Vision for Meteorological Services in 2030

Public-focused meteorological service development
against a background of increased disaster occurrence
and societal change

Meteorological Subcommittee, Council of Transport Policy
August 20, 2018

1

Proposal Outline
Changes observed in recent years in Japan have included an
intensification in the scale of natural disasters (such as the heavy rain
event of July 2018) along with demographic aging and a declining birthrate.
At the same time, a concept known as Society 5.0 has been advocated asa national target, with the expansion of information and communications
technology (ICT) to various fields. In light of these developments, fivespecific discussions have been held on meteorological services with amedium- to long-term perspective for the next 10 years, andrecommendations for the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) have been
compiled as outlined below.
Direction of meteorological services focusing on science and technology
toward 2030
Meteorological services in 2030
Ever-greater roles for meteorological services by 2030 for
protection of life/property and quality of life
Ongoing innovation and improvement of observation andforecasting techniques via constant incorporation of cutting-edge
technology; further utilization of meteorological information/data as
an integral part of soft infrastructure and as a common public asset
Protection of life/property and quality of life supported bymeteorological services
Appropriate disaster mitigation and response to extreme
phenomena
Ideal lifestyles for all
Innovation in economic activity and other areas
Direction of meteorological services
In consideration of changes in natural/public environments andtechnological progress expected by 2030, JMA development efforts
for disaster risk reduction with a twin-pronged approach toward
improved observation/forecasting accuracy and enhanced
utilization of meteorological data
Priority issues
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Meteorological service provision based on the science andtechnology of 2030 requires 1. technological development in observationand prediction as major elements of meteorological services, 2. promotionof meteorological information usage in various fields, and 3. enhancementof disaster management and support with JMA as the core government
body. The relevant targets are outlined below.
Development of technologies to improve accuracy in observation andforecasting
1. Weather and climate
Enhanced accuracy of meteorological observation and forecastingfor immediate evacuation and public safety
Improved forecast accuracy for disaster mitigation measures up to
12 hours in advance
Improved forecast accuracy for typhoons, torrential rain and otherphenomena to support wide-area evacuation in preparation forlarge-scale disasters several days in advance
Improved forecast accuracy with lead times of several months to
help reduce climate risk and improve productivity
Provision of information with lead times of up to a century to support
policy decisions on global warming countermeasures andadaptation
2. Earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes
Provision of simple information on status and outlooks forearthquakes to support appropriate evacuation/mitigation andrelated rescue/recovery
Provision of data on expected timing of initial and largest tsunami
waves, outlooks for the lifting of warnings to support appropriate
evacuation
Issuance of eruption warnings based on accurate predictions of
volcanic activity, and higher precision volcanic ash fall forecast, tosupport long-term disaster mitigation
Promotion of meteorological data/information usage
1. Establishment
informationofenvironments
3

foraccesstometeorologicalPromotion of efficient distribution for meteorological information as
a common public asset via combination with various types of big
data and other channels
Expansion of basic meteorological data and improvement ofenvironments for ready acquisition
Improvement of information accessibility
Review of systems in response to technological innovation (e.g.,deregulation)
2. Improvement of information literacy
Enhancement of meteorological literacy for appropriate disaster
response and public safety
Promotion of meteorological information usage in economic activity
Promotion of public disaster mitigation for life and property
JMA’s public-agency performance of a central role in improving
weather information using advanced technologies and promotion ofunderstanding and utilization of weather information for synergistic
effects toward increased public disaster awareness
Basic and cross-sectional measures for initiative promotion
Ongoing verification and improvement based on public demand
Sustained
andeffective
efforts
academia/international collaborationvia

public-private-

Strengthening of institutional structure and technological infrastructure4Outline
I. Introduction
II. Current status and issues in meteorological services
1. Observation and prediction technology(1) Weather and climate(2) Earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes
2. Utilization of meteorological information
III. Direction of meteorological services toward the science andtechnology of 2030
1. Natural/social environments and technology in 2030
2. Direction of meteorological services toward the science andtechnology of 2030
(1) Roles of meteorological services in 2030
(2) Quality of life supported by meteorological services(3) Direction of meteorological services
IV. Priority issues
1. Development of technologies to improve accuracy in observationand forecasting(1) Weather and climate(2) Earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes
2. Promotion of meteorological information usage(1) Establishment of environments for access to meteorologicalinformation(2) Improvement of information literacy
3. Promotion of disaster mitigation response and support
V. Basic and cross-sectional measures for initiative promotion
1. Ongoing verification and improvement based on public demand
2. Sustainedandeffective
effortsvia
public-privateacademia/international collaboration
3. Strengthening of institutional structure and technologicalinfrastructure
VI. Conclusion
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I. Introduction
The provision of meteorological services in Japan began in 1875,
when the Tokyo Meteorological Observatory (the predecessor of today’s
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)) began observing weather andearthquakes.
In 1959, JMA became the first government agency to use a large
computer for scientific calculations, and started numerical forecasting topredict atmospheric conditions using physics equations. This was followed
by observation using the first Himawari meteorological satellite in 1978
and the introduction of Earthquake Early Warnings in 2007. The Agency
engages in constant development to incorporate cutting-edge expertise innatural science and technology in the fields of computing andinformation/communications. JMA’s comprehensive observation network
allows constant nationwide monitoring of weather, climatic conditions,oceans, earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes, as well as analysis andprediction of phenomena using supercomputers with capacity a trillion
times faster than the first-generation machines. Observation andforecasting activities are also expanding in the private sector.
Results from observation and numerical forecasting, as well as
information such as warnings and forecasts (referred to here simply as
meteorological information) from JMA and private operators, are provided
to the general public to support disaster mitigation, everyday living andsocio-economic activity, and are today seen as common public property.
The roles played by meteorological services in disaster mitigation,
traffic safety and commercial prosperity necessitate ongoing developmentof observation and forecasting techniques. As meteorological informationmust meet consumer need to be effective, there is also a requirement for
more sophisticated and diversified data for today’s natural/social
environments and the requirements of the times.
The natural environment continues to change. In recent years, asseen with the torrential rains of August 2014 and those in northern Kyushu
in July 2017, rainfall has become more localized, more concentrated andmore intense. In the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018, unprecedentedly
heavy rain fell over wide areas, resulting in extensive landslides and flood
damage. Other extreme conditions have also caused damage in many
areas, including heavy snowfall in the Hokuriku region in 2018 andheatwaves that have brought unprecedented summer temperatures tomany parts of Japan from July onward. Ongoing global warming brings
6

concerns that the frequency of disastrous heavy rainfall and extremely
high temperatures will further increase, in addition to disasters caused byearthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions such as the 2011 Great
East Japan Earthquake, the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake and the 2014
eruption of Mt. Ontake. Future disasters may cause tremendous damage,including the predicted Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake, a potential Tokyo
Inland Earthquake directly under the capital, and associated volcanic
activity.
Japan has a declining birthrate and an aging demographic that may
negatively affect local disaster preparedness as the number of community
leaders decreases and the number of disaster-vulnerable people
increases. It is important to improve productivity in light of the declining
working-age population, and international factors such as an increased
number of visitors and residents from overseas are expected to take oneven greater importance.
In advanced technology, the 5th Science and Technology Basic
Plan advocates the ideal of an Ultra-smart Society 5.0 with ICT applied invarious fields for universal quality of life. This heralds the start of an era ofgreat change.
In consideration of the natural environment, social change andexpected technological advancement, the Meteorological Subcommittee
under the Council of Transport Policy embraces a medium- to long-term
vision to ensure that meteorological services provided by JMA and various
other organizations continue to develop. This is intended to contribute to
the resolution of meteorology-related issues and further progress invarious fields such as disaster mitigation, everyday living and economic
activity. To these ends, five specific discussions have been held on
meteorological services with a medium- to long-term perspective for the
next 10 years, and recommendations for JMA have been compiled.
This report outlines current status and issues related toobservation/forecasting technology for weather, climate, earthquakes,
tsunamis, volcanoes and other phenomena, and utilization of themeteorological information produced. The content also suggests potential
directions for meteorological services toward the science and technology
environment of 2030, and highlights priority issues in this regard.

