Japanese ODA Loan

Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: The People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Project: Jamuna Railway Bridge Construction Project (I)Loan Agreement: June 14, 2018
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Development of the Railway Sector and Priority of
the Project in Bangladesh
The People’s Republic of Bangladesh has railway networks with a total length of
2,877 km. However, most of their facilities and equipment are outdated as they weredeveloped during the British colonial era before 1947. Due to this deterioration of therailway infrastructure, the transportation volume and service quality of these networks
have decreased and Bangladesh has been unable to fully utilize the advantages of railtransportation, such as its punctuality, ability to transport large quantities, safety andenergy saving. As a result, while the share that road transportation accounts for in thetransport sector as a whole in Bangladesh rapidly increased from the 1970s, that ofrail transportation has gradually decreased to the point where it now only accounts forapproximately 10%. In the meantime, following strong economic growth in
Bangladesh and its neighboring countries, container transportation is expected toincrease rapidly in the future and rail transportation, which is an efficient mode oftransporting containers, is expected to play a more major role.
Under the Jamuna Railway Bridge Construction Project (hereinafter referred to as“the Project”), a new dedicated railway bridge (with double dual-gauge tracks forbroad- and narrow-gauge trains) will be constructed 300 m upstream from where theexisting Jamuna Multipurpose Bridge (hereinafter referred to as the “Existing Bridge”)
crosses the Jamuna River, which flows through central Bangladesh. Although theExisting Bridge was originally intended to be used as a road bridge, a railway line(with a single dual-gauge track for broad- and narrow-gauge trains) was constructed
as a section forming part of the Trans-Asian Railway, which leads into neighboring
India, in light of an increasing demand for domestic and international rail transport.
However, the Existing Bridge presents several challenges: 1) the train capacity islimited as it is a single-track line; 2) speed and weight limits are imposed structurally
as the track was constructed at the edge (on the upstream side of the river) of thebridge, not at its center; and 3) some cracks were found in its foundation in the past(these cracks have already been fixed). Therefore, in view of securing thesustainability of the Existing Bridge, the separation of the railway part of the bridge isurgently required. After a new dedicated railway bridge has been constructed, theExisting Bridge will be repaired to produce a four-lane road bridge at the cost of theBangladeshi government.
In the National Integrated Multimodal Transportation System Policy (2013), theBangladeshi government states its commitment to strengthening its rail transportation
to address the current imbalance in transportation modes caused by the dominance ofroad transportation. In addition, in its Railway Master Plan (2013), the government
states that it will prioritize the execution of the Project, which is intended to contributeto international rail transportation as a section of the Trans-Asian Railway.
(2) Japan and JICA’s Cooperation Policy and Operations in the Railway Sector
The JICA Country Analysis Paper for Bangladesh (May 2014) identifies thedevelopment of a domestic transportation and traffic network as an important issue.
Moreover, Japan’s Country Assistance Program for Bangladesh (February 2018)
focuses on accelerating economic growth as an important goal and states that efforts
will be made to develop high-quality transportation and traffic infrastructure with theaim of promoting the effective movement of people and goods and improving regional
connectivity. The Project is, therefore, consistent with these policies and the analysis.
JICA’s past support activities for the railway sector include the Dhaka-Chittagong
Railway Development Project (loan project approved in FY2007) and the Technical
Assistance for the Preparation of Rules and Regulations under the Dhaka Mass Rapid
Transit Act (FY2011–2015).
The Project is one of five projects requested by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in theJapan-Bangladesh Comprehensive Partnership, which was announced jointly at theJapan-Bangladesh Summit Meeting held in May 2014, and it is positioned as animportant project that will contribute to improved regional connectivity. In addition, as
the Project will improve the railway corridor connecting surrounding and neighboring
countries and enhance logistics and passenger transportation, it will also contribute toSustainable Development Goal 9 (“Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive andsustainable industrialization and foster innovation”).
(3) Other Donors’ Activity
The major donor for the railway sector in Bangladesh is the Asian Development
Bank (ADB). ADB provides support for the reforming of the railway sector, including aproject for the conversion of certain sections of the railway into dual-gauge tracks aswell as the privatization of the Bangladesh Railway (BR) and revision of its fares under
the Railway Sector Investment Program (since 2007). Moreover, in recent years, theIndian government has provided support for procurement of rolling stocks and theconstruction of new lines and railway bridges, while the Chinese government has
provided support for projects to convert multiple sections of the railway intodual-gauge tracks and to construct new lines.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective(s)The objective of the Project is to meet the demand for rail transportation, expand
