南海トラフ巨大地震に関する
被害予測と防災対策研究委員会

報

告

書

平成 28 年 3 月

公益社団法人

地盤工学会関西支部

目

次

1章

はじめに ························································ 1-1

2章

地盤特性と被害予測 ·············································· 2-1

1.

序論 ···························································· 2-12.

液状化 ·························································· 2-2
2.1

概要 ························································· 2-2

2.2

2011 年東北大震災による液状化被害と液状化判定法に関する最近の知見 ················· 2-4

2.2.1

東北大震災での液状化と液状化判定 ························· 2-42.2.2

簡易液状化判定法 ········································· 2-7

2.2.3

平成 23 年度浦安市液状化対策技術検討調査による液状化判定 ·· 2-13

2.2.4

三軸とねじり試験に関するその他の研究 ····················· 2-15

2.2.5

まとめ ··················································· 2-16

2.3

繰返し三軸試験と繰返し中空ねじり試験における液状化強度の比較 2-18

2.3.1

研究目的 ················································· 2-18

2.3.2

試料採取 ················································· 2-20

2.3.3

試験条件 ················································· 2-27

2.3.4

試験結果 ················································· 2-30

2.3.5

まとめ ··················································· 2-49

2.4液状化試験と各指針による液状化強度との比較 ··················· 2-50

2.4.1

各指針の液状化判定手法 ··································· 2-50

2.4.2

対象地盤 ················································· 2-55

2.4.3

液状化判定の検討条件 ····································· 2-58

2.4.4

液状化強度の比較 ········································· 2-58

2.4.5

液状化判定結果の比較 ····································· 2-622.5

有効応力解析による液状化判定 ································· 2-66

2.5.1

液状化危険度指数による液状化判定 ························· 2-66

2.5.2

液状化解析方法 ··········································· 2-67

2.5.3

砂の構成式のパラメータの決定方法 ························· 2-68

2.5.4

住之江区泉での有効応力解析結果 ··························· 2-69

2.5.5

西淀川区中島での有効応力解析結果 ························· 2-78

2.6

累積損傷度法による液状化判定 ································· 2-88

2.6.1

判定対象土層 ············································· 2-88

2.6.2

判定方法 ················································· 2-88

2.6.3

判定ケース ··············································· 2-94

2.6.4

判定条件 ················································· 2-95

2.6.5

判定結果 ················································· 2-103

2.6.6

液状化強度比 ············································· 2-105

2.6.7

参考資料 ················································· 2-113

2.7

2.7.1

地盤のモデル化 ··········································· 2-117

2.7.2

液状化予測方法 ··········································· 2-122

2.7.3

液状化予測結果 ··········································· 2-125

2.8
3.

地盤情報データベースを用いた簡易法による液状化予測 ··········· 2-117

まとめ ······················································· 2-136

地盤の揺れやすさ ················································ 2-138
3.1

概要 ························································· 2-138

3.2

サイト特性の基礎調査 ········································· 2-140

3.2.1

既往研究の整理 ··········································· 2-140

3.2.2

現地調査によるサイト特性の調査結果 ······················· 2-150

3.3

揺れやすさマップの基礎調査 ··································· 2-167

3.3.1

調査概要 ················································· 2-167

3.3.2

既存の揺れやすさマップの収集整理 ························· 2-168

3.3.3

既存の揺れやすさマップの信頼性に関する考察 ··············· 2-183

3.3.4

基礎調査のまとめ ········································· 2-1853.4

サイト特性の広域調査 ········································· 2-187

3.4.1

調査概要 ················································· 2-187

3.4.2

阪神間･大阪平野 ·········································· 2-187

3.4.3

浦安市内 ················································· 2-191

3.4.4

諏訪市内 ················································· 2-203

3.5

揺れやすさマップの作成 ······································· 2-212

3.5.1

揺れやすさマップについて ································· 2-212

3.5.2

上部洪積層（Dg1,Ma12）の土質特性のモデル化 ··············· 2-213

3.5.3

揺れやすさマップ（卓越周波数分布図）の作成 ··············· 2-214

3.5.4

揺れやすさマップの検証 ··································· 2-215

3.5.5

揺れやすさマップに関するまとめ ··························· 2-226

3.6

揺れやすさマップの利用方法 ··································· 2-228

3.6.1

本報告書における｢揺れやすさ｣ ····························· 2-228

3.6.2

揺れやすさマップの見方 ··································· 2-229

3.6.3

信頼性 ··················································· 2-231

3.7

揺れやすさマップの作成手順･留意点の整理 ······················ 2-232

3.7.1

揺れやすさマップの概要 ··································· 2-232

3.7.2

揺れやすさマップの作成手順 ······························· 2-233

3.7.3

揺れやすさマップ作成の留意点 ····························· 2-248

3.8
4.

