Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12
DOI 10.1186/s40645-016-0092-7

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Progress in Earth andPlanetary Science

Open AccessExamination of the largest-possible
tsunamis (Level 2) generated along the
Nankai and Suruga troughs during the past
4000 years based on studies of tsunami
deposits from the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami
Akihisa Kitamura1,2

Abstract
Japanese historical documents reveal that Mw 8 class earthquakes have occurred every 100–150 years along the
Suruga and Nankai troughs since the 684 Hakuho earthquake. These earthquakes have commonly caused large
tsunamis with wave heights of up to 10 m in the Japanese coastal area along the Suruga and Nankai troughs. Fromthe perspective of tsunami disaster management, these tsunamis are designated as Level 1 tsunamis and are thebasis for the design of coastal protection facilities. A Mw 9.0 earthquake (the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake) and amega-tsunami with wave heights of 10–40 m struck the Pacific coast of the northeastern Japanese mainland on 11
March 2011, and far exceeded pre-disaster predictions of wave height. Based on the lessons learned from the 2011
Tohoku-oki earthquake, the Japanese Government predicted the tsunami heights of the largest-possible tsunami(termed a Level 2 tsunami) that could be generated in the Suruga and Nankai troughs. The difference in wave
heights between Level 1 and Level 2 tsunamis exceeds 20 m in some areas, including the southern Izu Peninsula.
This study reviews the distribution of prehistorical tsunami deposits and tsunami boulders during the past 4000 years,
based on previous studies in the coastal area of Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan. The results show that a tsunami deposit
dated at 3400–3300 cal BP can be traced between the Shimizu, Shizuoka and Rokken-gawa lowlands, whereas nogeologic evidence related to the corresponding tsunami (the Rokken-gawa–Oya tsunami) was found on the southern
Izu Peninsula. Thus, the Rokken-gawa–Oya tsunami is not classified as a Level 2 tsunami.
Keywords: Tsunami deposits, Late Holocene, Suruga Trough, Nankai Trough, Shizuoka Prefecture, 2011 Tohoku-oki
tsunami deposit, Level 2 tsunami

BackgroundThe 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake,
which is the largest earthquake (Mw 9.0) recorded inJapan, occurred on 11 March 2011 off the Pacific coastof the northeastern Japanese mainland (Fig. 1). The
earthquake generated a mega-tsunami with a runup
height of 10–40 m in coastal areas of Iwate, Miyagi, andnorthern Fukushima prefectures and resulted in ~20,000
Correspondence: seakita@ipc.shizuoka.ac.jp1
Institute of Geosciences, Shizuoka University, 836 Oya, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka
422-8529, Japan
2
Center for Integrated Research and Education of Natural Hazards, Shizuoka
University, 836 Oya, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka 422-8529, Japan

deaths. The tsunami eroded sand from beaches anddunes, and deposited sediments inland (e.g., Goto et al.
2011; Richmond et al. 2012; Szczuciński et al. 2012;
Takashimizu et al. 2012). A historical document known
as Sandai-jitsuroku records a similar mega-tsunami,
called the Jogan tsunami, which occurred in AD 869.
Abe et al. (1990) reported deposits from the Jogan tsunami on the Sendai Plain. From the Jogan tsunami
deposit and two older, prehistorical tsunami deposits,
Minoura et al. (2001) estimated that the recurrence
interval for large tsunamis in the area is 800–1100 years
and concluded that the likelihood of a large tsunami
inundating the Sendai Plain is high. The Jogan tsunami© 2016 Kitamura. Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, andreproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to
the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

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Fig. 1 Locality map. a The Japan Islands, showing the plate configuration and the locations of the studied areas. EU Eurasia Plate, NA North American
Plate, PAC Pacific Plate, PHS Philippine Sea Plate, 1 Epicenter of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake (Mw 9.0), 2 Epicenter of the 1944 Tonankai earthquake(Mw 8.2), 3 Epicenter of the 1854 Ansei-Tokai earthquake (M 8.4), 4 Epicenter of the 1707 Hoei earthquake (M 8.4). Dashed lines are plate boundaries. b
Sites of previous studies of sandy tsunami deposits (numbers refer to those in Table 1) resulting from the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami and the 869 Jogan
tsunami. c Flow height and runup height of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami, modified after Goto et al. (2012)

