HIAS-E-52

実質為替レートと通貨体制：
１９７２年沖縄返還からの示唆
Real Exchange Rates and Currency Regimes:
Implications from 1972 Okinawa Reversion
Kazuko Kano
Musashino University

Takashi Kano
Hitotsubashi University

August 2017

Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University
2-1, Naka, Kunitachi, Tokyo 186-8601, Japan
tel:+81 42 580 8604
http://hias.ad.hit-u.ac.jp/
HIAS discussion papers can be downloaded without charge from:http://hdl.handle.net/10086/27202
https://ideas.repec.org/s/hit/hiasdp.html

All rights reserved.

࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͱ௨՟ମ੍:1972 ೥ԭೄฦ͔ؐΒͷࣔࠦ෢ଂ໺େֶ‫ֶࡁܦ‬෦Ұ‫ڮ‬େֶେֶӃ‫ڀݚֶࡁܦ‬ՊՃೲ ࿨ࢠ †

Ճೲ ོ ‡

2017 ೥ 8 ݄ 31 ೔ཁ໿ຊߘ͸, ҟͳΔ௨՟ମ੍͕‫ݸ‬ผখച঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτʹରͯ͠༩͑ΔޮՌΛࣝผɾਪఆ͢Δ্Ͱ, 1972
೥ 5 ݄ 15 ೔ͷԭೄຊ౔ฦؐલ‫ٿླྀʹޙ‬ɾԭೄ͕‫ ͨ͠ݧܦ‬3 ͭͷ௨՟ମ੍ — ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍, ͓Αͼ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ — ͕ཧ૝త͔ͭ‫ࣗͳྗڧ‬વ࣮‫ڥ؀ݧ‬Λఏ‫͢ڙ‬Δ͜ͱΛ, ୈ 2 ࣍ੈքେઓ‫ޙ‬ͷླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄͷ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬Λ֓‫͢؍‬Δ͜ͱͰٞ࿦͢Δ. ͜ͷࣗવ࣮‫ݧ‬ͷ࣮૷ͷͨΊ, ຊߘ͸ԭೄຊ౔ฦؐલ‫ʹޙ‬ԭೄͱ೔ຊຊ౔
ʹ͓͍࣮ͯࢪ͞Εͨখച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪʹண໨͢Δ. ৯ྉ඼ 41 ໏ฑʹ‫͍ͨͮج‬ຊߘͷ‫ྔܭ‬෼ੳ͔Β, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍͸౷‫ܭ‬తʹ΋‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ΋‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ʹର͠༗ҙͳ્֐ޮՌΛ࣋ͭ͜ͱ, ·ͨ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔Λଅਐ͢Δ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌͷԾઆ͸, ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ͸༗ҙͰ͸ͳ͍͜ͱ͕‫͞࡯؍‬ΕΔ. ຊߘͷࣗવ࣮‫͔ݧ‬Βͷ݁࿦͸, ໊໨ҝସϨʔτมಈͷࠃ಺খചՁ֨΁ͷෆ‫׬‬શͳύεɾεϧʔΛࣔࠦ͢Δ։์‫ࡁܦ‬χϡʔέΠϯδΞϯϞσϧͷ࣮ূతଥ౰ੑΛࢧ͍࣋ͯ͠Δ.

Ωʔϫʔυ:ɹ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ, ௨՟ମ੍, ԭೄຊ౔ฦؐ, খച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪ, ࣗવ࣮‫ݧ‬† ˟135-8181 ౦‫ߐ౎ژ‬౦۠༗໌ 3-3-3. Email: k_kano@musashino-u.ac.jp‡ ˟180-8601 ౦‫ࢢཱࠃ౎ژ‬த 2-1. Email: tkano@econ.hit-u.ac.jp.
∗ ຊߘ͸ 2017 ೥౓೔ຊ‫ֶࡁܦ‬ձळ‫ق‬େձʹ͓͚Δಛผใࠂʹ޲͚४උɾࣥච͞Εͨ΋ͷͰ͋Δ. ຊߘͷࣥචʹ͓͍ͯ͸ Martin Berka ࢯ͔Β‫و‬ॏͳίϝϯτΛ͍͍ͨͩͨ. ·ͨຊߘͷ‫ྔܭ‬෼ੳΛՄೳʹͨ͠σʔλऩूʹ͓͍ͯ͸, େؔஐ໵ࢯ, ࣲాਖ਼‫ࢯڿ‬, ࿨ా݈࢘ࢯͷ‫ॿิڀݚ‬Λ
ड͚ͨ. ‫͍ͨ͠ँײͯ͠ه‬. ·ͨຊߘ͸Պֶ‫ڀݚ‬අ‫ج‬൫‫( ڀݚ‬B)(՝୊൪߸ 24330060 ͓Αͼ 17H02542) ͓ΑͼҰ‫ڮ‬େֶࣾձՊֶߴ౳‫ڀݚ‬Ӄ͔Β‫ॿڀݚ‬੒Λड͚͍ͯΔ. ຊߘதʹ͓͚Δ͍͔ͳΔ‫ޡ‬Γ΋චऀʹ‫͢ؼ‬Δࣄ͸‫Ͱ·͏ݴ‬΋ͳ͍ɽ

1 ͸͡Ίʹ
ࠃࡍۚ༥࿦ʹ͓͍ͯ, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷσʔλಛੑΛ໌Β͔ʹ͠, ͦͷมಈͷߏ଄త‫ݪ‬Ҽʹ͍ͭͯͷཧղΛਂΊΔ͜ͱ͸, ৗʹத৺తͳ‫ڀݚ‬՝୊Ͱ͋Γଓ͚͖ͯͨ. ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͱ͸, ಉҰ௨՟Ͱଌͬͨ 2 ࠃؒͷ෺Ձਫ४ͷ
ဃ཭Ͱ͋Δ. ͋Δࠃͷ෺Ձਫ४͕ಉҰ௨՟୯ҐͰଞࠃͷ෺Ձਫ४ΑΓߴ͘ʢ௿͘ʣͳΕ͹, ͦͷࠃͷߪങྗ͸্ঢ͠ʢ௿Լ͠ʣ, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ͸૿Ձʢ‫ݮ‬Ձʣ͢Δ. ͦΕΏ͑, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷมಈ͸౰֘ࠃͷ૬ରతͳ‫ࡁܦ‬తްੜʹ௚݁͢Δ. ·ͨ, ‫ܦ‬ৗऩࢧ΍๵қऩࢧʹ൓ө͞ΕΔ౰֘ࠃͷର֎औҾ͸, ࠃࡍతͳ૬ରՁ֨Ͱ͋Δ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτʹେ͖͘Ө‫ڹ‬Λड͚Δ. ֎ੜతγϣοΫͷࠃࡍత೾‫ٴ‬ϝΧχζϜͷࢧபͰ͋Δ૯धཁৼସޮՌʢexpenditureswitching eﬀectʣ͸, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ͷେ͖͞ͱ଎౓ʹ‫͘ڧ‬ґଘ͍ͯ͠Δ. Ҏ্ͷΑ͏ʹ, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ͸։์‫͕ࡁܦ‬௚໘͢Δ࠷΋ॏཁͳ૬ରՁ֨Ͱ͋Γ, ͦͷมಈͷΑΓਖ਼֬ͳཧղʹ޲͚ͯա‫ۃڈ‬Ίͯଟ͘ͷ‫ߦ͕ڀݚ‬ΘΕ͖ͯͨ͜ͱ͸‫ݴ‬Λေͨͳ͍ͩΖ͏.
෺Ձࢦ਺Λߏ੒͢Δશͯͷࡒʹ͓͍ͯ 2 ࠃؒͰҰ෺ҰՁ͕੒ཱ͍ͯ͠ΔͳΒ͹, ߪങྗฏՁ͕੒ཱ࣮࣭͠ҝସϨʔτͷมಈ͸ཧ࿦తʹ͸ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍. ͔͠͠, શͯͷߏ੒ࡒʹ͓͍ͯҰ෺ҰՁ͕੒ཱ͢Δͱ͸, ઌ‫ݧ‬తʹ΋‫ݧܦ‬తʹ΋‫͍ͳ͑ݴ‬. ·ͣࠃࡍతऔҾʹ‫ࢭې‬తͳऔҾඅ༻͕͔͔Δʢཧ൅ͷΑ͏ͳʣαʔϏεࡒ͸, ࡋఆऔҾͷ‫ػ‬ձ͕ͳ͘Ұ෺ҰՁ͕੒ཱ͠ͳ͍ͱߟ͑ΒΕΔ. ΑΓҰൠతʹ͸, ෺Ձࢦ਺ͷߏ੒ࡒΛ๵қࡒͱඇ๵қࡒʹ෼͚Δͱ͢Ε͹, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷมಈ͸ඇ๵қࡒͷ 2 ࠃؒՁ֨ࠩͷมಈʹ౳͘͠ͳΔ. ͦΕΏ͑, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷมಈ͕๵қࡒͱඇ๵қࡒͷੜ࢈ੑൺͷ౰֘ 2 ࠃؒʹ͓͚Δҧ͍ʹΑͬͯઆ໌͞ΕΔ͜ͱ͕, όϥοαɾαϜΤϧιϯޮՌ(Balassa and Samuelson eﬀect) ͱͯ͠৽‫ݹ‬య೿ 2 ࠃ 2 ࡒϞσϧͰࣔ͞Ε͍ͯΔ.
ۙ೥࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ෼ੳͷத৺͸, ফඅऀ෺Ձࢦ਺ͳͲͷू‫ܭ‬σʔλʹ‫ূ࣮͍ͨͮج‬෼ੳ͔Β, ͦͷߏ੒ࡒͰ͋
Δ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼ͷখചՁ͔֨ΒͳΔϚΠΫϩσʔλΛ༻͍ͨ΋ͷʹҠߦ͖ͯͨ͠. ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ձ֨Λ༻͍࣮࣭ͨҝସϨʔτ‫ڀݚ‬ͷഎ‫ʹޙ‬͸, Ұ෺ҰՁͷ‫ʹূݕ‬͸, ͦͷલఏ৚݅Ͱ͋ΔʮಉҰࡒʯΛ‫ࣝʹີݫ‬ผ͢Δඞཁੑ͕͋Δ͔Βͩ. ͦͯ͜͠ͷϚΠΫϩσʔλΛ༻͍ͨ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼ʹ͓͚Δ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ‫ʹڀݚ‬ΑΔͱ, ඇ๵қࡒ͚ͩͰ͸ͳ͘๵қࡒʹ͓͍ͯ͑͞, ࠃࡍతͳҰ෺ҰՁ͕੒ཱ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ͱ͍͏‫໌͕࣮ࣄ͖΂͘ڻ‬Β͔ʹͳͬͨ (Engel 1999, Crucini andTelmer 2012, Gopinath et al. 2011, Broda and Weinstein 2008).*1 ͜ͷ݁Ռ͸௕೥ओு͞Ε͖ͯͨόϥοαɾαϜΤϧιϯޮՌͷ༗ޮੑʹਂࠁͳٙ೦Λ౤͔͚͛ͨͷͱಉ࣌ʹ, ͦ΋ͦ΋ͳͥ๵қࡒʹ͓͍ͯҰ෺ҰՁ͕੒ཱ͠
ͳ͍ͷ͔, ͦͷ౷‫ܭ‬త‫݈ؤ‬ੑͱͦͷओཁҼΛ୳Δ‫ڀݚ‬τϐοΫΛ৽ͨʹੜΈग़͠, ‫ࡏݱ‬ਫ਼ྗతʹ‫͕ڀݚ‬ਐΊΒΕ͍ͯΔ.
๵қࡒʹ͓͚ΔࠃࡍతͳҰ෺ҰՁ͔Βͷဃ཭ͷओཁҼʹ͸, ·ͣࠃࡍؒɾ஍ҬؒऔҾίετʢ༌ૹίετ͓Αͼࠃ‫ޮڥ‬Ռʣ΍ࠃ಺ྲྀ௨αʔϏεʹ͓͚Δඇ๵қࡒʢਓ݅අ΍૔‫ݿ‬౳ʣͳͲ, ࡒͷࡋఆ‫ػ‬ձΛ๦͛Δ࣮෺తຎࡲ (realfrictions) ͷ໾ׂ͕‫͛ڍ‬ΒΕ͍ͯΔ.*2 ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτมಈʹ͓͚Δ࣮෺తຎࡲͷॏཁͳ໾ׂ͸, ओʹࠃࡍత࣮෺
త‫ؾܠ‬॥‫؀‬ཧ࿦ (international real business cycle models) ͷ෼໺Λத৺ʹ, ཧ࿦తɾ࣮ূతʹߟ࡯͞Ε͖ͯͨ.
Ұํ, ໊໨Ձ֨ͷߗ௚ੑͳͲͷ໊໨తຎࡲ (nominal frictions) ͷॏཁੑ͸ Mussa (1986) ʹΑΓࢦఠ͞Ε͍ͯΔ.

Mussa (1986) ͸, ϒϨτϯɾ΢οζମ੍ͷ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Լͱ, ϒϨτϯɾ΢οζମ੍่յ‫ޙ‬ͷมಈ૬৔੍Լʹ͓͚Δ, ઌਐࠃؒͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͱ໊໨ҝସϨʔτͷू‫ܭ‬σʔλͷ࣌‫ྻܥ‬෼ੳ͔Β, ҎԼͷ 2 ͭͷ‫࡯؍‬Λߦ͍ͬͯΔ.
*1 ϚΠΫϩσʔλΛ༻͍࣮࣭ͨҝସϨʔτʹؔ͢Δ࠷ۙͷ࣮ূ෼ੳͷแ‫ׅ‬తͳαʔϕΠ͸ Bursten and Gopinath (2014) ͱ Marsh etal. (2012) Λࢀরͷ͜ͱ.
*2 Ұ෺ҰՁ͔Βͷဃ཭ͷ࣋ଓੑʹ͓͚Δࠃ಺ྲྀ௨αʔϏεΛ௨ͨ͡ඇ๵қࡒͷ໾ׂʹؔͯ͠͸ Crucini and Shintani (2008) ͷϚΠΫϩ

σʔλΛ༻͍ͨ෼ੳ͕஌ΒΕ͍ͯΔ. Kano et al.(2013) ͸೔ຊͷ೶࢈෺ԷചՁ֨ͱ༌ૹύλʔϯͷσʔλΛ༻͍ͯߏ଄ϞσϧΛࣝผ͠ɺ஍ҬؒՁ֨ʹ͓͚Δ༌ૹίετͷ໾ׂΛਪఆʹ͍ͯ͠Δ. ࠃ‫ޮڥ‬Ռͷࣝผʹؔͯ͠͸ Gopinath et al.(2011) ࢀরͷ͜ͱ.

1

1. มಈ૬৔੍Լʹ͓͍ͯ, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͱ໊໨ҝସϨʔτͷؒʹ͸, ͓͓ΑͦҰରҰͷਖ਼ͷ૬͕ؔ͋Δ.
2. ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ʹ͓͚Δ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτมಈͷఔ౓͸, มಈ૬৔੍Լͷ΋ͷΑΓ͸Δ͔ʹখ͍͞.
࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷมԽ཰͕, ໊໨ҝସϨʔτͷมԽ཰͔Β౰֘ 2 ࠃؒͷΠϯϑϨ཰ࠩΛҾ͍ͨ΋ͷʹ౳͘͠ͳΔ͜ͱΛߟྀ͢Ε͹, ͜ͷ Mussa (1986) ͷओுΛཧղ͢Δ͜ͱ͸ൺֱత༰қͰ͋Δ. ౰֘ࠃʹ໊͓͍ͯ໨Ձ͕֨े෼
ʹߗ௚తͰ͋Ε͹, ΠϯϑϨ཰ͷมԽ͸ͦΕͧΕͷࠃͰখ͍͞. Ұํ, มಈ૬৔੍Լͷࠃࡍۚ༥ࢢ৔ʹ͓͍ͯ, ࢿ࢈Ձ֨ͷ 1 ͭͱܾͯ͠ఆ͞ΕΔ໊໨ҝସϨʔτ͸, ଞͷࢿ࢈Ձ֨ʢྫ͑͹‫ג‬Ձʣͱಉ༷ʹมಈ͕‫ۃ‬Ίܹ͍ͯ͠. ݁Ռͱͯ͠, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷมಈ͸໊໨ҝସϨʔτͷมಈʹ͓ΑͦҰக͢Δ. ·ͨ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ԼͰ͸, ໊໨ҝସϨʔτͷมಈ͸੍౓తʹೝΊΒΕͳ͍. ͦΕΏ࣮࣭͑ҝସϨʔτͷมԽ཰͸ΠϯϑϨ཰ࠩʹ౳͘͠, ͦͷมಈͷେ͖͞͸, ໊໨Ձ֨ͷߗ௚ੑΛ൓өͯ͠, มಈ૬৔੍Լͷ΋ͷΑΓ΋͸Δ͔ʹখ͘͞ͳΔ.

Mussa (1986) ͷ෼ੳҎ߱, χϡʔέΠϯδΞϯϞσϧͷ෼໺ʹ͓͍ͯ, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτมಈʹ͓͚Δ໊໨తߗ௚
ੑͷ໾ׂ͕ߟ࡯͞Ε͖ͯͨ. ͦ͜Ͱ͸ओʹ‫ ࡯؍‬1 ͕‫ڧ‬ௐ͞Ε, มಈ૬৔੍Լʹ͓͚Δ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτมಈͷओཁҼͱͯ͠, ಠ઎‫ڝ‬૪త༌ग़‫ۀا‬ͷࢢ৔ࠩผత (pricing-to-market) ͔ͭ༌ग़ઌ௨՟ (local currency) ʹ‫ߗ͍ͨͮج‬௚తͳՁ֨ઃఆߦಈ͕࢈Έग़͢, ໊໨ҝସϨʔτมಈͷࠃ಺Ձ֨΁ͷෆ‫׬‬શͳύεɾεϧʔ (pass-through) ͷ໾ׂ͕ॏཁࢹ͞Ε͍ͯΔ. Ұํ, Mussa (1986) ͷ‫ ࡯؍‬2 ͕ࣔࠦ͢ΔΑ͏ʹ, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷௐ੔͕, ϒϨτϯɾ΢οζମ੍ʹ‫ݟ‬ΒΕΔ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍΍, ͦͷ่յ‫ޙ‬ͷมಈ૬৔੍ͱ͍ͬͨ, ࠃࡍ௨՟ମ੍ͦΕࣗମʹ‫͍ڧ‬Ө‫ڹ‬Λड͚͍ͯΔՄೳੑΛ‫؃‬ա͢Δ͜ͱ͸Ͱ͖ͳ͍. ͞Βʹ 1999 ೥ʹൃ଍ͨ͠Ϣʔϩମ੍ͷଘࡏ͸, ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ͷҰ‫ܗ‬ଶͰ͋Δ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍͕, Ұൠతͳ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Ҏ্ʹ, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔Λଅਐͤ͞Δ‫ݻ‬༗ͳʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯ(common

currency eﬀect) ͱ࣋ͭͷ͔Ͳ͏͔, ࣗવͰ͋Δ͕੓ࡦతʹ΋‫ۃ‬Ίͯॏཁͳٙ໰Λ৽ͨʹఏ‫ͨ͠ى‬.
͜ͷʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯͷԾઆʹର͠, গͳ͘ͱ΋චऀ͕஌Δ‫ݶ‬Γ, ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ձ֨Λ༻͍ͨ 2 ͭͷ୅දతͳ‫ڀݚ‬
͕͋Δ. Berka et al. (2012) ͸, Ԥभ 18 Χࠃͷ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ձ֨ͷ 1995 ೥-2009 ೥ͷ೥࣍σʔλ (Eurostat-OECD

PPP Program) Λ༻͍ͯ, 2 Χࠃؒͷ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼ผ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτΛ‫͍ͯ͠ࢉܭ‬Δ. ͜ͷͱ͖࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷ࣌‫ܥ‬ྻ͓ΑͼΫϩεηΫγϣϯํ޲ͷඪ४ภࠩ͸, ϢʔϩՃໍࠃϖΞͷํ͕, มಈ૬৔੍࠾༻ࠃΛ‫ؚ‬ΜͩϖΞΑΓ΋, ༗ҙʹখ͍͞. ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸Ϣʔϩ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ମ੍ʹ୅ද͞ΕΔ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Լͷํ͕, มಈ૬৔੍Լʹൺֱͯ͠, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷௐ੔͕ૣ͍͜ͱΛ͍ࣔࠦͯ͠Δ. ·ͨ Berka et al.(2017) Ͱ͸, ಉ͡ϚΠΫϩσʔλΛ༻͍ͯ, ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ձ֨ʹ͓͚ΔόϥοαɾαϜΤϧιϯޮՌͷ࣮ূ͕ߦͳΘΕ͍ͯΔ. ͜ͷͱ͖, มಈ૬৔੍࠾༻ࠃΛ‫ؚ‬ΊͨϖΞͰ͸ͳ͘, ϢʔϩՃໍࠃϖΞʹ͓͍ͯόϥοαɾαϜΤϧιϯޮՌ͕༗ҙʹ‫͞࡯؍‬Ε͍ͯΔ. ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸, ໊໨ҝସϨʔτมಈͷӨ‫ڹ‬Λड͚ͳ͍‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍/‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ͷ΄͏͕, όϥοαɾαϜΤϧιϯޮՌͷ૝ఆͷͱ͓Γ, ๵қࡒͱඇ๵қࡒͷ૬ରՁ֨ͷมԽʹର͠, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ͕ޮ཰తʹௐ੔͞Ε͍ͯΔ͜ͱΛҙຯ͍ͯ͠Δ.

Cavallo et al. (2014a) ͸, ๵қՄೳͳ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ʹର͠, ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Լͱ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ԼͰͲͷΑ͏ͳҧ͍͕ଘࡏ͢Δͷ͔, ࣮ূతʹ໌Β͔ʹ͠Α͏ͱ͢Δ࠷ॳͷࢼΈͰ͋Δ. ͜ͷ‫Ͱڀݚ‬͸, άϩʔόϧల։͢Δখച੡଄‫ ۀاۀ‬4 ࣾͷΦϯϥΠϯετΞͰ‫͞࡯؍‬ΕΔ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ձ֨Λ, ੈք 85 Χࠃʹ͓͍ͯ೔࣍Ͱαϯϓϧ͍ͯ͠Δ. ಛච͢΂͖͸, σʔλ಺ͷԤभॾࠃʹ, ϢʔϩՃໍࠃ, ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍࠾༻ࠃ, ͦͯ͠มಈ૬৔੍࠾༻
ࠃ͕ͦΕͧΕ‫·ؚ‬Ε͍ͯΔ͜ͱͰ͋Δ.*3 ͜ͷͨΊ, Cavallo et al. (2014a) ͸, ͦΕͧΕͷ௨՟ମ੍ʹଐ͢Δ 2 ࠃؒͷ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτมಈͷఔ౓ʹ͍ͭͯ, ҟͳͬͨ௨՟ମ੍ؒͰͷൺֱ͕ՄೳͰ͋Γ, Αͬͯ௨՟ମ੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ΁ͷӨ‫͕ڹ‬ਪఆՄೳͰ͋Δ.

Cavallo et al. (2014a) Ͱ͸ҎԼͷ‫͕࣮ࣄ࡯؍͖΂͘ڻ‬ใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔ. ๵қՄೳͳ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ձ֨ʹ͓͚ΔҰ෺

*3 άϩʔόϧల։͢Δখച੡଄‫ͱۀ‬͸Ξοϓϧ, ΠέΞ, H&M, Zara Λࢦ͢.

