BOSAI-TECH 基調講演

東北大学災害科学国際研究所
防災実践推進部門長
2030国際防災アジェンダ推進オフィス 教授
災害統計グローバルセンター長
一般財団法人・世界防災フォーラム代表理事
小野裕一

小野の研究履歴・職歴

過去居住地
Research/work

UN ISDR BonnKent, Ohio

2004-2007

1994-2001

WMO and UN
ISDR Geneva

Tempe, Arizona
2001
Tornadoresearch in the
Great Planes
1994-2001

Tornado Research in Japan
Tornado research in Since 1990
Bangladesh
Since 1996

2002-2004 and 20072009
Hattiesburg and Long
Beach, Mississippi 1990

••
•
•
•

UN ESCAP, Bangkok,Thailand 2009-2012

Indian Ocean Tsunami Early
Warning System
Since 2005
1994-2001: Research on tornado disaster risk reduction
2002-2004: World Meteorological Organization (Geneva)
2003-2009: United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (Geneva-Bonn-Geneva)
2009-2012: United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific2013-:
International Research Institute of Disaster Science (Tohoku University)

本日のお題：1. 近年の世界の災害動向
2. 仙台防災枠組等の国際防災アジェンダに基づく国際防災政策について（実施状況、成果、課題等）

3. 防災における非政府・民間セクターの役割・重要性
4. BOSAI-TECHに取り組む企業・自治体等に期待すること

1. 近年の世界の災害動向
本当に災害は増えているか？激甚化しているか？死者は増えているか？経済的被害は？
気候変動の影響か？だとしたらどれくらい気候変動の影響で増えているか？

Global disaster deaths caused by natural hazard since 1970

Cyclone, Bangladesh

Drought, Eastern Africa

Earthquake, China + Cyclone, Myanmar

Earthquake, China

Earthquake, Haiti
Drought,
Eastern Africa

Tsunami,Indian Ocean
Earthquake, Pakistan日本の自然災害での死者・行方不明者数 1945-2015

Deaths caused by conflicts in the 20th Century (deaths per 100,000)

WWI
16 Million deaths

WWII
50-80 Million deaths(2.5% of the WorldPopulation)

Next page

A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE by Steven Pinker

Deaths caused by conflicts after the WWII2. 仙台防災枠組等の国際防災アジェンダに基づく国際防災政策について（実施状況、成果、課題等）
国連防災機関（UNDRR)

Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030
I. Preamble
前文
II. Expected outcome and goal
期待される成果と目標

III. Guiding principles
指導原則
IV. Priorities for action
優先行動
Priority 1: Understanding disaster risk
Priority 2: Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk
Priority 3: Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience
Priority 4: Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response,
and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction

V. Role of stakeholders
ステークホルダー（防災関係者）の役割
VI. International cooperation and global partnership
国際協力とグローバル・パートナーシップ

10Ⅳ．優先行動
優先事項１：災害リスクの理解 （Understanding disaster risk）☆ 関連データの収集・分析・管理・活用☆ 災害が複合的に発生する可能性を含めた災害リスク評価☆ 地理空間情報の活用，防災教育，普及啓発，サプライチェーン
優先事項２：災害リスク管理のための災害リスクガバナンス （Strengtheningdisaster risk governance to manage disaster risk）☆ 全てのセクターにわたる防災の主流化，防災戦略計画の採択☆ 関係ステークホルダーとの政府の調整の場，ステークホルダーへの責任と権限の付与
優先事項３：強靭化に向けた防災への投資 （Investing in disaster risk reductionfor resilience）☆ ハード・ソフト対策を通じた防災への官民投資☆ 土地利用，建築基準優先事項４：効果的な応急対応に向けた準備の強化と「より良い復興（Build BackBetter）」 （Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response,
and to “Build Back Better” in recovery, rehabilitation and reconstruction）☆ 災害予警報，事業継続，避難場所・食糧・資機材の確保，避難訓練☆ 復旧・復興段階における基準類，土地利用計画の改善を含めた災害予防策☆ 国際復興プラットフォーム（IRP）などの国際メカニズム強化

