Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Expert Group on New and Renewable Energy Technologies (EGNRET)FORTY-SEVENTH MEETING
10-13 October, 2016 in Jakarta, Indonesia

APEC Energy Demand &Supply Outlook: 6th Edition
High Renewables Scenario andRenewables Heating & Cooling project

Michael SINOCRUZ & Alexey KABALINSKIY, APERC

Outline
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APEC High Renewables Scenario results
Investment in the High Renewables Scenario
Improved Efficiency Scenario
Impact of Alternative Scenarios on CO2 Emissions
High RE Scenario conclusions
Renewables for Heating & Cooling in APEC◼
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RE for heating in Remap of IRENA,
REH&C project scope and timeline,
Estimating APEC’s RE potential for heating and cooling,
Availability and applicability of REH&C in APEC,
RE for Buildings and Industry,
Building sector details and projections,
Industrial sub-sectors details and projections,
Current summary charts.

Preliminary outcomes2

Presentation Outline◼

APEC High Renewables Scenario◼

Investment in the High Renewables Scenario◼

Improved Efficiency Scenario◼

Impact of Alternative Scenarios on CO2 Emissions◼

Renewables for Heating & Cooling in APEC◼

Conclusion31. APEC High Renewables
ScenarioAPEC Renewable Energy Share in Total Final Energy Demand

The APEC’s Renewable Doubling Goal is not met under BAU, but would be met in theHigh Renewables Scenario.
Source: IEA (2015) and APERC (2016).

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APEC Renewable Technologies Costs

0.30

Range ofLCOE

0.20

APEC avg
LCOE in 2013

0.10

Geothermal

HydroWind(offshore)

Wind(onshore)

CSP

Solar PV(utility)

Solar PV(rooftop)

0.00

Biofuels

APEC avg
LCOE in 2040
Biomass

Levelised cost of energy(2012 USD/kWh)

0.40

Access to technologies, renewable resource and land availability lead to lower
LCOEs in China, Mexico and the United States.
Hydro, biomass and geothermal have low LCOE mainly due to long lifetime, thus
sensitive to discount rate.
Source: IEA (2015) and APERC (2016).

8Renewable power - current renewables plans and targets are expected to resultin falling short of the doubling target
Renewable generation by scenario
10 000

Renewable generation by sub-region→ Projection

9 000
8 000

China

Additional renewables
Series17
based on least cost

7 000

RE policy,
Series16
additional to BAU

TWh6 000
5 000

Series15

4 000

3%

8%

Russia

10%5%

United States
High Renewables
8 911 GWh

RE generation inHiREN

3 000

Policy REgeneration

2 000

1 000

RE generation inBAU

Other north-east Asia
Other Americas

23%
4%

OceaniaSouth-East Asia

2040

2035

2030

2025

2020

2015

2010

2005

2000

1995

1990

047%

Renewables expand greatly in China, the United States and South-East Asia.
An average of 100 GW of new capacity should be added annually in 2013-2030.
Note: Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other north-east Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea andChinese Taipei), South-East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam).
Source: IEA (2015) and APERC (2016).

9APEC Renewable Power in the High Renewables Scenario
GW
120

TWh
600

Russia80400

402000GW
3 0002040

2013

China

4 000

1 000

WindHydro
2013 BAU: 819 GW / 2 716 TWh
2030 HR: 2 510 GW / 7 109 TWh
2040 HR: 3 041 GW / 8 911 TWh

TWh
600

TWh
30020040100002040

2013

2040

100200GW30080

2013

4000201302013 2040 2013 2040GWOceania
1202000

2 0000Solar2040
TWh
6 000

2 000

Biomass and other

Other north-east Asia

02013

Geothermal

GW300

2040

2013

2040

South-East Asia

GW750

TWh
3 000

United States

500

2 000

250

1 000002013

2040

2013

2040

TWh
750

200

500

GW
300

100

250

200

800

00100400

2013

2040

2013

Other Americas

TWh
1 200

2040
00
2013 2040 2013 2040

Major growth of solar in Asia, the United States and Oceania
Note: this map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory,
Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other north-east Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea andChinese Taipei), South-East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam),BAU = Business-as-usual, HR = High Renewables
Source: IEA (2015) and APERC (2016).

