Carbon Neutrality Policy Updates in ASEAN
The 33rd "Clean Coal Day in Japan" International Symposium
2 September 2024
Dr Zulfikar Yurnaidi
HeadEnergy Modelling and Policy Planning (MPP) and Energy Efficiency & Conservation (CEE) Department
ASEAN Centre for Energy

Decarbonization in ASEAN Energy Sector is Guided by APAECASEAN Center for Energy RoleCatalyst
To unify and strengthen ASEAN Energy Cooperation by
providing platform for sharing, policy advisory, bestpractices, capacity building.

Knowledge Hub
To provide a knowledge repository for ASEAN Member
States (AMS) and services through data Management,publication, dissemination.

Think Tank
To assist AMS on research and identifying practical &specific solution policies, legal & regulatory framework,technologies, innovative Solutions

Enhancing Energy Connectivity and Market
Integration in ASEAN to Achieve Energy Security,Accessibility, Affordability & Sustainability for All
Accelerating Energy Transition andStrengthening Energy Resilience ThroughGreater Innovation and Cooperation

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ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC)
Phase II (2016-2025)
Focus

Program Area & Key Strategy
ASEAN Power Grid: Expand MPT, Grid resiliency andclean & renewable energy integration
Trans ASEAN Gas Pipeline : Develop Common Gas
Market by LNG connectivity and accessibility
Clean Coal Utilization: Optimize the role of Clean Coal inenergy transition
Energy Efficiency: Reduce energy intensity by 32% in2025 based on 2005 level
Renewable Energy: Achieve 23% share of RE in ASEAN
energy mix and 35% share of RE in ASEAN installed
Capacity
Regional Energy Policy and Planning: Advance energy
policy and accelerate region’s energy transition &resilience
Nuclear Energy: Build human resources capabilities onnuclear technology for power generation2

Energy Pathways in ASEAN
Energy Demand By Sector

 Baseline Scenario projected a 4x of energy required to fuelthe economic growth from 2020 to 2050. Energy efficiency
measures reduce the need of energy to 3x and 2.7x in ATSand APS.
 LCO Scenario reduces the demand further to 2.5x of 2020.
 In all scenarios, fossil fuels remain the largest component.
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Industry and transport sectors continue to be thehighest energy consuming sectors in the region,
dominated by oil especially in transport
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Emerging Technologies: Storage, Nuclear, Interconnection

 As the needs of installed capacity decrease due to energy
efficiency, clean energy penetrates the power system.
 Even with the same level of electricity need in APS, lower installed  Realisation of ASEAN’s cross-border interconnection system withcapacity is required in LCO Scenario. Coal, bioenergy, & nuclear
higher penetration of variable renewable energy (solar and wind),replaces natural gas, hydro, solar & wind with storage penetration.
under the ASEAN Power Grid.
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The ASEAN Power Grid - Work Priorities and Regional Collaboration
Infrastructure
Development• 18 priority
interconnection hasbeen identified• 9 out 18 has been
operated• Several are currently
on-going FS: Sumatra–P. Malaysia (new) &Kalimantan – Sabah(new), Thailand –Malaysia (upgradeexisting)

ASEAN
Interconnection
Master Plan
Study (AIMS) III
Phase 1:
Capacity Expansion
Planning(2020, updated in 2022)
Phase 2:
Grid Performance
Analysis(2020, updated in 2022)

MarketDevelopment• Lao PDR – Thailand –Malaysia PIP (2019)• Lao PDR – Thailand –Malaysia – Singapore
PIP (2022)• Expansion to othersubregion
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Phase 3:
Multilateral MarketAnalysis(2024)

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Key Factors: Critical Minerals

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Source: Energy
Transitions Commission – July 2023

Source: Mineral Supply Data from USGS Minerals Commodities Summaries 2022

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Key Factors: Investment and Financing
Investment Needs until 2050
Investment – Power

AEO7: ATS

2nd REO2: 1.5S

879 billion

2,834 - 3,723 billion

Investment – All Energy

6,318 - 7,391 billion

RE in Elect. Generation

50.4%

90%

Electricity Share in TFEC

25.5%52%*) 2nd RE Outlook investment need covers 2018-2050

 IEA Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2022, annual energy investment in SustainableDevelopment Scenario (SDS) is USD 190 billion by 2030
 In comparison, 2nd RE Outlook 1.5S is USD 192-224 billion (all energy) and USD 55-113
billion (power)
 In comparison, AEO7 ATS is USD 30 billion (power)
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7Net Zero Target and Carbon Pricing as Financing Mechanism
In the context of ASEAN countries, carbon pricing iswidely recognized as a key instrument for climatechange mitigation within their respective climate
policies or national climate reports. Nearly all thesenations are at various stages of engagement withcarbon pricing policies, ranging from assessment anddesign to implementation.
As of now, the only operational ETS within ASEAN is
Indonesia's, launched in February 2023. This ETS
specifically targets emissions from coal-fired power
plants. On the other hand, Singapore introduced acarbon tax in 2019, marking another significant step inthe region's carbon pricing initiatives.
Regarding the carbon market, almost all AMS areinvolved in carbon credit activities, which arepredominantly voluntary. This widespread participation
highlights the region's commitment to exploring diverse
approaches to carbon management and climatechange mitigation.
Source: ACE, “Progress of Carbon Pricing in ASEAN to Support theShift Towards a Low Carbon Economy” (2024)
One Community for Sustainable Energy8Transition Technology (and Financing)

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To know more about the latest ACE Publications,those are available for download from:aseanenergy.org/category/publications/For further information or to provide feedback, please contact ACE atsecretariat@aseanenergy.org

Thank You