Policy Brief

ADDRESSING THE HIGH DEBTGRIDLOCK TO SUPPORTPOST-COVID INCLUSIVEDEVELOPMENT IN LOW AND
MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRIESTask Force 8

Inclusive, Resilient, and Greener
Infrastructure Investment and Financing

1Linda Faustina Arthur (Asian Development Bank Institute)Nicolas J.A Buchoud (Grand Paris Alliance for Metropolitan Development)
Sachin Chaturvedi (Research and Information System for Developing Countries)
Michael Cohen (School for Public Policy, The New School)
Edoardo Croci (Bocconi University)
Priyadarshi Dash (Research and Information System for Developing Countries)
Sukhmani Kaur (Research and Information System for Developing Countries)
Valeria Lauria (Peking University)
Raja Al Marzoqi (Institute of Diplomatic Studies)•

Siddhi Sharma (Research and Information System for Developing Countries) bb

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Abstract
Infrastructure investments have been accorded high priority within the Group of 20 (G20).
In 2019, quality infrastructure principles were endorsed as a way to raise the level andquality of public and private infrastructure finance around the globe. However, the onsetof the COVID-19 pandemic has worsened the external debt situation of the emerging
markets and developing economies (EMDEs), which are struggling with high inflation andrecession. This has accentuated macro-economic fragilities in lower- and middle-income
countries (LMICs) to a point that makes pre-pandemic infrastructure investment
trajectories largely infeasible. Mobilising financial resources domestically and fromexternal sources, for instance through multilateral development banks (MDBs) is
important but only an integrated medium-term new infrastructure development vision
could bring fresh perspectives. This policy brief explores how a “new narrative” oninfrastructure finance could emerge within the G20. It argues that the focus on endlessinfrastructure creation instead of maintenance, adaptation and distributional impacts
often dilutes the infrastructure-sustainable development synergies.

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Challenges
Even before COVID-19 pandemic, debt touched record levels for many developing countries. At
the end of 2019, government debt as a percentage of GDP was 54 percent (Figure 1). The
COVID-19 related recession and economic policy responses by governments further led toaccumulation of sovereign debt and expanded the list of EMDEs in debt distress. The average
total debt burden among the low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) increased byapproximately 9 percent of GDP in 2020 compared with an average of 1.9 percent of GDP overthe previous decade (World Bank, 2022). This high debt burden is unlikely to fall in the future
as it is part of large fiscal programmes and exists in a period where government revenues arecollapsing.
Figure 1: General government gross debt in EMDEs (percentage of GDP), 2010-2022

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database.

Sovereign debt crises are costly for sustained growth. High levels of sovereign debt can resultin high interest rates raising borrowing costs for firms and households thereby dampening
economic activity in an economy. Restoration of the “business-as-usual” monetary policy
stance in advanced economies as the crisis exerts pressure on borrowing costs and exchange
rates leads to capital outflows from emerging markets and exacerbates debt sustainability
concerns. Furthermore, in case of default, the economic performance of a country mightcollapse. Every year a country remains in default, its GDP growth reduces by 1–1.5 per cent(Borensztein and Panizza, 2009).
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In terms of social costs, high debt reduces a government’s ability to spend on social safety nets
and public goods, worsening inequality. For instance, the current crisis and the trends infinancing for sustainable development are exacerbating the limited fiscal space faced by many
LMICs, leaving less money to spend on development projects (IMF, 2020; IMF, 2021). The
prospects of a slow recovery places further pressure on government budgets, even as theimmediate effects of the pandemic subside. Countries with a significant debt build-up areforced to sacrifice future growth, jobs and opportunities with a dire impact on the youth,
informal sectors, social capital and innovation capacities. Additionally, fiscally constrained
economies are less resilient to economic shocks (Augustin et al. 2022). The consequences gomuch beyond the fragile nations. For instance, the global development of a circular economy
depends on macroeconomic transformations across global supply chains that span across all
the nations.
With high levels of public debt and additional pressures induced by the pandemic on all major
sources of development finance, LMICs are struggling to finance new and existing
infrastructures (OECD, 2020). However, the demand for infrastructure in EMDEs and its
correlation with economic growth and employment creation necessitates more funding forresilient and inclusive recovery. Of the current infrastructure financing gap of approximately
US$2.5 trillion annually, around 75 percent is made up of infrastructure investments indeveloping markets (UNCTAD, 2020). If no mechanism is found to address the narrowed fiscal
space, then economies will operate at low equilibrium. Therefore, resolution of the debt gridlockis crucial for building a sustainable, inclusive and resilient growth trajectory in the post-COVID
period.

