Simulation analysis of the impact of introducing new energy technology in environmental
policy for both air pollutant and greenhouse gas reduction in Chongqing, China
Qian ZHOU, Feng XU, Nan XIANG, Guofeng ZHANG, Takeshi MIZUNOYA, Yoshiro HIGANO
University of Tsukuba

1. Introduction
Energy is very significant engine for sustainable development. Socio-economic development
requires energy. Figures 1-4 [1] indicate the substantial dependence upon an ever-growing use ofcoal for industrialization and urbanization leading to increasing costs of environmental pollution,such as SO2 emission which contributes to important environmental concerns such as acid rain.
Chongqing is one of the regions seriously damaged by acid rain and has been designated an acidrain control zone by the national government. The acid rain situation is becoming more and moreserious. As the trend shown in Figure 5 and 6 indicates, damage caused by increased water
acidity due to acid rain is potentially becoming more and more serious.
Recently, many studies have been undertaken to protect the environment and improve
economic development. Li et al. [2] analyzed the impact of a recycling tax on metal recycling
and GHG emission. Higano [3] presented research on the construction of environmental-social
economic models, which include both the circulation of economic value and materials, andundertook dynamic simulation analysis on an optimum environmental value-added tax.
Moreover, Sakurai et al. [4] proposed an environment tax rate to maximize GDP under therestriction of the greenhouse gas emission based on an Input-Output (I/O) model. Li et al. [5]simulated the best environment tax rate for policies to introduce renewable energies for GHG
emission reduction in China. Recent research has been undertaken on Chongqing’senvironmental problems. Based on the acid rain data measured at Shapingba weather station inChongqing from 1993 to 2007 and the emission data of SO2 in Chongqing, Guizhou and Sichuan,
He et al., [6] found that acid rain pH value was influenced mainly by SO2 emission. Liao et al., [7]and Tang et al., [8] propose improving industrial and resources structure to control high emission
industries through analysis of the status and character of acid rain in Chongqing.
However, little research has been undertaken on environmental policies, evaluation of newenergy technologies and examination of the impact of new energy technology on both air
pollutant and GHG emission simultaneously via a simulation model. In this study, we propose asynthesized environmental management policy using a computer simulation that includes theintroduction of new energy technologies to improve the air quality of Chongqing. Three submodels of material flow balance model, socio-economic model, energy balance model and one
objective function gross regional product (GRP) are included in the simulation.
2. SO2 emission situation
SO2 emission contributes to important environmental concerns to acid rain. Table2-1 shows thedetailed structure of SO2 emission in Chongqing. Industry emission accounted about 80% of total
amount emission. As a result of that the six industries emission mentioned in table account about
77% of the total industry emission, the six industries have become the source of the most serious
to Chongqing’s acid rain.
3. Methodology
3.1 Simulation software
Using the software package, LINGO, which is a comprehensive software designed to makebuilding and solving linear, nonlinear and integer optimization models faster, easier and moreefficient. We simulate the air pollution emission system; socio-economic system and energy
supply-demand balance system and then get the optimal solution.

3.2 Case setting
Both air pollutant and GHG improvement and new energy utilization should be achieved alongwith economic development. As a result of data limitation, Chongqing uses SO2 in air pollution
monitoring for improving acid rain situation and we adopted SO2 to control air pollutant in thispaper.
Table1 SO2 emission (2010) units(10,000ton)

Total emission
Industry emission

71.94
57.27 (80%)
Mining and Washing of Coal

43.83(77%)

Household emission

13.44(23%)
14.67 (20%)

0.66(1.5%)
Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical 2.99
Products(6.8%)
Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products
13.74(31.3%)
Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals
2.80(6.4%)
Production and Supply of Electric Power and Heat Power 23.64(54.0%)
Other industries

Data source: Chongqing Statistical Yearbook2011

3.3 Industry Classification
Table2 Classifications of industryIndex
123456Industry
Mining and Washing of Coal
Manufacture of Raw Chemical Materials and Chemical Products
Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products
Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals
Production and Supply of Electric Power and Heat Power
Other industries
Table3. Case Setting

SO2 reduce rate in 2020 (%) Technology
Case 0 0Without
Case 5 5With
Case 10 10With
Case 15 15With
Case 20 20With
3.4 Energy supply and demand classification
Energy supply in Chongqing was divided into two categories, conventional energy and newenergy. New energy was supposed to be used in electricity and heat. Energy demand sideincludes household use and industry use, and industry use is divided into Primary industry,
Secondary Industry and Tertiary Industry. The supply of Energy is not less than energy demand.
3.5 New energy utilization technology choice
In this paper, some new energy technologies are introduced in my research. The technologies
used in these projects are technologies choices in this paper such as: Waste Heat Recovery andUtilization project, Solar Cooker Project, Small Hydropower Project, 30MW Biomass Power Generation
Project.

