Task 1
1.1
1. 1

Study of System Evaluation

Research and Development Goals

The aim of surveys and studies of Task 1 Systems analysis in WE-NET Phase II isto study an optional scenario for introduction of hydrogen energy and to formulate astrategy for its introduction. With short- and medium-range views, therefore, efforts
should be exerted to identify promising technologies and research and developmenttasks based on the results of assessing the energy consumption, environmental
impacts and economical efficiency of various hydrogen utilization systems, including
those designed to use hydrogen produced not only from renewable energy sources but
also from fossil energy resources. Additionally, as the introduction and thepenetration of the fuel cell are being promoted now by the Government, theintroduction and penetration scenario of hydrogen energy combined with the fuel cell
introduction scenario were examined toward the hydrogen energy society in the
future.
Major items of the FY2001 survey and study plan included: ① The life cycle
assessment (LCA) of the promising systems; The data for making introduction
scenario of fuel cell vehicles were accumulated and LCA method with which a fuelwas treated as a final product was improved, ② A study of systems; surveys of costof hydrogen refueling station and business possibility were performed and cost
analysis on fuel cell systems by learning curve was done, ③ Making introduction
scenario offuel cell; an introduction scenario of fuel cell vehicles was investigatedand made, and the data were summarized for making an introduction scenario of
stationary fuel cell, ④ Investigation of the introduction and penetration scenario
and the strategy for introduction of hydrogen energy with a long-term perspective.
Also a research coordination meeting was organized and held to coordinate
research activities under the WE-NET Project in general. This report summarizes theresults of the FY2001 researches.
1.2
1. 2

Results in FY 2001
200 1

1.2.1

Study
S tudy on Systems(1) Study on cost and business possibility of hydrogen refueling station
In this study, as a part of making of hydrogen introduction scenario for the fuel cellvehicles, the cost of the off-site hydrogen refueling station supplied with by-producthydrogen and the on-site station and business possibility were evaluated based on thehydrogen demand corresponding to the introduction stages of the fuel cell vehicles,-1-and clarified a image of the hydrogen supply infrastructure for the diffusion of thefuel cell vehicles.
In this study, the hydrogen demand calculated for making of introduction scenario
in chapter 3 and the number of the hydrogen refueling station shown in Table 1.2.1-1
were assumed to be a base and total of four cases shown in Table 1.2.1-2 which threewere the off-site stations and one was the on-site station, were assumed.
Table 1.2.11.2.1 - 1 Hydrogen demand and the Number of Hydrogen Refueling Station
Scenario”” (Whole Country)
by “ Introduction Scenario
Year

2006

Beginning ofIntroduction
2010

−
−
BillionNm 3 /year
−

4,732
4,732

50,25550,255514,117
389,703

4,999,315
3,051,904

0.2

1.6

7.4

42.5

56

169

533

2,344

56
0
0
0

56
100
13
0

56
290
119
68

56
463
1,201
624

Penetration Category
Assumed Year
Number of All FCV
Number of Hydrogen FCVHydrogen Demand
Number of Station

Incunabula[Breakdown of Station Type]・ 100Nm 3 /h-Off Site
・ 300Nm 3 /h-Off Site
・ 500Nm 3 /h-Off Site
・ 500Nm 3 /h-On Site

Middle ofIntroduction
2015

Diffusion
Period2020a) Hydrogen supply cost of each hydrogen refueling station
Hydrogen supply costs of four hydrogen refueling stations shown in Table1.2.1-2
were estimated. The costs for the off-site stations of case 1 to case 3 are the sum of
cost of
Table1.2.1Table1.2.1 - 2 Evaluation cases of Hydrogen Supply Cost
Case

StationType

Hydrogen
Production

Transportation
Equipment

1

Off-SiteCompressed H2

CH Trailer

2

Off-Site

Liquid H2

LH Lorry

3

Off-Site

Liquid H2

LH Lorry4

On-Site−−Type of Storageand Refueling
CH Storage−
CH Refueling
LH Storage−
CH Refueling
LH Storage−
LH Refueling
NG Reforming−
CH Refueling

Abbreviation
CH
LCH
LH
RCH

each stage hydrogen production, transportation and refueling station. As for the costsof hydrogen production and transportation, various conditions were revised andadjusted based on the calculation results of “Assessment of hydrogen supply systemwith by-product hydrogen of coke oven gas” reported in FY 2000.
As for the cost of the hydrogen refueling station, the specifications of four stations
were decided and the present costs were estimated. Additionally, the cumulative-2-

number of the hydrogen refueling stations was calculated in accordance with thehydrogen demand of each penetration category shown in Table 1.2.1-1 and the future
cost was estimated by using a learning curve.
Table1.2.1-3 indicates the cost reduction rate of the hydrogen refueling station ofscale of 300Nm 3 /h and Fig1.2.1- 1 indicates the hydrogen supply cost at each period ofhydrogen introduction.
Table1.2.1Table1.2.1 - 3 Cost Reduction of Hydrogen Refueling Station by Learning Curve
Penetration
Category
Hydrogen
Million
DemandNm 3 /yCumulative−
Number
CH-300Million ¥LCH-300
Million ¥LH-300Million ¥RCH-300
Million ¥Present

