Environmental Prediction Science Lab.
- Our Goal and Direction

Shunji Kotsuki(shunji.kotsuki@chiba-u.jp)
many thanks to Muto-san and Shiojiri-kun for arrangements

2023/04/06 the 2nd Laboratory ConferenceToday’s Talk
Our Mission & Strategy
Our Circumstance & Direction

Our Actions

Our Mission & Strategy

Why Mission?
We have grown up, and reached to dynamic equilibrium.
2020.072021.032022.032023.03

FY2022
To maximize our outcomes, we need to share
our mission.
a group w/o mission
a team w/ mission

Strategy: Product Market Fit

Competition (競争力)Market Fit(市場適合)

how we are different

Product (生産)
what we can create

Market Opportunity(チャンス)

Demand (需要)what the world requires

Market Relevance (市場の存在)Why Environ. Prediction?
Things you want to do even if you pay
お金を払ってでもやりたいことCompetition  Passion(競争力  情熱)

Exploratory challenge, Collaborations

Environmental Prediction ScienceProduct  Talent(生産  才能)

Simulations, Data Science
Earth & Satellite Studies
Things we can do easier than others
人より楽にできること

Demand(需要)Earth Environmental& Disaster Preventions
Our values that can improve society
社会を良くできる存在価値Mission Statement
Our Purpose: What roles do we play?
理念:
我々は何者か?何のために存在するか?
・Science: to deepen data and earth science to create global environmental predictions.
・Education: to encourage “active” members who will lead society in the next era.
・Society: to realize social implementations for disaster preventions w/ collaborators.
・科学: データサイエンスを活かし、我々だから可能な地球環境予測技術を創造する。
・教育: メンバーの成⾧を通して、日本・世界で活躍する能動的な人材を育成する。
・社会: 官公庁・研究所・企業と協働し、防災に関わる具体的な社会実装を実現する。

Our Positioning: How are we differentiated?
戦略:
我々はどう差別化されるか?
・Strengthen data science and methodologies to solve geoscience problems.
・Issue-driven. to solve unique & interesting problems rather than just improvements.
・To respect the number of challenges/trials, rather than prioritizing the success rate.
・データ同化や機械学習等のデータ科学・方法論を深め、地球科学の問題を解決する。
・Issue-driven。問題を“良く”解くのではなく、ユニークな“良い”問題を設定して挑戦。
・PMFを意識し、失敗を恐れず挑戦する。成功率の高さでなく、挑戦の数で勝負する。

Mission Statement (cont’d)
Our Ambition: How far will we go?
目指すべき姿: 我々の成し遂げるべきは何か?
・Becoming a global environment and data science research hub in Japan.
・Becoming a leading group in the field of Earth sciencein the publication and realization of social implementation.
・国内における地球環境・データサイエンス研究の知見が集まる拠点となる。
・地球科学分野において、論文発表・社会実装実現のトップグループを目指す。

Our Values: What are our standards?
価値観: 我々は何を尊重するか?
・Strengthening our competence while challenging ourselves in new areas (80:20).
・Respecting other members & achieving outcomes that cannot be accomplished alone.
・Providing chances with allowance of failure for researchers and students.
・我々のコンピタンスの強化と、新しい分野への挑戦を両立する (80:20)。
・他のメンバーや共同研究者を尊重し、一人では成し遂げられない研究成果を挙げる。
・学生含め、責任感のあるメンバーに失敗しても良いからチャンス・環境を提供する。

Our Circumstance& Directions

Members in FY2023‣ Professors (1 + ?)‣ Kotsuki‣ Researchers/URA (6)‣ Mao, Shiojiri, Muto, Zou, Pascal, Ohashi‣ Master 2nd Students (5)‣ Saito, Seki, Fujimura, Sasaki, Kawasaki‣ Master 1st Students (2)‣ Shimabukuro, Ketsuka‣ Bachler Students (2)‣ Nakano, Shiraishi‣ Admin Staffs (4)‣ Nakamura, Miyamoto, Okamoto, Nojicurrently
in review(1) Research Projects
Projects

MoonshotFlood Prediction
Land(JAXA, Satreps)
CHEZ WF
Seasonal FCSTs
SSP (JMA, JR)
SCALE FCSTs
Chiba Kujyukuri

Researcher

as ofApr. 2023

StudentsStaffs

(2) Achievements

as of 2023/04/05

it was beneficial to havethis feasible stepfor students

we would like to increase‣ FY2022‣ target: 10 submissions‣ results: 7 submissions ( 5 publications)‣ Kotsuki x2, Mao x2, Hu, Momoi, Oishi‣ & four awards (Fujimura, Shiojiri, Oishi, Saito)‣ FY2023‣ target: 10 submissions & 10 publications
maybe possible
relatively hard
‣ as of Apr. 2023
‣ in review: Oishi (SOLA), Mao (NPG)‣ in prep.: Muto (SOLA), Mao (GRL)Why Publications?
(1) to grow up through research (2) necessary to be stable group
your research when B4Researchers, Staffs
Instruments

theme

review planexperiments

write

your research after writing

Get funded

theme

reviewplanexperiments

write

how I think now
theme

surveyDo research

Publication

review plan experiments write

experience on writing will change your eyes
how you see the world

w/o publications,
your outcomes just evaporate

Theme of 4th Year
4th Year: Deepening深める
3rd Year: Start Integrating
融合の開始
2nd Year: Standardization
幹・文化の形成
1st Year: Foundation
土台固めOur Actions for“Deepening”

