The Current andFuture Trends of
ICT
2023
Version 1.0

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Contents

Outline of this reportiii

Chapter 1 Introduction

1

1.1. Recent Global Conditions

1

1.1.1. COVID-19 and ICT

1

1.1.2. Changes in International Relations and ICT

11.2. Conditions in Various Countries and Regions1

1.2.1. Conditions in North America

1

1.2.2. Conditions in Europe3

1.2.3. Conditions in Asia

5

Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas
2.1. Foundational Cross-Cutting Technology

77

2.1.1. Background7

2.1.2. Current Research and Development Trends

7

2.1.3. Future Prospects

82.2. Utilization of Electromagnetic Waves

8

2.2.1 Background9

2.2.2. Current Research and Development Trends

10

2.2.3. Future Prospects

132.3. Communication Network Infrastructure14

2.3.1. Background14

2.3.2. Current Research and Development Trends

15

2.3.3. Future Prospects

162.4. ICT Device Technology

17

2.4.1. Background17

2.4.2. Current Research and Development Trends

18

2.4.3. Future Prospects

192.5. Cybersecurity

20

2.5.1. Background21

2.5.2. Current Research and Development Trends

22

2.5.3. Future Prospects

242.6. Quantum ICT

24

2.6.1. Background25

2.6.2. Current Research and Development Trends

26

2.6.3. Future Prospects

27

2.7. AI/Universal Communication
2.7.1. Background

28
29

─i─

2.7.2. Current Research and Development Trends

30

2.7.3. Future Prospects

31

2.8. Bio-ICT and Brain Science for ICT

33

2.8.1. Background33

2.8.2. Current Research and Development Trends

34

2.8.3 Future Prospects

35

Chapter 3 Concluding Remarks

37

Appendix A Terminology

I

Appendix B References

III

Appendix C Additional Information

VIII

C-1. Conditions in Europe (related to Chapter 1.2.2)

VIII

C-1-1. Forming Europe’s Digital Future

VIII

C-1-2. Geopolitical Trends in Europe’s ICT sector

VIII

C-1-3. Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking

VIII

C-1-4. Research and Development in European Countries

VIII

C-1-5. Examples of Collaboration within Europe

VIII

C-1-6. Trends in the Green ICT field

VIII

C-1-7. Research and Development Trends in the Semiconductor Field

VIII

C-2. Regarding ICT Device Technology (Related to Chapter 2.4)

VIII

C-2-1. Domestic and Overseas Research and Development Examples

VIII

C-2-2. Research and Development Trends of Spatial Light Modulators (OPA)

IX

C-2-3. Research and Development Trends of Transistors and Diodes

IX

C-3. Universal Communication (Related to Chapter 2.7)

IX

C-3-1. Supplementary Information on Large-Scale Language Models

IX

C-3-2. Additional Information on GPT-3

IX

C-3-3. Supplementary Information on Conversational AI

IX

C-3-4. Issues on Conversational AI

X

C-3-5. LLM Development at NICTX

C-3-6. Real-World Modeling & Image Generation Technology

X

C-3-7. Urban Digital Twins

XI

C-4. Quantum ICT (Related to Section 2.6)

XI

C-4-1. Research and Development to Improve Quantum Computing Accuracy XI

Acknowledgements

─ii─

Outline of this report

Information Technology (IT) such as computers and software, along with Communication Technology (CT)represented by fiber optics and mobile phones has entered a phase of rapid spread and advancement since thelate 20th century. Recently, ICT (Information and Communication Technology) has become a vital component
supporting our society. At the same time, we are witnessing climate change, increasing demands for asustainable economy and society, and societal changes such as aging populations, particularly in developed
countries Undoubtedly, we face numerous challenges in our contemporary society. In this context, the ICT
sector is expected to play a significant role in resolving various issues and creating social and economic
infrastructures for the 21st-century.
This report aims to provide insight into the latest trends and future prospects of research and development(R&D) in the ICT field by examining the current trends. With this aim, the report is structured as follows:
In Chapter 1, we provide an overview of the global landscape surrounding the ICT field. With global
pandemics and geopolitical changes, our social environment has dramatically transformed, with ICT playing
a crucial role within it. This chapter focuses on the latest trends in ICT in North America, Europe, and Asia.
In Chapter 2, we discuss the latest developments in notable subfields within the ICT sector. First, in Section
2.1, we look at Beyond 5G, a fundamental cross-cutting technology expected to serve as the foundation for the
future Society 5.0. In Section 2.2, we discuss R&D trends regarding the utilization of electromagnetic waves,an essential medium for realizing various information and communication technologies. Then, in Section
2.3, we discuss the core of the ICT infrastructure, or the communication network infrastructure. In Section
2.4, we discuss the latest trends in ICT devices required for it. In Section 2.5, we discuss the latest trends inthe increasingly significant field of cybersecurity. In Section 2.6, we discuss the state-of-the-art R&D trends
in quantum ICT, a promising new paradigm. In Section 2.7, we cover a recent major topic, or generative AI,
including translation and dialogue technologies, from the perspective of universal communication. And in
Section 2.8, we discuss the latest trends in brain science for ICT, which can lead one of the ultimate formsof communication, and Bio-ICT, a new fusion of life sciences and ICT. This report includes an appendix
comprising a glossary, references, and other detailed information.

─iii─

Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1.2 Changes in International Relations and ICT

Introduction

In Febr uar y 2022, Russia invaded Uk raine and the

The field of Information and Communications Technology

days after invasion, Ukraine Deputy Prime Minister(ICT) is currently undergoing accelerated changes, fueled notFedorov requested support from Elon Musk, the founder

only by the ongoing digitalization of traditional society butof SpaceX via Twitter (currently X). Half a day later,

also by global-scale events such as the outbreak of infectious

satellite communication service by Starlink was launcheddiseases, international conflicts, and fluctuations in related

in Ukraine. Many pieces of equipment were delivered toeconomic conditions. In this section, we will discuss the

Ukraine, 150,000 people had used this service by May

social context surrounding the ICT field with trends in

2022. This event demonstrated the current state of ICT.

various regions worldwide, citing several key examples.

It is rapidly developing as a social infrastructure as seen

Chapter 1

international political situation changed rapidly. Two

through swift responses on Twitter and next-generation
communication networks expanding vertically to include

1.1 Recent Global Conditions

airspace and outer space.
As tensions surrounding security in the international

1.1.1 COVID-19 and ICT
Since 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 has significantly

community increase, numerous attacks targeting governmenttransformed people’s lives. Global E-commerce market

agencies and vital infrastructures are taking place around thesales have exceeded 4 trillion USD (up 19.5% from theworld. In October 2021, 30 countries, including Japan and theprevious year in 2021), and the use of web conferencing

United States, issued a joint statement declaring ransomware

systems for remote work and online learning, among othera global threat. In September 2022, at the Japan-Australia-

purposes, has rapidly increased, leading to a surge inIndia-U.S. (Quad) Foreign Ministers Meeting, a statement wasinternet traffic (Fig. 1.1-1).

issued regarding ransomware to strengthen their international
cooperation against this global menace 3).

Consequently, power consumption related to ICT has
also been on an increasing trend. Projections suggest that if

Significant transformations are also occurring in theno technological innovations are implemented, by 2050 wefield of AI. In November 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT.

could see over 4,000 times the consumption levels of 2016

Two months af ter release, the user base exceeded(Fig. 1.1-2). In order for Japan to achieve its goal of carbon

100 million and it is rapidly expanding. Owing to theneutrality by 2050 which is the pledge by the government

innovative advancements in machine learning technology,

to the international community, Japan needs to improve its

the chatbot has become impressively sophisticated for its

energy conservation in the ICT field through technologicalability to generate text, with expectations for fostering

innovation (Green of ICT) and save energy consumption

innovation across various fields. It has been observed thatand improve operational efficiency through the active use

such recent advancements in AI technology are having aof ICT (Green by ICT).

considerable geopolitical influence 4).

1.2 Conditions in Various Countries andRegions
In the societal context mentioned above, the ICT field is

Doubled in 18 months

garnering unprecedented attention and expectations. In the
Increasing at an annual rate of approximately 20%
May
2017

November
2017

May
2018

November
2018

May
2019

November2019

following sections, we will discuss the latest trends surrounding
May
2020

November
2020

May
2021

the ICT field in North America, Europe, and Asia.

November
2021

Fig. 1.1-1 Internet Traffic Trends 1)

1.2.1 Conditions in North America
IT power consumption (estimate)
IP traffic (ZB/year)

2016

2030
4.7

The United States has long been the global leader in

2050
170

scientific and technological innovation. However, the trend

20,200Power consumption (domestic: TWh/year)

41

1,480

176,200

Power consumption (global: TWh/year)

1,170

42,3005,030,000

Fig. 1.1-2 Predicted IT-related Power Consumptionof federal government support for R&D since 2000 has
sparked concerns about a decline in research capabilities,

2)

─1─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

particularly in universities, and the consequent weakening(a) Quantum ICTof U.S. national power 5). On the other hand, due to its rapid

While companies like IBM and Google are leading

economic development, China has begun to catch up withthe development of quantum computing, in the Unitedor even surpass the United States in some fields in terms ofStates, early blueprints for quantum networks have also

scientific technology innovation indicators . In response,

been presented by the federal government. In locations

discussions have intensified in the U.S., particularly during theacross the country, including Chicago, New York, andTrump administration, about strengthening competitivenessWashington DC, test-bed construction is advancing aroundand economic security through advancement of scientificnational research institutions and universities. These

technology innovation. Under the Biden administration, theefforts have resulted in pioneering outcomes such as thedemand for economic security has been increasing due toworld’s first commercialization of quantum memory by

the COVID-19 pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, andstartups 9) and the construction of test beds in collaboration

scientific technology innovation policy is regarded as anwith regional telecommunications providers 10).

6)

important issue.
The U.S. R&D ecosystem has evolved primarily(b) Beyond 5G/6G

through key entities such as higher education institutions,

In 2020, the Next G Alliance, a private sector-led initiative

Federally Funded Research and Development Centers

to promote 6G, was established, and around 100 entities,(FFRDCs), national research institutes, and private

including universities and national research institutions,companies including big tech firms and start-ups. Acrossare actively developing a roadmap. Also, in April 2021, thethe nation, regional research hubs have been formed

National Science Foundation (NSF) launched the RINGS

around universities and national research institutes, and(Resilient & Intelligent NextG Systems) R&D project. The

the hubs have been fostering and exchanging highly skilled

NSF is providing up to 1 million dollars over three years

personnel able to serve for technological innovation andfor 42 selected research proposals in collaboration with 9technology transfers.

private companies. Concurrently, expert working groups

The American Jobs Plan and a series of large-scalefrom the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) 11)

budget bills proposed by the Biden administration aim toare discussing key technologies, candidate frequency bands,

boost regional innovation capabilities while prioritizing

and use cases for 6G, and particularly it is interesting to

problem-solving through enhancing the capabilities ofregard 6G as one of the foundational systems for realizing

the national research institutes, which play a particularly

the metaverse. In addition, 2022 saw partnerships announced

crucial role in the regional R&D ecosystem, establishing

between T-Mobile, Apple, and satellite communication

new research centers, and providing direct support for theoperators, making it the inaugural year for Non-Terrestrial

regional research hubs. These are referred to as once-in-a-

Networks (NTNs). It will be interesting to see how thesegeneration investments aimed at gaining a lead over China,

trends go along well with 6G.

now America's only competitor .
7)

In this context, ICT, including artificial intelligence(c) AI(AI), quantum information science and technology (QIST),The unveiling of ChatGPT in November 2022 and theand 5G/6G, is gaining attention alongside green energy

subsequent intensification of competition around AI among

technology as an essential field. Furthermore, due to thebig tech firms have made it widely recognized that AI is

expectations of these as dual-use technologies, defense-

rapidly evolving, while also pointing out its current technicalrelated agencies are actively supporting high-risk research

limitations 12). The Biden administration emphasizes

and demonstrations 8) . In nur turing these emerging

addressing Ethical, Legal, and Social Issues (ELSI) in science

technologies, partnerships are being vigorously establishedand technology and published the “Blueprint for an AI Billnot only between government and private sectors but alsoof Rights” in October 2022, advocating for both innovation

among allied countries under the leadership of the White

through AI and the protection of civil rights. It is expectedHouse Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP)

to reinforce such initiatives through collaboration with theand the National Science Foundation (NSF).

EU and regulations such as the American Data Privacy andAmong these trends in the United States, the following

Protection Act (ADPPA).

recent developments should be of particular interest to Japan:

As previously mentioned, as the importance of scientific─2 ─Chapter 1 Introduction

technology innovation policy grows in the United States,with security, including the construction of quantum

cooperation in emerging technology fields will be surely

communication infrastructure and satellite constellation

enhanced between Japan and the U.S. and among Japan,

projects. Various European countries, taking into accountthe U.S., Australia, and India (QUAD). And, agreements

the EU’s initiatives, are also actively pursuing initiatives infor collaborations in the fields of quantum ICT and Beyond

the ICT field.

5G/6G are made between industry consortiums to enhance

Given these developments, we provide an overview of

their cooperation.

the trends in each field in Europe.

1.2.2 Conditions in Europe(1) Beyond 5G/6G (B5G/6G)

In Europe, following the appointment of a new President

In Europe, Finland was the first in the world to startof the European Commission in December 2019, the twin

initiatives related to B5G/6G.18) Subsequently, in Januarytransition of green and digital has been positioned as a

2021, the EU launched the flagship project for B5G/6G,

major policy of the European Union (EU). In “Shaping

Hexa-X, and in November of the same year, it established

Europe’s Digital Future,” 13) (Appendix C-1-1) the EUa public-private partnership called Smart Networks andemphasizes not only the development and deployment

Services Joint Undertaking 17), which is implementingof cutting-edge digital capabilities and the advancement

R&D projects by investing a total of 1.8 billion euros

of 5G/6G, but also initiatives that take into accountfrom both the public and private sectors over seven years

competition with the U.S. and China. These initiatives(Appendix C-1-3). Among the European countries, the UK

include data strategies, platform regulation, AI regulatory

announced three R&D projects and the construction offrameworks, and greening of ICT, marking the distinctive

experimental facilities in December 2022 19), and Germany

EU approach that covers regulatory measures.

established four research hubs in August 2021 20) and has

With regard to research, development, implementation,

been implementing individual R&D projects since theand deployment in the ICT field in the EU, (1) various

second quarter of 2022 21). The respective countries areproject s a re bei ng i mplemented t h roug h Hor i zon

actively conducting R&D, aiming at standardization from

Europe , which funds research and innovation activities,

around 2025 (Appendix C-1-4). One of the main features(2) Digital Europe, which supports the implementation andof the R&D of B5G/6G is that it incorporates not only

15)

deployment of digital fields such as AI and cybersecurity ,mobile-related technology but also technologies related toand (3) Connecting Europe Facility, which supports the

optical communication, photonics-electronics fusion, andestablishment of cross-border network infrastructure .

NTN, considering energy efficiency, security, privacy, and

14)

16)

the electromagnetic environment.
(2) Quantum ICT
In October 2018, the EU launched the Quantum Flagshipproject to invest 1 billion euros over 10 years 22) andadvance R&D while also constructing testbeds throughthe OPENQKD project 23). In June 2019, it announced
the European Quantum Communication Infrastructure(Euro QCI) initiative to develop and deploy quantum
communication infrastructure throughout Europe within
10 years 24), and currently, the construction of quantum

Fig. 1.2-1 Shaping Europe’s Digital Futurecommunication infrastructure in each country is being
advanced through individual projects centered on Digital

Furthermore, geopolitical shifts have significantly

Europe.

transformed Europe’s activities in the f ield of ICT.
(Appendix C-1-2) In recent years, the EU has strongly

Among the European countries, France announced apromoted concepts such as technological sovereignty,

national quantum strategy in February 2021 25), and the UK

digital sovereignty, and strategic autonomy 17), advancing

also announced a new national quantum strategy to invest

policies and R&D in the ICT f ield that inter t wine

25 billion pounds over the next 10 years in March 2023 26).

─3 ─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

(3) Cybersecurity, Network Security

2018, various policies related to data sharing and utilization

Regarding cybersecurity, in December 2020, the EU

have been announced with a focus on competing withannounced the Cybersecurity Strategy for the Digitalplatform operators in the US and China.

Decade, and the Amended Directive on Security of

In February 2020, the European Commission announced

Network and Information Systems (NIS2) to expand risk

the European Data Strategy 36), and subsequently proposedmanagement and incident reporting obligations 27). Also,

the Digital Market Act 37) to promote fair competition inin September 2022, the European Commission proposed

the digital market; the Digital Services Act 38) to protect

the Cyber Resilience Act, which imposes mandatory

consumers from illegal products, services, and content

requirements related to cybersecurity on all hardware andonline; and the Data Act 39) to promote data sharing ofsoftware products with digital elements, and it requires a

private industrial data. Thus, in Europe, rules regarding

CE marking. For R&D and implementation and deployment

data handling are being formed one after another, andprojects are being carried out in for Horizon Europe andprivate companies are required to operate with awareness

Digital Europe, and Privacy Enhancing Technologies (PETs)of these rules.

and technologies that utilize encrypted data are being

Also, regarding the promotion of data sharing andresearched in light of the implementation of the Generalutilization within the EU, Germany announced the federal

Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

European cloud/data infrastructure concept Gaia-X in

Regarding network security, the EU adopted the 5G

October 2019 40). And, Germany holds up the European

Network Cybersecurity Toolbox in January 2020 and is

Data Strategy to make Data Spaces, which is designed

promoting initiatives in each country to restrict high-risk

to promote data sharing in strategic sectors, and it isvendors . In the UK, the Telecommunications (Security) Act

advancing Data Space construction projects in each sector

was enacted in November 2021, and a legal notice prohibitingin line with Digital Europe.

28)

the use of Huawei in 5G was issued in October 2022 29).
Various European countries, including the UK in(6) Green ICT

31)

December 2021 , France in February of the same year ,Another characteristic of Europe is that both the public

and Germany in September of the same year , announced

and private sectors are actively promoting green ICT

new cybersecurity strategies, strengthening their initiatives.

initiatives. The 26 EU member states and others have

30)

32)

signed a declaration to accelerate the use of green digital(4) AI

technologies for the environmental benefits (Appendix

In the EU, in addition to R&D, there is a particular focus

C-1-6), and in the private sector, 26 CEOs have launchedon ethical issues related to AI. In April 2021 33)34), thethe European Green Digital Coalition 41), pledging climate

EU proposed the AI Act, which is the first-ever legal

neutrality by 2040.

framework for AI systems. It also proposed an AI Liability

For R&D and implementation and deployment, R&D

Directive, which sets unified rules for civil liability for

projects are being implemented in each country 42), anddamage caused by AI systems 35).

sustainability-focused projects are being publicly solicited

For R&D a nd i mplement at ion a nd deploy ment,

and implemented in each field such as B5G/6G.

numerous projects are being car ried out under the

In addition, as part of the green ICT initiatives, theframeworks of Horizon Europe and Digital Europe, andEU has implemented legislative amendments regarding

public-private partnerships have also been established.

the unification of charging plugs on electronic devices toAmong the European countries, the UK announced a

USB-C 43).

national AI strategy in September 2021, France announced
the second phase of the national AI strategy in Novemberof the same year, and Germany announced a revision of
the national AI strategy in December 2020, indicating thatnational strategies are being rolled out (Appendix C-1-5).

(7) Main Initiatives for European Technological
Sovereignty, Digital Sovereignty, and Strategic
Autonomy
In the space sector, the EU announced the construction
plan for the satellite constellation IRIS2 44), which aims to(5) Data Strategy and Personal Data & Privacy Protection

provide secure, high-speed connectivity across Europe,

In Europe, in addition to the enforcement of the GDPR in

including with quantum communications, to ensure─4 ─

Chapter 1 Introduction

Europe’s autonomy and digital sovereignty.

government, in March 2023 51) 52). The group is planning to

In the semiconductor sector, the European Commission

develop a roadmap and action plan for 6G.

has proposed the European Chips Act with the aim ofstrengthening the semiconductor supply chain and establishing
Europe’s technological leadership45)(2) AI(Appendix C-1-7).

In Singapore, the country is advancing AI development

In the standardization sector, the European Commission

and AI adoption through the formulation of the National

announced a new European standardization strategy in

Artificial Intelligence Strategy 53), which aims to realize

February 2022 46). In the strategy, a proposed European

national-level AI in the fields of transport and logistics,

Standardization Rule was included, which stipulates

smart cities and real estate, healthcare, education, andthat only standardization bodies in the EU and thesafety and security. In a survey across 181 countries andEuropean Economic Area are allowed to be concerned

regions on the preparedness of national governments forwith the European standards demanded by the European

artificial intelligence (AI), Singapore was ranked second,

Commission. It demonstrates a strong awareness offollowing the United States 54).
In other ASEAN regions, national strategies for AI have

European technological sovereignty and strategic autonomy.

been formulated in Indonesia 55), Thailand 56), Malaysia 57),
1.2.3 Conditions in Asia

and Vietnam 58).

