APEC RE Doubling Goal

(Preview of High Renewables Scenario)
Michael Ochoada Sinocruz
Senior Researcher
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Fossil Fuels Continue to Dominate
Preliminary Results

Energy Supply 30%
12 000
10 000
Hydro

8 000
Mtoe

Nuclear
Other Renewables

6 000
4 000
2 000
0

Fuel Shares

Gas
Oil

86%

Coal

82%
2013

2040

The Share of Fossil Fuel
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

1990

2013

2040

Coal

27.9%

37.6%

31.4%

Oil

35.7%

27.7%

25.5%

Gas

20.2%

20.5%

24.9%

Hydro

1.9%

2.2%

2.7%

Other Renewables

8.6%

7.4%

10.2%

Nuclear

5.8%

4.6%

5.2%

Source: APERC Analysis

2Renewables in Power and Transport
Total Power Generation Mix
60

27%

25000

24%

Imports(net)
Geothermal

20000

OtherRenewables
Solar

16%

TWh

15000

OilWind

10000

Nuclear2%

50403%
Biodiesel
Demand2%

Mtoe

30000

The Share of Biofuels in Transport Sector

Bioethanol
Demand30

20

Biodiesel
Suppy BAU

10

Bioethanol
Suppy BAU

Hydro
5000

Gas

2010

2030

Source: APERC Analysis

2040

APEC’s doubling goal in renewable is not achieved.

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

2040

02030

02010

CoalPreliminary Results

3

High Renewables in Power Sector

Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Overview of Renewable Policies in APEC Region< Renewable in Power Generation>•••Policies on RE development areanchored on enhancing energy security,
sustaining socio-economic
development, and addressing climatechange.
Setting targets, introducing FIT and/or
RPS and providing incentives, subsidies,and taxation are the common
approaches and strategies to encourage
development and utilization ofrenewable.
FIT scheme is mostly preferred policy
instrument for RE promotion in theAPEC region.

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Renewable energy policies framework

Other regulation
Feed-in- Tariff
Renewable energy
Strategy for
Policy on
Renewable Energy or master plan(FIT) or Renewabletargetdeveloping
renewable energyActrelated toPortfolio Standard
renewable energy
In general In 2030
renewables(RPS)

Australia

Incentives,subsidies, andtaxation

√√

√√√

Χ

Χ

√

Brunei Darussalam

Χ

√√

√

√

Χ

Χ

Χ

CanadaΧ√√√√Χ

F/R *)√Chile√√√√√ΧΧ√China√√√√√ΧF√

Hong Kong, ChinaΧ√√√ΧΧΧ√IndonesiaΧ√√√√√F√

Japan√√√√√√

F√

Korea√√√√√ΧR√

Malaysia√√√√√√F√

Mexico√√√√√ΧΧ√New ZealandΧ√√√√ΧΧ√

Papua New GuineaΧΧ√ΧΧΧΧ

ΧPeru√√√√ΧΧΧ√Philippines√

√

√

√√

√

F and R√

Russia

Χ√√√√

√

F√

SingaporeΧ√√√ΧΧΧ√√

Chinese Taipei√√√√√√FThailandΧ√√√√ΧF√

United StatesΧ√√√√ΧF/R *)√Viet NamΧ√√√√√F√√ΧFR*): Existing: Not Existing currently: Feed-in-Tariff: Renewable Portfolio Standard: Applied in some local teritories or states

Source: APERC Analysis

5General Assumption and Methodology<High Renewable Scenario – Power Sector >••Projection assumes government targets are fully met and the additional renewables
capacity needed to meet the APEC doubling goal is developed based on a least cost
approach for the APEC region. Additional renewable power is identified by consideringthe LCOE per technology and per economy, and the economic potential pertechnology and per economy.

For macroeconomic and general assumptions, all data and information for inputs toLCOE are solicited from many sources and references (e.g. the economy data, reportfrom international energy organizations, international financing institutions).

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

6

Estimated Potential of Renewable Energy
The potential is estimated by considering many factors, such as the government policies,targets, plans, and projections; and estimations using other pertinent sources or referenceswith some data assumption
RussiaUnited States82

Other North East AsiaChina
1,464

213633

South East Asia
221

Oceania

Other Americas

103

244

Total estimated economic potential: 2,960 GW: untapped potential: the potential has been utilized
Source: APERC Analysis
Note: Oceania (Australia, New Zealand and PNG), Other Americas (Canada, Chile, Mexico and Peru), Other North East Asia (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea
and Chinese Taipei), South East Asia (Brunei Barussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam)

Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

7

Declining Electricity Cost from Renewables<Renewable in Power Generation>•Costs of RE technologies (solar and wind) have been declining from 2013 to 2040 indifferent economies where the lowest Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is hydro inViet Nam and the highest is offshore wind in Peru.

