129

Aligning Low-Carbon Society Scenario with
City Development Goals in Bhopal, India
Kei GOMI1*, Aashish DESHPANDE2 and Manmohan KAPSHE3
1

Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University
Kyoto daigaku-Katsura, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8530, Japan
2
National Institute of Technical Teachers’ Training and Research (NITTTR)
Shamla Hills, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh 462002, India
3
School of Planning and Architecture, Sports Complex, Maulana Azad National Institute of Technology, (MANIT),
Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh 462051, India*e-mail: gomi.kei.5r@kyoto-u.ac.jp

Abstract
This study presents a low-carbon society (LCS) scenario in a rapidly growing city, Bhopal, India. The
city currently has problems with sprawling development and associated traffic increase as well as providing
energy to the city dwellers and businesses. The city has a unique topographic configuration in which different
parts of the city are interspaced by hills and lakes. The new developments are not particularly eco-friendly andplanned interventions are needed, if Bhopal wants to continue as a cleaner and greener city. We developed
simulations of two possible scenarios, namely “business as usual” (BAU) and “low-carbon society” (LCS) for
Bhopal in 2035, and quantified emission reduction potentials of various countermeasures using the
AIM/ExSS model. An LCS scenario in which CO2 emissions are mitigated by 41% from BAU was developed
considering these issues. The future scenario development and modeling outcome suggest that the largest
mitigation potential can be achieved through measures for energy efficiency improvement followed by fuelshift and integrated transport management. The overall vision of the LCS approach is to make Bhopal a morelivable entity to all its residents. Towards realising this vision, seven actions have been suggested that can impact the existing energy consumption pattern as well as GHG emissions in the future. These actions, though,identified separately for the ease of communication, are inseparably linked in the LCS framework and can
only work in conjunction towards achieving the vision.
Key words: city planning, climate change mitigation, low-carbon city, scenario development

1. Introduction
Today, we are faced with a series of global problems
which are harming the biosphere and human life inalarming ways that may soon become irreversible.
Particularly, emissions in cities continue to pose a significant threat to health, the environment and the qualityof life of millions of people across nations. More thanhalf of the world’s population now lives in urban areasand contributes more than 80% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Many aspects of urban change inthe last 50 years are unprecedented, including not only
the level of urbanisation and the size of the world’s urban
population but also the size and number of very large
cities. These urban changes are dramatic – there are dozens of cities whose populations have grown tenfold in 30
years. This has led to rapid growth of the so called ‘million cities’ and ‘mega cities’. Most of the world’s largest
cities are now in Asia.
Global Environmental Research
17/2013: 129-138
printed in Japan

It is projected that in 2015, worldwide, there will be
more than 300 cities with over one million inhabitants
each, and that most of these cities will be in developing
countries. Between 1980 and 2000, Lagos, Dhaka,
Tianjin, Hyderabad and Lahore, among others, joined thelist of the 30 largest cities in the world, and by 2010, theIndian city of Mumbai is projected to become the second
largest city in the world, after Tokyo (Moor & Warah2002).
Interestingly, over the years, it is environmental
problems that have been drawing more attention fromresearchers. In the recent past, due to emerging concernsof climate change, environmental issues have taken
prominence as cities are likely to face this additionalburden that is challenging their long term sustainability.
Similar to the cities in developing nations, in Indian
cities too, rapid industrialization, urbanization and development of transport networks have led to economic
development at the cost of the environment. The domes©2013 AIRIES130