11Ⅱ．期待される成果と目標➢ 今後15年の期待される成果として，「人命・暮らし・健康と，個人・企業・コミュニティ・国の経済的，物理的，社会的，文化的，環境的資産に対する災害リスク及び損失の大幅な削減」を目指す。
➢ 上記成果を達成するため，「ハザードへの暴露（exposure）及び脆弱性を予防・削減し，応急対応及び復旧への備え強化し，強靱性を強化する，統合されかつ包摂的な，経済，ハード及びソフト，法律，社会，健康，文化，教育，環境，技術，政治及び制度的手段の実施を通じ，新たな災害リスクを予防し，既存の災害リスクを減少させる」とのゴール（goal）を追求する。

➢ ターゲット（target）：①死亡者数，②被災者数，③経済的損失，④重要インフラの損害，⑤防災戦
略採用国数，⑥国際協力，⑦早期警戒及び災害リスク情報へのアクセス

12

最終段落に明示された宿題

モニタリングのための指標と用語の作成Indicator and Terminology of the Sendai Framework
Sendai Framework Paragraph 50
The Conference recommends to the General Assembly theestablishment, at its sixty-ninth session, of an open-ended
intergovernmental working group, comprising experts nominatedby Member States, and supported by the United Nations Office forDisaster Risk Reduction, with involvement of relevant stakeholders, forthe development of a set of possible indicators to measureglobal progress in the implementation of the present Framework in
conjunction with the work of the Inter-Agency and Expert Group On
Sustainable Development Goal Indicators. The Conference alsorecommends that the working group consider the recommendations ofthe United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction Scientific andTechnical Advisory Group on the update of the publication entitled“2009 UNISDR Terminology on Disaster Risk Reduction” by
December 2016, and that the outcome of its work be submitted tothe Assembly for its consideration and adoption.

For SFDRR’s monitoring on global targets
Open-ended intergovernmental expert working group on indicators andterminology relating to disaster risk reduction met 5 times in Geneva during
2015-2016ジュネーブで公式・非公式の5回の交渉

Tohoku University’s GCDS actively participated into the intergovernmental
process as a representative of the Government of JapanIn December 2017, UNISDR launched the Technical Guidance for Monitoringand Reporting on Progress in Achieving the Global Targets of the SFDRR

A representative of the GCDS from Tohoku University making apresentation on the occasion of the Open-ended intergovernmental
expert working group on indicators and terminology relating todisaster risk reduction - Geneva, Sept. 2015

A representative of the GCDS from Tohoku University making apresentation on the application of disaster loss and damage data- Bonn, December 2017

国連が作ったモニタリングのためのガイドライン

大きな災害の統計はあるが、より小さなものはカバーされにくい。保険でカバーされない途上国の被害統計は。。。

What are the lacking points of the existing database?
• Large-scale disaster are well reported while smallerscale ones are not

NatCatSERVICE

Large-scale disaster
Insurance: Developed countries

EM-DatMiddle-scale disaster
100 affected or 10 deaths

Missing Data!!

Small-scale disaster

主な災害被害統計の比較
DesInventar format

EM-DAT database

NatCatSERVICE

Sigma

Mostly Governments

CRED:

Munich Reinsurance

Swiss Re InstituteSome by NGO, Research Instituteetc.

Centre for Research on theEpidemiology of Disasters

87 countries230 countries listed but
double-counting Soviet
Union, Yugoslavia,Czechoslovakia, etc.

Not Identified※mainly developedcountries

31 countries

784,577 events

24,942 events

More than 28,000events

Not Identified

Depends on the country(Oldest record)

1990-Present

1980-Present

1970-Present

Disaster
Collected

All Disasters

Disasters which meet acertain criteria

Disasters with Humanor Economic loss

Natural catastrophes
and Man-madedisasters

Data Source

Authorized by theGovernment

Multiple Source

Insurance Companybased

News papers, direct
insurance andreinsurance periodicals

Ownership

Scope of thedatabase(Un agencies, Countries, Red Cross,Red Crescent, World Bank,Reinsurance, Media)

K.Moriyama et al, 2018

東北大学・災害研の災害統計グローバルセンターの取り組み

Global Centre forDisaster Statistics (GCDS)★Policy recommendationCountries★ Mainstreaming ofDisaster RiskReduction★Global Database on
Disaster Loss & Damage★Support Monitoringof SFDRR and SDGs

