EGNRET 49th Meeting
Tokyo, Japan, 25 October, 2017

Update on APERC Activities and Energy Modelling
for the 7th Outlook
Dr. Melissa C. LOTTAssistant Vice President, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
melissa.lott@aperc.ieej.or.jp
Head, Energy Statistics and Training Office, APERC

Overview of APERC Events Since April 2017
 May
 APERC Annual Conference and Joint Symposium with IEEJ (Tokyo)

 June 3rd Oil & Gas Security Network (OGSN) Forum (Irkutsk)

 August
 Peer Review on Low Carbon Energy Policies (PRLCE) in Papua New
Guinea (Port Moresby)

 September
 1st Low-Carbon Model Town Symposium (Jakarta)

 October LNG Producer-Consumer Conference, co-hosted with METI withmore than 1,200 participants (Tokyo)2Overview of APERC Events Since April 20173

Overview of APERC Publications Since April 2017
 Publications
 April Natural Gas Utilization in
APEC: Is the Golden Ageof Gas Still Probable?

 May
 APEC Energy Overview
2016 Superiority of LPG - A
Disaster-Resistant EnergySource (APEC Oil and Gas
Security Studies Series 9)
 Geopolitical Implication ofIran Nuclear Agreement

4Overview of APERC Publications Since April 2017
 Publications (continued…)
 June Impact of Low Oil Price on
Energy Security (APEC Oil andGas Security Studies Series 10)
 Natural Gas Security in APEC(APEC Oil and Gas SecurityStudies 11)
 APEC Energy Efficiency Policy
Workshop Summary Report:
Policy and Program Evaluation II

 August
 Nuclear Power Generation inAsia-Pacific5

1. Overview of the 7th Outlook
Modelling Approach & Timeline

7th Edition integrates renewables, enhances supply• Extended the outlook period to 2050
• Integrated renewable energy analysis with the demandand electricity models• Added a supply model and an integrating module• Increased collaboration with economies, for instancemodelling assumptions review process• 2 alternative scenarios• APEC Target: integrates APEC energy efficiency andrenewables aspirational goals• 2-Degree Scenario (2DS): investigates technology transition
pathways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions

7th edition of the Outlook will produce two alternative
scenarios through 2050
Outlook 6th edition scenarios(to 2040)

Outlook 7th edition scenarios(to 2050)

IMPROVEDEFFICIENCYBusinessas-usual(BAU)

HIGHRENEWABLES

Businessas-usual

APEC
TARGET(BAU)
2 DEGREE

ALTERNATIVEPOWER MIX

Assumptions for the APEC Target Scenario
 This scenario focuses on simultaneously achieving theAPEC energy intensity and renewables capacity goals.
 whereas 6th Edition looked at the two goals separately

 For the energy efficiency goal
 In 2007, APEC Leaders agreed to a regional aspirational goal of
reducing energy intensity by at least 25 percent by 2030 (with a2005 base year). This goal was updated in 2011 to a 45 percent
reduction of regional aggregate energy intensity by 2035.
 Energy denominator is still under discussion – for now, we arelooking at final energy demand.

 As for renewables
 in 2014, APEC Leaders endorsed a new aspirational goal to double
the share of renewable energy in APEC’s overall energy mix by
2030 (over 2010 levels) and increase cooperation to achieve it.
 goal is applied to final energy demand and includes energy
sources such as large-scale hydropower, but not traditional
biomass (i.e. following the UN’s definition).

Emissions Boundary and CO2 Emissions Factors
 We will consider CO2 emissions from fuel combustion +industrial process emissions
 If possible, we will also calculate fugitive emissions andinclude these values in the discussion (but no figures)
 Agriculture: excluded although represents more than 15%
of total GHG emissions for 7 economies
 LULUCF: excluded – large variations year on year which
are either negative or positive CO2 Factors: Use global factors for coal, oil and gas
instead of economy specific factors (6th edition)

Assumptions for the 2-Degree Scenario (2DS)IEA ETP sees a declining share of APEC budget withinglobal emissions

Rough APEC 2DS sector budgets based on IEA ETP(Gt CO2)Power

Othertransformation

Buildings &Others

Total% of Global

2013

8.21

2.81

3.62

4.32

1.85

20.81

61%

2020

8.43

1.17

6.55

4.71

1.93

22.79

65%

2030

5.40

0.82

5.40

4.17

1.56

17.35

61%

2040

2.07

0.40

4.32

3.24

1.27

11.30

55%

2050

0.69

0.12

3.33

2.27

0.97

7.39

50%

Industry Transport

Emission pathways are expected to be different acrossthe sectors

Past: 6th Edition - Outlook model structure
MAIN ASSUMPTIONSMacroeconomic
model

InputsModel relationships
Final outputs

GDP● Population● Fuel price assumptions

Buildingsmodel● Buildings demand data

Industrymodel● Industry demand data
● Transport demand data

Transportmodel● Renewables potential and costs

Renewables
model● Power generation and capacity● Production sector data

● Energy investment data

MAIN RESULTS● Buildings final energy demand● Industry final energy demand● Transport final energy demand● Renewable generation● Installed capacity andgeneration

Electricity
model

Supplyassumptions

Investment
model● Energy production, supply andnet trade● Energy investments

13

Present: 7th Edition – Outlook model structure, including integration
module to aggregate data

Renewables modelling updates for 7th Edition
 Integrate renewable energy analysis into Demand (Buildings,Industry, and Transport) and Power models
 Consider policy mandates, technical limits…

 Incorporate renewable capacity stock modelling Look at currently available waste/residue

 Assess direct renewable use (for heating and cooling applications) Estimate detailed renewable potential by economy and by sector
 Improve daily load curves analysis to quantify impacts of variable
renewables in power Expand list of renewable technologies in Demand and Power models
157th edition adds low-carbon implementation chapter
Part 1 – APEC demand and supply under business as usual••••

Introduction
Outlook for energy demand
Outlook for energy supply
Outlook for the power sector

Part 2 – APEC demand and supply under alternative scenarios
•
•
•
•
•

APEC energy goals scenario (combined intensity + doubling
renewables share)
2-degree scenario (low carbon transition/advanced technologies)
Energy investment
Energy security
Raising APEC climate ambitions (focus on implementation)
16Models are being run & results will be reviewed this autumn

Economy review ofassumptions
Model development
Demand model runs

Q1
2017

Q2
2017

Q3
2017








Q4
2017

Power & supply modelruns

Economy reviews ofmodel results

Q1
2018

Model reruns to respondto comments

Outlines, drafting ofchapters

Editing, printing
Publication

Q2
2018

Q3
2018

Q4
2018

2019
April
17

Thank you for your kind attention
http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/