K. GOMI et al.

tic sector is the largest consumer of energy in India anddiversity in consumption patterns, income levels andtechnology choices make the situation complex. Thissituation gets further compounded by the high influx of
population to urban areas, unplanned urban development
and industrial growth. The major concern today is theless than desired penetration of clean and efficient technologies in urban areas. Local urban bodies are entrustedwith the responsibility of providing services from basic
infrastructure development to waste collection and haveto assume a larger role to act as leaders in sustainable
development pathways.
Many cities in Asia are now taking actions to enhancetheir institutional and technical capabilities to design andimplement climate change mitigation and adaptation
strategies. There is a need to assess how far individual
cities can contribute to emission reductions strategies. In
this direction, this study explores and analyses the role of
rapidly urbanizing metropolitan cities in India towards
moving on low-carbon pathways. For this purpose, astudy of Bhopal City, located in central India, is being
carried out.
International discussions have lately been focused on
how the world community must reduce greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions by 60 percent by the year 2050, toprevent global average temperatures from rising above
2°C over pre-industrial levels. As each individual country will take the development path on the basis of its local
resource endowments, it becomes imperative to focus on
the possible incentives that can help developing countries
move towards a lower-carbon future. Care needs to betaken to account for the barriers that can retard the process. This translates into formulation of an integrated
approach to sustainable development and requiring realigning of development and climate priorities.
1.1 Low-carbon society : concept
The main characteristic of the LCS approach here isto encourage societies in transition to address not only theenvironmental challenges of climate change but alsosocial, economic and political challenges among others.
An LCS is a society sustainably developed or developingon the basis of close, reasonable and harmonious coordination of economic and social development, and environmental protection. In this society, environmental
protection will be given the same level of attention asother socioeconomic development issues. An LCS
framework is not merely an approach to reducing GHG
emissions but it also helps to achieve national development targets especially those related to effective sustainable development.
With rapid urbanization, in the coming years, India
faces challenges in economic development which have to
be met with the limited resources available, with minimal
externalities and large uncertainties with regard to climate change. From this perspective, the LCS approachgives alternative options for the future flow of energy
through infrastructure and other behavioral and lifestylechoices.

1.2 Objective
To analyse the possibilities of reducing GHG emissions in the future, a sustainable development futurescenario has been drawn for Bhopal that is expected totake it in the direction of a low-carbon society. For
managing energy emissions and driving the urban
eco-system towards balance, the city has to work as anorganic whole and the effects of all significant activities
must be made apparent. In this process, the citizens andpolicymakers make informed choices. The governanceand management process is taken to be rooted insustainability and makes decisions which not only address the interests of the present stakeholders but also of
future generations.
The primary objectives for a city in transition towards
LCS are outlined as –• Sustainability and low-carbon emissions in line withnational policies• Readiness for the future and resilience to change• Conservation and green orientation for quality of life
• Economic and socially competitive clean and green
industries• An efficient transport system• Community participation in city development
1.3 LCS study for Bhopal
The urban population of Bhopal has increased at an
average decadal growth rate of over 70% in the last four
decades. Bhopal, being a growing urban center in India,
is a prototype city and has therefore been selected as asuitable case study for implementation of the LCS
framework. The study area has been delineated to include
the entire district of Bhopal, which encompasses considerable area in the rural-urban fringe. The planning area ofthe city of Bhopal constitutes a large part of the district.
The development of the district thus holds great opportunities at this juncture, standing at the crossroads of arural-urban interface, which if explored in the right perspective, could lead to a more sustainable vision.
1.4 About Bhopal
Bhopal, the capital city of the state of Madhya
Pradesh, is one of the many cities in India growing at avery fast pace. Historically, the identity of the city of
Bhopal has been linked with the feudal State of Bhopal as
its capital and its large man-made lakes.
After the reorganization of states in 1956, Bhopal was
declared to be the capital of Madhya Pradesh. By then, it
had already acquired a complex urban structure. However, it was only after 1956 that the spectacular growth of
Bhopal started and it began to sprawl across the adjoining
areas. Low-density development in the past has helped it
to continue with green cover. The afforested hills havealso helped keep the city water bodies clean. This naturalbalance is now being disturbed due to faster and somewhat thoughtless development. The new developments
are not particularly eco-friendly and planned interventions are needed if Bhopal wants to continue as a cleaner
and greener city. Table 1 provides basic information on

Low-Carbon Society Scenario in Bhopal, India
Table 1 Profile of the Bhopal district.
Demography Population (2005)
Population growth rate
(1991-2005)
Urbanization rate
Geography Location

Economy2.1 million
3.2%/year

80.5%
Latitude: 77.35N
Longitude: 23.25E
Altitude: 550-660 MSL
Temperature
Maximum: 45 degrees Celsius
Minimum: 6 degrees Celsius
Average rainfall
900-1220 mm per yearArea2772.4 km2
Urban plan area: 601 km2
DGDP (2005)
70 billion INR
Per capita DGDP (2005) 33 thousand INR
DGDP growth rate
2.6%/year(2001-2005)

