Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
1. Name of the ProjectCountry：The People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Project：Small Scale Water Resources Development Project (Phase 2)
Loan Agreement: June 29, 2017
Loan Amount：11,853 million Yen
Borrower：The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh）
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of Poverty Reduction and the Agricultural/Rural Development
Sector in Bangladesh
In recent years, the People's Republic of Bangladesh has achieved steady economic growth,and the population of the poor has continued to decrease, but many people are still living
below the poverty line, with 31.5% of its total population or approximately 48 million
classified as poor (World Bank, 2010). In particular, the poverty rate for rural areas, where
about 70% of the population lives, is 35.2%, higher than that for urban areas, which stands at
21.3%. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries account for 15.6% of total GDP but absorb a large
percentage of labor, with 47.5% of the population working in these industries (World Bank,2010). There are growing income disparities between urban and rural areas as the country's
economy develops, and against this backdrop, the Government of Bangladesh is prioritizing
the increase of income in rural areas in its policies and is working to reduce poverty in theseareas. In Bangladesh, one of the world's leading rice consumers, rice production is directly
linked to the lives of people in rural areas and constitutes an important factor for the stabilityof the country.
A look at agricultural productivity in Bangladesh indicates that the acreage for boro rice, astaple wet crop, nearly doubled, and its production tripled, from 1990 to 2015. This is mainly
attributed to the spread of groundwater irrigation technology after the Green Revolution in1970. In addition, the introduction of high-yielding varieties helped to increase rice yields perunit area, which in turn led to a steady increase of annual rice production. Combined withother efforts, this allowed the country to achieve nearly 100% food self-sufficiency. However,
due to factors such as decreases in agricultural land caused by the progress of industrialization
and urbanization (about 20% decrease from 1989 to 2012), growing demand for food due topopulation increase, and vulnerability to climate change, the government is strongly required
to continue improving the productivity of limited arable land going forward in order to ensure
the food security that it has identified as one of its goals.
In the agricultural sector of Bangladesh, the effective use of groundwater as water resources iswidespread as 95% of irrigation uses groundwater, but there is concern about decreases inusable groundwater mainly because of a decline in groundwater levels from excessive
pumping and the exhaustion of the water supply source from lack of maintenance andmanagement. Under such circumstances, the policy of the government is to actively make themost of surface water, but it is not easy to do so effectively because Bangladesh consists ofalluvial plains with over 90% of its land only nine meters above sea level at most. In addition,
floods frequently occur—partly due to effluents from neighboring countries—inundating
about one-fourth of the land every year during the rainy season, which sees about 80% of theannual precipitation, while the amount of rainfall decreases substantially during the dryseason, causing water shortages. In order to use land effectively, stabilize agricultural
production, and improve agricultural productivity, it is necessary to prevent agricultural land
and the like from being flooded during the rainy season, and develop water resource
management facilities to effectively utilize the rainwater from the rainy season by storing it
for the dry season on a nationwide scale. These facilities will also contribute to diversifying
farmers' means of livelihood such as fish farming operations and increasing their income.
(2) Development Policies for Poverty Reduction and the Agricultural/Rural Development
Sector in Bangladesh and the Priority of the Project
In its 7th Five-Year Plan (FY2016/17–FY2020/21), the Government of Bangladesh identifies"substantial poverty reduction" and "comprehensive growth" as its priority goals andemphasizes the efficient and effective use of surface water as a strategy to ensure foodsecurity, stabilize food production, and adapt to climate change. In addition to strengthening
agricultural production capabilities, the government also lists the reinforcement of farming
and farmers' access to markets, and the increase of farmers' income as important goals. In its
National Agriculture Policy (2013), the government stated that it would strive to achievesustainable agricultural growth, reduce poverty, and ensure food security mainly by improving
grain productivity.
This project aims to improve agricultural productivity and increase farmers' income by taking
measures such as providing the following: infrastructure for small water sources management;
agri-business-related facilities and equipment; rural infrastructure for agricultural productdistribution; and training and technical support for Water Management Cooperative
Associations. The project is positioned to contribute to the realization of the policies andstrategies that the government has prioritized. It covers the following four divisions ofBangladesh: the Dhaka, Mymensingh, and Sylhet Divisions, all of which were supported bythe Japanese ODA loan for the Small Scale Water Resources Development Project, a past
project that was approved in 2007; and the Rangpur Division, which has the highest poverty
rate in the country and has been newly added in order to spread the achievements of the past
project more widely.
(3) Japan and JICA's Policy and Operations in Poverty Reduction and the Agricultural/Rural
Development Sector
In the Country Assistance Policy for Bangladesh (June 2012), the Japanese government listed"overcoming the vulnerability of society" as a priority area, and in the JICA Country Analysis

