Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: The People’s Republic of Bangladesh
Project: Disaster Risk Management Enhancement Project
Loan Agreement: June 29, 2016
Loan Amount: 16,996 million YenBorrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Disaster Management Sector in Bangladesh
The People’s Republic of Bangladesh faces the Bay of Bengal and 90% of the land issituated in the world’s largest delta, a low-lying area at an elevation of 10m or less above sea
level. Approximately 20% of the land is inundated in rainy season. Beside that a cyclone
strikes the country nearly every year. Meteorological and climatic factors, as well as
topographical factors, cause a high frequency of natural disasters. According to theEmergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the total number of deaths due to natural disaster inthe past 30 years from 1985 through 2014 was more than 170 thousand and that of theaffected people of natural disaster was over 262 million. Bangladesh’s annual average
economic loss in the same period was approximately 570 million dollars, which accounted forabout 0.9% of the average GDP in the same period. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable
countries to natural disaster in the world. Also, a major earthquake that occurred in Nepal, its
neighbor country, in April 2015 elevated the sense of vigilance against earthquakes.
The Disaster Management Act was enforced in 2012 in Bangladesh under the support ofinternational development agencies. The act provides that disaster risk reduction andemergency measures shall be comprehensively implemented under the initiative of theMinistry of Disaster Management and Relief (MoDMR). However, the disaster risk
management system is still fragile and the inter-ministerial formulation of disaster risk
reduction plans and guidelines and the lateral communication system among relevant
ministries and agencies to disaster risk reduction have not been appropriately established. As
for infrastructure recovery and rehabilitation, although disaster risk reduction measures basedon independent criteria have been taken in each ministry or agency, there are many cases
where an investment in disaster risk reduction is not made due to insufficient coordination
among ministries and agencies, and the neighboring areas are at high risk of suffering disasterbecause of the government’s failure to carry out timely repairs. An example of investment indisaster risk reduction may be cited the fact that although a budget for an embankment roadhas been prepared, a budget for repairing the foundation of the embankment is not secured.
There is a room for improvement in the effective and efficient use of a disaster risk reduction
budget. In terms of communication system and equipment utilized in disaster, thegovernment’s enhanced disaster information transmission system is acknowledged since theresidents’ evacuation rate has increased at the time of occurrence of a recent cyclone. On theother hand, the information-gathering network in the afflicted area during disaster is fragile,which is an obstacle to accurate emergency action or early recovery. Moreover, the proceduresor rules for post-disaster recovery and rehabilitation have not been established, thus prompt
recovery cannot be taken.
(2) Development Policies for the Disaster Risk Management Sector in Bangladesh and thePriority of the Project
The People’s Republic of Bangladesh has set a goal of becoming a middle-income country
by the year 2021, aiming to increase domestic and foreign investment. Vulnerability todisaster is a major impediment to sustainable social and economic development in variousforms. For example, vulnerability to disaster will not only raise the risk of investment but
increase the cost of restoring damaged infrastructure, boost demand for material andequipment necessary to rescue and relief victims buried under a building which has collapsed
in a disaster, and deprive the poor of a means of livelihood. In order to reduce vulnerability todisaster and build a resilient society, the government has decided to incorporate priority
actions agreed upon in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in the goal andactivities of The Seventh Five Year Plan (FY2015/16 to 2019/20), strengthen the capacity of
the whole staff, and reduce disaster risk. The Disaster Risk Management Enhancement Project(hereinafter referred to as “the Project”) has been positioned as a priority project to enhance
the capacity for proper management of natural disaster risk toward the activities to beconducted in line with the Sendai Framework. The activities include disaster risk reduction,emergency response and enhancement of quick and effective recovery/rehabilitation system.
(3) Japan and JICA’s Policy and Operations in the Disaster Risk Management Sector
The priority goal in the Country Assistance Policy for Bangladesh (June 2012) is to support
effective disaster risk reduction and response to climate change to overcome socialvulnerability. Also, JICA designated “disaster risk reduction and response to climate change”
as a priority subject in the JICA Country Analysis Paper for Bangladesh (April 2013). The
Project is in line with this policy and analysis. JICA cooperated in the disaster risk
management sector through ODA loan assistance Emergency Disaster Damage Rehabilitation
Project (2008) and Haor Flood Management and Livelihood Improvement Project (2014).
(4) Other Donors’ Activity
The World Bank extends assistance for infrastructure recovery/improvement in the coastal
area while the Asian Development Bank supports the prevention of riverbank erosion on
Jamuna and Meghna Rivers. The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) extended
policy-level assistance and built data collection system for early prediction and warning toestablish the framework of the country’s disaster management system. UNDP’s activities wereterminated in 2015. In order to realize disaster risk reduction, it is necessary to create amechanism to formulate an implementation plan and continuously conduct activities based on
the framework.

