Introduction
With the enactment of the Acts for Establishing Resilient and Sustainable Electricity Supply Systems and the revised Act
on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures, the national government, ministries and agencies are accelerating
their initiatives on energy and environmental policies to achieve a 46% reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by2030. The government has established the Basic Policy for the Realization of Green Transformation (GX), which outlines
GX initiatives based on the basic premise of securing stable energy supply. Regarding the initiative of making renewableenergy a mainstream power source, the basic policy stipulates that the renewable energy ratio of 36-38% by 2030 mustbe achieved, making the ambitious target in the Strategic Energy Plan a must-achieve goal. On the other hand, on theelectricity consumer side, the demand for electricity is increasing as the economy begins to recover from the stagnation
caused by the pandemic of COVID-19, while the appetite for introducing PV power generation is increasing as acountermeasure to the soaring energy and electricity prices triggered by Russia's invasion to Ukraine. In addition, the useof renewable energy to achieve SDGs and enhance corporate values, which started with international companies, isspreading mainly to major domestic companies as well as to their supply chains as a whole. In terms of introduction
schemes, the use of self-consumption type, PPA models and FIP programs have been increasing in place of the FIT
program and their share is expected to grow significantly in the future.
In this report, we, RTS Corporation, provide a forecast of PV installed capacity in Japan, considering the changes insociety, economy, policies, markets, products, technologies, prices, etc. over the next decade or so. We analyzed theprice outlook, changes in the social environment, market changes and prospects for technological improvements andforecasted the PV installed capacity by application and size, assuming two scenarios: the Business As Usual (BAU)
scenario which assumes the achievement of the 2030 introduction target of the Sixth Strategic Energy Plan and theAccelerated scenario which assumes significant improvement and progress in the introduction environment. We hope
you will find this report useful in considering your future projects, business development, and strategies.
October 2023
（Translated into English in February 2024)
RTS Corporation
RTS Team on Forecasting PV Installed Capacity

Forecasting PV Installed Capacity in Japan 2023 to 2035
Table of Contents
1. Overview of the installed capacity forecast ······························1
1.1 Factors considered in forecasting PV installed capacity ················ 2
1.2 Forecast specifications ···························································· 3
1.3 Two scenarios of the forecast ·················································· 4
1.4 Classification: Power generation capacity ·································· 5
1.5 Classification: Applications and installation sites ························· 6
1.6 Overpanelling ratio ································································· 7
2. Current status of PV power generation ····································82.1 Current status of the global PV market ····································· 92.2 Current status of PV power generation in Japan ······················· 142.3 Trends in PV technologies and PV products ····························· 213. Policy trends of the government, relevant ministries, agencies,
and municipalities ································································283.1 Shift from the Sixth Strategic Energy Plan to the Basic Policy forthe Realization of GX ···························································· 29
3.2 Dissemination and introduction targets led by relevant ministries
and agencies ······································································· 36
4. Assumptions of the dissemination environment ····················46
4.1 Assumptions of the dissemination environment ······················· 47
4.2 Market segments ································································· 565. Forecast of PV markets ·························································61
5.1 Residential PV market··························································· 625.2 PV market for public facilities and infrastructure facilities ·········· 66
5.3 PV market for private buildings ·············································· 70
5.4 Ground-mounted PV market ·················································· 74
5.5 Agro PV market ··································································· 78
5.6 Floating PV (FPV) market ······················································ 82

6. PV system price forecasts····················································· 86
6.1 Key points of PV system price forecast ····································87
6.2 Forecast of PV system price ···················································91
6.3 Assumptions of Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) ··················99
7. PV installed capacity in Japan (Total) ································· 102
7.1 Forecast of annual and cumulative PV installed capacity in Japan(Table) ·············································································· 103
7.2 Forecast of annual and cumulative PV installed capacity in Japan(AC-based) ········································································ 104
7.3 Forecast of annual and cumulative PV installed capacity in Japan(DC-based) ······································································· 105
8. Forecast of installed capacity by category: BAU scenario(AC-based) ········································································ 106
8.1 Installed capacity by power generation capacity ····················· 108
8.2 Installed capacity by category: FIT/FIP and non-FIT/FIP ········· 110
8.3 Installed capacity by category: All applications ······················· 112
8.4 Installed capacity by category: Detached houses···················· 114
8.5 Installed capacity by category: Private buildings ···················· 116
8.6 Installed capacity by category: Public buildings andinfrastructure facilities ························································ 118
8.7 Installed capacity by category: Ground-mounted PV system ···· 120
8.8 Installed capacity by category: Agro PV system ····················· 122
8.9 Installed capacity by category: Floating PV system ················· 124
9. Forecast of installed capacity by category: Accelerated scenario(AC-based) ········································································ 126
9.1 Installed capacity by power generation capacity ····················· 128
9.2 Installed capacity by category: FIT/FIP and non-FIT/FIP ········· 130
9.3 Installed capacity by category: All applications······················· 132