盛土・斜面災害 ·················································· 2-256
4.1

はじめに ····················································· 2-256

4.1.1

研究の背景 ··············································· 2-256

4.1.2

部会 1 チーム 3 の研究活動の概要 ··························· 2-257

4.2

地盤特性と巨大地震時の被害との関連 ··························· 2-258

4.2.1

直下型地震の被害事例 ····································· 2-258

4.2.2

海溝型地震の被害事例 ····································· 2-261

4.2.3

兵庫県南部地震の被害事例と基礎地盤特性の関連性の検討 ····· 2-263

4.2.4

関西圏の地盤特性との関連からの考察 ······················· 2-274

4.3

鉄道盛土 ····················································· 2-286

4.3.1

鉄道盛土・土構造物の被害事例と被害形態の分類 ············· 2-287

4.3.2

鉄道盛土構造物の被害分類 ································· 2-292

4.3.3

鉄道土構造物の耐震基準の変遷 ····························· 2-293

4.3.4

現状の盛土の耐震性能照査法 ······························· 2-294

4.3.5

鉄道土構造物の耐震補強対策 ······························· 2-300

4.4

道路盛土 ····················································· 2-305

4.4.1

道路盛土の防災点検結果と地震被害の関連性の整理 ··········· 2-305

4.4.2

道路盛土の地震時の安定性解析 ····························· 2-308

4.4.3

道路防災点検での地盤情報活用について ····················· 2-310

4.4.4

まとめ ··················································· 2-311

4.5

宅地盛土 ····················································· 2-313

4.5.1

宅地盛土の巨大地震時の被害事例 ··························· 2-313

4.5.2

大規模造成宅地盛土マップ整備状況 ························· 2-314

4.6

大規模造成盛土地の調査 ······································· 2-323

4.6.1

調査地の概要 ············································· 2-323

4.6.2

常時微動の測定結果 ······································· 2-332

4.6.3

H/V スペクトルピーク値と盛土層厚の関係 ··················· 2-336

4.6.4

まとめ ··················································· 2-340

4.7

5.

まとめ ······················································· 2-253

斜面災害 ····················································· 2-341

4.7.1

斜面の巨大地震時の被害事例 ······························· 2-341

4.7.2

斜面の地震被害予測 ······································· 2-343

4.7.3

最新の斜面安定解析手法（SPH 法） ························· 2-346

ハザードマップツール ············································ 2-356
5.1

はじめに ····················································· 2-356

5.2

ハザードマップツールの目的と内容 ····························· 2-357

5.3

ハザードマップツールの情報発信手段 ··························· 2-358

5.4

ハザードマップツールに盛り込む情報 ··························· 2-360

5.4.1

使用データの概要 ········································· 2-360

5.4.2

表示メッシュ ············································· 2-361

5.4.3

地盤情報データ ··········································· 2-361

5.4.4

地震時の被害想定解析結果 ································· 2-363

5.5

ツールの試作 ················································· 2-365

5.5.1

KML ファイル ············································· 2-365

5.5.2

電子ブック（HTML） ······································· 2-369

5.5.3

Google Map での閲覧用ファイル（HTML） ···················· 2-370

5.6

今後の発展 ··················································· 2-371

3章

構造物の耐震性 ·················································· 3-1

1.

はじめに ························································ 3-1

2.

耐震性評価のための入力地震動 ···································· 3-6
2.1

はじめに ····················································· 3-6

2.2

串本町での強震波形の評価 ····································· 3-6

2.2.1

概要 ····················································· 3-6

2.2.2

SMGA モデルと SPGA モデルの違い ··························· 3-7

2.2.3

強震動予測 ··············································· 3-8

2.2.4

予測結果 ················································· 3-10

2.3

田辺市の鉄道盛土での強震波形の評価 ··························· 3-12

2.3.1

概要 ····················································· 3-12

2.3.2

強震動予測 ··············································· 3-12

2.3.3

予測結果 ················································· 3-14

2.4

大阪市此花区の鉄道盛土での強震波形の評価 ····················· 3-16

2.4.1

概要 ····················································· 3-16

2.4.2

地盤震動特性の評価 ······································· 3-16

2.4.3

入力地震動の設定 ········································· 3-18

2.5

大阪市平野区の鉄道盛土での強震波形の評価 ····················· 3-19

2.5.1

概要 ····················································· 3-19

2.5.2

地盤震動特性の評価 ······································· 3-19

2.5.3

入力地震動の設定 ········································· 3-20

2.6

JR きのくに線沿いでの強震波形の評価 ·························· 3-21

2.6.1

概要 ····················································· 3-21

2.6.2

予測手法 ················································· 3-22

2.6.3

予測地震動の特徴 ········································· 3-232.7山陽新幹線(神戸市西区)での強震波形の評価 ····················· 3-25

2.7.1

概要 ····················································· 3-25

2.7.2

地盤震動特性の評価 ······································· 3-25

2.7.32.8

紀ノ川堤防での強震波形の評価 ································· 3-28

2.8.1

概要 ····················································· 3-28

2.8.2

地盤震動特性の評価 ······································· 3-28

2.8.3

予測手法・結果 ··········································· 3-29

2.9
3.

