Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism『モビリティ×ITの観点から見た2040年の社会デザイン【創造】』Social design [creation] of 2040 from a viewpoint of the mobility X IT

2022年3月27日
Mar.27,2022

藤原 洋
Horoshi Fujiwara, Ph.D

一般社団法人電気自動車普及協会理事
Board Member, Association for Electric Vehicles

国際学生“社会的EV”デザインコンテスト2022審査委員長
Selection Committee Chair'"social EV" design contest 2022
（株）ﾌﾞﾛｰﾄﾞﾊﾞﾝﾄﾞﾀﾜｰ代表取締役会長兼社長CEO
Chairman & President,CEO Broad Band Tower Inc,

1

目次
Content～2040年の社会背景の考察～
Consideration of the social background of 2040

１．社会状況(人々の生活や移動の手段は?)
The social situation (as for the life and the means of transportation of people?

２． EV を含むモビリティはどのように進化しているか?
How do the mobilitys including EV evolve?

３．社会インフラはどのように進化しているか?
How does the social infrastructure evolve?

４．技術は人々にどのような価値を与えているか?
What kind of value does the technique give to people?
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１．社会状況(人々の生活や移動の手段は?)
The social situation (as for the life and the means of transportation of people?

3課題１：少子高齢化
Problem 1: Low birthrate
and aging

日本の高齢化の推移と将来推計
The aging change and future estimation of Japanpredictive value（出典）総務省統計局「国勢調査結果」、国立社会保障・人口問題研究所（2017） 「日本の将来推計人口」（Source) Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications Statistics Bureau “state of the nation findings,” it is National Institute of Population
4and Social Security Research (2017) "The future population in Japan by estimate"課題２：首都圏一極集中

Problem 2: Metropolitan area overconcentration

三大都市圏及び地方圏における人口移動（転入超過数）の推移
A transference excess number:
10 thousands people

Change of the population movement (transference excess
number) in three major urban areas and the local area

Unit
10k

•Tokyo metropolitan •Osaka metropolitan •Nagoya metropolitan
•area
•area
area

•Local area(the source) Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications5 "Basic（出典）総務省「住民基本台帳人口移動報告」（日本人移動者） Resident Register population moving report" (Japanese moving person)課題３：デジタル化の遅れ（その１）•Problem 3: Delay (1) of the digitization

Denmark
Korea
Estonia
SwedenUK
USA

SingaporeJapan

出所：国際連合

電子政府ランキング（2020年）
Electronic government ranking (2020)

Source: United Nations6課題３：デジタル化の遅れ（その２）

Problem 3: Delay (2) of the digitization

日本の労働生産性は46.1ドルOECD平均より低く、G7で最下位
The Japanese labor productivity is lower than 46.1 dollars OECD average and is last in G7

日本のデジタル化率は0.50、米（0.63）、独（0.59）、仏（0.54）より低い
The digitization rate of Japan is lower than 0.50, USA (0.63), Germany (0.59), France (0.54)

Labor productivity per time
A note: The digitization rate the median (0-1) of the use of
ICT collection degree of all workers

注：デジタル化率は全労働者のICT利用集約度の中央値(0～1)
出所 Source：OECD Skills Outlook 2019、Compendium of Productivity
7
Indicators 2019
Relationship of digitization and the labor productivity

デジタル化と労働生産性の関係

社会課題
Social problem①少子高齢化と人口減少
Low birthrate and aging andpopulation decline

社会問題
Social issue
高齢者の事故 Accident of the elderly person

ドライバー不足 Lack of driver

免許返納による移動困難者の増加
By the license return is hard to move and is increased the person②首都圏一極集中Tokyo Metropolitan area overconcentration

公共交通の利用者減少

User decrease in public transport

都市部の渋滞Traffic jam of the urban area

③デジタル化の遅れ
Delay of the digitization「CASE」＋「MaaS」④地球温暖化

新しいモビリティの必要性！

Global Warming

The need of the new mobility
8２． EV を含むモビリティはどのように進化しているか?
How do the mobilitys including EV evolve?

