EGEDA update
EGEEC56 and EGNRET55 Joint Meeting
11-14 May 2021
Edito BARCELONA, Elvira GELINDON and Nobuhiro SAWAMURAEGEDA Secretariat

Outline
Regular energy data collection
Training courses and workshops on energy statistics
EGEDA meetings
Tracking the APEC energy intensity goalTracking the APEC RE doubling goal2

1. Regular energy datacollection

Annual energy dataAnnual energy supply and demand data of 21 member

economies for 2018 have been collected, processed andanalysed APEC Energy Statistics 2018 and APEC Energy Handbook
2018 publications are still undergoing APEC Secretariat review

Annual energy supply and demand data for 2019 are now

being collected All data are expected to be in by September 2021

 The secretariat will finish the draft APEC Energy Statistics 2019and APEC Energy Handbook 2019 and submit to the APEC
secretariat for review by end of October 2021
 Hopefully, the 2019 publications are released in January 2022

4

Other energy data
Regular quarterly and monthly data collection continues.

 Monthly JODI Oil and JODI Gas are submitted one month after theend of the month Quarterly supply data are submitted 4 months after the end of thequarter

Low response rate on the energy efficiency indicators

template, energy prices and CO2 emissions

 No available end-use energy consumption (heating, cooling, lighting,etc.) data in many non-IEA member economies
 The secretariat requests IEA member economies to submit thetemplates submitted to IEA
 Not all economies have official CO2 emissions data5

Uses of APEC energy data
APEC energy overview

APERC is now using APEC data that is
produced by EGEDA for the 8th APEC

energy outlook

 Outlook will use petajoules (PJ) insteadof million tons of oil equivalent (mtoe)
 EGEDA also used PJ in data analysis andin the 2018 energy statisticspublications
APEC energy data is also used to track theprogress of APEC aspirational goals62. Energy statistics
trainings/workshops

18th APEC workshop on energy statistics
Held on 15-17 December 2020

▪ Focused on renewable energy statistics with the objective ofimproving data for more accurate tracking of the doubling goal
▪ A joint training workshop with IRENA▪ EGNRET participatedAgenda▪ Overview of renewable energy (sources and technologies)▪ Importance of accurate renewable energy data in tracking APEC’s
renewable energy doubling goal
▪ APEC’s renewable energy road map analysis▪ Methodologies for estimating production and consumption ofrenewable energy in the non-power sector and in off-grid
renewable energy installations

8

19th APEC workshop on energy statistics
Schedule: 6-8 July 2021 (online)▪ To discuss the importance of energy efficiency indicators forenergy policy analysis and sharing of experiences on end-use
energy consumption data collection/estimation▪ A joint training workshop with IEA▪ We would like to invite EGEEC to actively participate

919th APEC workshop on energy statistics
Agenda▪ Energy intensity trends in APEC from 2005 to 2018
▪ APEC cooperation in energy efficiency▪ The energy efficiency indicators template▪ APEC energy data and energy balances – the need for more data
▪ The IEA weather database▪ Collection/estimation of sectoral energy and activity indicators▪ Tracking sectoral energy efficiency (with hands-on exercises)▪ Residential and commercial sectors (buildings)▪ Industrial sector▪ Transport sector▪ Development of action plan to track impacts of energy efficiency –What to do and how to get the right data

10

EGEDA’s training courses on energy statistics
All courses were cancelled
 Short-term: 19-30 October 2020 (2 weeks) Middle-term: 19 October to 11 December 2020 (8weeks)
 Special training course for Viet Nam: 28 September to
2 October 2020 (5 days) The secretariat is considering to hold a one-week coursein September 2021
11

3. EGEDA meetings

31st EGEDA meeting (Joint with EGEEC54)
Held on 19-20 November 2020
EGEEC and EGEDA agreed to further collaborate in

the future on: Organising joint meetings and workshops; Data collection in district cooling/heating systems,
 End-use energy data; Exploring energy efficiency applications and energy datacollection in green data centers

13

32nd EGEDA meetingTo be hosted by China (online, 19-20 October 2021)
Agenda• Report on the 18th APEC workshop and directives from EWG• Report on energy data collection and energy supply anddemand trends by the secretariat• Tracking the APEC energy goals• Energy efficiency indicators template and training workshop
on collection/estimation of end-use energy consumption
data• Election of EGEDA chair• Other matters14

4. Progress of APEC energy
intensity goal

APEC energy intensity indicator milestones• To reduce APEC's
aggregate energy
intensity by 45%
percent by 2035.

