Chinese nuclear weapons capability【Overview】
After an analysis of satellite photographs several United States research groups revealed that during the year
2021 at least 300 silos, which appeared to be for ICBM, were under construction in three locations in the central
interior of China (Korda, Matt & Kristensen, Hans M. 2021 and Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021). A 2021
United States Department of Defense report to Congress on China’ military power also confirmed this to be a fact
(Office of the Secretary of Defense 2021). Including this information, the Department of Defense’s report also
predicted that China is accelerating the expansion of its nuclear capabilities, and that the total number ofdeliverable warheads would be 700 by 2027 and 1,000 by 2030. However, the 2020 edition of the same reportcontained no change in the estimated total number of China’s nuclear warheads as being in “the low 200s” (Officeof the Secretary of Defense 2020). RECNA follows the estimates of Kristensen et al. and puts the figure for Chinese
warheads at 350, the same as last year (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021 and Kristensen, Hans M., Korda,Matt & Norris, Robert S. 2022). With regard to the disparity with the United States Defense Department’s
estimates, Kristensen at al. explain that while the Department of Defense counts only the number of warheads
already deployed, they have included the number of warheads in a state of preparedness for operation.
On July 2019, China released a document on its national defense and military policies, which is commonly referredas the "white paper," for the first time in four years. In the paper, China specified that its position regarding its
nuclear declaratory policies has not changed (State Council Information Office of PRC, 2019). These declaratory
policies include: unconditional no-first-use of nuclear weapons, not to use or threaten the use of nuclear weapons
against any non-nuclear weapon state or States Parties of any nuclear weapon free zone treaties, and not toengage in any nuclear arms races with other nations. As discussed below there is a debate over suspicions that
China may be changing its policy, but the above-mentioned U.S. Department of Defense report of 2021 statesthat there are no signs from the pronouncements of senior Chinese officials that China is changing its policy.
Chinese announcements regarding their nuclear weapons policy are few and far between, and lacking intransparency. In the midst of this situation, the U.S. Department of Defense is carefully watching both themodernization of Chin’s nuclear weapons and the drills of its nuclear forces in order to improve their state ofcombat readiness, and estimates that as is the case with parts of the United states’ and Russia’s nuclear
capabilities, China is moving towards a launch on warning (LOW) posture (Office of the Secretary of Defense 2021).
However, there is also the theory that in order to improve their “survivability” by enabling the firing of retaliatory
nuclear weapons before their nuclear capability is destroyed in the event of suffering initial attack by an enemy, it
is possible to understand China’s moves to improve its state of readiness, and it is thus reasonable to believe that
there has been no change in China’ s hitherto posture of “no first use.” (Korda, Matt & Kristensen, Hans M. 2021)
Numbers of warheads in the table are all approximate and originally derived from the available documentarysources (Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2021). Currently, PRC warheads capable of reaching the U.S.
mainland (DF-5A, DF-5B, DF-31A, DF-31AG, and DF-41) are thought to number about 190. Estimates of the Chinesebudget related to nuclear weapons are difficult, but if we assume that around 5% of the overall defense budget
has been used, the amount spent on nuclear weapons during 2021 was between USD10.5 billion and USD15.7
billion (Zhang, Hui 2022).

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Chinese nuclear weapons capability
The numbers that have changed since last year are highlighted in red
Updated: June 1, 2022
Type / designation

NATO designation

Range(km)Yield (kt)

No. ofRemarks

warheads

Deployed

0Reserve / Nondeployed1)

350

Ground-based ballistic missile258

Dong-Feng DF-4

CSS-3

Dong-Feng DF-5A

CSS-4 M2

Dong-Feng DF-5B

CSS-4 M3

Dong-Feng DF-15

CSS-6

Dong-Feng DF-17

5,500+

3,300

62)

13,0004,000 -+5,000

103)

3×200 - 300

503)

600?

?

4)

CSS-221,800+?

?

5)

Dong-Feng DF-21

CSS-5

2,150

200 - 300

406)

Dong-Feng DF-26?

4,000+200 - 300

207)

Dong-Feng DF-31

CSS-10 M1

7,200200 - 300

68)

Dong-Feng DF-31A

CSS-10 M2

11,200200 - 300

369)

Dong-Feng DF-31AG

CSS-10 M3?

11,200200 - 300

3610)

Dong-Feng DF-41

CSS-X-20

12,0003×200-300

5411)

7213)

7212)

13,000++Submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM)
Julang JL-2

CSS-NX-14

7,000+

200 – 300?

