Costs and Benefits of Emissions Mitigationand the Value of Technology for
Stabilizing Climate Change
Nebojša Nakićenović
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis xx
Technische Universität Wien xx
naki@iiasa.ac.atIIASA-RITE International Symposium “Global warming and sustainable
development“, Keidanren-Kaikan, Tokyo – 18 March 2008

Global Energy Challenges
z Sustainable access to energy and food(a prerequisite for reaching MDGs)z Energy and ecosystems services
z Security and reliability of systemsz Deep CO2 and GHG reductionsz Investment in R&D and deploymentz Policy frameworks and life-stylesNakicenovic

#2

2008

Add as many mail coaches as you please,
you will never get a railroad by so doing
Joseph A. Schumpeter• New energy systems will not emerge bysimply adding new and emerging
technologies to the current ones.
• A new paradigm is needed withconvergence of innovative technologies,
institutional structures, policy frameworks
and human behavior.
Nakicenovic

#3

2008

Global Population Transitions
1010
Industrial

109

p1700 A.D.

Agricultural

108

107
Tool Making
5000 B.C.
Source: R. Kates (1997) after E. Deevey (1960)

106

106

105

104

103

102

101100Years Before Present

Nakicenovic

Source: Kates & Deevey

#4

2008

Energy Services and Sources
Through Time
LetterHorse

Hay

Sunlight

Agriculture

1770s
Telegraph

Electricity

Steam
Locomotive

Coal

Coal mine

Coal fields

1870sInterntet,
MobilePhone

Electricity

ICE
Automobile

Gasoline

Oil refinery

Crude oil1970s
Electricity

Convergence

Energy, Mobility
Information

SMR,
decarbonization

HydrogenNatural gas /fossils
Biomass
Sunlight

2070s
Electrolysis

Wind
Uranium

Source:David Sanborn Scott, 2004
Nakicenovic

#5

2007

Warmest 12 years:

1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
Global Mean Temperatures
are Rising
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000Period

Rate

50 0.128±0.026
100 0.074±0.018

Years °/decade

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

Observed Climate Change
100-yr warming trend(1906-2005) of 0.74oC.
Increased since TAR.

Warming of theSea level rise:
climate system
1960is– 2003: 1.8 mm per yr
1993 – 2003: 3.1 mm per yr
unequivocal
Decreasing:snow and ice extent
Arctic sea ice extent
Mountain glaciers
IPCC

Urbanization
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1800

Nakicenovic

1850

1900

1950

2000

Source: Grübler, 2007

2050

#8210021502008

Education
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
1800

Nakicenovic

1850

1900

1950

2000

Source: Lutz, 2007

2050

#921002150

2008

Democratization
100%
90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
1800

Nakicenovic

1850

1900

1950

2000

Source: Modelski, 2002

2050

#10

2100

2150

2008

Food for a Week, Darfur Refugees, Chad
© 2007 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

Nakicenovic

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2008

Food for a Week, Germany© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

Nakicenovic

#12

2008

The Natomo Family
6:30am March 27, 1993 Kouakourou, Mali

Nakicenovic#13© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

2007

Night Lights

2000

Nakicenovic

Source: After SRES, 2000

#14

2008

Night Lights
IIASA A2r Scenario
SRES A22070

Nakicenovic

Source: After SRES, 2000

#15

2008

Δ Temperature

2070

Nakicenovic

Source: TAR-WGI, 2001

#16

2008

sGlobal Mean Temperature Change
Six illustrative SRES scenarios, full range

Baseline Uncertainty:
50% climate sensitivity
25% population & GDP
25% technology
Uncertainty on extent andsuccess of climate policies

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC)

Global Primary Energy – A2r2000180016001400
EJ

1200

Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

1000
800
600
40020002000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Nakicenovic#182008

Global Primary Energy – B1
2000
1800
1600
1400
EJ

1200

Renewables
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

1000
800
600
40020002000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Nakicenovic#192008

Surface Temperature Change

AOGCM projections for illustrative SRES scenarios

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

Long-Term Stabilization Profiles
A2

B1~$100/tCO2
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

Long-Term Stabilization Profiles~$100/tCO2
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

Long-Term Stabilization Profiles<$25/tCO2~$100/tCO2
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

The lower the stabilisation level the earlier
global emissions have to go down

peak
in10yrs

peak
in25yrs

INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)

Technology Learning
Specific investment costs ($/kW)

Costs and Benefits

Learning
costs

Level of present competitiveness
Futurelearning
benefits
Learning
benefits

Cumulative investments $Cumulative MW experienceTimeNakicenovic#252008

Japan - PV Costs vs. Expenditures
100,000
100,000

Costreduction~ $100 109

PV costs (1985) Yen per W
PV costs (1985) Yen per W

1973: 30,000
1973: 30,000
1976:
1976:16,300
16,30010,00010,0001980:
1980: 4,900
4,900–0.54x
y = 10 4.0 –0.54x
R 2 = 0.989
1985: 1,200

1,000
1,000

1995:
1995: 640
640

BasicR&D
R&D
Basic

Applied R&D
R&D
AppliedInvestment
Investment

Data source:Watanabe, 1995 &1997

100 Data Source: Watanabe, 1997
100 00.1
11010000.1110100
Cumulative expenditures, billion (1985) YenCumulative expenditures, billion (1985) Yen

Nakicenovic

Grübler, 2002#26

~ $1 109
1,0001,000

2008Technology Learning in SRES
Investment Costs per kW
in US$90

10,0001,000

1001101001,000

10,000100,000

Cumulative Installed Capacity [GW]
Nakicenovic

Source: Riahi

#27

2008

Total Energy-related Investments(World, short & long-term)
200

Long-term
Investment
Savings(~40 trillion)

175

Trillion US$2000

150
125
100
75

“Upfront” Investments(~2 trillion)

50
250A2

Nakicenovic

B12000-2030

A2B12000-2100
#28

2007

2500

700

650
Emissions6002000Costs

550
1500

A2r

B1

1000

500
1600

500

450

1400

1200

1000

800

CO2-equivalent concentration in 2100, ppmv

600

Cumulative System Costs (trillion$)

Cumulative Emissions (GtCeq.)

3000

Emissions and Costs
2000-2100

400
400

29

190

8170

7150

6

Total R&D (left axis)
Source: Doornbosch, 2006

2004

92002

210

2000

10

1998

230

1996

111994250

1992

121990270

1988

in billion $Development public R&D
expenditure (in OECD)

Energy R&D (right axis)
30

Development private R&D
expenditure (in OECD)

In million $7500
5500
3500

Oil and nuclearSource: Doornbosch, 2006

Utilities

032002

2001

2000

2099

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

19

1988

1500

Total energy
31

Global Mitigation Challenges• Significant mitigation potential by 2030 andbeyond at costs <$100/tCO2• Technological change essential for reducing
mitigation costs and increasing potentials• “Upfront” investments reduce longer-term
mitigation costs and increase potentials• Investment in RD&D and diffusion reduce
mitigation costs
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHNGE (IPCC)www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org
Towards a more Sustainable Future• The magnitude of the change required ishuge• The challenge is to find a way forwardthat addresses all the issues
simultaneously• A paradigm shift is needed: energy enduse efficiency, new renewables,
advanced nuclear and carbon captureand storage.
Nakicenovic

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2008

Confronting the Challenges of Energy for
Sustainable Development:
The Role of Scientific and Technical Analysis

IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
and its international partners present

www.GlobalEnergyAssessment.org