Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: India
Project: Project for the Construction of Training Institute for Mumbai-Ahmedabad High
Speed Rail
Loan Agreement: September 15, 2017
Loan Amount: 10,453 million yen
Borrower: The President of India
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Railway Sector in India
The population of India has been growing rapidly. It jumped from 844 million in1991 to 1,002.9 million in 2001 and further to 1,210 million in 2011 and willcontinue to grow, according to the 2011 Census of India. Such a population
growth and the recent rapid economic growth of more than seven percent per
annum have been sending domestic passenger and freight traffic soaring. Thepassenger traffic rose about 70 percent from 2000 to 2016, while the freight traffic
surged some 130 percent during the same period, according to the Ministry ofRailways’ Indian Railways Year Book 2015-2016. The current track capacity is
only about 50 percent of the passenger and freight traffic demand projected for2032 on national average. Frequent delays in the train service also constitute amajor bottleneck for the smooth movement of people.
(2) Development Policies for the Railway Sector in India and the Priority of the Project
As it stands, private cars and buses account for some 85 percent of the traffic
between Mumbai--the capital of Maharashtra State and the second largest city inIndia--and Ahmedabad--which has recently been growing as a commercial andindustrial city in Gujarat State. These two states are experiencing economic
growth at a faster rate than the national economy, and their economies willcontinue to grow for more than three decades, according to the PlanningCommission of the Government of India. In India, higher income households are
more likely to resort to airplanes or other means of transportation that allow themto travel longer distances in a shorter amount of time. Expectations are high for
high-speed rail with mass transit and high-frequency transit capacities to play animportant role in meeting that demand. Under these circumstances, a demand
forecasting study that has been conducted for the Mumbai-Ahmedabad High
Speed Railway Project (“High Speed Railway Project”) in connection with the Joint
Feasibility Study for Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Railway Corridor (ODA loanaccount technical assistance) estimates that the passenger traffic demand will
increase fivefold by 2053 from the 2023 level, when the railway is scheduled to be
put into service.
In December 2009, the Ministry of Railways (MoR) of India announced the IndianRailways Vision 2020, which called for, among other things, constructing
high-speed rail for priority lines, including the Mumbai-Ahmedabad section, as
well as modernizing the existing lines and boosting their transport capacity. In a
joint Japan-India statement in December 2015, the two governments agreed thatthe Mumbai-Ahmedabad section will be developed with the use of Japanese highspeed rail technologies and experience and that, in this regard, detailed
consultations will be held so that financial and technical assistance will beprovided by Japan. As this will be the first high-speed railway in India, they also

