Disclaimer
This report was compiled by an ADRC visiting researcher (VR) from ADRC
member countries.
The views expressed in the report do not necessarily reflect the views of
the ADRC. The boundaries and names shown and the designations usedon the maps in the report also do not imply official endorsement or
acceptance by the ADRC.

SEISMIC MONITORING,, SEISMIC HAZARDASSESSMENT AND DISASTER INFORMATIONACQUISITION PROCESSING AND ANALYSIS, PROVIDINGTO OFFICIALS,
OFFICIALS DESCISION MAKERS AND PUBLIC

Vigen Harutyunyan
Head of Department of Data Acquisition Processing and Analysis,
Western Survey for Seismic Protection,
Ministry of Territorial Administration and Emergency Situations,
Republic of Armenia
Visiring Researcher ADRC, Japan 2015

Contents
y GENERAL INFORMATION OF ARMENIA AND JAPANy DISASTER MANAGEMENT POLICY IN ARMENIAy DISASTER MANAGEMENT POLICY IN JAPANy SEISMIC MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (ARMENIA

AND JAPAN)
y CONCLUSION

General information
Republic of Armenia
Head ofthe State

President

Official
language

Armenian

Capital

YerevanAdministrative andterritorial unit

Marz (11 Marzes in all including Yerevan)

National
currency

Dram (international currency code - AMD)

Territory

29.74 thousand square km

Neighbouring
countries

north- Georgia
south- Iraneast- Azerbaijan
west- Turkey

Averageelevation
b
above
sea
level

1800 mThe
highest peak

Aragats mountain - 4090 m

ThelowestaltitudeD b d riverDebedicanyon - 380 m

Population

3,018,000

Averagetemperature

in January - -6.8°C, in July - +20.8°C

Time
zone

Greenwich mean time + 4 hours

General information
Japan

Official
Name
CapitalGeographi
c coordinates:
Map
references:
Area:

Coastline:

Japan (Japanese: 日本 Nihon or Nippon; formally 日本国
Nippon-koku or Nihon-koku, literally the State of Japan)Tokyo

36 00 N, 138 00 E

Asia
total: 377,835 sq km
land: 374,744 sq km
water: 3,091 sq km
29,751 km

Climate:Varies from tropical in south to cool temperate in northTerrain:Mostly rugged and mountainous

Elevation
extremes:t

Lowest point: Hachiro-gata -4 m
highesthi
h t point:
i t MountMt Fuji
F ji 3
3,776
776 m

Naturalresources:
Environment - current
issues:

Negligible mineral resources, fish
Japan is one of the largest consumers of fish and tropical timber,contributing to the depletion of these resources in Asia andelsewhere

Population:

127,220,000

Geography

Time
zone:

strategic location in northeast Asia
Greenwich mean time + 9 hours

DISASTER MANAGEMENT POLICY IN ARMENIA
S it k Earthquake
Spitak
E th
k 1988N t
Naturall Hazards
H
d in
i Armenia
Ai
Earthquakes
Mudslides
Landslides
rockfalls
kf ll
Floods
Irradiation

Time: December 7, 1988 at 7.41.22.7 GMT (11.41.22.7 local time)
Coordinates of epicenter:
latitude 40.92°N, longitude 44.23°E
The depth of the hypocenter: 10-15 km
The magnitude of the earthquake: 7.0
The intensity at the epicenter:10 (MSK-64 intensity scale)

94%

6%

25 000 victims
250 000 people were injured
12 500 people were hospitalized
514 000 homelessNational Survey for Seismic Protection (Armenian NSSP) of the Ministryof Territorial Administration and Emergency Situations of the Republicof Armenia (MTAES of RA)
MINISTRY OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS OF ARMENIA
Rescue Service(including Crisis
ManagementgCenter- themain body for planning, cocoordinating andimplementing measuresrelated to natural and otherforms of disasters)

NationalNtil SurveyS
ffor
Seismic Protection(Armenian NSSP)

Hydrometeorology
Hdtl
and Monitoring
State Service

NationalNtilTechnical
Safety Center

AtmosphericPh
Phenomena
In Active
Service
ImpactState of
E
Emergency
CrisisManagement
Academy''NSSP'' AGENCY
Northern Survey For
Seismic Protection

Southern Survey For
Seismic Protection

Western Survey For
Seismic Protection

A
Armeniani NSSP was foundedfd d ini 1991.
1991 TheTh maini objectives
bj ti
and
d the
th aimsiare as follows:f ll•Provision of seismic hazard monitoring in the territory of Armenia•Assessment of the seismic hazard and seismic risk of the territories•Seismic
S i i riski k reductiond ti•Assessment of the levels of caused seismicity•Assessment of other secondary hazards connected with the seismic hazard.

