IIASA's Contribution for the Integrated Disaster Risk Management

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)“Risk” has been part of IIASA’s activity profile since the Institute’s foundation. This
theme is critical, as the prospect of unintended consequences from technological,
environmental, and social policies continues to stir intense debates that shape the futureof societies across the world. Relying on probability calculations, risk became atheoretical focus designed to bolster a scientific, mathematically-based approach toward
uncertainty and risk management.
Early controversies in the 1970’s and 1980’s on nuclear power, liquid natural gas storage,
and hazardous waste disposal – all early research topics at IIASA – made clear to theexpert community, however, that probabilistic calculations of risk, although essential tothe debates, are not sufficient to settle issues of public acceptance. In response, IIASA
has pioneered research on risk perception (Otway and Thomas 1982), “objective” versus“subjective” assessments (Kunreuther and Linnerooth 1982), systemic cultural biases(Thompson 1990) and risk and fairness (Linnerooth-Bayer 1999).
As a critical part of this history, IIASA is widely recognized for its advancements instochastic and dynamic systems optimization (e.g., Ermoliev 1988), treating endogenous
uncertainty and catastrophic risks in decision-making processes (reviewed in Amendola
et al. 2013), and advancing statistical methods for probabilistic assessment (e.g., Pflug
and Roemisch 2007). The hallmark of IIASA’s risk research is the integration of these
multiple strands of mathematical and social science research.
One important in-house model taking an integrated perspective in the RISK program at
IIASA is the so-called CatSim model (Catastrophe simulation), which focuses on thegovernment and its fiscal risk in the face of natural disaster events. It is a mainstay of
the Program’s methodological and policy research and was first developed to aid public
officials in developing countries to assess catastrophic risks from natural hazards andanalyze options to enhance their country’s financial resiliency. The model takes a“systems approach” by integrating catastrophe risk modeling with financial andeconomic modeling The model enables users to explore the impact of traditional andnovel financial instruments, including reinsurance and catastrophe bonds, terms of thecosts of reducing the risk of a financing gap. CatSim has proven useful in other contextes
as well, e.g., for allocating climate adaptation and development funds to support disaster
resilience in the most vulnerable countries. Based on the model framework, assessed
exposure and financial vulnerability to extreme weather events on the global scale canbe performed too (Hochrainer-Stigler et al. 2014)
Beyond modeling, IIASA has pioneered the exploration of novel financing instruments toprovide safety nets to vulnerable communities and governments facing climate risks(Linnerooth-Bayer, J. & Amendola 2000). These instruments now feature prominently on
the agendas of development organizations and NGOs, and they are also gaining
attention in the climate change adaptation community (Linnerooth-Bayer and
Hochrainer-Stigler, 2015). In an early influential policy paper, IIASA scientists argued−55−

that donor-supported risk-transfer programs, some based on novel instruments, would
leverage limited disaster-aid budgets and free recipient countries from depending on thevagaries of post-disaster assistance (Linnerooth-Bayer et al. 2005).
As a final mention, IIASA’s contributions to integrated disaster risk management haveincluded the design and implementation of new forms of bottom-up governance, mostnotably stakeholder processes which co-design policy options with experts, and explicitly
recognize large value differences.
References
Amendola A, Ermolieva T, Linnerooth-Bayer J, Mechler R (Eds) (2013). Integrated
Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes. Springer, Dordrecht,
Netherlands.
Ermoliev Y (ed) (1988). Numerical techniques for stochastic optimization, Springer, NewYork.
Hochrainer-Stigler S, Mechler R, Pflug GC, Williges K. (2014) Funding public adaptation
to climate-relateddisasters. Estimates for a global fund. Global Environmental Change,
25:87-96.
Linnerooth-Bayer J (1999). Climate Change and Multiple Views of Fairness. In: Fair
Weather? EquityConcerns in Climate Change, FL Toth (Ed), Earthscan Publications
Ltd., London, pp. 44-65.
Linnerooth-Bayer, J. & Amendola, A. Global Change, Natural Disasters and Losssharing: Issues of Efficiency and Equity. Geneva Pap Risk Insur Issues Pract (2000) 25:
203. doi:10.1111/1468-0440.00060
Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2015). Financial Instruments for
Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation. Climatic Change, 133(1):85-100. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1035-6.
Kunreuther H and Linnerooth-Bayer J (1983). Risk Analysis and Decision Processes:
The Siting of Liquified Energy Gas Facilities in Four Countries, Springer Verlag, Berlin.
Otway H and Thomas K. (1982) Reflections on Risk Perception and Policy. Risk Analysis,
2:69-82.
Pflug G, Römisch W (2007). Modeling, Measuring and Managing Risk. World Scientific.
Thompson M, Ellis R, Wildavsky A (1990). Cultural Theory. Westview Press.

