Risk Management Strategy of Climate
ChangeALPS International Symposium
RITE, February 27, 2015
Taishi Sugiyama
Coordinating Lead Author, IPCC AR5/WG3Senior Researcher, Central Research Institute of Power Industry

Issue recognition
Pathways to below 2℃ through pledges at COP21
would be challenging.
The possibility to mitigate below 2℃ will be small.
COP21 is not ‘the end’ but ‘the beginning’→ How could we risk-manage the world exceeding
2℃
1Statements
 The impacts of global warming are not wellelucidated.
→ Proposal for improving communications on“extreme weather”“Time axis” is crucial for risk management→ Proposal of “warming velocity target”→ Proposal of adaptive management→ Reconsideration of the roles of geoengineeringand CCS
2The Possibility to Mitigate below 2℃
will be Small.

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Scenarios: Global GHG emissions

4Sectoral emissions in scenarios

5Bioenergy and CCS

CO2 is absorbed by planting,electricity is generated byburning wood and CO2 is stored
in the ground.

Global CCS instituteTwo Assumptions in Scenarios Technological Innovation： “A number of mitigation technologies will
progress and diffuse“
In 2℃ scenario, bioenergy and CCS are assumed to diffuse in thesecond half of the 21st century as large as the current coal and oil havediffused.
 International cooperation: “The world works together toward emission
reductions”
IPCC scenarios depend on numerical models which oversimplify the realworld. Resources and efficiency/cost of technology are taken intoaccount. However, concerns about security and international competition
are never taken into account.
→ It is clear that miraculous changes are crucially required, viewed fromthe status quo. This means “the challenge is huge, huge, huge”, as Prof.
Edenhofer, Co-Chair of Working Group III stated in the press release.

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The Impacts of Global Warming are notWell Elucidated.

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“Expert judgments” - “Relatively highrisks”...Absolute risk levels are unexplained

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IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM
About specific sectoral environmental impacts,several figures in SPM are considered; Fig SPM.5（Impacts on ecosystems）
 Fig SPM.6（Impacts on fishery industry）
 Fig SPM.7（Impacts on food production）
 Notation in this presentation:
 Red：impressions from figures Blue: Speaker’s opinions
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Impacts on Ecosystems（Fig. SPM.5）

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Preparation: Climate velocity
Climate velocity （km/decade）
 Speed at which global warming makes anisothermal shift from the equator to the poles Slow in mountain areas and fast in flat areas
 Maximum speed at which species can move
 Speed at which species can move with globalwarming.
 climate velocity＞ maximum speed at which
species can move, then extinction …
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Maximum speed at whichspecies can move

Climate velocity

Higher than 4℃@2100
3～4℃@2100
2～3℃@2100

Lower than 2℃@2100

Large scale
Impacts on ecosystems （SPM.5） extinction!?
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Figures in TS
show the past
climate velocity(1970-2010） issimilar toRCP6.0 (3～4℃）

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1970-2010 flat areas
3～4℃@2100
1970-2010 global average

In case of 3-4 ℃ rise, the speed is as fast as the past.
Any species have never come into extinction due to global warming

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Impact on Fishery Industry （Fig. SPM.6）

16Significant reductions infisheries ?
Estimates under anumber ofassumptions.
“Low confidence” in
WGII AR5
No mention in SPM

Impacts on fishery industry（SPM.6）
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Impacts on Agriculture （Fig. SPM.7）

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Impacts on agriculture（SPM.7）

The grain yield reduction!?
Adverse effect sizes should not bemeasured by the number of papers
19Poor harvest ofwheat and corn!?
Although the yieldof wheat/corn intropical will bereduced,
the one of rice will
not be reduced
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Key Problem of CC env. risk assessment
Much literature say:

“Others things being
equal,
human-induced climatechange increase risks”
but
1. If “other things” dwarf “human-unduced-CC”,other policies are more important than CC policy.
2. Risk increases – trivial. The size of risk matters.
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Adverse Effects of Climate Change＜＜
Anthropogenic Nature Modification

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Land
subsidence
ranged to 4m
during 50 yearsin Tokyo.

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Sand beach extinction?

90% of sand beachis lost with the 1m
sea level risehttps://www.env.go.jp/earth/cop3/ondan/eikyou4.html

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Carry-out locations(Sagami reservoir)

Carry-in locations(Chigasaki seashore)28Dr. Takaaki Uda“Manual for Beach Nourishment”

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Adverse Effects of Climate Change ＜＜Social Issues

30What is Tuvalu risk？

http://blog-imgs-31origin.fc2.com/s/c/i/scienceplus2ch/photo_6_convert_20100628123101.jpg

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Before flood

Source: Japan Center for Climate Change Actions,
http://www.jccca.org/

After flood

Source: Japan Center for Climate Change Actions,
http://www.jccca.org/

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http://www.noguchi-ken.com/M/imgs/3/7/37663587.jpg

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MIRAB economics
 MIgration
 Remittance Aid Bureaucracy

Ultimate isolate island economy
Beyond the existing borders,“A new imagery of nations is required.”(Prof. Izumui Kobayashi, Osaka Gakuin University )34

What does “risk increase” mean?
“Relative risk” isjudged by “experts”

Representation of poor contents.
The degree of risk is crucial.
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More Frequent Extreme Weather?
Extreme weather ＝ once every 30years－＞・ naturally occurs
・ occur more frequently, if there aretrends・ is not directly linked to the risk

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“Risk increase”“Extreme weather”

Expression using “WeatherAnalogue”“More frequent
extreme weather” inTokyo“Tokyo’s temperature has
become as that of Kagoshima of
100 years ago”

temperatureProposal

Kagoshima

Extreme weather!

