APERC Update
Joint Meeting EGNRET 58 and EGEDA 34
Hawaii, 4 April 2023

Ario JATI – Senior Researcher

Outline❑ New report releases: Fossil fuel reports❑ Roadshows for the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition❑ Planning for the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 9th Edition❑ 29th APEC seminar on energy modeling2New report releases: APERC Gas Report 2022
• Key highlights :• APEC natural gas consumption rebounded in2021.
• APEC's natural gas production in Southeast Asia
declined by an average of 1.1% per annum.
• Case Study: APEC SEA’s response to high gas
pricesFull Report : https://aperc.or.jp/reports/fossil_fuel_report.php
3For a variety of reasons, fossil fuel prices jumped in 2H21 and 2022
Monthly fossil fuel prices in 2020-2021 (USD/MMBtu)

Percentage Price Change Relative to 1H2160

53.95

2H21

1H22

2H22Oil

18%

60%

43%

40

Gas

195%

222%

313%

30

Coal

77%

209%

295%

50

19.53

20

• The pandemic depressed prices in2020

15.61

10

• By 1H21, prices had recovered

LNG JKM

Newcastle Coal

Nov-22

Sep-22

Jul-22

May-22Mar-22

Jan-22

Nov-21Sep-21

Jul-21

May-21

Mar-21

Jan-21

Nov-20

Sep-20Jul-20May-20Mar-20Jan-200• Under-investment and then theRussia-Ukraine war caused
substantial price increases

Dubai Crude Oil

Source: Investing.com

4Southeast Asia’s responses to high fossil fuel prices

Average electricity tariff changes (in percentage) in 2021-2022 in APEC SEA (compared to January 2021 level)
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
2021-2 2021-3 2021-4 2021-5 2021-6 2021-7 2021-8 2021-9 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-1 2022-2 2022-3 2022-4 2022-5 2022-6 2022-7 2022-8 2022-9-10%
Brunei Darussalam••Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Singapore

Thailand

Viet Nam

Significant increase in electricity tariff in Singapore and the Philippines.
Brunei Darussalam and Viet Nam Governments absorbed all the impact and maintained the electricity prices atthe same level.
5New report releases: APERC Coal Report 2022
• Key highlights :• Most APEC Economies committed to achieving
NZE in 2050 or 2060.
• APEC coal consumption bounced back strongly
in 2021.

• APEC Coal production rose by 6.1% in 2021.
• Coal prices surged in the second half of 2021
and 2022.

Full Report : https://aperc.or.jp/reports/fossil_fuel_report.php
6

Coal consumption bounced back in 2021
APEC Coal consumption by region, Exajoules (EJ)

140120

China

100

USRussia

80

Northeast Asia
60
Southeast Asia
40
Other Americas
200
2001

Oceania

2006

2011

2016

2021

• APEC coal consumption rebounded by approximately 5% in 2021, driven by the five largest coalconsumption economies (China, United States, Japan, Russia, and Indonesia).

• APEC-wide coal consumption reached 120 EJ in 2021, close to its previous peak in 2014.
7

Roadshow activities for the APEC Energy Demandand Supply Outlook 8th Edition

Outline of the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook• Published every three years• 8th edition: official launch end of September 2022
• Provides coverage on projected energy demand andsupply trends• APEC-wide trends (Volume 1)• Economy-specific trends (Volume 2)• For the 8th edition:• Projections: 2018-2050• Emissions focus (Kaya Identity)• Two scenarios: Reference and Carbon Neutrality(https://aperc.or.jp/reports/outlook.php)

9Efforts to disseminate the Outlook 8th Edition• With the official launch event last September 2022, APERC has had around 40 opportunities to share
the result of the 8th edition.
In person
VirtualTotalEmbassy visits in Japan
1212

Roadshow events
14317

Other activities
5611Total
31940• For the 8th edition, APERC activities newly included APEC economies’ embassy visit in Japan.
(e.g.) Thailand Embassy visit, November 2022

10

International events• There were some presentations and interviews in international conferences as well.
SIEW, October 2022

CERAWeek, March 2023

APEC EWG 64, November 2022

11APEC economy roadshows• Apart from the Embassy visit and the attendance of international events, APERC has held a seriesof roadshows in each economy to provide the key findings of the 8th edition.
ChileViet Nam

Malaysia

Korea
Australia

USA• Additionally, several more roadshows are planned for the coming months, including visiting NDRC –China and Peking university.
12

Feedback from the roadshows• A general concern about the energy transition and high natural gas prices during
the transition.
• Desire for increased focus on energy trilemma and more objectivity about thechallenges of decarbonization with current technologies.

• Interested in the long-term potential of hydrogen despite the difficulties incommercialization.
• Increased concern about grid reliability and system costs associated with rising VREshare.

• Question about critical minerals’ roles in the energy transition and potential supplybottleneck.
• Interest by some economies in nuclear power generation as one of the moresustainable and reliable options.

13Planning for the APEC Energy Demand andSupply Outlook 9th Edition

Selecting scenarios for the Outlook 9th Edition• Since the 1st edition was published in 1998, the APEC Energy Outlook has responded to global trends.
• From 5th to 8th edition of the APEC Energy Outlook, the scenarios have been continuously updated.
5th6th7th

8thPeriod

2009-2035

2013-2040

2016-2050

2018-2050

Base year

2009

2013

2016

2018

Business-as-Usual (BAU)
Scenarios
High Gas (HG)
Publication

2013

Business-as-Usual (BAU)
Business-as-Usual (BAU)
Improved Efficiency (IE)
APEC Target (TGT)High Renewables (HR)Alternative Power Mix (APM) 2-Degrees Celsius (2DC)
2016

Reference (REF)

Carbon Neutrality (CN)20192022• APERC is currently developing scenarios directions for the APEC Energy Outlook 9th Edition.
• Projection period for the Outlook 9th Edition will be 2021- 2060 (preliminary)• Roadshows feedback will be incorporated: energy affordability (trilemma), critical minerals, andhydrogen.
15

Preliminary schedule for the 9th Edition• Expected to be published in 2025
• Two core objectives• Estimating energy demand and supply trends• Estimating progress on APEC energy-related goals• Analysis cycle and expected schedule

Data Collection

Assumptions
creationRevisions
Energy Outlook

Stakeholder
EngagementModelling#12345678910111213141516

Task
Scenario development
Model development
1st Modelling
Drafting
Internal Review #1
External Review #1
Revisions #1
Internal Review #2
External Review #2
Revisions #2
Final results
Proofread
Final Draft
Copy edit, layout, and publishing
LaunchRoadshow

2023
2024
2025
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X

16

29th APEC seminar on energy modeling29th APEC seminar on energy modeling❑ APERC’s Know-How Transfer Program❑ Held in Tokyo 6-10 March 2023▪

27th and 28th were held online❑ Participants▪

▪

▪
❑

No. of participants – 14 (10 APERC funded, 4 selffunded)
No. of economies – 10 (BD​; CHL; INA; MAS; PE;PHL; PNG (online) ; CT; THA; VN)
APERC Experts and Speakers – 5Goals
1) Provide an understanding of energy model inpolicymaking.

2) Reinforce attendees’ capabilities to choose, design,and use energy models that can be implemented intheir home economies.
3) Strengthen analytical skills to assess results➢ Although the duration of the training was short,participants were all satisfied❑ Agenda▪ Basic of energy modeling▪ Sectoral modeling: supply, power and demandusing OSeMOSYS.
▪ Scenario making▪ Hands-on exercises
18Thank you.
https://aperc.or.jp
ario.jati@aperc.or.jp