9MONETの果たす役割
飛行機、鉄道、バス、タクシーなどの移動手段に加えて、人・モノ・サービスをつなぐ
新しいモビリティを作り出すこと。日常生活に欠かせない買い物や通院など、移動を便利にするだけでなく、これまでなかった新しいモビリティの価値を生み出し、人々のより豊かで快適な暮らしを実現します。
A role to fulfil of MONET:In addition to the meanses of transportation such as an airplane, a railroad, a bus, the taxi, create new mobilitys joining aperson, thing service together. Not only I do movement including shopping and the going to hospital that are
indispensable to everyday life usefully, but also bring about the value of the new mobility which there was not until now
and realize the living that is richer, and is comfortable of people.

暮らしを変える新たな「移動」の概念
MaaSとは「Mobility as a Service」の略。自動車をはじめとする様々なモビリティの移動情報を統合、新たなサービスを生み出し、利用者に新たな付加価値をもたらし未来のまちづくりにも重要な役割を果たそうとしています。
A concept of the new "movement" to change a living:
It is abbreviation of "Mobility as a Service" with MaaS. I unify the moving information of various mobilitys including the car
and bring about new service and it brings a user new added value and is going to play role that is important to future town
planning.

10自動車に変革をもたらす4領域（CASE）
4 domains that brings a change to a car⇒社会課題と問題を解決！
solve a social problem and issue

都市部の渋滞Traffic jam of the urban area

デジタル化の遅れ（課題）
Delay of the digitization(Problem)

高齢者の事故Accident of the elderly person

ドライバー不足
Lack of driver

免許返納による
移動困難者の増加
By the license return is hard to
move and is increased theperson

公共交通の利用者減少
User decrease in public transport

デジタル化の遅れ（課題）
Delay of the digitization(Problem)

地球温暖化（課題）
Global Warming(Problem)
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MaaS （Mobility as a Service）とは地域住民や旅行者一人一人のトリップ単位での移動ニーズに対応して、複数の公共交通やそれ以外の移動サービスを最適に組み合わせて検索・予約・決済等を一括で行うサービスで、観光や医療等の目的地における交通以外のサービス等との連携により、移動の利便性向上や地域の課題解決にも資する重要な手段となるもの。
With MaaS, it is important means to contribute to convenience improvement of the movement and a local problem
solution by the cooperation with services except the traffic in destinations such as sightseeing or the medical careby service to put plural public transport and other movement service together ideally, and to perform a search, areservation, the settlement by a lump in response to the moving needs by the trip unit of each local inhabitants andtourist.

国土交通省の推進する日本版MaaS
国土交通省は、関係府省庁とも連携しつつ、MaaSの全国への早急な普及に取り組んでいるところで、実証実験への支援を拡充する他、MaaSに不可欠な交通事
業者のキャッシュレス化や交通情報の データ化などについて、財政面、ノウハ
ウ面で支援し、MaaSによる移動の利便性向上を進めている。
Is working on the prompt spread to the whole country of MaaS while cooperating with the prefecture ministries andgovernment offices concerned, and the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism expands the support
to a proof experiment, and make it the cashless of the traffic company which is essential for MaaS; of the traffic
information, about data-processing it, support it on a financial aspect, a know-how side, and push forward
convenience improvement of the movement by MaaS.
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User
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism

Provide it as one service

Railroad

Departure
Place

Bus

Search, reservation, the settlement

Taxi

AI On-Demand Traffic

Car Sharing

Bicycle Sharing

Microminiature mobility

Tourism

Logistics

AircraftShip

Green Slow Mobility

Self-driving

Medical welfare

Destination

RetailUnify it with the movement purpose

provide it as one service
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Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism

Correspondence toa new lifestyle

Realization of the super cityand the smart city

Improvement of the convenienceof mobility in an area
Effectively utilizationand the sightseeing spotof the existing public
transport

Creation and regional
activation of the goingout opportunity

ポスト
コロナ社会
Post-corona society

インバウンド（外国人向け）＋
イントラバウンド（日本人向け）

デジタル技術による効率運用
Effective operationby the digital technology

デジタル技術による効率運用

デジタル
田園都市国家構想と連携
Digital garden city nation
design and cooperation

Effective operationby the digital technology

Inbound (for foreigners) +intra-bound (for Japanese）

国土交通省の推進する日本版MaaSは地域課題を解決する！
MaaS for Japan which the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism promotes solves a local problem!

