Discussion Papers In Economics
And Business
Ageographical and statistical analysis of “Karyu-byo”,
Japan’s venereal disease (VD):the effect of the morbidity
on indexes of infertility and fertility
in modern Japan: the case of Gunma prefecture, 1910s-20s
Kenichi Tomobe

Discussion Paper 20-22

February 2021

Graduate School of Economics
Osaka University, Toyonaka, Osaka 560-0043, JAPANA geographical and statistical analysis of “Karyu-byo”, Japan’s venereal disease (VD):
the effect of the morbidity on indexes of infertility and fertility
in modern Japan: the case of Gunma prefecture, 1910s-20s*
Ken’ichi Tomobe#
February 2021
Abstract
This paper analyzes the VD effect on fertility based on the village and town data in Gunma prefecturefrom 1910s to 1920s investigated by the bureau of public health and hygiene in the Ministry of Home
Affairs (MHA). Gunma prefecture was the pioneer where the Japan’s licensed prostitute system wasearliest abolished in 1893. Beside it, however, the private prostitute system called “Kashi-zashiki”
prevailed into the whole area of Gunma prefecture by the Taisho period, ca.1910s. The prostitutesystem in the modern Japan encountered the socioeconomic change derived from both urbanizationand factory industrialization, which was stimulated by the state policy and the problem of population
increase happened in the north-eastern Japan since the late 19th century.
Keywords: Sexually Transmitted Disease; Syphilis; Infertility; Stillbirth; Miscarriage; Fertility
JEL classification: I15, N35, N55, N95, R12* This is a revised paper presented for the Osaka University Seminar of Economic andBusiness History, 15th July, 2005, the Graduate School of Economics, Osaka
University, Japan. I would like to give many thanks to Dr. Chun-Lin Kuo contributed muchto making maps using the GIS.
# Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, 2-1 Naka, Kunitachi-city, Tokyo, 186-8601
Japan.
E-mail address: kenichi.tomobe@r.hit-u.ac.jp

NOTE: Please not for citation or quotation without the permission from the author

Introduction
During the recent decade, many social historians of medicine and gender have been fruitfully arguingin the global perspective the relationship between the treatment of venereal disease (VD) and the social
perception of the patients especially since late nineteenth century 1 . Usually, many of them were
censured for women’s engaging in the unwelcome occupation such as prostitution and men’s immoral
sexual behavior with prostitutes2. Until now, the historical issue has been making sense both in thehistorian’s world and the ordinary people’s life as long as not only the traditional VD such as syphilis
but the HIV is spreading to people widely and rapidly especially in the developing world.
Beside the historical and contemporary concern, there remains the important issue in the historicaldemography researchers have to resolve or explain. Recently, E. A. Wrigley, one of the worldly famous
pioneers in the historical demography, gave us the important chance to think about why the marital
fertility of early modern England and Wales had been kept moderate compared with other European
countries3. On the basis of robust statistics of micro-demography by the family reconstitution, he
explained the rise of marital fertility started from the middle nineteenth century in England and Walesby the decline of infertility, especially stillbirth which was partly but strongly got rid of by the rise ofstandard of living4. Although he hardly clarified the mechanism itself of making the fertility level
moderate, his suggestion shed lights on the missing link between demography and physiology, which
is becoming barely complicated at last.
The situation of Japan’s historical demography looks like somewhat different. Originally, as you know,
the data derived from Tokugawa Japan’s ‘parish register’, Shumon-Aratame-Cho, is very delicate forthe micro-analysis of fertility because most of infant death were missed there. Beside the deficiency,
the interest of historians and demographers in Japan, so far, has been hardly directed to theinterdisciplinary research area such as the collaboration of demography and epidemiology, physiology
and medicine. Due to the few micro-analysis on Tokugawa ‘estimated’ fertility, the level of ‘estimated’marital fertility was rather moderate, which ranged from 2.44 to 7.33 in TMFR, compared with that of
the contemporary England and Wales5. In the Tokugawa period, the eastern Japan had rather lower
For the case of the perception to the VD patients among urban poor in London, seeSiena [2004].
2 The Social History of Medicine organized the conference concerned to the topics. See,
Davidson and Hall[2001], De Vries[2001], and Aisenberg[2001].
3 Wrigley[2004] gave us many analytical issues remained in the field of British
historical demography. Especially, Wrigley[2004/1998] pinpointed the issue of infertility
in England and Wales.
4 Wrigley, ibid.
5 See Tomobe[2001].
1