(5) Necessity of the Project
The Project is in line with the assistance policy and the analysis of the Government ofJapan and JICA, and will contribute to enhancing risk management of natural disaster andimproving the existing infrastructure. There is a great need for JICA to support theimplementation of the Project.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to enhance comprehensive disaster risk management of theGovernment of Bangladesh by recovering and rehabilitating infrastructures at high risk fornatural disasters, providing equipment for emergency communication and relief, andestablishing the scheme for quick and effective recovery and rehabilitation works and its
implementation, thereby contributing to build Bangladeshi society more disaster-resilient
towards sustainable development.
(2) Project Site/Target Area: Throughout Bangladesh(3) Project Components
Following project components will be carried out within the inter-ministerial framework
coordinated by MoDMR.
1) Enhancing disaster risk reduction (infrastructure recovery/rehabilitation) (hereinafterreferred to as “Component 1”): Recovery/rehabilitation of basic infrastructure for daily life
such as embankments, bridges, and roads that may increase disaster risk in the neighboringarea due to insufficient recovery after the disaster occurred in the past.
2) Enhancing disaster emergency response (improvement of equipment) (hereinafterreferred to as “Component 2”): Providing equipment for residents’ evacuation,
understanding disaster damage and affected situation and radio communication equipment
and field communication vehicle to strengthen disaster relief system.
3) Enhancing quick and effective recovery/rehabilitation system after the disaster(Recover/rehabilitation of infrastructure that might be damaged by future disaster)(hereinafter referred to as Component 3): To establish a mechanism to enable quick andfull-scale recovery/rehabilitation in the event of a disaster and to quickly
recover/rehabilitate embankments, bridges, roads, cyclone/flood shelters, and otherstructures by using the mechanism.
4) Consulting services (detailed design involved in infrastructure recovery/rehabilitationand equipment procurement, tender assistance, construction supervision, coordination
among relevant ministries and agencies to disaster risk reduction)(4) Estimated Project Cost (Loan Amount)
20,692 million Yen (Loan Amount: 16,996 million Yen）
(5) Schedule
June 2016 - June 2022 (73 months in total). The Project will be completed when all
facilities are put into service (June 2021).