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３．社会インフラはどのように進化しているか?
How does the social infrastructure evolve?

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社会インフラの進化の例：「道路」と「通信」
An example of the evolution of the social infrastructure: "A road" and "communication"

これまでの社会インフラは今後の社会インフラはリアルワールド＋「道路」などのリアルワールド デジタル サイバーワールドの相乗的進化の時代へとして物理的な進化だった！ 革命 The future society infrastructure to the times of
The conventional society infrastructure was
the evolution that was physical as real worldsuch as "a road"!

Digitalrevolution

the synergistic evolution of real world + cyber world
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2019～2020年にかけて次世代情報通信インフラについて議論
Arguement about next-generation information and communication infrastructure from2019 through 2020

総務省「Beyond 5G推進戦略懇談会」

構成員

一覧

Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications "Beyond 5G promotion strategy round-tableconference“（敬称略、座長及び座長代理を除き五十音順）
Chairman: Prof.Makoto Gonokami President of The University of Tokyo

（座長）
五神 真
東京大学総長（座長代理）
森川 博之
東京大学大学院工学系研究科教授
飯泉 嘉門
徳島県知事
内永 ゆか子 NPO法人J-Win理事長
木村 たま代 主婦連合会事務局長
篠﨑 彰彦
九州大学大学院経済学研究院教授
竹村 詠美
Peatix Inc. 共同創設者・アドバイザー
徳田 英幸
国立研究開発法人情報通信研究機構理事長
藤原 洋
株式会社ﾌﾞﾛｰﾄﾞﾊﾞﾝﾄﾞﾀﾜｰ代表取締役会長兼社長CEO
根本 勝則 一般社団法人日本経済団体連合会常務理事
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Society image prospective in the 2030s

Cyber physical system

Cyber SpaceBig Data

Physical space

The information and communication network
which supports data leadership society

Realization of Society5.0

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出典：Beyond5G推進戦略懇談会

2020～2030年

2030～2040年

５G時代のDCインフラ

Beyond 5G時代のDCインフラ

DC infrastructure of the 5G era

DC infrastructure of the Beyond 5G era
Public Beyond 5G*DC:Data Center

Public 5G
Local Beyond5G

Local 5G

データはDC・クラウドへ集約され、データ解析、AIへ活用される

The data are gathered to DC, a cloud andare applied in data analysis, AI

５Gによるデータ流通の変化
Change of the data distribution by 5GCore DC*MEC: Multi-access Edge Computing

クラウド機能（AI、データ解析）が地域分散、データの地産地消！

Evolution by Beyond5G
Beyond5Gによる進化

Dispersion local a cloud function (AI, data analysis),the local production for local consumption of data!

・エッジDC（超分散型MEC）
・Edge DC
- AI+IoT(super distributed MEC)
- 高度セキュリティ- AI+IoT
High security- エネルギー効率化- Energy efficiency- 自動運転- Automatic driving
・Beyond 5G infrastructure
・Beyond 5G インフラ
- 更に超高速・低遅延・ - More super-high-speed
low delay, multi-point
多地点- An interactive expressway is- 双方向の高速大容量
large-capacity
Super
distributed- 超分散アーキテクチャ
architecture19

●社会インフラの供給基盤とその課題〇社会インフラの範囲

A supply base of the social
infrastructure and the problem

Range of the social infrastructure

道路、港湾、空港、上下水道、電気・ガス、医療、消防・警察、行政ｻｰﾋﾞｽ
Road, harbor, airport, water and sewage, electricity, gas, medical care, firefighting, the police, administrative services〇生産基盤となる社会インフラは３つある！
There is 3 society infrastructure becoming the infrastructure①道路、港湾、空港＝交通インフラ
Road, harbor, airport = traffic infrastructure②電力事業③電気通信事業

次世代EVモビリティは全てに関連！
The next-generation EV mobility is related to all!