−56−Collaboration between DPRI and IIASA
and establishment of IDRiM Society
The move to set up the IDRiM Society was based on the success of a series of nine
Forums on Integrated Disaster Risk Management organized by the Disaster
Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) of Kyoto University and the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) located in Austria. The first forum
was in 2001 which was the starting point for cross-collaboration with the aim tostrengthen a new disciplinary area of integrated disaster risk management. As
indicated, after eight annual conferences and active interactions under thisinitiative, this led ultimately to the formation of the IDRiM Society in 2009 which
officially was launched on October 15, 2009 in Kyoto, Japan, at the 9th IIASADPRI Forum on Integrated Disaster Risk Management. The launching of the
IDRiM Society was promoted also by many national and internationalorganizations including Beijing Normal University, International Institute ofEarthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), National Research Institute for
Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), the United Nations International
Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN/ISDR), the Joint Research Centre of theEuropean Commission (JRC/EC) and other organizations. The IDRiM Society was
enthusiastically welcomed and its Charter approved by more than 100
international experts, practitioners, and individuals from more than 20 different
countries working in the disaster risk management field. Since then, 7international conferences on Integrated Disaster Risk Management were heldaround the world, including Austria, USA, China, the U.K., Canada, India and Iran.

−57−

Past IIASA-DPRI Conferences

9th IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Kyoto

12-16 OctoberManagement:

Japan.

2009

8th IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Induno-1-2 September

Management:

Olona Italy

2008

7th IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Stresa19-

Management:

Italy

21September“Scientific Challenges in Implementing Integrated Disaster Risk
Management in a Changing World.”“Integration and Multi-disciplinarity.” .

“Coping with Disasters: Global Challenge for the 21st Century

2007

and Beyond.”
6th IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Istanbul

13-17 AugustManagement:

Turkey2006

5th IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Beijing

14-18

Management:

China

September“Risk and Challenges for Business and Industry.”

2005“Innovations in Science and Policy.”
4th IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Ravello

3-7 JulyManagement:

Italy

2004

3rd IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Kyoto

3-5 JulyManagement:

Japan

2003

2nd IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Laxenbourg

29-31 July

Management:

Austria2002

1st IIASA-DPRI Conference on Integrated Disaster Risk

Laxenbourg

1-4 AugustManagement:

Austria

2001“Challenges and Implementation.”“Coping with Regional Vulnerability.”“Megacity Vulnerability and Resilience.”“Reducing Socio-Economic Vulnerability.”−58−

http://www.idrim.org/?page_id=43

2016/11/29

Annual Conferences of IDRiM Society
The 1st Conference of the International Society for

University Natural

1 – 4,

Integrated Disaster Risk Management

Resources and applied

September(IDRiM2010) :Life Sciences

2010.

Sharing IDRiM experiences under different

Vienna,socio-economic and cultural contexts

Austria

The 2nd Conference of the International Society

the University of

14-16

for Integrated Disaster Risk Management

Southern California

July(IDRiM2011):(USC),

2011

Reframing Disasters and Identifying Deficits in

Los Angeles,

Risk Governance

United States

The 3rd Conference of the International Society for

Beijing Normal

7-9

Integrated Disaster Risk Management

University

September(IDRiM2012) :Beijing,

2012

From surprise to Rationality: Managing

China

unprecedented Large-Scale Disasters
The 4th Conference of the International Society for

Northumbria University,

4-6

Integrated Disaster Risk Management

Newcastle upon Tyne,

September(IDRiM2013):

UK

2013

The 5th Conference of the International Society forWestern University,

30 OctoberIntegrated Disaster Risk Management

London, Ontario,–1(IDRiM2014):

CanadaNovember

From Opportunity to Action: Bridging the Gap
between Disaster Reduction and Development
through Science(s), Technology and People
Centred Actions

Building Disaster Resilient Communities

2014

The 6th Conference of the International Society for

Scope Convention

28̺30

Integrated Disaster Risk Management

Centre, New Delhi,

October(IDRiM2015):

India

2015

The 7th Annual Conference of the International

Hotel Abbasi,

1–3

Society for Integrated Disaster Risk Management

Isfahan,

October(IDRiM 2016):

Iran

2016

Disaster Risk Reduction: Challenges andOpportunities for Sustainable Growth

Disasters and Development: Towards a Risk
Aware Society

−59−

−60−

2016/11/30

Risk and Resilience - Risk and Resilience - IIASA

Risk and Resilience
The Risk and Resilience (RISK) Program aims to better understand the risks toeconomic, ecological, and social systems arising from global change and to helptransform the ways in which societies manage them.
Society needs to make effective responses to the risks
associated with global change. To that end, scientists must
understand the systemic and dynamic linkages ofenvironmental, social, and economic risks and how these are
impacted by different policy measures. This will enable risk
management and governance systems to be improved inorder to facilitate long-term sustainable development.

CONTACT DETAILSJoanne Linnerooth-Bayer
Acting Program Director
Risk and Resilience
YSSP Dean
Young Scientists Summer Program
T +43(0) 2236 807 308

Systems analysis, risk modeling, and transformative
governance are fundamental to the mission of Risk &Resilience (RISK). The Program examines environmental andsocioeconomic risks and policy options across multiple spatial
Woman with Orange Umbrella. Muddy
and temporal scales to provide an analytical foundation forRoad China © Pavliha | iStock
improved management and governance of natural disasters,
address climate change, and ease the technological and ecological transitions to sustainability.

bayer@iiasa.ac.at

The Program has four specific goals:

CONTACT DETAILSTo advance the conceptual and methodological development of risk and vulnerability
research
To carry out selected risk and vulnerability assessments
To carry out integrative stakeholder-led case studies, andTo develop interactive tools for training on vulnerability and adaptation.
The program builds on the methodologies, activities and experience gained from the previous
IIASA Risk, Modeling and Society (RMS) and Risk, Policy and Vulnerability Programs. It integrates
across other IIASA programs and links closely with the vulnerability/resilience researchcommunities.

