Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
１．Name of the Project（１）Country：India（ ２ ） Project: The Project for Climate Change Response and Ecosystem
Services Enhancement in Rajasthan（３） Project Site/ Target Area：State of Rajasthan（Population: about 68.5
million, Census 2011）
Loan Agreement: February 20, 2024
２．Background and Necessity of the Project（１）Current State and Issues of the Biodiversity Conservation and Forest Sectorand Priority in India
India's ecosystems are rich in diversity due to their geographical characteristics.
These diverse ecosystems perform a wide range of functions as “ecosystemservices” for local residents, such as water source cultivation, sediment runoffcontrol, soil conservation, flood control, and provision of forest resources tosecure their lives and livelihoods. On the other hand, excessive consumption offorest products such as firewood and charcoal wood in the past has led todeforestation and degradation, with forest cover falling to about 19% in 1987
(Forest Survey of India, 1987 (hereinafter referred to as “FSI”)). The Indian
government set the goal of restoring forest cover to 33% in the National Forest
Policy formulated in 1988, and as a result of its efforts in forest conservation andthe establishment of national parks and wildlife sanctuaries, forest cover has
recovered to approximately 22% by 2021 (FSI, 2021). However, deforestationand forest degradation pressures continue to exist against the background ofrapid population growth and urbanization. In addition, approximately 85% ofIndia's land area is considered highly vulnerable to natural disasters (Governmentof India announcement on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) under theParis Agreement, 2015), and there are concerns that changes in rainfall due toclimate change will further intensify the severity of weather-related disasters.
The state of Rajasthan in northwestern India has the largest area in India(340,000 km2) and is divided into western desert areas including the Thar Desert
and eastern non-desert areas based on geographical conditions such as annual
rainfall and temperature variations. Annual rainfall in the desert areas averages
100 mm/year and 650 mm/year in the non-desert areas (2021, Government ofRajasthan), which is significantly lower than the national average (1,177 mm/year,2021, India Meteorological Department). Desert areas are particularly harshenvironments for the growth and habitat of plants and animals, with a low forested
area of approximately 5% and severe wind erosion of the soil. The forested landarea in the non-desert zone is about 11%, but the challenge is the increasingpressure on natural resources due to overconsumption of forest products by thegrowing population and excessive grazing by the increasing livestock population(2021, Government of Rajasthan). Regarding biodiversity, desert areas haveplants and animals unique to the region due to seasonal temperature differences
and low rainfall, while non-desert areas have a greater annual rainfall than desert
areas, resulting in a variety of plant species. However, some of this richbiodiversity is in danger of extinction.
These challenges are also made more serious by climate change. For example,
the inability of ecosystems such as forests to adapt to changes in rainfall patterns
is slowing the growth of forests and other ecosystems and reducing their function
and productivity (Government of Rajasthan, 2021). Furthermore, this situation
can be viewed as a socio-economic impact on the poor and women, given thatthe state's poverty rate (about 30%) is the 8th highest in India (NITI Aayog, 2015)
and that many of the poor, including the Scheduled Tribes, and women inproactive roles such as fetching water and collecting non-wood forest products,
live mainly in rural areas (State Forest Department, 2021) and are dependent on
natural resources including forests for their livelihood. In light of this situation, thestate takes ecosystem services seriously, emphasizing the maintenance andimprovement of ecosystem functions and climate change countermeasures(adaptation and mitigation) that take advantage of these functions. The state also
actively encourages the participation of women in agriculture and forestry.
The “Rajasthan Forest Policy 2023” sets the state's own goal of increasing
forest cover to at least 20%, and states that it is necessary to prevent
desertification through planting trees and restore the functioning of ecosystemservices by strengthening biodiversity conservation. The “Rajasthan Climate
Change Action Plan 2022” also states that community-based biodiversity
conservation is important to reduce vulnerability and impacts of climate change.
In addition, the government of Rajasthan has established the “Rajasthan
Women's Policy” in 2021 to promote gender equality, and since 1991, Japan has
provided assistance to the state through joint forest management for afforestationand the establishment of wildlife sanctuaries. Although these support efforts have

