Japanese ODA Loan
Ex-Ante Evaluation(for Japanese ODA Loan)
Office for Indian High Speed Rail, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
1. Name of the Project(1) Country: Republic of India (India)(2) Project: Project for the Construction of Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail(V)(3) Project Site / Target Area: State of Gujarat, State of Maharashtra, and Union
Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu (Total Population: about
170 million (2011))
Loan Agreement: December 21st, 2023
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Railway Sector and the Priority of the
Project in India
In recent years, India's remarkable economic growth, population growth, andurbanization have led to a rapid increase in domestic rail passenger transport.
The volume of passenger transport in 2019 reached approximately 1.7 times,
compared with in 2000 (Ministry of Railways (MoR) of India, 2020). In 2020, thevolume of passenger transport temporarily decreased due to the pandemic, while
the trend was toward recovery in 2021. On the other hand, track capacity as of2014 was only about 50% of the amount expected to be needed for passenger
transport in 2032 (DFCCIL, 2014). Furthermore, existing conventional rail lines
are facing frequent delays and other problems, therefore, development of asmooth passenger and freight transport system are needed in India. In particular,
the states of Maharashtra and Gujarat, which account for more than 20% of
India's total GDP as of 2021 (Reserve Bank of India, 2021), are expected tocontinue stable economic growth over the next 30 years (Planning Commissionof India, 2014), and JICA's "Joint Feasibility Study for Mumbai-Ahmedabad High
Speed Railway Corridor (hereinafter referred to as the "F/S Survey")" for the"Project for the Construction of Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail (hereinafterreferred to as "the Project")" estimates that the number of daily passengers
between Mumbai and Ahmedabad on the four type of transportation mode (air,rail, long-distance bus, and automobile) will increase approximately 9.8 times

from 2014 (approximately 154,000 passengers) to 2053 (approximately 1.5
million passengers), and approximately 200,000 of these passengers will use
the High Speed Rail in 2053.
Under these circumstances, in the "Indian Railway Vision 2020" formulated in
December 2009, the MoR of India has set forth the development of High Speed
Rail lines in addition to the modernization of conventional lines and theenhancement of transportation capacity. In 2012, the "the Expert Group forModernization of Indian Railways" established by the MoR to implement thispolicy, recommended that the Mumbai-Ahmedabad section be designated as thehighest priority section and that High Speed Rail projects be promoted.
Furthermore, in December 2015, the Prime Minister of Japan and India agreed ina joint statement that the Mumbai-Ahmedabad section "will be developed with theuse of Japanese high speed rail technologies (i.e. the Shinkansen system) andexperiences" and that "both sides will take necessary steps so that financial andtechnical assistance for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Railway (MAHSR)
project will be provided by relevant Japanese institutions". At the Japan-India
summit meeting in March 2023, the two leaders welcomed the signing of a yen
loan for the fourth phase of the high-speed rail project and confirmed that theywould continue to make steady progress in the high-speed rail project, a flagshipproject of Japan and India. As described above, the Project is positioned as animportant project in the Indian Railways Sector Development Policy.
(2) Japan’s and JICA’s Policy Cooperation Policy and Operations in the Railway
Sector
The Country Development Cooperation Policy for India (March 2016) indicates"Enhancing Connectivity" through the development of transportation
infrastructure and other infrastructure as a priority area. The Policy promotes
development of railways (including High Speed Rail and metro) to enhanceconnectivity within major industrial cities and economic zones and between
regions in India with a view to eliminate infrastructure bottlenecks to investment
and growth. In addition, the JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018)
analyzes the need for support for infrastructure development, including main
railway, metros, roads, and ports, to eliminate bottlenecks to economic growth.
Also, to support sustainable and inclusive growth, the JICA will promote
cooperation in addressing environmental and climate change issues, and the
Project is in line with these policies and analyses. Furthermore, the Project is inline with JICA's Global Agenda for Transportation, which focuses on "Promoting
Urban Transportation." Furthermore, it has been repeatedly confirmed in theJapan-India Joint Statement and at the Japan-India Summit that the Project will
be promoted as a flagship project between the two countries. In addition, theProject will contribute to SDGs Goal 8 "Promote sustained, inclusive andsustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work
for all"; Goal 9 "Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainableindustrialization and foster innovation"; Goal 11 "Make cities and humansettlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable" and Goal 13 " Take urgent
action to combat climate change and its impacts".
(3) Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank supports the Mumbai Urban Transport Project (USD 848 million,
approved in 2002 and 2010) and the development of the Dedicated Freight
Corridor (USD 4,932 million, approved in 1994, 2011, 2014, 2015 and 2022).
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) supports Jaipur Metro (USD 176 million,
approved in 2014), Bengaluru Metro line 2A/2B (USD500 million, approved in2021) and jointly supports Mumbai Metro line 2A/2B and 7 with New Development
Bank (NDB) (ADB: USD 926 million (2019), NDB: USD 260 million respectively(2018)) and Chennai Metro line 3/4 (ADB: USD 350 million, NDB: USD 347 million
respectively (2022)).
3. Project Description(1) Project Description
1） Project Objective
The Project aims to develop a high-frequency transportation system byconstructing a high-speed rail along an approximately 500-km section between
Mumbai in Maharashtra and Ahmedabad in Gujarat, with the use of JapaneseHigh Speed Rail technologies, thereby improving the connectivity in India andcontributing to the broad economic development of the target area.
2） Project Componentsa) Civil Engineering/Construction Work (Viaducts section: about 450km,
Tunnel section: about 25km (including undersea tunnel), Others (Particular
Bridge etc.): about 25km, Station building (12 stations))b) Railroad Track Construction Workc) Electrical/Mechanical Workd) Depot Construction Worke) Procurement of Rolling Stocks/Track Inspection Vehiclesf) Procurement of Inspection/Maintenance Carg) Consulting Services (construction supervision (quality control, safety
management, Environmental and Social Consideration Support),
Technology transfer to improve executing agency’s capacity to supervise
construction, etc.)
3） Project Beneficiaries (Target groups)a) Direct beneficiaries: Customers using the high-speed rail (approx. 200,000
per day (the demand forecast in 2053, F/S survey)) and the personnel ofthe executing agency who will attend the training for the operation andmaintenance of the Project, etc.
b) Final beneficiaries:- The residents living along the high-speed rail line who will benefit from thereduction of traffic congestion, traffic accidents, and air pollution- The related parties and the local residents who will benefit from theeconomic effects of the development around the high-speed rail stations,etc.
(2) Estimated Project Cost
1,806,282 million yen (F/S basis. Currently under review between the
Government of India and the Government of Japan, in light of subsequentchanges in the economic environment and other factors.) (Japanese ODA Loan
for Tranche (V): 400,000 million yen)
(3) Schedule
Under discussion between the Government of India and the Government ofJapan.
(4) Project Implementation Structure1） Borrower: President of India
2） Guarantor: None
3） Executing Agency: National High Speed Rail Corporation Limited(hereinafter referred to as “NHSRCL”)
4） Operation and Maintenance Agency：Same as above 3)(5) Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors

1） Japan’s Activity
In association with the Project, the following Technical Assistance under Financeand Investment Account has been implemented.
Name of JICA Project

PeriodRelationship with the Project

Joint Feasibility Studyfor Mumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed Railway
Corridor (F/S Survey)

December
2013 –
June 2015● Preparatory Survey of the
Project

The Detailed Design

December● Detailed design study of theStudy of the Mumbai Ahmedabad High Speed2016 –
February

Project (D/D).
● Basic design, detailed design,

Railway Project

2024(Planned)preparation of tender
documents and tenderassistance regarding the
Project as well as Constructionof Training Institute for MAHSR
Project.
● Developing various regulations
related toconstruction/operation/mainten
ance of high speed rail anddrafting a training plan for
training lecturers.

Capacity developmentof the Construction ofHigh Speed Railway
CorridorAugust2017 –March2024● Technical assistance to
NHSRCL by making good useof experiences as a bullet train
operator in Japan(Planned)
The Detailed Design
Study for the Electrical
packages of theJanuary
2022－
March

Mumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed Rail Project

2025(Planned)

Experts for Acting on
behalf of Employer's

January2022－● Detailed design study of theElectrical Packages● On behalf of Employer's Worksfor Detailed Design

Name of JICA Project

PeriodRelationship with the ProjectWorks for Detailed
Design Documents ofElectrical Packages for
Mumbai-Ahmadabad

March
2025
(Planned)

Documents of Electrical
Packages

Technical Cooperation
Project for Station Area
Development (SAD)
along selected stations

February2023－
December2026● Capacity building for planningand managing station area
development in state
governments, municipalities

of Mumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed Rail(Planned)and urban development
corporations.

