JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

CO2 Emissions from Cars: New Policy
Measures and Research Activities in Europe

G. Martini
Institute for Environment and Sustainability
Transport and Air Quality UnitNTSEL Symposium
Tokyo, 31 July 2008

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Where does the JRC fit
in the European Commission?
President Barroso

27 Commission Members

Commissioner Potočnik
Science and Research

Joint Research Centre (JRC)

Research DG (RTD)

JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Research-Based Policy Support
JRC - Robust Science for Policy Making
As a Directorate-Generalof the European Commission,
the JRC provides customer-driven
scientific and technical supportto Community policy making
Supporting citizen’s security, healthand environmental protection, safety offood and chemicals, alternative energies,
nuclear safety, econometrics, prospective
technologies…

3

JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

The European Climate Change Programme• The European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) was established in2000 to help identify the most cost-effective EU measures that could
enable the EU to meet its target under the Kyoto protocol.
• The Second European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) II waslaunched in October 2005 with the objective of exploring further costeffective options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

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5European Climate Change ProgrammeFindings• Transport is the second largest sector of GHG emissions accounting for
19% of EU-25 emissions in 2003.
• Road transport is the biggest transport emission source (94% share).
• Passenger cars alone are responsible for around 12% of EU CO2emissions.
• Without further measures domestic transport GHG emissions could
increase for the EU-15 by almost 31% by 2010 (compared to 1990) and up
to 50% by 2020.
Reducing CO2 emissions from new cars is a key priority of EU climate changepolicy.

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Past emissions baseyear-2003

Change in EU-15 GHG emissions by sector base year to 2003, sector projections "with existing" and"with additional measures" base year to 201024%

Transport-19%

Industrial processes
Agriculture-10%

Transport
20.9%

-32%
-3%

Energy excl. transport

31%

Transport-4%

Industrial processes-13%

Agriculture
Waste -52%

-9%

Energy excl. transport

Projections withadditional measures baseyear-2010

Projections with existingmeasures base year-2010-3%

Energy excl. transport

Waste

Waste
Agriculture 2.3% Solvents /Other
9.9%
0.2%
Industrialprocesses
6.3%

22%

Transport
Industrial processes-20%

Agriculture-15%

Waste -53%
-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

2003

Energy use
excludingtransport
60.3%

JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

7“Old” EU strategy on CO2 and cars
EU objective: To achieve a fleet average of new passenger car of 120 g CO2/km
by 2012 (equivalent to 4.5 l/100 km diesel or 5l/100km gasoline)• Three pillars strategy:– Agreements with car industry– Consumer information : EU Directive 1999/94/EC requires the display oneach new car of a label showing its fuel consumption and CO2 emissions– Fiscal measures: the Commission has proposed EU legislation aimed atincluding a CO2 element in national car taxes.

JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Agreement with manufacturers• Commitments have been concluded with the European (ACEA), theJapanese (JAMA) and Korean (KAMA) automobile industries.
• Same CO2 emission objective: 140 gCO2/km(to be achieved by 2009 by JAMA and KAMA and by 2008 by ACEA).
• Means of achievement: achievement of the CO2 target 'mainly' bytechnological developments.

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Progress so far…
• During the period 1998 to 2004, the car industry associations(ACEA, JAMA and KAMA) substantially met all the obligations
stated in their commitments• The reduction in CO2 emissions has been overwhelmingly
achieved by technological developments (in particular diesel)• The impact of the measures taken under the other two pillars(labelling/taxation) has been limited

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Voluntary Commitments: major efforts still needed…
12.4% reduction in 2004 compared to 1995, out of total 25% required by 2008/9…
210

EU15 level in 1995:
186 gCO2/km

200

Voluntarycommitments:
140 g CO2/km in2008/9

180
170
160
150
140130EU objective: 120 gCO2/km

120ACEA

JAMA

KAMA

ACEA (required)

JAMA (required)

KAMA (required)EU-15

20142013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

110
1995

g CO2/km, annual average

190

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11

“Old” EU strategy on CO2 and cars
Results• The strategy has brought only limited progress towards achieving the target of120g CO2/km by 2012.
• Between 1995 and 2004 average emissions from new cars sold in the EU-15
fell by 12.4%, from 186g CO2/km to 163g CO2/km.
• Over the same period new cars sold in the EU became significantly bigger andmore powerful.

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Fleet evolution
1301201995
19961997
1998
1999
200020012002
2003

1995 = 1004035302520
151050
120+les
12 s
114
14 0116
16 0118
18 0120
20 0
125
25 0
130
30 0
135
0>350. % of new car registrations .