10Renewable power in South-East Asia
Renewable generation by scenario
2 500

50%

Geothermal→ Projection
40%

30%

TWh

1 500

1 000

20%

500

10%

0%

1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040

0Share of renewables

2 000

Renewable generation by economy

Biomass andothers

BruneiDarussalam

0.1%

Indonesia

23%

SolarMalaysia
WindHydro
Non-renewable(includingnuclear)
Share of RE in HR(right axis)

SEA
High Renewables
720TWh13%45%

Philippines
Singapore

0.4%
9%Thailand
9%
Viet Nam

Share of RE in
BAU (right axis)

Renewables expand greatly in Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam.
An average of 6 GW of new capacity should be added annually in 2013-2030, and8GW of new capacity in 2030-2040.
Note: South-East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam),BAU = Business-as-usual, HR = High Renewables
Source: IEA (2015) and APERC (2016).

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APEC Biofuels Supply Potential in the High Renewables Scenario
APEC bioethanol supply potential anddemand

APEC biodiesel supply potential anddemand

Biofuel supply growing 2.7%/yr could meet over 5% of transport demand.
Regional biofuels surpluses and deficits provide great trading opportunity.
Sources: IEA (2015) and APERC (2016).

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2. Energy Investment in theHigh Renewables Scenario

The High Renewables Scenario requires a small increase in investment
Change in investment under the High Renewables Scenario from BAU, 2015-40
Net Effect
Energy transport-24%

Electricity

26%

Downstream-11%

Upstream-3%

REHiRENBAU

Non-RE

HiREN
BAU

T&D

T&D

Capacity
Additions

-1.0

HiREN
BAU
0.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2012 USD trillion

2.0

2.5

1.0

3.0

2.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

The High Renewables Scenario is 6% (USD 1.1 trillion) higher than the BAU.
RE capacity and T&D investments only partially offset by lower non-RE investments.
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3. Improved Efficiency ScenarioImproved Efficiency Scenario
APEC Energy Intensity target

Overall results

Energy intensity index (2005 base year)

1401301202037

2032

110
10090807060

45% reduction target

5040
1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

BAU Energy Intensity Index

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Alternative Energy Intensity Index

Total savings of 921 Mtoe equivalent to the combined current demand of Russia,
Japan and Korea.
Sources: IEA (2015) and APERC (2016).

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China and the US account for 64% of energy savings
Energy savings in the Improved Efficiency Scenario by regional grouping, 2015-40

China has the largest saving potential: it delivers 43% of total APEC savings.
The United States follows with 21%.
Note: Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other north-east Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea andChinese Taipei), South-East Asia (Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam).

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4. Impact of Alternative
Scenarios on CO2 Emissions

APEC Energy-related CO2 Emissions in APERC Scenarios and INDCs30→ Projection

BAU25

INDC unconditional

High Renewables
Improved Efficiency

20GtCO2

INDC conditional

Improved Efficiency+ High Renewables

15102°C

502010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

APEC energy related emissions can peak by 2020 if both energy efficiency andhigher shares of renewables are pursued.
APEC economies need to raise INDC ambitions, as well as energy targets if theglobal climate goal is to be achieved.
195. Renewables Heating & Coolingproject

Renewables Heating & Cooling project background
The High Renewables Scenario outlines a pathway to accomplishing APEC’sRenewables Doubling Goal. Achieving this will require the following actions:⚫ Formulate a comprehensive, APEC-wide Renewables development plan;⚫ Renewables policy should cover power, transport, buildings and industry;⚫ Provide R&D support for current and next generation RE technologies;⚫ Strengthen and improve the power grids for VRE integration;⚫ Support Renewables market access, e.g. easier power grid connection;⚫ Provide fiscal and non-fiscal incentives, e.g. FiT, RPS, PPAs,⚫ Enhance biofuels trade among APEC member economies; and⚫ Accelerate the development and standardization of advanced biofuels toaddress possible shortfalls of bioethanol and promotion of flex-fuel vehicles.

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Thank you for your attention!
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