APERC Update
EGEEC 61 and EGNRET 59 Joint Meeting

17 October 2023 – Makati City, Metro Manila, The Philippines
Ting-Jui (Ray) SUN
Senior Researcher, APERC

Outline• Energy intensity and renewable energy share projections from the
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition• Recent policy developments on energy efficiency and renewableenergy• Preparing the APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 9th Edition2

Outline• Energy intensity and renewable energy share projections from the
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition• Recent policy developments on energy efficiency and renewableenergy• Preparing APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 9th Edition

3Energy demand decouples significantly from economic activity
Energy demand by fuel in REF (PJ)

Energy demand by fuel in CN (PJ)

300 000

300 000
 Projection

Others

250 000

 Projection

Others

250 000

Heat
200 000

Electricity

Heat
200 000

Electricity

Hydrogen150 000

Biomass
Other renewables

100 000

Hydrogen150 000

Biomass
Other renewables

100 000

Gas
50 000
02000

Oil
Coal
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Gas
50 000
02000

Oil
Coal
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

• In CN, energy efficiency and electrification enable energy demand to be 22% lower in 2050 relative to REF.

• In CN, energy use peaks in 2025.

Note: Carbon Neutrality (CN) Scenario
4Electricity demand is increasingly met with generation from wind andsolar . . .
Electricity generation in REF (TWh)Electricity generation in CN (TWh)30 00030 000 Projection

Imports

25 000

Imports

 Projection
25 000

Other

Other
20 000

Solar

Solar

20 000WindWind
15 000

Hydro
Nuclear

10 000Hydro

15 000

Nuclear
10 000

Oil

Oil
5 000
02000

Gas
Coal2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Gas CCS

5 000

Gas02000Coal CCS2010

202020302040

2050• Growth in electricity generation to meet increased demand, primarily in buildings and transport.

• Natural gas substitution for coal continues and provides balancing and ancillary services to the electric grid.

Note: Carbon Neutrality (CN) Scenario
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APEC projected to meet dual energy goals
Final energy intensity (2005 = 100)

Share of modern renewable energy

120

40%
35%

100

30%
80

25%

60

20%
15%

40

Reference
Carbon Neutrality

202035200502000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

10%

Reference

5%

Carbon Neutrality

0%
2000

2010
2010

2030
2020

2030

2040

2050

• Final energy intensity declines 45% by 2034 in REF and by 2031 in CN• Modern renewable energy share doubles by 2026 in REF and by 2025 in CN

6SummaryRenewable energy share driven primarily by RE electricity generation in twoeconomies.
Achieving the renewable energy share target is relatively straightforward whileattaining the energy intensity target carries a higher level of risk.

Outlook results indicate that APEC is on track to meet both energy goals
APERC will continue to track both energy intensity and the renewable energyshare7Outline• Energy intensity and renewable energy share projections from theAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition• Recent policy developments on energy efficiency and renewableenergy• Preparing APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 9th Edition

8Recent policy developments on Energy Efficiency in APEC

Information

Incentives

Regulation(AUS) Commercial Building Disclosure:1000 sqm or more office space should
provide EE information for sale or lease.

(CDA) Greener Homes Initiative: Provide
grants and loans to help owners renovate
but must undertake both a pre- and postretrofit energy evaluation and launch Oilto Heat Pump financial supports for lowincome groups.

(JPN) Revised Act on Rationalization ofEnergy Use: Require significant energy
users to report non-fossil-fuel usage,
submit an energy transition plan, andencourage the demand response
measures.

(USA) Inflation Reduction Act: on energy
efficiency and electrification: Provide tax
credits for EVs, Energy Efficient Home,and Electrification.

(PRC) Benchmarking Levels for Energy
Efficiency in Industry Key Areas:
expanding and improving benchmarking
levels from 25 to 36 fields.

(CT) Building Energy-Efficiency Rating
System:Buildings that wish to obtain a green
building label must provide energy
efficiency information.

