults and volcanoes
and where earthquakes are very frequent. Liquefaction,
subsidence and tsunami can cause extensive and rapid
coastal inundation, thus, global sea-level rise would
be amplified. On the other hand, land emergenceor uplift can counter the effect of sea-level rise. The
predominance of net land gain, during a period when
sea level is supposed to be rising, can be due to uplift.
However, there are no tide gauge records in the VIP
corridor that can be examined to test this idea.
Reef area loss due to sea level rise for the VIP ranges
from 0.38% to 7%. Note that these only apply to thedeepest portion of the reef slope. Assuming that thecoral distribution and diversity are even for the entire
reef area, diversity loss obtained using the species area
curve estimated 0.60% to 0.80% loss. Specifically,
Batangas City and Nasugbu are highly vulnerable with
0.60% to 0.80% diversity loss while the rest of themunicipalities surveyed have relatively lower estimatesof 0.60% to 0.70% diversity loss.
If sensitivity assessment will be based on the areal
extent of potential mangrove areas almost all areas
included in this report will be inundated with 1m risein sea level except for the municipalities of San Juan,
Batangas and Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro.
Overall, Calatagan, followed by Puerto Galera-Naujan
appears stable in that changes to live coral andmacrophyte cover are minimal through the years. The
live coral cover of Batangas East and West Marinduquealso appears stable. The most significant live coral
cover loss can be seen for the islands of Lubang andMaricaban.
Chlorophyll data within and around the VIP shows theseasonality of the signal with higher signal during the
NE monsoon. Further investigation of the NE signal
shows the higher chlorophyll concentration in thewestern side of the VIP. Sites within the VIP showed
a positive chl anomaly during a strong La Niña (19992001) with a 1 year lag between the eastern andwestern part. This could have implications in the near
future because PDO negative (in which we are in now)
have been associated with more La Niñas.

3

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

In an increasing sea surface temperature, most of
the fisheries target species will be affected throughdisruption in timing of reproduction, decreased
reproductive output, shorter larval duration, lower recruit
survivorship, and recruitment failure leading to changes
in fisheries productivity. Impact on critical habitats suchas coral reefs, seagrasses, and mangroves will affectthe aforementioned attributes of the associated faunathat include high value target species (e.g., siganids,groupers, snappers). For sea level rise, some habitats
such as mangroves will be inundated that will reduce
available areas for recruitment of associated fauna thathave fisheries value. In coral reefs, species on shallower
parts (e.g., reef flats) will be affected compared to thoseon reef slopes. Increase in frequency and intensity ofstorms can greatly affect recruitment of target species
through reduction of suitable sites for recruitment andreduction in abundance and species diversity due tohabitat loss and decreased habitat complexity.
A total of 16 species of reef fishes listed in Pratchettet al. (2008) was observed in the VIP. Percentage
loss of reef fish species ranged from 9% to 14%.
The municipality of Nasugbu was deemed to have thehighest vulnerability as it could lose 16% of the 44
observed fish species, followed by Looc, Calatagan,
and San Juan with estimated losses of 14%, 12%, and
10% respectively.
The vulnerability assessment for the fisheries utilizes
the information gathered from the literature to identify
the fisheries resources (target species, fishery stocks)
that will be most affected (i.e., vulnerable vis-à-vis theprospective climate impacts) by extreme changes in the
climate. Emphasis was placed upon knowledge of thecritical life stages (e.g., larvae, juveniles, reproductive
stages) of the species as well as some information on
their catch rates and habitat conditions. It has been
acknowledged that changes in the climate (e.g., risingsea surface temperature, increase in storm frequency,
storm surges) would possibly introduce greatest impact
upon larval, juvenile and reproductive stages of target
species affecting distributional patterns (e.g., Munday
et al. 2008). Target species may also be influenced bychanges in the climate indirectly through habitat loss
and fragmentation (e.g., coral loss through bleaching
events, inundation of mangroves areas) affecting their
recruitment, survivorship and abundance (Pratchett etal. 2008). The associated habitats of the target species
were determined as this will allow further examination of
the conditions of these habitats harboring the critical life
stages. The presence of habitat types (e.g., seagrassbeds, mangroves) that enhances the growth andsurvivorship and what drives the population dynamics ofthe species potentially will serve as a gauge or index as
what would be vulnerable to climate change.

4

The fisheries that are most vulnerable are those
involving fishes that need different habitats throughout
their life stages. For example, Mabini and Lubang/Looc
have grouper and snapper fisheries. These fishes makeuse of estuaries, mangroves, seagrasses, corals, andthe pelagic realm during the different stages in their life.

Key recommendations
The fisheries ecosystem approach to management
will need to be put in place as natural links to thepresent conservation efforts with the tourism industry.
Environmental concerns will not only marginalize fishers
and their fishing grounds, exacerbate the impending
climate change impacts but will jeopardize the future of
our next generations.
• Adaptation mechanisms would require that thepresent CRM programs need to be more tightly
integrated through establishing knowledge based
communities. The various CRM working groups
would also need to engage with each otherthrough inter-LGU arrangement joint fisheries law
enforcement teams (FLET) and bay management
councils or VIP level alliances can be formed.
Coastal law enforcement will need to integrate
ecosystem management and zoning policy
considerations, e.g., foreshore management,
infrastructure and human settlements regulations• Based on available literature on the interconnectivityof mangrove, seagrass and coral reef, protecting
adjacent ecosystems may increase the resilience of
these ecosystems to the impacts, including that ofclimate change. Therefore, in sites that have shown
significant adaptive capacity and at the same timein sites where the fisheries were found vulnerable,measures must be taken to reduce of prevailingthreats such as illegal and destructive fishing,
emerging pollution and habitat degradation fromurban and industrial development. Where criticallife stages are important it would be important toconsider a combination of establishment of an
expanded protection zone to serve both as a canary
for improving adaptive management and (see also
adaptive management below), and have regulated
activities through close and open seasons andgear regulations in conjunction with safety nets andincentives for affected sectors.
• In addition, given that sea level will accelerate in the
coming years and that storms are likely to increasein frequency and possibly strengthen, the natural
buffers to sea level rise and impact of large waves,such as coral reefs and mangroves, should beprotected and rehabilitated.
• Deforestation and extensive agriculture in thewatersheds, long steep slopes, and presence ofnumerous faults, high seismicity, and volcanoes allchapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : executive summary

promote a high sediment yield. These have likely
played a large role in the degradation of coral
reef ecosystems and in the decline of coastal andoffshore fisheries. In the formulation of mitigation
and adaptation measures, this link between themarine ecosystem and the watershed should beconsidered.
• In some areas, this high sediment yield has resulted
to rapid accretion. Instead of utilizing the newly
prograded lands in the VIP for various development,these can instead be used by the LGUs andnational agencies as buffers to erosion and actionof large waves. Greenbelts, of the appropriate
assemblage, can be established in these newly
prograded lands. Wide mangrove plains will also
reduce the level of nutrients and sediments entering
the sea and create nursery habitats for fisheries.
• Erosion along the coast is mostly caused about
by human modifications such as inappropriate
ports, quarrying, and removal of mangroves andseagrasses. Steps must be taken to position
ports in such as way as not to impede longshore
sediment drift and advocate constructing open
ports that allow water to flow in between pilings.
Stop stone mining and educate people from various
strata of the functions of mangroves and coral reefs
towards the protection of the beach.

approach to the climate change adaptation measures.
These would require the formulation of a research,development and extension program that incorporates
an appropriate monitoring design for the impending
potential impacts. It would require the participation of
the local higher education institutions to engage withthe relevant stakeholders to build knowledge-based
communities in the VIP where lessons learned andknowledge gained are regularly fed back, e.g., throughthe State of the Coasts report.

Targeted researchComplementary to the monitoring would be a targeted
research, development and extension agenda thatlook at how the adaptive capacity of the coastal areas,
their ecosystems and fisheries can cope with climatechange. Long-term monitoring together with simulation
models that investigates how to enhance the adaptive
capacity (e.g., abundance, coverage and range ofvulnerable ecosystems and habitats) will need to define
the priority research questions and their interdisciplinary
concerns. A network of sensors (e.g., thermal sensors
and weather stations) linked or akin to the ICE CREAM
program will be useful for the VIP in mainstreaming
climate change adaptation measures.

Areas that suggest that adaptation measures areimperative shall be those which are crucial to marine
biodiversity, the life histories of important fisheries
species, and human well-being.
For biodiversity and fisheries, these areas would behigh candidate sites for expanding sizes or establishingareas as marine protected areas (MPA). This will not
only help in the conservation of existing flora andfauna but also in the replenishment of fisheries stocks
by regulating fishing effort. In addition to MPA, it isimperative that adoption of access and use rights
fisheries management interventions are put in placesuch as closed and open seasons, gear regulations andeffort controls, combined with access incentives linked
to stewardship (e.g., reserves related to enhancement
and sea ranching of highly valued invertebrates
species).
For human well-being, these areas would also be sites
which deliver multiple services to the community not
only as source of livelihood but also provide protection
from climate-related hazards.

Adaptive management
Considering the constraints on the available informationand the unfolding changes occurring in the VIP, it isimperative to incorporate an adaptive management
5

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Introduction
The vulnerability analyses of the Verde Island Passage(VIP) requires considering the components andmeasures of potential impacts to and adaptive capacityof the critical marine habitats and fisheries (Allison et al.
2009, Worldfish Center 2009).

exposure

increase sea
surfacetemperature

The potential impact of climate change to an
ecosystem includes the degree that it is exposed andits ecological and social-economic state which has
an inherent sensitivity to a changing environment. The
adaptive capacity of an ecosystem on the other hand
would depend on their congenital capacity (including
associated symbionts like their zooxanthellae) andsurvival from historical exposures. The focus of study
presented here, given the time restrictions and budget
constraints, is on sensitivity and exposure.
Predictions of changes in temperature, precipitationand sea level as a result of climate change in thePhilippines are summarized by Hulme and Sheard(1999). These predictions were derived from climate
experiments from several global climate models
conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) and historical observed climate data.
Some general climate predictions for the Philippines
include a temperature increase of about 0.1-0.3°C/
decade, an enhanced seasonal precipitation variation(e.g., drier months become drier and wetter months
become wetter) and a slight sea level increase of about
30cm by 2045.
The goal of this study is to estimate, using the best
available information, oceanographic and climatechange effects and its potential impacts on criticalmarine habitats, threatened species and fisheries inthe VIP. Because of the particular characteristics of the
Passage, the availability of data and related literature,and time constraints, the climate change impacts thatwere considered for biodiversity were limited to sea
surface temperature rise, storminess, and sea level rise
(Figure 1).

sea levelriseincreasedstorm
frequency
and intensity

sensitivity

targetspecies

gear
quantity,
distribution,anddependanceon habitats

potential impact
andadaptive capacity

vulnerability to
climate change impacts

Figure 1. Diagram of each of the elements considered andhow they relate to one another in the assessment.

Study area
The Verde Island Passage is an important strait forwater exchange between the South China Sea and the
Sibuyan Sea and eventually the Pacific. It also forms
a natural boundary between basins. The shallowest
and narrowest point of the passage is in the vicinity of
the Verde Island (Figure 2). Net flow in Verde Island
Passage is to the west during the northeast monsoon
and to the east during the southwest monsoon (Figure
3).
The coasts along the Verde Island Passage corridor
are geomorphologically varied. Cliffed rocky shorelines
occur where steep mountain slopes adjoin the sea. In
some areas, these rocky coastlines are fringed withnarrow sandy or gravelly beach and coral reefs. Narrowand gently sloping sandy coastal plains develop fromsmall rivers draining the flanks of volcanoes. Large
rivers, on the other hand, form broad and relatively flatsandy to muddy delta plains with or without associatedmangroves.

6

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : introduction

The Verde Island Passage, located in the Sulu-Sulawesi
Seascape, has been identified as a Marine Biodiversity
Conservation Corridor as identified under Ong et al.
2002 and EO 578. Based on the recent coral reef
assessments by CI–Philippines, 319 coral species
belonging to 74 coral genera have been observedin the passage (CI 2009). Carpenter and Springer(2005) noted that more than half of the documented
fish species worldwide overlap in this area of thePhilippines. Furthermore, iconic species such as
dolphins, whales, turtles, and whalesharks occur in the
Passage (Dolar 2006).

0
LubangIs.

-2000

Verde Is.
Passage
Tingloy Is.

-4000

14.0

Verde Is.

13.5

13.0

119.6

119.8

120.0

120.2

120.4

120.6

Surrounding VIP are 5 provinces: Batangas, Mindoro
Occidental, Mindoro Oriental, Quezon, and Marinduque(Figure 4) with a total population of 7,800,175 (as of2007).

120.8 121.0 121.2 121.4

Figure 2. Bathymetry of the Verde Island Passage.
120ºE

122ºE

120ºE

122ºE

Figure 3. Schematic of seasonal circulation during thenortheast monsoon (left) and the southwest monsoon (right)
around Mindoro (Han et al. 2009).

3
5

6

4

18
7
16

8
9 12
10

1
2

11

17

19

20

15

13

14

34
35
33

32

21

31
30
29

22

28

23
24

27
26
25

N

0

14

28 km

Figure 4. The municipalities surrounding the VIP (clustered by Province) in clockwise order: Batangas Province (1-15; 34,35) Lubang(1), Looc(2), Lian(3), Calatagan(4), Balayan(5), Calaca(6), Lemery(7), Taal(8), San Luis(9), Bauan(10), Mabini(11),Tingloy (34), San Pascual(12), Batangas City(13), Verde Island (35), Lobo(14), San Juan(15); Quezon Province (16-20)
Sariaya(16), Lucena(17), Pagbilao(18), Padre Burgos (19), Agdangan(20); MarinduqueProvince (21-24) MogPog(21),
Boac(22), Gasan(23), Buenavista(24); Mindoro Oriental (25-31) Pinamalayan(25), Pola(26), Naujan(27), Calapan(28),
Baco(29), San Teodoro(30), Puerto Galera(31); Mindoro Occidental (32, 33) Abra de Ilog(32), Paluan(33).
7climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Hazards
Among the components of climate change that
may affect marine biodiversity include temperature,storminess, precipitation, sea-level rise, air-sea CO2
concentration, changes in ocean circulation patterns,
health of functionally linked neighboring ecosystems, aswell as, human responses to climate change (Gilman
et al. 2008). Knowledge of the extent or severities
of vulnerability of coastal areas to these threats areneeded in the formulation of mitigation and adaptation
measures.

14ºN

13ºN

12ºN
120ºE

121ºE

Increase in ocean temperature

Philippine-wide sea surface temperature (SST) has
experienced an average increase of about 0.025°C/
year. However, the increase has not been spatiallyhomogenous with areas in the northern tip of Luzon andeastern Visayas increasing the fastest while the lowest
increase is found in western Mindanao (Figure 5).
21ºN

0.035

18ºN

0.03

latitude

15ºN

0.025

12ºN

0.02

9ºN

0.015

6ºN

114ºE

117ºE

120ºE

123ºE

126ºE

123ºE

122ºE

1985-2005 Trends (˚C/decade)
0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Figure 6. SST increase (°C/year) in the Verde Island Passage
from 1985-2006.

Overall, SST anomalies exhibited inter-annual variability.
This was explored by comparing the Maximum SST
calculated for each year with the long-term averageannual maximum SST (also referred to as the BaseMax
as defined by NOAA–CRW) (Figure 7). The BaseMax
is calculated using the entire data set but without theidentified anomalous years 1987-88, 1992-93, 199899, 2001-02. Results show significantly warmer SST
occurred in the VIP during transition from a strong
El Niño to a strong La Niña (i.e., 1987 and 1998
determined from Niño 3.4 data from the ENSO region
in the middle of the Pacific). The annual variability isfurther highlighted using spatially-explicit difference
between the Maximum SST for the year and theBaseMax (Figure 8). Again, 1987 and 1998 are seen
as significantly warm years for the VIP, along with 1992,
2001, and 2005.

129ºE

longitude

Figure 5 SST increase (°C/year) from 1985-2005 (takenfrom ICE-CREAM Proj.1 mid-term report).

2.5
2.0
1.5

8

1.0

SST anomaly

For the Verde Island Passage, the study on sea
surface temperature utilized the 1985-2006 gapfilled, 4 km resolution, weekly SST product developedby the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration–Coral Reef Watch (NOAA–CRW). The
NOAA AVHRR 22-year data showed a 0.15-0.30 oC/
decade increase in the VIP region (Figure 6). In generalin the VIP, coastal areas experienced less increase
relative to areas offshore. The only exception to thisobservation is the northeast side of Occidental Mindoro
and the northwestern tip of Lubang Island. Offshore
of Calatagan in western Batangas is also exceptional
since it is the only site that shows near-zero increase in
the last 22 years.

0.5
0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5

Niño 3.4
VIP

Figure 7. Niño 3.4 region SST anomalies compared to VIP 5
month running mean. Highlighted beyond the gray shading
are anomalies > ENSO +0.5 C.

• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : introduction

1.0

1.4

1990

1996

2002
2000

0.6

1995

0.2

1984

-1.4 -1.0 -0.6 -0.2

1990

Maximum SST anomaly

I. 1985-1990
II. 1991-1996
III. 1997-2002
IV. 2003-2005

1985

chapter 1

1.8

Figure 8. Annual maximum SST anomaly: Max SST-basemax.
a) 29.5
29.0

SSLonger-term time series SST from HadISST1 (19002008 for the VIP) shows a lesser degree of increase of
only a 0.06°C/decade in the longer-term (Figure 9a).
HadISST1 is an interpolated SST global product of
the UK Met Office Hadley Centre which makes use of“both in situ SST observations from ships and buoys,
and bias-adjusted SST from the satellite-borne AVHRR(inclusion started in 1982)” (Rayner et al. 2003).

28.5

28.0

1966

1972

1965

1970

2008

1960
1960

1978

1954
1955

1948

1942

1936

1930

1924

1918

1912

1906

0.15

SST (detrended)

0.10
0.05
0
-0.05
-0.10
-0.15

smoothed detrended annual SSTc) 2.52.0

annual mean PDO index

2005

1980

1975

1950

1945

1940

1935

1930

1925

1920

1915

1910

1905

1900

-0.20

1.0
0.8

1.5

0.6

1.0

0.4

0.5

0.2

0

0

-0.5

-0.2

-1.0

-0.4

-1.5

-0.6
-0.8

-2.0
-2.5

smoothed annual PDOHigh SST fuels creation of storms. The Philippines, inparticular, lies at the western boundary of the Pacificand typically experiences more than 20 typhoons per
year. Patterns of typhoon generation and propagationin the western North Pacific have been shown to berelated to the ENSO cycle as well as to other large
scale atmospheric circulation (Camargo et al. 2007).
Analysis of western Pacific Typhoon track data thatb) 0.20annual PDO

Increase in cyclonicity

1900

27.5

The 10-yr smoothed and de-trended annual HadISST1(Figure 9b) also compares particularly well with the
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index for the same
period (Figure 9c) (http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
PDO.latest) with an observed lag of 5-10 years.
This observation emphasizes the telecommunication
between the Pacific and the VIP region and suggeststhat use of the last 2-3 decades of data to simulate
future scenarios should be interpreted with caution.
Specifically, all satellite-derived images go back in time
only as far as the last PDO-shift in 1977 from negative
to positive. All synoptic data available therefore belong
to the PDO positive regime. In 2008, the early stageof a cool phase of the PDO was observed. There are
no long-term synoptic data or satellite-derived data to
represent the this cool phase.

smoothed annual mean PDO index-1.0

Figure 9. HadISST1 data for the VIP: a) annual mean SST;b) 10-yr smoothed and detrended annual HadISST1; and c)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index (1900-2008).
9

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

16ºN

15ºN

14ºN

latitude

The Verde Island Passage lies within the track of mostof the typhoons in the western Pacific and it is during
these events that sea conditions can become rough.
Historical typhoon track data (Figure 11a) show that
160 typhoons passed to within 200 km of the VIPfrom 1952-2008 (Japan Meteorology Agency 2009)amounting to about 11% of the total tropical cyclones
in the Western Pacific since the 1950s. The typhoon
track data within 200 km from VIP are shown in (Figure11b). The color of the data points represent year withblue as the oldest (1952) and dark red as the mostrecent (2008), and the size is scaled according to
the storm category. It can be seen that there were nostrong typhoons (Category 4-5) in the period before
1975 and for the most recent years (dark red points),roughly more than half belong to the strong typhoon
categories.

a)

13ºN

12ºN

11ºN
119ºE

120ºE

121ºE

122ºE

123ºE

124ºE

longitude

b)

16ºN
2005

2000

15ºN

1995

1990

14ºN

1985

latitudepassed through the Philippines indicate a southward
shift in the typhoon trajectories in the past decade(Anglo 2005) and an increased relative frequency oftyphoons generated in the South China Sea (Ho et al.
2004) (Figure 10). Several investigators however, haveindicated the high natural variability of tropical storms
and typhoons, which makes it difficult to detect longterm changes that can be attributed to climate change.

1980

1975

13ºN

From the JWTC dataset which starts after WWII, anaverage of two to three storms passed near the VerdeIsland Passage corridor annually. However, there weresome years when at least six typhoons crossed thearea. The highest occurrence was in 1993 with eightstorms (Figure 12).

1970

1065

12ºN
1960

1955

11ºN
119ºE

1.0

40ºN

0.8
0.6

latitude

0.4
0.2

120ºE

121ºE

longitude

122ºE

123ºE

124ºE

Figure 11 a) Plot of typhoon tracks from 1950- 2009; and b)
Storm track data from 1952-2008 within 200 km from VerdeIsland. Size of points scaled to storm category (2-5) whilecolor is scaled to year. (Data source: Japan Meteorology
Agency 2009).

0

20ºN

-0.2

8

-0.4

-0.8

0ºN
100ºE

-1.0

120ºE

140ºE

160ºE

6

frequency

-0.6

4
2

longitude

Figure 10. Number of tropical cyclones are increasing in the
Pacific and significantly passing through the middle of thePhilippines (Anglo 2005).

10

0
1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

year

Figure 12. Storm frequency within a 200 km radius from
Calapan, Mindoro. Data is from JWTC.

2010

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : introduction

Changes in rainfall

PAGASA precipitation records from Calapan,
Mindoro and Ambulong, Batangas for the period
1961 to 2004 show that annual rainfall fluctuatesfrom 1000 to 3500 mm (Figure 13). The two records
display similar seasonal fluctuations but opposing
long-term precipitation trends over the 43-year
period. Annual rainfall has increased in Calapan, but
Ambulong shows an overall decrease. This highlights
the spatial heterogeneity of rainfall and the need formore monitoring stations. More specifically, there isa need for meteorological stations distributed along
representative coastal areas of the VIP.

Sea level rise

The Global Sea Level Observing System has two sites
in the Philippines (i.e., Manila and Legaspi). Both ofthese coastal data show a relative sea-level increaseof between 20cm and 40cm since the 1960s (Figure14). This observed rise is most likely a compounded

consequence of excessive land reclamation, possible
subsidence due to groundwater extraction and residual
rise in sea-level due to warmer oceans.
Altimetry data from the satellites TOPEX–Poseidon(1992-2005) and JASON–1 (2001-present) gives atime series of offshore sea level on either side of Verdepassage (Figure 15). Both sides have undergonechanges fluctuating around mean sea level with theeastern side of the passage being more variable.
Since 2005, there seems to be a more steady positive
increase of about 1.0 mm/yr on the east and 0.5 mm/yr
on the west.
These offshore altimetry observations however are notenough to determine site-specific relative sea level rise.
Unfortunately, there are no long-term tide gauge data
along the VIP. This poses a problem for local decisiondevelopment planning.
a)

10

3500

west

8
6

3000

mean sea level (mm)4annual rainfall (mm)

2500

2000

1500

2
0
-2
-4
-6

1000

500

-8
-10

Calapan, Mindoro
Ambulong, Batangas

b)

0
1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

6
4

mean sea level (mm)

740

east

8

year

Figure 13. Annual rainfall from 1961 to 2004 for Calapan,
Mindoro and Ambulong, Batangas. Data is from PAGASA.

10

2
0
-2
-4

relative sea level (cm)

720
-6
-8

700

-10

Figure 15. SSH time series from satellite altimetry.
680

660
1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

year

Figure 14. Relative annual-mean sea-level for Manila, South
Harbour, (blue; 1901-1997; 14.58°N, 120.93°E)
and Legaspi (red; 1947-1997; 13.15°N, 123.75°E) in thePhilippines. (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/research/philippines.pdf)
11

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Ocean acidification

Increasing dissolved CO2 in ocean water results to
a decrease in ocean pH. This has been observedin Manoa Lua-Pacific time series (Figure 16a). The
decrease in pH is projected to cause harm in marine
life ocean fisheries and mariculture (Cooley and Doney
2009, Pew Center 2009).
The problem is that there are no available long-term
data for the Philippines and therefore it is not part ofany future prediction scenarios (Figure 16b).
a)
400

8.38

atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)
375

seawater pCO2 (uatm)

8.33

seawater pH
8.28

8.18

pH

CO2

350

325
8.13
300

8.08

275
1900

b)

8.03
1920

1960

1940

1980

2000

year

Figure 16. a) Observed decrease in ocean pH. Figure credit:
Richard A. Feely, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory,
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, USA,with atmospheric data from Pieter Tans and seawater datafrom David Karl. Adapted from Feely (2008) in Levinson and
Lawrimore (eds), Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 89(7): S58; andb) Ocean acidification model 2040 from http://colli239.fts.
educ.msu.edu/?p=19864.

12

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : exposure

Exposure
SST in the Verde Island Passage
From the satellite-determined 2009 coral cover inthe Verde Island Passage (VIP), representative sites
were chosen for thermal stress analysis. For a total of
10 sites, accumulated hotspots and degree heating
months were calculated. Accumulated hotspots
pertain to the number of times in a given year that thetemperature reached at least 1 degree higher thanmaximum mean monthly climatological sea surface
temperature (SST). Degree heating months pertain to
number of times the accumulated hotspots lasted for atleast one month in a given year.
Results show that 1998 was definitely a warm year
for all of the sites. Lubang in particular, located in
the western extent of the VIP has also constantly
experienced warm events through the years (Figure17). Surviving live corals in these areas could be
already adapted to warm anomalies and are therefore
good candidates for protection if the aim is to have atleast one remaining surviving site in the VIP in case ofcontinued ocean warming. In contrast Naujan-Gloria
and Marinduque located in the eastern extent seems tobe the least prone to warm anomalies (except for the1998 event).
DHMs show areas where hotspots lasted for at least
one month in a given year (Figure 18). This prolonged
heating is an index of likely mass bleaching occurrencesin the last 20 years. Sites in the middle of the passage
seem to suffer more frequent DHMs. Interestingly,
although Lubang intermittently experience warm
anomalies, it was the only one that did not suffer froma DHM event during the 1998 event. It did however,experience a DHM event in 1985 when none of theother sites did so. In contrast, sites on the eastern
VIP (Batangas East, Marinduque, and Naujan-Gloria)
experienced DHM at no other time but the 1998 event.

1985-1989

Max DHM
1985-1989
1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2005

Figure 18. Degree Heating Months from 1985-2005 for 10
representative sites in the VIP.

The embayments of east Calumpan, west Batangas
Bay, and Naujan-Gloria suffered the highest occurrenceof DHM in 1998. In general, therefore it seems that
reefs in more embayed areas may be more susceptible
to prolonged extreme heating events most likely due
to longer residence time of warm water within bays ascompared to open coasts.

Wave exposure
Wave and storm surge models were used to simulateconditions during natural low (non-storm events) andhigh (storm events) energy conditions. The wave model
was based on third-generation SWAN (Simulating
WAves Nearshore) while the storm surge used the2-dimensional Delft3D Flow model, both developed by
Delft University of Technology (DELFT3D Hydraulics).
Both models were computed on a horizontal orthogonal
curvilinear grid. The wave model made use of coarse
and high resolution nested grids in order to obtainwave and wind conditions in the open boundary of thehigh resolution grid. The coarse grid model covers thenorthern coast of Lubang Island (western boundary)extending to the southern tip of Masbate. The highresolution grid model occupies offshore of Lubang
Island (western boundary) extending to Verde Island
Passage up to the southern tip of Quezon and eastern
coast of Mindoro (southern boundary). Finer grids were
nested to the high resolution grid to investigate wave
energy propagation in specific areas such as Balayan
Bay and Batangas Bay. Wave and wind forcings
imposed at the open boundaries were obtained fromthe available typhoon track analysis (JMA) and archive
forecast data (www.buoyweather.com derived fromWAVEWATCH III of NOAA).

1990-1994
1995-1999
2000-2005

Figure 17. Accumulated HOTSPOTS from 1985-2005 for
10 representative sites in the VIP.
13

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Compared to typhoon intensities east of the Philippines,
typhoons passing near the Verde Island Passage are
weaker because typhoons start to lose some of its
energy as it passes over land. The storm surge potential
was therefore simulated by onshore winds blowing
at wind speeds 20 m/s or roughly 40 knots (72kph)
depicting a typical typhoon condition within the VIP.

Historical data off Lubang Island shows a strong
correlation between winds and waves in the study
area (Figure 19). Wind speeds are generally stronger(8-10 ms-1) during the northeast monsoon months(November-March). Southwest monsoon (JuneOctober) wind speeds are weaker (<5 ms-1) but areinterrupted by spikes in wind speeds associated withtyphoons. The northeast monsoon dominates the windfield at this location. Consequently, the wind forcing
used for the monsoon wind wave simulations was
based on the mean northeast monsoon wind velocities
and was assumed to be spatially uniform because notenough weather data are available within the VIP toresolve spatial variations.
Wave simulations were conducted during the monsoon
season for three selected years: 1997, 1998, and2008. Overall, the wave fetch within Verde Passage is
not large because of the narrow configuration of thepassage thus waves do not develop into large waves
during typical monsoon conditions. The significant
wave height field showed an inter-annual variation very
similar to the wind strength; the wave height was lowest(0.25 m) in 1998, followed by 0.35 m wave height in
1997, and highest in 2008 at 0.5 m (Figure 20). The
weakening of monsoonal winds thereby dropping ofwave heights in 1998 may be associated to ENSO
events which alters the large scale monsoonal system.

The predicted storm surge showed an overall sea
level rise by only 0.01 m to 0.04 m at the west of VIP(Figure 21). The coastline topography shelters mostof the Verde Passage from large waves. Areas prone
to surges in Verde Island Passage are those that are
exposed to wide areas of water such as the coastlines
facing the Sibuyan sea (eastern Batangas, Quezon andeastern Mindoro coasts) and those facing the South
China Sea including Lubang Island.
To examine the effect of extreme storm winds onwaves within the Verde Passage, the waves during two
periods in the life of Category 5 Typhoon Niña in 1987
were simulated with a maximum wind speed of around1.60

water level (m)18 Jun 2008 06:00:00

x 106

0.04

0.03

1.55

0.02

TS Julian

wave height (m)TY Frank

TY OfelTY Cosme

3

20
16
12

2
8
1

4

wind speed (m/s)

wind speed4

TS = tropical storm
TY = typhoon

y coordinate (m)0.01

wave height

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

0

-0.01

1.45

-0.02

1.40
-0.03

0

0

1.50

-0.04

1.35

12

1.5

2

2.5

3

month

3.5

4

4.5

5
x 105

x coordinate (m)Figure 19. 2008 daily average wind speed and wave heightoff Lubang Is. showing positive response to typhoon events.

-0.05

Figure 21. Sea level distribution forced by northeasterly
winds blowing at 40 knots.
0.50

0.45

1.60

hsig wave height (m)08 Nov 1997 00:00:00

x 106

hsig wave height (m)08 Nov 1998 00:00:00

hsig wave height (m)08 Nov 2008 00:00:00

0.40

0.35

1.55

y coordinate (m)

0.30

1.50
0.25

1.45

0.20

1.40

0.15

1.35
1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

x coordinate (m)

4

4.5
x 105

2

2.5

3

3.5

x coordinate (m)

4

4.5
x 105

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

x coordinate (m)Figure 20. Significant wave height in the Verde Island Passage for 1997 (left), 1998 (middle), and 2008 (right).
14

4

4.5

5
x 105

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : exposure

80 knots. Even during this high intensity event, winds
within the Verde Passage move across the passage
thus fetch is limited and waves do not become fully
developed. The maximum significant wave heights
were about 10m and were found in the area east andnortheast of Marinduque.
For the first period, the center of the storm can beseen in the area west of Marinduque with relatively low
significant wave heights (Figure 22a). Within the Verde
Passage, waves can still be significant (8m) althoughsmaller in magnitude compared to the waves in the
Sibuyan Sea. An estimate of the amount of wave energy
available at the coast to stir up sediments and infererosion potential is the plot of bottom orbital velocity(Figure 22b). Note that the largest values of orbital
velocity are found in areas with shallow gently sloping
bathymetry such as along the coast of Tayabas Bay andthe northern coast of Lubang.
a)

For the second period used was after a period of 6hours, the typhoon has moved westwards and thecenter can be found west of Puerto Galera. Maximum
significant wave heights can still be found in thenorthwestern Sibuyan Sea along the coast of Batangas
and Quezon (Figure 23a). Wave heights within the
VIP although quite large, are still much lower than the
maximum significant wave heights.
Surprisingly the areas with high bottom orbital velocities
are essentially the same as the model results 6 hours
earlier (Figure 23b). These areas have two things incommon; shallow gently sloping bathymetries and wide
expanse of water facing the coast.
With almost 160 typhoons going through within 200 km
from Verde Island since 1952, it becomes necessary
to integrate the effects of all these typhoons to assess
the vulnerability with regards to storminess. This was
b)

20'

20'

9

0.9

8

0.8

14ºN

14ºN
7

0.7

40'

latitude

40'

5

0.6

latitude

6

0.5

20'

20'
4

0.4

3

13ºN

13ºN

0.3

2

40'

120ºE

0.2

40'

1

30'

121ºE

30'

122ºE

0.1

120ºE

30'

30'

121ºE

30'

122ºE

30'

longitude

longitude

Figure 22. Simulations for a category 5 typhoon when storm was still on the eastern side of the VIP. a) Significant wave height
during typhoon with center west of Marinduque, and b) Bottom orbital velocity during typhoon with center west of Marinduque.
a)

b)
20'

20'

9

0.9

8

0.8

14ºN

14ºN
7

0.7

40'

latitude

40'

5

0.6

latitude

6

0.5

20'

20'
4

3

13ºN

0.4

13ºN

0.3

2

40'

120ºE

1

30'

121ºE

30'

longitude

122ºE

30'

0.2

40'
0.1

120ºE

30'

121ºE

30'

122ºE

30'

longitude

Figure 23. Simulations for a category 5 typhoon when storm was still on the western side of the VIP. a) Significant wave
height (m) during a typhoon with the center located near Puerto Galera, and b) Bottom orbital velocity (ms-1) from wave model
forced by typhoon with center west of Puerto Galera.
15

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

done by getting the frequency of storm track data
points along a grid over the VIP and running wave
simulations for storm locations at the center of eachgrid. The resulting wave fields were then averaged
weighted by their frequency. The resulting average
wave heights are shown in Figure 24 . Note that thehighest average wave heights are found in the Sibuyan
Sea to the east of Verde Passage covering the eastern
coast of Batangas, the northeast coast of Mindoro andthe western coast of Marinduque. The next highest
wave heights are found in areas to the east of Lubang
20'

6

14ºN

5

40'

latitude

4

20'
3

13ºN
2

40'
1

120ºE

30'

121ºE

30'

122ºE

30'

or the western part of the Verde Passage. In general,
the areas where the largest waves are found are also
the areas where wave fetch is longer (i.e., more wide
open ocean area) thus waves have sufficient time anddistance for it to fully develop.