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

deposit has also been reported from the coastal plain ofnorthern Fukushima Prefecture (Shishikura et al. 2010;
Sawai et al. 2012). These previous studies, which wereconducted before the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake,
demonstrate that tsunami deposits can reveal information about the occurrence and extent of mega-tsunamis
over time scales of several thousand years.
Based on the lessons learned from the 2011 Tohoku-oki
earthquake, the Cabinet Office, Government of Japan(2013), has presented information on the two types of tsunamis expected in the future in the Suruga and Nankai
troughs, where the Philippine Sea Plate is subducting
beneath the Eurasian Plate (Fig. 1) (Goto et al. 2014a).
One type is large tsunamis (Level 1 tsunami) with wave
heights of 5–10 m in coastal areas, which have occurred
every 100–150 years in the area since the 684 Hakuho
earthquake (e.g., Ando 1975; Watanabe 1998; Sangawa
2001; Figs. 2 and 3). Level 1 tsunami events are caused
mainly by Mw 8 class earthquakes. The other type oftsunami is the largest-possible tsunami (Level 2 tsunami)
caused by the largest-possible earthquake (Mw 9.1;
Cabinet Office, Government of Japan, 2012) that occur
along megathrusts in the Nankai Trough (Fig. 2). Level 2
tsunami events will be infrequent but cause widespread
damage. In 2012, the government also presented 11 casesof the wave heights of Level 2 tsunamis (Fig. 4). For detailsof the method used for calculation of wave heights, see
Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (2012). The
Shizuoka Prefectural Government (2013) used modelcases 1, 6, and 8 for the wave heights of Level 2 tsunamis(Fig. 5), because the wave heights in Shizuoka Prefecturein these models are higher than in the other models. A
recently constructed coastal dike has reduced the projected inundation area of Level 1 and 2 tsunamis, andaffects the comparison of the inundation area and sedimentary deposits resulting from past tsunamis.
The wave height of a Level 2 tsunami would be 1–
20 m higher than that of a Level 1 tsunami for all areasin Shizuoka Prefecture (Fig. 5). For disaster preparedness in Japan, it is important to examine the occurrences of Level 2 tsunamis over time scales of several
thousand years based on analyses of tsunami deposits.
The wave height of a Level 2 tsunami in the Suruga andNankai troughs (Fig. 4) would be similar to that of the
Tohoku-oki tsunami (Fig. 1). In addition, the main
morphological elements from marsh through beachridge to the open Pacific Ocean are similar in both thecoastal areas of Shizuoka Prefecture (Fujiwara et al.
2013; Kitamura et al. 2013a, b, 2015a; Kitamura andKobayashi 2014a, b; Kitamura and Kawate 2015) andthe Tohoku area (e.g., Goto et al. 2011; Abe et al. 2012;
Takashimizu et al. 2012; Koiwa et al. 2014; Ishimura
and Miyauchi 2015). Therefore, the sedimentary characteristics and spatial distributions of the tsunami

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deposits formed by the Tohoku-oki tsunami are used asa reference for determining the deposits that would be
generated by a Level 2 tsunami in the coastal area of
Shizuoka Prefecture, Japan.

Methods
The Tohoku-oki tsunami deposits were reviewed byGoto et al. (2012). Here, I summarize this previous
review and cover advances made since that study. In
addition, I compile existing data on the stratigraphic distribution of prehistorical tsunami deposits and tsunami
boulders in Shizuoka Prefecture.
The Tohoku-oki event caused a maximum coastal
tsunami wave height of nearly 40 m along the Sanriku
coast (e.g., Mori et al. 2012) with a maximum inundation distance of 5 km inland from the beach on boththe Ishinomaki and Sendai plains (e.g., Nakajima andKoarai 2011). Previous studies have examined the 2011
Tohoku-oki tsunami deposit in many parts of the
900 km long coastline between southwestern Hokkaido
and the northern Boso Peninsula (Fig. 1), except for thearea near the Fukushima–Daiichi Nuclear Plant, which
was severely damaged by the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and the subsequent mega-tsunami. Table 1 lists
the characteristics of sandy tsunami deposits at thesesites. Similarly to the findings of the review by Goto etal. (2012), the deposits in all of the study areas have a
sharp erosional base, but other sedimentary characteristics vary between the sites. Parallel laminations arecommonly observed in the deposits.
It is noteworthy that marine fossils were only detected
in a few areas. The presence of marine fossils in sedimentary deposits has been regarded as a key criterion
for the identification of paleotsunami events in the geologic record (e.g., Chagué-Goff et al. 2011; Clark et al.
2011). Sugawara et al. (2014) performed numerical modeling to explain the absence of marine fossils, and demonstrated that the tsunami caused a significant amountof erosion on beaches and in coastal forest areas, but
was minor on the offshore seafloor where marine organisms are most concentrated.
The 2011 tsunami deposit is up to 40 cm thick andextends up to 4.5 km inland on the Sendai Plain of
Miyagi Prefecture (Goto et al. 2011; Takashimizu et al.
2012). Takashimizu et al. (2012) and Goto et al. (2014b)
examined the relation between the thickness of the tsunami deposit and flow depth based on spatial variationsin the thickness of the 2011 tsunami deposit. The results
show that the sediment thickness increased concomitantly with increasing flow depth, and that the thickness
reached its peak value when the flow depth was 4–5 m.
For flow depths greater than 5 m, almost no deposition
occurred; instead, the erosion of surface sediments outweighed the deposition from the tsunami.