Source: APERC Analysis

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

8

Solar and Wind Growing at the Fastest Rates•

Solar Photovoltaic and On-shore Wind will have the highest annual growth rates ininstalled capacity due to abundant untapped economic potential, declining andcompetitive costs of these technologies, and government targets in some economies.
Over the outlook period (2015-2040):
36%

•33%

••

16%

••
Preliminary Results

Source: APERC Analysis

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Hydro is still the prominent technology tobe developed, growing at 2.6% AAGR.
Geothermal is growing at 6.4% of AAGR.

Wind is growing at 8.7% AAGR in power
generation to increase 1 946 TWh in 2030
and 2 539 TWh in 2040.

Solar is growing at the fastest rates of 15%
average annual in power generation toincrease 856 TWh in 2030 and 1 200 TWhin 2040.
Other Renewables are growing at 5.9% ofAAGR.
9Renewables Vary from Region to Region
100

Much of theincreases inrenewablecapacity
will comefrom solarand wind.

RussiaOther Northeast Asia

300

5002000

BAU-2013

HR-2030

China

1500

HR-2040

10001000

Other subregions alsoseesignificant
contributionof hydro.

500
BAU-2013 HR-2030 HR-2040

0Southeast Asia

500
0United States

200

BAU-2013 HR-2030

200BAU-2013HR-2030

HR-2040 100

0300
BAU-2013 HR-2030 HR-2040

Oceania

1000BAU-2013

HR-2030

Other Americas

200100050

2013 BAU: 903 GW
2030 High Renewables (HR): 2,684 GW
2040 High Renewables (HR): 3,257 GW

HR-2040

BAU-2013

HR-2030

HR-2040

HR-2040

Preliminary Results

Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

10China and US Lead Renewable Power Generation
Together, China and United Stated will provide about 70% and 71% of the total renewablegeneration in the region in 2030 and 2040, respectively.
300Russia

Other Northeast Asia

200

400

10005000
4000

2000

200
BAU-2013 HR-2030 HR-2040

China

03000

1500
1000
BAU-2013 HR-2030 HR-2040

Southeast Asia

2000

BAU-2013 HR-2030 HR-2040

0200

BAU-2013 HR-2030 HR-2040

Oceania

0Source: APERC Analysis

01000

BAU-2013 HR-2030 HR-2040

Other Americas

800
600
4001002013 BAU: 2,711 TWh
2030 High Renewables (HR): 7,185 TWh
2040 High Renewables (HR): 8,812 TWh

5005001000
0United States

200
BAU-2013 HR-2030 HR-2040

0BAU-2013 HR-2030 HR-2040

Preliminary Results

Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

11Variable Renewable Integration
EconomyShare of Renewables in Power
Generation in 2030

Share of Renewables in Power
Generation in 2040

Total Share ofRenewables
includingHydropower

Total Share ofRenewables
includingHydropower

Share of Windand Solar Powerin Power
Generation

Share of Windand Solar Powerin Power
Generation

Australia

50%

40%

53%

43%

Brunei Darussalam

9%

8%

10%

8%

Canada

77%

7%

79%

9%

Chile

50%

5%

48%

6%China

34%

14%

38%

17%

Hong Kong, China

1%

1%

1%

1%

Indonesia

41%

3%

48%

11%

Japan

25%

9%

28%

11%

Korea

11%

8%

13%

9%

Malaysia

21%

2%

20%

3%

Mexico

23%

8%

23%

9%

New Zealand

96%

22%

96%

24%

Papua New Guinea

57%

5%

54%

5%

Peru

73%

1%

65%

1%

Philippines

29%

7%

24%

5%

Russia

21%

1%

20%

1%

Singapore

3%

0%

3%

1%

Chinese Taipei

12%

6%

13%

7%

Thailand

14%

4%

11%

4%

United States

34%

24%

40%

29%

Viet Nam

31%

4%

23%

3%

Source: APERC Analysis

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Preliminary Results<Variable Renewable Energy (VRE)
Integration>•

Mostly APEC economies can be
categorized as “Low Share”, except
for several economies such as
Australia and United States.

•According to IEA:–

“Low Share” - No big technicalchallenge to operate a power system
under categorized “Low Share”(IEA,2015).

–“Large Share” - The system-wide
integration needs to be transforming
in order to increase flexibility.

Note:•“Low Share” means that the share of VRE is 5-10% ofannual generation.
•“High Share” means that the share of VRE is 20-45% ofannual generation.

12

High Renewables in Transport Sector

Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

General Assumption and Methodology<HIREN Scenario – Transport Sector>••

Supply Potential- The projection is based on maximising the unutilized agriculturalland and enhancing productivity per cultivated land. Expansion of agricultural land isconsidered through improvement in cultivation structure by crops (energy crops) andmaximising arable land. Those economies with higher productivity levels per cultivatedland will serve as benchmarks for increasing productivity of other economies on theassumption that such could be shared and transferred to others.
Demand - The projection of blend rate is based on the minimum blend rate and/ortarget on biofuels by considering the biofuels supply potential availability.