Coastal erosion
The coastal response to rising sea level is controlled by
the balance between the underlying lithology, coastal
gradient, sediment supply, and exposure to coastal
processes such as tides and waves. Continuing rise in
sea level will cause coastal erosion or enhance that are
already occurring. Low lying coastal plains will likewise
be affected by seawater inundation, flooding, and storm
surges, which will cause drastic changes to coastal
habitats, infrastructures, and livelihood. The possible
contribution of sediment supply and wave processes toshoreline changes was explored.
Only wide coastal plains were included in the work
because changes in shoreline positions there areamenable to analysis using satellite images. Where
rivers are small or absent, the changes in shoreline
position cannot be resolved using the resolution ofavailable satellite images.

longitude

Figure 24. Average wave height field calculated from storm
frequency and location of historical storms within the Verde
Passage.

Lian River—Nasugbu

The sandy linear coast fronting Nasugbu Bay, from Wawa to
San Diego Point, is about 5 km long and has an associatedcoastal plain that is more than 250 m wide (Figure 25). The
satellite images show a more seaward shoreline position thanthat of the 1979 topographic map. Sometime between 1979
and 1992, Lian river shifted its course about 1.2 km northwardfrom its previous position. Maximal progradation of 250 m has
occurred within the area of the new river mouth. Progradation
decreases away from the river mouth.

Figure 25. Changes in shoreline position
along Lian-Nasugbu coast.
16

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : exposure

Banabang-Molino River—Balayan

Banabang-Molino is one of the watersheds
draining Balayan (Figure 26). The satellite
images show a net land gain of about
100 meters just near its river mouth. The
coast east of Balayan, on the other hand,which is relatively straight and dissectedby several small rivers, shows both erosion
and progradation brought about by humanmodifications. Between 1953 and 1992,
Dacanlao River appears to have shiftedfrom a slightly meandering to a straightchannel—from a NE-SW orientation to amore north-south position. This change inchannel course is probably man-made andis probably related to land modifications
during the establishment of the Calaca
power plant. Progradation by as much as
Figure 26. Changes in shoreline position along Banabang-Molino80 meters appears to have occurred at the
Balayan coast.
river mouth. However, this progradation
is likely to due to the river straightening. Before 2002, coastal modifications were made off the power plantcomplex. These coastal modifications led to ~200 m erosion and ~200 m progradation west and east of thepower plant, respectively.

Pansipit River—Lemery

Figure 27. Changes in shoreline position along Pansipit-Lemery
coast.

Pansipit River, which drains Taal Lake,is located northeast of Balayan Bay.
Downstream, Pansipit River splits into
two with one of the distributaries passing
through the built-up area of Lemery (Figure27). The coastal plain is relatively wideat about 1.2 km. Progradation of about
80 m occurred between the 1950s and1992. The northern river mouth also shifted
towards the northwest. Erosion, reaching
40 m in front of the built-up area, ensued
between 1992 and 2002. The following
years from 2002 to 2009, the area has
again prograded by as much as 80 meters.
Overall, from 1950s to present, thePansipit River coastal plain shows a net
land gain of as much as 150 m.

17

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Kampumpong River—Batangas City

Between 1947 to 2009, erosion of about 200 m occurredalong the mouth of Kampungpong River in Batangas City
(Figure 28). Topographic maps reflecting conditions prior to1947 indicate that mangroves covered this area. However, aGoogle Earth® image indicates that the mangrove is no longer
there. Removal of the mangrove is likely linked to the erosion.
Large constructions and expansions of piers along the coast of
Batangas City also took place in recent years. These include
the oil refineries of Caltex and Shell located north and south of
the river mouth, respectively; the expanded Batangas pier anda large excavated land near Santa Clara prior to 2009. These
coastal modifications would have altered the pathways of
sediments resulting to erosion.

Figure 28. Changes in shoreline position
along Kampumpong-Batangas City coast.

Abra de Ilog

The river mouth and flanks of Abra deIlog, from 1953 to 2001, show a net land
gain of about 300 m and erosion of ~150m between 2001 and 2009 (Figure 29).
Erosion is probably due to the constructionof a pier about 2 km east of the rivermouth. Pebble picking activities is most
likely contributing to, if not the main cause,of the erosion west of the river mouth.

Figure 29. Changes in shoreline position along Abra de Ilog coast.

18

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : exposure

Malaylay-Baco

Erosion of as much as 300-m occurredalong the Baco-Malaylay delta between
1953 and 2001 (Figure 30). From 2001
to 2009, this coastline remained stable.
The erosion prior to 2001 may have been
triggered by liquefaction caused by themagnitude 7.1 earthquake on a segment
of Lubang Fault, south of Verde Islandon November 15, 1994. This earthquake
also generated a tsunami that inundated
the northeastern coast of Mindoro from
Puerto Galera to Pinamalayan, Bacoislands, and Verde Island (Phil. Insti. Vol.
Seis. 1994). The tsunami also traveled
northwards affecting Batangas Bay andLobo (Imamura et al. 1995). Coastal
lowlands along the Calapan Bay including
Figure 30. Changes in shoreline position along Malaylay-Baco
Malaylay, Baco, Wawa, and Baco islands
coast.
were hardest hit by the tsunami of at least
6 m high, flooding areas 50 to 200 m landward. Highest wave run-up of as high as 8.5 m occurred in BacoIsland. The steep coastal gradient also facilitated the strong rundown that caused beach erosion of about 20
m. On the other hand, in the gently sloping delta plains of the Malaylay-Wawa coast, aggradation occurred.
Strong incoming waves scoured sands along the foreshore area and deposited the sediments inland forminga ridge, which was preserved because of the weakened backflow in relatively flat areas. The rest of Calapan,
San Teodoro, and Puerto Galera experienced tsunami ranging from 2 to 3 m high. Low run-up heights of 0.5
m, 0.9, and 1.2 were respectively observed in Pola, Pinamalayan, and Naujan (Phil. Insti. Vol. Seis. 1994).

Mag-asawang Tubig

Figure 31. Changes in shoreline position along Mag-asawang TubigNaujan coast.

From 1950s to 2009, there was a net
land loss at the mouth and net land gain
along the flanks of the Mag-asawang
Tubig River in Naujan, Oriental Mindoro(Figure 31). This trend is possibly due
to river switching upstream which may
have been induced by differences inriver discharge and amount of sedimentload. The 1977 topographic map
shows that Mag-asawang Tubig directly
drained into the Verde Island Passage
just north of Bgy. Estrella in Naujan. But
recent Google Earth® images indicatethat at present, Mag-asawang Tubig
joins the Bucayao River upstream,
before emptying to the Verde Island
Passage through the Silonay River in
Calapan.

19

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Coastal erosion in Batangas City and Calapan
is attributed to improperly placed and designed
engineering structures and removal of mangrove
forests; and liquefaction due to tsunami associatedwith 7.1M 1994 earthquake, respectively. Overall, a
net land gain is observed on most of the delta plains
during the last 50 to 60 years. This net land gain isprobably due to the large sediment supply to the coastthat is still able to offset the effect of sea level rise.
Typically, sediment yield increases during high riverdischarge events. In Batangas, land progradation indelta plains coincide with periods of high annual rainfall,
while erosion occurred during periods of decreased
precipitation over the last 40 years. In Mindoro, periodsof high precipitation over the last decade may haveresulted in high discharge events and rain-induced
landslides that in turn caused recent shifts in the courseof Mag-asawang Tubig River. Consequently, new lands
are being formed along the new river mouth in Calapan
while the old river mouth in Naujan is undergoing
erosion. The episode of net erosion from 1990s to
early 2000 coincides as well with a period when morestorms passed through the region; the years 1993 and1995 had 8 and 7 storms, respectively.
The observed net land gain in most of the shorelines
along the VIP corridor may be beneficial to theremaining mangrove areas along this corridor suchthat it can possibly offset the effect of sea level rise
(Siringan et al., this report). Newly accreted lands may
be a potential landward progression area for mangroves
given the right condition for its recruitment, settlement
and survival.

Marine flooding
Changes in shoreline positions, over the last 50 yearsof coastal plains within the Verde Island Passage (VIP)
corridor were established through time-series analysis
of maps and remotely sensed images. The likelihood
to marine inundation resulting from a 1-m, 2-m, or 3-m
sea-level rise was estimated from the 30-m Advanced
Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection
Radiometer (ASTER) data sets. The spatial resolutionof the images limits the analysis only to coastal plainsthat cover more than 30 m. In rocky coasts, which are
typically associated with narrow beaches, the extent ofinundation is no longer evident.
The low-lying coastal plains of Batangas are themost vulnerable to inundation by a 1 meter rise of sea
level. Based on pixel counts alone, the land that will
be inundated is about 175 ha in Nasugbu, 795 ha inCalatagan, 199 ha in Balayan, and 122 ha in Batangas
City. Sea level rise of 1 m will predominantly affect the
mangrove and fishpond areas. Two and 3-m (Figure32) rises of sea level were also mapped. Areas such
20

	
  

Figure 32. Shaded in red are the areas to be inundated by a
3-m rise of sea level.

as Nasugbu, Balayan, Batangas, Boac, and Calapanthat experienced rapid accretion in recent years, are themost vulnerable to coastal inundation.
Table 1 summarizes the areas that will likely beinundated given a 1-m, 2-m, and 3-m sea level rise.
Built-up areas in Balayan and Lemery are vulnerable
even to just 1 and 2-m rise in sea level. Two to 3-m
rise in sea level will inundate rice fields and coconut
plantations that are about 5 to 10 kilometers further
inland, especially in Nasugbu and Calapan.
Table 1. Area (ha) to be inundated given a 1-m, 2-m, 3-m sea level rise
(SLR).
1-m SLR2-m SLR

3-m SLR

Batangas
NasugbuLian
Calatagan
Canda, Balayan, Calaca
Lemery, Taal, San Luis
Bauan, Mabini, Tingloy
San Nicolas, Batangas CityLobo
San Juan

175.08140.86795.21199.09154.64203.22
122.31
62.28
92.8

519.24373.6
1227.12552.34286.13358.38242.91
97.2
152.2

1049.88676.181700.25902.26504.29532.62440.37152.28267.31

MindoroLubangPaluanAbra de Ilog
Puerto Galera, San Teodoro, Baco, VerdeCalapanNaujanPola, Pinamalayan

413.37242.28119.79208.25110.02217.3986.85

681.39493.92220.86364.58204.43303.16141.931069.02
837.36402.84652.76527.17533.92262.35

Marinduque236.75414.59649.67

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : exposure

Exacerbating features of the VIPThe Verde Island Passage (VIP) corridor is within avery tectonically active area where there are numerous
active faults and volcanoes and where earthquakes arevery frequent (Figure 33). Several volcanoes are alsopresent in the area including Mt. Taal and Mt. Banahaw
which are both classified as active.
Consequent vertical land movements and tsunamis
generated from these earthquakes can modify thevulnerability of coasts to sea-level rise due to global
warming. Liquefaction, subsidence and tsunami cancause extensive and rapid coastal inundation, thus,
global sea-level rise would be amplified. On the other
hand, land emergence or uplift can counter the effectof sea-level rise. The predominance of net land gain,
during a period when sea level is supposed to be rising,can be due to uplift. However, there are no tide gauge

records in the VIP corridor that can be examined to test
this idea. Relatively loose pyroclastic materials whichabound upstream, are easily mobilized downstream
even by normal river flow. Landslides triggered byearthquakes help in supplying more sediment to thecoast.
At the upstream end of the rivers, long steep slopes
have practically no forest cover, which also promotes
higher sediment yield. Siltation caused by massive
deforestation elsewhere in the Philippines cause not
only shift in species composition but also mortality ofseagrasses. In Batangas, where sugarcane is a major
agricultural product, erosion is not arrested by any
structure that would break the flow of surface runoff
resulting in high rates of erosion. In rice fields, surface
runoff passes through a series of paddies which
promote settling of sediments before the water reaches
a river thereby lowering the sediment load a bit.

Shape = Magnitude
>7
14ºN

5-7
3-5

Color = Depth (km)latitude38 - 75
75 - 177
117 - 154

13ºN

154 - 199
> 199

120ºE

121ºE

122ºE

longitude

Figure 33. Tectonic and earthquake epicenter map of the Verde Island Passage
Corridor. The active faults mapped by Phil. Insti. Vol. Seis. are the following:
1-Philippine Fault Zone; 2-WMVF; 3-Lubang Fault; 4-Central Mindoro Fault;
5-Aglubang River Fault; 6-Southern Mindoro Fault; and, 7-Central MarinduqueFault. Earthquake epicenters were compiled by the NEIC-USGS.

21

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Sensitivity
Habitat and data description

Table 3. Study sites and municipalities considered in the vulnerability
assessment of the coral and reef fish communities in the Verde Island
Passage.

Coral

Coral reefs are the most dominant habitat in the VIP,
with a total reef area of around 7,031 hectares of which
about 1,767 hectares are covered by live coral (Table2). Based on the satellite images, the reefs are fringing
and generally narrow. The coral reef areas are mostly
shallow, particularly on inshore areas near the bay
heads. Although, some reefs still occur in deep areas
particularly in the bay mouths (e.g., Bauan municipality
in Batangas). The reefs are well developed on the westside of the VIP, particularly in Calatagan (including themunicipalities of Lian, Calatagan, and Nasugbu) and
Lubang (including municipalities of Lubang and Looc,
and Ambil Island) areas. On a per province basis, reefareas are more extensive in Batangas, compared to
Mindoro Occidental, Mindoro Oriental, and Marinduque.
Data used for the analysis were obtained from the 2007
to 2008 surveys of the municipalities surrounding the
Verde Island Passage. These data sets were originallycollected from various researchers that were contracted
by Conservation International–Philippines to conductmarine protected area site identification and monitoringassessments. A total of 41 survey stations belonging
to eight (8) municipalities were considered in thisassessment. Table 3 presents the municipalities andsurvey stations that were included in this study.
Each site indicated in Table 3, were used as replicates
to compute for the percentage cover of live hard corals
per municipality. Data used were obtained with the useof video or phototransect methods.
Overall status of the coral communities in the VerdeIsland Passage fell under the poor category with24% mean cover of live hard corals (Table 4). The
municipalities of Mabini, Looc, and Nasugbu had
the highest live hard cover but still fell under the faircategory (Gomez et al. 1994) with percent cover valuesof 33.8%, 29.4%, and 29.3% respectively. Batangas
Table 2. Area (ha) of coastal habitat in the Verde Island Passage.
Live corals
Bay area		Lubang Island
Calatagan
East Calumpan
Batangas Bay West
Batangas Bay East
Maricaban Island
West MarinduqueWawa-Paluan
Puerto Galera-Naujan
Naujan-Gloria

572
560
16
2
172
20
7
121
248
49

Mixed
LC+DCA+RCK

1118
802
7
0
168
10
10
104
174
68

Overgrown Abiotics Total
DCA+RCK
S+R
area
759
670
0
0
60
2
0
27
48
3

LC–live corals; DCA–dead coral with algae; RCK–rock; S–sand; R–rubble

22

189
146
23
8
93
35
1
147
565
27

2638
2178
46
10
493
67
18
399
1035
147

Municipality
Batangas

Calatagan

Looc

LubangMabini

Nasugbu
San Juan

Tingloy

Study sites
GrottoNapayong
Pitong Gatang
Promontory/ Matuko Pt.
East Sta. Ana
Gulod
Karitonan/ Carretunan
South Bagong Silang
Talisay
TanaganWest Bagong SilangWest Sta Ana
Antipolo
East Tabajin
Nagbati
PandanTagbananWest Tabajin
Ambil
BalaginEast Vigo
Nagtalon
TagbakWest Vigo
Cazador Pt.
Ligaya North
Ligaya South
Mainit School
Fuego Point
Sunset cove
CatmonHugom
ImeldaKalubkub/ Calubcub
Laiya Aplaya
Laiya Ibabao
Puting Buhangin
Tikalaan
Bonito Island
Devil’s Pt.
Malahibong Manok

Survey date

Researchers

Oct-08

CI–Hilomen et al.

May-07

CI–Menez and Cabansag

Oct-08

CI–Menez et al.

Oct-08

CI–Menez et al.

Oct-08

CI–Hilomen et al.

Aug-08

CI–Menez and Cabansag

Aug-08

CI–Menez and Cabansag

Oct-08

CI–Hilomen et al.

Table 4. Percentage cover of living hard coral (LHC) per municipality in the
Verde Island Passage.
Municipality

Year

Sites

% LHC coverBatangas City
Calatagan
Looc
LubangMabini
Nasugbu
San Juan
Tingloy
Mean

2008
2007
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008
2008

4
8
6
6
3
2
8
3

12.9
24.2
29.4
24.8
33.8
29.3
19.6
19.2
24.2

City had the lowest percentage of live hard corals with
only 12.9%. The municipalities of Calatagan, Lubang,
San Juan, and Tingloy fell under the poor category
with covers of 24.2%, 24.8%, 19.6%, and 19.2%
respectively.

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : sensitivity

Seagrass

all of the sites surveyed. According to this report,
the multispecies meadows in these islands werecomparable with areas in Palawan and Guimaras.

Table 5 lists the number of species and species
composition in areas around VIP where seagrass
assessment reports were available for this study.
Most of the seagrass areas included in this study
have 8 species except for Puerto Galera which has
10 species due to the presence of Halophila minorand H. spinulosa. In a study conducted by Tiquio andCayabyab (2008) in Calatagan, they reported that the
species diversity in this area is comparable with
Cagayancillo, and Balabac, Palawan, however it is lessextensive than those areas studied in Palawan. In termsof abundance, they reported that Calatagan seagrassmeadows are less dense than Cagayancillo but denser
than Tubbataha and Balabac.

Most of the seagrass meadows that surround the
VIP are in constant threat from overexploitation of its
associated organisms (i.e., sea cucumber, sea urchin),coastal developments (i.e., resort establishment) andeven mangrove afforestation (i.e., Calatagan).

Mangrove

The total area of mangrove forests surrounding the
VIP in Batangas and Oriental Mindoro is 1,494.16
ha, 716.16 ha in Batangas, and 778 ha in Oriental
Mindoro. Most of these mangrove areas are of theriverine and fringing types dominated by species of
Rhizophora and Avicennia. However, most of thesemangrove areas are near coastal communities andare being affected by anthropogenic activities suchas conversion to fishponds, and resort and port
establishment.

In an assessment conducted in Lubang Islands,
Occidental Mindoro (Genito et al. 2009), results
showed that the percentage seagrass cover in theseareas ranged from low to moderate with 46% of thesurveyed sites showing moderate cover, but mostly on
the low-end values of the range. Thalassia hemprichii
and Cymodocea rotundata were noted in almost

Table 6 and Figure 34 present a summary of available
information on the condition of mangrove forests inthe provinces of Batangas and Oriental Mindoro. The
only information available for analysis were the type ofmangrove forest and substrate, areal extent, dominant
species and issues and problems affecting thesemangrove areas. No available information on the density
and other parameters that will characterize the present
mangrove cover in these areas were accessible at thetime of data collection.

Table 5. Number of species and species composition in Lian andCalatagan, Batangas; Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro; and Lubang,
Occidental Mindoro.
Municipality

No. of species

Species composition

BatangasLian

8Ea, Th, Cr, Cs, Hp, Hu, Ho, Si(Talim Bay CRM Plan)

Batangas
Calatagan

8

Ea, Th, Cr, Cs, Hp, Hu, Ho, Si(Tiquio and Cayabyab, 2008)

Oriental Mindoro
Puerto Galera

10Ea, Th, Cr, Cs, Hp, Hu, Hm, Ho,
Hs, Si (Fortes, 1997)

Occidental Mindoro
Lubang8

Ea, Th, Cr, Cs, Hp, Hu, Ho, Si(Genito et al, 2009)

Ea–Enhalus acoroides, Th–Thalassia hemprichii, Cr–Cymodocea rotundata, Cs–Cymodocea serrulata,
Hp–Halodule pinifolia, Hu–Halodule uninervis, Hm–Halophila minor, Ho–Halophila ovalis,
Hs–Halophila spinulosa, Si–Syringodium isoetifolium

Table 6. Available information on the status of mangrove forests in Batangas and Oriental Mindoro.
Province/municipality

Type ofmangrove forest

Type ofsubstrate

Area
(ha)

Issues and concerns

Batangas
Balayanfringing/riverine

sandy/clay loam

19.09

•

Batangas City

fringing/riverine

sandy/clay loam/muddy

23.64

•

Calatagan

fringing

coralline/stony/rocky/muddy

244.98•Lian
San Juanfringing/riverine
fringing/riverine

sandy/clay loam
coralline/sandy/clay loam/muddy

79.99
348.46••

Oriental Mindoro
Calapan City

riverine/fringing

sandy/clay loam/muddy

332.00•NaujanBaco
Polariverine/fringing
fringing/riverine
no datasandy/clay loam/muddy
sandy/clay loam/muddy
no data

165.00134.00147.00•••conversion to fishponds; establishment of resorts; presence of coastal
communities; illegal cutting
development of industries and ports; presence of coastal communities;
conversion to fishponds
conversion to fishponds and saltbeds; establishment of resorts; presence ofcoastal communities; illegal cutting; existing tenurial instruments
conversion to fishponds; presence of coastal communities; illegal cutting
conversion to fishponds; presence of coastal communities; illegal cutting;gleaning activities
presence of coastal communities; conversion to fishponds; presence ofpiggeries; illegal cutting
presence of coastal communities; conversion to fishponds; illegal cutting
presence of coastal communities/ conversion to fishponds; illegal cutting
illegal cutting; conversion to other uses23

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Porites sp., followed by Acropora
sp., Diploastrea heliopora, Montipora
sp., Goniastrea sp., Echinopora sp.,
Pocillopora sp., and Seriatopora sp.
In the subsequent analyses, theabove data on generic composition
was only considered in theassessing the impact of sea surface
temperature increase on coral cover.
Hence, the projections on coverloss due to storms and sea level riseassumed coral genera were equallysensitive to these factors sinceno “dose”-response function wasavailable for coral communities.

A total of 61 coral genera were observed along thesurvey transects during the assessments (Table 7).
The municipality of Mabini had the highest numberof observed coral genera, with 45 genera present.
Nasugbu municipality on the other hand, had the lowest
number of observed coral genera with only 28 genera
noted. Around 39 to 44 coral genera were observedin the remaining municipalities of Batangas City,
Calatagan, Looc, Lubang, San Juan, and Tingloy. The
reefs assessed were mostly dominated with the coral24

diversity loss (%)

Impacts of climate change (e.g.,temperature increases, sea-level rise,
Figure 34. Dominant species present in mangrove areas included in this study
storminess) on coral diversity werealong the VIP (Af- Aegiceras floridum, Am- Avicennia marina, Ao- A. officinalis,analyzed in two stages, beginningNf- Nypa fruticans, Ra- Rhizophora apiculata, Rm- R. mucronata, Rs- R. stylosa,with the estimation of coral cover
Sa- Sonneratia alba, Sc- Sonneratia caseolaris).
loss described earlier. The inverted
species-area
curve
based on the Calamianes study by
Method of assessing sensitivity
Veron and Fenner (2000) was then used to estimate
Coral
the loss of coral diversity from the projected coral cover
Percentage of live hard coral cover and number(=area of habitat) loss (Figure 35). This species-areaof observed coral genera of each survey site permunicipality were collated for the analysis. Percentage
Table 7. Total number of coral genera observed per municipality in theof live coral cover per municipality was calculated by
Verde Island Passage.
getting the average of the percentage coral cover
Municipality
Sites# genera
Dominent generaof all the reefs surveyed in that municipality. The
number of genera was determined based on what was
4
Batangas City
39
Porites8
Calatagan
44
Porites, Diploastrea, Galaxea
encountered along the survey transects in each of these
6
Looc
41
Porites, Acropora, Montipora, Echinopora
towns. Total number of genera was obtained by pooling
6
Lubang39
Porites, Acropora, Seriatopora
all the occurrences of the coral genera per municipality.
3
Mabini45
Porites, Acropora, Montipora
2
Nasugbu28
Porites
Dominant genera were based on the occurrences of
8
San Juan42
Porites, Diploastrea, Goniastrea
the coral genera per site in each municipality. Very little
3
Tingloy
41
Acropora, Pocillopora, Porites
species level data is available for almost all reefs in
the Philippines. The authors also had to rely on reports
100(some of which were still unfinished at the time this90
analysis was made) and thus were in no position to80
assess the relative importance of the other factors such70
as proximity to human settlements and activities that60
might be relevance to the sensitivity of particular coral
50
communities to climate change.
y = 0.0066e
4.5855x40

R2 = 0.9585

30
20
10
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

area loss (%)

Figure 35. Inverted species-area curve based on theCalamianes (Veron and Fenner 2000). Coral diversity loss
was determined by calculating the y-value using the formula
shown above.

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : sensitivity

curve was used since it is the only published accountavailable for the Philippines. However, the estimates
computed from these are considered conservative
because the Veron and Fenner’s curve is basedon beta/between-reef diversity while the current
application is seeks to estimate changes in alpha/within-reef diversity. The latter is typically much higher
locally.
Coral diversity loss due to sea surface temperature
increase was estimated by obtaining the percentage ofcoral genera that will be lost by removing the thermallysensitive coral genera listed in Pratchett et al. (2008)(Table 8). Lower range estimates were obtained byremoving the top 10 most vulnerable genera from thetotal genera present per municipality. Whereas, higher
range estimates were calculated by removing all thevulnerable coral genera based on the list to the total
genera present in each municipality. This decision isarbitrary since, again, no dose-response curve for coral
communities and bleaching is available and thus webased the cut-off on observations of vulnerable taxa
made in western Batangas during the 1998 bleaching
event, apparently the worst one for the VIP (Arceo et
al. 2001). The estimates based on projected coverloss and the species-area curve served as the lower
range estimates of diversity loss, whereas the direct
vulnerabilities served as the higher range estimates.
Table 8. Coral genera thermally sensitive to bleaching events.
Acropora sp.
Stylophora sp.
Mycedium sp.
Isopora sp.
Montastrea sp.
Hydnophora sp.
Coeloseris sp.
Cyphastrea sp.
Pocillopora sp.
Montipora sp.
Source: Pratchett et al. 2008.

Leptoria sp.
Echinophyllia sp.
Lobophyllia sp.
Acanthastrea sp.
Goniopora sp.
Pectinia sp.
Galaxea sp.
Goniastrea sp.
Seriatopora sp.
Porites sp.

Favia sp.
Echinopora sp.
Favites sp.
Pavona sp.
Merulina sp.
Turbinaria sp.
Astreopora sp.

The assumptions of Pratchett et al. (2008) were basedon the numerous studies on the hierarchy of bleachingsusceptibilities of coral genera. Impacts of climateinduced coral bleaching are less selective compared
to increased storminess and Acanthaster planci outbreaks. Thermal sensitivities of coral genera havebeen attributed to physiological and morphologicalattributes such as colony integration, tissue thickness
and sensitivities of symbiotic zooxanthellae. Moreover,differences in depth and habitats, history of thermal
stresses and hydrodynamics also play crucial roles incoral bleaching susceptibility.

Seagrass and mangrove

The sensitivity assessment of mangrove and seagrassareas surrounding the VIP was conducted using
available secondary information from municipal
and provincial agriculture offices, coastal resource
management plans and assessment reports fromvarious institutions. Using the most relevant information,
the status and sensitivity of mangroves and seagrasses
to climate change were assessed based on likely
response to the climate change component that will
have greatest impact on these ecosystems. In particular,mangroves’ sensitivity to increasing sea level rise wasassessed based on the effects of flooding and the mostavailable areas for recruitment and settlement. The
vulnerability of these areas was assessed using McLeod
and Salm (2006) vulnerability conditions (Table 9).
Seagrass’ sensitivity and vulnerability to increasing sea
surface temperature and storm frequency and intensity
were assessed using information from Campbell et al.
(2006), Duarte et al. (1997), and Terrados et al. (1998).
In particular, seagrass response to thermal stress,
sediment perturbation, and eutrophication were givenemphasis to assess the vulnerability of this ecosystem
to climate change. However, since the available data
did not include information on the zonation of species
within a meadow, the sensitivity assessment was
species-specific.

25

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Table 9. An assessment of mangrove vulnerability to sea-level rise based on environmental conditions.
Vulnerability
Mostvulnerable

Local conditions
low relief islands

lack of rivers
carbonate settings

Leastvulnerable

areas subsiding due to tectonic
movements, groundwater extraction, or
underground mining
micro-tidal sediment-starved environments(small Caribbean islands) (Ellison 1993)
mangroves blocked by coastal development
or steep topographymangroves in deep sediment on highislands

Explanation
•
•
•
•
•
•

•
•
•

low rates of sediment and peat accretion, particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise because they are subject to drought
and wave erosion
expected to experience increased flooding, inundation and salinization of soils and freshwater (Shea et al. 2001)
lack of sediment and freshwater
often associated with atolls and islands, where landward migration to escape sea-level rise may not be possible
sediments are mostly locally derived
will experience higher sea-level rise and inundationlack of sediment will lead to decreased geographic distribution and species diversity of mangroves (Houghton et al.
2001)
unable to move inland when sea level rises

riverine mangroves••

macro-tidal sediment rich environments(mangroves in northern Australia)
mangroves with room to move landward(backed by low-lying areas, salt flats,
undeveloped areas)
mangroves in remote areasmangroves surrounded by flourishing dense
mangrove forests•

structurally stronger than mangroves in shallow sediment on low islands (Gillison 1980) and less vulnerable to storm
surges than low islands (UNEP 1994)
high islands will be better adapted to survive predicted climate changes due to their larger surface areas, freshwater
availability, better soils, and more diverse resources (Shea et al. 2001)
receive large amounts of sediment from other areas (Woodroffe and Grindrod 1991)
most productive mangrove habitats due to high nutrient concentrations associated with sediment trapping (Ewel et al.
1998)
access to sediment and strong tidal currents to redistribute sediment (Woodroffe and Grindrod 1991)•

have the opportunity to expand inland when sea level rises••

have limited anthropogenic stresses and not blocked by coastal communities from moving landward
have steady supply of propagules and seeds•

Source: McLeod and Salm 2006.

Sea surface temperature impact
Coral

Increasing sea surface temperatures have been
documented as a cause of coral bleaching. Seasurface temperature (SST) vulnerability estimates ofcoral communities were computed by subtracting thepercentage covers of the taxa that are susceptible
to temperature increases. Lower range estimates
were calculated by removing the percentage coverof Acropora sp., whereas the higher range estimates
were calculated by removing the percentage coverof Acropora sp. and pocilloporids (Pocillopora sp.,
Seriatopora sp,. and Stylophora sp.). Acroporids andpocilloporids are deemed to be the most thermallysensitive due to the low thermal thresholds of thesefamilies, their symbionts, and other factors. There havealso been observations of high mortalities in Lian,
Batangas where the first coral bleaching cases in the1998 bleaching (the worse one on record) where firstobserved (Arceo et al. 2001) and is the only place
where it has been studied in the entire VIP region.
Although analyses of past thermal events suggest
this part of the VIP is more prone to temperaturefluctuations, the response of acroporids andpocilloporids were similar in other parts of the country(Arceo et al. 2001).
Analysis showed that the percentage loss of live
hard coral cover ranged from 3% to 22% across the
Verde Island Passage. The sites deemed to be highly26

vulnerable are those with high cover of the taxa listed
above. Sites with minimal losses are mostly dominatedby the coral Porites sp. As such, the municipalities
of Mabini and Tingloy have the highest vulnerability
with percentage loss of 11% to 22% and 14% to
21% respectively. The municipality of Lubang had anestimated loss 8% to 15% (Table 10).
Table 10. Percentage (%) cover and percentage loss of coral cover during
elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eight municipalities
surveyed in the Verde Island Passage.
		