Risk analysis and modeling
The Risk Analysis and Modeling research theme investigates how to manage the risks
arising in socio-ecological systems, including risks from climate extremes and othertypes of hazards. More

Risk Management and Adaptation
This thematic research area focuses on developing policy-relevant methodologicalinsight for informing risk management and adaptation strategies; the aim of which isto support the multi-scale integration of agendas on risk management, climatechange adaptation and sustainable socio-economic development. More

Reinhard Mechler
Deputy Program Director
Risk and Resilience
T +43(0) 2236 807 313
mechler@iiasa.ac.at

SUBSCRIBE TO THE
IIASA NEWSLETTERNEWS
ASA researchers participated in
the international workshop on
Heterogeneous Dynamic Modelsof Economic and Population
Systems
02 December 2016
Study maps the climate impactof agriculture
29 November 2016
Executive Assistant (m/f) to the
Director General/CEO
29 November 2016

Governance in Transition
The Governance in Transition research theme analyzes how governance structures
shape decisions and subsequent outcomes by building on and contributing toresearch on decision-making processes, public acceptance, risk perception, cognitive
biases, and cultural perspectives, as well as participatory governance design. More

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/RISK/RISK-home.html

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1/1

From Kobe to Sendai.
Tracing progress in risk discourse and analysis for
informing risk management and climate adaptation.
Reinhard Mechler
Deputy Program Director, Risk and Resilience Program, IIASA

Risks associated with natural disasters and climate change rank high among global
socio-economic sustainability challenges. These risks, the outcomes of coupled socio-ecologicalsystems' interactions, can lead to large adverse developmental consequences (erosion of
livelihoods, increase in poverty, loss of human, economic, environmental and social assets,
migration) and have been at the centre of attention of disaster management and climate
negotiations. Concepts, methodologies, methods and metrics associated with risk have beenof fundamental and increasing saliency for informing policy and action on these interlinked
challenges. The talk traces the evolution in conceptualisation, modelling and assessment aswell as policy related to risk analysis for the examination and management of disaster andclimate risks. Building on work done by the presenter with many colleagues, the central lineof argumentation of the talk is to show how thinking and analysis on disaster andclimate-related risk over the last few years has seen important evolution towards
broad-based debate concurrently encompassing epistemological, instrumental, reflective andparticipative discourses, thus providing great potential for informing action on key challenges
associated with extreme event risks across multiple scales along the science-society interface.

−62−Dr. Reinhard Mechler
Personal Profile
Reinhard Mechler has more than 15 years of experience working on the economics of disaster risk,
risk modelling and climate change. He currently is deputy director of the ‘Risk, Policy, Vulnerability’research program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and a seniorlecturer at the University for Economics and Business in Vienna. Specific interests of his include
catastrophe risk modelling, the impacts of extreme events and climate change on development, theuse of novel risk financing mechanisms for sharing disaster risks, and the assessment of the efficiency
and equity of climate change response measures. He was a lead author on IPCC’s special report on
adaptation to extreme events (SREX) and is a lead author on the chapter on the Economics ofAdaptation in the upcoming 5th assessment report. He has been leading and contributing to many
projects for international and donor organizations including the European Commission, DFID, CIDA,
the UN, ProVention Consortium, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, Inter-American Development
Bank, Caribbean Development Bank and GIZ.
Areas of expertise
Economics of natural disaster risk management and adaptation, disaster risk sharing instruments andinsurance, systems modelling, climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, development
economics, ecological economics.
Editorial boards
Climate Risk Management, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, @Risk
Qualifications
2003. Ph.D. Economics University of Karlsruhe, Germany
1998 Diploma in Economics, University of Heidelberg, Germany
1993-1994 Academic year, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, USA
B.A. equivalents Economics 1995, Mathematics 1992, English 1992
Positions held
2013 to present Deputy program leader “Risk, Policy, Vulnerability,” IIASA2006 to 2013
Leader research group “Disasters, Adaptation and Development,” IIASA2009 to present Senior lecturer at Vienna University of Economics and Business1999 to 2006
Research scholar, IIASA1998 to 2001
Ph. D. researcher, University of Karlsruhe
1994 to 1998
Research Assistant, Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW),
Mannheim
Languages
EnglishFluentGermanMother tongue
SpanishBasic
FrenchBasic
Italian
Basic

