IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

IEEJ:August 2016

Presentation on

Country Report of Pakistan

JICA Training on Energy Policy in Tokyo, Japan(June 26, 2016 to July 23, 2016)
Prepared byBilal Ahmad Sherpao

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

GENERAL COUNTRY INFORMATION

Location: Situated in South Asia
Area:881,913 square Kilometer

GDP:$270.96 billion

Population: 191.7 million (2015)
Literacy Rate: 58%

per Capita Income: $ 1,513

per Capita Energy
Consumption (2011): 481 kg of OEIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY PATTERN(%age)SOURCEGasOil

FY 10

FY 11

FY 12

FY 13

FY 1448.8

47.6

49.5

48.2

46.3

10.6

11.8

10.5

11.0

11.4

31.4

Hydro
Coal

7.3

Nuclear

1.1

LPG
Imported Power
TOTAL

0.6
0.1

100

32.0
6.7
1.3
0.5
0.1

100

30.8
6.6
1.9
0.5
0.1

100

32.5
6.0
1.7
0.5
0.1

100

34.4
5.4
1.8
0.5
0.1

100

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

PETROLEUM EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION
Modest petroleum discoveries over the years. Not enough to meet the demandof the country
Reserves (Dec-2014)

Production (2014)
Reserve Life

Natural GasCrude Oil/Condesate

19,460 BCF

387 MMBBL

4,092 MMFCD
13 Years

REASONS FOR DECREASE IN PRODUCTION OF GAS & CRUDE OIL

86,533 BPD
12.3 Years• Absence of very large discoveries:o 97 BCF -Average discovery between 1992-2014o only 12 discoveries larger than 1 TCF
o Crude average 3.4 MMBBL & 5 reservoirs of 10 MMBBL or more

• Higher finding and development costs
o Cost per barrel of oil equivalent have grown by approximately 74% in
2010-14 against 2005-09 mainly due to decline in average discovery size

• Concentration of exploration activities
o Two major areas i.e. Potwar Basin in Punjab and Middle/Lower Indus
Basin in Sindh and Punjab• Security risks preventing access to hydrocarbon rich areaso Poor security conditions in KPK and Baluchistan have constrained
exploratory activities.

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ROLE OF NATURAL GAS IN PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY• Accounts for nearly 46% of Pakistan’s total primary energy supplies.

• Natural gas production has been stagnant at approximately 4,000 Million
Cubic Feet per Day (MMCFD) level for last 10 years.
• The Country constrained demand for Natural gas is 6,000 MMCFD.

• Total consumers in FY-14 was 7.5 million which has increased by 0.38
million consumers per anum during last five years.
Sector wise Natural Gas Consumption in Pakistan
SECTOR
Residential
PowerIndustry
Fertilizer
Transport
Unaccounted for Gas Losses
TOTAL(%age)FY 1117FY 1218FY 1321FY 142015

14121635
168910035
16891003416710100

33
13711100IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

NATURAL GAS DEMAND-SUPPLY GAPPakistan was gas sufficient till 2005, however, due to increased demand,lack of alternative fuels and price subsidies resulted in gas shortages. The
gap started ascending when gas being cheaper was substituted for oil andpolitical will of adding new consumers on account of annual development
schemes(BCFD)

Year

FY 14
FY 16
FY 20
FY 25
FY 30

Natural Gas
DemandIndigenous Gas
Supplies

Shortfall

5.8

3.8 (Actual)

2.0

7.6

1.6

6.0

6.2
6.9
8.7

4.5
3.1
0.7

1.7
3.8
8.0

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

BRIDGING THE GAP
Government of Pakistan is pursuing its policies of enhancing gas
production to meet the increasing demand of energy in the country.
Government of Pakistan is taking following steps to overcome theshortage of Natural gas in the country• Restrain Natural gas demand at current level,• Enhance indigenous gas production,• Promotion of LPG air mix,
• Import of LNG,

• Import of Gas from Iran,• Import of Gas from Turkmenistan

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ROLE OF OIL IN PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY• Oil accounts for 34.4% of the energy needs of the country.

