Briefing document

The UK’s transition toelectric vehicles
A report by Terri Wills for the Climate Change Committee.
Terri Wills is an independent climate change consultant who worked with the CCC throughout 2020 to identify
opportunities for business to deliver the UK’s Net Zero objectives.

1. The 2030 electric vehicle transition
The full transition to electric vehicles (EVs) will be one of the most important actions
to achieve the UK’s Net Zero target. By 2032 at the latest, the Climate Change
Committee (CCC) has called for all new light-duty vehicles sold, including
passenger vehicles, taxis, vans, motorbikes and mopeds, to be fully battery-electricvehicles. To reach Net Zero, all vehicles – including heavy-goods vehicles (HGVs) –must be fossil fuel free by 2050. For passenger vehicles and vans, this will mean
accelerating the uptake of EVs from around 400,000 today (including batteryelectric and plug-in hybrid models; 1% of all UK vehicles) to 23.2 million by 2032
(55% of all vehicles), and by 2050 possibly up to 49.0 million (100%). 1 To achieve this,
UK Government and industry must implement a range of policy and market
mechanisms needed particularly for passenger vehicles and vans, while also
addressing wider transportation emissions through reduced vehicle usage as well
as moving towards electric, hydrogen or ‘cabling’ of heavy-duty vehicles. While
the steps needed to reduce wider transportation emissions are complex, thepathway to a full transition to electric passenger vehicles is clear and relatively
straightforward.

a) Emissions from transport must fall
Transport is now the highest emitting sector of the UK economy, accounting for
22% of total GHG emissions, 113 MtCO2e in 2019. Cars comprise 13% of the UK’s
GHG emissions, vans 4% and HGVs 4%.1 Urgent action is required to drive downtransport emissions, as they have remained largely flat since 1990. Althoughvehicles have become more fuel-efficient, this has been offset by increasing travel
demand. 2 Emissions from transport – and from passenger vehicles – will need to be
cut by over 70% to meet the Sixth Carbon Budget3, which sets a limit on UK
emissions in the mid-2030s in order to stay on track to meeting Net Zero by 2050.

b) Current barriers to a 2030 transition
Despite the recent Government announcement to phase out sales of new petroland diesel vehicles by 2030, the UK is currently not on track to switch all new
vehicles to fully battery-electric by 2030. Beyond 2030, significant questions remainthat need to be addressed – such as the increased demand for electricity andwhere this will come from, sourcing and supply of rare earth materials for battery
production and capacity for battery recycling. Policies and strategies are needed
to overcome these challenges longer-term, but short-term, several key barriersmust be overcome in order to reach the 2030 transition date:•

Lack of an overarching strategy and targets for sufficient charging
infrastructure, particularly on-street. Currently, there are approximately
18,0004 public charging points for around 400,000 plug-in electric vans andpassenger vehicles. In order to grow the UK’s EV fleet to 23.2 million EVs by2032, the CCC estimates 325,000 public charging points will be needed.1
While the UK Government has set targets to double rapid charging by 2024 5
and ensure access to 2,500 high powered charging points across England’sinter-urban routes6, no targets have been set for on-street or at-homecharging. Currently, 80% of EV users charge their vehicles at homeovernight7, while 34% of households do not have off-street parking andneed to charge on-street or elsewhere. 8 Charge point grant programmes
have been rolled out, but there is an absence of an overarching strategy tocoordinate and support Local Authorities to ensure that the required

The UK’s transition to electric vehicles

2

number of charge points by region is available in time. Currently, over 167
Local Authorities have 20 or fewer charging points. 9•

Restricted network capacity and cost of upgrades. Across the UK, there areconstraints on the capacity and reliability of the Transmission Network
Operators (TNOs) and Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) to enablesufficient EV charging infrastructure. Companies seeking to install charging
points for their fleets, staff and customers at forecourts as well as Local
Authorities can be faced with significant costs (e.g. some have beenquoted costs of millions of pounds to pay for the necessary reinforcement
upgrades), which can prove an impediment to proceeding with charging
infrastructure. Furthermore, a company requesting capacity from DNOs
must solely fund the cost of reinforcement upgrades even when others will
later use the capacity, which can deter a company from being the first to
request the upgrades. 10•