The ASEAN member countries (10 in total) have a total

In India, based on the national AI strategy National

population of approximately 670 million people, equivalent

Strategy for Artificial Intelligence #AIFORALL 59) thatto about five times the population of Japan. In recent years,

was formulated in 2018, foundational research (COREs,

the GDP per capita has been improving, and the GDP

Centres of Research Excellence in Artificial Intelligence)reached approximately $3.3 trillion. This represents 67.7%

a nd applicat ion-based tech nolog ical developmentof Japan’s GDP and 4.5% of the global GDP 47). Despitea nd deploy ment ( ICTA I, I nter nat ional Cent re forthe major downward pressure on the world economy due

Transformational Artificial Intelligence) are underway,

to US-China trade friction and COVID-19, Southeast Asiawith agriculture, healthcare, education, smart cities,

has often been in the spotlight as a stable destination for

infrastructure, and smart mobility as key areas. In addition,business expansion. Noteworthy recent developments inthe country has planned to train 3 million government

the research fields that should be strategically pursued by

employees on AI 60), indicating a strong competitive edge

Japan are described below.

in terms of human resources 54).

(1) Beyond 5G/6G(GPAI), an international initiative committed to the

In Singapore, the Infocomm Media Development Authority

development and use of responsible AI based on a human-(IMDA) collaborated with the Singapore University ofcentric approach, Singapore joined from Southeast Asia

Technology and Design (SUTD) to establish the Future

as a founding member in June 2020, along with Australia,

Communications Connectivity (FCC) Lab within the

New Zealand, and India.

As for the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligenceuniversity in September 2022, marking Southeast Asia’s
first 6G research institution 48).

(3) Quantum ICT

In Vietnam, the country’s Minister of Information and

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial ResearchCommunications, Nguyen Manh Hung, announced in

Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia predicts that theJanuary 2021 that the country would begin research on

country’s quantum technology could create a market

the 6th generation mobile communication system within

worth 6 billion Australian dollars (approximately 570

the year . Furthermore, in February 2022, a committee

billion yen) and about 19,000 jobs by 2045 61). Quantum

was established with the Minister of Information andtechnology is one of the seven pillars in the “List ofCommunications as its chairman to create a roadmap for

Critical Technologies in the National Interest” prepared

the research and commercialization of 6G .

by the Australian government in 2021 62). Amidst these

49)

50)

In addition, Indian Prime Minister Modi announced

developments, a National Quantum Strategy is currently

the 6G Vision compiled by the 6G Technology Innovation

being formulated as an important measure to grow theGroup (TIG), a collaboration of industry, academia, andquantum industry and introduce innovative quantum─5 ─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

technologies. In April 2022, an issue paper for the strategy

significantly outpacing finance and insurance, each

formulation (National Quantum Strategy: issues paper)with 18%. In terms of case numbers in the region, Japan

was published, and comments were solicited until June 3,

accounted for 91%, followed by the Philippines with 5%,2022 . Also, in February 2023, the University of Sydney

and Australia, India, and Vietnam each with 1.5% 70).

63)

announced an investment of 7.4 million Australian dollars

I n response to this sit uation, cou nt r ies such as

to expand its quantum technology facilities and establish

Si ngapore, Malaysia, and T hailand have enforced

the Future Qubit Foundry in the Sydney Nanoscience Hubpersonal information protection laws, and legal systems. It is intended to be a key domestic

for protecting personal information are being developed

hub for the development of future quantum computerin Southeast Asia 71) 72). In terms of risk management

technology, aiming for large-scale operation and thefor critical infrastructures, Australia introduced a legal

practical application of quantum computers.

system in 2021 that requires the formulation of riskof the university

64)

The Indian government is pushing forward with a five-

management plans and incident reporting and allows

year plan based on the National Mission on Quantum

government intervention if critical infrastructure operators

Technologies & Applications (NM-QTA), which allocates

do not respond adequately to incidents 73). In Indonesia, aa budget of 80 billion rupees for quantum technology R&Dpresidential regulation was issued in 2021 on the protection

over five years .

of critical information infrastructures, which is expected

65)

Furthermore, in March 2022, it was reported thatto come into effect in May 2024 73).

scientists from the Defence Research and Development

In such circumstances, the Japan-ASEAN Cybersecurity

O rga n isat ion ( DR DO) a nd t he I ndia n I nst it ute of

Capacity Building Centre (AJCCBC) 74), established inTechnology (IIT) Delhi successf ully demonstrated

2018 as part of the Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs andQuantum Key Distribution (QKD) between Prayagraj andCommunications’ cooperation on cybersecurity to develop

Vindhyachal in Uttar Pradesh, more than 100 km apart 66).

cyber security human resources in ASEAN countries,

Moreover, in April 2022, India hosted the Bilateral

has been conducting practical cyber defense exercises

Workshop on Quantum Technologies (I2QT 2022)

67)(CYDER) targeting government agencies and criticalwith Israel. The DRDO, DRDO-Industr y-Academia

infrastructure operators. In February 2023, a signingCentre of Excellence (DIA-CoE), and Indian Institute of

ceremony was held between the Japan International

Technology Delhi (IIT-D) sponsored the workshop, where

Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the Thai government for

175 participants, including experts, scientists, and businessa technical cooperative project aimed at further enhancing

people, discussed quantum technology roadmaps, quantum

these efforts and improving cybersecurity responsecomputing, and quantum communication in free space.

capabilities across the region 75).

India is promoting quantum research collaboration withother countries, and especially with Finland, it is planningto establish the “Indo-Finnish Virtual Network Center on
Quantum Computing” 68).
In February 2022, it was reported that a Singaporebased quantum technology company, SpeQtral, started
the SpeQtral-1 quantum satellite mission 69). It is part of
the Space Technology Development Program (STDP) by
the Office for Space Technology and Industry (OSTIn) of
Singapore and the SpeQtral-1 satellite, which is scheduled
to be launched in 2024, will be one of the few quantum key
distribution satellites launched by a private entity.
(4) Cybersecurity
In 2022, the Asia-Pacific region remained the region most
attacked by cyberattacks, with manufacturing being themost attacked industry, accounting for 48% of all cases,─6 ─Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

caregiver fatigue, etc. (Fig. 2.1-1). It is expected that a society

Chapter 2

based on the information communication system of Beyond

Trends in Key Areas

5G can solve these issues and create a society that makes it

In this chapter, we will discuss the environment, current

easier to enjoy the richness of human nature.

R&D trends, and future prospects in the ICT R&D field

For society after 2030, it will be necessary to create an

related to the social trends mentioned earlier. Starting

environment where each industry and business operator canwith Beyond 5G/6G, which is a foundational cross-cutting

flexibly collaborate, appropriately share roles, and thrive intechnology, we will cover eight specialized fields andorder to create new services that solve social issues. To this

discuss their trends.

end, it is necessary to establish a mechanism that promotes theintegration of technologies and collaboration across industries.
The new services born in this way may even influence

2.1 Foundational Cross-Cutting
Technology

the values related to society and human life. For example,

Beyond 5G, the next generation mobile communicationexchanges of intangible assets have the potential to bringsystem following 5G, is expected to play a role notinnovative value but also the potential to create ethical,

merely as a communication infrastructure, but as a social

legal, and social issues (ELSI). Because a wide range ofinfrastructure. In order for Japan, whose capital strength is

things can be realized with Beyond 5G, a discussion that

not necessarily at the top, to make a comeback and break

incorporates these aspects is integrally necessary.

human behavioral changes caused by AI or distributed

the sense of stagnation surrounding the current Japanese
ICT industry, an integrated utilization of cutting-edge
technologies that cut across industrial sectors is required,with Beyond 5G as a guiding principle, from 2030 onward.
In this section, we will show the challenges of theenvironment surrounding the current communication
system in Japan, provide an overview of efforts towards
R&D of Beyond 5G technologies, and discuss the expected
future prospects.
Fig. 2.1-1 Diversifying social issues and Beyond 5G

2.1.1 BackgroundA common reflection on the efforts of the 5G business in

2.1.2 Current Research and Development Trends

Japan is that while we can win with technology, we often

A number of activities are being conducted in Japancannot win in the market. This is due to the lack of foresight

towards the realization of Beyond 5G. First, regardingand execution to turn our excellent R&D capabilities inthe vision, the Beyond 5G Promotion Consortium 76) has

cutting-edge technology into a business. To begin with, itbeen steadily advancing collaborations by creating whiteis thought that there is a sense of stagnation in industries

papers, disseminating information to explore international

in Japan today, even beyond the ICT industry, because

collaborations, and signing MoUs with overseas research

efforts are either not rewarded due to external factors

institutions. Also, the Beyond 5G New Business Strategy

or environments conducive to making an effort are notCenter 77) conducts activities such as hosting seminars

provided. One of the reasons for this is that social issues are

on intellectual property and standardization, publishing

more diverse, and it has become difficult for industries toinformative guidebooks, and making proposals for futuresolve these problems just with their own initiatives.

society by leaders from outside of company frameworks.

Examples of diverse social issues include balancing child

Regarding R&D, NICT is implementing the Beyond

rearing with a career, education disparities due to family

5G R&D Promotion Project 78) to establish Beyond 5G

economic resources, homogenization and passivity due totechnology elements as quickly as possible. Based on

uniform education, employment limitations due to place ofthe Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications’

residence or physical constraints, an increase in social security

g rant, N ICT has set up a f u nd and com missioned

expenses due to an increase in unhealthy life expectancy andcompanies, universities, and others to conduct R&D.

─7 ─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

The commissioned R&D project covers a wide range

systems, HAPS (High-Altitude Platform Station), satelliteof fields from semiconductors to digital twins, and thecommunication systems, the metaverse, and digital twins

collaboration and social deployment of their researchof each industry are depicted, and multiple operators

results is highly anticipated. Moreover, NICT has

exist in each industry. Therefore, one or multiple systems

conducted R&D for a long period of time and is working

are provided by the same industry. Moreover, multiple

to integrate technologies and adapt them to achieve

industries provide systems to implement services.

Beyond 5G.
There are also some movements related to forums andcommunities connected to Beyond 5G. IOWN is a concept
regarding the network infrastructure of communicationand computing resources, mainly focusing on opticalcommunication technology, and is conducting international
discussions on use cases and demonstrations throughthe establishment of a Global Forum 79). The Terahertz
System Application Promotion Council 80) is examining
issues related to system development based on terahertz

Fig. 2.1-2 Beyond 5G Services Realized by Connecting
Different Industries

technology and users’ need for terahertz systems. The
Space ICT Promotion Forum 81) is conducting information

I n order to realize this, a coordi nator who canshar ing, coordination /st rategic f ield organization,

discover, select, and set up systems according to theand strategy reviews regarding space communication

services required by the users is needed to work acrosstechnology. The Wireless Emulator Utilization Societysystems. In (Fig. 2.1-2), it is shown as the orchestrator

Promotion Forum 82) conducts information exchange andwho communicates with each system through a common

dissemination activities related to a wireless emulator thatinterface. Moreover, it is impossible for users to handle

can simulate wireless systems by building a radio usage

such complex systems directly, so a service enabler exists

environment in a virtual space.

as an intermediary. The service enabler has an interface
to exchange user and service level requests and break

2.1.3 Future Prospects

them down, and hand them over to the orchestrator. It will

By the 2030s, it is desirable for all businesses andbe necessary to define this concept for the architecture

individuals to play an active and equal role in the Beyondof Beyond 5G and to work on specifying the necessary

5G system, and by developing such an environment,functions and interfaces.

new values will be created through open innovation.

In this way, Beyond 5G is expected to evolve fromThe companies or individuals who will play a leading

being just a mobile communication infrastructure to arole should not be confined to the same industry, suchsocial infrastructure that supports service creation. If thisas the information and communication field, but should

way of thinking is widely accepted, there is a possibility

participate across multiple industries.

that a game change may occur in the business of the

In this way, var ious resou rces (com munication,

current information and communication infrastructure.

c omput i ng, t i me, s pa ce, f re que ncy, et c.) w i l l b eeffectively used as a whole, leading to the creation of

2.2 Utilization of Electromagnetic Waves

services that create new value. To achieve this, not only
the advancement of component technologies but also

Modern society cannot keep its function without themechanisms that connect them are necessary, as they are autilization of electromagnetic waves such as radio waves

crucial concept of Beyond 5G.

and light. They support not only communication but also

Fig. 2.1-2 shows the concept of the Beyond 5G systemmeteorological observation and forecasting, infrastructure

constituting a collective of all systems. To realize thesystem maintenance, ensuring the safe operation of electricalservices required by users, it is necessary to combine

and electronic devices that are integrated into our daily lives,

multiple systems across industries and set them up

and disaster management. In short, our modern society isappropriately. Here, terrestrial mobile communication

supported by the use of electromagnetic waves.

─8 ─

Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

In this chapter, we discuss the R&D trends of the

Changes in the space environment (in other words,

following five key technologies to utilize electromagnetic

space weather), such as space radiation and geomagnetic

waves, which are necessary for realizing Society 5.0 83):

stor ms, originating from solar activity, can have a• Remote sensing technology that is essential for transferring

signif icant impact on social infrastr ucture such as

information from physical space to cyber space.

aviation operations, power systems, satellite operations,• Tech nolog y to u nderst and and predict the spacetelecommunications, and broadcasting in our highly

environment (space weather forecast) necessary for

ICT-enabled society. Sometimes, such space weather

realizing a network system (Non-Terrestrial Network,

disturbances can disr upt the stable usage of social

NTN) that seamlessly connects the ground, ocean, airinfrastructures (Fig. 2. 2-2). Solar activity, which follows(including the stratosphere), and space.

an approximately 11-year cycle, is expected to reach its• Electromagnetic environment technology that accurately

next peak around 2025. The size and frequency of solar

measures and evaluates the safety of radio waves inf lares are gradually increasing, and societal impacts

response to major changes in radio wave usage.

such as malfunctions of low-orbit satellites have begun• Technology to generate, measure, and provide time andto appear. In order to predict these effects on societal

frequency, which is the basis of ICT and realizes a safe

activities in advance and minimize disruptions, precise

and secure social life.

understanding and forecasting of space weather is being• Digital optics technology that creates a next-generation

implemented through international cooperation, alongcommunication environment causing behavioral changes

with promoting the R&D of technologies.

through actuation.
Flaresdinrw

Abnormal weather and weather-related disasters occur

laSo

Safe operation ofsatellites

2.2.1 Backgroundfrequently around the world, including in Japan. In particular,

Safe flight of aircraft

the intensification of recent heavy rain disasters has been

Solar flares affectpower facilities.

reported by the International Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) to be undoubtedly due to ongoing global warming.
Issues such as global environmental and climate change,

High-energy particle
beams arrive at Earth in
30 minutes to two days
Radio waves are asocial infrastructure
for urban life

safety and security of life, disaster prevention and reduction,

Effects ofsolar wind
disturbancearrive at
Earth in two
to three days

Flare X-ray radiation
arrives at Earth in eightminutes

Safe navigation ofships

and homeland resilience are becoming increasingly
important. An approach using digital twins (Fig. 2.2-1) isFig. 2.2-2 Variations in the Space Environment and
Their Impact

effective for these challenges, and the importance of remotesensing technology is increasing as it serves as the entry
point for information from physical space to cyber space.

Meanwhile, our social environment is increasingly
electrified and digitized. We are surrounded by various
electromagnetic waves that cause various electromagnetic
compatibility issues (Fig.2.2-3). In particular, electromagnetic
noise from energy-saving appliances is becoming a problem

サイバー空間

as it interferes with the communication of nearby wireless

Cyber Spacedevices. In addition, it is necessary to appropriately maintain

プロセッシング

and manage safety from the perspective of human exposure to

Processing

計測・投影

駆動

Sensing & Projector

Actuation

the radio waves emitted by currently widely proliferating 5G
systems and those from Beyond 5G/6G systems. Furthermore,
improvements are being made in the performance of measuring
instruments used for testing and inspecting the performanceof wireless communication devices, and technologies to

実空間

Physical Space

manage them are also becoming necessary. Electromagnetic
environment technology aims at solving these issues.

Fig. 2.2-1 Conceptual Diagram of Digital Twin

─9 ─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

Rain radars, one of the sensors that sense atmosphericRadio wave
(Intentional radiation)
Electromagnetic interference(Unintentional radiation)
Biological effectphenomena, are starting to permeate on-site operations with
Doppler radars that can observe wind speed and polarization
radars that excel in quantitative observations. On the other

Malfunction

Interference(mixed)hand, in cutting-edge research, the development of phasedarray radars capable of high-density observation in time andspace is progressing, but they remain at the R&D stage in allRadiointerference

Commnucation andbroadcasting systems

countries. The multi-parameter phased array weather radar(MP-PAWR), developed by NICT and others, which combines

Electrical and ICT equipments

Doppler, polarization, and phased array technologies, is one ofFig. 2.2-3 Concept of the Electromagnetic Environment

the world’s highest performance rain radars closest to practical
In modern society, which is built upon advanced

use. Also, LIDAR is a useful technology for observing clear-science and technology, it is essential for society to sharesky atmospheres without rainfall. Various methods have beenstandards time and frequency. Wireless communication

proposed, and Doppler LIDAR and water vapor LIDAR haveis possible because there is a standard for frequency,

started to be used experimentally for weather observation. The

and the operation of transportation systems, high-speed

development of multi-parameter differential absorption LIDAR

e-commerce, telecommunications, and broadcasting are(MP-DIAL) capable of simultaneous observation of multiple

possible because there is a standard time. High-precisionparameters such as wind speed, water vapor, and CO2 is also

time can be obtained first by preparing a high-precision

advancing.

frequency standard, represented by atomic clocks, andSynthetic aperture radar (SAR), for observing the surface

continuously operating it. High-precision frequencyof the earth with high accuracy, is achieving higher resolutions

standards have been realized by atomic clocks since(Fig. 2.2-4). NICT has achieved a resolution of 15 cm withthe middle of the last century, and the advent of atomic

the airborne X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar system (Pi-clocks has enabled the GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite

SAR X3). For satellite SAR, private companies are launching

System) positioning. The technology to generate, measure,

multiple small satellite SARs, and plans to observe the global

and provide time and frequency provides the core ofsurface condition every few hours for commercial use aremodern ICT.

progressing.

Digital optics technology is a technique that upgrade

Earth observations using large satellites are being improving

the field of diffractive optics, with the core being techniqueswith international cooperation. The soon-to-be-launched Earththat numerically and accurately emulate the propagation ofobservation satellite, EarthCARE, is equipped with the first cloud

electromagnetic waves in the near-infrared to visible light range.

radar to perform Doppler observations from a satellite. In satellite

As the technology that contribute to the realization of Society

precipitation observations, studies are underway for a successor

5.0, it includes the sensing of the real world (natural light

mission to the current Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM)

holography) and the manufacturing of semi-transparent opticalproject to achieve high-accuracy vertical Doppler observations.
With performance improvements in each sensor, theelements for the AR/VR actuation side.

amount of data obtained is also becoming enormous. R&D
2.2.2 Current Research and Development Trendsof data compression and restoration and delivery systems to(1) Remote Sensing Technology

promote the utilization of these data are also being conducted.

Daily familiar weather forecasts can be seen as a close example
of an approach using digital twins from a technical perspective,
but there are still many challenges. While fairly high accuracy
NICT

in predicting heavy rain up to about 10 minutes in advance has
been achieved through short-term precipitation forecasting,the prediction of linear rainbands hours to a day in advance

5〜10kmstill lacks accuracy. Research for it is being conducted fromvarious perspectives, such as numerical forecasting models,observations, and elucidation of phenomena.