7II. Current status and issues in meteorological services
JMA and private operators collect data on weather, climate, oceans,
earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanoes and other natural conditions via
observation and various instruments. The resulting information isprocessed using supercomputers for analysis, prediction anddevelopment of information for provision to local governments, news
organizations and private entities for disaster mitigation and various
purposes in the public and commercial sectors.
In this context, JMA works to ensure the sound development ofmeteorological services based on observation and forecasting, provisionof resulting information, promotion of related work by local governments,
media organizations and private enterprises, and utilization in various
areas of socioeconomic activity.
This chapter reports on current status and issues related toobservation/forecasting technology and utilization of meteorological data.

1. Observation and prediction technology(1) Weather and climate
Status
While Japan enjoys various blessings from the varied weather of its
four distinct seasons, meteorological phenomena such as typhoons, amarked rainy season and heavy snowfall can cause tremendous damage.
Due to the country’s steep and complex topography and geology, heavy
rainfall can also cause significant flood damage and landslides, andweather can be changeable and unpredictable.
Against this background, JMA’s comprehensive core observation
network is leveraged to provide a three-dimensional picture of atmosphericconditions. The system optimally combines wide area observation using
remote sensing technology (such as the Himawari geostationary
meteorological satellite and weather radar) with direct observation using
the AMeDAS regional meteorological monitoring system and radiosondes.
The Agency provides a variety of meteorological information on
precipitation, such as high-resolution nowcasts with a 250-meter meshresolution and analysis every five minutes, along with forecasts up to anhour ahead and information on estimated weather distribution8

accompanied by hourly temperature and weather data calculated with afine 1-km mesh resolution.
Data are also collected from various related organizations. These
include information from rain/snow gauges and weather radars operated
by Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism andlocal governments, GNSS observation data from the Geospatial
Information Authority of Japan (used for estimating atmospheric watercontent) and satellite data from domestic and international organizations.
Information is also gathered from private meteorological service
providers. These private operators, as well as various private enterprises
such as electric power, transportation and telecommunication companies,
conduct meteorological observation for their own needs. The rapid
progress of IoT in recent years has enabled real-time collection ofobservation data from their sensors.
JMA uses supercomputers in processing these data and analyzing
atmospheric conditions to support numerical forecasting as a fundamental
technology. Multiple numerical prediction models (e.g., local, mesoscaleand global) with lead times ranging from several hours to six months areoperated along with different prediction areas from domestic to global, andensemble forecast models for typhoons and seasons are used tostatistically diagnose prediction accuracy based on multiple prediction.
While accuracy in such numerical prediction models is among the world’s
highest, the accuracy of the global model lags behind that of cutting-edge
prediction centers in Europe and the United States. Based on these
forecasts and data representing weather conditions, precipitation
probabilities and other variables (generally known as guidance) and meshinformation highly relevant to disaster occurrence (e.g., various indicesand risk distribution information), weather forecasts, forecasters issue
warnings and other types of meteorological information. JMA also provides
information on notable high and low temperatures up to two weeks inadvance as well as forecasts up to six months in advance in considerationof global atmospheric and oceanic phenomena such as El Niño.
JMA products such as meteorological information, observation dataand numerical forecasts are also provided to the private sector for use within-house forecasts and information and for application in various fields
such as disaster mitigation and commerce.
Future issues
To provide ever-more accurate real-time analysis of weather
conditions, JMA should continually upgrade its observation network as
9technology progresses. The use of meteorological observation data fromvarious organizations, as well as huge amounts of data from smartphones
and other terminals associated with IoT development, is currently limitedin this regard. It is necessary to improve the information environment sothat these data can be widely distributed and effectively used in various
fields.
The accuracy of JMA's numerical prediction models improves year
by year, and it is essential to keep enhancing precision for extreme
phenomena causing significant disasters such as the Heavy Rain Eventof northern Kyushu in July 2017 and the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018.
Accordingly, it is necessary to maintain cutting-edge accuracy in global
models and further improve precision in mesoscale and other models. For
example, with torrential rain and localized downpours caused by linear
precipitation belts, residents need to be aware of the need to prepare fordisasters based on their location and situation (e.g., presence in a hazard
zone such as a flood-prone area or a landslide disaster warning area, andthe status of heavy rain). It is necessary to further improve accuracy inprediction by specifying times and locations several hours in advance toenable individual evaluation and effective use of information for immediateevacuation where necessary. For the prediction of widespread
phenomena caused by typhoons and stagnation of rainy-season fronts,
timelines used by local governments to prepare for large-scale flooding
require accurate and region-specific evacuation from around three days inadvance. Accordingly, it is necessary to further improve accuracy inforecasting for typhoon paths and rainfall (such as total precipitation
forecasts focused on specific areas) with lead times of up to three days.
Forecasts with lead times ranging from a week to several months(which help to mitigate damage in agriculture/logistics and improve
productivity in production, distribution, sales and other fields) also need to
be improved. Other needs include soft-infrastructure measures (such as
improved accuracy in heavy-rainfall forecasting) to address the increasing
impacts of heavy rainfall, extremely high temperatures and other effects ofglobal warming. Global warming forecast information also requires
optimization as a basis for hard-infrastructure measures (such as disastermitigation and social infrastructure development) by national and local
government bodies.
Observation/forecasting technology is essential in meteorologicalservices. Significant improvement of related sophistication and accuracy
requires promotion of public-private-academia collaboration andinternational correspondence, as well as cutting-edge technologies such10

as artificial intelligence (AI).

(2) Earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes
StatusSubduction of the Oceanic Plate under the Continental Plate
produces complex interacting forces around the island nation of Japan.
Surrounded by the sea, the country has been severely damaged byearthquakes and tsunamis. It is also home to 111 active volcanoes.
JMA monitors seismic activity, tsunamis and volcanic activity 24
hours a day using observation data from seismometers, seismic intensity
meters, tsunami observation facilities and other sources nationwide, as
well as seismometers, tiltmeters, GNSS and surveillance cameras aroundvolcanoes. The Agency collects and utilizes its own data as well as
information from observation equipment operated by the Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, local governments and research
institutes.
JMA uses such data and the results of surveys and research toissue various types of earthquake information, tsunami warnings, volcanic
warnings, volcanic ash fall forecasts and other output to contribute todisaster mitigation response by national/local government bodies and the
public.
The Earthquake Early Warning System, internationally recognized
as the first facility of its type, was launched in 2007 to warn people ofapproaching strong tremors based on immediate analysis and predictionof observation data from seismographs near earthquake epicenters.
Around 70 years after the large-scale Showa-Tonankai and Showa-Nankai
earthquakes, a large-scale earthquake over the entire Nankai Trough is
expected to occur and cause enormous damage. The Report on Disaster
Mitigation Measures Based on Earthquake Observation and Assessment
along the Nankai Trough (produced by the relevant working group of theDisaster Mitigation Executive Committee of Japan’s Central Disaster
Management Council) suggested the issuance of Information Related toNankai Trough Earthquakes when assessment indicates increased risk,
and a system for such issuance was introduced in November 2017.
Related government agencies and research institutes also collaborate
under the framework of the Headquarters for Earthquake Research
Promotion.
Based on lessons learned from the 2011 Great East Japan
Earthquake, the capacity for issuance of appropriate warnings for11

tsunamis caused by earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding 8 has beenenhanced. In this context, offshore tsunami observation data can be used
to quickly inform and warn residents of tsunamis with updates asnecessary.
In response to the eruption of Mt. Ontake in 2014, the government
strengthened the observation system around the crater and upgraded thevolcanic activity assessment system with efforts for visualization ofsubterranean structures and other measures. As a member of the Volcanic
Disaster Mitigation Council (composed of representatives from relevant
national organizations, local prefectures, municipalities and elsewhere)
based on the Act on Special Measures Concerning Active Volcanoes, JMA
provides information on eruption scenarios and assessment/forecasting of
volcanic activity as a basis for consideration of disaster mitigation
measures.
Future issues
Since disastrous earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions are
rare, the mechanisms behind them remain largely unexplained, andprediction often involves technical difficulties. However, due to the very
short time between their occurrence and the onset of disaster conditions,
it is necessary to further promote efforts for prompt prediction andcommunication based on observation, including Earthquake Early
Warnings, Tsunami Warnings and Volcanic Warnings. In consideration of
today’s forecasting technology, efforts should be made to elucidate themechanisms of phenomena in collaboration with related organizations. It
is necessary to provide simple and timely information on the trends andprospects of seismic and volcanic activity.
Ongoing observation of huge earthquakes and accompanying
tsunamis must be complemented by further collaboration with research
institutes and related organizations. It is also necessary to develop
monitoring and evaluation technologies for large-scale tremors (such as
the expected Nankai Trough Earthquake) in consideration of potential
disaster-mitigation application of information on uncertain phenomena
such as transitions and occurrence potential.
Volcanic eruption assessment should be based on expertise
regarding subsurface structures in consideration of physics, chemistry,geology and various other factors. The sheer uncertainty of the potential
for volcanic activity creates a need for optimal communication in the field.

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2. Utilization of meteorological information
Status
JMA provides meteorological information to the public via
government bodies, disaster mitigation organizations, media outlets andother channels, as well as to the public at large and to private commercial
operators and other parties online and via the Japan MeteorologicalBusiness Support Center (a corporation under Article 24-28 of the
Meteorological Service Act). The private sector also supplies weather
information to the general public. In recent years, IT companies havebegun to provide a wide range of information via smartphone apps andother media as part of basic soft infrastructure supporting disastermitigation, everyday living and socio-economic activity. Such information
is today seen as common public property.
JMA promotes meteorological information literacy (rather than mere
data provision) in order for such information to be utilized appropriately.
In the area of disaster mitigation, JMA references the 2017 reportof the Study Group on Regional Meteorological and Disaster Mitigation
Services to promote regional collaboration, and makes efforts during
normal times to support local-government literacy in regard tometeorological information for decisions on disaster mitigation. In
commercial meteorological market development, utilization of
meteorological information in the private sector is promoted by the
Weather Business Consortium (WXBC, established in March 2017 via
public-private-academia collaboration) based on inter-sector dialogue
incorporating new consumers expected to contribute to development in
the industry. The Consortium also seeks to clarify private-sector needs andrelated issues, and to provide meteorological information as necessary.
Future issues
Today’s capacity for real-time online interconnection has created amainstream environment for the provision of services to meet increasingly
diverse public demands using the latest AI technology and IoT, along withinformation tailored to individual locations, situations, behaviors andinterests, using smartphones and other devices. In line with the Basic Act
on the Advancement of Public and Private Sector Data Utilization, data
distribution via the Internet and other media is promoted to help resolve
issues via the creation of new businesses and services using a variety of
big data managed by national/local government bodies and private
enterprises. Meteorological information is already being distributed and13used to a certain extent in society. However, today’s conditions necessitate
further promotion of new services by facilitating access to weather
information and related utilization in combination with various forms of
publicly available big data. This requires enhanced provision of various
services by the private sector, etc., improvement of JMA website
accessibility, and promotion the distribution of meteorological informationand enable system review as necessary.
As meteorological information becomes more diversified andsophisticated, the Government of Japan should promote related literacy
and utilization in socio-economic activities such as disaster mitigation,
agriculture and tourism via active dialogue and collaboration with local
governments, disaster mitigation-related organizations and various
commercial and other consumers. This will support mutual action toaddress meteorology-related problems and create new commercial
activity. In this field of disaster mitigation, the intensification of natural
disasters caused by recent environmental change requires enhanced
mitigation capability (i.e., self-help and mutual assistance) for regional
support. Public understanding and utilization of such information is basedon provision and solid awareness on weather and earthquakes, forecast
accuracy and interpretation of related information. In this context, thereduced scientific knowledge necessitates measures to ensure that
education on meteorology and disaster mitigation takes root in schools
and in efforts to train related staff. Efforts are also necessary to ensure that
information is conveyed, properly understood and utilized by overseas
visitors and residents in Japan, whose numbers are expected to increase,to enable appropriate disaster mitigation and positive travel experiences.

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III. Direction of meteorological services toward the scienceand technology of 2030
As 2030 approaches, the environment surrounding meteorologicalservices is expected to undergo major transformation, including changes
in the natural environment and societal conditions, and further
development of advanced technologies.
This section describes the current outlook for this environment,
ideal visions for meteorological services in 2030, and the public
contribution of such services based on the status and challenges outlined
in Chapter 2.

1. Natural/social environments and technology in 2030
Natural environment
Rainfall in recent years has become more localized, concentrated
and intense, causing frequent disaster conditions such as those observedin the Kanto and Tohoku regions in September 2015, the Tohoku region inassociation with Typhoon No. 10 in 2016, and the northern Kyushu regionin July 2017. Record rainfall in July 2018 over western Japan and otherareas also caused extensive damage. Notably heavy snowfall andheatwaves have additionally caused damage in many areas in recent
years, including snow in the Hokuriku region and other areas in the winterof 2018 and heatwaves that have brought unprecedented temperatures tomany parts of Japan from July onward.
Ongoing global warming may further increase the frequency ofheavy rainfall and extreme high temperatures, which may result in morenatural disasters and cause adverse effects in fields such as agriculture
and water provision.
Disasters are also caused by earthquakes and tsunamis, as seenin the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and the 2016 Kumamoto
Earthquake, and volcanic activity such as the 2014 eruption of Mt. Ontake.
The Earthquake Research Committee reports a 70 – 80% probability thata magnitude 8 – 9 earthquake will occur along the Nankai Trough and a 7– 40% probability that a magnitude 8.8 or greater earthquake will occur
along the Kuril Island Trench within the next 30 years. There are also
concerns over potentially disastrous phenomena such as an earthquake
directly below the Tokyo metropolitan area and volcanic eruptions.
15Social environments
Japan has a declining birthrate and an aging demographic that will
exacerbate its population shrinkage. The working-age population will also
decline, and some local governments (especially in rural areas wheredepopulation is particularly marked) may become unsustainable or evendisappear. In local communities, the number of people involved in disastermitigation is decreasing as the number disaster-vulnerable people
increases, which raises concerns regarding capacity to handle disasterconditions. It is important to improve productivity in light of the declining
working-age population and to maintain/supplement service functions
essential for everyday living using advanced technology and otherresources.
Changes relating to globalization, such as an increased number ofvisitors and residents from overseas, are also expected. Japan’s
government expects 60 million overseas visitors by 2030, and the numberof foreign nationals living in Japan was approximately 2.5 million as ofJanuary 1, 2018 (Current Population Survey of the Ministry of Internal
Affairs and Communications) with an expected trend of growth. Visitors intourism and commerce will interact with people in various parts of Japanon a daily basis, and may even remain in the long term. These need to beaddressed.
Technology
The Fifth Science and Technology Basic Plan proposes an ideal
Ultra-smart Society 5.0, in which ICT is expanded to various fields. This
follows the historical cultural progression of hunting (Society 1.0),
agriculture (Society 2.0), commerce (Society 3.0) and information (Society
4.0). Society 5.0 is intended to leverage value via the use of ICT (such as
IoT, AI and big-data analysis) and to overcome issues such as a declining
birthrate, an aging population and disparities in rural areas. This is
expected to support quality of life, improved productivity and sustainableeconomic growth via the use of autonomous robots and other types ofcommercial equipment.
The realization of this ultra-smart society is also expected tosupport the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), with a target date of2030, as proposed at the September 2015 United Nations Sustainable
Development Summit.
Worldwide adoption of IoT technology is expected to promote
automatic and advanced control in the field, as well as information16

