

地球温暖化問題懐疑論へのコメント

2007 ᖳ 6 ᭮ 15 ᪝ Ver.2.31（http://www.cir.tohoku.ac.jp/~asuka/）᮶໪ኬᏕ ᪺᪝㤮ኑᕖẴ㇗◂✪ᡜ ྚᮟ⣟ᾇὊ◂✪㛜Ⓠᶭᵋ ቌ⏛⪌ୌᾇὊ◂✪㛜Ⓠᶭᵋ ἑᐋᮅ▩⏍ᅗ❟⎌ሾ◂✪ᡜ ỜᏬḿኣᅗ❟⎌ሾ◂✪ᡜ 㔕Ἁᚥᅗ❟⎌ሾ◂✪ᡜ 㧏ᶣ₡ࣀ࣭ࣁ࣭ࢺኬᏕ ௿ເṂྍ㸱さ ᪠㸳
ெⅥ㉫″ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᤴฝࢅ୹࡝ཋᅄ࡛ࡊ࡙ᆀ⌣ぞᶅ࡚Ẵು࠿Ὼᬦ໩ࡌࡾ࡛࠷࠹ࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾ
ᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ໩ㄵ࡞ᑊࡊࠉ
᠔␪Ⓩ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢྫྷᏽⓏ࡝ぜよࢅ࡛ࡾㄵㄕ࠿᪝ᮇᅗහ࡚ࡵᏋᅹࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ
♣ఌ࠾ࡼࡡಘ㢏࡞ࡐࡡὩິᇱ┑ࢅ⨠ࡂ⛁Ꮥ⩽ࢤ࣐ࣖࢼࢷ࢔ࡢࠉࡆ࠹ࡊࡒ⌟≟ࢅᗑっࡌ࡬ࡀ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷࡛⩻࠻ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉᮇ✇࡚ࡢࡆࡿࡼࡡㄵㄕ࠾ࡼ୹࡝ㄵⅤࢅᣘ࠷୕ࡅࠉୌ᪁Ⓩ࡝ࠉ
࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ㛣㐢ࡖࡒヾㆉ࡞ᇱࡘࡂ୹ᘿ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙රమⓏ࡝ཬㄵࢅ⾔࠹ࠊ

1

ࡢࡋࡴ࡞
ᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗㸝௧ୖ࡚ࡢῺᬦ໩ၡ㢗㸞࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉኣࡂࡡ୘☔ᐁᛮ࠿ṟࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ
Ὼᬦ໩ࡡெⅥⓏさᅄࡷᑊ➿ࡡᚪさᛮ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉࡆࡿࡱ࡚ࡡ▩ぜࢅ↋っࡌࡾ࠾ࡡࡻ࠹࡝㆗ㄵࡵᩋぜࡈࡿࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉᵕࠍ࡝ㄵⅤࢅᩒ⌦ࡊࠉ᩺ࡒ࡝▩ぜ࡝࡜ࢅ⣺௒ࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉῺᬦ
໩ၡ㢗࡞㛭ࡌࡾᘋスⓏ࡝㆗ㄵࢅ᥆㐅ࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡡ㔔さᛮࡢ㧏࠷࡛ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ ࡐࡡࡒࡴࠉᮇ✇࡚ࡢࠉ⌟ᅹ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾῺᬦ໩ࡡさᅄࢅࠉ⏐ᴏ㠁࿤௧㜾ࡡெⅥⓏ࡝஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡᤴฝࢅ୹࡝さᅄ࡛ࡌࡾ⩻࠻᪁㸝௧ୖ࡚ࡢࠉࠔெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࠕ࡛࿣ࡩ㸞࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࠉ᠔␪Ⓩ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢྫྷᏽⓏ࡝ゕㄕ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾᵌ⏛㸝1999ࠉ2004ࠉ2005aࠉ2005bࠉ2006ࠉ2007㸞ࠉⷾᖅ㝌㸝2002㸞
ࠉῳ㎰㸝2005ࠉ2006㸞ࠉ௿⸠㸝2003ࠉ2005ࠉ2006㸞
ࠉ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࠉờ⏛㸝2006㸞ࠉ▦Ἁ㸝2007㸞ࠉLenoir㸝2001㸞
ࠉLomborg㸝2001ࠉ2005㸞ࠉṂ⏛㸝2007㸞ࠉCrichton㸝2007㸞࡝࡜ࢅ୯ᚨ࡞ࠉᙴࡼࡡ୹࡝㆗ㄵ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵࢤ࣒ࣤࢹࢅ௧ୖࡡࡻ࠹࡞ฦࡄ࡙ᩒ⌦ࡊࡒࠊ

1. Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡞࠽ࡄࡾࠔྙណࠕ
2. Ὼᬦ໩࡞㛭ࡌࡾ࣏ࢪࢤ࣐ሒ㐠
3. Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗ࡡ⛁ᏕⓏᇱ♇3.1. 㐛ཡ࠽ࡻࡦ⌟ᅹࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ3.2. ⅛⣪ᚘ⎌
3.3. ᆀ⌣ኬẴࡡᵋ㏸࣬කᏕ≁ᛮ
4. Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗ࡡඁ඙㡨న ᮇ✇ࡢࠉ2005 ᖳᗐ⎌ሾ⤊ῥ࣬ᨳ➿Ꮥఌ㸝2005 ᖳ 9 ᭮᮶ா㸞࡚ࡡゞㄵ㈠ᩩ࠽ࡻࡦ 2006 ᖳ 2 ᭮
18 ᪝࡞᮶ாࡡ㧏༐✉ኬᏕ࡚㛜തࡈࡿࡒ᪺᪝㤮ኑᕖ࣬ྚᮟ⣟࡛ᵌ⏛ᩌ࣬୯ᮇḿୌ᭹୦Ắ࡞ࡻࡾࠔᆀ
⌣Ὼᬦ໩࡞㛭ࡌࡾප㛜ゞㄵఌࠕࡡ᪺᪝㤮࣬ྚᮟഁ࠾ࡼࡡ㈠ᩩࢅࡵ࡛࡞ಞḿ࣬ຊ➱ࢅ⾔ࡖࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉᮇ࣭࣋ࣂ࣭࡛࡛ࡵ࡞ࠉࡆࡡࠔᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ໩࡞㛭ࡌࡾප㛜ゞㄵఌࠕࡡⓆ⾪㈠ᩩࢅྙࢂࡎ࡙ࡇୌㄖ࠷ࡒࡓࡄࡾ࡛ࠉ᠔␪ㄵ ࠿ᣚࡗㄵ⌦୘ᩒྙᛮ࡞ᑊࡌࡾ⌦よ࠿῕ࡱࡾ㸝᪺᪝㤮ኑᕖ࣬ྚᮟ⣟ࡡࣂ࣭࣠࣎࢕ࣤࢹⓆ⾪㈠ᩩ࡝࡜ࡢࠉhttp://www.cir.tohoku.ac.jp/omura-p/omuraCDM/
࠾ࡼࢱ࣭ࢗࣤࣞࢺྊ⬗㸞ࠊ ࡱࡒࠉྜྷᵕࡡ㉻᪠࡚␏࡝ࡖࡒㄖ⩽ᒒࢅᑊ㇗࡞ࠉ᪺᪝㤮ࡼ㸝2006㸞ࠉቌ⏛ࡼ㸝2006㸞࠿⥪ㄕࢅᇮ➱ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡈࡼ࡞ࠉ⡷ᅗࡡ➠ୌ⥲ࡡ◂✪⩽ࡼ࠿୯ᚨ࡞࡝ࡖ࡙㐘ႜࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࣇࣞࢡ “RealClimate”㸝http://www.realclimate.org㸞࡚ࡢࠉῺᬦ໩࡞㛭ࡌࡾ᭩᩺ࡡ▩ぜࡷ㆗ㄵ࠿ࢹࣅࢴࢠࡇ࡛࡞よㄕࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ᠔␪ㄵ⩽࡞ࡻࡾࢤ࣒ࣤࢹࡷࡐࡿ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵࢤ࣒ࣤࢹࢅㄖࡳࡆ࡛࠿ฝᮮࡾ
ࡡ࡚⮾࿝῕࠷ࠊ ௧ୖ࡞ࠉῺᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡞㛭ࡌࡾ▩ㆉࣝ࣊ࣜ࡞ᚺࡋࡒ᥆ⷸࢗ࢘ࣇࢦ࢕ࢹࡡୌのࢅࡱ࡛ࡴࡒࠊࡇཤ
↯࠷ࡒࡓࡄࡿࡣᖶ࠷࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

2 1㸞Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢิᚨ⩽ࡡெྡྷࡄ
NCAR: Weather and climate basics
http://www.eo.ucar.edu/basics/index.html
Oxford University: The basics of climate prediction
http://www.begbroke.ox.ac.uk/climate/interface.html
Pew Center: Global Warming basics
http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-basics/
NASA: Global Warming update
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/GlobalWarmingUpdate/ᅗ❟⎌ሾ◂✪ᡜᆀ⌣⎌ሾࢬࣤࢰ࣭: ぜ࡙ࠉㄖࢆ࡚ࠉ⌦よࡌࡾ ᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ໩㈠ᩩ㞗
http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/ws/opening.html
Wikipedia: Global Warming
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming

 2㸞࠵ࡾ⛤ᗐࡢ▩ㆉࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡾெྡྷࡄThe IPCC AR4: Frequently Asked Questions
http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
Hadley Centre: Climate change and the greenhouse effect-A briefing
http://www.metoffice.com/research/hadleycentre/pubs/brochures/Royal Society: Guide to facts and fictions about climate change
http://www.royalsoc.ac.uk/page.asp?id=2986
ᅗ❟⎌ሾ◂✪ᡜᆀ⌣⎌ሾࢬࣤࢰ࣭: ࢤࢤ࠿▩ࡽࡒ࠷Ὼᬦ໩
http://www-cger.nies.go.jp/qa/qa_index-j.html

3㸞࠵ࡾ⛤ᗐࡢ▩ㆉࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉࡻࡽ῕ࡴࡒ࠷ெྡྷࡄ
IPCC 第四次報告書（AR4 2007）http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1/wg1-report.html
IPCC 第三次報告書（TAR 2001）http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm.

 4㸞Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗ࢅᕙࡾ⛁ᏕࡡṌྍࢅ▩ࡽࡒ࠷ெྡྷࡄ
Spencer Weart's "Discovery of Global Warming" (AIP)
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html

5㸞࠵ࡾ⛤ᗐࡢ▩ㆉࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷࡙ࠉ࠾ࡗ᠔␪Ὤࡡ୹ᘿ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙රమⓏ࡞ཬ㥅ࡊࡒ࠷ெྡྷࡄ
Coby Beck's How to talk to Global Warming Skeptic
http://gristmill.grist.org/skeptics3New Scientist: Climate Change: A guide for the perplexed
http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/dn11462
RealClimate: Response to common contrarian arguments
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/index/#Responses
NERC (UK): Climate change debate summary
http://www.nerc.ac.uk/about/consult/debate/climatechange/summary.asp
  A Few Things Ill Considered
http://illconsidered.blogspot.com/
 ಴ெࡡ࢞ࣔࣂࢨࢷ࢔࡞ࡢ㝀⏲࠿࠵ࡽࠉ᩺ࡒ࡝▩ぜࡵḗࠍ࡛⌟ࡿࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉᮇ✇ࡢ࠵ࡂࡱ࡚ࡵ ver.2.3 ࡚࠵ࡽࠉౚ࠻ࡣῺᬦ໩ၡ㢗ࡡ⛁ᏕⓏᇱ♇࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉ᪝ᮇẴ㇗Ꮥఌ࡝࡜ࡡሔ࡚ࡡ
⤽⤾Ⓩ࡝㆗ㄵ࠿ᚪさࡓ࡛ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ࡝࠽ࠉᮇ✇ࡡ 1ࠉ2ࠉ4 ࡢ᪺᪝㤮࠿ᢰᙔࡊ࡙ᇮ➱ࡊࠉ3 ࡢධဤ࡚ฦᢰࡊ࡙ᇮ➱ࡊࡒࠊ4

1. Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡞࠽ࡄࡾࠔྙណࠕ
㆗ㄵ 1. Ὼᬦ໩ࠉ≁࡞Ὼᬦ໩࡫ࡡெⅥⓏ࡝ᙫ㡢࡞㛭ࡌࡾୠ⏲Ⓩ࡝ྙណࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ
ッᣈ 1. ධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢓࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ࡡඔఌ㛏㸝Frederick Seitz㸞 ࠿㸝ࡵ㸞ா㒌㆗ᏽ᭡ࢅྫྷᏽࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ
ୠ⏲࡚ࡢࠉῺᬦ໩࡞ᑊࡊ࡙᠔␪Ⓩ࡝㆗ㄵ࠿ὩⓆ࡞࡝ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.74㸰▦Ἁ 2007㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ➠ୌ࡞ࠉ௫࡞ࡐࡡெ∸ࡡ⫢᭡ࡀ࠿ర࡚࠵ࢀ࠹࡛ࠉୌெࡡ಴ெࡡណぜ࠿ࡌ࡬࡙ࡡណぜࢅ௥⾪ࡌࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ➠஦࡞ࠉOreskes㸝2004㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ͆Global Climate Change͇࡛࠷࠹࣭࣭࢞࣠
ࢺ࡚ࠉ1993 ᖳ࠾ࡼ 2003 ᖳࡱ࡚࡞Ⓠ⾪ࡈࡿࠉISI ࢸ࣭ࢰ࣭࣊ࢪ࡞Ⓡ㘋ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾᰕㄖ௛ࡀࡡ࣭࣋
ࣂ࣭ࢅฦᯊࡊࡒ࡛ࡆࢀࠉ928 ࣭࣋ࣂ࣭࠿ルᙔࡊࠉ࠾ࡗࠉࡐࡡ୯࡚Ὼᬦ໩࡞ᑊࡌࡾெⅥⓏ࡝ᙫ㡢ࡡᏋᅹࢅྫྷᏽࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡵࡡࡢୌࡗࡵ࡝࠾ࡖࡒࠊ➠୔࡞ࠉ⡷ᅗ࡚ࡢࠉධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢓࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ࡡ௙࡞ࠉ
the American Meteorological Societyࠉthe American Geophysical Unionࠉthe American Association for
the Advancement of the Science ࡡࡻ࠹࡝ᏕఌࡵࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࢅᨥᣚࡌࡾපᘟ
ᩝ᭡ࢅⓆ⾪ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉୠ⏲ࡡᏕ⾙ᅆమ࠿ྙྜྷ࡚ெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࢅᨥᣚࡌ
ࡾኇ᪺ࢅฝࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝http://www.scj.go.jp/ja/info/kohyo/pdf/kohyo-19-s1027w.pdf㸞ࠊ ࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉᑛ࡝ࡂ࡛ࡵୠ⏲࠽ࡻࡦ⡷ᅗහࡡ࢓࢜ࢸ࣐࢓࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠔྙណࡢ࠵ࡾࠕ࡛ࡌࡾ᪁࠿
≟Ἓヾㆉ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡢḿ☔࡚࠵ࡾࠊୌ᪁ࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾ᠔␪ㄵ⩽ࡡ᪁ࠍࡢᅸ಻Ⓩ࡝ᑛᩐὬ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ࠾ࡗ
ධࡂฦ㔕࠿␏࡝ࡾᑍ㛓አࡡ◂✪⩽࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ㟸◂✪⩽࡚࠵ࡾሔྙ࠿ᑛ࡝ࡂ࡝࠷ࠊ ࡵࡔࢀࢆࠉࡐࡡࡻ࠹࡝᪁ࠍ࠿㆗ㄵࢅࡊ࡙ࡢ࠷ࡄ࡝࠷ࠉ࡛࠷࠹ណ࿝࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ⚶ࡒࡔ࠿ゕ࠷ࡒ
࠷ࡡࡢࠉ㆗ㄵࢅࡌࡾࡡ࡝ࡼࠉୠ⏲୯ࡡᵕࠍ࡝ฦ㔕ࡡᏕ⏲࡞࠽࠷࡙ኣࡂࡡ◂✪⩽࠿⾔ࡖ࡙ࡀࡒ㆗
ㄵࡡᖉ⤎ࡷ᭩᩺ࡡ▩ぜ࡝࡜ࢅ༎ฦ࡞㊻ࡱ࠻ࡒ୕࡚㆗ㄵࢅࡊ࡙࡮ࡊ࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡞さ᭻ࡌࡾࡡࡢῺᬦ໩࡞㛭ࢂࡾ◂✪࡞ᚉ஥ࡌࡾࡵࡡ࡛ࡊ࡙ᶋᬸ࡝ឺᗐ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷࡛ᛦ࠹ࠊ ࡝࠽ࠉெⅥᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿Ὼᬦ໩ࡡཋᅄ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾッᣈࢅ♟ࡎࠉ࡛࠷࠹ᢀึ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢさịࢅࡻࡂ⪲ࡂ࠿ࠉῺᬦ໩ࡡࢦ࢕࢙ࣤࢪ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙␏࡝ࡾ▩ㆉࣝ࣊ࣜࢅᣚࡗᵕࠍ࡝᠔␪ㄵ⩽࠿ࠉୌమరࢅᣚࡖ࡙ࠔ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿Ὼᬦ໩ࡡ୹ཋᅄ࡚࠵ࡾッᣈࠕ࡛ヾࡴࡾࡡ࠾࠿᪺☔࡚࡝࠷ࡒࡴర࡛ࡵ➽࠻ࡻ࠹࠿࡝࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡡ࠿⋙├࡝ཬᚺ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡵࡊࠉ௫࡞ᢀึ⩽࠿ࠉ⏍∸ࡷ໩Ꮥࡡᑊ
↯ᐁ㥺ࡡ⤎ᯕࡡࡻ࠹࡝ࣝ࣊ࣜࡡࠔッᣈࠕࢅさịࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉᆀ⌣࠿ࡵ࠹ୌࡗ࡛ኬᆵࡡ
ࢰ࢕࣑࣏ࢨࣤ࠿ᚪさ࡛࡝ࡾࠊ ࠔ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࠾ࡼ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾῺᬦ໩ࡢ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿୹࡝ཋᅄࠕ࡛࠷࠹ெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࡢࠉᩐᏕࡡᏽ⌦ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ཚᐠ࡞ッ᪺ࡈࡿࡒࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉ⛁Ꮥࡡ㆗ㄵࡡኬ㒂ฦ࡛ྜྷᵕࠉ
௫ㄕ࡚࠵ࡾ࡛࠷࠻ࡾࠊࡒࡓࡊࠉࡆࡡ㆗ㄵࡢࠉࡥ࡛ࡗࡡỬᏽⓏ࡝ッᣈ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙┷അ࠿ᏽࡱࡾࡻ࠹
࡝௫ㄕ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉᵕࠍ࡝ふῼ஥ᐁࠉ∸⌦Ἢ์ࠉࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘࣤ⤎ᯕ࡝࡜࡞ᇱࡘ࠷
࡙ࠉẴು࡞ᙫ㡢ࢅ୙࠻ࡾᅄᏄ㸝஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࠉࣆࣞࣤࠉ࣒ࢰࣤࠉỀⵠẴࠉኯ㝟Ὡິࠉ◪㯜㓗໩∸ࠉࡌࡌ࡝࡜㸞ࡡኬࡀࡈࢅ⥪ྙⓏ࡞ㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࡻ࠹࡞⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡒ௫ㄕ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ๑㏑ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ࡮࡯ධ
࡙ࡡẴುᏕ⩽࠿ྜྷណࡊࡒ㆗ㄵ࡚ࡵ࠵ࡽࠉᑛ࡝ࡂ࡛ࡵ⌟᫤Ⅴ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉࡐࡡಘ៨ᛮࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡻ࠹࡝ふῼ஥ᐁࡢⓑ↋࡞➴ࡊ࠷ࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉ࠷ࡱ⚶ࡒࡔ࡞ịࡴࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡢࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝≟Ἓ

5ࡡࡵ࡛࡚ࡡ஢㜭ཋ์࡞ᇱࡘ࠷ࡒᨳ➿Ⓩึ᩷࡞ࡻࡾࣛࢪࢠ⟮⌦࡝ࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

ッᣈ 2. ࠔா㒌㆗ᏽ᭡࡞ᢀ෶ࡌࡾ࡝ࠕ࡛࠷࠹Ⴟ㢢᭡㸝࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡㸞࡞ 1 ୒ᩐ༐ெࡡ⛁Ꮥ⩽ࡡ⨣ྞ࠿㞗ࡱࡖࡒ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.74㸰▦Ἁ 2007㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 1998 ᖳ࡞⡷ᅗࡡࢨࣤࢠࢰࣤࢠ࡚࠵ࡾ Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine㸝OISM㸞࠿⾔ࡖࡒ͆Oregon Petition͇㸝࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡㸞ࡢࠉ⡷ᅗ㆗ఌ࡞ࡻࡾா㒌㆗ᏽ᭡ᢀ෶㜴Ḿࢅ┘Ⓩ࡞⾔ࢂ㸣㸣㸣ࡿࡒ᠔␪Ὤ࡞ࡻࡾႿ㢢㐘ິ࡚࠵ࡽࠉႿ㢢᭡࠽ࡻࡦᚃ㏑ࡌࡾࣝࣄ࣭ࣖㄵᩝࡵ࡜ࡀࢅ OISM ࠿ᩐ୒ெ࡞㒉㏞ࡊࡒ࡛ࡆࢀࠉ⣑ 1 ୒ 7 ༐ெࡡࠔ⛁Ꮥ⩽ࠕࡡ⨣ྞ࠿㞗ࡱࡖࡒ࡛႒ఎࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡒࡴ࡞ࠉ
᠔␪Ὤࡡᩐࡡኣࡈࡷເງࡡኬࡀࡈࢅ♟ࡌࡵࡡ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡊࡣࡊࡣ᠔␪Ὤ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᘤ⏕ࡈࡿࡾ㸝࢛ࣝ㸣㸣㸣ࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉႿ㢢᭡ࠉႿ㢢᭡࡛භ࡞㒼ᕱࡈࡿࡒࣝࣄ࣭ࣖㄵᩝࡵ࡜ࡀࠉ⨣ྞ⩽ࡡྞ๑࡝࡜ࡡࡌ࡬࡙࠿ http://www.oism.org/pproject/࠾ࡼࢱ࣭ࢗࣤࣞࢺྊ⬗㸞ࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉῳ㎰㸝2005㸞ࡢࠉࠔ㸝ࡆࡿ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙㸞てࡴࡒࠕ࡛᭡࠷࡙࠷ࡾ㸝p.74㸞ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡆࡡႿ㢢᭡ࡡಘ㢏ᛮ࡞ࡢኬࡀ࡝␪ၡ➚࠿ࡗࡂࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ
2001 ᖳ࡞⡷ Scientific Americanヽ࠿ࠉࡆࡡႿ㢢᭡࡞⨣ྞࡊࡒ୯࡚ Ph.D ಕᣚ⩽࡛୹ᘿࡌࡾ 1400 ெࡡ࠹ࡔࣚࣤࢱ࣑࡞ 30 ெࢅ㐽ࢆ࡚㏛㊟ㄢᰕࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Musser 2001㸞ࠊࡆࡡㄢᰕ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉࡱࡍ 30 ெࡡ࠹ࡔ 26 ெ࠿ᵕࠍ࡝ࢸ࣭ࢰ࣭࣊ࢪ࡚☔ヾ࡚ࡀࠉࡆࡡ 26 ெࡡ࠹ࡔࡡ 11 ெ࠿ࠉ⌟ᅹ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡵࠔႿ㢢ࠕ࡞ࡢ㈰ᠺ࡚ࠉ
ࡐࡡ࠹ࡔࡡ 1 ெࡢ⌟ᅹ࡚ࡵὩິ୯ࡡẴುᏕ⩽ࠉ2 ெࡢ㛭౿ࡌࡾᏕၡฦ㔕࡚ࡡ◂✪⩽ࠉ8 ெࡢ࢕ࣤࣆ࢚࣭࣏ࣜ࡝フ౮࡞ᇱࡘ࠷࡙Ⴟ㢢᭡࡞⨣ྞࡊ࡙࠷ࡒࠊୌ᪁ࠉ☔ヾࡈࡿࡒ 26 ெࡡ࠹ࡔ 6 ெࡢࠉ⌟᫤Ⅴ࡚࠵ࡿࡣ⨣ྞࡊ࡝࠾ࡖࡒ࡛㏑࡬ࠉ3 ெࡢႿ㢢᭡⮤మ࠿ධࡂオ᠀࡞࡝ࡂࠉ1 ெࡢࡌ࡚࡞Ṓஷࡊ࡙࠷ࡒࠊṟࡽࡡ 5 ெࡢరᅂࡵࢤࣤࢰࢠࢹࢅモࡲࡒࡵࡡࡡࠉరࡵ㏁➽࠿࡝࠾ࡖࡒࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉ
30 ெࡡ࠹ࡔࠉ2001 ᖳ᫤Ⅴ࡚ࡵ✒ᴗⓏ࡝᠔␪ㄵࢅ୹ᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾẴುᏕ⩽ࡢୌெࡊ࠾࠷࡝࠷ࡆ࡛
࡞࡝ࡾ㸝㛭㏻ฦ㔕ࡡ◂✪⩽ࢅྱࡴࡿࡣ 3 ெ㸞ࠊࡱࡒࠉ࠵ࡾࢩ࣭ࣔࢻࣛࢪࢹࡢࠔ10 ฦࡂࡼ࠷⨣ྞ⩽ࡡࣛࢪࢹࢅࡔࡼࡖ࡛ぜࡒࡓࡄ࡚ࡵࠉྜྷጞྜྷྞ㸝஦ெࡡ Joe R.Eaglemansࠉ
஦ெࡡ David Tompkins㸞ࠉጞ࠿࡝࠷ྞ๑㸝Biolchini㸞ࠉఌ♣ࡡྞ๑㸝Graybeal & Sayre, Inc㸞ࠉ᪺ࡼ࠾࡝അྞ㸝Redwine, Ph.D.㸞
࠿ぜࡗ࠾ࡾࠕ࡛᭡࠷࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Shelly 2005㸞ࠊ ࠷ࡍࡿ࡞ࡊࢀࠉ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡞ࡢࠉ⨣ྞ⩽ࡢྞ๑ࡡࡲ࠿᥎㍍ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡓࡄ࡚ࠉᡜᒌࠉ⤊Ṍࠉ㏻⤙඙࡝࡜ࡢࡌ࡬࡙୘᪺࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉⴥࡊࡂ㏩᪺ᛮ࡞Ḗࡄࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡐࡵࡐ
ࡵಘ㢏ᛮனࠍࢅ㆗ㄵ࡚ࡀࡾࣝ࣊ࣜࡡࡵࡡ࡚ࡈ࠻࡝࠷ࠊ ࡝࠽ࠉࡆࡡ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡞୹ᐍ⩽࡛ࡊ࡙㛭ࢂࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࠿ Frederick Seitz ࡚࠵ࡽࠉᙴ࠿ࣞ
ࢴࢠࣆ࣭࢘ࣚኬᏕࡡᏕ㛏ࢅࡊ࡙࠷ࡒ㝷࡞ࠉኬᏕࡢࢰࣁࢤఌ♣࠾ࡼ 4500 ୒ࢺࣜࡡ⊡㔘ࢅུࡄ࡙ࠉ
ᙴ⮤㌗ࡢࠉኬᏕࢅ㎙ࡴࡾᑛࡊ๑࡞ࠉࡐࡡࢰࣁࢤఌ♣࡛᭯⤝ࡡ᭿㝀࡝ࡊࢤࣤࢦࣜࢰࣤࢹ࡛ࡊ࡙㞘⏕ዉ⣑ࢅ⤎ࢆ࡚࠷ࡾࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉᙴࡢࠔ㛣᥃႖↦ࡡ೸ᗛ⿍ᐐࡢ࡝࠷ࠕ࡛ᙁࡂ୹ᘿࡊ⤾ࡄ࡙࠷ࡒࡒ
ࡴࠉཬࢰࣁࢤᅆమ࡝࡜࠾ࡼࢰࣁࢤఌ♣࡛ࡡ㔘㖱Ⓩ࡝⒭╌ࢅᣞᦤࡈࡿ⤾ࡄ࡙ࡀࡒெ∸࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ᐁࡢࠉࢰࣁࢤ࡛Ὼᬦ໩᠔␪Ὤ࡛ࡡ㛭౿ࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞⮾࿝῕ࡂࠉ⡷ᅗࡡ⛁Ꮥ⩽ࢡ࣭ࣜࣈࠔ៟៎ࡌࡾ
⛁Ꮥ⩽ྜྷ┍㸝Union of Concerned Scientist㸞ࠕ࠿ࠉ2007 ᖳ 1 ᭮࡞࢙ࢠࢮ࣓࣭ࣤࣄࣜ♣࡛᠔␪Ὤ࡛

