Current IPCC Activities andPerspectives in AR6 Products

Priyadarshi Shukla and Jim Skea
IPCC WG III Co-chairs

IPCC Symposium – TokyoJanuary 26, 2017

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IPCC WGIII Co-chairs

2The IPCC WG III Bureau

3The IPCC WGIII TSU teamSingle Technical Support Unit (TSU) across two countries

4CLIMATE CHANGE 2014

Main Findings from AR5:
Brief Summary
Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment Report© dreamstime

Mitigation of Climate ChangeStabilization of atmospheric concentrations requires moving awayfrom the baseline – regardless of the mitigation goal~3°C

Based on Figure 6.7

Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment Report

AR5 WGIII SPM

Limiting Temperature Increase to 2˚CMeasures exist to achieve the substantial emissions
reductions required to limit likely warming to 2°C

A combination of adaptation and substantial, sustained reductions ingreenhouse gas emissions can limit climate change risks

Implementing reductions in greenhouse gas emissions poses
substantial technological, economic, social, and institutional
challenges

But delaying mitigation will substantially increase thechallenges associated with limiting warming to 2°CAR5 WGI SPM, AR5 WGII SPM,AR5 WGIII SPM

Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportMitigation Measures
More efficient use of energy
Greater use of low-carbon and no-carbon energy• Many of these technologies exist today

Improved carbon sinks• Reduced deforestation and improved forest management
and planting of new forests• Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage

Lifestyle and behavioural changes
AR5 WGIII SPM

Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportEmission patterns would need to change throughout
the economy

Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportGlobal costs rise with the ambition of the mitigation goal.

10Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportSubstantial reductions in emissions would require largechanges in investment patterns.

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Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment ReportClimate change mitigation can bring co-benefits –health, energy security and other societal goals.

Based on Figures SPM.6 and 12.23
12Working Group III contribution to theIPCC Fifth Assessment Report

The window for action is rapidly closing
65% of our carbon budget compatible with a 2°C goal already used
AmountRemaining:

275

Total Carbon
Budget:

790
GtC

GtC

Amount Used
1870-2011:

515
GtC

AR5 WGI SPM

Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

IPCC WGIII: Mitigation of Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014

AR6 Cycle Products and Activities
and Planned Schedule
Working Group III contribution to the
IPCC Fifth Assessment Report© dreamstime

Mitigation of Climate Change

IPCC AR6 cycle: Products and Activities
Special Reports
1. Special Report on global warming of 1.5 °C (SR1.5)
2. SR2
3. SROCC: Special Report on climate change and oceans and the cryosphere(SROCC)

Assessment Reports
1.
2.
3.
4.

WGI (The Physical Science Basis)
WGII (Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability)
WGIII (Mitigation of Climate Change)
Synthesis Report

Activities (Expert Meetings/Co-sponsored Conferences)
1. Expert Meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability and Climate Scenarios
2. Expert Meetings (Co-sponsored Conference) on Climate Change and Cities

Links to the Paris Agreement – Article 2This Agreement…. aims to strengthen the global response to thethreat of climate change ...by:a)Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well
below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts tolimit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial
levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks
and impacts of climate change;…..
c)

Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low
greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development

Taking stock of the NDCs
• Facilitative dialogue in 2018
• Global stocktake every 5 years from 2023
onwards – are we on track for the longterm aims?
• A role for IPCC - but what that is not yetclear

Title: Global warming of 1.5°C
An IPCC special report on the impacts of global
warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels andrelated global greenhouse gas emission pathways,
in the context of strengthening the global responseto the threat of climate change, sustainable
development and efforts to eradicate poverty

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List of Contents
Front Matter (2 pages)
Summary for Policy Makers (up to 10 pages incl. headline statements,tables, figures)
Chapter 1: Framing and context (15 pages)
Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context ofsustainable development (40 pages)
Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5 °C global warming on natural and humansystems (60 pages)
Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to thethreat of climate change (50 pages)
Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing
inequalities (20 pages)
Boxes - integrated case studies/regional and cross-cutting themes (upto 20 pages)
FAQs (10 pages)
Total: up to 225
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Front Matter• IPCC context– Building on AR5– Assessing literature since AR5– Reports to come in this cycle• Context of UNFCCC invitation• Specificity of this report within the cycle (integration, systemsand solutions-based approach, near-term)• Laying the foundations for the Special Report in the context ofstrengthening the global response to climate change,sustainable development and poverty eradication

