Ex-Ante Evaluation(for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
1.

Name of the Project（１） Country: India（２） Project Title: Mumbai Metro Line 3 Project (V))（３） Project Site/ Target Area: Mumbai Metropolitan Area, the State ofMaharashtra（４） Loan Agreement: July 5, 2024
2.

Background and Necessity of the Project（１）Current State and Issues of the Urban Transportation Sector/Mumbai
Metropolitan Area and Priorityin India
In India, rapid urbanization in recent years has led to a rapid increase inautomobile registrations (from 55 million in 2001 to 230 million in 2016, India
2018 Statistical Yearbook), which has increased demand for road transportation,
while public transportation infrastructure has not yet been developed. Especiallyin the eight major metropolitan areas of Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai,
Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Ahmedabad, and Pune, traffic congestion caused byincreased road traffic demand has become a serious problem, resulting inserious economic losses, urban environmental degradation due to air pollution,
noise, and other automobile pollution, and health problems.
To address the above issues, the Government of India, in its Metro Rail Policy(latest version updated in 2017), has adopted a policy to promote thedevelopment of public transportation systems, including metro, rail, and bus
systems, from the perspective of safety and energy efficiency, in addition tomeeting the transportation demand and reducing traffic congestion associatedwith recent economic growth. In large cities, the construction of metro isparticularly recommended for reasons such as providing mass transit without
putting pressure on existing road capacity.
The Mumbai metropolitan area has a population of about 18 million, making it
one of the largest metropolitan areas in India and one of the most densely
populated cities in the world, with a population density of about 20,000
people/km2 (2011 Census). Like India as a whole, Mumbai's growth inautomobile registrations has been significant, jumping from 1.01 million in 2001
to 3.53 million in 2018. The average driving speed of vehicles on the city's main
roads is about 15 km/h (2017), resulting in severe traffic congestion. In addition,

as in other metropolitan areas such as Delhi and Bengaluru, the transportationsector accounts for a large amount of CO2 emissions, and the deterioration of
the urban environment and associated health hazards have been reported, with
PM2.5 values approximately five times higher than the WHO standard. On theother hand, it is difficult to secure land to expand the road network, and it is alsodifficult to respond by increasing the capacity of existing public transport such as
buses, making the development of a mass rapid transit system a priority. To
improve road traffic conditions in the Mumbai metropolitan area, reduce
congestion in the existing public transportation system, and mitigate air pollution,
the Government of Maharashtra formulated the Mumbai Metro Master Plan in
January 2004, and has been promoting the plan, which focuses on thedevelopment of a mass rapid transit system totaling 9 lines, covering 147.4 km in
length. Among them, the Mumbai Metro Line 3 Project (hereinafter referred to asthe "Project"), which will connect the southern tip of Mumbai through the city
center to the Mumbai International Airport and the northern suburbs of the city, isconsidered to be a project that should be implemented as soon as possible andis positioned as essential to alleviate traffic congestion and promote economic
growth in the Mumbai metropolitan area.
（２）Japan’s and JICA’s Policy Cooperation and Operations in the Urban
Transportation Sector(especially in relation to key foreign policies such as theFree and Open Indo-Pacific Partnership (FOIP))Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016), formulated by theGovernment of Japan, stipulates "strengthening connectivity" through thedevelopment of transport and other infrastructure as one of the priority areas toremove infrastructure bottlenecks to investment and growth, including thepromotion of railways (including high-speed railways and urban railways) tostrengthen connectivity within and between India's major industrial cities andeconomic regions. Another priority is "strengthening industrial competitiveness"through the development of urban infrastructure, etc. The policy also calls forpromoting the development of transportation networks in metropolitan areas
through the construction of metro lines, etc., in order to reduce traffic congestion,
improve the efficiency of passenger and freight transportation, and improve theurban environment. This Project is consistent with the Country Assistance Policy
for India and one of the Pillars of the New Plan for Free and Open Indo-Pacific(FOIP), “Addressing Challenges in an Indo-Pacific Way (Climate andEnvironment)”, as it will contribute to a low-carbon and decarbonizedtransportation sector through the development of a transportation system in the
Mumbai metropolitan area. In addition, the JICA Country Analysis Paper for India(March 2018) identifies the need for support for infrastructure development,
including mainline railways, urban railways, roads, and ports, with a focus on
industrial clusters such as special economic zones and economic corridors
located in the eight metropolitan areas, the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor,
and the Chennai-Bengaluru Industrial Corridor, in order to remove bottlenecks toeconomic growth. JICA also states in its Paper that it will promote cooperation toaddress environmental and climate change issues in support of sustainable andinclusive growth, and this Project is consistent with these policies and analyses.
In terms of ODA loans to India, as of May 31, 2024, 89 projects totaling
4,490,448 million yen have been approved for the transportation sector. Amongthese, ODA loans to the railway sector include support for metro projects in Delhi,Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru, Ahmedabad, and Patna, with 56 ODA
loans totaling 3,696,298 million yen as of the end of May. For this Project, PhaseI ( L/A signed in 2013, approved amount 71,000 million yen), Phase II ( L/Asigned in 2018, approved amount 100,000 million yen), Phase III ( L/A signed in2019, approved amount 39,928 million yen), and Phase IV (L/A signed in 2024,approved amount 58,943 million yen) have already been provided.
（３）Other Donors’ ActivitiesThe World Bank, under its Country Partnership Framework (for the Period
FY18-FY22) for India, is promoting connectivity and logistics improvements toenhance industrial competitiveness and job creation, and has supported theMumbai Urban Transport Project (2002 and 2010 approved, totaling US$848million) and the Dedicated Freight Corridor Projects (2011, 2014, 2015, and2022 approved, totaling US$2,970 million) among others.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB), under its Country Partnership Strategy(2023-2027), intends to promote support for modal shift and decarbonization ofthe transportation sector from automobiles to railways, and has alreadysupported the Jaipur Metro (US$157 million approved, 2013) and the Bengaluru
Metro Lines 2A and 2B (US$500 million approved, 2020), among others. ADB
has also provided support for Mumbai Metro Lines 2A, 2B, and 7 throughco-financing with New Development Bank（NDB）(ADB has committed US$926
million (2019) and NDB US$260 million (2018)), Chennai Metro Lines 3, 4, and 5(ADB has committed US$1,131 million (2022), NDB US$347 million (2022),

