Setting the Stage forCommercial-Scale Carbon
Capture and Storage
Robert J. Finley, Ph.D.
Charlottesville,Virginia, USA

Geological CO2Storage
TechnologyResearchAssociation

CCS Technical WorkshopTokyo, Japan
19 January 2017

Presentation Outline
 Global emissions and the outlook forenergy use to 2040

 Trends in electric generation for Japan Developments in carbon capture andstorage to date CCS leadership in Japan
 Advancing CCS commercialization

Presentation Outline
 Global emissions and the outlook forenergy use to 2040

 Trends in electric generation for Japan Developments in carbon capture andstorage to date CCS leadership in Japan
 Advancing CCS commercialization

Shares of Global Emissions in 2015
41%
34%
34%
6%
From http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/16

CO2 Emissions Outlook to 2035

Billion tonnes CO2Base Case
Faster Transition
IEA 450

Paris Agreement
Emissions peak in 2020;$100/t to $50/t carbon
price by 2035

From BP 2016
Energy Outlook

International Energy Agency Looks Out
to a 2040 Energy World 30% rise in global energy demand to 2040
 Changes already seen underway have slowed

growth in CO2 emissions, mainly due to 1.8%
decrease in energy intensity

 Yet, 500 million will still have no electricity and1.8 billion will still rely on biomass for cooking

From IEA

International Energy Agency World
Coal Outlook to 2040
 After years of rapid expansion, increases in coal
use to be much slower (0.2%/year), withreductions in China, the US, and Europe

 Coal use will still increase by 214 million tonnes
oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 2040

 Yet, even with Paris Agreement world is not on a2oC global warming pathway Future of coal seen as tied to carbon capture andstorage

From IEA

Presentation Outline Global emissions and the outlook forenergy use to 2040

 Trends in electric generation for Japan Developments in carbon capture andstorage to date CCS leadership in Japan
 Advancing CCS commercialization

Increase in LNG Use in Japan
Following Nuclear Plant Shutdowns
From carbonbrief.org

Increase inLNG

Japan’s CO2 Emissions(million metric tons per calendar year)
1400

From BP 2016 Statistical Review
of World Energy

1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Japan’s Intended Nationally Determined
Contribution under the 2015
Paris Agreement
 Cut emissions by 26% from 2013 levels by2030

 Reach INDC target of 1.042 billion tonnes by
2030, a reduction of 234 million tonnes CO2

 Additional reductions in methane and nitrous
oxide pledged

Japan Moves to Add Coal-Fired
Electric Generation
 43 new coal plants to be built in next 12 years(the guardian, 26 May 2016)

 3,039 Mw under construction and 19,045 Mw
announced, pre-permit, or permitted

 92 million tonnes/year CO2 emissions
potentially to be added

 Could increase by 39% the CO2 reductionneeded to meet INDC emissions reduction

Benefits and Impacts of Added
Coal Generation for Japan Makes up for lost nuclear baseload electric

generation with reliable, proven coal technology

 Adds diversification to Japan’s fuel mix andmitigates the high cost of imported LNG

 Likely increases the importance of carbon

capture and storage as one method of achieving
Japan’s INDC pledge

 Increases the value to Japan of basic and appliedresearch focused on CO2 emissions reduction

International Energy Agency
Comment on Japan’s Climate Pledge“This emissions reduction commitment
requires a balancing act between energy
security, economic efficiency, environmental
protection, and safety.”

From Energy Policies of IEA Countries – Japan - 2016

Presentation Outline
 Global emissions and the outlook forenergy use to 2040

 Trends in electric generation for Japan Developments in carbon capture andstorage to date CCS leadership in Japan
 Advancing CCS commercialization

Key Technologies for Reducing
Global CO2 Emissions(billion metric tons)
5040302010Thousands of projects needed
to meet 450 ppm scenario
Source: IEA Roadmap, 2013

Non-Power Plant Large-Scale Captureand Geological Storage Projects:
Commercial Scale Sleipner and Snøhvit (Norway) Shell Quest (Canada) Illinois Industrial CCS (USA) (in 2017)
 Gorgon (Australia) (in 2017)
 In Salah (Algeria) (3.8 mtonnes, ended 2011)
In part from GCCSI 2016 ReportLarge-Scale Capture and Supply toEnhanced Oil Recovery (EOR):
Commercial Scale
 SaskPower Boundary Dam Project (Canada) about 800,000 tonnes in 2016
 Kemper County Energy (USA) (early 2017)
 about 3 million tonnes/year at 65% capture Petra Nova Project (USA) (early 2017) 1.6 million tonnes/year at 90% capture, 240 Mw
 Alberta Carbon Trunk Line (Canada) (late 2017)

