Demographic Transition in Eastern Asia: A Comparative Perspective
Toru Suzuki
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research
While Japan achieved replacement level fertility in the 1950s, the first
demographic transition of the Republic of Korea (Korea), the Republic of China(Taiwan) and the People’s Republic of China (China) completed thirty or forty years
later. Historical events such as the Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, andeconomic reformation had significant impact on China’s fertility decline.
While Japan’s lowest TFR value of 1.26 is around the average of Southern andEastern Europe, those of 1.08 in Korea and 0.895 in Taiwan are among the lowest in theworld. The TFR value of 1.19 in Chinese census of 2010 is assumed to beunder-estimated. It can be shown that acute fertility decline in Korea and Taiwan wasaccompanied by acute nuptiality decline. While the governmental family planning
campaign had a significant socio-psychological impact in Korea, the decline in demandfor children was rather moderate in Taiwan. Thus, it is difficult to assert that extremely
low fertility in the second demographic transition is the result of extremely acutedecline in the first transition.
High college enrollment and female labor force participation are often referred
to as the reasons of low fertility. It is true that college enrollment rate rose more rapidly
in Korea and Taiwan than in Japan in the 1990s, although the trend stagnated or evenreversed recently. The M-shaped curve in female labor force participation still can beobserved in Japan and Korea in 2010 censuses.
It is difficult to evaluate gender equity in Eastern Asia. While China showshigh gender equity in political and economic sectors, Japan and Korea have high scoresin educational and health sectors. As the result, synthetic scores by the UNDP and theWEF give contradictory pictures. According to the own calculation by the DGBAS,gender equity of Taiwan is higher than other Eastern Asian countries. However, it issuggested that the gender equity within family in Taiwan is lower than other Eastern
Asian countries. Since the traditional Confucian family values are most effectively
preserved in Taiwan, the discrepancy between gender equity in the family sector andthat in non-family sectors is largest there. According to McDonald’s theory, thissituation results in very low fertility.
The compressed modernity theory emphasizes the impact of acute social,economic, and political changes in Korea and Taiwan. However, the theory does notexplain why Korea and Taiwan have lower fertility than Eastern European and theformer USSR countries that experienced much more drastic transition from socialism toliberalism, or from planned to market economy.
Another ad-hoc interpretation is cultural determinism that Confucian societies
experiences more serious contradiction between rapidly changing social, economic, andpolitical system and slowly changing family system. Because industrialization andpost-industrialization have been led by Anglo-Saxon societies, English-speaking
countries with Anglo-Saxon family pattern are most advantageous in adapting topost-modern changes. French-speaking, Dutch speaking, and German-speaking
countries are more advantageous than Southern/Eastern Europe and Japan because
family patterns in the former group are closer to Anglo-Saxon pattern than in the lattergroup. Confucian countries are more difficult to adapt than Southern/Eastern Europe orJapan because the Confucian family pattern is more distant from Anglo-Saxon pattern.
Thus, fertility in Korea and Taiwan declined to the lowest level in the world. Taiwan’s
TFR is lower than Korea because of the Confucian family pattern is more intact.
The current level of China’s fertility is controversial. Assuming that the UN
estimate of 1.55 in 2010−15 is correct, China may not experience as low value of TFR as
Korea or Taiwan without arriving at the developmental level in Asia NIEs. If the census
value of 1.19 in 2010 is correct, it implies that very low fertility was achieved without
maturity and stagnation of economy. In such a case, China may suffer from extremely
low fertility that is even lower than Taiwan.

Recorded Lowest TFR
1.9
1.7
1.5

1.3
1.1

1.26

□Northern/Western Europe,
English Speaking Countries■German Speaking Countries■Southern Europe■Eastern Europe, Former USSR
■Eastern Asia
1.19
1.08
0.895

0.9
0.7
Australia
FranceUnited Kingdom
SwedenCanadaNetherlands
Denmark
Switzerland
Austria
RomaniaJapan
Germany
GreecePolandPortugal
Italy
China
Spain
RussiaCzech Republic
Bulgaria
UkraineKorea
Taiwan0.5OECD Family Database, Eurostat, Guo&Gu (2014), 行政院主計総處5