Monitoring trends for over 75 years

Presidential Election Expectations
Joanne Hsu, PhD, Director

September 20, 2024

Throughout 2024, consumers have repeatedly expressed that2024 Presidential Election Expectations
their expectations for the economy hinge on the results of theJuly 23 - September 18
upcoming presidential election. Survey responses generally
HarrisTrump
No Difference
incorporate who, at the moment, consumers expect the next
58
president will be. Some consumers note that if their election
41 38
37 37
expectations do not come to pass, their expected trajectory of34
the economy would be entirely different. To understand the1915
relationship between the election and consumer views of theeconomy, the Surveys of Consumers have historically asked
about which candidate consumers believe would eventually win
Winner of Better for Economy Better for Personal
the election, not their preferred candidate or for whom they ExpectedElection
Finances
intended to vote (results from the previous presidential electionseason were reported on August 21, 2020). Interviews since July 23, 2024 reveal that for the 2024 election, about 58% ofconsumers expect Harris to be elected president, while 34% expect that Trump will prevail (see chart above).
Other questions asked which candidate consumers believed would be better for the economy and for their own finances.
About 41% of consumers reported that Harris would be better for the economy, compared with 38% reporting Trump; 15%of consumers believed it would make no difference. For personal finances, the two candidates are virtually tied, with 19%
believing it would make no difference. For both factors, the “no difference” shares are considerably smaller under Harrisand Trump than they were when Biden was still the nominee.
The table summarizes results split by political party and demographic characteristics. As discussed in the February 2024
report on partisan perceptions and expectations, party identification shares on the Michigan surveys are consistent withnational surveys focused on political issues. The anticipated alignment of expectations along partisan lines by Republicansand Democrats is clearly visible in our data. Notably, Independents, who will cast deciding votes in the election, are more
likely to expect a Harris win than a Trump win (57% versus 37%). They are also more likely to report that Trump is a better
candidate than Harris for the economy as well as personal finances.

Expected Presidential Election Results and Best Candidate for Economy and Personal Finances

AllParty
Democrat
Independent
Republican
Age
18-44
45-64
65 or older
Education
High school or lessSome college
College degree or more
IncomeBottom tercile
Middle tercile
Top tercile

Expected Winner of Election
HarrisTrump58
34

Best Candidate for Economy
HarrisTrump No Difference
4138
15Best Candidate for Personal Finances
HarrisTrump No Difference
3737
19895725937718333533988

1227
576
29443984

1830
1060
60
62373732

443948314439221510393545

29443829
181442526750
4230

2832514950
3216161628
30
46

46
47
32

2020
2152
57
68

38
36
2936
4149

3940
35

1715
1434
41
40

36
38
37

211821

Data collected between July 23 and September 18, 2024; "don't know" responses omitted© The University of Michigan, 2024. All rights reserved.

Monitoring trends for over 75 years

Substantial shares of Independents report no differences between the two candidates for these factors (27% for the economy
and 30% for personal finances). Younger consumers were around twice as likely as middle-age and older consumers toreport no difference between the two candidates for the economy and personal finances. These “no difference” responses
may reflect a belief that the president has little influence over the economy, or that the two candidates have failed to convince
these consumers that their approach to the economy is better than their opponent’s. In any case, their economic expectations
are unlikely to be driven by election factors.
Consumers under the age of 45 as well as those 65 and older preferred Harris over Trump as the better candidate for theeconomy and personal finances. Middle-aged consumers between ages 45 and 64, in contrast, preferred Trump for the twofactors. Patterns by education and income were similar to each other. More educated or higher income groups were more
likely to expect a Harris win; they were also more likely to believe that Harris is better for the economy.
The chart below displays the relationship between the Index of Consumer Sentiment and presidential election outcomesover the last 70 years. The percentages above the chart indicate the share of the popular vote, which has deviated twice fromthe electoral college results: in 2000, when Bush won over Gore, and in 2016, when Trump won over Clinton. As discussed
in our September 2020 report on election expectations: “The pattern set from the 1950's to 2008 indicated that when theSentiment Index was near a cyclical peak, the incumbent won re-election, or the candidate from the same party as the current
president won. Conversely, when the Sentiment Index was near its cyclical trough, the incumbent presidents lost—Reagan
defeated Carter in 1980, and Clinton won over Bush in 1992.”
While the 2000 and 2016 elections may appear to be exceptions, in fact, the patterns held both years for the the popular
vote. However, both popular vote winners were defeated in the electoral college tallies. Indeed, sentiment reached an alltime historic high in 2000, when the final year of Clinton’s term began, and Gore won the popular vote. Similarly, in 2016,
sentiment was also near a cyclical peak when Obama’s second term was ending, and the Democratic nominee won thepopular vote that year as well.
Sentiment trends during this current election season bear some resemblance to 2012. The 2012 election occurred 41 months
after the end of the Great Recession, and the 2024 election will occur 43 months after the end of the pandemic recession.
With the benefit of hindsight, the 2012 election occurred when sentiment was midway between a cyclical peak and a cyclical
Consumer Sentiment and Election Outcomes
Kennedy(50%) overNixon (50%)

