The 44th Meeting of
APEC Expert Group on New and Renewable Energy Technology
Laoag, Philippines, 13 April, 2015

Attaining RE Doubling Goal by 2030
(The Upcoming APEC Outlook 6th Edition)
Chrisnawan ANDITYA and Michael O. SINOCRUZ
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)

Outline of Presentation
 Rationale and Scope of the 6th APEC Outlook and Issues on RE
Target RE Shares (Preliminary Results)o Final Energy Demando Generating Capacityo Power Generation Mix
 RE Development per Technology (Preliminary Results)
 Approach to Alternative Scenario
 RE Share to Transport (Preliminary Results)
o Approach to Supply Potential Projection

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Rationale for The 6th Edition• Prolonged impact of 2011 Fukushima NuclearDisaster.
• Shale gas revolution.
• Increased uptake and cost competitiveness ofrenewable energy.
• The unexpected fall in oil prices.
• Increased slowdown of the Chinese economy.
• Fast changing APEC economies’ policies.

3Scope of The 6th Edition• Business-as-Usual (BAU) case
Projection of the energy supply and demand is based on the current or existing policies of
the respective economies, including policies in process of implementation.

• Alternative case:o Meeting APEC’s Energy Intensity Target of 45% Reduction by 2035

Focus on demand side policy options to meet APEC’s Energy Intensity target of 45%
reduction by 2035 taking into account improvement of economic structure, andreduction in energy consumption.

o Attaining the APEC Renewable Energy Doubling Goal by 2030

Focus on how the electricity sector and the transport sector could increase thedevelopment and deployment of renewable energy (RE) to achieve APEC doublinggoal.

o The Potential Power Mixes

Identify the potential power mixes maximising the use of either Natural Gas, Cleaneruse of Coal, or Nuclear.
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The Share of RE in The APEC Region
Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC)

 RE share to total FED is expected to remain the same under the BAU.
 Electricity dominates the use of RE among other sectors.
 1,621 MTOE of RE (or additional 1,040 MTOE) is required to realize doubling goal (23%)
in 2030.
5Issue Needs to be Answered• Can APEC achieve its doubling target for renewable energy (RE)?
• How to develop and deploy more RE?
• Will fossil fuel subsidy have an impact on RE development?
• Will fossil fuel (coal, natural gas, and oil) price reduction prevents substitution
to RE?
• How much additional capacity is needed to meet the doubling target in termsof power generation?
• Is there a way to expand the biofuel (bio-ethanol & bio-diesel) production
without competing with food security?
• How is the competitiveness of biofuel with other alternative fuels?
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RE Capacity and Share RE share to total installed capacity
will increase from 22.0% in 2012 to33.0% in 2030 and 38.0% in 2040.
 RE capacity is growing at 4.2%
AAGR with solar and wind growing
at the fastest rates of 11.1% and6.2% average annual, respectively.
 China will provide the largest sharewith 45.0% in 2012, 63.0 % in 2030
and 68.0% in 2040 to total APEC
RE capacity. RE capacity additionin China will be growing at 5.8%AAGR.
Source: APERC Analysis

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RE Share to Generation Mix
 RE share to total generation mix
will increase from 18.0% in 2012
to 23.0% in 2030, and 25.0% in2040.
 RE generation will grow at an
AAGR of 3.2% with solar
exhibiting th fastest growth rate of11.4%, followed by wind with
5.6%.
 China will contribute more to RE
generation in the APEC region –40% in 2012, 54% in 2030, and58% in 2040.
Source: APERC Analysis

8Solar Development (2012-2030)
 All APEC economies show theirinterest to develop more solar power
up to 2030 (except Viet Nam & Papua NewGuinea).

Top 5 Economies in terms of Capacity Addition+5 GW+249 GW

 Capacity addition in China will reach
249 GW until 2030 (20.6% AAGR),
followed by Japan (8.1%), UnitedStates (16.0%), Korea (13.1%) andMalaysia (22.5%).
 China, Japan, United States,
Australia, and Korea are still top 5
economies in terms of total installedcapacity of solar power in 2030.

Source: APERC Analysis+34 GW+22 GW+4 GW

Top 5 Economies in terms of Total Installed CapacityNo

20122030

1.

Japan (11.1 GW)

China (258.0 GW)

2.

China (8.9 GW)

Japan (44.9 GW)

3.

Australia (4.0 GW)

United States (23.3 GW)

4.

United States (1.6 GW)

Australia (7.4 GW)

5.