confirmed the need to build a training institute designed to develop humanresources for operation and maintenance services before this section is put intoservice. (Although the construction of other priority lines has not been confirmed
yet, other donors have conducted pre-F/S and F/S on some of these plannedlines.)
The High Speed Rail Project makes for efficient passenger transport by boosting
passenger transport capacity through the construction of the line, the installmentof a fully-automated signal and communication system, and the introduction ofhigh-speed cars. Since it will be India’s first high-speed line, there is an urgent
need to develop human resources for the operation and maintenance of thefacilities in parallel with their construction, Though there are training institutes
under the purview of the MoR, they are incapable of teaching both physical andnon-physical aspects of technologies for running trains at the operational speed ofmore than 300 km/h. Such technologies need to be taught otherwise. The Projectfor the Construction of Training Institute for Mumbai-Ahmedabad High Speed Rail(“Project”) is designed to construct a facility for training personnel who canengage in the High Speed Rail Project. As noted earlier, it is one of the essential
projects for the operation of the High Speed Rail Project, which is defined as apriority undertaking in the Indian Railways Vision 2020 among other nationalpolicies.
(3) Japan and JICA’s Policy and Operations in the Railway Sector
Japan’s Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) identifies enhancing
connectivity as one of the priority areas of assistance. It states to the effect that,with a view to de-bottlenecking the infrastructure constraints to investment andgrowth, Japan will support the development of a transportation hub and network
infrastructure as well as electricity and other infrastructure to strengthen
connectivity among major industrial cities and economic zones, and also among
regions in the country. JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2012) states
that, in order to eliminate economic bottlenecks, assistance is necessary tosupport the development of trunk railways (which may include high-speed rail andfreight transport), urban rail, roads, ports, and other infrastructure that willcontribute to promoting regional economic development, streamlining logistics,
and increasing investment by foreign capital, chiefly in areas where JICA’s
assistance will likely have a greater impact: special economic zones, economic
corridors, and other industrial clusters located in India’s six major metropolitan
areas and along the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC). The Project isconsistent with the policy and analysis above. It is worth adding that, by July 2017,
Japan made a total of 53 ODA loan commitments in the transport sector in India,
totaling 1,850.2 billion yen. These include five commitments, totaling 334.3 billion
yen, for the Dedicated Freight Corridor Project (Phases 1 and 2), whichconstitutes a core element of DMIC. The plan and design of the training institute to
be developed under the Project, as well as its human resource development plan,
was formulated under the Joint Feasibility Study for Mumbai-Ahmedabad High
Speed Railway Corridor (ODA loan account technical assistance).
(4) Other Donors’ Activity
The World Bank has supported the Mumbai Urban Transport Project (thedevelopment of roads and suburban railways) and the Eastern Dedicated FreightCorridor Project. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is providing institutionaland other assistance to India’s railway sector, especially for organizational
reforms of Indian Railways. For urban railways, the ADB extended 250 million

dollars in aid to Bangalore Metro in March 2012 and 176 million dollars in aid toJaipur Metro in May 2014.
(5) Necessity of the Project
The Project, which is designed to construct a training institute for developing
human resources for the operation and maintenance services for the High Speed
Rail Project, is consistent with the development issues and policies of India, aswell as Japan’s and JICA’s assistance policy and analysis. It is also expected tocontribute to attaining Goal 9 of the SDGs. Therefore, JICA’s support for theimplementation of the Project is much needed.
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to enhance the structure for training personnel
responsible for the operation and maintenance services for the High Speed Rail
Project by constructing a training institute in the city of Vadodara in Gujarat State,
thereby contributing to smooth operation and maintenance services for the High
Speed Rail Project as well as to safe and comfortable transit services.
(2) Project Site/Target Area
Vadodara, Gujarat State(3) Project Components
1) A training line with slab track (international competitive bidding (tied))
2) A training building, a building for meals and other services, training equipment,
and training facilities (excluding the training line with slab track (international
competitive bidding (tied))
3) An accommodation building (local competitive bidding)4) Consulting services (construction supervision; technology transfer, etc., fordeveloping the management capacity of the executing agency) directcontract)(4) Estimated Project Cost (Loan Amount)
12,514 million yen (loan amount: 10,453 million yen)(5) ScheduleSeptember 2017 - September 2020 (37 months in total). The Project is considered
completed when the facilities are put into service (scheduled for September2020).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: The President of India
2) Guarantor: none
3) Executing Agency: National High Speed Rail Corporation Limited (NHSRCL)
4) Operation and Maintenance System: NHSRCL will operate and maintain thecompleted institute and provide training there. Before and sometime after thehigh speed rail is put into operation, Japan will provide multiple long-term
experts as necessary. The idea is to complement any training activities that
may be inadequate due to insufficient working experience on the part ofNHSRCL in this field, including the lack of competent instructors for moreeffective training. The central government has allocated a sufficient budget to
the MoR, the supervising body and the largest investor of NHSRCL, for theProject. This budget will also cover the operation, maintenance, and training
costs as these activities are essential for the safe and timely implementationof the High Speed Rail Project--a national development project--leaving nosignificant financial concerns.

(7)Environmental and Social Consideration/Poverty Reduction/Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Consideration(i) Category: C(ii) Reason for Categorization
The Project is deemed to have the minimum adverse impact on theenvironment as defined by the JICA Guidelines for Environmental andSocial Considerations, promulgated on April 1, 2010.
2) Promotion of Poverty Reduction
None in particular3) Promotion of Social Development (e.g. Gender Perspective, Measure for
Infectious Diseases Including HIV/AIDS, Participatory Development,Consideration for the Person with Disability, etc.)
As many of the workers who will engage in the Project will likely live alone
during the construction work, a high risk of HIV/AIDS infection will be likely.
For this reason, a plan for HIV prevention activities will be put in place. The
contractors will be obliged to take measures in line with such a plan.

(8) Collaboration with Other Donors
None in particular(9) Other Important Issues
Tied procurement is part of the terms and conditions of the Project. The twogovernments have agreed that the Project will be implemented by taking
advantage of Japan’s technology and experience.
4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicators)A) Outcomes
Indicator

Baseline
Target (2023)(Actual value in [Expected value when the high2017)
speed rail is put into service*]

1. Cumulative total of training participants
Station operation and management－390

Train operation (driver)－100

Train operation (conductor)－

168

Stock maintenance－93

Stock manufacturing－290

Civil engineering and track maintenance－257

Overhead contact lines－165

Signal and communication system

－165

－

10－

90

System maintenance
2. Usage of training equipment andaccommodation building (annual average)(%)

B) Impact
Indicator

Baseline(Actual valuein 2017)

Target (2023)[Expected value when thehigh speed rail is put intoservice*]

Percentage of training participants whocome to provide services related to theHigh Speed Rail Project(providers/participants/year)－100* The target is set for the time when the high speed rail is put into service,scheduled for 2023, because this is when the effects of the Project will manifest
themselves in the performance of the training of necessary operation andmaintenance personnel.
2) Internal Rate of Return
The internal rate of return is not calculated because the training itself will
generate no return and because the benefit of the training is difficult toquantify.
(2) Qualitative Effects
Raised awareness of the employees engaged in the high-speed rail between
Mumbai and Ahmedabad about the safety and accuracy of the services.
5. External Factors and Risk ControlThe plan to hire new and additional employees is developed in accordance withthe mid- to long-term business forecasts of NHSRCL.

6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
The ex-post and other evaluations of the Mulawarman University (UNMUL)
Development Project and the project entitled “Development of Faculty of Medicine
and Health Sciences of Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University,” both of whichwere conducted in Indonesia, indicate that the advanced equipment procured in theseprojects remains underused, meaning that experience and skills have not been
accumulated, resulting in technical insufficiency.
The Project also plans to procure advanced equipment such as driving simulators, inaddition to the construction of the institute, including the training building. Whileaccurately assessing the actual and potential usage of such equipment, the Projectwill support the development of the plan to hire NHSRCL employees who will serve as
instructors as well as training plans. It will also provide capacity building training forsuch employees. In these processes, the Project will build on two projects that werelaunched earlier as ODA loan account technical assistance: the Assistance for
Formulation of Technical Regulations regarding the High Speed Railway Project, andthe Detailed Design Study on the High Speed Railway Construction Project in India.

7. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
1) Cumulative total of actual training participants (station operation andmanagement)2) Cumulative total of actual training participants (train operation (driver))3) Cumulative total of actual training participants (train operation (conductor))
4) Cumulative total of actual training participants (stock maintenance)5) Cumulative total of actual training participants (stock manufacturing)6) Cumulative total of actual training participants (civil engineering and trackmaintenance)7) Cumulative total of actual training participants (overhead contact lines)
8) Cumulative total of actual training participants (signal and communicationsystem)9) Cumulative total of actual training participants (system maintenance)10) Usage of training equipment and accommodation building (annual averagebased on monthly usage) (%)11) Percentage of training participants who come to provide services related tothe High Speed Rail Project (providers/participants/year)(2) Timing2023 (when the high speed rail is put into service)(The target is set for the time when the high speed rail is put into service,scheduled for 2023, because this is when the effects of the Project will manifest
themselves in the performance of the training of necessary operation andmaintenance personnel.)