NEAT Working Group on“Toward 2050 Carbon Neutrality in East Asia”1Final ReportTokyo
17th August 2021

1Recognizing APT countries have multiple timeline targets to achieve carbon neutrality, this Working

Group will consider how to achieve carbon neutrality while respecting them.

1. Background
Under the Paris Agreement, all the Parties agreed to a long-term temperature
goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to1.5°C above the pre-industrial levels. After the Paris Agreement agreed, theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Special Report “Global Warmingof 1.5°C” (hereafter, the 1.5°C Special Report), published in 2018, highlighted robust
differences in regional climate characteristics between global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C,
and indicated that it is necessary to achieve global net-zero CO2 emissions around 2050
to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels.
To keep a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, there is a growing
momentum for making commitments to achieve carbon neutrality or net-zero emissions
by 2050. Reflecting the IPCC 1.5°C Special Report, in 2019 UN Secretary-General
António Guterres called on all world leaders to make concrete and realistic plans toachieve carbon neutrality by 2050. At the Carbis Bay G7 Summit of 2021, leaders of G7
member countries made a commitment to 2050 carbon neutrality2 and called upon allcountries, in particular major emissions economies, to join their efforts in realisingcarbon neutrality by 2050. Around 100 countries have already committed to 2050
carbon neutrality.3
As of July 2021, among APT countries, three countries (Japan, Republic of Korea,and Lao PDR4) committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, two countries (Chinaand Indonesia) by 2060, and one country (Singapore) as soon as possible in the second
half of this century. Moreover, one country (Cambodia) showed an ambitious GHG
emission reduction target (a scenario) for achieving a negative emission in 2030 basedon a larger carbon sinks in the forest sector. The rest of the countries in the region havenot made carbon neutrality commitments yet. There are, however, at least two reasonsfor East Asian countries to consider their commitments to 2050 carbon neutrality.

2The G7 commitment on 2050 carbon neutrality refers to a net-zero GHG emissions target. However, in this conceptpaper, a carbon neutrality refers to a net-zero CO2 emission target unless specifically mentioned.
327 member countries of the European Union are counted individually.

4

Lao PDR is a member of the Climate Ambition Alliance which pursues net-zero emissions by 2050. Cambodia andMyanmar are also the members of this alliance.

1First, East Asia is vulnerable to various climate-related risks and can get better offby limiting global warming to 1.5°C, rather than 2°C, above preindustrial levels. TheIPCC 1.5°C Special Report highlighted “[l]imiting warming to 1.5°C compared with 2°Cis projected to result in smaller net reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat, andpotentially other cereal crops, particularly in…Southeast Asia.” Eastern Asia is also oneof the regions where risks from heavy precipitation events are projected to be higher at2°C compared to 1.5°C of global warming. Therefore, it is important for East Asia to join
the global effort to strive for 2050 carbon neutrality with an aim to achieving the 1.5°Cgoal.
Second, as momentum towards decarbonisation grows globally, APT countries arealso exposed to transition risks, and it is important to ensure that they are able torespond to these risks. For example, the EU is introducing carbon border adjustment
measures, and there are similar discussions in the US. At the corporate level, there isalso a growing movement to decarbonise supply chains as a whole, and companies in
East Asian in the global supply chains are likely to be required to take responsemeasures in the future. National efforts to move towards 2050 carbon neutrality in 2050
will help mitigate these risks.
Despite these reasons for striving to achieve 2050 carbon neutrality, there are stillseveral challenges and concerns for making such commitments. They include, forexample, technological capacity and its uncertainty, the scale of investment, the scaleand speed of socio-economic and energy/land transformation, and concerns over equity.
Many public figures pointed out that stimulus recovery packages are expected tospearhead structural transformation towards carbon neutrality, but their positive
outcomes have yet to be seen.

2. Objective
This Working Group will examine what can be done to achieve carbon neutrality by
2050 in East Asia and explores opportunities for regional cooperation among ASEAN+3(APT) countries to facilitate near- to long-term national and subnational actions.
Furthermore, Japan is preparing a report on the climate change situation in the ASEAN
region through the framework of the Japan-ASEAN Integration Fund. While referring tosuch existing efforts, we will compile policy recommendations.
23. Challenges
Against these backgrounds, this Working Group will examine what can be done toachieve carbon neutrality by 2050 in East Asia, by discussing the followings questions: (1)How can stimulus recovery packages for COVID-19 disaster contribute to socio-economicand energy structural changes toward decarbonisation? If not, what are the challenges andhow can they be overcome?; and, (2) How can APT countries collaborate together at theregional level to commit and achieve carbon neutrality, including mutual learning fordeveloping strategies and roadmaps for achieving it, development and transfer ofdecarbonising technologies, and innovation/harmonisation of policy schemes such as
mobilising finance for green recovery (i.e. for clean energy investments) and transition
management (or a “just transition”) involving the private and public sectors? How canincreasing geopolitical tension in the region be mitigated through such regional
collaboration toward 2050 carbon neutrality?

