26/09/2019

Heat Roadmap Europe

RE Scenarios and Results for decarbonising Hetingand Cooling in the European Union

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

Based on presentation by Rasmus Lund & Brian Vad Mathiesen, Aalborg University

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEUAgenda• Heating and cooling in Europe• The Heat Roadmap Europe project series• Strategies in the European Union• Approach and Methods• Interaction between energy models• Scenario structure• Cost balance: Savings vs. supply• Results• Reduction of thermal demands• Heat pumps vs. DH• General results

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

Heating vs other sectors

Heating and cooling demand in 2015 in the EU28 by end-use
compared to total final energy demand- Large share for All Member States (not just the ‘cold’ North)- Overall cooling share in general is 10-15%

Heating and cooling demand in 2015 in the EU28 by end-use
compared to total final energy demandThis project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

HRE 1, 2, 3, 4
• Study 1 (2012): will district heating play a role in the decarbonisation of
the European energy system?
• Study 2 (2013): what is the balance between heat savings and heat
supply at an EU level?
• Study 3 (2015, STRATEGO WP2): low-carbon heating and coolingstrategies for five member states• Study 4 (2016-2019): integrated low-carbon heating and coolingstrategies for 14 member states
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

HRE4 – A large collaboration

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

Targets and challenges in Europe• Long‐term target (2011)• 80‐95% reduction of CO

emissions in the energy sector• Short term in the energy union(2015)
Security of supply, solidarity andtrust (gas, oil electricity)• An integrated marked (electricity)• Energy efficiency (first)• Lower CO2 emissions• Research and innovation
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

Focus in Europe‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐

Energy Savings (energy efficiency firstprinciple)
More electricity in the energy system
More distributed production
Gas in a transition
Contribution from nuclear
Much more Renewable EnergyReductions in energy imports and prices
More investments – less costs for fuels
Increasing electricity prices until 2030 –then decreases
Large reductions in emissions istechnically and economically possible.

2020

2030

2040

2050

(2009)(2015)(2011)(2011)

20%

40%

Lower greenhousegas emissions

Lower greenhousegas emissions

20%

27%

Renewable energy

Renewable energy

20%

30%

Energy efficiency

Energy efficiency

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

60%

80‐95%

Lower greenhousegas emissions

Lower greenhousegas emissions

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

An EU Strategy for Heating and Cooling• A first attempt a holistic approach to theheating and cooling sectors• The first move from only looking atbuildings to also looking at buildings as partof the energy system• Energy savings, energy efficiency, electricity
AND district heating is mentioned in thefirst line of the European Commission’s newVision for Heating and Cooling• Synergies by looking across sectors is infocus
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

Heating and Cooling Can Have Very High
Renewable Energy Penetrations

Source: Mapping and analysesof the current and future
heating‐cooling fueldeployment, 2016
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

Renewable Energy Share in Heating &Cooling (%)

Renewable Energy vs. District Heating
Renewable Energy vs. District Heating
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%

20%
40%
District Heating Share (%)

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

60%

Austria
Bulgaria
CyprusDenmark
FinlandGermany
Hungary
Italy
Lithuania
Malta
PolandRomania
Slovenia
SwedenBelgium
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
FranceGreeceIreland
LatviaLuxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
United Kingdom

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

Why isn’t it happening?
• Heating is complex• Heating is local• Heating is long term
• Lack of knowledge• Heat savings and district heating have large investment costs• Heating is cultural, ownership problems and profit margins

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

Our Purpose•

Creating scientific evidence to support long‐term energy strategies at local, national, and EU leveland empower the transition to a low‐carbon energy system•

By quantifying the impact of various alternatives for addressing the heating and cooling sectors

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

Relationship Between the Energy Models
Peta: Mapping Location of Heatingand Cooling

Heating and Cooling Sectors
in Detail
FORECAST - Heating andCooling Transition

Single Years

JRC‐EU‐TIMES – Annual Energy
System Transition

Transition

EnergyPLAN - Hourly Energy
System Interactions

Energy System in Detail(Electricity, heating, cooling, and transport)
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

