Ex-Ante Evaluation Paper (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department, JICA
1.

Name of the ProjectCountry: India
Project: North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 4)
Loan Agreement: March 27, 2020
2.

Background and Necessity of the Project(1)
Current State and Issues of the Road Sector in India
In India, the National Highways Development Project (hereinafter referred toas “NHDP”) was initiated by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways(hereinafter referred to as “MoRTH”) in 2001. Under the initiative, roads havebeen developed between large cities including the “Golden Quadrilateral” ofDelhi, the capital city, Mumbai in the west, Kolkata in the east, and Chennai inthe southeast. Major highway networks have been gradually improving, such as
through road construction work on all planned sections (7,522km) of the 2001
yearly plan that was completed in 2015.
On the other hand, the pavement ratio of all roads in the northeastern region
remains at 51.8% (national average: 71.4%), and the ratio of roads with two or
more lanes among national highways remains at 35.6% (national average:68.3%) (according to Basic Road Statistics of India 2016-2017), and slope anddrainage development as countermeasures against landslide disasters has been
delayed in many areas of the region. The delay in road development has
interfered with stable transportation of people and goods in the region and has
become a factor for the delay in economic development. The GDP per capita in
the region (2015-2016) is 76,540 Indian rupees, which is far lower than thenational average, 112,432 Indian rupe (according to the statistics data of theReserve Bank of India). For this reason, the Government of India set thecorrection of regional gaps as one of the highest priority issues.
The National Highway 208 (hereinafter referred to as “NH208”), the target of“North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 4)”(hereafter “the Project”), locates in the state of Tripura. The state shares borders
with Bangladesh and is exporting agricultural products, mainly bamboo, fruit,and mineral resources such as marble etc. to Bangladesh, and is importing
construction materials such as processed stone material, bricks, tiles, andcement etc. from Bangladesh. National Highway 8 (hereinafter referred to as“NH8”) (total length: approx. 170km) has been functioning as an artery of suchtrade. However, since some issues have been pointed out for NH8 such as thefact that it takes time to travel on precipitous roads and sharp corners as NH8
passes through mountainous zones, and there is always the risk of road blockowing to a partial collapse of a slope in the rainy season.
NH208 (the section between Kailashahar and Khowai) that is the target of theProject now has a narrow road width and bad road surface condition, but
generally passes through a flat terrain, so it is expected to be developed as astable distribution network. The development of NH 208 and functioning of it as
an alternative road network of NH8 contributes to the promotion of smoother
distribution in and out of the region, thus the Project is prioritized in road sectorof India.
(2)
Japan and JICA’s Road Sector/Northeast Region Cooperation Policy andthe Positioning of the ProjectCountry Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) formulated by theGovernment of Japan states that it intends to “develop important infrastructure
which is necessary for the securing of continuous investment and high growth
while it is required to realize comprehensive and stable high economic growth”. It
has also set “enhancement of connectivity” as a priority area and is going tosupport the development of transport infrastructure so that the connectivity isenhanced in domestic major industrial cities, economic zones, and between
regions with an eye to removing bottlenecks in the infrastructure related toinvestment and economic growth. It is also going to promote collaboration
toward further enhancement of connectivity in the northeast region, confirmedbetween the leaders of Japan and India.
Moreover, an international road network will be formed that passes throughthe state of Tripura and reaches Chattogram, the second largest city in
Bangladesh, which is also the largest harbor city, as well as Matarbari, where a
deep-water port will be constructed, if the southern section (between Khowaiand Sabroom) of the NH208 in the state is developed in the next phase inaddition to the Project. Then, the transportation of people and goods will beactivated by the improvement of connectivity between regions, and is expected
to contribute to the realization of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) Initiative.
Furthermore, bridge rehabilitation assistance has been provided in the corridor
section on the side of Bangladesh connected from Sabroom (between Ramgarh(the name of border on the side of Bangladesh) and Baraiyarhat) through theloan

assistance“Cross-borderRoadNetworkDevelopment

Project(Bangladesh)” and the road from Matarbari Port to Chakaria on the National
Highway 1 of Bangladesh is planned to be developed through the loan
assistance “Matarbari Port Development Project (Bangladesh)”, and thereby ahigh synergistic effect with these yen loan projects is expected.
The Project contributes to the enhancement of connectivity, which is one ofthe priority areas in JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018) and isgoing to support the development of infrastructure with an eye to removal of thebottlenecks to investment and growth in terms of infrastructure. Accordingly, theProject is consistent with the policies and analyses.
(3)
Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank has already implemented the Assam State Road Project(State Road 46) in the North Eastern region (from March 2012 to March 2018)
and is implementing the Mizoram State Road Project (from June 2014 toOctober 2020). The Asian Development Bank is providing assistance to theNorth Eastern region through the North Eastern State Roads Investment
Program (October 2012 to December 2016) and phase 2 (May 2014 to March2020.
3.

