Japanese ODA Loan
Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
Office for Indian High Speed Rail, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
1. Basic Information
Country: Republic of India (India)
Project Name: Project for the Construction of Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail(III)Loan Agreement：July 25, 2022
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Railway Sector in India
In recent years, India's remarkable economic growth, population growth, andurbanization have led to a rapid increase in domestic rail passenger and freighttransport. The volume of passenger and freight transport in 2019 reachedapproximately 1.7 times and 2.6 times respectively, compared with in 2000
(Ministry of Railways (MoR) of India, 2020). On the other hand, track capacity asof 2014 was only about 50% of the amount expected to be needed for passenger
and freight transport in 2032 (DFCCIL, 2014). Furthermore, existing
conventional rail lines are facing frequent delays and other problems; therefore,
development of a smooth passenger and freight transport system are expected
in India. In particular, the States of Maharashtra and Gujarat are expected tocontinue stable economic growth over the next 30 years (Planning Commissionof India, 2014), and JICA's "Joint Feasibility Study for Mumbai-Ahmedabad HighSpeed Railway Corridor (hereinafter referred to as the "F/S Survey")" for the"Project for the Construction of Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail(hereinafter referred to as "the Project")" estimates that the number of daily
passengers between Mumbai and Ahmedabad on the four types oftransportation mode (air, rail, long-distance bus, and automobile) will increase
approximately 9.8 times from 2014 (approximately 154,000 passengers) to 2053
(approximately 1.5 million passengers), and approximately 200,000 of thesepassengers will use the High Speed Rail in 2053.
Under these circumstances, in the "Indian Railway Vision 2020" formulated inDecember 2009, the MoR of India has set forth the development of High Speed
Rail lines in addition to the modernization of conventional lines and theenhancement of transportation capacity. In 2012, "the Expert Group forModernization of Indian Railways" established by the MoR to implement thispolicy, recommended that the Mumbai-Ahmedabad section be designated as thehighest priority section and that High Speed Rail projects be promoted.
Furthermore, in December 2015, the Prime Minister of Japan and India agreed
in a joint statement that the Mumbai-Ahmedabad section "will be developed withthe use of Japanese high speed rail technologies (i.e. the Shinkansen system)and experiences" and that "both sides will take necessary steps so that financial
and technical assistance for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Railway(MAHSR) project will be provided by relevant Japanese institutions". At theJapan-India summit meeting in September 2021, the importance of the Projectand preparations for its early opening were confirmed. As described above, theProject is positioned as an important project in the Indian Railways Sector
Development Policy.
(2) Japan’s and JICA’s Policy Cooperation Policy and Operations in the Railway
Sector
The Country Development Cooperation Policy for India (March 2016) indicates"Enhancing Connectivity" through the development of transportation
infrastructure and other infrastructure as a priority area. The Policy promotes
development of railways (including High Speed Rail and metro) to enhanceconnectivity within major industrial cities and economic zones and between
regions in India with a view to eliminating infrastructure bottlenecks to investmentand growth. In addition, the JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018)
analyzes the need for support for infrastructure development, including main
railway, metros, roads, and ports, to eliminate bottlenecks to economic growth.
Also, to support sustainable and inclusive growth, the JICA will promote
cooperation in addressing environmental and climate change issues, and theProject is in line with these policies and analyses. Furthermore, it has been
repeatedly confirmed in the Japan-India Joint Statement and at the Japan-India
Summit that the Project will be promoted as a flagship project between the twocountries. In addition, this Project will contribute to SDGs Goal 8 "Promotesustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive
employment and decent work for all"; Goal 9 "Build resilient infrastructure,promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation"; Goal
11 "Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable"
and Goal 13 " Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts."(3) Other Donors’ Activity
The World Bank supports the Mumbai Urban Transport Project (USD 972 million,approved in 2002 and 2010) and the development of the Eastern DedicatedFreight Corridor (USD 2,725 million, approved in 2011,2014 and 2015). The
Asian Development Bank (ADB) supports Jaipur Metro (USD 176 million,approved in 2014), Bengaluru Metro line 2A/2B (USD500 million, approved in2021) and jointly supports Mumbai Metro line 2A/2B and 7 with New
Development Bank (NDB) (ADB: USD 926 million (2019), NDB: USD 260 million(2018)).
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The Project aims to develop a high-frequency transportation system byconstructing a high-speed rail along an approximately 500-km section between
Mumbai in Maharashtra and Ahmedabad in Gujarat, with the use of JapaneseHigh Speed Rail technologies, thereby improving the connectivity in India andcontributing to the broad economic development of the target area.
(2)

