Influence of space weather and seismic activity
on the formation of thunderclouds in
Kamchatka in winterSergey Smirnov
Institute of Cosmophysical Research and Radio Wave Propagation of the Far
Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of ScienceTropical cyclones bring warm and humid air to the peninsula, causing prolonged heavy rainfallin summer and snowstorms in winter.
Despite the high cyclonic activity, the average number of thunderstorm days per year inKamchatka, according to the data (yandex.ru/pogoda/paratunka/month), is 10.8. According toarchival data, from 1937 to 1982 (45 years), only 22 thunderstorms were recorded in
Petropavlovsk [Kondratyuk, 1983].
For the formation of thunderclouds, in addition to cyclones, the action of other sources ofadditional heat energy entering the surface atmosphere is also possible.
With strong solar flares, a heat flux occurs in the visible and infrared ranges [Veselovsky et al.,
2004; Ermolaev et al., 2005], sufficient to create conditions for the formation of thunderstormactivity.
An additional source of heat in the infrared range can be seismic processes in the earth's crustbefore powerful earthquakes [Gorny et al., 1988]. One of the mechanisms of the formation of athermal anomaly before an earthquake is presented in the model [Pulinets S., Ouzounov D.,
Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model - an unified concept forearthquake precursors validation, Journal of Asian Earth Sciences, 41, 371-382 , 2011]2

An example of a heat anomaly before an earthquake
Earthquake on November 15, 2006:
t = 11:14 UT;
M = 8.3;
h = 30.3 km;
ϕ = 46.614° N; λ = 153.23° E(R = 100.43M = 3707 km; r ~ 800 km,
where R is the radius of a seismically active zone in the earth's crust on theeve of EQ [Dobrovolsky et al., 1979]; r is the distance from the observatory
to the epicenter of the EQ).

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Average daily temperature

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November 2006

days

Earthquake November 15, 2006
Air temperature variations (1), temperature variations estimated from satellite data (2), average
daily temperatures in November, averaged over 2009–2016. (3).

5November 2004 events
The peculiarity of these events is that they developed against thebackground of powerful solar flares, accompanied by two magnetic storms.
This led to the initiation of abnormally strong thunderstorm processes in thesurface atmosphere in Kamchatka.
During this period, cyclonic activity in the Pacific Ocean was calm; typhoon
MUIFA emerged only on November 14 in a very remote place fromKamchatka.
Seismic activity during this period was also relatively calm.

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Typhoon MUIFA track in November 2004

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Daily variations in the Ez
components of a quasi-static
electric field in the surface
atmosphere of Kamchatka,
meteorological quantities,and fluxes of solar X-rayradiation (in the range 0.1–0.8 nm) in November 20049October 2003 events
Events developed under conditions of increased solar activity on October
21-31, when X-ray fluxes during flares reached anomalous values ​of theorder of 10-3 W/m2. In this case, the radiation fluxes also increased in thevisible part of the spectrum.
On these days, the maximum intensity of typhoon PARMA was noted, whenthe minimum pressure in its “eye” was 930 hPa, and the maximum speed
was 95 knots / h. This powerful typhoon originated on October 21 at ~ 2035º N and for 10 days moved along latitude from 1400 to 1800 E. At thesame time, in the same period on October 19-26, a less powerful one
operated in the Pacific Ocean (V = 90 knots / h; P = 940 hPa) typhoon
KETSANA.
Seismic activity during this period was also relatively calm (M ~ 5).
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Tracks of typhoons PARMA and KETSANA in October 2003.

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Daily variations in the Ez
components of a quasi-static
electric field in the surface
atmosphere of Kamchatka,
meteorological quantities,and fluxes of solar X-ray
radiation (in the range 0.1–0.8 nm) in October 2003.

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Events in November 2006
These events are associated with the strong Kuril earthquakes, themagnitude of which exceeded M ~ 8.
Solar activity during these periods remained relatively quiet, the X-ray fluxes
were on the order of 10-6 W/m2
Cyclonic activity was also very low: Typhoon CHEBI originated at latitudes
below 200 N and shifted for four days (November 9-13) in the longitude
range 115-135º E with a maximum wind speed of ~ 100 knots / h.

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Typhoon CHEBI track in November 2006

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Daily variations in the Ez
components of a quasi-static
electric field in the surface
atmosphere of Kamchatka,
meteorological quantities,
and fluxes of solar X-ray
radiation (in the range 0.1–0.8 nm) in November 2004.

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Main results
Despite the active cyclonic activity in the autumn-winter period, very few thunderstorms areobserved in Kamchatka. When studying the occurrence of winter thunderstorms, one
should take into account additional factors of the influx of thermal energy during theformation of thunderstorm clouds.
In the events of November 2004, such a factor was the increased solar activity.
In October 2003, the action of a powerful tropical cyclone was superimposed on theincreased solar activity.
In November 2006, a powerful seismic event with M> 8 could have been an additional
inflow of heat into cyclonic activity.

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Main results
In December 2014, in the absence of tropical cyclones on December 19 and 20, against thebackground of relatively weak solar activity, solar flares with an X-ray flux of ~10 -4 W/m2
occurred, which can be considered as a source of additional heat flux in the surface
atmosphere.
In cases:
December 2008,
November 2012,January 2018,november 2018
under conditions of weak solar activity and the absence of tropical cyclones, a swarm ofmoderate earthquakes (up to 15) near the eastern border of the peninsula should
apparently be considered as sources of additional heat flux in the surface atmosphere.
In the other cases of winter thunderstorms considered in the work, there were indeed
tropical cyclones with an intensity of 18 to 59 m/s.
19Conclusions
For the formation of thunderclouds in Kamchatka, heat sources can act:
Primary:
Additional:

tropical cyclones
solar activity
seismic activity

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References
G.A. Mikhailova, O.V. Kapustina, Yu.M. Mikhailov, S.E. Smirnov Features of the Atmospheric
Temperature Variations Prior to Strong Earthquakes in Kamchatka and Their Relation to the Fluxes ofOutgoing Infrared Radiation // Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2018, Vol. 58, No. 4, pp. 548–553, doi:
10.1134/S0016793218040096
S.E. Smirnov, Yu.M. Mikhailov, G.A. Mikhailova, O.V. Kapustina Features of Winter Thunderstorms inKamchatka // Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2019, Vol. 59, No. 6, pp. 696–703, doi:
10.1134/S0016793219060112
Yu.M. Mikhailov, S.E. Smirnov, G.A. Mikhailova, O.V. Kapustina Tropical Cyclones and Possible WinterThunderstorms on Kamchatka // Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 2020, Vol. 60, No. 5, pp. 619–635, doi:
10.1134/S0016793220040118

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Thank you!

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