Introducing The Vital Spark to Japan
Innovating Clean & Affordable Energyfor All
Professor Gwythian Prins
Convenor of the Hartwell group
October 2013

The Hartwell Group 2007 -13

Hartwell House in Buckinghamshire, England, where the Royal Meteorological Society
was founded in 1850, and where the Hartwell group was originally convened byProfessor Prins, and has continued to meet since 2009.

• Devoted to the continued improvement of living conditions for all humanity
while lightening the weight of the human footprint on Planet Earth• Convened first to react to a common recognition of the fatally flawed natureof the Kyoto Protocol: top-down targets & timetables could never work- andhaven’t. The Kyoto Protocol regime collapsed at Copenhagen in 2009

• Aimed at high-level interventions, first to help redirect global diplomacy onclimate issues (The Hartwell Paper, 2010; Climate Pragmatism, 2011), now to set
sound principles for energy innovation (The Vital Spark, 2013)

Downloadable at THE LONDONSCHOOL OF ECONOMICS and & theINSTITUTE FOR ENERGYECONOMICS OF JAPAN websites
in English or Japanese.
Printed copies available from IEEJThe Hartwell Group: twenty Vital Spark authors – researchersand policy-makers from The Americas N&S, Asia & Europe••••••••••••••••••••

Professor Gwythian Prins, Research Professor, LSE and Director, the Mackinder Programme for the Study of Long Wave Events, London School of
Economics & Political Science, EnglandMark Caine, Research Fellow, LSE and Hartwell Co-ordinator, the Mackinder Programme for the Study of Long Wave Events, London School of
Economics & Political Science, England******************************
Professor Keigo Akimoto, Group Leader, Systems Analysis Group, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, JapanProfessor Paulo Calmon, Centre for Advanced Studies in Government and Public Administration, University of Brasilia, Brazil
Dr John Constable, Director, Renewable Energy Foundation, England
Dr Enrico Deiaco, Director, Innovation and Global Meeting Places, Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis, Sweden & Affiliated Researcher, Schoolof Industrial Engineering and Management, Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
Martin Flack, Analyst, Innovation and Global Meeting Places, Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis, Sweden
Dr Isabel Galiana, Research Fellow, Department of Economics & GEC3, McGill University, Canada
Professor Reiner Grundmann, Professor of Science and Technology Studies, School of Sociology and Social Policy, University of Nottingham, England
Professor Frank Laird, Professor of International Relations, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, USADr Elizabeth Malone, Senior Research Scientist, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, USAYuhji Matsuo, Senior Economist, The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanDr Lawrence Pitt, Associate Director, Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, University of Victoria, Canada
Dr Mikael Roman, Counsellor, Scientific and Technical Affairs, Swedish Agency for Growth Policy Analysis, Office of Science and Innovation, Embassyof Sweden, Brazil
Andrew Sleigh, Pinoak Innovation Consulting, England
Dr Amy Sopinka, Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, University of Victoria, CanadaProfessor Nico Stehr, Karl Mannheim Chair for Cultural Studies, Zeppelin University, Germany
Dr Margaret Taylor, Project Scientist, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USAHiroyuki Tezuka, General Manager, Climate Change Policy Group, JFE Steel Corporation (on behalf of Japan Iron and Steel Federation), Japan
Masakazu Toyoda, Chairman and CEO, The Institute for Energy Economics, Japan

Energy innovation: of special local
interest in Japan – the great innovator

In this picture, the young Meiji
Taitei travels from Kyoto toTokyo at the Restoration 1868
He reigned 1868 -1912 andsaw Japan transformed byimmense innovation from thefeudal Tokugawa shogunate toindustrial world power

The unique fusion

MTOE per$1,000 GDPEnglandUnited States

8energy intensity

Germany
6

Backgrounddecarbonisation:
Since 1800 the Carbon/GDP
ratio improves byapproximately 1.3% eachyear.
The Vital Spark challenge:
CAN THIS BE ACCELERATEDRELIABLY?