Eastern Survey For
Seismic Protection

Laws and regulations
Seismic Protection activities are regulated by a number of laws andlegislative acts and national programs of the Republic of Armenia:

Law of RA The Law of the Republic of Armenia on Seismic Protection (2002)

Th Complex
TheC
l ProgramP
off Seismic
S i i Risk
Ri k Reduction
R d ti in
i theth RA Territory
T it(1999)

Resolutions ofGovernment

The Complex
Programof Seismic Risk Reduction in Yerevan citypgy ((1999))

The Resolution of the Government of RA on establishment of the list ofcritical important and general facilities in the field of seismic protection(2003)

Regulation“National Survey for Seismic Protection” Agency (2008)

Disaster Management Strategy based on the Hyogo Framework of Action (HFA)MTAES develops National DRR Strategy, Crisis Management Centers and National Disaster Observatory.
Armenia has also registered a progress in the implementation of HFA, and among the key developments towards
establishment of decentralized DRR system has been decree of the MTAES on appointment of Heads of MTAES
Regionalg
Representationsp
as HFA implementationp
focal ppoints at the country
y 11 regionalg((marz)) level.

Crisis Management Center in Yerevan

Crisis Management Centers in Marzes

Disaster Education and Human Resource Development in Armenia
The state trainingg systemyincludes the following
g subsystems,y, which are done regularly:gy• Training of target groups beginning from kindergartens and schools• Educational programs, methodical manuals, relevant interactive materials• TV andd radiodi programs, publications
bli ti
iin mass media
di• Social-psychological preparedness.

Armenia collaborating with ADRC (since 2000) and JICA (since 2007) in the frame ofvarious projects and programs implements the research, education and training for the
DRR specialists who acquired and shared valuable Japanese experience.
Ministry of Science and Education together with the Ministry of Territorial Administrationand Emergency Situations in the frame disaster risk reduction program will submit to
National Assembly proposals and additions for the Law “On Public Education” aiming at
inclusion disaster risk reduction elements in the school curricula.

Disaster education at kindergartens and schools

Disaster education at companies and municipalities

DISASTER MANAGEMENT POLICY IN JAPANCabinet Office, which is responsible for securing cooperation and collaboration among related
government organizations in wide-ranging issues, the Director-General for Disaster Management isplanning
g of basic disaster managementgpolicies and responsepp
to largeg
mandated to undertake the pscale disasters, as well as conduct overall coordination.

The Basic Disaster Management Plan is a comprehensive and longterm disaster management plan forming affoundation
d ti
f the
for
th DisasterDit ManagementMt Operations
O
ti
Pl
Plan
and
d LocalLl DisasterDit ManagementMt Plan.
Pl
It stipulates
ti l tprovisions for the establishment of the disaster management system, promotion of disaster management
measures, acceleration of post disaster recovery and reconstruction measures, and promotion of scientific andtechnological research on disaster management.

The Central Disaster Management Council has
developed the
Policy Framework for Largescale Earthquake Disaster Prevention andReductionamasterplan
ofthecountermeasures
for
the
large
scale
earthquake, that includes a range of activities
from preventive measures to post-disaster
response and recovery; theEarthquake
Disaster Reduction Strategy, to determine an
overarching goal of damage mitigation andstrategic targets based on the damage
estimation; and the Guidelines for Emergency
Response Activities which describes specificactions to be taken by related organizations.

It is possible that an earthquake other thanthese large scale ones can hit any place inJapan as with the cases in the past 30
years. A guideline for the countermeasuresagainst earthquakes by local municipalitiespcovering
g everyy stepp ofhas been compiled
the disaster response levels (preparation,
initial response, response, and recovery).

Disaster Education and Human Resource Development in Japan
Disaster Reduction Drills and Exercises
The Cabinet Office started a ,,program for developing
disaster management specialists,, for the purpose ofdeveloping and training people ,,who can respond to theemergency promptly and appropriately,,appropriately and ,,who
who canform a network between the national and local entities,,.

Disaster education at schools

C bi t OfficeOffii carryingiiDitCabinetisoutt a campaign,,Disaster
Reduction Education Challenge Plan,, to nurture positiveenvironment for more proactive disaster reduction
education by picking up active local groups, schools andi di id l who
individuals
h demonstratedd
t t d betterb tt disasterdit reductiond tiplans and actions, give support to them, and publicize
the achievements (including education methods,
materials used, precautions, contacts), through theOffi ’ web
Office’sb site,iti t diintendingth t suchthath planslanddprograms be widely recognized and utilized throughout
the nation .

