APEC Renewable Energy Forecast

Challenges from RE side to achieved APEC energy goals
The 53th Meeting of APEC Expert Group on Renewable Energy Technologies (EGNRET)
Seoul, South Korea, 23 Oct 2019

Alexey Kabalinskiy | Victor Martinez, Researcher

What does APERC’s Outlook do?
Challenges faced by APEC economies:▪ Affordably meet growing energy demand▪ Reduce negative energy-related
environmental impacts▪ Enhance energy security and resilience
APERC’s 7th Edition Outlook aims to answer:▪ What would energy demand, supply, andemissions in APEC look like in 2050, basedon present practices?
▪ How can we achieve global decarbonisation
goals?
▪ How would acting on such goals change
future energy demand, supply, investment,or security?

APEC primary energy supply mix [%]2

Renewables modelling in the 7th Edition•
••

•

•
•

Integrated renewables analysis into Demand andPower models;
Improved policy analysis, incorporate technical limits
etc.;
Expanded list of renewable technologies: separated
large, medium, small and pumped hydro; onshore
and offshore wind; and introduced concentrated
solar power and marine energy;
Improved hourly demand and generation data (loadcurves) to quantify the impacts of variable
renewables in Electricity;
Assessed potential for renewable heating andcooling;
Based on historical data availability biomass iscounted as traditional in Residential and Commercial
buildings and Agricultural and non-specified.

Scenarios

4

APEC aspirational goal:
A super wicked problem
APEC is poised to achieved its aspirational goal to reduce the energy intensity
45% (2035) and double the share of RE by 2030.
••

The APEC energy
intensity goal is met
but the renewable
share doubling goal isnot. (renewable sharefalls just short of thegoal).
Efficiency, renewables,
nuclear and CCS are all
required for COP 21goals

Renewable Share Goal (2010-30)
16.8%

18%→ Projection

16%

12.8%

14%
12%
10%
8%
6%

5.4%

B
ett
er

9.9%
7.0%

4%
2%
Share
in FED0%
2000

20102020
BAU

2030
TGT

2040

2050

Source: APEC and IEA data and APERC analysis

5In 2016, APEC generated 56% of global
renewable energy (TWh)
6 000

5 000

• In 2000-16, APEC
generated 49% to56% of globalrenewables
electricity.

TIDAL
GEOTHERMAL

4 000

BIOENERGY
3 000

WIND
SOLAR

2 000

HYDRO• Key drivers havebeen hydro andwind generation.
2016

TIDAL

GEOTHERMAL

WIND

SOLAR

HYDRO

2000

0TWh

BIOENERGY

World

1 000

Sources: IRENA (2018), APERC analysis.

6Share of renewables grows in all scenarios
APEC Final Demand in BAU share of renewables
7 000

35%
→ Projection

6 000

30%

5 000
4 000

16.8%

15.8%

3 000

12.8%

2 000

12.2%

1 000

25%
20%
15%

Mtoe
010%

0%
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

Electricity (renewable)
Renewables (modern)Renewables (traditional)
Gas
Oil

5%

5.4%

HeatElectricity (non-renewable)

Share of renewables

24.9%

Other

Coal
RE share in 2DC (right axis)
RE share in TGT (right axis)
RE share in BAU (right axis)

2050

•

The doubling goal is NOT achieved in BAU, and energy sector is dominated byfossil fuels;•In TGT, accelerated development of renewables achieve the goal in 2025.
Sources: IEA (2018), APERC analysis.

7

Slightly more renewables in the TGT Scenario
Energy efficiency and renewables in the BAU and TGT, 2010-30

Final energy demand falls (mainly transport), but renewable supply increases (mainly solar),which has a two-fold impact on the doubling goal.
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018).

8

25% more renewable capacity additions needed peryear in TGTGeneration capacity by fuel, TGT to BAU, 2016-50

To reach the renewables doubling goal, APEC needs to add an average 119 GW ofrenewable capacity (excluding pumped hydro) each year from 2016 to 2030, a 25%
increase on the average additions in the BAU.
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018).

9Electricity drives renewable development
Industry

2000 2010

2050

423

1202DC

2030

1Index 0(2010=1)

TGT

2010

BAU TGT 2DC

3BAU

2030

Mtoe
-5

Agriculture
and other2010

Industry

42010

500

62030

Transport

52010

Buildings

1 000

Buildings 6 Electricity

72030

Electricity

Transport

2010

1 500

Agriculture
and other

2030→Projection

Industry

2010

2 000

Sectoral renewables index,
7 2010-30

2030

Renewables by sector, 2000-50

Sources: IEA (2018), APERC analysis.

•In BAU, renewable electricity more than triples and accounts for 70%,

•In TGT, combination of energy efficiency and modest RE growth, helps achieve thedoubling goal,•In 2DC, Electricity decarbonisation drives renewables demand.
10

To meet the 2DC pathway, RE would need to increased and its
requires consolidated efforts by all APEC economies.
For the electricity sector, the deployment of a range oftechnologies, including VRE is needed.
Generation

Capacity•

Electricity generationfrom VRE in 2DC
reaches 31% at 2050.

10 000

20 000→ Projection

9 000→ Projection

16 000

8 000
7 000

12 000

6 000
5 000

8 000

4 000

•

Emission reduction isachieved by installed
solar PV and wind
power instead of fossil
fuel-based power
plants.