Fig. 2.2-4 Concept of Synthetic Aperture Radar─10 ─

Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas(2) Technology to Understand and Predict the Space
Environment
For space weather, it is of utmost importance to understandand predict its occurrence and scale faster and to deliver
appropriate information to minimize its impact. To prepare
for severe space weather disasters, advancements arebeing made in understanding current state and forecasting
technologies, which are the basis for space weather forecasts.
As a technology for nowcast, for observation from theground, domestic and foreign organizations are cooperatingwith each other to observe a wide range of areas, taking theirallotments. In Japan, NICT is the only institution conducting
regular ionospheric observations. Also, the continuous 24hour data collection of solar wind from spacecraft and the
expansion of high-density ionospheric observation network in
Southeast Asia are advancing in collaboration with domestic
and foreign research institutions. In observations from space,international observations are conducted by satellites equippedwith space environment sensors, and in Japan, the developmentof sensors is being advanced with the aim of the nextgeneration Himawari satellite scheduled for launch in 2028
in collaboration among the Japan Meteorological Agency, theMinistry of Internal Affairs and Communications, and NICT.
As for the technology for forecasting space weather,advancements are being made worldwide in technologies using
supercomputer-based simulation, data assimilation and AI(machine learning). For the atmospheric-ionospheric coupledmodel, domestically, the NICT-led development of the GAIA
data assimilation model is advancing under the leadership of
NICT in Japan, and similar development is also advancing in the
United States and other countries. Magnetospheric models arebeing developed by domestic and foreign research institutions,and only NICT can reproduce extreme phenomena. In addition,
development of forecast model for radiation belt electrons,
which cause satellite deep dielectric charging, Is underway
in cooperation with domestic research institutes. Solar windmodels are under R&D domestically and abroad. In Japan,
NICT is developing SUSANOO. The prediction of solar flareoccurrences using machine learning is fiercely competitive bothin Japan and internationally, and NICT has developed Deep
Flare Net, which has a world-class hit rate.
The development of services and applications to provide
users with current and future information about space weather
in an easy-to-understand manner is also progressing. In Japan,
the solar radiation exposure warning system WASAVIES, thesatellite surface charging risk assessment system SECURES,
and the shortwave band radio wave propagation simulator HFSTART have been developed.
For the monitoring and forecasting of global space
weather phenomena, international cooperation is essential,
and forecast services are being implemented in cooperation
with the International Space Environment Service (ISES),
which has 21 member countries. Standard and reference
specifications for observation data and equipment are being

determined in international organizations such as ITU-R,
WMO, ISO, CGMS. The ICAO is advancing the use of
space weather information in civil aviation operations, andinformation is being provided by the Global Space Weather
Center, which Japan also participates in.
(3) Electromagnetic Environment Technology
In order to ensure smooth interoperability between electrical andelectronic equipment and the coexistence of communication
and broadcasting in a complex electromagnetic environment,
especially when they are connected by a common power line, it
is important to clarify the mechanism of electromagnetic noise
generation and propagation among those pieces of equipment.
R&D are underway to establish parameters evaluation
methods for electromagnetic noise, which is dominant inelectromagnetic interference for wireless communication suchas 5G through theoretical studies, numerical simulations, andexperiments (Fig. 2.2-5).
In order to appropr iately evaluate the safet y of
exposure to radio waves from new wireless systems suchas Beyond 5G/6G, R&D are being promoted to develop
exposure evaluation technology, clarify the effects ofradio wave exposure on the human body, and further
extend radio radiation protection guidelines and realize
certification methods that correspond to the latest wirelesscommunication technologies.
In order to provide highly reliable data that can be used
for risk communication and epidemiological surveys on radio
wave protection, the acquisition, accumulation, and analysis ofradio wave exposure level monitoring data are being carriedout. In addition, efforts have begun to manage and operate theacquired and accumulated data over the long term.

Fig. 2.2-5 Measurement of the Electromagnetic Emission
from LED Lighting(4) Technology to Generate, Measure, andDisseminate Time and Frequency
The standards time and frequency are currently heading
towards a significant turning point for the first time in

─11─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

half a century. Until now, atomic clocks have used thehyperfine transition of alkali atoms in the GHz range,
and the transition of cesium atoms is the definition of thesecond in the International System of Units. However,since around 2000, optical clocks, which use the atomic
transitions of electromagnetic waves in the optical region
with frequencies of 4-5 orders of magnitude higher, havemade significant improvements in performance. The
accuracy shows an improvement of more than 2 orders ofmagnitude compared to conventional atomic clocks, and in
response to this, at the International General Conferenceon Weights and Measures held in 2022, it was resolvedthat the member countries of the Meter Convention would
make further efforts so that the definition of the SI second
could be changed in 2030.
On the other hand, in the process of its development,
microwave atomic clocks have enabled positioning using GNSS.
Japan’s Quasi-Zenith Satellite System is aimed to achieve
uninterrupted positioning without GPS, by around 2024.
In GNSS, atomic clocks are installed on satellites,
but they are not installed in mobile terminals. Therefore,
installing atomic clocks instead of conventional crystal
oscillators on the client side such as on mobile terminals
or autonomous vehicles are discussed to improve theaccuracy of time and positioning. This is expected torealize space-time synchronization, where time can beshared with the required accuracy and cost in anytime,
anywhere, and by anyone, and physical position can also be
determined accordingly. In order to install atomic clock in
mobile terminal, it is necessary to reduce the size and costof the atomic clock. Additionally, the architecture is also
required that can utilize a large number of atomic clocks
via autonomous and distributed supply technology of timeand reference frequency (Fig. 2.2-6).

Fig. 2.2-6 Miniaturization of the Oscillation Circuit
for Atomic Clocks(a) Conventional Quartz Oscillator Type Microwave
Oscillator(b) Bullet Ant (Body length 7 mm - 12 mm)(c) Newly Developed Microwave Oscillator(5) Digital Optics Technology
R & D of t e c h n o l o g i e s f o r s y s t e m s t h a t c a p t u r e

infor mation as-is through three-dimensional image
sensing are being conducted globally. Such systems coverlife science, material science, industry, art, and everyday
life. The field of natural light holography sensing has
advanced with the emergence of Fresnel Incoherent
Correlation Holography (FINCH). Currently, there isvibrant R&D of it, broadly divided into applications
for microscopes, cameras, and wavef ront sensors.
The Ben-Gurion University in Israel, led by J. Rosen,
originally proposed FINCH and its application in threedimensional f luorescence microscopes. Cu r rently,
they are focusing on fundamental research such as
improvements in the theoretical spatial resolution andthree-dimensional tomographic measurements. They
are also expanding international networks, collaboratingwith A. Vijayakumar at the University of Tartu in Estonia
and S. Juodkazis at Swinburne University in Australia.
G. Brooker, another inventor of FINCH, established theventure company CellOptic, Inc., offering the market
a 3D fluorescence microscope device based on FINCH
with a resolution of about 100 nm. Also, T.-C. Poon’s
group at Virginia Tech University has been continuously
conducting R&D of holography using a single-pixel
sensor for over 40 years. They are emphasizing activities
with i nter nat ional net work s, prog ressi ng th roug hcollaborations with China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong.
In Japan, the number of research bases has greatly
increased with the emergence of FINCH. Japan is one of
the countries with the highest number of research basesin natural light digital holography in the world. Kobe
University Professor Matoba’s group is actively applying
it in the field of f luorescence microscopy. Professor
Takagi’s group at Tokyo University of Agriculture andTechnology has opened up new measurement applications
by proposing its use in endoscopes. NICT has succeededin the world’s first development and demonstration ofa full-color holography movie recording and playback
system using sunlight. They are also developing a new
portable wavefront sensor system.
The development and application of transparent opticalscreens are also progressing (Fig. 2.2-7). An AR-HUD forvehicles is being developed as a promising application fortransparent optical screens using hologram technology.
Since 2016, auto parts manufacturer Continental AG has
been advancing collaborations with DigiLens Inc., which
has holographic projection technology. DigiLens Inc.
established unique hologram light guide plate display
tech nolog y. Star t-up company Ceres Holog raphics
Ltd. is also aiming to establish its own optical screen
development technology. In Japan, remote and contactlesstechnologies have been greatly focused on due to theglobal coronavirus pandemic. Significant progress has
been made in the practical application of the aerial display
technology, which has been started before COVID-19

─12 ─

Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

pandemic. Asukanet Co., Ltd. and Parity Innovations Co.
Ltd. have developed technologies to display images in
mid-air away from touch panels or monitors. Both started
providing aerial displays with non-contact interfaces incollaboration with various businesses and municipalities
between 2020 and 2021. Also, their technologies havebeen implemented in self-checkout registers used atconvenience stores and bookstores through collaboration
with private companies.

infrastructure (a society realized by NTN), as the impactof space weather becomes more serious, it will be essential
to take measures according to space weather forecasts.
Space weather forecast will be required on a daily basis,
like conventional weather forecast in order to responseto the social needs such as dealing with satellite charging
and orbital changes of communication satellite for mega
constellations, which are indispensable in the B5G era,
dealing with radiation and communication failures in thedevelopment of private spacecraft and space travel, anddealing with satellite positioning failures in autonomous
driving and drones, which are spreading in various
industrial fields (Fig. 2. 2-8).

Space weather forecast aﬀecting GNSS
Fig. 2.2-7 Transparent full-color animation 3D display for AR

Sun ＞
Eruptive

2.2.3 Future Prospects
As stated at the beginning of this chapter, electromagnetic
wave utilization technologies that suppor t the next
ge ne r at io n of s o cia l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e w i l l b e c ome
increasingly important. With respect to future prospects,
it is expected that fusion of communication and sensing,interdisciplinary movements such as the introduction ofquantum technology, and R&D of space weather which
may have a significant impact on ICT infrastructure, willcontinue to advance. Also, it is important to integratethese technologies and incorporate them in society. For
example, information from these technologies should lead
to behavioral changes of people.
Radio waves for communication, which are increasingly
used in Beyond 5G/6G society, can be used and applied not
only for communication but also for sensing. In the future,
examinations on systems that integrate communicationand sensing are expected to progress. Machine learning
is already being used and expected to expand in various
ways, such as for short-term rainfall prediction, data
quality control, data compression and restoration, and data
analysis.
Detection sensitivity of LIDAR using single-photon
detectors will be improved by utilization of quantum
technology.
In a future society with further development of space

Lv. 2
Solar ﬂare＞

Magnetosphere ＞

Ionosphere ＞

Quiet
Quiet

Quiet

Quiet

Quiet

Lv. 1

Lv. 1

Lv. 1

Lv. 1

Lv. 1

Solar proton＞

Geomagnetic＞
disturbanceRadiation belt＞
electrons

Ionospheric storm＞

Dellinger
phenomenon ＞

ActiveLv. 3

Sporadic-Elayer＞

Fig. 2.2-8 Space Weather Forecast CenterOn the other hand, in response to changes in the radio
interference from electronic and electrical appliances
due to future technology developments, the advancementof t he com mu n icat ion a nd broa dca st i ng systems,
and changes in lifestyle, it is expected that R&D ofelectromagnetic noise evaluation technology, which shouldbe the core of industrial development, will continue toprogress in order to constantly maintain an appropriate
electromagnetic environment. The promotion of R&D ofbasic infrastructure technologies for accurately evaluating
human exposure from low frequency waves to terahertz
waves, etc., is expected to continue to maintain a safe andsecure radio usage environment both domestically andinternationally.
The space-time synchronization technology willrealize the level of time accuracy that GNSS does gamechange and will become basis for delay-guaranteedcommunication, cryptographic communication, quantum
communication, and so on. In order to widely distributethe benef its of quant um computation and quant um

─13 ─The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

cr y ptog raphy, qu a nt u m t ra nsm ission will be also
necessary. To realize quantum transmission, it is essential
to share stable time, at the level of an optical clock,between two locations. It is also expected that the methodof supplying time will change drastically when space-timesynchronization is realized.
I n t e r m s of n at u r a l l ig ht holog r a phy s e n si ng,
many research results are seen at the stage just beforeb r e a k t h r ou g h r e s e a r ch p r og r e s s a nd a p pl ic at io ndevelopme nt. M ic roscopy a nd wavef ront se n si ng
technologies, proposed at the dawn of this field, havealready been put into practical use in new measuring
instruments. The XR market, including transparent opticalscreen AR displays, is expected to have a market sizeof about 3 billion dollars in Japan and about 160 billion
dollars worldwide in 2023, and is expected to continue togrow in the future.

2.3 Communication Network Infrastructure
T h e f u n d a m e n t a l p e r fo r m a n c e r e q u i r e m e n t s ofcommunication network infrastructure, such as broadband
wide area communication, low latency, and high reliability,
are increasing over time. In order to realize these, R&D
to enhance basic and system technologies such as opticalcommunication, wireless communication (terrestrial andsatellite), and networking are essential in every generation.
Indeed, in the transition from 4G to 5G and to Beyond
5G, the basic direction remains the same, while the goals
and functions are more sophisticated, and functions
with new vectors are added. Here, we take an overview
of the environment surrounding the communication
network infrastructure desired in Beyond 5G, the current
R&D trends, and future prospects to realize the society
expected between 2030 and 2050. Fig. 2.3-1 shows theoverall picture of the future communication infrastructure
targeted in this section. On the ground, there are wirelesssystems, and in the cloud and near users, there arecomputing devices and storage devices (server computers).
These devices are virtualized and shared among multiple
services. Optical fibers connect devices that make up trunklines and base stations, and between server clusters insideand outside of data centers. In the sky, there are dronesand HAPS, and even higher, non-geostationary satellites
and geostationary satellites serve as relay points in thecommunication network, and they can also communicate
directly with users. In the sky, not only wireless but also
optical communications appear. There is a limit to theamount of data that can be carried by radio waves, and it is
the optical communication technology with overwhelming
data transfer capacity supports it.

Fig. 2.3-1 Future Communication Network Infrastructure

2.3.1 Background
For internet access at home, network access was about
9.6 kbps with a modem when the internet began to be
spread for consumer use in the 1990s. Since then, accessspeed has increased using ISDN, ADSL, CATV, FTTH,
etc., and now, 10 Gbps optical access services are available.
Over this period, communication speed has increased by amillion times.
In the optical backbone network that supports suchhigh-speed communication, the transmission capacity
per fiber reached 10 Gbps in the 1990s, 1 Tbps in the
2000s, and 10 Tbps in the 2010s, increasing by morethan a thousand times in 20 years. During this period,
te ch nolog ies such a s t i me d iv ision mu lt iplex i ng,
wavelength division multiplexing, simultaneous wideband
optical amplification technology, quadrature amplitude
modulation and demodulation technology, and digital
signal processing technology have matured.
Regarding wireless access, Wi-Fi, which appeared in
1999 as an 11 Mbps standard (IEEE802.11b), has become
9.6 Gbps in the IEEE 802.11ax standard established in
2021, about 1000 times faster in 20 years. orthogonalfrequency division multiplexing, quadrature amplitude
modulation and demodulation technology, and MIMO
technology have matured.
The communication speed of mobile communication
systems has increased by a hundred thousand times inabout 20 years, from 64 kbps in 2G (digitalization) in the
1990s to 384 kbps (3G), from 100 Mbps to 1 Gbps (4G),
and to 10 Gbps in the 5G era. Technologies such as highfrequency support, quadrature amplitude modulation/
demodulation technology, and MIMO technology havematured, and the concept of functional separation has
permeated.
For satellite communication, high throughput satellite
communication systems (HTS) started being launched withgigabit per second geostationary HTSs in around 2004, witha 10 Gbps HTS launched in 2005 and a 100Gbps class HTS
launched in 2012 84). Recently, the communication capacity
has increased to hundreds of Gbps. Some operators areplanning to launch terabit satellites from 2023 onwards.

─14 ─

Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

As for net work sof t ware, recom mendations andstandards based on documents were the main focus in thepast, but the availability as open-source software has been
rising. For example, multiple open-source software for 5G
has been released and is available.
When consumer use of the Internet began, the onpremises type, where users or their organizations installed
ser ver computers and software for access, was themainstream. However, cloud services began in the mid2000s, and virtualization technology advanced in the2010s, accelerating the use of computers, storage, andsoftware in the cloud. Some mobile services have started
using cloud software instead of their own.
In Japan, the percentage of houses that can use ultrahigh-speed broadband such as FTTH was 99.98% in
2015. For mobile communications, the number of 4G
subscriptions exceeded the population, and the 5G
coverage rate was 93.2% as of March 2022 85) 86).
Going forward toward Beyond 5G, wireless access is
expected to increase tenfold and the backbone network is
expected to increase a hundredfold in capacity, as indicatedin MIC’s Beyond 5G Promotion Strategy, etc. To address
this, we need to aim for a thousand-fold improvement at
the R&D level. Furthermore, as will be discussed later,
the aerial network is expected to provide communication
paths with a wide range and low latency, and the provisionof a terabit per second three-dimensional network between
nodes is expected.

2.3.2 Current Research and Development Trends
Here, we focus on spatially multiplexed optical fiber
communication and non-terrestrial networks to discuss the
R&D trends.
As one type of spatially multiplexed optical fibercom mu nications, R&D of multi- core optical f ibertransmission, in which multiple optical paths are provided
in a single optical fiber are progressing. The progress of
its transmission capacity is remarkable. In March 2011,
NICT achieved a world record transmission capacity of
109 Tbps. In September 2012, NTT updated the record to 1
Pbps. Later, in September 2015, NICT achieved 2.15 Pbps.
In September 2017, KDDI further updated the world record
to 10.16 Pbps. Not only the capacity but also the distance isbeing challenged, and in September 2013, NTT and KDDIachieved a capacity-distance product of 1 Exa bps × km. In
March 2020, NICT achieved 10.66 Pbps with 38 core fibers
and 172-Tbps 2040-km transmission with coupled 3 corefibers.
As for multimode optical f iber t ransmission, in
September 2019, KDDI demonstrated a world record
transmission capacity of 407 Tbps using a 10-mode fiber

for a standard cladding diameter (125 micrometers). Later,in September 2020, NICT achieved a transmission capacityof 1.01 Pbps with a standard cladding diameter 15 mode
fiber, the first for a multimode fiber. In recent years, as achallenge to multimode, in September 2022, NICT achieved
1.53 Pbps in the C band using a standard cladding diameter
55 mode fiber. Furthermore, aiming at early practical use,
NICT has been breaking the records of standard cladding
diameter optical fiber transmission with an cladding
diameter of international-standard 125 micrometers. For
example, the following results have been achieved.
• June 2021: Achieved a world record capacity-distanceproduct for standard cladding diameter fibers (319 Tbps
x 3001 km = 957 Pbps km). The highest at the timewas 881 Pbps km (single-mode fiber) by TE Subcom[September 2017].
• May 2022: Successfully conducted a large capacitytransmission experiment of 1 Pbps with a standard
cladding diameter 4 core optical fiber. Used a frequency
band of 20 THz (801 wavelengths) 87) .
• March 2023: Successfully conducted a large capacitytransmission experiment of 1.7 Pbps with a standard
cladding diameter 19 core optical fiber.
Nex t , we d e s c r i b e t h e t r e nd s i n r e s e a r ch a n dd evelo p me nt of no n - t e r r e s t r ia l ne t wo r k s. C h i n a
successfully launched the practice (Shijan) 20 satellite
at the end of December 2019. This satellite is equipped
w it h a n opt ical satellite com mu n icat ion f u nct ion
with a transmission speed of 4.5 Gbps. NASA (USA)successfully performed optical communication fromthe moon exploration satellite LADEE to the groundat 622 Mbps in 2013, and in 2014, experiments wereconducted ISS equipped with the optical communication
device OPALS. In addition, they launched the Light Data
Relay Satellite System (LCRD) into a geostationary orbit
in the 2021 fiscal year, which provides communication
at a speed of 1.244 Gbps. ESA (Europe) installed acoherent communication optical communication device
produced by Ger many’s TESAT, which operates ata wavelength of 1.06 μm, on geostationary satellites
Alphasat, EDRS, and Sentinel series, and they havebeen continuously conducting demonstration tests using
satellites such as Sentinel-1A, Sentinel-1B, EDRS-A, etc.
DLR (Germany) developed small optical communication
terminals OSIRIS as a series, and is conducting opticalcommunication experiments at a wavelength of 1550
nm installing them in the Flying Laptop satellite andother satellites launched in 2017. There are also otherexamples.
Looking at private companies, SpaceX (USA) isadvancing the Starlink project, a large-scale satellite
constellation plan in low earth orbit (LEO). It is planned to─15 ─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

equip the next generation of satellite groups, known as ver.
2, with inter-satellite optical communication functions. In
Amazon’s (USA) satellite internet project Kuiper, Amazon
is leading the development of satellites and user terminals
for LEO constellations. In addition, its affiliated company,
Blue Origin, is developing rockets, and AWS is providing
not only cloud services but also pay-as-you-go services forsatellite ground stations.
I n Japan, the Space ICT Promotion For u m wasestablished in 2020 as part of a system to promote research,development, and utilization of innovative technologies inJapan based on the revision of the Basic Space Plan (satellite
development and demonstration platform construction) 88).
It aims to form a private community in the space field,
which is showing new developments, and it includes awide range of stakeholders, including companies fromdifferent industries and venture companies. As a place todiscuss the direction of initiatives in Japan through theunderstanding of the latest trends and consideration of
future strategies, and as a private forum that can respondto and reinforce government movements, the numberof members as of March 2023 has exceeded 160. In thisforum, domestic communication operators are sharing thefollowing concepts:
Space Compass envisages space RAN and space data
centers, planning for optical data relay services in 2024
and HAPS services in 2025. NTT DoCoMo and SoftBankeach envision a service that combines terrestrial systems
with HAPS, low Earth orbit satellites, and geostationary
satellites, aiming to cover the entire domestic area directlywith smar t phones for HAPS. K DDI star ted mobile
services using Starlink with LEO satellites in addition togeostationary satellite services in 2022, and they plan toexpand to offshore areas. Rakuten Mobile is promoting
the Space Mobile plan, envisioning direct communication
between satellites and terminals covering all of Japan with
LEO satellites.

