Coal
2021

Analysis and forecast to 2024

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
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ThailandAbstract

Coal 2021

Abstract
Coal 2021 is the world’s most comprehensive forecast of coaldemand, supply and trade, based on detailed analysis of themost recent data at country and sectoral level, broken down
by coal grade (thermal coal, coking coal, pulverised coal
injection and lignite). Coal 2021 presents real data for 2019and 2020, the most up-to-date estimates for 2021, andforecast for 2022, 2023 and 2024. Leveraging the IEA’s interfuel and inter-regional expertise, Coal 2021 report isconsistent with the assumptions and forecasts for oil, gas,
electricity, renewables and energy efficiency in other agency
reports.
Coal 2021 places a special focus on China, whose dominanceof coal markets – it is the largest consumer, producer andimporter – has no parallel with any other country or any other
fuel. India, the second-largest producer, consumer andimporter, also receives a special attention. Whereas thecurrent speed of policy and market changes isunprecedented, Coal 2021 looks for the underlying indicators
which will determine coal markets realities through 2024.
Given that coal is the largest source of electricity generation,
the second-largest source of primary energy and the largest
read for anyone with an interest in energy or climate.
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source of energy-related CO2 emissions, Coal 2021 is a must-Table of contents

Coal 2021

Table of contents
Executive summary .........................................................................................5
Demand .............................................................................................................9
Are we on track for net zero emissions by 2050? ................................... 31
Supply .............................................................................................................34
Trade ...............................................................................................................51
Thermal coal ............................................................................................ 54
Metallurgical coal ..................................................................................... 62
Prices and costs ............................................................................................68
Prices ....................................................................................................... 69
Costs ....................................................................................................... 79
Coal mining projects .....................................................................................87

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Annexes ..........................................................................................................98

Executive summary

Coal 2021

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Executive summary

Executive summary

Coal 2021

Coal-fired power generation is set to reach an all-timehigh in 2021

Executive summary

The declines in global coal-fired power generation in 2019 and 2020
led to expectations that it might have peaked in 2018. But 2021
dashed those hopes. With electricity demand outpacing low-carbon
supply, and with steeply rising natural gas prices, global coal power
generation is on course to increase by 9% in 2021 to 10 350
terawatt-hours (TWh) – a new all-time high. However, coal’s shareof the global power mix in 2021 is expected to be 36% – 5
percentage points below its 2007 peak. In the United States and theEuropean Union, coal power generation is forecast to increase byalmost 20% in 2021 but will not reach 2019 levels. By contrast,
estimated growth of 12% in India and 9% in China will push coal
power generation to record levels in both countries. Taking into
account the rebound in global industrial output, overall coal demand
worldwide is expected to grow by 6% in 2021, bringing it close to
the record levels it reached in 2013 and 2014.

The 2020 collapse in coal demand turned out to besmaller than anticipatedEven before the pandemic, coal faced a difficult outlook for 2020.
Demand was being squeezed by a mild winter in the Northern
Hemisphere, low natural gas prices and strong renewables growth.
When electricity demand and natural gas prices plummeted as theCovid-19 crisis escalated, coal-fired power generation bore thebrunt of the impacts. Reduced industrial activity also hit coaldemand, although in a more limited way. In the early months of thecrisis, a double-digit annual decline in global coal demand lookedplausible. But economic recovery in China came sooner andstronger than initially expected, with year-on-year growth resuming
as early as in April. With economic recovery following elsewhere
and a cold snap in December in Northeast Asia, global coal demandfell by 4.4% in 2020 – the largest decline in many decades but lessthan initially expected. The regional disparities were large. Coal
demand grew by 1% in China in 2020 but dropped by nearly 20% in
the United States and the European Union – and by 8% in India andSouth Africa.

China continues to dominate global coal trends

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China’s influence on coal markets is difficult to overstate. China’s
power generation, including district heating, accounts for one-thirdof global coal consumption. China’s overall coal use is more thanhalf of the global total. Coal demand in China is underpinned by fast
growing electricity demand and the resilience of heavy industry.

Executive summary

Coal 2021

This is despite a decade of strong and sustained efforts to diversify
the country’s power mix – during which China has expanded hydro,
wind, solar and nuclear power capacity by more than any othercountry in the world – and intensive switching from coal to natural
gas in the residential heating and light industrial sectors. China isalso the world’s largest coal producer and importer, with domestic
price swings from supply-demand imbalances immediately
impacting international markets.

two-thirds of global coal consumption, despite their efforts toincrease renewables and other low-carbon energy sources. In
China, coal demand growth is expected to average less than 1%
per year between 2022 and 2024. In India, stronger economic
growth and increasing electrification are forecast to drive coaldemand growth of 4% per year. India’s growing appetite for coal isset to add 130 million tonnes (Mt) to coal demand between 2021
and 2024. For most industrial purposes where coal is used, such asiron and steel production, there are not many technologies that canreplace it in the short term. Based on current trends, global coaldemand is set to rise to 8 025 Mt in 2022, the highest level everseen, and to remain there through 2024.

Global coal demand may well hit a new all-time high inthe next two years
Beyond 2021, global coal consumption is set to revert to the patternseen over the previous decade: declines in advanced economies
offset by growth in some emerging and developing economies. After
its brief rebound in the United States and the European Union in
2021, coal demand will resume its decline through 2024. This ismostly driven by the power sector where slow electricity demand
growth and rapid expansion of wind and solar PV are eating into
coal power generation. In addition, a big part of the recent switchingfrom natural gas to coal will reverse as gas prices retreat from theirhighs. At the same time, countries such as Viet Nam, thePhilippines and Bangladesh, where very strong growth in coaldemand had been expected a few years ago, are now set to show
more modest increases as they shift more towards sources ofelectricity that are less carbon intensive. However, global coaltrends will be shaped largely by China and India, who account for

Coal production failed to keep pace with rebounding coal demand in
2021, especially during the first half of the year, cutting into stocklevels and pushing up prices. In China and India, where coalshortages led to power outages and idled factories, domestic
policies to ramp up production and reduce coal shortages weresoon implemented, facilitated by the large presence of state-owned
companies in production. The main coal exporting countries wereprevented from fully taking advantage of high prices by supply chain
disruptions, such as flooding in Indonesian mines. Years of lower
investment due to financing and bureaucratic restrictions also
played a role. Outside China, most of the additional production in
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Coal production is set to rise to its highest ever levels in
2022

Executive summary

Coal 2021

Momentum behind net zero has grown, but the era of
declining emissions is moving further away

2021 came from existing mines or reopened mines that had been
idled during periods of low prices. Futures contracts for coal are
trading well below spot prices, which is not conducive to investment.
Coal production is forecast to reach an all-time high in 2022 andthen plateau as demand flattens.

Coal prices reached record highs in 2021
Under pressure from low demand and low natural gas prices, spottraded thermal coal prices had fallen to USD 50 per tonne in thesecond quarter of 2020, down by around 50% over an 18-month
period. They stayed around the same level through the third
quarter. Supply cutbacks then balanced the market before rebounds
in economic activity and coal demand in China started pushingprices up. In 2021, the price of coal was further lifted by demand
outstripping supply in China – the global coal price setter – as well
as by supply disruptions and higher natural gas prices globally.
Chinese coal demand rebounded by more than 10% in the first halfof 2021, but production did not keep pace in part because many
mines had closed in previous years amid government fears ofoversupply. Coal prices reached all-time highs in early October
2021, with imported thermal coal in Europe, for example, hitting
USD 298 per tonne. Quick policy intervention by the Chinese
government to balance the market had a rapid effect on prices. Asof mid-November, European prices were in the range of USD150
per tonne.

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The pledges to reach net zero emissions made by many countries,
including China and India, should have very strong implications forcoal – but these are not yet visible in our near-term forecast,reflecting the major gap between ambitions and action. Japan,
Korea and China have also committed to stop public funding forbuilding new coal power projects abroad, severely limiting thepossibilities for expanding coal-fired generation in many countries.
New commitments during COP26, such as the Global Coal to Clean
Power Transition Statement to accelerate the transition fromunabated coal power generation, put additional pressure on coal.
The coal power generation rebound in the United States andEurope in 2021 is a blip, and coal demand will resume its decline inboth regions. However, Asia dominates the global coal market, with
China accounting for more than half of global demand, or two-thirds
if India is added. These two economies – dependent on coal andwith a combined population of almost 3 billion people – hold the key
to future coal demand. The fate of coal depends on how quickly andeffectively countries move to implement their net zero commitments.
And the level of coal demand in a net zero carbon economy will
depend on how successful efforts are to deploy carbon capture,utilisation and storage (CCUS) technologies.

DemandCoal 2021

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DemandDemandCoal 2021

A strong rebound in 2021 and slow growth thereafter lead to highest ever global coal demandby 2024
The importance of China in the world coal market cannot be
overstated. In 2020, its share of global coal consumption rose
further to 53%. As China and India (12%) together account forroughly two-thirds of world coal use, global trends (and hence ourforecast) depend heavily on developments in China and, to a lesser
extent, India.

A 6% rebound is expected to raise coal consumption to 7 906 Mt in
2021, similar to the 2010 increase that followed the global financial
crisis. While Coal 2020 did forecast that coal demand would bounceback robustly in 2021, the rebound is turning out to be muchstronger for three reasons: first, the global economy recovered
more quickly than expected, with global GDP growth of ~5.8%, thehighest in almost half a century. Second, a cold winter and hotsummer boosted power demand while low rainfall and weak winds
in some regions decreased electricity supplies. Third, weather
conditions and some supply issues pushed gas prices to all-timehighs, raising demand for coal for power generation.

With the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, total coal consumption
declined 4.4% in 2020, to 7 456 Mt. Coal use for power production
dropped 4.2% due to lower electricity consumption (-0.5%) as wellas growth in renewable generation and low gas prices. Industrial
production was also depressed because of confinements and theeconomic slowdown, resulting in lower coal consumption in nonpower sectors (-5.4%).

The bulk of the increase in 2021 is from three countries: China,
India and the United States. In all three, coal use in power
generation increased significantly. China’s coal consumption is
expected to increase by 159 Mt (+4%), while demand rises 125 Mt(+13%) in India and 74 Mt (+17%) in the United States. Coal
consumption is also expected to recover in other regions, including
the European Union (+45 Mt) and Southeast Asia (+14 Mt).

The most substantial relative declines in coal use were in the UnitedStates (-18%/-96 Mt) and the European Union (-19%/‑93 Mt). Other
major coal-consuming countries experienced smaller but significant
decreases, for instance India (-8%/‑83 Mt), the Russian Federation(hereafter “Russia”) (-6%/-15 Mt) and South Africa (-8%/-15 Mt). In
increased slightly by 0.5% (+21 Mt).

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Although coal demand is anticipated to grow slower after the strong
recovery of 2021, it surpasses the record of 2013 in 2022 and rises
to an all-time high of 8 031 Mt in 2024. The increase is driven bycontrast, coal use in China, the world’s primary coal consumer,

DemandCoal 2021

China (+135 Mt), India (+129 Mt) and the countries of Southeast
Asia (+50 Mt). In all these regions, economic growth spurs higher
power demand, with coal as the central pillar of power generation.
However, increases in Asia will be offset by declines in the UnitedStates (-77 Mt) and the European Union (-102 Mt) by 2024.

In the longer-term perspective, very low global coal demand growththrough 2024 – after the 2020 drop and 2021 rebound – sustains
the past decade’s general trend towards plateauing consumption,
apart from annual fluctuations created by economic, market or
weather conditions.

The overall continued increase assumes that global GDP rises at acompound average annual growth rate (CAAGR) of 4% from 2022
to 2024. If the economy does not perform as expected, especially in
China, it will clearly affect coal consumption. Another critical
forecast assumption is gas price development, as coal and gas are
the main competitors in the electricity market to fill what is known as
the ‘’thermal gap’’ 1 (the difference between electricity demand andnuclear and renewable electricity generation).

1
Strictly speaking, nuclear, oil, biomass, waste and geothermal energy sources are also used forthermal power generation.

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This forecast is therefore based on market expectations expressed
through forward prices. As price futures for gas are relatively highuntil 2024, coal’s share in the energy supply mix will be moresignificant than what we expected in last year’s report. The level ofcoal-fired generation will also depend heavily on the size of thethermal gap, which is largely determined by the rate of renewableelectricity generation growth. This report reflects the results of thelatest Renewable Energy Market Report’s main case scenario.

DemandCoal 2021

Plateauing of coal consumption resumes
Changes in coal consumption by region, 2021-2024

9 000

Mt

8 200

8 000

8 100

7 000

8 000

6 000

7 900

5 000

7 800

4 000

7 700

3 000

7 600

2 000

7 500

1 000

7 400

0
2000

7 300
2008

2016

2024

8 031
56

7 906

129
102

7 801

77

17 135

7 456

2019 2020 2021

2024

China

India

Other Asia

European Union

United States

India

United States

European Union

Rest of world

China

Other Asia

Rest of world

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Mt

Global coal consumption by region, 2000-2024

DemandCoal 2021

Coal-fired power generation reaches all-time high in 2021
In 2020, the decline in worldwide electricity consumption (-0.5%)
and low natural gas prices caused coal-fired generation to drop

For 2022-2024, global power demand is expected to increase~2 099 TWh (annual average growth of 2.4%), of which a large
share (91%) will be covered by additional renewable electricity
generation. We expect a gap of more than 220 TWh to be filled bycoal- and gas-fired power generation. With forward prices pointing
to a gas price drop, we expect gas to meet most of the remaining
demand while coal-fired power generation stays stable over theperiod.

3.8% (‑380 TWh), which reduced consumption of both steam coal(-3.6% to 5 735 Mt) and lignite (-13% to 621 Mt).
Global electricity consumption is expected to rebound 6% in 2021,
exceeding the 2019 level, as economic recovery around the globe
and adverse weather conditions boost demand at the same time as
renewable power generation is lower than expected due to meagre
rainfall and weak wind in some regions. China’s electricity demand
growth for 2021 is estimated at 10%, reflecting the country’s strong
economic recovery as well as a cold snap in the north and awarmer-than-average summer.
Renewable energy and nuclear power generation are expected tomeet ~39% of the increase in electricity demand in 2021, while
residual growth of more than 800 TWh will be covered by coal andgas. A gas supply shortage and resulting record-high gas prices
support a rebound in coal-based power generation, especially in the
United States and the European Union, where shares of coal inpower generation have been declining for years. Consequently,
global coal-fired power generation is expected to increase 9% in
2021, recovering to above 2019 levels.

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As coal is the cornerstone of the electricity supplies of India, China
and some Southeast Asian countries, we estimate coal-fired power
generation during 2021-2024 to increase 4.1% in China, 11% inIndia and 12% in Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, a return to declining
trajectories is expected in the United States (-21%) and theEuropean Union (-30%).

DemandCoal 2021

As low-carbon sources meet most but not all additional power demand, gas and coal fill the gap

2 500

2 000

1 500

40
35
30
25

616
2 099

1 000

20

1 877

15

1 542
500

10

834

5
DemandRES andnuclear2020-2021

Power DemandGas
and coal

DemandRenewables, nuclear and others

RES andnuclear2021-2024

Coal

Gas and coal

Gas
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Note: RES = renewable energy source.

PAGE | 1402019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

TTF

Henry Hub

Asian Spot LNG
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0

Gas price markers, 2019-2024
USD/MBtu

TWh

Additional global power demand and generation by source, 2020-2024

DemandCoal 2021

After recovering, non-power coal consumption resumes weak growth
Changes in thermal coal consumption for non-power
purposes by region, 2019-2024

In addition to power generation, thermal coal is used for operations
such as cement production and industrial and household heatapplications. In 2020, non-power thermal coal consumption
decreased 5.4% to 1 368 Mt, mostly because of developments in
China and India. In China, which is by far the largest consumer ofthermal coal for non-power purposes, consumption declined 4.4%.
In India, the world’s second-largest consumer, consumption
plummeted 20%, severely impacted by the economic downturn
resulting from the pandemic.

Mt

100

China

75
50

India

25

Southeast Asia

0

Other Asia

- 25

European Union- 50

Rest of world- 75

Nevertheless, non-power thermal coal use is expected to increase
very slightly (+0.2%) to 1 370 Mt in 2021 as economies around theglobe recover. Replacing coal with other energy resources for nonpower applications takes longer than for electricity generation
because substitution in the non-power sector is more difficult. In
India, we expect a 12% rebound as the cement and other industries
recover from the recession. Further slight increases of 1.1% peryear are also forecast as industrial consumption continues toexpand, especially in India and Southeast Asia, for a total of 1 417
Mt in 2024. In contrast, non-power coal use in China is set tocontinue declining as the country sustains efforts to reduce coalconsumption for residential heating and small industries.

- 100

World
2019-2020

2020-2021

2021-2024
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Metallurgical (met) coal, which includes coking coal (hard, medium
and semi-soft) and coal for pulverised coal injection (PCI) is a
primary ingredient in steelmaking. Coke (produced by heating
coking coal in a coke oven in the absence of oxygen) is also used to
produce carbides, ferroalloys and other compounds. Accordingly,
steel production projections of organisations such as the World
Steel Association are a key basis for our met coal forecast.

DemandCoal 2021

In 2020, global met coal consumption declined 3% to 1 100 Mt as
steel production (outside of China) decreased, mainly due topandemic-related effects. China is by far the world’s largest met
coal consumer, accounting for 68% of the global total in 2020. Othersignificant met coal consumers were Russia (6%), the European
Union (5%) and India (5%). In contrast with most other countries,
met coal consumption in China increased slightly in 2020(+0.7%/+5 Mt). The largest decline was in India (-22%/-16 Mt).

developing economies continues as new blast furnaces areconstructed to meet rising steel demand.

Met coal consumption and annual changes by region,
2019-2021
60
40
20
0
- 20
- 40
- 60

Mt

Mt

1 200
1 000
800
600
400
200
0

We expect a slight increase of 0.5% in 2021, raising consumption to
1 106 Mt. As steel production recovers, met coal use increases inall major steel-producing regions, i.e. India (+17%/+9 Mt), theEuropean Union (+9%/+5 Mt), Russia (+2.4%/+2 Mt) and Japan(+10%/+4 Mt). While consumption in China remained high in thefirst half of 2021, steel production fell in the second half of the year,
directly affecting met coal demand and leading us to expect a
decline in consumption (-3.9%). Despite the overall recovery in steel
production, global met coal use remains below the 2019 level.

2019 2020
China
European Union

2021
India
Japan

2019-2020 2020-2021
RussiaKorea
IEA. All rights reserved.

Changes in metallurgical coal consumption by region,2021-2024
Mt

1 180
1 160

Nevertheless, as met coal remains a central element in steel
production, consumption is forecast to increase to 2024, rising at anannual average of 1.7% to 1 164 Mt. Output of electric arc furnaces
will depend on scrap availability, but our forecast assumes only asmall increase in the EAF/BOF production ratio through 2024,
based on historical trends. Alternative manufacturing processes
such as hydrogen direct reduction will be marginal by 2024. Whileconsumption in China flattens, growth in India (+14 Mt) and other

6

1 140

14

1 120
1 100
1 080

5

22

3

9

1 164

1 106

2021
China
European Union

India
Japan and Korea

2024
RussiaRest of world

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DemandCoal 2021

China’s coal consumption hits all-time high in 2021 and continues to rise through 2024
China’s total coal consumption amounted to 3 971 Mt in 2020, of
which 2 433 Mt (61%) was thermal coal for power generation.
Another 789 Mt of thermal coal was used in non-power applications,and the rest was met coal (749 Mt), used primarily in steelmaking.
Although the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak and resulting lockdowns
reduced coal demand in the first quarter of 2020, a strong reboundin economic activity caused overall consumption to increase 0.5% in
2020, making China, along with Viet Nam, one of the very few
countries in which coal use actually increased.

Thermal coal use in non-power applications (e.g. residential,commercial and small-scale industry) is expected to decrease
further as the continued phase out of small, inefficient coal boilers
adds to progress made in the last seven or so years. As domestic
steel demand is expected to stabilise, met coal consumption is notforecast to increase through 2024. Outside of power, the only sector
in which coal demand still grows is coal conversion.

Annual changes in coal consumption by grade and use in
China, 2020-2024
Mt

Thermal coal consumption surged in late 2020 and early 2021,
driven by revived industrial production and an unusually cold winter.
In 2021, strong economic growth, high summer cooling demand andlow hydropower generation further boosted coal consumption.
Despite the country’s coal shortage and corresponding implications
for industrial production and electricity demand, we still expect
China’s coal consumption to increase 4% to 4 130 Mt in 2021 –surpassing the record set in 2013.

250
200
150
100
50
0
- 50

- 100

China’s coal consumption to 2024 is forecast to increase slightly(1.1% per year on average), mainly to satisfy power sector needs,
to reach 4 266 Mt. Despite intensive nuclear and renewable energy
capacity expansions, China will still have to rely on coal and, to alesser extent, gas to keep pace with rising electricity demand.

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

Met coal

Steam coal (non-power)

Steam coal (power)

Change in coal consumption

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DemandCoal 2021

China’s severe thermal coal shortages are impacting the electricity system
Power generation in China alone is responsible for almost one-thirdof global coal consumption. No other sector in any other country –or any other fuel – has a comparable influence on global trends.

as by weather conditions. The cold spell that spanned late 2020early 2021 put extra pressure on coal plants. In the summer, aheatwave intensified cooling demand at the same time as low
rainfall amounts reduced hydropower generation.

In 2020, the amount of coal China consumed for power generation
increased 2.2% to 2 433 Mt. Although consumption at the beginningof the year declined when measures to contain the Covid-19
outbreak were imposed, quick economic recovery, supported bydomestic stimulus and high industrial output to compensate for
production losses elsewhere significantly boosted electricity
demand for the year. An unusually cold winter further increased
electricity and heat demand.

In the third quarter of 2021, an imbalance between coal supply anddemand became apparent when coal producers were unable tokeep up with surging demand (see also the Supply chapter). The
shortage’s effects were exacerbated by China’s rigid electricity tariff
system. Because Chinese electricity prices are regulated, they do
not follow coal prices. Therefore, as coal prices rose and electricity
prices remained rigid (they could oscillate only 10% from thebenchmark price, although this was reformed in October to allow ahigher range), coal-fired power producers had no incentive tosecure sufficient coal.

A large share of China’s coal-fired power capacity is co-generation(combined heat and power production), an essential factor in the
country’s heat supply. 2 Therefore, as demand spiked to meethigher-than-usual heating needs in December 2020, China wasconfronted with power shortages due to inadequate capacity in atleast five regions.
Chinese coal consumption for power generation is set to increase
drastically in 2021. On the demand side, it is driven by continued
strong industrial growth, especially in the first half of 2021, as well2This report accounts for coal used in co-generation plants (for combined heat and power
generation) under consumption for power generation.

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In mid-2021, China began to curtail industrial activity in someprovinces as coal supplies and imports were unable to keep up withdemand. In September, power rationing for industrial consumers
occurred in 20 provinces. In Guangdong province, for example,
manufacturers of ceramic products experienced power cuts of up to
70%, and Yunnan province ordered cement producers to cut
production by 80%. Similar measures – and even complete power

DemandCoal 2021

cuts – affected aluminium, steel and other energy-intensive
industries all over China. In Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning, evenresidential consumers were affected as power supplies fell short ofdemand by as much as 20% at times.