Airborne bombs

20

Nuclear bomb2014)?

15)

Air-launched ballistic missile?

?

?

Total inventory

350©RECNA Nuclear Warhead Data Monitoring Team

【Notes】
1)Since the nuclear warheads are stored separately from missiles, they are viewed not as operationally deployed but as reserve /nondeployed warheads. (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021). As regards submarine-launched ballistic missiles, because
China is not known to always maintain a submarine on an underwater patrol/deterrence mission, we treat it likewise (see Note 11).

2)

The characters 東風 are romanized as Dong-feng. China’s last remaining mobile, liquid-fueled missile. All or some are deployedin tunnels. According to U.S. intelligence agencies, they probably have single warheads. Deployed in 1980. They are capable ofreaching India, part of Russia and Guam (Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2015). Currently being replaced by the DF-31
and expected to fully retire soon.

3)

The characters 東風 are romanized as Dong-feng. Liquid-propellant. Silo-based. There are the single-warhead DF-5A and MIRVed
DF-5B. The U.S. Department of Defense report puts the figure at five (Office of the Secretary of Defense 2021).
2 / 54)

If deployed, this is the only short-range nuclear missile currently deployed by China. The U.S. CIA thought the August 1990 nuclear
tests were possibly to develop warheads for short-range ballistic missiles, and estimated that deployment would start in September
1993. However, the U.S. Department of Defense lists the DF-15 as a conventional weapon (Office of the Secretary of Defense
2021). If this is correct it may mean that although nuclear warhead missiles were developed they were not deployed (Kristensen,Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021).

5)

The characters 東風 are romanized as Dong-feng. It appeared at the Chinese National Day parade in 2019 and garnered attention
as a hypersonic boost-glide missile. Sixteen of the missiles were paraded. At the time it was introduced as a conventional warhead
missile but there are reports that it can be used for both nuclear and non-nuclear missiles, and the U.S. Strategic Command regard
it as a strategic nuclear weapon system. Kristensen et al. say it is difficult to estimate the number of warheads (Kristensen, Hans
M. & Korda, Matt 2021).

6)

The characters 東風 are romanized as Dong-feng. Until recently they have been the mainstay of China’s intermediate-range
missile force. Solid-propellant. 2-stage Mobile. According to U.S. intelligence agencies, they probably have single warheads.
Deployed in 1981. The DF-21 also carries a conventional warhead (anti-ground and anti-ship). The DF-21A and DF-21E are regarded
as nuclear warhead missiles, the DF-21C as conventional warhead surface-to-surface missiles, and the DF-21D as conventional
warhead anti-ship missiles (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021).

7)

The characters 東風 are romanized as Dong-feng. 16 missiles appeared in a military parade in 2016. In 2018 the first DF-26
missile brigade was established. They are currently thought to number more than 100 and have become the mainstay of China’s
intermediate-range missile force (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021).They are road-mobile missiles with a range of 4,000km, and put Guam within strike range. The missiles have a high degree of target strike precision and can be used for nuclear or
non-nuclear warheads. The possibility of their use to strike United States’ aircraft carriers with conventional warheads has been
discussed, and earned them the nickname “Carrier Killer[s] ” (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2019). The number of missiles
with nuclear capability is put at 40, and the replacement warheads are estimated to be conventional weapons (Kristensen, Hans
M. & Korda, Matt 2021).

8)

The characters 東風 are romanized as Dong-feng. It first appeared as the first Chinese solid-propellant ballistic missile in 2006.
3-stage (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021). Road-mobile. Initially deployed in 2006. According to U.S. intelligence agencies,
they probably have single warheads. They are gradually being replaced by DF-31AG. The U.S. Department of Defense estimates therange at 7,200 km (Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2021).

9)

The characters 東 風 are romanized as Dong-feng. Solid-propellant. 3-stage. Mobile. Deployed in 2007. According to U.S.
intelligence agencies, they probably have single warheads. The U.S. Department of Defense estimates the range as 11,200 km(Office of the Secretary of Defense, 2021). Twelve have been deployed per one brigade, and it is estimated that there are threesuch brigades in existence (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021).

