“Scenario Planning for the Korean Peninsula”
The year 2012 marked a “year of change,” for many states experienced periods ofpolitical transition from elections to regime changes, and North Korea become among
the first states to usher in a new political era. However, it is becoming increasinglyclear, after a year into the Kim Jong-un regime, that the country is headed back to theoriginal course pursued by the preceding regime.

In particular, the nuclear programthat has raised international concern remains North Korea’s diplomatic leverage toactualize direct negotiations with the U.S. Furthermore, the program is deemed “KimJong-Il’s legacy,” and will continue to buttress North Korea’s foreign policy strategies.
Major regional and international players have struggled to muster an effective response,
further clouding the future success of resolving the issue of North Korea’s nuclear
program; all the while the threat of nuclear missiles is becoming an alarming reality forJapan as well as surrounding states.
While there is much opaqueness surrounding North Korea’s progress in weaponizing asmall nuclear warhead, the next three to five years will be the critical stage indevelopment.

Amidst such a threat, how best to resolve North Korea’s nuclear issue isan imminent challenge for Japan’s security.

North Korea’s position of resolutely

defending the previous administration’s approach while legitimizing its current course
insinuates that the Kim Jong-un regime is connoting unrest within itself.. Especially inthe medium to long term, North Korea’s course of action will have a tremendous impact
upon the security and stability of Japan as well as on those of its neighbors.
Both in the shorter time frame (three to five years), and in the medium to long term,devising a collaborative approach by Japan, the United States, and South Korea is ofparamount importance. In the context of Japan-South Korea relations, for example,
the “1965 Framework” that has regulated the two states’ interactions for 50 years needs
much reconsideration its durability in mind.

Furthermore, in the medium to long term,

the kind of regional order (North East Asia) that will emerge in the future is of great
importance. At the heart of such an order lies China – a pertinent actor in issues
concerning not only North Korea but also the structuring of the regional order itself – andits future actions will greatly influence Japan’s security.
North Korea’s nuclear threat is becoming an alarmingly real issue and, amidst theincreasing uncertainty of the North Korean regime’s future direction, the necessity forscenario planning that encompasses Japan’s security is surfacing poignantly.
Furthermore, in examining the issues posed by North Korea, Japan must keep in mind
the power dynamics among major international and regional players.
Bearing in mind the issues noted above, this project analyzes the Kim Jong-un
administration from various angles, and conducts “scenario planning” that takes into
account North Korea’s nuclear missile threat in the short term (3-5 years) as well as thestate of affairs on the Korean Peninsula in the medium to long term. By doing so, thisscenario planning seeks to produce policy recommendations outlining appropriate
approaches for Japan to resolve the abduction, nuclear weapon, and missile issues
vis-à-vis North Korea.
[Research Project Members]
Project Leader (Overall, and Scenario Planning Team Leader)
OKONOGI Masao (Research Professor, Kyushu University/Professor Emeritus, KeioUniversity)
Analysis Team
Analysis of North Korean Diplomacy (Analysis Team Leader): IZUMI Hajime (Professor,University of Shizuoka)
Analysis of North Korean Politics: HIRAI Hisashi (Visiting Editorialist, Kyodo News)
Analysis of North Korean Economy: MIMURA Mitsuhiro (Director, Senior Research
Fellow, Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia)
Analysis of North Korean Economy (Domestic): IIMURA Tomoki (Fellow, Japan Instituteof International Affairs) (Project Secretary)
Analysis of North-South Korean Relations: KURATA Hideya (Professor, National
Defense Academy/Adjunct Fellow, Japan Institute of International Affairs)
Analysis of China-North Korea Relations: HIRAIWA Shunji (Professor, Kwansei GakuinUniversity)

Scenario Planning Team
Russia-Korean Peninsula Relations: HYODO Shinji (Head, America, Europe, andRussian Division, Regional Studies Department, National Institute for DefenseStudies)China-Korean Peninsula Relations: MASUDA Masayuki (Senior Fellow, Northeast Asia
Division, Regional Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies)
Security Issues: KANEDA Hideaki (Director, The Okazaki Institute/Adjunct Fellow,
Japan Institute of International Affairs)
Japan-US-ROKRelations:SAKATA Yasuyo(Professor,KandaUniversityofInternational Studies)
Security Issues: AKUTSU Hiroyasu (Senior Fellow, Northeast Asia Division, Regional
Studies Department, National Institute for Defense Studies)South-North Korean Relations: NISHINO Junya (Associate Professor, Keio University)

Group Member and Secretary
IIJIMA Toshiro (Deputy Director General, Senior Research Fellow, Japan Institute ofInternational Affairs)
Research Assistant
TOMITA Kakuei (Research Assistant, Japan Institute of International Affairs)