Energy Implications of Stabilizing
Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
Jae Edmonds
Joint Global Change Research InstituteMarch 12, 2007

PNNL-SA-51961

1

Acknowledgements• Thanks to RITE and to IIASA for
the opportunity to participate.

• Thanks to the sponsors of the
Global Energy Technology
Strategy Program (GTSP) for
research support.

• Particularly, the U.S. Departmentof Energy’s Office of Science.

Sponsors – Phases I & II
2

Global Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions Gigatons per Year

Climate change is a long-term strategic
problem with implications for today
20Historical Emissions
GTSP_750
GTSP_650
GTSP_550GTSP_450
GTSP Reference Case

1510Fossil Fuel Carbon
Emissions
Historic & 2005 to 2100
1750-2005

300 GtCGTSP Ref 1430 GtC
750 ppm 1200 GtC
650 ppm 1040 GtC

5550 ppm 862 GtC
450 ppm 480 GtC

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2200

2250

2300

• Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations is the goal of theFramework Convention on Climate Change.

• Stabilizing CO2 concentrations at any level means that global, CO2
emissions must peak and then decline forever.

3A global commitment to stabilizing CO2
concentrations requires a carbon price thatescalates over time
• Price of carbon
Global Value of Carbon
800
700$/tonne (2000$)

600

should start low andrise steadily tominimize society’scosts.

450 ppm stabilization
550 ppm stabilization
650 ppm stabilization
750 ppm stabilization• Eventually all nations
and economic sectors
need to be coveredas the atmosphere isindifferent as to thesource of CO2emissions.

500
400
300
200

• The response to this$102/tC

100$19/tC$10/tC
$4/tC

0
2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

escalating price ofcarbon will varyacross economic
sectors and regions.
4Stabilization of CO2 concentrations means
fundamental change to the global energy system
Stabilization of CO2 at 550 ppm

History and Reference Case
1600

1600

History

FutureFuture1400.

1400
Global Primary Energy 1850-2100 (Exajoules)

Global Primary Energy 1850-2100 (Exajoules)

History

1200
1000
800
600
40020001850
Preindustrial
280ppm

1200

1000

800

600

40020001900

1950

2000

2050

2100

1850
Preindustrial
280ppmOilNatural Gas
Coal
Biomass Energy
Non-Biomass Renewable Energy

1900

1950

2000

Oil + CCS
Natural Gas + CCS
Coal + CCS
Nuclear Energy
End-use Energy

2050

2100

5

The response to this escalating price ofcarbon will vary across economic sectors
and regions.
Stabilization changes the sources of fossil CO2 emissions. Utility
emissions drop to virtually zero. Transportation emissions dominate.

25

Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
Reference Case

25

1515
GtC/yr20

GtC/yr20

Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
550 ppm Stabilization

101055002005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

Buildings
Electricity
Natural Gas
Transportation

Buildings
Electricity
Natural Gas
Transportation

Industry
Hydrogen
Liquids Production

Industry
Hydrogen
Liquids Production

6CO2 Capture and Storage

7

Projection of CO2 Storage Demand
Global 2000-2100
3,000• For stabilization
scenarios from 450750ppmv, mostintegrated assessment
models show a demand
for no more than 600 GtC(2,220 GtCO2) storage
over the course of thiscentury.
potential storage capacity
place the potential global
geologic CO2 storage
capacity at approximately
3,000 GtC (11,000GtCO2).

2,500

2,000PgC• Published estimates ofUnminable Coal
Depleted Oil Reservoirs
Depleted Gas Reservoirs
Deep Saline Reservoirs Off Shore
Deep Saline Reservoirs On Shore

1,500

1,000500• A broad portfolio ofcarbon management
technologies will beneeded to fulfill the
UNFCCC stabilization
goal.

