International Symposium

Climate Change Effects on
Fish and Fisheries:
Forecasting Impacts, Assessing Ecosystem Responses,
and Evaluating Management Strategies

April 25 – 29, 2010
Sendai, Japan

Table of Contents
Welcome�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� v
Organizers and Sponsors��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� vi
Symposium Timetable ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� viii
List of Sessions and Workshops����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ix
Notes for Guidance�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� x
Sendai International Center Floor Plan���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� x
Schedules������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 1
Abstracts
Day 1 Plenary Session��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������49
Theme Session P1-D1
Forecasting impacts: From climate to fish ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������51
Theme Session P2
Forecasting impacts: From fish to markets��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������75
Day 4 Plenary Session P3
Sustainable strategies in a warming climate������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������79
Theme Session A1
Downscaling variables from global models������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������87
Theme Session A2
Species-specific responses: Changes in growth, reproductive success, mortality,
spatial distribution, and adaptation��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������95
Theme Session B1
Assessing ecosystem responses: Impacts on community structure, biodiversity,
energy flow and carrying capacity ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������129
Theme Session B2
Comparing responses to climate variability among nearshore, shelf andoceanic regions������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������149
Theme Session C1
Impacts on fisheries and coastal communities ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������163
Theme Session C2
Evaluating human responses, management strategies and economic implications ����������������������������������175
Theme Session D2
Contemporary and next generation climate and oceanographic models, technical advances and new
approaches��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������187
GP Session
General Poster Session������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������199

iii

W1 Workshop
Reducing global and national vulnerability to climate change in thefisheries sectors: Policy perspectives post Copenhagen��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 205
W2 Workshop
Potential impacts of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems and fisheries ����������������������������������������� 207
W3 Workshop
Coupled climate-to-fish-to-fishers models for understanding mechanisms underlying low frequency
fluctuations in small pelagic fish and projecting its future����������������������������������������������������������������������� 215
W4 Workshop
Salmon workshop on climate change������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 219
W5 Workshop
Networking across global marine “hotspots”������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 227
W6 Workshop
Examining the linkages between physics and fish: How do zooplankton and krill data sets improve ourunderstanding of the impacts of climate change on fisheries?����������������������������������������������������������������� 235

Author Index�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 239
Registrants������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 249

Abstracts for oral presentations are sorted first by session and then by presentation time. Abstracts for posters
are sorted by session and then by paper ID number. Presenter name is in bold-face type and underlined. Some
abstracts in this collection are not edited and are printed in the condition they were received.

iv

Welcome
We welcome you to the beautiful city of Sendai for the International Symposium on “Climate Change
Effects on Fish and Fisheries: Forecasting Impacts, Assessing Ecosystem Responses, and Evaluating
Management Strategies”.
The Symposium is providing an opportunity for scientists and policymakers to discuss the potential
impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems and our uses of these ecosystems, and to consider
strategies that society can take to be prepared for anticipated impacts on fish and fisheries. Response tothis event has exceeded our expectations, with more than 350 abstracts submitted by scientists from over
40 countries. The Symposium is arranged around ten theme sessions, with six workshops preceding themeeting. These sessions and workshops encompass a broad range of topics that will provide a global
perspective on climate change and the future of the World’s fisheries.
This event is the culmination of the planning and preparation of many individuals and organizations.
It was made possible by your participation, by the hard work of the local organizers and professionals
at the PICES and ICES Secretariats, and by the generous financial support from our sponsors. Without
the funds that these organizations entrusted to us, it would have been impossible to achieve our aim ofconvening a symposium of global scope. We also extend our sincere thanks to all session and workshop
convenors, and members of the ICES/PICES Working Group on Forecasting Climate Change Impacts
on Fish and Shellfish (WGFCCIFS) for their efforts and valuable advice that resulted in an exciting
scientific program.
During this week, you will have the opportunity to immerse yourself in the issues, challenges andscience of climate change and its influence on marine ecosystems. We anticipate that history willremember this Symposium and its key results as a turning point in addressing the consequences andimplications of climate change on fish and fisheries.
We hope our meeting in Sendai will be productive, intellectually rewarding, and we look forward tohearing your ideas and including them in a Symposium proceedings. Enjoy the Symposium!

Anne B. Hollowed, Manuel Barange, Shin-ichi Ito, Suam Kim and Harald Loeng
Symposium convenorsv

Organizers and Sponsors
Symposium Convenors
Anne Hollowed (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Manuel Barange (GLOBEC International Project Office)Shin-ichi Ito (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)
Suam Kim (Pukyong National University, Republic of Korea)
Harald Loeng (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)

Scientific Steering Committee
Jürgen Alheit (Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Germany)
Richard Beamish (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada; NPAFC)
Keith Brander (National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark)Kevern Cochrane (Fishery Resources Division, Food and Agricultural Organization)
Kenneth Drinkwater (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
Michael Foreman (Institute of Ocean Science, DFO, Canada)
Jonathan Hare (Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Jason Holt (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, UK)
Jacquelynne King (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)Franz Mueter (School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA)
Carl O’Brien (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK)
Thomas Okey (Pew Fellow / UVic / Bamfield Marine Station, Canada)
Myron Peck (Center for Marine and Climate Research, University of Hamburg, Germany)
Valdimir Radchenko (Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, Russia)
Jake Rice (Ecosystem Science Directorate, DFO, Canada)
Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Hokkaido University, Japan)
Akihiko Yatsu (Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)

Symposium Organizing Committee
Jürgen Alheit (IOC)Alexander Bychkov (PICES)
Cassandra de Young (FAO)
Yukimasa Ishida (FRA, Japan; NPAFC)
Adolf Kellermann (ICES)
Yukihiro Nojiri (NIES)
Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Hokkaido University, Japan)

Local Organizers
Host: Fisheries Research Agency of Japan (FRA)
Local arrangements: Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute (TNFRI), FRA
Yukimasa Ishida
Manpei Shuzuki
Hiroyasu Adachi
Katsumi Yokouchi
Shin-ichi ItoviPrimary International Sponsors

Primary Local Sponsors

North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES)International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO)

Fisheries Research Agency of Japan (FRA)
Hokkaido University Global Center of Excellence(COE) Program on “Establishment of Center for
Integrated Field Environmental Science” (HUGCOE)

Co-sponsoring Organizations
Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO)
Integrated Climate System Analysis and Prediction, Germany (CLISAP)
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC)International Pacific Halibut Commission (IPHC)
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)
Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute (KORDI)
National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility: Adaptation Research
		 Network for Marine Biodiversity and Resources (NCCARF)
National Institute of Environmental Studies, Japan (NIES)
National Marine Fisheries Service of NOAA (NMFS)
North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission (NPAFC)
North Pacific Research Board (NPRB)
Pacific Salmon Foundation (PSF)
Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR)
Sendai Tourism and Convention Bureau (STCB)The World Bank (WB)
INTERNATIONAL PACIFICHALIBUT COMMISSION

NIES

STSB

Endorsing Organizations
Fisheries Agency, Japan (JFA)Newspaper Company “The Kahoku Shimpo”
The Japanese Society of Fisheries Oceanography (JSFO)
The Japanese Society of Fisheries Science (JSFS)The Oceanography Society of Japan (JOS)The Kahoku Shimpo
JSFO

vii

Symposium Timetable
Sunday, April 25
09:00
17:30

Workshop W1(Room 7, 3F)
13:00

Workshop W6(Room 7, 3F)

Workshop W2(Room 2, 1F)

Workshop W3(Room 6, 3F)

Workshop W4(Room 1, 1F)

Workshop W5(Room 4, 2F)

Monday, April 26
OPENING SESSION(Tachibana Hall, 2F)
08:30

Welcome address on behalf of Symposium convenors

08:40

Welcome address on behalf of the host country

08:50

Notes from the Local Organizing Committee

08:55
10:40

Day 1 Plenary Session(Tachibana Hall, 2F)

11:00
13:00

Theme Session P1-D1

Theme Session P2(Tachibana Hall, 2F)(Hagi Hall, 2F)

14:30
18:30

Theme Session P1-D1

Theme Session A2(Tachibana Hall, 2F)(Hagi Hall, 2F)

Welcome Reception

19:30
21:30

(Ballroom of Sendai Excel Hotel Tokyu)

Tuesday, April 27
09:00
13:20

Theme Session B1(Tachibana Hall, 2F)

Theme Session A2(Hagi Hall, 2F)

14:30
18:30

Theme Session B1

Theme Session A1(Tachibana Hall, 2F)(Hagi Hall, 2F)

Poster Session

18:30
20:30

(Sakura Hall, 2F)

Wednesday, April 28
09:00
13:15

Theme Session C1

Theme Session B2(Tachibana Hall, 2F)(Hagi Hall, 2F)

14:30
18:30

Theme Session C2

Theme Session D2(Tachibana Hall, 2F)(Hagi Hall, 2F)

18:30
20:30

Poster Session(Sakura Hall, 2F)

Thursday, April 29
09:00
12:00

Day 4 Plenary Session P3(Tachibana Hall, 2F)

CLOSING SESSION(Tachibana Hall, 2F)
12:00

Outcomes from the Symposium by Dr. Steven Murawski

12:20

Comments from the audience

12:40

Best Presentations Awards

12:50
13:00

Closing remarks by Symposium convenors

All Sessions and Workshops will be held at the Sendai International Center.

viii

List of Sessions and Workshops
P1-D1

Forecasting impacts: From climate to fish

P2

Forecasting impacts: From fish to markets

P3

Sustainable strategies in a warming climate

A1

Downscaling variables from global models

A2

Species-specific responses: Changes in growth, reproductive success, mortality, spatial distribution,
and adaptation

B1

Assessing ecosystem responses: Impacts on community structure, biodiversity, energy flow andcarrying capacity

B2

Comparing responses to climate variability among nearshore, shelf and oceanic regions

C1

Impacts on fisheries and coastal communities

C2

Evaluating human responses, management strategies and economic implications

D2

Contemporary and next generation climate and oceanographic models, technical advances and new
approaches

GP

General Poster Session

W1

Reducing global and national vulnerability to climate change in the fisheries sectors: Policy
perspectives post Copenhagen

W2

Potential impacts of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems and fisheries

W3

Coupled climate-to-fish-to-fishers models for understanding mechanisms underlying low frequency
fluctuations in small pelagic fish and projecting its future

W4

Salmon workshop on climate change

W5

Networking across global marine “hotspots”

W6

Examining the linkages between physics and fish: How do zooplankton and krill data sets improve
our understanding of the impacts of climate change on fisheries?

ix

Notes for Guidance
Presentations
In order to allow the sessions to run smoothly, and in fairness to other speakers, all presentations are expected toadhere strictly to the time allocated. All authors should designate at least 3 minutes for questions.
Authors can download their presentations straight to the computers where the session/workshop will be held.
Important: Please rename your files: time-name.ppt (e.g. 0900-Smith.ppt, 1530-Kim.ppt).
If complications occur due to incompatibilities between PCs and Macs, Macintosh owners may use their own
computers to make presentations.
Posters
Posters will be on display in the Sakura Room from 12:00 on April 27. Two evening poster sessions (with appetizers
and drinks) will be held from 18:30-20:30 on April 27 and 28, when poster presenters are expected to be available
to answer questions. Posters must be removed at the end of the poster session on the evening of April 28.
Internet accessInternet access via wireless LAN will be available at the Sendai International Center. A few desktop computerswill also be available for participants.
Social activities
The Welcome Reception for all participants will be held on April 26 from 19:30-21:30 at the Ballroom of Sendai
Excel Hotel Tokyu.

Sendai International Center Floor PlanFirst Floor (1F)

EntrancexSecond Floor (2F)

Third Floor (3F)xi

Schedules

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Day 1 Plenary
Monday, April 26 (8:55-10:40)
8:55

Kevin E. Trenberth
The Earth’s climate system: Variability and change (Plenary-6063)

9:25

Akihiko Yatsu
Effects of climate change on marine ecosystems around Japan: Implications for sustainablefisheries (Plenary-6127)

9:50

Ussif Rashid Sumaila and William L. Cheung
Cost of adapting global marine fisheries to climate change (Plenary-6029)

10:15

Edward H. Allison
Climate change in perspective: The global drivers of change in fisheries (Plenary-6413)

10:40

Coffee/Tea Break

11:00

Session ends

3

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1

Forecasting impacts: From climate to fish

Co-Convenors:
Kenneth Drinkwater (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
Harald Loeng (Institute of Marine Research, Norway)
Yasuhiro Yamanaka (Hokkaido University, Japan)
Franz J. Mueter (School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, USA)
Carl O’Brien (Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, UK)
This session will focus on the impacts of future climate change on the physical oceanography, biogeochemistry,
and food webs of the world oceans. This includes contributions on appropriate methods for determining
impact projections and estimating levels of uncertainty as well as actual development of ecosystem scenarios.
Presentations will address downscaling from global models and the problems involved to produce regional futureclimate and physical oceanographic scenarios, scenarios of climate-induced changes in nutrient dynamics andother biogeochemical processes, changes in ecosystem community structure and function from phytoplankton
and zooplankton through to fish populations, including changes in production and distribution and their influence
upon biodiversity.

Monday, April 26 (11:00-18:30)
11:00

James E. Overland, Andrew Bakun, Jürgen Alheit, James Hurrell, David Mackas andArthur Miller (presented by Nicholas Bond)
Match/mismatch of fish population changes to climate events (P1-D1-6045)

11:15

Chan Joo Jang and Sinjae YooChange in the North Pacific mixed layer depth and its impact on primary production in a
warming world (P1-D1-6315)

11:30

William L. Cheung, John P. Dunne, Jorge Sarmiento and Daniel Pauly
Integrating eco-physiology and plankton dynamics into projected global changes in marine
biodiversity and maximum catch potential under climate change (P1-D1-6105)

11:45

Teruhisa Komatsu, Masahiro Fukuda, Atsuko Mikami, Yutaka Kokubu, Shizuha Mizuno,
Hideaki Tanoue and Michio Kawamiya
Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in East Asia under A2 scenario
of global warming and its impact on fishes (P1-D1-6089)

12:00

Stewart Frusher, Gretta Pecl, Caleb Gardner, Marcus Haward, Alistair J. Hobday, Sarah
Jennings, Melissa Nursey-Bray, André E. Punt, Hilary Revill and Ingrid van Putten
Fisheries and ecosystems in a changing climate: A case study on the Tasmanian east coast
lobster fishery (P1-D1-6313)

12:15

George L. Hunt, Jr., Lisa B. Eisner, Edward W. Farley, Jamal H. Moss, Jeffrey M. Nappand Phyllis J. Stabeno
The oscillating control hypothesis: Reassessment in view of new information from the eastern
Bering Sea (P1-D1-6036)

12:30(Cancelled)

Martin Huret, Pierre Petitgas and Caroline Struski (Cancelled)
The response of fish populations to climate change forecasted by integrating a sequence ofmodels over different life stages: Anchovy in the Bay of Biscay (P1-D1-6364)

12:30

Roy Mendelssohn (presented by Frank Shwing)
State-space analysis of ocean and atmospheric data for use in forecasting ecological impacts ofclimate change (P1-D1-6387)

12:45

Lunch

4

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
14:30

Myron A. Peck, Patricia Reglero, Motomitsu Takahashi and Ignacio A. CatalánLife cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish: Environmental thresholds and climate-drivenchanges in populations (P1-D1-6292)

14:45

Dawit Yemane, Nandipha M. Twatwa and Janet C. Coetzee
Performance of multiple approaches in modelling small pelagic fish distribution: Predictive
ability in the light of climate change (P1-D1-6141)

15:00

Pierre Fréon, David M. Checkley, Jr. and Francisco E. Werner
Climate change and small pelagic fish: A review and recommendations (P1-D1-6308)

15:15

Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo, Geir Huse, Morten D. Skogen and Einar Svendsen
Modeling secondary production in the Norwegian Sea with a fully coupled physical-primarysecondary production model system (P1-D1-6349)

15:30

Shin-ichi Ito, Takeshi Okunishi, Michio J. Kishi and Muyin Wang
Potential impact of climate change on Pacific saury (P1-D1-6266)

15:45

Kenneth A. Rose, Enrique N. Curchitser, Kate Hedström, Jerome Fiechter, Miguel Bernal,
Shin-ichi Ito, Salvador Lluch-Cota, Bernard A. Megrey, Christopher A. Edwards, David
M. Checkley, Jr., Alec MacCall, Tony Koslow, Sam McClatchie, Kenneth L. Denman andFrancisco E. Werner
Development of a climate-to-fish-to-fishers model: Proof-of-principle using long-term
population dynamics of anchovies and sardines in the California Current (P1-D1-6106)

16:00

Coffee/Tea Break

16:20

Randall M. Peterman (Invited)
Uncertainties about climatic change and Pacific salmon: Risk assessment, risk communication,and risk management (P1-D1-6052)

16:45

Anna Gardmark, Stefan Neuenfeldt, Martin Lindegren, Thorsten Blenckner, Eero Aro,
Outi Heikinheimo, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Susa Niiranen, Maciej Tomczak, Anieke van
Leeuwen, Anders Wikström and Christian Möllmann
Biological ensemble modelling of climate impacts – Improving fisheries science andmanagement by accounting for uncertainty (P1-D1-6301)

17:00

Franz J. Mueter, Nicholas A. Bond, Anne B. Hollowed, Carol Ladd and Enrique N. Curchitser
Future recruitment of Bering Sea walleye pollock. Part I: Retrospective patterns and uncertainty(P1-D1-6214)

17:15

Nicholas A. Bond, Franz J. Mueter, Anne B. Hollowed, Carol Ladd and Muyin Wang
Future recruitment of Bering Sea walleye pollock. Part II: Ranges in key environmental
parameters from global climate model forecasts (P1-D1-6068)

17:30

Hiroshi Yoshinari, Tomonori Azumaya, Tetsuichiro Funamoto, Akira Kusaka, Orio
Yamamura and Akira Nishimura
Numerical simulations of spatio-temporal distribution of juvenile walleye pollock around
Hidaka Bay (P1-D1-6183)

17:45

Jon Brodziak, Kevin Piner and Dean Courtney
Modeling recruitment responses of striped marlin (Tetrapturus audax) and swordfish (Xiphias
gladius) to environmental variability in the North Pacific (P1-D1-6396)

18:00

Kerim Aydin, Nicholas A. Bond, Enrique N. Curchitser, Georgina A. Gibson, Kate
Hedström, Albert J. Hermann and Ivonne Ortiz
Integrating data, fieldwork, and models into an ecosystem-level forecasting synthesis: Themodeling challenge of the Bering Ecosystem Study/Bering Sea Integrated Research Program(BEST-BSIERP) (P1-D1-6215)

5

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
18:15

Julia L. Blanchard, Nicholas K. Dulvy, Robert Holmes, Manuel Barange and Simon
Jennings
Potential climate change impacts on fish production from 20 large marine ecosystems aroundthe world (P1-D1-6275)

18:30

Session ends

Posters
P1-D1-5977

Nkemasong Samuel Acha and Thomas Tazoche Njang
The ramification of climate change on aquaculture production in Cameroon

P1-D1-6024

Hao Wei, Yuheng Wang, Liang Zhao and Michio J. Kishi
A study of climate impacts on anchovy population dynamics in the Yellow Sea by individualbased model

P1-D1-6074

Andrei S. Krovnin, Boris Kotenev, Mikhail Bondarenko and Anatoly Morozov (Cancelled)
Factors determining dynamics of highly variable fish stocks and possibilities of its long-range
forecasting (taking Northeast Arctic cod as an example)

P1-D1-6075

Andrei S. Krovnin, Nataliya Klovach and George Moury (Cancelled)
The climatic causes of recent rise of Asian salmon catches and its prospects

P1-D1-6076

Tatyana V. Belonenko and Aleksey V. Koldunov
The North-Atlantic Oscillation and biotical cycles within the Azores region

P1-D1-6102

Camille Albouy, François Le Loc’h, Jean M. Culioli and David Mouillot
Global warming effects on a Mediterranean ecosystem: A trophic modeling approach on the
Bonifacio Straits Natural Reserve (Corsica, France)

P1-D1-6103

Dmitry K. Staritsyn
Current divergences and enhanced biological production zones in the Japan Sea according tosatellite observations

P1-D1-6114

M. Aaron MacNeil (Cancelled)
Ignorant academic or a sage fool? Using prior beliefs to forecast climate effects on reef fish
communities

P1-D1-6126

Andrey A. Smirnov, Alexey V. Vakatov and Alexander L. Figurkin
Changes of increase growth rates and fecundity of the Gizhiga-Kamchatka herring (Clupea
pallasii Valenciennes, 1847), living in a northeast part of Sea of Okhotsk in connection withfluctuations of a water temperature benthic layer around their wintering grounds

P1-D1-6151

Alistair J. Hobday, Jason R. Hartog, Richard Matear, Claire M. Spillman and Oscar Alves
Predicting tuna habitat for spatial fisheries management using electronic tags and ocean models

P1-D1-6176

Mega Laksmini Syamsuddin, Sei-ichi Saitoh, Samsul Bachri and Agung Budi Harto
Regional climate change impacts on bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) catch in the Indonesian Seas

P1-D1-6184

Ichiro Yasuda, Satoshi Osafune, Shunsuke Konda, Sachihiko Itoh and Hiroyasu Hasumi
18.6-year period moon-tidal cycle in ocean/climate and its impact on climate/ecosystem
predictability

P1-D1-6189

Chih-Chieh Hsu, Chih-Wei Chang, Chia-Hui Wang, Yuan-Mou Chang, Chen-Feng You andWann-Nian Tzeng
The fluctuations of solar activity on catch data of mullet and eel

6

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
P1-D1-6195

Jonathan A. Hare, Mark J. Wuenschel and Matthew E. Kimball
Larval dispersal, overwinter mortality, and climate change: Forecasting range shifts of a subtropical fish species in a western boundary current system

P1-D1-6199

Joe Scutt Phillips, Graham M. Pilling, Lisa J. Readdy, John K. Pinnegar and Nicholas K.
Dulvy
Do we know the potential impacts of global climate change on fishing nations?

P1-D1-6208

Trond Kristiansen and Kenneth Drinkwater
Analyzing warm and cold climate phases to understand differences in survival and connectivityof larval cod: Possible implications for climate change

P1-D1-6221

Thomas Wilderbuer, Nicholas A. Bond and William Stockhausen
An example of estimating future Bering Sea northern rock sole productivity from statistical
downscaled IPCC models and its effect on management

P1-D1-6263

Shengyun Yang and Qiulin Zhou
The impact of climate change on the fishery ecosystems in the Taiwan Strait and their responses

P1-D1-6272

Arnaud Bertrand, Michael Ballón and Alexis Chaigneau (Cancelled)
Acoustic observation of living organisms reveals the oxygen minimum zone

P1-D1-6283

Marc Hufnagl, Myron A. Peck, Mark Dickey-Collas, Richard D.M. Nash and Thomas
Pohlmann
Climate-driven, bottom-up control of North Sea herring recruitment

P1-D1-6289

Yumiko Yara, Masahiko Fujii, Yasuhiro Yamanaka, Naosuke Okada, Hiroya Yamano andKazuhiro Oshima
Projected effects of global warming on corals in seas close to Japan

P1-D1-6354

Miguel Ñiquen, Marilou Bouchon and Milena Arias-Schreiber (Cancelled)
Extreme climatic events and the dynamics of the Peruvian small pelagic fish environment

P1-D1-6380

Sukyung Kang, Jae Bong Lee, Anne B. Hollowed, Nicholas A. Bond and Suam Kim
The impact of climate changes on the distribution and abundance of mackerel in the northwestern
Pacific

P1-D1-6383

Franklin B. Schwing, Roy Mendelssohn and Steven J. Bograd
An assessment of regime shifts in North Pacific ecosystems

P1-D1-6389

Francisco Beltran, Bruno Sanso, Ricardo Lemos and Roy Mendelssohn
Indices of temporal variability in North Pacific SST from IPCC model future climate scenarios:
A hierarchical Bayesian analysis

7Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P2

Forecasting impacts: From fish to markets

Co-Convenors:

Manuel Barange (GLOBEC International Project Office)
Jacquelynne King (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)
Ian Perry (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)
Climate change direct impacts on marine populations will alter the provision of food from our oceans to our markets.
At the same time, the on-going process of economic globalization will modify or exacerbate the vulnerability offish production systems to climate change at global, regional and local level. Policy and management agencies will
require scientific advice on the potential impacts that climate change (and its associated economic developments)
will have on the availability of fish populations to fisheries, markets and consumers. This session will focus on(1) forecasting changes in marine population dynamics as they relate to fisheries (e.g., impacts on catchability or
maximum sustainable yield), to processing and market demands (e.g., changes in size-at-age), to market forces(e.g., changes in price and trade) and to food security (e.g., collective vulnerability analysis); (2) quantifying theuncertainty of these forecasts in risk assessment frameworks useful to resource managers; and (3) exploring theinteractivity between the ecosystem and market dynamics.

Monday, April 26 (11:00-13:00)
11:00

Gorka Merino, Manuel Barange, Christian Mullon, Robert Holmes, Julia L. Blanchard
and Lynda Rodwell
Global environmental change scenarios for the world’s small pelagic fisheries and global
fishmeal and oil markets (P2-6119)

11:15

Gakushi Ishimura, Samuel Herrick and Ussif Rashid Sumaila
Can there be stable, cooperative exploitation of a transboundary fish stock under climate variability? A
game analysis on the Pacific sardine fishery in the California Current (P2-6290)

11:30

Timothy Pickering, Ben Ponia, Cathy Hair, Paul Southgate, Elvira S. Poloczanska, Luc
Della Patrona, Antoine Teitelbaum, C.V. Mohan and Michael Phillips
Vulnerability of aquaculture to climate change in the Pacific (P2-6398)

11:45

Alan Haynie and Lisa Pfeiffer
Modeling fleet behavior in the Bering Sea pollock fishery under climate change (P2-6359)

12:00

Marie-Caroline Badjeck and Tania Mendo Aguilar Wosnitza
Scenarios for the future: Drivers of change in the Peruvian fisheries sector (P2-6367)

12:15

Ana Norman-López and Sean Pascoe
The effect of climate change on fishing behaviour in the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery (P2-6071)

12:30

Ussif Rashid Sumaila, William L. Cheung and Vicky W.Y. Lam
Impact of climate change on marine resources food security and local economies in West Africancountries (P2-6230)

12:45

Maria A. Gasalla, R. Pincinato and I. Belkin
Ocean proxies for seafood market variability in the South Brazil Bight (P2-6386)

13:00

Session ends

8

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Day 4 Plenary P3
Sustainable strategies in a warming climate
Co-Convenors:
Anne B. Hollowed (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Michael J. Schirripa (Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Many nations have adopted a goal of building sustainable fisheries. Traditionally, this goal has been pursued
through the adoption of precautionary harvest policies that are based on the expected productivity of the stock in a
future environmental state. However, these harvest policies seldom explicitly consider how possible future climatechange may modify critical aspects of the productivity of the stock. At the single species level, climate change
could significantly influence the carrying capacity, the reproductive potential, as well as the spatial distributionof the stock. At the multi-species level, climate change may alter the abundance of competitors and predators ofspecies targeted for fishing. Societal changes in the consumption of fish and policies regarding marine ranching
and aquaculture may also change the economic factors governing fisheries. This session is intended to explore
the future of fish and fisheries under a changing climate. The focus will be on examples of management strategies
that could be applied to sustain fisheries under a changing climate and techniques for assessing and forecasting
the performance of harvest policies under changing climate. This session is also open to new and novel modelingtechniques designed to take into account an uncertain future and/or non-equilibrium conditions in fish, fishingfleets, management, and the marketing of seafood products. This could range from how future fishing vessels
may be outfitted to best adapt to a changing climate to how traditional management benchmarks and concepts(maximum sustainable yield, minimum stock size threshold, etc.) could be modified or updated to take climatechange into account. Inventive ways to circumvent or adapt to the forecasted impacts of climate change and theuncertainty surrounding it are also of interest.

Thursday, April 29 (9:00-12:00)
9:00

Introduction by Convenors

9:05

Chang Ik Zhang and Jae Bong Lee (Invited)
Impacts of climate changes and a pragmatic ecosystem-based approach for assessing andforecasting harvest policies under changing climate in Korea (P3-6212)

9:30

Éva Plagányi, Scarla Weeks, Tim Skewes, Mark Gibbs, Elvira S. Poloczanska Ana
Norman-López, Laura Blamey, Muri Soares and William Robinson (Invited)
Assessing the adequacy of current fisheries management under changing climate (P3-6073)

9:55

Jennifer L. Nielsen, Gregory T. Ruggerone, Christian E. Zimmerman and Jamal H. Moss
Sustainable strategies in a warming climate: Salmon in the Arctic (P3-5996)

10:10

Philippe Cury
Moving from fisheries oceanography towards ecosystem oceanography for building scenarios
for marine ecosystems under anthropogenic and natural forcing in the XXI Century (P3-6395)

10:25

James N. Ianelli
The challenges of developing fisheries stock assessment approaches, harvest control rules, andmanagement strategies to satisfy and adapt to increasingly complex management objectives ina changing environment (P3-6391)

10:40

Cofee/Tea Break

9

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
11:00

Gretta Pecl, Alistair J. Hobday, Stewart Frusher, Warwick Sauer and participants ofWorkshop 5
Networking across global marine ‘hotspots’ (P3-6335)

11:15

Anne B. Hollowed, Nicholas Bond,Alan Haynie, James N. Ianelli and Franz J. Mueter
Scenario based models for predicting stakeholder responses to a changing climate: A case study
for the Eastern Bering Sea (P3-6240)

11:30

Yi-Jay Chang, Chi-Lu Sun, Yong Chen and Su-Zan Yeh
Incorporating climate changes into population dynamic modelling: an individual-basedmodelling approach for the pronghorn spiny lobster (Panulirus penicullatus) in eastern Taiwan(P3-6316)

11:45

Masahide Kaeriyama, Hyunju Seo and Michio J. Kishi
Sustainable fisheries management of Pacific salmon in a warming climate (P3-6136)

12:00

Session ends

Posters
P3-6376

Manuel Barange, J. Icarus Allen, Eddie Allison, Marie-Caroline Badjeck, Julia L.
Blanchard, Ben Drakeford, Nicholas K. Dulvy, James Harle, Jason Holt, Robert Holmes,
Simon Jennings, Gorka Merino, Graham M. Pilling and Lynda Rodwell
QUEST_Fish: Estimating climate change impacts on global fish production and additional
vulnerabilities to human societies

P3-6402

Du Van Toan, Nguyen Van Tien, Vu Thanh Ca, Nguyen Hoang Anh, Nguyen Hai Anh, Vu Thi
Hien and Tran The Anh
Impact assessment of flooding inudation in the Vietnam coastal zone for marine ecosystems by
CC and SLR

P3-6411Feng-Chen Chang and Shean-Ya Yeh (Cancelled)
Albacore (Thunnus alalunga) distribution versus SST in the Indian Ocean based on 1982-2008
log reports of Taiwaneses longliners

P3-6414

Michael J. Schirripa, Rebecca J. Allee, Russell H. Beard, Stephanie Oakes, Bonnie J.
Ponwith, Rebecca Shuford and Roger J. Zimmerman
An approach to an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the Gulf of Mexico

10Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

A1

Downscaling variables from global models

Co-Convenors:
Michael Foreman (Institute of Ocean Sciences, DFO, Canada)
Jason Holt (Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, UK)
Analyses and summaries recently presented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC) indicate that many of the dramatic changes observed in the circulation and physicalcharacteristics of the oceans over the past century will continue in the future. As one of the major limitations of
the global climate models that are used to estimate these future projections is their relatively coarse resolution,
statistical or dynamical downscaling is often needed to provide sufficient spatial detail in the variables of interest.
This session will address the downscaling of global climate model variables relevant to marine ecosystems,with emphasis on (1) downscaling techniques and/or their application to particular regions or variables, and(2) analysis of global climate model projections, or results from higher-resolution regional ocean, or coupledatmosphere-ocean models that are forced by, and take their boundary conditions from, global climate models.

Tuesday, April 27 (14:30-18:30)
14:30

Introduction by Convenors

14:35

Muyin Wang, James E. Overland and Nicholas A. Bond (Invited)
Examples of using global climate models for regional marine ecosystem projection (A1-6050)

15:00

J. Icarus Allen (Invited)
Shelf seas ecosystems: Past, present and future states (A1-6062)

15:25

Masao Kurogi, Hiroyasu Hasumi and Yukio Tanaka
Kuroshio path variation studied by a nested-grid OGCM (A1-6342)

15:40

Robert Holmes, James Harle, J. Icarus Allen, Jason Holt and Manuel Barange
Predicting impacts of climate change on primary production in coastal-ocean regions (A1-6190)

15:55

Jason Holt, James Harle, Rob Holmes and J. Icarus Allen
Potential climate change impacts on contrasting shelf sea regions: Atmospheric and oceanic
impacts vs. tidal and seasonal constraints (A1-6294)

16:10

Coffee/Tea Break

16:30

Enrique N. Curchitser, William Large, Kate Hedström and Jon Wolf
Downscaling climate simulations in the North Pacific Ocean using a fully coupled multi-scalemodel (A1-6107)

16:45

Hiroshi Kuroda, Takashi Setou, Manabu Shimizu and Kazuhiro Aoki
Dynamical downscaling from the basin scale to submesoscale with a triply nested ocean model(A1-6293)

17:00

Talgat R. Kilmatov and Elena V. Dmitrieva
Climatic structural stability of the Kuroshio Extension jet and catastrophe theory (A1-6038)

17:15

Albert J. Hermann, Kerim Aydin, Nicholas A. Bond, Wei Cheng, Enrique N. Curchitser,
Georgina A. Gibson, Kate Hedström, Ivonne Ortiz, Muyin Wang and Phyllis J. Stabeno
Simulated modes of biophysical variability on the Bering Sea shelf (A1-6375)

17:30

Huaming Yu, Thomas Pohlmann, Xianwen Bao and Xueen Chen
Tidal current effects on the simulation of ocean circulation by theoretical and numerical analyses(A1-6264)11

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
17:45

Alexandra V. Temnykh, Yuriy N. Tokarev and Viktor V. Melnikov
The Black Sea zooplankton-climate connection: A multi-scale approach and new methods (A1-6017)

18:00

Michael Foreman, Badal Pal, William Merryfield, Diane Masson and John Morrison
Toward a regional climate model for the British Columbia continental shelf (A1-6069)

18:15

Elena I. Ustinova
Evaluation of potential limitations for statistical downscaling in the Far-Eastern Seas (A1-6393)

18:30

Session ends

Poster
A1-6347

12

Anne D. Sandvik, Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo and Anne Britt Sandø
Downscaling global climate predictions for the North Sea - A discussion about quality

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

A2

Species-specific responses: Changes in growth, reproductive
success, mortality, spatial distribution, and adaptation

Co-Convenors:

Richard Beamish (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)
Myron Peck (Center for Marine and Climate Research, University of Hamburg, Germany)
Climate is now recognized as a major factor affecting the productivity of key species in world fisheries. The
mechanisms that link climate to fish productivity need to be better understood to ensure that natural andgreenhouse gas induced climate changes are incorporated into the management of fisheries. Population-levelchanges in commercially and ecologically important marine fish species may result from climate-driven changes
in organismal-level vital rates (e.g., changes in growth, reproductive success and mortality). Furthermore,
expansion, contraction and/or shifts in the distribution of fish stocks will result from changes in suitable habitats(habitats that allow connectivity among life stages, life cycle closure and successful recruitment). The extent
of climate-driven changes will be mediated by the capacity for individual species (or populations) to adapt tochanges in important abiotic and biotic factors. Adaptations could include both changes in the phenology ofimportant life history events (e.g., migration, spawning) and/or physiological changes (e.g., thermal reaction
norms of key traits such as growth, increased tolerance to lowered pH/ocean acidification). This session provides aforum for presentations focusing on the response of key fish and fisheries species worldwide to climate change by:(1) documenting historical, long-term fluctuations in abundance and distribution, (2) discussing processes
underlying current changes, and/or (3) projecting future impacts in light of adaptive capacity. Key fisheries
species include those utilizing marine habitats during any portion of their life cycle and that are commercially or
ecologically important marine resources.

