Joint EGNRET/EGEEC Meeting
Hong Kong, China, 20 March 2019

Progress toward APEC goals
James Kendell
Chair, EGEDA

Intensity, but not renewables, goal is on track
MeasurePeriodData

ResultIntensity

2005-2035

DemandExtrapolation

Projection
Renewable
Share
Doubling

2010-2030

SupplyExtrapolation
Projection

DemandExtrapolation

Projection

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APEC energy intensity indicator milestones

EWG Meetings• To reduce APEC's
aggregate energy
intensity by 45%
percent by 2035.

Honolulu
Declaration 2011

• APERC has
been reporting
progress since
EWG41 in 2011.

• Proposal andapproval of thecurrentdefinition.
EWG53 Meeting

Agreement was reached at EWG53 to analyse final energy
consumption intensity (excluding non-energy), using APEC data.
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Data extrapolation shows intensity goal met in 2035
Annual changes to intensity, energy demand and GDP, 2006-2016
8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Change in Final Energy Intensity
Change in Final Energy (FE)
Change in GDP (PPP, constant 2011 US dollars)

Source: APEC statistics and APERC analysis.

4Intensity goal is met in 2029 in Outlook 7th edition
APEC energy intensity by edition, 2000-2050

Goal was met in 2037 in the 6th edition Business as Usual Scenario.
Source: IEA statistics 2017 and APERC analysis.

5Decomposition will illuminate intensity measure
Data collection

Energy data - APEC data through ESTO

GDP (PPP)–World Bank Indicators. As oftentimes disaggregated GDP orgross value added (GVA) are not available in World Bank database,
GVA may need to be sourced from each economy.
Other data–activity data; physical production output; sectoral end use
from each economy; and other international sources such as IEA, WB,IMF, UN, ADB and OECD.

6Activity, structure, and intensity effects are key
Activity effectMethodology
Change in energy use

E = A ΣjSj * Ij

In this decomposition:
EA

represents total energy use in a sector;

represents overall sectoral activity (e.g. value added inmanufacturing);
Sj represents sectoral structure or mix of activities within a
sub-sector j (e.g.
shares of output by manufacturing sub- sector j); andIj represents the energy intensity of each sub- sector orend-use j (e.g. energy use/real US dollar value added)jdenotes sub-sectors or end use within sector

At/A0 = At ΣjSj,o * Ij,0 / E0Structure effect

St/S0 = A0 Σj Sj,t * Ij,0 / E0
Intensity effect

It/I0 = A0 Σj Sj,o * Ij,t / E0

Where:trepresents current year
0 base year

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Renewable doubling share goal milestones
EWG 47(May 2014)

US proposed the APEC aspirational goal of doubling
the share of renewable energy by 2030 and noted thatit interacted with APEC’s aspirational energy intensitygoal.

EMM 112014“Doubling the share of renewables in the APEC energy
mix, including in power generation, from 2010 levels by2030.”(Sept 2014)
EWG 54(Nov 2017)

EWG decided that traditional biomass will not becounted; IRENA’s definition of renewable energy isrecommended; APEC data should be used formonitoring progress; and the goal should be monitored
on both the supply and demand side.
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Supply intensity projection falls short of goal
Renewable energy share in total primary energy supply, 2010-2030
History

Extrapolation/Projection

Level of RE shareneeded to achieve
the doubling goal

Source: APEC data and APERC analysis.

9Demand intensity growth falls short of the goal
Renewable energy share in total final energy consumption, 2010-2030
History

Extrapolation/Projection

Level of RE shareneeded to achieve
the doubling goal

Source: APEC data and APERC analysis.

10Closing thoughts
 APERC would appreciate your support in studying decomposition ofenergy demand, and recommending efficiency measures.
 However, it will be up to EGEEC to recommend any change in the APEC
intensity goal.
 Additional efforts are needed by EGNRET to address the barriers to therenewable share doubling goal, such as: Effect of intermittency on grid stability,

 Cost of electricity storage, and Policies favouring fossil and nuclear energy.
 More needs to be done by EGNRET to identify technology-bytechnology and economy-by-economy barriers and then to formulate
policy responses as part of a comprehensive renewable share doublingroad map.

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Thank you for your kind attention
http://aperc.ieej.or.jp/