been successful, there is still a need to expand the area and further improve thequality of the forests in light of the above issues, as well as to take into accountclimate change.
The Project for Climate Change Response and Ecosystem Services
Enhancement in Rajasthan (hereinafter referred to as the “Project”) will
implement a new research-based effective forest conservation approach in linewith the above-mentioned policies, while incorporating the experience andmethodology of the previous ODA Loans to the forest sector in the state(hereinafter referred to as the “preceding projects”), and to promote climatechange response (adaptation and mitigation), including strengthening theorganizational structure of the State Forest Department, and to enhance
ecosystem services through biodiversity conservation and restoration activities
and livelihood improvement. It is positioned as an important project in India’s
biodiversity conservation and forestry sector and in the State of Rajasthan.
（２）Japan’s and JICA’s Policy Cooperation and Operations in the Biodiversity
Conservation and Forest Sector (especially in relation to key foreign policies suchas the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Partnership (FOIP))
At COP26 held in November 2021, Japan participated in the Glasgow LeadersDeclaration on Forest and Land Use, which calls for halting forest loss and landdegradation by 2030 and strengthening efforts to conserve forests and promote
their restoration. In addition, at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the UnitedNations Convention on Biological Diversity held in December 2022, Japan andother countries adopted the Kunming-Montreal Biodiversity Framework, a newglobal biodiversity goal (Post-2020 Biodiversity Framework). The Project alsoaligns with “Addressing Challenges in an Indo-Pacific Way,” one of the pillars ofthe new plan for a “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” from a climate and environmental
perspective. In addition, Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016),
formulated by the Government of Japan, positions “supporting sustainable andinclusive growth” as one of its priority areas and clearly states that Japan will workon the provision of assistance to increase the incomes of the poor and promotesupport for the biodiversity including forestry and the forest sector, and thedisaster managementsector to tackle environment and climate change issues.
The JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018) also analyzes the needfor measures to promote appropriate use of natural resources for inclusive growth
in rural areas, leading to appropriate conservation and use of forest resources.

The JICA Global Agenda for Natural Environment Conservation states that thegoal is to conserve the natural environment and pursue the sustainable use ofnatural resources in line with the international environmental frameworks forsocio-economic development, and to enable future generations to enjoy various
services from the natural environment. In JICA Global Agenda for Climate
Change, JICA states that the natural environment, including forests, plays a majorrole in carbon sequestration, and the Project is in line with these policies andanalyses. As of October 2023, 31 ODA loans totaling 313.9 billion yen have been
approved for the biodiversity conservation and forest sectors in India, including 5ODA loans totaling 44.9 billion yen to the state of Rajasthan.
（３）Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development(USAID) are supporting forest management and ecosystem restoration throughimproving the livelihoods of people living near forests in some states, and theGlobal Environment Facility (GEF) is supporting the improvement of ecosystemservices and the conservation of terrestrial and marine biodiversity in Rajasthan
and other states. The French Development Agency (AFD) is providing loan
support for forest management and biodiversity conservation projects in theeastern region of Rajasthan (EUR 139 million loan from 2023 to 2031).
３．Project Description（１）Project Description① Project Objective
The Project aims to respond to climate change and enhance ecosystemservices through afforestation, forest conservation, biodiversity conservationand eco-restoration, livelihood improvement activities and institutional
strengthening, thereby contributing to sustainable socio-economic
development in Rajasthan.
② Project Components
The following activities will be implemented in desert and non-desert areas
based on the topographic characteristics of each area. It has been agreed
that the activities carried out in the preceding projects will not be carried out
in the same areas in the Project.
1 ） Afforestation and forest conservation (planting trees along canals,
reforestation of aging forests, afforestation on farmland (agroforestry), fixing

sand dunes, raising seedlings, water source cultivation etc.) (domestic
competitive bidding, etc.)
2 ） Biodiversity conservation and restoration activities (protection ofendangered species (plants), biological habitat improvement, eco-tourism,etc.) (domestic competitive bidding, etc.)
3）Livelihood improvement activities (support for activities by local resident
organizations, etc.) (domestic competitive bidding, etc.)
4 ） Strengthening the organizational structure of the Rajasthan Forest
Department (DX promotion such as GIS improvement, training and research
activities for capacity building of forest officers, Forest Department staff andlocal residents, etc.) (domestic competitive bidding, etc.).
5）Consulting services (implementation supervision, DX promotion support,etc.) (short list method)③ Project Beneficiaries (Target Groups)
Direct beneficiaries:（Population employed in afforestation, water and soil
conservation, etc. and population targeted for livelihood enhancementactivities, etc.）: 120,000 people（２）Estimated Project Cost
31,051 million yen（including Japanese ODA loan 26,133 million yen）
（３）Schedule (Cooperation Period)
February/2024-March/2034 (122 months）.
Completion of all activities (March 2034) is considered completion of theProject.
（４）Project Implementation Structure１）Borrower: President of India
２）Guarantor: N/A３ ） Executing Agency: Rajasthan Forest Department, Government ofRajasthan（hereinafter referred to as “RFD”）
４）Operation and maintenance system:
RFD is responsible for the implementation of the Project as the executingagency, but to improve the efficiency of the Project implementation and theflexibility and transparency of budget management, a Project Management
Unit (hereinafter referred to as “PMU”) will be established under RFD toimplement the Project. In addition, operational management units will beestablished in the regional forest departments (Circle Office), Divisional
Forest Offices, and Range Offices as subordinate organizations of the PMU