Cold snaps and heat waves increase electricity demand, andhence, coal demand – as in China coal-fired generation is largely
the marginal supplier of electricity. Moreover, with the expansion ofrenewable energy capacity, weather conditions increasingly affectelectricity supplies; in particular rainfall and wind conditions canvary significantly from one year to the following. The impact ofweather variability on China’s coal use in power generation can besignificant and makes it hard to predict.

Coal prices increased rapidly, which also put pressure on coaldemand. The Chinese government reacted quickly, however, andthe coal shortage was over by November owing to higher
production and lower demand from energy-intensive industries, as
their output plummeted in the last quarter of 2021. Nevertheless, we
expect coal consumption for power generation to increase ~9%(+227 Mt) in 2021 despite the supply shortage.

TWh

Additional power generation and demand in China, 2019-2024
3 000
2 000

We also forecast that Chinese power demand will continue rising by~3.9% annually. Although China is expanding its renewable energy
capacity, growth of 9.5% per year on average from 2021 to 2024 is
not likely to be sufficient to meet additional demand. China is also
increasing its net coal-fired generation capacity at a pace of~30 GW per year. Between 2021 and 2024, China’s coal-based
power generation is forecast to increase 1.4% annually, and coalconsumption by just slightly less owing to higher plant efficiency.

1 000
0
2019
2020
2021
Renewables
Coal and coal products

2022
2023
2024
Nuclear, gas, oil, other
DemandPAGE | 19

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DemandCoal 2021

A deeper look at China’s coal shortage and its implications
Coal still represents more than half of China’s primary energy
supply. In addition to being pivotal for the power sector, it supports
the country’s wider economic activities. The Chinese economy
started 2021 at full steam and industrial production was pushed to
new heights. For the first half of the year, we estimate a ~15% yearon-year increase in coal-based power generation and rises of 17%
for steelmaking and 11% for cement production, for an estimatedcoal consumption growth of 11%.

their quarterly targets. It is not clear what role air pollution and theslowdown of the real estate sector played on the fall of industrial
production.
High coal prices and shortages, power shortages and the dualcontrol policy therefore led to curtailed production of some energyintensive products. Thermal power generation remained above
2019 levels, but China’s steel and cement production declined
considerably. In September 2021, cement production was 13%
below the 2019 level and steel production was 21% lower.

In the third quarter, however, economic activity decelerated. On topof high prices and shortfalls for coal (and associated power
shortages), the targets of the “dual-control” policy 3 affectedindustrial production. By halfway through the year, ten provinces –accounting for around 40% of China’s GDP – had reached the “red”
warning level for either energy intensity or energy consumption. The
red level is a first-level warning when implementation is more than
10% off the target. The yellow level indicates that implementation is
below the target, but lower than 10%. Towards the end of the third
quarter (end September), some provincial governments were forced
to mandate power cuts to energy-intensive industries to achieve

3
Binding targets for energy consumption and energy intensity, i.e. energy consumption per unit of
GDP for all of China’s states, provinces and municipalities, are controlled on a quarterly basis.

PAGE | 20

IEA. All rights reserved.

Since coal shortages threaten to reduce annual GDP growth, theChinese government has lifted coal import limits and modified
electricity tariffs, and Chinese utilities have announced that they will
buy coal “at any cost”. (Please see the Supply chapter for a
discussion of supply-side measures.)DemandCoal 2021

Share of GDP and electricity consumption affected by China’s
dual-control policy, H1 2021

Year-on-year percentage changes for various economic
indicators in China, 2020-2021 (compared with same period
in 2019)

100%

20%

80%

10%
0%

60%

-10%

40%

-20%

20%
Electricity
consumption

Energy intensity
Red warning level

GDP

Electricity
consumption

Energy consumption

Yellow warning level

Thermal generation

Green warning level
IEA. All rights reserved.

Steel production

Cement production
IEA. All rights reserved.

Note: Because of 2020’s exceptional industrial activity fluctuations, this chart illustrates
percentage changes as month-by-month comparisons with 2019. Monthly values forcoal-fired power generation are not available.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (2021), Statistical Database.

PAGE | 21

IEA. All rights reserved.

GDP

Jan-Feb 20
Mar 20
Apr 20
May 20June 2
Jul 20Aug 20
Sep 20
Oct 20
Nov 20Dec 20Jan-Feb 21
Mar 21
Apr 21
May 21
Jun 21
Jul 21Aug 21
Sep 21
Oct 210%-30%

DemandCoal 2021

Thermal coal consumption for non-power applications in China
amounted to 789 Mt in 2020, comparable with the combined total
consumption of the European Union and the United States.

commitment, combined with the shift to gas in some industries,
indicates that coal consumption in this sector will fall by ~100 Mt –almost one-third of 2020 consumption.

Around half of China’s non-power thermal coal consumption is inenergy-intensive industries, with cement production accounting forroughly 50%. We expect some coal substitution in cement andbuilding material production to continue, but the process is slow.
Overall, coal consumption in energy-intensive industries is forecast
to remain stable until 2024, despite the effect of current shortages
on processes such as aluminium, fertiliser and silicon production,
which use coal and coal products, and the government’s
unequivocal aim to reduce the energy intensity of China’s economy.

The direction of the coal conversion sector has been unclear for the
past decade, despite its role in assuring energy security andreducing oil and gas imports. The potential to extract value fromcoal that would otherwise be stranded – either for quality or location
reasons – and to use it as a hedge against oil and gas priceincreases is also relevant. At the same time, however, coalconversion’s environmental footprint in terms of water consumption
and CO2 emissions is huge, especially in the absence of CCUS. In
its 14th Five-Year-Plan, China foresees the continued developmentof the coal conversion sector. In fact, it aims a production capacity
by 2025 of 15 bcm of gas, 12 Mt of oil products, 15 Mt of olefins, 8
Mt of ethylene glycol plus some ethanol and aromatics produced
from coal. Although current gas prices should encourage projects togo forward, it is difficult to predict how the supporting drivers,
constraining factors and potential risks will play out in upcoming
years. Whether goals will be achieved, and planned projects
implemented, is therefore quite uncertain. With this in mind, we
forecast a moderate (just over 20 Mt) increase in coal consumption
for conversion processes between 2020 and 2024.

We estimate that 37% of non-power thermal coal use was forresidential heating and non-energy-intensive industries in 2020.
This share is declining, however, thanks to sustained efforts to
reduce air pollution by replacing small, inefficient coal boilers withgas and electric options. Although considerable progress has been
made, the shift from coal will continue as it is far from completed.
Whereas gas coverage in coastal regions is extensive, otherregions lag far behind. In 2019, access to gas was very low in thenorthern provinces of Heilongjiang (5%), Jilin (5.5%) and Liaoning(16%). In February 2021, the Chinese government vowed topromote the construction of gas networks in rural areas. This
PAGE | 22

IEA. All rights reserved.

China’s non-power thermal coal demand continues its decline

DemandCoal 2021

India’s coal demand rebounds in 2021 but supply shortages hamper growth
India consumed 931 Mt of coal in 2020, the largest share of which
was thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation(705 Mt), followed by thermal coal for non-power applications(170 Mt). The remainder was metallurgical coal used mainly in steel
production. Coal consumption fell 8% across all end uses from2019, a result of the pandemic lockdowns. Coal-fired power
generation dropped 3.5% in 2020.

growth in industrial activity has been subdued in the second half of2021. As most domestic coal is earmarked for power generation
and as international coal prices are high, cement and sponge ironproduction are being curtailed due to coal supply restrictions.

Year-on-year changes in selected economic indicators for
India, 2020-2021 (compared with same period in 2019)
40%
20%
0%
-20%
-40%
-60%
-80%
-100%
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21
Power generation
Cement production
Sponge iron production
Pig iron production

Despite a minor Q2 slump in growth due to lockdowns during India’s
second wave of Covid-19, the country’s coal consumption is
expected to rise sharply to 1 056 Mt in 2021, exceeding the 2019pre-pandemic level.
Power demand in India rose sharply in 2021. Utility power
generation, 4 which accounts for more than 85% of total power
generation, was up 13% from January to August 2021, comparedwith the same months in 2020, and was 5% higher than in 2019.
Despite the continuous push for renewables, we expect coal-based
generation to make up 74% of the power mix in 2021, up from 72%
in 2020. New electricity connections for 28.2 million households andreopening of the economy after India’s second Covid-19 wave are
the main factors behind this increase.

IEA. All rights reserved.
Notes: Because of 2020’s exceptional industrial activity fluctuations, this chart
illustrates percentage changes as month-by-month comparisons with 2019. Data for
pig iron production in India is based on hot metal production for steelmaking.
Sources: Office of the Economic Adviser (2021), Eight Core Industries; Joint Plant
Committee of Ministry of Steel (2021), Steel Production.

4

Data for captive plants, accounting for ~15% of power production, are not yet available.
PAGE | 23

IEA. All rights reserved.

Production of large coal-consuming industries, such as cement,
sponge iron and pig iron, rebounded from the drops of 2020, thoughDemandCoal 2021

With robust economic growth on the horizon, India’s coal demand is set to rise through 2024
Continued expansion of India’s economy is expected during2022-2024, with annual average GDP growth of 7.4%, fuelled atleast partially by coal. We forecast coal consumption to increase at
an average annual rate of 3.9%, to reach 1 185 Mt in 2024.

commissioned by 2023, will have a coal capacity of 3.3 Mt,
producing 2 200 t/d of ammonia and 3 850 t/d of urea. The
government also plans to implement a Methanol Economy
programme with five methanol plants based on high-ash coal.

Annual coal consumption changes in India by type and use,
2020-2024
Mt

As more households get connected to the grid and incomescontinue to rise, higher sales of household electrical appliances(and electric vehicles in the near future) will lead to a steadyincrease in electricity demand. Power demand is also expected to
grow in industries such as aluminium, as well as steel and cement
production to meet the needs of construction and infrastructure
projects.

150
100
50

Historically, steel production based on direct reduced iron(commonly known as sponge iron) has been very popular in India.
For this reason, less than half of India’s steelmaking capacity relieson the blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace (BF-BOF) method,
contrary to the global average of about 70%. But by fiscal year
2022, the BF-BOF route is expected to be 65% of India’s
steelmaking capacity, with significant implications for met coaldemand and imports in India’s steel sector.

0
- 50
- 100

2020

Met coal

Additionally, the government plans to invest USD 55 billion in coalgasification and liquefaction, targeting 100 Mt of capacity by 2030.
India’s first coal gasification-based fertiliser plant at Talcher, to be

2021

2022

Steam coal (non-power)

2023

2024

Steam coal (power)

PAGE | 24

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IEA. All rights reserved.

DemandCoal 2021

US coal demand recovery in 2021 is only a temporary respite from vanishing coal use
if climate policies are strengthened or gas prices are lower thanassumed.

The share of coal in power generation in the United States has
been decreasing for the past decade, pushed out of the electricity
market by inexpensive gas, renewable energy expansion andplateauing power demand. Between 2011 and 2020, 88.7 GW ofcoal-fired capacity was retired or converted to natural gas – acapacity decline of almost one-third – and no new coal-fired
capacity has come online since 2013. In just one decade, US coalconsumption halved from 885 Mt in 2010 to 434 Mt in 2020, 93% of
which had been used in power generation. In 2020 alone, coal use
fell 18% from the previous year, with the effects of the Covid‑19
pandemic accelerating the pre-existing structural decline.
In the first three quarters of 2021, coal consumption in electricity
generation rebounded ~22% from the same period in 2020. As
electricity demand recovers and gas prices are the highest they
have been for a decade, we expect a 21% y-o-y increase in thermal
coal consumption for power generation for the whole year. This
would be the first increase in coal-fired electricity generation since
2014.

1 050

300

900

250

750

200

600

150

450

100

300

50

150

0

0

Mt

350

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024

GW

US coal-fired generation capacity and coal consumption,
2010-2024

History
Forecast
Coal-fired generating capacity (left axis)
Coal consumption (right axis)
IEA. All rights reserved.

Despite the temporary surge in 2021, we expect the decline in coalfired power plant capacities continue to decline until 2024, leading
to a steady drop in thermal coal consumption. We therefore expect
US coal consumption of 431 Mt in 2024, a decline of 15% from2021, and similar to the 2020 level. The drop could be even greater

Notes: Capacity values for 2021 and 2022 are based on EIA forecast; capacity values
for 2023 and 2024 are forecast by the IEA.

PAGE | 25

IEA. All rights reserved.

Sources: EIA (2021), Annual U.S. Coal-Fired Electricity Generation will Increase for
the First Time Since 2014; EIA (2021), Coal Data.

DemandCoal 2021

The EU coal rebound in power generation will be short-lived, while declines of varying degrees
are expected in other regions
In the European Union (EU), declining electricity demand andhistorically low gas prices led thermal coal consumption to drop
85 Mt (-20%) to 340 Mt in 2020. In the summer of 2020, the variable
costs of European gas-fired power plants were even lower than forGermany’s lignite-fired plants. 5 In the third quarter, however, gas
prices rose and gas-fired power plants moved back in the meritorder to follow lignite-fired and efficient coal-fired power plants,
despite higher European Union Allowance (EUA) prices.

phaseout plans. In Germany, for example, 2.9 GW of lignite-fired
and 6.7 GW of hard coal-fired capacity are scheduled to be
decommissioned by 2024.
Nevertheless, coal-fired capacity will become more important inGermany as all the country’s remaining nuclear power plants areclosed by December 2022. Poland, where a strong coal rebound in
2021 is expected after the 2020 drop, will return to a slow andsteady decline from 2022. In the European Union overall, thermal
coal consumption is expected to fall from 380 Mt in 2021 to 274 Mt
in 2024.

Global gas markets became tight in 2021 and gas prices jumped tohistorical highs. In consequence, coal-based power generation in
the European Union is rebounding in 2021, even though coal and
EUA prices have roughly doubled since the beginning of the year.
Gas and coal prices are expected to decline in 2022, making it
difficult for inefficient coal-fired power plants to compete with gas. In
the medium term, therefore, falling gas prices and high EUA rates
will place gas-fired power plants ahead of coal-fired ones.
In 2024, even the variable costs of lignite-fired power plants are
expected to be higher than those of gas-fired units. Plus, coal-fired
capacity will decrease as European countries implement their coal5
In some cases, such as co-generation plants, additional revenue streams have to be consideredwhen assessing the profitability of generation units.

PAGE | 26

IEA. All rights reserved.

In Japan, coal-fired power generation decreased 5% in 2020, a
slower decline than in the European Union, partly because of the
low availability of nuclear power plants. Also, Japanese utilities
were not able to benefit fully from low spot gas prices due to thecountry’s high share of oil-indexed pricing. At the same time,
though, this means that Japan’s gas-fired power plants have beenless affected than plants in other countries by the gas price hikes of2021, although Japan still does contract a high share of its coal on
one-year terms at fixed prices.

DemandCoal 2021

record-high spot prices. Coal-fired generation is likely to remain ataround the 2021 level until 2024, subject to policy changes.

Even though Japan plans to close all its inefficient subcritical andsupercritical coal-fired power plants by 2030, the impact in 2024 will
be inconsequential. Furthermore, with forward gas prices indicatingthat coal will remain competitive with gas in power generation, coalfired generation is expected to decline only slightly.

Coal demand in both Turkey and Australia is expected to contract
slowly as growth in renewable energy output outpaces electricity
demand, shrinking the thermal gap normally filled by coal and gas.

In Korea, as nuclear power was readily available in 2020, coal-fired
power generation fell a substantial 8% compared with 2019. For
2021, we expect it to decline even further (-2.6%) while gas-based
electricity generation increases. As in the case of Japan, gas isprocured through long-term contracts, exposing Korea less to

In Australia, more than 2 GW of coal-fired power plants are to beclosed by 2024.

USD/MWh

EUR/t

225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24
Coal (left axis)
CCGT (left axis)
Gas JCC-indexed (left axis)
Coal (right axis)

225
200
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0

IEA. All rights reserved.

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: TTF = Title Transfer Facility. EUA = European Union Allowance. CCGT = combined-cycle gas turbine. API = Argus/McCloskey’s Coal Price Index. JCC = Japan Crude Cocktail.
CCGT net efficiency: 49-58%. Coal net efficiency: 35-46%. Lignite net efficiency: 39%.
PAGE | 27

IEA. All rights reserved.

EUR/MWh

225
225
200
200
175
175
150
150
125
125
100
100
75
75
50
50
25
25
0
0
Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24
Coal (left axis)
CCGT (left axis)
TTF (gas) (left axis)
API2 (coal) (right axis)
EUA (right axis)
German lignite (left axis)

USD/tJapan’s marginal coal- and gas (JCC-linked)-fired power
generation costs, 2019-2024

EU marginal coal- and gas-fired power generation costs,
2019-2024

DemandCoal 2021

Southeast Asia’s coal consumption continues to grow although expectations have moderated
these power plants could, however, become difficult. After Japanand Korea decided to stop financing new coal-fired plants abroad, in
September 2021 China’s president also announced that China will
no longer build new coal power projects in other countries. In
addition, the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement wasrecently released during COP26. Nevertheless, the effects of allthese decisions will be felt in the longer term and will hardly affectcoal consumption through 2024.

Overall coal use in Southeast Asian countries totalled 357 Mt in
2020, roughly the same as in 2019, as consumption in the region
proved resilient to the global pandemic and economic crisis. The
two largest coal consumers are Indonesia (40%) and Viet Nam(25%), with Viet Nam’s consumption even increasing (+4.5%). In
fact, Viet Nam and China are the only high-consuming countries toregister increases in 2020.
Furthermore, we expect coal consumption in the region to increase
another 3.8% in 2021. Thereafter, an annual growth rate of ~4.3%
is forecast, based on Southeast Asia’s strong economic outlook,some new coal power projects (especially in Viet Nam andIndonesia) and Indonesia’s inexpensive coal supplies, bringing
consumption to 420 Mt in 2024.

Both Malaysia and the Philippines have declared they will shift awayfrom coal use. While in October 2020 the Philippines announced a
moratorium on approvals of new greenfield coal power projects, in
2021 Malaysia committed to stop building new coal power plants.

Southeast Asian changes in coal consumption by country,
2019-2024

Indonesia and Viet Nam plan to construct additional coal-fired
power plants. PLN, Indonesia’s state-owned electricity utility,
expects an additional 14-16 GW of coal-based generation capacity
to be online by 2030. The company also announced it will stopplanning new coal power plants after 2023, which should notinterfere with the completion of units already under construction or
having achieved financial closure.

Mt

250
0

2020

Indonesia
Philippines

Although Viet Nam had severely downsized its coal development
plans, it has since increased its 2030 target for coal-fired generation
capacity from 37.3 GW to 40.7 GW. Funding and construction of

50
40
30
20
10
0
- 10

Mt

500

2021

2024
Viet Nam
Thailand2019-20 2020-21 2021-24
Malaysia
Other Southeast Asia

PAGE | 28

IEA. All rights reserved.

IEA. All rights reserved.

DemandCoal 2021

Pakistan and Bangladesh face the same challenges as otheremerging countries in Asia and elsewhere. As their economies
grow, so does their demand for energy – especially electricity. While
the two countries rely at least in part on coal to meet their risingenergy needs, they have both recently downsized their coaldevelopment plans. Including Sri Lanka, the region has a populationof more than 400 million.

At the same time, the Pakistani government has also declared it will
go ahead with plans to turn Thar lignite into liquid fuels andfertilisers, but in 2024 (the limit of our forecast period) no plants will
yet be operational. We therefore expect coal consumption in
Pakistan to be ~67% higher in 2024 than in 2021, rising to 42 Mt
with most of the increase stemming from new power plants fuelledby domestic lignite.

In 2020, coal consumption rose to 23 Mt in Pakistan (+5% from2019) and 14 Mt in Bangladesh (+37%). The steep rise in
Bangladesh resulted from the first unit of two 660-MW USC blocks
at Payra power station starting operations. This is Bangladesh’s
second power plant, but the first one to depend on imported coal.
We therefore expect growth in coal use to continue in 2021 andthrough 2024.

In Bangladesh, most of the 30 projects announced in recent years
have been cancelled. Nevertheless, around 5 GW of coal projects
are under construction, all of them based on imported coal. We
assume these plants will be completed, while the few others in thepipeline will probably be cancelled. In July 2021, ten coal-fired
power plants with an aggregated capacity of 8.4 GW were cancelled
and replaced with LNG- and imported hydro-based generation.

Pakistan has 5 GW of coal-based power capacity underconstruction, adding to the 5 GW built in recent years. While recent
additions were based on imported coal, plants under construction
now will be fuelled mostly by domestic lignite from Thar (Sindh
province). Although Pakistan’s prime minister announced in
December 2020 that the country will have “no new coal-fired
power”, we do not expect this announcement to affect projects
under construction, which will be the last coal-fired plants to be built
in Pakistan.

Although Bangladesh’s coal projects are advancing slowly, we do
expect some capacity additions in upcoming years, most likely the
1 320-MW Rampal and 1 200-MW Matarbari projects. Coal
consumption is therefore forecast to rise ~65% by 2024 as newcoal-fired power plants come into operation.
In Sri Lanka, with cancellation of the Sampur project, Lakvijaya willbe the only coal-fuelled power plant, so we expect demand toremain stable through 2024.
PAGE | 29

IEA. All rights reserved.

Southern Asia’s coal demand continues to rise

DemandCoal 2021

Developments in Africa do not indicate major coal consumption changes through 2024
The total coal consumption of African countries decreased by 22 Mt(-10%) to 198 Mt in 2020. Although we expect consumption to risesteadily to 212 Mt by 2024, this is still below pre-pandemic levels.

a 244-MWh battery system at its 1 000-MW Komati coal power
plant. The Grootvlei, Hendrina and Camden power plants, which arescheduled for closure in 2025, are also to be converted torenewable energy. As these measures will have a limited impact inthe short term, South African coal consumption is expected to be
2.7% higher in 2024 than in 2021 but remain below the 2019 level.
Sasol, the country’s second-largest coal consumer behind Eskom,aims to reduce the carbon footprint of its Secunda chemicalcomplex by switching from coal to less-carbon-intensive fuels, but
we do not expect this to occur before 2024. In other developments,
the environmental impact assessment of Musina-Makhado Special
Economic Zone, which includes a 3-GW coal-fired plant and various
industries, was issued in September 2021. While this complex could
boost coal consumption, it is not likely to be online before 2024.

As South Africa accounts for around 90% of coal consumed in
Africa, the 2020 decline can be attributed largely to a drop in
demand there. For 2021, South Africa’s coal consumption is
expected to increase 4.3% to 183 Mt, only partially recovering from
an 8% decline in 2020. As the country’s economy is still sufferingfrom the Covid-19 pandemic, South Africa’s GDP is expected toincrease only 4.8% this year, after a decrease of 6% last year.
Despite measures taken to increase the reliability of its electricity
system, South Africa experienced load-shedding about 15% of thetime in the first half of 2021, as its coal-fired fleet was only 61%
available, compared with 65% in 2020 and 70% in 2019. To
increase security of supply and financial stability to the state-owned
utility Eskom, the utility is to be restructured and new regulations willremove barriers to private investment in power generation.
South Africa’s government has secured US, UK, German, French
and EU financial support of USD 8.5 billion over the next five years
to reduce the country’s dependency on coal. Eskom announced that
it will shut down 8-12 GW of coal-fired power plants (roughly 30% of
its current fleet) by 2030. The company also declared in August2021 that it will install a 100-MW solar photovoltaic plant, including
PAGE | 30

IEA. All rights reserved.

In addition, African countries are also being affected by China’s
pledge to stop funding coal-based power plants abroad. Zimbabwe
is probably the most concerned, as it has 990 MW of coal-fired
plants under construction and plans for around 4.5 GW of additional
capacity, with Chinese institutions being the main source of capital.
With the prospect of China pulling its funding, however, the future ofthese projects is uncertain. Botswana, Tanzania and Mozambique
have also been counting on Chinese financing to increase theircoal-fired power generation capacity.

DemandCoal 2021

PAGE | 31

IEA. All rights reserved.

Are we on track for net zero
emissions by 2050?

DemandCoal 2021

Global coal consumption is not on the Net Zero trajectory and is unlikely to be before 2024
In the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2021 published in October, theNet Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario models a rapid plunge infossil fuel consumption. Demand for coal in particular is shown todrop sharply (-21%) by 2025 and continue to decline thereafter.
Some recent developments seem to point to that direction. Japanand Korea pledged to stop financing coal power plants abroad. In
September, China’s President also announced the end of new coal
power projects abroad. During COP26, 45 countries, some of them
big coal consumers, have signed the Global Coal to Clean Power
Transition Statement.

However, with supplies being limited in the second half of 2021,
consumption would have been even higher if weather conditions,
Covid-19 containment measures and low investment in mining inrecent years had not constrained coal production.
Furthermore, we do not expect (unabated) coal consumption andproduction to be on the Net Zero by 2050 pathway by 2024.
Although global investment in renewable energy will be strong in themedium and long term, coal supplies are expected to expand until
2024. China and India especially plan to invest in their domestic
mining capacity to raise the security of their energy supply, while
Indonesia and Russia will invest in new export capacity to boost
their economic growth in light of coal demand expectations.

But data point to a different direction. Global coal consumption did
contract in 2020 as the Covid-19 pandemic impeded economic
activity, but it has rebounded in 2021 and even surpassed the 2019
level. This increase resulted from robust global economic recovery,
adverse weather conditions and high gas prices. The global
economy has grown strongly this year, and particularly China's,
which produces and consumes over half of the world’s coal.
Global coal consumption is rising for both industrial use and power
generation, and is rising in most of the big coal-consuming regions,such as China, India, the United States and the European Union.
The growth of global coal consumption expected in 2021 put theworld further from the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 trajectory.
PAGE | 32

IEA. All rights reserved.

In short, all evidence indicates a widening gap between politicalambitions and targets on one side and the realities of the current
energy system on the other. This disconnect has two clear
implications: climate targets are getting further out of reach, andenergy security is at risk because, while investments in fossil fuels
are shrinking, funding for clean energy and technologies is not
expanding quickly enough. This should be concerning not only forpolicymakers and industry, but all stakeholders.

DemandCoal 2021

CO2 emissions from coal in 2024 are expected to be well over 3 Gt higher than in the Net Zero
Emissions by 2050 Scenario
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2019

2020
Historical

2021

2022

Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario

2023

2024
Coal 2021
IEA All rights reserved.

PAGE | 33

IEA. All rights reserved.

EJ

Coal consumption in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario and the Coal 2021 forecast, 2019-2024

Supply

Coal 2021

PAGE | 34

IEA. All rights reserved.

SupplySupply

Coal 2021

Responding to rising demand, global coal production continues to increase to 2024
Worldwide coal production declined 4.8% to 7 560 Mt in 2020. The(+57 Mt), Russia (+16) and Pakistan (+12 Mt), while production
diminishes in the United States (-44 Mt) and the European Union(-82 Mt).

United States (-24%/‑ 156 Mt) and the European Union (-19%/72 Mt) led the drop in production as their domestic demand
plummeted. Thermal coal and lignite made up ~86% of thisproduction and the remainder was metallurgical (met) coal. China –the world largest coal producer – accounted for about 50% of global
coal production in 2020.

Mt

Regional and global coal production changes, 2019-2024
400
300

11%

200

In 2021, the global coal supply is set to expand 4.5% to 7 889 Mt(just below the 2019 pre-pandemic level) following the global
rebound in demand. However, production increases in 2021 were
hampered by, among other things, adverse weather conditions,
supply chain disruptions and Covid-19 containment measures. With
demand increasing more quickly than production, stocks built up in2020 were depleted in 2021.

100
0
- 100

Mt

- 200
- 300
- 400

1 400
200
000
800
600
400
200
0

201
9

5%
3%
Global coal
6%
production,
2024
6%(8 014 Mt)
7%

50%

12%

- 500

2019- 2020- 20212020 2021 2024
China
India
Australia
United States
RussiaRest of world

In response to coal supply shortages, large coal-producing
countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Russia are expected
to boost efforts to expand their output. We therefore anticipate theglobal coal supply to be ~125 Mt greater in 2024, totalling 8 014 Mt.
In our forecast, all-time-high production of 8 111 Mt will occur in
2022. The biggest increases are expected in India (+163 Mt), China

Indonesia
European Union

PAGE | 35

IEA. All rights reserved.

IEA. All rights reserved.

Supply

Coal 2021

China’s 2020 coal production recovered quickly from early-year setbacks to reach a new highUnder China’s 13th Five-Year Plan (2015-2020), about 5 500 coalmines with a total production capacity of ~1 000 Mtpa were closed,
reducing the total number of mines to 4 700. New modern, largescale opencast and underground mines are being approved toreplace this capacity, mostly in the main coal mining regions ofInner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Xinjiang.

(+2%), Shaanxi (+5%) and Xinjiang (+22%). Thermal coalproduction in other regions fell 5%, mainly due to declining
exploitation by small mines.
Met coal production rose 4% to 675 Mt in 2020, with more than halfof this production in Shanxi. Other important met coal mining
regions are Shandong and Anhui in the east, Henan and Guizhou in
the south, and Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang in the north. Met
coal production in Shanxi alone increased 11% in 2020, mainly fromlarge and medium-sized mines, while it dropped in most other partsof the country. As with thermal coal, this reflects the continuing shift
from small, decentralised mines to large-scale ones in the main coalmining regions.

In 2020, coal production increased 1.1% to a new high of 3 764 Mt,
surpassing the previous record set in 2013. Although the Covid-19
pandemic disrupted China’s coal production in the first quarter of2020 (despite a production capacity expansion), it has been
climbing since the second quarter. Higher production was promptedby sharply rising domestic demand to support strong economic
expansion; the government’s tightening of import restrictions toprotect and assist domestic coal producers; and the ban onAustralian coal resulting from political discord.

6
Although China also produces anthracite and lignite, available data do not report these categories
separately.

PAGE | 36

IEA. All rights reserved.

Thermal coal made up ~85% of Chinese coal production in 2020,
the rest being met coal. 6 About 80% of China’s thermal coal ismined in just four coal mining regions: Inner Mongolia (30%),
Shanxi (22%), Shaanxi (21%) and Xinjiang (6%). Inner Mongolia
was the only large coal mining region in which thermal coalproduction decreased (-3%) in 2020, while it expanded in Shanxi

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Coal 2021

China’s coal production continues to be concentrated in four regions
Year-on-year change in metallurgical coal production in
China’s major met coal-producing regions by mine size,
2019-2020

75

Mt

50

50

40

25

30

0

20

- 25

10

- 50

0

- 75

- 10

Inner
Mongolia

Shanxi

Large (>6.9 Mtpa)

Shaanxi

Xinjiang

Medium (2.3-6.9 Mtpa)

OthersSmall (<2.3 Mtpa)

Shanxi

Large (>6.9 Mtpa)

IEA. All rights reserved.

South

East

North

Medium (2.3-6.9 Mtpa)

OthersSmall (<2.3 Mtpa)
IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: Adapted from CRU (2021), Thermal Cost Model (database).

Source: Adapted from CRU (2021), Metallurgical Cost Model (database).

PAGE | 37

IEA. All rights reserved.

Mt

Year-on-year change in thermal coal production in China’s
major thermal coal-producing regions by mine size,
2019-2020

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Coal 2021

China’s supply failed to catch up with demand for most of 2021, leading to an energy shortage
For 2021, we expect China’s coal production to rise 4.3% to
3 925 Mt. In the first three quarters of 2021, coal output increased inInner Mongolia (+3%), Shanxi (+14%), Shaanxi (+4%) and Xinjiang(+11%) while it decreased in other smaller coal mining regions. The
share of the four primary coal mining regions in China’s total
production rose to ~80% in 2021.

To ease the supply shortage, the Chinese government has asked
regional authorities and coal mining companies to boost coalproduction. At the same time, the National Development andReform Commission (NDRC) has called on major producers to cap
prices on a voluntary basis (rail availability will be limited for
producers pricing above the cap).

Nevertheless, coal production has not been keeping pace withrising domestic demand. Starting in 2020, Inner Mongolia’s coalsupply growth was hampered by an anti-corruption probe thatstrengthened control of mine production for approved capacities.
Safety and environmental regulations also became stricter
throughout the country and punishments for failing to comply withsafety guidelines were increased. These factors, together withnatural disasters such as floods, disrupted China’s coal production
and logistics in 2021. In October, for example, flooding in Shanxi
forced mines to shut down and made the supply situation evenworse just as northeastern China’s heating season was beginning.

Nevertheless, output is not likely to expand quickly enough, eventhough authorities in Inner Mongolia approved the restart of 38
disused opencast mines with a capacity of 66.7 Mtpa, and the
NDRC has eased conditions for mine extensions taking place
before April 2022. In addition, Shanxi province ordered its 98 coalmines to increase their annual output by 55.3 Mt over the remainderof the year and allowed 51 coal mines that had reached their annual
production cap to keep producing and raise capacity, adding
roughly 20 Mt of extra supply.

Year-on-year change in China’s coal production by region,
January to September, 2020-2021

Because of strong demand growth, constrained production andlimited imports, power plants have been running low on stocks. At
the same time, provinces have been at risk of missing the energy
consumption and intensity targets set by the government. Powerrationing was therefore initiated in two-thirds of China’s provinces in
September 2021 (see also the Demand chapter).

Mt

120
90
60
30
0
-30

Shanxi

Shaanxi

Xinjiang

OthersIEA. All rights reserved.

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China (2021), Statistical database.
PAGE | 38

IEA. All rights reserved.

Inner
Mongolia

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Coal 2021

China’s 14th Five-Year Plan promotes coal production to raise energy security
The 14th Five-Year Plan, which outlines China’s economic priorities
for development during 2021-2025, attempts to balanceenvironmental (i.e. climate), energy security and affordability
considerations. Therefore, despite China’s commitment to peak its
carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,
the plan considers coal an irreplaceable energy source in upcoming
years.

Inner Mongolia’s Shendong Coal Basin, and for mines in Shaanxi
and Xinjiang.
China’s coal production is thus expected to expand ~4.3% in 2021
and then by a more moderate 0.5% per year. Total coal productionof 3 982 Mt is therefore forecast for 2024.

Planned changes in China’s mining capacity by region,
2020-2025
Mtpa

The plan’s aim is to stabilise coal production to secure 4 100 Mt by2025. 7 At the same time, it targets average annual coalconsumption growth of 1%, resulting in 4 200 Mt tonnes in 2025.
The balance would therefore be supplied by imports.

200
150
100
50

Following the direction already charted by the 13th Five-Year Plan,
Chinese mining companies are to make their mines increasingly
safe, automated and digitalised, as per the “large-scale,modernisation, intensification and ecology” development directive.
As part of this process, China’s total number of mines is to be
reduced by 700 to 4 000, meaning that small mines will continue tobe closed. The government of Shanxi, currently the largest coalproducing province, has already announced a production cap of
1 000 Mt per year. Meanwhile, production increases are planned for

0
-50
-100

Inner
Mongolia

Shanxi

Shaanxi

Xinjiang

OthersIEA. All rights reserved.

7
As China’s official statistics usually refer to raw coal, the production values they quote cannot becompared directly with those of this report, which refer to saleable coal.

PAGE | 39

IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: Government of China (2021), 14th Five-Year-Plan.

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Coal 2021

India experienced critical coal supply shortages despite ramping up production in 2021
India’s coal production in 2020 was 764 Mt, a slight increase (+1%)
from 2019. Overall output for 2020 rose despite a 14% drop in thesecond quarter of the year (compared with the same period in 2019)as the Covid-19 pandemic hit the country.

spot price increases for power on the Indian Energy Exchange (e.g.
a 193% y-o-y increase in October).
The government addressed the situation by regulating coal supplies
for plants with the most critical stocks; ramping up mine production
and offtake; encouraging captive block owners to not only raise
production to meet their own needs but to sell up to 50% of theirproduction (the limit is normally 25%); and allowing blending of up
to 10% imported coal. The Minister of Power has also said that he isworking to operationalise captive blocks that could start production
immediately.

2021 coal production is estimated at 793 Mt, an increase of 3.7%.
Despite this rise, India started experiencing coal shortages inAugust, when a number of power stations began reporting that theircoal stocks had fallen to critical or supercritical levels. 8 By early
October, power plants were down to average stocks of four days’
supply, with stocks improving slightly but continuously since. The
supply shortage was caused by several factors: a surge in power
demand attributable to post-pandemic economic recovery; heavy
monsoons in mining areas, which affected production andtransportation from pitheads to power plants; high prices onimported coal, which led to curtailment of plants relying on thoseimports; and insufficient stock build-up in the first half of 2021.

No. of days

Coal stocks of India’s power plants and share of plants withcritical stocks, Dec 2018 - Oct 2021

Because India’s energy system relies heavily on long-term
agreements (for coal and electricity), the country’s tight supply
conditions were reflected in higher domestic coal auction prices(56% above notified prices in the third quarter) as well as massive

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21
Coal stocks (left axis)
Share of plants with critical stocks (right axis)

100%
50%
0%

IEA. All rights reserved.

8
In India, critical stocks refer to less than five days’ supply for mine-mouth plants, nine days for
those linked to a coal mine further than 1 500 km away, and seven for the rest. Supercritical stocks
refer to less than three, five and four days of supply, respectively.

PAGE | 40

IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: Central Electricity Authority (2018-2021), Daily Coal Stock Report.

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Coal 2021

India’s coal producers have ambitious plans to open new projects by 2024
SCCL is the main coal producer in India’s southern region. In 2020it accounted for ~7% of India’s total coal production and currently
operates 20 opencast and 26 underground mines, with plans toramp up production to 85 Mt by 2024.

To reduce its import bills and alleviate the coal supply crisis of late2021, India plans to boost domestic coal production. We therefore
expect India’s total coal production to rise to 955 Mt by 2024, anincrease of 163 Mt at a CAAGR of over 6%. Responsible for thisexpansion will be India’s three coal mining public sector
undertakings – Coal India Limited (CIL), Singareni CollieriesCompany Limited (SCCL) and Neyveli Lignite Company (NLC) – aswell as captive blocks for self-consumption and, potentially, newcommercial coal blocks auctioned by the government.

State-owned NLC, India’s largest lignite producer, aims to expand
its lignite production capacity with two greenfield and two brownfieldprojects next year. Following its involvement with the Talabira II and
III mines, NLC also hopes to commence production in Jharkhand at
Pacchwara South block by fiscal year 2022-23. Like the Talabira
opencast project, NLC plans to operate the Pacchwara South block
through an MDO, though none has been selected yet.

CIL, the world’s largest coal mining company, accounted for ~80%
of India’s total coal production in 2020. CIL operates 345 mines:
151 underground, 172 opencast and 22 mixed. More than 95% of
CIL’s coal comes from opencast mines.

Planned increases in India’s coal mining capacity by public
sector undertaking, 2021-2024
600
500

Lignite Projects

400

Projects through
MDOs

300
200

Ongoing projects

100
0Coal India

Singareni

Note: MDO = mining developer and operator.

PAGE | 41

Neyveli
IEA. All rights reserved.

IEA. All rights reserved.

Mtpa

To support the government’s goal of raising domestic coalproduction, CIL is aiming for 1 000 Mt by fiscal year 2023-24. To
achieve this target, the Ministry of Coal has announced 55
greenfield projects (92 Mtpa of production capacity) and 193
brownfield ventures (310 Mtpa) to be launched by 2024. CIL alsoplans to open 15 mines – 12 opencast and 3 underground with
168 Mt of annual capacity– through mine developers and operators(MDOs). Five of these mines have been tendered so far, and MDOs
have been selected for two of them. Procedures for tendering andcontracting the remaining mines are to be completed in 2022.

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Coal 2021

With several Indian mines signed with MDOs, captive blocks are expanding
Of the remaining unallocated blocks, 19 are expected to become
operational by 2024: 14 captive blocks have already engaged
MDOs; 2 captive blocks are to be developed through MDOs; and 3
more blocks allocated to non-coal-mining public sector undertakings
are also likely to be developed by MDOs.

In addition to the three public sector undertakings (CIL, SCCL and
NLC), many smaller companies produce coal for their own
consumption and are called captive miners in India. Captive mining,
India’s first exception to the state-owned monopoly, was created toensure that power producers and other industries such as cement,
steel and aluminium manufacturing could be guaranteed a regularsupply of high-quality coal for their end uses.

The National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC), India’s largest
power generator, has been allocated ten mines for captive use. Of
these, three with a peak rated capacity of 40 Mtpa are currently
operational and produced 11 Mt in 2020, and three more with apeak capacity of 33 Mtpa are expected to be operational by 2024.
Meanwhile, two captive blocks containing 10 Mtpa of coking coaland one captive block with 2.3 Mtpa of thermal coal are on the 2024
horizon, though it is not clear whether they will engage MDOs.

As captive coal blocks began being allocated in the 1990s, many
private mining and logistics companies saw an opportunity to enter
the market as contractors. Eventually, many of the private miners
moved from being outsourced as part of mining operations toproviding end-to-end services for inexperienced captive blockowners who lacked technical expertise in coal mining. This came tobe known as the mine developer and operator (MDO) model.
Currently, 19 of India’s 24 MDO-operated mines are captive coal
blocks and the remaining are registered to CIL (4) and NLC (1).
Some of the most active companies in the MDO domain are AdaniEnterprises, BGR Mining, Ambey Mining, Thriveni Earthmovers,
AMR and EMIL.

Mtpa

MDO mines in India by status and owner type by 2024
200
150

Coal PSU

100

Private50

There have been ten tranches of captive block allocations since2015, with over 100 blocks allocated. However, due toenvironmental clearance, land acquisition, and resettlement andrehabilitation issues, only 26 of these blocks are operational.

0

Non-coal PSU
Current

Signed Proposed

LikelyPAGE | 42

IEA. All rights reserved.

IEA. All rights reserved.
Note: PSU = public sector undertaking.

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Coal 2021

Commercial blocks receive a policy push for earlier starts and more auctions
To further boost coal production, India’s government broke the statemonopoly on coal in 2018 by approving a procedure for auctioning
coal blocks to private companies for commercial sale of coal.

block auctions will be arranged and second rounds for mines
receiving only one qualifying bid will be conducted every few
months. Eighty new mines have been proposed for addition to themine pool for auction in the next four years.

In June 2020, the government launched the first tranche ofcommercial coal block auctions in India. Altogether, 38 mines were
put up for auction, of which 19 received the minimum requirement of
two qualifying bids. The winners of these 19 blocks included stateowned enterprises, MDOs, captive industrial consumers andseveral other companies, many with little coal mining experience.

In 2021, the government allotted a total of 9 mines throughauctions: 1 of 4 mines from the second round of the first tranche,and only 8 of the 67 mines on offer from the second tranche ofcommercial auctions.

None of these 19 mines is operational so far, having been delayedby the usual land acquisition, permitting, clearance, andresettlement and rehabilitation obstacles. However, it is anticipatedthat around six of these mines (with total capacity of ~22 Mtpa) will
be operational by 2024.
In 2021, the Ministry of Coal announced several measures toensure the fast-tracking of production from the commercial coal
blocks won in auctions. First, a project management unit has been
assigned to work with bid winners to help them resolve bottleneck
issues. Second, a single-window clearance portal was launched toprovide a unified platform that will accept all applications fornecessary coal mining clearances and approvals. Last, a system ofrolling auctions has been proposed, wherein a new tranche of coal
PAGE | 43

IEA. All rights reserved.

In line with its proposed rolling auctions, in October 2021 theMinistry of Coal announced 11 mines on offer for the second roundof the second tranche, as well as 40 new mines for the next (third)
tranche of commercial coal block auctions, with a total of 88 mines
on offer, including mines rolled over from previous tranches.
Auctions for these mines are likely to take place in the first quarterof 2022.

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Coal 2021

Australian and Indonesian coal production remains high, but the output future depends onexport opportunities
Australia’s coal production declined 8% to 468 Mt in 2020, withproduction falling in all coal grades. 62% of production was thermalcoal, including lignite, the remainder being met coal.

projects are becoming more challenging, leading to higher costs
and sometimes rendering projects economically unfeasible.

Coal production changes in Australia and Indonesia,
2020-2024
Mt

Coal exports to China vanished in 2021 due to China’s unofficial
ban on Australian coal. Since then, global trade flows have largely
been rebalanced with other importing countries such as India andKorea filling the gap. Although prices for both Australian thermal
and metallurgical coal surged in the second half of 2021, issues
such as bad weather and temporary mine closures due to mining
incidents prevented Australian mining companies from benefitting
fully. (Please see the Prices and Costs chapter for a more detailed
discussion of supply-side disruptions in 2021.) While we expect
thermal coal production to increase 7% in 2021, met coal isanticipated to amount to 180 Mt, remaining at around the 2020
level.

30
20
10
0

- 10
- 20
- 30
- 40
- 50

Australia’s thermal coal production is forecast to remain constrained
through 2024. While we expect the Carmichael mine to ramp up to
10 Mtpa in late 2021 or early 2022, growing pressure from legal
disputes and from federal and state regulators hampers the
expansion of existing mines and the development of new ones.
Furthermore, financing and insurance conditions for coal mining

2020

2021

20212024

Australia

2020

2021

20212024

Indonesia

Met coal for export
Thermal coal for export
Thermal coal for domestic consumption

PAGE | 44

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IEA. All rights reserved.

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Coal 2021

Consequently, Australia's thermal coal industry is expected toshrink slowly as mine closures outpace capacity additions.
Additionally, as Russia’s infrastructure improves it will give Australia
more competition in high-calorific-value coal. We therefore expect
Australia to produce 287 Mt of thermal coal in 2024, about 31 Mt
less than in 2019, with lower demand for coal for domestic power
generation also contributing to the decline.

resulting in 570 Mt of output in 2024, as both China and India – themain importers of Indonesian coal – are redoubling their efforts to
reduce coal imports.

