Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
1. Name of the Project（１） Country: India（２） Project Title: North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement
Project (Phase 3) (II)（３） Project Site/ Target Area: State of Assam (Population: about 31.2million), State of Meghalaya (Population: about 2.96 million) (2011)
Loan Agreement: February 20, 2024
2. Background and Necessity of the Project（１）Current State and Issues of the Road Sector and Priority in India
In India, the National Highway Development Project (hereinafter referred toas “NHDP”) was initiated by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways(hereinafter referred to as “MoRTH”) in 1998. Under this project, major arterial
roads connecting major cities including the Golden Quadrilateral that links thecapital Delhi, Mumbai in the west, Kolkata in the east, and Chennai in thesoutheast have been developed. In 2018, development of the main arterial
roads was steadily under way, including the completion of road construction
work on the entire section planned in 1998 (7,522km).
On the other hand, the pavement ratio of all rads in the northeast region(States of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Tripura, Nagaland, Manipur,Mizoram, and Meghalaya) is 36.0% (relative to the national average of 72.0%),
the ratio of two-way two-or-more-lane roads among national roads is 48.0%(relative to 70.9%) (Basic Road Statistics of India 2018-2019). This delay inroad development has impeded the stable flow of people and materials within
the region and with other regions in and outside of India, which is attributable tothe delay in economic development. The per capita GDP (2020-2021) of Assamand Meghalaya is 56,953 Indian rupees (Reserve Bank of India, 2022), well
below the national average of 112,677 Indian rupees (World Bank, 2022), andthe Government of India has identified the reduction of regional disparities oneof its top priorities. In Finance Minister Sitharaman's FY2023 budget speech inFebruary 2023, among the capital expenditure budget, which increased by
33.4% compared to the FY2022 expenditure forecast, the budget related totransportation and traffic increased by 46.9% and the budget related to thedevelopment of the North Eastern region increased by 110.4%, indicating thatthe development.

The Government of India is promoting the construction of national highways
between major cities in the region through “Special Accelerated Road
Development Program for North-East” as a means of promoting socio-economic
development and reducing disparities in the northeast region. In particular, theGelephu-Dalu Corridor, which runs through Bhutan, India, and Bangladesh, isessential from both political and economic perspectives to improve connectivity
with other regions of India and neighboring countries. However, the section ofNational Highway 127B, part of the Geleph Dalu Corridor, is currently
disconnected by the Brahmaputra River, and it can only be crossed by smallboats, or by land detouring approximately 200 km to the nearest bridge.
Therefore, constructing a new bridge to connect Assam State and Meghalaya
State, is highly necessary to resolve this missing link of National Highway 127B.
The North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 3)(II) (hereinafter referred to as “the Project”) will construct a bridge (total length:20 km) connecting between Dhubri in Assam State and Phulbari in Meghalaya
State in northeastern region of India, aims at enhancing connectivity within theregion and with other regions both domestically and internationally, thereby
contributing to the realization of the aforementioned policy of the Government ofIndia.
（ ２ ） Japan’s and JICA’s Policy Cooperation and Operations in the Road
Sector/ Northeast Region (especially in relation to key foreign policies such as
the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Partnership (FOIP))Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) formulated by theGovernment of Japan, stipulates that the country will "develop the criticalinfrastructure necessary to ensure continued investment and high growth amid
the need to achieve inclusive and stable high economic growth." The Policy also
identifies "reinforcement of connectivity" as a priority area. With a view toeliminating infrastructure bottlenecks with respect to investment and economic
growth, the Policy will support the development of transport infrastructure so as
to strengthen connectivity among major industrial cities, economic zones, andregions in the country.
The Project will also contribute to resolving infrastructure bottlenecks toinvestment and growth in “strengthening connectivity,” which is identified as apriority area in JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018), and theProject is consistent with these policies and analyses.
Furthermore, the Project is expected to contribute to the pursuit of economic

prosperity in the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)” from the perspective ofimproving connectivity within and beyond the region. In addition, the Project isconsistent with Japan's key foreign policies, such as pursuing cooperation topromote connectivity in the northeast region, as confirmed at the Japan-India
Summit in March 2022, and launching “Japan-U.S.-Australia-India (QUAD)
Infrastructure Partnership” and promoting sustainable infrastructuredevelopment through technical assistance, as announced at the QUAD Summit
in September 2021.
The Project aligns with India's development agendas and policies as well as
the cooperation policy and analysis of Japan and JICA, and will contribute to theSDGs Goal 8 (Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth,
full and productive employment and decent work for all) and Goal 9 (Buildresilient infrastructure).
（３）Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank (WB) is financing the Assam State Highway Project (StateHighway 46) (March 2012 to September 2019) and the Mizoram State Roads
Project (June 2014 to April 2021) in the northeast region. The WB is also
providing support (total project cost: US$150 million) to improve connectivity
and further develop agriculture and tourism in Meghalaya by repairing andupgrading National Highway 17, State Highway 12, and State Highway 2 inAssam and National Highway 17, State Highway 127, and other roads in
Meghalaya through the Meghalaya Integrated Transport Project launched inOctober 2020. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is financing road
improvement in the northeast region through the North Eastern State Roads
Investment Program Tranche 1 (October 2012 to December 2016) and Project 2(May 2014 - June 2021). ADB also supports the strengthening of domestic andregional trade corridors (such as Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) andBangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal(BBIN))
througheconomiccorridor
development projects under the framework of South Asia Subregional EconomicCooperation.
3. Project Description（１） Project Description① Project Objectives
The Project aims to improve the connectivity of the North Eastern Regionof India through constructing the bridge between Dhubri and Phulbri,
thereby promoting regional socio-economic development.

