Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department, JICA
1. Basic Information
Country: India
Project Name: Project for Construction of Mumbai – Ahmedabad High Speed Rail (I)Loan Agreement：September 28, 2018
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Railway Sector in India
The population in India was 844 million in 1991 whereas it reached 1,002.9
million in 2001, exceeded 1,210 million in 2011, and it is anticipated to increase
continuously (Source: National Census in India in 2011). Adding to thispopulation increase, domestic passengers and freight transport volume havebeen increasing sharply along with recent rapid economic growth at a rate ofmore than 7% per annum. Moreover, the passenger transportation volume in2016 reached about 1.7 times that of 2000 and the freight transport volume hasreached about 2.3 times (Source: Ministry of Railways (MoR) of India “IndianRailways Year Book 2015-2016”). In addition to the fact that current railway
capacity has been only about 50% of the expected demand for passenger/freighttransport on the national average of 2032, the frequent occurrence of train delaysis also an obstacle to the smooth movement of people. Today, it has a structure inwhich about 85% of the means of transport connecting Mumbai, the capital city of
Maharashtra State and the second largest city in the country, and Ahmedabad in
Gujarat State, which is rapidly developing as a commercial and industrial city inrecent years, consists of private vehicles and buses. These two states are
growing with momentum that exceeds the overall economic growth rate of India,
and it is predicted that they will continue to have stable growth beyond the next 30years (Source: National Planning Commission in India). On the other hand, inIndia, households with higher incomes tend to rely on means that enables travelin a shorter time over longer distances, such as airplanes. However, since theonly the aviation sector alone cannot catch up with the increase in thetransportation demand, high-speed rail with both mass and high-frequency
transportability is expected to play a major role. According to the demand
forecast survey regarding the Project for Construction of Mumbai-Ahmedabad
High Speed Rail (hereinafter referred to as “the Project”) conducted under the“Joint Feasibility Study for Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Railway Corridor,” itis estimated that the passenger demand at Ahmedabad Station and Mumbai
Station at the time of opening (in 2023) will be about 21,000 people/day andabout 30,000 people/day respectively, and these numbers are expected toincrease about 5 times more than these figures in 2053.
In December 2009, the Ministry of Railways (MoR) of India formulated“Indian Railways: Vision 2020” and set forth the development of the priority train
tracks on high-speed rail including the Mumbai-Ahmedabad section, in addition
to modernization of conventional lines and enhancement of transport capacity. InJapan-India Joint Statement in December 2015, the two governments agreed
that the Mumbai-Ahmedabad section shall be developed with the implementationof Japanese high speed rail technologies and experience. Then, in this regard,
detailed consultations shall be held so that financial and technical assistance will

be provided by Japan.
The Project is positioned as a priority project within the railway sector ofIndia, and it aims to realize efficient passenger transport by enhancing thepassenger transport capacity through construction of train tracks, development ofa signal/communication system, and the introduction of high-speed rail cars.
(2) Japan’s and JICA’s Cooperation Policies for the Railway Sector and the Priority ofthis ProjectJapan’s Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) states that
infrastructures, such as transportation and power, which are the hub of thetransportation and network, shall be developed in order to reinforce theconnectivity within and among the major industrial cities/economic zones in India,
with the aim of resolving the infrastructure bottleneck against investment andgrowth. In addition, in order to eliminate the bottleneck in economic growth, JICA
Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018) provides that particularly in theindustrial agglomeration areas such as special economic zones and economic
corridors located in the six major metropolitan areas in India as well as in theDelhi–Mumbai Industrial Corridor that are expected to receive big impacts by the
support of JICA, it is necessary to provide support for regional economic
development facilitation, logistics optimization, and infrastructure development
including arterial railroad (including high-speed rail and cargo transport), urban
railway, roads, and harbors, which contribute to increased investment fromforeign capital. Accordingly, this project is consistent with these policies andanalysis. When the first phase of E/N related to the Project (100,000 million yen)
was concluded in September 2017, an ODA loan was concurrently granted to theProject for the Construction of Training Institute for Mumbai-Ahmedabad
High-speed Rail for training personnel required for opening the high-speed rail. Inaddition, the plan/basic design of the Project is formulated under the “JointFeasibility Study for Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Railway Corridor.”(3) Other Donors’ Activity
The World Bank supports the development of roads and suburban railways inMumbai (JICA is involved in urban railways) and the development of the EastCorridor (JICA is involved in the West Corridor) under the Dedicated Freight
Corridor Project. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is providing institutionaland other assistance to India’s railway sector, especially for organizational
reforms of Indian Railways. Both of them provide mutually complementary
support with JICA.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The Project aims to establish a high-frequency mass passenger transport systemby utilizing the Japanese bullet train system and constructing high-speed rail in
about 500 km of a section between Mumbai in Maharashtra State andAhmedabad in Gujarat State, thereby contributing to the reduction of trafficpollution, reinforced connectivity, and wide economic development of the targetareas.
(2) Project Site/Target Area
Gujarat State, Maharashtra State, Dadra and Nagar Haveli(3) Project Componentsa) Civil Engineering/Construction Work [Mumbai Station, Undersea tunnel,