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Chapter 1: Framing and Context• Understanding 1.5°C; reference levels, probability, transience,overshoot, stabilization• 1.5°C in the context of strengthening the global response to thethreat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts toeradicate poverty, with consideration for ethics and equity• Key concepts central to understanding the report• Building on AR5: new information, integrative approaches, responseoptions• Assessment and methodologies across spatial and time scales• Treatment of uncertainty• Storyline of the report21Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with
1.5°C in the context of sustainable development•

Methods of assessment and assumptions in the literature•

Constraints on, and uncertainties in, global greenhouse gas emissions
consistent with warming of 1.5°C compared to 2°C, considering short lived
and other climate drivers and taking into account uncertainty in climatesensitivity•Characteristics of mitigation and development pathways compatible with
1.5°C compared with 2°C and, where warranted by the literature,comparison with higher levels of warming. This may, include short and longterm timeframes, sectorial, regional, demand/supply-side, technological andsocio-economic implications•

Technological, environmental, institutional and socio-economic opportunities
and challenges related to 1.5°C pathways
22Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on
natural and human systems•

Methods of assessment•

Observed and attributable global and regional climate changes and impacts
and the adaptation experience•

Key global and regional climate changes, vulnerabilities, impacts, and risks
at 1.5°C, taking into account adaptation potential and limits to adaptivecapacity•

Key sectoral vulnerabilities, impacts, and risks at 1.5°C, taking into accountadaptation potential, limits to adaptive capacity and socioeconomic aspects•

Avoided impacts and reduced risks at 1.5°C compared with 2°C and, wherewarranted by the literature, comparison with higher levels of warming•

Timeframe, slow vs. fast onset, irreversibility and tipping points•

Implications for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of different mitigation
pathways reaching 1.5°C, including potential overshoot23

Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing theglobal response to the threat of climate change
•

•
•

•

•

•

Assessing current and emerging adaptation and mitigation options,
including negative emission methodologies, and associated opportunities
and challenges
Synergies, trade-offs and integration of adaptation and mitigation options
The pace of the development and deployment of adaptation and mitigation
options compared to pathways consistent with sustainable development
and 1.5°C
The potential and capacity limitations for development and deployment ofadaptation and mitigation responses to accelerate transitions within andacross scales and systems (e.g. food production, cities)
Options for implementing far-reaching and rapid change; implications,challenges (e.g. lock in, spillover effects), enabling environments andacross scales
Case studies for implementation of adaptation and mitigation options atdifferent scales and circumstances, and lessons learned
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Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty
eradication, and reducing inequalities••••

Linkages between achieving SDGs and 1.5°C
Distributional impacts arising from response options
Opportunities, challenges, risks, and trade-offs
Positive and negative impacts of adaptation and mitigation
measures including response measures and strategies,
economic diversification, livelihoods, food security, cities,ecosystems, technologies• Knowledge and experience from local to global, including casestudies and integrated planning as relevant to aforementionedbullets• Climate-resilient development pathways
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UNEP Emissions Gap Report: 2oC & 1.5o C Pathways

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NDCs: Gap between aspirations and offers

12Source: UNFCCC

CO2 Emissions Budget for Staying Below 2oC

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CO2 Emissions Budget for Staying Below 1.5oC

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SR2Special Report on climate change,
desertification,
land degradation,
sustainable land management,
food security andgreenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems(currently “SR2” for short)30

Stakeholder consultations for SR2• Questionnaire to governments and IPCC observerorganisations• In-depth consultation meetings with:– UNCCD (UN Convention to Combat Desertification)– FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization)– IPBES (Intergovernmental Platform on Bio-diversity andEcosystem Services)31

SR2 Timeline
Scoping meeting: Dublin,13-16 February 2017
Plenary approval of outline: 27-30 March 2017
Call for author nominations: 10 April – 21 May 2017
Selection of authors: 7 July 2017
LAM 1: 9-13 October 2017
LAM 2: 26-30 March 2018
LAM 3: 3-7 July 2018
LAM 4: 11-15 February 2019
Approval session: 2-6 September 201932

Expert meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability andClimate Stabilization ScenariosThe needs:• Assessing linkages between high-level climate stabilization goalsand scenarios on the one hand and the practical steps needed in
the short-and medium term to make the realization of these goals
possible• anchoring climate responses firmly in the context of development
needs.
• articulating practical steps in ways that are meaningful tostakeholders, in government, business and civil society, as they
formulate their responses to climate change.
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For more information on Expert Workshop on Mitigation, Sustainability and Climate Scenarios see link:
http://ipcc.ch/apps/eventmanager/documents/40/200920160712-Doc.7-EM_Mitigation.pdf