42Japan
01840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980

The history of the industrial revolution

2000

2040

Nuclear – stalled but still vital“The only zero-carbon source thatcan be technically scaled up in shortorder is nuclear – much faster thanrenewables on a similar time-frame;
and while not the case in China andto a degree in India, the trend in theWest after the Fukushima incident
is the opposite…”
The Vital Spark p.38

With closure of the Oi reactor in
September 2013, Japan is without
nuclear power again for the second
time since last May; and the evidence ofincompetence in the cause and thepost-accident containment of theFukushima reactor disaster mean thatJapan will likely face a period of highdependence on imported fossil fuels, atgreat expense, pending the re-openingof some of the reactor fleet.
Kashiwazaki-Kariwa (world’s largestcapacity nuclear station) may be thefirst to be certified for re-start, soon.
But Fukushima effect was world-wide…

“Luxury Electricity” – the disaster of theEnergiewende“Germany's aggressive andreckless expansion of wind andsolar power has come with a hefty
pricetag for consumers, and thecosts often fall disproportionately
on the poor. Government advisors
are calling for a completely newstart”. Der Spiegel 26 August 2013
• “Renewable” energy increase10.2% 2012
• National emissions increase 2%• Brown coal burn increase toprovide grid stability.
• Domestic price estimated to
Why energy is becoming expensive andwhat policy needs to do to prevent thisincrease 40% by 2020
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/high-costs-and-errors-of-germantransition-to-renewable-energy-a-920288-3.html

Two global contexts: (1) energy transitions“the global energy system marches to a slow, multi-generational drum” (Vital Spark, p.56)••••

From Hunter-gatherer to Agriculture (wood/wind) to Industrial (coal/oil/gas/nuclear)
From high carbon/low energy-density to low carbon/high energy-density (1800 -2100?)
Current world energy mix: 98.4% coal/oil/gas/nuclear/hydro. 1.6% “new renewables”
Back to the Future?? The currently unsurmountable “new renewable” challenge:
to obtain reliable, high-density energy from low-density, very diffuse fuelsTwo global contexts: (2) ‘climate wars’ & the
failed Kyoto Protocol era: pick your trend…..

Sceptics
point to thisCatastrophists
point to thisThe Vital
Sparkpoints tothisBUT IS GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CLOSELY
COUPLED TO HUMAN ACTIVITY VIA CO2?

THEORETICALLY IT CAN BE: THIS IS THE
FAMOUS ‘GREENHOUSE EFFECT’Increasingly certain that we are not as certain as
the Hansen ‘close coupling’ hypothesis of the1980s once suggested
Decadal predictions from the new HADGem3 computer model
were published on Christmas Eve 2012. In this programme theassumptions about strong CO2/temperature correlations havebeen tempered by more robust modelling of cybernetic
feedbacks. (eg black carbon in the Arctic & Himalaya glaciers)
It confirmed a fifteen year standstill and predicted no global
warming for the next five to seven years.
The AR5 WG1 IPCC report draft leaked in December 2012 has
majored on uncertainties for the first time – sharp change
from dogmatic catastrophism of Pachauri’s AR4 SFP
AR5 published 27 September 2013, shows that past reports
have overestimated future warming by 70% -160%

Sensitivity: The Carbon Dioxide ‘control knob’& ‘climate catastrophism’ 1984 -2013

The rise and fallof ‘climate
catastrophism’
1998-2012.
Peak was 2006
James Hansen’s ‘close coupling’
hypothesis published, 1984

IPCC created, 1988 after 1st 10 yearsof late 20th century warming 1976-97

One problem among many
IPCC 5th Assessment Report SFP now suggests, by2100,• 1.5 – 4.00 degrees celsius• 25-45 cm sea-level rise
Warming is in any case not all bad (cold kills morepeople)- So a real problem, but not an apocalyptic one-

http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/uploads/WGIAR5SPM_Approved27Sep2013.pdf

The Hartwell groupmeeting to designand structure The
Vital Spark, held inVancouver, Canada,in February 2013,agreed that theamount of political
capital sunk into thefailed Kyoto Protocol
diplomacy (fromwhich Japan had
withdrawn at theDurban COP 17 inDecember 2011)
made it essential tofollow Sun Tzu’s
advice and toconstruct a Golden
Bridge from thefailed past to arealistic andambitious future…

How to square the circle:
fundamental Hartwellian
principles for policy-making
in a context of open systems
and great uncertainty“Only general prosperity can produce widespread consent for emissions
reductions, and only affordable energy can deliver prosperity for all”
The Vital Spark, p.24

1. OBLIQUE: Take an oblique line of approach that commands public
legitimacy: make people richer, more comfortable, safer and take the environmental
gains as benefits on the side. (Strategy even more in tune with the IPCC AR5 overview)

2. UNIVERSAL: Only a high-energy global economy is morally defensible orpolitically viable: It is not acceptable to pursue policies that will leave the bottom
billion of humanity without the energy services they require for wellbeing and dignity.

