ROLES Insights Number 2022-06 November 18, 2022

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How Much More Can Russia Fight?
Satellite Image Analysis of Spare Storage Equipment in the Eastern Military District of theRussian Armed Forces
Number 2022-06
November 18, 2022
By Yu Koizumi
BACKGROUND
In the first nine months of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian military is estimated to have lost an enormous
amount of equipment, amounting to 1,465 tanks, 1,682 infantry fighting vehicles, 259 armored personnel
carriers, and 695 other armored fighting vehicles (1). As of the beginning of the war, the Russian military
possessed 3,417 tanks, 4,293 infantry fighting vehicles, and 7,452 armored personnel carriers (2), with tanks inparticular suffering extremely heavy losses.
As a result, the Russian military has been forced to redeploy old reserve weapons to active service. According
to reports in October 2022, Russia is planning to modernize and refurbish 800 obsolete T-62M tanks produced
in 1960s and other armored fighting vehicles (3).
RESEARCH DESIGN
So how much of Russia's reserve weapons have been returned to service so far, and how much capacity doesit possess to withstand enormous damage and continue fighting? While it is difficult to answer these questions,
we can identify the overall trends by locating reserve equipment storage bases, Baza Khraneniia Remonta
Vooruzheniia i Tekhniki, or BKhRVT and tank storage bases, Tsentral’naia Baza Rezerva Tankov, or TsBRT(Fig. 1) and observing them via satellite imagery.
In this research, we observed BKhRVTs and a TsBRT located in Russia’s Eastern Military District (EMD)with Maxar Technologies’ high resolution (50cm~) satellite imagery. This research design is based on theassumptions below:•Russian Ground Forces has total 13 reserve (cadre) brigades (4);

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ROLES Insights Number 2022-06 November 18, 2022••••

Of 8 brigades are concentrated in the EMD (3 for Central MD, 2 for Western MD) (5);Given this, most of them is considered to exist in the EMD although the total number of BKhRVTs andTsBRTs are unknown (6);The EMD is the most eastern one among total 5 Military Districts (Fig.2), and the only way to transportheavy equipment from the EMD to Ukraine is to allocate the transportation capacity of the Trans-Siberian
Railway;
However, the EMD is approximately 7,000 km away from Ukraine, and the cost of moving equipment
is relatively high compared to the Western and Southern Military Districts adjacent to Ukraine.

Thus, if the number of reserve weapons is significantly reduced in BKhRVTs and TsBRTs in the EMD, itwould suggest the severe decline of Russia’s capability to continue the war.
A total of 10 BKhRVTs and one TsBRTare reported to exist in the EMD (7). However, the presence of the225th BKhRVT (Yasnyi, Zabaikalskii Krai) among these could not be confirmed by satellite imagery. Inaddition, satellite imagery for the 245th BKhRVT (Lesozavodsk, Primorskii krai) was not available after May
2022. Therefore, the remaining nine sites are included in this study.
Fig.1 The Ground View of a TsBRT (227th TsBRT in Republic of Buriat)

Source: “База хранения и ремонта военной техники,” ЯПлакаль,https://www.yaplakal.com/forum2/topic1858039.html

RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904 JAPANhttps://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en
office@me.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp

ROLES Insights Number 2022-06 November 18, 2022
Fig.2 Five Military Districts and Locations of BKhRVTs and TsBRTANALYSIS
For the nine EMD BKhRVTs and TsBRT, we compared the situation before and after the outbreak of the war
and in October-November 2022.
(1) 227th TsBRT (Divizionnaia, Republic of Buriat)
February 7, 2022

October 25, 2022

Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies

Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies

RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904 JAPANhttps://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en
office@me.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp

ROLES Insights Number 2022-06 November 18, 2022
February 7, 2022

October 25, 2022

Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies

Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies

February 7, 2022

October 25, 2022

Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies

Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies

RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904 JAPANhttps://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en
office@me.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp

ROLES Insights Number 2022-06 November 18, 2022

(2) 7018th BKhRVT (Drovianaia, Zabaikalskii krai)
October 23, 2022

January 21, 2022
Image © 2022 Maxar Technologies

Image © 2022 Maxar Technologies(3) 7020th BKhRVT (Ussuriisk, Primorskii krai)
January 29, 2022
Image © 2022 Maxar Technologies

