Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: The People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Project: The Kanchpur, Meghna and Gumti 2nd Bridges Construction and Existing Bridges
Rehabilitation Project (II)Loan Agreement: June 29, 2017
Loan Amount: 52,730 million Yen
Borrower: The Government of the People‘s Republic of Bangladesh
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Road Sector in Bangladesh
In the People's Republic of Bangladesh, where the annual growth rate of the gross domestic
product (GDP) has been maintained at 6% strong for over ten years, the volume of cargo andpassenger transport handled increased 1.48-fold in the four years from 2005 to 2009. This
volume is expected to continue increasing by 6-7% every year until 2030. The major transportmodes in the country are inland transport by water, railway and road. Among these, roadaccounts for the largest share at more than 70% for both passenger and cargo transport (2016).
However, the development of new roads is not keeping up with the increase in transportvolume and conditions of existing roads and bridges are deteriorating due to lack ofmaintenance, which adversely affects passenger and cargo transport.
In particular, the economic corridor on National Highway No. 1 between the Dhaka
Metropolitan Area and Chittagong, the country’s second largest city, accounts for 30% of thepopulation of the country and 50% of the GDP, driving the country’s economic development.
The vehicle traffic volume on Kanchpur, Meghna and Gumti Bridges on this national highway
has exceeded the planned capacity by up to about 60% (2012), and is expected to increase tothree-fold the planned capacity in 2025. Therefore, in 2008, the Government of Bangladesh
started to increase the number of lanes on the entire length of National Highway No. 1 to fouror eight in accordance with the traffic volume and other factors. For Kanchpur, Meghna andGumti Bridges, there is also an urgent need to increase the number of lanes (throughconstruction of second bridges) to enhance the traffic capacity. Having long supported
passenger and cargo transport between Dhaka and Chittagong, the road surface of these
existing bridges is severely damaged, posing a problem for traffic. Moreover, there areconcerns about the safety of these bridges because they do not meet the new domestic
earthquake resistance standards that were tightened after the completion of the bridges andthey are suffering from bridge pier scouring, so rehabilitation and reinforcement of these
existing bridges is another urgent issue.
(2) Development Policies for the Road Sector in Bangladesh and the Priority of the Project
The 7th Five-Year Plan (FY2016/17–FY2020/21) states, in line with the 6th Five-YearPlan, that a modern and efficient road transport system will play an important role inachieving the plan and Vision 2021 (2009), a midterm vision of the country. It also lists
the development of six lanes for all roads on National Highway No. 1 between Dhaka andChittagong as one of the major objectives. The Road Master Plan (2009) states that theimprovement of National Highway No. 1 is essential to responding to the increase oftransport demand in the next 20 years.
This project, which enhances National Highway No. 1 through constructing new bridges
and rehabilitating the existing bridges to address the sharply increasing transport demand,is highly prioritized in the development policy of this country.
(3) Japan and JICA’s Policy and Operation in the Road Sector
The Country Assistance Policy for Bangladesh (June 2012) sets the acceleration ofeconomic growth as a priority area and aims to contribute to the development of transport
and traffic infrastructure including bridges and arterial roads such as Dhaka-Chittagong
Economic Corridor for promoting the efficient transport of passengers and goods, as well
as for mitigation of regional disparities. Moreover, the JICA Country Analysis Paper for
Bangladesh (April 2013) also identifies the “development of a national transportnetwork” as a priority issue. The Project is in line with these policies and the analysis.
The major support activities in the road sector in the past include the following:
・Grant Aid: Meghna Bridge Construction Project (FY1986), Meghna and Gumti
Bridge Construction Project (FY1991), Project for Reconstruction of Small andMedium Bridges on Dhaka-Chittagong Highway (FY1997–FY1998), Project for
Improvement of Steel Bridges for Roads in Rural Areas (FY2001–FY2002), etc.

・Loan: Eastern Bangladesh Bridge Improvement Project (FY2008), Chittagong City
Outer Ring Road Project (FY2009), Western Bangladesh Bridge Improvement
Project (FY2015), Cross-Border Road Network Improvement Project (Bangladesh)(FY2016), etc.

・Technical Cooperation: Dispatch of Road and Bridge Maintenance Advisors(FY1998–present), etc.