1

TMFR mainly due to the parity-specific fertility control while the rest of Japan had the similar shapeof age-specific natural fertility schedule even with moderate level of TMFR6. It is the very question
demographers/historians have to reply why the level of fertility was so moderate even in the area where
the parity specific control had little been done. Demographers and historians have to inquiry not only
the proximate determinants but the physiology of fertility based on the epidemiological statistics. As
MAP1 shows, among many diseases suppressed fertility in Japan, “Karyu-byo”, the Japanese name of
VD such as syphilis, gonorrhea and chancroid, was the most influential before the establishment of
the prevention act for VD in 19277.
Most recently, Kenichi Tomobe described the detail story of the spread of syphilis and the relationshipbetween the arsenic compound and the disease happened around the end of Edo-period in the Osakaarea8. It is famous an arsphenamine, named Salvarsan developed by Dr. Sahachiro Hata and Dr. Paul
Ehrlich, had partially effect on the treatment of the disease until the appearance of penicillin foundedout by Dr. Alexander Fleming, 1928. Before the year, in Japan at least since the 18 th century aroundKyoto and Osaka medical doctors frequently utilized something arsenic at the case of syphilis
treatment. Surprisingly, ordinary syphilis patients of the Edo period had been familiar with using
something arsenic as a medicine against the disease.
[MAP 1]
Based on the aggregate data of physical examination for conscription in Gunma prefecture, especiallythe morbidity of VD at aged 20 during the Taisho period, this paper, first, investigates statistically the
relationship between the morbidity of VD at aged 20 of male populations and some indices of fertility,
infertility such as stillbirth, and infant mortality. The knowledge of the relationship certainly muchcontributes to the promotion of the physiological and epidemiological research on fertility andinfertility both in the early modern and modern Japan. Second, through using the tools of historical
GIS, this paper shows the diffusion mechanism of VD during the Taisho period in Gunma prefecture.
Especially, it sheds lights on the interrelationship between the institutional change of Japan’s
traditional prostitute system, the socioeconomic transition such as urbanization and factoryindustrialization, and the militarization.

1. Data and Sources

See Tomobe[forthcoming].
For example, Yamamoto[1983].
8 See Tomobe[2017].
6
7

2

It is well known among Japanese people VD such as syphilis, gonorrhea, and chancroid were
distributed all over the country through the Japan’s licensed prostitution from the Meiji period to the
WWII9. The same situation can be extended to the Tokugawa period10. As we imagine that Tokugawa
peasant men went to the area of licensed/private prostitute in the city and back to village with VD,
probably many peasant women also infected with them. The infected pregnant women frequently led
to stillbirth and spontaneous abortion. This resulted in the lower fertility of infected couples, andhigher infant mortality. This paper analyzes the mechanism of VD effect on fertility based on thevillage and town data in Gunma prefecture around 1910s to 1920s investigated by the bureau of publichealth and hygiene in the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA).
Gunma prefecture was the pioneer where the Japan’s licensed prostitute system was earliest abolishedin 1893. Beside it, however, the private prostitute system called “Kashi-zashiki” prevailed into thewhole area of Gunma prefecture by the Taisho period, ca.1910s. The prostitute system in the modern
Japan encountered the socioeconomic change derived from both urbanization and factoryindustrialization, which was stimulated by the state policy and the problem of population increase
happened since the late 19th century. The Gunma prefecture already abolished the licensed prostitute
had to react by herself to such a big transformation without the strong assistance from the Japan’snational government. As a result, no matter whether public prostitute or private prostitute(Kashizashiki and Ryoriten), the VD in Gunma prefecture was diffused more widely and frequently atleast during the Taisho period.
Within the overcrowded army camps, both the VD and the Sexually Transmitted Disease (STD) are
the most dangerous chronicle disease once someone transmits them. In Japan’s military history, thephysical examination of conscription was compulsorily enforced to the entire applicants at aged 20
since the amendment of the conscription act in 1889. At the same time, the medical check of VD was
also introduced there. Basically, applicants at the draft age had to be checked at the local conscription
office where they were legally domiciled. But when they stayed outside, they could do just the physicalcheck there. So, it is reasonable that most of applicants at the conscription examination werepermanent resident around the local conscription office. The department of public health and hygieneat the MHA directed local officers to edit the local VD statistics at aged 20 investigated at theconscription exam and to report the current condition of local VD. Among them the village/town level
documents edited by Otsukuma Takagi, an engineering officer of the MHA were the most valuable.
Except the case of Gunma, there remained three prefectures (Saga, Kagoshima, and Tokushima)
statistical researches on VD and trachoma, but which were based on not village/town but county (gun)
9
10

