Ex-ante Evaluation
1. Name of the ProjectCountry: People’s Republic of China
Project: Higher Education Project (Regional Vitalization, Market Economy Reform Support, andEnvironmental Conservation) (Liaoning, Hebei, and Hainan Provinces)(Loan Agreement: June 23, 2006; Loan Amount: 14,700 million yen; Borrower: The Government ofthe People’s Republic of China)
2. Necessity and Relevance of JBIC’s Assistance
In China, the Open and Reform has since 1978 brought about the transition to a market economy, rapid
economic development, and associated environmental problems. This became even truer with China’saccession to the WTO. Against this background, it is becoming necessary to strengthen education andresearch activities related to market rules and environmental problems. In addition, regional economic
disparities have become visible, necessitating regional economic vitalization in less developed regions.
Concerning these regions, improvement of higher education is also needed in terms of both quantityand quality to meet the increased demand for higher education following the spread of primary andsecondary education (the higher education enrollment rate was 17% in 2003). In the “10th Five-YearPlan for National Economic and Social Development (2001-2005)” and the “10th Five-Year Plan forEducation” (2001-2005), the Chinese government set goals of 15% enrollment in higher education
institutions, 16 million students in higher education institutions, and human resource development inareas such as law, finance, and trade. It is assumed that even higher goals will be set in the Eleventh
Five-Year Plan (2006-2010) currently being formulated.
The three target provinces (Liaoning, Hebei, and Hainan) are geographically in the coastal region, butfiscal shortages have left them with comparatively lagging educational conditions. In particular,enhancement of higher education is becoming an urgent issue to meet the rapidly increasing demand.
This project corresponds to the activity of “human resources development,” a priority area stipulated
both in the Economic Cooperation Program for China by the Government of Japan, and in theMedium-Term Strategy for Overseas Economic Cooperation Operations by JBIC. Thus, JBIC’s
assistance for this project is highly necessary.
3. Project Objectives
The project aims at quantitative and qualitative improvements of higher education institutions in thetarget provinces. Support will be provided for both hard (development of buildings and facilities) andsoft (training for faculties) sides. It will thereby contribute to human resources development aimed atstronger market rules, environmental conservation, and regional development, through such means asproviding human resources to governments in the target provinces.
4. Project Description(1) Target Area
Liaoning, Hebei, and Hainan Provinces
1(2) Project Outline(a) Target Universities
Hainan Liaoning University, China Medical University, Shenyang University of Technology,Liaoning Technical University, Shenyang Agricultural University, Dalian MedicalUniversity, Dalian Jiaotang University, Dalian Institute of Light Industry, Anshan
University of Science and Technology, Shenyang Institute of Chemical Technology,
Liaoning University of Petroleum and Chemical Technology, Dongbei University ofFinance and Economics, Liaoning Normal University, Shenyang Normal University,
Liaoning Institute of Technology (15 universities)
Hebei
Hebei University, Hebei University of Technology, Yanshan University, Agricultural
University of Heibei, Hebei Normal University, Hebei Medical University, Hebei
University of Science and Technology, Hebei University of Economics and Business,
Hebei Polytechnic University, Heibei Engineering College, Hebei North University,Hebei Normal University of Science and Technology, Chengde Medical College, Hebei
Woman College of Vovational Technology (14 universities)Hainan Hainan University, South China University of Tropical Agriculture, Hainan Normal
University, Hainan Medical College (4 universities)(b) Project Scope
Construction of buildings, reinforcement of educational and research facilities, dispatch of trainees
and acceptance of Japanese specialists(3) Total Project Cost/ Loan Amount23,373 million yen (Yen Loan Amount: 14,700 million yen)
(Notes) Liaoning: Project cost: 9,505 million yen (Yen Loan Amount: 5,775 million yen)
Hebei:
Project cost: 9,116 million yen (Yen Loan Amount: 5,775 million yen)
Hainan: Project cost: 4,752 million yen (Yen Loan Amount: 3,150 million yen)
(4) Schedule
July 2006-end of March 2011 (57 months)(5) Implementation Structure(a) Borrower: The Government of the People’s Republic of China(b) Executing Agency: Liaoning, Hebei, and Hainan Provincial People’s Governments(c) Operation and Maintenance System: Education Departments of Liaoning, Hebei, and Hainan
Provincial People’s Governments, and target universities(6) Environmental and Social Consideration(a) Environmental Effects/Land Acquisition and Resident Relocation(i) Category: B(ii) Reason for Categorization
This project is classified as Category B according to the “Japan Bank for International Cooperation
2Guidelines for Confirmation of Environmental and Social Considerations” (established April2002). This categorization is assigned because this project does not correspond to sectors or
regions described in said guidelines as being sensitive to negative impact, and because it is notdeemed to have a significant harmful impact on the environment.
Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) reports for the project were approved by Environmental
Protection Bureau of Liaoning Province, Environmental Protection Depaartment of Heibei
Province, and Bureau of Land, Environment and Resources of Hainan Province, in May 2004,
August 2002, and August 2005, and by other relevant authorities.
(iv) Anti-Pollution Measures
During construction of buildings, impacts on the surrounding environment such as noise and dust
will be handled by halting work at night, using noise barriers, and sprinkling water. Waste mattersuch as chemicals and medicines from medical and chemistry-related classrooms will be collected
and disposed according to domestic laws, by the environmental protection agencies of Liaoning,Hebei, and Hainan Provinces.
(v) Natural Environment
The project will be carried out on existing university sites. Undesirable impacts on the naturalenvironment are assumed to be minimal.
(vi) Social Environment
The project will be carried out on existing university sites, so there will be no site acquisition or
relocation of residents.
(vii) Other/Monitoring
The environmental protection agencies of Liaoning, Hebei, and Hainan Provinces will monitor
emissions such as gas and noise during construction for the project.
(b) Promotion of Poverty Reduction
None.
(c) Promotion of Social Development (e.g. Gender Perspective)
None.
(7) Other Important Issues
None.
5. Outcome Targets(1) Evaluation Indicator (Operation and Effect Indicator)
Indicator

Students in target higher education institutions(unit: 10,000 students)

Liaoning
Hebei
HainanLiaoning

Higher education enrollment rate in target

3

Baseline(2004)

21.3
25.4
4.2
29.3

Target(2012, 1 year after
completion ofproject)
33.9
37.1
7.2
39.0

Hainan
17.0
30.0
Facility area per student for target higher
Liaoning
16.1
16.5
2
education institutions (m /student)
Hebei
10.2
10.6
Hainan11.4
14.9
Education and research facilities per student for
Liaoning
5,326
6,455
target higher education institution (yuan/student)
Hebei
5,492
7,241
Hainan4,536
5,817(2) Internal Rate of Return (Financial/Economic Internal Rate of Return)
The main goal of the project is quantitative and qualitative improvements of higher education, forwhich reason it is difficult to specify resulting profits or benefits. It is therefore inappropriate to obtain
internal rate of return, so has not been calculated.
6. External Risk Factors
Migration of human resources from target higher education institutions to coastal areas or overseas.
7. Lessons Learned from Findings of Similar Projects Undertaken in the Past
From past ex-post evaluations of similar projects in the human resource development area, the lesson
has been learned that it is necessary to devise a scheme that meets the latest user needs. It shouldreflect the newest trends as much as possible, especially for equipment which is easily affected bytechnical innovation.
With this in mind, this project will have researchers and faculties of target universities (end users) carryout selection in the purchasing stage. Especially for very urgent equipment, the project will ensuresmooth procurement through individual package for each university.
Also, the lesson has been learned that when the project targets spread over an extensive area, overallmanagement of the project becomes difficult, requiring consultants to be hired to oversee these targets.
The project will make continued appeal to the Chinese side for providing province-wide support for
project implementation concerning training components, which is especially difficult to manage, inaddition to existing human resource development projects.
8. Plans for Future Evaluation(1) Indicators for Future Evaluation(a) Students in target higher education institutions (students)(b) Higher education enrollment rate in target provinces (%)(c) Facility area per student for target higher education institutions (m2/student)(d) Education and research facilities per student for target higher education institutions(yuan/student)(2) Timing of Next Evaluation
After completion of project4