−63−

Peer-reviewed publications
Jongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J., Mechler, R., Botzen, W., Bouwer, L., Pflug, G.,
Rojas, R., Ward, P. (2014). Reply to 'Statistics of flood risk.' Nature Climate Change, 4:844-845
Mechler R. & Bouwer, L. Reviewing trends and projections of global disaster losses and climatechange: Is vulnerability the missing link? Climatic Change, Published online 12 August 2014.
Mochizuki, J., Mechler, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Keating, A., Williges, K. (2014). Revisiting the"disaster and development" debate - Toward a broader understanding of macroeconomic risk
and resilience. Climate Risk Management, Article in press (Published online 22 May 2014).
Scolobig, A., Mechler, R., Komendantova, N., Liu, W., Schroeter, D., Patt, A. (2014). The co-productionof scientific advice and decision making under uncertainty: Lessons from the 2009 L'Aquila
earthquake, Italy. GRF Davos Planet@Risk, 2(2):71-76
Mechler, R. Bouwer, L., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Aerts, J., Surminski, S. (2014).
Managing unnatural disaster risk from climate extremes. Nature Climate Change 4, 235-237
Jongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J., Mechler, R., Botzen, W., Bouwer, L., Pflug, G.,
Rojas, R., Ward, P. (2014). Increasing stress on disaster risk finance due to large floods. Nature
Climate Change 4, 264-268
Scrieciu, S. Chalabi, Z., Belton, V. Mechler, R. (2014). Advancing Methodological Thinking and Practicefor Development-Compatible Climate Policy Planning. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Global Change doi.org/10.1007/s11027-013-9538-z.
Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G., Williges, K. (2014). Funding Public Adaptation to Climaterelated Disasters. Estimates for a Global Climate Fund. Global Environmental Change 25, 87-96
Mechler, R., Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2014). Revisiting Arrow-Lind: Managing sovereign disaster risk.
Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research 6 (1): 93-100
Kundzewicz, Z.W., Kanae, S., Seneviratne, S.I., Handmer, J., Nicholls, N., Peduzzi, P., Mechler, R.
Bouwer, L., Arnell, N., Mach, K., Muir-Wood, R. Brakenridge, G.R., Kron, W., Benito, G., Honda,
Y., Takahashi, K., Sherstyukov, B. (2013). Flood risk and climate change – global and regional
perspectives. Hydrological Sciences Journal 59 (1): 1-28
Kull, D., Mechler, R. Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2013). Probabilistic Cost-Benefit Anaysis of Disaster Risk
Management in a Development Context. Disasters 37(3): 374-400.
Rezai, A. Taylor, L., Mechler, R. (2013). Ecological Climate Economics. Climate Policy and Economic
Growth. Ecological Economics 85:69-76.
Scrieciu, S., Rezai, A., Mechler, R. (2013). On the economic foundations of green growth discourses:
the case of climate change mitigation and macroeconomic dynamics in economic modeling. WIREs
Energy and Environment 2 (3): 251-268.
Michel-Kerjan, E., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Kunreuther, H., Linnerooth-Bayer, Mechler, R. Muir-Wood,
R., Ranger, N., Vaziri, P., and Young, M. (2012). Catastrophe Risk Models for Evaluating Disaster
Risk Reduction Investments in Developing Countries. Risk Analysis 33(6): 984-999
Lal, P., Mitchell, T., Aldunce, P., Auld, H., Mechler, R. Miyan, A., Romano, L., Zakaria, S. (2012).
Chapter 6. National Systems for Managing the Risks from Climate Extremes and Disasters. In:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme
Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F.,
Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S., Tignor, M.
and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York,NY, USA: 339-392.
Murray, V., G. McBean, M. Bhatt, S. Borsch, T.S. Cheong, W.F. Erian, S. Llosa, F. Nadim, M. Nunez, R.
Oyun, A.G. Suarez (Lead authors) and Mechler, R. et al. (Contributing authors) (2012). Casestudies. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change
Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J.
Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen,͒M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working
Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University−64−Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 487-542
O’Brien, K., M. Pelling, A. Patwardhan, S. Hallegatte, A. Maskrey, T. Oki, U. Oswald-Spring, T.
Wilbanks, P.Z. Yanda (Lead authors) and Mechler, R. et al. (Contributing authors) (2012). Toward asustainable and resilient future. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to
Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L.
Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach,͒G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A
Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 437-486.
Cardona, O.D., M.K. van Aalst, J. Birkmann, M. Fordham, G. McGregor, R. Perez, R.S. Pulwarty, E.L.F.
Schipper, and B.T. Sinh (Lead authors) and Mechler, R. et al. (Contributing authors) (2012).
Determinants of risk: exposure and vulnerability. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events andDisasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J.
Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M.
Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 65108.
Handmer, J., Y. Honda, Z.W. Kundzewicz, N. Arnell, G. Benito, J. Hatfield, I.F. Mohamed, P. Peduzzi, S.
Wu, B. Sherstyukov,͒K. Takahashi, Z. Yan (Lead authors) and Mechler, R. et al. (Contributing
authors) (2012). Changes in impacts of climate extremes: human systems and ecosystems. In:
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field,
C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin,͒D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K.
Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and
II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press,
Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 231-290.
Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Sharma, R.B, and Mechler, R. (2012). Disaster Microinsurance forPro-Poor Risk
Management: Evidence from South Asia. Journal of Integrated Disaster Risk Management, 2(2): 119.
IPCC (2011). Summary for Policymakers. In: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special
Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change
Adaptation [Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D.,
Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R. (2011). Insurance against Losses from Natural
Disasters in Developing Countries. Evidence, gaps and the way forward. Journal of Integrated
Disaster Risk Management DOI10.5595/idrim.2011.0013
van Vuuren, D., Isaac, M., Kundzewicz, Z., Arnell, N., Barker, T., Criqui, P., Berkhout, F., Hilderink, H.,
Hinkel, J., Hof, A., Kitous, A., Kram, T., Mechler, R., Scrieciu, S. (2011). The use of scenarios as thebasis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation, Global Environmental
Change, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.11.003.
Hochrainer, S. and Mechler, R. (2011). Natural Disaster Risk in Asian Megacities: A Case for Risk
Pooling? Cities. DOI 10.1016/j.cities.2010.09.00
Mechler, R., Rezai, A., Stagl, S. (2010). Is Green Growth feasible? Some reflections and implications
for Austria. Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter (4): 451-465.
Mechler, R. and Z.W. Kundzewicz (2010). Assessing adaptation to extreme weather events in
Europe—Editorial. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15 (7): 611-620.
Aakre, S., I. Banaszak, R. Mechler, D. Rübbelke, A. Wreford and H. Kalirai (2010). Financial adaptation
to disaster risk in the European Union. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15(7): 721-736
Mechler, R., S. Hochrainer, A. Aaheim, H. Salen and A. Wreford (2010). Modelling economic impacts−65−and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies. Mitigation and
Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15 (7): 737-762
Hochrainer , S., J. Linnerooth-Bayer and R. Mechler (2010). The European Union Solidarity Fund.
Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 15 (7): 797-810
Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R., Kull, D. (2010). Micro-Insurance Against Drought Risk in a Changing
Climate: Assessing demand and supply considerations. International Journal of Climate Change
Strategies and Management, doi 10.1108/17568691011040407.
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Suarez, P., Victor, M. and Mechler, R. (2009). Drought insurance for subsistence
farmers in Malawi. Natural Hazards Observer 33 (5): 1-8.
Patt, A., van Vuuren, D., Berkhout, F., Aaheim, A., Hof, A., Isaac, M., Mechler, R. (2009). Adaptation in
integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand? Climatic Change, doi 10.1007/s10584-0099687
Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G. (2009). Climate change and financial adaptation in Africa:
Investigating the impact of climate change on the robustness of index-based microinsurance inMalawi. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 14: 231-250
Lugeri, N., Hochrainer, S. and Mechler, R. (2009). Going to Extremes. European Research andInnovation Review 8: 22-23
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R. (2007). Disaster safety nets for developing countries: Extending
public-private partnerships. Environmental Hazards 7: 54-61
Cardenas, V., Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G., Linnerooth-Bayer, J. (2007). Sovereign financial
disaster risk management: the case of Mexico. Environmental Hazards 7: 40-53
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., R. Mechler and M.J. Mace (2007). Insurance for Assisting Adaptation to Climate
Change in developing countries. A proposed strategy. Climate Policy 6 : 621-636
Hochrainer, S., and R. Mechler (2006). Naturkatastrophen: Auswirkungen, Loesungsansaetze undRollen fuer Wissenschaft, Staat und Wirtschaft. Wirtschaftspolitische Blätter 4: 561-579
Derwent, R.G., P.G. Simmonds, S. O’Doherty, D.S. Stevenson, W.J. Collins, M.G. Sanderson, C.E.
Johnson, F. Dentener, J. Cofala, R. Mechler, and M. Amann (2006). External influences on Europe’s
air quality: Baseline methane, carbon monoxide and ozone from 1990 to 2030 at Mace Head,
Ireland. Atmospheric Environment, 40: 844-855
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., R. Mechler, G. Pflug (2005). Refocusing Disaster Aid. Science 309: 1044-1046
Freeman, P., L. Martin, R. Mechler, K. Warner (2004). A Methodology for Incorporating Natural
Catastrophes into Macroeconomic Projections. Disaster Prevention and Management 13: 337-342
Derwent, R., S. Stevenson, R. Doherty, W. Collins, M. Sanderson, C. Johnson, J. Cofala, R. Mechler, M.
Amann, F. Dentener (2004). The Contribution from Shipping Emissions to Air Quality and Acid
Deposition in Europe. AMBIO 34: 54–59
Dentener, F., D. Stevenson, J. Cofala, R. Mechler, M. Amann, P. Bergamaschi, F. Raes, R. Derwent(2004). The impact of air pollutant and methane emission controls on tropospheric ozone andradiative forcing: CTM calculations for the period 1990-2030. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Discussions 4, 8471-8538
Werner, U., R. Mechler, T. Plapp (2003). Hochwasser 2002 - Wechselwirkungen zwischen derFinanzierung von Überschwemmungsschäden und der Wahrnehmung von Hochwasserrisiken.
Zeitschrift für Versicherungswesen 54: 722-727
Books
Amendola, A., Ermolieva, T., Linnerooth-Bayer, Mechler, R. (eds.) (2013). Integrated Catastrophe Risk
Modeling. Supporting Policy Processes. Springer, Heidelberg
Mechler, R. (2004). Natural Disaster Risk Management and Financing Disaster Losses in Developing−66−