Day 1, Monday, April 26 (14:30-18:30)
14:30

Introduction by Convenors

14:35

Hans-O. Pörtner (Invited)
Oxygen- and capacity-limitation of thermal tolerance: A matrix for integrating climate-related
stressor effects in marine ecosystems (A2-6085)

15:00

Olav Sigurd Kjesbu, Jon Egil Skjæraasen, David Righton, Kathrine Michalsen, ChristianJørgensen, Anders Frugård Opdal and Peter R. Witthames
Climate effects on maturation and spawning of Atlantic cod and implications for fisheries (A2-6099)

15:15

So Kawaguchi, Haruko Kurihara, Robert King, Lillian Hale, Thomas Berli, James
Robinson, Patti Virtue, Stephen Nicol and Atsushi Ishimatsu
An experimental assessment of effects of raised pCO2 on early-larval Antarctic krill (A2-6153)

15:30

Jun Shoji, Masakazu Hori, Yasuhiro Kamimura, Ken-ichiro Mizuno and Shun-ichi Toshito
Fish production in coastal habitats under global warming: Spatio-temporal variability in early
growth of a dominant species, black rockfish, in seagrass beds (A2-6090)

15:45

Frida Ben Rais Lasram, Francois Guilhaumon, Samuel Somot, Wilfried Thuiller andDavid Mouillot
The Mediterranean Sea as a trap for endemic fishes facing climate change (A2-6020)

16:00

Coffee/Tea Break

16:20

John K. Pinnegar, Georg Engelhard, Julia L. Blanchard, Joe Scutt-Phillips and William
L. Cheung (Invited)
How has climate change impacted marine food-webs in the past, and how might we predictchanges in the future? (A2-6362)

13

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
16:45

Louis W. Botsford, Matthew D. Holland, Alan Hastings, Michael J. Fogarty, Francis
Juanes and Hui-Yu Wang
The effects of fish life histories on time scales of response to environmental change (A2-6109)

17:00

Remment ter Hofstede and Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp
Disentangling the effects of fisheries and climate change on fish communities (A2-6080)

17:15

Manuel Hidalgo, Valerio Bartolino, Santiago Cerviño, Angélique Jadaud, Enric Massutí,Fran Saborido-Rey, Marina Santurtún and Nils Christian StensethComparative study of fishing-induced juvenescence effects under different climatic and fishingharvesting scenarios (A2-6145)

17:30

J. Marti Pujolar, D. Bevacqua, M. Andrello and L. Zane
Bringing together molecular genetics and population dynamics modelling: Disentangling theinfluence of fisheries and climate variation in the endangered European eel (A2-6034)

17:45

Yongjun Tian, Hideaki Kidokoro, Tatsuro Watanabe, Yosuke Igeta, Hideo Sakaji and Ken
WatanabeResponse of yellowtail Seriola quinqueradiata in the Japan Sea to sea water temperature overthe last century and potential effect of global warming (A2-6115)

18:00

Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp, Ralf van Hal, Marc Hufnagl, Richard D.M. Nash, Alexander
Schroeder, Lorna R. Teal, Ingrid Tulp, Rob Witbaard, Doug Beare and Henk W. van derVeer
Key mechanism determining the impact of climate change on the productivity and fisheries ofNorth Sea plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L. (A2-6258)

18:15

Michele Casini, Valerio Bartolino, Juan Carlos Molinero and Georgs Kornilovs
Linking climate, trophic interactions and fisheries: Threshold dynamics drive herring (Clupea
harengus) growth in the central Baltic Sea (A2-6345)

18:30

Session ends

Day 2, Tuesday, April 27 (9:00-13:20)
9:00

Kuo-Wei Lan, Ming-An Lee and Hsueh-Jung Lu
A study on yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) stocks and fishing conditions in relation to
oceanic environmental variation in the Atlantic Ocean (A2-6171)

9:15

Nan-Jay Su, Chi-Lu Sun, André E. Punt and Su-Zan Yeh
Impacts of climate change on the distribution of blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) as inferredfrom data for longline fisheries in the Pacific Ocean (A2-6295)

9:30

Barbara Muhling, Sang-Ki Lee, Michael J. Schirripa, Walter Ingram and John Lamkin
Predicting the effects of climate change on bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) spawning habitat in
the Gulf of Mexico (A2-6032)

9:45

Melanie Abecassis, Patrick Lehodey, Inna Senina and Jeffrey J. Polovina
Swordfish population dynamics in the Pacific Ocean (A2-6110)

10:00

Yury I. Zuenko, Lydmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdovin and Elena I. Ustinova
Climate change effect on the saffron cod Eleginus gracilis reproduction, stock, and fishery in
the Japan Sea (A2-6227)

10:15

Z. Teresa A’mar, André E. Punt and Grant G. Thompson
Incorporating climate variability into the assessment of Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod (A2-6239)

10:30

Rüdiger Voss, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen, Jörn O. Schmidt and Martin F. Quaas
Spatially resolved impact of temperature change on recruitment of sprat and cod in the Baltic
Sea – From observation to bio-economic modeling (A2-6202)

14

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
10:45

Coffee/Tea Break

11:05

Harald Loeng, Hjámar Hátún, Jens Christian Holst, Mark Payne and Aril Slotte
The rise and the fall of the northern blue whiting stock (A2-6191)

11:20

Eduardo Martins, Scott Hinch, David Patterson, Merran Hague, Steven Cooke, Kristina
Miller, Michael Lapointe, Karl English and Anthony Farrell
Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock-specific survival of adult migrating
Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) (A2-6028)

11:35

Hyunju Seo, Masa-aki Fukuwaka and Masahide Kaeriyama
Long-term fluctuations in somatic growth, survival, and population dynamics of Hokkaido
chum salmon, Oncorhynchus keta, linking to climate changes (A2-6179)

11:50

Juan L. Valero, Steven R. Hare and Bruce M. Leaman
Investigating the roles of climate, density-dependence and fishing on long-term and large-scalechanges in recruitment, growth, maturity and distribution of Pacific halibut (A2-6173)

12:05

Yasunori Sakurai, A.L. Rosa and J. Yamamoto
Past, present and future of Japanese common squid, Todarodes pacificus (Cephalopoda:
Ommastrephidae) (A2-6156)

12:20

Jacob F. Schweigert, Jennifer Boldt, Linnea Flostrand, Peter Olesiuk, Sherri Dressel and
Ryan Watanabe
Differing response of herring stocks to ecosystem forcing in the California and Gulf of Alaska
Current systems (A2-6250)

12:35

Akinori Takasuka, Sam McClatchie, Ed Weber, Yoshioki Oozeki, Takahiko Kameda,
Yuichi Hirota and Hiroshi Okamura
Responses of anchovy and sardine spawning to physical and biological factors in the Kuroshio
and California Current systems: Interspecific and intersystem comparison (A2-6338)

12:50

Janet A. Nye, Jason S. Link and Jonathan A. Hare
Climate-induced changes in distribution of Northwest Atlantic fish and invertebrates:
Implications for management (A2-6196)

13:05

Benjamin Planque, Edwige Bellier, Frida Ben Rais Lasram and Christophe Loots
Now you see me, now you don’t: Uncertainties in projecting future spatial distribution ofmarine populations (A2-6019)

13:20

Session ends

Posters
A2-6022

Alexander M. Kaev (presented by A. Velikanov)
Possible inner causes for correcting “climatic” trends in pink salmon

A2-6030

Claudio Castillo-Jordán, Luis A. Cubillos and Eduardo Navarro
Inter-cohort growth rate changes of common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) and theirrelationship with environmental conditions off central southern Chile

A2-6033

Melissa A. Haltuch, Carrie Holt, André E. Punt and M. Elizabeth Clarke
Patterns and processes underlying Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) migrations: Progress ondeveloping forecast tools to predict distribution and density

15

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
A2-6041

Mei-Yu Chang and Audrey J. GeffenClassifying the spatial structure of different spawning populations of commercially important
Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea by otolith elemental composition

A2-6058

Valerio Bartolino, Piotr Margonski, Massimiliano Cardinale, Martin Lindegren, Hans
Linderholm, Hakan Wennhage and Michele Casini
Herring recruitment in the Baltic Sea: From observations to projections

A2-6059

Guimei Liu, Song Sun and Hui Wang (Cancelled)
Modelling the demography of Calanus sinicus in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass

A2-6060

Elizabeth Atwood, John K. Horne, Janet T. Duffy-Anderson and Carol Ladd
Association of larval fish abundance with mesoscale eddies in the Gulf of Alaska

A2-6070

Nandipha M. Twatwa, Dawit Yemane and Janet C. Coetzee
Pattern of habitat preference by three small pelagic species in the southern Benguela duringhigh and low biomass periods

A2-6077

Alexander Arkhipkin and Vladimir Laptikhovsky
Environmental changes caused recent increase in abundance of rock cod, Patagonotothen
ramsayi in the Southwest Atlantic

A2-6082

Matthew T. Wilson, Kathy Mier and Annette Dougherty
The first annulus of otoliths: A tool for studying intra-annual growth among walleye pollock(Theragra chalcogramma)

A2-6083

Kathryn Hughes, Mark P. Johnson and Leonie Dransfeld
Warming seas and the migration of Atlantic mackerel

A2-6092

Jennifer M. Donelson, Philip L. Munday and Mark I. McCormick
Thermal acclimation by a coral reef fish

A2-6094

Yasuo Itoh, Yukihiko Watanabe, Yukio Nakamura, Shuji Tsuchida, Hideaki Kinoshita,
Takumi Setoguma and Yasushi Minowa
Comparison of swimming performance at various acclimation temperatures for teleosts
inhabiting Japanese coastal waters

A2-6097

Shan Gao, Hui Wang and Liu Guimei
Spatial and temporal variability of chlorophyll a and their responses to marine environments in
the South China Sea

A2-6111

Claudio Gatica, Claudio Castillo-Jordán, Sebastian Vasquez and Rubén Alarcón
Population structure changes on size and age composition on Chilean hake (Merluccius gayigayi) and their association with environmental conditions

A2-6112Strahan Tucker, Marc Trudel, David W. Welch, John R. Candy, John F.T. Morris, Mary
E. Thiess, Colin Wallace and Terry D. Beacham
Annual trends in seasonal stock- and life-history-specific ocean migration of juvenile Chinook
salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha: An application of genetic identification techniquesA2-6120

Masao Miura, Toshiro Fujisawa, Hiroshi Yamada and Takeya Hara
Behavioral response of Japanese amberjack, Seriola quinqueradiata, to sea water temperaturerise caused by thermal effluent

A2-6139

Svetlana A. Murzina, Stig Falk-Petersen, Jørgen Berge and Nina N. Nemova
Seasonal lipid and fatty acids dynamics in Leptoclinus maculatus larvae from Svalbard waters
in relation to abiotic and biotic factors

16

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6142

N.M. Twatwa, Dawit Yemane and Janet C. Coetzee
Modeling the distribution and abundance of pelagic fish species as a function of environmental
variables

A2-6160

Haruka Nishikawa, Ichiro Yasuda, Sachihiko Itoh, Hideharu Sasaki and Yoshikazu Sasai
Environmental impacts on long-term variation in recruitment success of Japanese sardine

A2-6161

Rubén Rodríguez-Sánchez, Carl van der Lingen, Marlene Manzano, Larry Hutchingsand Héctor Villalobos
Comparing the influence of oceanographic fronts on interannual changes in the distribution andrelative abundance of sardine in the California and Southern Benguela Current systems

A2-6187

Jung Jin Kim and Suam Kim
Relationship between environmental variability and distribution of common squid (Todarodes
pacificus) paralarvae in the northern East China Sea

A2-6200

Ana Moreira, Paulo Fonseca, Cristina Silva, Aida Campos, Maria de Fátima Borges andMiguel Santos
Are crustacean landings from Portuguese waters driven by environment variables?

A2-6217

Omar I. Abdul-Aziz and Nathan J. Mantua
Climate change impacts on the ocean distributions of Pacific salmon

A2-6224

Bernard A. Megrey, Kenneth A. Rose, Jacob F. Schweigert, Douglas Hay, Francisco E.
Werner, Yasuhiro Yamanaka and Shin-ichi Ito
Geographic variation in Pacific herring growth and population responses to regime shifts in the
North Pacific basin

A2-6246

Christos D. Maravelias and Alex Tidd
Northern vs. southern European Seas: Investigating spatio-temporal patterns of Mullus
surmuletus distribution in relation to environmental changes

A2-6251

Sukgeun Jung
Recruitment and migration of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) to southern Korean coastal
waters in relation to variations in the bottom cold waters originating from the Japan/East Sea

A2-6254

Motomitsu Takahashi, Yoshiro Watanabe, Akihiko Yatsu and Hiroshi Nishida
Contrasting responses in larval and juvenile growth rates of anchovy and sardine to a climateocean regime shift: Implications for their population dynamics

A2-6255

Akiko Takano, Hidekatsu Yamazaki, Osamu Honda, Kotaro Yokawa and Hiroshi Shono
An investigation of the relationship between bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) catch and three
dimensional thermal structures

A2-6260

Cheryl A. Morgan, William T. Peterson, Joseph P. Fisher and Jesse F. Lamb
Effects of climate variability on the distribution, abundance and habitat usage of juvenile
salmonids in the coastal waters of the northern California Current

A2-6270

Yuu Katsukawa, Yoshiro Watanabe, Hiroshi Okamura, Tatsuya Suzuki and Hisashi
Nakategawa
Changes in the life history traits of Japanese anchovy and sardine

A2-6280

Jörn O. Schmidt and Rüdiger Voss
The rise and fall of snake pipefish (Entelurus aequoreus L.) off North Scotland

A2-6314

Caleb Gardner and Stewart Frusher (Cancelled)
Warming influences productivity of lobster stocks in SE Australia

17

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6317

Andrew Tobin, Audrey Schlaff, Besse Krause, David W. Welch, Tony Ayling, Hugh
Sweatman, Paul Marshall, Brigid Kerrigan and Jeff Maynard
Contrasting ecological responses of two commercially important finfish to severe tropical
cyclones: A sullen serranid and a lively lethrinid

A2-6319

Haruko Kurihara, Yuji Hiratsuka, Takamasa Asai, Atsushi Ishimatsu, Laura Parker andPauline Ross
Are geographically distinct populations similarly impacted by ocean acidification? (Oysters asa case study)

A2-6331

Kinuyo Fukamichi, Yoshiro Watanabe, Isamu Mitani and Tomohiko Kawamura
Metamorphosis is closely associated with condition factor in Japanese anchovy in the Pacificcoast waters of central Japan

A2-6334

Mika Suhara, Yoshiro Watanabe, Yuu Katsukawa, Yasuo Mori, Satoshi Katayama,
Masayuki Yamamoto and Tomohiko Kawamura
Comparative reproductive ecology of Japanese anchovy, Engraulis japonicus, in different
current areas off Japan

A2-6343

Chen-Te Tseng, Chi-Lu Sun, Su-Zan Yeh, Shih-Chin Chen and Wei-Cheng Su
Influence of environmental factors on the distributions of Pacific saury in the northwestern
Pacific Ocean

A2-6350

Cecilie Kvamme, Geir Odd Johansen, Jan Erik Stiansen, Trond Westgard, Bjørn
Adlandsvik and Sigrid Lind Johansen
Ocean temperature, cod stock distribution and cod fisheries in the Barents Sea the last decades

A2-6377

Stephani Zador and Kerim Aydin
Patterns in a changing climate: Fine-scale analysis of arrowtooth flounder catch rates in theeastern Bering Sea reveals spatial trends in abundance and diet18

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B1

Assessing ecosystem responses: Impacts on community structure,
biodiversity, energy flow and carrying capacity

Co-Convenors:

Thomas Okey (Pew Fellow / UVic / Bamfield Marine Station, Canada)
Akihiko Yatsu (Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)
Assessing effects of climate change on marine ecosystems (i.e., biological communities) is a major challenge,
mainly because (1) future changes in physical forcing, such as water temperature, will exceed historically observed
values, and (2) biological responses or adaptations to these changes are highly uncertain, particularly over along time period. Changes in geographic ranges, vertical distributions, phenologies, population structures, andproductivities will differ among individual species thereby altering the connectivities and functions of ecosystemcomponents, including predator-prey relationships and competition, species assembly, community structure,
biodiversity, energy flow, and carrying capacity. This session will focus on retrospective analyses of changes infreshwater, coastal, and offshore ecosystems/communities, experimental studies on species interactions underclimate-change-related conditions, and conceptual and numerical modelling of ecosystems relevant to climatechange.

Tuesday, April 27 (9:00-18:30)
9:00

Introduction by Convenors

9:05

Jeffrey J. Polovina, John P. Dunne, Phoebe Woodworth and Evan A. Howell (Invited)
Possible trends in North Pacific ecosystems over the 21st century based on output from a coupledclimate, biogeochemical, and phytoplankton model (B1-6053)

9:30

Hiroshi Sumata, Taketo Hashioka, Takeshi Okunishi, Masahito Shigemitsu, Maki N.
Aita, Naoki Yoshie, Naosuke Okada, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Tatsuo Suzuki and Yasuhiro
Yamanaka
Effects of climate forcing on the North Pacific Ocean ecosystem simulated using an eddypermitting marine ecosystem model (B1-6167)

9:45

Jeffrey M. Napp, George L. Hunt, Jr., Lisa B. Eisner, Edward W. Farley, Phyllis J. Stabeno,Alex Andrews and Atsushi Yamaguchi
The response of eastern Bering Sea zooplankton communities to climate fluctuations:
Community structure, biodiversity, and energy flow to higher trophic levels (B1-6049)

10:00

Hung-Yen Hsieh, Wen-Tseng Lo, Long-Jing Wu, Huang-Pin Chien, Deng-Cheng Liu andWei-Cheng Su
Larval fish assemblages in the waters around Taiwan, western North Pacific: A comparison
between, during and after the northeasterly monsoon (B1-6168)

10:15

Nadezhda L. Aseeva and Alexander L. Figurkin
Changes of bottom ichthyocenosis structure on the shelf of west Kamchatka under changing
environments in the last two decades (B1-6235)

10:30

Rebecca G. Asch and David M. Checkley, Jr.
Climate change leads to earlier seasonal occurrence of larval fishes in the southern California
Current (B1-6216)

10:45

Coffee/Tea Break

11:05

William J. Sydeman, Bryan A. Black, Steven J. Bograd, Jeff Dorman, John C. Field, Kyra
L. Mills, Stephen Ralston, T. Zack Powell, Jarrod A. Santora, Isaac D. Schroeder, Sarah
Ann Thompson and Franklin B. Schwing
Ocean climate change and phenology: Effects on trophic synchrony and consequences to fishand seabirds in the northern-central California Current (B1-6220)

19

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
11:20

Takafumi Hirata, Robert Brewin and Nick Hardman-Mountford
Global distribution of phytoplankton functional types estimated from satellite ocean colour(B1-6042)

11:35(Cancelled)

Jacquelynne R. King, Vera N. Agostini, Gordon McFarlane, Christopher Harvey, Michael
Foreman, James E. Overland and Kerim Aydin (Cancelled)
Climate Forcing and Marine Ecosystems of the North Pacific (B1-6108)

11:50

Gregory N. Nishihara and Ryuta Terada
A preliminary study of the effects of a wave exposure gradient on the species richness of marine
macrophytes along the eastern rim of the East China Sea (B1-6279)

12:05

Sukgeun Jung, Young Shil Kang, Young-Sang Suh, Sukyung Kang and Yeong Gong
Climate-driven shifts in marine fish communities indicated by commercial catch statistics from
Korean coastal waters (B1-6253)

12:20

Hiroya Sugisaki, Kiyotaka Hidaka, Tadafumi Ichikawa, Yutaka Hiroe, Yuichi Hirota,
Kenji Morinaga, Manabu Shimizu, Takahisa Tokunaga, Mikiko Kuriyama, Tomowo
Watanabe and Kaoru Nakata
Interdisciplinary monitoring for the Kuroshio warm current ecosystem in relation to climatechange (B1-6329)

12:35

Hiroaki Saito, Shin-ichi Ito, Atsushi Kawabata, Mitsutaku Makino, Masami Nonaka,
Takeshi Okunishi, Kazutaka Takahashi and Ichiro Yasuda
Understanding and forecasting of fish species alternation in the Kuroshio-Oyashio ecosystem:
The SUPRFISH programme (B1-6101)

12:50

Lunch

14:30

Elizabeth A. Fulton (Invited)
Interesting times (B1-6044)

14:55

Rosamma Stephen
Decline in mackerel fishery along west coast of India and its relation to the diminishing densityof an abundant upwelling copepod: A multi-decadal study (B1-6164)

15:10

Sunil D. Ahirrao
Effect of climate change on fish and fisheries of Marathwada region of Maharashtra state (India)(B1-6336)

15:25

Stephen D. Simpson, Mark P. Johnson, David W. Sims, Pieter-Jan Schön, Julia L.
Blanchard, Simon Jennings and Martin J. Genner
Long-term climate-driven changes in UK marine fish communities (B1-6056)

15:40

Remment ter Hofstede, Jan Geert Hiddink and Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp
Global warming changes the species richness of marine fish in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean(B1-6078)

15:55

Gabriel Reygondeau, Olivier Maury, Hervé Demarcq and Philippe Cury
Changes in the environmental factors controlling the global biogeography of tuna and billfish
communities (B1-6305)

16:10

Coffee/Tea Break

16:30

Charles A. Stock and John P. Dunne
Modeling global patterns in the transfer of energy between primary producers andmesozooplankton in a global circulation model (B1-6366)20

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
16:45

Ryan R. Rykaczewski and John P. Dunne
Comparison of the ecosystem response to climate change in the mid-latitude North Pacific andCalifornia Current ecosystems (B1-6363)

17:00

Evan A. Howell, John P. Dunne and Jeffrey J. Polovina
Modeling the central North Pacific ecosystem response to predicted climate variations andfishery management scenarios (B1-6061)

17:15

William L. Cheung, Thomas A. Okey and Richard D. Brodeur
Projecting future change in pelagic nekton communities along the west coast of North America(B1-6276)

17:30

Matthew T. Wilson, Christina M. Jump and Andre Buchheister
Ecology of small neritic fishes in the western Gulf of Alaska: Top-down mechanisms canmoderate bottom-up forcing (B1-6081)

17:45

Philip L. Munday, Danielle L. Dixson, Mark I. McCormick and Mark Meekan
Ocean acidification threatens the replenishment of reef fish populations (B1-6130)

18:00

Nicholas Graham, Pascale Chabanet, Richard Evans, Simon Jennings, Yves Letourneur,
M. Aaron MacNeil, Tim McClanahan, Marcus Öhman, Nicholas Polunin and Charles
Sheppard
Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes in response to climate change and fisheries
exploitation (B1-6095)

18:15

Nam-Il Won, Tomohiko Kawamura, Hideki Takami, Hiroshi Hoshikawa and Yoshiro
WatanabeComparison of benthic community structure in natural habitats of abalone Haliotis discus
hannai affected by different current systems (B1-6328)

18:30

Session ends

Posters
B1-6025

Skip McKinnell and Enrique N. Curchitser
Thermal refugia in the 21st century

B1-6046

C. Tracy Shaw, Leah R. Feinberg and William T. Peterson
Potential effects of climate change on the euphausiids Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa
spinifera off Newport, OR, USA

B1-6067

Toby D. Auth, Richard D. Brodeur, Heather L. Soulen, Lorenzo Ciannelli and William T.
PetersonLong-term changes in fish larvae in the northern California Current in relation to climate
variability

B1-6091

Genta Takeda, Yoshinari Endo and Waka Sato-Okoshi
Seasonal change in species composition of hydromedusae and the effect of environmental
change in Onagawa Bay, northeastern Japan

B1-6100

Kate E. Watermeyer, A. Jarre, L.J. Shannon and Larry Hutchings
Ecosystem implications of the recent southward shift of key components in the southern
Benguela21

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
B1-6125

Wen-Tseng Lo, Hung-Yen Hsieh, Dong-Chung Liu and Wei-Cheng Su
Effect of water masses on larval fish distribution during the summer SW monsoon in Taiwanesewaters, western North PacificB1-6170

Tsuneo Ono, Kazuaki Tadokoro and the A-line Monitoring Team
Ecosystem responses to ocean stratification and early-bloom occurrence in the future western
subarctic North Pacific: A speculation from retrospective analyses

B1-6175

Sachihiko Itoh, Ichiro Yasuda, Tohru Ikeya and Haruka Nishikawa
Time series observations of chlorophyll fluorescence along the Kuroshio Extension by profiling
floats

B1-6223

Andrey Suntsov and Tony Koslow
Long-term temporal trends in ichthyoplankton community composition in the southern
California Current System

B1-6238

Rubén J. Lara, Germán A. Kopprio, Carlos A. Strüssmann and Hugo Freije
Uncertain future of fish populations in Argentinean coastal lakes: The impact of severe droughts
and floods

B1-6274

Sekharapilla PremjithStudies on the hydrobiology of the coconut husk retting grounds in the AVM Canal in Thoothoor
region, southwest coast of India

B1-6333

Yuji Okazaki and Kazuaki Tadokoro
Early life history of Euphausia pacifica in the western North PacificB1-6382

Juan Carlos Molinero, Michele Casini, Jakov Dulcic, Branka Grbec, Manuel Hidalgo,
Lyudmila Kambourska, Andreas Lehman, Marcos Llope and Mira Morovic
Climate and fishing pressure drive a non stationary behaviour in the long-term changes ofpelagic food webs in European Shelf Seas

B1-6415

Yu-Kai Chen, Yi-Jay Chang, Chi-Lu Sun, Chi-Lun Wu, Dong-Chung Liu and Wei-Cheng Su
Identification of the relationship between environmental features and copepod abundances in
the Kuroshio waters adjacent to eastern Taiwan using generalized additive models

B1-6425

Jacquelynne R. King, Vera N. Agostini, Gordon McFarlane, Christopher Harvey, Michael
Foreman, James E. Overland and Kerim Aydin
Climate Forcing and Marine Ecosystems of the North Pacific22Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B2

Comparing responses to climate variability among nearshore, shelfand oceanic regions

Co-Convenors:
Jürgen Alheit (Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Germany)
Vladimir Radchenko (Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, Russia)
Over the last two decades, convincing evidence has been collected that global and regional climate variability
is a strong driving force of changes in marine ecosystems (and the fish and shell fish populations embedded inthem). Climate drivers influence near-shore, shelf and oceanic regions. However, the same climate signal may becorrelated with different responses of marine populations among these regions, due to the different mechanisms
by which climate variability impacts these communities and the role of human activities in modifying thesemechanisms, particularly in near-shore areas. Whereas the effect of climate variability has been intensely studiedin single marine systems or on single species/species groups across different systems, comparisons of climatic
influences on coastal and oceanic systems are generally lacking. As marine ecosystems are not amenable toexperimental investigations with respect to climate effects, comparative analyses are the best way to enhance ourknowledge on the response of ecosystems and their populations. Ecosystem regime shifts and teleconnection
patterns in the reaction of distant marine ecosystems towards climate impacts are important phenomena which help
us to better understand responses to climate variability. The goal of this session is to (1) discuss the interactions,ramifications, and potential connections between climate variability and marine ecosystems, and (2) demonstrate
the impact of climate variability with a view to future climate change.

Wednesday, April 28 (9:00-13:15)
9:00

Introduction by Convenors

9:05

Svein Sundby (Invited)
Changes in productivity of marine ecosystems from low to high latitudes under climate
variability and change (B2-6213)

9:30

Jae Bong Lee and Bernard A. Megrey
On the utility of self-organizing maps (SOM) and k-means clustering to characterize andcompare low frequency spatial and temporal climate impacts on marine ecosystem productivity(B2-6225)

9:45

Elvira S. Poloczanska, Keith Brander, Chris Brown, John Bruno, Lauren Buckley,
Michael T. Burrows, Carlos Duarte, Pippa Moore, Mary O’Connor, John Pandolfi,
Camille Parmesan, Maria Sanchez-Camacho, David Schoeman, William J. Sydeman andAnthony J. Richardson
Marine climate change impacts: Out of sight but not out of mind (B2-6278)

10:00

Thomas A. Okey, Jameal F. Samhouri, Cameron H. Ainsworth, D. Shallin Busch andWilliam L. Cheung
Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine ecosystems (B2-6261)

10:15

Kenneth Drinkwater and the RECLAIM Team
Ecosystem response to future climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: Results from the
RECLAIM Project (B2-6244)

10:30

Susa Niiranen, Thorsten Blenckner and Reinette Biggs
Are general mechanisms found behind regime shifts across marine ecosystems? (B2-6188)

10:45

Coffee/Tea Break

11:05

Nicholas K. Dulvy (Invited)
Housing crisis: Climate change-induced habitat loss impacts on temperate and tropical fishes(B2-6054)

23

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
11:30

Lisa B. Eisner, Seth Danielson, Edward W. Farley, Jeanette Gann and Markus Janout
Spatial and interannual variability in oceanography, plankton and forage fish in the Bering Sea:
Results from U.S. BASIS surveys for 2002-2008 (B2-6043)

11:45

Anatoliy Ya. Velikanov
Climatic trends and long-term changes in species composition and abundance of pelagic fishes
along the Sakhalin coast in the Japan Sea and the Okhotsk Sea (B2-6012)

12:00

Miguel Ñiquen and Cecilia Peña
Response of dominant species in coastal and oceanic regions of Peru (B2-6296)

12:15

Jürgen Alheit
The limits for forecasting fish population dynamics under changing climate scenarios: The
example of small pelagic fishes (B2-6247)

12:30

Konstantin Rogachev
Thermal limits and coastal migration of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) determined bysubmesoscale circulation (B2-6023)

12:45

Hideaki Kidokoro, Norio Yamashita, Tsuneo Goto and Yongjun Tian
Changes in the stock size and life history traits of Japanese common squid Todarodes pacificus
in relation to climate changes, with special comparison between in the Kuroshio-Oyashio
currents region and the Sea of Japan (B2-6228)

13:00

Brian J. Rothschild
Coupling between multi-decadal transients in fish stock abundance and anthropogenic forcing(B2-6397)

13:15

Session ends

Posters
B2-6006

Vladimir B. Darnitskiy and Maxim A. Ishchenko
Short-period variability of oceanologic conditions in the vicinity of the Pulkovskaya seamount(Part I)

B2-6007

Vladimir B. Darnitskiy and Maxim A. Ishchenko
Short-period variability of oceanologic conditions in the vicinity of the Pulkovskaya seamount(Part II)

B2-6072

Olga Hernandez, Patrick Lehodey, Inna Senina, Arnaud Bertrand, Ramiro Castillo,
Vincent Echevin and Philippe Gaspar
Modelling anchovy population in the Humboldt upwelling system

B2-6088

Svetlana Yu. Glebova
Change in character of winter cyclonic activity over the Asian-Pacific region in 1996-2009 andits influence on a thermal regime of the Far East Seas

B2-6132

Boris Prischepa, Oleg Titov and Yuri Lepesevich
Climate change and prospects of fisheries in the Barents Sea and adjacent Arctic seas

B2-6137

Jennifer Menkel and William T. Peterson
Response of krill to climate change in the California current: Temporal and spatial variationsin population “hotspots”

24Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
B2-6163

Rubén Rodríguez-Sánchez, Héctor Villalobos and Sofía Ortega-García
Spatial dynamics of small pelagic fish in the California Current system on the regime timescale: Parallel processes in other species-ecosystems

B2-6186

Kosei Komatsu, Arisa Yamawaki, Daisuke Ambe, Takahiko Kameda, Takashi Setou andManabu Shimizu
Impacts of mesoscale variations of water masses on larval survival processes of pelagic fishes
around the Kuroshio based on an eddy resolving ocean ecosystem model

B2-6198

Sean Lucey and Janet A. Nye
Shifting species assemblages within the Northeast US Large Marine Ecosystem

B2-6248

Jürgen Alheit and 12 co-authors
Reaction of northern hemisphere ecosystems to the climate events in the late 1980s:
A comparison of regime shifts and teleconnection patterns

B2-6271

Chun Li Liu and Dan Ling Tang (Cancelled)
Distribution variation of phytoplankton effect by typhoon winds in the South China Sea

B2-6320

Daisuke Ambe, Kosei Komatsu, Manabu Shimizu, Akira Okuno and Akinori Takasuka
Environmental temperature impacts on the early survival process of larval Japanese sardine

B2-6373

Jay O. Peterson and William T. Peterson
Evidence of climate change in the northern California Current ecosystem and its impact on the
distribution and community composition of zooplankton

B2-6392

Takashige Sugimoto and Masato Niki
Long-term variations in the catch of sergestid shrimp in Suruga Bay induced by variations in the
Kuroshio path and climate regime shifts

25Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

C1

Impacts on fisheries and coastal communities

Co-Convenors:
Keith Brander (National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark)
Suam Kim (Pukyong National University, Korea)
Climate change has had an impact on fisheries and coastal communities throughout history, due to environmentally
driven fish stock fluctuations, changes in species distribution, extreme events and changes in sea-level. The
survival of coastal communities depended on being able to cope with such changes, by altering their fishingpractices or switching to alternative livelihoods. In many cases communities did not survive or suffered economic
hardship and emigration. Although some adaptability can be expected in response to anthropogenic climatechange, the new situation is different in a number of ways. The expected rate of change is rapid and in one
direction; most fisheries are already under pressure from overfishing, habitat degradation and other sea and coastal
uses; new pressures arise from sea-level rise and ocean acidification. This session will focus on forecasts of
expected impacts of climate change on the coastal fish stocks and the communities that depend on them as well
as strategies for survival under a changing climate.

Wednesday, April 28 (9:00-13:00)
9:00

Introduction by Convenors

9:05

R. Ian Perry, Manuel Barange, Francisco E. Werner, Eileen Hofmann and Rosemary
Ommer (Invited)
Adapting marine social-ecological systems to a world of change: Lessons from the GLOBEC
experience (C1-6210)

9:30

Sujan Saha
Postlarvae fishing, biodiversity and livelihoods under climate change: A case study on southwest
coastal community in Bangladesh (C1-6310)

9:45

Eva Papaioannou, Athanasios Vafeidis, Jörn O. Schmidt and Martin F. Quaas
Modeling the spatial distribution of coastal fisheries of the Baltic Sea using Geographic
Information Systems (C1-6340)

10:00

Ming-An Lee, Kuo-Wei Lan, Kuo-Ten Lee and Yi Chang
Satellite observation on the cold water intrusion related to the exceptional fishery disaster during
the ENSO events in the Taiwan Strait (C1-6174)

10:15

Audrey J. Geffen, Arild Folkvord, Hans Høie, Anne Karin Hufthammer, Carin Andersson,
Kjell Nedreaas and Ulysses S. Ninemann (presented by Mei-Yu Chang)High latitude climate variability and its implications for fish resources as revealed by fossil
otoliths of cod (Gadus morhua) (C1-6201)

10:30

Tatiana Krupnova, Yury I. Zuenko, Vladimir Matveev, Irina Tsypysheva and Vladimir
Pavlyuchkov
Reconstruction of bottom phytocenoses on the coast of Primorye caused by climate change(C1-6233)

10:45

Coffee/Tea Break

11:05

Kevern L. Cochrane, Tarub Bahri, Cassandra de Young and Doris Soto (Invited)
Evolution in an instant: Adaptation and resilience to climate change in fisheries (C1-6400)

11:30

Akhmad Fauzi, Subandono Diposaptono and Suzy Anna
Socio-economic impacts of climate change on coastal communities: The case of the north coastof Java small-pelagic fisheries (C1-6124)

26

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
11:45

Janet C. Coetzee, Kobus Agenbag, Carl van der Lingen, Larry Hutchings, Jan van derWesthuizen, Awie Badenhorst and Mike Copeland
Impacts of changing weather patterns on the efficiency of South Africa’s purse-seine fishery (C1-6351)

12:00

Jong Hee Lee, Jae Bong Lee, Young Min Choi and Chang Ik Zhang
Detecting decadal changes in marine environmental characteristics and fishery resources in
Korean waters (C1-6166)

12:15

Eider Andonegi, Jose Antonio Fernandes, Iñaki Quincoces, Xabier Irigoien, Daniel Howell
and Gunnar Stefansson
The potential use of a Gadget model to predict stock responses to climate change in combination
with Bayesian networks: The case of the Bay of Biscay anchovy (C1-6236)

12:30

Asuncion De Guzman, Cesaria Jimenez, Angelo Macario, Juliet Madula and Jayrald
Santamnina
Shifts in species abundance of sardine fisheries in southern Philippines: Early signs ofvulnerability to climate change? (C1-6197)

12:45

Nhung T.H. Nguyen and Hien T.H. Than
Challenge and opportunity of climate change: Case studies in Vietnamese coastal communities(C1-6304)

13:00

Session ends

Posters
C1-5998

Maria Rebecca A. Campos
Assessment of adaptation responses of coastal communities in the Philippines to the impacts ofclimate change

C1-6040

Dmitry A. Galanin, V.A. Sergeenko and A.R. Repnikova
Status of short-spined sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus intermedius) colonies and kelp (Laminaria
japonica) thicket along southwestern Sakhalin coastC1-6116

K.J. Thara, R. Sajeev and T. Pankajakshan
Impacts of ENSO and IOD on summer monsoon rainfall and oil sardine fishery along the west
coast of India

C1-6146

Julius I. Agboola
Loss of mangrove wetlands and implications for climate change, fisheries and food security in
Lagos coastal lagoons shorelines (West Africa)

C1-6147

Mark Prime, Ralf Bublitz, Bob Houghton and Magnus Johnson
The effect of climate change upon the inshore fisheries of the United Kingdom

C1-6242

Tomoaki Goto
Trends of coastal fisheries in Iwate Prefecture, Pacific coast of northern Japan, with relation to
the long-term oceanographic fluctuations

C1-6257

Jin Koo Kim, Gi-Sik Min, Moon-Geun Yoon and Yeonghye Kim
Mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA structure of the small yellow croaker, Larimichthyspolyactis (Pisces: Sciaenidae) in the Yellow and East China Seas

27

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
C1-6265

Melissa Nursey-Bray, Gretta Pecl, Stewart Frusher, Caleb Gardner, Marcus Haward,
Alistair J. Hobday, Sarah Jennings, André E. Punt, Hilary Revill and Ingrid van Putten
Contesting views or collaborative opportunity? Risk perception, science and fisheries
management, Tasmania, Australia

C1-6284

Suam Kim, Sangwook Yeh, Chung-Il Lee, Sukyung Kang, Hyunwoo Kang, Jin-Hee Yoon,
Jung J. Kim and Sinjae Yoo
Forecasting practice on the common squid (Todarodes pacificus) population responding climate/oceanographic changes

C1-6309

Jung Hwa Ryu, Jin Koo Kim and Dong Seon Kim
Fluctuation on fish fauna in the east southern sea of Korea during 2006-2009

C1-6378

Salvador Lluch-Cota, René Kachok and María Verónica Morales-Zárate
Reasons for high vulnerability of coastal fishing communities of Baja California (Mexico) andpotential adaptation strategies to climate change

28

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

C2

Evaluating human responses, management strategies and economic
implications

Co-Convenors:
Kevern Cochrane (Fishery Resources Division, Food and Agriculture Organization)
Jake Rice (Ecosystem Science Directorate, DFO, Canada)
Humans depend on the oceans for many goods and services essential to their well-being. As terrestrial and marine
ecosystems change in response to climate, these dependencies are expected to become even greater, particularly,
but hardly exclusively, for food security. This session will focus on how society, at a range of scales from
community to population, might adapt to the changes expected in the oceans, and in the goods and services on
which they depend so that optimal benefits may be obtained without unacceptable increases in the risks to thesystems. Contributions from social scientists, economists, and policy experts are welcomed, as well as fromnatural scientists interested in strategies for sustainable use of marine resources in the face of changing humanneeds as well as changing ocean conditions. Just a few decades in the future, societies and governments may facevery difficult choices about the proper balance between provision of food security and conservation of marine
biodiversity for an even bigger human population confronted with changing, possibly declining, aquatic andterrestrial food production. The proper balance between established uses of oceans and coastal regions and newuses, such as wind and tidal power, must also be faced. This session is intended to open an expert dialogue onthese important questions, through a mixture of conceptual, analytical, and case-history presentations.