Area (Ha): Regression by crop price
Productivity (Unit/Ha): Technology parameter
Domestic Consumption: Regression by using GDP and/or Population as drivers

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

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Biofuels Supply Potential••••

Only 12 economies with bioethanol blend or with target blend in the future.
13 economies with supply potential for bioethanol.
Only 12 economies with biodiesel blend or with target blend in the future.
11 economies with supply for bioediesel.
EconomyWith Bioethanol
Blend(Mandated/Target)

With Supply
Potential(Bioethanol)

With Biodiesel
Blend(Mandated/Target)

With Supply
Potential(Biodiesel)

Australia (AUS)
Brunei Darussalam (BD)
Canada (CDA)
Chile (CHL)
China (PRC)
Chinese Taipei (CT)Hong Kong, China (HKC)
Indonesia (INA)
Japan (JPN)
Korea (ROK)
Malaysia (MAS)
Mexico (MEX)New Zealand (NZ)
Papua New Guinea (PNG)
Peru (PE)Philippines (RP)Russia (RUS)
Singapore (SIN)
Thailand (THA)
United States (US)Viet Nam (VN)

√X
√
X
√√
X
√√
X
X
√X
X
√
√X
X
√
√√

√
X
Low
X
Low
X
X
Low
Low
Low
X
Low
X
Low
X
Low
√X
√
√
√

√
X
√
X
√
√
√
√
X
√
√
X
X
X
√√
X
X
√
√
X

Low
X
Low
X
X
X
X
√X
X
√√
√
√
X
√Low
X
Low
Low
X

Source: APERC Analysis

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre15

Lack of Bioethanol Supply Potential
6%6%<Renewable in Transport>•Almost all economies will havepossibilities of increasing biofuels
use in the transport sector bymaximizing unutilized agriculturallands and enhancing productivity
per cultivated area without
necessary affecting food production
and supply.

•Bioethanol supply potential even in
the High Supply Case will not meethigher demand in 2020 andonwards with only 1st generation
biofuels is considered in the model.

2%

Source: APERC Analysis

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Preliminary Results

16

US Leads APEC Bioethanol Production
RussiaOther Northeast Asia
United StatesChina
Southeast Asia

Other Americas

Oceania: HIREN Bioethanol Demand: HIREN Bioethanol Production
Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Source: APERC Analysis

Preliminary Results

17Southeast Asia Dominates Biodiesel Production
RussiaOther Northeast Asia

United States

China

Southeast Asia

Other Americas
Oceania: HIREN Bioethanol Demand: HIREN Bioethanol Production

Source: APERC Analysis

Note: This map is for illustrative purposes and is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory covered by this map.

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Preliminary Results18Biofuels Trade Needed in Short- and Medium Term
<Biofuels Trade>•••

There is a mismatch between
biofuels demand and production in
the APEC Region.
Biofuels trade among APEC
member for short- and mediumterm period is one of solutions.
Developing and deploying
advanced biofuels technologies in
the long-term period.

EconomyBiofuels Supply Potential in 2040

Biofuels Supply Potential in 2030
Remaining
Remaining
Bioethanol Supply Biodiesel Supply(Ktoe)(Ktoe)
Australia
Brunei Darussalam

80−157

Remaining
Bioethanol Supply

Remaining
Biodiesel Supply(Ktoe)(Ktoe)
262−2460000−324−517

68−541

Chile0000

China

−8730

−4580−5489−3679

0−380−41

Indonesia−1162912558−14048

19939

Japan−2087

0−17280Korea

52−110565−1208

Malaysia0

18944022898Mexico−582769

878

2645

New Zealand−29146−37126

CanadaHong Kong, China

Papua New Guinea

7621

131044Peru−465−882−632−1052

Philippines−1317−706−2013−1050

740

5726941260000−63−80−51−75

RussiaSingapore
Chinese Taipei
Thailand259−80321−94

United States

1814−7092

12128−9268

Viet Nam391

0324

0

Note:

Remaining biofuels supply refers to the available biofuels supply volume after the domestic biofuels demand has b

Source: APERC Analysis

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

Preliminary Results

19Total CO2 Emissions in APERC Scenarios

Preliminary Results
APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

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Opportunities for Policy Action<Renewable Power Generation>•Continue to improve business environment for renewables development as “doingbusiness” in some APEC economies are still cumbersome.

•Strengthen and improve the economy’s electricity system to facilitate greater VRE
integration.

<Renewable Transport>•For enhancing biofuels trade among APEC member economies:– Implement the guidelines for the development of biodiesel standard in the APEC
region which was established in 2007 by EGNRET.
– Establish similar standard for bioethanol.

– Establish biofuels blend rate standard for vehicles which can meet the standard ofauto-manufactures.
•Introduce the development and deployment of advanced biofuels to promote greater
utilisation of biofuels.

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

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Next Step Finalize and publish the APEC Energy Demand and Supply
Outlook (6th Edition) next year.
 The annual updating of the APEC Energy Overview (now2015 update) will include discussion on RE share to total
final energy demand and power generation to monitor
overall APEC RE share.

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

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Thank you for your kind attention.
michael.sinocruz@aperc.ieej.or.jp
http://aperc.ieej.or.jp

APERC Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre