Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: The People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Project: Dhaka Mass Rapid Transit Development Project (Line 1) (E/S)
Loan Agreement: June 29, 2017
Loan Amount: 5,593 million Yen
Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Urban Development Sector in Bangladesh
The population of Dhaka, increased from 6.62 million to 16.98 million between 1990 and2014 (UN, 2016). The rapid increase in transport demand due to the population increase iscausing numerous problems, including chronic traffic congestion and the resultant airpollution. As a result, the average travel speed for vehicles in Dhaka is 6.4 km/hour, less thanhalf that of vehicles in central Tokyo (16 km/hour) (Kanto Regional Development Bureau,
Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, 2010). As for air pollution, the PM 10
concentration is reported to be 158 μg/m3. This exceeds the World Health Organization
standard of between 20 μg/m3 and 70 μg/m3. The economic loss due to traffic congestion is3.868 billion US dollars per year, which is degrading the investment environment greatly andhindering the economic and social development of Bangladesh.
(2) Development Policies for the Urban Development Sector in Bangladesh and the Priorityof the Project
To solve this problem, the Government of Bangladesh identified the promotion of economic
growth and poverty reduction as a major goal in the 7th Five-Year Plan (FY2016/17–
FY2020/21) and mentions in its Traffic and Communication policy the importance of
reducing road traffic congestion in the metropolitan area with appropriate investment. Basedon this plan, the Government of Bangladesh revised the Strategic Transportation Plan
(hereinafter called “STP”), the master plan for Dhaka urban transportation, with aid fromJICA in August 2016. Within STP a development plan for five routes of Mass Rapid Transit(hereinafter "MRT") and two routes of Bus Rapid Transit (hereinafter "BRT") as a public
transport network was suggested. The Project develops the MRT Line 1, which connects thecentral area of Dhaka city and a new residential area east of Dhaka. From the perspective ofnumerous factors—including transport demand, feasibility, and environmental and social
consideration—the MRT Line 1 was considered a prioritized development initiative in therevised STP along with the MRT Line 5, which connects east and west Dhaka, and the MRTLine 6, which is now being developed through the Japanese ODA loan for the Dhaka Mass
Rapid Transit Development Project.

(3) Japan and JICA's Policy and Operations in the Urban Transport Sector
The Acceleration of Economic Growth that Benefits All People was stated as a priority in theCountry Assistance Policy for Bangladesh (June 2012) to develop transport and traffic
infrastructure while keeping in mind the diversification of transportation, and promote theefficient transport of passengers and goods. Additionally, the JICA Country Analysis Paper forBangladesh (April 2013) identifies urban development including urban transportation as apriority issue. This project is in line with these policies and analysis.
In the past, JICA implemented Institutional Building Assistance for Dhaka Urban Transport
Network Development (FY2010–FY2011) and the Preparation of Rules and Regulations
under Urban Mass Rapid Transit Act (Dhaka, Bangladesh): Technical Assistance Related toODA Loan (FY2013–2015) with the goal of supporting the development of the legal system,
including urban railway law and urban railway technical standards. Additionally, JICA
provided support for the establishment of the revised STP through the Project on the Revision
and Updating of the Strategic Transport Plan for Dhaka (FY2014–2016).
(4) Other Donor's Activity
In addition to assisting the establishment of the above-mentioned STP, the World Bank
implemented the Clean Air and Sustainable Environment Project, which supports detailed
designing of the BRT3 route (between the airport and Jhilmil) from 2009 to 2016.
The Asian Development Bank has been implementing the Greater Dhaka Sustainable Urban
Transport Corridor Project to develop the BRT3 route (between Gazipur and airport) from2010 with the goal of opening it by the end of 2019. Additionally, up to 1 billion US dollars in
aid is planned for the MRT development plan proposed in the revised STP. Preparatory survey
will be conducted in 2017 to offer the loan from 2018.
(5) Necessity of the Project
The Project is in line with the country's development challenges and policies, as well as withthe assistance policies and the analysis of the Government of Japan and JICA. Through thedevelopment of an urban railway, the Project will contribute to easing the worsening traffic
congestion in the Dhaka Metropolitan Area as well as reducing the negative effects on theenvironment caused by air pollution, and is considered to contribute to the eleventh goal of
the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, the necessity for JICA to support theProject is substantial.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to alleviate the traffic congestion and mitigate the air pollutionin Dhaka by constructing the mass rapid transit system, thereby contributing to the economic
development and improving urban environment.

