Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department, JICA
1. Basic Information
Country: India
Project Name: Delhi Mass Rapid Transport System Project Phase 3 (III)Loan Agreement：October 29, 2018
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Urban Transportation Sector in India
While rapid urbanization has progressed in recent years in India, and while
the number of registered automobiles and motorcycles has been rapidly
increasing, public transportation infrastructure has not improved. In major cities
such as Delhi and Mumbai, traffic congestion accompanying expansion ofdemand for road traffic is a serious problem, and economic losses andautomobile pollution such as air pollution and noise are getting worse. (e.g. PM
10 concentration in the National Capital Territory of Delhi is 261 μg/m3 while thecriteria in India is 60 μg/m3 [Source: Central Pollution Control Board]) For thisreason, the development of public transportation systems is essential to mitigate
traffic jams and to improve the urban environment.
In order to deal with the above problems, the Government of Indiaemphasizes the development of public transportation systems from the viewpointof safety/energy efficiency/social environment conservation, in addition to dealing
with the demand for transportation due to the recent economic growth. The
Government of National Capital Territory (NCT) of Delhi plans to improve urban
traffic with the introduction of a large-volume high-speed transportation systemaiming to mitigate congestion of the conventional public transportation system, toimprove traffic conditions, and to alleviate air pollution in the National Capital
Territory of Delhi.
The first and second plans of the Delhi Mass Rapid Transport System havecompleted, and service has started for all the lines. The first plan aims atalleviating congestion in the commercial area and the governmental office area inthe city center. Lines 1-3, which run from the city center to radiating lines, coverapproximately 65 km. The second plan aims at preventing overconcentration in
the city center. Lines 1-3, which run toward the outer perimeter of the NCT Delhi,were extended and lines 4-6 were built; and the plan covers approximately 125km. In order to strengthen the functions of commuter railways in the future, theGovernment of NCT Delhi puts weight on constructing new lines and extending
the existing lines in taking urban transportation policy measures and measuresagainst urban environmental issues.
(2) Japan and JICA’s Policy and Operations in the Urban Transport Sector
Japan’s Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) setsstrengthening industrial competitiveness as a priority area, and analyzes that it isnecessary to improve important infrastructure, which would contribute to raisecompetitiveness of the manufacturing industry and other industries in India. JICA
Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018) also analyzes that it is necessaryto improve public transportation services in urban areas. This project ispositioned as assistance for responding to rapidly advancing urbanization, which
is listed as the task that JICA should address in the above-mentioned priority field.

The Project is consistent with these policies and analysis.
(3) Other Donors’ Activity
The World Bank supports the Mumbai Urban Transportation Project (roadand suburban railway improvement) and the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor
project. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is providing institutional and otherassistance to India’s railway sector, especially for organizational reforms of IndianRailways.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to cope with the increase of traffic demand in Delhiby expanding the mass rapid transportation system, thereby promoting regional
economic development and improving urban environment, through mitigation of
traffic jams and decrease of pollution caused by increasing motor vehicles.
(2) Project Site/Target Area: The National Capital Territory of Delhi(3) Project Components
As the third phase of the mass rapid transportation system construction project in
the National Capital Territory of Delhi, an underground railway (about 56 km) anda surface railway (about 60 km) will be constructed and vehicles will be procured.
ODA loan part is as shown in the below.
1) Civil works (Extension of Line 3, underground section of Line 8, andunderground stations (However, orbital laying is applicable to all lines
including ground and elevated parts))
2) Traction & power supply, signaling & telecommunication system andautomatic fare collection system, Ventilation, air conditioning equipment, etc.
3) Rolling stocks (total: 785)
4) Consulting service (bidding assistance, construction supervision, etc.)(4) Estimated Project Cost
695,565 million yen (of which, the ODA Loan amount is 330,479 million yen, anda subsequent ODA Loan of 53,675 million yen)(5) ScheduleApril 2012-December 2022 (129 months in total) The commencement date ofservice (February 2021) shall be the time of the Project’s completion.
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India
2) Executing Agency: Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Limited: DMRC
3) Operation and Maintenance agency: Same as 2)(7) Collaboration and Division of Roles with Other Projects and Donors
1) Japan's assistance activities: The consultant employed by the Delhi MassRapid Transport System Project (1997-2005) and the Delhi Mass Rapid
Transport System Project (Phase 2)(2006-2010) is providing training
programs inside and outside of Japan on the operation and maintenance ofurban transportation to DMRC. Experts were also dispatched to DMRC for
the purpose of developing capacity in the fields of vehicle maintenance andsafety management (2007-2008).
2) Other development partners’ assistance activities: None in particular(8) Environmental and Social Consideration/Poverty Reduction/Social Development
1) Environmental and social considerations: As shown in the Appendix.
2) Cross-cutting Issues:(Climate change) As the introduction of the regenerative braking system

which is Japan's energy-saving technology and the progress of modal shiftby this project is contributing to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions,this project can contribute to mitigating climate change. Climate change
mitigation effect (estimated GHG emission reduction) is about 28.71 million
tons (CO2 equivalent: total reductions by Phase 1-3 projects from 2002 to2032 including this project). In addition, the Project is registered with theUnited Nations as a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project.
(Consideration for persons with disabilities) In accordance with thedomestic laws of India, station buildings and passenger cars (elevators,toilets, announcements, braille blocks, wheelchair space, etc.) that also take
into consideration for usability for the elderly and persons with disabilities
are adopted. At the same time, station staff, crew members, and all otherfrontline staff have been provided with customer care training.
3) Gender Category: GI(S)--Gender Informed (Significant) (Gender Activity
Integration Project)<Description of activities and reason for classification> The Project
incorporates introduction of female-only vehicles, setting of priority seats forpassengers who need support including women, installation of CCTV
cameras in the station buildings and inside the vehicles, use of low hanging
straps, etc. in order to make women feel safe and comfortable when they
use the subway. Based on the reasons mentioned in the above, the Projectis classified into a Gender Activity Integration Project.
(9) Other Important Issues: None in particular
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicator)