★ Scientific Analysisfor policy making★Innovative modules★ Technical Advice

Introduction
United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and theInternational Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS) atTohoku University jointly announced the establishment of the Global
Centre for Disaster Statistics (GCDS) in March 2015 during the Third
UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR) inSendai.
Voices of support and expectation to this initiative were received,including the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
Establishment
ceremony ofGCDS at theWCDRR

UN Secretary-General
Ban Ki-moon’s speechat Tohoku University
Symposium Forum heldin the WCDRR

1

今村・災害研所長

里見・東北大前総長 クラーク・UNDP元総裁・ 奥山・仙台前市長

ショウヤー・UNDP元危機管理部長 アクタール・前ESCAP事務局長

Objectives of the GCDS

被害データを集めて分析・国に使ってもらう

The GCDS contributes to sustainable development based on risk
informed policy making.
◼ Support the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) andcountries for monitoring the progress of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction and 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development◼ Provide scientific analysis and technical advice on their disaster loss anddamage data
◼ Provide policy advice to build capacities of national/local governments basedon their demands
Image of tools to visualize data
Examples from the DesInventar
system [right] and DIBI (Indonesiandisaster data and information)[left]

2

Detailed Scheme of the GCDS
Sendai Framework forDisaster Risk Reduction

UNDRR

UNContribution

IRIDeSUNDPInternational ResearchInstitute of Disaster
Science• Management(Operational support, Budgetallocation)• Research and analysis

Cooperation

UNDP

SupportBureau for Policy andProgramme Support• Technical advice• Quality assurance

Country Office• Support to developmentof national disasterdamage and loss
databases• Policy advice• Institutional capacity
development

Countries• Develop and utilize
national disasterdamage and loss
database[Sources: Sasaki and Ono(2018), Ono(2016)]

Economic and Social
Commission for Asiaand the Pacific

JICA

Japan International
Cooperation Agency

ICHARM

International Centre for
Water Hazard and Risk
ManagementADRC• Archive data
• Scientific analysis• Visualization of disaster
information with GIS• Research on innovative modules• Assist generating policy
Information recommendations

Global Database2030 Agenda for
Sustainable
Development
ESCAP

Cooperation

Global Centre forDisaster Statistics

Data

仙台モニタリングへの貢献

SupportAsia DisasterReduction Center

IRP

International Recovery
Platform

Private Sector• Fujitsu• Pacific Consultants

and so on.
3Annual Report ( White Paper on DRR )防災白書を各国に◼ White paper on DRR has been issued by the Cabinet Office of Japanannually based on the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Law in 1961.
This policy paper reviews national DRR policy taken in the previous
year supported by evidence, including disaster damage and loss data
supplied by various national agencies. It is circulated to all theparliamentarian members to generate improved policy (kaizen in DRR).
◼ Learning from this good practice, GCDS would propose National
Disaster Management Organizations (NDMOs) to generate a similar
review report. GCDS intends to provide basic analysis for the reportbased on the national damage and loss data. GCDS welcomes joint
work in this area with academia in each interested country as well.
5Analysis based on collected disaster loss data
被害データを使っての分析◼ Macro-economic analysis* One example of the analysis toevaluate the effect of pre-disasterinvestment◼ Analysis based ondisaggregated data
* Data disaggregated by social,demographic, and economic
characteristics

DR2AD model, developed by JICA,
to quantitatively estimate theeffect of pre-disaster investment toeconomic development
6<Reference: Results of Ishiwata and Yokomatsu (2018)>

Results of Case Study in Pakistan

Fig.

防災投資の最適解はGDPConsumption

GDP Growth by DRR level (Sample Path)

Fig. Consumption by DRR level (Sample Path)※ Source：Ishiwata and Yokomatsu (accepted, 2018)

Optimal percentage of DRR investment is approximately 3～5% of GDP (4~9 billion USD / year)
Copyright © Pacific Consultants Co., LTD.

