Livestock Production ina Changing Climate
Global change in climate is affecting vulnerable farmers worldwide. Rangeland ecosystem health is declining
under pressure from many drivers in the face of an estimated global population rise of 38% by 2050 that will
mean farmers must feed an additional 158,000 people per day. While nature must thrive to sustain production,
farmers in all corners of the globe have to adapt how they manage their lands if there is any hope of keeping
their landscapes healthy and productive. In some cases, transformative strategies will be needed, dependingon the specific climate impacts they are likely to face in their regions.
Significant changes in physical and biological systems have been observed globally, some of which can be
attributed to changes in climate due to rising temperatures. According to the IPCC Fourth Report
Assessment, temperatures are expected to increase in the range 1.8 - 4 0C by 2090-20991. Changes inclimate and climate variability are expected to have an impact on global food production. An increase infood production is likely to occur at a lower temperature range (1 - 3 0C), but food production is likely todecrease above this range, increasing global food insecurity2. In addition, changes in climate variability are
expected to have an impact on livestock systems in all parts of the world3. These impacts are likely tosurpass the current coping mechanisms of commercial farmers, and even more so the estimated 600
million poor people, smallholder farmers, subsistence farmers, and pastoralists who depend on livestock
production for subsistence (decreased job security + increased poverty + decreased food security)1, 3.

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Livestock systems vary and global trends may be overshadowed by local differences. Impacts are likely to
be spatially variable. Nonetheless, we can expect that, in general, the following aspects of livestock
systems will be most vulnerable to climate change impacts:
Animal feed quality and quantity: changes in rainfall, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations
may trigger changes in rangeland and fodder crop productivity and composition (e.g. ratio of legumes tograsses);
Heat stress: hot environments impair production (growth, meat, milk quality, egg yield, weight and quality)
and reproductive performance (metabolic and health statues, immune response); decreased water
availability may impair forage production and availability; Diseases and disease vectors: higher
temperatures may increase the rate of development of some livestock parasites and pathogens, particularly
those that are sensitive to environmental change and spend part of their life cycle outside of the hostanimal; 3Biodiversity: there is great potential for loss of genetic diversity as a result of extinctions driven by risingtemperatures interacting with other pressures 1,3,4.

Impacts of Climate Variability on Rangelands
Livestock systems can be categorised according to the length of the growing
period in the rangeland and the extent to which livestock are dependent on
extensive grazing of natural vegetation5 . In arid and semiarid rangelands
such as in Sub-Saharan Africa, farmers rely almost entirely on extensivegrazing. Climate change impacts in the arid zone include projected
increases in the frequency, severity, and duration of droughts, increased
temperatures, and reduced rainfall. These impacts are expected to be
associated with direct negative impacts on the productivity of rangelandvegetation and on water availability for livestock consumption. Historically,
drought and heat wave events have demonstrated a strong relationshipbetween drought and animal death6,7,8.

Impacts of Climate Variability on Livestock
The main impacts that can be expected for livestock farmers in these areas
are heat stress – resulting in reduced livestock performance and productivity
due to reduced intake of fodder1, stress as a result of poor quality grazing or
reduced water availability, and the potential promotion of livestock diseases
and parasites.
The good news for small livestock farmers is that, in general, small livestock
such as sheep and goats are more resilient to heat and water stress thanlarge livestock such as cattle. They are also generally better adapted to arid
and semiarid rangeland conditions, with indigenous and mixed breed animals
faring better than their pedigree cousins.

additional adaptation actions suited to this particular environment and others
like it are recommended below.
Adaptation Response 1: Conserving the natural resource base forlivestock: Always come back to the veld. By adjusting stocking densities,
using responsible grazing management such as rotational grazing, andfocusing on the restoration of key resource areas, land users protect andmaintain their valuable grazing resources.
Adaptation Response 2: Building Resilient systems by strengthening
animal capacity to cope with a changing environment. Resilient systems
are those that can withstand climate shocks and changes. In Namakwa,
having good genetic diversity and farming with indigenous lamb breeds suchas Meatmasters or Damaras can help to reduce heat stress in livestock.
Adaptation Response 3: Enhancing the capacity of stakeholders to build
resilience to climate change. Farmers can build resilience throughdiversification of livelihoods – taking up more activities and jobs that do not
rely entirely on farming. Those with an entrepreneurial spirit can look intovalue-add for their stock, for example selling the skins of their animals, orbutchering themselves before private sale into a niche market.
••

Livestock Farmers in Namaqualand,
Northern Cape, South Africa
Livestock farmers in a sub-Saharan semiarid system in the Namakwa Districtof the Northern Cape Province of South Africa have raised their sheep andgoats under extreme weather conditions for many centuries. Livestock
farming is one of the major land-uses and livelihood strategies in the District.
Water scarcity and a sufficiency of adequate grazing are the two main
environmental factors that limit or promote successful livestock farming inthis region. Variability in the climate, including droughts and very high andvery low temperatures which are expected to be exacerbated under climatechange, can affect the quality of grazing and therefore the access to nutrientsrequired for livestock health and productivity.
Farmers here are used to farming under highly variable conditions and havedeveloped some strategies to deal with extreme weather conditions, such as
moving livestock to higher altitudes in the hot summer months, and farmingwith adaptive breeds. However, some farmers perceive that conditions havebecome hotter and drier, and that rainfall seasons have shifted. Some••

A coordinated approach on climate change, adaptation and foodsecurity is essential if we want to see climate change integrated into thedecision making process at national, regional and local level.
In order to have a strong enabling environment, we need to see astrengthening of local institutions to support resilience throughinformation flow, capacity building, training and technology transfer.
Sharing information such as weather reports, seasonal forecasts andwarnings can be of great value to farmers so they can plan ahead – but
importantly, that information must be communicated in an accessibleway.
National programmes on disaster risk reduction can aid farmers to makeinformed decisions to avoid climate shocks such as drought.
Trying new ideas and technologies in our changing climate can yieldvaluable results. For example, consider the use of flexible access tocredit, fodder banks, or the formation of local savings groups, to allow
farmers access to finances for fodder in times of drought.

Allow change and innovation to be guided by good information. Focus on
measuring change over time, setting up strong monitoring protocols that canallow people to see what worked, what didn’t, and what needs to change.
This will enable the most flexible, adaptive and resilient farming system.

Conservation South Africa
Email: abourne@conservation.org | Tel: +27 27 718 1565 | Fax: +27 27 718 1566
Photo’s by ©Tessa Mildenhall, CSAThornton, P.K., van de Steeg, J., Notenbaert, A., Herrero, M. 2009. The impacts of climate change on livestock and livestock systems in developing countries: a review of what we know and what we need to know. Agricultural Systems 101 pp 113 – 127.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2007. Climate Change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Summary for policy makers. Available online. Thornton, P., van de Steeg, J., Notenbaert, A., Herrero, M. 2013. Climate change:
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African environment. Unpublished PhD thesis, University of Cape Town. Archer, E., Oettle, E., Louw, R.m Tadross, M. 2008. Farming on the edge in arid western South Africa: climate change and agriculture in marginal environments. Geography 93(2) pp 98 – 107. Batima, P., Bat, B., Tserendorj, Ts. 2006. Evaluation of adaptation measures for livestock sector in Mongolia. AIACC working paper 41 pp 1 – 32.