Ex-ante Evaluation Paper (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department, JICA
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: India
Project: Mumbai Metro Line 3 Project (II)Loan Agreement: March 29, 2018
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Urban Transport Sector in India
Rapid urbanization has progressed in India in recent years, and while the number ofregistered automobiles and motorcycles has increased dramatically, there has been little
progress in terms of improving the public transportation infrastructure. In major cities like Delhi
and Mumbai, traffic congestion from ever-growing traffic demand has become a serious
problem, especially the economic losses and health problems caused by air and noise
pollution from vehicles have become a grave issue. For this reason, it has become necessary
to establish a public transportation system to alleviate traffic congestion and improve theurban environment.
As a response to the above-mentioned issues, the government of India has been
implementing measures to cope with the recent surge in transportation demand brought about
by economic growth, and has attached strong importance to improving the publictransportation system from the viewpoint of safety, energy efficiency, and preserving the socialenvironment.
The Mumbai metropolitan area, one of the India's largest metropolitan areas, reached apopulation of 20.7 million people in 2016. The population density of Mumbai city at the centerof the area is 20,482 people/km², making it one of the most densely populated cities in theworld. The number of registered automobiles in all of India has risen dramatically from 1.03
million in 2000 to 3.06 million in 2011. As a result, the average vehicle speed on major city
roadways is just 15 km/h, and traffic congestion has become a severe problem. Besides,
expanding the existing road network is also difficult due to lack of land available forconstruction.
To resolve these urgent issues, the government of Maharashtra has developed an urban
transportation plan for introducing a mass rapid transportation system, which was aimed atalleviating congestion in the existing public transportation system, improving traffic conditions,and reducing air pollution. The Mumbai Metro Master Plan was formulated in January 2004,
including an Urban Railway development plan that divided the city into 9 routes with a total
distance of 146.5 km. As a part of this plan the Mumbai Metro Line 3 Project (hereinafter, “theProject"), which connects the southern tip of Mumbai to the Mumbai International Airport
through the city center and extends to the northern suburbs of the city, was regarded as aproject to be implemented as soon as possible to resolve the problems discussed above, andpositioned as vital to promoting economic growth of the Mumbai metropolitan area.
(2) Japan and JICA's Urban Transport Sector Policy and the Positioning of this ProjectJapan's Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) indicates "strengthening
connectivity" as a priority issue, including improvement to transportation infrastructure. It
also states that with a view to de-bottlenecking the infrastructure based constraints toinvestment and growth, improving rail systems (including high-speed and urban railways) isvital to strengthening connectivity within major industrial cities as well as connectivity
between various economic zones and regions in India.
In addition, the JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2012) concluded the need tosupport infrastructure with the development of trunk-line railways, urban railways, roads, andharbors―which promote regional economic development, improve goods distribution
efficiency, and encourage increased foreign investment―with a focus on industrial clusters
such as the Special Economic Zones and Economic Corridors of India's 6 major urban
centers and the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor. Therefore, the Project is consistent withthese policies and plans.
As of end of January 2018, there have been 56 ODA Loans to India totaling 1,972.4 billion
yen for use in the overall transportation sector. Out of these, urban railway transportation
sector, including the Delhi Metro and other metro projects, comprised 35 ODA loans totalingof 1,541.6 billion yen (also at the end of January 2018). It should be noted that the loan for
the first phase of the Project has already been provided (L/A signed in 2013 with an amountof 71 billion yen).
(3) Other Donors' Activity
World Bank has been supporting development of the Mumbai Urban Transport Project(developing roads and suburban railways) as well as a freight railway construction plan toupgrade the east corridor. As of the end of January 2018, it has approved 80 loans totaling$17.774 billion.
Meanwhile, Asian Development Bank has provided 60 loans totaling $13.606 billion as ofthe end of January 2018, $176 million for the Jaipur Metro.
Agence Française de Développement has approved 180 million euro for the Kochi Metroin February 2014 as well as 310 million euro for the Bengaluru Metro in January 2016.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to cope with the increase of traffic demand in Mumbai byexpanding the mass rapid transportation system, thereby promoting regional economic