6ࡡࡗ࡝࠿ࡽ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ㟸ᖏ࡞レ⣵࡝࣭ࣝ࣎ࢹࢅฝࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Union of Concerned Scientist 2007㸞ࠊᐁ㝷࡞ࠉ㈠㔘″࡛࡝ࡖ࡙⡷ᅗࡡῺᬦ໩᠔␪Ὤࢅ᧧ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡢ▴ἔ࣒ࢩ࣭ࣔࡡ࢙ࢠࢮ࣓࣭ࣤࣄ
ࣜ♣࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ࡮࡯࿔▩ࡡ஥ᐁ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡆࡡ࣭ࣝ࣎ࢹ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ࠾ࡗ࡙ࢰࣁࢤఌ♣࠿࡛ࡖࡒᡋ␆࡛࢙ࢠࢮ࣓࣭ࣤࣄࣜ♣࠿࡛ࡖࡒᡋ␆ࡢ㓖జࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡐࡡ୯ᚨெ∸ࡵࠉ๑ฝࡡ Frederick
Seitz ࡝࡜ᩐெ࠿ࡓࡩࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡆࡿࡼࡡ஥ᐁࡓࡄ࡚ࡵࠉ࡝࠾࡝࠾ࠔࡀࢂ࡜࠷ࠕࡡ࡚࠵ࡾ࠿ࠉᐁࡢ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡞ࡢࠉ௧ୖ
ࡡࡻ࠹࡝ࡵࡖ࡛ࡀࢂ࡜࠷Ⅴ࠿࠵ࡾ1ࠊ➠ୌ࡞ࠉႿ㢢᭡࡛ୌ⥬࡞ “Research Review of the Global Warming Evidence” ࡛ࡊ࡙㒼ᕱࡈࡿࡒ㸣㸣㸣ࣝࣄ࣭ࣖㄵᩝࡵ࡜ࡀ ࡢࠉධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢓࢜ࢸ࣐࣭࠿ฝ∟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾᏕఌヽ Proceedings of National㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣Academy of Science㸝PNAS 㸞࡞ᰕㄖ௛ࡀ࡚᥎㍍ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࢛ࣆ࢔ࢨࣔࣜ࡝ㄵᩝࡡᵕᘟ࡛ධࡂྜྷࡋ
㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣㸣ࡻ࠹࡝ᵕᘟ࡚༰ใࡈࡿ࡙㒼ࡼࡿࡒࡒࡴࠉᑛ࡝࠾ࡼ࡟ெ࠿ࠔPNAS ࡡᰕㄖࢅ㏳ࡖࡒㄵᩝࡡืใࡽࠕ
ࠔධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢓࢜ࢸ࣐࣭࠿࠽ቕ௛ࡀࢅ୙࠻ࡒㄵᩝࠕ࡛࠷࠹༰㇗ࢅུࡄࡒࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢓࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ࡡῦአᢰᙔ࡚࠵ࡾ F. Sherwood Rowland㸝ᙴ⮤㌗ࡢኬẴ໩Ꮥࡡ◂✪⩽㸞ࡢࠉࠔㄵᩝࢅུࡄ
ཱིࡖࡒ◂✪⩽ࡢࠉㄙ࠾࠿⮤ฦࡒࡔࢅࡓࡱࡐ࠹࡛ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷࠾࡛⩻࠻ࡒࠕ࡛㏑࡬࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Lambert 2004㸞ࠊࡱࡒࠉ࢜ࣁ࣭࣬ࣝࢰ࣭ࡡᕣࡊฝࡊெ࡚࠵ࡾ Frederick Seitz ࡡ⫢᭡ࡀ࠿ࠔඔධ
⡷⛁Ꮥ࢓࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ఌ㛏ࠕ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡒࡒࡴࠉࠔᙴ࠿ࡱࡓධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢓࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ࡡ㐘ႜ࡞㛭౿ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹༰㇗ࡵ୙࠻ࡒ㸝ఌ㛏ࢅຸࡴࡒࡡࡢ 60 ᖳ௥࡚ࠉ⌟ᅹࡡᖳ㱃ࡢ 95 ᡧ㸞ࠊࡆࡿࡼࡡㄏ
よࢅよࡂࡒࡴ࡞ࠉධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢓࢜ࢸ࣐࣭ࡢࠉࠔOISM ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙㒼ᕱࡈࡿࡒㄵᩝ࡛ධ⡷⛁Ꮥ࢓࢜ࢸ࣐
࣭ࡢධࡂ㛭౿࡝ࡂࠉㄵᩝࡢ PNAS ࡞᥎㍍ࡈࡿࡒᰕㄖ௛ࡀㄵᩝ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠕ࡛࠷࠹␏ౚࡡኇ᪺ࢅࡌ
ࡃ࡞ฝࡈࡉࡾࢅᚋ࡝࠾ࡖࡒ࡮࡜࡚࠵ࡾࠊ
➠஦࡞ࠉ㒼ᕱࡈࡿࡒㄵᩝࡡ➠ୌⴥ⩽࡚࠵ࡾ Arthur Robinson ࡢ⏍໩Ꮥ⩽࡚ࠉ➠஦ࠉ➠୔ࡡⴥ⩽࡚࠵ࡾ Sallie Baliunas ࡛ Willie Soon ࡢࠉᏫᏼ∸⌦Ꮥ⩽࡚ࡢ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉ▴ἔఌ♣࠿ࢪ࣎ࣤࢦ࣭
࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࢨࣤࢠࢰࣤࢠ࡛῕࠷ࡗ࡝࠿ࡽࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ➠ᄿⴥ⩽ࡡ Zachary W. Robinson ࡢࠉ➠ୌⴥ⩽ࡡ Arthur Robinson ࡡ᜝Ꮔ࡚࠵ࡽࠉShelly㸝2005㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ⛁Ꮥ⩽࡛ࡊ࡙ࡡࣈࣞࣆ࢘
ࢴࢨࣘࢻࣜ࡝ࢹ࣭ࣝࢼࣤࢡࡢུࡄ࡙࠷࡝࠷ெ∸࡚࠵ࡾࠊ➠୔࡞ࠉㄵᩝࡡහᐖࡓ࠿ࠉࡆࡿࡢ “Research Review of the Global Warming Evidence”࡛ࡊ࡙㒼ᕱࡈࡿࡒࡵࡡࡡࠉᐁ㝷࡞ࡢࠉ“Research Review of the Evidence against Global Warming”࡛࿣ࡩ࡬ࡀහᐖ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉⴥ⩽ࡒࡔࡢῺᗐ୕᪴࡞㛭ࡊ࡙㸝ᙔ᫤ࡢ୕᪴ലྡྷࢅぜࡎ࡙࠷࡝࠷
࡛ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡒ㸞⾠᫅ふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࡡࡲࢅ㍍ࡎࠉᆀ⾪㟻࡚ࡡῺᗐ୕᪴ࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࡢ⣺௒ࡊ࡙࠷࡝
࠷㸝᭩᩺ࡡ▩ぜ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉNOAA ࡡ⾠᫅ࢸ࣭ࢰ࠽ࡻࡦẴ⌣࡞ࡻࡾࢸ࣭ࢰࡡ᪁࡞ㄏࡽ࠿࠵ࡖࡒࡆ
࡛࠿᪺ࡼ࠾࡞࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᮇ✇ࡡ㆗ㄵ 4 ࢅཤ↯ࡎࡻ㸞ࠊࡱࡒࠉࣃ࣭ࢹ࢓࢕ࣚࣤࢺ࡞ࡻࡾᙫ㡢ࢅ
ᙁㄢࡊࠉNASA ࡞ࡻࡾࣃ࣭ࢹ࢓࢕ࣚࣤࢺࡡᙫ㡢ࢅ༎ฦ࡞⩻៎ࡊ࡙๪ࡽᘤ࠷࡙షᠺࡈࡿࡒῺᗐ୕

1 ࡆࡡ㒂ฦࡡオ㏑ࡢࠉ
Wikipedia ࡚ࡡ Frederick Seitz ࡞㛭ࡌࡾㄕ᪺㸯http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Seitz

㸝2007 ᖳ 2 ᭮ 21 ᪝㸞ࠉLeipzig Declaration ࡞㛭ࡌࡾㄕ᪺㸯http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leipzig_Declaration㸝2007
ᖳ 2 ᭮ 21 ᪝㸞ࠉShelly㸝2005㸞ࠉMusser㸝2001㸞ࠉLambert㸝2004㸞࡞౪ᣈࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊFrederick Seitz ࡛ࢰࣁࢤఌ♣࡛ࡡ㛭౿࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉhttp://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Seitz_Tobacco_Crimes.html ࢅཤ↯ࠊ࡝࠽ࠉᙴࡢࠉ㛣᥃႖↦ࡡ௙࡞ࠉ࢓ࢪ࣊ࢪࢹ࡝࡜ࡡ༱㝜ᛮࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡻ࠹࡝ㄵᩝࡵ᭡࠷࡙࠷ࡾࠊ

7᪴ࢸ࣭ࢰࡵ⣺௒ࡊ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉ㟸ᖏ࡞೩ࡖࡒࣝࣄ࣭ࣖ࡞࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ➠ᄿ࡞ࠉ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡ࡡ୹ᐍ⩽ഁ࡚࠵ࡾ OISM ࡢࠉࡐࡡ OISM ࠿῕ࡂ㛭౿ࡌࡾ㞟ヽࡡ࣭࣑࣭࣌࣋ࢩ୕㸝http://www.accesstoenergy.com/view/ate/s41p31.htm㸞࡞࠽࠷࡙ࠔ㸝࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡ࡢ㸞
1 ୒ 7 ༐ெࡡ⛁Ꮥ⩽࠿ࠉῺᬦ໩ࡢࠉ⛁ᏕⓏ࡝᰷ᣈ࠿రࡵ࡝࠷ࢗࢮ࡛୹ᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠕ࡛୹ᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ཋᩝࡢࠉ“See over 17,000 scientists declare that global warming is a lie withno scientific basis whatsoever”㸞ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡ࡡᩝ❮ࡢࠉࡻࡂㄖࡳ࡛͆There is noconvincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhousegasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphereand disruption of the Earth’s climate͇࡛᭡࠷࡙࠷ࡾ࡞ࡌࡁ࡝࠷ࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉ࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡞ࡢࠔ⌟ᅹࠉெⅥⓏ࡝ᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࠉ࣒ࢰࣤ࡝࡜ࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪࡡᤴฝ࠿࢜ࢰࢪࢹࣞࣆ࡞
࡝ࡾࡻ࠹࡝Ὼᗐ୕᪴࠽ࡻࡦᆀ⌣ࡡẴುࡡᓻቪࢅࡵࡒࡼࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠉ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ foreseeable future ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࠉࡐࡡࡻ࠹࡝Ὼᗐ୕᪴ࡷẴುࡡᓻቪࢅࡵࡒࡼࡌࡆ࡛ࢅ♟ࡌ convincing ࡝⛁ᏕⓏ࡝ッᣈࡢ࡝࠷ࠕ࡛᭡࠷࡙࠵ࡾࡓࡄ࡚ࠉࠔῺᬦ໩ࡢࢗࢮࠕ࡛࠷ࡖࡒࡻ࠹࡝஥ࡢୌว᭡࠾ࡿ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࠊࡆࡿࡢࠉOISM ࡢࠉ⮤ࡼࡡႿ㢢᭡ࡡහᐖࢅഅࡖ࡙ᐃఎࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅណ࿝ࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ࡛ࡽ࠵࠻ࡍႿ
㢢᭡ࡢ⨣ྞ⩽ࢅ㞗ࡴࡷࡌ࠷ࡻ࠹࡝ᩝ❮࡞ࡊ࡙࠽࠷࡙ࠉ⨣ྞ⩽࠿㞗ࡱࡖࡒࡼ᪜ᠺ஥ᐁ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠔῺ
ᬦ໩ࡢࢗࢮ࡚࠵ࡾッᣈࠕ࡛ࡊ࡙Ⴟ㢢᭡ࢅ౐ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ
࢛ࣝࢥࣤႿ㢢᭡࡛జࡒࡻ࠹࡝ࡵࡡ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉFrederick Seitz ࡛ྜྷࡋࡂࢰࣁࢤࡡ㛣᥃႖↦࡞ࡻࡾ೸ᗛ⿍ᐐࢅྫྷᏽࡊࠉࢠࣞࣞࣆ࢛࣭ࣜࣞ࢜࣍ࣤ㸝CFCsࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾࣆࣞࣤ࢝ࢪ㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࢛ࢯࣤᒒ◒ቪࡷ⣰አ⥲࡞ࡻࡾ⓮⭭࢝ࣤࡡⓆ⏍ࡡྊ⬗ᛮ࡝࡜࡞ࡵ␏ࢅ၌࠻࡙࠷ࡒெ∸࡛ࡊ࡙᭯ྞ࡝ Fred
Singer ࠿୹ᐍࡊࡒ͆Leipzig Declaration͇㸝ࣚ࢕ࣈࢲࣃᐃゕ㸞࠿࠵ࡾ2ࠊࡆࡿࡢࠉ1995 ᖳ࡛ 1997ᖳ࡞⾔ࢂࡿࡒῺᬦ໩ᑊ➿ࡷா㒌㆗ᏽ᭡࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬᑊ⨣ྞ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ80 ெࡡ◂✪⩽࡛ 25 ெࡡẴ㇗஢ሒኃ࠿⨣ྞࡊࡒ࡛ࡈࡿࡾࠊࡆࡿ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࡵࠉࢸ࣏࣭ࣤࢠࡡࢷࣝࣄᑻ㸝DR1㸞࠿Ḛᕗᅹపࡡ⨣ྞ⩽ 33 ெࡡ㏛㊟ㄢᰕࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ࡆࡡࢸ࣏࣭ࣤࢠࡡࢷࣝࣄఌ♣࠿โషࡊࡒ␊⤄ࡢࠉ᪝ᮇࡡ
NHK ࡚ᩐᖳ๑࡞ᨲ᫆ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸞ࠊࡐࡿ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ33 ெࡡ࠹ࡔ 4 ெ࠿☔ヾ࡚ࡀࡍࠉ12 ெ࠿⨣ྞࡊࡒࡆ࡛ࢅྫྷᏽࡊࠉరெ࠾ࡢࠉࠔᐃゕࠕ⮤మࢅ⪲࠷ࡒࡆ࡛࠿࡝࠾ࡖࡒࠊ⨣ྞࡊࡒெࡡ⫃ᴏࡢࠉ༈⩽ࠉᰶ∸⌦Ꮥ⩽ࠉ᪳⹰Ꮥ⩽࡚࠵ࡖࡒࠊ
ࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝ெࠍ࠿ࠔ᠔␪Ὤࠕ࡝ࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ
㸝ᢰᙔᇮ➱⩽㸯᪺᪝㤮ኑᕖ㸞

2 Fred Singer ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉhttp://www.ecosyn.us/adti/Singer-Nightline.html ࡷ Wikipedia ࡚ࡡᙴࡡㄕ᪺㸯

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_SingerࠉLeipzig Declaration ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉ
http://www.sepp.org/policy%20declarations/leipzig.html ࡷ Wikipedia ࡚ࡡㄕ᪺㸯
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leipzig_Declaration ࡝࡜ࢅࡐࡿࡑࡿཤ↯㸝2007 ᖳ 2 ᭮ 21 ᪝㸞

82. Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡞㛭ࡌࡾ࣏ࢪࢤ࣐ሒ㐠㆗ㄵ 2. ࠔ࣏ࢪࢤ࣐࡚ࡢࠉ᭩㎾࡞࡝ࡖ࡙ࠉெⅥⓏ࡝Ὼᬦ໩࡞ᑊࡌࡾᢀึࡡオ஥࠿ฝࡾࡻ࠹࡞࡝
ࡖࡒ㸝ౚ࠻ࡣࠉẎ᪝᩺⪲ 05 ᖳ 11 ᭮ 29 ᪝㸞ࠕ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2006, p.138㸞
ࠔ࣏ࢪࢤ࣐࡞ࡢᏬࡼ࡝ࡄࡿࡣ࡝
ࡼ࡝࠷ኬཋ์࠿࠵ࡾࠊࡵࡔࢀࢆࠉࡐࡡୌࡗࡢࠔ஥ᐁࢅሒ㐠ࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࠕࡓ࠿ࠉࡵ࠹ୌࡗࡢࠔ␏࡝
ࡾぜよ࠿࠵ࡾ᫤࡞ࡢ∞᪁ࡓࡄࢅሒ㐠ࡊ࡙ࡢ࠷ࡄ࡝࠷ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡓࠕ
㸝Ṃ⏛ 2007, p.117㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ௧ୖࡢࠉཬㄵ࡛࠷࠹ࡻࡽࡵࠉ⚶ࡒࡔ࠾ࡼ࣏ࢪࢤ࣐㛭౿⩽ࡡ᪁ࠍ࡫ࡡ࠽㢢࠷࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ⡷ᅗ࡮࡜࡚ࡢ࡝࠷࡞ࡊ࡙ࡵࠉ᪝ᮇ࡚ࡵࠔሒ㐠࡞࠽ࡄࡾࣁࣚࣤࢪࠕࠔᑛᩐណぜࡡᑕ㔔ࠕ࡝࡜ࢅ⌦⏜࡞ࠉࡊࡣࡊࡣῺᬦ໩᠔␪Ὤࡡណぜ࠿᩺⪲࡝࡜࡞᥎㍍ࡈࡿࡾࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉౚ࠻ࡣḚᕗ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉ⡷ᅗࡷ᪝ᮇࡡ࣒ࢸ࢔࢓࡛Ẓ㍉ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉ᠔␪Ⓩ࡝㆗ㄵ࠿ཱིࡽ୕ࡅࡼࡿࡾᶭఌࡢᴗ❻࡞ᑛ࡝࠷ࠊࡆࡿ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉⱝࣆ࢒࢕ࢻࣤࢨࣔࣜࢰ࢕࣑ࢫ⣤ࡡオ⩽࡚⎌ሾฦ㔕ᢰᙔࡡ Fiona Harvey ࡢࠉࠔḚᕗࡡ࣒ࢸ࢔࢓࠿ࣁࣚࣤࢪ࡞Ḗࡄ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ᠔␪Ὤࡡ
㆗ㄵࢅྜྷࡋࡻ࠹࡞ཱིࡽ୕ࡅ࡙ࡊࡱ࠹࡛ࠉ㸝ᐁ㝷ࡢࡐ࠹࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࡡ࡞㸞ᙴ➴࠿࢓࢜ࢸ࣐ࢴࢠࡡୠ
⏲࡚ࡵኬࡀ࡝ເງࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛࠷࠹㛣㐢ࡖࡒ༰㇗ࢅㄖ⩽࡞୙࠻࡙ࡊࡱ࠹ࡆ࡛࡞࡝ࡾ࡛⩻࠻࡙࠷ࡾ࠾ࡼࡓࠕ࡛᪺☔࡞㏑࡬࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Thacker 2006㸞ࠊࡵࡔࢀࢆࠉరࢅཱིࡽ୕ࡅࡾ࠾ࠉ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ࡜ࡡࡻ࠹࡝オ஥ࢅ᭡ࡂ࠾ࡢ྘಴ெࡡධࡂ⮤⏜࡚࠵ࡽࠉ⚶ࡒࡔࡡណぜࢅᢪࡊࡗࡄࡾẴࡢẗ㢄࡝࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉࡆ࠹ࡊࡒ᠔␪ㄵ࠿࣒ࢸ࢔࢓ཱི࡚ࡽ୕ࡅࡼࡿࡾ
ࡡࡢࠉῺᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡞ᵕࠍ࡝ெࠍ࠿ኬࡀ࡝㛭ᚨࢅᐞࡎ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࡡッᕞ࡛ࡵ⩻࠻ࡼࡿࠉࡐࡡណ࿝
࡚ࡢḴ㎼ࡌ࡬ࡀࡆ࡛࡝ࡡ࠾ࡵࡊࡿ࡝࠷ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ࣒ࢸ࢔࢓㛭౿ࡡெࠍ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࠉ᠔␪Ὤࡡ㆗ㄵ
ࢅ᩺⪲࡝࡜࡚⣺௒ࡌࡾ๑࡞ࠉ1㸞᠔␪ㄵࡡ୯㌗ࡷ᠔␪ㄵ⩽ࡡ⫴ᬊ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡵ࠹ᑛࡊຫᙁࡊ࡙ḟ
ࡊ࠷ࠉ2㸞ᚪࡍࡊࡵ⌟ᅹࡡ⛁Ꮥ▩ㆉࢅࡻࡂ௥⾪ࡌࡾࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࡡ࡚಴ࠍࡡㄵᩝ(᭩࡚᩺࠵ࡖ࡙ࡵ)ࡡ⤎ㄵࢅ㔔っࡊࡌࡁ࡝࠷࡚࡮ࡊ࠷ࠉ࡝࡜ࢅ࠽㢢࠷ࡌࡾࡡࡢỬࡊ࡙㐛ኬ࡝さị࡚ࡢ࡝࠷࡛ᛦ࠹ࠊ ౚ࠻ࡣࠉࠔῺᬦ໩ࡢ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࠕࡷࠔῺᗐ୕᪴ࡡࢡࣚࣆ࡞ࡢᾇࡷ⏛⯃ࡡࢸ࣭ࢰ࠿ථࡖ࡙࠷
࡝࠷ࠕ࡛࠷ࡖࡒࡻ࠹࡝㢦ࡡ㆗ㄵࡢࠉᮇ✇࡚ࡵㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࡻ࠹࡞ࠉIPCC ࡷ NASA ࡡ࣭࣑࣭࣌࣋ࢩ
࡞࢓ࢠࢬࢪࡌࡿࡣࡌࡃ㛣㐢࠷ࡓ࡛ฦ࠾ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉ᠔␪ㄵࡡኣࡂ࠿ྜྷ⛸ࡡᮇࡷ⡷ᅗࡡ᠔␪Ὤࡡ࣌
࣭࣑࣭࣋ࢩ࡝࡜࠾ࡼࡡུࡄ኉ࡽ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉ᰷ᣈࡷฝ඼࠿᭍ᫍ࡝ࡵࡡ࠿࡮࡛ࢆ࡜࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡵᙴ
➴ࡡⴥ᭡ࡡᘤ⏕ᩝ⊡࡝࡜ࢅぜࡿࡣୌ┘▉↓࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡐࡵࡐࡵࠉኬ㒂ฦࡡ᠔␪ὬࡢࠉẴು⛁Ꮥࡷᆀ⌣⛁Ꮥࢅᑍ㛓࡛ࡌࡾ◂✪⩽࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉ㸝ᑛ࡝ࡂ࡛ࡵḚ⡷࡚ࡢ㸞≁ᏽࡡฺ─ᅆమ࡛⤎ࡦࡗ࠷ࡒெࡒࡔ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ᠔␪Ὤࡡ୯࡞ࡢࠉᏕ⾙ヽ࡞࠽ࡄࡾᰕㄖโᗐࢅᢀึࡊࠉ᠔␪Ⓩ࡝හᐖࡡㄵᩝ࠿᥎㍍ࡈࡿ࡝࠷⌦⏜ࢅᏕఌࣆ࢒ࢨࢫ࣑ࡡࡎ࠷࡞ࡌࡾெࡒࡔ࠿࠷ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᐁ㝷࡞ᑍ㛓Ⓩ࡝Ꮥఌ࡞ཤຊࡊ࡙ࠉㄵ
ᩝࢅ┷㟻┘࡞Ꮥ⾙ヽ࡫ᢖ✇ࡊࡻ࠹࡛ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ᠔␪Ὤࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞ᑛ࡝࠷㸝᪝ᮇ࡚ࡢୌெ࠾஦ெ㸞ࠊᢖ✇ㄵᩝ࠿Ꮥ⾙ヽ࡞᥎㍍ࡈࡿ࡝࠷⌦⏜ࡵࠉࡒࡓ༟࡞ㄵᩝࡡỀ‵࠿఩࠷ࡒࡴ࡚࠵ࡽࠉᏕఌࣆ࢒ࢨ
ࢫ࣑࡛࠷ࡖࡒࡻ࠹࡝ᢀึࡢ⿍ᐐዱ᝷࡛⮤ಘ㐛๨ࡡ㈱∸௧አࡡర∸࡚ࡵ࡝࠷ࠊ ᪜ᚋᶊ─ṒᏬࢅ┘Ⓩ࡛ࡊࡒᡋ␆Ⓩ᠔␪Ὤࡡ┷ࡡࢰ࣭ࢣࢴࢹࡵᑍ㛓ᐓࡷᏕఌ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊᙴ➴ࡡ

9┘ⓏࡢῺᬦ໩ᑊ➿ࡡᚪさᛮ࡞ᑊࡌࡾ♣ఌヾㆉࢅ࡚ࡀࡾࡓࡄᕵ⷟࡝ࡵࡡ࡞ࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡝ࡡ࡚ࠉࡐࡿ
ࢅᐁ⌟ࡌࡾࡒࡴࡡᡋ␆࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉ࡛࡞࠾ࡂࠔῺᬦ໩ၡ㢗ࡢ࡝ࢆ࡛࡝ࡂ୘☔ᐁᛮ࠿ኬࡀ࠷ࠕ࡛࠷࠹
ᾐ࠻࡞ࡂ࠷࢕࣒࣭ࢩࢅୠ㛣ୌ⯙ࡡெࠍࡡ㢄ࡡ୯࡞᳔࠻௛ࡄࡻ࠹࡛ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉṟᛍ࡝ࡆ࡛࡞ࠉ↋ណㆉࡡ࠹ࡔ࡞ࠉࡐࡡࡻ࠹࡝᪜ᚋᶊ─ṒᏬࢅ┘Ⓩ࡛ࡊࡒெࠍࡡ∞Ფࢅᢰ࠷࡚ࡊࡱࡖ࡙࠷
ࡾࢻ࢕࣭ࣇ࡝᠔␪Ὤࡡெࠍ࠿᪝ᮇ࡞ࡢᑛ࡝ࡂ࡝࠷ࠊ ⛁Ꮥ࡛♣ఌ࡛ࡡࢤ࣐ࣖࢼࢢ࣭ࢨࣘࣤ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉ⛁Ꮥ⩽ࡡഁ࠾ࡼࡡຑງ࠿ᚪさ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ
ゕࢅಖࡒ࡝࠷ࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉṟᛍ࡝࠿ࡼῺᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉᴣࡊ࡙᪝ᮇ࡚ࡢࠉ㛭㏻ฦ㔕ࡡᑍ㛓ᐓ࠿ඖฦ࡝ຑງࢅᡮࡖ࡙࠷ࡒ࡛ࡢᚪࡍࡊࡵゕ࠻࡝࠷ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉర࡛ゕࡖ࡙ࡵ࣒ࢸ࢔࢓ࡡᙫ㡢ງࡢ⤧ኬ࡚࠵ࡾࠊῺᬦ໩ᑊ➿ࡡᚪさᛮ࠿ቌࡌ୯ࠉࠔெ࠿≗࡞ჱࡲࡗ࠷ࡒࠕࡡࢿࣛࡓࡄ࡚Ὼᬦ໩᠔␪
ㄕࢅཱིࡽ୕ࡅࡾࡆ࡛ࡓࡄࡢ᫕㟸࡛ࡵࡷࡴ࡙ḟࡊ࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡡ࠿⚶ࡒࡔࡡวᐁ࡝㢢࠷࡚࠵ࡾࠊ
㸝ᢰᙔᇮ➱⩽㸯᪺᪝㤮ኑᕖ㸞

10

3. Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗ࡡ⛁ᏕⓏᇱ♇3.1. 㐛ཡ࠽ࡻࡦ⌟ᅹࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ ㆗ㄵJones et al.㸝2001㸞࡞ࡻࡾ 19 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࠾ࡼࡡẴῺࡡ᥆⛛ࡷࠉMann et al.㸝1998, 1999㸞࡞ࡻࡾཿẴುᣞᵾࢅ⏕࠷ࡒ㐛ཡ 1000 ᖳࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡡẴῺࡡ᥆ᏽࢅ♟ࡌࢡࣚࣆࡢࠉ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࠾ࡼࡡ㢟ⴥ࡝Ὼᬦ໩ലྡྷࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡒࡊ࠾࡞ࠉࡆࡿࡼࡡࢡࣚࣆ࡞㛭ࢂࡾ⛁ᏕⓏ୘☔ᐁᛮࡢṟࡖ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ
ኯ㝟Ὡິ࡝࡜ࡡ⮤↓㉫″ࡡንິࡡᐞ୙࡝࡜ࠉよ㔐࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡵ㆗ㄵࡡఴᆀࡢ࠵ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡆ࠹
ࡊࡒⅤࢅࡆ࡛ࡈࡼ࡞ཱིࡽ࠵ࡅࡒࡽࠉࣃ࣭ࢹ࢓࢕ࣚࣤࢺ⌟㇗ࡡᙫ㡢ࢅ㐛ኬフ౮ࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉ
ࢡࣚࣆ࡞♟ြࡈࡿࡾῺᬦ໩ലྡྷࢅධࡂ↋っࡊ࡙ࡻ࠷࠾ࡡࡻ࠹࡝୹ᘿࢅ⧖ࡽᗀࡅࡾ᠔␪ㄵࢅ┘࡞ࡌࡾࡆ࡛࠿࠵ࡾࠊᮇ⟿࡚ࡢࠉࡆ࠹ࡊࡒ᠔␪ㄵࡡ஥ᐁㄏヾࡷ⾔ࡀ㐛ࡁࡒⅤࢅᣞᦤࡊࠉふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ᑊࡌࡾᢀึ࡛ಘ㢏ࡡ೸ධ࡝ࣁࣚࣤࢪࢅಕࡖࡒឺᗐ࠿ᚪさ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅㄕࡂࠊ

㆗ㄵ 3. ࡐࡵࡐࡵῺᬦ໩࠿㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾࡜࠹࠾ࡢࢂ࠾ࡼ࡝࠷ࠊ࡝ࡏ࡝ࡼࡣࠉῺᗐࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ࠿࠽࠾ࡊ࠷ࠊ
ッᣈ 1. ᆀ⌣⾪㟻ࡡ 7 ๪ࢅ༥ࡴࡾᾇ୕ࡡẴುን໩ࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࡢ࡝ࡂࠉ㒌ᕰ໩ࡡᙫ㡢ࡵ༎ฦ࡞⩻៎ࡈࡿ࡙࠷࡝࠷㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.76㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳ࡱࡍࠉᾇ୕ࡡࢸ࣭ࢰ࠿࡝࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢῳ㎰㸝2005㸞ࡡㄏよ࡚࠵ࡾࠊධ⌣ᖲᆍᆀ୕ẴῺ࡛࿣ࡣࡿࡾᩐೋࢅゝ⟤ࡌࡾ࡞ࡢࠉࡨࡗ࠹ࠉ㝛୕࡚ふῼࡈࡿࡒẴῺࡡࢸ࣭ࢰ࡛ࠉ⯢࡝࡜࡚ふῼࡈࡿࡒᾇ
㟻ỀῺࡡࢸ࣭ࢰ࠿౐ࢂࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡐࡡ᪁Ἢࡢࠉ㔕Ἁ㸝2007㸞࠿よㄕࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ཤ↯ࡊ࡙࡮ࡊ࠷ࠊౚ࠻ࡣ IPCC ➠ 3 ḗሒ࿈᭡࡞᥎㍍ࡈࡿࡒ㐛ཡ 25 ᖳ㛣ࡡῺᗐን໩ࡡᅒ㸝ᅒ 1㸞ࡢࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹
࡞㝛୕ẴῺ࡛ᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࢅ⤄ࡲྙࢂࡎ࡙ᚋࡼࡿࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ  

ᅒ 1 ධ⌣Ⓩ࡝Ὼᬦ໩ലྡྷࢅ♟ࡌふῼ⤎ᯕ㸝http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig2-9.htm㸞

11 NASA ࡡࢩ࣭࣑࢘ࢪ࣬ࣀࣤࢬࣤࡒࡔ࠿Ⓠ⾪ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࢡࣚࣆ 㸝http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ 㸞ࡢࠉ㝛୕ࡓࡄࡡ㞗ゝೋࡵ࠵ࡾ࠿ࠉᾇ୕ࡓࡄࡡࡵࡡࠉᾇ࡛㝛ࡡ୦᪁ࢅྱࡴࡒࡵࡡࡵ࠵ࡾ 㸝࠷ࡍࡿࡵ୕᪴ലྡྷࡢ࡮࡯ྜྷࡋ࡚࠵ࡾ㸞ࠊ 㝛୕ࡡふῼⅤࡡ࠹ࡔ࡞ࡢࠉ㒌ᕰࡡࣃ࣭ࢹ࢓࢕ࣚࣤࢺຝᯕ࡝࡜ࠉふῼሔᡜࡡ࣭ࣞ࢜ࣜ࡝⎌ሾࡡን໩ࡡᙫ㡢࠿ኬࡀ࠷࡛ࡆࢀࡵ࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ☔࠾࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉධ⌣ᖲᆍᆀ୕ẴῺࢅゝ⟤ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ྘◂✪ࢡ࣭ࣜࣈ࡚ࡢࠉ࣭ࣞ࢜ࣜ࡝ᙫ㡢ࢅུࡄࡒふῼೋࢅ㝎አ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ⿭ḿࡌࡾຑງࢅࡐ
ࡿࡑࡿ⾔࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉParker㸝2004㸞ࡢࠉࣃ࣭ࢹ࢓࢕ࣚࣤࢺຝᯕࡢ㢴ࡡᙁ࠷እ࡞ࡢᘽ࠷
࡞ࡵ࠾࠾ࢂࡼࡍࠉῺᗐ୕᪴㔖ࡢ㢴ࡡᙁ࠷እ࡛㢴ࡡᘽ࠷እ࡛ࡡ㛣࡞ኬࡀ࡝㐢࠷࠿࡝࠷ࡆ࡛࠾ࡼࠉ
Ὼᗐ୕᪴࡫ࡡࣃ࣭ࢹ࢓࢕ࣚࣤࢺࡡᙫ㡢ࡢᑚࡈ࠷࡛フ౮ࡊࡒࠊ ࡛ࡆࢀ࡚ࠉධᆀ⌣ࡡῺᬦ໩ࡡᣞᵾࡢධ⌣ᖲᆍᆀ୕ẴῺࡓࡄ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊᆀ୕࠾ࡼ㧏ࡈ⣑ᩐ kmࡱ࡚ࡡᑊὮᅥୖᒒࡡẴῺ࡞ࡵ㸝ࠔ㆗ㄵ 4ࠕࡡ㡧ཤ↯㸞ࠉᾇࡡ῕ࡈ 3km ࡱ࡚ࡡ⵫⇍㔖࡞ࡵ㸝Levitus
et al. 2005㸞ࠉ୕᪴ലྡྷ࠿ぜࡼࡿࡾࠊࡆࡿࡼ࠿୹࡞ࣃ࣭ࢹ࢓࢕ࣚࣤࢺ࡝࡜ࡡ࣭ࣞ࢜ࣜ࡝ᙫ㡢࡞ࡻࡾࡵࡡ࡚࡝࠷ࡆ࡛ࡢ᪺ࡼ࠾࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

