POST-PANDEMIC
INDUSTRIESOpportunities for EU & Japanese Businesses in
Adapting Together, to a post-COVID-19 World

About the EU-Japan Centre forIndustrial Cooperation
The Centre is a joint venture established in 1987 by the European Commission (DG GROW) and the Japanese
Government (METI) for promoting all forms of industrial, trade and investment cooperation between the EU andJapan. It is jointly funded and managed by both sides. It has its head office in Tokyo and an office in Brussels.
Source: EU-Japan.EU

www.eu-japan.eu

office@eu-japan.eu@EUJapanCentre

About the Author
Paul van der Plas is a Marketing & Communications specialist, and Industry Intelligence Analyst. His main areas ofexpertise are International Trade and Intercultural Marketing & Communications. The author has over eight yearsof consulting experience, serving international clients from both the private and public sector.

www.linkedin.com/in/
paulvanderplasmba/

paulvanderplas@gmail.com

2Disclaimer
The content of the following report are based solely on views of the author and therefore do not necessarilyreflect those of the EU-Japan Centre of Industrial Cooperation or its stakeholders. While the preparation for thisreport was executed with a great care for accuracy, the author and the EU-Japan Centre cannot be held
accountable for any errors.

3

Executive Summary
The 2020 pandemic has caused an incredible disruption in the global economy, with its aftermath being felt in every
corner of the world and in every industry. Our scrambling to adjust, gave way to a whole range of technological, political,
and social changes, many of which expected to have long lasting effects. In some cases, or so is speculated, the pandemic
may have forever changed the way we live our lives and conduct business. That is not to say however, that all of thesedevelopments are necessarily undesirable.

The Research
The situation demanded for fast innovation and resourcefulness, resulting in some truly impressive achievements. This
research mainly focusses on the (potentially) positive developments, and what they mean for international SMEs. The
research explores the policy changes, business practices, and technological advancements during the pandemic, with astrong emphasis on the technological advancements in particular. These analyses will provide valuable insights in the
many developments and advancements, and serve the overall purpose of encouraging entrepreneurial activity inEuropean and Japanese SMEs.

A Summary of Events
In a matter of months, the world went from a relatively stable situation to one where one economy after the other would
shut down, borders were closed, and people would effectively be stuck inside their homes. By April the virus has reachedpractically every country, region, and territory in the world, at which point an estimated one third of the world ’s
populations was subjected to restrictions of movement in efforts of containing the virus. The course of events was rather
tumultuous, with the situation improving in one region while deteriorating in another at the same time. The
characteristic waves of infection, often caused restrictions to be lifted only to be reinstated later. This remained to be th ecase in 2021 as well, but the global approval and deployment of several vaccines gave hope for a nearing recovery.

A Sustainable Recovery
Once the true impact became clear, many came to the realisation that the approach to solve the situation could haveserious implications on itself. Some worried for example, that the looming economic downturn would distract from theever worsening environmental situation. However others, notably the chairman of the World Economic Forum, suggested
that the pandemic rather offered an opportunity for a ‘great reset’, and to reshape the world in a way that is more in linewith the Unite Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals. The agenda (in short) suggests that the world puts its efforts intocreating a ‘stakeholder economy’ that is more resilient and sustainable on the long run by utilising the innovations fromthe fourth industrial revolution.

The fourth industrial revolution, or ‘Industry 4.0’, follows the digital revolution and is characterised by the fusion of thetechnological, digital, and biological domains. This revolution is expected to have a great systems impact by giving way toemerging technologies like artificial intelligence, 3D printing, cloud computing, and advanced robotics.

Digitalisation During the Pandemic
Many of these emerging technologies proved to be of great value in adjusting to the pandemic. The digital solutions inparticular, enabled businesses and governments to continue their activities. Late 2020, in became clear that the
pandemic had accelerated the digital adoption and transition at an incredible pace, in some cases achieving in months
what otherwise would have taken years or even a decade. Organisations, large and small, reported drastically increased
investments in digitalisation and automation solutions. Interestingly enough, many reported that the transition process
was done much faster than previously thought possible. Another interesting result, was that the essential investments
and adoption of new technologies took away managerial reluctance, a prominent cause of lagging adoption rates.
Worldwide, more than half of businesses said to have accelerated automation and digitalisation efforts, with the highest
percentages in developed economies like Europe and Japan.
The adoption of new solutions facilitated (for example) the massive shift to remote work during the pandemic. Surveys
found that more than 80% of global businesses required or facilitated remote work to some form or degree. This waslargely made possible by solutions like cloud computing, the internet -of-things, and artificial intelligence. In a similar way,
the use of digital technologies allowed for the collective shift to online services. During the pandemic the use of
ecommerce and online services exploded, resulting in 10% of additional growth. This also accelerated the overall digital
adoption, reaching 95% in both Japan and the EU in 2020.

4

Emerging Technologies
The technologies that played the most vital roles during the pandemic are (perhaps not surprising) the ones with the mostprominent roles in ‘Industry 4.0’ as well. This research found seven emerging technologies that define the ‘revolution’, and will
be of increasing importance in the years to come. These technologies are also characterised by a strong interdependence, as
their applications often overlap and/or compliment each other.
1. Cloud computing (offered solutions for remote work, adoption grew drastically, in particular in IT and government)
2. Internet-of-Things (high investments due to pandemic, high adoption in health care sector and consumer market)
3. Big Data (drastic growth due to shift to digital and online, highest adoption in IT, transport and consumer market)
4. Cyber security (growth due to remote work and increased online activity, highest adoption in government and IT)
5. Artificial intelligence (growth linked to big data, IoT, and robotics. Highest adoption in IT, health care and transport)
6. Robotics (growth for service robots and automation solutions in particular, with the highest adoption in manufacturing)
7. 3D printing (main growth drivers are automotive, aerospace and healthcare, highest adoption in manufacturing)

The years to Come
As mentioned, the pandemic showed that one of the main hurdles in technological adoption was managerial reluctance, not thetechnologies and solutions available. With this (largely) out of the way, and the benefits of implemented solutions beginning toshow, it appears that many of the changes will be lasting. In fact, 75% of global executive expect to see increased investments intechnologies over the next few years. This goes in particular for technologies related to cloud computing, big data, cybersecurity, IoT, and E-commerce.
The investments in digitalisation and automation that enabled the shift to remote work, also ensure that this phenomenon will
likely remain much more common than it would have been without the pandemic. This will especially be the case in advanced
economies, where a significant percentage of the workforce can effectively perform a large part of their work from home.
A similar lasting change is expected for the use of E-commerce and online services. As both businesses and consumers have
moved/become accustomed to online channels, it is unlikely this will all reverse after the pandemic resides. In fact, more thanhalf of the consumers expect to maintain using online channels more often than they did before the pandemic. The largest
growth is expected for the use of services related to content streaming, fitness, food delivery, and social media purchases.

In Summation
The main finding, or most notable development, is without a doubt the incredible advancements in technological adoption andthe drastic changes they have made possible. The overarching theme here, is the momentous shift from in-person and onlocation to online and remote. Whether it is E-commerce or remote work, the accelerated digitalisation and automation brought
about by the pandemic has firmly settles the ‘industry 4.0’ technologies into our lives. With that, it has also brought closer theambition of a ‘green recovery’, where we utilise these new technologies to create more sustainable and resilient economies.

Recommendations
With these insights in current developments and what they mean for the coming years in mind, there are a number of important
recommendations for businesses preparing for the post-pandemic world and ‘industry 4.0’:• Dot not fall behind in the digitalisation process. Do not underestimate the speed at which current developments take place,nor the potential risk of falling behind.

• Take the opportunity to assess and adjust. Leverage this transitional period to establish an effective and ‘future proof’
strategy, and explore new options and markets.

• Make use of the transition to ‘online’ and ‘remote’. Utilise the plethora of new solutions available to improve youroperations and ‘future proof’ your business.

• Do not give up on sustainability goals and efforts. While finding solutions for today’s challenges, do not lose sight of otherimportant issues, and plan for the long term.

5

Table of Content 1/2① INTRODUCTION• Research Purpose and Objectives

8
9• 2020: The Prologue

10• From Local Outbreak to Global Pandemic

10• 2021: Memorable Turning Point or Dreary Sequel?

13② THE PANDEMIC: RECOVERY OR RESET?

14• The Commitment to a Sustainable Recovery

15• The Great Reset

17• Industry 4.0

18• The Need for (Digital) Adaption

19• The Pandemic: A Wake-up Call

20

• The Way We Work24

• The Way We Buy

25③ FRONTIER TECHNOLOGIES, OR FLEETING FADS?

29• Cloud Computing

30• The Internet-of-Things

32• Big Data

35

• Cyber Security37• Artificial Intelligence39• Robotics

41• 3D Printing

42

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Table of Content 2/2④ THE ROAD AHEAD

44• The Years to Come: Technology Adoption

45• The Years to Come: Work, Life, and Work-life48• The Years to Come: E-commerce and Consumer Behaviour

51⑤ THE EPILOGUE

54• Key Findings

55• Recommendations & Suggestions

57⑥ REFERENCES

58⑦ APPENDIX

73

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❶

Introduction
It seems that ever since early 2020, our lives have revolved around the pandemic. Not surprising, as it has been
the absolute centre of attention for well over a year. This goes of course for the pandemic ’s extensive media
attention, but just as well for the coverage it received in academic research and economic analyses. While allthis attention is understandable and (in many cases) absolutely crucial, a constant exposure to the many
worrisome developments by itself, creates uncertainty and turmoil. This introduction, to yet another publicationon the pandemic’s effects, might raise some questions as to the purpose of this research. However this research,takes somewhat of a different approach, aiming to provide a more optimistic and forward -looking assessment of
the situation.

8❶The Research, its Purpose and Objectives
The research, in short, aims to show
how the pandemic has affected ourindustries so far, and how it will in theyears to come. In this assessment, we
will focus in particular on the more
promising developments.
To do so, the research includes ananalysis of 1) policy responses, 2)changes in business practices, and 3)
technological advancements that canbe attributed to the pandemic. These
analyses will rely on both secondaryand primary sources, includinginterviews with industry experts.
The next step in the research is toanswer the question of which of thepolicychanges,newbusinesspractices,
andtechnologicaladvancements will remain once thepandemic subsides. This, is thenfollowed by an assessment of theeconomic and social impact (andbenefits) of these changes on the longrun. The focus will lie here with theambitionofmoresustainableeconomies and societies, and how the
pandemic could have brought thesegoals closer.
The final product serves to inform, inspirit, andinspire those (businesses) affected by the pandemic,
in particular SMEs that operate on an international
level.
As such, it is important to note, this report iscomposed around, and focused at, the opportunitiesand (potentially) positive developments resulting
from the pandemic, rather than the challenges. Thisfocus should however, by no means, be interpreted
as an underestimate of the complex situation, nor asa trivialisation of the immense hardship andsuffering the pandemic has caused.

9❶2020: The Prologue
Within the twelve months of 2020, a mostly unnoticed and local event in mainland China evolved into
a global catastrophe with a momentous (and possibly lasting) social and economic impact. Because somuch happened in this tumultuous year, and it all
unfolded at such an unprecedented speed, it would
help to start with a brief recap before moving on to

the main research. Also because, in the context of
this research, it is important to acknowledge theextent, and sheer speed at which the world had to
adapt to an unfamiliar situation. This chapter will
therefore, (chronologically) outline the main developments on a global level, followed by a short synopsis of Europe and Japan respectively.

