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D E M O G R A P H Y I N A RC H A E O LO G Y

Demography in Archaeology is a review of current theory and method in the reconstructionof populations from archaeological data. Starting with a summary of demographic concepts
and methods, the book examines historical and ethnographic sources of demographic evidence
before addressing the methods by which reliable demographic estimates can be made fromskeletal remains, settlement evidence and modern and ancient biomolecules. Recent debatesin palaeodemography are evaluated, new statistical methods for palaeodemographic reconstruction are explained, and the notion that past demographic structures and processes were
substantially different from those pertaining today is critiqued. The book covers a wide span ofevidence, from the evolutionary background of human demography to the inﬂuence of naturaland human-induced catastrophes on population growth and survival. This is essential reading for any archaeologist or anthropologist with an interest in relating the results of ﬁeld andlaboratory studies to broader questions of population structure and dynamics.
andrew t. chamberl ain is Reader in Biological Anthropology at the University ofShefﬁeld.

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General Editor
Graeme Barker, University of Cambridge
Advisory Editors
Elizabeth Slater, University of Liverpool
Peter Bogucki, Princeton University
Books in the series
Pottery in Archaeology, Clive Orton, Paul Tyers and Alan Vince
Vertebrate Taphonomy, R. Lee Lyman
Photography in Archaeology and Conservation, 2nd edition, Peter G. Dorrell
Alluvial Geoarchaeology, A. G. BrownShells, Cheryl Claasen
Zooarchaeology, Elizabeth J. Reitz and Elizabeth S. Wing
Sampling in Archaeology, Clive Orton
Excavation, Steve Roskams
Teeth, 2nd edition, Simon Hillson
Lithics, 2nd edition, William Andrefsky Jr.
Geographical Information Systems in Archaeology, James Conolly and Mark Lake
Demography in Archaeology, Andrew T. Chamberlain
Cambridge Manuals in Archaeology is a series of reference handbooks designed for aninternational audience of upper-level undergraduate and graduate students, and professionalarchaeologists and archaeological scientists in universities, museums, research laboratories
and ﬁeld units. Each book includes a survey of current archaeological practice alongsideessential reference material on contemporary techniques and methodology.

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DEMO GRAPHY IN ARCHAEOLO GY

Andrew T. Chamberlain© Cambridge University Press

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Andrew T. Chamberlain
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Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo
Cambridge University Press
The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge cb2 2ru, UKPublished in the United States of America by Cambridge University Press, New Yorkwww.cambridge.org
Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9780521596510
C Andrew T. Chamberlain 2006

This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception
and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements,
no reproduction of any part may take place without
the written permission of Cambridge University Press.
First published 2006
Printed in the United Kingdom at the University Press, Cambridge
A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Libraryisbn-13 978-0-521-59367-0 hardback
isbn-10 0-521-59367-0 hardback
isbn-13 978-0-521-59651-0 paperback
isbn-10 0-521-59651-3 paperback

Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs forexternal or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does notguarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate.

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To Clive and Stephen, who pointed the way.

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CONTENTS

List of ﬁgures
List of tables
Preface
1 I N T RO D U C T I O N
1.1 The principal concerns of demography
1.1.1 What is a population?
1.1.2 Population characteristics
1.1.3 Demographic data: from individual life histories
to population parameters
1.2 Demography in archaeology
1.2.1 Archaeology and people
1.2.2 Population pressure: cause or effect?
1.2.3 Population structure
1.2.4 Health and disease
1.2.5 Migration
1.3 Sources of evidence
1.3.1 Theoretical models
1.3.2 Ethnographic and historical evidence
1.3.3 Archaeological evidence: skeletal remains,settlements and site catchments
1.3.4 Genetic and evolutionary evidence
1.3.5 Evidence from disease© Cambridge University Press