Limited supply of electric vans. While supply and availability of passenger
vehicles have improved in the last few years and are expected to continue
to improve dramatically in future – from 20 models of EV in 2019 to
Volkswagen alone planning over 70 new models by 2030 11 – few electric
van models are available. Six models of electric van are currently available
in the UK, and a further fourteen are expected in the next few years 12, but
supply of these vehicles is expected to be limited with long order wait times.
Some fleet owners have indicated that they believe the incentives
available in the UK are not currently sufficient to encourage enoughvehicle manufacturers to retool their operations for electric vans andcreate sufficient supply.

c) Enabling policy: what needs to happen?
The UK Government has put in place a number of positive measures, programmes
and regulations to support the transition to EVs – including innovation in smart
energy technologies13, funding schemes for public rapid, on-street, home andworkplace charging as well as additional incentives for EV uptake. However, morework is needed to ensure that the framework is in place to drive the required
market transformation towards a full EV transition by 2030:•

3

Align incentives and mandates to targets and monitor impact. Establishingand communicating long-term clarity on the availability and approximate
timing of incentives and targets – ideally to 2030 – will enable industry toplan fleet strategies and Local Authorities to plan for charge point roll-out.
Linking incentives to targets will also ensure that funding is focussed on thenecessary preconditions for petrol and diesel vehicle phase-out, and willallow funding to shift to the next priority once particular targets are met. For
example, grants for passenger vehicle purchase could be gradually
withdrawn once EVs reach price parity with conventional petrol and diesel
vehicles and then redirected to vans. Communicating such an approachin advance could stimulate increased production, and ideally reduce thelength of time grants are needed as supply increases. Agreeing andcommunicating a replacement for the EU Emissions Trading Scheme will
also be critical to ensure that the right level of disincentives for thepurchase of petrol and diesel vehicles exists.14 Transition to fiscal
instruments, such as vehicle excise duty (VED), VAT and fuel duty, should
also be explored and can be considered as part of the fiscal changes
needed to aid the COVID-19 recovery.15 Furthermore, tracking the overall
supply of vehicles and relative share of sales that are zero-carbon should
also inform timing and scaling of additional Government mandates,including a Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandate which would require increasing
shares of sales to be zero-carbon, reaching 100% by 2032 at the latest.16,17•

Devise a comprehensive charging strategy, including for on-street
charging. Sufficient access to charging infrastructure is essential to enable
a full EV transition. Owners and drivers of corporate fleets, taxis, sharedvehicles and private vehicles must all have confidence that they canaccess charging infrastructure in the locations that fit with their needs –including the 34% of households without off-street parking. A strategy with
input from corporate fleets and residents must be developed to ensure thatthe challenges facing Local Authorities in rolling-out infrastructure –including lack of staff capacity, lack of forecasting capability to assess
where and how many charging-points will be needed, how to cover
maintenance costs and how to ensure fair and equitable use of parking –can be addressed and overcome. As part of this strategy, there also needs
to be greater citizen awareness and better understanding of how to get acharge point installed when off-street parking is not available. While thefocus on rapid charging along inter-urban routes and rapid charging hubs
is commendable, comprehensive on-street charging is a necessary
precursor to a full EV transition.

•

Reinforce the distribution network and provide a fair funding model as wellas smart charging. While significant funding has been applied to smart
charging, the reality is that installing many charge points will still require
network upgrades. Government must continue to work with industry andnetwork operators to ensure there is a fair funding model to enablemaximum charging infrastructure installation, without placing undue costburdens on Network Operators or the first-mover company or Local
Authority in a particular region. Furthermore, electricity grid upgrades must
begin in the 2020s, as ensuring these networks are ready to meet future
demand is more cost-effective than implementing network reinforcements
once demand outstrips capacity.18d) The role of the private sector
The private sector will be instrumental in the EV transition.19 Provided there issufficient long-term clarity of policy to address market barriers, the various actors in
the EV ecosystem can work together to create a sustaining market transformation.
These primarily include manufacturers (including charge point manufacturers,
battery manufacturers, vehicle manufacturers – both traditional OriginalEquipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and specialist EV manufacturers, vehicle
component manufacturers and raw materials suppliers), electricity providers(including Distributed Network and Transmission Network Operators and energy
suppliers) and charging infrastructure providers (including retailers, workplaces,
highway service stations, forecourts, Local Authorities, property owners andhousing providers). In particular, the private sector will need to:•

Deliver a charging point network with increased availability, reliability andinteroperability, alongside smart charging. Charge point manufacturers willneed to ensure reliability, with long-term business models and plans in place
to provide for charge point repairs and upgrades. This is an essential step toinstil confidence among EV users and Local Authority partners. Charge
point manufacturers must also work collaboratively to enable customers
signed up to one charge point system to easily use charge point systems
from another, appreciating that ease of use will encourage moreconsumers and corporates to access charge points. For all companies,
installing charge points for customers and employees will not only help drive
the transition but also ensure their businesses are resilient to employee and

The UK’s transition to electric vehicles

4customer needs once the transition happens. Further innovation andprovision of smart charging solutions will open up markets faster for EVs andcharge points, as delays to electricity grid capacity and network upgrades
create less of a bottleneck, encouraging increased EV uptake.
•Transition manufacturing for vans and passenger vehicles. Manufacturers ofhigh-emissions vehicles in 2020 will need to become manufacturers of zeroemissions vehicles by 2030. Numerous manufacturers around the world
have already signalled an end to the production of conventional petroland diesel combustion vehicles, and are re-orienting operations andbusiness models to EV production. UK manufacturers should set out theirplans to 2030 and begin the necessary shift of their manufacturing
processes and supply chains. While many companies are still maximising
their past R&D investments by focusing on conventional vehicles 2, delaying
a shift in R&D and planning could leave UK companies behind by 2032 if
overseas manufacturers have stepped up with the necessary provision.
Innovating business models for the new electric future will also be as
essential as technical innovation, and work should start as soon as possible
to ensure margins remain attractive and viable. Battery-electric vehicles
have fewer parts than petrol and diesel vehicles and are mechanically lesscomplex, meaning they are simpler to assemble. However, carmanufacturers will need to either manufacture battery cells and packs inhouse or set up new supply chains working with battery manufacturers.2 As
they shift their production, companies should actively sell and promote EVs
and raise awareness among consumers that vehicle choice can be aseffective as other lifestyle choices in reducing personal carbon footprints.
Companies will need to make the full pivot to electric as soon as possible toachieve the 2030 target.

•

Develop long-term EV strategies and signal future demand. Over 20
companies with operations in the UK have now committed to fully electric
fleets by 203020, and 34 companies, Local Authorities and governmentalorganisations have committed to transition to electric vans by 2028.21
Planning for full fleet transitions not only enables companies – as well as
central and local Government – to prepare for the inevitable shift toelectric, but also helps to break down market barriers.22 Importantly,
signalling future demand enables Government and the private sector to
improve supply planning for EVs, the charging infrastructure required andthe electricity grid and network capacity required for the full transition.
Electric passenger vehicles are expected to reach price parity withconventional petrol and diesel vehicles on a total cost of ownership basisby 202423 and in terms of upfront costs by 20303, so planning now for longerterm scale-up is wise as demand will increase. Corporate fleets also feed
the second-hand market; by scaling their fleets sooner, companies will
provide a larger supply of lower-cost vehicles to the public in the years
ahead. 24e) Opportunities and benefits
The transition to EVs will bring significant benefits and present market opportunities,
particularly as the UK seeks to recover from COVID-19:•

5

A green recovery. The green recovery will require the prioritisation of
infrastructure projects that not only reduce emissions but are labourintensive, spread geographically across the UK and have high multipliereffects. These include national infrastructure projects such as improved
charge point infrastructure and electricity grid upgrades, which could be
brought forward to stimulate jobs and investment.15