Municipality
Sites
Batangas City
Calatagan
Looc
LubangMabini
Nasugbu
San Juan
Tingloy

Seagrass

4
8
6
6
3
2
8
3

% living hard coral
before			bleaching
low
high
12.9
24.2
29.4
24.8
33.8
29.3
19.6
19.2

12.2
23.5
28.0
22.8
29.9
27.6
19.0
16.5

11.6
22.3
26.8
21.2
26.4
26.8
18.5
15.1

Cover
loss (%)
6-10
3-8
5-9
8-15
11-22
6-9
3-6
14-21

Campbell et al. in 2006 studied the acutephotosynthetic response of 7 tropical species ofseagrasses to thermal stress and their ability torecover from this stress. As mentioned in this article,
temperatures rising above the tolerable limit of 35°C
inhibit plants' ability to produce carbon and bring about
increased respiration and breakdown of photosynthetic
enzymes. Although tropical species of seagrasses
may have adopted to high temperature as some of thechapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : sensitivity

meadows are more exposed to extreme temperatures
than meadows in temperate region, the photosynthetic
responses of most seagrass species (as shown in thisarticle)may likely suffer from short term or episodic
exposure to seawater temperature ranging from 40
to 45°C. Of the species studied by Campbell et al.
(2006), Cymodocea rotundata, C. serrulata, Halodule
uninervis, and Thalassia hemprichii were more tolerant
to thermal stress than other species. Using this study
to determine the sensitivity of seagrasses in areas thatsurround VIP to increasing SST, the four areas includedin this report may be least sensitive to increase in SST
due to the presence of species which are tolerant tothermal stress (Table 5), however, this projection may
further be refined when available data on seagrass
densities and zonation of species will be considered.
Of the two habitats assessed to be sensitive toincrease in temperature, corals are deemed moresensitive. Indeed globally, documentations of positive
sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have been
associated with mass coral bleaching, mortality(Hoegh-Guldberg 1999, Wilkinson 2004), and coraldisease outbreak (Bruno et al. 2007).

Storm impact
Coral

Analysis of the impacts of typhoons was based on the
study by Licuanan (unpublished report) in Pagbilao,
Quezon. Based on the monitoring of reefs in Pagbilao,
Quezon (just to the east of the VIP) estimated coral
cover losses during tropical storm Caloy was 12.5%
for sheltered sites and 37.5% for exposed sites. Theseestimates were then used to calculate the change of thepercentage coral cover during low to severe impacts
since no function relating storm strength and coverloss is available. Coral cover in Quezon is comparable
to the sites in the VIP, as are the reefs—which are
generally narrow fringing type. Both areas are within thePhilippines’ typhoon belt.
Table 11 presents the changes in percentage covers oflive hard corals when a typhoon similar to Caloy passedby the VIP. The municipalities of Mabini, Looc, andTable 11. Estimated percentage (%) cover of live hard corals during low tosevere impacts of typhoons.
		
Municipality
Sites
Batangas City
Calatagan
Looc
LubangMabini
Nasugbu
San Juan
Tingloy
All municipalities

4
8
6
6
3
2
8
3

beforeimpact% living hard corallowimpactsevereimpact

12.9
24.2
29.4
24.8
33.8
29.3
19.6
19.2
24.2

11.3
21.2
25.7
21.7
29.5
25.6
17.2
16.8
21.2

8.1
15.1
18.4
15.5
21.1
18.3
12.3
12.0
15.2

Nasugbu coral covers will remain in the fair category
if the effect of the storm is low. However, if the impact
is severe the status of the coral communities in thesemunicipalities will become poor. Five out of the eight themunicipalities’ surveyed have poor coral covers, thereby
increasing their vulnerability in the event of a severe
impact. Batangas City for example after severe impact
will have the lowest coral cover of 8.1% from 12.9%.
Note that Caloy was merely a tropical storm and not of
typhoon strength. Hence projected losses stated here
are considered conservative.

Seagrass

Increase in storm intensity and frequency will likely
cause changes in sediment morphology and dynamics
as well as salinity levels in seagrass meadows.
Sediment perturbation caused by strong typhoons
increases mortality of seagrasses due to uprooting,dislocation and burial of seagrass modules.
Of the tropical species, Enhalus acoroides is themost resistant to sediment perturbation, followed by
Halophila ovalis, Halodule uninervis, Cymodocea
serrulata, Thalassia hemprichii, Cymodocea rotundata,
and Syringodium isoetifolium (Duarte et al. 1997,
Terrados et al. 1998).
The four sites in the VIP with known seagrass
distribution are analyzed to have low sensitivity to
sediment perturbation caused by an increase in storm
intensity and frequency. The projection may be different
if analysis will include eutrophication caused by influxof freshwater from increased storm/rainfall frequency.
As observed in a lot of areas around the Philippines,
seagrasses are overgrown by algae when the flowof water is impeded or when there is an increase in
freshwater input.

Sea level rise impact
Coral

For the effects of sea level rise (SLR), area loss wascomputed using the following formula:% area loss(a´/sinA) - (a/sinA)a/sinAx 100

Wherein, a is the maximum depth of the reef community
before sea level rise; a´ is the maximum depth of thereef community after sea level rise; and, A is the angleof the reef slope. The angle of the reef slope wasmeasured as the elevation from the horizontal.
This formula, however, only applies to deep coral
communities along the reef slope. It is assumed thatin the event of sea level rise, the coral communities
located at the bottom of the reef slope will drown even27

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

if factors other than depth may control the lower extent
of reefs in particular sites (note that the entire study isbased on secondary data aggregated to the town level).
Coral reefs in the Philippines are generally shallower
around high islands such as Luzon and Mindanao
where water clarity is also lower mostly due to humanactivities on land. Exceptions are the sparsely populatedareas facing the Pacific Ocean.
Table 12 presents the estimated area following sea
level rise. Reef area loss for the VIP ranges from
0.38% to 7%. Note that these only apply to the deepest
portion of the reef slope. Specifically, Batangas City
and Nasugbu are highly vulnerable and have estimated
0.38% to 7% area loss. Whereas, the rest of themunicipalities surveyed are still vulnerable but havelower estimates of 0.25% to 4% area loss.
Table 12. Estimated area and diversity losses in the event of sea levelrise. Area loss estimates were based on the 5 cm (low) and 88 cm (high)sea level rise scenarios. Diversity loss was computed using the species
area curve.
Municipality% arealoss% diversity
loss

Batangas City
Calatagan
Looc
LubangMabini
Nasugbu
San Juan
Tingloy

0.38-7
0.25-40.25-40.25-40.25-40.38-7
0.25-40.25-40.60-0.80
0.60-0.70
0.60-0.70
0.60-0.70
0.60-0.70
0.60-0.80
0.60-0.70
0.60-0.70

Mangrove

Table 13 presents the vulnerability assessment ofmangrove areas along the VIP, the study is delimitedwith the availability of information on mangroves inthese areas. The 1 mm per year accretion rate observed
by Fujimoto et al. (1995) in Abatan River, Bohol wasused as there is no other available information on ratesof accretion in other parts of the country.
If sensitivity assessment will be based on the areal
extent of potential mangrove areas and the projected 1,
2- and 3-m rise in sea level (Siringan et al., this report),
almost all areas included in this report will be inundatedwith 1-m rise in sea level except for the municipalities of
San Juan, Batangas and Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro(Figure 36). For Batangas province, the mangrove
forests in San Juan will be the least vulnerable, followed
by Calatagan, Lian, Nasugbu. For Oriental Mindoro,
Calapan City will be the least vulnerable, followed by
Naujan, Pola, and Baco. However as stated earlier
most of these mangrove areas have been converted
to fishponds, resorts and other land uses and are nearcoastal communities, hence progression landward may
be hindered.
Balayan and Batangas City were seen as the mostvulnerable mangrove areas due to its small size interms of area covered and the presence of coastal
developments (fishponds, ports, industries) which may
be a barrier to the settlement and growth of mangroves.
The dikes of active and abandoned fishponds forexample, would impede the settlement of seeds andpropagules to these ponds and the normal hydrology
in the area that could promote growth of mangroves isalso altered. With all these barriers, even if there will be
a 1mm per year accretion rate, offsetting the impact ofsea level rise may be difficult unless some measures
are made to relieve the stress. An example would be
the restoration of abandoned fishponds into its natural
mangrove forest. A number of publications have alreadylaid down protocols and steps on restoration of ponds
into mangrove forests (i.e., Lewis and Marshall 1997,
Stevenson et al. 1999, Samson and Rollon 2008,
Primavera and Esteban 2008, Lewis 2009).

Table 13. Vulnerability of mangrove areas along the Verde Island Passage to projected sea level rise (SLR) and rate of accretion.

Municipality

Area (ha) to be inundated
given a 50-year SLR projection
1-m
2-m
3-m

Mangrovearea (ha)Dominant		
mangrove		
species1
Issues affecting mangrove area

NasugbuCalatagan

64.26
235.8

366.84369.72848.97765.45no data
244.98no data
Am, Ao, Ra, Rs, Nf

Balayan

165.06439.92761.8519.09

Am, Ra, Rs,Nf

LemeryBatangas101.8892.97

222.48137.52427.95307.26no data
23.64

no data

Lobo
Abra de Ilog
Calapan

20.88
34.56
69.66

36.36
77.58
160.6570.65
191.88511.92no datano data
332.0

no datano data
Af, Am, Ao, Sa

Naujan90.63

182.97446.58165.0

Af, Am, Am, Sa, Sc

LubangBoac426.5145.81

701.9192.52

1096.38199.98no datano datano datano datano dataconversion to fishponds and saltbeds; establishment ofresorts; presence of coastal communities; illegal cutting;existing tenurial instruments
conversion to fishponds; establishment of resorts; presenceof coastal communities; illegal cutting
no datadevelopment of industries and ports; presence of coastal
communities; conversion to fishponds
no datano datapresence of coastal communities; conversion to fishponds;
presence of piggeries; illegal cutting
presence of coastal communities; conversion to fishponds;
illegal cutting
no datano data

1 Af–Aegiceras floridum, Am–Avicennia marina, Ao–A. officinalis, Nf–Nypa fruticans, Ra–Rhizophora apiculata, Rm–R. mucronata, Rs–R. stylosa, Sa–Sonneratia alba, Sc–Sonneratia caseolaris
2 MV–most vulnerble; LV–least vulnerable
Source: McLeod,E. and R. V. Salm. 2006. Managing Mangroves for Resilience to Climate Change. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland. 64pp.

28

Degree of vulnerability
given 1mm/year
accretion rate2
no data
LVMV
no dataMV
no datano data
LV
LV
no datano datachapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : sensitivity

al., this report), mangrove areas
around the VIP are vulnerable to any
rise in sea level and other impacts
that may be brought about by thisfactor. Though some municipalities
have considerable large areas ofmangroves (i.e., Calatagan and
San Juan, Batangas; Calapan City,
Oriental Mindoro), most of theseareas are near coastal communities
which according to McLeod andSalm (2006) will be unable toprogress landward due to present
anthropogenic developments.

Figure 36. Effect of sea level rise on existing mangrove stands (based on
number of species present).

If the impacts of flooding due to sea level rise andthe presence of species which are least sensitive
to changing water quality, i.e., Avicennia marina,
Rhizophora stylosa (Alongi 2008), will be considered,most of the areas studied will have low sensitivity toflooding except for the municipalities of Puerto Galera
and Baco, Oriental Mindoro (Figure 37). Aside fromtheir greater ability to cope with changes in water
quality, the species of A. marina and R. stylosa havehigher rates of colonization potential.
Using the vulnerability assessment conditions
presented by McLeod and Salm (2006) in Table 9
and the projected sea level rise in VIP (Siringan etGilman et al. (2008), based on
their analysis of available evidence,
predicted that of all climate-relatedchanges, sea level rise will have great
impact on the remaining mangrove
ecosystems.

The projections presented here are conservative
because interactions between climate change impacts
are not considered. Increase in ocean temperature, sealevel rise, and more frequent typhoons acting together
are likely to have greater impacts than the sum of theirindividual impacts. As an example, sea level rise is likely
to liberate sediments from the inundated lands, anddrowned mangroves and seagrasses. These sediments,
in turn, will reduce water transparency (for one) further
aggravating the drowning of the lower reef slope. Even
more sediments will be liberated by strong waves andheavy rainfall generated by storms and typhoons. (Also
consider possible changes in rainfall patterns, this is a
gap area).

Figure 37. Effect of flooding due to sea level rise on existing mangrove stands(based on presence of flood resistant species).

Another reason why the projections
presented here should be considered
conservative is because they weremade with the implicit assumptionthat the impacts of human activities
are already incorporated in thebaseline data used and will remain atcurrent levels in the future. However,the coasts of the VIP host rapidly
growing populations and are subject
to increasing development. There isalready evidence from Lian, Batangas
and Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
of eutrophication resulting fromagriculture and urban sewage,
respectively (please cite reference).
This leads to algal blooms that will
have detrimental impact on the reef.
Also, the impact of garbage on VIP
waters has not been studied.
29

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Adaptive capacity
The adaptive capacity of an ecosystem would dependon their historical stress experience and their naturalability to withstand an impact. This was explored using
1) change detection analysis for 10 representative
sites in the Verde Island Passage, and 2) time series ofpelagic primary productivity.

Coastal habitat

Changes in coastal habitat were done using latest
available cloud-free Landsat images: the oldest
available (1991-92); after the 1998 massive bleaching(2001-02); and the latest available (2007/2009).
Each of the images were pre-processed foratmospheric correction using dark pixel subtraction andsubsequently land masked. A new set of spectral layers
were then created using the following band ratios: B1B2; B4-B3; B5-B4; B5-B2. This was done to eliminate/minimize the shadow effect of clouds and mountainshading. PCA images were then density sliced tocollect ROI's representative of the known habitats, i.e.,
Live Corals; Mixed Live with Dead Coral-Rock (DCARck); Algae overgrown DCA-Rck and Macrophyte
Bed; and Sand-Rubble) on the reef. Between 30 to 80
points per habitat were collected and used as training
pixels for supervised parallelepiped classification.
Generation of class statistics (area coverage per
microhabitat) was conducted in selected areas of VIP.
It should be noted, however, that the 2009 images
have the inherent problem of presence of stripping.
This results in an over/under estimate of total cover.
Correction was done by multiplying the % cover fromthe 2009 data multiplied by the more reliable 19911992 total coverage data. The same was done for the
2001-2002 images. Percent covers of live coral; mixed
live and dead coral/rock; algae dominated/macrophyte
beds; and sandy areas are highlighted in Table 14.

In Lubang Island and West Marinduque, the increase
in relative cover of dead coralline algae/rock from 2002
to 2009 could be the result of rubble aggregationand lithification. This type of substrate shift wasalso observed in Ngaderrak Reef in the Republic of
Palau (Ticzon et al. 2008), where rubble areas wereconsolidated and cemented by coralline algae and theencrusting sponge Clathria. However, this processof lithification in Lubang Island and West Marinduquecould have been limited in areas of low wave energy,
and minimal anthropogenic disturbance. This would
allow for loose rubble to aggregate and provide time
for biological processes to initiate the process of
cementation.
A different process is believed to be behind a similar
shift in dominant substrate type in the Naujan-Gloria
reefs. Characterized by strong wave action and steep
Table 14. Change in coastal habitat cover through time. Size of the circle
depicts extent of total coastal habitat cover in hectares (small = tens;
medium = more than a hundred; large = beyond 1000 hectares).
1991/1992

2002

2009

Lubang Island

Calatagan

East Calumpan

Batangas Bay West

Batangas East

Calatagan, followed by Puerto Galera-Naujan appear
stable in that changes to live coral and macrophyte
cover are minimal through the years, and this appears
consistent with limited monitoring data from a people’sorganization in Calatagan. The live coral cover of
Batangas East and West Marinduque also appears
stable. The most significant live coral cover loss canbe seen for the islands of Lubang and Maricaban.
Coral cover loss (1991/92 to 2002) and then recovery(2002 to 2009) was observed for Naujan-Gloria. In
several sites (Lubang Island, Naujan-Gloria, and West
Marinduque), shifts in dominant substrate type fromloose, to dead coralline/rocky substrate was observed.
Processes underlying such shifts are usually biologicaland physical in nature, operating in a predominantly
local scale.

Maricaban Island

West MarinduqueWawa-PaluanPto. Galera-Naujan

Naujan-Gloria

Blues–corals, maroons–mixed live/dead coral and rock, greens–algal covered substrate or macrophyte
beds, yellow–sandy areas.

30

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : adaptive capacity

slopes, erosion of loose substrate to the deeper
section of the shelf is seen as the primary reason in
the increase in percent cover of dead coralline/rocky
substrate in this section of the VIP, specifically from
Barangay Calima to Mag-Asawang Tubig, in Pola. The
erosion of loose substrate exposed the underlying bed
rock in some areas, contributing to the increased coverof DCA/Rock. However, the image also shows that theincrease in relative cover of DCA/Rock is due to coralmortality, which consistently occurred in this section of
the VIP from 1992 to 2009.

Pelagic primary productivity

In temperate regions, primary productivity has beenshown to be affected by changes in precipitation
pattern (Mallin et al. 1993), and changes in intensity ofstorm (Vinayachandran and Mathew 2003). Moreover,the northward shift of warm-water plankton, the retreatof cold-water plankton and the altered timing of springplankton production are already seen to affect higher
trophic levels (MCCIP 2008). The primary productivity
adaptive capacity in the VIP is explored by describing
the behavior of chlorophyll a signal through time using
SeaWIFs monthly dataset with a 9 km resolution(September 1998-March 2009).

Chlorophyll data within and around the VIP shows
the seasonality of the signal with higher signal during
the NE monsoon (Figure 38). This is because during
the northeast monsoon, winds through the passage
are funneled by the topography and coastline of thestrait resulting in very strong wind jets. Such wind jets
have been described as the driving force behind thedipole eddy that sometimes forms off Lubang Islandin the South China Sea (Pullen et al. 2008). The
strong northeast monsoon winds through the strait
may also enhance mixing resulting in the transportof nutrients towards the surface thus enhancing
productivity. This is supported by both satellite andship-based measurements showing elevated chlorophyll
concentrations in the area west of the Verde Island(PhilEx, unpub data).
Further investigation of the NE signal shows the higher
chlorophyll concentration in the western side of the
VIP (Figure 39). Long-term anomalies show all clusters
having negative chl anomaly in 1998, hence chl also
decreased in the VIP during the 1998 high thermal
anomaly that is responsible for mass coral bleaching(Figure 40). The 2 clusters within the VIP showed apositive chl anomaly during the following strong La Niña

Figure 38. SeaWiFs derived monthly surface chlorophyll in and around the VIP from September
1998-March 2009 clustered into 9 distinct classes. Signature time-series for each cluster are shown above.
Peaks pertain to elevated chlorophyll concentrations during the NE monsoon.
31

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines(1999-2001) with a 1 year lag between the eastern andwestern part. This could have implications in the near
future because PDO negative (in which we are in now)
have been associated with more La Niñas. During theprolonged weak El Niño from 2003-2006 no significant

anomalies were observed. In 2007-08, there was again
a positive chl anomaly during La Niña. Then, in 2008
just as the La Niña was weakening, there was a PDO
was shift from a warm phase to a cold phase and anegative chl anomaly was observed.

Figure 39. Average signal during the NE monsoon (Dec-Feb) in surfacechl (mg/m3). Values are standardized (normalized by mean and st dev) forcomparison (Dec 1997-Feb 2009).

Figure 40. Anomaly signals for the NE monsoon (Dec-Feb) insurface chl (mg/m3).

32

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : vulnerability

Vulnerability
Measuring vulnerability requires various hierarchicalscales of analyses and perspectives vis-à-vis theimpending impact on the socio-ecological system.
Measuring their eventual interactive effects would
require a nuanced perspective. By putting in a matrix
or geographic overlay of how each aspect interacts isuseful as a first order analyses. But putting into context
the different weights and importance factors of theclimate change impacts and their functionality would
have give varying impacts at a habitat level vis-à-vis
their species level concerns.

Consequence of this habitat sensitivity
to diversity
Coral diversity
The number of observed coral genera and reef fishabundance and species richness of each survey site permunicipality were collated for the analysis. The numberof observed coral genera per municipality was obtainedby pooling all the occurrences of coral genera permunicipality. Species richness of reef fish assemblages
per municipality was also obtained by pooling all theobserved reef fishes during these surveys. Reef fishabundances values were obtained by getting the total
number of individuals per municipality.
Based on the percentage loss of coral cover due toincrease in ocean temperature, coral diversity loss
was estimated to range from 0.7% to 1.6% acrossthe VIP using the species-area curve for Calamianes.
Specifically, diversity loss in the municipalities of
Mabini, Tingloy and Lubang ranged from 1.0% to
1.6%, 1.1% to 1.6% and 0.9 to 1.2% respectively(Table 15). The remaining municipalities of Batangas
City, Calatagan, Looc, Nasugbu and San Juan are
deemed to lose 0.7% to 0.9% of their coral diversity.
However, using Pratchett et al. (2008) as basis,diversity loss across the VIP ranged from 10% to
as high as 75%. The municipality of Nasugbu wasconsidered as highly vulnerable as it could lose 21%
Table 15. Percentage (%) loss of coral diversity during elevated sea
surface temperatures in the eight municipalities surveyed in the VIP.
		
Municipality
Sites
Batangas City
Calatagan
Looc
LubangMabini
Nasugbu
San Juan
Tingloy

4
8
6
6
3
2
8
3

#
genera
39
44
41
39
45
28
42
41

Diversity loss (%)
sp-area
Pratchettcurve
et al. 2008
0.8-0.9
0.7-0.9
0.8-0.9
0.9-1.2
1.0-1.6
0.8-0.9
0.7-0.8
1.1-1.6

15-49
18-57
15-54
21-59
13-53
21-75
17-57
10-41

to 75% of its coral diversity. This is attributed to the
low number of coral genera occurring in its reef areas.
Whereas, the municipality of Tingloy and Batangas City
were considered to be vulnerable since it could lose
10% to 41% and 15% to 49% of its coral diversity,
respectively. Other municipalities such as Calatagan,
Looc, Lubang, Mabini, and San Juan have estimatedlosses of 13% to 59%.
It should be noted however, that not all of the identified
coral genera (27) were present in each municipality.
As explained earlier, the lower estimates based on
Pratchett et al. (2008) was obtained by deducting the
top ten (10) genera from the total number of genera
present. Whereas, the higher estimates was obtainedby removing all of the genera that were indicated in thelist in Pratchett et al. 2008.
Table 16 presents the changes in the occurrence ofcoral genera when a storm similar to Caloy passed by
the VIP. Coral diversity loss estimates during tropicalstorm Caloy in Pagbilao, Quezon ranged from 7%
for low impact to 22% for severe impact. Diversity
is already low in the municipalities surveyed, thereby
making them even more vulnerable based on theestimates. The municipalities of Calatagan and Mabini
are the least to be affected during low impact as they
have the highest diversity among all the sites surveyed.
However, if the impact is severe, coral diversity in thesemunicipalities will be less ranging from 30 to 35 genera
only. The municipality of Nasugbu is deemed to be themost vulnerable of all the sites regardless of low orsevere impact. Losses in coral genera will change from28 to 21.8% during severe impact. This is attributed
to the very low occurrences of coral genera in themunicipality.
Following sea level rise and assuming that the coral
distribution and diversity are even for the entire reefarea, diversity loss obtained using the species area
curve estimated 0.60% to 0.80% loss. Specifically,
Batangas City and Nasugbu are highly vulnerable with
Table 16. Estimated percentage (%) of diversity of live hard corals during
low to severe impacts of typhoons.
		
Municipality
Sites
Batangas City
Calatagan
Looc
LubangMabini
Nasugbu
San Juan
Tingloy
All municipalities

4
8
6
6
3
2
8
3

BeforeimpactLow
impactSevereimpact

39
44
41
39
45
28
42
41
63

36.3
40.9
38.1
36.3
41.9
26.0
39.1
38.1
58.6

30.4
34.3
32.0
30.4
35.1
21.8
32.8
32.0
49.1

33

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

0.60% to 0.80% diversity loss while the rest of themunicipalities surveyed have relatively lower estimatesof 0.60% to 0.70% diversity loss.

Reef fish diversity

Recent studies of Wilkinson (2000a and 2000b) haveshown that climate-induced coral bleaching has had
major effects on the biological and physical structureof coral reef habitats. Numerous studies (e.g., Shibuno
et al. 1999, McClanahan et al. 2002a, Munday 2004a,
Sano 2004, Graham et al. 2006, Pratchett et al. 2006)
have documented consequent changes in the species
composition and abundance of associated reef fish
assemblages. Changes in the topographic complexityand loss of coral cover affect reef fishes by reducing
viable coral growths that provide shelter and protection
and food source which ultimately affect settlement,
recruitment and overall biological diversity.
The municipality of Mabini had the highest number ofreef fishes observed within the belt transects with 151
species (Table 18). Mabini is closely followed by themunicipalities of Lubang, Tingloy and Batangas City
with 147, 142, and 139 species, respectively. The
municipalities of Looc and Nasugbu, despite having
higher percentages of live hard coral cover, only
harbored 87 and 44 reef fish species, respectively.
San Juan and Calatagan fell in the middle with 100
and 113 species. Lubang municipality had the highest
estimated reef fish abundance with more than 2,000
reef fish individuals, whereas the municipality of
Nasugbu had the lowest reef fish abundance with only
171 individuals. The municipality of Looc despite having
less than a hundred reef fish species still had morethan 1000 reef fish individuals. Mabini municipality on
the other hand, only had more than 1,200 individuals
despite having the highest species richness. The
remaining municipalities, Batangas City, Calatagan, San
Juan, and Tingloy had reef fish abundances of morethan 1,400 individuals. The Fish Visual Census (FVC)
method was used to assess the reef fish assemblages.
Reef fish species richness was accounted by pooling
all the observed species in the belt transects during thesurveys. Fish abundance was estimated by pooling total
fish abundance (number of individuals/1000m2) per
survey site and getting their means.
Effects on the reef fish abundance and diversity were
determined by calculating the percentage lossesof vulnerable species that Pratchett et al. (2008)
identified. Table 17 presents the vulnerable reef fish
species adapted from Pratchett et al. (2008) found in
the Verde Island Passage.
Losses in reef fish abundances were estimated bydeducting the abundances of the vulnerable species
from the total reef fish abundance per municipality.
34

Similarly, reef fish diversity loss per municipality wascomputed by subtracting the total number of vulnerable
species to the total number of species present in eachmunicipality.
A total of 16 species of reef fishes listed in Pratchettet al. (2008) was observed in the VIP. Percentage lossof reef fish species ranged from 9% to 14% (Table
18). The municipality of Nasugbu was deemed to havethe highest vulnerability as it could lose 16% of the
44 observed fish species, followed by Looc, Caltagan,
and San Juan with estimated losses of 14%, 12%, and
10% respectively. The municipalities of Batangas City,
Lubang, Mabini, and Tingloy had the lowest estimatedloss of 9%. The total number of species observed, only
included reef fish species observed during the transect
surveys.
The estimated percentage losses of reef fish diversity
and abundance is relatively high. However, theseestimates are still considered to be conservative as
the compounded impacts of the other climate change
impacts and human activities are still not accountedfor. Although the effects of loss of coral cover can be
minimal and limited to highly-dependent fishes (e.g.,corallivores), changes in topographic complexity canTable 17. Reef fish species observed in the Verde Island Passage thatare affected by coral bleaching due to their association and dependence
on coral communities.
FamilyAcanthuridae
Chaetodontidae
Chaetodontidae
Chaetodontidae
Chaetodontidae
LabridaeLabridaeLabridaePomacentridae
Pomacentridae
Pomacentridae
Pomacentridae
Pomacentridae
Pomacentridae
Pomacentridae
Siganidae

Species

HabitsCtenochaetus striatus
Chaetodon baronessa
Chaetodon lunulatus
Chaetodon melannotus
Chaetodon trifascialis
Gomphosus varius
Halichoeres melanurus
Labrichthys unilineatus
Amblyglyphidodon curacao
Chrysiptera rollandi
Neoglyphidodon melas
Plectroglyphidodon lacrymatus
Pomacentrus lepidogenys
Pomacentrus moluccensis
Pomacentrus vaiuli
Siganus spinus

herbivores
corallivore
corallivore
corallivore
corallivore
benthic carnivore
otherscorallivore
omnivores
otherscorallivore
herbivores
coral dweller
coral dweller
othersherbivores

Source: adapted from Pratchett et al. 2008.

Table 18. Percentage (%) loss of associated reef fish species andabundance in the event of coral bleaching.

Municipality Sites
Batangas City
Calatagan
Looc
LubangMabini
Nasugbu
San Juan
Tingloy

4
8
6
6
4
2
8
3

Species richness# species
observed lost
loss
139
113
87
147
151
44
100
142

13
13
12
13
14
7
10
13

9
12
14
9
9
16
10
9

Abundance
before

after

%
loss

1660
1874
1086
2227
1215
171
1410
1465

1205
1377
830
1658
652
133
1247
672

27
27
24
26
46
22
12
54

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : vulnerability

cause more wide-spread detrimental impacts. The
increase in frequencies and intensities of storms andtyphoons for example, can cause more devastating
effects on habitat complexity. Nevertheless, theestimates made are still significant as it provides us
lower-range projected losses in the VIP.

Consequence of this habitat sensitivity
to fisheries
To achieve the objectives of the vulnerability
analyses it is necessary to determine the attributesof fisheries ecosystem, their ecosystem features andconnectedness to the various habitats and resources
and how the ecological and social economic systems
interact. This component emphasizes on the ecologicalinteractions and only introduces its links to thesocial systems as these social linkages and adaptive
capacities are discussed by another group.
This approach (Table 19) first identifies and thenquantifies the types of gear present and used in
six municipality/city sites in the VIP, namely Mabini(Batangas), Verde Is. (Batangas City), Puerto Galera(Oriental Mindoro), Lubang (Occidental Mindoro),
Looc (Occ. Mindoro), and Paluan (Occ. Mindoro).
Where available, information on fisher population, typesof fishing gears used (mainly artisanal and under themunicipal fisheries category), number of fishers pergear type, catch rate, catch composition, seasonality ofgear use, and fishing areas of the gears were collected.

Threat analyses

Standardizing semi-quantitative scores of humaninduced threats vis-à-vis fisheries and resource
exploitation and other exacerbating impacts.
The vulnerability assessment utilizes the information
gathered from the literature to identify the fisheries
resources (target species, fishery stocks) that will bemost affected (i.e., vulnerable vis-á-vis the prospective
Table 19. Focus of the fisheries vulnerability assessment in the VerdeIsland Passage.
Target species and life history characterstics
Spratelloides (dulong): post-larval juveniles of this pelagic species are heavity harvested
at nearshore areas including lagoons at known season This fishery is important in Mabini
and adjacent areas.
Groupers: juveniles of some of these reef associated fish occur at mangroves andestuaries (i.e., ontogenetic habitat movement) at known season. Important in the live fish
food fishery in Looc and Lubang.
Milkfish: juveniles of this species occur at estuaries. Important in the milkfish fry fishery in
Occidental Mindoro.
Aquarium fish: these fish are highly associated with coral reefs. Important in theaquarium fishery in Verde Island and Occidental Mindoro.
Gear quantity, distribution, and dependence on habitats
Fishing grounds of varying habitat types with associated gears. High gear effort at more
habitat types render the areas more sensitive and therefore vulnerable to climate change.
Lubang showed the most number of gears and gear types variably distributed at different
habitat types.

climate impacts) by extreme changes in the climate.
Emphasis was placed upon knowledge of the criticallife stages (e.g., larvae, juveniles, reproductive stages)of the species as well as some information on theircatch rates and habitat conditions. It has been
acknowledged that changes in the climate (e.g., risingsea surface temperature, increase in storm frequency,
storm surges) would possibly introduce greatest impact
upon larval, juvenile and reproductive stages of target
species affecting distributional patterns (e.g., Munday
et al. 2008). Target species may also be influenced bychanges in the climate indirectly through habitat loss
and fragmentation (e.g., coral loss through bleaching
events, inundation of mangroves areas) affecting their
recruitment, survivorship and abundance (Pratchet etal. 2008). The associated habitats of the target species
were determined as this will allow further examinationof the conditions of these habitats harboring thecritical life stages. The presence of habitat types(e.g., seagrass beds, mangroves) that enhances thegrowth and survivorship and what drives the population
dynamics of the species potentially will serve as agauge or index as what would be vulnerable to climatechange (e.g., increase in sea surface temperature, sealevel rise).
Catch composition and dominant catches of thegears allows identification of the species targeted in
the fisheries. In addition, the distribution of the target
species can be assessed by determining the types ofgear used in the area and the associated habitats of thespecies and gears. The gear types of the target species
and their level of fishing effort will be concurrently
assessed to incorporate the exacerbating effects of
exploitation upon “sensitive” species and habitats.
The vulnerability assessment also takes into accountthe dependence of the gears and therefore the fishers
upon specific “sensitive” habitats in the fisheries. The
gear types, their density, and their level of effort will beutilized to explore the vulnerabilities of the fisheries.
This also initiates the interaction with or the link tosocio-economic aspects of the assessment particularly
highlighting the effects upon human well-being whereas
the identified fishing areas of the gears will link to thehabitat and biodiversity aspects of the assessment.
Vulnerabilities were first explored for the target species/
taxa of each site by primarily considering the range ofassociated habitat types throughout the life cycle ofthe species that would be at risk to climate change
impacts. Table 20 shows the target species/taxa of thevarious gear types of the 6 sites and their associatedhabitat types. Under this assessment, Lubang and
Looc fisheries appear both to be more vulnerable
compared to any other site. This was mainly due tothe several target species and/or taxa from a range ofgear types. Many of the target species showed varying
35

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Table 20. Vulnerability assessment of the fisheries, based on the number of habitat types of the target species/taxa (including all types of habitat
throughout the life cycle). Oceanographic and remote sensing (RS) information on the habitat attributes will result in functional weighting of the habitatscores vis-à-vis their importance to the vulnerability values.
Caught by		
gear typereefSpecies/taxa
Mabini, Batangas
dulong (Spratelloides)
dilis (Engraulis)
alumahan (Rastrelliger)tambakol (Katsuwonus)
galunggong (Decapterus)

Habitat typesand/		beach mangrove
seagrass√√

estuarine
creeks/rivers

Vulnerability
index

3
3
1
1
2

mediummediumlow
low
low to medium

lambat pante (gill net)
hayhay (surface long line)

√

√
√
√
√
√

hayhay (surface long line)
lambat pante (gill net)

√

√

2

low to medium

kawil (hook and line), pana(spear)

√
√
√
√
√

√
√
√
√
√
√

4
2
2
2
1
2

medium to highlow to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low
low to medium
low to medium

√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√

√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√

2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2

low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium

√

√

2

pana (spear)

√
√

√
√
√
√

1
1
2
2

low to medium
low
low
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium

basnig (bag net)
kawil (hook and line)

√

√

2

low to medium

dilis (Stolephorus)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo)
pagulpol (Cypselurus)
tangigue (Makaira)gulyasan (tuna)basnig (bag net), lambat(gill net)

√
√

√
√
√
√
√

4
2
1
1
1

medium to highlow to medium
low
low
low

maya-maya (Lutjanus)
lapu-lapu (groupers)
labahita (Naso), rabbitfish
angelfish (Pomacanthus)
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus)
damselfish (Chromis)
anthiinid (Anthias)
bangus fry (Chanos chanos)kawil (hook and line), bubo
(trap), pana (spear), lambat(gill net)√

hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
scoop nets

√
√
√
√
√

√
√
√
√
√

4
5
4
2
2
2
2
4

medium to highhighmedium to highlow to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
medium to highmediumbasnig (bag net), lambat
pandilis (anchovies), gillnets
kawil (hook and line)
kawil (hook and line), pana(spear)hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
scoop nets

√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√

√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√
√

4
2
2
2
5
3
2
2
2
2
4

medium to highlow to medium
low to medium
low to medium
highmediumlow to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
medium to highmediumbasnig (bag net), lambat
pandulong (gill net), scissor net

matambaka (Selar)
lapu-lapu (groupers)
maya-maya (Lutjanus)
kanoping (Lethrinus)
bisugo (nemipterids)
tulingan (Auxis)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo)
Verde Island, Batangas City
angelfish (Pomacanthus)
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus)
damselfish (Chromis)
anthiinid (Anthias)
lion fish (Pterois)
lapu-lapu (groupers)
manites (Upeneus)
galunggong (Decapterus)
mulmol (Scarus)
labahita (Naso)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo)
Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
galunggong (Decapterus)
tulingan (Auxis)
alumahan (Rastrelliger)
labahita (Naso)
loro, mulmol (Scarus)
Lubang, Occidental Mindoro
galunggong (Decapterus)

Looc, Occidental Mindoro
dilis (Stolephorus)
talakitok (Carangoides)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo)
matambaka (Selar)
lapu-lapu (live groupers)
maya-maya (Lutjanus)angelfish (Pomacanthus)
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus)
damselfish (Chromis)
anthiinid (Anthias)
bangus fry (Chanos chanos)

36

√
√

pelagic

Numberof habitat
types

lambat pante (gill net)

hayhay (surface long line)
pamanos (squid jig)hand nets (barriernet)kawil (hook and line)
hayhay (long line)
pana (spear)
pamanos (squid jig)lambat pante (gill net)
kawil (hook and line)

possiblepossiblepossiblepossible√kawil (hook and line)√√

pante (gill net)
lambat (gill net)
lambat (gill net), kawil(hook and line)
possiblepossiblepossible√possible√√√possiblepossible√√possiblepossible√chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : vulnerability

Table 20. (continued)

Species/taxa
Paluan, Occidental Mindoro
angelfish (Pomacanthus)
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus)
damselfish (Chromis)
anthiinid (Anthias)
galunggong (Decapterus)
tulingan (Auxis)
dilis (Stolephorus)
alamang (Acetes)
pagulpol (Cypselurus)
lapu-lapu (groupers)
maya-maya (snappers)
labahita (Naso)

Caught by		
gear type
reef
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
basnig (bag net), kawil(hook and line)

Habitat typesand/		beach mangrove
seagrass

√
√
√
√
√
√

√

Numberof habitat
types

Vulnerability
index

√
√

2
2
2
2
2
1
3
2
1

low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
lowmediumlow to medium
medium√5

highpelagic
√
√
√
√

√
√

lambat (gill net)
kawil (hook and line), pana(spear), bubo (trapestuarine
creeks/rivers

possiblepossiblepossible√

low to medium

associated habitat types such as pelagic anchovies,
herrings and sardines that are known to also occur
at estuaries. These sites also had fishers harvesting
milkfish fry at estuaries and several grouper species
with juveniles occurring at mangroves and seagrasses.
Several site-attached and coral dependent reef fishes
were also targeted for the aquarium fishery in Lubang,
Looc, Paluan, and Verde. The types of life history trait
renders these organisms susceptible to large changes
in the patterns of climate (e.g., sea surface temperature
anomalies, sea level rise, more frequent and more
intensified storms).

Qualitative descriptions and overall
assessment

The Verde Island Passage is found at the core ofhighest marine biodiversity and with huge humanpopulations dependent upon the fisheries resources.
Climate-related impacts therefore would havetremendous effects upon the coastal fisheries(subsistence or large-scale), livelihood, and economic
development in the VIP. These impacts include increase
in sea surface temperature (SST), sea level rise,increase in frequency and intensity of storms, changes
in the variability of rainfall, and ocean acidification. As
an example, increase in SST will result in loss in coral
cover through bleaching events and in the long term
will affect the habitat complexity of reefs that in turn will
influence the settlement, recruitment, and survivorshipof coral-dependent species. This consequently will
reduce abundance and species diversity affecting thereef fish community structure. Warming will also modify
behavior, timing of reproduction, reproductive output,
larval period, survivorship of recruits and therefore
recruitment failure, among others. For other nearshore
habitats such as mangroves and seagrasses, seedling
production, habitat fragmentation, decrease species
diversity of associated organisms, and therefore affecthigh value fisheries associated to them. In addition,
the exacerbating effects of anthropogenic factors
such as overfishing, pollution, habitat modification,

infrastructure, etc. are also seen to accelerate theimpacts.
Fishing has been acknowledged to potentiallyexacerbate the effects of climate change upon thetarget species (Brander 2007). The varying gear types
and high fishing effort in Mabini and Lubang (Table20) would enhance the threats more than can beobserved in the other sites except that effort data were
not available for Looc and Paluan (Table 21). Sometarget species were harvested by more than one gear
type which was observed in anchovies and herrings in
Mabini and coral reef fishes (e.g., groupers) in Lubang
and, additionally, with high fisher populations.
In some cases, overlapping of gears occur increasing
competition between fishers amidst declining stocks
in specific habitats. Table 22 shows the number ofgears used on each habitat type in the 6 sites. Lubang
showed the most number of gears in several habitat
types suggesting high degree of dependence by fishers
on the habitats for fisheries and therefore demonstrated
immense potential climate change impacts. This could
eventually displace a number of fishers and therefore
affect economic conditions. Mabini followed closely
whereas Verde and Puerto Galera were in the middle
range. Lack of data did not permit assessment in
Looc and Paluan although it appears that becauseof its proximity to Lubang, Looc likely show similar
conditions. The level of fishing effort of the gear types
further demonstrate the exacerbating effects thus thevulnerability of the fisheries in Lubang.
Table 23 shows the potential impacts of the fisheries inthe VIP by climate change impacts. In an increasing sea
surface temperature, most of the target species will beaffected through disruption in timing of reproduction,
decreased reproductive output, shorter larval duration,
lower recruit survivorship, and recruitment failure
leading to changes in fisheries productivity. Impact on
critical habitats such as coral reefs, seagrasses, and37

Table 21. Vulnerability assessment of the fisheries based on the number of gear types (and their level of fishing effort) of the target species/taxa.
Caught by		
gear type		

Species/taxa
Mabini, Batangas
dulong (Spratelloides)
dilis (Engraulis)
alumahan (Rastrelliger)tambakol (Katsuwonus)
galunggong (Decapterus)
matambaka (Selar)
lapu-lapu (groupers)
maya-maya (Lutjanus)
kanoping (Lethrinus)
bisugo (nemipterids)
tulingan (Auxis)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo)
Verde Island, Batangas City
angelfish (Pomacanthus)
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus)
damselfish (Chromis)
anthiinid (Anthias)
lion fish (Pterois)
lapu-lapu (groupers)
manites (Upeneus)
galunggong (Decapterus)
alumahan (Rastrelliger)
dalagang bukid (Caesio)
mulmol (Scarus)
labahita (Naso)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo)
Puerto Galera, Oriental Mindoro
galunggong (Decapterus)
tulingan (Auxis)
alumahan (Rastrelliger)
labahita (Naso)
loro, mulmol (Scarus)

Level offishing effort		

Vulnerability
index

3 (high)
3 (high)
1 (low)
1 (low)
2 (medium)mediummediummediummediummediummedium to highmedium to highlow to medium
low to medium
medium2 (medium)mediummedium1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)

medium to highmedium to highmedium to highmedium to highmediummediummediummediummediummediumlow to medium
low to medium
mediumhayhay (long line)

1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)

high
high
high
high
high
mediummediummediummediummediummediummediummediumlow to medium
low to medium
low to medium

lambat (gill net)

1 (low)

low to medium

low to medium

1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)

low to medium
low to medium
low to medium

low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium

basnig (bag net), lambat
pandulong (gill net), scissor net
lambat pante (gill net)
lambat pante (gill net)
hayhay (surface long line)
hayhay (surface long line)
lambat pante (gill net)
kawil (hook and line), pana(spear)hayhay (surface long line)
pamanos (squid jig)hand nets (barrier net)

kawil (hook and line)

pana (spear)
pamanos (squid jig)lambat pante (gill net)
kawil (hook and line)

Number of		gear types			

medium2 (medium)low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium

1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)
1 (low)

mediumbasnig (bag net)
kawil (hook and line)

2 (medium)medium to highmediumdilis (Stolephorus)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo)
pagulpol (Cypselurus)
tangigue (Makaira)gulyasan (tuna)basnig (bag net), lambat(gill net)
pante (gill net)
lambat (gill net)
lambat (gill net), kawil(hook and line)

2 (medium)medium to high1 (low)
1 (low)
2 (medium)mediummediummedium to highmedium to highmediumlow to medium
low to medium
mediummaya-maya (Lutjanus)
lapu-lapu (groupers)
labahita (Naso), rabbitfish
angelfish (Pomacanthus)
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus)
damselfish (Chromis)
anthiinid (Anthias)
bangus fry (Chanos chanos)kawil (hook and line), bubo
(trap), pana (spear), lambat(gill net)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
scoop nets

1 (low)
3 (high)
3 (high)highLooc, Occidental Mindoro
dilis (Stolephorus)
talakitok (Carangoides)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo)
matambaka (Selar)
lapu-lapu (live groupers)
maya-maya (Lutjanus)angelfish (Pomacanthus)
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus)
damselfish (Chromis)
anthiinid (Anthias)
bangus fry (Chanos chanos)basnig (bag net), lambat
pandilis (anchovies), gillnets
kawil (hook and line)
kawil (hook and line), pana(spear)hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
hand nets (w/ compressor)
scoop nets

38

pana (spear)

1 (low)

mediummediummediummediummediummediummediumhighhigh
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
low to medium
medium3 (high)

2 (medium)1 (low)

1 (low)

no data

Lubang, Occidental Mindoro
galunggong (Decapterus)

kawil (hook and line)?

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : vulnerability

Table 22. Vulnerability assessment of the fisheries based on number of gear types per habitat type.

Caught by		
gear type
reefbasnig (bag net), lambat
pandulong (gill net), scissor net
lambat pante (gill net)
lambat pante (gill net)
hayhay (surface long line)
hayhay (surface long line)
lambat pante (gill net)
kawil (hook and line), pana (spear)
hayhay (surface long line)
pamanos (squid jig)

Verde Island, Batangas City
angelfish (Pomacanthus)
butterflyfish (Chaetodontus)
damselfish (Chromis)
anthiinid (Anthias)
lion fish (Pterois)
lapu-lapu (groupers)
manites (Upeneus)
galunggong (Decapterus)
alumahan (Rastrelliger)
dalagang bukid (Caesio)
mulmol (Scarus)
labahita (Naso)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo)
No. of gears per habitat
Level of fishing effort

1
4
1

2
1
1
1
4 (high)mediumto highhand nets (barrier net)

kawil (hook and line)
hayhay (long line)
lambat (gill net)

Vulnerability
index

pelagic

medium to highMabini, Batangas
dulong (Spratelloides)
dilis (Engraulis)
alumahan (Rastrelliger)tambakol (Katsuwonus)
galunggong (Decapterus)
matambaka (Selar)
lapu-lapu (groupers)
maya-maya (Lutjanus)
kanoping (Lethrinus)
bisugo (nemipterids)
tulingan (Auxis)
pusit (Sepioteuthis, Loligo)
No. of gears per habitat
Level of fishing effort

estuarine
creeks/rivers

1 (low)low

1
1

1 (low)low

1 (low)
low tomedium1
5 (high)mediumto high

2 (medium)medium

1
1
1
1
1
1

1
1

6 (high)medium2 (medium)mediummediumSpecies/taxa

Habitat typesand/		beach mangrove
seagrasspana (spear)
pamanos (squid jig)

Table 23. Matrix of prospective responses to climate change impacts highlighting the interacting effects between habitats and fisheries.
Responses
Climate					change impact
seagrassseaweeds
reef fish
mangrovesincreased sea
surfacetemperature

can be approachedsimilar to corals/diversityof associated organisms;
associated fishereies, e.g.,siganids, and high value
invertebrate fisheries,
reduced catch in some
finfish but may have ashift to detritivores andomnivores

phenologicalcharacteristic disrupted;
change in overall
community structure;slower growth and lower
diversity; low fecundity of
speciessea level riseshallow species will bemost sensitive to change
and will be vulnerable;
species found growing on
the slopes can adjust tochanging depth

can be well adapted tochanges in sea levels(community level/change
in community structure)

increase storm
intensity andfrequency• storm paths/
tracks• storm surge

disrupt recruitment eventsof associated faunal
species; decreases
survivorshipchange in substratecomposition leading
to changes in algal
community structure;
burial and scouring

rainfall• changes insalinity• increased
sedimentation

change in water quality
will have changes in lightrequirements/availability

ocean
acidification

will increase CO2;
may favor seagrass
photosynthesis but may
not happen if the system
is already distressed

reproductive output,
timing, survivorship ofrecruits; recruitment lag/failure; shorter larval
duration; abundance ofcoral dependent species
will be reduced following
coral bleaching eventsand decreased structuralcomplexity

decreased seedling
production, survivorshipand recruitment; lower
recruitment regeneration;
phenologicalcharacteristics disrupted;
associated fisheries
will be reduced fortemperature dependent
reproductive output

estuaries/
creeks/rivers
see mangroves andassociated fisheries
especially in relation toontogenetic habitats
shifts and how adjacent
habitats can be seen in
exacerbated/synergistic
negative effects,
overfishing, and habitat
fragmentation/loss

pelagic
shorter larval duration;
decreases survivorshipdue to low foodavailability; alter
reproductive periodicity
and eventual recruitment
survivorship leadingchanges in fisheries
productivity

groupers
shorter larval duration;enhanced recruitment
variability; recruitment
will be affected following
decreased structuralcomplexity via coralbleaching ?;reproductive output andtiming of reproduction will
be affected, especiallyspawning aggregations

inundation of mangroves
and associated species(fauna); reduce conditions
for settlement availability
as nursery grounds forother species; change insedimentation dynamics;
substrate erosion
topographic complexity/
habitat refuge(composition, biomass,density); this can leadto reduced fisheries
productivity

disrupt recruitment eventsof associated faunal
species (e.g., groupers,
snappers, jacks);
decreases survivorshipaffect recruitment due toloss of habitat availability
for settlement (e.g.,decresed structuralcomplexity)

decreases survivorshipof recently recruitedassociated faunal species(e.g., groupers, snappers,
sprats, anchovies, bangus
fry)propagules dislodged
prematurely; uprootingof mature trees along
shoreline
only a few species are
stenohalines species thatcan survive
burial and mortality

can lead to habitat
modification and reduce
diversity and abundance;
this reduces fisheries
production

have salinity regulatory
function

affect recruitmentof associated faunal
species; decreases theirsurvivorship

nutrient increases maylead to blooms

change in sedimentation
dynamics

39

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippinesmangroves will affect the aforementioned attributesof the associated fauna which include high value
target species (e.g., siganids, groupers, snappers).
For sea level rise, some habitats such as mangroves
will be inundated that will reduce available areas forrecruitment of associated fauna that have fisheries
value. In coral reefs, species on shallower parts (e.g.,reef flats) will be affected compared to those on reefslopes. Increase in frequency and intensity of storms
can greatly affect recruitment of target species throughreduction of suitable sites for recruitment and reduction
in abundance and species diversity due to habitat loss
and decreased habitat complexity. Increase rainfall may
result in over supply of nutrients from the land and maytrigger algal blooms or will lead to hypoxic conditions
that may affect existing aquaculture or mariculture.
The fisheries that are most vulnerable are those
involving fishes that need different habitats throughout
their life stages. For example, Mabini and Lubang/Looc
have grouper and snapper fisheries. These fishes makeuse of estuaries, mangroves, seagrasses, corals, andthe pelagic realm during the different stages in their life.

40

Vulnerable areas vs. ecologically criticalor sensitive areas
Aside from vulnerable areas which are seen in thecontext of vulnerability relative to the aspect of climatechange, it is crucial to determine ecologically criticalor sensitive areas (e.g., coral reefs, seagrasses, andmangrove areas) and other ecological functions (e.g.,turtle nesting beaches, nursery and feeding areas ofimportant fisheries and/or threatened species). This isimportant in complying with Philippine environmental
laws as human activities (or at a scale of development
such as over a 5 hectare area or a building higher
than 4 floors) that are threatening these critical
habitats shall require a mandatory full Environmental
Impact Assessment (EIA). Considering that there areuncertainties and data gaps in predicting more specificvulnerabilities, this is another precautionary step tohighlight the complementarity of vulnerability andadaptation insights.

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : recommendations

Recommendations
Apart from the threats of global climate change, themarine resources in the Verde Island Passage are
already in a tremendous amount of stress due tovarious human pressures. The VIP is a major fishingground. Over-fishing and use of destructive fishingmethods disrupts the normal functions of the coral
reef ecosystem. They reduce populations of key reeforganisms either by direct extraction of coral andreef fish species or by destruction of corals during
fishing (Licuanan and Gomez 2000, Wilkinson 2004,
Deocadez et al. 2009). The passage is also a majornavigational and shipping lane, and is constantly
under threat by oil spills and strandings. Similarly, it isalso surrounded by various industries such as ports,
oil refineries etc., which pollutes, increases nutrient
influx and sedimentation in reef areas. Pollution,
sedimentation, and nutrients affect the survival of coral
communities either by smothering corals and preventing
coral recruitment (McClanahan and Obura 1997)
or by promoting growth of macro-algae and otherinvertebrates (McCook 1999, Nugues and Roberts2003). Other pressures impacting the coral reefs in the
VIP is tourism, mining, coastal settlement, and otherland-based activities.
Adaptation mechanisms would require that the present
CRM programs be more tightly integrated throughestablishing knowledge based communities. These
would involve multiple stakeholders working together
and the incipient MPA network in the VIP would be agood starting point. The various CRM working groups
would also need to engage with each other throughinter-LGU arrangement joint fisheries law enforcement
teams (FLET) and bay management councils or VIPlevel alliances can be formed.
Improving management through good CRM governanceprocesses where climate adaptation systems are
mainstreamed is imperative. The fisheries ecosystemapproach to management will need to be put in place
as natural links to the present conservation efforts withthe tourism industry. Reduction of prevailing threatssuch as illegal and destructive fishing, emerging
pollution, and habitat degradation from urban andindustrial development must also be addressed.
Environmental concerns will not only marginalize fishers
and their fishing grounds, exacerbate the impending
climate change impacts but will jeopardize the future of
our next generations.
Since the VIP is the area where the State of the Coast
has been piloted in the province of Batangas, theopportunity to scale up these efforts and at the same
integrate within an ICM approach is imperative. As

mentioned earlier the research and development andextension arena would need to involve a monitoringand evaluation, response and feedback program thatmainstreams climate change. Linking with the ICE
CREAM program would be an immediate next step
together with developing a cadre of local expertise fromthe various higher education institutions, would be an
opportunity not to miss. Highly qualified expertise suchthose in the De La Salle University Brother Shields
Marine Lab are available and are part of the ICE
CREAM program.

Research and monitoring imperatives
There are considerable gaps in the fisheries profilingand the related targeted research and monitoring
concerns. The priority interactive concerns of theecological and social systems are necessary to be
integrated into an adaptation plan with its adaptive
management approach.
• Incorporating an adaptive management approach
would mean that the overall management framework
is integrated into an overarching context andgovernance process that will be able to provide
timely interventions with the appropriate monitoringand evaluation plan.
• Fisheries profiling using the FISH BE (Fisheries
and Bio-economic model) framework approach tolink effort regulation, MPA, and pollution abatement,
among others.
• Climate change enhanced research on target life
history studies and monitoring to provide inputs toan ecosystem approach to fisheries management
and evaluate exacerbating effects e.g., collaborate
with the Department of Science and Technology(DOST) funded ICE CREAM (Integrated Coastal
Enhancement: Coastal Research, Evaluation and
Adaptive Management) program. An opportunity
whereby the MPA network provides social network
insights that also derives biophysical informationfrom an integrated monitoring of governance,
ecological and social and economic indicators.
• Determine Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
priority areas which highlights mitigating impacts
from coastal and marine development activities(e.g., foreshore and navigation) so as to determine
an overall integrated coastal management approachto the VIP incorporating climate change andthreatened species concerns. This should have aclose link with the social and economic research
imperatives, e.g., reducing threats from unplanneddevelopment trends and improving compliancethrough market and non-market based incentives.
41

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines• Results should be reported regularly, e.g., no longer
than for every relevant period such as a monsoon,or as needed as when there is an impending
catastrophic or disaster event. Also, the state of
the coasts mandates required in EO 533 is anothervenue for reporting and feedback and to engage
in adjustments and mainstreaming lessons learned
into policies, ordinances, and action plans.
• Changes in shoreline positions can now be easily
established due to the availability of satellite
images. However, what the time series of images
can define are only snapshots of changes.
Information on possible magnitude of erosion due
to a single or series of storms or the pace of asubsequent recovery can only be captured throughmonitoring and partly through systematic interviewsof long-time coastal residents. The high variabilityof coastal systems in the VIP corridor requires
localized studies. In areas with very narrow coastal
plains such as in coral reef areas, images withresolution better than 30 meters are required andfield surveys are vital.
• Since the sediments of beaches associated withcoral reefs are biogenic in origin, identificationof the type and their sources are also needed.
Identification of the drivers of shoreline change
requires both regional and site specific studies
and retracing of climate, oceanographic, biologic,
geologic, and land use changes.
• Due to the limited information available on thecondition of seagrass beds around VIP, assessmenton the impacts of climate change on this ecosystem
is incomplete. Information on areas covered byseagrasses, demographic and recruitment-mortality
will be most useful in projecting the impact ofclimate change in any given area
• Eutrophication was identified as an exacerbating
factor to coastal habitat vulnerability. Delivery ofnutrients from various land-based anthropogenic
activities need to be identified in order to come up
with appropriate land-use management options.
• Sediment and nutrient delivery are not necessarily
locally-derived. Far-fetched sources, especiallyrelevant during extreme precipitation and storm
events, also need to be determined. This can beachieved using fine-scale particle tracking withmultiple release points under different climate
scenarios.
• The same particle-tracking, modified to suit specificspecies, can also be used to study connectivity
within and from outside the VIP. This can be used
as one of the tools in identifying areas that need to
be protected from a regional point-of-view.
• Different extreme events were shown to affect thehealth of habitat and fisheries. However, currently
lacking are on-the-ground measurements ofrecruitment failures due to episodic events.
42• The philosophical and pragmatic question is which
general type of reef system—the areas that are used
to variability or the areas that have been always
warm—are more susceptible to future climatechange. There is a need to examine the species(seagrass, coral, coral-zooxanthallae symbiont) thathave survived repetitive or extreme thermal anomaly
and factor these in management and rehabilitationplans of coastal habitats.
• Other exacerbating events like crown-of-thorns
break-out should also be documented.
• Ocean acidification trends and projections is a gapof special concern.

Scenarios for adaptation
Areas that suggest that adaptation measures areimperative shall be those which are crucial to marine
biodiversity, the life histories of important fisheries
species, and human well-being.
For biodiversity and fisheries, these areas would behigh candidate sites for expanding sizes or establishingareas as marine protected areas (MPA). This will not
only help in the conservation of existing flora andfauna but also in the replenishment of fisheries stocks
by regulating fishing effort. In addition to MPA, it isimperative that adoption of access and use rights
fisheries management interventions are put in placesuch as close and open seasons, gear regulations andeffort controls combined with access incentives linked
to stewardship e.g., reserves related to enhancement
and sea ranching of highly valued invertebrates species.
For human well-being, these areas would also be sites
which deliver multiple services to the community not
only as source of livelihood but also provide protection
from climate-related hazards.

Recommendations and next steps
The fisheries ecosystem approach to management
will need to put in place as natural links to thepresent conservation efforts with the tourism industry.
Environmental concerns will not only marginalize fishers
and their fishing grounds, exacerbate the impending
climate change impacts but will jeopardize the future of
our next generations.
The following are key strategies that will support efforts
in moving forward a strategic conservation plan thatwill harmonize with a sustainable fisheries management
agenda for the VIP consistent with a SSS and thePriority Biodiversity Conservation in the Philippines(e.g., Ong et al. 2002).

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : recommendations

Adaptation mechanisms would require that the present
CRM programs are more tightly integrated throughestablishing knowledge-based communities.
• These would involve multiple stakeholders working
together and the incipient MPA network in the
Verde Island Passage (VIP) would be a goodstarting point. The various CRM working groups
would also need to engage with each otherthrough inter-LGU arrangement joint fisheries law
enforcement teams (FLET) and bay management
councils or VIP level alliances can be formed.
• Since the VIP is the area where the state of thecoast has been piloted in the province of Batangas,
the opportunity to scale up these efforts and at
the same integrate within an ICM approach isimperative. As mentioned earlier, the research anddevelopment and extension areas would need amonitoring and evaluation program, and a response
and feedback program that mainstreams climatechange. Improving management effectivenessthrough MPA network complementation withfisheries management (e.g., grow-out of group fry
and “dulong” in conjunction with other aquarium),and Lubang and invertebrate fishery (e.g., in areas
with wide reef flats such as Lian and Calatagan
areas, tourism certification and or link with tourism).
• Linking with the ICE CREAM program would be
an immediate next step together with developinga cadre of local expertise from the various
higher education institutions (HEI), would be an
opportunity not to miss. Highly qualified on-siteexpertise such those in the De La Salle University
Brother Shields Marine Lab are available and arepart of the ICE CREAM program—VIP network
establishment with UB and BSU for fisheries andBiodiversity monitoring; Provincial MPA municipal
cluster networks can be established to provide avenue to establish joint enforcement, M&E and IEC
teams wherein they have some ecological basis
for their clustering e.g., adjacent boundaries andcirculation connectivity.
Based on available literature on the interconnectivity ofmangrove, seagrass and coral reef, protecting adjacentecosystems may increase the resilience of theseecosystems to the impacts, including that of climatechange.
• This phenomenon of interconnectivity resilience isexhibited by sites where all of the coastal habitats
can be persistently found (i.e., in Calatagan,
Batangas and San Juan, Batangas—also referred
to as Batangas East—and in a lesser degree in
Wawa-Paluan, Mindoro Occidental and Puerto
Galera-Naujan, Oriental Mindoro).

• Moreover, the concept of interconnectivity resiliency
has consequence on fisheries with fish that needdifferent habitats throughout their life stages (suchas snappers and groupers) being most vulnerable.
For example, the existence of these targetedfisheries in Wawa-Paluan and Puerto Galera-Naujan
is therefore partially buffered whereas those in
Mabini and Lubang are more vulnerable. Measures
must therefore be taken for habitat protection in
Mabini and Lubang for the sustainability of thesnapper and grouper fisheries in these sites.
• In sites that have shown significant adaptive
capacity and at the same time in sites where thefisheries were found vulnerable, measures must
be taken to reduce of prevailing threats such as
illegal and destructive fishing, emerging pollution
and habitat degradation from urban and industrial
development.
• In addition, given that sea level will accelerate in the
coming years and that storms are likely to increasein frequency and possibly strengthen, the natural
buffers to sea level rise and impact of large waves,such as coral reefs and mangroves, should beprotected and rehabilitated.
• Areas fronting the South China Sea and the
Sibuyan Sea may have a relatively higher storm
surge potential compared to those within the VIP.
The wave models show that in particular the areas
exhibiting large bottom orbital velocities are thecoasts facing Tayabas Bay, the northern coastof Lubang and possibly the western coast of theCalatagan Peninsula.
Deforestation and extensive agriculture in thewatersheds, long steep slopes, and presence ofnumerous faults, high seismicity, and volcanoes all
promote a high sediment yield. These potential will be
more intense during extreme weather events.
• In some areas, this high sediment yield has resulted
to rapid accretion. However, it should be notedthat this newly prograded lands, in addition toexisting low lying areas inland—presently occupied
by wetlands, fishponds, rice fields and coconut
plantations, are evaluated to be the most vulnerable
to marine inundation (e.g., areas such as Nasugbu
and Balayan that experienced rapid accretion inrecent years, are the most vulnerable to coastal
inundation; a 1 meter rise of sea level will alreadyresult to inundated of about 175 ha in Nasugbu and199 ha in Balayan).
• Instead of utilizing the newly prograded lands in the
VIP for various development, these can instead beused by the LGUs and national agencies as buffers
to erosion and action of large waves. Greenbelts,of the appropriate assemblage, can be establishedin these newly prograded lands. Wide mangrove43

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

plains will also reduce the level of nutrients andsediments entering the sea and create nursery
habitats for fisheries.
• Moreover, although the high sediment yield ofwatersheds has led to accretion, it is likely that it
has played a large role in the degradation of coral
reef ecosystems and in the decline of coastal andoffshore fisheries. In the formulation of mitigation
and adaptation measures, this link between themarine ecosystem and the watershed should beconsidered.
Watershed sediments ending at the coast leads tocoastal degradation. This is further exacerbated byerosion along the coast caused about by humanmodifications such as inappropriate ports, quarrying,
and removal of mangroves and seagrasses.
• Location of ports need not only take into
consideration the economic development but
should position the ports in such as way as not toimpede longshore sediment drift. Moreover, we
advocate constructing open ports which allow
water to flow in between pilings.
• Stop stone mining. Give alternative livelihood (e.g.,
the river mouth and flanks of Abra de Ilog show
erosion of ~150 m between 2001 and 2009.
Pebble picking activities is most likely contributing
to, if not the main cause, of the erosion west of theriver mouth).
• There is a need to educate people from various
strata of the functions of mangroves and coral reefs
towards the protection of the beach, e.g., erosionof about 200 m occurred along the mouth of
Kampungpong River in Batangas City. Removal ofthe mangrove, large constructions and expansionsof piers along the coast of Batangas City are likely
linked to the erosion.
• Development along the coasts and the plainsshould also consider the likely natural changes that
can take place due to tectonics, volcanism and river
dynamics (e.g., erosion along the Baco-Malaylay
delta may have been triggered by liquefaction
caused by the magnitude 7.1 earthquake on asegment of Lubang Fault, south of Verde Island on
November 15, 1994).
• A lot of coastal developments (including planting ofmangroves on seagrass beds) have been observed
around Batangas that either removes seagrasses
or constructs barriers that influence the naturalhydrology within the coastal areas. The latter makes
the seagrasses around VIP more vulnerable toeutrophication caused by impediment of the flow ofwater in these areas.

44

Early response and immediate
management recommendations• Seasonal regulation of dulong, milkfish fry and otherfry fishery with very minimal fishing during peakoccurrence (based on lunar periodicity). This will
reduce fishing mortality at the early life stages.
• Establishment of fry-grow out schemes to enhancejuvenile survivorship e.g., for grouper, bangus andhigh value invertebrates in conjunction with MPA
buffer reserve area.
• Gear effort control at varying habitat types (e.g., live
fish collectors, fish corral deployment); establish
incentives for regulating effort through certification
schemes and targeting stakeholders for capacity
building.
• Stricter enforcement over illegal fishing practices(blastfishing, cyanide fishing, poaching) andcapacity building for inter-hierarchical network
enforcement teams and incentives for stewards andIEC for greater social pressures on “illegalistas”• Increase sizes of protected areas including otherhabitat types (e.g., mangroves, seagrasses,lagoons). Aside from fishery benefits, thismechanism will ensure good conditions ofprotected areas, and therefore less sensitive toclimate change. Identify areas for refugia and stockenhancement strategies.
• Alternative livelihood (other economic/job
opportunities) to fishing to reduce fishing pressureand other supplemental livelihood support (e.g.,training of invertebrate grow out on reserve areas)• Proper zonation of use of coastal waters (fisheryzone, MPA, aquaculture zone, industry zone) as
this will lower sensitivity of habitats and therefore
vulnerability and reduce conflicting uses withclearer guidelines, ordinances and incentives perzone that incorporates climate considerations (e.g.,
erosion, sea surface temperature, and siltation).

chapter 1• vulnerability assessment of marine ecosystems and fisheries to climate change : references

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chapter 2• human well- being and climate change : vulnerability assessment for adaptation

Chapter 2:
Human well-being and climatechange in the Verde Island
Passage: vulnerability assessment
for adaptation
Rowena R. Boquiren 1, Lead Integrator
Contributing Authors: Annabelle Trinidad 1, Rina Rosales (consultant), Niva Gonzales (consultant)
1 Conservation International–Philippines

47

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Introduction
Climate change, gradually being experienced globallyis adversely affecting the wellbeing of humanity. In thePhilippines’ Verde Island Passage Marine Biodiversity
Conservation Corridor, now more popularly known as
the center of the center of marine biodiversity, rising sea
level and surface temperature, pronounced storminessand unpredictable rainfall patterns are disturbing
people’s food and livelihood security, water security,
health security as well as cultural and options values.
The greatest concentration of marine species in the
Indo-Malay-Philippine Archipelago is as threatened byclimate change as the human population, especiallyalong the passage.

