Policy Brief

June27,1, 2018
Sep2019

Va l é r i e N i q u e t i s s e n i o r
fellow at the Japan Instituteof Inter national Af fairs andhead of the Asia pr ogramat Foundation for Strategic
Research. She writes

Power balance: Japan’s Role in theIndo-Pacific under the constraints of
big powers priorities and unsolved
historical and territorial questions

extensively on Asia-Pacific

Valérie Niquet

strategic affairs and security.
Her latest book, La puissancechinoise en 100 questions,
Tallandier, has been publishedin 2017. You can follow her on
twitter @V.Niquet

Disclaimer :The views expressed in thispublication are those of the authorand do not necessarily reflect thepolicy or position of The Japan
Institute of International Affairs or
any other organization with which
the author is affiliated.

What is at stake today in the Indo-Pacific, is not only strategic
stability and territorial issues, but also the defence and support of aninternational order based on democratic values and multilateralism.
These values comprise respect for the rule of law, transparency,
particularly concerning defence policy, militar y budget, financial
institutions or ODA attribution policy, but also the denunciation of
the use of force or threat to use force to solve territorial or otherissues and of course the respect for global commons and freedom ofnavigation. In that respect, the evolution of the situation in the IndoPacific is of global interest, including for the European Union and its
member States.
These democratic values constitute the core of the liberalinternational order and are more broadly accepted as universal
norms, including in the Asia Pacific. Asean, for instance, a leading
player in the region, favours the signature of a code of conduct in
the South China sea based on these values in spite of the attachmentof its member States, to the principles of non-inter ference andsovereignty.
However, in spite of these positive evolutions, one cannot but
recognize the growing divide emerging in Asia between on one side
the PRC (People’s republic of China), and on the other side, almost
all the other actors in the region who do accept the principal ofinternational norms.
In that context, Japan plays a major role in implementing thesenorms as the favoured way to answer challenges to stability in theregion. One reason is a historical reason: Japan, and the Japanesepeople paid dearly for having forgotten the value of these norms
and, just like Germany in Europe, it gradually became after the war
a champion of a peaceful liberal international order. Since the 2000s,and even more since 2012, Japan has been trying to translate this1

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position into a more proactive role as a normal,legitimate, normative power.

In spite of its free riding economic policy
inside the framework of the WTO, that led tomassive trade tensions with the United States
and was also a factor behind the election of
Donald Trump, China is still a Leninist regime.
It did not achieve – yet – its political transition
and ideologically, in spite of its successes, theregime is increasingly insecure as demonstrated
with the Hong Kong crisis in 2019. In order tosurvive the threat of regime change – its main
objective in terms of security policy – it relies
since on an increasingly nationalist narrative
and a more assertive position concerning thedefence of its “rights,” particularly its “maritimerights,” leading to growing tensions with
its neighbours. In that context, the systemof liberal inter national order to deal withterritorial and strategic issues in the region isregularly denounced by the Chinese regime as“interference,” a threat to its own “sovereignty”
and “core interests.”

For the European Union and its member
States, the respect and defence of these norms
is a fundamental element. Of course, the IndoPacific region is geographically far away and thissometimes makes it more difficult for decision
makers in Europe to recognize the urgency andchallenges to strategic stability and the liberalorder in the region.
However, this region is of tremendous
importance to us and to the global order bothin economic and strategic terms. It has direct
influence on European’s countries security,
related to terrorism and on the migration factor
in politics.
It is also a region were challenges andtensions are on the rise, involving leading
economic powers. A region crossed by themost important sea lanes of communications,of interest to countries far beyond the region
itself; and a region where the respect andimplementation of a transparent system ofnorms in dealing with these challenges is oftremendous importance to the stability of theworld.
Since the end of the second world war, Japan
has been playing an increasing and today amajor role to propose and implement mutually
recognized and transparent norms in trade,investment, respect of intellectual proper tyrights, the environment or – of the utmost
importance today – the best way to deal in a
prudent, transparent but assured manner withmaritime and territorial tensions.