General civil engineering sites (viaducts, stations, etc.), Bridges]b) Civil Engineering/Construction Work (vicinity of Vadodara Station, vicinity ofAhmedabad Station and Sabarmati Station) [CM/GC (ConstructionManager/General Contractor) system]c) Railroad Track Constructiond) Electrical/Mechanical Worke) Depotf) Rolling Stocks/Track Inspection Vehiclesg) Track Maintenance Equipmenth) Consulting Services (construction supervision, quality control, safetymanagement, technology transfer to improve executing agency’s capacity tosupervise construction, etc.)(4) Estimated Project Cost
1,806,282 million yen (Feasibility Study basis. Total project cost and the amountof ODA Loan will be determined through detailed designs, etc. which will be
conducted in the future.)(5) Schedule
September 2018 – December 2025 (88 months in total, based on the premise of
the completion date confirmed by the intergovernmental consultations between
Japan and India by the present moment). This project will be completed when all
the facilities are put into service (December 2023).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing Agency: National High Speed Rail Corporation Limited(hereinafter referred to as “NHSRCL”)
4) Operation/Maintenance Agency: NHSRCL will conduct the maintenance andmanagement of the facilities and the human resource development training
after the completion of the Project. For this reason, with the consideration ofoperation and maintenance after the completion, construction supervisionconsultants with abundant knowledge of the construction/operation andmaintenance of the bullet train in Japan are hired through an ODA loan at thefund procurement/construction stages, and technology transfer to theNHSRCL staff is performed. Moreover, another training program by granting
an ODA loan and utilizing training facilities under construction is planned tobe conducted, and experts are to be dispatched from Japan to provide
support for implementation of the training. In addition, in order to safely andpromptly implement the Project which is also specified in the national plan, asufficient budget for operation and maintenance expenses will be allocatedfrom the central government ministries.
(7) Collaboration and Division of Roles with Other Projects and Donors
1) Japan’s Assistance Activities
In association with the Project, the following paid account technicalassistance has been implemented.

Name of JICA Project
Joint Feasibility Study for
Mumbai-Ahmedabad High
Speed Railway Corridor(hereinafter referred to as“F/S Survey”)
The Follow-up Study for
Mumbai-Ahmedabad High
Speed Railway Corridor

PeriodDecember
2013 – June2015

Relationship with the Project● Preparatory Survey of the Project(F/S Survey)

March 2016 –February
2018

The Detailed Design
Study of the Mumbai Ahmedabad High Speed
Railway ProjectDecember
2016 – March2020

Capacity development
support pertaining toHigh-speed RailConstruction Project[Technical Assistance
Related to ODA Loan]
Organizational
Reinforcement Advisors
for NHSRCL