ibid.
See Kariya[1993].
3

level data at best.
The demographic data since the early Meiji period had also some difficulties as well as the Tokugawa
era. As well known, the deficiency of infertility data such as stillbirth and infant death was evident
until the enforcement of burial and graveyard act in 188411. After the year, the number of missing
babies and fetal death had been smoothly diminishing. As for the period this paper researches, thereliability of stillbirth, infant mortality, moreover fertility was almost guaranteed.

But what thebiggest issue for the effect of VD on demographic indices during the Taisho period is Japan was justbefore the demographic transition especially concerning the infant mortality. This paper utilizes infantmortality rates based on village/town data in 1933, but regrettably the year was in the middle of thedrastically declining process of infant mortality in Japan. Concerning stillbirth or fetal death, Gunma
prefecture started declining since 1900s as well as the whole of Japan while it shows us the rate was
rapidly increased in later 1940s and early 1950s12. The reason is little sure here, but probably to someextent the enforcement of the Eugenic Protection Law contributed to it.
It is also little easy to collect village/town level demographic indices from 1910s to 1920s in Japan.
Concerning to village/town level data, we can utilize the case of stillbirth and fertility in 1925 and1933, and infant mortality just in 1933 while county level data of stillbirth and fertility are available
from 1912 to 1924 every year in the Gunma Statistical Table. Among them, the data of village/town
level infant mortality in 1933 came from the research conducted by the Imperial Gift Foundation Aiiku
Association for Maternal-Child Health and Welfare, which jurisdiction was transmitted to the Ministryof Health and Welfare (MHW) and the new version of the demographic data was published in 1938
under the name of the editor of the Social Department in the MHW 13.

3. Results
1) Relationship between the morbidity of VD, stillbirth, fertility, and infant mortality in the Taisho
Gunma: County-level statistical analysis
Diagram 1-6 shows the scattered plots of these variables on the county level. Due to the observationof the Diagrams, first, we can show the positive relationship between the morbidity rate of VD among
aged 20 men and the stillbirth rate based on the county (gun) level data summed up village and town’s
data during the Taisho period, ca.1910s-1920s, which is no statistically significant. It means the county
Takase[1991].
see the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare provides us the digital data of
fertility, fetal death and infant mortality and shows the time-series diagram of them on
the Home page.
13 See Aiikukai[1934-36]
11
12

4

where adult men aged twenty were infected more frequently by VD had higher incidence of peasant
women’s stillbirth and miscarriage. Due to our speculation, peasant men infected at the prostitutehouses came back to their original village, and transmitted the diseases to their wives 14. The venereal
diseases such as syphilis and gonorrhea, especially, resulted in the higher frequency of miscarriage,
spontaneous abortion, and stillbirth.
[Diagram 1-6]
Second, it is very likely that the damage from the venereal diseases on growing embryo and fetus
suppresses the peasant couples’ fertility. We cannot know in detail from historical documents about
the mechanism by which peasant couples kept their fertility lower. What we have to remember here
was that Taisho Japan, ca. 1920, had much higher percentage of childless couples for 5 years who
didn’t practice intentional birth control at all compared with the contemporary historical Europe15. Dr.
Louis Henri, one of founders of modern demography in France, was very surprised to hear the fact but
he could not find the mechanism at last. The higher rate of morbidity of VD made a great contribution
to the lower level of fertility in Japan, and one of the causes is, probably, the distribution of VD,
especially syphilis and gonorrhea in Japan. It also lasted from the Tokugawa era. Diagram1-6 show
the relationship between the morbidity of VD at aged 20 and the ratio of number of birth to 100 people
in Gunma. The latter is the proxy of fertility. We can see the negative relationship between them, whichis statistically significant at almost cases in Table 1.
[Table 1]
Last, we discuss the relationship between morbidity of venereal diseases and infant mortality rate. At
the case of modern Japan, we have no village/town level data of infant mortality until 1933 when theImperial Gift Foundation Aiiku Association for Maternal-Child Health and Welfare, Onshi-zaidan
Boshi Aiiku-kai, investigated and gathered the data of infant mortality, stillbirth, and fertility fromevery village and town in Japan. It shows the positive relationship between the cumulative morbidity
rate of venereal diseases from 1912 to 1924 and the infant mortality in 1933, but which is notstatistically significant.
2) Relationship between the morbidity of VD, stillbirth, fertility, and infant mortality in the Taisho
Gunma: village/town-level statistical analysis
This section shows the result of the statistical analysis based on village/town level data of both the
14
15