Indicator
Operating rate (%/year)
Running distance (1,000 km/day)Number of Running Train (number/day)
Volume of Transportation (millionpassengers-km/day)Income from Passenger (million rupees/day)(2)Baseline(Actual valuein 2011)-Target (2022)[Expected value2 years after projectcompletion]
92
264.51
915

-

40.99

-

97.60

Qualitative effects: Improvement in traffic situations in the National Capital
Territory of Delhi, alleviation of traffic pollution, alleviating climate change,
improvement in convenience through ensuring the scheduled movement, andeconomic development of the National Capital Territory of Delhi.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
Under the conditions indicated below, the economic internal rate of return (EIRR)
and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) will be 24.04% and 6.93%,respectively.

[EIRR]
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance expenses (both excluding tax)
Benefits: Effect of reducing cost for operating and maintenance of transportation
systems and roads, effect of shortening traveling time for users, effect of reducing
traffic accidents, and pollution mitigation effectProject Life: 30 years[FIRR]
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance expenses
Benefits: Fare income, advertisement revenue, and real estate development
revenue
Project Life: 30 years
5. Prerequisites / External Factors(1) Prerequisite: Expansion of the bus network operated by the executing agency.
(2) External Factors: Deterioration in political and economic conditions and natural
disasters in India and the areas surrounding the project site
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
From the results of the ex-post evaluation of the India "Delhi Mass Rapid
Transport System Project (I)-(VI)," a divergence between the target value and theactual value of the number of passengers is cited as an important issue. It is pointed
out that it is desirable to set more realistic target values by improving the method ofpredicting the number of passengers as the basis.
In the Project, based on the lesson learned above, the more realistic target valueof the number of passengers is set through taking the number of passengers on
existing lines into consideration after investigating the traffic volume in the target area,
the income level of the residents, transportation means, etc.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project, being consistent with the development issues and development
policies of the country and cooperation policies and analysis results of the Governmentof Japan and JICA, will contribute to balanced economic development in the National
Capital Territory of Delhi through mitigation of traffic congestion and reduction of traffic
pollution in the area. Therefore, the Project is to contribute to Goal 9 of the SDGs,“Industry Innovation and infrastructure,” and it is highly necessary to support theproject implementation.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
Same as 4. (1) - (3)(2) Timing of the Next Evaluation
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after project completion

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AppendixCategory: A
Reason for Categorization: This project falls into the railway sector and has
influential characteristics, both being shown in the JICA Guidelines forEnvironmental and Social Considerations (proclaimed in April 2010).
Environmental Permit: Preparation of a report of Environmental Impact
Assessment (EIA) concerning this project is not obliged by the domestic laws ofIndia. However, a report was formulated in August 2011, and revised inNovember 2013. EIA of Najafgarh - Dhansa bus stand section, on which analignment change of the existing scope was made, was formulated in March2018.
Anti-Pollution Measures: At the time of construction, countermeasures such as
proper management of pollutants, construction vehicles, and heavy equipment
are taken. Regarding impacts on the ground during the construction, no serious
impacts of land sinking are anticipated, as adoption of shield tunneling method
prevents loosening of the ground and inflow of underground water. After theproject starts, soundproof wall against the noise, installation of elastic rubber
layer under the orbit against vibration, installation of effluent treatment facility at
the vehicle base, and other mitigation measures will be introduced asanti-pollution measures.
Natural-Environment: The target area of the project is located in the urban area
without national parks or natural forests, and the scheduled line will run almost
along the existing roads. Accordingly, no special impacts on the naturalenvironment are expected. However, some part of the scheduled line will run
near a bird sanctuary. In order to prevent strikes, mitigation measures such ashorn blowing in the surrounding area are adopted.
Social Environment: Acquired land area for this project is 528,806 m2 (including
private land area of 14,230 m2), and 435 households and 1,101 residents wererelocated. DMRC held discussion with targets of land acquisition andresettlement so that procedures were taken according to the resettlement plan
formulated for the purpose of satisfying the conditions of the JICA Guidelines, theRight to Fair Compensation and Transparency in Land Acquisition, Rehabilitation,and Resettlement Act, and the resettlement policy of the Government of NCT
Delhi. All procedures for land acquisition, resettlement, and compensation,including those for the Najafgarh - Dhansa bus stand section (acquired land area:
9,243.9 m2 with no private lands and requiring no resettlement) and excepting
one section, were completed. Regarding Mayur - Bijar - Trilockpuri section, landacquisition (3,500 m2 with no private lands), resettlement (108 households and272 residents), and compensation for them have not been completed. However,consultation with the targets has also progressed, and the procedures areexpected to complete by September 2018. Regarding informal residents, inaddition to compensation for housing, the right to use the land located near Delhiand relocation expenses have been provided.
Other/Monitoring: A part of the lines in this project is planned to run near a clusterof historical spots in the downtown of Delhi, impacts of vibration on the historicbuildings give cause for concern. DMRC has already received construction
approval from the National Monument Authority of India, but voluntarily
implements mitigation measures such as use of vibration reduction mats andintroduction of springs. In this project, DMRC monitors land acquisition andresettlement during construction, and the construction contractor monitors noise,vibration, soil, air quality, water quality, waste, etc. under the supervision ofDMRC. When the line is placed in service, DMRC will monitor noise, vibration, airquality, water quality, etc. In addition, DMRC will employ a specialized external
consultant with its own funds, in order to conduct monitoring of land acquisition,resettlement, and relocated persons’ living conditions after relocation.
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