From Local Outbreak to Global Pandemic
On December 30th 2019, just before the new year,
a report of a ‘viral pneumonia’ outbreak in China’s
Hubei province gets its first international attention 1,
and is picked up by international media outlets thenext day 2. One week later, Chinese scientists
investigating the pneumonia outbreak announce
the discovery of a new type of corona virus 3 . The
next day, January 8th, the virus is found in a Chinese
expat returning to South Korea 4. Again one day
later, the World Health Organization (WHO) reports
the new corona virus being isolated in a Chinesepneumonia patient 5. In the same announcement,theWHOadvices
governments
againstimplementing travel restrictions on China. By theend of January, the virus was found in 25 countries
in Asia, Europe, North America, and the Middle
East6. On January 30 th, 10 days after Chinesescientists confirm the virus is human-to-humantransmissible 7, the WHO labels the virus outbreak a“public health emergency of international concern”,
although still advises against any travel
restrictions 8.
In February, while the virus spreads to 35 morecountries (including the first in Africa and SouthAmerica), the first virus related deaths outside of
China are confirmed 6. In efforts of slowing down
the outbreak, several countries have closed theirborders 9, 10 or imposed travel restrictions for either
its own citizens or visitors from abroad 11~14.
On the first of March, the global death toll from thedisease, now named ‘COVID-19’, passes the three
thousand 15. In the weeks that follow the number of
infections increases dramatically, and by the end of
the month the virus will have spread to 149 newcountries and territories, with the global death tollhaving surpassed 30,000 16, 17. In response, various

2020

January+9.4K
Cases*+196
Deaths*+26
Places**(9.9K Total)(213 Total)(27 Total)

February*Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
**Countries and territories reporting first cases.

+74.2K
Cases*+2.7K
Deaths*+37
Places**(84.1K Total)(2.9K Total)(64 Total)*Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
**Countries and territories reporting first cases.

March

+710K

Cases

*

(799K Total)

April

+36K
Deaths*+149
Places**(39.7K Total)(213 Total)*Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
**Countries and territories reporting first cases.

+2.24M
Cases*+181K
Deaths*+13
Places**(3.2M Total)(232K Total)(226 Total)*Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
**Countries and territories reporting first cases.

10❶governments worldwide have declared a state of
emergency 18~21 and imposed restrictions of
movement22~25, putting an estimated one-third of
the world’s population under lockdown 26.
Early April, global covid-cases pass one and a half
million 27, while countries keep struggling to containthe virus 6, 28. In some places however, the situation
appeared to have improved enough forgovernments to ease some of the restrictions 29, 30,
31. The same month, the US announces it will halt
its funding of the WHO due to dissatisfaction of its
response to the virus outbreak 32.
In May, the global counter for confirmed infections
passed 6 million 33. Latin America in particular,
suffered heavily from the pandemic’s fallout34, 35.
Nevertheless, the situation in some countries
allowed governments to start lifting restrictions 36.
Early June, despite global infections reaching arecord high 37, various countries in Asia 38, 39, 40,
Europe41, 42, and the Middle East43, 44 started easing
restrictions. In many places however, the situation
was still critical 45~48. Throughout the month, theoverall infections, as well as casualties, kept
increasing, following an upwards trend in every
region of the world 49.
In July there are various reports of regional
infection spikes, in some cases of record height 50~54.
Halfway through July, the global infections soar tounprecedented levels, increasing rapidly by the
day 55, 56, 57. While the American continent is stillaffected worst by the virus at this point 58, 59, 60,concern grows over developments in Africa as
well61, 62, 63.
This trend continues throughout August, with more
reports of surging infections from Latin America 64,
65, 66, Asia67, 68, 69, and Europe 70~73 (also see
Appendix 1). By the end of the month, the numberof infections in Latin America would pass sevenmillion 74. The WHO, citing an International
Monetary fund (IMF) research, announces that, at
this point, the pandemic is costing the global
economy an estimated US$375 billion a month 75.
Meanwhile Russia is the first to announce theapproval of a COVID-19 vaccine76, with production

May

+2.71
Cases*+130K
Deaths*(6.1M Total)(373K Total)

140
Places in
Lockdown***Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
*Countries and territories with restrictions on movement 108.

June

+4.17M
Cases*+130K
Deaths*(10.5M Total)(509K Total)

123
Places in
Lockdown***Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
*Countries and territories with restrictions on movement108.

July+6.72M
Cases*+157K
Deaths*(17.6M Total)(676K Total)

127
Places in
Lockdown***Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
**Countries and territories with restrictions on movement108.

August+7.16M
Cases*+162K
Deaths*(25.2M Total)(847K Total)

119
Places in
Lockdown***Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
**Countries and territories with restrictions on movement108.

September+8.24M
Cases*+158K
Deaths*(34M Total)(1M Total)

120
Places in
Lockdown***Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
**Countries and territories with restrictions on movement108.

11

❶starting a few days later 77.
In September the pandemic’s global death tollpassed one million 78. Overall however, the global
infection rate did seem to stabilize, mainly thanks
to the statistics from the American continent 79.
That said, in Europe the growth rate is back at thelevel of March, when the outbreak reached its firstpeak 80.

Things take a turn for the worse again in October79,
during which the global number of confirmed cases
reaches 40 million 81. In Europe in particular, thesituation is deteriorating rapidly 82, forcing multiple
countries to impose strict countermeasures 83~87.
(also see Appendix 1)This second wave continues in November. In just 21
days, global infections increases with 10 million
more cases 88. The majority of the new confirmed
cases are still coming from the European andAmerican continents 88. On a positive note, both
European and American vaccine developers reportpromising interim results 89, 90.
In December, countries worldwide hurry to pushforward their vaccination schedules 91~98. However
any optimism is short lived, as reports of two newvirus mutations from the UK 99 and South Africa 100
raise many questions and concerns abouttransmissibility and efficacy of the vaccines. Notlong after their discovery, reports of the new virus
mutations having spread 101, 102, 103, result in various
countries (re)imposing travel restrictions 104, 105.
By January 2021, only 12 months after its firstoccurrence outside of China, the virus has caused 2
million deaths 106 and many more people suffering.

October+11.5M
Cases*+168K
Deaths*(46.1M Total)(1.2M Total)

114
Places in
Lockdown***Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
**Countries and territories with restrictions on movement 108.

November+16.2M
Cases*+264K
Deaths*(63.4M Total)

118

Places in**(1.47M Total) Lockdown*Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
**Countries and territories with restrictions on movement108.

December+19.5M
Cases*+341K
Deaths*(83.5M Total)(1.83M Total)

132
Places in
Lockdown***Monthly absolute change in confirmed cases & deaths107.
**Countries and territories with restrictions on movement108.

January 2021
Sources:
Ourworldindata.org

12❶2021: Memorable Turning Point or Dreary Sequel?
Saying our goodbyes to an arduous 2020, the world
entered 2021 on a moderately more positive note.
The US elections had just (more or less) been
finalized 153, the EU and the UK concluded
negotiations on the ‘Brexit withdraw agreement’154,
and the pharmaceutical industry reported success inthe development and approval of several COVID-19
vaccines 155. While all (very welcome) reasons forrelieve and optimism, in regard to the pandemic theworld was far from out of the woods yet.
With the global economy still suffering, newoutbreaks occurring worldwide, and worrying
reports of new virus variants 156, it seemed that thetheme for 2021 would be, once more, the world
battling the pandemic. This time however, the world
has a year of experience under its metaphoricalbelt, and providing we know how to put thisknowledge to use, 2021 could in fact turn out to be
an important pivotal point in history.
This does come with a big asterisk of course, namely
the “if” in this last statement. Better put, there is noquestion about 2021 going down the history books
as a memorable year, but whether it will be
remembered as ‘the great turning point’, rather
than a dreary sequel to 2020 remains yet to be
seen. As such, now is the time to look back andevaluate, to gather and share all we have learned
and put this towards a comprehensive exit strategy
from the pandemic.

That said though, while it might be the mostprominently present one at the moment, weshouldn’t forget the pandemic isn’t the only
challenge the world is currently facing. Before being
blindsided by the COVID outbreak, the climate issue
was on top of the global challenges list, and forgood reason 157. But it remains, of course, a very
urgent matter that requires our immediate
attention. This urgency is only emphasised by thefact that two issues are likely to be far moreinterrelated than one might initially realise. Because
not only have the effects of climate change
exacerbated the COVID situation, it were in factsome of the very same issues responsible forclimate change, which facilitated a local virus
outbreak in becoming a pandemic in the first place.
Therefore, the most obvious take-away here is thatto effectively address the world’s most acutechallenges, the right approach is a holistic one,
aiming for substantial, sustainable, and long-termchanges. After all, if these different issues sharecommon causes, they could just as well sharecommon solutions. As such, 2021 should be a yearof reassessing our societies and economies, andhow they are structured. This way, perhaps, 2021
could be a true turning point. So much so even, that
we could in fact come out of this crisis better off
than we were entering it.

13

❷

The Pandemic: Recover or Reset?
Considering the amount of extensive changes the pandemic has brought about, it wouldn ’t be that much of a
hyperbole to say that it will go down in history as a major turning point. This, of course, applies more to some
aspects of life than others. One of the main areas where the pandemic is expected to have a revolutionary
impact, is on our economies and the way we do business. An impact which, in its turn, will have far reaching
implications for our social, environmental, and economic situation. With a bit of optimism however, this could
be seen as an opportunity rather than a concern. Or as the World Economic Forum suggested: “COVID-19 offersa chance to reset and reshape the world in a more sustainable way”158.

14

❷The Commitment to a Sustainable Recovery
Back in 2020, when the true impact of thepandemic was becoming clear, calls to not have thiscrisis distract us from our efforts on climate change
emerged from organisations like the EOCD, the UN,
and the IMF 159, 160. The concern was that, in reaction
to the sudden economic downturn caused by the
pandemic, governments would prioritise (shortterm) economic and industrial interests over longterm environmental ones. While understandable,
this fear turned out to be mostly unfounded as bothworld and business leaders seemed committed tokeep their recovery strategies in line with their longterm goals for a more sustainable world 161, 162, 163.
So much so, in fact, that the term ‘green
recovery’ (one with a particular focus on

and the EU (as well as the individual member
states) , both climate objectives and the digitaltransition were given high priority. The EU for
example, announced its largest ever stimulus
package, amounting to over €2 trillion * comprisedof both a long term budget and an additional
recovery package of €807 billion * (NGEU) 167. Of thisbudget, about 21% will be allocated towards climate
goals and sustainability 168. Another 8%, is
specifically meant to promote the European digitaltransition. These same priorities are also evident in
the recovery plans and budgets of the individual
member states. Germany for example, announced a€130 billion recovery plan, of which at least 42% isallocated towards measures supporting climate

sustainability and climate goals) has become widelyadopted when talking about battling the
pandemic 164.

change objectives, and 52% to supporting the digitaltransition efforts 169. Similarly, of Italy’s €191.5
billion recovery plan, 37% is allocated towards
climate and sustainability measures, and 25%
towards digitalisation 170. A similar prioritisation ofclimate measures and digital transformation is seenin the recovery plans of other European countries aswell171, 172. In the case of Europe, this shows that
despite the pandemic, there still is a strong

This commitment is also found in Japan and the EU.
Under the Paris agreement signed in 2016, bothhave committed to ambitious targets for reducing
their emissions on the short and long term 165, 166.
However, in the recovery plans announced by Japan* when adjusted for inflation

15

❷
dedication towards creating a sustainable future
and continuing to facilitate the digital transition.

2050, and another JP¥1 trillion is meant to accelerate
the country’s digitalisation process.

In December 2020, Japan announced a JP¥73.6 trillion
package in efforts of negating the pandemic’s impact
on the Japanese economy173. This package includesJP¥40 trillion in direct fiscal spending and initiatives
that are, amongst others, aimed at the country’s
environmental and technological ambitions174. For
example, JP¥2 trillion is directed towards a fund meant
to help Japan reach climate neutrality by the year

Of course, these are far from all of Japan’s andEurope’s policy efforts regarding the environment anddigitalisation. However the examples do show thesegovernments haven’t abandoned their ambitions onthese challenges. If anything, dedication only seems tohave increased this year, as many countries aroundthe world have reviewed and sharpened their goals175,
176, 177.