etc.).
3.

Project Description（１） Project Description① Project Objectives
The Project aims to cope with the increase of traffic demand in Mumbai
by expanding the mass rapid transportation system, thereby promoting
regional economic development and improving urban environment,
through mitigation of traffic jams and decrease of pollution caused byincreasing motor vehicles.
② Project Components(a) Civil engineering work and building work (all lines underground:
about 34 km, 26 underground stations, 1 above ground station)(b) Rolling stock maintenance base facility(c) Track work(d) Electric and machine work(e) Signal and communication work(f) Automated charge-receiving system(g) Undergrund sectionventilation facility installation work(h) Automatic elevating facility installation(i) Rolling stock (248 cars)(j) Others (rolling stock maintenance base work, station security facility)(k) Consulting services (bidding assistance and, construction
management, etc.)
All components above except (a) 1 aboveground station, (i) 38 out of 248
cars procured, and (j) are covered by yen ODA loans. Components notcovered by ODA loans will be borne by India.
③ Project Beneficiaries (Target Groups)
Direct beneficiaries: Metro passengers ( about 1.5 million/day) (2026)
Final beneficiaries: Residents of the Mumbai metropolitan area (about18 million people) who will benefit from the Metro project, such as
reduced traffic congestion, fewer road accidents, and less air pollution.
（２）Estimated Project Cost
680,692 million yen(Yen Loan Amount of this tranche: 84,261 million yen)
（３）Schedule (Cooperation Period)

September/2013-December/2026 (160 months) The Project will be completed
when all the facilities are put into service (scheduled for January 2025)（４）Project Implementation Structure１）Borrower: President of India
２）Guarantor: N/A
３）Executing Agency: Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation Limited: MMRCL
４）Operation and maintenance system: Once the Project is completed,
MMRCL will outsource the operation/maintenance to Delhi Metro Rail
Corporation (DMRC).
（５）Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
１）Japan’s Activities: CSMT station of this Project (Line 3) is planned to connect
with the CSMT station in “Mumbai Metro Line 11 Project”, for which a
Preparatory Survey is being planned. The CSMT station is a World Heritage Siteand the surrounding area is the heart of Mumbai's commercial capital, and thelink with Line 11 is expected to not only enhance the mutual benefits of the twoprojects, but also improve connectivity in the Mumbai metropolitan area andcontribute to further economic growth in the region. In addition, the BKC station
under construction in this Project is expected to be linked to the BKC station of“ Mumbai - Ahmedabad High Speed Railway Project” currently supported by
ODA loans, and synergies between the two projects are expected to beenhanced through improved connectivity.
２）Other Donors’ Activities:
As described in 2. (3) above.
（６）Environmental and Social Considerations
１）Environmental and Social Considerations① Category: A② Reason for Categorization:
This Project falls under one of the sensitive sectors (railway) and has one ormore sensitive characteristics under “JICA Guidelines for Environmental andSocial Considerations” (published in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit
Although there is no obligation to prepare an environmental impact
assessment (EIA) report concerning the Project in the domestic laws ofIndia, it was already prepared in September 2012, and revised inNovember 2017 and in February 2020. In implementing the Project, it isnecessary to obtain tree-cutting permission, forest clearance, and coastal
regulation zone clearance by the time of initiation of work in some regions,and all such approvals had already been obtained by September 2019.

