IEEJ: April 2010

Country ReportonEnergy Security & Power Crisis
JICA Training Course on “Energy Policy (A)”By

Arshad Maqsood Malik, Chief (Energy) Planning Commission
Ashfaq Ahmad Sheikh, Dy Registrar Pakistan Engineering Council

IEEJ: April 2010

Sequence of Presentation
Pakistan at Glance
Energy Security
•••
•
•



Power Shortages & Current Energy Situation•••



Situation Analysis
Energy Resource Potential
Energy Security Plan Objectives(2005-30)
Projected Supply Demand Analysis and to meet the gap
Achievements of Security Plan

Existing Supply & Demand Situation
Generation Capability (hydel & thermal )and its Analysis
Circular Debt in Energy SectorConclusion

3

IEEJ: April 2010

Pakistan ‐ Geographical Location

IEEJ: April 2010

Pakistan at a Glance•

Sixth most populous country- Estimated population in 2010 is over 169 million.

•It occupies a crossroads position between South Asia, Central Asia and theMiddle East•

It has a 1,046 kilometres (650 mi) coastline along the Arabian Sea and Gulf ofOman in the south .

•Bordering Afghanistan and Iran in the west, India in the east and China in thenortheast. Tajikistan also lies very close, separated by the narrow Wakhan
Corridor .

•Semi-industrialized economy which mainly encompasses textiles, chemicals,
food processing, agriculture and other industries

5

IEEJ: April 2010

Malam – Jaba, SwatIEEJ: April 2010

Shigar Valley, Sakadu, Gilgit-Baltistan

IEEJ: April 2010

Noor Mahal Bawalpur-1872

IEEJ: April 2010

Rawal Dam -Islamabad

IEEJ: April 2010

Need For Energy Security• Energy plays an important role in the national economy.
• Energy is the economic engine for growth.
• Sustainable, safe and secure energy supplies areessential.
• Energy supplies at affordable price

Access to low cost energy has become essentialfunction of modern economics.

10

IEEJ: April 2010

Energy Security Threats• Un-even distribution of energy supplies led to significant
vulnerabilities.
• Political instability of several energy producing countries,manipulation of energy supply.
• Attacks on energy sources and supply infrastructures.
• Accidents and natural disasters.
• Limited supplies, un-even distribution and rising cost ofenergy.
11

IEEJ: April 2010

Energy Security Threats

Cont…

• Oligopoly or monopoly of suppliers, cartel of countries
and single energy super power.
• Sabotage of energy resources and infrastructure throughterrorism or warfare.
• New threats to energy security emerged in the form of
increased pace of industrialization in the countries likeChina.

12

IEEJ: April 2010

Situation Analysis• Pakistan lacks integrated national energy security plan up till 2005.
• Low per capita energy consumption with only 14 million British
Thermal Unit (MMBTU) as compared to 92 MMBTU for Malaysiaand 514 MMBTU for Japan.
• Per capita energy consumption is a key development indicators of“quality of life” of the population.
• Demand suppression strategy has been used which hasperpetuated unavailability of energy.
• Unavailability of sustained and affordable energy to industry which
has suppressed economic growth and created declining tendency
for industrial investment in Pakistan.
13

IEEJ: April 2010

Energy Policies• Presently seven policies related to energy sector are in place or beingupdated.
• Liquefied Natural Gas(LNG) Policy-2006• Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)-2006• Natural Gas Allocation & Management Police-2005• Petroleum Policy -2009• Policy for Power Generation Projects-2002• Pakistan Renewable Development Policy-2006• National Policy for Coal Development-2010(Inprogress)

To meet 21st Century challenges, anIntegrated Energy Policy is essential.
14

IEEJ: April 2010

Pakistan Primary Energy Mix (%age)
1995

2004

(36.34 MTOE)(50.8 MTOE)
Nuclear,0.03

Hydel, 15
Coal, 6Coal, 6.5

Nuclear, 0.8

Oil, 42NaturalGas, 37

Hydel, 12.7

Renewable,0Natural Gas,
50Renewable,0Oil, 30

Source:Pakistan Energy Year book15IEEJ: April 2010

Pakistan Primary Energy Mix (%age)
2008(62.9 MTOE)