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

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Fig. 2 Spatial–temporal distribution of great earthquakes along the Nankai Trough (Ando 1975; Ishibashi and Satake 1998)

Abe et al. (2012) examined the relationship between
the maximum extent of sandy tsunami deposits and theinundation distance of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami on
the Sendai Plain. The results showed that ≥0.5 cm thicksandy tsunami deposits on seaward-facing slopes commonly extend to over 90 % of the inundation distance
where the inundation distance is less than 2.5 km,
whereas the maximum limit of ≥0.5 cm thick sand layers
on flat plains is 3 km (57–76 % of the inundation distance) for an inundation distance exceeding 2.5 km. This

relationship between the maximum extent of sandy tsunami deposits and inundation distance is consistent withthat of the 15 November 2006 Kuril Island tsunami
reported by MacInnes et al. (2009).
Namegaya and Satake (2014) compared the distribution of the Jogan sandy tsunami deposit with that of
the 2011 sandy tsunami deposit on the Sendai and
Ishinomaki plains, and estimated that the rupture
length of the 869 Jogan earthquake was at least 200 km
and its minimum moment magnitude was 8.6. The

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

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Fig. 3 Inundation heights of tsunamis caused by historical earthquakes. Distribution of inundation (heights in meters) in the coastal areas around
Suruga Bay and Enshu-nada, as presented by Hatori (1976) and Watanabe (1998) for a the 1707 Hoei earthquake and b the 1854 Ansei-Tokai earthquake

Jogan sandy tsunami deposits have also been reported
from the Sanriku Coast (Sugawara et al. 2012; Ishimura
and Miyauchi 2015) and from Fukushima Prefecture(Shishikura et al. 2010; Sawai et al. 2012).

Results and discussion
Prehistorical tsunami deposits in Shizuoka Prefecture

The prehistorical tsunami deposits in Shizuoka Prefecture
have been reviewed by Komatsubara et al. (2006) and
Komatsubara and Fujiwara (2007). Here, I summarize theprevious reviews as well as more recent information.
Southern Izu Peninsula

The coastal lowland areas of Minami-Izu and Shimoda
have been inundated by many large tsunamis during thepast 400 years. The estimated wave heights of the 1707
Hoei tsunami were 5 and 5–6 m at Minami-Izu andShimoda, respectively (Fig. 3a) (Hatori 1977). The wave
heights of the 1854 Ansei-Tokai tsunami were 5 and4.4–6.8 m at Minami-Izu and Shimoda, respectively(Figs. 3b and 6) (Hatori 1977). For a Level 2 tsunami,
the predicted tsunami wave heights are 10–20 m (Figs. 5
and 6). On the basis of the faunal compositions and14
C ages of emergent sessile assemblages examined byKitamura et al. (2015b, c), the southern Izu Peninsula
is inferred to have experienced co-seismic uplift in

1256–950 BC, AD 1000–1270, AD 1430–1660, and AD
1506–1815, caused by movement on a reverse fault
located off the southern Izu Peninsula. The highest
emergent sessile marine invertebrates, dated at 1256–
950 BC, occur at 3.40 m above mean sea level (amsl).
Kitamura et al. (2013a), Kitamura and Kobayashi(2014a) and Kitamura and Kawate (2015) analyzed thestratigraphy and paleoenvironmental setting of Holocene
deposits in the southern Izu Peninsula based on an outcrop (site 2 in Fig. 6f ) and sediment cores (8–11 m long)from 16 sites (1.3–9.1 m amsl) (Figs. 6, 7, and 8). Elevensites are located within the inundation area of a Level 2
tsunami, and sites S5, S6, and S7 in Shimoda are locatedwithin the inundation area of the Ansei-Tokai tsunami(Fig. 6c). The record of the deposits extends back to
7840–7690 cal BP (Site 8 in Fig. 7). Kitamura andKobayashi (2014a) identified a possible tsunami depositat site 5 on Shimoda (1.76 m amsl; Fig. 7) that may haveformed during the 1707 Hoei event or the 1854 AnseiTokai tsunami.
Kitamura et al. (2014) reported a tsunami boulder,
3.4 m long and ~32 metric tons in weight, which wasrolled by the Ansei-Tokai tsunami onto a coastal plateau
at Nabeta Bay (Fig. 6d), based on the 14C ages of theemergent sessile assemblages. In this area, a tsunami
height of more than 20 m for a Level 2 tsunami wasKitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

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Fig. 4 Model of the tsunami wave height of a Level 2 tsunami. After Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (2012). Place names are shown on Figs. 1, 2,
and 3

predicted (Fig. 6). Many large boulders are present on
the coastal plateau around Nabeta Bay, although boulders do not occur above the supratidal area.
Shimizu Plain

The Shimizu Plain is adjacent to Orido Bay, which isprotected from the open ocean by the Miho Peninsula(Figs. 5 and 9). Low-lying (<5 m amsl) terrain is present
along the Tomoe River up to 3 km inland from thecoast, and is protected by a coastal dike. The wave

heights of the Hoei earthquake tsunami along the Pacificside of the Miho Peninsula and the coastal area of thenorthern Shimizu Plain are estimated to have been 5 m
and 4 m, respectively (Fig. 3a) (Hatori 1977). The wave
heights of the tsunami generated by the Ansei-Tokai
earthquake were estimated to have been 6 and 3 m on
the Pacific coast of Miho Peninsula and the coastal areaof the northern Shimizu Plain, respectively (Fig. 3b)(Hatori 1977). However, no evidence of the Ansei-Tokaitsunami has been documented in the coastal area of theKitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

Fig. 5 Wave height (m) of Level 1 and 2 tsunamis in Shizuoka Prefecture. After Shizuoka Prefectural Government (2013)

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Height amsl (m)Maximum
thickness(cm)

Numbersof layers

Inner structure

Laminations

Sorting

Presence ofmarine fossils

Presence of
rip-up clasts

1

Atsuma river,
Hokkaido

3.53(inundation
height)ca. 206(1) Erosinal basement.
(2) Sand layers seperated
by mud drape.