2ҰՁ͸, ϢʔϩՃໍࠃؒͰ͸͔ͳΓਖ਼֬ʹ੒ཱ͍ͯ͠Δ͕, ϢʔϩඇՃໍࠃؒͰ͸, ͨͱ͑‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍࠾༻ࠃؒʹ͓͍ͯ΋, େ͖͘ဃ཭͍ͯ͠Δͱ͍͏ࣄ࣮Ͱ͋Δ. ͜ͷ‫࡯؍‬͸, ໊໨ҝସϨʔτͷมಈ͕ແ͍ͱ͍͏͜ͱҎ্ʹ, ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ͰՁ֨ઃఆ͞Ε͍ͯΔࣄͦΕࣗମ͕, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔Λଅਐ͢Δʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯͷՄೳੑΛ͍ࣔࠦͯ͠
Δ. ͜͜Ͱ໰୊͸, ͜ͷΑ͏ͳ‫࡯؍‬Λઆ໌Ͱ͖ΔχϡʔέΠϯδΞϯϞσϧ͸, ‫ࡏݱ‬ଘࡏ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍͜ͱͰ͋Δ. ΋
ͪΖΜ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτมಈʹର͢Δมಈ૬৔੍ͱ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ͷޮՌͷҧ͍͸, ա‫͔͍ͭ͘ڈ‬ͷχϡʔέΠϯδΞϯ
Ϟσϧʹ͓͍ͯू‫ܭ‬σʔλʹ‫͍ͯج‬આ໌͞Ε͖ͯͨ.*4 ͔͠͠গͳ͘ͱ΋චऀͷ஌Δ‫ݶ‬Γ, ๵қՄೳͳ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτมಈʹର͢Δ, ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ͱ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷӨ‫ڹ‬ͷ༗ҙͳҧ͍Λ߹ཧతʹઆ໌Ͱ͖ΔχϡʔέΠϯδΞ
ϯϞσϧ͸ଘࡏ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍. ͦΕΏ͑, ΋͠ Cavallo et al. (2014a) ͷ‫͕࡯؍‬ਅͷʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯΛଊ͍͑ͯΔ
ͱ͢Ε͹, ͦΕ͸࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτมಈʹؔ͢Δ৽͍͠ཧ࿦ϞσϧͷඞཁੑΛ‫͘ڧ‬ఏ‫͍ͯ͠ى‬Δ͜ͱʹͳΔͩΖ͏.
ຊߘͷ໨త͸, Ҏ্ͷΑ͏ʹۙ೥ਐల͕ஶ͍͠, ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ձ֨ͷϚΠΫϩσʔλΛ༻͍ͨࠃࡍ௨՟ମ੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτޮՌͷ࣮ূ෼ੳΛ࠶ߟ͢Δ͜ͱʹ͋Δ. ͜ͷͨΊ, Kano and Kano (2016) ͷ෼ੳʹґ‫͠ڌ‬, զ͕ࠃͷྺ࢙తσʔλΛ༻͍ͯʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯͷΑΓద੾ͳࣝผɾਪఆΛࢼΈΔ. ຊߘͰ͸, Kano and Kano (2016) ಉ༷,

1972 ೥ 5 ݄ 15 ೔ʹ࣮‫ͨ͠ݱ‬ԭೄຊ౔ฦؐલ‫͞࡯؍Ͱޙ‬Εͨ, ԭೄɾಹ೼ࢢͱຊ౔ओཁ౎ࢢؒʹ͓͚Δ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ձ֨ࠩͷσʔλΛ෼ੳର৅ͱ͍ͯ͠Δ.*5 ຊߘͰ͸, ೔ຊ੓෎૯ཧ෎౷‫ٿླྀͱہܭ‬੓෎‫ا‬ը‫ہ‬౷‫ܭ‬ிʹΑ࣮ͬͯࢪ͞
Εͨʮখച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪʯͷ 1970 ೥ 1 ݄͔Β 1974 ೥ 12 ݄ʹऩू͞Εͨௐࠪ඼໨ͷখചళฮʹ͓͚ΔൢചՁ֨ͷ݄࣍σʔλΛ࢖༻͢Δ. ౰σʔλͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ‫͚͓ʹڀݚ‬Δ‫ر‬গੑͱଥ౰ੑ͸࣍ͷΑ͏ʹઆ໌Ͱ͖ΔͩΖ͏.
·ͣຊߘͷσʔλʹ͸, ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍, มಈ૬৔੍, ͓Αͼ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷ 3 ͭͷҟͳͬͨ௨՟ମ੍Λ‫ͨ͠ݧܦ‬ಉ͡஍ҬϖΞ͕‫·ؚ‬Ε͍ͯΔ. ୈ 2 ࣍େઓ‫ޙ‬, ಹ೼ࢢΛओཁ౎ࢢͱ͢Δླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ͸, ถ‫܉‬઎ྖԼʹ͋Γ, 1958 ೥ 9 ݄

20 ೔Ҏ߱ຊ౔෮‫Ͱ·ؼ‬, ͦͷྲྀ௨௨՟͸ถυϧͰ͋ͬͨ. 1971 ೥ 8 ݄ 15 ೔ͷ͍ΘΏΔʮχΫιϯɾγϣοΫʯʹ
ΑΔถυϧͷۚၳ‫׵‬ఀࢭʹ൐͍, ೔ຊԁ͸ϒϨτϯɾ΢οζମ੍ʹ͓͚Δ 1 υϧ 360 ԁͷ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔͔Βถυϧʹର͠‫੾ͳܹٸ‬Γ্͛Λ༨ّͳ͘͞Ε, 1971 ೥ 8 ݄ 28 ೔ʹ͸มಈ૬৔੍΁ͷҠߦ͕࣮ࢪ͞Εͨ. ͜ͷͨΊ, ԭೄͷ೔ຊຊ౔ʹର͢Δ௨՟ମ੍͸, 1971 ೥ 8 ݄ 28 ೔Λ‫ݻʹڥ‬ఆ૬৔੍͔Βมಈ૬৔੍ʹࣄ্࣮Ҡߦͨ͠ͱ‫͑ݴ‬Δ. ͞Βʹ 1972 ೥ 5 ݄ 15 ೔Λ‫ʹڥ‬, ಹ೼ࢢͷ͢΂ͯͷ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ձ֨͸υϧ‫͔ͯݐ‬Βԁ‫ʹͯݐ‬มߋ͞Εͨ. ‫͑׵͍ݴ‬Ε͹,

1972 ೥ 5 ݄Ҏ߱, ಹ೼ࢢ͸೔ຊԁͷʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟‫ݍ‬ʯʹ੓ࡦత͔ͭ֎ੜతʹ߹ซ͞Εͨͱߟ͑Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ. ͭ·Γ, ಹ೼ࢢͱຊ౔ओཁ౎ࢢؒͷ௨՟ମ੍͕, ԁɾυϧͷ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ (1958 ೥ 9 ݄ 20 ೔͔Β 1971 ೥ 8 ݄ 27 ೔) ͔Βมಈ૬৔੍ (1971 ೥ 8 ݄ 28 ೔͔Β 1972 ೥ 5 ݄ 14 ೔) ʹҠߦ͠, ͦͷ‫ޙ‬೔ຊԁͷ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ (1972 ೥ 5 ݄ 15೔Ҏ߱‫ʹ )Ͱ·ࡏݱ‬Ҡߦͨ͜͠ͱΛҙຯ͢Δ.
੓ࡦධՁͷจ‫͑ैʹݙ‬͹, ಛఆͷ੓ࡦޮՌΛࣝผɾਪఆ͢ΔͨΊʹ͸, ౰֘੓ࡦ͕ࢪߦ͞ΕΔॲஔ‫܈‬ʢtreatmentgroupʣΛઃఆ͠, ॲஔ‫܈‬ͷ੓ࡦࢪߦલ‫ޙ‬ͷ൓ԠΛ౷‫ܭ‬తʹൺֱ͢Δ͜ͱ͕ඞཁͱ͞ΕΔ. ͔͠͠ॲஔ‫܈‬ͷ৘ใ͚ͩͰ͸, ੓ࡦޮՌͷਖ਼֬ͳਪఆʹ͸े෼Ͱ͸ͳ͍. ͳͥͳΒ౰֘੓ࡦͷޮՌͱ੓ࡦࢪߦ࣌ʹಉ࣌ʹൃੜͨ͠ͱߟ͑ΒΕΔଞͷ‫ڥ؀ࡁܦ‬ͷมԽͷޮՌΛ෼཭͢Δ͜ͱ͕ग़དྷͳ͍͔ΒͰ͋Δ. ͜ͷͨΊ, ಉ͡‫ڥ؀ࡁܦ‬Λ‫ڞ‬༗͠ͳ͕Β΋੓ࡦ͕ࢪߦ͞Εͳ͍, ͍ΘΏΔରর‫( ܈‬control group) ͷઃఆ͕ඞཁͱͳΔ. ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸, ຊ‫͕ڀݚ‬஫໨͢Δԭೄຊ౔෮‫ؼ‬લ‫ޙ‬ͷσʔλɾηοτ͕, ԭೄͱຊ౔ओཁ౎ࢢؒͷ஍ҬϖΞΛ, ྺ࢙తʹ̏ͭͷҟͳͬͨ௨՟ମ੍Λ‫ݧܦ‬ͨ͠ॲஔ‫ͯ͠ͱ܈‬, ·ͨͦͷଞͷຊ౔ओཁ౎ࢢؒͷ஍ҬϖΞΛ, ௨՟ମ੍ͷมԽΛड͚ͳ͍ରর‫ͨ͠ͱ܈‬, ௨՟ମ੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτޮՌͷ‫͚͓ʹূݕ‬Δ, ద੾ͳࣗવ࣮‫( ݧ‬natural experiment) ͷ৔ͱͳ͍ͬͯΔ͜ͱΛҙຯ͢

*4 Mussa (1986), Monachelli (2004), and Kano (2016) Λࢀরͷ͜ͱ.
*5 ຊߘ͸ Kano and Kano (2016) ͷ෼ੳʹ‫͍͍ͯͮج‬Δ͕, ຊߘͷࣗવ࣮‫ڥ؀ݧ‬ͷଥ౰ੑΛٞ࿦͢ΔͨΊ, ࣍અͰ‫ݟ‬ΔΑ͏ʹઓ‫ٿླྀޙ‬ɾԭೄͷ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ͷΑΓৄࡉͳղઆΛࢼΈΔ.

3

Δ.*6 ͞Βʹ͸, (i) ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄͷ೔ຊԁ‫͔ݍ‬Βͷ཭୤ͱ࠶ࢀೖ͕, ‫ࡁܦ‬తͳཧ༝ʹ‫಺͍ͨͮج‬ੜతͳબ୒Ͱ͸ͳ͘,
ୈ 2 ࣍ੈքେઓͷऴઓͱԭೄͷ஍੓ֶతཱ஍ͱ͍͏֎ੜతཁҼʹΑܾͬͯఆ͞Ε͍ͯΔ఺, (ii) ౰࣌ͷԭೄ‫͕ࡁܦ‬,ถ‫܉‬઎ྖԼʹ͓͍ͯ΋࣮࣭తʹ೔ຊຊ౔‫ेʹݍࡁܦ‬෼ʹ౷߹͞Ε͍ͯͨ఺, (iii) ͦͯ͠ 1971 ೥ 8 ݄ͷχΫιϯɾγϣοΫҎ߱ͷมಈ૬৔੍Ҡߦ͕, ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ‫ͯͬͱʹࡁܦ‬͸શ͘ҙਤͤͣ֎ੜతʹൃੜͨ͠௨՟ମ੍ͷߏ଄มԽͰ͋ͬͨ఺͸, ຊߘͰͷࣗવ࣮‫ݧ‬ͷଥ౰ੑΛ‫͘ڧ‬อূ͍ͯ͠Δ. ͜ͷͱ͖, ࠩͷࠩճ‫( ؼ‬diﬀerence-in-diﬀerence

regression: DID) ΍ෆ࿈ଓճ‫ؼ‬σβΠϯ (regression discountinuity design: RDD) ͳͲ, ੓ࡦධՁͷ‫ྔܭͳྗڧ‬‫ࡁܦ‬తํ๏͕ར༻ՄೳͱͳΔ.
͜͜Ͱຊߘͷ‫طͱڀݚ‬ଘ‫ڀݚ‬ͷҧ͍Λ໌Β͔ʹ͓ͯ͘͠. લઆͷ Berka et al. (2012, 2017) ͱ Cavallo et al.

(2014a) ͷ෼ੳͰ͸, ͦΕͧΕͷαϯϓϧ‫ؒظ‬ͷதͰ, ಉҰͷࠃϖΞ͸ಉҰͷ௨՟ମ੍ͷΈΛ‫͍ͯ͠ݧܦ‬Δ. ͜ͷͨΊ௨՟ମ੍ͷมԽΛड͚Δॲஔ‫ͱ܈‬, ௨՟ମ੍ͷมԽΛ‫͍ͳ͠ݧܦ‬ରর‫܈‬ͷ໌֬ͳઃఆ͕ଘࡏͤͣ, ௨՟ମ੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτޮՌΛࣝผ͢Δ, ద੾ͳࣗવ࣮‫ݧ‬ͷ৚݅Λຬ͍ͨͯ͠ͳ͍. ໰୊͸, Cavallo et al.(2014a) ʹ͓͍ͯʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯͱͯࣝ͠ผɾਪఆ͞ΕͨޮՌ͕, ͦͷਅͷޮՌͰ͸ͳ͘, ౰֘‫ڞ‬௨௨՟‫ʹݍ‬ଐ͢ΔࠃͷϖΞ‫ݻ‬༗ͷ࣌ؒΛ௨ͯ͡ෆมͳผͷཁҼΛ൓ө͍ͯ͠ΔՄೳੑΛഉআͰ͖ͳ͍͜ͱʹ͋Δ.
චऀͷ஌Δ‫ݶ‬Γʹ͓͍ͯ, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτʹର͢Δʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯΛࣝผɾਪఆ͢ΔͨΊͷࣗવ࣮‫ݧ‬Λѻ͏‫ط‬ଘ‫ڀݚ‬͸ 2 ͭ͋Δ. ·ͣୈ 1 ʹ, Cavallo et al. (2014b) ͸, 2014 ೥ʹ࣮ࢪ͞ΕͨϦτϏΞͷϢʔϩՃໍͷલ‫Ͱޙ‬αϯϓϧ͞Εͨ, άϩʔόϧల։͢Δখച੡଄‫ۀاۀ‬ͷ 1 ͭͰ͋Δ ZARA ͷҥྨ঎඼ͷΦϯϥΠϯՁ֨Λ෼ੳ͠
͍ͯΔ. ϦτϏΞͱͦͷଞͷϢʔϩՃໍࠃؒͷϖΞΛॲஔ‫͠ͱ܈‬, ·ͨϦτϏΞҎ֎ͷ‫ط‬ଘͷϢʔϩՃໍࠃؒͷϖΞΛରর‫ͯ͠ͱ܈‬, ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτʹର͢Δ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌͷࣗવ࣮‫ݧ‬Λઃఆ͍ͯ͠Δ. ͦͯ͠ॲஔ‫͚͓ʹ܈‬Δ ZARA ੡඼ͷ 2 ࠃؒ૬ରՁ֨෼෍͸, ϢʔϩՃໍͱ͍͏ॲஔ‫΅΄ޙ‬θϩʹୀԽ͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱΛ‫࡯؍‬͠, ౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙͳʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯͷଘࡏΛओு͍ͯ͠Δ.
·ͨୈ 2 ͷ‫ط‬ଘ‫ͯ͠ͱڀݚ‬, Takagi et al. (2004) ͸, 1972 ೥ 5 ݄ͷԭೄຊ౔෮‫ؼ‬લ‫ޙ‬ͷླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄͷফඅऀ෺ՁσʔλΛ༻͍ͯ, ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌͷࣗવ࣮‫ݧ‬Λ௨ͨࣝ͡ผɾਪఆΛࢼΈ͍ͯΔ. ࣍અͰ֓આ͢ΔΑ͏ʹ, ଠฏ༸ઓ૪
຤‫ظ‬, 1945 ೥ 4 ݄ 1 ೔ͷถ‫܉‬ԭೄຊౡ্཮‫ޙ‬, ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ͸ 1972 ೥ 5 ݄ 15 ೔ͷຊ౔෮‫Ͱ·ؼ‬ถ‫܉‬઎ྖԼͱͳͬ
ͨ. ͜ͷถ‫ࢪ܉‬੓ԼͰ, ຊ౔෮‫ࢸʹؼ‬Δ·Ͱʹ, ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ͸‫ ܭ‬6 ճ΋ͷ๏ఆ௨՟มߋΛ‫͢ݧܦ‬Δ. Takagi et al.

(2004) ͸, ू‫ܭ‬σʔλʹ‫͍ͨͮج‬ফඅऀ෺Ձࢦ਺Λ༻͍ͯ, ೔ຊ͓ΑͼถࠃͦΕͧΕʹର͢Δླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷ࣌‫ྻܥ‬෼ࢄΛ, ୈ 4 ࣍, ୈ 5 ͓࣍Αͼୈ 6 ࣍๏ఆ௨՟มߋͰ࣮‫͞ݱ‬Εͨ, B ‫ܕ‬ԁ‫܉‬ථࢴฎ (ҎԼ B ԁ),ถυϧ, ೔ຊԁʹ‫ͭ̏ͮ͘ج‬ͷ௨՟ମ੍ͷͦΕͧΕʹ͓͍ͯ‫͍ͯ͠ࢉܭ‬Δ. ͜ͷͱ͖, ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷ෼ࢄ͸, ԁ௨՟ମ੍ͷࡍʹ͸೔ຊʹରͯ͠ΑΓখ͘͞ͳΓ, ‫ʹٯ‬ถυϧ͓Αͼ B ԁ௨՟ମ੍‫ʹظ‬͸ΞϝϦΧʹ
ରͯ͠ΑΓখ͘͞ͳ͍ͬͯΔ͜ͱΛ‫͠࡯؍‬, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτมಈʹର͢Δ༗ҙͳ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌΛਪఆ͍ͯ͠Δ.
͜ͷΑ͏ʹ Cavallo et al. (2014b) ͱ Takagi et al. (2004) ͸, ࣗવ࣮‫ݧ‬Λ༻͍࣮࣭ͯҝସϨʔτมಈʹର͢Δ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌͷࣝผͱਪఆΛࢼΈΔॏཁͳઌߦ‫͋Ͱڀݚ‬Δ͕, ͦΕͧΕຊߘͱͷ໌֬ͳҧ͍͕͋Δ. ͦͷ݁‫Ͱޠ‬΋े෼ʹཹҙ͞Ε͍ͯΔΑ͏ʹ, Cavallo et al. (2014b) ͷ໰୊఺͸, ࣝผ͞Εͨʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯ͕, άϩʔόϧల։Λ͍ͯ͠ΔҥྨϝʔΧʔಠࣗͷՁ֨ઓུͷҰ෦Λ൓ө͍ͯ͠Δ͚ͩͰ, ͨͱ͑αϯϓϧʹ‫·ؚ‬Ε͍ͯΔҥྨ঎඼਺͕͍͔ʹଟͯ͘΋, ౰֘ࠃͷ෺Ձࢦ਺Λߏ੒͢Δଞͷଟ͘ͷࡒʹରͯ͠, ͦͷ݁࿦ΛҰൠԽͯ͠౰ͯ͸ΊΔ͜ͱ͕ࠔ೉ͳ఺Ͱ͋Δ. ҰํͰຊߘͰ༻͍Δσʔλ͸, զ͕ࠃͷফඅऀ෺Ձࢦ਺Λߏ੒͢ΔଟछྨͷࡒͷখചՁ֨Ͱ͋
*6 Gorodnichenko and Tesar (2009) ͸, Ұ෺ҰՁ͔Βͷဃ཭ʹର͢Δʮࠃ‫ޮڥ‬Ռʯͷࣝผɾਪఆʹ͓͍ͯ, ద੾ͳॲஔ‫ͱ܈‬ରর‫جʹ܈‬ͮࣗ͘વ࣮‫ݧ‬ͷඞཁੑΛઆ͍͍ͯΔ. ͜ͷҰ෺ҰՁ͔Βͷဃ཭ʹର͢Δࠃ‫ޮڥ‬Ռͷࣝผɾਪఆʹ͓͚Δࣗવ࣮‫ͯ͠ͱݧ‬͸, 1971 ೥ʹ࣮‫ͨ͠ݱ‬ύΩελϯͱόϯάϥσΟογϡͷ෼཭ɾಠཱͷέʔεΛ෼ੳͨ͠ Morshed (2007) ͷ DID ෼ੳ͕͋Δ. Morshed(2007) ʹΑΕ͹, ౰֘ 2 ࠃͷؒʹ૬ରՁ֨ߏ଄ʹ౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙͰ‫ޮڥࠃͳ݈ؤ‬Ռ͸‫͍ͳ͖Ͱ࡯؍‬.