④ Anti-pollution measures
During construction, measures are being taken to ensure proper
management of contaminants, construction vehicles, and heavyequipment. Regarding the impact on the ground during construction,
since the shield construction method will prevent the ground fromloosening and groundwater from flowing into the site, no significant
impact due to ground settlement is expected. Once in service, mitigation
measures will be implemented, including noise barriers, installation of anelastic rubber layer under the track to prevent vibration, and installation of
a wastewater treatment facility at the rail yard to prevent water pollution.
⑤ Natural environment
Within the Project target region, the Aarey Colony district is located 1.5
km from the Sanjay Gandhi National Park, but there are no rare spiecesof animals, etc. inhabit in the surrounding area, so the adverse effect on
the natural environment is expected to be minimal. The Project requires atotal of 3,826 trees to be cut down and 0.91 ha of mangrove forests to becleared, and alternative reforestation is being implemented. Some
residents protested against the cutting of trees at the proposed Cuffe
Parade station site in the Colaba district, and on February 3, 2017, theresidents filed a suit in the Mumbai High Court seeking an injunction
against the Project, which was dismissed by the Supreme Court on May18, 2017. MMRCL has been clearing trees from construction areas forwhich permits were obtained and suspended tree cutting in the subject
area for the duration of the litigation, but resumed after the dismissal.
Additionally, residents had campaigned against tree cutting over theconstruction of the Aarey Colony rolling stock depot, but in September
2019, the Mumbai High Court dismissed the residents' request for an
injunction against the construction work. The executing agency undertook
tree clearing work in response to the High Court ruling and completed it inOctober 2019 and is in the process of replanting trees in the area.
⑥ Social environment
The total land acquisition area for the Project is about 76.70 ha (of whichabout 2.51 ha is private land) and 2,858 households (8,508 persons) areaffected. Of these, 2,017 households (6,781 persons) were resettled.
MMRCL held discussions with the land acquisition and resettlementtargets and proceeded according to the resettlement plan (based on theNew Land Acquisition Act and the Resettlement Policy of the Governmentof Maharashtra, etc.), which was formulated to meet the requirements of
the JICA guidelines, and completed the land acquisition process in
February 2021.
Regarding resettlement, relocation to temporary housing was completed
in 2018, and relocation to permanent sites is expected to be completed inAugust 2025.
⑦ Other/Monitoring
In this Project, MMRCL monitors land acquisition and resettlement during
construction, and the construction contractor monitors noise, vibration,soil, air quality, water quality, waste, etc., under the supervision ofMMRCL. Once in service, MMRCL will monitor noise, vibration, air quality,
water quality, and so forth. In addition, MMRCL is currently in the processof contracting a professional outside consultant with its own funds toacquire the land, resettle the residents, and monitor their living conditions
after the relocation. During the public discussions on the EIA report for theProject, concerns regarding noise, air pollution, and construction debris
disposal methods, as well as requests for nighttime construction
restrictions, were raised by the local residents, and the executing agency
has committed to and is implementing mitigation measures andmonitoring, respectively. No specific objections to the Project have beenraised by the residents.
（７）Cross-Sectoral Issues① Climate change responses：This project will contribute to the reduction ofgreenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by reducing traffic congestion caused by
the use of automobiles through the construction of a mass rapid transitsystem. The country's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) includes theuse of a mass rapid transit system as one of the strategies for mitigation
measures, and this Project is considered important. The climate change
mitigation benefits of the Project (estimated GHG emission reductions) areexpected to be approximately 261,968 tons of CO2 equivalent per year.
② Measures against infectious diseases: HIV/AIDS control measures forconstruction workers will be implemented by contractors during theconstruction phase.
③ Considerations for persons with disabilities: In accordance with Indian
national laws and regulations, the station building and carriages (elevators,toilets, internal broadcasting, Braille blocks, wheelchair spaces, etc.) aredesigned with consideration for use by all, including the elderly and disabled.
（８）Gender Category: ■GI(S) Gender Informed (Significant)<Details of Activities/Reason for Categorization>
Through discussions with the executing agency, gender issues were identified,such as the inability of women to use public transportation in a safe andcomfortable manner. This Project is classified as GI (S) because it plans tointroduce women-only cars, install priority seating for passengers who needassistance, including women, and install surveillance cameras in stationbuildings and trains to ensure that women can use the Metro in safety andcomfort, and to monitor the results and progress of these efforts. For thesereasons, the Project is classified as a “gender activity integration project”.
（９）Other Important Issues: Urban development is underway in the BKC andWorli districts, through which Metro Line 3 passes, and Japanese companies arealso involved in large-scale real estate development and other projects. It is
expected that the development of the metro through the Project will have asynergistic effect with these developments and contribute to further economic
growth in the commercial city of Mumbai.
4. Targeted Outcomes（１）Quantitative Effects
１）Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Baseline（Actual value inTarget (2027)(2 years after2014）