予測手法・結果 ··········································· 3-26

まとめ ······················································· 3-30

各種構造物 ······················································ 3-34
3.1

鉄道 ························································· 3-34

3.1.1

盛土 ····················································· 3-34

3.1.2

無筋コンクリート橋脚 ····································· 3-44

3.1.3

組積造橋脚 ··············································· 3-563.2

道路 ························································· 3-67

3.2.1

道路盛土の地震危険度マクロ評価 ··························· 3-67

3.2.2

Newmark 法による道路盛土の耐震性能評価 ··················· 3-72

3.2.3

道路盛土などによる広域津波多重防御 ······················· 3-76

3.2.4

重力（1g）場の模型振動実験における傾斜盛土が橋梁の応答に及ぼす影響 ············ 3-80

3.3河川堤防 ····················································· 3-91

3.3.1

地震による河川堤防の被害と耐震性の考え方 ················· 3-91

3.3.2

河川堤防の耐震性評価方法 ································· 3-92

3.3.3

南海トラフ地震による堤防沈下量の試算（慣用法） ··········· 3-94

3.3.4

南海トラフ地震による堤防沈下量の試算（動的解析） ········· 3-98

3.3.5

粒子法を用いた堤防の大変形解析（動的解析） ··············· 3-99

3.4

埋設構造物 ··················································· 3-103

3.4.1

強震時の埋設管の地盤との動的相互作用に関する実験 ········· 3-103

3.4.2

断層用鋼管 ··············································· 3-114

3.4.3

液状化地盤中の地中埋設管路の変形挙動 ····················· 3-125

3.5

津波による湾口防波堤の被災メカニズム ························· 3-134

3.5.1

はじめに ················································· 3-134

3.5.2

拡張型相似則 ············································· 3-135

3.5.3

遠心模型実験 ············································· 3-135

3.5.4

数値解析 ················································· 3-138

3.5.5

まとめ ··················································· 3-139

3.6

コンビナートと津波 ··········································· 3-144

3.6.1

地震・津波被害想定検討 ··································· 3-144

3.6.2

盛土による狭域多重防御 ··································· 3-195

3.7

ダム ························································· 3-198

3.7.1

はじめに ················································· 3-198

3.7.2

対象地および入力条件 ····································· 3-198

3.7.3

有限要素モデル ··········································· 3-198

3.7.4

結果と検討 ··············································· 3-200

3.7.5

結論 ····················································· 3-203

3.8

津波と液状化の複合作用による杭基礎を有する
建築物の転倒メカニズム ······················ 3-205

3.8.1

はじめに ················································· 3-205

3.8.2

飽和砂質地盤上の杭基礎を有する建築物に対する遠心模型実験 · 3-208

3.8.3

飽和砂質地盤上の杭基礎を有する建築物に対する2 次元有効応力解析 ·························· 3-216

3.8.4

結論 ····················································· 3-222

4章

被災後のロジスティクス ·········································· 4-1

1.

序論 ···························································· 4-1

2.

手法 ···························································· 4-1

3.

サンフランシスコにおけるリジリエンス評価 ························ 4-2

4.

紀伊半島のロジスティクスのリジリエンス評価 ······················ 4-4

5.

ヒアリング調査の結果 ············································ 4-7
5.1

ロジスティクスを担う側 ······································· 4-7

5.1.1

NTT インフラネット株式会社 ······························· 4-7

5.1.2

陸上自衛隊 ··············································· 4-7

5.1.3

西日本旅客鉄道株式会社 ··································· 4-8

5.1.4

和歌山県 LP ガス協会 ······································ 4-8

5.1.5

近畿地方整備局 ··········································· 4-8

5.2

ロジスティクスに頼る側 ······································· 4-8

5.2.1

串本町役場 ··············································· 4-8

5.2.2

くしもと町立病院 ········································· 4-9

6.

リジリエンス評価シート（暫定版） ································ 4-9

7.

まとめと今後の課題 ·············································· 4-13

5章

おわりに ························································ 5-1