August 2017 –March 2019

● Support for the institutionalization ofa legal system, technical standards,
security assurance, and thedevelopment of stations/aroundstations● Promoting understanding of ahigh-speed rail project throughtraining in Japan for NHSRCL
executives● Detailed design study of the Project(D/D)● Basic design, detailed design,
creation of tender documents andbidding support regarding theProject well as a high-speed rail
training facility project● Developing various regulations
related to construction/ operation/
maintenance of the high-speed rail
project and drafting a training planfor training lecturers
Technical assistance by Japan
Railway Company to an executing
agency by making good use ofexperiences as a bullet train operatorin Japan

June 2018 –May 2020

Support through advice on developing
the organizational capacity ofNHSRCL by dispatching Japaneseexperts

CM/GC Pre-construction
ServiceMay 2018 –May 2020

Along with the adoption ofConstruction Manager/ General
Contractor (CM/GC) system, by
obtaining the participation ofcontractors at the designing stage, itaims to improve the quality of theconstruction design plan createdbased on the Detailed Design Studyand to minimize the revision of theplan at the construction
implementation stage.

Ministry ofRailways/NHSRCL
officials training

Fiscal 2018 –Fiscal 2019

To conduct training in Japan to acquire
knowledge such as policies,technologies, and systems of railway
business focusing on bullet trains inJapan.

2) Other Development Partners’ Assistance Activities:
None in particular(8) Environmental and Social Consideration/ Poverty Reduction/Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Consideration(i) Category: A(ii) Reason for Categorization:
The Project falls into the railway sector and the influential characteristics,
both being listed in the “JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social
Considerations” (proclaimed in April 2010).
(iii)Environmental Permit
Although preparation of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)
Report is not required under the domestic law in India, it was prepared by
the NHSRCL in July 2015, and an updated version reflecting thesubsequent change in the project plan, etc. was prepared in August
2018.
(iv)Anti-Pollution Measures
During construction, air pollution and water pollution concomitant withdrilling and construction machine operation are handled by watering, theuse of dustproof sheets, wastewater treatment plants, etc. Regarding thewaste, excavated soil generated by the tunnel construction is reused in
the section for the embankment, etc., and the rest of the soil is properly
disposed of at designated disposal sites. In the section of tunnel
construction, the ground is solid and implementation of appropriate
construction methods is planned to prevent loose ground and the inflowof groundwater; therefore, a serious impact due to ground subsidence is
not expected. Regarding noise and vibration concomitant with theblasting work, operation time will be limited to minimize the impact onneighborhoods. With respect to noise, vibration, etc. due to running cars
when in operation, countermeasures such as the installation ofsoundproof walls are taken to minimize the impact. Regarding the noise/
vibration of the tunnel portion and the elevated portion, it is aimed to be
reduced by the maintenance of the railroad track on a regular basis andcompliance with the speed limit.
(v) Natural Environment
The target area of the Project extends through the core zone and thebuffer zone of Thane Creek Flamingo Sanctuary, the buffer zone ofSanjay Gandhi National Park, and the buffer zone of Tungareshwar
Wildlife Sanctuary. Disbursement is planned to be made after acquiring
clearance on the development in that area. Around the Thane Creek
Flamingo Sanctuary, mangrove swamps spread over flamingos inhabit.
The impact on flamingos and the surrounding ecosystems will beminimized by setting the railroad track to 30 m of an undersea tunnel
section underground. The management plan for the above three districts
will be complied with minimizing the impacts. Furthermore, logging of