ッᣈ 2. ẴῺ࠿ୖ࠿ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾሔᡜࡵ࠵ࡾࠊ༞ᴗᅥࡡῺᗐࡢ 50 ᖳ㛣ࡍࡖ࡛ᶋࡣ࠷࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ῳ㎰
2005㸰ῳ㎰ 2006㸰Ṃ⏛ 2007㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ୠ⏲ࢅ᥀ࡎࡣẴῺ࠿ୖ࠿ࡾലྡྷࡡሔᡜࡵ࠵ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡐࡿࡼࡢᑻᡜⓏ࡝⮤↓ንິ࡞ࡻࡾࡵ
ࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡐࡿࡼࢅධ࡙᫤㛣✭㛣Ⓩ࡞ᖲᆍࡊ࡙ᚋࡼࡿࡾධమⓏ࡝ലྡྷ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉ20 ୠ⣎ࡡᒜᒾểἑࡡኬぞᶅ࡝ᚃ㏝ࡷῺᬦ໩ࡢ࡮࡯☔ᐁ࡝ふῼ஥ᐁ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ྫྷᏽࡊࡻ࠹࠿࡝࠷ࠊ ࡱࡒࠉ᭩᩺ࡡ◂✪⤎ᯕ࡚ࡢ௧ୖࡡࡻ࠹࡝ࡆ࡛࠿᪺ࡼ࠾࡞࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Knutson et al. 2006㸞

1.㐛ཡ 100 ᖳ㛣࡚ᐨ෫໩ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾᆀⅤࡢ㸝༎ฦ࡝ࢸ࣭ࢰ࠿ᏋᅹࡌࡾᆀⅤࡡ㸞ᩐ㸚ᮅ‫‮‬
2.≁࡞ᐨ෫໩ലྡྷ࠿㢟ⴥ࡝ࡡࡢ⡷ᅗ༞᮶㒂࡛ࢡ࣭ࣛࣤࣚࣤࢺࡡ༞᮶ἀ
3.ࡊ࠾ࡊ࣓ࢸࣜࡡ㛏᭿ንິ࡞࠽ࡄࡾ⮤↓ንິ࡚᳠ᏽࡌࡾ࡛ࠉࡆࡡ୦ᆀᇡࡡᐨ෫໩ࢹࣝࣤࢺࡢ
᭯ណ࡚࡝࠷
4. 㛏᭿ንິ࡞࠽ࡄࡾ⮤↓ንິࢅ⏕࠷ࡒ᳠ᏽ࡞ࡻࡽࠉ᭯ណ࡝ࢹࣝࣤࢺ࡛ヾࡴࡼࡿࡾᆀⅤࡢ࡮࡯ࡌ࡬࡙Ὼᬦ໩ ࡈࡼ࡞ࠉ༞ᴗᅥࡡẴῺࡢ୕᪴ࡊ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࡡࡢࠉࡳࡊࢀࠔ༞ᴗᅥࡡẴῺ୕᪴ࡢ௙ࡡᆀᇡࡻࡽ㐔ࡿࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹ᑍ㛓ᐓࡡ஢ῼ࡛ᩒྙⓏ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ༞ᴗࡡ࿔ࡽࡡᾇᇡ࡚῕ᒒ࡛ࡡᾇỀࡡΊྙ࠿ኬࡀ࠷
ࡆ࡛࡝࡜࡞ࡻࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠊ࠷ࡍࡿ࡞ࡊࢀࠉୌ㒂ࡡᆀᇡࡡ⌟㇗㸝ౚ㸯ẴῺ఩ୖࡷ㜾㞯㔖ࡡቌኬ㸞ࢅ࡛ࡽ࠵ࡅ࡙ᆀ⌣ධమ࡚㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾലྡྷࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾㄵἪࡢࠉ㟸ᖏ࡞࣐ࢪ࣭ࣛࢸ࢔ࣤࢡ࡝ࡵ
ࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

12

㆗ㄵ 4. ⾠᫅࡞ࡻࡾふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ࡚ࡢῺᗐ୕᪴࠿ぜࡼࡿ࡝࠷㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.92㸞ࠊẴ㇗⾠᫅ NOAAࡡゝῼჹࡡࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡻࡾ༞༖⌣ࡡẴῺࡢࠉ25 ᖳ㛣ንࢂࡖ࡙࠽ࡼࡍࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ⌟㇗࠿࡝࠾ࡖ
ࡒࡼ㏣࡞᚜࠾࡞ୖ࠿ࡽẴ࿝࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.89㸰ờ⏛ 2006㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳ࡆࡆ࡚࠷࠹⾠᫅࡞ࡻࡾẴῺࡢࠉᑊὮᅥୖᒒࠉࡗࡱࡽ㧏ࡈ⣑ 2 km ࢅ୯ᚨ࡛ࡊ࡙ᩐ km ࡡཉࡈࢅࡵࡖࡒᒒࡡᖲᆍẴῺ࡚࠵ࡾࠊᆀ୕ẴῺ㸝ཋ์࡛ࡊ࡙ᆀ㟻࣬ᾇ㟻࠾ࡼ㧏ࡈ 2m ࡚ࡡẴῺ㸞࡛ྜྷࡋ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ ᑊὮᅥୖᒒẴῺࡢẴ⌣࡚ࡵふῼࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ2000 ᖳࡇࢀ࡞ᚋࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡒࢸ࣭ࢰ࡚
ࡢᑊὮᅥୖᒒẴῺ࡞ࡢࡢࡖࡀࡽࡊࡒ୕᪴ലྡྷ࠿࡝࠾ࡖࡒࠊࡐࡿࡢᆀ୕ẴῺ࡞୕᪴ലྡྷ࠿࠵ࡾࡆ
࡛࡛ㄵ⌦Ⓩ࡞□┢ࡌࡾࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷࠿ࠉẴು࣓ࢸࣜ࡞ࡻࡾ஢ῼゝ⟤࡛ࡢࡂ࠷ࡔ࠿ࡖ࡙࠷ࡒࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ᭩㎾ࡡ◂✪㸝Mears 2005㸰Sherwood et al., 2005㸞࡚ࠉ⾠᫅ふῼࠉẴ⌣ふῼࡐࡿࡑࡿࡡふῼᶭჹࡡㄏᕣ࠽ࡻࡦࡐࡡ⿭ḿᡥ㡨ࢅྨ࿝ࡊ࡙ゝ⟤ࡊ࡝࠽ࡊࡒ⤎ᯕ࡞ࡻࡿࡣࠉᑊὮᅥୖᒒẴῺ࡞ࡵ୕᪴ലྡྷ࠿ぜࡼࡿࡾࠊࡆࡿ࡚࣓ࢸࣜ࡞ࡻࡾ஢ῼ࡛ࡡ□┢ࡢ࡝ࡂ࡝ࡖࡒ㸝Santer 2005;
Hogan 2005㸞ࠊ ࣓ࢸࣜ࡞ࡻࡾ஢ῼ࠿ふῼࢸ࣭ࢰฌ⌦ࢅゖḿࡌࡾࡀࡖ࠾ࡄࢅࡵࡒࡼࡊࡒࢂࡄ࡚࠵ࡾࠊẴು࣓ࢸࣜ㛜Ⓠࡡ㐛⛤࡚ࡢふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࢅཤ↯ࡊ࡙ࢲ࣭ࣖࢼࣤࢡ㸝ㄢᩒ㸞ࢅ⾔࡝࠷ࡢࡌࡾ࠿ࠉࡵࡊࡐࡿ࠿
↋ฦื࡞⤎ᯕࡡᩐೋࢅふῼೋ࡞ྙࢂࡎࡾࡻ࠹࡝ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡖࡒࡼ࣓ࢸࣜࡢࡐࡡࡻ࠹࡝ㄕᚋງࢅ
ࡵࡒ࡝࠾ࡖࡒࡓࢀ࠹ࠊ

㆗ㄵ 5. ࣌ࢴࢢ࣭࣬ࢪࢷ࢔ࢴࢠㄵண࡚ࠉMann ࡼࡢ⮤ฦࡒࡔࡡᚗඔ᥆ᏽゝ⟤⤎ᯕࡡゖḿオ஥ࢅฝࡊࡒ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.94㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࣌ࢴࢢ࣭࣬ࢪࢷ࢔ࢴࢠㄵண࡛ࡢࠉ㐛ཡ 1000 ᖳࡡ⠂ᅑ࡚ 20 ୠ⣎࡞᛬⃥࡝Ὼᬦ໩࠿㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾ྫྷ࠾࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡡㄵண࡚࠵ࡽࠉMann et al. 㸝1998, 1999㸞࡞ࡻࡽ᥆ᏽࡈࡿࡒ໪༖⌣ᖲᆍẴῺࡡᚗඔ᭜⥲ࡡᙟ࠿࣌ࢴࢢ࣭࣬ࢪࢷ࢔ࢴࢠࡡࡻ࠹࡞ぜ࠻ࡾࡆ࡛࠾ࡼࡆࡡྞ๑࠿ࡗ࠷ࡒࠊᙴࡼࡡᚗඔ᥆
ᏽ᭜⥲ࡢࡐࡡ௥⾪ౚ࡛ࡊ࡙ IPCC㸝2001㸞࡞ࡵ᥎㍍ࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ20 ୠ⣎࠿㐛ཡ 1000 ᖳ㛣࡚㝷❟ࡖ࡙Ὼᬦ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ♟ࡌ㔔さ࡝ㄵᣈ࡛ࡈࡿࡒࠊࡐࡡᚃࠉMann ࡼࡢ 1998 ᖳࡡㄵᩝ࡞ᑊࡌࡾゖḿオ஥㸝Mann et al. 2004㸞ࢅ Nature ヽ࡞ᥞฝࡊࡒ࠿ࠉࡆࡿࡢฺ⏕ྊ⬗࡚࠵ࡖࡒࢸ࣭ࢰࡡ࠹ࡔ࡜
ࡿࢅᐁ㝷࡞᤿⏕ࡊࡒ࠾ࡡオ㏑࡞㛣㐢࠷࠿࠵ࡖࡒ࡛࠷࠹ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉㄵᩝࡡ⤎ᯕ࡞ࡢን᭞࠿࡝࠷
࡛᪺ゕࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉᙴࡼ⮤㌗࠿㐛ཡࡡㄵᩝࡡ⤎ㄵࡡㄏࡽࢅヾࡴࡒࡵࡡ࡚ࡢỬࡊ࡙࡝࠷ࠊ
ࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉῳ㎰㸝2005㸞ࡡࠔ᜴ࡊࡱࡁࡿࡡᤖ࡙ࡏࡽࡨࠕ࡛࠷࠹ᙟᐖࡢ஥ᐁ࡞ཬࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊMannࡼࡡᚗඔ᥆ᏽ࡞㛭ࡌࡾㄵணࡢࡆࡡ௙࡞ࡵ࠷ࡂࡗ࠾࠵ࡽࠉቌ⏛㸝2005㸞࠿ᩒ⌦ࢅモࡲ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡐ
ࡵࡐࡵࠉ㐛ཡ 1000 ᖳ㛣ࡡẴῺࡡᚗඔ᥆ᏽࡢ௙ࡡ◂✪ࢡ࣭ࣜࣈ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡵ⾔࡝ࢂࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉMannࡼࡡ௘஥ࡣ࠾ࡽ࡞Ἰ┘ࡌࡾࡡࡢᘋスⓏឺᗐ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊࡐࡿࡼࡡ◂✪ࡵྱࡴ࡙⥪ྙࡊ࡙ࡲࡾ࡛
㸝National Research Council 2006㸞ࠉ1000 ᖳ㛣ࡡ๑༖ࡡẴುᚗඔࡡࡣࡼࡗࡀࡢࡱࡓኬࡀ࠷࠿ࠉ᭩
㎾ 400 ᖳࡡ⠂ᅑ࡚ 20 ୠ⣎࠿㝷❟ࡖ࡙Ὼᬦ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ☔࠾࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

13

㆗ㄵ 6. ெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕ࡞ࡻࡿࡣࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡኬẴ୯⃨ᗐ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉᖲ
ᆍẴῺࡢ༟ㄢ࡞୕᪴ലྡྷࢅ♟ࡊࠉࡐࡡ୕᪴⋙ࡢ㎾ᖳ࡞㎾ࡘࡂ࡮࡜ኬࡀࡂ࡝ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊᐁ㝷࡞ふῼࡈࡿࡒᖲᆍẴῺࡡንິࡢࡆࡿ࡛ࡢ␏࡝ࡖࡒലྡྷࢅぜࡎ࡙࠷ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ๑ୠ⏲ኬᡋᚃࡡኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴⋙࠿ኬࡀࡂ࡝ࡖࡒ᫤᭿࡞ࠉ㏣࡞఩Ὼ໩ലྡྷࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ 㸝㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᆀ⌣ࡡᖲᆍẴῺࡢ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࡞ぜྙࡖࡒᖲ⾦≟ឺ࡞㐡ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉẴῺን໩࡞ࡢᵕࠍ࡝ᅄᏄ࠿࠵ࡾࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉኯ㝟Ὡິࡷℾᒜ࡛࠷ࡖࡒ⮤↓㉫″ᅄᏄࡵ࠵ࡽࠉ࣒ࢰࣤࡷࣆ
ࣞࣤ࡝࡜ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪௧አࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪࡵெⅥὩິ࡞ࡻࡽቌຊࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡆࡿࡼ࡛஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡛࠿ྙࢂࡈࡖ࡙20ୠ⣎ࡡẴῺ୕᪴ࡡཋᅄ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡓࡄ࠿ཋᅄ࡛ࡢࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࢅ࡛ࡾ◂✪⩽ࡡㄙࡵゕࡖ࡙࠷࡝࠷㸞ࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉẴῺ࡛஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿ࡧࡖࡒࡽᑊᚺࡊ࡝࠷ࡡࡢᚪࡍࡊࡵ୘ᛦ㆗࡝ࡆ࡛࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ๑ୠ⏲ኬᡋᚃࡡኬẴ୯ࡡ஦㓗
໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡ୕᪴⋙࠿ኬࡀࡂ࡝ࡖࡒ᫤᭿ࡢࠉℾᒜᄂℾ࡝࡜ࡡ⮤↓さᅄ㸝Wigley et al. 1997㸞࡛ெⅥ㉫″࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࡡ෫༴ຝᯕ㸝Tett et al. 2002; Nagashima et al. 2006㸞࠿Ὼᬦ໩ࢅᡬࡔᾐࡊ࡙
࠷ࡒ࡛࠷࠹ㄕ࠿᭯ງࡓ࠿ࠉẴುࡡහ㒂ንິ࡛࠷࠹ㄕࡵ࠵ࡾ㸝Andronova and Schlesinger, 2000;
Knight et al. 2005㸞ࠊࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝㐛ཡࡡ஥㇗ࡢࠉẴು࣓ࢸࣜ࡞ࡻࡾ 20 ୠ⣎ࡡ්⌟ᐁ㥺࡞ࡻࡖ࡙࠵ࡾ⛤ᗐ♟ࡌࡆ࡛࠿࡚ࡀࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ௫࡞஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡷ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜ࡝࡜ࡡெⅥ㉫″∸㈻ࡡቌຊ࠿↋࠷࡛࠷࠹᮪௲
࡚ࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘࣤࢅ⾔࠹࡛ࠉ㸝⮤↓ࡡንິさᅄ࡛Ẵುࡡහ㒂ንິࡓࡄ࡚ࡢ㸞20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖ࡡẴῺ୕᪴ࡡኬࡀࡈࡢ්⌟࡚ࡀ࡝࠷㸝ᅒ 2㸞ࠊࡆࡿࡼࡢࠉ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿ࠔཋᅄࠕ࡚Ὼᗐ࠿ࠔ⤎ᯕࠕ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅᙁࡂ♟ြࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ             

ᅒ 2. Ẵು࣓ࢸࣜ࡞ࡻࡾࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘࣤ⤎ᯕ                 ฝᡜ㸯Shiogama et al.㸝2006㸞ࢅᨭን

14 ࡝࠽ࠉẴುንິࢅ஢ῼࡌࡾẴು࣓ࢸࣜࡢࠉ⤊ῥ࣓ࢸ࡛ࣜྜྷᵕ࡞ࠉࡱࡍ㐛ཡ࠽ࡻࡦ⌟ᅹࡡ஥㇗㸝ౚ㸯ᵕࠍ࡝さᅄ࡞ࡻࡾῺᗐን໩㸞ࢅ஥ᚃⓏ࡞࠹ࡱࡂ්⌟࡚ࡀࡾ࠾࡜࠹࠾࡞ࡻࡖ࡙᳠ッࡈࡿࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝᳠ッࢅ⤊࡙῀ụࡈࡿ࡙ࡀࡒ᭩᩺ࡡẴು࣓ࢸࣜࡢࠉౚ࠻ࡣῺᗐ୕᪴ࡡᆀᇡᕣ࡝
࡜ࡵ࠾࡝ࡽḿ☔࡞්⌟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ᐁࡢࠉ๑㏑ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ㛏࠷㛣ࠉ࣓ࢸࣜ࠿஢᝷ࡌࡾᆀ⌣୕✭ࡡῺᗐ୕࡛᪴Ẵ㇗⾠᫅࠽ࡻࡦẴ⌣࡞ࡻࡾࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡻࡾῺᗐふῼࡡࡍࡿ࠿ၡ㢗࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ᠔␪Ὤࡡ᰹ይࡡᨯᦹࡡⓏ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷
ࡒࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ᭩᩺ࡡ▩ぜ࡚ࡢࠉ⾠᫅ࢸ࣭ࢰ࡝࡜ࡡ᪁࡞㸝⿭ḿࡡ㸞ㄏࡽ࠿࠵ࡖࡒࡆ࡛࠿᪺ࡼ࠾࡞
࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ᮇ✇ࡡ㆗ㄵ 4 ࢅཤ↯㸞ࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉ๑࡞ࡵ㏑࡬ࡒࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ⤎ᯕⓏ࡞࣓ࢸࣜࡡ஢ῼ
࠿⌟ᐁࡡふῼࡡㄏࡽࢅᣞᦤࡊࡒࡆ࡛࡞࡝ࡽࠉࡆࡡ஥ࡢ࣓ࢸࣜࡡ⤎ᯕࢅ⌟ᐁࡡᩐᏊ࡞㎾ࡘࡄࡾࡻ࠹࡝ࢲ࣭ࣖࢼࣤࢡ㸝ㄢᩒ㸞࠿↋ฦื࡞ࡢ࡝ࡈࡿ࡙ࡢ࠷࡝࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡡ㛣᥃Ⓩッ᪺࡞ࡵ࡝ࡖ࡙
࠷ࡾࠊࡈࡼ࡞ࠉẴುᏕ⩽ࡢࠉẴು࣓ࢸࣜࢅ⏕࠷࡙ 1991 ᖳ࡞㉫ࡀࡒࣆ࢔ࣛࣅࣤࡡࣅࢻࢵ࣍ℾᒜᄂℾᚃࡡẴῺ఩ୖࢅᄂℾ├ᚃ࡞஢ῼࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡵᠺຉࡊࡒࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉ㝀ࡼࡿࡒᩐࡡ஥㇗ࡡࡲ
࡚ࡢ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉ㐛ཡࡓࡄ࡚࡝ࡂᑑᮮ஢ῼ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡵ࣓ࢸࣜࡢୌᏽࡡ᳠ッࢅུࡄ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡒࡓࡊࠉ⌟᫤Ⅴ࡚࣓ࢸࣜࡡ᳠ッ࠿ࠔ༎ฦࠕ࡚࠵ࡾ࠾ࡢㄙ࡞ࡵึ࡚᩷ࡀ࡝࠷ࠊ௑ᚃࡵ࣓ࢸ࡛ࣜ
ふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࡡ୘ୌ⮬࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࠉ࣓ࢸࣜࢅᨭⰃࡌࡾ࠾ࠉふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࡡよ㔐ࢅ්᳠ゞࡌࡾ࠾࡛࠷࠹
ႜࡲ࠿୘᩷࡞⤾ࡂࡡ࡚࠵ࡾ࠿ࠉࡐࡿࡢ┷ࡖᙔ࡝ࠔ⛁Ꮥࠕࡡႜࡲ࡞௙࡝ࡼ࡝࠷ࠊ㔔さ࡝Ⅴࡢࠉୠ⏲୯࡚≺❟࡞㛜Ⓠࡈࡿࡒኣࡂࡡ࣓ࢸࣜ࠿ࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝୘᩷ࡡ᳠ッࢅུࡄ⤾ࡄ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ⌟᫤Ⅴ࡚ࡐ
ࡡධ࡙࠿ᑑᮮࡡῺᬦ໩ലྡྷࢅ஢ῼࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

㆗ㄵ 7. ᭩㎾ࡡῺᬦ໩ࡢ୹࡞ኯ㝟Ὡິࡡᙫ㡢࡚࠵ࡾࠊッᣈ 1. 㐛ཡ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢኯ㝟Ὡິࡡࣝ࣊ࣜࢅ♟ࡌ㯦Ⅴᩐ࡛Ὼᗐ࡛ࡡ┞㛭㛭౿࠿ふࡼࡿࡾ㸝ờ⏛
2006㸰㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ☔࠾࡞㐛ཡࡡẴುንິ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢኯ㝟Ὡິ࠿ኬࡀ࡝ᙫ㡢ࢅ୙࠻࡙࠷ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࡵࠉ㐛ཡ࡞࠽ࡄࡾኯ㝟Ὡິࡡᙫ㡢ࢅྫྷᏽࡊ࡙ࡢ࠷࡝࠷ࠊᅒ 3 ࡢ㐛ཡࡡኯ㝟ᨲᑏ㔖ࡡ⤊ᖳን໩ࢅ♟ࡌ࠿ࠉ㔔さ࡝࣎࢕ࣤࢹࡢࠉ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢኯ㝟Ὡິ࠿ὩⓆ໩ࡌࡾലྡྷࡢぜࡼࡿࡍࠉ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖ࡡ᛬⃥࡝Ὼᬦ໩ࡢኯ㝟Ὡິ࡚ࡢㄕ᪺࡚ࡀ࡝࠷ࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡾ
㸝Solanki and Krivova 2003; Foukal et al. 2006㸞ࠊࡆࡡࡆ࡛ࡢẴು࣓ࢸࣜࢅ⏕࠷ࡒࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘ
࡚ࣤࡵ♟ြࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝๑ฝࡡᅒ 2㸞ࠊ࡝࠽ࠉ᭩㎾࡚ࡢ⾠᫅ふῼ௧๑ࡡኯ㝟ᨲᑏ㔖⤊ᖳን໩ࡡ᥆
ᏽ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉ11 ᖳ࿔᭿ࡻࡽࡵ㛏᭿ࡡን໩ࡢ㐛ኬフ౮࡚࠵ࡾ࡛࠷࠹⩻࠻࠿ᙁࡱࡖ࡙࠽ࡽ㸝Lean etal. 2002; Wang et al. 2005㸞ࠉᐁ㝷࡞ࡢኯ㝟Ὡິ࠿Ẵು࡞ཀྵ࡯ࡌᙫ㡢ࡢࡈࡼ࡞ᑚࡈ࠷ྊ⬗ᛮ࠿࠵ࡾࠊ

15             ᅒ 3 ኯ㝟Ὡິࡡኬࡀࡈࡡ᥆⛛    ฝᡜ㸯 CLIVAR/PAGES Newsletter Vol.13, No.3, p.14

Ἰ㸯୕ࡡ᪁ࡡᅒࡢࠉFröhlich and Lean㸝2004㸞࡞ࡻࡾኯ㝟ᨲᑏ㔖ࡡふῼ⤎ᯕࢅ♟ࡌࠊୖࡡ᪁ࡡᅒ࡚ࡢࠉỀⰅࡡ㝔ᙫ㒂࠿Lean㸝2000㸞࡞ࡻࡖ්࡙ᵋ⠇ࡈࡿࡒ㐛ཡࡡኯ㝟ᨲᑏ㔖ࡡን໩࡚࠵ࡽࠉ11ᖳࡡ⛛ິᖲᆍࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡵ࠹ୌࡗࡡࣅࣤࢠⰅࡡᢙࡿ⥲ࢡࣚࣆࡢࠉWang et al.㸝2005㸞࡞ࡻࡾࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘࣤ⤎ᯕ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ
ࡆࡿࡼ࠾ࡼࠉ20ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢኯ㝟Ὡິ࠿ὩⓆ໩ࡌࡾലྡྷ࠿ぜࡼࡿ࡝࠷ࡆ࡛࠿ฦ࠾ࡾࠊ

ッᣈ 2. Ꮻᏼ⥲ࡡ㔖࡛Ὼᗐ࡛ࡡ┞㛭㛭౿࠿ふࡼࡿࡾ㸝௿⸠ 2003㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 Ꮻᏼ⥲࠿㞴ࡡᙟᠺ࡞ᙫ㡢ࢅ࠽ࡻ࡯ࡊࠉࡐࡿ࠿ 20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖ࡡẴῺࡡ୕᪴࡞ࡗ࡝࠿ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛
࠷࠹⌦ㄵࡢࠉࡊࡣࡊࡣெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࢅᢀึࡌࡾᮞᩩ࡛ࡊ࡙⏕࠷ࡼࡿࡾࠊࡊ࠾
ࡊࠉᏫᏼ⥲࡛㞴ࡡᙟᠺ࡛ࡡᅄᯕ㛭౿࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉ1㸞⌦ㄵⓏ࡝ッ᪺࠿୘༎ฦ࡚࠵ࡾࠉ2㸞Ꮻᏼ⥲ࡡ㔖࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉ
㸝㞴ࡡᙟᠺ࡞ࡻࡾῺᗐ୕᪴ࢅㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࡡ࡞ᚪさ࡝㸞㛏᭿Ⓩലྡྷ࠿ぜࡼࡿ࡝࠷ࠉ3㸞ࡆࡡㄕࡡᥞ၌⩽࡚࠵ࡾㄵᩝࡡゝ⟤⮤మ࡞ၡ㢗࠿࠵ࡾࠉ࡝࡜࠿ᣞᦤࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Damon and Laut16

2004㸞
ࠊࡱࡒࠉ1㸞Ꮻᏼ⥲࡛┞㛭࠿㧏࠷࡛ࡈࡿࡾୖᒒ㞴㔖ࡢ⾠᫅ࡡ㉝አࣁࣤࢺࡡࡲ࠾ࡼịࡴࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡐࡵࡐࡵ㉝አࡡࡲ࠾ࡼịࡴࡒୖᒒ㞴㔖ࡢ⌟ᐁࡡ㞴㔖ࡡࡻ࠷ᣞᵾ࡚࡝࠷ࠉ2㸞ྊっ㸠㉝አ࠾ࡼịࡴࡒୖᒒ㞴㔖㸝⌟ᐁ࡛ࡡᑊᚺ࠿ࡻ࠷㸞࡛Ꮻᏼ⥲࡛ࡡ┞㛭ࡢᝇ࠷ࠉ3㸞㉝አࡡࡲ࠾ࡼ
ịࡴࡒୖᒒ㞴㔖࡛Ꮻᏼ⥲ࡡ┞㛭ࡵࢸ࣭ࢰࢅ 1994 ᖳ௧㜾࡞ᘇ㛏ࡌࡾ࡛┞㛭࠿ᝇࡂ࡝ࡾࠉ࡝࡜࠿
᪺ࡼ࠾࡞࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡈࡼ࡞ࠉ1994 ᖳ௧㜾ࡡ⾠᫅ࢸ࣭ࢰฌ⌦࡞ၡ㢗࠿࠵ࡾ࡛࠷࠹ᣞᦤࡵ࡝ࡈࡿ
ࡒ࠿ࠉࡐࡡྊ⬗ᛮ࠿఩࠷ࡆ࡛ࢅ♟ࡌ◂✪⤎ᯕࡵⓆ⾪ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Sun and Bradley 2004㸞ࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉ◂✪⩽ࡡ㛣࡚ࡢࠉᏫᏼ⥲ࡡ㔖࡛Ὼᗐ࡛ࡡ┞㛭㛭౿ࡢಘ㢏ᛮ࠿ࡐࡿ࡮࡜㧏ࡂ࡝࠷ୌࡗࡡ
௫ㄕ࡞࡛࡜ࡱࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ3ࠊ

㆗ㄵ 8. 20 ୠ⣎ࡡ㛣࡞ࠉࢡ࣭ࣞࣁࣜ࣬ࢸ࢔࣐ࣤࢡ㸝ᆀ⌣ᬧ໩㸞࡛࿣ࡣࡿࡾ⌟㇗࠿㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ
ࡆࡿࡢᆀ୕࡞㐡ࡌࡾኯ㝟ᨲᑏࡡ΅ᑛ࡚࠵ࡽࠉཋᅄࡢ◪㓗࢙࣭ࣞࢯ࡛ࣜ⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡆࡡ◪㓗࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࡢࠉெⅥ㉫″ࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪ࡞ࡻࡾῺᬦ໩ࡻࡽࡵኬࡀ࡝ᐨ෫໩ࢅࡵࡒࡼࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ
ࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡵࡊࠉࡐࡿ࡞ࡵ࠾࠾ࢂࡼࡍẴῺ࠿୕᪴ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡝ࡼࡣࠉῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪ௧አ࡞ࡐ
ࡿࡻࡽࡵኬࡀ࡝Ὼᬦ໩ࢅࡵࡒࡼࡌさᅄ࠿഼࠷࡙࠷ࡾࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ㸝௿⸠ 2005㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳
 20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡚᪝ᑏ࠿΅ᑛലྡྷ࡞࠵ࡾ࡛࠷࠹ふῼ஥ᐁ࠾ࡼẴῺ఩ୖࢅࡵࡒࡼࡌ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࢡ࣭ࣞࣁࣜ࣬ࢸ࢔࣐ࣤࢡ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉ1㸞ふῼࡈࡿࡒ᪝ᑏࡡ΅ᑛࡢࠉධ⌣Ⓩ࡝⌟㇗࡚ࡢ࡝
ࡂࠉᑻᆀⓏࡱࡒࡢᆀᇡⓏ࡝⌟㇗࡚࠵ࡾ㸝Alpert et al. 2005㸞
ࠉ2㸞 ᪝ᑏࡡふῼೋࡢ 1985 ᖳ㡥ࢅሾ࡞΅ᑛലྡྷ࠾ࡼቌຊലྡྷ࡞㌹ࡋ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ඙㐅ᅗ࡚ኬẴỗ᯹∸㈻ࡡᤴฝぞโ࠿ጙࡱࡖࡒ᫤᭿࡛ྙ
⮬ࡌࡾ㸝Wild et al. 2005㸞ࠉ࡝࡜ࡡ◂✪⤎ᯕ࠿ฝ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ௑ࡱ࡚㆗ㄵࡈࡿ࡙ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜ
ࡡຝᯕ࡚࡮࡛ࢆ࡜ㄕ᪺࡚ࡀࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠊ࡝࠽ࠉ㎾ᖳࡡῺᬦ໩ࡡ㆗ㄵࡷᐁ㝷ࡡ࣓ࢸࣜゝ⟤࡚ࡢࠉ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࡷᑊὮᅥ࢛ࢯࣤࡡᙫ㡢ࡢࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡛୩ࢆ࡚ࡐࡡຝᯕ࠿ࡌ࡚࡞ᏽ㔖Ⓩ࡞⩻៎ࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡐࡡኬࡀࡈࡵࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾῺᬦ໩ࢅᡬࡔᾐࡌࡻ࠹࡝ࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࡆ࡛࠿᪺
ࡼ࠾࡞࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ

㆗ㄵ 9. ኬẴỗ᯹࠿Ὼᬦ໩ࡡཋᅄ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾྊ⬗ᛮ࠿࠵ࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸰ᵌ⏛ 2006㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ኬẴỗ᯹∸㈻࡚࠵ࡾ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࡡẴುᙫ㡢ࡢ⛸㢦࡞ࡻࡖ࡙␏࡝ࡾࠊ◪㓗ᾦ⁪࡝࡜ࡡ࢙࣭ࣞࢯ
ࣜࡢࠉࡐࡿ⮤㌗࠿ኯ㝟කࢅᩋ஗࣬ཬᑏࡌࡾࡓࡄ࡚࡝ࡂࠉ㞴ฆ⤎ᰶ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙㞴ࡡ࢓ࣜ࣊ࢺࡷᑋ࿤
ࢅን໩ࡈࡎࠉᆀ୕ẴῺࢅୖࡅࡾຝᯕࢅᣚࡗࠊୌ᪁ࠉ↬ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ኯ㝟කࢅࡻࡂྺ཭ࡌࡾ࢙࣭ࣞࢯ

3 ኯ㝟Ὡິࡡᙫ㡢࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉレ⣵࡝᭩᩺ࡡ⥪ㄕ࡛ࡊ࡙௧ୖࢅཤ↯ࡎࡻࠊThe Influence of Solar Changes on

the Earth's Climate. L.J. Gray, J.D. Haigh, R.G. Harrison. Hadley Centre Technical Note 62, January 2005.
㸝www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/pubs/HCTN/index.html㸞ࠊ࡝࠽ࠉSolanki et al.㸝2004㸞ࡡㄵᩝ࡞
ᑊࡊࠉ᭩㎾ࡡኯ㝟Ὡິࡢ࡛ࡂ࡞␏ᖏ࡝࡚ࣝ࣊ࣜࡢ࡝࠷࡛࠷࠹ཬㄵ࠿ฝࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Muscheler et al. 2005㸞ࠊࡒࡓࡊࠉኯ㝟Ὡິ࠿ᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ໩ࡡ୹さ࡝さᅄ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷࡛࠷࠹Ⅴ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢྜྷࡋぜよ࠿㏑࡬ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ

17ࣜࡢࠉࡐࡡᏋᅹࡌࡾ࡛ࡆࢀࡡ✭Ẵࢅᬦࡴࠉሔྙ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡢᆀ୕ẴῺࢅ㧏ࡴࡾྊ⬗ᛮ࠿࠵ࡾࠊࡱ
ࡒࠉ㞯ể㟻࡝࡜࡞௛╌ࡊ࡙ᆀ⾪㟻࢓ࣜ࣊ࢺࢅን໩ࡈࡎࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡽࠉᆀ୕௛㎾ࡡኬẴࢅᬦࡴࡾຝᯕࡵᣚࡗࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᆀ୕ẴῺࢅ㧏ࡴࡾࡆࡿࡼࡡຝᯕࡢࠉ◪㓗ᾦ⁪࡝࡜ࡡ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜ࡞ࡻࡾ෫
༴ຝᯕ࡛Ẓ࡬࡙ᩐฦࡡୌ⛤ᗐ࡚࠵ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Hansen et al. 2005b㸞ࠊࡱࡒࠉ࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜ࠿㔔さࡓ࠾ࡼ࡛࠷ࡖ࡙ࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡝࡜ࡡẴమᠺฦ࠿㔔さ࡚࡝࠷ࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉ୦᪁ࡡຝᯕ
ࡢභᏋࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊẴು࣓ࢸࣜࢅ⏕࠷ࡒࢨ࣐࣭ࣖࣝࢨࣘࣤ࡞ࡻࡿࡣࠉ20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞࠽ࡄࡾᆀ୕ẴῺࡡ⤊ᖳን໩ࡢࠉ➠ 1 ࡞஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡝࡜ࡡẴమᠺฦࠉ➠ 2 ࡞㸝ኬẴỗ᯹࡞ࡻࡾ㸞◪㓗ᾦ⁪ࡡࡻ࠹࡝࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࢅ⩻៎ࡌࡾ࡛ࡻࡂㄕ᪺࡚ࡀࡾ㸝Tett et al.2002㸞ࠊ↬ࡷᅰቫ⢇Ꮔ࡝࡜ࡡ࢙࣭ࣞࢯ
ࣜࡡຝᯕࡢࡐࡿࡼ࡞Ẓ࡬ࡿࡣ๧ḗⓏ࡛ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ

㆗ㄵ 10. ࢵࣁࣜࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡢࠉࡆࡆ 25 ᖳࡡን໩ࡢࢭ࡚ࣞ࠵ࡾ㸝ῳ㎰ 2005, p.96㸞ࠊ䠎ཬㄵ䠐ࡱࡍୌ⯙ㄵ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉᾇ㟻Ềనࡢ௛㎾ࡡᾇὮࡡ⮤↓ንິࡷᆀ┑ࡡንິ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡵᙫ㡢ࢅུࡄࡾࠊ
ࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉୌ㒂ࡡᆀᇡ࡚ᾇ㟻୕᪴࠿ぜࡼࡿ࡝࠷ࡆ࡛ࡢ≁ื࡞࠽࠾ࡊ࠷ࡆ࡛࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉࡐࡿ࠿
├ࡔ࡞ࠉᐁ㝷࡞㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛࠿᪺ࡼ࠾࡝ධ⌣Ⓩ࡝ᾇ㟻୕᪴ࢹࣝࣤࢺࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾッᣈ࡞ࡢ࡝ࡼ
࡝࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉୌ㒂ࡡᆀᇡࡡ⌟㇗ࢅ࡛ࡽ࠵ࡅ࡙ධమࡡലྡྷࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾㄵἪࡢࠉ㟸ᖏ࡞࣐ࢪ࣭ࣛࢸ
࢔ࣤࢡ࡝ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡐࡡⅤࢅᣞᦤࡊࡒ࠹࠻࡚ࠉࢵࣁࣜࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴ࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ཬㄵࡌࡾࠊ
ῳ㎰㸝2005㸞࠿୹ᘿࡡ᰷ᣈ࡛ࡊ࡙ᘤ⏕ࡌࡾࢗ࢘ࣇࢦ࢕ࢹ㸝http://john-daly.com/㸞࡚ࡢࠉࢵࣁࣜ
ࡡ㤫㒌ࣆࢻࣆࢲ࡞ス⨠ࡈࡿࡒࣀ࣠࢕ኬᏕࡡ₳నゝ࡞ࡻࡾ 1977 ᖳࠤ1999 ᖳᮆࡱ࡚ࡡ⣑ 22 ᖳ㛣ࡡ᭮ื₳నゝῼࢸ࣭ࢰࢅࢡࣚࣆ࡛ࡊ࡙♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊῳ㎰㸝2005㸞ࡢࡐࡡࢡࣚࣆࢅぜ࡙ࠉ≺⮤ࡡึ࡚᩷ࠔࡆࡆ 25 ᖳࡡን໩ࡢࢭࣞࠕ࡛㏑࡬࡙࠷ࡾ࠿ࠉᐁ㝷࡞ࡢࠉNTC㸝National Tidal Centre inAustralian Bureau of Meteorology㸞࠿ 2005 ᖳ 6 ᭮࡞ප⾪ࡊࡒᅗื࣭ࣝ࣎ࢹ㸝NTC 2005㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉྜྷࣀ࣠࢕ኬᏕࡡ₳నゝࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡻࡾ 22 ᖳ㛣ࡡᾇ㟻ን໩ࢹࣝࣤࢺࡢ+0.9mm/ᖳ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡿ
ࡢ᭩᩺ࡡ IPCC ሒ࿈᭡㸝IPCC 2007㸞࡞ࡻࡾ 1961 ᖳࠤ2003 ᖳࡡධ⌣ᖲᆍࡡᾇ㟻ን໩ࢹࣝࣤࢺ
㸝1.8mm/ᖳ㸞࡛ྜྷ࢛࣭ࢱ࣭ࡡᩐೋ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ↋っ࡚ࡀࡾ࡮࡜ᑚࡈ࠷ࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊࡐࡡࢡࣚࣆࡡ
⦢㍂㸝₳నゝࡡゝῼೋ㸞ࡡࣝࣤࢩ࠿-0.5mࠤ2.75m ࡛ᗀ࠷ࡒࡴࠉࡐࡡᅒࢅぜࡒࡓࡄ࡚ 0.9mm/ᖳࡡ୕᪴ࢹࣝࣤࢺ㸝22 ᖳ㛣࡚⣑ 2cm ࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴㸞ࢅぜฝࡌࡆ࡛ࡢῳ㎰㸝2005㸞࡞࡛ࡖ࡙ᅏ㞬࡚࠵ࡖࡒ࠾ࡵࡊࡿ࡝࠷࠿ࠉྜྷࢡࣚࣆࢅᘤ࠷࡙ࡀ࡙ࠔࡆࡆ 25 ᖳࡡን໩ࡢࢭࣞࠕ࡛ึ᩷ࡌࡾࡡࡢ୘
㐲ว࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡒࡓࡊࠉࡆࡡࣀ࣠࢕ኬᏕ₳నゝࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡢืࡡၡ㢗࠿࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ NTC ࡡᅗื࣭ࣝ࣎ࢹࡢᣞᦤࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡢἸណ࠿ᚪさ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ㛏᭿ࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴ലྡྷࢅふῼࡌࡾࡒࡴ࡞ࡢࠉ
ᆀ┑ỷୖ➴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙₳నゝࡐࡡࡵࡡࡡス⨠㧏ࡈ࠿ንࢂࡾᙫ㡢ࢅ⿭ḿ㸝ᇱ‵㟻⿭ḿ㸞ࡌࡾᚪさ࠿࠵ࡾ࠿ࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡷ▯᭿Ⓩ࡝ᾇὊᣲິࢅふῼࡌࡾࡒࡴ࡞スゝࡈࡿࡒࡆࡡ₳నゝ࡚ࡢ⿭ḿ࠿୘ྊ⬗࡚࠵ࡽࠉ+0.9mm/ᖳ࡛࠷࠹ᩐೋࡡ୘☔ᐁᛮࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞ኬࡀࡂࠉࡐࡡᩐೋࡡࡲࢅࡵࡖ࡙ࣆࢻ
ࣆࢲ࡞࠽ࡄࡾᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡡ㛏᭿ࢹࣝࣤࢺࢅ᩷ᏽฝᮮ࡝࠷ࡆ࡛࠿ᣞᦤࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࣆࢻࣆࢲ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙࠷࠻ࡣࠉ㇞ᕗᅗ㝷㛜Ⓠᑻࡡ㈠㔘ᥴຐ࡞ࡻࡽス⨠ࡈࡿࡒ㸝ᇱ‵㟻⿭ḿࡈࡿࡒ㸞⢥ᗐⰃ࠷₳నゝ࡞ࡻࡾืࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰࡵᏋᅹࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡆࡡふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ᇱࡘࡀࠉふῼ㛜ጙ㸝1993 ᖳ㸞࠾ࡼ᭩

18

㎾㸝2005 ᖳ㸞ࡱ࡚ࡡᾇ㟻ን໩ࢹࣝࣤࢺࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉ1997 ᖳࠤ1998 ᖳࡡ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞㛭㏻ࡊࡒ
ୌ᫤Ⓩ࡝ᾇ㟻ୖ㜾࠿࠵ࡖࡒ࡞ࡵ㛭ࢂࡼࡍࠉ+4.3mm/ᖳࡡᾇ㟻ን໩ࢹࣝࣤࢺ࠿࠵ࡖࡒࡆ࡛࠿ฦ࠾
ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ౪↓ふῼ᭿㛣࠿▯࠷ࡆ࡛࠾ࡼࠉ㛏᭿Ⓩ࡝ࢹࣝࣤࢺࢅ᩷ᏽࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢฝᮮ࡝࠷࠿ࠉ1993
ᖳࠤ2005 ᖳࡡ᭿㛣࡞ࡗ࠷࡙࠷࠻ࡣࠉࢵࣁ࡚ࣜࡢᾇ㟻୕᪴࠿࠵ࡖࡒ࡛࠷࠻ࡾࠊ࡝࠽ࠉ⌟ᅹࠉࢵࣁࣜ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢὝỀ࡞ࡻࡾ⿍ᐐ࠿⏊ኬ࡞࡝ࡽࡗࡗ࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝≟Ἓ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢ Patal㸝2006㸞ࢅཤ↯ࡈࡿࡒ࠷ࠊ

3.2. ⅛⣪ᚘ⎌࡞㛭ࡌࡾ㆗ㄵᵌ⏛㸝2006ࠉ2007㸞ࡡ㆗ㄵࡡ୯ᚨࢅ࡝ࡌㄵⅤ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉࠔ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿ቌ࠻࡙࠷ࡾ࠾ࡼᆀ⌣࠿Ὼᬦ໩ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉᆀ⌣࠿Ὼᬦ໩ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾ࡼ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿ቌ࠻࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠕ࡛࠷
࠹୹ᘿ࠿࠵ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡵᇱᮇⓏ࡞ྜྷࡋ୹ᘿࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᮇ⟿࡚ࡢࠉࡆࡡ୹ᘿࢅ
ᨥᣚࡌࡾッᣈ࡛ࡊ࡙ᙴࡼ࠿ᥞฝࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙㆗ㄵࡊࠉᙴࡼࡡ୹ᘿ࠿ㄏよ࡞ᇱࡘ࠷ࡒ
ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ♟ࡌࠊ㆗ㄵ 11. ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࡞ࡻࡾᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ໩ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉẴῺ୕᪴࠿஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࡡཋ
ᅄ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸰ᵌ⏛ 2006㸰㎾⸠ 2006㸰ᵌ⏛ 2007㸞ࠊッᣈ 1. ౚ࠻ࡣࠉ Keeling et al.㸝1989㸞ࡡࢡࣚࣆ㸝ᅒ 4㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉẴῺࡡን໩ࡢ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡን໩ࡻࡽࡵ༖ᖳ᪡ࡂ⌟ࡿࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005㸰ᵌ⏛ 2006㸰ᵌ⏛ 2007㸞ࠊ

ᅒ4. ふῼೋ࠾ࡼ㛏᭿Ⓩ࡝୕᪴ലྡྷ࡛Ꮢ⟿ን໩ࢅཱིࡽ㝎࠷ࡒኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐንິ࡛ẴῺንິࡡ㛭౿                       ฝᡜ㸯᰷ᮇ㸝1994㸞, p.151

19

㸱ཬㄵ㸳
ᅒ 4 ࡢࠉKeeling et al.㸝1989㸞࡞ࡻࡾୌࡗࡡࢡࣚࣆࢅ᰷ᮇ㸝1994㸞࠿᪝ᮇ࡞⣺௒ࡊࡒࡵࡡࡓ
࠿ࠉࡆࡡᅒࢅࡵࡖ࡙஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡንິ࠿ᖏ࡞ẴῺ࡞㏛㝮ࡌࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡾࡡࡢᣉኬよ㔐࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࡝
ࡏ࡝ࡼࡣࠉࡆࡡࢡࣚࣆࡢࠉ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡ࠿ࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡ㛏᭿Ⓩ࡝୕᪴ലྡྷ㸝Ҹெ㛣Ὡິࡡᙫ㡢㸞ࢅ㝎࠷ࡒሔྙࡡẴῺ୕࡛᪴஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕࡛᪴ࡡ㛭౿ࢅ᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ࡌࡾ┘Ⓩ࡚షᠺࡊࡒ
ࢡࣚࣆ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ࠵ࡾ≁ᏽࡡ᫤㛣ࢪࢢ࣭ࣜ࡞࠽ࡄࡾẴῺ୕࡛᪴ኬẴ୯ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕࡛᪴ࡡ
┞㛭㛭౿ࢅ♟ࡊࡒࡵࡡࡓ࠾ࡼ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࢡࣚࣆ࡚ࡢῺᗐ୕᪴࠿஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡ⃨ᗐ୕᪴࡞඙⾔ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ぜ࠻ࡾ⌦⏜࡛ࡊ࡙࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡ⮤㌗࠿ࠔ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠕ࡛᪺ゕࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ
࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡ࠿࡜ࡡࡻ࠹࡝ណᅒ࡚ᅒ 4 ࢅషᠺࡊࡒ࠾࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢࠉᙴ⮤㌗ࡡ᪝ᮇ࡚ࡡㅦⁿ㘋࡚࠵ࡾ Keeling㸝1993㸞ࠉࡈࡼ࡞Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡞࠽ࡄࡾ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡࡡᴏ⦴࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡ㏛ᝒㅦⁿ㘋࡚ࡵ࠵ࡾ Hansen㸝2005a㸞ࢅࡐࡿࡑࡿཤ↯ࡊ࡙࡮ࡊ࠷ࠊ࡝࠽㛭㏻ฦ㔕ࡡᑍ㛓ᐓࡡኣࡂ࡞
࡛ࡖ࡙ᖏㆉ࡚ࡢ࠵ࡾ࠿ࠉ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡ⮤㌗ࡢ⏍ᾥῺᬦ໩ㄵࢅᨥᣚࡊ࡙࠷ࡒࡆ࡛ࢅ௛ࡄຊ࠻࡙࠽ࡂࠊ
ᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡢ࣭࢞ࣛࣤࢡ࠿Ὼᬦ໩ㄵᨥᣚ࠾ࡼ୘ᨥᣚࡡ❟ሔ࡞㌹ྡྷࡊࡒ࠾ࡡࡻ࠹࡝༰㇗ࢅ୙࠻
ࡾオ㏑ࢅࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࠿ࠉKeeling㸝1993㸞ࡢㅦⁿ㘋࡚ኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡ㛏᭿Ⓩ୕᪴࠿ெ㛣Ὡິࡡᙫ㡢࡚࠵ࡾ࡛㏑࡬࡙࠽ࡽࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡡ୹ᘿ࡛ࡢ┞ᐖࡿ࡝࠷ࠊ ἑᐋ㸝2005㸞࡞࠵ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡝࡜ࡡ⮤↓㉫″࡞ࡻࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐንິᣲᖕࡢ
0.5 ppm ⛤ᗐࠉንິࡡ≁ᚡⓏ࡝ࢰ࢕࣑ࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡢᩐᖳ⛤ᗐ࡚࠵ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉኬẴኬᚘ⎌࣓ࢸࣜࢅ⏕࠷ࡒᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ໩ᐁ㥺࡞࠽࠷࡙㸡100ᖳ⛤ᗐࡡࢰ࢕࣑ࢪࢢ࣭࡚ࣜ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿350ppm ࠾ࡼ700ppm ࡞ಶቌࡊࡒ࡛ࡀࡡ඼ᆵⓏ࡝᪴Ὼᖕ࠿2ࠤ6Υ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝IPCC➠୔ḗሒ࿈᭡㸞ࡆ࡛ࢅ⩻࠻
ࡾ࡛ࠉᅒ4ࡡᣲᖕ࣬ࢰ࢕࣑ࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞ᑚࡈ࡝ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ⌟ᅹ㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾῺᗐ୕᪴࡞ࡢ
࡮࡛ࢆ࡜ᙫ㡢ࢅ୙࠻࡝࠷࡚ࣝ࣊ࣜ࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝ሔྙࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡢུິⓏ࡝ኬẴᠺฦ࡛ࡊ࡙ᣲࡾ⯑࠷ࠉẴῺࡷ㜾Ề࡛࠷ࡖࡒ⎌ሾ᮪௲ࡡንິࡡᙫ㡢ࢅུࡄࡐࡿࡼࡻࡽన┞ࡡ㐔ࡿࡒንິࢅ
♟ࡌࠊୌ᪁ࠉ20ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗ࡡሔྙࡢࠉኬࡀ࡝⃨ᗐን໩࠿㛏᭿㛣࡞ࢂࡒࡖ࡙⤾ࡂࡒࡴᨲᑏࣁࣚࣤࢪࡡን໩ࢅ㏳ࡋẴῺࢅ⬗ິⓏ࡞ን࠻ࡾさᅄ࡛ࡊ഼࡙ࡂࠊ
࡝࠽ࠉᅒ4ࡡ㛭౿ࢅᩔ⾕ࡊ࡙஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡ㛏᭿Ⓩ୕᪴ࢅㄕ᪺ࡊࡻ࠹࡛ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉ25ᗐ࡛࠷ࡖࡒኬᖕ࡝ẴῺ୕᪴ࢅ௫ᏽࡎࡉࡾࢅᚋ࡝ࡂ࡝ࡾ࠿ࠉࡵࡔࢀࢆࡐࡡࡻ࠹࡝ẴῺ୕᪴ࡢふῼࡈࡿ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࠊᮇ✇ා㢄࡚⣺௒ࡊࡒゞㄵఌ࡚➱⩽ࡼࡢࡆࡡ□┢࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ᵌ⏛Ắ࡞ၡ࠷ࡒࡓࡊࡒ࠿ࠉ᪺
☔࡝ᅂ➽ࢅᚋࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ࡚ࡀ࡝࠾ࡖࡒ㸝ἑᐋ࡛ỜᏬ 2006㸞ࠊ ࡱࡒ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡢࠉᙴࡡᅒ2.14㸝ᮇ✇࡚ࡢᅒ5㸞ࢅ⏕࠷࡙CO2⃨ᗐࡡን໩ࡢᾇ㟻ỀῺን໩࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᨥ㒼ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛㏑࡬ࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡡ୹ᘿࢅᨥᣚࡊࡒࠊ

20      
ᅒ5 CO2⃨ᗐን໩࡛ᾇ㟻ỀῺን໩                          ฝᡜ㸯㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡡᅒ 2.14

 ࡆࡡᅒ5࡚ࡢCO2 ⃨ᗐን໩ࡡ㛏᭿ലྡྷࡢ᝗ሒ࡛ࡊ࡙ྱࡱࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࠿ࠉ᫤㛣᚜ฦ࡛ྜྷ➴ࡡ᧧షࢅ᪃ࡌࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡽぜ࠾ࡄ୕㛏᭿ലྡྷࡡ༰㇗ࢅᘽࡂࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ௧ୖ࡞♟ࡌ࡛࠽ࡽࠉࡆࡡᅒࢅ୍ᐺ࡞ぜࡿࡣࠉCO2⃨ᗐን໩ࡡ㛏᭿ലྡྷࢅᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡን໩࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡢㄕ᪺࡚ࡀ࡝࠷ࡆ࡛࠿᪺ࡼ࠾࡚࠵
ࡾࠊ ࡱࡍࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡷ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡡ୹ᘿ࡞ࡻࡿࡣࠉỀῺ࠿఩ୖࡊࡒ 1ࠤ2 ᖳᚃ࡞ CO2 ⃨ᗐ࠿ୖ࠿ࡾࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ☔ヾࡊ࡙࠽ࡂࠊࡆࡆ࡚㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡡᅒ 5 ࡚ỀῺࡡࢡࣚࣆࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉỀῺ࠿୕᪴ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ᭿㛣࡛ୖ㜾ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ᭿㛣ࢅ୦᪁ྱࡳࡆ࡛࠿ฦ࠾ࡾࠊୌ᪁ CO2 ࡡᖳቌຊ⋙ࡡ
ࢡࣚࣆࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉㇿࡡೋ࡞ࡢỬࡊ࡙࡝ࡼ࡝࠷ࠊࡆࡿࡢࢡࣚࣆ࡞♟ࡈࡿࡒධ᭿㛣ࢅ㏳ࡋࠉCO2 ࠿ቌຊࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅណ࿝ࡌࡾࠊࡗࡱࡽࠉỀῺࡡ୕᪴࣬ୖ㜾࡞㛭౿࡝ࡂ CO2 ࠿ቌຊࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛࠷
࠹࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࢅᅒ 5 ࡢ⾪ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡆࡡ஥ᐁࡢᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡷ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡡ୹ᘿ࡛□┢ࡌࡾࠊ࡝࠽ࠉᅒ 4 ࡷᅒ 5 ࡞ぜࡼࡿࡾࡻ࠹࡝ࠉCO2 ⃨ᗐ࠿ẴῺ࣬ỀῺ࡞㐔ࡿ࡙ን໩ࡌࡾ㛭౿ࡢࠉ㛏᭿ᠺฦࢅཱིࡽ㝎࠷ࡒࡽࠉ᫤㛣᚜ฦ࡞ྜྷ➴࡝᧧షࢅࡊࡒࡽ࡝࡜ࠉరࡼ࠾ࡡฌ⌦ࢅ᪃ࡊ࡙ 2 ⩽ࡡ㛭౿ࢅᙁㄢࡊ࡝࠷㝀ࡽ᪺▉࡞ࡢぜ࠻࡙ࡆ࡝࠷ࠊ
࡝࠽ࠉ1990 ᖳ௥ࡡᖲᆍⓏ࡝ெⅥ㉫″ CO2 ᤴฝ㔖ࡢ 6.3GtC/yr ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡡᤴฝ㔖ࡡ࠹ࡔ༖ฦ
⛤ᗐ࠿ᾇὊࡷ᲻ᯐ࡝࡜࡞ྺ཭ࡈࡿࡒሔྙ࡞ᑊᚺࡌࡾኬẴ୯ CO2 ⃨ᗐቌຊ⋙ࢅゝ⟤ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉ1.5ppm/yr ࡮࡜࡞࡝ࡾࠊࡆࡿࡢᅒ 5 ࡞࠽ࡄࡾ 1990 ᖳ௥ࡡᖲᆍⓏ࡝ CO2 ⃨ᗐ୕᪴⋙࡛࡮࡯ୌ⮬ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡆࡡࡆ࡛ࡢࠉᅒ 5 ࡞ぜࡼࡿࡾࠔỀῺࡡ୕᪴࣬ୖ㜾࡞㛭౿࡝࠷ CO2 ⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࠕ࠿ெⅥ㉫″ CO2 ᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠉ࡛࠷࠹⩻࠻᪁ࢅᨥᣚࡌࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ
ୌ᪁ࠉᅒ6ࡢࠉᏒ⟿ንິࡡ㝎ཡ௧አ࡞ࡢ≁ื࡝ࢸ࣭ࢰฌ⌦ࢅ⾔ࢂࡍࠉᖳᖲᆍࡡCO2⃨ᗐ࣬ᾇ㟻ỀῺ㸝SST㸞ࡡ᫤㛣ን໩ࢅࡵࡖ࡛ࡵ༟⣟࡝ᙟ࡚Ẓ㍉ࡊ࡙ࡲࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

21       

ᅒ 6 ࣏ࢗࢻࣞ࢓࡞࠽࠷࡙ふῼࡈࡿࡒ CO2 ⃨ᗐ㸝ᐁ⥲ࠉKeeling and Whorf 2005㸞࡛ධ⌣ᖲᆍᾇ㟻ỀῺ㸝◒⥲ࠉRayner et al. 2003㸞ࡡ᫤㛣ን໩                Ἰ:୦⩽࡛ࡵ 12 ࣧ᭮⛛ິᖲᆍࢅ⏕࠷࡙Ꮢ⟿ንິࢅཱིࡽ㝎࠷࡙࠵ࡾࡆࡡᅒ 6 ࠾ࡼࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡷ㎾⸠㸝2006㸞ࡡ୹ᘿ࡛␏࡝ࡽࠉᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡ୕᪴࣬ୖ㜾࡞㛭ࢂࡼࡍ CO2 ⃨ᗐࡢୌ㈇ࡊ࡙ቌຊࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛࠿ฦ࠾ࡾࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉࡆࡡᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡን໩࡞↋㛭౿
࡝ CO2 ቌຊ࠿ࠉெⅥ㉫″ CO2 ࡡᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾࡵࡡ࡝ࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ࡝࠽ࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝ㄕ᪺ࢅࡌࡾ࡛ࠉࠔᅒ 6 ࡢெⅥ㉫″ CO 2 ࡞ࡻࡾῺᬦ໩ㄕ࡛ࡵ□┢ࡌࡾࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝
࠷࠾ࠊࡆࡡᅒ࡚ࡢ CO2 ⃨ᗐ࠿୕࠿ࡖ࡙࠷࡝࠿ࡼࠉᾇ㟻ỀῺ࠿ୖ࠿ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ᫤᭿࠿ࡒࡂࡈࢆ࠵
ࡾࠊࠕ࡛࠷࠹㈻ၡࢅུࡄࡾࡆ࡛࠿࠵ࡾࠊࡆ࠹ࡊࡒ␪ၡ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࡢࠉḗࡡࡻ࠹࡞➽࠻ࡾࡆ࡛࠿࡚
ࡀࡾࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉẴುࢅỬࡴࡾさᅄࡡ୯࡞ࡢࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡡࡻ࠹࡞࿔᭿Ⓩ࡞ẴῺ࣬ᾇ㟻ỀῺࢅ୕ࡅୖࡅࡌࡾࡵࡡࡷࠉኬぞᶅ࡝ℾᒜᄂℾࡡࡻ࠹࡞ୌ᫤Ⓩ࡞ẴῺ࣬ᾇ㟻ỀῺࢅୖࡅࡾࡵࡡ࠿ྱ
ࡱࡿࡾࠊࡗࡱࡽࠉふῼࡈࡿࡾẴῺ࣬ᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡ᫤㛣ን໩ࡢࠉCO2 ⃨ᗐࡡ୕᪴࡞ᑊᚺࡊ࡙ࡹࡖࡂ
ࡽ୕᪴ࡌࡾᠺฦ࡛ࠉ୕オࡡࡻ࠹࡝⮤↓ንິ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙୕ୖິࢅ⧖ࡽ㏁ࡌᠺฦ࡛࠿ྱࡱࡿࡾࠊ๑⩽࡞ࡻࡾ୕᪴ࡡ㏷ࡈࡢᚃ⩽࡞ࡻࡾ୕ୖິࡡ㏷ࡈࡻࡽ㐔࠷ࡒࡴࠉୌ᫤Ⓩ࡞ẴῺ࠿ୖ࠿ࡾ᫤᭿࠿ኣᩐ
ぜࡼࡿࡾࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊᅒ 6 ࡡᾇ㟻ỀῺࡡ᫤㛣ን໩࡞࠽࠷࡙ࠉ▯࠷࿔᭿࡚ንິࡌࡾᠺฦࢅࡡࡑ࠷࡙
㛏᭿Ⓩലྡྷࢅぜࡿࡣࠉ1970 ᖳ௥௧㜾୕᪴ലྡྷ࡞࠵ࡾࡆ࡛࠿ࢂ࠾ࡾࠊࡆࡡ୕᪴ലྡྷࡢࠉெⅥ㉫″
ࡡῺᐄຝᯕẴమᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾྊ⬗ᛮ࠿㟸ᖏ࡞㧏࠷࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝㆗ㄵ 6 ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵࡵཤ↯ࡡࡆ࡛㸞ࠊ
ࡱࡒࠉ㎾ᖳࡡCO2ቌຊ࠿ெⅥ㉫″ᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅࡻࡽ❻Ⓩ࡞♟ࡌࢸ࣭ࢰ࡛ࡊ࡙
ᅒ7ࢅ᥎ࡅࡾࠊ

22ᅒ 7࣍ࢪࢹ࣭ࢠࡡ࢓࢕ࢪࢤ࢓࠾ࡼᚋࡼࡿࡒ CO2 ⃨ᗐ㸝Petit et al. 1999㸞࡛ࠉ᭩㎾ࡡ CO 2 ⃨ᗐ├᥃ふῼࢸ࣭ࢰ㸝Keeling and Whorf 2005㸞ࢅࡗ࡝ࡅ࡙♟ࡊࡒ᫤⣌าࢡࣚࣆ                   ฝᡜ㸯Steffen et al.㸝2003㸞 ࡞ࡻࡾᅒࢅᨭን

ࡆࡿࡢểᗃࢤ࢓࠾ࡼ࡛ࡼࡿࡒ㐛ཡ40୒ᖳࡡCO2 ⃨ᗐࡡን໩࡛ࠉ࣏ࢗࢻࣞ࢓࡝࡜࡚ῼᏽࡈࡿࡒ
20ୠ⣎ᚃ༖௧㜾ࡡCO2⃨ᗐࡡን໩࡛ࢅࡗ࡝ࡅ࡙♟ࡊࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡡᅒ7࠾ࡼࠉ㎾ᖳࡢ㐛ཡ40୒ᖳ࡞࡝࠷ເ࠷࡚CO2⃨ᗐ࠿୕᪴ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛࠿ฦ࠾ࡾࠊࡆࡡCO2⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࢅ⎌ሾንິࡡ⤎ᯕ࡛ࡊ࡙ㄕ᪺ࡊࡻ࠹࡛ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉể᭿-㛣ể᭿ࢦ࢕ࢠࣜ࡞༆ᩓࡌࡾ⎌ሾን໩࠿⏐ᴏ㠁࿤௧ᚃ࡞㉫ࡆࡖ࡙࠷࡝ࡄࡿࡣ࡝ࡼ࡝࠷ࠊ㎾ᖳῺᬦ໩ࡡ඗ು࠿᳠ฝࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛ࡢゕ࠻ࠉࡐࡿ࡮࡜ࡱ࡚࡞ኬࡀ࡝ን໩ࡢふῼࡈࡿ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࠊ⏐ᴏ㠁࿤௧ᚃࡡCO2 ⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࡢࠉெ㛣Ὡິࡡ⤎ᯕ࡛⩻࠻ࡾࡡ࠿ጂᙔ
࡚࠵ࡾࠊ㛏᭿ንິᠺฦࢅཱིࡽ㝎ࡂ࡛ᅒ4ࡡࡻ࠹࡝CO2⃨ᗐ࡛ẴῺࡡࣚࢡ௛ࡀ┞㛭࠿ぜࡼࡿࡾཋᅄ࡞ࡗ
࠷࡙ࡵᴣ␆ࢅㄕ᪺ࡊ࡙࠽ࡂࠊࡱࡍࠉẴῺንິࡡᨥ㒼Ⓩさᅄ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡢ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼ࡚ࣘ࠵
ࡾࠊ⌟ᅹࡡ▩ぜ࡚ࡢࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘⓆ⏍࡚ẴῺ࠿୕࠿ࡖࡒ࡛ࡀ࡞CO2⃨ᗐ࠿ቌຊࡌࡾ௘⤄ࡲ࡛
ࡊ࡙ࠉ1㸞㧏Ὼ໩࠿ࡵࡒࡼࡌᖱ㨟࡞ࡻࡾ㝛ᇡ⏍ឺ⣌ࡡ⏍⏐ງ఩ୖࠉ2㸞᪴Ὼ࡞ࡻࡾᅰቫ᭯ᶭ∸ࡡฦよಀ㐅ࠉ3㸞ஜ⇩࡞ࡻࡾ᲻ᯐℾⅇࡡቌຊࠉ࡝࡜࠿⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ࡝࠽ᾇὊ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢࠉ࢙
ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘⓆ⏍ᖳ࡞ࡢCO2 ᨲฝ࠿఩΅ࡌࡾࡆ࡛࠿ᐁ㝷ࡡふῼ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙᪺ࡼ࠾࡞࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝㆗ㄵ4ཤ↯㸞ࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾᾇ㟻Ὼᗐ୕᪴ࡢ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉࠔ㸝ெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗
໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾㄵ⩽ࡡኣࡂ࠿ッᣈࢅ♟ࡈࡍ࡞୹ᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡝㸞ᾇ㟻Ὼᗐ୕᪴࡞
ࡻࡖ࡙ᾇ㟻࠾ࡼࡡCO2࠿ᨲฝࡈࡿࠉࡐࡿ࠿ኬẴ୯ࡡCO2 ⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࡡ୹࡝さᅄ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠕ࡛
࠷࠹⩻࠻ࡢㄏࡽ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ἑᐋ 2005㸞ࠊ ᭩ᚃ࡞ࠉࠔῺᗐ࠿ཋᅄ࡚⃨ᗐ࠿⤎ᯕࠕ࡛࠷࠹❟ㄵࡡッᣈ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡆࡡࢡࣚࣆ㸝ᅒ4㸞ࢅཱིࡽ୕ࡅ
࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡢࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾୠ⏲ࡡࠔெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࠕྫྷᏽㄵ⩽ࡡ୯࡚ࡢ᪝ᮇࡡㄵ⩽ࡡࡲ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉ1㸞᰷ᮇ㸝1994㸞ࡷࠉࡐࡡࢡࣚࣆࡡよ㔐ࢅᗀࡴࡒྫྷᏽㄵ⩽ࡡᙫ㡢ງ࠿᪝ᮇ࡚ࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞ኬࡀ࠾ࡖࡒࠉ2㸞᪝ᮇࡡࠔெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࠕྫྷᏽㄵ⩽ࡡኣࡂࡢࠉᾇአ࡚ࡡ᭩᩺ࡡ㆗ㄵࢅࣆ࢚࣭ࣞࡊ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࠉ࡝࡜࠿ࢂ࠾ࡾࠊ

23

ッᣈ 2. ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ኬẴ୯⃨ᗐࡡ୕᪴࠿ཋᅄ࡚ࠉ⤎ᯕ࡛ࡊ࡙ẴῺ୕᪴࠿㉫ࡆࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡵࡡ࡛௫
ᏽࡌࡾ࡛ࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡷ࣒ࢰࣤࡡኬẴ୯⃨ᗐࢅ࿔᭿Ⓩ࡞ንິࡈࡎࡾᆀ⌣ࢨࢪࢷ࣑ࡡ࢕࣊ࣤࢹࢅ
♟ࡌࡆ࡛࠿ᚪさ㸝㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳๑㏑ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ㐛ཡࡡẴುንິ࡚஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡷ࣒ࢰࣤࢅቌຊࡈࡎ࡙࠷ࡒࢹ࣭ࣛ࢝ࡢࠉẴῺ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࡵࡻࡂࠉࡆࡿࡵྱࡴ࡙ࠉ⌟ᅹࡡ⛁Ꮥࡢ௧ୖࡡ 3 ࡗࢅྜྷ᫤࡞ヾࡴ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ
1㸞ẴῺ࠿ཋᅄ࡚஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿ንࢂࡾ
2㸞஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿ཋᅄ࡚ẴῺ࠿ንࢂࡾ
3㸞㎾ᖳࡡ 100 ᖳࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡡẴῺ୕᪴ࡢࠉ2㸞࠿ኬࡀ࡝ཋᅄ࡚࠵ࡾ ࡱࡍࠉᙁㄢࡊࡒ࠷ࡡࡢࠉ1㸞ࡢ 2㸞
ࠉ3㸞࡛୦❟ࡌࡾࡡ࡚ࠉ1㸞ࢅヾࡴࡒࡼ᭩ᚃࠉ2㸞ࡵ 3㸞ࡵ୹ᘿࡊ࡙ࡢ࠷ࡄ࡝࠷࡛࠷࠹㆗ㄵࡢᠺࡽ❟ࡒ࡝࠷ࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡾࠊெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕ࠿୹
ᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡࡢࠉ࠵ࡂࡱ࡚ࡵ 20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖ࡡῺᗐ୕᪴࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿୹࡝ཋᅄ࡚࠵ࡾ
࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡐࡿ௧አࡡ㐛ཡ࡞࠽ࡄࡾῺᗐ୕᪴࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉẴῺ࠿ཋᅄ࡚஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿ን໩ࡊࡒሔྙ࠿ᩐኣࡂᏋᅹࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ᭩ิ࠾ࡼヾࡴ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ≁࡞ࠉể᭿㸢㛣ể᭿ࢦ࢕ࢠࣜ
࡞࡛ࡵ࡝࠹஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡንິ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢࠉ࣐ࣚࣤࢤࣄࢴࢲ⌦ㄵ࡞ᚉࡖࡒᆀ⌣㌮㐠さ⣪ࡡን໩࠿ᾇὊ⎌ሾࡡరࡼ࠾ࡡን໩ࢅᘤࡀ㉫ࡆࡊࠉᾇὊࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ྺ཭ቌኬ࡞ࡗ࡝࠿ࡖࡒ࡛ࡌࡾ⩻࠻᪁࠿୹Ὦ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝㔕ᓧ 1994㸰Sigman and Boyle 2000㸞ࠊ ኣࡂࡡ࠷ࢂࡹࡾࠔ᠔␪ㄵ⩽ࠕࡡ᪁ࠍࡡ㛣࡞ࡢࠉࠔ㐛ཡ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡵ⌟ᅹ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡵ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡࡲ࠿Ὼᬦ໩ࡡཋᅄࡓ࡛ெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࡢ୹ᘿࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹ㄏࡖࡒヾㆉ࠿࠵ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉࡱࡈ࡞ࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝ᢀึࡆࡐ࠿ࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࢅ
ࠔ᠔␪ㄵ⩽ࠕ࠿༎ฦ࡞⌦よ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ◂✪ࡊ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࡆ࡛ࡡッᕞ࡛ゕ࠻ࡾࠊッᣈ 3.㸝ெⅥⓏ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᤴฝ࠿⤽⤾ࡊ࡙࠷ࡒ࡞ࡵᣂࡼࡍ㸞92 ᖳ࡛ 93 ᖳ࡚ࡢ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡢቌຊࡊ࡝࠾ࡖࡒ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005㸰㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳➠ୌ࡞ࠉኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐን໩ࡢࠉெⅥ㉫″ࡡᤴฝ࡛⮤↓ࡡ㸝ᾇὊ࠽ࡻࡦ㝛୕⏍ឺ⣌ࡡ㸞ᤴฝ࠽ࡻࡦྺ཭ࡡ࿰࡚Ửࡱࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉ⮤↓ࡡᤴฝ࣬ྺ཭ࡢℾᒜᄂℾࡷ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡡࡻ
࠹࡝⮤↓ንິ࡞ࡻࡽንິࡊࠉḿ࿝࡚ኬࡀ࡝ྺ཭࡞࡝ࡾࡆ࡛ࡵ࠵ࡾࠊெⅥⓏ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᤴฝ࠿࠵ࡿࡣᚪࡍኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿୕࠿ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࡡ◂✪⩽ࡢ୹ᘿࡊ࡙࠽ࡼࡍࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡንິࡢࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡻ࠹࡝ࡵ
ࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ ➠஦࡞ࠉࡵ࡛ࡵ࡛Ꮢ⟿ንິ࠿ࡻࡽᑚࡈ࠷㸝Ҹ⮤↓ࡡᤴฝ࣬ྺ཭ࡡᙫ㡢࠿⌟ࡿ࡞ࡂ࠷㸞
SIO㸝Scripps
Institution of Oceanography㸞࡞ࡻࡾ༞༖⌣ࡡふῼᆀⅤ࡚ࡡᖳᖲᆍ
㸝http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-keel.htm㸞ࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉࡆࡡ᭿㛣ࡵ୕᪴ࡊ⤾ࡄ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ

24➠୔࡞ࠉඔࢸ࣭ࢰࠉࡌ࡝ࢂࡔᵌ⏛ 㸝2006㸞 ࡡᅒ⾪ 2㸢4 ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ㎾⸠ 㸝2006㸞 ࡡᅒ 2.11 ࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉ᭮ื࡚ࡢ᭩㧏᭮ࡡ⃨ᗐࡢ 92 ᖳࡵ 93 ᖳࡵ୕᪴ലྡྷ࡞ࡢ࠵ࡽࠉධమࡡ୕᪴ലྡྷ࡞ࡐࡿ࡮
࡜㐋⬲ࡊ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࡻ࠹࡞ࡵぜ࠻ࡾࠊ➠ᄿ࡞ࠉࡐࡵࡐࡵࠉ2 ᖳ㛣ࡡ␏ᖏ࠿࠵ࡾ࠾ࡼࠉ⏐ᴏ㠁࿤௧㜾ࡡ⣑ 150 ᖳ㛣࡚ࡍࡖ࡛ᠺ❟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛᝷ᏽ࡚ࡀࡾࡵࡡࢅᏰධྫྷᏽࡌࡾࠉ࡛࠷࠹ㄵἪ⮤మ࠿࠽࠾ࡊ࠷ࠊ

ッᣈ 4. 2003 ᖳ࡚ࡢኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿ 3 ppm ࡵቌຊࡊࡒ㸝ࡐࡿࡱ࡚ࡢẎᖳ 1.5ࠤ1.8ppm㸞
ࠊ
3ppm ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉெ㛣࠿ᤴฝࡊࡒ㔖࡛ྜྷࡋ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2004㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡱࡍࠉ3 ppm ࡛࠷࠹ᩐᏊࡡ⏜ᮮ࠿୘᪺࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉ๑ฝࡡ㆗ㄵ 11 ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵࡡ୯࡚ࡵ㏑࡬ࡒࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ኬẴ୯⃨ᗐࡢࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝ௧አࡡさ⣪ࡵᙫ㡢ࡌࡾࡒࡴኬࡀ࡝ᖕ࠿࠵ࡽ
ᆀᇡ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡵ␏࡝ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉ3 ppm ࡛࠷࠹ᩐᏊࡵ࠵ࡽᚋ࡝࠷ᩐᏊ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊᐁ㝷࡞ࠉ
IPCC ➠୔ḗሒ࿈᭡࡚ࡵࠉ
ࠔ1990 ᖳ௥ࡡᖳࠍࡡቌຊ㔖ࡢࠉ0.9 ppm㸝0.2㸚㸞࠾ࡼ 2.8 ppm㸝0.8㸚㸞ࡱ࡚ࠕ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠽ࡽࠉንິᖕࡢኬࡀ࠷ࠊ

ッᣈ 5. ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡡ 1 ᖳᚃ࡞஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿୕᪴ࡌࡾࠊ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾᾇ㟻ỀῺ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ኬẴ୯࡞஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿ᾇὊ࠾ࡼᨲฝࡈࡿࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡆࡿࡵெⅥⓏᤴฝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ὼᬦ໩ㄕ࡛□┢ࡊ࡝࠷ࠊ๑ฝࡡ㆗ㄵ 11 ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵ࡚ࡵ㏑࡬ࡒࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ☔࠾࡞ࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿ቌ࠻ࡾ࡛࠷࠹ᙟࡡᅄᯕ㛭౿ࡢ⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡐࡿࡢῺᬦ໩ࡷᖱࡣࡗ࡞ࡻࡾ᲻ᯐℾⅇ᫤ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᤴฝ࠿ኬࡀࡂᙫ㡢ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᐁ㝷࡞ࠉ᭩㎾࡚ࡢ 97㹳98 ᖳࡡ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉኣࡂࡡᅗ࡚ᩐ
Ⓤ୒ ha ࡵࡡ᲻ᯐℾⅇ࠿࠵ࡖࡒࠊ83 ᖳࡡ࢕ࣤࢺࢾࢨ࢓࡚ࡡ᲻ᯐℾⅇࡵࡱࡒࠉࡐࡡ༖ᖳ௧୕๑ࡡ
࣓ࣤࢪ࣭ࣤ᭿ࡡᖱࡣࡗ㸝ᐁ㝷࡞࠵ࡖࡒ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ㸞ࡡᙫ㡢ࢅུࡄ࡙஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࢅᤴฝࡊ࡙࠷
ࡒࠊ࡝࠽ࠉḗࡡᅒ 8 ࡛ᅒ 9 ࡚♟ࡊࡒࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾᾇ㟻ỀῺ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᾇὊ࠾
ࡼ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿ᨲฝࡈࡿࡾ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉᐁ㝷ࡡふῼ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ྫྷᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉᐁ㝷ࡢࠉ㏣࡞࢙
ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᾇ㟻࠾ࡼࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᨲฝ㔖ࡢ΅ᑛࡌࡾ࡛࠷࠹ን໩࠿㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Feely etal. 1999㸞ࠊࡆࡿࡢࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ఔࡖ࡙ኯᖲὊ㉝㐠ᇡ࡞ᗀ࠿ࡾ㧏ῺࡡᾇỀ࡞ࡢࠉ⏍∸Ὡິࡡᙫ㡢࡞ࡻࡽࡵ࡛ࡵ࡛ CO2 ࠿࠵ࡱࡽྱࡱࡿ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࡒࡴ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

25   ᅒ 8 ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼ࡛ࣘᾇ㟻࠾ࡼࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᨲฝ࡛ࡡ㛭౿                              ฝᡜ㸯Feely et al.㸝1999㸞

26               ᅒ 9 ᾇ㟻ỀῺ࡛஦㓗໩⅛⣪ฦᅸ࡛ࡡ┞㛭㛭౿                            ฝᡜ㸯Feely et al.㸝1999㸞㸱ᅒ 8 ࡛ ᅒ 9 ࡡ よ ㄕ㸳
 ᅒ 8 ࡡྎา࠿ᾇὊ࠾ࡼࡡ CO2 ᨲฝࢅ♟ࡌࠊ୕ࡡ᪁ 92㸡93 ᖳ࠿࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘⓆ⏍ᖳࠉୖࡡ᪁ࡡ 96 ᖳࡢ㟸࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘⓆ⏍ᖳ࡞࠵ࡒࡽࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘⓆ⏍ᖳࡡ᪁࠿ࠉCO2 ᨲฝ࠿ᑚࡈࡂ࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛࠿ࢂ࠾ࡾࠊ
ᅒ 9 ࡚ࡢࠉᾇ㟻ỀῺ㸝SST㸞࠿୕࠿ࡾ࡛ CO2 ฦᅸ㸝pCO2㸞࠿ୖ࠿ࡾ㸝ᾇࡢ CO2 ࢅྺ཭ࡊࡷࡌࡂ࡝ࡾ = ᾇ㟻࠾ࡼࡡ CO2 ᨲฝ㔖࠿ᑚࡈࡂ࡝ࡾ㸞࡛࠷࠹ࡀࡿ࠷࡝┞㛭࠿♟ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ

 ࡝࠽ᅒ 8㸡9 ࡚♟ࡊࡒࢸ࣭ࢰ࡞ᑊࡊࠉࠔ92 ᖳࡢࣅࢻࢵ࣍ℾᒜᄂℾࡡ├ᚃ࡞࠵ࡒࡾࡡ࡚ࠉࡆࡡࡻ
࠹࡝≁Ṟ࡝᫤᭿ࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࡢ࠵࡙࡞࡝ࡼ࡝࠷ࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷࠾ࠕ࡛࠷࠹␪ၡࡵ࠵ࡾ࡚࠵ࢀ࠹ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ
ࡆ࠹ࡊࡒ᫤᭿ࡓ࠾ࡼ࡛࠷ࡖ࡙࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡐࡡࡵࡡ࠿≁␏࡝ᣲ⯑࠷ࢅぜࡎ࡙࠷ࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ࡝
ࡂࠉኯᖲὊ㉝㐠ᇡ࡞࠽ࡄࡾỀῺࡡ୕᪴ࡢ௙ࡡ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼ࡛ࣘྜྷᵕ࡞㉫ࡆࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊℾᒜᄂℾ࠿ኬẴᾇὊ㛣ࡡ CO2 ஹᥦ࡞ᙫ㡢ࢅ୙࠻ࡾࡻ࠹࡝රమⓏ࡝ࣈࣞࢬࢪ࠿ᥞ᱄ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ࡝
ࡂࠉࡱࡒࠉỀῺ୕᪴࡞ఔ࠹ CO2 ᨲฝ΅ᑛࡡ⌦⏜ࡵ୕オࡡࡻ࠹࡞ྙ⌦Ⓩ࡞ㄕ᪺࡚ࡀࡾࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉ
ࡆࡆ࡚♟ࡈࡿࡒ 92 ᖳࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࡢඖฦ௥⾪ᛮ࠿࠵ࡾ࡛ᛦࡖ࡙ࡻ࠷ࠊᐁ㝷ࠉᅒ 9 ࢅࡲࡾ࡛ࠉ92 ᖳ௧አࡡࢸ࣭ࢰࠉ93-96 ᖳ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡵࠉỀῺ࡛ CO2 ฦᅸࡡ㏣┞㛭ࡢࡢࡖࡀࡽ࡛ぜཱི࡙ࡿࡾࠊࡵࡔ
ࢀࢆࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘࡡࡻ࠹࡝ฝᮮ஥࡞ࡻࡾࣆ࢔࣭ࢺࣁࢴࢠࡢ࠷ࡗࡵྜྷࡋࡻ࠹࡞㸝ྜྷࡋኬࡀࡈ࡚㸞ᠺ❟ࡌࡾ࡛ࡢ࠾ࡁࡼ࡝࠷ࠊ

㆗ㄵ 12. ኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡛ᾇὊ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡢᖲᆍᾇ㟻Ὼᗐ࡚‵⇍ᖲ⾦≟ឺ࡞࠵ࡽࠉெⅥⓏ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿㛏᭿㛣ኬẴ୯࡞⏻ࡱࡾ࡛ࡢ⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡝࠷㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡱࡍࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡢỀ࡛ཬᚺࡊ࡙⅛㓗࢕࢛ࣤ➴ࡡᙟ࡚ᾇỀ࡞⁈ࡄࠉࡱࡒࠉᾇὊࣈࣚࣤࢠࢹࣤ
ࡡὩິ࡞ࡻࡽࠉᾇὊ⾪ᒒࡡ⅛⣪ࡢ᭯ᶭ∸࡞ንᥦࡈࡿ࡙୯ᒒ࣬῕ᒒ࡫ỷ㜾ࡌࡾࡒࡴࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡᾇỀ࡫ࡡ⁈よ㔖ࡢࣉ࣭ࣤࣛࡡἪ์㸝⁈よᗐࡡᑚࡈ࠷Ẵమ࡚ࡢࠉῺᗐ࠿ୌᏽ࡝ࡼࡣࠉୌᏽ㔖ࡡ

27

⁈፳࡞࡛ࡄࡾẴమࡡ㈻㔖ࡢࠉࡐࡡẴమࡡฦᅸ࡞Ẓౚ㸞ࡓࡄ࠾ࡼࡢỬࡱࡼ࡝࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉ⾪ᒒỀࡢ
1000 ᖳࡡ࢛࣭ࢱ࣭࡚ᚘ⎌ࡊ࡙῕ᒒỀ࡛ථࡿ᭨ࢂࡾࡒࡴࠉ῕ᒒࢅྱࡳᾇὊධమࡡ⅛⣪㔖࠿ኬẴ୯ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࡛ᖲ⾦ࡌࡾ࡞ࡢ 1000 ᖳ࢛࣭ࢱ࣭ࡡ᫤㛣࠿࠾࠾ࡾࠊ௧୕࠾ࡼࠉኬẴ࡛ᾇὊ࡛ࡡ▯᫤㛣ࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡡᖲ⾦≟ឺࢅᇱⅤ࡛ࡊࡒ㆗ㄵࡢㄏࡽ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉெⅥⓏ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᤴฝࢅ୹ᅄ࡛ࡊ࡙᛬㏷࡞ቌຊࡊࡒኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࠉᾇὊධమ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡢධࡂᖲ⾦࡞㐡ࡊ࡙࠽ࡼࡍࠉኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࢅࡊࡣࡼࡂࡢྺ཭ࡊ⤾ࡄࡾ㐛ῳ≟ឺ࡞࠵ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡾࡡ࠿ྙ⌦Ⓩ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࡝࠽ࠉኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡỬᏽ࡞ࡢࠉᾇὊࡡࡲ࡚࡝ࡂࠉ㝛ᇡ⏍ឺ⣌࡛ኬẴ࡛ࡡ
⅛⣪ஹᥦࡡᙲ๪ࡵ㔔さ࡚࠵ࡾ࠿ࠉࡆࡔࡼࡵῺᗐࡡࡲ࡞ࡻࡾ▯᫤㛣ࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡡᖲ⾦≟ឺ࡚ࡢ㆗ㄵ࡚ࡀ࡝࠷ࠊ㆗ㄵ 13. ᾇ㟻ỀῺ୕࡚᪴ࠉᾇὊ࠾ࡼ CO2 ࠿ኬ㔖࡞ᨲฝࡈࡿࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣ 1ΥࡡᾇỀῺ୕࡚᪴ CO2
ࡡ⁈よᗐࡢ 4%΅ᑛࡌࡾࠊᾇὊ⾪ᒒ࡞ྱࡱࡿࡾ↋ᶭ⅛⣪ࡢ 1,020Gt ࡮࡜࡚࠵ࡾࡡ࡚ࠉ1ΥࡡᾇỀῺ୕࡚᪴ 40Gt㸝⅛⣪㔖ᥦ⟤㸞ࡡ CO2 ࠿ኬẴ୯࡞ᨲฝࡈࡿࡾࡆ࡛࡞࡝ࡾ㸝㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳
 ⅛㓗⣌࡞࠽ࡄࡾࠔ࣭ࣜ࣊ࣜຝᯕࠕ࡛࿣ࡣࡿࡾ⌟㇗ࡡࡒࡴࠉ1ΥࡡῺᗐ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡾ⅛⣪ᨲฝࡢ40 Gt ࡻࡽᑚࡈࡂࠉ4 Gt ࡮࡜࡚࠵ࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠊࡆࡿࡢኬẴ୯⃨ᗐ࡞ᥦ⟤ࡊ࡙ 2ppm ࡮࡜࡚࠵ࡽࠉ࣏ࢗࢻࣞ࢓࡞࠽ࡄࡾ CO2 ⃨ᗐ├᥃ふῼ࠿ጙࡱࡖࡒ 1958 ᖳ࠾ࡼ࠾ࡼ⌟ᅹࡱ࡚ࡡ CO2 ⃨ᗐቌຊ㔖 50ppm ࡞Ẓ࡬ࢂࡍ࠾࡝㔖࡚ࡊ࠾࡝࠷ࠊධ⌣ᖲᆍ࡚ 1Υ⛤ᗐࡡᾇỀῺ୕࡚᪴ࡢࠉኬẴ୯ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴ࢅᏽ㔖Ⓩ࡞ㄕ᪺࡚ࡀ࡝࠷ࠊ
࡝࠽ࠉ࣭ࣜ࣊ࣜຝᯕ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢ㔕ᓧ㸝1994㸞࠿よㄕࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࠿ࠉࡆࡆ࡚ᴣ␆ࢅㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࠊ
ᾇὊ୯࡚↋ᶭ⅛⣪ࡢࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪㸝CO2 㸞ࠉ⅛㓗࢕࢛ࣤ㸝CO32-㸞ࠉ㔔⅛㓗࢕࢛ࣤ㸝HCO3-㸞ࡡ 3ࡗࡡᙟឺࢅ୹࡞࡛ࡽ࡝࠿ࡼ⁈よࡊᖲ⾦࡞㐡ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ
ࠔCO2 ࡡ⁈よᗐ࠿ 4%΅ࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡢ
࠵ࡂࡱ࡚ CO2 ᙟឺࡡ⁈よᗐ࠿ 4%΅ᑛࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࢅណ࿝ࡊࠉ3 ᙟឺࢅ࠵ࢂࡎࡒࠔධ⅛㓗ࠕ⃨ᗐࡡ΅ᑛ㔖࡛ࡢ␏࡝ࡾࠊCO2 ࡡ⁈よᗐ࠿ 4%΅ᑛࡊࡒ࡛ࡀࠉධ⅛㓗⃨ᗐࡡ΅ᑛ㔖ࡢࡐࡡ 1/10 ⛤ᗐࡡ⣑ 0.4㸚࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡆࡡࡆ࡛ࢅ࣭ࣜ࣊ࣜຝᯕ࡛࿣ࡩࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉ୕ࡡ 1,020Gt ࡛࠷࠹ᩐᏊࡢࠉCO2 ᙟឺࡡ↋ᶭ⅛⣪㔖࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂධ⅛㓗㔖࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛࡞Ἰណࡊ࡙ḟࡊ࠷ࠊ ࣭ࣜ࣊ࣜຝᯕ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࠉࡈࡼ࡞ౚࢅᣪࡅ࡙ㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࠊSabine et al.㸝2004㸞ࡢࠉᾇὊ࠿ྺ཭ࡊ
ࡒெⅥ㉫″ CO2 ࡡฦᕱࢅ᥆ᏽࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡐࡿ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉᾇὊ⾪ᒒ࡞࠽ࡄࡾெⅥ㉫″ CO2 ࡡ඼ᆵⓏ⃨ᗐࡢࠉධ⅛㓗࡚ 50 mmol/m3 ࡮࡜࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡿ࡞ᑊࡊࠉ⮤↓⏲࡞ࡵ࡛࠾ࡼᏋᅹࡌࡾධ⅛㓗ࡢᾇὊ⾪ᒒ࡚ 2000 mmol/m3 ࡮࡜࡚࠵ࡽࠉெ㛣Ὡິ࡞ࡻࡾቌຊࡢ 2.5 %࡮࡜࡞㐛ࡁ࡝࠷ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊᾇ
Ὂ⾪ᒒࡡ CO2 ฦᅸࡢኬẴ୯ࡡࡵࡡ࡛ྜྷᵕࠉ⏐ᴏ㠁࿤௧๑࠾ࡼ 30 %㎾ࡂࡵቌ࠻࡙࠷ࡾ㸝Takahashi
et al. 2002㸞ࠊᾇὊ୯ࡡ CO2 ฦᅸࡢ CO2 ᙟឺࡡ↋ᶭ⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࡞㸝ୌᏽῺᗐ࡚ࡢ㸞Ẓౚࡌࡾࡡ࡚ࠉ
࣭ࣜ࣊ࣜຝᯕ࡞ࡻࡽࠉධ⅛㓗⃨ᗐࡻࡽࡵቌຊࡡ๪ྙ࠿ 1 ᰾㧏࠷ࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