Incunabula

Beginning ofIntroduction

Middle ofIntroduction

Diffusion
Period

−

21.7

164.7

744.6

4,254.9

1

18

137

616

3517

307.4
304.9
244.4
538.3

238.6
233.3
193.7
386.6

203.5
197.2
167.6
311.8

182.7
175.8
152.0
268.5

162.9
155.7
137.0
228.4

b) Business Possibility of the hydrogen refueling station
The statement of receipts and disbursement was made in accordance with thecalculated hydrogen supply cost mentioned above, business possibility of thehydrogen refueling station was evaluated by using the net present value (NPV) which
was the profit after taxation and before deducting depreciation expense. Hydrogensales price, which became the income of the station, was set to 103.5¥/Nm 3 which was
calculated on the assumption that the efficiency of the fuel cell vehicle is three times
the efficiency of present internal combustion engine, and it was equal to 95 ¥/L of
CH-3001403Hydrogen
Cost (yen/Nm )水素供給コスト［円/Nm3］

120122.0 123.5
111.6
102.8

100

LCH-300

LH-300

RCH-300

Hydrogen production水素製造規模：12t/日
scale : 12 tons/day
110.3
103.3
98.7
91.5

104.4
99.0
85.8

86.4

80

100.9
96.5
82.4

97.6
94.0
79.3 79.2
72.8

60
40
20
0
Present
現状

Incunabula
黎明期

Beginning of
導入初期
Introduction

Middle of
導入中期
Introduction

Diffusion
普及期
PeriodFig. 1.2.11.2.1 - 1 Hydrogen Price at Each Stations (Hydrogen production scale : 12 tons/day)-3-

gasoline sales price. Hydrogen buying prices, which became the expense of the off-sitestation, were 43.6 ¥/Nm 3 in the case of compressed hydrogen and 64.1 ¥/Nm 3 in thecase of liquid hydrogen, which were calculated based on hydrogen production scale of
12ton/day and one way distance of transportation of 50km. Redemption year of thestation was set to 8 year, which was the legal durable years, and availability factor of
facility was set to 85%.
Fig.1.2.1-2 indicates the profit performance of each station of scale of 300 Nm 3 /h.
Zero net present value indicates the break even point in the case of the cut rate by
4%, and plus NPV means the business possibility. The business possibility of eachstation was improved accordance with cost reduction of a hydrogen refueling stationfrom Incunabula to diffusion period, however, some subsidizing policies were neededat the period when the net present value was a minus. The subsidy to assume netpresent value was zero at each penetration stage was shown in Table 1.2.1-4.
(2) Cost Analysis on fuel cell systems by the learning curve
In order to commercialize the fuel cell, it is said that a substantial cost reduction isnecessary and various technical developments are now performed. Additionallyresearch, which analyzes and predicts the possibility of cost reduction by mass
production with learning curve, is performed. In this report we investigated a
possibility of cost reduction of fuel cell systems by using the learning curve.
The learning curve expresses a tendency that the manufacturing cost is reduced byaccumulation of knowledge and it has already been used for analysis about various
industrial products. Progress ratio is generally used to express concisely the situation
Present
Incunabula
Beginning of Introduction
現状 黎明期 導入初期 導入中期 普及期
Middle of Introduction
Diffusion Period
RCH-300

Station Type

-237
ＬＨ-300

LCH-300
-198

9

-12
-34

-82

CH-300

29

-43
-300

-200

-100

128

31
16
-1

-28

-96

88

44

-34

0

65

105
86

100

200

300

Net Present
Value NPV (Million Yen)
正味現在価値［百万円］

Fig.1.2.1Fig.1.2.1 - 2 Change of Net
N et Present Value of Each Stations in accodancewith Future Cost Reduction-4-

Table1.2.1Table1.2.1 - 4 Supplementary Amount for Business Approval of
Hydrogen Refueling Station
Penetration Category
CH − 300① Hydrogen Price
103.5 ¥/Nm 3② Hydrogen Price
86.2 ¥/Nm 3③ Hydrogen Price
44.9 ¥/Nm 3④ Hydrogen Price
37.4 ¥/Nm 3
RH − 300① Hydrogen Price
103.5 ¥/Nm 3② Hydrogen Price
86.2 ¥/Nm 3③ Hydrogen Price
44.9¥/Nm 3④ Hydrogen Price
37.4¥/Nm 3

Initial Cost
Subsidy
Ratio
Subsidy
Ratio
Subsidy
Ratio
Subsidy
Ratio
Initial Cost
Subsidy
Ratio
Subsidy
Ratio
Subsidy
Ratio
Subsidy
Ratio

Present
307.4
47.6
15.5%
149.9
48.8%
149.9
135.2%
470.9
153.2%
538.8
211.6
39.3%
314.0
58.3%
563.9
183.4%
618.6
202.1%(Unit ： Million yen/one station ）Beginning of Middle of Diffusion
Incunabula
Introduction Introduction Period
238.6
203.5
182.7
162.9
(Independence without subsidy)
−
−
−
−
71.0
30.8
6.9
−
29.7%
15.1%
3.8%
334.2
292.8
268.2
244.7
140.1%
143.9%
146.8%
150.2%
389.4
348.0
323.4
300.0
163.3%
171.0%
177.0%
184.2%
386.6
311.8
268.5
228.4
37.7
(Independence without subsidy)
9.7%
−
−
−
140.0
54.2
4.6
−
36.2%
17.4%
1.7%
385.1
298.6
249.0
202.9
161.4%
146.7%
136.2%
124.6%
439.2
350.9
299.9
252.6
184.1%
172.4%
164.1%
155.1%of the cost reduction indicated by the learning curve. Progress ratio is the numericalvalue that indicates how much cost decreases when an accumulation of products
becomes twice. As past examples, it is known that in semiconductor industry progress
ratio is between 70% and 80%, in machine assembly industry that value is between
85% and 95%. The smaller this numerical value is, the more abruptly a cost becomeslow.
In this study, at first the parts and the present cost composition of the fuel cell forvehicleswere investigated, and the technical possibility of the performance