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contents

2 D E M O G R A P H I C C O N C E P T S , T H E O RY
AND METHODS
2.1 Population structure
2.1.1 Age categories and age distributions
2.1.2 Sex distributions
2.1.3 Other structuring categories
2.2 Population growth and demographic transition
2.2.1 Geometric and exponential growth
2.2.2 Logistic growth
2.2.3 Demographic transition
2.3 Mortality, survivorship and life tables
2.3.1 Mortality
2.3.2 Survivorship2.3.3 Stable populations
2.3.4 The life table
2.3.5 Hazard functions for modelling mortality andsurvivorship
2.4 Fertility and population projection
2.4.1 Fertility
2.4.2 Population projection
2.5 Migration and colonisation
2.5.1 Migration
2.5.2 Colonisation
2.6 Population standardisation and comparison
2.6.1 Population standardisation
2.6.2 Population comparison

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3 H I S TO R I C A L A N D E T H N O G R A P H I C
DEMOGRAPHY
3.1 Documentary sources of demographic data
3.1.1 Vital registration
3.1.2 Censuses

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3.2

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.1.3 Commemorative inscriptions
3.1.4 Other written sources
Families and households
3.2.1 Family units
3.2.2 Family reconstitution
3.2.3 Household size
Longevity, menarche and menopause
3.3.1 Perceptions and misperceptions oflongevity
3.3.2 Menarche and menopause
Historical evidence of migration and colonisation
3.4.1 Migration in pre-industrial Europe
3.4.2 Mass migration and colonisation in themodern era
Hunter-gatherer demography
3.5.1 Population structure in hunter-gatherers
3.5.2 Mortality and fertility in hunter-gatherers
Demography of agricultural populations
3.6.1 Population structure in agricultural
populations
3.6.2 Mortality and fertility in agricultural
populations
Conditions of high mortality
3.7.1 Crisis mortality and natural disasters
3.7.2 Famine
3.7.3 Epidemic disease
3.7.4 Conﬂict mortality

4 A RC H A E O LO G I C A L D E M O G R A P H Y
4.1 Past population structure
4.1.1 Background to the palaeodemography debate
4.1.2 The challenge by Bocquet-Appel and Masset© Cambridge University Press

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4.2

4.3

4.4

4.5

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4.1.3 Uniformitarian assumptions in palaeodemography
4.1.4 Bias in samples and in estimation
Estimation of sex
4.2.1 Human sex differences
4.2.2 Morphological sex differences in pre-adolescentskeletons
4.2.3 Morphological sex differences in adult skeletons
4.2.4 Accuracy of sex estimation
4.2.5 Biomolecular methods of sex estimation
Estimation of age at death
4.3.1 Human skeletal development and ageing
4.3.2 Age estimation in fetuses and children
4.3.3 Age estimation in adults: macroscopic methods
4.3.4 Age estimation in adults: microscopic methods
Bayesian and maximum likelihood approaches to age
estimation
4.4.1 General principles in estimating age frommorphological indicators
4.4.2 Bayes’ theorem and its application to age
estimation
4.4.3 Evaluative studies of Bayesian methods in age
estimation
4.4.4 Alternative ways of modelling likelihoods:
transition analysis and latent traits
4.4.5 Perinatal age estimation from long bone length
4.4.6 Age estimation and catastrophic mortality
proﬁles
4.4.7 Prospects for the future
Estimation of population numbers from archaeologicaldata4.5.1 House sizes and ﬂoor areas
4.5.2 Settlement sizes
4.5.3 Site catchments and resource utilisation

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4.5.4 Monitoring population size from radiocarbon
dating distributions
5 E VO LU T I O NA RY A N D G E N E T I C
PA L A E O D E M O G R A P H Y
5.1 Age and sex structure in animal populations
5.1.1 Natural animal populations
5.1.2 Demography of non-human primates
5.2 Demography of fossil hominids
5.2.1 Maturation times and longevity in fossilhominids
5.2.2 Demography of Australopithecus and early Homo
5.2.3 Demography of Homo heidelbergensis and Homoneanderthalensis
5.3 Human genetic palaeodemography
5.3.1 Genetic studies of present-day populations
5.3.2 Genetic studies of ancient populations

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6 DEMOGRAPHY AND DISEASE
6.1 Disease in archaeological populations
6.1.1 Concepts and evidence of disease
6.1.2 Infectious and epidemic diseases
6.1.3 Metabolic, nutritional and deﬁciency diseases
6.1.4 Neoplastic and congenital diseases
6.1.5 Trauma and homicide
6.2 Social and demographic impacts of disease
6.2.1 Demographic responses to disease
6.2.2 Social responses to disease

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7 C O N C LU D I N G R E M A R K S
7.1 The relevance of demography for archaeology
7.2 How meaningful are the results of palaeodemographic
analysis?

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xiicontents

7.3 How different were populations in the past?
7.4 Demographic processes and cultural change
7.5 Challenges for the future
References
Index© Cambridge University Press

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FIGURES

2.1
2.2

2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.3

Age distribution in the Ache, a hunter-gatherer group ineastern Paraguay.
page 16
Triangular graph of mortality depicting the relative
proportions of juvenile, prime-adult and old-adultindividuals.
18
Exponential and logistic growth.
21
Estimated population growth in England and Wales between
AD 1100 and 1800.
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Population transition in France, eighteenth and nineteenth
centuries.
24
Age-speciﬁc mortality in female Ache hunter-gatherers.
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Examples of the general pattern of age-speciﬁc variation inhuman female fertility.
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Age-speciﬁc migration rates in Australia.
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Survivorship at the Tlajinga 33 apartment compound at
Teotihuacan, Mexico.
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Age heaping and year avoidance in the burial registers from anineteenth-century hospital.
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Age-speciﬁc probability of death calculated from Roman
tombstone inscriptions.
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Age structures of four hunter-gatherer populations.
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figuresAge-speciﬁc probability of death in three hunter-gatherer
populations.
3.5 Age-speciﬁc fertility in hunter-gatherer women.
3.6 Age structure in agricultural populations.
3.7 Survivorship in agricultural populations.
3.8 Age-speciﬁc fertility in women from agricultural
populations.
3.9 Age-speciﬁc mortality in catastrophic ﬂoods.
3.10 Age-speciﬁc mortality during famines in Berarprovince, India.
3.11 Crude birth and death rates in Berar province, India.
3.12 Age-speciﬁc death rates from inﬂuenza.
3.13 Distribution of deaths from plague in Penrith.
3.14 Age distribution of civilian deaths in Srebrenica.
3.15 Age distribution of combatant deaths.
4.1 Age-speciﬁc mortality (percentage of deaths) in theLibben cemetery.
4.2 Juvenility index in stable populations with different mortality
levels and rates of population growth.
4.3 Age-speciﬁc mortality in four archaeological samples ofhuman skeletal remains.
4.4 Age-speciﬁc mortality in hunter-gatherers and subsistence
agriculturalists.
4.5 Unfused epiphysis at the proximal end of the femur.
4.6 Growth proﬁles constructed from archaeological samples ofskeletal remains, compared to the modern Denver growthstandard.
4.7 Age-related changes in the pubic symphysis.
4.8 Pattern of wear on the occlusal surfaces of the lower teeth.
4.9 Estimated distribution of age at death for Loisy-en-Brie.
4.10 Distribution of gestational ages estimated from thediaphyseal lengths of femurs.
3.4© Cambridge University Press

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figures

4.11 Distribution of adult ages at death for two catastrophic
skeletal assemblages.
4.12 Proxy archaeological data indicating relative changes in
population size in Roman London.
4.13 Distribution of 14 C dates obtained on human bone from
Mesolithic and early Neolithic archaeological sites in Britain.
5.1 Survivorship curves and average mortality for natural cervid
populations.
5.2 Survivorship curves for cercopithecine monkeys, Pantroglodytes and Homo sapiens.
5.3 Survivorship curves for cercopithecine monkeys, Pantroglodytes and Homo sapiens, compared to a common
developmental scale.
5.4 Age distributions in samples of Homo heidelbergensis andHomo neanderthalensis.
6.1 Osteomyelitis in an arm bone.
6.2 Season of mortality in Rome.
6.3 Cribra orbitalia.
6.4 Nitrogen isotope ratios in infant skeletons.

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TA B L E S

2.1 Changes in population parameters during thedemographic transition.
page 23
2.2 Life table for Northern Ache females.
29
2.3 Leslie matrix for Northern Ache females.
37
2.4 Comparison of mortality in the Early Period (AD 300–550)
and the Late Period (AD 550–700) at the Tlajinga 33 site atTeotihuacan, Mexico.
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3.1 Data recorded on a family reconstitution form (FRF).
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3.2 Population structure from census data for hunter-gatherer
and subsistence-farming populations.
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3.3 Age-speciﬁc risk of death in hunter-gatherer populations.
63
4.1 Factors contributing to differences between the skeletons ofhuman adult males and females.
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4.2 Options for the selection of prior probabilities of age inBayesian age estimation.
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4.3 Distribution of femoral-head trabecular involution in areference series.
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4.4 Diaphyseal length of femurs in known-age individuals.
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4.5 Posterior probabilities of gestational age given femur length.
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5.1 Average duration (in years) of the formation of teeth.
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5.2 Numbers and proportions of old adults in mortality samples.
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5.3 Proportions of subadults in samples of fossil hominids.
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5.4 Distributions of age at death in Homo heidelbergensis andHomo neanderthalensis.
6.1 Changes in prevalence of selected health conditions at thetransition from foraging to farming.
6.2 Modern frequencies of congenital diseases (per thousand livebirths) that are diagnosable from skeletal remains.
6.3 Proportions of juveniles and of adult females in skeletal
assemblages from European prehistoric conﬂict sites.

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P R E FAC E

The original impetus to write this volume emerged nearly a decade ago. It
stemmed from a dissatisfaction, in fact a cognitive dissonance, between on
the one hand the need to instruct graduate students in the available procedures for the reconstruction of past populations from skeletal remains,
and on the other hand a profound unease at the results generated by such
exercises. Fortunately it turned out that several researchers were simultaneously trying to square the same circle, and although the gestation ofthis book has been inordinately long, it has beneﬁted from the insights
provided by the combined endeavours of a new generation of anthropologists, archaeologists, population geneticists and biostatisticians whose
research has reinvigorated the science of palaeodemography. In this book
I have attempted to summarise and evaluate some of these exciting new
developments, as well as to revisit some of the older and more establishedprocedures for inferring population parameters from archaeological evidence.
Many individuals and organisations have knowingly or unwittingly contributed to the production of this book. Thanks are due ﬁrst of all to thestimulating intellectual environment provided by colleagues and students
at the University of Shefﬁeld, and to the long-standing policy of the Department of Archaeology to resource periods of study leave for some of its academic staff. Some of the ideas expressed in this book have been trialled on
successive cohorts of students enrolled on the Human Osteology masters© Cambridge University Press

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training programme at the University of Shefﬁeld. A few of those students
have helped me substantially by contributing to the research reported here
through their graduate and postdoctoral studies, in particular Dr Rebecca
Gowland of the University of Cambridge and Dr Jo Buckberry of the University of Bradford. Other colleagues have been generous with their data,
ideas and opinions – too many to name them all individually, but a particular debt of thanks is owed to Professor Charlotte Roberts of the Universityof Durham who sensibly reminded me of the inverse correlation between
health and mortality! And quietly watching from the sidelines have been
my editors at Cambridge University Press, whose enduring patience andsupport, ﬂavoured with occasional gentle cajoling, have been invaluable.
Funding for some of my research has been provided by the Artsand Humanities Research Council, and several individuals and organisations have facilitated the study of unpublished skeletal remains. LouiseHumphrey (Natural History Museum) and Eugenia Cunha (Coimbra) permitted access to their collections of known-age skeletons, and James Vaupel(Director of the Max Planck Institute of Demographic Research) kindly
invited me to participate in some of the research projects sponsored by hisInstitute.

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