Foresight, the SDGs and international innovations around political governance

Foresight, the SDGs and international innovations around political
governanceIntroduction
The Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) framework has provided the world with auniversal opportunity to create a better future. The 17 Sustainable Development
Goals that were signed in September 2015 have been in effect since the 1st January
2016. Now that the first year has passed, 2017 provides an opportune time toassess whether the framework is generating new practice in governance.
The SDG Framework envisages a significant shift away from existing business as
usual practice in order to fulfil the 2030 vision of a secure, equal and prosperous
world. This paper will focus on part of the goal SDG 16 (“inclusive, effective andaccountable institutions”) which is considered to be key to unlocking thetransformative potential of the rest of the framework. SDG 16 demands new
governance innovations in order to be achieved, and this paper examines the extent
and nature of such innovations across different countries – with a focus on the use ofStrategic foresight approaches. Case studies provide examples of where new
governance practice is being developed and where it is being overlooked. In order toprovide a practical resource to governance innovators and SDG advocates, the endof this paper provides the principles of strategic foresight implementation, based on
the features of effective country innovations.
Methodology
The findings in this paper are based on case studies, conferences and semistructured interviews with government, UN staff, civil society leaders anddevelopment experts, with particular geographic focus in: Latin America (Dominican
Republic, Colombia and Costa Rica), where work was undertaken with the United
Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean; Finland (incollaboration with the Committee for the Future of the Parliament of Finland); Laos(in collaboration with the United Nations Development Operations Coordination
Office) and the UK.
Rather than employing a random sampling strategy, interviewees were explicitly
selected based on their expertise. Over fifty interviews were conducted, primarily
through telephone conferences or face-to face conversations where possible.
Strategic foresight and SDG 16
The post-2015 agenda has brought renewed energy and interest in the Strategic
foresight approach to the development sector. This timing is far from a coincidence.
In an uncertain world with long-term threats like climate change, experts andgovernments have reflected on how traditional policymaking and government
structures fall short, given that “few contemporary challenges can be confined to one
policy area and that a single-issue focus is in many instances insufficient”.1 The role1

Van de Pol, P. et al. Foresight as a Strategic Long-Term Planning Tool for Developing Countries. 2014. United
Nations Development Programme

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Foresight, the SDGs and international innovations around political governanceof government is shifting and in order to effectively plan for the future in a strategic
way, expert institutions such as the Institute of Development Studies recommend
states engage in Strategic foresight as a matter of survival. In the words of Kate
Bingley:“Foresight has an important role to play in international development, toensure that policies are robust and forward-looking, and that development
organisations and institutions are resilient and agile, able to cope with change
and manage increasing uncertainty and complexity in order to tackle theglobal and local development and humanitarian challenges ahead.”2
Strategic foresight is defined as a systematic way to examine alternative ‘futures’and apply the insights to shape today’s activities for the better.3 Using Marie
Conway’s definition: “foresight is the capacity to think systematically about the future
to inform decision making today. It is a capacity that we need to develop as
individuals, as organisations, and as a society”4. Although thinking about the future
itself is nothing novel, the way we do it must be carefully assessed.
Over the past 30 years, two key approaches to strategy development haveinfluenced the way Strategic foresight is implemented. These approaches were
pioneered by Michael Porter and Henry Mintzberg respectively5. Porter’s approach
can be summarised as “command and control” (where organisations set direction
from the top-down along inflexible and time-bound lines), whereas Mintzberg’s
centres on “emergent” methods (where organisations harness their internal andexternal stakeholders to develop a more bottom-up, adaptive and diffused
approach).
As our world has becoming increasingly recognised as needing a complex adaptive
systemic approach, there has been a slow shift from Porter’s rigorous, analytical andcentralised strategic planning process to Mintzberg’s school of thought. Mintzberg
champions an approach where ideas and processes emerge, information comesfrom multiple levels of an organisation and plans are adaptive, iterative and “culture”
based.
This adaptive, participative approach, which is complementary to ‘systems thinking’frameworks, is understood to serve governments better in complex environments
and in the face of complex problems6. An example is David Snowden’s Cynefin: adecision-making framework developed to describe the evolutionary nature ofcomplex systems, helping determine operative contexts that enable effective choices
and decisions7. It is this type of approach to thinking about the future that ischampioned by the SDG framework.
2

Bingley, K. A Review of Strategic Foresight in International Development. 2014. Institute of Development
Studies3
Tully, C. Applying Foresight and alternative futures to the United Nations Development Assistance Framework.
United Nations Development Group, 2016.
4
Conway, M. ‘Foresight: an introduction’, Thinking Futures: http://thinkingfutures.net/wpcontent/uploads/TFRefGuideForesight1.pdf, p2, 2015.
5
Mintzberg, H. co-authored with J.Jorgensen, Emergent Strategy for Public Policy, 1987 Canadian Public
Administration 30(2): 214-229
6Bowman, K. et al. Systems Thinking - An introduction for Oxfam Programme Staff. 2015.
7
Snowden, D and Boone, M. ‘A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making’, Harvard Business Review. 2007.

