The Use of S Curves in Technology
Forecasting
Study of methodology to induce innovation

September 11, 2014
Nobuaki Arai （Arai &Associates）
Masahiro Kuwahara （Idea inc.）Table of Contents• Motivation• Purpose• About S Curves• Considerations from ＴＲＩＺ View
• Innovation Christensen の Innovation

Motivation• Existence of Correlation between Ｓ Curves andNumbers of Patent Applications– Not statistically well proved• Two Innovations (Clayton M. Christensen)– Sustained Innovation– Disruptive Innovation• IP Management Differ by Industries– A product with many patens in ElectricalMachinery– A product with a few patents in Medicine– 30 % by Japanese Industries in Global Applications

Purpose• To Statistically prove Existence of Correlation
between Ｓ Curves and Numbers of PatentApplications in each Industrial field• Suggest a Methodology of inducement ofDisruptive Innovation• Definition of Innovation– Change with Economical Success– Especially Means Disruptive Innovation

Ｓ Curve
ValueRetirement
Maturation

GrowthIdea

BirthTimeConsideration from TRIZ View
Is it true that existence of correlation
between Ｓ curves and numbers of patentapplications ?
Numbers Of
Patent ApplicationTimeSource：Darrell Mann,2004

Christensen’s Innovation（Clayton M. Christensen）
Innovation

Sustained
Innovation

Disruptive
Innovation

Low-end TypeNew-market Type

Disruption

Diruption

Early Study （３Ｄ TV）
3D TV S Curve with cumulative patent numbers
The dataset for this study is constructedfrom Espacenet. Espacenet contains fullcollection of published patent applications
worldwide 3D TV’is used as keyword termand patents are found for the period
between 1969 – 2011.

This study is regarding thecorrelations between
Numbers of patent applications
and S curves in overseas.
This kind of studies are foundin a few cases in Japan.
Sourse：Gizem Intepe, and Tufan Koc”The Use of S Curves in Technology Forecasting and its Application On 3D TV Technology“World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, Vol:71 2012-11-28

Introduction of one of our Studies• ３Ｄ(Three-Dimensional) Printer• Grounds for being selected– Highly trendy technology– Expectedly huge market– Innovation just started

Wikipedia log o made by 3D printerSource：http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D%E3%83%97%E3%83%AA%E3%83%B3%E3%82%BF%E3%83%BC

Innovation and Numbers of PatentsNumbers of patents

Sustained Innovation

Disruptive innovation

TimeNumbers of Laid Open3500

Find out where we are in on the S curves

3000

2500

2000
Cumulative Numbers
Numbers of Laid Open

1500

1000

500

0
1995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

Source：Japan Patent Office IPDL eddited by Arai

Consideration as viewed from TRIZ
Considerations that were seen from the pattern oftechnology system evolution• It can be assumed that when regarded as "moldingmachine" a system of this time, and have evolved aninjection molding machine (mold) → 3D printer(mold-less).

A single die. Plurality of dies.

S curve of the injection molding

3D printer.

S curve of the 3D printer???

Consideration as viewed from thecopanies with patent application• Changes in the player status and comparison of
three companies of which patent application level ofthe 3D printer and an injection molding machine.

US patent only APPConsideration as viewed from thepatent application companies• Changes in the player' status and comparison of thepatent application level of the 3D printer as well as
an injection molding machine among three companies.

US patent only APPConsideration as viewed fromthe patent application companies• Changes in the player status and comparison of
three companies patent application level of the3D printer and an injection molding machine.

• When viewed from the patent application in thismanner, from the fact that apparently, with thechange of players, the transition of the time canbe seen, to explore are insights derived from thepattern of the evolution of TRIZ and application
changes in the patent "System" is valid.

Another consideration whenviewed from TRIZ
• Use of TRIZ in the future to sprout
discovery of disruptive innovation?
• Main it is to refer to the "pattern oftechnical systems evolution" in general.
• However, as the "knowledge utilization inother fields", finding a way to implement
other measures intended function also,
more powerful when combined with thestatus of patent search?

Another consideration whenviewed from TRIZ
• For example,• If the 3D printer, that in order tocheck the germination of innovation
the next, analyzing the prior patent of
those using “effects”, feel the new
possibilities some of which tips the"molding machine for the next
generation" is not it because you canexplore?

Towards the creation of a new modeling method,
I try to examine the patent for "laser vapor volume".

Future Plans• To statistically prove that the existenceof the correlation between Technological S
Curves and Numbers of Patent Applicationin different technological fields
respectively• Consider of other technological S Curves
and Economical Environments in detail• To forecast approximate period whendisruptive innovations occur• To induce disruptive innovation