Ex-Ante Evaluation Paper (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department, JICA
1.

Name of the ProjectCountry: India
Project: Mumbai Metro Line 3 Project (III)Loan Agreement: March 27, 2020
2.

Background and Necessity of the Project(1)
Current State and Issues of the Urban Transportation Sector in India
In India, a country that has undergone rapid urbanization in recent years, while
the demand for road transportation is increasing as the number of registeredautomobiles rapidly increases (55 million in 2001 to 230 million in 2017), thepublic transportation infrastructure has not been developed and trafficcongestion has become a serious problem in large cities such as Delhi, Mumbai,
and Ahmedabad, so economic loss and health hazards due to automobilepollution, such as air pollution and noise, etc.. are growing into serious problems.
Therefore, it has become necessary to develop public transportation systems toimprove traffic congestion and the urban environment.
The Government of India, in the New Metro Policy established in 2017, hasplaced emphasis on the development of the public transportation system in orderto address the issues above from the perspectives of responses to the increaseddemand for transportation, safety and energy efficiency improvement, and socialenvironment conservation.
The Mumbai metropolitan area, which has a population of 23.6 million as of2019, is one of the largest metropolitan areas in India. Mumbai, located at thecenter of an area whose population density is 26,900 people/km2, is an
overpopulated city whose population density is the fourth highest in the world. Aswith the whole of India, the number of registered automobiles in Mumbai hasrapidly increased, from 1.03 million in 2001 to 3.06 million in 2017. Therefore,
the average vehicle speed in major roads of the city is 15km/h (2017), causing
serious traffic congestion. On the other hand, the development of a large-scaletransportation system has become a challenge because it is difficult to expand
road networks owing to insufficient sites, and it is difficult to improve thetransportation capacity of busses that already exist in public transportation. The
Government of Maharashtra formulated the Mumbai Metro Master Plan inJanuary 2004 toward the mitigation of congested existing public transportation,improvement of traffic conditions, and mitigation of air pollution in Mumbai
metropolitan area. They have promoted the plan centered on a total of nine linesof the mass high-speed transportation system and the development of urban
railways, which extend for 147.4km. Against such a background, the Mumbai
Metro Line 3 Project (hereafter “the Project”), which starts from the southernedge of Mumbai, goes through the central part of the city, connects to Mumbai
International Airport, and reaches the suburban area in the northern part of thecity, is regarded as a project which should be implemented early and anessential project for the promotion of economic growth of the Mumbai
metropolitan area.
Japan and JICA’s Urban Transportation Sector/India Cooperation Policy
and the Positioning of the Project
In Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016), where connection
enhancement through the development of transportation infrastructure, etc. was(2)set as an assistance priority field, with the removal of bottlenecks in theinfrastructure to the investment and growth in mind, it is necessary to develop
railways (including high-speed railways and urban railways) in order to enhance
the connection between major industrial cities, economic zones, and the regionsin India. Moreover, in the paper of the JICA Country Analysis Paper for India(March 2018), an analysis shows that it is necessary to promote thedevelopment of the regional economy, promote the efficiency of logistics, andsupport infrastructure development such as trunk railways, urban railways, roads,and harbors that contribute to the investment expansion by foreign capital mainlyin the regions of concentrated industry such as special economic zones andeconomic corridors, etc. located in 6 major metropolitan areas in India and theDelhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor in order to remove bottlenecks in the economicgrowth. The Project is consistent with the policies and these analyses.
Furthermore, in the ODA loan to India, there is an approval record of 66 loans,
2.5845 trillion yen as of the end of July 2019, to the transportation traffic sector,
and assistance has been provided to subway projects from Delhi Metro to therailroad and urban transportation sector, with an ODA loan approval record of 41loans, 2.0413 trillion yen as of the end of July 2019. Moreover, the first loan(2013 L/A signed, approved amount: 71,000 million yen) and the second loan
(2018 L/A signed, approved amount: 100,000 million yen) have already been
provided for the Project.
Furthermore, the Project is considered to contribute to the achievement of theSDGs

Goal

9(constructionofrobustinfrastructures)

andGoal

11(comprehensive, safe, robust, and sustainable city).
(3)
Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank is supporting the Mumbai Urban Transportation Project(development of roads and suburban railways) and the Eastern Corridor
Development of Freight Railway Construction Plan, etc. and has an approval
record of 81 loans,18,274 million dollars as of the end of July 2019, to thetransportation traffic sector. The Asian Development Bank has an approval
record of 176 million dollars to Jaipur Metro and has performed co-financing withthe New Development Bank to Mumbai Metro (2A, 2B, and Line 7) in February
2019 (approved amounts are 926 million dollars and 260 million dollars
respectively), and has an approval record of 61 loans, 14,532 million dollars, asof July 2019. AFD has approval records of 180 million euros to Kochi Metro inFebruary 2014 and 310 million euro to Bangalore Metro in January 2016. The
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank performed co-financing with the European
Investment Bank to Bangalore Metro in December 2017 (approved amounts are
335 million dollars and 583 million dollars respectively).
3.

