"CEAC Commentary" introduces news analyses andopinions in Japan on the concept of an East AsianCommunity, but they do not represent the views ofCEAC as an institution.

April 27, 2012

A Misunderstanding on North Korean issue
By SUZUKI Keisuke
Allegedly, North Korea has announced that it is planning to launch a satellite inApril. As previous similar cases show, the planned satellite launch is likely to be thedisguise of a ballistic missile test. Even if it is a rocket launch, it is technicallyinterchangeable with a ballistic missile test. It is obvious that the planned satellite
launch will pose a serious threat to Japan’s national security. I have long been concernedthat in our country the issues of nuclear tests and missile launches by the North are lessseriously considered to be “its own problems” than the abduction issue. Of course, theabduction issue is the highest-priority problem that should be politically tackled.
However, the issues of nuclear tests and missile launches are as important as theabduction issue from the perspective of protecting the security of the Japanese land andpeople.
Fundamentally, if North Korea has nuclear weapons and succeeds intransforming them into small-sized ones, the highest probability is that the country will
load a warhead on the Rodong, which is highly reliable and has also reached asignificant technical level. Its range suggests that it is quite likely to target Japan. Inaddition, the Taepodong, which is speculated to be linked to the planned satellite launch,can be considered to target the United States. It is very likely that the North’s effort toincrease the accuracy level of the missile is intended to weaken the U.S. will to takemilitary actions in East Asia.
Undoubtedly, all of these moves have the largest security impact on Japan, noton North Korea’s ally China, South Korea, the United States or Russia. Unless Japanembarks on its full endeavor to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and to address theproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), it may cause a major problem inthe future of our country. Japan has no significant bargaining chips in terms of militaryand critical economic means in its negotiation with North Korea. Therefore, our country
cannot get significant results though bilateral negotiations with the North. This is thecase with all of the abduction, nuclear and missiles issues. The only way for Japan toreduce North Korean risks is to make sure that China be obliged to put pressure on theNorth while closely collaborating with the United States.

In particular, regarding our relationship with the United States, although it is
our major ally, we should face up to the sheer reality that, geopolitically, Japan has aneven greater sense of crisis and is also facing an even more serious or vital security
threat from North Korea. If our country does not approach the problem and urge theUnited States to collaborate with a properly grave sense of crisis, even the major ally
will not react with great earnestness. The Japan-U.S. alliance is not such a bilateralframework in which Japan automatically receives services in a passive mode. I should
say that the current Japanese administration does not have an adequate recognition ofthis. If Japan mishandles the situation immediately after the North Korea’s change of its
leader, it can inflict greater damage on national interests than in usual situations. Japanneeds to turn around the situation as soon as possible.
(This is the English translation of an article written by Mr. SUZUKI Keisuke,
former Member of the House of Representatives, which originally appeared on theBBS "Hyakka-Somei" of CEAC on March 29, 2012.)