Ex-Ante Evaluation Paper (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department, JICA
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: India
Project: Project for Ecosystem Restoration in Gujarat
Loan Agreement: March 27, 2020
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Ecosystem Conservation Sector in India’sGujarat State
India has a varied topography and geographical conditions, and its
ecosystems are also rich in diversity. Diverse ecosystems fulfill wide-ranging
functions for the community as blessings of nature in the form of “ecosystemservices.” These services include water conservation, soil run-off prevention, soil
conservation and flood regulation (regulating services), as well as ensuringmeans of subsistence and livelihood based on the provision of forest resources(provisioning service). Looking at forests, though, which are a typical ecosystem
in India, forest cover as a percentage of national land decreased from 34.5% in
1880 to 19.2% (633,000 km2) in 1997, in part as a consequence of logging,conversion of land for farming, and development activities. In an attempt tostrengthen ecosystem conservation, the Government of India introduced
biodiversity conservation laws on the establishment of national parks andsanctuaries, as well as on prohibiting the hunting and trade of wild animals andthe harvesting of specific plants, in addition to enforcing forest conservation laws
and implementing participatory forest management. As of 2017, forest cover had
increased slightly to 21.5%. Furthermore, the Government of India states in its
2014 Green India Mission that it will seek to restore biodiversity and improve
ecosystem services, such as water resource management and carbon
sequestration, through implementing conservation/restoration projects covering
100,000 km2 over 10 years.
Gujarat is a state in western India. It has a population of 60.38 million (2011),
and an area of 196,000 km2. Within the state, there are diverse ecosystems,
each of which provide communities with unique ecosystem services. Mangrovesand coastal forests stave off heavy seas during cyclones and prevent damage
caused by salt in the sea wind. Grasslands produce grass to feed livestock.
Forests control floods and produce forest products. And wetlands control floods
and provide a means of livelihood through fisheries. The state’s diverse1

ecosystems serve as a habitat for wildlife, including for endangered species
listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). Gujarat ishome to the Asiatic lion and other species that are already extinct in othercountries or in other Indian states.
However, there has been a degradation of ecosystems and a decline inecosystem services in recent years brought about by the increased use ofnatural resources including firewood and irrigation water, as a consequence ofpopulation growth as well as economic development including development ofland for housing and development of urban areas. There have been concerns on
an increase in economic damage attributable to natural disasters and on thesustainable economic activities of rural communities being hindered by adecrease in water resources. In addition, due to habitats being threatened, there
has also been a number of injuries and fatalities to residents following conflicts
with wildlife encroaching human habitats. 862 cases (including 88 fatalaccidents) were reported in the five-year period between 2014 and 2018(preparatory survey). As for livestock casualties, there have been more than
4,200 cases in a one-year period (2016). Such a situation in Gujarat requires
model countermeasures to be developed and implemented for improving thesituation through maintaining and restoring ecosystems according to thecharacteristics of each ecosystem and the social and economic circumstances
surrounding that ecosystem.
With assistance provided by Japanese ODA loans, the Gujarat Forest
Department sought to improve the percentage of forest cover, implementing theGujarat Afforestation and Development Project (hereinafter referred to as “Phase1”) from 1995 through to 2004, followed by the Gujarat Forestry Development
Project Phase 2 (hereinafter referred to as “Phase 2”) from 2007 through to 2017.
During Phase 2 in particular, livelihood improvement activities were conducted inconjunction with afforestation activities through Joint Forest Management
Committees and Eco Development Committees organized by local residents,and participatory forest management with communities were developed. As aresult, 1,724 km2 of afforestation was carried out in the target area, and incomes
were improved following livelihood improvement activities being conducted forabout 2,700 community organizations. Taking advantage of the Phase 2 support,
the Forest Department has also been planting mangroves since 2000, and as of2016, the area of mangrove forests had increased from 431 km2 in 2011 to 1,107
km2 (Indian State of Forest Report). However, as described earlier, there has
been a statewide degradation of ecosystems and decline in ecosystem services2brought about by the increased use of natural resources as a consequence of
population growth and by economic development in recent years. There havebeen concerns about an increase in economic damage attributable to natural
disasters and about the sustainable economic activities of rural communities
being hindered.
The Government of Gujarat has formulated “Gujarat Sustainable Vision2030”—a policy that outlines the state’s priority projects and sector-specifictargets based on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Within this, eachgovernment Department has formulated policies and development plans basedon the SDGs. Consistent with the recognition stated in the vision regarding theimportance of ecosystem conservation, Forest Department has developed apolicy to achieve the SDGs Goal 15—namely, the sustainable use of terrestrial
ecosystem services—and in implementing this policy, has adopted a strategy ofdeveloping “ecological infrastructure” to carry out disaster prevention and water
management utilizing ecosystem services. Ecological infrastructure includes
strategic development of mangroves and coastal shelterbelts, restoration ofgrasslands, wetlands and forests and management of human wildlife conflict.
Forest Department will also take the participatory joint management framework
developed during Phase 2 and adapt it for other ecosystem restoration activities
in addition to forests.
The Project for Ecosystem Restoration in Gujarat (hereinafter referred to as
the “Project”)—which addresses social and economic issues within the statethrough the development of “ecological infrastructure” (model countermeasures
for maintaining and rehabilitating ecosystems) which is at the core of the state
government’s ecosystem conservation policy, while adopting the participatory
approach developed during Phase 2—is positioned as an important project inGujarat’s ecosystem conservation sector.
(2) Japan and JICA’s Ecosystem Conservation Sector/Gujarat Cooperation
Policy and the Positioning of this Project
Under Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016), the Government ofJapan has positioned support for sustainable and inclusive growth as a priority
area, and is working on income generation programs for the poor, and is
promoting assistance for the forestry sector in order to tackle environmental andclimate change issues. The JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018)
also analyzes the need for measures to promote the appropriate use of natural
resources for inclusive growth in rural areas, and which lead to the appropriate
conservation and use of forests and other natural resources. Accordingly, the3