3. AMBITIOUS: ambire – the Latin root – emphasises the need for carefulcultivation of political support. So Relentless pragmatism is the most ambitious
approach, not extravagant promises of impossible things.

The Vital Spark: highlights
THREE key lessons for national
and international success

1. A bottom-up approachuce
to reduce carbon intensity across industries,
sectors and countries: a pragmatic sectoral

approach with more respect for sovereign power –extension of the proven Japanese ‘top runner’ method

2. Combined with the only proven models ofinternational co-operation: the former Asia PacificPartnership and the Major Emitters/Economies
Forum: APP + MEF
Today, the Abe government has an opportunity torevive the success of the Asia-Pacific Partnership inalliance with the new Australian Liberal government:
basis for a new diplomacy?

3. The serious move to Nationally Agreed Mitigation Actions (NAMA) at theDurban COP17 was a direct result of the Japanese position first announced theprevious year at Cancun COP16

Japanese Government statement
at Cancun COP16• “...we will never inscribe our target in theAnnex B to the Kyoto Protocol under any
circumstances and conditions...

• ....Kyoto 2nd commitment period willnever constitute a fair and effective
single framework...”NAIA joins NAMA• The Vital Spark recommends the addition ofNationally Appropriate INNOVATION Actions– Focus public funding upstream: to help overcome‘valley of death’ early demonstrator problems– “In a global policy model based on NAMAs, NAIA’s willserve as the vehicle through which individualcountries implement their nationally agreedcommitments. These will form the substance of a
successful future international discourse..” The VitalSpark, p.81

The Vital Spark: highlights
the key ‘socio-technical’challenges
The book identifies eleven ‘building block’Insights for successful energy innovation:

Current low carbon technologies are technically and economically
uncompetitive: forcing them by subsidy creates ‘bubble’ markets****************
There is no single universal solution: all successful solutions are specific tocontext: but spontaneous adoption is universally required for massive andrapid adoption eg mobile telephony: India 24,000% increase since 2000:
Nigeria has 30,000 mobile phones in 2000 – 113,000,000 today*******************A successful energy transition requires both invention and innovation
Invention = fundamental thought: new discovery: disruptive change
Innovation = improvement of something existing: gradual change**********
Policy-driven premature deployment of immature technologies kills incentive
either to invent or to innovate

18

The ‘gas bridge’: a geo-political game changer
in the USA and a major opportunity in Europe:
an unexpected gift of time, of real reductions
EU climate policy assumes fossil fuel prices will rise
andforeverof experienceand that energy policy should be driven by theclimateUKchange
objective:
effectively
a massive Futures
US Versus
NaturalGas Prices($/mmbtu)(source: Bloomberg))
Contract (3 trillioneuro) on high fossil fuel prices..

161412

108642Henry Hub Gas Price USD/MMBtu
UK NBP Day Ahead (USD/MMBtu)

1/3/12

1/1/12

1/11/11

1/9/11

1/7/11

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1/11/10

1/9/101/7/101/5/101/3/101/1/101/11/09

1/9/091/7/09

1/5/09

1/3/091/1/09

1/11/08

1/9/08

1/7/08

1/5/08

1/3/08

1/1/08

1/11/07

1/9/07

1/7/07

1/5/07

1/3/07

1/1/070The Vital Sparkin Japan
Japan’s energy transition will NOT be produced by any single
technology stream:– NOT by a Gas Bridge ALONE (although LPG/LNG currentlyindispensible)– NOT by a nuclear re-start ALONE (although essential in themedium term)– CERTAINLY NOT by early deployment of “new renewables”
IT WILL REQUIRE AN ‘ALL FRONTS’ APPROACH WHICH CANINVENT, INNOVATE AND DEPLOY INTEGRATED TOTAL ENERGYCYCLES RELIABLY

How exciting!
The Vital Spark challenge is a ‘Meiji Restoration’ scale ofchallenge for Japan to astonish and to show the way
forward for the world once more.
© G.Prins 2013