Objective
As its first objective, a socio-economic team assessedthe vulnerability and adaptive capacity of coastal
communities in the Verde Island Passage to climatechange. As a second objective the initiative had
a methodological component which was to test
appropriate approaches for engaging mandated
agencies in the vulnerability assessment. To theextent that appropriate methodologies have yet to be
developed for Philippine ecosystem situations, thesocioeconomic aspect was addressed iteratively as alearning process, by demonstrating to local governance
units and line agencies the steps in the vulnerability
assessment.
The following specific objectives were addressed:• identify impacts of climate change in the physical,
biological, and socio-economic systems;• describe responses of the biological/ecological andsocio-economic systems;• determine the vulnerability of these systems;• provide management recommendations to address
climate change impacts; and,• identify knowledge gaps and research priorities.

48

Figure 41. Geographic scope of the socioeconomic
vulnerability assessment in the Verde Island Passage,
municipalities abutting it, and coastal habitats found there.

chapter 2• human well- being and climate change : methodology

Methodology
Climate change vulnerability of a particular area wasdefined as the amount of exposure and sensitivity lessthe capacity of the community to adapt. Exposureand sensitivity, defined below, are the recommended
vulnerability assessment indicators of climate change
impacts on human wellbeing.

Exposure

Exposure is defined as the types of valued assets thatare at risk of being impacted by changes in climate.
These assets include social assets (people, health,education), economic assets (property, infrastructure,and income), and ecological assets (natural resourcesand ecological services) (USAID 2009). The profile offoreshore areas would allow stakeholders to assess
exposure appropriately. For this component, assets
can be ranked in terms of their importance to local
stakeholders and to the local and/or national economy.

Sensitivity

Sensitivity refers to the degree of likely damage ofan asset if exposed to climate change. To assess thesensitivity of coastal assets exposed to climate change,
the following questions may be considered (USAID
2009):• How and to what degree were social, economicand ecological assets affected by past climate
conditions and coastal hazard events?
• What specific characteristics make groups or
systems sensitive?
• Was everyone equally impacted? If not, what were
the differences between various individuals andgroups?
• What is the sensitivity of “non-exposed” assets?
For example, agriculture activities that take placeaway from the coast may rely on a highly exposedand sensitive coastal road or port for export. Losing
this transportation asset could result in a loss in thevalue of the agricultural assets.

Adaptive capacity

Adaptive capacity is the most critical of the three
dimensions because it shows a community’s ability to
manage and thereby reduce gross vulnerability. Hence,vulnerability is increased when adaptive capacities areminimal or not present.
Assessing the adaptive capacity of a place or sector
helps in understanding why vulnerability exists in thefirst place. To reduce vulnerability, stakeholders must
understand its root causes. These are much deeper
societal issues than, for example, poorly constructedhouses being located in areas of coastal erosion. Root

causes might include poverty, insecure property rights,
natural resource dependency, degraded resources, andweaknesses in institutions and political assets (Adger
1999). Adaptive capacity can be strengthened throughpolicies that enhance social and economic equity,
reduce poverty, improve natural resources and coastalmanagement, increase public participation, generate
useful and actionable information, and strengthen
institutions.
For heuristic purposes, because vulnerability
assessment methodology in the Philippine setting has
not yet been developed, the team selected the following
socioeconomic concerns in the Verde Island Passage
project, using interdisciplinary perspectives to guideresearch methods:• economic trends and livelihood sources (with focus
on fisheries, tourism and foreshore development);• health and food safety.
The vulnerability assessment process started with 1)
knowing the climate change projection, 2) determinationof exposure and sensitivity of a given region or locale
to climate change, including the assessment of thehealth of coastal habitats and ecosystems, and 3) anassessment of adaptive capacity (capacity of society tocope with the expected or actual climate changes).
Participative and inter-agency collaborative methods
were observed in the project. Iterative learning overnine months depended on accessed agency reports,
roundtable discussions, interviews, focus groups
discussions and workshops across varied lines offocus and expertise. Participative techniques engaged
local government units (LGU) from the provincial anddown to the municipal levels, stakeholders from coastal
communities and non-governmental organizations
in generating and systematizing information fromthe ground, to be linked with insights of academics,
scientists and experts across disciplines in the physical,
biological and social sciences.
The research process demonstrated what variables
or data are to be accessed from agencies, generated
from rapid site assessments and through inter-agency
or multi-sectoral workshops to generate the baseline;
how to customize climate change-sensitive instruments;
what tools and measures can be creatively developed
to facilitate vulnerability assessment; and in what
aspects the help of support groups can be tappedfor science-based disciplinal expertise and technicalinputs.

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climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Context analysis from the baseline as premise of thevulnerability assessment was first observed by the team:background on the sector, its importance, components/
aspects and trends related to climate change impacts
on the marine resources that the people experience. Asa basis to the assessment, profiles were laid down, no
matter how preliminary, as a flexible and opportunistic
approach to data gathering in view of institutional gaps.
The vulnerability and resilience potentials of coastal
communities were addressed next, followed byrecommendations to management units. The noveltyof climate change impacts in institutional mechanisms
and in the public mind requires plans and policies to bescaled up beyond the normative and routine by being
inter-linked and inter-agency driven in emphasizing
the importance of human wellbeing along with marine
biodiversity conservation.
Climate change effects on and of the people in thevulnerability assessment process are illustrated in aframework creatively designed by the team (Fig. 42).
Extreme changes in climate affect marine habitats
and species which then impact upon the economic
uses of the marine waters and coasts as well as the
livelihood and health of communities. Changes in sea
surface temperature (SST), accelerated sea level rise
(ASLR), storminess and unexpected precipitation
patterns have effects on the fisheries, tourism andforeshore development trends that will damage ordestroy investments if there are no climate change
adaptation actions early enough. Beyond understanding
the effects of climate change on the socioeconomic
conditions of communities dependent on marine
resources, the vulnerability assessment also included
the exacerbating anthropogenic factors that affect themarine environment, represented by the back flows ofarrows.

Fig. 42. Socioeconomic aspects in the vulnerability
assessment of the Verde Island Passage.
50

Rising sea levels inundate wetlands and other low-lying
lands, erode beaches, intensify flooding, and increase
the salinity of rivers, bays, and groundwater tables,
but some of these effects may be compounded byadaptation activities such as measures that people taketo protect private property from rising sea level that may
have adverse effects on the environment and on public
uses of fish ports, beaches and waterways. Foreshoredevelopment, for instance, can bring in increasing
investments for physical infrastructure such as sea walls
or reclaimed areas in the short term, but in the longer
term, these structures and human activities can damage
mangrove ecosystems, fragment habitats, damage
nutrient flows or cause destructive algal blooms which
can aggravate climate change effects. Vulnerability
assessment is therefore essentially related to disasterrisk reduction and management.
More studies are needed to have appropriate guidelines
for addressing adaptation. The vulnerability assessment
exercise for Verde Island Passage is still exploratory but
already significant for its methodological contributions.

chapter 2• human well- being and climate change : methodology

Summary: methodology for socioeconomic vulnerability assessment
Fisheries

Characterization of the fisheries sector in Verde Island Passage (VIP) was done through literature review and analysis
of fisheries statistics from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS). Data from BAS was used to infer volume andvalue of production and number of fishers from three provinces in Verde Island Passage , namely: Batangas, Occidental
Mindoro, and Oriental Mindoro. Finer scale data provided by technical reports allowed a more in-depth analysis forselected municipalities including: Mabini and Tingloy, for tuna fisheries (Soliman manuscript); Verde Island, Lubang, Looc
and Paluan municipalities, for aquarium fishing (MAC and REEFcheck report); and Mabini, coral reef fisheries (MERF
report). The compendium of PCAMRD on the impacts of El Niño on fisheries was compiled and used to supplement theliterature review on increase in sea surface temperature.
A “perceptual survey” with 41 respondents and key informant interviews were conducted in the municipalities of Mabini,
Bauan, Calatagan, Lian and Batangas City in April-May 2009 to determine how a sample of fishers perceive climatechange. In particular, the following manifestations of climate change were validated: changes in frequency, occurrence,and magnitude of typhoons; changes in frequency, occurrence, and intensity of rainfall; sea level rise.
Tourism and foreshore development
The profile of the tourism sector and foreshore development status and trends was generated from previous studies,
accessed data from government agencies in the VIP, interviews and a field survey in April to June 2009.
A climate change vulnerability assessment was conducted on July 22 to 24, 2009 participated in mostly by local
government representatives from the coastal municipalities of the five provinces surrounding Verde Island Passage,
namely Batangas, Mindoro Occidental, Mindoro Oriental, Marinduque, and Romblon. Resource persons from thenatural and social sciences shared their initial assessments and frameworks for analysis on the potential impacts ofclimate change occurrences that are projected to occur. Climate change impacts include the following: increase in sea
surface temperature, sea level rise, increased frequency and intensity of typhoons, changing rainfall patterns, and ocean
acidification. Economic and social sectors that were assessed in terms of their vulnerability to such climate change
occurrences include: fisheries, food safety and security, tourism and settlements/infrastructure in foreshore areas.
The framework for assessing the vulnerability of foreshore areas was applied by some of the participants coming frommunicipalities with significant infrastructure development in their respective foreshore areas, i.e., Balayan-Batangas,
Calatagan-Batangas, Bauan-Batangas, Nasugbu-Batangas, Puerto Galera-Mindoro Oriental, and Naujan-Mindoro
Oriental. Appendix A contains the list of participants for the foreshore area workshop group.
For the tourism sector, the framework for assessing the vulnerability was applied by some of the participants coming frommunicipalities with active tourism activities, i.e., Mabini-Batangas, Lian-Batangas, Tingloy-Batangas, Bauan-Batangas,
Puerto Galera-Mindoro Oriental, and Calapan-Mindoro Oriental. Other municipalities with plans of increasing tourism intheir areas also participated in the tourism workshop group.
Workshop objectives were provided as follows:• Identify impacts of climate change in the physical, biological and socio-economic systems.
• Describe responses of the biological/ecological and socio-economic systems.
• Determine vulnerability of these systems.
• Provide management recommendations to address climate change impacts.
• Identify knowledge gaps, research priorities.
Health, food safety, and demographic trends
Accessed data from government agencies (National Statistical Board, National Statistics Office, Provincial/Municipal
Planning and Development Offices of Batangas, Mindoro Oriental and Mindoro Occidental) were the sources for thedemographic and health profile of the Passage, supplemented by information from the Batangas Provincial Disaster
Coordinating Office.
Key informant interviews and focus group discussions were conducted in the municipalities of Mabini, Bauan, Calatagan,
Lian and Batangas City in April-May 2009 to reconstruct health and food safety observations and experiences over the
past 5-10 years and the local people’s current knowledge on climate change.
A climate change vulnerability assessment was conducted on July 22 to 24, 2009:• Identify the impacts of climate change on socio-economic systems and their resulting responses in the Verde Island
Passage.
• Determine other impacts (natural or anthropogenic) that further contribute to the vulnerability of these systems.
• Provide recommendation for actions to address the impacts of climate change by increasing resilience, reducing
vulnerability, increasing capacity for adaptation.
• Identify policy and knowledge gaps and research priorities.

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climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Results and discussion
Profile of the Verde Island Passage andvulnerable socioeconomic situation

flooding, erosion, siltation, and other damages broughtby storms.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its
4th report detailed the impacts of climate change that
affect human populations:

Biodiversity and ecosystem soundness are boththreatened by the status and direction of developmentin the Verde Island Passage. Along with manufacturing,
residential and institutional uses, fishing, farming, andtourism, the passage is an essential route for industrial
and economic activities. Its waterways are some of
the busiest in the Philippines, being used daily by oil
and chemical carriers. Consequently, the shores of theprovince of Batangas are lined with shipyards, chemicaland petrochemical plants, and oil refineries.

• Floods and droughts will be more frequent, andstorms more intense.
• Water will be in shorter (and more erratic) supply.
• Sea level rise will result in salt water intrusion incoastal areas decreasing available freshwater.
• Water pollution will be worsened by higher watertemperatures, increased precipitation, and longer
dry periods.
• The likelihood of water borne diseases will increase.
• Aquatic ecosystems will suffer changes in water
availability and related extinctions of species
sensitive to water temperature and availability.
In addition to natural processes, threats to the rich
but fragile environmental resources within and aroundthe Verde Island Passage become more pronounced
as population, conservation and natural resource
management issues persist. Developments that
respond to the escalating needs for income and food,industrialization and urbanization pose greater risks tothe environment and to people’s livelihood and health.

Biophysical setting

The Verde Island Passage extends about 100 km,
from Lubang, Mindoro Occidental in the northwest, to
the Romblon’s island municipality of Corcuera in thesoutheast, and about 20 km across at its narrowest
portion. The passage, a total of more than 494,700
hectares, is a special management area under thejurisdiction of five provinces: Batangas, Occidental
Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, and Romblon.
Warmer temperatures, diminished waters sources,
and soil erosion results from a thinning forest coverwhile fish production is adversely affected by suchchanges as the loss of mangroves. Around the VerdeIsland Passage, the provinces of Batangas, Romblon
and Marinduque have the least forest cover in relation
to their respective land areas, with 4.46, 5.41, and13.78% respectively (Forest Management Bureau or
FMB 2003).
Low-lying and coastal communities as well as industries
are exposed to hazards associated with strong
typhoons and heavy rains. At least 51 barangays in
10 Batangas municipalities are more predisposed to52

Other observed trends and facts on the socioeconomic
situation in the Verde Island Passage are the following:• Overfishing and the use of illegal fishing methods
such as the use of sodium cyanide, explosives, andfine-meshed nets.
• Mangrove plantations are cut for other land usesthat include fish farming. Calatagan’s mangrove
areas had been reduced to a mere 26.3 ha from 1
32.8 hectares in 1950 (Gonzales 2009).
• Agriculture is intensified, necessitating increased
use of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. Batangas
itself has surpassed its capacity levels, with crop
production activities utilizing marginal lands,
including upland areas (Lusterio-Berja and Colson2008).
• Forest cover has been diminished as this landhas been converted to cultivation. Logging andextractive industries such as mining put entire forest
ecosystems at risk.
• Forest patches and agricultural lands are cleared tomake way for new human settlements and for profitmaking ventures at various scales.
• Garbage and toxic effluents from settlements,
industrial operations and intensified agricultural
production contaminate the ground and water
bodies through seepage and run off. Residuals
from households and agriculture contribute to thepollution of Batangas Bay and Verde Passage(Arcenas 2008, in Gonzales 2009).
• Wastewater discharge from Batangas City’s
industries is estimated at almost 600 million
liters per year, 98% of which come from the
manufacturing, refinery and power industries(Gonzales 2009). Oil spills from ships are aconstant threat given the numerous local andinternational ports and shipyards in Batangas
province and the Verde Passage being a busy routefor cargo and passenger vessels.
• Residential areas, including informal settlements,

chapter 2

expand especially in the lowland and coastal areas
where commerce, industry and infrastructure areconcentrated. Population congestion and mounting
garbage expose people to diseases and otherproblems.
• More frequent algal blooms that are harmful to thehealth of marine resources and thus, of humans, arelikely due to pollution of water bodies.
• Decline in fish catch has been attributed to theestablishment of industries in the coastal areas.
• Industrial and vehicular emissions cause air
pollution. In 2004, Batangas City had a one-year
exposure level of 127 μg m-3 total suspended
particulates which consist of dust, smoke, soot,and acid fumes usually produced by motor
vehicles and fuel-burning facilities. Exceeding theacceptable level of 90 μg m-3, the city’s inhabitants
are predisposed to cardiovascular and respiratory
diseases (Lusterio-Berja and Colson 2008).

Demographic trends and the status of humanhealth and safety
Climate change impacts in the Verde Island Passage
may influence three factors that impact upon the stateof human health: settlement expansion from fertility
and migration, increased economic opportunities andurbanization. Baseline data on these factors are wellestablished but have not been appropriately considered
in terms of adaptation to climate change.

The five provinces (Table 24) flanking the Verde Island
Passage consist of 32 municipalities and two cities
which support 3,913,000 people (46.07% of the total
2007 population). In Batangas, Occidental Mindoro
and Oriental Mindoro, more than 251 barangays (28%)
serve as residence to 34% (557,710) of the population.
In summary, from one third to almost a half of the total
population of Verde Island Passage provinces areresidents of coastal communities where the population
size grows fastest.
Known coastal centers of commerce and industry in
Batangas province such as Batangas City, Nasugbu,
Taal, and Balayan had higher annual population growth
rates than Batangas province as a whole. In 2000, a
total of 67% of the region’s population lived in urban
areas where industries and commercial establishments
were already concentrated (Lusterio-Berja and Colson2008).
Although there are lower annual population growth
rates for the provinces, growth rate in the municipalities
of Looc and Lubang increased from 0.22% in 19952000, to 3.41% and 3.35% respectively in 20002007, higher than the national average of 2.3%. Puerto
Galera’s annual growth rate also increased from 2.56%
to 3.45%. People from communities with less economic• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion

opportunities have migrated into areas with more
options. Notably, Puerto Galera, Looc and Lubang areincreasingly becoming attractive as tourist destinations,with the Lubang Island known for its wealth in fish
resources (Occidental Mindoro PPDO 2009; Oriental
Mindoro PPDO 2008).
Among the five provinces of the Verde Island Passage,
Batangas is the most densely populated at 720 people
km2, which is higher than the 709 people km2 forthe entire Region IV-A Calabarzon (refers to Cavite,
Laguna, Batangas and Rizal Zone). Calabarzon has
the largest population and is the second most densely
populated region in the country. It draws an influx ofpeople because of the lucrative economic opportunities
presented by its growing number of industries.
While industrialization draws people into the urban
center, poverty continues to be a great challenge
despite income derived from industries, tourism,
agriculture and fisheries. A quarter to about half ofthe families in the Verde Island Passage provinces
had incomes below the designated poverty and foodthresholds in 2006. Batangas with 25.6% poverty
lacked more than 12% in fish supply in terms of percapita consumption in 2004 (Batangas PPDO 2007).
Oriental Mindoro and Occidental Mindoro slipped
into becoming the 12th and 13th poorest provincesin the Philippines from being 32nd and 36th in 2000,
and from being 28th and 19th in 2003. Romblon
became the 25th poorest province in the country. A
considerable section of the population are fisherfolks:
more than 16,000 fishers in Batangas City and other
Batangas towns beside the Verde Island Passage (year2007), 15,535 municipal fishermen lived in Oriental
Mindoro in 2008.
There are significant reproductive and other healthconcerns in the region. Mimaropa registered a total
fertility rate of 5.0% in 2003, which was the highest in
the country, as against Calabarzon's 3.2%, the lowest
during the period. Although Batangas has an obvious
advantage over the Mimaropa provinces in terms of
economic position, health services and infrastructure,contraceptive prevalence in the province was only
41.77% (Batangas PPDO 2007) and 2007 crude birthrate (22.96) was even higher than those of Occidental
and Oriental Mindoro (20.49 and 20.9 respectively).
Batangas City itself had a crude birth rate of 21.23
and an infant mortality rate of 16.83 (Batangas City
OCPDC 2007), which was more than double theprovincial rate, and almost three and four times that of
Occidental Mindoro and Oriental Mindoro respectively.
Moreover, 8.2% of all children below 72 months old
were considered malnourished because they weighed
below normal low (BNL) and very low (BNVL).

53

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Table 24. Population of municipalities and barangays along the Verde Island Passage (VIP).
Province/municipality/
city

Population (2007)
barangays
total
along VIP

No. of barangays
per
along
mun/city
VIP

PHILIPPINES
Region IV-A (Calabarzon)
Batangas province
BalayanBatangas City
Bauan
CalacaCalatagan
LemeryLian
Lobo
Mabini
Nasugbu
San Juan
San Luis
San Pascual
Taal
Tingloy
Total population along the VIP

88,574,614
11,743,110
2,245,869
79,407295,231
79,83164,966
51,54476,09044,92537,79840,629113,926
87,276
29,64557,20051,45918,548
1,128,475

Region IV-B (Mimaropa)
Occidental Mindoro
Abra de Ilog
Looc
LubangPaluanTotal population along the VIP

2,559,791
421,952
25,152
11,31028,267
13,71878,447

10,117
10,31728,267
4,191
52,892

9
9
16
12
46

3
8
9
2
22

Oriental Mindoro
Baco
City of Calapan
GloriaNaujanPinamalayan
Pola
Puerto Galera
San Teodoro
Total population along the VIP735,769
34,127
116,976
40,561
90,62977,11932,63528,03515,039435,1217,526
47,014
12,166
14,27526,977
10,61819,742
7,982
146,300

27
62
27
70
37
23
13
8
267

6
18
8
11
9
9
12
4
77

MarinduqueBuenavista
Gasan
MogpogTotal population along the VIP

229,636
21,01833,772
33,341
138,954% of total provincial population

60.51%

RomblonBantonConcepcion
CorueraTotal population of island
municipalities along the VIP

279,774
6,799
4,166
10,883% of total provincial population

20,87365,774
24,34819,191
34,43327,14919,114
18,58920,61629,48826,537
10,091
18,942
4,825
18,548358,518

21,848

48
105
40
40
25
46
19
26
34
42
42
26
29
42
15
579

11
18
10
8
16
13
6
10
13
7
15
6
3
1
15
152

Population
density persq km (2007)

Annual population
growth rate %(2000-2007)

295
709
720
730
1,043
1,199
648
460
749
585
196
946
433
319
757
1,637
1,729
572

2.04
3.24
2.29
2.33
2.46
1.32
1.46
1.87
1.87
1.92
1.51
1.12
2.37
1.53
1.34
2.14
2.36
1.19

93
72
47
85
250
24

1.49
1.56
1.89
3.41
3.35
2.01

169
141
441
176
172
278
251
125
41

1.06
1.71
1.38
0.66
1.07
0.77
0.30
3.45
1.19

241

0.76

3,403,590
Total population of Batangas, Occ. Mindoro, and Or. Mindoro
24 + 2
Number of VIP municipalities and cities in the above
1,642,042
Total population of the 24 municipalities and 2 cities
557,710 (34%)
Total population of VIP barangays in above
1,084,332 (66%)
Total population of non-VIP barangays in above
1
Total number of barangays in the VIP municipalities andcities of Batangas, Occ. Mindoro, and Or. Mindoro
Number of VIP barangays
Number of non-VIP barangays in the VIP municipalities andcities of the 3 provinces

0.78

892
251 (28.14%)641 (71.86%)

7.81%

Source: Collated by SEPU for the Population, Health and Environment (PHE) network from materials and data availed through the Provincial Planning and Development Office (PPDO) of Batangas, Occidental, and Oriental Mindoro(acquired May-August 2009) and through the National Statistics Office (NSO) 2007 Census of Population.

Water supply and sanitation are health problems
associated with poverty. As of 2007, 89% of families
in Calabarzon had access to safe water while this was
only 76% in Mimaropa. During the same year, 16% of
the Batangas population did not have access to safe
drinking water. Six percent of the families in Calabarzon
and 20% of those in Mimaropa were without sanitary
toilet facilities. The absence of safe water and sanitary
toilet facilities are associated with diarrhea and otherwater and food-borne diseases.
54

In relation to climate change adaptation, the National
Objectives for Health in the Philippines (NOH 20052010) does not specifically cite climate change as acause of health problems, yet major causes of mortality
currently are recognized as climate sensitive diseases:
under-nutrition (3.7 million), diarrhea (1.8 million),and malaria (1.1 million). Acute or upper respiratory
tract infection was the leading cause of morbidity inthe provinces of Batangas, Occidental, and Oriental
Mindoro (2007). Pneumonia was the top cause ofchapter 2• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion

mortality in Occidental Mindoro while it ranked fourth inOriental Mindoro.

Batangas Province
demersal
13%

Whether because of extreme weather and highrainfall, eight out of 10 leading causes of illnesses
are infectious. While most of these happen without
being attributed to climate change, threats to humanhealth and safety can demonstrate how vulnerability
assessment in climate change adaptation can and mustbe pursued to avoid major epidemics.

small pelagic
72%

Occidental Mindoro Province
demersal
17%

Economic uses

A large portion of the Verde Island Passage population
is employed near Batangas, where there are eightindustrial parks including Cocochem Agro-Industrial
Park and Tabangao Special Export Processing Zone,
as well as 181 companies that are mostly situatedin Batangas City and other coastal municipalities(Batangas PPDO 2007). Tourism also offers significant
employment opportunities for coastal communities inresorts close to major dive sites. While commerce andindustry provide big revenues, a substantial segment of
the population depends on agriculture for sustenance.
Fisheries remain a viable income and food source formany people who live immediately around the passage.
Discussion of the economic profile for the vulnerability
assessment is confined only to fisheries, tourism, andforeshore development.
Fisheries
i. Fish production
One of the important steps in the Vulnerability
Assessment was to estimate fisheries production
attributable to the habitats of the Verde Island Passage(VIP) (Figure 43). Two sources of data were used forthis purpose: a) Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS)data set which provides for disaggregation of fisheries
production on a provincial level, and b) LGU data which
are presented in plans or in various published andunpublished reports. For the capture sector, all coastal
municipalities of Batangas were included, assumingthat their main fishing area is in the Verde Island
Passage.
As for aquaculture, we only considered brackish water
fishponds and seaweed production and expressly
ignored the huge volume of production from Taal
Lake. For Oriental Mindoro, we assumed all 14
coastal municipalities contribute to, and are fishing in,
Verde Island Passage. For Occidental Mindoro, weonly considered the four municipalities that include
Paluan, Abra de Ilog, Lubang, and Looc and as such,provincial level production was divided equally by all
11 municipalities and multiplied by four in order to getappropriate attribution for these four.

tuna
15%

tuna
18%

small pelagic
65%

Oriental Mindoro Province
demersal
16%

tuna
22%

small pelagic
62%

Fig. 43. Fisheries production by major species in VerdeIsland Passage.

Our estimates are shown in Tables 25-27 and indicatethat Verde Island Passage contributes somewhere
between 40-47 thousand MT per year with the provinceof Batangas contributing the most. The 6,000 MT
average for Occidental Mindoro is already a weighted
figure for the four municipalities, as explained, and so
appear to be lower than BAS statistics. Another 4,000
MT was estimated to be from the aquaculture sector(bangus, prawns, and seaweeds). As for aquarium
fishing, another activity studied, we assume that
production was not recorded at both LGU and BAS
levels.
Small pelagics are the most important species groupcaught in Verde Island Passage with Batangas alone
contributing an average of 18,000 MT per year. The
Table 25. Marine fisheries production (thousand MT) from the commercial
and municipal sectors estimated for Verde Island Passage from 2005-2007.
Province

2005

2006

2007

Batangas
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro
Total

20.10
5.93
13.30
39.33

27.80
6.29
13.20
47.29

26.40
6.76
13.90
47.06

Source: Basic data from BAS 2007.

55

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

dominant small pelagic species include roundscad,anchovies, mackerel, and sardines while the tuna
species caught include skipjack and yellowfin.
Demersal species include slipmouths, threadfin bream,and squid. For the three provinces, the distribution ofmajor species caught is similar, and in all cases small
pelagics dominate the production total. This study
found that tuna ranks second and demersals rank third,in all provinces. Soliman (manuscript) suggests that
Mabini and Tingloy together contribute to about 2000
MT per year of tuna per year or more than half of thetotal Batangas production.
Table 26. Aquaculture production (thousand MT) from brackish water
fishponds and seaweed farms estimated for Verde Island Passage from2005-2007.
Province

2005

2006

2007

Fishponds
Batangas
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro
Total fishponds

0.19
0.76
2.05
3.00

0.19
0.78
2.14
3.11

0.16
0.86
2.22
3.24

Seaweeds
Batangas
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro
Total seaweeds

0.50
0.51
0.15
1.16

0.70
0.55
0.14
1.39

1.00
0.58
0.12
1.70

Table 27. Estimates for tuna, small pelagics and demersal fish catch(thousand MT) from the Verde Island Passage from 2005-2007.
				Province
2005
2006
2007

3 yearaverage

Tuna
Batangas
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro

3.24
0.98
3.06

4.42
1.15
2.97

3.75
1.34
2.94

3.80
1.16
2.99

Small Pelagics
Batangas
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro

14.26
3.83
8.10

19.99
4.14
8.10

18.81
4.40
8.74

17.69
4.12
8.31

Demersals
Batangas
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro

2.60
1.12
2.14

3.39
1.00
2.13

3.84
1.03
2.22

3.28
1.05
2.16

56

ii. Fishers and fishing units
We estimated a total of 12,000 municipal andcommercial fishers were utilizing the fisheries resourcesof Verde Island Passage. It was not possible todisaggregate the numbers of commercial and municipal
fishers to the major species group (tuna, small pelagics,
and demersals) because both sectors were exploiting
the same target species albeit using different gears or
size/power of boats. The same observation on targeting
similar species is echoed by Soliman in his manuscript
on Mabini and Tingloy. However, we estimated thenumber of municipal and commercial fishers by
extrapolating from available data. Data from Batangas
Provincial Agriculturists Office suggested that there
were approximately 550 commercial fishers, andanother 400 deep sea fishers from Lubang municipality.
We therefore used a conservative estimate of 2,000
commercial fishers out of the total 12,000.
We could not make any judgment on whether thesenumbers include aquarium fishers but we neverthelessindicated the numbers in Table 28.
Table 28. Number of commercial and municipal fishers per province
including aquarium fishers (estimates from various sources).

Province

Commercial andmunicipal
Aquariumfishers
fishers

Batangas

9508

Batangas City
(Bgy Sn Andres, Verde Is.)117

Occidental Mindoro

1300

Lubang
Looc
Paluan

614
258
420

Oriental Mindoro

1477

Total

12200

SourceRosales consultancy
report for CI (2006)
MAC Report, Reef Check
Report
MAC Report, Reef Check
Report14
14
20
Coastal resource profile
of Oriental Mindoro(estimate only) 250

chapter 2iii. Aquarium fisheries
Aquarium fishing is prevalent in Verde Island (under thejurisdiction of Batangas City) Lubang, Looc, and Paluan
and all of Occidental Mindoro. Studies on the aquarium
trade indicate that aquarium fishing is also practiced in
Lian and Calatagan (Figure 44).

• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion(use hands or hand-based tools) divers or those who
do not use any air-supplying device. Dives may lastfrom 8 am until 2 pm every day until enough fish areassembled, i.e., about 500 to 1000 assorted tropicalfish, after which the catch is brought to Tabangao enroute to Manila. A comparison of average monthly
incomes of: a) mano mano fisher; b) hookah collector(including crew), and c) trader indicate that the mano
mano fisher earns an average of P4,600 per monthcompared to the hookah collector who earns P5,100.
The trader earns the highest at P7,800 per month(MAC Report).
Despite the relatively low average monthly incomes,
the income of mano mano fishers may be as high as
P12,000 in some months, and hookah fishers as highas P19,000, presumably when catches are high andwhen the expensive species are caught.

Fig. 44. Roving collection routes in the Verde Island Passage
corridor.