improvement and cost reduction in the future was investigated. As data, the papers
published in International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, the report of A.D.L (The
Arthur Day Little) which is a think tank in U.S. and so on were examined.
Furthermore, the overseas papers, which evaluated the cost reduction of fuel cells by
the learning curve, were investigated. These reported the research results that thecost reduction of fuel cells was explained by the learning curve. It is described inthese papers that the careful and important points, which should be noted when thelearning curve is applied, are the accumulation amount of production and the cost at
an initial stage, the lower limit of the cost and the progress ratio.
Next, a technical possibility of the cost reduction of fuel cells in Japan was
examined. As a preliminary survey, the accumulation amount of product and the cost-5-

by present were first examined and the lower limit of the cost reduction at the time ofmass production of the component parts was examined. We investigated them as thecomponent parts were divided into an electrolytic membrane, an electrode, platinum,a separator and auxiliary parts. It goes without saying that the costs of anelectrolytic membrane and platinum are important of the component parts. However,as a result of considering cost and weight composition, under the present condition, aseparator occupies 80% or more in fuel cell weight and it became clear that the ratioof the separator cost is high. For the cost reduction of the fuel cell, it turns out thatthe cost reduction of a separator is important.
It is targeted by The Agency of Natural Resources and Energy, METI that 50
thousand fuel cell vehicles (FCV) in 2010 and 5 million FCV in 2020 will penetrate inJapan, so the growth of the production amount of the fuel cell for vehicles was
assumed according to this target, and we applied the learning curve in the time frameof 2000 to 2020 and calculated the cost reduction of FCV.
As the component, each initial cost and the progress ratio of an electrolytic
membrane, an electrode, platinum, a separator and auxiliary parts were assumed andwe calculated the fuel cell cost. The electrolytic membrane, the electrode, platinum,and the separator are expressible as the cost per each unit area of the fuel cell, andthe manufacturing cost decreases by the accumulation of knowledge. On the other
hand there is a possibility that the power density per unit area improves by the
research and development. Therefore, the cost reduction by the accumulation ofknowledge and the performance improvement were dealt with separately at first andthen these results were combined to express as a cost of the fuel cell per kW. It issaid that an expected mass production cost of the fuel cell is about 40 dollars per kW,
which almost equals to that of the internal-combustion engine in some publishedreports. It has been clarified that the range of an progress ratio necessary to achieve
this level at the time that the accumulation production amount to 5 million is
between 78% and 82% by calculation results for some scenarios as shown in Table
1.2.1-5.For the installation cost of the hydrogen refueling station, in order to predict
and analyze the cost reduction of hydrogen we investigated some overseas reports forthe penetration scenario of fuel cell vehicles. In an example of the United States, theproblems have been examined whether the pure hydrogen FCV or the on-board
reforming FCV were preferable, and how to produce, to store, and to transporthydrogen. The liquid fuels such as gasoline and methanol were considered to beadvantageous for the on-board reforming FCV from the point of view of the storage
and handling of the fuel. The following fuel selection scenario was also considered. It-6-

is thought that hydrogen can be supplied from the by-product gas of a chemicalindustry and/or the product line for aeronautics and astronautics industries at first.
Table 1.2.11.2.1 - 5

Calculation Results：
Results ： Fuel Cell Cost per 1kW（①〜⑨are assumed case No.）（ Prevalent Fuel Cell Vehicle − Upper Case Value ： 50 thousands 、 Lower Case Value ： 5million ）Scenario
Progress Ratio

High
A

MiddleB

Low
C

High Power（ H ） Middle Power （ M ） Low Power （ L ）Power Density
Power Density
Power Density
2 → 4kW/m 2
2 → 3kW/m 2
2 → 5kW/m 2
① HA
② MA
③ LA