Energy system dynamics• Hourly resolution• Sector integration• Aggregated• Smart energy systemapproachThis project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

Data flows between models

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

Balance between savings and supply• Savings• Residential• Service• Industry• Supply• Heat pumps• District heatingThis project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

30‐50%
Cost ofHeat
Savings(€/kWh)Cost of
Supplying Heat

Amount of Savings (TWh)www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

Balance between savings and supply
not affect the HP / DHbalance and vice versa• Industry and service savings
generally feasible• Residential savings differbetween countries• DH feasible in all countries
but different levels

France: totalenergy systemcosts (M€/year)

Percentage of market sharecovered by DH• Reductions in demand do

Residential sector space heating savings (additional toa 30% reduction already in the Baseline)
0

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0%

175532

175582

175266175452

1758831759785%175219175263174932175104

17552917560811%17487517489817454817469917509917516218%

17456617457017419717432917470617475226%

174327174317173922

17403717439417441834%

17419717416817375217385217419117420042%17419017414217370917378917410717410151%

17440017433417387817394017424017421659%175121

175038174562174604

17488517484468%

176559176454175961

17598617624617618579%

185911

185790185275

185282

185524

185443This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

Development of thermal demands• Total of 30% reduction inThis project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

5000
TWh/Yearspace and hot water
demand• More than current EUpolicy• Combining refurbishment
and new efficientbuildings• Cooling demands
expected to increase

6000

4000

Space heating
Process heating

3000

Hot waterSpace cooling

2000

Process cooling

1000
0
BL 2015

BL 2050/CD 2050

HRE 2050

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

Heat pumps and district heating shares• Building Heat pumps• Increase in share from 1% to about half of the heat market• DH supply• Increase from 12% to cover the other half of the heat market• Fuel boilers and electric heating for heating should be limited
as far as possible / eliminatedThis project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

Feasible shares of DH% of heat demand supplied by district heating

9080
7060
50
40
30
20
100AT

BECZ

DE

Baseline 2015
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

ESFIFR

HU

Baseline / CD 2050

ITNL

PLROSEUK

HRE 14

Interval of feasible share of DH

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

District heating production• Large variety of heatDistrict heating source shares in HRE 2050

sources• The feasibility of DH is notdependent on any single
heat source• Cogeneration of heat andpower production may
decrease with increasing
RES

CHP plants
Geothermal
Heat pumps
Solar thermal
Industrial excess
Electric boilers
Fuel boilers
Waste incineration
Fuel production
heat recovery

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

Primary energy supply• Same range as 2015 but
different sources• Large reduction in fossilfuels• Total reduction in fuel• But increase in biomass• This should be reduced

25000

Export/Import
Wind
Wave & tidal
Waste
Solar heat
Solar elec.
Oil
NuclearNatural gas
Hydro
Geothermal heat
Geothermal elec.
CoalBiomass

20000
15000
10000
5000
0

further-5000
BL 2015This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

BL 2050

CD 2050

HRE 2050
www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019• Reduction of ~150 B€/year• Increase in investment costs• Job creation• Reduced energy pricefluctuation• Decrease in fuel costs• Lower dependence on import

Annual Cost Breakdown, billion EUR

Total energy system costsof fossil fuels

1.400
1.200
1.000
800
600
4002000
Conventionally decarbonized Heat Roadmap Europe2050
Annual investment

CO2FuelOperation & MaintenanceThis project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

Emission comparaison
6000

CO2 emissions, Mtonnes/year

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
01990
Total
This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

2015
Other sectors

BL 2050
Non-energy fuels

CD 2050

HRE 2050

Energy and industry

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU

26/09/2019

More information• Paardekooper, Lund, Mathiesen, Chang et al. Heat Roadmap
Europe 4: Quantifying the Impact of Low‐Carbon Heating andCooling Roadmaps. Aalborg University Press

This project has received funding fromthe European Union's Horizon 2020
research and innovation programme
under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu@HeatRoadmapEU