Power industry
Telecommunications industry〇課題：①Population decline①人口減少②Technical change②技術の変化③Deterioration of③既存施設の老朽化 existing facilities④Severe financial④厳しい財政状況
status⑤Huge disaster⑤巨大災害⇒利用頻度の低下/費用対効果悪化
Drop/cost-effectiveness aggravation of the use frequency⇒内容/質/量の変化
Change of contents/quality/quantity20

●我が国の社会インフラに対する企業の評価【交通・電力・通信】
Evaluation of the company for the social infrastructure of our country [traffic, electricity, communication]
Evaluation of the quality of the traffic infrastructure
pointsOECD average
Singapore
FranceJapan

Holland

Japan

Japan

OECD average
OECD average

OECD average〇道路の質の評価は144か国中14位でOECD平均よりも高いが、港湾は31位でOECD平均と同程度、空港は46位でOECD平均を下回る！
The evaluation of the quality of the road is the 14th place out of 144 countries and is higher than OECDaverage, but the airport is the 46th place, and the harbor is less than OECD average with OECD average
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with the 31st place at the same level!

Evaluation of the quality of the electricity infrastructure
points〇電力の質は、2012年にOECD平均を下回り、2011年以降に順位を下げ、大震災の影響か？
The quality of the electricity was less thanOECD average in 2012. This lowered theorder after 2011, is it the influence of thegreat earthquake disaster?

OECD average

HollandJapan22

通信の質は、ビジネス面の要求水準を満たしているとの回答がOECD平均より高い！

pointsAn answer that I meet the demand
standard of the business side is higher
in the quality of the communication
than OECD average!

企業向け電話料金は国際的に見て高いが、インターネットの通信料金は安いため！
OECD average

DenmarkJapan

Because I see the corporate telephone
rates globally and am high, but thecommunication rate of the Internet is
low!
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24

●社会インフラに関連⇒生産年齢人口が地方を中心に全国的に減少
It is related to social infrastructure.

Productive population decreased nationwide
led by a district.

〇人口について国立社会保障・人口問題研究所
Social security national about population by Institute of Population Problems⇒人口生産年齢人口（15～64歳人口）は、1995年の国勢調査にて8,726万人とピークに達し、その後、減少局面入り！
The population productive population (15-64 years old) reaches 87.26 million and the peakin a national census of 1995, and decrease situation is containing it afterwards!

⇒日本の総人口は2030年に1億1,662万人、2040年1億240万人
The total population of Japan becomes 116.62 million people in 2030 and becomes
102.4 million people in 2040.

⇒生産年齢人口は2030年には6,773万人、2040年5.543万人
The productive population becomes 67.73 million people in 2030, and it is 55,430 2040.

⇒特に、北海道、東北、四国の減少が著しい
Particularly, Hokkaido, Tohoku, decrease of Shikoku are remarkable
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Future population change

Change of the productive populationaccording to the area
Hokkaido
TohokuNorth Kanto
South Kanto
Hokuriku
Tokai
Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
KyushuOkinawa26

Change of the population density according to the area
Hokkaido
TohokuNorth Kanto

Hokuriku
Tokai
Kinki
Chugoku
Shikoku
KyushuOkinawaSouth Kanto⇒人口密度（人／平方キロメートル）が低下し、北海道は69人（現在）、東北は129人（現在）
四国では2020年に、中国地方でも2035年に200人を下回る！
Population density (person/square kilometer) decreases, and 69 Tohoku is 129 Shikoku,
and Hokkaido is less than 200 people in the Chugoku district in 2035 in 2020!

＊東京都6400人、大阪府4640人、神奈川県3814人、1459人（現在）
6,400 Tokyo, Osaka 4,640, Kanagawa 3,814, 1,459 people(current)27

●公共投資は96年ピークに近年他の主要先進国と同水準まで低下
In late years the public works spending fell to other main developed countries and the standard
at the peak in 96.

我が国の公共投資の規模（一般政府の総固定資本形成〔GDP比〕）
は、欧米主要国と比較して、90年代は高い水準で推移。
The scale (total fixed capital formation [GDP ratio] of the general government) of the public works spending of our country
changed at a high standard in comparison with a European and American major country in the 90s.

⇒90年代の経済情勢の悪化に際して講じられた累次の経済対策に公共投資を利用した需要喚起策が頻繁に利用されたため。
This is because the demand for economic situation awakening plan that used public works spending for
economic measure of the repeatedly lectured on on aggravation of the 90s was used frequently.

⇒財政の悪化が顕著になり、2001年以降、政府は公共事業予算に主要先進国の水準も参考としつつ公共投資の対GDP比を中期的に引き下げていくこととし公共投資を削減。

Fiscal aggravation became remarkable, and the government decided to reduce public works spending as a percentage
of GDP over the medium term while taking the standard of main developed countries into account in a public
enterprise budget, and, after 2001, they reduced public works spending.

⇒GDPに対する公共投資の比率は低下が続き、リーマンショック後、経済危機対応として需要を喚起する経済対策を実施したため、公共投資も増加したが、2011年には主要先進国と同程度の水準。
Because a drop continued as for the ratio of the public works spending for the GDP, and the government carried out
economic measure to rouse demand as economic crisis correspondence after Lehman shock, the public works
spending increased, but it was in a standard at the same level as main developed countries in 2011.
28

In late years the public works spending decreased 96 in other main developed countries and the standard at the peak.

Change of the total fixed capital formation(The ratio with the nominal GDP)
Korea

CanadaFrance

Japan

USA

UK

Italy

Germany⇒GDPに対する公共投資の比率は低下が続き、リーマンショック後、経済危機対応として需要を喚起する経済対策を実施したため、公共投資も増加したが、2011年には主要先進国と同程度の水準へ。
Because a drop continued as for the ratio of the public works spending for the GDP, and the government carried out
economic measure to rouse demand as economic crisis correspondence after Lehman shock, the public works
spending increased, but it was in a standard at the same level as main developed countries in 2011.

29

Change of tangible fixed assets(The ratio with the nominal GDP)Japan

FranceUSA

CanadaUK

Germany⇒公共投資によって形成されたストックを一般政府の有形固定資産のGDP比として評価すると、我が国は、2011年時点で欧米主要国に比して約1.5倍以上。（有形固定資産の伸びに比して名目GDPの伸びが欧米諸国に比べて顕著に低いことによる）
In our country, it was than about 1.5 times in comparison with Europe and America major country as of 2011 when I
evaluated stock formed of public works spending as the GDP ratio of tangible fixed assets of the general government. (bygrowth of the nominal GDP being lower than the growth of tangible fixed assets conspicuously than Western countries) 30

●社会インフラ整備に関する最近の考え方

Recent way of thinking about the social
infrastructure maintenace●第一に、「選択と集中」の徹底である！Is first, of "a choice and the concentration" be thorough!
⇒公共投資の実施における国と地方の役割分担をより明確にし、民需誘発効果や投資効率などを踏まえつつ、整備を行うことが重要。
It makes a country in the enforcement of the public works spending and local role allotment clear more,
and, with civilian demand-induced effect and investment efficiency in mind, it is important to prepare.

⇒国は全国的見地から必要とされる基礎的・広域的事業に集中、国際競争力を強化するインフラ（ハブ空港/港湾など）や、民需誘発効果、投資効率の高い社会インフラを選択して集中投資し、ICTを用いた社会インフラ自体の生産性向上の取組を重視。
The country concentrates on basic broad-based business to be required from the nationwide standpoint and you choose infrastructure(hub airport/harbors) strengthening international competitiveness and civilian demand induction effect, high society infrastructure of theinvestment efficiency and invest it intensively and should focus on an approach of the productivity improvement of society infrastructure itself
using the ICT.

