EGNRET 50th Meeting @ Honolulu, Hawaii 19-23 March 2018

APERC Presentation: Activity Updates
NGUYEN Linh Dan, PhD
Researcher, Asia-Pacific Energy Research CenterTable of Contents
1. APERC: Activity updates from the 49th EGNRET

2. Current progress of the 7th Outlook for Energy Demand and Supplyin APEC
3. Estimation of bioenergy supply potential in APEC

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1. APERC’s activity updates from the 49th EGNRETAPERC’S FUNCTIONS AND TASKS:1996-:2012-

Instruction

EMM:2008-:2014-

Reporting

EWG:2011-:2017-

EGNRET

EGEEC

EGEDA

EGCFE

LCMT-TF

EILCMTRE
PRLCEPREE PREE &Follow-up PREE
 Compendium EE Policy
Workshop

OGSI
 OGSE (Exercise) OGSN (Network) OGSS (Study)(5) Cooperative Projects

EIRE
(2)

Research on
Market Development &Energy Policies
Oil/Gas/Coal Reports

Overview(1)
APEC
EnergyDemand &SupplyOutlook

Annual Conference
Advisory Board Meeting(4)
Data Network(3)
Model Training
LNG Producer-Consumer
Conferencewith METI

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APERC’s activity updates
November 2017

OGSE in Peru (Lima)

November 2017

EGEDA 29 in Canberra, held by ESTO

November 2017

APERC workshop in Wellington (EWG 54)

November 2017

Publish the final report PRLCE of PNG on APERC’s website

December 2017

LCMT policy review in Krasnoyarsk, Russia

December 2017present

Preparing the APEC Energy Overview with economy’s doubling goal
updatesMarch 2018

OGSN forum in Tokyo

March 2018

EGCFE in Tokyo for oil and gas
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2. The 7th edition of APEC Outlook

Current progress of modelling
To do list for the 7th Edition

Q1 2017

Economy review of assumptions

Model development



Demand model runs

Q2 2017

Q3 2017



Q4 2017

Q1 2018

Economy reviews of model results

Model reruns to respond tocomments

Outlines, drafting of chaptersPublication

Q3 2018 –Q1 20192019

Power & supply model runs

Editing, printing

Q2 2018

April7

Content of the 7th edition: will come in two volumes
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Introduction
Outlook for Energy Demand
Outlook for Energy Supply
Outlook for Power
Achieving APEC goals: Improved Efficiency and High
Renewables
6. Low Carbon Scenario
7. Energy Investments
8. Energy Security
9. Energy Trade
10. Climate Change implementation: Policy
11. Annex I and II: Methodology, Assumptions and Tables.

Volume I: APEC
energy supplyand demand

Volume II:
Economy reviews

8Renewable contents will be covered in Vol. 1, Chap. 3 and 5
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Introduction
Outlook for Energy Demand
Outlook for Energy Supply
Outlook for Power
Achieving APEC goals: Improved Efficiency and High
Renewables
6. Low Carbon Scenario
7. Energy Investments
8. Energy Security
9. Energy Trade
10. Climate Change implementation: Policy
11. Annex I and II: Methodology, Assumptions and Tables.

Volume I: APEC
energy supply anddemand

Volume II:
Economy reviews

9Renewables modelling updates for 7th Edition
 Two alternative scenarios and projection up to 2050
 Integrate renewable energy analysis into Demand (Buildings, Industry, and Transport) andPower models
 Expand list of renewable technologies in Demand and Power models
 Improve daily load curves analysis to quantify impacts of variable renewables in power

 Assess direct renewable use (for heating and cooling applications) Estimate detailed renewable potential by economy and by sector

10Total demand for renewables slightly decreases
Final energy demand by fuel in BAU

Model run on March 1311

Renewables demand across sectors
BAU

TGT

Model run on March 13

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BAU vs. TGT in Power: the share of renewables can rise up to 48%
BAUTGT

Model run on March 13

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Doubling goal could be met by 2033 in BAU and 2025 in TGT
Renewable Doubling Goal Index by FED, 2000-2050

Model run on March 13

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3. Bioenergy potential in APECAPEC has about 1 Gtoe of biomass from waste potential

Model run on March 13

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APEC 2nd gen potential is 60Mtoe, reaching 80Mtoe in 2050

Second generation biofuels are those biofuels produced from cellulose, hemicellulose or lignin; such as cellulosic ethanol (IEA Bioenergy Task 39, 2009)
Model run on March 13

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THANK YOU VERY MUCH