Membrane
78
Electrode78
Separator
78
11,500 ¥/kW
13,447 ¥/kW
15,700 ¥/kW
Peripheral Device
95
1,977 ¥/kW
2,507 ¥/kW
3,186 ¥/kW
Platinum 0.4mg → 0.05mg/cm 2
Membrane
82
④ HB
⑤ MB
⑥ LB
Electrode82
Separator
82
18,550 ¥/kW
21,737 ¥/kW
25,423 ¥/kW
Peripheral Device
95
3,874 ¥/kW
4,984 ¥/kW
6,406 ¥/kW
Platinum 0.4mg → 0.1mg/cm 2
Membrane
88
⑦ HC
⑧ MC
⑨ LC
Electrode88
Separator
88
37,061 ¥/kW
43,504 ¥/kW
50,954 ¥/kW
Peripheral Device
95
11,406 ¥/kW
14,817 ¥/kW
19,192 ¥/kW
Platinum 0.4mg → 0.2mg/cm 2（ Amount of Fuel Cell production until 2000 ： 2,000kW 、 Cost ： 240thousand yen/kW ）At the next stage hydrogen is assumed to be produced from natural gas at theconcentrated large-scale reforming factories, and the transportation in the form ofgaseous hydrogen and liquefied hydrogen are assumed. The on-site natural gas
reforming at the refueling station and hydrogen production by electrolysis using adomestic electricity grid are also considered. Furthermore, the hydrogen production
using solar cell, wind power and biomass are considered to be plausible in the future.
In an example of research for hydrogen penetration scenario, the assumption is set
up that ZEV (zero emission vehicle) regulation, which is to introduce ZEV by 10% in
2003, in California, will bring about a introduction of fuel cell vehicles with a ratio of
about 50% of all ZEV. It is expected that the cost reduction is caused in accordancewith the expansion of the hydrogen supply scale in the scenario for the hydrogen
supply infrastructure. When the hydrogen cost is compared with the gasoline cost interms of the cost per running mile, it has been suggested that the hydrogen price will
be equal to that of gasoline or less in accordance with the expansion of hydrogenenergy supply.
This process is an effect of mass production similar to an effect explained by thelearning curve. The increase of the number of the fuel cell vehicles supported by thehydrogen refueling station and the production scale of on-site reformers will result in
the decrease of hydrogen supply price.

-7-

The numerical value of hydrogen cost used in the report was applied to the learning
curve and regression analysis was done to see the trend of price decrease caused inthis process, and the progress ratios were calculated. It was clarified that the
progress ratio of the cost reduction by the increase of the number of FCV supportedby the hydrogen refueling station was between 75% and 88%, and the progress ratioof the cost reduction by the increase of the production number of on-site reformers
was between 88% and 96%. These progress ratios were in the range of that known
experientially. This finding strongly supports the conclusion that the hydrogen supply
price will becomes equal to that of gasoline.
As mentioned above, this study is investigation and research about analysis andprediction by the learning curve used in cost prediction and its penetration scenariooffuel cells, and these available results as a reference for research and developmentof a fuel cell in Japan was obtained.
1.2.2 Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
Life cycle assessment for vehicle fuels, which covered from fuel production to fuelconsumption reported last fiscal year, was brushed up from three points of view; thefirst was reevaluation of energy efficiency of each process and the second wasreevaluation of energy input for each process in terms of amount of primary energy.
In the later case, energy consumption of primary energy required for each process
was calculated using reciprocal value of efficiency of each process. The third point
was the evaluation of energy consumption and CO 2 emission within Japan. For thispurpose, the systems considered were divided into two processed; the domestic
process and the foreign one.
As for the second point described above, the energy consumption and CO 2 emission
were calculated by the method of cumulation of absolute amount of energy
consumption of each process. The consumed energy at each process of well-to-tank
was calculated in terms of amount of primary energy by tracing back to primary. Theenergy consumption at the last stage, fuel consumption stage, was calculated asenergy required for 1 km running. Total primary energy required for 1 km running inwell-to-wheel and total CO 2 emission were calculated for each system. As a result of
this study it was made possible to compare energy consumption and CO 2 emission
with absolute values, which the comparison reported last fiscal year was relative one
based only on energy efficiency of each process. The method used in this report will
be improved further and the accuracy of data required for analysis of energy
efficiencies and CO 2 emission of each process will be reevaluated, and improved in-8-the future.
1.2.3

Making of Introduction Scenario(1) Making of introduction scenario of fuel cell vehicle
In this study, we investigated and examined an introduction way of fuel cellvehicles (FCV) until 2020 taking into consideration both types of FCV and the fuelsupply infrastructure. As for FCV, two types of FCV were considered; one was purehydrogen FCV which was equipped with pure hydrogen tank, and the other was
on-board reforming FCV which was equipped with hydro carbon fuel tank such as
clean gasoline. In the investigation two or more FCV introduction scenarios werecomposed, and they were compared by various evaluation indices. Indices included
number of vehicles by kinds, number of hydrogen refueling station, social benefits
such as CO 2 emission reduction, energy substitution effect, costs of FCV introduction
and station construction, and benefits of FCV users and station owners. The
requirement to introduce FCV smoothly and the problems to be overcome wereclarified based on the result of this study.
a) Composition of scenario, assumptions and evaluation method
Composition of scenario, assumptions and evaluation method used in this study are
as follows;① Number of FCV were set to 50 thousand in 2010 and 5 million in 2020 inaccordance with the target quantity by The Agency of Natural Resources andEnergy, METI.
② The region for the FCV introduction and the kinds of FCV were set to bus andpassenger car in Japan's three major megalopolises, Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka
at the incunabula stage until 2006 and the initial stage of the introduction until
2010. Afterwards, it was assumed that the FCV will be gradually penetrated tothe surrounding areas, and the vehicle kind will expand to trucks and thespecial cars, such as garbage truck. The OBR vehicles were assumed to be
introduced only for passenger cars.
③ Hydrogen supply capacity was assumed to be 100Nm 3 /h 、 300Nm 3 /h and
500Nm 3 /h for on-site stations and 500Nm 3 /h for off-site station. All stations
were assumed to have compressed hydrogen refueling facility.
④ Based on the estimation of the annual transition of the number of the FCV andthe required number of hydrogen refueling stations, cost for the introduction of
FCVs and stations were estimated. It was assumed to be displayed in this cost-9-

