IEEJ : August 2014

Countryy Report
Energy Sector:
Tajikkistan
Mr. Najm
medinov
Tojidjidddin
ddi
3 Junee 20141

Tajikistann – Profile• Situated in Central Asia
• Former Soviet Republic• Civil war (1992-1997)• 143,000 square kilometers• BordersB dwithith Afghanistan,
Af h i t
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistanand China• 8 million population out ofwhichhi h 73% live
li ini rurallareas2

Tajikistann - Profile• Agro – industrial and mou
untainous country withmore than 72 peaks over 6,000 m, 6% covered byglaciers• GDP about 8 bln USD• Main export – aluminum anda cotton• Country is dependent on remittances – 50% GDP• The country has a great potential
pin hydropower
development It takes 8 p
development.
place in the world in termsof absolute potential and 2 place among CIS after
Russiaw produced by hydropower.
• 96 % of electricity is now
However it is underutilize
However,ed – only 5% is used3

Central Asian Poweer System (CAPS)
Current Situation

20 Years Ago• Central AsianPower System(CAPS) - One
network and one
central dispatcherf 5 countriesforti• Extensive seasonal
electricityy exchange:
gSummer hydro for
winter thermal

Breakup ofo USSR
• Shift in the country
strategy towa
ards
energy self-suufficiency• Limited finaancing forinvestment anndmaintenance•Winter electricity
deficits and utilized andspilled summer hydrosurplus• Reduced energy
securityit• Tajikistan is currently
disconnected from theCAPS• System inefficiency(high losses)• Governance issues(operational andfinancial performance,including cost recovery)

4Current Energy Po
olicy and Measures• Ministry of Energy and Wa
ater Resources isresponsible for energy secctor (policies)• State Agency on Energy Control
Cand State Utility
Enterprise “Barki Tojik”
plaw on electriccityy• No specific• Two track approach to energy reform:- Reforming domestic ene
ergy sector
sector, ee.g.,g energy
pricing, financial and gove
ernance disciplines, social
protection programs and privatepsector participation- Export oriented strategyy of electricity• Several
Sl lawslwere adopted t d andd modernizationd i ti off
existing objects are underrway for enhancing export5

Electricitty Export
The Government attachess high priority to regional
trade:• The Government has ente
ered into a 20 year powerpurchase agreement with Afghanistan in 2010 (3.5cents per kW/h).
• The Government is also exxploring potential coal-fired
power generation
poga o foro expo
poort tooo SouthSou Asia.
s a Thissoption has certain limitatio
ons given the wintershortages and associated environmental aspects.
• CASA-1000 project is undeerway, which stipulates
transmitting electricity froom Tajikistan andK
Kyrgyzstan
t tto PPakistan
ki t anndd Afghanistan
Af h i t ($1 bln)bl )6

Policies andd Measures• Development
Dlt off SHPS
SHPSs iis priority
i it byb government.
t
There is a state program underu
which 189 SHPSs
sho ld be b
shouldbuilt
ilt bby 2020
• In the long run, the goverrnment aims to build Rogun
ddam
with
ith 335 m ini heighth i htt andd 3600MW• For the short run, policies towards energy efficiency
and effectiveness are giveen priority• Along with hydropower deevelopment, government isexploring new sources of energy like coal-fired
pect.
power, solar panel, wind power,

7

Direction of policy
ptowards
renewable energy use• The government of Tajikisstan in February 2007
adopted “Comprehensive program to target thewidespread use of renewa
able energy sources, suchas the energy of small-riveers, solar, wind, biomass,and undergroundgsources for 2007-2015.”• The potential of small andd mid-size rivers of theTajikistan is greater than 30 million kW and theirannual electricity output iss about 100 billion kWh peryyear.
a Aboutbou 300 SHPSs
S Ss haave alreadyaa ady beenbbuilt.
bu• On the inflow of the river,, in the mountainous region,
it is technically possible annd economically appropriate
to build more than 1000 smalls
hydropower stations
with a power capacity ran
nging from 10 to 3000 kW.
8Progress in Engaggement of Private
Secctor• Agreement
gwith RAO/UES/ S of Russia to respectivelypyhold 25%/75% of the sha
ares in Sangtuda I• Build-Operate-Transfer (BBOT) contract with Iran atSangtuda II• Pamir Private Power Projeect continues to be asymbol of private sector pparticipation success:─ 22-24 hours of power availability in the winterperiod in a highly remo
ote area;─ Government’s continue
ed support to Pamir Energy
Company is seen as immportant
9Majorj Developm
pment Partners inEnergy Sector• ADB – Regional Power Transm
mission Nurek 500kV Switchyard,mission,Switchyard
Regional Power Interconnection (cofinanced by IsDB, OFID),
Power Rehabilitation (cofinanceed by IsDB, SECO),
SECO) Emergency
Baipaza Landslide Stabilization
Lolazor-KhKh
hatlon 220kv, SouthSouth-NorthNorth 500kv• China Eximbank – Lolazor• Government of India – Varzob HPS-1• IsDB – Sangtuda
Sangtuda-2
2, SHPPs in rural areas;• KFAED – Rehabilitation of Dusshanbe Distribution Network• KfW – Nurek Switchyard 220kV
V,• SECO - Energy Loss Reductionn, Pamir Private Power• WB - Pamir Private PowerPower, Eneergy Loss Reduction
Reduction, Energy
Emergency