(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing Agencies: MoDMR serves as a coordinator among relevant ministries andagencies to disaster risk reduction. The executing agencies of each project component are
shown below:① Component 1：Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) under the Ministry ofWater Resources and Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) under theMinistry of Local Government, Rural Development & Cooperatives② Component 2：Department of Disaster Management (DDM) under MoDMR and Fire
Service and Civil Defence (FSCD) under the Ministry of Home Affairs③ Component 3 ： Department of Disaster Management (DDM) under MoDMR,
Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) under the Ministry of Water Resources,and Local Government Engineering Department (LGED) under the Ministry of Local
Government, Rural Development & Cooperatives4) Operation and Maintenance System: The management of the Project is conducted byDDM, BWDB, LGED and FSCD. Since each agency has sufficient capacity andexperience in improving infrastructure and maintaining equipment, there is no particular
problem. In terms of the field communication vehicle, which to be introduced for the firsttime in Bangladesh, the supplier will provide technical assistance in operating, maintaining,and managing the vehicle.
(7) Environmental and Social Consideration / Poverty Reduction / Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: FI② Reason for Categorization
The Project is classifies as Category FI according to the JICA Guidelines forEnvironmental and Social Considerations (April 2010), because its subprojects cannot be
specified prior to JICA’s approval of funding and those subprojects are expected to have apotential impact on the environment.
③ Other / Monitoring
In the Project, BWDB and LGED responsible for infrastructure recovery will categorize
subprojects on the basis of the internal legal system of the People’s Republic ofBangladesh and the JICA Guidelines for Environmental and Social Considerations (April2010) and take measures necessary for the relevant category while assistance of aconsultant hired with yen loan will be provided. None of the subprojects will fall under
the Category A.
(8) Other Important Issues
As for equipment to enhance disaster emergency response, Japanese technology, or an
all-in-one field communication vehicle, may be introduced.

4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicator)
Indicator

Baseline

Target (2023)（Actual Value in2015）【Expected value 2 years
after project completion】(Note 1）

Increase (Note 1)0

Increase (Note 2)

41

153

0

Increase (Note 5)0

Increase (Note 5)

Component 1
Numberof

rehabilitatedinfrastructures

recoveredthroughandinter-ministerial

coordination
Component 2
Number of Project Implementation Office inupazila in the target 12 districts with dual system
for information communication (number ofoffices)
Number of fire stations in the target 12 districts
with dual system for information communication(number of stations)Component 3
Numberof

rehabilitatedinfrastructures

recoveredthroughandinter-ministerialcoordination (number of projects)
Number of recovery projects (more than 100
million Japanese yen) completed within one (1)year after disaster occurs (Note 4)
Note 1：Original and target value will be set through baseline survey immediately after the approval ofsubprojects.
Note 2：Target value will be set through a baseline survey expected in April 2017.
Note 4：The cost of a recovery project mentioned above is an indication only. The cost of the recovery projectwill be surveyed and determined before the Project starts.
Note 5：The indicator will be confirmed only after disaster occurred. Therefore, actual days taken will berecorded instead of setting target value.

2) Internal Rate of Return
The Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR) is not calculated because it is difficult to
identify subprojects before implementing the Project.
(2) Qualitative Effects
1) Reduction of disaster risk to human life, property, socioeconomic activities, etc. andimprovement of information transmission before, during, and after the disaster2) An increase in efficiency of public administration for disaster prevention (starting early
emergency activities, conducting prompt recovery/rehabilitation activities, efficientallocation of budget)
5. External Factors and Risk Control
N/A
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects(1) Lessons Learned from Past Projects
From the ex-post evaluation of Sri Lanka Tsunami Affected Area Recovery and Takeoff
Project, we drew a few lessons as shown below. A lot of infrastructure restoration support
projects are carried out around the same time after the disaster. Therefore, it will take longer
than usual to perform a procurement procedure because there is a shortage of material andequipment/contractors or the implementing agency’s staff is very busy. It is desirable to takethis into consideration when we set the project period. Also, it should be considered to adopt aappropriate procurement procedure while minimizing the implementing agency’s workload
and ensuring the quality of work
(2) Application of Lessons Learned to the Project
In order to enhance quick and effective recovery/rehabilitation system, the consultant hired
for the Project will help organize the work flow through the implementation of Component 3,
bearing in mind a shortage of resources including the staff and a reduction of workload.
7. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used:
Component 1: Number of infrastructuresinter-ministerial coordination

recoveredandrehabilitatedthrough

Component 2： Number of Project Implementation Office in upazila in the target 12districts with dual system for information communication, Number of fire stations in thetarget 12 districts with dual system for information communication
Component 3: Number of infrastructures recovered and rehabilitated throughinter-ministerial coordination, Number of recovery projects (more than 100 millionJapanese yen) completed within one (1) year after disaster occurs(2) Timing: Two years after the project completion