1IEEJ © Sep. 2024

2

Increase in electricity demand■Electricity demand in Japan expected to grow after 15
years of decline
Electricity Demand Projection(national total)
1000
TWhpeak950

projection

Demand for new data centers andsemiconductor plants (MW)

2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033

2022

2019

2016

2013

2010

2007

2004

800

2031

850

2028

900

2025

6000
5000
4000
3000
New data centers, 2000
semiconductor
1000
plants, etc.
0

Source: OCCTOIEEJ © Sep. 2024

3

Responding to Intermittency（March 22, 2022 : Tokyo Area）
Electricity Supply and Demand(Tokyo Area)

GW504030GW
1414.3 GW(Mar. 25)

1220

Solar power
very little

100

10
80:00
3:00
6:00
9:00
12:00
15:00
18:00
21:00
0:00
3:00
6:00
9:00
12:00
15:00
18:00
21:00
0:00
3:00
6:00
9:00
12:00
15:00
18:00
21:00

-10

Solar output on each dayof March 2022

Mar. 22Mar. 21（national holiday）

thermalpumpedstorage
IEEJ © Sep. 2024

（Tue）

solar

hydroelectricinterconnectedline

savingMar. 23（Wed）other renewableenergy

6

12.6

GW

420

1.7 GW(Mar. 22)

demandSource: Tepco Powe Grid ,METI and Cabinet Office

Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, METI

4

Need to control cost increase■Coal remains an economically superior resourcecompared to others.
Generation Cost (yen/kWh)yen25

coalLNG

20
15
102023/42022/42021/42020/4

2019/42018/42017/4

2016/4

2015/4

2014/42013/4

2012/4

2011/4

2010/4

2009/4

2008/4

2007/4

2006/40

2005/4

5

Source: Calculated by IEEJ based on trade statistics
IEEJ © Sep. 2024

5For Energy Security■Coal is relatively easy to store over the long term.

Normally

CoalLNG

Normally

2Weeks0IEEJ © Sep. 2024

Additional 3 to 4 months storage possible

1 Month2

Due to boil off

468101214161820week6

Need to secure stable coal supply
during energy transitions■Coal power plant buildup
in China and India
GW
400

53215

China
China

India
India

10Announced36

Pre-construction

Announced

Construction

031140Pre-construction

100

Construction

200

total219

Japan

Source: Global Energy Monitor
IEEJ © Sep. 2024

100%
80%

Total operating

300

China, India: coal capacity
Japan: total capacity■Share of China and India
in world’s coal imports60%
40%

15%

20%
0%

4% 1%

2000

ChinaIndia

21%2022

Others
Source: IEA

Direction of coal power generation reduction■Excerpts from Apulia G7 Leaders’ Communiqué(G7 Italia 2024 : June 13-15, 2024)
Energy, Climate and Environment (excerpt)

We reaffirm our commitment to achieve a fully or
predominantly decarbonized power sector by 2035 andto phase out existing unabated coal power generation in
our energy systems during the first half of 2030s, or in atimeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C
temperature rise within reach, in line with countries’
net-zero pathways.

IEEJ © Sep. 2024

7

Young fleet of coal power plants in Asia

8

■Asia’s electricity demand will keep growing, and theaverage vintage of its coal power fleet is still young.
SHARES OF COAL-FIRED POWER CAPACITY BY AGE (AS OF 2020)*In Japan, a total of 3.5 MW of coal-fired power plants have been put into operation by major
power companies since 2021.
Source: IEA, Global coal-fired power capacity by plant age; METI for Japanese figures,IEEJ © Sep. 2024

9Significance of co-firing in Asia
■Co-firing provides a quick, effective, and realistic
decarbonization solution.
 Carbon intensity can be lowered to an equivalent level to gas-fired
power generation if the co-firing ratio is raised to 50%.

Fluidized-bed boiler
Co-fired

Biomass

Pulverized boiler
Co-firedAmmonia
Source: CSIROIEEJ © Sep. 2024

10CCS for coal fired power generation■Advantage: CCS for coal fired power generation may beefficient because of its high CO2 density in theemitted gas.
■Challenge:

CCS for coal fired power generation requires
large volume of CO2 capture and storage.

CO2CoalsupplyIEEJ © Sep. 2024

Coal fired
Powerplants

CaptureUndergroundstorageccs

Blue Hydrogen from Coal

11

■Advantage: Low-cost feedstock (Brown coal)
Diversification of feedstocks.
■Challenge:

Cost due to larger volume of CCS.

Blue hydrogen projectfrom Australia to Japan

Source: METIIEEJ © Sep. 2024

Summary12■Coal can play valuable roles to address energy challenges
especially in Asia Power demand growth Increased intermittency
 Need to control cost increase Enhance energy security■Actions to realize the roles of coal

 Ensure stable supply during the transition Decarbonize power generation through co-firing & CCS
 Production of blue hydrogen from coal

IEEJ © Sep. 2024