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Foresight, the SDGs and international innovations around political governance

Conversations about the future are critical for the SDG Framework to be effective;
however, the manner in which these conversations are had must break away fromthe status quo. The development of the SDGs was based on a complex-adaptive
systems view of policy-making that replaced the technocratic, linear, top-down
approach of the Millennium Development Goals. The process for developing theSDGs (detailed beneath) reflects the systemic, interrelated and uncertain nature of
the world, and underscores the point that governments cannot do this kind ofplanning alone. These are the fundamental tenets of Strategic foresight and indicate
the need for governments to innovate too, which is further underscored by SDG 16.
Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16 in particular focuses on the critical need for“inclusive, effective and accountable institutions” at all levels. With this as its
essence, SDG 16 plays a catalytic role within the Sustainable Development agenda,
presenting the need to re-shape institutions and governments, and build corecapability for delivering on 21st century governance. SDG 16 mandates a transferfrom regular practice and structures towards dynamic innovation, with the intention ofembedding strategic foresight processes within governments worldwide. As Melissa
Leach from the Institute of Development Studies said in her statement to the UK
government, “[if the goals are to be reached] business as usual is no longer an
option”.8 Added to this are three core principles of the SDG framework:
1) The first principle is universality. Universality within the SDGs means that
all countries are accountable to others, regardless of their standing. This
principle also means that no country is exempt from the SDG agenda. Everynation state has areas for improvement and key areas where more attention isneeded.
2) The second principle is interdependence. When approaching the SDGs, it
is parochial and unproductive to only focus on one issue. A holistic, complex
systems approach is needed to tackle interrelated and indivisible issues likecyber crime, obesity and long-term unemployment. As well as the interwoven
nature of our global markets, for example, the responsibility of UK citizens for
consuming products that create pollution in China.
3) The third principle is participation. This is core to the transformative natureof the SDGs (particularly SDG 16). If decisions and planning are left solely inthe hands of governments, it will only perpetuate the existing business-asusual approach and forego meaningful inclusion of the public and civil society.
Citizens have valuable assets, including ideas, energy and resources, thatneed to be mobilised.
The underlying drive behind the growth of interest for Strategic foresight, atransformation in the role of government, and these three principles, is the fact thatthe traditional government mode of command and control is not working any more.
At the domestic level (both national and local) in most countries, public confidence
crises and political failures have resulted in a climate of mistrust, political apathy andreduced accountability between government and citizens. Effective governance,
8

UK Parliament. Report: UK Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. 2016.

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Foresight, the SDGs and international innovations around political governancetherefore, requires including strategic foresight as an explicit step in strategicplanning.
The changing nature of global public policy challenges and opportunities, including
the increasingly complex environment, requires government to re-envisage itself as asystem steward rather than as a command-and-control hierarchical centre9. As aresult, and in order to meet the SDGs, the purpose of government becomes one of a
facilitator, not a commander, who implements long-term strategies that are legitimate
through their accountability to their citizens and other states. In this respect, SDG 16,
with its accountable institutions, becomes the motor of the whole SDG framework. In
order to lead by example, the UN’s design process for the Sustainable Development
Goals was much more participative, drawing on contributions from thousands ofpeople all over the world. One of the participative processes leading to the SDGs,
titled ‘The World We Want’, is a key example of this10.
Conversations, innovation and new practice around Strategic foresight haveemerged as a result of this SDG framework. Before now, Strategic foresight theory,
methodology and practice have traditionally focused on developed countries’
experience. As discussed in the next section, however, interest and innovation is
now growing for Strategic foresight methods and tools that are relevant fordeveloping country contexts (including bridging the link with the humanitarian field).
Moreover Strategic foresight provides a framework for developing states to regain
ownership of national development narratives, and to find locally suitable andresilient implementation strategies of development visions. Effective governance anddecision-making – especially around public collective challenges and opportunities,
require three capabilities associated with emergent approaches to policy-making11:
openness, future-focus, and coherence.
The SDG framework has created a whole new challenge, agenda and social mission
for the world, and this progress has generated excitement for an empowering,
shared global agenda. Furthermore, SDG 16 has established the need for dramaticchanges in governance practice. However, the extent to which countries areinnovating for change, and to which the three principles of universality, participationand interdependence outlined above are being realised, dramatically varies.
Where change is happening
Some countries are using the SDG framework to innovate, and are thereby resolving
the challenge of how government can reform to be successful in achieving outcomesin a complex and turbulent world. Some regions and nation-state governments haveestablished units and capabilities to enable longer-term thinking, strategic planningand implementation. Practice internationally has traditionally been patchy. In Latin
America and the Caribbean, foresight approaches have already been used for sometime, but now their use is being systematised and expanded. Notably, this has not
9

