中国の半導体設備投資に関する展望
Shanshan Du
Senior Analyst
SEMI China
June 2018

Outline• 2018 Outlook and Drivers• Fab Investment Outlook– Record spending• The Surge of China– New fab projects– Capacity projection– Memory and Foundry• Summary2018 Outlook and Drivers

3半導体業界の見通し
2017 soars past $400 billion

Source: SIA/WSTS historical year end reports, WSTS 2018 Forecast

2018 半導体予測

業界動向と成長ドライバー• Numerous Applications Driving Growth Through 2025
Applications

Largest Growth Products in 2017

StorageMemory(DRAM due to strong pricing)

Industrial
WirelessLong Term Forecast to 2025Sensors
Opto ElectronicsAutomotive

Analog Devices

ConsumerDiscretes

IoT *$16B -> $62B

Automotive*$32B -> $51B

5G **

$0B -> $20B

AR/VR***$4B -> $131B

AI***$5B -> $50B

• Robust volume shipments and higher ASPs for Memory are driving strong 2017 revenue growth.
• Storage, industrial, wireless, and automotive applications also contributing to strong 2017 growth.
• Connectivity, data centers, communications, automotive, and advanced software spurs strong demand through 2025.
* Semiconductor value** Network/Devices*** Market Size

Source: SEMI Industry Strategy Symposium, 2017

Copyright © 2017 SEMI®. All Rights Reserved

Virtual Reality (VR)Augmented Reality (AR)AI Artificial Intelligence (AI)Global Fab Investment Outlook

72017年に４０％増加

設備投資
Growth is likely to continue beyond this year

ChinaSamsung

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, March 2018

製品タイプ別設備投資
Led by Memory and Foundry

製品タイプ別容量推移
3D NAND, DRAM, Foundry and MEMS add more new capacity
Type2018

2019

3D NAND

46%

20%

DRAM

5.5%

5.7%

MEMS

7.8%

3.8%

Foundry

5.4%

3.5%

Analog &Power

4.1%

3%

Logic &MPU

4.5%

3%

China Investment

12

中国国内 IC 産業
Undergoing Dramatic Growth•

Total revenue reached $83.1B•YtY growth rate is 27%

Source: CSIA, SEMI China, April 2018

地域別製造装置の支出
China to become Top 2 Spender in 2018/2019

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, December 2017

新規工場設置計画 – 中国市場がリード• 19 new fab projects inChina from 2017 on• Out of 10 upcoming
300mm projects in China,
Majority (7) are fromChina-owned entities

中国ファブ投資が急増 – ファウンドリー & メモリーがリード
Key Spending Projects
2017$USD (Million)••••

Intel Fab 68 - upgrade to 3D NAND
SK Hynix C2
UMC Fab 12X
SMIC B2?

2018
•
••••
•

Intel Fab 68 Phase 2
Yangtze Memory Technology (Wuhan)
TSMC Nanjing Phase 1
Globalfoundries Chengdu Fab 11
Hua Li Micro Fab 2
Fujian Jin Hua - DRAM

2019/2020

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, December 2017

• Tsinghua Unigroup (Nanjing) andSamsung Xian phase 2• SK Hynix C3• SMIC new Shanghai fab• Hefei Chang Xin Memory16

中国の生産能力のシェア増加
Strong growth from 2016 to 2020
8” WPM (Thousand)Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and issubject to change depending on actual execution.

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, December 2017

中国の生産能力の推移
Foundry, Memory and Discrete (LED) Fuel the Growth
8” WPM (Thousand)Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and is subject tochange depending on actual execution.

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, December 2017

中国のメモリー容量
3D NAND showing stronger momentum

Disclaimer: The forecast is based on current announcement and is subject tochange depending on actual execution.

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast, December 2017

China Momentum and Challenges
MomentumThe surge of China investment is both policy-driven and marketdriven.
Policies such as the National IC promotion Guidelines (2014) as wellas the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020) are the key drivers of the newfab projects blossoms across the country.
Majority of these new fab projects are supported or “invested” by
National IC fund and various local government funds.
The huge demand and rising Chinese electronics OEMs also play
an important role in attracting foreign semiconductor companies to
set up facilities in China.

China Momentum and Challenges
Challenges
There is no shortage of capital for semiconductor fab projects inChina. Though some local government funds are not really ready yet.
Two major limiting factors are the availability of talent and the sourcesof technologies/IP.
Talent sourcing is happening across Asia especially from Korea,Taiwan and Japan.
However, talent recruiting raises some concerns about IP
infringement especially in memory.
The concerns of adding massive capacity in certain productcategories may trigger oversupply in the long run.
China faces regulatory challenges to successfully complete outboundM&A in tech sectors.

Summary22

Summary
Fab Investment• Record spending in 2017 and 2018• 3D NAND, DRAM, Foundry and China investments are keydrivers to spending
The Surge of China• 19 new projects planned from 2017 onwards.
• China is forecasted to become the largest capital equipment
market in 2019
• Investment in foundry and memory segments are paving the way
for China’s place on the global semiconductor stage.

POLICIES – ECOSYSTEM – INVESTMENTS - CAPACITIES• New Expanded Edition Coming in
September, 2018
• Segmented Market Details• Supply Chain Database• Forward Analysis with• Opportunities and Challenges

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