Paper for Bangladesh (April 2013), it stated that it would work to reduce poverty withparticular emphasis on agricultural and rural development and that by developing water
resource management facilities, roads, markets, etc., it would provide assistance in reducing
poverty in rural areas, improving farmers' income, and increasing productivity and produce awider variety of crops in order to ensure a stable food supply. This project is in line with thepolicies and the analysis.
Previous support activities include the above-mentioned Small Scale Water Resources
Development Project for the Local Government Engineering Department, Ministry of LocalGovernment, Rural Development and Cooperatives (LGED). In this project, 242 sub-projects
were implemented, leading to results such as increasing the income of farmers who benefited
from the project and ensuring food security mainly by increasing agricultural production
volume by about 20–50%. Other assistance programs included Technical Assistance Related
to the ODA loan for Participatory Water Resources Management through Integrated RuralDevelopment (2012–2017), and the dispatch of Rural Infrastructure Development &Management Advisors to LGED at the policy level, which has continued since 2000.
(4) Other Donors' Activity
The Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Dutch government, and other donors implemented
Phase 1 (1996–2002) and Phase 2 (2002–2009) of the Small Scale Water Resources
Development Sector Project, and its successor the Participatory Small Scale Water Resources
Sector Project (2010–2018) is currently being implemented. These projects have helped todevelop small scale water resource management facilities, strengthen the ability of theexecuting agency, and establish sustainable water resource management with participation byresidents. The JICA project will collaborate on the aforementioned projects to address various
initiatives, particularly in the areas of reinforcing the maintenance and management systems,
revising the operational guidelines, and ensuring gender mainstreaming within LGED. This
project avoids overlapping the sub-project areas supported by other donors and theirassistance programs during sub-projects selection.
(5) Necessity of the Project
As mentioned above, this project is in line with Bangladesh's development challenges andpolicies, as well as with the assistance policies and the analysis of the Government of Japanand JICA. It also contributes to improving the production of agricultural products, increasing
farmers' income, and reducing poverty through the development of water resource
management facilities, thus contributing to the achievement of the first goal of the Sustainable
Development Goals (SDGs), which is to end poverty in all forms everywhere, and the second
goal, which seeks to end hunger, achieve food security, and improve nutrition and promotesustainable agriculture. In addition, it contributes to the achievement of the fifth goal of SDGs,
which is to achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls, by promoting theparticipation of women in the decision-making process of union activities and supportingwomen in improving their income and finding employment. Furthermore, it is expected tocontribute to the achievement of the sixth goal (Ensure availability and sustainable
management of water and sanitation for all) and thirteenth goal (Take urgent action to combat
climate change and its impacts) of SDGs by developing water resource management facilities
to ensure the efficient and effective use of surface water as measures against water shortages,
floods and other disasters caused by climate change. Therefore, the necessity for JICA tosupport the Project is substantial.
3．Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to increase agricultural production and farmers’ income byproviding infrastructure for small scale water resources management, agri-business-related
facilities/equipment and rural infrastructures, and training and technical supports to Water
Management Cooperative Associations in 4 Divisions namely Dhaka, Mymensingh, Sylhet
and Rangpur of the country, thereby contributing to poverty reduction and food security as
well as social economic development.
(2) Project Site / Target Area
Dhaka, Mymensingh, Sylhet and Rangpur Divisions(3) Project Components
1) Construction of small scale water resources management facilities (flood control,drainage improvement, surface water storage, irrigation), agri-business-related facilities/equipment and rural infrastructures (rural road etc.)
2) Consulting Services (subproject selection assistance, bidding assistance, construction
supervision, etc.), Institutional Development assistance of Water Management
Cooperative Associations (WMCAs) and others(4) Estimated Project Cost (Loan Amount)
16,117 million Yen (Loan Amount: 11,853 million Yen)
(5) Schedule
June 2017- March 2024 (82 month in total) The Project will be completed when all facilities
are placed in services (March 2023).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2) Executing Agency: Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) under Local
Government Division, the Ministry of Local Government, Rural Development andCooperatives