Parallel > >
cross

Well

Diatoms

No detection Oota et al. 20122

Misawa coast,
Aomori Prefecture

3.5–8.8(flow height)

561(1) Erosinal basement.
(2) Normal grading.

Massive >parallel >cross

Well tomoderately

No detection

No detection Nakamura et al. 2012

3

Southern Misawa
coast, Aomori
Prefecture

8 (run upheight)48

1 to 3(1) Erosinal basement.
(2) Normal grading> reverse grading.

Parallel–No detection

No detection Koiwa et al. 2014

4

Mouth of Fudai
river, Iwate
Prefecture

23 (run up
height)60

1(1) Erosinal basement.
(2) Normal grading.

Parallel

PoorlyNo detection

No detection Seo and Okushi 20125

Miyako City,
Iwate Prefecture

28.1 (flowdepth at thecoast)

ca 1001(1) Erosinal basement.
normal and inverse grading

Massive–

No detection

Presence

6

Koyadori, Iwate
prefecture

26-29 (run20
up height)
13-18 (inundation height)

2(1) Erosinal basement.
Partially(2) The lower unit is composed
laminatedof coarse sediments with normal
grading. The upper unit comprises
finer sediments.

––

No detection Ishimura and Miyauchi 2015

7

Rikuzen Takada,
Iwate Prefecture

19.9 (run up height)
31.5
14-15 (inundation height)

1 to 4(1) Erosinal basement.
(2) The normally graded subunit
was generally thicker than the
inverse-graded one.

Parallell > >crossModerately
to poorly

Ostracoda

No detection Naruse et al. 20128

Beach along
Matsushima bay,
Miyagi Prefecture

8-14 (flow heightat the coast)

–

–

–

–

–

Molluscs–

Fujiwara et al. 2014

9

Sendai Plain,
Miyagi Prefecture

11 (flow height at
the coast)

ca 70

1 to 2(1) Erosinal basement.
(2) Normal grading > > massive.

Parallell > >
cross

Well

Very rarediatoms

Presence

Goto et al. 2011; Kitamura andWakayama 2011; Shishikura 2011;
Abe et al. 2012; Pilarczyk et al.
2012; Szczuciński et al. 2012;
Takashimizu et al. 2012;
Putra et al. 2013; Fujiwara andTanigawa 2014; Goto
et al. 2014a, b

10 Minami-Souma,–
Fukushima Prefecture

30

Multiplelayers(1) Erosinal basement.
(2) Normal grading.

Laminar

Poorly––Iijima et al. 2013

11 Kita-Ibaraki, Ibaraki
Prefecture

5.47 (flow heightat the coast)28

1 to 4(1) Erosinal basement.
(2) Sand layers were often
seperated by mud drape.
(3) Massive > normal grading.

Massive >parallelWell

Molluscs

No detection Yamada and Fujino 201312 Norther Boso
Peninsular, Chiba
Prefecture

6 (flow heightat the coast)

354(1) Erosinal basement.
(2) The fine alternation of sandsheet and overlying mud drape.

Massive–

Molluscs

No detection Fujiwara et al. 2012

References

Yamada et al. 2014

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RegionKitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

Table 1 Summary of sandy tsunami deposits related to the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

innermost part of Orido Bay. In this area, predictedwave heights for a Level 2 tsunami are 5–7 m (Fig. 5).
The Shimizu Plain experienced ~1.2 m of uplift during
the Ansei-Tokai earthquake (Fig. 10) (Kitamura andKobayashi 2014b), and the area has subsided gradually(~6 mm/year) during the present interseismic period.
Kitamura and Kobayashi (2014b) analyzed Holocene
sediment cores (9–23 m long) from 12 sites (2.1–8.2 mamsl) in the fluvial–coastal lowland of Shimizu Plain(Fig. 9). Six sites are located within the inundation areaof a Level 2 tsunami (Fig. 9). Sites 1, 3, 4, and 12 arelocated within the inundation area of the Ansei-Tokaitsunami (Shizuoka Prefectural Government 2011).
Kitamura and Kobayashi (2014b) identified four prehistorical tsunami deposits (T-I to T-IV) from shallowwater (from low tide to 40 m depth) muddy-bay deposits(Fig. 9). The deposits yield 14C ages of 6180–6010 to
5700–5580 cal BP for T-I, 5700–5580 to 5520–5320 cal
BP for T-II, 4335–4125 to 4250–4067 cal BP for T-III,and 3670–3540 to 3500–3360 cal BP for T-IV. Kitamura
and Kobayashi (2014b) also found three event deposits(beds 1–3) at site 1-1, and concluded that these beds
may have formed during the 1498 Meio or 1707 Hoei
earthquakes.