Disaster education and trainings by University students

Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC)
The Asian Disaster Reduction CenterC
was established in Kobe, Hyogo prefecture,fin 1998, withmission to enhance disaster resilience of the member countries, to build safe communities, and tocreate a society where sustainable development is possible. The Center works to build disaster
resilient communities and to establish networks among countries through many programs including
personnel exchanges in this field. Main activities of ADRC:• Information Sharing on Disaster Reduction• Human
H
R
Resources
D
Developmentlt• Building Communities Capabilities
Visiting Researcher ADRC 2015

Seismic monitoring, seismic hazard assesment and disaster information acquisition
processing and analysis, providing to officials, decision makers and public in Armenia
Data Acquisition Processing and Analysis department of NSSP, has been carrying out operative duties (24 hours)
since its foundation, dealing with data acquisition from geophysical, geochemical, seismic network as well as withthe acquired data analysis. The department implements process of operative and manual assessment of the main
parameters of earthquake.
We base some of our researches on the fact that the preparation of earthquakes with various magnitudes isaccompanied by the appearance of precursors in various physical fields. We deal with medium-tem, short termand operative probably- seismogenic anomalies as well as co-seismic and post-seismic effects associated withearthquake probability.
There are four types of seismic network in Armenia:- Guralp Network- Vayk Network- Regional Network- Global Seismograph Network Station (IRIS)
Stations map of NSSP

Map of the epicenters of earthquakes with magnitudeM≥2.5 for time period 1962-2015

Vayk

Guralpp Network

GURALP STATION

Seismic record of Guralp station

VAYK STATION

Seismic record of Vayk station

NEW BUILDING OF NSSPIRIS STATION

Seismic record of IRIS station

MAP OF FAULTS

Current seismic hazard assessment includes:
Definition of probabilities of current anomalies seismic realization based on testing of strong regional earthquakes(M≥6 0) and local notable earthquakes (M≥3.7)(M≥3 7) and monitoring time period.
period(M≥6.0)
History analysis using “SeisHelp” (Monitored the time series, the anomalies are selected visually).
For seismogene anomalies using “Dynamic
Dynamic Fields
Fields”, probability evaluation of the site,
site time and magnitude of
expected earthquake using “Expert” programs.
Evaluation of crust stress based on monitoring data.
Complex evaluation of Current seismic hazard based on operative complex map using seismotectonic data andseismic hazart map of RA territory.

ARMENIAN NSSPYEREVAN 2000

#

#

#

# Stepanavan# Amasia

#

#
#

#

#

#

Ijevan#GPS stations

#

Artik
Gagarino###

Existing#$ Permanent (YEREVAN)

#

#
#
#

GPS OBSERVATIONNETWORK##YEREVAN
#
#
#
Garni
# #
#
Metsamor
#

$

#

#

Vardenis

K
Kusapatt#More than 30 parameters are measured at the more than 150 stations ofArmenian NSSP National Observation Network

Name

Lat

Lon

Yerevan
Garni
IjevanArtik
Metsamor
JermukGoris
Gagarino
Kapan
Astghadzor
Stepanavan
SisianAmasiaKajaran
VardenisShushi
Kusapat

44.51
44.72
45.15
43.97
44.12
45.69
46.34
44.90
46.37
45.32
44.37
46.10
43.77
46.16
45.72
46.75
46.71

40.23
40.12
40.90
40.62
40.14
39.85
39.52
40.55
39.25
40.12
41.00
39.50
40.95
39.17
40.17
39.76
40.17

#

#

Session measurements

Projected

Astghadzor

#

#

#
#
#

Session measurements
32 points

Jermuk###Shushi

#
Goris

#

#

#

Active faults
Proven
Probable
BurriedSisian
Kapan
Kajaran####

SCALE 1:2 000 000

In case of prediction of strong earthquake in the territory of Armenia and adjacent areas the Expert of the
Armenian NSSP for prediction confirmation has being immediately conveyed early non-urgent actions are beingndertaken after based on the decision of the analysis,
anal sis information,
information in order,order established byb a plenipotentiary
plenipotentiar
undertaken
bodies.
Before expected earthquake, in case of emergency declaring the Armenian NSSP acts according to the relevant
approved documents.
After occurred earthquake the main earthquake parameters are defined and the first preliminary announcement isbeing made, and after main parameters adjusting, the final announcement is being made.
After occurred earthquake, in case of emergency declaration the actions are being undertaken according to therelevant approved documents.