Project Site/Target Area
Gujarat State, Maharashtra State, Dadra and Nagar Haveli (Total Population:
about 170 million (2011))

(3)Project Componentsa) Civil Engineering/Construction Work (Viaducts section: about 450km, Tunnel
section: about 25km (including undersea tunnel), Others (Particular Bridgeetc.): about 25km, Station building (12 stations))b) Railroad Track Construction Workc) Electrical/Mechanical Workd) Depot Construction Worke) Procurement of Rolling Stocks/Track Inspection Vehiclesf) Procurement of Inspection/Maintenance Carg) Consulting Services (construction supervision (quality control, safety
management, Environmental and Social Consideration Support),
Technology transfer to improve executing agency’s capacity to supervise
construction, etc.)(4) Estimated Project Cost
1,806,282 million yen (F/S basis. Currently under review between theGovernment of India and the Government of Japan, in light of subsequentchanges in the economic environment and other factors.) (Japanese ODA Loanfor Tranche (III): 100,000 million yen)(5) Schedule
Under discussion between the Government of India and the Government ofJapan.
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing Agency: National High Speed Rail Corporation Limited(hereinafter referred to as “NHSRCL”)
4) Operation and Maintenance Agency：Same as above 3).
(7) Collaboration and Division of Roles with Other Projects and Donors
1) Japan’s Assistance Activities
In association with the Project, the following Technical Assistance underFinance and Investment Account has been implemented.
Name of JICA Project
Joint Feasibility Studyfor Mumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed RailwayCorridor (F/S Survey)
The Detailed Design
Study of the Mumbai Ahmedabad High Speed
Railway Project

PeriodDecember
2013 – June2015

Relationship with the Project● Preparatory Survey of the ProjectDecember
2016 – October
2022 (Planned)● Detailed design study of the Project(D/D).
● Basic design, detailed design,
preparation of tender documents
and tender assistance regarding
the Project as well as Constructionof Training Institute for MAHSR

●Project.
Developing various regulationsrelated toconstruction/operation/maintenanc
e of high speed rail and drafting atraining plan for training lecturers.
Technical assistance by Japan
Railway Company to NHSRCL bymaking good use of experiences asa bullet train operator in Japan
Providing training in Japan for
operation and maintenance of High
Speed Rail and for thedevelopment of the humanresources required for suchoperation and maintenance for
NHSRCL staff (including Key O&M
Leaders) who play a key role.
Detailed design study of theElectrical Packages

Capacity development ofthe Construction ofHigh Speed RailwayCorridor
Core Staff Training for
Key Operation and
Maintenance Leaders of
Mumbai - Ahmadabad
High Speed Railway

August 2017 –March 2023
(Planned)●October 2021
－July 2022(Planned)●The Detailed Design
Study for the Electrical
packages of theMumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed Rail Project
Experts for Acting on
behalf of Employer's
Works for Detailed
Design Documents ofElectrical Packages for
Mumbai-Ahmadabad
High Speed Rail Project

January 2022
－March 2025
(Planned)●January 2022
－March 2025
(Planned)● Japan High Speed Rail ElectricEngineering Co., Ltd. acts onbehalf of Employer's Works for
Detailed Design Documents ofElectrical Packages2) Other Development Partners’ Assistance Activities:
None in particular(8) Environmental and Social Consideration/Cross-Sectoral
Category
1) Environmental and Social Consideration(i) Category: A

Issues/Gender(ii) Reason for Categorization: This Project falls into the railway sector andhas influential characteristics, both being shown in the JICA Guidelines
for Environmental and Social Considerations (proclaimed in April 2010).
(iii) Environmental Permit
Although preparation of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
Report is not required under the domestic law in India, it was prepared by
the NHSRCL in July 2015, and an updated version reflecting thesubsequent change in the project plan, etc. was prepared in August
2018.