2.3.3 Future Prospects
The communication network infrastructure contributes tothe stabilization of social life through its advancement andhigh performance. For example, as mentioned in Section
2.1.3, it is essential to build an orchestrator so that services
can be smoothly conducted throughout the network.
However, to cope with the declining birth rate and theincreasing number of devices connected to the network,
it is important to facilitate the control and operation oflarge-scale networks. For this purpose, it is necessary toachieve automation level 4 through autonomous distributed
cooperation among multiple Ais. This automation
contributes to the service performance maintenanceand improvement of Beyond 5G networks in the 2030s,
prevention of equipment failure, and instant avoidanceof negative effects. Also, while the utilization of digital
twins is promising across society, in order to effectively
use the limited frequency resources and quickly establish awireless environment in undeveloped areas, it is necessary
to construct a wireless system in the cyber-physical space,provide radio wave models and orbits of radios, etc., andprovide wireless emulator technology that can verify thewireless system without measuring and evaluating thereal wireless environment and put this into full use by
the 2030s. Furthermore, in order to solve the depletionof wireless resources by utilizing other resources, it isnecessary to realize a short- and medium-range terabit
access ICT infrastructure that harmoniously uses lightwaves and radio waves by around 2040.
In the following, we further present prospects forincreasing the capacity of the terrestrial backbone networkand expanding the communication range.
Spatial multiplexing optical fiber communication isessential for the backbone lines of mobile communication
networks, broadband networks, and data center networks.
When the start of domestic 5G services in 2020 is regarded
as the reference and, the communication capacity of the
backbone network must increase tenfold in 10 years 100
times are needed by 2040. It should be at least 1,000
times that to establish a buffer, and if the communication
capacity per fiber of the backbone network in 2020 is 10
Tbps (see 2.3.1), it is necessary to have a backbone networkon the order of tens of petabits in 2040. Optical fiber
communication technology utilizing spatial and wavelengthdomains is indispensable for that. Also, since it is still
difficult to imagine that the growth of communication
demand will stop, continuous R&D is essential. To solve
such problems, technologies such as spatial multiplexing,
broad banding, and long-distance communication are stillrequired. The advancement of these technologies willrealize large-capacity implementation of international
communication, data centers, and terrestrial trunk lines.
Non-terrestrial networks will become new media
through as coverage extension lines, extreme delay
ser vices, a nd back up li nes. A rou nd 2030, newapplications using LEO constellation services, low delay(HAPS within 1 millisecond and low orbit satellites
that communicate with the ground in several tens of
milliseconds), and wide coverage will be more readily
available. Services where user terminals communicate
directly not only with ground stations but also with
HAPS and LEO satellites will also expand. Also, inthe 2030s, a communication service environment thatconnects seamlessly through 3D integrated network
control will be realized. Various high-altitude optical─16 ─

Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areassatellite communications will advance, and services
w it h w ider ba ndw idt h w ill also expa nd. As N T N
spreads in the future, there are concer ns about theexhaustion of wireless frequencies. For this reason,a rou nd 20 40, a system for 3D f requency sha r i ng
targeting radio equipment operated in the sky will likely
be institutionalized in a form in which the existing
frequency sharing framework is enhanced.
Fu r t her more, R&D of dev ices t hat suppor t
c o m mu n ic a t io n n e t wo r k i n f r a s t r u c t u r e a r e a l s oimportant. In response to the computational processing
capabilities and increasing communication performancerequired in information and communication, new device
development is also underway. Details are discussed in
Section 2.4.
From the perspective of next-generation communication
network infrastructure, the trends in the field of quantum
ICT, where R&D are cur rently under way, are also
important. The infrastructure supporting today’s Internet
has developed while each wired and wireless network
brings about technological innovation, but quantum ICT
technology is expected to bring about a more fundamental
innovation. The trends in this field will be covered in
Section 2.6.

2.4 ICT Device Technology
I n t he f ield of i n for m at ion a nd c om mu n ic at ion ,improvements in information processing capabilities
and high-speed, high-capacity communication continues
to be pursued. Although discussions on the limits andnecessity are always carried out in parallel, the increasein demand and capabilities continues to advance without
stopping. While discussions on necessity will continue
to be necessary, progress is expected to continue dueto the cloudification of information systems, advancesin IoT and AI, and the spread of 5G to Beyond 5G. The
foundation for improving the performance of informationand communication systems lies in the devices (ICT
devices) used. Not only improvements in traditional device
performance, but also the integration between devices
using different technologies and the utilization of newdevices that are not bound by conventional concepts are
eagerly awaited.
In this chapter, we discuss R&D trends for ICT devices
to realize more advanced information and communication
infrastructure.

2.4.1 Background(1) High-speed and large-capacity information
processing and communication
With the progression of cloudification, IoT, AI, and the
expansion of 5G, high-speed and large-capacity dataprocessing capabilities are required in data centers (DC)and high-performance computers (HPC). In addition,
toward the expansion of multimedia services, the increasein mobile traffic, and the realization of cyber-physicalsystems (CPS) proposed in Society 5.0, ultra-high-speed
and large-capacity information communication is required.
In response to these social demands, the introduction
and spread of 5G is progressing, and research on Beyond
5G/6G as the next-generation wireless communication
technology is becoming active. AI-based automateddriving systems are expected to help solve current carrelated issues such as accident prevention and congestion
mitigation. For f ut ure autonomous vehicles, radar/
LiDAR, etc., will be installed and highly accurate distancemeasurements will be required in real-time. In addition,from the perspective of time-space synchronization,
which is important for the realization of CPS, it will benecessary to install a precise clock in an easy-to-carryform, and a small and highly stable (low noise) signal
sources that are commonly needed for them will be
required. On the other hand, when response is made todata processing capabilities and communication speeds,
keeping conventional devices as they are, the required
power consumption will only increase. It will be necessary
to increase processing performance while suppressing an
increase in power consumption.
(2) Utilization of unused frequency bands andexpansion of usage scenarios
In achieving high-speed processing and communication,
if the range (usage environment and supported frequency
bands) that ICT devices can handle can be expanded, it
is possible to expand the utilization range or improve
performance. As the electromagnetic waves that ICT
devices process, terahertz waves demanded that areintermediate frequency bands of radio waves and lightthat have been traditionally used. Also, conventional
semiconductor electronic devices, which are widely usedin ICT devices, have difficulty operating under hightemperatures or strong radiation, so high-performance
ICT devices that can operate even in such extreme
environments are also required.
In addition, light with a wavelength shorter than 280
nm, which is in the UVC region, is all absorbed by theozone layer in the atmosphere and does not exist in thenatural world (it is not found in sunlight that reaches
the ground), so it is called the solar blind region. As

─17 ─The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

such, it is expected that it can be used for optical spacecommunications and sensing that are not affected by
the background noise from sunlight. Also, the DNA oforganisms that has evolved in a natural environment
without deep ultraviolet light has a strong absorption
structure in the UVC region, and it is anticipated thatby using deep ultraviolet LEDs, effective sterilizationand inactivation of harmful bacteria and viruses without
the use of chemicals like chlorine, refinement of photoprocessing and 3D printers, hardening of resins, printing,decomposition of environmental pollutants, spectroscopic
analysis, and medical applications, and others are expected
to play a significant role in diverse technical areas.

2.4.2 Current Research and Development Trends(1) ICT Devices Targeting the Utilization of New
Frequency Bands
Research on Beyond 5G/6G is becoming more active. The
enhanced functionalities of 5G, such as ultra-high speed,large capacity, ultra-low latency, and ultra-numerous
connectivity are expected to be realized by wirelesscommunication technology in high-frequency bands such as
the terahertz band. The terahertz wave, an electromagnetic
wave that has a frequency between radio waves and lightand combines the characteristics of both, requires anapproach and integration of both electronics and photonics.
Research on terahertz band wireless communication circuit
technology using Si CMOS, which is suitable for mass
production and widespread use, is becoming more active
both domestically and internationally (Fig. 2.4-1). For
example, Intel in the United States has developed a 150 GHz
band wireless receiver chip and demonstrated performanceat a communication speed of 128 Gb/s. In Japan, the Tokyo
Institute of Technology and NTT’s group is developing
a 300 GHz band wireless transceiver chip, and NICT isdemonstrating beam steering technology in 300 GHz band
wireless communication. As for high-power GaN devices,
Sumitomo Electric has a top share for 5G base stationtransistor applications, and NICT has reported the highest
maximum oscillation frequency in Japan (see Appendix C-21). R&D are being conducted at many institutions abroad,including HRL Laboratories, the University of Notre
Dame, and Rockwell Scientific Company. For high-stability
signal sources essential for high-frequency systems like theterahertz band, there are optical frequency combs, whichhave evolved from solid-state laser-generated combs to fiber
laser-based ones and even to optically modulated combs forwhich NICT also possesses the technology. Recently, R&D
on micro-optical combs (μ-combs) using miniature opticalresonators for even higher portability have been advancing
abroad. In Japan, work is underway by NICT, Keio

University, and Tokushima University as well as by Osaka
University, who is collaborating with IMRA America, Inc.
For light source devices in the deep ultraviolet frequency
band, mercury lamps have been mainly used industrially.
Although mercury lamps are high-output and inexpensive andare still widely used, they are environmentally burdensome
products that contain mercury, which is harmful to humans
and the environment. In order to eliminate mercury, theMinamata Convention on Mercury has come into effect,and since 2020, gradual restrictions have begun on the
manufacture and import and export of products containing
mercury. Therefore, expectations for deep ultraviolet LEDs as
new, compact, low environmental load light sources to replacemercury lamps have skyrocketed. However, mercury lamps
still have an overwhelming advantage in both light output
and cost, and a situation where they are fully replaced has notbeen reached. In the future, to respond to UVC high-output
needs for optical communication applications, sterilization
applications (virus inactivation) such as water purification andinfection prevention, photo-processing, and mercury lamp
replacement while keeping costs down, the major issue is
how to increase the light output of deep ultraviolet LEDs per
chip. There is fierce competition in R&D for the issue aroundthe world, including in Europe, the United States, China, andSouth Korea.

Fig. 2.4-1 Terahertz Band Wireless Communication
Technology(2) ICT Devices Utilizing New Materials
The R&D of organic devices that potentially allow theflexible design of composition and properties are being
advanced as opposed to inorganic material devices thathave been primarily used for traditional ICT devices.
Important applications include fast light modulation,
elect ro - opt ic conve r sion , a nd t he gene r at ion a nd
reception of terahertz waves. The R&D of thin-film LN,

─18 ─Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

Number of papers published

Si, InP, and electro-optical polymer (EOP) hybrid opticalmodulators are progressing as fast optical modulators(Table 2.4-1).
These types of fast optical modulators have different
modulation characteristics (bandwidth, VπL), levels of
optical loss, device footprints, etc., depending on theapplications and uses. Therefore, there is a situation where
they cannot serve as an ideal optical modulator for all
applications and uses due to a single material or device
structure. In the future, it is assumed that there will bedifferentiation depending on applications and uses. These
high-speed optical modulators are core devices of opticalinformation communication, and the competition is fierce
for R&D in Japan, the United States, and Europe.

(year)

Table 2.4-1 Types of High-Speed Optical Modulators
Optical modulators Thin-film LN
Bandwidth[GHz]
VπL[V• cm]Si

InP

EOP hybrid

–50

–40

–80

>100

2

0.2–2

0.8

0.03–0.3

Fig. 2.4-2 Number of Papers Published in
the Gallium Oxide Device Field

As high-speed wireless communication utilization, formethods that use terahertz modulators to directly convert
terahertz signals into optical signals, for instance, atransmission experiment at the 100 GHz band at 70 Gbit/s
using a THz modulator with a thin-film LN, and direct
terahertz modulation from 100 to 375 GHz using an EOP
THz modulator have been reported.
As a spatial light modulator (OPA), research on methods
using organic EO polymers (EOP-OPA) is progressing.
Compared to methods using silicon (Si-OPA) and Liquid
Crystal on Silicon (LCOS), higher performance in terms of
optical scanning speed and power consumption is expected(Appendix C-2-2). R&D of EOP-OPA are primarily being
conducted in Japan (NHK Science & Technology ResearchLabs and NICT), and given the specialized nature of thedevice manufacturing process, it is believed that Japan cantake the lead in this field.
Gallium oxide (Ga 2O3) is a new semiconductor device
that is expected to be used in high-efficiency powerelectronics devices and extreme environments with highradiation. In this field, pioneering device research was
conducted by Dr. Higashiwaki at NICT (at that time), andthere has been a significant increase in the number ofacademic papers published since 2012, but the number of
papers in the last 2 years has been consistent at just under
500 per year (Fig. 2.4-2). It is widely recognized as a new
semiconductor field and has seen a surge in R&D in recent
years, but recently there has been a sense of calm. The
current general direction of R&D in the Ga2O3 field is asfollows:

In terms of bulk single crystal growth of β-Ga 2 O 3 ,which corresponds to the most stable crystal structure, thelargest wafer manufacturer, Novel Crystal Technology,
Inc., sells wafers of up to 4 inches on the market. Also, asa new development, C&A Corporation, a venture company
originating from Tohoku University, has reported bulk
single crystal Ga 2O3 growth using a new crystal growthmethod that does not use precious metal crucibles. On theother hand, the progress of thin-film epitaxial growth isremarkable with metal-organic chemical vapor deposition(MOCVD) technology.
Device development has become more active in China,
in addition to Japan and the United States, and there
have been more transistor and diode development results
announced in the last two years than ever before (Appendix
C-2-3).

2.4.3 Future Prospects
B y t h e 2 03 0 s , R & D of t e r a h e r t z b a n d w i r e l e s scommunication infrastructure technologies are expected
to bear fr uit. With the implementation of the ultrahigh speed, large capacity, ultra-low latency, and ultranumerous connectivity features of Beyond 5G/6G, it isanticipated that a society where anyone can benefit fromultra-fast information communication will be realized
through the use of technologies such as terahertz band
MIMO wireless LAN and high-precision video (8K)
wireless distribution and transmission technology (Fig.
2.4-3). However, to achieve this goal, there are several
challenges, such as increasing the output of transmitters,developing packaging technologies that support multipleelement antennas, and developing signal synchronization
methods. In terms of these technical challenges, there is a

─19 ─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

need for technology integration in the electronics field (SiCMOS + compound semiconductor hybrid), integration
with wireless communication technologies established
up to 5G, and the establishment of fusion technologies
with the photonics field. Additionally, it is consideredthat Japan, which has many excellent manufacturers ofmaterials such as dielectrics, should plan differentiation bymaterial.

GHz electromagnetic waves is also being targeted while
the realization of an optical phase array (OPA) with visible
light, which is required for new information communication
technologies such as 3D image reproduction and smart
glasses, is also expected (Fig. 2.4-4).

Fig. 2.4-4 Prospects of Organic Material ICT Devices
Fig. 2.4-3 Future Usage Scenarios for Ultra-High-Speed
Wireless

In the field of deep ultraviolet (DUV) light devices,
it is envisioned that the benefits of DUV LED device
technology, which offers low environmental impact andhigh output in a small, portable format, will be utilized tobring about revolutionary technological innovations forlife and social infrastructures in a wide range of sectors,
spanning from optical information and communication
f ields to medicine, the environment, industr y, anddisinfection fields. For instance, it is anticipated thatthe dramatic expansion of the light frequency resourcesthat can be used for optical information communication
technologies and innovative communication technologiess u ch a s no n -l i n e - of- sig ht ( N L OS) o pt ic a l s p a c ecommunications, which cannot be achieved with traditional
visible and infrared light technologies, will be realized.
Along with the increase in such applications, it is expectedthat technological development aimed at further improving
the performance, functionality, and reliability of small
DUV solid light sources will progress. This should lead tofurther sophistication of foundational device technologies
for advanced DUV ICT utilization, such as DUV laser
diodes and ultra-high sensitivity sensing devices.
In ter ms of organic material ICT devices, alongwith aiming for the realization of 200 Gbaud (100 GHzband) and drive voltages below 1V for speeding up
data communication and high-efficiency conversion
between light and wireless in terahertz modulators foraccelerating wireless communication, high-speed, largecapacity, and low-latency transmission using 100-400

In the field of gallium oxide devices, it is necessary
to concurrently explore solutions for the challenge ofdesigning device structures without using p-Ga 2 O 3 ,which possesses hole conductivity, while also diligently
advancing the development of foundational technologies
for bulk/thin-film crystal growth and device processes
with future applications in mind. This includes, in termsof materials, the need to address fundamental challenges
such as increasing the size and qualit y of wafers,
controlling the conductivity of epitaxial thin films,
heterostructures, and controlling surfaces and interfaces.
Additionally, in the development of device processes,
extensive work is required on substrate and epitaxial
layer etching techniques, gate insulating films, edge
termination, and more.

2.5 Cybersecurity
The rapid increase in cyber attacks is an urgent issue
of national importance. In the field of cybersecurity,
it is crucial to collect large amounts of data related tocyber attacks and to cultivate experts who can analyze
these data and respond appropriately. However, inJapan, the primary approach has been to adopt anduse foreign security products and technologies. This
has led to stagnation in R&D due to the inability toaccumulate k now-how and insights related to coretechnologies, causing a decline in the self-sufficiencyof security products and technologies. Based on theawareness of this issue, this chapter will provide an
overview of trends in cybersecurity, as well as trends in
R&D related to cybersecurity. We will discuss how we─20 ─Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

should approach R&D to improve Japan’s cybersecurity
capabilities.

2.5.1 BackgroundThe environment around cybersecurity is changing rapidly.
The following points will be discussed:
1. Increasing threats in cyberspace
2. IoT devices misused for cyber attacks
3. The evolution of social engineering
4. AI and cybersecurity
5. Technology transition towards the era of quantum
computing(1) Increasing Threats in Cyberspace
The outbreak of COVID-19 since 2020 has significantly
changed people’s lives. As teleworking and online businessactivities increase, the targets of cyber attacks are also
increasing. In Japan, the NICTER Project 89) conducted
by NICT continuously monitors communication packets
arriving at approximately 300,000 unused IP address
spaces (darknets) both in Japan and overseas. The numberof these packets is an indicator of the extent of malicious
activities on the Internet, such as malware infections. The
annual total number of monitored packets per address in
the large-scale cyber attack monitoring network in the
NICTER project, as shown in Fig. 2.5-1, has increased
by 50% compared to the previous year in 2020, and has
remained at a high level 90).
While some cyber attacks aim at social and politicaltargets, there is an increase in economic and organizational
criminal activities targeting organizations, criticalinfrastr ucture, and nations. In 2022, 27% of cyberattacks had the goal of extortion. The most targeted
region is Europe, where cyber attacks are believed to be
taking advantage of geopolitical tensions. In particular,
ransomware attacks, which encrypt an organization’s data
and demand a ransom for decryption, are evolving. Not
only the recovery of encrypted files, but also threats to
expose confidential information and personal information
stolen from organizations to leak-sites on the dark web are
being used to intimidate and increase the ransom. This iscalled double extortion, and it is becoming more common
and is one of the causes for the increase in data leaks
due to ransomware attacks. Moreover, as ransomware
becomes a business model and more specialized (RaaS,
Ransomware as a Service), a new ecosystem has been
established. In this ecosystem, RaaS operators develop
and distribute packages that allow organizations without
the technical expertise to launch ransomware attacks.
They do this through attackers known as affiliates, whoare essentially “hired” to carry out the attacks. This hasformed an ecosystem where affiliates execute the attacks.
Also, duration of time to get a ransom has been shortened.
While it took over two months to get a ransom in 2019,it may take less than three days as of 2022, increasing
success rates at a lower cost. The targets of cyber attacks
are not only large corporations, but also diversifying,including small and medium-sized enterprises, public
institutions, and medical institutions.