estimation the effect of the cost reduction by mass production according to alearning curve.
⑤ FCV user's profit was assumed to be represented by the additional cost which
was generated by substituting FCVs for existing fuel vehicles (the vehicleacquisition cost and fuel cost for the vehicle duration of service).
⑥ Station owner's profit was assumed to be represented by the value which was
obtained by deducing the initial investment from the present value of theaccumulated profit during business period of the station (net present value:
NTV). The value necessary for keeping NPV positive was considered to be theamount of the subsidy.
b) Evaluation results of scenarios
In this study, two FCV introduction scenarios were evaluated. Pure hydrogen FCV
and on-board hydrogen reforming FCV were assumed to coexiste in one scenario(scenario A) and in another scenario only pure hydrogen FCV was assumed (scenario
B). These two scenarios were analyzed by using the evaluation method described in a).
The summary of the analysis result is as follows;① Fig.1.2.3-1 indicates the penetration transition of the number of the FCV stock.
The figure was obtained on the assumption that the transition penetrationaccorded to the logistic curve expressing a general growth curve. The
penetration transition was decided by both of the numbers of FCV stock at two
time points and the supposed higher limit value. The numbers of FCV stock at
two time points were 50 thousand in 2010 and 5 million in 2020 (target values of
ANRE, METI). As for the higher limit, 50 million was assumed including
numbers of all kinds of vehicle considered in this study. It was however assumed
that the number of present vehicle stock and the composition of vehicle kind did
not change and it was difficult to introduce FCV into the light weight vehicle,
the heavy duty truck, the taxi and so on.

- 10 -

The numberof PCV Stock (×10,000)
FCV保有台数（万台）

6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2005年

2010年

2015年

2020年

2025年

2030年

2035年

2040年

2045年

Fig. 1.2.3-1 Transition of FCV Penetration② Table 1.2.3-1 indicates the change of the number of FCVs by vehicle kinds foreach scenario with time. The data shown in the table were well adjusted to thepenetration transition obtained by ① until 2020 in the scenario A, it was
assumed that OBR vehicle would be introduced in accordance with the condition
shown in Table1.2.3-2. The number of the OBR vehicle penetration in the
scenario A would reach to more or less 2 million which was 40% or less of thewhole in 2020.
Table 1.2.3-1 The number of FCVs by Vehicle Kinds for each Scenario（ Unit ： × 10,000 ）Vehicle Type
Light Duty Truck
Standard-Sized TruckBus
Passenger Car (Pure Hydrogen)
Passenger Car (OBR)
Garbage Car
Total

Scenario A
2010
2020
0.2
42.2
0.0
5.9
0.6
3.8
4.1
251.1
0.0
194.7
0.2
2.2
5.0
499.9

Scenario B
2010
2020
0.2
42.2
0.0
5.9
0.6
3.8
4.1
445.8
0.0
0.0
0.2
2.2
5.0
499.9

Table 1.2.3-2 OBR FCV Ratio in Scenario A ( to the number of Passenger FCV Stock)
2011

2020

20 %

50 %

Note
OBR FCV will increase gradually from 2011 to 2020 andwill decrease after 2020.

③ Table 1.2.3-3 indicates the required number of hydrogen refueling stations forrunning of FCV by the station types. The number of the stations in the scenario
A, which pure hydrogen and OBR FCV coexisted, was 2,300 and that value inthe scenario B, which only pure hydrogen FCV was introduced, was 3,300 in
2020. The number of hydrogen refueling stations can be little in the scenario A
because the OBR FCV can use existing service stations.

- 11 -

Table 1.2.31.2.3 - 3 The Required Number of Hydrogen Refueling Station
Sta tionby Hydrogen Supply Capacities
Supply Capacity
and Conformation
100Nm 3 /h Off-Site
300Nm 3 /h Off-Site
500Nm 3 /h Off-Site
500Nm 3 /h On-Site
Total

Scenario A
2010
2020
56
56
100
463
13
1,201
0
624
169
2,344

Scenario B
2010
2020
56
56
100
580
13
1,779
0
926
169
3,341

④ Table1.2.3-4 indicates the initial investment cost which is the total cost for the
FCV purchase and the installation of the hydrogen refueling station needed for
FCV penetration until 2020. It became 950 and 1,000 billion yen respectively inthe scenario A and in the scenario B. The difference between the initialinvestment costs in the scenario A and that in the scenario B was about 50
billion yen, however the breakdown costs were greatly different between bothscenarios. The influence of the vehicle cost was larger in the scenario A because
the reformer on-board was required. On the other hand the influence ofinstallation cost of the hydrogen refueling stations was larger in scenario B.
Table1.2.3Investment
tment Cost for FCV Introduction
Table1.2.3 - 4 The Cumulative Amount of Initial Inves（ Unit ： Billion Yen ）Category
FCV
Station
Total