A feature article that chronicles the lives and practicesof aquarium fishers of Barangay San Andres in VerdeIsland has anecdotal details that indicate vulnerable
marine resources and human communities in thepassage (Lesaba 2009). In that community, 90% of the
population (about 1200 people) is engaged in diving
for tropical fish or aquaculture. They go to areas withgood reefs and catch species such as yellow wrasse,
sexline wrasse, longnose pupper, white fin lion, spot fin
anthias. Occasionally, they catch “Majestic” which arepriced at P800 to P1000 apiece. It is more of a wayof life for the people of Barangay San Andres so they
have to continuously adapt to local regulations and findsome enterprising “sponsors” in other municipalities/
provinces.
Ironically, the practice is banned not only in Verde Island
but also in the barangay which breeds aquarium fishers
and this is the reason why the practice is exported
to places such as Lubang and Looc in Occidental
Mindoro (Figure 44). Conservation International has
also commissioned the Marine Aquarium Council(MAC) and Reefcheck to investigate sustainability
options for roving aquarium fishers in the Verde Island
Passage.
The collection practice itself is dependent on good
weather, especially for those who are “mano mano”

Early analyses of the effects of El Niño on tuna fisheries
in the Philippines point to minimal or no impacts on
overall production. Barut (1999) argues that Philippine
waters approximate that of the Western Tropical Pacific(WTP) where no warm water intrusion is bound tooccur and even if it does, tuna is known to thermoregulate. Further observations of U.S. tuna fleets
support the claim that no change in production is
expected in the WTP waters. Meanwhile, the AustralianBluefin Association observed an increase in tunaproduction, and an increase in small pelagics, especiallyin areas where upwelling occurs.
Recent climate change studies depict more of adowntrend in production and a shift in abundanceat higher latitudes (Aaheim and Sygna 2000) andmodeled changes for skipjack (Pratchett et al. 2008).
Increased water temperature is forecast to result inchanges to the distribution and abundance of tuna
towards the Central Pacific and away from the Coral
Triangle area. Moreover the impacts of increasing watertemperature on habitats and incidence of storms andacidification threaten coastal habitats such as coral
reefs. Lehodey (2000) agrees with the shift in spatial
distribution and decline in abundance of fisheries,
especially in the Pacific, but recognizes that somecountries may in fact gain from this anticipated change.
iv. Small pelagics fisheries
The importance of the small pelagic fisheries sector in
Verde Island Passage can be gleaned from production
statistics. Annual average production of small pelagics(sardines, anchovies, round scads, and mackerels) total
more than 30, 000 MT. In Batangas province, more than
70% of catch is small pelagics and in the two Mindoro
provinces, more than 60% of catch is small pelagics.
Both commercial and municipal fishers exploit the small
pelagics fisheries.
57

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Like tuna, small pelagics are observed to favor deeper,cooler waters during periods of drought or El Niño.
In such cases, the movement of these fish to deeper
waters may assist commercial fishing gears suchas ringnets and Danish seines. In nearshore waters,competition among municipal fishers will intensify
unless gear adaptation occurs.
v. Demersals
Total production of demersal fish (represented bythreadfin bream, squid and slipmouths) has an annual
average of 6,000 MT for Verde Island Passage. In
percentage terms, it is similar to tuna which contributes
somewhere between 10 and 15% of total production.
In value terms, the demersal fishery has the highest
value contribution at more than P400 million pesos, on
average, compared to P372 million for small pelagics,
and an even smaller value for tuna at P142 million
a year. This can be explained by the higher prices
obtained for demersal species.
It should be emphasized, however, that these estimatesare based on available data from BAS and that BAS
limits itself to the collection of statistics for the first 30
most important commercial species.
Demersal species are closely linked to habitat
conditions, and more specifically to coral reefs. Climatechange impacts may result in population declines
due to loss of settlement habitat and erosion of
habitat structural complexity, while increased ocean
temperature will affect the physiological performanceand behavior of coral reef fishes and cause shifts inrecruitment patterns and reproduction. In extreme
cases, we may see the extinction of small-range
species.
vi. Coastal aquaculture (seaweeds and fishponds)
Production estimates for coastal aquaculture compriseabout 3, 000 tons from brackish water fishponds
and another 2, 000 MT from seaweeds. While notsignificant based on volume of production, seaweeds
provide livelihoods to wives of fishers and othercommunity members. Requiring relatively little capitaland with huge returns, seaweed aquaculture is touted
as a “poverty alleviation” tool by government.
In Calatagan, Batangas, Tambuyog (2005) analyzes thegrowth of, and issues related to, the seaweed industry.
Seaweed farming was introduced in Calatagan in 1971
from Zamboanga. At time of writing, there were around
1, 200 seaweed cultivators dispersed over five of the
19 coastal barangays, mainly concentrated in threebarangays: Barangay Uno, Dos, and Balitoc, but also in
Barangay Gulod and Barangay Carretunan. The current
numbers of seaweed farmers could not be confirmed,
but reports indicate that the practice still exists.
58

The monthly income from seaweed farming would
normally range from P8, 167 to P14, 672 assumingthat there were no typhoons or disease outbreaks toadversely affect production. These figures are higher
than the income from fishing, but as already mentioned,
the cost of labor is not fully included as seaweed
production is mainly a family enterprise. However, giventhat at least three production cycles can be completed
in one year, seaweed farming appears to be highly
profitable.
Seaweeds may be impacted by climate change due
to increasing sea surface temperatures and declining
water quality levels. Based on the observation by
Monzales, seaweeds farmed using bottomset methods
suffered almost unilaterally compared to those using
a floating system. Likewise, water quality and theabsence of pollutants provide an ideal environment forseaweeds.
Data obtained from the Calapan City Coastal
Environmental Profile indicate that brackish water
fishponds for bangus cover about one thousand
hectares with annual production of 2,000 MT (2005
statistics). With a productivity of about 2 tons ha-1, theestimated income per hectare of bangus fishpond isP200, 000 per hectare.
Tourism
Tourism in Verde Island Passage has traditionally been
limited to a few areas and activities within the entire
passage. Recreational activities are focused mainly on
the area’s natural attributes, many of which are marinebased. Increasing importance of tourism is the recent
trend that climate change may most affect.
There is no comprehensive profile for the tourism
sector that covers all areas within the Verde Island
Passage. What is presented in this study are initial data
sets on the tourism profile of the Passage from threesources, i.e., a) a start-up passage-wide profile froma workshop covering Lian, Mabini, Tingloy, Calatagan,
San Teodoro, Bauan, Calapan and Puerto Galera—all
tourism destination sites; b) information from a priorstudy confined to the Batangas side and with a detailed
profile provided for only one municipality, Mabini (wherescuba diving activities are concentrated); and c)
supplemental focused primary research, also in Mabini,to generate updated information on the economic
engagement of local communities.
This effort demonstrates how opportunistic data
accessed from agencies and representative sites orcase studies can be an appropriate approach when
initiating a vulnerability assessment. The choice of focus
area for the Verde Island Passage is only intended
to show how profiles in general can be used as anchapter 2

initial step for assessing overall vulnerability of the
tourism sector. The complete profile, and eventually thevulnerability assessment, will hopefully be undertaken
more comprehensively by the local stakeholders insucceeding workshops.
i. Important tourist activities and destinations
A profile of the marine tourism sector summarized inTable 29 shows that diving is the most popular activity
offered by resort owners. Puerto Galera and Mabini are
the main destinations, although a significant number ofdive spots are located in Tingloy as well. Lian is a major
destination for swimmers and picnic goers, as reflectedby the very large number of establishments for such
purposes. January to May is the peak season for mostrecreational activities, however in some areas, tourism isexperienced all year round.
Tourist traffic is high in Verde Island Passage, as
reflected by the estimated number of divers, swimmers,
and snorkelers. It would be beneficial to establish
a more accurate figure for monitoring purposes.
Nevertheless, the initial estimates are high enoughto classify Verde Island Passage as a major tourist
destination for coastal and marine recreational activities.

• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion

ii. Employment and revenues generated by tourism
Table 30 provides an indication of the employment
generated by marine tourism. As expected, boat
operators are very much in demand. These recreationalboat operators were former fisherfolk, validating thestatement that tourism complements conservation as
the sector provides alternative livelihood for locals,
providing opportunities to cease resource extractive or
environmentally destructive activities.
The exact share or contribution of marine tourism to
the total economy of Verde Island Passage could not
be ascertained in this project. It was agreed that thishas to be established with more data, and it would be
beneficial to determine how important the sector is inproviding income and employment to municipalities andprovinces, and to the country as a whole.
Only Mabini was able to provide figures on estimatedrevenue generated in the diving industry, which appear
to be highly significant to the local economy (Table 31).
Annual resort revenues are estimated to be PhP 88
million, and the sector contributes to local employment
valued at PhP 33 million and to local government’s
CRM revenues at PhP 1.3 million. This is a minimum

Table 29. Tourism profile in the Verde Island Passage, 2009.
				
Activities
Location

Number of		
establishments/		
units
SeasonWind Surfing

Puerto Galera

1

DivingPuerto Galera

50 +Number of
tourists
per year

Annualrevenues
in PhP

non-peak: rainy season

no data

all year round, except when there
are typhoons
Jan-May: high; Jun to Sep: low;
Oct-Dec: medium

350
Mabini-Tingloy:
20,000-22,000 divers

4.2M from boat rentals; 88M fromresorts; 1.2M unified divers’ fees

Jan-May: high; Jun to Sep: low;
Oct-Dec: medium
Jan-May: high; Jun to Sep: low;
Oct-Dec: medium

200/week during peakseasonMabini-Tingloy: 20,00022,000 divers

3900/day

Mabini

34

Bauan

5

Tingloy4

Calatagan
San Teodoro

11

Snorkeling

Bauan
Puerto Galera

2

Jan-May: high; Oct-Dec: medium

200/week
100,000

Swimming

Lian

800

all year round; peak season during
summer

50,000/day during peakseasonBoat Trips

Calatagan

Kayaking

Puerto Galera

10 establishments;
100 units

JetskiCalatagan
Puerto Galera

1
10 establishments;
20 units

1M unified divers’ fees

1

Calapan
Wakeboarding

Calatagan

Skim boarding

Puerto Galera

Banana boat

Mabini
Puerto Galera
Calapan1

all year round150

Source: Tourism Sector Workshop for the VA, Batangas City, 2009.

59

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Table 30. Employment generated in the marine tourism sector, Verde Island
Passage, 2009.

Table 31. CRM revenues in Mabini, 2003 to 2008.

			
Activities
Employment generated

Year

Type ofemployment

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
5-Year Average

Wind Surfing
DivingSnorkeling
Swimming
Boat Trips

Kayaking
JetskiWakeboarding
Skim boarding
Banana boatskilledskilledboat rental; instructors;
Puerto Galera: 345 boatmen (with membershipin the association); 125 diving instructors;
equipment rental
Mabini: boat rental; van rental

Number		of divers		Collected divefees (PhP)
225,000
1,000,510
1,677,750
1,350,000
1,130,300
1,150,000
1,299,894

2,225
10,005
16,778Source: Municipal Environment and Natural Resources Office, Mabini, Batangas.

boat operator; equipment rental
resort operation; boat rental; balsa
rental; lifesaver rental; other small-scale
entrepreneurship (sari-sari store, videoke
rental, vending of souvenir items and backyard
agricultural production)boat operation

also not included. Assuming a minimum amount oftransport expense of PhP 500 and food expenses at
PhP 500 per person, other tourist expenses could be in
the amount of PhP 12 million for scuba divers alone.

managerial
staff/helper

skilledIn the case of the Batangas portion of the Passage,
Tables 32 and 33 show that the types of tourist
attractions available confirm marine-based tourism
as an important attraction—with Nasugbu, Mabini,Tinglliy, and Lian being the coastal municipalities withthe most natural attractions. Beach and dive resorts(195 and 36, respectively) were the most common
tourist establishments with accommodations, among all
tourism establishments, as of 2004.

skilledPuerto Galera: 20 operators; equipment rental
kayak fare; boat operator

Source: Tourism Sector Workshop for the VA, Batangas City, 2009.

estimate, considering that real estate and income taxes
are not included in these estimates. More importantly,
other tourist expenses such as those for land and watertransport, food on-site and other related expenses are

Table 32. Tourist attractions in the Batangas portion of the Verde Passage MBCC, 2003 to 2004.
Tourist attractions
Municipality/						
cityhistoricalculturalreligious
festivals
naturalancestral
house

9
1

19
2

10
1

Batangas Study Area
BalayanBauan
CalacaCalatagan
LemeryLian
Mabini
Nasugbu
San Luis
Taal
Tingloy
Tuy

2

5
1
1
1

1
1

23

Total
68
5
2
3
1

1
1

3
5
10

3
5
10
8

6
1

2

2

34
5

16
4

Source: Provincial Tourism Office, Batangas.

Table 33. Tourist accommodations in the Batangas portion of the Verde Passage, MBCC, 2003 to 2004.
						
Municipality/
Dive
Beach
Island
Golf
Boat
city
resortresortresortclub
club

Hotel/restaurant/resort/lodge/
pension house/inn/apartelle/
convention-seminar center

195
9
14
30
7
24
7
65
28
5
5
1

31
6
5

Batangas Study Area
BalayanBauan
CalacaCalatagan
LemeryLian
Mabini
Nasugbu
San Luis
Taal
Tingloy
Tuy

36
4

26
1
3

Source: Provincial Tourism Office, Batangas.

60

2

4

3

1

Other
accommodations
4

3
1

1
2

2

1

5
3
3
6
1
2

1

1

Total
274
15
23
33
13
27
10
98
36
8
7
4

chapter 2

Most of the resorts were located in Mabini, followed by
Calaca and Nasugbu with peak occupancy during themonths of March to May and towards the Christmas
season from November to January.
The most common activity is scuba diving, narrowly
concentrated within the municipalities of Mabini andTingloy, and a few more dive sites and resorts in VerdeIsland (Table 34). Within the past two decades, Verde
Passage has consistently been increasing its popularity
as the premiere scuba diving destination in mainland
Luzon. A significant number of scuba divers andmarine recreationists have been flocking to the area,
as reflected in the increasing revenues collected from
diving entrance fees.
Verde Island is likewise being promoted as anotherdiving destination in the area. Although no primary data
is available, estimates have shown that a significant
number of divers have been visiting dive sites overthe past few years. These divers, however, are likely
to be the same divers going to dive sites in MabiniTingloy and Puerto Galera. There is only one resort
on the island, and most divers are billeted in tourism
establishments elsewhere. In 2004, between 1,000 and
2,000 divers visited Verde Island.
Table 34. Estimated number of divers in Verde Island, CY 2004.
Source of information
Revenues from Bgy. San
Agapito’s divers’ fees in PhP
Interview with Bgy. Chair of
San Agustin Kanluran
Dive Camp Resort

Estimated total number of divers
1,800 six months of a year
260 to 1,040 divers a year
720 to 1200 divers a month during peak months

Source: Rosales, R. 2005. Report on the Establishment of User Fees for Scuba Diving in Verde Island.

iii. Case Study: Updates in the tourism profile of
Mabini, Batangas
Mabini presents itself as a strategic location as far as
the tourism sector is concerned. Scuba diving is aprominent activity in the area. The coral reefs of Mabini
and Tingloy are favorite diving sites of both foreign andlocal divers who visit from Manila. At present, there are
39 dive sites scattered throughout the coastal watersof these two municipalities. Most sites (i.e., 23) arelocated in Tingloy, although tourist facilities are mostly
in Mabini.
As mentioned above, most tourist resorts in VerdeIsland Passage are located in this municipality. Out ofa total 24 resorts, 14 cater exclusively to divers, three
are for beach goers and swimmers, and seven cater toboth types of tourists (Table 35). Other types of waterbased activities offered by resorts include kayaking,banana boats, pedal boats, snorkeling, island hoppingand swimming. A few offer additional activities such as
game fishing, surfing, water skiing, and jet skiing.

• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion

Table 35. Resorts in Mabini Municipality, by Barangay, 2009.
Location
San Jose
LigayaSolo
San Teodoro
Bagalangit
Total

beach

Number of resorts
dive

1

2
3
4
5
14

2
3

both

Total

3
2
1

3
5
4
6
6
24

1
7

Source: Field interviews, June 2009.

Capacity for visitors is around 1,061 persons at any
point in time, based on the number of rooms available
for occupancy and the maximum capacity per room
(Table 36). The total does not include visitors who visit
during the day but do not spend the night at resorts.
Table 36. Number of rooms and maximum capacity in Mabini, by Barangay,
2009.
		
Location
Room capacity

Maximum visitor
capacity

15
59
89
85
88
336

San Jose
LigayaSolo
San Teodoro
Bagalangit
Total

62
191
334
243
231
1,061

Source: Field interviews, June 2009.

All resorts are located in the foreshore area of Mabini,with establishments ranging from a distance of lessthan one meter to 20 meters from the shoreline (Table
37). The big resorts are located in San Teodoro, while
the smaller ones are in Ligaya. The other barangays
have a mix of relatively large and relatively small resorts.
The total area occupied by tourist resorts is 26,875
square meters.
Table 37. Area occupied by tourist resorts, Mabini, June 2009.
Location
San Jose
LigayaSolo
San Teodoro
Bagalangit
Total

Farthest distancefrom shore (m)Nearest distancefrom shore (m)Area occupied(sq m)

10
5
20
15
10

<1
5
5
2.5
5

1,800
1,900
3,625
14,225
5,325
26,875

Source: Field interviews, June 2009.

Occupancy averages around 80 nights (1 night=
1 room occupied) per resort per year. The lowest
occupancy registered at 13, while the highest was at
247. This translates to an average of PhP3.835 million
per year, or PhP88.215 million in total revenues for
all resorts in a year (Table 38). Annual revenues per
resort ranged from a low of PhP104,400 to PhP36.386
million. Sixteen resorts had revenues above PhP one
million.

61

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Table 38. Occupancy and annual revenues, Mabini tourist resorts, June
2009.
Annual occupancy
Average number of nights per resort
Total number of nights for Mabini
Annual revenues
Average per resort, in PhP
Total for Mabini, in PhP

80
1,839
3,835,422
88,214,695

Source: Rosales, R. 2005. Report on the Establishment of User Fees for Scuba Diving in Verde Island.

Resorts employ a significant number of locals in theiroperations. There are around 342 locals working at
24 resorts, with an average of around 14 per resort(Table 39). Using certain assumptions on salaries paidby position, total employment was valued at PhP33.15
million annually, or an average of PhP1.381 million
per resort. Employment thus represents approximately
38% of total annual revenues, or 36% of averageannual revenues per resort. Other employment
opportunities related to tourism are not yet reflected
here. Employment in downstream industries may evenbe higher, such as provision of food on-site, land andwater transportation to, from and within Mabini, souvenir
making and selling and manufacture, trade and rental ofequipment used in water-based recreational activities.
Table 39. Employment status in Mabini resorts, June 2009.
Resort employment by type
Administrative
Housekeeping
KitchenLandscaping
Garbage disposal
Divers/dive masters
OthersTotal employment, 24 resorts
Average employment per resort
Total value of employment, 24 resorts, in PhP
Average value of employment per resort, in PhP

Number/amount
113
55
80
28
23
40
3
342
14
33,150,000
1,381,250

Source: Field interviews, June 2009.

Data on taxes paid by resorts to the local government
office of Mabini were not available for this report.
However, revenues collected from diving entrance
fees have shown a significant increase since thetime they was implemented in 2003 (Table 8). The
entrance fee system was introduced in 2002 to provide
funds for coastal resources management activities of
the LGU. Divers are mandated to pay PhP100 for aweekend dive in Mabini and Tingloy coral reefs. The
amount was based on a 2001 study that estimated therecreational value of scuba diving in the area. There
was a revenue shortfall in 2006, but this was due toproblems in collecting fees from divers, rather than asteep drop in the number of divers visiting Mabini. The
Municipal Environmental and Natural Resources Office(MENRO) has since instituted changes intended tomake collection methods more efficient. Using a fiveyear average between 2004 to 2008, close to 13,000
62

divers visited Mabini and Tingloy coral reefs annually,
generating an estimated PhP1.3 million in annual CRM
revenues.
Tourism is a sector with steadily increasing importanceas a revenue source and employment opportunity inthe Verde Island Passage. However, the regular repeat
divers and marine recreationists who generate incomes
will tend to sustain tourism costs only while themarine resources are in good condition, which makes
assessments of vulnerability to climate change bothurgent and important.
Foreshore development
As with tourism, profiling foreshore development in
the Verde Island Passage was needed to carry out
the vulnerability assessment as there was no available
data base. Hence, the framework for assessing thevulnerability of foreshore areas was applied by someof the participants coming from municipalities withsignificant infrastructure development in their respective
foreshore areas, i.e., Balayan-Batangas, CalataganBatangas, Bauan-Batangas, Nasugbu-Batangas,
Puerto Galera-Mindoro Oriental, and Naujan-Mindoro
Oriental.
To start from a profile of foreshore areas in the VerdeIsland Passage, participating municipalities in theworkshop group indicated the length of their coastlines(presented in Table 40). Nasugbu and Calatagan haverelatively long coastlines (60 and 48 km respectively),thus have larger areas for potential foreshoredevelopment than most of the other municipalities.
Infrastructuredevelopment inforeshore areas
has gone unabated
Location
Lengththroughout the years.
48 km
Calatagan
The majority of coastal
10 km
Puerto Galera
4 to 5 km
Bauan
municipalities have
25 km
Naujanroads that extend all the
60 km
Nasugbuway to their foreshore
11 km
Balayanareas, many of which
Source: Field interviews, June 2009.
are concrete (Table
41). Table 42 contains the number of municipalities
that have allowed bridges to be constructed, mostly inmunicipalities with relatively little coastline.
Table 40. Length of coastline, VerdeIsland Passage municipalities,
2009.

chapter 2

Table 41. Roads in foreshore areas.
Location
Calatagan
Puerto Galera
Bauan
NaujanNasugbuBalayanTable 45. Other buildings in foreshore areas.

Type/construction		materials used
Length3 rough, 4 concrete
10 rough to concrete
4 concreteroughconcrete• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion

Location
Calatagan

10 km
3 km
1 km
500 kmPuerto Galera

Bauan

Table 42. Bridges in foreshore areas.
Location

Type/construction		materials used
NumberCalatagan
Puerto Galera
Bauan
NaujanNasugbuBalayan0
3 concrete, 1 wooden
concreteconcrete, foot bridge
0
0

3
3
2

Settlements and other buildings abound in all coastal
areas in Verde Island Passage (as shown in Tables
43, 44, and 45). Meanwhile, some portions have beenused as public ports and docking areas for fishingboats (Tables 46 and 47). Only Calatagan has allotted
a portion for the establishment of fishponds (Table
48). Accurate figures for most of these indicators
could not be determined at the workshop, but there
was a consensus that there were too many manmade establishments located in foreshore areas. The
participants agreed that the very presence of all these
settlements and buildings were exacerbating coastal
erosion and pollution of their waters, thus alreadythreatening resources even without the onset of climatechange.
Table 43. Houses in foreshore areas.
Location
Calatagan
Puerto Galera
Bauan
NaujanNasugbuBalayanCalatagan
Puerto Galera
Bauan
NaujanNasugbuBalayanNasugbuBalayanseawalllighthouse
windbreakerreclaimed area

7
1
1
2

lighthouse
post lightreclaimed area
seawallchapelbarangay hall
day care centerbasketball court
baywalk
multipurpose hallseawall
stage
chapelschoolbasketball court
shorelights
barangay hallbarangay hallchapelmultipurpose hallseawallmultipurpose hallbarangay hall
PCG detachment
baywalk
seawall2

Areaoccupied

800 meters
100 m
50 m

2-3 ha

1
2
1
1
2

6
2
1
2 km
1

Table 46. Ports in foreshore areas.
Location
Calatagan
Puerto Galera
Bauan
NaujanNasugbuBalayanType/construction		materials used
NumberPPA
publicprivate, 1 public

13
8

public2

Type/construction		materials used
Numberconcrete and light materials
concrete and light materials
concretesemi-concrete
concrete to lightconcrete to light

11 barangays
500
12 barangays
200
50
2500

Table 44. Tourism establishments in foreshore areas.
Location

NaujanType/construction		materials used
Number

Type/construction		materials used
Numberconcreteconcrete, nipa
concrete 10, 5 small scalenipa 3, concrete 2
concrete 10, 5 small scaleconcrete 5, 25 small scale

12
600
15
5
15
30

Table 47. Docking facilities in foreshore areas.
Location
Calatagan
Puerto Galera
Bauan
NaujanNasugbuBalayanNumber ofboats dockedArea
occupiedfishing boats, speedboats (10)repair, dry docking; fishing, passenger
and tourist boats
fishing and passenger boats
fishing, passenger
fishingfishing

19 barangays

12 barangays
10 barangays
7 barangays
11 barangays

Table 48. Fish ponds in foreshore areas.
Location
Calatagan
Puerto Galera
Bauan
NaujanNasugbuBalayanNumber offish ponds

Area
occupied18
2 abandoned

250 ha2 ha

63

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Meanwhile, natural
resources could still befound in these foreshore
Location
Resources available
areas. Most of themangroves
Calataganparticipants proudly
beachclaimed the existencemangroves
Puerto Galera
white sandy beaches
of mangrove forests
beautiful bay
and sandy beaches,
beachesBauanmangroves
Naujanthe latter being usedsandy beachoften for local tourism
delta
and recreation. Table
hot springs
coves
Nasugbu
49 contains a summary
mangrovesof natural resourcesbeachesmangroves
Balayanfound in these coastal
beachesmunicipalities, althoughdelta
details on area coveredand species present could not be provided at theworkshop proper.
Table 49. Natural resources inforeshore areas.

The tables that detail the data to profile foreshore
structures and facilities is very preliminary but has
been included in the exercise (through inter-agency
workshops) to show that the kinds of data suggested
are neither well reported nor monitored, and will
therefore require creative ways to generate thisinformation. Lack of management mechanisms limits
the ability to assess vulnerability. However, local
government units can be encouraged to carry out interagency coordination in baselines and monitoring, which
would allow a full vulnerability assessment in the future.

Vulnerability assessment of humanwell-being
Climate change impacts on the fisheries
sector in the Verde Island Passage and thesector’s responses

Climate change disrupts fisherfolk’s livelihood when fish
breeding and spawning seasons and habitats, fish runs
and migration paths are altered. Starting with a profileof the fisheries sector, a two-step process was used toestimate the vulnerability of fishing activities to climatechange.
The first step was to derive a Socio-Economic
Vulnerability Index (SEVI) given a listing of parameters:i) incomes levels; ii) sectoral importance; iii) sociocultural attachment to activity; iv) diversity of livelihood
options; and, v) dependency of activity on coastal
habitat.
• Income levels: Incomes are negatively affectedby declining production levels, declining prices,
and increased operational costs. Poverty thresholdlevels were used as benchmarks and income
vulnerability was a measure of the possible64

divergence of income levels from this threshold.
Annual per capita poverty thresholds estimatedby the National Statistical Coordination Board(NSCB) for Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, andOriental Mindoro were P16,615, P12,564, andP14,330, respectively, with income estimates forthe municipal and commercial sectors summarizedin Table 50.
Table 50. Average per capita incomes of commercial and municipal
fishers, by province, based on fisheries production value, 2005-2007.

Province
Batangas
Occidental Mindoro
Oriental Mindoro

Average income ofcommercial fishers(in thousand PhP)

Average income ofmunicipal fishers(in thousand PhP)

43.97521.65126.16412.2645.683
6.613• Sectoral importance: relative to the contribution
to production, food security, and employment
generation, the sector is highly vulnerable whencontribution to either of these parameters is high.
• Socio-cultural attachment to activity: when
activity is not only economic but social as well;difficulty in shifting to an alternative is greater.
• Diversity of livelihood option: based on
information culled from reports, this measured
the extent to which the individual (and his/her household) relied solely on fishing activity.
If alternative livelihood options are meager,
vulnerability is higher.
• Dependency levels on coastal habitats: notquantitatively measured in this study, but an
opportunity to employ an in-depth analysis exists
given data on species caught; where fishing activity
occurs (in or near coastal habitats); and type ofgear used.
Each parameter was given a rating of Low, Medium,or High based on the best available information, andconverted numerically thereafter (1=low; 2=medium,and 3=high). For example, in the case of income
vulnerability, the rating was HIGH if the estimated or
perceived income was lower than the poverty threshold.
Any intermediate scores such as Low to Medium or
Medium to High were scored as a half point score,such that Low to Medium was given a score of 1.5, forexample.
A simple average was then computed to derive a
Socio-Economic Vulnerability Index (SEVI). The
summary indices provide a general indication ofvulnerabilities for the entire Verde Island Passage basedon the parameters selected (Table 51).

chapter 2• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion

Table 51. Summary socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) matrix for fisheries in the Verde Island Passage.
			
IncomeSectoralType of fishinglevelsimportanceSocial/culturalattachment
to activity

Diversity of
livelihood
optionDependency
levels on coastal
habitats

SEVI

Aquarium fishers
Municipal fishing: demersals, coral reef fish
Commercial fishing: demersals, coral reef fish
Coastal aquaculture (seaweeds)
Coastal aquaculture (ponds)
Small pelagics fishing, municipal
Small pelagics fishing, commercial
Tuna fisheries (municipal)
Tuna fisheries (commercial)high (3)low to medium (1.5)
low to medium (1.5)
medium to high (2.5)
low (1)low (1)low (1)low (1)low (1)high (3)low to medium (1.5)
low to medium (1.5)
medium to high (2.5)
low (1)low (1)low (1)low (1)low (1)high (3)high (3)high (3)medium to high (2.5)
high (3)medium to highmedium to highmedium to highmedium to highmedium to high (2.4)
medium to high (2.4)
medium to high (2.1)
medium to high (2.4)
low (1.7)
medium (2.1)
low (1.7)
medium (2.1)
low (1.7)

medium (2)high (3)low to medium (1.5)
low to medium (1.5)
low (1)high (3)low (1)high (3)low (1)low (1)high (3)high (3)high (3)medium to high (2.5)
high (3)high (3)high (3)high (3)From a purely socio-economic perspective, therefore,
the most vulnerable fishing activities are aquarium
fishing, municipal fishing for demersals and coral reef
fish, and coastal aquaculture. Aquarium fishing ishighly dependent on coastal habitats (coral reefs), is
a community activity, and is practiced in communities
with few livelihood options. These factors influenced thevulnerability ratings, despite the relatively high incomes(low income vulnerability) and minimal contribution to
the economy. Municipal fishing for demersals and coral
reef fish also rated high due to the low incomes offishers (therefore, High vulnerability), high importancein terms of employment and food security, and highdependency on resource.
The second step was to arrive at the assessed impact
of climate change on coastal habitats associatedwith particular kinds of fishing activities, to be used
as a biophysical overlay. This was achieved throughan assessment by experts on the status of fisheries
based on accessed data, consultations and workshops.
Scoring for the biophysical overlay followed theprocedure to get the SEVI. The result was thenaveraged out with the SEVI to arrive at a Climate
Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) as in Table 52.
Table 52. Summary climate change vulnerability index (CCVI) matrix forfisheries in the Verde Island Passage.

Type of fishing

Climate change
impact to associatedcoastal habitat

SEVI

CCVI

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

2.4
2.4
2.1
2.4
1.7
2.1
1.7
2.1
1.7

2.7
2.7
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.3
2.1
2.3
2.1

Aquarium fishers
Municipal fishing: demersals, coral reef fish
Commercial fishing: demersals, coral reef fish
Coastal aquaculture (seaweeds)
Coastal aquaculture (ponds)
Small pelagics fishing, municipal
Small pelagics fishing, commercial
Tuna fisheries (municipal)
Tuna fisheries (commercial)

Overall vulnerability assessment
Following the suggested methodology, the vulnerabilityof the fisheries sector was then assessed.
i. Aquarium fishing: HIGHLY VULNERABLE
Aquarium fishing was found to be HIGHLY
VULNERABLE to climate change because income
vulnerability ranged from Medium to High, there
was high dependence of coral reef conditions andbiodiversity of fish, which was in turn related tobiophysical processes likely affected by increasing sea
surface temperature. Income levels were also expected
to be negatively impacted by increasing operationalcosts (e.g., travel to farther distances and inability tostay in the water for long hours especially during bad
weather). Social attachment to activity was HIGH
especially in the case of Barangay San Andres. It wasalso observed that in Barangays in Looc and Lubang
where this is practiced, the communities are highly
integrated. With respect to its sectoral importance,
aquarium fishing has low vulnerability due to the small
number of fishers involved and minimal impact on foodsecurity.
Assuming the most conservative income for the “manomano” fisher, i.e., P4,600 per month, and further
assuming that a household consists of five individuals
including the fisher himself, the annual per capita
income was estimated at P11,040, lower than thepoverty threshold for all three provinces. If the incomesused were on the higher side, i.e., P12,000, the poverty
threshold levels are attained for all provinces. For thispaper, we assumed the more optimistic approach
where, the vulnerability with respect to income wasscored as MEDIUM, i.e., an average of the conservative
estimate and the high-end estimate.
There was also HIGH vulnerability with respect todiversity of livelihood options due mainly to the relative
isolation of the fishing communities (especially during
typhoon months), and lack of opportunities in the
trade and service sectors. This was more pronounced
in the case of Verde Island and Looc, where farming
opportunities are not as numerous as in Lubang.
65

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

ii. Tuna fisheries: VULNERABLE
At least 15% of fisheries production in all threeprovinces consisted of tuna (skipjack, yellowfin, and bigeye). For the last three years from 2005 to 2007, thethree provinces collectively caught, on average, 6,000
MT a year valued at P400 million pesos,. Data from
BAS indicated that Batangas province earns about
P180 million per year, consistent with the findings ofSoliman (unpublished manuscript) that together, Mabini
and Tingloy fisheries have a value of P172 million(including demersals).
Since both municipal and commercial sectors exploit
the tuna fisheries, the disaggregation of volume
and value was done by determining the percentage
contribution of the two sectors to total production. In
Verde Island Passage, the ratio of tuna catch is 1:4 withthe municipal sector contributing 25% of production.
In terms of value, the municipal sector earns about P32
million compared to P95 million for the commercial
sector.
Municipal tuna fisheries were found to be more
vulnerable to climate change than commercial fisheries(Table 6). Income from municipal fishers contributed
to less than half of the poverty threshold especiallyin Mindoro—even assuming that municipal fishing
exploited tuna, small pelagics and demersal fisheries.
Shifting of tuna aggregations to deeper waters will
not bode well for the municipal sector and incomesare bound to decline even further as operational costs
increase. The commercial sector will be better able toaccommodate these changes in tuna behavior. Being amigratory species, tuna may not be directly influenced
by habitat conditions; however, impacts on the foodchain due to changing biophysical conditions, andgenerally, on food availability for tuna poses a larger
potential issue.
Tuna is an important food fish and substantial numbersof people depend on tuna for livelihood; thus, it was
found to be highly vulnerable in terms of its contribution
to the economic sector. There was a lack of data tosuggest that tuna fishing approximates a social activityor that tuna fishers are not engaged in other forms of
livelihood but we assumed that vulnerability was low
due to general engagement of fishers in other economic
activities such as trade, services, and other seasonal
employment (especially in Batangas province).
The SEVI for tuna was on the low side; however, when
the climate change impacts were considered, the CCVI
showed that tuna are mildly vulnerable due to potentialchanges in tuna behavior.

66

iii. Small pelagics: VULNERABLE
Due to its contribution to fisheries production in the
Verde Island Passage and food security, the small
pelagics fishery is highly vulnerable to climate change
impacts. Incomes of municipal fishers may be taken as
similar to that of tuna fisheries; thus, municipal fishers
are vulnerable due to lower incomes.
Small pelagic fish are known to react to changes intemperature and this may well be happening in VerdeIsland Passage where temperatures have increased,on average, by about 4ºC. As in tuna fisheries, we
assume that this fishery does not constitute a social
activity and that other forms of livelihood are gaining
importance in the aggregation of household income. In
Bauan, Batangas, for example, focus group discussion
participants reported that currently only 50% of thecommunity are fishers as opposed to 80-90% fifty
years ago. This indicates the broadening of income
sources in the province, which may not yet be true for
the Mindoro provinces. As with tuna, the SEVI of small
pelagics indicates a low socio-economic vulnerability;
however, when coupled with climate change impacts,
the CCVI shows a higher index.
iv. Demersals: VULNERABLE
Production trends in the demersal fishery mirror thepattern of exploitation. Demersal fisheries tend to beoverexploited first and this is the case for the VerdeIsland Passage fisheries. Production levels are below
10,000 MT per year and the threat posed by climatechange is high because of the high dependence
of demersal species on coral reef and soft bottom
communities.
As in the case of small pelagics, municipal fishers are
more vulnerable than commercial fishers due to alreadylow incomes but also due to their inability to adapt bychanging gear or by mechanization. The assumptions
pertaining to social activity and diversity of options are
the same as for small pelagics and tuna.
v. Seaweeds: VULNERABLE
Seaweeds resulted in a Medium to HIGH SEVI due
to its economic importance, its role as an alternative
livelihood provider for women, and its dependence
on water quality conditions. When climate change
impacts are overlain on the socio economic vulnerability
for seaweeds, the CCVI shows an increase due tothe dependency of seaweed culture on water quality
conditions and observations that an increase in sea
surface temperature may have negative impacts onbottom farming of seaweeds.
vi. Fishponds: LOW VULNERABILITY
Fishponds are more vulnerable to coastal inundationand decrease in water especially during dry seasons;chapter 2

The MPA Network formation in the Verde Island
Passage has exerted peer pressure on othermunicipalities to conserve their marine resources. An
enforcement strategy has been institutionalized at theprovincial and nine coastal areas in the formation of
the Bantay Dagat Baywatch Network. This network
is composed of eight municipalities and one city.
There are 280 members and about 75% are active.
Bantay Dagat network meets on a monthly basis.
Encroachment of commercial fishers in municipal
waters reduced since the MPA and Bantay Dagat
network was formed. In 2008, 11 cases filed in courtthat reached a resolution.
All 25 MFARMCs are organized and there are 4
IFARMCs located in Balayan Bay, Batangas Bay, Taal
Lake, and Tayabas Bay.