about 58 ha of forest land and about 19 ha of mangrove forest will beperformed in association with the development of the railyard and therailroad track, etc. With respect to felling forests, alternative tree planting
is performed by Forest Department in each state.
(vi)Social Environment
The Project involves the land acquisition of 1,022.37 ha and relocation of
1,887 households, and they will be proceeded according to theResettlement Action Plan based on the domestic laws in India and JICA
guidelines. Affected citizens were given an explanation of the project
outline, environmental and social consideration policy, compensation
policy, etc. through census survey based on individual visits andresidents’ consultations. According to the minutes of the residents’consultations, no dissenting voice on the project has been confirmed inparticular. In addition, an indigenous peoples’ plan was created fordesignated tribes residing in target areas, in accordance with thedomestic laws in India and JICA guidelines as well as the results ofresidents’ consultations, and then the agreements on the implementationof this project with those tribes have been confirmed.
(vii)Other/Monitoring
During the construction, contractors will monitor the air quality, waterquality, noise, vibration, waste, vegetation, ecosystem, etc. under thesupervision of the NHSRCL, and after the commencement of the service,
NHSRCL will monitor the noise, vibration, vegetation, ecosystem, etc.
Also, the NHSRCL will conduct monitoring of resident relocation, landacquisition, and livelihood recovery support measures.
2) Cross-cutting Issues:
The Project aims at a modal shift from automobiles, buses, etc. andcontributes to the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The
mitigation effect of the Project on climate change (rough estimate of GHG
emission reduction) is about 670,000 tons/year of CO2 equivalent. Sincemany workers engaged in the Project are assumed to live without theirfamilies, it is considered that the risk of HIV infection is high; therefore, a planfor HIV prevention activities shall be formulated so that the contractors will beobliged to take measures according to the plan.
3) Gender Category: [Gender Project] GI(S) (Gender Activity Integration
Project)<Description of activities and reason for classification>
In the Project, measures will be taken such as the installation of CCTV
cameras in station buildings so that women can use the high-speed rail safely
and comfortably. Therefore, it is categorized as a Gender Activity Integration
Project.
(9) Other Important Issues
In the Project, the government of Japan and the government of India have agreed
that the tied loan will be made for the fund procurement condition in order toutilize the technology and knowledge of Japan for the development.
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicator)

Indicator

Baseline (Actualvalue in 2018)

Target (2025)[Expected value2 years after the start of
the high-speed rail
operation]

－70－

18.04

－

354.0

1. Number of Operations(number/day)
2. Passenger Transportation
Volume (millionpassengers-km/day)
3. Travel Distance (thousandkm/day)
4. Transportation Time (minutes)
5. Operating rate (%)－(Approximately 420
minutes when using a
conventional line
express train)
－127
87.5

(2)

Qualitative Effects
Improvement in traffic conditions between Mumbai and Ahmedabad, reduction of
traffic pollution, mitigation of climate change, improvement in convenience byensuring scheduled movement, and economic development of the region.
(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the following premise, the economic internal rate of return is about
11.8% and the financial internal rate of return is about 4.0%, both calculated
according to the Feasibility Study.
[EIRR]
Cost: Project, operation and maintenance expenses (excluding tax)
Benefits: Fuel saving effect, vehicle operation cost reduction effect, travel time
reduction effect, air pollution mitigation effect, accident cost reduction effect, etc.
Project Life: 30 years[FIRR]
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance expenses
Benefits: Fare and non-fare incomes (including advertisement revenue)
Project Life: 30 years

5. Prerequisites / External Factors(1) Prerequisites
None in particular(2) External Factors
Aggravation of political and economic situations in India and the surrounding areaof the project target, as well as natural disasters
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
During implementation of other projects in the railway sector in India, it wasobserved that agencies other than the executing agency were involved in thedesigning and approving processes, which is not stipulated in the contract provisions,subsequently leading to prolonged decision by the executing agency and resulting indelays in the project. In addition, in this project, objectives such as “partialcommencement of the business operation,” which are not set forth in the contract
document, are set by the executing agency, and contractors and consultants pointed
out the problem that realistic supervision of the construction process in accordancewith the actual situation was not being performed. In the Project, in case of a problem
that leads to such a delay in the project as well as a problem that cannot be resolved
among contract parties, the steering committee that is established as a place forintergovernmental consultations between Japan and India is utilized. The committee ispositioned as a place to solve problems at the preliminary step prior to the DisputeBoard (Dispute Adjudication Board) and arbitration, and the basic policy for its
establishment was agreed upon by Japanese and Indian government officials at the5th Japan-India Joint Committee held in June 2017.
7. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to Be Used
Same as 4. (1) - (3)(2) Timing of the Next Evaluation
Ex-post evaluation: After the start of the high-speed rail operation (from 2023
onwards)
END.