0MaximumPotentialStorage

A1g 450ppm

A1g 550ppm

A1g 650ppm

A1g 750 GTSP 450 GTSP 550 GTSP 650 GTSP 750ppm

8Potential geologic storage reservoirs
are distributed heterogeneously
Ratio of Cumulative Emissions 1990 to 2095 to Maximum
Potential Geologic Storage Capacity by Region
Latin America
AfricaMiddle East
Southeast Asia
India
China
Korea
Japan
Australia_NZ
Former Soviet Union
Eastern Europe
Western EuropeCanadaUSA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90% 100%9Japan: Is There Enough
CO2 Storage Capacity?

Composition of Power Generationin Japan, 2095
NGCC

NGCC withCCS
Oil

Regionally limited CCS
available, 550ppm
NGCC withOil with
CCS

CCS

NuclearCoalOilOil with
CCS

NGCC

Coal

Coal with
CCS

Coal withCCS
PVPV
Nuclear

Hydro

Biomass

WindWindRegionally unlimited CCS
assumed available, 550 ppm

Biomass
Hydro

10Japan CO2 Storage Capacity*• Japan total onshore CO2 storage capacity = 19.5 billion
tonnes (Gt CO2) (5.3 PgC).

• Japan total offshore capacity = 72 Gt CO2 (20 PgC).
TargetOnshore Oil and Gas
Onshore Deep Saline Anticlines
Onshore Deep Saline Monoclines
Offshore Deep Saline Monoclines

CO2 Storage Capacity* (Gt CO2)

21.5
1672

In 2003 - total annual Japanese CO2 emissions were 1.2 Gt – 14% from Natural Gas (US-EIAestimate).
*Tanaka, S, Koide, H., and Sasagawa, A. 1995. Possibility of underground CO2 storage in Japan.
Energy Convers. Mgmt., 36(6-9): 527-530. [Note: the estimates in this report are unconfirmed]
11Even if potential storage is limited, there issubstantial economic value in deploying CCS

Trillions of 1990 US $ Discounted to 2005

$6.0

$5.0

$4.0
450 ppm$3.0

550 ppm
650 ppm

$2.0

$1.0

$0.0
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%
12

Nuclear energy

13Climate policy accelerates the expansionof the market for nuclear power…

Global Nuclear Electricity Generation
120
100+Gen III(WRE 550)

EJ/yr

80
60
4020+Gen III(Reference)

01990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

• Regardless of whether there isa global climate policy thatseeks to stabilize atmosphericconcentrations of greenhousegases, nuclear energy isalready an important energy
supplier and is expected tocontinue to expand throughout
this century.

• The market for nuclear power togenerate hydrogen for thetransportation sector is a small
portion of the market forelectricity.
14Issues that while difficult to quantitatively model,
might impact the projected growth of nuclear
power in the 21st century.

• Public policies designed toNuclear Power Production byaddress proliferation
concerns

Technology 550 ppm Stabiilization
Scenario300• Inability to deal with nuclear
250

waste
Global Nuclear Spent Fuel Waste Third Generation
Reactors Under a 550 ppm Stabilization Scenario

Fourth generation reactors could have an
important role in addressing waste, andproliferation issues.

200

EJ/yr

Million Metric Tonnes

2.5
2.0
1.5150Other
sources ofelectricity
production

100

1.050
0.5Gen IVGen IIIGen II0.0
2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

0
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
15

The challenge of scale16Major near-term changes in theenergy system occur in stabilization
80

CO2 Storage Rate 550 ppm

70
60

TgC/y504030
20100
Monitored CO2 Storage 2000

2020 (550 ppm)

17

In the long-term the challenge grows
CO2 Storage Rate Level 2 (~550 ppm)807060

7,000

4030

6,000

20
100
Monitored CO2 Storage 2000

2020 (550 ppm)

5,000

TgC/y

TgC/y

50

4,000
3,000

2,000

1,0000
Monitored CO2Storage 2000

2020 (550 ppm)

2050 (550 ppm)

2095 (550 ppm)
18

Bioenergy and Land use

19

Oil Supply—Global
Stabilization extends the life of conventional oil, reduces shale oil
production, eliminates coal liquefaction and promotes bioenergy.
500