JICA in Tajikistan
T• Has been active since 199
93 by providing tarining
courses for civil servants• Opened its office in 2006
• Has several programs maiinly directed on two pillars:socio economic development in Khatlon regionsocio-economic(water, agriculture and heealth sectors) anddevelopment of economic infrastructure (energy andtransportation)• Energy sector is high priorrity for JICA Tajikistan• Currently, no any ongoingg projects on energy sector
11Traditional Eneergy Sources ofTajikkistan
Fuel Resources• Coal. Predicted coal reservves in Tajikistan are estimatedto be 4-5 billion tonnes,tonnes annd industrial and prospective
reserves for coal deposits area 1 billion tonnes. It isnecessary to use the latestt extraction and raw material
processing technology in order to avoid harming the localecology.
gy resources of Tajikistan, oil• Oil and Gas. Of the energ
and gas makes up around 3%.
3% Assumed depths ofb
are 6000 meters or more.
deposits of productive oil beds
Hydro resources:• Potential resources of Tajikkistan make up more than 527
billion kWh,kWh currently 5% iss realizedrealized.
12Energy Capacityy – Supply Side• The capacity of the energy system of Tajikistan is5,070MW. Of that, therma
al electric power plants
represent only 320MW• Hydropower production iss highly dependent on rates
of stream flows (all the exxisting reservoirs provide
seasonal and not cumulattive water storage)• FuelF l availability
il bilit att thermath
all power plants
l t also
l varies.
i
Compared to 1991, production of oil dropped by afactor of 2
2.6,
6 gas by 5
5.7.
7 T
The consumption of natural
gas decreased four-fold, anda coal consumption
decreased eleveneleven-fold.
fold• The electricity production varies between 13 and 18
billion kWh annually.
annually13

M i HPP
Main
HPPs
Item

Capacity MW

N k HPP
Nurek

3000

Baypaza HPP

600

SSangtuda
t d – 1 HPP

670

Sangtuda – 2 HPP

220

Golovnaya HPP

240

Perepadnaya HPP

29,5

Sentralnaya HPP

15,114

Energy Demannd and Supply• Over the last decade, Tajikistan had an annual electricity
demand of between 16,000
0 and 17,000 GWh• However, in recent years th
he demand has increased up
to 19-21 GWh due to expan
nsion of the population andnew buildings and installatio
ons.
• The aluminum smelter TALC
CO accounts for 40% ofdemand. The second larges
g st customer ggroupp is theresidential sector at 44%.
present,, the deficit of ele
ectricityy during
g the fall-winter• At pperiod is 4-4.5 billion kWh. During this period, there is a
pp y moode,, and that has a significant
glimited electricityy supply
impact on the economy of thet country. During thesummer time, the country has
h the same amount ofexcessive electricity supply
15

El t i it Suppl
ElectricitySuppS plyl anddD
Demandd16

Monthly
M thl DemandDdbby SSector,t
2009

17

TAJ Actual Export and Losses 200020002008

Source: Coordinating Dispatch Center (CDC)

18

Generattion Gap• As it is evident, Tajikistan’s power system cannot
currently
tl meett ddemand,d leleading
di tot significant
i ifi
t
shortages in winter monthhs. The unmet demand wasestimated by WB at 22,700700
0 GWh (2012) at theconsumer level. Taking intto account losses duringtransmission and distributtion of electricity
electricity, the deficit
at the generation level am
mounts to about 3,100 GWhduring winter• Winter deficit/Summer surplus issues:• (i) lowlefficiency
ffi i
off exist
i tingtit
assets;t• (ii) lack of trading arrangements with neighbors; and• (iii) lack of investment forr alternative sources (coal,gas and additional hydroelectric power)
19

Implications of Eleectricity Shortage• The environment for enerrgy development inTajikistan has changed drramatically since
independence, with very strongs
growth in demand
but loss of sources of therrmal supplies during winter.
• About 70% of the populattion currently suffers fromblackouts during the winteer (get only about 2 to 6
hours of electricity), imposing direct costs in termsof: (a) foregone revenue fromf
economic activity; (b)additional
addo a costs
os s due
du too damage
ag too equipment
qu panda dinterruption of business processes; and (c) costs
q p nt damage.
gfrom household equipmen
20Implications of Eleectricity Shortage• Estimated economic loss of around US$200 million
per annum or 3% of GDPP• Seasonal reduction of inndustrial production due tolow electricity supply in Dec-AprilD(e.g. more than 60
industrial enterprises
pin Sogd
S g region
gwere notfunctioning as only 3.5 million
mkWh/day of electricity
was provided while 14 million
mkWh/day wasrequired)
i d)• About 30% drop in crop yield due to insufficient
access tot iirrigationi ti throu
th ughh watert pumps• Lower school attendancee• Deterioration of healthca
are services, particularly fornewborn infants and vacccination