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Proposals for G20
Factors that could prompt infrastructure development in G20 countries in a different way
include:1. Maintenance of infrastructure
All infrastructure assets are subject to gradual wear or tear. Although maintenance is needed tomitigate the effects of ageing and offset the loss in asset value associated with it, many
countries do not make it a priority as it warrants. Subjecting maintenance activities to budget
cuts in the short term may lead to greater costs in later years. When maintenance is low, vital
infrastructure assets such as power plants, highways connecting major cities or international
airports are more fragile and exposed to hazards and disasters. The temporary or permanent
closure of strategic assets bears significant fiscal costs, both direct (the need to repair or rebuild
the asset) and indirect (negative impact on economic activity, hence on tax revenues).
Furthermore, without strong public investment management practices, the urgency surrounding
replacement or rebuilding may lead to ill-designed and ill-advised infrastructure, hence
perpetuating the fiscal costs of not maintaining the assets in the first place (Blazey et al, 2020).
The costs of delaying or avoiding maintenance spending can cause user, human and ecologicalcosts.
Additionally, the need to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in line with theclimate targets of the Paris Agreement is greater than ever, further strengthening governments’and private investors’ focus on planning, designing, building, operating and maintaining
sustainable infrastructure as a comprehensive strategy. Annual maintenance spending varying
between 1 and 3 percentage points of GDP will be needed to reach the SDGs in key infrastructure
sectors by 2030 (Rozenberg and Fay, 2019). For advanced economies, it entails thatmaintenance of investments in ageing infrastructure can no longer be deferred. In particular,
modernisation of aged infrastructure and wider implementation of preventive maintenance(PM) and predictive maintenance (PdM) approaches could lead to future reduction ofmaintenance costs, also by enhancing energy efficiency and the use of ecologically friendly
technologies (D20 Statement, 2021). In emerging markets, this includes investments in new
infrastructure but not compromising on the maintenance of existing social infrastructures.
Preventive maintenance is the routine maintenance of equipment and assets in order to keepthem running and prevent any expensive unplanned downtime from unexpected equipment
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failure. A successful maintenance strategy requires planning and scheduling maintenance ofequipment before a problem occurs. On the other hand, predictive maintenance techniques aredesigned to help determine the condition of in-service equipment to estimate when maintenanceshould be performed. This approach promises cost savings over routine or time-based
preventive maintenance, because tasks are performed only when warranted. More standardised
design and construction processes also create the opportunity to save on long term
maintenance due to similar replacement parts and equipment being used (Fransen et al. 2018).
Identification of maintenance requirements and costs leading up to the investment decision
helps identify the revenue sources and capabilities needed to ensure that infrastructure assets
will deliver public services as expected.
Sustainable access to funding for maintenance also needs to be ensured. Some of the methods
involve (Blazey et al, 2020):
i)

User charges: In circumstances when infrastructure is operated in a commercial
environment, revenues from user charges may provide funding for the operator tocarry out maintenance. For example, where a toll road is operated through a publicprivate partnership, the private partner may be contractually responsible for upkeepof the road using the revenue generated from tolls. In other cases, potential sourcesof revenues through user charges may remain an option available to a government.
This is relevant for sub-national governments that might not have existing funding
sources to support the upkeep of roads, though it requires the capacity to collect fees
and to forecast user demand for the services.

ii)