(Number of packets, Unit: 10,000)

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Fig. 2.5-1 Total Annual Packets Per IP Address Observed
by NICTER (Past 10 Years)(2) IoT Devices Misused for Cyber Attacks
Inter net of Things (IoT) devices, such as inter netconnected devices, home appliances, and surveillancecameras, are becoming targets of cyber attacks. Fig.2.5-2shows the top ten main targets (destination port numbers)
observed by NICTER in 2022. The light blue portion of
the pie chart represents communications related to cyberattacks targeting IoT devices, such as web cameras andhome routers.
These IoT devices have characteristics that makethem vulnerable to cyber attacks, such as limited device
performance, insufficient serviceability, and long lifecycle.
If vulnerabilities exist in IoT devices, attackers can control
these devices to launch large-scale cyber attacks (DDoS
attacks), enabling them to amplify the attack. Particularly
in 2022, several digital video recorder products in Japan
were infected with a malware called Mirai, and thesedevices were misused as springboards for DDoS attacks.
Regarding the defect, through the aforementioned NICTER
project, the vulnerabilities of the devices were investigatedwith the cooperation of the product developers, and an
unknown vulnerability was revealed. It was also observedthat attacks that exploit the vulnerability are sent to only
the targeted devices with high precision. Rapid sharing
of information about incidents, countermeasures, raisingawareness, and prompt implementation of vulnerability
countermeasures to prevent the spread of damage are
becoming increasingly important.

─21─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

Fig. 2.5-2 Main Targets of Cyber Attacks (Destination Port
Numbers) in 2022 as Observed by NICTER(3) The Evolution of Social EngineeringSocial engineering is a method of attack that takes
advantage of human psychological tendencies and social
behavior, exploiting these vulnerabilities. Specifically, it isa method of obtaining information necessary for intrusion
without using advanced technology, compared to cyberattacks. This can include, for example, posing as a network
administrator, feigning urgency, and phoning the target
individual to extract their password. Phishing is a typeof social engineering where fake websites are created,inducing users to click the URL through emails or othermeans by making it indistinguishable from the real website,with the aim of stealing personal information such as user
IDs and passwords. In 2022, phishing remained the top
method of intrusion, accounting for 41% of incidents 91).
Un l i ke a t t a c k m e t h o d s t h a t e x ploit t e c h n ic a lvulnerabilities, social engineering attacks target humannature and social psychology. Therefore, approaches
from the perspectives of psychology, human factors, andpractical security are indispensable.
(4) AI and Cybersecurity
Methods of utilizing AI technology in cybersecurity
measures, such as automatic malware analysis and threat
detection/prediction, are advancing. At the same time,
there is a risk that AI technology could be misused formore sophisticated cyber attacks. For example, there
are concerns that attackers could use AI to improve theaccuracy of phishing attacks, enabling more effective
attacks. In addition, numerous attack methods against
AI itself have emerged, making the establishment of AI
security technology, which defends AI, an urgent task 92).
(5) Technology Transition towards the Era of Quantum
Computing
The current public-key cryptography will become lesssecure if large-scale quantum computers are realized.
The remarkable development of quantum computerswill become a significant threat from a cybersecurity

perspective. In preparation for this risk, the National
Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) in the UnitedStates initiated the standardization of new cryptographic
technology called Post Quantum Cryptography (PQC),
which can withstand attacks by quantum computers, in2016 93). In July 2022, multiple methods were announced
as the subject of standardization from among candidates
submitted from all over the world.
The challenge going forward is how to transition
from the current encryption methods to PQC. It will benecessary to replace all widely deployed cryptographic
modules, which will require significant costs and a longtransition period. On the other hand, the time whenquant um computers capable of decr y pting cu r rent
encryption are developed is fast approaching. Responding
to the transition is already an urgent issue.

2.5.2 Current Research and Development Trends
We will discuss the current R&D trends in the fieldof cybersecurity, focusing on several cybersecurityt e c h n ol og ie s a n d t h e u n d e r l y i n g c r y p t og r a p h i ctechnologies.
(1) Cybersecurity Technologies■ Data-Driven Cybersecurity Technologies
T he est ablish ment a nd adva ncement of followi ng
technologies are required: observational techniquesthat analyze cyber attacks from various angles based onreal data, visualization methods that aid in situational
understanding, and automated analysis and counteraction
tools utilizing AI technologies such as machine learning.
The observation and analysis results from the previously
m e nt io n e d N IC T E R p r oje c t a r e s h a r e d w it h t h egovernment and related organizations to aid in a response,and some of the results are also publicly available on the
NICTERWEB 94).
■ AI x Cybersecurity
To integrate AI technologies, such as machine learning,and cybersecurity technologies, following technologies
are currently under R&D: detection and analysis ofmalware campaigns on the internet, analysis of a large
amount of malware to infer its functionality, extractionof crucial alerts that truly require a response from thealert information reported by various security appliances,
detection of dangerous web pages from JavaScript oruser access history, and threat intelligence extraction
and analysis. These technologies obtain high-value
information in real time from the vast amount of collectedcybersecurity data.

─22 ─Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas■ Cyber Attack Observation Technology
In targeted attacks aimed at specific organizations, it isextremely rare for detailed information about the attack
to come from the affected companies or organizations,making it difficult to understand the actual situation oftargeted attacks and derive appropriate countermeasures.
As a method of observing what kind of behavior attackers
are exhibiting in the intrusion destination, it is possible tobuild a huge dummy network that intricately mimics a realorganization, lure attackers by running malware such as
targeted attacks, and observe them stealthily (Fig. 2.5-3).
The attribution of human attackers and the identification of
the true origin are possible by embedding beacons in the
dummy data.

■ Hardware Security Verification Technology toAddress Supply Chain Risks
With the spread of IoT devices and increasing supply chain
risks, the importance of technology to verify whether
a device has vulnerabilities or intentionally implanted
backdoors (hidden entrances that can be infiltrated fromthe outside) is growing. As an example, R&D of security
technologies in areas closer to hardware, such as firmware,
kernel modules, FPGA (Field-Programmable Gate Array),
IC chips, and sensor devices, are being conducted (Fig.
2.5-4).

Fig. 2.5-4 Hardware Security Verification Technology for
Addressing Supply Chain Risks
Fig. 2.5-3 The Targeted Attack Attraction Infrastructure
STARDUST■ 5G/Beyond 5G Security
Commercial use of 5G has begun, and networks with thecharacteristics of ultra-high-speed large capacity, highreliability and low latency, and multiple simultaneousconnections are beginning to spread. In 5G networks,a wide variety of devices are connected, and while therealization of various services such as autonomous driving,
remote medical care, smart agriculture, smart factories,
and high-definition video production is expected, concerns
about new security threats that were not anticipated in
the traditional environment are emerging due to theintroduction of new technologies.
In Japan, the R&D of joint 5G security testbed has
started in 2020 by KDDI, NTT Docomo, NEC, NICT, andothers. Within the communication network of NICT, a 5G
verification environment was built to conduct technicalverifications such as anticipating security threats in the
5G environment and perform modeling analyses andtake mitigation measures. The testbed includes a 5G core
network using the open-source software OpenAirInterface
and free5GC and a wireless access network with Software
Defined Radio (SDR) devices. The knowledge gained fromvarious verifications has been published by the Ministry ofInternal Affairs and Communications as the “5G Security
Guidelines” 95).

■ Usable Security
When considering security issues, the human perspective(users, system developers, and service providers) cannot
be ignored. Particularly, the usability of the system orservice is crucial when users are utilizing them. However,the system could become complex in order to ensure
security, potentially compromising usability, leading
to a typical trade-off relationship between security andusability. Therefore, the concept of usable security, which
ensures security without compromising the effectiveness,
efficiency, and satisfaction of users to achieve their
original goals becomes important. For instance, issues
include general users agreeing to privacy policies without
understanding them when downloading apps, or theinconvenience for people with physical disabilities insecurity authentication. Other ongoing R&D efforts
include appropriate methods of notifying general users
who are using vulnerable devices about security andcountermeasures, as well as methods to encourage user
behavior changes in the desired direction by utilizing
nudges.
(2) Cryptographic Technologies■ Cryptographic Technologies for Trusted Data Flow
DFFT (Data Free Flow with Trust) aims to ensure thecross-border f low of data to solve business and social
issues, promoting international free data f low while─23 ─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

ensuring trust for privacy, security, and intellectual
property rights. DFFT was advocated by Japanese Prime
Minister Abe (at the time) at the World Economic Forumannual meeting (Davos conference) held in Geneva,
Switzerland in January 2019, and it gained support fromworld leaders at the G20 Osaka Summit in June 2019,
resulting in its inclusion in the leader’s declaration. While
R&D on cryptographic technologies to ensure security
and privacy at every stage of data provision, collection,
storage, analysis, and deployment has been conducted
for a long time, the R&D of cryptographic techniquessuch as secret computation, which obtains computation
results while ensuring data confidentiality and privacy,
is a field where Japan excels. This is included in the third
phase of the Strategic Innovation Creation Program (SIP)in Japan. For example, collaborative machine learning
among independent nodes while preserving privacy has
been developed as a federated learning technique. This
technique has been utilized in demonstration experiments
conducted by NICT and several financial institutions,working towards solving societal issues such as moreaccurate detection of fraudulent transactions 96).
■ Cryptographic Technologies for the Quantum
Computing Era
In anticipation of an era where quantum computers areavailable, various countries are actively conducting
R&D on quantum cryptographic communication, postquantum cryptography, and the design, development,
safety assessment, and implementation of quantumresistant security protocols to establish secure systems
that can be safely used. Specifically, R&D are being
advanced on lattice-based cryptography and multivariate
public-key cryptography, which are expected to become
the global standards for post-quantum cryptography, andthe security assessment of widely used RSA encryption
and elliptic curve encryption. In Japan, based on theseachievements, safet y evaluations of cr y ptog raphy
recommended for e-government and considerations on
proper implementation methods and operational methodsof cryptographic technologies, are being conducted 97). For
quantum cryptographic communication, please refer to
Chapter 2.6.
■ Blockchain Security
In the Web3.0 era, blockchain technology is a coretechnology aiming to achieve a more decentralized, secure,and transparent web environment. Research on its security
is being actively conducted at academic conferences both
domestically and internationally. Notably, smart contracts
implemented on the blockchain and NFTs (Non-Fungible
Tokens) that guarantee the ownership of digital content andassets are attracting attention.

2.5.3 Future Prospects
I n order to st reng then Japan's i nter national
competitiveness in the cybersecurity field and avoid
dependence on foreig n secu r it y tech nologies that
suppor t t he ser v ices of gover n ment agencies a nd
key infrastr ucture operators, it is essential to havea d o m e s t ic e nv i r o n m e n t c a p a ble of g e n e r a t i n g ,accumulating, and providing cybersecurity information.
Furthermore, to protect the safety of society against theincreasing cybersecurity risks due to rapidly evolving
technologies, it is critical to have professionals withspecialized cybersecurity knowledge. However, there is
still a shortage of such professionals, and there is a needto further accelerate their development.
Based on such problem consciousness, in Japan, theCybersecurity Nexus (CYNEX) 98) was established in
April 2021, aiming to construct advanced infrastructurethat ser ves as a nexus of indust r y, academia, andgovernment, utilizing vast data related to cyber attacks
and expertise in human resource development. Thisinitiative is expected to improve Japan's cybersecurity
response capabilities by collecting, accumulating,analyzing, and providing cybersecurity information
domestically and providing a common platfor m fordeveloping cybersecurity talent across society.
I n r e c e nt ye a r s , cyb e r se c u r it y h a s b e c ome a n
increasingly important element for national security.
Considering that cyber attacks occur across borders
and that modern supply chains are deployed globally,
there are limits to independent responses by a single
orga n i z at ion or c ou nt r y, a nd g loba l c o op e r at ion
is ne e de d . For i n st a nce, t he re a re move me nt s t obuild a cooperative security relationship, including
for cyberspace, between the Nor th Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) and Japan. Building tr usting
relationships among stakeholders, sharing information,and building cooperative systems can realize more
ef fe ct ive me a s u r e s 9 9) . E st abl ish i ng a g loba l hub
for cybersecurity R&D is cr ucial for this pur pose.
T h is i nvolves ut ili z i ng t he neut r alit y of nat ional
research institutions, for example, and building close
relationships with overseas research institutions.

2.6 Quantum ICT
As mentioned in Chapter 1.2, R&D in the ICT fieldu s i n g q u a n t u m t e c h n ol o g i e s i s c u r r e n t l y b e i n gactively pursued in various regions around the world,
including Japan. These are challenging attempts toopen up entirely new ICT schemes that are not present
in traditional concepts by directly manipulating the─24 ─

Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

quant um mechanical proper ties of mat ter, such as
quantum entanglement and quantum interference. The
possibilities include quantum computing technologies
t hat enable la rge -scale super pa r allel i n for mat ion
processi ng, qu a nt u m i n for mat ion com mu n icat ion
technologies that realize functions not achievable withconventional communication, and quantum sensingt e ch n olog ie s t h a t r e a l i z e u lt i m a t e m e a s u r e m e nt
performance by utilizing quantum mechanical effects.
I n fa c t , q u a nt u m i nt e r net a s a for m of q u a nt u minformation communication and quantum computers
implementing quantum computing technologies are
attracting attention. On the other hand, fundamental
and ultimate technological innovations that require
going back to physical principles are necessary, andmany research groups are advancing R&D throughvar ious approaches f rom both theoretical andexperimental perspectives. This chapter focuses on(1) Quant um Computing Tech nology, (2) Quant um
Communication Technology, and (3) Quantum Device
Technology, and it provides a technological overview.

2.6.1 Background(1) Quantum Computing Technology
Many projects are being launched worldwide due topapers by Google claiming to implement a quantum
computer and perform information processing far fasterthan conventional computers and the roadmap presented
by IBM for large-scale quantum computers in the near
future. Recently, it was reported in Japan that a quantum
computer available for general use has been implemented.
These are quantum computers in the category known
as NISQ (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum), which
are experimentally available for use, such as throughcom mercial releases, but f rom t he perspect ive ofpractical quantum computers, sufficient performance
has not yet been achieved. There are numerous technicalrequirements to be met for implementing quantum bits,
the basic unit of quantum information processing, suchas enabling arbitrary operations and extending coherencetime sufficiently, but no method satisfying all of thesehas been found yet. Currently, efforts are being made to
maximize the performance of quantum bits in various
ways such as superconductivity, ions, light, and spin,
and we are at the stage of assessing their technologicalpotential. Note that significant improvements in accuracy
are being achieved through these efforts to improve
performance, leading to a reconsideration of traditional
concepts regarding the number of physical quantum bits
needed for error correction mechanisms and an intensecompetition in R&D is unfolding with the realizationof universal quantum computers 30 years from now inmind.
Q u a nt u m a n neali ng is one met hod of qu a nt u mcomputation. This is a method of information processing
using quantum bits, which was first commercializedby D-wave in Canada. These are sometimes positioned
as a type of quantum computer from the perspectiveof infor mation processing with quant u m bits, andthey theoretically have the same capacity as quantum
computers depending on the conditions, but on theot he r h a nd , whet he r c ombi n at or ia l opt i m i z at ion
problems, which are considered typical applications ofquantum annealing, can be solved more effectively thanwith conventional computers is not yet theoretically
clear, and there are many unknowns regarding theireffectiveness.
(2) Quantum Communication Technology
Quantum communication, which uses the propertiesof qu a nt u m mecha n ics, is a h ig h ly u sef u l secu recom mu nication tech nolog y for which infor mation
secrecy is needed because it can detect eavesdropping of
information based on the principles of quantum mechanics.
In particular, quantum cryptography makes the sharing ofsecret keys with absolute security possible and is alreadybeing used in practice. In fact, network-like testbeds forquantum cryptography are being planned or built on
optical fiber networks in Japan, the EU, the United States,
China, South Korea, and other countries, and the main
focus of applied research now shifts to how to implement
and use quantum cryptography networks as systems. On
the other hand, there is also the theoretical considerationthat the limit of the optical fiber communication distanceover which quantum cryptography can be exchanged isabout several hundred kilometers, which is a major factor
limiting the use cases for this technology, so technicalinnovations to address this are being explored.
Technology that conducts direct communication using
laser light without using optical fibers is one direction of
R&D because it can solve the maximum communication
distance problem, which is the biggest technical issue inquantum cryptographic communication. This technology is
being used in satellite-to-satellite secret communications,and China, which was the first in the world to realize
quantum cryptographic communication using satellites,
has a head start in terms of technical and experience.
(3) Quantum Device Technology
As R&D centered on the keyword “quantum” becomesincreasingly active globally, there are many approaches
to how to actually implement various quantum states indevices, but the presence of devices using superconducting

─25 ─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

phenomena is notably increasing. Superconducting
quantum bits realized using superconducting phenomena
are the most integrated in terms of integration among thenumerous quantum bit candidates, such as ions, light,
spin, and atoms, due to their excellent integrability andscalability.
The development of stable single-photon sources andhigh-sensitivity receivers, which are key technologies usedin quantum communication, is also progressing because
the technology for generating and detecting single photons
is extremely important. In particular, the superconducting
nanostrip single-photon detector (SNSPD), which uses
superconducting phenomena, not only has excellent
performance with high detection efficiency, low darkcount rate (low noise), high counting rate, and low jitterat communication wavelength bands, the technology tointegrate the elements on a substrate is progressing, it
is widely spreading in the field of quantum information
communication, and R&D towards practical use is ongoing(Fig. 2.6-1).

Fig. 2.6-1 Single Photon Detector Developed by NICT

2.6.2 Current Research and Development Trends(1) Quantum Computing Technology
Fo r t h e e s t a bl i sh m e nt of q u a nt u m bit o p e r a t io ntechnology, the use of various physical quantities such as
superconductivity, light, spin, atoms, and ions is being
considered. We are currently verifying to what extent alarge-scale quantum computer can be realized with eachmethod and resource. Both theoretical and experimental
efforts are being made to expand the indicators that
represent the feasible scale of meaningful quantum
computing (for example, Quantum Volume) and to improvethe calculation accuracy of the basic quantum computing.
In the case of superconducting quantum bits, which
are currently the most successful at integration, multiple
efforts are being made toward the realization of a large
quantum computer, assuming a situation where thenumber of quantum bits in a refrigerator increases toabout 100,000, and using high-density wiring cables,

reducing heat inflow by turning control sequences into
light pulses, and examining miniaturization and on-chip
implementation of microwave components. In the case of
ion and neutral atom methods, which have long coherence
times and can achieve high calculation accuracy, there isalso a movement to realize a quantum computer by using
physical quantum bits directly without error correction by
maximizing the calculation accuracy. Other theoreticalattempts are being made to improve accuracy (Appendix
C-4-1), but it is a common understanding that time isstill needed (at the earliest, by 2030) to demonstrate
the superiority of a quantum computer that has beentheoretically proven at a practical level. Because of thiscurrent situation, from a theoretical point of view, there areattempts to realize a quantum computer that can withstandpractical use by maximizing the use of existing technology,
such as research on quantum computing algorithms
that can be implemented with only the existing NISQ
devices and research on quantum advanced computational
information processing that combines a small quantum
computer with a conventional type of supercomputer.
(2) Quantum Communication Technology
Experimental research is being conducted in various
fields to realize a proposed method to extend the feasible
distance of quantum communication (quantum relay). The
realization of this requires the implementation of nodes
that can process quantum information as it is (quantum
nodes, thus, for example, many resources are being
invested in research to convert and transmit quantum
information between different media, such as light andmatter. In terms of application-oriented research, there areattempts to implement practical functions using a quantum
cryptography network. Specifically, there is a variety of
research directions ranging from simple ones that enable
key sharing over long distances by performing key relay
via intermediate nodes, to those that combine the secretkeys supplied by quantum cryptography with classicalnetwork protocols such as secret sharing and network
coding, to achieve security that could not be realized withtraditional classical protocols.
For f u nd a me nt a l r e s e a r ch r el at e d t o q u a nt u minformation communication technology using optical fibers,
efforts are also being made to improve fundamental device
performance, such as with high-transmission-rate fibers
and low-noise light receiving elements. These not only
contribute to improving the theoretical limit of the distancepossible for quantum communication, but also to improving
the performance of general communication technologies,
and are issues that should be steadily addressed.
As for quantum communication technology using
satellites, although the high cost of satellite launches─26 ─Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areasli m it s t he tech nolog y to specif ic resea rch ba ses,development is steadily progressing. For example,
China reported a successful experiment of on-satellite
quantum cryptography in 2017, and in Europe, the EU
has announced a plan to conduct orbital tests of its own in
2025 and to start services in 2028.
(3) Quantum Device Technology
Various physical concepts are being considered as candidates
for quantum devices, but devices using superconductivity
have a clear advantage due to their excellent integration andscalability. For superconducting quantum bits, the extensionof the quantum state retention time (coherence time) has
been a long-standing issue, but in recent years it has become
possible to stably achieve a coherence time of more than
0.1 ms by using tantalum (Ta) or nitride superconductors
as electrode materials. On the other hand, the ability to set
circuit parameters arbitrarily for each element is also anadvantage of superconducting quantum bits. Therefore,
development is progressing on methods for adjustingelement characteristics by individually irradiating finishedelements with a laser (post-annealing). In addition, thenumber of elements that can operate with one refrigerator isconstrained by the number of wires that can be introduced
into the ultra-low temperature environment of several 10mK; the installation space for low-noise amps, circulators,
and other peripheral parts; and power consumption.
Therefore, efforts are being made toward miniaturization,
low power consumption, and control circuits that operate at
ultra-low temperatures (Fig. 2. 6-2).