Project Description(1)
Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to improve the connectivity in North Eastern
Region of India through establishing and improving National Highway 208(Kailashahar - Khowai section) in Tripura state, thereby promoting regionalsocio-economic development(2)
Project Site / Target Area: State of Tripura(3)
Project Components
1) NH208: improvement and widening of 2-lane roads (including bridges,drainages, and bypasses) (approx. 80km), establishment of a new bypass(approx. 5km) in Khowai, and maintenance.
2) Consulting services (construction supervision, maintenance support(including slope safety measures), and environmental and social
consideration, etc.)(4)
Estimated Project Cost
Estimated Project Cost: 20,780 million yen (of which, the ODA Loan amount is
14,926 million yen)(5)Schedule

March 2020 - March 2029 (109 months in total). The Project will be completed
upon the commencement of services (March 2024).
(6)
Project Implementation Structure
1)
Borrower: President of India
2)
Guarantor: N/A
3)
Executing Agency: National Highways and Infrastructure Development
Corporation Limited (hereinafter referred to as “NHIDCL”)
4)
Operation and Maintenance Agency: The operation and maintenanceafter the completion of the Project is performed by the contractor and a privatecompany to which NHIDCL contracts out the work under the supervision ofNHIDCL. Moreover, a consultant for the construction supervision andmaintenance support is employed by NHIDCL and provides technical support.
Expenses of operation and maintenance are paid with the fund allocated fromthe MoRTH to NHIDCL in a stable manner.
(7)
Collaboration with Other Schemes and Donors1) Japan’s Assistance Activity:
The road improvement and widening of the National Highway 54 and 51 inMeghalaya and Mizoram were performed in the loan assistance “NorthEast Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 1)” (L/Asigned in March 2017), and establishment of a new bypass of National
Highway 54 and road improvement and widening of the National Highway
40 were performed in the same state in “North East Road Network
Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 2)” (L/A signed in March 2018).
Moreover, a bridge was constructed over Brahmaputra River connecting
Assam and Meghalaya in “North East Road Network ConnectivityImprovement Project (Phase 3)” (L/A signed in October 2018). It hascontributed to the enhancement of connectivity of major highways in theregion along with this Project.
2)
Other Donors’ Assistance Activity: N/A(8)Environmental and Social Consideration / Cross-Sectoral Issues / GenderClassification
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason of Categorization
This Project falls into Road sector located in a sensitive area and is likely

to have significant adverse impact due to its characteristic under the JICA
guidelines for environmental and social considerations (April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit
An environmental impact assessment (EIA) report on this Project wasprepared in January 2017 by NHIDCL, updated in October 2019, and wasapproved in November, though its preparation is not required under thedomestic laws of India.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures
During the construction, mitigation measures are planned to be taken suchas water sprinkling, waste disposal in the disposal site designated by thegovernment, reutilization of surplus soil, maintenance of construction
heavy equipment, and installation of noise barrier, etc. in order to meet thedomestic emissions standards as well as environmental standards of thecountry in terms of air pollution, water pollution, waste, noise, vibration, etc.
Moreover, countermeasures are planned to be taken such as road surface
maintenance and limitation on alarms, etc. for the noise and vibration
when the services are commenced.
⑤ Natural Environment
The target area of the Project is located 26 km away from Gumti Wildlife
Sanctuary and approx. 1km away from Rema-Kalenga Wildlife Sanctuary.
The acquisition of permission and approval for the development in theproject area does not fall into the requirements specified by relevant laws
such as Environmental Protection Act, etc., so it is not required. Moreover,no particular migration corridor of rare species of wild animals has been
observed in the target area of the Project, and a large part of the area has
been converted into cropping or paddy fields, so no critical natural habitatof rare species seems to be contained within it. Furthermore, approx. 80haof trees will be felling down as the road widening and establishment areperformed, and the Forest Department of the state is planning to performalternative afforestation in an area that is approx. two times larger.
⑥ Social Environment
The Project requires land acquisition of 86.51ha and involuntary
resettlement of 61 households, and compensation as well as assistancewill be performed in accordance with Resettlement Action Plan incompliance with domestic procedure in India as well as the JICA
Environmental Guidelines. In target area of the Project, scheduled tribesthat falls according to the Constitution of India are residing, andappropriate consideration has been given in the public consultations,
Resettlement Action Plan and livelihood restoration program, etc.
Moreover, no particular objection to the Project has been confirmed in thepublic consultations concerning the Project.
⑦ Other / Monitoring
During the construction, under the supervision of NHIDCL, contractors, etc.
perform the monitoring of air quality, water quality, waste, noise, and soilerosion, etc. NHIDCL performs the monitoring of noise and soil erosion,etc. during operation. NHIDCL and a local NGO perform the monitoring ofsite acquisition and resident transfer, and NHIDCL, Forest Bureau of thestate, and a contractor perform the monitoring of ecosystems.
2) Cross-Sectoral Issue
The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction effect is expected fromtraveling performance improvement, etc. through the Project, which
contributes positively to climate change (mitigation measures). The expectedclimate change mitigation effect of the Project (rough estimation of the GHG
emissions reduction) is approx. 2050t/year (as of 2025).
3) Gender Category: ■GI (S) (Gender activity integration project)<Activities/Classification Rationale>
The Project is planning to set occupations and time zones based on the needs
and aptitudes of women, social backgrounds of target areas, etc. in order tosecure the employment opportunities of women in construction work.
(9)