Scenario A
2010
2020
48.1
2,93.334.9
6,55.483.0
9,48.7

Scenario B
2010
2020
48.1
74.6
34.9
9,23.783.0
9,98.3⑤ Table 1.2.3-5 shows the amount of hydrogen demand. That value in the scenario
B in which only pure hydrogen vehicle was assumed to be introduced at themarket was larger by about 2 billion Nm 3 /year in 2020.
Table1.2.3Table1.2.3 - 5 Amount of Hydrogen Demand in accordance with FCV Introduction
Scenario
Scenario A
Scenario B（ Unit ： Billion Nm 3 ）
2010
2020
0.17
4.26
0.17
6.17

⑥ Table1.2.3-6 shows the amount of the CO 2 emission reduction by introduction of
FCV. The amounts of the CO 2 emission reduction in the scenario A and B were
almost equal. LCA for fuel was performed on the assumption that hydrogen was
produced from the imported fossil fuel. Primary energy imported to Japan was,therefore, the starting point and hydrogen production, supply and vehicle
running (Port to Wheel) were the range of analysis. As a result, substantially- 12 -

difference between both scenarios was caused only by the difference of theefficiencies at running stage of the vehicle. The amount of the CO2 emission
reduction in the scenario B increased greatly if considered only running stage ofa vehicle, because the amount of CO 2 emission of the pure hydrogen FCV at therunning stage was zero.
Table 1.2.31.2.3 - 6 CO 2 Emission Reduction in Accordance with FCV Introduction（ Unit ： × 10,000t-C/year ）Scenario
2010
2020
Scenario Ａ
4.5
255.1
Scenario Ｂ
4.5
260.7

⑦ Table1.2.3-7 indicates the profit and loss break-even hydrogen cost for FCV
users in 2010. The hydrogen price should be 66 yen/Nm 3 or less for the users to
obtain an economical advantage who substituted a pure hydrogen FCV for aconventional small gasoline passenger vehicle manufactured in 2010. However,
the above-mentioned break-even hydrogen cost became 98 yen/Nm 3 , if theacceleration of the FCV production by the regulation of ZEV (Zero Emission
Vehicle) executed in California, U.S was supposed to give a positive effect on thevehiclemanufacturing

cost,

becauseitwasexpected

that

the

vehiclemanufacturing cost decreased earlier.
Table 1.2.31.2.3 - 7 The BreakBreak - Even Hydrogen
Hydroge n Cost for FCV Users in 2010
Scenario and Case
Scenario A
Scenario B

No ZEV Regulation
Under ZEV Regulation
No ZEV Regulation
Under ZEV Regulation

Hydrogen Cost Gasoline Equivalent Cost
（ Yen/Nm 3 ）（ Yen/L ）
66.2
60.8
98.9
90.9
66.2
60.8
98.9
90.9

⑧ Table 1.2.3-8 shows the amount of the subsidy which should compensate thestation entrepreneur ’s income so that they did not receive an economic loss inthe business period when they sold hydrogen with the break-even pricecalculated in ⑦ . The analysis was performed for eight cases in total because
two hydrogen prime costs of the station entrepreneur were assumed for eachscenario. As for the amount of the subsidy per one station, it was only about 100
million yen and was almost equal to the amount of the subsidy, 90 million yen,
to the CNG station in a present eco-station business.
c) Problems to be solved concerning the introduction of FCVThere are some important problems to be solved for introduction of FCV in various- 13 -

Table 1.2.31.2.3 - 8 The Required Subsidy for Entrepreneurof Hydrogen Refueling Station to Obtain Profit（ Unit ： Billion Yen ）Total Amount of Subsidy
Subsidy（ Accumulatedper
Scenario and CaseOne Station
Amount in 2020 ）No ZEV Regulation
High Prime Cost ＊ ２
2,553
1.09
（ 66¥/Nm 3 ） ＊ １
Scenario
Low Prime Cost
2,233
0.95
A
Under ZEV Regulation
High Prime Cost
28
0.01
（ 98¥/Nm 3 ）23
0.01
Low Prime Cost
No ZEV Regulation
High Prime Cost
3,437
1.03
（ 66¥/Nm 3 ）
2,964
0.89
Low Prime Cost
Scenario
B
Under ZEV Regulation
High Prime Cost
28
0.01
（ 98¥/Nm 3 ）23
0.01
Low Prime Cost
Note
＊ 1 Hydrogen sales price is indicated in parentheses.
＊ 2 High Prime cost is 43.6¥/Nm 3 and low prime cost is 40.0¥/Nm 3 .

aspects; technology, finance, legislation and scenario planning.
◇ Technology
・ Hydrogen on-board storage technology of pure hydrogen FCV. Development andimprovement of on-board reforming technology.
・ Improvement of running efficiency of FCV◇ Finance and Legislation
・ Deregulation and technical standard for hydrogen production facilities andhydrogen refueling station.
・ Accelerationofinvestment

to

FCV

production

facilitiesbyautomobile

companies.
◇ Scenario Planning・ Clarification of possibility of cost reduction of hydrogen refueling station
・ Review and clarification of the types and kinds of FCV・ Promotion policy and management of progress for both vehicle side and stationside.
・ Arrangement of contributory information for selection of an adequate andoptimal pass covering primary energy of hydrogen source, hydrogen production,transportation, storage, utilization (running).
(2)

Study of introduction scenario of stationary fuel cell systems

For making the introduction scenario of the stationary fuel cells, the heat and massbalance was examined based on a basic system flow and the characteristics of FC
performance, such as efficiencies, economical and environmental benefits in various
operation modes were evaluated based on the examination results on heat massbalance. Additionally, an image of the stationary fuel cell systems introduced into