However, met coal production in Australia is expected to increase
11 Mt by 2024, as the country’s federal and state governments haveapproved a number of new mine developments for met coalprojects. In fact, several metallurgical mines are about to reopen or
be commissioned. (Please see the Coal Mining Projects chapter fora detailed analysis of Australia’s coal mining investments.)
In Indonesia, coal production fell 6% to 564 Mt in 2020. About 99%of the country’s output is thermal coal. 9
In 2021, Indonesia’s coal production is expected to expand 2.2% to576 Mt, even though coal mining companies have had difficulty
ramping up production due to the low availability of heavy-duty
equipment. Furthermore, heavy rains and flooding, particularly inthe third quarter of 2021, curbed coal production and some
exporters were forced to declare force majeure.

9

There is a substantial production of lignite in Indonesia, but it is reported as thermal coal.
PAGE | 45

IEA. All rights reserved.

A 0.4% per year decline in Indonesia’s coal production is forecast,Supply

Coal 2021

US coal production growth in 2021 should not be mistaken for a trend reversal
US coal production dropped a drastic 24% in 2020 to 485 Mt, thelowest level since 1965. It had already been falling since theproduction peak of 2008, a trend prompted mostly by declining
domestic coal use for power generation and shrinking demand by
Europe, the leading importer of US coal. Additionally, industrial
activity – and especially power demand – declined in 2020 during
the Covid-19 pandemic, which, together with low gas prices,
depressed coal production. As a result of this consumption slump,the number of producing coal mines in the United States fell 18% to551 mines in 2020, a 62% drop from 2008.

We forecast that US coal production will continue to expand in 2022
before resuming its declining trajectory, which will lead to 484 Mt of
output in 2024. The return to last decade's production downturnreflects the anticipated drop in North American and European coaldemand.

In 2021, coal output is expected to increase 9% (+43 Mt) from 2020,
stimulated by a rebound in domestic consumption as well as
overseas exports. Still, production is not expected to keep up withthe strong recovery in demand, leading to a 56-Mt decline in US
coal stocks.
Although the United States is registering an overall production
increase in 2021, output is uneven across the US coal mining
regions. While production in the main coal-producing states of
Wyoming, West Virginia, Pennsylvania and Illinois rose, it continued
to decline in other states with less production capacity, such as
Indiana, Texas, New Mexico and Alabama.

Mt

30%

Expected US coal production changes by state,2020-2021
60

Wyoming

25%

50

20%

40

15%

30

10%

20

5%

10

Montana0%0Kentucky-5%-10

Indiana

-10%

-20

-15%

-30

West Virginia
Pennsylvania
Illinois
North Dakota

Texas
Other
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 46

IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: IEA estimates from EIA (2021), Weekly Coal Production.

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Coal 2021

In the Americas, Canada’s production falls while Colombia’s is limited by Prodeco closure
Canadian coal production fell ~18% in 2020 to 46 Mt, with theeffects of the Covid-19 pandemic reinforcing the steady decline
from ~69 Mt of production in 2014. Output is not expected torecover in 2021, with coal production remaining around the 2020
level.

together had an output of ~16 Mt in 2019. The mines were put incare and maintenance mode in March 2020, and operations are not
to be restarted, leaving Colombia with three major mines: El
Descanso and Pribbenow, owned by Drummond International, andCerrejón (its largest mine), soon fully owned by Glencore, which
recently bought Anglo American’s and BHP’s shares. As a result,
we do not expect Colombia’s coal production to recover to the 2019
level but to remain at its 2021 output, declining slightly to 62 Mt in
2024.

The country’s output is forecast to continue shrinking to 43 Mt by2024. This 38% drop in coal output reflects the Canadiangovernment’s intentions to discontinue coal use for power
generation and to stop exporting thermal coal by 2030. In contrast,
we expect Canada’s met coal production to remain stable at the2021 level.

Colombia’s coal production by mine and company,
2019-2021
100

Drummond International
El Descanso
Pribbenow

Mt

In Colombia, coal production fell a drastic 42% in 2020 to 49 Mt.
Low coal prices, plummeting demand in the Atlantic Basin andinterruptions due to Covid-19 containment measures – in addition toindustrial action at El Cerrejón, the country’s largest coal mine –prompted the drop. Labour and social crises have been coinciding
with progressively shrinking international demand for coal and aloss of markets for Colombia, creating a sustained production
decline. Nevertheless, we expect production to recover 35% in 2021
as demand in key markets increases.

80
60

Glencore:
Cerrejon

40

Prodeco:Calenturitas
La Jagua200This year, Prodeco (a subsidiary of Glencore) announced it isceasing operation of its Calenturitas and La Jagua mines, which

Other
2019

2020

2021

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Coal 2021

Russia is set to raise its coal production and export capacities
Coal production in Eurasia declined to 526 Mt in 2020, from 578 Mt
in 2019 (-9%). The region’s largest coal producer is Russia, where
production fell 9% to 398 Mt in 2020.

the Coal Mining Projects chapter for a more detailed discussion of
Russian investment in coal export capacity.)

Coal production changes in Russia, 2020-2024
Mt

In 2021, Eurasian coal output is expected to increase ~7%, mainly
as Russian production rises 9% to 433 Mt. The level in Kazakhstan,
the region’s second-largest coal producer, will be stable at almost
100 Mt, and Ukraine’s production is also expected to remain stable,
although this is more uncertain.

600
500
400
300

In the forecast to 2024, Russia’s coal output is expected to expand
2.8% to 445 Mt, this being the driving force for a 3.5% increase inEurasia overall. Already the world’s largest exporter of fossil fuels,
Russia announced a new energy strategy in 2020 to expand its coalproduction to 448-530 Mtpa by 2024 and to 485-668 Mtpa by 2035,
with the goal of doubling its coal exports within this period.

200

500
400
300
200
100
0

100
0

To this end, Russia is developing new coal fields (e.g. in its Far
East and Arctic region) and expanding export facilities such as
railways and export terminals. Examples include development of the
Syradasayskoye coal field on the Taimyr Peninsula, a 44% capacity
increase of the Baikal-Amur Mainline and Trans-Siberian Railway
network, and the construction of various export terminals (e.g. at the
Yenisei port, Port Dickenson and the Port of Lavna). (Please see

2020

2021

2024

Met coal
Thermal coal for export
Thermal coal for domestic consumption
Russia's Energy Strategy

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Coal 2021

Europe’s coal production recovered in 2021, but will decline again through 2024
EU coal production dropped 19% to 301 Mt in 2020, mainly due todeclining demand for power generation. Output fell in both Germany(-18%) and Poland (-10%), Europe’s main coal-producing countries.
In 2021 we expect coal production to rebound strongly to ~329 Mt
before returning to a declining trajectory, falling to 247 Mt by 2024.

Furthermore, at the behest of the Czech Republic, in September
2021 the European Court of Justice ruled that operation of theTurow opencast lignite mine near the Czech border must ceasebecause it endangers water supplies. Poland has rejected closureof the opencast mine on grounds of energy supply security, andbilateral negotiations are currently under way between the twocountries. Through 2024, these decisions will have only a limited
impact on Poland’s coal production, which is expected to decreaseby 8 Mt to 99 Mt.

In Germany, the economic upturn, low electricity generation fromrenewable energy sources and, above all, high gas prices led to arebound in lignite-fired power generation in 2021, which will raise
coal production ~17% to 125 Mt, surpassing 2019 output. As part ofGermany’s plan to phase out coal by 2038, the lignite power plant
fleet will be reduced almost 3 GW (-16%) by 2024. Therefore, as
carbon prices are high and the country is expanding renewable
power generation, Germany’s coal production is expected todecrease strongly to 85 Mt by 2024.

Mt

Expected production decline from Germany’s lignite power plant
phaseout, 2020-2024
20
16
12
8

Poland’s coal production increased 6% to 107 Mt in 2021, also due
to higher electricity demand and steep gas prices. In September
2020, the Polish government agreed with trade unions to graduallycease coal mining by 2049, and in April 2021 both parties signed
the deal. This agreement resulted from EU pressure to reducecarbon emissions as well as rising mining costs, which makedomestic supplies uncompetitive with imports from countries suchas Russia.

40

Neurath E
Neurath D
Frechen
Neurath A
Weisweiler E/F
Neurath B
Niederaußem C
Niederaußem D
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PAGE | 49

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: Assumed capacity factor = 0.7. Assumed calorific value = 2 150 kcal/kg.

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Coal 2021

African developments are minor, and production in South Africa remains below the 2019 level
South Africa accounted for around 94% of Africa’s coal production
in 2020, amounting to 247 Mt, down 4.4% from 2019. In 2021, its
output is expected to decrease slightly to 244 Mt. Logisticalproblems, including civil unrest, train derailments and ongoing
maintenance work on the export line to Richards Bay reduced coalexports, and domestic demand recovered only partially. Through2024, South African coal production is expected to remain stable atthe 2021 level, as a recovery to 2019 output is being prevented by
the withdrawal of major mining companies such as Anglo American,
as well as by cuts to planned domestic coal-fired power capacity.
The only major new mine likely to become operational by 2024 is
Seriti's New Largo mine, for which construction began in 2020.

Coal production in other southern African countries has beenminimal, but Botswana, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe areplanning to expand their coal operations, especially for domestic
power generation. However, as mentioned in the Demand chapter,
it is still uncertain which projects can be implemented now that
China is not building new coal-fired power plants abroad.

Mozambique, Africa’s second-largest coal producer, had total
production of 7 Mt in 2020, down from 11 Mt in 2019. The country
was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, but coalproduction is expected to remain stable. Coal India conducts coal
exploration in the country, and Ncondezi Energy has announced a300-MW coal mine/power plant project, but no investment decisions
have yet been made. Also, with Vale preparing to discontinue coal
exploitation in Mozambique this year, future coal production in the
country will depend on the operation’s new ownership. We expect
coal production to increase, as current production capacity is not
being fully utilised, with output in 2024 amounting to ~11 Mt.

Meanwhile, Zimbabwe’s government is planning new mines withcorresponding coal-fired power plants in the northwestern district ofHwange. The plan is for mining companies to extract thermal coalfirst, for power generation, and then to extract coking coal frombeneath these deposits. One project already under development in
the region is the Lubu complex, which could produce up to 0.5 Mtpa
of metallurgical coal and is scheduled to start operations this year. It
is not yet clear whether other projects will go ahead.
PAGE | 50

IEA. All rights reserved.

The future of coal mining in Botswana appears promising, as thegovernment is offering support for coal exploitation with the aim of
reducing the country’s dependence on diamonds. Up to 2019, thestate-owned Morupule Coal Mine was the only mine operating in
Botswana, but since then, mining licences have also been issued to
private companies. Minergy exported the first coal from its Masama
mine in July 2020, and several other projects are under construction
or in early planning. Botswana is also pursuing construction of a rail
link to South Africa to gain access to export markets.

TradeCoal 2021

PAGE | 51

IEA. All rights reserved.

TradeTradeCoal 2021

Global coal trade rebounds in 2021 then plateaus
Global coal trade dropped 11% from the record volume in 2019 to
1 298 Mt in 2020, 10 with traded coal making up 17% of global coalconsumption in 2020. While trade in thermal coal (which includes
lignite and some anthracite in this section) decreased 11%,
metallurgical (met) coal trade volumes (which account for onequarter of traded coal) also declined (-9%). The overwhelming
majority of coal traded in 2020 (92%/1 183 Mt) was seaborne.

economic value. China was the largest importer of coal in 2020 at
314 Mt, followed by India at 214 Mt.
In 2021, we expect trade volumes to recover by over 5%, or ~70 Mt,
and thereafter remain below 2019 levels. For thermal coal, avolume increase of 7% is expected, while for met coal the same
volume is traded as in 2020. In addition to rising exports fromIndonesia (+9%), Russia (+6%) and Australia (+1.1%), those of theUnited States are expected to increase (+28%) as European importdemand rebounds.

International thermal coal trade patterns shifted in the 2010s.
Traditionally, trade had been concentrated on the Pacific Basin and
the Atlantic Basin, with South Africa and – to a much lesser extent –Russia linking the two. International coal trade no longer follows thispattern, however, as the Atlantic market has shrunk drastically andseparated from the Asian market. Turkey’s imports (40 Mt in 2020)
have surpassed Germany’s (30 Mt) to make it the largest coal
importer outside the Asia Pacific region, which accounted for 84%
of global coal imports in 2020.
Indonesia remained the world’s largest exporter of coal (by weight),
with total exports of 405 Mt in 2020. Australia ranked second, at
372 Mt, although it remains at the top in terms of energy and10
For various reasons, annual imports and exports do not match: for example, some exports
reported in December may be reported as imports in January. Trade volumes in this section referto exports.

PAGE | 52

IEA. All rights reserved.

For the next three years to 2024, we foresee global coal tradestability, with thermal coal volumes declining 1.9% per year and met
coal increasing 2.8% annually. Thermal coal trade will be altered as
China and India – the world’s two largest importers – raise domestic
production to reduce import reliance, and as the European Union,
Japan and Korea reduce their coal-fired power generation.
Conversely, we expect higher volumes of met coal to be tradedbecause China and India – the countries with the highest
consumption – cannot raise their domestic production substantially,and because met coal demand for steel production remains highglobally.

TradeCoal 2021

Thermal and met coal trade depend on China and India
Metallurgical coal trade development, 2019-2024
12%

800

1 200

12%

8%

800

8%

400

4%

400

4%

0

0%

0

0%

- 400

-4%

- 400

-4%

- 800

-8%

- 800

-8%

-12%

-1 200-1 200

2019
2020
2021
Rest of world (left axis)
India

2022
2023
China

2024

2019
2020
2021
Rest of world (left axis)
India

Annual growth (right axis)

2022
2023
China

2024

-12%

Annual growth (right axis)
IEA. All rights reserved

IEA. All rights reserved

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1 200

Mt

Mt

Thermal coal trade development, 2019-2024

TradeCoal 2021

PAGE | 54

IEA. All rights reserved.

Thermal coal

TradeCoal 2021

After reaching an all-time high in 2019, thermal coal exports plummeted in 2020
In 2020, 978 Mt of thermal coal were traded internationally – a
124-Mt drop from 2019 due to declining demand during the global
pandemic. Approximately 916 Mt (94%) of this trade was seaborne.

Southeast Asia’s imports expanded 8% in 2020 as coal demand
increased, especially in Viet Nam, in response to strong economic
growth. Imports by the Philippines and Thailand also rose slightly
during the global pandemic, as did those of Japan (+1.7%) andChina (+4.4%). Conversely, drastically lower imports by India(-16%) and Europe (-25%) were the main reason for the overall
decline in thermal coal trade.

The share of internationally traded thermal coal in global coalconsumption fell slightly to 15% in 2020. Annual data on thermal
coal imports and exports are different, partly due to China’s tradepractices and import quotas. Because of China’s quotas, ships thatleft ports at the end of 2019 were not discharged and registered asimports in China until January 2020. Therefore, higher values forimports than exports were recorded for 2020.
Most seaborne thermal coal trade occurs in the Asia Pacific region,
where the largest importers and exporters are both concentrated.
Indonesia provided 41% of globally traded thermal coal in 2020, andAustralia ranked second with 20%, increasing its market share from
19% in 2019. Other important exporters are Russia (18%), South
Africa (8%), Colombia (5%) and the United States (2.5%).
China was the largest importer of thermal coal in 2020, accountingfor 23%, followed by India (15%) and Japan (14%) as well asSoutheast Asia (13%). Europe receives around 8% of thermal coal
imports.

PAGE | 55

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Thermal coal exports from all the main exporting countries
decreased in 2020. The most severe drop was in Indonesia(-57 Mt/-12%) because its exports depend highly on the Indian
market, which shrank dramatically in 2020. As demand from theAtlantic Basin market (especially Europe) was also severely
impacted by the pandemic, thermal coal exports plummeted forColombia (-23 Mt/-30%) as well as the United States (-13 Mt/-34%).
Australian exports declined 12 Mt (-6%), underpinned by Chinese
import restrictions. Other countries that exported lower volumes ofthermal coal in 2020 are South Africa (-5%), which exported less to
India, and Russia (-5%). However, even though Russian exports to
Europe declined 18 Mt, its share in European imports overall
increased slightly to 66%.

TradeCoal 2021

Largest exporters and importers are in Asia Pacific
Main trade flows in the thermal coal market, 2020 (Mt)

PAGE | 56

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IEA. All rights reserved.

Note: Map values are based on available export data and do not necessarily match import numbers.

TradeCoal 2021

China’s import policies are altering international markets
for 2021 overall, we expect Chinese thermal coal imports to be 8%(20 Mt) higher than in 2020.

China’s changing import policies have been affecting international
markets for some years, and its recent import quotas have raised
import volatility considerably. For instance, China’s thermal coal
imports jumped from just ~8.5 Mt in November 2020 to a record~36 Mt in December 2020 as the government relaxed import
restrictions in response to high demand resulting from a cold winterand industrial recovery, as well as domestic supply constraints. This
increase in imports in December 2020 benefitted Indonesian
producers, as it coincided with China’s ban on coal imports from
Australia due to worsening diplomatic relations.

Mt

China’s monthly thermal coal imports, 2019-2021
40
30

2019

20

2020

10
0

2021
Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov
IEA. All rights reserved.

In 2021, China’s thermal coal imports of the first four months werelower than during the same period in 2020, as it filled the Australiancoal gap only partially with coal from other exporting countries.
Starting in June 2021, however, its imports rose to exceed those of
the previous year, as domestic production could not keep pace with
consumption and coal stocks were diminishing. The beneficiaries ofChina’s increase in imports (still in the absence of Australian coal)
were Russia, owing to quality reasons, and Indonesia to a lesser
extent. Even South Africa, taking advantage of China’s relaxation ofimported coal fluorine levels, sent its first coal shipment to China
since 2014. In fact, China’s ban on Australian coal even opened up
opportunities for Colombian and US producers in other markets.

Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

China’s monthly y-o-y changes in thermal coal imports byorigin country, 2020-2021
Mt

40
30
20
10
0
- 10

Australia
Indonesia
RussiaOther

IEA. All rights reserved.

In October, China’s coal imports rose 96% y-o-y as it battled coalshortages and replenished its inventories for the winter. Therefore,
PAGE | 57

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Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

TradeCoal 2021

Thermal coal import volumes remain stable to 2024, with increases limited to Asia
continued economic growth and greater coal use for power
generation. Although India’s increase in thermal coal imports isdampened by efforts to expand its own production, domestic output
will not be sufficient to meet increasing demand unless commercial
blocks ramp up production very quickly.

At 1 059 Mt, total global thermal coal imports for 2021 will be ~3.6%(50 Mt) higher than in 2020. In addition to China, thermal coal
imports are rebounding in many other regions around the world,
especially the European Union (+39%/+19 Mt). With very few
exceptions (notably Poland), EU countries rely on imports to meettheir thermal coal demand. Rising demand (driven by greater coaluse for power generation) therefore results in higher imports.

China’s efforts to replace imports with larger shares of domestic
production are expected to be more successful, leading to an importdecline (-60 Mt), although of all countries’ thermal coal imports
covered in this forecast, those of China are probably the mostuncertain. We further expect lower thermal coal imports by theEuropean Union (-24 Mt), Japan (-14 Mt) and Korea (-8 Mt). In
these regions, falling import volumes reflect declining coal demand,
especially for electricity generation.

In India, consumers are very price-sensitive, so high international
coal market prices have a stronger effect on imports here thanelsewhere. Therefore, even though coal shortages have impacted
India’s electricity supply as well as some of its industries, we expect
the country’s total thermal coal imports for 2021 to fall 5 Mt (-3%).
The situation is more complex in Korea and Japan, where high coal
spot prices compete marginally with high gas spot prices, but
considerable portions of the countries’ fuels are supplied throughterm contracts (with gas prices being oil-indexed and coal prices
being generally fixed). The imports of both these countries fluctuatewith weather conditions, fuel prices or nuclear output.

Mt

India’s monthly thermal coal imports, 2019-2021
20
15

2019

10

2020

5

Leading up to 2024, total global thermal coal imports are forecast to
decrease slightly, to 990 Mt, as declines in China and othercountries outweigh import expansion in India. We expect anincrease in thermal coal imports by India (+13 Mt) as well as otherregions of Asia (for example Southeast Asia [+26 Mt]) with

0

2021
Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov
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PAGE | 58

IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

TradeCoal 2021

The 2021 uptick in Atlantic Basin thermal coal imports is a short-lived phenomenon
Seaborne thermal coal trade changes by basin,
2020-2024

1 080

Mt

1 060

1 020
1 000

1 040

980

1 020

960

1 000

940

980

920

960
940

900

920

880

900

2020

China
Korea
Rest of world

2021

India
Other Asia

860

2024

Japan
European Union

2020

2021

Atlantic

IEA. All rights reserved.

Pacific

2024

IndianIEA. All rights reserved.
Note: The “Indian” category covers India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.

PAGE | 59

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Mt

Thermal coal import changes, 2020-2024

TradeCoal 2021

Thermal coal exports recovered in 2021, while China’s ban on Australian coal distorted flows
With coal demand rebounding in 2021, thermal coal exports are
expected to be 71 Mt (+7%) higher than in 2020. 2021’s exports will
surpass its imports because 2020’s recorded imports wereartificially high due to delays in discharging coal ships at China’s
ports at the end of 2019.

addition, India’s market, which is the key buyer of South Africancoal, is very price-sensitive and therefore reduced its imports whencoal prices skyrocketed.
Looking ahead to 2024, we expect thermal coal exports to fall to
990 Mt (-6%), the main contributor being the United States (-16 Mt),
as demand in the Atlantic Basin, particularly Europe, returns to a
declining trajectory. South Africa (-9 Mt), Australia (-3 Mt) andIndonesia (-26 Mt) are also affected by the overall contraction inthermal coal imports, but Russia’s exports are likely to remainroughly stable. As a low-cost supplier, Russia will gain market
shares if it can expand its rail infrastructure quickly enough.

We expect Indonesia to register the largest increase in thermal coalexports (+9%/+35 Mt). Indonesian exporters are profiting the mostfrom rising import demand in Asia, especially China, as Chinese
customers prefer Indonesian coal for its quality and price. In the firsthalf of 2021, the share of Indonesian thermal coal in China’s
imports rose to 72%, up from 61% in 2020. As a result of China’s
ban on Australian coal, Australian exporters have found othermarkets, mainly in Asia, and their exports are expected to recoverby 8 Mt (+3.8%) in 2021 as they send more coal to India and Korea.

PAGE | 60

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With the strong recovery in import demand in the Atlantic Basin,
especially Europe, higher exports are expected from Russia(+14 Mt), the United States (+13 Mt) and Colombia (+5 Mt). South
Africa is the only major thermal coal exporter for which a decline isforeseen (-3 Mt), resulting from structural issues such as
underinvestment in recent years, rail network problems and social
unrest following detention of the country’s former president. In

TradeCoal 2021

Global thermal coal export changes, 2020-2024
1 060

8

Mt

Mt

Australia’s monthly y-o-y thermal coal exports changes
by destination, 2020-2021
1 050
1 040

4

1 030
1 020

0

1 010
1 000

-4

990
980

-8

970
Japan
India

Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

960

2020
Indonesia
Colombia

South Korea
Southeast Asia

Australia
United States

2021
RussiaRest of world

2024
South Africa

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China
TaiwanOther

TradeCoal 2021

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Metallurgical coal

TradeCoal 2021

Met coal trade is concentrated in Asia, with Australia leading exports
Although the met coal market has only one-third the volume of thethermal coal market, international trade is more important for met
coal. In 2020, about 318 Mt or 29% of total met coal consumed wasimported, of which 286 Mt (88%) was acquired through seaborne
trade. Met coal trade declined 33 Mt or 9% from 2019 to 2020.

met coal supply, accounting for 16% of all imports. Yet, imports by
Europe declined 9 Mt (-15%) in 2020 as reduced steel production
cut demand.
In terms of exports, 26% of the met coal Australia exported in 2020
went to India, its other major buyers being China (23%) and Japan(18%). Australian exporters benefitted from increasing imports bySoutheast Asia in 2020, but less of their met coal was imported by
China (due to its ban on Australian coal) and by India. Australian
exports therefore decreased 6% in 2020.

The market for met coal is highly concentrated on the export side,with Australia being the dominant global supplier (54% share in2020). Other countries with significant market shares are the UnitedStates (12%), Canada (9%), Russia (12%) and Mongolia (7%).
Asia Pacific countries accounted for 74% of all met coal imports in
2020, with China leading the way at 24%, although China’s imports
were 8 Mt (-10%) lower than in 2019 because its domestic

At the same time, exports from the United States contracted
strongly (‑ 20%) as low coal prices made production uneconomical
for higher-cost US producers. In Mongolia, which exports met coalby truck to China only, exports dropped 23% in 2020 due totemporary closures and pandemic-related restrictions at the
Chinese-Mongolian border.

production had increased. Japan’s imports also decreased (‑ 9%)
as its steel industry suffered significant production cuts due to theeconomic slowdown during the pandemic, as well as structuralchanges.
Meanwhile, Southeast Asia registered higher met coal imports(+15%) in 2020 as more coking coal was required for new blast
furnaces, especially in Indonesia, Viet Nam and India (+3.7%).
Europe as a whole remained one of the largest importers becauseof its large iron and steel production capacities and limited domestic

PAGE | 63

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In contrast with the other major met coal exporters, Russia’s exports
expanded 12% in 2020.

TradeCoal 2021

Australia dominates met coal trade
Main trade flows in the metallurgical coal market, 2020 (Mt)

PAGE | 64

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IEA. All rights reserved.

Note: Map values are based on available export data and do not necessarily match import numbers.

TradeCoal 2021

India is set to overtake China as the world’s largest met coal importer
Global met coal imports are expected to increase 3 Mt (+1.0%) to
323 Mt in 2021. Despite this growth, however, total imports remain
below the 2019 level.

to flatten, following anticipated demand developments. India is the
only country for which we foresee a significant import increase(+13 Mt) as pig iron and steel production continue to expand. In
fact, India is forecast to overtake China as the largest importer of
met coal in 2024, and India’s rising imports lead us to expect global
met coal imports to increase 23 Mt to 346 Mt.

In 2020, Australia accounted for ~50% of China’s met coal imports,
and when China banned Australian coal, other suppliers filled thegap. Mongolia became China’s leading supplier of met coal, eventhough its exports were hampered by pandemic-related restrictions
at the Mongolia-China border. As a result, US, Canadian andRussian met coal made up a greater share of China’s imports.

Mt

China’s monthly y-o-y met coal import changes by origin
country, 2020-2021

We expect China to remain the world’s primary importer of met coalin 2021, even though it appears set to register a decline of 8 Mt(-10%) this year. China’s lower imports result from twocompounding factors: while falling steel production since July has
reduced its coking coal needs, the country has remained firm in its
ban on Australian coal despite record-high domestic coking coalprices and arbitrage opportunities.

4

0

-4

-8

Meanwhile, other countries’ met coal imports are rising as theireconomies and steel production recover from the 2020 downturn.
Considerable increases are being recorded in Korea (+6 Mt) andJapan (+4 Mt).

Australia

RussiaMongolia

US

CanadaOther

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Leading up to 2024, we expect the imports of advanced economies
such as Japan, Korea and European countries – as well as China –PAGE | 65

IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

TradeCoal 2021

Australia remains the leading exporter of met coal by far
Met coal exports are estimated to rise ~3 Mt (+1.0%) in 2021, with
Australia, by far the world's largest met coal exporter, responsible
for the bulk of the increase. Australia’s anticipated 3-Mt export
expansion in 2021 is rather small, but the destination of its met coalexports has changed dramatically. While one-quarter of Australia’s
met coal exports were destined for China in 2020, in 2021 it had tofind other buyers. It exported more met coal to India in particular,
but Japan, Korea and Europe also received more Australian coal.

owner’s strategy, the country has all necessary mining, rail andshipping capacity in place.
We therefore expect total global met coal exports to increase to346 Mt in 2024.

Mt

Australia’s monthly met coal exports, 2020-2021
10
5

Looking forward to 2024, US and Canadian met coal exports are
forecast to remain roughly stable, as we do not expect thesecountries to increase their production in the short term to takeadvantage of rising demand. The main met coal suppliers to benefit
from rising imports are Australia (+9 Mt), Russia (+5 Mt), Mongolia(+7 Mt) and Mozambique (+3 Mt).

0
-5
- 10

All these countries have potential to increase their exports in the
short term, either by expanding their production capacity (e.g.
Australia and Russia) or by removing constraints that currently
hinder export expansion (Mongolia). Mozambique’s increase
represents an almost doubling of its exports between 2021 and
2024, although it must be noted that Vale’s assets in the country arefor sale. While future exports will essentially depend on the new

China
India
Other

Japan
Southeast Asia

South Korea
EuropeIEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 66

IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

TradeCoal 2021

Driven by India, met coal trade continues to expand
Met coal export changes, 2020-2024

350

Mt

350

340

340

330

330

320

320

310

310

300

300

290

290

280

2020

2021

China

India

Japan

Other Asia

EuropeRest of world

Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes..

280

2024

Korea

2020

2021

2024

CanadaAustralia

RussiaMongolia

Mozambique

United States

Rest of world
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Mt

Met coal import changes, 2020-2024

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

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Prices and costs

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

PAGE | 69

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PricesPrices and costs

Coal 2021

China’s policies, supply disruptions and gas prices drove coal prices to record highs in 2021
Newcastle free on board (FOB) prices for thermal coal with acalorific value (CV) of 6 000 kcal/kg had fallen to a 14-year low at
USD 46.5/t in late August 2020 but then recovered (and almost
quintupled) within 14 months to USD 230/t in October 2021 – thehighest price ever recorded. Coking coal prices followed a similar
trend: after falling below USD 100/t at the end of 2020, theyrebounded to more than USD 390/t in October 2021, also a record
high. After peaking, thermal coal prices eased in November,
dropping by 40%, whereas met coal prices remain very high.

Tight global gas supplies and an even sharper rise in gas prices
further raised demand for thermal coal, as coal remained more
affordable in many regions. On the supply side, output wasconstrained by several disruptions: heavy rainfalls in Indonesia,
floods in North China and storms in Australia. At the same time,logistical problems and pandemic-related restrictions delayed theloading and unloading of ships, causing freight rates to rise.

Spot prices for thermal coal started recovering in the third quarterof 2020 after supply cutbacks were made to adjust production to
reduced pandemic-level demand and China began importing more
for prewinter stockage. Demand also rose with the beginning of theNorthern Hemisphere’s heating season, and weather events suchas China’s cold snap December 2020 further boosted thermal coalconsumption and also disrupted the transport of coal from Inner
Mongolia to demand centres on the coast.
Thermal coal prices continued to rise in the first five months of2021, then began to surge in May as supplies were unable to keep
pace with strong demand in China. When Chinese domestic prices
began to climb, international markets followed. Likewise, in Octoberwhen a combination of higher production and lower demand in
China pushed prices down, the effect was felt worldwide.
PAGE | 70

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Coking coal prices collapsed in 2020 due to weak global steel
production and poor economic outlooks during the first wave of theCovid-19 pandemic, and they did not recover until end of the year.
Prices for Australian metallurgical (met) coal came under additionalpressure due to the Chinese-Australian dispute over coal trading.
Spot prices for coking coal rose to USD 157/t at the beginning of2021 but fell back to the low level of ~USD 110/t within the firstquarter as low steel production in 2020 had left high coking coalstocks. Prices increased again in mid-2021 as demand recovered inIndia and as Australia’s supplies became tight because of weather
conditions, cleared inventories and low freight availability. Even
though China’s steel production fell considerably in the third quarter,
coking coal prices soared to record highs because of domestic
supply constraints. In October 2021, one tonne of coking coal in the
Dalian Commodity Exchange was worth up to USD 600, the highest
price ever recorded.

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

After two years of decline, coal prices rebound to all-time highs

USD/tMarker prices for different types of coal, 2019-2021
400

300

200

100

0
Jan 19Apr 19Jul 19Oct 19Australian prime hard coking (FOB)

Jan 20

Apr 20Jul 20

Oct 20Australian low-volatile PCI (FOB)

Jan 21

Apr 21

Jul 21

Oct 21

Newcastle steam coal (FOB)
IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: FOB = free on board. PCI = pulverised coal injection.

PAGE | 71

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Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Supply disruptions underpinned coal price hikes
obligations for more than 30 mining companies to limit coal exports.
This intensified supply scarcity in East Asian seaborne coal markets
and drove prices up in August and September 2021.

While strong demand growth has been the main driver of surging
coal prices, supply issues have also played a role. In the second
half of 2021, as coal production and logistics disruptions around theglobe tightened coal supplies and made it difficult for suppliers to
get their coal to market, prices rose sharply in the face of declining
stocks and high demand.
In China, thermal coal production decreased and coal transports tocoastal provinces were delayed by heavy rainfalls and flooding inNorth China in July, August and October 2021. Furthermore,
following a series of accidents, safety regulations were tightened
and mining operations were interrupted more frequently for safety
reasons. At the same time, pandemic-related restrictions hampered
coal supplies. Coking coal imports from Mongolia, already low due
to pandemic containment measures, were suspended for a week inAugust after several truck drivers tested positive for Covid-19. Plus,
Chinese ports require foreign ships to quarantine for 7 to 21 days,
and some ports have also been partially or fully shut down, delaying
ship loading and unloading and raising coal freight rates in Asia.

Furthermore, the 6.5-Mtpa Moranbah North coal mine was closed
between February and August 2021 due to elevated gas readings,
and in March, storms and severe flooding disrupted coal production,transportation and exports in New South Wales. The Grosvenor
mine, with a capacity of 5 Mtpa, stopped mining between May andAugust after an explosion, and Covid-19 outbreaks have been
disrupting supplies since August (e.g. the 7-Mtpa Boggabri coalmine had to be shut down for a week in August after a worker tested
positive). Plus, the Government of Queensland closed its borders toboth international and interstate arrivals, making the recruitment ofIndonesian coal exporters have not been able to fill China’s supply
gap. Heavy rainfalls in the coal-rich regions of Kalimantan andSumatra constrained coal production in 2021 and even forced
several producers to declare force majeure in the third quarter of theyear. Low heavy-equipment availability also limited the ramping up
of coal production, so to secure the country’s own domestic supply,
Indonesian authorities called for compliance of domestic market
PAGE | 72

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Meanwhile, Australian exporters struggled to raise production as aresult of strategic decisions, weather conditions and problems
related to the Covid‑19 pandemic. Because of the premium on highquality coal, producers focused on production in this segment, withthe result that total coal output is in fact lower when the yield of thewashing process is considered. Several weather-related events
have adversely affected both Australia’s export and production
capacities. At the Port of Newcastle, a storm that blew a shiploader
off its rails reduced export capacity by 1.25 Mt/month from
November 2020 to the end of July 2021. A second shiploader wasinoperative for two weeks in March 2021, forcing all coal exports togo through Newcastle’s Port Waratah Coal Services (PCWS).

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

new workers difficult. Indeed, a shortage of skilled workers is thenumber-one concern at the moment. Last, a recent derailment on
the 15-Mtpa Moura coal rail line constrained Australia’s exports.

maintenance, train derailments and civil unrest. In Canada, Teck
Resources’ four open-pit coking coal mines in the Elk Valley have
had significant logistical disruptions due to wildfires. At Port Vanino,
one of Russia's largest ports (it handled 23 Mt of coal in 2020), a
fire destroyed a conveyor belt in October, forcing SUEK to declare
force majeure for coal loading. In Colombia, the heaviest rains in a
decade complicated Drummond's coal exports in October.

PAGE | 73

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Other supply-side disruptions include a partial closure of the UnitedStates’ largest coal mining complex, Sugar Camp, in August, byorder of the US Mine Safety and Health Administration, as well as
rail and port logistics disruptions in South Africa due to inadequate
Selected major coal supply disruptions, 2021

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

European coal prices are increasing considerably as gas prices offset rising carbon prices
The Argus/McCloskey’s Coal Price Index 11 (API) 2, which tracks
cost, insurance and freight (CIF) prices in Europe, was for a longtime lower than the API4, which charts Richards Bay FOB prices.
This trend began when South African exports shifted from Europe toAsia. In winter 2019/2020, when demand in Asia was high, API4
spot prices were significantly higher than European API2 prices.
However, API4 prices fell sharply when the Covid-19 pandemic
impacted Asian coal demand in the first half of 2020. They wereclose to but still above those of the API2, but at the end of 2020 theprice spread increased again. The API2 spot price began climbing
in June 2021, and in July it surpassed the API4, breaking the trendof recent years.

support for the EU emissions allowance price. Following China’s
dynamics, prices went down in November from October peaks.

USD/t

Thermal coal (6 000 kcal/kg) price markers, 2018-2021

250
200
150
100
50

The API2 price finds strong support from a natural gas shortage inEurope. Although carbon prices have reached record highs of
EUR 80/tCO2, rising gas prices are provoking a power generation
switch, back from gas to coal. Taken together, limited emissions
allowances and tight coal and gas supplies are creating a positive
feedback loop. While restricted access to EU emissions allowances
has boosted gas demand, tight supplies have caused gas prices torise so high that they are fully offsetting the effects of carbon pricing.
This in turn has driven up coal demand and prices, providing0
Jan 18 Jul 18 Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 Jul 20 Jan 21 Jul 21
API2

API4
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Note: API = Argus/McCloskey’s Coal Price Index.
Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

Index prices for international physical and derivative coal markets.
PAGE | 74

IEA. All rights reserved.

11

300

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Chinese consumers continue to pay a premium for coal
policymakers, who must balance support for domestic production
against the economic attractiveness of lower import prices.

China’s policies to rein in imports have led to spreads between coalprices in China and the Pacific Basin. For some years now, themain driver has been China’s import quotas, of which the exact
terms and volumes are not disclosed by official sources. Morerecently, its ban on Australian coal has further raised the premium
Chinese consumers pay for coal.

Price arbitrage in China, domestic vs imported coal,
2019-2021
USD/t

400
350

In 2019, domestic thermal coal prices (Qinhuangdao FOB) were
14% above international prices (South China cost and freight) on
average. This price spread rose further when China stopped
importing coal from Australia in April 2020, widening it to USD 21/t
or 38% in 2020.

300
250
200
150

In January 2021, the price spread jumped to USD 54/t due to highdomestic coal demand for power generation as well as heating
during an exceptionally cold winter in China. Shortly afterwards,
however, the domestic coal price fell sharply and the price spreadshrank to USD 4/t as demand decreased with milder temperatures
and the Chinese New Year holidays in February. In the second
quarter of 2021, both Chinese domestic and international coalprices rose again, and in mid-October the price spread spiked at
USD 87/t, a relative premium of about 30%.

100
50
0
Jan 19Jul 19Jan 20Jul 20Jan 21

Jul 21

Domestic minus imported coal price in South China
Qinhuangdao FOB incl. VAT, etc. (5 500 kcal/kg)
South China CFR incl. VAT (5 500 kcal/kg)

This price spread signals arbitrage opportunities for Chinese
traders, but they were not able to exploit them due to China’s import
restrictions. This situation increases pressure for China’s

IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

PAGE | 75

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: FOB = free on board. CFR = cost and freight. VAT = value-added tax.

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Segmentation by coal quality in Asia continues
Since late 2020, prices for both coal qualities have increased again
due to a cold winter in northeastern Asia and recovery of the global
economy. Supply shortages in China and India occurred in the third
quarter of 2021, sending both prices upwards. The link between thetwo coal market segments has further diminished, which is reflected
in a more volatile price spread between the two.

Thermal coal, traded in the Pacific Basin, can be categorised by its
calorific value (CV). Although there is potential for substitution
among the various coal qualities, their differences designate
separate market segments.
In 2020, high-CV coal (> 5 700 kcal/kg) made up less than half ofthermal coal exports to the Asia Pacific region. Australia held thelargest market share (44%), with ~86% of its thermal coal exports
being high-CV. The main importers were Japan, China, Korea andChinese Taipei.

USD/t

Thermal coal FOB price markers for different qualities of coal,
2019-2021

Low-CV coal (< 4 500 kcal/kg) represented about one-quarter ofcoal exports to the Pacific Basin. The largest exporter is Indonesia,
which accounted for 96% of global low-CV thermal coal exports in
2020, and the primary importers of its coal were China and India.

300

+200%

250

+150%

200
150

+100%

100

In 2019, mild winter conditions and low gas prices during the global
economic slowdown put downward pressure on Australian high-CV
coal prices, causing the relative price premium to fall from 200% toaround 100% within half a year. Although China's ban on Australiancoal imports has narrowed the gap, the relative price premium did
not change significantly as Australian exporters found new buyers inIndia, South Korea and Viet Nam. Low-CV coal prices also fell as
demand in India slumped in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

+50%

50
0
Jan 19Jul 19Jan 20Jul 20Jan 21

Jul 21+0%

Newcastle (FOB, 6 000 kcal/kg)
Indonesia (FOB, 4 200 kcal/kg)
Price premium for high-CV coal (right axis)
IEA. All rights reserved.
Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.
PAGE | 76

IEA. All rights reserved.

Note: FOB = free on board.

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Strong backwardation does not encourage investment
API2 (European CIF) forward price curves show strong short- andmedium-term backwardation (i.e. when spot prices are higher thanforward prices). Meanwhile, the API4 (South African FOB) pricecurve shows a contango (opposite to backwardation) until
December 2021, with strong backwardation afterwards. Whileforward curves were flat in the first months of 2021, backwardation
increased with surging spot prices until mid-October.

This price backwardation does not offer incentives for investment in
new production capacity that would take several years to realise.

USD/t

API2 and API4 spot prices and forward curves, 2020-2024

The European and Asian markets have become disconnected inrecent years, as the API2 price (which is a CIF price) has fallen well
below the API4 price (an FOB price). However, due to rising coaldemand in Europe in 2021 because of high gas prices, a tight global
coal supply and high freight rates, short-term API2 forward prices(t+3 months) have been above those of the API4 since July 2021.

API2

300
250
200
150
100
50
0

API4

USD/t

300
250
200
150
100
50
0

In October 2021, market participants expected energy supply
bottlenecks to be resolved more quickly in Europe than in Asia,
resulting in higher forward prices for South African thermal coal for
the winter, while Europe’s forward coal prices fell. As of midNovember, API2 prices were already below API4 prices again,
signalling a volatility episode in Europe. For 2022, a decline in bothcoal price indices is expected, yet anticipated prices for 2024 are
more than USD 10/t higher than what was expected at the
beginning of 2021.

Spot

Apr 2021

Aug 2021

Oct 2021

Nov 2021

IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 77

IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Price stability varies by region
coal consumed in the United States in 2020 was imported.
Interestingly, however, market tightness in United States is also
pushing up coal spot prices in its domestic market.

A country’s coal price volatility depends on how much its coalmarket is exposed to the global seaborne market, and on conditionsin its domestic market. FOB prices in countries such as Indonesia,
Australia and South Africa are correlated to a certain extent, as they
are determined by global coal demand and supply development andare strongly influenced by China. Therefore, coal prices in countries
relying mostly on imported coal are determined by prices set by
China and major exporters. In markets such as India and the UnitedStates, however, coal prices depend more on domestic dynamics.

In India, the National Coal Index (NCI) is a good gauge of coalprices for the various channels and markets. Since most coal is
produced domestically and sold at regulated prices, the index reacts
to global coal prices to a small extent only, compared with othercoal market prices.

Indexed thermal coal price markers, 2020-2021
Index

In 2020, the major price markers for seaborne coal declined 30-40%
before rebounding and more than tripling in 2021. In China, ~30% ofcoal for power generation is contracted by the year and ~40% is by
the month, with the balance procured through spot markets, whichhave recorded large increases. In contrast, domestic coal prices inIndia and the United States were largely stable and decreased lessthan 10% in 2020. Although prices in India had risen ~22% byAugust 2021, the increase was still well below that of seaborne
thermal coal. In the United States, the price for coal delivered to
power plants had risen only 5% by October 2021. Even though US
coal consumption expanded sharply in 2021 as a result of rising gas
prices, the country’s coal prices hardly changed because existing
mines and infrastructure were able to meet the increased demandand distribute higher production volumes. Clearly, domestic US coalconsumption does not depend on imports: in fact, less than 1% of

400
300
200
100
0

Newcastle FOB
US coal for power production
NCI (India) Non-Coking

Qinhuangdao FOB
Richards Bay FOB
IEA. All rights reserved.

Sources: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes; U.S. Energy and Information
Administration; Ministry of Coal (2021), National Coal Index.

PAGE | 78

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: FOB = free on board. NCI = National Coal Index. Prices in China show large
regional differences, but different regional prices follow similar trends.

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

PAGE | 79

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Costs

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Falling prices in 2019 and 2020 reduced coal supply costs, as well as profitability
Met coal supply costs are typically higher than for thermal coal. As
met coal mines are more often underground and on average smaller
than thermal coal mines, their mining costs are higher. Furthermore,
preparation costs for met coal are higher than for thermal coal.

Coal prices recovered in 2021: between January and October, theaverage FOB price for Australian high-CV thermal coal was~USD 129/t. Despite rising costs (e.g. due to high fuel prices), theprofitability of coal mines has increased significantly. Producers who
reduced their output in 2020 are trying to increase production again,
and some of the closed mines have reopened or are about to.

As supply costs for most coking coal mines decreased from 2019 to2020, the average FOB price for Australian coking coal fell 37% to~USD 111/t. Since supply costs for coking coal fell slightly, theprofitability of met coal production decreased.

USD/t

Indicative FOB hard coking coal supply curve, 2020, andaverage FOB marker prices

The supply cost curve for both high- and low-CV thermal coalveered downwards from 2019 to 2020. Average supply costs
decreased in all countries, particularly Indonesia, Australia andSouth Africa, as fuel and labour costs fell. Total thermal coal exports
also decreased in 2020, creating a shorter supply cost curve, at theexpense of higher-cost producers, with Colombia’s output especiallydeclining strongly.

