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Intended Learning Objectives

Integrating Climate Change
Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies:
Lessons from IPCC AR6 cycle

1.

Gain a clear understanding of what climate change adaptation and mitigation entail,including definitions, examples, and their respective importance today and in the future.

2. Comprehend the rationale behind integrating adaptation and mitigation strategies, including
the potential synergies, benefits, and challenges associated with such an integrated

JOANA PORTUGAL PEREIRA

approach.
3. Understand key findings and lessons from the IPCC AR6 cycle and foreseen developments

Professor, Instituto Superior Técnico, Ulisboa (IST/ULisboa)
Professor, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (PPE-COPPE-UFRJ)
Lead Author of IPCC WG III AR6, UNEP EGR 2020-2024 & GEO7

in AR7 regarding effective adaptation and mitigation strategies and their integration.
4. Formulate actionable policy recommendations and strategies for integrating adaptation andSeminar for the S18 project, The University of Tokyo I 05/08/2024

mitigation efforts, considering the barriers and enabling factors highlighted in the IPCC AR6cycle.

Overview

PART I: FOUNDATIONSAND CONTEXTPART II: INSIGHTS ANDLESSONS FROM AR6PART III: APPLICATIONSAND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

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Source: <a href="https://www.flaticon.com/free-stickers/scientist" title="scientiststickers">Scientist stickers created by Stickers - Flaticon</a>2

Source: <a href="https://www.flaticon.com/free-stickers/scientist" title="scientiststickers">Scientist stickers created by Stickers - Flaticon</a>1PART I: FOUNDATIONSAND CONTEXTPART II: INSIGHTS ANDLESSONS FROM AR6PART III: APPLICATIONSAND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

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IPCC: bridging the gap between scienceand decision making

The Sixth assessment report (AR6) products• Created in 1988 by WMO and UNEP
• UN body with 195 country members• International organisation devoted to assist governments
developing science-based policies on climate change• Mission: inform decision makers about scientific literature
relevant to understand impacts and risks of anthropogenic
climate change and options to design adaptation andmitigation strategies• Headquarters in Switzerland (Geneva) and Working Groupdelegations in Global South and North hemisphere countries• Sixth Assessment Report (AR7) ➔ 07/2023-2028-29• Policy relevant, but not policy prescriptive• Assessment of literature ➔ no original research

5Overview

Contributing Author

Scientific Editor &Contributing Author

Lead Author & Coordinating
Lead Author61

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The scope of the Special Report on Climate Change and Cities
places a particular emphasis on climate vulnerability andadaptation.

The Seventh assessment report (AR7) products (20232029)

Chapter 1: Cities in the context of climate change: framing ofthe report• Working Group Reports

Context-specific adaptation and disaster risk reduction options for urbanareas.

•City actions across mitigation and adaptation, and responses to L&D.

Urban areas as hotspots for climate impacts, and key players inclimate action.

•

Use of urban observation and modelling tools for monitoring and evaluation.

•Local risk assessments incorporating scientific ILK•

Special attention to marginalized groups, gender equity, andjustice in the context of urban climate impacts.

•

Integration of mitigation and adaptation into SD and JT.

••

Methodologies for assessing impacts using diverse knowledge
systems, including Indigenous Knowledge.

Case studies showcasing climate-resilient development, adaptation, andlow-carbon development.

•• Synthesis report• Special Reports

Recognition of the diversity of development status of cities,
highlighting their vulnerabilities and capacities for resilience.

Chapter 2: Cities in a changing climate: trends, challenges andopportunities

o Climate Change and Cities (WG II)o Short-Lived Climate Forcers (WG I)•o CDRs (TFI)
o Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate
Change Impacts and Adaptation (WG II)

Examination of past, current, and future climate trends and theirimpacts on urban areas.

•New planning methods under uncertainty and the likelihood of tipping points.

•Innovations in governance, urban planning, technology, and finance tosupport adaptation.

•Inclusive multi-level governance and the role of ILK

Urbanisation trends and their influence on vulnerability andresilience to climate impacts.

•Adaptation solutions and case studies differentiated by city characteristics.

•Specific urban risks such as SLR, extreme weather events, andtheir attribution.

••

Importance of adaptation and resilience-building, including
planned and unplanned relocation.

Factors considered include geographical location, development stage,
informality, climate projections, climatic impact-drivers, and sectoral
contributions to the economy.

•Focus on migration, urbanization trends, fragility, conflict situations, andinclusiveness in adaptation planning.

•The role of data and tools in urban climate risks.

•

Importance of early warning systems, governance, and climate finance insupporting urban adaptation.