4. Model structure
4.1 Objective function
The objective function was constructed to maximize the total GRP over the target period 11years in order to determine an optimal policy.
()∑
4.2 Energy supply and demand balance model
4.2.1 Total energy supply amount is:
()

( )

∑∑

( )

ES(t): energy supply in the tth year;(t): energy supply from conventional energy industry m;(t): energy supply from new energy industry n;
4.2.2 Energy demand amount is:
()

( )

∑( )

( )

( )

( )

ED (t): Energy demand in the tth year;: Consumption coefficient of industry i;( ): Household energy consumption;( ): Energy export;( ): Energy import()()
4.3 Air pollutant emission model
The total air pollutant amount of SO2 is discharged by economic and social activities:
()

∑( )

( ): Total amount of air pollutant SO2 in the tth year
: Air pollution coefficient of industry i;: Air pollution coefficient of household;4.4 Socio-Economic model
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
X( ): Total product of all the industries in Chongqing;
A: Input-output coefficient matrix;
C(t):Total consumption in the tth year;
I(t): Total investment in the tth year;
5. Expected result

( )

( )

The optimal SO2 emission reducing rate and the total maximized GDP by introducing newtechnologies will be expected through the simulation. Based on the simulation result, developing planfor putting forwards policy, including the introduction of new energy technologies, energy

development plan, financial budget, and new energy distribution also will be expected. Finally, newenergy technology will be proved to be an effective tool in improving air quality, reducing acid rain
destroy and promoting sustainable development.
800

GRP (Billion Yuan)

Primary
Industry

Secondary
Industry

Tertiary
Industry

600
4002000Time (Year)
Fig.1 GRP trend in Chongqing
Data source: Chongqing Statistical Yearbook2011(%)

6050403020100Time (Year)%

Fig.2 Urbanization rate
Data source: Chongqing Statistical Yearbook2011
1009080706050403020100Time (Year)

Fig.3 Coal consumption ration
Data source: Chongqing Statistical Yearbook2011

Energ (Million tons of SCE)

80706050403020100Time (Year)%

Fig.4 Total Energy Consumption in Chongqing
Data source: Chongqing Statistical Yearbook2011

90807060504030201002005200620072008200920102011

Time (Year)Fig.5 Frequency of acid rain in Chongqing
Data source: Chongqing Environment statistical bulletin 2011

4.8

pH

4.7

4.6
4.5
4.4

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Time (Year)Fig.6 pH in Chongqing
Data source: Chongqing Environment statistical bulletin 2010

Reference:[1] Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics (2011) Chongqing Statistical Yearbook.
Chongqing, Chongqing Bureau of Statistics.
[2] Yang Li, Shixiang Zou, Feng Xu, Helmut Yabar, Yoshiro Higano. The impact of introducing
recycling taxes on China`s Envrionmental policy:case study on E-waste recycling, Journal of
SustainableDevelopment,Vol5,No4,April2012.
[3] Higano, Yoshiro, “Kankyoushitsu Programming Model ni Yoru Kankyou Hukakachizei noDousyutsu,” Studies in Regional Science, 26 [1], December 1996, pp.181-187 (in Japanese).
[4] Sakurai, Katsuhiro, Kobayashi, Shintaro, Mizunoya, Takeshi and Higano, Yoshiro,TheImpact of Environmental Tax on the Japanese Economy as a Policy Measure for the Global
Warming –An Analysis through Environmental Economic System Simulation-, Studies inRegional Science, 33 [3], December 2003, pp.49-66 (in Japanese).
[5] Li, Bin and Higano, Yoshiro, “Countermeasures against Global Warming in China From theView of Point of Encouragement of Green Energy-,” Studies in Regional Science, 34 [1],October 2004, pp.117-138 (in Japanese).
[6] Zeneng He, Xiaoping Tang , Bingquan Tan. SO2 Emission and Acid Rain Change inChongqing, Bioinformatics and Biomedical Engineering (iCBBE), 4th International Conference
on 2010, ChengDu, pp1-3.
[7] Liao Zhengjun, Tang Liang. Causes and countermeasures of acid rain in Chongqing.
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