3 000
4 000

2 000
1 000

TWh0

GW02016

2020

2030

2040

2050

2016

2020

2030

2040

2050

Coal

Coal w/ CCS

Oil

Gas

Gas w/ CCS

NuclearHydroWind

Bioenergy

Bioenergy w/ CCS

SolarGeothermal & others

Storage

Net imports

Power capacity [GW] and electricity generation [TWh]by fuel, 2016-50

1125% more RE capacity additions in TGT
To reach the renewables doubling goal, APEC needs to add an average 119 GW ofrenewable capacity (excluding pumped hydro) each year from 2016 to 2030, a 25% increaseon the average additions in the BAU.
Installed capacity by fuel, 2016-50

10 000

8 000

4 000

53%

49%

41%

StorageGeothermal &others
Solar

58%

51%

6 000

60%

Bioenergy

30%

Wind

Hydro

2 000

2030

2016

2050

BAU
BAU

2030

2050

TGT
TGT

2030

2050

RE

Nuclear

FossilRE

Nuclear

FossilRE

Nuclear

FossilRE

Nuclear

FossilRE

Nuclear

FossilRE

FossilGW0

Nuclear

Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

2DC
2DC
Sources: APERC analysis and IEA (2018).

12APEC renewable electricity generation share grows
Electricity generation by fuel, 2016-50

25 00032%
28%

20 000
15 000

39%
34%

58%

41%

21%

Geothermal &others
Solar
BioenergyWind

10 000

Hydro

5 000

Nuclear

2030
2016

2050

BAU
BAU

2030

2050

2030

TGT
TGT

RE

Nuclear

FossilRE

Nuclear

FossilRE

Nuclear

FossilRE

Nuclear

FossilRE

Nuclear

FossilRE

Fossil0TWh

Nuclear

Gas
Oil
Coal

2050

2DC2DC

Sources: IEA (2018), APERC analysis•

In BAU, the share of renewable electricity grows from 21% to 32%;

•In TGT, electricity demand is 16% below BAU and the share reaches 39%;

•In 2DC, carbon-free electricity is 76%; 58% is RE, driven by wind and biomass.

13Estimating solar potential in buildings
Solar PV potential, 2016-50

Solar hot water potential, 2016-50

5 000

1 000

4 000

Solar PV in
Services

3 000
2 000

Solar PV inResidential

1 000

TWh0BAU

2016

TGT

2DC2050

MAXHEAT

800

Solar hotwater inServices

600
400

Solar hotwater inResidential

2000TWhBAU

2016

TGT2DCMAX
HEAT

2050
Source: APERC analysis.

•Solar photovoltaic (PV) potential exceeds 4 500 TWh, or 395 Mtoe, in 2050.

•MAX HEAT is a case with maximised solar heating deployment. Solar water heating could supply over
30% of residential demand.

14Electricity decarbonises the most in 2DC
APEC CO2 emissions, by sector, 2016-2050
Buildings

20 000Industry

15 000Transport

10 000

E_Own
5 000Electricity

MtCO02

2016

BAU
2050

-TGT
2050

-2DC
2050
Sources: IEA (2018) and APERC analysis.

•In TGT, electricity accounts for 37% of CO2 reduction followed by transport (36%).

•In 2DC, the sector decarbonises the most (-91%), contributing nearly 2/3 of the total.

15From the policymakers' side, increasing renewabledeployment requires•

A strong institutional framework to support policies and specific energy
targets: i.e., carbon neutrality policy.

•Tender process (auctions) to support the entrance and uptake ofrenewables.

•Easy access and priority for small-scale renewables developers•

Utility obligations/quotas (share) for modern renewables.

•

Net-metering/ Net-billing implementation for end users.

•

Gradually incorporation of carbon-tax and associated environmental
policies to boost competitiveness.

•Reliability and adequacy in the power system need to be addressed:
Flexibility is required to maximize the efficient integration of VRE.

16

The energy transition is an opportunity to increase the role of renewablesin the energy mix but there is not a single recipe.

A dynamic policy is needed to articulate:
••••
••
•

New trends and technological advances/disruptions.
Improved technical-economics modeling of energy systems
Working with local communities
Strength education in energy, economy and related subjects.
New financial and market mechanisms for low-carbon technologies.
Economical alternatives to carbon-intensive technologies and potential
phase-out of inefficient power plants i.e., subcritical coal power plants.
Direct and indirect effects of decarbonization policies on jobs local
communities in the short and mid-term.

17New Outlook is underway…

We have been providing data and analysis from theOutlook to support policy actions from theeconomies, and we open to suggestions to improvethe 8th Edition of the Outlook.

18

Thank you!
https://aperc.ieej.or.jp/
https://aperc.ieej.or.jp/publications/reports/outlook.php

19Further related Work
Decarbonization roadmap
This is an opportunity to review the outcomes of thedocument: “Filling the Gap to Double Renewable Energy in theAPEC Region” and update its objectives.
• Incorporating an additional perspective toward carbon
neutrality, i.e., a multidisciplinary approach.
• Efficient integration of variable renewable energy.
• Carbon consequences of investment decisions, i.e., tipping
points of gas investment who may affect emissions targets.
• Roadmap periodicity and flexibility.
20