28

㆗ㄵ 14. ⅛໩Ề⣪⇖ᩩࡡ⇖↕࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ኬẴ࡞௛ຊࡈࡿࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾ⅛⣪ࡡ౩⤝㔖ࡢ 6 Gt⛤ᗐ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉᖳ㛣࡞ኬẴ࡛⏍ឺ⣌࣬ᾇὊ⾪ᒒỀ࡛ஹᥦࡈࡿࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾ⅛⣪㔖 200 Gt
ࡡࢂࡍ࠾ 3%࡞㐛ࡁ࡝࠷㸝㎾⸠ 2006㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳ࡆࡿࡵ㟸ᖏ࡞࣐ࢪ࣭ࣛࢸ࢔ࣤࢡ࡝㆗ㄵ࡚࠵ࡾࠊኬẴࠉ㝛ࠉᾇࡡ㛣ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡࡷࡽ࡛ࡽ㸝⮤↓ࡡ⅛⣪ᚘ⎌㸞ࡢࠉౚ࠻࡙ゕ࠻ࡣࠉᖳᗐᮆࡡṟ㧏㸝ኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ㸞ࡡን໩ࡢኬࡀࡂ࡝
࠷ࡵࡡࡡࠉᖳᗐ㏭୯࡚ࡡฝࡊථࡿ࠿⃥ࡊ࠷㈋㔘ཾᗑࡡ㡰ථ࣬ᘤฝࡡࡻ࠹࡝ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ࡓ࠾ࡼᚘ⎌࡛࠷࠹ྞ๑࠿ࡗ࠷࡙࠷ࡾ㸞ࠊୌ᪁ࠉெⅥⓏ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᤴฝࡢࠉࢂࡍ࠾ࡍࡗ࡚࠵ࡾ࠿ᖳᗐᮆ
ṟ㧏ࢅቌຊࡈࡎࡾ✒❟㈋㔘࡞࡝ࡑࡼ࠻ࡾࡆ࡛࠿ฝᮮࡾ㸝⏐ᴏ㠁࿤௧㜾⌟ᅹࡱ࡚ࡡ⣴ゝ࡚⣑ 350
Gt㸞ࠊࡆࡡ⣴ゝ࡚⣑ 350 Gt ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉ⏐ᴏ㠁࿤௧๑ࡡኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪Ꮛᅹ㔖ࡡ⣑ 7 ๪࡚࠵ࡽࠉ⮤↓⏲ࡡ⅛⣪ᚘ⎌㐛⛤࡚ࡡንິ࡚ࡢྺ཭୘⬗࡝㔖࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࡝࠽ࠉࡆࡿ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢྡྷ஬㸝2007㸞ࢅཤ↯ࡈࡿࡒ࠷ࠊ

㆗ㄵ 15. ࠔெⅥⓏ࡞ᤴฝࡈࡿࡒ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡ ࠹ࡔ ࠉኬẴ୯࡞࡛࡜ࡱࡾࡡ࠿ 46%ࠉᾇὊྺ཭
࠿ 28%ࠉ᲻ᯐྺ཭ 25%ࠕ࡛࠷࠹᥆ᏽࡢ࠷࠷ຊ΅ࠊࠔ᲻ᯐ࡝࡜࡞ࡻࡾྺ཭ࡡቌຊࠕࡢࠉ᲻ᯐఅ᤿
ࡷ↕ࡀ⏷࡝࡜ࡡ⌟≟࡞ཬࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸰ᵌ⏛ 2006㸞
ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ๑ฝࡡ㆗ㄵ 11 ࡞ᑊࡌࡾཬㄵ࡚ࡵ㏑࡬ࡒࡻ࠹࡞ࠉࡊࡣࡊࡣࠔῺᗐ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿୕᪴ࡊࡒࠊெⅥⓏᤴฝࡢኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴࡞㛭౿࡝࠷ࠕ࡛࠷࠹୹ᘿࡡࡵ࡛ࠉࣉࣤ
࣭ࣛࡡἪ์ࡷ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡝࡜࠿ᣚࡔฝࡈࡿࠔኬẴ୯࡞࡛࡜ࡱࡾࡡ࠿ 46㸚ࠕ࡝࡜ࡡᩐᏊ࠿ྫྷᏽ
ࡈࡿࡾࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝㆗ㄵࡢࠉ├វⓏ࡞ࡵ࠽࠾ࡊࡂࠉᏽ㔖Ⓩ࡞ࡵࡢࡖࡀࡽ࡛ྫྷᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡱࡍࠉ௫࡞ࠉ⌟ᅹふῼࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴࠿ெⅥⓏ࡝ᤴฝ⏜ᮮ࡚࡝࠷࡛ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉ
ᩐ༎୒ᖳ㛣ࡵን໩࠿࡝࠾ࡖࡒ≟Ἓ࠾ࡼࠉరࡼ࠾ࡡཋᅄ࡚ᾇὊ࠾ࡼெⅥⓏ࡝ᤴฝ࡛ྜྷࡋ㔖ࡡ஦㓗
໩⅛⣪࠿࠷ࡀ࡝ࡽᨲฝࡈࡿࠉࡐࡿ࡛ྜྷ᫤࡞ධࡂྜྷ㔖ࡡெⅥⓏᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿ᾇ࡛㝛࡞ྺ཭ࡈࡿ࡝ࡂ࡙ࡢ࡝ࡼ࡝࠷ࠊࡆࡿࡢ├វⓏ࡞㟸ᖏ࡞⩻࠻࡞ࡂ࠷ࠊ௫࡞᲻ᯐఅ᤿࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡵ㝛ᇡ⏍ឺ⣌࠾ࡼᤴฝࠉࡈࡼ࡞ᾇỀῺ୕࡚᪴ᾇὊ࠾ࡼࡵᤴฝࠉெⅥⓏ࡝໩▴⇖ᩩ࠾ࡼࡵᤴฝ࡛࠷࠹ࡡ
࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉୌమࡐࡿࡼࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡢ᭩⤂Ⓩ࡞࡜ࡆ࡫⾔ࡖࡒ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡓࢀ࠹࠾ࠊ ࣉ࣭ࣤࣛࡡἪ์࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ெⅥ㉫″஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿ᾇὊ࡞ࡌ࡬࡙ྺ཭ࡈࡿࡾ࡛ㄕ᪺ࡌࡾࡡࡵᅏ㞬࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࡝ࡏ࡝ࡼࡣࠉࡵࡊெⅥ㉫″஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿ධ࡙ᾇὊ࡞ྺ཭ࡈࡿࡒ࡛ࡌࡿࡣࠉࡐࡡฦᾇὊ
୯ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡ㈻㔖ࡢኬࡀࡂ࡝ࡽࠉᖲ⾦ࡌࡾኬẴ୯ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ฦᅸࡵࡐࡿ࡞Ẓౚࡊ࡙ኬࡀ
ࡂ࡝ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉெⅥ㉫″஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡢኬẴ୯࡞ࡢṟࡖ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࡡ࡚ฦᅸࡡ୕࠿ࡽࡻ࠹࠿࡝࠷ࠊ
ࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉᐁ㝷࡞ࡢࠉெⅥ㉫″ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡୌ㒂࠿ኬẴ୯࡞ṟࡽࠉࠔᾇὊ୯ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪㔖ቌຊ࡞ᑊᚺࡌࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ฦᅸ୕᪴ࠕ࡛ࠔኬẴ࡞ṟࡖࡒ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡽࡵࡒࡼࡈࡿࡾᐁ㝷ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ฦᅸ୕᪴ࠕ࠿➴ࡊࡂ࡝ࡾ࡛ࡆࢀ࡚ᖲ⾦࠿ಕࡒࡿࡾࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

29 ࡱࡒࠉ๑㏑ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾᾇ㟻ỀῺ୕᪴Ѝ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᨲฝࡡྊ⬗ᛮࡵᐁῼ࡞
ࡻࡖ࡙᪺☔࡞ྫྷᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ ࡈࡼ࡞ࠉୖオ࡞ᣪࡅࡾࡡࡢࠉ≺❟Ⓩ࡝◂✪ᡥἪ࡞ᇱࡘ࠷ࡒ々ᩐࡡᏽ㔖Ⓩ࡝◂✪࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡌ࡬
࡙࠵ࡾ⛤ᗐࡡ⠂ᅑ࡚ࠉౚ࠻ࡣࠔெⅥⓏ࡞ᤴฝࡈࡿࡒ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡ࠹ࡔ࡚ᾇὊ࡞ྺ཭ࡈࡿࡾ㔖ࠕ࡝࡜࡞㛭ࡌࡾᩐೋ࡚࡮࡯ୌ⮬ࡊࡒ⤎ᯕࢅฝࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡵࡊࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝ᩐᏊࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡡ࡚࠵
ࡿࡣࠉୌࡗୌࡗࡡ◂✪⤎ᯕ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙රమⓏ࡝ཬッࢅᣪࡅࡾ࡬ࡀ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ
◂✪ 1㸯14C ⃨ᗐࡡን໩ ໩▴⇖ᩩ⏜ᮮெⅥⓏᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡢࠉ⅛⣪ྜྷనమ࡚࠵ࡾ 14C ࡡྱ᭯㔖࠿ᑚࡈ࠷ࠊࡊ
ࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉᅒ 10 ࡞♟ࡊࡒࡻ࠹࡝ኬẴ୯ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡞ྱࡱࡿࡾ 14C ࡡ⃨ᗐን໩ࢅぜࡿࡣࠉኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ୕᪴࠿໩▴⇖ᩩ⏜ᮮெⅥⓏᤴฝ࡞ࡻࡾ࠾ྫྷ࠾࠿ࢂ࠾ࡾ4㸝Damon et al. 1973㸰Baxter and Walton 1970㸞ࠊ           
ᅒ 10 ኬẴ୯ࡡ࠽ࡄࡾ 14 C ⃨ᗐࡡን໩                    ฝᡜ㸯 Hadley Center㸝2005㸞◂✪ 2㸯O2 ⃨ᗐࡡን໩ ኬẴ୯ࡡ㓗⣪ࡡ⃨ᗐࡢࠉ໩▴⇖ᩩ⏜ᮮࡡெⅥⓏ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᤴฝ࠽ࡻࡦ㝛ᇡ᳔⏍࡞ࡻࡾྺ཭࡞
ࡻࡖ࡙ን໩ࡌࡾ࠿ࠉᾇὊ࡞ࡻࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ྺ཭࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡢን໩ࡊ࡝࠷ࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉKeeling etal.㸝1996㸞࡚᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ࠉኬẴ୯ࡡ㓗⣪࡛஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡን໩ࢅ࠵ࢂࡎ࡙ぜࡿࡣࠉெⅥⓏᤴฝࢅྱࡴࡒ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡᤴฝ࣬ྺ཭″ࡡᐞ୙ᗐ࠿ࢂ࠾ࡾ㸝ᅒ 11㸞ࠊࡆࡿ࡞㛭ࡊ
࡙ ࡢ IPCC ➠ ୔ ḗ ሒ ࿈ ᭡ ࡚ レ ࡊ ࡂ ㆗ ㄵ ࡈ ࡿ ࡙ ࠷ ࡾ 㸝 IPCC, 2001 㸞ࠊ ౚ ࠻ ࡣ
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/fig3-4.htm ࢅཤ↯ࡎࡻࠊ 㝛୕⏍ឺ⣌࡞ࡻࡾྺ཭ࡢࠉኬẴࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪཭ᨥࢅᆀᇡื࣬Ꮢ⟿Ⓩ࡞ฦࡄ࡙よᯊࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡝

࡜࡞ࡻࡽࠉ୹࡞໪༖⌣୯࣬㧏⦃ᗐࡡ᳔⏍࠿ྺ཭ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛࠿ࢂ࠾ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᮄࠉⲙࠉ
4 ࡻࡽレ⣵ࡢࠉThe global carbon cycle. Chapter 2: Variations in atmospheric CO

2 content, by H..D.Freyer.

㸝http://www.icsu-scope.org/downloadpubs/scope13/chapter03.html#abs㸞ࢅཤ↯ࡎࡻࠊ30     
ᅒ 11 O2 ࡛ CO2 ࡡふῼ⤎ᯕ࠾ࡼᚋࡼࡿࡒ㎾ᖳࡡ CO2 ཭ᨥ࡞㛭ࡌࡾᶅᘟᅒ             ฝᡜ㸯᮶໪ኬᏕኬẴᾇὊንິふῼ◂✪ࢬࣤࢰ࣭㸝2006㸞

ᅰቫ࡝࡜࡫ࡡ㒼ฦࡷࠉ࡜ࡡ⛤ᗐᏭᏽࡊࡒᙟ࡚㈋ⶮࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢᮅよ᪺࡝ࡆ࡛ࡵኣ࠷ࠊ
㝛୕⏍ឺ⣌ࡡྺ཭࠿ࡨ࠻ࡒ⌦⏜ࡡୌ㒂ࡢࠉᆀᇡࡷ⏍∸⛸࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ୌᵕ࡚࡝࠷ࡵࡡࡡࠉ1㸞≁࡞໪⡷ࡷ࣭ࣙࣞࢴࣂ࡞࠽ࡄࡾኣࡂࡡ㎨ᆀ࠿౐ࢂࡿ࡝ࡂ࡝ࡖ࡙᲻ᯐ࡞࡝ࡾ༟࡝ࡾᅰᆀฺ⏕࠿ን໩㸝Caspersen et al. 2000㸞ࠉ2 㸞஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡቌຊ࠽ࡻࡦẴುን໩࠿කྙᠺ࡞ࡻࡾ᭯ᶭ∸⏍⏐࡞ฺ᭯࡞ష⏕ࠉ3㸞ኬẴỗ᯹ࡷ⫟ᩩ࡞⏜ᮮࡌࡾ✽⣪࡞ࡻࡾ᪃⫟ຝᯕࠉ࡝࡜࡚ㄕ᪺ࡈࡿࡾࠊ

◂✪ 3㸯ᾇὊ୯⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡን໩㸝6 ࡗࡡ≺❟ࡊࡒᡥἪ㸞 ኬẴ࡛஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࢅࡷࡽཱིࡽࡌࡾࡡࡢᾇὊ࡛㝛ᇡ⏍∸ᅥࡡ 2 ࡗࡓࡄ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉኬ
Ẵ୯ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡୌ㒂࡚ࡵ࠿ᾇὊ࡝ࡽ㝛ᇡ࠾ࡼᤴฝࡈࡿࡒࡵࡡ࡝ࡡ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉࡆࡿࡼࡡ஦ࡗ
࠿㈋ⶮࡌࡾ⅛⣪㔖ࡡ΅ᑛ࠿ᐁ㝷࡞ゝῼࡈࡿࡾࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡿ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉࡌ࡚࡞௧ୖࡡ 6 ࡗࡡ≺❟ࡊࡒᡥἪࢅ⏕࠷ࡒᏽ㔖Ⓩ࡝ฦᯊ࠿࡝ࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉኬẴ࡛ᾇ࡛ࡡࡷࡽ࡛ࡽ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉࡌ࡬
࡙࡮࡯ୌ⮬ࡊࡒ⤎ᯕ㸝ᾇὊ⅛⣪㔖΅ᑛࡡྫྷᏽ㸞ࢅ᪺☔࡞♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ

1㸞ᾇὊ⾪㟻ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ฦᅸࡡ├᥃ふῼ㸝Takahashi et al. 2002㸞
2㸞␏࡝ࡾᾇᇡ࡫ࡡ⅛⣪ᚘ⎌㔖ࢅ♟ࡌ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡኬẴ୯ࡡ✭㛣ฦᕱふῼ㸝Bousquet et al. 2000㸞
3㸞⏍మࣈࣞࢬࢪᙫ㡢ࢅᤴ㝎ࡊࡒ CFC ࡛⅛⣪ࠉ㓗⣪ࠉ㣬ฦࡡ⥪ྙふῼ 㸝Sabine et al. 2004㸞
4㸞CFCs ࡞ࡻࡾỀࡡᖳ㱃᥆ᏽ࡛⤄ࡲྙࢂࡎࡒ⅛⣪࡛࢓ࣜ࢜ࣛᛮࡡ஦ᅂࡡふῼ㸝McNeil et al.
2002㸞
5㸞ኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪ቌຊ࡛㓗⣪΅ᑛࡡྜྷ᫤ふῼ㸝Keeling et al. 1996㸞
6㸞ኬẴ୯஦㓗໩⅛⣪ቌຊ࡛ 13C ΅ᑛࡡྜྷ᫤ふῼ㸝Ciais et al. 1995㸞

31 ࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉ⌟᫤Ⅴ㸝2007 ᖳ 2 ᭮㸞࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉᾇὊ୯⅛⣪࡞㛭ࡊ࡙΅ᑛࢅ♟ࡌふῼࡡሒ࿈ᩐ
ࡢࢭ࡚ࣞ࠵ࡾࠊୌ᪁ࠉ୕㏑ࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉቌຊࢅ♟ࡌふῼࡡሒ࿈ᩐࡢࠉ6 ࡗࡡ≺❟ࡊࡒᡥἪࢅ⏕࠷
࡙ 20 ௧୕ࡡ◂✪ᩝ⊡࠿࠵ࡾࠊ⧖ࡽ㏁ࡊ࡙ゕ࠹࠿ࠉࡵࡊࠉࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝ᩐᏊࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡡ࡚࠵ࡿ
ࡣࠉୌࡗୌࡗࡡ◂✪⤎ᯕ࡞ᑊࡊ࡙රమⓏ࡝ཬッࢅᣪࡅࡾ࡬ࡀ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

㆗ㄵ 16. ⌟௥ࡡ⛁Ꮥ࡚ึࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࠉᆀ⌣࠿Ὼᬦ໩ࡌࡾ࡛ᾇ㟻࠿୕᪴ࡌࡾྊ⬗ᛮ࠿㧏࠷ࠊࡒࡓࡊࠉࡐࡡ⌦⏜ࡢࠉ໪ᴗࡷ༞ᴗࡡể࠿⁈ࡄࡾ࠾ࡼ࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉᾇࡡỀ࠿⭶ᘿࡌࡾ࠾ࡼ࡚࠵ࡾ㸝Ṃ⏛
2007, p.125㸞

㸱ཬㄵ㸳
ࡱࡍࠉ
ࠔểࠕ࡞ࡢࠉểἑࠉểᗃࠉểᖐࠉểὮࠉᲬểࠉểᒜࠉᾇể࡝࡜࠿࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅᣞᦤࡊ࡙࠽
ࡂࠊ☔࠾࡞ࠉṂ⏛㸝2007㸞࠿ᣞᦤࡌࡾࡻ࠹࡞ࠉ࢓࣒ࣜ࢞ࢸࢪࡡཋ⌦࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᾇỀ㟻୕᪴࡞ᑊࡌ
ࡾểᒜ㸝ểἑ࡝࡜࠾ࡼể࠿ᓻࡿⴘࡔ࡙ᾇ࡞ᾃ࠾ࢆ࡚࠷ࡾࡵࡡ㸞ࡷᾇể㸝ᾇỀ࠿෼ࡖࡒࡵࡡ㸞ࡡ⁈よ࡞ࡻࡾᙫ㡢ࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞ᑚࡈ࠷ࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉểᒜࡡሔྙࠉểἑ࡝࡜࠿ᓻⴘࡊ࡙ểᒜࡡ࡚ࡀࡾ█㛣࡞ᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡢ⏍ࡋࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉểᒜ࡛ᾇỀࡡሲฦ⃨ᗐ࠿␏࡝ࡾࡒࡴ࡞ࠉࢂࡍ࠾࡚ࡢ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉểᒜ࠿⁈ࡄࡾ࡛ኣᑛࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡢ㉫ࡀࡾࠊୌ᪁ࠉ㝛ᇡࡡ୕࡞ᏋᅹࡌࡾểᗃࡷểᲬ࡝࡜ࡡ⼝よ࡞ࡻࡾᾇ㟻୕᪴ࡢ↋っ࡚ࡀ࡝࠷ኬ
ࡀࡈ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉṂ⏛㸝2007㸞ࡢࠉ1㸞㝛ࡡể࠿⁈ࡄ࡙Ề࡞࡝ࡖ࡙ᾇ࡞࠷ࡂࠉ2㸞㝛ࡡể࠿ᓻࡿ࡙ểࡡࡱࡱᾇ࡞࠷ࡂࠉ࡛࠷࠹஦ࡗࡡࣈࣞࢬࢪ࡞ᑊࡌࡾヾㆉ࠿༎ฦ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ᭩᩺ࡡ IPCC ➠ 4 ḗሒ࿈᭡㸝IPCC 2007㸞ࡢࠉᵕࠍ࡝さᅄࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴࡫ࡡᐞ୙ᗐࢅ᪺ࡼ࠾࡞ࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡐࡿ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ
1993 ᖳࠤ2003 ᖳ࡞㉫ࡀࡒᾇ㟻୕᪴㸝3.1 s 0.7 mm/year㸞࡫ࡡᐞ୙ᗐࡢࠉ⇍⭶ᘿ࠿ 1.6 s
0.5mm/yearࠉểἑ࡛ểᖐࡡ⼝よ࠿ 0.77 s 0.22mm/yearࠉࢡ࣭ࣛࣤࣚࣤࢺࡡểᗃ⼝よ࠿ 0.21 s
0.07mm/yearࠉ༞ᴗࡡểᗃ⼝よ࠿ 0.21 s 0.35mm/year ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉ༞ᴗࡷ໪ᴗ࡝࡜
࡞࠽ࡄࡾࠔểࠕࡡᾇ㟻୕᪴࡫ࡡᐞ୙ᗐࡢ 3 ฦࡡ 1 ⛤ᗐ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾࠊ

32

3.3. ᆀ⌣ኬẴࡡᵋ㏸࣬කᏕ≁ᛮ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ㆗ ㄵ᠔␪ㄵ⩽ࡡ㛣࡚඼ᆵⓏ࡝㆗ㄵ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉࠔ㉝አ⥲ྺ཭ࡡ୹ᙲࡢỀⵠẴ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡቌຊ࡝࡜࡛ࡾ࡞㊂ࡼ࡝࠷ࠕࠉࡱࡒࠉࠔ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾ㉝አ⥲ྺ཭ࡢ㣤࿰ࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ⃨ᗐ࠿ቌຊࡊ࡙
ࡵ᪴Ὼ࡞ࡗ࡝࠿ࡼ࡝࠷ࠕ࡛࠷ࡖࡒࡵࡡ࠿࠵ࡾࠊࡱࡒᵌ⏛㸝2004ࠉ2006㸞ࡢ≺⮤ࡡ⌦ㄵ࡞ࡻࡽᆀ
⌣⾪㟻ࡡẴῺ࠿஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࡞ࡻࡼ࡝࠷ධࡂืࡡ㐛⛤࡞ࡻࡖ࡙Ửࡱࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛୹ᘿࡌࡾࠊᮇ
⟿࡚ࡢࠉࡆࡿࡼࡡ୹ᘿࡡ⫴ᚃ࡞࠵ࡾㄏよ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ᣞᦤࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡂࠊ

㆗ㄵ 17. ᑊὮᅥ୕㒂ࡡኬẴῺᗐࡢࠉࡐࡡኬẴ୯ࡡỀⵠẴࡡฦᏄᣲິ࡞ࡻࡾᏫᏼ࡫ࡡᨲ⇍࡚ỬࡱࡾࠊࡆࡡῺᗐࡢ࣏࢕ࢻࢪ 18Υ࡚࠵ࡾࠊṟࡽࡡᑊὮᅥኬẴࡡᇱ‵ῺᗐࡢẴᅸ࡚Ửࡱࡾࠊ㧏ᗐࡡୖ㜾࡞ఔ࠷Ẵᅸ࠿୕࠿ࡾ࡛Ὼᗐ࠿୕࠿ࡾࠊᆀ୕ࡡῺᗐࡢ㸝ẴῺ㸞ࡢࠉ1 Ẵᅸ࡚ࡡᇱ‵Ὼᗐࡡ௛㎾
࡞࠵ࡾࠊᇱ‵ῺᗐࡻࡽࡵᑊὮᅥኬẴࡡῺᗐ࠿㧏ࡂ࡝ࡾ࡛୘Ꮽᏽ࡞࡝ࡽࠉᑊὮ࡛ࡐࡿ࡞ఔ࠹ⵠẴ㜾㞭࠿Ⓠ⏍ࡊ࡙෫༴ࡈࡿࡾࡡ࡚ࠉᇱ‵Ὼᗐࡢ⥌ᣚࡈࡿࡾ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2004㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᆀ⌣ࡡ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟཭ᨥࡢࡗࡽ࠵ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛㎾జ࡚ࡀࡾࡡ࡚ࠉᆀ⌣࠿ྺ཭ࡌࡾኯ㝟࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟
ࡡ㔖࠿ንࢂࡼ࡝ࡄࡿࡣࠉᏫᏼ࠾ࡼぜࡒ࡛ࡀ࡞ᆀ⌣࠿ฝࡌᨲᑏࡡ௥⾪Ὼᗐ㸝᭯ຝᨲᑏῺᗐ㸞ࡢୌᏽ㸝࣏࢕ࢻࢪ 18Υ㸞࡛ࡲ࡝ࡊ࡙ࡵࡻ࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉᑊὮᅥࡡ㕼├Ὼᗐ໖㒼ࡢ㎾జⓏ࡞ࡢୌᏽ࡛ࡲ࡝
ࡊ࡙ࡵࡻ࠷ࠊ ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡡ୹ᘿ࡚ࡢࠉᨲᑏࡡ௥⾪Ὼᗐࢅࡵࡗ㧏ࡈ࠿ን໩ࡌࡾࡆ࡛࠿ぜⴘ࡛ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊῺᐄຝᯕ∸㈻࠿ኣ࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡢࠉ㉝አ⥲࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ኬẴ࠿ࡻࡽ୘㏩᪺ࡓ࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡓ
࠾ࡼࠉ㉝አ⥲࡚Ꮻᏼ࠾ࡼぜ࠻ࡾࡡࡢࡻࡽአഁࠉࡗࡱࡽࡻࡽ㧏࠷࡛ࡆࢀ࡞࡝ࡾࠊࡗࡱࡽࠉᨲᑏࡡ
௥⾪Ὼᗐࢅࡵࡗ㧏ࡈࡢῺᐄຝᯕ∸㈻࠿ኣ࠷࡮࡜㧏ࡂ࡝ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉῺᗐ໖㒼࠿ୌᏽ࡝ࡼࡣࠉ
ᆀ㟻௛㎾ࡡẴῺࡢࠉࡻࡽ㧏ࡂ࡝ࡾࠊࡆࡿࡢ┷㘘࡞ࡻࡾḗࡡ᭯ྞ࡝Ὼᐄຝᯕࡡㄕ᪺࡞௙࡝ࡼ࡝࠷
㸝ౚ࠻ࡣ┷㘘 1985㸞ࠊᅒ 12 ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࠉᆀ⌣ࡡฝࡌᨲᑏࡡ௥⾪Ὼᗐ࠿ Te ࡚ࠉኯ㝟࠾ࡼུࡄཱིࡾ
ᨲᑏ࡛ࡗࡽ࠵ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛ࡌࡾࠊᐁ⥲ࡡῺᗐฦᕱ࡝ࡼࡣࠉᅒ 12 ࡡ A ࠿ᨲᑏࢅฝࡌ௥⾪న⨠࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡆ࡚ኬẴ࠿㉝አ⥲࡞ᑊࡊ࡙ࡻࡽ୘㏩᪺࡞࡝ࡖࡒ࡛ࡌࡾ࡛ࠉᨲᑏࢅฝࡌ௥⾪న⨠࠿ A'࡞ንࢂࡾࠊ࡛ࡆࢀ࠿ࡆࡿ࡚ࡢᆀ⌣࠿ฝࡌ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟࠿ུࡄཱིࡾኯ㝟࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ࡻࡽᑛ࡝࠷ࡡ࡚ࠉᆀ
⌣㸝ኬẴ࣬ᾇὊ㸞࠿ᬦࡱࡖ࡙࠷ࡂࠊA'ࡡ㧏ࡈࡡῺᗐ࠿ Te ࡛࡝ࡾ◒⥲ࡡῺᗐฦᕱࡱ࡚ኬẴධమ࠿ᬦࡱࡖ࡙ࠉᆀ⌣ࡡ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟཭ᨥ࠿ࡗࡽ࠵࠹ࡆ࡛࡞࡝ࡾࠊ࡝࠽ࠉᐁ㝷࡞ࡢᆀ⾪௛㎾ࡡẴῺࡢࡆࡿࡓࡄ࠾ࡼࡢỬࡱࡼࡍࠉᆀ⾪㟻࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟཭ᨥࡡᙫ㡢ࢅུࡄࡾⅤ࡞Ἰណ࠿ᚪさ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ33                             ᅒ 12 ẴῺ࡛㧏ᗐ࡛ࡡ㛭౿ࢅ♟ࡌᶅᘟᅒ                     ฝᡜ㸯┷㘘㸝1985㸞්㘋 හᔪ㸝1990㸞

㆗ㄵ 18. ᠺᒒᅥ࡚ࡵኬẴࡢᚘ⎌ࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡐࡡ⤎ᯕ⛂㏷ 60 ࣒࣭ࢹࣜࡵࡡ㢴࠿ྻ࠷࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚
ᖲ⾦≟ឺ࡛ࡢ࡛࡙ࡵゕ࠻࡝࠷ࠊࡱࡊ࡙ࠉᑊὮᅥ࡚ࡢࠉ✒஗㞴࠿ぜࡼࡿࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᆀ⾪࠾ࡼᑊὮᅥ
୕㒂ࡱ࡚├⤎ࡊ⃥࡙ࡊ࠷Ὡິ࠿࠵ࡽࠉࡆࡿࢅᖲ⾦࡚㎾జࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࡐࡵࡐࡵ↋⌦࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡐࡡ
ࡻ࠹࡝ᖲ⾦࣓ࢸࣜࢅฝⓆⅤ࡛ࡌࡾᆀ⌣Ὼᬦ໩ㄵ࡚ࡢḿࡊ࠷➽࠻࠿ᚋࡼࡿࡾࡢࡍ࠿࡝࠷㸝ᵌ⏛
2005b㸰ᵌ⏛ 2006㸞
ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᨲᑏᑊὮᖲ⾦࣓ࢸࣜࡡࠔᖲ⾦ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ᴣᛍ࡞ᨼវ࡞ཬᚺࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡚࠵ࡾ࠿ࠉࡆࡆ࡚ࡢࡱ
ࡍ⏕ㄊࡡណ࿝ࡡ㣏࠷㐢࠷࡞㉫ᅄࡌࡾㄏよ࠿࠵ࡾࡆ࡛࡞Ἰណࡊࡒ࠷ࠊẴು࣓ࢸࣜࡡᩝ⬞࡚ࠔᖲ⾦ࠕ࡛࠷࠹⏕ㄊ࠿ណ࿝ࡌࡾࡡࡢࠉ⇍ງᏕⓏ࡝⏕ㄊ࡚ࡢࠔᖲ⾦≟ឺࠕ㸝࢙ࣤࢹࣞࣅ࣭ᴗኬࡡ࠷ࢂࡹࡾ
ࠔ⇍ⓏṒࠕࡡ≟ឺ㸞࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉ
ࠔ㟸ᖲ⾦ᏽᖏ≟ឺࠕ㸝࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ࡡฝථࡽ࡞ࡻࡽ࢙ࣤࢹࣞࣅ࣭ࢅ
఩ࡂಕࡖࡒࡱࡱ᫤㛣Ⓩ࡞ᏽᖏ࡝≟ឺ㸞ࡡࡆ࡛࡚࠵ࡾࠊᆀ⌣ࡢ⇍ງᏕⓏ࡞ࡢ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟࡞ࡗ࠷࡙
㛜࠷ࡒ㟸ᖲ⾦⣌࡚࠵ࡾࡒࡴࠉᆀ⌣∸⌦Ꮥ࡚ࡢ㸝ᑛ࡝ࡂ࡛ࡵኬᚘ⎌ࡡࢪࢢ࣭࡚ࣜࡢ㸞Ꮣ❟⣌ࡡ⇍
ງᏕⓏᖲ⾦≟ឺࢅၡ㢗࡞ࡌࡾᶭఌ࠿↋࠷ࡆ࡛࠾ࡼࠉࠔᖲ⾦ࠕ࡛࠷࠹⏕ㄊ࠿⇍ງᏕⓏᖲ⾦࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂ༟࡞አ㒂᮪௲࡞ࣁࣚࣤࢪࡊࡒ᫤㛣Ⓩ࡝ᏽᖏ≟ឺࢅ⾪ࡌណ࿝࡚⏕࠷ࡼࡿࡾࡆ࡛࠿ៈౚ໩ࡊ࡙
࠷ࡾࡵࡡ࡛ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊࡆࡿࢅ⇍ງᏕⓏᖲ⾦ུ࡛ࡄཱིࡼࡿࡾ࡛ࠉኬࡀ࡝ㄏよࢅᣅࡂྊ⬗ᛮ࠿࠵ࡾࠊ
ࡆࡡⅤࡢᆀ⌣∸⌦Ꮥ⩽㸝Ẵ㇗Ꮥ⩽㸞ࡡഁ࠾ࡼࡵἸណࡌ࡬ࡀⅤ࡛ゕ࠻ࡾ࠾ࡵࡊࡿ࡝࠷ࠊ
ࡈ࡙ࠉࡆࡡⅤ࡞Ἰណࡌࡿࡣࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡡㄏよࢅᣞᦤࡌࡾࡡࡢᐖ᪾࡚࠵ࡾࠊ㕼├ 1 ḗඔᨲᑏᑊὮᖲ⾦࣓ࢸ࡚ࣜࡢࠉỀᖲ᪁ྡྷ࡞ᖲᆍ໩ࡈࡿࡒ㕼├Ὼᗐᵋ㏸ࢅၡ㢗࡞ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᠺᒒᅥࡡᚘ
⎌ࡢ㢴㏷࠿ኬࡀࡂ࡙ࡵỀᖲᖲᆍࡊࡒ㕼├Ὼᗐᵋ㏸ࡡን໩࡞ኬࡀࡂᐞ୙ࡊ࡝࠷ࡡ࡚ࠉࡐࡡຝᯕࡢ
┤␆ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࠿ࠉࡆࡿࡢ࣓ࢸࣜ࠿ࠔᠺᒒᅥࡡኬẴ࠿ᚘ⎌ࡊ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࠕ࡛௫ᏽࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ

34

ណ࿝ࡊ࡝࠷ࠊ✒஗㞴࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࡢࡐࡡᖲᆍⓏ࡝ຝᯕࢅᑊὮㄢ⟿࡛࿣ࡣࡿࡾ㎾జ㸝ࣂ࣒ࣚࢰࣛࢭ࣭
ࢨࣘࣤ㸞࡞ࡻࡽ⩻៎ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ࠉ࣓ࢸࣜࡢࠔᑊὮᅥࡡ㕼├㐘ິ࠿Ꮛᅹࡊ࡝࠷ࠕ࡛ࡵ௫ᏽࡊ࡙
࠷࡝࠷ࠊ
࡝࠽ࠉ㎾ᖳῺᬦ໩ࡡ◂✪࡞ࡻࡂ⏕࠷ࡼࡿࡾ 3 ḗඔࡡኬẴኬᚘ⎌࣓ࢸ࡚ࣜࡢࠉᠺᒒᅥࡡᚘ⎌ࡵᑊὮᅥࡡ㕼├㐘ິࡵ㸝✒஗㞴ࡡຝᯕࡢࣂ࣒ࣚࢰࣛࢭ࣭ࢨ࡚ࣘࣤ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡ㸞᪺♟Ⓩ࡞⾪⌟ࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ᫤㛣Ⓩ࡝ᏽᖏ≟ឺࡵ௫ᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࡡ࡚ࠉᵌ⏛㸝2006㸞ࡡᢀึࡢࡈࡼ࡞ᙔࡒࡼ࡝࠷ࠊ

㆗ㄵ 19. ẴῺࡢࠉ1㸞ᑊὮᅥ୕✭ࡡῺᗐࠉ2㸞᩷⇍ᅸ⦨ࠉ3㸞ỀⵠẴࢅཋᅄ࡛ࡌࡾᑊὮࠉ࡚Ửࡱ
ࡾࠊCO2 Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࡢࠉࡆࡿࢅ༎ฦ࡞⩻៎ࡊ࡙࠷࡝࠷㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ࡆࡡ 3 㡧┘࡞ࡢᨲᑏ㐛⛤࠿Ḗⴘࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᑊὮᅥࡡ㕼├Ὼᗐ໖㒼࠿ᇱᮇⓏ࡞ᑊὮ࡚Ửࡱࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ☔࠾ࡓ࠿ࠉῺᗐࡐࡡࡵࡡࢅỬࡴࡾ୕࡚ࡢᨲᑏ㐛⛤ࡢ↋っ࡚ࡀ࡝࠷ࠊ ࡱࡍࠉ௫࡞ỀⵠẴࡡฆ⤎࣬ⵠⓆ㐛⛤࠿࡝࠷ሔྙࢅ⩻࠻ࡾࠊஜ⇩᩷⇍໖㒼ࡻࡽࡀࡗ࠷໖㒼ࡢࠉᑊὮ࠿㉫ࡆࡾࡡ࡚㛏⤾ࡀࡊ࡝࠷ࠊ㏣࡞ࡹࡾ࠷ሔྙ㸝୕ୖ㏣㌹ࡊࡒሔྙࢅྱࡳ㸞ࡢᑊὮ࠿ᢒโࡈ
ࡿࡾࡡ࡚ᣚ⤾ྊ⬗࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉ᫤✭㛣ᖲᆍࡊࡒ㕼├Ὼᗐ໖㒼ࡢࠉஜ⇩᩷⇍໖㒼࠾ࡐࡿࡻࡽࡹࡾ࠷ࠊᆀ⌣ኬẴࡡᑊὮᅥࡡ≟Ἓ࡚ࡢୖ❻ࡡᆀ⾪㟻࡞ኯ㝟ᨲᑏྺ཭࡞ࡻࡾ⇍″࠿࠵ࡾࡡ࡚ࠉ
ᚪࡍᑊὮ࠿㉫ࡀࠉᖲᆍࡡ㕼├Ὼᗐ໖㒼ࡢஜ⇩᩷⇍໖㒼࡞㎾ࡂ࡝ࡾࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ỀⵠẴࡡຝᯕࡢࠉᇱᮇⓏ࡞ฆ⤎࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ỀⵠẴࡡᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡒ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟࠿ࡱࢂࡽࡡ✭Ẵ࡞⛛ࡽࡐࡡῺᗐࢅ୕ࡅࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡀࡂ㸝ỀⵠẴࡡฆ⤎࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ኬẴࢅຊ⇍ࡊ࡙㍇ࡂࡌࡾ㸞ࠊฆ⤎ࡊ࡝࠿ࡼ୕᪴ࡌࡾ✭ẴምࡡῺᗐን໩ࡢ‭₮᩷⇍໖㒼࡛࿣ࡣࡿࡾࡵࡡ࡞࡝ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉỀࢅ㜾Ề࡛ࡊ࡙ⴘ࡛ࡊࡒ࠵࡛ୖ㜾ࡌࡾ✭ẴምࡡῺᗐን໩ࡷࠉ୕᪴୯࡚ࡵฆ⤎࠿㐅⾔ࡊ࡝࠷ሔྙࡡῺᗐ
ን໩ࡢஜ⇩᩷⇍໖㒼࡞㎾࠷ࡵࡡ࡞࡝ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉ⌟ᐁࡡኬẴࡡ㕼├Ὼᗐ໖㒼ࡢࠉ‭₮᩷⇍࡛ஜ⇩᩷⇍ࡡ୯㛣࡛࡝ࡾࠊ ௫࡞ᨲᑏ࡞ࡀࡂណ࿝࡚ࡡỀⵠẴࡷ௙ࡡẴమᠺฦ࢙࣭࣬ࣞࢯࣜࡡ㔖࠿ྜྷࡋ࡛ࡌࡿࡣࠉᆀ⌣࠿ฝࡌᨲᑏࡡ௥⾪Ὼᗐ࡛ࡐࡡῺᗐࢅࡵࡗ㧏ࡈ࠿ᅖᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ࡛ࡲ࡙ࡻ࠷ࠊࡐࡡ᮪௲࡚ஜ⇩ᑊὮࡡሔྙ࡛‭₮ᑊὮࡡሔྙࢅẒ㍉ࡌࡿࡣࠉᆀ୕ẴῺࡢ‭₮ᑊὮࡡሔྙࡡ࡮࠹࠿఩ࡂ࡝ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ
ᨲᑏ࡞ࡀࡂ∸㈻ࡡ㔖࠿ን໩ࡌࡿࡣࠉ௥⾪Ὼᗐࢅᣚࡗ㧏ࡈࡢን໩ࡊ࠹ࡾࠊῺᗐ໖㒼࠿ᅖᏽࡈࡿ࡙
࠷࡙ࡵࠉᆀ୕ẴῺ࠿ᑊὮࡓࡄ࡚Ửࡱࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ

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㆗ㄵ 20. ỀⵠẴࡡ⃨ᗐንິࡢኬࡀ࠷ࠊ30 Υ࡚㣤࿰ỀⵠẴࡢ 42000 ppmࠉ10Υ࡚ࡢࠉ12000 ppmࠉ0Υ࡚ࡢࠉ6000 ppm ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉẴῺ࠿ୖ࠿ࡾ࡛ᆀ⾪࠾ࡼᨲᑏࡈࡿࡾ㐪㉝አ⥲ࡢኬẴ
ࢅ㏳㐛ࡊ࡙Ꮻᏼ࡞ᨲฝࡈࡿ᪾ࡂ࡝ࡾ㸝ᨲᑏ෫༴㸞ࠊᐨ෫໩ࡌࡾ࡛ࡱࡌࡱࡌᐨࡂ࡝ࡾ㸝㏣ࡵḿࡊ࠷㸞ࠊࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡞Ὼᬦ໩࢝ࢪࡡ୹ᙲࡢỀⵠẴ࡚࠵ࡾࠊCO2 ࠿ 100 ppm ቌ࠻ࡒ࡛ࡆࢀ࡚ࠉࡆࡡỀⵠẴῺᗐࡡንິᖕࡡ⠂ᅑහ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉῺᬦ໩࢝ࢪ࡛ࡊ࡙ࡡỀⵠẴ࡞ࡻࡾಕῺຝᯕࢅኬࡀࡂಞḿࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡢ࡝ࡼ࡝࠷㸝ᵌ⏛ 2005b㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᆀ⌣ኬẴࡡῺᐄຝᯕࢅࡵࡒࡼࡌ᭩ኬࡡさᅄ࠿ỀⵠẴ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢḿࡊ࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉᾇࡡ࠵ࡾࡵ
࡛࡚ࡢࠉኬẴ୯ࡡỀⵠẴ㔖ࡢ࡮࡯㣤࿰ỀⵠẴ㔖࡞Ẓౚࡊ࡙ቌຊࡌࡾ࡛ᛦࢂࡿࡾࡡ࡚ࠉῺᗐ࡞ᑊ
ࡊ࡙ỀⵠẴࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࠿ḿࡡࣆ࢔࣭ࢺࣁࢴࢠ࡞࡝ࡾࡆ࡛ࡵᜅࡼࡂḿࡊ࠷ࠊᐁ㝷࡞ࠉῺᬦ໩஢ῼ
࡞⏕࠷ࡼࡿࡾ 3 ḗඔẴು࣓ࢸࣜ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉỀⵠẴ࡞ࡻࡾ㉝አ⥲ࡡྺ཭࣬ᑏฝࡢ஦㓗໩⅛⣪➴࡛ྜྷᵕ࡞ᙔ↓⩻៎ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ
ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉỀⵠẴࡢࡌ࡬࡙ࡡἴ㛏ࡡ㉝አ⥲ࢅᙁࡂྺ཭࣬ᑏฝࡌࡾࢂࡄ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࠉ࣒ࢰࣤࠉN2Oࠉࣆࣞࣤ࡝࡜ࡢࠉỀⵠẴࡡྺ཭ࡡᘽ࠷ἴ㛏ᖈࡡୌ㒂ࢅᙁࡂྺ཭࣬ᑏฝࡌࡾࠊࡐࡡ
ྺ཭ἴ㛏ᖈࡡ㉝አ⥲࡞ࡻࡾ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ࡡࡷࡽ࡛ࡽ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ㝀ࡽࡢࠉỀⵠẴࡻࡽࡵ㔔さ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡈࡼ࡞ࠉᠺᒒᅥ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࡢࠉỀⵠẴ㔖࠿㟸ᖏ࡞ᑚࡈ࠷ࡒࡴࠉ㉝አ⥲ࡡᨲᑏ࡞࠽࠷࡙ࠉỀⵠẴࡻࡽࡵ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡ᪁࠿㔔さ࡝ᙲ๪ࢅᯕࡒࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊᮇ✇ࡡࠔࡢࡋࡴ࡞ࠕ࡚⣺௒ࡊࡒࣇࣞࢡ “RealClimate” ࡚ࡡ㆗ㄵ 㸝Schmidt 2005㸞 ࡞ࡻࡿࡣࠉኬẴࡡῺᐄຝᯕධమ࡞༥ࡴࡾỀⵠẴࡡᐞ୙ࡢࠉ
㞴࡞ࡻࡾྺ཭ࡡຝᯕࡵྱࡴ 80ࠤ90㸚⛤ᗐ࡚ࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡᐞ୙ࡢ 20ࠤ30㸚࡚࠵ࡾ㸝ྺ཭ᖈࡡ㔔࡝ࡽࡡၡ㢗࠿࠵ࡾࡡ࡚྘⛸ῺᐄຝᯕẴమࡡᐞ୙ᗐࡡ࿰ࡢ 100㸚࡞࡝ࡼ࡝࠷㸞ࠊࡆࡿࡢࠉGISS
GCM ࡡ୯ࡡᨲᑏࣈࣞࢡ࣑ࣚ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ᚋࡼࡿࡒᩐೋ࡚࠵ࡾࠊSchmidt㸝2005㸞ࡢࡆࡡᩐೋࡢ
Ramanathan and Coakley㸝1978㸞ࡡ㕼├ 1 ḗඔ࣓ࢸࣜࡡゝ⟤⤎ᯕ࡛ࡵࡻࡂᑊᚺࡌࡾ࡛㏑࡬࡙࠷ࡾࠊ
ࡆࡆ࡚ࠉᆀ⌣ኬẴධమࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࠿ᆀ⾪ẴῺ࡚ 33Υࡡ୕᪴࡞┞ᙔࡌࡾࡆ࡛࠾ࡼࠉẒౚゝ⟤ࡌࡿࡣ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡᐞ୙ࡢῺᗐ࡞├ࡊ࡙ 7ࠤ10Υ࡛フ౮࡚ࡀࡾࠊࡆ࠹ࡊࡒぜ✒ࡽ࠾ࡼࠉࡒ࡛࠻ỀⵠẴ࠿᭩ࡵ㔔さ࡝Ὼᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࡵࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿⏐ᴏ㠁࿤௧๑࡛Ẓ࡬ 2 ಶࠉ3 ಶ࡛࡝ࡿࡣẴು࡞ᙫ㡢ࢅ୙࠻࠹ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢ༎ฦ࡞⣙ᚋ࡚ࡀࡾ࡚࠵ࢀ࠹ࠊ ࡝࠽ࠉỀⵠẴࡢ㏳ᖏࠉᨲᑏᙁโງࢅࡵࡒࡼࡌࠔெⅥ㉫″ࠕῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪ࡞ྱࡴࡼࡿ࡝࠷࠿ࠉ
ࡆࡿࡢࠉኬẴ୯ࡡỀⵠẴ㔖ࢅỬࡴࡾさᅄ࠿࠽ࡵ࡞ኬẴ࡛ᾇὊ࠽ࡻࡦ㝛㟻࡛ࡡ㛣ࡡஹᥦ㸝ⵠⓆ࣬㜾Ề㸞࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡱࡒࠉኬẴ୯ࡡỀⵠẴࡡᖲᆍ⁣ᅹ᫤㛣㸝ኬẴ୯ࡡᏋᅹ㔖ࢅஹᥦ㏷ᗐ࡚๪ࡖࡒࡵ
ࡡ㸞࠿⣑ 10 ᪝࡛▯࠷࠾ࡼ࡚࠵ࡽࠉỬࡊ࡙ỀⵠẴࡡ㔔さᛮ࠿ぜⴘ࡛ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡒࡴ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ

36

㆗ㄵ 21. ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡢᆀ⌣ᨲᑏࡡ㉝አ⥲ࢅࡆࡿ௧୕ྺ཭ࡊ࡝࠷ࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࡈࡼ࡝ࡾῺᐄຝᯕ
ࢅᣚࡒ࡝࠷㸝ờ⏛ 2006, p.28-29㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳 ᅒ 13 ࡢࠉ㕼├᪁ྡྷࡡኬẴධᒒ࡞┞ᙔࡌࡾ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾ 1 ᅂࡡྺ཭࡞ࡻࡾᨲᑏ㏩㐛⋙ࢅἴ㛏ื࡞ゝ⟤ࡊࡒࡵࡡ࡚ࠉᶋ㍂ࡢἴᩐ㸝ୖ㸰ἴ㛏ࡡ㏣ᩐ㸞ࡱࡒࡢἴ㛏㸝୕㸞ࠉ⦢㍂ࡢ㏩㐛⋙࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡿࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉ☔࠾࡞ἴᩐ 630 ࠾ࡼ 700/cm ௛㎾࡚ࡢྺ཭࠿㣤࿰ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ               ᅒ 13 ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾᨲᑏ㏩㐛⋙                   ฝᡜ㸯Petty㸝2004㸞 ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡆࡡᅒ 13 ࡢ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࡞ࡻࡾ㉝አ⥲ࡡᑏฝࢅࢭ࡛ࣞࡊ࡙ࠉྺ཭ࡡຝᯕࡡࡲࢅ⾪ࡊࡒࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊᐁ㝷ࡡኬẴ࡚ࡢࠉᆀ⾪㟻࠾ࡼᑏฝࡈࡿࡒ㉝አ⥲ࡢኬẴ୯ࡡῺᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪ࡞ࡻࡾ
ྺ཭࣬ᑏฝࢅ⧖ࡽ㏁ࡊ࡙ኬẴ୕❻࡞฽㐡ࡌࡾࠊኬẴ୯ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐ࠿ቌຊࡌࡾ࡛ࠉࡆࡡྺ
཭࣬ᑏฝࡡᖲᆍᅂᩐ࠿ቌຊࡌࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡽࠉῺᐄຝᯕࡢቌຊࡌࡾࠊᚉࡖ࡙ࠉኬẴධᒒ࡞ࡻࡾୌ
ᅂࡡྺ཭࠿㣤࿰ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾ࡼ࡛࠷ࡖ࡙ࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪࠿ࡆࡿ௧୕ቌຊࡊ࡙ࡵῺᐄຝᯕࡢቌຊࡊ࡝
࠷࡛⩻࠻ࡾࡡࡢㄏࡽ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ ࡱࡒࠉᅒ 13 ࡚ἴᩐ 570 ࠾ࡼ 620/cm ௛㎾࡛ 710 ࠾ࡼ 760/cm ௛㎾ࡡ㯦ࡂぜ࠻ࡾ࡛ࡆࢀࡢࠉ㏩㐛⋙࠿ኬࡀ࠷ೋ࡛ᑚࡈ࠷ೋࡡ㛣ࢅ⾔ࡖࡒࡽᮮࡒࡽࡊ࡙࠽ࡽࠉྺ཭⥲ࡡᏋᅹࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊẴమฦᏄࡡྺ཭⥲ࡢࠉᅸງຝᯕ࡛ࢺࢴࣈ࣭ࣚຝᯕ࡛࿣ࡣࡿࡾ 2 ࡗࡡຝᯕ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ἴᩐ᪁ྡྷ࡞ᖕࢅᣚ
ࡖ࡙࠽ࡽࠉ≁࡞ࠉྺ཭⥲ࡡ୯ᚨ࡚ྺ཭࠿㣤࿰ࡊ࡙ࡵࠉࡈࡼ࡞Ẵమ⃨ᗐ࠿ቌ࠻ࡾ࡛ࠉྺ཭⥲ࡡᖕ࠿ᗀ࠿ࡾࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡽྺ཭㔖࠿ቌຊࡌࡾࡆ࡛࠿ฦ࠾ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ᰐ⏛ 1999㸰ఌ⏛ 1982㸰Petty 2004㸞ࠊᚉࡖ࡙ࠉࡆࡿࡼࡡἴ㛏ᖈ࡚ࡢኬẴධᒒࡡ㸦ᅂࡡྺ཭ࡈ࠻ࡵᮅ㣤࿰࡚࠵ࡽࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡቌຊ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ྺ཭㔖࠿ቌຊࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࡈࡼ࡞⮤᪺࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

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4. Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗ࡡඁ඙㡨నࠔῺᬦ໩ၡ㢗ࡻࡽࡵ㔔さ࡝ၡ㢗࠿࠵ࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉ᠔␪Ὤ࠿⏕࠷ࡾᖏዎྀ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ☔࠾࡞ࠉୠࡡ୯࡞ࡢᵕࠍ࡝ၡ㢗⩄࠿࠵ࡽࠉࡐࡿࡼࡡ㛣࡚ࡡඁ඙㡨న௛ࡄࡢᐖ᪾࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊᐁ㝷࡞㡨న௛ࡄࢅ⾔࠹ሔྙࡵࠉ಴ெⓏ࡝౮ೋふ࠿ථࡾࡆ࡛ࡢྫྷࡴ࡝࠷ࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉῺᬦ໩ࡷᆀ⌣⛁Ꮥ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ
ᇱᮇⓏ࡝஥ᐁࡷ௙ࡡၡ㢗࡛ࡡ┞㛭㛭౿࡝࡜ࢅ↋っࡊࡒࡻ࠹࡝㆗ㄵࡢࠉ⤎ᑻࡢࠉῺᬦ໩ᑊ➿ࡡ඙ᘇࡣࡊࢅຐ㛏ࡊࠉ㈈௴㏠ࡿࡡཾᐁ࡛࡝ࡾࠊᮇ⟿࡚ࡢࠉࡆࡿࡼࡡ୹ᘿ࡞ࡗ࠷࡙රమⓏ࡝ཬㄵࢅ⾔ࡖ࡙࠷ࡂࠊ㆗ㄵ 22. ࠔெ㢦♣ఌ࡞࡛ࡖ࡙ᐨ෫໩ࡡ᪁࠿ၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡾࠕ㸝ᵌ⏛ 2006㸞
ࠔ⏍∸࡞࡛ࡖ࡙ࡢ௑ࡡᆀ⌣ࡢ෫ࡒࡂࠉࡵ࠹ᑛࡊᬦ࠾ࡂ࡝ࡖࡒ᪁࠿Ⰳ࠷࡛࠷࠹ධమⓏ࡝ലྡྷ࠿࠵ࡾࠕ㸝Ṃ⏛ 2007, p.153㸞ࠊ䠎ཬㄵ䠐 ᐨ෫໩ࡢࡵࡊ㉫ࡆࡿࡣ☔࠾࡞ெ㢦࡞࡛ࡖ࡙㔔ኬ࡝ၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ௑ᚃ⣑Ⓤᖳࡡ㛣࡞㉫ࡆࡾྊ⬗ᛮࡢῺᬦ໩࡞Ẓ࡬࡙ࡍࡖ࡛఩࠷࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ70 ᖳ௥࡞ゕࢂࡿࡒ㛏᭿ᐨ෫໩ㄕࡢ
୹࡞ࠉ1 ୒ᖳ࠾ࡼ 10 ୒ᖳࡂࡼ࠷ࡡ࿔᭿ᖈࡡ㛣ể᭿࠾ࡼể᭿࡫ࡡ⛛⾔ࡡࡆ࡛ࢅᛍ㢄࡞࠽࠷࡙⾔ࢂࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ㸝ප㌹㌮㐠࡛⮤㌹㍂ࡡን໩ࡡྊ⬗ᛮ࡞㛭ࡌࡾ᭩᩺ࡡ᥆ᏽ࡞ࡻࡾ࡛㸞⣑ 2 ୒ᖳᚃ࡞㉫ࡆࡾ࡛ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾể᭿ࡡ฽ᮮ5࡛ࠉ100 ᖳ௧හࡡῺᬦ໩࡛࡜ࡔࡼࢅ᝷ᏽࡊ࡙ᑑᮮ࡞ങ࠻ࡾ࡬ࡀ࠾
ࡢ᪺ࡼ࠾࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉῺᬦ໩࡞ࡻࡾࢤࢪࢹ࡛࣊ࢾࣆ࢔ࢴࢹࡢࠉུ─⩽࡛⿍ᐐ⩽࠿ࡐࡿࡑࡿㄙ
࡝ࡡ࠾࡛࠷࠹පᖲᛮࡡふⅤ࡝࡜࠾ࡼ༎ฦ࡞᳠ゞࡈࡿࡾ࡬ࡀ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࡝࠽ࠉ⌟ᅹࡡࡻ࠹࡝᛬⃥࡝஦㓗໩⅛⣪⃨ᗐࡡ୕᪴࠿⤾ࡄࡣࠉ⮤↓⌟㇗࡚࠵ࡾể᭿㸢㛣ể᭿ࢦ࢕ࢠࣜ࡞ࡵరࡼ࠾ࡡ≤࠷࠿⏍ࡋࡾ࡛⩻࠻ࡾ᪁࠿⮤↓࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࡝࠽ࠉῺᬦ໩࡞㛭ࡌࡾ⛁ᏕⓏ⌦よࡢ☔࠾࡞㐅ࢆࡓ(⢥ᗐ࠿୕࠿ࡖࡒ)ࡆ࡛ࢅ⌦よࡌࡾ࡞ࡢ Weart㸝2003㸞࠿ཤ⩻࡞࡝ࡾࠊ㆗ㄵ23. ⅛㖌ࡡ㛚ᒜ࠿ጙࡱࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ⅛㖌ࡢ࠷ࡖࡒࢆ㛚ᒜࡊࡒࡼࠉᆔ㐠࠿ࡂࡍࡿ࡙ᅂᚗ࡚ࡀ࡝
࠷㸝ᵌ⏛2006㸞ࠊ䠎ཬㄵ䠐
 ⅛㖌ࡢࠉࢤࢪࢹ❿ணງࡷኬẴỗ᯹㜭Ḿ࡝࡜ࡡᵕࠍ࡝⌦⏜࡚㛚ᒜࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡒࡊ࠾࡞ࠉ㛚ᒜᚃࡡ්㛜ࡢᐖ᪾࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉⴘ┑ࡷ࢝ࢪ⇷Ⓠ஥ᨶ࠿㉫ࡆࡾྊ⬗ᛮࡵ㧏ࡂ࡝ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉᇱᮇⓏ࡞
ࡢᢇ⾙ࡡၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉ්㛜࡞㝷ࡊ࡙Ꮽධ⟮⌦࡝࡜࡞ࢤࢪࢹࢅ࡜ࡿࡓࡄ࠾ࡄࡾ࠾࡛࠷࠹⤊ῥⓏ
࡝ၡ㢗࡚ࡵ࠵ࡾࠊ㛚ᒜᚃ࡞ၡ㢗࡝ࡂ්㛜ࡊࡒᐁౚࡢ࠵ࡽࠉᅂᚗ࡚ࡀ࡝࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡆ࡛ࡢ࡝࠷6ࠊ

5 ౚ࠻ࡣࠉBerger and Loutre㸝2002㸞
ࠊ
6 ⅛㖌஥ᨶࡢࠉ㛚ᒜ࠿㛭౿࠵ࡾሔྙࡵ㛭౿࡝࠷ሔྙࡵ࠵ࡾࠊ☔࠾࡞ࠉୠ⏲୯࡚㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾ⅛㖌஥ᨶ㸝᥆ᏽṒஷ⩽ᖳ㛣 1 ୒ெ௧୕㸞ࡡၡ㢗ࡢ㟸ᖏ࡞῕็࡚࠵ࡽ⬒࠿⑚ࡳၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉࡐࡡᑊ➿࡛ࡊ࡙Ὼᬦ໩
ᑊ➿ࢅḾࡴࡾࡆ࡛࠿᭯ຝ࠾࡜࠹࠾ࡢ␪ၡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