(iv) Anti-Pollution Measures
During construction, air pollution and water pollution concomitant withdrilling and construction machine operation are handled by watering, theuse of dustproof sheets, wastewater treatment plants, etc. Regarding thewaste, excavated soil generated by the tunnel construction is reused in
the section for the embankment, etc., and the rest of the soil is properly
disposed of at designated disposal sites. In the section of tunnel
construction, the ground is solid and implementation of appropriate
construction methods is planned to prevent loose ground and the inflowof groundwater; therefore, a serious impact due to ground subsidence is
not expected, however, it will be confirmed at the stage of detail design.
Regarding noise and vibration concomitant with the blasting work,
operation time will be limited to minimize the impact on neighborhoods.
With respect to noise, vibration, etc. due to running cars when inoperation, countermeasures such as the installation of soundproof wallsare taken to minimize the impact. Regarding the noise/vibration of thetunnel portion and the elevated portion, it is aimed to be reduced by themaintenance of the railroad track on a regular basis and compliance withthe speed limit.
(v) Natural Environment
The target area of the Project extends through the core zone and thebuffer zone of Thane Creek Flamingo Sanctuary, the buffer zone ofSanjay Gandhi National Park, and the buffer zone of Tungareshwar
Wildlife Sanctuary. It was confirmed that Environmental Clearance fordevelopment in these was obtained on April 24, 2019. Around the Thane
Creek Flamingo Sanctuary, mangrove swamps spread over flamingos
inhabit. The impact on flamingos and the surrounding ecosystems will beminimized by setting the railroad track to 30 m of an undersea tunnel
section underground. The additionally formulated management plan for
the above three districts will be followed to minimize the impacts.
Furthermore, logging of about 101 ha of forest land and about 28 ha ofmangrove forest will be performed in association with the development of
the railyard and the railroad track, etc. With respect to felling forests,
alternative tree planting is performed by Forest Department in each state.
(vi)Social Environment
The Project involves the land acquisition of about 1,396 ha and relocationof 4,450 households, and they will be proceeded according to theResettlement Action Plan based on the domestic laws in India and JICA
guidelines. Affected citizens were given an explanation of the project
outline, environmental and social consideration policy, compensation
policy, etc. through census survey based on individual visits andresidents’ consultations. According to the minutes of the residents’consultations, no dissenting voice on the Project has been confirmed inparticular. In addition, an indigenous peoples’ plan was created fordesignated tribes residing in target areas, in accordance with thedomestic laws in India and JICA guidelines as well as the results ofresidents’ consultations, and then the agreements on the implementationof this Project with those tribes have been confirmed.

(vii)Other/Monitoring
During the construction, contractors and monitoring consultants will
monitor the air quality, water quality, noise, vibration, waste, vegetation,
ecosystem, etc. under the supervision of the NHSRCL, and after thecommencement of the service, NHSRCL will monitor the noise, vibration,vegetation, ecosystem, etc. Also, the NHSRCL will conduct monitoring ofresident relocation, land acquisition, and livelihood recovery support
measures. NHSRCL reports each of these results to JICA.
2) Cross-cutting Issues:(i) Climate Change: The Project aims at a modal shift from automobiles,buses, etc. and contributes to the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions. The mitigation effect of the Project on climate change (roughestimate of GHG emission reduction) is about 667,284 tons/year of CO2equivalent.
(ii) Consideration for Disabilities: In accordance with the domestic law ofIndia, the design of stations and Rolling Stock takes disabled persons intoconsideration (i.e. Elevators, escalators, toilet, station announcements,
textured paving blocks to guide the blind, wheelchair spaces).
(iii) Prevention Measures of Infectious Diseases: NHSRCL has incorporated
provisions requesting contractors to participate in HIV/AIDS prevention
activities in contracts. In addition, as a part of its efforts to prevent the spreadof COVID-19 infection, the executing agency has agreed to implement a listof measures (36 in total) during the formulation and implementation of theProject, and clarified the required activities, such as the development work
environments (including preparing epidemic prevention equipment andpromoting the code of conduct), supervision with respect to epidemic
prevention, and awareness-raising campaigns. The executing agency is
supposed to make quarterly reports with respect to the implementation
statuses of the measures so as to ensure that the impact of COVID-19 is
being carefully watched and the executing agency flexibly and appropriately
implement the measures throughout the project implementation period.
3) Gender Category: GI(S) (Gender Activity Integration Project)<Description of activities and reason for classification>
In the Project, measures will be taken such as the installation of CCTV
cameras in station buildings, toilet for women and breast feeding room instation building and rolling stock so that women can use the High Speed Railsafely and comfortably. Therefore, it is categorized as a Gender Activity
Integration Project.
(9) Other Important Issues
It is expected that Japanese technologies will be used for Core system packages
such as Rolling Stock, Electrical Equipment, Inspection/Maintenance Car andDepot in the Project.