to conduct field activities respectively. Activities in each target village will be
implemented jointly by the Village Forest Protection and Management
Committee (VFPMC), the Eco Development Committee (EDC), and SelfHelp Groups (SHG) that consist mainly of women, with support from theRange Office.
（５）Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
１） Japan's Activities: None
２） Other Donor's Activities: There are ongoing projects that AFD issupporting, but there is no overlap in the Project sites.
（６）Environmental and Social Considerations① Category: FI② Reason for Categorization:
The Project cannot identify subprojects before JICA's loan approval underthe “Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) Guidelines forEnvironmental and Social Considerations” (issued in January 2022), andsuch subprojects are expected to have environmental impacts.
③ Other/Monitoring:
Under the Project, Rajasthan Forest Department, with the assistance of
the Japanese ODA Loan consultant hired under the ODA loan project, willclassify subprojects into categories based on India's domestic legal system
and JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations, and thenecessary measures will be taken for the relevant category. Subprojects will
not include Category A projects.
（７）Cross-Sectoral Issues:① Climate change related projects
The Project will contribute to climate change adaptation by improving
ecosystem services and sand dune stabilization through afforestation andother activities, thereby reducing the negative impacts of climate change. Inaddition, the afforestation activities are expected to absorb approximately
76,000 tons of CO2 per year, contributing to climate change mitigation.
② Poverty measures and considerations
In the Project, the main target group will be the Scheduled Tribes with highpoverty rate and high dependence on forest resources, and efforts will bemade to improve their livelihoods through activities such as income
generation activities. In carrying out these activities, it has been confirmedthat there is no negative impact on the livelihood and culture of theScheduled Tribes in the previous project and the Scheduled Tribes in thetarget area of the Project. Prior to the implementation of the Project,
guidelines describing the activities will be prepared together with the local
residents, and the activities will be carried out based on these guidelines.
③Measures against HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases
None④Participatory development
In the Project, local residents will form VFPMCs, develop a project plan(micro-plan) for village-level activities and implement the plan. In addition,activities to improve household income, such as vocational training for
VFPMC, EDC and SHGs, will be carried out with the participation of theresidents.
⑤Consideration for persons with disabilities, etc.
Besides including individuals with disabilities in the afforestation and waterand soil conservation activities, facilities will be constructed with universal
design and barrier-free accessibility in mind when supporting infrastructuredevelopment.
（８）Gender Category: ■GI (S）Gender Informed (Significant)＜Details of Activities/ Reason for Categorization＞
Through the survey and discussions with the executing agency, gender issues
were identified such as women's participation in the decision-making process
in resident organizations, and their lack of training opportunities andparticipation in activities compared to men. The Project will develop a genderaction plan to ensure women's participation in the capacity building training andlivelihood enhancement support; the percentage of women in the VFPMC andthe percentage of women's training and labor participation are set asindicators.For these reasons, the Project is classified as a “gender activity
integration project”.
（９）Other Important Issues
The state is engaged in forestry research related to arid and semi-arid
tropical forests and is also collaborating with overseas forestry research
institutions. In the Project, it was agreed with the executing agency to promotecollaboration between Japanese and Indian research institutions. In the DX
area, in addition to the improvement of the GIS system, mapping andmonitoring with UAVs (drones) and forest management systems are being
considered, as well as the digitization of micro-plans and the creation of newmobile applications for the collection of data necessary for the preparation ofoperational plans.
４. Targeted Outcomes（１）Quantitative Effects
Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Indicator

