REGENERATION
from the East Japan Great Earthquake

February 21st, 2012
Takashi ONISHI
Professor, the University of Tokyo
President, Science Council of Japan

Gratitude and Contents• Thanks
Th k forf theh help
h l andd theh sympathy
h fromfoverseas tothe stricken areas of the East Japan Great Earthquake.
(t bl off contents)(tablet t)
1. Disaster
2. Recovery activities headed
h d dbby governments
3. Lessons of the disaster and principal direction ofrecovery plansl
4. The present disaster as verification of the pastdisaster prevention plans
5. Economic regeneration through Machizukuri company1. What was the East Japan GreatDisaster like?
• CCompoundd DisasterDi t –Earthquagke,
E thk Tunami
Ti andd Nuclear
N lPowerP
Generation Accident• Wide Areas Stricken– Stricken Areas: Death casualty in 11 prefectures and heavily in 3
prefectures and about 40 local municipalities– Damage: More than 19 thousand people killed, more than 120
b ildibuildings
completelyl t l b
broken,k andd th
the amountt off ddamage reached
h d 1616.9
9trillion yen, 1.7 times as much as that of Hanshin/Awaji great
Earthquake in 1995

• Repeated Tsunami –Jogan Tunami(869),Tunami(869) Keicho Tunami(1611),Tunami(1611) Meiji
Sanriku Tsunami(1896), Shouwa Sanriku Tsunami(1933), Chile(1960),
East Japan(2011)• Disaster in Depopulated Areas – The population in Affected Areas,
Areas
which is Pacific Coastal areas of North‐East Japan, has been losing
its population by 5% every 5 years

Casualties (Death+Unknown)(person)
25000
20000
15000
10000
50000
Iwate pref. Miyagi pref. Fukushima 3 pref.s all
pref.
fJapan allMunicipalities more than 100 casualties(d h(death+unknown)
k)
4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
5000

Shinchi townnIwanuma cityy

Tagajo citynNamie town

Iwaki cityy

Watari townnSouma citty

Ofunato citty

Miyako cityy

Minami‐Souma citty

Sendai cityy

Yaamamoto townn

Yamada townnMinamii‐Sanriku townnNatori cityy

Onagawa town
On

Kamaishi citty

Higashhi‐Matsushimaa

Ootsuchi town
On

Kesennuma city

Rikuzzen‐Takata citty

Ishinomaki citty

Sanriku area (Rias)
South of Sendai (Plain)

Amount of Damage• The amount of damage in the Great Eastp Earthquakeqis estimated 16.9 trillion
Japanyen ( 240 billion US$) by the government.
– Buildings 10.4
10 4 trillion yen– Life lines 1.3 trillion yen– Social infrastructure 2.2 trillion yen– Agriculture, forestry and fishery 1.9 trillion yen

Tsunamis hit Sanriku‐area
Meiji Sanriku
Earthquake
Tsunami, 1896

At 19:32 , June 15th. Mw 8.2. Seismic intensity was not strong. The firsttsunami was hit 30 minutes later.
later 38.2m
38 2m high at Ryori Bay.
Bay Death 21.9
21 9thousands.

Showa Sanriku
Earthquake
Tsunami, 1933

At 3:30, March 3rd. Mw8.1. Seismic intensity was about 5. Death 3.5
thousands. The most serious casualties were in taro Village, where 763
peoplepp were killed.

Chile Earthquake At 15:11, May 22nd in Chile. Mw 9.5. Tsunami came to Sanriku early in
Tsunami, 1960
theh morning, May 24th. 142people
l were killed.
k ll dThe Great EastJapanearthquake
Tsunami,2011

At 14:46, March 11th. Mw 9.0. the strongest seismic intensity was 7.0.
Death 20 thousands.