the district.
1.4.1 Geography
Bhopal is situated on the Malwa Plateau, spreading
across the central part of India. It lies in hilly terrain,sloping towards the north and south east. It has anaverage elevation of 576 meters above mean sea level(MSL), which is higher than the North Indian plains,
where the land rises towards the Vindhya Range to thesouth. Bhopal has an uneven elevation and a number ofsmall hillocks within its boundaries, and it also includes
large water bodies and forested areas in close proximity
to the urban area. Bhopal City also has a unique topographic configuration in which the different parts of thecity are interspaced by hills and lakes providing large
open spaces within the city.
1.4.2 Demography
Bhopal had a population of 85,000 in 1956 at the time
it was declared the state capital. The city became ametropolis with a population of 1.063 million in 1991.
The population of Bhopal City has increased at an
average decadal growth rate of over 70% during the last
four decades. As per the Census 2011 provisional
estimates, the population of Bhopal District in 2011 was
2.36 million. Estimates indicate that the population of
Bhopal District will grow to around 4.5 million by 2035.
1.4.3 Land use
The land use in Bhopal is represented in seven broad
categories of residential, commercial, industrial, public
and semi-public, public utility, recreational and transportation. The maximum share of land allocations in the
Bhopal Development Plan – 1991, was under the residential category, having 45%, followed by recreational(15%) and transportation (13%) (GoMP, 1974). The plan
area has increased considerably; however, the land-use
distribution has remained more or less the same in the
Bhopal Development Plan – 2005 (GoMP, 1995).

131

1.4.4 Economy
On the economic front the city is growing as a multifunctional capital city. In recent years, Bhopal has seen adecline in traditional industries, especially the engineering support and component manufacture that originallygrew up around Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited(BHEL). The service sector is becoming dominant andprovides the majority of employment in Bhopal. The
District Gross Domestic Product (DGDP) has grownfrom 45 billion INR in 2001-2002 to 70 billion INR in
2005-2006 at an annualized short-term growth rate of
2.59% (Indicus Analytics, 2009).
For the year 2005-06, the tertiary sector contribution
to the DGDP was more than 75% of the economy.
Occupations in the tertiary sector have been continuously
increasing over last four decades and the percentage ofworkers in the secondary sector has declined substantially, whereas that in the primary sector share has declined marginally.
1.4.5 Transport
Like all major cities in India, Bhopal has also witnessed very high vehicular growth. In the last two
decades, total motor vehicles have grown by more than
three times, and this growth is driven by two wheelers,
which have grown by more than three times during thisperiod. However, since 2003-2004, with rising income
and prosperity, the share of four wheelers plying theroads has been growing rapidly.
The transport infrastructure in Bhopal is being transformed with widening of roads, overpass bridges at railway crossings, flyovers for fast transit, multistory parking at various locations, and pedestrian subways at majortraffic points. Bhopal Municipal Corporation (BMC)
under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal
Mission (JNNURM) scheme has initiated the Bus Rapid
Transport System (BRTS) plan for Bhopal in a phasedmanner (Bhopal Municpal Corporation, 2005; Bhopal
Municipal Corporation, 2006).
1.4.6 Energy and CO2 emissions
Energy consumption in Bhopal is growing rapidly.
The electricity consumption for the year 2007-2008 in
Bhopal was about 940.83 million kWh (Divisional Planning and Statistics Office, 2008) of which Bhopal urban
was consuming more than 580 million kWh. As per the
Census 2001, 97% of the households in Bhopal District
have access to electricity as a source of lighting. The
share of the residential sector has been highest, with 58%
of the total electricity consumption, followed by commercial, with 19%, and others, with 18%. The industrial
sector accounts for 5%. In the total final energy consumption, fuel wood, LPG and kerosene constitutealmost 70%, and the balance is distributed amongst coal,petroleum, electricity, etc. The sector-wise energy consumption distribution in 2005 is shown in Fig. 1, with theresults of future projections. Since the largest energy
consumer is the residential sector, for emissions reduction, the primarily residential sector needs to be targeted.

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Fig. 1 Final energy demand by sector (a) and by fuel (b) and primary energy demand (c).

2. Methodology : BackcastingThis study applies a problem formulation methodology commonly used in LCS studies, where the socioeconomic assumptions of the target year, environmentalload emissions, and measures for reduction are collectively called the ‘future society image.’ Suitable actions
for the study area are then identified that are needed totransform the present condition into the identified ‘futuresociety image’ (Becker et al., 1982). To create a local
low-carbon society scenario, the concept of ‘back casting’ (Robinson, 1982) is used, which first sets a desirable
goal, and then seeks the ways to achieve it. In this process,to formulate the framework of an LCS scenario for aregion, a problem outline is drawn that establishes thecoverage areas, base and target year, targeted activities,
environmental targets and number of scenarios. This isfollowed by description of socioeconomic assumptions
for developing a qualitative future image and quantification of the parameters. The parameters of socioeconomic assumptions, the economic growth rate of theregion, export value by industry and population characteristics, considered to have large influences on GHG
emissions, are then used as exogenous variables for the
AIM/ExSS model. The AIM/ExSS model (Gomi et al.
2010) can capture the emission reductions of eachcountermeasure, thereby showing the reduction potentialof specific policy prescriptions and identifying potential
high emission reduction countermeasures.
As a first step, in order to capture the current status of
Bhopal and to calibrate the AIM/ExSS, socioeconomicand energy data of the base year (2005) were collected(Table 2).
In the next step, for the present research, the study
area as stated above was the Bhopal District with anurban-rural mix. Different areas of Bhopal District having different growth rates, diverse levels of infrastructure