2.6.3 Future Prospects(1) Quantum Computing Technology
By 2030-2040, it is believed that large-scale quantum
computers will be achievable. However, it is not yet
clear which of the many quantum bit techniques will
come to fruition as implementation technologies. At
this point, it is not wise to narrow down the direction;
instead, exploratory research that broadly investigates
technological possibilities through various approaches willremain important for some time. Also, to scale up quantum
computers, it is necessary to distribute the system, making
the development of quantum media conversion technology,
which can convert quantum information into light andmove it spatially, essential. Coherently connecting adjacent
refrigerators using a cooled microwave cable method, witha refrigerator group equipped with about 5000 quantum
bits, can be expected to realize a quantum computer ofabout 100,000 quantum bits in about five years, it could
serve as a rough milestone.
(2) Quantum Communication Technology
To realize a global quantum cryptography network via
terrestrial optical fibers, establishing quantum relay
technology is crucial. To achieve this, it is essential todevelop technologies such as 1) single-photon generation
devices and 2) quantum media conversion technology andto 3) accurately implement simple quantum operations on
quantum bits.
On the other hand, from the perspective of national
security, Japan needs to develop and possess its own
satellite-based quantum cryptography technology. During
this process, the following technological requirements
are important: 1) communication should be possible evenduring daytime, 2) communication should be possible
even in cloudy weather, and 3) satellites should not require
security. If each of these can be realized, it is thought thatusability and reliability will dramatically improve.

Source: NICT press release(a) Ion-trapped qubits(b) Superconducting qubit
Fig. 2.6-2 Examples of Quantum Bits Used in Quantum
Computers and Quantum Repeaters(3) Quantum Device Technology
With superconducting quantum bits, if a coherencetime of more than 1 ms can be stably achieved, further
improvements in gate f idelity are possible, leading
to a drastic improvement in computational accuracy.
Meanwhile, reducing the variance in circuit parametersis also crucial. Not only post-annealing by laser but
also the development of a manufacturing process that
fundamentally suppresses variance will be essential. To
achieve these, it is necessary to work on circuit types
and material processes, and the superiority of using“quantum” in practically effective calculations beyond
such R&D will be proven in near future. On the other
hand, the realization of a universal quantum computer

─27 ─The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

requires increasing the number of elements by 4-5 ordersof magnitude compared to NISQ computers, and there
are numerous problems to be solved, thus it will still takesome time to realize it.
(4) Conclusion
When these various problems are solved, and quantum
infor mation processing mat ures in the f ut ure, it isbelieved that the fusion of the current (classical) networkand the new quantum network will progress. There, thenetwork will become multi-layered, and along with theestablishment of ultimately secure communication using
quantum networks, enhancements to quantum computing
and the realization of quantum sensor networks via
quantum networks are expected (Fig. 2.6-3).
In conclusion, this overview of the quantum ICT field
has addressed the surrounding environment, current R&D
trends, and future prospects. The effort for this technology
can be seen as an ambitious attempt to implement
quantum mechanics, which has often been discussed
from an academic viewpoint, as a technology that canbe used for information processing and communication.
A ge ne r at ion ago, qu a nt u m comput i ng, qu a nt u mcryptography, and quantum communication were justfantasies, but various technological innovations in recent
years have brought them within reach. If this technology
is actually used, it will undoubtedly bring many benefits
to people’s lives, such as the realization of secure
information communication, the acceleration of usefulmaterial exploration, and contributions to reducing theenvironmental impact from an energy perspective. Since
this is also one of the areas where Japan has superiority,
continuous development is essential.

Fig. 2.6-3 Future Vision of Quantum Internet (Modified
from NICT Quantum Internet White Paper

2.7 AI/Universal Communication
We are on the verge of a future society where individuals
can freely communicate not only with each other, butalso with objects such as robots, or where objects cancommunicate among themselves. In a human-centeredsociety, major means of communication can be language,
facial expressions, gestures, and actions. In this chapter,we consider comprehensive communication that overcomesvarious barriers, including both verbal and non-verbal
information as Universal Communication, together with an
overview of its trends (Fig. 2.7-1). Generally, the barriers
that hinder smooth communication include language
barriers, knowledge barriers, and even cultural barriers,and various R&D efforts are being carried out to overcome
these barriers. In particular, AI technology that supports
diverse communication has been rapidly developing inrecent years.
AI technology, a topic of frequent discussion these days,is classified into technology for a discriminative system andtechnology for a generative system. The former is suitable
for tasks such as classifying input data, such as documentclassification, and the latter is suitable for tasks like generating
synthetic samples of data, such as sentence generation.
Recently, the performance of generative AI technology
has greatly improved. Along with this, AI technology is
beginning to be used widely in commercial applications withthe support of users, and new services utilizing generative AI
technology (such as automated email generation and design
assistance) are being created one after another.
As an example of generative AI, there have been reportsof over 20 major companies announcing the provision ofservices utilizing a conversational AI, ChatGPT, fromearly on. In multilingual processing technologies that
handle human language, such as speech recognition,
machine translation, and speech synthesis, a transitionis occurring from discriminative AI to generative AI
technologies.
In recent years, AI technologies that handle multimodal
information, not just speech and text, but also images andvarious IoT data, are attracting attention, and the types ofhandled information have been diversified from individual
information such as speech, text, and images to their
combinations. In a future society where the real world(physical space) and the virtual world (cyber space) arehighly integrated, digital twins (Appendix C-3-2) model thereal world (Appendix C-3-1), reproduce it in cyber space, andprovide feedback on the analytical results in the real world,which lead to changes in communication and subsequent
behavior will be implemented and utilized in city planningand more. Even in this field, AI technology that handles
multimodal information is being increasingly utilized.

─28 ─

Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

Fig. 2.7-1 Future of Universal Communication

On the other hand, it has been pointed out that AI cangenerate disinformation that is indistinguishable from thetruth, biased information, or information that infringes
on privacy or copyright. It is feared that AI incorrectly
learns such information as appropriate information, andinappropriate information is further spread by users
who use the AI, or exploited for fraud, impersonation,and other unfair practices, which will spread and leadto social confusion. Moreover, there are concerns about
the distortion of individual decision-making due to theprevalence of unidentified texts generated by AI that do
not disclose what training data was used, and there are also
claims that discussions about the impact of AI on humanrights and democracy are not substantively being held
as an emphasis is placed on industrial development andtechnological innovation 100).
In ter ms of the global t rends for generative AI,
there are cautious movements such as announcements
prohibiting the use of ChatGPT due to difficulties inlimiting falsehoods and biases, as well as infringements
on privacy and copyright and establishment of ethicalregulations for AI in the EU. Japan also needs to establish
ethical norms, guidelines, and legal frameworks not only
for technical considerations but also to prevent social
turmoil and business delays. In particular, considerations
for transparency, fairness, diversity assurance, clarificationof responsibility, and protection of rights such as personal
information and copyright are important in the collectionof data and the use of content generated by AI.
In the following, we will focus on the R&D trendsof technologies related to language, specifically (1)multilingual processing technology, which is the basis ofcommunication, and (2) large-scale language models andconversational technologies that support them.

2.7.1 Background(1) Multilingual Processing Technology(Speech recognition and synthesis, machinetranslation, simultaneous interpretation)
Regarding speech recog nition and sy nthesis,
statistical-based approaches were the mainstream until
around 2010. However, with the emergence of deeplearning technology, hybrid technology that replacedsome functions of statistical-based approaches withneural networks became widely spread. Subsequently,
from around 2016, R&D of End-to-End technology,
which conducts all speech recognition and synthesis
processes with neu ral net work s, became themainstream. After the rise of deep lear ning, in thefield of speech recognition, Big Tech companies suchas GAFA, Microsoft, and IBM fiercely led R&D, andvar ious methods were proposed. Var ious products
such as voice search apps and smart speakers weredeveloped a nd w idely u sed. I n speech sy nt hesis,
starting with Google DeepMind’s WaveNet in 2016,
neural network-based speech synthesis models havebecome mainst ream, and cu r rently, many fast andhigh-quality models that can be processed only with
CPUs have emerged. Recently, multiple speaker models
that can synthesize voices of any speakers, such as
Microsoft’s VALL-E, have also been proposed.
For machine translation, since Google Translate
introduced Neural Machine Translation (NMT) in 2016,its accuracy has been greatly improved. In addition
to Google and Microsoft, DeepL has become widelyused both domestically and internationally as a majormach i ne t ra nslat ion provider. O n t he ot her ha nd ,while R&D of simultaneous interpretation is actively
car ried out, practical applications have just begun.
Research on multimodal translation using images isstill in the research stage. For these machine translation
technologies, although they have reached about 80 to 90
percent accuracy for general text and their accuracy has
been improving, there is still room for development interms of versatility and usability.
(2) Large Language Models (Dialogue Technology)
Large Language Models (LLMs) are massive neuralnetworks trained on vast amounts of text data (primarily
web text, ranging from several hundred GB to several
T B). T hey ca n per for m a w ide a r ray of la ng u age
processing tasks, such as question-answering, text
generation, machine translation, with high accuracy
by f ur ther t raining, k now n as f ine-t uning on data
specific to the final target tasks. As an LLM can execute
various tasks based on one model, it is also called afoundation model 101). It generally follows the Transformer

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The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

architecture 102) (see Appendix C-3-3).
In traditional language processing R&D, a machinelearning device such as a neural network was designedby task, training was made using data specific to thetask, for the task to be executed. LLMs are expectedt o b e a de si r able t e ch nolog y whe re al l la ng u age
processi ng t ask s ca n be done with h ig h accu racy
using a single model. LLMs can learn not only naturallang uages used by hu mans but also prog ram mi ng
languages, and some can generate program code. In
par ticular, generative LLMs, capable of executing
various tasks including program code generation, aredrawing attention for potentially revolutionizing theway white-collar work is done. However, as discussed
later, there are risk factors for practical use compared
to cognitive LLMs.
T he f i r st fa mou s LLM wa s GPT-3 (175 bill ion
parameters, Brown et al. 103)). ChatGPT 104), the improved
version of GPT-3, has become a social phenomenon byattracting billions of users in a short time due to its highcapability. Increasing the number of parameters andmaking the neural network larger for higher accuracy has
become a trend. Following GPT-3 (see Appendix C-34), larger models like Google’s PaLM with 540 billion
parameters, Chowdhery et al.105) and Wudao 2.0 from
China with 1.75 trillion parameters 106) have appeared (Fig.
2.7-2).
Chatbots that utilize LLMs, like ChatGPT, are also
called conversational AIs. W hile it is not a totally
new app, ChatGPT can be considered the world’s first
conversational AI widely recognized by general users for
its utility.
As mentioned at the beginning of section 2.7, there
are technical issues with generative AI (see AppendicesC-3-5 and C-3-6), and indeed, there are many concerns
pointing out the various negative impacts on society.
However, in February 2023, Microsoft announced theintegration of ChatGPT into its search engine, Bing, andstarted to release a preview version. Google has also
started a similar service using Bard. Moreover, as ofthis writing, OpenAI has announced GPT-4 107), whichis available on ChatGPT and Bing. Also, ChatGPT isaccessible through API, and various services and apps
have been born, and Japanese companies have started toutilize them 108). Numerous other private companies andresearch institutions have announced similar efforts, andR&D on conversational AI utilizing LLMs is fiercelycompetitive.

Fig. 2.7-2 Recent Trends in LLM

2.7.2 Current Research and Development Trends(1) Multilingual Processing Technology(Speech recognition and synthesis, machinetranslation, simultaneous interpretation)
In speech recognition, besides Big Tech, there has been
an upsurge in Asian companies like Baidu, iFlyTek, andLINE (acquired by Works Mobile Japan) intensifying
competition in foundational technology R&D. Also,
domestically, companies like NTT and Yahoo Japanare gaining momentum. Technically, composite speechr e c og n it ion t e ch n iq ue s t h at i nc or p or at e s p e a ke r
identif ication, language identif ication, and various
acoustic signal processing techniques within an end-toend framework have been proposed. While paid speech
recognition APIs are provided by Google, Microsoft, andother big companies, high-quality speech recognition
APIs that can be used for free, like OpenAI’s Whispera nd Re a son Sp e e ch h ave b e e n r ele a s e d , c au si ng
increasingly intense competition in product development.
In the realm of speech synthesis as well, besides
Big Tech 109) , companies like South Korea’s Kakao
E n t e r p r i s e a r e c o m p e t i n g f i e r c e l y i n R & D. I n
pa r t icula r, a la rge nu mber of h ig h- qu alit y neu rals p e e ch sy nt he sis mo dels for si ng le a nd mu lt iple
speakers have been proposed.
Regarding machine t ranslation, cur rently, highprecision machine translation is possible by scaling up
NMT for languages like English and German, whichhave a large number of parallel cor pora. For casesthat require domain-specific parallel corpora, such as
specialized fields, there are studies improving machinetranslation accuracy by searching translation memories.
For translation between low-resource languages withfew data samples, there are studies creating translation
models by f ine-t uning large lang uage models like
BART. On the other hand, there has not been significant
prog ress i n t ranslat i ng long texts li ke docu mentswith consistency. Research is also actively ongoing to─30 ─Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

determine the reliability of machine translation results.
There has been a recent trend of studies that detect
errors not only in machine translation but also in humantranslation or evaluate specific linguistic phenomena(disambiguation of word meanings, anaphora, etc.). In
simultaneous interpretation, there are studies aiming toincrease translation processing speed while maintaining
high translation accuracy. Furthermore, multimodal
ma ch i ne t r a n slat ion t hat ut i l i ze s i mage or v ide oinformation is at the research stage.
(2) LLM (Dialogue Technology)
Pre-t raining and f ine-t uning an LLM require vast
computational resources, hence, it is not easy for anyone
to readily develop applications utilizing LLMs beyond
connecting their services to the likes of ChatGPT via
APIs. Additionally, it has been pointed out that thelarge-scale implementation of LLMs and reward-based
reinforcement learning alone are insufficient from theperspective of realizing artificial intelligence 110), andR&D into new architectures and learning methods arealso being promoted.
Rega rd i ng t he re sea rch a nd developme nt ofconstructing LLMs, further scaling is likely to continue
as an extension of the current trajectory. However, when
considering operational costs for the deployment ofcommercial services, there is a demand for more efficientmodels of a scale that are accessible to everyone, andprogress is expected in the development of mediumscale LLMs. Meta’s announcement of LLaMA 111) inFebruary 2023 can be seen as indicative of this direction.
For example, LLaMA-13B with 13 billion parameters
showed higher accuracy than GPT-3 with 175 billion
parameters in almost all benchmarks. With LLaMA
made available for research purposes, the subsequentannouncements of Vicuna with 13 billion parametersand Alpaca with 7 billion parameters, which were finetuned from LLaMA, quickly followed. Notable amongcommercially available open-source LLMs is BLOOM
with 175 billion parameters, and since the start of 2023,
commercially available LLMs, such as Dolly2.0 with 12
billion parameters, StableLM with 7 billion parameters,
and OpenLLaMA with 7 billion parameters, have beendeveloped and released, thus the development of suchopen-source LLMs is expected to accelerate further.
Within Japan, rinna Co., Ltd. has released a Japanese
LLM with 3.6 billion parameters, and CyberAgent has
released a Japanese LLM with 6.8 billion parameters,
both under commercially available licenses. At NICT,
while the learning data is not large, a GPT with 40
billion parameters has already been constructed and thelarge-scale expansion of learning data and models is

considered in the future.

2.7.3 Future Prospects(1) Multilingual Processing Technology(Speech recognition & synthesis, machinetranslation, simultaneous interpretation)
To a c h i e v e h i g h - a c c u r a c y E n d - t o - E n d s p e e c hrecognition, it is necessary to collect and organize more
speech corpora that are pairs of spoken words and theirlabels (voice and transcriptions) than ever before andimplement model learning for speech recognition. The
preparation of a large amount of speech corpora requires
enormous financial and human costs, and it is easy toforesee that there will naturally be a limit. For the limit,
research on model learning using a large amount of
unlabeled audio data is becoming a significant trend.
The t wo mainst ream methods are semi-super vised
learning, which uses pseudo labels generated by speech
recognition, and self-supervised learning, which pretrains an audio feature extractor using a large amountof unlabeled data and then tunes it with a small amountof labeled data according to the application. These arepromising technologies for the future development ofspeech recognition.
Meanwhile, no organization has started working on
speech synthesis technologies such as speech speed
control for simultaneous interpretation, so it is crucial toconduct focused research on this. Also, it was found thatan End-to-End model for multiple speakers using speech
recognition cor pora can achieve a recognition rateequivalent to the original sound. This means that thelearning data for speech recognition can be generated
not only from real speech but also from models. Since
nat u ral text can be generated inf initely by neu ral
language generation models, it is possible to generate
a learning set for speech recognition that can handle
unknown words, etc. However, as technologies like
VALL-E become capable of synthesizing any voice inhigh quality, technologies such as digital watermarking
for the secure use of synthetic voices will become
increasingly important.
Regardi ng machi ne t ranslation, f i rst, for hig hresource lang uages (for which large-scale parallel
corpora are available), continuous research for further
improvement of machine translation accuracy is needed.
For example, even between high-resource languages,
translating low-frequency events such as technicalterms, colloquial expressions, and idioms is challenging.
Also, to improve the translation accuracy of specialized
fields, it is necessary to continue developing parallel
data for various fields (such as Translation Banks 112))

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The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

and research on domain adaptation. In terms of machinetranslation between low-resource languages with few
data samples, continued research on fine-tuning large
language models is likely to remain mainstream. Given
the numerous languages around the world, there is likely
to be a trend towards improving machine translationaccu racy bet ween many lang uages th rough global
collaboration. Furthermore, although the accuracy ofmachine translation has been improving, current Neural
Machine Translation (NMT) systems do not have amechanism to guarantee the accuracy of translation
results, requiring users of NMT to verify the accuracy
on their own. At present, a method is being used where
the t ranslation out put of MT is back-t ranslated tothe original language, and this is compared with the
input original text to verify the accuracy of machinetranslation results. However, in the future, we will needto develop and research various other methods that allow
even users who do not understand foreign languages toverify the accuracy of machine translation results. With
respect to simultaneous interpretation, there will likely
be research on multimodal machine translation that uses
image information, such as lecture slides, and others.
(2) Future prospects of LLM and its applications(Dialogue technology)
ChatGPT is regarded as a good example of the potential
application of LLM, which allows var ious nat u ral
language processing tasks, e.g., information retrieval,sum mar ization, question answer ing, and nar rative
generation. They are executable by only providing simple
prompts, such as commands to be executed by the systemor providing examples to help command execution.
The potential of conversational AI demonstrated by
ChatGPT is interesting; however, given the risk ofgenerating false or ethically problematic expressions, thegenerated results cannot necessarily be used as they are.
In addition to methods that distinguish text generatedby LLMs from that by humans and only present text
written by humans or automatically generate text basedon only human-written text, R&D towards solving issuesof generating unintentionally inaccurate or inappropriate
expressions, LLMs fine-tuned to specific tasks (such as
the automatic generation of movie scripts), and LLMs
that can simultaneously generate other modalities, suchas video, are expected to progress. GPT-4 113), announced
in March 2023, repor tedly required six months tobecome safer to use, and it has been announced that it
can now accept image inputs, albeit experimentally.
As conversat ional A Is usi ng LLMs become
widespread, there will likely be deeper discussions on
how to handle such technology in society. At present,

there are studies comparing the results of questionanswering by ChatGPT and human exper ts 114) , but
in the future, the data may develop further for suchcomparisons and evaluation methods f rom various
perspectives, including the ethical aspect.
Furthermore, conversational AI is expected to be
integrated into various applications. For example, if aconversational AI is integrated into a document creation
app, it is anticipated that confidential information suchas the importance of information and intent could becompletely exposed to the conversational AI provider.
A l s o, c o d e ge ne r at e d by c onve r s at ion a l A I m ay
potentially infringe on others’ patents or copyrights
without knowing it, so caution is needed in its use.
Moreover, there are concerns that fake information
generated by conversational AI placed on the web could
lead another conversational AI trained with that data to
generate similar fake information, potentially disrupting
previously functioning error checks 115). As a result, fakeinformation could potentially proliferate across the web.
Academically, there are also concerns, as reported in
the Nikkei newspaper in March 2023 116), text possibly
generated by an AI could slip into academic papers anddistort human scientific knowledge.
From these considerations, it is anticipated thatthe establishment of various rules regarding the useof conversational AI and regulations on its use will
become necessary. In fact, in the United States, a letter
was published on March 22, 2023 calling for a pauseof at least six months in the training of advanced AI
systems, and as of the end of March 2023, it is reported
that over 1,000 people, including prominent individuals
like Elon Musk, have signed it 117).
(3) Conclusion
This chapter has mainly overviewed trends focusing
on technologies that support communication throughlanguage. However, when we rethink communication
more broadly, we can consider further possibilities.
For example, with the advancement of brain interface
technology (covered in Chapter 2.8), if we can consider
the diverse information processed in the brain throughour five senses as part of multimodal information, it
is expected that even more advanced communication
will become possible. Beyond communication throughl a n g u a g e , by f u r t h e r i n t e g r a t i n g a d v a n c e d IC T
technologies into humans, a world of telepathy, enabledby brain-to-brain com munication, could become areality.