250
200

Australian prime HCC (FOB, 2021)

150

Australian prime HCC (FOB, 2019)
Australian prime HCC (FOB, 2020)

100
50
0

25

50

Australia
United States
Mongolia

The average FOB price for Australian thermal coal with a CV of
6 000 kcal/kg fell 24% from 2019, to ~USD 58/t in 2020. Some coal
is contracted at a fixed price in the Pacific markets, but the
profitability of thermal coal mines contracting at indexed prices
declined in 2020, and some mines even went into deficit, leading to
supply cuts and mine closures.

75

100

125 150
Mt
Indonesia
CanadaRest of world

175

200

225

RussiaMozambique
2019
IEA. All rights reserved.

Sources: Adapted from CRU (2021), Metallurgical Cost Model (database);
IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.
PAGE | 80

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: FOB = free on board. HCC = hard coking coal. Cost curves account for variable
production costs, overburden removal, royalties, inland transportation and port usage
fees. The annual average FOB marker price is based on the monthly average index forAustralian prime hard coking coal. The 2021 price is based on the average for JanuaryOctober.

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

2021 was a once-in-a-decade year for coal producers
Indicative FOB low-CV (< 4 500 kcal/kg) thermal coalsupply curve, 2020, and average FOB marker prices

150
125

USD/t

USD/t

Indicative FOB high-CV (> 5 700 kcal/kg) thermal coal supply
curve, 2020, and average FOB marker prices
Newcastle (6 000 kcal/kg, FOB, 2021)

60

100
75

Newcastle (6 000 kcal/kg, FOB, 2019)40

Newcastle (6 000 kcal/kg, FOB, 2020)

50

20

25
0

80

50

100

Australia
United States
Others

150

200

250
Mt

Indonesia
South Africa
2019

300

350

400

Indonesia (4 200 kcal/kg, FOB, 2021)
Indonesia (4 200 kcal/kg, FOB, 2019)
Indonesia (4 200 kcal/kg, FOB, 2020)

0

450

50

100

150

Mt

RussiaColombia

Australia

Indonesia

South Africa

2019

RussiaIEA. All rights reserved.
Notes: FOB = free on board. CV = calorific value. Cost curves account for variable production costs, overburden removal, royalties, inland transportation, and port usage fees. Cost
curves are not adjusted for different qualities of coal. Transportation costs are to the closest port, so the FOB costs for Russian producers in Asia are somewhat higher than shown.
Average annual FOB marker prices are based on the monthly average index for Newcastle/Indonesian steam coal. 2021 prices are based on the average for January-October.

PAGE | 81

IEA. All rights reserved.

Sources: Adapted from CRU (2021), Thermal Cost Model (database); IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes.

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Coal mining input costs are rising sharply
Nominal prices of selected coal mining commodities andinputs, 2019-2021
Index

Coal mining’s cost structure is determined mostly by operating
expenses such as cash costs (e.g. labour, fuel, taxes and royalties)
and transportation expenditures (e.g. for inland transportation, port
fees and seaborne freight). Cost proportions depend on the mining
method, i.e. surface or underground, and can also vary significantly
depending on the producer, country and specific mine location.

220
200
180
160
140

Inputs such as fuel, explosives, tyres and steel products areinternationally traded, so their prices follow global trends. Prices fortyres and explosives have remained stable in recent years, whereas
those of steel products fell in 2019 and 2020 because of trade
friction, demand growth uncertainty and persistent excess
production capacity. Due to global economic recovery and supply
chain constraints since the end of 2020, however, prices for steel
products have been rising significantly, and almost doubled
between January and October 2021 to reach an historic high.

120
100
80
60
40
Jan-19Jul-19Diesel fuelJan-20Explosives

Jul-20Jan-21

Jul-21

Steel products

Tyres

IEA. All rights reserved.

Similarly, diesel fuel prices dropped sharply in the first quarter of2020 when oil demand and prices fell in the wake of the Covid-19
pandemic. By the end of 2020, both oil and diesel prices wererecovering, and they reached 2018 levels in early 2021.

PAGE | 82

IEA. All rights reserved.

Source: US Bureau of Labour Statistics (2021), Producer Price Indexes.

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Opencast mining costs have been more volatile due to higher diesel consumption
Diesel prices have a direct impact on a mine’s operating costs, with
opencast mines being particularly sensitive because they rely on
diesel-fuelled trucks and other equipment. Fuel prices are therefore
an important factor, especially for countries in which opencast
mining predominates (e.g. Indonesia and Colombia). Countries suchas China, where opencast mining represents a smaller fraction of
production (just over 10%), are less affected by fuel price changes.

In 2020, the decline in oil demand caused by the Covid-19
pandemic led to a sharp plunge in diesel prices. The largest drop
was in Indonesia, where prices were more than one-quarter lower
on average than in 2019. When oil prices recovered in 2021, coalmining fuel costs in most countries rose again to close to 2019
levels. The proportional share of fuel costs increased in mostcountries in 2021.

Australia

Colombia

Indonesia

Average fuel costs (left axis)

RussiaSouth Africa United States

2021

2020

2019

2021

2020

0%

2019

0

2021

5%
2020

2
2019

10%

2021

4

2020

15%

2019

6

2021

20%

2020

8

2019

25%

2021

10

2020

30%

2019

12

2021

35%

2020

14

2019

USD/t

Average fuel costs and their share in total coal mining costs in selected countries, 2019-2021

China

Share of fuel costs in total mining costs (right axis)
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 83

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Source: Adapted from CRU (2021), Coal Cost Model (database).

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Labour costs rise again in most countries
Labour cost levels and evolution vary among coal-producing
countries and affect exporter competitiveness. 12 Movements inlabour costs are largely explained by changes in currency exchange
rates. In 2020, labour costs decreased in most countries other thanthe United States because of currency depreciation against the US

dollar, while in 2021 they rose again – due mainly to currency
appreciation against the US dollar. However, the share of labourcosts in total expenses has declined in all countries, while other cost
components have increased more strongly (e.g. diesel and steel
product prices).

Australia

Colombia

Indonesia

Average labour costs (left axis)

RussiaSouth Africa United States

2021

2020

2019

2021

2020

2019

2021

2020

2019

0%

2021

0

2020

10%
2019

5
2021

20%

2020

10

2019

30%

2021

15

2020

40%

2019

20

2021

50%

2020

25

2019

USD/t

Average labour costs and their share in total coal mining costs in selected countries, 2019-2021

China

Share of labour costs in total mining costs (right axis)
IEA. All rights reserved.

12
China is included because its domestic coastal coal trade of more than 700 Mt is comparable with
global trade.

PAGE | 84

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Source: Adapted from CRU (2021), Coal Cost Model (database).

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Loose US monetary policy causes exporting countries' currencies to appreciate
Currency exchange rates can significantly affect a coal exporter’scompetitiveness. While revenue streams from coal are largely
negotiated in US dollars, operating expenses such as labour costs,
railway tariffs, port charges and royalties are settled in local
currencies. Therefore, a local currency depreciation against the US
dollar implies a reduction in operating costs for the producer,
increasing its competitiveness. Currency exchange rates also
influence an importer’s purchasing power and the relativecompetitiveness of imported coal against substitutes such as
domestic lignite or natural gas.

currency more attractive. Inflation and economic risks could prompt
investors to withdraw their money from developing countries, puttingpressure on the currencies of countries such as Indonesia andColombia.

Year-on-year development of selected currencies against the
US dollar, 2019-2021
20%
10%

In 2019 and 2020, most coal exporting countries’ currencies
depreciated against the US dollar due to relatively strong growth in
the United States, weakened global growth and trade friction. Then,in the first half of 2021, the US federal government’s loose monetary
policy prompted the currencies of major coal exporting countries toappreciate against the US dollar. In particular, the currencies ofSouth Africa, Australia and China appreciated as a result of trade
surpluses, but less-competitive coal mining in these countries wasmade up for by soaring coal prices.

0%
-10%
-20%

2019
AUD
CNY

2020
COP
IDR

RUB

2021
ZAR
IEA. All rights reserved.

In the second half of 2021, the US dollar increased in value as theFederal Reserve signals caused interest rates to rise, and as
economic struggles around the globe made investing in US

Source: OECD (2021), Monthly Monetary and Financial Statistics (MEI) exchange
rates (USD monthly averages).
PAGE | 85

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Notes: AUD = Australian dollar. CNY = Chinese yuan renminbi. ZAR = South African
rand. RUB = Russian ruble. IDR = Indonesian rupiah. COP = Colombian peso. 2021
values represent average exchange rates to August 2021 for all currencies except the
AUD, which is to September 2021.

Prices and costs

Coal 2021

Freight rates are rising because global logistics are under pressure
More than 90% of the global coal trade is seaborne and shipped bydry bulk vessels, which are categorised according to theirdeadweight tonnage (dwt). The four main vessel types are
Handysize; Handymax/Supramax; Panamax; and Capesize. The
most-used vessels are the Panamax (60 000 – 80 000 dwt) andCapesize (over 80 000 dwt). Dry bulk shipping costs are based
mainly on fuel prices, while final freight rates are further determinedby supply and demand.

In 2021, freight rates rose sharply as global demand for goods andmaterials increased and supply chains came under pressure.
Furthermore, as part of measures to contain the pandemic, somecoal ports were partially or completely closed, forcing ships to wait
to load and unload and reducing the overall supply of cargocapacity. Freight rates rose to more than USD 40/t on the
Queensland-Rotterdam route, a level that has not been seen since2008.

Coal freight rates for selected routes, 2019-2021
USD/t

The drop in coal and iron ore demand triggered by the Covid-19
pandemic put pressure on freight rates in the first quarter of 2020.
Particularly affected were freight rates for the QueenslandRotterdam and Newcastle-Japan routes, plied mainly by Capesize
vessels. Freight rates from Indonesia to China, where mainly
Panamax vessels are used, were less impacted by the pandemic.
This is partly because grain transport, which also uses mainly
Panamax vessels, was less affected than iron ore shipments.
China’s steel industry rebound caused freight rates to recover by
mid-2020. Another factor, less important but still influential, was
China’s ban on Australian coal, as it redirected Australian coal toother countries, raising distances and travel times, decreasing
shipping capacity supplies and ultimately increasing prices.

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan 19Jul 19Jan 20
Newcastle-Japan

Jul 20Jul 21
Jan 21
Queensland-Rotterdam

Balikpapan-Guangzhou
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PAGE | 86

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Source: IHS Markit (2021), Coal Price Data and Indexes

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

PAGE | 87

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Coal mining projects

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

Progress on export-oriented projects has been slow, with no response to high prices
Investments in export-oriented coal mining projects are underconsideration in a number of countries. However, despite currently
prevailing high coal prices, there are no signs of acceleration inprojects either announced or under construction. Environmental,social and governance considerations, as well as difficulties finding
financing (and even insurance recently) are halting new coaldevelopments. To evaluate evolution in this sector, this reportclassifies projects as either “more advanced” or “less advanced”. 13

projects are in Australia, this information should be treated withcaution because Australia is more transparent in reporting proposedcoal projects than other countries are, particularly Indonesia, whichis the highest source of new production among major exporting
countries. (Please see Annex for a non-exhaustive list of coalmining projects in the major exporting countries.)
Investments in coal-related infrastructure are commonly linked tomining developments. For example, Russia and Mongolia areinvesting in railways, ports and roads to increase their coal exports
in the coming years. Russia – the world’s largest exporter of fossil
fuels – is building new Arctic ports to develop the large, unexploited
coal fields in the region. In Mongolia, a 415-km rail link is underconstruction from the country’s largest coal mine (Tavan Tolgoi) to
the Chinese border. Meanwhile, the Indian company Bravus Mining
and Resources (formerly Adani Mining) is finishing a 189-km railway
in Australia to connect the Carmichael thermal coal mine with theexisting rail network.

All more-advanced projects together amount to an expected
production capacity of ~95 Mtpa. The majority are metallurgical(met) coal projects (70%), even though met coal makes up less than
20% of global coal demand and around one-third of international
trade. Most of the more-advanced projects are in Australia (41%),
Russia (22%) and South Africa (13%). The 2021 pipeline of moreadvanced projects is similar to that of 2020, with only a slightincrease registered because some less-advanced projects haveprogressed while some more-advanced ones were delayed by
Covid-19 pandemic circumstances.
Less-advanced projects represent a total production capacity of
770 Mtpa. While official data indicate that roughly 64% of theseMore-advanced projects have been approved and obtained a final investment decision or are
under construction, while less-advanced projects are at the feasibility or environmental assessment
stage, or they are awaiting approval.
PAGE | 88

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13

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

Australia and Russia lead the way in more-advanced coal mining projects
Capacity of hard coal export mining projects by country and coal grade (Mtpa)

PAGE | 89

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IEA. All rights reserved.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

Metallurgical coal is less affected by clean energy transitions in the short and medium term
Widespread non-coal-based steel production from iron ore is notexpected in the near term, as hydrogen technologies, the mostpromising advancements, are not available at the scale and costrequired. Therefore, met coal ventures represent almost half of
more-advanced coal projects (total met coal production capacity of
more-advanced projects is ~67 Mtpa).

The transfer of assets from large, diversified multinational
companies to smaller national companies is a double-edge sword
for investment. While smaller companies do not receive the samepressure from shareholders to comply with environmental, socialand governance standards, they also have less financial resources
to proceed with new projects.

Coal grade shares in hard coal export mining projects

Even though the market share of thermal coal is triple that of met
coal, investors appear to favour met coal endeavours. While purethermal coal projects make up only 30% (28 Mtpa) of moreadvanced projects, they account for almost half of the lessadvanced ones.

More advanced(95 Mtpa)

Lower interest in thermal coal projects results from their higher risk
and uncertainty linked to climate goals and public opposition. As
substitutes for coal are available for power generation (i.e.
renewables and natural gas), investors are increasingly pushingcompanies to reduce their carbon footprint.

Less advanced(770 Mtpa)

26%
26%

30%
48%

44%

Large coal companies such as BHP, Rio Tinto, Anglo American and
Glencore have announced net zero emissions strategies and areselling their mines or demerging their coal operations. Rio Tinto soldits last coal mine in 2018, BHP has begun to divest itself of its
thermal coal projects, and Anglo American spun-off its thermal coal
operations in South Africa into a new company, Thungela
Resources.

26%

Thermal coal

Met coal

Both

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IEA. All rights reserved.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

High coal prices have prompted mine reopenings rather than new investments
resume coking coal production at the Grand Cache No. 8 open-pit
mine (before closing in March 2020, the mine produced ~1.3 Mtpa).

Several coal mining companies have reopened (or are planning toreopen) mines that were closed when coal prices were low.
According to company announcements, total capacity of at least
22 Mtpa is to be reopened. This strategy of reopening closed mines
rather than investing in new ones is another indication that the
future of coal is not clear. Strong backwardation in the markets (seethe Prices and Costs chapter) is another negative signal forinvestors.

Most coking coal mine reopenings will be in Australia. In early May,
Peabody reopened the 1.8-Mtpa Metropolitan mine after having
closed it at the beginning of January due to low demand. Further
reopenings include the Russell Vale mine and the Cook Colliery,
which were approved to reopen this year. Having ceased production
in 2016, Wollongong’s Russell Vale mine is expected to produce
3.7 Mt of coking coal within five years. The Cook Colliery, owned by
QCoal, has a production potential of 0.5 Mtpa and has been in careand maintenance since late 2019.

At least two thermal coal mines are reopening in South Africa. One
is the Liberty Coal mine, which went into business rescue after its
owner declared bankruptcy in early 2018 and was thereafter bought
and ramped up again to 3 Mtpa by Templar Capital. The second
mine preparing to reopen is Koornfontain, which was closed at theend of 2019 and is now ready to restart with an expected production
capacity of 3 Mtpa, according to owner Black Royalty Minerals.
In Colombia, Colombian Natural Resources plans to restart
operations at the La Francia and El Hatillo coal mines with apotential production capacity of 2 Mtpa by 2022. The company
stopped production and filed for bankruptcy in 2020 due to losses
caused by low coal prices.
Meanwhile, thermal as well as coking coal mines are set to reopenin Canada. In the province of Alberta, Westmoreland plans to restart
its Coal Valley Mine (it produced an average of 3 Mtpa before
operations ceased last year) and CST Coal is awaiting approval to

In the United States, at least two coking coal mines are reopening.
Ramaco’s Berwind coking coal mine (on the Virginia-West Virginia
PAGE | 91

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Meanwhile, MetRes aims to reopen the Millennium and Mavis
Downs met coal mine in Queensland with a production capacity of
1.2 Mtpa in July 2022 (the mine was shut down in March 2020). The
2-Mtpa Burton coal mine, purchased along with the New Lenton
coal deposit by Bowen Coking Coal when it acquired Lenton Joint
Venture, is to be reopened in 2022. The mine was closed in 2016 bythen-owner Peabody because of low coal prices. Most recently,
Bowen Coking Coal announced its intention to reopen the Bluff PCI
mine in Queensland in the first quarter of 2022. The 1.2-Mtpa mine
started production in 2019 but was placed on care and maintenancein December 2020.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

border) was partially closed in July 2020 but restarted in 2021.
Ongoing expansion should enable the mine to ramp up to
production capacity of 0.75 Mtpa by the second quarter of 2022.
The second project is Peabody’s Shoal Creek coking coal mine in
Alabama, which closed in October 2020 and is about to reopen. In
2019 the mine produced 2.1 Mt of coal.

25

20

15

United States
South Africa
Colombia

10

CanadaAustralia

50
IEA. All rights reserved.

PAGE | 92

IEA. All rights reserved.

Mtpa

Capacity of mine reopenings per country

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

Carmichael extracted its first coal this year after more than a decade’s development
In 2021, the Australian government approved Whitehaven’s Vickery
Extension Project, Glencore’s Mangoola mine expansion and
Wollongong Coal’s plan to reopen the Russell Vale Colliery. These
were the first approvals after the Federal Court of Australia ruled in
May that the environment minister must take damage caused byclimate change into account when deciding whether to approve newcoal mines or expansions. At the centre of the court’s ruling was
Whitehaven’s Vickery mine extension, which could raise production
by 5.5 Mtpa to 10 Mtpa. As for Russell Vale Colliery, which was put
in care and maintenance in 2015, expansion will mean coking coalproduction of ~1 Mtpa.

In June 2021, Bravus (formerly Adani Mining) announced that the
10-Mtpa Carmichael coal project had extracted its first coal, and in
October it declared that the mine’s first coal shipment would takeplace by the end of the year. Carmichael is the first operating minein the Galilee Basin and the first large pure thermal coal project tobe realised in Australia since commissioning of the Mount Pleasantmine in 2018. Since its launch in 2009, the project has obtained
more than 100 licences, permits and approvals but has also faced
strong opposition from environmental groups, leading to several
legal disputes. Adani, which is the owner of Abbot Point coalterminal, also launched its own rail business in 2020. Carmichaelmine’s production will therefore be exported via a dedicated 189-km
rail line connecting it with the Abbot Point coal terminal.
United Wambo – a joint venture between Glencore and Peabody –began mining coal in July 2020 while its construction activities
continue. The project has an initial capacity of 6.5 Mtpa and plans toramp up to 10 Mtpa of thermal and coking coal production. The New
South Wales Independent Planning Commission approved the
project in 2019 on condition that its coal be exported only tocountries that have signed on to the Paris Agreement or are taking
comparable measures to reduce GHG emissions.
More than one-third of the world’s more-advanced coal mining
projects are in Australia, mainly Queensland, with a total capacity of
40.7 Mtpa. A capacity of 17 Mtpa may be operational by 2022.
PAGE | 93

IEA. All rights reserved.

Other projects in Australia were less successful. The Independent
Planning Commission decided against Posco’s Hume Coal Project,South32’s Dendrobium Extension and Kepco’s Bylong Project.
While Posco will not appeal the court's decision and Kepco is
undecided, South32 applied for a judicial review and the project has
been classified as State Significant Infrastructure, which gives it asecond chance. In August 2021, the New South Wales Court ofAppeal confirmed its rejection of the 6.5-Mtpa Bylong Project, as theventure faces significant community opposition.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

Russia looks eastwards as it invests in coal mines and infrastructure
Russia aims to expand its domestic coal production 50% and its
exports from ~217 Mtpa in 2019 to 380 Mtpa by 2035. It adopted
these objectives in June 2020 as part of its Energy Strategy to2035. At least 21.3 Mtpa of capacity expansions are categorised as
more advanced, and most of these projects are expected to
produce coking coal.

under construction at Kola Bay near Murmansk. This terminal is tostart operating in 2024 once the 45-km rail link from Vykhodnoy iscomplete. The port will handle vessels of up to 150 000 dwt andoperate year-round. Annual shipping capacity will be ~18 Mtpa.
To increase coal exports to China and other areas of Asia, Russia is
expanding export capacity in its Far East region. Several expansion
projects have been announced for the Port of Vanino, Russia's
second-largest Pacific coal port. Kolmar is enlarging a new coalterminal from 12 Mtpa to 24 Mtpa by 2022, A-Property plans to build
a new terminal with a capacity of 30 Mtpa by 2024, and SUEK
wants to expand the capacity of its bulk terminal by 16 Mtpa to
40 Mtpa in the same period.

As Russia’s export expansion will require new rail lines and coalexport terminals, several investments in both railway and port
infrastructure have been announced in recent years.
Diminishing Arctic Ocean ice is allowing Russia to develop new
resource extraction projects in the Arctic. For instance, in the Far
East Arctic Krasnoyarsk region, the Russian company AEON isdeveloping the Syradasayskoye coal field on the Taimyr Peninsula,with plans to invest RUB 45 billion by 2025. Construction of the new
Yenisei port began in early 2021 and is expected to be completed
within two years. It will handle vessels of over 100 000 dwt andallow the export of up to 7 Mtpa of coking coal from the Syradasays
coal field to Asia. The project includes an open-pit coal mine with aproduction capacity of 5 Mtpa in the first phase and 10 Mtpa in thesecond phase.
Not far away, Port Dikson is being upgraded with a new coalterminal (10-Mtpa capacity), and the Lavna coal terminal is currently
PAGE | 94

IEA. All rights reserved.

Russia is also investing in new rail lines to the east. In particular, thecapacity of the main railway links, the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM)
and the Trans-Siberian Railway network, is to be increased by
55 Mtpa to 180 Mtpa at a total cost of ~USD 9.8 billion. A second
railway line on a 340-km segment of the BAM is already underconstruction. In addition, in March 2021 Russia also approved a
USD 9.6-billion investment in a new 1 000-km railway from the
Sakha Republic to China, but a timeline has not yet beenannounced.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

South Africa is struggling to maintain production
site’s logistical capabilities. Life extensions of the Leeuwpan and
Mafube mines were completed.

South Africa
After several years of underinvestment, maintaining current capacity
will be a challenge for South Africa, even though a handful of mining
projects for export and domestic consumption are proceeding. In
fact, long-term supply contracts have already been concluded forsome mines intended to serve domestic consumption.