General Current an
nd Future Situation• In general, Tajikistan facees a crisis in energy security
with serious economic andd social consequences.
qAs
mentioned above, in 2012
2, winter electricity
shortages were estimatedd at 2,700 GWh andaccording to WB estimate, in the absence of any
e deficits could increase tooffsetting measures, theseover 6,800 GWh and 2,55
50 MW by 2020. Without
immediate attention, the electricity
ecrisis in Tajikistan
could
ld affect
ffstabilityb l in the
he country andd theh region• Demand for electricity andd the need for additional
supply will continue to gro
ow even as Tajikistan
endeavors to meet currennt winter shortages.
22General Current annd Future Situation• Despite the magnitude of the hydropower potential,
HPPs have several limitations in Tajikistan. Most
significantly, lower river flows and cold weather
reduce winter electricity generation,gparticularly from
non-storaget
HPP
HPPs. IIn th
the currentt system,twinteri t
ut 70% of summer
energy generation is abougeneration.
ti• Without prompt action to remedy the causes ofTajikistan’s
k’ electricity
lcrisiis andd withh growing
demand, the shortages coould increase to about 4,500
GWh bby 2016 (over(a thirdthi d off winteri t electricity
l t i itdemand) or worse.
23General Current an
nd Future Situation• Barki Tajik,
Tajik the state power utility company
company, has kept
Tajikistan’s power system functioning under difficult
circumstances but the sysstem is increasingly
circumstances,vulnerable to a major brea
akdown that would
jeopardize the supply of eelectricity to all customers
and cause enormous dam
mage to Tajikistan’seconomy.
• The Government of Tajikisstan recognizes both theimportance and challenge
es of energy security as wellas importance of energy saving
spolicies, effectiveenergy resources manage
ement, reductions of energy
losses, and ongoing explo
oration of new energy
supplies, including renewa
able energy sources.
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Tariffs Issues
Industry

4 87 cents US$
4,87

TALCO

8,3 cents US$

Non‐industry

14,9 cents US$

Communal providers

1,94 cents US$

Electric transport

1 94 cents US$
1,94

Irrigation pumps

1,30 cents US$

Population

2,32 cents US$25

Immediate Prriority Issues• Between
B tnow andd 2020
2020, rehabilitationr h bilit ti off theth existingi tihydropower assets is an immportant component to
add ess Tajikistan’s winte
address
inter electricity
elect icit ccrisis.
isis Man
Many ofthe hydropower assets aree operating well beyond
their design life.
life
nto invest in new supply• Demand growth and the needcan beb furtherf th containedt i d tthroughthh fuelf l switching
it hi andda variety of energy efficien
ncy measures. According to
WB estimate,estimate these measu
ures could reduce thedemand by 1,900 GWh orr 13% by 2020, equivalent
to about 29% of the winte
er energy deficit estimatedfor 2020.
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Immediate Prriority Issues• Addressing system inefficienncy

─ Intensify energy loss reductio
on efforts to cover entire country─ SCADA System/National Dispa
atch Center Modernization• Sustainable solutions to mee
et the winter deficit

─ Rehabilitation/modernization of Nurek
NHPP, Dushanbe Combined Heat andPower plant─ Providing connectivity to areas noot currently served by the grid
─ Rogun HPP, CASA 1000, Sangtud
da I, and Sangtuda II)/Summer surplus(trade arrangements)• Continue institutional capaciity strengthening in line withsoundsoud economic,
o o, planningpag andd governancegoa
principles:pp s─ Commercial, operational and fina
ancial performance of energy utilities─ Reduce the large quasi-fiscal deficits by improving the energy pricing
arki Tajik and instituting appropriate
mechanism, corporatization of Ba
instit tional and governanceinstitutionalgo e nance refoefo
o msorms• Attraction of private sector (legal(and institutionalfframework
k attractive
tt ti ffor P
Pubb
bli PrivateblicP i t Partnership)
P thi )
27

CConclusions
l ianddR
Recommendations
d ti• Tajikistan has an immensee reserve of energy
resources, particularly hyd
dropower one.
• The long-term politics of thet supply of energy to thecountry must include a ma
aximum and rational use of
all forms of energy resourrces, while also making sure
to consider using high perrformance technology toconvert energy, supply en
nergy, conserve energy, andprotect the surrounding
pg habitat.
h• It is necessary to efficienttly provide energy to thecountry’ss population. Renecountry
ewable energy sources
present in the regions sho
ould be used first.
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Conclusions and Recommendations
R• At the same time
time, there exists a number of problems
with the wide-spread expa
ansion of renewable energy.
In order to overcome thesse challenges thegovernment and the international organizations
g in the introductio
on of alternative sources ofassistingenergy, must increase effo
orts to transfer modern
technology
gy as well as prov
p vide financial and legal
gsupport.
ab noto onlyo y toto preservep s
the ecology
o ogy ofo a• Thiss will enable
mountainous country, butt it will also improve theliving
g conditions of the popopulation
pand decrease thelevel of poverty.

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THANK YOU
U FOR YOURATTENNTION!

Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp
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