25

How to integrate findings of science and technology into global policy making for resilience:
Tohoku University’s Strategy

東北大の戦略

どんなタマを撃ち込んだか
何ができたかThe former Tohoku University President Susumu Satomi greeting with the former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moonon the occasion of Tohoku University Symposium, titled “Our Message to the future ~ Lessons learned from the Great
East Japan Earthquake ~ on 15 March 2015

INPUTS to the negotiation process of the Sendai Framework for Disaster
Risk Reduction (1)1. Assisted the City of Sendai for the competition of hosting the third UN
World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction by offering our campus for
public events
撃ち込んだタマ2. Launched the “Preparatory Office for the UNWCDRR” in April 2014
3. Focused contents to be reflected in the final document:➢ 1. Setting common goals and targets in disaster risk reduction (DRR)➢ 2. Evidence-based policy making in DRR, including utilizing disaster loss
and damage statistics➢ 3. Lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami,
including Build Back Better concept
4. Developed a strategy to appeal those by identifying national andinternational venues
National venue: A few members of Tohoku University served as experts tothe national committee preparing for the third UN Conference on DRR
International venues: Next slide

INPUTS to the negotiation process of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (2)➢ 1. Setting common goals and targets in disaster risk reduction (DRR)

数値目標を入れることを目指した- Upstream discussion: Tohoku University attended an Expert Group Meeting by UNISDR in Vienna,Austria on 10-11 February 2014, insisting the inclusion of numerical targets to the new framework- This action led to the pre-zero draft of the new framework to include ‘X% reduction of human andeconomic losses’➢ 2. Evidence-based policy making in DRR, including utilizing disaster loss and damage statistics
国連の専門家会合を誘致- Tohoku University hosted two expert group meetings on disaster statistics with UNDP/UNESCAP➢ 3. Lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami, including Build Back Better
concept- Tohoku University organized numerous sessions on this topic at major UN meetings, including
準備会合などへの参加✓ Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction in Geneva, May 2013
✓ Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Bangkok, June 2014
✓ UN ECOSOC meeting in New York, July 2014
✓ Preparatory Meetings for the third UN World Conference on DRR in Geneva, July and November 2014

INPUTS during the third UN World Conference on DRR
国連防災世界会議中の撃ち込み➢ Organized 34 symposiums and seminars, 16booth exhibitions, 8 poster exhibitions, and 4
study tours.
➢ In both cases, the University's programaccounted for more than 10 percent of thetotal organized by domestic organizations, andapproximately 4,500 people participated in thesymposium and seminar, and approximately
4,000 people participated in the exhibition.
➢ 24 departments and bureaus within theuniversity participated in these projects

OUTPUTS

成果➢ 1. Setting common goals and targets in disaster risk reduction (DRR)✓ Yes, SFDRR set seven global targets to reduce disaster loss anddamage for the first time in history
7つのグローバルターゲットできた➢ 2. Evidence-based policy making in DRR, including utilizing disaster loss
and damage statistics
UNDPと災害統計グローバルセンターを作った

GCDS launching ceremony on 16 March, 2015

✓ Yes, Tohoku University and United Nations DevelopmentProgramme (UNDP) agreed to launch the Global Centre forDisaster Statistics to help monitor progress on the global targets➢ 3. Lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami,
including Build Back Better concept
ビルドバックベターを盛り込む✓ Yes, the concept of Build Back Better stemming from the lessons
learned from recovery in Tohoku was adopted in one of the fourpriority areas of the SFDRR➢ 4. A new initiative1st World Bosai Forum in 2017

✓ Proposed the World Bosai (Disaster Risk Reduction) Forum仙台・東北のために残すものを：世界防災フォーラムを創造日本の災害被害統計の課題
詳細なデータを公開していない
内閣府防災担当は過去に努力するも総務省の壁は厚い
理由：

都道府県に大変な業務を強いるわけにはいかない。オープンデータ・ポリシーに反する。
ICTを使えばすぐに解決する。プライバシーの問題も解決は可能。
FACT:
後発の中国の災害被害統計システムに負けている。世界を見据えた防災白書のようなものも作成している。
中国は、2030年の第4回国連防災世界会議をホストするかもしれない。学術界ではその雰囲気を感じた。どう付き合うか。

モニタリングの現在の課題
Annual Report 2020
➢ By the end of 2020, 143 Member and Observer States were reporting through the Sendai Framework
Monitoring system, augmented by a variety of online trainings. UNDRR compiled, analysed andsubmitted this dataset to UNDESA to inform a variety of UN processes and reports.
➢ Target (e) of the Sendai Framework. Through targeted support, normative guidance, advocacy, andpartnership, 101 Member States reported having national disaster risk reduction strategies alignedwith the Sendai Framework.
➢ UNDRR invested heavily in supporting, gathering and using disaster loss data in all regions andproposed solutions for reporting disaggregated data by hazard, location, sex, age, income anddisability.

➢ By December 2020, there were 120 countries and territories using the UNDRR managed DesInventar
disaster loss databases
ターゲット（e）は、2020年が締め切りであったが。。。

世界防災フォーラムの構想

世界経済フォーラムのGAC会議＠アラブ首長国連邦ドバイ・アブダビで2012－14年ごろに構想

世界水フォーラムもNGOが主体

国連では、日本のインプットは質はよくてもOne of many
地域バランス云々で出番は少ない。言葉の壁や地理も。
防災を世界に。産官学民連携で。東北の被災地の復興のためにも。

そして、国連防災世界会議を一発の打ち上げ花火にならないように。
何か残るモノを仙台に。しかし、復興のまっただ中でお金は出ない。
お金がなくてもできる何かを。。。。

Purpose1Create a venue to illuminate Japanese experiences on disaster risk
reduction and recovery process of the Tohoku Region, and to spinknowledge from disaster and weave wisdom of disaster risk reduction
into society

2

Focus on solution-oriented discussions on disaster risk reduction withconcrete examples provided by multi-stakeholders

3

Welcome disaster risk reduction experts as well as non-experts toexplore and develop business opportunities together

Express thanks for assistance to Tohoku
from all over the world
after the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

on March 11, 2011

世界防災フォーラムWBF 2017年

947 participantsfrom over 42 countries and regions

more than 10,000 domestic and international participantsjoined World Bosai Forum,
Bosai Kokutai 2017 and 2017 Bosai Industry Fair

Associated events:- Open Forum bySendai City(in Japanese)- Exhibitions of DRRtechnology

WBF 2019

1,000 registered participants
10,000 participants including citizens
50+ 90-minute oral sessions
100 posters
30 Flash-talk presentations
30 exhibition booths
Study tours and excursions to tsunami affected areas
An excursion goes to Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant
sites
A cultural event (cultural performance from the tsunamiaffected areas)2019 WBF: 60+ oral sessions

50－60個の90分セッションを開催

Examples:-How to achieve the Sendai Target E
How to adapt to climate changeHow to deal with stronger typhoons
Bosai and traditional and new media
DRR investment
Build back better
Lessons learned from Tohoku – bosai and recovery
How not to forget about lessons learned from disasters
What’s up in Fukushima?
Disaster damage and loss database
Cutting-edge bosai science
Bosai dialogue with 3 rectors from major universities in Tohoku
and moreAround 50+ Meeting Sessions

Session “Sustainable Development through DRR Investment”
Organizer: Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)

Poster Presentations:Flash Talk Presentations:Exhibitions:

Closing Session
Outcome document：
Chair’s Summary

3rd World Bosai Forum in 2021 was postponed to 2022 due to the COVID-19
Instead, World Bosai Walk Tohoku +10

2022年2月23日にいわきをスタート

10年の節目に被災地を福島・いわきから青森・八戸まで1000キロを歩いて、BBBを探す旅：世界発信
45

3. 防災における非政府・民間セクターの役割・重要性
政府の限界例）気候変動の交渉の行き詰まりをどう解決していくか
数年前の世界経済フォーラムの前振りの議論でのソリューション
世界の宗教リーダーにうったえる＋世界企業のリーダーにうったえる

COP26・グラスゴー 国での解決は限界。企業や自治体にボランティアでの自発的取り組みのグループを作って。。。

4. BOSAI-TECHに取り組む企業・自治体等に期待すること
東北大は世界にむけて取り組みを発表する舞台を作った
世界防災フォーラムで世界にむけて被災地から発信に挑戦してほしい
世界防災フォーラムは基盤が脆弱・産官学民で支援してほしい2030年に向けて戦略を練り始めた

東北大学災害科学国際研究所
防災実践推進部門
2030国際防災アジェンダ推進オフィス

東北大・卓越大学院
防災関連企業との連携
教育と研究
国際機関人事養成コースを模索中