collection from a vast number of sensors as well as advanced, complex
and rapid analysis using big data.

2. Direction of meteorological services toward the science andtechnology of 2030
(1) Roles of meteorological services in 2030
In view of changes in natural and social environments and further
technological development toward 2030, the roles of meteorologicalservices are expected to become even more important in protecting lifeand property and supporting quality of life.
As such services are based on observation and forecasting
technology, there is a need for constant cutting-edge innovation andimprovement along with promotion of public use of meteorologicalinformation as an indispensable part of soft infrastructure and a common
public asset.

(2) Protection of life/property and quality of life supported bymeteorological services
Appropriate disaster management for major phenomena
Importance should be placed on promoting understanding andutilization of highly accurate meteorological information produced using
advanced technologies and large volumes of observation data to enableappropriate disaster mitigation measures. This should be done a way thatis friendly to individual entities (such as local governments, residents, theelderly, visitors to Japan and commercial operators).
ExamplesPrecise early evacuation instructions and other disaster mitigation
measures by local governments and related organizations
Timely and appropriate evacuation by residents with a sense of
personal responsibility; safe, early evacuation for the elderly andother vulnerable people
Appropriate disaster mitigation for visitors to Japan17

Appropriate, resilient disaster mitigation measures and continuity ofcorporate activity in large-scale disasters
Promotion of disaster mitigation awareness against a backgroundof intensified disaster conditions caused by heavy rainfall andextreme temperatures associated with global warming
Promotion of adaptation measures (such as disaster mitigation andsystematic development of social infrastructure) based on global
warming forecasts
Universal quality of life
Quality of life can be improved via the collection of personalized
information relating to individual situations.
ExamplesQuality of life with linked-up home-appliance functionality based on
weather and temperature
Real-time wellbeing management in relation to heatwaves andother phenomena
Safety and convenience in travel based on pinpoint destination
information
Innovation in economic activity and other areas
Meteorological information is expected to be used in combination
with various types of big data and advanced technologies in the envisaged
Society 5.0 to create diverse services and improve productivity incommercial fields such as transportation, agriculture, forestry, fisheries,
infrastructure, logistics, retail and tourism.
ExamplesSafe, pleasant traffic conditions with automatic driving based on roadconditions, and safe, efficient maritime navigation and aviation
Appropriate power supply-and-demand planning with solar/wind power
and other forms of energy
Smart, ultra-labor-saving agriculture for high production
Development of optimal value chains in manufacturing, logistics andretailing(3) Direction of meteorological services
JMA’s responsibilities include independent observation/forecasting18

as well as provision of meteorological information and promotion of related
public application. The Agency has a duty to determine and respond to
public demand, and to take the following measures as necessary:
To support the provision of technology-based meteorologicalinformation, observation/forecasting accuracy should be developedwith incorporation of cutting-edge science and technology inconjunction with public-private-academia operators and international
contributors.
The government should support extensive distribution and usage of
meteorological information as a basic element of soft infrastructure insocioeconomic activities (such as disaster mitigation, everyday living
and economic activity). Efforts should be made to improve public
information literacy in regard to such data.
Efforts should be made to promote meteorological services forcontribution to disaster mitigation, everyday living and economic
activity with synergies in technological development and application. In
particular, JMA must fulfill its government-agency role in disastermitigation and promote related public awareness in direct relation tolife and property.

19

IV.

Priority issues

Toward the direction of meteorological services in line with thescience and technology for 2030 as outlined in Chapter 3, it is essential tofocus
on (1) further advancement and improvement ofobservation/forecasting technology as a basis for meteorological services,and (2) efforts to ensure that meteorological information provided to the
public by JMA and private-sector companies is fully utilized in various
fields as an indispensable part of soft infrastructure and common public
property.
Technological development and promotion of related utilization
requires a non-independent integrated approach with focus on disastermitigation, everyday living and economic activity. As a national agency,
JMA should play a central role in disaster management based on its direct
relation to life and property, and actively promote outcomes incollaboration with related organizations.
The next section outlines related priority issues, specific goals fortechnological development toward 2030 based on public demand, efforts
to promote public utilization of meteorological information, and thepromotion of disaster preparedness and support.

1. Development of technologies to improve accuracy inobservation and forecasting
Observation and prediction technologies cover the areas ofweather/climate and earthquakes/tsunamis/volcanoes. Specific goals of
related development in each field for 2030 are outlined below.

(1) Weather and climate
JMA should significantly improve accuracy in its numerical weather
and climate forecasts, which underpin various public meteorologicalservices including disaster mitigation efforts, and ensure that suchinformation is provided to the public and fully utilized to stimulatesocioeconomic activity. Information of current weather conditions andprediction with lead times of up to 100 years must meet various needs indisaster mitigation, everyday living and economic activity based on
numerical forecasts, while considering the difficulty of detailed and20accurate quantitative forecasting with longer forecasting periods.
Specific goals
i. Improved accuracy in weather observation and forecasting for prompt
evacuation and public safety
To support prompt evacuation and various measures (including
efforts related to heatstroke, traffic safety and commercial development),
real-time spatially detailed analysis is performed to clarify the status of
weather phenomena such as rain, snow, wind, temperature, humidity,
solar radiation, lightning and tornadoes. Accurate weather nowcasts withlead times of up to an hour are provided.
In 2030, Severe Storm Alerts will be provided for extreme
phenomena such as torrential rain, thunderstorms and strong winds, withaccurate forecast information up to an hour in advance to warn ofhazardous conditions and encourage self-protection measures.
Phenomena including snowfall, humidity, solar radiation and wind will also
be added to weather analysis map to be provided every 5 – 10 minutes,
and forecasts with lead times up to an hour will be added. Weather andtemperature forecast accuracy will also be enhanced for more effective
application in everyday living, including measures against heatstroke.
These efforts will promote understanding of local weather conditions andoutlooks for application in heatstroke countermeasures and traffic safety,
as well as promoting the use of various services in combination with arange of data.
ii.