Honolulu
Declaration 2011

EWG Meetings• APERC has beenreportingprogress since
EWG41 in 2011.

• Proposal andapproval of
the current
definition.
EWG53 Meeting Agreement was reached at EWG53 to analyse final energy consumption intensity (excludingnon-energy), using APEC data.

16Energy intensity continued to decline in 2018…
Annual change in APEC final energy intensity, 2006-18
2006

070809101112131415161718

Trendto2035

Change infinal energy
2.4% 2.9% 0.7% -1.3% 5.5% 4.3% 1.9% 1.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.4% 1.3% 3.7%consumption
Change in
GDP (PPP,constant
5.4% 5.5% 2.9% -0.2% 5.7% 4.2% 4.2% 3.8% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 4.1% 4.1%
2017 USdollars)
Change infinal energy-2.8% -2.5% -2.2% -1.1% -0.1% 0.08% -2.3% -2.3% -2.3% --2.9% -2.9% -2.6% --0.4% -48.9%
intensity

Sources: APEC statistics, WB, DGBAS (CT) and APERC analysis.

 Final energy intensity has been improving reasonably consistently year-on-year, with 0.4%

reduction in 2018

 Final energy intensity fell 21.8% between 2005 and 2018.
 If the current trend continues, the APEC final energy intensity goal of 45% will be met in 2033;

17Decomposition of thechange in energy
consumptionAnalysis
Decomposition : Final energy consumption(PJ), 2005-18

 Energy efficiency or intensity effect played a significant role in offsetting theincreases in final energy consumption brought about by the rapid growth (activity)of the APEC region

Better data = better analysis•

Note that energy intensity is not the same as energy efficiency. Energy
intensity is often used as a proxy to analyse energy efficiency improvements inan economy.

•To better understand true trends in energy consumption as well as trends ineconomic activity that influence energy consumption in APEC, decomposition
method is recommended. It allows us to separate structural shifts or activityshifts, understanding.

•However, more useful analysis (i.e. analysis by sector) requires more detailed
data or disaggregation of end use demand. Decomposition of aggregate
intensity is already a challenge.

•For example: Transport (passenger-km travel and number of vehicles)--initiallytried with three OECD APEC economies with detailed activity data--andresidential (floor area and weather effect), these sectors will be challenging.
205. Progress of APEC RE
doubling goal

Renewable share doubling goal milestones
1. EWG 47 (May 2014) - US proposed the APEC
aspirational goal of doubling the share of renewableenergy by 2030 and noted that it interacted with APEC’s
aspirational energy intensity goal.
2. EMM 11 (Sep 2014) - “Doubling the share of renewablesin the APEC energy mix, including in power generation,from 2010 levels by 2030.”
3. EWG 54 (Nov 2017) - EWG decided that traditional
biomass will not be counted; IRENA’s definition ofrenewable energy is recommended; APEC data should be
used for monitoring progress; and the goal should bemonitored on both the supply and demand side.
22

Renewable energy supply and consumption
Primary energy supply, PJ
Non-renewables
CoalOilGas
Other non-renewables
Traditional biomass
Modern renewable energy
Modern biomass
Hydro
Geothermal
SolarWind
Other renewables
Total
Modern RE share2010
287,578
116,655
90,63061,375
18,917
3,551
14,996
4,491

6,396
1,486
152
586
1,885
306,125
4.9%

Final energy consumption, PJ

2018 % change
318,619
10.8% Non-renewables118,589
1.7% Coal
100,519
10.9% Oil
79,42529.4% Gas
20,086
6.2% Electricity
3,006-15.4% Heat
23,861
59.1% Other non-renewables
5,919
31.8% Traditional biomass
8,896
1,753
1,490
2,612
3,192
345,486
6.9%

39.1% Modern renewable energy
17.9% Electricity
877.0% Heat
346.0% Modern biomass
69.3% Other renewables
12.9% Total
41.0% Modern RE share2010
164,441
30,63065,017
26,18734,553
7,839
215
3,551

10,744
6,242
61
2,862
1,579
178,736
6.0%

2018 % change
186,32913.3%
28,095-8.3%
72,873
12.1%
34,791
32.9%
40,784
18.0%
9,483
21.0%
303
40.8%
3,006
-15.4%
17,905
11,595
115
3,268
2,927
207,240
8.6%

66.7%
85.8%
88.2%
14.2%
85.4%
15.9%
43.7%

Note: Consumption of electricity and heat from renewables is calculated from the share of total electricity and heat production.
Data of China for 2018 are estimated based on preliminary information.
Source: APEC data.

