Comprehensive Assessment of
Climate Change Risks for Local Livelihoods
and Challenges of Adaptation
地域生活への気候変動リスクの総合的評価と適応への課題

Kiyo KURISU (Assoc. Prof.)
Dept. Urban Engineering,
The University of Tokyo

1

2

Risk is determined byHazard

ハザード

Exposure

曝露

Vulnerability

脆弱性Example

Ultraviolet rays (UV)

3

Intensity of UV
紫外線の強さAbility to takemeasures
対策をとれる能力

Amount of UV
exposure
紫外線を浴びる量

Ease ofturning red
赤くなりやすさClimate change

4

Climate change
気候変動影響Climate change
impact

適応能力：対策をとれる能力

Adaptation
ability
曝露量：影響を受ける量

Amount ofexposure

1,741 Local
Municipalities
In Japan感受性：影響の受けやすさ

Sensitivity

Climate change risk for agriculture
Climate changeimpact

5

Yield change 収率変化

Amount ofexposure

Amount of production 生産量（額）Sensitivity

Dependency on the crop

Adaptation
ability

Ease of change 対策の容易さ

当該作物への依存度

Screening of high risk municipalities6(1 – Yield change) × (Dependency)(1ー収率変化）×（当該作物への依拠度）

High risk

Low risk

Climate change risk for agriculture

7
Neighboring municipalities
within the same prefecture
同一県内の隣り合う市町村

BInterviews to the stakeholders 利害関係者へのｲﾝﾀﾋﾞｭｰ
Prefecture 県City 市
Japan agricultural cooperatives 農協
Fruit tree experiment station 果樹試験場

AClimate change risk for agriculture

8 Climate change impacts are multilayered 気候変動の影響は多層的収率変化

Loss of fruit trees due to disasters
Prefecture(landslides, etc.)
Increase in heatstroke
Yield decline
among farmers
Aging of farmers, Lack of successor
Population decline, Aging society

Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA)

災害（土砂災害等）による果樹の損失
農業従事者の熱中症の増加
City A
農業従事者の高齢化, 後継者不足
人口減少, 高齢化社会

Fruit Tree Experiment Station

Screening of high risk municipalities
Climate change

Temperature change

Climatechange impact

Infectious disease risk change

Sensitivity[2076-2095] ー [1980-1999]

Rice yield changeClimate[2076-2095] / [1980-1999]

change impact

per population
per population(Z score)per capita

Non-fireproof wooden
house ratio

Adaptation
ability[2076-2095] / [1980-1999]

Standardization
Elderly Pop. ratio
Infant ratio
Agricultural production

Producer-age pop.
per population

9

Climate change
Precipitation change[2076-2095] / [1980-1999]

標準化(Z得点化）

Risk score

Rice quality change[2076-2095] ー [1980-1999]

Presence of family members
livingwith elderly people
Sensitivity
per population

Farmers ratio
per population

Fishermen ratio
per population

Ambulance
arrival time

Population
density

Recent population
changeAdaptation
Familyability
incomeForest ratio

Tax revenue

per population

Screening of high risk municipalities

10High risk

Low risk

11

Risk evaluation is just relative comparison
リスク評価（スコア）は相対比較にすぎない

The purpose is screening the high-risk municipalities
目的は高リスクの自治体をスクリーニングするところにある

Selection of indicators and weighting is still in trial stage
指標の選定や重みづけなどはまだ検討途中である

関連研究をポスターでも発表しています

12今井 葉子（研究員）◆

Regional Vulnerability Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture in Japan

白井 浩介（D3）◆ Climate change impact on quality of life in local municipalities in Japan竹中 颯太郎（M2）◆Evaluation of Climate-change Adaptation Measures from the Perspective of Co-benefits with Mitigation- Case Study of Logging Trees in River Channel –◆エキスパートインタビューによる気候変動適応推進のための論点整理

井田 新（M1）◆

全国自治体におけるハザード・曝露・脆弱性から見た気候変動へのリスクの評価