16

❷The Great ResetAt the 50 th annual meeting of the World Economic
Forum (WEF) in June 2020, the announcement wasmade for a twin-summit to be held in January 2021,
named “the Great Reset”178. The theme followed anarticle by the WEF a month earlier, on how the
COVID-19 pandemic provides an opportunity to,rather than just recover, instead “reset andreshape” the world in a manner that is more inpursuant to the United Nation’s Sustainable

endorsements from both world and industry
leaders 180, 181.
The ‘Great Reset’ agenda consists ofcomponents, which largely revolve around 182:••

“The pandemic represents a rare
but narrow window of opportunity
to reflect, reimagine, and reset ourworld”

six

Facilitating a market with “fairer outcomes”, bysetting conditions for creating a ‘stakeholder
economy’.
Use new investments to build a new system
which is more equitable, resilient, andsustainable on the long run, based on
environmental, social, and governance (ESG)
metrics.

Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the WEF

Development Goals (SDG) for 2030 158.
The main three arguments for this agenda arethat158:•••

the pandemic’s lockdowns have shown us how
strongly human activity is related toenvironmental issues (e.g., climate change),
the pandemic has also shown the socioeconomic inequalities around the world andhow they result in a disproportionate level ofvulnerability to any form of disaster or
instability,
and, the importance of economic activity andthe creation of financial value.

As such, the ‘Great Reset’ is proposed to serve as acollective commitment to rebuild the foundations of
the world’s social and economic systems for a more
fair, sustainable, and resilient future 179. The
alternative being, as the initiators argue, is that theexisting crises, exacerbated by the pandemic, will
have consequences which we won’t be able to avert
with “Incremental measures and ad hoc fixes”180.
This belief appeared to be widely shared, as theagenda has already found a broad range ofSource: WEF•

Utilising innovations from the fourth industrial
revolution for the public good.

The third point mentioned, urging to harness thetechnological advancements emerging from thefourth industrial revolution, is interesting inparticular. Firstly because it is actually very much
related to each of the other components. But moreso, because the 2020 pandemic has in fact greatly
accelerated the technological advancements made,as well speeding up the adoption of said
technologies 179.

17

❷
Industry 4.0
The fourth industrial revolution, also referred to as‘Industry 4.0’, follows the third industrial revolution183 which started about half way of the 20 th century. The third revolution, also known as the digital
revolution, represents theshift from analogue electronic
technology to digital electronics. It meant the adoption ofdigital computers, record
keeping, and communication
technologies 184, and is what
ultimately gave way to the‘information age’185.
The notion of the world standing at the beginning of afourth industrial revolution
was introduced in 2015, by
the chairman of the World
Economic Forum (WEF) in anarticle published in Foreign
Affairs 186. The most importantdevelopment that led to theidea of a fourth industrial revolution being in progress, isthe fusion of the physical, thedigital, and the biologicalworlds. What characterises
this development to qualify asa revolution in its own right,
rather than a mere continuation of the digital revolution, is
its velocity, scope, and systems impact 183. The developments, or so is argued, aretaking place at an exponential
rate and will disrupt every industry worldwide. This, inturn, will transform production, management, and governance systems 186. The revolution’s main drivers are believed to be 187:•

Digitalisation and integration of vertical and horizontal value chains,••

Digitalisation of product and service offerings,
Digital business models and customer access.

This development is expected to give way to emerging technologies in particular, like: robotics, artificial
intelligence, 3D printing, nanotechnology, quantum computing, biotechnology, energy
storage, autonomous vehicles,
and the internet of things 183.
To paraphrase the WEF, thefourth industrial revolution
will fundamentally change theway we live and work, it haslead us to rethink how countries develop, organisations
create value, and how everyone (regardless of their background) can benefit from innovation188. As would to be expected with such a major transition, the fourth industrial
revolution comes with great
opportunities, as well as somechallenges. For example how
to regulate and oversee thesefrontier technologies to ensure they indeed serve thegreater good by contributing
to humanity’s most urgent
concerns 188. Then there is theunpredictable, but potentially
far reaching, effect of new‘general purpose’ technologies(like artificial intelligence), as
they have the ability of disrupting
entireindustry188
groups . Even when assuming that new technologies andtheir applications do in fact
offer a valuable solution ofsome sort, there is still thechallenge of ‘inclusion’, i.e.,making this new technology accessible everywhere,by everyone188.

18

❷The Need for (Digital) Adaption
Faced with the challenge of containing the virus
outbreak, one for which there was no effective drugor vaccine at the time, the first course of action wasto ‘contain and mitigate’ (as mentioned earlier). This
meant, for all intents and purposes, to reduce
human-to-human contact (regardless of setting oroccasion) as effectively as possible. This, of course,
left for a series of incredibly disrupting measures,
which effected essentially every aspect of people’s
professional and personal lives. Being the first
responders in this crisis, local and regional
governments had to rely on the available
technological solutions right from the start.
The implementation of digital technologies, allowed
governments everywhere to maintain their essential
public services during times where these wereneeded most during the unfolding crisis. Whenputting in place restrictions of movement, digitalsolutions warranted the public access to (amongst
others)healthcare,
information,
and189
communication services . Digital technologies
have also allowed local and regional governments tomonitor, predict and control the spreading of thevirus 189. Welcome as they were, these solutions didcome with some rather serious concerns. The mainconcerns being those around privacy andaccessibility. Controversy around security andprivacy implications of emerging digital technologies
is nothing new, but the topic did become painfully
relevant due to some of the solutions considered
for containing the COVID-19 virus 190, 191, 192. Then
there is the ‘digital-divide’, the fact that digitaltechnologies, regardless of their effectiveness, are
not necessarily equally accessible to everyone. So
this is especially a concern when the technologies
are implemented to provide the public withessential services, vital information, education, andsocioeconomic interactions 189. As such, local andregional governments will (and have) play a vitalrole in the shaping of digital technologies, as well as
ensuring that the developments happen withhumanity’s best interests at heart 189.
Meanwhile in the private sector, businesses facing
the crisis approached the situation from a different
perspective. For them the restrictions of movement
and economic downturn that followed meant a
direct threat to their existence. Earlier crises, like2008 economic recession, have put a burden on
businesses’ ability to adapt to reclining sales andprofits. Natural disasters, like the 2011 earthquake
in Japan, have disrupted supply chains for certain
industries 193. Trade conflicts have restrictedbusinesses from access to their most important
markets and/or resources. However the 2020
pandemic alone, achieved all of this and then some,as the world had practically shut down for several
months. Scrambling to adapt, for those who could,
often meant to be resourceful and look foralternative solutions. Many of these solutions where
found in new technologies which, may or may nothave been, in use to some extent already. But withnecessity being the mother of invention, thedevelopment and adaptation of new technologies
accelerated at an unprecedented speed.

19

❷The Pandemic: a Wake-up Call
The advancements in the adoption of new digitaltechnologies during the 2020 pandemic occurred at
an incredible pace. A worldwide survey showed thatbusinesses spent a median additional 5% ontechnology during the first months of the pandemic,
or about a (combined) additional US$15 billion aweek 194. According to a McKinsey survey amongnearly 900 respondents from different industries
and regions, businesses have sped up thedigitalisation of their customer and supply-chaininteractions, as well as their internal operation withthree to four years over just a few months’ time195.
Meanwhile the digital or digitally enhanced
offerings in their portfolios was accelerated byseven to ten years, depending on region andindustry. This acceleration was much more
noticeable in industries without (or with less)physical products like healthcare and financial
services, than, for example, consumer packaged
goods 195. The advancements in the digitalisation ofcore internal operations and interactions in the
supply chain, were affected in a similar way, albeit
much more consistent across regions andindustries 195.
Something that was particularly emphasised fromthe research findings, aside from the digitalisation
process itself, was the fact the respondents noted
the adaptions to the pandemic’s fallout werecarried out much faster than they would thoughtpossible. For example, respondents said that thetime required for transitioning to remote working
was (in average) forty times shorter than what they
initially thought needed. Similarly, adapting
advanced technologies in operations and businessdecisions making went twenty-five times faster than
anticipated.

This does suggest that, besides a very urgent
incentive, there was in fact little in the way toadvance the technological transition (i.e., theindustrial revolution) prior to the pandemic. When
asked about this, the respondents admitted that the
pandemic has removed many of the pre-existing
barriers to change 195. These barriers ranged fromtechnological or organisational challenges, to a fearof customers’ resistance to changes. However now
the changes have occurred, the majority of the
respondents expect many of the changes (the more
drastic ones in particular) to be long term or evenpermanent195. A survey by the World Economic
Forum from before the pandemic in 2018, actually
illustrates this very well. The respondents, fromacross the world and various industries, when asked
about the main barriers for adopting newtechnologies, admitted that “not understanding theopportunities” was one of the main reasons 196. In
fact, well over half of all respondents said not tounderstand the opportunities that adopting newtechnologies could offer. The highest percentages
were those in the consumer industry (77%), thehealthcare sector (80%) and the industry of‘chemistry,advancedmaterials&
196
biochemistry’ (75%) . This suggests that, if
anything, the pandemic was an eye-opening eventthat removed any managerial doubt or reluctance inembracing the potential of new technologies andthe benefits they offer.

20❷With that said, the rapid transition to, andadaptation of, new technologies observed during
the pandemic, was not just a showcase of theadaptive capabilities of businesses. It is just as
much, a stern reminder of the fact that acomprehensive ‘digital strategy’, is (or ought to be)
an integral part of the corporate strategy 195, 197. The
pandemic was a rude awakening for those lagging
behind in digitalisation, as they suddenly foundthemselves in an exceedingly disadvantaged
position 198. The organisations with the mosteffective responses to the pandemic, were often
those who invested more in digitalisation, where
the first to experiment, and already had an
extensive range of advanced technologicalcapabilities 195, 198. In their ‘Business Future Ready
Report 2020’, Vodafone assesses businesses on
their ‘future readiness’ according to certain
characteristics, like their attitude towards/use of
new technologies 199. According to the study,
businesses qualified as ‘future ready’ have beenable to cope a lot better with the situation in 2020
than those that were not. For example, despite thepandemic, businesses deemed ‘future ready’ weremore likely to report higher profits than theprevious year (30% vs. 21%) and were less likely toreport lower profits (45% vs. 49%) 199. It’s importantto keep in mind that the adoption of newtechnology was not the only criteria for thequalification of ‘future ready’ as the businessstrategy and adaptability were also taken into
account. As such, it would be safer to assume that,rather than the adoption of new technology alone,
it is a comprehensive incorporation of technologies
in business strategies and business continuity plansthat improves resilience and viability. This
assumption find support from the ‘KPMG CIO Survey
2020’, which was conducted among more than
4.000 respondents, from 83 countries 200. The survey
shows, that from the respondents that self-identify
as ‘digital leaders’ (i.e.,: “being highly effective in
adopting digital technologies to advance theirbusiness strategy”), significantly outperformed
those who did not 200. These ‘digital leaders’ (be21❷their large or small), made higher IT investments
during the pandemic, and were earlier to adopt newtechnologies by effectively picking up the changes in
the market. This flexibility and adaptiveness gavethem a significant competitive advantage over theirpeers.
It seems that the pandemic has in fact opened a lotof eyes in this regard, and has caused a shift inpriorities. For instance, 39% of the Vodafone survey
respondents have said to accelerate theirdigitalisation process in response to the pandemic,
and 36% admitted to accelerating digitalisation
because the pandemic has highlighted weaknesses
in their business models 199.
How fast and how much priorities have shifted was
also made evident by the 2020 ‘Future of Jobs’
survey by the World Economic Forum (WEF). The
survey, with respondents representing 27 countries
and 15 industries, showed that 84% of global
businesses had accelerated the digitalisation ofwork processes in response to the pandemic 196.
When looking at Europe and Japan specifically, it
seemed that the number of businesses that haveaccelerated digitalisation was even higher. In Italyfor example, 100% of respondents said to have sped
up digitising their work processes in response to thepandemic, with the Netherlands, the UK, Spain, andJapan showing very similar percentages ranging
from 93% to 96% 196. While the level of digitalisationin reaction to the pandemic was not uniform acrossindustries, the vast majority of respondents did infact confirm this strategy, with percentages ranging
from 73% to 100% between the various sectors.
Highest were the education sector and the ‘energy
utilities & technologies’ industry, from which all of
the respondents confirmed to have adopted thedigitalisation strategy. However the ‘digitalcommunications & IT', ‘professional services’, andthe transportation industries were quite similar as
percentages ranged from 90% and upwards. Lowest
were advanced manufacturing and the agro-foodindustries, where about three quarters of
respondents confirmed this strategy.
In the same survey, half of the respondents said22❷to have accelerated automating tasks in a responseto the pandemic 196. Once again, looking toEuropean countries and Japan specifically, we see anotably higher percentage. For instance, more than
60% of respondents from Italy, the Netherlands,
Switzerland, Spain, the UK, and Japan confirmed tohave relied on automation in adaption to thepandemic.
When looking at the differences
between industries, we again see the highest
percentages in education, ‘energy utilities &
technologies’, and ‘transportation & storage’ (6470%) 196. But these percentages were relatively highfor advanced manufacturing and healthcare
industries as well (57.7% and 56.25 respectively).
Another study by McKinsey that focusses on Europe,
largely corroborates the previously mentioned
findings. According to this mid 2020 survey, theaverage digital adoption rate in Europe increased
from 81% to 94% during the early months of thepandemic 201. However a much more interestingfinding from this study, is the fact that during the
pandemic, the ‘digital gap’ between European
countries seemed to have shrunk. As mentioned
earlier in this chapter, the ‘digital divide’, or thedisproportion in availability of (or access to) new