(2) Project Site / Target Area
Dhaka and Narayanganj Districts(3) Project Components
1) Construction of a depot (land development, construction of depot buildings, railway
sidings, etc.)
2) Construction of railway structures (total length of approx. 27 km, construction ofelevated and underground railways, stations, tracks, etc.)
3) Procurement of rolling stocks
4) Installation of electric and signal systems5) Consulting service (F/S review, detailed design, tender assistance, construction
supervision, environmental and social consideration, training on operation andmaintenance, institutional development, non-rail operation development, security etc.)
Out of which, the Loan will assist F/S review, detailed design, tender assistance,environmental and social consideration, training on operation and maintenance,institutional development, non-rail operation development and security of the Project.
(4) Estimated Project Cost (Loan Amount)
7,395 million Yen (Loan Amount：5,593 million Yen) is estimated for the Engineering Service.
The Project Cost will be estimated during the detailed design.
(5) Schedule of the Engineering Service
June 2017 - October 2021 (53 months in total). The Project will be completed upon thedisbursement of the E/S Loan completes (Octobrt 2021).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2) Executing Agency: Dhaka Mass Transit Company Limited (DMTC)
3) Operation and Maintenance System: The operation and maintenance of the Project isprovided by DMTC
(7) Environmental and Social Consideration / Poverty Reduction / Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason for Categorization: The project falls into the railway sector, and is likely tohave significant adverse impact due to its characteristic under the JICA guidelines forenvironmental and social considerations (April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit:
Being studied by the Preparatory Survey to be reviewed during consideration of theProject Loan.

④ Anti-Pollution Measures:
Being studied by the Preparatory Survey to be reviewed during consideration of theProject Loan.
⑤ Natural Environment:
Being studied by the Preparatory Survey to be reviewed during consideration of theProject Loan.
⑥ Social Environment:
Being studied by the Preparatory Survey to be reviewed during consideration of theProject Loan.
⑦ Other / Monitoring:
Being studied by the Preparatory Survey to be reviewed during consideration of theProject Loan.
2) Promotion of Poverty Reduction: None3) Promotion of Social Development (e.g. Gender Perspective, Measure for Infectious
Diseases Including HIV/AIDS, Participatory Development, Consideration for thePerson with Disability etc.): The safety of female passengers is not necessary ensured
in the public transportation in Bangladesh. This makes female passengers feel
reluctant to use the public transportation. In this context, a gender action plan will bepromoted including operation of women-only cars in rush hours and installation ofsecurity cameras in the trains and stations, to ensure the safety of women in the trainsand stations and to enhance understanding of gender issues. For this reason, theProject is specified as a project that includes gender-related activities.
(8) Collaboration with Other Donors: None
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicators)
To be reviewed during consideration of the Project Loan.
2) Internal Rate of Return
To be reviewed during consideration of the Project Loan.
(2) Qualitative Effects
To be reviewed during consideration of the Project Loan.
5. External Factors and Risk Control
Not applicable for Engineering Service Loan. To be reviewed during consideration of theProject Loan.

6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects(1) Lessons Learned from Past Projects
The results of the ex-post evaluation of India's Kolkata Subway Construction Project(2002)revealed that, with projects that involve land acquisition and relocation of facilities, it isimportant to actively incorporate ideas from residents and parties involved from the planningand implementation phase. The results also indicated that underground installations such as
water and sewage can become a factor for construction delays and cost overrun. Additionally,
the results of the ex-post evaluation of India's Delhi High-speed Transit System Construction
Project (I)-(IV) showed that construction delays were avoided by having the implementingagency (Delhi Metro) perform the relocation of all underground installations instead of thewater works authorities, etc.
In the preceding Japanese ODA loan for the Dhaka Urban Transport Development Project, theproject's alignment had to be changed due to the construction of a flyover planned by anotheragency. It is clear that proper coordination with relevant agencies must be done from theplanning phase.
(2) Application of Lessons Learned to the ProjectBased on the lessons above, the Project plans to identify the scale and transfer destination ofland acquisition from the detailed design phase of the loan through environmental and social
consideration support consulting service, etc., and start discussions with stakeholders fromearly on. Additionally, this E/S will facilitate plans for the implementation of specificmeasures for preventing construction delays and cost overrun by conducting a detailed
geological survey, underground installation survey, underground obstacle survey, and cultural
asset survey during the detailed design phase, and having the project's implementing agency,
DMTC, perform the relocation of underground installations, removal of undergroundinstallations, and the associated coordination with relevant agencies.
Regarding coordination with other agencies in the design phase, only development projects
that are planned in the cabinet-approved revised STP can be implemented. Projects from otheragencies should not require changes to the Project's plan, but necessary adjustments will bemade through inter-agency discussions attended by relevant agencies including DTCA.
7. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used: To be reviewed during consideration of the Project Loan.
(2) Timing : To be reviewed during consideration of the Project Loan.