Countries, Verlag für Versicherungswirtschaft, Karlsruhe.
Book chapters
Mitchell, T., Mechler, R., Harris, K (2014). Economics of adaptation to extreme events. Book chapter.
In Markandya, A. Sainz de Murieta, E. Galarraga, I. Handbook on the Economics of Adaptation.
Routledge.
Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Pflug, G (2013). Public sector financial vulnerability
to disasters: The IIASA CATSIM model. In; Measuring Vulnerability to Natural Hazards: Towards
Disaster Resilient Societies, J Birkmann (ed.)͒United Nations University Press, Tokyo, Japan,
pp.380-398
Mechler R. (2013). Modeling aggregate economic risk: an introduction. In Integrated Catastrophe
Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes, A. Amendola, T. Ermolieva, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, and R.
Mechler͒Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp. 95-102
Mechler R, Hochrainer-Stigler S, Nakano K. (2013). Managing indirect economic consequences ofdisaster risk: the case of Nepal. In Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy
Processes, A. Amendola, T. Ermolieva, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, and R. Mechler͒Springer, Dordrecht,
The Netherlands pp.145-169
Amendola A, Ermolieva T, Linnerooth-Bayer J, Mechler R (2013). Catastrophe models for informing
risk management: An introduction. In: Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy
Processes, A. Amendola, T. Ermolieva, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, R. Mechler (eds)͒Springer, Dordrecht,
The Netherlands, pp.3-12
Hochrainer-Stigler S, Mechler R, Pflug G (2013). Modeling macro scale disaster risk: the CATSIM
model. In Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes, A. Amendola, T.
Ermolieva, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, and R. Mechler (eds)͒Springer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
pp.119-144
Hochrainer, S. and Mechler, R. (2013). Assessing Financial Adaptation Strategies to Extreme Events in
Europe. In: Siebenhüner, B., Arnold, M., Eisenack, K., and Jacob,H. K. (eds.): Long-Term
Governance for Social-Ecological Change. New York, Routledge: 93-112.
Mechler, R. and Islam, N. (2013). Cost Benefit Analysis of Disaster Risk Management and Climate
Adaptation in Bangladesh. In: D. Guha-Sapir and I. Santos. The Economic Impacts of Natural
Disasters. Assessing the Costs of Prevention, Mitigation and Adaptation, Cambridge University:
Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Aaheim, A., Kundzewicz, Z., Lugeri, N., Moriondo, M., Salen, H., Bindi, M.,
Banaszak, I., Chorynski, A., Genovese, E., Kalirai, H., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Lavalle, C., McEvoy, D.,
Matczak, P., Radziejewski, M., Rübbelke, D., Schelhaas, M.-J., Szwed, M., Wreford, A. (2010). A risk
management approach for assessing adaptation to changing flood and drought risks in Europe. In:
M. Hulme, H. Neufeldt (eds.). Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Cambridge University: 200-229
Aaheim, A., Dokken, T., Hochrainer, S., Hof, A., Jochem, E., Mechler, R., van Vuuren, D., Neufeldt, H.,
Wei. T. (2010). National responsibilities for adaptation strategies: Lessons from four modelling
frameworks. In: M. Hulme, H. Neufeldt (eds.). Making Climate Change Work for Us: European
Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Cambridge University: 87-112
van Vuuren, D, Isaac, M., Kundzewicz, Z., Arnell, N,Barker, T., Criqui, P., Bauer, N., Berkhout, F.,
Hilderink, H., Hinkel, J., Hochrainer, S., Hof , A., Kitous, A., Kram, T., Lugeri, N., Mechler, R.,
Scrieciu, S. (2010). Scenarios as the Basis for Assessment of Mitigation and Adaptation. In: M.
Hulme, H. Neufeldt (eds.). Making Climate Change Work for Us: European Perspectives on
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Cambridge University: 54-86
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R., Bals, C. (2010). Insurance Instruments for Adapting to Climate Risks.
Considerations for the Bali Roadmap. In: M. Hulme, H. Neufeldt (eds.). Making Climate ChangeWork for Us: European Perspectives on Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies. Cambridge
University: 340-365 Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R. (2008). Assessing financial and economic−67−

