JMA’s NWP Strategic Plan Toward 2030
NWP innovation to ensure the safety and security of the people,
and to realize a vibrant society

Executive Summary

Japan Meteorological Agency
October 2018

Meteorological Operation Focusing on Science and Technology Toward2030 (a recommendation formulated by the Meteorological Subcommittee
under the Council of Transport Policy implemented by Japan’s Ministry ofLand, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) is intended to help preventand mitigate natural disasters and improve socioeconomic productivity.
Based on the direction suggested in this Recommendation, JMA’s NWP
Strategic Plan Toward 2030 has been established aiming to promote strong
and steady technical development in the area of numerical weather
prediction as part of social information infrastructure in disaster prevention
and related fields.
The plan covers numerical weather prediction for weather and climate.
1 Current situation surrounding meteorological servicesi)

Changes in natural disaster characteristics

Japan has experienced a variety of natural disasters related to torrential
rain in recent years, including the Heavy Rain Event of July 2017 in Kyushu
Hokubu (torrential rain in Northern Kyushu) and the Heavy Rain Event ofJuly 2018. Future events on a scale comparable to those of the devastating
Typhoon Kathleen (1947) and the Ise-Bay Typhoon (1959) could cause
serious damage in Japan, including loss of life, significant damage toproperty and long-term urban function paralysis.
The severity of natural disasters caused by extreme weather conditionsin Japan has increased in recent years, and global warming may exacerbate
the situation further. Against this background, there is strong demand for1

the provision of reliable weather information to help prevent and mitigate
natural disasters.
ii) Rapid changes in social conditions
Japan’s aging society, declining birthrate and shrinking population giverise to concerns over dwindling local disaster prevention capacity caused by
reduced manpower and a greater number of people needing special
attention in disaster situations. Demographic aging also requires
productivity improvement for appropriate maintenance of social functions
as the working-age population decreases.
At the same time, the widespread adoption of ICT (informationcommunication technology) such as IoT (the Internet of Things) and AI(artificial intelligence) has progressed rapidly, and further use ofmeteorological information and datafor various purposes is anticipated.
Accordingly, the utilization of meteorological informationand data iskeenly expected to contribute to society and economic wellbeing, not onlyin helping to prevent disasters but also in supporting the establishment of
a super-smart society (referred to as Society 5.0), with adoption byindividuals and contribution to decision-making and business process
improvement in industry.
iii) Dramatic advances in science and technology
Numerical weather prediction involves various processes ranging fromobservation data collection to predictive simulation for calculation of futureatmospheric states based on various physical and chemical equations.
Recent years have seen dramatic advances in scientific technology
2supporting numerical weather prediction, such as the development ofsupercomputers and simulation technology. In addition, the development
and proliferation of sensor technology heralds an era of big data from earth
observation and the ability to analyze atmospheric and oceanic conditions
with higher accuracy than ever.
International competition in technological development for numerical
weather prediction is rapidly accelerating, and national meteorologicalservices in many countries are taking active measures to secure appropriate
human resources and budgets in addition to promoting the installation ofhigh-performance supercomputers. At the same time, great strides arebeing taken in international collaboration to help address issues commonto many countries under World Meteorological Organization (WMO) andregional frameworks.
2 JMA’s vision for numerical weather prediction
In consideration of today’s meteorological service landscape, JMA ispositioning "NWP innovation to ensure the safety and security of thepeople, and to realize a vibrant society" as its vision for NWP.
Numerical weather prediction is a cornerstone of meteorological andclimate prediction, and represents part of the social infrastructurenecessary for safe, secure and affluent living. It is placed as a major pillar
and a new national shared asset in the realization of a safe, resilient andvibrant society targeted for the year 2030 with enhanced technology andaccuracy for standards that meet public needs in disaster prevention andother areas.
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Priority goals for 2030
Toward the realization of the NWP vision, JMA will set priority goals for2030 based on changes in the characteristics of natural disasters and socialconditions, and on advances in science and technology.
i) Prevention of disasters caused by heavy rain
Aim: To enable more confident prediction of the possibility ofoccurrence of torrential rain by improving the prediction of stationary linear
mesoscale convective systems characterized by elongated precipitation
areas with spatial scales covering around 100 km. This would support early
warning and evacuation, particularly during the daytime.
ii) Prevention of disasters caused by typhoons
Aim: To improve the accuracy of prediction for phenomena such as
heavy rain associated with typhoons and fronts. This would enable reliabledisaster prevention operations involving wide-area evacuation several days
before extreme winds, flood damage and storm surge disaster conditions
arise.
iii) Contribution to socioeconomic activity
Aim: To enhance long-range forecasts with lead times of up to six
months and improve related accuracy. This would enable contribution to
productivity in socioeconomic activity via reduced climate risk andoptimization of product distribution and production planning.

4iv) Adaptation to global warming
Aim: To provide Japanese consolidated projections on global warmingwith higher-resolution meshes in collaboration with relevant organizations.
This would contribute to the formulation of global warming adaptation
measures implemented by local governments and the private sector.
4 Promotion of technological innovation
Toward the priority goals for 2030, technological innovation should bepromoted for the following three items as keys to improving prediction
accuracy.
i) Application of big data from earth observation using next-generation
technology
Aim: To apply big data from sources such as satellite observation
conducted with next-generation sensors and related utilization technology.
This would help to clarify current atmospheric and oceanic conditions andsupport more confident prediction with regard to the dynamics of moist
atmospheric air in the environmental field that produces stationary linear
mesoscale convective systems, the state of the atmosphere and ocean
areas around typhoons, and other considerations.
ii) Weather simulation for areas over Japan with world-leading precisionand resolution
Aim: To utilize the latest supercomputer and cutting-edge simulation
technology in weather simulation. This would enable the prediction ofweather for areas over Japan with world-leading accuracy and resolution
from planetary-scale phenomena such as heat and cold waves to mesoscale
5phenomena such as cumulonimbus clouds constituting typhoons andmesoscale convective systems.
iii) Decision support based on a fusion of probability prediction and AI
technology
Aim: To realize technology for the conveyance of information on
projection/prediction uncertainty to users in an easy-to-understandmanner. This would contribute to decision-making on evacuation duringtorrential rain events and to adaptation measures for global warming.
5 Reinforcement of development management
Technical development in the area of numerical weather prediction will
be actively promoted by reinforcing development management to realize
technological innovation.
i) Promotion of wide-ranging collaborative efforts
Aim: To realize all-Japan industry-academy-government partnerships
and strengthen international collaboration. This would strongly promoteresearch and development in the area of numerical weather predictionii) Training and securement of staff for model development
Aim: To foster sophisticated experts and development leaders bypromoting the success of diverse staff to realize development based on
world-leading science and technology.
iii) Establishment of bases for research and development
Aim: To intensively strengthen cutting-edge hardware and software
resources such as supercomputers, base software components including AI,
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observation platforms including satellites, and development frameworks tosupport research and development.
6 Development plan
JMA development guidelines
Software applications for numerical weather prediction are called
numerical weather prediction models (referred to here simply as “models”).
The promotion of model development stands at the core of realizing
innovation in such prediction.
These models are aggregates of huge and complex programs based on
advanced science and technology. To promote their development,
everybody involved in related efforts must share not only the relevant
vision and priority targets but also the development guidelines outlined
below.
i) Prioritization
Aim: To prioritize development and promote the sharing of priorities
among those involved based on analysis of prior R&D with consideration ofdevelopment and operation costs. This would enable enhanced
developments contributing to the achievement of the goals.
ii) Empirical evidence-based development
Aim: To ensure the traceability of development based on empiricalevidence and emphasis on scientific discussion, and to promote systematicdevelopment based on common evaluation methods.