4

Δ. ͜ͷ఺ຊߘͷ݁࿦͸, ͋Δಛఆͷ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼ੜ࢈ऀ‫ݻ‬༗ͷՁ֨ઃఆߦಈͷΑ͏ͳ‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌͷӨ‫ʹڹ‬ରͯ͠͸‫݈ؤ‬Ͱ͋Δ.
·ͨ Takagi et al. (2004) Ͱ͸, ফඅऀ෺Ձࢦ਺ͷू‫ܭ‬σʔλʹ‫࣭࣮͍ͨͮج‬ҝସϨʔτ͕෼ੳର৅͕ͩ, ຊߘͰ͸ΑΓ࠷ۙͷจ‫͍ैʹݙ‬, ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτΛ෼ੳର৅ͱ͍ͯ͠Δ. Takagi et al. (2004) Ͱ͸, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷมಈΛ, ઈରతߪങྗฏՁ (absolute purchasing power parity) ͔Βͷဃ཭ͱ૬ରత PPP(relative

purchasing power parity) ͔Βͷဃ཭ʹ‫ܭ͍ͯͮج‬ଌ͍ͯ͠Δ͕, ஫໨͢΂͖͜ͱʹ, ༗ҙͳ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌ͸, ૬ରత PPP Ͱ͸ͳ͘ઈରత PPP Λ༻͍ͨࡍʹͷΈ‫͞࡯؍‬ΕΔ. ઈରత PPP ͔Βͷဃ཭Λ༻͍࣮࣭ͨҝସϨʔτ‫ڀݚ‬ͷ໰୊఺͸ա‫ڈ‬ଟ͘ࢦఠ͞Ε͖ͯͨ͜ͱͰ͋Δ͕, ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸, Takagi et al. (2004) ͷ݁࿦͕࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷ֊ࠩΛऔΔ͔Ͳ͏͔ͱ͍͏࣌‫ྻܥ‬తૢ࡞ʹରͯ͠‫Ͱ݈ؤ‬͸ͳ͍ͱ͍͏ཹҙΛ͍ࣔࠦͯ͠Δ. ͞Βʹ Takagi etal. (2004) Ͱ͸, ԭೄຊ౔෮‫ޙؼ‬ͷ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ʹ͓͚Δαϯϓϧ‫͕ؒظ‬, ͦͷଞͷ௨՟ମ੍ʹ͓͚Δαϯϓϧ‫ؒظ‬ΑΓ΋͸Δ͔ʹ௕͍.*7 ɹ੓ࡦධՁͷจ‫ڧ͕ݙ‬ௐ͍ͯ͠ΔΑ͏ʹ, ΑΓਖ਼֬ͳ੓ࡦධՁͷͨΊʹ͸, ౰֘ॲஔͷલ‫ॲͰޙ‬ஔҎ֎ͷ‫ۉ͕ڥ؀ࡁܦ‬ҰͰ͋Δ͜ͱ͕ཧ૝తͰ͋Δ. ॲஔ‫ޙ‬ͷαϯϓϧ‫ؒظ‬ͷ௕͕͞ஶ͘͠ҟͳΔ͜ͱ
ʹΑΓ, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτʹର͢Δ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌͷਪ࿦͕, ʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯͱ͸௚઀ؔ܎ͷແ͍, ΑΓ࠷ۙʹԭೄͱຊ౔ͷؒʹ‫ͨͬ͜ى‬ଞͷ‫ڥ؀ࡁܦ‬ͷมԽΛ൓ө͍ͯ͠ΔՄೳੑΛഉআͰ͖ͳ͍.*8
ຊߘͰ͸, ೔ຊ੓෎૯ཧ෎౷‫ٿླྀͱہܭ‬੓෎‫ا‬ը‫ہ‬౷‫ܭ‬ி͕ຊ౔ 46 ౎ಓ෎‫ݝݝ‬ிॴࡏ஍ͱಹ೼ࢢͷͦΕͧΕͰ࣮ࢪͨ͠ʮখച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪʯʹ͓͚Δ, ԭೄฦؐલ‫ޙ‬ͷ 5 ೥ؒ (1970 ೥ 1 ݄͔Β 1974 ೥ 12 ݄) ͷ݁߹σʔλΛ෼ੳର৅ͱ͢Δ. ͜ΕʹΑΓ, ͦͷଞͷ‫ڥ؀ࡁܦ‬ͷ࣌‫Ͱ޲ํྻܥ‬ͷ‫࣭ۉ‬ੑΛՄೳͳ‫ݶ‬Γ୲อ͢ΔҰํͰ, ʮখച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪʯͷௐࠪର৅Ͱ͋Δଟछྨͷ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Λͦͷ෼ੳʹ‫ؚ‬ΊΔ͜ͱʹΑΓ, ΫϩεηΫγϣϯํ޲ͷ৘ใΛ‫͢༻׆‬Δ. ͦͷ্Ͱ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨ϨϕϧͰҰ෺ҰՁ͔Βͷဃ཭Λ‫͠ࢉܭ‬, ଟ͘ͷ඼໨͔ΒͳΔ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷඪຊ෼෍Λ‫͢࡯؍‬Δ. ͦͷ্Ͱରর‫܈‬ಛੑΛίϯτϩʔϧ্ͨ͠Ͱ, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍, ͓Αͼ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͦΕͧΕͷॲஔͷલ‫Ͱޙ‬, ౰֘෼෍ಛੑʹ౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙͳ͕ࠩ͋Δ͔Ͳ͏͔, DID ෼ੳΛ༻͍ͯ‫͢ূݕ‬Δ. Ҏ্͕ຊߘ͕࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτมಈʹ͓͚Δ௨՟ମ੍ͷ໾ׂʹରͯ͠઀ۙ͢Δ‫ֶࡁܦྔܭ‬తํ
๏Ͱ͋Δ.
ʮখച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪʯͷ৯ྉ඼߲໨ʹ‫·ؚ‬ΕΔ 41 ඼໨ͷαϯϓϧʹ‫͍ͨج‬, ຊߘͷ෼ੳͷओͳ݁࿦͸, ҎԼͷͱ͓ΓͰ͋Δ.*9 ·ͣ, 41 ඼໨ͷશͯΛର৅ͱͯ͠, ಹ೼ࢢͱຊ౔ओཁ౎ࢢؒͷ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷઈର஋ͷ෼෍Λ, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍, ͓Αͼ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷԼͰͦΕͧΕਪఆ͢Δͱ, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍Լʹ͓͍ͯͷΈ෼෍ͷ‫ܗ‬ঢ়͕༗ҙʹมԽ͠, ଟ͘ͷ඼໨ʹ͓͍࣮࣭ͯҝସϨʔτௐ੔્͕֐͞Ε͍ͯ
Δ͜ͱ͕‫͞࡯؍‬Εͨ. ͔͠͠೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍Լʹ͓͍ͯɺ෼෍ͷ‫ܗ‬ঢ়ͷ໌֬ͳมԽ͸֬ೝ͞Εͳ͔ͬͨ. ࣍ʹ,શ৯ྉ඼඼໨Λϒϥϯυ඼ͱϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ͷͦΕͧΕʹ෼͚ͯαϒαϯϓϧΛ࡞੒ͯ͠෼ੳΛߦ͏ͱ, ϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹ͓͍ͯ, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍Լͷ෼෍͚͕ͩ, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Լͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍Լͷ෼෍ͱ༗ҙʹ‫ܗ‬ঢ়͕ҟͳ͍ͬͯͨ. Ұํϊϯϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹ͓͍ͯ͸, ͦͷΑ͏ͳ෼෍ͷ‫ܗ‬ঢ়ͷ໌֬ͳҧ͍͸

3 ͭͷ௨՟ମ੍Ͱ‫͞࡯؍‬Εͳ͍. DID ෼ੳΛ༻͍ͨΑΓϑΥʔϚϧͳ‫ྔܭ‬෼ੳͷ݁Ռ΋্‫ه‬ͷ‫࡯؍‬Λཪ෇͚Δ. ͢ͳΘͪ, ॲஔ‫܈‬Λಹ೼ࢢͱຊ౔ओཁ౎ࢢؒͷ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷઈର஋ͱ͠, ରর‫܈‬Λಹ೼ࢢΛআ

*7 B ԁମ੍ͱถυϧମ੍ͷαϯϓϧ਺͸ͦΕͧΕ 86 ϲ݄ (1951 ೥ 7 ݄͔Β 1958 ೥ 8 ݄) ͱ 154 ϲ݄ (1958 ೥ 10 ݄͔Β 1971 ೥ 7 ݄)Ͱ͋Δͷʹର͠, ฦؐ‫ޙ‬ͷԁମ੍ͷαϯϓϧ਺͸ 353 ϲ݄ (1972 ೥ 8 ݄͔Β 2001 ೥ 12 ݄) Ͱ͋Δ.
*8 ྫ͑͹ྲྀ௨γεςϜͷޮ཰ԽʹΑΔ༌ૹඅͷ௿ԼͳͲ͕ߟ͑ΒΕΔͩΖ͏.
*9 ຊߘͷ෼ੳର৅͕ະͩʹ৯ྉ඼ 41 ߲໨ʹ‫ݶ‬ఆ͞Ε͍ͯΔओͳཧ༝͸, ຊߘ͕ௐ͍ࠪͯ͠Δαϯϓϧ‫͚͓ʹؒظ‬Δʮখച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪʯͷిࢠσʔλ͕ଘࡏͤͣ, શͯʮखଧͪʯͰσʔλΛ࡞੒ͤ͟ΔΛಘͳ͍෺ཧతɾ࣌ؒతͳ੍໿ʹ௚໘͖͔ͯͨ͠ΒͰ͋Δ. ຊߘͷ݁࿦
͕͋͘·Ͱ৯ྉ඼ͷσʔλಛੑͷ੍໿Λड͚͍ͯΔ͜ͱ͸ॏཁͳཹҙͰ͋Δ. 2017 ೥౓͔ΒՊֶ‫ڀݚ‬අॿ੒ (17H02542) Λड͚, σʔ
λϕʔεͷ֦ுΛߦ͍ͬͯΔ.

5

͍ͨຊ౔ओཁ౎ࢢؒͷ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷઈର஋ͱͯ͠ DID ෼ੳΛશαϯϓϧʹదԠ͢Δͱ, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Λ‫ج‬४ʹͯ͠ɺถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍͸౷‫ܭ‬తʹ΋‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ΋༗ҙʹ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔Λ્֐͢Δ͜ͱ͕ਪఆ͞Εͨ. ͞Βʹϒϥϯυ඼ͱϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ͷαϒαϯϓϧΛ༻͍ͨ෼ੳͷ݁Ռ, ͜ͷ 2 ͭͷ௨՟ମ੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔્֐ޮՌͷ‫ݯ‬ઘ͕ϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹ‫ى‬Ҽ͢Δ͜ͱ͕֬ೝ͞Εͨ.
ಛʹϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹ͓͍ͯ͸, χΫιϯγϣοΫ‫ޙ‬ͷԁߴυϧ҆͸, ಉҰϒϥϯυ඼ͷಹ೼ࢢͰͷԁ‫ݐ‬ͯՁ֨Λ, ຊ౔ओཁ౎ࢢʹ͓͚Δ΋ͷΑΓ΋ฏ‫ۉ‬తʹ௿͍ͯͨ͘͠. Ұํ, ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧͰ͸, ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ༗ҙͳ௨՟ମ੍ޮՌ͸‫͞࡯؍‬Εͳ͔ͬͨ.
ͦΕΏ͑, ຊߘͰͷࣗવ࣮‫໌͕ݧ‬Β͔ʹͨ͠ͷ͸, ·ͣมಈ૬৔੍͸౷‫ܭ‬తʹ΋‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ΋༗ҙͳ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔્֐ޮՌΛ࣋ͭ͜ͱ, ͞Βʹ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔Λଅਐ͢Δʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯ͸, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷޮՌͰଌΔ‫ݶ‬Γ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ͸༗ҙͰ͸ͳ͍͜ͱͰ͋Δ. ಛʹϒϥϯυ඼Ͱ͸ɺ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ͷ࠾༻͸, Ή͠Ζ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔Λ્֐͍ͯͨ͠Մೳੑ͢Β͋Δ. ϒϥϯυ඼ͷαϒαϯϓϧʹ‫·ؚ‬ΕΔ΄΅શͯͷ඼໨͕, ຊ౔ʹଘࡏ͢Δϝδϟʔͳ৯ྉ඼ϝʔΧʔͷ঎඼Ͱ͋Δ͜ͱΛߟྀ͢Δͱ, ্‫ه‬ͷ݁࿦͸, લड़ͷ Mussa(1986) ͷ 2 ͭͷ‫࡯؍‬Λ౿ऻ͢Δ΋ͷͰ͋Γ, ֎ࠃࢢ৔ͱࠃ಺ࢢ৔ͷͦΕͧΕͰ‫ݱ‬஍௨՟‫ߗͰݐ‬௚తʹՁ֨ઃఆΛߦ͏, ಠ઎‫ڝ‬૪తͳ༌ग़‫͕ۀا‬ଘࡏ͢ΔχϡʔέΠϯδΞϯϞσϧͷཧ࿦Ծઆʹ‫ۃ‬Ίͯ੔߹తͰ͋Δ. ·্ͨ‫݁ه‬࿦͸, ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍Λแ‫ݻؚͨ͠‬ఆ૬৔੍͸, มಈ૬৔੍ΑΓ, ๵қࡒͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτΛ҆ఆԽͤΔͱ͍͏ Berka

et al. (2012) ͷ੓ࡦ‫ؚ‬ҙΛ࠶֬ೝ͢Δ΋ͷͰ͸͋Δ͕, Cavallo et al. (2014a) ͷ੓ࡦ‫ؚ‬ҙͰ͋Δ, ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Λ
্ճΔ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍‫ݻ‬༗ͷޮՌΛೝΊͳ͍.
ຊߘͷߏ੒͸ҎԼͷ௨ΓͰ͋Δ. ࣍અͰ͸, ຊߘͷࣗવ࣮‫ڥ؀ݧ‬ͷଥ౰ੑΛٞ࿦͢ΔͨΊ, ୈ 2 ࣍ੈքରઓ‫ޙ‬ͷླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬Λ֓આ͢Δ. ୈ 3 અ͸ຊߘͷσʔλΛղઆ͢Δ. ୈ 4 અͰຊߘͷ‫ྔܭ‬෼ੳͷ݁ՌΛใࠂ͠, ୈ 5અͰ݁‫͢ޠ‬Δ.

2 ࣗવ࣮‫ڥ؀ݧ‬ͷଥ౰ੑɿຊ౔ฦؐલ‫ޙ‬ͷླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ຊઅͰ͸, ଠฏ༸ઓ૪຤‫ظ‬ͷԭೄઓʹ͓͚Δถ‫܉‬ԭೄ্཮͔Βԭೄຊ౔ฦؐʹ͔͚ͯͷླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄͷ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬Λ֓આ͢Δ͜ͱʹΑͬͯ, ຊߘʹ͓͍ͯߟ࡯͢Δࣗવ࣮‫ڥ؀ݧ‬ͷଥ౰ੑΛٞ࿦͢Δ.*10 ɹಛʹ (i) ԭೄͷ೔ຊຊ౔͔Βͷ෼཭ͱ࠶‫ؼ‬ଐ͕, ‫ࡁܦ‬తͳཧ༝ʹ‫͍ͨͮج‬બ୒Ͱ͸ͳ͘, ԭೄઓऴ݁ͱԭೄͷ‫ࣄ܉‬తɾ஍੓ֶతॏཁੑͱ͍͏‫ܦ‬ࡁ֎ੜతཁҼʹΑܾͬͯఆ͞Εͨ఺, (ii) ౰࣌ͷԭೄ‫͕ࡁܦ‬, ถ‫܉‬઎ྖԼʹ͓͍ͯ΋, ࣮෺໘Ͱ͸೔ຊຊ౔‫ʹݍࡁܦ‬༥߹͞Ε͍ͯͨ఺, (iii) ୈ 5 ࣍๏ఆ௨՟มߋҎ߱ͷถυϧ௨՟ମ੍͕, ԭೄ։ൃͷͨΊ֎ࢿ༠கΛ͸͔ͬͨถ‫܉‬੓෎ͷ੓࣏తҙࢥܾఆͷ݁ՌͰ͋Γ, ԭೄͱ೔ຊຊ౔ͱͷ૬ରՁ֨ߏ଄ͱ͸தཱతͰ͋ͬͨ఺, ͦͯ͠ (iv)1971 ೥ 8݄ͷχΫιϯɾγϣοΫҎ߱ͷมಈ૬৔੍Ҡߦ͕, ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ‫ͯͬͱʹࡁܦ‬͸ҙਤ͞Εͣ֎ੜతʹൃੜͨ͠ࠃࡍ௨
՟ମ੍্ͷߏ଄มԽͰ͋ͬͨ఺Λ, ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄͷ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ΛৼΓฦΓઆ໌͢Δ.

2.1 ೔ຊຊ౔͔Βͷ෼཭ͱฦؐͷ‫֎ࡁܦ‬ੜੑ೔ຊͱ࿈߹ࠃ‫܉‬ͷؒͰߦΘΕͨԭೄઓʹ͓͍ͯ, ࿈߹‫܉‬ͷओྗΛͳ͢ถࠃւ‫͕܉‬ԭೄຊౡʹ্཮ͨ͠ͷ͸ 1945
೥ 4 ݄ 1 ೔Ͱ͋ͬͨ. ಉ೔, ถւ‫܉‬͸ถࠃւ‫܉܉‬੓෎ಛผ෍ࠂୈ 1 ߸Λൃ෍͠, ถւ‫ʹ܉‬ΑΔ‫܉‬੓෎͕थཱΛએ‫ݴ‬͢Δ. Ҏ߱ 1972 ೥ 5 ݄ 15 ೔ͷԭೄຊ౔ฦؐʹࢸΔ·Ͱ, ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ͸ถ‫܉‬ͷ઎ྖԼʹஔ͔ΕΔ͜ͱʹͳͬͨ. ԭ*10 ຊઅʹ͓͚Δླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ͷ‫ه‬ड़͸ʮઓ‫ޙ‬ԭೄ‫( ࢙ࡁܦ‬ҎԼʮ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ʯ)ʯ
ʢླྀ‫ ߦۜٿ‬1986ʣʹΑΔͱ͜Ζ͕େ͖͍. ·ͨ Takagi etal.(2004) ͸ӳจʹΑΔ֓આΛ͍ͯ͠Δ.

6

ೄ઎ྖͱ‫܉‬੓ࢪߦͷ౰ॳͷ໨త͸, ԭೄΛଠฏ༸ઓ૪຤‫ظ‬ͷର೔߈ུͷ‫ڮ‬಄ᆙʹ͢Δ͜ͱͰ͋ͬͨ. 1945 ೥ 7 ݄

26 ೔ͷ೔ຊͷϙπμϜએ‫ݴ‬ड୚ʹΑΔແ৚݅߱෬ʹΑΓ, ԭೄͷ઎ྖͱ‫܉‬੓ࢪߦͷ౰ॳͷ໨త͸ୡ੒͞ΕΔ͕, ԭೄ͸೔ຊʹ࠶‫ؼ‬ଐ͞Εͣ, ถ‫ʹ܉‬ΑΔ‫܉‬੓͸‫ܧ‬ଓ͞ΕΔ͜ͱʹͳΔ. ࿈߹‫܉‬౷߹ࢀ๳ຊ෦͸, ԭೄͷ஍੓ֶతॏཁ
ੑͱ‫ࣄ܉‬తՁ஋Λ‫͘ڧ‬ೝࣝ͠, ถࠃΛ།Ұͷࢪ੓ऀͱ͢Δ৴ୗ౷࣏ʹΑΔԭೄͷอ༗‫ܧ‬ଓΛ‫͘ڧ‬ओு͢Δ. Ұํ,ถࠃࠃ຿ল͸ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ͸೔ຊ͕อ༗͢Δͱͱ΋ʹඇ‫ࣄ܉‬Խ͞ΕΔॾখౡͱ͍͏ೝࣝΛ͍࣋ͬͯͨ. ͜ͷ౷߹ࢀ๳ຊ෦ͱถࠃࠃ຿লͷؒͷҙ‫ݟ‬ରཱʹΑΓ, ԭೄઓऴ݁௚‫ޙ‬ͷԭೄอ༗ͷܾఆͱߦ੓ओମͷ֬ఆ͸ҙਤతʹʮཹอʯ͞Εͨ. ͜ͷ͍ΘΏΔʮཹอ੓ࡦʯʹΑΓ, ͦͷ‫ޙ‬ͷԭೄ੓ࡦ͸ࠞ໎͠, ͦͷ෮‫ڵ‬ɾৼ‫ࡦڵ‬ͷಓ‫͔ͨͬͳཱ͕ͨے‬.
͜ͷཹอ੓ࡦ͕ࣄ্࣮ղফ͞Ε, ถ‫܉‬੓ʹΑΔԭೄ෮‫΁ڵ‬ͷίϛοτϝϯτ͕ຊ֨Խ͢Δͷ͸, ถ‫܉‬ͷԭೄ௕‫ظ‬อཹ͕ถࠃ੓෎͓ΑͼτϧʔϚϯେ౷ྖʹΑΓਖ਼ࣜʹঝೝ͞ΕΔ 1949 ೥ 5 ݄ 6 ೔Λ଴ͨͳ͚Ε͹ͳΒͳ͔ͬͨͷͰ
͋Δ.*11ԭೄͷ೔ຊຊ౔΁ͷฦ͕ؐॳΊͯਖ਼ࣜʹ೔ถؒͰද໌͞Εͨͷ͸, 1967 ೥ 11 ݄ 15 ೔ͷࠤ౻ɾδϣϯιϯձஊ‫ൃޙ‬ද͞Εͨʮࠤ౻૯ཧɾδϣϯιϯେ౷ྖ‫ڞ‬ಉ੠໌ʯʹ͓͍ͯͰ͋Δ.*12 ౰࣌ถ‫ʹ܉‬ΑΔ౔஍ऩ༰໰୊ʢ͍ΘΏΔʮ‫༻܉‬஍໰୊ʯʣ͕ԭೄશౡʹൃల͢Δʮౡ͙ΔΈಆ૪ʯΛҾ͖‫͜͠ى‬, ถ‫ʹ܉‬ର͢Δԭೄॅຽͷ൓ൃ͕ඇৗʹ‫ڧ‬·ͬͨ. ԭೄॅຽͷຊ౔෮‫ؼ‬ӡಈͷߴ·Γͱ 1960 ೥ͷ೔ถ҆อվఆͰ‫ۓ‬ுԽͨ͠೔ถؔ܎ʹ௚໘͠, ถࠃ຿ল͸೔ถؔ܎ͷम෮ͱ҆อମ੍ͷҡ࣋‫ڧ‬ԽͷͨΊʹ, ೔ຊͱԭೄͷཁ੥΍‫ײ‬৘ʹ഑ྀͨ͠ΑΓҰ૚ͷ੓࣏తৡาΛओு
͢Δ. Ұํ, ถ‫܉‬෦͸ԭೄʹର͢ΔΑΓҰ૚ͷ੓࣏తৡา͸, ԭೄ‫ج‬஍ͷઓུతՁ஋Λେ͖͘ᆝଛ͢Δ͜ͱʹͳΔͱͯ͠ਅͬ޲͔Β൓ରͨ͠. ͜ͷถࠃ຿লͱ‫܉‬෦ͷؒͰઌӶԽͨ͠ҙ‫ݟ‬ରཱ͕ղফ͞Ε, ԭೄͷࢪ੓‫ݖ‬ฦؐʹถࠃαΠυ͕େ͖͘܏͘ͷ͸, 1966 ೥ 6 ݄ͷࠃ຿লͱࠃ๷লͷϝϯόʔͰߏ੒͞ΕΔʮླྀ‫ٿ‬ಛผ࡞‫ۀ‬൝ʯʹΑΔ, ԭೄ໰୊ʹؔ͢Δৄࡉͳ‫ݕ‬౼ͷ݁ՌΛड͚ͨ‫ͨͬ͋Ͱޙ‬. ͦ͜Ͱ͸, Ծʹԭೄͷࢪ੓‫ݖ‬Λ೔ຊʹฦؐͨ͠ͱͯ͠΋, ೔ถ҆อԼͰओཁͳ‫ج‬஍‫ػ‬ೳ͸ҡ࣋ՄೳͰ͋Δͱ͍͏݁࿦ʹࢸΓ, ถ‫܉‬෦͸ฦؐ൓ରͷ‫ͳߗڧ‬ଶ౓ΛೈԽͤͨ͞. ೔ຊ੓෎΋ԭೄͷ෮‫ؼ‬ӡಈͷܹԽͱ, ࠃ಺ੈ࿦ͷԭೄ໰୊ʹର͢Δؔ৺ͷߴ·Γʹ‫͍ڧ‬੓࣏త‫ײػة‬Λ๊͖, ԭೄࢪ੓‫ݖ‬ͷૣ‫ظ‬ฦؐͷඞཁੑΛ‫͘ڧ‬ೝࣝ͠͸͡Ίͨ. ͔͠͠, ϕτφϜઓ૪Λ͸͡Ί‫ۃ‬౦ΞδΞ৘੎ͷ‫ۓ‬ഭԽͷதʹ͓͍ͯ, ԭೄ‫ج‬஍ͷ‫ࣄ܉‬తॏཁੑ͸ӹʑ‫·ڧ‬Γ, ԭೄࢪ੓‫ݖ‬ͷ೔ຊฦؐ͸ಉ࣌ʹΞϝϦΧͷԭೄ‫ج‬஍ͷࣗ༝ӡ༻Λ‫׬‬શʹ୲อͨ͠΋ͷͰͳ͚Ε͹ͳΒͳ͔ͬͨ.
ࠤ౻ɾδϣϯιϯ‫ڞ‬ಉ੠໌ʹ͓͍ͯ͸, ࢪ੓‫ݖ‬ฦؐͷํ਑Λ೔ถؒͰ‫ڞ‬༗͕ͨ͠, ۩ମతͳฦؐ೔࣌ͱͦͷ৚݅ʹ͍ܾͭͯఆʹ͸ࢸΒͣઌૹΓͱͳͬͨ. ͦͯ͠ԭೄฦ͕ؐ೔ถؒͰਖ਼ࣜʹܾఆ͞Εͨͷ͸, 1969 ೥ 11 ݄ 21 ೔ͷࠤ౻ɾχΫιϯձஊ‫ʹޙ‬ද໌͞Εͨʮࠤ౻૯ཧɾχΫιϯେ౷ྖ‫ڞ‬ಉ੠໌ʯʹ͓͍ͯͰ͋Γ, ͦ͜Ͱ 1972 ೥தͷԭೄࢪ੓‫ݖ‬ͷฦ͕ؐ໌‫͞ه‬Εͨ. ͦͷ 1 ೥‫ޙ‬ͷ 1971 ೥ 6 ݄ 17 ೔ʹʮԭೄฦؐ‫ڠ‬ఆʯ͕೔ถؒͰௐҹ͞ΕΔ. ͜ͷԭೄฦؐʹ൐͍, ถࠃ͸ฦؐ‫ޙ‬΋ถ‫ج܉‬஍ͷ‫ػ‬ೳΛଛͳΘͣ, ೔ถ҆อ৚໿౳೔ถ‫ڠ‬ௐମ੍Λҡ࣋‫ڧ‬ԽͰ͖, ͞Βʹ͸ฦؐ‫ޙ‬ͷԭೄߦ੓؅ཧͷࡒ੓తෛ୲Λઅ‫͖Ͱݮ‬Δͱ͍͏རӹΛอূͰ͖ͨ. ·ͨ೔ຊଆ΋෼ׂ͞Ε͍ͯͨྖ౔ͳ͍͠౷࣏‫ݖ‬Λճ෮͠, ͦΕʹΑΓࠃ಺ͷ੓࣏త‫ۓ‬ு͕େ෯ʹ؇࿨ͨ͜͠ͱ, ·ͨͦͷ݁Ռͱͯ͠೔ถ҆อ৚໿ͷ‫ܧ‬ଓ͕Մೳͱͳͬͨ౳ͷརӹΛ‫ڗ‬डͰ͖ͨ. ͜ͷΑ͏ʹԭೄͷຊ౔ฦؐͷഎ‫ʹޙ‬͸, ೔ถ੓෎ͷ‫ۃ‬Ίͯ੓࣏తͳ
༠Ҽ͕͋Γ, ͦΕ͸ʮԭೄͷҙࢤ΍ओுͱ͔͔ΘΓͳ͘, ೔ถ૒ํʹͱͬͯͦΕͧΕͷ҆શอোମ੍Λ֬อ͢ΔͨΊෆՄܽͷ΋ͷͰ͋Γ, ·͞ʹ೔ถ‫ڠ‬ௐମ੍Λࢧ͑Δ݁અ఺ʯʢ‫ ࢙ࡁܦ‬p.899ʣͩͬͨͷͰ͋Δ.
Ҏ্ͷΑ͏ʹ, ԭೄઓऴ݁‫ޙ‬, ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ͕೔ຊͷ‫ؼ‬ଐΛ཭Εߦ੓తʹ೔ຊ͔Β෼཭͞Ε, ·ͨϕτφϜઓ૪ఀઓ*11 ࠃՈ҆શอোձٞʮ߹ऺࠃͷର೔੓ࡦʹؔ͢Δॾ‫ࠃؖ‬ʯ(NSC13/3)*12 ʮ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ʯʹΑΔͱ, ౰ॳࠤ౻͕ԭೄฦؐ໰୊ͱؔΘΓΛ࣋ͬͨͷ͸, ౰࣌ͷࣗຽౘ૯ࡋ஑ా൏ਓͱͷ૯ࡋબʹ͓͚ΔΩϟονϑϨʔζ࡞੒ͷͨΊͰ͋Γ, ʮͦͷղܾʹ࢖໋‫ײ‬Λ‫ݟ‬ग़͔ͨ͠ΒͰ͸ͳ͘, ͋͘·Ͱ΋૯ࡋબ‫༻ڍ‬εϩʔΨϯͱͯ͠ͷ੓࣏తޮՌʹ‫ظ‬଴ͯ͠ͷ΋ͷʯͩͬͨ (‫ ࢙ࡁܦ‬p.697). ͜ͷ఺͔Β΋ԭೄͷฦ͕ؐ‫ۃ‬Ίͯ੓࣏తͳҙࢥܾఆͷ݁Ռͩͬͨ͜ͱ͕ྨਪ͞ΕΔ.