Anomalous concentration as an earthquake-precursor
Preparation of a strong seismic event is known to be associated with an accumulation of gigantic elastic strainenergy in the medium.
Based on the retrospective analysis of practically all seismic events which had occurred 1983
1983-2015
2015 in Armenia
and adjacent territories are systematically tested and based the Catalogue of precursory anomalies. It was
supplemented few times, and the anomalies included were critically over estimated and sometimes rejected.
Naturally, the Catalogue will be supplemented with the tests of future strong regional and perceptible local
earthquakes The Catalogue is in daily use at the Armenian NSSP for Current seismic hazard assessment.
earthquakes.
assessment
The examples, in particular, the imposing of precursory anomalies of different order, as well as the presence of
pre-, co-, post-seismic periods in observed.
Examples of analyzing the data as anomalous of some stations
Udergraound water level changes
Ashotcq (1), Zoraxbyur (2) , Eghegnazor (3)hydrogeodynamical stations

Seismic hazard assessment using software EXPERTfor hydrodynamic parameters

During 2014
O
Operatively
ti l was ddeterminedt
i d 141 earthquakesth
k witchit hannounced decision makers.
Using software Seishelp observed and made solution
f dataford t off geophysicalh i l andd geochemical
h i l stations.
t ti
Using software Expert implemented every day current
seismic hazard assessment.
Determined operatively, short term, medium term andlong tem 55 anomalous from national network stations.

Expert :24 hours ϕ = 40.50˚ λ = 45.10˚Seismic monitoring, seismic hazard assesment and disaster information acquisition
processing and analysis, providing to officials, decision makers and public (Early Warning
System) in Japan
To monitor earthquakes, JMA operates an earthquake observation network comprised of about 200 seismographs
and 600 seismic intensity meters. It also collects data from over 3,600 seismic intensity meters managed by local
governments and the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED).

Earthquake distribution around Japan (1960-2014)

Sites of seismic intensity meters

COSMETS and related systems

JMA operates two major computer systems: one is the Automated Data Editing and Switching System (ADESS)
for the treatment of observational data and products, and the other is the Numerical Analysis and Prediction
System(NAPS).
as wellll as various
relatedS t(NAPS) ADESS isi linkedli k d tot individual
i di id l JMA facilities
f iliti ffor meteorologicaltl i l services
i
i
l t d
authorities (including both the central government and local governments) via exclusive landlines. To complement
landline-based communication, JMA installed a communication channel through the Geostationary Meteorological
Satellite (MTSAT-1R) for the delivery of earthquake reports and tsunami warnings due to the urgency and level ofli bilit requiredi d iin dii ti suchhb
ll ti
reliability
disseminating
bulletins.
The Agency also operates a Global Information System Centre (GISC) and Data Collection or Production Centres(DCPCs) of the WMO Information System (WIS) for the collection and sharing of information for all WMO andrelated international programmes.

Earthquake information by Japan Meteorological Agency
The data collected are input to the Earthquake Phenomena Observation System (EPOS) at the headquarters inTokyo and the Osaka District Meteorological Observatory on a real-time basis. When an earthquake occurs, JMA
immediately issues information on its hypocenter, magnitude and observed seismic intensity. If the seismic
intensity is 3 or greater, the Agency issues a Seismic Intensity Information report within one and a half minutes.
The information is provided to disaster prevention authorities via dedicated lines,
lines and reaches the public throughlocal governments and the media. This information also plays a vital role as a trigger for the initiation of rescue
and relief operations related to earthquake disasters.

The
Earthquake
Early
Warningsystemprovidesadvanceannouncementof the estimated seismic intensities and expectedarrival time of principal motion

Examples of Response to an
Earthquake Early Warning

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) provides residents in Japan with Earthquake Early Warnings. This is a
new system that issues prompt alerts just as an earthquake starts, providing valuable seconds for people toprotect themselves before strong tremors arrive.
On 1 October 2007, JMA launched the Earthquake Early Warning service for provision through a number of media
outlets such as TV and radio.
The Earthquake Early Warning system provides advance announcement of the estimated seismic intensities andexpected arrival time of principal motion. These estimations are based on prompt analysis of the focus andmagnitude of the earthquake using wave form data observed by seismographs near the epicenter.