Shizuoka Plain

The Oya lowland, to the southeast of the Shizuoka Plain,is bounded by the Udo Hills to the east and by the Abe
River fan to the west (Figs. 5 and 11). Beach ridges anddunes up to 10 m high protect the lowland from Suruga
Bay. At present, a large area of the Oya lowland has an
artificially raised ground level (by ~2 m), with a heightof 7–8 m amsl. Historical evidence of tsunamis in Shizuoka Prefecture demonstrates that the area was affectedby six major tsunami events between the 1096 Eicho
earthquake and the 1944 Tonankai earthquake; however,there are no historical documents suggesting the occurrence of tsunamis on the Oya lowland (Hatori 1977). In
this area, predicted wave heights are 5–10 m for a Level
2 tsunami (Figs. 5 and 11).
Kitamura et al. (2013b) analyzed the stratigraphy
and paleoenvironmental setting of Holocene deposits
based on sediment cores (8–9 m long) from sevensites (6.2–7.8 m amsl) in the Oya lowland (Fig. 11). All
sites are located outside the inundation area of a Level
2 tsunami. The area is protected by a coastal dike.
Sites 1, 3, and 4 are located within the inundation areaof the Ansei-Tokai tsunami (Shizuoka Prefectural
Government 2011). Kitamura et al. (2013b) identified
three possible tsunami deposits: sand beds T0 (around
AD 1000), T1 (3565–3486 cal BP), and T2 (around4000 cal BP) from a lagoonal mud sequence. Sand bed T1
was observed at five sites (3.2–4.5 m amsl), whereas sandPage 9 of 20

beds T0 and T2 were detected at only one site each, site 4
and site 2, respectively (Fig. 11).
On the basis of temporal changes in diatom assemblages, Kitamura et al. (2013b) suggested that sand bed
T1 formed as a result of ruptures along megathrusts in
the Suruga and/or Nankai troughs. At one archeologicalsite (Nagasaki remains) on the northern Shizuoka Plain(Fig. 11a), Shizuoka Prefecture Archaeological Survey
Institute (1991) found faulted layers (Seilacher 1969)
immediately below undeformed sediment including the
Kawagodaira Pumice (Kg), which was erupted between
1210 and 1187 cal BC (95.4 % confidence level; Tani
et al. 2013). As the age of formation of the sedimentdeformation structures is similar to that of the deposition of sand bed T1, it is likely that they were causedby the same earthquake. Kitamura et al. (2013b)
concluded that the youngest sand bed, T0, may becorrelated with the 1096 Eicho earthquake, although
the possibility of the 1099 Kowa earthquake was not
excluded.
Yaizu Plain

The Yaizu Plain is located on the northern area of the
fan delta of the Ooi River and the delta of the Seto River(Figs. 5 and 12). The plain was inundated by a tsunami
generated by the 1498 Meio earthquake that occurred in
the Nankai and Suruga troughs. The wave height of thetsunami is estimated to have been 6–8 m (Hatori 1977).
There are no historical documents that mention theAnsei-Tokai tsunami in this area. The co-seismic uplift
caused by the Ansei-Tokai earthquake is estimated tohave been 1.8 m in the area located 4 km northeast of
the Yaizu Plain (Fig. 10) (Ishibashi 1984). The area has
subsided gradually during the present interseismic
period (Kitamura et al. 2015a). In this area, predictedwave heights for a Level 2 tsunami are 5–10 m (Figs. 5
and 12).
Kitamura et al. (2015a) analyzed late Holocene sedimentary sequences from sediment cores (8–9 m long)collected at nine sites (1.8–4.5 m amsl) in the coastal
area of the Yaizu Plain (Figs. 12 and 13). Six sites are located within the inundation area of a Level 2 tsunami,
and four sites are located within the inundation area of
the Ansei-Tokai tsunami (Shizuoka Prefectural Government 2011). The Kawagodaira Pumice is located 1.5 m
and 0.5 m above the base of the succession at sites 1 and8, respectively. Tsunami deposits were not identified at
any of the sites. Kitamura et al. (2015a) concluded thatthe coastal area of the Yaizu Plain has subsided during
the past 3200 years.
Osuga lowland, Kakegawa

The Osuga lowland extends ~2 km from the shoreline at
Kakegawa (Fig. 5). The wave height of the tsunami