Kariya[1993].
See Okazaki[1951]
5

morbidity of VD and demography. In Gunma prefecture, the public licensed prostitute system had
been abolished earliest in Meiji Japan. Soon later, the private prostitute house, Kashizashiki or Ryoriten,
however, was introduced there16. Especially, after the year when the act for restaurant and rental room
was made in 1912, the private prostitute was divided into the two types, Koshu-Ryoriten and Otsushu
Ryoriten (OR). The former refers the higher rank of restaurant where the geisha served alcoholic
beverages and the latter the lower rank of restaurant where ladies except geisha served them andbecame a prostitute with higher probability there. Inevitably, the latter became more popular among
the male people in the Taisho Gunma. MAP2&3 shows the distribution of OR and the corresponded
morbidity of VD and the various demographic indexes such as fertility and stillbirth.
[MAP 2&3]
Therefore, first, the village/town where OR was located is controlled in the regression as dummy
variable, and second, the number of OR in the specified village/town is taken as one explanatory
variable there. The results in Panel A in Table 2 show both of βs, standardized partial regression
coefficient, of fertility and stillbirth in 1933 are statistically significant at lower p-value17. In this paper
the reason why the stillbirth data in 1933 fits better than that of 1924 is little resolved 18. Because thesize of stillbirth is originally rather small compared with that of birth or infant death, the fitting of theregression is becoming somewhat unstable. There is also the possibility that the effect of establishing
the OR system put into in 1912 made to some extent an accumulative contribution to the stillbirth rateby 1933.
[Table 2]
Second, the direct effect of the OR system in Gunma is presented at the Panel B in Table2. As theprostitute index is taken into the regression as a dummy variable, the village/town where OR locatedhas the positive correlation to the morbidity of VD with statistical significance. The location of OR
was also very closely related to the location of place where population density was higher and there
were traditional inns inherited from the Tokugawa era along the main road. Concerning these factors,
the next section in this paper is analysing them. Anyway, the OR system in the Taisho Gunma was themost effective and important institution by which VD was distributed into there.
3) The geographical distribution of morbidity of VD and the relationship to thedemographic indices in the Taisho Gunma: village/town level analysis

See Yamamoto[1983] and Takagi[1925/1997-200].
The value of β means the elasticity of the explanatory variable to the dependent one.
18 The same result is coming from the regression analysis both in the case ofKagoshima and Saga prefecture.
16
17

6

In this section, we measure the effect of VD on demographic indices by shedding lights on thegeographical distribution in Gunma prefecture. In general, VD was mostly transmitted by prostitutes.
Since the Tokugawa period, prostitutes in Japan usually did their business at inns along the main roadand in amusement places such as specific prostitute towns and hot spring spots19. After the year Gunma
prefecture abolished the licensed prostitute system in 1893, they gathered to the special purpose
Japanese restaurant, Ryori-ten, scattered through the whole of the prefecture. The venereal diseases,
VD, were distributed through them to rural areas and other prefectures. In the paper, the effect of thedevelopment of railroad is not considered because around 1920s it had no strong effects on the capacityof transportation, especially human migration in Gunma prefecture.
Map4&5 show the relationship between the geographical distribution of morbidity of VD and thepoints of hot spring and the routes of main roads, Nakasendo and Mikunikaido in Gunma prefectureduring the Taisho period, which still continued to be since the Tokugawa era. In Maps, the differenceof color/color graduation depends on the extent of morbidity rate of VD by village and town used in
the above analysis. We can evidently see the close relationship between the road routes, hot-spring
points and the morbidity rate of VD. It means many prostitutes gathered in some amazing spots suchas hot spring and inns along the main roads.
[Map4&5&6]
Map4&5 also show the geographical distribution of inn along the main roads and the distribution ofmorbidity of VD in Gunma prefecture. There were two main roads, Nakasendo and Mikuni-kaido,
routed in Gunma prefecture in the Taisho period. The Nakasendo, one of five main roads since theTokugawa period, pulled much more people than the Mikuni-kaido, and then many inns and specificprostitute houses gathered along it. The VD were also scattered more densely through the Nakasendo
than the Mikuni-kaido. The result of the regression analysis at Panel C in Table 2 also presents thereis the negative correlation between the distance from Nakasendo and village/town with statisticalsignificance. Beside the transportation routes, needless to say, the location of the Japanese restaurant,
Ryori-ten, made a great contribution of the geographical distribution of VD in the Taisho Gunma. But
above mentioned, there is no doubt the location of OR was closely related to the condition how many
people gathered or currently resident there. MAP6 also confirms the positive correlation ship between
the morbidity of VD and the population density in the Taisho Gunma. This consideration leads us tothe hypothesis that there was very close correlation between human migration, the location of OR, andthe geographical distribution of VD in the Taisho Gunma.
19