Tully, C. Stewardship of the Future. Using Strategic Foresight in 21st Century Governance. 2015. Singapore:
United Nations Development Programme Global Centre for Public Service Excellence10
http://www.beyond2015.org/our-story
11

Mintzberg, H. co-authored with J.Jorgensen, Emergent Strategy for Public Policy. 1987. Canadian Public
Administration 30(2): 214-229

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Foresight, the SDGs and international innovations around political governancejust been happening at the city or industry level, but has stretched to a national
scale: central government and ministries of planning have been innovating andmaking progress too. For example, in 2013 the Argentinian government ran a major
foresight exercise that focused on 2026, featuring many different provincial officials
from across the country12.
The SDG framework has been pushing this innovation up a level. One example isfrom Costa Rica. Costa Rica’s 2015-2018 national development plan was created inconcordance with the SDG 2030 vision13. Throughout the creation of this national
development plan, Costa Rica engaged several other actors – from regional
governments to citizens – in a foresighting process. They explored alternative anddesired visions of the future, drivers of change, risks and opportunities facing thecountry from many different perspectives. The Dominican Republic has also aligned
their national development plan and vision with the SDGs and the 2030 vision, andcreated a National Commission for Sustainable Development. This Commission
featured Ministers and ministry delegates, public bodies, civil society, development
agencies and the private sector14.
Similarly, the Colombian government created a high-level interagency commission
mandated to fulfil the 2030 vision. In addition, the national development strategy
incorporates the SDGs and is linked to the OECD accession strategy. It recognisesthat everyone needs to be able to contribute and participate (“Pasar de un enfoquepor demanda a uno de oferta”) and focuses on ensuring that to make sure nobody isleft behind: “necesidades de desagregación de indicadores: región, sexo, edad,
etnia, etc.“15Strategic foresight exercises form a key part of the planning processes for fulfilling
the SDGs, especially when it comes to the need to incorporate others’ ideas andenergy through participative, co-ordinated conversations about the future. Multiple
actors and agencies are engaged in the Dominican Republic’s strategic plan, fromthe government to the private and civil sectors, and as Juan Temístocles Montás
states: “Cómo la vamos a implementar: – Coordinación intra e inter-intersectorial yentre los actores (Gobiernos, sector privado, sociedad civil) – Sin sinergias, es muy
difícil lograrlo (“nada sin ustedes, nada sin nosotros”)”9. Strategic foresight is a
powerful, effective way of harnessing a diversity of views and conversations to
inform a unified approach.
However, Latin America is not the only region embracing strategic foresight. Laos
provides another example of participative strategic foresight being implemented indevelopment planning efforts. Using FutureScaper, a cloud-based collective
12

Ministry of Federal Planning. Los Territorios Del Futuro: Escenarios prospectivos del territorio Argentino y sus
regiones hacia el año 2026. 2013.
13
Sanchez, O. “Estrategia y arreglos de implementación de la agenda ODS en Costa Rica”, Presentation at the
ECLAC International Seminar: The Sustainable Development Goals and Building Futures for Latin America andthe Caribbean, Santiago, Chile, 18-19 May 2016.
14
Juan Temístocles Montás, “Sobre los retos de la Agenda 2030 para el Desarrollo Sostenible en República
Dominicana”, presentation at the ECLAC International Seminar: The Sustainable Development Goals andBuilding Futures for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile, 18-19 May 2016.
15
Elizabeth Arciniegas, “Departamento Nacional Planeación: Comisión Interinstitucional de alto nivel para elalistamiento y la efectiva implementación de la agenda de desarrollo 2030 y sus Objetivos de Desarrollo
Sostenible”, presentation at the ECLAC International Seminar: The Sustainable Development Goals and Building
Futures for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile, 18-19 May 2016.