Auxiliary business activities: Infrastructure assets often include land and other asset
categories that are connected to but not directly used in providing the core services
delivered by an infrastructure asset. By way of example, airport entities earnconcession revenues from food and beverage services, duty-free sales, car parking,airport hotels and so on. Commercial business practices for auxiliary businessactivities apply to a range of infrastructure assets, including seaports, railways andmotorways, although the percentage of revenues generated is typically lower thanachieved at airports. Revenue from auxiliary activities does not directly relate to orcontribute to maintenance expenses, but by increasing the overall returns from
infrastructure assets, it creates potential for increased funding for maintenance.

iii)

National wealth funds: The wealth of a fund is the net value of a portfolio of publicly
owned assets and the manager is charged with the responsibility to achieve specified

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results. These goals provide incentives for the asset manager to consider
maintenance to maximise the portfolio value of the assets through the optimised
operation of the assets.
iv)

Holding companies: A number of countries have established holding companies toown and govern a portfolio of infrastructure assets at arm’s length from thegovernment. As with national wealth funds, the holding company aims to maximise
the value of its asset portfolio. The companies can define the use of dividends,
including reinvestment into businesses.

2. Developing a supply of high quality bankable infrastructure projects
Given the magnitude of the infrastructure funding gap, the G20 must adopt a new collaborative
approach to crowd-in private capital in order to harness the large pool of private savings looking
for long-term investment. The quantity of dry powder available and level of interest in emerging
markets presents a great opportunity for governments to tap into the pot of funding available.
The biggest constraint to unlocking private finance is the shortage of well-structured, bankableproject pipelines. Therefore, there is a need to develop a supply of bankable infrastructure
projects that are aligned with the SDGs, including climate change. This would include coming up
with a clear pipeline of greenfield and brownfield projects via asset recycling, to offer them as
an investable asset class for long-term investors like pension funds, insurance companies andinfrastructure funds (KPMG, 2020).
Upstream project preparation serves as a critical first step in making infrastructure projects
bankable, i.e. having infrastructure projects prepared up to a stage where risk is appropriately
allocated between the public and private sector such that institutional investors are willing toengage. This will promote robust pipelines of high-quality, sustainable and bankableinfrastructure projects that are commercially attractive to institutional investors.
The design of the project pipeline would need to include on a systematic basis SDG parametersand metrics that are aligned with developing investment practices among both conventional andimpact institutional investors. There is a growing need to incorporate environmental, social andgovernance (ESG) criteria in infrastructure projects as investors will insist on higher levels ofcompliance with respect to ESG indicators in the years to come, especially in emerging markets.
For EMDE governments, incorporating and reporting on ESG considerations throughout the
infrastructure project lifecycle not only sends an important signal to the market – which has
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increasingly embraced ESG as a key factor in investment decision-making – but also, at theasset-level, makes infrastructure programmes and projects more resilient and sustainable overthe long-term. Sustainable infrastructure that is informed by ESG factors is more capable ofwithstanding external shocks – such as the effects of climate change and other hazards –optimising value for money for both end-users and investors over the asset lifecycle. EMDEs
must deepen ESG and climate-related reporting standards and ensure that their approach tosustainability is aligned to the broader market. Likewise, institutional investors must adopt andadhere to sustainability frameworks to ensure that ESG factors are rigorously analysed tofacilitate more informed due diligence processes and investment decisions. (Swiss re Institute,2020).
In efforts to bring more bankable infrastructure projects to market, EMDE governments
areincreasingly turning to project preparation facilities (PPFs) housed in MDBs. PPFs provide
support at each stage of the infrastructure project lifecycle – from planning to selection, prefeasibility through feasibility, design, choice of procurement, structuring and contractdevelopment to financial closing. PPFs enhance the enabling environment for infrastructure
project preparation in EMDEs by developing standardised bidding frameworks, procurement
documents and concession agreements. Such heavy lifting by PPFs at the upstream project
development stage can optimise the conditions and overall bankability of infrastructure projects
in ways that account for the unique operating environments of EMDEs while still meeting theinvestment preferences and risk profiles that private lenders and financiers desire.
3. Convergence of social, physical and digital infrastructure investment
The COVID-19 pandemic has forcefully demonstrated that the composition of infrastructure in
most countries is not properly balanced. In the United States there is more investment in roads
and energy than in health care, and within the health sector, not enough for preparedness. A
second lesson from the pandemic is that it has revealed deep structural inequalities in income,
services and other opportunities within rural and urban populations. The idea of "infrastructure
for distribution", i.e. justifying and designing infrastructure to help address the structuralinequalities. These include the location, scale, cost and operations of infrastructure so that its
benefits accrue to the people who need it most. Programmes such as slum upgrading or bustee
improvement are more likely to deliver benefits to the poorest in our societies.
The pandemic calls for increased spending to address certain priorities, such as digitalconnectivity, health care, welfare, pandemic-proofing of public services and infrastructure suchas transportation. However, these infrastructure systems must be connected in a way thatcreates a seamless flow of services to society. Hence, achieving convergence between the

