Global status of coal power
Pre-Covid19 baseline analysis

Leo Roberts, Chris Littlecott, Jesse Burton, and James Hawkins
July 2020

Key Findings #1 – coal phase out & OECD
• This global status of coal power review provides a baseline of coal power generation trends prior
to the impact of the Covid19 pandemic, based on datasets running to December 2019.
• Our analysis for this review includes the first ever ranking of OECD & EU28 progress on coaltransition. We find that 71% of OECD & EU28 member countries are already pursuing coal phaseout aims, with 58% on track to be coal free by 2030.
• Our assessment of OECD & EU28 progress brings together metrics for electricity generation;
existing capacity; new project pipeline; and government commitments. We find that Japan isranked bottom of the OECD & EU28, trailing behind South Korea and Poland. Turkey has thelargest pipeline of new coal projects at earlier stages of development (31GW), but has anopportunity to stop these entering into construction.
• Even Japan is now recognising the need to address coal use. It announced in early July 2020 that it
is aiming to retire 100 coal units by 2030 – however it is also still pursuing new coal plants athome and abroad.
• Using a 2010 baseline, we calculate that Japan’s intention to close these coal plants over the next
decade means that on aggregate 52% of OECD & EU28 operating capacity has either retired
already or is expected to retire by 2030.
2

Key Findings #2 – new coal risk & non-OECD• As of January 2020, there were 56 countries that no longer had any new coal projects under development, having previously had orconsidered coal-fired power. This is up from 52 in 2019. However, there were still 52 countries with a pipeline of new coal projects
under development. Our assessment finds that at least half of them could readily commit to no new coal projects entering into
construction, as they implement their Covid19 recovery plans. The risk of new coal plant construction was concentrated in just 15
non-OECD countries.
• The Covid19-induced economic recession challenges the case for new coal power generation and increases the importance of policy
makers pursuing sustainable, resilient, and clean energy investments.
• Our analysis finds that as of January 2020, 14 non-OECD countries with existing coal capacity can immediately commit to no new coaland consider phase-out pathways, as they have no projects under development.

• Ahead of the Covid19 crisis, a further 20 non-OECD countries were already well-positioned to commit to no new coal:➢ 11 of these are currently coal-free countries that can avoid the economic risks of coal by leapfrogging straight to clean energy.
➢ 9 have existing coal plants and some new projects at early stages of development but nothing currently under construction.

• China is home to over half the world’s existing coal capacity and projects under construction. Provincial leaders are actively
encouraging new coal plants to be built to stimulate economic activity, despite overcapacity and high risk of stranded assets. The
pipeline of new projects in China has further increased during the first half of 2020, with 17 GW of new projects permitted throughJune, more than all of 2018 and 2019 combined. Although more than half of existing coal plants are currently not profitable, central
government ministries have still not taken strong measures to restrict new coal plant construction and appear to be relaxing policies toallow an additional 200+ GW to be built by 2025. China’s next Five Year Plan will need to actively restrict and reduce coal capacity in3order for China to meet its climate commitments.

Contents• Key Findings• Introduction:• Why coal matters for climate action• From dirty coal to clean energy• The emerging impacts of the Covid19 pandemic on coal power generation• Methodology, data sources, future updates• The global distribution of coal power: trends and challenges• Coal transition progress in OECD and EU28 Countries• Coal transition progress in non-OECD countries
4Introduction: why coal matters for climate action (1)Coal use must decline first and fastest of all fossil fuels in order to achieve global climate goals.

2017:

2020:
Strong action this decade to cut emissions from all fossil
fuels - especially coal - is essential for 1.5°C, or even 2°C,
pathways (Carbon Brief analysis of IPCC scenarios).

5

Introduction: why coal matters for climate action (2)•Unprecedented action is required this decade to cut emissions from all fossil
fuels to achieve 1.5°C and 2°C pathways. Coal use must decline first andfastest, initially in electricity generation but also for industrial uses.

