1

Research on Global Climate Policies in NIES

Kiyoshi Takahashi
The 25th AIM workshop @ National Institute for Environmental Studies
20 November 2019

ERTDF2‐1702
Framework of “Integrated Analyses of Climate Policies for2015‐2019
Simultaneous Realization of the Paris Agreement and the SDGs”

Theme1：Global climate policy analyses

Mitigation
targets

Tooldevelopment

Global・Long‐term

Mitigation andenvironmental
models for
global analyses

Theme2・3：Japanese mitigation policy analyses
Japan・Mid/Long‐term

Mitigation models
for national scaleanalyses

Collaborationwith Franceand Germany
Variousstakeholders

International modelcomparisonprojects
IPCC /ipbes etc

Proposition of
integrated
scenarios

Global scenarios
consistent with
Paris agreement
and SDGs

Domestic mitigation
scenarios consistent
with global scenarios

Implication of LCS
policies on othersocial issues

Sustainabledevelopment

Social issues
confronted in Japan

2

3

持続可能な開発目標
Sustainable Development Goals
• T

貧困撲滅

安全な水・ﾄｲﾚ

責任ある生産・消費

健康・福祉

教育の質

ジェンダー平等エネルギー 雇用・経済成長 産業・技術革新

不平等の解消

持続的な街

平和と公正

ﾊﾟｰﾄﾅｰｼｯﾌﾟ

気候変動

飢餓ゼロ

海の豊かさ

森の豊かさ

トレードオフ関係? 共便益関係 ?

Trade-off ? Co-benefit ?

中国を対象とした2℃気候政策と複数SDGsの同時達成分析
Align climate policies with multiple SDGs in China for the 2 °C goal

Liu et al.,Under review• Early climate action + complementary policy
package (food subsidy and forest land rentsubsidy) successfully diminished the negativeside effects while maintaining the co‐benefits.

• Energy security and air pollution can havegreat co‐benefits from climate actions• Food security and land resources
experience trade‐offs.

4

Economic impact of climate change:
Research Framework
Emission scenario
Socioeconomic scenario
RCPSSP

Climatechange
RCP8.5
RCP6.0
RCP4.5
RCP2.62℃

SSP1: Suntainability
SSP2: Middle of the Road
SSP3: Reginal Rivalry
SSP4: Inequality
SSP5: Fossil‐fueled Development
GHG emissions constraint
Socioeconomic assumptions

GHG concentration

Climate model

Gridded population and so on

Crop model
ClimateS‐14‐5
2015‐2019

Water model

Waterresource

IAM（AIM/CGE）

・・・・・・
Health model

Crop yield

GDP

Number ofDeath

Climate impact foreach sector

Total
5
climate loss

Economic impact of climate change:
Results: total impacts global/regional

S‐14‐5
2015‐2019

Takakura et al. (2019)
Nature Climate Change

There is a great divergence in the projected economic impact ranging
from 0.4% to 8.6% of GWP at the end of the century depending on scenarios.

Global analyses of decarbonization and sustainable development
Proposed
2021‐2025

Detailed descriptionof natural system‐ Interaction between the systems‐ Tipping; Planetary boundaries

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

(3) Long‐term analyses of earth‐humansystem sustainability
・ESM‐IAM linked model・Interaction among climate, carbon cycle and humanactivity
・Further understanding of tipping elements
2070

2080

2090

2100

(2) Long‐term mitigation and SD
・Extended CGE model for SD indicators analyses
・GHG pathways towards the achievement of PA‐ Long‐term socio‐economic scenario ・Analyses of knock‐on effects of mitigation on SD‐ Emission pathways toward the long‐ ・Climate risks under the GHG pathways and their implication to equality
term climate target‐ Assumed availability of BECCS etc.

(1) Near‐/Mid‐ term mitigation and SD‐ Spatial socio‐economic scenarios‐ Model modules of CGE/IAM

・Mitigation analyses based on the end‐use models
・GHG pathways for 2030‐ 2050 towards the 2050 target
・Effects of climate policy on SD issues such as air pollutionand natural resource management
・Evaluation of NDCs achievements under the PA‐ Political/technical constraints for the
Detailed descriptionof human system

near‐term period‐ International process of stocktaking…

Global analyses of decarbonization and sustainable development
Proposed
2021‐2025

Detailed descriptionof natural system‐ Interaction between the systems‐ Tipping; Planetary boundaries

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

(3) Long‐term analyses of earth‐humansystem sustainability
・ESM‐IAM linked model・Interaction among climate, carbon cycle and humanactivity
・Further understanding of tipping elements
2070

2080

2090

2100(2) Long‐term mitigation and SD
・Extended CGE model for SD indicators analyses
・GHG pathways towards the achievement of PA‐ Long‐term socio‐economic scenario ・Analyses of knock‐on effects of mitigation on SD‐ Emission pathways toward the long‐ ・Climate risks under the GHG pathways and their implication to equality
term climate target‐ Assumed availability of BECCS etc.