Technical assistance forApril 2023

● As an advisor for the Project

Mumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed Rail Project
during construction
phase－March2025(Planned)- Respond to consultationfrom the executing agencies
on overall construction ofhigh-speed rail and individual
technical issues

High Speed Rail Project(MAHSR) project- Provide advice to facilitate
coordination with Japanesecounterparts- Arrange meetings to visit
Japan.
2） Other Donors’ Activity
None in particular(6) Environmental and Social Consideration
1） Category: A2） Reason for Categorization:
The Project falls into the railway sector and has influential characteristics, bothbeing shown in the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations(proclaimed in April 2010).
3） Environmental Permit:

Although preparation of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report is not
required under the domestic law in India, it was prepared by the NHSRCL in July
2015, and an updated version reflecting the subsequent change in the projectplan, etc. was prepared in August 2018.
4） Anti-Pollution Measures:
During construction, air pollution and water pollution concomitant with drilling andconstruction machine operation are being handled by watering, the use of
dustproof sheets, wastewater treatment plants, etc. Regarding the waste,
excavated soil generated by the tunnel construction is being reused in the section
for the embankment, etc., and the rest of the soil is properly being disposed of atdesignated disposal sites. In the section of tunnel construction, the ground is solidand implementation of appropriate construction methods is planned to prevent
loose ground and the inflow of groundwater; therefore, a serious impact due toground subsidence is not expected. Regarding noise and vibration concomitantwith the blasting work, operation time will be limited to minimize the impact onneighborhoods. With respect to noise, vibration, etc. due to running cars when in
operation, countermeasures such as the installation of soundproof walls arebeing taken to minimize the impact. Regarding the noise/vibration of the tunnel
portion and the elevated portion, it is aimed to be reduced by the maintenance ofthe railroad track on a regular basis and compliance with the speed limit.
5） Natural Environment:
The target area of the Project extends through the core zone and the buffer zoneof Thane Creek Flamingo Sanctuary, the buffer zone of Sanjay Gandhi National
Park, and the buffer zone of Tungareshwar Wildlife Sanctuary. It was confirmedthat Environmental Clearance for development in these was obtained on April 24,
2019. Around the Thane Creek Flamingo Sanctuary, mangrove swamps spreadover flamingos inhabit. The impact on flamingos and the surrounding ecosystems
will be minimized by setting the railroad track to 30 m of an undersea tunnel
section underground. The additionally formulated management plan for theabove three districts will be followed to minimize the impacts. Furthermore,
logging of about 101 ha of forest land and about 29 ha of mangrove forest will be
performed in association with the development of the railyard and the railroad
track, etc. With respect to felling forests, alternative tree planting is performed byForest Department in each state.

6） Social Environment:
The Project involves the land acquisition of about 1,389 ha and relocation of
4,450 households, and they will be proceeded according to the Resettlement
Action Plan based on the domestic laws in India and JICA guidelines. Affected
citizens were given an explanation of the project outline, environmental and social
consideration policy, compensation policy, etc. through census survey based on
individual visits and residents’ consultations. According to the minutes of theresidents’ consultations, no dissenting voice on the Project has been confirmedin particular. Financial compensation, vocational training and other livelihood
restoration assistance are being provided to the affected residents in accordancewith the Resettlement Action Plan. In addition, an indigenous peoples’ plan was
created for designated tribes residing in target areas, in accordance with thedomestic laws in India and JICA guidelines as well as the results of residents’consultations, and then the agreements on the implementation of the Project withthose tribes have been confirmed.
7） Other/Monitoring:
During the construction, contractors and monitoring consultants will monitor the
air quality, water quality, noise, vibration, waste, vegetation, ecosystem, etc.
under the supervision of the NHSRCL, and while operating the service, NHSRCL
will monitor the noise, vibration, vegetation, ecosystem, etc. Also, the NHSRCL
will conduct monitoring of resident relocation, land acquisition, and livelihood
recovery support measures. NHSRCL conducts the monitoring and reports theseresults to JICA.
(7) Cross-Sectoral Issues
1） Climate Change: The Project aims at a modal shift from automobiles, buses,
etc. The estimated GHG emission reductions from the Project (per year
after the full-opening of the Project) are approximately 670,000 tonnes/year(CO2
equivalent),
contributing
toclimatechangemeasures(mitigation)(secondary objective).
2） Consideration for Disabilities: In accordance with the domestic law of India,
the design of stations and Rolling Stock takes disabled persons into
consideration (i.e. Elevators, escalators, toilet, station announcements,
textured paving blocks to guide the blind, wheelchair spaces). In relation tothe gender measures of the Project (e.g. women's restrooms and nursing
rooms in the stations and trains), the Project encourages the study of thepossible accommodations (e.g. multipurpose restrooms) for disabled
women.
3） Preventions Measures of Infectious Diseases: NHSRCL has incorporated
provisions requesting contractors to participate in HIV/AIDS prevention
activities in contracts. In addition, as a part of its efforts to prevent the
spread of COVID-19 infection, NHSRCL has agreed to implement a list ofmeasures (36 in total) during the formulation and implementation of the
Project, and clarified the required activities, such as the development work
environments (including preparing epidemic prevention equipment andpromoting the code of conduct), supervision with respect to epidemic
prevention, and awareness-raising campaigns. NHSRCL is supposed tomake quarterly reports with respect to the implementation statuses of themeasures so as to ensure that the impact of COVID-19 is being carefully
watched and the executing agency flexibly and appropriately implement
the measures throughout the project implementation period.
(8) Gender Category: GI(S) (Gender Activity Integration Project)<Details of Activities/Reason for Categorization>
In the Indian railway sector, safety and comfort for women is a challenge;
therefore, the project plans to install CCTV in station, women's restrooms andnursing rooms in stations and trains and provide training for female staff. In
addition, as of December 2022, there is the challenge to address that the female
staff ratio which is 7.3% of NHSRCL’s staff is still lower than the expected. The
Project has a training plan for the women empowerment. Therefore, the Project
was classified as a Gender Activity Integration Project. It is expected that female
staff have continued to be employed.
(9) Other Important Issues
It is expected that Japanese technologies will be used for Core system packages
such as Rolling Stock, Electrical Equipment, Inspection/Maintenance Car andDepot in the Project.