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

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Fig. 6 Map of the study area in the southern Izu Peninsula. The locations of core sites and predictions of wave heights for a Level 2 tsunami andthe 1854 Ansei-Tokai tsunami are shown (after Shizuoka Prefectural Government 2013; Kitamura and Kobayashi 2014a; Kitamura and Kawate 2015). a
Topographic map of central and eastern Shimoda. The base map is the Shimoda 1:25,000 topographic map published by the Geospatial Authority ofJapan. b Prediction of the wave height of a Level 2 tsunami around Shimoda. c Wave heights (above mean sea level, unit: meters) of the Ansei-Tokaitsunami in Shimoda (modified from Hatori 1977). d Tsunami boulder on a wave-cut bench at Nabeta Bay. The inset shows well-preserved
small barnacles on the tsunami boulder. e Topographic map of Minami-Izu and Kisami. The base map is the Mikomojima 1:25,000 topographic map
published by the Geospatial Authority of Japan. f Prediction of the wave height of a Level 2 tsunami around Minami-Izu and Kisami. g Wave heights(above mean sea level, unit: meters) of the Ansei-Tokai tsunami in Minami-Izu. Modified from Hatori (1977)

during the Ansei-Tokai earthquake is estimated to havebeen 4 m in the area 6 km east of the lowland (Fig. 3),
and there are no historical documents of a tsunami disaster caused by the Hoei tsunami in and around thisarea. The co-seismic uplift caused by the Ansei-Tokai
earthquake is estimated to have been 0.9 m in this area
(Fig. 11) (Ishibashi 1984). Predicted wave heights are 8–
10 m for a Level 2 tsunami (Fig. 5).
Uchida (2002) collected many cores using a hand corer
in an inter-dune marsh on the Osuga lowland anddetected nine sandy event beds, although that study did
not provide a map of the locations of the core sites.
Based on the stratigraphic distribution and occurrence ofmarine diatom assemblages in these beds, Uchida (2002)
interpreted that one bed was caused by a tsunami. The

deposit was dated at 1729–1514 cal BP (Fig. 14) (calibrated by Komatsubara et al. 2006).
Rokken-gawa

The Rokken-gawa lowland is located on the southeast
coast of Lake Hamana (Figs. 5 and 15), and is behind a
2–3 m high sand dune. There are no historical documents of tsunami disasters caused by the Hoei andAnsei-Tokai tsunamis in this area. As this area is locatedbeside the lake, the predicted tsunami height is less than
1 m for a Level 2 tsunami.
Fujiwara et al. (2013) examined the stratigraphy andpaleoenvironmental setting of Holocene terrestrial
deposits based on sediment cores (2–3 m) from 20 sites(0.6–1.0 m amsl) (Fig. 15). All sites were located outside

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

Fig. 7 Columnar sections of the study sites in central and eastern Shimoda. Modified from Kitamura and Kobayashi (2014b)

Fig. 8 Columnar sections of the study sites at Minami-Izu and Kisami. Modified from Kitamura and Kawate (2015)

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Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

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Fig. 9 Columnar sections of 12 sites on the Shimizu Plain studied by Kitamura and Kobayashi (2014b). a Topographic map and inundation area of
the Ansei-Tokai tsunami (after Shizuoka Prefectural Government 2011). b Prediction of the wave height of a Level 2 tsunami (after Kitamura and Kobayashi
2014b; Shizuoka Prefectural Government 2013)

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

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Fig. 10 Estimated co-seismic vertical crustal displacement of the 1854 Ansei-Tokai earthquake along the Suruga Bay coast. Units are meters. Figure isafter Ishibashi (1984) and Kitamura and Kobayashi (2014b)

the inundation area of a Level 2 tsunami, although thesesites are located within the inundation area of the AnseiTokai tsunami (Shizuoka Prefectural Government 2011).
Fujiwara et al. (2013) identified a sandy tsunami deposit
dated at ca. 3400–3300 cal BP within a cored transect(Fig. 14). The sand deposit, which is composed of crossstratified, well-sorted, fine to very fine sand, has amaximum thickness of ~25 cm and extends over 600 m
inland from the former coastline. The sand sheet is divided into lower and upper sub-layers by a mud drape.
The lower sub-layer is characterized by current ripples
indicative of a landward flow direction and shows
inverse-graded bedding. The sand sheet is located immediately below the Kawagodaira Pumice. The deposition

Fig. 11 Columnar sections of the study sites on the Oya lowland of the southeastern Shizuoka Plain. a Aerial photograph of the study area(source: website of Geospatial Information Authority of Japan, http://maps.gsi.go.jp/#12/34.985566/138.420353). b Inundation area of the Ansei-Tokaitsunami, after Shizuoka Prefectural Government (2011). The base map is the Shizuoka Tobu 1:25,000 topographic published by the Geospatial Authorityof Japan. c Prediction of the wave height of a level 2 tsunami. After Kitamura et al. (2013b) and Shizuoka Prefectural Government (2013)

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

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Fig. 12 Location map of the study area. a Aerial photograph of the study area (source: website of Geospatial Information Authority of Japan,
http://maps.gsi.go.jp/#12/34.817186/138.330059) b Prediction of the height of a level 2 tsunami on the Yaizu Plain, after Kitamura et al. (2015a)
and Shizuoka Prefectural Government (2013). c Inundation area of the Ansei-Tokai tsunami, after Shizuoka Prefectural Government (2011)of the sand sheet caused an abrupt paleoenvironmental
change along the coastline, in which the area evolved
from a semi-open brackish coastal environment to a
freshwater peaty marsh due to closure of a tidal inlet.
Fujiwara (2013) noted that the tsunami was not an
extremely large tsunami, as inferred from a reconstruction of the past coastal geomorphology.
Lake Hamana