- 14 -

household sector was drawn and types of business in which the introduction of fuelcell systems could be expected to bring about economical and environmental benefits
were summarized.
In the stationary fuel cell system which used hydrogen from city gas, the net power
generation efficiency (AC edge, auxiliary power considered) was about 30% (HHV),
the heat recovery efficiency was about 30% and the overall thermal efficiency wasapproximately 60% in the case of 50% fuel cell stack efficiency. The efficiency of a fuelcell system was evaluated using fuel cell stack efficiency, steam/carbon ratio, theinverter efficiency and so on as parameters. As a result, net power generation
efficiency improved by 3.3% in accordance with an improvement of the fuel cell stackefficiency by 5%. However, the overall thermal efficiency including heat recovery
hardly changed. It was found to be necessary to recover the latent heat in an exhaustgas for the improvement of heat recovery efficiency. In the stationary fuel cellsystems, for which pure hydrogen was supplied, the net power generation efficiency(AC edge, auxiliary power considered) was about 41% and the overall thermal
efficiency was 70% in the case of 50% fuel cell stack efficiency. If hydrogen was
assumed to be produced from city gas and delivered, the net power generation
efficiency and the overall thermal efficiency turned out to be about 25% and 42 %,respectively.
From an evaluation result for various operating patterns of the fuel cell system, it
became clear that an operating pattern mainly for electric power supply was effective
for the fuel cell system with hot water tank. Power generation beyond the heat
demand for hot-water supply was ineffective, and further, even with the same grossthermal efficiency, economical benefit was superior in the case that power generation
efficiency was high. Fig.1.2.3-2 indicates the relation between city gas price andretrenchment amount of utility expense for each efficiencies of a household fuel cellsystem. For obtaining an economical benefit from introduction of a fuel cell system, it
was expected that the system efficiency of the fuel cell became higher and city gas
price became lower.
The city gas was used in 50% of total personal residences, and LPG was used in theremainder. As for LPG, the fuel price was high and much economic benefit can not be
expected by the fuel cell introduction. On the other hand, the fuel cell fueled bykerosene was the most excellent for the economy. It was thought that the stationary
fuel cells in household would be introduced and penetrated mainly to the region
where city gas grid of 13A and 12A is provided from the point of vies economical andenvironmental benefit.

The number of personal houses of three people family or- 15 -

Retrenchment Amount of Light and Fuel Expense（\/year）

100,000

80,000Net generating Eff. ： 40 %Heat Recovery Eff. ： 40 %Combined Eff.
： 80 %

60,000Net generating Eff. ： 30 %Heat Recovery Eff. ： 30 %Combined Eff.
： 60 %

40,000Net generating Eff. ： 35 %Heat Recovery Eff. ： 35 %Combined Eff.
： 70 %

20,000

0
-80

-60

-40

-20

0

3

Reduction in City Gas Cost (\/Nm ）F ig.1.2.3
betweenetween City G as C ost and Retrenchment Amount of Utility Expenseig .1.2.3.1.2.3 - 2 R elation bfor each Fuel cell System Efficiency in Household

more was about 8.67 million in the large megalopolis area where city gas grid wasprovided, and when introducing a fuel cell of 1kW capacity into these houses, 5.7
million kW of the target in 2020 corresponded to about 66%. Especially, theintroduction in the Keihinyou region, the Keihanshin region and the Chykyo region
could be expected. As about half of total number of personal houses in Japan was
supplied with city gas other than 13A and 12A, LPG and kerosene, it was expectedthat the introduction region of the fuel cell system expanded as fuel price of LPG
became cheaper. Additionally, the introduction and the penetration of the fuel cellsystems fueled by pure hydrogen and that kerosene reforming was also expected inthese regions.
The energy consumption in the business sector was investigated and the type ofbusiness, for which fuel cell systems were expected to be introduced, was summarized.
The introduction could be expected in restaurant, preschool, hotel, inn, hospital,
welfare institution, hair and beauty salon, laundry, fitness club and so on. The
possible generation capacity of fuel cell systems was found to be about 5.8 million kW
by a simple trial calculation and 4.4 million kW of the target in 2020 corresponds toabout 75%.
Although the data, such as efficiency, economical and environmental benefits andso on were collected and examined an evaluation of the introduction time, theintroduction scale and demand and supply scale including construction of theinfrastructure and so on was not concretely executed in this fiscal year. An
examination with consideration of the momentary load fluctuation and the partial- 16 -