Other Important Issues: N/A4.

Targeted Outcomes(1)
Quantitative Effects
1) Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Indicator

Baseline(2019)

Target (2026)[2 Years after
Completion]

Average travel time in the target section
(min)

205

103

Average travel cost in the target section

24 (passengervehicles)

15 (passengervehicles)

60 (trucks)

40 (trucks)

1,940

7,650

1,875

4,680

95

3,255

21 (note 2)0(rupee/km)
Annual average daily traffic volume inthe target section (vehicles/day)Number of passengers in the target
section (x 1,000 people/year) (note 1)
Amount of freight in the target section (x1,000 tons/year) (note 1)
Annual number of closure days in thesection (over 24 straight hours, day)

(Note 1) The number of passengers is calculated by the breakdown of theaverage daily traffic volume in the target section multiplied by 365 days andcapacities of each vehicle (bike: 1.5, passenger vehicle: 3, small-sized bus: 20,ordinary bus: 40). The amount of freight is calculated by the breakdown of theaverage daily traffic volume in the target section multiplied by 365 days andthe maximum loading capacities of each freight vehicle (light commercialvehicle (LCV): 1 ton, 2-axle truck: 3 tons, 3-axle truck: 13 tons, multi-axle truck
and trailer: 15 tons).
(Note 2) This is based on the operation records by the road administrators.
(2)
Qualitative Effects
Enhancement of Connectivity in and out of the country and with otherregions, and the social economic development of the region, etc.
(3)Internal Rate of Return
According to the following preconditions, the Project’s Economic Internal
Rate of Return (EIRR) will be 12.5%. The Financial Internal Rate ofReturn (FIRR) is not calculated because the fees are not collected.

[EIRR]
Cost: Construction costs, operation and maintenance costs (both excludingtaxes)
Benefit: Reduction in the vehicle travel costs, reduction in the travel timecosts
Project Life: 25 years
5.

External Factors and Risk Control(1)

Preconditions
Consensuses of regional residents and relevant institutions are(2)continuously made for land acquisition.
External Factors
The political and economic conditions of India and the target surrounding
areas of the project are not adversely affected, and no large-scaledisasters occur.

6.

Lessons Learned from Past Projects and Application to the Project

A lesson has been learnt from the experience of previous case examples,such as “North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 1)”
in India that show us the necessity of following up the land acquisition process.
In concrete, it is important to follow carefully the inter-cooperation between
implementation agency and the state government for smooth land acquisition,with consideration to the fact that it takes more time than expected for the landacquisition process.
Necessary procedures for the Project, including the public consultations withlocal residents, have been performed so far for the land acquisition andrelocation. However, it is proposed to take measures, where appropriate, so thatthe results of monitoring do not violate the domestic laws of India as well as theJICA guidelines taking account on the periodic reports from implementation
institutions regarding the result of monitoring of the progress status of landacquisition and livelihood condition after relocation.
7.

Evaluation Results

The Project is consistent with the development issues and policies of India,
and assistance policies of Government of Japan as well as JICA. It contributes tothe SDGs Goal 9, “Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive andsustainable industrialization and foster innovation”. Consequently, JICA’s
support for the Project is highly necessary.
8.

Plan for Future Evaluation(1)

Indicators to be Used

As indicated in sections 4. (1) to (3).
(2)
Timing of the Next Evaluation
Two years after the project completion
End