Gas
Import, 0Coal, 9.2

Hydel,
10.9
Nuclear,
1.2

Oil, 30.5
GasLocal, 47.5

LPG, 0.7

Renewable, 0Source:Pakistan Energy Year book
16

IEEJ: April 2010

Energy Mix in Power Generation (%age)
COAL
0%
OIL
29%

1%

OIL
16%

1995

COAL
0%
HYDRO
34%

HYDRO
42%

GAS
27%

Renewable
1%

NUCLEAR

2004

NUCLEAR
2%

GAS
48%

1%

Renewable
0%

2008
COAL
5%
OIL
19%

HYDRO
32%

NUCLEAR2%

Source:Pakistan Energy Year book

GAS
40%Renewable
2%17

IEEJ: April 2010

Energy Security Plan Objectives (2005-30)• Maximum utilization of indigenous resources (coal, gas,hydel, nuclear and renewable) to meet the growing
demand on a sustained and affordable basis thereby
providing energy security, sovereignty and sustainability.

• Promotion of R&D for improvement in energy efficiency
and conservation and development of energy efficient
appliances.

• Improve quality of consumer services and creatingcompetitive environment to solicit maximum private sector
participation.
18IEEJ: April 2010

Energy Security Plan Objectives

Cont…

• To improve the strategic oil reserves from 20 days to 45days.

• Integrated coal mining & power generation and coalgasification to increase the indigenous coal share in theenergy mix i.e. upto 20% in 25 years plan and lay thefoundation for future share to go up to 50%.

• Reduce dependence on imported oil through accelerated
exploitation of indigenous resources.

• Resort to import of natural gas and LNG through multiple
sources on best possible terms if indigenous resources
fall short to maintain GDP growth.
19IEEJ: April 2010

Energy Security Plan Objectives

Cont…

• Maximize indigenization of design and manufacturingof Power Market Equipment (PME) to minimize capital
cost and O&M expenses.
• Facilitate establishment of refineries and petrochemicalindustry based on coal, gas and oil.
• Promotion of nuclear and renewable/alternate energy
sources (wind, solar) to have 10% share in energy mix
in 25 years.
• Promote human resource development to ensure
availability of required manpower to achieve Plan
objectives.
20

IEEJ: April 2010

Ultimate Energy Resource Potential Estimates
Hydrocarbon
ResourceCategory

Ultimate/Provedestimates

Level Of
Production

27bill*/300 mill

22.6 M.Barrels(1.1%)(7.5%)Natural Gas

8.0*/0.8 TCM

113 MCMD(Cubic meters)(10%)(0.01%)

185/3.3 billion tons

3.3 M. Tons

(1.8%)(0.1%)

56,721 MW(IdentifiedPotential)

6,459 MW (12%)(29,853 GWh)(Installed capacity)

Oil (barrels)

Coal (Tones)
Power (Hydel)

Power (Wind)

43,000 MW(Identified Potential)

Source: Energy Security Plan-2005-30, Planning Commission

Level OfConsumption(2009)
80.0 M. barrels
113 MCMD
6.1 M. Tons

83,755 GWh(Total Electricity
Generation)(First 50 MW inprogress)
21

IEEJ: April 2010

Pakistan’s Hydropower Potential
Sr. No.

River/ TributaryPower (MW)1.

Indus River

37780

2.

Tributaries of Indus (Northern Areas) & NWFP

6006

Sub Total (1+2)

43786

3.

Jhelum River

3143

4,

Kunhar River

1435

5.

Neelum River & its Tributaries

1844

6.

Poonch River

397
Sub Total (3+4+5+6)

6819

7.

Swat River & its Tributaries

2371

8.

Chitral River & its Tributaries

2282

Sub Total (7+8)

4653

9.

Schemes below 50 MW on Tributaries

1055

10.

Schemes below 50 MW on Canals

408

Sub Total (9+10)

TOTAL

1463

56721
22

IEEJ: April 2010

Wind Energy Survey - Potential• Based on the survey, potential areas for installing
wind power farms have been identified.
• These areas having coverage of 9700 sq. km in Sindh
have a gross wind power potential of 43,000 MW.
(Gross Potential of the Area corresponding to 25% capacity Factor =9749x4.5=43871
MW)• Keeping in view the area utilization constrains etc. theexploitable electric power potential of this area is about
11,000 MW. Exploitable potential (25%of the Area)=11000MW• Northern Areas Survey is still under progress• Solar Energy Potential is huge which is still to be tapped
Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department

IEEJ: April 2010

INDIGENOUS SUPPLY PROJECTIONS

MTOE

160

Nuclear

140120Gas(Anticipated)

