The Many Dimensions ofBehavior Change
Alan Meier
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory&University of California, Davis

Plan – A keynote with 2 parts
1. How much will President Trump Change U.S. Energy andEnvironmental Policies?
2. Many Dimensions of Behavior Change

2How much will President Trump Change U.S.
Energy and Environmental Policies?
The US will:• Leave the Paris Climate
Agreement• Change domestic policies:

U.S. CO2 Emissions 1990 - 2015

• Increase energy production(except renewables)• Ignore energy efficiency• Weaken environmental
regulations

But CO2 emissions will still fall~2% in 2017 because:• Coal  gas & renewables ( butslower)• Reduced electricity demand3Residential Electricity Use is Falling
Reductions in• kWh sales• kWh/person• kWh/household

Savings caused by:• Minimum efficiency
regulations for appliances• PV installations• LEDs replace incandescentbulbs• Warmer winters in south• Behavior?
4

Why is it Difficult to Change America’s GHG
Trajectory?
America’s energy systems are highly decentralized
Each state:

Average Residential Electricity Prices Vary Widely• regulates electricity prices• sets taxes on electricity, natural gas, gasoline• has its own rebates and subsidies for solar, EE,etc.
• makes special regulations for local air quality,transportation, etc.
• has different fuel mix, economy, climate• supports its own energy and environmental
research

There are ~3,000 electric utility companies in
the US:
Number of Electric Utility Companies• Private• Municipal
Power marketers 181
Investor-owned 193• Other
Cooperatives
Publicly owned

873
2006
0500

1000

1500

2000

2500

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There is a Wide Range of Public Opinion Regarding
Climate Change in the United States
Estimated % of adults who think global warming is happening, 2016
USATotal

Yes

0%

10%

20%

30%

[SERIES NAME]

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

No90%

100%

USA total

By county(not population weighted)
Source: Yale Program on Climate Communication,
http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2016/6

My prediction: States and cities will leadenergy policies for the next 3 years• Many states and cities have established their own GHG goals• California (and other states)• 2030 GHG emissions reduction target of 40 percent below 1990 level• Companies• Many of the largest companies will keep or make new environmental goals• Apple already uses 96% renewable electricity and pushing suppliers to be similarly green• Walmart will remove 1 Gigaton GHG from its supply chain by 2030 (= Germany’s GHG)

• If you want to learn about new EE policies (sometimes involvingbehavior), you must visit cities like Sacramento, Seattle, New York,
Austin, and Bentonville*. But Washington, D.C. will be less important
for the next few years.
*Location of Walmart headquarters

7Changes in Human Behavior Can Reduce
Energy Consumption
Behavior change is important because:• It can happen quickly• It’s diverse: millions of people or large supply chains• A crisis or a deliberate policy can cause the changeTime scales for changes in behavior:• One hour
• One event or crisis• Permanently

Changing corporate behavior can havea huge impact on energy use (anddeserves more research)

Small changes in behavior (even if temporary) encourage
people to make larger or more permanent changes.
8Categories of Behavior
Economic

This area
explored bytraditional
economics

motivations
External event

The priceof energy

Not rational
Rational

Customs & traditions
Terra
incognita –Unknown
placesPolitical statement

Non-economic
Inspired by: Akerlof, George A., and Robert J. Shiller. 2010. Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology
Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism. Princeton University Press.

9Political statement

EARTH HOUR: An
Environmental Campaign
Lowers Electricity Demand• Many people triedsaving energy for the
first time
• Will next action belonger? More enduring?
• Behavior changes also
included buying more
efficient lights, etc.
Observed Reduction in Electricity Use During Earth Hour
Olexsak, Sarah J., and Alan Meier. 2014. “The Electricity Impacts of Earth Hour: An International Comparative
Analysis of Energy-Saving Behavior.” Energy Research & Social Science 2 (June): 159–82.

10Juneau, Alaska, Cut Electricity Use 40% in 6 Weeks
External event
Sample conservation
measures:- Lower thermostats- Reduce lighting- Cut hot water use- Install compact
fluorescent bulbs

Massive snow
avalanche cuts allhydroelectricpower to Juneau!

Juneau organized a conservation
campaign in 5 days

- Reduce standby power,
unplug electronics, anduse power strips- Shorten businessschedules- Conserve cold water- Switch off airport
runway lights

10% reduction
continued aftercrisis ends
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Brazil cut its electricity demand 20% in 3 months
External event

Drought empties
Brazil’s reservoirs

No black-outs

Economysurvived
2008 demand
still below 2001
President
declaresnational
emergency
and requires
conservation

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The Electricity Impacts of Coordinated Behavior Can be HugeElectricity
Demand andCapacity (GW)

Customs & traditions

Meier, Alan, Kadir Bedir, Sho Hirayama, and Nakagami. 2015. “Japan’s 6 GW Lunch Break.” In
ECEEE 2015 Summer Study Proceedings, 203–7. Hyères, France: European Council for an
Energy Efficient Economy.

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Customs & traditions

14Persistence of Behavior Changes: From 1 hour  50 years• Japanese lunch-time behavior
has persisted for over 50years• Can this behavior be exported?

• Will CoolBiz be anotherpersistent behavior?

Customs & traditions
Humor is an important tool for
promoting behavior change• What are the supply chains for
CoolBiz?
• Can America import thisbehavior?

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Motivations for NOT Changing Behavior

Fear of the Unknown

16

New or complicated user interfaces are an obstacle
to saving energy“It’s easy tosave energy”
Fear of the unknown“I can’t see which
button saves
energy … so I won’t
touch it.”17

Conclusions• Carbon emissions in the US willcontinue to decline but look to thestates, cities, and firms for innovations
in energy efficiency and climatechange• The motivations for changes inbehavior are diverse.
• Most of the research has focused on the”rational, economic” quadrant• We need to examine behavior of firms
and their relationships with each other(supply chains)• Don’t just study behavior, take action
and then evaluate impact ofinterventions, new arrangements, andeven humor

Economic

This area
explored bytraditional
economics
Not rational
Rational

Non-economic

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