technologies, has been one of the main concerns in
the digital transition. Some even feared the ‘divide’
even to be exacerbated by the pandemic. However,in the case of Europe at least, this fear seemed tohave been unfounded.
On a final note, these summarised findings are notmeant to highlight any disparities between different
countries or industries, but merely meant toemphasise how far reaching the pandemic’s effecthas been in accelerating the adoption of newtechnologies. Because, despite of all the hardshipand misery it has brought upon the world, thepandemic has without a doubt, been a major
catalyst in the digital transition, and a massive step
forward towards ‘industry 4.0’. Another importanttakeaway is, how different the (admittedly dire)economic fallout from the pandemic is, whencompared to the 2008 recession. Because, as the
KPMG CIO Survey report highlights, the overall
optimism,
futureoutlook,andconfident
investments are very different from what wasobserved during the 2008 economic crisis 200. Which,when put into perspective, is undoubtedly, a
positive sign.

23

❷The Way We WorkA survey conducted by Gartner among 800 HR
executives worldwide in March 2020, showed that88% of business organisations encouraged or
required their employees to work from home in a
response to the unfolding pandemic 202. A findinglargely in line with that from two other large
surveys, namely the 2020 WEF survey and the
KPMG CIO Survey 2020, which reported 83% 196 and87%200 of their respondents doing the same
respectively. The shift to remote work was highest
in the healthcare and ‘energy utilities &
technologies’ sectors, where all of Gartner’s
respondents said to have increased opportunities
for their employees to work remotely, followed bymining and metals (95%) and education (88%) 202.
Which is quite a difference with some of the othersectors like automotive and transportation (64% and
65% respectively), where business operations notnecessarily allow for adopting remote working on alarge scale. A McKinsey study underlines this issue
by stating that about 70% of time of those in the‘computer-based office’ arena could be effectively
be done from home, while this is only 5-10% for
most other types of work 203.
This sudden shift to remote work was undoubtedly
the most quintessential (and most disruptive)change to our working routine, and one with aconsequential impact on our professional and social
lives. So much so in fact, that words like ‘remotely’,
have become practically synonymous with the 2020
pandemic. In its ‘word of the year 2020’ publication,

Oxford languages showed that use of the words‘remote’ and ‘remotely’ saw a massive surge fromMarch onward 204. The word ‘remotely’ in particular,of which usage increased with 300% compared to
the year before. More interesting in these findings,
was the change in nouns that were used incollocation with ‘remote’ and ‘remotely’, which in2020 were predominantly work and study related(e.g.; ‘working’, ‘learning’, ‘studying’, ‘meeting’)204.
Working from home, also referred to as‘teleworking’ or ‘telecommuting’, is of course
nothing new. In fact, the term ‘telecommuting’dates all the way back to the 1970’s and has seen an
increasing level of adoption since the 1990’s205.
Remote work is also one of the changes that,
despite its initial disruptive nature, is expected tostick around (at the very least for the duration ofrecovery) across industries and regions. This might
not be a bad development however, as the switch
to remote work is said to actually be more costeffective
than
pre-crisis
practices 195.
The
effectiveness, or productivity benefits that resulted
from the shift to working remotely, seem tocoincide with (and possibly result from) an overall
positive reception of the change among
employees206, 207, 208. Results from the ‘Global Work
from Home Experience Survey’ corroborate thesefindings, as they show that 62% of respondents say
to be ‘overall, very successful working from home’with a nearly equal level of ‘activity performance’
when compared to working from the office 202.

24

❷The Way We Buy
The economic uncertainty and restricted movement
caused by the pandemic (not to mention theobvious health concerns), have had a significant
impact on consumer behaviour as well. In fact, morethan 60% of global consumers said to have changed
their shopping behaviour since the start of thepandemic 209. A lot of these changes can be
attributed to (e.g.) certain goods temporarily being
unavailable through the usual channels, or the
consumer becoming more cautious in theirspending, and are therefore most likely only
temporary in nature. Not to mention thephenomenon of ‘panic-buying’ like we saw in theearly stage of the pandemic 210, which drasticallyaffected buying behaviour and 211, as a result,disrupted the retail market to great extent 211.
However the changes that is expected to have amore significant (and lasting) effect, is the consumer
collectively switching to online channels 195.
Of course the growing use of ecommerce and shareof online channels in overall consumer sales is not a
new development. Online shopping, starting fromits most rudimentary form, has been around forabout 40 years, however it was not until the turn ofthe century when really took flight (in the form weknow today) with the introduction of several gamechanging online platforms and services 213. Even
though global e-commerce has been growing rapidly
ever since the early 2000’s214, the last couple ofyears the growth of retail ecommerce sales did
actually seem to cool down a bit. A 2019 prognosisby ‘eMarketer’ predicted the ecommerce retailsales would have come down to 19.2% in 2020,
compared to the 28% in 2017 214. However due tobusinesses forced to close down their physicalstores, and the consumers (more or less) locked
inside their homes, the use of online retail shopping
surged to a 27.8% during 2020. An analysis of
Google search interests in a selection of countries
worldwide, performed by the OECD, shows an
exponential increase in searches for “delivery” (orits equivalent in other languages) in the period fromFebruary to April 2020 215. An interesting finding of
the study, is that in some countries the increased
interest in delivery preceded any government
measures. This illustrates how quick consumers canreact and change their behaviour in case of
uncertainty and large, disrupting events.
The pandemic has been estimated to account for an
additional 10% growth of the overall global25

❷
ecommerce market in 2020, and is expected tohave a similar impact on 2021 growth as well 216.
Despite the overall growth, not all productcategories saw an increase in sales, regardlesswhether or not they were available throughonline channels. Sales related to leisure andtravel were (for obvious reasons) down for bothon- and offline channels, but the same
happened for sport related articles, (formal/
exclusive) clothing and apparel 209, 215. The
product categories which seem to havebenefited the most from the shift to online
channels (more or less equally across theworld), are: groceries; food products; andmedicines. Coincidentally the same sectors, forwhich the adoption of online channels has been
relatively low 217. Also, it is expected that it willbe the SMEs in particular, which will continue tomove to online sales channels 218.
As mentioned earlier, not all of these changes
are necessarily permanent as they result froman ad hoc reaction to temporary uncertainties
and limitations. That isn’t to say however, thatthese changes will not have some sort of lasting
effect on buying behaviour on the long run. For
example, the 2002 SARS outbreak is often
suggested to have been the main driver behindthe digitalisation of Chinese retail 219. Of course
the COVID-19 pandemic (due to sheer scalealone) is quite different from the 2002 SARS
outbreak, however the consumer and industry
reactions to restricted movement do compare,so perhaps the long term effects will as well. Of
course, as long as the uncertainties persist, so
will (most likely) the current buying behaviour.
However, even once the global situation
stabilises, not everything will (or can) turn backto the pre-pandemic situation, because boththe consumer, as well as the market itself, havepermanently changed. From the perspective of
the consumer, it is easy to understand why thetransition to online channels was made during
the height of the pandemic. However once26

❷
adjusted, it is not unthinkable that many consumers
will rely on online shopping for a much larger
portion of their purchases than they did before thepandemic. After all, having lived with the pandemic
for well over a year now (as of time of writing),
consumers worldwide have gotten used to online
shopping for an enormous range of purchases, forwhich they have found new shops and businesses 209,
215
. These new found habits, as well as loyalty, won’t
just disappear when the virus does (whenever that
may be). Second, not only did the pandemic warm
people to the idea of using online channels forpurchases they previously made in brick-and-mortar
stores, it has also pushed a large portion of the‘laggards’ into adopting online shopping all
together 209, 215. These ‘newcomers’ to ecommerce
did, in some cases, make up for more than half of2020’s growth in online sales. According to a
McKinsey survey, the majority of global consumers
actually believes that more of their purchases will
be made online than before the crisis, for nearly all
product groups in the categories; groceries, apparel,household items, entertainment, and wellness
products 220. Interestingly, the survey (conducted

twice during 2020) shows that respondents incountries that were less certain of increasing their
online purchases after the pandemic in the firstsurvey (e.g., Japan and Germany), showed morepositive towards this idea in the second survey held
later in the year 220. This could suggest that, thelonger the pandemic lasts, the more consumers will
warm to the idea of relying on digital channels formore and more of their purchases.
Of course, the market itself has undergone quite
some changes as well, not all of which, are likely (oreven possible) to be reversed. For starters, in theirshift to online channels, businesses were forced tomake significant investments to either expand their
existing online presence, or in some cases, build
them up from scratch 221. It would therefore make a
lot of sense for businesses to want to capitalise on
these investments, even after the pandemic has
subsided. Furthermore, in their transition,organisations might have overcome hurdles (e.g.
technological,
organisational,orcustomer
expectations) that might have prevented them fromdeveloping their online presence before thepandemic. Something that is corroborated by the27❷McKinsey survey mentioned earlier 195. Finally, thereis the harsh reality that business that couldn’t (orfailed to) adapt quickly enough, simply disappear
from the market, leaving their share to those who
could and did.
The 2020 WEF survey mentioned earlier, shows that
77% of respondents, across regions and industries,
expect to adopt ecommerce and digital trading
technologies by the year 2025 196, which is a 2-18%
increase over the results from the 2018 survey 222.
The survey also shows that European countries andJapan are quite a bit ahead of the global
expectation, as the 2020 adoption rate in thesecountries ranged between 71% and 94% already 196.
As far as the overall adoption rate in the industry,
this was the highest in the financial services sector(90%), followed by manufacturing, ‘transportationand storage’, ‘digital communications & IT’, and theconsumer goods sector (82-87%)196.
The shift to online channels, at the expense of brickand-mortar outlets is a development that started
well before the pandemic 223. The reason that Ecommerce is given such a prominent coverage in a
research on technological advancements, is that it
has played a very significant role in both the
adoption and development of several very
important technological domains. In fact, as will be
explained in the next chapters, the sudden growthof E-commerce was made possible by, as well as
contributing to, emerging technologies like Big Data,
AI & Machine Learning, Internet-of-Things, andCyber Security.