Baseline
Target（2036）【Actual value in 【 2 years after2023】
project completion】

Afforestation area in the Project（ha）-43,436

Increase in carbon sequestration by theProject (CO2t)-(Note 1）

Survival Percentage of Agroforestry
Plantation (%)

67

80
PMR（Note 2）:
4,500
Oran（Note 3）：
10,060Ecologically or Biologically Significant
Area(ha)-The ratio of Soil Moisture in Forest of
project area (%)（Note 1）

10% increase-2,100Training Programs for forest
officials/resident organizations (Note 4)

-

3,728

Employment (Man/day)-

15 million

Ratio of Female Residents Participatingin the Project (%)-33

Number of VFPMC/EDC/SHGs
mobilized under theProject (Note 4)

Annual profit earned per income
generation activity under the Project per（Note 1）
VFPMC/EDC/SHG (%)(Note 1) The baseline and target are based on the results of a baseline
survey conducted at the start of the Project.
(Note 2) PMR （ Plant Micro Reserve ） :Areas for the protection ofendangered species.

(Note 3) Oran: Sacred Groves that are the object of worship for localresidents.
(Note 4) “Forest officials/resident organizations” indicates VFPMC、EDC、SHG（２）Qualitative Effects: Climate change adaptation and mitigation, improvementof ecosystem services, improvement and development of breeding and nursery
methods through forest research, social participation of poor and vulnerable
groups, and women's participation status in the Project's activities.
（３）Internal Rates of Return:
Based on the following assumptions, the economic internal rate of return(EIRR) for the Project is 19.4%. The Project is not intended to generatebusiness income, and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is not
calculated.
【EIRR】
Cost: Project costs, operation and maintenance costs (all excluding taxes)
Benefit: CO2 reduction, income from forest products, income from special
forest products, income from livelihood improvement activities, mitigation ofconflicts with wildlife, income from ecotourism activities
Project Life: 50 years
５. External Factors and Risk Control（１）Preconditions: None
（２）External Factors: The security in the Project area shall not deterioratesignificantly.
６. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
In the preceding “Rajasthan Forestry and Biodiversity Project” (evaluated inFY2012), the breakdown of the number of employees and the calculation method
were unknown, so the exact effectiveness of the Project could not be verified. Itis pointed out that, in order to ensure proper verification, calculated values andoperational and effectiveness indicators should be clearly stated from the time ofthe appraisal, including the source and calculation methods. In addition, the past
ODA loans to India, “Gujarat Forestry Development Project Phase 2” and “UttarPradesh Participatory Forest Management and Poverty Alleviation Project” (bothevaluated in FY2019) taught us that it is important to consult and involvespecialized departments other than the Forest Department at the Project planningstage to ensure the sustainability of livelihood activities for local people.
For the Project, the source and calculation methods of the number ofemployees and other figures have already been confirmed at the time of theappraisal to ensure appropriate evaluation of the Project after its completion. Also,
consultations will be held with specialized departments for livelihood
improvement activities at the Project planning stage to establish a structure thatensures sustainability. On the other hand, the “Rajasthan Forestry andBiodiversity Project” (evaluated in FY2012), one of the preceding projects, washighly evaluated to have impact on the improvement of the natural environment,etc. Therefore, the technical methods for forest and biodiversity conservation in
the preceding projects will be continuously utilized.
７. Evaluation Results
The Project is consistent with the development issues and policies of theGovernment of India and the State Government of Rajasthan, as well as thecooperation policy and analysis of Japan and JICA, and will contribute to poverty
eradication, gender equality, climate change countermeasures, and theprotection, restoration, and sustainable use of ecosystems through the promotionof forest conservation, biodiversity conservation, livelihood improvement
activities, etc. Since the Project is also expected to contribute to Goals 1 (Endpoverty), 5 (Gender equality), 13 (Combat climate change), and 15 (Ecosystemrestoration) of the SDGs, there is a strong need to support the implementation ofthe Project.
８. Plan for Future Evaluation（１） Indicators to be Uses
As described in Section 4.
（２） Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after the Project completion
END

Appendix: Map of the Project for Climate Change Response and Ecosystem
Services Enhancement in RajasthanAppendix

Map: The Project for Climate Change Response and Ecosystem Services
Enhancement in Rajasthan
Map of India
Rajasthan State

Map of Rajasthan State

Source（top）Maps of India（https://www.mapsofindia.com/）（bottom）Preparatory survey