Project is consistent with this policy and analysis.
(3) Other Donors’ Activity
In India, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) is supporting formulation of abiodiversity conservation program and associated action plan. Meanwhile, underits Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (2010–2020), the World Bankis implementing a program designed to strengthen the capacity for integrated
coastal zone management, and has conducted mangrove conservation andresearch on wildlife conservation in coast areas in Gujarat as a pilot project. The
Project has been coordinated to ensure there is no overlap with theabove-mentioned projects in the target area.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to restore and enhance ecosystem services bydevelopment of mangroves and coastal shelterbelts, restoration of grasslands,wetlands and forests, management of human wildlife conflict and institutional
strengthening, thereby contributing to solving socio-economic issues in Gujarat
State.
(2) Project Site / Target Area: Gujarat(3) Project Components
1) Ecological infrastructure development in coastal area (plantation ofmangrove, plantation of shelterbelts, etc.)
2) Ecological infrastructure development in inland area. (restoration ofgrasslands, forests and wetlands, livelihood improvement activities(vocational training, establishment of a revolving fund for microcredit,
cluster development for marketing of non-timber forest products and otherproducts), etc.)
3) Human wildlife conflict management (habitat improvement, livelihood
improvement activities (vocational training, establishment of a revolving
fund for microcredit, cluster development for marketing), improvement ofwildlife rescue centers, etc.)
4) Institutional strengthening (preparation of habitat maps, development ofgeographic information systems (GIS), establishment of corporate social
responsibility (CSR) funds, capacity building training, etc.)
5) Consulting services (implementation supervision, etc.)(4) Estimated Project Cost
16,293 million yen (of which, the ODA Loan amount is 13,757 million yen)4(5) Schedule
March 2020 – March 2029 (109 months in total). Project completion date isdefined as date by when activities of the Project shall be completed in totality(March 2029).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India
2) Guarantor: N/A
3) Executing Agency: Gujarat Forest Department, Government of Gujarat4) Operation and Maintenance System: With regard to activities carried out
directly by Forest Department, Forest Department will, using its own budget,
continue to operate and maintain these activities after the completion of theProject. With regard to activities led by communities, these activities will be
operated and maintained by Joint Forest Management Committees and othercommunity organizations after the completion of the Project. In order to enhancethe operation and maintenance capabilities of communities, Forest Department
will provide training to community organizations on establishing maintenancesystems, and community organizations will formulate operation andmaintenance plans together with Forest Department. Furthermore, Forest
Department is well equipped with the technical capabilities necessary for
maintenance, and will, where necessary, provide technical support for theoperation and maintenance carried out by communities. With regard to funds
necessary for the operation and maintenance carried out by communities,
community organizations will, with the involvement of Forest Department,
continue to operate the revolving fund set up during the Project, and use it for
operation and maintenance.
(7) Collaboration with Other Schemes and Donors
1) Japan’s Assistance Activities: None
2) Other Donors’ Assistance Activities: The executing agency will establish acorporate social responsibility (CSR) fund, and the responsible unit in theProject will promote privately funded afforestation by liaising with privatecompanies.
(8) Environmental and Social Consideration / Cross-Sectoral Issues / GenderCategory
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: FI② Reason for Categorization
In accordance with the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social
Considerations (published in April 2010), sub-projects cannot be5

identified prior to JICA’s approval of the loan for the Project, and such
sub-projects may have an impact on the environment.
③ Other / Monitoring
During the Project, while receiving support from consultants employedusing the Japanese ODA loan, the executing agency will categorize
sub-projects based on India’s domestic legislation and on the JICA
Guidelines, and will take action necessary for the applicable category.
The sub-projects will not include any category A projects.
2) Cross-Sectoral Issues
During the Project, activities will be conducted using a participatory approach,whereby Joint Forest Management Committees or other community
organizations are formed, and plans combining restoration activities andlivelihood improvement activities are collaboratively formulated by Forest
Department in conjunction with communities. Furthermore, since the Project
includes components such as planting of mangrove forests, planting ofshelterbelts and ecosystem conservation, the Project also contributes to climatechange measures (mitigation/adaptation) with an expected reduction in CO2emissions of 13,623,000 tons.
3) Gender Category: ■GI (S) (Gender activity integration project)<Activities/Classification Rationale>
In the rural areas targeted by this Project, there are limited training
opportunities and employment opportunities for women. The livelihood
improvement activities carried out during the Project involve efforts led by
self-help groups comprised primarily of women, and the plans readily reflect theintentions of women.
(9) Other Important Issues: N/A6