•

Coal is the most carbon intensive fossil fuel used in electricity generation,accounting for 30% of global CO2 emissions in 2018. (IEA 2019)•

Coal-fired power plants were the single largest contributor to the growth inemissions observed in 2018, with an increase of 2.9%, or 280 Mt, comparedwith 2017 levels, exceeding 10 Gt for the first time. (IEA 2019)•

Analyses find that unabated coal-fired power generation should be reduced
to 80% below 2010 levels by 2030 and phased out before 2040 in order toachieve 1.5°C and 2°C pathways that do not rely on large-scale negativeemissions deployment. (Carbon Brief 2020)•

Integrated Assessment Models consider the different socioeconomic drivers ofemissions and the relative starting conditions of electricity systems acrossdifferent groupings of countries. (Climate Analytics 2019)•

OECD & EU28 countries are better positioned to complete an earlier transition
from coal to clean electricity generation than most non-OECD countries.
Indicative target dates for coal phase out are therefore 2030 for OECD & EU28
and 2040 for non-OECD countries. Even this later date requires action now tostop new coal plant construction and begin efforts to reduce coal power
generation and retire existing power plants.

Source: Climate Analytics analysis of coal in IPCC scenarios

6

Introduction: from dirty coal to clean energy
Throughout 2019, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres
called on governments to commit to the actions necessary
to keep the goals of the Paris Agreement within grasp. He
repeatedly highlighted the need to:• Stop building new coal power plants by 2020
• Curtail current coal capacity• End subsidies for fossil fuels(including finance for coal plants)• Tax pollution, not people(including improved carbon pricing)
These core actions are even more important as the world
aims to "Build Back Better" after Covid19. Economic
recovery packages offer an enormous opportunity toaddress poverty, health, jobs, and climate change.

This global status of coal power review identifies where thecoal to clean transition is accelerating and highlights where
further attention is needed to enable a green recovery
pathway.
7

Introduction: the emerging impacts of the Covid19
pandemic on coal power generation••

The IEA projects that:• Coal demand could decline by 8% in 2020, in large part due to afall in electricity demand of nearly 5% over the course of theyear, pushing down output from coal-fired generators by morethan 10%.
• The recovery of coal demand for industry and electricity
generation in China limits the global decline in coal demand.
Coal is the biggest loser in power generation globally, with the share of
renewables increasing to record levels in both developing anddeveloped countries.

8

Methodology, data sources, future updates• Our analysis is based on a combination of publicly available data of operating and proposed coal
power plants from Global Energy Monitor (aggregated from plant- to country-level); electricity
generation data provided by Ember; and E3G analysis of political commitments and policy
developments.
• Aggregating this data to the country level allows us to build a comparative picture of progress
among economic peers and regional groupings.
• Unless otherwise stated, all data relates to the January 2020 release of Global Energy Monitor’s
Global Coal Plant Tracker and the Ember Electricity Review 2020, released in March 2020.
• This first edition of our global status of coal power review is a means of us sharing our initial
analysis in order to provide a baseline of trends prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
• The following slides provide some ‘spotlight’ insights that highlight and analyse new andemerging trends from the first half of 2020 that will feature in the next releases of the datasets.
• We aim to update our analysis as new data becomes available, either on an annual or biannual
basis. We are working with partners to develop additional tools and data visualisations that canbe used more widely.
9The global distribution of coal
power generation 2020:
trends and challenges

Key Points: global distribution of coal power• As of January 2020 there were already more countries without any
new coal power generation projects under development (56) thanthose with a project pipeline (52), a trend that was likely tocontinue even before the Covid19 economic slowdown hit.
• At least half of the countries with a coal project pipeline could
readily commit to ‘no new coal’.
• The number of coal projects that are cancelled has increased every
year since 2015. Again, this trend is only likely to increase with theimpacts of Covid19.

11

Overview of global coal capacity and pipeline:
Global distribution by status

While total global capacity has
only grown slightly since 2015, thepast five years has seen a sharp
increase in the number of coalplants cancelled each year, as the
economic case for new coalcapacity declines and public andprivate sources of finance growscarcer.

Source/Data note: E3G analysis of Global Coal Plant Tracker data. Data based on July updates to GCPT dataset with the exception of 2020, for which only January data is available at the time of analysis.

12Regional distribution of global coal capacity andpipeline of proposed new projects
China is home to half the world’s coal power generation. It is currently still adding new coal
power plants, but the economics of these plants is poor due to overcapacity and low
utilisation rates. China had previously set an intended cap of 1,100GW of coal capacity by
2020, but this is at risk of being breached. China has however already retired over 100GW ofrelatively older and smaller power plants.
The OECD & EU28 are collectively home to a quarter of world coal power generation. New coalconstruction in the OECD is limited to Japan, South Korea and Turkey - and slowing in each case.
India has the world’s third largest fleet ofoperational coal power plants and has apipeline of proposed new projects. But overrecent years cancellations have increased,
the economic case for coal has declined,
and India is now adding more renewables
than coal each year.

