Grand Transformation
toward Sustainable Future
for All
Nebojsa Nakicenovic
Deputy Director General
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Professor Emeritus of Energy Economics
Vienna University of Technology

ALPS International Symposium, RITE, Tokyo – 7 February 2017

Global Transformations
Years before present

1011

People

1010
109
108
107
106

106

Hunter-Gatherer
105

Nakicenovic

104

103

102

101

100

Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 19602017 #2

Global Transformations
Neolithic Revolution
Years before present

1011

People1010
109

700 Million
Neolithic

108
107
106

106

1700 A.D.

7 Million

5000 B.C.

Hunter-Gatherer
105

Nakicenovic

104

103

102

101

100

Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 19602017 #3

Global Transformations
Neolithic and Industrial Revolutions
Years before present

1011

People1010
109

700 Million

106

106

1700 A.D.

Neolithic

108
107

Industrial

7,000 Million

7 Million

5000 B.C.

Hunter-Gatherer
105

Nakicenovic

104

103

102

101

100

Source: Kates, 1997; Deevey, 19602017 #4

Global Transformations
Anthropocene - Toward Sustainability
Years before present

1011

after present
Anthropocene

People1010
1097,000 Million

106

106

12.5 Billion
5 Billion

Sustainability
700 Million

1700 A.D.

Neolithic

108
107

Industrial

7 Million

5000 B.C.

Hunter-Gatherer
105

Nakicenovic

104103102101

100

101

Source: Lutz & Scherbov, 2007; 2008

102
2017 #5

Stockton – Darlington Steam Railway

Nakicenovic

2017 #6

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #7

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #8

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #9

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #10

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #11

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #12

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #13

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #14

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #15

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #16

The Great Acceleration

Source: Steffen et al. 2015

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #17

Bildquelle: https://www.wmo.int/media/

The Paris Agreement

Limiting globalwarming to“well below”

Achieving net-zero

Regular review andGHG emissions by mid of improvement of nationallythe 21st century

determined contributions

billion a year in
support by 2020
through 2025

2 degrees celsius

Nakicenovic

Mobilizing $100

Source: Schellnhuber, 20162017 #18

100,000-year ice-core record

Source: Data from Petit et al. 1999, labeled as in Young and Steffen 2009.

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #19

Holocene Temperature Profile

Adapted from Shakun et al. 2012 and Marcott et al 2013.

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #20

Tipping Elements & ParisAdapted from Schellnhuber et al. 2016

Nakicenovic

Rockström

IUCN, 2017 #21

The Natomo Family, Kouakourou, MaliNakicenovic© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

2017 #22

The Ukita Family, Tokyo, Japan

Nakicenovic© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

2017 #23

Nakicenovic

Source: Tellus Institute2017 #24

 Japan – SDG Implementation Guiding Principles &Specific Measures to Achieve SDGs
Nakicenovic

2017 #25

Integrated Systems approach toSDG-Pathways
We lack a truly integrated, comprehensive
quantitative understanding of sustainable
development pathways, accounting for theinter-linkages between the economy,technology, environment, climate, humandevelopment and planetary boundaries.

Nakicenovic

2017 #26

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)
 How to achieve global development within asafe and just operating space
 “Safe space” of interaction among SDGs:
sustainability narratives and integrated
models e.g. SSP1, GEA, DDPP Multiple-benefits and tradeoffs oftransformation toward sustainable futures

Nakicenovic

2017 #27

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)

Nakicenovic

2017 #28

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The World in 2050 “Consortium”

AIMES
Brazilian Federal Agency for the Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES)
Centre for Integrated Studies on Climate Change and the Environment (CIRED)
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO)
Earth League, whole Earth system modelling initiative
Earth Institute, Columbia University
Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM)
Future Earth
German Development Institute (DIE)
Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC)
Indian Institute International Futures
Indian Institute of Technology (IIT)International Energy Agency (IEA)
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)International Monetary Fund (IMF)International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Joint Research Centre, European Commission
Joint Global Change Research Institute at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (JGCRI/PNNL)
Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Change (PIK)
PBL - Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)
Stanford University
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN)
The City University of New York (CUNY)
Tsinghua University
UN Population Division
UN DESAUNEP- World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC)
University of Hamburg
World Bank

2017 #29

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)

Transformation Diffusion“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

Vision:SustainableFuture→ Growing number ofactors of change:•••••

green businesses
citiescivil society
science
IGOs (UN etc.)

