4DH Forum International Conference
Friday 20 October in Tokyo

Smart Energy System and 4GDH for decarbonization
Professor Henrik Lund
Aalborg Universitet

Henrik Lund, Aalborg University, Denmark

Jutland/Denmark (2022):• approx. 50% wind power• High share of the world’s offshore power• 30-50% of electricity supplied by CHP• >50% District Heating• > 30% Biogas in the natural gas supply

100% Renewable Energy 2050
Or a Climate Neutral Economy…… but how…???!!

Energi System Analyse Model

Import/Export
fixed andvariable

www.EnergyPLAN.eu
Hydro waterHydrostorage

Hydro
power plant

Electricity
storagesystemRES
electricity

CoolingdevicePPFuelHeatpump andelectricboiler

CHP

Boiler

CoolingdemandHeatdemandHeatstorage

RES heat
H2 storage

Electricity
demandElectrolyser
Transport
demandCars

Industry

ProcessheatdemandA Holistic Smart Energy Systems ApproachSmart Energy Systems:
Hourly modelling of all smart
grids to identify synergies!
… and influence of different
types of energy storage..!

Energy Storage

Thermal Storage
1-4 €/kWh(Source: Danish Technology
Catalogue, 2012)

Pump Hydro Storage
175 €/kWh(Source: Electricity Energy Storage
Technology Options: A White Paper
Primer on Applications, Costs, andBenefits. Electric Power ResearchInstitute, 2010)

Oil Tank
0.02 €/kWhNatural Gas Underground Storage
0.05 €/kWh(Source: Current State Of and Issues
Concerning Underground Natural Gas
Storage. Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission, 2004)(Source: Dahl KH, Oiltanking Copenhagen A/S,2013: Oil Storage Tank.
2013)

Existing distribution grids

www.4DH.dk

Hydrogen for heating of houses..???
Hydrogen(Efficiency=0.65)

Electric Heating(COP=1)

3,500 houses

Windturbine
15 MW

Heat Pumps(COP=3)16,000 houses

5,300 houses

Windturbine
15 MW

Windturbine
15 MW

Smart Energy Systems
District Heating+25,000 houses

Windturbine
15 MW

Smart Heating Europe

Heat Roadmap Europe

IDAs Climate Response: In a European context
Denmark should fulfill its objective of renewable energy and CO2reductions in a way, so it fits well into a context in which the rest ofEurope - and the world - will do the same.
Therefore:• Denmark should include the Danish share of international aviation andshipping even though it is not included yet in the UN way of calculating
the Danish CO2 emissions.
• Denmark should not exceed our share of sustainable use of biomass inthe world.
• Denmark should make our contribution in terms of flexibility and reserve
capacity to integrate wind and solar into the European electricity supply.

IDA´s Climate Response 2045
How Denmark Can Become Climate Neutral- Include Danish Share of International Aviation and Shipping- Within the Danish share of Global Sustainable Biomass resources- Reach the 2050 climate neutral goal already in 2045
- Coordinated with actions within agriculture, LULUFC and processesA fully decarbonized Denmark 2045

2045

Biomasse
2045
Overview:(153 PJ minus
eksport 13 PJ =140 PJ svarende
til 23 GJ/capita)

Heat Plan Denmark 2021

Varmeplan Danmark 2021
Brian Vad Mathiesen, Henrik Lund, Steffen Nielsen, Peter Sorknæs, Diana Carolina Moreno Saltos og Jakob Z. Thellufsen
Aalborg Universitet

Why Heat Plan Denmark2021?
How can the heating sector best support the political goals?
• 70% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2030
• Climate-neutral Denmark in 2050
Key questions:• Where is the balance between heat savings and heat supply?
• Where should there be district heating and where should it beindividual?
• What should the individual heat supply be based on?
• Where should the district heating come from?
• What are the innovative challenges e.g. 4th generation district heating,smart meters, digitization, power2X, data centers, geothermal, etc.
• How does the heating sector best help in terms of flexibility in the entire
energy supply?

22

23

Four main points•

Energy savings in the building stock are important. A good balance between
energy savings and renewable energy must be achieved to have low costs and low
fuel consumption. This means that a continued focus on energy renovation inbuildings is important to implement savings of 32-36%.

•District heating should be expanded to cover 63-70% of the heat market as
individual natural gas and oil-fired boilers are phased out in existing urban areas
and as new urban areas emerge. Outside the district heating areas, the heat shouldcome from individual heat pumps supplemented by solar thermal. This
combination provides the most energy efficient and flexible solution.

•In district heating, a targeted focus should be placed on a transition to 4th
generation district heating with lower temperatures. It provides the lowest costand most efficient use of geothermal heat, waste heat, and large heat pumps.

•In future low-carbon energy systems there is great potential for utilizing
geothermal and waste heat from industry, data centers, and Power-to-X. These
opportunities should be exploited.

• Energy savings in the building stock are important.
• What is the right balance between energy savings and energy
efficiencies and renewable energy.
• Financially, the balance is 36% (saving of DKK 1.1-1.3 billion / year)• The pressure on biomass can be reduced for a marginal extra costby going to 40%

Renovation

Marginal cost [DKK/kWh]36-40% energy savings in thebuilding stock

Heat production

Energi savings [kWh]

65

350

300

60

250
55200
50

150

45

100

4050

35030-50

25-100-150

200%

10%

20%
Level of heat savings

Biomasseforbrug

30%

Samlede omkostninger

40%

District heating should beexpanded to 63-70%•Current: Current buildings registered with district heating (~ 50%)

•Densification: All buildings in areas designated for district heating (~ 59%)•

Minimum expansion: Expansions to urban areas with heat density above 15 kWh/m2 (~ 63%)

•Recommended expansion: Expansions to urban areas with heat density above 10 kWh/m2 (~ 70%)•

Maximum expansion: Expansions to urban areas with heat density above 5 kWh/m2 (~ 74%)Natural gas conversion:•

260,000 to district heating•

115,000 to indv. heat pumps

Oil boiler conversion:•44,000 to district heating•

70,000 to indv. heat pumps

Biomass boiler conversion:•

74,000 to district heating•

183,000 to indv. heat pumps4th generation (low temperature)
district heating

In the district heating supply, a targeted
focus should be placed on the transition to
4th generation district heating with lower
temperatures. It provides the lowest costs
and the most efficient use of geothermalenergy, waste heat, efficient electrification
through large heat pumps and existing andnew heat storages.

Large potentials for geothermal and excess heat

In the energy system of the future,
there is great potential for
geothermal and waste heat fromindustry, data centers and PtX.
These opportunities should be
exploited.

Part of an overall solution
A changing heating sector

Maps from Heat Plan Denmark 2021 available online
Findes på hjemmesiden:
https://energymaps.plan.aau.dk/
Here are 4 different maps:
1. Heat consumption in urban areas
2. District heating expansion scenarios
3. Industrial waste heat
4. Map of "free" baseload in the district heating

https://vbn.aau.dk/da/projects/varmeplan-danmark-2021-en-klimaneutral-varmeforsyningwww.henriklund.eu

www.4DH.dk

More information:
https://www.energyplan.eu/book2/
www.energyplan.eu/SmartEnergyEurope

www.heatroadmap.eu
www.EnergyPLAN.eu
www.energyplan.eu/smartenergysystems/