Lake Hamana is connected to the Pacific Ocean via the
Imakire tidal channel (Fig. 3). It is commonly acceptedthat the 1498 Meio tsunami breached the sand ridges that
separated Lake Hamana from Enshu-nada and created the
Imakire channel (Tsuji 1979; Shizuoka Prefecture 1996;
Fujiwara et al. 2013). The wave heights of the Hoei andAnsei-Tokai tsunamis around Imakire are estimated tohave been 3 and 5.6 m, respectively (Fig. 3). In this area,
the predicted wave heights for a Level 2 tsunami are
13–15 m (Fig. 15).
Tsuji et al. (1998) collected sediment cores from Lake
Hamana near Imakire (Fig. 15) and reported five event
beds. The upper three beds were interpreted to represent

the 1707 Hoei, 1605 Keicho, and 1498 Meio tsunamis.
The depositional ages of the lower two beds were estimated to be 3354–3242 cal BP and 3873–3726 cal BP(Fig. 14) (calibrated by Komatsubara et al. 2006).
Figure 14 shows the distribution of prehistorical tsunami deposits in the coastal area of Shizuoka Prefecture.
Given the existence of suitable geologic records for thetime since 4000 years BP, this study discusses whether aLevel 2 tsunami occurred during the past 4000 years.
Kitamura and Kobayashi (2014b) showed that the possible tsunami deposit T1 (3565–3486 cal BP) on the Oya
lowland may correlate to tsunami deposit T-IV (3670–
3540 to 3500–3360 cal BP) on the Shimizu Plain, whereas
tsunami deposits corresponding to T-I, T-II, and T-III on
the Shimizu Plain have not been identified on the Oya
lowland. Given the uncertainty of the ages of tsunami
deposits, Kitamura and Kobayashi (2014b) proposed thatthe above two event beds (T1 and T-IV) may be correlated
to the tsunami deposit (3400–3300 cal BP) found in thehorizon immediately below the Kawagodaira Pumice in
the Rokken-gawa lowland (Fujiwara et al. 2013). Thus,
Kitamura and Kobayashi (2014a) named this event theKitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

Fig. 13 Columnar sections of study sites on the Yaizu Plain, after Kitamura et al. (2015a)

Page 15 of 20

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

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Fig. 14 Ages of prehistorical tsunami deposits in Shizuoka Prefecture reported in previous studies. Shimoda: Kitamura and Kobayashi (2014a),
Minami-Izu: Kitamura et al. (2013b) and Kitamura and Kawate (2015), Shimizu: Kitamura and Kobayashi (2014b), Shizuoka: Kitamura et al. (2013b),
Yaizu: Kitamura et al. (2015a), Osuga: Uchida (2002), Rokken-gawa: Fujiwara et al. (2013), Lake Hamana: Tsuji et al. (1998)

Rokken-gawa–Oya tsunami. The tsunami deposit at Lake
Hamana, dated at 3354–3242 cal BP, may also have beencaused by the Rokken-gawa–Oya tsunami. As noted
above, the possible tsunami deposit T1 on the Oya lowland was linked to an earthquake that caused abrupt upliftof the lowland. Thus, the Rokken-gawa–Oya tsunami wascaused by ruptures along megathrusts in the Suruga and/or Nankai troughs, and is the only prehistorical tsunamithat may correspond to model cases 1, 6, and 8 of a Level
2 tsunami.
As noted above, the Tohoku-oki sandy tsunami deposit is distributed along the 900 km long coastal area
between southwestern Hokkaido and the northern Boso
Peninsula (Fig. 1; Table 1). The Jogan sandy tsunami
deposit also occurs along at least 230-km of coast
between the Sanriku coast and Fukushima Prefecture(Fig. 1; Table 1). In contrast, the length of the coastal
area in Shizuoka Prefecture is only 200 km. Comparing
the distribution of the Tohoku-oki and Jogan sandy tsunami deposits, it is expected that sandy tsunami deposits

and tsunami boulders from a Level 2 tsunami would be
distributed over coastal areas in Shizuoka Prefecture.
Thus, if the Rokken-gawa–Oya tsunami was a Level 2
tsunami, sandy tsunami deposits and tsunami boulders
should be present on the Yaizu Plain and the southern
Izu Peninsula.
Beach ridges up to 5 m high protect the lowland fromthe open sea in both the Yaizu Plain and the coastal lowlands of the southern Izu Peninsula (Tsuchi and Takahashi
1972; Kitamura et al. 2013a; Kitamura and Kawate 2015).
The foreshore, backshore, and beach ridge deposits inthese areas consist mainly of sandy sediment. It is therefore likely that the source of the sandy tsunami deposits of
the Rokken-gawa–Oya tsunami was the Yaizu Plain andthe southern Izu Peninsula.
The Kawagodaira Pumice was found from back-marsh
clayey deposits at sites 1 and 8 on the Yaizu Plain(Fig. 13). The clayey deposits below the pumice are
1.5 m thick at site 1 and 0.5 m thick at site 8. The
absence of sandy tsunami deposits can be explained inKitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