─32 ─Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

2.8 Bio-ICT and Brain Science for ICT
In recent years, R&D in the fusion of life sciences and
ICT, such as bioinformatics, has been actively pursued.
As mentioned in Chapter 2.7.3, the advancement of AI
technology is not only enabling communication throughtext between humans and AI, but it is also creating
the expectation of new fields as life sciences and ICT
become more closely integrated. This chapter provides
an overview of the trends in Bio ICT, a field combining
life sciences and ICT, and particularly focuses on brain
science for ICT.

2.8.1 BackgroundAnxiety and awe, triggered by the rapid technologicalinnovation of AI, are manifesting as natural responses
among people (Fig. 2.8-1). In specific functions, AI has
already surpassed human capabilities, and in future may
handle more complex tasks and emulate human thoughts
and emotions. Such progress has potential to infringe on
basic human rights and individuality, raising questions
about the meaning and essence of human existence.
These questions have become socially significant.

Fig. 2.8-1 Concerns about evolving AI and the superaged society

Also, risks related to safety are highlighted by theevolution of AI. The evolution of AI also highlights safety
risks: AI systems can cause serious accidents and damage
through bad decisions, and new threats can be createdby those with malicious intent to exploit AI. Ethical andsocial issues are also concerns (see reference: papers on
AI ethics) 118) . There is potential for invasion of personalprivacy and biased decision-making based on race,
gender, and other factors. Identifying these issues held by
AI and aiming for their resolution requires discussions
around ELSI (Ethical, Legal and Social Issues), andwhile considering both technological advancements andsocietal needs, there is a demand to maximize benefits

obtained from AI and minimize risks.
Technical issues related to AI include the energy
consumed and emitted for vast calculations and thechallenges ar ising f rom the sig nif icant amou nt of
space and power required for data storage. As AI takes
on more complex issues, the amount of computation
required to t rain AI systems is increasing tenfold
an nually. In addition to R&D aimed at improving
the energy efficiency of devices as a solution to thischallenge, there are also expectations for research onlear ning about the trade-offs among computationalc a p a bi l it ie s , r e s ou r c e s , si z e, weig ht , a nd p owe r
consumption (SWaP) from living organisms.
Another anxiety that citizens have is related to thesuper-aged society that Japan is currently facing. Alongwith the fear of cognitive decline, there is a desire tolead an active and healthy lifestyle even at an older age.
Accordingly, the nation has a high interest in extending
their healthy life expectancy, value preventive medicine,and desire a situation where they can participate insociety with a healthy lifestyle. The nation is expectingthat technologies like ICT, caregiving robots, and smart
healthcare devices will reduce the burden of caregiving
and medical care and enhance and support the lives ofthe elderly (Fig. 2.8-2). Even in the super-aged society,
AI is expected to play a significant role.
However, as often depicted in science fiction movies,
people are highly wary of themes such as AI developing
consciousness or the transfer of consciousness to acomputer as a result of the advancement of AI. Oneof the sou rces of an xiet y towards inorganic A I isprobably the absence of behavioral norms that humans
naturally have in intelligent machines represented by
AI. The source of modern human behavior is the mind.
In research f ields of life sciences and AI research,the mind is an impor tant issue but not the cent ral
theme. Therefore, it is difficult to guarantee people’s
spiritually rich lives with these R&D efforts alone.
The answer to the question of what kind of technology
should suppor t the f ut u re human-centered societ yshould be provided by a broad field of brain sciences(neu roscie nc e, p sycholog y, hu m a n scie nc e s , l i fesciences, philosophy) focusing mainly on the humanbrain.

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The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

Already, single-function AI has demonstrated highlearning abilities, rather than brute-force large-scaledata exploration, by defeating world champions inchess and professional Go players. Deep learning foranalyzing large-scale data has brought sig nif icant
progress in AI applications such as image recognitiona n d s p e e c h r e c og n it io n . Eve n p r o t e i n s t r u c t u r e
prediction, a long-standing challenge in life sciences,
ca n now be u se d t o pre d ict st r uct u re s w it h h ig haccuracy from the primary sequence of amino acids,
dramatically transfor ming life sciences, especially
protein structure research.
Fig. 2.8-2 Expectations for Technologies Supporting
Daily Life

Currently, in order to realize a human-centered society
advocated in Society5.0 83), R&D efforts focusing on
Neurotech/BrainTech and Neuromorphic computing are
attracting attention both domestically and internationally.
Va r iou s fou nd at ional re sea rch a nd t e ch nolog ical
developments are underway globally, viewed from theperspectives of efficient information communicationand presentation through understanding the brain; AI,energy-saving information processing, and wirelesscommunication inspired by the brain science; and nextgeneration interfaces using brain information. Moreover,there has been a resurgence in biological function research
as a clue for energy-saving infor mation processing
technologies, with both academic and private sector
entities, including startups, entering the field.
Technological developments discussed on a spanof about 10 yea rs of ten build on resea rch result s
accumulated over several decades and frequently achieve
breakthroughs through interdisciplinary integration.
Therefore, in predicting the human-centered R&D thatwill emerge in the next 10 years, it is necessary to look notonly at the current trends in relevant R&D but also at thepotential of fundamental research across various fields.

2.8.2 Current Research and Development
Trends
The environment surrounding the R&D of brain sciencefor ICT and Bio ICT is considered in three related fields:
AI-related research, life science research including brain
function analysis, and ICT research including brain
function measurement devices.
(1) AI-related ResearchWith the rapid evolution of generative AI th roughtransformers 102), AI has acquired advanced linguistic
abilities and has beg u n to handle a wide range ofintellectual tasks that had been performed by humans.

(2) Life Science ResearchWith the advancement of bioinformatics, life sciencehas formed a partnership with data-driven science, andtogether with the development of observation equipment
and technologies such as advanced optical microscopes
and cryo-electron microscopes, it has made remarkableprogress. Protein structure research can describe the
3D structure of proteins with high spatial resolution
thanks to the improved performance of cryo-electronm ic roscope s a nd pre d ict t hei r dy na m ics t h roug hmolecular dy namics simulations 119) . Fu r ther more,machine learning using accumulated structural data
has made it possible to predict the three-dimensional
structure of a protein using only the primary sequenceof amino acids.
Significant advancements have been seen in optical
microscopy technology as a fundamental technology
supporting research using biological entities. Techniques
to observe and manipulate cells and other entities threedimensionally with high spatial resolution are being
extended to deep parts of biological entities. In addition,
genome editing technology has made the creation of newlife possible, and iPS cell research is causing a significant
revolution in artificial organ/tissue technology. Genetic
engineering technology has greatly developed the field
as a useful tool for life science. The derived technology,
optogenetics 120), has become essential for neuroscience
research as a technique that can stimulate specif ic
neurons at specif ic times. Function-complementing
life medical science tech nologies, represented byartificial joints and artificial inner ear technology, areproducing high-performance, robust, durable alternative
organs one after another through collaboration withmaterials science, signif icantly extending people’s
healthy life expectancy. Not limited to macro-level
alternative organs, the emergence of technologies likemicroparticles that mimic cell functions and artificial
cell technologies are establishing new communication
concepts that perceive intermolecular interactions as─34 ─Chapter 2 Trends in Key Areas

information communication.
In neuroscience, studies using experimental animals
continue to report connectomes that provide detailed
descriptions of neuronal networks in the brain 121). For themodel organism Drosophila melanogaster, a connectome
database has been published that comprehensively
describes the connectivity of all the neurons constituting
the brain 122) 123) 124), and along with the introduction of
behavioral experiments using genetic manipulation
technology and virtual reality (VR) technology andbehavioral analysis technology utilizing deep learning, it
has become possible to analyze information processing
within the ner vous system in accordance with thecharacteristics of specific circuits. The introduction of
optogenetics has also made it possible to link neuronal
activity to behavior. Molecular mechanisms of learningand memory are also being elucidated. In addition togene switching methods, technology to express lightresponsive channel proteins in specific cells allows
for local stimulation of specific nerves through light
ir radiation f rom the outside. T his tech nolog y canbe used to externally control the behavior of livingorganisms, and may have a wide range of applicationsin the future. Already, studies have been conductedthat change the behavior of Drosophila and m icewith external light stimulation. Insects have a small
nervous system that can rapidly produce a wide varietyof adaptive behaviors, and attempts are being madeto apply these functions to engineering information
processing, such as navigation using landmarks and thecentral mechanism of action selection 125) These recent
initiatives have been invigorated against the backdropof growing needs for more power-cost performance ininformation communication technologies represented
by IoT and edge devices. They are focused on insects tocreate new AI that functions within constraints of size,
weight, and energy consumption, understanding the
integrated sensory and nervous systems of small insects,
mapping them onto computer hardware, and emulate
their functions.
On the other hand, research targeting the humanbrai n is accelerat i ng due to t he soph ist icat ion oflarge-scale measurement devices and their analysis
tech nology, moving towards the essence of higher
brain functions. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)systems are becoming increasingly sophisticated interms of spatio-temporal resolution as the magnetic field
becomes higher and higher. At the same time, R&D ofneural activity measurements using non-BOLD signals
are advancing 126). As a result, mathematical modelingof various brain information processing mechanisms is
progressing.

(3) ICT-related Research
I n ICT R&D, sensor net works represented by IoT(Internet of Things) and their supporting high-speed,h ig h- capacit y com mu n icat ion net works a re bei ng
established. Communication equipment is becoming
smaller and more portable, and an environment where
one can connect to the network anytime, anywhere isabout to be established. In response to the developmentof ICT, the following technologies are being pursued
in the “Neurotech/BrainTech fields,” which are areas
where brain functions and ICT are merged. For example,
electroencephalogram is not only useful for diagnosis
and treatment in the medical field, but it is also usedin fields such as brain-activating games and biometricauthentication. Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) andBrain-Machine Interface (BMI), which mainly apply
elect roencephalog ram to li n k brai n act ivit y to acomputer are researched to operate various devices
according to the user’s intentions. They are used in the
medical field for patients to operate prosthetic hands/
arms and legs and in the e-sports field to stimulate
brain activity. Neuromarketing technology uses brain
information analysis technology to analyze the rootsof consumer behavior and consciousness, and it isapplied to market research and advertising effectivenessanalysis. From the plan ning stage of products andadvertisements, it is possible to read the psychology
of customers and establish more effective marketingstrategies. Neurofeedback technology 127) uses brain
information analysis technology to measure the brain
activity of subjects and provide feedback to the subjects
as visual and auditory information, thereby enhancing
t rai n i ng effects and act ivat i ng u nconscious brai nactivities. This has been attempted to improve cognitive
function and relieve stress. In addition, the constructionof chemical sensors that detect odors, tastes, and trace
amounts of biologically active substances th roughthe combination of biological functions and machinelearning has been widely conducted from basic research
to the private sector.

2.8.3 Future Prospects
Considering the accelerating progress of peripheral
fields, it is expected that the research fields of bio-ICT
and brain science for ICT will develop at an accelerated
pace as a result of synergies generated by the active
fusion of these peripheral f ields. We would like todiscuss the future prospects for 2030 and beyond. (Fig.
2.8-3).

─35 ─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

Fig. 2.8-3 Future Prospects of Bio ICT and Brain science for ICT(1) Future Prospects in the Field of Information
Communication & AI
In the next 10 years, the advancements in brain science for
ICT in Neurotech/Brain-tech, and the development of BioICT research are expected to achieve the following:• Thanks to the deciphering of brain information and theclarification of information representation in the brain,techniques for efficiently transmitting optimal information
to the brain and presenting information will be developed. In
addition, bidirectional five-sensory communication utilizing
biosensors capable of detecting trace substances will evolve.
Access to effectors will become possible, and technologies
utilizing non-verbal behavior changes, such as motor
function improvement and training to prevent function
decline utilizing brain characteristics, will advance.
• Next-generation AI technologies incorporating the brain
functions of humans and insects, and brain-integrated AI
will emerge. Next-generation energy-saving information
processing technologies and next-generation pulse
wireless communication technologies that imitate thebrain and organisms will emerge. This is based on thepulse-based information communication of neuronal
activity, and its use in IoT sensor networks is expected.
Moreover, the practical application of molecularcommunication technology, which perceives chemical
substances as information carriers, will begin.
• BMI technology by using brain waves and neurofeedback
will become popular, causing learning promotion andconcentration improvements by using brain waves to be
widespread. Minimally invasive cortical brain wave BMI
technology will become bidirectional, starting to shift
from medical use to general use.

(2) Future Prospects in the Field of Life Science
Research
In research using biological entities, cellular engineering
using iPS cells is advancing, and various organs and tissues
are being reconstructed. Even now, brain organoids 128)are being developed, and studies assessing the learning
capabilities exhibited when these organoids are electricallystimulated are progressing. In the future, an in vitro
brain could possibly be created. Moreover, with genome
editing technology, it is possible to introduce any gene
into a cell and express its protein, greatly expanding thepossibilities of cellular engineering. The advancement ofsuch cellular engineering technologies, including iPS cells,
will eventually lead to medical applications like organ
banks, extending healthy life expectancy, and challenging
immortality through alternative organs. Also, bottomup techniques for artificially creating cells are advancing,which will lead to the development of micro-robot-likecells capable of surviving in harsh environments.
In R&D of brain function measurement technology,
the development of small, portable, and high-precision
measurement devices is rapidly advancing. More precise
EEG (electroencephalogram) devices will emerge. While
non-invasive ones are mainstream now, low-invasive
brain wave measurement devices will eventually be
widely accepted and used. Moreover, the developmentof quantum magnetic sensors 129) is progressing, making
portable MEG (magnetoencephalogram) measurements
possible. T he concept of f u nctional assist ance bystimulation devices will be added to the dominant
practice of measuring brain functions. While techniques
for improving body and brain functions by applying aweak current through electrodes attached to the scalp, like

─36 ─

Chapter 3 Concluding Remarks

tDCS and tACS (Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation
and Transcranial Alternating Current Stimulation), arestarting to be used in addition to TMS (Transcranial
Mag netic stimulation), applications of ult rasou nd
stimulation technology and optogenetic methods will
begin. As the molecular mechanisms of memory andlearning are elucidated, therapies like memory assistanceand memory recovery through localized neural stimulation
will begin.
(3) Future Vision for 2050
The development of technology to safely access higher
brain functions will be accepted and spread widely. In a
super-aged society, the roles of Bio-ICT and brain interface
communication fusion research become increasingly
important when considering effective strategies for various
phenomena associated with cognitive decline.
A type of AI that can understand meaning will beborn as a brain-integrated AI, merging with human brain
information. This will give birth to AI that can perform
various tasks as if they were an extension of oneself.
Moreover, the archiving of brain information will become
possible, allowing individuals to upload their own brain
information, memories, and motor skills for reference.
Brain function measurement devices will become
smaller, more portable, and less invasive, deepening thesystem with the addition of stimulation devices. The
portability of these devices will allow access to physicality,
utilize sensory information obtained from essential
movement for spatial cognition, accelerate motor assistanceand function enhancement, and push up the level of AI
integrated with the human brain. The possibility of humans
and AI to connect seamlessly will increase significantly.
Health longevity will markedly extend due to iPS cell
technology, cellular engineering technology, and artificial
cell technology. The installation of artificial organs andorgan banks will progress, suppressing physical aging.
Correspondingly, there will be increased demand for thedevelopment of technologies to maintain healthy brains. As
safety is confirmed, the general use of memory assistanceand neurofeedback will progress. In the coming era wherebrain information can be uploaded to silicon memory or
downloaded from an external memory device throughaccess to and archiving of brain information, the storage
medium could be a silicon device, organoid made of
biological molecules, or reconstituted brain.
It shou ld be noted t hat for such scient if ic a ndtechnological developments to harmoniously advancewith the human mind, there is a need for wide-ranging
discussions on ELSI (Ethical, Legal, and Social Issues)
across different fields and initiatives for international
collaborations are to be made early.

Chapter 3

Concluding Remarks

In this report, we introduced eight major technologicaltrends: Cross-sectional foundation technology, Utilizationof electromagnetic waves, Communication network
infrastructure, ICT device technology, Cybersecurity,
Quantum ICT, Universal communication, and Bio ICT
and brain interface on the ongoing R&D in the ICT
sector, which is expected to play a significant role inrealizing a prosperous future social infrastructure, andits future prospects. Given the wide-ranging environment
surrounding ICT and the diverse range of technological
topics within the ICT sector, this categorization is forthe 2023 edition and further evolution expected is in the
future.
While this report primarily focuses on technologicaltrends, the social proliferation of general AI tools
like ChatGPT necessitates discussions from various
perspectives not only on the technical aspects but also on
ethical, legal, and social issues (ELSI). This is a point thatmust be addressed in future overview reports. In future
ICT R&D projects, it will be crucial to consider ELSI inparallel with technological development.
Similarly, in terms of ICT’s contribution towards asustainable society, it is necessary to not only improve theenergy efficiency of various social systems through theuse of ICT but also to make the energy consumption of
ICT itself carbon neutral. Therefore, further advancements
towards promoting green ICT are expected.
This report was primarily written by researchers
at NICT and compiled from as neutral a standpoint as
possible. However, as this is a first attempt, there may
be areas of insufficiency, and updates are planned forthe future. We hope that the contents of this report will
be utilized by policy makers in Japan’s information andcommunications, economy, administration, education, andICT research communities to contribute to the developmentof ICT and the realization of a safe and secure Society 5.0.

─ 37 ─

Appendix

Terminology

Appendix A

Chapter 2

information occurs when the phase relationship between the
ground and an excited quantum state is disturbed by external

2 .2 Utilization of Electromagnetic Waves

disturbances.

1 . Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN): Communication system

2 . Superconducting Quantum Bit: It is implemented bythat connects all types of mobile entities across sea, air, andsuperimposing the ground state and the first excited state of anspace, including not only communication satellites but also

artificially created atom on a wafer using superconductivity.

High Altitude Platform Stations (HAPS), drones, and ships,
in a multi-layered configuration. It is expected to enable newuse cases such as logistics and IoT, as well as the use of the

2 .7 Universal Communication

Internet on airplanes and ships.

1 . LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging): Technology thatmeasures the distance and shape of an object from the reflected
light of the irradiated laser.

2 .3 Communication Network Infrastructure

2 . GAN (Generative Adversarial Network): Technology that can

1 . HAPS: Acronym for High-Altitude Platform Station, which

generate data such as high-resolution images by making two

refers to unmanned aerial vehicles that can fly non-stop in the

networks, generation and recognition, compete against eachstratosphere at an altitude of 20 km for several days to months.

other.

2 . Space-division multiplexed optical fiber communication:

3 . REXR (Realistic and EXpressive 3 D avataR): 3 D avatar

Communication technology used to transmit over 1 ,000

construction technology that can reproduce delicate

times more information (at petabit per second levels) thanexpressions and bodily movements of the person in real time

conventional systems using multi-core fibers in which multiple

from just one camera image.

cores are placed in a single fiber, or multi-mode transmission

4 . NeRF (Neural Radiance Fields): Technology that generates

for which separate paths are used by light distribution (mode).

high-quality images of different viewpoints from images from

3 . HTS (High Throughput Satellite communication system):

multiple viewpoints.

Satellite communication system that narrows the satellite beam
and concentrates many antenna beams at once to increase

2 .8 Bio ICT and Brain Interface Fusion Research

capacity.

