Indian nuclear weapons capability【Overview】
India is a non-signatory of the NPT that maintains a nuclear arsenal. The nation is pursuing the strengthening andmodernization of its nuclear forces in order to establish the nuclear triad similarly to the U.S. and Russia. The longrunning relationship of tension with neighboring Pakistan is in the background to this but in recent years theweight is increasingly shifting towards containment countermeasures against China, and this trend is becoming
further marked due to border clashes between the Indian and Chinese armies (refer for example to O’Donell,Frank & Bollfrass, Alxander K. 2020). India has always publicly stated a no first use policy, but the creditability ofthis is wavering with repeated pronouncements by senior government officials hinting at a change in policy (refer
for example to Sundaram, Kumar & Ramana, M. V. 2017).
India is trending towards an expansion of its nuclear capability, but we estimate that as of June 2022 the numberof nuclear warheads in its possession remained at 160, the same as last year (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt
2022). This estimate is based on the amount of weapons-grade fissile matter likely in India's possession as wellas the number of potentially available nuclear-capable delivery systems. The nuclear warheads are not deployed
and it had appeared that they were placed in a central storage facility, but it has also been suggested that inrecent years various measures have been taken to increase readiness (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2020).
India’s nuclear weapons are believed to be plutonium-based. According to estimates as of the end of 2020 by the
Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA), India possessed around 710kg of
weapons-grade plutonium and around 8.1 tons of reactor-grade plutonium that it has separated from heavy water
reactor fuel and earmarked for potential strategic use in the future. Since it is feasible that this plutonium could
be transferred to military use in the future we estimate India’s total stockpile of separated plutonium for military
use as being around 8.8 tons (Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA)
2022). Given that 4-6 kg of plutonium is needed to manufacture a nuclear bomb (although this is influenced by
the level of technology), this amount is the equivalent of 1,467-2,200 nuclear warheads. With higher levels oftechnical sophistication, however, it is possible to obtain a bomb from 2- 4kg plutonium (Union of Concerned
Scientists 2004), in which case the same Indian stockpile would suggest an arsenal of 4,400 warheads. India isalso increasing production of highly enriched uranium (HEU), presumably for use aboard nuclear submarines(International Panel on Fissile Materials 2022).
India’s nuclear capability consists of four types of ground-launched ballistic missile, two types of sea-launchedballistic missile, and two types of aircraft. There are also at least five more types of ballistic missiles indevelopment (three ground-launched, one sea-launched and one air-launched). One of them, Agni-5, has a range
approximating the ICBM trajectory and Agni-6 is expected to have a longer reach (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda,
Matt 2021). In June and December, 2021 India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO)
conducted a launch test of the so-called “new generation” Agni-P nuclear capable ballistic missile. The Indian
government and senior military figures have repeatedly expressed a wish to develop technology for deploying
multiple warheads on each missile, but as yet it is unclear how much specific progress has been made in thisarea.
It is also believed that India is planning to build a fleet of four to six Indian-manufactured SSBN (Kile, Shannon N.
& Kristensen, Hans M. 2021). INS Arihant, India’s first domestically built nuclear-powered SSBN was launched in2009 and became officially operational in February 2016. In November 2018 the Indian government announced
that the Arihant had conducted its first deterrent patrol. India’s Prime Minister Modi asserted that the nation had
achieved the nuclear triad, but whether or not the Arihant is actually loaded with a nuclear warhead remains
1 / 8

unclear (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2020). INS Arighat, the second SSBN, was launched in 2017, andwhile it was reported that the submarine was planned to become operational in early 2021, information from theIndian Navy is extremely limited and it is unclear what the actual situation is (Defence View 2022). The December
29, 2021, issue of the UK-based Janes Defence Weekly reported that a third Arihant-class (S-4) SSBN had beenlaunched on November 23, 2021 (Defence View 2022). The third and fourth SSBNs are larger than the Arihant
and Arighat, and appear to be equipped with eight torpedo tubes able to deliver up to 24 K-15 Sagarika missiles
or eight K-4 missiles (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021). Furthermore, it has been reported that India
plans to start the manufacture of an S-5 class SSBN with a displacement of 13,000 tons or more. (Pandit, Rajat
2021-1).

2 / 8

Indian nuclear weapons capability
The numbers that have changed since last year are highlighted in red
Updated: June 1, 2022●

Nuclear warheads●

Nuclear weapons delivery vehicles 1)
Type / designation

160

Missile/bomb

No. ofwarheads
per weapon

Ground-launched ballistic missile

No. ofwarheads

Range
(km)

Payloads(kg)

Year first
deployed

Remarks

84?

Prithvi - 2

30

1

30

250

500

2003

2)

Prahaar

?

1

?

150

200

In development

3)

Agni – 1

20

1

20

>700

1,000

2007

4)

Agni – 2

18

1

18

>2000

1,000

2011

5)

Agni – 3

12

1

12

>3,200

1,500

2014?

6)

Agni – 4?

?

2?

>3,5001,000

In development

7)

Agni – 5?

?

2?

>5,2001,000

Agni – P

?

?

?

SLBM
Dhanush1,000 ~
2,000

In development(2025?)

8), 9)?

In development

10)

28?
2

1

4

400

500

2013

11)

Sagarika (K-15/B-05)

12

1

24?

700

500 - 600

2018

12)

K-4

?

?

?

~3,500?

Airborne weapons
Loading machine :Mirage 2000H (Vajra)
Loading machine :Jaguar 1S/1B (Shamsher)

In development(2025?)

48

13)
14)

32

1

32

1,850

6,300

1985

15)

16

1

16

1,400

4,760

1981

16)

?

?

?

>700?

?

In development

17)

Air-launched cruise missile
Nirbhay©RECNA Nuclear Warhead Data Monitoring Team

【Notes】
1)

The source for information on missile / bomb, No. of warheads per weapon, range, and year first deployed is Kristensen, Hans M.
& Korda, Matt 2021, Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee 2020. The source for information on payloads is
Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M.2015. In addition to the warheads allotted for each deployed delivery vehicle, the Agni III,
IV, V and K-15 warheads are thought to have been produced (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2020).

2)

Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). (Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee 2020 estimated the range of SRBM
as 250km, and distinguishes it from close-range ballistic missiles (CRBM) with a range of 300km or less). Single-stage. Liquid
propellant. Road-mobile. The yield of the nuclear warheads is 12kt. The latest test launch was conducted on December 16, 2020
(The Economic Times 2020).
3 / 8

3)

Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) (Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee 2020 considers it as close-range
ballistic missile).

Single-stage. Liquid-propellant. Road-mobile. A successor to Prithvi 1 (150km range). The latest test launch was

conducted on September 20, 2018 (Molenda, Jenevieve 2018). It is also reported that India is developing a new ground-launchedballistic missile, Pranash, an advanced version of Prahaar with extended range of 200km (Hindustan Times 2020).
4)

Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). Two-stage. Solid-propellant. Road-mobile. The yield of the nuclear warhead is 40kt.
Operational in 2007. Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee 2020 estimated the number of missiles as being“fewer than 75.” The latest test launch was conducted on October 30, 2018 (NDTV2019).

5)

Medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). A modified variant of the Agni-I. Two-stage. Solid-propellant. Road-mobile. The yield of thenuclear warhead is 40kt. The latest test launch was conducted on November 17, 2019, which is believed to be its first night launch(INDIA TV 2019).

6)

Intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). Two-stage. Solid-propellant. Rail-mobile. The yield of nuclear warhead is 40kt. DefenseIntelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee 2020 estimates that it has less than ten missiles. The latest test launch was
conducted on November 30, 2019, which is believed to be its first night launch (Sputnik 2019).

7)

Intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). Two-stage. Solid-propellant. Road･ Rail -mobile. (Road-mobile, according to somedocumentation (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2018).) The yield of nuclear warhead is 40kt. The latest test launch (theseventh) was conducted on December 23, 2018 (NDTV 2018).

8)Intermediate-range ballistic missile (Missile Defense Project 2018 estimates its range 5,000-8,000km, categorizing it asintercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM)). Three-stage. Solid-propellant. Road-mobile. The first test launch was conducted on April
19, 2012. The latest test launch was conducted on October 27, 2021 (Dahlgren, Masao 2021). The Indian Ministry of Defense
announced that "the successful launch of Agni 5 is in line with the 'credible minimum deterrence' policy that supports India's
commitment to 'no first use'" (Press Information Bureau, Government of India 2021). Unlike other types in the Agni series, the Agni5 is cased, for quicker response, in a newly developed mobile canister (launch tube), from which it is fired. While many reports
allude to Indian plans to MIRV the Agni-5, Kristensen & Korda discount the scenario (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2020).

9)

The Agni-6, an ICBM with an extended range, is believed to be in development. The U.S. Air Force’s National Air and SpaceIntelligence Center sees the Agni-6 to be in design phase and estimates its strike range at 6,000km (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda,
Matt 2021, National Air and Space Intelligence Center 2017).

10) Medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM). Two-stage. “P” means “Prime.” The Defence Research and Development Organisation(DRDO) announced in 2016 the development of the Agni-P (known at the times as the Agni-P1). A successful launch test was
conducted on June 28, 2021, and the DRDO announced a “new-generation Agni-class ballistic missile” with improved operability
and missile precision (Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) 2021). A second launch test was conducted on
December 18 the same year (The Hindu 2021). It adopts the same cannister-launched system as the Agni-V and is India’s firstintermediate-range

ballistic missile using the technologies employed on the Agni-4 and Agni-5 (Korda, Matt & Kristensen, Hans

2021).
11) Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). Single-stage. Liquid-propellant. The yield of nuclear warhead is 12kt. The naval version of thePrithvi-2. It is launched from Sukanya-class offshore patrol vessels. Each ship carries two Dhanush missiles (Kristensen, Hans M.
& Korda, Matt 2020). The latest test launch was conducted on February 23, 2018 (NDTV 2018-1).
12) Short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). Two-stage. Solid-propellant. The yield of nuclear warhead is 12kt. INS Arihant is capable ofcarrying 12 K-15 missiles (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021) Some reports allege INS Arighat is capable of carrying 24 K15 missiles but this is unconfirmed (Kile, Shannon N. & Kristensen, Hans M. 2018). The latest test launch was conducted on
January 27, 2013 (Eshel, Tamir 2013). The ground-launched model of the K-15 is called the Shourya, and it may attain nuclear
4 / 8

capability (Missile Threat 2018-2). Shourya was successfully test launched on October 3, 2020 (Chordia, Saurav 2020).
13) Two-stage. Solid-propellant. The latest test launch was conducted on January 19, 2020 (NDTV 2020). INS Arihant can carry four K4 missiles (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021). India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has
declared that it also has a plan to develop SLBMs equivalent to the Agni V with an increased range of 5,000 km (Kristensen, Hans
M. & Korda, Matt 2021).
14)

In 2016 India concluded an agreement to purchase 36 Rafale fighter jets. According to Ambassador of India to France they arescheduled for delivery in 2022 (Zeenews 2021). Since these fighter jets are deployed in nuclear missions in France it has been
indicated that they may become the successors to the Jaguar IS bombers, but there has been no official announcement (Kristensen,
Hans M. & Kile, Shannon N. 2020). .

15) No. 1 Squadron and No. 7 Squadron (possibly 9) of 40 Wing are deployed at Maharajpur Air Force Station, and 1 or 2 Squadron isthought to have a nuclear mission (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2020). Upgrades continue, with the latest model known as
the Mirage 2000 I.
16) Out of four squadrons (a total of 76 aircraft), two are considered to have nuclear missions (Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt
2020).
17) Nirbhay, an air-launched cruise missile (700-1,000km range, 450kg payload), is suspected of nuclear capability. Tests since 2013
continued to fail, with the fifth finally succeeding on November 8, 2017 (Pandit, Rajat, 2017). On February 6, 2020, Defence
Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) announced the completion of the Nirbhay development program and also
revealed a new development plan of several cruise missiles, including a successor to Nirbhay (Dahlgren, Masao 2020). The partial
deployment of the Nirbhay was reported in September 2020 (Aroor, Shiv 2020). The latest launch test took place on October 13,
2020, but was unsuccessfull due to technical trouble (Raghuvanshi, Vivek 2020).

【Source】
Aroor, Shiv 2020: “India deploys long-range missile Nirbhay to counter Chinese threat at LAC,” India Today, 28 September 2020,
https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/india-deploys-long-range-missile-nirbhay-to-counter-chinese-threat-at-lac-1726255-2020-09-28(accessed April 13, 2021)

Chordia, Saurav 2020: “India successfully test fired hypersonic missile Shaurya.” American Military News, 9 October 2020,
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2020/10/india-successfully-test-fired-hypersonic-missile-shaurya/ (accessed April 13, 2021)

Dahlgren, Masao 2021: "India Tests Agni-V Ballistic Missile," Missile Threat, Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 2,
2021, last modified November 2, 2021, https://missilethreat.csis.org/india-tests-agni-v-ballistic-missile/(accessed May 8, 2022)

Dahlgren, Masao 2020: “India Reveals New Cruise, Antiship Missiles,” Missile Threat, Center for Strategic and International Studies,
February 7, 2020, last modified February 7, 2020, https://missilethreat.csis.org/india-reveals-new-cruise-antiship-missiles/(accessed
May 8, 2022)

Defence View 2022: “Major breakthrough: India launched 3rd Arihant class nuclear submarine,” Defence View, 5 January 2022,
https://www.defenceview.in/major-breakthrough-india-launched-3rd-arihant-class-nuclear-submarine/(accessed May 8, 2022)

Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) 2021: “DRDO successfully flight tests New Generation Agni P Ballistic Missile,”
5 / 8

28 June 2021, https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1730828 (accessed May 8, 2022)

Defense Intelligence Ballistic Missile Analysis Committee 2020: “Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat,” July 2020,
https://media.defense.gov/2021/Jan/11/2002563190/-1/1/1/2020%20BALLISTIC%20AND%20CRUISE%20MISSILE%20THREAT_FINAL_2OCT_REDUCEDFILE.PDF(accessed April 13, 2021)

Estel, Tamir 2013: “India’s K-15 Sagarika Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile Completes Developmental Tests,” Defense Update, 27
January 2013, https://defense-update.com/20130127_k5_slbm_complete_tests.html (accessed April 13, 2021)

The Hindu 2021: “New generation nuclear capable ballistic missile Agni-P tested for second time,” 18 December 2021,
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-successfully-tests-nuclear-capable-ballistic-missile-agni-p/article37984273.ece(accessed May 8, 2022)

Hindustan Times 2020: “India to develop 200-km range tactical ballistic missile,” 7 February 2020,
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-to-develop-200-km-ranage-pranash-missile/storyeev9HZEZo2m6ADnIjSnvcP.html(accessed May 8, 2022)

INDIA TV 2019: “Night trial of surface-to-surface Agni-2 missile conducted successfully,” 17 November 2019,https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/agni-2-missile-night-trial-conducted-successfully-564266 (accessed April 13, 2021)

International Panel on Fissile Materials (IPFM) 2022: “Fissile material stocks: India,” 2 May 2022,
http://fissilematerials.org/countries/india.html(accessed May 9, 2022)

Korda, Matt & Kristensen, Hans 2021: “India’s Nuclear Arsenal Takes A Big Step Forward,” Federation of American Scientists Blog, 23
December 2021, https://fas.org/blogs/security/2021/12/indias-nuclear-arsenal-takes-a-big-step-forward/ (accessed May 8, 2022)

Kristensen, Hans M. & Kile, Shannon N. 2020: “Indian nuclear forces,” SIPRI Yearbook 2020 Armaments, Disarmament and International
Security, Oxford University Press 2020, pp.362‒368.

Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2022: “Status of World Nuclear Forces,” Federation of American Scientists.
https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/(accessed May 8, 2022)

Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2021: “VI. Indian nuclear forces,” SIPRI Yearbook 2021 Armaments, Disarmament and International
Security, Oxford University Press 2021, pp.378-384

Kristensen, Hans M. & Korda, Matt 2020: “Indian nuclear forces, 2020,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, vol. 76, no. 4, pp.217–225.

Missile Defense Project 2018, “Sagarika/Shaurya,” Missile Threat, Center for Strategic and International Studies, August 11, 2016, lastmodified June 15, 2018, https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/sagarika-shaurya/ (accessed May 8, 2022)

Molenda, Jenevieve 2018: “India Successfully Test Fires Prahaar Ballistic Missile,” Missile Threat, Center for Strategic and International
Studies, September 21, 2018, last modified September 21, 2018, https://missilethreat.csis.org/india-successfully-test-fires-prahaar6 / 8

srbm/ (accessed May 8, 2022)

NDTV 2020: “India Successfully Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable K-4 Missile Off Andhra Pradesh Coast: Report,” 19 January 2020,
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/k-4-missile-india-test-fires-nuclear-capable-k-4-missile-off-andhra-pradesh-coast-says-report-2166498(accessed April 13, 2021)

NDTV 2019: “India Conducts Successful Night Trail Of Agni-1 Ballistic Missile” 30 October 2019,https://www.ndtv.com/india-

news/india-conducts-successful-night-trail-of-agni-1-ballistic-missile-1940274 (accessed April 13, 2021)

NDTV 2018-1: “’Dhanash’ ballistic missile successfully test-fired,” 23 February 2018, https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/dhanushballistic-missile-successfully-test-fired-1816462(accessed April 13, 2021)

NDTV 2018-2: “India Successfully Test-Fires Nuclear-Capable Agni-IV Missile,” 23 December 2018. https://www.ndtv.com/indianews/india-successfully-test-fires-nuclear-capable-agni-iv-missile-1966895 (accessed May 8, 2022)

Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition, Nagasaki University (RECNA) 2022: https://www.recna.nagasaki-u.ac.jp/recna/fms

Shaikh, Shaan 2021: “India Fires Agni-P Ballistic Missile," Missile Threat, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 20 December
2021, last modified 23 December 2021, https://missilethreat.csis.org/india-fires-agni-p-ballistic-missile/ (accessed May 8, 2022)

Sputnik 2019: “India Conducts Maiden Night Trial of Nuke-Capable Agni-III Missile,” 30 November 2019,https://sputniknews.com/military/201911301077445079-india-conducts-maiden-night-trial-of-nuke-capable-agni-iii-missile/ (accessed
April 13, 2021)

Sundaram, Kumar & Ramana, M. V. 2018: “India and the Policy of No First Use of Nuclear Weapons,” Journal for Pace and Nuclear
Disarmament, Vol 1, 2018 Issue 1, pp.152-168

O’Donell, Frank & Bollfrass, Alxander K. 2020: “India is building nuclear submarines and ICBMs. That’s a $14 billion mistake,” Bulletin of
the Atomic Scientists, 26 February 2020, https://thebulletin.org/2020/02/india-is-building-nuclear-submarines-and-icbms-thats-a-14billion-mistake/# (accessed May 8, 2022)

Pandit, Rajat 2021-1: “India behind China and Pakistan in nuclear-warheads but not worried,” The Times of India, 15 June 2021,
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-behind-china-pakistan-in-nuclear-warheads-but-not-worried/articleshow/83524404.cms(accessed May 8, 2022)

Pandit, Rajat 2021-2: “Key trial of 5,000-km ICBM Agni-V in October,” The Times of India, 24 September 2021,
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/key-trial-of-5000-km-icbm-agni-v-in-october/articleshow/86468298.cms (accessed May 8,
2022)

Press Information Bureau, Government of India 2021: “Surface to Surface Ballistic Missile, Agni-5, successfully launched from APJ Abdul
Kalam Island,” 27 October 2021, https://pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=1767034(accessed May 8, 2022)
7 / 8

Pandit, Rajat 2017:”India successfully tests its first nuclear-capable cruise missile,” The Times of India, 8 November 2017,https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-successfully-tests-its-first-nuclear-capable-cruisemissile/articleshow/61550465.cms(accessed May 8, 2022)

Raghuvanshi, Vivek 2020: “India’s Nirbhay cruise missile test fails,” DefenseNews, 13 October 2020, https://news.yahoo.com/indianirbhay-cruise-missile-test-182636268.html(accessed May 8, 2022)

The Times of India 2020: “India successfully test fires Prithvi II ballistic missiles,” 16 December 2020,
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-successfully-testfires-two-prithvi-2-ballistic-missiles/articleshowprint/79764112.cms(2022.5.8)

Union of Concerned Scientists 2004: “Weapon Materials Basics (2009),” http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear-weapons/nuclearterrorism/fissile-materials-basics#.WUTTElFpyM8(accessed May 8, 2022)

Zeenews 2021: “3 more Rafale fighter jets to land in India today after mid-air refueling in UAE,” 31 March 2021,
https://zeenews.india.com/india/3-more-rafale-fighter-jets-to-land-in-india-today-after-mid-air-refuelling-in-uae-2351737.html (accessed
May 8, 2022)©RECNA Nuclear Warhead Data Monitoring Team8 / 8