facilities, different energy consumption levels, fastchanging economic activities, occupational patterns andland use were reflected in the socioeconomic assumptions.
Finally, interventions considered feasible to be introduced in each target year were collected. These included,
but were not limited to, energy-saving technology,changes in traffic structure, increasing use of renewableenergy, energy-saving actions, sources of absorption, etc.
Standards, expense minimization, stakeholders’ receptiveness and technical feasibility were considered inorder to ascertain suitable combinations of interventions
and measures. With possible values of technical parameters applied (energy efficiency, technology shares, etc.),
CO2 emissions were projected in a reiterative processuntil the target was met. Based on these conforming
measures, actions and policy recommendations were
formulated and suggested.

3. Scenarios
3.1 Framework of the scenarios
The time horizon for achieving LCS targets was set
for the year 2035. The objective was to align city development plans and policies with national and global targets. The target was for the LCS to achieve a reduction of
40% in 2035 from BAU emissions. The BAU scenario of2035 was computed envisaging the continuation ofpresent government policies, existing technologies, lifestyles and energy consumption patterns. Using historic
trends, in the transport and residential sector, the energy
and emission scenario was drawn for three decades,
assuming that all the past growth rates would continue inthe future. In this scenario no specific interventions weretaken. The BAU scenario shows us a projected picture
bringing out the extent of problems in the future. For
analyzing the possibilities of reducing the GHG emis-Low-Carbon Society Scenario in Bhopal, India

sions in the future, a sustainable development futurescenario was drawn for Bhopal that was expected to takeit towards a low-carbon society. In this process thecitizens and policymakers would make informed choices.
The governance and management process was taken to
be rooted in sustainability in which decisions were madewhich not only addressed the interests of the present
stakeholders but also of future generations.
Table 3 shows the list of assumptions used in both of
the scenarios and Table 4 shows parameters and data
sources for the assumptions in the scenarios.

3.2 Socioeconomic scenarios
3.2.1 Demography
The energy consumption and emissions of a city are
dependent on the demographic characteristics and economic development of the region. With its rapid population increase, Bhopal has grown from a small town to a
hub of many economic activities. Development has
touched every aspect of life in the city, from potablewater and sewage systems to roads and the vehicles thatply them. Using the growth rates from the United Nations(UN) medium term population projections for India, UN
World Urbanization Prospects 2009, Census of India, andTable 2 Information sources for the base year (2005).
Populationx

Input-output table xxxx
Transport volume x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
Land use and floor x
areax
Energy balance
x
table
x
x
x
x
x

Sources
Divisional Planning and Statistics Office, Bhopal Division Publication, (2008)
Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (2005)
Central Statistical Organisation (2009)
GoMP (2009)
Indicus Analytics (2009)
Divisional Planning and Statistics Office (2008)
Bhopal Municipal Corporation (2006)
Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India (2005)
Road Transport Office Bhopal, Ministry of Road Transport, Government of Madhya Pradesh (2008)
Wilbur Smith Associates South Asia Pvt. Ltd. & Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India (2008)
Barter et al. (2003)
EMBARQ Network & Center for Sustainable Transport (CST) Asia (2009)
Bhopal Municipal Corporation (2005)
Ministry of Road Transport & Highways, Government of India (2008)
GoMP (1974)
GoMP (1995)
Department of Food & Civil Supplies, Government of Madhya Pradesh (2008)
OECD (2007)ICLEI South Asia (2008)
Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India (2005)
Divisional Planning and Statistics Office Bhopal Division Publication (2008)
National Sample Survey Organisation, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government ofIndia (2006)

Table 3 Assumptions of the scenarios.
2035BAU

Demography
EconomyPassenger transport

Population
Household size
DGDP growth rate
Industrial structure
Modal share

Trip distance
Final energy demand Cooking fuels ofresidential andcommercial sectors
Energy efficiency ofdevices
Power supply
Efficiency of conversion
Transmission anddistribution losses
Shares of fuels

