Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department, JICA
1. Basic Information
Country: India
Project Name: Project for Sustainable Catchment Forest Management in Tripura
Loan Agreement：October 29, 2018
2. Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Forest Sector/Tripura State in India
Due to the forest conservation activities of the Government of India, theforest area in India has been improved year by year since 1997, and increased to21.5% (Indian State of Forest Report 2017) in 2017. Although forest area hasbeen increasing in recent years, forest degradation has occurred due todevelopment projects and an increase in forest utilization pressure, and theoverall proportion of open forest (density of crown cover is between 10% and40%) in the total forest area in India reached 42.7% (in 2017) (Indian State ofForest Report 2017). As the deterioration of the forest progresses, living
necessities such as fuelwood or forest resources as a source of income become
insufficient, which directly threatens residents’ lives. In addition, forest
deterioration causes a reduction of water source recharge function, influences
the intake of living water and the yield of agricultural crops, and may cause
disasters such as floods. Since this situation has become remarkable due to a
recent increase in forest utilization pressure, rehabilitation of the degradation offorests, which have close relations with residents’ lives, and conservation of theforests are urgent tasks.
About 73% of the area of Tripura State located in the mountainous region innortheastern India (Indian State of Forest Report 2017) is covered by forests,
making it a state rich in forest resources. The population is 3.67 million (in 2011),
which represents a 15% increase from 2001 to 2011. More than 70% of thepopulation of the state (Census of India, 2011) lives in the vicinity of forest areas,including non-urban areas, and about 42% (in 2011) of the labor force is engaged
in the agricultural sector including forestry, making forestry and agriculture majorindustries for the state. Traditionally, shifting cultivation is carried out especially inforest land, which is one of the limited agricultural options for residents under thecondition where irrigation facilities are not developed. Furthermore, firewood isused for cooking in more than 90% of households in rural areas (Energy Sourceof Indian Households for Cooking and Lighting, 2011-12), making the forests
indispensable resources in daily life. On the other hand, a delay in the economic
development is one of the challenges because the state has limited people’s
movement and transportation of goods due to still developing infrastructure in
addition to poor accessibility from other states. Especially around the forest land
where the employment opportunities are limited in relation to the population
increase, poverty is further exacerbated. For this reason, the necessity ofensuring and sustainably managing forest resources as a means of living andlivelihood has been increasing, but the recovery of forests has not been catching
up with the excessive use of the forest resources, consequently aggravating theliving environment of residents.
Under such circumstances, an ODA loan “Tripura Forest EnvironmentalImprovement and Poverty Alleviation Project” (hereinafter referred to as “pastproject”), which was implemented from 2007 to 2017, had the main objective ofpoverty alleviation among villagers that was an urgent task at that time. Thus,
support was provided to restore the forest land around the villages where thepopulation concentrates while focusing on improving their livelihoods. As a result,
together with the effect of other projects carried out by the state government, thedense forest area in the state increased by 26,100 ha from 2011 to 2015, and theproportion of households living in poverty in relation to the population of the state
decreased from 34.4% in 2006 to 14.1% (Reserve Bank of India, 2012). In
addition, over 1,500 self-help groups were organized, jobs for 20 million
person/day were created, and 52,353 ha of afforestation was conducted in thetarget area of the past project.
However, in the Tripura State, due to shifting cultivation which is still carriedout in 8% of the land (Department of Agriculture, Government of Tripura), theforest area is still decreasing, and 16,400 ha of the forest were lost from 2015 to2017 (Indian State of Forest Report 2017). In fact, because it is impossible toenforce the prohibition and restriction of the shifting cultivation to residents whoare permitted to use the forest land according to “The Scheduled Tribes andOther Traditional Forest Dwellers Act, 2006” in addition to shifting cultivation
being a part of the residents’ customs, there is concern that the forest area andthe quality will be further reduced. The rate of decrease in the forest cover in
Tripura during the above period is the third highest figure in India. In particular,
forests in the catchment areas provide ecosystem functions such as water source
recharge and prevention of sediment discharge, but some areas exhibit
discharge of 80 tons of earth and sand annually due to deforestation and forest
degradation (Department of Agriculture, Government of Tripura), leading todeclining land productivity and instability of residents’ lives and livelihoods. In
order to deal with such situations, it is necessary to reduce the forest utilizationpressure by promoting diversification of a means of livelihood offorest-dependent residents, together with forest management as well as
appropriate water and soil conservation activities to conserve catchment area inforests. Those interventions require a comprehensive approach that was notaddressed in the past project, especially in the upstream of the catchment area inforests where shifting cultivation is being carried out. In the “Common Guidelines
for Watershed Development 2008”, the Government of India also points out theimportance of forests in the upstream of the catchment area as a source of waterand seeks mutually complementary implementation of the approach to promotesustainable management of forests, conservation of water and soil, andimprovement in livelihoods of residents living in the forest land. Because theirresidential area spreads into the downstream of the catchment areas, such an
approach to conservation of catchment forests is expected to ensure thesustainability of activities in the downstream areas where the past project was
mainly conducted.
(2) Japan and JICA’s Forest Sector/Tripura State Cooperation Policy and thePositioning of this ProjectJapan’s Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016) states that
support for sustainable and inclusive growth is positioned as a priority area, and it
will work on a program to increase the income of the poor and promote support
for the forest sector to address the environmental/climate change issues. Also,JICA Country Analysis Paper for India (March 2018) mentions the necessity ofcountermeasures that can lead to facilitation of proper utilization of naturalresources and proper conservation and utilization of forest resources with the aim
for inclusive growth in rural areas, and this project is consistent with thesepolicies and analyses. Among all ODA loans to India, there were 26 loan approvalcases totaling 257.7 billion yen to the forest sector as of October 2018. Also,
there is a track record of support to the Tripura State through the past project(2007 – 2017).
(3) Other Donors’ Activities
In India, the World Bank and the European Commission, etc. support the“Forest Management Project” and the Global Environment Facility supports thepreparation of a biodiversity conservation plan and its action plan. In Tripura State,KfW, German government-owned development bank, conducted sustainable
forest resource management activities under the “Indo-German Development
Cooperation Project” (2009 – 2017).
3. Project Description(1) Project Objective
This project aims to improve quality of forest in the targeted catchment bysustainable forest management, soil and moisture conservation and livelihood
development, thereby contributing to development of forest ecosystem services
and livelihood improvement of forest dependent communities in the State ofTripura.
(2) Project Site/Target Area: Tripura State(3) Project Components
1) Sustainable forest management (preparation of Beat Forest Basic Plan,
afforestation in catchment areas, raising seedlings, etc.)
2) Soil and moisture conservation (construction of check dams, etc.)
3) Livelihood development activities (marketing support for Non Timber Forest
Products, etc.)
4) Institutional strengthening (such as capacity development training forexecuting agency’s staff, joint forest management associations, and self-helpgroups)
5) Consulting services (implementation management, etc.)(4) Estimated Project Cost
16,238 million yen (of which, the ODA Loan amount is 12,287 million yen)(5) Implementation ScheduleExpected to be implemented from October 2018 – October 2028 (121 months intotal). The project will be completed upon completion of all activities (in October2028).
(6) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: President of India
2) Guarantor: None
3) Executing agency: Forest Department, Government of Tripura
4) Operation and Maintenance agency: Regarding the activities directly
managed by the Forest Department, the Department will continue to carry out
the operation and maintenance of the activities by taking budgetarymeasures after the project completion. Regarding the activities carried out bythe residents, the residents will conduct the operation and maintenance of theactivities after the project completion. In order to enable continuous activities
by the residents, the Project Management Unit provides residents withcapacity development training for maintenance.
(7) Collaboration and Division of Roles with Other Projects and Donors
1) Japan’s assistance activities: None
2) Assistance activities by other donor agencies, etc.: The Forest Department
cooperates with other state government-related organizations and carries out
planning and implementation of activity plans according to the needs ofresidents.
(8) Environmental and Social Consideration/Poverty Reduction/Social Development
1) Environmental and Social Consideration(i) Category: FI(ii) Reason for Categorization: According to the JICA Guidelines forEnvironmental and Social Considerations (proclaimed in April 2010),
sub-projects cannot be specified prior to the loan approval by JICA, andsuch subprojects may have environmental impacts.
(iii) Others/Monitoring: In this project, the executing agency shallcategorize sub-projects based on the national legal system in India andJICA guidelines and take measures required for relevant categories whilereceiving assistance from Consultant hired by ODA loan. Note that thesub-project categorized as category A is not included in this project.
2) Cross-cutting Issues: In this project, joint forest management committees areformed by local residents and carry out sustainable forest management, soil
and moisture conservation activities, and livelihoods development activities
in a participatory manner in which residents participate in the planning
process. In addition, it is expected to reduce 280,651 tons of CO2 emissions
per year, contributing to climate change (mitigation) measures.
3) Gender Category: GI(S)--Gender Informed (Significant) (Gender Activity
Integration Project)<Description of activities and reason for classification>:
After the project commences, gender awareness training will be implemented
for officials in the Forestry Department, community committees, etc. Activities
based on gender perspective are also conducted through collecting
information on gender and analyzing the issues. Moreover, livelihood
improvement activities are to be carried out by self-help groups organized
mainly by women, so the intentions of women are reflected in the project
activities easily.
(9) Other Important Issues: None in particular

4. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Performance Indicators (Operation and Effect Indicators)
Target (2030) (Note 2)
Baseline[Expected valueIndicator(Actual value
2 years after projectin 2017)
completion]
Plantation area (ha)042,000
Survival rate of trees planted by the Project(Note 1)80(%)
Ratio of households having accessibility to(Note 1)
100
water in the target villages (%)
The ratio of soil moisture in forest of project(Note 1)10target area (%)
Transition of annual household income in the(Note 1)
50
project target area (%)(Note 1) The original data of the above indicators is collected by baseline survey.
(Note 2) The target shall be reviewed based on detailed activity plans and baseline survey.

(2)
(3)

Qualitative Effects: Conservation of forest ecosystems, social participation ofwomen, etc.
Internal Rate of Return
Based on the conditions indicated below, the economic internal rate of return(EIRR) of the Project will be 14.5%. Since this project has no income for theexecuting agency throughout the project implementation period, the financial
internal rate of return (FIRR) is not calculated.
[EIRR]
Cost: Project cost, operation and maintenance expenses (excluding tax)
Benefits: Income from Non Timber Forest Products, income from livelihood
development activities, greenhouse gas fixation
Project Life: 50 years

5. Preconditions / External Factors(1) Preconditions: None in particular(2) External Factors: Aggravation of political and economic situations in the areas
surrounding the subject of the project and large-scale natural disasters do notoccur.
6. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
From the results of ex-post evaluation, etc. of “Gujarat Forestry Development
Project” for India, important lessons are acquired that it is necessary to encourage
local residents to participate in the preparation of a document of detailed activity plansin the target villages as well as the selection of activities based on the planningdocument so that the project contents are based on the needs of residents, because
participation in sustainable forest management by residents’ associations after thecompletion of the project greatly influences the achievement of the project effect;
therefore, it is essential to develop the capacity of on-site forest officers’ regardingmethod of dialogue with local residents and the adjustment methods regarding
residents’ consultations.
In this project, sustainable forest management, soil and moisture conservation
activities, and livelihoods development activities are implemented through residents’committees, but it shall be noted that capacity development training, etc. regarding theparticipatory forest management by residents is implemented for on-site forest officers,in addition to encouraging active involvement of local residents from the planning stage,
so that smooth project implementation can be facilitated. In the capacity developmenttraining, manuals and guidelines prepared in the past project are reviewed and thelessons learned in the project will be utilized to implement effective training.
7. Evaluation Results
This project is considered to be consistent with the development policy of theGovernment of India and the policy of Tripura State, and the cooperation
policy/analysis of Japan and JICA, and is also considered to contribute to Goal 15 of
the SDGs, which stipulates the sustainable management of the forests and theprevention of biodiversity loss; therefore, it is highly necessary to support theimplementation of the project.
8. Plan for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators to be Used
Same as 4. (1) - (3)(2) Timing of the Next Evaluation
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after project completion
END