(4) Other Donors’ Activity
The major donors in the road sector in Bangladesh are JICA, the Asian Development
Bank (ADB), and the World Bank. The ADB has supported the widening of roads and thereform of the transport sector (including the institutional capacity building in theHighways Department of the Ministry of Road Transport and Bridges) through South
Asian Subregional Economic Cooperation. The World Bank assisted the Highways
Department with the restoration and maintenance of roads from the 1990s to 2006. China
supported the construction of all eight China-Bangladesh Friendship Bridges from 1986
to 2016, as well as held a meeting of the Joint Working Group for the Bangladesh, China,
India and Myanmar Economic Corridor in 2013 to promote the concept of economic

corridor.
(5) Necessity of the Project
As discussed above, the Project is in line with the assistance policies and the analysis of
the Government of Japan and JICA. In addition, the policies of the Government ofBangladesh identify the urgent need of improving the National Highway No. 1, which isone of the key routes. The Project will improve the safety and enhance the transportcapacity of National Highway No. 1 through the rehabilitation of the existing bridges andconstruction of second bridges adjacent to the existing bridges, thereby contributing toachieving the ninth goal of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Therefore, thenecessity for JICA to support the Project is substantial.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objectives of the Project are to strengthen the capacity and the efficiency of transport
and to improve the safety of bridges in Bangladesh by rehabilitating existing Kanchpur,
Meghna and Gumti bridges, and constructing 2nd new Kanchpur, Meghna and Gumti
bridges adjacent to their existing bridges on Dhaka-Chittagong National Highway No. 1,thereby contributing to sustainable economic development of Bangladesh.
(2) Project Site / Target Area
Narayanganj District, Munshiganj District and Comilla District, Bangladesh(3)Project Components
1) Repair of Kanchpur Bridge (overall length 0.4 km, 4 lanes), Meghna Bridge (0.9 km,4 lanes) and Gumti Bridge (1.4 km, 4 lanes)2) Construction of 2nd Kanchpur Bridge (overall length 0.4 km, 4 lanes), 2nd MeghnaBridge (0.9 km, 4 lanes), 2nd Gumti Bridge (1.4 km, 4 lanes), their approach roads,
Development of Kanchpur Intersection (Chittagong side) and Widening of 2 lanes
connection roads at the end of 2nd Meghna Bridge and 2nd Gumti Bridge to 4 lanes(1.85km)3) Installation of overloading control equipment: axle load scales (2 for each bridge),deck scales (1 for each bridge) and an inspection vehicle (1 for all bridges)4) Consulting Services (e.g., detailed design, bidding assistance and construction
supervision)(4) Estimated Project Cost (Loan Amount)
103,288 million Yen (Loan Amount: 52,730 million Yen

(5) Schedule
March 2013 – April 2022 (110 months in total). The Project will be completed when thefacilities are put in place (April 2020).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2) Executing Agency: Roads and Highways Department, Ministry of Road Transport andBridges (RHD)
3) Operation and Maintenance System: The operation and maintenance of the Project isprovided by RHD(7) Environmental and Social Consideration / Poverty Reduction / Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason for the Categorization: The project falls into the roads and bridges sector(located in a sensitive area and is likely to have significant adverse impact due to itscharacteristic) under the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social
Considerations (April, 2010).
③ Environmental Permit:
The Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report for the Project was approved by
the Department of Environment, Ministry of Environment and Forest of Bangladesh inOctober 2012.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures:
As it is expected that operation of construction machinery will generate coarse
particles and noise during construction, the following measures will be taken: water
sprinkling, covers on load-carrying platforms of vehicles, installation of sound-proof
sheets near houses and use of low-noise heavy machinery. As for water pollution,water-shielding steel-pipe sheet-pile foundation and steel sheet piles will prevent
muddy water from flowing into rivers, and muddy water will be treated in detritus
tanks before being discharged so that the environmental criteria of the country will besatisfied. All excavated soil (about 14,000 m³) will be used for the construction of
approach roads in the project. The result of the bottom sediment survey conducted aspart of EIA confirms that the soil does not contain heavy metal or any other harmful
substance exceeding the criteria.
⑤ Natural Environment:
The target area does not apply to a vulnerable area, such as national park, or its
surrounding. The Meghna and Gumti Rivers may have rare species of river dolphins,
which may be affected by the underwater noise and vibration from pile driving andnighttime lighting. If any river dolphin is spotted, pile driving and the operation ofconstruction vessels will be suspended and nighttime lighting will be limited to theconstruction sites. Therefore, no serious adverse impact on the natural environment isexpected.
⑥ Social Environment:
Although the Project is carried out within the land owned by the executing agency anddoes not require land acquisition, it required the involuntary relocation of a total of294 residents for the construction of the three bridges. The relocation was carried out
according to the regulations of the country and the Resettlement Action Plan (RAP).
There was a meeting with residents during the development of the RAP, where theproject outline, compensation through payment of the replacement costs, support
measures, monitoring plan, complaint handling mechanism, etc., were explained.
Meeting participants made requests for a construction planning that will minimize
relocation, the provision of appropriate compensation and measures to support
livelihood recovery, and asked questions about relocation schedule. No special
opposition against the project was identified throughout the meeting.
⑦ Other / Monitoring:Concerning the resident relocation, the executing agency will conduct internalmonitoring and external experts will also monitor the status of relocation and thestatus of livelihood recovery after relocation. As for the environment, the executing
agency will monitor air quality, noise, vibration, water quality, etc., during theconstruction and after the commencement of service.
2) Promotion of Poverty Reduction: Measures to support livelihood recovery has beentaken for poor illegal residents who were relocated.
3) Promotion of Social Development: Educational activities for construction workers
concerning HIV/AIDS prevention will be carried out with support from consultants.
(8) Collaboration with Other Donors: In collaboration with ADB, JICA will support RHD
in strengthening its organization system.
(9) Other Important Issues: The Project adopts the steel-pipe sheet-pile foundation work,a high-quality technology at which Japanese firms excel.