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physical, social and digital infrastructures is a novel way of harnessing existing infrastructure toachieve sustainability and resilience.
The digital economy is emerging to become one of the most important growth drivers and an
indispensable part of the modern economy. Despite the rising importance of the digital
economy, the financing gap in digital infrastructure in Asia is growing significantly, which ispredicted to reach US$512 billion by 2040. Financing gaps are still prevalent in the LMICs. Morethan 50 percent of the digital infrastructure investment gap will be in Asia by 2040, with apotentially adverse impact on economic growth. Digital infrastructure development (both softand hard) is the foundation of the digital economy. It has to be aligned with different maturity
levels, where digital availability, access, appetite and abilities should be considered holistically.
The benefits of a strong digital infrastructure would spill over directly to hard infrastructure.
Network Rail in the United Kindgom was looking for a way to reduce rail downtime andmaintenance costs in its network. In response, it installed sensors around 64,000 assets on its
rails and switched infrastructure with an artificial intelligence-driven big data platform to analyse
incoming data to predict failures of physical assets in advance. This has enabled accuratescheduling and budgeting for “just-in-time” maintenance, thereby reducing in-service failures
and unplanned maintenance. The reduction in unplanned maintenance and site visits has cut
costs by 30 percent, leading to high return on investment. Having achieved a 500 percent returnon digital investment, this initiative indicates potential for attracting investors.
In regard to digital infrastructure improving social infrastructural outcomes, the San Antonio
Water System (SAWS) in the United States is an interesting example. The Clean Water Act of1972 seeks to eliminate sewer overflows, usually caused by blockages or excess storm water.
SAWS work crews have used a pipe cleaning schedule based on historical information at over
800 sites, costing US$1.2 million annually. However, they lacked real-time information about
actual flow restrictions implying that overflows still occur. In response to this persistentproblem, SAWS piloted a digital system to obtain real-time network information at 10 highfrequency cleaning sites. Iridium satellite-connected sensor networks were embedded inmanhole covers. Digital applications were implemented to process and analyse water level data,
display and alert management. The crews were directed to clean based on measured waterlevels. This provides useful insights for water supply planning and sewage systems, especiallyin urban areas (AIIB, 2020a).

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4. Financing
Financing for infrastructure, given the supply side constraints, require innovative solutions suchas creating aggregation platforms and optimal utilisation of existing sources of finance.
Borrowing for infrastructure will remain an indispensable element of the financing mix. However,
attracting investors requires investing better, which is all about the prioritisation of investments
and avoiding poor choices. The viability of infrastructure projects can be enhanced by a soundand flexible economic environment that militates against a build-up of macroeconomic stressand imbalances due to higher infrastructure investment rates. While policies may vary bycountry, prescriptions include averting large exchange rate misalignments, filtering out
unnecessary trade protectionist measures (both tariff and non-tariff) that would increase thecost of imported inputs and hence the total project costs, putting fiscal frameworks in place forinvesting more counter-cyclically and increasing public savings to make space for moreinvestment, as well as promoting a sound financial sector to encourage private savings. The lastmeasure would also allow investors to finance themselves in local currencies thus removing theforeign exchange risk, which can be substantial for many Asian countries and which act as adeterrent to more infrastructure investments.
Local currency financing will become important to reduce fiscal costs of currency mismatches
in project financing as well as in context of higher risk profiles in EMDEs vis-à-vis foreign
financiers. Strengthening domestic government bond markets would improve efficiency in debt
financing and strengthen the reliability of long-term interest rate benchmarks for infrastructure
projects. Additionally, policies and regulations for domestic markets would need to be
reinforced. Therefore, deepening long-term local currency markets should be an active policy
action.
The COVID-19 pandemic has brought into focus the struggle EMDE governments face inobtaining and maintaining an investment-grade sovereign rating. However, the strategic use ofcredit enhancement products can help mobilise private capital by de-risking investments.
Domestic institutional investors (pension funds and insurance companies) are generally well
below their potential to support a long-term infrastructure finance agenda. There is a strong caseto support both policymakers and investors developing the conditions for a greater mobilisationof resources into infrastructure sectors while maintaining prudent investment strategies.
Depending on the country, strengthening the pension and insurance sectors through reviewing
investment regulations and supporting investor consortiums for greater capacity andeconomies of scale in investment strategies is needed. Scaling-up tools for reducing projectrisks as well as blended finance solutions for sustainable infrastructure will be critical.

