Future AIM modeling~Focused on global models and national assessment tools~
Yuzuru Matsuoka
The 12th AIM International Workshop
19-21, February 2007
At Conference Room in Climate Change Research Hall
(Not Ohyama Memorial Hall)
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 3058506,Tsukuba, Japan

Future direction of AIM, 20071

AIM model family, FY2007
Category

NameConservation of ecosystem/
Ecosystem

water stress/ landuse/ pollution
in developing countries

Top-down models

Global/CGE

Energy, GHG Control
CO2 reduction, energy

Materialconsumption, waste management.
environmental industry

Econometric
Backcasting
Population/Household
BuildingObjective

Target year

FY 2006-2007 activity～2100

Merge and extend to one

Multi-regional CGE + various

land use and ecosystem

environmental process models

Projection of long-term GHGs emission

Multi-regional CGE model～2100-2150

One regional national CGE model～2030-2050 houshold models, transport models
and so on.

Economic and material flow impact by climate andother environmental policy

global/CGE model as a plathome of AR5 scenario activity
Connecting with stock models,

National scale models toward low carbon society

Forecasting macro-economic

Quantification and analysis of macroeconomic andframeenergy variables

GHG, Energy, Low carbon

Establishing scenarios toward saustainable societysocietyfrom view points of environment and economy

Population, household

Model type

Modeling of relationship among economic activities,

Country-level econometric model～2050

Country-level dynamic optimization model～2050

Establishing scenarios toward saustainable society

Cohort-component model, housholdfrom view points of environment and economy

transition matrix model

Residential, non-residential

Estimation of building demands related to housholdbuildingchange, economic change and so on

Extend to a multi-regional world
model

Implementation and Operation～2050

Stock dynamics model～2050

Trip generation, modal share modeling～2050

Quantitative shinario making

Models /Tools forscenario making

Global model for climate policy assessment

Category

Transport

Passenger and Freight transport Estimation of transport demand related todemandnational/regional/urban land planning

Infrastracture, capital,

Estimation of raw material needs, waste generationbuildings

related to recycling and economic activity

tools for mid-term
national/regional integrated
assessment

StocksEnergy supply anddemand regulation
End-use, Energy,Technology

Enduse[global]

Bottom-up
Enduse[country]
Enduse[local]
ImpactImpact[Country]

Impact Assessmentof electlicity, heat andEnduse[Air]energy demand and supply

Simulation and optimization type model～2050

hydrogen
GHG,SO2,NOX ,PM abatement

Technology selection for global warming, regional air Country-level or regional-level bottom-up

technology

pollution

GHG,SO2,NOX ,PM abatement

Technology selection for global warming, regional air Country-level or regional-level bottom-up

technology

pollution

GHG,SO2,NOX ,PM abatement

Technology selection for global warming, regional air Country-level or regional-level bottom-up

technology

pollutionmodel

Impact assessment at global scale

Process model based on raster GIS data

Impact assessment of climatechangeImpact assessment of climatechangeevaluation and impact
assessment

Water

～2050

Temporal and spatial regulation Adjustment among temporal and spatial fluctuation ofIntegration of mitigation policy
Impact[policy]

Stock dynamics model

Impact assessment

Environmental Assesment

model

model

Still developing. Estimation of～2050

feasibility and economic burdensof low carbon world～2050
Keep maintainance
～2030
～2100

Keeping maintainance andreinforcement ? Anyway, it isnecessary to reconfirm theImpact assessment at country scale

Process model based on raster GIS data

～2100

developing policy, to review
and to reorganize it.

Investigation of stabilization level and mitigation
policy with considering consequent impacts

Change to multi-regional emission
Calculating global GHGs paths
Coupling process model with andfocusing on urban area

statistics

analysismodel, improve climate and carbon
cycle modules

Integrated assessment of water supply and demand

Regional and country scale atmospheric environmental

～2200

～2050

Coupling with AIM/GBDB(Globalbasin database)
Coupling with AIM/Enduse[local],Atmospheric quality model + GIS

Future direction of AIM, 2007

～2050

for assessing long-range and urban
air pollution issues.

2

Focusingpoints•AR5 new scenario activity•LCS/APEIS activities•Others• Three global climate policy assessment
models
Impact[Policy], Global[CGE],
Enduse[Global]• Two tools for national sustainable study
Extended Snapshot(ESS), Backcasting
Model(BCM)
Future direction of AIM, 20073

Three global climate policy assessment models
Impact[Policy], Global[CGE], Enduse[Global]•Impact[Policy]: Calculating long-term global GHGs paths undervarious climate stabilization targets, main focus is on global
characteristics of paths as well as the rough global scaleassessment of climate impact/benefit of mitigation•

Global[CGE]: Describing regional details of energy system andeconomic impacts under global climate policies in this century.
Expected as a common platform of AR5 by national teams.