3) Operation and Maintenance System: The operation and maintenance of the Project is
conducted by LGED and WMCA
(7) Environmental and Social Consideration / Poverty Reduction / Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: FI② Reason for the Categorization: The Project is classified as Category FI, according to theJICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations (April 2010), since its
subprojects cannot be specified prior to JICA’s approval of funding and are expected tohave a potential impact on the environment.
③ Other/Monitoring:
In the Project, while receiving support from consultants engaged through the Japanese ODA
loan, LGED will classify the categories of sub-projects in accordance with the Bangladeshi
legal system and the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations
published in April 2010 and take the actions required for the category concerned. Category
A projects are not included in the sub-projects.
2) Promotion of Poverty Reduction: The Project is to increase agricultural production andfarmers’ income by providing infrastructure for small scale water resources management
and others, and training and technical supports in the rural areas with high poverty rate,
thereby contributing to poverty reduction.
3) Promotion of Social Development: The Project will include activities such as training topromote women participation in decision making process, supports for income generation
activities for women, employment promotion for poor women, formulation of gender action
plan, planning and implementation of subproject development through participatory
approach and others.
(8) Collaboration with Other Donors
JICA will work with ADB and other donors, which help LGED develop small scale water
resources, to address initiatives such as strengthening LGED's ability to carry out projects,
improving maintenance and control systems, revising the operational guidelines, and ensuring
gender mainstreaming within LGED, mainly by sharing the progress in project
implementation and the results of technical support.

4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Indicator

Baseline*1(Actual Value in 2017)

Target (2025) *1【Expected value 2 years after
project completion】

Gross Annual Average
FarmIncome((Yen)/Year/Household)(to be calculated)(to be calculated)

Cropped area benefitedby the Project (ha)(to be calculated)(to be calculated)

Number of farm
beneficiaries benefitedby the Project(Household)(to be calculated)(to be calculated)

Rate of WMCA
formulated (%)(to be calculated)(to be calculated)

Collection Rate ofOperation andMaintenance Cost (%)(to be calculated)(to be calculated)

Production volume of(to be calculated)(to be calculated)(to be calculated)(to be calculated)cereal(t/year)

Production volume offish (t/year)*1: Data to be collected at baseline survey for around 20 subprojects after subprojects are
identified2) Internal Rate of Return
The Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) and the Financial Internal Rate of Return(FIRR) are not calculated since subprojects cannot be identified prior to the start of theProject.
(2) Qualitative Effects
1) Strengthening of resident associations through water management association activities
and awareness increase for maintenance of the facilities
2) Improvement of nutrition condition in rural areas through agriculture and fisherydevelopment
3) Poverty reduction, food security and social economic development in the targeted areas(livelihood improvement of farmers, increase of income source for women, etc.)

5. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions: None
(2) External Factors: None
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects(1) Lessons Learned from Past Projects
JICA implemented the earlier Small Scale Water Resources Development Project inBangladesh. In the process to examine its sub-projects several times at the local and centrallevels, it fully analyzed details of the work performed and matters to be examined in each stepand learned that it is necessary to prevent the overlapping of examinations and shorten thescreening process.
It has also been confirmed that providing agricultural guidance to farmers and appropriate
maintenance and management training helps to realize the effects of water resource
management facilities and contributes to the improvement of farmers' income.
Furthermore, the results of the ex-post evaluation of the Agrarian Reform Infrastructure
Support Project in the Republic of the Philippines revealed that the livelihood of farmers wasimproved by helping to develop infrastructure related to the rural economy such as irrigation
facilities and agricultural roads linked to markets as well as by supporting rural farmers instrengthening their organizational abilities from the viewpoint of comprehensive ruraldevelopment.
(2) Application of Lessons Learned to the Project
The policy of the Project is to take measures such as revising the project guidelines created
and applied in past projects in order to clearly define details of the work in each step of thesub-project examination process, as well as to strive to achieve greater project efficiency for
seamless implementation mainly by strengthening the staff competency of related agencies.
Another policy is to help to realize the effects of water resource management facility
development through the provision of farming guidance and appropriate maintenance andmanagement training to farmers, to review the content of training for water management
unions in earlier projects so that such reviews lead to the improvement of farmers' income,and in particular, to improve the guidance programs and their implementation methods bymaking them more practical (such as offering field exercises and interactive workshops), thus
ensuring that water resource management facilities produce even greater results. Moreover,when conducting training, JICA plans to encourage LGED's training units to cooperate withother government agencies such as the Department of Agricultural Extension and theDepartment of Fisheries to effectively use their expertise, training curriculums, and facilities
and improve the training system so that training is provided effectively down to the farmer'slevel.

7. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used: Gross Annual Average Farm Income ((Yen)/Year/Household),
Cropped area benefited by the Project (ha), Number of farm beneficiaries benefited by theProject (Household), Rate of WMCA formulated (%), Collection Rate of Operation andMaintenance Cost (%), Production volume of cereal (t/year), Production volume of fish(t/year)(2) Timing: Two years after the project completion