-101

-197

The USA currently has the second
largest fleet but is continuing to see a
rapid retirement of older power
plants. There are no new coal power
plants under development in the USA.

Outside of China and India, theremaining coal plant development
pipeline is concentrated in South
East Asia, Bangladesh, Pakistan,and South Africa.

-107

13

The global trend towards ‘no new coal’• As of January 2020, there were 56 countries that no longer have any new coal projects under development,
having previously had or considered coal-fired power. This is up from 52 in 2019.
• As of January 2020, there were still 52 countries that have coal power projects under development (‘in thepipeline’). This is down from 57 in 2019.
➢ As of June 2020, we identify that at least 26 of these countries are in a position to commit to no new coal plants entering construction.
➢ This would mean half of countries with a project pipeline can avoid risky coal projects in their economic recovery.

• Market dynamics in many countries have moved quicker than government policy. Governments have an
opportunity to confirm that they will not permit new coal plants to be constructed.

14

Coal transition progress inOECD & EU28 countries

Coal transition in the OECD & EU28: headlines
Our first ever ranking of the coal transition across OECD & EU28 countries finds that:• 58% of OECD & EU28 countries will be coal free by 2030. A further 13% of countries are actively working on coal phase out
commitments or policies.
• Using a 2010 baseline, we calculate that on aggregate 52% of OECD & EU28 operating capacity has either retired already or
is expected to retire by 2030.

• The USA alone represents 45% of OECD coal capacity. It has zero projects in the development pipeline and closures ofexisting plants are accelerating in spite of White House rhetoric. US coal generation has halved since its 2007 peak, while
81% of avoided economy-wide US GHG emissions since 2010 has been due to the decline in coal.
• Meanwhile, the EU is in an unofficial race with the USA over who can achieve a coal exit quickest. Half of the capacity in
Spain closed in June 2020. Overall, the EU is now has just 50GW without a retirement date. Similarly, the UK recently
achieved a record period of coal-free electricity generation spanning more than 60 days.
• The OECD as a whole still has 39GW of proposed new coal projects, of which 81% is in Turkey alone, however none of theseprojects make economic sense without heavy state subsidies.
• In spite of the recent announcement that it would aim to retire 100 existing coal plants by 2030, Japan’s commitment topursuing new coal construction puts it bottom of the rankings.
16

Electricity generation trends in OECD and EU28
Coal share of electricity generation in OECD and EU
100%

90%

Coal share in electricity generation (%)

80%

UK

70%

Germany

USA

60%

Australia
Japan

50%

Over the past two
decades, the share ofcoal in electricity
generation has
consistently fallen in all
major OECD and EU28
countries except Turkey,
South Korea and Japan.

South Korea

Turkey40%

MexicoPoland30%

Other EU
20%

10%

Reductions in coal
power generation haveaccelerated over the
past 5 years, a trend we
expect to continue into
2021 and beyond.

0%
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Source: E3G analysis of Ember Global Electricity Review dataset

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

17

Coal transition progress ranking: OECD & EU28 (1)Spotlight: In
Germany thecontroversial new
Datteln power
plant has finallyentered operation
while the proposed
Stade project has
been cancelled by
the coal exit law,meaning Germany
now has no
projects underdevelopment.
Spotlight: In Spain,
half of the 10GW of
operating capacity
closed in June 2020.
18

Coal transition progress ranking: OECD & EU28 (2)• Our assessment of OECD & EU28 progress brings together metrics for electricity generation, existing capacity, newproject pipeline, and government policies.

• We find that Japan is ranked bottom of the OECD & EU28, trailing behind South Korea and Poland. Turkey has thelargest pipeline of new coal projects at earlier stages of development (31GW), but has an opportunity to stop theseentering into construction.
• 10 countries are already coal-free, while a further 14 countries will phase out coal power generation by 2030 (58%of the OECD & EU28).

• 5 countries (Germany, Chile, Norway, Mexico, Spain) have either made a coal phase-out commitment or are working
on policy measures, but have not yet aligned their phase out plans with a 2030 date. Together these two groups
total 71% of OECD & EU28 countries.
• The remaining 12 countries have not yet committed to a coal phase-out timeline. Seven of these have a pipeline of
new coal projects, with 21GW under construction and a further 39GW at earlier stages. Japan has 9GW underconstruction, while Turkey alone has 31GW at earlier stages of project development. These 12 account for 35% of
the operating coal in the OECD.
• The USA is home to 45% of OECD coal capacity. It has no new coal projects under development and has already
retired 107GW over the past decade and a further 46GW already scheduled to retire.
19

Coal closures increasing across OECD & EU28
• Our analysis for this global status of coal power review includes anassessment of progress towards coal phase out across OECD & EU28.
• We first generated a snapshot of progress by comparing the level ofscheduled retirements of coal power plants against the total operating
capacity in place as of January 2020. (Table 1)• When compared to the January 2020 total, we find that 31% of OECD &EU28 coal capacity is scheduled for closure before 2030. Including Japan’s
recent announcement of intended closures increases this figure to 35% ofclosures by 2030. A further 6% currently has a post-2030 closure date.

