EU Nuclear Status & Prospects

Bertrand Barré
ENS President
INSC President
Advisor to AREVA

Olkiluoto – July 2005

GLOBAL 05 – Tsukuba, October 2005

24 Member Societies accross Europe
Austrian Nuclear Society

Belgian Nuclear Society

British Nuclear Energy
Society

Bulgarian Nuclear Society

Croatian Nuclear Society

Czech Nuclear Society

Danish Nuclear Society

Finnish Nuclear Society

French Nuclear Energy
Society

German Nuclear Society

Hungarian Nuclear Society

Israel Nuclear Society

Italian Nuclear Association

Lithuanian Nuclear Energy
AssociationNetherlands Nuclear
SocietyNuclear Society of Russia

Nuclear Society of Slovenia

Polish Nuclear Society

Slovak Nuclear Society
Spanish Nuclear Society
www.euronuclear.org

Romanian Nuclear Energy
Association
Swedish Nuclear Society
2Swiss Nuclear Society

BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 2005

Yugoslav Nuclear SocietyEuropean Union EU-25

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Specifics of Europe
X Population no longer Growing
X High per capita GNP
X High energy use /Low consumption growth rate
X Low Fossil Fuels Resources / High dependancy
X Environment consciousness
X High technology

X Nuclear Power well fitted to European Situation

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Nuclear Electricity 2004
CountryGWeUSA98
France63
Japan48
Germany
20Russia
22South Korea 17
Canada12Ukraine
13Sweden
9U Kingdom 12WORLD
368

TWh Nb Reac. %Elec
789
103
20427
5978274
55
29
158
1732
133
31161242038
85171581
1551
75
1052
74
23
192 619440
16
Website WNA August 2005

7BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 2005

Nuclear Power in EU 25
Country

8% Elec

BelgiumCzech Republic
FinlandFranceGermany
Hungary
LithuaniaNetherlands
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
SwedenUnited Kingdom

NuclearTWh (2004)
44.9
26.3
21.8
426.8
158.4
11.2
13.9
3.6
15.6
5.2
60.9
75.0
73.5

TOTAL EU 25

937.3

32

BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 2005

55
31
27
78
32
3472
4
55
38
2352
10

# reactors GWe(July 2005)
75.7
6
3.5
4
2.7
59
63.4
1720.3
4
1.8
1
1.2
1
0.4
6
2.5
1
0.7
9
7.6
10
8.9
23
11.9
148

130.6

Nuclear Power in Europe

9Region

Nuclear TWhEU 25

937.3

148

130.6

Bulgaria

15.6

4

2.7

Romania5.1

10.7

EU 28

958.0

153

134.0

Switzerland

25.4

53.2

West Europe

983.4

158

137.2

Russian Federation

133.0

3121.7

Ukraine81.1

1513.1

Total Europe

1197.5

204

172.0

WORLD

2618.6440

367.7

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# reactors GWe

FRONT END*Electr
ic

10%

50%

20%30%

shareholder

20%****

5%5%(2006 shutdown)

Enrichment

37.5
MSWUs**

20%

30% ***

25%

BNFL, URENCO

L E Uranium fuel6,500 t35%

25%

10%15%15%Reactors & Services

370 GWe

25%

15%

15%

10%35%

Reprocessing1,500 t

75%15%10%

BACK END(UO2)

Recycling& MOX fuel*********10OTHERURMECOGeneral25%MINA
Gr TOM
oup20%WE
BST NFL
ING
HOUS
E

Conversion/Chemistry 55,000 tU

AREVA

20%USEC*20%UraniumENCOCA

70,000 t

Mining / Natural*2004
MarketMain Players on the Nuclear Power Marketplace(2004)

JNFL
in future
10%150 t

Publicly traded company
Separative Work Units
Of which half purchased from MINATOM (HEU)
Plus the 15% sold to USEC (HEU)BB EU Nuclear Status GLOBAL October 200590%

BNFL/SMP
a/c 2004€6.6B in 2004 sales

JNFL
in future

AREVA and URENCO JV* in centrifuge technology

BNFL
33%

Dutch
Gov’t.
33%

RWE+E.on

ETC(1)(URENCO-COGEMA JV)

33%

Established in 2003

AREVA
COGEMA

Centrifuge design
and manufacturing
NewURENCO

R&D andtechnology(Holding)

UEB - URENCO
SWU production+Marketing and sales

centrifuges

2003 capacity
6 million SWU
Rapid growth rate(1) Enrichment Technology Company
1150%

50%

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Centrifuge production
capacity
1 million SWU / year

centrifugesThird parties

Minority
holders

centrifuges

GBII project
SWU production+Marketing and sales
Capacity
EURODIF: 10 million SWU
GB II 2007: 0.3 million SWU
2018: 7.5+ million SWU*Subject to ratification of intergovernmental treaty (NL, Germany, UK, France)