MTOE

10080

Hydel

Gas(Committed)

CoalRenewabl
e60
40
2002005OIL
GAS (Committed)
GAS (Anticipated)
COAL
RENEWABLEHYDEL
NUCLEARTOTALOIL2010

2005
3.62
22.30
1.00
2.30
0.00
9.24
0.73
39.29

2015

2010
2.20
29.93
7.85
7.40
0.84
11.03
0.69
59.94

2020

2015
2.18
20.22
6.68
14.81
1.60
16.40
4.81
66.70

2020
2.20
11.81
13.82
24.77
3.00
21.44
4.81
81.85

2025

2025
2.20
7.29
18.34
38.28
5.58
30.5
8.24
110.432030

2030
2.20 (1.4%)
7.29 (4.7%)
12.35 (8.0%)
68.65 (44.6%)
9.25 (6.0%)
38.93 (25.3%)
15.11 (9.8%)
153.78 (100%)24

IEEJ: April 2010

ENERGY SUPPLY DEMAND GAP
Demand

400
350
300
250
200

Indigenous
SupplyImported Oil

Gap

150
1005002005

2010

2015

Total Indg.
INDIGENOUS SUPPLIESIMPORTED OIL
IMPORTED COAL
GRAND TOTALDEMAND
GAP

2005
39.38
14.66
1.00
54.04
53.78
0.00

2020

Imported Oil

2010
59.94
18.80
2.00
80.74
79.55
0.81

2015
66.70
30.33
2.00
99.03
122.96
25.93

2025

Gap
2020
81.85
43.27
2.00
127.12176.6351.51

2025
110.4355.73
2.00
168.16255.37
89.21

2030
MTOE
2030
153.7963.55
2.00
219.34361.47144.13

Note: Greater explorations as proposed should result in increased indigenous supplies and narrow
the demand-supply gap. The dependence on imported energy would accordingly go down and25
timely adjustment for import of fuel taken to reduce outflow of foreign exchange.

IEEJ: April 2010

ENERGY GAP COVERAGE STRATEGY

MTOE

400350rt 4Impo

300

MTOE

250

rt
Impo

Demand3200

Import-2150

Imported oil

Import-1
100

Indigenous Supplies

50( Including Nuclear, Hydel, Renewable, Coal, Oil & Gas)

0
2005

2010

DemandSUPPLY
DEMANDGAP
Gas Import-1
Gas Import-2
Gas Import-3
Gas Import-4

Import-4

2015

Import-3
2005
54.04
54.05
-----

2020

Import-2
2010
76.19
79.40
(3.21)
3.0
----

2025

Import-1

2015
98.66
120.17(21.51)
15.6
5.0
---

Imported oil2020
127.11
177.34(50.23)
15.6
27.0
5.0
--

2025
168.16255.37(87.21)
15.6
27.0
27.0
15.0

2030

Supply2030
220.37361.31(140.94)
15.6
27.0
27.0
27.0
26

IEEJ: April 2010

Power Generation Plan (2005-30)
M.W
Years
Existing(2005)

Nuclear Hydel

Coal

Renewable

Oil

Gas

Total

Cumulative

400

6460

160

180

6400

5940

19540

-

1260

900

700

160

4860

7880

27420

2010-15

900

7570

3000

800

300

7550

20120

47540

2015-20

1500

4700

4200

1470

300

12560

24730

72270

2000

5600

5400

2700

300

22490

38490

1107602025-30

4000

7070

6250

3850

300

30360

51830

162590Total:8800

32660 19910

97007760 83760 162590

Addition:2010

2020-25

Note: KANNUP to be retired in 201927

IEEJ: April 2010

Projected Hydel Power Projects (2005-30)

Years

MW

CAPACITYCUMULATIVE

EXISTING (2005)(Including Ghazi Barotha)

6,460

6,460

ADDITION 2010

1,260

7,700

ADDITION 2010-15

7,570

15,300ADDITION 2015-20

4,700

20,000ADDITION 2020-25

5,600

25,600ADDITION 2025-30

7,070

32,70028

IEEJ: April 2010

New Hydro Power Projects (2005-30)
2010
Public2015
Private/BOT2020
PublicPehur

19 Neelum Jhelum969 Basha

Alai Khwar

121 Swat Cascade469

Duber Khwar

130 Suki Kinari

Small/Low
Head Hydel
655 Total

Khan Khwar

72 Taunsa

120

Malakand-III
Jinnah Barrage
Keyal Khwar
Golen Gol
Private/BOT
New Bong Hydro
PowerRajdhani PowerProject
Matiltan Distt Swat
Kotli Hydro Power
Project
Gulpur Hydro
Project
Small/ Low HeadHydel
Total