② Project Componentsa) Construction of new bridge, etc.
(Approximately 20 km: Including access roads, 2 lanes on each side)b) Consulting services (construction supervision, etc.)③ Project Beneficiaries (Target Groups):
Direct beneficiaries (Users of developed bridge and roads : about 3
million/year), Final beneficiaries (Population benefiting from economic
development around the developed bridge and roads: Assam: about 31.2
million people, Meghalaya: about 2.96 million people. Population ofnortheastern region that will benefit economically from improved connectivity
with neighboring countries: about 44.98 million people).
（２）Estimated Project Cost:78,937 million yen (Japanese ODA loan of thistranche: 34,537 million yen)
（３）Schedule (Cooperation Period):October 2018 to September 2032 (168months in total). The Project completion shall be the date to commence thefacility service (September 2028).
（４）Project Implementation Structure１）Borrower: President of India
２）Guarantor: N/A
３）Executing Agency: National Highways and Infrastructure Development
Corporation Limited (hereinafter referred to as “NHIDCL”)
４）Operation and maintenance system:
Operation and maintenance after the project completion is planned to beoutsourced to private companies with similar work experiences, under thesupervision and responsibility of NHIDCL. Regarding NHIDCL budget,
obtaining subsidy from MoRTH is ensured. The cost of operation andmaintenance is to be paid from the subsidy. There are no special financial
concerns.
（５）Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors:
１）Japan's Activities:
Major national highways in northeastern region are under construction
or scheduled to be constructed under the ODA loans “North East Road
Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 1-7)”, which,
together with the Project, will enhance the connectivity of major
highways in the region. In addition, JICA has implemented the TechnicalCooperation “The Capacity Development Project on Highways inMountainous Regions” (2016-2022) to support the formulation ofguidelines for road construction, bridges, tunnels, slope reduction, androad operation and maintenance, as well as to strengthen the capacityof relevant government staff. JICA has already shared these guidelines
with NHIDCL, the executing agency for the Project.
２）Other Donor's Activities: None（６）Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason for Categorization:
The Project falls into the road sector and has influential characteristics,
both being shown in the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social
Considerations (proclaimed in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit
Preparation of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) concerning
this project is not obliged by the domestic laws of India. However, an EIA
was approved by NHIDCL in May 2018.
④ Anti-pollution measures
During construction, measures are being taken to meet domestic
emission and environmental standards for air quality, water quality, waste,noise and vibration, such as water sprinkling, waste disposal at agovernment-designated disposal site, reuse of surplus soil, maintenanceof heavy construction equipment, and installation of noise barriers. Inaddition, measures are being taken for noise and vibration during service
through maintenance of road surfaces and limiting the use of whistles.
⑤ Natural environment
The target area of the project does not fall within an area susceptible
to the impact of construction works such as national parks, etc. or thesurrounding area. Since the presence of rare species including Ganges
river dolphins has been confirmed, in addition to taking mitigation
measures by installing anti-water-pollution curtains and suspending
construction work as necessary, detailed surveys on the ecology of rare
species will be conducted and the mitigation and monitoring plan will beupdated, as necessary.
⑥ Social environment
The Project involves the acquisition of 137.4 ha of land and theinvoluntary resettlement of 627 people, and has been carried out andcompleted in accordance with the resettlement plan prepared based on
domestic procedures and JICA guidelines. No particular opposition to theimplementation of the Project has been confirmed during theconsultations with the local residents.
⑦ Other/Monitoring:
During construction, the contractors, etc. monitor air quality, waterquality, waste, noise and vibration, etc. under the supervision of NHIDCL.
NHIDCL monitors the noise, vibration, etc. while the constructed facilities
are placed in service. NHIDCL and local environmental NGOs monitor
the ecosystem, land acquisition, and involuntary resettlement .
（７）Cross-Sectoral Issues:①Poverty measures and considerations：It is expected to promote theeconomic activities of residents along the Project site, thereby
contributing to poverty reduction.
②Measures against HIV/AIDS and other infectious diseases：The Projectis expected to involve a large number of workers, and the risk of HIV
infection is considered high. Therefore, to mitigate the risk of HIV
infection during construction work, an HIV/AIDS prevention clause isincluded in the bidding documents and the contractors are required totake necessary measures of HIV/AIDS preventions for workers.
（８）Gender Category【Not a Gender Project】■GI (Gender Informed)<Reason for Categorization> The preparatory survey of the project conducted asocial and gender analysis, however, concrete initiatives and indicators that
contribute to gender equality and women's empowerment have not been
identified for the Project.
（９）Other Important Issues
Drone technology is regularly utilized for supervision of the bridge
construction to check the progress of work in each section, as well as to monitor
the impact of rain water flooding of the Project site in the rainy season. The
Project will contribute to the promotion of DX, as it was confirmed in theappraisal that DX promotion measures, such as data collection and utilization oftraffic volume surveys, etc., will be taken after the completion of construction.
4. Targeted Outcomes（１） Quantitative Effects
１）
Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)