4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)

Indicator

1. Number of Operations(number/day)Baseline(Actual value inTarget[2 years after the2018)

commencement ofcommercial operation]

－

70

－

18.04

－

354.0

2. Passenger Transportation
Volume (million passengerskm/day)
3. Travel Distance(thousand km/day)

4. Transportation Time (minutes)－(Approximately
325 minutes
when using a
conventional line

127

express train)
5. Operating rate (%)

－

87.5

(2) Qualitative Effects
To improve the efficiency of the transportation network for inter-city travel by
providing high-frequency mass passenger transport between Mumbai and
Ahmedabad, and to promote broader economic development in the target area.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the following premise, the economic internal rate of return (EIRR)
is about 8.20% and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is about 6.06%.
[EIRR]
Cost: Project, operation and maintenance expenses (excluding tax)
Benefits: Fuel saving effect, vehicle operation cost reduction effect, travel
time reduction effect, air pollution mitigation effect, accident cost reduction
effect, etc.

Project Life: 50 years[FIRR]
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance expenses
Benefits: Fare and non-fare incomes (including advertisement revenue andstation development revenue)
Project Life: 50 years
5. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions
None in particular(2) External Factors:
Aggravation of political and economic situations in India and the surroundingarea of the project target, as well as natural disasters
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
In similar projects in the Indian railway sector, there have been cases where thirdparty organizations not stipulated in the contract were involved in the design andapproval process, which caused delays in decisions by the executing agency
leading to further delays in the projects. In these projects, the contractors andconsultants indicated that the Indian side set unrealistic targets for the openingof the entire line, and as a result, only construction sections that had been
completed by that time were partially opened.
In the Project, when problems arise that cannot be resolved between thecontracting parties, including the above-mentioned cases, the joint committee
meeting under the co-chairmen representing the governments of Japan and India,
which serves as the highest decision-making body of the Project, technical expert
committee which discuss various issues of the Project from technical aspects andsteering committee where Consultant and Contractor would discuss the progressof work will be held to resolve problems.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project will connect Mumbai, the capital of Maharashtra, the second largest
city in India, and Ahmedabad (the last station is Sabarmati) in Gujarat, the fifthlargest city in India and a rapidly growing commercial and industrial center inrecent years, in about two hours which is the almost 40% of the time of theconventional express trains. The Project will contribute to the improvement of

passenger transportation capacity and the realization of safe transportation
services by developing automatic train control and communication systems andintroducing Rolling Stock for High Speed Rail along with Japan's Shinkansen
system. The Project is in line with India's development challenges and policies,
as well as the cooperation policy and analysis of Japan and JICA. And there is astrong need to support the implementation of the Project as it is considered tocontribute to SDGs Goal 8 "Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainableeconomic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all"; Goal
9 "Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainableindustrialization and foster innovation"; Goal 11 "Make cities and humansettlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable" and Goal 13 " Take urgent
action to combat climate change and its impacts".
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
As indicated in Section 4.
(2) Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: Two years after the commencement of commercial
operation
END
Attachment: Map of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail ProjectAttachment
Map of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail Project

Map of the Project site
(Created by JICA basedon the F/S Survey)