Vendors’Share of LWR-HWR Capacity (MWe)MWe installed
120,000

AREVA

BNFL

(92)

100,000

Westinghouse
(103)

(1)
SIE (6)(16)

80,000ABB (10)
ABB-CE (14)FRA

W

60,000GeneralElectric
FAAE
VVER

40,000(69)(79)

20,000BW0(7)Hitachi(50) Toshiba*
AECL

Mitsubishi*
Doosan*(18)
(8)

(29)

BWR

PHWR

PWR

(53)
(31)

*Licensed by: Westinghouse to Mitsubishi and Doosan G.E. to Hitachi/Toshiba** Following Framatome's purchase of the commercial reactors business from B&W at the end of the 1990s, AREVA may beconsidered as the preferred service partner for these reactors in the United States, although it is not liable as a constructor
Source: AREVA
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The Evolution of Nuclear Power
Current
Reactors

FirstReactors

1950

1970

1990

FutureSystems

AdvancedReactors

2010

2030

2050

2070

Generation I

UNGG
CHOOZ

Generation IIREP 900
REP 1300
N4GenerationIII
GenerationIVEPR?
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2090

« Generation 3 » Nuclear Plants

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Production costs of EPR vs CCGT€/MWhProduction costs

4540

FOAK

35
30
25
CCG

20

EPR

15

2,43,33,64,7Gas price ($/MBtu)
CO2 not included
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Ok 3 Supplier Consortium
Framatome ANP and Siemens PG
X Framatome ANP: overall project coordination (including functional andtechnical integration of the complete plant), Nuclear Island (Nuclear Steam Supply System plus Balanceof the Nuclear Island), Instrumentation and Control plus Simulator for the wholeplant,

 supply of the first core of fuel assemblies.
X Siemens PG:

 Turbine Island.

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Site Works at Olkiluoto (Finland) spring
2004

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Concrete pouring August 2005

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EPR Reactor Vessel

19

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EPR Steam Generator

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GEN IV : paves the way for a sustainable
nuclear energy¾ New requirements for sustainable nuclearenergy• Gradual improvements in :9 Competitiveness
9 Safety and reliability¾ New applications :zConcepts withbreakthroughs
9 Minimization of wastes
9 Preservation of resources
9 Resistance to Proliferation

9 hydrogen production
9 water desalination
9 direct use of heatFranceU.S.A.

¾ Penetration of new markets :9 emerging countries
9 small countries
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UnitedKingdom
E.U.
Génération

CanadaBrazilIVInternational
Forum
Members

Argentina
South Africa

Switzerland
Japan

South Korea

Different systems for different
applications
HydrogenElectricity Generation
NearTermSystems
2000

2220052010

Waste Burndown
Fissile Creation
2015

2020

2025

2030

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2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

2060

2065

Capability to target new applications
Nuclear energy will be essential for :X

Electrical power generation

HydrogenHydrogen

OxygenOxygenNuclear
Nuclear Heat
Heat

1O
2 2

H2400 C
H2+… but also for new applications :X

Hydrogen production

X

Direct use of Heat

X

Sea water desalination

Very High Temperature Reactor
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Rejected
RejectedHeat
Heat100
100CC

2HI

I2I (Iodine)
Circulation

900 C

2H I
I2I2++ H2O + SO2+H2O

H 2O

WaterWater

Fuel Cell Prototypevehicle(hydrogen)

H2SO4

H2SO412 O2+SO2+H2O

S (Sulfur)
Circulation
SO2+H 2O

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Nuclear Generation Forecasts 2003-2030(IAEA July 2004)
1600
1400
2003
1200
2010 l2010 h1000
800?

2020 l2020 h600
4002030 l
2030 h200
0N Amer
25L Amer Eur W Eur E

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Africa ME+AsEFar East

24 708 EU25 citizens…

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Some Results of EUROBAROMETER 277

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EU 25
Hungary
SwedenCzech Republic
Lithuania
Finland
Slovakia
FranceNetherlands
Belgium
United Kingdom
Slovenia
Estonia
LatviaGermany
Luxemburg
Italy
Denmark
PolandPortugal
Malta
Spain
Ireland
CyprusGreeceAustria29

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Nuclear supporter : male, educated, right-wing

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Even in Europe : a Change of Mood ?

X Finland and France order new plants
X German phaseout not supported by CDU-CSU
X After Baerseback, no new Swedish shutdown in theplanning
X New EU Members much more supportive – Likely toinfluence the EP
X Swiss antinuke referendum widely beaten
X UK White Paper still « in » ?
X Even in Italy, nuclear non longer « taboo »33

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