7

‫ޙ‬ຊ౔΁ͷฦ͕࣮ؐ‫͢ݱ‬Δͷ͸, ԭೄͷ‫ࣄ܉‬తɾ஍੓ֶతॏཁੑΛೝ͍ࣝͯͨ͠ถ‫ͱ܉‬ถࠃ੓෎ͷઓ্ུͷҙࢥܾఆͷ‫ͱͨͬ͋͜Ͱ݁ؼ‬Λೝࣝ͢Δ͜ͱ͸, ຊߘͷࣗવ࣮‫ڥ؀ݧ‬ͷଥ౰ੑʹͱͬͯ‫ۃ‬ΊͯॏཁͰ͋Δ. ຊߘͷࣗવ࣮‫Ͱݧ‬͸, ೔ຊͷ 47 ओཁ౎ࢢؒͷશͯͷϖΞΛ, ಹ೼ࢢΛ‫ؚ‬ΉϖΞΛ‫ؚ‬Ήॲஔ‫ͱ܈‬, ͦͷଞͷ౎ࢢؒϖΞΛ‫ؚ‬Ήରর‫ʹ܈‬෼ׂ͢Δ͕, ͜ͷૢ࡞͕‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ಺ੜతͰ͸ͳ͘, ถ‫܉‬ͷԭೄౡ্཮ͱ͍͏‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ֎ੜతͳྺ࢙తΠϕϯτͱ೔ถ‫ڠ‬ௐମ੍ͷҡ࣋‫ڧ‬Խͱ͍͏‫ۃ‬Ίͯ௕‫ظ‬తͳࢹ఺ʹཱͬͨ 2 ࠃؒͷ੓࣏ܾఆʹΑͬͯͳ͞Ε͍ͯΔ. ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸, গͳ͘ͱ΋ॲஔ‫ݻ܈‬༗ͷޮՌΛআ‫Ͱͱ͋ͨ͠ڈ‬͸, ຊߘͷ੓ࡦධՁʹ͓͍ͯ, ॲஔͷ಺ੜੑʹ൐͏ਪఆ্ͷόΠΞε͕ͳ͍͜ͱΛ‫͍ͯࠦࣔ͘͠ڧ‬Δ.

2.2 ຊ౔‫ͱݍࡁܦ‬ͷ࣮෺‫্ࡁܦ‬ͷ༥߹࣍ʹถ‫܉‬઎ྖԼͷླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ‫͕ࡁܦ‬, ࣮෺‫ࡁܦ‬໘Ͱ͸೔ຊຊ౔‫ʹࡁܦ‬༥߹͞Ε͍ͯͨ͜ͱΛ֬ೝ͢Δ. ΋͠ԭೄͱຊ౔ͷ࣮෺‫׬͕ࡁܦ‬શʹ෼཭͞Ε͍ͯͯ, ঎඼औҾࣗମ͕ෆ‫ͨͬ͋Ͱൃ׆‬Β, ͦ΋ͦ΋๵қࡒʹ͓͚ΔҰ෺ҰՁͷ෼ੳΛߦ͏ҙ͕ٛͳ͍. ͦΕΏ͑ถࠃ઎ྖԼ౰࣌ʹ͓͍ͯ͑͞, ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ‫࣮ʹ͔͍͕ࡁܦ‬෺໘ʹ͓͍ͯຊ౔‫ܦ‬ࡁͱີʹؔ࿈͍͔ͯͨ֬͠ೝ͢Δ͜ͱ͸, ຊߘͷ෼ੳͷҙٛΛ୲อ͢Δ্ͰඞཁෆՄܽͰ͋Δ.
ถ‫܉‬઎ྖԼͷԭೄ‫ࡁܦ‬ͷಛ௃Λ୺తʹࣔͤ͹, ʮ‫ج‬஍ґଘ‫ܕ‬༌ೖ‫ࡁܦ‬ʯͰ͋ͬͨ. ԭೄઓऴ݁‫ޙ‬, Ұ੾ͷੜ࢈ೳྗ͕փᗙͱ‫ͨ͠ؼ‬ԭೄ‫ࡁܦ‬͸, ৗʹ෺ࢿෆ଍ʹΑΔΠϯϑϨѹྗʹ೰·͞Εͨ. ಛʹ 1949 ೥ 5 ݄ʹถ‫܉‬ͷ௕‫ظ‬อ༗͕֬ఆͨ͠ͷͪ, 1950 ೥͔Β 52 ೥ʹ͔͚ͯถ‫جٱ߃܉‬஍‫ݐ‬ઃͷϒʔϜʢ͍ΘΏΔʮ‫ࣄ޻܉‬ϒʔϜʯʣ͕͓͜Δͱ,ླྀ‫ٿ‬Ҭ಺ͷ෺ࢿधཁʹର͢Δ‫څڙ‬ෆ଍͕‫ࡏݦ‬Խ͢Δ. ͞Βʹ‫ج‬஍‫ݐ‬ઃͷͨΊͷ࿑ಇྗ֬อͷͨΊ, ௞ۚΛେ෯ʹ্ঢͤ͞Δඞཁ͕͋Γ, ͜ͷ௞্ۚঢ͕ΠϯϑϨΛ͞ΒʹՃ଎ͤ͞Δ͓ͦΕ͕͋ͬͨ. ͜ͷ໰୊ʹରͯ͠, ถ‫܉‬੓෎
͸ 1950 ೥ 4 ݄ 12 ೔ʹ෍ྩୈ 6 ߸ʮླྀ‫ྻٿ‬ౡʹ͓͚Δ‫܉‬ͷ B ԁަ‫཰׵‬ʯΛൃ෍͠, ౰࣌ͷ๏ఆ௨՟Ͱ͋Δ B ԁͷ‫ݻ‬ఆҝସΛ 1 υϧ=120B ԁʹมߋ͢Δ.*13 ౰࣌, ԁυϧϨʔτ͕ 1 υϧ=360 ԁͰ͋ͬͨ͜ͱΛߟ͑Δͱ, ͜ͷ BԁͷରυϧϨʔτͷԼ, ͍͔ʹ೔ຊԁʹରͯ͠ B ԁ͕աେʹධՁ͞Ε͔ͨ༰қʹ஌Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ΔͩΖ͏. ͜ͷ੓ࡦతʹ༠ಋ͞Εͨ B ԁߴͷͨΊ, ԭೄͷର೔༌ೖՁ֨͸௿͘ԡ͑͞ΒΕ, ԭೄ͕೔ຊ͔Β҆Ձͳ෺ࢿΛେྔʹ༌ೖ͠෺ࢿෆ଍Λ؇࿨͢Δ͜ͱ͕ՄೳʹͳͬͨͷͰ͋Δ. Ұํ, ԭೄ͸࠭౶ɾεΫϥοϓɾύΠϯҎ֎͸ओཁͳ༌ग़࢈
‫ۀ‬Λ͓࣋ͬͯΒͣ, ݁Ռͱͯ͠ԭೄ͸߃ৗతʹ‫ͳֹڊ‬ର೔๵қऩࢧͷ੺ࣈΛ‫্͢ܭ‬Δ. ͜ͷର֎੺ࣈ͸ถ‫ج܉‬஍ʹର͢Δถࠃ༧ࢉͱ೔ถ྆੓෎ͷ‫ࡁܦ‬ԉॿʹΑͬͯϑΝΠφϯε͞Ε͍ͯͨ.
͜ͷΑ͏ͳԭೄͷຊ౔΁ͷ༌ೖґଘ͸, 1950 ೥ 10 ݄ 20 ೔෇෍ྩୈ 26 ߸ʮླྀ‫ྻٿ‬ౡʹ͓͚Δ֎ࠃ๵қ͓Αͼ֎ࠃҝସʯʹ‫ͮ͘ج‬༌ೖͷຽؒࣗ༝Խ‫͞ޙ‬Βʹ‫͍( ͨͬ·ڧ‬ΘΏΔʮL/C ࣌୅ʯ). ༌ೖֹ͸ 1958 ೥ʹ͸ 1951 ೥ͱൺ΂ 7 ഒ·Ͱ֦େ͠, ԭೄ‫ࡁܦ‬ͷ༌ೖґଘ౓ʢࠃຽॴಘʹର͢Δ༌ೖͷׂ߹) ͸ 1957 ೥ʹ͸ 65.5% Λ‫ه‬࿥͍ͯ͠
Δ.*14 ͞Βʹຊ౔͔Βͷ༌ೖ͸શ༌ೖֹͷ 71.6% Λ઎Ίͨ.*15 ͜ͷΑ͏ʹ, ‫ج‬஍ґଘ‫ܕ‬༌ೖ‫ͯ͠ͱࡁܦ‬ಛ௃͚ͮΒΕΔԭೄͷ‫׆ࡁܦ‬ಈ͸ຊ౔‫͍͍ͨͯͭͼ݁͘ڧͱࡁܦ‬. ʮ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ʯ͔ΒҾ༻͢Ε͹, ʮ‫͢ݴ׵‬Ε͹... ԭೄ‫ࡁܦ‬͸ຊ౔‫ࡁܦ‬ͷதʹแઁ͞Ε͍ͯΔ. ༌ೖߴͷ 80% ۙ͘Λຊ౔ʹґଘ͠, ༌ೖґଘ౓͕ 70% ͍ۙԭೄʹ͓͚Δ঎඼Ձ֨ମ‫͕ܥ‬ຊ౔ͷՁ֨ମ‫ͱܥ‬ͷؔ࿈Ͱܾ·Δͷ͸౰વͰ͋Δ. ͞Βʹ, ௞ۚਫ४΋୯ʹౡ಺ʹ͓͚Δध‫܎ؔڅ‬ͷΈͰͳ͘, ຊ౔‫ࡁܦ‬ͷҰ஍Ҭͱܾͯ͠ఆ͞ΕΔཁૉ͕ଟ͘, ࣄ࣮, ࿑ಇྗͷҠಈ΋େྔʹͷ΅͍ͬͯΔͳͲ, ࣮෺‫ࡁܦ‬ͷ͋ΒΏΔ໘Ͱຊ౔‫ͱࡁܦ‬༥߹ؔ܎ʯʢʮ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ʯp.1082ʣ͕ଘࡏ͍ͯͨ͠ͷͰ͋Δ.

*13 B ԁʢB ‫܉ܕ‬ථԁʣ͕ԭೄͷ།Ұͷ๏ఆ௨՟ʹࢦఆ͞Εͨͷ͸, 1948 ೥ 6 ݄ 26 ೔ʹެ෍͞Εͨถࠃ‫܉‬੓ຊ෦ಛผ෍ࠂୈ 29 ߸ʮ௨՟ͷަ‫৽ͱ׵‬௨աൃߦʯʹΑΔ (ୈ 4 ࣍๏ఆ௨՟มߋ).
*14 ༌ग़΋ߟྀͨ͠๵қґଘ౓͸ 79.5% Ͱ͋ͬͨ.
*15 ༌ग़ͷຊ౔ൺ཰͸ 1958 ೥ʹ͓͍ͯ 88.3% Ͱ͋ͬͨ.

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·ͨాத (1980) ͸, ෮‫ؼ‬Ҏ‫ޙ‬ͷԭೄʹ͓͚Δ෺Ձ෼ੳͷং࿦ʹ͓͍ͯʮ... ຊ౔෮‫ؼ‬લ͔Βԭೄ‫ࡁܦ‬͸๵қґଘ౓͕ߴ͘, ͔ͭ༌ग़, ༌ೖʹ઎ΊΔ೔ຊͷ΢ΣΠτ͸ஶ͘͠ߴ͔ͬͨ. ͜ͷΑ͏ͳ܏޲͸෮‫ޙؼ‬΋ಉ༷ʹଓ͍͍ͯΔ. ͜ͷΑ͏ʹ೔ຊ‫ࡁܦ‬ʢຊ౔‫ࡁܦ‬ʣ΁ͷ‫͍ڧ‬ґଘੑͱ͍͏ೝࣝͷԼͰ, ԭೄ‫ݝ‬ͷ෺Ձಈ޲΍ͦͷཁҼ෼ੳΛࢼΈ
Δͱ͖, ԭೄ‫ݝ‬ಠࣗͷࣄ৘͕͋Δͱͯ͠΋਼੎ͱͯ͠͸೔ຊ‫͚͓ʹࡁܦ‬Δ෺Ձͷಈ޲ͱಉ͡Ͱ͋Γ, ͦΕΛ‫ن‬ఆ͍ͯ͠ΔཁҼʹ͍ͭͯ΋ஶ͍͠૬ҧ͕͋Δͱ͸ߟ͑ΒΕͳ͍ʯͱ‫͍ͯ͠࡯؍‬Δ. ಛʹ͜ͷాத (1980) ͷओு͸, ຊߘͷ෼ੳ‫͍͓ͯʹؒظ‬, ԭೄͱ೔ຊຊ౔͸෺Ձ্ͷ௕‫ظ‬τϨϯυΛ‫ڞ‬༗͍ͯͨ͜͠ͱΛ͓ࣔࠦͯ͠Γ, ຊߘͷ DID ෼ੳ͕ͦͷॏཁͳલఏ৚݅Λຬͨ͢͜ͱΛҙຯ͍ͯ͠Δ.

2.3 ୈ 5 ࣍๏ఆ௨՟มߋʹΑΔถυϧ௨՟ମ੍લड़ͷ௨Γຊߘ͸, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍, ͓Αͼ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷ 3 ͭͷ௨՟ମ੍Λ෼ੳର৅ͱ͍ͯ͠Δ. ถυϧମ੍͔Β೔ຊԁମ੍΁ͷมߋ͸, ຊ౔෮‫ʹؼ‬൐͏ࢪ੓‫ݖ‬ฦؐʹΑΔ΋ͷͰ͋Γ, ·ͨถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍͔Βถυϧมಈ૬৔੍΁ͷҠߦ͸, ࣍અͰ‫ه‬ड़͢ΔχΫιϯɾγϣοΫʹΑΔ΋ͷͰ͋Δ. ҎԼ͜ͷઅͰ͸, ͦ΋ͦ΋ͳͥླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄʹถυϧ௨՟ମ੍͕੒ཱͨ͠ͷ͔֓આ͢Δ. ͦͯͦ͠Ε͕, ຊߘͷ෼ੳର৅Ͱ͋Δླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄͱ೔ຊຊ౔ͷ૬ରՁ֨ߏ଄ͱ͸தཱతͳ, ถ‫܉‬੓෎ͷ੓࣏తҙࢥܾఆͷ݁ՌͰ͋ͬͨ͜ͱΛࣔ͢.
ถυϧ͕ླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄʹ͓͚Δ།Ұͷ๏ఆ௨՟ͱͯ͠‫ن‬ఆ͞Εͨͷ͸, 1959 ೥ 9 ݄ 15 ೔ެ෍ͷߴ౳ห຿‫׭‬෍ྩୈ

14 ߸ʮ௨՟ʯʹΑͬͯͰ͋ͬͨ. ͜ͷ෍ྩʹΑΓ, ͦΕ·Ͱͷ๏ఆ௨՟Ͱ͋ͬͨ B ԁ͸, 1 υϧ=120B ԁͷϨʔτͰถυϧʹ‫੍ڧ‬తʹަ‫͞׵‬Εͨʢୈ 5 ࣍๏ఆ௨՟มߋʣ. ैલͷ B ԁ௨՟ମ੍ͷ‫ج‬ຊతੑ࣭͸, B ԁൃߦͷཪ෇͚ͱͯ͠ถυϧΛ४උͱͯ͠ੵΉΧϨϯγʔɾϘʔυ (currency board) ੍ʹ͋Δ. ͢ͳΘͪ, B ԁͷҬ಺‫څڙ‬͸ԭೄͷυϧ४උͱҰରҰʹ݁ͼ͖ͭ, ର֎ऩࢧ͕ࠇࣈʹͳΓυϧ४උ͕૿͑Δͱ, ಉ࣌ʹԭೄͷ B ԁ՟ฎ‫͑૿͕ྔڅڙ‬,‫ʹٯ‬ର֎ऩࢧ͕੺ࣈʹͳΔͱ, υϧ४උ͕‫ݮ‬গ͠, ಉ࣌ʹ B ԁ՟ฎ‫ྔڅڙ‬΋‫ݮ‬গ͢Δ. ‫͢ݴ׵‬Δͱ, B ԁ௨՟ମ੍͸, ถυϧΛʮۚʯͱΈͳͨ͠ʮۚຊҐ੍ʯͱߟ͑Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ. ಉ͜͡ͱ͕ถυϧ௨՟ମ੍ʹ΋͋ͯ͸·Δ. ԭೄʹถυϧͷൃߦ‫͕ݖ‬ແ͍Ҏ্, ର֎ऩࢧ͕ࠇࣈʹͳΓ, ԭೄҬ಺ʹυϧࢿ͕ۚྲྀೖ͢Ε͹, Ҭ಺ͷถυϧ՟ฎ‫ڙ‬‫ྔڅ‬͸૿͑, ‫ʹٯ‬ର֎ऩࢧ͕੺ࣈͰ, υϧࢿ͕ۚྲྀग़͢Δͱ, ಉֹ෼ถυϧ՟ฎ‫څڙ‬΋‫͏·ͯͬ͠ݮ‬.
͜ͷΑ͏ʹ B ԁ௨՟ମ੍ͱถυϧ௨՟ମ੍͸, ಉ͡௨՟ମ੍্ͷੑ࣭Λ‫ڞ‬༗͍ͯͨ͠. ͦͷ্Ͱ, ୈ 5 ࣍๏ఆ௨՟มߋʹΑͬͯถ‫܉‬੓෎͕‫ऀޙͯ͑׶‬ͷ௨՟ମ੍΁ͷมߋΛ࣮ߦͨ͠ཧ༝͕, ຊߘͷ෼ੳʹͱͬͯॏཁͰ͋Δ. ݁࿦͔Β‫͑ݴ‬͹, ถυϧ௨՟ମ੍ͷԼͰླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄ‫ࡁܦ‬ͷࣗ༝ԽΛ͸͔Γ, ͦΕΛ࣋ͬͯ֎ࠃࢿຊΛ༠க͠ԭೄͷ‫ܦ‬ࡁ։ൃΛଅਐͤ͞Δ͜ͱ͕, ถ‫܉‬੓෎ͷ‫ࡁܦ‬੓ࡦ͔ͩͬͨΒͰ͋Δ. લड़ͨ͠ͱ͓Γ, ౰࣌ԭೄॅຽͷ൓ถӡಈɾຊ౔෮‫ؼ‬ӡಈ͕ܹԽ͍ͯͨ͠. ͜ͷԭೄͷ੓࣏తෆ҆ఆԽʹ௚໘͠, ถ‫܉‬੓෎͸, ԭೄͷ‫ࡁܦ‬త෱ࢱͷ޲্Λ࣋ͬͯରॲ͠Α͏ͱͨ͠. ͜ͷͨΊ, ԭೄ‫ࡁܦ‬։ൃͷଅਐ͕ඞཁͱͳ͍͕ͬͯͨ, ౰࣌ΞΠθϯϋϫʔ‫ڞ‬࿨ౘ੓‫ݖ‬Լͷถࠃͷ‫ۓ‬ॖࡒ੓੓ࡦͷԼ, ԭೄؔ܎༧ࢉ΋ॖখɾ࡟‫͞ݮ‬Ε, ԭೄ։ൃࢿۚͷ֬อ͕ࠔ೉ʹͳ͍ͬͯͨ. ͢ͳΘͪ, Bԁ௨՟ମ੍ॳ‫ͨ͠ݱ࣮ʹظ‬, ‫ج‬஍ऩೖʹཔΔʮ‫ج‬஍ґଘ‫ܕ‬༌ೖ‫ࡁܦ‬ʯϞσϧ͸, 1955 ೥ʹ͸͢Ͱʹഁ୼͔͚͍ͯ͠
ͨͷͰ͋Δ. ͜ͷঢ়‫͍͓ͯʹگ‬, ถ‫܉‬੓෎͸ԭೄͷࢿຊऔҾ͓Αͼ๵қɾҝସऔҾͷࣗ༝ԽΛਪ͠ਐΊΔ͜ͱʹΑΓ։ൃࢿۚͱͯ͠֎ࠃࢿຊͷ༠கΛࢼΈΔ. ͦͷࡍ, ౰࣌ͷ‫࣠ج‬௨՟Ͱ΋͋Γ, ࠃࡍܾࡁ௨՟ͱͯ͠ߴ͍ྲྀಈੑΛ‫ތ‬Δถυϧ͸, ࠃࡍతͳҰൠड༰ੑʹ͚ܽΔ B ԁʹൺ΂, ࣮༻తՁ஋͕͋ͬͨ͜ͱ͸‫Ͱ·͏ݴ‬΋ͳ͔ͬͨ. ͭ·Γถ‫܉‬੓෎͸, ถυϧͷ๏ఆ௨՟ઃఆ͕֎ࠃࢿຊ༠கͷඞཁ৚݅ͷ 1 ͭͱߟ͍͑ͯͨͷͰ͋Δ.
Ҏ্ͷΑ͏ʹ, ԭೄͷถυϧ௨՟ମ੍ͷ੒ཱ͸, ԭೄͷຊ౔෮‫ؼ‬ӡಈͷܹԽͱถࠃͷ‫ۓ‬ॖࡒ੓੓ࡦͱ͍͏ԭೄ‫ܦ‬ࡁʹͱͬͯ͸શ͘֎ੜతͳཁҼʹର͢Δ, ถ‫܉‬੓෎ͷ੓࣏తબ୒ͷ݁ՌͰ͋ͬͨ͜ͱ͕Θ͔Δ.