In other fields also, whereas Japan is playing
an important and leading role as a normative
power like transparency of the military budget,the environment, climate change issues,
financial institutions or development aid asdemonstrated at the G 20, G7 and TICAD 7
in 2019, the PRC tends to adopt a posture ofunilateralism and opacity.
The PRC has the ambition to impose astrongly hierarchical regional order, referring toa “pre modern” set of norms and concepts, likethe concept of “harmony” or “tian xia 天下 ” anda glorified promotion of the former tributar ysystem.
To counter the re-emergence of Japan –a successful and dynamic democracy whose
attractive power remains high – a legitimate
normative power on the international scene,
China needs to build a counter-narrative todelegitimise Japan’s role. Therefore, Japan’s
more proactive role in security matters, globally
welcomed by its neighbours, has often beendenounced by Beijing as neo-militarism. Tokyois accused of trying to “topple the world order

The position of Japan in the region however,and the more proactive role Tokyo could play,including in terms of norms prescription, hasbeen challenged by a tensed strategic situation
whose main characteristic is the emergenceof a more asser tive Chinese regime who, in
spite of its pragmatism, can choose to turn on
or off the heat on relations with its neighbours,
particularly Japan.

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issued from the second world war” and, as anally of the United States, of supporting the “oldobsolete alliances system inherited from thecold war”.

All these elements are important challenges
that Japan has to face, that would also weighon the level of acceptance of any constitutionalchange as envisioned by Premier Minister Abe
and his cabinet. In spite of these challenges,
Japan’s status as a legitimate normative poweris more broadly accepted today than at any timein history, including in its own region, with theexception of course of the PRC and the Korean
peninsula.

One understands the necessity for Japan,
just as for any other former colonial powers,
to work on its past histor y, in order to build
better trust with its former colonies or occupied
territories, the best way to be fully accepted
as a legitimate power in the region and todiffuse the PRC’s strategy of de legitimisation.
However, Japan’s par tners, par ticularly inEurope less immediately involved in thestrategic tensions in the region, must also
recognize that “History” and “historical issues”
are essentially used as an instrument of control
and domination by the Chinese regime and not
as an element of dialogue and trust building.
This is also the case in Korea, when the policy
is divided, the economy stagnant and the risk ofmarginalization between China and the UnitedStates on the issue of North Korea is high, as isthe case in 2018-2019.

One can find two major reasons to thisevolution. On the one hand, thanks to thedemocratization momentum in Asia since theend of the 1980s, Japan, as a democracy, isless an “alien” exception: Japan can be both
democratic AND fully part of Asia. On the otherhand, the more aggressive foreign strategy
followed by the Chinese regime since 2008 –based on the over confidence of the Chinese
regime after the financial crisis – is the sourceof growing uneasiness in Asia, and led to anembr yo and informal coalition of countriesembracing the same nor ms, par ticularly
in inter national behaviour. Moreover, thiscommunity of values extend far beyond
the region and could also contribute to thelegitimacy of Japan as a normative power on theglobal scene.

On this issue, however, European countries
should be best placed to understand thesituation between Japan and the PRC, but also
between Japan and the Republic of Korea. The
example of France-Germany, often cited, is not
the best one. But rather the example of thereconciliation between Russia and Germany,
which could happen only after the politicaltransition in the Soviet Union – whateverimper fect – and the fall of a regime whoselegitimacy – just like in the PRC –, was based on
the constant reference to the “great patriotic war
against fascism.” Another pertinent example isthe still difficult relations between France andits former colonies, particularly with Algeria inspite of the fact that, in recent years, France has
been stressing the necessity to “repent” in its
own historical narrative and history textbooks.

1This is in this context, both difficult and fullof opportunities that Japan has the responsibility
to engage and play an important and positive
normative role, both at the regional and globallevel. This is no time for the temptation ofinsularity and “comfort.”1 In order for this tosucceed, Japan has the support of other powers
engaged in the region spanning two oceansfrom Africa and the Indian Ocean to the Pacific.
France, in Europe, has been particularly active
in suppor ting this new role and cooperation
with Japan. At the same time, China, confronted
with grave tensions with the US and politicalchallenges at home, has chosen a strategy ofappeasement with Tokyo. This of course, isHDP Envall, «What Kind of Japan : Tokyo Strategic Options on a Contested Asia», Survival , August-September 2019.

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appealing for a Japanese economy also ver ydependent on trade, that react positively to
China’s appeasement strategy. However, if thesearch for stabilization is understandable, thestakes are higher and a true globalized andconsistent strategic vision, based on realism
and balance, can only serve the best long terminterests of Japan both in its region and beyond.

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