 Fertilizer plant source, initially 1.8 million tonnes/year2015 Brookings Institution Study on
Policy to Commercialize CCS in US
 CCS necessary to lower
overall costs of low-carbon
transition

 US support to date inresearch and demonstration

 In the US, there is a lack ofintegrated, commercial-scale
projects at power plants with
only two in development:
Kemper and Terra Nova

Policy Pathway to CCS Commercialization
MoreCostLess
Cost

Front End
“Nurturing”

Research andDemonstration
Funding

After Brookings Institution 2015

KemperPetra Nova
Boundary Dam

PoliticallyDifficult

Loan Guarantees
And Tax Credits
Back End“Maturing”

Politically
Easy

2015 Brookings Institution Study on
Policy Pathway to Commercialize
CCS in the US
 Government financial support necessary to lower
costs of existing technologies and develop new ones

 Off-budget funding mechanism needed for technology
development, such as a dedicated trust fund

 Revise financial incentives to improve loan guarantee
and tax credit programs Create markets for CCS based on a predictablecarbon policy

future US climate policy in questionDOE Loan Guarantee for CommercialScale Project: Lake Charles Methanol
Announced 21 December 2016

 Produces methanolfrom petroleum coke

 Up to $2 billion inloan guarantees
offered for $3.8 billion
project

 90% CO2 capture 4.2 million tonnes/year
CO2 for EOR in Texas

Carbon Capture Commercialization at
Lake Charles (Louisiana) Methanol Plant
 First US petroleum coke to methanol facility
 Avoids burning petroleum coke, whichemits10 to 30 percent more CO2 than coal

 First in the world methanol production
facility to use carbon capture World’s largest industrial manufacturing
facility to use carbon capture

 EOR retains CO2 in depleted oil reservoirs

Technical Pathway to Commercialization
 1. Capture Costs Reduced: for large dilutesources, both power plant and industry

 2. Adequate Storage: well understood, high-volume geological (saline reservoir) storage

 3. System Efficient at Scale: multi-million tonnes/
year for tens of years per project 4. Verifiably Safe and Effective: acceptable to all
stakeholders

US Department of Energy CCS
Commercialization Pathway

2016

From US DOE and Hill, G. 2014 SECARBCarbon Capture andStorage Pilot-Scale US and Japan US DOE Regional Carbon Sequestration
Partnerships, US: Early tests with truck-delivered CO2 with
injection of 5,000 to 10,000 tonnes
 Later tests 30,000 to 50,000 tonnes

 Nagaoka Project, Japan: 10,400 tonnes
 Injection into oil reservoirs, coal seams, andsaline reservoirs

Carbon Capture and Storage has
Moved from Pilot-Scale to
Demonstration-Scale Illinois Basin – Decatur Project, USA: 1 million tonnes
saline reservoir (completed) Tomakomai, Hokkaido, Japan: 300,000 tonnes/3 years
 Boundary Dam and Aquistore, Saskatchewan, Canada:
EOR and geological storage Otway Project, Australia: 80,000 tonnes
 Bell Creek, Montana USA: 1 million tonnes/year, EOR
 Weyburn-Midale, Saskatchewan, Canada: >40 million
tonnes stored, EOR

Carbon Capture and Storage isMoving from Demonstration-Scale toExpanded Commercial-Scale Kemper County Power Plant: pre-combustion
capture for EOR

 Petra Nova Power Plant: post-combustion
capture for EOR

 Biofuel (ethanol) Production: Illinois Industrial
CCS for saline reservoir storage Gorgon Natural Gas Processing: for saline
reservoir storage

Cost of Electricity for Reference
Natural Gas and Coal Power Plants
Gerdes, K., 2014, US DOE, NETL

New Build

Retrofit

NGCC @ $6.13/MMBTUNew Build
Retrofit
Pulverized Coal

Presentation Outline
 Global emissions and the outlook forenergy use to 2040

 Trends in electric generation for Japan Developments in carbon capture andstorage to date CCS leadership in Japan
 Advancing CCS commercialization