Wednesday, April 28 (14:30-18:30)
14:30

Introduction by Convenors

14:35

Bonnie J. McCay (Invited)
Surfclam dramas and other stories about the human dimensions of climate change and fisheries(C2-6018)

15:00

Serge M. Garcia, Andrew A. Rosenberg and Jake Rice
Food security, fisheries, and climate change (C2-6021)

15:15

Gretta Pecl, Rebecca Brown, Peter Walsh, Stewart Frusher, Graham Edgar, Jeremy Lyle,
Elvira S. Poloczanska and Rick Stuart-Smith
Citizen science as a research tool for monitoring ecological change in the marine environment(C2-6282)

15:30

Renae C. Tobin and Stephen G. Sutton
Will diversity assist adaptability? A case study contrasting diverse and specialized fishingsectors in the Queensland Inshore Fishery, Australia (C2-6300)

15:45

Ikutaro Shimizu, Tsutomu Ohnuki and Kunio Abe
Economic strategies for avoiding climate change effects on Japanese salmon fisheries (C2-6098)

16:00

Coffee/Tea Break

16:20

Johann D. Bell (Invited)
Climate change, fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific – Implications for food security,
livelihoods and economic growth (C2-6185)

16:45

Milena Arias-Schreiber, Miguel Ñiquen and Marilou Bouchon
Adapting to climate change – Lessons from the Peruvian anchovy fishery on how to cope withextreme climatic events and environmental variability (C2-6346)

17:00

Satsuki Takahashi
In search of new sea legs: Women’s roles in the survival of Japan’s fishing industry (C2-6122)

29

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
17:15

Henry P. Huntington, Alpina Begossi and Renato A.M. Silvano
Traditional fisheries practices and adaptation to environmental change: Case studies from
Alaska and Brazil (C2-6055)

17:30

Renato A.M. Silvano, Henry P. Huntington and Alpina Begossi
Fishers’ local ecological knowledge about fish and climatic change (C2-6318)

17:45

Friday J. Njaya
The Lake Chilwa fishing household strategies in response to water level changes: Migrationand conflicts (C2-6129)

18:00

Pedcris M. Orencio and Masahiko Fujii
Building community adaptability through ecosystem approach planning in the Province of
Aurora, Philippines (C2-6159)

18:15

Sahri Muhammad, Pudji Purwanti and Aida Sartimbul
Household fishermen empowerment based on local community wisdom as a problem solver on
fishermen poverty: Case study in Madura Strait, Indonesia (C2-6207)

18:30

Session ends

Posters
C2-6086

Siyanbola Adewumi Omitoyin, Tosan Fregene and Dontsop PaulImpact of climate change on livelihood and food security of artisanal fisherfolks in Lagos State,
NigeriaC2-6140

Francois Bastardie, J. Rasmus Nielsen, Bo Sølgaard Andersen and Ole Eigaard
Modeling energy consumption efficiency of fisheries: What to gain by effort displacement?
The case of Danish Skagerrat-Kattegat fisheriesC2-6155

Michael D. Pido, Ruth Guzman, Maripaz L. Perez, Elvira Martija, Elen R. Basug and Len
R. Garces
The role of the academe in undertaking research and developing management strategies
to address climate change impacts on fisheries: Some examples of initiatives of academic
institutions in the Philippines

C2-6169

Ingrid L. Holliday“Bringing it all together” – A multi-disciplined, collaborative approach to preparing fisheries
and aquaculture for climate change in South Eastern Australia

C2-6172

Felipe Hurtado-Ferro, Sachihiko Itoh and Kunio Shirakihara
Could management react to a changing climate? The case of the Japanese small pelagic fishes

C2-6178

I Nyoman Radiarta, Sei-ichi Saitoh and Toru Hirawake
Potential impacts of climate change on Japanese scallop aquaculture: A case study in Funka
Bay, Hokkaido, Japan

C2-6281

Neil Holbrook, Gretta Pecl, Alistair J. Hobday and Stewart Frusher
Australian National Climate Change Adaptation Research Network for Marine Biodiversity andResources30

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

D2

Contemporary and next generation climate and oceanographic
models, technical advances and new approaches

Co-Convenors:
Jonathan Hare (Northeast Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Shin-ichi Ito (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)
The projection of marine ecosystem response to future climate scenarios is needed to assess and implement marine
ecosystem management. The marine ecosystem is part of the earth system, and prediction of ecosystem responses
requires integrated knowledge from physical, chemical, and biological perspectives, as well as from marine,
terrestrial and atmospheric perspectives. The earth system is complex with non-linear feedbacks (including
biological to physical), regime shifts, and, in some cases, thresholds beyond which change is irreversible. Therefore,
the uncertainties of climate and oceanographic models cause uncertainties of the projection of marine ecosystem
response not only directly but also through complex feedback mechanisms. To reduce the uncertainties of themarine ecosystem projection, we must understand the mechanisms controlling climate systems and the linkages
to marine ecosystems. Specific species responses to future ecosystem conditions are required by natural resource
managers, and these require specific information (e.g., environments in coastal area during the short spawningperiod) as well as information regarding change of the ecosystem as a whole (e.g., total primary production, foodweb dynamics). These issues are not part of climate modeling, but mechanistic links between the biological,
physical, and chemical systems must be identified and incorporated into coupled population-ecosystem-climate
models. Technical advances and new approaches are essential to achieve the goal of producing better projectionsof marine ecosystem response to future climate scenarios. This session will focus on climate and oceanographic
models, including modeling of climate and ecosystem interaction, and technical advances and new approaches.

Wednesday, April 28 (14:30-18:30)
14:30

Introduction by Convenors

14:35

Michio Kawamiya (Invited)
Global change projection for ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem (D2-6117)

15:00

Masami Nonaka, Bunmei Taguchi, Hideharu Sasaki and Hisashi Nakamura
Decadal variability in the oceanic frontal zones in the western North Pacific Ocean in an eddyresolving OGCM (D2-6325)

15:15

Georgina A. Gibson, Kate Hedström, Enrique N. Curchitser and Albert J. Hermann (D2-6209)
Simulating lower trophic level ecosystem dynamics in the Bering Sea

15:30

Yasumasa Miyazawa, Xinyu Guo, Ruo Chao Zhang, Sergey M. Varlamov, Tomowo
Watanabe, Takashi Setou and Daisuke Ambe
Roles of the in-situ observations in the detection of the Kuroshio frontal variability south ofJapan (D2-6324)

15:45

Enrique N. Curchitser, Kate Hedström, William Large and Jon Wolf
From a climate to a multi-scale earth system model: Technical issues and advances (D2-6357)

16:00

Coffee/Tea Break

16:20

Anand Gnanadesikan (Invited)
Climate models and fisheries: Opportunities and challenges (D2-6123)

16:45

Kosei Komatsu, Naoki Yoshie, Shin-ichi Ito, Takahiko Kameda, Tsuneo Ono, Kiyotaka
Hidaka, Toru Hasegawa, Akira Kuwata, Miwa Nakamachi, Yuji Okazaki, Takeshi
Okunishi, Kazuaki Tadokoro, Hiroaki Saito and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Interannual variations of 3D structures of lower-trophic-level ecosystems in the western North
Pacific using a new marine ecosystem model based on an eddy-resolving data-assimilative
OGCM (D2-6323)

31

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
17:00

Francisco E. Werner, Peter H. Wiebe and Jonathan A. Hare
Developing a modeling framework for basin scale models of marine ecosystems (D2-6348)

17:15

Michio J. Kishi, Shin-ichi Ito, Bernard A. Megrey, Kenneth A. Rose and Francisco E.
Werner
A review of the NEMURO.FISH model application to marine ecosystem investigations and its
ability to evaluate responses of fish to future climate change (D2-6298)

17:30

Scott Condie, Mark Hepburn, Jim Mansbridge and Phillip England
A second generation online tool for exploring oceanographic connectivity (D2-6051)

17:45

Ülo Suursaar, Markus Vetemaa and Tiit Kullas
Climate change induced decadal variations in hydrodynamic conditions in the Estonian coastal
waters and their possible influence on fish (D2-6131)

18:00

William Peterson, Hongsheng Bi, Cheryl A. Morgan and Edmundo Casillas
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and marine food webs in the northern California Current:
Variations in source waters which feed the California Current may be the mechanism whichlinks climate change with ecosystem response (D2-6384)

18:15

Maria A. Gasalla, O. Sato and P.S. Polito
An application of the ethno-oceanographic framework to study global change issues off theSouth Brazil Bight with remote-sensing data (D2-6388)

18:30

Session ends

Posters
D2-6093

Hui Wang, Guimei Liu, Fei Chai, Xingyu Song and Shan Gao (Cancelled)
Climate change and the ecosystem response in the South China Sea: Observations and numericalinvestigations

D2-6104

Aleksey V. Koldunov
Variability of the biotic material flow divergence patterns of the Azores

D2-6177

Taketo Hashioka, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Hiroshi Sumata, Takeshi Okunishi, Masahito
Shigemitsu, Maki N. Aita, Naoki Yoshie, Naosuke Okada, Akio Ishida and Yasuhiro
YamanakaPotential impact of global warming on North Pacific spring blooms projected by an eddypermitting 3-D ocean ecosystem modelD2-6192

Tatsuro Watanabe, Katsumi Takayama, Hideyuki Kawamura and Iori Tanaka
One dimensional ecosystem model in the northern Japan Sea based on an operational ocean
forecast system

D2-6256

Naoki Yoshie, Kosei Komatsu, Shin-ichi Ito, Takahiko Kameda, Tsuneo Ono, Kiyotaka
Hidaka, Toru Hasegawa, Akira Kuwata, Miwa Nakamachi, Yuji Okazaki, Takeshi
Okunishi, Kazuaki Tadokoro, Hiroaki Saito and Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Dynamics of lower-trophic-level ecosystems in the western North Pacific simulated by a highresolution 3D ecosystem model

D2-6277

Takeshi Okunishi, Shin-ichi Ito, Naoki Yoshie, Taketo Hashioka, Hiroshi Sumata andYasuhiro Yamanaka
The impact of density-dependent processes on geographical distribution of Japanese sardine(Sardinops melanostictus)

32

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
D2-6322

Hiroaki Tatebe, Masayoshi Ishii, Masahide Kimoto, Takashi T. Sakamoto, Yoshiki Komuro
and Takashi Mochizuki
Interannual to decadal modulations of high frequency eddies in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluencezone in a high-resolution CGCM with ocean data assimilation

D2-6337

Takashi T. Sakamoto, Yoshiki Komuro, Masayoshi Ishii, Hiroaki Tatebe, Akira Hasegawa,
Hideo Shiogama, Takahiro Toyoda, Masato Mori, Seita Emori, Hiroyasu Hasumi and
Masahide Kimoto
MIROC4.0 – A high-resolution AOGCM for the near-term climate prediction

33

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

GP

General Poster Session

GP-5783

Vladimir B. Darnitskiy and Maxim A. Ishchenko
Kuroshio System – The quasi-cyclic dynamics and the bifurcation from the source to the
Shatskikiy hills

GP-6084

Chiara Papetti, Mario La Mesa, Jennifer Rock, Esteban Barrera-Oro, Tomaso Patarnello
and Lorenzo Zane
Contrasting pattern of genetic differentiation between two Antarctic Channinchthyidae fish
species at the West Antarctic Peninsula

GP-6134

Minoru Tomiyama and Teruhisa Komatsu
The influence of seawater temperature on sandeel stock in Ise Bay

GP-6193

Eleuterio Yáñez and María Angela Barbieri
Climate change and fisheries in Chile

GP-6204

Aida Sartimbul, Hideaki Nakata and Erfan Rohadi
Chlorophyll a concentration dynamics due climate change and its possible impact on pelagic
fishes at Java and Bali, Indonesia: Case study in 2006

GP-6205

Oky Rosita Tanjung, Aida Sartimbul and Anthon Efani
The implication of oceanographic and meteorological factors on algae blooming events andpossible impact on the Sardinella lemuru fishery along the coast of Bali, Indonesia

GP-6206

Sary Rahmawati, Aida Sartimbul and Daduk Setyohadi
Biological aspects and population dynamics of mud crab (Scylla serrata) in the mangrove areaof Curah Sawo, Probolinggo, Indonesia

GP-6326

Chia-Hui Wang and Hui-Lun Chen
Biological studies of the oval squid Sepioteuthis lessoniana population in northern Taiwan

GP-6327

Kazumi Sakuramoto, Satomi Shimoyama and Naoki Suzuki (Cancelled)
Forecasting models in the recruitment of Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, in thenorthwestern Pacific, incorporating environmental conditions and evaluations of management
effects

GP-6332

Naoki Suzuki and Kazumi Sakuramoto
Effect of measurement errors on model selection in analyses of the stock–recruitment relationshipGP-6369

Luis A. Cubillos, Leonardo R. Castro and Gabriel Claramunt
Fishery-induced changes on the reproductive cycle of two small pelagic fish off central Chile

GP-6410Dmitry D. Kaplunenko, Vyacheslav B. Lobanov, Alexander Yu. Lazaryuk, Pavel Ya.
Tishchenko and Vladimir A. Zvalinsky
Measurements of NO3 saturation in the Japan Sea by in situ and hydrochemical methods

GP-6412

Jingfeng Fan, Gengchen Han, Chuanlin Huo, Xinzhen Lin and Chunjiang Guan
(Cancelled)
Response of zooplankton and phytoplankton to climate change in China

34

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W1

Reducing global and national vulnerability to climate change inthe fisheries sectors: Policy perspectives post Copenhagen

Co-Convenors:
Cassandra de Young (Food and Agriculture Organization)
Eddie Allison (WorldFish Center, Malaysia on behalf of the Global Partnership on Climate, Fisheries andAquaculture (PaCFA))
The challenges of climate change are a top priority for world leaders. About 520 million people—8% of theworld’s population—depend on fisheries and aquaculture as a source of protein, income, or family stability, manyof them from vulnerable communities in tropical and low-lying areas and Small Island Developing States. The
countries that are most vulnerable to climate change impacts on their fisheries are among the world’s poorest,
whose inhabitants are twice as dependent upon fish for food as those of other nations, with 27% of dietary protein
derived from fish compared with 13% elsewhere (Allison et al. 2009).
The Global Partnership on Climate, Fisheries and Aquaculture (PaCFA) was created in 2009 to encourage states toinclude aquatic ecosystems, fisheries and aquaculture issues when formulating action to combat climate change,
particularly in the build up to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) COP15 meeting in
Copenhagen, December 2009. PaCFA recognizes that many governmental, non-governmental and civil society
organizations have become actively engaged in the search for improved knowledge of the likely impacts ofclimate change on fisheries and aquaculture (Cochrane et al. 2009) and providing assistance to countries andcommunities to develop policies and strategies for adaptation and development of resilience to likely changes.
However, these actions tend to take place in isolation from each other with a minimum of communication, sharingof experiences and cooperation. The role of PaCFA is to increase the effectiveness of these actions throughincreased collaboration, complementing mandates and capabilities of each organization and maximising theeffectiveness of joint efforts.
The objectives of this workshop are to (1) present the goals and strategy of PaCFA; (2) inform participants
about the COP15 decisions regarding adaptation and mitigation actions relevant to the reduction of vulnerability
to climate change impacts on fisheries, aquaculture and marine ecosystems – including built-in mechanisms
to do so within the UNFCCC; (3) consider the responses of individual agencies and institutions to COP-15
and any adaptation and mitigation efforts in response to climate changes; (4) discuss how the PaCFA canassist national and multinational agencies reduce the vulnerability of countries and regions to climate change
impacts on fisheries and marine ecosystems, with particular emphasis on LDC and small island states;(5) identify the critical gaps in the science underpinning climate impacts on fish production systems and marine
and coastal ecosystems and on potential adaptation.
This workshop will discuss and prepare a Plan of Action in pursue of these objectives. A policy note on next steps
and needs to develop the objectives of PaCFA will be considered. The workshop may also produce a paper for the
Symposium volume summarizing the current state of policy decisions regarding adaptation and mitigation actions
relevant to the reduction of vulnerability to impacts of climate change on fisheries and marine ecosystems, and ananalysis of the quality of the science base (including social sciences) that underpins these decisions.

Sunday, April 25 (9:00-12:30)
9:00

Introduction by Convenors

9:10

Discussion

10:30

Coffee/Tea Break

10:50

Discussion

12:30

Workshop ends

35

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Posters
W1-6368

Jose M.P. Silva, Miguel J.A. Lopes and Ana R.P. Quintas (Cancelled)
Marine ecosystem reestablishment − Seawater electrolyse with carbon capture

W1-6403

Hasan M. Abdullah and Yoshio Awaya
Monitoring the impact of climate change on inland water bodies and fisheries by remote sensing
and GIS technique a case study of Chalan beel (Bangladesh)

36

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Potential impacts of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems
and fisheries

W2
Co-Convenors:

Kenneth L. Denman (Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; DFO, Canada)
Yukihiro Nojiri (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan)
Hans Pörtner (Alfred-Wegener Institute, Germany)
The global ocean is being acidified as carbon dioxide from fossil fuel emissions enters its surface waters. The
magnitude of this increase is directly related to the amount of carbon dioxide added, and more certain than manyother changes related to climate change. Predicting the impacts of increasing acidification on marine ecosystems
and fisheries is difficult due to the lack of knowledge of the ability of individual species and functional groups
to adapt to increasing acidification, especially in combination with related effects associated with climate changesuch as increasing temperature, declining dissolved oxygen (Brewer and Peltzer, 2009), and stratification. Hence,
potential effects cannot yet be represented in models of marine ecosystems. Potential impacts on commercial
fisheries are significant: an analysis of 2007 US ‘at vessel’ fisheries value indicates 73% of the value is associatedwith calcium carbonate organisms and their direct predators (Cooley and Doney, 2009).
This workshop will discuss manipulation experiments and observations on the effects of high acidity (low pH)
caused by elevated carbon dioxide on organisms at all trophic levels of fisheries foodwebs, modelling approaches
to predict the impact of continuing increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, effects on marine biodiversity, andeconomic and social impacts on marine fisheries.
It is expected that the workshop will produce a white paper on these research directions and a summary article in
PICES Press.

Sunday, April 25 (9:00-15:45)
9:00

Introduction by Convenors

9:05

Kenneth L. Denman, James Christian, Nadja Steiner and Warren Lee
Acidification of the global ocean: Observational evidence and projections to 2100 with theCanadian Earth System Model (CanESM) (W2-6370)

9:20

Masako Nakamura, Shun Ohki, Atsushi Suzuki and Kazuhiko Sakai
Metabolism and metamorphosis of coral larvae in acidified seawater (W2-6149)

9:35

Lailah G. Lartey-Antwi and Andreas J. Andersson
Effects of ocean acidification on the growth of the flat-tree oyster, Isognomon alatus (Gmelin,1791) (W2-6259)

9:50

Ryota Suwa and Yoshihisa Shirayama
Effects of diurnal pCO2 fluctuation on sea urchin larvae: A preliminary report (W2-6361)

10:05

Haruko Kurihara
Overview of the impacts of ocean acidification on the early development of fishes and shellfishes(W2-6303)

10:20

Coffee/Tea Break

10:40

Awantha Dissanayake, Atsushi Ishimatsu, Haruko Kurihara and So Kawaguchi
Climate change impacts (ocean acidification and temperature) on the metabolic scope andactivity of nektonic organisms: A crustacean example (W2-6311)

10:55

Kehinde Salau
Mathematical approach to modeling the effects of ocean acidification on the pteropod and pinksalmon population (W2-6243)

37

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
11:10

Atsushi Ishimatsu, Atsuko Fukuda and Haruko Kurihara
Effects of CO2-driven ocean acidification and warming on early development of fish (W2-6291)

11:25

Philip L. Munday, Monica Gagliano, Simon Thorrold, Jennifer M. Donelson and Danielle
L. Dixson
Ocean acidification does not affect the early life history development of a tropical marine fish
(W2-6128)

11:40

David M. Checkley, Jr.
Effects of elevated pCO2 on fish otoliths – Results, inference, and experimental design (W2-6390)

11:55

Short Introduction Posters (3 min. each)

12:30

Lunch

14:00

Poster viewing session (60 min)

15:00

Closing Discussion

15:45

Workshop ends

Posters
W2-6065

Steven S. Rumrill, Alicia R. Helms and Adam S. DeMarzo
Variability in pH values and the potential influence of ocean acidification on oysters and othershellfish in Pacific Northwest estuaries

W2-6237

Koji Sugie, Hisashi Endo, Koji Suzuki and Takeshi Yoshimura
Increase in the Si:N drawdown ratio of the Bering Sea phytoplankton community under highCO2 and iron-limited conditions

W2-6249

Hideki Takami, Ryo Kimura, Tsuneo Ono, Toshihiro Onitsuka and Yukihiro Nojiri
Effects of ocean acidification on the early developmental stages of Ezo abalone Haliotis discus
hannaiW2-6287

Jun Kita
Impact of a high-CO2 environment on Japanese Ivory-shell, Babylonia japonica

W2-6288

Umme Salma and Hyun Woo Kim
Effects of CO2 induction on development of Brine Shrimp (Artemia franciscana)W2-6344

Bo Kwang Kim and Hyun Woo Kim
Molecular technique analysis of effect of ocean acidfication on brine shrimp

W2-6422

Will Le Quesne and John K. Pinnegar
Physiology to Fisheries: Starting steps and future approaches

38

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Coupled climate-to-fish-to-fishers models for understanding
mechanisms underlying low frequency fluctuations in small
pelagic fish and projecting its future

W3
Co-Convenors:

Salvador Lluch-Cota (Centro de Investigaciones Biologicas del Noroeste (CIBNOR), Mexico)
Enrique N. Curchitser (Institute for Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, USA)
Shin-ichi Ito (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)
The low-frequency variability of small pelagic fish abundance is one of the most emblematic and best-documented
cases of fish population fluctuations not explained wholly by fishing effort. Over the last 25 years, diverse
observations have been integrated into several hypotheses; however, due to limited-duration time series, hypothesis
testing has proven extremely difficult with the available statistical and empirical tools. As a result, the mechanistic
basis for how the physics, biogeochemistry, and biology interact to result in the various patterns of synchronous
variability across widely separated systems remains unknown. Identification of these mechanisms is necessary
in order to explore projections and to build scenarios of the amplitude and timing of stock fluctuations, and their
responses to human interactions (fisheries) and climate change. The workshop aims to bring and compare stateof-the-art modeling tools and discuss on expertise to tackle this important scientific and environmental problem.
The workshop will likely produce a review paper on state-of-art models for coupled physical and biological(including higher trophic level) systems. It is also expected that papers presented at the workshop will be submitted
for publication in the Symposium volume.

Sunday, April 25 (9:00-17:00)
9:00

Introduction by Convenors

9:30

Ryan R. Rykaczewski
Changes in mesozooplankton size structure along a trophic gradient and implications for thegrowth of small pelagic fish (W3-6365)

9:55

Wolfgang Fennel
A consistent nutrient to fish model for the Baltic Sea (W3-6027)

10:20

Coffee/Tea Break

10:40

George Triantafyllou, Kostas Tsiaras, Stylianos Somarakis, Dimitris Politikos George
Petihakis, Annika Pollani, Shin-ichi Ito and Bernard A. Megrey
Development and implementation of a 3D-IBM in the north Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean)that describes the full life cycle of anchovy (W3-6297)

11:05

Shin-ichi Ito, Takeshi Okunishi, Michio J. Kishi and Muyin Wang
Potential impact of climate change on Pacific saury (W3-6267)

11:30

Kate Hedström, Jerome Fiechter, Kenneth A. Rose, Enrique N. Curchitser, Miguel Bernal,
Shin-ichi Ito and Bernard A. Megrey
Development of a climate-to-fish-to-fishers model: Data structures and domain decomposition (W3-6211)

11:55

Kenneth A. Rose
Should climate-to-fish-to-fishers models be assembled from existing models? (W3-6401)

12:20

Lunch

14:00

Discussion

17:00

Workshop ends

39

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W4

Salmon workshop on climate change

Co-Convenors:

James Irvine (Pacific Biological Station, DFO, Canada)
Masa-aki Fukuwaka (Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)
Suam Kim (Pukyong National University, Korea)
Vladimir Radchenko (Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, Russia)
Loh-Lee Low (Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Shigehiko Urawa (North Pacific Anadromous Fish Commission)
The North Pacific region is home to multiple species of salmonid fishes, including anadromous Pacific salmon
that regularly migrate from freshwater to the sea and back. Salmon provide economic benefits in the form ofsubsistence, commercial, and recreational fisheries, and contribute to the cultural enrichment of the regions where
they occur. Their ecological role is complex as they facilitate energy transfer directly and indirectly at multiple
trophic levels in many ecosystems. Their ability to occupy habitats in fresh, salt, and brackish water has led to aremarkable diversity of life histories, but climate change threatens to alter their distribution and abundance.
Salmon are found most frequently in cooler regions of the Pacific Ocean. In recent years, commercial catches
have been among the highest on record, with no indication of declines. For instance, 2007 catches exceeded
1 million tonnes, with pink and chum salmon constituting 51 and 31% of the catch by weight respectively. Yet
coho, Chinook, and some sockeye salmon populations are declining in many areas.
This one-day workshop will examine scenarios for the future of Pacific salmon, based on climate projections
from coupled ocean/climate or other models or from statistical projections of expected climate changes. The
workshop will emphasize regional scales that are believed to be of particular importance. For example, global
warming may enhance oceanic conditions for some species in some regions, while diminishing them for others.
A good understanding of potential interactions between regional physical and biological processes is critical for
accurate projections of such regional responses. The workshop will provide an opportunity to examine whether the
responses of salmon populations to climate change will differ among regions, and what the mechanisms might be.
It is expected that papers presented at the workshop, as well as documentation from the panel discussion, will be
submitted for publication in the Symposium volume.

Sunday, April 25 (9:00-17:30)
9:00

Introduction by Convenors

9:10

James R. Irvine and Masa-aki Fukuwaka
Setting the stage for predicting climate change effects on Pacific salmon – How has salmon
abundance varied during the last 85 years and why? (W4-6121)

9:30

Masa-aki Fukuwaka, Toshiki Kaga and Tomonori Azumaya
Regional differences in climate factors controlling chum and pink salmon abundance (W4-6096)

9:50

Masahide Kaeriyama, Michio J. Kishi and Hyunju Seo
Global warming and density-dependent effects on Hokkaido chum salmon (W4-6138)

10:10

Ed V. Farley, Jr., Lisa B. Eisner, J. Murphy, R. Heintz and Alex Andrews
Implications of a warming eastern Bering Sea on western Alaska salmon (W4-6203)

10:30

Coffee/Tea Break

10:50

Phillip R. Mundy and Dani F. Evenson
Phenolgy of high latitude chinook salmon populations (W4-6381)

40

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
11:10

Thomas C. Wainwright and Laurie A. Weitkamp
Climate effects and Oregon coast coho salmon: A multi-ecosystem approach (W4-6218)

11:30

Thomas E. Reed, Robin S. Waples, Daniel E. Schindler, Eli Meir and Nathan J. Mantua
Adaptation and persistence of Pacific salmon facing climate change: An individual-basedmodeling analysis (W4-6245)

11:50

Randall M. Peterman, Peter B. Adams, Brigitte Dorner, Douglas L. Drake, Harold
J. Geiger, Kendra Holt, Chris Jordan, David P. Larsen, Steven A. Leider, Richard H.
Lincoln, Anthony R. Olsen, Charles K. Parken, Jeffrey D. Rodgers and Shaun Walbridge
The Salmon Monitoring Advisor: A hierarchical web site to help design and implement salmon
monitoring programs (W4-6087)

12:10

Larry Wasserman
Developing salmon management responses to climate impacts at the watershed scale (W4-6222)

12:30

Lunch

13:30

Short Introduction Posters (10 min each)

14:30

Discussion
Forecasting impacts

15:30

Coffee/Tea Break

16:00

Discussion
Long term research priorities

17:00

Wrap Up, publication plans

17:30

Workshop ends

Posters
W4-6048

Cyril Piou and Etienne Prévost
Atlantic salmon population dynamics under scenarios of climate change: An individual-based
demogenetic approachW4-6133

Sergey Prusov, Boris Prischepa, Elena Samoylova and Svetlana Krylova
Long-term changes in biological characteristics and abundance of Atlantic salmon juveniles andadults from important Kola Peninsula rivers (Russian Federation)

W4-6144

Yasuyuki Miyakoshi, Mitsuhiro Nagata, Makoto Fujiwara and Sei-ichi Saitoh
Effects of coastal seawater temperature on the return rate of hatchery-reared chum salmon in
Hokkaido and recent shifts in coastal environmental conditions and release of juveniles

W4-6180

Yukimasa Ishida, Hiroyasu Adachi, Isao Yagisawa, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Harold J. Geiger
Archeological evidence implies that global warming will shift Japanese chum salmon
distributions northward

W4-6268

Gregory T. Ruggerone, Beverly A. Agler and Jennifer L. Nielsen
Climate, growth, and population dynamics of western Alaska Chinook and coho salmon

41

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W5

Networking across global marine “hotspots”

Co-Convenors:
Gretta Pecl (Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Australia)
Alistair J. Hobday (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Australia)
Stewart Frusher (Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Australia)
Warwick Sauer (Rhodes University, South Africa)
Regional global warming ‘hotspots’, typified by above average ocean temperature increases, provide the potential
for early warning and evidence of the response by natural resources to climate change. In theory, regions atthe ‘front-line’ of climate change should also be leading the field in terms of assessing impacts and evaluating
adaptation options. Networking and synthesising outcomes from across hotspots can facilitate accelerated learningand also indicate sensible pathways for maximising adaptation and minimising impacts for other global regions.
This workshop is designed to (1) highlight where global marine ‘hotspots’ occur now, and where they are projected
to occur in the future; (2) summarize the information currently emerging on biological climate change impacts
in these areas, and (3) discuss the potential for developing a global network of scientists, policy makers andmanagers working in marine hotspots.
Ecological monitoring of hotspots provides us with one of the first opportunities to detect the nature and paceof climate change induced impacts on our marine ecosystems, and also the first prospect for validating species
or ecosystem model projections against reality. Fisheries provide significant social and economic benefits
globally, and early warning of changes in resource quality and/or availability is required to minimize social
tensions (e.g., increased poverty and changes in resource allocation) and societal costs (e.g., income redistribution
and government restructuring). Prior knowledge of how and when resources may alter will also facilitate thedevelopment, application and evaluation of adaptation options for fisheries.
Participants providing or presenting a summary of impacts from any of the global hotspots will be asked tocontribute to a multi-authored publication in a high-ranking international journal. Identification of biologicalchange in these hotspots is the main workshop challenge; however, participants are also requested to identify
publications or unpublished data showing long-term change in oceanographic or physical characteristics of thearea (e.g., SST, currents). Several potential proposals and funding sources for a global network of marine hotspots
will be discussed.

Sunday, April 25 (9:00-17:30)
9:00

Introduction by Convenors

9:15

Alistair J. Hobday and Gretta Pecl
Identification of global marine hotspots: Sentinels for change and vanguards for adaptation(W5-6152)

9:30

Stewart Frusher, Gretta Pecl, Alistair J. Hobday, Craig Johnson and Zoe Doubleday
Climate driven changes in marine assemblages in SE Australia: A southern hemisphere ‘hotspot’(W5-6312)

9:45

Larry Hutchings, Carl van der Lingen, Chris Reason, Frank Shillington, Andy Cockcroft,
Warren Potts, Romina Novo-Henriques, Paul Shaw and Warwick Sauer
The Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (W5-6408)

10:00

Graham Edgar and Stuart Banks
Catastrophic changes to inshore benthic communities following oceanographic warming eventsin the Galapagos archipelago (W5-6321)

10:15

Franz J. Mueter
Biological responses to recent climate variability on the eastern Bering Sea shelf (W5-6307)

42

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
10:30

Coffee/Tea Break

11:00

Thomas A. Okey, Alvaro Montenegro, Veronica Lo, Sabine Jessen and Hussein Alidina
Overview of climate change effects in British Columbia marine ecosystems (W5-6306)

11:15

Nicholas K. Dulvy, Doug J. Beare, Julia L. Blanchard, Jan G. Hiddink, Simon Jennings,
Brian J. MacKenzie and Allison L. Perry
Rapid ecological change in the Northeast Atlantic climate change hotspot (W5-6416)

11:30

Nguyen Huu Ninh
Aquaculture and climate change in the coastal zone of Vietnam (W5-6341)

11:45

Kuo-Tien Lee and Hsueh-Jung Lu
Impact of climate change on coastal fishery resources of Taiwan (W5-6406)

12:00

Wang Hui
South China Sea

12:15

Lucy Scott and Warwick Sauer
Vulnerability to ocean warming in the Mozambique channel region (W5-6407)

12:30

Lunch

14:00

Yury I. Zuenko
The Japan Sea hotspot: Impacts of warming on bio-productivity and fisheries resources (W5-6404)

14:15

José H. Muelbert
Oceanography and biological production off South Brazil and Urugay (W5-6405)

14:30

George L. Hunt, Jr.
Hotspots in warming sub-arctic seas (W5-6037)

14:45

Group Discussion
What practical functions could/should a Global Hotspots Network perform?

15:30

Coffee/Tea Break

16:00

Group Discussion
Given these functions – How should we define a network?

16:30

Group Discussion
Options to establish and develop a network – Potential frameworks and funders

17:00

Group Discussion
Outline structure of synthesis paper, feedback and action items

17:30

Workshop ends

43

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Examining the linkages between physics and fish: How dozooplankton and krill data sets improve our understanding of
the impacts of climate change on fisheries?

W6
Co-Convenors:

William Peterson (Hatfield Marine Science Center, NMFS/NOAA, USA)
Kazuaki Tadokoro (Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, Japan)
This workshop will provide an opportunity for those keenly interested in “how data on zooplankton and krill canbe used to better understand and forecast the impacts of climate change on fisheries” to discuss the topic in an
informal workshop atmosphere. It is expected that the workshop will demonstrate explicitly how information
on zooplankton and krill contribute to better understanding of linkages between physics and fish. Furthermore,
the workshop will likely generate novel ideas that will add to the open discussions during the Symposium itself.
It is anticipated that the workshop will produce a white paper that summarizes ongoing research activities as wellas publications which link climate change to fisheries through changes in the food web in a variety of ecosystems– coastal, oceanic, upwelling, Arctic, and Antarctic. This will be a foundation document that shows where we are
now and where we want to be in the future. It would also produce a set of recommendations for how we might
move forward in our quest to better understand the mechanisms that link physics and fish through food chaininteractions. Such a white paper could be found acceptable for publication, after peer review, in the “Horizons”
section of the Journal of Plankton Research.

Sunday, April 25 (13:00-17:30)
13:00

William T. Peterson
Overview of some physical mechanisms that link physical forcing with zooplankton andfisheries response in the North Pacific

13:20

Ryan R. Rykaczewski
Propagation of ecological anomalies from the western to eastern North Pacific in a global earthsystem model (W6-6420)

13:40

William T. Peterson, Hongsheng Bi, Cheryl A. Morgan and Edmundo Casillas
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and marine food webs in the northern California Current:
Variations in source waters which feed the California Current may be the mechanism whichlinks climate change with ecosystem response (W6-6385)

14:00

Jay O. Peterson and William T. Peterson
Evidence of climate change in the northern California Current ecosystem and its impact on the
distribution and community composition of zooplankton (W6-6374)

14:20

C. Tracy Shaw, Leah R. Feinberg and William T. Peterson
Potential effects of climate change on the euphausiids Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa
spinifera off Newport, OR, USA (W6-6047)

14:40

Leah R. Feinberg and William T. Peterson
Impacts of wintertime upwelling and primary production on euphausiid phenology and the
productivity of upper trophic levels in the northern California Current (W6-6372)

15:00

Motomitsu Takahashi, David M. Checkley, Jr., Richard D. Brodeur and William T.
Peterson
Responses in growth rate of larval northern anchovy and Pacific sardine to anomalous upwellingin 2005 in the northern California Current (W6-6421)

15:30

Coffee/Tea Break44

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
15:50

Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yuji Okazaki
Overview of the zooplankton from viewpoint of food for fish resources in the western North
Pacific (W6-6418)

16:10

Mikiko Kuriyama, Hiroya Sugisaki, Yuichi Hirota, Tadafumi Ichikawa, Hiroshi Itoh andHiroshi Horikawa
Long-term variation in copepod community structure in the Kuroshio area, off southern Japan

16:30

Toru Kobari, Kazuaki Tadokoro, Hiroya Sugisaki and Hiroshi Ito
Response of large grazing copepods to climate-oceanographic changes in the western subarctic
Pacific Ocean (W6-6419)

16:50

Discussion

17:30

Workshop ends

45

Abstracts

Day 1 Plenary

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Day 1 Plenary
26 April, 8:55 (Plenary-6063)

The Earth’s climate system: Variability and change
Kevin E. Trenberth
NCAR, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA. E-mail: trenbert@ucar.edu

An introduction will be given of the Earth’s climate system. The roles of the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, andland will be described, and how energy (and heat) are moved around, stored, and released in different places andtimes to alter the regional and global climate. The role of humans will also be introduced with the finding that“global warming is unequivocal”. A review will be given of the forcings of the climate system and their changes
over time, and the response of the climate system as observed in variables including temperatures, precipitation,
drought, hurricanes, sea ice, snow cover, ice sheets, and sea level, and our ability to model them. The main
manifestations of change are through changes in extremes. The projections of future climate change will be
introduced along with the challenges for making climate predictions.