4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicator)

Indicator
1. Number of Operations(number/day)
2. Passenger Transportation Volume(million passengers-km/day)
3. Travel Distance(thousand km/day)

4. Transportation Time (minutes)

5. Operating rate (%)
(2)

(3)

Baseline(Actual value in2018)

Target[2 years after thecommencement ofcommercial operation]

－70

－

18.04

－

354.0

－
(Approximately 385
minutes whenusing aconventional line
express train)
－127

87.5

Qualitative Effects
To improve the efficiency of the transportation network for inter-city travel by
providing high frequency mass passenger transport between Mumbai andAhmedabad, and to promote broader economic development in the target area.
Internal Rate of Return
Based on the following premise, the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) is
about 8.1% and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is about 5.9%.
[EIRR]
Cost: Project, operation and maintenance expenses (excluding tax)
Benefits: Fuel saving effect, vehicle operation cost reduction effect, travel time
reduction effect, air pollution mitigation effect, accident cost reduction effect, etc.
Project Life: 50 years[FIRR]
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance expenses
Benefits: Fare and non-fare incomes (including advertisement revenue andstation development revenue)
Project Life: 50 years

5. Prerequisites / External Factors(1) Prerequisites
None in particular(2) External Factors
Aggravation of political and economic situations in India and the surrounding areaof the project target, as well as natural disasters

6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
In similar projects in the Indian railway sector, there have been cases where third-party
organizations not stipulated in the contract were involved in the design and approval
process, which caused delays in decisions by the executing agency leading to further
delays in the projects. In these projects, the contractors and consultants indicated that
the Indian side set unrealistic targets for the opening of the entire line, and as a result,only construction sections that had been completed by that time were partially opened.
In this Project, when problems arise that cannot be resolved between the contracting
parties, including the above-mentioned cases, the joint committee meeting under theco-chairmen representing the governments of Japan and India, which serves as thehighest decision-making body of the Project, technical expert committee which discussvarious issues of the Project from technical aspects and steering committee where
Consultant and Contractor would discuss the progress of work will be held to resolve
problems.
7. Evaluation ResultThe Project will connect Mumbai, the capital of Maharashtra, the second largest city inIndia, and Ahmedabad (final station: Sabarmati) in Gujarat, the fifth largest city inIndia and a rapidly growing commercial and industrial center in recent years, in about
two hours, one-third the time it takes using conventional express trains. The Projectwill contribute to the improvement of passenger transportation capacity and therealization of safe transportation services by developing automatic train control andcommunication systems and introducing Rolling Stock for High Speed Rail on Japan'sShinkansen system. This Project is in line with India's development challenges andpolicies, as well as the cooperation policy and analysis of Japan and JICA. And there
is a strong need to support the implementation of the Project as it is considered tocontribute to SDGs Goal 8 "Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic
growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all"; Goal 9 "Build resilient
infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster
innovation"; Goal 11 "Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient andsustainable" and Goal 13 " Take urgent action to combat climate change and its
impacts".
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be used
As indicated in Section 4.
(2) Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: Two years after the commencement of commercial operation
END.