Eng2310-00_目次_r04

9.4 Installed capacity by category: Detached houses ··················· 134
9.5 Installed capacity by category: Private buildings ···················· 136
9.6 Installed capacity by category: Public buildings andinfrastructure facilities ························································ 138
9.7 Installed capacity by category: Ground-mounted PV system ··· 140
9.8 Installed capacity by category: Agro PV system ····················· 142
9.9 Installed capacity by category: Floating PV system ················ 144
10. Forecast of installed capacity by category: BAU scenario(DC-based) ······································································· 146
10.1 Installed capacity by power generation capacity ··················· 148
10.2 Installed capacity by category: FIT/FIP and non-FIT/FIP ······· 150
10.3 Installed capacity by category: All applications ···················· 152
10.4 Installed capacity by category: Detached houses ················· 154
10.5 Installed capacity by category: Private buildings ·················· 156
10.6 Installed capacity by category: Public buildings andinfrastructure facilities ······················································ 158
10.7 Installed capacity by category: Ground-mounted PV system ·· 160
10.8 Installed capacity by category: Agro PV system ··················· 162
10.9 Installed capacity by category: Floating PV system ··············· 164
11. Forecast of installed capacity by category: Accelerated
scenario (DC-based) ························································· 166
11.1 Installed capacity by power generation capacity ··················· 168
11.2 Installed capacity by category: FIT/FIP and non-FIT/FIP ······· 170
11.3 Installed capacity by category: All applications ···················· 172
11.4 Installed capacity by category: Detached houses ················· 174
11.5 Installed capacity by category: Private buildings ·················· 176
11.6 Installed capacity by category: Public buildings andinfrastructure facilities ······················································ 178
11.7 Installed capacity by category: Ground-mounted PV system ·· 180
11.8 Installed capacity by category: Agro PV system ··················· 182
11.9 Installed capacity by category: Floating PV system ··············· 184

12. Forecasts of the installed capacity of storage battery
systems ··········································································· 186
12.1 Forecast of the residential storage battery system market ····· 187
12.1.1 Premises of the installed capacity forecast of residential
storage battery systems················································ 187
12.1.2 Point of view on economic efficiency of residential storage
system ······································································· 188
12.1.3 Price trends of residential storage battery systems ··········· 189
12.1.4 Forecast of the number of residential storage battery
systems ····································································· 190
12.1.5 Forecast of the installed capacity of residential storage
battery systems ··························································· 192
12.1.6 Size of the residential storage battery system market ······· 194
12.2 Forecast of the industrial stationary storage battery system
market (demand-side facilities) ·········································· 195
12.2.1 Status of industrial stationary storage battery systems ····· 195
12.2.2 Scope of applications of industrial stationary storage
battery systems ··························································· 196
12.2.3 Premises for forecasts of installed capacity of industrial
stationary storage battery systems································· 197
12.2.4 Average price of industrial storage battery systems ·········· 198
12.2.5 Forecast of installed capacity of industrial stationary
storage batteries ·························································· 199
12.2.6 Annual market size of industrial stationary storage battery
systems ······································································ 201
12.3 Forecast of grid-scale storage battery system market (facilities onthe power network)·························································· 202
12.3.1 Premises of the forecast of installed capacity of grid-scalestorage battery systems················································ 203
12.3.2 Forecast of installed capacity of grid-scale storage battery
systems up to 2035 ······················································ 204
12.3.3 Premises of the calculation of the business scale ·············· 205
12.3.4 Estimation of large grid-scale storage battery system market
size ············································································ 206
12.3.5 Forecast of installed capacity of storage batteries, etc. byother organizations ······················································ 207

