Emissions Scenarios Database
Contribution for
the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Tatsuya HANAOKA
The 10th AIM International Workshop
10-12, March 2005

2005/4/19

At Ohyama Memorial Hall
National Institute for Environmental Studies
Tsukuba, Japan

1

Overview
1. Previous work on Emissions Scenarios Database
2. Classification of mitigation scenarios
3. Progress of Emissions Scenarios Database
4. Examples of quantitative analysis based on
the updated Emissions Scenarios Database.
2005/4/19

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Emissions Scenarios Database- Morita Database ◆Nakicenovic, N., Victor N. and Morita T. (1998)¾428 scenarios of global and regional GHG emissions
from 176 literature sources¾utilized for discussions in SRES

◆Rana, A. and Morita. T (2000)¾75 scenarios of global and regional GHG emissions
from 25 literature sources¾utilized for discussions in TAR
2005/4/19

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Scope of Work
◆ Update the current Emissions Scenarios Database◆ Analyze various new mitigation scenarios since TAR.
◆ Contribute for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report¾ First, classify characterization of mitigation scenarios
systematically¾ Second, analyze quantitatively on GDP, population, carbon
intensity, energy intensity and carbon tax at a regional levelin SRES 4 regional aggregations as well as at a global level.
2005/4/19

4Classifications of Mitigation Scenarios◆ Current definition of mitigation scenarios in TAR

a description and a quantified projection of how GHG emissions
can be reduced in comparison to respective baseline scenarios◆ Classifications of mitigation scenarios in TAR

concentration stabilization scenarios
emission stabilization scenarios
safe emission corridor (tolerable windows/safe landing) scenarios
other mitigation scenarios.
the categorization in TAR was only based on “climate policy goals”.
=> classify mitigation scenarios based on other characteristics.
2005/4/19

5Reclassifications of Mitigation Scenarios
To understand mitigation scenarios more systematically,mitigation scenarios can be classified based onfour key aspects:

1st aspect: scenario characteristics
2nd aspect: climate policy goals
3rd aspect: emission allocation strategies
4th aspect: mitigation measures
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1st: Scenario Characteristics
Geographicalcoverage

Time horizon
Sector scale
GHG scale

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single global scenario,
multiregional global scenario,
single regional scenario,multinational regional scenario,national scenario,z short term scenario (~ 2030),
z medium term scenario (2030 ~ 2050),
z long term scenario (2050 ~ ).
z a specific sector (energy, transport,etc.) scenario,z multisector scenario,z CO2 only scenario,z six Kyoto GHGs scenario(CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6),z all anthropogenic GHGs scenario(CO2, CH4, N2O, HFC, PFC, SF6, CFCs, HCFCs,SOx, NOx, CO, NMVOC, black carbon etc.)
7zzzzz2nd: Climate Policy Goals
Targetsettingapproach

Non-target
approach2005/4/19

concentration stabilization target,
emission stabilization target,
climate change target such as temperaturerise or sea level rise,z direct impact target such as food production
or ecosystem,z indirect impact such as economic activities,
z political target based on international
agreement such as the Kyoto Target,z political target based on multilateralagreementz national action plan,and so onz best available technologies,
z best economic technologies,
z best practicable environmental potions,and so on.
8zzz

3rd: Emission Allocation Strategies
Kyoto forever,z contraction and convergence,z intensity target,
z multi-stage approach,z widening Brazilian proposal
and so on.
Sector-wise emission z multi-sector convergence,
allocation framework z triptych approach,and so on.

Regional/nationalwise emission
allocation framework

2005/4/19

z9

4th: Mitigation Measures
Economic policy
options

Technologicalpolicy options

Socioeconomic
policy options

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subsidies,carbon tax,
z Kyoto mechanisms such as emissions
trading, joint implication and clean
development mechanism
z carbon capture and storage,z land-use change,z change of energy mix,
z improvement of energy efficiency,
z infrastructure development,
and so on.
z changes of lifestyle,z changes in the social structure,z population decline,z GDP changes
and so on.
zz

10Call for New Mitigation Scenarios
The process of Post-SRES analysis since TAR◆ Regional scale: Global, regional and national level analysis¾Global and sub-regional scenarios : HANAOKA¾National scenarios : KAWASE◆ Temporal scale: Scenarios with horizons beyond 2030
◆ Gas classifications: all anthropogenic GHGs
CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, CO,
NMVOC, SOx, NOx and Black Carbon◆ Sector classifications: Multisector scenarios

Progress:
194 new scenarios from 47 literature sources
2005/4/19
11Regional Aggregations
among SRES4, SRES9 and AR13
Tier1

Tier2

Tier3

SRES4

SRES9

AR13

CodeREF
OECD90

CodeREF

ALM

2005/4/19

FSU+EEU

CodeDescription

FSU

Former Soviet Union

EEU

Eastern Europe

WEU

OECDOECD-Europe

WEU

OECDOECD-Europe

NAM

North America

CAN

CanadaUSA

USA

ANZ

Australia, New Zealand

JPN

JapanPAS

Other Pacific Asia

SASSouth Asia

PAO
ASIA

Description

SPAPacific OECD
South Asia and Other Pacific Asia

CPA

Centrally planned Asia and China

CPA

Centrally planned Asia and China

MEA

Middle East and North Africa

MEA

Middle East and North Africa

AFR

SubSub-Saharan Africa

AFR

SubSub-Saharan Africa

LAM

Latin America and the Caribbean

LAM

Latin America and the Caribbean

12Global CO2 emission changes from baseline [%]Global CO2 emission changes from baseline

2005/4/19

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

0-10-20-30-40-50-60-70-80-90
MESSAGE (ID190_CO2:550)
MESSAGE (ID84_A2-550t)
MESSAGE (ID193_CCSlearning)
SGM (ID113_Tax:+$10)
GRAPE (ID42_CO2:550)
GRAPE (ID42_Tax:+$10)
GRAPE (ID42_Tax:+$25)
DNE21 (ID80_Tax:+$10)
MARIA (ID115_CO2:550-WRE)
GRAPE (ID43_NT)
AIM (ID97_Tax:+$10)
AIM (ID97_CO2:550-WGI)
EPPA3.0 (ID234_NEWANC)
EPPA3.0 (ID234_NEWANCIF)EPPA3.0 (ID234_NEWSTABCAPIF)
EPPA3.0 (ID235_alltr10r3)
EPPA3.0 (ID235_methane10r3)

MESSAGE (ID190_Multi:550)
MESSAGE (ID84_B2-550s)
MESSAGE (ID193_CCS)
SGM (ID113_Tax:+$25)
GRAPE (IR42_CO2:550+s)
GRAPE (ID42_Tax:+$10+s)
DNE21 (ID80_CO2:550)
DNE21 (ID80_Tax:+$25)
MARIA (ID115_CO2:550-H2)
GRAPE (ID43_NTNN)
AIM (ID97_Tax:+$25)
AIM (ID97_CO2:550-WRE)
EPPA3.0 (ID234_NEWANCCAP)
EPPA3.0 (ID234_NEWSTAB)
EPPA3.0 (ID234_NEWSTABIF)EPPA3.0 (ID235_kyot-gtr)

MESSAGE (ID84_A2-550s)
MESSAGE (ID84_B2-550t)
SGM (ID113_Tax:$100)
SGM (ID113_CO2:550)
GRAPE (ID42_CO2:550-s)
GRAPE (ID42_Tax:+$10-s)
DNE21 (ID80_Tax:$100)
MARIA (ID214_A2-FS)
GRAPE (ID43_AT)
AIM (ID97_Tax:$100)
AIM (ID97_CO2:550-MID)
EPPA3.0 (ID234_bykyotomcs)
EPPA3.0 (ID234_NEWANCCAPIF)
EPPA3.0 (ID234_NEWSTABCAP)
EPPA3.0 (ID235_allgas10r3)
EPPA3.0 (ID235_kyot-tr)

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6025-75% range
MIN mitigation
MAX mitigation40
200-20
-40
-60
-80
-100

CO2
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CH4ALM

ASIA

REF

OECD

World

ALM

REF
ASIA

OECD

World

ALM

ASIA

REF

OECD

-120
World

Emissions change from baseline in 2100 (%)

Total CO2, CH4 and N2O emission changes
from baseline in 2100

N2O
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GDP growth & Energy Intensity Improvement
under 550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios
4.0■World■World◆ALM▲ASIA◆ALM■REF
■OECD
▲ASIA
■REF
■OECD■World◆ALM▲ASIA 3.5
■REF
■OECD

annual EI improvement (2000-2100) (%/yr)

annual EI improvement (2000-2050) (%/yr)

4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

annual GDP growth (2000-2050) (%/yr)

2000 – 2050
2005/4/19

6.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

annual GDP growth (2000-2100) (%/yr)

2000 – 2100
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GDP growth & Carbon Intensity Reduction
under 550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios■World 5.0
◆ALM
▲ASIA
■REF
4.0
■OECD4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

■World■World◆ALM
▲ASIA
◆ALM
■REF
■OECD
▲ASIA
■REF
■OECD

3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

-1.0

-1.0
annual GDP growth (2000-2050) (%/yr)

2000 – 2050
2005/4/19

6.0

annual CI reduction (2000-2100) (%/yr)

annual CI reduction (2000-2050) (%/yr)

5.0

annual GDP growth (2000-2100) (%/yr)

2000 – 2100
16Carbon Intensity & Energy Intensity
under 550 ppmv Stabilization Scenarios■World◆ALM
▲ASIA
■REF
■OECD

annual EI improvement (2000-2100) (%/yr)

annual EI improvement (2000-2050) (%/yr)

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.01.0■World■World
◆ALM
▲ASIA
◆ALM
■REF
■OECD
▲ASIA
■REF
■OECD

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

0.0
-1.0

5.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

annual CI reduction (2000-2050) (%/yr)

2000 – 2050
2005/4/19

5.0-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

annual CI reduction (2000-2100) (%/yr)

2000 – 2100
17Carbon Tax & Regional CO2 mitigation rate

■World◆ALM▲ASIA600
■REF
■OECD

Carbon tax in 2100 (US$/tC)

600
Carbon tax in 2050 (US$/tC)■World■World
◆ALM
◆ALM
▲ASIA■REF▲ASIA■OECD■REF■OECD700

700

500
400300200500400
30020010010000020406080

100

CO2 reduction from baseline in 2050 (%)

2000 – 2050
2005/4/19

120020406080

100120

CO2 reduction from baseline in 2100 (%)

2000 – 210018

Cost of CO2 abatement relative tobaseline projection■World◆ALM▲ASIA■REF 80■OECDGDP loss from baseline in 2100 (%)

GDP loss from baseline in 2050 (%)■World■World
◆ALM
◆ALM
▲ASIA■REF▲ASIA■OECD■REF■OECD1001008060402006040200-20-20-20020406080100

CO2 reduction from baseline in 2050 (%)

2000 – 2050
2005/4/19120-20020406080100120

CO2 reduction from baseline in 2100 (%)

2000 – 2100
19Future Work
This study is in an intermediate stage andthere is scope for further refinement.
◆ contact as many researchers as possible in the world
and collect and clarify more detailed data
◆ collect more data from regional or national scenarios
and analyze emission reduction factors in detailat the sub-regional and national levels◆ pay attention to reduction measures for
non-CO2 emissions such as CH4, N2O, F gases etc
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