Session II and III Impact Modeling（１）、（２）
Chaired by Harasawa (NIES)
1. Introduction of Impact Study :Harasawa
2. Impacts on South Asia : Prof. Lal
3. Progress of AIM/Impact Models- Dr. Takahashi- Profs Li and You- Mr. Jung
- Dr. R. Bore (BogorAgri. Univercity, Indonesia)- Dr. Kapshe- Prof. Lal

4. Discussion

Introduction of Impacts Study
S-3 Low
CarbonSociety2050 (MoEP)

S-4
StrategicImpacts
Research(MoE P)

SubjectCentral
Env.
Council(Int’lStrategy)

Stabilization andImpacts/Risk

2℃、475ppm,475ppm, ←+ burden
Impact Map,
50% GHG cut Impact/Policy
sharingFunctionin 2050

Projects

IPCC AR4(Impacts,Adaptation,
Vulnerability)

Integrated
Integrate
Monitoring
Impacts
NetworkMonitori
Monitoring

Extreme events
Impacts

Scenario
Data : Climate
Model, etc.

NIES Global
Warming
Research(FY 20062011)
New GW
Research Prog.

Impacts Detection

Adaptation

GlobalWarming
Initiative(CSTP, 2006～)

ClimateRisk Man.
Adaptation
Strategy Plan

ExtremeEvents andImpacts (B-12)

Ch.10 Asia

Impacts andAdaptation (B52)

Ch.17
Adaptation

NIES next
Research Plan

Next IPCC
Scenario,GEO
4 Water

NIES, MoE,
IR3S

Agri.
ImpactHeat
Stress

ImpactImpactRef.、
Temp. andImpacts

Ｏｆｆｉｃｅ ｆｏｒ Ｃｏｏｒｄｉｎａｔｉｏｎ of Climate Change Observation(OCCCO)

IPCC AR4 :Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis
Understanding and Attributing Climate Change・ FAR, １９９０
… The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate
models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability.
Thus the observed increases could be largely due to this natural variability;
alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a stilllarger human-induced greenhouse warming. The unequivocal detection of
the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decadeor more.

・ SAR, １９９５
The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global
climate.

・ TAR, ２００１
… most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to havebeen due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

・ AR4、２００７
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged Temperatures since themid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase inanthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales,
numerous long-term changes in climate havebeen observed. These include:– Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice,
– Widespread changes in precipitation amounts,
ocean salinity, wind patterns– and aspects of extreme weather including
droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves andthe intensity of tropical cyclones

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006,
2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

PeriodRate

50 0.128±0.026
100 0.074±0.018

Years °/decadeLand precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas

Increases

Decreases

Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability.

Table SPM-1. Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend, andprojections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late
20th century trend.

North Atlantic hurricanes have increased with SSTs

N. Atlantichurricane
record best
after
1944afterwith
Markedincrease
aircraft1994surveillance.
(1944-2005)

SST

Global numberandpercentage ofintense
hurricanes
is increasingWarm nights are increasing; cold nights decreasing

1979-2003
1951-1978
1901-1950⇐fewermore⇒⇐fewermore⇒

Frequency of occurrence of cold or warm temperatures for 202
global stations for 3 time periods:
1901 to 1950 (black), 1951 to 1978 (blue) and 1979 to 2003 (red).

Heat waves are increasing: an example

Extreme Heat Wave
Summer 2003
EuropeSnow cover and Arctic sea ice are decreasing

Spring snow covershows 5% stepwise drop
during 1980s

Arctic sea ice
area decreased by 2.7% perdecade(Summer:-7.4%/decade)Glaciers and frozen ground are receding

Increased Glacier retreat since theearly 1990s

Area of seasonally frozen ground in NH
has decreased
by 7% from 1901 to 2002

IPCC WG2 Topics• Emerging Impacts of Global Warming in theWorld (Detection of impacts)• Compilation of Impacts Data and Knowledge forStabilization and Major Vulnerability Issues• Extreme Events and Global Warming (EuropeHeatwave, Hurricane Katrina)• Large Scale Extreme Events• Acidification of Ocean• Adaptation and Mitigation• Global Warming and Sustainable Development

Figure SPM-1. Locations of observed changes in physical systems (cryosphere, hydrology, and coastal processes)
and biological systems (terrestrial, marine, and freshwater biological systems), for studies ending in 1990 or later withat least 20 years of data, shown together with surface temperature changes for 1970-2004.

Table SPM-1. Examples of global
impacts projected for varying
changes in global averagesurface temperature. All entries
are recorded in the fullAssessment.

IPCC WG2 AR4 Asian Chapter

IPCC WG2 AR4 Asian Chapter

Development and Application of AIM/Impacts
・AIM/Impact - Global Model
Advanced Model: Water Resources, Health, Food(Land Use Model?)・AIM/Impact [Country]
AIM/Impact-Korea, China, India
・AIM/Impact [Policy]
Stabilization, Temp., Emission Pathway, OvershootBeyond Kyoto Strategy
・Adaptation Strategy
・Climate Risk Management
・Model Application:-Sustainable Society： Vision and Scenario-Integration of Impacts model to Climate Model