aް‫މޯލްޑިވްސް މީޓިއޮރޮލޮޖިކަލް ސަރވިސ‬Maldives Meteorological Service

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Rainfall and Temperature Outlook over Maldives

For June 2021
SummaryRainfall is likely to be below normal in all areas June 2021. Temperature is expected to beslightly above normal during the month.

Introduction
This consensus outlook for Maldives has been developed through assessments including
prevailing regional and global climate condition and prediction of various models, seasonal
forecast of WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LCLRFMME), NMME Probability Forecasts of Monthly Climate Anomalies and monthly
forecasts of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
El Niño -Southern Oscillation (ENSO): ENSO-neutral condition presents. Over east-centraland eastern Pacific Ocean, Equatorial Sea SurfaceTemperatures are near to below average.
Some global models indicate high probability for neutral condition to prevail duirng June.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Neutral IOD condition persists and models suggest same
condition during the month.
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): MJO is enhanced over Pacific Ocean at the beginning ofJune and predicetd a westward movement durung the 1st week. it is expected to be weakened
from 2nd week and move over Indian Ocean towrds end of the month.
Calibration of climate models
Most models suggest below normal rainfall over the country.
Global Producing Centres and Lead Centre

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Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble of WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast MultiModel Ensemble indicates below normal rainfall over most part of the country andclimatological probability over part of southern atolls during June.
Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble of WMO Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast MultiModel Ensemble indicates above normal Temperature across the country for June 2021.
Climate condition
Rainfall anomaly in June (1991-2020)

Millimeters

300
200

Hanimaadhoo

100Hulhule

0Kadhdhoo-100

Gan2020

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

-200

Years

Figure 1- Rainfall has a decreasing trend during June.

Figure 1 shows rainfall recorded between 1991 and 2020 in four
Meteorological stations.
Figure 2 shows spatial distribution of rainfall across the country duringJun 2020, with data from all five Meteorological stations. Highes rainfall
recorded in northern atolls.
Conclusion
Figure 2 Spatial distributionof rainfall over the country
during June 2020

By considering the neutral condition ENSO and IOD, MJO signal overphase 6 and expected movement, Multi-Model Ensemble of WMO LeadCentres, NMME Probability Forecasts, ECMWF monthly forecasts,
climate data, rainfall is likely below normal throughout the country.
Temperature is likely to be slightly above normal across the country during
the month.

Figure 3 Rainfall probability
for Jun 2021

Maldives Meteorological service / Hulhule / Rep. of Maldivespages: Page 3 of 3

Note:
Normal: Amount of rainfall between 90% - 110% of the average for the period.
Above normal: Amount of rainfall more than 110% of the average for the period.
Below Normal: Amount of rainfall less than 90% of the average for the period.

References
Bureau of Meteorology, Australia. (2021, May 25). Climate Model Summary for June to October 2021. Retrieved from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Indian-Ocean&region=NINO34
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP. (2021, May 31). ENSO: Recent evolution, current status and predictions. Retrieved from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcstsweb.pdf
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP. (2021, May 31). Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent evolution, current status and predictions. Retrieved fromhttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/ARCHIVE/PDF/mjo_evol-status-fcsts-20210426.pdf
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2021, May). Prob prate forecast. Retrieved from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/prob/images/prob_ensemble_prate_lead1.png
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2021, May). Prob tmp2m forecast. Retrieved from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/prob/images/prob_ensemble_tmp2m_lead1.png

Maldives Meteorological service / Hulhule / Rep. of Maldives