43rd Meeting
Expert Group on New and Renewable Energy Technologies (EWG)
Chiang Mai, Thailand, 12-13 November 2014

APEC Renewable Energy Goal:
Definitional Issues
Martin Brown-Santirso (APERC)

Background Renewable Energy Goal
• Under the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) Initiative, the UN has
set a goal of doubling the share of renewable energy in the global
Septemberenergy mix by 2030.
2011:

February2014:• At the First Senior Officials Meeting (SOM1) in China, members
discussed the possibility of committing to a regional energy goalthat is in line with the SE4ALL initiative.

• At the Joint EGNRET and EGEDA Meeting in Hawaii, EGNRET
members discussed the technical aspects of RE goal as well astechnology cost goals.
April 2014: • EGEDA and APERC were tasked to prepare a memorandum tofacilitate the discussions on APEC Renewable Energy Share Doubling
Goal at the APEC EWG 47 Meeting in Kunming, China.

Issues that arise• Objective of the target– Security, carbon, sustainability• Definition– Traditional biomass, large hydro• Data– Statistics availability

Alternative Definitions

PriorityGeothermal

SolarWind

Tidal/WaveLarge Hydro

Small Hydro

ModernBioenergy

Traditional
BiomassWaste

Imported RE3-1. Purpose of the Doubling Goal
•What is the purpose of RE share doubling goal?

EnergySecurity

√

√

√√

√

√

√

X

√

XEmissions
Reduction

√√

√

√

√

√

√

√

√

√

SustainableDevelopment

√√

√

√

X

√

√

X

√

√

Alternative Definitions
An Example of a Definition• From sustainable development perspective the definition would looking atcarbon, human and environmental health, social values, etc.
The APEC goal “Sustainable Energy” could consists of:a) Small-scale hydro;b) Wind;c) Solar (photovoltaic and solar heat);d) Geothermal;e) Bioenergy excluding traditional firewood and charcoal for households;f) Upcoming Alternative energies that meet the sustainable criteria.

Survey of Definitions of Renewable Energy (RE)• Definitions of hydro power should be harmonized to IEA and IRENA.
• Standard methodology for renewable energy survey is recommended.
Table: Comparison of definition of RE (excerpt)

IRES
Municipal w aste (renew able)
Municipal w aste (non-renew )Wood pellets
Other Fuelw ood, w ood
residues and by-products
Other vegetal material andresidues

Black liquor
BagasseHydro electricity

IRENA
Renew able Municipal Waste
other (non-renew able)
Wood and straw
pellets/briquettes
Fuelw ood
Wood w aste

IEA
APEC
Municipal Waste - Renew able
Municipal Solid Waste
Municipal w aste (non-renew )Solid biofuels excluding
charcoal
FireWood & Wood w aste

Rice husks
Straw
Other vegetal and agriculturalw asteOther primary solid biomass
Black liquor
BagasseHydro
Hydro-1 MW
Hydro 1-10 MW
Hydro 10+ MW
Pumped Hydro

Other Biom ass

BagasseHydroHydro-1 MW
Hydro 1-10 MW
Hydro 10+ MW
Pumped hydroHydro

Data Submission in APEC Data Collection• Data for certain types of data is notBagasse

Charcoal

OtherBiomass

BiogasIndustrial
Waste

Municipal
Solid Waste

Liquid Biofuels

Thailand
Viet Nam

FuelWood &Woodwaste

Chinese Taipei

Solar Heat

RussiaSingapore

Geothermal
Heat

Philippines

Solar thermal

PeruWind

Malaysia
Papua New Guinea

Tide,Wave,
Ocean

Indonesia

Photovoltaic

China
Hong Kong, China

Geothermal
Power

Brunei

Hydro

Table: Data Submission of RE from APEC non-OECD economies (2010)○○○○○○○○
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-

○
○
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--

○
○
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○
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○
○
-

○
○
--

○
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-

○
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○
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○
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-○
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-

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-

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-○
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-

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-

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-

Other Issues
Denominator in Share Calculation• Both Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and Total Final Energy
Consumption (TFEC) are possible.
• In order to avoid overestimating the role of RE when low efficiency
accounting method is assumed (or conversely), it is proposed that APEC
uses TFEC as a denominator in RE share calculation.

Example Projection• This trial calculation makes use of
1. The IEA Energy Balance Database for 2005 data.
2. The APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 5th Edition for theforecasted data.
• Due to the data constraints, the “Sustainable RE” categorization here
consists of:
1. All RE power generation.
2. Direct-use of RE (but excludes RE in the residential, commercial andother sector).
• The denominator is the Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC).

Example 1
APEC Outlook Forecasts for Share of RE in APEC TFEC, in 2035:
Examining impact of including hydro in RE Share
8000

With hydroWithout hydro

7000
6000
Mtoe

5000
4000
3000
2000
100002005
Historical

2035
BAU

2035
Doubling Share2005
Historical

2035
BAU

2035
Doubling Share

2.0%

4.4%

4.1%

4.9%

7.8%

9.8%

OthersSustainable RE (exc traditional biomass)Comparing APEC and IEA Forecasts
WEO 2013 Forecasts for Global RE Share in 2035, under 3 Scenarios
14000
12000

Mtoe

10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
02011

2035
CPS

2035
NPS

2035
450

17.0%

17.5%

20.4%

29.0%

Fossil Fuels + Nuclear

Hydro+Bioenergy+Other RE (inc traditional biomass)* Disaggregated data by economy not available* Data for traditional biomass not available

Comparing APEC and IEA Forecasts•Based on available IEA data, comparison can be made for 10 out of 21 APEC
economies (> 85% of APEC TFEC). The following table includes hydropower as RE.

* The ten economies are Canada, Chile, Mexico, USA, Australia, Japan, Korea, New Zealand,Russia and China.

Comparing APEC and IEA Forecasts• The following table does not include hydropower as RE.

* The ten economies are Canada, Chile, Mexico, USA, Australia, Japan, Korea, New Zealand,
Russia and China.

Conclusions• EWG and EGNRET need to define theparameters of the RE target• Issues need to be settled to enablemeasurement.