• The five refineries in the country processed 11.757 million metric tons ofcrude oil in FY 2014.
Million tons

Local Crude
Imprted Crude
Total Crude Processed

FY-10 FY-11 FY-12 FY-13 FY-14
2.98
2.99
3.03
3.47
3.83
6.89
6.79
6.16
7.28
7.93
9.87
9.77
9.19 10.75 11.76• The country’s total demand of oil was 21.109 million tons.
• 11.523 million tons have to be imported during the year.

Petroleum Energy Product Consumption
Petroleum Energy Product Imports
Domestic Energy Product Production

Million tons

FY-10 FY-11 FY-12 FY-13 FY-14
19.13 18.89 18.68 19.39 21.11
11.18 12.37 11.51 10.49 11.52
9.00
8.91
8.40
9.91 10.93

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

SECTOR WISE OIL CONSUMPTION IN PAKISTAN
More than 91% of the oil consumption in FY-14 took place in two
sectors: transport (48.8%) and power (42.7%).
Domestic 0.50%

Industrial 6.10%

Agriculture
0.2%%

OtherGovernment
1.70%

Transport
48.80%
Power 42.70%

Petroleum Products Consumption by Sector
2013-14IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

OIL DEMAND FORECAST
The steady increase in population, the changes in life style of the people and pricesof the petroleum products will result in an increase in oil consumption in thecoming years. If the local crude production and refining capacity do not increase
then Pakistan has to increasingly rely on imports to meet its oil demand

OIL Demand Forecast (MMTOE)

29.00
28.00

YearMMTOE

2016

24.45

2015
2017
2018

27.00

2019

26.00

2020
2021

25.00
24.00
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

2022
2023
2024

24.33
25.54
26.81
25.14
26.02
26.04
25.68
26.79
28.92

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ROLE OF ELECTRICITY/POWER IN PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLYPakistan is facing serious electricity demand shortfall of around 5000-5500 MW
since 2007 leading to long hours of load shedding. This shortfall is primarily due
to the lack of fuel availability. As the power system with the installed capacity of24,198 MW can cater the peak demand of 24,107 MW for FY-2015. However, theavailable capacity stands around 18,482 MW, thus leaving a persistent shortfall

Electricity Generation by Fuel Source in Pakistan (FY 2013-14)

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

GAP BETWEEN INSTALLED CAPACITY & PEAK HOUR DEMAND
The installed capacity can produce enough power to meet the demand,
however, due to various reasons the actual production has been lower than thedemand for a number of years as tabulated below,
MWYear2010-11
2011-12
2012-132013-142014-15

REASONS FOR THE SHORTFALL

Installed Generation Peak Hour Shortfall/
Capacity Capability Demand (Surplus)
ABC
C-B
23,342
15,43021,086
5,656
23,487
14,483
21,536
7,053
23,725
16,846
21,605
4,759
23,702
18,121
23,505
5,384
24,19818,48224,757
6,275• Lower dependable capacity i.e lower production due to degradation of some plants.
• Reduced natural gas supply to power sector from 10.3 MMTOE in 2005 to 6.6
MMTOE in 2014.
• Liquidity constraint due to circular debt and poor bill collection.
• Huge system inefficiencies in generation, transmission and distribution network.
• Failure to construct new dams

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

FORECOST OF SUPPLY & DEMAND
The installed capacity is expected to reach 48,000 MW in 2024. The largest
addition is likely to come from hydro power which shall be nearly 35% (8,400MW) of the cumulative addition. Hydro is likely to be followed by coal (6,900MW) and LNG (3,000 MW). The remaining 25% of the pie shall be shared among
other sources. The expected demand and planned generation for the next five
years are tabulated below,
MW