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Fig. 15 Locations of core sites. a Core sites at Lake Hamana (Tsuji et al. 1998) and the inundation area of the Ansei-Tokai tsunami, after Shizuoka
Prefectural Government (2011). b Prediction of the height of a level 2 tsunami around Lake Hamana, after Shizuoka Prefectural Government (2013). c
Core sites in the Rokken-gawa lowland (Fujiwara et al. 2013)

Kitamura Progress in Earth and Planetary Science (2016) 3:12

two ways. First, the depositional ages of the clayey deposits
may be younger than the occurrence of the Rokken-gawa–Oya tsunami. Second, sites 1 and 8 may be located outside
the inundation area of the Rokken-gawa–Oya tsunami. As
the Yaizu Plain has subsided during the past 3200 years(Kitamura et al. 2015a), the paleo-coastline may have been
located offshore of the present-day shoreline, thus explaining why sandy tsunami deposits are absent from cored sediments from the Yaizu Plain.
In model cases 1, 6, and 8 (Figs. 4 and 5), the mean
tsunami wave heights at Shimoda and Minami-izu are
15 m. The coastal area has experienced four co-seismic
uplift events since 1256–950 BC; consequently, the total
uplift has been at least 3.40 m (Kitamura et al. 2015b).
In addition, the depositional succession represents a
regressive phase (Kitamura and Kobayashi 2014a). Theseobservations indicate that the paleo-coastline was locatedinland of the present-day shoreline. Thus, the areas fromwhich sedimentary cores were obtained were more sensitive to tsunamis in the past than at the present day.
As noted above, the thickness of the 2011 tsunami
deposit increases concomitantly with increasing flow
depth, and the thickness reached its peak value when
the flow depth was 4–5 m. At depths greater than 5 m,
almost no deposition occurred. Instead, erosion of surface sediments exceeded deposition from the tsunami.
Site 8 at Shimoda and site K1 at Minami-izu are locatedin a back marsh within the inundation area of a Level 2
tsunami (Fig. 6). The tsunami wave heights of the former
and latter are predicted to be 5–10 and 10–20 m,
respectively (Fig. 6). However, neither tsunami deposits
nor severe erosional contacts were recognized in the
back-marsh deposits at these two sites. In addition, tsunami deposits cannot be found from deposits below the
Kawagodaira Pumice at two sites (site 5 at Shimoda andsite 1 at Minami-izu) (Figs. 7 and 8). Moreover, althougha tsunami boulder moved by the Ansei-Tokai tsunami
occurs in the coastal lowland around Nabeta Bay, older
tsunami boulders cannot be recognized in the area inwhich the tsunami wave height of a Level 2 tsunami isestimated to exceed 20 m (Fig. 6). In summary, theRokken-gawa-Oya tsunami is not regarded as a Level 2
tsunami because the tsunami did not leave either adeposit or an erosional surface on the southern Izu
Peninsula. This view is consistent with the interpretationof Fujiwara (2013) of the magnitude of paleo-tsunamis
in the Rokken-gawa lowland.
The occurrence of the Rokken-gawa–Oya tsunami
deposit on the Oya lowland may be explained in two
ways. First, the paleo-coastline was located on the site ofa present-day landside. According to Kitamura et al.
(2013b), the paleo-coastline may be located at Site 7,
which is 300 m from the present-day shoreline. Second,an increase in tsunami wave height was caused byPage 18 of 20

submarine landslides associated with earthquake shaking, as occurred in the 1929 Grand Banks (Fine et al.
2005) and 2009 Suruga Bay (Baba et al. 2012) events.
A magnitude 6.4 earthquake took place in Suruga Bay
off the Yaizu plain in 2009 (Aoi et al. 2010). Baba etal. (2012) reported that this earthquake caused a submarine mass movement in the foreset slope, asinferred from the discovery of an escarpment (450 m
wide and 10–15 m deep) located ~5 km off the coast.
In addition, Baba et al. (2012) documented anincrease in tsunami wave height caused by a submarine landslide, on the basis of a numerical simulation.
The foreset slope of the fan delta of the Abe River
off the Shizuoka plain (Nemoto et al. 1988) has ahigh potential for submarine landslides.

Conclusions
In summary, there is no geologic evidence of a Level 2
tsunami having occurred in the coastal area of Shizuoka
Prefecture during the past 4000 years.
Competing interests
The author declares that he has no competing interests.
Authors’ contributions
AK conceived, designed, and carried out the study and wrote themanuscript.
Authors’ information
AK is a professor in the Institute of Geosciences and the Center for
Integrated Research and Education of Natural Hazards, Shizuoka University.
He is an expert in paleontology, sedimentology, and Quaternary geology.
Acknowledgements
I am grateful to two anonymous reviewers, whose comments andsuggestions improved the original manuscript. I also thank Stallard Scientific
Editing (http://www.stallardediting.com) for improving the English in the
manuscript. This study was funded by a Grant-in-Aid (26287126) awarded by
the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.
Received: 30 December 2015 Accepted: 25 April 2016

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