133

2035LCS
4.5 million
4 persons per household
5.8%/year
Tertiary industry grows faster than other industries.
Growth of primary industry is slower than others.
Passenger cars 24%, motorbikes 40%,
Passenger cars 13%, motorbikes 21%,
trains 0%, buses 6%, walking 26%,
trains 3%, buses 29%, walking 29%,
bicycles 2%
bicycles 2%
Same as 2005
20% reduction from BAU for passenger
cars and motorbike
Less share of biomass for cooking and water heating fuel than 2005
More use of air-conditioning (cooling) in households
0% to 91% improvement in energy
efficiency of the devices
10% improvement from 2005
10% reduction from 2005

90% to 340% improvement in energy
efficiency of the devices
20% improvement from 2005
20% reduction from 2005

Increase in hydro (5%) and solar (0.6%),
decrease in coal (83%)

Increase in hydro (24%) and solar(1.0%), decrease in coal (60%)

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K. GOMI et al.

future estimates for Madhya Pradesh, we assumed thatthe population of Bhopal District would grow from
1.8 million to 4.5 million by 2035. With the changing
lifestyles and increasing prevalence of the nuclear familysystem the household size was assumed to decrease to 4
from 5.1 (Census, 2001).

3.2.3 Commercial buildings
With large-scale investments in the real estate, especially in the commercial sector, the building sector
needed special consideration in the case of Bhopal. The
total floor space for commercial activities was projected
to grow from 61 km2 in 2005 to 344 km2 in 2035 as per
the rise in the tertiary sector’s contribution to the district
economy.

3.2.2 Economy
Table 5 summarizes the variables projected by the
AIM/ExSS in each of the scenarios. Based on economic
growth assumptions, the AIM/ExSS model projected thatthe Bhopal economy would grow rapidly with the district
GDP rising from INR 70 billion in 2005 to 400 billion in
2035. Using an input-output framework, the model
estimated changes in the structure of the economy with ashift towards the service sector from 60% in 2005 to
60.8% in 2035. The secondary sector (mining, manufacturing and construction) share increased slightly from
36% in 2005 to 36.9% in 2035. This shift is attributed tothe decline in the primary sector share from 4.0% to 2.3%
in the same period.

3.2.4 Transport
The motor vehicle density was expected to rise withincreases in motor vehicle fleets and population growth.
The passenger transport demand would grow from 5 billion passenger-km in 2005 to 25 billion passenger-km
level in 2035 (Fig. 2) and the freight transport demand
would grow to 3.5 billion ton-km in 2035 from 0.6 billion
ton-km in 2005.

Table 4 Parameters and data sources for scenario assumptions.
 Economic Parameters
SAM Estimation• EconomyWatch (2010) India Economic Indicators for Years 2011- 2015 (Forecast) (2010)
Projections for• Expert opinion is used to validate the GDP growth rates in future periods.
changes in economic • The sectoral shares in DGDP of used sectors are determined using past series CAGR and projections for India
structurein those sectors.
• Expert opinion is used to validate the DGDP growth rates and sectoral share projections in 2035.
• From the future share projection, the absolute values for DGVA by the different sectors are estimated.
 Demographic Parameters
Population• National Commission on Population (2006)• United Nations Population Fund (2009)• Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations (2009) Transport Parameters
Transport sector• Bhopal Municipal Corporation (2006)
composition• Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India (2005)(Passenger and• Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India and Wilbur Smith Associates South Asia Pvt.
Freight)Ltd.(2008)

Table 5 Main variables projected by the AIM/ ExSS.
Variable
Number of households
DGDP
Per capita DGDP
Industrial output
Agriculture
Forestry
Fisheries
MiningManufacturing
Construction
Electricity, gas and water supply
Banking & Insurance
Other services
Total
Commercial floor area
Passenger transport demandFreight transport demand
Final energy demand
CO2 emissions
Per capita CO2 emissions