Meetings

Presentation: a conference-like presentation
mtg/discussion: you can skip introduction‣ (1) Entire Mtg. and Presentation (Eng.) @810
‣ every two weeks‣ administrative announcements & two presentations‣ (2) Students Mtg (Eng/Jpn) @806
‣ every two weeks‣ w/ advisor & Kotsuki‣ (3) Researchers Mtg (Eng/Jpn)@ 806‣ every two weeks, 1-by-1‣ (4) Research discussion (Eng)@ 801‣ every month, organized by Muto-san

One last thing I believe pretty beneficial is “research review / lecture” for surveying/studying.
It won’t be mandatory for everyone. If you are interested in, let’s discuss.

Students’ MTG
GroupShiraishi-kun will join
after determining theme

StudentsTech
Staff

Advisor

Weather

Saito

Fujimura

Shiojiri

KawasakiNakanoMao

Sasaki

Ketsuka

Muto

Seki

Shimabukuro

DAEnvironment

Disaster Risk

Okamoto Nakamura

Shiojiri

Actions: Kotsuki‣ To make myself bored and spend more timeon scientific activities and educations‣ How to produce time?

‣ to decline unnecessary projects/meetings‣ I did my best

‣ to share information among members‣ to reduce unnecessary works‣ to make empowerment‣ (1) Nakamura-san will handle the budget‣ (2) ???

Actions: Researchers
deepen your research‣ to cycle hypothetical deduction (仮説演繹)‣ to predict results prior to experiments‣ to handwrite a manuscript prior to planning research‣ better presentations for better feedbacks‣ How to make presentations better?

‣ (0) imagine audience, and consider take home message‣ (1) organize logically, and 3Cs (Clear, Correct, Concise)‣ (2) presenting not only results, but implications and hypothesis‣ in general‣ we should know telling “what we think” to other people is difficult‣ we should steal from others, and improve w/ try and errors‣ it is good to ask questions, and provide feedbacks to each otherthen, what we will do?
‣ to advance projects forward, and publication

Actions: Master/Bachler
deepen your research

精神論

・観測と同化。「自分の研究」だけでなく「議論・論文・学会」機会を使う
自分では解決できない問題を解決する。「自分の視野狭窄」を知る。

・質の前に量。基本的には、質を上げるには、研究の量が必要条件
何事もそうだが、打ち込まないと、本当の楽しさは分からない

・学費の回収。先生ができる一番の教育は、一緒に英語論文を書くOJT
Subjective  Objective. 論文を書く=ロジカルプレゼンテーション

go up to stairs steadily

Actions

Step 2
Step 1
国内学会発表日本語の論文(第一著者として)

・土木学会
水工学論文集・データサイエンス
シンポジウム

Step 3
国際学会発表Step 4

英語の論文(第一著者として)・AGU; American Geophysical Union
12月, 投稿8月
・AOGS; Asia Oceania Geosciences Society
8月, 投稿2月・EGU; Asia Oceania Geosciences Society
4月, 投稿1月

Messages to Staffs
7つの習慣より:第Ⅱ領域を意識しよう
こうなりたい!

仕事の見える化・情報共有

やらないことを決める• なぜ必要なのか• 落とし穴を防ぐ• 人を頼ったら済むことも多い• Admin スタッフMTGの開催• 2週間に1回の目安• 不要な仕組み・ルールだと思ったら、Adminスタッフで相談して、ぜひ意見を挙げてくださいOur Life is Data Assimilation
Hypothesis（Forward Deduction）

Prediction

Cycling PDCA is theessence of growth

DANow

Results

Adjustment of our hypothesis（Backward Induction）
tt+1

t+2timeSummaryToday’s Talk
Our Mission: Why environmental prediction?
Our Direction: “Deepening”

Our Actions: to cycle “your” DA cycle

Appendix

A World Beyond Predictions
Growth, Breakthrough,Attractor, Satellite, Prediction

Real and Virtual Earth
Computation, Model, DNN

1. Create new science/knowledge beyond “predictions of the world”(世界の想像を超える技術・知識を創造する)
2. Grow up beyond “our own predictions” through collaborations(協働で自身の想像を超える = 俺/私はこんなことできたのかぁ)
many thanks to Iizuka-san世界一を目指す分野
お金払ってもやりたいこと好きなこと (情熱)

萌芽研究・頭を使う研究
共同研究者との協働

環境予測科学研究
得意なこと (才能)
数値計算・機械学習
データ科学・衛星科学

人より楽にできること

役立つこと (価値)
気象災害予測地球環境・防災研究

社会を良くできる存在価値