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Foresight, the SDGs and international innovations around political governanceintelligence platform that helps organisations to crowdsource strategic conversations,
Laos’ UN Country Team gained wider input on development planning16. The aim of
this exercise was to engage UN staff, government, civil society, development
partners and the general public in the exploration of development issues and futurechallenges.
Within Europe, Finland is leading on institutional transformation, though Germany
and the Netherlands also have nice examples of innovation (including in the latter at
the city governance level). Finland has a Parliamentary Committee for the Future,
which prepares studies on futures, proposes different options, highlights dangers
and builds scenarios using methods of future research17. Within the broader context,
Sustainable Development is a core priority for Finland, evidenced by the fact that thePrime Minister is the Chair of the Sustainable Development Committee. Finland’seight areas of commitment to the 2030 vision are integrated with the Sustainable
Development Goals, and with the recognition that the means for implementing thegoals are just as important as the goals to be achieved. Moreover, the SDG
consultative process has led to new efforts in areas that were identified as needing
focus – loneliness, future work and the blue economy.
These examples provide promising evidence that governments have taken the SDG
framework on board and directly embedded and mainstreamed it. These innovations
to put strategic foresight into practice are excellent, but in reality not all foresight
initiatives will be sustainable. Within institutions, change takes a long time to
implement and the tendency to return to the status quo is always strong.
Nevertheless, countries are trying along various different fronts (including
participation, foresight, interaction and interdependence between different policy
areas) to improve their institutions for the better.
Where the SDGs are not being applied
Neither the level of development nor the nature and duration of democratic legacy
seem to have any impact on whether a country innovates or not. Some developed
countries, principally the UK, have not yet demonstrated any interest in transforming
governance practice using the SDGs; likely because the Government seems tointerpret the Sustainable Development Goals as for the benefit of other lessdeveloped nations. Evidence of this comes in a speech from a Government Ministerin 2015, who declared that the UK had already met its SDG commitments: whengiving evidence to the UK’s Environmental Audit Committee, Minister Oliver Letwin
stated “As a matter of fact, we don’t have very much difficulty in meeting the goals.
The problem is that large parts of the world do have very considerable difficulty
meeting the goals.”18 This assumption undermines the entire SDG framework,
primarily disregarding the key principle of Universality, but is also a missed

16

Tully, C. Applying Foresight and alternative futures to the United Nations Development Assistance Framework.
2016. United Nations.
17
Tiihonen, P. "Http://www.futurejustice.org/blog/guest-contribution/guest-article-A-Committee-For-TheFuture/". A Committee For The Future. 2017. Web: 11 Feb. 2017.
18
House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee. The Government’s Approach to Sustainable
Development: Inquiry. 2015.
“http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/environmental-auditcommittee/the-governments-approach-to-sustainable-development/oral/26027.html”. Online: 11 Feb 2017

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Foresight, the SDGs and international innovations around political governanceopportunity for the UK itself. The SDGs are designed for the benefit of all countries:
to transform domestic policy and strengthen participation.
In contrast, Finland, as mentioned above, fully commits to the Sustainable
Development Goals, despite being in several top ten global development indexes. It
is consistently ranked as one of the world’s most literate, happy and prosperous
nations19. Nevertheless, Finland recognises that development and innovation arepermanently necessary.
Although the UK was once ahead in this area of governance innovation, the current
direction of travel is backwards, and civil service staff are losing the skills, institutions
and culture that enable strategic foresight to be implemented. As a consequence,
there is no established structure within the UK government to take forward
discussions and thinking about the SDGs at a national level; for example, where
Finland has the Committee for the Future, the UK lacks designated resource to takeon this type of national strategizing.
Nevertheless, there are areas of excellence in the UK. For example, the Welsh
Assembly have a ministerial position of ‘Commissioner for Future Generations’,
whose mandate is to advise, promote and encourage sustainable ways of working20.
This position was created as part of the Future Generations Act, passed in 2015 inorder to ensure sustainable development was core to government functioning.
Furthermore, the UK’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office commissioned a review
and open consultation with government staff on how it could improve its processes
and structures. The ‘Future FCO’ report, commonly known as the ‘Fletcher Review’was published online in May 2016 and contains honest insights generated byparticipative responses from staff.
The SDG framework is evidently valuable in driving innovation around the role ofgovernments in a complex, uncertain and rapidly transforming 21st century. SDG 16
in particular prompts governments to address prominent and widespread issues
such as gaining participation and trust from citizens, preparing for upcoming
technology changes and the impact of artificial intelligence on work. Nevertheless,there are a number of key principles of strategic foresight and the SDG frameworkthat demonstrate excellence – and that advocates can use, together with case-study
examples – to drive impact.
Principles of implementing strategic foresight and the SDGs
When looking at new practice across various countries, there are six issues andqualities that stand out across countries implementing strategic planning well21.