81 Munda
96 Private
130 Kohala
106 Public
Kalabagh
Small/ Low
79
Head Hydel

740

132 Total:

MW

2025
PublicSmall/Low
4500
Head Hydel

2030
PublicSmall/Low
200
2400
Head Hydel

200 Bunji Dam

5400 Dasu

4700 Total

5600 KarotPartind
AkhoriTotal

3700
240
1336007073

740
3600
1007573849760501257

29

IEEJ: April 2010

Progress on Hydropower Plans (2010)
Capacity(MW)No. Status

1Hydel Stations in Operation

6,444

2

Under Construction

1,505

3

Ready for Construction

4,689

4

Project under Feasibility Studies

24,341

Total

36,97930

IEEJ: April 2010

Projected Coal Power Projects (2005-30)(MW)
Years

CAPACITYCUMULATIVE

EXISTING (2005)

160160ADDITION 2010

900

1,060

ADDITION 2010-15

3,000

4,060

ADDITION 2015-20

4,2008,260

ADDITION 2020-25

5,400

13,660ADDITION 2025-30

6,250

19,910Mainly based on Thar, Lakhra and Sonda Jherak
31

IEEJ: April 2010

Projected Renewable Power Projects (2005-30)
CAPACITYYears

CUMULATIVE
MW

EXISTING (2004-05)

180

ADDITION 2010

700880ADDITION 2010-20

2270

3150

ADDITION 2020-30

6550

9700

NEW SOLAR WIND POWER PROJECTS (CAPACITY IN MW)
2010
WIND/
SOLAR / OTHERS

2020

2030

WIND/WIND/
700
2270
6550
SOLAR /OTHERSSOLAR /OTHERS

Additional availability through Solar products development to minimize energy imports
32

IEEJ: April 2010

Achievements of Energy Security Plan (2005-10)
 The targets set in the Energy Security Plan for five years2005-10) could not be fully accomplished Against the target of 1,260 MW of hydel power, the progress
was very slow and only 536 MW of projects will be completedby 2011.
 The plan for coal based power generation was 900 MW.
However, it is expected that 300 MW will be added in 201213 and 2,440 MW by year 2015.

33

IEEJ: April 2010

Achievements of Energy Security Plan

Cont…

 The Plan for renewable energy was 700 MW . However, it isexpected that 320 MW from wind will be added by 2011-12
and 1070 MW up to 2014-15.
 The project import of gas from Iran has been delayed by 3-4years. Gas Sale Purchase Agreement (GSPA) in December
2007 was initialed; still many aspects to be finalized.
 The plan envisages the import of LNG up to 2009 and now
is expected to be commissioned in next two to three years.

34

IEEJ: April 2010

Power Crises

35

IEEJ: April 2010

Electricity Supply & Demand Position(2007-08)

YEAR
2007-08

Jul

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec JanFeb Mar Apr May JunTotal
DemandDEMAND 17675 17681 17873 16218 14537 14653 14994 14689 15620 16958 18196 19100

19100

SUPPLY 13974 13978 14130 12821 11493 11584 11854 11613 12349 13407 14386 15100

15100

3701 3703 3743 3397 3044 3069 3140 3076 3271 3551 3810 4000

4000

Deficit

Note: The total installed capacity is 19,420 MW.
36

IEEJ: April 2010

Transmission & Distribution Losses and Theft
DISCO
LESCO
GEPCO
FESCO
IESCO
MEPCO

Transmission
Losses (%)

6.6%

Distribution
Losses (%)
13.02
1110.811.5
16.8

PESCO+TESCO

34.5

HESCO
QESCO
Total WAPDA
KESC
Expected

31.8
21.5
2429.0

5.1%
Total: 7 – 8 %Areas with greater
private industrial load

The high losses need to be reduced.
i) Up-gradation of transmission & distribution system; ii) improvement in recovery in Electricity
consumption bills

IEEJ: April 2010

Existing Generation Capacity and Supply Position• Higher thermal generation pushed the tariff upwards creating
financial difficulties for the public and the Government.