28❸

Frontier Technologies, or Fleeting Fads?
Returning to the matter of the fourth industrial revolution, the question remains, of what technologies will bemaking up this ‘industry 4.0’. Often referred to as ‘emerging’ or ‘frontier’ technologies, there are a number of(relatively) new technological developments that have had an increasingly large industrial and societal impact
in recent years. We have selected seven of these technologies to be highlighted, based on their (anticipated)significance and impact, or those of which the adoption process was accelerated by the pandemic the most. As
it happens to be, more often than not, these technologies are in fact interrelated in the sense of both thetechnological as well as their applications. This chapter will look at the current state of these technologies, andhow the pandemic has impacted their use and adoption.

29

❸
Cloud Computing
Cloud computing, the delivery of digital services(like software or storage) over the internet, isperhaps the best example of a technology of which
the adoption was drastically accelerated due to thepandemic 224. According to Microsoft for example,
based on the use of their cloud based services, theyclaim the pandemic caused two years of digitaltransformation in only two months 225. A survey by
Flexera shows that 90% of their global respondents
expected to be making more use of cloud services
due to the pandemic 226. The fact that this isn’t ashort lived development, is shown by the fact that
24% of their respondents said their 2021
expenditure on cloud to be over budget, and 39%
expected to exceed their initial budget for 2022 226.
Similarly, a survey by Gartner showed that 70% of
the respondents that already used cloud computing,will increase spending in this area due to thepandemic227. Gartner expects the 2021 global enduser expenditure on cloud computing services toincrease with 18% over 2020, to nearly US$305
billion. They also forecast this industry to maintainits growth until 2024, by when they expect cloudcomputing to make up for 14.2% of global
enterprise IT spending (up from 9.1% in 2020) 227.
As with all the technologies mentioned, thetransition to, and adoption of, cloud computing
dates back from well before the COVID-19 outbreak.
Providing access to solutions or capabilities
otherwise out of reach, cloud based services offer
their users more benefits than merely saving themfrom having to make substantial investments 228.
While cost savings are always welcome, and evenmore so during times of economic uncertainty,
there are several reasons for the rapid adoption ofcloud based solutions during the pandemic.

For starters, the shift to working from home meantthat employees needed remote access to everything
they require to conduct their daily work activities.
Cloud based solutions made this transition possible.
Second, the flexibility (and scalability) of cloudservices makes them very appropriate in times of

uncertainty, where rapid adaptability is of great
importance. Having important parts of business
operations outsourced as a service, gives theflexibility to adapt on short notice to your current(or anticipated) needs. In case of the pandemic,
these were solutions that facilitated remote work or
the increased use of online channels, but also30❸advanced AI driven technologies to aid in digitisingbusiness operations to name some examples.
Like mentioned, the adaption of cloud computing islikely to continue for the coming years. Flexera’s
survey shows that nearly 60% of the respondents(representing nine industries) says to focus on‘cloud migration’ and plans to migrate more
workload to the cloud in the coming years 226. A
significant percentage of respondents (39-44%
depending on current ‘adoption maturity’) plans to
adopt a ‘cloud-first’ strategy. Another important
finding from this survey, is the fact that cloud based
services seem to have really particularly enabled
SMEs in adapting to the current situation. For
example, respondents currently are, in average,
running 50% of their workload in public clouds and
46% of their data. While SMEs have 64% of theirworkload, and 59% of their data in public clouds,
and are expecting to increase this with 5% and 8%
respectively in the next 12 months 226. This
presumably, due to the benefits of flexibility andcost saving that cloud services offer, which, inchallenging times, are particularly valuable tosmaller businesses. Of course there are somechallenges in the adoption of cloud services as well.
Currently, the main concern seems to be security,
as it is mentioned by 81% of Flexera’s respondents,
with minimal difference between large businesses
and SMEs 226. However more on this further on inthis chapter.

31

❸The Internet-of-Things
Perhaps the hallmark technology of ‘Industry 4.0’,
the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is the expansive field ofconnecting hardware (i.e., ‘things’), equipped withsensor and software technologies, to connect andshare data via the internet 229. While the term willprobably have most people think of smart fridges or
smart microwaves (or any home applianceincorporating the word ‘smart’), the number of IoT
applications is truly endless. The name was coined
around the turn of the century to introduce the ideaof using RFID technology to track products
throughout the supply chain 230. From there on, theterm was used for the growing trend of connecting
devices over the internet. Currently, IoT applications
can be found anywhere, including home appliances,
health care, agriculture and manufacturing 229, 231.
The technology has even found military applications
and is used in infrastructure projects (like ‘smart
cities’)231, 232.
The Internet-of-Things can, for the sake ofsimplicity, be divided in three main domains, being:
the one for consumers, the one for enterprises, andthe one for public spaces 233. During the pandemic, it
was enterprise IoT that has played a significant rolein particular. In Vodafone’s IoT Spotlight Report
2020, for which they surveyed 1.639 businesses
worldwide, they show the benefits IoT offers
businesses, and what role it has played during the
pandemic. The main areas in which IoT offer
benefits in the enterprise domain are 1) byimproving operational efficiency, and 2) by creating
new connected products and services 234. Regarding
the improved operation efficiency, half of the
respondents said that IoT solutions have improved
employee productivity, and 42% said asset uptime
to be one of the main benefits of having adopted
IoT solutions. Also, 55% of respondents said IoT tohave enabled them to reduce operating costs (up to
21% on average). While in the area of products andservices, 34% of respondents reported newly
generated revenue streams thanks to IoT, and an
equal 34% said to have seen an increased revenue
from existing revenue streams by 24% on average.

Altogether, 82% of respondents said to have seen
increased revenue and market share since adopting
IoT. More than half of the respondents said thereturn on investments from IoT solutions are
significant, particularly in businesses that have beenusing the technology for three years or longer.
One of the most significant changes brought about

32❸
approach analytics and value data 224. For example,
81% of respondents use IoT data to drive
innovation, and 84% says to use it for meeting theirsustainability goals. Many also mentioned that IoT
data to have made customer service more effective
and flexible (39%), as it provided new insights incustomer wants and needs. Overall, businesses said
that IoT data allows them to better plan for the
future and more effectively respond to unexpectedchanges. It is therefore not surprising that nearly all
respondents admitted data has become much more
important with the use of IoT solutions.
These same benefits attributed to IoT solutions, arelikely the reason that 84% of the respondents fromthe Vodafone study said that IoT was a key factor inmaintaining business continuity during the 2020
pandemic. Scrambling to adapt to social distancing
and lockdowns, IoT solutions have enabledbusinesses to automate tasks, or made it possible
for them to be carried out remotely. It has also
been used to significantly reduce the workload of(vital) manual tasks, allowing for work to continue
under the challenging circumstances. Over threequarters of the businesses surveyed, said to haveaccelerated specific IoT project in response to thepandemic. However this was also due to a shift inprioritisation, as some projects were actually put on
hold (or cancelled) as priority was given to the moreurgent matters. So for some applications, thepandemic has actually slowed down theadvancements in IoT.

by the adoption of IoT, is the drastic increase ingenerated data. In fact, 86% of the respondents
interviewed for the 2020 IoT Spotlight Report said
that the adoption of IoT has changed how theyBesides enterprise projects being delayed due to a(temporary) change in priorities, the consumer IoT
market suffered from manufacturing and supply
chain disruptions 235. But, within the consumer
market, demand for IoT products was not affected
proportionally by the pandemic either, showing thegreat disparities in how the pandemic has affected
the overall IoT domain, depending on applicationand end market 233. However this ‘dip’ following the
pandemic, is likely to be short lived as predictions
indicate the market to recover as soon as the
economy stabilises 236. In fact, once the world33❸reaches the ‘post-pandemic’ stadium, the market is
expected to grow even faster than was predicted
before the pandemic due to pent-up demand andinvestments to ‘future proof’235. Projections alsosuggest that the industrial IoT market is to show anaverage annual growth of 16.7% till 2027, when themarket will reach $263.4 billion 237.
These same benefits attributed to IoT solutions, arelikely the reason that 84% of the respondents fromthe Vodafone study said that IoT was a key factor inmaintaining business continuity during the 2020
pandemic. Scrambling to adapt to social distancing
and lockdowns, IoT solutions have enabledbusinesses to automate tasks, or made it possible
for them to be carried out remotely. It has also
been used to significantly reduce the workload of(vital) manual tasks, allowing for work to continue
under the challenging circumstances. Over threequarters of the businesses surveyed, said to haveaccelerated specific IoT project in response to thepandemic. However this was also due to a shift inprioritisation, as some projects were actually put on
hold (or cancelled) as priority was given to the moreurgent matters. So for some applications, thepandemic has actually slowed down theadvancements in IoT.
In addition, the consumer IoT market suffered fromsignificant manufacturing and supply chain
disruptions 235. However within the consumer
market, demand for IoT products was not affected
proportionally by the pandemic either, showing thegreat disparities in how the pandemic has affected
the overall IoT domain, depending on applicationand end market 233. However this ‘dip’ following the
pandemic, is likely to be short lived as predictions
indicate the market to recover as soon as the
economy stabilises 236. In fact, once the world
reaches the ‘post-pandemic’ stadium, the market is
expected to grow even faster than was predicted
before the pandemic due to pent-up demand andinvestments to ‘future proof’235. Projections alsosuggest that the industrial IoT market is to show anaverage annual growth of 16.7% till 2027, when themarket will reach $263.4 billion 237.

34

❸
Big Data
As mentioned earlier as well, we are generating
increasing amounts of increasingly complex data,from an increasing number of sources. This trend, is
why we are in what is often referred to as ‘the data
age’. Data which, in terms of size or type, is beyond
what is possible to capture, manage, and processwith traditional relational databases, is commonly
called ‘big data’238. More simply put, what
differentiates ‘big data’ from ‘traditional data’ is asuperabundant volume, velocity, and/or variety.
Both the before mentioned cloud computing and IoT
have (amongst others) contributed to the growth of
big data. The growth of the IoT industry has meant
an enormous increase in generated data, whilecloud solutions have enabled the storage andprocessing of these vast amounts of data 239.
Just like the data itself, the number of applications
are enormous and ever increasing. However overall,big data allows for more complete (detailed)insights, meaning a higher level of reliability, andultimately better and faster decision making 238, 240.
To illustrate, 80% of the respondents from theearlier mentioned Vodafone Future Ready Report
said that the amount of data collected bybusinesses is increasing, and nearly as many agreed
that data is becoming an increasingly important
strategic asset 199. About three quarters of
respondents also agree that data has become
essential in day-to-day business operations, and is infact ‘key’ in making the best commercial decisions.
In a similar way, big data found an additional use
during the pandemic. Hidden in massive amounts ofavailable data, were vital insights that allowed
scientists, epidemiologists, and policy makers tomake well informed decisions in their efforts ofconstraining the virus outbreak 241. Continuous data
streams from all over the world made it possible tomonitor developments on both a global and local
level in near real-time, available to everyone. This,as well as other uses of ‘big data’ during the
pandemic, were a great showcase of its potential
when used synergistically with technologies likeartificial intelligence and machine learning forexample (more on which later) 241, 242.
Most recent developments aside, ‘big data’ has,
without a doubt, been one of the major tech
buzzwords of the last decade 243. However up until
now, not everyone felt it has lived up to the hype(or rather, it’s true potential) 244. The 2021 NVP Big
Data and AI Executive survey, conducted among35

❸
respondents representing eighty-five Fortune 1000
firms, provides some interesting insights in thisregard. For example, it shows that while practicallyall firms are investing in big data and AI solutions,and nearly all (91.9%) say investments to be
increasing245.
However
despiteoftheseinvestments, less than half of the businesses
involved says to drive their innovation through data,or are competing on analytics. In fact, less than 40%
are managing data as a ‘business asset’. Even moretelling, is the fact that less than a quarter of thefirms say to have “forged a data culture” or“created a data-drive organisation”. Interestingly,
the NVP study shows that in only 8% of cases, therespondents say technological boundaries are themain obstacle in the transition to a ‘data-driven’organisation. The other 92% say the main obstacles
are (organisational) culture, people, or businessprocess related. This finding is, very much, in linewith findings from the previously mentioned
McKinsey 195 and WEF196 studies, which showed it
was rarely technological limitations or boundaries
hampering the adoption of new technologies. Yet
more important, these studies also suggest the‘cultural’ or ‘organisational’ boundaries to be(largely) taken away by the pandemic 195, 196.

This could indicate an accelerated adoption of big
data (and data-driven organisations) in the years tocome. In fact, the 2021 NVP study, shows thepercentage of firms reporting accelerated
investments in big data and AI solutions to be up by
40% from their 2020 survey, possibly indicating a
new impetus in big data adoption 245. Market
analyses by the Business Research Company,
speculate about a possible 5.3% growth for the2021 global market big data and analytics 246, and3.9% for big data and analytics services 247.

36

❸
Cyber Security
The technologic fields discussed up till this point,
have all seen a significant increase in use andadoption during the pandemic. Each one, offeredspecific solutions (often synergistically with eachother) to the challenges that came with therestrictions of movement and other precautionary
measures. However, while the shift to digital was awelcome solution to the situation at the time, it did

have a particular unwanted side effect (apart fromthe substantial investments and steep learning
curve). In March of 2020, the WEF warned about
the vulnerabilities that came with the increasing
dependency on digital infrastructures 248. They
argued, that the increased use of digital channels
itself, as well as the larger number of people using
them, businesses and governments would become
more vulnerable to cyber criminals. A worry that,was in fact proven very much justified, over themonths that followed. It was only April, when theWHOreported

attacks249

afivefoldincrease

in

cyber

. Both Interpol and Microsoft would issue

warnings on the issue later that same month 250, 251.
Of course, cyber security was a growing concern
before the pandemic as well, as it is simply aconcomitant of digitalisation 252. However, just as
the pandemic accelerated the adoption of newtechnologies, it accelerated their exploitation byopportunistic criminals as well. In addition to this,
there is was the forced transition to working from
home, which created a whole new multitude of
security challenges 253.
The main growth drivers for the cyber security
market were, and are, the adoption of e-commerce,
cloud computing, IoT, and AI 254, 255. In 2020, theaverage cyber security budget in businesses was

2021258, and with estimated compound annual

equal to 0.48% of total revenue, and 10.9% of the IT

growth rates between 11.2% 255 and 14.5%259 untilbudget256. Estimations of the global market for

2026254, 255, 257, 259. The fastest growing segments incyber security in 2020 range between US$153.2

these estimations are BFSI, healthcare, government,

billion241

and US$162.5 billion

257

in size, with anestimated growth of 7.6% over 2019 254. However,predictions for the coming years are even more
promising, with an expected growth of 10% forand manufacturing 254.
For ‘The Insight 2021 Report’, Insight conducted asurvey among 200 C-level IT and IT security
executives from large firms across a variety of37

❸
industries. The survey findings show that all of the
respondents said their executive team to havebecome more focussed on their security posture,and nearly all respondents said to have increased
their cyber security spending in 2020 (96%), and are
expecting to do so again in 2021 (91%) 260. Despite ofthis, 78% of the surveyed executives said to still
have low confidence in their organisation’s security
posture,indicatingthat

despitecurrent

developments, adoption is still lagging. This isunderlined by the fact that 67% of respondents said
to be seeking assistance in developing an IT security
strategy.

38❸Artificial Intelligence
As mentioned in the beginning of this chapter, thetechnological fields covered here are, in many ways,
interrelated. Artificial Intelligence (AI), and its
subfields like Machine Learning (ML), are great
examples of synergistic relations between frontier
technologies. As concepts alone, both ‘Artificial
Intelligence’ and ‘Machine Learning’ have been twoof the most popular tech buzzwords of recent years.
This is with good reason however, as theirapplications are actually greatly facilitating both thedevelopment and adoption of other emerging
technologies (like the ones covered in this chapter).
Do note that this facilitation, does go both ways,
hence the emphasis on ‘interrelation’. AI and Big
Data for example, are a great example of asynergistic relationship as AI solutions make itpossible to handle and process the massive amountsof data, while it is the access to ‘big data’ thatallows AI to evolve and improve 261, 262. Similar
examples could be made with IoT, Cloud Computing,
Cyber Security, or Robotics as well.
As such, AI applications have found many uses since
the start of the pandemic. Examples of such uses,
are how AI (ML in particular) allowed for fast
processing of large amounts of complex data, whichgave incredibly valuable insights in (e.g.) disease
detection or drug discovery, but also in thedetection and prediction of outbreaks 263, 264. In theprivate sector as a whole however, AI also provided
countless valuable solutions, for all businessactivities, in adapting to the pandemic.
For example, it greatly facilitated the transition toremote work by taking over some of the more
simple and repetitive tasks, reducing theworkload 184. In addition, AI solutions were used tonegate some of the HR and managerial challenges
that came with the transition process 265, 266.
Moreover, it where AI implementations thatenabled many businesses to make the sudden shift
to E-commerce267. Some good examples, being theapplications found in customer service, supply chain
management, marketing & sales, and cybersecurity 268.

So it should come as no surprise that the AI market
is doing well. In fact, the global AI market (including
software, hardware, and services) is expected to
grow with 16.4% in 2021, to US$327.5 billion 269.
Software currently makes up the largest part (88%)
of the market. That said however, the market for AI
services is expected to grow with 24.7% in 2021 andis expected to reach US$554.3 billion by 2024, at a

39

❸
CAGR of 17.5%. While other estimates differ quite abit due to a different definition of the total market,
they all foresee a significant growth in the coming
years270, 271.
Some specific markets where AI
implementations are expected to grow at asignificantly high CAGR, are healthcare (45.3% till2025)272, retail (29.6% till 2027) 273, wearables(26.9% till 2027) 274, and agriculture (30.5% till 2030)
275.
The McKinsey ‘state of AI 2020’ survey, showed thatcurrently about half of their global respondents has
implemented AI solutions in at least one of theirbusiness functions 276. Of the ones that have, 22%says that at least 5% of their EBIT can be attributed
to the AI implementations, suggesting a significant
ROI. In average, about 28% of their respondents
said to have increased investments in AI solutions inreaction to the pandemic, however this percentage
was highest in the healthcare/pharma industries(44%) and the automotive/assembly industries(42%).

40

❸
Robotics
In this list of emerging technologies, ‘robotics’ issomewhat of an odd one out, since the concept(depending on the exact definition used) dates backcenturies 264. The robotic technology as we know ittoday, dates back to the early 1950’s and has madegreat strides since. This advancement, as well as theincredible potential of synergetic applications withother emerging technologies like AI 265 and Cloudcomputing 266, make that robotics could not be
omitted from this chapter.
Before the pandemic the overall robotics industry
was doing well. However due to uncertainties in theautomotive and electronics industries, as well as theongoing trade war between China and the US, salesof industrial robotics saw a slight (12%) decrease in
2019280. Because the automotive industry and electronics industry are the main sales verticals for industrial robotics (28% and 24% respectively). The
market for service robots on the other hand, hasbeen performing quite a bit better. That said, this
sector is broader than the industrial robot industry,
as it includes a much wider variety in levels of automation. In 2019, the market for service robots grew
32%, and so far, seems not to be affected negatively
by the pandemic 281. If anything, some submarkets
have even shown growth, like solutions for disinfection, factories, warehousing, and home delivery. The
sale of professional service robots in 2020 is estimated to have increased by 38%, and those for domestic and household tasks by 16% 281. Both markets, are expected to grow at a CAGR of 31% until
2023. The overall robotics market in 2020 is valued
at US$23.7 billion, and is expected to reach US$74
billion in 2027 at a 20.4% CAGR 282. The main growth
driving industries in 2021 will remain to be the automotive, electronics, and F&B 283.
So while the future of robotic technologies alreadylooked quite promising, the pandemic does appear
to have had a positive effect on the overall industry.
Besides the practical examples of how robotic technologies offered much needed solutions to the challenges following the pandemic, it might in fact (oncemore) be the overall acceptance of the technologythat will have the largest impact on the long run.
Just like with other technologies covered in thischapter, the pandemic has taken away resistance(or reluctance) to adopting robotic technologies,
which has led to a broad range of adoption, including among smaller companies 284. This does indicate
an even stronger move towards automation thanalready was the case, a development substantiatedby the increased level of investments observed indeveloped economies like Japan and the EU 285.

41

❸
3D Printing
3D printing, also known as additive manufacturing(AM), is perhaps one of the most widely discussed
among emerging technologies. This, is for a largepart due to its rapidly increasing number ofapplications across various industries 286. Whether it
is new techniques 287, 288, new materials 289, 290, or
new applications with existing materials 291, 292, 3D
printing and its creative applications receive
frequent media attention. The process of AM,
typically offers industrial users the benefit ofproducing highly complex parts in low volume, whilesaving material (and thus, weight) 293. As such, thehighest level of adoption can be found in theautomotive, aviation, and space industries, with anincreasing use in the medical world 286, 293.
The market for additive manufacturing in 2020 was
valued at US$ 13.7 billion, compared to US$ 10.4
billion in 2019 294, 295. The global 3D printing market
is expected to reach US$ 63.5 billion by 2026, at a
CAGR of 29.48% 294. Others foresee the volume ofindustrial 3D printers sold by the year 2028 to reach
15.3 million units, compared to the 2.1 million units
shipped in 2020 296. Roughly two thirds of thecurrent market made up by polymer AM, with metal
AM being less than half of that 297. That said
however, the metal AM is expected to grow at a
29.2% CAGR until 2025, compared to a 15.4% ofpolymer AM. Hardware sales were responsible forthe majority of the 2020 market revenue (63%),
followed by software (29%) and services (8%) 296.
Overall, the 3D printing market is expected toperform well the coming years and so far, does notseem to have experienced much slowdown from thepandemic. While there was a notable fall in
hardware shipments in the first quarter of 2020,
most likely due to the struggling aviation industry,
this seem to have only been temporary 298. In fact,many of the industry’s large players did reportsignificant growth in 2020. Furthermore, a survey by
Essentium among manufacturing companies thatare using AM solutions, showed that 90% of
respondents believe the pandemic has affected
their organisation’s adoption of 3D printing, andmore than half said it has led to a significant
increase in use of 3D printed production parts 299.
Half of the respondents also said to have increased
investments in AM in response to the pandemic.
The main drivers in the industry continue to be
automotive, aerospace, defence, and medical
industries 296. As mentioned, the adoption of 3D
printing in the healthcare industry is relatively

42❸
recent, however this market is forecasted to growat a CAGR of 19.1%, reaching US$4.3 billion by2025300.
One important addition to the potential of 3D
printing technologies in the post-pandemic
economy, is how it could facilitate localised
production and manufacturing. Besides thesustainability benefits this would offer, it could
drastically improve supply chain resilience as well.
The before mentioned Essentium survey showedthat 83% of respondents believes that AM will
increasingly drive more localised manufacturing 299.
While traditionally the main use of the 3D printing
has been R&D and prototyping, a survey by Sculpteo
shows that, unlike the year before, the technology
is now generally accepted as a real production
tool301. This, most likely due to the solutions 3D
printing has offered in adjusting to the pandemic.
According to the survey, 52% of AM adopters used
the technology for end-use mechanical parts, and
27% for end-use consumer goods. While calls for‘reshoring’ and ‘supplier diversification’ are nothing
new, the pandemic, as well as certain geopoliticaldevelopments, have highlighted the fragility of(conventional) global supply and value chains.
Thanks to its increasing adoption rate and technicalmaturity, AM could aid the transition to more
resilient supply and value chains 302.

43

❹The Road Ahead
With these insights in recent developments, the future actually looks rather intriguing. Sure, it still requires acertain ‘glass-half-full’ kind of outlook, but despite the otherwise worrisome times, there certainly have beensome interesting and promising developments as well. The accelerated technological advancements surely wasa welcome side effect, as well as their increased level of adoption. However the technological advancements
alone, do not show us what to expect for the post-pandemic world in a broader economic and social context,
nor why it would be something to be optimistic about.
In this final chapter, we will look at the years ahead of us and the marks the pandemic has left on our future.
More specifically, the lasting impact on how we work and live, and what this means to our commitments tomore sustainable societies and economies.

44❹
The Years to Come: Technology Adoption
Roughly a year later, the enormous boost the
pandemic brought to the adoption of new and/or
digital technologies is clear. However what toexpect next? Surely, the long term effect of thismassive disruption will reach beyond a simple leap
forward in our use and implementation oftechnologies alone. As
mentioned earlier, theswitchto(digital)technologies
wasanecessary one, but it also
served as an eye opener toC-level decision makers of
the potential benefits andROI of said solutions189, 190,
193
. One effect this appears to have, is the intention
to increase future investments in technologicalsolutions as is shown by a McKinsey survey among
North American and European businesses. Thissurvey showed that 75% of respondents expect toinvest more in new technologies in the years up to2024303, opposed to the 55% of an earlier survey

from before 2019 304. This expectation correspondswith the expectation of technological adaption overthe coming years, concluded from the WEF survey
mentioned before. The WEF survey shows that the2020 expectation for the level of adoption by theyear 2025 are significantly higher than compared totheexpectations
from1902018 . For example, thenumber of respondents
expecting to adopt cybersecurity solutions by 2025
grew with 29% from 2018
to 2020. Less drastic, but
stillsignificant,the
McKinsey290
expected adoption of cloudcomputing increased 17%, and robotics and 3D
printing both 10% 190. In fact, all of the emerging
technologies covered in the previous chapter are
predicted to see a larger level of adoption by 2025
than was previously the expected. Of course theadoption level will vary from industry to industry.
According to the WEF survey, the sectors for ‘Digital75%

of executives foresee higher

investments in technologies inthe years up to 2024

Sources: WEF & McKinsey

45❹Communication and Information Technology’ and‘Financial Services’ in particular, will see highadoption levels of technologies like AI, big data,cloud computing, cyber security and IoT 190. Sometechnologies are projected to find a wide level ofadoption across all major industries. Big data
analytics for example, ranges from 76% at its
lowest, to 95% at
its highest acrossindustries 190.
Similarly,
cloud
computing ranges
from 75% to 98%
and AI from 62% to95%.

the digital transition over the coming years. At thevery least, it will have a significant impact on our
economies.
This means that the accelerated adoption andincreased investments observed during the
pandemic will likely continue over the next few
years. Considering the impact this development has
already had on
efficiency, it would
make sense to
expect a change in
output. In fact, a
study,
McKinsey290 McKinsey
coveringeight
industries, shows a possible 1% growth in annual
labour productivity every year till 2024 304. This
would be, hypothetically, double that of what wasachieved after the 2008 financial crisis 305. Of course
it does require a stable demand, but as will becovered later on in this chapter, this will most likely
not be an issue. This potential is in fact, largely
attributed to the efficiency gains resulting from

Industries could experience a potential 0.71.5% additional annual productivity growtha year until 2024

E-commerce, previously covered in a separate
subchapter, is also expected to see a high degree of
adoption across industries. The number of
respondents from the selected industries planningto make more use of E-commerce in the years up to2024 ranges between 75% and 90%, suggesting this
could be the most far-reaching development within

Sources: WEF & McKinsey

46

❹rethinking product/business/and operating models
in response to the pandemic. As shown earlier, it
was the adoption of technological solutions thatmade these efficiency gains possible. Of course thepotential productivity gains do vary between
industries, however each of the included industries
showed a potential for growth. The strongest
growth is expected in the sector of healthcare,
ranging from 1.6-3.0% a year. One of the main
drivers mentioned for this potential is the adoptionof telemedicine, as well as overall operational
efficiency gains. The ICT sector is also expected tosee productivity gains, ranging from 1.2-2.3% a year.

For this sector the main drivers named are all
related to the switch to online services andchannels. The consumer market (incl. retail) is
predicted see increased productivity driven by ecommerce, automation and advanced analytics.
Potentially resulting in 1.0-2.4% of additional
productivity growth a year. Looking at the driving
factors, it seems likely that the technology adoption
and investments made during the pandemic, will
have a significant and positive long term impact.

47

❹
The Years to Come: Work, Life, and Work-life
Of course, the accelerated technological adoption
was both the response, as well as the means to thedrastic changes in the workplace. The mostdisrupting of measures, working remotely, is also
the one raising the most questions regarding
the future of the workplace. In many cases,
management is eager to bringpeople back to the office,resulting in mixed reactions
from their employees306, 307, 308.
While some of this resistance isstill COVID related, a large part of people have infact come to prefer working from home overworking in the office 307. Considering how effective
remote work has proven itself to be and thesubstantial investments already made to facilitate it(not to mention investments and adjustments byemployees themselves), it is very likely WFH tobecome one of the lasting changes to our (work)
lives. In fact, ’home nesting’, the idea of investing in
one’s living space to accommodate activities
otherwise done outside (like work or exercise)became really popular during the pandemic. Now
having gotten accustomed to being able doing
everything from the comfort of one’s home could
have made some people to reconsider how andwhere they want to spend their time from now on.

According to a recent KPMG survey among global
executives, one quarter says that their business has“changed forever”309. This, somewhat, corresponds
to the 30% saying they will have the majority of
employees working partially from home in
the future.

24%

Of course, not every type ofof CEOs says their business work allows for remote work,and so the level of WFH
has changed forever

implemented over the coming
years will differ wildly between
industries and economies. Subsequently, theexpected effects of this development will vary justas well. Just to give an example of the differences
between various economies, the McKinsey study
referred to earlier noted that in the advanced
economies, the potential share of workers thatwould be able to telework for 3-5 days a week isbetween 20% and 25% 197. In the less developed
economies however, in this case China and India,
that potential was only 11% and 5% respectively 197.
Estimates on this subject by the WEF suggest thatthe percentage of jobs that can be performed
remotely in high-income economies is 38%, 25% inupper-middle income economies, 17% in lowermiddle economies, and 13% in low-income
KPMG296

Source: McKinsey

48

❹economies 190. However when accounting for
disparities in internet access, the divergence grows
significantly. In this case the number of jobs would
be 33.6% in high income economies, 17.8% in upper-middle income economies, 10% lower-middle
income economies, and 5% in low income
economies. This means, that in well developed,
high income economies like Europe and Japan, morethan a third of workers would be able to performtheir activities remotely 190. Another McKinsey
report shows that in Japan and large European
economies (i.e.: the UK, Germany, France andSpain), the share in time that workers could
potentially do remotely without any loss in
productivity varies between 26-33%310. The
theoretical maximum in these countries is estimatedto lie between 36-46%. Subsequently, the sectorsthat have the highest potential for remote work are

Finance & Insurance (76% of effective potential),
Management(68%),
Professional/Scientific/
Technical Services (62), and IT (58%) 310.
All considered, a more general adaption of (at least
some hybrid form of) remote work seems very likely,
especially in the more advanced economies like Japanand the EU. However, this change will likely coincidewith a shift in the job market as well. For one, thegrowing adoption of (and reliance on) advanced
technological solutions is bound to cause an increasing
demand for specialists. The WEF survey mentioned
before, also asked executives about the jobs that they
identified as being in ‘high demand’. Looking at theresults for the same European countries plus Japan as
before, we see that the top five for each of them solely
mention jobs related to emerging technologies likedata analysis and AI190. ‘Data Analysts’ and ‘Data

Sources: WEF & McKinsey

49

❹
Scientists’ in particular, are in very high demand, as are
AI and ‘Machine Learning Specialists’. However the factthat for three of these countries a ‘Digital
Transformation Specialist’ is mentioned in the top five,is very clear indicator that the digitalisation process isstill very much in progress.
Predictions in the ’Future of Jobs’ report by the WEF
corroborate this development as well, by predicting ashift in the labour force over the years up to 2030.
Looking at the same four European countries plus
Japan, each of these economies shows a clear increasein demand for STEM professionals as a share of thetotal workforce311. This difference (around 1%) ismostly attributed to the digitalisation and automationthat took place during the pandemic. Anotherinteresting development is the increasing demand forworkers in the Transport Services sector, which, as issuggested, is mostly linked to the growing E-commercemarket. When comparing the post-pandemic
predictions to the pre-pandemic predictions, there
definitely is a (positive) change in the demand for
STEM professionals. However, the biggest overall
difference is the one in the Transport Service sector,
where the pre-pandemic demand was in fact expected
to fall with 2-12% rather than increase311. Again, thisdevelopment is most likely to be the result of the rapid
growth of E-commerce during the pandemic. A trendthat apparently, is expected to carry on over the
coming years.

50❹The Years to Come: E-commerce and Consumer Behaviour
The previous chapter emphasised, once more, thepivotal role of E-commerce in the digitalisation
process. It is important to note however, that forthe purpose of this report, coverage on thedevelopments around ‘E-commerce’ constitutes thegeneral shift of services to online channels. This,because the collective shift to online channels is
expected to have broad, and lasting affect on
consumer behaviour.
A global McKinsey survey mentioned earlier showedthat more than half of their (consumer)
respondents expected to continue shopping online
after the pandemic 212. A more recent survey
however, conducted among consumers from(amongst others) Europe and Japan, gives a moredetailed insight in what online services/activities arelikely to remain in the coming years. The delivery ofgroceries for example, is one of the services that
became much more popular during the pandemic,
and is expected to be continued to be used after the
pandemic by more than 55% of respondents 311. The
expectations for restaurant deliveries after the
pandemic are slightly lower (although still over50%), which is to be expected as the physicalexperience of eating in a restaurant cannot becompared to eating at home. A particularlyinteresting find from the survey, is that not only
over 40% of respondents tried using a newrestaurant or store app during the pandemic, butmore than 60% of respondents expect to keep using
suchapplication
post-pandemic.
Similarly
interesting, is the fact that more than 60% of
respondents expects to keep using social media for
their purchases. These are very clear signs that,both buyers and seller, are ready and willing to fully
adopt digital channels for their Business. As such,it’s a good indication for what to expect the coming
years.
Other interesting insights are those related to theearlier mentioned trend of ‘home nesting’, as it
seems that global consumer have come accustomed
to using certain services from the comfort of theirown home. For example, telemedicine grew withmore than 110% during the pandemic and,Sources: WEF & McKinsey

51

❹
according to the survey, almost half of respondents
seems to expect (at least in part) doing so after the
pandemic subsides 311. Similarly, remote learning
services saw a drastic spike in users during the
pandemic, in particular for children (>110%).

However, many respondents are apparently open to
the idea of these services remaining to be offered
online (>50% for children and >55% for adults).
Online fitness is another service that saw its use
grow with >50% during the pandemic, but now
more than 60% of respondents say they expect tokeep using online fitness services in the future. Of
course, the willingness to, or expectation of using
these online services after the pandemic (and all
related worries) is over, doesn't necessarily mean it
being at the expense of these services being
provided in person. Although at the very least, it
indicates that perhaps more of the services thatwere traditionally offered in person and atdedicated locations, can just as well (if not better)be provided through online channels.
While these findings are definitely interesting,actual consumer behaviour in the coming years will,of course, largely depend on the economical
situation. The pandemic was an unusually harshdisruption of economic activities, causing many
hurdles and uncertainties. However with vaccination
programs in full progress all over the world, we cancarefully look ahead to an economic recovery, andperhaps even a modest growth.