386
70
181

2035
BaU
1,136
383
337

2035
LCS
1,136
383
337

2035BaU
/2005
2.94
5.47
1.86

2035LCS
/2005
2.94
5.47
1.86

2035LCS/2035BaU
1.00
1.00
1.00

5
0
0
2
26
17
4
2
69
125
61
5,204
617
815
2,504
1.2

16
0
0
9
144
97
28
12
384
689
344
24,742
3,591
3,044
11,797
2.6

16
0
0
9
144
97
28
12
384
689
344
20,496
3,532
2,299
6,916
1.5

3.30
1.09
0.71
4.60
5.58
5.61
6.33
5.57
6.18
5.57
5.63
4.75
5.82
3.73
4.71
2.20

3.30
1.09
0.71
4.60
5.58
5.61
6.33
6.18
5.57
5.51
5.63
3.94
5.73
2.82
2.76
1.29

1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.83
0.98
0.76
0.59
0.59

Unit

2005

thousandbillion INR
thousand INRbillion INR

km2
million passenger-km
million ton-km
ktoe
ktCO2
tCO2

Low-Carbon Society Scenario in Bhopal, India

3.3 Energy consumption and CO2 emissions
3.3.1 BAU scenario
Based on scenario quantification using macroeconomic data, future energy demand and corresponding
GHG emissions in 2035 were estimated. The final energy
demand in Bhopal was projected to rise more than threetimes to 3 million toe in 2035 where the share of theresidential sector would be 43% followed by industry
with 28% and the transport sector with 21% (Fig. 1(a)).
About 81% of the primary energy would be met by coaland oil resources in the year 2035. Gas followed with 7%,
more than half of which would be consumed in the industry sector. CO2 emissions in this scenario would be
11.8 MtCO2, an increase of 4.7 times from 2005. A
sectoral analysis of GHG emissions showed that thecontributions from the building sector (residential andcommercial) for Bhopal would rise by more than 5 times
compared to the year 2005 in the BAU scenario (Fig. 3).
Per capita CO2 emissions increased to 10.4 tCO2 from
6.5 tCO2 in 2005.
3.3.2 LCS scenario
In the year 2035, for the low-carbon society scenario,
total final energy demand declined by 34% from BAU asa result of energy efficiency improvement in the energy
demand sectors (Fig. 1(a)). The primary energy mix
would shift towards cleaner fuel with the share of renewables (solar, biomass and hydro) more than doublingfrom 4% in BAU to 14% (Fig. 1 (c)). In this scenario,
coal and oil would decline by half in quantity whereas
natural gas would grow together with renewable energy
sources. The share of nuclear and hydro was assumed tofollow the national averages in the respective scenarios.
With this energy demand mix, the GHG emissions would
decline to 6.9 MtCO2 (Fig. 3). The corresponding residential sector emissions would decline from 5.6 to
2.6 MtCO2 commercial sector emissions, from 1.4 to
0.76 MtCO2; transport sector emissions, from 1.83 to 1.2;
and industrial sector emissions, from 2.98 to 2.3 MtCO2.
In the residential and commercial sectors, this reduction
was due to improved energy efficiency in end-use
devices and a shift towards cleaner fuel. In the case of thetransport sector, the reduction came from travel demand
management, enhanced vehicle efficiency, modal shift,increased use of public transport and improved transportsystems. The industrial sector emissions reduction wasachieved by improvements in end-use devices both inelectrical and non-electrical equipment, boilers and furnaces, fuel switch from coal and oil to gas and clean
electricity. The per capita GHG emissions contribution
would be more than two times from 1.2 tCO2 in base year
2005 to 2.6 tCO2 in the 2035 BAU scenario and would
decline to 1.5 tCO2 in 2035 LCS scenario.
3.4 Mitigation potential
In the 2035 LCS scenario, the model projected thatthe total GHG emissions in Bhopal would be reduced to
6.9 MtCO2 from 11.8 MtCO2 in the BAU scenario. This
would account for more than 40% GHG emissions re-135

ductions. Figure 4 shows contributions to emission reduction by mitigation options.
The largest reduction, of 1.9 MtCO2, would comefrom energy efficiency improvements followed by
1.6 MtCO2 from improvements in the power supply.
Energy efficiency improvements would include applications of energy-efficient technologies in buildings, passive and active methods of reducing energy consumption,
the use of energy-efficient appliances and vehicle efficiency improvements. Improvements in the power
supply would include conversion efficiency improvement, reduction of transmission and distribution losses
and a fuel shift to renewable energy. On the energy
demand side, energy efficiency improvements in buildings from residential and commercial sectors would
provide 33% of the total emissions reduction potential
with 1.6 million tCO2 in the LCS scenario, followed by
reduction in energy service demand (5%), a modal shift
in transport (5%) and energy efficiency improvement in
the transport sector (5%).
Bhopal is an administrative capital with rising population and a higher tertiary sector share in its occupational
pattern, so in pursuit of low-carbon society development,
it would require an aggressive portfolio of policy
measures.
Key policy measures would be needed for improving
energy intensity (attainable by reducing energy service
demand and making lifestyle changes) along with accessFig. 2 Passenger transport demand.

