Implications of carbon reduction targets for energy
systems development:
Case of selected South East Asian countries
Ram M. Shrestha, Migara Liyanage, Wongkot WongsapaiCharles O.P. Marpaung and Phan M.Q. Binh
Asian Institute of Technology
Thailand10th AIM International Workshop
10-12 March 2005
Tsukuba, Japan1

Presentation Outline
AIM related activities at AITComparative analysis of selected South East AsianCountries on implications of carbon reduction targets
in energy systems development
IntroductionPrimary Energy Supply

Environmental Implications

Conclusions

10th AIM International Workshop
Tsukuba, Japan

2

AIM related activities at AIT

3

Models and countries coveredTypes of models used: AIM/Enduse AIM/Local
 AIM/CGECountries covered: Thailand Vietnam
 Sri Lanka
 Indonesia

10th AIM International Workshop
Tsukuba, Japan4

Issues Analyzed
AIM Models Countries
I. Enduse

All

Issues analyzed

For all countries (Indonesia, Sri Lanka, Thailand andVietnam):
Implications of CO2 and SO2 emission reduction targets
Implications of carbon tax and sulfur tax

Country Specific:

Energy, environmental and cost implications of limitations on
natural gas availability in Thailand
Energy and environmental implications of biomass use forcooking and electricity generation in Sri Lanka
Analysis of biofuel in transport sector in Thailand
Analysis of selected policy issues in transport sector (ie.
Emission charge) of Bangkok (For RISPO Project)
II. Local

III. CGE

Thailand

Carbon tax and sulfur tax on energy systems

Vietnam

CO2 and SO2 emission reduction targets

ThailandImplications of C-tax on Thai economy (Preliminary)
10th AIM International Workshop
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Implications of carbon reduction targetsfor energy systems development6Introduction
Countries covered: Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam

Study period: 2000 to 2030

Scenarios considered: Base Case CO2 Emissions Reduction Targets:¾ 5% (ER5)¾10% (ER10)

Reduction from the base case during 2010-2030¾15% (ER15)

10th AIM International Workshop
Tsukuba, Japan

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GDP, Total primary energy supply and CO2
emissions of selected countries in 2002
CO2Total PrimaryPopulation GDP (billionEmissions
EnergyCountry(million)
95US$)(Mton)
Supply (Mtoe)
Indonesia
212
224
156
303
Thailand62
185
83
179
Vietnam
80
33
4357
China
1280
1208
1229
3270
India
1049517538
1016
Japan
127
5715
517
1207
Korea
48681
203
451
Asia*
1988
185711842257* Excludes China and Japan

EnergyIntensity
Emissions
TPES/GDPIntensity
CO2/GDP (kg- (toe/1000US$)CO2/95US$)
1.35
0.70
0.97
0.45
1.71
1.28
2.71
1.02
1.97
1.04
0.21
0.09
0.66
0.30
1.22
0.64

Source: IEA, 2004

Among the 3 South-East Asian countries under the study:
Emissions intensity is lowest in ThailandEnergy intensity is highest in Vietnam
10th AIM International Workshop
Tsukuba, Japan8

Emissions Intensity (Index: 1971=1)

CO2 Intensity (CO2 per GDPMER)
2.5
21.5
1

0.50
1971

1975

1979

IndiaJapanThailand
OECD TotalChina

1983

1987

1991

1995

1999

Indonesia
Korea
Vietnam
Asia (excluding China & Japan)

Source: IEA, 2004



CO2 intensity: Relatively high in Indonesia and Thailand.
 Increasing in all 3 countries (Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam).
10th AIM International Workshop
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I. Effects on Primary Energy
Requirement

10Primary Energy Supply during 2000-2030 in the base case

10Primary Energy Supply, Mtoe

9Index (2000=1)

8765Y2000
Indonesia: 118

Y2030276Thailand:

66251

Vietnam:

17155

432
102000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

Year
Thailand

VietnamIndonesia

10th AIM International Workshop
Tsukuba, Japan

11Primary Energy Supply Structure in Base caseFrom 2000 to 2030:
Indonesia,
 Coal:15 to 21% Nat.: gas
8.9 to 9.2%
 Oil:
50 to 53%
 Biomass:
19 to 6%

100%
80%
60%
40%
20%

2000
Biomass
Natural gas
Primary Electricity

2030
Coal
Oil
NuclearVietnamThailandIndonesia

VietnamThailandIndonesia

0%

Thailand, Coal:17 to 34%
 Nat. gas:
23 to 29%
 Biomass:
18 to 5%
 Oil:41 to 30%
Vietnam, Biomass:
5 to 18 % Coal:30 to 15%
 Oil:
43 to 41%
 Nat. gas remain constant at 12%

10th AIM International Workshop
Tsukuba, Japan12Changes in Primary Energy Supply Structure due toEmission Reduction Targets
Vietnam100-10-20

Biomass

Coal

Gas

ER5ER10Oil

ER15

ER5ER10ER15

Fuel substitution in ER:

Thailand

Percentage Change in the Fuel Typecompared to base year during 20102030

20.0(20.0)(40.0)(60.0)

PrimaryElectricity

20Oil

30

Naturalgas

40

100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0

Coal50

Biomass

60

Change in fuel typecompared to basecase
during 2010-2030 (%)

Percentage Change in the Fuel Typecompared to base year during 20102030

Indonesia80

Indonesia:
Coal and oil to biomass and gas

Thailand:ER5: coal to biomass
ER10 & 15: coal to biomass & nat. gas

Vietnam:
ER5: oil, natural gas to primary electricity
ER10 & 15: coal, oil, natural gas to biomass andprimary electricity

60
40
200-20-40

Biomass

Coal

Gas-60-80

ER5ER10ER15

Oil

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Energy Import Dependency (EID)
Fuel Import Dependency (%)

10090

There are no energy imports inIndonesia

Base case: EID increases rapidly from 46% in2000 to 86% in 2030 Thailand
due to growing energy demandand inadequate domestic
resources.

ER cases:
 EID decreases from 74% in basecase to 68% in ER5 in Thailand
due to increased domestic
biomass use and increases to73% in ER15, due to increased
use of imported natural gas.

80
7060
50
4030201002000

2005

2010

2015

ThailandFuel Import Dependency (%)

2020

2025

2030

Vietnam

80706050


40051015

EID decreases in Vietnam to 49%
in ER15 due to increased use ofbiomass and primary electricity.

Emissions Reduction Target

ThailandVietnam

10th AIM International WorkshopTsukuba, Japan14

Role of Renewable Energy Technologies in ThailandIn base case, the share of
Renewable Energy Technologies(RETs) will reduce from 20% in
2000 to 6% in 2030.

In 2030, the RETS share
increases from 6% in base caseto about 12% in ER cases.

The RETs share falls over time
as agricultural residue available
would be fully used.

Plantation based biomass is also
used in ER casesThailand

RETs Share (%)

2520
1510502000

2005

2010
Base

2015
ER52020

ER102025

2030

ER15

10th AIM International Workshop
Tsukuba, Japan15

Role of Renewable Energy Technologies in Indonesia
and Vietnam
Vietnam RETs:
 Increase from 16% in 2000 to 28% in 2030 in base case due
to increase in hydro power generation.
 Have an increasing contribution to ER
 Plantation based biomass is selectedIndonesia RETs:
 Decrease from 19% in 2000 to 6% in 2030 in base case
 Increase the RETs share from 6% in base case to 9% in
ER15 in 2030).

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II. Environmental Implications

17

CO2 Emissions in Base case
Total Emissions (million ton)

800
700

AAGR of CO2 emissions during
2000–2030:

600

Indonesia: 3.5% (281 to 758 Mton)

500
400
300

Thailand: 5.1% (163 to 726 Mton)

200
100
0
2000

2005

2010
Indonesia

2015
Thailand

2020

2025

Vietnam

2030

Vietnam: 7.7% (13 to 121 Mton)

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Sectoral Contribution to CO2 Emissions
100%



80%
60%
40%
20%

Indonesia
Agriculture
Industrial

ThailandCommercial
Residential

2030

2015

2000

2030

2015

2000

2030

2015

2000

0%

VietnamPowerTransport• Transport sector is the largest
contributor in Thailand andVietnam by 2030
• Similarly, Industry sector inIndonesia

From 2000 to 2030:
Indonesia,
 Power:
27 to 29%
 Industry: 31 to 36 %
 Transport: 31 to 21%
Thailand, Power: 36 to 31%
 Industry:
20 to 24%
 Transport: remain unchanged at 36%
Vietnam, Power:
22 to 19%
 Industry:
28 to 36%
 Transport:
36 to 38%

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Sectoral Contribution to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Reductions
During 2000 - 2030
Indonesia

Industrial, 36

Sectoral CO2 reductions in
ER15 compared to base caseduring 2010-2030 :Power, 64ThailandIndonesia: 64% frompower & 36% fromIndustrialThailand: 78% from power,
20% from Industrial and2% from transportVietnam: 66% from power,
26% from transport

Transport,2Industrial, 20

Power, 78

Vietnam
Transport,
26

Industrial,
3

Commercial,5Power, 66

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Reduction during 2010-2030
Compared to the Base case(%)

SO2 reduction under CO2 ER targets

5040



% SO2 reduction largest inThailand

At ER15, SO2 is reduced by 41%
in Thailand and by 14% inIndonesia.

30
20100-10051015ER target
Indonesia

Thailand

Vietnam

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Reduction during 20102030 Compared to theBase case (%)

NOx reduction under CO2 ER targets

1412



Indonesia has highest NOx
reduction at ER10 and ER15.

At ER15 NOx was reduced by
13% in Indonesia, 9% in
Thailand and 6% in Vietnam.

1086420051015

ER target
Indonesia

Thailand

Vietnam

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Conclusions
Biomass produced on a sustainable basis play a key role inCO2 emissions reduction in all 3 countriesThe power sector will have the highest contribution to ER in
all 3 countries (78% in Thailand, 66% in Vietnam and 64%in Indonesia)

Availability of biomass is found to limit its role at higher
CO2 reduction targets in ThailandSO2 emissions fall significantly in CO2 ER cases in Indonesiaand ThailandIndonesia and Thailand would enjoy a higher percentage ofNOx reduction than Vietnam at ER15
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Future AIM Activities at AITMulti gas emission inventory of ThailandAIM/Enduse Model development for Cambodia and NepalAIM/Local Model development for Indonesia



Refinement of AIM/CGE model for ThailandDissemination of results

10th AIM International Workshop
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END

25

SO2 Emissions in Base caseTotal Emissions (thousand ton)


2000
1800
1600
1400

AAGR of SO2 emissions during 2000 –2030:
Indonesia: 559 to 1,543 kton (3.6%)

1200
1000
800
600

Thailand: 240 to 1,873 kton (7.1%)

400
2000
2000

2005

2010
Indonesia

2015
Thailand

2020

2025

2030

Vietnam: 80 to 645 kton (7.5%)

Vietnam

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Total Emissions (thousand ton)

NOx Emissions in Base case

5000
4500



4000
3500
3000
2500
2000

AAGR of NOX emissions during 2000
– 2030:Indonesia: 1,614 to 4,598(3.8%)

1500
1000

Thailand: 390 to 1538 kton (4.7%)

500
0
2000

2005

2010

Indonesia

2015

2020

Thailand

2025

2030

Vietnam: 80 to 722 kton (7.9%)

Vietnam

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Tsukuba, Japan27