Source: IPCC P61 2024.

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Chapter 4: How to facilitate and accelerate change

Chapter 5: Solutions by city types and regions•• Methodology reports

Chapter 3: Actions and solutions to reduce urban risks and emissions••o Working Group I will focus on the physicalscience basis of climate change.
o Working Group II will address impacts,adaptation, and vulnerability.
o Working Group III will cover the mitigation ofclimate change.

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HOLISTIC APPROACH: COMBINING
ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION CREATESA COMPREHENSIVE CLIMATE STRATEGY.

SYNERGIES: INTEGRATED ACTIONS CANPROVIDE MULTIPLE FINANCING
BENEFITS AND EFFICIENCIES.

Source: <a href="https://www.flaticon.com/free-stickers/scientist" title="scientiststickers">Scientist stickers created by Stickers - Flaticon</a>

Understanding Adaptation and MitigationPOLICY AND PLANNING: ENSURESCOHERENT AND COHESIVE CLIMATEACTION ACROSS SECTORS.

Overview

PART I: FOUNDATIONSAND CONTEXTPART II: INSIGHTS ANDLESSONS FROM AR6PART III: APPLICATIONSAND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

910

The physical impacts attributed to climate change are alreadyaffecting all inhabited regions of the planet.

The physical impacts attributed to climate change are alreadyaffecting all inhabited regions of the planet.
EAST ASIA (EAS)11

Source: IPCC WG I AR6 2021.

Source: IPCC WG I AR6 2021.

Mean air temperature
Projections: High confidence of increase
Past trends: Upward trend without attribution
Extreme heat
Projections: High confidence of 3x↑ increase
Past trends: Upward trend with high confidence ofattribution
Agricultural and ecological drought
Projections: High confidence of +20% increase
Past trends: Upward trend with medium
confidence of attribution
Fire weather
Projections: High confidence of increase122

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We face unavoidable multiple climate hazards over the next two
decades with global warming above 1.5°C, but how these willaffect nature and people depends on how we adapt.
However, the risks tonature and people depend
more on theirvulnerability and exposure
to climate hazards than tothe level of warming.
Source: IPCC 2021

The increase in the frequency and intensity of
extreme heat waves, changes in precipitation
patterns, and the occurrence/intensity of droughts
increase in higher global warming levels.

Source: IPCC 2022

Every degree Celsius makes
all the difference inreducing climate impacts.

Even temporarily
exceeding 1.5°C warming
will result in additional
severe impacts, some ofwhich will be irreversible.

1315Action on adaptation has increased but progress is uneven and weare not adapting fast enough.

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Source: IPCC 2022;

One of the best ways toadaptate is to reduce GHG
emissions immediatly.
Source: IPCC 2022; UNEP 2023.

o > 170 countries and many cities including adaptation in their climate policies andplanning.
o Pilot projects and local experiments are being implemented in different sectors.
o Investments in adaptation are expected to reduce risks and damages as well as
generate multiple benefits including improved productivity, innovation, health andwellbeing, food security, livelihoods, and biodiversity conservation.
o Adaptation finance needs of developing countries are 10-18x as big as international
public finance flows.
o At the current rate of planning and implementation, the adaptation gap will continue
to grow.
o Costs of adaptation in developing countries are estimated at US$215 billion/yr thisdecade. The adaptation finance needed to implement domestic adaptation priorities
is estimated at US$387 billion/yr.

There are feasible
and effective
options to reduce
the risks to people
and nature, but
their effectivenessdecreases withincreasingwarming.

17Since CO2 is a cumulative gas and stays virtually forever in theatmosphere, every additional tonne of emissions adds toglobal warming and impacts.
1.5°C(67% prob)

150

PRE-PARIS BASELINE ~5.0C
CURRENT POLICIES ~2.8C2°C(67% prob)

1.7°C(67% prob)

AMBITION GAPPARIS AGREEMENT WB2C
2C

900

450

IMPLEMENTATION GAPPARIS PLEDGES ~2.4-2.6C

NET ZERO EMISSIONS
1,5C

GtCO2
Source: Forster et al. 2024

18Source: UNEP 2022.

Current policies and Paris
pledges will take us to warminglevels above science-sound zone.
193

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Source: https://climateactiontracker.org/global/cat-net-zero-target-evaluations/Long-term
strategies (LTS)

Credibility Gap• 140 countries have announced net
zero targets, equivalent to 88% of
global GHG emissionso Are announced pledge targets
legally binding?
o Is there a credible policy plan
guiding its implementation?
o Are the country’s near-term
policies already put emissions
on a downward path over thenext decade?