An earthquake early warning (EEW) announces the estimated arrival time of the S-wave of the earthquake andseismic intensity in each region. This information is based on the estimated hypocenter and magnitude of theearthquake quickly calculated from the P-wave data obtained at seismic stations near the epicenter.
epicenter (The P-wave
is a longitudinal wave that propagates 6-7 km/s through the earth's crust, while the S-wave is a transverse wavethat propagates 3.5-4 km/s through the earth's crust, arriving later and causing the more severely destructive
phenomena.) The time lag between the P-wave and the S-wave can make it possible to mitigate earthquake
damage by enabling disaster prevention actions to be taken before the major shaking begins (when the S-wave
arrives).

Conclusion
Extensive damage by a large earthquake is still inevitable, and a lot of lives will be saved if the earthquake isforeseen a day or even one hour before. This is why earthquake prediction is always ranked at the top of urgent
problems in all of the world. However, till the world hasn't succeeded in predicting the earthquakes.
Plate tectonics theory which brought the earth sciences a revolution in the latter half of the twentieth century
clarified that Earth has an approximately 100 km thick rigid surface layer which is divided into about 10 plates thatare moving with such speeds. The earthquakes of the world occur chiefly in the boundary zones of the plates.
About 10% of the earthquakes of the world occur in the Japanese area because of the Pacific Plate and thePhilippine Sea Plate surge to Japan and subduct under the Japanese Islands.
Many scientists doubt that reliable and accurate earthquake predictions are even possible. It is important the
short-term
shortterm prediction which requires catching short
short-term
term precursory phenomena. The problem are both in Japanand in Armenia, that the seismic observation is not enough for this purpose because seismographs in principle
provide only information on the earthquake that has already occurred.
It is necessary and important:1.

To adopt a new strategy of encouraging observations of anomalous changes in non-seismic phenomena,
including not only crustal deformation but also underground water, gaseous release such as radon andcarbon dioxide, and terrestrial magnetism and earth currents etc.

2.

To increase amounts of data, new theories, and powerful computer programs, and scientists are using those
to explore ways that earthquakes might be predicted in the future.

As large-scale natural disasters continue to occur around the world, there is a serious and growing need to
improve natural disaster early warning capabilities. For natural disaster early warning systems to be truly useful inmitigating disasters for those who are facing natural disaster risks, they need to:1.

Enable the issuance of prompt and accurate early warning information based on more accurate, real-timemeasurements of various natural phenomena and scientific data analysis

2.

Incorporatepsystemsyfor sharing
g warningg information amongg relevant organizationsgand disseminating
g it toresidents.

3.

Incorporate disaster reduction awareness outreach and education activities to ensure that more timely andappropriate
pp pdisaster reduction actions are taken based on the warning
g information issued.

Information Sharing Among Relevant Organizations
The development of a quick and accurate communications system is essential to the effective use of early
warning
g information.
Partnering with the Telecommunications Industry
Given the usefulness of mobile phones and the Internet in information distribution, and thus in crisis management
and information exchange
promote ppractical applications
g at the individual level,, efforts are being
g made to activelyyppp
for the vast array of information technologies that have been developed in recent years.
Disaster Awareness OutreachTo reduce disaster-related damage,g , it is importantp
to make residents of at-risk areas aware of safe evacuation
methods and nearby evacuation routes and sites ahead of time so that they will take appropriate actions based onearly warning information.
Use of Hazard Mapsp
Municipalities have to create and distribute hazard maps that show the areas most vulnerable to earthquakes aswell as evacuation information.

The elapsed time between the issuance of the EEW and the start of major shaking will differ significantly
depending on a location's distance from the epicenter. EEWs may not be issued in time to areas located justabove the hypocenterypof an inland earthquake.
q
However, when a large
g earthquakeqoccurs near an ocean trench,
there may be a time lag, albeit a very short one (ten seconds to several tens of seconds), between the issuance of
the EEW and the start of severe shaking. This may be just enough time to mitigate damage by triggering
emergency stops on trains, plant operations, and elevators, or even just by allowing people to take basic riskreduction actions, such as extinguishing flames or taking cover under a desk.
To ensure that the best response measures possible are being taken against natural disasters such as
earthquakes, tsunamis, typhoons, and torrential rainstorms, we need to conduct accurate and widespread
observations of phenomena occurring all over the world and to use those results to develop better policies.
For example, in an effort to achieve a system for disaster crisis management that uses earth observation
satellites such as Daichi, Japan is striving to cooperate and form ties with other countries in the Asia-Pacific region
while actively striving to develop a Disaster Management Support System in the Asia Pacific Region. The first stepin this process is the Sentinel Asia Project