Improvement of prediction accuracy relating to disaster mitigation witha 12-hour lead time
Forecasting accuracy for torrential rainfall caused by the stagnationof linear mesoscale convective systems will be greatly improved to support
early evacuation and other disaster mitigation measures.
Project goals for 2021 – 2023 incorporate the provision of meshinformation on the probability of heavy rainfall for emergency warnings
with lead times of around 12 hours from upgraded forecasting for theoccurrence and stagnation of linear mesoscale convective systems. This
will be based on mesoscale ensemble forecasting scheduled to start
operating in the next fiscal year and cutting-edge AI technology, and will
support accurate disaster mitigation measures such as daylightevacuation ahead of torrential nighttime rain.
Using the latest AI technology along with significant upgrading of
numerical weather prediction technology, improved and high resolution 1221

hour prediction for torrential rainfall associated with the occurrence andstagnation of linear mesoscale convective systems is also expected by
2030. This prediction will support improved information on risk maps forheavy rainfall and flood warnings. Such data on hazards relating tolandslides, flooding and potential inundations resulting from downpours
will be provided with a lead time of around 12 hours, and will help local
governments and residents to understand current conditions
independently and take appropriate disaster mitigation measures such as
early evacuation.
iii.

Improvement of forecast accuracy for typhoons, torrential rain andother phenomena requiring advance wide-area disaster evacuation
Focus will be placed on accuracy in forecasting with lead times ofseveral days for heavy rainfall, storm surges and high waves in association
with phenomena such as typhoons and widespread unprecedented rainfall
from rainy-season fronts (such as the heavy rains of July 2018) andsupporting disaster mitigation measures such as wide-area evacuation by
local governments based on timelines and other information.
With predicted application in 2021 or so, lead times for mesoscalemodel will be extended from 39 to 78 hours for approaching typhoons or
expected unprecedented rainfall over wide areas for comprehensive
coverage, and information for total rainfall up to three days will be provided
in advance. Storm surge prediction model will be upgraded to issue longer
term, more accurate and higher resolution forecast.
By 2030, based on significant advancements in numerical weather
prediction technology, typhoon track forecast errors three days ahead will
be improved to around 100 km (similar to that of current one-day forecasts),
and the accuracy of heavy rainfall prediction associated with thestagnation of the rainy season front up to three days will also be improved,
thereby the accuracy of rainfall prediction for large river basins and storm
surges will be greatly improved. This will support disaster mitigation
activities such as appropriate wide area evacuation operations by local
governments.

iv.

Improvement of accuracy in predictions up to several months inadvance to reduce climate risk and improve productivity
To support the early application of measures against heatstroke,snow damage and other phenomena, and to help reduce climate-related
risk/productivity impairment in various industries (such as logistics,
agriculture, forestry and fisheries), focus will be placed on comprehensive
22

improvement of numerical forecast models used to predict heatwaves,cold waves and other significant phenomena exerting significant public
impacts. Advanced technologies such as the Earth System Model will also
be applied to predict extreme phenomena with a high degree of accuracy.
In 2030, accurate forecasts of strong winds, heavy snowfall andother prominent phenomena creating significant public impacts are
expected to be made up to two weeks in advance for divisions of eachprefecture. Weekly forecasts with lead times of up to a month will warn ofextreme high/low temperatures associated with heatwaves, cold waves
and other phenomena. Accuracy in forecasts of extreme high/low
temperatures three months ahead will also be improved to the same level
as current one-month forecasts.
v.

Centennial-scale information to support policy decisions andadaptation to global warming
In addition to raising public awareness of today’s apparent andworsening global warming, efforts will be made to provide related
information in collaboration with relevant organizations. This will contributeto policy decisions and the formulation/promotion of plans for adaptationin various fields, such as the development of dams/levees, hightemperature-resistant crop varieties and cultivation management. To theseends, focus will be placed on providing an integrated overview of global
warming conditions, including forecast uncertainty, and forecast
information in collaboration with relevant organizations.
By 2030, the project will generate detailed global warming
projections necessary for national and local governments to formulate
adaptation measures, as well as projections several decades into the
future. Information will also be provided on the frequency and intensity of
extreme events such as typhoons and heavy rainfall caused by global
warming, and ocean-related projections for phenomena such as sea levelrise.
In collaboration with related organizations, focus will be placed on
raising public awareness of disaster mitigation incorporating a sharedsense of urgency in relation to intensified heavy rainfall. This will support
adaptation measures such as increased recognition of the disastermitigation and promotion of the disaster related social infrastructuredevelopment.

Specific action toward goal attainment
i. Improvement of weather-monitoring technology
23

JMA's core comprehensive observation network will be further
enhanced and upgraded. For Himawari meteorological satellites, focus will
be placed on increasing observation frequency and resolution from thecurrent 0.5 km to 2 km every 10 minutes, and to increase the number ofobservation bands (elements) from the current 16. There will also be
promotion for phased introduction of next-generation weather radars suchas dual polarization types (with enhanced accuracy in observation of
precipitation intensity and discrimination of precipitation particles) andphased-array types enabling three-dimensional observation with periodsof 1 – 2 minutes as opposed to the current 5 – 10 minutes. For groundbased meteorological observation, JMA will work to determine weather
conditions at AMeDAS sites in real time via web cameras and AI analysis
technology for imagery.
The Agency will also collect and utilize meteorological observation
data from various entities, including local governments, research institutes
and private enterprises (such as electric power, transportation andtelecommunications companies). The vast body of meteorological data
available (including information from smartphones and other gadgets aswell as AI-processed information) is expected to support clarification ofcurrent situations, thereby greatly improving accuracy in actual and shortterm forecasts of heavy rainfall.
ii.

Improvement of numerical weather prediction technology
To support the core of forecast information, JMA will improve theaccuracy and resolution of numerical weather prediction models andapplied technology (guidance, risk distribution, etc.) based on thedevelopment of supercomputer capacity and AI technology. For improved
precision in torrential rain prediction, ensemble forecasting will be
introduced for short-term forecasting, and the results will be translated into
simple probability information using cutting-edge AI. For improved
precision in long-term forecasting and global-warming forecasting, an
Earth System Model will be used with hierarchical incorporation of
atmospheric, oceanic and other factors relevant to climatic prediction.
Focus will also be placed on collaboration with research institutes andoverseas organizations via active discussion and provision of researchdata, and on significant improvement of numerical forecasting for Japan's
meteorological characteristics based on domestic and international
expertise.
The application of cutting-edge AI technology to weather
forecasting requires collaboration with research institutes and other expert
24organizations. Accordingly, JMA will continue to accumulate expertise
toward application in observation and forecasting, and will promote active
discussion and collaboration in providing research data.

(2) Earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes
Information on earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes is extremely
important for disaster mitigation because these relatively infrequent
phenomena can cause large-scale damage. The difficulties involved inrelated forecasting (especially for earthquakes and volcanic eruptions)using current science require efforts to improve related technology andinformation provision.
To this end, JMA will use internal and external observation data,
survey outcomes, research results and cutting-edge ICT to clarify the everchanging nature of these phenomena, and will provide detailed, clear
information on related status. This information should be made available
in a timely manner to meet user needs and means of acquisition.
Development of scientific expertise and technological development should
also be promoted to enhance information on forecast and improve related
mitigation awareness.
Specific goals
i. Earthquakes
Simple information on tremors will be provided to support publicdisaster mitigation. To allow long-term disaster management efforts whena major earthquake hits, ongoing changes in seismic activity and crustal
movement will be monitored and evaluated. Information on the outlook forseismic activity, which is subject to uncertainty, is needed in considerationof a public need for safety measures.
In 2030, the Earthquake Early Warning System will provide
forecasts of seismic activity over wide areas. Status will be reported simply
using various indicators such as seismic intensity and long-period seismic
motion in collaboration with related organizations to support related
countermeasures in high-rise buildings. Focus will also be placed on
improving prediction/application technology and provision of specificoutlooks via integrated analysis of seismic activity and crustal deformation
with evaluation of changes in phenomena. Such information will support
effective disaster mitigation when the potential for a Nankai Troughearthquake is relatively high, or when seismic activity relating to short-term
slow slip at plate boundaries is observed.
25

ii.