19

Helliwell, J., Layard, R., & Sachs, J. World Happiness Report 2016, Update (Vol. I). 2016. New York:
Sustainable Development Solutions Network; UNESCO Statistics. Adult and Youth Literacy. September 2015.
Online: www.uis.unesco.org/datacentre.; World Atlas. The Richest Countries In The World.
“http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-richest-countries-in-the-world.html”. Online: 11 Feb 201720
The Wales We Want. 2016. “http://thewaleswewant.co.uk/future-generations-commissioner”. Online: 11 Feb
2017
21
From research conclusions from Tully, C. “Strategic Foresight and the Sustainable Development Goals in Latin
America and the Caribbean” to be printed in 2017 for ECLAC

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Foresight, the SDGs and international innovations around political governance

These are:
1. A well-designed system for cross-governmental coordination andengagement, including leadership at the highest level (chaired by thepresident or prime minister) and including external relations ministries
as well as domestic departments.
2. Building on, incorporating and going beyond the existing strategic plansof the country in a substantive way, rather than either replacing them or
replicating them by merely relabelling former plans. This creates
congruency, particularly within reporting systems, and reinforces preexisting plans as well as identifying new areas for reform and progress.
This forms part of the process to ‘nationalise’ the SDGs.
3. Proactively incorporating wider good governance agendas and projects(e.g. open government, decentralisation, transparency and open data,and gender equality).
4. External participation, including regional and sector consultations thatare structured to include the development of targets and indicators, aswell as visions to 2030, roadmaps and plans.
5. Citizens are a critical and core part of the process, including
consultations around the future but also reporting back throughout theprocess. The SDGs are seen as a focus area for government
communication with citizens.
6. Scoping out opportunities for international cooperation across borders,on specific SDGs and across the full agenda.
Whether, and to which degree, countries decide to commit to innovation is neverguaranteed. However, there has never been a greater, or clearer incentive to do sothan the SDG framework and 2030 vision. Development of the inclusive, effective
and accountable institutions that SDG 16 demands will not happen overnight, andcannot be added on to existing practice. To reach the SDGs and transform state
institutions along the way requires a total overhaul of cultures (including those ofdenial), behaviours and processes, and a focus on long-term thinking. Nevertheless,the SDGs are the ideal catalyst to begin these changes across the world.

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Bibliography
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Sostenible”, presentation at the ECLAC International Seminar: The Sustainable Development Goals andBuilding Futures for Latin America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile, 18-19 May 2016.
Beyond 2015. http://www.beyond2015.org/our-story. Online: 11 Feb 2017.
Bingley, K. A Review of Strategic Foresight in International Development. 2014. Institute of Development
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Bowman, K. et al. Systems Thinking - An introduction for Oxfam Programme Staff. 2015.
Conway, M. ‘Foresight: an introduction’, Thinking Futures. p2, 2015.
Helliwell, J., Layard, R., & Sachs, J. World Happiness Report 2016, Update (Vol. I). 2016. New York:
Sustainable Development Solutions Network.
House of Commons Environmental Audit Committee. The Government’s Approach to Sustainable
Development: Inquiry. 2015.
“http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/environmental-auditcommittee/the-governments-approach-to-sustainable-development/oral/26027.html”. Online: 11 Feb 2017
Ministry of Federal Planning. Los Territorios Del Futuro: Escenarios prospectivos del territorio Argentino ysus regiones hacia el año 2026. 2013.
Mintzberg, H. co-authored with J.Jorgensen, Emergent Strategy for Public Policy, 1987 Canadian Public
Administration 30(2): 214-229
Sanchez, O. “Estrategia y arreglos de implementación de la agenda ODS en Costa Rica”, Presentation at
the ECLAC International Seminar: The Sustainable Development Goals and Building Futures for Latin
America and the Caribbean, Santiago, Chile, 18-19 May 2016.
Snowden, D and Boone, M. ‘A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making’, Harvard Business Review. 2007.
Tiihonen, P. "Http://www.futurejustice.org/blog/guest-contribution/guest-article-A-Committee-For-TheFuture/". A Committee For The Future. 2017. Online: 11 Feb. 2017.
Tully, C. Stewardship of the Future. Using Strategic Foresight in 21st Century Governance. 2015.
Singapore: United Nations Development Programme Global Centre for Public Service Excellence.
Tully, C. Applying Foresight and alternative futures to the United Nations Development Assistance
Framework. 2016. United Nations.
UK Parliament. Report: UK Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. 2016.
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Feb 2017.
Van de Pol, P. et al. Foresight as a Strategic Long-Term Planning Tool for Developing Countries. 2014.
United Nations Development Programme

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