9

2.4 χΫιϯɾγϣοΫͷԭೄ‫ʹࡁܦ‬ର͢Δ֎ੜੑ͍ΘΏΔʮχΫιϯɾγϣοΫʯͱ͸, 1971 ೥ 8 ݄ 15 ೔ʹχΫιϯେ౷ྖ͕ެදͨ͠ʮฏ࿨ͷͨΊͷ௅ઓʯ(The Challenge of Peace) ͱ୊͞Εͨ‫ٸۓࡁܦ‬੓ࡦΛࢦ͢. ͦͷ಺༰͸, υϧ๷Ӵࡦ, ‫ۀࣦ( ࡦܹࢗؾܠ‬ରࡦʣ, ΠϯϑϨ཈੍ࡦ͔Βͳ͍͕ͬͯͨ, ಛʹυϧ๷Ӵࡦͱͯ͠ͷถυϧͱۚͷަ‫׵‬ఀࢭાஔͱ 10% ͷ༌ೖ՝௃ۚͷො՝͸, ࠃࡍ௨՟ମ੍ʹۭલͷӨ‫ڹ‬Λ༩͑Δ͜ͱʹͳΔ. ౰࣌ϒϨτϯɾ΢οζମ੍ͷԼ, ࠃࡍ௨՟ମ੍͸, ถυϧͱۚͷަ‫׵‬ϨʔτΛ 1 Φϯε=35 υϧʹ‫ݻ‬ఆ͠, ͔ͭ֎ࠃ௨՟Λถυϧʹ‫ݻ‬ఆ͢Δ, ถυϧΛ‫࣠ج‬௨՟ͱͨۚ͠ɾҝସຊҐ੍ (gold exchange system) Ͱ͋ͬͨ. χΫιϯɾγϣοΫʹΑΔถυϧͱۚͷަ‫׵‬ఀࢭાஔ͸ࣄ্࣮ถυϧͱۚͷมಈ૬৔Λҙຯ͠, ·ͨ 10% ͷ༌ೖ՝௃ۚ͸ถυϧͱଞ௨՟ͱͷ‫ݻ‬ఆϨʔτΛࣄ্࣮์‫͢غ‬Δ͜ͱΛҙຯͨ͠ʢถυϧͷ੾ΓԼ͛ʣ. ͦΕΏ͑, χΫιϯɾγϣοΫ͸‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ͱ͍͏ϒϨτϯɾ΢οζମ੍ͷࣄ্࣮ͷऴᖼΛ΋ͨΒͨ͠ͷͰ͋Δ. χΫιϯɾγϣοΫҎ‫ޙ‬, ੢ଆॾࠃ͸Ұ࣌తʹҝସࢢ৔Λด࠯ͨ͠‫ޙ‬, Ұ੪ʹมಈ૬৔੍ʹҠߦ͢Δ. ೔ຊ΋ 1971 ೥ 8 ݄ 28 ೔ʹ͸, ؅ཧ૬৔੍ʹҠߦ͠, 1 υϧ=360 ԁͷެࣜϨʔτ͔Βͷԁ੾্͕͛࢝·Δ. ͦΕҎ߱, 1971 ೥ 12 ݄ 20 ೔ͷεϛιχΞϯ߹ҙͰ͸ 1 υϧʹ 308 ԁʹ߹ҙ͠, ԭೄฦؐͷ 1972 ೥

5 ݄ 15 ೔ʹ͸ 1 υϧʹ 305 ԁͰͷυϧ͔Β೔ຊԁ΁ͷ௨՟ަ‫׵‬ʢୈ 6 ࣍๏ఆ௨՟มߋʣ͕ߦΘΕͨ.*16χΫιϯɾγϣοΫͷԕҼ͸ҎԼͷΑ͏ʹཁ໿Ͱ͖ΔͩΖ͏. 1958 ೥Ҏ߱, ੢υΠπ΍೔ຊͳͲͷ੢ଆॾࠃͷ‫ࡁܦ‬෮‫ͱڵ‬ಉໍؔ܎ҡ࣋ͷͨΊͷଟֹͷ੓෎ԉॿʹΑΓ, ถࠃͷࠃࡍऩࢧ͸‫ܧ‬ଓతʹ‫ࣈ੺ͳֹڊ‬Λ‫ه‬࿥͍ͯͨ͠.
͞Βʹ 1965 ೥ʹϕτφϜઓ૪հೖ͕ຊ֨Խ͢Δͱ, ‫ࣄ܉‬අͷ૿ֹʹΑΔࡒ੓੺ࣈͷѱԽͱͦΕʹΑΔΠϯϑϨʔγϣϯʹΑͬͯ, ࠃࡍऩࢧ੺ࣈ͸͞ΒʹѱԽͨ͠. ͜Ε͕ࠃࡍతͳυϧա৒໰୊ΛҾ͖‫͜͠ى‬, υϧͷ৴༻ෆ҆ʹͭͳ͕͍ͬͯͨ.*17 ·ͨ 1970 ೥ʹ͸͍͔ͬͯΒ͸, ߴ͍ࣦ‫͍ߴͱ཰ۀ‬ΠϯϑϨ͕‫ڞ‬ଘ͢ΔελάϑϨʔγϣϯ͕‫ࡏݦ‬Խ͢Δ. ͜ͷΑ͏ͳࠃ಺֎ͷ‫ڥ؀ࡁܦ‬ͷѱԽʹରͯ͠, ถࠃ͸χΫιϯɾγϣοΫʹΑͬͯ, ࠃࡍతͳެ໿Ͱ
͋Δυϧͷ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Λ์‫͠غ‬, ࣗࠃ‫ʹࡁܦ‬ର͢ΔϚΫϩ‫ࡁܦ‬੓ࡦͷࣗ཯ੑΛ֬อͨ͠ͷͰ͋Δ.*18
͜ͷΑ͏ʹ, χΫιϯɾγϣοΫʹΑΔϒϨτϯɾ΢οζମ੍ͷ่յͱࠃࡍ௨՟ମ੍ͷมಈ૬৔੍΁ͷ࣮࣭తͳҠߦ͸, ౰࣌ͷถࠃ‫ࡁܦ‬ͷ๊͑Δ໰୊ͱࠃࡍ௨՟ମ੍ͷ੍౓త‫ݶ‬քͷ݁Ռͱͯ͠ͳ͞ΕͨถࠃͷҰํతͳ੓ࡦతબ
୒Ͱ͋ͬͨ. ͦΕΏ͑ԭೄ‫ͯͬͱʹࡁܦ‬͸શ͘༧‫͞ظ‬Εͳ͍֎ੜతͳྺ࢙తΠϕϯτͰ͋ͬͨ͜ͱ͸໌നͰ͋Ζ͏. ͜ͷ༧‫͞ظ‬Εͳ͍ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍΁ͷҠߦ͸, ҎԼͷઅͰຊߘ͕ࢼΈΔ௨՟ମ੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτޮՌΛࣝผ͢ΔͨΊͷཧ૝తͳࣗવ࣮‫ڥ؀ݧ‬Λ༩͑Δ.*19*16 ΑΓਖ਼֬ʹ͸, εϛιχΞϯ߹ҙʹΑΓ, ࠃࡍ௨՟ମ੍͸େ෯ͳυϧͷ੾ΓԼ͛Λ൐͍ͳ͕Β΋‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Λ෮‫ͨͤ͞׆‬. ͔͜͠͠ͷεϛιχΞϯମ੍ͷԼͰ΋౤‫ػ‬తͳυϧചΓ͸ࢭ·Βͣ, ઌਐ֤ࠃ͸ॱ࣍ϑϩʔτ੍ʹҠߦ͢Δ. ೔ຊ΋ 1973 ೥ 2 ݄ʹ͸‫׬‬શͳมಈ૬৔
੍ʹҠߦ͠, εϛιχΞϯମ੍͸ࣄ্่࣮յ͢Δ.
*17 ถࠃͷࠃࡍऩࢧ੺ࣈʹΑΓ, ࠇࣈࠃ͸ଟֹͷυϧ४උΛ஝ੵ͢Δ͜ͱʹͳΔ. ͜ͷ֎ࠃͷถυϧ४උ͕, ถࠃͷۚ४උΛ྇կ͢ΔΑ͏ʹ
ͳΔͱ, શͯͷυϧΛۚʹަ‫͢׵‬Δ͜ͱ͕ෆՄೳʹͳΓ, υϧͷ৴༻໰୊͕ੜ͡Δ. ҰํͰถࠃͷࠃࡍऩࢧΛࠇࣈʹ͢Ε͹, ࠃࡍܾࡁ௨
՟Ͱ‫࣠ج‬௨՟Ͱ͋Δυϧͷෆ଍໰୊͕ੜ͡, ੈք‫ࡁܦ‬ͷ੒௕ͷ଍͔ͤʹͳΔ. ͜ͷʮτϦϑΟϯͷδϨϯϚʯ(Triﬃn’s dilemma) ͱ஌ΒΕΔ, ‫࣠ج‬௨՟ͱͯ͠ͷถυϧͷ໋॓͸, ΍͕ͯχΫιϯɾγϣοΫͰ‫࣮ݱ‬Խ͢Δ.
*18 ʮࠃࡍ௨՟ମ੍ͷτϦϨϯϚʯ(international monetary trilemma) ͷٞ࿦ʹै͑͹, ౰࣌ͷถࠃ͸, มಈ૬৔੍ʹҠߦ͢Δ͜ͱʹΑΓ, ໊໨ҝସϨʔτͷมಈΛ༰ೝ͢Δ୅ΘΓʹ, ࠃ಺‫ʹࡁܦ‬ର͢Δۚ༥੓ࡦͷࣗ཯ੑͱࢿຊͷࠃࡍҠಈΛ֬อͨ͠.
*19 χΫιϯɾγϣοΫʹΑΔԁͷมಈ૬৔੍΁ͷҠߦͱ͍͏֎ੜతγϣοΫ͸, ԭೄ‫ʹࡁܦ‬ਙେͳӨ‫ڹ‬Λ༩͑ͨ. ಛʹ 1972 ೥ 5 ݄ʹ༧ఆ͞Ε͍ͯͨຊ౔෮‫͚͓ʹ఺࣌ؼ‬Δถυϧ͔Β೔ຊԁ΁ͷ௨՟ަ‫͍͓ͯʹ׵‬, ԁͷ੾Γ্͛ͷͨΊ, ԁडऔֹ͕େ෯ʹ‫ֹ͞ݮ‬Εͯ͠·͏͜ͱ͕༧૝͞Ε௨՟ෆ҆Λऒ‫ͨͤ͞ى‬. ͜ͷ௨՟ަ‫͚͓ʹ࣌׵‬ΔެࣜϨʔτͷܾఆʹؔͯ͠, ೔ຊ੓෎ͱླྀ‫ٿ‬੓෎ͷؒͷ߹ҙ‫ܗ‬੒͸੓࣏తʹࠔ೉Λ‫ۃ‬Ίͨ. ೔ຊ੓෎͸, 1 υϧ=360 ԁ͔Βͷԁ੾Γ্͛ʹΑͬͯੜ͡ΔۚમతଛࣦΛ, ฦؐ‫ޙࣄޙ‬తʹิঈ͢Δ௨՟ࠩଛอোા
ஔͱͯ͠ಛผ‫ۚ෇څ‬Λࢧ‫͕ͨ͠څ‬, ͦͷͨΊฦؐલͷ 1971 ೥ 10 ݄ 9 ೔ʹླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄશҬʹ͓͍ͯυϧ௨՟֬ೝ࡞‫͞ࢪ࣮͕ۀ‬ΕΔ. ͜ͷυϧ֬ೝ࡞‫ۀ‬ͷৄࡉͳ‫ܦ‬Ңʹؔͯ͠͸, ܰ෦ (2012) ͱ઒ฏ (2015) ͕ৄ͍͠.

10

3 σʔλલड़ͷ௨Γ, ຊߘ͕෼ੳର৅ͱ͢Δσʔλ͸೔ຊ੓෎૯ཧ෎౷‫ٿླྀͱہܭ‬੓෎‫ا‬ը‫ہ‬౷‫ܭ‬ி͕ຊ౔ͷ 46 ౎ಓ෎‫ݝݝ‬ிॴࡏ౎ࢢͱಹ೼ࢢͷͦΕͧΕͰ࣮ࢪͨ͠ʮখച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪʯʢҎԼʮຊ౔ௐࠪʯͱʮԭೄௐࠪʯ
ʣʹ͓͚Δ,
ԭೄฦؐલ‫ޙ‬ͷ 5 ೥ؒͷ 1970 ೥ 1 ݄͔Β 1974 ೥ 12 ݄·Ͱͷ݄࣍σʔλͰ͋Δ. ͜ΕΒ 2 ͭͷখചՁ֨ʹؔ͢Δ‫װج‬౷‫ܭ‬ͷओ໨త͸ফඅऀ෺Ձࢦ਺ͷ࡞੒ʹ͋Δ͕, ຊߘͰ͸ͦΕΒΛ݁߹ͯ͠༻͍Δ. ʮຊ౔ௐࠪʯ͸, 1972೥Ҏલ, ະͩԭೄ͕ถ‫܉‬੓෎ͷ઎ྖԼʹ͋ͬͨಹ೼ࢢͷௐࠪΛ࣮ࢪ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍ͨΊ, ಹ೼ࢢʹؔ͢Δௐࠪ݁Ռ͕ܽଛ͍ͯ͠Δ. ͜Εʹରͯ͠, ʮԭೄௐࠪʯ͸, ʮຊ౔ௐࠪʯͷௐࠪ඼໨Λ΄΅౿ऻ্ͨ͠Ͱ, 1972 ೥Ҏલʹಹ೼ࢢͰখചՁ֨Λௐ͍ࠪͯ͠Δ. ͜͜Ͱʮԭೄௐࠪʯ͸, 1972 ೥ 5 ݄Ҏલ͸͢΂ͯถυϧ‫ͯݐ‬, 1972 ೥ 6 ݄͔Β 12 ݄͸͢΂ͯԁ‫Ͱͯݐ‬ใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔ. ຊߘͰ͸, ԭೄɾຊ౔ؒՁ֨ࠩΛଌΔͨΊ, ಹ೼ࢢͷถυϧ‫ͯݐ‬Ձ֨Λԁ‫ͯݐ‬Ձ֨ʹม‫͢׵‬Δ͕, ͦͷࡍʹ͸౰݄֘ͷԁυϧͷެࣜϨʔτʢ݄தฏ‫ۉ‬஋ʣΛ༻͍ͨ.
ຊߘ͸, ʮຊ౔ௐࠪʯͱʮԭೄௐࠪʯʹ‫·ؚ‬ΕΔશ඼໨ͷ͏ͪʮ৯ྉʯେ෼ྨʹ‫·ؚ‬ΕΔ 41 ඼໨ͷ‫ݸ‬ผ໏ฑΛ෼ੳͷର৅ͱͨ͠.*20 ͜ͷ 41 ‫ݸ‬ผ໏ฑͷ಺, 24 ໏ฑ͸ಛఆͷ঎඼໊ʢϒϥϯυ໊ʣ͕‫͞ࡌه‬Ε͍ͯΔ. ͦͷଞͷ໏ฑ͸ಛఆͷ঎඼໊͕‫͞ࡌه‬Ε͍ͯͳ͍. ຊߘͰ͸αϒαϯϓϧͱͯ͠ʮϒϥϯυ඼ʯͱʮϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ʯΛߏ੒͕ͨ͠, લऀʹؔͯ͠͸, (i) ಹ೼ͱຊ౔ 46 ‫ݝ‬ிॴࡏ౎ࢢͷશͯͰαϯϓϧ͞Ε͍ͯΔ͜ͱ, ·ͨ (ii) ಛఆͷ঎඼໊͕֬ೝͰ͖Δ͜ͱΛ৚݅ͱͨ͠. ଟ͘ͷϒϥϯυ඼ʹ͓͍ͯ͸, ʮຊ౔ௐࠪʯͱʮԭೄௐࠪʯͰ໏ฑͷϚονϯ
ά͕ՄೳͰ͋Γ, ΑΓ‫ݸͳີݫ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτΛ࡞੒Ͱ͖Δ. ·ͨଟ͘ͷϒϥϯυ඼͸ຊ౔ʹ͓͚
Δେख৯ྉ඼ϝʔΧʔͷओཁ঎඼ͳͷͰ, ಹ೼ʹ͓͍ͯαϯϓϧ͞ΕΔখചՁ֨͸, ຊ౔͔Βͷ༌ೖ඼ͷ΋ͷͰ͋Δ֖વੑ͕ߴ͍.*21 ͜ͷͨΊ, ϒϥϯυ඼ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ͔Βͷ݁Ռ͸, ຊ౔େखϝʔΧʔͷՁ֨ઃఆߦಈΛ‫ڧ‬͘൓ө͍ͯ͠Δͱߟ͑Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖Δ. Ұํ, ԭೄͷϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ʹ‫·ؚ‬ΕΔ໏ฑʹ͸ɺԭೄͰੜ࢈͞Εͨʮౡ࢈඼ʯ͕ଟ͘‫·ؚ‬Ε͍ͯΔɻ͜ͷΑ͏ͳౡ࢈඼͕ຊ౔ʹ༌ग़͞Εൢച͞ΕΔ͜ͱ͸΄ͱΜͲͳ͍ɻͦΕΏ͑ʮԭೄௐࠪʯʹ͓͚Δϊϯϒϥϯυ඼͸͓Αͦඇ๵қࡒͱߟ͑Δ͜ͱ͕Ͱ͖ΔͩΖ͏. ͜ͷͱ͖ʮຊ౔ௐࠪʯʹ͓͚Δର
Ԡ໏ฑͱͷؒͰࡋఆऔҾ͕े෼ʹߦΘΕ͍ͯͳ͍Մೳੑ͕ߴ͍ɻ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸ɺԭೄͱຊ౔ओཁ౎ࢢؒʹ͓͚Δϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ͷҰ෺ҰՁ੒ཱͷఔ౓ʹɺ௨՟ମ੍ͷҧ͍͸‫͍ڧ‬Ө‫ڹ‬Λ༩͑ͳ͍ͱ͍͏ຊߘͷԾઆΛఏ‫͢ى‬Δ.

1970 ೥ 1 ݄͔Β 1974 ೥ 12 ݄·Ͱͷຊߘͷαϯϓϧ‫ؒظ‬͸, ҎԼͷ 3 ͭͷཧ༝Ͱબ୒͞Εͨ. ·ͣୈ 1 ʹ, 1969೥Ҏલͷʮԭೄௐࠪʯ͸ௐ߲ࠪ໨ͱௐࠪ඼໨ͷઃఆ͕ૈ͘ෆਖ਼֬ͳ͜ͱ͕ཧ༝ͱͯ͠‫͛ڍ‬ΒΕΔ. ʮԭೄௐࠪʯͷௐࠪ඼໨ͷઃఆ͕ૈ͍ͱ, ʮຊ౔ௐࠪʯͷ͓͚ΔରԠௐࠪ඼໨ͷಉఆ͕Ͱ͖ͣ, ຊߘͷ໨తʹ͓͚Δ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷਖ਼֬ͳಋग़͕Ͱ͖ͳ͍. ୈ 2 ʹ, αϯϓϧ‫ؒظ‬Λ 1974 ೥Ҏ߱΋‫·͋Ͱ·ࡏݱ‬Γʹ௕͘औͬͯ͠·͏ͱ, ௨՟ମ੍ͷมԽͷޮՌ͚ͩͰ͸ͳ͘, ଞͷ‫ڥ؀ࡁܦ‬ͷมԽΛଊ͑ͯ͠·͏֖વੑ͕‫ۃ‬Ίͯߴ͍. ݁Ռͱͯ͠, ຊߘͷ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌͷਪఆʹόΠΞε͕ੜ͡ΔՄೳੑ͕͋Δ. ຊߘͰ͸, ੓ࡦධՁͷจ‫͍ैʹݙ‬, ଞͷ‫ڥ؀ࡁܦ‬ͷ‫ۉ‬ҰੑΛ֬อ͢ΔͨΊ, 3 ͭͷ௨՟ମ੍ͷมԽͷ௚લ௚‫ޙ‬ͷσʔλʹ‫ݶ‬ఆ͠, ԭೄɾຊ౔ؒՁ֨ࠩͷΫϩεɾηΫγϣϯ෼෍ͷ‫ܗ‬ঢ়ʹෆ࿈ଓͳมԽ͕͋Δ͔Ͳ͏͔Λ֬ೝ͢Δ. ୈ 3 ͷཧ༝͸, લड़ͷ௨Γ, ͜ͷαϯϓϧ‫ ͕ؒظ‬3 ͭͷҟͳͬͨ௨՟ମ੍, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍, ͓Αͼ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍Λ಺แͯ͠
͍Δ͜ͱͰ͋Δ. ·ͣ 1970 ԁ 1 ݄͔Β 1971 ೥ 7 ݄·Ͱ͸ 1 υϧ=360 ԁͷถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ʹ, 1971 ೥ 8 ݄ͷχΫιϯɾγϣοΫ͔Βຊ౔ฦ͕࣮ؐࢪ͞Εͨ 1972 ೥ 5 ݄·Ͱ͸ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ʹ, ͦͯ͠ 1972 ೥ 6 ݄͔Β

1974 ೥ 12 ݄͸೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ʹͦΕͧΕରԠ͢Δ.
*20 41 ‫ݸ‬ผ໏ฑͷৄࡉ͸෇࿥Λࢀরͷ͜ͱ.
*21 ྫ͑͹ϒϥϯυ඼ͷதʹ͸ʮωεΧϑΣʯ,ʮ৿ӬϛϧΫΩϟϥϝϧʯ,ʮόϠϦʔεʯ,ʮΩοίʔϚϯে༉ʯͳͲ͕‫·ؚ‬ΕΔ.

11ຊߘͰѻ͏‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ͸ҎԼͷํ๏Ͱಋग़͞ΕΔ. pc,j (t) ͸, t(=1, ..., T, T = 60) ‫ʹظ‬
͓͚Δ, ԭೄɾಹ೼Λ‫ؚ‬Ή೔ຊͷ 47 ౎ಓ෎‫ݝ‬ிॴࡏ౎ࢢ c(= 1, ..., 47) Ͱͷ, ඼໨ j(= 1, ..., 41) ͷԁ‫ͯݐ‬খചՁ֨ͷࣗવର਺஋Λࣔ͢. t ‫͚͓ʹظ‬Δ 2 ͭͷҟͳͬͨ౎ಓ෎‫ݝݝ‬ிॴࡏ౎ࢢ c ͓Αͼ s(̸= c) ͷؒͷ඼໨ j ʹؔ͢Δ
‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷର਺஋Λ qc,s,j (t) Ͱࣔ͢ͱ, qc,s,j (t) ͸

qc,s,j (t) ≡ pc,j (t) − ps,j (t),Ͱ༩͑ΒΕΔ. ͜͜Ͱɺ௨՟ମ੍ޮՌʹ͸ؔ܎ͷͳ͍࣌ؒΛ௨ͯ͡Ұఆͷ౎ಓ෎‫ݝ‬ϖΞɾ඼໨‫ݻ‬༗ͷޮՌΛαϯϓϧ͔Βࣄલʹআ‫͢ڈ‬Δ. ͜ͷͨΊ, ͦΕͧΕͷ౎ಓ෎‫ݝݝ‬ϖΞ (c, s) ͱ඼໨ j ʹؔͯ͠, ࣌‫ྻܥ‬ฏ‫ۉ‬q̄c,s,j ≡ T −1

!T

t=1 qc,s,j (t) Λਪఆ͢Δɻͦͷ্Ͱɺq̄c,s,j Λ֤αϯϓϧ qc,s,j (t) ͔Βࠩ͠Ҿ͖, ౎ಓ෎‫ݝ‬ϕΞɾ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌআ‫ࡁڈ‬Έͷ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨ผ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ q̂c,s,j (t) ≡ qc,s,j (t) − q̄c,s,j Λ‫͠ࢉܭ‬ɺҎԼຊߘʹ͓͚Δ‫ܭ‬ྔ෼ੳͷσʔλͱ͢Δɻ

4 ‫ྔܭ‬෼ੳຊઅͰ͸‫ྔܭ‬෼ੳͷ݁ՌΛใࠂ͢Δ.

4.1 ‫ه‬ड़౷‫ͱྔܭ‬Χʔωϧฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍
4.1.1

શ໏ฑ

ද 1 Ͱ͸, શ 41 ໏ฑͷ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷઈର஋ |q̂c,s,j (t)| ͷ‫ه‬ड़౷‫͕ྔܭ‬ใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔ. ද

1(a) ͸ԭೄΛ‫ؚ‬ΉϖΞ (ҎԼ, ԭೄϖΞ), ද 1(b) ͸ԭೄҎ֎ͷຊ౔ 46 ౎ಓ෎‫ݝ‬ϖΞʢҎԼ, ຊ౔ϖΞʣʹରԠ͠

͍ͯΔ͕, શαϯϓϧͱ 3 ͭͷ௨՟ମ੍ — ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍— ͷͦΕͧΕʹର͠, αϯϓϧ਺, ฏ‫ۉ‬, ϝσΟΞϯ, ͓Αͼඪ४ภ͕ࠩྻ‫͞ه‬Ε͍ͯΔ. ද 1 ͔Βগͳ͘ͱ΋ҎԼ 4 ͭͷ͜ͱ͕໌Β͔Ͱ͋Δ. ୈ 1 ʹ, ௨՟ମ੍ʹؔΘΒͣ, ԭೄϖΞͷฏ‫ۉ‬, ϝσΟΞϯ͓Αͼඪ४ภࠩ͸, ຊ౔ϖΞͷͦΕΒΑΓ΋͔ͳΓେ͖͍. ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸, ԭೄϖΞͷ෼෍ʹ͓͍ͯ, ਖ਼ͷ‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌͱ෼ࢄෆ‫ۉ‬Ұੑ͕ଘࡏ͢Δ͜ͱΛࣔ͠
͍ͯΔ. ୈ 2 ʹ, ԭೄϖΞͷ෼෍͸, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ͷࡍ, ӈํ޲΁ͷ‫͍ڧ‬ภΓ͕ೝΊΒΕΔ͜ͱͰ͋Δ. ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸, ԭೄϖΞͷϝσΟΞϯ͕, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ͷࡍʹҰ൪େ͖͘ͳΓ, ͔ͭඪ४ภ͕ࠩҰ൪খ͘͞ͳ͍ͬͯΔ
͜ͱ͔ΒྨਪͰ͖Δ. ୈ 3 ʹ, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ԼͰͷԭೄϖΞͷฏ‫ͱۉ‬ϝσΟΞϯ͸ɺถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ͷͦΕΒΑΓେ͖͘ɺ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔Λଅਐ͍ͯ͠ΔΑ͏ʹ͸‫͋Ͱͱ͍͜ͳ͑ݟ‬Δɻ ୈ 4 ʹ, ԭೄϖΞͱ͸‫ʹٯ‬, ຊ౔ϖΞʹ͓͍ͯ͸, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍‫Ͱظ‬ͷฏ‫ͱۉ‬ϝσΟΞϯͷ௿Լ͕‫͞࡯؍‬ΕΔ.
͜ΕΒͷ఺Λࢹ֮తʹ֬ೝ͢ΔͨΊ, ਤ 1 Ͱ͸, શ 41 ໏ฑͷ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷઈର஋ |q̂c,s,j (t)|ͷΧʔωϧฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍Λ, ਤ 1(a) શαϯϓϧ, ਤ 1(b) ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍, ਤ 1(c) ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍, ͓Αͼਤ1(d) ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷͦΕͧΕͰ, ԭೄϖΞʹରͯ͠͸ࠇ࣮ઢͰ, ຊ౔ϖΞʹରͯ͠͸ࠇഁઢͰϓϩοτ͍ͯ͠
Δ.*22 ୈ 1 ͷ఺Ͱ͋Δਖ਼ͷԭೄϖΞ‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌ͸, ͢΂ͯͷ௨՟ମ੍ʹ͓͍ͯ, ࠇ࣮ઢ͕ࠇഁઢΑΓ΋ฏୱͰ͔ͭӈํ޲ʹ޿͕͍ͬͯΔ͜ͱ͔Β໌֬Ͱ͋Δ. ୈ 2 ͷ఺ʹؔͯ͠͸, ਤ 1(c) ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ͷέʔεͰ, ԭೄϖΞͷ෼෍͕ଞͷ௨՟ମ੍Լʹ͓͚Δ΋ͷΑΓ΋͞ΒʹฏୱʹͳΓ, ෼෍ͷ୯ๆੑ͕ࣦΘΕ͍ͯΔ͜ͱ͔Β΋֬ೝͰ͖Δ. ͜Ε͕, ද 1 ͷԭೄϖΞʹ͓͚ΔϝσΟΞϯ͕ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ԼͰ, ࠷΋େ͖͘ͳ͍ͬͯΔཧ༝Ͱ͋Δ. Ұ*22 Χʔωϧฏ‫׈‬Խʹ͸Ψ΢ε‫ܕ‬ΧʔωϧΛ༻͍͍ͯΔ.

12

ํ, ୈ 3 ͷ఺͸, ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ʹରԠ͢Δਤ 1(b) ͱ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ʹରԠ͢Δਤ 1(d) ʹ͓͚Δࠇ࣮ઢͷ‫ܗ‬ঢ়͕ࢹ֮తʹ͸΄΅ಉ͡Ͱ͋Δ͜ͱ͔Β, ͦͷ‫݈ؤ‬ੑ͕ٙΘ͍͠. ࠷‫ʹޙ‬ୈ 4 ͷ఺΋, άϥϑ্ࣝผ͕ࠔ೉Ͱ͋Δ.
Ҏ্ͷ఺͔Β, ຊߘͷॏཁͳਪଌ͕ಘΒΕΔ. ·ͣ Cavallo et al. (2014a) ͕‫ڧ‬ௐ͍ͯ͠Δ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ʹର͢Δʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯ͸‫͞࡯؍‬Εͣ, ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍͸Ծʹ͋ͬͯ΋‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ͱಉఔ౓ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ޮՌ͔͠΋ͨΒ͍ͯ͠ͳ͍͠, Ή͠ΖѱԽͤͨ͞܏޲͢Β͋Δ. Ұํ, Berka et al.(2012) ͕ओு͢ΔΑ͏ʹ, มಈ૬৔੍͕‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ͷ્֐ཁҼʹͳ͍ͬͯΔ֖વੑ͕‫ۃ‬Ίͯߴ͍.

4.1.2 ϒϥϯυ඼ͱϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ද 2 ͸, શ໏ฑΛ͞Βʹϒϥϯυ඼ͱϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ʹ෼͚ͨࡍͷ, ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷઈର஋|q̂c,s,j (t)| ͷ‫ه‬ड़౷‫ྔܭ‬Λใࠂ͍ͯ͠Δ. ͜͜Ͱ, ද 2(a) ͸ԭೄϖΞͷϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧ, ද 2(b) ͸ຊ౔ϖΞͷϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧ, ද 2(c) ͸ԭೄϖΞͷϊϯϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧ, ͦͯ͠ද 2(d) ͸ຊ౔ϖΞͷϊϯϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹͦΕͧΕରԠ͍ͯ͠Δ. ·ͣද 2 ʹ͓͍ͯ΋, ϒϥϯυ඼ͱϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ͷҧ͍ʹؔΘΒͣ, ਖ਼ͷԭೄϖΞ‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌͱ෼ࢄෆ‫ۉ‬Ұੑ͕‫͖Ͱ࡯؍‬Δ͜ͱ, ·ͨຊ౔ϖΞͷ෼෍ʹ͸, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍
‫ʹظ‬ฏ‫ͱۉ‬ϝσΟΞϯͷ௿Լ͕͋Δ͜ͱΛ֬ೝͯ͠΄͍͠. ͔͜͜͠͠Ͱ࠷΋ॏཁͳ‫࡯؍‬͸, ද 2(a) Ͱࣔ͞ΕΔԭ
ೄϖΞͷϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹ͓͍ͯ, ෼෍ͷฏ‫ͱۉ‬ϝσΟΞϯ͕, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍Լʹ͓͍ͯ, ଞͷ௨՟ମ੍ԼΑΓ͸Δ͔ʹେ͖͘ͳ͍ͬͯΔ఺Ͱ͋Δ. ࣮ࡍʹถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍͔Βถυϧมಈ૬৔੍΁ͷҠߦͰ, ฏ‫ۉ‬ͱϝσΟΞϯ͕ͦΕͧΕ 4.61% ͱ 5.00% ্ঢ͍ͯ͠Δ. Ұํ, ͜ͷΑ͏ͳ෼෍ͷมԽ͸, ද 2(c) Ͱใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔΑ͏ʹԭೄϖΞͷϊϯϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧͰ͸‫͍͠ͳ͖Ͱ࡯؍‬, ฏ‫ۉ‬͸Ή͠Ζए‫ׯ‬௿Լ͍ͯ͠Δ. ·ͨϒϥϯυ඼ͱϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ͷҧ͍ʹؔΘΒͣ, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ʹ͓͚ΔԭೄϖΞͷฏ‫ͱۉ‬ϝσΟΞϯ͸ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ͷͦΕΑΓ΋େ͖͍.
ද 2 ʹ֘౰͢ΔΧʔωϧฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍͸, ਤ 2 ͓Αͼਤ 3 ʹϓϩοτ͞Ε͍ͯΔ. ྆ਤͱ΋ਤ 1 ͱಉ༷ʹ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷઈର஋ |q̂c,s,j (t)| ͷΧʔωϧฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍Λ, ԭೄϖΞʹରͯ͠͸ࠇ࣮ઢͰ, ຊ౔ϖΞʹରͯ͠͸ࠇഁઢͰϓϩοτ͍ͯ͠Δ͕, ਤ 2 ͸ϒϥϯυ඼, ਤ 3 ͸ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ͷαϒαϯϓϧʹͦΕͧΕରԠ͠

͍ͯΔ. ਤ 2(c) ͸ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ԼͰͷฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍Λϓϩοτ͍ͯ͠Δ͕, ਤ 2(b) ͓Αͼਤ 2(d) Ͱࣔ͞Ε͍ͯΔถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ԼͷͦΕΒͱൺֱ͢Δͱ, ෼෍ͷ‫ܗ‬ঢ়ͷ໌֬ͳࠩҟ͕֬ೝͰ͖Δ. ಛʹԭೄϖΞͷϒϥϯυ঎඼αϒαϯϓϧͷฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍͕ଞͷ௨՟ମ੍ԼΑΓ΋͞ΒʹฏୱͱͳΓ͔ͭଟๆΛ࣋ͭ͜ͱ͕‫͖Ͱ࡯؍‬Δ. Ұํถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Լͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ԼͷͦΕΒʹ໌֬ͳ૬ҧΛࣝผ͢Δ͜ͱ͸೉͍͠. ·ͨϊϯϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹରԠ͢Δਤ 3 ʹ͓͍ͯ, ԭೄϖΞͱຊ౔ϖΞͷͦΕͧΕͰ, ௨՟ମ੍ͷҧ͍ʹΑΔฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍ͷ‫ܗ‬ঢ়ͷมԽ͸, ࢹ֮తʹ͸ಉఆͰ͖ͳ͍. ཁ໿͢Δͱ, ϒϥϯυ඼ͱϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ͷαϒαϯϓ
ϧΛ༻͍ͨ෼ੳͰ໌നʹͳͬͨ͜ͱ͸, (1) ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ԼͰ‫͞࡯؍‬ΕΔ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ͷ્֐͕, ओʹϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹ‫ى‬Ҽ͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱ, (2) ·ͨถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Լͱൺֱͯ͠, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷԼͰ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔͕վળ͍ͯ͠Δ‫ڌূ͍ڧ‬͸ͳ͘, ࢹ֮తʹ͸઱໌Ͱ͸ͳ͍͕Ή͠ΖѱԽ܏޲ʹ
͑͋͞Δ͜ͱͰ͋Δɻ

4.2 DID ෼ੳʹΑΔ௨՟ମ੍ޮՌͷධՁຊઅͰ͸ɺ௨՟ମ੍ͷ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ޮՌΛɺDID ෼ੳΛ༻͍ͯ‫ֶࡁܦྔܭ‬తʹϑΥʔϚϧʹਪఆ͢Δ.

13

4.2.1 ‫ྔܭ‬ϞσϧຊઅͰ༻͍Δ‫ྔܭ‬ϞσϧΛઆ໌͢ΔͨΊ, ҎԼ͍͔ͭ͘ͷμϛʔม਺Λಋೖ͢Δ. ·ͣ DOkinawa͸ԭೄϖΞμc,sϛʔΛࣔ͠, 47 ౎ಓ෎‫ ݝ‬s ͱಹ೼Λআ͘ 46 ౎ಓ෎‫ ݝ‬c ʹର͠, ΋͠ s ͕ಹ೼ͷͱ͖ 1 ΛऔΓ, s ͕ͦΕҎ֎ͷຊ౔౎ࢢΛࢦ͢ͱ͖ 0 ΛऔΔ.

DOkinawa=c,s"

1 if s = ಹ೼,0 otherwise.

࣍ʹ D(t)Flex ͸ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍μϛʔΛࣔ͠, t ͕ 1971 ೥ 8 ݄͔Β 1972 ೥ 5 ݄·Ͱͷ஋ΛऔΕ͹ 1 ΛऔΓ, ͦΕҎ֎ͷ৔߹ 0 ΛऔΔ. ·ͨಉ༷ʹ D(t)Com ͸೔ຊ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟μϛʔΛࣔ͠, t ͕ 1972 ೥ 6 ݄͔Β 1974 ೥ 12 ݄·Ͱͷ஋ΛऔΕ͹ 1 ΛऔΓ, ͦΕҎ֎ͷ৔߹ 0 ΛऔΔ.

D

D

(t) =

"

(t) =

"

Flex

Com

1 if t = 1971 ೥ 8 ݄, ..., 1972 ೥ 5 ݄,
0 otherwise.

1 if t = 1972 ೥ 6 ݄, ..., 1974 ೥ 12 ݄,
0 otherwise.

͜͜Ͱ α Λఆ਺߲ͱ͠, uc,s,j (t) Λ‫͢ͱ߲ࠩޡ‬Δͱ, ຊߘͷ‫ྔܭ‬Ϟσϧ͸ҎԼͷΑ͏ʹ༩͑ΒΕΔ.*23|q̂c,s,j (t)| = α + β0 DOkinawa+ β1 DFlex (t) + β2 DCom (t)c,s+ γ0 DOkinawa∗ DFlex (t) + γ1 DOkinawa∗ DCom (t) + uc,s,j (t).
c,s
c,s

(1)

‫ྔܭ‬Ϟσϧ (1) Λ༻͍Δͱ, ඇઆ໌ม਺ͷ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷઈର஋ʹର͢Δ௨՟ମ੍ͷฏ‫ॲۉ‬ஔޮՌ (average treatment eﬀect) ͸, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Λ‫ج‬४ͱͯ͠, ද 3 ͷΑ͏ʹಉఆ͞ΕΔ.*24 લઅͰ΋‫࡯؍‬͞Εͨ, ԭೄ‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌ͸‫ྔܭ‬ϞσϧͰ͸ԭೄϖΞμϛʔʹର͢Δ܎਺ β0 Ͱࣝผ͞ΕΔ. ·ͨ DID ෼ੳͷจ‫Ͱݙ‬΋஌ΒΕ͍ͯΔΑ͏ʹ, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍‫ݻ‬༗ͷ‫ݶ‬քޮՌ͸, ԭೄϖΞμϛʔͱถυϧมಈ૬৔੍μϛʔͷΫϩε߲ʹର͢Δ܎਺ γ0 Ͱࣝผ͞Ε, ೔ຊ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍‫ݻ‬༗ͷ‫ݶ‬քޮՌ͸, ԭೄϖΞμϛʔͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍μϛʔͷΫϩε߲ʹର͢Δ܎਺ γ1 Ͱࣝผ͞ΕΔ.
͜͜Ͱ Cavallo et al.(2014a) Ͱ‫ڧ‬ௐ͞ΕΔʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯΛ‫ྔܭ‬Ϟσϧ (1) ʹରԠͤ͞Ε͹, Ծઆ γ1 < 0 ͕ಘΒΕΔ. ·ͨ Berka et al.(2012) Ͱओு͞ΕΔ, มಈ૬৔੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔્֐ޮՌ͸, Ծઆ γ0 > 0 ʹରԠ͢Δ. ͞ΒʹԾઆͷ౷‫ܭ‬త༗ҙੑ͚ͩͰ͸ͳ͘‫ࡁܦ‬తଥ౰ੑΛߟྀʹೖΕΔͨΊ, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷԭೄϖΞՁ֨ࠩʹର͢Δ૬ରతͳޮՌΛλF lex =γ0,α + β0λCom =γ1,
α + β0ͰଌΔ. λF lex ͱ λCom ͸ͦΕͧΕ, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Λ‫ج‬४ʹͨ͠ࡍͷ, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ʹ͓͚ΔԭೄϖΞͷฏ‫ۉ‬తՁ֨ࠩͷมԽ཰Λ͍ࣔͯ͠Δ.

*23 ҎԼຊߘͷ‫ྔܭ‬ϞσϧͰ͸ɺ౎ಓ෎‫ݝ‬ϖΞɾ඼໨ผ‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌΛ໌͍ࣔͯ͠ͳ͍͕ɺલઆͷͱ͓Γɺαϯϓϧ‫ࣄʹ࣌ࢉܭ‬લʹআ‫͠ڈ‬, ‫ྔܭ‬Ϟσϧͷࣗ༝౓Λ֬อ͍ͯ͠Δ.
*24 ຊߘʹ͓͚Δ DID ෼ੳͷܽ఺͸, ௨՟ମ੍͕มԽͨ͠ࡍ, ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ෼෍ͷฏ‫ʹۉ‬ର͢ΔॲஔޮՌ͔͠ਪఆͰ͖ͳ

͍͜ͱʹ͋Δ. Ұํ, લઅͰ‫ͨ͠࡯؍‬Α͏ʹ, ௨՟ମ੍ͷมԽ͸தҐ఺΍ඪ४ภࠩͳͲ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ෼෍શମͷ‫ܗ‬ঢ়ʹӨ‫ڹ‬Λ༩͑͏Δ. ͜ͷ෼෍ޮՌΛ‫ֶࡁܦྔܭ‬తʹଊ͑ΔͨΊʹ͸, ෼Ґ఺ճ‫( ؼ‬quantile regression) ͳͲͷํ๏͕ඞཁͩΖ͏.