Fig. 3 Projected CO2 emissions.

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Fig. 4 Contribution of mitigation options.

to low-carbon power (hydro, nuclear), fuel switches in
the industrial and transport sectors, providing convenientpublic transport and measures promoting end-use device
efficiency, specifically in the transport, industrial andresidential sectors.

4. Seven Actions towards an LCS
In pursuit of developing a low-carbon society by 2035
in Bhopal, the menu of policies and measures fosters
numerous objectives, and these policy priorities change
and evolve constantly with the challenges of the day. The
overall vision of the LCS approach is to make Bhopal a
more livable entity to all its residents.
The LCS approach demands greater efficiency ofenergy consumption as well as reduction in GHG emissions. Pursuit of these goals presents wide-ranging issues
in the urban transportation, industrial, residential andcommercial sectors. Many of the measures in these areas
overlap each other.
There are seven actions that could be taken which
would be the key steps that could influence the existingenergy consumption pattern and GHG emissions in the
future. These actions have been defined with an understanding of the inherent strengths and potential of the
Bhopal District which can be explored at this time of
rapid development. A sustainable path taken now could
guide tomorrow’s growth in a more holistic and inclusive
manner with little need for post-action course correction.
These actions, though, identified separately for theease of communication, are inseparably linked within the
LCS framework and can only work in conjunction witheach other towards achieving the vision. Further, theseactions are conceptual in nature, derived from themodeling outputs in an integrated manner, and do not
attempt to provide quantification of the LCS vision.

4.1 Action 1: Green Governance: Government
Initiatives towards an LCS
The success of the LCS vision lies first and foremostin the government’s will to embrace sustainability as an
intrinsic focus in all its future plans and policies. This
would mean incorporation of various measures at thepolicy level and in the implementation mechanisms.
4.2 Action 2: Holistic Habitat: Energy Efficiency in
Buildings
Holistic Habitat would encompass all measures affecting the building and construction industry.
4.3 Action 3: Sustainable Style: Low-Carbon
Lifestyle
Adopting sustainability as a way of life and not analternative path is imperative for the success of the LCS
vision.
4.4 Action 4: Cellular City: Multi-Nuclei Land Use
Planning
The city of Bhopal, by virtue of its topography
multiple nuclei and natural settings has historicallydeveloped as a city with multiple nuclei with naturalbarriers separating various zones. This natural formation
can be used to the best advantage to develop a cellularcity form and structure. This would imply developing
compact multi-functional districts or townships (depending on the scale of the settlement) within an overall
cohesive framework.
4.5 Action 5: Form and Flow: Integrating Transportwith City Structure
In keeping with the multi-nuclei land use planning,
the integration of transport systems connecting the cells
as well as intra-cell transport is critical for reduction ofemissions in the LCS scenario.

Low-Carbon Society Scenario in Bhopal, India

4.6 Action 6: Nurturing Nature: Leveraging the
Natural and Historic Assets
Bhopal is fortunate to be endowed with large natural
resources in the form of its many lakes and wooded hills,
which give it a unique identity and define its many zones
as well. It also has an old fortified city area as a historic
resource. Protecting and leveraging this natural advantage is the next important step.
4.7 Action 7: Rural Riches: Promoting a Better Lifein Rural Areas
A considerable part of the Bhopal District is still ruralin nature and would be transformed to urban areas in thenear future. At this juncture, it is important to carry forward the good practices of rural living even in thetransition to urbanization.

5. Discussion and Concluding Remarks
Solutions to environmental problems require manychanges in current practices, and technological, institutional and human factors are often resistant to change.
The environmental policies involve multiple stakeholders with multiple, conflicting interests and concerns thathave a range of implications for present and future
generations. The concerns about the environmental costsof economic development are now both widespread andintense.
To attain the status of low-carbon city, Bhopal will
have to make efforts to reduce its emissions in the future.
Measures will be needed in every walk of life forharnessing renewable materials and energy sources andalso to reduce the use of natural resources by using themmore efficiently and productively, cutting or eliminating
pollution and toxic wastes and delivering equal or superior performance compared with conventional offerings.
Bhopal has grown from a small town to a hub of many
economic activities. It is a synthesis of the old and the
new with bustling bazaars in the old city area and modern
industrial centers. At present, land use planning, patternsof development and appropriate infrastructure provision
have not kept pace with the economic growth of the city.
Due to its rapid rate of urbanization, the city fabric isbeing stressed with growing transport concentration andrising energy consumption.
Bhopal with its development planning proposals andefforts of its civic society along with a host of government and non-government agencies is well poised to
become a role model for central India, with its clean andgreen surroundings, tourist-friendly transport system,
green pathways, energy-efficient and environmentfriendly industry and good governance.
Based on the results of the present study, it can beenvisaged that a city like Bhopal can move onto the pathof becoming a low-carbon society city, able to address
the issues of increasing energy consumption and emissions. This will be possible only if needed steps andplanning measures are taken in coming years to address
the infrastructure bottlenecks and by adoption of cleaner