•Enduse[Global]: Describing regional details of mitigation
potential and engineering characteristics under various global
and national climate policies in the first half of this century

Future direction of AIM, 20074AIM/Impact[Policy]- Global and Long-term climate-economic-energy integrated model
multi-regions (< 10), year 2000 to year 2200
- Dynamic global model consisted with;
Dynamic economic CGE module maximizing social utility+ Simplified climate module (global surface energy balance model)+ Carbon cycle module with feedback mechanism+ Simplified chemical reaction module+ Climate impact module- Gases : CO2, CH4, N2O, BC, SO2, and F gases- Now, developing mainly by AIM impact group,
updating with latest climate mechanisms and information- Immediate refinements: 1)to multi-regional, 2) inclusion of climate
feedback mechanism, 3) systematic and organized methodology of impact
assessment.
Future direction of AIM, 2007

5World regional classification of global AIM activity( top-down/bottom-up)
Asia

Oceania

North America

South America

Africa

JPN

JPN

AUS

AUS

CAN

CAN

ARG

ARG

CHN

CHN

NZL

NZL

USA

USA

BRZ

BRZ

MEX

MEX

HKG
IND

IND

IDN

IDN

KOR

KOR

THA

THA

XRW

ZAF

Europe

ZAF
XAF

XLM

BRN MMRRUS

CYP

BHR OMN
IRN
IRQ

KHM

PHL

LAO

SGP

XSE

QAT

XE10

SAU

XE15

RUS

XRW

MYS VNMISRSYR

JOR

ARE

XME
TLS

KWT YEM
LBN

XRW

BGD

NPL

BTN

PAK

MDV

LKA

: Region classification of UN
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/m49/m49regin.htm
XSA: Region classification of AIM [Global]: Country

Future direction of AIM, 2007

6

2006.8.17
GH of MHIRAIM/Global[CGE]- Global and Long-term economic model
23 regions (same as AIM/Enduse[global]), year 2000 to year 2100
- Recursive dynamic multi-regional CGE model
Implemented on GAMS/MPSGE or GAMS/MCP
Factor markets: land, labor, and capital
Product markets: industrial, agricultural, energy
Production sectors: industry, agriculture, energy
Final demand sectors: households, governments, investment
CES/Leontief production function, putty/clay capitals- Detailed energy resource information
Fossil fuels (conventional, non-conventional)
Renewables (hydro, wind, solar, biomass...)Nuclear- Gases : CO2, CH4, N2O, BC, SO2, and F gases- Calibration (year 2001) with
GTAP ver.6 database, IEA energy data, FAOSTAT etc.
- Distributed to AIM members in the next AIM workshop
Future direction of AIM, 20077

AIM/Enduse[Global]- Regional bottom-up type model
23 regions (same as AIM/Global[CGE]), year 2000 to year 2050
- Regional energy enduse module coupled with
Regional energy resource module
International energy, basic materials balance module
Regional macro-economy and energy service demand module- Emission sectors (activities)
Industrial, residential and commercial, transport, agriculture,
non-agricultural non CO2 emission sectors, F gases- Systematic reconciliation of base year information amongstocks of energy devices, energy efficiency, energy services, andenergy consumption- Gases: CO2, CH4, N2O, BC, SO2, and F gases- Compatibility with national AIM enduse modeling activity
using same methodology and classification ofenergy/device/service
Future direction of AIM, 20078AIM/Enduse[Global]
Database

Database
Trade matrix

transportation cost andtrade barrier

International Energy, Basic Materials Balance
Module2
re 3gions

Trades of energy, BMs
and other goods

Production and extraction
amount of energy

World energy
and BM price

Energy demandand Supply

Regional macro-economy and energy
service demand module

Energy service demand andenergy priceRegional energy
production andsupply module

Regional technology
bottom-up module

Resources-Cost
database

Final energy demand

F gasesemission sector

Non-agriculture
CH4・N2O
emission sector

agriculture
sectorTransport sector

Residential andcommercial
sectorIndustrial sector

Energy price andemission coefficient

Energy transformation
sectorFuture direction of AIM, 2007

TechnologyDatabase

9Relation among three global models

Global GHGs
emission paths

Impact [Policy]
Year 2000-2200

With a certain burdenshare scheme

Common database•Social andmacroeconomy•Energy supply
and demand

Reconciliation
between monetary
term and physicalterm

Global [CGE]Year 2000-2100

Regional macroeconomic frames
World energy priceReconciliation among
energy stocks,efficiency, energy
services, and energy
consumption

Aggregation of energy
efficiency, substitution
coefficients, emission
coefficients

Aggregation of energy
efficiency, substitution
coefficients, emission
coefficients

Enduse [Global]
Year 2000-2050

All in soft linkage
Future direction of AIM, 200710

Schedule of global models’ development
Impact[Policy], Global[CGE], Enduse[Global]