Kariya[1993].
74). The geographical distribution of morbidity of VD and the human migration in the
Taisho Gunma: village/town level analysis .
Because VD are one kind of STD, human migration has the decisive effect on the distribution of them.
The years, 1910s to 1920s, this paper covers was in the middle of the stage of socio-economic greattransformation such as urbanization and factory industrialization in Japan. Accordance with theprocess, certainly the size and frequency of human migration was becoming much bigger and higher
in the Taisho Gunma. What distinguished the traditional market economy of the Tokugawa period withthe modern one with the factory industrialization was that the traditional economy and society in the
Tokugawa period was mainly stimulated not by the goods movement but the human movement. The
socio-economic situation of the Taisho Gunma, if anything, was similar to that of the Tokugawa era
rather than that of factory industrialization. MAP7 clearly presents the positive correlation between
the human migration rates, net migration and gross migration, and the population density.
[MAP7]
Panel D in Table 2 presents the positive effect of gross and net migration on the distribution ofmorbidity of VD, in which the βof the net was bigger than that of the gross migration. In general,
VD is distributed more frequently in the places which are densely populated and voluminously
migrated while VD in the Taisho Gunma had the tendency that the patient brought into the village
from outside. Next, Table 3 shows the results of regression analysis for the effect of migration and OR
on the VD morbidity. The one case of regression calculates the effect of OR as one dummy variablewhile the other treat the number of OR in village/town as explanatory variable. Concerning the typeof migration, Table 3 also handles both the case of gross migration and net one. Except the two casesof OR as dummy variable, we can get the statistically robust values of β. This result teaches us each
OR functions very well as a transmitted center of VD in the Taisho Gunma. Although Gunma
prefecture abolished the public licensed system of prostitute earliest in the Meiji Japan, many private
prostitute houses, OR, carried out the function of distribution of VD there at least during the Taisho
period.
[Table 3]

Concluding Remarks
1: The interest of historians and demographers in Japan, so far, has been hardly directed to theinterdisciplinary research area such as the collaboration of demography and epidemiology, physiology
8and medicine. Due to the few micro-analysis on Tokugawa ‘estimated’ fertility, the level of ‘estimated’marital fertility was rather moderate compared with that of the contemporary England and Wales. In
the Tokugawa period, the eastern Japan had rather lower TMFR mainly due to the parity-specificfertility control while the rest of Japan had the similar shape of age-specific natural fertility scheduleeven with moderate level of TMFR. It is the question demographers/historians have to reply why thelevel of fertility was so moderate even in the area where the parity specific control had little been done.
Demographers and historians have to inquiry the physiology of fertility based on the epidemiologicalstatistics. Among many diseases suppressed fertility in Japan, “Karyu-byo”, the Japanese name of VD
such as syphilis, gonorrhea and chancroid, was the most influential before the establishment of theprevention act for VD in 1927.
2: This paper analyzes the mechanism of VD effect on fertility based on the village and town data in
Gunma prefecture around 1910s to 1920s investigated by the bureau of public health and hygiene in
the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). Gunma prefecture was the pioneer where the Japan’s licensed
prostitute system was earliest abolished in 1893. Beside it, however, the private prostitute systemcalled “Kashi-zashiki” prevailed into the whole area of Gunma prefecture by the Taisho period,
ca.1910s. The prostitute system in the modern Japan encountered the socioeconomic change derived
from both urbanization and factory industrialization, which was stimulated by the state policy and the
problem of population increase happened since the late 19 th century. The Gunma prefecture alreadyabolished the licensed prostitute had to react by herself to such a big transformation without the strong
assistance from the Japan’s national government. As a result, no matter whether public prostitute or
private prostitute (Kashizashiki and Ryoriten), the VD in Gunma prefecture was diffused more widelyand frequently during the Taisho period.
3: The demographic data since the early Meiji period had also some difficulties as well as theTokugawa era. As well known, the deficiency of infertility data such as stillbirth and infant death wasevident until the enforcement of burial and graveyard act in 1884. After the year, the number of missing
babies and fetal death had been smoothly diminishing. As for the period this paper covers, thereliability of stillbirth, infant mortality, moreover fertility was almost guaranteed. This paper utilizes
infant mortality rates based on village/town data in 1933, but regrettably the year was in the middle ofthe drastically declining process of infant mortality in Japan. Concerning stillbirth or fetal death,Gunma prefecture started declining since 1900s as well as the rest of Japan while it shows us the rate
was rapidly increased in later 1940s and early 1950s. The reason is little sure here, but probably tosome extent the enforcement of the Eugenic Protection Law contributed to it.
4: As for the relationship between the morbidity of VD, stillbirth, fertility, and infant mortality basedon the Gunma county-level data, first, we can show the positive relationship between the morbidity
rate of VD among aged 20 men and the stillbirth rate , which is no statistically significant. Second,
Diagram1-6 show the relationship between the morbidity of VD at aged 20 and the ratio of number of9birth to 100 people in Gunma. The latter is the proxy of fertility. We can see the negative relationshipbetween them, which is statistically significant at almost cases in Table 1.
5: Concerning to the relationship between the morbidity of VD, stillbirth, fertility, and infant mortality
in the Taisho Gunma based on the village/town-level data, first, the village/town where OR
was located is controlled as a dummy variable in the regression, and second, the number of OR in thespecified village/town is taken as one explanatory variable there. The results in Panel A in Table 2
show both of βs, standardized partial regression coefficients, of fertility and stillbirth in 1933 arestatistically significant at lower p-value. Second, the direct effect of the OR system in Gunma ispresented at the Panel B in Table2. As the prostitute index is taken into the regression as a dummy
variable, the village/town where OR located has the positive correlation to the morbidity of VD withstatistical significance.
6: As for the GIS of Karyu-byo, Map4&5 show the positive correlation between the geographicaldistribution of morbidity of VD and the place points of hot spring and the routes of main roads,
Nakasendo and Mikunikaido in the Taisho Gunma, which still continued to be since the Tokugawa era.
The Nakasendo, one of five main roads since the Tokugawa period, pulled much more people than the
Mikuni-kaido, and then many inns and specific prostitute houses gathered along it. The VD were also
scattered more densely through the Nakasendo than the Mikuni-kaido. The result of the regression
analysis at Panel C in Table 2 also presents there is the negative correlation between the distance fromNakasendo and village/town with statistical significance. Beside the transportation routes, needless tosay, the location of the Japanese restaurant, Ryori-ten, made a great contribution of the geographicaldistribution of VD in the Taisho Gunma.
7: Concerning to the geographical distribution of morbidity of VD andthe human

migration in the Taisho Gunma, Because VD are one kind of STD, human migration has thedecisive effect on the distribution of them. Panel D in Table 2 presents the positive effect of gross andnet migration on the distribution of morbidity of VD, in which the βof the net was bigger than thatof the gross migration. In general, VD is distributed more frequently in the places which are densely
populated and voluminously migrated while VD in the Taisho Gunma had the tendency that the patient
brought into the village from outside. Next, Table 3 shows the results of regression analysis for theeffect of migration and OR on the VD morbidity. The one case of regression calculates the effect ofOR as one dummy variable while the other treat the number of OR in village/town as explanatory
variable. Concerning the type of migration, Table 3 also handles both the case of gross migration andnet one. Except the two cases of OR as dummy variable, we can get the statistically robust values ofβ. This result teaches us each OR functions very well as a transmitted center of VD in the Taisho
Gunma.