load efficiency was also not performed. The data will be collected and arranged in thefollowing fiscal year. On the other hand, a technology validation project of stationary
fuel cell systems is now planned by Fuel Cell Commercialization Conference of Japan(FCCJ). A concrete introduction scenario will be planned based on FCCJ’s data. As forbusiness use of fuel cell systems, it is necessary to collect data, such as business type,scale (total floor space) and load factor of each business sector and introduction
region. After then, an evaluation of an optimum fuel cell capacity, economical andenvironment benefit for business use will be performed.
(3) Making of hydrogen energy penetration scenario with a long-term perspective
For the purpose of estimation of the target amount of hydrogen energy introduced
in Japan, the following studies were conducted in this FY.
a) Cost competitiveness of hydrogen energy in the future was evaluated using along-term demand and supply model.
b) The hydrogen demand in Japan was estimated.
c) A target amount of hydrogen introduction was evaluated.
Additionally, as an approach from the technological aspect, the examination resultsof optimization model were investigated and the work frame of the hydrogen
introduction scenario planning was examined.
In the analysis by the long-term energy model, the amount of the resource of
conventional and non-conventional fossil fuel and renewable energy were investigated,and "Super-long-term energy demand and supply model" was constructed, which
could analyze the energy demand and supply in the world and so on logically,
adjusting, and quantitatively. And the possibility of the economy, demand and supply
was examined about the hydrogen energy of the renewable energy origin.
To achieve the above-mentioned purpose, four scenarios of ① BAU (business as
usual) case, ② energy saving promotion case, ③hydrogen introduction promotion case,and ④ energy saving and the hydrogen introduction promotion case were set. The
economic indicator, energy prices, the final energy demand and the composition ofprimary energy supply (hydrogen introduction time of the renewable energy origin,
the introduction amount and so on) and CO 2 emission reduction were provisionallycalculated by various regions in the world and the time series.
Fig. 1.2.3-3 shows the result of energy saving and hydrogen introduction promotion
case and it indicated that the primary energy consumption increased from 9 billion
tons oil equivalent to 20.7 billion tons oil equivalent in the world.. The share of
renewable energy as the hydrogen source increased to 49.5% along with the- 17 -

introduction of the hydrogen energy and the subsequent market extension.
MTOE
25,000207億ﾄﾝ
20.7 billion
TOE
20,000

再生可能ｴﾈRenewable

15,0009 billion
TOE
9 0 億ﾄﾝ

10,000

5,000

Gas
ガス

NuclearHydro
原子力 水力Non conventional gas
非在来型ガスNon conventional oil
非在来型石油

石油
Oil

石炭
Coal
0
1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

Fig.1.2.3Fig.1.2.3 - 3 The amount of primary
p rimary energy supply(Energy saving and hydrogen introduction promotion casecas e

The amount of the hydrogen energy, which occupied in the final energy demand, in
this case was that about 200 million tons oil equivalent began to be introduced from
2020, 1,700 tons oil equivalent in 2050 whose shared was 16.7% (4.2% in BAU case),and 4,900 million tons oil equivalent were introduced in 2100 which occupied theshare by 37.2% (11.8% in BAU case).
If cost reduction was achieved by the investment to research and development,
technological progress and the scale advantage advancing from the prospect of fuelcell systems, the introduction to the market of hydrogen energy was accelerated fromthe first half of 21 st and had a possibility of becoming one of the main.
1.3 Subject in Future
The introduction scenario of the fuel cell vehicle was made on the assumption of
the target penetration values indicated by The Advisory Panel for Commercializationof The Fuel Cell in this FY. And as for making the introduction scenario of thestationary fuel cell, the base data for the scenario planning were examined andassembled. From now on, the brush-up of the scenario will be done together withimprovement of accuracy of the examination. It is necessary to make the introduction
and penetration scenario of the hydrogen energy, which covers from the fuel cell
introduction to the subsequent realization of the hydrogen energy society in the
future.
For making of the introduction scenario of the fuel cell vehicle, the scenario is to behigh probable by reviewing of the introduction amounts and by examining thefollowing items;- 18 -

・ The penetration of the fuel cell depends on the system cost of fuel cell andhydrogen cost. The accuracy of the estimation of the future cost is to be improvedby the brush-up of results of this FY.
・ The fuel and the energy route, which will well fit to the fuel cell vehicles, will beselected. For this purpose, as for the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, liquid hydrogenand metal hydride will be examined and the future costs of the hydrogen fuel cellvehicle will be analyzed according to the fuel tank types of hydrogen.
・ For the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, the way of construction of the infrastructurewith an eye to the future will be made as a scenario based on the analysis of thecharacteristic of the on-site and the off-site hydrogen refueling stations.
For making of a introduction scenario of the stationary fuel cell, the efficiency,
economical and environmental benefits were examined, However, the introduction
scenario is on the way of planning at present. The prediction of a system cost and a
introduction scenario will be made in accordance with the following studies;・ For examination of the possibility of the fuel cell introduction to the region
except for the regions where city gas grid of 13A and 12A is provided,
applicability to the fuel cell of 6A, 6B, 6C and so on will be evaluated.
・ For examination of the stationary fuel cell economy, the operating conditions inaccordance with weather condition in various locations will be designed and therelationship between the operation condition and economy will be estimated.
Especially as for business use, the relationship of optimum fuel cell generation
capacity to various flour area of each business category and economy will beclarified.
For planning of the hydrogen energy penetration scenario, hydrogen produced fromfossil fuel will be combined with the economical simulation model used in this FY.
The sources of hydrogen production will be diversified. More realistic hydrogen
demand will be examined and the hydrogen energy penetration scenario including afuel cell introduction scenario will be reinforced. Additionally, hydrogen technologies
of high cost performance searched by an optimization energy model, and technicalspecifications of the scenario will be examined, and a technical road map of thedevelopment of hydrogen technologies will be made.
As for LCA of candidate systems, the analysis of gross energy efficiency will be
performed for the vehicles and the result will be applied to the fuel choice. Theenergy efficiencies of hydrogen energy systems including fuel cell are examined
continuously for more accurate and precise evaluation.

- 19 -