Future direction of AIM, 200711

Tentative schedule of global models’ development
Impact[Policy], Global[CGE], Enduse[Global]• Impact[Policy]:
Finishing immediate modification, and fully operational by[this summer]• Global[CGE]:
First version completed by [this summer]
Completion of Manuals and documents in [this Autumn]
Start distribution by [the end of FY2007]• Enduse[Global]:Global version completed by [this Autumn]
Completion of Manuals and documents by [the endof FY 2007]
Reviewing the output by AIM international members in [theearly period of FY2008]
Future direction of AIM, 200712

Models/Tools for national sustainable society study
LCS/APEIS as immediate applications

Element models;
1) Snapshot models;- Quasi steady Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model- Energy technology bottom-up models- Energy supply model- Household production/lifestyle model- Transportation demand model2) Transition models;- Population and household model- Building dynamics model- Econometric type macro-economy model
Integration models (tools);
Extended Snapshot Tool (ESS)
Backcasting Model for transient control (BCM)
Future direction of AIM, 2007

13Extended SnapShot (ESS)REQUIRED
IMPROVEMENT

Passenger transportation model
Building model
Freight transportation model
Population andhousehold model

Residential
BuildingResidential
ServiceCommercial
Building

Commercial
ServicePopulation
Changes of Input
and import coefficientTime budget

Input/Output
model

Labor

Employment
coefficient

Final demand
converter

Macro-economy
model
AIM/econometric,
AIM/Material

Freight
Transportation
Industrial
production

Sectoralfinal demand
Food production

MSW/ISW

Energy consumption

Demographic andtime budget
scenarios

Aggregated energy and emission calculation in final sectors

Passenger
Transportation

ForestFuture direction of AIM, 2007

Aggregated energy and emission calculation in
final sectors Energy supply

AIM/enduse
model•Now written withExcel, GAMS version
will be also prepared•Explicit relationshipbetween parameters inelement models andESS•Friendly interface andgood operationality•Systematic extension
to other environmental
loads

GHG emissions
Total energy
consumption
Other
environmentalload generation

14

Element models
Description andquantification of
dynamic
characteristics andchanging mechanism ofsocial / energy
services with abottom-up approach
1. Road maps of Energy
technologies, andproduction / consumption
technology progress
2. Transition models
z Population / household
dynamic modelz Macro-economic modelz Infrastructure /building dynamic model
3. Snap shot modelsz Household production /lifestyle modelz Passenger / freighttransportation demandmodelz Energy supply anddemand balance modelzEnergy technology
bottom-up model

Backcasting model (BCM)（multi-sector dynamic optimization model)• Integrating information of point 1 to3, as a system of linear equations.
• Identify optimal path ofinfrastructure and capital investment
in order to maximize cumulative social
utility （present discounted value,
final consumption level and social
service level） from 2005 to 2050
under the following constraints:

9 Demand-and-supply balance ofgoods and services9 Balance of energy services andenergy demand-and-supply
9 Demand-and-supply balance of labor
9 Balance of international payment
9 Balance of infrastructure, buildings,
and production capital stock
Future direction of AIM, 2007

Object• Quantify
specificmeasures forrequiredtransition
control• Analyze
requiredconditions fortrend breaks
in each sector,
and identify
the feasibilityof achieving
the CO2
reduction
targetREQUIRED
IMPROVEMENT•Explicit
relationshipbetweenmechanism orparameters inelement models
and BCM•Enhancement offeasibility
analysis/goalprogramming
module•Friendlyinterface andgoodoperationality

15

Relations among ESS, BCM, and Element models
Element models•Macro-economy
model•Population andhousehold
model•Building model•Passenger
transportation
model•Freighttransportation
model•Energy supplymodel•Material stockdynamics model•Energy enduse
modelsSupply transient and dynamic parameters basedon more physically realistic mechanisms
Supply social,physicalparameters
based on more
physicallyrealisticmechanisms

Supply target
visionquantitativelyExtended
SnapshotTool (ESS)

Check and analyze
quantitative
consistency offuture societies

Supply values of parameters based onmore physically realistic mechanisms

Future direction of AIM, 2007

Backcasting
Model (BCM)

Design roadmaps
toward futurevisions

Check and verify thefuture visions andtransient paths from thepoints of economic reality

Sequential
CGE type
model suchas AIM/material

16

Tentative schedule of these two tools’ developmentz Extended Snapshot Tool (ESS) :・Preparing user and technical manual by [the first halfof FY 2007]
・Holding a training workshop in [summer/autumn of FY 2007]
・Reporting outputs in [the next AIM workshop]z Backcasting Model (BCM) :・Testing the model within Japan LCS study during the firsthalf of FY 2007]
・Preparing user and technical manual by [the next AIM
workshop]・Start collaborative study with each national team from [ FY2008]

Future direction of AIM, 200717