Benefits of a Domestic
Burning Plasma Experiment
Professor Michael Mauel
Columbia University
Community Issues Session
2002 Fusion Summer Study
July 16, 2002

Benefits of a Domestic BPX!

Any BPX should be built as part of an overall, international fusion energy
development plan, consisting of! Study and understanding of burning plasmas (BPX)! Development of attractive, low-activation, fusion energy components! Broad physics and technology research to establish the knowledge
base for an optimal power system: steady-state, high beta, at anappropriate size and cost!

A domestic BPX must be part of a modular approach to fusion
development.
! Together with the BPX, separate and medium-scale
modules/programs develop! Fusion components! Optimized steady-state confinement configurations, and! Physics and simulation tools.
! Similar to the IFE roadmaps: faster, smaller steps each “meetingspecific science and technology goals before going on to the nextstep.” The integration step “establishes a technical and cost basis forcommercial power.”Our Political “Perceptions”! The U.S. will only accelerate fusion if we participate in ITER.
! U.S. fusion can never hope to get a ~ $1B facility.
! Our political judgments may be wrong.
! (In my opinion,) our geo-political track record is poor.
! National and international politics can change quickly.

My recommendation:! Our government depends on U.S. fusion scientists for our technical judgments offusion energy development options.
! If we don’t second guess our own technical judgments, then there will be nolosers and world-wide fusion wins.

" Let’s try to evaluate the benefits of a domestic BPX within aninternational modular program without political prejudice.

Visualization
Exercise! Imagine our government really wants to accelerate fusion energy researchbecause fusion is an important, environmentally-sustainableenergy source.
…and not just because George likes Tony Blair.
! Imagine that we have no idea what ITER-FEAT really costs.
…and we have to use our own common sense to judge ITER’s cost and schedule! Imagine that we really can double the U.S. fusion budget if we propose acompelling plan for fusion energy development that builds on ouroutstanding scientific and technical progress.
…and not just because of political opportunity.
! Imagine that the U.S. is not always a steady international
partner and new Presidents may change past policies.
…even if we do have an international agreement.

Some Evidence of this “AlternateReality” Exists• Other fields of U.S. science successfully do build >$1B scale
experiments.
!
!
!
!

Astronomy —› Hubble, VLBA, NGST (2010)
Astrophysics —› Chandra
DOE/Basic energy sciences —› SNS, APS
HEP (with FERMI + D0, RHIC, SLAC, and LHC) proposes a U.S. NLC this year.

• The U.S. does change it’s mind quickly (even with international agreements).
! Japanese “Kibo” module (~ $1B) delayed/cancelled from ISS due to costoverrun! U.S. decides international Kyoto accord really isn’t such a good plan
after all! (ITER-FEAT construction would require the support of 4 administrations!)• Fusion energy science has re-established its credibility! NRC calls fusion science “easily on par” with any other field of science! New center for plasma physics established by NSF! Growing awareness/advocacy by those outside fusion for faster-pacedfusion R&D

Benefits of a Domestic Burning Plasma
Experiment(given our “alternate reality”)! Adapted from the HEPAP (Jan 2002) Long Range Plan :! The BPX will be one of the greatest scientific projects of our time, at the frontier of science andadvanced technology.
! By hosting the BPX, the U.S. would be at the center of scientific and technical activity for a greatinternational project and this important field of science.
! A healthy worldwide fusion program requires a distribution of major facilities around the globe. Itis appropriate for the next large new facility to be in the U.S.
! By offering to host the BPX, the U.S. would send a message of leadership and responsibility.
! Past investments in fusion experiments have enormously enriched society. Economic benefits
have been documented.
! Locating a BPX in the United States would allow a greater portion of our economic investment tobe recaptured through jobs and technological benefits.
" Strengthen the science and technology infrastructure for fusion energy development.
!

Congress would be able to see a real hardware during domestic site visits (instead of wall posters andweb sites).

!

There would be greater opportunities for U.S. scientific, education, and outreach for fusion energy andplasma physics.

!

(It would be “OK” to include contingency in our cost estimates.)Impact on World Fusion of a U.S.
BPX
! Burning plasma experiments would begin sooner with less risk.
! The world would see a BP research step that requires < 30 g T on site and does
not produce 30,000 tonnes of rad-waste.
! Three options for EU and Japan (There are no losers!):!

EU & JA see a vigorous, expanding U.S. program, and they decide to construct ITER-FEAT
without U.S. participation. Fusion wins! (Big time.)!

EU & JA denounce the U.S. as unreliable, rethink their MFE programs, and join a multiplemachine strategy with a VNS and a SC AT research device. Fusion wins!

!

EU & JA denounce the U.S. as unreliable, eliminate their MFE programs, and restructure their
HED Laser Programs into a fast-track IFE program. Fusion wins!

! In each case, fusion continues as a very strong and vigorous international
R&D program—containing a domestic BPX.

Back to Reality…
! The U.S. will only accelerate fusion if we participate in ITER.
! U.S. fusion can never get a ~ $1B facility.
So let’s take the ITER plunge…

### Experts Only
(Steep slopes, Sharp curves, Use Extreme Caution)

Back to Reality…
! The U.S. will only accelerate fusion if we participate in ITER.
! U.S. fusion can never get a ~ $1B facility.
While ITER-FEAT is a mature (and beautiful!) design and ITER would move us
quickly to the size-scale of a future power-plant, there still exists serious risks…
Worst case scenario:!

ITER-FEAT proves significantly more costly. Construction
drags on and on, preventing any other large experiment.
Development of low-activation fusion components
delayed. Green’s see ITER as a radioactive menace.

!

Responding to delays & cost overruns, Congress
withdraws U.S. from ITER, discrediting fusion, andcommitting all funds to CO2 sequestration!

…and Congress indicts Jerry Navratil for knowing all along that ITER would
exceed cost and schedule estimates and not speaking out loudly enough!

Summary Thoughts! Fusion significantly benefits from a domestic BPX.
! We should not get distracted by international “what ifs”. I(we?) really don’t know and can not predict the evolutionof fusion geo-politics.
! We should try to keep focused on the “Snowmass mission”:
the scientific and technical assessment of BPX options.
! We must be clear about what we know (and don’t know)
about the steps required for fusion energy development.
Our nation depends upon our technical judgments.
Attend the FESAC/Prager Panel open house: tonight
8:00pm.