子どもを持たない実情の学歴差の分析
The Cause and Consequences of Childlessness in Japan
永瀬伸子（お茶の水女子大学）
NAGASE Nobuko (Ochanomizu University)
nagase.nobuko@ocha.ac.jp
The population projection in 2012 January by ISSPR foresees tremendous rise in thechildlessness, 35.6 percent for cohort born in 1995 for the medium range projection. This imply drasticchange of life for females. Is childlessness in Japan a willing choice or a consequence? Who is at ahigher risk of childlessness?
The Census of 2010 showed that marriage delay has almost come to a halt compared with theCensus of 2005. What about fertility? The following graphs use micro data of monthly Labor Force
Survey up to 2015. The survey can capture the number of children under 15, and the relationshipbetween female and the child can be inferred from household type variable. Graph 1 shows whether thefemale is living with her child under 15. The ratio was over 65% in 2002, and is now around 57 percent
for females in age 39-40. Fertility decline is still a continuing trend in Japan. When compared byeducational attainment, the decline in ratio of those living with children was more pronounced for highschool graduates, while levelling off for the university graduates.
The Fertility Survey of 2010 shows for singles in the age group 25 to 34, the highest reason
selected for not marrying is the “Difficulties of meeting a suitable partner”: 51 percent for females and46 percent for males. For males, “lack of money to prepare for marriage” is on the rise, now 30 percent.
Those selecting staying single as positive choice, such as “no need for marrying yet” and “I do not want
to lose the freedom and carefree life of single” is in general on the decline for both males and females.
The survey of 2010 also shows that singles are increasingly not having a dating partner. In 1997, those
without dating partner were 50% for males and 42 percent for female singles. In 2010, the percentage is
61 percent for males and 50 percent of females. When mate selecting criteria was given, and asked
whether it is important, increasing ratio of single women replied that income, occupation and ability to
do household choirs of the future husband is important. Singles females are setting higher criteria
about their future partner.
Even though marriage and fertility is declining, the Japanese Fertility Survey seem to show acontrary trend in terms of values and attitudes, higher values for family. Interestingly, some of the
traditional values bottomed in 1997 and started to show monotonic rise. Among them are views that
support marriage institution. “If a man and women are living together, they should get married” is now

supported by 74% of single males, 67% of single females and 69% of married females in 2010 about 10
percentage point rise from 1997. “It is not good to stay single,” is supported by 64% of single males
and 57% of single females, and 58% of married females in 2010, also around 7 to 10 percentage point
rise from 1997. Dislike of divorces also rose, “Once married, once should not divorce for such reasons
as disagreement of personal characters.” This also bottomed in 1997 and the supporters are now 72 ofsingle males, 62% of single females and 58% of married females, the rise largest for single females.

Graph1 Females who live with any
child under 15, by age group

Graph 2 Labor Participation Rate and seishain
ratio of mothers with Children in age 0 to 370%

60%

60%

50%
40%

50%

30%
20%

30%

10%

29-30

31-32

33-34

35-36

37-38

39-40

0%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

40%In Labor Force

Seishain

Source : micro data of labor force survey
During this period, we see strong rise of maternal labor starting from 2009. Graph 2 shows thelabor force participation rate of mothers with small children, age 0 to 3, and also the ratio of seishain
workers among them.
In the conference, I will use both Labor Force Survey and Fertility Survey to see the changing
trend of childlessness by educational attainment. I will also focus on the effect of labor market to thechildlessness.

Acknowledgement: The use of micro data of Labor Force Surveys was applied and allowed based on
Abe Fellowship(Principal Investigator Nobuko Nagase). Use of micro data of Fertility Surveys wasapplied and allowed based on Scientific Fund (Principal Investigator Miho Iwasawa)