EN ER G Y PLA N N IN G A N D TH E TR A N SITIO N TO WA R D S
R EN EWA B LE EN ER G Y SYSTEM SPOUL ALBERG ØSTERGAARDPROFESSOR, ENERGY PLANNING
AALBORG UNIVERSITY - DENMARKAgenda•••What wasWhat isWhat might
will bebe2What was3

Development through external energy contribution

4

Development through external energy contribution

Sources: The Internet & La Première phaseindustrielle Au Canada (1850-1900)

5Development through external energy contribution•Energy is a prerequisite for human development•Today the metabolic energy demand is about 1/20th of the fuel-based energy of an average Danish
man and mankind has gone from a simple metabolic lifeform to a lifeform operating through a large
external energy use – exometabolism

6Global energy trends
300

250

Index [1970=100]

200

Global population

150

Primary energy supply
CO2 emission
Global GDP

100

500
1950

1960

1970

1980
Year

1990

2000

2010

7

What is8

Relative performance of selected countries

TPES vs GDP
8
US

TPES per Capita [toe]

7
FI

SA

6

BE

5KO4FRNOSEDE
DK3GRHU

2CHCN

1TZ KE IN SU00510152025
GDP per Capita [1000 US$]303540459

An example: Danish energy supply over the last 30 years

1000900

Energy use [PJ]

800
700

Total Primary
Energy Supply

600

TPES

500

RES

400

Renewable
EnergySources

300
200
10001980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

10

From a central to a distributed energy system

1985
2013

Central CHP
Local CHPWind
Off-shore wind
AC Interconnection
DC interconnection

11Maps: Danish Energy Agency

1400

70

1200

60

1000

50

800

40

Wind share in Western Denmark

600

30400

2020002002

10Annual hours above 100% wind in Western Denmark

2004

2006

2008

2010
YearWind share [%]Wind above 100% of demand [h/year]

The issue of excess power generation

20122014

20160201812

A week in Western Denmark
Qualifies for a namein the future

Production and demand [MW]5000

Huricane Huricane

Incognito

4500
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
01

Mon

25

49

Tue

Wed

73

97

ThuFri

121

Sat145Sun

Hour (Relative to midnight January 5 2015)
Demand.

+Central+Local

Wind

Demand.

13

What might be

14

Options for energy production under Danish conditions

Energy potential [kWh/m2]

1000

100

GrossElectricity
101
Solar collector

Solar cells

Wind power

Biomass

Multiple competing needs for biomass:
Food, fodder, fibre, fertilizer, feedstock, forests – and fuel15

Trends, solutions and implications••••

Small biomass availability which must be used wisely.
Large fluctuating power availability
Potentially large imbalances
Electrification of the energy system

16Electrification of the energy system••••

Heating- heat pumps and improved climate screens
Transportation - electricity where possible – otherwise power-to-x
Industry- electricity where possible – otherwise power-to-x
Others- electricity

17Revisiting Week 2500

4500
400

4000
3500

300

3000
2500

200

2000
100

1500
1000

Electricity price [DKK/MWh]

Production and demand [MW]

5000

0500
0-100
1

Mon

25

Tue49

Wed73

Thu97Fri 121

Sat

145

Demand.

SunHour (Relative to midnight January 5 2015)
Demand.

+Central+Local

Wind

NordPool18

Issues in future renewable energy systems•••

Integration – matching demand and supply
Market issues
Investment issues•

Barriers relating to• Acceptance• Ownership• Operation
• ….

19

Electricity spot market prices in Western Denmark

4000

Wind power production [MWh/h]35003000
2500
2000
1500
1000
5000-600-400-2000200400600
Spot market price in DK West [DKK/MWh]

800

1000

1200

1400

200DKK= 27€
20

Electricity spot market prices in Western Denmark

Spot market price DK West
[DKK/MWh]

1400
1200
1000
800
600
400

200DKK= 27€

2000-200-400-600
0730

1460

2190

2920

3650

4380
5110
Duration [Hours]

5840

6570

7300

8030

8760

Is cheap electricity good?

21

Needed: New energy market
••••
•
•

Where wind and PV do not lower the price level (too much..)Where bidding is not necessarily short-term marginal cost-based
Where demand stabilises prices
Where thermal facilities can afford not to operate – and to operate
Where flexible technologies supply the required flexibility
Where forecasting demands are limited as much as possible

22

Costs of renewable vs conventional energy systems
500• Sunk costs

Yearly costs [Million €]

400

300
Electricity trade• A shift from modest investment costs andhigh running costs to high investment costs
and modest running costs

CO2-tax200

Operation andMaintenance
Fuel

100

Investment - rail
Investment

0
Vision 2050

2050 Reference-100

23Energy costs – supply, demand and a touch of uncertainty

24

Energy costs – supply, demand and a touch of uncertainty

25

Source: BPExample of a previous investment problem••

CHP Plants planned under an assumption of increasing electricity process and relatively stable fuel(natural gas) costs
Instead, electricity prices fell, and natural gas prices increased thus eroding economic feasibility ofthese plants

26

Needed: Financial certainty and motivation• Low discount rate for public investments• Floor prices for fossil fuels• (And market adaption as touched upon before)

27

Integrating renewable electricity
Matching supply and demand throughout the year

28

Photo: Wikipedia

Solution 1: Interconnection

29

Solution 2: Trading••

Trading is only relevant if there are differences
Trading should be among “unequals”

30Solution 3: Flexible electricity demand•••

A house uses 3-5 MWh per year for ordinary electricity demand
A house uses 5-6 MWh per year for heating and domestic how water using
heat pumps (obviously mainly in the winter)
An electric vehicle uses 2-3 MWh per year

• Limited flexibility in load shifting within
ordinary electricity load
• Integration across traditional demand sectors
and utilisation of local flexibility; smart energysystem• Makes trading relevant once selling andbuying becomes a conscious decision rather
than a natural consequence of the weather

31Summarising••••

We are looking into a heavily electrified electricity system based to an even higher extent on fluctuating
power production
We cannot rely on trade with our neighbours to solve the issue of balancing the electricity system –particularly when factoring in similar developments in different places
Geographic differences do not offer sufficient variability or flexibility
We need to activate the inherent flexibility in house heating and transportation – while the flexibility inthe traditional electricity system will not give much support to the general electricity system

32

EN ER G Y PLA N N IN G A N D TH E TR A N SITIO N TO WA R D S
R EN EWA B LE EN ER G Y SYSTEM SPOUL ALBERG ØSTERGAARDPROFESSOR, ENERGY PLANNING
AALBORG UNIVERSITY - DENMARK