Climate change impacts on the tourism
sector in the Verde Island Passage and thesector's responses

Natural coastal and marine resources for tourism
activities that could potentially be effected include
foreshore areas dedicated to tourism, coral reefs used
for scuba diving and snorkeling, as well as hotels andlodging facilities. The framework for the vulnerability
assessment is summarized in Figure 45, showing how
biophysical impacts are related to socio-economic
impacts in the tourism sector. As measures of exposure,

DEGREE OFPROTECTION OF
THE REEF
PERCENT OFHEALTHY REEF

LOCATION

nts of dimensi
ons
pone
com
REEF

ns of vulnera
nsio
bii
ty
me
di

SEA LEVEL
RISE

INCREASE IN
SEATEMPERATURE

OCEANCONDITIONS

U

SE

RE

SPECIESPRESENTEXTENSION

N
REEF
PREFERENCES

VULNERABILITYINTENSITY

DIVERSITY

REEF

ITY
TIV
SI

Collaborative efforts among the three signatories
were enhanced through existing mechanisms (e.g.,Strategic Environmental Management Plan and
Batangas Integrated Environmental Council). VerdeIsland Passage marine conservation program is
integrated in the SEMP. The eight municipalities andone city included in the MPA network are Bauan, Lobo,
Calatagan, Balayan, Tingloy, Nasugbu, San Juan,
Mabini and Batangas City. However, the stakeholders
in Calatagan do not have an integrated coastalmanagement policy for their municipality.

ure of components
meas

OS

Assessment of adaptive capacity
Integrated Coastal Management, or Coastal Resource
Management, and conservation efforts have been
started in the Verde Island Passage. An MPA Network
covering nine LGUs has been formed in partnershipwith LGU, PGENRO, WWF and other sectors/groups.
CI, WWF-Philippines, and the provincial governmentof Batangas signed a tri-partite memorandumof agreement that formalized the mechanics ofcooperation among the organizations.

hazards that pertain to the biophysical climate change
indicators are storm frequency and/or intensity, increase
in sea surface temperature causing coral bleaching,or accelerated sea level rise. Measures of sensitivity,
meanwhile, are related to the type and status of reefs
and numbers of tourists as reef-dependent activities
attract the most tourists.

EXP

thus, the CCVI was low. Its SEVI is also on the low side
due to the relatively low income vulnerability associatedwith aquaculture and the availability of livelihood options
for owners and employees of fishpond establishments.

• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion

TOURISTSSTORMSFREQUENCYDENSITY OF
TOURISTSA DA P TIV E
CA PA C IT Y
MANAGERIAL

INSTITUTIONALSUPPORTEDUCATIONCONSERVATIONPROJECTSTECHNOLOGICAL
DIVERSIFICATIONOF ACTIVITIESMANAGEMENTVISITORS NUMBERS(CARRYINGCAPACITY)

TYPE OFTOURISTPROTECTION(MARINE RESERVE)ARTIFICIALREEFRESEARCH &MONITORINGPROJECTS

Fig. 45. Framework that was used to guide the vulnerability
assessment.

For the assessment of the indicators that measure thedifferent vulnerability components, a scoring system
can be developed in collaboration with stakeholders,building on existing knowledge and data
With data from the created profile, the vulnerability
assessment with inter-agency workshop participants
concluded that the tourism industry is threatened byclimate change as it can potentially destroy touristattracting natural resources. Coastal municipalities
of Batangas, Lubang, and Puerto Galera will lose
revenues and employment opportunities in such an
event. Reef-dependent scuba diving and snorkeling are
the activities that will be most greatly affected by the
first two scenarios. In these cases, some recreational
areas of the Verde Island Passage will be more
vulnerable than others, i.e., scuba diving and snorkelinglocations will be more negatively affected. In particular,
the local economies of Mabini, Tingloy, Bauan, andPuerto Galera may suffer as climate change impacts
increase.
On the other hand, the third scenario is projected toaffect all tourism activities as tourists will obviously
67climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

adjust their schedules and destination choices inplaces that have less potential of being hit by storms
and extreme weather events. Should the third scenario
occur, local income and employment will be negatively
affected in all tourism sites. Following is a summaryof potential responses indicated by the workshop
participants.
Scenario A: increase in sea surface temperature (SST)
Increase in sea surface temperature causes coralbleaching, making the activity less attractive to divers
and snorkelers
No effect on the other tourism activities
Scenario B: accelerated sea level rise (ASLR)
Causes poor turbidity, reduced photosynthesis andchlorophyll production/coral drowningLess interest/appreciation for snorkelers
Divers will have to go deeper underwater to see thecorals; will have to exert more effort and additional cost;
will involve higher risk for divers
Positive impact: beneficial to some corals; will be
undisturbed
No effect on the other tourism activities
Scenario C: increase in frequency and intensity of
typhoons (STORMINESS)
Tourism facilities are damaged; additional construction
costs for renovation and repair
Increase in unemployment and underemployment
Decreased livelihood opportunities
Less revenue collection
Destruction of the natural and man-made resources
No tourism activities in the presence of typhoons
Overall vulnerability assessment
Based on the above scenarios and the potential
impacts on the tourism sector, the participants ranked
the impacts and assigned scores to determine theoverall vulnerability due to climate change. For eachclimate projection with high likelihood of occurrence,vulnerability was assessed in terms of exposure andsensitivity (1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High). Table 53
provides a summary of the scores.

Reef-dependent tourism activities are clearly themost vulnerable, in contrast with those that are notdependent of reef condition.
Assessment of adaptive capacity
Methodology for the tourism sector was extended to theassessment of adaptive capacity. Participants ranked
the capacities of the municipal and provincial levels ofgovernment, both of which have distinct mandates tomanage the tourism sector of Verde Island Passage.
Indicators were determined based on the participants’knowledge of management requirements to fulfill theirmandates.
The Information, Education and Communication(IEC ) indicator refers to production and distributionof information materials as well as workshops andgeneral assemblies for information dissemination
purposes. Policies refer to local ordinances, MOUs andenvironmental management plans formulated at the
local level. Management bodies indicate the numberof councils and organizations formed in addressing
environmental issues related to the tourism sector. LGU
and NGO partnerships reflect the number of active
government agencies, private foundations and NGOsin environment-related programs, while stakeholder
partnerships include people’s organizations andlocal interest groups formed for the same purpose.
Community involvement refers to environmental projects
affecting tourism that involve community participation,e.g., giant clam seeding, MPA establishment, mangrove
reforestation, abalone culture and coastal clean-ups.
Finally the last indicator is not specifically amanagement indicator; however it refers to theperceived resiliency and adaptive capacity of natural
resources and ecosystems to climate change, basedon their reported status and health. Using the rating
scheme of 1=Low (High), 2=Medium, 3=High (Low)vulnerability (capacity), Table 54 contains the perceived
adaptive capacity of VIP in responding to climatechange impacts in the tourism sector.
Table 54. Adaptive capacity assessment in the tourism sector of the VerdeIsland Passage, 2009.

Table 53. Vulnerability assessment in the tourism sector, Verde Island
Passage, 2009.

Management
indicator

Activity/climatechange impact

IEC
Policies
Management body
LGU-NGO
partnerships
Stakeholder
partnerships/POs
Community
involvement
Natural resourcesWind Surfing
DivingSnorkeling
Swimming
Boat Trips
Kayaking
JetskiWakeboarding
Skim boarding
Banana boat

68

Sea surface
temperature

Accelerated sea
level rise

Storminess

1
3
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

1
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1

3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3

Statuspresence absence inadequate

Score
municipal provincial

x

2
2
2

2
2
2

x

1

1

x

2

2

3
2

2
2

x
x

x
x

chapter 2

Climate change impacts on the foreshore
areas in Verde Island Passage and thesector's responses

Similar to the effects of climate change on the tourism
sector, three climate change scenarios were discussed
as potentially affecting foreshore areas, namely:
increase in sea surface temperature, accelerated
sea level rise, and increased frequency and intensityof typhoons (storminess). Participants believed that
increase in sea surface temperature would not have any
impact on man-made structures located in foreshore
areas. Potentially heavy damages may arise when
accelerated sea level rise and storminess occur. Manyof these structures, particularly settlements and tourism
facilities, are made of light materials that can easily
be washed out or destroyed during strong storms.
Accelerated sea level rise and storminess may cause
severe damage to natural resources as well, particularly
sandy beaches. These climate change scenarios could
intensify coastal erosion, which is already happening
due to the unabated infrastructure development inforeshore areas. Some municipalities have put up
sea walls to prevent further damage to their coastline
infrastructure facilities. Although these structures may
prevent damages in the short-run, participants agreed
that they could exacerbate coastal erosion, further
damaging foreshore areas in the long-run. Table 55
summarizes the workshop discussions on potential
impacts of climate change on foreshore areas of the
Verde Island Passage.
Overall vulnerability assessment
Based on the above scenarios and the potential
impacts on foreshore areas, the participants ranked
the impacts and assigned scores to determine theoverall vulnerability due to climate change. For eachclimate projection with high likelihood of occurrence,vulnerability was assessed in terms of exposure andsensitivity (1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High). Table 56
provides a summary of the scores.
In terms of adaptive capacity, participants ranked thecapacities of the municipal, provincial and national
levels of government in managing foreshore areas of
Verde Island Passage as highly vulnerable. Indicators
were determined based on the participants’ knowledgeof management requirements to fulfill their mandates.
It was noted that municipal and provincial LGUs were
not authorized to manage their foreshore areas, as this
responsibility still rests with the national government.
Granting of Foreshore Lease Agreements is still within
the mandate of the Department of Environment andNatural Resources. Meanwhile, the Bureau of Fisheries
and Aquatic Reforms, which in turn is under the
Department of Agriculture, is the agency authorized
to approve and issue Fishpond Lease Agreements,• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion

Table 55. Climate change impacts on foreshore areas in the Verde Island
Passage.
Climate change
projection

Impacts onnatural resources

Impacts on
man-made structures

Increase in
sea surface
temperature

warming can cause coralbleaching and drowning

•

none

Accelerated sea
level rise (ASLR)

coastal erosion••

infrastructure damage;infrastructure and natural
resources are highly exposed;materials and design of buildings
and houses are not adapted tosea level rise;
sea walls: barriers to sea level
rise;
foreshore area highly sensitive
to ASLR, because of historical
trends of foreshore development•••

Increased storm
frequency andintensity

coastal erosion

•
•
•

•
•

•
•

infrastructure damage
infrastructure and natural
resources are highly exposedmaterials and design of buildings
and houses are not adapted tostorm surges
sea walls: exacerbate coastal
erosionforeshore area highly sensitive
to storm surges, because ofhistorical trends of foreshoredevelopment
deterioration of sea walls: debris
get washed out, causing pollution
transports seasonal waste fromone coastal area to another;causes solid waste pollution onforeshore areas

Table 56. Vulnerability assessment in foreshore areas of the Verde Island
Passage, 2009.
Climatechange impact

Coastal asset
exposed

Exposure

Sensitivity

Sea surface temperature
Accelerated sea level risenone
infrastructuremangrovesbeaches/covesdelta
hot springs
infrastructuremangrovesbeaches/covesdelta
hot springs

0
3
1
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
2

0
3
1
3
3
2
3
1
3
3
3

Storminess

which may be located within foreshore areas of coastal
municipalities.
Clearly, there is a lot of confusion and discord thatcan be created at the local level. As one participantof the workshop noted in plenary, management ofboth municipal lands and municipal waters has been
devolved to LGUs, but foreshore area management isstill within the mandate of national government. In effect,
municipal and provincial LGUs consider themselves as
having a very low adaptive capacity to climate change,
simply because they do not have the mandate to carry69

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

out adaptation and mitigation plans in foreshore areas.
Using the rating scheme of 1=Low (High), 2=Medium,
3=High (Low) vulnerability (capacity), Table 57 contains
the perceived adaptive capacity of Verde Island
Passage in responding to climate change impacts inforeshore areas.

USAID’s Guidebook is a very useful reference insetting the scope of the assessment. The matrix below
provides a summary of the threats affecting mariculture
and affected freshwater resources as a source ofincome and food, human settlements, health, andconflict situations.
Following the guidebook, absent or incomplete
baselines for the vulnerability assessment werefirst addressed in the project through appropriately
prioritized agency data sources such as physicalframework and development plans, socio-economic
profiles, health reports, disaster records andinfrastructure plans. These were accessed but re-readwith a climate-sensitive perspective. Reconstructive
data, based on experiences and observations, wasseparately done through interviews with technical staff
with coastal residents. Multi-agency workshops for
systematic consolidation and validation followed (Table
58).

Table 57. Adaptive capacity assessment in foreshore areas of the VerdeIsland Passage, 2009.
Capacityrequirements
IEC
Policy formulation and implementation
Management bodies
LGU-NGO partnerships
Community involvement
Disaster preparedness

Municipal
level

Provinciallevel

National
level

3
3
3
3
3
3

3
3
3
3
3
3

3
2
3
3
3
3

Climate change impacts on the people’s
health and safety in Verde Island Passage
and the sector’s responses

Vulnerability assessment of health and safety
The climate change impacts from more frequent strong
typhoons and the consequent intensified flooding, will
potentially have large effects on livelihood and qualityof life in settlements. (Note: vulnerability assessment ofeffects on livelihood is covered in the earlier sections.)
Sea level rise is not yet seen by many people as a resultof global warming/climate change. Unfortunately, effects

Water- and vector-borne diseases, destruction of
infrastructure in human settlements, loss of incomes,
and even loss of lives, because of extreme weather
events (sea surface temperature and storminess),flooding, and accelerated sea level rise, command large
scale institutional response. Vulnerability assessment toaid adaptation is indeed expedient now.

Table 58. Climate change threats to coastal communities.
SectorClimate change impacts

Mariculture

sea surface temperature increases;
environmental changes e.g., salinity, precipitation levels,seasonality;changes in weather patterns and extreme weather events

Climate change threats
•
•
•

•

unpredictable changes in culture productivity;
increase stress and vulnerability to pathogens and parasites in cultured organisms;
overall decline in ocean productivity reduces supplies of wild fish used for fish meal formariculture;
reduce productivity and disrupted operations (loss of infrastructure and stock) due to extreme
weather events;
loss of income and investments•

Freshwater
resources

encroachment of saltwater into the water table, estuaries
and coastal rivers;
waves and storm surges reaching further inland;decreased precipitation

•
•
•
•

saltwater intrusion of freshwater sources;
increased saltwater intrusion, exacerbating water supply problems;
contamination of water supply sources during flooding and coastal inundation;lack of potable water during extreme weather events

Human settlements

increasing coastal inundation;
sea level rise raising water levels during storm surge;
erosion, and extreme weather events••

Human healthchanging weather patterns;
extremely hot periods

more inland relocation;
houses, buildings and infrastructure damage from increasing coastal storm intensity and flood
exposure;
reduced clearance under bridges;
overtopping of coastal defense structures;degradation of natural coastal defense structures

Conflict

coastal land loss due to sea level rise

•
•
•
•
•
•
•

injuries, illness, and loss of lives due to extreme weather events;
malnutrition, water and food shortages during extreme events;
heat stress from extremely hot periods;
increased spread of vector-borne disease (dengue fever and malaria), waterborne diseases(diarrhea) and toxic algae (ciguatera)•••

coastal land and resource scarcity or loss, and human migration;
resource and water use conflicts due to scarcity;
population migration to urban areas as ocean productivity and food availability declines andfishers are displaced;disruption of peace and order situation•
Source: Adapted from the USAID Guidebook for Development Planners: Adapting to Coastal Climate Change.

70chapter 2

on health and food safety are the least recognized.
Hence, with the focus on human health and safety
in the coastal environment, vulnerability indicators
recommended include the following:• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion

or town center, as basis of Flood-prone Index A withscores from 1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High vulnerability.

• flood-prone area;• climate change effects on health and diseases thatare water-, vector-, rodent- and food-borne as well
as extreme temperature-related; and,• climate change-ready physical infrastructure fordisaster and risk management and ecosystembased water supply system (distribution), drainage
and sanitation.
i. Flood-prone area: VULNERABLE
A Flood-prone Index with scores from 1=Low,
2=Medium, 3=High vulnerability is a suggested tool.
As a case study, flood prone areas in all municipalities
on the Batangas side of the Verde Island Passage thathost hundreds of thousands of people are categorized
into the following:• Category 1: Almost flooded as a result of heavy
rains aggravated by high tide or rise in water level or
nearby seas, lakes, rivers, etc.
• Category 2: Flooded only after several days ofheavy and continuous rains with subsequent rise inwater level or lakes, seas, dikes, rivers and canals• Category 3: Flooded only after several days of
exceptionally heavy or continuous rains.
• Category 4: Never experienced flood but present
environmental condition in the area warrant LGU’sconcern on flood, flash flood, land slides and mud
slides.
• Category 5: Residential areas, national andprovincial road networks prone to landslide andmudslides.

Flood-prone Index A was customized to rank
municipalities where they are most vulnerable toflooding under Category 1 and 2 only (rains withsubsequent rise in sea water level or near seas, dikes
other waterways in coastal areas). The following
among the province-wide Batangas side of the Verde
Passage had the greatest number of communities andpopulation exposed to floods aggravated by water level
rise: Nasugbu (37 out of 42 barangays) and Calatagan(20 out of 25 barangays) with a vulnerability rating of
3 (high), followed by Lian (10 of 19), Bauan (16 out of40) and Lemery (18 out of 46 barangays) with a ratingof 2 (medium).
Focusing on only the coastal areas in thesemunicipalities to emphasize marine adaptation toclimate change, an adjusted Flood-prone Index B (only
for the scaled down area) gives Calatagan and Tingloy(for its size) a score of 3 (Table 60). They are highly
vulnerable to flooding where it is most likely to happen
and where they have the greatest number of coastal
barangays, although Calatagan, Nasugbu, Lemery and
San Juan have the largest exposed population.
Testing the use of the Flood-prone Index in the rest of
Verde Island Passage provinces would be beneficial toexpand the vulnerability assessment.

This scale indicates vulnerability ranges from highest(Category 1) to lowest (Category 4 and 5). Table
59 summarizes the vulnerable population across all
barangays, whether located in the interior sections
Table 59. Vulnerable population in selected flood-prone municipalities, Batangas-wide.

Municipality
LemeryLian
BalayanCalatagan
Nasugbu
Bauan
Lobo
Tingloy
MabiniSan Juan
Total

Category 1
barangays
pop.
12
5
13
5
11
3
none
2
none
none
51

Category 2
barangays
pop.

16,5592,651
18,501
10,20628,876
5,032
none
5,400
none
none
87,225

6
5
3
15
26
13
5
2
2
8
85

7,041
1,925
23,03225,81953,013
21,530
5,351
400
2,608
15,557156,276

Category 3
barangays
pop.
4
1
8
none
26
none
3
2
none
8
26

5,134
288
21,463
none
53,013
none
5,284
1,200
none
14,70748,076

Category 4
barangays pop.
none
1
4
1
2
1
11
none
2
18
40

none
288
6,218
1,581
3,168
491
9,279
none
3,374
27,71952,118Category 5
barangays
pop.
4
1
none
none
none
none
5
1
none
none
11

4,202
296
none
none
none
none
7,332
1000
none
none
12,830Total
population
32,936
5,448
69,21437,60685,057
27,05327,246
8,000
5,982
57,98335,525

Note: number of flood-prone barangays across all categories is not cumulative.
Source: Provincial Disaster Coordinating Office, Batangas, 2009.

71

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Table 60. Flood-prone index, coastal municipalities in Batangas.

Municipality
Balayan
Bauan
Calatagan
LemeryLian
Lobo
Mabini
Nasugbu
San Juan
Tingloy
Total population
along the VIP

Total
number ofbarangays
48
40
25
46
19
26
34
42
42
15

Number of		barangays		Cat. 1, 2
Percentage
16
16
20
18
10
5
2
37
8
4

33
40
80
39
52
19
6
88
19
26

579

Population
vulnerable toflooding

Floodprone
index-A

41,533
26,562
36,02523,600
4,576
5,351
2,608
81,88915,557
5,800

1
2
3
2
2-3
1
1
3
1
1

Barangay		
along		VIPPercentage

Population
along
VIP

Floodprone
index-B
1
1
2-3
1
1
2
2
1
2
3

11
10
16
13
6
10
13
7
15
15

22.91
25.00
64.00
28.26
31.58
38.46
38.24
16.67
35.71
100.0020,87324,34834,43327,14919,114
18,58920,61629,48826,537
18,54815226.25

358,518

ii. Climate change-related diseases and effects on
health: VA for integration in the institutional framework
With exposure to flooding because of storminess andaccelerated sea level rise or because of increased
sea surface temperature, the presence or absence,
magnitude and trending of the following direct effects
on health are aspects that require inclusion in the
climate change adaptation framework, policies, andplans for the sector:• Natural disasters cause injuries, illness, loss of life.
• Heat stress is experienced from extremely hot
periods.
• Health and food service delivery is disrupted due
to damage to infrastructures, roads and bridges.
Malnutrition and food shortages during extreme
events are experienced.
• There is increased emotional and psychologicalstress due to calamities and loss of livelihood.

• diseases that are temperature-related, water andfood-borne, vector- and rodent-borne;• effects of food and water shortages;• extreme temperature-related health effects; and,• mental, nutritional, infectious health effects.

As an added dimension, the assessment can be carriedout according to geographic scope, population andtemporal scale when dealing with infection and reduced
access to basic services. Systematic documentationand monitoring of health and safety aspects, even if
qualitatively, will guide responses in adaptation. These
are the next steps to be pursued to complete the full
vulnerability assessment.

Following the example of the Flood-prone Index, theimpacts on health and safety can also be used withscores of 1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High vulnerability tomainstream adaptation. Below are health implicationsof climate change that the vulnerability assessment cancover. (Regular health services and facilities do not
suffice since those are commonly confined to maternaland child health care, control of diarrheal diseases,
micronutrient supplementation, family planning, TB
control program and cardiovascular disease.)• Even if not yet experienced, sea level rise can leadto salt water intrusion in and pollution of the watersupply. Pollution is aggravated by dumping ofindustrial and domestic waste and oil spills.
• Marine productivity decreases as sea surface
temperature increases and thus results in unsafe
and reduced food. Harmful algal blooms (ciguatera)occur. Algal blooms, though of non- toxic variety,have been observed for the first time in Balayan
Bay in 2002. This is being aggravated by inorganic
fertilizer run off and domestic waste dumping.
• There is increased spread of vector-borne disease(dengue fever and malaria) and waterborne
diseases (diarrhea).

72

iii. Climate change-ready physical infrastructure fordisaster and risk management and ecosystem-based
water supply system (distribution), drainage andsanitation
Safety issues generated by storminess and accelerated
sea level rise as well as by increased sea surface
temperature apply not only to the physical infrastructure
for foreshore development but for coastal communities
in general. Vulnerability to the destruction of physicalinfrastructure cited in Table 32 indicates direct effects
on quality of life and can result in injuries, illness, loss of
incomes and lives.
• Destruction of infrastructures, transport and utilities
destabilizes the safe delivery of basic services suchas food, water and health.
• Disaster and risk management plans are
inadequate.
• There are no management plans for river-to-sea
linkages for flows of water, nutrients, soils andspecies.
• The natural coastal defense structures such as
mangroves that can serve as buffer against stormchapter 2

surges have been converted into fishponds andother uses.
• Housing development is increasing in coastal areas(example is Nasugbu).
• The domestic water supply needs are being
provided by existing water districts, municipal water
system and barangay waterworks associations, withgroundwater as the main source of potable water,
however, extraction is not regulated.
These combined factors can explain weak water supply
system, sanitation and drainage beyond physicalinfrastructure. Human settlements in coastal areas
are commonly inhabited by fisherfolk in precarious
economic existence, live in unplanned and temporary
settlements, have limited access to clean waterand sufficient nutrition, lack education, sanitation
and adequate health-care provision, and lack social
status. Also, the informal nature or remoteness of theirsettlements means that relief efforts are less likely toreach them. These situations are aggravated by the lackof public knowledge of the impacts of climate change
and possible adaptation measures.
Overall vulnerability assessment
Based on the potential impacts of climate change,
experts’ advice based on the review of agency reports
and inter-agency workshops, scores were assignedthat reflect the overall vulnerability in health and safety.
For each climate projection with high likelihood of
occurrence, vulnerability was assessed in terms of
exposure and sensitivity (1=Low, 2=Medium, 3=High).
Table 61 provides a summary of the scores.
Assessment of adaptive capacity
Adaptive mechanisms in health and safety are present
in relation to health services which are devolved to• human well- being and climate change : results and discussion

the LGU, as well as coastal resource management(discussion included in the fisheries sector), disaster
response and solid waste management. These arepositive investments that can steer programs in
adaptation and even mitigation (Table 62).
Table 62. Assessment of the climate change adaptive capacity for healthand safety for the Verde Island Passage, 2009.
Capacityrequirements

Municipal
level

Provinciallevel

National
level

3
2
2
3
3

3
2
2
3
3

3
3
2
2
3

IEC
Policy formulation and implementation
Management bodies
LGU-NGO partnerships
Community involvement

To link concerns about climate change adaptation to
health and safety impacts in the Verde Island Passage
is a big challenge. As such adaptation is still being
incorporated into governance: the goals, framework,
strategy, and action plans are still being addressed by
the government. The basic units of management areoperational, but the demands of responding to climatechange needs scaling up in strategies and operations.
A Provincial Disaster Coordinating Office (PACD) ora City Disaster Management Coordinating Council is
expectedly a big challenge in all areas. Their disasterrisk and management plans are still currently being
formulated but the following programs that arefunctional include the organization of Barangay Disaster
Coordinating Councils, formulation of contingency
plans for different events at the municipality level,
implementation and periodic updating on communities
and populations in vulnerable areas and also on
evacuation centers.

Table 61. Health and safety vulnerability assessment of the Verde Island Passage, 2009.
Vulnerability
within 10 years

Vulnerability
within 50 years

high

high

high

high

moderate to highmoderate to high

high
high

moderate to highhigh

Health and disease Index (direct effect on health)• diseases that are temperature-related, water and food-borne, vector- and rodent-borne• food and water shortages• extreme temperature-related health effects• mental, nutritional, other infectious health effects

moderate to highlow to moderate
low
low

high
moderate to highmoderate to highlow to moderate

CC-ready and ecosystem-based physical infrastructure (direct effect on health)• DRM physical infrastructure• water supply system• drainage system• sanitation systemmoderate to highlow to moderatemoderate to highmoderate to high

high
high
high
high

Indicators of VIP vulnerability
Flood-prone index (by area category)Category 1: Almost flooded as a result of heavy rains aggravated by high tide or rise in water level or nearby
seas, lakes, rivers, etc.
Category 2: Flooded only after several days of heavy and continuous rains with subsequent rise in water levelor lakes, seas, dikes, rivers and canals.
Category 3: Flooded only after several days of exceptionally heavy or continuous rains.
Category 4: Never experienced flood but present environmental condition in the area warrants LGU’s concern
on flood, flash flood, land slides and mudslides.
Category 5: Residential areas, national and provincial road networks prone to landslide and mudslides.

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climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Solid waste management as mandated by R.A.
9003 has set up plans at all levels of the LGU
through Solid Wastes Management Board withmulti-sectoral representatives as members. There
are also health service and social welfare agencies/
institutions/ assistance centers that work at all levelsof governance, with programs and services such asformal and non-formal education, skills training, spiritualenrichment, social services, livelihood assistance,and cooperative development. The Fishery andAquatic Resource Management Council (FARMC),
Community Environment and Natural Resources Office,Protected Areas Management Board and CommunityBased Forestry Management Board are key units
mandated to manage and protect the environment.
Meanwhile, community and household capacities andmeans in adapting to health emergencies need to bestrengthened and enhanced. Disasters in recent events
have tacitly demonstrated the impact of climate change
and how adaptation is urgently warranted.

74

chapter 2• human well- being and climate change : conclusions and recommendations

Conclusions and recommendations
Performing a vulnerability assessment and suggesting
adaptation and mitigation strategies is not a one-time
activity. All previous studies and guidebooks point to
the need to treat this as an iterative process, involving
as many stakeholders as possible. Baselines as
starting point in vulnerability assessment have been
crafted opportunistically in the research. Whether
through accessed agency data sets or generated fromparticipative methods, benchmarks that are expectedfrom governance units revealed huge gaps that could
provide concerned agencies with a sound basis for acomprehensive vulnerability assessment and planning
adaptation measures.

Fisheries

In the course of profiling foreshore areas, for healthand disaster as well as risk mitigation, it was noted thatmany of the issues are institutional in nature and canbe resolved even without having to factor in climatechange. As consensus, participants in the project
recommended the following cross-cutting measuresthat may be implemented immediately at the LGU levelto facilitate vulnerability assessments:

Aquarium fishing is one of the more vulnerable sectors
in the fishery because the reef fish are highly dependent
on reef health. An aggravating factor is the generalprohibition imposed by the LGUs on this activity due toits historical association with cyanide. Tuna fishing andfishing of small pelagics are vulnerable, particularly inthe municipal sector which may not adapt immediately
to changing operational regimes. Mechanization andchanging gears is an option for adaptation but this may
not be very prudent in the light of overfishing, and may
negate efforts to rehabilitate coastal habitats. Maximum
Sustainable Yield (MSY) or its best approximation
should be estimated to enable informed decision
making.

• Draft municipal profiles that are climate change
smart and efficiently used, systematize baseline andM&E inclusive of CC.
• Establish a database system for use in synergy bymandated agencies.
• Review existing environmental policies andordinances related to ecosystem-based adaptation
goals, framework and strategies, have policy
reforms and mechanisms for these (acrosshousehold, community, institutional level).
Follow-up activities are best pursued immediately,
to document and assess the process and lessons
learned along the way. More importantly, the identified
adaptation and mitigation options should be given
priority in implementation by the stakeholders andpartners if conclusions of the vulnerability assessment
exercise indicate the area is highly vulnerable to climatechange.
Scores of recommendations are presented to
management units to address climate change impacts
across sectors. Institutional problems and development
issues are recognized as serious constraints thatefforts in adaptation and mitigation have to overcome,as well as challenges such as competing directions indevelopment; corruption; lack of political will; priorities
in the use of public funds; destructive, unregulated useof natural resources (mining, over fishing, etc.); andconflicting laws or their non- or weak enforcement.

The exercise confirmed that climate change affects
different types of fisheries as source of livelihood anddomestic food in various ways but mostly negatively
due to decline in production and productivity as well
as shifting operational regimes. Virtually all types of
capture fisheries in Verde Island Passage are vulnerable
to climate change due to its direct impacts resulting
from increase in sea surface temperature (small
pelagics and seaweed culture) and indirect impacts
on coastal habitats that provide nursery grounds forimportant fish and invertebrates.

• Prepare most vulnerable fishing activities by training
in alternative livelihood.
• Implement coastal habitat protection as short term
but sustained adaptation methods.
• Gear adaptation or mechanization as pelagic fish
shall move farther offshore provided that level offishing effort does not exceed sustainable limits andthat carrying capacity is first determined.
• Educate seaweed farmers on appropriate methods
least impacted on by increase in sea surface
temperature.
• Generate area based/site based data and improvecatch statistics collection.
• Maintain logbooks or data collection at landing sites(specifically on areas fished) may contribute to theoverall understanding of climate change impacts
on fisheries, in particular, and to overall fisheries
utilization, in general.
• Confirm, through focused research, impacts ofincreasing sea surface temperature and accelerated
sea level rise on commercially important species.
• Diversify livelihoods of coastal communities.

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climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Tourism sector
Policy and implementation mechanisms were identified,
all of which could address climate change impacts but
will bring in other benefits in pursuit of environmental
management, such as the following:• Strictly implement existing laws at both the nationaland municipal levels.
• Develop sustainable financing mechanisms, such as
implementing user fees in other areas and covering
recreational activities other than scuba diving.
• Strengthen existing organizations and management
bodies.
• Increase technical expertise on survey andmonitoring of underwater resources at the local
level.
Recommendations that directly deal with climatechange impacts were also provided by inter-agency
workshop participants:• Include CC adaptation strategies in all AIPs.
• Convene all major stakeholders of the tourism
industry to formulate an adaptation plan in dealing
with CC, to include resort owners, boat operators,
and tourism-related associations.
• Provide incentives for community/PO to get theirinvolvement and commitment.
• Develop reader-friendly information materials andmultimedia IEC materials on climate change.

Foreshore development
Many of the management recommendations forforeshore area management deal with institutionalchanges within the current government set-up
as well as completion of baseline and monitoring
records. National government agencies are being
asked to issue policies that will mandate LGUs to
manage their respective foreshore areas. LGUs arerecommending that foreshore area management be
devolved to them, so that they can appropriately issue
a moratorium on Foreshore Lease Agreements (FLA).
Should management remain within the DENR, LGUs
recommend stricter monitoring, shortening of FLA
periods, and revocation of agreements for those that do
not comply with the FLA conditions.
Following is a list of management recommendations
being made for national government agencies.
Recommendations specific to addressing climatechange include the following:• Implement adaptive building design to address
accelerated sea level rise and storm surges.

76• Allocate budget for addressing climate change
impacts.
• Institutionalize Task Force on Climate Change at alllevels of government.
Within the mandate of LGUs, a number ofrecommendations emerged that may address climatechange impacts but can result in other benefits as well:• All LGUs should create and designate MENRO.
• Implement mangrove reforestation.
• Translate policies, plans, etc. for action by barangay
chairpersons.
• Strictly enforce the building code.
• Strengthen LGU-NGO partnerships.
• Include upland stakeholders in CRM planning andactivities.
Specific to management of foreshore areas are as
follows:• Devolve FLA approval to LGUs, so the latter canissue moratorium on FLAs.
• DILG to mandate LGUs to manage foreshore areas.
• DENR should monitor FLAs.
• Revoke agreements between leases andgovernment for non-compliance of terms.
• Shorten FLA term for foreshore areas that are titled.
• Encourage owners to undertake mangrove
reforestation.
• Revoke titles of abandoned foreshore areas.
• Amend existing policies, resolutions, etc. to specify
rules on foreshore areas.
In order to address foreshore area management
more effectively, participants recommend undertaking
research in the following areas:• Complete physical inventory and socio-economic
profile of foreshore areas.
• More research on coastal erosion.
• Complete inventory of environment-related policies.

Health and food safety
People’s health an be compromised by abrupt changes
in atmospheric temperature, accelerated sea level
rise and saltwater intrusion into groundwater sources.
Immediate negative impacts can occur to livelihoodand income, food security, health, education, humansettlement and housing.
• Have health and safety in the climate change
adaptation framework and strategy of the leadmandated agency (DOH, LGU).

chapter 2• human well- being and climate change : conclusions and recommendations• Build up from local to national level a public policy
to address demographic pressures on socioeconomic and natural resources.
• LGUs to function as coordinative mechanism
for climate change adaptation concerns: healthand food security with coastal and marine-based
resources; health and safety with water, settlement
expansion, infrastructure.
• Plan for the current food and health security
systems and infrastructure in anticipation of foodscarcity and diseases brought about by climatechanges.
• Increase human safety, have disaster risk reduction,
have flood hazard mapping, disease control.
• Have a disease surveillance mechanism.
• Put in place plans and programs to provide for safe
water especially in times of calamities.
• Use surface water instead of groundwater for both
domestic and agricultural use.
• Regulate ground water extraction.
• Protect watersheds.
• Strictly enforce building code.
• Relocate coastal communities.
• Craft policy to declare the 100 meter zone from thehighest tide as a no-development zone and off limits
to human settlements.
• Manage domestic and industrial waste properly
to pre-empt its aggravate role in climate change
impacts.
• Set up measures to manage domestic wastes andagricultural run off have to be put in place to reduce
the possibility of toxic algal blooms.
As an opportunity in iterative learning, the vulnerability
assessment presented in this report certainly has a lotof room for improvement and refinement. Furthermore,
there are quite substantial data requirements that areneeded before a full assessment can be undertaken.
Nevertheless, most if not all of the data requirements
are possibly available at government and local offices,or can eventually be generated when data gathering
is improved. Quick surveys can be conducted bystakeholders to secure some of the data requirementsthat are not available easily. Once it has been appliedin the Verde Island Passage, the stakeholders shouldtake note of which parts of the framework are useful
and which ones can be improved. Only then can it besubjected to replication in other conservation corridors
in the country.

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climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

References
A. Special Studies

Arias, J. 2009. Economic Vulnerability and Possible Adaptations to
Coastal Erosion in San Fernando City, La Union, Philippines. EEPSEA,
Singapore.
Bigano, Andrea, Hamilton, Jacqueline M. and Tol, Richard S. J., 2006. The
Impact of Climate Change on Domestic and International Tourism: A
Simulation Study, (June 1, 2006). FEEM Working Paper No. 86.2006;
CMCC Research Paper No. 04.
Conservation International (CI). (n.d.) The Verde Island Passage Marine
Biodiversity Conservation Corridor.
___________. (n.d.) Sulu-Sulawesi Seascape, Ensuring Living Seas for
Generations. CI, Department of Environment and Natural Resources(DENR), and Haribon Foundation. (2007). Priority Sites for Conservationin the Philippines: Key Biodiversity Areas.
De la Paz, Ma. Corazon G. and Colson, Lisa. (October 2008). Population,
Health, and Environment Issues in the Philippines: A Profile of the
ARMM. Washington, D.C.: Population Reference Bureau. (PRB)
Ehmer, Philipp and Eric Heymann, April 2008. Climate Change andTourism: Where Will the Journey Lead? Deutsche Bank Research,Frankfurt, Germany.
Gonzales, Minerva. July-August 2009 Report prepared for the CI VerdeIsland Passage Vulnerability Assessment.
Foundation of the Faculty of Science of the University of Lisbon, 2009.
Climate Change and Tourism in Portugal: Potential Impacts andAdaptation Measures (CLITOP). Portuguese Science and Technology
Foundation, Lisbon, Portugal.
Hamilton, J. And R. Tol, 2007 (?). The Impact of Climate Change on
Tourism and Recreation. Centre for Marine and Climate Research,
Hamburg University, Hamburg Germany. http://www.anilaodiving.com/
divingservices.htm
Lusterio-Berja, Clarinda and Colson, Lisa. (October 2008). Population,
Health, and Environment Issues in the Philippines: A Profile of theCalabarzon (Region 4-A). Washington, D.C.: PRB.
Moreno, Alvaro and Susanne Becken, 2009. “A climate change vulnerability
assessment methodology for coastal tourism”, Journal of Sustainable
Tourism, 17:4,473 — 488.
Peeters, P. (undated) The Impact of Tourism on Climate Change. Centre for
Sustainable Tourism and Transport, NHV University for Applied Sciences,
Breda, Netherlands.
Munday, Philip L. 1,2 , Geoffrey P Jones 1,2 , Morgan S Pratchett 1 andAshley J Williams 3
Climate change and the future for coral reef fishes. 1 ARC Centre of
Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville,
Qld 4811, Australia; 2 School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James
Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia; 3 Fishing and Fisheries
Research Centre, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, James
Cook University, Townsville, Qld 4811, Australia . Fish and Fisheries
9(3): 261-285
Perez, R., L. Amadore and R. Feir, August 1999. Climate Change Impacts
and Responses in the Philippines Coastal Sector. Climate Research, Vol.
12:97-107,1999.
Partnerships in Environmental Management for the Seas of East Asian(PEMSEA). (2009). State of the Coasts of Batangas Province.
Population Reference Bureau (PRB). (2006). Making the Link in thePhilippines: Population Health and Environment. Washington, D.C.: PRB.
Sales RFM. Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal communities to climate
variability and sea- level rise: Their implications for integrated coastalmanagement in Cavite City, Philippines, Ocean and Coastal Management(2009), doi: 10.1016/j.ocecoamN.2009.04.007
Scantlebury, M. (undated). The Impact of Climate Change on Heritage
Tourism in the Caribbean: A Case Study from Speightstown, Barbados,
West Indies. International Journal of Climate Change: Impacts andResponses, Volume 1, Issue 2, Florida, USA.
Simmons, D. 2009. The Impact of Climate Change on Australian Tourism
Destinations: Developing Adaptation and Response Strategies.
Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Center (STCRC),
Government of Australia.
Simpson, M.C., Gössling, S., Scott, D., Hall, C.M. and Gladin, E. (2008)
Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism Sector:
Frameworks, Tools and Practices. UNEP, University of Oxford, UNWTO,
WMO: Paris, France.

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Tompkins et al. 2005—“Surviving Climate Change in Small Islands”. In
Simpson, M.C., Gössling, S., Scott, D., Hall, C.M. and Gladin, E. (2008)
Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in the Tourism Sector:
Frameworks, Tools and Practices. UNEP, University of Oxford, UNWTO,
WMO: Paris, France.
United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) and the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO), October 2007. Davos Declaration on Climate
Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges. Second
International Conference on Climate Change and Tourism, Davos,
Switzerland.
United States Agency for International Development, 2009. Adapting to
Coastal Climate Change: A Guidebook for Development Planners.
Coastal Resources Center-University of Rhode Island and International
Resources Group (IRG)-USAID, USA.

B. Accessed Official Government Agency Records

Baatangas City Office of the Planning and Development Coordinator(OCPDC). Batangas City Socioeconomic, Physical and Political Profile,
CY 2007.
Batangas Provincial Health Office. 2007 and 2008 A1, A2 and A3 records
accessed June 2009.
Batangas Provincial Planning and Development Office (PPDO). 2006 and2007 Provincial Socio-Economic Profiles/Physical Framework Plans andother records accessed June 2009.
Bauan Municipal Planning and Development Office (MPDO). (2003).
Bauan Comprehensive Land Use Plan and Zoning Ordinance.
Municipalities of Lubang and Looc, National Economic Development
Authority Region IV, and Development Planning and Environmental
Management, Inc. (n.d.). Lubang Island Sustainable Tourism Development
Plan.
Morella, Cecil. (May 2007). Verde Island Passage: Centre of Centre of
Marine Biodiversity.
Marinduque and Romblon. Accessed from NSO Quickstat websites on 27
July-03 August 2009.
Occidental Mindoro PPDO. 2007-2009 records accessed August 2009.
Oriental Mindoro PPDO. Briefing Kit for 2008 and other records accessed
August 2009.
__________. (2009). Verde Island Passage Marine Biodiversity
Conservation Corridor Management Plan.
National Statistical Coordinating Board (NSCB). (2008a). Philippine
Statistical Yearbook 2008.
____________. (2008b). Philippine Poverty Statistics, 2006. Accessed fromhttp://www.nscb.gov.ph/poverty/2006_05mar08, on 14 August 2009.
National Statistics Office (NSO). (2008). 2007 Census of Population.
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pr0830tx.html, on 20 July 2009.
__________. (2008). 2007 Census of Population, Annual Growth
Rates Per Province. Accessed from http://www.census.gov.ph/data/
sectordata/2007/province.pdf, on 03 September 2009.
__________. (2008). Families with access to safe water and sanitary
toilet facilities per region. Accessed from http://www.census.gov.ph/data/sectordata/ap2007/tx.html and http://www.census.gov.ph/data/
sectordata/2007/ ap0703.htm, on 03 September 2009.
___________. (2008). Quickstat on Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental
MindoroC. Miscellaneous

Lesaba, M.E., 2009. Fishing for Pets. Philippine Daily Inquirer article, April
19, 2009.

chapter 3• recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts

Chapter 3:
Recommendations for adapting toclimate change impacts
Climate change has already altered the balance of theoceans with serious and irreversible consequences
for marine ecosystems and the services they provide.
The disruption of ecological functions and ecosystemservices has severe impacts on the well-being of humancommunities, especially in coastal areas like the VerdeIsland Passage, where human dependencies on theoceans are high. Immediate and substantial actions

need to be taken to increase the adaptive capacity ofcoastal marine ecosystems and the people that dependon them. Adapting to climate change is the only solution
to ensure ecosystems and human societies can survive
and maintain their well-being when exposed to climatechange impacts. To decrease vulnerabilities of the
Verde Island Passage to climate change, the following
recommendations should be implemented.

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climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Implement:• municipal management strategies that are climate change-smart and efficiently
used, and ecosystem monitoring and evaluation that address climate change.
• sustainable aquaculture practices that minimize the impacts to the natural
ecosystems (e.g., low density finfish pens and chemical-free shrimp ponds).
• a review of existing local, regional, and national policies and ordinances focusedon resource management and reform to include ecosystem-based adaptation, andenable new frameworks where necessary.
• guidelines and best practices for coastal and foreshore development planning thattake into account the potential for increased storm activity, salt water intrusion, and other climate change impacts.

Regulate:• artificial reef development, channel dredging, and seaweed farming through zoning
activities.
• the establishment of better enforcement of illegal fishing activities including blast
fishing, cyanide fishing, and shark fin fishing.
• use of sustainable fishing gear to minimize bycatch.

Instigate:• use of newly propagated accretion from eroded uplands for mangroves as a buffer
against coastal erosion and large waves.
• the improvement and retrofit of existing infrastructure to make sure they cansustain climate impacts.
• appropriate engineering of ports, quarries, and foreshore development so as to not
impact long-shore sediment movement.
• use of best management practices for fishing on coral reefs, seagrass beds, andmangrove forests, and increased enforcement towards illegal and destructive
practices (e.g., dynamite fishing and push nets).
• enforcement against deforestation and extensive agriculture in the watersheds that promote high sediment runoff,
causing coral reef degradation and the decline of coastal and offshore fisheries.

80chapter 3• recommendations for adapting to climate change impacts

Establish:• Marine Protected Areas to reduce current impacts, preserve biodiversity, andsustain fisheries, increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of marine
ecosystems to sustain climate change impacts.
• climate-smart Marine Protected Areas that apply adaptive management
approaches to address current and future climate change impacts.
• outreach programs to create awareness and engage communities on climatechange and its impacts on marine resources.
• enforcement patrol and communication tools among wardens within the local
Marine Protected Area network.

Protect:• areas of critical life stages of vulnerable fisheries species, e.g., siganids, andcritical biological communities, e.g., upwelling areas.
• natural mangrove, seagrass, and coral habitats that act as natural coastal defense
mechanisms, reducing erosional processes and buffering storms and otherextreme weather events.
• a variety of habitats including seagrass, seaweed, and mangroves as they support
various life stages of multiple fisheries species.
• areas (e.g., Mabini, Puerto Galera), species (e.g., whale sharks), and ecosystems(e.g., mangroves, coral reefs) that sustain important tourism activities, providing income for local communities.

Diversify:• livelihoods for coastal miners (e.g., pebble picking) to reduce coastal erosion andenable revenues to derive from sustainable practices.
• livelihoods, particularly for climate change-vulnerable activities such as aquarium
fishing.
• gear use, adaptation, and mechanization within sustainable limits to facilitatefishing as fish move farther offshore.
• opportunities for solid waste and chemical disposal that favor the spread of
disease, pollution, and burial of important coastal ecosystems (e.g., seagrassmeadows and mangrove seedlings).

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climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

82

chapter 4• outreach and communication strategy

Chapter 4:
Outreach and communication
strategy
Miledel C. Quibilan 1 and Giuseppe Di Carlo 2, Lead Integrators
Contributing Authors: Michele Reyes (consultant)
1 Marine Science Institute, College of Science, University of the Philippines–Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines
2 Conservation International–USA

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climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Executive summary
Conservation International (CI)–Philippines conducteda vulnerability assessment for the impacts of climatechange on marine biodiversity and related humanwell-being in the Verde Island Passage. The project
investigated possible ecological effects of climatechange in the region to inform stakeholders and build
local support for such impacts. Initial workshops
were held in Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, andOriental Mindoro in February and March of 2009.
These workshops served as venues for stakeholders
to present their views about the effects of climatechange on their environment and livelihoods, and to
make recommendations for adaptation and mitigation.
This communication strategy is a product of thoseworkshops, and contains the actions and activities
proposed by the stakeholders to specifically address
the identified impacts. The results were validated at theculminating workshop in July 2009 where priorities andstrategies were also identified.
The development of a communications strategy is an
important component of a climate change vulnerability
assessment. The goal of this strategy is to assess
how the outcomes of the vulnerability assessment
will be adopted and mainstreamed to the appropriate
audiences.
This document includes recommendations forcommunicating basic information about climatechange, and results of the vulnerability assessment, tocommunities in the Verde Island Passage. The strategy
is based on output from stakeholders, drawn from aseries of workshops held in Mindoro and Batangas inFebruary and March of this year and validated at the
Vulnerability Assessment (VA) workshop in July.
At the preliminary workshops, strategy objectives
identified by participants revolved around three
central themes: awareness and engagement, action/
implementation, and funding. The target audiences
included were elected officials, civil society groups,
students and law enforcers, among others. The
products used to address these needs and reachthe necessary audiences fell into four categories:
multimedia, education/training programs, exposure/field trips, and legislation. The time frames of thesestrategies generally did not exceed the political terms ofelected officials (1-3 years).
During the VA workshop, stakeholders validated theresults of the initial workshops and proceeded to
strategize and prioritize actions to be taken. For all
three main objectives, a top-down approach was the
choice of the majority, with elected/appointed officials
84

being the first-priority target audience for awareness/engagement, action/implementation and funding
activities.
This document integrates the results of the threestakeholders' workshops and the validation workshop.
The strategies were directly developed by stakeholders
and identify climate change adaptation measuresthat can be easily integrated into municipal/provincial
plans. These measures could also be implemented at
the local/municipal scale using local funds. Securingother sources of funding—beyond the local level—was
identified as the next step in adaptation fundraising.

chapter 4• outreach and communication strategy : introduction

Introduction
This paper consolidates and summarizes the resultsof stakeholder consultation workshops, which werepart of Conservation International–Philippines’ project:“Vulnerability Assessment of Marine Biodiversity andrelated human well-being in the Verde Island Passage(VIP) to climate change”. The first three workshops,
held in February and early March of 2009, were aimed
at formulating an outreach and communication strategy
for the VIP region. Validation of output was then done
during the Vulnerability Assessment workshop, heldin Batangas in July. Results of the prioritization andstrategy-formulation sessions are also presented in thisdocument.

Vulnerability assessment workshop

The validation of the draft communications strategy
was done during Workshop 3 of the Vulnerability
Assessment workshop. Participants were divided byprovince and their task was threefold:• Validate the draft strategy produced during three
preliminary workshops.
• Prioritize audiences and actions.
• Formulate strategies to target the identified priority
audiences and activities.

About the workshops
Preliminary workshops (February and March2009)

Two-day consultation workshops were conducted by
CI–Philippines in three locations: Oriental Mindoro on
2-4 February (72 participants from 7 municipalities and1 city), Occidental Mindoro on 25-26 February (29participants from 4 municipalities), and Batangas on
3-4 March (37 participants from 8 municipalities and 1city).
During these workshops, a perception survey was done
and participating stakeholders revealed what they knew
about climate change.
A 4-P design (Earle et al. 2006) was then used for theworkshop. Participants were divided into groups basedon their positions or functions. Each group was thenasked to:• Identify key problems of local governments
regarding understanding climate change andits impacts on marine biodiversity and related
human-well being and formulate objectives for acommunications strategy based on the area’s needs
and the problems identified.
• dentify key audiences for the communications
strategy. Specific actions that could be taken byeach target audience were also identified as wellas the possible incentives each could get for its
involvement in such an endeavor.
• Enumerate specific products to deliver themessages related to the problem statement toreach target audiences.
• Formulate practical plans of action to fulfill theobjectives identified at the beginning of theworkshop.

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climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Results
Preliminary workshops
Stakeholders drew up objectives for thecommunications strategy, with most of the suggestions
revolving around three central themes: awareness/engagement, action/implementation, and funding.
Their target audiences included, elected officials, civilsociety groups, students, law enforcers and others. The
products that they chose to communicate with werevarious forms of media, education/training programs,
exposure/field trips, and legislation. Political terms ofincumbent officials defined the timelines for most of
the proposed activities (1-3 years) and the suggested
strategies did not move above the provincial level—in
fact, most were proposed for implementation at themunicipal level.
The draft strategy drawn from the results, demonstrated
the existence of a basic understanding of climatechange, based mostly on its effects rather thanunderstating the concepts. Many people stated thatclimate change was the result of human activities suchas burning and pollution. However, others identified itwith changing/extreme weather patterns, sea level rise,scarcity of food and loss of freshwater. The fact thatmost stakeholders defined climate change in terms of
how it affected them and their immediate environment,
is important to determine a successful communications
strategy.
Draft plans drawn up by the stakeholders also
demonstrated an awareness of identifying gaps or"needs". They identified the need to disseminate
information on climate change and the need for fundingfor climate change projects as their most serious
issues.
Stakeholders’ realistic attitude towards the adoptionof a communications strategy was reflected in thetimelines they drew up for implementation, which
generally stayed within the three year term of incumbent
local officials. It is important to note that the participantsin the stakeholders’ workshops were largely employeesof the local government (Table 63). This group madeup over 85% of the attendees of the preliminary
workshops, so it should come as no surprise thattimeline planning often depends on political election
schedules.

86

Table 63. Breakdown of participants of the preliminary workshops.
Designation
PENRO/PG-ENRO/MENROMAO
PPDO/MPDC
SP / SB
MayorsFisheries/Aquatech
AgritechTourism
Other government officials
NGOs
FARMCsPercent of total
13.27
11.22
19.39
16.33
2.04
9.18
2.04
4.08
8.16
8.16
6.12

The full results of each preliminary workshop were outlined in earlier documents.

chapter 4• outreach and communication strategy : results

Vulnerability assessment workshop
Natural and social scientists who attended the
Vulnerability Assessment (VA) workshop provided data
and analyses of the vulnerability of the Verde Island toclimate change. The main goals of the communications
strategy are to use the results of the Vulnerability
Assessment to:• mainstream priorities; and,• deliver climate change messages to key audiences
For the validation and prioritization part of the workshop,
results were as follows:

Workshop 3—Part 1 and 2: Validation and Prioritization*items in italics were added by the stakeholders during the validation process
Objective 1: awareness and engagement
Priority
Public/Target
audience
Elected officials andlocal government units

Or.
Min.
1

Occ.		
Min.
Bat.
1

1

Mar. and		Rom.
Product
1••

Civil Society Groups

2

4

5

5

•
•
•

Farmers and fishermen

4

2

2

2

•
•
•

General public

5

5

4

4

•
•
•
•

Schools- principals and teachers- students

3

3

3

3

•
•
•
•
•

Or.
Min.

Occ.		Min.
Bat.

Mar. andRom.

capacity building(seminars/dialogues)
production/distribution/
display of IEC materials

2

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

information/education
campaign
training and capacity
building
multi-sectoral meetings
on CC

1

1

1

2

2

2

1

information/education
campaign and advocacy
capacity building(forums and seminars)
regular FARMC
meetings

1

3
2

3

1

1

2

2

2

pastoral letter or sermon
community outreachmeetings andfellowships
multimedia
presentations

1
3
4

3
2
4

x
1
2

2

1

meetings and seminars
multimedia
presentations
games
field trips
integration of CC in theschool curriculum

1
2

1
3

1
3

5
4
3

5
4
2

5
4
2

Implementers
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

MayorsSB
Bishop, religious sector
DENR
DILG
Department of Education
MHO
MFARMC
MAO/MENRO
MPDO
Provincial - Municipal Information
Office•••NGOs
Academia
Local media

•
•
•

LGU
DA
NGOs

•

Religious groups

•
•
•
•

NGOs
Department of Education
LGUs
DENR

87

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Objective 2: action and implementation
Priority
Public/Target
audienceOr.
Min.

Occ.		Min.
Bat.

Mar. and		Rom.
Product

General Public

5

1

4

4

•

law enforcement

•

1

1

1

•
•

LGUs
Bantay Dagat

Schools

4

2

5

5

•

mangrove rehabilitation
projects

•

1

1

1

•
•

LGUs
Rural Health Units

Business sector

2

3

1

7

•

regulations concerning
private sectors
responsibilities to thecommunity
come up with incentive
schemes for companies
with positive cc-related
operations
waste management
programs
provide environmental
friendly products for
sale

1

1

•

LGUs

3

3

2

2

•
•
•
•

LGU
Business Sector
Chamber of Commerce
NGOs (ex. CI and Mindoro
Biodiversity Foundation)
DENR
National Solid Waste
Management

•
•

•
•

General Public

3

•

6

•
•

Community

3

3

•

•
•
Elected Officials

1

3

1

•

•
•
•
•
•

•
•

•
Local Government Units

2

2

•

•

•
•

•

•

88

Or.
Min.

Occ.		Min.
Bat.

Mar. andRom.

4conduct capacity
building activities
barangay level planning
activities
provide environmental
friendly products for
sale

1

1

2

2

2
3

1

organize coastal
barangay climatechange programs
partnership with ngos,
private sectors
coastal clean up

1

1

2

2

2

1

3

3

3

approval/implementationof plans (i.e., disastermanagement plan)awarding of incentives
to performing barangays
enforcement of laws
organization of a task
force on cc
issuance of executive
orders, ordinances, etc
monitoring andevaluation of plans
implemented
environmental scanning
integration of climatechange into the tourism
programvulnerability assessment

3

5

5

5

6

9

9

9

5

6

7

7

2

1

2

1

1
4

4
8

1
8

6
8

2
7

3
6

3
4
2

3

4

6

6

1

4

5

5

3

1

4

2

2

3

incentive schemes for
positive practices in cc
adaptation
amend laws toaccommodate climatechange adaptation andmitigation
declare climate
awareness day
enactment ofordinances/ resolutions
regarding climatechangeenforcement ofordinances andapproved easement
areas
zoning/rezoning

Implementers andco-implementers

•
•

•

LGU

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

MAO
MENRO
MG
LGU
DILG
LGUPGOM
MPDO/ PPDO-RSED
MG-Task Force
Mindoro Biodiversity Foundation
CI–Philippines
Provincial governments

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Sanggunian
National agencies
DENR
NGOs
Municipal engineeri
Congressman
LCE
MENRO
PNP
Coast Guard/
Bantay Dagatchapter 4• outreach and communication strategy : results

Objective 2: action and implementation (continued)
Priority
Public/Target
audienceOr.
Min.

Occ.		Min.
Bat.

Mar. and		Rom.
Product

Military

6

7

8

•

law enforcement- NGOs and people’sorganizations

2

8

6

•

assist in thedissemination of
information on climatechangeprovide supplies andmaterials
technical assistance- National line agencies
•
•

Or.
Min.

Occ.		Min.
Bat.

Mar. andRom.

Implementers andco-implementers

1

•

LGUs

•

LGUs

1

2

2

3

3

3

2

1

1

Objective 3: funding
Priority
Public/Target
audienceOr.
Min.

Occ.		Min.
Bat.

Mar. and		Rom.
Product

LGUs

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

•

Ordinances to provide
government funding forclimate change projects

1

1

1

1

•

Policy makers

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

•

Partnerships with
NGOs and the private
sector

2

3

3

2

•

Community

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

•

provide supplies andmaterials
provide funding

4

5

3

•

National Line Agencies

2

2

4

provide help withfunding

5

4

5

•

NGOs

•
n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

•

Or.
Min.

Occ.		Min.
Bat.

Mar. andRom.

Implementers89

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Workshop 3—Part 3: Strategy Formulation
Oriental Mindoro
Awareness and engagement
Priority public:
Elected and appointed officials
Priority product:
Production and distribution of IEC materials
Strategy:		
Preparation and distribution of IEC materials (flyers, comics, media blitz) by the local
				government unit from August to December
Action and implementation
Priority Public:
Elected officials
Priority Product:
Organization of a task force on climate change
Strategy:		
Creation of provincial/municipal task force thru an EO 774 by the LCE August
FundingPriority public:
Local government units
Priority product:
Ordinances to provide government funding for climate change projects
Strategy:		
Formulation and adoption of investment plan by the Task Force by August to December
Occidental Mindoro
Awareness and engagement
Priority public:
Elected officials and Local government units
Priority products:
Capacity building and IEC
Strategy:		
Local government unit climate change task force to gather info materials from expert
				organizations/agencies. Reproduce materials appropriate to the area of jurisdiction and				invite resource persons
Action and implementation
Priority public:
General public
Priority product:Law enforcement
Strategy:		
Request experts to deliver lectures
FundingPriority public:
Local government units
Priority product:
Ordinances to provide government funding for projects
Strategy:		
Formulation and adoption of investment plan by the task force by August to December
Batangas
Awareness and engagement
Priority public:
Elected officials and local government units
Priority products:
Capacity building
Strategy:		
1. Conduct one-on-one separate briefing for the Mayor and the members of the SB				
2. Organized joint meeting with executive and legislative branch				
3. Preparation of IEC materials, e.g., flyers, primer and electronic presentations
Action and Implementation
Priority public:
Business sector
Priority product:
Regulations concerning private sector’s responsibilities to the community
Strategy:		
Make sure that the corporate social responsibility of all the business sectors be part of				
the process in coming up with the climate change awareness program, through:					
a. capacity building					b. distribution of IEC materials					c. provision of incentives
FundingPriority public:
Local government units
Priority product:
Ordinances to provide government funding for climate change projects
Strategy: 		
1. formulation and passing of ordinances concerning collection of fees				
2. lobbying for a percentage out of the collection from fines and penalties to be				
allotted or allocated to climate change programs and projects
				
3. build transparent relationship with business sector and a percentage from the CSR				fund be allotted to climate change programs and projects
90chapter 4• outreach and communication strategy : results

Marinduque and Romblon
Awareness and Engagement
Priority public:
Elected officials and Local government units
Priority products:
Capacity building
Strategy:		
1. coordination through the SB				
2. include in the municipal SB agenda				
3. conduct the actual capacity building
Action and Implementation
Priority public:
Elected officials
Priority product:
Organization of a task force on climate change
Strategy:		
1. identification of climate change members
				
2. organizational meeting				
3. creation of climate change task force through ordinanceFundingPriority public:
Local government units
Priority product:
Ordinances to provide government funding for climate change projects
Strategy:		
1. coordination with the SB				
2. draft an ordinance				
3. deliberation				
4. public hearing
As seen above, over 85% of the people involved in
the formulation of the draft strategy, work for the local
government units. This group also made up the bulk of
the participants of the VA workshop. Therefore, this may
explain why the elected officials were identified as thepriority target audience for all three objectives of theclimate change communications strategy.
The prioritization of local officials for thecommunications strategy suggests that the majorityof the stakeholders believe these people have thegreatest capacity to impact (directly or indirectly)
climate change perceptions in local communities. The
results of the validation also suggest that the main
focus of the strategy should be at the level of themunicipal governments since the national governmentis generally not active in implementation, even though
all management falls under national laws and policies.
This reflects the fact that the Local Government
Code of 1991 transferred many environment-related
responsibilities of the national government to the local
government units.

with NGOs and the business sector closely followed
in importance. It appears that environmental projects
are not prioritized for funding by local government units
because their benefits are difficult to quantify. Local
officials are also concerned that projects they fund willaffect the number of votes that they receive at the next
election. This makes them biased towards projects thathave immediate, readily visible local benefits, such as
health programs and infrastructure.
The strategies identified, addressed capacity building,behavior change and taking action. The product ofgreatest importance, was the municipal ordinance,
which would then make climate change activities a legal
mandate. There is also a clear top-down trend in thepriorities and strategies identified in the workshops,
with government officials as priority targets and thegeneral public taking second priority.

Second priority was given to fishermen and farmers
for awareness building, likely due to the fact that they
are the people most directly impacted by the effects ofclimate change. The business sector was considered an
important target for the action/implementation objective.
This reflects a common belief that government initiatives
are not sufficient enough to complete environmental
projects. This same attitude is apparent in the results
for the third objective, which is to find funding forclimate change projects. Although funding from within
the local government units was prioritized, partnerships
91

climate change vulnerability assessment of the verde island passage, philippines

Recommendations
Certain questions regarding prioritization wereanswered in the workshop, but further thought on thefollowing points is recommended:
1. The need to be more specific.
The natural and social scientists present at the
Vulnerability Assessment (VA) workshop provided
information about climate change effects in the area,
however there is a need for site-specific information.
Not all parts of the VIP will be affected in the same
way and so the information to be disseminated can be
tailored for each area as needed with greater specificity.
2. Should the message to be delivered be positiveor negative?
One thing to be considered will be whether to use
positive messages or "scare" tactics in the strategy.
The results of the workshop established quite clearly
that what matters most to stakeholders in this region
is how climate change will specifically affect them atthe present time. Next, we need to determine how
stakeholders perceive climate change, and how
these perceptions may need to be changed to impact
attitudes and behavior. Then a decision will have to
be made between encouraging, coaxing, scaringor perhaps even enforcing the issue (i.e., imposing
penalties) to effect those changes.
3. Do we use/improve material that already exists
or develop new materials?
Discussions during and between the workshops
suggest that most of the stakeholders believe adapting
existing materials (i.e., translating existing materials on
climate change into their local dialects) is preferable
to creating new material. This is mostly because offunding constraints. It is also interesting to note that,
although coming up with new laws and ordinances isprioritized in the strategy, some people actually believe
it will be easier to find a way to integrate activities into
existing plans and priority projects (i.e., solid waste
management, disaster preparedness) than to come up
with and implement new laws. The second part of the
VA workshop has already initialized steps to integrate
climate change into local government unit plans, and so
the challenge will be to carry on from there.
4. Who will be responsible for implementing
actions?
Again, as the majority of the people consulted workfor the local government units, it is not strangethat they recommend a top-down approach for thecommunications strategy. Some recommended thecreation of a task force to concentrate on the problem.
This kind of centralized approach should, however,92

be taken with caution. Other stakeholders (nongovernmental) may have a different point of view of the
problem and it is possible that a centralized approachby the local government will be one sided and bring up
conflicts of interest. Climate change has effects that
go beyond the municipal or even provincial level and it
may be necessary to have outside help to understand
how local activities can fit into the 'bigger picture'. Thisis already being attempted in the VIP, with municipal
and provincial plans being integrated into the Verde
Passage framework plan.
5. The need for evaluation and follow up
It is inevitable that some aspects of the strategy will
work better than others or that some actions will workin certain areas and not elsewhere. Just as ecosystems
can vary between locations and the effects of climatechange are felt differently, the communications strategy
may need to be flexible with regards to both content
and implementation. Available funding may play somepart in determining which areas, and people receive
resources to conduct follow up measures. Regardlessof approach and jurisdiction, there is a need for someprovisions to ensure follow up of the communications
process to guarantee that the proper messages reachthe appropriate audiences. In addition, certain criteria
will be drawn up to quantify changes in behavior or todetermine the overall effectiveness of the strategy. The
strategy should then be modified and adapted where it
is not perceived to be effective.

chapter 4• outreach and communication strategy : references

References
Earle S, Margit A, MacDowell M, and D Lerda (Eds.), 2006. Designing acommunications strategy: the 4-P workshop. Global communications forConservation International. 112 pp.

93

Conservation International (CI)
Mission

Building upon a strong foundation of science,
partnership and field demonstration, CI
empowers societies to responsibly andsustainably care for nature, our global
biodiversity, for the well-being of humanity.

VisionWe imagine a healthy prosperous world inwhich societies are forever committed to caring
for and valuing nature, our global biodiversity,
for the long-term benefit of people and all lifeon Earth.