Strategic Annual Report 2019
The Middle East: Intensifying Competition for Hegemony over a New Regional Order

The Middle East: Intensifying Competition for Hegemony
over a New Regional Order

The Wailing Wall, Sep. 2017, the Old City of Jerusalem (Photo by Mari Nukii)

Since the “Arab Spring” there has been afulfill their responsibility to establish

continuing power vacuum in the Middle

an order for the entire region. What

East at three levels: national, regional

makes these crises even more serious isand international. At the national level,

the Middle East policy of US President

countries such as Syria, Yemen, Libya,

Donald Trump, who places top priority

and Iraq have fallen into a state of civil

on strengthening his domestic support

war due to their weak cohesivenessbase.

as nation-states and their inability to
govern, allowing other countries to

The Trump administration’s policy

intervene and armed non-state actors totoward the Middle East is characterized

run rampant. On the other hand, certain

by its efforts to improve relations withstates exempt from civil war havepro-US partners such as Saudi Arabia

become more authoritarian, neglectingand Israel, which had deteriorated

to solve the fundamental problems

during the Obama administration, andraised by the “Arab Spring.” A power

to form a “coalition to contain Iran”

vacuum has also occurred at the regionalwith these two countries as its pillars.

level as countries in the Middle East

The US administration believes thatprioritize their own interests rather thanits policy can stabilize the region.
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Strategic Annual Report 2019
The Middle East: Intensifying Competition for Hegemony over a New Regional Order

President Trump apparently wants tothe safety of navigation in the Persian

withdraw US troops from the Middle

Gulf, but only a few countries officially

East in the near future so that thesupported the idea. On the other hand,security of the region can be shoulderedIran, judging the possibility of a military

by pro-US countries. Having chosen

attack by the United States to be low,

the Middle East as his first overseas

has refused to hold talks with President

destination after taking office in May

Trump, and is showing signs of reducing

2017, he agreed to sell $110 billion

its obligations under the Iranian nuclear

in weapons to Saudi Arabia, andagreement

stopped by the Jewish holy site of thedevelopment on the grounds that it has

Wailing Wall in Jerusalem as the firstnot received any economic rewards.

andresuming

nuclearincumbent US president to visit Israel.
In December, the Trump administration

The prevailing view is that the Trump

formally recognized Jerusalem as theadministration’s policy of maximum

capital of Israel, pleasing its support

pressurebase of Christian evangelicals in theunsuccessful, not only because it has

United States and the Netanyahu

been unable to change Iran’s behavior

government in Israel.

(support for pro-Iran organizations,

toward

Iran

has

been

mainly Shiites in neighboring countries,

47

In May 2018, the Trump administrationand missile development), but also

withdrew from the Iranian nuclear

because it encourages hardliners in Iranagreement and, in May 2019, it imposed

who insist on nuclear development.

a total embargo on Iranian oil imports

Hence, it has not received sufficientand dispatched aircraft carriers andinternationalbombers to the Middle East. On June

Obama and Trump administrations

20, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards

share in common the perception of a

Corps shot down US drones over the

threat from Iran’s growing influence

Persian Gulf. A sequence of events,and an inclination toward withdrawal

including attacks on oil tankers andfrom the Middle East, they differ infacilities, pushed the United States andtactics (the Obama administration’s

Iran to the brink of war. The Unitedengagement policy and the Trump

States has called on other countries toadministration’s containment policy).

join a “Maritime Security Initiative”

Even if a US administration seeks to(a coalition of the willing) to ensure

withdraw from the Middle East, itsupport.

Whilethewill be unable to renounce its anti-Iranon information from Kurdish groups

policy in consideration of the strategic

and the Iraqi government, had theimportance of the Middle East, including

cooperation of Russia (which opened

energy supply and terrorism issues, as

its airspace to US forces), the Syrian

well as the “special relationship” withregime of President Bashar al-Assad,Israel. This contradiction has forced theand Turkey. The killing of Baghdadi

US administration to engage in conflictis thought to have a certain effect inin the Middle East.

containing domestic and international
criticism of the withdrawal of US troops

President

Trump’soffrom Syria, as well as in impressing thewithdrawing US troops from Syria andpublic with the “end of the fight against

tolerating Turkey’s cross-border attacks

the Islamic State”. However, there hason Kurds in Syria have confused thebeen no change in the US government’s

countries concerned in the region anddecision to abandon its involvement intheandwar-ravaged Syria, around 6 million ofbenefited the Assad regime and its allies

whose citizens are refugees, and to leave

Russia and Iran. Many in the United

its fate in the hands of Iran as well asStates oppose Trump’s decision, saying

Russia and Turkey.

international

policycommunity,

it would betray the Kurdish militia(YPG) that has cooperated with the US

On the other hand, Israel, wary ofmilitary in the war against the Islamic

Iran’s military consolidation and theState (IS) and allow IS to resurge.

expansion of logistical support routes

However, President Trump does notinto the Mediterranean, has repeatedly

seem interested in Syria, which does

launched attacks on suspected Iranian

not have much oil and which offers few

military bases in Syria. Should a major

opportunities for arms sales.