Indicator

Baseline(Actual value in 2017)

Target (2030)[Expected value 2 years
after project completion]

Averagedaily traffic
volume in the target―
14,547section (PCU/day)
No. of passengers in thetarget section―
2,953,887(persons/year) (Note 1)
Freight volume in thetarget section (t/year)―
11,841,106(Note 1)
Average required travel
8.21
0.39
time (hours) (Note 2)(Note 1) The number of passengers is calculated by multiplying the
breakdown of “average daily traffic volume in the target section" by 365 days
and the maximum number of passengers of each vehicle (1.5 persons for amotorcycle, 3 persons for a passenger car, 20 persons for a small bus, and 40
persons for a bus.) The freight volume is calculated by multiplying thebreakdown of “average daily traffic volume in the target section” by 365 days
and the maximum load capacity of each freight vehicle (one ton for LCV, 3 tons
for two axel truck, 13 tons for three axel truck, and 15 tons for multiple axel
truck or trailer.)(Note 2) The baseline is the actual value in 2017, based on the traveling time
data of the nearest detour between Dhubri - Phulbari (a route crossing theNaranarayan Setu Bridge in Goalpara about 60 km upstream along theBrahmaputra River).
２）Quantitative Effects:
Improvement of connectivity within and outside India, economic developmentin the area, and travel comfort of the subject section.
３）Internal Rates of Return:
Under the conditions indicated below, the economic internal rate of return(EIRR) is 18.2%. Since the Project does not collect fees, the financial internalrate of return (FIRR) is not calculated. and the financial internal rate of return(FIRR) will not be calculated.
【EIRR】
Cost: Project costs, operation and maintenance costs (excluding taxes)
Benefit: Reduction in vehicle running costs and travel time costs

Project Life: 25 years
5. External Factors and Risk Control（１） Preconditions: None
（２） External Factors: The security in the Project area shall not deterioratesignificantly.
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
Based on the ex-post evaluation of the ODA loan to the Republic of thePhilippines, "Rehabilitation and Maintenance of Bridges Along Arterial Road"(evaluation year: FY2005), a lesson was learned that if the executing agency
and the construction supervision consultants confirm the appropriateness of theconstruction period considering the rainy and dry seasons, construction can becompleted within a reasonable period and the impact of natural disasters can beminimized. In the Project, the construction schedule with the rainy season taken
into consideration has already been agreed upon with the executing agency. It
has already been agreed that appointing a worker who can make a construction
plan taking weather and disaster risks into consideration as the construction
supervision consultant can minimize impacts of natural disaster and enable safe
construction.
7. Evaluation Results
The Project is consistent with India's development agenda and policies, as wellas Japan's and JICA's cooperation policies and analysis. The Project also
contribute to enhancing connectivity within the region and with other regions
both domestically and internationally, and to achieve SDDs Goal 9 "Build
resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization, andfoster innovation," and SDGs Goal 10 "Reduce inequality within and among
countries to rectify." Therefore, there is a strong need to support theimplementation of the Project.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation（１） Indicators to be Used
As described in Section 4. (1) to (3).
（２） Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after the project completion
END
Appendix: Map of the North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement
Project (Phase 3) (II)Appendix
Map: North East Road Network Connectivity Improvement Project (Phase 3)(II)
Project Overview Map (including preceding phase projects)(Source：Created by JICA from www.mapofindia.com )Map of India

Enlarged Map(Source: Compiled by JICA from www.google.com)【Enlarged Map】
Green line・・・Under construction (Phase 1-6) and to be constructed (Phase 7)
Red line・・・ Site of the Project (Phase 3)【Image of the completion】
Phase 1 （Under construction）
・Section A（National Highway 51）
・Section B（National Highway 54 excluding Bypass）
Phase 2 （Under construction）
・Section B（National Highway 54 Bypass only）
・Section C（National Highway 40）
Phase 3 （The Project：under construction）
・Section D (Dhubri-Phulbari Bridge)
Phase 4 （Under construction）
・Section E（National Highway 208 Kailashahar – Khowai）
Phase 5 （Under construction）
・Section F（National Highway 127B Srirampur – Dhubri）
Phase 6 （Under construction）
・Section G（National Highway 208 Khowai – Sabroom）
Phase 7 （To be constructed）
・Section H（National Highway 127B Phulbari - Goeragre）