4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Indicator

Baseline(Actual Value in 2012)

Target（2022）【Expected value 2 years after
project completion】

Annual average traffic
volume (no. ofvehicles/day) (*1)

76,732 (Kanchpur Bridge)
65,008 (Meghna Bridge)
65,008 (Gumti Bridge)

155,100 (Kanchpur Bridge)
108,900 (Meghna Bridge)
101,000 (Gumti Bridge)

Reduction of travel
time (min) (*2)

23

5

1460

Improvement of
average driving speed(km/h) (*3)
Baseline

Target（2022）

Indicator(Actual Value in 2015)【Expected value 2 years
after project completion】

Volume ofTransportation(Passengers) (personper year)(*4)

206,586 (Kanchpur Bridge)
103,955 (Meghna Bridge)
106,602 (Gumti Bridge)

Volume of51,460 (Kanchpur Bridge)

78,491 (Kanchpur Bridge)

Transportation (Cargo)(ton per year)(*5)

51,796 (Meghna Bridge)
47,203 (Gumti Bridge)

79,011 (Meghna Bridge)
71,994 (Gumti Bridge)

256,835 (Kanchpur Bridge)
130,700 (Meghna Bridge)
133,786 (Gumti Bridge)*1 Number of vehicles is the value converted by passenger car unit (PCU) based on 24 hour
traffic volume measurement.
*2 The value is the average time passing the total length of 5.3 km, including the three bridges
and their approach roads.
*3 The value is for the length about 47 km from Jatrabari crossing, the starting point of theNational Highway No. 1, to Shahidnagar crossing, the end point of the Gumti Bridge.
*4 The value is provided by annual average traffic volume times average number ofpassengers per vehicle, common in all bridges.
*5 The value is provided by annual average traffic volume times volume of average cargo (tonper vehicle), common in all bridges2) Internal Rate of Return
According to the following preconditions, this project’s Economic Internal Rate of Return(EIRR) will be 23.2%. The Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) of Kalna Bridge willbe 4.0%.

【EIRR】
Cost: Project Cost (excluding tax), operation/maintenance costs
Benefit: Reduction in vehicle operation cost and travel time, and others.
Project Life: 25 years【FIRR】
Cost: Project costs, operation/maintenance costs
Benefit: Toll revenue
Project Life: 25 years(2) Qualitative Effects
Improved safety of existing bridges by strengthening earthquake resistance, revitalization of
the economy of the whole country of Bangladesh through revitalization of the economy
between Dhaka-Chittagong economic corridor.
5. External Factors and Risk Control
Delay in civil engineering works caused by natural disasters such as a flood
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects(1) Lessons Learned from Past Projects
The result of the ex-post evaluation of the Rupsha Bridge Construction Project in Bangladesh
highlights the necessity to strengthen the maintenance capabilities of the executing agency forlarge-size bridges, strengthen the mid- and long-term financial planning capabilities including
toll setting, and tighten overload control.
(2) Application of Lessons Learned to the Project
As the Project is for the rehabilitation and construction of large bridges, based on theabove-described lesson, the bridge maintenance capabilities of the executing agency will bestrengthened through consulting services and technical cooperation. It has been confirmedthat the maintenance cost can be covered with the current toll level. As for overload, theMinistry of Road Transport and Bridges, the regulatory agency, has agreed that axle load
scales, etc., should be included in the project components to tighten control.
7. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
1) Annual average traffic volume (no. of vehicles/day), Reduction of travel time (min),
Improvement of average driving speed (km/h), Volume of Transportation (Passengers)(person per year), Volume of Transportation (Cargo) (ton per year)2) Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) (%), Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)(%)(2) Timing: Two years after the project completion