Tsunamis
Tsunamis hitting coastal areas are often followed by larger
subsequent waves, necessitating disaster mitigation measures such as
evacuation until waves attenuate. However, current information on
expected tsunami heights and times of arrival may cause local
governments and residents to lower their vigilance once the estimatedtime of arrival for the first wave has passed.
By 2030, trends of timing from the first and largest waves toattenuation and the lifting of warnings and advisories will be provided after
tsunami warning issuance based on actual situations and forecasts so that
local governments and residents will know how to respond and how longevacuation orders should remain in effect. Information on tsunami heights
will also be provided in consideration of astronomical tide levels. To ensure
promptness, the first warning will be issued using a tsunami databasecreated from simulation results based on location and earthquake scale.
Focus will be placed on database developments such as refining
simulation to further improve prediction accuracy, with results used to help
enhance disaster mitigation awareness and promote proactive measures.

iii.

Volcanoes
Volcanoes are a target for sudden disaster occurrence such asphreatic eruptions, and long-term disaster mitigation response. Support forresidents, local governments and climbers in this regard requires efforts toraise awareness of volcanoes and related hazards, along with detailed
information on expectations for periods during and after volcanic activity.
This necessitates clarification of volcanic activity via various means ofobservation and active utilization of results from surveys and research on
subterranean structures and eruption history by related organizations.
By 2030, enhanced expertise on the internal structures of
volcanoes will enable more accurate prediction of activity and issuance of
eruption warnings, thereby helping members of the Volcano Disaster
Mitigation Council including local governments to more accurately address
disaster mitigation needs. Assuming the potential for long-term eruptions,focus will be placed on improving local government expertise regarding
related characteristics and disasters, and on contributing to appropriate
disaster management with accurate assessment of volcanic trends andprovision of detailed information.
Ashfall affects traffic, public health and power supplies, and caneven damage buildings. Related classification is currently based on ash
26thickness, focus will be placed on improving accuracy in related predictionof extents and amounts to enable more specific measures.
By 2030, remote sensing technologies such as weather radar andsatellites will be used for prompt evaluation of plumes and other eruption
phenomena, and to assimilate the resulting data for more accurate
prediction of ashfall extents and amounts.
Specific actions toward goal attainment
i. Improvement of observation and monitoring technologies
Focus will be placed on ongoing observation and monitoring witheffective use of associated data from various entities, including JMA,
universities and research institutes. For earthquakes and tsunamis, crustal
deformation will be monitored along the Nankai Trough in collaboration
with relevant organizations.
A volcanic observation system will be developed with utilization ofresearch results from previous eruptions, and advanced IoT technology(such as web-based cameras and drones for mobile observation) will bepromoted along with remote sensing via satellites and other technologies
for ashfall prediction toward comprehensive volcano observation andmonitoring.
ii.

Improvement of forecasting and activity assessment techniques
Evaluation of seismic activity and crustal movement will be
developed, and real-time simulation of tsunamis will be implemented.
Techniques for immediate analysis of fault rupture and assimilation ofobservation data will be promoted.
Expertise on underground volcanic structures will also be developed, andresults from academic research on eruption prediction will be incorporated.
Efforts will also be made to assimilate volcanic plume observation dataand improve ashfall simulation technology.

2. Promotion of meteorological information usage
Specific forms of public utilization for meteorological information
can be summarized as below based on the vision outlined in Chapter 3.
Appropriate disaster management response and action for prominent
phenomena
Local-government promotion of appropriate disaster mitigation
response via promotion of information awareness and utilization by27

building direct relations in normal times
Provision of simple information to help residents, including the elderly,
and visitors to Japan to take appropriate disaster mitigation action
Universal quality of life
Personalized information acquisition and utilization in various aspectsof life based on improved environments for the application of weather
information
Innovation in economic activity and other areas
Development of new technologies and services to meet diverse public
needs via the development of environments for commercial promotion
using meteorological information along with user dialogue and support
The promotion of meteorological information requires environments
supporting related supply and usage, along with improved awareness andliteracy for appropriate usage as outlined below.

(1) Establishment of environments for access to meteorologicalinformation
Recent years have seen a trend toward the creation of services andthe acquisition of personalized information to meet increasingly diverse
public needs based on advancing AI technology and IoT. Accordingly,
meteorological information provided by various entities such as JMA andthe private sector should be positioned as common public property andefficiently distributed as basic soft-infrastructure information for public
services and use in combination with various forms of big data.
These goals require an environment in which basic meteorologicalinformation can be easily accessed and utilized, with focus on effective
public utilization along with big data in consideration of governmental andsocietal trends.
Specific initiatives
i. Efficient distribution of meteorological informationA) Efficient distribution of vast amounts of observation data
In addition to data from conventional observation conducted by
JMA, local governments, electric power companies, transportation28

operators and telecommunications providers, massive amounts of realtime information are expected from the public and various other entities
due to the progress of IoT. This will enable the use of more dense anddiverse bodies of data in line with user needs. However, any lack of userawareness in quality of these data may result in sub-optimal usage andprovision.
Accordingly, focus will be placed on the development of an efficientenvironment for the distribution of meteorological observation data fromvarious entities based on data quality visualization, such as for information
on observation methods/environments affecting quality, and by making
data easily comparable with basic JMA information. This will support
understanding and appropriate application of various data types forpurposes such as disaster mitigation, everyday living and economic
activity.
Long-term focus will be placed on work to monitor the situation of
meteorological observation data by various entities, and on research
regarding institutional considerations and the establishment of an efficient
distribution environment.
B) Expansion of basic meteorological data and improvement ofenvironments for ready acquisition
Recent years have seen an increased need for further expansionof basic JMA meteorological data and environments facilitating acquisition
to support its use by commerce, research institutes and the general publicwith advanced technology in combination with cutting-edge AI and otherforms of big data. Some meteorological information provided by JMA is
also intended for human use rather than machine reading.
Accordingly, historical and regional data (such as weather analysismap) provided on the JMA website and via the Japan MeteorologicalBusiness Support Center should be developed to support basic use forpublic services. JMA will also promote the development of environments
for meteorological data acquisition in machine-readable and other formats,along with information on data access methods, in line with public andprivate open-data initiatives.
ii.

Improvement of information accessibility
Now that data on smartphones and other devices have become amajor source of reference, it is important to promote the distribution ofreliable information via private-sector and other services to meet growing
needs for personalized data.
29

Accordingly, JMA will strengthen the dissemination of primary
information online, improve access to and the display of meteorologicalinformation on its website, and strengthen the provision of information via
effective social media channels with attention to related characteristics. In
collaboration with relevant organizations, the Government of Japan will
promote disaster mitigation efforts to ensure that individuals are provided
with essential location-based weather information. In connection with such
efforts, the government will also promote the development of new privatesector meteorological services and the provision of information to meet
individual needs via apps and other means.
iii.