Tokyo
100 years ago

30 years ago

presenttimeBy global warming, typhoons of Tokyo: are “at risk ofintensification”: Unclear communication→Proposal→ → →Expressions, “as strong as the current level of Kyushu’s”
or “as humans have never experienced” should be used.

http://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%8F%B0%E9%A2%A840

“Time Axis” in Risk Management

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Carbon budget: No time axis
42Rate of climate change (°C yr –1)“Climate velocity”: Time-axis
Higher than 4℃@2100

Past
3～4℃@2100
2～3℃@2100
Lower than 2℃@2100

Even though the temperature rises 3-4 ℃ by 2100 , warming speed is as similar as the past.

Added notes based on IPCC AR5 WG2 Fig 4-5

A time axis of extreme events（IPCC AR4 SYR)
Greenland ice sheet, 19℃-4.6℃ rise, contributes tosea level rise of 7m. Complete elimination will takemillennia.

Ice sheet loss on polar land: meters of sea level riseoccurs over millennial time scales（More rapid sealevel rise over century time scales cannot beexcluded.)
44A time axis of society / economy
１７８９
１８６８
１８８５
１９１４
１９３９
１９４５
１９８９French Revolution
Meiji Restoration
Invention of the automobile
The World War I
The World War II
Invention of the atomic bomb
The collapse of the Soviet Union
The Tiananmen Square protests
１９８９ Invention of the Internet
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A time axis of anthropogenic nature modification46

A time axis of anthropogenic nature modification

http://quercus.ashita-sanuki.jp/c1323.html
47Proposal of Adaptive Management48

１．５℃ ＜ ２×ＣＯ２ ＜ ４．５℃

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Global surface temperature (Deviations from 1961-90)

http://www.aori.utokyo.ac.jp/research/news/2013/20130718.htm
lClimate model(CMIP5)

Climate model(CMIP3)

Observed value[year]
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Rate of climate change fo (°C yr –1)

Adaptive management of climate velocity target

Higher than 4℃@2100

3～4℃@2100
2～3℃@2100
Less than 2℃@2100

Even though the temperature rises 3-4 ℃ by 2100, warming speed is as similar as the past.
Added notes based on IPCC AR5 WG2 Fig 4-5

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=Food.Chain2&hl=ja52

Transition of dominant Japanese pelagic fish catch 1905~

http://nrifs.fra.affrc.go.jp/intro/doutai/Index-labold.htm

53Adaptive Management of climate velocity target
・ A target that is more directly connected to the risk of climatechange than the absolute value target
・ Appropriate way, since there are large uncertainties innatural science & social science and inexpensive solutions
are unknown.
・ Dependent on the natural variability (such as decadaloscillation)
・ Due to the inertia of climate system and social system,
climate velocity can not be changed rapidly and is not muchdifferent from the absolute value target after all?

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Reconsideration of Geoengineering
Adaptive Management/Measures to Lower Climate Velocity

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SRM： Aerosol injection into the stratosphere
Source: USGS
Pinatubo volcanic eruption in the Philippines

Source: Blackstock et al (2009)

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Ocean CCS
Table TS.7. Fraction of CO2 retained for ocean storage as simulated by seven ocean models for 100years of continuous injection at three different depths starting in the year 2000.
Injection depthyear"100% CO2 storage“ has been required up to now. However, if we regard CCS
as " technology to buy time ", the value will skyrocket "Half-life" is 100 years
for the 800m, 300 years for the 1500m, and more than 500 years in the3000m.

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Risk Psychology of Climate Change

58Safety is the very nature of changes
Average life expectancy transition (1890-2013), Japan(Prewar values are based only on complete life table,discontinuity )1891-1894
Male: 42.80
Female: 44.30

1947
Male: 50.06
Female: 53.96

1921-1925
Male: 42.06
Female: 43.20

MaleFemale

http://www.garbagenews.net/archives/1940398.html
59Tokyo, 600 years ago（image）

http://www.soundofhope.org/node/295662
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Tokyo, present61Tone River moving to the east:
Large scale modification of the River

http://npo-tmic.org/kouzui/index5.html

Safety is the very nature of changes.

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The End Point Confusion of the risk assessments= "Change" Itself Should not Be a Risk..
Confusion?

Temperature
rise

Diverging
Climate change
EnvironmentalchangeHazard（≠risk）

Life/economic loss

Risk
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Is “Change” itself the object of concern?

http://jp.photaki.com/picture-illustrationscience_149827.htm

Is “safety in the middle of change” safe enough?

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For More Details...
Books

Wedge HPＩＥＥＩ HP

climatepolicy.jp

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