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10The provision of risk mitigation tools, including the use of credit enhancement products,
optimises the risk-return profile for institutional investors and enhances the overall affordability
and bankability of infrastructure assets. Against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic where
public budgets for countries are severely constrained, the provision of credit enhancements not
only mitigates risks to investors but also provides a pathway to enhance the overall affordabilityof infrastructure assets – thereby helping EMDEs make more efficient and cost-effective
investments in needed infrastructure. Risk mitigation instruments such as guarantees are
particularly well suited for mobilising resources because they enable MDBs and development
finance institutions (DFIs) to strategically de-risk investments while crowding in private
investment. The strategic use of guarantees – largely offered by MDBs in the form of partial
credit guarantees and partial risk guarantees – can provide lower borrowing costs and longer
loan tenors to borrowers, and cover potential payment-related, counterparty, regulatory andpolitical risks, among others (Swiss Re Institute, 2020).
One way of raising financing for infrastructure can be aggregation platforms. Infrastructure
pipelines in EMDEs primarily comprise individual smaller volume transactions that are not ideallysuited to institutional investors in search of long-term, investment-grade assets with large ticket
sizes. Aggregation platforms, which securitise several smaller and/or below-investment grade
assets into a single, pooled vehicle, can improve the risk-return profile and overall financial
attractiveness to the institutional investors. Over the short-term, EMDE governments canpackage existing, brownfield infrastructure projects on a domestic or regional scale. Likewise,over the longer-term, EMDEs can warehouse greenfield assets in existing vehicles and aggregate
them over time so that the revenue flows from greenfield and brownfield assets can be pooled.
Bond finance can be leveraged as a financing instrument for infrastructure projects. The
advantage of project bonds as a means of debt financing is the flexibility that they offer instructuring the issue. They could have flexible or fixed interest rates and released in tranches
that could be issued in different currencies and for different tenors (AIIB, 2020b), hence a
preferred way for investors. Additionally, there is untapped potential in public funds (e.g. social
security funds) that could be greater contributors to long-term financing given their, generally,
long-term liabilities. These interventions could help governments in handling potential politicalpressures during the post-COVID-19 phase to use long-term investors to fund growing fiscal andinvestment needs under non-commercial terms.

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5. Regional and Sectoral Cooperation
Existing initiatives at the national level like the Global Infrastructure Hub, the Blue Dot Frameworkand now the Build Back Better Group of seven (G7) process, are repackaging old concepts andsurfing on trendy ones but do not provide fresh thinking. The focus should instead be on
coordination at the regional and sectoral level, integrating all components of infrastructure.
Lessons from India can be taken in this regard. The PM Gati Shakti Initiative - National Master
Plan for Multi-modal Connectivity, essentially a digital platform to bring 16 ministries including
railways and roadways together for integrated planning and coordinated implementation of
infrastructure connectivity projects, can be conceptualised in other G20 member countries. The
multi-modal connectivity will provide integrated and seamless connectivity for the movement ofpeople, goods and services from one mode of transportation to another. It will facilitate the last
mile connectivity and also reduce travel time for the people.

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