38

IEEJ: April 2010

Peak Demand vs. Generation Capability 2004-05 to 2008-09(MW)yapacit
Cdell
Insta)KESC

Generation Capability

dplanneAc
curityeS
ygrin EneGE Rental

MalakandHydel
AlstomRental

Attock Gen

Actual InstalledCapacity
Transition Point

Peak Demand Trend
200405tion Pngncludii(50lan 20

200506

Peak Demand

Generation Capability Trend
200607200708200809

Oil Price Hike
Source: GM (Planning), NTDCIEEJ: April 2010

Seasonal Variation in Peak Demand 2004-05 to 2008-09(MW)

2008-09

Increase in 2008-09
over 2007-08

Reduction in 2008-09
over 2007-08
Suppressed Demand ?

2007-08

2006-072005-06
2004-05

Source: GM (Planning),NTDCIEEJ: April 2010

Seasonal Variation in Generation Capability
2004-05 to 2008-09(MW)
Increase in 2008-09 over 200405

Decrease in 2008-09 over
2004-05

2005-06
2006-07

58-07-004
200208-09
200

Source: GM (Planning), NTDCIEEJ: April 2010

Seasonal Variation of Hydel Generation (2007-08)

Total

Total

TarbelaEquivalent fuel-based
generation required

Ghazi Barotha

ManglaSource: GM (Planning), NTDCIEEJ: April 2010

Seasonal Variation in Generation from GENCOs
2004-05 to 2008-09(GWh)

2008-0905
2004-7-006
208-0
702006
5020

Reduced Generation in 2008-09
compared to 2004-05

Source: GM (Planning), NTDCIEEJ: April 2010

Seasonal Variation in Generation from IPPs
2004-05 to 2008-09
(GWh)

9-008
208-00720

Increased Generation in 2008-09
compared to 2004-05

2006-072004-056-05020

Source: GM (Planning), NTDCIEEJ: April 2010

Electricity Generation - Capacity Factors WAPDA/ NTDC

Capacity Factor (%)

No. ofPlants

Capacity(MW)2005-06

2006-072007-08

Hydro

14

6,444

54%

56%

51%

IPPs

17

5,923

53%**

63%

64%***

PEPCO

10

4,779

54%

52%

49%

Nuclear

1

325

76%

68%

86%

Total

42

17,471

54%

57%*

56%*

Type

*

Had this been 70%, load-shedding would not be so severe.

** Due to lower demand?

*** Due to fuel shortage?

There is a need to improve the Capacity Factors.
Incentive bonus related to production is one of the solutions.

IEEJ: April 2010

Present Crisis of Circular Debt•

Low availability of water causes less cheap hydel power
generation and thermal generation make the power tariff higher.

•

Exceptional surge in oil prices in 2008 trading goes up from US$ 50 per barrel to US $ 147 per barrel. (Subsidized +Government pick up subsidy from own resource).

•Government subsidies and cross subsidies and non payment toproducers on time.

•High distribution losses erode profitability of distribution
companies and result into non-payment to generation companies
including Independent Power Producers (IPPs).
46

IEEJ: April 2010

Circular Debt in the Energy Sector
Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) in-ability to payIPPs.

IPPs have to pay to Pakistan State Oil (PSO) for furnace oilon a regular basis.

PSO have to make payments to refineries and productimports on regular basis.

The situation becomes even more complex when thegovernment increases the power tariff to narrow the deficit,
however with this the pilferage/losses goes up

Due to non-payments to IPPs, GENCOs results in less47
generation and causes power crisis

IEEJ: April 2010

Short Term Arrangements-Energy Crisis

 To cover the acute shortage 2624 MW wereplanned to manage through Rental Power
Generation.
 High tariff and political repercussions delayed
this arrangement.
 2624 MW was to be commissioned in 2009, now
will be online by end of 2010.

48

IEEJ: April 2010

Rental Power Plants

Source: Asian Development Bank Report 2010.

49

IEEJ: April 2010

Rental Power Plants

Source: Asian Development Bank Report 2010.

Cont….

50

IEEJ: April 2010

Conclusion• Energy Security Plan targets could not be
accomplished in time.
• Political issues and provincial harmony• Inefficiencies in energy sector including
technical and management in public andprivate sectors both.
• Unavailability of funds.
• Law and order situation in the country.
51

IEEJ: April 2010

52
Contact:report@tky.ieej.or.jp