10

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13

Table１
Simple Regression Analysis for the morbidity of VD and Demographic indices: by county(gun) in Gunma prefecture, 1912 to 1925
β

t

P

R2

n

1912 - 1913

-0.4723

1.69450.12100.145412

1913 - 1914

-0.36291.23140.24630.044812

1914 - 1915

-0.3523

1.1906

0.26130.036612

1915 - 1916

-0.7184

3.26590.00850.467712

1916 - 1917

-0.8970

6.41740.00010.7851

12

1917 - 1918

-0.7388

3.46720.00600.500512

1918 - 1919

-0.8551

5.21630.00040.704412

1919 - 1920

-0.6986

3.08780.01150.436912

1920 - 1921

-0.58432.38820.03600.2816

12

1921 – 1922

-0.3754

1.34350.20620.062912

1922 - 1923

-0.3869

1.39150.19160.072412

1923 -1924-0.73713.61730.00400.5018121924 - 1925

-0.1866

0.63000.5416

0.0348121912 - 1913

-0.29900.99100.34510.089412

1913 - 1914

-0.2652

0.86970.40480.070312

1914 - 1915

0.38351.31300.21850.147112

1915 - 1916

0.33001.10550.29480.1089121916 - 1917

-0.26150.85680.4116

0.068412

1917 - 1918

0.12470.39750.69940.0156

12

1918 - 1919

-0.26260.86040.40970.068912

1919 - 1920

-0.28900.95470.36220.083512

1920 - 1921

-0.0856

0.28510.78090.007312

1921 - 1922

0.2751

0.94890.36300.075712

1922 - 1923

0.12300.41100.68900.0151

12

1923 -1924-0.14040.47040.64720.019712

1924 - 1925

0.00070.00220.99830.000012

X = VD(each year)

A.

B.

Fertility (Y)Stillbirth (Y)Note) VD: morbidity of VD at aged 20, Fertility = N of birth / 1000 persons,
14

Stillbirth = N of stillbirth / N of birth
Source) Demography: Gunma Ken Tokei Sho (Gunma Prefecture Statistics), 1912-1925.
Morbidity of D.V.: Takagi[1925], Appendix, Table34, pp.402-410.

15

Table ２
Simple Regression Analysis for the morbidity of VD and Demographic/other indices: by village/town in Gunma prefecture, 1912 to 1925
X = VD (1912-1924)
A. Demographic Indices

β

t

P

R2

n

3.4298

0.001

0.147

70

1.12690.26370.018370

2.15330.001

0.032070

0.00030.0638204

1. Fertility: 1912-24, OR located-0.3840
2. Stillbirth: 1924, OR located0.1354
3. Stillbirth: 1933, OR located0.2527

B. Prostitute Index (Dummy)(1: village/town OR located, 0: No OR located)
0.17902.5860C. Transportation Index (km, distance from Nakasendo)-0.2535

3.64970.00030.0642196

0.43106.98640.00000.1857216

0.50518.60040.00000.2551216

D. Migration Indices
1. Gross Migration: 1913-21
2. Net Migration: 1913-21Note) VD: morbidity of VD at aged 20, Fertility = N of birth / 1000 persons, Stillbirth = N ofstillbirth / N of birth, OR: Otsushu Ryoriten(prostitute house), Gross Migration = (in + out)/
current resident population, Net Migration = in/out
Source) Morbidity of D.V. and Prostitution index: Takagi[1925], Appendix, Table34, pp.402-410.
Demography and Migration indices: Gunma Ken Tokei Sho (Gunma Prefecture Statistics), 19121925.,

16

Table ３
Regression Analysis of the morbidity of VD and indices of Migration and Prostitute: by village/town in Gunma prefecture, 1912 to 1925
β

t

P

R2

n

0.2198218

0.2033218

0.1289218

0.0937218

Y: V.D. morbidity rate (1912-1924)
X 1: Gross Migration

0.38775.81900.000

X 2: N. of OR

0.14572.18720.0298

X 1: Gross Migration

0.4413

6.94440.000

X 2: OR (Dummy)

0.22840.47800.6332

Y: V.D. morbidity rate (1912-1924)
X 1: Net Migration

0.20112.81000.0054

X 2: N. of OR

0.21943.06510.0025

X 1: Net Migration

0.28124.04990.0001X 2: OR (Dummy)

0.05680.81710.4148Note) VD: morbidity of VD at aged 20, OR: Otsushu Ryoriten(prostitute house), OR(Dummy);
1= OR located; 0 = No OR located, Gross Migration = (in + out)/current resident population, Net
Migration = in/out
Source) Morbidity of D.V. and Prostitution index: Takagi[1925], Appendix, Table34, pp.402-410.
Migration indices: Gunma Ken Tokei Sho (Gunma Prefecture Statistics), 1912-1925.,

17

Scattered Diagram 1.