Korea (0.7 GW)

Korea (6.0 GW)

9Wind Development (2012-2030)
 All APEC economies show theirinterest to develop more wind power
up to 2030 (except Brunei, Malaysia, Papua New
Guinea, and Singapore).

Top 5 Economies in terms of Capacity Addition+0.8 GW+20 GW Capacity addition in China will reach
284 GW in 2030 (9.3% AAGR),
followed by United States (3.6%),
Korea (25.3%), Australia (9.7%), andCanada (5.2%).
 China, United States, Korea,
Canada, and Australia are top 5economies in terms of total installedcapacity of wind power in 2030.

Source: APERC Analysis+42 GW+284 GW+10 GWTop 5 Economies in terms of Total Installed CapacityNo

20122030

1.

China (71.3 GW)

China (355.1 GW)

2.

United States (46.7 GW)

United States (88.5 GW)

3.

Canada (5.1 GW)

Korea (20.6 GW)

4.

Japan (2.6 GW)

Canada (12.8 GW)

5.

Australia (2.4 GW)

Australia (12.8 GW)

10Hydro Development (2012-2030)
Top 5 Economies in terms of Capacity Addition

 All APEC economies show theirinterest to develop more hydro power
up to 2030 (except Brunei, Hong Kong, Papua
New Guinea, and Singapore).

+7 GW+234 GW

 Capacity addition in China will reach
234 GW in 2030 (3.8% AAGR),
followed by Viet Nam (3.7%),
Indonesia (6.8%), Canada (0.5%),
and Malaysia (4.3%).
 China, Canada, United States,
Russia, and Viet Nam are top 5economies in terms of total installedcapacity of hydro power in 2030.

Source: APERC Analysis+10 GW+6 GW+9 GW

Top 5 Economies in terms of Total Installed Capacity
No

2012

2030

1.

China (246.0 GW)

China (480.0 GW)

2.

United States (77.9 GW)

Canada (83.8 GW)

3.

Canada (76.6 GW)

United States (80.4 GW)

4.

Russia (48.5 GW)

Russia (50.0 GW)

5.

Japan (20.8 GW)

Viet Nam (21.5 GW)

11Geothermal Development (2012-2030)
Top 5 Economies in terms of Capacity Addition

 Only 7 economies (Australia, Indonesia,Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand,
Philippines, Russia, and United States)
show their interest to develop moregeothermal power up to 2030.

+2 GW+0.2 GW

 Capacity addition in Indonesia willreach 3 GW in 2030 (6.3% AAGR),
followed by United States (2.3%),
Australia (64.6%), New Zealand (3.4%),
and Mexico (1.0%).
 United States, Indonesia, Philippines,
New Zealand, and Mexico are top 5economies in terms of total installedcapacity of geothermal power in 2030.
Source: APERC Analysis+3 GW+0.8 GW+0.6 GW

Top 5 Economies in terms of Total Installed Capacity
No

2012

2030

1.

United States (3.5 GW)

United States (5.3 GW)

2.

Philippines (1.8 GW)

Indonesia (4.1 GW)

3.

Indonesia (1.3 GW)

Philippines (1.9 GW)

4.

Mexico (0.8 GW)

New Zealand (1.3 GW)

5.

New Zealand (0.7 GW)

Mexico (1.1 GW)

12Biomass etc. Development (2012-2030)
Top 5 Economies in terms of Capacity Addition

 All APEC economies show their interest
to develop more biomass etc. up to2030 (except Hong Kong, Papua New Guinea, andSingapore).

+2 GW+41 GW

 Capacity addition in China will reach 41
GW until 2030 (10.2% AAGR), followed
by United States (1.1%), Malaysia(7.3%), Thailand (4.7%), and Korea(5.5%).
 China, United States, Japan, Thailand,and Malaysia are top 5 economies interms of total installed capacity ofbiomass etc. in 2030.
Note:Etc. means other renewables such as ocean power.
Source: APERC Analysis

+3 GW

+2 GW
+3 GW

Top 5 Economies in terms of Total Installed CapacityNo

20122030

1.

United States (13.7 GW)

China (49 GW)

2.

China (8.5 GW)

United States (16.6 GW)

3.

Japan (4.5 GW)

Japan (5.6 GW)

4.

Thailand (1.9 GW)

Thailand (4.3 GW)

5.

Canada (1.7 GW)

Malaysia (3.8 GW)

13Approach to Alternative Case
• Review and assess the APEC’s energy
resources potential and capacity.