Table 1: 2020 snapshot of progress
GW%

January 2020 operating capacity

543.5

Scheduled retirements 2020-2030

166.5

30.6%

Plus estimated Japan retirements by 2030

188.4

34.7%

Plus expected post-2030 retirements*

219.9

40.5%

• However, the exit from coal in OECD & EU28 countries has beengathering pace over the past decade, so a more accurate approach comesfrom including power plant retirements since 2010. (Table 2)

Table 2:Tracking OECD & EU28 progress since 2010

• When assessed against this 2010 starting point, Japan’s recent
announcement of intended closures means that 52% of OECD & EU28
coal capacity has either closed already or is scheduled to close by 2030.

2010-2020 operating capacity

740.2

Completed retirements 2010-2019

196.7

26.6%

Scheduled retirements 2020-2030

166.5

22.5%

Total retirements 2010-2030

363.2

49.1%

Plus estimated Japan retirements by 2030

385.1

52.0%

Plus expected post-2030 retirements*

416.6

56.3%

• This % figure will increase as further plant retirements and national phaseout commitments are announced. However it will decrease if substantial
new capacity is added. Japan alone currently has 9GW of coal power
plants under construction, which would maintain coal generation at asimilar level in the electricity mix even as older power plants retire.

GW

%

20
*Additional capacity expected for closure beyond 2030 includes 17 GW in Germany; 9 GW in South Chungcheong Province, South Korea; 3.7 GW in Chile; and 1.8 GW in Mexico.

Positive progress: towards a coal-free EU• Coal is uncompetitive and in decline across the EU: coal-fired electricity
generation fell 48% in the period 2012-2019 and 24% between 2018 and2019.
• EU28 countries have already seen 74GW of capacity retire 2010-2019, andthis is accelerating (Austria & Sweden recently retired their last plants aheadof schedule).
• 15 countries have announced a coal exit, and the aggregate total of
Europe’s retirements + commitments since 2010 is already 167GW.

• There is now 50GW of capacity without a phase out date, principally in
Poland, Czechia, Bulgaria, and Romania. EU support through the Just
Transition Fund and European Green Deal can help accelerate regionaltransitions and investment in clean energy.
• EU-wide phase-out is not yet consistent with 2030, however, including~17GW of capacity in Germany that may retire beyond 2030.
• Recent analysis by CarbonTracker Initiative & Rocky Mountain Institutefound that 81% of the 143GW coal fleet is uncompetitive in 2020.
• Phasing out and replacing uncompetitive coal plants with renewable energy
plus storage would generate savings of $10 billion in 2020, $16 billion in
2022 and $21 billion in 2025.

EBC, 202021

Positive progress: UK breaking records, andSpain closed half of its capacity in June

Spotlight: Spain

Spotlight: UK

Spain saw nearly 50% of its 9.5GW capacity retire inJune 2020. Utility companies decided not to upgrade
pollution controls to meet the air quality standards ofthe EU Industrial Emissions Directive, instead deciding toclose. Coal power generation was no longer
economically viable in a context of increased carbon
prices and competition from low cost renewables.

Coal power generation was the source of 40% of UK electricity
in 2012. In Spring 2020, the GB grid ran continuously with zerocoal generation for over 60 days (a period which only ended
when a coal plant was tested following maintenance).
22

Positive progress: Rapid decline of coal in USA
Spotlight: USA• The US EIA forecasts that the coal share of electricity generation
will fall from 24% in 2019 to 17% in 2020 – a collapse from 45% a
decade ago.
• The USA has no coal plants in the pipeline, despite Federal pro-coalrhetoric. Plant closures have accelerated under President Trump,and coal plants are also running less.
• 2019 saw the largest fall of coal use on record, as generation fell
15.7%.
• 79% of 236GW coal capacity is cheaper to close than to run andsavings of $10 billion annually could be realised today.

EE News
EIA, 2020• Demand has fallen further due to Covid19, with coal falling fastest
while renewable and gas shares are expected to grow.
• US coal generation has halved since its 2007 peak, while 81% of
avoided economy-wide emissions since 2010 has been due to thedecline in coal.

23Germany: Coal phase out moves forward but willneed to accelerate further
Spotlight: Germany•

On 3 July 2020 Germany adopted a coal phase out law
with accompanying financial support for coal regions.

•

Germany is the first of the global Top 10 coal users tocommit to a coal exit, contributing to global
momentum.

•

However the proposed end date of ‘by 2038’ is notcompatible with Paris Agreement pathways. Market
dynamics and civil society pressure both point to theneed for an accelerated timeframe.

•

In June 2020 the new Datteln 4 coal plant enteredoperation, having been under construction for close to a
decade. Germany’s only other proposed coal plant(Stade, Dow Chemical) has been cancelled following the
adoption of the coal phase out law.

•

The share of coal in net electricity generation is at
historic low (16% in Apr 2020), while renewables thrived
in first half of 2020 (55.7%)
24

Japan: phasing out old plants but clinging to new
Spotlight: Japan• Japan's announcement in early July 2020 that it willclose older and ‘less efficient’ plants indicates that coalphase out is climbing the political agenda.
• However, the goal is not a new policy, and ~35GW of capacity
would likely remain operational in 2030. Unless the Basic
Energy Plan is updated to reduce the share of coal in 2030,
the current plans leave further new coal plant developmenton the table.
• The move towards ‘higher efficiency’ plants is part of astrategy to keep the pipeline of new plants open domesticallyand overseas but ignores lifetime CO2 emissions.
• Japan's review of coal export finance (due in July 2020) is
expected to tighten rules on lowest efficiency plants, but still
support overseas coal projects.
• A fleet of higher efficiency coal plants would not be
consistent with the emissions intensity achievements neededin the power sector for meeting 1.5 or 2°C.
25

Coal transition progressin non-OECD countries

Key points on the coal transition in non-OECD
countries• Our analysis finds that as of January 2020, 14 non-OECD countries with operating coal can immediately
commit to no new coal and consider phase-out pathways, as they have no projects under development.
• Ahead of the Covid19 crisis, a further 20 countries were already well-positioned to commit to no new coal:➢ 11 of these are currently coal-free countries that can avoid the economic risks of coal by leapfrogging
straight to clean energy (as Egypt has done by stepping away from Hamrawein project in April 2020).
➢ 9 have existing coal projects but nothing currently under construction – moving away from their pipelines
would put them on the pathway to a coal free future and avoid stranded assets.
➢ We anticipate that these numbers will increase as a result of post-Covid19 economic decision-making.
• The vast majority of global coal expansion risk was concentrated in just 15 countries which were constructing
new plants and had further projects at earlier stages of development. The Covid19 economic crisis and recovery
presents an opening for them to reconsider investment plans, to avoid locking in non-performing assets, vscompetitive renewables.
• There remains a risk that policy short-termism around Covid19 recovery drives the rebound of coal generationand construction, and locks in uneconomic new plants. Recent analysis of China shows that provincial economic
recovery goals are driving investment in uneconomic new coal projects. The pipeline of new projects in China
has further increased during the first half of 2020, with 17GW of new projects permitted through June, morethan all of 2018 and 2019 combined.
27

Electricity generation trends in non-OECD
Coal share of electricity generation in non-OECD members of
the G20

Spotlight:

100%

•

South Africa
90%

China
80%

•

70%

•

India
60%

Indonesia

•

50%
40%
30%

•

20%

Russia10%

Brazil0%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Brazil

China

India

Indonesia

RussiaSouth Africa

Overcapacity and the plummeting cost of renewables meanscoal is likely to have seen its peak share in electricity generationin India, which aims to be a global leader in solar power.
South Africa and Russia are also seeing declines in the share ofgeneration from their ageing and inefficient coal fleets.
Coal construction is continuing in China, further intensifying
overcapacity and falling load factors.
Falling demand and over-capacity in Indonesia could leave theState plugging the revenue shortfall faced by state-owned
utility PLN. Despite such risks, in June 2020 South Korea
approved financing for the Jawa 9+10 coal power plants.
Coal-fired power projects failed to secure capacity contracts inrecent auctions in Brazil.