2. Government Actions forRegeneration
Budgets:
1st supplementary budget in May, 2011 was about 4 trillion yen.
2nd supplementary budget in July, 2011 was about 2 trillion yen.
3rd supplementary budget in November, 2011 was about 12 trillion yen.
gOrganization:
Reconstruction Headquarters was formed in June, headed by PM.
Reconstruction Agency was established in February, 2012, with three branch offices in Iwate,
Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures.
Reconstruction programs:
Basic Act was enacted in June(復興基本法）
Reconstruction Special Area Act in December(復興特区法）
Tsunami Disaster Prevention Area Construction Act in December（津波防災地域づくり法）

Recontruction Plans by Stricken
Prefectural Governments• Tsunami Disaster Reconstruction Plan of Iwate
g 11thPrefecture, August• DisasterDiRReconstruction
i PlanPl off Mi
Miyagii
Prefecture, August 26th
• Fukushima
F k hiReconstruction
Rt ti Plan,Pl December
Db
28th

Reconstruction Plans of Stricken Areas
All the local municipalities in coastal area of East Japan, more than 40 local municipalities,
made their recovery plans till the end 2011 fiscal year.

Present and Future Situation ofStricken Areas•••••

Rubble was put away in stricken areas,areas but reconstruction has not yet
started in full scale.
Planning and local agreement building is tried for reconstructing
communities in safer high ground not to repeat similar damage.
damageSince it takes several years for the completion of reconstruction, it isworried whether local employment and population can be maintained.
In the stricken areas by collapsed Nuclear Power Generation Plans,
Plans nomore major emission of radioactive materials observed since April, 2011.
Government is planning to rezoning Warning Area and Planned Evacuation
Area into Long‐term Difficult‐to‐Return Area(More than 100 mSv ofAnnuall Radiationdi i Exposure),) Prioritizedi i i d Decontaminationi i Zone andd
Decontamination and Possible to Return Area. It is worried that many
people, especially younger generation, may not come back their home
towns affected by radiation
radiation.
All the nuclear power plants in Japan will stop working in April this year
for trouble or regular check. The Government says there will be no
g of electricity,y, but the future electricityy supply
pp y will be un clear.
shortage

3 Lessons from the disaster3.
• DiDisasters
t can beb beyondbd assumption.(想定を超える災害のti (想定を超える災害の可能性）• From disaster p
prevention planningp
g to disaster reduction
planning. (防災計画から減災計画へ）– Disasters cannot be prevented by man‐made facilities, such as
water breaks or sea wallswalls.
– The combination of disaster prevention facilities, town andvillage planning and evacuation facilities is most important– People’s life must be saved,saved and the properties are protected asmuch as possible.

• The disaster reduction planning should be applied to therecovery plans of damaged areas and the preventive plansof areas where large scale natural disasters are expected.

Basic Policies for Reconstruction
Reconstructing safe towns at safe places.
Promoting the socio
socio‐economic
economic reconstruction,
making the reconstruction of regional
economy lead physical reconstruction
Giving first priority to participation andinitiatives of local people
Reconstruction within limited time
time, about
five years.
13Safe, secure, beautiful, comfortable andenvironmentally friendly communities
 Avoid
A id reconstruction
t ti on theth original
i i l places,landd stimulate
ti l trelocation to higher places If the reconstruction at the original place is unavoidable, artificial
d k should
deckh ld b
be provided
id d Tsunami breakwater and seawall: their effects must be p
proved for
judging how large they are if they are reconstructed.
 Evacuation facilities should be clearly provided and evacuationroutes Emergency evacuation areas are served at different altitude so thatpeople can evacuate from safe places ato safer places.
places The plans of the reconstructed towns must be designed inconsideration with local conditions.
 Environmentally
E it ll friendly
f i dl designd i andd llow carbon
b cities.
iti14

Communities should be moved to higher ground so that Tsunami does not reach.
Tsunami Evacuation buildings or man‐made deck should be built at lower groundwhere business and commercial activities may be located.
located4. verification of the past disaster prevention plans

Ex. 1 Sanriku
Sanriku‐chocho Yoshihama
Ofunato City, Iwate Prefecture, before the disasterYoshihama
Tsunami Flooding areas in 2011
Pink color: flooding areas, Purple color: houses were damaged

Yoshihama, after the disaster
DDamage
was limited.
li it d18

The community of Yoshihama, at highground

19Broken seawall in Yoshihama

Ex.2 Touni‐hongo, Kamaishi City,
before the disaster.

