パキスタンにおける災害復興事業に いて事業について
小長井 男
小長井一男

地震後12回
地震後12回・・・

Mr. Zahid Ameen

2005年カシミ ル地震
2005年カシミール地震
Balakot–Bagh
Fault
Epicenter (USGS)
Ghari Habibullah
Fig. 5
Muzaffarabad
Fig. 634°29′35″N
73°37′44″E

Satellite sites
Fig. 7

Fault trace(Nakata et al,1991)

Hattian Ballalandslide mass
Figs. 2 and 3

Muzaffarabad

IKONOS

Photo from Dr. Mirza Shahid Baig

Gulshan
渓流
Tariqabad
渓流
Muzaffarabad

Gulshan 渓流

29/11/2008

19/08/2007
25/06/2008

砂防ダムの可能性に言及

地すべり砂防技術センター
近藤浩一専務理事

地震減災技術セミナー 2008/11/26 Muzaffarabad

砂防ダムの効果を数値解析で

Check dam

Check dam

Check dam

Check dam

Zaheer Abbas
KAZMI , Konagai
Lab.

防災教育（2008/11/27）

防災教育（2008/11/27）

JICA教科書からAJKの教科書へ

変形し続けた土砂ダム
Balakot–BaghFault
Epicenter (USGS)
Ghari Habibullah
Fig. 5
Muzaffarabad
Fig. 634°29′35″N
73°37′44″E

Satellite sites
Fig. 7

Fault trace(Nakata et al,1991)

Hattian Ballalandslide mass
Figs. 2 and 3

変形し続けた土砂ダム

Photo by Prof. Mizra

流入 流出量の計測
流入・流出量の計測(WAPDA report)toe

浅い部分はガサガサ？
Large lake
3

Discharrge m /s6543210

Small lake

I flInflowlargelLake
L kInflow Small Lake
Seepage through Dam

Seepage increased

Constant Discharges

ul-J
2222-J

unay

pr-M-M
2423-F2223-J
23-A

areb

-D
24

an-N
24

Large LLLakekSmall Lake
Breaching
1276
Water level decreases

n22-Juay23-M

pr23-A

ar24-M

b

1212

22-F
e

1320
1300
1280
1260
1240
1220
1200

24-N
ov
24-D
ec
23-J
an

Elevattion, movec

Water of the small lake
began to seep throughthe landslide mass
after the water level ofabout 1212m wasreached.
Either piping or erosion
may have been formed
afterf April 21stt 2006.

小さい湖からの伏流水に沿って徐々に侵食が進む

15th Nov.
Nov 2006

28th June.
June 2008

スレーキングit is not known exactly when
when, but …

そして突然現れた侵食崖

The Debris mass have has been going through further gradual changes. These changes havebeen accelerated since the water from the larger
g lake began
g spillingp g over the debris mass.
It is not known exactly when, but a significant backward erosion scar progressed about 300m
up through the toe slope during November 2008 till June 2009.
but there had been no marked change observed between June 2009 and November 2009

重水δ18O の比率計測

δ18O 比が侵食の進んだ場所で変化

沈下の兆候そして唐突に…

2010年2月9日、決壊

Courtesy of Prof. Jean F. SchneiderOn February 9, 2010, a natural landslide dam at Hattian
Ballah of Pakistan, which was formed in the Oct 8, 2005
Kashmir earthquake, failed due to incessant rains.

事前に洪水予測までしていたのに！
7000

Vertical Dow n Cutting Rate
100 m/hr

6000

50 m/hr
10 m/hr

Disccharge (m 3/s)5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

00

2

4

Time from breah initiation (hr)6

予測結果を整理した論文の最後に・・・
When the authors would finish this paper, they heard that the debris dam breached
on FebFeb. 9th,
9th 2010 destroying two dozens of houses and killing a boyboy. We regretthat it was only at a later day that we knew some changes that we observed atHattian Bala debris mass may have been early signs of this tragic event. Theauthors therefore got to devote much of their energies to cope with the threat forthe people along Jehlum River in a rational mannermanner, where threat probably remains
in a serious situation even now.

右端：Ahsan
右端Ahsan Sattar,Sattar Konagai
Laboratory, one of winners of theFuruichi Prizeまだまだ鉄砲玉がない！
Shamshad氏の講演で使われたスライド

TAHIR SHAMSHAD
General Manager/HeadEarthquake Reconstruction DivisionNESPAKHISTORY OF BUILDING CODESIN PAKISTAN 1947 TO SEVENTIESBRITISH CODES PREVAILED LATE SSEVENTIESS TOO DATEAMERICAN CODES TOOK OVER GRADUALLY. ATPRESENT THESE ARE TAUGHT IN UNIVERSITIES AND
PRACTISED BY ENGINEERS
ENGINEERS.
 1986A BUILDING CODE OF PAKISTAN WAS DEVELOPED;BUT NOT ENFORCEDREVISION AND UP-DATINGOF 1986 CODE
OCTOBER 2005 EARTHQUAKE MADE OBVIOUSTHE POOR DESIGN AND CONSTRUCTION
PRACTICES IN PAKISTAN2005 (AFTER EARTHQUAKE)
WORK STARTED ON UPGRADING THE CODE,WITH PRIORITY GIVEN TO SEISMIC PROVISIONS.

NEED FOR UPGRADATION OF THE BUILDINGCODE WAS REALIZEDTASK ASSIGNED TO NESPAK INNOVEMBER 2005

SCOPE OF WORK
WORK DIVIDED INTO TWO STAGESSTAGE-IRECOMMENDATIONS OF PRELIMINARYSEISMIC DESIGN PARAMETERS ANDCRITERIA FOR SEISMIC DESIGN OF BUILDINGSIN ISLAMABAD – RAWALPINDI AREASTAGE-IISEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION AND SEISMICPROVISIONS FOR BUILDINGS, COVERINGWHOLE COUNTRYSTEPS IN CODE DEVELOPEMNTSEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION REVIEW OF CODES WORLDWIDE ASSESSMENT OF PREVALENT CONSTRUCTIONMETHODSO S IN PAKISTANS SELECTION OF APPROPRIATE BASEDOCUMENTS
 FORMULATION OF CODE PROVISIONS FORPAKISTAN REVIEW BY NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONALEXPERTSREFERENCE DOCUMENTSUBC-97:UNIFORM BUILDING CODEACI-2005: AMERICAN CONCRETE INSTITUTE:BUILDING DESIGN REQUIREMENTSAISC-2005: AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF STEELCONSTRUCTION PROVISIONS FORCONSTRUCTION,STRUCTURAL STEEL BUILDINGSASCE-2005: AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS:MINIMUM DESIGN LOADS FOR BUILDINGS