Foreword
The Japan Center for Economic Research is engaged in an ongoing Asia research project fundedby Nikkei Inc. This report presents the findings from research conducted in FY2023 on the topic“The China Factor in the Indo-Pacific Region.”
As highlighted in the Diplomatic Bluebook 2023’s declaration that we have reached “the end of
the post-Cold War era,” the world today truly is in the midst of the post-“post-Cold War” era. Afterthe Cold War era of confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union came to an end, the US andother advanced democracies led efforts to maintain and develop the international order based onuniversal values and principles. However, the rise of emerging and developing economies such as
China and India brought about a change in the power balance in the international community, andintensified geopolitical rivalries.
Are we seeing a new Cold War between the US and China, multipolarization, or the developmentof an international order in a completely different form? While the Bluebook points out that we are“at a turning point in history,” the modern world is, in fact, constantly at a turning point. One wonders
what the ultimate fate of the world will be, now that the post-Cold War era has come to an end.
Some aspects of the future international order will depend on developments to come. One factor
thought likely to hold the key is trends in the Indo-Pacific region—a growth center of the global
economy where various powers intermingle. Some see the ongoing battle concerning theinternational order as a struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. Regardless of whether or
not this view is correct, the nature of the international community will likely change depending on
what happens to governance in this region.
With this awareness of the issues in mind, FY2023 saw us embark on a multiyear research projecton the theme “Governance in the Indo-Pacific Region.” We invited former National Defense
Academy of Japan President Ryosei Kokubun (professor emeritus at Keio University) to chair theresearch group, whose membership included a number of up-and-coming Asia researchers. An
authority in the field of contemporary Chinese politics, Professor Kokubun has a profoundknowledge of international relations in Asia and provided guidance on very many points.
In FY2023, the first year of this project, the research group was primarily occupied withconsideration of how China, having come to the fore, is using its influence, and how Indo-Pacificcountries and regions perceive this and are responding to it. During each seminar, members of thegroup discussed tensions within the region associated with China’s rise to power and its expanding
influence. This report has been compiled on the basis of these discussions, along with findings fromsurveys in various parts of the region. Atsushi Ijuin of the Japan Center for Economic Research wasJapan Center for Economic Research

FY2023 “Asia Research” Reportresponsible for the editing of the report.
2024 is an election year, when voters in many countries and regions around the world are set to go
to the polls to choose leaders and the composition of legislatures. The results have the potential toaffect the international political and economic environment, and to bring about a furthertransformation in the turmoil besetting world affairs. Amid this situation, we would be more thandelighted if readers found this year’s report helpful.

Atsushi Ijuin
Lead Economist, Japan Center for Economic Research
March 2024

Japan Center for Economic Research“Asia Research” Report