Reference
Unconventional Oil
Biomass Liquids
Gas to Liquids

500

Conventional Oil
Coal Liquifaction

Unconventional Oil
Biomass Liquids
Gas to Liquids
400

300

300

Conventional Oil
Coal Liquifaction

EJ/y

400

EJ/y550 ppm CO2

200

20010010001990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 209501990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095
20

The Flexible Role of Bioenergy
250

Reference and two 500 ppm
stabilization scenarios

200
Biomass Consumption (EJ)

250

Biomass Energy Uses When Bioenergy
Cannot Be Used Without CCS to ProduceElectricity

200
Biomass Consumption (EJ)The Reference Case
250

Biomass Consumption (EJ)

200

Biomass Energy Uses When Bioenergy Can
Be Used in Combination With CCS toProduce Electricity

150

100501500199010020052020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095YearPower with CCS

150
5010001990

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

Year

Liquid Fuels(Transportation)

5001990

2005

2020

2035

2050

Year

2065

2080

2095

Power Generation
21

Commercial bioenergy with andwithout a value on terrestrial carbon
550 ppm without
terrestrial CO2tax

250
225200Gas
Liquid FuelIndustry
H2 Production
Pow er Generation

175

550 ppmterrestrial
CO2 tax

EJ/y

150
125
100
75

Reference
Case

50
250
2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095
22

Carbon cycle implications of valuing terrestrial
carbon emissions
3.0
2.5450 ppm NoCarbon Tax

2.0450 ppm

GTC/Year

1.5
550 ppm

1.00.5650 ppm

0.0-0.5750 ppm-1.0
GTSP
Reference

-1.5
-2.0
2100

2090

2080

2070

2060

2050

2040

2030

2020

2010

2000

23

End use energy efficiency
and fuel choice24

Electrification• The world is electrifying.
• Emissions mitigation increases the relative role of electricity.
• Electricity prices rise relatively less than fuel prices.
Relative Price of Oil toElectricity Relative to Total
Primary Energy
70%

4.0

60%

3.5
Reference Case
450 ppm
550 ppm
650 ppm

40%
30%
20%

3.0
Index 2005=1.050%

Electricity

2.52.0
1.5
1.0

10%

0.50%
1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 2095

0.02005

450 ppm
550 ppm
650 ppm
Reference Case

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095
25

End-use Energy Technologies• Three sectors• Emissions reductions come– Buildings– Industry– Transportation– Energy efficiency improvements– Fuel substitution

from two sources

Primarily
ElectrificationBuildings: 550 ppm

Transport: 550 ppm

45%

Primarily
Biofuels

45%

40%

40%

Fuel Substitution
Energy Use Reductions

35%

35%

30%

30%

25%

25%

20%

20%

15%

15%

10%

10%

5%

5%

0%

0%
2020

2035

2050

2065

Fuel SubstitutionEnergy Use Reductions

2080

2095

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

26

Stabilization of CO2 concentrations means
fundamental change to the global energy
system• CO2 capture and storage (CCS) plays apotentially large role assuming that theinstitutions make adequate provision for itsuse.

• Biotechnology has dramatic potential, but
important land-use implications.

• Hydrogen could be a major new energy

carrier, but requires important technology
advances in fuel cells and storage.

• Nuclear energy could deploy extensively
throughout the world but public
acceptance, institutional constraints,
waste, safety and proliferation issues
remain.

Stabilization of CO2 at 550 ppm
1600

History

Future.

1400
Global Primary Energy 1850-2100 (Exajoules)… but the character of the
global energy system will
depend on technology
developments:

1200

1000

800

600

400

2000

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

• Wind & solar could accelerate
their expansion particularly ifenergy storage improves.

• End-use energy technologies

that improve efficiency and/or
use energy carriers with low
emissions, e.g. electricity deploy
more extensively.`27

END28