Two Key Centers of Basic and Applied
CCS Research In Japan RITE (Kyoto) and I2CNER (Fukuoka) are globally
important centers of CCS research

 RITE CO2 Research Storage Group: Analysis of CO2 behavior in storage layers Analysis of CO2 migration outside of storage reservoirs
 Compilation of best practices for commercialization
 Successful pilot injection test and monitoring at
Nagaoka Test Site and support forTomakomai

Leak Simulation Adds to Understandingof Possible Ocean Impacts
 Provides understanding
to scientists, regulatorsand general public Supports permitting ofoffshore storage

 Enhances risk assessment
 Essential to developmentof commercial-scale
projects

From www.rite.or.jp/co2storage/en/safety/

Ocean Bottom Cable Improves ReservoirImaging and Seismic Monitoring
CableSmallSource Ocean bottom cables
provide highrepeatability

 Small ship can operate
in confined areasnearshore Sensors also canrecord microseismic
data
From www.rite.or.jp/co2storage/en/safety/

Thin, High-Flux High Performance
CO2 Separation Membranes
Global Commercialization Opportunity

Advanced Reservoir Characterization
Can be Applied Worldwide
New Method for High Resolution Geologic Modeling
Applied to Geologic Heterogeneity at Tomakomai Site

Tomakomai CCS Large-Scale
Demonstration ProjectJapan’s First CCS Demonstration Project
100,000 tonnes/year

Strong focus on understanding thegeological storage reservoir, safety,monitoring, and the environment

From Japan CCS
Co. LtdOnshore Refinery Source of CO2
Supports Offshore Reservoir Storage

From Japan CCS Co. Ltd

Two Geologically Different Reservoirs
Targeted with Deviated Wells

From Japan CCS Co. Ltd

Presentation Outline
 Global emissions and the outlook forenergy use to 2040

 Trends in electric generation for Japan Developments in carbon capture andstorage to date CCS leadership in Japan
 Advancing CCS commercialization

Climit Program inNorway• Advancing technology
such as separation
membranes, improved
sorbents, and newdesorber technology toreduce parasitic heatload• Aims to reduce overall
CCS costs andaddresses industry as
well as powerUS Department of Energy
CarbonSAFE Program in the US Phase II awards just issued in late 2016
 Three projects to receive $29 million toinitially characterize a storage complex forcommercial scale of 50 million tons or more

 Projects build on Regional Carbon

Sequestration Partnerships with locations inNorth Dakota, Illinois, and Mississippi

Shell Quest Project in Canada
Experience Reduces Costs

Petra Nova Project in US (Texas)
Experience Reduces Costs
 $1 billion joint venture of NRG Energy

and JX Nippon Oil and Gas Exploration

 NRG estimates that “the next plant itbuilds could cost 20 percent less, thanks
to lessons learned”--as reported by the New York Times
2 January 2017

FOSSIL FORWARD:
Bringing Scale and Speed to CCS in the US
US National Coal Council 2015 Reportto the US Secretary of Energy Policy parity needed for CCS compared to other lowcarbon options

 5,000-10,000 Megawatts of demonstration projects
needed by 2025 to advance CCS technologies toTechnology Readiness Level 9 (Kemper County IGCCis TRL8)

 Without adequate demonstration, commercialization
will not proceedFOSSIL FORWARD:
Bringing Scale and Speed to CCS in the US
 CCS is the only large-scale technology that canmitigate CO2 emissions from industrial processes:
cement, iron and steel, oil refining, chemicals
manufacturing

 No projects (to 2015) have reached TRL9, athreshold for commercialization, which requires
extended operation (typically years) at full scale withminimal risk of failureWorld Energy-Sector CO2 Emissions:
Reductions Needed Beyond Initial
Paris Agreement Pledges

with Paris Agreement pledges
Early peak in emissions
Net-zero by end of thecentury
From IEA 2016 World Energy Outlook

2oC

Setting the Stage for CommercialScale Carbon Capture and Storage
 Policy pathways must support commercialization
based on developing many more large-scale
capture and storage projects

 Technology pathways must reduce capture costs
for large-volume, saline reservoir storage that isefficient, safe, and acceptable to society

 Both pathways must be developed in parallel