The pipeline of projects for South Africa also includes 11.9 Mtpa of
more-advanced projects, all of them to produce thermal coal. The
only one targeting both met and thermal coal is the greenfield
Makhado. Construction of Makhado can start promptly, withproduction of its first coal scheduled for 2022.

Wescoal’s Moabsvelden coal mine, constructed to meet domestic
demand, sold its first coal in March 2021 and is expected to produce
up to 3 Mtpa at full capacity. Wescoal and Eskom (South Africa’s
public electricity utility) finalised a ten-year coal supply contract inJuly 2019. Meanwhile, construction of Seriti’s New Largo coal mine
began in 2020. At full capacity, it is expected to produce up to
12 Mtpa of thermal coal. It will initially supply Eskom’s Kusile power
station but could also become an export mine. While Exxaro
originally planned to supply the Kusile power plant from a new
3.9-Mtpa coal mine, in February 2021 it announced that it will nolonger be investing in thermal coal assets.

Regarding Boikarabelo, once a 30-Mtpa project, financing cannot be
secured, even though it has been downsized to 6 Mtpa, reducing its
chances to go ahead.

Botswana

Regarding export-oriented mines, Exxaro, South Africa’s largest
coal mining firm, completed further expansion projects in 2020. The
Grootegeluk 6 venture increased the Grootegeluk mine’s production
capacity by 1.7 Mtpa, and a new rapid-loadout station increased the

PAGE | 95

IEA. All rights reserved.

In July 2020, Minergy exported the first coal from its Masama coalmine in Botswana to South Africa. Meanwhile, Maatla Resources,
another private company, started construction of the 2.5-Mtpa
Mmamabula coal project. In addition, MCM plans to open its new
1-Mtpa Motheo open-pit mine later this year. Botswana alsoannounced plans to develop six new coal mines and a rail link forexports to South Africa. The railway line is essential for access toexport markets, as the country is land-locked among South Africa,
Zimbabwe and Namibia.

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

There is still some interest in coking coal in US, Canada and even in Europe
has been postponed from 2020 to end of 2025. While the provinceof Alberta eased restrictions on open-pit coal mining in June 2020 toboost its economy, the federal government has rejected the
4.5-Mtpa Grassy Mountain coking coal project. Furthermore, the
New Elan hard coking coal project (4.5 Mtpa) is on hold because
provincial and federal policies do not offer strong enoughguarantees. Canada’s largest proposed new project is an extensionof Teck’s Fording River coking coal mine in British Columbia tomaintain its 10-Mtpa production capacity.

United States
Two new coking coal mines have started operations in West
Virginia. The Lynn Branch, owned by Alpha Metallurgical
Resources, began production in 2020 and could soon reach its full
capacity of up to 1.2 Mtpa. Arch Coal’s Leer South coking coal mine
commenced production in August 2021, with full production capacityof 3.6 Mtpa to be reached by the beginning of 2022.
In the United States, projects with an aggregated production
capacity of 7.7 Mtpa are categorised as more advanced. All of them
are currently coking coal projects, including North Central
Resources’ Longview coal mine, which is supposed to start
production at the end of 2022. Its annual production capacity isscheduled to be 4 Mtpa, making it one of the largest US coking coalmines.

EuropeWhile EU countries are committed to phasing out coal-fired power
generation, they still consider coking coal a critical raw material.
Some small, less-advanced projects are therefore underdevelopment, but no significant progress was made last year. The
United Kingdom’s most advanced project, the Woodhouse Colliery,
was put under review this year by the UK Secretary of State for
Housing, Communities and Local Government. Meanwhile, someother projects have been cancelled.

On the infrastructure side, Norfolk Southern Co. announced that it isincreasing its intermodal terminal capacity in Chicago.

CanadaPAGE | 96

IEA. All rights reserved.

Projects currently under development in Canada focus primarily on
coking coal production. First production from its only moreadvanced project, the Crown Mountain mine in British Columbia,

Coal mining projects

Coal 2021

Unlike Colombia and Mozambique, Indonesia and Mongolia are expanding export capacities
Indonesia

Colombia

Most of Indonesia’s proposed coal mining projects are categorised
as less advanced and focus on thermal coal production. Lack oftransparency in most Indonesian projects makes comparison withother countries difficult. Cokal’s Bumi Barito Mineral project is the
only more-advanced project we identified. Cokal announced that the
project has received full funding, and its first coal delivery is
anticipated for December 2021. At full capacity, the mine is
expected to produce 2 Mtpa of coking and PCI coal.

Reopening of the La Francia and El Hatillo mines are Colombia’s
only more-advanced coal mining projects, with all other proposed
ventures classified as less advanced. Glencore’s subsidiary
Prodeco, which idled its mines in March 2020, has begun tosurrender its three main mining licences now that Colombia’s
national mining agency has accepted its initially rejected request.

Mozambique
All Mozambique’s proposed coal mining projects are categorised asless advanced.

Mongolia
Mongolia is focusing on building new railway connections toimprove its coal transport capabilities and eventually gain access to
the Asia Pacific market through an intermediate country. Its mostadvanced project is a new 415-km rail link from Tavan Tolgoi’s coalmine to the Chinese border. Tavan Tolgoi plans to raise a
USD 700-million bond to finance its endeavours, and it obtained its
first domestic bond tranche of USD 200 million in April 2021. In
total, Tavan Tolgoi aims to invest USD 3.4 billion between 2021 and2025.

PAGE | 97

IEA. All rights reserved.

Vale is currently preparing to sell the 11-Mtpa Moatize Coal Mine,but it is unclear how this will affect the proposal to expand themine’s capacity to 15 Mtpa. Other significant projects such as the
15-Mtpa Benga Mine expansion and the 12-Mtpa Zambeze Mine
project, both owned by the Indian consortium ICVL, did notannounce any progress in 2021.

Annexes

Coal 2021

PAGE | 98

IEA. All rights reserved.

AnnexesAnnexes

Coal 2021

TablesTotal coal consumption (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

CAAGR
2021-2024

Asia Pacific

5 878

5 807

6 110

6 430

-1.2%

5.2%

1.7%

China

3 950

3 971

4 130

4 266

0.5%

4.0%

1.1%

India

1 014

931

1 056

1 185

-8.2%

13.4%

3.9%

Japan

187

185

184

171

-1.3%

-0.3%

-2.4%

Southeast Asia

355

357

370

420

0.5%

3.8%

4.3%

North America

577

466

541

462

-19.2%

16.1%

-5.1%

United States

529

434

508

431

-18.1%

17.2%

-5.3%

Central and South America

54

48

55

46

-11.3%

13.6%

-5.5%

Europe

687

581

632

508

-15.3%

8.6%

-7.0%

European Union

483

390

435

334

-19.3%

11.5%

-8.5%

Middle East

13

12

12

8

-2.2%

-5.8%

-13.4%

Eurasia

372

343

347

363

-7.9%

1.4%

1.5%

Russia

238

223

227

237

-6.3%

2.1%

1.5%

Africa

220

198

209

214

-10.1%

5.7%

0.7%

World

7 801

7 456

7 906

8 031

-4.4%

6.0%

0.5%

PAGE | 99

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Thermal coal and lignite consumption (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

CAAGR
2021-2024

Asia Pacific

4 954

4 894

5 206

5 483

-1.2%

6.4%

1.7%

China

3 206

3 222

3 410

3 524

0.5%

5.8%

1.1%

India

942

875

990

1 105

-7.1%

13.2%

3.7%

Japan

141

142

138

123

1.3%

-3.4%

-3.6%

Southeast Asia

341

341

354

400

-0.1%

3.7%

4.2%

North America

552

445

515

434

-19.3%

15.7%

-5.6%

United States

511

420

491

413

-17.8%

16.7%

-5.6%

Central and South America

39

35

40

30

-10.9%

14.4%

-9.1%

Europe

617

520

563

434

-15.8%

8.4%

-8.4%

European Union

425

340

380

274

-20.1%

11.9%-10.4%

Middle East

9

9

8

4

-4.3%

-10.0%-23.0%

Eurasia

279

258

260

271

-7.8%

1.0%

1.3%

Russia

162

153

156

160

-5.3%

1.9%

0.9%

Africa

216

196

207

212

-9.4%

5.6%

0.7%

World

6 667

6 356

6 800

6 867

-4.7%

7.0%

0.3%

PAGE | 100

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Metallurgical coal consumption (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

CAAGR
2021-2024

Asia Pacific

924

913

904

947

-1.1%

-1.0%

1.6%

China

744

749

720

742

0.7%

-3.9%

1.0%

India

72

56

66

80

-21.8%

16.7%

6.6%

Japan

47

42

47

48

-9.1%

10.2%

1.0%

Southeast Asia

13

15

17

19

15.3%

7.6%

5.4%

North America

25

21

26

28

-16.5%

24.0%

2.6%

United States

18

13

17

19

-25.1%

30.3%

2.7%

Central and South America

15

13

15

16

-12.2%

11.5%

3.2%

Europe

70

62

68

74

-11.4%

10.2%

2.9%

European Union

58

51

55

60

-13.4%

9.1%

2.9%

Middle East

4

4

4

4

3.1%

4.3%

1.5%

Eurasia

93

85

87

92

-8.5%

2.4%

2.0%

Russia

76

70

71

77

-8.2%

2.4%

2.7%

Africa4

2

2

3-47.1%

9.8%

2.3%

World

1 134

1 100

1 106

1 164

-3.0%

0.5%

1.7%

PAGE | 101

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Total coal production (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

CAAGR
2021-2024

Asia Pacific

5 760

5 729

5 939

6 182

-0.5%

3.7%

1.3%

China

3 724

3 764

3 925

3 982

1.1%

4.3%

0.5%

India

756

764

793

955

1.0%

3.7%

6.4%

Australia

507

468

470

477

-7.7%

0.3%

0.5%

Indonesia

601

564

576

570

-6.1%

2.2%

-0.4%

North America

706

540

584

536

-23.5%

8.2%

-2.8%

United States

641

485

528

484

-24.4%

8.9%

-2.9%

Central and South America

92

56

73

68

-39.4%

31.5%

-2.5%

Europe

531

446

475

378

-15.9%

6.4%

-7.3%

European Union

374

301

329

247

-19.3%

9.2%

-9.1%

Middle East

2

2

2

2

-0.2%

3.7%

0.0%

Eurasia

578

526

556

580

-9.0%

5.8%

1.4%

Russia

439

398

429

445

-9.4%

7.7%

1.2%

Africa

276

262

260

269

-5.2%

-0.5%

1.1%

World

7 944

7 560

7 889

8 014

-4.8%

4.3%

0.5%

PAGE | 102

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Thermal coal and lignite production (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

CAAGR
2021-2024

Asia Pacific

4 875

4 831

5 049

5 221

-0.9%

4.5%

1.1%

China

3 075

3 089

3 250

3 262

0.5%

5.2%

0.1%

India

745

753

781

943

1.1%

3.7%

6.5%

Australia

318

290

296

287

-8.8%

2.2%

-1.0%

Indonesia

595

558

570

562

-6.2%

2.2%

-0.5%

North America

608

459

493

449

-24.4%

7.2%

-3.1%

United States

576

435

469

430

-24.5%

7.8%

-2.8%

Central and South America

86

52

69

63

-40.2%

33.4%

-2.9%

Europe

515

432

460

363

-16.2%

6.6%

-7.6%

European Union

360

288

316

234

-19.8%

9.5%

-9.5%

Middle East

0

0

0

0

-0.2%

0.7%

0.0%

Eurasia

460

416

437

449

-9.6%

5.2%

0.8%

Russia

331

297

320

324

-10.3%

7.6%

0.4%

Africa

267

254

255

260

-4.9%

0.6%

0.6%

World

6 811

6 443

6 763

6 805

-5.4%

5.0%

0.2%

PAGE | 103

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Metallurgical coal production (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

CAAGR
2021-2024

Asia Pacific

885

899

890

961

1.5%

-1.0%

2.6%

China

649

675

675

719

4.0%

0.0%

2.1%

India

11

11

11

12

-1.0%

3.3%

2.3%

Australia

189

179

174

189

-5.6%

-2.8%

2.9%

Indonesia

6

6

6

8

2.5%

5.8%

10.0%

North America

98

80

91

87

-17.9%

13.4%

-1.6%

United States

65

50

59

54

-22.9%

18.9%

-3.1%

Central and South America

5

4

4

5

-26.8%

6.6%

2.9%

Europe

15

14

15

15

-7.0%

3.1%

0.5%

European Union

14

13

14

14

-5.7%

3.0%

0.6%

Middle East

1

1

1

1

-0.2%

4.0%

0.0%

Eurasia

118

111

119

131

-6.7%

7.7%

3.4%

Russia

108

101

110

122

-6.5%

8.1%

3.5%

Africa985

9-15.1%-33.8%

19.2%

World

1 133

1 118

1 126

1 210

-1.4%

0.8%

2.4%

PAGE | 104

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Total coal imports (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

CAAGR
2021-2024

Europe

176

138

166

138

-21.7%

20.4%

-5.9%

Japan

186

184

183

171

-0.5%

-6.9%

-2.3%

Korea

137

123

128

122

4.0%

-4.9%

-1.7%

Chinese Taipei

67

63

64

67

1.3%

5.1%

1.7%

China

317

314

313

262

-0.6%

-16.1%

-5.7%

India

241

214

210

237

-1.8%

12.6%

4.0%

Southeast Asia

138

151

143

171

-5.0%

19.4%

6.1%

Rest of world

176

153

163

167

6.7%

2.3%

0.8%

World

1 439

1 341

1 371

1 336

2.2%

-2.6%

-0.9%

PAGE | 105

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Thermal coal and lignite imports (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

Europe

115

86

108

76

-25.0%

25.7%

CAAGR
2021-2024-11.1%

Japan

140

142

137

123

-3.7%

-10.4%

-3.6%

Korea

102

89

88

80

-1.2%

-9.0%

-3.1%

Chinese Taipei

58

55

55

57

-0.3%

3.7%

1.2%

China

234

239

260

199

8.4%

-23.2%

-8.4%

India

184

154

150

163

-3.0%

8.9%

2.9%

Southeast Asia

125

135

128

154

-5.6%

20.7%

6.5%

Rest of world

144

122

135

138

9.9%

2.4%

0.8%

World

1 101

1 023

1 059

990

3.5%

-6.6%

-2.2%

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

Europe

61

52

58

62

11.6%

8.0%

CAAGR
2021-2024
2.6%

Japan

47

42

46

48

10.2%

3.5%

1.1%

Korea

35

35

41

42

17.4%

4.0%

1.3%

China

83

75

53

63

-29.2%

18.8%

5.9%

India

58

60

61

74

1.3%

21.8%

6.8%

Rest of world

54

54

53

56

-1.5%

5.8%

1.9%

World

338

318

312

346

-1.8%

10.9%

3.5%

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.
PAGE | 106

IEA. All rights reserved.

Metallurgical coal imports (Mt), 2019-2024

Annexes

Coal 2021

Total coal exports (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

CAAGR
2021-2024

Australia

395

372

376

388

1.1%

3.3%

1.1%

Canada

35

32

31

32

-1.7%

2.6%

0.9%

Colombia

77

54

58

54

8.5%

-6.5%

-2.2%

Indonesia

462

405

440

415

8.7%

-5.8%

-2.0%

Russia

218

212

226

232

6.4%

2.7%

0.9%

South Africa

79

75

72

63

-4.6%

-12.7%-4.4%

United States

85

63

80

57

27.9%

-28.9%-10.7%

Rest of world

104

85

84

95

-0.7%

12.5%

4.0%

World

1 455

1 298

1 368

1 336

5.4%

-2.3%

-0.8%

PAGE | 107

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Thermal coal and lignite exports (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

Australia

212

199

207

204

3.8%

-1.5%

CAAGR
2021-2024-0.5%

Colombia

75

52

57

53

8.8%

-6.9%

-2.4%

Indonesia

456

400

435

409

8.8%

-6.0%

-2.0%

Russia

182

173

187

187

8.1%

0.0%

0.0%

South Africa

78

75

72

62

-4.6%

-12.9%-4.5%

United States

37

24

37

21

51.9%

-44.0%-17.6%

Rest of world

62

55

56

55

1.2%

-1.6%

-0.5%

1 103

978

1 050

990

7.3%

-5.7%

-1.9%

World

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

Australia

183

172

169

185

-1.9%

9.1%

CAAGR
2021-2024
3.0%

Canada

33

28

27

28

-2.8%

4.0%

1.3%

Mongolia

31

24

23

31

-3.8%

33.9%

10.2%

Mozambique

6

4

4

7

-3.8%

92.4%

24.4%

Russia

35

40

39

45

-1.3%

15.7%

5.0%

United States

48

38

43

36

12.5%

-15.9%-5.6%

Rest of world

16

14

13

14

-1.5%

6.1%

2.0%

World

352

319

318

346

-0.3%

8.7%

2.8%

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.
PAGE | 108

IEA. All rights reserved.

Metallurgical coal exports (Mt), 2019-2024

Annexes

Coal 2021

Total seaborne coal imports (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

CAAGR
2021-2024

Europe

151

113

139

117

22.9%

-15.9%

-5.6%

Japan

186

184

183

171

-0.5%

-6.9%

-2.3%

Korea

137

123

128

122

4.0%

-4.9%

-1.7%

Chinese Taipei

67

63

64

67

1.3%

5.1%

1.7%

China

282

285

284

226

-0.4%

-20.3%

-7.3%

India

241

214

210

237

-1.8%

12.6%

4.0%

Southeast Asia

138

151

143

171

-5.0%

19.4%

6.1%

Rest of world

122

105

119

123

12.7%

3.8%

1.2%

World

1 325

1 240

1 271

1 235

2.6%

-2.9%

-1.0%

PAGE | 109

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Seaborne thermal coal and lignite imports (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

Europe

90

62

82

55

32.0%

-32.6%

CAAGR
2021-2024-12.3%

Japan

140

142

137

123

-3.7%

-10.4%

-3.6%

Korea

102

89

88

80

-1.2%

-9.0%

-3.1%

Chinese Taipei

58

55

55

57

-0.3%

3.7%

1.2%

China

230

234

254

194

8.4%

-23.6%

-8.6%

India

184

154

150

163

-3.0%

8.9%

2.9%

Southeast Asia

125

135

128

154

-5.6%

20.7%

6.5%

Rest of world

105

88

101

104

15.6%

2.8%

0.9%

World

1 033

959

994

930

3.6%

-6.4%

-2.2%

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

Europe

61

51

57

62

11.9%

7.9%

CAAGR
2021-2024
2.6%

Japan

47

42

46

48

10.2%

3.5%

1.1%

Korea

35

35

41

42

17.4%

4.0%

1.3%

China

52

51

30

32

-41.0%

7.3%

2.4%

India

58

60

61

74

1.3%

21.8%

6.8%

Rest of world

40

41

42

46

2.1%

10.0%

3.2%

World

292

280

277

305

-1.0%

9.9%

3.2%

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.
PAGE | 110

IEA. All rights reserved.

Seaborne metallurgical coal imports (Mt), 2019-2024

Annexes

Coal 2021

Total seaborne coal exports (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

Australia
CanadaColombia
Indonesia
RussiaSouth Africa
United States
Rest of world
World

395
34
77
462
175
79
75
44
1 341

372
31
54
405
171
75
58
31
1 197

376
31
58
440
186
72
75
31
1 269

388
32
54
415
199
63
51
35
1 236

1.1%
-1.4%
8.5%
8.7%
8.8%
-4.6%
30.1%
-0.4%
6.0%

3.3%
2.6%
-6.5%
-5.8%
6.9%
-12.7%-32.1%
10.2%
-2.6%

CAAGR
2021-2024
1.1%
0.9%
-2.2%
-2.0%
2.2%
-4.4%
-12.1%
3.3%-0.9%

PAGE | 111

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Seaborne thermal coal and lignite exports (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

Australia

212

199

207

204

3.8%

-1.5%

CAAGR
2021-2024-0.5%

Colombia

75

52

57

53

8.8%

-6.9%

-2.4%

Indonesia

456

400

435

409

8.8%

-6.0%

-2.0%

Russia

149

140

154

160

10.0%

3.7%

1.2%

South Africa

78

75

72

62

-4.6%

-12.9%-4.5%

United States

32

23

35

18

54.8%

-48.9%-20.0%

Rest of world

33

26

27

26

1.0%

-2.0%

-0.7%

1 035

916

986

932

7.7%

-5.5%

-1.9%

World

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Seaborne metallurgical coal exports (Mt), 2019-2024
Region/country

2019

2020

2021

2024

2019-2020

2020-2021

Australia

183

172

169

185

-1.9%

9.1%

CAAGR
2021-2024
3.0%

Canada

32

28

27

28

-2.4%

4.1%

1.4%

Mozambique

6

4

4

7

-3.8%

92.4%

24.4%

Russia

26

31

32

39

3.7%

22.4%

7.0%

United States

43

35

40

33

13.9%

-17.1%-6.1%

Rest of world

15

12

12

13

-1.6%

6.7%

2.2%

World

306

282

283

304

0.6%

7.5%

2.4%

PAGE | 112

IEA. All rights reserved.

Notes: CAAGR = compound average annual growth rate. Data for 2019 and 2020 are from IEA statistics; 2020 are preliminary; 2021 are estimated; 2024 are forecasts. Differences intotals are due to rounding.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Proposed full
capacity (Mtpa)

Resource

Status

N

..

27

TC

LA

N

2030+

10

TC

LA

GVK Hancock

N

..

24

TC

LA

Angus Place West

Centennial Coal

N

..

2

TC

LA

Australia

Aquila project

Anglo-American / Mitsui

E

2022

3.5

CC

MA

Australia

Ashton South East opencut

Yancoal Australia

E

2025+

2.4

TC, CCLA

Australia

Belview

Stanmore Coal

N

2023+

2.6

TC, CC, PCI

LA

Australia

Bluff

Bowen Coking Coal

N

2022

1.2

PCI

MA

Australia

Broadmeadow East

Bowen Coking Coal

N

2024

1.2

CC

LA

Australia

Bulga (Mod 3 & Mod 7)

Glencore

E

2030+

TC

LA

Australia

BurtonBowen Coking Coal

N

2022

2

TC, CCMA

Australia

Byerwen Coal Project Stage 2

Qcoal/JFE Steel

E

2021

4

TC, CCMA

Australia

Carmichael Coal Project

Adani

N

2021

10

TC

MA

Australia

Carmichael Coal Project Stage 2

Adani

E

..

18

TC

LA

Australia

Caval Ridge Extension

BHP Mitsubishi Alliance

E

2025

15

CC

LA

Australia

Chain Valley Colliery - Mod 4

Delta Coal

E

..

2.1

TC

MA

Australia

China Stone

MacMines Austasia

N

..

38

TC

LA

Australia

Clifford

Stanmore Coal

N

..

5

TC

LA

Australia

Clyde Park Project

Clyde Park Coal Pty Ltd

N

..

