The 50th Meeting of the APEC Expert Group on New and Renewable Energy
Technologies (EGNRET)
Hilton Waikiki Beach Hotel, Hawaii, USA21 March 2018

Tracking the renewable doubling goal
James Kendell
Vice President, APERC

Renewable doubling goal milestones
EWG 47(May 2014)

US proposed the APEC aspirational goal of doubling the sharerenewable energy by 2030 and noted that it interacted withAPEC’s aspirational energy intensity goal.
EGEDA and ESTO predecessor worked together on defining thedoubling goal.

EMM 112014(Sept 2014)
EGNRET 49(Oct 2017)
EWG 54(Nov 2017)“Doubling the share of renewables in the APEC energy mix,including in power generation, from 2010 levels by 2030.”
Energy ministers instructed the EWG through the EGNRET todevelop the road map.
EGNRET proposed to use “share of modern renewable energy intotal final energy consumption” to track progress of the doubling
goal in its roadmap. EGEDA proposed using the same measure to
track history.
To calculate the goal EWG decided that traditional biomass will not
be counted; IRENA’s definition of renewable energy isrecommended; APEC data should be used for monitoring progress.
2

Renewable doubling goal calculation scorecard
Question

Options

EWG54 decision

Data

IEA v. APECAPEC

Measurement point

Supply v. demand--Renewables

Definition

IRENA recommended

Biomass

All v. modern

Traditional excluded

Hydro

All v. smallAll, per IRENA

Geothermal

In v. outIn, per IRENA

Source: Key conclusions of EWG54

3

Further APERC consideration of traditional biomass
Users of traditional biomass:--Residential. Wood pellets in the residential sector are amodern source, but no data are available.
--Commercial. Much of the biomass use in this sector is forcooking.
--Agricultural and nonspecified. Much of this biomass isused for crop drying.

4

APEC renewable energy data collection

APERC collects annual data on all energy
products from the 21 member economies
including the following:• Hydroelectricity• Geothermal heat and electricity• Solar heat and electricity• Wind electricity• Biomass (fuelwood, wood wastes, agricultural waste, etc.)• Liquid biofuels• Biogases• Wastes5Renewable energy in final energy consumption
Unit: ktoe

Including all biomass

Non-Renewables
CoalOilGas
Electricity
Heat
Other non-renewables
Renewable Energy
Biomass
Geothermal
Solar
OthersTotal
RE Share2010
2015
4,126,149 4,502,040
733,659 774,478
1,596,319 1,719,021
629,517 692,095
974,865 1,115,122
188,550 197,766
3,239
3,558
210,136 226,192
180,184 184,760
512
749
2,871
3,372
26,57037,3104,336,285 4,728,232
4.8%
4.8%

Excluding traditional biomass

Non-renewables
CoalOil
Gas
Electricity
Heat
Other non-renewables
Traditional Biomass
Modern Renewable Energy
Electricity and HeatModern Biomass
Geothermal Heat
Solar Heat
OthersTotalRE Share

2010
2015
3,971,008 4,286,523
733,659 774,478
1,596,319 1,719,021
629,517 692,095
821,403 901,046
186,871 196,325
3,239
3,558
111,151 113,519
254,127 328,191
155,141 215,517
69,03371,242
512
749
2,871
3,372
26,57037,3104,336,285 4,728,232
5.9%
6.9%

Note: Consumption of electricity and heat from renewables is calculated from the share of total electricity and heat production. China, Malaysia and Papua New
Guinea have no data on traditional biomass.
Source: APEC data.

6Coal and oil lost share to electric, heat renewables
Percent Change in Fuels, 2010-2015
1.2

Electricity and Heat

10.8

Renewables

Non-Renewables

0.6
0.4

Gas

0.2

OthersElectricity-0.2

Geothermal Solar

Other non0Heat

Modern biomass

-0.4
-0.6

Coal

Oil-0.8

From 2010 to 2015, the renewable share increased only 1 percentage
point, just 17% of the way to the goal
Note: Renewable energy includes electricity and heat generated from renewable energy sources.
Source: APEC data.

7

Are we on track? (APEC outlook)
6th edition projections
14.0HistoryExtrapolation

11.4%

12.0
10.0

Level of RE shareneeded to achieve
the doubling goal

8.0%

8.0

8.6%

6.0
7.1%

4.0
2.00.02010
2010 Level

2015 Level

2015

2020

Required increase

2025
RE Share (HIREN)

2030
RE Share (BAU)

8

Are we on track? (compound growth)
Renewable energy share
14.0

History

Extrapolation

11.5%

12.0
10.0

Level of RE shareneeded to achieve
the doubling goal

8.2%

8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2010
2010 Level

2015
2015 Level

2020

2025

Required increase2030
Trend of RE Share

Source: APEC data and APERC analysis.

•

We need to sustain the rate of increase from 2010 to 2015 to achieve the goal in 2030
9

Are we on track? (straight line)
Renewable energy share
14.0

History

Extrapolation

12.0

10.2%

10.0

Level of RE shareneeded to achieve
the doubling goal

8.0%

8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
2010
2010 Level

2015
2015 Level

2020

2025

Required increase2030
Trend of RE Share

Source: APEC data and APERC analysis.

•We need to do more to achieve the goal in 2030
10

What might limit renewable growth?
 Effect of intermittency on grid stability
 Cost of electricity storage
 Regulations persistently favouring fossil and nuclear
generation
 Persistent land use restrictions
 Slowed renewable technology development
 Breakthrough by a competing technology

11Thank you for your kind attention
http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/