vulnerability to natural hazards: bridging the gap between scientific assessment and theimplementation of disaster risk management with the CatSim model. Patt, A., Schröter, D., Klein,R., de la Vega-Leinert, A. (eds). Assessing Vulnerability to Global Environmental Change. Earthscan.
Mechler, R., J. Linnerooth-Bayer, S. Hochrainer, G. Pflug (2006). Assessing Financial Vulnerability and
Coping Capacity: The IIASA CATSIM Model. In J. Birkmann (ed.). Measuring Vulnerability and
Coping Capacity to Hazards of Natural Origin. Concepts and Methods. United Nations University
Press, Tokyo: 380-398
Mechler, R. (2004). Macroeconomic impacts of natural disasters. In K. Demeter, N.E. Erkan, A. Guner(eds). The Role of Local Governments in Reducing the Risk of Disasters. The World Bank Institute,
Washington, DC: 35-47
Mechler, R. (2003). Natural Disaster Risk and Cost-Benefit Analysis. In A. Kreimer et al. (eds.). The
Future of Disaster Risk: Building Safer Cities. World Bank, Washington DC: 45-56
Mechler, R. (2001). Naturkatastrophen und Globaler Wandel. in: W. Schulz et al. Lexikon Nachhaltiges
Wirtschaften. R. Oldenbourg-Verlag, München: 253-259
Reports, working papers and conference proceedings
Kumar, A., Arambepola, N,, Mechler, R., and Hochrainer-Stigler, S. (2012). An Approach for National
Earthquake Risk Assessment: Case Study for Nepal. Proceedings of the 15th World Conferenceon Earthquake Engineering (WCEE), Lisbon, Portugal.
Mitchell, T., Mechler, R., Harris, K. (2012). Tackling exposure: placing disaster risk management at theheart of national economic and fiscal policy. CDKN guidance note. Climate and Development
Knowledge Network (CDKN)- Overseas Development Institute (ODI)
Bräuninger, M., Butzengeiger-Geyer, S., Dlugolecki, A., Hochrainer, S., Köhler,K., Linnerooth-Bayer, J.,
Mechler, R., Michaelowa, A.,Schulze, S. (2011). Application of economic instruments foradaptation to climate change. Report to the European Commission, Directorate General CLIMA,
Brussels.
Bhavnani Sharma, R., Hochrainer, S. and Mechler, R. (2010). Impact Assessment of Disaster
Microinsurance for Pro-Poor Risk Management: Evidence from South Asia. All India Disaster
Management Institute (AIDMI), Ahemadabad, Gujarat, India.
Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Pflug, G., Lotsch, A. with Williges, K. (2010). Assessing the Financial
Vulnerability to Climate-Related Natural Hazards. Background Paper for the Development andClimate Change World Development Report 2010. Policy Research Working Paper 5232. World
Bank, Washington, DC.
Mechler, R. (2009). Disasters and Economic Welfare. Can National Savings Help Explain Post-disaster
Changes in Consumption? World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4988, The World Bank
Sustainable Development Network and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery Unit.
Kunreuther, H., Michel-Kerjan, E., Hochrainer, S., Kull, D., Linnerooth-Bayer, J. Mechler, R., MuirWood, R., Ranger, N., Vaziri, P., Young, M. (2009). The Challenges and Importance of Investing in
Cost Effective Measures for Reducing Losses From Natural Disasters in Emerging Economies.
Report for the World Bank Global Faciility for Disaster Risk ReDuction (GFDRR).
Mechler, R., Hochrainer, S., Kull, D., Chopre, S., Singh, P., Opitz-Stapleton, S., Wajih, S. (2009). Uttar
Pradesh Drought Cost-Benefit Analysis. Risk to Resilience Working Paper 5. Moench, M., Caspari,
E. & A. Pokhrel (eds.), ISET, ISET-Nepal and ProVention, Kathmandu, Nepal. Provention
Consortium, Geneva.
Moench, M., Ahmed, S., Mustafa, D., Khan, F., Mechler, R., Kull, D., Dixit, A., Opitz-Stapleton, S., and
The Risk to Resilience Study Team (2009). Moving from Concepts to Practice: A Process andMethodology Summary for Identifying Effective Avenues for Risk Management Under Changing
Climatic Conditions. From Risk to Resilience Working Paper No. 8. Moench, M., Caspari, E. & A.
Pokhrel (eds.), ISET, ISET-Nepal and ProVention, Kathmandu, Nepal.