•Improved air quality. The link between EVs and air quality is clear. Air
pollution is the top environmental risk to human health in the UK 25, and in
the UK alone in 2016 was responsible for 40,000 premature deaths.26 Poor air
quality has also been linked to increased deaths from COVID-19. A full shift
to EVs by 2050 will have one of the highest impacts particularly on reducing
nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and non-methane volatile organic compounds(NMVOC)27, responsible for asthma, inflammation and other lung problems.
A further study conducted for the CCC indicated that air quality and noise
impacts from the electrification of transport could result in annual benefits
close to 0.1% GDP in 2030.28•

New market opportunities. There is an opportunity for the UK automotive
manufacturing sector to become a world leader in the development andproduction of EVs. Early investment in EVs will help to deliver this.
Consultants Vivid Economics found that a UK transition to 100% market
share of EVs by 2030 is likely to increase investment in the EV industry, withpotential to increase UK production from around 16,000 EVs today toaround 880,000 EVs per year, creating 89,000 green jobs in the EV industry. 18f) Conclusion
The 2030 EV transition will happen if the right policy frameworks implemented byGovernment support and direct the right corporate actions by the private sector.
As the infographic (overleaf) illustrates, every Government policy lever – if
designed well – could lead to the right actions at the right times, ensuring that the
UK is able to deliver on its commitment to end new sales of petrol and diesel
vehicles by 2030.

The UK’s transition to electric vehicles

62. Illustrative pathway to deliver the EV transition
Figure 2.1 Infographic showing an illustrative pathway to deliver the2030 EV transition

Notes: This figure shows an illustrative pathway through which the sales of EVs could be scaled up to meet the Government’s p lanned 2030 phase-out
date for new sales of petrol and diesel vehicles and to deliver 100% of all sales being zero -emission by 2032, as required to meet the Sixth Carbon Budget
Balanced Net Zero Pathway. Most dates shown within this infographic are illustrative and are not representative of commitments made or recommen ded
approaches. Other pathways may be possible, and there could be opportunities to deliver some phases of the transition sooner.

7

CCC (2020), The Sixth Carbon Budget – methodology report.
CCC (2019), Net Zero – technical report.
3 CCC (2020), The Sixth Carbon Budget – the path to Net Zero.
4 Department for Transport (2020), Electric vehicle charging device statistics.
5 HM Government (2019), Electric vehicle smart charging.
6 Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Department for Transport and Office for
Low Emission Vehicles (2020), Government vision for the rapid chargepoint network in England.
7 HM Government (2019), Electric vehicle charging in residential and non-residential buildings.
8 Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (2016), English housing survey: stock
condition.
9 Department for Transport (2020), Electric vehicle charging devices by Local Authority.
10 Ofgem (2020), RIIO ED-2 – ongoing review of price control, access and forward-looking charges
review.
11 Business Green (2019), VW ups electric model ambitions by 50 per cent.
12 Parkers (2020), Electric van guide – everything you need to know.
13 HM Government (2017), The clean growth strategy: leading the way to a low-carbo future.
14 CCC (2019), Net Zero – the UK’s contribution to stopping global warming.
15 CCC (2020), Letter to the Prime Minister on COVID-19 Recovery.
16 CCC (2020), Progress Report 2020.
17 CCC (2020), The Sixth Carbon Budget – policy recommendations.
18 Vivid Economics and Imperial College London for the CCC (2019), Accelerated electrificationand the GB electricity system.
19 CCC (2019), Business Guidance to Net Zero.
20 The Climate Group (2020), EV100.
21 Global Action Plan (2019), Clean van commitment.
22 CCC Expert Advisory Group (2019), Report to the Committee on Climate Change of theAdvisory Group on costs and benefits of Net Zero.
23 Deloitte (2019), Battery-electric vehicles – new markets, new entrants, new challenges.
24 PricewaterhouseCoopers (2020), Fleets set to unlock an electric vehicle revolution.
25 HM Government (2019), Clean air strategy.
26 Royal College of Physicians (2016), Every breath we take: the lifelong impact of air pollution.
27 Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (2020), Impacts of Net Zero pathways on
future air quality in the UK.
28 Ricardo-AEA for the CCC (2013), Review of the impacts of carbon budget measures on humanhealth and the environment.
1
2

The UK’s transition to electric vehicles

8