Achieving net zero electricity sectors
in G7 members
Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller, IEA
Brent Wanner, Head of WEO Power Sector Unit, IEA
Paris, 20 October 2021

Page 1

The G7 can drive action towards net zero emissions
Energy-related emissions(1990-2020)

Electricity sector emissions(1990-2020)

Investment in low emissions
electricity sources in 2020

878 Gt CO2

301 Gt CO2

USD 400 billion

G7G7

G7

38%

40%

31%

The G7 has an opportunity to be a driving force to accelerate clean energy transitions,making domestic gains and catalysing global action by advancing technologies and accelerating cost reductions
IEA 2021. All rights reserved.

Page 2

G7 members start from different places
Share of electricity generation by technology in 2020
100%

75%

Low emissions

50%

Fossil fuels
25%

CanadaFranceGermany

Italy

JapanUnitedUnited

EuropeanKingdom

StatesUnion

All G7 members have already seen the peak of coal-fired generation and electricity sector emissions by 2007,
but each has its own unique electricity mix, available resources and technology preferences
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Page 3

G7 members start from different places
Share of electricity generation by technology in 2020
100%

Other renewables
Solar PV75%

WindHydro
Nuclear50%

OilNatural gas
25%

CoalCanadaFranceGermanyItalyJapanUnitedUnited

EuropeanKingdom

StatesUnion

All G7 members have already seen the peak of coal-fired generation and electricity sector emissions by 2007,
but each has its own unique electricity mix, available resources and technology preferences
IEA 2021. All rights reserved.

Page 4

The G7 can lead by example to reach net zero electricity
Electricity CO2 emissions in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario
10Gt CO2Rest of world

8G764
20-2
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

G7 electricity emissions have been falling, mainly due to the switch from coal to natural gas and rising renewables,
though the pace of reductions needs to accelerate to reach net zero by 2035
IEA 2021. All rights reserved.

Page 5Electrification drives electricity demand growth

Thousand TWh

G7 electricity demand by sector in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario
16
Total
Other
12
Hydrogen production
Transport
8IndustryBuildings

42010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Electricity demand returns to growth on a path to net zero, raising the share in final consumption to 56% by 2050,
driven by electrification of transport & industry and hydrogen production, moderated by energy efficiency
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Page 6

The electricity mix is re-imagined for net zero electricity
G7 electricity generation by technology in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario

Thousand TWh

20

Other renewables
Solar PVWind

15

Hydropower

Nuclear10

Hydrogen, ammonia andfossil fuels with CCUS
Oil

5

Unabated natural gas
Unabated coal2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Unabated fossil fuels fall from half of electricity supply while wind and solar PV rise from 14% in 2020 to 66% in 2050,
re-shaping the nature of electricity supply and system operations
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Page 7

New challenges emerge for electricity security
G7 phases of integration in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario

73%

75%

Wind & solar PV lead to excess or deficit
Phase 6 over months and seasons

60%
Phase 52020 wind and solar PV share:
Germany 29%
United Kingdom 29%
European Union 20%
Italy 15%

42%

47%

Frequent periods of wind & solar PV
exceeding demand

Phase 4 Require advanced technologies
Phase 3 Flexibility investment in all measures

19%

UnitedStates 11%
Japan 9%France 8%
Canada 6%

Phase 2 Draw on existing flexibility
Phase 1 System integration not a relevant issue
2020

2030

2040

2050

Range for G7 members

G7 members have pushed forward on wind and solar PV, moving through the early phases of renewables integration,
soon they move into new territory, tripling flexibility needs by 2050 & calling for new approaches to meet challenges
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Page 8Innovation is essential to reaching a global net zero electricity
G7 CO2 reductions by technology maturity in 2050
2.7 Gt CO2
Mature14%
Demonstrationand prototype
28%

Market uptake
58%

Innovation delivers about 30% of G7 electricity sector emissions reductions in the NZE to 2050 by bringing additional
technologies to market. The G7 taking the lead on international cooperation is a key to accelerating innovation
IEA 2021. All rights reserved.

Page 9Investing in a clean transition boosts employment and affordability
G7 electricity sector
employment impacts

G7 householdenergy bills

Electricity
networks

600

Generation9Grids

Thousand USD

12800

Million jobs

Billion USD

G7 annual investment inelectricity sectors

4Hydrogenbased
Districtheating
Bioenergy

3Electricity
6400

2
CoalElectricity
generation

Natural gas
13200

Oil

2016-2020
average2030

2019 Growth Losses 2030

2020

2030

2050

Tripling of electricity sector investment by 2030 adds 2.1 million jobs in the electricity sector,
and clean electrification paired with energy efficiency makes energy more affordable for consumers
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The G7 can achieve net zero electricity by 2035

Gt CO₂G7 energy-related emissions and milestones in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario
2021

2025

2030

No new
unabated coalplantsapproved fordevelopment

Hydrogen & ammonia
generate nearly 200 TWh

Wind and solar capacity
additions reach 230 GW

92

Phase out of
unabated coalOver 60% of electricity
generated from low
emissions sources
Electricity emissions
intensity falls below
170 g CO /kWhNew electric car sales
reaching 80%
Double average efficiencyof key product sales
Over 50% of hydrogenproduction is electrolytic

7

Supply milestones
Demand milestones
2035
Overall net zero emissions
in the electricity sector
Bring down the shareof
unabated natural gas
generation below 2%
Over 40% of residential
space heating demand
met by electricity

532040Nearly two-thirds ofelectricity generated
by wind andsolar PV
Over 45% of total final
consumption met byelectricity

Industry, Transport, Buildings,
Agriculture and Other Energy Sector

2050
0.15 Gt of CO2
removed annually
Two-thirds ofresidential dwellings
fitted with heat pumps
Nearly 60% of transportenergy demand met byelectricity

1-1
2020

2025

Electricity sector emissions by source:2030
Coal2035
Natural gas

2040
Oil2045
2050
Bioenergy with CCUS

Key milestones include no new unabated coal plants approved post 2021, wind and solar PV capacity additions
reaching 230 GW by 2030, and average efficiency of key product sales doubling by 2030
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