14

4.2.2 શ໏ฑຊߘͷ DID ෼ੳͷ݁Ռ͸ද 4 ʹཁ໿͞Ε͍ͯΔ. ද̐ (a) ͸‫ྔܭ‬Ϟσϧ (1) ͷਪఆ஋Λ, શαϯϓϧ (ୈ 3 ྻ),ϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧ (ୈ 4 ྻ), ͓Αͼϊϯϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧ (ୈ 5 ྻ) ͷͦΕͧΕͰใࠂ͍ͯ͠Δ. લઅʹ͓͍ͯ֬ೝͨ͠ԭೄϖΞʹ͓͚Δ෼ࢄෆ‫ۉ‬ҰੑΛߟྀ͢ΔͨΊ, ਪఆʹ͸ White ͷ෼ࢄෆ‫ۉ‬ҰੑΛߟྀͨ͠࠷খೋ৐๏Λ༻͍ͨ. ·ͨ఺ਪఆ஋ͱඪ४ภࠩʹ͸ͦΕͧΕ 100 Λֻ͚, ύʔηϯςʔδද͍ࣔͯ͠Δ. ·ͣୈ 3ྻͷશαϯϓϧͷ݁ՌΛ‫ͯݟ‬ΈΑ͏. ఆ਺߲ͷ఺ਪఆ஋ α̂ ͸౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙʹਖ਼ͷ஋ 4.628 Λ͍ࣔͯ͠Δ. ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸, ຊ౔ϖΞͰ͸ 1970 ೥ 1 ݄͔Β 1971 ೥ 7 ݄·Ͱͷؒ, ฏ‫ۉ‬తʹ໿ 4.6% ͷҰ෺ҰՁ͔Βͷဃ཭͕͋ͬͨ͜
ͱΛҙຯ͍ͯ͠Δ. ࣍ʹԭೄϖΞμϛʔʹର͢Δ܎਺ͷਪఆ஋ β̂0 ͕౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙʹਖ਼ (6.685) Ͱ͋Γ, ฏ‫ۉ‬తʹ

6.7% ఔ౓ͷຊ౔ϖΞΛ্ճΔԭೄϖΞ‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌ͕‫͖Ͱ࡯؍‬Δ. ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍μϛʔͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍μϛʔͷ܎਺ͷਪఆ஋ β̂1 ͓Αͼ β̂2 ͸, ౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙʹෛͷ஋ −0.817 ͱਖ਼ͷ஋ 0.272 ΛͦΕͧΕ͍ࣔͯ͠Δ. ಛʹલऀͷ݁Ռ͸, લઅͰ‫ͨ͠࡯؍‬Α͏ʹ, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍‫ʹظ‬, ຊ౔ϖΞͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷ෼෍ͷฏ‫͕ۉ‬௿Լͨ͜͠ͱΛ൓ө͍ͯ͠Δ.
ԭೄϖΞμϛʔͱถυϧมಈ૬৔੍μϛʔͷΫϩε߲ͷ܎਺ͷਪఆ஋ γ̂0 ͸, ౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙʹਖ਼ (2.228) Ͱ͋Δ.
·ͨԭೄϖΞμϛʔͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍μϛʔͷΫϩε߲ͷ܎਺ͷਪఆ஋ γ̂1 ΋, ౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙʹਖ਼ (1.631) Ͱ͋
Δ. ͦΕΏ͑, શαϯϓϧʹ͓͍ͯ, ্‫ ه‬γ0 > 0 ͷԾઆ͸‫غ‬٫Ͱ͖ͳ͍͕, γ1 < 0 ͷԾઆ͸౷‫ܭ‬తʹ͸‫غ‬٫͞ΕΔ֖વੑ͕ߴ͍. Ұํ, ද 4(b) Ͱ͸, ֤௨՟ମ੍ͷฏ‫ޮۉ‬Ռͷਪఆ஋Λใࠂ͍ͯ͠Δ. ୈ 3 ྻͰࣔ͞Ε͍ͯΔ
શαϯϓϧͰͷ݁Ռʢถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍: 11.312%, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍: 12.723%, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍: 13.215%ʣ
ʹ஫໨͢Δͱ, ԭೄϖΞʹ͓͚Δ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ʹର͢ΔޮՌͱͯ͠, 3 ͭͷ௨՟ମ੍ͷؒʹ౷‫ܭ‬తʹ͸༗ҙͳࠩΛ‫͖Ͱ࡯؍‬Δɻ͔ͦ͠͠ΕΒͷࠩ͸͢΂ͯ 2% ະຬͰ͋Γ, ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹҙຯͷ͋ΔࠩҟͱΈͳ͢͜ͱ͸೉͠
͍.*25 ɹද 4(c) Ͱ͸, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Λ‫ج‬४ͱͨ͠, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷ૬ରޮՌͷਪఆ஋λ̂F lex = 19.695% ͱ λ̂Com = 14.418% Λใࠂ͍ͯ͠Δ. ͭ·Γ, ຊ౔ϖΞʹ͓͚ΔՁ֨ࠩͷมԽΛίϯτϩʔϧ্ͨ͠Ͱ, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍͸ԭೄϖΞͷฏ‫ۉ‬తՁ֨ࠩΛ૬ରతʹ໿ 20%, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍͸໿ 15% ͦΕͧΕ্ঢͤͨ͜͞ͱ͕Θ͔Δ.

4.2.3

ϒϥϯυ඼

࣍ʹϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧΛ࢖ͬͨ, ‫ྔܭ‬Ϟσϧ (1) ͷਪఆ݁ՌΛ‫ͯݟ‬ΈΑ͏. ද 4(a) ͷୈ 4 ྻ͸ϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧͷԼͰͷਪఆ݁ՌΛใࠂ͍ͯ͠Δ. ·ͣԭೄϖΞμϛʔͱถυϧมಈ૬৔੍μϛʔͷΫϩε߲ͷ܎਺ͷਪఆ஋ γ̂0 ͸, ౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙʹਖ਼ (5.905) Ͱ͋Δ. ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸, ϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹ͓͍ͯ, มಈ૬৔੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔્֐ޮՌ͕໿ 6% ͱ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ΋༗ҙͰ͋Δ͜ͱΛ͍ࣔࠦͯ͠Δ. ࣍ʹԭೄϖΞμϛʔͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍μϛʔͷΫϩε߲ͷ܎਺ͷਪఆ஋ γ̂1 ΋ਖ਼ (2.121) Ͱ͋Γ౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙͰ͋Δ. ͜ͷ݁Ռ͸‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌͷԾઆͰ͋Δ γ1 < 0 ͱ੔߹తͰ͸ͳ͍. ͭ·Γ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍͸, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ʹൺֱͯ͠, ԭೄϖΞʹ͓͚Δϒϥϯυ඼ͷฏ‫ۉ‬తՁ֨ࠩΛΉ͠Ζ֦େ͍ͯ͠ΔՄೳੑ͕͋Δ. ࣮ࡍ, ද 4(c) Ͱใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔ௨՟ମ੍ͷ૬ରޮՌͷਪఆ஋ λ̂F lex = 86.280% ͱ λ̂Com = 30.991% ͔Β, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Λ‫ج‬४ͱͯ͠, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍͸ԭೄϖΞͷฏ‫ۉ‬తՁ֨ࠩΛ໿ 86%, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍͸໿ 31% ͦΕͧΕ্ঢ͓ͤͯ͞Γ, ͦΕͧΕ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ༗ҙͳޮՌͰ͋Δ͜ͱ͕֬ೝͰ͖Δ.

*25 ͜ͷ݁࿦͸, ද 1 ‫ͼٴ‬ਤ 1 ͰಘΒΕͨ, શαϯϓϧʹ͓͍ͯಘΒΕΔ, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔્֐ޮՌͷਪ࿦ͱए‫ׯ‬ҟͳ͍ͬͯΔ, 2 ͭͷ෼ੳͷਪ࿦ͷҧ͍͸, DID ෼ੳΛ࣮૷͢Δࡍͷ‫ྔܭ‬Ϟσϧ (1) ͷઢ‫ܕ‬ੑͱฏ‫ۉ‬ճ‫ؼ‬ੑʹ‫ى‬Ҽ͍ͯ͠Δ.

15

͜ͷϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹ͓͍ͯ‫͞࡯؍‬ΕΔ౷‫ܭ‬తɾ‫ࡁܦ‬త༗ҙͳ௨՟ମ੍ޮՌͷ݁࿦Λ͞Βʹਫ਼ࠪ͢Δ
ͨΊ, ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ q̂c,s,j (t) ͷ෼෍͸ඇৗʹॏཁͳ৘ใΛ༩͑Δ. ਤ 4 ͸ϒϥϯυ඼αϓαϯϓ
ϧͷ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ q̂c,s,j (t) ͷΧʔωϧฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍Λ, ԭೄϖΞΛࠇ࣮ઢͰ, ຊ౔ϖΞΛࠇഁઢͰͦΕͧΕϓϩοτ͍ͯ͠Δ͕, ਤ 4(a) ͸શαϯϓϧ, ਤ̐ (b) ͸ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍, ਤ 4(c) ͸ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍,ͦͯ͠ਤ 4(d) ͸೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ʹରԠ͍ͯ͠Δ. ͜͜Ͱ, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷઈର஋ |q̂c,s,j (t)| Λϓϩοτͨ͠ਤ

1-3 ͱ͸ҟͳΓ, ਤ 4 ͸࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷϨϕϧ q̂c,s,j (t) Λϓϩοτ͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱʹ஫ҙͯ͠΄͍͠. ·ͨԭೄϖΞͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ͸, ଞͷ 46 ౎ಓ෎‫ݝݝ‬ிॴࡏ౎ࢢͷখചՁ֨ͷର਺஋͔Βಹ೼ࢢͷͦΕΛҾ͍ͯ‫͞ࢉܭ‬Ε͍ͯΔ.
͜͜ͰಛචͰ͖Δ͜ͱ͸, ਤ 4(c) Ͱ֬ೝͰ͖ΔΑ͏ʹ, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍Լ, ԭೄϖΞͷ෼෍͕θϩͷத৺͔Βӈํ޲ʹେ͖͘ภ͍ͬͯΔ͜ͱͰ͋Δ. ຊ౔ϖΞͷ෼෍͸θϩΛத৺ʹ͓ΑͦରশతͰ͋Δ. ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍Լʹ͓͍ͯ, ϒϥϯυ඼ͷԁ‫ͯݐ‬খചՁ͕֨, ଟ͘ͷ໏ฑʹ͓͍ͯ, ଞͷຊ౔ओཁ౎ࢢʹൺ΂ಹ೼ࢢͰΑΓ௿͔ͬͨ͜ͱ, ͭ·Γԭೄͷ࣮࣭௨՟͕҆ੜ͍ͯͨ͜͡ͱΛ͍ࣔࠦͯ͠Δ. ͢ͳΘͪ, ԭೄͷ໊໨௨՟ (ถυϧ) ҆͸࣮࣭௨՟҆ΛੜΈग़͍ͯͨ͠ͱਪଌͰ͖Δ. ͜ͷ݁࿦͸, લड़ͷ Mussa (1986) ͷ 2 ͭͷ‫໊ — ࡯؍‬໨ҝସϨʔτͱ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷҰରҰͷ૬ؔͱมಈ૬৔੍Լʹ͓͚Δ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷաେͳมಈ — Λ౿ऻ͍ͯ͠Δ
͜ͱΛ֬ೝͯ͠΄͍͠. ϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹ‫·ؚ‬ΕΔ 24 ໏ฑͷଟ͘͸, ຊ౔ʹଘࡏ͢Δϝδϟʔͳ৯ྉ඼
ϝʔΧʔͷ঎඼Ͱ͋Δ͜ͱΛߟྀ͢Δͱ, ֎ࠃࢢ৔ͱࠃ಺ࢢ৔ͷͦΕͧΕͰ‫ݱ‬஍௨՟‫ߗͰݐ‬௚తʹՁ֨ઃఆΛߦ͏ಠ઎‫ڝ‬૪త༌ग़‫͕ۀا‬ଘࡏ͢ΔχϡʔέΠϯδΞϯϞσϧͷཧ࿦ԾઆͰ͋Δ, ໊໨ҝସϨʔτมಈͷࠃ಺খചՁ֨
΁ͷෆ‫׬‬શͳύεεϧʔͱ‫ۃ‬Ίͯ੔߹తͰ͋Δ.
Ұํ, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ༗ҙͳ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔્֐ޮՌΛղऍ͢Δ͜ͱ͸, લड़ͨ͠Α͏ʹʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯͷ‫ࡁܦ‬ཧ࿦͕ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍Ҏ্, ͦΕ΄Ͳࣗ໌ͳ͜ͱͰ͸ͳ͍. ͋͘·ͰՄೳੑͷҰ͕ͭͩ, ͦͷ‫ݪ‬Ҽͱͯ͠,ʮ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ʯͱ઒ฏ (2015) ͕ࢦఠ͢Δ 1972 ೥ 5 ݄ 15 ೔ͷԭೄฦؐ௚‫ޙ‬ͷಹ೼ࢢͰසൃͨ͠ʮศ৐஋্͛ʯ
͕ߟ͑ΒΕΔ. 2.4 અͰલड़ͨ͠Α͏ʹ, ԭೄฦؐ࣌ʹ͓͚Δถυϧ͔Β೔ຊԁ΁ͷୈ 6 ࣍௨՟ަ‫׵‬͸ 1 υϧ 305ԁͷެࣜϨʔτͰ࣮ࢪ͞Εͨ. ͔͠͠, ༌ೖ‫ऀۀ‬Λ‫ؚ‬Ί͢΂ͯͷখച‫͕͜ऀۀ‬ͷެࣜϨʔτͰถυϧՁ֨Λ೔ຊԁՁ֨ʹվగͨ͠༁Ͱ͸ͳ͍. ศ৐஋্͛ͷ௚઀తͳূ‫ڌ‬͸ଘࡏ͠ͳ͍͕, ʮ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ʯͷ෼ੳͰ͸, ฦؐલͷถυϧ‫ݐ‬Ձ֨ͱฦؐ‫ޙ‬ͷ೔ຊԁ‫ݐ‬Ձ͔֨Βࢉग़ͯ͠, ฏ‫ۉ‬తʹ͸ 1 υϧ=382.5 ԁͷϨʔτͰถυϧ͔Β೔ຊԁ΁ͷՁ֨վగ͕ߦΘΕͨ͜ͱ͕ใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔʢ‫ ࢙ࡁܦ‬p.1115ʣ. ͜ͷՁ֨ද‫ه‬ͷվగ࣌ʹ͓͚Δศ৐஋্͛ʹΑΓ, ԭೄͷ೔ຊԁՁ֨͸௨՟ަ‫ٸޙ׵‬ಅͨ͠. ಛʹϒϥϯυ඼ʹ͓͍ͯศ৐஋্͕͛‫ݦ‬ஶͰ͋Ε͹, ্‫ه‬ͷΑ͏ͳ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔્֐ޮՌͱͯࣝ͠ผ͞Ε͍ͯΔՄೳੑΛഉআͰ͖ͳ͍.*26

4.2.4 ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧΛ༻͍ͨ‫ྔܭ‬Ϟσϧ (1) ͷਪఆ݁Ռ͸, ද 4(a) ͷୈ 5 ྻͰใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔɽ͜͜Ͱ·ͣ֬ೝ͢Δ΂͖఺ͱͯ͠, ఆ਺߲ͷਪఆ஋ α̂ ͕ 12.710 ͱࡍཱͬͯେ͖͍͜ͱͰ͋Δ. ͜ͷ͜ͱ͸, ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍‫͍͓ͯʹظ‬ຊ౔ϖΞ಺ͰͷՁ͕֨ࠩ, ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼Ͱ͸ฏ‫ۉ‬తʹ 12% Λ௒͑Δ͜ͱΛҙຯ͍ͯ͠Δ. ·ͨԭೄϖΞ‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌͷਪఆ஋ β̂0 ΋ 10.611 ͱେ͖͘, ද 4(b) ͷୈ 5 ྻͰࣔ͞Ε͍ͯΔΑ͏ʹ, ͜ͷ࣌‫ظ‬ͷԭೄϖ*26 ʮ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ʯͱ઒ฏ (2015) ͸, ԭೄฦؐ‫ࢪ࣮ޙ‬༧ఆͷถυϧ‫ͯݐ‬Ձ͔֨Β೔ຊԁ‫ͯݐ‬Ձ֨΁ͷվగΛઌऔΓ͠, χΫιϯɾγϣοΫ‫ޙ‬ͷถυϧมಈ૬৔੍Լʹ͓͍ͯ΋, খച‫ʹऀۀ‬ΑΔถυϧ‫ͯݐ‬Ձ֨ʹ͓͚Δศ৐஋্͕͛͢Ͱʹ޿͕Γ, ԭೄͷҰൠ෺Ձ্ঢཁҼʹͳ͍ͬͯͨ͜ͱΛࢦఠ͍ͯ͠Δ. ͜ͷศ৐஋্͛ͷଘࡏʹ΋͔͔ΘΒͣ, ຊߘͷ෼ੳͰϒϥϯυ඼ʹ͓͍ͯถυϧมಈ૬৔੍Լʹ͓͚Δԭೄͷ࣮࣭‫ݮ‬Ձ͕‫͞࡯؍‬ΕΔཧ༝͸, ถυϧͷ೔ຊԁʹର͢Δ໊໨‫ݮ‬Ձ͕, ศ৐஋্͛ʹΑΓถυϧ‫໊ͯݐ‬໨Ձ֨ͷ্ঢΛ্ճ͍͔ͬͯͨΒͰ͋Δ.

16Ξʹ͓͚Δϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ͷฏ‫ۉ‬తՁ֨ࠩ͸ 23.321% ʹ΋ͳΔ.
͜͜Ͱॏཁͳ఺͸, ͜ͷԭೄ‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌͱͯ͠‫͞࡯؍‬ΕΔϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ͷେ͖ͳՁ͕֨ࠩɺ௨՟ମ੍ޮՌΛ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ‫ݶ‬ఆతͳ΋ͷʹ͍ͯ͠Δ͜ͱͰ͋Δ. ͜ͷ఺Λ֬ೝ͢ΔͨΊʹ, ԭೄϖΞμϛʔͱถυϧมಈ૬৔੍μϛʔͷΫϩε߲ͷ܎਺ͷਪఆ஋ γ̂0 ͸౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙʹෛͷ஋ (−0.933) Λऔ͍ͬͯΔ͕, ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ͸େ͖͘͸ͳ͍͜ͱΛ֬ೝͯ͠΄͍͠. ࣮ࡍ, ද 4(c) ͷୈ 5 ྻͰใࠂ͞Ε͍ͯΔΑ͏ʹ ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Λ‫ج‬४ʹͨ͠, ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍
ͷ૬ରత௨՟ޮՌ͸ λ̂F lex = −4.000% ͱͳΓ, ԭೄϖΞͷՁ֨ࠩΛ 4.0% ௿Լ͍ͤͯ͞Δ. ͔͜͠͠ͷมԽ෯͸ϒϥϯυ඼αϒαϯϓϧʹ͓͚Δ΋ͷ (86.280%) ͱൺ΂͋·Γʹ΋খ͍͞. ·ͨԭೄϖΞμϛʔͱ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍μϛʔͷΫϩε߲ͷ܎਺ͷਪఆ஋ γ̂1 ΋, ౷‫ܭ‬తʹ༗ҙʹਖ਼ͷ஋ 2.178 Λऔ͍ͬͯΔ͕, ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ͸ 2% ऑͱಛචͰ͖Δ΄Ͳେ͖͘͸ͳ͍. ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Λ‫ج‬४ͱͨ͠೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷ૬ରޮՌ͸ λ̂Com = 9.339% Ͱ͋Γ, ԭೄϖΞͷՁ֨ࠩΛ໿ 9.3% ্ঢ͍ͤͯ͞Δ. ͔͜͠͠ͷ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ମ੍ͷޮՌ΋, ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ͸ແࢹͰ͖Δ
΄Ͳখ͍͞.
Ҏ্ͷ‫͔࡯؍‬Β, ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ʹ͓͍ͯ͸, ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹҙຯͷ͋Δ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨ϕʔεͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔΁ͷ௨՟ମ੍ޮՌ͸‫͍ͳ͖Ͱ࡯؍‬, ͱ݁࿦Ͱ͖ΔͩΖ͏. ͜ͷཧ༝ͱͯ͠͸, ԭೄͷϊϯϒϥϯυαϒαϯϓϧʹ‫·ؚ‬ΕΔ໏ฑʹ͸, ੜ઱৯ྉ඼ͳͲͷౡ࢈඼͕ଟ͘‫·ؚ‬Ε͍ͯΔ͜ͱ͕·ͣ‫͛ڍ‬ΒΕΔ. ͜ͷΑ͏ͳౡ࢈඼͕ຊ౔ʹ༌ग़͞Εൢച͞ΕΔ͜ͱ͸΄ͱΜͲͳ͍. ͦΕΏ͑ԭೄͷϊϯϒϥϯυ඼͸͓Αͦඇ๵қࡒͰ͋Γ, ຊ౔ͷରԠ໏ฑͱ
ͷؒͰे෼ͳࡋఆऔҾ͕ߦΘΕ͍ͯͳ͍ͱࢥΘΕΔ. ͜ͷͨΊ௨՟ମ੍ͷมԽ͸ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ͷҰ෺ҰՁ੒ཱͷఔ౓ʹ͸Ө‫ڹ‬Λ༩͍͑ͯͳ͍ͱߟ͑ΒΕΔ.

5 ݁‫ޠ‬
ຊߘͰ͸, 1972 ೥ 5 ݄ 15 ೔ʹ࣮‫ͨ͠ݱ‬ԭೄͷ೔ຊຊ౔ฦؐલ‫ٿླྀʹޙ‬ɾԭೄͱຊ౔ʹ͓͍࣮ͯࢪ͞Εͨ, খച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪͷ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨ͷখചՁ֨ͷσʔλʹ஫໨͠, ࠃࡍۚ༥࿦Ͱ෼ੳ͕ਐΉ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτʹର͢Δ௨՟ମ੍ͷޮՌΛࣝผɾਪఆ͢Δ্Ͱ, ୈ 2 ࣍େઓ‫ޙ‬ͷླྀ‫ٿ‬ɾԭೄͷྺ࢙తมભ͕ཧ૝తͰ‫ࣗͳྗڧ‬વ࣮‫ڥ؀ݧ‬Λఏ‫͢ڙ‬Δ͜ͱΛٞ࿦ͨ͠.
খച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪશ඼໨ͷ͏ͪ, ৯ྉ඼ 41 ໏ฑʹ‫͍ͨͮج‬ຊߘͷ‫ྔܭ‬෼ੳͷओཁͳ݁Ռ͸, ҎԼͷΑ͏ʹཁ໿Ͱ͖Δ. ·ͣୈ 1 ʹ, มಈ૬৔੍͸౷‫ܭ‬తʹ΋‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ΋༗ҙͳ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔્֐ޮՌΛ࣋ͭ. ͜ͷ݁Ռ͸,໊໨ҝସϨʔτมಈͷࠃ಺খചՁ֨΁ͷෆ‫׬‬શͳύεεϧʔΛಋग़͢ΔχϡʔέΠϯδΞϯϞσϧͷཧ࿦తԾఆ
͕ଥ౰ͱࢥΘΕΔϒϥϯυ඼ʹ͓͍ͯΑΓ໌֬Ͱ͋Δ. ୈ 2 ʹ, ‫ݸ‬ผ঎඼Ϩϕϧͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔Λଅਐ͢Δʮ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ޮՌʯ͸, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍ͷޮՌͰଌΔ‫ݶ‬Γ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ͸༗ҙͰ͸ͳ͍. ಛʹϒϥϯυ඼Ͱ͸ɺΉ͠Ζ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ͷ࠾༻͸, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔Λ્֐͍ͯͨ͠Մೳੑ͢Β͋Δ. ୈ 3 ʹ, ඇ๵қࡒ͕ଟ਺Λ઎ΊΔͱࢥΘΕΔϊϯϒϥϯυ඼ʹ͓͍ͯ͸, ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτʹର͢Δ௨՟ମ੍ޮՌ͸, ‫ࡁܦ‬తʹ͸ແࢹͰ͖Δ΄Ͳখ͍͞.
͜ͷద੾ʹઃ‫͞ܭ‬Εͨࣗવ࣮‫ݧ‬ͷԼͰಘΒΕ্‫ه‬ͷ݁Ռ͸, ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ଅਐޮՌΛग़ு͢
Δ Berka et al. (2012) ͳͲͷۙ೥ͷχϡʔέΠϯδΞϯϞσϧͷ‫ڀݚ‬੒Ռͷଥ౰ੑΛ‫͍ͯ࣋͠ࢧ͘ڧ‬Δ. ҰํͰ,Cavallo et al. (2014a,b) ͕ओு͢ΔΑ͏ͳ, ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍‫ݻ‬༗ͷ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔੍Ҏ্ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔ଅਐޮՌ͸,ফඅऀ෺Ձࢦ਺Λߏ੒͢ΔΑΓ޿ൣͳ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨ʹ஫໨͢Δࡍ, ࣮ূతʹ‫ͱ݈ؤ‬͸‫͍ͳ͑ݴ‬.
΋ͪΖΜຊߘͷ෼ੳʹ͸͍͔ͭ͘ͷཹҙ͕͋Δ. ·ͣຊߘͷ෼ੳͱͦͷ݁࿦͸, ৯ྉ඼ 41 ໏ฑͷσʔλʹ‫ݶ‬ఆ͞Εͨ΋ͷͰ͋Δ఺͕͋͛ΒΕΔ. ຊߘͷࣗવ࣮‫ݧ‬Λ, ফඅऀ෺Ձࢦ਺ͷଞͷߏ੒඼໨ʹ֦ு͢Δ͜ͱ͸ࠓ‫ޙ‬ͷॏ17ཁͳ՝୊Ͱ͋Δ. ࣍ʹຊߘͷ DID ෼ੳ͸࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ෼෍ͷʮฏ‫ۉ‬஋ʯʹର͢Δ௨՟ମ੍ͷޮՌ͔͠ଌ͍ͬͯ
ͳ͍. ͔͠͠ 4.1 અͷ෼ੳ͕͍ࣔࠦͯ͠ΔΑ͏ʹ, ௨՟ମ੍͸࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτ෼෍ͷ‫ܗ‬ঢ়શମʹӨ‫ڹ‬Λ࣋ͪಘΔ.
͜ͷʮ෼෍ޮՌʯΛద੾ʹࣝผɾਪఆ͢ΔͨΊʹ͸, ෼Ґ఺ճ‫ؼ‬෼ੳͳͲͷԠ༻͕ඞཁͩΖ͏. ࠷‫ʹޙ‬, 4.2.3 અͰͷ෼ੳͰ໌Β͔ʹͳͬͨΑ͏ʹ, ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍͸ϒϥϯυ඼ͷ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔Λ્֐͍ͯ͠ΔՄೳੑ͕͋
Δ. ͜ͷ݁Ռ͸ू‫ܭ‬σʔλͷ࣌‫ྻܥ‬෼ੳʹ‫ ͮ͘ج‬Takagi et al. (2004) ͷ݁࿦ͱ੔߹తͰͳ͍. ͜ͷ‫ݪ‬ҼΛ͞Βʹ୳Δ͜ͱ͸, ຊߘ͕࢒ͨ͠ॏཁͳ‫ڀݚ‬՝୊Ͱ͋Δ.