Eng2310-00_目次_r04

1.3Two scenarios of the forecast

The “BAU (Business As Usual) scenario,” based on a scenario in which the “ambitious level” (installed capacity target:117.6 GW) in the Sixth Strategic Energy Plan will be steadily achieved, and the “ACC (Accelerated) scenario”, thatfurther takes into account acceleration factors such as policy enhancement, progress in technological development,
widespread dissemination of new business models, expansion of electrification such as EVs, as well as the rise in theenergy (electricity) prices, improvement of energy self-sufficiency rate from the perspective of energy security
BAU scenario

ACC scenario

BAU = Business As Usual

ACC = Accelerated✔ Sixth Strategic Energy Plan
✔ 2050 Carbon Neutrality✔ Basic Policy for the Realization of GX (GX Promotion Strategy)✔ Acts for Establishing Resilient and Sustainable Electricity Supply✔ Upward revision of the renewable energy ratio in the energy mix✔ Acceleration of energy self-sufficiency rate improvement✔ Rapid progress in regulatory reform✔ Acceleration of climate change countermeasures by achieving✔ 117 GW (The Sixth Strategic Energy Plan)-Society/needs✔ Continued soaring of electricity rates✔ Use of green power in corporate activities✔ RE100 focusing on international companies✔ Investment in ESG becomes advantageous✔ Increase in demand for use of green power in supply chain

Technology/ industry✔ Performance improvement, diversification, and lifetime✔ Performance improvement of PV cells and modules✔ Expansion of social implementation of next-generation PV cells

NationalpoliciesSystems✔ GX Promotion Act✔ GX Decarbonization Power Supply Act✔ Act on Promotion of Global Warming Countermeasures
Nationalinstallation
targetMarketcarbon neutrality ahead of scheduleleading to expansion of green power use among small andmedium-sized enterprises (SMEs)✔ Investment in ESG becomes mandatory

extension of PV systems✔ Advancements in the PV business✔ Formation of industries by diverse players✔ Expansion of industries utilizing PV powerand modules✔ Growth and development of the aggregation business✔ Grid-forming inverters✔ Price decrease and dissemination of energy storage technology✔ Introduction shifts from FIT/ FIP to onsite/ offsite PPAs
✔ Growth of the supply-demand integrated market✔ Introduction through corporate PPA for most cases✔ Growth of new markets such as AgroPV and floating PV (FPV)-1-

1. Overview of the installed capacity forecast

7.3 Forecast of annual and cumulative PV installed capacity inJapan (DC-based)
FY 2022

BAU scenario
Accelerated scenario

7.1 GW, 86 GW

FY 2030
8.1 GW, 147 GW
15.2 GW, 181 GW

FY 2035
14.7 GW, 205 GW
23.5 GW, 279 GW

30Annual PV installed capacity (GW)2826242220279
BAU-DCACC-DC

BAU-dcDC(cumulative)

ACC-dcDC(cumulative)

DC-based(*Light colored bars for FY 2022 onward are
installed capacity under FIT/FIP programs.)

240
220
181

16205

200
1801601410280260

1812300

114
86147120100

108814080660

4402

2000Forecasts

Fiscal Year-2-Cumulative PV installed capacity (GW)

Annual and Cumulative[BAU scenario][Accelerated scenario]
7. PV installed capacity in Japan (Total)

8.4 Installed capacity by category: Detached houses (2/2)

Annual PV installed capacity (GW)

4.0
3.5

Unit: GW (AC)AC-based
Newly built houses
Existing houses

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

Fiscal Year

[BAU scenario]-3-

8. Forecast of installed capacity by category BAU scenario (AC-based)11.7 Installed capacity by category: Ground-mounted PV system(1/2)
Accelerated scenario

Annual PV installed capacity

FY

Unit: GW (DC)2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast

Groundmounted(<50kW)

0.2

1.1

2.6

2.0

1.4

1.0

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.7

1.5

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

Groundmounted(<1MW)

0.2

1.5

1.4

1.3

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

Groundmounted(<2MW)

0.3

1.3

1.8

2.1

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Groundmounted(>2MW)

0.1

0.5

1.1

1.4

1.4

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.3

1.7

1.0

0.7

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

Total

0.8

4.3

7.0

6.8

5.1

4.5

4.4

4.9

4.5

3.5

3.4

3.6

3.3

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

0.8

5.2

12.1

18.9

24.0

28.5

32.9

37.8

42.3

45.8

49.2

52.8

56.1

59.7

63.3

66.9

70.1

73.0

76.1

79.1

82.2

85.2

88.3

91.3

Cumulative PV
installed capacity[Accelerated scenario]-4-

11. Forecast of installed capacity by category Accelerated scenario (DC-based)