In fact, the OECD, recently made drastic upwardrevisions to its projections for this year’s global
economic growth. Earlier projections, made late2020, showed a 4.2% growth for 2021 313. While still
being lower than what was projected before thepandemic started, current expectations for 5.8%
growth are still significantly more positive. This
revision is largely attributed to the vaccine rollouts
and fiscal stimulus packages in most of theadvanced economies. As such, similar revisions
were made for most of the European economies, aswell as Japan. Just as an example, the projections
for Germany were changed from 1.6% to 3.2%, andfor Japan they went from 0.2% to 1.6% 313. The
Sources: speed as to which developed economies recover toOECD & TRADING ECONOMICS a pre-pandemic level however, do vary a bit fromcountry to country. Germany’s GDP per capita forexample is expected to return to the level it was at52❹the end of 2019 by the first quarter of 2022, while
Spain is expected to do so by the third quarter of2023. Japan’s recovery is expected to be particularly
quick, as it is estimated to reach a pre-pandemic
level by the end of 2021.
Of course, these economic expectations are one
thing, but what is important is that they (according
to ‘Trading Economic’) are largely in line with the
expectations for consumers. More specifically,
consumer spending and confidence. Comparing the
projections for the second quarter of 2022 to thefirst of 2021, we see a clear improvement for
European countries as well as Japan. For the EU as awhole, consumer spending in this period would
increase with 3% 314. Projections do of course vary
somewhat between the individual countries. Spainand the UK are expected to see 9% and 8% forexample, while for Germany and France if would be
5%314. Consumer spending in Japan in this period is

expected to grow 4%. As for consumer confidence,the projections vary even more. Looking again at
the same period, the overall consumer confidence
in the EU stays more or less the same 315. In
Germany and the UK however, consumer
confidence is expected to increase with six andeleven points respectively, while in Italy on theother hand, it is expected to drop with five
points 315. The consumer confidence in Japan could
make a strong recovery as well, as it is expected togain eight points by the second quarter of 2022.
So as it looks for now, we can expect some
economic recovery over the coming months, andwith that, a recovery of consumer activity. This later
however, as was pointed out earlier, could lookquite a bit different than it did before the pandemic.
But a change in consumer behaviour does notnecessarily have to be a bad thing, in fact, it could
even turn out to have some benefits.

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The Epilogue
If anything, the main take-away from the previous chapters is how incredibly far reaching the pandemic’s effects has
been, going way beyond the (already quite severe) health crisis. The impact is, so we have seen, noticeable inpractically every aspect of our economy, in some cases leading to drastic, and possibly lasting changes. Having looked
into the past, present, and future, we now arrive at the part where gather the findings and decide what this means
moving forward. Businesses, be they large or small, can take the suggestion in this chapter as inspiration for their
future endeavors.

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Key Findings & Conclusions
Looking back at the many ways the pandemic has
affected our lives, economies and industries, it feels
more reasonable to state this period will enter thehistory books as one of modern history’s main
pivotal moments. After all, in the addition to its
momentous impact so far, the pandemic will leave
the world (whenever this may be) in a far different
state than when it entered it. The lasting changes,
or changes that are likely to be lasting, can be foundin various aspects of our societies. For the purposeof this report, we of course focus on the economic/
business side of the matter, including how toaccount for these insights in strategic planning.

Coming to the point directly, the overarching theme
among findings covered in this report is theaccelerated transition from physical to digital. While
this development has, of course, been in progresssince long before the pandemic came around, thepandemic turned it into a means of survival. In
other words, the pandemic made the digitalisation
process a revolution, rather than the evolution it
was before. The ‘digitalisation process’ in this sense
however, does include the overall adoption of
emerging technologies such as those covered inearlier chapters. The pandemic forced the transition
to the digital domain, and along the way, removed(or reduced) obstacles and biases that were
hampering the adoption of new technologies
before. Now the steps have been made (notably,
the investments and implementations) and we havebecome accustomed to their benefits, there is, inmany cases, little reason to return to pre-pandemic
practices. As the earlier chapters have pointed out,
the adoption (as well as the benefits) were notequal among economies or industries. However,those business for whom the investments are still
not justifiable, thanks to the pandemic they can lookforward to the trickle-down-effect bringing(previously) unobtainable solutions within reachmuch sooner.

What this has meant so far, and what it will to agreater extent in the near future, is that a large
share of the interactions, activities, and services
that used to be ‘on location’ or ‘in person’, now willtake place online. Most notably of course, is the riseof E-commerce (used here in the broadest sense of
the concept). The number of services offered
online, and the frequency to which we use them is
expected to keep increasing after the pandemic,
resulting in drastic changes in how we do business.
Of course, some services and interactions will, for alarge part, return back to the old situation.
Education and restaurant visits are the mostobvious examples services for which the online
solutions were mostly a temporary necessity thatcan (for now) not realistically replace the ‘in person’and ‘on location’ offerings. However overall, itcannot be denied that the move to online ishappening, and happening fast.
In a similar way, it appears that work activities will
increasingly shift to online (and cloud), partially to55

❺facilitate for a larger part of our activities to be
carried out from home. Depending on the type ofwork, remote working seems to be one of thechanges (particularly in developed economies like inEurope and Japan) that will have a far larger place inthe post-pandemic world than it had in the prepandemic one. This, due to the many benefits it
offers both employee and employer. Subsequently,
it will also be one of the most substantial societal
and economic changes brought about by the
pandemic.

This brings us to the following. It is certain that the
pandemic will leave behind its imprints on theworld, one of which in the form of a drasticallyaccelerated digitalisation and adoption of newtechnologies. This will, arguably, be looked back at
as one of the pandemic’s very few favourable byproducts, as it sped up a process critical for creating
a more sustainable future. After all, the reason
governments and businesses alike, are committed todigitalisation is that is an essential step for achieving‘future readiness’ in terms of efficiency,
adaptiveness,andresilience
(and
thus,
competitiveness). But in addition, it certainly is avery important process for realising our collective
sustainability
andenvironmental
ambitions,provided it is inclusive in nature.

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Recommendations & Suggestions
With the summation of the findings, we proceedwith what this, in more concrete terms, means for
those looking to prepare for the coming years in(hopefully) a post-pandemic world. These suggestions and recommendations are meant to be nonindustry, country, or business specific, and will
therefore apply to the majority of situations. Of
course, due to the target audience of this report,
the recommendation are most relevant to developed economies, like those of Europe and Japan.

Do Not Fall Behind in the
Digitalisation Process
The first take-away, and urgent recommendation, is
to not make the mistake of underestimating the
speed as to which the digitalisation process is taking
place. Also, one should not underestimate the potential risk of falling behind in this transition, as it
will become more and more difficult to catch up.
Therefore, make sure to (continually) educate one’s
self on the technological developments in ones industry (and adoption by customers/partners/
employees), and prepare to quickly adapt whenevernecessary. We have come to a point where it could
be considered the norm, to have thoroughly incorporate ‘digital’ into one’s business strategy. In addition, the pandemic has (if anything) illustrated theimportance of a ‘Business Continuity Strategy’,
which of course should incorporate digital solutions.

Take the Opportunity toAssess and Adjust
Current chaotic times are also one that create theopportunity for some self-reflection and rethinkingof the way we operate. The crisis following the pandemic has for many been a harsh confrontation withreality, as it highlighted all their weaknesses andshortcomings. Therefore, taking what we havelearned over this period and making use of the latest insights, could help with establishing a more
effective and ‘future proof’ strategy. As for digitalisation, the rapid developments we currently see,can be a great opportunity for testing and trying
new things for one’s business. In fact, dependingon the industry, this could be the perfect (if not only) moment for making some drastic changes, andcompletely change course to better fit the market of
tomorrow.

Make use of the Transition
to ‘Online’ & ‘Remote’In the same way (depending on the situation), do
not let the opportunity to be an early adapter in thismomentous move to E-commerce, online services,and remote solutions go by. Again, do not underestimate the current speed of this development, nor
the strategic benefits of being a forerunner in thismovement. The transition gives businesses the opportunity to revamp their operations, update or expand their services, and create new ways of interacting with their stakeholders. As such, it could givea great competitive advantage to those making gooduse of this opportunity over those that don’t.

Do Not Give up on
Sustainability Goals & Efforts
With all the uncertainties at the moment, it mightseem that the climate and environmental issues areless of a priority, and related efforts should therefore be put on hold. However, not only is the current opportunity for reshaping one’s business andstrategy, it is just as much an opportunity to asses
one’s sustainability and environmental plans. In
fact, one of the benefits of digitalisation are thepossibilities it offers to make business operations
more sustainable. Besides, considering the unhampered determination shown by world and businessleaders to maintain their climate and sustainability
targets, it suggests that partaking in these efforts
will be the norm in the ‘new normal’. Failing to conform to expectations could therefore become athreat.
The closing words and final advise, is to look towards the coming years, knowing the postpandemic world is on its way, and with it, many

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Main Events and Policy
Responses in the EU and JapanJANUARY• First cases in: France, Germany, Finland,
Italy, Spain, and Sweden.

• The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control publishes its first risk
assessment on the virus outbreak109.

• Japan confirms its first cases of the virus107.

• Japan evacuates its citizens from Wuhan,
China129.

2020

FEBRUARY

MARCH• First cases in 14 more EU countries.

• Virus now in all EU countries.

• The first restrictions of movement and• ECDC raises risk level to ‘high’110.

110

travel are implemented in Europe .

• EU public events are cancelled110.
• Japan implements travel restrictions for• EU countries start implementing increasingly strict measures.110• Japan unveils a ¥430.8 billion support

foreign nationals130, 131.

• Japanese officials quarantine a cruise shipat the port of Yokohama132.

package to help SMEs that are hit by thevirus outbreak133.

• Japan announces postponing the 2020
Olympics134.

APRIL

MAY

JUNE

• Many European countries, regions and• Across the EU, some restrictive measures• European governments increase theircities remain under lockdown.

are (partially) lifted113.

• The initial state of emergency declared in• The European Commission predicts asome Japanese prefectures is extended to
the whole country135.

“deep and uneven recession” with a reduced economic output of 7%114.

• The government unveils a ¥108.2 trillion
economic stimulus plan136.

• Japan lifts the ’state of emergency’ formost of the country with the exception ofTokyo and Osaka138.

• Japan approves ‘remdesvir’ as a treatment

financial aid in efforts of easing the pandemic’s economic burden115, 116, 117, 118, 119.

• The EU considers (partially) opening its
borders120.

• The Japanese government lifts all domestic travel restrictions140.

• The Japanese border reopens for somecountries in the region141.

for COVID-19139.

JULY

AUGUSTSEPTEMBER• The EU reopens borders for 15 countries121• Southern and Eastern European countries• The infection rates in Europe keep increas-

and announces €750 billion recovery
plan122report drastic spikes in infections107.

ing and return to March levels124.

• The governor of the Japanese prefecture• New measures and restrictions are an-• The EU secures a €63 million supply of

Okinawa declares a state of emergency144.

nounced across Europe 125.

123

’remdesvir’ .

• Yoshihide Suga officially takes over as• Tokyo raises alert to highest level follow-

Prime Minister of Japan after Shinzo Abe
resigns due to health reasons145.

ing infection surge142.

•• The Japanese minister of economy calls on
employers to facilitate remote work andsocial distancing143.

OCTOBERNOVEMBER

DECEMBER• Spain declares state of emergency126.

• Infections keep increasing at a staggering• Various European countries impose fur-

• European countries increase restrictions
on movement and other measures in
effort of ‘flattening the curve’125.

• The number of confirmed cases in Japansurpasses the 100.000146.

• Japan partially reopens its borders forbusiness visits or those seeking mid– tolong term residence status147.

rate107.

• The Czech Republic extends the state of
emergency127.

• Tokyo sees another drastic spike in infections and introduces new, stricter
measures in response148.

ther travel restrictions in reaction to the
newly discovered COVID mutation in the
UK99, 105.

• The EUI approves the Pfizer-BioNTech
vaccine 128.

• Japan reports a drastic increase in infections149.

• Japan re-imposes entry restrictions
to travelers from overseas150.

74