Scattered Diagram 2.
VD morbidity and Stillbirth rate in future :by county in Gunma, 19121933

4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
0

1
2
3
4
VD morbidity at aged 20, 1912-1924

5

Gunma
Tako
Kitakanra
Usui
Agatsuma
Tone
Nitta
YamadaSawa
Oura
MaebashiTakasaki
Kiryu

0.08
0.07

Stillbirth rate, 1933

Fertility rate,1925

VD morbidity and Fertility rate: by county in Gunma, 19121925
Seta

0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
0

0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0

1

2

3

4

VD morbidity at aged 20, 1912-1924

5

3

4

5

VD morbidity and Infant mortality at aged 0 :by county in Gunma, 1912-1933
14

Seta
Gunma
Tako
Kitakanra
Usui
Agatsuma
Tone
Nitta
YamadaSawa
Oura
MaebashiTakasaki
Kiryu

Infant mortality at aged 0, 1933

Stillbirth rate,1925

0.08

2

VD morbidity at aged 20, 1912-1924

VD morbidity and Stillbirth rate :by county in Gunma, 19121925

0.1

1

Seta
Gunma
Tako
Kitakanra
Usui
Agatsuma
Tone
Nitta
YamadaSawa
Oura
MaebashiTakasaki
Kiryu

12
10
8
6
4
2
0
0

1

2

3

VD morbidity at aged 20, 1912-1924

Source) Gunma Prefecture Statistics[1912-24], Cabinet Statistics[1925]

4

5

Seta
Gunma
Tako
Kitakanra
Usui
Agatsuma
Tone
Nitta
YamadaSawa
Oura
MaebashiTakasaki
Kiryu

Source) Gunma Prefecture Statistics[1912-24], Aiikukai Statistics[1934-6]

Scattered Diagram 3

18

Scattered Diagram 4

Scattered Diagram 5

VD morbidity and Fertility rate: by county in Gunma, 19191925

VD morbidity and Stillbirth rate in future :by county in Gunma,Seta
1919-1933
Gunma

4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

0.08

Tako

Kitakanra

Stillbirth rate, 1933

Fertility rate, 1925

Seta

Usui
Agatsuma
Tone

Nitta
YamadaSawa
Oura

Maebashi

0

1

2

3

4

0.07
0.06

0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0

Takasaki

5

0

Kiryu

VD morbidity at aged 20, 1919-1924

Tako
Kitakanra
Usui
Agatsuma

Tone
Nitta
YamadaSawa

Oura
Maebashi

1

2

3

4

5

TakasakiKiryu

VD morbidity at aged 20, 1919-1924

3

4

14

Gunma

12

Tako

10

Usui

8

Agatsuma

Kitakanra

Tone

6

Nitta

4

Yamada

2

Sawa
Oura

0

0

1

2

3

4

VD morbidity at aged 20, 1919-1924

Source) Gunma Prefecture Statistics[1912-24], Cabinet Statistics[1925]

Infant mortality at aged 1, 1933

VD morbidity and Infant mortality at aged 1 :by county inGunma, 1919-1933

5
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0

Seta
Gunma
Tako
Kitakanra

Usui
Agatsuma
Tone
Nitta
Yamada

Sawa
Oura

1

2

5

MaebashiTakasaki
Kiryu

Source) Gunma Prefecture Statistics[1912-24], Aiikukai Statistics[1934-6]

Scattered Diagram 6

0

5

Seta

Gunma

0

2

VD morbitdity and Infant mortality at aged 0 :by county inGunma, 1919-1933

Infant mortality at aged 0, 1933

Stillbirth rate, 1925

VD morbidity and Stillbirth rate :by county in Gunma, 19191925
Seta
0.1
0.09
0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0

1

VD morbidity at aged 20, 1919-1924

Gunma
Tako
Kitakanra
Usui
Agatsuma
Tone
Nitta
YamadaSawa
Oura
MaebashiTakasaki
Kiryu

3

4

VD morbidity at aged 20, 1919-1924

5

MaebashiTakasaki
Kiryu

Source) Gunma Prefecture Statistics[1912-24], Aiikukai Statistics[1934-6]

19

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