the road capacity of the Existing Bridge and improve its sustainability and safety byconstructing a new dedicated railway bridge parallel to the existing Jamuna
Multipurpose Bridge in the basin of the Jamuna River, thereby contributing to greater
efficiency in the transportation links within Bangladesh and with its neighboring
countries.
(2) Project Site / Target Area
Sirajganj District and Tangail District(3) Project Component(s)1) Construction of the Jamuna Railway Bridge (steel through truss bridge with alength of 4.8 km and double dual-gauge tracks)
2) Construction of approach tracks (elevated bridges) on both banks andrelocation of the rail tracks (7.7 km in total for both banks)
3) Related facilities such as signaling systems, relocation and repair of stationbuildings on both banks (Bangabandhu Setu East Station and Bangabandhu
Setu West Station) and incidental facilities, etc.
4) Consulting services (F/S review, detailed design, tender assistance,
construction supervision, environmental and social consideration procedures
and monitoring assistance, etc.)(4) Estimated Project Cost (Loan Amount)
171,229 million Yen (Loan Amount: 126,794 million Yen)
(5) Schedule
June 2016 - December 2024 (103 months in total). The Project will be completed
when the facilities are put in place (November 2023).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2) Guarantor: N/A
3) Executing Agency: BR
4) Operation and Maintenance System: BR(7) Cooperation and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
1) Japan’s Activity: N/A
2) Other Donors’ Activity: N/A(8) Environmental and Social Consideration / Poverty Reduction / Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: ■A □B □C □FI② Reason for Categorization: The Project falls into the railways and bridges
sector under the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations(published in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit: The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report for
the Project was approved in December 2017 by the Department ofEnvironment (DOE) under Bangladesh’s Ministry of Environment and Forest.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures: With respect to air quality, noise and vibration during
construction work, the environmental effects will be mitigated by taking
measures such as sprinkling water, placing covers over load-carrying platforms
on vehicles, managing equipment and vehicles properly, soundproofing
construction equipment and using low-noise heavy machinery. Moreover, theeffects that wastewater and waste from the workers’ camp or the construction
yard have on the water quality and bottom sediment will be minimized byinstalling a septic tank or settling reservoir, securing a place to store waste, ortaking other appropriate measures. When the bridge piers are constructed, theeffects of muddy water will be avoided by adopting cofferdams, using silt
fences, or taking other appropriate measures. Furthermore, although thevibration and noise caused by running trains after the commencement ofservices is not expected to have any particular impact, appropriate measures
will be taken if monitoring indicates that the railway has a significant impact.
⑤ Natural Environment: In the forest park located on the west bank of theJamuna River, trees will be cut down due to the Project. However, the area will
be reforested upon consultation with the DOE and other related parties. Whilethe target area for the Project is not located in or around national parks or othervulnerable areas, the whole area of the Jamuna River is designated as animportant bird sanctuary. The impact of the Project is expected to be minimizedby the implementation of measures such as protecting nests and minimizing
logging during construction. In addition, river dolphins, which are designated as
an endangered species, live in the Jamuna River. If they are seen during theconstruction work, any material negative impact will be avoided by taking
measures such as suspending the piling work and stopping the vessels used
for construction.
⑥ Social Environment: Since the Project will be implemented on land owned by
the executing agency or transferred by the Bangladesh Bridge Authority, noland acquisitions or resettlements will occur. Moreover, although there is asandbar in the middle of the Jamuna River, no residential area has been found
to exist on the sandbar near the target area of the Project. In addition, although
access to the construction area will be restricted, any potential impact that theconstruction work for the Project may have on fishery and farming will be
avoided by issuing early notices to residents. The implementation of theProject is not expected to have any particular effect on floods or erosion or tohave any impact on livelihoods due to such disasters. Monitoring will beconducted by the BR through continuous participation by local residents.
⑦ Other / Monitoring: For the Project, the contractor and the BR are in charge ofmonitoring air quality, noise, vibration, water quality, ecosystems, etc. After thestart of operations, the BR will monitor noise, ecosystems, and the impact onlivelihoods.
2) Cross-Cutting Issues: N/A
3) Gender Category: [Gender Project] GI (S) (Gender Activities Integration Project)
Activity Component(s)/Reason for Categorization:
In Bangladesh’s public transportation systems, a lack of sufficientconvenience for women acts as an obstacle to women’s use of these systems. TheProject will adopt a design that takes into account convenience for women,
including the installation of toilets and prayer rooms for women at Bangabandhu
Setu East Station and Bangabandhu Setu West Station, both of which are to be
repaired. Consequently, this is categorized as a Gender Activities Integration
Project.
(9) Other Important Issues
N/A
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Indicator