4. Discussions at the Working Group meeting
22 experts from APT member think tanks and the sponsoring organization, the Japan
Forum on International Relations (JFIR), took part in a working group meeting online on 17
August 2021 which was organized in a keynote address and two sessions.
The theme of Session I was "How can stimulus recovery packages for COVID-19
pandemic

contribute tosocio-economic and energy

structuralchanges toward

decarbonisation?". Specifically, the Working Group discussed the following two points: "How can a country mobilise finance for green recovery, including national fiscal policy
reforms, private financing, and utilisation of regional/international funds?"; and, "What are
the challenges and how can they be overcome?”
Participants pointed out the importance of combining green recovery and justtransition, phasing out coal power and transforming the energy sector to avoid carbon
lock-in, co-innovation of decarbonizing technologies, and climate budget tagging. The roleof central banks to promoting climate-friendly investment was also discussed.
The theme of Session II was "How can APT countries collaborate together at theregional level to commit and achieve carbon neutrality?". Specifically, the Working Group3

discussed the following four points: “How can APT countries mutually learn ways todevelop strategies and roadmaps for achieving carbon neutrality?”; “How can APTcountries collaborate for development and transfer of decarbonising technologies within
the region?”; “How can APT countries promote together long-term policy schemes fortransition management (or just transition”) involving the private and public sectors?”; and,“How can increasing geopolitical tension in the region be mitigated through such regional
collaboration toward 2050 carbon neutrality?”
Participants discussed the importance of making political commitment on 2050 carbon
neutrality, taking into account developmental concerns, socio-economic situation, andgeographical situation, and multiple benefits of adaptation. Several participants mentioned
the potential of regional collaboration for fostering EV industry in the region. Huge
potential of regional cooperation, in particular between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia
was also pointed out. Several participants pointed out that collaboration for carbon
neutrality can be built upon existing framework such as APT dialogue.

5. Policy Recommendations
Based on the discussions above, the Working Group on “Toward 2050 Carbon
Neutrality in East Asia” summarized the following policy recommendations:⚫

Whileconsideringdevelopmentalconcerns,social-economicsituation

andgeographical situation, APT governments should make political commitments toaccelerating efforts to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, or 2060 at latest, as well as toset and achieve the aligned 2030 emissions reduction targets, thereby sending strong
signals to the market and society.
⚫

In order to strengthen policy-making capacity for carbon neutrality, APT countries
should enhance mutual learning on scenarios and roadmap development andstrengthen the modelling capacity for long-term projections.

⚫

APT governments should deliver green stimulus packages to recover from theCOVID-19 pandemic with an aim to both facilitating transformation of economic,
energy and social systems toward decarbonisation and ensuring just transition whichallows such transformation to be made in a smooth and “no-one-left-behind” manner,4

including reskilling of workers, green job creation, and financial support for them.
⚫

APT governments should exercise climate budget tagging in designing green recovery
stimulus package, and general budget in general, which can significantly increase thetransparency in the financial system and pave the way for multifaceted transformationin climate-friendly technology and market expansion⚫

APT governments should take advantage of diversity in the region in order to promote
regional cooperation in the pursuit of raising climate ambition toward carbon
neutrality. In particular, cooperation between Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia hashuge potential in terms of technology and industrial development such as renewableenergy, hydrogen and EV, as well as finance for clean energy transition.

[END]

5

List of Participants

BruneiSufina Salleh
Special Duties Officer II, Brunei Darussalam Climate Change Secretariat
Adeline Liew
Research Officer, Brunei Darussalam Climate Change SecretariatCambodia
HAK Mao
Director of the Department of Climate Change of the General Secretariat of the National
Council for Sustainable Development
Chheang Vannarith
President of Asian Vision Institute (AVI)
Keo Piseth
Vice president of AVI
HOR Dolla
Deputy bureau chief of General Department of ASEAN
Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International cooperation of Cambodia

China
DONG Liang
Research Fellow, Institute of Asian Studies, China Foreign Affairs University
MIAO Ji
Research fellow, Institute of Asian Studies, China Foreign Affairs UniversityIndonesia
Adhityani Putri (Dhitri)Founder and Executive Director of Yayasan Indonesia Cerah (CERAH).
Evi Fitriani
Professor of International Relations, Faculty of Social and Political Sciences,
Universitas Indonesia

6Japan[WG Members]*Director of the WG
TAMURA Kentaro*
Programme Director, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies
ARINO Yousuke
Policy Researcher, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies[The Japan Forum on International Relations]
WATANABE Mayu
President, JFIRKIKUCHI Yona
Director and Senior Research Fellow, JFIR

Korea
Kim Hyung Jong
Professor, Yonsei University

Laos
Bounphieng Pheuaphetlangsy
Deputy Director of Strategic and International Studies Division
Institute of Foreign Affairs

Malaysia
Darshan JOSHIAnalyst in the Technology, Innovation and Environment and Sustainability (TIES) division,
ISIS Malaysia

Philippines
Maureen Ane D. Rosellon
Supervising Research Specialist of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS)Jean Carlos
Secretariat, Philippine APEC Study Center Network (PASCN)
Melalyn C. Mantaring
Secretariat, Philippine APEC Study Center Network (PASCN)
Singapore7

Chen Gang
Senior Research Fellow, East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore

VietnamNguyen Anh Tuan
Deputy Director General, Institute of Foreign Policy and Strategic Studies Diplomatic Academy ofViet Nam

In Alphabetical Order of Country Name8