military conflict break out between
the two countries, the international

On October 27, President Trumpcommunity may have to face the worst

announced that US special operations

possible scenario of Israel remotelyforces

attacking the Iranian mainland andhad

killedIslamic

State

leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in theIrannorthwesternexchanges of ballistic missiles between

SyrianprovinceofIdlib. It has been reported that thisfightingback,resultinginthe two.

operation, which was carried out based48

Strategic Annual Report 2019
The Middle East: Intensifying Competition for Hegemony over a New Regional Order

Agricultural Industrial Park (JAIP),
tourism development projects, andimprovements to Palestinian refugee
camps. The Japanese government has
made efforts to enhance the Palestinian
Authority’s

governancefunctionsthrough grassroots assistance, such as
improving residents’ self-governance
Tehran’s Former U.S. Embassy, Feb. 2014.
(Photo by Mari Nukii)

capacityandmedium-sizedInJune2019,

President

small

enterprises.

andThese

Trumpprojects aim to cultivate regional

announced his “deal of the century”

cooperation, economic independence

aimed at resolving the Palestinianand mutual trust with neighboring

problem, but only in the economic

countries such as Israel and Jordan,arena. Although the ostensible intention

and with international donor bodies

was to promote relations between

and countries in Asia. This Japanese-

Israel and pro-US Arab countries,

style assistance system, which places

the political resolution of the Israeli-

importance on the participation of localPalestinian conflict was shelved and theresidents, has not been as flashy or high-fundamental principles of international

profile as the “deal of the century” but it

law as well as the opinions of thehas been highly praised for empowering

Palestiniancompletely

the weak. It would be advisable for theignored. As a result, many Palestinians

Japanese government to continue its

aredisappointed,

thinking

that

steady support by involving private

theinternational

communityhas

companies and individuals interested

abandoned a two-state solution. Since

in contributing to society alongside the1993, Japan has provided $1.9 billion incountries and organizations concerned

assistance to the Palestinian Authority

in order to prevent the radicalization

to support a two-state solution forof Palestinian youth who are desperate

thedue to their political and economicside

coexistence

wereandco-prosperityof Israel and the future independent
Palestinianstate.

These

projects

include the development of the Jericho

49

fosteringstagnation.

While the United States is attempting

an active and responsible role in theto scale back its involvement in thestabilization and establishment of a newMiddle East, Russian influence isorder in the region.

increasing. Not only anti-Americancountries such as Iran and Syria but also

Aside from tensions between pro-US

traditionally pro-American countries

forces and anti-US (pro-Iran) forces, thesuch as Saudi Arabia, Israel, Egypt, andpower game of Turkey and Qatar versus

Turkey are willing to build amicable

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates

relations with Russia, fearing the Trumpand Egypt is defining intraregional

administration’s

policies

relations. From around 2010, a struggle

and retreat from the Middle East. Afor supremacy between the Red Sea andmember of NATO, Turkey decided tothe Horn of Africa began to surface.

purchase and deploy the S-400 surface-

Behind this is the fact that in recent

to-air missile system from Russia inyears, as the conflict between Iran2019, despite objections from the United

and the United States and their allies

States. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have(especially Saudi Arabia and the UAE)

also begun procuring new weapons fromin the Persian Gulf has escalated, theMoscow, as well as purchasing large“Red Sea Shift” has been accelerating

amounts of weapons from Washington.

as both oil suppliers and shippers seek

unreliable

out a safe energy transport route.
Israel, which is concerned about Iran’s
move to construct bases in Syria,

Inincluding the Golan Heights near theUAE

border with Israel, has asked Russianin Yemen by setting up bases in

President Vladimir Putin to check Iran.

Djibouti and subsequently Eritrea andRussia seems to be taking advantage ofSomaliland. As a consequence of thesethe decline of US power in the Middle

developments, some African countries

Eastinternational

are wary of the incursion of outsidepresence and use “the Middle Eastforces, while others are actively seekingcard” as a means to counter the United

to build relationships in order to extract

States. However, its involvement is stillassistance by taking advantage of theopportunistic in nature and Russia

competition among countries. There

does not necessarily intend to take on

are also examples that have contributedtoincrease

its2015,

Saudi

began

Arabiainterveningand

themilitarily50

to peace to a certain extent. Ethiopia
dramatically restored its relations withEritrea in 2018, as a result of a consensuson concerns and interests among
China, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, andEthiopia. The Red Sea and the Horn ofAfrica are transportation and logistics
nodes that connect Asia, the Middle
East, Europe, and Africa. They are also
important chokepoints for maritime
trade and energy transportation in
the world economy. Despite theirgeopolitical importance, the absenceof a multilateral framework to manage
security in the region has in some ways
escalated the competition for hegemony.
In future, the Japanese government
will need to formulate a strategy
and an international framework forcooperation to protect energy supply
routes and freedom of navigation witha comprehensive perspective that links
the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea
under the concept of a “Free and Open
Indo-Pacific”.■51