APERC Update
Renewable Energy

Preliminary Result the 8th edition Energy outlook – Renewable Energy

The 56th Meeting of APEC Expert Group on New and Renewable
Energy Technologies
The United States 6-7 April 2022

Outline▪ RE share projection▪ RE in the power generation▪ Closing thoughts2

Scenarios 8th Edition Outlook - Draft

Definition

Reference (REF)

Carbon Neutrality (CN)Recent trends and current policies.

Investigates hypothetical energy
sector net-zero pathways for each
APEC economy through 2050.

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Final Energy Consumption: Modern
renewables share more than doubles by 203040,0% Projection

35,0%

34,2%

Proportion

30,0%
25,0%

16,3%

20,0%

17,4%

15,0%
10,0%

Reference
Carbon neutrality

13,6%
6,1%

5,0%
0,0%
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Source: APERC analysis• Based on the 8th edition preliminary results, the share of modern
renewables in APEC’s energy consumption to double before 2030:
o 13.6% in 2030 in REF
o 16.3% in 2030 in CN
4Power generation: Modern renewables share
more than doubles by 2030
70%
 Projection

60%

Proportion

50%

62%

41%

42%

40%
REF

37%

CN

30%

15%

20%
10%
0%
200020102020

2030

2040

2050

Source: APERC analysis

The 8th edition preliminary results:• Renewables are expected to grow to a 37% share in REF and 41% sharein CN by 2030.
• Solar and wind lead the growth in renewable power generation in bothscenarios.
5Electricity Generation: APEC
▪ Electricity Generation (TWh) – REF▪ Electricity Generation (TWh) - CN

Source: APERC analysis

The 8th edition preliminary results:•Electricity generation increases 45% by 2050 in REF, and more than 55% in the CN,
following the demand trend.

•Electricity generated from coal will decrease significantly, especially in the CN.

•Solar and wind increase up to 27 % in share in 2050 in the REF. Wind and solar will play acrucial role in providing the growth of electricity production in the CN, with a share in 2050
up to 45 %6

Power Generation Capacity : APEC
▪ Power Generation Capacity (GW) - REF▪ Power Generation Capacity (GW) - CN

Source: APERC analysis

The 8th edition preliminary results:•The installed capacity in 2018 was about 4 500 GW. In the REF, installed capacity
increases by 75%, and more than doubles in the CN.

•The share of renewables in the power generation capacity reaches 57% (REF) and 76% (CN) by 2050.

•The projections show that large increases in solar and wind capacities are expected,even in the REF (44% share) and greater in CN (64%).

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Hydrogen projection in APEC
▪ Hydrogen consumption in CN, 2000-2050 (PJ).

▪ Hydrogen production, imports, and exports
in CN, 2000-2050 (PJ).

Source: APERC analysis•

Hydrogen consumption is driven by transport and Industry•

Green hydrogen becomes the dominant production process.

•Challenges to hydrogen adoption, such as : technology, standard, and demandcreation, .

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Closing thoughts


APERC’s preliminary model results indicate that APEC will meet its
renewables’ doubling goal.

Electricity demand will increase significantly, with significant increases
in solar and wind capacities in power generation are expected in thepreliminary model results.

Maintaining grid reliability will be more crucial as the electrification
trend grows in all sectors, yet it will be more challenging to tackle aslarge VRE will come to the grid.

Hydrogen is important for decarbonisation, and the challenges aresubstantial. Green hydrogen is projected to become the dominant
production process in the APERC’s preliminary model results.

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Thank you for your kind attention.
https://aperc.or.jp/

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