Russia Study Group

October 26, 2009

[History of Russia Study Group]

Since the Japan Institute of International Affairs was founded in 1960, research on theSoviet Union/Russia has been a priority within the research on the Communist bloc centeredon China and the USSR.

Numerous papers reflecting the circumstances at the time werepublished in “International Affairs” (a periodical launched in JIIA’s first year), including
East-West summit meetings and disarmament issues, Japan-USSR fishing negotiations,analysis of the Khrushchev administration, the China-USSR dispute, and US-Soviet
economic competition.

Building on this, JIIA then endeavored to disseminate its research

results in international affairs seminars held across Japan at universities and other venues,
and in 1968 it began publishing the bulletin “International Affairs Research” featuring papers
on China-USSR research by research fellows Fumio Nishimura and Kazuo Mori. In 1971
JIIA even published “Modern Soviet Social Theory” edited by Akira Tsujimura (at the time aprofessor at the University of Tokyo).

Based on subsequent research projects, a series ofbooks were released, starting in 1977 with “Aspects of Soviet Foreign Policy” edited byTomoyoshi Hirai.

A four-year plan was drafted in 1974 to research Soviet political

diplomacy, economic industry, and social culture and to publish the results in a three-volume“Modern Soviet Theory.”

This plan produced “Volume 1: Modern Soviet Economy andIndustry” (1976; edited by Fumio Nishimura and Yasuhiko Yoshida), “Volume 2: ModernSoviet Politics and Diplomacy” (1978; edited by Fumio Nishimura and Seijiro Nakazawa),
and “Volume 3: Modern Soviet Society and Culture” (1980; edited by Fumio Nishimura andAkira Tsujimura).

Taking over the tasks of the Europe-Asia Society as it was disbanded in 1976, JIIA began
publishing “Communism and International Politics” on a regular basis, and the institute hasretained a solid reputation both in Japan and overseas as a key center in Japan for researchon the Soviet Union, China and other communist countries.

The oldest Soviet Union Study

Group reports still on file at JIIA cover those times: “Analysis and Prospects of the USSR’sMiddle East and Africa Policies” (FY1979-1980; Akio Kimura et al.), “The Soviet Union as a
Global Power” (FY1980-1981; Akinori Kikuchi et al.), and “Soviet Power Assessment
Project” (FY1980-1981; Hiroshi Kato, Haruki Tanba, et al.).

To commemorate JIIA’s 25th anniversary the following year, JIIA in 1984 established aCenter for Soviet Studies to further systematic research on the Soviet Union and East
European countries and to engage in wide-ranging exchange and development in researchon the Soviet Union both inside and outside Japan.

This sparked the creation of a numberof Soviet Union/Eastern Europe study groups: the Soviet Foreign and Military Affairs Study
Group led by Hiroshi Kimura, Professor, Hokkaido University (“The Soviet Union’s Asia
Policy – Past and Present”), the Soviet Domestic and Economic Affairs Study Group led byKenzo Kiga, Professor Emeritus, Keio Gijuku University (“Domestic and Economic Issues inthe Soviet Union under the Chernenko Administration”), and the East European Economic
Affairs Study Group led by Tsuneaki Sato, Professor, Yokohama City University (“EconomicPolicy in East European Countries and Medium-term Performance Prospects”).

Since theCenter’s establishment, research findings have not simply been compiled into reports but
also more broadly publicized through the regular publication of “Soviet Studies,” giving theCenter a key role within Soviet studies in Japan.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, theCenter was renamed the Center for Russian Studies and its periodical accordingly renamed“Russian Studies.”

This periodical also developed into book form from this time, resulting

in the publication of “Politics in Post-Communist Russia: From Yeltsin to Putin” (by ToshihikoUeno), “New Developments in Russian Foreign Policy Since 9/11” (by Hiroaki Matsui) and“The Economies of Russia and East Europe: Progress in the Transition to MarketEconomies” (edited by Yoshiaki Nishimura).

The Center’s findings are now released as

study group reports and special issues of “International Affairs” as JIIA’s Russian study
groups carry on an unbroken tradition.

[FY2008-2009 Russian Study Group: Research Overview]Research topic: Policy Decisions in Russia: The Impact of Political Forces on Policy
Decisions
Russia has gained a prominent presence lately across numerous realms, including foreign
relations, economics, security and energy development.

Despite the influence of Russia’svarious policies on the rest of the world, though, insufficient light has been shed on Russia’s
policy decision-making structure, the processes by which these policies are selected andthe organizations and people exercising actual power in this decision making.

A uniquetandem administration featuring Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev came into
power in 2008, and there have been growing calls for a concise elucidation of the truths
behind Russian policy decision making.

To approach as closely as possible the underlying truths of Russia’s policy decision making

structure, the Study Group is attempting to analyze in a multifaceted fashion the present
policy decision making process for domestic political, diplomatic, military and economic
issues and to generalize this analysis into the historical background.

This is an extremely

ambitious research project being boldly undertaken by experts from various fields that will
look at issues of extraordinary importance but of great difficulty to assess – including policy
decision making by the Putin-Medvedev administration, involvement in the military’sdecision making during the conflict with Georgia, the internal workings of themilitary-industrial complex, and the influence of the “siloviki” – as well as the policy decision
making process on economic issues (e.g., policy changes surrounding WTO accession andforeign direct investment regulations) that are in fact the focus of the greatest attention.

[Findings so far]This Study Group was established in April 2008.

Six Study Group meetings were held in

FY2008 at which discussions were held on the research conducted by the group members
and the reports prepared in their respective areas. The results were compiled into a reportat the end of FY2008 that stands as an interim report.

Dedicated research is underway in

FY2009 to further the research of the previous fiscal year and to produce the Group’s final
output, and six Study Group meetings have already been held.

Some of the Groupmembers made a research visit to Russia, and their findings were also presented at theStudy Group meetings. A report comprising the culmination of two years of research will beprepared and submitted at the end of March 2010.

Eight major research results have been announced thus far: (1) modeling of the Putin
administration’s policy decision making structure, (2) elucidation of the roles of “siloviki”
groups from the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Security Service, etc., in the Putinand Medvedev administrations’ policy decision making structures, (3) analysis of thedecision making structure for economic policies, especially policy changes toward WTO
accession and of the disputes between ministries/agencies in the process of passing foreign
capital restriction laws, (4) identification of the military elites having an impact on policy
decision making during the conflict with Georgia, and elucidation of the revival of thedefense industry under government leadership, (5) analysis of the influence of the Russian
President’s office on the legislative process and the foreign affairs policy making process,and of the continuity with the Soviet Union’s foreign policy, (6) explication of the policy
process surrounding the establishment of Russia’s NPO Act, (7) explanation of the impact ofRussia’s elites as a whole on policy making, and (8) elucidation of policy making pertaining
to the Subterranean Resources Law.

[Study Group Members]Group Leader:

YOKOTE Shinji, Professor, Faculty of Law, Keio Gijuku University

Members:

UENO Toshihiko, Professor, Faculty of Foreign Languages, Sophia
University
ONO Shigeki, Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Asahigawa
University
KONNO Yugo, Senior Research Fellow, Mizuho Research Institute Ltd.
TERAYAMA Kyosuke, Associate Professor, Center for Northeast AsianStudies, Tohoku University
NAGATSUNA Kengo, Professor, Faculty of International Relations, AsiaUniversity
HYODO Shinji, Senior Researcher, Research Department, National
Institute for Defense Studies
FUSHIDA Hironori, Doctoral Candidate, Graduate School of Economics,Kyoto University
YAMAUCHI Toshihiko, NHK Commentary Committee

Member and Secretary: MICHIGAMI Mayu, Research Fellow, Japan Institute of International
Affairs