ࢀߟจ‫ݙ‬
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American Economic Review 102, 179-185.
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Burstein A., Gopinath, G., 2014, International prices and exchange rates, in Gopinath, G., Helpman, E.,
and Rogoﬀ, K. eds., Handbook of International Economics, vol 4, 391 − 451, North Holland/Elsevier,
London.

Cavallo, A. Neiman, B., Rigobon, R., 2014a, Currency unions, product introductions, and the real exchange
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Crucini, M. J., Telmer, C.I.., 2012, Microeconomic sources of real exchange rate variability, NBER Working
Paper 17978.
Engel, C., 1999, Accounting for U.S. real exchange rate changes, Journal of Political Economy 107, 507-538.
Gopinath, G., Gourinchas, P.-O., Hsieh, C.-T., Li, N., 2011, International prices, costs, and markup diﬀerences, American Economic Review 101, 2450-2486.
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after all, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, 219-241.
Kano, K., Kano, T., 2016, Searching for a common currency eﬀect on price dispersion: 1972 Okinawa
reversion, mimeo, Hitotsubashi University.
Kano, K., Kano, T., Takechi, K., 2013, Exaggerated death of distance: revisiting distance eﬀects on regional
price dispersions, Journal of International Economics 90, 403-413.
Kano, T., 2016, Trend inflation and exchange rate dynamics: a new Keynesian approach, Centre for Applied
Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA) Working Paper 74/2016.
Marsh, I.W., Passari, E., Sarno, L., 2012, Purchasing power parity in tradable goods, in James, J., Marsh.
I.W., Sarno, L. eds. Handbook of Exchange Rates, chapter 7, John Wiley and Sons, Inc. Hoboken, NJ.
Monacelli, T, 2004, Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange in a small open
18

economy. Journal of International Economics 62, 191-217.
Morshed, A.K.M.M, 2007, Is there really a border eﬀect? Journal of International Money and Finance 26,
1229-1238.
Mussa, M., 1986, Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: evidence andimplications , Carnegies-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 25, 117-214.
Takagi, S., Shintani, M., Okamoto, T., 2004, Measuring the economic impact of monetary union: the caseof Okinawa, Review of Economics and Statistics 86, 858-867.
ʰখച෺Ձ౷‫ܭ‬ௐࠪ೥ใʱ, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, ೔ຊ੓෎૯ཧ෎౷‫ہܭ‬.
ʰୈ 11 ճಹ೼ࢢ౷‫( ॻܭ‬1971 ೥౓)ʱ, 1972, ಹ೼ࢢ໾ॴ‫ا‬ը෦‫ا‬ը՝.
ʰୈ 12 ճಹ೼ࢢ౷‫( ॻܭ‬1972 ೥౓)ʱ, 1973, ಹ೼ࢢ໾ॴ‫ا‬ը෦‫ا‬ը՝.
ʰԭೄ౷‫ܭ‬೥ؑʱ, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, ླྀ‫ٿ‬੓෎‫ا‬ը‫ہ‬౷‫ܭ‬ி͓Αͼԭೄ‫اݝ‬ը‫ہ‬౷‫ܭ‬՝.
ʰԭೄͷ౷‫ܭ‬ʱ, No.2 (1973 ೥ 2 ݄), 1973, ԭೄ‫اݝ‬ը‫ہ‬౷‫ܭ‬՝.
ླྀ‫ߦۜٿ‬ௐࠪ෦ฤ, 1986, ʰઓ‫ޙ‬ԭೄ‫࢙ࡁܦ‬ʱ, ླྀ‫ߦۜٿ‬.
ాதӳޫ, 1980,ʮ෺Ձʯ, ʰຊ౔෮‫ʹؼ‬ΑΔԭೄࣾձ‫ࡁܦ‬มಈௐࠪใࠂॻʱԼ‫ר‬, ୈ 15 ෦, p177-288, ԭೄࣾձ‫ܦ‬ࡁௐࠪҕһձ.
઒ฏ੒༤, 2015, ʰԭೄฦؐͱ௨՟ύχοΫʱ, ٢઒߂จ‫ؗ‬.
ܰ෦‫ݠ‬հ, 2012, ʰυΩϡϝϯτԭೄ‫ॲࡁܦ‬෼ʔີ໿ͱυϧճऩʱ, ‫ؠ‬೾ॻళ.

19

ද 1:

‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτઈର஋ͷ‫ه‬ड़౷‫( ྔܭ‬%)ɿ|qc,s,j (t)|

௨՟ମ੍

αϯϓϧ਺

ฏ‫ۉ‬

ϝσΟΞϯ

ඪ४ภࠩ

(a) ԭೄϖΞશαϯϓϧ

104,817 ɹɹ

18.74

11.41

22.77

ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔ ɹɹɹ

28,185 ɹɹ

18.19

9.96

24.64

ถυϧมಈ૬৔ ɹɹɹɹ18,516 ɹ

18.62

13.63

18.83

೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ɹɹɹ ɹɹ

58,116 ɹ

19.05

11.46

22.96

(b) ຊ౔ϖΞશαϯϓϧ ɹɹ2,358,781

10.79

6.10

14.11

ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔ ɹɹɹ

634,981

11.57

6.48

14.91

ถυϧมಈ૬৔ ɹɹɹɹ416,232

9.72

5.05

14.64

೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ ɹɹɹɹɹ

1,307,568

10.75

6.28

13.50

20

ද 2:

‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨Ϩϕϧ࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτઈର஋ͷ‫ه‬ड़౷‫( ྔܭ‬%): ϒϥϯυ඼ vs. ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼

௨՟ମ੍

αϯϓϧ਺

ฏ‫ۉ‬

ϝσΟΞϯɹඪ४ภࠩ(a) ԭೄϖΞ: ϒϥϯυ඼શαϯϓϧ

54,470 ɹɹ

10.29

8.11

8.77

ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔ ɹɹɹ

13,376 ɹɹ

7.96

6.74

6.16

ถυϧมಈ૬৔ ɹɹɹɹ9,882 ɹ

12.57

11.74

8.27

೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ɹɹɹ ɹɹ

31,212

10.56

7.99

9.61

(b) ຊ౔ϖΞ: ϒϥϯυ඼શαϯϓϧ

1,225,171 ɹ

5.66

3.72

6.52

ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔ ɹɹɹ

300,736 ɹ ɹ

5.62

3.81

6.37

ถυϧมಈ૬৔ ɹɹɹɹ222,166 ɹ

4.33

3.06

4.63

೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ɹɹɹ ɹɹ

702,269

6.09

3.93

7.01

(c) ԭೄϖΞ: ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼શαϯϓϧ ɹɹ50,347

27.89

18.59

28.89

ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔ ɹɹɹ

14,809

27.42

16.65

30.69

ถυϧมಈ૬৔ ɹɹɹɹ

8,634

25.55

17.77

24.34

೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ ɹɹɹɹɹ

26,904

28.90

20.00

29.17

(d) ຊ౔ϖΞ: ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼શαϯϓϧ ɹɹ1,133,610

16.33

11.00

17.58

ถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔ ɹɹɹ

334,245

16.92

11.33

18.04

ถυϧมಈ૬৔ ɹɹɹɹ194,066

15.88

9.95

19.07

೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ ɹɹɹɹɹ

605,299

16.14

11.17

16.80

21

ද 3:

DID ෼ੳʹΑΔ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτௐ੔΁ͷ௨՟ମ੍ޮՌͷࣝผฏ‫ޮۉ‬Ռ
ԭೄʴถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔ຊ౔ʴถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔

α + β0αԭೄʴถυϧมಈ૬৔ຊ౔ʴถυϧมಈ૬৔α + β0 + β1 + γ0

α + β1ԭೄʴ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟ຊ౔ʴ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟

α + β0 + β2 + γ1

α + β2ԭೄ‫ݻ‬ఆޮՌ

β0

ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍: ‫ݶ‬քޮՌ

γ0೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍: ‫ݶ‬քޮՌγ1ถυϧมಈ૬৔੍: ૬ରޮՌγ0λF lex = α+β0೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟੍: ૬ରޮՌγ1λCom = α+β
0

22

ද 4:

આ໌ม਺

܎਺

‫ྔܭ‬Ϟσϧ (1) ͷਪఆ

શαϯϓϧ

ϒϥϯυ඼

ϊϯϒϥϯυ඼

6.685∗∗∗

2.338∗∗∗

10.611∗∗∗(0.125) ɹɹ(0.056)(0.228)(a) ਪఆ஋
DOkinawa
c,s
DFlex
c,s

β0

−0.817β1∗∗∗−0.953(0.025) ɹɹ
DComm
c,s
DOkinawa∗ DFlexc,sc,sDOkinawa∗ DComm
c,s
c,s
ఆ਺߲

R

β2
γ0

0.839

(0.019) ɹɹ(0.014)5.905(0.176) ɹɹ(0.105)Nob(0.048)−0.329∗∗ ɹ(0.035)−0.933∗∗∗(0.335)

2.121

∗∗∗

2.178∗∗∗(0.150) ɹɹ(0.078)(0.279)

∗∗∗

4.505

(0.021) ɹɹ(0.019)(0.076)

0.286 ɹɹ

0.142

0.179

2,463,598 ɹɹ

1,279,641

1,183,957

4.628

2

∗∗∗

−0.610∗∗∗

∗∗∗

1.631

α

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

2.228

γ1

(0.014)

∗∗∗

0.272

∗∗∗

∗∗∗

12.710∗∗∗(b) ֤௨՟ମ੍ͷฏ‫ޮۉ‬Ռ (%)ԭೄʴถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔

α + β011.312 (0.124)

6.844 (0.057)

23.321 (0.236)

ԭೄʴถυϧมಈ૬৔α + β0 + β1 + γ012.723 (0.123)

11.796 (0.090)

21.778 (0.250)

ԭೄʴ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟

α + β0 + β2 + γ1

13.215 (0.082)

9.804 (0.056)

25.170 (0.172)

ຊ౔ʴถυϧ‫ݻ‬ఆ૬৔α4.628 (0.021)

4.505 (0.019)

12.710 (0.076)

ຊ౔ʴถυϧมಈ૬৔α + β13.811 (0.024)

3.552 (0.018)

12.100 (0.080)

ຊ౔ʴ೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟

α + β24.900 (0.186)

5.344 (0.017)

12.381 (0.071)(c) ԭೄϖΞʹର͢Δ௨՟ମ੍ͷ૬ରޮՌ (%)ถυϧมಈ૬৔

λF lex19.69586.280೔ຊԁ‫ڞ‬௨௨՟λCom

14.41830.99123−4.000
9.339

0

0

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.4

ਤ 1: ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτઈର஋ͷΧʔωϧฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍ɿશαϯϓϧ

0

0

1

2

2

0.8

4

4

0.6

6

6

0.4

8

8

0.2

10

10

0

12

12

0

0
1

2

2

0.8

4

4

0.6

6

6

0.4

8

8

0.2

10

10

0

12

12

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.8

1

1

0

0

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.4

ਤ 2: ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτઈର஋ͷΧʔωϧฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍ɿϒϥϯυ඼

1

0
0.8

0

0.6

5

5

0.4

10

10

0.2

15

15

0

20

20

1

0

0.8

0
0.6

5

5

0.4

10

10

0.2

15

15

0

20

20

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.8

1

1

0

0

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.4

ਤ 3: ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτઈର஋ͷΧʔωϧฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍ɿϊϯϒϥϯυ඼

0

0

1

1

1

0.8

2

2

0.6

3

3

0.4

4

4

0.2

5

5

0

6

6

0

0
1

1

1

0.8

2

2

0.6

3

3

0.4

4

4

0.2

5

5

0

6

6

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.8

1

1

2
0
-0.5

2

0
-0.5

ਤ 4: ‫ݸ‬ผ඼໨࣮࣭ҝସϨʔτͷΧʔωϧฏ‫׈‬Խ෼෍: ϒϥϯυ඼

4

4

0.5

6

6

0

8

8

0
-0.5

0
-0.5

10

2

2

10

4

4

12

6

6

12

8

8

0.5

10

10

0

12

12

0

0

0.5

0.5

ɹ

෇࿥ද 1: ໏ฑද

൪߸

ࡒ

ྐྵ೥

ԭೄ

1

Πϯελϯτ

1970

ʮωεΧϑΣʯʢ56g ೖʣຊ౔ͼΜೖΓʮωεΧϑΣʢࠇϥϕϧʣʯ 1

ίʔώʔ

2

3

Ωϟϥϝϧ

δϡʔε

ϒϥϯυ

ʢ150g ೖʣ

1971
1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1972
1973
1974

৿ӬϛϧΫΩϟϥϝϧ 14 ཻ৿ӬϛϧΫΩϟϥϝϧʢ14 ཻೖʣ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʮ৿ӬϛϧΫΩϟϥϝϧʢ10 ཻೖʣʯ1971

όϠϦʔεʢͼΜ୅Λআ͘ʣ1 ຊΦϨϯδδϡʔεʮόϠϦʔεʯͼΜ

1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970

ΩοίʔϚϯҹͼΜ٧ʢ1.8L ೖʣೱ‫ͼ্ޱ‬Μ٧ʢ2L ೖʣʮΩοίʔϚϯ

1

1

٧ʢ200cc ೖʣͼΜ୅Λআ͘൒μʔε

4

͠ΐ͏Ώ

1

ҹʯ

5

ιʔε

1971
1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971

͍͔ΓҹͼΜ٧ʢ360cc ೖʣதೱιʔεฒ੡ͼΜ٧ʢ360mL ೖʣ˞

1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

(Π) Φϋϥҹന্‫ڃ‬඼தΦϋϥҹന্‫ڃ‬඼ฒାೖΓʢ1kg ೖʣ˞঎ඪࢦఆ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1

঎ඪࢦఆ

6

Έͦ

28

1

໏ฑද (ଓ͖ʣ
ࡒ൪߸

ࡒ

ྐྵ೥

ԭೄ

ຊ౔

ϒϥϯυ

7

Խֶௐຯྉ

1970

ຯͷૉϙϦΤνϨϯାೖΓ 150g

ά ϧ λ ϛ ϯ ࢎ ι ʔ μʮ ຯ ͷ ૉ ੨ ା1(90g)ʯ
1971
1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

άϧλϛϯࢎιʔμʮຯͷૉதାʢ120g
ೖʣʯ

8

࠭౶

1970

ന࠭౶ ༌ೖ඼άϥχϡʔ౶্‫ڃ‬඼

্ന

1

600g

9

10

ਗ਼ञ

ίʔϥ

1971
1972
1973
1974

༌ೖ඼άϥχϡ౶্‫ڃ‬඼ʢ500g ೖʣ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971
1972
1973
1974

݄‫ ףܡ‬1.8L ೖಛ‫ڃ‬ͼΜ٧ʢ1800mL ೖʣ˞঎ඪࢦఆ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971

ίΧίʔϥʢͼΜ୅Λআ͘ʣͼΜ٧ʢ190mL ೖʣͼΜ୅Λআ͘ʮί11Χɾίʔϥʯ

11

12

όλʔ

͔·΅͜

1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971

ΰʔϧσϯ CHORN ҹʢ؈ೖ 340g

্ Χ ϧ τ ϯ ೖ Γ (225g ೖ)ʮ ઇ ҹ ό

ೖʣ

λʔʯ

1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ฒ‫ؙ‬௕ 1 ຊ

খ൘͖ͭத

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

29

1

໏ฑද (ଓ͖ʣ
ࡒ൪߸

ࡒ

ྐྵ೥

ԭೄ

ຊ౔

13

ίϩοέ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ී௨඼ 1 ‫ݸ‬

ฒ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971

༌ೖ඼ Kraft Cheese ҹ্‫ڃ‬඼ʢ227gʣ ‫ܗݻ‬ϓϩηεΧϧτϯೖΓ (225g)ʮઇ

1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970

ϚϧϋϚϚιʔηʔδ 1 ‫ݸ‬্ (110g-130g)

1971
1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971
1972
1973
1974

ਫࣽαϯϕϧҹఔ౓ʢ200g ೖʣਫࣽฏ 2 ߸͔Μ (220g ೖ) ঎ඪࢦఆ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971

310g

14

νʔζ

ϒϥϯυ

1

ҹϓϩηενʔζʯ

15‫ڕ‬೑ιʔηʔ

1

δ

16

17

αό؈

Έ͔Μ؈٧

શ౶ʢMOYʣ5 ߸͔Μʢ312g ೖʣ˞

11ʢ঎ඪࢦఆʣ

18

৯༻༉

1972
1973
1974

தཻʢ310g ೖʣ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

େ౾༉্‫ڃ‬ౡ࢈඼ 1.8L

ఱ΀Β༉ϙϦ༰‫ث‬ೖΓ (450g)

େ౾༉ʢ1.8Lʣʏେ౾༉্‫ڃ‬඼ౡ࢈඼ 1.8L Ϗϯೖ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

30

1

໏ฑද (ଓ͖ʣ
ࡒ൪߸

ࡒ

ྐྵ೥

ԭೄ

ຊ౔

ϒϥϯυ

19

ઝ஡

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

೔ຊ࢈த‫ ڃ‬600g

த

1

ʏ

ʏ

த‫ڃ‬඼

த˞ʢ঎඼໏ࢦఆʣ

த‫ڃ‬඼ 600g

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

Ϧϓτϯߚ஡؈ೖ 227g؆қแ૷ʮ೔౦ߚ஡੨ɾಛ༻඼ʢ80gʣʯ 1ϦϓτϯςΟʔόοΫʢ48 ାೖʣϦϓτϯςΟʔόοΫ 10 ାೖΓ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ౡ࢈඼ϢχΦϯҹ 330g

ී௨඼ౡ࢈඼ϢχΦϯҹ (330g แ) ఔ౓

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970

ΦΩίҹϙϦΤνϨϯାೖΫϩϨϥೖଈ ੮ Ұ ߸ Ί Μ ఔ ౓ ା ೖ Γ (1ʙ4 ݄

85g

85g5ʙ12 ݄ 100gʣʏଈ੮Ұ߸໙ఔ౓ାೖΓ (100g)

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ଈ੮த՚໙ʢ๮ঢ়ϥʔϝϯΛআ͘) ା

20

21

22

ߚ஡

৯ύϯ

ଈ੮ϥʔϝϯ

1971
1972
1973
1974

1

1

ೖΓ (100g)

23

খഴค

1970

ౡ࢈඼ӋҥҹϙϦΤνϨϯାೖΓ

ബྗค 1 ౳ค 1kg

550g
1971

ౡ࢈඼ӋҥҹϙϦΤνϨϯାೖ (500g

ʏ

ೖ)

24

25

·͙Ζ

ͨ͜

1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971
1972
1973
1974

্‫ڃ‬඼੾਎ (ࢗ਎༻) 600g

͖Θͩ੾Γ਎ (ࢗ਎༻) 100g

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971
1972
1973
1974

-

·ͩ͜ʢΏͰ΋ͷʣ

ΏͰͩ͜଍

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

31

1

໏ฑද (ଓ͖ʣ
ࡒ൪߸

ࡒ

ྐྵ೥

ԭೄ

ຊ౔

25

ͨ͜

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

-

·ͩ͜ʢΏͰ΋ͷʣ

ΏͰͩ͜଍

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ϩʔε

ϩʔε

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ϩʔε

ϩʔε

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ग़ճΓ඼த‫ۄ‬த‫ڃ‬඼

-

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ग़ճΓ඼த‫ڃ‬඼

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

-

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ౡ࢈඼௕େࠜ༿ͳ͠த‫ڃ‬඼

-

26

27

28

29

30

‫ڇ‬೑

ಲ೑

Ωϟϕπ

അླॼ

͍ͩ͜Μ

ʏ

ʏ
ʏ
ʏ
ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

-

ʏ
ʏ
ʏ

ʏ
ʏ
ʏ
ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

-

32

ϒϥϯυ

໏ฑද (ଓ͖ʣ
ࡒ൪߸

ࡒ

ྐྵ೥

ԭೄ

ຊ౔

31

ʹΜ͡Μ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ग़ճΓ඼੺ͷ 5 ੇਓࢀத‫ڃ‬඼

-

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ग़ճΓ඼ (্༿෇Λআ͘ʣத‫ڃ‬඼

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

-

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

(୆࿷࢈Λআ͘) ग़ճΓ඼-ʏ༿ͨ·Ͷ͗Λͷͧ͘

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ग़ճΓ඼ (Ֆ͖Ύ͏ΓΛআ͘ʣ্‫ڃ‬඼

-

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ग़ճΓ඼த‫ڃ‬඼ (1 ‫ݸ‬໿ 200g)

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ग़ճΓ඼த‫ڃ‬඼

32

33

34

35

36

͝΅͏

‫ۄ‬Ͷ͗

͖Ύ͏Γ

τϚτ

ϐʔϚϯ

ʏ
ʏ
ʏ
ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ
ʏ
ʏ

ʏ
ʏ
ʏ
ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ
ʏ
ʏ
ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

-

ʏ
ʏ
ʏ
ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

33

ϒϥϯυ

໏ฑද (ଓ͖ʣ
ࡒ൪߸

ࡒ

ྐྵ೥

ԭೄ

ຊ౔

37

͖͋ͣ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ग़ճΓ඼ฒ

-

ʏ

େཻ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ബ༿ฒϚϧΧϯҹ (20g ೖ)

-

ʏ

ബ༿ ฒ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1970
1971
1972
1973
1974

ฒ

‫͠͝ݜ‬Λআ͘

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971
1972
1973
1974

-

ബ༲͛

ฒ࢛֯‫( ܕ‬౾෗ͷബ༲͛)

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

1971

Τΰҹఔ౓ (227g ೖ)

38

39

40

41

΄͍͚ͨ͠͠

ͱ͏;

͋ͿΒ͋͛

ϚϤωʔζ

ϙϦΤςΟϨϯ༰‫ث‬ೖΓ (300g ೖΓ)ʮΩϡʔϐʔϚϤωʔζʯ

1972
1973
1974

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ʏ

ຊ౔ʹಉ͡

ʏ

34

ϒϥϯυ

1