4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Baseline(Actual valuein 2020)

Target (2031)[2 years afterprojectcompletion]

Plantation in Coastal area (ha) *1-

12,200Survival rate of mangroves after 3 years (%)-

At least 50*2*3

Grassland restoration area (ha)-8,500Productivity of grassland (t/ha)*2*4

Removal of weeds in wetland area (ha)

-900

*2*4

Forest restoration area (ha)-9,000Survival rate of plantation (%)-

At least 50

Increase of vegetation cover (ha)*2*4*2*4-

6,000

*5*4-

701

*2

*40100Indicator
Ecological infrastructure development in coastal area

Agriculture productivity behind coastal shelter belts(t/ha)
Ecological infrastructure development in coastal area in inland areas

Number of species and their population of biodiversityof wetland

Increase of JFMC member’s annual household income
from Non-Timber Forest Products (NTFP) (%)
Human wildlife conflict management

Removal of weeds for habitat improvement (ha)Deduction of number of incidents of human wildlifeconflict (%)
Institutional strengthening

NumberofJFMCsandEDCs

newly

established/reactivatedIncrease of JFMC and EDC member’s annual
household income from livelihood improvement
activities (%)
Area covered with GIS based monitoring by forest
officers (%) *610
Number of donors to CSR activities*1 Plantation area of Mangrove and Coastal Shelterbelts*2 Original figures shall be decided by baseline survey conducted by the executing agency
after the start of the Project.

7

*3 Target crops and productivity shall be decided by survey conducted during the courseof implementation. Plantation in the 1st batch (second year of the Project) will be used forevaluation, considering the time required for growth sufficient to have effects.
*4 Target shall be decided based on the result of the baseline survey and mid-term survey
to be conducted by the executing agency in the fourth year of the Project.
*5 Base data will be collected from the Forest Department’s record of conflict with wildlife.
*6 Percentage of total project intervention area.

(2) Qualitative Effects
Improvement of ecosystem services, social participation of women, resolution ofsocial and economic issues such as agricultural damage attributable to floods
and other natural disasters or to salt in the sea wind.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the conditions indicated below, the economic internal rate of return(EIRR) will be 12.6%. Since generating revenue is not an objective of thisProject, the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) has not been calculated.
[EIRR]
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance expenses (excluding tax)
Benefit: Income from forest products, fodders, income generation activities,reduction in CO2, mitigation of human wildlife conflicts
Project Life: 50 years
5. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions: N/A(2) External Factors: N/A
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects and Application to the Project
From the ex-post evaluation results of the Haryana Natural Resource
Management and Poverty Reduction Project (evaluated in fiscal 2016), it has
been learned that, in order to enable an appropriate evaluation to be carried out
during the ex-post evaluation, detailed outcomes of considerations anddiscussions at the time of appraisal (consideration of the appropriateness ofoperation and effect indicators, identification of person/organization to collectrequired information, specific measurement policy, timing, location, etc.) should
be recorded in the written agreement at the time, and related materials collectedduring project implementation should be appropriately preserved. Furthermore,from past forest projects carried out in the Indian state of Gujarat, it has beenlearned that clarifying the division of roles between the Forest Department andJoint Forest Management Committees before implementing the project—that is,8the Forest Department carries out seedling and planting activities, while JointForest Management Committees carry out forest maintenance work—isimportant for achieving the project effects. Similarly, from the detailed analysis(qualitative comparative analysis) in the ex-post evaluation results of the Tamil
Nadu Biodiversity Conservation and Greening Project (evaluated in fiscal 2017),
it has been learned that consensus building between the Forest Department andthe Joint Forest Management Committees contributes to rehabilitation of theforests.
Based on the lessons learned from the ex-post evaluation results of theHaryana Natural Resource Management and Poverty Reduction Project, in thisProject, agreement has been made with the executing agency regarding specificmeasurement methods for operation and effect indicators. Furthermore, basedon the lessons learned from the ex-post evaluation results of the Tamil Nadu
Biodiversity Conservation and Greening Project, the division of roles between
the department and community organizations will be clarified and consensus
formed for the Forest Department to cultivate seedlings and plant trees, and for
the Joint Forest Management Committees/Eco Development Committees toundertake maintenance work.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project is consistent with the development policy of the Government ofIndia, the policies of the Government of Gujarat, and the cooperation
policy/analysis of the Government of Japan and JICA, and also contributes toGoal 1 (eradication of poverty), Goal 13 (action against climate change), Goal 14(sustainable development of marine resources, including coastal areas), andGoal 15 (promoting the sustainable use and management of terrestrial
ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation) of the SDGs; therefore, it is highly
necessary to support implementation of the Project.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As indicated in sections 4. (1) to (3).
(2) Timing of the Next Evaluation
Two years after the project completion
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