−68−Mechler, R. (2009). From Risk to Resilience. The Cost-Benefit Analysis Methodology. From Risk to
Resilience Working Paper No. 1. Moench, M., Caspari, E. & A. Pokhrel (eds.), ISET, ISET-Nepal and
ProVention, Kathmandu, Nepal. Provention Consortium, Geneva.
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., C. Bals, R. Mechler (2008). Insurance Instruments for Adapting to Climate Risks.
A Proposal for the Bali Action Plan. Germanwatch, Bonn.
Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and R. Mechler (2008). Insurance against Losses from Natural Disasters in
Developing Countries. Background paper for United Nations World Economic and Social Survey(WESS).
Aaheim, A., Berkhout, F., McEvoy, D., Mechler, R., Neufeldt, H. Patt, A. Watkiss, P., Wreford,A.,
Kundzewicz, Z., Lavalle, C., Egenhofer, C. (2008). Adaptation to Climate Change: Why is it needed
and how can it be implemented? Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Policy Brief, Brussel.
Mechler, R., S. Hochrainer, K. Williges (2008). The special nature of natural disaster risk in Asian
megacities. A case for megacity risk pooling? ADB conference “Natural Catastrophe Risk Insurance
Mechanisms for Asia and the Pacific”. 04-05 November 2008, Tokyo, Japan
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Bals, C. and Mechler, R. (2008).Climate Change: What Role for Insurance? IIASAPolicy Brief #04, IIASA.
Aaheim, A., Berkhout, F., McEvoy, D., Mechler, R., Neufeldt, H. Patt, A. Watkiss, P., Wreford,A.,
Kundzewicz, Z., Lavalle, C., Egenhofer, C. (2008). Adaptation to Climate Change: Why is it needed
and how can it be implemented? Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) Policy Brief, Brussel.
Hochrainer, S., Mechler, R., Pflug, G., Lotsch, A. (2008). Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on
the Robustness of Index-based Microinsurance in Malawi. World Bank Policy Research Working
Paper 4631. Development Research Group, The World Bank: Washington DC.
Moench, M., Mechler, R. and S. Stapleton (2007). Guidance Note on the Costs and Benefits ofDisaster Risk Reduction. Prepared for UN - ISDR High Level Platform on Disaster Risk Reduction,
Geneva, June 4-7, 2007.
Tanner, T., Hassan, A., Islam, K., Conway, D., Mechler, R., Ahmed, A. and Alam, M. (2007). ORCHID
Piloting Climate Risk Screening in DFID Bangladesh. Detailed Research Report. Institute ofDevelopment Studies, University of Sussex, UK.
Tanner, T., Hassan, A., Islam, K., Conway, D., Mechler, R., Ahmed, A. and Alam, M. (2007). ORCHID:
Piloting Climate Risk Screening in DFID Bangladesh. Summary Research Report. Institute ofDevelopment Studies, University of Sussex, UK.
Islam, K. and Mechler, R. (2007). ORCHID: Piloting Climate Risk Screening in DFID Bangladesh. An
Economic and Cost Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Options. Institute of Development Studies,
University of Sussex, UK
Mechler, R., J. Linnerooth-Bayer, and D. Peppiatt (2006). Microinsurance for natural disaster risks?
Insights from a ProVention/IIASA research initiative. In S. Nicklin, B. Cornwell, and S. Fairbrother(eds.). Real Risk. Leicester, Tudor Rose: 41-42
Mechler, R. and J. Linnerooth-Bayer (2006). Potential Benefits and Limitations of Micro-Insurance asa Risk Transfer Mechanism for Developing Countries, in Micro-finance and disaster risk reduction.
In P.G. Chakrabarti and M. Bhatt (eds.). New Delhi, Knowledge World: 219-225
Mechler, R., J. Linnerooth-Bayer with D. Peppiatt (2006). Disaster Insurance for the Poor? A
ProVention/IIASA study. A review of microinsurance for natural disaster risks in developing
countries. Provention consortium, Geneva.
Bals, C., Burton, I., Butzengeiger, S., Dlugolecki, A., Gurenko, E., Hoekstra, E., Höppe, P., Kumar, R.,
Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R., Warner, K. (2005). Insurance-related Options for Adaptation to
Climate Change. Executive summary for report on occasion of UNFCCC COP meeting, Montreal,
The Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII).

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Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and R. Mechler (2005). Financing Disaster Risks in developing and emergingeconomy countries. Policy Issues in Insurance No. 08: Catastrophic Risks and Insurance. OECD,
Paris: 105-162
Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and R. Mechler (2005). Insurance-related mechanisms for assisting developing
countries adapt to Climate Change. In Bals, C., Burton, I., Butzengeiger, S., Dlugolecki, A.,
Gurenko, E., Hoekstra, E., Höppe, P. , Kumar, R., Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Mechler, R., Warner, K.
(2005). Insurance-related Options for Adaptation to Climate Change. Report on occasion of
UNFCCC COP meeting, Montreal, The Munich Climate Insurance Initiative (MCII): 38-58.
Hoeglund-Isaksson, L., R. Mechler (2005). The GAINS Model for Greenhouse Gases - Version 1.0:
Methane (CH4). IIASA Interim Report. IIASA Interim Report IR-05-054 .
Mechler, R. (2005). Cost-benefit analysis of natural disaster risk management in developing
countries. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), Eschborn.
Mechler, R. and J. Weichselgartner (2003). Disaster Loss Financing in Germany – The Case of the ElbeRiver Floods 2002. Interim Report IR-03-021. IIASA, Laxenburg.
Linnerooth-Bayer, J. and R. Mechler (2003). Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Burden Sharing,
Pro-active Strategies for Implementation of Article 4.8 of the UNFCCC, Background paper for
UNDP SIDS workshop on Insurance and Climate-Related Extreme Weather Events, Milan.
Freeman, P., L. Martin, R. Mechler, K. Warner (2003). A Methodology for Incorporating Natural
Catastrophes into Macroeconomic Projections. in: van der Veen, A., A. L. Vetere Arellano and J.-P.
Nordvik (2003). Proceedings: Joint NEDIES and University of Twente Workshop - In search of acommon methodology for damage estimation. Report EUR 20997 EN (2003), Bruxelles, Office for
Official Publications of the European Communities, European Union: 151-165.
Freeman, P. K., L. A. Martin, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, R. Mechler, G. Pflug and K. Warner (2003). Disaster
Risk Management: National Systems for the Comprehensive Management of Disaster Risk and
Financial Strategies for Natural Disaster Reconstruction. Inter-American Development Bank,
Washington DC.
Mechler, R., M. Amann and W. Schoepp (2002). Methodology to Estimate Changes in Statistical Life
Expectancy Due to the Control of Particulate Matter in Air Pollution. IIASA Interim Report IR-02035.
Mechler, R., M. Amann and W. Schöpp (2002). Preliminary estimates of changes in statistical life
expectancy due to the control of particulate matter air pollution in Europe. EMEP Co-operative
Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in
Europe. Transboundary Particulate Matter in Europe: Status report 2002. Kjeller, Norway: 61-89.
Obersteiner, M., C. Azar, S. Kossmeier, R. Mechler, K. Moellersten, S. Nilsson, K. Read, Y. Yamagata,
J. Yan (2002). Managing Climate Risk, Interim Report IR-01-051. Laxenburg, Austria, IIASA.
Freeman, P., L. Martin, J. Linnerooth-Bayer, R. Mechler, S. Saldana, K. Warner and G. Pflug (2002).
Financing Reconstruction. Phase II Background Study for the Inter-American Development Bank
Regional Policy Dialogue on National Systems for Comprehensive Disaster Management. InterAmerican Development Bank, Washington DC.
Freeman, P., L. Martin, R. Mechler, K. Warner with P. Hausman (2002). Catastrophes andDevelopment, Integrating Natural Catastrophes into Development Planning, Disaster Risk
Management Working Paper Series No. 4. World Bank, Washington DC.

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