10) The characters 東風 are romanized as Dong-feng. The People’s Liberation Army’s 90th anniversary parade in 2017 showcased amodified transporter erector launcher (TEL), fueling speculation for a new ICBM. A 2019 report from the U.S. Department ofDefense described the DF-31AG as nuclear capable (Office of the Secretary of Defense 2019). Although a rode-mobile type it isthought that its off-road maneuverability has been improved in order to improve “survivability.” While the launcher is modified, itsdelivery capacity, in terms of warheads, is estimated to be the same (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021).
11) The characters 東風 are romanized as Dong-feng. Eighteen of the missiles were showcased at the National Day parade in October
2019. According to testimony at the Unite States Congress the missiles were deployed in 2020 (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt2021). Likely MIRV-capable (Office of the Secretary of Defense 2019). The number of MIRVs is estimated at three (Kristensen,Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021). Likely solid fuel (Gertz, Bill 2016).
12) The characters 巨浪 are romanized as Julang. Single warheads. A variant of the DF-31. Plans are to carry them on the Jin-class (type3 / 5094) nuclear submarine. 12 launch tubes. Launch tests had initially failed, but were successful in 2013. The U.S. Department ofDefense estimates the range at 7,200km (Office of the Secretary of Defense 2021). With this limited range, it would take an advanceinto the far ends of the Pacific to cover all key cities in the U.S. mainland. It is thought that the missiles on all of China’s submarines
are equipped with nuclear warheads.
13) Six Jin Class strategic nuclear submarines are armed with the missiles. Six of the submarines are in active service, with four underoperational deployment (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021). It is not known if the Jin fleet has been committed to strategic
deterrence patrols. Peace time patrols will necessitate a formal change in China’s basic doctrine and require upgrades incommunications as well as command and control systems (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2020, Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda,Matt 2021).
14) Of the 100-120 轟 (Hong) H-6 bombers (NATO designation: B-6), 20 are thought to have a nuclear mission. Combat radius 3,100km. Deployed in 1965. For some time it had not been clear if China's bomber fleet had any nuclear mission. The U.S. Departmentof Defense reports have since 2018 estimated that the H-6 bombers are for nuclear missions, and a 2019 report quotes Chinese
documents stating the nuclear mission of the performance-enhanced H-6K (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021).
15) The H-6N bomber that first appeared in October 2019 is thought to be planned to deliver the air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBM)
that are currently under development. As a result of this it is judged that China has established for the first time the air as the third
pillar of its strategic nuclear weapons (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021).

【Source】
Gertz, Bill 2016: “China Flight Tests New Multiple-Warhead Missile,” The Washington Free Beacon, April 19, 2016,
http://freebeacon.com/national-security/china-flight-tests-multiple-warhead-missile/(accessed May 4, 2022)

Korda, Matt & Kristensen, Hans M. 2021, “A Closer Look at China’s Missile Silo Construction,” Federation of American Scientists, Nov. 2,2021
https://fas.org/blogs/security/2021/11/a-closer-look-at-chinas-missile-silo-construction/ (accessed May 2, 2022)

Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2019: “Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2019,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 75, #4, 2019,https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00963402.2019.1628511?needAccess=true （accessed May 4,2022）

Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021: “Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2021,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 77, #6, 2021,
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Kristensen, Hans M., Korda, Matt & Norris, Robert S. 2022: “Status of World Nuclear Forces,” Federation of American Scientists, updated
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Kristensen, Hans M. & Norris, Robert S. 2015: “Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2015,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 71, #4, 2015,
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0096340215591247（accessed May 4, 2022）

Office of the Secretary of Defense 2019: “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republicof China 2019,” May 2, 2019. https://media.defense.gov/2019/May/02/2002127082/-1/1/1/2019_CHINA_MILITARY_POWER_REPORT.pdf（accessed May 4, 2022）

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Office of the Secretary of Defense 2020: “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republicof China 2020,” Aug 21, 2020, https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWERREPORT-FINAL.PDF （accessed May 3, 2022）

Office of the Secretary of Defense 2021: “Annual Report to Congress: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republicof China 2021,” Nov. 3, 2021. https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF(accessed May3, 2022)

State Council of Information Office of PRC: “China’s National Defense in the New Era,” July 2019,http://english.www.gov.cn/archive/whitepaper/201907/24/content_WS5d3941ddc6d08408f502283d.html (accessed May 3, 2022)

Zhang, Hui 2022: Chapter ‘China’, “Assuring Destruction Forever: 2022 edition,” edited by Allison Pytlak & Ray Acheson, January 2022,
Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom
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