⇒地方は、地域に密着した事業、地域の特色を生かした事業を行い、コンパクトシティの形成等、地方での戦略の明確化や優先順位付を。

The district performs the business that you made use of business coherent to the area, a local characteristic in and should perform the strategic
clarification and priority order coherent linkages to the quality of the former line in the district such as the formation of the compact city.

●第二に、民間資金を一層活用すること！Second utilize a private fund still more!
⇒整備・運営の効率化や提供されるサービスの質的向上だけでなく、民間による社会インフラ整備・運営により、財政負担の軽減が見込める事業については、
民間資金を積極的に活用することが重要。
It is important to utilize private enterprise fund about the business that the reduction of the financial burden can
anticipate by society infrastructure maintenance, administration by not only the qualitative improvement of efficiency ofmaintenance, the administration and the offered service but also the private enterprise positively.
31

第三に、アセットマネジメント・リスクマネジメントの改善！
Third the asset management risk management be improved!

⇒アセットマネジメントとは、社会インフラを資産ととらえ、中長期的な視点から、社会インフラのライフサイクル全体にわたって効率的かつ効果的に維持管理・運営すること。
The asset management is to catch social infrastructure for assets and, also, is to manage
the maintenance for the whole life cycle of the social infrastructure from a medium-andlong term viewpoint effectively and effectively, and to run it.

⇒情報の整備・活用、長寿命化計画の策定、コスト面・安全面からの最適な維持管理手法の導入などの取組。
Approaches such as the introduction of the most suitable maintenance technique frommaintenance, inflection of the information, the development of the extension of life
plan, a cost side, safety⇒巨大災害からの国家のリスクマネジメント（レジリエンス）の観点か
らの脆弱性評価、ICT活用によるモニタリングなどを通じた効率的なアセットマネジメントを推進。
Promotion by the effective asset management through a fragile evaluation from theviewpoint of national risk management (resilience) from a huge disaster, themonitoring by the ICT utilization
32

４．技術は人々にどのような価値を与えているか?
What kind of value does the technique give to people?

33

MONETがつくる新しい社会
The new society which MONET makes

膨大な車両の移動情報や人流、天候、道路環境などの各種情報を、さまざまなサービス事業者が保有する個々のサービ
ス情報と連携することにより、新しい価値を提供するモビリ
ティサービスを創造。都市や街の風景を変え人々の豊かな生活を作り出していきます。
MONET creates the mobility service to provide new value by cooperatingwith the individual service information that various service companies holdthe moving information of enormous vehicles and various information suchas a person style, weather, the road environment. I change the scenery of acity and the town and create the rich life of people.

34

I want to receive a periodic medical
examination of the ○○ Hospital at △Living in the district will change!

①

Thank you for waiting

Timely arrival
I tell Dr. ○○of the ○△Hospital

I received
the state ofyour body.

Hello.
I appreciate it.

smart health check inside the car
Associated Project

Next Gen. ITS

出典：総務省電波政策ビジョン懇談会（５Ｇの周波数）35Accident prevention of the car/Navigation will change! ①
Personal Agent

Back Monitor

出典：総務省電波政策ビジョン懇談会（５Ｇの周波数）

There is a space in theparking lot of 500m ahead.

There seemed to bea vacant seat in therestaurant where
I made bookmark.
Do you go there
from now on?

36

Accident prevention of the car/Navigation will change! ②

There is a falling object

Abrupt Steering
The information of the falling
object reaches it from a carrunning the front

communicate with thefollowing car automatically

Baggage
droppedA falling object is displayed
by a monitor

a falling object offour cars earlier
Drone surveying

出典：総務省電波政策ビジョン懇談会（５Ｇの周波数）37Role of the car will change!
Self Diagnosis completed

charging by
non-contact
feeding

Go back and park
Feed electricity
automatically

Automatic medical examinationof the driver

I sense physical condition andam diagnosed and makeautomatic driving at the time of
the abnormality. I park on theshoulder automatically safely. I
report it to a hospital.

38

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