project completion）

Operating rate (%/year)-87

Running-113-

502

Indicator

distrance(1,000 km/day)Number of
running trains(day)

Cuffe Parade-BKC
BKC-Aarey

Volme of transportation(million people, km/day)Incomefrom

Passenger(millionrupee/day)２）Impact（２）Qualitative Effects

270-

18.3-

60.91

Reducing pollution, mitigating climate change, improving convenience byensuring on-time travel, economic development of the Mumbai metropolitanarea, reducing traffic congestion and improving the urban environment, andreducing health hazards from air pollution.
（３）Internal Rate of Return
Based on the assumptions listed below, the economic internal rate of return(EIRR) for the Project is 14.3%, and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is5.2%.
【EIRR】
Cost: Project costs, operation and maintenance costs (all excluding taxes)
Benefit: Effects of reduction in travel time for metro and road transport users,
Effects of reduction in vehicle maintenance costs for road transport
users, Effects of reduction in road traffic accidents, Effects ofreduction in emissions of environmentally hazardous substances fromroad transport, and Effects of reduction in the cost of road transport
infrastructure maintenance.
Project Life: 30 years【FIRR】
Cost: Project costs, operation and maintenance costs (all excluding taxes)
Benefit: Passenger revenue, advertising revenue
Project Life: 30 years
5.

External Factors and Risk Control（１）Preconditions: N/A（２）External Factors: N/A
6.

Lessons Learned from Past Projects

In the ex-post evaluation of the “Delhi Mass Rapid Transit System Project” (ODAloans to India) and its Phase 2 operations (evaluated in 2010 and 2015
respectively), it has been pointed out that improving access around metrostations is an issue, and lessons have been learned that it is desirable tocoordinate with other transportation agencies operating public transit systems,
such as feeder buses.
In this project, MMRDA is coordinating connections and other matters with thebus lines operated by Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport and theMumbai Metro Lines 1 and 2 and monorail operated by the Mumbai Metropolitan
Region Development Authority (MMRDA).
7.

Evaluation Results

JICA has been supporting metro projects in metropolitan areas, and this Projectwill contribute to the balanced economic development of the Mumbai
metropolitan area by reducing traffic congestion and traffic pollution, which is inline with India's agenda, development policies and the cooperation policies ofJapan and JICA. In addition, the Project is considered to contribute to theachievement of the SDGs Goal 8 "Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainableeconomic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all”, Goal
9 “Build resilient infrastructure”, Goal 11 “Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient andsustainable”, and Goal 13 “Take urgent action to combat climate change andits impact”, and therefore, it is highly important for JICA to support theimplementation of the Project.
8.

Plan for Future Evaluation（１）Indicators to be Used
As indicated in Sections 4.
（２）Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after the project completion
ENDAppendix:

Map of Mumbai Metro Line 3 Project (V)Appendix:
Map of Mumbai Metro Line 3 Project (V)（Source: Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA)）
State of Maharashtra
MumbaiLegend
・Line 1：Light blue line (in service since 2014)
・Line 2：Blue line（Partially in service 2022）
・Line 3：Red line（This Project）（All lines scheduled
to be in service in 2025）

3 号線延伸(計画中)Navy Nagar 駅（予定）