(1) Near‐/Mid‐ term mitigation and SD‐ Spatial socio‐economic scenarios‐ Model modules of CGE/IAM

・Mitigation analyses based on the end‐use models
・GHG pathways for 2030‐ 2050 towards the 2050 target
・Effects of climate policy on SD issues such as air pollution
and natural resource management
・Evaluation of NDCs achievements under the PA‐ Political/technical constraints for theDetailed descriptionof human system

near‐term period‐ International process of stocktaking…

Global analyses of net‐zero emission mitigation andits implications for sustainable development

Integrated scenarios for
global sustainability

Model for analyzing
global emission path
ACC2 & CLIM4OPTResults of climate
impact analyses

Multiple indicators
measuring states of SDGHGemission

Reduced impact models（Impact emulator）

Zero emission
GHG(1) Emission pathways toward long‐term climate
target and subsequent climate risks
Latest climate science

Proposed2020‐2022

YearMitigation
cost
Climate risks

PovertySocial systemtransformation

YearHunger

Global land‐use model
AIM/PLUM

Water stress

Water resource model
H08

Biodiversity model
AIM/BIO

Crop yield mode
CROVER

Terrestrial ecosystemmodel VISIT

Biodiversity

Loss ofbiodiversity

Poverty

Negative emission

Mitigation cost

Waterstress

HungerLoss ofbiodiversity

Poverty
Climate risks

Zero emission+ intervention
GHG

Land management
related constraintsHunger

Climate risks

GHG

Global climate risks –sustainability IAM
AIM/CGE

Mitigation costWater
stressYear

Mitigation costWater
stressHungerLoss ofbiodiversity

Poverty
Climate risks(2) Mitigation strategies considering global sustaimability

Global analyses of decarbonization and sustainable development
Proposed
2021‐2025

Detailed descriptionof natural system‐ Interaction between the systems‐ Tipping; Planetary boundaries

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

(3) Long‐term analyses of earth‐humansystem sustainability
・ESM‐IAM linked model・Interaction among climate, carbon cycle and humanactivity
・Further understanding of tipping elements
2070

2080

2090

2100

(2) Long‐term mitigation and SD
・Extended CGE model for SD indicators analyses
・GHG pathways towards the achievement of PA‐ Long‐term socio‐economic scenario ・Analyses of knock‐on effects of mitigation on SD‐ Emission pathways toward the long‐ ・Climate risks under the GHG pathways and their implication to equality
term climate target‐ Assumed availability of BECCS etc.

(1) Near‐/Mid‐ term mitigation and SD‐ Spatial socio‐economic scenarios‐ Model modules of CGE/IAM

・Mitigation analyses based on the end‐use models
・GHG pathways for 2030‐ 2050 towards the 2050 target
・Effects of climate policy on SD issues such as air pollution
and natural resource management
・Evaluation of NDCs achievements under the PA‐ Political/technical constraints for theDetailed descriptionof human system

near‐term period‐ International process of stocktaking…

Modelling of interaction in earth‐human systems

Ongoing
2016‐2020

MIROC‐INTEG (integrated terrestrial model), Yokohata et al. 2019 (Geosci Model Dev, in review)
MIROC

ClimateVISIT
Vegetation

Crop

ClimateIrrigation/dam

Yield
CroplandareaClimate

Water use

Irrigation land
Water demand

H08

Cropland area [ratio]
SSP3 RCP85
SSP2 RCP26

LanduseTeLMO

climateEcosystem

PRYSIBI2
Croplandarea

GHG
emission
NEP

Demands

Water resources

Economics
AIM• State‐of‐the‐art GCM is coupled to humanprocess models (water, crop, land use)
• Climate change ‐> impacts on water, food,energy ‐> land use change ‐> climate change• Large future demands (SSP3) ‐> large impacts
on water resources and land use• Coupling of ESM – IAM to investigate theinteractions of earth‐human systems(contributing to AIMES project in Future Earth)