Index of Consumer Sentiment (Quarterly)

Eisenhower
Reelected(57%)

Nixon (43%) overHumphrey (43%)
Wallace (14%)

Johnson (61%)
over Goldwater(39%)

Carter (50%)
overFord (48%)

ReaganReelected(59%)

Reagan (51%)
over Carter (41%)
Anderson (7%)

Nixon
Reelected(61%)

Clinton (43%)
over Bush (37%)
Perot (19%)

Bush (48%)
over Gore (49%)
Nader (3%)

Bush (53%)
over Dukakis(46%)

ClintonReelected(50%)

1988

1996

Obama (53%)
overMcCain (46%)

Trump (46%)
overClinton (48%)

Obama
Reelected(51%)

BushReelected(53%)

Biden (51%)
over Trump (47%)

110

100

90

80

70

60

50
1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

19801984

1992

2000

2004

© The University of Michigan, 2024. All rights reserved.

2008

2012

2016

2020

2024

Monitoring trends for over 75 years

trough. In September 2011, sentiment hit its lowest point since the Great Recession, followed by a sharp climb the rest ofthe year. Obama’s successful re-election in 2012 came on the heels of relative stability in sentiment leading into the election.
Looking at the current cycle, sentiment hit an all-time low in June 2022 amid heightened inflation. Since then, sentimenthas been on an overall upward trajectory and is now 40% above that trough, though the second and third quarters of 2024
have seen relatively little movement. Furthermore, sentiment remains below its historical average, which suggests a
cyclical peak may not be imminent. However, sentiment has risen in recent months, even amid election uncertainty. Still,consumer expectations are subject to change as the presidential campaign comes into greater focus.
Appendix
Results are based upon 1,953 interviews conducted between July 23 and September 18, 2024. “Don’t know” and missing
responses are omitted from all figures and tables.
Question Text
The next few questions are about the upcoming Presidential election in November. Regardless of how you intend to vote,
who do you think will actually be elected President – (Donald Trump, the Republican, or Kamala Harris, the Democrat)/(Kamala Harris, the Democrat)/(Kamala Harris, the Democrat, or Donald Trump, the Republican)?
Looking ahead to the next two years or so, do you think economic conditions in the country as a whole would be better if(Trump/Harris) were elected, would economic conditions be better if (Harris/Trump) were elected, or wouldn’t it makemuch difference?
Now thinking about your (family’s) financial situation over the next two years or so, do you think that you (and your familyliving there) would be better off financially if (Trump/Harris) were elected, would you be better off financially if(Harris/Trump) were elected, or wouldn’t it make much difference?
Analagous data regarding Trump versus Biden were collected between April 21 and July 17, 2024, discussed in this special
report.
Note: This report was revised on September 25, 2024 to correct an error on the table, on row “Age 45-64.” All figures andtext of the report were unchanged in the revision.

© The University of Michigan, 2024. All rights reserved.