Projected Shortfall
Peak Hour /(Surplu
Planneds)
Generation DemandYear
A
B
B-A
2015-16
20,303
25,666
5,363
2016-17
23,44527,185
3,740
2017-18
28,751
28,678(73)
2018-19
33,54530,154(3,391)
2019-20
35,59031,625(3,965)IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ROLE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
Nuclear energy contributed 1.8% of Pakistan’s primary energy supply in 2014.
Commissioning of 325 MW Chasma-II in 2011 raised Pakistan’s nuclearelectricity generation by 75% from 2010 levels. The electricity produced bynuclear power plants over the last few years are tabulated below
MTOE

Nuclear Electricity

FY-10
FY-11
FY-12
FY-13
FY-14
0.69
0.82
1.26
1.09
1.22

The existing and upcoming nuclear power plants are
Nuclear power reactors

CHASNUPP-I
CHASNUPP-IICHASNUPP-III
CHASNUPP-IV
CHASNUPP- V
KANUPP-I
KANUPP-II
KANUPP-IIIMuzaffargarh Nuclear
Power Complex

Net Capacity Connected(Mwe)to grid300
6/13/2000
Chasma,300
40616
Punjab340
2016
Province
340
2017
1,000
2020
9018-Oct-71
Karachi, Sindh
1,100
2020
Province
1,100
2020
Muzaffargarh,
Punjab1,000
2020
LocationIEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ROLE OF COAL IN PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLYThe estimated total coal reserves of the country as on June 30th, 2014, wereabout 186 billion tonnes, however, coal has a relatively small share inPakistan’s energy mix accounting for only 5% of total primary energy supplyin 2014.
million tonnes

FY-10
FY-11
FY-12
FY-13
FY-14
Coal Consumption
8.14
7.72
7.67
6.89
6.56
Coal Imports
4.66
4.27
4.06
3.71
3.12
Domestic Coal Production
3.48
3.45
3.61
3.18
3.44

SECTOR WISE CONSUMPTION OF COAL

Coal Consumption by Sector 2013-14 Total 6.55 million tonnes
Coke use 1.70%

Brick Klins
41.50%
Cement 54.30%

Power 2.50%

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

FORECOST OF COAL CONSUMPTION

Coal consumption is estimated to increase sharply in the coming years on
account of increased use of coal in power generation. Total coal consumption isexpected to increase almost four folds from 6.6 MMT in 2014 to 24.0 MMT in
2024. Development of Thar coalfield is expected to produce about 4.8 MMT coalby 2024. However, the share of imported coal shall continue to increase andjump from 28% in 2014 to 62% by 2024
YearMMTOE
2015
3.71
2016
3.83
2017
3.96
2018
4.92
2019
7.15
2020
9.89
2021
12.20
2022
13.56
2023
13.81
2024
13.97

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

ROLE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLYThe GoP is promoting the use of Alternative and Renewable Energy (ARE)
technologies in order to diversify its energy mix so as to ensure Energy
Security, Economic Benefits, Social Equity and Environmental Protection

ARE ON-PROJECTS

Wind• 05 wind power projects of 255.9 MW operational.
• 09 wind power projects of 477 MW are under construction.
• 15 wind power projects of 634 MW in different stages of development.
• 17 wind power projects of 950 MW are at initial stage.
Solar• 01 solar PV project of 100 MW installed.
• 03 solar PV projects of 300 MW under construction.
• 35 solar PV projects of 1393.44 MW in different stages of development.
• 18 solar PV projects of 852 MW are at initial stages.
Biomass• 03 biomass projects of 82.7 MW operational.
• 10 biomass projects of 333.4 MW in development stages.
• 07 biomass projects of 240 MW are at initial stages.

IEEJ：August 2016 © IEEJ2016

OFF-GRID APPLICATIONSAEDB is also promoting the use of RE technologies for distributed generation and offgrid applications. These include:• Solar PV based systems for domestic, commercial and industrial sectors.
• Solar water pumping.
• Solar water heating.
• Solar street lights.
• Biogas plants.
• Mini/micro hydel power for distribution generation.
AREAS OF INTEREST•The response of different countries to the availability or scarcity of energy resources
and how they are reflected in their policies.
•The impact of prices on policy choices.

•The impact of politics on energy policy.
•ForecastingContact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp