Simulation analysis of End-of-Life Vehicle system in China refers
to the advanced experience of Japan
Tsukuba University Feng Zhu*
Tsukuba University Yoshiro Higano
Tsukuba University Takeshi Mizunoya
Tsukuba University Helmut Yabar

1. Introduction
1.1 Background and current situation
With the rapid growth in economy, China’s production of vehicles had reached to 13.79
million in 2009 [1], and China became the first in automotive production in the world. As aresult, the number of End-of-Life Vehicles (ELVs) has increased annually as well. Fig. 1shows the inventory and growth rate of Civil Vehicles and the amount of ELVs in China from2000 to 2011. [2] The total amount of Civil Vehicles in 2011 is about 5 times than it in 2000,
and the amount of ELVs is about 3.5% of the inventory of Civil Vehicles each year.
30.00%

80

25.00%
20.00%

60

15.00%
40

10.00%

20

5.00%

0

Growth Rate

Million Units

1000.00%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Amount of Civil Vehicles

Amount of ELVs

Growth Rate of Civil Vehicles

Fig.1 Inventory of civil vehicles and amount of ELVs
Fig. 2 shows the ELV recycling system in China. [3] Expect for some ELVs which are soldillegally to poor areas as secondhand vehicles, the ELVs would be dismantled and sent forshredding, and the recyclable materials (mainly metals) are available after separation which isabout 75%-85% of ELV by weight. And the remaining 25%-15% fraction which is called
Auto Shredder Residue (ASR) also generates after separation. The treatment of ASR is still
landfill in China.
1.2 Objective of the study
This study discusses the current ELV recycling system in China and considers the ELV
recycling industry as a new industry. With the consideration of materials recycling and GHG(Greenhouse Gas) emission reduction, construct a comprehensive evaluation model to findsustainable development and environmental friendly solutions to maximize the GDP andminimize the environmental impacts (GHG emission) through simulation analysis.
Illegal sale

Vehicle owners
New vehicle owners

ELVs

Collection agents

Remanufacturedand reused

Dismantling
facilities

Shredding andsorting facilities

Sell to secondhand
marketVehiclesSecondhand vehicleowners

AutoShredder
Residue(ASR)

Landfill

Recyclable materials(Steel/Iron/Aluminum)

VehiclesRemoval of
Air bags/Batteries/Tires/Fluorocarbon/
Vehicle fluids

Last owners

Metal recycling
facilities

Fig. 2 ELV recycling system in China
1.3 Method of the study
In this research, the Extended I-O Table would be constructed to analyze the relationshipbetween usual industry, automobile manufacture industry, metal smelting and processing
industry, energy industry and ELV recycling industry, focusing on the commodity flowbalance and energy flow balance. And then find optimal solutions for recycling tax andsubsidy policy of End-of-Life Vehicle recycling industry by simulation.

2. Simulation Modeling
2.1 Classification of industries
In this study, the ELV recycling industry as a new industry would be introduced into theextended Input-Output table. And other industries would be classified into 4 parts: automobile
manufacture industry which produces vehicles; energy industry which provide energy such as
electricity and petroleum for other industries, government and household consumption; metalsmelting and processing industry which produces the metal materials with raw materials andsecondary materials recovered from the ELV; and usual industry consists of other remainingindustries. So all the activities among industries could be described by these 5 sectors and theimpacts of adding the new industry would be clear after analyzing the extended I-O table.
2.2 Framework
Fig. 3 shows the framework of this study. Vehicles as the products of automobile manufactureindustry would satisfy the intermediate demand of other industries and the final demand ofgovernment and household consumption. After the used vehicles become ELVs, the ELVs arerecovered and sent to ELV recycling industry for dismantling, shredding and sorting processes.
Then the recyclable metal materials are used for remelting and producing the secondary

materials which could be utilized by automobile manufacture industry again and otherindustries as well.
Overseas

GHG
emission

GHG
emission

Import & Export

Final Demand

Usual industry

Intermediate
input

Automobile
manufactureindustry

Intermediate
input

Energy industry

Intermediate
input

Metal smeltingand processing
industry

Intermediate
input

ELV recycling
industry

Commodity & Service Flow

Consumption
Recycling tax

Government

Subsidy

Recycling tax

Household

Recycling Tax & Subsidy FlowEnergy Flow

Fig. 3 Framework of model
The energy industry supplies the energy to meet with the intermediate demand and final
demand. In this model the total supply of energy should no less than the total demand. And
the generation of Greenhouse Gas mainly due to the consumption of energy.
And in this study, recycling tax will be introduced as a source of subsidy for material
recycling. Government levy taxes from the producers and consumers and give subsidy to theELV recycling industry.
2.3 GHG emission saving with material recycling
This study considers not only the material recycling but also the GHG emission reduction as
the environmental impacts.
Table 1 shows the Greenhouse Gas emission factors for steel and aluminum production. [4] Itis obvious that secondary metals emit much less GHG per unit for production.
Table 1 Greenhouse Gas emission factors for steel and aluminum production
MetalsPrimary steel
Primary high-strength steel
Secondary steel
Primary cast Al
Secondary AlEmission factors
2.2 kg CO2-eq/kg steel
2.8 kg CO2-eq/kg steel
0.7 kg CO2-eq/kg steel
9.72 kg CO2-eq/kg Al
1.18 kg CO2-eq/kg Al

Note: CO2-eq: Carbon dioxide equivalent is a measure for describing the climate-forcing strength of aquantity of greenhouse gases using the functionally equivalent amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) as thereference.

So it would be effective to reduce the GHG emission using the secondary metals instead of
the primary metals. Since the amount of GHG emission is related with the amount of energy
consumption, it means that produce the metals with the scrap metals instead of the raw
materials would also save a huge amount of energy.

3. Future ResearchIn this research, the extended I-O table is constructed and the ELV recycling industry as a newindustry is introduced into the model. This study only considers of the commodity flowbalance and energy flow balance in the model and the value flow balance has not been
considered yet. So in the future research, the value flow balance would be added into themodel to make a comprehensive evaluation of the environmental and economic effects ofintroducing the new industry. On the other hand, the treatment of auto shredder residue (ASR)
is still landfill in China, so the ASR treatment would be considered to improve the ELV
recycling system in China.

Reference[1] Qinghua Zhao and Ming Chen, "A comparison of ELV recycling system in China and Japan and China's
strategies," Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 57, pp. 15-21, 2011.
[2] China Statistical Yearbook, 2013.
[3] Hiroki Hatayama, Ichiro Daigob and Kiyotaka Tahara, "Tracking effective measures for closed-loop
recycling of automobile steel in China," Resources, Conservation and Recycling, vol. 87, pp. 65-71,
2014.
[4] Hyung-Ju Kim, Colin McMillan, Gregory A. Keoleian and Steven J. Skerlos, "Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Payback for Lightweighted Vehicles Using Aluminum and High-Strength Steel," Journal of Industrial
Ecology, vol. 14, pp. 929-946, 2010.
[5] M. Nourreddine, "Recycling of auto shredder residue," Journal of Hazardous Materials, vol. A139, pp.
481-490, 2007.