1.8

TC

LA

Australia

Columboola Project

SincoCoal And MetroMining

N

2023

5

TC

LA

Australia

Comet Ridge

Springsure Creek Coal

N

2025+

0.4

Australia

Cooroorah

Bowen cokin coal

N..

Australia

Curragh Extension

Coronado Global

E

2023

Australia

Dawson West

Civil & Mining Resources

N

Australia

Dendrobium Extension ProjectSouth32

E

Country

Project

Company

Australia

Alpha Coal Project

GVK Hancock

Australia

Alpha North Coal Project

Waratah Coal

Australia

Alpha West Coal Project

Australia

Type

PAGE | 113

TC, CCLA

CC, PCI

LA

3

TC, CC

MA

..

1.6

TC, CC

LA

2026+

5.2

TC, CCfor domestic (LA)IEA. All rights reserved.

Coal mining projects

Type

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Proposed full
capacity (Mtpa)

Resource

StatusBengal Energy

N

2023

1.9

TC, CCLASouth32 / Aquila Resources

N

2025

4.5

TC, CCLA

Elimatta

New Hope

N

2025+

5

TC, CCLA

Galilee Coal Project

Waratah Coal

N

..

40

TC, CCLACountry

Project

Company

Australia

Dysart East

Australia

Eagle Downs

Australia
Australia
Australia

Gregory Crinum

Sojitz

N

2022

1

CC

LA

Australia

Grosvenor Phase 2

Anglo American

E

2025+

6

TC, CCLA

Australia

Grosvenor West

Qinghai Kingho Group

N

2025+

5

TC, CCLA

Australia

Hillalong

Shandong Energy Group

N

2025+

4.2

TC, CCLA

Australia

Ironbark No. 1 (Ellensfield)
Isaac Plains Complex - Isaac Downs
Project
Isaac Plains Complex - Undergroundextension
Karin

Fitzroy Australia Resources

N

2033

6

TC, CCLA

Stanmore Coal

N

2024+

2.4

TC, CCMA

Stanmore Coal

E

2029

1.2

TC, CCLA

Australia
Australia
Australia

Vitrinite / Itochu Corporation

N

..

1.7

CC

LA

GVK

N

..

30

TC

LA

Centennial Coal

E

2022+

TC

MA

Glencore

E

..

13.5

TC

LA

Malabar Coal

N

2026+

5.7

TC, CCLA

MetRes

E

2022

1.2

CC, PCIMA

Metropolitan Mine

Peabody

E

2021

1.8

CC

operatingAustralia

Minyango

Qcoal

N

2025+

6

TC, CCLA

Australia

Cuesta Coal

N

2023+

1.9

TC

LA

Glencore

E

2021

10

TC, CCLA

Australia

Moorlands
Mount Owen (Glendell Mine)
Continued Operations Project
Mt Pleasant Optimisation Project

MACH Energy Australia

E

..

10.5

TC

LA

Australia

Narrabri Stage 3

Whitehaven Coal

E

2024+

5.3

TC

LA

Australia

Neubeck Coal ProjectCentennial Coal

N

..

1.2

TC

for domestic (LA)Australia

Australia

Kevin's Corner
Mandalong Southern Extension
Project
Mangoola Coal Continued Operations
Project
Maxwell Project

Australia

Mavis Downs - Millenium

Australia

Australia
Australia

Australia

Australia

New Acland (Stage 3)

New Hope

E

2025

7.5

TC

LA

Australia

New Lenton

Bowen Coking Coal

N

2029

1.5

TC, CC, PCI

LA

PAGE | 114

IEA. All rights reserved.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Proposed full
capacity (Mtpa)

Resource

Status

E

2024

1.6

TC, CC

LA

N

2023+

6

TC

LA

N

2024+

8

TC

LA

New Hope Coal

N

2024+

3.5

TC

LA

Olive Downs

Pembroke Resources

N

..

10.5

CC

LA

Olive Downs Stage 1

Pembroke Resources
BHP Billiton / Mitsubishi
Alliance
Glencore

N

2023

4.5

CC

MA

N

2024

14

CC

LA

E

2024+

5

TC

LA

Wollongong Coal

E

2021

1

CC

MA

N

2025

7

CC

LA

N

..

3

TC

LA

Country

Project

Company

Australia

Newstan Mine Extension ProjectCentennial Coal

Australia

North Surat - Collingwood Project

New Hope Coal

Australia

North Surat - Taroom Project

New Hope Coal

Australia

North Surat - Woori Project

Australia
Australia
Australia

Red Hill Mine

Australia

Rolleston Expansion Project
Russell Vale Underground Expansion
Revised Project

Australia

Type

Australia

Saraji East

Australia

South Galilee Coal Project

Australia

Springsure Creek

BHP Billiton / Mitsubishi
Alliance
Alpha Coal Pty Ltd and
AMCI (Alpha) Pty Ltd
Adamelia Group

N

..

11

TC

LA

Australia

Malabar Coal
Central Queensland Coal
Pty Ltd
SIMEC Group

N

2023

8

TC, CC

LA

N

..

2

TC, CCLA

Australia

Spur Hill Underground Coal Project
Styx (Central Queensland Coal
Project)
Tahmoor South Coal Project

E

2022

2

CC

MA

Australia

Talwood

Aquila Resources

N

2025+

3.6

CC

LA

Australia

Australia

Taroborah

Shenhua Energy

N

2020+

5.73

TC

LA

Australia

TeresaUnited Mining Group

N

2023+

6.4

TC, PCILA

Australia

The Range Project

Stanmore Coal

N

2026+

5

TC

LA

Australia

Togara North

Glencore

N

..

6

TC

LA

Australia

Valeria Coal Project

Glencore

N

2026+

20

TC, CCLA

Australia

Vermont East/Willunga

Pembroke Resources

E

2029

4

TC, CC, PCI

LA

Australia

Vickery Extension Project

Whitehaven

N

2024

5.5

TC, CCLA

Australia

Vulkan Mine Complex

Vitrinite

N

..

CC

LA

Australia

Wallarah 2 Coal Project

Korea Resources Corp

N

2025+

5

TC

LA

Australia

WaltonAquila Resources

N

2023+

1.6

PCI

LA

PAGE | 115

IEA. All rights reserved.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Type

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Proposed full
capacity (Mtpa)

Resource

Status

N

2025+

22

TC

LA

N

2024

6

CC

LA

Wilton-Fairhill

Glencore
BHP Billiton / Mitsubishi
Alliance
Futura Resources

N

2023+

3

CC

MA

Winchester SouthWhitehaven Coal

N

2028

11

TC, CCLA

CanadaAries Project

Ramcoal

N

..

4

CC

LA

CanadaBingay Coal ProjectCentermount

N

1

CC

LA

CanadaCarbon Creek

Cardero Coal

N

2022

4.1

CC

LA

CanadaCrown MountainJameson Resources

N

2025

1.9

CC, PCI

MA

CanadaElan

Atrum Coal

N

..

4.5

CC

LA

CanadaElko

Pacific American Coal

N

..

CC

LA

CanadaFording River Extension Project

Teck Coal

E

2030+

10

CC

LA

CanadaGething

CKD Mines

N

2024

2

CC

LA

CanadaChinookMontem Resources

N

..

CC

LA

CanadaGrande Cache

CST

N

2022

1.7

CC

MA

CanadaGroundhog

Atrum Coal

N

..

0.9

A

LA

CanadaMurray River

HD Mining

N

..

6

CC

LA

CanadaMichel Coal ProjectNorth Coal

N

2024

2

CC

LA

CanadaSukunka

Glencore

N

..

3

CC

LA

CanadaTenas

Allegiance Coal / Itochu

N

2024

0.75

CC

LA

CanadaMontemConuma Coal Resources
Ltd.
Yildirim Holding

E

2023

1.1

TC

LA

N

2022

1

CC

LA

Colombia

Tent Mountain
Wolverine-Hermann Amendment
Project
Canaverales

N

2022

2.5

TC

LA

Colombia

Papayal

Yildirim Holding

N

2022

2.4

TC

LA

Colombia

San Juan

N

2023

16

TC, PCILA

Colombia

La Francia and El Hatillo

E

2021

2

TC

MA

Indonesia

Adaro MetCoal Companies (AMC)
Concessions

Yildirim Holding
Colombian Natural
Resources (CNR)
Adaro

N

..

CC

LA

Country

Project

Company

Australia

WandoanAustralia

Wards Well

Australia
Australia

CanadaPAGE | 116

IEA. All rights reserved.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Annexes
Earliest
proposed
start-up

Proposed full
capacity (Mtpa)

ResourceTC

LA

2

CC, PCI

MA

2

TC

LA

2021

16

TC

LA

N

..

5

TC

LA

N

2022

1

CC

LA

Aspire Mining

N

2021

10

CC

LA

Shinejinst

Gobi Coal and Energy

N

2021

3

CC

MA

Mongolia

Tavan Tolgoi Extension

Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi

E

2021

19

CC

LA

Mozambique

Benga Extension

ICVL

E

2021

15

CC

LA

Mozambique

Moatize Coal Mine

Vale/Mitsui

E

2021

15

TC, CCLA

Mozambique

Ncondezi

N

2022

1.5

TC

LA

Mozambique

RevuboeN..

7

TC, CCLA

MozambiqueZambeze

Ncondezi Energy
Talbot Group, Nippon Steeland POSCO
ICVL

N

2023

12

CC

LA

Country

Project

CompanyTypeIndonesia

Bukit Enim Energi

Adaro

N

..

Indonesia

Bumi Barito Mineral

Cokal

N

2021

Indonesia

Graha Panca Karsa

ITM

N

Indonesia

Pakar North

Kangaroo ResourcesN

Indonesia

Tekno Orbit Persada

MEC Coal

Mongolia

NuursteiAspire Mining

Mongolia

Ovoot

Mongolia

StatusNew ZealandEscarpment

Bathurst Resources

R

..

0.9

CC

Russia

Amaam

E

2022

6.5

CC

LA

RussiaButovskaya (Stage 2)

E

2021

0.8

CC

MA

RussiaChernogorsky

E

2022

3.5

TC

MA

RussiaElegest Expansion

E

..

10

CC

LA

RussiaElga

Tiger Realm Coal
Industrial Metallurgical
Holding
SUEK
Tuva Energy Industry
Corporation (TEPK)
A-Property

E

..

6.7

TC, CCMA

RussiaInaglinsky-1

Kolmar

E

2021

4

CC

MA

RussiaInaglinsky-2

Kolmar

E

..

8

CC

LA

RussiaKarakansky (Stage III)

Karakan Invest

E

2021

3

TC

LA

RussiaPravoberezhny

SUEK

E

2024

3

TC

LA

RussiaSibirskaya

UglePromInvest

N

2022

3

TC

LA

RussiaTaymyr Stage 1

AEON

N

2023

5

CC

MA

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Coal 2021

Type

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Proposed full
capacity (Mtpa)

Resource

Status

N

..

5

CC

LA

E

2022

1.3

CC

MA

Usinsky-3

AEON
Industrial Metallurgical
Holding
NLMK

N

2021

2.7

CC

LA

Birmingham underground project

Canyon Coal

N

2021

3.6

TC

MA

South Africa

Boikarabelo

Resource Generation

N

2021

6

TC

LA

South Africa

Boikarabelo Stage 2

Resource Generation

E

2025+

6

TC

LA

South Africa

De Wittekrans

Canyon Coal

N

2021

3.6

TC

MA

South Africa

Driefonten

Canyon Coal

N

..

0.6

TC

LA

South Africa

Klipspruit life extension project

Seriti

E

2021

TC

MA

South Africa

Koornfontein OC

Black Royalty Minerals

E

2021

3

TC

MA

South Africa

KoppieCanyon Coal

N

..

1.8

TC

LA

South Africa

Makhado Phase 1

MC Mining

N

2022

1.1

TC, CC

MASouth Africa

Makhado Phase 2

MC Mining

E

2022

1.7

TC, CCLASouth Africa

New Largo

Seriti

N

..

12

TC

LA

South Africa

Palmietkuilen

Canyon Coal

N

2022

2.4

TC

LA

South Africa

Springfield

Canyon Coal

N

2022

7

TC

LA

South Africa

Witfontein

Canyon Coal

N

2021

1.2

TC

LA

UkraineLubel

Lubel Coal Company

N

2021

5.2

CC

LA

United States

Berwind Expansion

Ramaco Resources, Inc.

E

2022

0.8

CC

MA

United States

Big Creek mine

Ramaco Resources, Inc.

N

2021

0.2

CC

MA

United States

Blue Creek No. 1

Warrior Met Coal

E

2023

4.3

CC

LA

United States

Brook Mine

Ramaco Carbon LCC

N

2021

0.25

TC

LA

United States

Bulldog Mine

Sunrise Coal

N

..

3

TC

LA

United States

Cypress Mine

Paringa Resources Ltd.

N

2022

3.8

TC

LA

United States

ItmannConsol Energy

N

2022

0.6

CC

MA

United States

Knox Creek

Ramaco Resources, Inc.

N

2022

0.7

CC

LA

Country

Project

Company

RussiaTaymyr Stage 1

RussiaTikhova Stage 2

RussiaSouth Africa

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Annexes

Coal 2021

Country

Project

United States

Longview

United States

Shoal Creek

Company
North Central Resources,
LLC
PeabodyType

Earliest
proposed
start-up

Proposed full
capacity (Mtpa)

Resource

Status

N

2022

4

CC

MA

E

2021

2.1

CC

MA

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Annexes

Coal 2021

Annexes

Coal 2021

Thermal (or steam) coal: Refers to hard coal used for purposes
other than metallurgy in this report.

Definitions

Coking coal: High-quality coal to produce coke used in blast
furnaces to make pig iron. Coking coal and metallurgical coal areterms sometimes used interchangeably.

Coal: A solid, combustible fossil sedimentary rock. Coal comesfrom buried vegetation transformed by the action of strong pressureand high temperatures over millions of years.

Semi-soft coal: High-quality steam coal mixed with coking coal toproduce coke for blast furnaces.

Coal rank: The degree of transformation from the original plantsource. It is loosely related to the age of the coal and is mainly
determined from random reflectance of the vitrinite, one of coal’sorganic components. The ranks of coal, in decreasing order oftransformation from high to low, are: anthracite, bituminous coal,
sub-bituminous coal, lignite and peat. This report distinguishes
between hard coal (anthracite, bituminous and sub-bituminous coal)and lignite, while peat is not considered.

Pulverised coal injection (PCI) coal: A high-quality steam coal
injected into a blast furnace to reduce coke consumption.
Metallurgical coal: Refers to coking coal, semi-soft coal andpulverised coal injection coal in this report. Although anthracite isoften used for metallurgical purposes, it is classified as thermal coalin this report.

Coal quality: Represents a variety of properties exhibited by coalwhen it is used. Calorific value and impurity content are the main
parameters defining the quality of thermal coal, whereas caking
properties, resistance and impurity content are the distinguishing
characteristics for coking coal.

Run-of-mine coal: Raw coal as it is mined previous to any
processing.
Tonne of coal equivalent (tce): A unit of energy widely used in theinternational coal industry. It is defined as 7 million kilocalories(kcal). Therefore, the relationship between tce and physical tonnes
depends on the net calorific value of the coal. One tonne of coalwith a net calorific value of 7 000 kcal per kilogramme (kcal/kg)
represents 1 tce.

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Coal classification: Refers to a range of coal age, composition andother properties. Many classifications are used around the world
with the main parameter being the coal rank, supplemented by its
intended use, i.e. thermal or metallurgical applications.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Coal mining: A technique used to remove coal from a naturaldeposit. Coal deposits in the Earth’s crust occur at various depths
and seam configurations, which determine the mining method used.
Generally, deep deposits are mined underground and shallow
deposits are exploited through opencast mines. The strip ratio
largely determines whether an opencast mine is profitable or not.

Coal washing/upgrading: A process in which impurities (i.e. ash,moisture) are partially removed from raw coal to produce a higherquality coal.

Strip ratio: The overburden or waste material removed, usually
expressed as cubic metres per tonne of coal extracted. High strip
ratios make opencast mining unprofitable.

Underground mining: A method in which access to coal seams isgained through underground shafts, galleries and tunnels. Although
there are many ways to mine an underground deposit, coal isusually stripped by automatic shearers or continuous mechanicalminers using either short/long walls or room-and-pillar exploitations.
Underground mining is generally more labour-intensive and requires
higher capital investments than opencast mining.
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Opencast mining: A method in which the overburden is first drilled,then blasted, and when the deposit is accessible, coal is removed ina similar way to the overburden. To remove the coal, power
shovels, conveyor belts and trucks may be used, as well as someextremely large machinery such as draglines and bucket wheels.
Opencast mining is usually less labour-intensive than undergroundmining, but has higher consumable costs, e.g. for tyres, diesel andexplosives. Generally, opencast methods imply greater
environmental impact than underground mining.

Annexes

Coal 2021

Regional groupings
Africa: Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Republic of
the Congo (Congo), Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of theCongo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Libya,
Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal,
South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, United Republic of Tanzania(Tanzania), Togo, Tunisia, Zambia, Zimbabwe and other Africancountries and territories.

Central and South America: Argentina, Plurinational State of
Bolivia (Bolivia), Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba,
Curaçao, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala,Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru,
Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Bolivarian Republic ofVenezuela (Venezuela), and other Central and South Americancountries and territories.
China: The People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.

Europe: European Union regional grouping and Albania, Bosnia
and Herzegovina, Iceland, Gibraltar, Kosovo, Montenegro, Norway,
Republic of North Macedonia, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey and theUnited Kingdom.
European Union (EU): Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus,
Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany,
Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg,
Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovak Republic,
Slovenia, Spain and Sweden.
Middle East: Bahrain, Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran), Iraq, Israel,
Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syrian Arab
Republic (Syria), the United Arab Emirates and Yemen.
North America: Canada, Mexico and United States.
Southeast Asia: Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao
People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), Malaysia, Myanmar,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Viet Nam. These countries are
all members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN).

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Asia Pacific: Southeast Asia regional grouping and Australia,
Bangladesh, the People’s Republic of China and Hong Kong
(China), Chinese Taipei, India, Japan, Korea, Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea (North Korea), Mongolia, Nepal, New Zealand,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and other Asian countries and territories.

Eurasia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Republic of Moldova, Russian Federation (Russia),
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan

Annexes

Coal 2021

NCI

National Coal Index (India)

NLC

Neyveli Lignite Company India Limited

NTPC

National Thermal Power Corporation Limited (India)

OECD

Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment

API

Argus/McCloskey’s Coal Price Index

CCGT

combined-cycle gas turbine

CFR

cost and freight

CIF

cost, insurance and freight

PCI

pulverised coal injection

CIL

Coal India Limited

SCCL

Singareni Collieries Company Limited (India)

CO2

carbon dioxide

SUEK

Siberian Coal Energy Company

CV

calorific value

TTF

Title Transfer Facility (Netherlands)

EIA

Energy Information Administration (United States)

US

United States

EU

European Union

USC

ultra-supercritical

EUA

European Union Allowance

y-o-y

year-on-year

FOB

free on board

GDPgross domestic product

HCC

hard coking coal

AUD

Australian dollar

ICVL

International Coal Ventures Private Limited

CNY

Chinese yuan renminbi

IEA

International Energy Agency

COP

Colombian peso

JCC

Japanese Crude Cocktail

IDR

Indonesian rupiah

LNG

liquefied natural gas

RUB

Russian ruble

MDO

mine developer operator

USD

United States dollar

metmetallurgical

ZAR

South African rand

Currency codes

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Abbreviations and acronyms

Annexes

Coal 2021

bt

billion tonnes

dwt

deadweight tonnage

GW

gigawatt

kcal

kilocaloriekg

kilogrammekmkilometrektkilotonnes

Mtmillion tonnes

Mtpa

million tonnes per annumMW

megawatt

t

tonne

TWh

terawatt hours

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Units of measureAnnexes

Coal 2021

This publication has been prepared by the Gas, Coal and Power
Markets Division (GCP) of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The analysis was led and co-ordinated by Carlos Fernández
Alvarez, Senior Coal Analyst. Jonas Zinke, Fabian Arnold andCarlos Fernández Alvarez are the authors. Srivatsan Anandsupported the work on India. Keisuke Sadamori, Director of the IEA
Energy Markets and Security (EMS) Directorate, and Peter Fraser,
Head of GCP, provided expert guidance and advice.
Other IEA colleagues provided important contributions, including
Heymi Bahar, Louis Chambeau, Joel Couse, Laura Cozzi, JeanBaptiste Dubreuil, Tim Gould, Tetsuro Hattori, César Alejandro
Hernández Alva, Javier Jorquera Copier, Stefan Lorenczik, Akos
Losz, Gergely Molnár, Pawel Olejarnik and Hiroyasu Sakaguchi.
Timely and comprehensive data from the Energy Data Centre were
fundamental to the report. Laura Marí Martínez and Mathilde Daugy
provided invaluable support during the process. Special thanks go
to the IEA China desk: Rebecca McKimm, Gong Yuanyuan, Huang
Jingyun and Zhu Erpu, for their tireless research on China.
The IEA Communication and Digital Office (CDO) provided
production and launch support. Particular thanks go to Jad
Mouawad, Head of CDO, and his team: Astrid Dumond, Tanya
Dyhin, Merve Erdem, Jethro Mullen, Isabelle Nonain-Semelin, Rob
Stone, Gregory Viscusi, Therese Walsh and Wonjik Yang. Kristine
Douaud edited the report.

Our gratitude goes to the Institute of Energy Economics at the
University of Cologne (EWI) for sharing its breadth of coal expertiseand modelling.
CRU provided with invaluable data and information for this report.
Special thanks go to Dmitry Popov for his advice and suggestions.
Our gratitude goes to the IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB)
for their support.
Some international experts provided inputs and/or review the draftof the report. Their suggestions and comments were very valuable.
They include: Kevin Ball (Whiteheaven Coal), Paul Baruya(International Centre for Sustainable Carbon), Mick Buffier(Glencore), Mücella Ersoy (TKI), Justin Flood (Delta Electricity),
Howard Gatiss (CMC), Germán Guzmán (CMC), Liu Yunhui(Tsinghua University), Roland Lübke (German Coal Association),Lukazs Mazanek (Polska Grupa Gornicza), Liam McHugh (World
Coal Association), Peter Morris (Minerals Council of Australia),
Brian Ricketts (Euracoal), Hans Wilhem Schiffer (RWE), Akira
Yabumoto (J-POWER) and Fernando Luiz Zancan (Brasilian Coal
Association).
The individuals and organisations that contributed to this report are
not responsible for any opinion or judgement it contains. Any error
or omission is the sole responsibility of the IEA.
For questions and comments, please contact Carlos Fernández
Alvarez (Carlos.Fernandez@iea.org).

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IEA. All rights reserved.

Acknowledgements, contributors and credits

This publication reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat but does notnecessarily reflect those of individual IEA member countries. The IEA
makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the
publication’s contents (including its completeness or accuracy) and shallnot be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the publication. Unlessotherwise indicated, all material presented in figures and tables is derived
from IEA data and analysis.

This publication and any map included herein are without prejudice to thestatus of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation ofinternational frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, cityor area.

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