38

㆗ㄵ 24. ᵕࠍ࡝ୠ⏲Ⓩ࡝ၡ㢗ࡡ୯࡚ࠉẴುንິࡡඁ඙㡨నࡢᚪࡍࡊࡵ㧏ࡂࡢ࡝࠷ࠊࢤ࣋ࣤࣀ࣭
ࢣࣤ࣬ࢤࣤࢬࣤࢦࢪ࡚ࡢࠉẴುንິ࠿᭩఩ࡡඁ඙㡨న࡚࠵ࡖࡒ㸝Lomborg 2005㸰Crighton 2007㸞ࠊ㸱ཬㄵ㸳2004 ᖳ 5 ᭮࡞ࢤ࣋ࣤࣀ࣭ࢣࣤ࡞࡙ࢸ࣏࣭ࣤࢠࡡ⤣ゝᏕ⩽࡚࠵ࡾࣄࣙࣜࣤ࣬ࣞࣤ࣍ࣜࢡ࠿୹ᐍ
ࡊࡒఌ㆗࡚ࡡࢤࣤࢬࣤࢦࢪ࠿ࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾࢤ࣋ࣤࣀ࣭ࢣࣤ࣬ࢤࣤࢬࣤࢦࢪ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡆࡡఌ㆗࡚ࡢࠉெ㢦࠿├㟻ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠔ10 ࡡၡ㢗ࠕࢅ᢫ฝࡊࠉࢿ࣭࣊ࣜ⤊ῥᏕ㈳ུ㈳⩽ 4 ྞࢅྱࡳ⤊ῥᏕ⩽ 8 ெ࠿ࠉ⥪㢘 500 ൦ࢺࣜࢅࡆࡡ 10 ௲ࡡၡ㢗࡞㒼ฦࡌࡾࡒࡴࡡඁ඙㡨న࡛㔘㢘ࢅỬࡴࡒࠊඁ඙㡨నࡡ㧏࠾ࡖࡒࡡࡢࠉHIV ၡ㢗ࠉ㣒㣱ၡ㢗ࠉ㈘᪾⮤⏜໩ࠉ࣏ࣚࣛ࢓ᑊ➿ࡡ㡨࡚࠵ࡽࠉῺᬦ໩ၡ㢗ࡢ᭩ୖన࡚㒼ฦ㢘ࡢࢭ࡚ࣞ࠵ࡖࡒࠊࡆࡡ⤎ᯕࡢῺᬦ໩࡞㛭ࡌࡾ᠔␪ㄵ⩽ࢅኬ࠷࡞ඔẴࡘࡄࠉࢤ࣋
ࣤࣀ࣭ࢣࣤ࣬ࢤࣤࢬࣤࢦࢪࡢᙴࡼ࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࡊࡣࡊࡣᘤ⏕ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ
ࡆࡡࢤ࣋ࣤࣀ࣭ࢣࣤ࣬ࢤࣤࢬࣤࢦࢪ࡞ࡢࠉ୹࡞ 1㸞㈕⏕౼─ฦᯊࡡၡ㢗ࠉ2㸞ၡ㢗ࡡ㐽ࡦ᪁ࠉ
ࡡ 2 ࡗࡡၡ㢗࠿࠵ࡾ㸝ெ㐽ࡡၡ㢗ࡷ㌱஥㈕࡝࡜࡛Ẓ㍉ࡊ࡙㔘㢘࠿ᑚࡈ࠷࡛࠷࠹ၡ㢗ࡵ࠵ࡾ࠿ࡆ
ࡆ࡚ࡢ┤␆ࡌࡾ㸞ࠊ➠ 1 ࡡ㈕⏕౼─ฦᯊࡡၡ㢗ࡢࠉ๪ᘤ⋙ࡷ㈄ᖨ౮ೋ໩ࡡၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡾ࡛ྜྷ᫤࡞ࠉ
ཋᅄࡵᙫ㡢ࡵ┞㛭㛭౿ࡵ々㞟࡝ၡ㢗⩄࡞ᑊࡊ࡙㈕⏕౼─ฦᯊࢅ⾔࠹ࡆ࡛࡞ᯕࡒࡊ࡙ណ࿝࠿࠵
ࡾࡡࡓࢀ࠹࠾࡛࠷࠹᰷ᮇⓏ࡝ၡ㢗࡚ࡵ࠵ࡾ㸝⎌ሾၡ㢗࡝࡜࡞ᑊࡊ࡙㈕⏕౼─ฦᯊࢅ⾔࠹ࡆ࡛ࡡၡ㢗Ⅴ࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࡢࠉౚ࠻ࡣ Ackerman and Heinzerling 2005 ࢅཤ↯ࡎࡻ㸞ࠊ➠ 2 ࡡၡ㢗ࡓ࠿ࠉ㈃ᅏၡ㢗ࡷ AIDS ࡛Ẵುንິၡ㢗ࢅ୩࡬࡙ࠉᐁ㈻Ⓩ࡞࡜ࡔࡼ࠾ୌࡗࡓࡄࢅ㐽࡬࡛ၡࢂࡿࡿࡣࠉ㸝3⛂㛣࡞ୌெ࠿ᰜ㣬୘㊂࡚Ṓࢆ࡚࠷ࡾ࡛࠷࠹⌟≟ࢅኣᑛ࡝ࡽ࡛ࡵ▩ࡖ࡙࠷ࡿࡣ㸞㈃ᅏၡ㢗ࢅ㐽ࡩெࡡ᪁࠿ኣࡂ࡝ࡾࡡࡢ⌦よ࡚ࡀࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉౚ࠻ࡣࠉ㈃ᅏ࡛Ẵುንິࡢࠉ᫤㛣Ⓩࢪࢢ࣭ࣜࡷ୘ྊ㏣ᛮ࠿ධࡂ␏࡝ࡾၡ㢗࡚࠵ࡽࠉ࠾ࡗ࠽ப࠷࡞ᤴ㝎ࡌࡾ㸝㔔࡝ࡽ࠿࡝࠷㸞ၡ㢗࡚ࡵ࡝࠷ࠊ㏣࡞ࠉኣࡂࡡሔྙࠉẴುንິᑊ➿ࢅᐁ᪃ࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࠉኬẴỗ᯹ᑊ➿ࡷ㈃ᅏよᾐ࡞ኬࡀࡂ㈁⊡ࡌࡾ㸝ౚ㸯▴⅛ࡷິ∸ࡡᤴἝ∸ࢅ⇖ᩩ࡛ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ↋㞹໩ᆀᇡࡡ්⏍ྊ⬗࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟࡞ࡻࡾ㞹໩ࠊኣࡂࡡ⤊ῥᏕ⩽ࡷ SF షᐓࡢࠉࡆࡡ┞ப㛭౿࡞㛭ࡌࡾ▩ㆉ࠿இࡊ࠷ࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾ㸞ࠊ
ࠔ㈃ᅏၡ㢗࠾Ẵುንິ࠾ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ࡻ࠹࡝ၡ㢗スᏽࡢࠉゕ࠷ᥦ࠻ࡿࡣࠔெ㛣࡞࡛ࡖ࡙Ề࡛㣏࡬∸ࡢ࡜ࡔࡼ࠿ኬ஥࠾ࠕ࡛࠷࠹↋ណ࿝࡝ၡ࠷࡞జ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊゕ࠹ࡱ࡚ࡵ࡝ࡂࠉኣࡂ
ࡡ㣏࡬∸ࡢỀฦࢅྱࢆ࡚࠽ࡽࠉ➽࠻ࡢࠔ୦᪁࡛ࡵ㟸ᖏ࡞ኬ஥ࠕ࡚ࡊ࠾࠵ࡽ࠻࡝࠷ࠊࡐࡊ࡙ࠉᐁ
㝷࡞⚶ࡒࡔ࠿࡛ࡾ⾔ິࡢࠉ㸝⮤ฦࡒࡔࡡ㐗⮾㈕࡝࡜ࢅวࡽࡗࡴࡾ࡝࡜ࡊ࡙㸞࡝ࢆ࡛࠾୦᪁ࡡࡒ
ࡴ࡞࠽㔘ࢅ⏕ណࡌࡾ࡛࠷࠹ࡵࡡࡓ࡛ᛦ࠹ࠊ
ࠔ㈃ᅏၡ㢗ࡡ᪁࠿ኬ஥ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ㄵἪࡢࠉ㏭୕ᅗࡡ㈃ᅏၡ㢗ࡷⅇᐐᨾຐὩິ࡝࡜ࡡ႖⥥ࡡၡ㢗ࢅᣚࡔฝࡌࡆ࡛࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉ࠵ࡼࡹࡾࡵࡡࡡ㔔さᛮࢅ㈐ࡴࡾࡆ࡛࠿ྊ⬗࡝ㄵἪ࡚࠵ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ
ࡒ࡛࠻ࡣࠉࣞࣤ࣍ࣜࢡࡡ୹ᘿࢅᨥᣚࡌࡾ⡷ᅗࡡಕᏬⓏࢨࣤࢠࢰࣤࢠࡡኣࡂࡢࠉ㏭୕ᅗ࡞ᑊࡌࡾ
ᾇአᥴຐࡡᚪさᛮࢅ✒ᴗⓏ࡞ࡢᨥᣚࡊ࡙࠷࡝࠷ࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉᘋスⓏ࡝㆗ㄵ࡛࠷࠹ࡻࡽࡵࠉẴುንິၡ㢗ࡡ㔔さᛮࢅྫྷᏽࡌࡾࡒࡴࡡࠔ᪁౼ࠕ࡛ࡊ࡙ࠉ㏭୕ᅗࡡ㈃ᅏၡ㢗࠿ୌ᫤Ⓩ࡞ฺ⏕ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ
8 ெࡡࠔ㈶⩽ࠕࡢධ࡙⤊ῥᏕ⩽࡚࠵ࡽࠉఌ㆗ࡡධమാࢅࡱ࡛ࡴࡒᮇ͆Global Crises, Global

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Solutions㸝Lomborg 2005㸞” ࡡ᭩ᚃ࡞࠵ࡾ 8 ெࡡẴುንິ࡞㛭ࡌࡾࢤ࣒ࣤࢹ࡝࡜ࢅぜࡾ࡛ࠉ㈕⏕౼─ฦᯊனࠍ௧๑࡞ࠉῺᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡞ᑊࡌࡾ▩ぜࢅᣚࡖ࡙࠷ࡾ࠾࡜࠹࠾␪ၡ࡚࠵ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ
ࠔ㸝෫༴ຝᯕࢅᣚࡗ㸞࢙࣭ࣞࢯࣜࢅ✭୯࡞ᩋᕱࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ᳠ゞࡌ࡬ࡀࠊࡐࡵࡐࡵᠻࠍࡻࡽࡵࣛ
ࢴࢲ࡚࠵ࡾᑑᮮୠ௥ࡡࡒࡴ࡞⚶ࡒࡔ࠿㈕⏕ࢅᡮ࠹ࡡࡢࢻࣤࢬࣤࢪࡓࠕ㸝ཤຊ⩽ࡡୌெ࡚࠵ࡾ
Thomas Schelling ࡞ࡻࡾࢤ࣒ࣤࢹ㸯Lomborg 2005, p.627㸞ࡷࠔ100 ᖳᚃࡡெ㛣ࡢࠉ⌟ᅹࡡெ㛣ࡻ
ࡽࡵ㈶࠷࠾ࡼᑊ➿ࢅ㐔ࡼࡎ࡙ࡵၡ㢗࡝࠷ࠕ㸝ྜྷࡋࡂཤຊ⩽ࡡୌெ࡚࠵ࡾ Vernon Smith ࡞ࡻࡾࢤ࣒ࣤࢹ㸯 Lomborg 2005, p.635㸞࡛࠷ࡖࡒࠉࢦ࢕࢙ࣤࢪࡡ㟻࠾ࡼࡵ೒⌦Ⓩ࡝㟻࠾ࡼࡵ␪⩇࠿࠵ࡾࢤ࣒ࣤࢹ࠿࡝ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ
࠷ࡍࡿ࡞ࡊࢀࠉẴುንິ࠿᭩ୖన࡞࡝ࡖࡒ࠾ࡼ࡛࠷ࡖ࡙ࠔరࡵࡊ࡝ࡂ࡙ࡵࡻ࠷ࠕ࡛よ㔐ࡌࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࠉࡒࡓࡡၡ㢗඙ᘇࡣࡊ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ᠔␪Ὤࡡ⾙୯࡞ࡢࡱࡾࡆ࡛࡞௙࡝ࡼ࡝࠷ࠊ ࡔ࡝ࡲ࡞ࠉ2005 ᖳ 1 ᭮ࢪ࢕ࢪ࡚ࡡࢱ࣍ࢪఌ㆗ཤຊ⩽ࡡୠ⏲㔔さၡ㢗ඁ඙㡨న௛ࡄᢖ⚂㸝14ࡡၡ㢗࠾ࡼࢹࢴࣈ 6 ࢅ㐽ࡩ࡛࠷࠹ࡵࡡ㸞ࡡ⤎ᯕࡢࠉ୕࠾ࡼ㡨࡞㈃ᅏよᾐࠉපᖲ࡝ࢡ࣭ࣞࣁࣛࢭ
࣭ࢨࣘࣤࠉẴುንິࠉᩅ⫩ࠉ୯᮶ࠉࢡࣞࣁ࣭ࣜ࢝ࣁࢻࣤࢪ࡚࠵ࡖࡒࠊࡱࡒࠉ2007 ᖳ 1 ᭮ࡡࢱ࣍ࢪఌ㆗࡚ࡡཤຊ⩽ᢖ⚂࡚ࡢࠉẴುንິၡ㢗ࡢࠔୠ⏲࡞୙࠻ࡾᙫ㡢࠿ኬࡀ࠷ࠕ࡛ࡡᅂ➽࠿ 38㸚ࠉࠔᅗ㝷♣ఌࡡᑊᚺ࠿୘༎ฦࠕ࡛ࡡ➽࠻࠿ 55㸚࡚ࠉ௙ࡡ 10 㡧┘ࢅᢒ࠻࡙᭩ࡵኣ࠾ࡖࡒࠊ

㆗ㄵ 25. ࠔ㛏᭿Ⓩ࡞ࡢ㐲ᙔ࡝๎΅᪁ᘟࠉ▯᭿࣬୯᭿Ⓩ࡞ࡢ㐲ᚺ᪁ᘟࠉ࡛࠷࠹ࡡ࠿⌟ᐁⓏࠕ㸝௿
⸠ 2006, p.42㸞㸱ཬㄵ㸳ࡱࡍ௿⸠㸝2006㸞࡚ࡢࠉࠔ▯᭿ࠕࠔ୯᭿ࠕࠔ㛏᭿ࠕࠔ♣ఌࡡᣚ⤾ᛮࠕࠔ⌟ᐁⓏࠕࠔᆀᇡⓏࠕࠔᑻᡜ
Ⓩࠕ
ࠔኣᵕᛮࠕ
ࠔ࣏ࢠࣞࠕ
ࠔ࣐ࢠࣞࠕ
ࠔ㐲ᙔࠕ࡝࡜ࡡ᭍ᫍ࡝ゕⴝ࠿༎ฦ࡝ㄕ᪺ࡡ࡝࠷ࡱࡱ࡞ኣ⏕ࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉㄵ⌦Ⓩ࡝㆗ㄵࡷཬッ࠿ᅏ㞬࡝ᩝ❮࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ▯᭿ࡷ୯᭿࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉ
రᖳ⛤ᗐࢅ᝷ᏽࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࠾ࠊ
ࠔ♣ఌࡡᣚ⤾ᛮࠕ࡛ࡢర࡝ࡡ࠾ࠊ
ࠔ⌟ᐁⓏࠕ࡛࠷࠹ᴣᛍࡢ୹ふⓏ࡝ࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࡓࡿࡵ࠿⮤ฦࡡ୹ᘿࡢࠔ⌟ᐁⓏࠕ࡛⩻࠻࡙࠷ࡾࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࡓࢀ࠹࠾ࠊ
ࡱࡒࠉ௿⸠㸝2006㸞࠿ゕ࠹ࠔ㛏᭿Ⓩ࡞ࡢ㐲ᙔ࡝๎΅᪁ᘟࠉ▯᭿࣬୯᭿Ⓩ࡞ࡢ㐲ᚺ᪁ᘟࠉ࡛࠷
࠹ࡡ࠿⌟ᐁⓏࠕ㸝p.42 ୕࠾ࡼ 20 ⾔┘㸞ࡢࠉᜅࡼࡂࠔ⌟᫤Ⅴ࡚ࡢࠉᑻᡜⓏ࡝㐲ᚺ➿ࢅ⾔࠹࡬ࡀ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙Ὼᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪࡡᤴฝ๎΅ࡡࡻ࠹࡝⥾࿰➿ࡢ୘さ࡚࠵ࡾࠕ࡛よ㔐ࡊ࠹ࡾࠊࡊ࠾ࡊࠉ㐲ᚺ➿
ࡢࠉ࠷ࢂࡹࡾᑊ⑍⒢Ἢ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ⥾࿰➿ࡢࠉཋᅄ∸㈻ࢅཱིࡽ㝎ࡂ᰷ᮇⓏ࡝἖⒢࡚࠵ࡾࠊ୦⩽ࡢᛮ㈻࠿ධࡂ␏࡝ࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ஦⩽ᢝୌ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࡊࠉ࡜ࡔࡼ࠾ୌࡗࡓࡄ࡚ࡻ࠷࡛࠷࠹ࡵࡡ࡚ࡵ࡝
࠷ࠊࡱࡒࠉᑊ⑍⒢Ἢ࠿ඁ඙ࡈࡿࡾࡡࡢࠉ1㸞ཋᅄ࠿୘᪺ࠉ2㸞᰷ᮇⓏ࡝἖⒢ࡡᐁ᪃࠿ᢇ⾙Ⓩ࠵ࡾ
࠷ࡢ⤊ῥⓏ࡞୘ྊ⬗ࠉࡡ஦ࡗࡡሔྙ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ⌟ᅹࠉ୘☔ᐁᛮࡢ࠵ࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉῺᬦ໩ࡡཋᅄ࡛ࡊ
࡙ࡡ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡ㔔さᛮࡢྫྷᏽࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡼࡍࠉࡐࡡ๎΅ࡵ୘ྊ⬗࡛ࡢゕ࠷㞬࠷ࠊ㏣࡞ࠉࠔ๎΅ࢅ㐔ࡼࡎࡣ㐔ࡼࡎࡾ࡮࡜ࠉ♣ఌᵋ㏸ࡡ᛬⃥࡝ን໩ࢅఔࢂࡉࡾࢅᚋ࡝࠷ࡻ࠹࡝ኬᖕ࡝๎΅࠿ᚪさ࡛࡝ࡽࠉ⤊ῥⓏ࡞ࡵࡻࡽኣ㢘ࡡࢤࢪࢹ࠿ᚪさࠕࠔῺᬦ໩࡞ࡻࡾ⿍ᐐ㔘㢘࠿Ὼᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪᤴฝ๎
΅ࢤࢪࢹࢅኬᖕ࡞୕ᅂࡾࡒࡴ᪡᭿ࡡ๎΅➿ࡡᐁ᪃࠿⤊ῥྙ⌦Ⓩࠕ࡛࠷࠹⤎ㄵࢅ♟ࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ◂✪

40

ࡵ࠵ࡾࠊ
ࡈࡼ࡞ࠉ௿⸠㸝2006㸞ࡢࠉᆀᇡⓏ࣬ᑻᡜⓏ࡝㐲ᚺᨳ➿࡞ࡗ࠷࡙ࠔࢤࢪࢹⓏ࡞ฺ᭯ࠕ㸝p.42 ᕞṹୖ࠾ࡼ 19 ⾔┘㸞࡛᭡࠷࡙࠷ࡾࠊᑊ⑍⒢Ἢ᰷࡛ᮇⓏ࡝἖⒢ࡡࢤࢪࢹࢅ༟⣟࡞Ẓ㍉ࡌࡾࡡࡢ↋ណ࿝࡚࠵ࡽࠉ࠾ࡗᑊ⑍⒢ἪࡡࢤࢪࢹࡵỬࡊ࡙ᑚࡈ࠷ࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉ㐲ᚺ➿࡛ࡊ࡙⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾላ㜭ᘋス࡚࠵ࡾ࠿ࠉ᪝ᮇࡡᾇᓃᆀᇡ࡞ላ㜭ࢅషࡾ㈕⏕ࡢ⣑ 11 ඗ළ࡛ぜ✒ࡵࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾ
㸝ᾇ㟻୕᪴࠿ 90 ࢬࣤࢲ࣒࣭ࢹࣜࡡሔྙ㸞ࠊࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡝ࢤࢪࢹ࠿ᑚࡈ࠷࠾ኬࡀ࠷࠾ࡢ⮤᪺࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ௿⸠㸝2006㸞ࡢࠉࠔᑻᡜⓏ࡝♣ఌ࣬⏍ឺ⣌ࡢ々㞟⣌ࠕ㸝p.41 ྎṹୖ࠾ࡼ 5 ⾔┘㸞࡛ࡵ᭡࠷࡙
࠷ࡾࠊࡵࡊࠉࡆࡆ࡚⏕࠷ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠔ々㞟⣌ࠕ࡛࠷࠹ゕⴝ࠿ࠔ୘☔ᐁᛮࠕࡵྜྷ᫤࡞ណ࿝ࡌࡾࡵ
ࡡ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉຝᯕⓏ࡞ᑊ⑍⒢ἪⓏ࡝ᑊᚺࢅㅦࡋࡾࡡࡢᐖ᪾࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉࢤࢪࢹࡡḿ☔࡝ゝ⟤ࡵᅏ㞬࡝ࡢࡍ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ
ࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉࠔ⌟᫤Ⅴ࡚ࡢࠉᑻᡜⓏ࡝㐲ᚺ➿ࢅ⾔࠹࡬ࡀ࡚࠵ࡖ࡙Ὼᐄຝᯕ࢝ࢪࡡᤴฝ๎΅ࡡࡻ࠹࡝⥾࿰➿ࡢ୘さ࡚࠵ࡾࠕ࡛࠷࠹ࡡࡢࠉ⌟≟࠾ࡼㄵ⌦Ⓩ࡞ᑙ࠾ࡿࡾࡵࡡ࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉ౮ೋึ᩷
࠿ථࡖࡒ㟸ㄵ⌦Ⓩ࡝ࢪࢷ࣭ࢹ࣒ࣤࢹ࡚࠵ࡾࡻ࠹࡞ᛦࢂࡿࡾࠊ⥾࿰➿ࢅ᪡᛬࡞⾔ࢂ࡝࠷ࡆ࡛ࡢᑊ
➿ࡡ༟⣟࡝඙㏞ࡽ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ⏐ἔᅗࡷ໩▴⇖ᩩᴏ⏲ࠉࡐࡊ࡙Ὼᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡞࠽ࡄࡾຊᐐ⩽࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿࡾୌெ࠵ࡒࡽࡡᤴฝ㔖࠿ኣ࠷ெࠍ࡝࡜ࡡ≁ᏽࡡெࠍࢅฺࡌࡾࡓࡄ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ

㆗ㄵ 26.ࠔῺᬦ໩ၡ㢗࡛࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ၡ㢗࡛ࡡࢸ࢜ࢴࣈࣛࣤࢡ࠿ᚪさࠕ㸝௿⸠ 2006, p.41㸞

㸱ཬㄵ㸳ゕ࠹ࡱ࡚ࡵ࡝ࡂࠉ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ࡡᤴฝ๎΅ᑊ➿ࡡኣࡂࡢࠉ┤࢙ࢾࡷ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟ኣᵕ໩ࢅಀࡌࡵ
ࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟Ꮽධಕ㝸ࡡᙁ໩࡞ࡗ࡝࠿ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉ㏣ࡵࡱࡒ↓ࡽ࡚࠵ࡾࠊ࠽ப࠷ḿࡡ┞㛭㛭౿࠿࠵ࡖ࡙ࠉ࠾ࡗࠉ୦⩽࡛ࡵ᥆㐅ࡌࡾࡡ࠿㔔さ࡛⩻࠻ࡾࡡ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉ๧ḗⓏຝᯕ࡛ࡊ࡙࠽
ப࠷ࡡ㛭౿ᛮࢅ㔔っࡊ࡙ࠉ࢜ࢴࣈࣛࣤࢡࢅ⩻៎ࡌࡾࡡࡢᙔ↓࡛࠷࠻ࡾࠊࢸ࢜ࢴࣈࣛࣤࢡ࠿ᚪさ࡛࠷࠹ࡡ࡚࠵ࡿࡣࠉ࡜ࡔࡼ࠾ࢅ㔔さ࡛⩻࠻࡙࠷࡝࠷ࡆ࡛࡞࡝ࡾ࠿ࠉ௿⸠㸝2006㸞࡚ࡢ᪺♟Ⓩ࡞
᭡࠾ࡿ࡙ࡢ࠷࡝࠷ࠊ࠷ࡍࡿ࡞ࡊࢀࠉ౮ೋึ᩷࠿㛭ࢂࡾࡵࡡ࡚࠵ࡽࠉࢸ࢜ࢴࣈࣛࣤࢡࡡᚪさᛮࡢ⮤᪺ࡡࡆ࡛࡚ࡢධࡂ࡝࠷ࠊ
㸝ᢰᙔᇮ➱⩽㸯᪺᪝㤮ኑᕖ㸞

41

᭩ᚃ࡞
 ⏐ᴏ㠁࿤௧㜾 1Υ௧୕ࡡẴῺ୕࡚᪴⌀⍒♃ࡢⓉ໩࠿ጙࡱࡾ࡛ࡈࡿ࡙࠽ࡽࠉࡌ࡚࡞Ⓣ໩⌟㇗ࡡୠ⏲Ⓩ࡝ኣⓆ࠿ሒ࿈ࡈࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊౚ࠻ࡣࠉࡇࡂ᭩㎾Ⓠ⾪ࡈࡿࡒࢬ࢕ࢨ࢘ࣜㅎᓞ࡚ࡡࣆ࢔࣭ࣜࢺ
ㄢᰕ㸝21 ࣧᡜࠉ5 ୒ᖲ᪁࣒࣭ࢹࣜ㸞࡞ࡻࡾ࡛ࠉ1998 ᖳࡡ࢙ࣜࢼ࣭ࢼࣘ࡞ࡻࡾῺᗐ୕᪴࡞ࡻࡖ࡙ࠉ
ࡌ࡚࡞⌀⍒♃ࡡ 90㸚࠿Ⓣ໩ࡊ࡙㨮㢦ࡵ⃥΅ࡊ࡙࠷ࡒࠊ々ྙⓏ࡝ཋᅄ࠾ࡼெⅥⓏ࡝Ẵುን໩ࡡᐞ
୙ฦࢅวࡽฝࡌࡆ࡛ࡢᅏ㞬࡚࠵ࡾ࠿ࠉࡆࡡ⿍ᐐ࡞ࡵ 20 ୠ⣎ᚃ༖࡞⏍ࡋࡒῺᬦ໩ലྡྷ࠿㛭ࢂࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࡵࡡ࡛⩻࠻ࡼࡿ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡱࡒࠉ2005 ᖳ 12 ᭮࡞ࡢࠉิࡴ࡙ᅗ㏻࠿පᘟ࡞⛛Ằࢅᥴຐࡊࡒ
㧏₳㞬Ằ 100 ெ࠿ࣁࢽ࢓ࢵභ࿰ᅗ࡚Ⓠ⏍ࡊࡒࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉῺᬦ໩ࡡ⿍ᐐࡢࡌ࡚࡞⌟ᐁࡡࡵࡡ࡛
࡝ࡖ࡙࠷ࡒࡽࠉ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ㎾࠷ᑑᮮ࡞㉫ࡆࡾࡆ࡛࠿஢᝷ࡈࡿࡾࡵࡡ࡛࡝ࡖ࡙࠽ࡽࠉỬࡊ࡙ 50 ᖳᚃࡷ 100 ᖳᚃࡡࡻ࠹࡝㐪࠷ᑑᮮࡡࡆ࡛࡚ࡢ࡝࠷ࠊ ୌ᪁ࠉ2006 ᖳ 3 ᭮ 29 ᪝ࡡ࣌࣠࢕ࢹࣀࢗࢪ࡚ࡡオ⩽ఌぜ࡞࡙ࣇࢴࢨࣖ⡷ኬ⤣㡷ࡢࠉῺᬦ໩࠿
㉫ࡀ࡙࠷ࡾࡆ࡛ࡢヾࡴࡾࡵࡡࡡࠉெⅥⓏ஦㓗໩⅛⣪ᤴฝ࠿ཋᅄ࡚࠵ࡾࡆ࡛ࢅ␪࠹ࡻ࠹࡝Ⓠゕࢅࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡌ࡝ࢂࡔࠉ᠔␪ㄵ⩽࡛ྜྷࡋࡆ࡛ࢅපᘟࡡሔ࡚Ⓠゕࡊ࡙࠷ࡾࠊࡐࡡࣇࢴࢨࣖኬ⤣㡷࡞㛭ࡊ࡙ࠉᙴ࡞ᐁ㈻Ⓩ࡞よ௴ࡈࡿࡒ࣭࢛࣎ࣜ࣬ࢼ࣭ࣜඔ㈀ຸ㛏ᏻ㸝ୠ⏲᭩ኬࡡ࢓࣐ࣜ⢥㘈ఌ♣࢓ࣜࢤ࢓ࡡ CEO ࢅ 13 ᖳ㛣ຸࡴࡒ㸞ࡢࠔ⡷ᅗ࠿ா㒌㆗ᏽ᭡࠾ࡼ㞫⬲ࡊࡒ⌦⏜ࡢࠉῺᬦ໩ᑊ➿࠿▴
⅛࣬▴ἔᴏ⏲࡝࡜ࡡࣇࢴࢨࣖᨳᶊࡡᨥᣚᇱ┑ࡡฺ─࡞⫴ࡂ࡛ኬ⤣㡷࠽ࡻࡦࢲ࢘࢕ࢼ࣭๧ኬ⤣㡷࠿ึ᩷ࡊࡒࡒࡴࠕ࡛࠷࠹㉻᪠ࡡⓆゕࢅࡊ࡙࠷ࡾ㸝ࢦࢪ࢞ࣤࢺ 2004, p.160㸞ࠊ ࡆࡡࡻ࠹࡞ࠉῺᬦ໩ᑊ➿ࢅ㐔ࡼࡌఴ⿩ࢅெ㢦ࡢᣚࡒ࡝࠷ࡢࡍ࡝ࡡ࡞ࠉࢺࣞࢺ࡛ࣞࡊࡒᨳ἖ࡷ
ฺ─㞗ᅆࠉࡐࡊ࡙ᙴࡼ࡞ណㆉⓏࠉ࠵ࡾ࠷ࡢ↋ណㆉⓏ࡞᧧ࡼࡿࡒ᠔␪ㄵ⩽࠿㊂ࢅᘤࡖᘿࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠊ
ࡊ࠾ࡊࠉῺᬦ໩ᑊ➿ࢅ㐅ࡴࡾࡆ࡛ࡢࠉῺᬦ໩㜭Ḿࡡࡒࡴࡓࡄ࡚ࡢ࡝ࡂࠉ㈠″ࡡ᭯ຝฺ⏕ࡷ࢙ࢾ࣭ࣜ࢟Ꮽධಕ㝸࡛࠷࠹ഁ㟻࡚ࡵ㟸ᖏ࡞㔔さ࡝ណ࿝ࢅᣚࡗࠊࡊࡒ࠿ࡖ࡙ࠉ⮤ᕤฺ─ࡓࡄࡡࡒࡴ࡞
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ࠖCO2 Ὼᬦ໩ㄕࡢ㛣㐢ࡖ࡙࠷ࡾࠗ࡮ࡒࡾฝ∟.
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ᵌ⏛ᩌ㸝2004㸞
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