System review in response to technological innovation (e.g.,deregulation)
To further develop meteorological commerce in response totechnological advancement and societal change, the systems stipulated
in the Meteorological Service Act and other laws should be reviewed andrevised as necessary to ensure efficient distribution of meteorologicalinformation.
Deregulation of meteorological observation methods andequipment should be considered in order to facilitate the efficient
distribution of vast and diverse bodies of data by various entities while
ensuring quality visualization.
The nature of forecasting services has also changed, as research
institutes and private enterprises can now provide short-term forecasts ofprecipitation based on improved observation/forecasting technology andcomputing capabilities, and such operators are increasingly licensed to
publish the results of their research and development. Accordingly, thelicensing system for meteorological forecasting will be examined, andrevisions will be made as necessary in consideration of consistency withdisaster mitigation information. There is also a need to expand the field ofactivities conducted by data analysts and other meteorological forecasters
who digest weather data and other information in various fields. Such work
involves predicting demand for weather-related products/services andpromoting local weather phenomena (e.g., clouds that appear to form a“sea” when viewed from above in elevated locations) as a tourism
resource. It also includes proposals and advice on related utilization, withexperts in meteorological disaster prevention providing immediate
assistance for municipal disaster mitigation.

30

(2) Improvement of information literacy
Effective public utilization of meteorological information in various
fields such as disaster mitigation, everyday living and economic activity
requires provision, support and promotion of awareness/application froma user perspective.
Accordingly, focus will be placed on supporting the understanding
and utilization of meteorological information for socio-economic activity,
including disaster mitigation and tourism (e.g., for overseas visitors toJapan) toward active promotion of dialogue and collaboration with users
such as local governments, disaster mitigation-related organizations andvarious businesses, along with related problem resolution. The
Government of Japan will also enhance public literacy for meteorologicalinformation by promoting application in collaboration with relevantorganizations and raising safety awareness. Such efforts will include
multilingual provision for visitors from overseas.
It should be noted that awareness and effective usage of
meteorological information necessarily depend on the time scale of related
phenomena.
Specific initiatives
i. Improved meteorological literacy for precise disaster management andquality of life
JMA will work to improve interest in the meteorological field andscientific literacy by promoting awareness of appropriate response actions
and scientific expertise of weather and stochastic phenomena along witha sense of personal responsibility for action in the event of a disaster. This
will involve the development of textbooks and supplementary readingmaterials to strengthen awareness in school education, and scientificresearch with public participation. JMA will also continue to work with local
governments in disaster mitigation and education, and with schools tosecure and develop human resources for next-generation meteorologicalservices. To improve literacy and help eliminate inaccurate or confusing
information from online and other sources, the Agency will use social
media and other means to provide reliable comments on weather-related
situations as well as forecasts and examples. Focus will also be placed on
promoting public awareness of the purposes and details of the forecasting
license system stipulated under the Meteorological Service Act and how
to identify questionable weather forecasts.
For visitors to Japan, focus will be placed on enhancing simple
31

information, promoting the display of maps and multilingual information,and providing highly accurate local weather services. Following its
renovation in April 2020, the Meteorological Science Museum will bepromoted as a tourist destination with a wide range of exhibits highlighting
Japan's four distinct seasons, its natural environment and its weather
conditions, and will also promote the concept of disaster preparedness.
ii.

Promotion of weather information in economic activity
To promote 1. the public application of meteorological informationin combination with various types of big data and advanced technologies
in the context of Society 5.0, 2. commercial innovation, and 3. improved
productivity, related needs must be clarified via dialogue with commercial
operators, and an environment that facilitates the use of such informationis required.
Against this background, various public needs will be identified via
ongoing discussions among public/private/academic-sector operators andreflected in the establishment of environments for the provision and use of
meteorological information. Seminars on information usage and training
programs aimed at improving commercial application of meteorological
data will also be conducted to develop human resources capable ofmeeting various needs by utilizing new technologies. To develop
commerce combining meteorological information with big data, focus will
be placed on promoting business matching and supporting new users ofsuch information.
The Government of Japan will promote efforts to encourage
weather forecasters to act as meteorological data analysts in order topromote the utilization of related information in combination with various
types of public and private big data, with purposes such as corporate
product-demand forecasting and utilization for local tourism.

3. Promotion of disaster mitigation response and support
The protection of life, property and universal quality of life requires
meteorological services for disaster mitigation, everyday living andeconomic activity. This necessitates the application of synergistic effects
rather than independent work on technological development andpromotion of related utilization (as per the priority issues described in
Sections 1 and 2 of this chapter).
In particular, recent years have seen natural disasters causing
tremendous widespread damage (such as the Heavy Rainfall in Northern
32

Kyushu in July 2017 and the Heavy Rainfall in July 2018), remarkably
heavy snowfall, heatwaves, notable volcanic eruptions, and seismic
activity (such as the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake). There are also
concerns that global warming will cause increased incidences of heavy
rainfall and extreme temperatures. Against this background,meteorological services play significant roles in raising public disasterawareness and related preparation.
As a national agency, JMA should play a central role in contributing
to disaster mitigation, which directly affects life and property. The Agency
should promote technological progress using advanced technologies andother tools, and develop meteorological information supporting local
governments in issuing evacuation advisories, as well as promote the useof meteorological information for such advisories and evacuation actions
by residents.
To these ends, JMA needs to provide weather information
incorporating up-to-date technological developments (such as the risk
maps introduced in July 2017) and continue to upgrade weather
information with significantly improved accuracy in observations andnumerical forecasts.
Efforts should also be made to support and promote literacy andutilization for advanced meteorological information so that related
significance and limitations are understood and applied appropriately indisaster management. Specifically, based on the report of the Study Groupon Regional Meteorological Services for Disaster mitigation (August 2017),
local meteorological offices should strengthen collaboration with local
disaster-prevention organizations and seek to ensure that meteorologicalinformation is understood and utilized by municipalities, as key operators
in disaster mitigation, in making decisions on emergency response. These
offices should promote the PDCA cycle as follows (Normal times, Disastersituations, and Post-disaster situations), and strengthen collaboration withlocal disaster management agencies. This will support identification ofneeds and areas for further improvement during these three stages andpromote efforts/technological development for related awareness andutilization.
Normal times
Establishment and development of direct relations between
meteorological office directors and municipal leaders
Implementation of practical training and drills for awareness andutilization of disaster-related meteorological information
33

Disaster situations
Efforts to ensure that a sense of crisis is conveyed via hotlines,
forecasting input and other channels
Dispatch of JMA Emergency Task Team (JETT)
Further proactive and integrated disaster reduction measures incollaboration with local disaster reduction agencies, large-scale flood
mitigation councils, volcano disaster reduction councils and otherbodies (timelines for large-scale floods and heavy snowfall, provisionof information supporting road administration decisions for preventive
traffic control and similar)
Post-disaster
Joint situational reviews the emergency response by meteorologicaloffices, municipalities and other bodies
In addition to disaster-preparedness among local governments andrelated bodies, the perspective of residents (essentially the main actors insafety-preservation activity) is extremely important in promoting publicdisaster awareness, as this greatly affects behavior in emergencies.
Residents, districts and communities must enhance their self-help andmutual-help capabilities in collaboration with related organizations andcommunity supporters. Accordingly, it is necessary to promote publicawareness of disaster risks on a daily basis and the individual use ofdisaster mitigation information to help secure safety and evacuation whena disaster is imminent.