26 April, 9:25 (Plenary-6127)

Effects of climate change on marine ecosystems around Japan:
sustainable fisheries

Implications for

Akihiko Yatsu
Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, Taira-machi, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan
E-mail: yatsua@fra.affrc.go.jp

The Japanese Archipelago is surrounded by the Tsushima Current, Kuroshio and Oyashio, which are westernboundary currents in the North Pacific Ocean. These currents influence climate, ecosystems and fisheries in
the western North Pacific and its adjacent waters. This talk will present 1) observed and predicted physical andchemical changes in the North Pacific, 2) observed and potential effects of climate change on marine fishes andecosystems particularly around Japan, and 3) their implications for sustainable fisheries, including adaptation byhumans and marine species. In the high CO2 world, it is generally considered that ocean temperature will rise,currents will spin-up, acidification will occur, sea ice will decrease, area of oligotrophic gyres will increase, andseasonality of biological productivity will change. Potential effects on marine fish species include distribution,
productivity, ecological connectivity, biodiversity and phenology. For meaningful predictions of future of marine
ecosystems, we need to understand mechanisms of population dynamics of major species in relation to thechanges in ambient environment, including their rate of change and possible combined effects. Some examplesof observed changes and outlook of selected marine ecosystems around Japan will be also presented. Adaptation
by humans may include development of new technology and change in behaviors. For creation of adaptation
ways for marine species, it is important to preserve their resiliency by reducing various stress posed by humanactivities. The ecosystem approach to fisheries can be useful for this purpose.

49

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 9:50 (Plenary-6029)

Cost of adapting global marine fisheries to climate change
Ussif Rashid Sumaila1 and William L. Cheung212

Fisheries Research Economic Unit, Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada, V6T 1E4
E-mail: r.sumaila@fisheries.ubc.ca
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

We examine the cost of adapting fisheries to climate change by developing a number of scenarios of marine
climate change impacts on fisheries. Climate change affects fisheries through changes in potential catch due
to shifts in species’ range and primary productivity available to the species; and direct impacts on species’
productivity. Based on the spatial distribution of exploited fish species and available scientific information, we
examine potential marine climate change impacts on catch through acidification of the oceans from higher CO2
levels, loss of coral reefs from ocean warming, and changes in ocean biogeochemistry, such as oxygen levels.
Three indicators of potential cost of adapting fisheries to climate change were identified: (i) the potential loss ingross revenues or landed values due to climate change; (ii) the capital that will be required as an endowment toreplace the predicted loss in gross revenues; and (iii) the potential loss in household incomes from fisheries as aresult of climate change. Based on the projected changes in catches, we determine the potential losses in (i-iii).

26 April, 10:15 (Plenary-6413)

Climate change in perspective: The global drivers of change in fisheries
Edward H. Allison
Policy, Economics and Social Science, The WorldFish Center, Jalan Batu Maung, Bayan Lepas, Penang, 11960, Malaysia
E-mail: e.allison@cgiar.org

Human-induced global climate change is forecast to have increasing impacts on fishery systems. These changes
are taking place within a context of demographic and economic changes which are in turn reflected in changing
market systems for seafood products, the continuing rise of aquaculture as an alternative means to meet demandof fishery products, and evolving governance regimes to respond to signals of over-exploitation of wild fisheries.
The interactions between these ‘drivers of change’ are not well known enough to inform the use of predictive
systems models so that, in order to inform policy, we must consider them through exploration of scenarios. This
talk aims to illustrate how climate-change impact research at various levels can be combined with analysis of
the policy landscape to inform decision makers of the potential consequences of climate change for the futurecontribution of fisheries to economic and nutritional wellbeing.
Even within climate change, the main pathways of change are little known in terms of their relative magnitude.
The emphasis of most marine fishery climate-impact studies is on the effects of ocean warming on the distribution
and productivity of commercially-harvested fish species. For some fish production systems and their dependent
people, however, the largest impacts may be felt through increased storm severity and frequency and the resulting
damage to infrastructure, health and lives. For reef-dependent and shell-fish fisheries, coral bleaching and ocean
acidification may be the pathways through which climate change has the greatest impact on production ecology
and livelihoods. Broadening the scope of climate-change impacts research to include these pathways is both anurgent requirement and a scientific challenge.
Analyses of climate vulnerability are beginning to address this complexity by identifying areas, people and subsectors that are at greatest risk (or stand to benefit) from climate impact and other identified drivers of change. The
growing practical application of systems-perspectives on fisheries (e.g. the ecosystem-based approach, resilience
approach, value-chain analysis) offers a systematic framework with which to identify and address these issues.
In this talk, I will draw on recent work identifying key global drivers of change, conducting vulnerability analysis
to climate change at a global level, and more localized or issue-driven studies that explore key pathways of impact
in more detail. Examples will include a recent study on climate change impacts on trade competitiveness in small
developing states, and an on-going study to inform options for aquaculture development in Vietnam, based on
the analysis of the likely costs of various adaptation options. These cases illustrate how multi-scale coordinatedresearch efforts can inform decision making for sustainability in the face of change, despite irreducible uncertainty.

50

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1

Oral Presentations

26 April, 11:00 (P1-D1-6045)

P1-D1

Match/mismatch of fish population changes to climate events
James E. Overland1, Andrew Bakun2, Jürgen Alheit3, James Hurrell4, David Mackas5 and Arthur Miller6
1

2
3
4
5
6

NOAA/ Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle WA, 98115, USA
E-mail: James.E.Overland@noaa.gov
Pew Institute for Ocean Science, RSMAS, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami FL, 33149, USA
Institut für Ostseeforschung Warnemünde Biologie, Seestrasse 15, DE-18119, Warnemünde, Germany
NCAR / Climate and Global Dynamics Division, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder CO, 80307, USA
Fisheries and Oceans, Institute of Ocean Sciences, 9860 West Saanich Rd., Sidney, BC, V8L 4B2, Canada
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, SIO-UCSD 0224, La Jolla CA, 92093, USA

We suggest several types of ecosystem responses to climate change. Most climate variability is accounted for by
the combination of intermittent 1-2 year duration events, e.g. the cumulative effect of monthly weather anomalies
and the more organized ENSO, broad-band intrinsic variability operating at sub-decadal to longer timescales, andan emerging trend from greenhouse warming. While ocean processes such as heat storage and lags due to ocean
circulation provide some multi-year memory, basic understanding of the mechanisms of decadal variability islacking and forces the adoption of a long memory red noise conceptual model of low frequency climate variability.
Climate events with rapid shifts and major departures from mean conditions will occur, but their explicit timing
cannot be forecast. However, stochastic scenarios can be developed. The responses to climate shifts by biologicalsystems are diverse because intervening processes introduce amplifications, time lags, feedbacks, and nonlinearities, leading a variety of climate to ecosystem transfer functions. These can be expected to convert red
noise of the physical system to redder (lower frequency) noise of the biological response, but can also convert
climatic red noise to more abrupt and discontinuous biological shifts, transient climatic disturbance to a prolonged
ecosystem recovery, and perhaps transient disturbance to sustained ecosystem regimes. All of these ecosystem
response characteristics are likely to be active, leading to a mix of slow fluctuations, prolonged trends, and steplike changes in ecosystems and fish populations in response to climate change.

26 April, 11:15 (P1-D1-6315)

Change in the North Pacific mixed layer depth and its impact on primary production ina warming world
Chan Joo Jang and Sinjae Yoo
Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, 1270 Sa-dong, Ansan, Gyeonggi-do, 426-170, R Korea. E-mail: cjjang@kordi.re.kr

Projected changes in the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) over the North Pacific under global warming are
examined using climate models from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC AR4). The MLDs consistently decrease up to 50% by the end of 21st century in the Kuroshio
Extension (KE) in all the models examined. The MLD change in the western subploar region, on the other
hand, varies significantly depending on models. Stratification measured by the buoyancy frequency intensifies
especially within the main thermocline, supporting the idea that MLD under global warming will be decreased
mainly due to intensified stratification. The KE front shifts northward in response to the wind stress curl shift,which provides an additional factor in understanding the spatial pattern of the MLD changes. These results
suggest that changes in the wind stress and ocean circulation, in addition to the intensified surface stratification
due to direct radiative warming, contribute significantly to MLD changes in a warming world. Given thesechanges in the upper mixed layer, we also make projections on their impacts on primary production. We estimate
the change in primary production based on the change in the entrainment of nutrients by winter mixing at selected
locations in the North Pacific.

51

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 11:30 (P1-D1-6105)

Integrating eco-physiology and plankton dynamics into projected global changes inmarine biodiversity and maximum catch potential under climate change
William L. Cheung1, John P. Dunne2, Jorge Sarmiento3 and Daniel Pauly4
12
34School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. E-mail: William.cheung@uea.ac.uk
Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, NOAA, 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ, 08540-6649, USA
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Programme, Princeton University, 300 Forrestal Rd., Sayre Hall, Princeton, NJ, 08544, USA
Sea Around Us Project, Aquatic Ecosystems Research Laboratory, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada

Climate change is projected to strongly affect ocean conditions over the coming century and have large implications
for the goods and services provided by marine ecosystems. Previous global scale studies of living marine resources
have projected large potential change in marine biodiversity and redistribution of maximum catch potential acrossocean basins by 2050 under the SRES A1B climate change scenario. However, these studies did not account for
the effects of change in ocean biogeochemistry (e.g., ocean acidification, oxygen content) and plankton dynamics(e.g., planktonic community structure) which are recognized as important factors affecting the distribution andproductivity of fish and shellfish. Here, we develop a new class of the dynamic bioclimate envelope model thatallows us to include these factors in projecting future marine fish distributions and catch potential. Specifically,
based on growth and metabolic theories, we model the effects of change in ocean acidity, oxygen content andother physical conditions on the eco-physiology of the studied species. We also account for changes in the trophic
transfer from primary production to fish and shellfish as plankton community structure changes. This model thenpredicts changes in species’ life history, population dynamics, distribution and their potential catch. We apply
the model to a sample of exploited fish and shellfish using projections from the NOAA GFDL’s Earth System
Model. We examine the sensitivity of projected species distribution and catch potential to these biogeochemicaland ecosystem factors.

26 April, 11:45 (P1-D1-6089)

Possible change in distribution of seaweed, Sargassum horneri, in East Asia under A2scenario of global warming and its impact on fishes
Teruhisa Komatsu1, Masahiro Fukuda1, Atsuko Mikami1, Yutaka Kokubu1, Shizuha Mizuno1, Hideaki Tanoue1
and Michio Kawamiya2
1

2

Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakanoku, Tokyo 164-8639, Japan
E-mail: komatsu@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showacho,
Kanazawaku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan

Global warming effects on coastal marine ecosystems are already perceptible, especially in shallow watercommunities. The primary production of seaweed or seagrass beds in shallow waters is similar to that of tropicalrain forests. Moreover, they constitute some highly valuable spawning, nursery and feeding grounds for numerousorganisms in coastal waters. Geographical distributions of these plants greatly depend on water temperaturesin summer and winter because they are very sensitive to maximum and minimum temperatures. As a result,
it is expected that a water temperature increase will influence drastically the current distribution. To test thishypothesis, we referred to future water temperatures simulated by several organizations based on an A2 scenario
of global warming. We processed these data to monthly mean water temperature at 1 degree in the Pacific
Ocean. Using simulated surface water temperatures in February and August in 2050 and 2099, we examinedchanges in the spatial distribution of a specific seaweed species: Sargassum horneri. This species was selected
due to ecological importance: formation of large seaweed beds and wide thermal tolerance. The southern limitof S. horneri distribution is expected to keep moving northward such that it may broadly disappear from Honshu
Island, the Chinese coast, and Korean Peninsula by 2099. Since S. horneri forms drifting seaweeds in East China
Sea and these floating rafts constitute a key nursery ground for yellowtail and jack mackerel spawning there,
S. horneri disappearance is expected to damage significantly not only fishes related to the coastal waters but alsopelagic ones.

52

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 12:00 (P1-D1-6313)

Fisheries and ecosystems in a changing climate: A case study on the Tasmanian east coast
lobster fishery

1

2
3
4
5

6
7

Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 49, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
E-mail: stewart.frusher@utas.edu.au
School of Government, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 5, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 5, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
National Centre for Marine Conservation and Resource Sustainability, Australian Maritime College, Locked Bag 1370, Launceston,
Tasmania, 7248, Australia
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Box 305520, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
Wild Fisheries Management Branch, Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, P.O. Box 44, Hobart,
Tasmania, 7001, Australia

Climate change adaptation research requires inter-disciplinary studies to underpin the policy required to manage
both biophysical and human systems. In marine domains, climate induced changes in water temperature and ocean
currents can change the productivity of resources which in turn alters the spatio-temporal distribution of users(e.g. fishers) with social and economic flow-on effects to communities. This presentation is based on results froma recently completed Australian National Coastal Vulnerability Case Study on the rock lobster fishery off Eastern
Tasmania in south-eastern Australia. This fishery, located in a region predicted to be the fastest warming in thesouthern hemisphere, provides early warning signals for consideration in fisheries globally. Direct impacts relate
to forecast changes in growth and recruitment whereas indirect impacts, already in full swing, affect ecosystemservices through major changes in ecosystem resilience. Predicted effort re-distribution of the commercial fleet,
recreational fishing activity and maintenance of lobster biomass to counter-act an invasive poleward moving
urchin are all linked through a common climate impact. Climate change adaption can be viewed by managers
and industry as a future decision because incremental changes appear small. This study demonstrates the need toconsider climate related impacts in current fisheries management.

26 April, 12:15 (P1-D1-6036)

The oscillating control hypothesis: Reassessment in view of new information from theeastern Bering Sea
George L. Hunt, Jr.1, Lisa B. Eisner2, Edward W. Farley2, Jamal H. Moss2, Jeffrey M. Napp3 and Phyllis J. Stabeno4
1

2

3
4

School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, P.O. Box 355020, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
E-mail: geohunt@uw.edu
NOAA/NMFS/AFSC, Auke Bay Laboratories, Ted Stevens Marine Research Institute, 17109 Point Lena Loop Rd., Juneau, AK,
99801, USA
NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115-6349, USA
NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115-6349, USA

In the southeastern Bering Sea, recent years have provided opportunities to examine differences in ecosystem
responses to years with early ice retreat (“warm years”) and years with late ice retreat (“cold years”). In springs
with an early ice retreat and a bloom in warm water (>3°C), small neritic copepods, which are appropriate foodfor very young pollock, support early juvenile survival, but these small copepods are insufficient prey to allow
older age-0 pollock to lay down lipids in summer and fall. Thus in years with early ice retreat, there are highnumbers of age-0 pollock in summer with low energy reserves, and these fish are unlikely to survive their firstwinter. Additionally, in warm years with reduced availability of the large shelf copepod, Calanus marshallae,
and shelf euphausiids, predation on small pollock by larger pollock increases, further eroding year-class strength.
In years with late ice retreat, C. marshallae is favored, and although there may be fewer surviving age-0 pollock
at the end of spring, by summer, they have greater lipid reserves and a higher probability of surviving their firstwinter. Further, in cold years, both shelf euphausiids and C. marshallae are abundant in summer, and are targetedby larger pollock and salmon, thereby reducing predation on age-0 pollock. Thus, warm years with early ice
retreat are unlikely to yield strong year-classes of pollock, whereas years with late ice retreat may yield strong
year-classes if the biomass of larger pollock is not so great as to cause heavy losses through cannibalism.

53

P1-D1

Stewart Frusher1, Gretta Pecl1, Caleb Gardner1, Marcus Haward2, Alistair J. Hobday3, Sarah Jennings4, Melissa
Nursey-Bray5, André E. Punt6, Hilary Revill7 and Ingrid van Putten3

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 12:30 (P1-D1-6364)

The response of fish populations to climate change forecasted by integrating a sequenceof models over different life stages: Anchovy in the Bay of Biscay
Martin Huret, Pierre Petitgas and Caroline Struski
IFREMER, rue de l’Île d’Yeu, BP 20115, 44311 cdx 3, Nantes, France. Email: pierre.petitgas@ifremer.fr

Fish populations show complex life cycles with different life stages exploiting a variety of habitats. Larval dispersal
and fish movements spatially connect the habitats of the different life stages. Each life stage has particular habitat
requirements and the availability of these may change in space and time with climate change. The response to
climate change may be conflicting in the different life stages. Therefore, to predict the response of populations
to climate change, one needs to integrate over the entire life cycle. For that, different models of anchovy life
stages were used sequentially to evaluate the population potential response to climate change. We used theoutputs of a coupled hydro-biogeochemical model to access to the environmental forcing fields. A bioenergetic
model resolved individual fish growth and reproduction and determined the spawning time, duration and total
fecundity. A statistical habitat model determined the spawning locations depending on population abundance
and length structure. These models provided the initial conditions for running a larval individual-based model todetermine the drift and the survival of the larvae. Climate change scenarios were constructed by deviating major
forcing parameters of the hydro-biogeochemical model (wind, air temperature, short wave radiation, river runoff)from the current situation. These results of the scenarios were contrasted with the hindcast simulated series. In
scenarios with higher temperature, the spawning season was earlier, which impacted the larval drift and therefore
a potential shift of the population to the north, where habitats had become suitable.

26 April, 12:45 (P1-D1-6387)

State-space analysis of ocean and atmospheric data for use in forecasting ecologicalimpacts of climate change
Roy Mendelssohn (presented by Frank Shwing)
NOAA-Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory, Pacific Grove, CA, 93950, USA
E-mail: roy.mendelssohn@noaa.gov

An important consideration in examining climate effects on marine resources is to properly separate long-termchanges in the mean from changes in the seasonality and from changes due to stationary dynamics, to properly
identify change points, if any, and to develop indices that can reflect these properties. While stationary dynamics
are important in year-to-year variability, they do not reflect changing dynamics due to climate change. State-spacedecompositions combined with subspace identification methods provide the tools to examine these questions. I
will review over a decade of results using these methods, examining surface and subsurface temperatures, pressure
centers and major climate indices. While the emphasis will be on the Pacific Ocean, and comparing changes inthe different Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) of the Pacific, the results will be put into a global context. These
results present a different picture of the dynamics of the Pacific Ocean, and perhaps better explain at least part ofthe variability seen in living marine resources in the region.

54

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 14:30 (P1-D1-6292)

Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish: Environmental thresholds and climatedriven changes in populations
Myron A. Peck1, Patricia Reglero2, Motomitsu Takahashi3 and Ignacio A. Catalán42
3
4Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, D-Hamburg, 22767, Germany
E-mail: myron.peck@uni-hamburg.de
Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centre Oceanogràphic de les Balears, Moll de Ponent s/n, 07015, Palma, Spain
Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, 1551-8 Taira-machi, Nagasaki-shi, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan
Instituto Mediterraneo de Estudios Avanzados (IMEDEA, UIB/CSIC), c/Miquel Marques 21, 07190, Esporles, Illes Balears, Spain

P1-D1

1

Due to their relatively short life spans, high rates of growth and reproduction and trophic position, small
pelagic fish are excellent bio-indicators of climate variability and change. In an attempt to identify stagespecific, ecophysiological constraints underpinning climate-driven changes in distribution and abundance, we
reviewed available information on the impacts of key environmental factors on the vital rates of five small
pelagic (Clupeiform) fish with emphasis on five species inhabiting Northwest Pacific or Northeast Atlantic andMediterranean waters. The review was organized using a matrix of environmental (extrinsic) factors that included
both abiotic (e.g., temperature, salinity, light) and biotic (prey abundance/concentration and preferences) factors.
Vital rates included: 1) adult spawning, 2) survival and development of endogenously feeding life stages (eggs,
yolk sac larvae), and 3) feeding and growth of young-of-the-year (YOY) fish (larvae, post-larvae and juveniles).
Gaps in basic knowledge were identified, particularly regarding growth bioenergetics of later life stages primarily
due to challenges of captive rearing. Interspecific differences in the impact of temperature on vital rates partly
explain changes in distribution and/or productivity. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile
period appears to be one of the most important factors responsible for density-dependent fluctuations observedin Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic populations. We 1) discuss processes causing observed changes
in stocks, 2) summarize existing research gaps for each life stage, and 3) recommend future ecophysiologicalstudies most needed to develop robust, physiologically-based, biophysical models projecting climate impacts on
the distribution and productivity of small pelagic fish species.

26 April, 14:45 (P1-D1-6141)

Performance of multiple approaches in modelling small pelagic fish distribution:
Predictive ability in the light of climate change
Dawit Yemane, Nandipha M. Twatwa and Janet C. Coetzee
Marine and Coastal Management, Department of Environmental Affairs, Rogge Bay 8012, Private Bag X2, Cape Town, South Africa
E-mail: dawityemane@gmail.com; DYemane@deat.gov.za

Multiple bioclimatic models have been used to model distribution patterns and abundance of several biota. Thesemodels vary in their complexity and assumptions they require of the data. A large number come from terrestrial
environment. In the marine environment the use of such approach are generally limited to a single method andcomprehensive analysis of the performance of multiple bioclimatic models are scant. This study attempts toaddress model selection issue using South African small pelagic fish species as a case study. This study was
conducted based on data on the three major small pelagic fish species (Anchovy Engraulis capensis, Sardine
Sardinops sagx, and Redeye Etrumeus whiteheadi). For the purpose of this study we selected six of the mostcommonly used bioclimatic modelling tools (GAM, GLM, MARS, CART, BRT, and ANN). The result showssome similarity in predictive performance between some of the models whereas differences between others.
This modelling is expected to contribute towards the knowledge in the selection among bioclimatic models in
predicting future changes in the distribution and abundance of important fish species.

55

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 15:00 (P1-D1-6308)

Climate change and small pelagic fish: A review and recommendations
Pierre Fréon1, David M. Checkley, Jr.2 and Francisco E. Werner3
1

2
3

Unité EME R212, CRHMT, Centre de Recherche Halieutique Méditerranéenne et Tropicale, IRD - IFREMER and Université
Montpellier II, Avenue Jean Monnet, BP 171, 34203 Sète Cedex, France. E-mail: pfreon@ird.fr
2220 Sverdrup Hall, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 8615 Kennel Way, La Jolla, CA, 92037, USA
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, 71 Dudley Rd., Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA

The Small Pelagic Fish and Climate Change (SPACC) program facilitated research on the dynamics of populationsof small pelagic fish (SPF). These populations exhibit large variations in size, extent, and production on the scaleof decades. Collectively, SPF can occupy a central but questioned role in the food web where they occur, often
described as a wasp-waist ecosystem, with humans increasingly playing an integral part of those ecosystems.
Variability of SPF populations is believed due primarily to variations in climate and fishing, but mechanisms ofthese relations remain unknown in most cases. It is also uncertain whether these ecosystems alternate between
states, and whether inherent variability may limit our ability to predict future states. Here, we review scenarios ofclimate change and physical oceanography. Three predicted avenues of ecological change are discussed: changes
in productivity and composition of lower trophic levels; distributional changes of marine organisms; and changes
in circulation and their effects on recruitment. Research gaps are identified with attention to current limitationsof available data and models. SPACC has benefited from the global comparison of populations and regions with
SPF. Although each stock and region is unique, common properties exist. Among these are the recognition of
the influence of varying climate on populations, consistency within and differences between populations, thepivotal role in wasp-waist ecosystems, the global nature of interactions involving SPF, and the certainty of futurechange in climate and demand for SPF. To facilitate future research on climate change and SPF, we recommend
an international program like SPACC.

26 April, 15:15 (P1-D1-6349)

Modeling secondary production in the Norwegian Sea with a fully coupled physicalprimary-secondary production model system
Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo, Geir Huse, Morten D. Skogen and Einar Svendsen
Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870, Nordnes, Bergen, 5817, Norway. E-mail: Solfrid.Hjollo@imr.no

The copepod Calanus finmarchicus is the dominant species of the mesoplankton in the Norwegian Sea, andconstitutes an important link between the phytoplankton to the higher trophic levels in the Norwegian Sea foodchain. An individual-based model for C. finmarchicus, based on superindividuals and evolving traits for behavior,stages, etc., are two-way coupled to a physical-biological model system. One year of modeled C. finmarchicus
spatial distribution, production and biomass are compared to point-wise and integrated observations, and found torepresent these satisfactory. Sensitivity tests of model setup (i.e. no of superindividuals, initial values of traits forbehavior and food preferences) show that the modeling system is robust and provides a valuable tool for studiesof ecosystem responses to causative forces such as fish predation or climate change. From a longer simulation,interannaul variability and regional differences in biomass and production are studied.

56

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 15:30 (P1-D1-6266)

Potential impact of climate change on Pacific sauryShin-ichi Ito1, Takeshi Okunishi2, Michio J. Kishi3,4 and Muyin Wang5
1

3
4
5

P1-D1

2

Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan
E-mail: goito@affrc.go.jp
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, FRA, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-8648, Japan
Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0813, Japan
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSEC, Yokohama, Kanazawa, 236-0001, Japan
Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA

An ecosystem based bioenergetics model NEMURO.FISH (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding
Regional Oceanography). For Including Saury and Herring was developed and successfully reproduced realistic
growth of Pacific saruy with parameters mainly determined based on field observations. The model is composedof three ocean domain boxes and saury is assumed to migrate between those boxes. The model is very simple
but it also reasonably captured the growth difference between autumn, winter, and spring-spawned cohorts. Thismodel was used to investigate responses of Pacific saury to global warming using the sea surface temperature(SST) of current climatology and a global warming condition generated by MIROC3.2 coupled atmosphericocean model output with A2 scenario. The saury showed decrease in both wet weight and body length underglobal warming because of less prey plankton density. The migration pattern was modified by increased SST andreduced size of saury. Higher SST in the mixed water region under global warming prevented southern migrationof saury in the first winter and delayed it in the second winter. As a result, the egg production was enhanced byhigher availability of prey zooplankton in the mixed water region. The result may depend highly on the magnitudeof SST increase. We will compare the results using several climate model outputs at the presentation.

26 April, 15:45 (P1-D1-6106)

Development of a climate-to-fish-to-fishers model: Proof-of-principle using long-term
population dynamics of anchovies and sardines in the California Current
Kenneth A. Rose1, Enrique N. Curchitser2, Kate Hedström3, Jerome Fiechter4, Miguel Bernal2, Shin-ichi Ito5,
Salvador Lluch-Cota6, Bernard A. Megrey7, Christopher A. Edwards4, David M. Checkley, Jr.8, Alec MacCall9,
Tony Koslow10, Sam McClatchie9, Kenneth L. Denman11 and Francisco E. Werner2
1

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA
Email: karose@lsu.edu
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, 71 Dudley Rd., Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA
Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, 909 Koyukuk Dr., Suite 105, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
Ocean Sciences Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064, USA
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho Shiogama-city, Miyagi, 985-0001, JapanCIBNOR, Mar Bermejo # 195 Col. Playa Palo de Santa Rita, La Paz, B.C.S., 23090, Mexico
Alaska Fisheries Science Center-NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
Scripps Institute of Oceanography, UC San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr., La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
NOAA Fisheries Service, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 8604 La Jolla Shores Dr., La Jolla, CA, 92037-1508, USA
Scripps Institute of Oceanography, CalCOFI, 9500 Gilman Dr., La Jolla, CA, 92093, USA
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; DFO, Institute of Ocean Sciences, 9860 West Saanich Rd., Sidney, BC,
V8L 4B2, Canada

An ecosystem approach to understanding large-scale patterns in exploited fisheries systems caused by both climatechange and human activity increasingly relies on the use of numerical models. In the past, physical, lower, andhigher trophic level models were developed, tested, and implemented independently of each other. Recently,
advances in physics and biology have made possible end-to-end (climate-to-fish-to-fishers) ecosystem models,
including humans as a dynamical component. We present our progress to date on the development of an end-toend modeling framework within the widely-used ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) circulation model.
The NEMURO Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton (NPZ) submodel provides the lower trophic level dynamics,
and a multi-species, individual-based, full life cycle submodel simulates fish population and community dynamics,
including fishing fleets as one of the predator species. We describe our preliminary version of the modelingframework, which focuses on anchovies and sardines in the California Current system. Using a relatively coarse
30-km resolution ROMS model, we demonstrate how the various submodels can be solved simultaneously for a
multi-decadal historical simulation (1958-2006) and present preliminary model results on key physical features(e.g., interannual variation in upwelling), lower trophic dynamics (e.g., zooplankton community composition
57

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
and productivity), and anchovy and sardine growth, spawning, mortality, and movement patterns. While many
biological and computational challenges remain, we believe a dedicated modeling effort, developed in concert
with retrospective analyses and existing field programs, will lead to management-ready end-to-end forecasting
tools in the future.

26 April, 16:20 (P1-D1-6052), Invited

Uncertainties about climatic change and Pacific salmon:
communication, and risk management

Risk assessment, risk

Randall M. Peterman
School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada. E-mail: peterman@sfu.ca

Because of the numerous uncertainties about forecasting effects of climatic change on Pacific salmon populations,the methods of risk assessment, risk communication, and risk management are useful. I will discuss these fields
in the context of five major sources of uncertainty: natural variability, observation error, structural complexity,
outcome uncertainty (i.e., implementation uncertainty), and inadequate communication among scientists, decision
makers, and stakeholders. Natural variability in both salmon populations and their environmental drivers occurs
at both short and long periods and at various spatial scales. Efforts to use outputs from climate models should
therefore link environmental indicators to salmon variables at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. However,past data contain observation errors, making it difficult to discern true underlying relationships. Nevertheless, thisproblem can be at least partially dealt with by (1) using state-space or errors-in-variables models that explicitly
estimate parameters for each of natural variation and observation error, and (2) fitting hierarchical models to reflectspatial covariation among nearby populations arising from shared environmental drivers. In the last decade,structural uncertainty about relationships among components of aquatic systems has been recognized as a larger
source of uncertainty than natural variation and observation error. A popular method of dealing with structural
uncertainty is to run stochastic simulation models across hundreds of scenarios (i.e., assumed relationships) using
closed-loop simulations (management strategy evaluations). Finally, this paper will describe some methods for
dealing with communication about uncertainty and risk among scientists, decision makers, and stakeholders, a
topic that has had too little research.

26 April, 16:45 (P1-D1-6301)

Biological ensemble modelling of climate impacts – Improving fisheries science andmanagement by accounting for uncertainty
Anna Gardmark1, Stefan Neuenfeldt2, Martin Lindegren2, Thorsten Blenckner3, Eero Aro4, Outi Heikinheimo4,
Bärbel Müller-Karulis5, Susa Niiranen3, Maciej Tomczak2, Anieke van Leeuwen6, Anders Wikström7 and ChristianMöllmann8
1

2
3
4
5
6
7
8

Institute of Coastal Research, Swedish Board of Fisheries, P.O. Box 109, Öregrund, SE-742 41, Sweden
E-mail: anna.gardmark@fiskeriverket.se
National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Dept. of Marine Fisheries, Charlottenlund Slot, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark
Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm Resilience Center, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden
Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Institute P.O. Box 2, Viikinkaari 4, Helsinki, FIN-00791, Finland
Latvian Institute of Aquatic Ecology, 8 Daugavgrivas, Riga, LV-1048, Latvia
Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, Kruislaan 320, Amsterdam, 1098 SM, The Netherlands
Department of Theoretical Ecology, Ecology Bldg., Lund University, Lund, SE-22362, Sweden
Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, D-2276, Germany

Predicting fish stock responses to climate change fundamentally relies on mathematical models of population
dynamics. The ecosystem-based approach to fisheries management further requires that management accounts
for interactions among species and other ecosystem processes. Thus, diversity and complexity of models used
for predicting fish stock responses to management have increased. Yet, the structural uncertainty associated withalternative models is rarely accounted for. Here we present the biological ensemble modelling approach (BEMA)to deal with such structural uncertainty. We further illustrate how the technique can be used to disentangle
structural uncertainty from the statistical uncertainty of climate predictions. Four single-species models, four
multi-species models and one food-web model were used to predict the response of Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus
morhua callarias) to five alternative fisheries management scenarios and two climate change scenarios, assuming
58

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
no climate change or a warmer and less saline future Baltic Sea. Although predictions differed also qualitatively
between the models, the BEMA provided a means to (i) present the full set of projected stock responses, (ii)assess whether these imply different conclusions on management, and (iii) draw general conclusions valid acrossall models used. Based on this example we will discuss benefits and limitations of the BEMA in furthering bothfisheries management and fisheries science.

P1-D1

26 April, 17:00 (P1-D1-6214)

Future recruitment of Bering Sea walleye pollock. Part I: Retrospective patterns anduncertainty
Franz J. Mueter1, Nicholas A. Bond2, Anne B. Hollowed3, Carol Ladd2 and Enrique N. Curchitser4
1
2
3

4

School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau, AK, 99801, USA. E-mail: fmueter@alaska.edu
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand
Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
Institute of Marine and Coastal Science, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA

One of the key uncertainties in predicting the response of fish populations to future climate variability is uncertainty
about future reproductive success. We illustrate a possible approach to providing plausible recruitment projections
and their associated uncertainty under different climate scenarios using walleye pollock in the eastern Bering Sea
as an example. First, we build on hypothesized mechanisms controlling pollock recruitment in the eastern Bering
Sea to derive statistical relationships linking regional oceanographic conditions to pollock recruitment. Second,
we use a statistical downscaling approach to forecast these regional oceanographic conditions from IPCC model
simulations. Third, we use statistical models developed in the first step to forecast time series of future recruitmentof walleye pollock. Full uncertainty in the forecasted time series will be quantified by combining prediction
uncertainties from the statistical models with uncertainty in the IPCC model simulations. This talk will focus on
the first step to better understand and quantify the effects of past climate variability on observed recruitment. In
particular, we will re-examine the role of the timing of the spring bloom, the strength of summer stratification, andcannibalism in determining pollock recruitment. Because these oceanographic variables have only been measured
in recent years we compare three approaches to obtaining hindcasts of bloom timing and stratification for predicting
recruitment using (1) statistical relationships between climate variables and oceanographic variables, (2) output
from a 1-D mixing model, and (3) output from a regional ocean circulation model. Results from this part of thestudy will be used in a companion paper by Bond et al. to forecast pollock recruitment.

26 April, 17:15 (P1-D1-6068)

Future recruitment of Bering Sea walleye pollock. Part II: Ranges in key environmental
parameters from global climate model forecasts
Nicholas A. Bond1, Franz J. Mueter2, Anne B. Hollowed3, Carol Ladd3 and Muyin Wang1
1

2
3

Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
E-mail: nicholas.bond@noaa.gov
School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau, AK, 99801, USA.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA

The paper of Mueter et al. for this session uses retrospective data to quantify how the recruitment of walleye pollock
in the Bering Sea relates to environmental parameters. Those relationships are used here to make projections ofpollock recruitment through the first half of the 21st century. The key environmental parameters for Bering Sea
pollock, including the timing of the spring bloom and the magnitude of the water column stratification in summer,are derived from large-scale elements of the climate system using empirical methods. For the 21st century
projections, the climate-scale forcing is specified with output from the global model simulations carried out for
the 4th Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Our procedure has
three sources of errors and uncertainties: (1) in the relationships between recruitment and environmental indices,(2) in the linkages between these indices and the elements of the climate forcing that are directly predicted by
IPCC-class models, and (3) in the range of the plausible outcomes for the climate system itself. The magnitudes

59

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheriesof each of these sources are compared in terms of their contribution to the overall error in estimating recruitment.
Our study it designed to complement the vertically-integrated modeling effort being carried out under the auspicesof the BEST/BSIERP program.

26 April, 17:30 (P1-D1-6183)

Numerical simulations of spatio-temporal distribution of juvenile walleye pollock around
Hidaka Bay
Hiroshi Yoshinari, Tomonori Azumaya, Tetsuichiro Funamoto, Akira Kusaka, Orio Yamamura and Akira
Nishimura
Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 116 Katsurakoi, Kushiro, Hokkaido, 085-0802, Japan
E-mail: hyy@affrc.go.jp

Hidaka Bay, situated along the southwestern coast of Hokkaido, is an important spawning ground of theJapan Pacific population (JPP) of walleye pollock. Previous studies have revealed that: 1) juvenile pollock
are concentrated in Funka Bay, western side of Hidaka Bay, in April and 2) their distribution are apparently
related to warmer water (i.e., T10 > 3.5°C). To elucidate the mechanism of intake and maintenance of juvenile
pollock in Funka Bay, we performed a numerical simulation. In the simulation, particles were initially distributed
uniformly in the surface layer of Funka Bay, then a time-inverse integration from April 26 to January 25 was
executed to determine the sites where the juveniles originated from using ROMS (Regional Ocean Model System)
climatological run. The particles reached the south side of the entrance of Funka Bay, then turned around thenorthward and flowed eastward along the coastline of Hidaka Bay, which is consistent with the empirically known
spawning ground. Surprisingly, considerable fractions of particles (30 % of the total) were transported beyond
Cape Erimo by January 25, the presumed mean spawning day, implying some possibility that the spawning area of
the JPP extends farther eastward than has been supposed. In the presentation, the effects of the wind over Hidaka
Bay on the distribution of juvenile walleye pollock in Funka Bay will also be mentioned.

26 April, 17:45 (P1-D1-6396)

Modeling recruitment responses of striped marlin (Tetrapturus audax) and swordfish(Xiphias gladius) to environmental variability in the North Pacific
Jon Brodziak, Kevin Piner and Dean Courtney
NOAA Fisheries, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, 2570 Dole St., Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA. E-mail: Jon.Brodziak@NOAA.gov

We investigated alternative models to predict recruitment strength of North Pacific striped marlin and swordfish.
Our goal was to identify key environmental variables needed to model recruitment responses. This represented one
step in a general framework for modeling fish stock responses to future climate change. Estimates of recruitment
and spawning biomass were gathered from recent age-structured assessments using the Stock Synthesis model.
Indices of early life history survival ratios for striped marlin and swordfish, measured by the ratio of recruitment
to spawning biomass (RS), were compared with two indices of climate variability, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), to investigate their potential influence on recruitment success.
Regression models to predict log-transformed RS values from PDO and SOI indices during spawning season werefit. AIC values indicated that the PDO was the best predictor of RS for striped marlin while for swordfish, SOI
was the best predictor. For comparison, separate regression analyses were conducted using RS values adjusted
for stock-recruitment steepness. Both results were used to parameterize alternative models of recruitment strength
for making stock projections under current fishery conditions with model selection uncertainty. Overall, stripedmarlin appeared less resilient than swordfish to fishing pressure accounting for environmental forcing.