Source: APERC Energy Overview 2023 (2023) and other news websites.

9Recent policy developments on Renewable Energy in APEC

Market-basedIncentives(JPN) Introduction of Feed-in Premium(FIP): Introduce the FIP system toencourage power generation linked tomarket prices to reflect the actual cost.

(CDA) Clean Energy Technology & Clean
Electricity Investment Tax Credit:
15%~30% refundable invest. tax credits
are funded by the federal government(e.g. non-fossil value, balancing cost)(ROK)Renewable Energy Bidding System:
Introduce renewable energy generators(greater than 3MW) to participate in theelectricity bidding market to stabilize thesupply and demand of the electricitymarket.

Regulation(CT) Renewable Energy Dept. Act (Revs.):1. Major electricity users (>5000 kW)
must install above 10% of thecontracted capacity of RE, energy
storage, or procure T-RECs;(USA) National Clean Investment Fund & 2. New buildings are required to install aClean Communities Investment
specific capacity of solar panels.
Accelerator : capitalize on clean energy
financing and invest. and support
underserved communities. (Part of IRA)

Note: RECs (Renewable Energy Certificates)

Source: APERC Energy Overview 2023 (2023) and other news website.

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Takeaways
Energy efficiency policies can progressively enhance the clarity of energyrelated information, guiding consumers toward more energy-efficient choices.
Electrification and demand response have been integrated into current energy
efficiency regulations and incentive programs.
Renewable energy policies have considered the intermittency of renewableenergy to mitigate the potential impacts on the power grid.

11Outline• Energy intensity and renewable energy share projections from theAPEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 8th Edition• Recent policy developments on energy efficiency and renewableenergy• Preparing APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 9th Edition

12

Preparing the Outlook 9th Edition• Since the 1st edition was published in 1998, the APEC Energy Outlook has responded to global trends.
• From 6th to 8th edition of the APEC Energy Outlook, the scenarios have continuously updated.
• APERC provide two potential energy pathways for the APEC Energy Outlook 9th Edition.
• The projection period for the Outlook 9th Edition is until 2060
• Considering the critical technology development trends (CCS, Energy storage, EV and Hydrogen)
6th

7th

8th

9thPeriod

2013-2040

2016-2050

2018-2050

2021-2060

Base year

2013

2016

2018

2021

Business-as-Usual (BAU)

Reference (REF)

Reference (REF)

Scenarios

Business-as-Usual (BAU)
Improved Efficiency (IE)High Renewables (HR)Alternative Power Mix(APM)

2-Degrees Celsius (2DC)

Carbon Neutrality (CN)Target(TGT)

2019

2022

2025Publication

2016

APEC Target (TGT)13Main objectives for Outlook 9th Edition• Two core objectives are:
1. Estimate energy demand and supply trends
2. Estimate progress on APEC energy-related goals• Additional objectives are:
1. Estimate CO2 emissions from energy combustion

2. Quantify the decarbonization of power sector. (discussing new APEC target)
3. Provide a rough estimate of fugitive methane emissions from the supply side
4. Estimate the capital investment in key sectors
5. Communicate challenges and opportunities along policy pathways
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Scenario in the 9th Edition
The Reference scenario (REF)• A set of economy-specific pathways where existing policies are retained, and new policy
measures are included if and only if they are supported by implementation details.
• In the absence of details, energy intensity, fuel switching, investment, technology deployment,
and energy supply are assumed to loosely follow historical trends.
The Target scenario (TGT)*• Illustrates a hypothetical pathway for each economy towards realizing energy-related policy
targets, even if implementation details are not available.
• When details are not available, economy targets provide directional guidance and a general
sense of policy priorities to inform assumptions.

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Next Steps• Scenario assumption setting: APERC researchers are creating scenario assumptions for eacheconomy and may reach out to economy representatives for feedback• Analysis: modeling scenarios for each economy and have several internal discussions.
• External reviews: APERC researchers will share preliminary results with economy representatives

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Thank you.
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