V. Basic and cross-sectional measures for initiative
promotion
The synergistic effects of the priority areas of technology
development and utilization promotion (Chapter 4) should be applied toorganically promote disaster management and support. Toward theapplication of meteorological services in disaster mitigation, everyday
living and economic activity, these effects need to be realized with periodic
reviews of science, technology and public demand, along with efforts topromote technology and its utilization in an integrated manner.
Effective achievement of these ends requires collaboration
involving JMA, related ministries/agencies, universities and other research
34

institutions, and private commerce. There is also a need for international
collaboration among meteorological organizations.
Efforts should be made to strengthen the institutional structure andtechnical infrastructure of JMA and other organizations in order to promote
such efforts.
The following sections describe basic and cross-sectional
measures for the achievement of these priority initiatives.

1. Ongoing verification and improvement based on publicdemandIt is necessary to promote technological development andutilization in an integrated manner for meteorological services that meet
public demand.
Accordingly, the PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act) cycle should beconstantly applied and reviewed, organically linking technologicaldevelopment and utilization, with periodic checking of the status ofscience/technology and public demand (e.g., related development inareas such as AI and IoT, as well as changes in societal conditions andinterest in data usage).
In this regard, there is a need to understand public demand in linewith actual situations, and to consider trends and prospects in the field of
cutting-edge technologies. In particular, in the event of large-scale natural
disasters such as the Heavy Rainfall in July 2018, it is important to conduct
joint verification involving JMA, relevant ministries/agencies and local
governments supporting organic disaster mitigation efforts. For example,
joint reviews of previous emergency response situations by the respective
parties should be conducted, examining matters such as the type of
information provided by meteorological offices and their technicallimitations, and how municipalities and other organizations use suchinformation in making disaster mitigation decisions. Assessments andadvance measures also need to be reviewed using simulation based on
forecasting technology for appropriate response to unprecedented
situations caused by climate change and other factors.
To contribute to everyday living and economic activity, theGovernment of Japan should analyze annual surveys on the utilization of
meteorological information and online feedback, as well as identify needs
and issues in commercial sectors through the Weather Business
Consortium and other bodies in a timely manner. This will support reviews35

of measures to promote the utilization of meteorological information.

2. Sustainedandeffective

effortsvia

public-private-

academia/international collaboration
In the field of meteorological services and closely related scienceand technology, JMA actively engages in cutting-edge research on IoT and
AI along with universities, other research institutes and private operators.
Future fusion and joint research combining meteorological information
with big data from other fields (such as tourism and medicine) is expected.
This should be promoted via the training of staff capable of combining
meteorological services with cutting-edge science/technology and various
fields of socio-economic activity. In promoting the utilization of
meteorological information, relevant government ministries/agencies,
local governments and media organizations play significant roles inenhancing information literacy for disaster mitigation and everyday living,as well as in improving the way information is conveyed. While effective
measures against floods, volcanic eruptions and heatstroke are taken via
council and inter-agency collaboration, it is necessary to further promotemeteorological information usage in various other fields in collaboration
with related organizations. There is also a need to collaborate with local
governments in disaster mitigation/education and with schools to provide
future human resources in the field.
Accordingly, related organizations should collaborate to promotetechnological development and utilization. JMA is in a position to play acentral role as a national agency in this regard, especially in the area of
disaster mitigation, with meteorological technologies including a coreobservation network with satellites, radar, AMeDAS and seismometers aswell as numerical weather prediction models. In this context, JMA shouldcollaborate with government ministries/agencies, local governments,
universities and other research institutes, commercial operators andoverseas meteorological organizations to incorporate state-of-the-art
technological development into meteorological services, promote theutilization of meteorological information, and improve environments fororganic creation of new value and services.

3. Strengthening of institutional structure and technology
36infrastructure
To effectively implement these measures toward ideal
meteorological services, it is necessary to consider strengthening JMA’s
institutional structure and technical infrastructure.
JMA as a whole (including the Meteorological Research Institute)needs to establish an effective development system and promote humanresources toward technological development. It is also necessary tostrengthen management for the formulation and implementation ofstrategic plans toward technological development based on publicdemand and technological progress, and to actively promote
public/private/academic collaboration. In addition to these institutional
structures, there is a need to maintain and build up core observation
networks for weather, climate, oceans, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic
activity and other phenomena. Such resources include the Himawari
meteorological satellite series, weather radar, seismographs,
supercomputers for numerical forecasting, and infrastructure systems forpromoting the efficient distribution of vast amounts of meteorologicalinformation.
It is also necessary to improve environments so that meteorologicalinformation upgraded as a result of these technological developments andbasic systems for observation/analysis can be fully utilized in fields suchas disaster mitigation, everyday living and economic activity. In the field of
disaster prevention, JMA needs to play a central role in promoting
meteorological services as a national agency in collaboration with the
public, private and academic sectors. It is also necessary to establish an
institutional structure, including local meteorological offices, for providing
more complete information on observations and forecasts, and for actively
supporting the understanding and use of such information by local
governments. At the same time, it is also important to promote humanresource development at meteorological offices to contribute to theprovision of such information and support. Support for national disastermitigation and crisis management for the handling of large-scale disasters
also needs to be researched.

VI.

Conclusion
Meteorological services have been a part of people's lives since37

ancient times. As indicated by sayings such as “Red sky at night,
shepherd's delight; red sky in the morning, shepherd's warning," future
weather conditions have historically been based on individual experience,
known circumstances and available information. In daily living, people
have embraced the wisdom and art of cohabitation in this regard, enjoying
the seasonal expressions of Mother Nature and her blessings, andsometimes resisting her fury.
Meteorological services evolve to incorporate the rapid progress ofscience/technology and societal change. Observation networks havedeveloped apace, and numerical weather prediction has enabled almostobjective weather forecasting. Cellphones now vibrate to alert users ofimminent earthquakes even before the ground starts moving.
However, even in this day and age, further work is needed toachieve ideal observation and prediction conditions. Observation ofnatural phenomena necessarily involves some level of error, and theprediction of natural phenomena is accompanied by increasing uncertainty
with longer lead times. Some of these problems can be addressed by the
progress of science and technology, while others cannot.
Meteorological information based on observation and forecasting istoday increasingly available, but at the same time is increasingly difficult
to apply due to greater sophistication, diversity and complexity. As a result,public sensitivity to natural conditions may be reduced, along with thecapacity for individual self-help in disaster conditions. The development ofenvironments in which information is provided for use in daily living andactivities also requires efforts to build awareness among a wide range ofstakeholders (including those who produce and provide information) andwork in collaboration with the public for meteorological service
development to meet public need.
Despite the remarkable progress of meteorological services,
natural disasters such as the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 still cause
many fatalities. Global warming is also exacerbating the severity of suchdisasters, and some situations cannot be handled from past experiencealone. The relentless fury of nature must be respected even in the context
of ongoing progress.
Global warming, along with Japan’s declining birthrate and aging
population, will accompany the development of advanced technologies
such as IoT and AI. As the environment surrounding meteorologicalservices evolves, related output will continue to develop and serve as abridge between nature and society. These considerations underpin the
production of this Scientific/Technological Application in Meteorology
38

Toward 2030 by the Meteorological Subcommittee under the Council ofTransport Policy as a set of proposals to JMA.
The implementation of these recommendations is expected topromote the widespread application of meteorological information ascommon public property and the fulfillment of people’s meteorologicalservice expectations.

39