137

technologies. It is expected that the policymakers will beable to accommodate these requirements, addressing theenvironmental concerns, and Bhopal will emerge as thefirst low-carbon society state capital in India.
This study is of especial significance because thepathways to achieve a low-carbon society are open fordeveloping countries, and a framework for a low-carbon
society from the perspective of developing countries is
evolving. It could be said that fast-growing Indian cities
will have an opportunity to contribute to climate change
mitigation by developing on a low-carbon pathway.

Acknowledgements
This research was supported by “The Environment
Research and Technology Development Fund by
Ministory of the Environment, Japan” S-6-1. A part ofthis work was carried out under the Eco Frontier
Fellowship, Global Environment Fund, Ministry of theEnvironment, Japan, and the SATREPS project of
JICA-JST. We are thankful to the Ministry of the Environment, Japan; National Institute for Environmental
Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Mizuho Information and Research Institute (MHIR), Tokyo, Japan; and Maulana
Azad National Institute of Technology (MANIT), Bhopal,
India; for institutional arrangements and facilitating thisresearch. We would like to acknowledge policymakers,city planners and government officials from Bhopal,
India, who have contributed with useful insights andinformation during the various studies and data collection
for this paper.
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Kei GOMIKei GOMI’s profession is integrated modeling andscenario development for analyzing national andregional GHG emissions and mitigation scenarios.
Since 2005, he has been involved in modeling fordevelopment of low-carbon society scenarios for
Shiga Prefecture and the Kyoto City government
and in joint research and training with researchersin Malaysia, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, China, South Korea, Thailand,
Bangladesh and Cambodia on national and local mitigation scenarios. He
received his PhD in Global Environmental Studies from Kyoto University.
He had been a Research Fellow of the Japan Society for the Promotion of
Science since 2008 and he has been working in his current position sinceApril, 2010.

Aashish DESHPANDE
Aashish DESHPANDE is a Professor in the
Department of Management at the National Institute of Technical Teacher’s Training & Research(NITTTR), Government of India, Bhopal. He holds
an MBA and a PhD degree from the Faculty ofManagement Studies, Barkatullah University,
Bhopal. He is a recipient of an Eco-Frontier Fellowship (Ministry of the Environment, Japan) at the National Institute forEnvironmental Studies (NIES), Japan. He has served as Head of the
Department of Management Studies at the Maulana Azad National Instituteof Technology, Bhopal. He has contributed to India's National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and has more than 15 research contributions and publications
to his credit. His teaching and research interests include international
finance, climate change scenario and policy analysis, energy - economy environment models, and low-carbon society scenario development atregional and local level. Professor Deshpande has executed or contributed
to a number of externally funded projects and national and international
collaborative research projects. He has been associated with various
national and international development agencies.

Manmohan KAPSHE
Manmohan KAPSHE is an architect and urban
planner. He is a Fellow of the Indian Institute ofManagement, Ahmedabad, India. He has morethan twenty years of teaching experience inArchitecture, Planning, Energy and Management
courses at various levels in different institutes.
He is presently working as a Professor in the
Department of Planning at the School of Planning and Architecture (SPA),
Bhopal, India. Prof. Kapshe was a Lead Author for the ‘Working Group-II
contributions to the fourth assessment report,’ contributing author to the‘2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories,’ and expert
reviewer for the ‘Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage’of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Prof. Kapshe
has carried out research and consultancy assignments with many national
and international agencies. His current research interests include regionaland sectoral analysis of emissions, spatial analysis using GIS, andanalysing the effects of climate change on human settlements andinfrastructure. He has authored a book, contributed chapters to various
books and published a number of papers in national and international
journals.

(Received 24 July 2012, Accepted 12 December 2012)