development and improving urban environment, through mitigation of traffic jams anddecrease of pollution caused by increasing motor vehicles.
(2) Project Site/Target Area
Mumbai metropolitan area, Maharashtra state(3) Project Components
1) Civil and construction work (all lines are underground: Approx. 33.7 km, 26 stations)2) Procurement of depot maintenance equipment
3) Track work (rail laying and related work over 33.7 km)
4) Electrical and mechanical work (outfitting of overhead lines, substations, etc.)
5) Signaling and telecommunication work (outfitting of signaling and communicationsystems)
6) Procurement of an automated fare collection system
7) Installation of tunnel ventilation system
8) Installation of automatic lifting equipment
9) Procurement of rolling stocks (248 railcars, comprising 8 railcars per line x 31 lines)10) Other (construction of depot, procurement of passenger station securityequipment)11) Consulting services (bidding assistance, construction supervision, etc.)
ODA loan will cover all the above except for item 'x'. (As for rolling stocks, ODA loancovers procurement of 210 rail cars)(4) Estimated Project Cost
621.374 billion yen (of which, the ODA Loan amount is 314.367 billion yen)(5) Schedule
Scheduled from June 2013 to December 2021 (103 months total). The project completionis defined as the commencement of the service (December 2021).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing agency: Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation Limited (MMRCL)
4) Operation and Maintenance Agency: O&M after project completion is to be carried out
directly by MMRCL.
(7) Collaboration with Other Schemes and Donors
1) Related aid activities by Japan: None in particular.
2) Aid activities of other aid organizations: World Bank is developing roads and suburban
railways in the Mumbai Urban Transportation Project.
(8) Environmental and Social Considerations/Poverty Reduction and Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Considerations① Category: A

② Categorization Rationale: The Project deemed Category A due to its high potential toexert negative impact on the environment as defined by the 'JICA Guidelines forEnvironmental and Social Considerations' (promulgated in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit: Although not required under Indian law, an Environmental
Impact Assessment (EIA) report for the Project was created in September 2012.
Implementing the Project requires tree cutting permission, forest clearance, andcoastal regulation zone clearance, all of which are expected to be approved by April
2018.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures: During construction, measures will be taken to adequately
manage pollutants, construction vehicles, heavy machinery, etc. No significant
negative impact on the ground from subsidence is expected during construction due
to adopting a shielded construction method that prevents soil loosening andgroundwater inflow. Measures to address noise, vibration, air contamination after therailway goes into service include the following: a sound barrier will be constructed tomitigate noise; a layer of pliable rubber will be installed under the track to mitigate
vibration; and a wastewater treatment facility will be installed at the railyard to prevent
water contamination.
Also, in light of concerns over noise/air pollution, disposal of construction waste soil,
and limits on overnight work, which were raised in discussions with residents during
the Project EIA Report, the executing agency has committed to implementing andmonitoring measures to address each area of concern. No particular opposition to theproject implementation has been found through consultation with residents affectedby the Project.
⑤ Natural Environment: The negative impact on the environment from the Project isexpected to be minimum as the target area is not situated in or around any vulnerable
areas such as national parks. Note that some residents objected against tree logging
for the planned Cuffe Parade Station in Colaba district, and filed a lawsuit at Mumbai
High Court on February 9, 2017, calling for a project injunction. However, theobjection was rejected by the Supreme Court on May 18, 2017. During the lawsuit,
MMRCL suspended tree clearing in the litigation area while continuing to clear trees
in districts where permits were granted, and resumed tree clearing in the litigation
area once the objection was rejected.
⑥ Social Environment: Land acquisition area of the Project is about 76.9 ha (of which,2.52 ha is private land), and estimated that 2,802 households will be affected (6,941people), out of which 2,744 households (6,867 people) will be relocated. MMRCL
held consultations with residents affected by land acquisition/resettlement andplanned to complete the land acquisition/resettlement process by January 2018,
following the Resettlement Action Plan prepared to meet the requirements of JICA