Target (2025)
Baseline(Expected value 2 years(Actual Value in 2017)
after project completion)

Passengers carried (millionpassengers-km/day)

5.15

11.24

Goods transported (thousandtons-km/day)

144

1,679

Frequency of trains (number oftrains in service/day)

22.41

38.53

Maximum speed of trains whencrossing the bridge (km/h)

16100

Average time required to travel from
Bangabandhu Setu East Station at
one end of the bridge to
Bangabandhu Setu West Station at
the other end (minutes)

44.25 19.00 2(2) Qualitative Effects
Logistics within Bangladesh and with neighboring countries will be improved, thesafety of rail transportation will be improved through measures such as the separation
12Time required for a train to travel on the Existing Bridge is measured.
Time required for a train to travel on the dedicated railway bridge is measured.

of railway portions, and the sustainability and safety of the Existing Bridge will beimproved. Traffic jams will be reduced.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
According to the following preconditions, the Project’s Economic Internal Rate ofReturn (EIRR) will be 11.9%. The Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) will be
0.4%.
[EIRR]
Cost: Project costs (excluding tax) and operation/maintenance costs
Benefit: Reduction in time costs, vehicle operation costs and maintenance costs
for existing roads, increase in safety (reduction in number of traffic accidents) andeffects of reducing greenhouse gases
Project Life: 30 years[FIRR]
Cost: Project costs and operation/maintenance costs
Benefit: Fare revenues and usage fees for laying gas pipes
Project Life: 30 years
5. Preconditions / External Conditions(1) Preconditions: N/A(2) External Conditions: Improvements to the railway infrastructure in thesurroundings of the project area, including double-tracking between Joydebpur andIshurdi, will be implemented as planned.
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
The results of the ex-post evaluation (in 2011) of the Second Mekong InternationalBridge Construction Project in Thailand and Laos revealed that the traffic volume
predicted for the project planning stage was not achieved due to insufficient
improvements to surrounding infrastructure. The lesson learned from the project isthat, in the case of improvements to a broad-based transportation network, it isimportant to prepare a project after the improvement situations and development
plans of other roads and transportation networks have been sufficiently analyzed andconsidered. The details of the Project were reviewed taking into account related
projects based on the Broad-Based Transport and Traffic Improvement Plan in theSouth Asia Region because the Bangladesh government and other donors are
improving railways, roads and other transportation infrastructure near the planned
project area at about the same time and the circumstances of such improvements
may influence the effects of the Project.
In addition, the results of the ex-post evaluation (in 1985) of the Nonthaburi and
Pathumthani Bridges Construction Project in Thailand indicated that for large bridges
it was necessary to review the plan during the construction work due to floods and soft

ground, and extra time was required to deal with such problems. Since the target area
for this Project also has soft ground, the Project’s plan reflects the idea that sufficientgeological survey must be conducted by consultants before a detailed design is made.
In addition, extra care must be taken when finalizing the bridge design and preparing
tender documents based on the results of the detailed design so that the Project will
not be delayed.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project is consistent with the assistance policies and the analysis of theGovernment of Japan and JICA. In addition, the policies of the Bangladesh
government indicate the importance of improving the railway corridor that connects
the surrounding and neighboring countries and enhancing logistics and passengertransportation. The Project is expected to contribute to SDGs Goal 9 (“Build resilientinfrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and fosterinnovation”). Thus, the necessity for JICA to support the Project is substantial.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As described in (1)-(3) of Section 4.
(2) Timing
Ex-post evaluation: Two years after the project completion