Generally, coal generating capacity in non-OECD
tends to be younger than in the OECD. The structuraldynamics already underway in the OECD will be
repeated in non-OECD over the coming decades,
particularly given the falling cost of renewables.
28

Countries that can commit to no new coal (1)• These 14 non-OECD countries have coal
power generation in operation but no newplants under construction or in thedevelopment pipeline.
• They are ideally placed to confirm that they
will not pursue new coal power generationand instead develop clean alternatives. This
would put them on the start of a pathway
towards the phase out of coal power
generation.
• Morocco and Malaysia have seen new coalplants enter operation over the past decade
but no longer have further projects underdevelopment. They are well positioned to beregional leaders in prioritising renewableenergy.
• International support for clean
technology, early closure anddecommissioning, and just transition
strategies are required for these countries toconfidently commit to becoming coal-freeover the coming decades.
29

Countries that can commit to no new coal (2)•These 12 countries currently have nooperating coal power plants, but are atvarious stages of considering new coalprojects.

•

Cancelling the projects at preconstruction stages projects would take
15GW out of the global pipeline, andenable these 11 countries to leapfrog
coal completely (not including UAE).

Spotlight:
In early 2020 the 6.6GW Hamrawein plant in
Egypt has been postponed indefinitely. This
would have been the second largest coal
power station in the world but wascancelled as Egypt has already achieved its
electricity capacity targets using otherenergy sources – primarily renewables.
Such large coal plants make even less sensein context of Covid19 economic impacts.
30

Countries that can commit to no new coal (3)•This group of countries has operating
coal power plants, and a pipeline of
new projects totalling 9.2GW, but none
currently under construction.

•

This puts them in a position where they
may be able to cancel their pipeline
and instead choose topursue renewables projects.
Spotlight:
In May, Zambia announced a 600MW solar
deal with Power China - almost double its
current installed coal capacity

Spotlight:
With the cancellation of the major
Kosova E coal project following
multiple financiers pulling out,
Kosovo no longer has a coal pipeline.
31

15 non-OECD countries most exposed to coal risk
Spotlight:
These countries are most at risk of deepening their exposure
to coal, bringing enduring economic risk that will extend
beyond the Covid19 crisis. Pakistan, for example, is a key
recipient country in China's Belt & Road Initiative, and isalready facing a debt crisis as it struggles to meet payments.
Planned new plants would only exacerbate overcapacity
impacts, while new renewables are now cheapest option.

•

There are 15 countries with operating coalplants under construction; and further projects
at earlier stages of the development pipeline.

•

In 8 of these countries, coal generates over halfof the country’s electricity, with some countries(South Africa, Mongolia, Botswana) relying on
coal for over 85% of electricity.

•

Excluding China and India, these countries
account for 47% of the operating coal and 50%of the pipeline outside the OECD.

•

Since this data was released, Botswana haslicensed 825MW of new coal (June 2020)32

China: risk of a coal-fired rebound• Investment decisions for new coal plants globally fell to a 40 year low in
2019, but have rebounded in China, with multiple new projects moving
ahead - accounting for 60% of global new capacity decisions in Q1 2020.
• Recent analysis by Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on
Energy and Clean Air found that China now has 249.6GW of coal-fired
capacity under development (97.8GW under construction and 151.8GW
in planning), a 21% increase over end-2019.
• With an estimated 400GW of excess coal-fired capacity, and the fleet
running at an average 49% load factor, there is no economic case forfurther coal construction (GEM/CREA), which is limited to 1100GW underthe 13th Five Year Plan (FYP).
• During 2019, central government increased the number of provinces
able to permit new coal plants. But in June 2020 six ministries issued
guidance to caution against further coal plant construction, highlighting
tensions between national and provincial economic recovery plans, but
without firm targets or measures to limit new capacity.
• An increase to the coal capacity cap in the upcoming 14th FYP would put
the achievement of Paris Agreement climate goals at risk and undermine
China’s own economic interests. Further coal plant construction would
increase the risk of stranded assets and undermine green recovery effort.
Wind and solar are cheaper than new coal plants in many parts of China.

Coal-fired power generation capacity (GW) subject to a final investment
decision (IEA, 2020)33

About E3G
E3G is an independent climate change think tank accelerating the transition
to a climate safe world.

E3G builds cross-sectoral coalitions to achieve carefully defined outcomes,chosen for their capacity to leverage change. E3G works closely with likeminded partners in government, politics, business, civil society, science, themedia, public interest foundations and elsewhere. In 2018, for the third year
running, E3G was ranked the fifth most globally influential environmental
think tank.
More information is available at www.e3g.org

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