7iii) Optimization of development as a whole
Aim: To optimize and strengthen the whole scope of development inorder to promote R&D by creating infrastructure software that supports thedevelopment process and ensuring an appropriate environments forrelated work.
Development plan for priority-goal achievement
The current status and direction of development toward achievement of
the priority targets are discussed below along with related challenges.
i) Prevention of disasters caused by heavy rain
Current status and related issues
Even with the Local Forecast Model, which has the finest horizontal
resolution of any JMA model, it is still difficult to predict the precise
timing and location of elongated areas of heavy precipitation causedby stationary linear mesoscale convection systems with a lead time
longer than around 12 hours, and prediction uncertainty is high.
Even the current resolution of 2 km is still insufficient to resolve
individual convective clouds. Physical processes suitable for highresolution models are also necessary.
More accurate initial states for water vapor and wind fields over sea
areas are necessary.
Direction of development – aims:
To make the horizontal resolution of the Local Forecast Model finer
than 1 km and improve various processes related to cumulus
convection.
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To develop an ensemble prediction system that appropriately
captures uncertainties in prediction of torrential rainfall using theLocal Forecast Model.
To further utilize big data collected via various observation types
with spatially and temporally high density such as information fromsatellites, aircraft, radar, ship-based GNSS (Global Navigation
Satellite System) and various IoT converting sensors.
To develop all-sky satellite data assimilation methods for cloud andrain-affected observations, to introduce a hybrid data assimilation
systemincorporatingstate-of-the-art

technology

combining

multiple methods, and to advance handling of observation error
correlation.
To improve the NWP system based on the up-to-date scientificdeliverables by the research on the mechanism of weather events
such as heavy rain.
ii) Prevention of disasters caused by typhoons
Current status and related issues
To enable prediction of heavy rain and storm surges accompanying
typhoons several days in advance, it is essential to efficiently makepredictions over a wide range of scales from the entire globe to areas
around Japan.
It is necessary to significantly improve typhoon track forecasts via
improved representation of environment steering flow (i.e.,
atmospheric flow affecting the course of typhoons) and typhoon
structures.

9Accuracy in the initial state around typhoons requires particularimprovement.
Direction of development – aims:
To develop an optimal hierarchical system incorporating the Global
Spectral Model, the Meso-Scale Model, the operational oceanrelated models such as a storm surge model, the Global Ensemble
Prediction System and other resources.
To enhance horizontal resolution by increasing the grid interval of
the global model used for typhoon prediction to 10 km or less, andto develop new physical processes more suitable for such a highresolution model.
To implement all-sky assimilation of microwave satellite radiances
and infrared radiances, and to develop technology for the utilizationof observation-related big data from sources including aircraft,atmosphere tracking winds, GNSS and scatterometers with higher
resolution and frequency.
To develop AI application technology that can be utilized forparameter optimization inside models, high-speed calculation for
physical models, observation data quality control and the like.
To improve typhoon forecasts based on the latest scientificdeliverables via research on the mechanisms behind typhoon
movement and development.

10iii) Contribution to socioeconomic activity
Current status and related issues
The accuracy of forecasts with lead times of up to around six months
is insufficient for full utilization in socioeconomic activity, including
optimization of production and product distribution plans.
Technologies suitable for predicting target phenomena efficiently
and effectively are needed. Particularly for predictions with leadtimes of two weeks or more, a model capable of adequately
reproducing interaction among earth system components (such as
the atmosphere and oceans, sea ice, ozone, aerosols and othercomponents) is required.
Direction of development – aims:
To develop hierarchical earth system models capable of predicting
various phenomena and factors with high accuracy (such as heatwaves, cold spells, sea surface temperatures and amounts ofincoming solar radiation) and can provide these predictions on apractical basis.
To develop a high-resolution ocean model capable of accurately
reproducing ocean eddies to support forecasts with lead times of up
to several months.
To enhance the data assimilation system for the incorporation ofvarious observation data on variables such as land surfaces, oceans,sea ice and aerosols in consideration of consistency among earthsystem components and models.

11iv) Adaptation to global warming
Current status and related issues
For the production of fine-grained projection information on global
warming needed for decisions to be made by the nationalgovernment and municipalities, highly accurate and detailed
projection for Japan and its surroundings must be developed incollaboration with relevant organizations.
It is necessary to improve the accuracy of global warming projection
as a basis for detailed forecasting.
Direction of development – aims:
To develop a high-resolution regional climate model for atmosphericand oceanic conditions in order to enable prediction of changes inextreme phenomena such as typhoons and heavy rain, changes insea surface temperature and changes in sea water levels with leadtimes ranging from several decades to 100 years.
To improve the accuracy of the earth system model for theprojection of global warming.

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