Legitimacy ofBAU eroding
Incremental
Nakicenovic→ New values and norms→ 2050: Sustainability
transformation→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs

RadicalTransformational

Source: After WBGU, 20112017 #30

The World in 2050 (TWI2050.com)

Transformation Diffusion“Doing More with Less” within Planetary Boundaries

Vision:SustainableFuture→ New values and norms→ 2050: Sustainability
transformation

Legitimacy ofBAU eroding
Incremental
Nakicenovic→ 2030: Achievement of SDGs

RadicalTransformational

Source: After WBGU, 20112017 #31

Transformational Change
1850

1900

1950

Nakicenovic
Source:After Granger Morgan, 2013

2000

2050

2017 #3232

Technological Change
Dynamic, Cumulative, Systemic and Uncertain
 Incremental – gradual (continuous) andcumulative improvements Abrupt – radical, discontinuous anddisruptive as “gales of creative
destruction”
 Add as many mail-coaches as you
please, you will never get a railroad by sodoing. [Schumpeter, 1935/1951, 136
Nakicenovic

2017 #33

Disruptive Change

Darum geht zu allen Völkern […] und lehrt sie alles
zu befolgen was ich Euch geboten habe.
Seid gewiss: Ich bin bei euch alle Tage bis ans
Ende der Welt.

Nakicenovic

Source: Campanale, Carobntracker

2017 #34

34

Incremental & Disruptive
Technologies
transformationalWe seek technologies
that lead tofundamentally newlearning curves

Steam-poweredCugnot (1769)

costperformance

Benz Motorwagen(1885)

existing technology

disruptive

Ford Model T(1914)

Source: Steve Chu, 20132017 #35

time
Nakicenovic

UK – Replacement within Vehicle Fleets

Nakicenovic

2017 #36

NET Power Breaks Ground on
Demonstration Plant for Oxyfuel,Nantural Gas ZEP, La Porte, Texas

Nakicenovic

2017 #37

Possible transformational technologies

Nakicenovic

2017 #38

“Learning” Through Scale

Economies of scale, US wind turbines
Nakicenovic

Source: Grubler et al. ALPS-2012t2017 #39

Nakicenovic

Pictures: Courtesy of Charlie Wilson

2017 #40

Fast vs. Slow Transformations
slow

fastsystemic

discrete technologies

novel concepts,
formative phases

market-readysubstitutes

lumpy technologies& infrastructures

granular technologies& social networks

early adopting markets

late adopting markets

weak adopter benefits(mainly less externalities)

strong adopter benefits,high relative advantage

co-ordination problems,
vested interests

strong co-ordinationand policy direction

Nakicenovic

Source: Grubler et al, Energy Research …, 20162017 #41

Global Coal Power Plants

1627 GW and further 1112 GW are in planned to beinstalled until 2035 which gives a total of 2739 GW

Nakicenovic

Source: IEA, 20152017 #42

Urban Embodied Emissions
Compared to Global Budget of 800 GtCO2 for 2oC

Nakicenovic

Source: Müller et al., 20132017 #43

SuperGrid and MagLev Trains

Nakicenovic

2017 #44

North-African Desertech

Nakicenovic

Source: Hasni, 20112017 #45

TNT Agent-Based Models
Evolution of TechnologicalComplexity: Technologies asagents in co-evolution andre-combination of systems

Technology Development andAdoption: Type of agents:
producers, consumers, institutions,
all heterogeneous & interacting

Main implications for Technology Transitions and SDGs:
High complexity slows transitions
and requires strong coordinationand lengthy formative phases

Social interactions and coordination key
in fast transitions, social network andpeer effects as accelerators

Ma, T., Grubler, A., Nakicenovic, N., Arthur, W.B.: 2008,
Technologies as agents of change: A simulation model of the evolving
complexity of the global energy system, IR-08-021, IIASA.

Grubler, A., Krey, V., Ma, T., and McCollum, D, 2016,
New Approaches for Modeling Energy End-use
Technology Adoption and Behavior in IAM Frameworks.
RITE, Kyoto, Japan.

Nakicenovic

2017 #46

Technology Diffusion Compared(# of cellphones, people with access to safe sanitation)
K = 4.3-6.4 Billion

K = 1.2-1.4 Billion
1.6E+09

7E+09

OECD

Non-OECD

1.4E+09
1.2E+09

6E+09

Toilets
Δt = 72 yrs

5E+09

1.0E+09
4E+09
8.0E+08
3E+09
6.0E+08

Cellphones
Δt = 13 yrs

4.0E+08

2E+09

1975

2000

2025

Cellphones
Δt = 11 yrs

1E+09

2.0E+08
0.0E+00
1950

Toilets
Δt = 52 yrs

2050019501975

20002025

Why could cell phones reach 4 billion people within 10 years
while 4 billion still lack access to safe sanitation after 100 years?

Nakicenovic

Data: ITU, 2014, WB WDI, var. vols.

2017 #472050

THANK YOU

naki@iiasa.ac.at