ACEA's "wave-effect" of CO2 categories
towards enhanced fuel efficiency (g/km)

110
100
9080
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Mass

PowerCapacity

CO2

Physical ACEA Fleet Characteristics (1995=100)

CO2 Categories (g/km)(source: Commission/ACEA joint report on CO2 and cars, reporting year 2003)

JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

13

Review of the EU strategy (2005-06)• As part of the European Climate Change Programme, in the last years theCommission carried out a review of the strategy• The conclusion of the review is that the voluntary approach has delivereda solid CO2 reduction but has not been as successful as hoped.
• Given the slower than expected progress to date, the 120g CO2/km target
will not be met by 2012 without additional measures

Revised EU strategy on CO2 emissions from cars

JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

14

“Revised” EU strategy on CO2 and cars
Main measures (1):• EU legislation to reduce CO2 emissions from new cars and vans.
• Target: : 120g CO2/km by 2012 (average emissions from new cars sold inthe EU-27)• Improvements in motor technology would have to reduce average emissions
to no more than 130g/km, while complementary measures (more efficientMAC, low rolling resistance tyres,…) would contribute a further emissions cutof up to 10g/km.
• For vans, the fleet average objectives would be 175g by 2012 and 160g by
2015, compared with 201g in 2002.

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“Revised” EU strategy on CO2 and cars
Main measures (2):• Support for research efforts aimed at further reducing emissions from new cars
to an average of 95g CO2/km by 2020.
• Measures to promote the purchase of fuel efficient vehicles (amendment to thecar labelling directive to make it more effective and by encouraging Member
States that levy road tax to base it on cars' CO2 emissions.)• An EU code of good practice on car marketing and advertising to promote moresustainable consumption patterns.

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

The proposed new regulation• The draft legislation defines a limit value curve of permitted emissions of CO2for new vehicles (from 2012) according to the mass of the vehicle.

CO2 emission limit value [g/km]

250

200

Permitted specificemissions of CO2 =Limit value
curve

130 + a × (M – M0)

150
130 g/km

Where:
M = mass in kg
M0 = 1289.0
a = 0.0457

100

5005001000

1500

2000Vehicle mass [kg]

2500

3000

JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

17The proposed new regulation• Manufacturers will still be able to make cars with emissions above the limit
value curve provided these are balanced by cars which are below the curve.
• Manufacturers can group together to form a pool in order to meet theemissions targets• Excess emissions premium if the average emission levels are above the limit
value curve.
– Number of grams per kilometre (g/km) that an average vehicle sold by the manufacturer
is above the curve, multiplied by the number of vehicles sold by the manufacturer. Apremium of €20 € per g/km has been proposed for the first year (2012), rising to €35 in2013, €60 in 2014, and €95 in 2015 and thereafter.

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

How are the manufacturers placed in relation to their targets?
Average CO2 emissions of new cars manufactured in 2006.
300
Porschet

2006 trendline
average mass
250
average CO2 [g/km]

SubaruBMW

Mitsubishi

Mazda

GM

200

Daimler
Chrysler

NissanSuzukiToyota160

Volkswagen

150
Hyundai
Fiat

100
1000

PSA

Renault

1100

1200

Honda

1300

Ford

1400

1500

1600

average mass [kg]Further progress required to attain the targets (g/km)

1700

PSA Peugeot-Citroen16

Renault

20

Fiat

22

Honda

25

Toyota

25

GM

28

Ford

30

Volkswagen

31

Hyundai

32

Nissan38

Suzuki41

Mitsubishi

41

Mazda

43

BMW

45

DaimlerChrysler

46

Subaru81

Porsche138

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Additional measures: the fuel quality directive proposalArticle 7a
Greenhouse Gas emission reduction•

From 1 January 2009, monitoring and report the life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions
from transport fuels.

•From 1 January 2011, suppliers of fuels for road transport and non-road mobilemachinery have to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas emissions from thosefuels.
– The reduction shall equal an additional 1% of the emissions in 2010 per year for eachcalendar year up to and including 2020. The level of life-cycle greenhouse gas
emissions per unit of energy reported in 2020 shall be no greater than 90% of the level
reported in 2010.

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Additional measures: bioenergy strategy
Brussels, 23.1.2008
COM(2008) 19 final

DIRECTIVE OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL
on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources
Article 3
Targets for the use of energy from renewable sources• ….
• 3. Each Member State shall ensure that the share of energy fromrenewable sources in transport in 2020 is at least 10% of final consumptionof energy in transport in that Member State.

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

On-going research activities at the JRC

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Well-to-Wheels analysis of future automotive
fuels and powertrains in the European context
A joint study by EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE
Objectives:• Establish, in a transparent and objective manner, a consensual well-towheels energy use and GHG emissions assessment of a wide range of
automotive fuels and powertrains relevant to Europe in 2010 andbeyond.
• Consider the viability of each fuel pathway and estimate the associatedmacro-economic costs.
• Have the outcome accepted as a reference by all relevant stakeholders.