60

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 18:00 (P1-D1-6215)

Integrating data, fieldwork, and models into an ecosystem-level forecasting synthesis:
The modeling challenge of the Bering Ecosystem Study/Bering Sea Integrated Research
Program (BEST-BSIERP)

1

2

3
4
5

Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NMFS, NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115-0070, USA
E-mail: Kerim.Aydin@noaa.gov
Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, NOAA/PMEL,
Seattle, WA, 98195-4925, USA. E-mail: ivonne@u.washington.edu
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd., New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA
International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 930 Koyukuk Dr., Fairbanks, AK, 99775-7340, USA
Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, NOAA/PMEL,
Seattle, WA, 98115, USA

The Bering Ecosystem Study/Bering Sea Integrated Research Program (BEST-BSIERP, http://bsierp.nprb.org/
index.htm) is a five-year program of over 90 principal investigators, jointly sponsored by the National Science
Foundation (NSF) and the North Pacific Research Board (NPRB) to provide a synthesis of key hypotheses thatgovern the effects of climate on the Bering Sea ecosystem, and provide a set of tools for forecasting long-term
production and distribution of marine resources (e.g. plankton, fish, birds, and mammals). BSIERP is unique in its
approach to integrating data, fieldwork with modeling efforts throughout the project. First, scoping models (e.g.
food web, bioenergetics, and nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton models) guided project design, for example byinvestigating the link between ice and plankton or between fish growth and prey variation. Second, the models
are being developed concurrently with (rather than after) the field program, to guide sampling priorities andhelp interpret observations. Third, model components are modular, so that “alternate modules” (e.g. behavioral
models, or models with differing resolutions ranging from a complex vertically-integrated end-to-end model with10km resolution to broad correlative models) may be substituted to determine the most appropriate toolbox for
forecasting. Here, we show results of model predictions related to recent, present, and immediately future field
conditions combined with data assimilation and validation. We focus on predictability: using the wide range ofresources at our disposal today, what’s possible, what’s missing, what predictions are robust, and what surprises
we might have in store, as we move to attempting to forecast longer-term (20-50 year) outlooks for marine
ecosystems.

26 April, 18:15 (P1-D1-6275)

Potential climate change impacts on fish production from 20 large marine ecosystems
around the world
Julia L. Blanchard1, Nicholas K. Dulvy2, Robert Holmes3, Manuel Barange3 and Simon Jennings4
1

2
3
4

Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Rd., Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK
E-mail: j.blanchard@imperial.ac.uk
Biological Sciences, 8888 University Dr., Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
Plymouth Marine Laboratory Prospect Place Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Sciences, Pakefield Rd., Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, UK

In the absence of detailed knowledge on how fish species will respond to climate change, simple macroecologicalapproaches can be usefully employed to investigate the potential impacts on production of marine ecosystems
across a body size range typically encompassing mesozooplankton and fish larvae up to the largest predatory fishes.
Statistical models can be used to establish relationships between observed primary production and fishery yields.
Simple theory based on the transfer of energy from smaller to larger organisms and temperature dependence on
metabolic rates can be used to predict the static abundance-body size distribution from primary productivity andtemperature. Dynamic size spectrum models allow for time-dependent processes to be taken into account andtesting effects of different fishing scenarios on the size spectrum.

61

P1-D1

Kerim Aydin1, Nicholas A. Bond2, Enrique N. Curchitser3, Georgina A. Gibson4, Kate Hedström4, Albert J.
Hermann5 and Ivonne Ortiz2

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, climate-mediated changes in primary productivity andtemperature were modelled for 20 large-marine ecosystems around the world under past and far-future climatechange scenarios. This information was used to force a static size-based scaling model and a dynamic size
spectrum model to estimate the potential abundance-size distributions of marine predators, across size ranges
that are typically dominated by fish and squid. The dynamic size spectrum model is then used to investigate theeffects of different size-selective fishing strategies on potential yield of the overall system. We compare potential
production estimates from both size-based models in the absence of exploitation to present day observed catchesof small pelagic, demersal and large pelagic fishes and discuss the potential implications for fisheries in the future.

62

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1 Posters
P1-D1-5977

P1-D1

The ramification of climate change on aquaculture production in Cameroon
Nkemasong Samuel Acha and Thomas Tazoche Njang
Department of Fisheries, Action Centre for Rural Community Development (ACERCD-Cameroon), P.O. Box 144, Buea, South West
Region, 237, R of Cameroon. E-mail: acercd98@yahoo.com

The world’s dependence on the capture fisheries and aquaculture sector is threatened not only by inadequate
management of these aquatic resources but also on factors external to the sector such as climatic change. Fishers
and fish farmers in coastal and inland areas are particularly vulnerable to the direct and indirect impacts ofclimate change. Since the largest proportion of world aquaculture production is concentrated in tropical and subtropical climatic regions, and geographically in the sub-Saharan Africa, impacts from climate change are likely
to have greater consequences there, with direct impacts on global food fish supply. However, it is predicted that
global warming and the consequent increase in water temperature could impact significantly and negatively on
aquaculture in temperate climatic zones, because such increases could exceed the optimal temperature rangeof cultured organisms, as opposed to potential positive impacts through enhanced growth and production intropical and sub-tropical zones. The paper will analyze the negative impact of climate change on the aquaculture
production in Cameroon, such as the reduction of ecosystem activities. It will dwell in detail on the various
climatic changes and how it has affected aquaculture production. The paper will also centre on the outcome ofthese effects on the socio-economic activities of the people with the lapses in the production of products. This
also includes effects on people’s health and poverty conditions. The paper will give the alternative ways of how
to solve this nightmare.

P1-D1-6024

A study of climate impacts on anchovy population dynamics in the Yellow Sea by
individual-based model
Hao Wei1, Yuheng Wang2, Liang Zhao2 and Michio J. Kishi3
12
3

Tianjin University of Science and Technology, College of Marine Science and Engineering, 29, 13th Ave., TEDA, Tianjin, 300457,
PR China. Email: weihao@ouc.edu.cn
Physical Oceanography Lab, Ocean University of China, 238 Songling Rd., Qingdao, 266100, PR China
Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5 Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0810, JapanTo study the climate impact on the anchovy recruitment and production, an individual-based model (IBM) of
anchovy was built in the Yellow Sea (YS), coupled with hydrodynamic model POM and coastal lower trophic
level ecosystem model NEMURO. Seasonal variation of 3D residual current, water temperature, salinity,
turbulent diffusion were simulated by POM using climate forcing to drive transport of nutrients, phytoplankton,
zooplankton, eggs and larvae fish of anchovy. Life history and growing of an individual anchovy were consideredwhen it moved between overwinter, spawning and nursering field. Survival fitness theory related to temperatureand food was used to describe the swimming behavior of anchovy. Swimming speed relate to the fork length
while the swim direction is determined by the gradients of fitness. The growth, reproduction and migration ofanchovy were simulated. Numerical experiments were deployed forcing by variation of monsoon, Yellow Sea
Warm Current (YSWC) and water temperature according to the climate trends in the YS. The results showthat the time and distribution of spring bloom will change with wind speed, thus affect the match/mismatch
relationship of anchovy larvae and food (zooplanktons) and influence the recruitment of anchovy. Stronger
YSWC induced by stronger winter monsoon will cause a northward movement of anchovy wintering ground.
Higher water temperature not only affects the migration of anchovy but also changes its population structure.
East Asia monsoon is the major climate factor for anchovy population dynamics in the YS besides over-fishing.

63

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1-6074 (Cancelled)

Factors determining dynamics of highly variable fish stocks and possibilities of its longrange forecasting (taking Northeast Arctic cod as an example)
Andrei S. Krovnin, Boris Kotenev, Mikhail Bondarenko and Anatoly Morozov
Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO), 17 Verkhnyaya Krasnoselskaya, Moscow, 107140, Russia
E-mail: akrovnin@vniro.ru

The relationships between long-term variations in abundance of various commercial fish stocks and climatic
factors only allow assessment of the general tendencies in the population state at decadal and interdecadal timescales. However, the problem of long-range yearly forecasts of stock dynamics has not been solved. In thispaper the possibilities of such forecasts, based on empirical and statistical relationships between climatic andbiological characteristics, are considered using the example of Northeast Arctic cod. The method suggested theclustering ranking of survival indices (SI), by defining three types of survival conditions: favorable, moderate,
and unfavorable. The year-class strength is determined mainly by three factors: spawning stock biomass, windconditions during the winter-spring period of spawning, and weighted annual water heat content in the spawningand larval development area. Under each type of survival condition the relative role of each factor in determining
recruitment abundance differs. The statistical relationship between SI and water heat content allows quantitative
estimations of survival conditions 1-2 years in advance. In turn, using the significant correlation between the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and temperature conditions with lag of 17 years (NAO index leads temperature),
it is possible to make quantitative forecast of thermal regime, identify the type of survival conditions, and, finally,
develop probabilistic forecasts of recruitment 10 years or more in advance.

P1-D1-6075 (Cancelled)

The climatic causes of recent rise of Asian salmon catches and its prospects
Andrei S. Krovnin, Nataliya Klovach and George Moury
Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (VNIRO), 17 Verkhnyaya Krasnoselskaya, Moscow 107140, Russia
E-mail: akrovnin@vniro.ru

The growth of the world catch of Pacific salmons started after the climatic regime shift of 1977-1978, and in 2007
it reached 1.03 million t. Under the general increase in abundance of Pacific salmon species during the last years,
only pink and chum salmons demonstrate a steady tendency toward catch growth. Recently, the abundance of
Asian pink salmon reached record values, providing up to 70-80% of total Russian salmon catches in even andodd years, respectively. In this paper, the climatic causes of this recent increase in abundance of Asian salmons
are analyzed. The shift of climatic regime in 1977-1978 accompanied with growth of American salmon stocks
practically did not affect Asian stocks. Increase in the Asian salmon abundance started only after 1988 andwas the most pronounced in 2005-2009. The analysis of long-term climatic data revealed the regime shift inwintering area of Asian pink and chum salmons at that time, with formation of favorable conditions for theirwinter survival. Thus, for example, according to the data from counting surveys conducted by SakhNIRO, the2009 survival of East Sakhalin pink salmon stock in winter was 63.4%, a record. The analysis of the climatic
situation developing in the northern North Pacific during the last years produces some evidence of a possible end
to the regime favorable for the high survival of Asian salmon stocks in the next 2-3 years. Therefore, the rather
sharp decrease in abundance and catches of Asian salmons can be expected.

64Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1-6076

The North-Atlantic Oscillation and biotical cycles within the Azores region
Tatyana V. Belonenko and Aleksey V. Koldunov

Wavelet analysis is applied to satellite estimates of primary production at 42 points across the Azores region(33-43°N, 22-32°W), at 8-day time resolution for a period 4 July 2002 to 29 August 2007. The largest variance
was found at time scales of ½, 1, 2, and 4 years found. The existence of an Azorean biological front at 37°N
is reflected in the ½-year isopleths and, in turn, they themselves provide information on the spatial-temporalvariability of the front. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is taken as an indicator of the atmosphere
forcing that determines biological environment variability. A stable relation is found between the primary
production variability and the NAO around the Azores. Wavelet analysis of monthly NAO index values for 19502008 years reveals multi-scale structure of the NAO variability, as well the presence of ½-, 1-, 2-, and 4-year
cycles during the time span 2002-2007 years. Primary production variability at the 6 sites of the Azores region
were compared with each other, as well with the respective NAO index cycles. At any time scale, the intensity ofvariability is strongest in the north of the region.
Correlation between primary production biotical cycles and NAO at different points of the region was estimated.
For ½-year cycles, the primary production/NAO relationship is rather complicated, evidencing that, along witheffects of NAO, some dynamical factors may play a role, including water advection and mixing. Cross-correlation
coefficients have been calculated for all cycles of NAO and primary production.

P1-D1-6102

Global warming effects on a Mediterranean ecosystem: A trophic modeling approach on
the Bonifacio Straits Natural Reserve (Corsica, France)
Camille Albouy1, François Le Loc’h2, Jean M. Culioli3 and David Mouillot1
1

2
3

Université Montpellier II Place, Eugéne Bataillon Laboratoire, ECOLAG UMR, 5119 34090, Montpellier, France
E-mail: albouycamille@gmail.com
UMR EME, IRD, Avenue Jean Monnet, BP 17, Centre de Recherche Halieuthique Méditerranéenne et Tropicale, Sète, 34203, France
O.E.F Base Technique et Scientifique de la Rondinara, BP 507, Bonifacio, 20169, France

Human activities have resulted in unprecedented threats on coastal marine ecosystems including direct or indirect
effects. Indeed, major changes in exploited biological assemblages and ultimately biodiversity loss may disrupt
ecosystem functioning and then alter the sustainability of goods and services provided by marine ecosystems tohumanity. Global change may be considered as an important modification source for abiotic parameters such astemperature but may also provoke drastic shifts in species assemblages and modify trophic transfer efficiency.
Here we aim to show that the impact temperature can affect the trophic network and structure. This criticalquestion was investigated in the Bonifacio Straits Natural Reserve (BSNR). An Ecopath model was created,
including 32 trophic compartments covering detritus, primary producers, pelagic species, and demersal andbenthic invertebrates and fishes. To study the influence of temperature increase we built four Ecopath models
for different periods (2001, 2006, 2050, 2100). For temperature forecasting, our simulations were based onan ocean modeling approach conduct by Somot et al. (2006). They constructed a predicting model based on a
climate change IPCC-A2 scenario. Then we have compared the main trophic indicators after the temperature
increase in order to find a system response. Some network trophic analyses were implemented between different
models in order to find keystone species and their dynamics in regards to global change. Our results suggest that
global change, may modify trophic structures of exploited ecosystems and that a trophic modeling approach is anappropriate tool to anticipate such cascading and non-trivial effects.

65

P1-D1

Saint Petersburg State University, Faculty of Geography and Geology, Department of Oceanology, 33/35 10th Line, St. Petersburg, 199178,
Russia. E-mail: btvlisab@yandex.ru, koldunovaleksey@yandex.ru

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1-6103

Current divergences and enhanced biological production zones in the Japan Sea according
to satellite observations
Dmitry K. StaritsynSaint Petersburg State University, Faculty of Geography and Geoecology, Department of Oceanology, 33/35 10th Line, St. Petersburg,
199178, Russia. E-mail: d_starik@mail.ru

The problem of distribution of biological production within different dynamical formations is of interest fromboth purely biotic and fishery application viewpoints. This paper considers the current divergence flow fields
and the primary production (PP) in the Japan Sea based on satellite altimetry and biological data. The paper
provides hydrodynamic interpretation of the remote altimeter and biotic measurements, detects the patterns ofspatial-temporary variability in PP-fields, and describes and compares dynamical and biological fronts in theJapan Sea. The dependence between the year-averaged location of the biological and physically dynamical fronts
is shown to be unstable. A more close relation between these fronts may be observed in the central sea during themonsoon circulation change, as well in the western shelf influenced by Primorskoe and North-Korean currents.
Estimates are given of the PP and their divergence fields. We suggest that PP-divergence is caused by action of
the warm Tsushima Current. The current-born eddies or waves and the production do not spread all over the sea,
but their effect is associated with the zone of interaction (front) with the Japan Sea proper waters. In the southand southeast, the full PP-flow divergence zones are intermittent with convergence zones, probably because ofgradient-eddy wave manifestations.

P1-D1-6114

Ignorant academic or a sage fool? Using prior beliefs to forecast climate effects on reeffish communities
M. Aaron MacNeil
Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB3 Townsville MC, Townsville, QLD, 4810, Australia. E-mail: a.macneil@aims.gov.au

What will happen to reef fish communities in the future? Will they persist? Or die? What kinds of statements
can we make about what is most likely to happen? Often we simply want to know: what is our best guess aboutsome future state of the world? Quantifying belief requires both a formal statement of experience as well as
the capacity to revise ideas as new information becomes available – an empirical approach to understanding theworld. Reef fish depend fundamentally on hard coral and, as coral reefs are threatened by global warming andocean acidification, there is a consequential risk of declines in many reef fish communities. But which ones? Andby how much? Using a unique set of long-term data I show how monitoring programmes can be used to annually
update expectations about future climate disturbances, quantifying my own beliefs about what will happen to reeffish functional groups on the Great Barrier Reef. These explicit and subjective forecasts are compared to ignorant,
objective forecasts to demonstrate the predictive effectiveness of utilizing beliefs in a quantitative framework.

66

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1-6126

Changes of increase growth rates and fecundity of the Gizhiga-Kamchatka herring (Clupea
pallasii Valenciennes, 1847), living in a northeast part of Sea of Okhotsk in connection
with fluctuations of a water temperature benthic layer around their wintering grounds
1

2

P1-D1

Andrey A. Smirnov1, Alexey V. Vakatov1 and Alexander L. Figurkin2
Laboratory of Commercial Marine Fish, Magadan Reseach Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, 36/10 Portovaya, Magadan,
685000, Russia. E-mail: alexvakatov@mail.ru
Pacific Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (TINRO-Center), 4 Shevchenko Alley, Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray,
690950, Russia

The analysis of variability of length increase rates and fecundity of the Gizhiga-Kamchatka herring in connection
with water temperatures of the benthic layer around their overwintering grounds was the purpose of the conducted
research. The Gizhiga-Kamchatka herring inhabit the northeast Sea of Okhotsk and winters on a northeast slopeof TINRO hollow, between 57º50-59 º00 N’ (Melnikov, Loboda, 2004). In April, the herring start to migrate fromtheir overwintering sitesto their spawning locations, which are located at northern coast of the Shelihova Gulf.
Analysis was carried out on 23,9 thousand fish collected between 1987 and 2009. We carry out a comparative
analysis of body length by age group from individuals caught during the spring and autumn. The rate of change
in length for each age was calculated, and also fecundity was noted. The water temperature (x) of the benthic
layer on the wintering grounds is shown to influence the rate of increase in the length (y) the Gizhiga-Kamchatka
herring, which is expressed by the equation y=-17,795x2+11,061x-0,2453 with a correlation, r=0.9062. Connection
between water temperatures and fecundity is also investigated with the strongest relationship observed for younger
age group fish. Thus, in years with warm winters, the increase in length of the Gizhiga-Kamchatka herringpromotes an increase in the biomass of the stock. In abnormally cold years, the rate of body length increase isreduced, at time with zero recorded growth and fecundity.

P1-D1-6151

Predicting tuna habitat for spatial fisheries management using electronic tags and ocean
modelsAlistair J. Hobday1, Jason R. Hartog1, Richard Matear1, Claire M. Spillman2 and Oscar Alves2
1

2

Climate Adaptation Flagship and Wealth from Oceans Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart,
7001, Australia. E-mail: alistair.hobday@csiro.au
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), Bureau of Meteorology, 700 Collins St., Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia

Southern bluefin tuna (SBT) are a quota-managed species in the eastern Australian longline fishery, and there is amanagement need to reduce non-quota capture of this species. We developed a near-real time habitat prediction
model for SBT, which has been used since 2003 to support the spatial management of this species throughout
the fishery. The predicted distribution of SBT habitat on the east coast of Australia is based on analyses ofcurrent satellite sea surface temperatures (SST), sub-surface temperatures from a CSIRO ocean model and popup archival tag temperature data for SBT. The model output divides the spatial extent of the fishery into threezones based on the expected distribution of SBT. These predictions are provided to managers of the fishery on
a fortnightly basis, and a set of management lines that regulate spatial access to the fishery by longline fishers(based on quota holdings) are updated and distributed. We have also recently incorporated a seasonal forecast
model (POAMA) into our habitat model, allowing us to generate predictions of SBT habitat out to 5 months. We
compare the skill of this model with real time predictions made during previous fishing seasons. This seasonal
forecasting offers both managers and fishers the potential to plan for restrictions, and strategically modify theirfishing activities. Finally, we use future ocean predictions from the CSIRO Bluelink ocean model for the period
2062-2064 to consider the change in distribution compared to the present, and explore the potential impact on
fishers and managers of the future.

67

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1-6176

Regional climate change impacts on bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) catch in the Indonesian
Seas
Mega Laksmini Syamsuddin1, Sei-ichi Saitoh1, Samsul Bachri2 and Agung Budi Harto2
1

2

Laboratory of Marine Bioresource and Environment Sensing, Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1
Minato-cho, Hakodate, Hokkaido, 041-8611, Japan. E-mail: mega@salmon.fish.hokudai.ac.jp
Faculty of Earth Sciences and Technology, Study Program of Geodetic and Geomatic Engineering, Bandung Institute of Technology,
Ganesa 10, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia

This study observes regional climate changes of El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their effects
on oceanographic conditions, such as current dynamics and upwelling, and how these relate to the distribution andcatch of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the Indonesian Seas. We utilize CTD (Conductivity Temperature Depth)
data, Sea Surface Height Anomaly (SSHA) of TOPEX/POSEIDON (T/P) altimetry, Sea Surface Temperature(SST) NOAA/AVHRR satellite images and bigeye tuna catch. Data analysis are taken from 1997 to 2000 which
represent the El Niño (April 1997 – June 1998) and La Niña (July 1998 – June 2000) events. The results showthat during El Niño, negative SSHA followed by cold SST (<29ºC) related to higher bigeye tuna catch (hook rate
above 0.68). Conversely during La Niña, positive SSHA followed by warm SST (>29ºC) related to lower bigeye
tuna catch (hook rate below 0.68). Negative (positive) SSHA during El Niño correlates with shallower (deeper)
thermocline. Shallower thermocline lifts fishing layer to the surface so that increases bigeye tuna catch on longline purse on this layer. This answer optimal catch during El Niño compare to minimal catch during La Niña.
The increasing bigeye tuna catch significantly occurs on the locations where intensified currents, confluence
region, convergent and divergent currents, meandering currents, eddies, and westward upwelling Rossby wave
propagation are evident. This study concludes that there are still many potential locations that have not been
searched optimally. We recommend that the scientific methods considering oceanographic factors as proxies forfish stock assessment should be performed in the future.

P1-D1-6184

18.6-year period moon-tidal cycle in ocean/climate and its impact on climate/ecosystem
predictability
Ichiro Yasuda1, Satoshi Osafune1, Shunsuke Konda1, Sachihiko Itoh1 and Hiroyasu Hasumi2
1

2

Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
E-mail: ichiro@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Center for Climate System Research, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-8568, Japan

Bi-decadal variability that is synchronized with 18.6-year period moon-tidal cycle is found in various parts of theocean and for different climate variables and indices, e.g. water-mass variability in the subarctic North Pacific,
especially near the strong diurnal tide regions as Kuril Straits and Aleutian Islands, and in long-term climate
indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) based on proxy-reconstructed records. Climate and ocean model experiments withlocally enhanced vertical mixing around Kuril Straits show that tidal mixing and its variability could generate
bidecadal variability in the ocean and the climate. Possible explanation linking the tidal mixing and ocean/climate
is presented along with discussions on the impact on potential predictability of ocean/climate/ecosystem using thisexternal forcing of 18.6-yr oscillation and related low-frequency variability.

68Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1-6189

The fluctuations of solar activity on catch data of mullet and eel
Chih-Chieh Hsu1, Chih-Wei Chang2, Chia-Hui Wang1, Yuan-Mou Chang3, Chen-Feng You1 and Wann-Nian Tzeng4
1

3
4

Earth Dynamic System Research Center, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan, ROC. E-mail: hsucc@mail.com.tw
National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, Pingtung, Taiwan
Department of Ecoscience and Ecotechnology, National University of Tainan, Tainan, Taiwan, ROC
Institute of Fisheries Science, College of Life Science, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC

P1-D1

2

Annual catch data of fry of Mugil cephalus and Anguilla japonica recruited to the estuaries of Taiwan from 1966
to 2008 were analyzed in association with solar activity. The solar activity and A. japonica catches demonstrated
approximately synchronous oscillations while the peak catches of M. cephalus showed 5-year lag to the 11-year
period of solar activity. These findings reveal the significant correlation between solar activity and the fry catch
data of both species. However, the mechanism of the solar activity affect on the climate fluctuations and marine
system needs further study.

P1-D1-6195

Larval dispersal, overwinter mortality, and climate change: Forecasting range shifts of a
sub-tropical fish species in a western boundary current system
Jonathan A. Hare1, Mark J. Wuenschel2 and Matthew E. Kimball3
1
2
3

National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Narragansett, RI, 02882, USA. E-mail: jon.hare@noaa.gov
National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA
School of Renewable Natural Resources, Louisiana State University AgCenter, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

Winter severity is an important factor regulating population abundances in mid-latitudes. For marine species withdispersive life histories, planktonic stages are often transported well poleward of the adult range during summer
months. These young stages either migrate back to a winter range or perish owing to hypothermal conditions
during fall and winter. Along the east coast of the United States, larvae of sub-tropical species are supplied tocontinental shelf habitats as far north as Nova Scotia, Canada. However, the northern range of many of these
species is 100 to 1000 km’s to the south. The northern most range of many of these species is determined by
the northernmost latitude of tolerable temperatures for overwinter survival of juveniles. We use this mechanistic
hypothesis to forecast climate effects on range for one sub-tropical species: the gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus).
Based on experiments of thermal tolerance and principals of bioenergetics, lower lethal temperatures (acute)and degree-day criteria (chronic/prolonged) are established for the minimum thresholds of juvenile gray snapper
survival over the short (days) and long (months) term. Using a statistical downscaling approach, these thresholds
are estimated from an ensemble of IPCC AR4 models under different climate scenarios along the latitudinal
gradient of the U.S. East Coast. The results are forecasts of gray snapper northern most range under different
climate scenarios. We use this species specific forecast to develop a conceptual model of the climate-induced
range extensions of sub-tropical species along the east coast of the U.S.

P1-D1-6199

Do we know the potential impacts of global climate change on fishing nations?
Joe Scutt-Phillips1, Graham M. Pilling1, Lisa J. Readdy1, John K. Pinnegar1 and Nicholas K. Dulvy2
1
2

CEFAS, Pakefield Rd., Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR33 0HT, UK. E-mail: joe.scuttphillips@cefas.co.uk
Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada

The potential impact of future climate change on nations that rely on fisheries for protein, income and employment
has major implications. Whilst previous ‘vulnerability’ analyses have indicated geographic areas of key concern,
there has been little examination of the uncertainty arising from potential alternative climate change scenarios,
where the intensity and global distribution of impacts may vary significantly.

69

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Using UK NERC QUEST- ‘Global Scale Impacts’ project outputs, we calculate future vulnerability and potential
impacts for over 200 countries. A suite of metrics is used for Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, relatingthese to future temperature change for each country in different fishery catch components (within Exclusive
Economic Zones, high seas areas, and from freshwater, including aquaculture). Consistent adaptive capacity
projections are employed from SRES socio-economic storylines. A wide range of climate change scenarios andGlobal Climate Models are explored to better understand and present the uncertainty important to policy makers.
Extending the analysis, we examine the impact of more ‘biologically complex’ temperature/fish productivity
scenarios on results. Potential impacts on specific fishery sectors through other climate impact pathways are also
explored, such as that of future country-level water-stress scenarios on freshwater fisheries.
This vulnerability analyses provides a geographic focus for future work, the influence of non-fisheries sector
climate pathways on results, and identifies areas where a current lack of knowledge on processes and impacts
reduces our understanding of detailed climate impacts on fish and fisheries.

P1-D1-6208

Analyzing warm and cold climate phases to understand differences in survival andconnectivity of larval cod: Possible implications for climate change
Trond Kristiansen and Kenneth Drinkwater
Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes, Bergen, 5817, Norway. E-mail: trond.kristiansen@imr.no

Environmental variation can cause significant fluctuations in the survival of larval fish and plankton. Understanding
these fluctuations is critical for developing more accurate fisheries models, which are needed for scientific,
socioeconomic research, and developing strategies for managing the effects of climate change. In the absence ofcomplete, high-resolution climate models, we can learn from retrospective analyses of warm and cold periods.
During the 1970s the North Atlantic (NA) Ocean experienced a general cooling period, while the 1990s wascharacterized by an intense warming period. By contrasting these two phases of the NA, we can analyze andobserve how cold and warm periods affect ocean currents and the distribution of heat, and how such changes
propagate through trophic levels from primary production to top-level fish predators. Warm and cold phases
had a strong impact in the timing of spring bloom and thereby the production of food for larval fish. Differencesin climate can also alter the general ocean currents, leading to variations in the drift trajectories between warmand cold phases. Here, we combine a mechanistic individual-based model (IBM) with a high-resolution threedimensional physical and biological model (ROMS+BIOFASHAM) to explore how the climate in the 1970s andthe 1990s caused differences in modeled larval cod growth, survival, drift, and connectivity between spawningand nursery grounds along the coast of Norway. Based on these results, we describe differences in ecosystemproperties in cold and warm periods and how these patterns may relate to cod recruitment in a future changing
climate.

P1-D1-6221

An example of estimating future Bering Sea northern rock sole productivity fromstatistical downscaled IPCC models and its effect on management
Thomas Wilderbuer, Nicholas A. Bond and William Stockhausen
Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, NOAA/PMEL,
Seattle, WA, 98195-4925, USA. E-mail: nicholas.bond@noaa.gov

There is an increasing interest in forecasting the implications of climate change on the production of marine
fish. These analyses involve five steps: 1) identification of mechanisms underlying the reproductive success,growth and distribution of major fish and shellfish populations; 2) assessment of the feasibility of down-scaling
implications of IPCC scenarios on regional ecosystems to select environmental indicators; 3) evaluation of climate
model scenarios and select IPCC models that appear to provide valid representations of forcing for the region of
study; 4) extracting environmental indicators from climate scenarios and incorporating indicators into projection
models for fish and shellfish; and 5) evaluation of the mean, variance, and trend in fish and shellfish production
under a changing ecosystem. An example is presented where downscaled estimates of future springtime winddirection from IPCC models and water temperature are used to estimate the impacts of climate change on cross70

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
shelf transport of northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyzystra) larvae and somatic growth in the Bering Sea. A
management strategy evaluation is performed to discern the performance of our current management system given
the IPCC models output of future climate. Results show climate change may result in a modest increase in thefrequency of strong year classes of northern rock sole through 2050.

The impact of climate change on the fishery ecosystems in the Taiwan Strait and their
responses
Shengyun Yang1 and Qiulin Zhou2
1
2

Marine and Environment Institute, Xiamen University, PR China
Third Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanic Administration, 178 Daxue Rd., Xiamen, Fujian, 361005, PR China
E-mail: zhou@public.xm.fj.cn

The paper studies the impact of climate change on the fishery ecosystems in the Taiwan Strait and their responses
in terms of sea water rise, precipitation, the change of land runoff and sea currents, as well as sea the episodes oflevel rise and El Niño. These studies have revealed that the rise of sea temperature has impact on the distributionof fishes in the Taiwan Strait and its adjacent waters. Before 1980s, there were 366 species of fishes in the northern
Taiwan Strait. Since 1990s, only 246 species of fishes were recorded, a decrease of 120 species. In addition, 13
new species of fish were recorded in the Taiwan Strait, all being warm waters species. Those fish that used to belanded in the southern Taiwan Strait are now caught in the northern Taiwan Strait. Climate change also impacts thecommunity structure and biomass of plankton in the upwelling fishing grounds in the southern Taiwan Strait. Thechange of dominant species such as planktonic copepods will have direct impact of the harvest of planktivorous
fishes. The decline of fishery population due to the change of community structure induced by the climate change
will have more serious and lasting impacts than overfishing. The studies have also revealed that the rise of sea
temperature will change the time of the fish migrations and the change in circulation will impact the migrationroute of fishes. The circulation may also affect larval drift, which if they did not reach the nursery grounds could
cause disaster to fish population. El Niño events have led to the change of the Changjiang River runoff and marine
environmental conditions and impacts on the temporal and spatial shift of coastal spawning and feeding grounds,
and larval development off Zhejiang Province. The paper concludes by making recommendations to counterthe impacts of climate change on the ecosystems in the Taiwan Strait, such as giving priority to basic research,long-term and periodic ecosystem monitoring, the impact of coastal economic and social development on theecosystems in the climate changes scenarios and the responses of marine fisheries to climate changes.

P1-D1-6272 (Cancelled)

Acoustic observation of living organisms reveals the oxygen minimum zone
Arnaud Bertrand1,2, Michael Ballón1,2 and Alexis Chaigneau2,3
1

23

Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), UMR212 EME, CRH, Av. Jean Monnet, BP 171, 34203, Sète, France
E-mail: Arnaud.Bertrand@ird.fr
Instituto del Mar del Perú, Esquina Gamarra y Gral. Valle s/n, Apartado 22, Callao, Lima, Peru
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, IPSL/LOCEAN, UPMC/CNRS/IRD/MNHN, 4 Place Jussieu, Case 100, 75252, Paris,
Cedex 05, France

Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) are expanding in the World Ocean as a result of climate change and direct
anthropogenic influence. OMZ expansion greatly affects biogeochemical processes and marine life, especially byincreasing greenhouse gas production and constraining the vertical habitat of most marine organisms. Currently,
monitoring of the upper limit of the OMZs relies on heavy sampling protocols, causing poor spatial resolution.
Here we show that routine underwater acoustic observations of the vertical distribution of marine organisms
allow a precise determination of the upper limit of the OMZ. We used this high-resolution information in the
Eastern South Pacific to document mesoscale and submesoscale features that structure marine ecosystems. We
also estimate the habitable volume for the world’s most exploited fish, the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens).
Horizontally, anchovy distribution is constrained by the offshore extension of cold coastal waters originated fromupwelling cells. Vertically, the range of distribution of anchovy is limited by the OMZ. This method can be
implemented on any platform (e.g., research vessel, commercial vessels, instrumented buoys) equipped withacoustic echosounders and allows revisiting historical acoustic data for the reconstruction of spatiotemporal
71

P1-D1

P1-D1-6263

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
dynamics of the upper limit of the OMZ. Our approach is a novel way of studying the impact of physical processes
on marine life and extracting valid information about the pelagic habitat and its spatial structure, a crucial aspectof Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management in the current context of climate change.

P1-D1-6283

Climate-driven, bottom-up control of North Sea herring recruitment
Marc Hufnagl1, Myron A. Peck1, Mark Dickey-Collas2, Richard D.M. Nash3 and Thomas Pohlmann4
1

2
3
4

Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Center for Marine and Climate Research, University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24,
Hamburg, D-22767, Germany. E-mail: marc.hufnagl@uni-hamburg.de
Wageningen Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies, P.O. Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands
Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870, Nordnes, Bergen, 5817, Norway
Institute of Oceanography, Center for Marine and Climate Research, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany

Recent recruitment failures of North Sea herring (Clupea harengus) appear to stem from processes acting during theoverwintering period as young larvae drift from spawning grounds to juvenile nursery areas. We performed longterm (1970-2005) 3-D biophysical, individual-based model (IBM) simulations to examine how climate-driven
bottom-up factors may impact overwinter larval survival and recruitment variability of the different spawningcomponents of this species in this region. The physiological-based larval foraging and growth IBM incorporated
data collected from a large number of laboratory and field studies allowing a species-specific parameterizationand extensive validation exercises. Field growth rates agreed well with modelled growth rates when realistic prey
concentrations were used as model inputs. Model results suggest that the intensity and spreading of the North
Sea autumn zooplankton bloom might be an important driver for overwinter survival. Furthermore, modelled
and observed sizes of larvae after the overwinter period agreed well from 1990 to 2005 whereas the model under
predicted lengths observed in earlier years. This might be due to either increasing rates of mortality and/or
decreasing prey quality since 1990. The North Sea underwent a ‘regime shift’ around 1988 to 1990 includingchanges in plankton composition. The overall effects of such a change are unclear. However, bottom-up factors
appear to more strongly regulate recruitment potential since 1990 although these changing environmental impacts
were initially masked by increasing levels of spawning stock biomass, as the stock rebuilt after the 1970s collapse.

P1-D1-6289

Projected effects of global warming on corals in seas close to Japan
Yumiko Yara1, Masahiko Fujii1, Yasuhiro Yamanaka1, Naosuke Okada1, Hiroya Yamano2 and Kazuhiro Oshima1
1

2

Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10 W5 Kita-ku, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
E-mail: yara@ees.hokudai.ac.jp
Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506,
Japan

Global warming and associated increases in sea water temperature are considered to be crucial factors for futurecorals, by inducing coral habitat migration toward higher latitudes and intensifying chances for coral bleachingand death. Using projected monthly-mean sea surface temperature in the simulations of the climate models andsimplified indices, we quantitatively evaluate the potential effects of global warming on corals in seas close to
Japan. We employed “the 20th century climate in coupled models” (20C3M) simulations from 1900 to 1999, andsimulations from 2000 to 2099 under a middle-range IPCC greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B), based on
the 23 CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3) models. Our result shows that the temperaturedetermined northern limit of subtropical and temperate coral habitats will migrate northward, by around ~100km,
by the end of the 21st century. In the Ryukyu Islands located in the southwestern part of Japan, on the other hand,both frequency and area of coral bleaching or death are expected to be intensified. Particularly, intermittently
experienced high water temperatures which result in bleaching or death of present-day corals, will appear
perpetually in the latter half of the 21st century. Uncertainties of the projected effects of global warming on corals
will be discussed.

72

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1-6354 (Cancelled)

Extreme climatic events and the dynamics of the Peruvian small pelagic fish environment
Miguel Ñiquen1, Marilou Bouchon1 and Milena Arias-Schreiber2
1

Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Esq. Gamarra y Gral.Valle s/n, Chucuito, Callao, Peru. E-mail: mniquen@imarpe.gob.pe
Leibniz Center for Tropical Marine Ecology, Fahrenheitstrasse 6, Bremen, 28359, Germany

Small pelagic fish currently comprise about one quarter of the global fish catch and are extremely sensitive toclimate-ocean variability. The Peruvian pelagic fishery takes advantage of the massive abundance of these small
fish and thus is an important indicator on changes in species distribution and abundance due to environmental
variability. Beyond seasonal changes, the Peruvian pelagic environment has to put up also with interdecadal (ENiño Southern Oscillation or ENSO events) and multidecadal (El Niño and La Niña periods) variability. This
research describes long-term changes in the dominant catches of the Peruvian small pelagic fishery after thethree last strong ENSOs from 1972-73, 1983-84 and 1997-98. Due to their time-span, intensity of the warm sea
surface temperature anomalies and vast impacts along the Peruvian coast, these mentioned ENSOs are classified
as extreme climatic events. Results show that after the first strong ENSO in 1972-73, the Peruvian pelagic habitatchanged from a high-dominant anchovy to a low-dominant anchovy environment. This feature remained until the
ENSO 1982-83, when the low-dominant anchovy changed to a sardine-anchovy environment and switched again
to a high-dominant anchovy environment after the 1997-98 ENSO. Although the connection between climatechange and the occurrence of strong ENSO events is not clear yet, the environmental and subsequent fisherychanges described in this study should be considered in the analysis of future scenarios for climate change.