Guidelines (based on the New Land Acquisition Act and the Maharashtra state
government's resident resettlement policy, etc.). Illegally settled residents areprovided with the ownership rights and resettlement expenses to a parcel of public
housing provided near Mumbai.
⑦ Other/Monitoring: During construction in the Project, MMRCL is responsible formonitoring land acquisition and resettlement. Construction contractors, under thesupervision of MMRCL, are responsible for monitoring noise, vibration, soil, air quality,water quality, waste, etc. Once in service, MMRCL will monitor noise, vibration, airquality, water quality, etc. MMRCL shall also use its own capital to employ an external
consultant to monitor land acquisition, resettlement, and living conditions afterresettlement.
2) Cross-cutting Items: Many workers engaged in the Project live alone and areconsidered to be at high risk of HIV infection. Therefore, using measures taken in theDelhi Metro project as a point of reference, MMRCL is coordinating with NGOs in theProject to carry out HIV/AIDS prevention activities with their own funds as a socialcontribution activity. At the same time, they are requesting contractors to cooperate with
HIV/AIDS measures for workers, including by incorporating HIV/AIDS prevention
clauses into tender documents.In accordance with domestic law, stations and railcars
make allowances for use by elderly and disabled persons (i.e. accessible elevators,restrooms, station announcements, textured paving blocks to guide the blind,wheelchair spaces, etc.). There are also plans to provide customer care training to frontline staff including station staff and railway crew.
3) Gender Classification: GI (S) Gender Integrated Project<Activities/Classification Rationale> In order to ensure that women can enjoy the use of
the subway in safety and comfort, the Project includes a number of efforts that include
priority seating, installation of CCTV cameras in the station and railcars, andlow-hanging handgrip straps. For these reasons, the Project is classified as a "gender
integrated project."(9) Other Important Issues
None in particular
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1)Outcomes (Operational and Effect Indicators)
Indicator

Baseline(Actual value inTarget (2023)[2 Years after Completion]

2014)
Operating rate (%)－87Running distance (1000 km)－73

Number of running trains per day－

676

Volume of transportation per day(million man・km)－

Income from Passenger per day(million rupees)－

13.8
24.22) Impacts
Decrease of road vehicle volume (vehicles/year)(2) Qualitative Effects
Improvement of traffic conditions in the Mumbai metropolitan area; alleviation of traffic
congestion; production of pollution; mitigation of climate change; improved convenience byestablishing reliable travel time; and economic development of the Mumbai metropolitanarea.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the assumptions below, the Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) of theProject is 10.1% and the Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) is 2.7%.
[EIRR]
Cost: Project cost (excluding taxes), operation and maintenance cost
Benefits: Reduced operation and maintenance costs for transit means and roadways(including reduced traffic congestion and bus transportation); shorter travel time forusers of main routes and other means of transportation; reduced occurrence of traffic
accidents and pollution (including reduced production of greenhouse gases).
Project life: 30 years[FIRR]
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance cost
Benefits: Passenger revenue, advertisement revenue, real estate development revenue
Project life: 30 years
5. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions: None in particular(2) External Factors: None in particular
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects and Applications to the Project
The following lessons were learned from ex-post evaluation results etc. of the 'Delhi Mass
Rapid Transport System Project' in India.
Firstly, it is preferable that public transportation bodies to cooperate with each other andestablish a systematic urban transport system to achieve efficient operation of the public
transport as a whole.

Secondly, to ensure that proper operation and maintenance is carried out, it is important toestablish an implementation system that is financially independent from the project.
In the Project, coordination of connections between the bus lines operated by
Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport and Mumbai Metro monorail lines (Lines No.1& 2) operated by MMRDA is being considered. MMRCL is also planning a commercial andreal estate development related project and making efforts to strengthen its financialposition.
7. Evaluation Results
JICA has been providing support for the greater metropolitan area metro project, and as
the Project contributes to promoting equally distributed economic growth by alleviating traffic
congestion and reducing traffic pollution in the Mumbai metropolitan area, it is judged to beconsistent with Japan and JICA's policy on assistance. Moreover, given that the project isdeemed to contribute to Goal 9 of the Sustainable Development Goals, the need for JICA tosupport the implementation of the Project is judged to be high.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As indicated in sections 4. (1) - (3)(2) Timing of the Next Evaluation
Ex-post evaluation: Two years after project completion