Well-To-Wheels Analysis of different Fuel / Vehicle concepts (2010+)
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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

400

350

GHG g CO2eq/km

300

A shift from Fossil Fuels
towards Renewable
Fuels is Energy
Demanding

Crude Oil

250

Present Situation
200

Renewable Fuels
Bio-Diesel, Bio-Ethanol
Synthetic Bio-fuels (wood)
Hydrogen ex-Wind/ex-Bio

150

1005000100200300

400500600

Energy MJ/ 100km

700

800

9001000

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

€ spent/ tonne diesel
fossil fuelsubstituted
costof replacingor gasoline(€/tonne)

GHG Mitigation Costs - Biofuels

OIL PRICE 50
EUROs/barrel

900

WTW PROJECT

hydr
path ogenways•V1 published in 2003
•V3 expected Q1 2008

800

Compressedbiogas

700

Liquid fuels from wood:free-standing processes•V4 scheduled Q2 2010

600
500

High Policy Impact:

Ethanol from straw
Conventional biofuels inEU400•DG’s: TREN,ENV,AGRI
•IEA

300

•EEA

200

Liquid fuels fromwood: integrated inpaper mills

100•OECD•EU Parliament (STOA)

00100

200

300

400500€/t CO2eq. avoidedSource: JRC-IES/CONCAWE/EUCAR

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Well-to-Wheels analysis of future automotive
fuels and powertrains in the European context
A joint study by EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE
The study report is available on the WEB:

http://ies.jrc.ec.europa.eu/WTW
For questions / inquiries / requests / notes to the consortium,
please use the centralised mail address:

infoWTW@jrc.it

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Impact of ethanol content in gasoline on vehicle
emissions and fuel consumption
A joint study by EUCAR / JRC / CONCAWE
Objectives
1.

To define a sound and repeatable way of measuring the short-term direct
effect of fuels on regulated emissions and fuel consumption.

2.

To evaluate the impact of oxygenate, especially ethanol, on vehicle
emissions and fuel consumption

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Impact of ethanol content in gasoline on vehicle
emissions and fuel consumption
Fuel Matrix
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Base Fuel, 95 RON hydrocarbon-only fuelE10 Fuel, containing 10% v/v ethanol, matched in
VP and octane to Fuel 1
ETBE blend, 95 RON
E10 Fuel, containing 10% v/v ethanol but splash
blendedHydrocarbon-only fuel matching the octane ofFuel 4, the E10 splash-blended fuelE5, containing 5% v/v ethanol but splashblended.

Octane
(RVP)
54
6

1

3Oxygen2

JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Impact of ethanol content in gasoline on vehicle
emissions and fuel consumption
Test vehicles
The objective of this testing is to evaluate fuel effects on vehicles of current
technology, so that the results can be related to the existing vehicle parc
1.
2.
3.

A PFI engine that is insensitive to octane
A VVT vehicle to check the effect of throttling
A vehicle optimised for 98 RON in order to take advantage of a higher
octane number and the cooling effect of ethanol

Programme started in July 2008

28

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

PEMS and PAMS Activities
PEMS: Portable Emission Measurement Systems
PAMS: Portable Activity Measurement Systems

Objective: to collect data on real world emissions and fuel consumption as wellas on typical driving patterns to be used for future legislation development(e.g.: legislative driving cycle review)

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Portable Activity Monitoring Systems (PAMS) Flash memoryµcontroller(SD format)

K-line and CAN
interfaces

GPRS module
Executes a script for managing
all the wireless connection
workload

50 mm (1.96”)

112 mm (4.40”)

JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

PAMS31

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

LDV PEMS activity: test routes Test protocol for the exhaust gasmeasurements is the one developed for
HDVs

City

Rural
Highway

Characteristic of the test routes

Section

City

Rural

Highway

Distance [km]171335

Average speed[km/h]

1149

94

Average altitude
[m]

120

241

275

Averagetemperature[°C]

181011

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Integrated average emissions
NOx Emissions [g/km]

5.00
4.00
3.00

SCUDO
VW VAN

2.00
1.00
0.00

CITY

RURAL

HIGHWAY

CO2 Emissions [g/km]

450
400
350
300
250

SCUDO

200

VW VAN

150
100
500

CITY

RURAL

HIGHWAY

34JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Summary and Conclusions•The transport sector is one of the biggest and still growing sources of GHGemissions•Due to the increasing concerns for the consequences of the GHG
emissions, the European Commission has proposed a new strategy toincrease the fuel efficiency of vehicles•

The JRC is involved in many research activities in this field•

Thanks to its independency from any private and national interest, the JRC
can play a unique role in providing in support of the development of theEuropean policy to reduce GHG emissions from transport

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JRC - Tokyo, 31 July 2008

Thank you for your attention!