• Not mandatory under the ParisAgreement• Most of the long-term goals refer toclimate neutrality, carbon neutrality,
GHG neutrality or net zero emissions
by 2050, 2060 or mid-century• Lack of transparency and globalscope

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A new generation of scenarios

WG III AR6 Illustrative Pathways

was introduced in AR6
Low carbon pathways underline threestages:
1)

Year of peak of emissions

2)

Year of carbon neutrality (declinerate after the peak)3)
Paris aligned

Ammount of carbon dioxide
removal (CDR) strategies

Paris Agreement aligned-pathways

Source: EEA 2017.

Source: IPCC WG III AR6 2022; IPCC WG III Scenario database: https://data.ece.iiasa.ac.at/ar6/.

2324

Increasing mitigation ambitons

Source: IPCCWG IIIAR6 Ch3MCODSI Profa.
Joana2022.
Portugal Pereira

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Source: Slide bored from van Duuren, 2024.

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Bioenergy and land-based CDR strategies are effective options to support
NZE targets, but there are conflicts with land use ecosystem services.

Bioenergy and land-based CDR strategies are effective options to support
NZE targets, but there are conflicts with land use ecosystem services.

• Different storylines imply different land uses to achieve 1.5°C global warming level by
2100.

• Different storylines imply different land uses to achieve 1.5°C global warming level by
2100.
Delayed mitigation actions andhigh consumption patterns,
imply higher needs for landbased CDR options, which may
cause land use competition forother land uses. Bioenergy andforestry area ~9.8Mkm2 (27xsize of Japan)

Early mitigation actions andsustainable land management
practices may increase crop
productive and induce
sustainable intensification ofpastures.
Required land in 2050 for forestand bioenergy may reach
5.5Mkm2 (14x Size of Japan)

Source: IPCC SRCCL SPM 2019.

Source: <a href="https://www.flaticon.com/free-stickers/scientist" title="scientiststickers">Scientist stickers created by Stickers - Flaticon</a>27

Source: IPCC SRCCL SPM 2019.

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Case studies of integrated approaches: climate
impacts threads to Brazilian food security

Overview

PART I: FOUNDATIONSAND CONTEXTPART II: INSIGHTS ANDLESSONS FROM AR6PART III: APPLICATIONSAND FUTURE DIRECTIONS

Source: Fiorini et al., 2024. How climate change is impacting the Brazilian agricultural sector: evidence
from a systematic literature review. Env. Res. Letter, 19-8, 083001. DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5f42.

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Case studies of integrated approaches:climate impacts on nuclear energy
Operational Challenges:•Challenges posed by projected hazards to the safe andefficient operation of nuclear plants.
Specific Risks to Water-Cooling Systems:•Reduced efficiency of water-cooling systems.
•Clogging due to biological contamination of waterstreams.
•Water access issues during droughts.
Disruptions from Extreme Weather:•Disruptions caused by extreme storms.
•Coastal SLR impacting nuclear facilities.
Importance of Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies:•Need for appropriate adaptation strategies that include
enhanced safety measures.
•Planning and design considerations for new nuclearfacilities.
Source: Portugal-Pereira J., Esteban M. K. Araújo, 2024. Exposure of future nuclear energy infrastructure•Incorporating specific climate risks into mitigation
to climate change hazards: A review assessment, Energy Strategy Reviews 53, 101365,
scenarios.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2024.101365.

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Case studies of integrated approaches: climate
impacts on IAM mitigation pathways in Brazil

North
Northeast
Centre-west

Productivity

Nutrition

SoutheastAreaSouth

Source: Angelkorte et al, (under prep)325

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Tools and strategies for effective
integration based on AR6 findings

Challenges, solutions, and future directions
Barriers to integration and potential solutions:• Policy Fragmentation: Overcome fragmentation by developing cohesive policies that address both adaptation and mitigation.

o Climate Risk Assessments: Use climate risk assessments to inform both• Funding Limitations: Address funding challenges through innovative financing mechanisms and prioritisation of climate investments.

adaptation and mitigation strategies.

• Data Gaps: Improve data availability at regional levels and quality to support integrated planning.

o Decision-Support Tools: Implement decision-support tools that incorporate• Institutional Silos: Break down institutional silos by fostering inter-scientific communities' collaboration.
Emerging trends and areas for future research and development:

both adaptation and mitigation considerations.

• Nature-Based Solutions: Explore the potential of nature-based solutions to provide both adaptation and mitigation benefits.

o Integrated Planning Frameworks: Develop integrated planning frameworks• Technological Innovations: Investigate novel and land-based CDR to evaluate potential synergies and trade-offs between adaptationthat address climate risks and opportunities across sectors.

and mitigation efforts.

o Capacity Building: Invest in training and resources to enhance the capacity• Integrated Modelling: Develop new narratives and parameterisation of scenarios to incorporate climate impacts into long-term mitigation
pathways.

of policymakers and practitioners to integrate adaptation and mitigation.

• Social Dimensions: Research the social dimensions of climate change, including equity and justice, to ensure that integration strategies
are inclusive and effective.

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6 Take-away
messages

1. IPCC is the only global international body devoted to climate science- IPCC aims to provide comprehensive assessments of climate science.
- Aspires to inform global policy through robust scientific findings.
2. Announced and current climate actions are Not enough- Existing efforts fall short of limiting global temperature rise.
- Urgent need for enhanced and coordinated mitigation and adaptation
strategies.
3. Mitigation pathways to fulfil the Paris temperature goal are challenging- Achieving the Paris Agreement's temperature goals is highly demanding.
- Requires substantial changes in energy, land use, and societal practices.
4. Integration of both adaptation and mitigation enhances effectiveness ofresponses:- - Integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies offers a morecomprehensive approach to addressing climate challenges and avoids
maladaptation.
5. Overcome Barriers to Integration:
Addressing barriers such as policy fragmentation, funding limitations, data gaps
and scientific silos is essential for successful integration.

Bedsidereading

6. Future Research and Development are Vital:
Ongoing research and development, particularly in areas like nature-based
solutions and CDRs, are critical for advancing integrated climate strategies andimproving resilience in the face of a changing climate.

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o Rogelj J., Fransen T., den Elzen M.G.J., Lamboll R.D., Schumer C., Kuramochi T., Hans F.,
Mooldijk S., J. Portugal-Pereira, 2023. Credibility gap in net-zero climate targets leaves
world at high risk. Science 380(6649), 1014-1016. DOI: 10.1126/science.adg6248
o Afonso, F., Sohst, M., Diogo, C.M.A., Rodrigues, S.S., Ferreira, A., Ribeiro, I., Marques, R.,Rego, F.F.C., Sohouli, A., Portugal-Pereira, J., Policarpo, H., Soares, B., Ferreira, B.,
Fernandes, E.C., Lau, F., A. Suleman. 2023. Strategies towards a more sustainableaviation: A systematic review, Progress in Aerospace Sciences 137, 100878.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.paerosci.2022.100878
o Fiorini A.C., Angelkorte, G., Maia, P., Bergman-Fonte, C., Vicente, C., Morais, T., Carvalho,L., Zanon-Zotin, M., Szklo, A., Schaeffer, R., J. Portugal-Pereira. 2023. Sustainable aviation
fuels must control induced land use change: an integrated assessment modelling
exercise for Brazil, Environmental Research Letters 18 014036.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acaee1
o Gibson, MF, Slade, R, Portugal-Pereira J., Rogelj, J. 2022. Agent-Based Modelling ofFuture Dairy and Plant-Based Milk Consumption for UK Climate Targets. Journal ofArtificial Societies and Social Simulation, 24(3), 1-9. Doi: 10.18564/jasss.4637.
o Carvalho, F., Muller-Casseres, E., Portugal-Pereira, J., Junginger, M., A. Szklo. 2023.
Lignocellulosic biofuels use in the international shipping: The case of soybean trade from
Brazil and the U.S. to China. Cleaner Production Letters 4, 100028.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clpl.2023.100028
o Winkler, H., Lecocq, F., Lofgren H., Vilariño, M.V., Kartha, S., J. Portugal-Pereira. 2022.
Examples of shifting development pathways: lessons on how to enable broader, deeper,and Climate Action 1, 27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s44168-022-00026-1
o Muller-Casseres, E., Szklo, A., Fonte, C., Carvalho, F., Portugal-Pereira, J., Baptista, L.B.,
Maia, P., Rochedo, P.R.R., Draeger, R., R. Schaeffer. 2022. Are there synergies in thedecarbonization of aviation and shipping? An integrated perspective for the case ofBrazil. Journal of iScience 25,10, 105248. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.105248

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どうもありがとうございます!
JOANA PORTUGAL PEREIRA
Professor, Instituto Superior Técnico, Ulisboa (IST/ULisboa)
Professor, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (PPE-COPPE-UFRJ)
Lead Author of IPCC WG III AR6, UNEP EGR 2020-2024 & GEO7
joana.portugal@tecnico.ulisboa.pt, joana.portugal@ppe.ufrj.br@joanna_portugal

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