Project Description(1)
Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to cope with the increase of traffic demand in
Mumbai by expanding the mass rapid transportation system, thereby promoting
regional economic development and improving urban environment, throughmitigation of traffic jams and decrease of pollution caused by increasing motorvehicles.
(2)
Project Site / Target Area
Mumbai metropolitan area, Maharashtra(3)
Project Componentsa) Civil engineering work and building work (all lines underground: approx.
33.7km, 26 stations, one at grade station)b) Vehicle maintenance base facility procurementc) Track work (laying rail tracks of approx. 33.7km)d) Electric and machine work (development of wires and substations, etc.)e) Signal and communication work (development of signal and communicationsystems)f) Automated charge-receiving system procurement

g) Underground section ventilation facility installation workh) Automatic elevating facility installationi) Vehicle procurement (248 cars: 8 cars per line x 31 lines)j) Other (vehicle maintenance base work, station security facility procurement)k) Consulting services (bidding assistance and construction management, etc.)
All items above except j) are a target of ODA loans. (As for rolling stocks, ODA
loan covers procurement of 210 rail cars)(4)
Estimated Project Cost
523,997 million yen (of which, the ODA Loan amount is 39,928 million yen)
(5)
ScheduleJune 2013 - December 2021 (103 months in total). The Project will becompleted upon the commencement of services of all facilities (December2021).
(6)
Project Implementation System
1) Borrower: President of India
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing Agency: Mumbai Metro Rail Corporation Limited: MMRCL
4)
Operation and Maintenance System: The maintenance/management
after the completion of the project is to be performed directly by the MMRCL(7)
Collaboration with Other Schemes and Donors
1) Japan’s Assistance Activity: N/A
2) Other Donors’ Assistance Activities: The World Bank is developing theroads and suburban railways in the Mumbai urban transportation project. The
Asian Development Bank performed co-financing with the New Development
Bank to Mumbai Metro (2A, 2B, and Line 7) in February 2019.
(8)
Environmental and Social Consideration / Cross-Sectoral Issues /Gender Category
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason for Categorization
The Project falls into the railway sector and is likely to have asignificant adverse impact due to its characteristics under the Japan
International Cooperation Agency Guidelines for Environmental andSocial Considerations (published in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit
Although there is no obligation to prepare an environmental impactassessment (EIA) report concerning the Project in the domestic laws ofIndia, it was already prepared in September 2012. In implementing theProject, it is necessary to obtain tree-cutting permission, forest clearance,and coastal regulation zone clearance by the time of initiation of work insome regions, and all such approvals had already been obtained by
September 2019.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures
For the work, mitigation measures such as pollutant countermeasuresand appropriate management of work vehicles and heavy equipment
have been taken. Regarding the impact of work on the ground, nosignificant impact due to subsidence is expected because loose groundand influx of underground water are prevented by the adoption of a shieldtunneling method. After the commencement of services, mitigation
measures are taken, such as sound insulating walls as a noise
countermeasure, the installation of elastic rubber layers under tracks as avibration countermeasure, and the installation of an effluent treatment
facility at the vehicle base as a water quality pollution countermeasure.
Moreover, in the resident discussions concerning the EIA report of theProject, concerns about the noise, air pollution, and disposal of work
surplus soil and requests for the work restriction at nighttime werereceived, so the implementation institutions have promised andimplemented the mitigation measures and monitoring respectively. At
present, no particular objection to the Project has been made byresidents.
⑤ Natural Environment
The Project target region is located 1.5 km away from Sanjay Gandhi
National Park, but no rare species of animals, etc. inhabit the surrounding
areas, so the adverse effect on the natural environment is expected to beminimal. It is necessary to cut down 5,731 trees in total and 0.91ha ofmangrove forest in order to implement the Project, so alternative tree
planting has been performed. Moreover, some residents conductedactivities against tree cutting in the planned site for Cuffe Parade Stationin Colaba region and filed a lawsuit with Mumbai High Court seeking theProject’s suspension on February 3, 2017, but it was dismissed by theSupreme Court on May 18, 2017. The MMRCL were cutting trees startingfrom the work section, for which permission and approval have been