October 6, 2022
Image © 2022 Maxar Technologies

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Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904 JAPANhttps://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en
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ROLES Insights Number 2022-06 November 18, 2022

(4) 7021st BKhRVT (Nikol’skoe, Amurskaia oblast’)February 6, 2022

October 28, 2022

Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies

Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies(5) 240th BKhRVT (Belogorsk, Amurskia oblast’)February 14, 2022
Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies

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Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
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ROLES Insights Number 2022-06 November 18, 2022
October 28, 2022
Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies(6) 243rd BKhRVT (Khabarovsk, Khabarovskii krai)
February 20, 2022

October 29, 2022

Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies

Image © 2022
Maxar Technologies

RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904 JAPANhttps://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en
office@me.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp

ROLES Insights Number 2022-06 November 18, 2022

(7) 237th BKhRVT (Bikin, Khabarovskii krai)
February 24, 2022

November 10, 2022

Image © 2022 Maxar Technologies

Image © 2022 Maxar Technologies(8) 247th BKhRVT (Monastyrishche, Primorskii Krai)

December 23, 2021

November 8, 2022

Image © 2022 Maxar Technologies

Image © 2022 Maxar Technologies(5) 230th BKhRVT (Dachnoe, Sakhalinskaia oblast’)February 25, 2022

October 3, 2022

Image © 2022 Maxar Technologies

Image © 2022 Maxar Technologies

RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904 JAPANhttps://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en
office@me.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp

ROLES Insights Number 2022-06 November 18, 2022

CONCLUSION
The analysis showed a significant decrease in spare storage equipment at seven of the nine BKhRVTs. The
exceptions are the 243rd BKhRVT in Khabarovsk and the 230th BKhRVT in southern Sakhalin, the latter ofwhich appears to have left its reserve storage equipment untouched due to lack of capacity to transport heavyequipment across the sea to the Russian mainland. On the other hand, why the former's reserve storage
equipment remains untouched is unclear. In addition, not all of the equipment in reserve storage has been
removed from the seven facilities where a significant decrease in the amount of equipment in reserve storage
was confirmed. This leads to the conclusion that Russia has not yet completely lost its ability to continue
fighting the war while it is under significant pressure.
SOURCES(1)“Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion OfUkraine,” Oryx, https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documentingequipment.html.
(2)
Institute for International Strategic Studies (IISS), The Military Balance 2022 (Routledge, 2022), pp. 194,
199, 201.
(3)Алексей Моисеев, “Модернизированные Т-62 получат новые средства обнаружения и защиты,”Русское вооружение, 2022.10.13, https://rg.ru/2022/10/13/modernizirovannye-t-62-poluchat-novyesredstva-obnaruzheniia-i-zashchity.html.
(4)IISS, op. cit, 2022, p. 194(5)Ibid, pp. 202-206.
(6)
Each BKhRVT is considered to have a capacity to equip a reserve brigade with storage weapons. For
example, the Central MD is reported to have three BKhRVTs when there are three reserve brigades.
Александр Храмчихин, “Чем сильны войска Центрального военного округа,” Независимое военное
обозрение, 2019.9.6, https://nvo.ng.ru/forces/2019-09-06/11_1060_army.html.
(7)
Ibid.; Александр Храмчихин, “Дальний и беззащитный восток,” Независимое военное обозрение,2018.11.30, https://nvo.ng.ru/forces/2018-11-30/1_1024_east.html.; Александр Храмчихин,“Неполноценная оборона Приморья,” Независимое военное обозрение, 2019.10.11,
https://nvo.ng.ru/nvoexpert/2019-10-11/7_1065_defence.html.; Александр Храмчихин, “Ржавый замоккитайской границы,” Независимое военное обозрение, 2020.7.24, https://nvo.ng.ru/armament/202007-24/8_1101_china.html.
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Yu Koizumi is a Lecturer at the Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology at the University ofTokyo.

RCAST Open Laboratory for Emergence Strategies
Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, the University of Tokyo
4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904 JAPANhttps://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en
office@me.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp