Japanese ODA Loan
Ex-Ante Evaluation (for Japanese ODA Loan)
South Asia Division 1, South Asia Department
Japan International Cooperation Agency
１．Name of the Project(1) Country: India(2) Project: Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link Project (III)(3) Project Site / Target Area: Mumbai Metropolitan Region, State ofMaharashtra（Total population: about 18 million（2011 India Census））
Loan Agreement: February 27, 2023
２．Background and Necessity of the Project(1) Current State and Issues of the Road Sector/Area and the Priority of theProject in India
In recent years, in India, while urbanization has progressed rapidly, publictransport infrastructure has not been fully developed, and therefore, traffic
congestion has become increasingly serious in urban areas, hindering economicdevelopment. In India, roads are responsible for 85.2% of passenger transport
and 62.9% of freight transport, and the Three-Year National Action Plan (April
2017 to March 2020) formulated by the National Institution for Transforming India(NITI Aayog) cites transport as the top priority for achieving economic
development, stating that the government will work to develop transport
infrastructure, including roads.
Mumbai and its vicinities constitute India’s largest urban area with a populationof some 18 million (as of 2011), and Mumbai, its center, is one of the world’s mostdensely populated cities (population density: 20,694 persons/km²). In addition,with the rapid urbanization in recent years, the number of cars registered in theCity increased sharply from 1.39 million in 2006 to 2.82 million in 2016 (source:Ministry of Road Transport and Highways’ Road Transport Year Book (2015-16)).
Taking into consideration that there was little room for further development in
Mumbai as it is located at the tip of a peninsula, the state government ofMaharashtra has transferred industries located in Mumbai to Navi Mumbai,
which is situated on the other side of Mumbai Bay, and attracted new industries
there in an effort to promote wider economic development in the urban area. At
the same time, it has worked to expand the Jawaharlal Nehru Port, which handles

one of the largest amounts of container freight in India (5.68 million TEU (202122); source: Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust’s website) and advanced urban
development projects, including the development of economic special districts
and the construction of a new Navi Mumbai airport which is scheduled to becompleted in December 2024. However, the only means of transport between
Mumbai and Navi Mumbai consists of one road and one railway, both of which
go around the bay, and the low connectivity between the two cities is becoming
an issue to be addressed, and this problem is expected to become even more
serious in the future.
For this reason, the Comprehensive Transport Study for the Mumbai
Metropolitan Region (2008), which presented a vision for transport plans in theMumbai metropolitan area, states that the Mumbai Trans-Harbour Link Project(hereinafter referred to as "the Project"), which links Mumbai and Navi Mumbai
via a marine road, should be implemented early to solve the problem describedabove, viewing the Project as one that is essential for promoting economic growthin the Mumbai metropolitan area. In addition, construction of the Project began inMarch 2018, and the marine road portion of the Project is still underway, withcompletion scheduled for September 2023.
(2) Japan’s and JICA’s Cooperation Policy and Operations in the Road
Sector/Area
The Country Assistance Policy for India (March 2016), which consideredestablishment of closer connectivity as a priority area, stated that JICA would
support development of transport infrastructure that provides hubs and networksof transport to establish closer connectivity between major industrial cities,
between economic zones, and between regions. It also considered enhancementof competitive industrial power as a priority area, stating that JICA would help
developing important infrastructure such as high-standard roads. In its Country
Analysis Paper (March 2018), JICA viewed development of high-productivity
industries as a major development task, emphasizing that establishment of better
connectivity was required in order to improve logistics and the movement ofpeople, and the Project is in accordance with these policies and analysis.
Furthermore, the Project aims at establishing better connectivity with Navi
Mumbai where urban development is progressing and other areas by building amarine road to link central Mumbai on the peninsula to Navi Mumbai on the otherside of Mumbai Bay in order to promote economic development in Maharashtra’s
Mumbai metropolitan area. In addition, the "Transportation" section of JICA'sGlobal Agenda also emphasizes the importance of road improvements tointernational ports, which are the hubs of logistics, in order to eliminate
bottlenecks in urban areas and "build a global network," and the Project isconsistent with these policies and analyses.
Records of Japanese ODA loans for India indicate that by the end of January2023, a total of 78 projects worth ¥3,259.2 billion had been approved in thetransport sector. This includes 21 projects worth ¥628.5 billion in the road andbridge sector.
(3) Other Donors’ Activities
The World Bank carried out the Mumbai Urban Transport Project to DevelopState Roads and Suburban Railways in Mumbai City (Approved in 2002; US$542million) and Phase 2 of the Project (approved in 2010; US$430 million). The AsianDevelopment Bank has supported state road construction in other states,including the State Road Development Project in the state of Karnataka(approved in 2010: US$305 million) and the State Road Development Project inthe state of Rajasthan (approved in 2017: US$500 million).
３．Project Description(1) Project Description① Project Objective
The objective of the Project is to improve connectivity in Mumbai Metropolitan
Region by constructing the Mumbai Trans Harbour Link connecting Mumbai withNavi Mumbai, thereby contributing to mitigation of traffic congestion andpromoting regional economic development.
② Project Components
1) Road on the sea: three lanes on each side, about 22 km in length,
superstructure work (including a 4 km extension of the bridge consistingof a PC girder bridge and steel composite deck slab bridge),2)
3)

substructure and foundation work (pile bent and cast in place),
Approach roads, connectors to the major highways, related facilities (tollgates, management facilities, etc.),
Road safety facilities and intelligent transport systems (ITSs), such as

an electronic toll collection system (ETC) and control center,4) Consulting services: outline design, bidding assistance, and supervision
for construction work
(2) Estimated Project Cost

323,396 million Yen (Japanese ODA loan (for the tranche III): 30,755
million Yen)
(3) Schedule
March/2017- September /2025 (103 months)
The commencement of facilities being put into use (September 2023) is
considered as the completion of the Project.
(4) Project Implementation Structure1) Borrower: Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA)
2) Guarantor: President of India
3) Executing Agency: MMRDA
4) Operation and Maintenance System: After the completion of the Project,
operation and maintenance will be outsourced to private business
operators under the supervision of MMRDA, and the private company is
expected to be assigned thorough international competitive bidding.
(5) Collaboration and Sharing of Roles with Other Donors
1) Japan’s Activity: N/A
2) Other Donor’s Activity: N/A(6) Environmental and Social Consideration① Category: A② Reason for Categorization: The Project falls into the road and bridge
sector, and has the characteristics of a project that easily affects theenvironment and society in the JICA Guidelines for Environmental andSocial Considerations (“JICA Guidelines;” promulgated in April 2010).
③ Environmental Permit: Indian domestic laws do not require thecompilation of reports on environmental impact assessments (EIA)
and their approval, but the reports compiled by MMRDA wereapproved by the Agency in November 2015. Clearance for the CoastalRegulation Zone (CRZ) was obtained from the Ministry of Environment,
Forest, and Climate Change in January 2016.
④ Anti-Pollution Measures: During construction work, the contractors willtake measures to reduce effects on the air, noise, vibration, etc. mainly
by spraying water and using low-noise construction equipment. Afterthe road starts to be put into use, MMRDA will work with theenvironmental authorities of the Maharashtra state government to takemeasures to reduce air pollution, noise, and vibration, mainly bycontrolling land use along the road and installing noise-blocking walls,

and thus, air pollution, noise, and vibration have been kept within therange that meets the Indian environmental standards.
⑤ Natural Environment: Part of the road constructed by the Project runs
through Mahul-Sewri Creek, which is within the important bird areas
designated by BirdLife International, but ever since the road built inTranche 1&2 started to be put into use, there has been no particularchange in the population size of birds, and it has been confirmed thatbirds were continuously pecking at food around the construction site.
Judging from this, the Project does not have significant effects on thehabitat for lesser flamingoes and other birds, and effects on the naturalenvironment can be reduced by adopting the type of bridge that takes
the needs of birds into consideration and taking conciliatory
approaches such as sound-insulating walls. Although 47 ha ofmangrove forests was planned to be felled in the areas where bridgepiers are to be installed and ground approach roads are to be built,
only the minimum necessary 16 ha was subsequently cut down. The
plantation by the state forest bureau of mangroves in about 200 ha ofsubstitute areas, approximately four times the above-planned area ofcutovers, is done.
⑥ Social Environment: The Project involves resettlement of 1,088
residents in 231 households and the economic resettlement of 66
households, and they are being relocated in accordance with the planworked out so that it is based on Indian domestic laws and theMaharashtra state government’s resident relocation policy and isapproved by the executing agency and meets the JICA Guidelines. It
also involves the acquisition of 108 ha of land, and 106 ha of land
owned by the City & Industrial Development Corporation ofMaharashtra (CIDCO) has been transferred from the Corporation toMMRDA with the acquisition by CIDCO of the remaining 1.8 ha of land
under way and is expected to be completed by the end of February
2023. Compensation will be given for the acquired land based on theamounts equivalent to replacement costs in accordance with theagreement with landowners. In the consultations with residents, theyexpressed opinions about the places and distance of resettlement, anda basic agreement was obtained from them mainly throughexplanations by MMRDA about the provision of relocation sites, andresidents have not expressed particular objections to the Project.
Moreover, since project implementation is expected to have someeffects on the livelihoods of some fishers in Mumbai Bay, MMRDA
worked out a compensation policy and explained it to them. They did
not raise strong objections against it.
⑦ Other/Monitoring: During construction work, the contractors will takemeasures to reduce effects on the air, noise, vibration, etc. mainly by
spraying water and using low-noise construction equipment. After theroad starts to be put into use, MMRDA will work with the environmental
authorities of the Maharashtra state government to take measures toreduce air pollution, noise, and vibration, mainly by controlling land use
along the road and installing noise-blocking walls, and thus, air
pollution, noise, and vibration will be kept within the range that meetsthe Indian environmental standards.
(7) Cross-Sectoral Issues① Measures against infectious disease such as HIV/AIDS: HIV/AIDS control
measures for construction workers are implemented by contractors during
the construction phase. In addition, as a part of its efforts to prevent thespread of COVID-19 infection, the executing agency has agreed to
implement a list of measures (36 in total) during the formulation andimplementation of the project, and clarified the required activities, such as
the development work environments (including preparing epidemic
prevention equipment and promoting the code of conduct), supervision
with respect to epidemic prevention, and awareness-raising campaigns.
The executing agency is supposed to make quarterly reports with respect
to the implementation statuses of the measures so as to ensure that theimpact of COVID-19 is being carefully watched and the executing agency
has flexibly and appropriately implemented the measures throughout theproject implementation period.
(8) Gender Category: GI (S) (gender activity integration project)<Details of Activities/Reason for Categorization>
The Project has separate restrooms and break rooms for men and womenin order to create a more comfortable working environment for women atconstruction sites.
(9) Other Important Issues: N/A４. Targeted Outcomes(1) Quantitative Effects
1) Outcomes (Operation and Effect Indicators)