obtained, and suspended cutting trees in the district which was the targetof lawsuit during the lawsuit period but restarted after the dismissal.
Moreover, residents are conducting activities against tree cutting
concerning the construction of an early colony vehicle base, and theimplementation institution is providing further explanation to residents
toward consensus formation.
⑥ Social Environment
The land acquisition area of the Project is approx. 76.00ha (privateproperty: approx. 2.86ha) and 1,837 households (5,119 people) of 2,888
households (7,273 people) that are affected by the Project are expected
to be relocated. The MMRCL, holding discussions with the people
affected by the land acquisition and resettlement, is going throughprocedures in accordance with the resettlement action plan (based on theAct on New Site Acquisition and resident transfer policies of the state
government of Maharashtra, etc.) formulated to meet the requirements of
JICA guidelines and is planning to complete the procedures of landacquisition and resettlement by June 2020. Moreover, ownership of asection of the housing project prepared in the suburbs of Mumbai andtransfer expenses, etc. are offered to illegal residents.
⑦ Other / MonitoringIn the Project, the MMRCL performs the monitoring of land acquisition andresettlement during the construction and the contractor performs the monitoringof noise, vibration, soil, air quality, water quality, and waste, etc. under thesupervision of the MMRCL. After the commencement of services, the MMRCL
performs the monitoring of noise, vibration, air quality, and water quality, etc.
Moreover, the MMRCL is using its own capital to employ external professional
consultants and performing the monitoring of land acquisition, resettlement,and living conditions after the relocation.
2) Cross-Sectoral IssuesA lot of workers engaged in the Project are residing alone and presumed tohave a high risk of HIV infection, so referring to the countermeasures in Delhi
Metro, the MMRCL is using its own capital to conduct HIV/AIDS prevention
activities in collaboration with NGOs also in the Project as a social contributionactivity. At the same time, the HIV/AIDS prevention provisions are contained inbidding documents, and contractors are requested to collaborate in HIV/AIDS
countermeasures for workers.

In accordance with the domestic regulations of India, station buildings andpassenger carriages considerate of utilization by elderly and disabled people,etc. (elevator, toilet, announcements at a station, Braille blocks, and space forwheelchairs, etc.) are adopted, and customer care training is planned to beprovided to all frontline staff such as station staff and crew.
Moreover, regarding the climate change, the traffic congestion due to theutilization of automobiles is mitigated by constructing a mass high-speedtransportation system, which contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions. The climate change mitigation effect of the Project (estimatedGHG emissions reduction) is approx. 261,968 tons of CO2/year.
3) Gender Category: ■GI (S) (Gender activity integration project)<Activities/Classification Rationale>
The Project is making efforts such as allocating priority seats, installing CCTV
cameras in station buildings and passenger carriages, and low straps, etc. sothat women can use the subways safely and comfortably. Therefore, it falls
under the category of an integrated gender activity project.
(9)
Other Important Issues: N/A
4.

Targeted Outcomes(1)
Quantitative Effects
1) Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Indicator

Baseline(in FY2014)

Target (2023)[2 Years after Completion]

Vehicle operation rate (%/year)－

87

Vehicle kilometer (x 1,000 km/day)－73

Number of times trains areoperated (times/day, one direction)－

Passenger transportation amount(x 1 million people, km/day)
Passenger revenue (x 1 millionrupee/day)

－
－

676
13.8
28.3

The section between Cuffe Parade Station and the Early Colony Vehicle Base Station(measured by the MMRCL)(2)
Qualitative Effects
Improvement of traffic conditions in the Mumbai metropolitan area (reductionin the number of vehicles), mitigation of pollution, mitigation of climate change,improvement of convenience by securing the punctuality of transportation, andeconomic growth in the Mumbai metropolitan area.
(3)
Internal Rate of ReturnAccording to the following preconditions, the Project’s Economic Internal Rateof Return (EIRR) will be 12.96%. The Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)
will be 2.23%.
[EIRR]
Cost: Project costs and operation/maintenance costs (both excluding tax)
Benefit: Operation/maintenance cost reduction effects concerningtransportation and roads (including road congestion mitigation and bus
transportation), travel time reduction effects for the users of the main line
and other transportation, reduction in traffic accidents, and pollution(including greenhouse gases) mitigation effects.
Project Life: 30 years[FIRR]
Cost: Project costs (including taxes) and operation/maintenance costs
Benefit: Passenger revenue, advertising revenue, and in-station
development revenue
Project Life: 30 years
5.

External Factors and Risk Control(1)

Preconditions: N/A(2)

External Factors: N/A

6.

Lessons Learned from Past Projects and Application to the Project

Lessons were obtained from the results of an ex-post evaluation of the Delhi
High-Speed Transportation System Construction Project in India that tell us it ispreferable to encourage public transportations to collaborate with each other tocompose systematic urban transportation and be managed efficiently as a whole
public transportation instead of competitive relationships and it is important toestablish a financially-independent project implementation system from theperspective of securing appropriate operation and maintenance.
In the Project also, discussions have been had concerning the connection
arrangement with bus lines managed by Brihanmumbai Electric Supply andTransport and Mumbai Metro Line 1 and 2 and monorails implemented by theMMRDA. Moreover, the MMRCL is planning a project related to commerce andreal estate development and is making efforts to enhance financial strength.
7.

Evaluation Results
JICA has supported metro projects in large metropolitan areas, and the Projectcontributes to the balanced economic growth in the Mumbai metropolitan area
through traffic congestion mitigation and traffic pollution reduction in the area,
which is consistent with the assistance policies of our country and JICA.
Moreover, the Project is considered to contribute to the achievement of SDGs
goal 9 (construction of robust infrastructures) and goal 11 (comprehensive, safe,robust, and sustainable city), so it is highly necessary for JICA to support theimplementation of the Project.
8.

Plan for Future Evaluation(1)
Indicators to be Used
As indicated in sections 4. (1) to (3).
(2)
Timing of the Next Evaluation
Two years after the project completion
End