RESEARCH BULLETIN
MAY 21, 2019
After 2Q19 Bottom, Expectations Increase for a 3Q19 IC Market Rebound
Notably, the IC market has never shown more than three sequential quarters of decline.
IC Insights will release its May Update to the 2019 McClean Report later this month. This Update includes
a discussion of the 1Q19 IC industry market results, a detailed
quarterly IC market forecast for the remainder of this year, anda look at the top-25 1Q19 semiconductor suppliers.
Over its 60-year history, the IC industry is well known for its
cyclical behavior. Looking back to the mid-1970s, IC Insights
cannot identify a period where the IC market declined for more

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Phone: +1-480-348-1133
Email: bill@icinsights.com

than three quarters in a row. Assuming the 2Q19 IC market
registers a slight decline of 1% as compared to 1Q19, the4Q18-2Q19 timeperiod would mark the sixth three-quarter IC market drop on record (Figure 1).

Periods of Three Sequential Quarterly
IC Market Declines
Period1Year
1981

1Q-8%

2Q
-1%

3Q-2%

4Q2

1985

-18%-8%-8%-19%

31996-9%-14%-3%-9%

41997
1998

-10%-6%52001-20%-20%

62018
2019

-18%-1%*-3%-11%

Annual
10%

4%-9%
-33%

-9%

14%
-13%*

*Forecast
Source: WSTS, IC Insights	  Figure	  1	  As shown, there hasn’t been a three-quarter decline in the IC market since 2001. Moreover, the threequarter decline in 2001 was the steepest on record, with three double-digit declines, which led to themost severe annual IC market drop in history with a 33% plunge.

COPYRIGHT © 2019 BY IC INSIGHTS, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

1Given that the IC industry has never registered a four-quarter sequential IC market decline, expectations
are high for a rebound in IC market growth beginning in 3Q19. While the U.S. and China trade war is an
unpredictable “wildcard” for near-term IC market growth scenarios, 3Q19 is currently expected to display
the largest percentage growth in the quarter after a three-quarter downturn in IC industry history.

However, even with a strong rebound in IC sales in 2H19 as compared to 1H19, the total IC
market is forecast to drop by 13% this year, with more downside than upside risk to thisforecast.

Report Details: The 2019 McClean Report
Additional details on current IC market trends are provided in the May Update to The McClean Report—AComplete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry. A subscription to The McClean Report
includes free monthly updates from March through November (including a 250+ page Mid-Year Update),and free access to subscriber-only webinars throughout the year. An individual-user license to the 2019
edition of The McClean Report is priced at $4,990 and includes an Internet access password. A multi-userworldwide corporate license is available for $7,990.
To review additional information about IC Insights’ new and existing market research products andservices please visit our website: www.icinsights.com

About IC Insights
IC Insights, Inc., based in Scottsdale, Arizona USA, is dedicated to providing high-quality, cost-effective market research forthe semiconductor industry. Founded in 1997, IC Insights offers coverage of global economic trends, the semiconductor
market forecast, capital spending and fab capacity trends, product market details, and technology trends, as well ascomplete IC company profiles and evaluations of end-use applications driving demand for ICs.
Web Site: www.icinsights.com • Phone: +1-480-348-1133 • E-mail: info@icinsights.com

COPYRIGHT © 2019 BY IC INSIGHTS, INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

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