Indicator

Baseline(Actual value inTarget (2025)[Expected value two2015)

years after projectcompletion]-47,400

61 (Note 3)

16

Number of passengers (1,000persons/year) (Note 1)

046,078

Freight volume (1,000 tons/year)(Note 2)

013,512

Average annual traffic volume(PCU/day)Travel time (minutes)
Sewri-Chirle sector during peakhours(Using ordinary roads via theVashi bridge)(Note 1) The number is calculated based on the average number of passengers
by vehicle type (Based on the cooperative preliminary survey
conducted in January 2017, the number is set at 2.6 persons forstandard cars and 37.2 persons for buses, and it is assumed that itis one person for trucks).
(Note 2) (Since no similar survey has been carried out) The freight volume iscalculated based on maximum loads by truck type (1 ton for smalltrucks and 15 tons for large or multi-axis trucks)(Note 3) Actual value(2) Qualitative Effects
Expected qualitative effects include improved traffic congestion in the Mumbai
metropolitan area, greater convenience provided by ensuring that people andvehicles can travel within an expected standard time, and economic developmentin the Mumbai metropolitan area and Navi Mumbai(3) Internal Rate of Return
Based on the assumptions listed below, the economic internal rate of return(EIRR) for the Project is 14.5%, and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) is1.3%.

【EIRR】
Cost：Project (Taxes, price-escalated, excluding administrative expenses),
operation and maintenance, and land acquisition costs (all costs do notinclude taxes)
Benefit：Driving cost reduction effects and travel time reduction effects
Project Life：32 years【FIRR】
Cost：Project, operation and maintenance, and land acquisition costs
Benefit：Fare revenue
Project Life：32 years
５. External Factors and Risk Control(1) Preconditions: N/A(2) External Factors: N/A
６. Lessons Learned from Past Projects
One lesson learned mainly from the ex-post evaluation of the Rehabilitationand Maintenance of Bridges along Arterial Roads Project, a Japanese ODA loan
for the Republic of the Philippines, is that by confirming the appropriateness ofthe construction period while taking rainy and dry seasons into account, theexecuting agency and consultants can complete construction work during anappropriate construction period and minimize the effects of natural disasters on
the Project.
In the Project, based on the lesson cite above, an agreement has been reachedwith the executing agency so that the construction schedule is set taking intoconsideration the rainy season in Mumbai when the precipitation rises sharply.
The Project has been implemented according to the schedule.
７. Evaluation Results
The Project contributes to promotion of regional economic development in theMumbai metropolitan area where many Japanese businesses operate. In
addition, improved connectivity between Mumbai and Navi Mumbai is expected
to indirectly benefit Japanese businesses whose bases are located in Navi
Mumbai. The necessity of supporting in carrying out the Project is high because
the Project is in accordance with the Indian government’s tasks and development
policy as well as the aid policy of Japan and JICA and is expected to contributeto SDG’s Goal 8 “Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth,full and productive employment and decent work for all”, 9 “Build resilient
infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and fosterinnovation”, 11 “Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient andsustainable” and 13 “Take urgent action to combat climate change and itsimpacts”.
８. Plan for Future Evaluation（１）Indicators to be Used
As indicated in Sections 4.
（２）Future Evaluation Schedule
Ex-post evaluation: 2 years after the project completion
END