Expert meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability andClimate Stabilization Scenarios
The goals:• To develop dialogue between different research communities thatcan be advanced later through cross-cutting groups linking different
chapters of the AR6 reports.
• To identify Indicators to underpin dialogue between scenariobuilders and others.
• To inform scenarios and models and their input assumptions
through insights derived from sectoral or regional perspectives.
• Identify the implications of top-down stabilization scenarios for thepace of change in specific sectors• To stimulate interdisciplinary research activity that will lead to newliterature that can be assessed during the AR6 cycle.
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AR6 WGIII Schedule
SR1.5

SR2

WG-III AR6Call for scoping
nominations

April 2016

September 2016

October 2016

Scoping meeting

August 2016

February 2017

May 2017

Plenary approval ofoutline

October 2016

April 2017

September 2017

LAM1

March 2017

November 2017

May 2019

LAM4

April 2018

February 2019

October 2020

September 2018

September 2019

July 2021

Plenary Approval

Expert meeting on Mitigation, Sustainability and Climate Stabilization Scenarios scheduled for end of April 2017
Conference on Climate Change and Cities is schedules for first quarter of 2018
Overall updated IPCC AR6 Cycle Schedule available at link: http://ipcc.ch/activities/pdf/ar6_schedule.pdf

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Looking Ahead: AR6 Perspective and Vision
1. High-level aims for WG III in AR6
2. WG III challenges identified by the Co-chairs
3. Possible elements of the WGIII AR6
4. Mitigation Risks of 1.5OC versus 2OC? The Pending Agenda ofdecarbonization
5. Reframing the Assessment36

1. High-level aims for WG III in AR6• achieving a better synthesis between higher-level “whole system”
perspectives derived from, for example, global integrated
assessment models (IAMs) and grounded, bottom-up insights into
technologies and other approaches for reducing emissions.
• making greater use of social science disciplines, in addition toeconomics, especially for gaining insights into issues related tolifestyle, behaviour and consumption.
• linking climate change mitigation better to other agreed policy
goals nationally and internationally.
+ contributing to the IPCC Chair’s “solutions focused” approach37

2. WG III challenges identified by the Co-chairs• Moderating textbook/undergraduate 101 style chapters• Adding to Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) in developing overallmessaging• Including regional/national/sectoral modelling approaches as well as IAM• Co-benefits, risks and links to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)• A place for consumption/behaviour & governance/institutions – needs
enhanced social science engagement• Highlighting literature directly relevant to the Paris Agreement – technology
innovation and transfer; finance• Greenhouse gas removal “methodologies” and geo-engineering• A better link between high-level top-down modelling and bottom-up38

perspectives on mitigation options

3. Possible elements of the WGIII AR6••••

Context– Sustainable development goals
Sectoral chapters – map on to NDCs and inventory categories greater attention to land-based solutions?
Emerging solutions and innovation
Whole systems approaches– Understanding trends and drivers– Looking forwards• IAMs globally and cross-sectoral• National, sectoral modelling and scenarios•

Cross-cutting chapters– Behaviour and consumption– Policies, institutions and governance• What UNFCCC parties do within their own sovereignty• What UNFCCC parties do acting jointly

39– Finance and technology

4. Mitigation Risks of 1.5OC versus 2OC: The Pending
Agenda of decarbonization• How much higher are mitigation costs?
• Impacts on sustainable development including poverty eradication• Technology needs, including negative emissions, and risks not tomeet them• Impacts on food security and biodiversity, e.g. by LU change
required by BECCS• Impacts on carbon cycle by more ambitious mitigation (e.g. forests)• Overshoot risks (temperature, atmos. GHG conc.), irreversibility
405. Reframing the Assessment
1) Timing: Closing window of opportunity• Innovation cycle• Behavior and institutions
2) Cost-benefit Framing: Looking through ethical lens
• Irreversibility• Uncertainty• Equity (Inter and intra generational)
3) Reframing?
• Bottom-up country driven assessments• Prevent creating new lock-ins• Prepare for disruptive technological change• Implementation Focus (Technology cooperation)
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IPCC WGIII: www.mitigation2014.org

WG III links

Thank you

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