23

Coal and other energy lost shares to gas and renewables
Percent change in fuels in primary energy supply market share, 2010-2018Non-renewables

4.0%

Modern Renewables

Gas

3.0%
2.0%

Modernbiomass Hydro

1.0%
0.0%

Oil-1.0%-2.0%

Geothermal

Solar

OtherWind renewables

Other non- Traditional
renewables biomass

-3.0%
-4.0%

Coal

-5.0%
Note: Renewable energy includes electricity and heat generated from renewable energy sources
Source: APEC data

From 2010 to 2018, the renewable share increased 2.0 percentage points,
41% of the way to the goal.
24

Coal and oil lost shares to electricity from renewables
Percent change in fuels in final energy consumption market share, 2010-2018
Non-renewables

Modern Renewables

3.0%

Gas

2.0%
1.0%

Electricity

Electricity Heat Other nonrenewables

0.0%
-1.0%

Oil-2.0%

Traditionalbiomass

Otherrenewables
HeatModernbiomass

-3.0%
-4.0%

Coal
Note: Renewable energy includes electricity and heat generated from renewable energy sources
Source: APEC data.

From 2010 to 2018, the renewable share increased 2.6 percentage points, 44% of
the way to the goal.

25

Renewable energy supply and consumption
Electricity Generation, TWh
Non-renewables
CoalOilGas

Nuclear

Other non-renewables

Modern renewable energy
Modern biomass
Hydro
Geothermal
SolarWind
Other renewables
Total
Modern RE share2010
11,362
6,572

331
2,711
1,658

89

2,120
73

1,780
53

9

163
43
13,482
15.7%

2018 % change
13,289
17.0%
7,694
17.1%
210
3,587

-36.7%
32.3%

117

31.3%

1,681

3,827
163
2,474

60

1.4%

80.5%
124.4%
39.0%
13.5%

367

3972.5%

22.4%

42.2%

725
37
17,115345.9%-13.0%
27.0%

Even in electricity generation, for just 40% of the time to 2030, APEC has alreadyincreased renewable energy share by 42%
26

Supply outlook BAU extrapolation fails to meetthe goal

Renewable energy share in total primary energy supply, 2010-2030
14.0%

13.2%

9.9%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

9.1%

6.9%

Level of RE shareneeded toachieve thedoubling goal

4.9%

4.0%

2.0%

2010 Level

Growth until 2018

Required increase

NRE Share (Linear trend)

APEC 7th Outlook (BAU)

APEC 7th Outlook (2DC)

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

0.0%
2010

Share of modern reneables

12.0%

Source: APEC data and APERC analysis.

27

Demand outlook BAU extrapolation also fails tomeet the goal

Renewable energy share in total final energy demand, 2010-2030
18.0%

16.5%

16.0%

12.6%

12.0%
10.0%

11.3%

8.7%

8.0%
6.0%

6.0%

Level of RE shareneeded toachieve thedoubling goal

4.0%
2.0%

2010 Level

Growth until 2018

Required increase

NRE Share (Linear trend)

APEC 7th Outlook (BAU)

APEC 7th Outlook (2DC)

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

2024

2023

2022

2021

2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

0.0%

2010

Share of modern renewables

14.0%

Source: APEC data and APERC analysis.

28

Closing thoughts

From 2010 to 2018, real progress has been made toward achieving
the renewable doubling goalFurther increases in the share of VREs will require back-up
generation and/or substantial increases in electricity storage toensure grid stabilityEnabled by rapid decrease in costs and favorable government policies (FIT,RPS, etc.)

There are many options, although some are high cost with current
technologies



An APERC study shows that one option for storage is battery electricvehicles (BEVs)

We expect the grid stability challenge to be addressed on an
economy-by-economy basis and APERC will continue to monitor
progress and identify lessons learned over the coming years.
29Thank you for your kind attention.
https://aperc.or.jp/30