Methodology• Identify the possible type of RE to be
developed by share and capacity, and also
looking at some factors (e.g. technology,economics, etc.).
• Assess the capacity of each APEC
economy to develop those possible types ofRE.
• Find the implications and challenges foro

APEC as wholeoeach APEC economyo

APEC as whole• Provide policy recommendation foro

each APEC economy
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The Share of RE in Transport Sector
Total Final Energy Consumption (TFEC)• With no changes in the blend
rates of biofuels in APEC
economies, the share of biofuels
to total transport energy demand
will remain the same.
• To increase the share of biofuels(double the share) to totaltransport demand, biofuelsconsumption should increase from32 MTOE in 2012 to 95 MTOE in2030, and 107 MTOE in 2040.

Source: APERC Analysis• To increase share of biofuels,
blend levels for biodiesel andbioethanol must be higher, suchas from 5% blend rate to 10%
blend rate.
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Bioethanol Utilization in 2012-2030
Top 5 Economies in terms of Consumption Addition

 Bioethanol will be utilized more in 10
APEC economies up to 2030 (Australia;Canada; China; Indonesia; Mexico; New Zealand; Peru;Philippines; Thailand; and Viet Nam).
+9817 ktoe

 Additional consumption of bioethanol
will be rapidly increased in China,reaching 9,817 ktoe in 2030 (13.8%AAGR), followed by Indonesia Mexico,Philippines, and Thailand.
 United States, Philippines, Peru,Thailand, and Canada are top 5
economies in terms of blend rate ofbioethanol in 2030.

Source: APERC Analysis+674 ktoe+378 ktoe+628 ktoe+717 ktoe

Top 5 Economies in terms of Blend RateNo

2012

2030

1.

United States (6.23%)

United States (7.06%)

2.

Philippines (5.55%)

Philippines (6.21%)

3.

Peru (4.65%)

Peru (5.73%)

4.

Canada (3.92%)

Thailand (4.61%)

5.

Thailand (1.90%)

Canada (4.60%)

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Biodiesel Utilization in 2012-2030
Top 5 Economies in terms of Consumption Addition

 Biodiesel will be utilized more in 11
APEC economies up to 2030 (Australia;Canada; China; Hong Kong; Indonesia; Korea; Malaysia;
New Zealand; Peru; Philippines; and United States).
+9817 ktoe

 Additional consumption of biodiesel will
be rapidly increased in United States,
reaching 1,983 ktoe until 2030 (3.9%AAGR), and followed by Indonesia
Peru, China, and Philippines.
 Thailand, Peru, Indonesia, Korea, andCanada are top 5 economies in termsof blend rate of biodiesel in 2030.

Source: APERC Analysis+674 ktoe+378 ktoe+628 ktoe+717 ktoe

Top 5 Economies in terms of Blend RateNo

2012

2030

1.

Thailand (5.64%)

Thailand (6.51%)

2.

Peru (6.07%)

Peru (6.46%)

3.

Indonesia (3.65%)

Indonesia (3.79%)

4.

Canada (2.53%)

Korea (2.69%)

5.

Korea (2.08%)

Canada (2.60%)

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Approach to Supply Potential Projection

Area (Ha): Regression by crop priceProductivity (Unit/Ha): Technology parameter
Domestic Consumption: Regression by using GDP and/or Population as drivers

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Approach to Supply Potential Projection
BAU Case
The projection is based on existing cultivation condition and structure. Only thecrop with surplus production after the domestic consumption and food export forinternational demand as defined by FAO will be considered as potential
feedstock.
High Case
Maximize the unutilized agricultural area and productivity per cultivated area.
Arable land as defined by FAO is the full expansion of agricultural area. The modelconsiders as an external variable the increase in cultivated area through maximization ofarable land.
Higher productivity level on each type of crop in the region is set as the baseline value.
The sources of high productivity level such as technology are said to be available andcould be shared and transferred in the region.

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Approach to Supply Potential Projection
Arable Land for Expansion<Assumption>
 Maximize the unutilized agricultural land* in member economies.
 The expansion of agricultural land will be based on improving thecultivation structure by crops.
Potential to increase productivity<Assumption>
 Maximize the productivity per cultivated land in member economies.
 Some economies with higher productivity levels for crops will be chosen
as benchmarks for other economies for possible improvement orincrease in crop production productivity.
 The cultivation technology could be transferred to all membereconomies.
(Note) * FAO Statistics define as arable land + permanent crop.

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Thank you for your kind attention
anditya@aperc.ieej.or.jp
michael.sinocruz@aperc.ieej.or.jp

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