Touni‐hongo, Kamaishi City
Pink color: flooding areas, Purple color: houses were damaged

Toni hongo after the disaster
Toni‐hongo,

23

Toni Hongo seawall
Toni‐Hongo,Ex.3 Taro, Miyako City, Iwate Prefecture
before the disaster

Toro Seawall
Toro,Taro 10 m high Seawall
Taro,TaroPink color: flooding areas, Purple color: houses were damaged

Taro 2011
Taro,
2011, after the disaster

Latest issues concerning Machidukuri
 Relocation
R l ti tot hihigherh grounds
d ini variousi
ways
housing：new development of higher grounds, man‐madedeck in areas which might
g be flooded in case of hugeg tsunami,,
upper floors of medium or high rise building
workplaces: requirements for construction in areas whichmight be flooded
flooded, such as anti
anti‐tsunami
tsunami strength,
strength installation ofmajor equipment at safer floors, evacuation buildings or tower
located nearby Raising of subsidence as public works
 Extensive government support for relocation to higher grounds:
Reduction of local municipalities portion of expenditure of therelocation projects
 Support for private housing reconstruction
 Arrangement of public housing6,000peersons

Population Change in Damaged Municipalities

4,000

2,000

‐4,000‐6,000ShinchiSouma
Minammisouma
IidateKaawamataKatsuraoK
Namie
FutabaOokumaTTomioka
NarahaHoronoKawauchiK
Iwaki

Kessennuma
MinammisanrikuIshhinomaki
OnagawaO
Shiogama
Mattsushima
Shichigahama
Rifu
Higashimattsushima
Natoritagajo
Iwwanuma
Watari
Yamamoto‐2,000,Noda
FudaiT
Tanohata
IIwaizumi
MiyakoYamadaOhtuchi
KamaishiK
OhfunatoO
Rikuzeentakada

0Oct.,2005‐Oct.,2010
Mar.,2011‐Dec.,2011‐8,000‐10,000‐12,000‐14,000

The damaged areas lost 56 thousand people totally, including death casualties, between
March 1st and December 31st, 2011, whereas they had lost 47 thousand people between
October1st, 2005 and October 1st, 2010.

5. Machidukuri Company for Regenerationfform
theth DisasterDi t Symbol of local initiative・・Public Private Partnership, setting‐up new industries
making use of public money for reconstruction
Restoration StagepDebris disposal
Supporting life in shelters and temporary housing
Planning for safe reconstruction and its implementation
Reconstruction of infrastructure and p
production facilities
Reconstruction
Reconstruction of local services, including health care and welfare
Area specialties sales and commercial activities revitalization
Creative reconstruction
Local energy supply
Tourist promotion
Revitalization of central districts
PPromoting
ti sixthi th industrializationi d t i li ti off marine
i products
d t industry:i d t fishing,fi himarine
i productd t
processing industry, marine food sales, tourism and restaurants
32

Machidukuri Company forReconstruction
 Securing
Si ablebl persons
Dispatch of able persons by public sector
Public Private Partnership in affected areas
 Securing reconstruction funds
Government reconstruction budget for hard projects
Low‐rate loan, measures to reduce double loan debts
 Securing knowledge
Supporting system for disseminating specialized
knowledge and institutional informationDistrict Energy Supply Renewable energy: Bio‐mass, wind power, solar
energyenerg
 Infrastructure arrangement when new housing
estate isi reconstructed.
d Independent energy firm which supply energy
inside or outside the community. Making full useof Feed‐in Tariff system Introducing smart energy system which combine
renewable power generation and storage battery.
 New enterprises can operate the generation and
pp y system
ywith local communities.
supplyRevitalization of Central District
Central commercial districts were severely
g and should be reconstructed on thedamagedsame site where the centrality is high.
Reconstruction should accompany functional
reorganization, including new entry into
commerciall activities.
Various projects should be done for safer andVarious
more comfortable central districts.