Inspired by Biological Functions

4 . Space RAN: Radio access network (RAN) in space. It
organizes communication data received from devices such as

1 . S w a P : A t t e m p t t o c o n s i d e r t h e t r a d e - o ff s b e t w e e nsmartphones and interacts with the subsequent core network.

computational ability, resources, and size, weight, and

It includes antenna equipment, base stations, and line control

power (SWaP). The μBRAIN research aims to explore

devices.

innovative basic research concepts for developing prototype
computational models that can map appropriate hardware
to emulate the remarkable functions of small insects’ highly

2 .4 ICT Device Technology

integrated sensory-neural systems. Nature forces these small

1 . UVC: A type of ultraviolet (UV) light. UV light is broadly

insects to dramatic miniaturization and energy efficiency,

divided into A, B, and C from longest to shortest wavelength.

and some have only a few hundred neurons in a compact

UVC refers to light in the wavelength range of 100 -280 nm. It

form factor while maintaining basic functions. This researchis emitted by the sun in nature but completely absorbed by thewill enable systematic or entirely new ways of inference,

stratosphere and ozone, so it does not reach the Earth’s surface.

prediction, generalization, and problem abstraction, helping tofind solutions to pressing problems.
https://www.darpa.mil/program/microbrain

2 .6 Quantum ICT Field

2 . Neurotech-Braintech: Collective term for technologies that

1 . Coherence Time: It represents the time until quantum

apply insights from neuroscience, such as technologies for

information stored in a spin is lost. The loss of quantum

monitoring brain activity, stimulating the brain for therapy or

─I─The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

improvement, and technologies to support them.

• New academic field called Soft Robotics https://softrobot.jp/

3 . Neuromorphic computing: It aims to improve the performance• Introduction to Soft Robotics: Basic Composition andof existing devices by analyzing and mimicking the superior

Mathematics of Flexible Objects (Japanese version only),

performance of biological brains. It is guided by the principles

written by Yasuichi Suzumori, Kohei Nakajima, Tatsuya

of biological neural computation and achieves functions close

Shinoyama, and Ken Masuya, Ohmsha ISBN 978 -4 -274 -to human cognition by using new algorithmic approaches to22998 -5

emulate how the human brain interacts with the world. From

5 . Molecular Communication: New communication paradigm that

Intel’s HP.

uses biological molecules as information transmission carriers.

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/research/

Biologically produced materials or artificially manufactured

neuromorphic-computing.html

nanoscale biomachines are embedded in the body, and

4 . Soft Robotics: Biological bodies are soft, and their form,

communication is achieved by inducing chemical reactions

structure, mechanism, and information processing mechanisms

to propagate bio-molecules (information molecules) such as

are fundamentally different from any artificial objects we

enzymes and proteins from the transmission nanomachine tocan currently build. We aim for autonomous robots based

the receiving nanomachine.

on the biological systems that possess the characteristics ofMolecular Communication, T. Nakano, A.W. Eckford, T.

organisms, newly defining them as soft robots.

Haraguchi, Cambridge University Press. DOI:

https://softrobot.jp/outline/

https:// doi.org/10 .1017 /CBO9781139149693

─II─

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─VI─

intelligence ELSI score for science and technology: a comparison

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─VII─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

Additional Information

Appendix C

C-1 . Conditions in Europe (related to Chapter 1. 2. 2)2021 . As a part of this it is implementing B5 G/6 G projects.
https://www.entreprises.gouv.fr/fr/strategie5 G
Also, the Spanish government is advancing R&D projects forC-1 -1 . Forming Europe’s Digital Future‘Digital Compass 2030 ’ and ‘Path to the Digital Decade’ define the

Beyond 5 G/6 G.

goals and governance frameworks for the formation of Europe’s
digital future by 2030 .

https://portal.mineco.gob.es/es-es/comunicacion/Paginas/
20220818 -NdP--convocatoria-5 G-+-y-6 G.aspx

Digital Compass 2030
https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-

C-1 -5 . Examples of Collaboration within Europe

2019 -2024 /europe-fit-digital-age/europes-digital-decade-digital-

France and Germany have signed a collaborative declaration on

targets-2030 _en

AI, and since October 2020 , have been advancing various joint
R&D projects centered around Inria and DFKI.

Path to the Digital Decade
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21 _4630

https://www.enseignementsup-recherche.gouv.fr/fr/declarationd-intention-conjointe-formalisant-les-liens-entre-les-reseauxfrancais-et-allemands-en-49019

C-1 -2 . Geopolitical Trends in Europe’s ICT sector
In March 2019 , the European Commission and the EU High
Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, in “EU-

https://www.inria.fr/en/first-five-projects-inrias-partnership -dfki

China: A Strategic Outlook,” repositioned China from a “strategic
partner” to a “technological hegemony-seeking economic

C-1 -6 . Trends in the Green ICT fieldcompetitor” and a partner for cooperation and negotiation, taking

In France, as a national initiative, a roadmap for Digital andinto account China’s rapid growth not only economically andEnvironment was announced in February 2021 , promoting thepolitically but also technologically.

reduction of the environmental footprint in the ICT sector.

h t t p s : / / e u r- l e x . e u r o p a . e u / l e g a l - c o n t e n t / E N / A L L / ? u r i =https://www.ecologie.gouv.fr/nouvelle-etape-faire-converger-

CELEX%3 A52019 JC0005

numerique-lexigence-environnementale-gouvernement-publiefeuille

C-1 -3 . Smart Networks and Services Joint Undertaking
The first round of public recruitment began in January 2022 . In

C-1 -7 . Research and Development Trends in thethe first round, 35 projects including R&D of 6 G and development

Semiconductor Fieldof experimental infrastructure were adopted, and these projects

Specific R&D projects in the semiconductor field are being

started in January 2023 , when the second round of public

implemented under the Key Digital Technology Joint Undertaking

recruitment also began.

(KDT JU), a public-private partnership.

https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/europescales-6 g-

https://www.kdt-ju.europa.eu/

research-investments-and-selects-35 -newprojects-worth-eu250 million
https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/europelaunches-

C-2 . Regarding ICT Device Technology (Related to
Chapter 2 .4 )second-phase-its-6 g-research-and-innovationprogramme
C-2 -1 . Domestic and Overseas Research andDevelopment Examples

C-1 -4 . Research and Development in European Countries
The French government formulated an Acceleration Strategy forIntel Corporation in the United States has developed a 150 GHz

5 G and Future Communication Network Technologies in Julyband wireless receiver chip that integrates a PLL and an ADC

─VIII─

Appendix

using a 22 -nm FinFET, demonstrating a communication speed

one after another, showing improvements in device characteristicsof 128 Gb/s. Also, in Japan, a group from the Tokyo Institute ofrepresented by breakdown voltage. In addition, there has been

Technology and NTT has developed a 300 GHz band wirelessa surge in the development of thin film crystal growth andtransceiver chip using a 65 -nm Bulk CMOS process, and it has

devices corresponding to the metastable structure of α-Ga2 O3 .

reported the development of a phased array radio system throughα-Ga 2 O 3 is the most advanced in research among metastable

packaging technology to arrange the mounted boards at half-

structures because it is a crystal structure formed mainly throughwavelength intervals. NICT, together with the joint researchheteroepitaxial growth on sapphire substrates. FLOSFIA Inc.

institutions conducting the project, is advancing the development

is advancing the development of Schottky Barrier Diodes andof RF front-end circuits, antennas, baseband circuits, andtransistors using α-Ga2 O3 . And, it has started selling DC/DC buckpackaging technology, and they have demonstrated beam steering

converters using α-Ga2 O3 SBDs.

technology in 300 -GHz band wireless communication. Currently,
R&D are underway to enhance beamforming technology andto enable spatial multiplex transmission technology with multielement modules. As for high-output GaN devices, Sumitomo

C-3 . Universal Communication(Related to Chapter 2 .7 )Electric Industries holds the top share for GaN-HEMT astransistors for 5 G base stations. NICT has also reported the highest

C-3 -1 . Supplementary Information on Large-Scale

maximum oscillation frequency fmax in Japan.

Language Models
LLMs that follow the Transformer model can be broadly divided
into discriminative and generative models. Notable discriminative

C-2 -2 . Research and Development Trends of Spatialmodels include BERT 109 ) suitable for tasks such as document

Light Modulators (OPA)
For various methods of spatial light modulators, the Liquid Crystal

classification and question answering, while generative models

on Silicon (LCOS) method has been put into practical use forinclude the GPT series, PaLM 105 ), and LaMDA 130 ).

relatively slow applications with a light scanning speed of up
to 10 kHz. Si-OPA has been reported to control high deflection

C-3 -2 . Additional Information on GPT-3

angle light beams and demonstrate the operation of LiDAR at

When GPT-3 was first announced, it attracted attention because ita wavelength of 1 .5 mm. However, the light beam scanning

could deliver high accuracy in various tasks without fine-tuning

speed of Si-OPA is limited to around 100 kHz, and the powerwith individual task-specific learning data, a method called zero/consumption is also large, over 5 mW per channel. On the otherfew shot. However, for ChatGPT, a model called GPT-3 .5 washand, EOP-OPA has reported more high-performance operational

fine-tuned, and reinforcement learning was implemented to realize

demonstrations with a light beam scanning speed of 2 MHz andthe system.

power consumption of 0 .38 mW at a wavelength of 1 .5 mm. The
table below compares the operating mechanisms, scanning speeds,

C-3 -3 . Supplementary Information on Conversational AI

power consumption, and wavelengths of each method.

In addition to ChatGPT, Meta has released BlenderBot 3 ,Type

Devicemechanism

Opticalscanning

LCOS

Orientation
change~10 kHz

Low●/●

Si-OPA

Thermooptical effect~100 kHz

High

●/×

EOP-POA

EO effect~2 MHzLow●/●

available only in the United States, released in August 2022 131 ),Power
1 .5 -m wavelength/
consumption
Visible lightand Galactica, released in November 15 , 2022 , as being able togenerate scientific articles and explanatory text, but criticized forgenerating discriminatory expressions and inaccurate scientificknowledge, resulting in the suspension of its release just threedays later 132 ). Google announced LaMDA, Language Model for
Dialogue Applications 130 ), in 2021 as a related technology and has

C-2 -3 . Research and Development Trends of Transistors

launched it as a conversational AI service called Bard 133 ) utilizing
LaMDA. Bard later was then modified to run with PaLM2 , theand Diodes
Regarding a vertical structure that is useful as a power device,successor to the LLM PaLM that formed the basis for LaMDA,

steady progress can be seen particularly in the device performanceand it was released with multilingual support, including Japanese.

of Schottky Barrier Diodes. However, their comprehensive device

Elon Musk, famous for his startups Tesla and SpaceX, has alsocharacteristics, represented by the power performance index

been reported to be exploring the development of a conversational[(breakdown voltage × breakdown voltage) / on-resistance], areAI similar to ChatGPT 134 ).

tending towards saturation, and have not yet reached the theoreticallimits of SiC and GaN. Lateral transistors are also being reported

─IX─

The Current and Future Trends of ICT in 2023

The targets of real-world modeling can be divided into people

C-3 -4 . Issues on Conversational AI
ChatGPT, having met a certain standard, seems to have beenand environments (indoor/outdoor artificial/natural objects). 3 D

accepted by society, as it reached 100 million active users withinsensor information such as motion capture, LiDAR, etc., and camera

two months after its release. However, the standard seems to depend

images (still images/videos) are used for the information acquisition.

heavily on the nature of the operator of the conversational AI andIn the past, large-scale devices such as expensive sensors andthe presentation, including the explanation of the purpose of themultiple cameras were used, and enormous work was required forrelease. For instance, Google, which primarily conducts businesssetting up the equipment and data processing, but the use of machine

through a search engine where accuracy of information is prioritized,

learning has made it possible to significantly reduce costs, shorten

experienced a commotion around its stock price, which fell by 9 %processing time, and improve reconstruction accuracy.

after it was revealed that Bard’s answer to a question was inaccurate

A variety of representations such as point cloud data, surface

135 )

.

meshes, and volumetric models are used as 3 D information of theWith the advancement of conversational AI, new issues arereconstructed real environment, but image generation (image rendering

arising that developers of conversational apps and others needaccording to lighting conditions, etc.) based on such 3 D information is

to consider. For example, when developing a voice conversation

essential for making people feel the reality of the space. On the othersystem, if one uses the APIs of the same provider for both

hand, the development and application of GAN technology to generatespeech recognition and speech synthesis to configure the system,

novel high-quality images from a few images without explicitly

the inputs and outputs to the system will be controlled by thatreconstructing 3 D information is also being advanced in many fields.

upon the announcement of the AI

provider. This allows the API provider to collect a large amountIn the area of modeling technology for real people, there hasof input and output data from the dialogue system, and by using

been progress in the development of technology to construct aconversational AI, they can easily build a similar service using

3 D avatar from the image of a single camera image based on

the collected data as training data. It is also possible to constructdeep learning, without using large-scale devices with multiple

services from the inputs and outputs of other dialogue systems, andsensors and cameras. NICT’s REXR technology, released in

to compose more advanced services by combining these dialogue2022 (Appendix Fig. C-1 ), succeeded in constructing a 3 D

services. Therefore, there is a risk that the conversational app one

avatar (surface mesh shape, surface texture, parameters such as

has built could be unknowingly imitated within a more advanced

joint positions, angle inside the body) from the image of a single

conversational service and offered as a service.

webcam, and generating fine facial expressions and subtle body
movements in real-time from arbitrary viewpoint 136 ).

C-3 -5 . LLM Development at NICTAt NICT, in view of the issues with generative LLMs mentioned
earlier, we have been working on R&D for the construction of
discriminative LLMs and their applications from a practicalperspective. We have constructed models such as Japanese BERT,
which was trained with our own 350 GB web text, and a largescale BERT that is 50 times larger. We have been conducting
research and developing applications using the models. To support
the efficient development of LLMs, we have developed RaNNC,
an automatic parallelization deep learning middleware that makes
parallel learning easy regardless of neural network architecture,

Appendix Fig. C-1 Construction of Expressive 3 D Avatars
using REXR

and we have released it as open source.

As for modeling real-world environments, there are also advances in

C-3 -6 . Real-World Modeling & Image Generation

the development of technologies to generate novel high-quality images

Technology
Deep learning technology that models the 3 D structure and surface

from a small number of images. For instance, NeRF is a deep learning

properties of the real world to generate novel realistic images

technique that generates images from arbitrary viewpoints with highhas made rapid progress in recent years. As a core technology

accuracy solely from images taken from multiple viewpoints (without

for spatial computing that integrates the real and digital worlds,

providing 3D object information during training). When the paper was

it is expected to be used in a wide range of fields, such as

published in arXiv, in March 2020, it attracted significant attention due

telecommunications (dialogue and collaboration in shared spaces),to the high quality of its generated images 137). In fact, the paper received

remote work using robots, simulation, remote medical care/a Best Paper Honorable Mention at the ECCV 2020 international

caregiving, and experiential education/training.

conference and has been cited in over 1500 papers in less than two

─X─

Appendix

years. The main feature of NeRF is that it represents 3 D scenes as

IoT and 5 G technologies for collecting and feeding back dynamic

volume densities (a continuum representing the opacity of an object)

data, AI technologies for understanding and predicting situations,rather than surface meshes. On the other hand, challenges with NeRF

and simulation technologies for assisting with planning and early

include its limitation to static scenes and the substantial computational

warning 139). Compared to traditional digital twins, urban digital twins

cost of learning and rendering, but various attempts and improvements

integrate different types, domains, and spatiotemporal data from various

are currently being made to overcome these challenges.

sensors and information sources. By uncovering hidden patterns andGeneral future issues related to this technology include 1) improving

unknown correlations, it can predict the future states and significant

the accuracy and robustness of modeling and image generation and 2)changes of physical objects, validate solutions through simulations, andincreasing the speed of learning, parameter estimation, and rendering

optimize themselves. For urban digital twins, R&D are underway on thefor real-time processing. Since these are trade-offs, it will be necessary

foundations of these systems 137). For instance, real-time traffic data andto develop individual technologies according to the purpose andmachine learning on it can be used to effectively predict and prevent

application. In order to do this, it will be crucial to clarify the technicaltraffic accidents, track and monitor environmental data, track people’s

requirements required for each usage while revealing the human factors

behavior during emergencies or disasters, predict potential risks, andof the users. Furthermore, to avoid the misuse of this technology andsupport disaster prevention and mitigation actions (Appendix Fig. C-3).

ensure its safe and secure use, it will also be necessary to simultaneously

Furthermore, efforts are being made to improve the interoperability ofcreate a scheme for reliable management and authentication of the real-

diverse data and models and to standardize international measures 141).
As a new trend, the integration of edge computing and AI canworld models and images generated by this technology.

enable physical objects to achieve high-performance, low-latency, andC-3 -7 . Urban Digital Twins

high-security recognition and prediction 142). For instance, in intelligent

Digital twins are virtual models of physical objects, which can capture

traffic systems, data on the floating population, traffic flow, weather,physical state changes through IoT data and enable analysis, prediction,

and air quality can be collected by smart cars and other means, andand optimization. In recent years, efforts have been made to use

traffic risks can be determined and predicted in real time on the spot,

digital twins to collect, monitor, and manage urban data, promoting

sharing the results (Appendix Fig. C-3). In edge environments, wherecity planning, environmental management, traffic control, energy use

computational resources and power supply are extremely limited,management, and so on, aiming for smart and sustainable cities 138 ).

technologies such as data reduction, machine learning model lightening,

The introduction of digital twins has started in several cities, and they

distributed machine learning in cooperation with the cloud, andare being utilized for optimizing city planning through simulation andfederated learning for privacy protection are needed.

decision-making support (in Singapore), improving infrastructure

The metaverse is a virtual digital space accessible via theand traffic, and assisting with mobility in emergency situations (innetwork, allowing for highly immersive communication using

Rotterdam, the Netherlands).

AR and VR. In recent years, while the metaverse based on realcities has been progressing, the construction of digital twins using
existing municipal data is also being promoted 143 ). In the future, as
the integration of urban digital twins and the metaverse progresses,
it is expected to not only simulate and visualize cities but also tosolve issues through cooperative work and behavioral changes
across virtual and real boundaries, enabled by the interaction ofvirtual models and physical objects and interactive communication.

C-4 . Quantum ICT (Related to Section 2 .6 )C-4 -1 . Research and Development to Improve Quantum
Computing Accuracy
Research is being conducted to improve the operational accuracyof quantum computation by using two-state quantum systems
Appendix Fig. C-2 Example of Route Guidance to Avoid Air
Pollution Risk

and quantum levels of the third state and higher to expand the

The key technologies for urban digital twins include surveying

computation.

Hilbert space and increase the degrees of flexibility in quantum

and mapping technologies and Building Information Modeling (BIM)that form the foundation for managing urban assets and infrastructure,

─XI─

Acknowledgements
In preparing this overview report, we extend our deepest gratitude to all the staff andstakeholders of the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT)
for their extensive and invaluable cooperation.

Contributors (in Japanese alphabetical order)
Tetsuro Aoki, Mitsuhiro Azuma, Tatsuhiro Adachi, Hiroshi Ando, Yasuki
Ishitani, Kentaro Ishizu, Tetsuya Ido, Shinichiro Inoue, Hisashi Ibaraki,
Kiyotaka Uchimoto, Masao Utiyama, Ryutaro Oi, Kazuhiro Oiwa, Kiyonori
Otake, Akira Otomo, Akifumi Kasamatsu, Hideki Kashioka, Go Kato, Naoto
Kadowaki, Akishi Kamei, Kentaro Kayama, Hisashi Kawai, Seiji Kawamura,
Ikuhiro Kida,

Hiroaki Kojima, Soh Kohatsu, Shohei Kobayashi, Yasuhiro

Koyama, Sarah Connor, Takafumi Suzuki, Norihiko Sekine, Koji Zettsu, Koichi
Semba, Kazumasa Taira, Takahisa Taguchi, Shukichi Tanaka, Takahiro Tanaka,
Takuya Tsugawa, Yoshiaki Tsushima, Hirotaka Terai, Kentaro Torisawa, Eiichi
Naito, Katsuhiro Nakagawa, Yasushi Naruse, Hisanori Nishino, Shinsuke Hara,
Hiroaki Harai, Masahiko Haruno, Masataka Higashiwaki, Chie Fukushima,
Tomoko Fujita, Masakiyo Fujimoto, Mikio Fujiwara, Kenya Furuta, Kyotaro
Maeda, Atsushi Matsuda, Shigehito Miki, Shiho Moriai, Motoaki Yasui,
Hiroyuki Yano, Hiroaki Yamaguchi, Norifumi Yamaguchi, Akira Yamada,Toshiki Yamada, Daisuke Yamamoto, Motojiro Yoshihara, Kanako Wake, Naoya
Wada, Issei Watanabe, Soichi Watanabe,

Planning & Editing
Koji Oshima, Yoshiyuki Kato, Hideyuki Tokuda, Masayo Nakamura

Cover Design
Akie Izumi, Naomi Kawada, Shiho Shono, Kenji Nakayama, Kotaro Yanagisawa

The Current and Future Trends of ICT 2023 Version 1 .0
Published: November 2023
ISBN: 978 -4 -904020 -33 -3
National Institute of Information and Communications Technology
4 -2 -1, Nukui-Kitamachi, Koganei, Tokyo 184 -8795 , Japan
E-mail nict-idi-ictrep@ml.nict.go.jp
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