E-books and E-Journals inUS University Libraries:
Current Status and Future
ProspectspJames Michalko
Vice President, OCLC ResearchSymposium Keio University6 October 2010

collection trends
switch to e-books
implications

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010

2

ARL Expenditures, 1986-2007

An unsustainable
pattern of gp
growthSource: “Expenditure Trends in ARL
Libraries, 1986–2007”ARL Statistics
2006–2007, Association of Research
Libraries, Washington, DC

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct20103

Less investment in libraries

Analysis based on NCES data: Constance Malpas

If this trend continues library allocations would fall below 0.5% by 2015. Growthpsector,, concerns about infrastructure costs in the ‘middle’ and budgetgin for‐profit
issues in the research sector all support this trend.
E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010

4

In the last 15 years . . .
While student enrollment
has increased (+25%) . . .
use of onsite librarycollections/services hasdecreased (-10 to -50%).
-50%) . .
and reliance on external
collections has more thandoubled (+150%)
Students and researchers relianceon library has changed

Source: “Service Trends in ARL
Libraries, 1991–2007 ”ARL Statistics
2006–2007, Association of Research
Libraries, Washington, DC

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010

5What Do We Know About Print Book Use
The 80/20 rule applies
Past use predicts future use (better than anything else)
Use declines
d lwithh age
In academic print collections users fail to find owned known
ititems
50% off ththe titime
Cost to the user is largely in the uncertainty of finding whatth wantt
theyThey are no longer using what we have. The value
off our print collections
llto theh University has
hdeclined rapidly.
© 2010 David W. Lewis.

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct20106

12.9%

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010

7

switch to e-books

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct20108

Move from Print to Electronic Collections
ARL Medium % Expenditures on Electronic Resources
60.0%

50.0%

40.0%

30 0%
30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%
2002/03

2003/04

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08© 2010 David W. Lewis

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010.
9

Move from Print to Electronic Collections

Complete for journals• But we’re still shelving unused paper

Nearly complete for reference works• But we’re still buying paper reference works© 2010 David W. Lewis

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct201010

and the switch to primarily e-bookpurchasing will happen soon

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct201011

Forecasts – Digital Availability of e-books- the publishers expect this switch
Current*

Segment

Five Years*

FrontBackTen Years#25%

Trade:85%

50%

100%

10%

Acad/Prof:

75%

30%

100%

20%
1%

Text books:
College:
H/S:

90%
20%

10%
5%

100%
50%

Memo:
*Assumes top tier publishers – 1,000 active publishers
psellingg on Amazon.com# Assumes anyy active publisher
OCLC work commissioned from Michael Cairns.
Based on interviews with selection of industry experts.

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010

12

Status of the switch to e-publications• Complete for ee-journals
journals• Will be primarily electronic for books soon
Combine with• Mass digitization of legacy print collections• Google in USA – digitizing everything regardless of copyrightstatus• Google participating libraries creating a joint platform to store,
preserve and ultimately access their copies of the Google digital
versions The platform is run by the University of Michigan andversions.
called the Hathi Trust

www.hathitrust.org
E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct201013

Hathi Trust - current members
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

California Digital Library
Indiana UniversityMichigan State University
Northwestern University
The Ohio State UniversityPenn State University
Purdue UniversityUC BerkeleyUC DavisD iUC Irvine
UCLAUC MercedUC Riverside••••••••••••UC San Diego
UC San Francisco
UC Santa Barbara
UC Santa Cruz
The University of Chicago
University of Illinois
University of Illinois at Chicago
The University of Iowa
U i
University
it off MiMichiganhi
University of Minnesota
University of Wisconsin-Madison
University of Virginia

MOST OF THE US GOOGLE BOOK PARTNERS
E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010

14

Moving from Print to Electronic Books

IF• E-book publishing will be the norm and• Legacy print will be digitized (Google,(Google Hathi,Hathi theDigitizing Academic Books in Japanese project)
THEN• We can change the management of our existing
printi collections
ll i• We can retire our legacy print collections

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct201015

Retire Legacy Print Collections

Under way at many
institutions

Discussions in process on
collaborations and nationalprograms© 2010 David W. Lewis.

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct201016

Retiring Legacy Print Collections- digital is much cheaper than the library or a storage facility$5.00 to $13.10$28.77$50 98 to $68$50.98$68.4343

Life cycle cost based on 3% discount rate. From Paul N. Courant and Matthew “Buzzy” Nielsen, “On the Cost of Keeping a Book,”i TheinTh Id
Idea off Order:
O d TTransforming
fi RResearchhCCollections
ll ti
ffor 2121stt CCenturyt
SScholarship,h l hi CLIR,
CLIR JJune 2010,2010 available
il bl at:t
http://www.clir.org/pubs/abstract/pub147abst.html

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct201017

implications
pE-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct201018

US Investment in Academic Print Collections

Academic Library Expenditures
on Purchased and Licensed Content
Projected changePrintP
i booksb k andd journals
jl
E‐journals and e‐books

20202014

You are here

1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008

90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Source: US Dept of Education, NCES, Academic Libraries Survey, 1998‐2008

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010

19

A global change in the library environment
60%

Academic print book collection already substantially
duplicated in mass digitized book corpus% off Titles in L
Local Collec
ction

50%

June 2010
Median duplication: 31%

0%
40%

30%

20%

June 2009Median duplication:
p19%

10%0%020

406080Rank in 2008 ARL Investment Index
E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010

100

120

Data current as of June 201020

Issues with Mass Digitization of Legacy
Print materials• Legal issues• Copyright• Orphan Works• Open Access• Financial• Technical• Organizational• National and transtrans-national
national obstacles

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010

21

Thank you.
yJim Michalko

comments, questions and observations are welcome via
emailThanksThk to LorcanLDDempsey,DDavidid Lewis,
L i C
Constance Malpas
M lfor their contributions…

E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010

22