P1-D1-6380

The impact of climate changes on the distribution and abundance of mackerel in thenorthwestern PacificSukyung Kang1, Jae Bong Lee1, Anne B. Hollowed2, Nicholas A. Bond3 and Suam Kim4
12
34

National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, Busan, 619-902, R Korea. E-mail: kangsk@nfrdi.go.kr
Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA, Seattle, WA, USA
Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
Pukyong University, Dayeon3-dong, Nam-gu, Busan, 608-737, R Korea

In recent years, time series of climatic/oceanographic/fisheries data have been examined to assess the impact ofclimate variability on fisheries resources. In this investigation, we examined potential impact of climate variability
on mackerel production in the marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Data sets included time seriesof catch, recruitment, biomass of mackerel in Korea and Japan, and environmental factors such as temperature,salinity, meridional wind intensity since 1970. Mackerel abundances increased in the mid-1990s and the habitatof mackerel seemed to have expanded to the north with the SST increase. The time series of spawning biomass
and recruitment of mackerel showed the discontinuity and significant change in recruitment was found basedon correlations with salinity. Recruitment was higher when the winds were greater from the south across theshelf break of the East China Sea. Therefore, we may speculate that when Tsushima Warm Current is strong,chub mackerel larvae are advected into Korean waters, which confirms the relationship between salinity andrecruitment success of mackerel. We hypothesize that the recruitment of mackerel is positively influenced by highsalinity conditions or warm ocean conditions in the ECS through its influence on the volume of suitable spawning
habitat. We forecast the impact of climate change on mackerel production by imbedding time trends in the volumeof spawning habitat into a stock projection model. The results of stock projection models will improve scientificsupport for policy and management of mackerel in the Northwestern Pacific.

73

P1-D1

2

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P1-D1-6383

An assessment of regime shifts in North Pacific ecosystems
Franklin B. Schwing, Roy Mendelssohn and Steven J. Bograd
NOAA-Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Pacific Grove, CA, 93950, USA. E-mail: franklin.schwing@noaa.gov

The concept of relatively abrupt, large-scale changes in the state of the atmosphere and ocean, accompanied
by a corresponding reorganization of marine ecosystem structure, has garnered considerable attention in recent
years both in the scientific literature as well as from the perspective of resource management. These changes,
commonly referred to as climate regime-shifts, have particular significance in the North Pacific, where they havebeen credited with causing major changes in important commercial fish populations, including sardine and salmon,
as well as in other ecologically important species. Proper identification of regime shifts is critical to our ability
to separate natural and anthropogenic trends in global climate. Understanding the relative timing of these events
provides the links from climate variability to ecosystem response, which is important if a predictive capability of
the impacts of future climate change is to be developed.
We apply state-space models and other objective methods to characterize the evolution of a number of North
Pacific physical and biological observational and model time series, and to provide evidence of past synchronous
temporal behavior. In particular, we examine for regime shifts related to those reported in about 1976, 1989, and1998. Do we see evidence of an abrupt and simultaneous change in the behavior of all time series, as some havereported? Is there a lag between series, evidence of a mechanism or propagation of the regime shift signal? Aresuch shifts more gradual in some series?

P1-D1-6389

Indices of temporal variability in North Pacific SST from IPCC model future climate
scenarios: A hierarchical Bayesian analysis
Francisco Beltran1, Bruno Sanso1, Ricardo Lemos2 and Roy Mendelssohn3
123

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064, USA
E-mail: roy.mendelssohn@noaa.gov
Instituto de Oceanografia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
NOAA-Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, Environmental Research Division, Pacific Grove, CA, 93950, USA

Historical records of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific as well as output from five IPCC global
climate models corresponding to both, 20th century conditions (20c3m) and 21st century forecasts (SRESAIB),
are analyzed using Bayesian methods. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) are used to decompose theanomalies of the observational data, and then climate model anomalies are projected onto the observational EOFs.
A hierarchical Bayesian model with time-varying parameters is then used to estimate a common temporal pattern.
The model is based on the assumption that all six time series, for a given EOF mode, reflect a common baseline,
and that the climate models deviate from this baseline according to a time-varying individual model discrepancy.
The goal of the project is to extract indices of relevant future temporal variability in SST from the IPCC simulations
that can be used in ecosystem models to project the effects of different climate change scenarios on the ecosystem.

74

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P2 Oral Presentations
26 April, 11:00 (P2-6119)

Global environmental change scenarios for the world’s small pelagic fisheries and global
fishmeal and oil markets
Gorka Merino1,2, Manuel Barange1, Christian Mullon3, Robert Holmes1, Julia L. Blanchard4 and Lynda Rodwell2
12
3
4

Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK. E-mail: gmerin@pml.ac.uk
School of Earth, Ocean and Environmental Sciences, University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, 10 Plymouth, PL4 8AA, UK
Unite de Recherche Ecosystèmes Marins Exploités, Avenue Jean Monnet, 34200, Sète, France
Division of Biology, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, UK

26 April, 11:15 (P2-6290)

Can there be stable, cooperative exploitation of a transboundary fish stock under climate
variability? A game analysis on the Pacific sardine fishery in the California Current
Gakushi Ishimura1,2, Samuel Herrick3 and Ussif Rashid Sumaila2
1

2

3

Center for Sustainability Science, Hokkaido University, Kita-ku, Kita 9 Nishi 8, Sapporo, 060-0809, Japan
E-mail: gakugaku@u.washington.edu
Fisheries Economics Research Unit, Fisheries Center, the University of British Columbia, AERL, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver, BC,
V6T 1Z4, Canada
NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 8604 La Jolla Shores Drive, La Jolla, CA, 92037-1508, USA

The time variant/asymmetric distribution of a fish stock caused by climate variability is one of the challenges
facing the cooperative exploitation of a transboundary fish stock. This is particularly characteristic of the Pacificsardine (Sardinops sagax) stock, which has exhibited extreme decadal variability corresponding to warm/cold
regime shifts of the California current ecosystem (CCS). During the 1930s-1940s, when the CCS was in a warm
regime, the Pacific sardine stock supported the largest fishery in the CCS. In the late 1940s, landings started to
decline dramatically and the sardine stock shifted southward. The subsequent collapse of the sardine fishery has
been attributed to a combination of overfishing and a shift to a cold regime in the CCS. With the onset of a warm
regime in the 1970s, the stock started to rebuild and currently ranges from Canada to Mexico, supporting fisheries
in all three countries, yet, no transboundary management agreement is in place. Given the eventuality of a CCS
cold regime (or even global climate change), and the likely redistribution of the sardine stock, the need for aninternational agreement seems all the more pressing. Our study applied a three-agent bioeconomic framework,
which incorporates environmental effects, to investigate the impact of climate change on sardine stock abundance
and geographic distribution. A game theoretic analysis was conducted to evaluate the stability of cooperative
exploitation of the sardine stock under various climate variability scenarios. Our results show that climate variability
is an obstacle to stable, cooperative exploitation of the Pacific sardine stock by the three countries.

75

P2

Fishmeal and fish oil are global commodities traded in international markets, resulting primarily from the reductionof a significant proportion of the global small pelagic fish catches. A network model that captures approximately
85% of the world’s fishmeal and fish oil production and trade has been developed and parameterized using tradeand catch data (2000-2005). In order to estimate the consequences of climate change on the global productionconsumption system, future scenarios need to be generated for this bioeconomic network. Such scenarios musthave explicit ecological, management, and demand components. In this contribution the ecological component
is determined by predicted changes in the production of the underlying fish stocks, at interannual, decadal andmultidecadal time scales. Data and model assumptions are provided from the QUEST_Fish project. Management
scenarios consider range from open access to maximum sustainable yield, and consider historical levels ofnational compliance to regulation. Demand scenarios rely on likely changes in the fisheries sector over the
coming decades, as determined by Delgado et al. (2003). The work presented pioneers the quantification of futurebioeconomic scenarios driven by climate change, economic globalization, global demand for fish products andmanagement efficiency. Preliminary results indicate that the way we manage climate impacts, both at a regionaland global level, will determine the sustainability of the world’s reduction fisheries, a conclusion that could be
extended to other, similarly affected, natural resources. Alternative pathways to sustainability will be outlined.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 11:30 (P2-6398)

Vulnerability of aquaculture to climate change in the Pacific
Timothy Pickering1, Ben Ponia1, Cathy Hair2, Paul Southgate3, Elvira S. Poloczanska4, Luc Della Patrona5,
Antoine Teitelbaum1, C.V. Mohan6 and Michael Phillips7
1

2
3
4
5
6
7

Aquaculture Section, Coastal Fisheries Program, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, B.P. D5, 98848 Noumea Cedex, New
Caledonia. E-mail: timp@spc.int
James Cook University, C/- Northern Fisheries Centre, P.O. Box 5396, Cairns, Queensland, 4870, Australia
School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 120, Cleveland, Queensland, 4163, Australia
IFREMER, Département Lagons Ecosystèmes Aquaculture Durables, BP 2059, 98846 Nouméa Cedex, Nouvelle-Calédonie
Network of Aquaculture Centres in Asia-Pacific (NACA), P.O. Box 1040, Kasetsart Post Office, Bangkok, 10903, Thailand
The World Fish Centre, Jalan Batu Maung, 11960 Batu Maung, Pulau Penang, Malaysia

Small pond aquaculture has been identified as one of three main regional strategies to help address a growing gap
between fish supply and demand in the Pacific island countries, and to build resilience to the effects of climatechange upon coastal reef fisheries. But aquaculture will itself be affected by climate change.
This paper provides an assessment of the likely effects of climate change on important aquaculture environments,and on the productivity of aquaculture systems in the Pacific islands region. It has been prepared to equip policy
makers, resource managers and aquaculture developers in Pacific island countries and territories with information
on how climate change might affect future plans for sustainable aquaculture development.
Projected scenarios for climate change are here matched with published information and expert opinion aboutaquaculture commodities and the biological tolerances of the high-priority species for aquaculture in the insular
Pacific, in order to come up with an assessment of vulnerabilities. Current and projected uses of aquacultured
species in the Pacific islands region are described, and recent and potential aquaculture production is summarised.
The vulnerability of aquaculture to the direct and indirect effects of climate change are assessed, under the low(B1) and high (A2) IPCC emission scenarios for 2035 and 2100. Projected changes in production across the mainaquaculture commodities are summarised, and management measures to help aquaculture adapt to climate change
and identify uncertainty are recommended. Gaps in knowledge, and future research needed to build more resilientaquaculture sectors, are identified.

26 April, 11:45 (P2-6359)

Modeling fleet behavior in the Bering Sea pollock fishery under climate change
Alan Haynie and Lisa Pfeiffer
NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA. E-mail: Alan.Haynie@noaa.gov

One component of the Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research Project (BSIERP) is a spatial economic modelthat predicts changes in fishing activity in the Bering Sea pollock fishery that may result from climate change.
Models such as the one employed here have been used in the Bering Sea and elsewhere to model how fishers makedecisions about where to fish. Commercial fishers choose where to fish based on observable and unobservablecharacteristics of the area, and the fisher. We model location choice as a function of the expected revenue in an
area, fuel and fish prices, distance to an area, vessel characteristics and institutional and environmental conditions.
In the Bering Sea pollock fishery, climate variables affect many aspects of the fishing decision. Key among these
aspects is the role that climate has on fish location and abundance and the impact that weather plays in daily
participation and location choices for smaller vessels. In this paper, we develop and apply a model of the America
Fisheries Act pollock catcher processor fleet. The spatial economic model incorporates climate data (e.g., ice
cover, SST, wind) into the model, permitting us to determine the relative impact of observable contemporaneousenvironmental conditions on location choices. We develop a framework to include predictions of changing pollock
abundance in the model, which allows us to predict fisher responses to scenarios developed by oceanographic andecosystem modelers involved in the BSIERP as well as different scenarios for fuel and seafood market conditions.

76

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 12:00 (P2-6367)

Scenarios for the future: Drivers of change in the Peruvian fisheries sector
Marie-Caroline Badjeck1 and Tania Mendo Aguilar Wosnitza2
1

2

The WorldFish Center, Jalan Batu Maung, Batu Maung, 11960 Bayan Lepas, Penang, P.O. Box 500, GPO 10670, Malaysia
E-mail: m.badjeck@cgiar.org
Parque Bartolome Herrera, Calle B 190, Lima, 32, Perú

26 April, 12:15 (P2-6071)

The effect of climate change on fishing behaviour in the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery
Ana Norman-López and Sean Pascoe
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, 233 Middle St., Cleveland, Queensland, 4163, Australia. E-mail: ana.norman@csiro.au

Climate change is expected to induce a southern movement of the Eastern Tuna and Billfish Fishery (ETBF)
and to impact its abundance with the increase in sea surface temperatures and the strengthening of the East
Australia Current. These environmental changes will change the profitability of different areas and species caught
within the ETBF and as such result in a redistribution of fishing effort among alternative areas. Furthermore, themagnitude of the effort displacement could induce a relocation of some vessels to more southern ports, which inturn would impact on communities based in the original ports. Understanding the response of fishers to climatechange is critical in order to design management plans that protect the resource, provide economic benefits tofishers, and prepare communities for possible employment and income changes. In this paper, we use random
utility models to investigate how fishers choose different areas, based on numerous observable and unobservablecharacteristics of the area and the fisher. We model location choice as a function of the expected revenue in eacharea, distance to an area, vessel characteristics, current environmental conditions and climate predictions. The
climate predictions include physical changes as well as changes in the ETBF abundance and location. These
predictions have been obtained from oceanographic and ecosystem climate models. The results from our analysis
contribute to an improved understanding of the response of fishers to climate change.

77

P2

Peru is the largest producer of fishmeal and fish oil worldwide with the overall production absorbed by aquaculture,
one of the fastest growing animal food producing sectors, dominated by China and South East Asian countries.
Localized changes in the productivity of Peruvian marine waters induced by climate change and increased climate
variability will pose new challenges to the fishery and the aquaculture sectors globally. However, climate change
does not occur in isolation of other drivers of change. Processes of environmental, economic, social and politicalchange will affect the Peruvian fishery sector, potentially creating additional vulnerability to climate change.
Understanding non-climate drivers of change and creating plausible descriptions of how the future may develop
can inform adaptation planning. This paper presents an integrated approach to the construction of fisheries sector
scenarios required for the analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation policies in the Peruvian fisheries
sector. Through an expert elicitation survey, we identify and analyse the multiple drivers of change faced by thefisheries sector in the past as well as explore future ones. This is followed by a workshop where experts construct
future scenarios for the sector for 2050. The results will aid management, planning and policy measures aimed atincreasing the capacity of the fisheries sector to face the challenges posed by climate change.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 12:30 (P2-6230)

Impact of climate change on marine resources food security and local economies in West
African countries
Ussif Rashid Sumaila1, William L. Cheung2 and Vicky W.Y. Lam1
12

Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada. E-mail: r.sumaila@fisheries.ubc.ca
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

The productivity and maximum catch potential of marine resources of countries in the tropics were shown to
be impacted the most under previous projections of climate change studies. The majority of these countries aredeveloping countries, which depend to a good extent on marine fish and invertebrates for their animal protein
supply. Furthermore, fishing is the major, and in some cases, the primary available livelihood source for many
coastal communities in these countries. The current study aims to assess the impact on the food security andlocal economies of these countries qualitatively and quantitatively when the maximum catch potential of different
fish species changes under various climate change scenarios. In addition, we identified the coastal countries inthis region with the highest vulnerability to the change in climate in terms of food security and local economies.
Finally, we evaluated the economic efficiency of fisheries in these countries under different management measuresfor coping and adapting to climate change using cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Thus, the effectiveness of various
policy options for managing marine resources, such as establishing marine reserves and reducing fishing capacity
under various climate change scenarios, are assessed. Our study will help decision-makers choose the mostappropriate management measures for managing the marine resources in West Africa with an aim to secure foodsupply and enhance local economies under the impact of climate change.

26 April, 12:45 (P2-6386)

Ocean proxies for seafood market variability in the South Brazil Bight
Maria A. Gasalla1, R. Pincinato1 and I. Belkin2
1
2

Fisheries Ecosystems Laboratory, Instituto Oceanografico, University of São Paulo, Brazil. E-mail: mgasalla@usp.br
Graduate School of Oceanography, University of Rhode Island, USA

Relationships between environmental factors and fluctuations in seafood market price and quantities in the South
Brazil Bight are studied from 1967 to 2007. The collection of data from wholesale market and satellite-basedsources allowed for the exploration of seasonal and inter-annual variability. Market data were correlated with
time-series of sea surface temperature, climatic indices and some oceanographic anomalies.
Statistical models were applied to explore factors controlling market fluctuations of small pelagics, mackerels,
bonitos, swordfish, cephalopods, sharks and croakers, with special attention to categories used for sashimi. Normal
supply-demand relationships can be clearly observed for some resources when prices move up as quantities go
down. Prices can correlate with supply, demand, and probably with seafood quality, but these factors do not seemto totally explain fluctuation. Rather, some trends appear to be partially linked to the ocean condition, such as sea
surface temperature change and the regional long-term warming. Changes in sea surface temperature can also
play a significant role in price fluctuations, therefore forecasting models can be further improved by using ocean
proxies.

78

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Day 4 Plenary Oral Presentations
29 April, 9:05 (P3-6212), Invited

Impacts of climate changes and a pragmatic ecosystem-based approach for assessing andforecasting harvest policies under changing climate in Korea
Chang Ik Zhang1 and Jae Bong Lee2
1
2

Pukyong National University, Busan, 608-737, R Korea. E-mail: cizhang@pknu.ac.kr
National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, Busan, 619-705, R Korea

29 April, 9:30 (P3-6073), Invited

Assessing the adequacy of current fisheries management under changing climate
Éva Plagányi1, Scarla Weeks2, Tim Skewes1, Mark Gibbs1, Elvira S. Poloczanska1 Ana Norman-López1, Laura
Blamey3, Muri Soares3 and William Robinson3
1

2
3

CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, 233 Middle St., Cleveland, Queensland, 4163, Australia
E-mail: Eva.Plaganyi-lloyd@csiro.au
Centre for Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Science, The University of Queensland, Queensland, 4072, Australia
Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Cape Town, Private Bag Rondebosch, 7700, South Africa

Climate change is likely to have a significant impact on both target and non-target marine stocks worldwide,with the concomitant need for management strategies capable of sustaining fishing into the future. We use
several southern hemisphere fisheries to highlight the likely impacts of climate change at a range of levels, fromindividual to population responses, as well as ecosystem ramifications. Examples are drawn from polar (Antarctic
krill fishery and dependent predator species), temperate (South African east coast linefish community, west coast
pelagic fishery, abalone and rock lobster) and tropical (Australian rock lobster) fisheries. Responses of thesesystems to either past observed environmental changes or postulated future changes are used to deduce someanticipated implications of climate change for fisheries management, including economic impacts and governanceconsiderations. We evaluate the effectiveness of current single-species assessment models, management strategy
evaluation approaches and multi-species assessment models as future management tools to cope with likely climate
related changes. Non-spatial stock assessment models will have limited ability to separate fishery effects fromthe impacts of climate change. Single-species management procedure frameworks (with their feedback loops) are
predicted to be more successful in terms of detecting and adapting to changes in target stocks. Nonetheless, they
will still be limited in their longer-term ability to manage stocks sustainably under changing climate unless they
include spatial structure, environmental forcing or a broader ecosystem perspective.

79

Day 4 Plenary

Climate changes such as global warming, decadal climatic regime shifts and interannual variability of the ENSO
phenomenon can affect ocean conditions, and thus affect the functioning mechanism of marine ecosystems and the
distribution and abundance of fisheries resources. There has been an increasing trend in sea surface temperatures
which has accelerated in last decades in Korean waters. The recent warming trend in the Korean marine ecosystem
is associated with a decline in cold-water species (e.g. walleye pollock) and an increase in warm-water species(e.g. squids, mackerels). This warming trend is also associated with changes in spatial distribution, growth andreproduction of fish stocks such as common mackerel in Korean waters. A pragmatic ecosystem-based approachhas been developed for assessing fisheries resources, which evaluates four management objectives: maintaining
sustainability, biodiversity, habitat quality, and socio-economic benefits. A number of indicators are used toassess ecosystem status. Target and limit reference points were chosen for each indicator to assess the status of
species, fisheries and ecosystems. A forecasting version of this approach is in the developing stages with an aim
to forecast impacts of climate changes and/or fishing activities (e.g. TAC) on fish and fisheries of an ecosystem.
We attempted to apply this approach to the Korean large purse seine fishery.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

29 April, 9:55 (P3-5996)

Sustainable strategies in a warming climate: Salmon in the Arctic
Jennifer L. Nielsen1, Gregory T. Ruggerone2, Christian E. Zimmerman1 and Jamal H. Moss3
1
2
3

US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, 4210 University Dr., Anchorage, AK, 99508, USA. E- mail: jlnielsen@usgs.gov
Natural Resources Consultants, Inc., 1900 West Nickerson St., Suite 207, Seattle, WA, 98119, USA
NOAA Fisheries, Ted Stevens Marine Research Institute, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 17109 Point Lena Loop Rd., Juneau, AK,
99801, USA

In the warming Arctic, aquatic habitats are in flux and salmonids are exploring their options. Post-glacialcolonization by Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) includes hundreds of populations in Russia, Norway and Finland.
Arctic salmon have extended their range eastward as far as the Kara Sea in central Russia. In eastern North
America, the northern tip of Quebec seems to be an Atlantic salmon barrier with low freshwater temperatures
preventing development. Small populations of Pacific chum (Oncorhynchus keta) and pink salmon (O. gorbuscha)in Canada’s Mackenzie River may survive because these species are less dependent on freshwater habitats andgrow rapidly at sea. Adult sockeye (O. nerka), coho (O. kisutch), Chinook (O. tshawytscha), pink and chum salmon
have sporadically been caught in domestic and subsistence fisheries throughout the Alaskan Arctic. Spawning
populations, however, are rare and limited to pink salmon in Arctic drainages north of Point Hope and reports ofchum salmon spawning in drainages in the northwestern Beaufort Sea. Physical and biological conditions canplay a critical role in establishment of self-sustaining populations. While broad-scale predictive models of climatechange in the Arctic exist for both marine and freshwater habitats, we have little to judge the temporal and spatial
scales of change in habitat and biological adaptations necessary for persistence of self-sustaining populations ofsalmon in Arctic waters. We describe potential barriers to colonization based on current conditions and explore
what we know and do not know about patterns of climate change in the Arctic potentially affecting sustainability
in salmon.

29 April, 10:10 (P3-6395)

Moving from fisheries oceanography towards ecosystem oceanography for building
scenarios for marine ecosystems under anthropogenic and natural forcing in the XXICentury
Philippe Cury
IRD, UMR EME 212, CRH (Centre de Recherche Halieutique Méditerranéenne et Tropicale) or IRD - IFREMER and Université
Montpellier II, Avenue Jean Monnet, BP 171, 34203 Sète Cedex, France. E-mail: philippe.cury@ird.fr

Overexploitaton and climate change are increasingly causing unanticipated changes in marine ecosystems,
such as higher variability in fish recruitment and shifts in species dominance. An ecosystem-based approach
to fisheries attempts to address these effects by integrating populations, food webs and fish habitats at different
scales. Ecosystem models represent indispensable tools to achieve this objective. However, a balanced researchstrategy is needed to avoid overly complex models. Ecosystem oceanography represents such a balanced strategy
that relates ecosystem components and their interactions to climate change and exploitation. It aims at developing
realistic and robust models at different levels of organization and addressing specific questions in a global change
context while systematically exploring the ever-increasing amount of biological and environmental data. Thosemodels intend to develop, to integrate, and to promote the development of scenarios for marine ecosystems underanthropogenic and natural forcing in the XXI Century.

80

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

29 April, 10:25 (P3-6391)

The challenges of developing fisheries stock assessment approaches, harvest control rules,
and management strategies to satisfy and adapt to increasingly complex management
objectives in a changing environment
James N. Ianelli
NOAA-Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Resource Ecology and Fisheries Management Division, Bldg. 4, 7600 Sand Point Way
NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA. E-mail: jim.ianelli@noaa.gov

29 April, 11:00 (P3-6335)

Networking across global marine ‘hotspots’
Gretta Pecl1, Alistair J. Hobday2, Stewart Frusher1, Warwick Sauer3 and participants of Workshop 5
12
3

Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
E-mail: Gretta.Pecl@utas.edu.au
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
Rhodes University, P.O. Box 94, Grahamstown, 6140, South Africa

The enormity of the global adaptation challenge is demonstrated by climate predictions that indicate a rise inmarine waters of up to 4°C by the end of this century. Regions exposed to the most rapid warming are expected
to provide the earliest information on impacts, assessments of the ability of models to capture climate change
and evaluation of the success of adaptation measures. These global hotspots will be sentinels of change andpivotal to our understanding for managing change. The Networking across global marine hotspots workshop was
designed to bring together researchers located in these hotspots to summarise information currently emerging on
climate change impacts and to discuss the potential for developing a global network of scientists, policy makers
and managers working in marine hotspots. Such a network would provide a global forum for communication,
collaborations and combined learning that would capitalise as efficiently and rapidly as possible on emerging
information. Traditionally we have looked to the past to generate hypotheses of future species, ecosystem andfishery behaviour. However, as we move towards no-analogue futures, the nature and pace of climate change
is eroding the value of historical information. Research from hotspots would provide greater knowledge formanagers and communities including increased confidence in the models and proposed adaptation options.
Adaptation to the impacts of a 4°C warming will be a complex, difficult and multi-dimensional undertaking,but one that is a necessary for lessening the realised impacts of climate change. Cooperative learning in thisendeavour will be essential.

81

Day 4 Plenary

The task of applying the best available information for fisheries management advice is growing rapidly as thenumber of stocks or stock components considered increases. Stock assessments are highly uncertain; adding
links through consumption observations and environmental parameters generally inflates the uncertainty on stock
dynamics. From the fisheries harvest side, transparency of activities is generally better but there remain serious
information gaps for managers (e.g., lack of observer data, information on costs, fishery responses to different
types of regulations, etc.). Adding non-stationary dynamics to both of these sets of processes (at the ecosystemand fisheries management levels) further complicates predictions beyond near-term trends. Forecast methods exist
that distill complex adaptations and interactions and perform well in predictive tests. However, these methods
generally ignore processes typical in annual fisheries decision making including how broad-reaching management
systems respond to new information. In this paper, we propose a fisheries management scenario where routine
assessments are tested periodically for productivity changes that may affect estimated stock “target” levels. This
provides a way for managers to evaluate the consequences of applying periodic adjustments to such reference
points. We contrast this with typical stock assessment models (which use up-to-date “best available” data) linked
to management control rules (for setting quotas) that are revised periodically based on extensive management
strategy evaluations that typically ignore productivity changes.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

29 April, 11:15 (P3-6240)

Scenario based models for predicting stakeholder responses to a changing climate: A casestudy for the Eastern Bering Sea
Anne B. Hollowed1, Nicholas A. Bond2, Alan Haynie1, James N. Ianelli1 and Franz J. Mueter3
1

2
3

NOAA-Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
E-mail: Anne.Hollowed@noaa.gov
University of Washington, Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, Box 354925, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, 315 Lena Point, 17101 Pt. Lena Loop Rd., Juneau, AK, 99801, USA

The North Pacific Research Board and the National Science Foundation are funding a large interdisciplinary
research program to provide forecasts of the impacts of climate change on the Eastern Bering Sea ecosystem. These
forecasts require scenarios of future stakeholder engagement and decision rules to simulate how stakeholders will
respond to a changing environment. A retrospective analysis is conducted to explore how fishers and policy makers
shifted their strategies in response to past changes in climate and societal pressures. Three factors emerged as the
key drivers influencing stakeholders and managers: changes in socio-economic conditions, changes in fisheries
management, and changes in scientific understanding. Stakeholder decision rules are developed to predict
responses to legal or economic constraints governing commercial fishing in the region. Ecosystem scenarios arederived by statistical downscaling climate/ocean forcing for the region from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) model output. The scenarios of stakeholder responses are developed for the following stressors:a) changes in the demand for seafood, b) increasing fuel prices, c) resource partitioning due to species interactions,fisheries interactions, or Marine Spatial Planning. Scenarios of shifting ecosystem conditions will include:a) shifting zoogeographic boundaries due to climate change, and b) shifting reproductive potential due to changing
climate. The trade-offs and risks associated with each stakeholder scenario are discussed. The decision rule
approach provides a foundation for communicating with stakeholders and attempts to initiate discussions of more
complex adaptive and holistic management and modeling approaches.

29 April, 11:30 (P3-6316)

Incorporating climate changes into population dynamic modelling: an individual-basedmodelling approach for the pronghorn spiny lobster (Panulirus penicullatus) in eastern
TaiwanYi-Jay Chang1, Chi-Lu Sun1, Yong Chen2 and Su-Zan Yeh1
1
2

Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 10617, Taiwan, ROC. E-mail: chilu@ntu.edu.tw
School of Marine Science, University of Maine, Orono, ME, 04469, USA

One of the most challenging issues in fisheries management is to evaluate the effects of fishing in the context
of a changing environment. Using the pronghorn spiny lobster (Panulirus penicillatus) fishery in the eastern
coast off Taiwan as an example, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) that is capable of describing
the temperature-dependent life history processes and fishery practices of the spiny lobster. We then used themodel to evaluate potential impacts of climate changes on the estimation of mortality-based biological reference
points for fisheries management. We demonstrate that a warming temperature would increase the yield-per-recruitand egg-per-recruit values, and consequently reduce the risk of overexploitation under the current exploitationlevel. However, there is a high risk of overexploitation in the long term if higher temperatures also induce extra
mortality. An increase in the minimum size regulation (55 mm in carapace length) is proposed as a good candidate
measure to reduce the risk of overexploitation for pessimistically unfavorable environmental conditions. This
study suggests that an explicit incorporation of the relationships between environmental variables and biologicalprocesses can greatly improve fisheries assessment and management.

82

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

29 April, 11:45 (P3-6136)

Sustainable fisheries management of Pacific salmon in a warming climate
Masahide Kaeriyama, Hyunju Seo and Michio J. Kishi
Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato, Hakodate, Hokkaido, 041-8611, Japan
E-mail: salmon@fish.hokudai.ac.jp

At the present, the global warming has positively affected Hokkaido chum salmon by increasing growth at age-1
and survival. However, in the future global warming may decrease the carrying capacity and the area of suitable
habitat for chum salmon in the North Pacific Ocean. To estimate the sustainability of chum salmon to assess
seafood security and ocean ecosystem conservation, we pose 3 questions. 1) How can we use the ocean organisms
as seafood in the future? 2) What do we need for seafood security and ocean ecosystem sustainability in present
and future? 3) How do we establish the sustainable fisheries management based on the ecosystem approach?
To answer these issues, we should account for future limitations in ocean carrying capacity and for expectedfluctuations in the carrying capacity in response to ecosystem changes. More holistic models are needed that
not only address the efficacy of fisheries but also address economic efficiency in the context of the ecosystem.
To implement this change, we need paradigm shift from the traditional fisheries science for only fisheries tothe ecological fisheries science for the protection of marine ecosystems and human food resources in order tobe human well-being in future generation. Adaptive management and the precautionary principle are essential
components needed to establish the sustainable fisheries management based on the ecosystem approach.

Day 4 Plenary83

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Day 4 Plenary Posters
P3-6376

QUEST_Fish: Estimating climate change impacts on global fish production and additional
vulnerabilities to human societies
Manuel Barange1, J. Icarus Allen, Eddie Allison, Marie-Caroline Badjeck, Julia L. Blanchard, Ben Drakeford,
Nicholas K. Dulvy, James Harle, Jason Holt, Robert Holmes, Simon Jennings, Gorka Merino, Graham M. Pillingand Lynda Rodwell
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK. E-mail: m.barange@pml.ac.uk or manuel.barange@gmail.com

1

Climate change is accelerating and is already affecting marine ecosystems and their services. Coupled climate
models and ocean observations indicate that the world’s oceans are warming and patterns in atmospheric variability
are changing, resulting in changes in oceanic stratification, circulation patterns, sea ice and light supply to thesurface ocean. Biological responses to these effects are visible but uncertain. The quantification of direct climate
impacts on the production of fish resources at the global scale, and the risks and vulnerabilities of these impacts ishampered by many issues. QUEST_Fish is a research project funded by the UK Natural Environment ResearchCouncil, and supported by the WorldFish Centre in Malaysia, to address some of these challenges by returning
to first principles and focusing on investigating how climate change would affect the potential production for
global fisheries resources in the future, compared to past and present scenarios, in the absence of exploitation,and to estimate the added vulnerability of these effects on national, regional and global economies. The projectfocuses on the added impacts that climate change is likely to cause, and on the subsequent additional risks andvulnerabilities to human societies. The research is anchored on outputs from Global Climate Models and fromcoupled physical/biological ecosystem dynamic models to predict ecosystem functioning in pre-industrial (1800),
present (2005), near future (2050) and future (2100) scenarios. This poster will introduce the methodologicalmulti-disciplinary framework developed by QUEST_Fish to ascertain the impacts of climate change on fish-basedsocio-ecological systems at different temporal and spatial scales. Specific results of each of the QUEST_Fishworkpackages will be presented by members of the team in separate presentations.

P3-6402

Impact assessment of flooding inudation in the Vietnam coastal zone for marine ecosystems
by CC and SLR
Du Van Toan, Nguyen Van Tien, Vu Thanh Ca, Nguyen Hoang Anh, Nguyen Hai Anh, Vu Thi Hien and Tran The Anh
Department of Marine Resources Management and CC, Research Institute for management of Sea and Islands, Vietnam Administration ofSeas and Islands, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, 83 Nguyen Chi Thanh Rd., Hanoi, Vietnam
E-mail: duvantoan@gmail.com

This presentation will describe a simulation model for estimating flooding in the coastal regions of Vietnam
resulting from Sea Level Rise and Climate Change. Results from simulated flood trajectories for Vinh Quang
Commune, Tien Lang district, Hai Phong, derived from storm conditions and the climate change are presented.
The simulations are used to assess the impact of flooding on marine ecosystems. Local authorities in the Vinh
Quang Commune can use the simulations for land use planning in regions outside the dike and to establish
sustainable strategies for use of natural resources while protecting mangroves, and reducing damage caused byclimate change and Sea Level Rise in the future.
Scenarios such as climate change and sea level rise associated with storms show that in the Vinh Quang commune
region flooding will mainly occur outside the dike area. This region supports aquaculture and mangrove forestsand has a high economic value and ecological value. Thus the damage caused by flooding is significant. For
example the 2005 Damrey storm caused flooding and damage to shrimp harvest that equated to 0.6 million USD.

84

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

P3-6411 (Cancelled)

Albacore (Thunnus alalunga) distribution versus SST in the Indian Ocean based on 19822008 log reports of Taiwaneses longliners
Feng-Chen Chang1 and Shean-Ya Yeh2
1
2

Overseas Fisheries Development Council, Taipei 106, Taiwan, ROC. E-mail: fengchen@ofdc.org.tw
Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taipei 106, Taiwan, ROC

For the last four decades, fishing fleets from Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea have been actively fishing for tunas
in the Indian Ocean. Although albacore is one of the major commercially important tunas resources in the Indian
Ocean, research endeavors on this species is still not sufficient. Taiwanese catch of Indian albacore fluctuatedmainly between 5,000 mt to 26,000 mt, comprising about 60% of the total Indian albacore catch by all fishingcountries. As one of the major fishing nations which utilized this resource, it is equally our responsibility toacquire the catch and effort statistics for the purpose of monitoring its status.
It is well-believed that spatio-temporal indicators measured by fishing intensity and physical disturbance are thetwo major driving forces shaping the distribution of Indian albacore stock. Based on GIS with SST data set and thecatch and effort statistics compiled from 1982-2008 Taiwanese log reports of longliners fished in the Indian Ocean,an attempt of applying GAM models with by month and by 5° grid cell of resolutions was carried out mainly for the
purpose of elucidating probable correlations between albacore distribution versus fishing activity and SST.

P3-6414

An approach to an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the Gulf of Mexico
Michael J. Schirripa1, Rebecca J. Allee2, Russell H. Beard3, Stephanie Oakes4, Bonnie J. Ponwith1, Rebecca
Shuford4 and Roger J. Zimmerman5
1

2
3

4
5

NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, 75 Virginia Beach Dr., Miami, FL, 33149, USA
E-mail: Michael.Schirripa@noaa.gov
NOAA, Gulf Coast Service Center Bldg. 1100, Rm. 232, Stennis Space Center, MS, USA
NOAA, National Oceanographic Data Center, NOAA/NESDIS E/OC1, SSMC3, 4th Floor, 1315 East-West Hwy, Silver Spring, MD,
20910-3282, USA
NOAA, Office of Science and Technology, Marine Ecosystems Divions, 1315 East-West Hwy, Silver Spring, MD, 20910-3282, USA
NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Southeast Fisheries Science Center, 4700 Ave. U, Galveston, TX, 77551, USA

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has recently moved towards an
Ecosystem Approach to Management for its eight Large Marine Ecosystems (LME). Towards this end, NOAA
is initiating an Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) effort within the Gulf of Mexico LME, a tropical/subtropical, partially isolated body of water that encompasses several international coastlines and a growing humanpopulation. An IEA is a synthesis and quantitative analysis of information on relevant physical, chemical,
ecological and human processes in relation to specified ecosystem management objectives. The primary goal of
our IEA is to unify the critical components of the ecosystem into one integrated model, such as Atlantis or EcosimEcopath, and evaluate trade-offs in resource utilization between the components using a management strategy
evaluation framework. We are currently undertaking an IEA for the Gulf of Mexico by laying the groundwork
for a single unified data management system which incorporates and combines the catalog and web service
functions of EcoWatch and Environmental Research Division’s Data Access Program (ERDDAP). Our efforts
to date are focusing on creating a sound database structure that will serve as the basis for several individual85

Day 4 Plenary

Results so far obtained showed that the effect of SST factor was statistically significant in the GAM modeled inpresent study. Although albacore seems to appear over rather broad range of SST, the majority of the data showedthat it prefers to inhabit in the temperate waters of 14-20°C SST. Further, albacore CPUE indicator appeared
an increase trend with concurrent declining CPUE indicators of yellowfin tuna and swordfish resources. Morefactors, such as fishing operational specifications and geographical pattern of fishing intensity, will be added tothe model for further analyses.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
IEAs within the overall LME, each addressing specific management questions. IEA management objectives
will involve the collection of new data, and rely on making the best use of data that already exists in numerous,
distributed databases housed at government agencies, academic institutions, and non-governmental organizations.
These distributed data will be discoverable through NOAA’s EcoWatch catalog and ERDDAP web services bothcurrently in operation.

86

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

A1 Oral Presentations
27 April, 14:35 (A1-6050), Invited

Examples of using global climate models for regional marine ecosystem projection
Muyin Wang1, James E. Overland2 and Nicholas A. Bond1
1

2

Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-355672, USA
E-mail: Muyin.wang@noaa.gov
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA

Climate projections at regional scales are in increased demand from governments, management agencies and otherstakeholders. While Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide credible quantitative
estimates of future climate at continental scales and above, the projections at regional scales have larger spreadand uncertainty. Individual model performance varies in different regions, on different variables, and for different
evaluation metrics. Taking the Arctic, Chukchi Sea, Barents and Bering Seas as examples we demonstrate that thecore of the procedure for selecting a useful subset of models for regional projections is a comparative evaluation
based on observational constraints at both the continental and regional level. Examples of sea-ice, surface airtemperature, sea surface temperature projection for selected regions are used to illustrate the strategy, and the
projections will be provided based the selected sub-set models under different emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, andB1). The outputs from these climate models also provide necessary information for regional dynamical/statistical
downscaling, which can give quantitative estimate of potential impact of climate change on fish and fisheries.
Model evaluation/selection must be an important aspect of the next IPCC report (AR5).

27 April, 15:00 (A1-6062), Invited

Shelf seas ecosystems: Past, present and future states
J. Icarus Allen
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK. E-mail: jia@pml.ac.uk

87

A1

Shelf seas ecosystems respond to many drivers: climatic forcing impacting on temperature, stratification andcirculations, ocean acidification and direct anthropogenic such as nutrient inputs and fishing. The only tools wehave to address non-linear combinations of driver impacts in a dynamic environment are numerical simulation
models, which include dynamic feedbacks. Because of issues of resolution and process representation, the present
the generation of Ocean-Atmosphere-GCMs are a long way off providing credible predictions in coastal/shelfseas, and hence of limited value for informing policy decisions in these regions. Therefore a regional downscaling
approach is required. Currently we have the ability to simulate the past and future response of the planktonic
shelf seas ecosystems to direct climate drivers and nutrient inputs on regional spatial scales and multi-decadal
timescales and use these to drive models of fish stocks; appropriate results will be presented illustrated with
examples from the GCOMS, MEECE and QUEST-FISH projects. The following issues are discussed and where;
the choice of model structure, scaling processes from physiology to functional types to fish, the ecosystem model
sensitivity to changes in the physical environment, new methods for the evaluation and comparison of ecosystemand biogeochemistry models and the quantification of simulation uncertainty.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 15:25 (A1-6342)

Kuroshio path variation studied by a nested-grid OGCM
Masao Kurogi1, Hiroyasu Hasumi2 and Yukio Tanaka1
1
2

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Center for Climate System Research, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-8568, Japan

It is important to predict the Kuroshio path variation under future climate change since the path strongly affects
fisheries. Although an eddy-resolving model is needed for realistic simulation of this variation, a global eddyresolving ocean model requires a huge amount of computer resources. Instead, we are developing a two-way
nested-grid ocean model based on COCO (CCSR Ocean Component Model). This model enables us to realize
high performance simulations while using less computational resources. As the first step for this development, an
eddy-resolving model around Japan is nested into a North Pacific model and response of Kuroshio path variation
is examined relative to changing the amplitude of surface wind forcing. The model is integrated over 30 years
with CORE normal year forcing. For normal or 10% weaker wind forcing, both straight and meandering paths
alternatively appear. In these cases, path transition is supposed to occur in a multiple equilibrium regime. On theother hand, for 10% stronger wind forcing, only the straight path appears. In this case, the magnitude of current
velocity is considered to exceed the range where a stable meandering path can exist.

27 April, 15:40 (A1-6190)

Predicting impacts of climate change on primary production in coastal-ocean regions
Robert Holmes1, James Harle2, J. Icarus Allen1, Jason Holt2 and Manuel Barange112Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK. Email: robe1@pml.ac.uk
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, Joseph Proudman Bldg., 6 Brownlow St., Liverpool, L3 5DA, UK

A key challenge in predicting the impact of a changing climate on primary production is the reduction of Ocean General
Circulation Model (OGCM) output to scales relevant to coastal marine ecosystems. Computational restraints only
allow OGCMs to be run with coarse resolution and, if ecosystem models are used, they tend to be highly simplified.
In coastal regions, therefore, mesoscale features are not resolved and processes important to ecosystem function(e.g. riverine nutrient input and benthic recycling) are omitted. The QUEST-Fish project addresses this problem
by utilising the Global Coastal Ocean Modelling System (GCOMS); a high-resolution, physical/ecosystem modelof the world’s coastal ocean, based on the established POLCOMS-ERSEM model. GCOMS has grid-spacing of
0.1°, which is eddy-resolving, and many of the processes crucial to shelf sea production are included. The model
was run for years 1989-2001 with re-analysis forcing to provide a realistic simulation for comparison with observed
data. Four 13-year runs were then completed with forcing from the IPSL-CM4 OGCM. The 4 runs represent preindustrial, present-day, near-future (2050), and far-future (2100) conditions, with the future conditions based on the
SRES A1b “business as usual” emissions scenario. Results and analysis of ecosystem model output from a selectionof the QUEST-Fish domains are presented, including estimates of model skill through comparison with satellitedata, and analysis of the impact of climate change on primary production predicted by the model.

27 April, 15:55 (A1-6294)

Potential climate change impacts on contrasting shelf sea regions: Atmospheric andoceanic impacts vs. tidal and seasonal constraints
Jason Holt1, James Harle1, Robert Holmes2 and J. Icarus Allen2
1
2

Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory, 6 Brownlow St., Liverpool L3 5DA, UK. E-mail: jholt@pol.ac.uk
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK

We investigate the relative impacts of global climate change on different shelf sea types (e.g. Broad tidally mixed,
narrow upwelling, in tropical and subpolar zones). The Global Coastal Ocean Modelling System (GCOMS; Holtet al., 2009: Proc. Roy. Soc. A:doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0210.) enables us to simulate any shelf sea region aroundthe world in a consistent and inter-comparable way. GCOMS uses the coupled regional hydrodynamic-ecosystemmodel POLCOMS-ERSEM, one-way nested in a global ocean general circulation model. With a typical resolutionof 7km and 40 vertical (terrain following) levels, GCOMS provides an effective tool for dynamical downscaling of88

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
climate change simulations to investigate impacts in shelf sea/coastal regions. In stimulations run for the QUESTFISH project, GCOMS is forced by a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM (IPSL-CM4, with the SRESA1B emissions
scenario). We investigate the hypothesis that shelf seas where comparatively stable astronomical cycles dominate(specifically seasonal and tidal cycles) experience climate change impacts in a quantitatively and qualitatively
different fashion to those where other oceanic/atmospheric influences dominate. We focus on stratification, mixed
layer depth and ocean-shelf coupling, and consequent nutrient resupply and primary production. Climate change
stimulations are guided by reanalysis forced stimulations and contemporary ocean data sets. Twelve regions
are considered, which cover twenty Large Marine Ecosystems that account for more the 60% of the global fish
catch. Results from these simulations are used in other components of QUEST-FISH to drive dynamic models ofcommunity size spectra to estimate the impacts of climate change on the potential for fish production in the absenceof exploitation.

27 April, 16:30 (A1-6107)

Downscaling climate simulations in the North Pacific Ocean using a fully coupled multiscale model
Enrique N. Curchitser1, William Large2, Kate Hedström3 and Jon Wolf2
1

2
3

Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd., New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA
E-mail: enrique@marine.rutgers.edu
National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Dr., Boulder, CO, 80305, USA
Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 909 Koyukuk Dr., Suite 105, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA

As the models used for the IPCC assessments keep evolving, interest is rising in the impacts of climate change
on regional scales. Because of the substantial cost of running existing climate models, critical processes, suchas mesoscale eddy induced variability and coastal upwelling are either parameterized, or simply not resolved.
There are several studies using one-way downscaling of climate models to particular regions, though those studies
do not permit important feedbacks in the climate system, limiting their use for future projections. In this paper
we present a fully coupled multi-scale climate model based on the NCAR CCSM global model and the ROMS
regional ocean model. We will show that features, such as coastal upwelling, produced by the higher-resolution
model have significant impacts on the global climate system.

A1

27 April, 16:45 (A1-6293)

Dynamical downscaling from the basin scale to submesoscale with a triply nested ocean
model
Hiroshi Kuroda, Takashi Setou, Manabu Shimizu and Kazuhiro Aoki
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Kanagawa, 236-8648, Japan
E-mail: kurocan@affrc.go.jp

To study the interactions of fisheries biology between open-ocean and continental shelf waters, we have developeda triply nested ocean model based on the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). This strategy is essential tosimulate the shelf circulation around Japan, where the shelf width is sufficiently narrow (<50km) for the offshore
oceanic disturbances to seriously affect the shelf water. In this presentation we introduce our downscaling systemand discuss several problems for the application of this system to the global-warming state. Our system consistsof a 1/2-degree eddy-permitting model covering the whole of the North Pacific, a 1/10-degree eddy-resolving
model around Japan, and a 1/50-degree shelf model targeting the inshore part of the Kuroshio. These models
are connected by one-way nesting techniques and are presently driven by climatological monthly mean forcings
under the non-global warming state. It is confirmed that the 1/2-, 1/10- and 1/50-degree models can successfully
reproduce typical basin-scale, mesoscale, and submesoscale variabilities in the ocean, respectively. Particularly
focusing on the submesoscale variability simulated by the triply nested 1/50-degree model, we can recognize
several interactions between the northern front of the Kuroshio and irregular topography south of Japan. It
is shown that the Kuroshio frontal disturbance is generated mainly near the cusp (i.e., the tip of a cape), andpropagates as a frontal wave to the downstream region along the coast. A crest of the frontal waves then encounters
the subsequent cusp in the downstream region, so that warm oceanic water spreads intermittently over the shelfregion.

89

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 17:00 (A1-6038)

Climatic structural stability of the Kuroshio Extension jet and catastrophe theory
Talgat R. Kilmatov1,2 and Elena V. Dmitrieva2
1
2

Pacific State University of Economics (PSUE), 19 Okeansky St., Vladivostok, 690091, Russia. E-mail: talgat_k@mail.ru
V.I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute (POI), FEB RAS, 43 Baltiyskaya St., Vladivostok, 690041, Russia
E-mail: e_dmitrieva@poi.dvo.ru

The slow accumulation of thermodynamic parameters owing to climatic trends can cause a fast structural instabilityof ocean structures. The application of catastrophe theory to research the instability of the ocean jet currents isshown. The conservation energy equations applicable to a zonal jet current are constructed where the jet width isa local control parameter. An analysis of the equations shows that a bifurcation is created owing to the gradient
reduction of the water density across the current. The direct variational method based on minimum entropy
production as applied to an ocean jet current is shown. The model shows that the cross-jet difference in water
density is the important determining parameter on the existence of the jet current. There is a critical cross gradientin density when the current is not a jet current anymore. Using the HadSST data set for the North Pacific, the time
variability of the non-uniformity temperature for the last 60 years (1948-2007) is analysed. The temperature of
the subarctic zone increases more than the SST in the subtropical zone as a result of climatic changes. A roughcomparison of the SST climatic trends and energy and variational modeling shows that it is possible to destroy the
structure of the Kuroshio Extension as a jet current as the north-south difference between the subarctic – subtopic
water temperatures (densities) is decreased.

27 April, 17:15 (A1-6375)

Simulated modes of biophysical variability on the Bering Sea shelf
Albert J. Hermann1, Kerim Aydin2, Nicholas A. Bond1, Wei Cheng1, Enrique N. Curchitser3, Georgina A. Gibson4,
Kate Hedström5, Ivonne Ortiz2, Muyin Wang1 and Phyllis J. Stabeno6
1

2
3
4
5
6

Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
E-mail: albert.j.hermann@noaa.gov
Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA/NMFS, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA
International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA
Ocean Environment Research Division, NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA

The continental shelf of the Bering Sea is one of the most productive regions of the global ocean. One major
element of the Bering Ecosystem Study/Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research Program (BEST-BSIERP)
entails the downscaling of IPCC projections of global climate change to the regional physics and biology of theBering Sea. These regional projections are derived using coupled physical, nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton(NPZ), and fish models, to better capture the nonlinear effects of climate change as they cascade among the trophic
levels of the ecosystem. Our 3D hydrodynamic model is based on the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS),
and includes both ice and tides. The embedded NPZ model includes multiple size classes of phytoplankton andzooplankton, as well as significant fish prey such as euphausiids. The higher tropic level model (FEAST) includes~50 length classes each of pollock, cod, and arrowtooth flounder, with allometric relationships connecting fish
size to food preference. Strong coupling among these models ensures the inclusion of both bottom-up and topdown effects in restructuring the ecosystem. Of special interest are the emergent properties of these coupledsimulations, and how they compare with the observed system. In this presentation we use Empirical Orthogonal
Functions to examine the covariance structure of predicted physical-biological modes from the coupled models,with a particular emphasis on pelagic vs. benthic food webs on the Bering Sea shelf, and their dependence on ice
cover.

90

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 17:30 (A1-6264)

Tidal current effects on the simulation of ocean circulation by theoretical and numericalanalyses
Huaming Yu1,2, Thomas Pohlmann2, Xianwen Bao1 and Xueen Chen1
1

2

College of Physical and Environmental Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Songling Rd. 238, Qingdao, 266100, PR China.
E-mail: huamingyu@gmail.com
Institute of Oceanography, Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hamburg, Bundesstr. 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany

Ocean circulation plays an important role in the climate system and its accuracy is a prerequisite for accurately
forecasting the climate. In addition, the ubiquitously existing tidal currents in the global ocean interact intensively
with the ocean circulation, especially in the marginal seas where tidal residual currents are significant. However,neither present-day ocean circulation nor tidal models have taken these interactions into account, rather treatingthem separately, due to their temporal and spatial scale differences. In this work, mechanisms of the interaction
between tidal current and ocean circulation are analyzed theoretically by deriving the mechanical energy equationfrom the original momentum equations with tide-generating forcing. Furthermore, estimates of the mean wintercirculation are obtained by a three-dimensional nonlinear numerical finite volume Global Ocean Circulation andTide Model (GOCTM), which has attained high spatial resolution in the East China Sea using unstructured grids.
The effects of the tides, stratification and wind are taken into account in the simulations. And quantitative estimatesof the contributions of these three dominant components to the circulation are provided through a number ofsystematic numerical experiments. Estimates of nonlinear interactions, including those arising from the advection
term and dispersion term, between tidal currents and circulation are also derived from an energy aspect. The
analysis results show that tides appear to be the dominant mechanism that causes nonlinear interactions between
the flow components. The work is inspiring ideas to create tidal parametric schemes for ocean circulation models.

27 April, 17:45 (A1-6017)

The Black Sea zooplankton-climate connection: A multi-scale approach and new methods
Alexandra V. Temnykh, Yuriy N. Tokarev and Viktor V. Melnikov
Institute of Biology of the Southern Seas, NAS of Ukraine, 2, Nakhimov Ave., Sevastopol, Ukraine. E-mail: atemnykh@rambler.ru

91

A1

Existing paradigm of the Black Sea zooplankton changes is based on essential simplification of properties ofthe biological components: all changes are explained mainly by influence of new invaders. As a result of thissimplification, the main essence of climatic changes occurring in the Black Sea ecosystem is often lost. In orderto overcome this problem we show that it is necessary to examine multiscale processes at the different levels
that they influence distribution and species - size structure of zooplankton. Some examples are the influence ofwind, Langmuir circulations, Upper Isothermal Layer development, Cold Intermediate Layer development andthe dynamics of the vertical position of the lower boundary of zooplankton habitat. It is shown, that structure of
the water mass can determine habitat conditions for the cold water species of zooplankton in the Black Sea. A new
multi-net Cassette Planktonometer was designed to assist research into these processes. The device can collect 10
zoo- and ichthyoplankton samples within thin layers using horizontal, sine or oblique tows and has the capabilityof taking successive samples. Preliminary research results are described.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 18:00 (A1-6069)

Toward a regional climate model for the British Columbia continental shelf
Michael Foreman1, Badal Pal2, William Merryfield2, Diane Masson1 and John Morrison1
1

2

Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, BC, V8L 4B2, Canada
E-mail: mike.foreman@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3065 Stn CSC, Victoria,
BC, V8W 3V6, Canada

Though statistical downscaling has been widely used to interpolate results from global climate models to specificoceanic locations, the resultant fields can be inaccurate if those models are unable to represent important mesoscale features and processes. This is certainly the case for the waters off British Columbia where mountainous
terrain and complicated coastlines and bathymetry combine with seasonally varying winds to produce sub-regionsthat have high biological productivity in the summer and that export larvae and nutrients offshore in the winter.
In order to better understand how these processes may change in the future, a regional climate model is being
developed for the continental shelf waters off British Columbia. This model will initially take its atmosphericforcing from one or more regional, atmosphere-only, climate models (either the Canadian Regional Climate Modelor the University of Washington regional climate model) and have its coastal freshwater discharges estimatedfrom downscaled precipitation and watershed models. Initial and lateral boundary conditions for salinity andtemperature will be computed as downscaled anomalies from global models. In this presentation, we will describe
progress in the development of this model with particular attention given to analyses of the winds that will be used
to force it.

27 April, 18:15 (A1-6393)

Evaluation of potential limitations for statistical downscaling in the Far-Eastern Seas
Elena I. Ustinova
Pacific Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (TINRO-Center), 4 Shevchenko Alley, Vladivostok, 690950, Russia
E-mail: eustinova@mail.ru

In this study several potential limitations for statistical downscaling in the Far-Eastern Seas, such as data problems,
specifying “sub-grid” physical processes and instabilities in the relationships between the regional characteristics
and large-scale parameters, are analyzed. Although multi-year data on ice cover, air and water temperature frommeteorological stations are the longest time series of relatively regular and homogeneous information for the Seas,
the number of observations is still short. Moreover, assessing the changes in large-scale atmospheric patterns andtheir relationships to regional conditions in the Far-Eastern Seas remains a difficult task owing to the coarsenessof the meteorological station network along the Russian continental coast, even for a standard variable such as
air temperature. Whereas statistical downscaling assumes that the relationships between predictors (large-scalevariables) and predictands (small-scale variables) do not vary under climate change conditions, the relationships
between regional characteristics (mainly sea ice coverage, air and water temperature in the Far-Eastern Seas) andlarge-scale climatic indices are unstable in a number of cases. In addition, the quasi-steady state nature of theclimatic system (from one regime shift to other) can be broken locally in the Far-Eastern Seas because of moving
climatic atmospheric and oceanic fronts, trajectories of cyclones and other boundary phenomena connected withgeographical position of the Seas. The method of atmospheric circulation typing (for example, created by Glebova
for Far-Eastern Seas in 1999) allows one to decrease some limitations in these regression models. However, thismethod requires the additional task of classifying.

92

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

A1 PosterA1-6347

Downscaling global climate predictions for the North Sea - A discussion about quality
Anne D. Sandvik, Solfrid Sætre Hjøllo and Anne Britt Sandø
Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes, Bergen, 5817, Norway. E-mail: anne.sandvik@imr.no

The North Sea is a shallow shelf sea situated between Norway, the British Isles and the European continent, where
bottom-up forcing of the marine ecosystems has been shown to be important. It is therefore of crucial importanceto have a high quality representation of the physical environment and its variability for all marine climate effectstudies. It is well known that there can be both huge seasonal and substantial inter-annual variations as well as
long term oscillations with modest amplitudes. The consensus about the mean global features expected in the 21th
century is summarized in the 4th assessment report from IPCC, but for high resolution, future climate estimates ofhydrography and currents, coarse scale global climate predictions need to be downscaled. Since the uncertainty
in all climate predictions are unknown and the uncertainty is assumed to increase from the global to the regional
scale, a comparative study between existing regional downscaling of selected GCMs has been performed to ensurehigh quality data for further downscaling. For the lateral boundary conditions, datasets from the control runs of
three global coupled models (the BCM, the GISS AOM and the NCAR CCSM3.0.) which have been downscaled
using the ROMS model, are analyzed to find the best downscaled dataset for our purposes. The focus will be on
North Sea variability and extreme years.

A1

93

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

A2 Oral Presentations: Day 1, April 26
26 April, 14:35 (A2-6085), Invited

Oxygen- and capacity-limitation of thermal tolerance: A matrix for integrating climaterelated stressor effects in marine ecosystems
Hans-O. Pörtner
Integrative Ecophysiology, Alfred-Wegener Institute, Am Handelshafen 12, Bremerhaven, 27570, Germany
E-mail: Hans.Poertner@awi.de

The concept of oxygen and capacity dependent thermal tolerance in aquatic ectotherms has successfully explained
climate-induced effects of rising temperatures on species abundance in the field. Oxygen supply to tissues andthe resulting aerobic performance characters thus form a primary link between organismal fitness and its role andfunctioning at ecosystem level. The thermal window of performance in water breathers matches their windowof aerobic scope. Loss of performance reflects the earliest level of thermal stress, caused by hypoxemia and theprogressive mismatch of oxygen supply and demand at the borders of the thermal envelope. Oxygen deficiency
elicits transition to passive tolerance and associated systemic and cellular stress signals like hormonal responses oroxidative stress as well as the use of protection mechanisms like heat shock proteins at thermal extremes. Thermal
acclimatization between seasons or adaptation to a climate regime involves shifting thermal windows and adjusting
window widths. The need to specialize on a limited temperature range results from temperature dependent tradeoffs at several hierarchical levels, from molecular structure to whole organism functioning and may also support
maximized energy efficiency. Various environmental factors like CO2 (ocean acidification) or hypoxia interact
with these principal relationships. Existing knowledge suggests that these factors elicit metabolic depression
supporting passive tolerance to thermal extremes. However, they also exacerbate hypoxemia causing a narrowingof thermal performance windows and leading the organism earlier to the limits of its thermal acclimation capacity.
The conceptual analysis suggests that the relationships between energy turnover, the capacities of activity andother functions and the width of thermal windows may lead to an integrative understanding of specialization
on climate and, as a thermal matrix, of sensitivity to climate change and the factors involved. Such functional
relationships might also relate to climate-induced changes in species interactions and thus, community responses
at the ecosystem level.

26 April, 15:00 (A2-6099), Invited

Climate effects on maturation and spawning of Atlantic cod and implications for fisheries
Olav Sigurd Kjesbu1, Jon Egil Skjæraasen2, David Righton3, Kathrine Michalsen1, Christian Jørgensen2, AndersFrugård Opdal2 and Peter R. Witthames4
1

3
4Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870, Bergen, N-5817, Norway. E-mail: olav.kjesbu@imr.no
Department of Biology, University of Bergen, N-5020, Norway
Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Pakefield Rd., Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR330HT, UK
Fecund Fish Consultancy, 40 Plumtrees, Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR32 3JH, UK

A2

2

The timing and success of spawning in marine fish is of fundamental importance to population persistence,
distribution and, for commercial species, sustainability. Their physiological processes of reproduction are
regulated, in part, by water temperature, and therefore changes in marine climate may have dramatic effects upon
spawning performance. Using adult Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as a case study, we examined the links between
water temperature, body size, vitellogenesis and spawning time by conducting extensive laboratory and fieldstudies. Our experiments documented that vitellogenesis generally starts at the autumnal equinox, and that oocyte
growth and investment is greater in cod held at warmer temperatures. Furthermore, spawning occurred earlier
when oocyte growth was more rapid. Large females spawned earlier than smaller females at warmer temperature
but this effect vanished at colder temperature. The experimental results were confirmed by measurements ofoocyte growth collected from wild caught cod in northern (Barents Sea) and southern (Irish and North Seas)

95

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
populations. A model of oocyte maturation was successfully developed to explain the results. This model was
consistent with published egg production curves of cod from the Barents Sea, North and Irish Seas, consideringin situ temperatures recorded by individual data-storage tags on cod in those areas. These findings haveconsiderable relevance for future studies of fish recruitment in relation to climate change and applied harvesting
strategies on spawning populations.

26 April, 15:15 (A2-6153)

An experimental assessment of effects of raised pCO2 on early-larval Antarctic krill
So Kawaguchi1, Haruko Kurihara2, Robert King1, Lillian Hale3, Thomas Berli3, James Robinson3, Patti Virtue3,
Stephen Nicol1 and Atsushi Ishimatsu41
2
3
4Australian Antarctic Division, Kinsgston, TAS, 7050, Australia. E-mail: So.Kawaguchi@aad.gov.au
University of Ryukyus, Okinawa, 903-0213, Japan
University of Tasmania, Sandy Bay, TAS, 7005, Australia
Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, 851-2213, JapanThe Southern Ocean is thought to be one of the earliest marine ecosystems to be affected by ocean acidification
because of the higher solubility of CO2 in colder waters and the upwelling of high CO2 deep seawater. Most studies
on the effects of CO2 and acidification to date concern aragonite shell forming species (e.g. epi-pelagic planktonic
pteropod molluscs, foraminifera, some benthic invertebrates). Antarctic krill is known as the keystone species of
the Southern Ocean ecosystem and represents the largest fishery species in the Southern Ocean and the economic
interest in krill continues to increase. However, despite the importance of krill, the effect of elevated CO2 on thisspecies has never been investigated. Our preliminary experimental assessment of raised pCO2 on early-larval
krill was unable to detect any significant effects up to 1000matm, but did reveal detrimental impact at 2000 matm
pCO2. Krill display extensive ontogenetic vertical migration during their early larval stage down to ~1000m depth
where seawater pCO2 is already similar to or above the projected atmospheric pCO2 for year 2100 (A1FI scenario).
Krill in early larval stages are perhaps well adapted to the pCO2 range they experience during development, buthighly sensitive to higher levels. We believe this finding stands as an important recommendation for the use of
projected pCO2 levels prevailing in organisms’ habitat depth according to the phases of their life history rather
than simply adopting future atmospheric values, in order to better predict CO2 impacts on vertically migrating
species such as krill.

26 April, 15:30 (A2-6090)

Fish production in coastal habitats under global warming: Spatio-temporal variability inearly growth of a dominant species, black rockfish, in seagrass beds
Jun Shoji, Masakazu Hori, Yasuhiro Kamimura, Ken-ichiro Mizuno and Shun-ichi Toshito
Takehara Fisheries Research Laboratory, Hiroshima University, 5-8-1 Minato-machi, Takehra, Hiroshima 725-0024, Japan
E-mail: jshoji@hiroshima-u.ac.jp

Seagrass beds have been considered to produce almost the highest values of annual ecosystem services among theworld’s ecosystems. Black rockfish Sebastes inermis is one of the most dominant components of the fish fauna
within seagrass beds in temperate waters of the western North Pacific. Larval and juvenile rockfish immigrate
into seagrass beds in early March at a total length of about 20 mm and reach to 80 mm in summer. In order toestimate the possible effects of global warming on fish production within seagrass beds, growth of larval andjuvenile rockfish was examined at a variety of temperatures both under laboratory and natural conditions. Otolithsof wild-caught larvae and juveniles were processed for estimation of cohort-specific growth (G) and mortality(M) coefficients and for back-calculation of growth trajectories of individual fish. Under laboratory conditions,effects of temperatures on growth, gastric evacuation rate and daily ration during the post-settlement period were
examined at 10-20°C. Mean growth rate of the larval and juvenile rockfish was highest at about 14°C. Daily ration
was about 20% body weight at all temperatures tested and the net growth efficiency was highest at 16°C. Basedon the possible increase in water temperature (2 to 3°C by 2095), it is plausible to expect a reduction in juvenile
fish production within the coastal habitats and/or a northward shift in the distribution of rockfish. Preliminary
analysis of possible growth impacts of reduced photoperiod that larval and juvenile rockfish would experience at
higher latitudes was also conducted.

96

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 15:45 (A2-6020)

The Mediterranean Sea as a trap for endemic fishes facing climate change
Frida Ben Rais Lasram1, Francois Guilhaumon2, Samuel Somot3, Wilfried Thuiller4 and David Mouillot2
1

2

3
4

Laboratoire Ecosystèmes et Ressources Aquatiques UR03AGRO1, Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, 43 Ave. Charles Nicolle,
1082 Tunis, Tunisia. E-mail: frida.lasram@gmail.com
Laboratoire Ecosystèmes Lagunaires UMR 5119, Université Montpellier 2, cc 093, Place E. Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier Cedex 5,
FranceMétéo-France, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, 42 Ave. Gaspard Coriolis, 31057, Toulouse Cedex, France
Laboratoire Ecologie Alpine, UMR 5553, Université J. Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France

The Mediterranean Sea is a hotspot of biodiversity where endemic fish species are expected to be significantly
influenced by climate change. However, predictions of geographical range extensions or contractions have notyet been thoroughly investigated. Here, we projected the potential future climatic niches of 75 Mediterranean
endemic fish species based on a climate change scenario implemented using the Mediterranean model OPAMED8and a multi-model inference including uncertainty. Model results indicated that low prevalence species inhabiting
cold waters were the first to undergo a high probability of extinction by the middle of the 21st century followedby high prevalence species by the end of the century. In species that declined, projections for 2041-2060 revealed
that 75% would be classified on the IUCN Red List while 20% were projected to become extinct. For 2070-2099,
the IUCN Red List was expected to contain 90% of species with a reduced geographic range, out of which 33%
were projected to be extinct. By the middle of the century, the coldest areas of the Mediterranean (Adriatic Sea
and Gulf of Lion) would act as a refuge for cold-water species but, by the end of the century, such areas would
act as a trap, driving them towards extinction. In contrast, thermophilic species were projected to colonize newareas. As a result, high rates of species turnover were expected. Marine protected areas may mitigate the speedof this turnover (by reducing fishing pressure) however, the consequences of changes in species assemblages on
ecosystem functioning remain challenging to predict.

26 April, 16:20 (A2-6362), Invited

How has climate change impacted marine food-webs in the past, and how might wepredict changes in the future?
John K. Pinnegar1, Georg Engelhard1, Julia L. Blanchard1, Joe Scutt-Phillips1 and William L. Cheung2
12

Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS), Pakefield Rd., Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR33 0HT, UK
E-mail: john.pinnegar@cefas.co.uk
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

In this talk we describe changes that have occurred in the NE Atlantic ecosystem over the past 100 years, and we
attempt to discern whether or not these changes have been driven primarily by long-term climate variability or byother factors such as intensive fishing pressure and/or habitat modification. We demonstrate substantial shifts inthe distribution of key commercial fish stocks in the North Sea, as well as changes in food-webs, as indicated by a
100 year time series of fish diet data. We consider how predator-prey overlap may have changed over the past 30
years, and how such changes might continue in the future, as a consequence of climate change and shifting species
distribution patterns. We discuss techniques that are available to try to predict indirect food-web implications ofclimate change. These techniques are applied to a number of different case-study regions in northern Europe andin southern Africa.

97

A2

Aquatic food-webs can be incredibly complex and dynamic, with species interactions occurring at a range of
temporal and spatial scales, from fleeting transient predation events to large-scale, multi-trophic level cascadeeffects. Different species tend to react to climate change in different ways, with climate affecting growth,
reproductive success, mortality, spatial distribution, etc. Consequently it can be very difficult to predict how afood-web might look in the future.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 16:45 (A2-6109)

The effects of fish life histories on time scales of response to environmental changeLouis W. Botsford1, Matthew D. Holland2, Alan Hastings, Michael J. Fogarty3, Francis Juanes4 and Hui-Yu Wang412
34

Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, CA, USA. E-mail: lwbotsford@ucdavis.edu
Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA, USA
National Marine Fisheries Service, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Department of Natural Resources Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA

The responses of age-structured fish populations to changes in their environment depend on age-dependent
vital rates and characteristics of density-dependent recruitment, in addition to the environmental signals. Here
we describe those responses in terms of (1) population sensitivities to different time scales of environmental
variability and (2) the potential for population collapse. Population sensitivity to various time scales differs
depending on whether the environment affects survival or development rates. Fishing and long-term declines
in survival precondition populations to greater variability. The time scales of population variability also dependon the specific population observation (e.g., whether recruitment or abundance). Understanding the basis forthese responses will be useful in projecting the effects of projected changes in the physical environment. We will
illustrate these differences with examples from cod and salmon.

26 April, 17:00 (A2-6080)

Disentangling the effects of fisheries and climate change on fish communities
Remment ter Hofstede and Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp
IMARES (Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies), P.O. Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands
E-mail: remment.terhofstede@wur.nl

Fish communities are dynamic and their structure is known to change over time. Traditionally these changes
were considered to be fisheries-induced, but recently global warming is often suggested to affect the distribution,
abundance, and assemblage composition of fish. However, to disentangle the effects caused by either fisheries
or climate change seems to be close to impossible since both aspects in general occur at the same time. In ourstudy we separate fisheries effects from climate change by comparing survey catch data from the southern NorthSea during periods, characterised by i) low fishing effort during a cold period (1903-1909), ii) low fishing effort
during a warm period (1950-1956), iii) high fishing effort during a cold period (1977-1983), and iv) high fishingpressure during a warm period (2002-2008).
We hypothesize that species richness of fish is higher during warm periods than cold periods due to an increase in
Lusitanian (warm-favouring) species, and lower during periods of high fishing pressure due to a decrease in large(targeted) Boreal species.

98Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 17:15 (A2-6145)

Comparative study of fishing-induced juvenescence effects under different climatic andfishing harvesting scenarios
Manuel Hidalgo1, Valerio Bartolino2, Santiago Cerviño3, Angélique Jadaud4, Enric Massutí5, Fran Saborido-Rey6,
Marina Santurtún7 and Nils Christian Stenseth1
1

2
3
4

5
6
7

Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Olso, P.O. Box 1066, Blindern, Oslo,
0316, Norway. E-mail: manuel.hidalgo@bio.uio.no
Department of Animal and Human Biology, University of Rome “La Sapienza”, 32 Viale dell’Universita, Rome, 00185, Italy
Instituto Español de Oceanografía Centro, Oceanográfico de Vigo, Cabo Estai - Canido s/n 36200, Vigo, Spain
IFREMER - Centre Halieutique Méditerranéen et Tropical, Laboratoire de Ressources Halieutiques, Bd Jean Monnet, B.P. 171, 34203
Sète Cedex, FranceInstituto Español de Oceanografía, Centre Oceanografic de Balears, Moll de Ponent s/n, 07015 Palma de Mallorca, Spain
Institute of Marine Research (CSIC), 6 Eduardo Cabello, Vigo, 36208, Spain
AZTI Tecnalia, Resource Department, Txatxarramendi Ugartea Z/G, Sukarieta (Bizkaia), España

The age truncated or juvenescent populations are a worldwide consequence of the protracted size-selective
mortality of commercial fishing on the older and larger individuals. This process increases a populations’ability to directly respond to environmental fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of the interaction between
fisheries, environment and internal dynamics that produces complex synergic effects on the population dynamics
of marine species. However, the output of this complex interplay is often species- and context-dependent. In thisstudy, we use a species-specific case of study (European hake, EH, M. merluccius) to investigate how ecologicalconsequences of fisheries-induced juvenescent on individual traits (e.g., size at maturation, mean length-at-age)and population properties (e.g., intrinsic growth rate) interacted differently with one another depending on theenvironmental and fishery harvesting scenario. We used a comparative approach investigating five stocks of EH,
two from the Atlantic and three from the Mediterranean Sea. Although the Mediterranean is a more oligotrophic
system compared with the Atlantic, different oceanographic-productive conditions existed at smaller spatial scales
within each of these main areas. Additionally, compared to Atlantic fisheries, those in the Mediterranean harvest
relatively more juveniles. By combining all sources of information, we investigate differences in the coupling
between life history traits and population dynamics for all stocks that display different level of juvenescence. This
study will advance our understanding of the underlying mechanisms behind the transitory relationships between
climate and fish populations.

26 April, 17:30 (A2-6034)

Bringing together molecular genetics and population dynamics modelling: Disentangling
the influence of fisheries and climate variation in the endangered European eel
J. Marti Pujolar1, D. Bevacqua2, M. Andrello3 and L. Zane1
1
2

The stock of the European eel has shown a dramatic decline over the last decades and is considered to be outside
safe biological limits, with a drop of 90-99% in recruitment and 75% in adult landings in the last 30 years. Causesof the crash include anthropogenic factors such as overfishing and climate-driven changes in environmental
factors such as ocean currents. The goal of the present study was to achieve a comprehensive understanding of therole of demographic processes that determine the population structure of the European eel using a European eelspecific genetic-demographic model that takes into account the complex life cycle of the species which includes
movement between the spawning ground in the Sargasso Sea and the feeding grounds in continental Europe. The
main result of the study is the observation of a pattern of genetic patchiness (highly significant differentiation
without a temporal or geographic pattern), which was only mimicked in the model when reproduction in the
Sargasso Sea occurred in a small number of spawning events isolated from each other in time and/or space, withan average of 130 breeders in each spawning event. The discrepancy between migrating adults (30 millions peryear) and actual breeders is thought to be due to unpredictable oceanic conditions causing reproductive failure ina significant fraction of individuals. A low effective population size combined with increase climate-variability
during the last decades might have contributed to the current decline in abundance of the European eel.

99

A2

3

Dipartimento di Biologia, Università di Padova, Via G. Colombo 3, Padova, I-35131, Italy. E-mail: josemartin.pujolar@unipd.it
Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Università degli Studi di Parma, Parco Area delle Scienze 11A, Parma, I-43100, Italy
Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine (LECA), CNRS UMR 5553, Grenoble, 38041, FranceClimate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 17:45 (A2-6115)

Response of yellowtail Seriola quinqueradiata in the Japan Sea to sea water temperature
over the last century and potential effect of global warming
Yongjun Tian1, Hideaki Kidokoro1, Tatsuro Watanabe1, Yosuke Igeta1, Hideo Sakaji2 and Ken Watanabe3
1

2
3

Japan Sea National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency (FRA), Suidou-cho, 1 Niigata, 951-8121, Japan
E-mail: yjtian@fra.affrc.go.jp
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Research Agency (FRA), 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-8468, Japan
Toyama Prefectural Fisheries Research Institute, 364 Takatsuka, Namerikawa, Toyama, 936-8536, JapanThe yellowtail Seriola quinqueradiata is one of the most important, large-predatory fishes in Japanese waters.
Using the historical catch data of yellowtail and a sea surface temperature (SST) data set for the waters around
Japan over the last century, the long-term variability in the abundance of yellowtail and its relation with SST was
examined. The total catch of yellowtail increased from 14,446 tons in 1894 to 77,462 tons in 2000 with an evident
increasing trend over the last century. However, the trend is not linear but decadal with significant shifts occurringaround in 1911, 1931, 1950, 1973 and 1989, strongly suggesting an effect of water temperature. Analysis of thecatch in various fisheries regions and SSTs showed that the catch trend was approximately in accordance with
SSTs. In particular, the catch from the Japan Sea was significantly and positively correlated with winter SST in
the northern Japan Sea, indicated the increasing water temperature in the Tsushima Current region has a positiveeffect on the migration and recruitment of yellowtail to the Japan Sea. SST maps indicated a northward movement
in distribution and overwintering areas of yellowtail in the Japan Sea in 1990s that corresponded to increased
SST. These results suggest that migration pattern, distribution and overwatering area are largely dictated by SST.
Hence, the potential impacts of global warming on migration, distribution and fisheries grounds of yellowtail in
the Japan Sea were estimated under the prediction scenario A1B of IPCC, indicating northward expansions in
distribution and over-wintering region, and large changes in the current fishing grounds.

26 April, 18:00 (A2-6258)

Key mechanism determining the impact of climate change on the productivity andfisheries of North Sea plaice, Pleuronectes platessa L.
Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp1, Ralf van Hal1, Marc Hufnagl2, Richard D.M. Nash3, Alexander Schroeder4, Lorna R. Teal1,
Ingrid Tulp1, Rob Witbaard1,5, Doug Beare1 and Henk W. van der Veer5
1
2

3
4
5

Wageningen IMARES, P.O. Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands. E-mail: adriaan.rijnsdorp@wur.nl
Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Institute of Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, University of Hamburg, Olbersweg 24,
Hamburg, D-22767, Germany
Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870, Nordnes, Bergen, N-5817, Norway
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, D-27570, Germany
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, P.O. Box 58, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The Netherlands

Climate change will impact both habitat quality and connectivity between spawning and nursery grounds. The
possibility of reaching nursery habitat and the quality of this nursery habitat are key factors determining population
size in flatfish such as plaice. Coinciding with the recent warming, juveniles have moved to deeper offshore water,suggesting a deterioration of the quality of nursery habitat. We analysed the effects of recent climate variability on
habitat quality and connectivity, using survey data and bio-physical modeling. The distribution shift of juveniles
to offshore waters is not solely due to an avoidance response to high summer temperature, but to the combined
effect of the increase in temperature and a decrease in food availability. Climate-induced changes in connectivity
and nursery habitat quality caused changes in the size and location of suitable spawning habitats. Climate change
is expected to result in a reduction of the productivity of North Sea plaice, a change in the distribution of thefisheries resource, and an aggravation of the current discarding problem within the fishery. Forecasting the impact
of climate change on the productivity of North Sea plaice is critically dependent on our ability to forecast not only
the food resources of plaice but also the spatial dynamics of the stock.

100

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

26 April, 18:15 (A2-6345)

Linking climate, trophic interactions and fisheries: Threshold dynamics drive herring(Clupea harengus) growth in the central Baltic Sea
Michele Casini1, Valerio Bartolino1, Juan Carlos Molinero2 and Georgs Kornilovs3
1
2
3

Swedish Board of Fisheries, Institute of Marine Research, Box 4, Lysekil, 54321, Sweden. E-mail: michele.casini@fiskeriverket.se
Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, (IFM-GEOMAR), Duesternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, D-24105, Germany
Latvian Fish Resources Agency, 8 Daugavgrivas Str., Riga, LV-1048, Latvia

How multiple stressors influence fish stock dynamics is a crucial question in ecology in general and fisheriesscience in particular. Using a time-series covering a 30-year period, we show that the body growth of thecentral Baltic Sea herring (both in terms of condition and weight-at-age) has shifted from being mainly driven
by hydro-climatic forces to a density-dependent control. The shift in the mechanisms of regulation of herring
growth has been triggered by the drastic increase in the abundance of sprat, the main food competitor for herring.
Abundances of sprat above a threshold of ~18*1010 individuals decouples herring growth from hydro-climatic
factors (i.e. salinity), and becomes the main driver of growth variation. At high sprat densities, herring growthis considerably lower than at low sprat levels, independent of salinity conditions, indicative of hysteresis in
the response of herring growth to changes in salinity. The threshold dynamic explains the changes in herring
growth during the past three decades, and contributes to elucidating the parallel drastic drop in herring spawning
stock biomass. The increase in sprat population has been caused by increased temperature and release from cod
predation, confirming the importance of both climate and food-web structure in population dynamics. Studying
the interplay between different stressors can provide fundamental information for the management of exploited
resources. The management of the central Baltic herring stock should be adaptive and take into consideration the
dual response of herring growth to hydro-climatic forces and food-web structure, providing a sound ecosystemapproach to fisheries.

A2 Oral Presentations: Day 2, April 27
27 April, 9:00 (A2-6171)

A study on yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) stocks and fishing conditions in relation to
oceanic environmental variation in the Atlantic Ocean
Kuo-Wei Lan, Ming-An Lee and Hsueh-Jung Lu
Department of Environmental Biology and Fisheries Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, 2 Pei-Ning Rd., Keelung 20224, Taiwan, ROC
E-mail: aaman72422@msn.com

101

A2

The yellowfin tuna is one of the major target species of the Taiwanese commercial tuna longline fishery in
the Atlantic Ocean. In this study, we employed principle component analysis (PCA) to assess the strength ofassociations between Taiwanese LL fishery catch per unit effort (CPUE) in different subregions and various
oceanic environmental factors from 1998 until 2007. Various environment variables were utilized including
sea surface temperature (SST), sub-surface temperature, sea surface height (SSH), chlorophyll a concentration(Chl-a), net primary production (NPP) and the North Tropic Atlantic Index (NTA). The eight yellowfin tuna
longline fishery sub-areas were delimited by ICCAT in the Atlantic Ocean. The distribution of yellowfin tuna wasmostly concentrated in sub-area 3~4 and the catch percentage are more than 73.6%. In addition, he average CPUEof whole Atlantic Ocean was 0.77(inds/1000 hooks) but was 1.24(inds/1000 hooks) in sub-area 3 and 4. The
GIS maps of SST, PP with CPUE showed the high CPUE areas have the east-west spatial variations and the high
CPUE areas always focused on the high PP areas. The PCA indicated the highest relationship between CPUE,
SST, sea temperature at 105~328m depth, SSH and NTA index factors (first component). The second component
indicated that the catch of yellow-fin tuna was highly interrelated with the temperature subtraction of sub-area 3
and sub-area 4. Further, high CPUE of yellow-fin tuna are associated with increasing sub-surface temperature in
2003~2005, especially in 2005. It also reveals a yearly evolution of CPUE, catch and oceanic condition in the
Atlantic Ocean.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 9:15 (A2-6295)

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of blue marlin (Makaira nigricans) as
inferred from data for longline fisheries in the Pacific Ocean
Nan-Jay Su1, Chi-Lu Sun1, André E. Punt2 and Su-Zan Yeh1
1
2

Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 10617, Taiwan, ROC. E-mail: nanjay@ntu.edu.tw
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195, USA

Blue marlin are distributed throughout tropical and temperate waters in the Pacific Ocean. However, the preferenceof this species for particular habitats may impact its distribution and vulnerability to being caught. Therefore,
the relationship between spatio-temporal patterns of blue marlin abundance and environmental variables which
may be impacted by climate change is examined using generalized additive models fitted to catch-effort datafrom longline fisheries and environmental data. The presence of blue marlin and the catch-rates given presence
are modeled separately. Latitude, longitude, and sea-surface temperature explain the greatest proportion of thedeviance. Spatial distributions of blue marlin abundance, based on combining the probability of presence andrelative density given presence, indicate that there is annual variation in the distribution of blue marlin, andthat the population apparently moved east during the 1997-1998 El Niño. Yearly patterns in the blue marlin
distribution appear to be associated with El Niño through shifts in SST. This study shows that models of catchand effort which include environmental covariates could be used to explore future changes in spatial distribution
given predictions from climate models.

27 April, 9:30 (A2-6032)

Predicting the effects of climate change on bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) spawning
habitat in the Gulf of Mexico
Barbara Muhling1, Sang-Ki Lee2, Michael J. Schirripa1, Walter Ingram3 and John Lamkin1
1
2
3

NOAA Southeast Fisheries Science Center, 75 Virginia Beach Dr., Miami, FL, 33149, USA. E-mail: Barbara.Muhling@noaa.gov
NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratories, 4301 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL, 33149, USA
NOAA Southeast Fisheries Science Center, 151 Watts Ave., Pascagoula, MS, 39567, USA

Atlantic bluefin tuna is a wide-ranging species found throughout the Atlantic Ocean. However, within the western
North Atlantic, significant spawning activity has not been recorded outside the Gulf of Mexico. While bluefin
tuna can tolerate colder waters than other tunas, they are adversely affected by warm waters. Conditions within
the Gulf of Mexico during the spring spawning season often approach the upper limits of tolerance for this species.
A predictive habitat model for bluefin tuna larvae in the Gulf of Mexico was produced using historical data. Larvae
were unlikely to be collected within the Loop Current, warm eddies, or lower salinity continental shelf waters.
Larvae were primarily collected between early-mid May, and mid June, suggesting a limited spawning window.
Because of these preferences, and their reproductive biology, bluefin tuna populations show high vulnerability tothe projected warming effects of climate change.
As a first step in determining climate change impacts on bluefin tuna spawning, we examined the ability of the 26
IPCC climate models to simulate 20th century Gulf of Mexico temperature distributions. Using the most suitablemodels, likely temperature scenarios for the next 100 years were projected under CO2 emission scenario SRES
A1B (720 ppm stabilization). Potential temporal and spatial changes in bluefin tuna spawning habitat in the Gulf
of Mexico were then examined. This work forms the basis for future investigations into climate change effects
on bluefin tuna spawning habitat, which will involve downscaling IPCC climate models to a regional scale using
a high resolution ocean model.

102

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 9:45 (A2-6110)

Swordfish population dynamics in the Pacific Ocean
Melanie Abecassis1, Patrick Lehodey2, Inna Senina2 and Jeffrey J. Polovina3
1

2
3

Joint Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Hawaii, 1000 Pope Rd., Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA
E-mail: melanie.abecassis@noaa.gov
Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), Space Oceanography Division, 8-10 rue Hermès, 31520 Ramonville Saint-Agne, France
Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, NOAA, 2570 Dole St., Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA

Swordfish (Xiphias gladus) is one of the most valuable pelagic resources for the Pacific Ocean longline fisheries.
Yet, stock structure and spatial dynamics of this species are poorly known. For a proper sustainable management,
we need to acquire a better knowledge of swordfish spawning and foraging grounds, and the mechanisms of
migrations between them. Thus, we are adapting the SEAPODYM (Spatial Ecosystem And POpulation
DYnamics Model) model, initially developed for tropical tuna species, to swordfish. SEAPODYM is a eulerian
age-structured population dynamics model based on advection-diffusion-reaction equations. It uses oceanic
environment simulated by ocean circulation and NPZD models to drive the spatial and temporal dynamics ofboth the biomass of prey functional groups and predator species (i.e., here, swordfish). Estimation of parametersof the model can be optimized using assimilation of fishing data (catch and effort, and size frequencies). Once
convergence is achieved, the model provides indices of spawning and foraging habitats, and the spatial distributionof different life stages (larvae, juveniles, and premature and mature adults) over time.
Once a satisfactory set of parameters has been obtained for a species, it is possible to use outputs of climate models(temperature, primary production, currents, oxygen concentration) as inputs in Seapodym to examine potential
biomass trajectories or changes of habitat under different scenarios. This talk will present the model and current
progress on adapting it to swordfish.

27 April, 10:00 (A2-6227)

Climate change effect on the saffron cod Eleginus gracilis reproduction, stock, and fisheryin the Japan Sea
Yury I. Zuenko, Lydmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdovin and Elena I. Ustinova
Japan Sea and North-West Pacific Oceanography, Pacific Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (TINRO-Center), 4 Shevchenko
Alley, Vladivostok, 690950, Russia. E-mail: zuenko_yury@hotmail.com

27 April, 10:15 (A2-6239)

Incorporating climate variability into the assessment of Gulf of Alaska Pacific cod
Z. Teresa A’mar1, André E. Punt2 and Grant G. Thompson1
1
2

NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA. E-mail: Teresa.Amar@noaa.gov
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, P.O. Box 355020, Seattle, WA, 98195-5020, USA

The exploration of the relationships between environmental forcing and recruitment and representing them within
an operating model is a key component in the development of a management strategy evaluation framework which
incorporates climate variability. The management strategy for the fishery for Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus)
in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) consists of an age-structured stock assessment model and a harvest control rule.

103

A2

Ice-fishing of saffron cod is developed in Peter the Great Bay where about 1000 tons of this species were caught
annually until 1990. The catch decreased abruptly after the 1988/1989 climatic regime shift to warming andwas only partially restored in 2000s, indicating a positive relationship between catch with winter severity. The
relationship has one-year lag that allows one to discard the hypothesis that winter conditions directly influence
ice-fishing and indicates that other factors, such as climate-driven changes in saffron cod reproduction may be
responsible. Since this species spawns under the sea ice, we investigated whether spawning duration and year
class strength were related to characteristics of winter severity including the sea ice conditions. We discuss themechanisms by which global climate change appears to affect the local population of saffron cod and project
future (21st century) changes in this population.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
The relationships between age-0 abundance and climate indices, and the uncertainty associated with these
relationships, were characterized within a statistical catch-at-age population dynamics operating model similar in
structure to the stock assessment model for GOA Pacific cod. The operating model incorporated region-specifichistorical climate indices and was fitted to the data used for the stock assessment for GOA Pacific cod. The resultsfrom the operating model were compared with those from the 2009 stock assessment with respect to recruitment,
stock status, and management measures. This comparison allowed for quantifying how the inclusion of climate
data affected estimation precision, error, and bias.

27 April, 10:30 (A2-6202)

Spatially resolved impact of temperature change on recruitment of sprat and cod in theBaltic Sea – From observation to bio-economic modelingRüdiger Voss1, Hans-Harald Hinrichsen2, Jörn O. Schmidt1 and Martin F. Quaas1
1

2
3

Sustainable Fishery, Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Wilhelm-Seelig Platz 1, Kiel, 24118, Germany
E-mail: voss@economics.uni-kiel.de
Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, 24105, Germany
Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Olbersweg 24, Hamburg, 22767, Germany

Assessment of climate change in the Baltic Sea revealed significant positive trends in the annual mean temperature.
Especially during the last 10 to 15 years, extremely high NAO+ phases have been registered, being coupled tohigh sea surface temperatures. Studies of past and recent ecosystem changes have demonstrated the sensitivityof the Baltic Sea ecosystem to changing temperatures. For example, increased production of the sprat (Sprattus
sprattus) population during the last decade has co-varied with high temperatures. In this study we investigate
spatially-resolved temperature trends over a 25 year time period in the Baltic Sea obtained from hydrodynamic
model simulations. We show that climate-driven changes in temperature affect the Baltic Sea area in a nonuniform way: Besides a general temperature increase, westerly winds have intensified, increasing the upwelling
potential in some areas which is, in turn, coupled to lower than average temperatures. We calculate temperature
trends in a spatial resolution of ¼ ICES rectangle (ca. 15x15nm) and a depth resolution of 10m intervals. We
concentrate on months and depths strata which are most important for recruitment processes of the commercially
important, as well as ecologically strongly interlinked species cod (Gadus morhua) and sprat. A spatially- andstage-resolved evaluation of temperature-dependant key processes for recruitment (e.g. egg mortality, egg phaseduration, larval window of opportunity) is performed based on large-scale, collaborative European research
programs such as CORE, STORE, and GLOBEC Germany. Finally, implications for future management arederived from an age-structured bio-economic model, using temperature-sensitive stock-recruitment relationships,
including species interaction effects.

27 April, 11:05 (A2-6191)

The rise and the fall of the northern blue whiting stock
Harald Loeng1, Hjámar Hátún2, Jens Christian Holst1, Mark Payne3 and Aril Slotte1
123Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes, Bergen, 5817, Norway. E-mail: harald.loeng@imr.no
Faroe Marine Research Institute, Torshavn, Faroe Islands
Danish Institute of Aquatic Resources (DTU-AQUA) Charlottenlund Slot, 2920 Charlottenlund, Denmark

The northern blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) is a pelagic gadoid occupying mainly the waters between
the spawning grounds west of the British Isles and the feeding areas in the Norwegian Sea and adjacent waters.
The spawning stock of blue whiting increased dramatically in the late 1990s due to a succession of eight strong
or extremely strong year classes. However, from 2005 the recruitment went back to the pre-1995 recruitment.
Since 2005 the blue whiting stock has dropped quickly due to the collapse in recruitment and a large fishery. The
sub-polar gyre may influence the spawning distribution and the current challenge is to explain how the changes
in spawning distribution might influence the recruitment to the blue whiting stock. It is hypothesised that themackerel feed on the eggs and larvae of blue whiting, thus affecting blue whiting recruitment negatively. The
overlap in the spawning distribution of blue whiting with mackerel varies with the conditions in the sub-polar
gyre. Larvae and young blue whiting feed on zooplankton in the Norwegian Sea. The biomass of zooplankton in
the Norwegian Sea and adjacent areas has steadily decreased during the last fifteen years. In parallel the biomass

104

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheriesof pelagic fish (blue whiting, mackerel and Norwegian spring spawning herring) has increased. We hypothesizethat variability in climate conditions explains changes in distribution while variability in predation by mackerel
on eggs and larvae is the most likely direct causal mechanism affecting recruitment and variability in the feeding
conditions in the nursery area likely having a secondary effect.

27 April, 11:20 (A2-6028)

Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock-specific survival of adultmigrating Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)
Eduardo Martins1, Scott Hinch1,2, David Patterson3, Merran Hague3, Steven Cooke4, Kristina Miller5, Michael
Lapointe6, Karl English7 and Anthony Farrell8
1

2
3

4
5
6
7
8

Centre for Applied Conservation Research, Department of Forest Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4,
Canada. E-mail: egmartins@gmail.com
Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Cooperative Resource Management Institute, School of Resource and Environmental Management,
Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
Institute of Environmental Science and Department of Biology, Carleton University, Ottawa, ON, K1S 5B6, Canada
Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd., Nanaimo, BC, V9T 6N7, Canada
Pacific Salmon Commission, Vancouver, BC, V6E 1B5, Canada
LGL Limited, 9768 Second St., Sidney, BC, V8L 3Y8, Canada
Department of Zoology and Faculty of Land and Food Systems, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada

Mean summer water temperatures in the Fraser River (British Columbia, Canada) have increased by ~1.5oC sincethe 1950’s. In recent years, record high river temperatures during spawning migrations of Fraser River sockeye
salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) have been associated with high mortality events, raising concerns about longterm viability of the numerous natal stocks faced with climate warming. In this study, the effect of freshwater
thermal experience on spawning migration survival was estimated by fitting capture-recapture models to five
years of telemetry data collected for ~1,500 adults from four Fraser River sockeye salmon stock-aggregates(Chilko, Quesnel, Stellako-Late Stuart, and Adams). Survival of Adams sockeye salmon was the most impacted
by warm temperatures encountered in the lower river, followed by that of Stellako-Late Stuart and Quesnel. In
contrast, survival of Chilko fish was insensitive to temperature. The survival-temperature relationships were used
to predict historic (1961-1990) and future (2010-2099) survival under simulated lower river thermal experiences
for the Quesnel, Stellako-Late Stuart, and Adams stocks. A decrease of ~15% in survival of all these stocks
was predicted by the end of the century if the Fraser River warms as expected. However, the decrease in future
survival of Adams sockeye salmon would occur only if fish continue to enter the river abnormally early, towards
warmer periods of the summer, as they have done since 1995. The survival estimates and predictions presented
here are likely optimistic and emphasize the need to consider stock-specific responses to temperature and climate
warming into fisheries management and conservation strategies.

27 April, 11:35 (A2-6179)

Hyunju Seo1, Masa-aki Fukuwaka2 and Masahide Kaeriyama3
1

2
3

Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato-cho, Hakodate, Hokkaido, 041-8611, Japan
E-mail: uagiri@hanmail.net
Subarctic Fisheries Resources Division, Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, 116 Katusurakoi, Kushiro, 085-0802, Japan
Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato-cho, Hakodate, Hokkaido, 041-8611, Japan

We revealed the effects of regional and larger spatial scales of climatic/oceanic condition on growth, survival, andpopulation dynamics of Hokkaido chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) using path analysis. Variability in growthof chum salmon at age-1 to -4 in the North Pacific including Okhotsk Sea and Bering Sea was estimated based on
the back-calculation method using scales of 4-year-old adults returning to the Ishikari River of Hokkaido Island
in Japan during 1945-2005. Hokkaido chum salmon had higher growth rates at age-1 but lower growth rate sat
age-2, -3, and -4 since the 1980s. Path analysis indicated that the growth at age-1 in the Okhotsk Sea was directly
impacted by warmer sea surface temperature (SST) associated with global warming. The increased growth at

105

A2

Long-term fluctuations in somatic growth, survival, and population dynamics of Hokkaido
chum salmon, Oncorhynchus keta, linking to climate changes

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
age-1 resulted in higher rates of survival and larger age-1 population sizes. In the Bering Sea, subsequently,
large age-1 population sizes led to decreased growth at age-3 and indirectly smaller fork length of adults, despite
no relation between SST, zooplankton biomass, and the growth at age-2 to -4. Therefore, faster growth at age-1
relating to global warming is expected to increase the survival of age-1 chum salmonand, by doing so, will lead todensity-dependent reductions in the growth at age-2 to -4 individuals and maturation impacts on this population
due to limits in the carry capacity of the Bering Sea.

27 April, 11:50 (A2-6173)

Investigating the roles of climate, density-dependence and fishing on long-term and largescale changes in recruitment, growth, maturity and distribution of Pacific halibut
Juan L. Valero, Steven R. Hare and Bruce M. Leaman
International Pacific Halibut Commission, P.O. Box 95009, Seattle, WA, 98145-2009, USA. E-mail: juan@iphc.washington.edu

Pacific halibut in Canada and USA have been commercially exploited since 1888 and have been managed by theInternational Pacific Halibut Commission (IPHC) since 1923. During that time the understanding and modelingof population processes, as well as the processes themselves, have changed significantly. Recruitment shows theeffects of alternating productivity regimes correlated to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Long-term and largemagnitude changes in growth are potentially linked to abundance or competition. Current declines in size at age
affects the maturity schedule, the proportion of females caught, and decreases exploitable biomass. Analysesof historical distributions of abundance indicate large temporal changes and spatial shifts between northwest
and southeast regions. The IPHC harvest policy was developed to be robust to variability and uncertainty inthe aforementioned processes. However, a major assumption regarding the understanding and modeling of
halibut dynamics (that ontogenetic migration ended when halibut recruit to the commercial fishery) has been
refuted. A recent stock-wide tagging study shows that halibut continue migrating at rates high enough to impact
halibut dynamics under exploitation. Migration has considerable effects on the spatial scope of the assessment,
spatial apportionment of catches and spatial distribution of bycatch impacts. The above effects and the potential
effects of migration on processes not yet evaluated, led to an ongoing re-evaluation of the IPHC harvest policy.
Furthermore, the harvest policy re-evaluation includes revisiting the roles of climate, density-dependence, andhistorical fishing patterns on halibut dynamics under exploitation.

27 April, 12:05 (A2-6156)

Past, present and future of Japanese common squid, Todarodes pacificus (Cephalopoda:
Ommastrephidae)
Yasunori Sakurai1, A.L. Rosa1 and J. Yamamoto2
1

2

Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato-cho, Hakodate, Hokkaido, 041-8611, Japan
E-mail: sakurai@fish.hokudai.ac.jp
Field Science Center for Northern Biosphere, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato-cho, Hakodate, Hokkaido, 041-8611, JapanThe Japanese common squid, which has a 1-year life cycle, is one of the most important commercially exploitedsquid species in the world. It is distributed in the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea, and the Oyashio and Kuroshio
current systems. It consists of three subpopulations with different peak spawning seasons; summer, autumn
and winter, with the later two being the largest and most important. Autumn spawning occurs mainly in thesouthern Sea of Japan and the Tsushima Strait, while winter spawning occurs in the East China Sea. T. pacificus
produce gelatinous egg mass containing many small eggs. These egg masses are thought to occur within or
above the pycnocline at temperatures suitable for egg development. We estimated from laboratory studies that
hatchlings (<1mm ML) will survive in the surface water at temperatures between 18-24°C, with highest survival
between 19.5-23°C. After hatching, the paralarvae presumably ascend from the mid layer near the pycnocline
to the surface layer above the continental shelf and slope and are transported into convergent frontal zones. We
analyzed long-term changes of environmental variables, such as SST and wind, on the distribution of spawningareas of T. pacificus (1978 to 2010) in the Sea of Japan and East China Sea, Furthermore, we attempted to predictthe distribution of spawning areas and life cycle characteristics of T. pacificus during the 21st Century based on
the Global Warning Scenario (IPCC, International Panel of Climate Change) using the Earth Simulation System(FRCGC, Frontier Research Center of Global change, Japan).
106

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 12:20 (A2-6250)

Differing response of herring stocks to ecosystem forcing in the California and Gulf of
Alaska Current systems
Jacob F. Schweigert1, Jennifer Boldt1, Linnea Flostrand1, Peter Olesiuk1, Sherri Dressel2 and Ryan Watanabe3
1

2
3

Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd., Nanaimo, BC, V9T 6N7, Canada
E-mail: Jake.Schweigert@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Alaska Department of Fish and Game, P.O. Box 240020, Douglas, AK, 99824, USA
California Department of Fish and Game, P.O. Box 1650, Bodega Bay, CA, 94923, USA

Pacific herring populations at four locations within the California Current and Gulf of Alaska were examined andcompared for response to environmental influences on marine productivity or bottom-up forcing and top-down
effects due to changing marine mammal predation as these populations have recovered or collapsed in the twooceanographic systems. Herring populations in San Francisco Bay and on the west coast of Vancouver Island
within the California Current have experienced a long term decline as ocean conditions have warmed and marine
mammal populations have recovered from historic commercial harvest. In contrast, populations in Sitka andPrince Rupert have remained stable or increased within the Gulf of Alaska as mammal predators have declined
and ocean conditions warmed. We compared the average recruitment rates, growth rates, and mortality rates in
the four herring populations in relation to changes in average predator population abundance levels and foodavailability. It appears that reduced plankton availability in combination with increased predation has impacted
the recruitment and productivity of herring in the California Current system to a greater degree than in the Gulf
of Alaska. Implications of these results are discussed with respect to effects of climate change on the long term
sustainability of these populations throughout the North Pacific.

27 April, 12:35 (A2-6338)

Responses of anchovy and sardine spawning to physical and biological factors in the
Kuroshio and California Current systems: Interspecific and intersystem comparison
Akinori Takasuka1, Sam McClatchie2, Ed Weber2, Yoshioki Oozeki1, Takahiko Kameda1, Yuichi Hirota3 andHiroshi Okamura4
1

2
3
4

National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 2368648, Japan. E-mail: takasuka@affrc.go.jp
Southwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA, 8604 La Jolla Shores Dr., La Jolla, CA, 92037-1508, USA
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 6-1-21 Sanbashidori, Kochi, Kochi, 780-8010, Japan
National Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 2368648, Japan

107

A2

Spawning responses to physical and biological factors were examined for Japanese anchovy (Engraulisjaponicus) and Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) in the Kuroshio Current system, and northern anchovy(E. mordax) and California sardine (S. sagax) in the California Current system. Species-specific patterns wereextracted from long-term data sets of the egg surveys off the Pacific coast of Japan, from 1978 to 2007, andthe CalCOFI surveys off California and Baja California from 1951 to 2008. Generalized additive models wereused to relate egg presence/absence to sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, zooplankton volume, andchlorophyll a concentration. Spawning anchovy and sardine showed species-specific responses to temperatureand salinity that differed between species within each current system and between the two current systems.
Although the responses to zooplankton and chlorophyll were fairly consistent between the two systems, there
were species-specific patterns, which could be interpreted in the context of differential energy allocation strategies
for reproduction. On a continuum between reliance on income and capital for fueling reproduction, Japanese
anchovy was clearly an income species whereas Japanese sardine and California species showed more relianceon capital. Differences between anchovy and sardine were greater in the Kuroshio than in the California Current
system. The anchovy–sardine relationships between the two systems appeared reversed when considering the
responses to physical factors (temperature and salinity) and not reversed, but quite different, in the responses tobiological factors (zooplankton and chlorophyll). These different biological responses constitute a key factor inunderstanding climate effects on congeneric species.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 12:50 (A2-6196)

Climate-induced changes in distribution of Northwest Atlantic fish and invertebrates:
Implications for management
Janet A. Nye1, Jason S. Link1 and Jonathan A. Hare2
12

National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, 166 Water St., Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA
E-mail: janet.nye@noaa.gov
National Marine Fisheries Service, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, 28 Tarzwell Dr., Narragansett, RI, 02882, USA

The hypothesized first response of organisms to warming temperatures associated with climate change is a shift
in spatial distribution and several recent studies have detected such responses in many ecosystems. Similarly, ina meta-analysis of 36 fish stocks and 6 invertebrates on the Northeast US coast, we found that over half of thesefish and invertebrates exhibited distributional responses consistent with warming, including a poleward shift inmean center of biomass, an increase in mean depth, and an expansion or contraction of their range. Distributionalchanges were highly correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, but the magnitude of change wasdependent on the biogeography of each species. Stocks at the southern extent of their range exhibited dramatic
poleward shifts, while minimal changes in center of biomass were observed in stocks with distributions limited
to the Gulf of Maine. Such shifts in distribution have important implications for the rebuilding plans for somestocks and suggest that we continually re-evaluate the unit stock definition of species as climate change continues
to affect species spatial distribution and population dynamics. We discuss spatial shifts and recruitment variabilityof selected species to highlight how changes in these responses to climate change may affect stock assessments
and management advice.

27 April, 13:05 (A2-6019)

Now you see me, now you don’t: Uncertainties in projecting future spatial distributionof marine populations
Benjamin Planque1, Edwige Bellier2, Frida Ben Rais Lasram3 and Christophe Loots4
1
2
3

4

Institute of Marine Research, Postboks 6404, 9294 Tromsø, Norway. E-mail: Benjamin.planque@imr.no
Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), 7485 Trondheim, Norway
Laboratoire Ecosystèmes et Ressources Aquatiques, Institut National Agronomique de Tunisie, 43 Ave. Charles Nicolle, 1082 Tunis,
Tunisia
Institut Français de Recherche pour l’Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Laboratoire Ressources Halieutiques, 150 quai Gambetta,
BP699, F-62321 Boulogne sur mer, France

Climate change, by altering the physical environment of marine species, is expected to result in alteration of
the distribution of marine populations. Predicting the nature and magnitude of these changes relies mostly on
observations of populations’ response to past climate variability. As future climate variations are expected todepart from past ones, such projections remain highly uncertain. In this contribution, we review the fundamental
assumptions behind the most common species and population distribution models. We argue that most of theuncertainties in future projections result from model uncertainties engendered by gaps in knowledge on theprocesses controlling spatial distribution and on how these may evolve in the future. Most available methodologies
present very high levels of uncertainty and may not be suitable to provide reliable guidance on what future
spatial distributions of marine populations may look like. On the other hand, they constitute valuable tools forunderstanding underlying processes and exploring the consequences of possible future management strategies.

108

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

A2 Posters
A2-6022

Possible inner causes for correcting “climatic” trends in pink salmon
Alexander M. Kaev (presented by A. Velikanov)
Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (SakhNIRO), 196 Komsomolskaya St., Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693016, Russia
E-mail: kaev@sakhniro.ru

Pink salmon is thought to be a possible indicator species, sensitive to climate-driven environmental change.
However, pink salmon abundance, biological indices and migration timing may all be influenced via changes
in the relative composition of different sub-components of this stock (e.g., early versus late sub-components
identified within Aniva Bay (southern Sakhalin Island) and Iturup Island (Kuril Islands) stocks. Despite biologicaldifferences, both sub-components display trends towards increasing male size of males and decreasing relative
fecundity of females. Higher size-specific egg production by early versus late females reflects higher mortality(mean abundance of the early component is lower and more temporally variable). Freshwater spawning conditions
influence the ratio of abundance of early versus late pink salmon. Opposite long-term trends in abundance of lateand early salmon have been observed for Aniva Bay and Iturup Island that weakly track changes in the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) climate index and may be related to cycles of solar activity. Changes in pink salmon
length are not correlated to the PDO. A ratio change was noted for male and female body lengths: females became
relatively larger when growth slowed. Since female length is positively correlated to fecundity, the increased
female length may a population response that increases the probability of successful reproduction when feeding
conditions change for the worse.

A2-6030

Inter-cohort growth rate changes of common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) and theirrelationship with environmental conditions off central southern Chile
Claudio Castillo-Jordán1,3, Luis A. Cubillos2,3 and Eduardo Navarro4
1
2
3

4

Programa de Magíster en Ciencias con mención en Pesquerías
Programa de Doctorado en Oceanografía
Laboratorio de Evaluación de Poblaciones Marinas (EPOMAR), Departamento de Oceanografía, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y
Oceanográficas, Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Concepción, Chile. E-mail: clacastillo@udec.cl
Centro Regional de Estudios Ambientales (CREA), Universidad Católica de la Santísima Concepción, Caupolicán 491, Concepción, Chile

109

A2

The inter-cohort variability in the von Bertalanffy (VB) growth parameters of common sardine (Strangomera
bentincki) was analyzed between 1990 and 2007. Time series of monthly length-frequency data were used to
calculate somatic growth rate (G) of cohorts throughout the study period. The VB growth parameters were
estimated using a nonlinear mixed-effects model by considering that population growth parameters have a common
distribution and that cohort-specific parameters can be treated as random effects. The best model explaining intercohort changes in growth included L∞ (asymptotic length) and K (growth coefficient) as random effects. Sardine
cohort growth (during the initial, fast-growth phase) was significantly different after 1998. Values of G werehigher for cohorts recruited between 1990 and 1997 compared to cohorts between 1999 and 2006. This significant
change in G coincided with a colder period established in the area after 1998 and changes in Ekman transport
dynamics. A significant and inverse relationship was found between G of cohorts and Ekman transport during thefirst fast-growth period (October to March) that explained 36 to 39% of the observed growth variability. Except for
the anomalously high growth rate of the 1998 cohort, sea surface temperature anomalies significantly explained 47
to 57% of the observed variability in G of the cohorts. Although changes in environmental conditions can explaina small but significant fraction of the observed variability, it is likely that intrinsic factors also play important roles
in determine the growth dynamics of common sardine in southern Chile and elsewhere.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

A2-6033

Patterns and processes underlying Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) migrations:
Progress on developing forecast tools to predict distribution and density
Melissa A. Haltuch1, Carrie Holt2, André E. Punt3 and M. Elizabeth Clarke1
1

2
3

Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd. East, Seattle, WA, 98112, USA
E-mail: Melissa.haltuch@noaa.gov
Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd., Nanaimo, BC, V9T 6N7, Canada
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, Box 355020, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-5020, USA

The spatial distribution of Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) exhibits strong environmentally-driven inter-annual
variation during the stock’s annual northerly migration, impacting monitoring, assessment, and management of
this species. Spawning and rearing habitat temperatures and strength of alongshore currents are hypothesized
drivers of that variation, both of which may be impacted by global climate change. Prediction of hake distribution
is important for long-term planning under future climate scenarios, and short-term decisions. Specifically, hake
management would be enhanced via optimized survey design and planning from improved estimates of hake
distribution and abundance. Given the ability to predict the distribution and abundance of hake prior to a survey,
survey effort could be distributed to minimize (expected) variance. Substantial benefits, in terms of more precise
estimates of abundance, could be possible for the hake survey off the west coast of North America which forms
the basis for stock assessment and management advice. This presentation discusses the development of a forecast
tool for predicting hake distribution and abundance based on fitting spatial time-series models with environmental
covariates. Previous studies have modeled hake distribution and density. However the covariates for this projectare derived from real-time satellite data and short-term ocean model forecasts, and hence have the potential
for a more spatially explicit and extensive predictive tool than previous efforts. While these forecasts focus ontime scales from weeks to seasons, developing the ability to produce reliable short-term forecasts for hake is aprecursor to forecasting the longer-term impacts of global climate change on the hake stock.

A2-6041Classifying the spatial structure of different spawning populations of commercially
important Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea by otolith elemental composition
Mei-Yu Chang and Audrey J. Geffen
Department of Biology, University of Bergen, Post Box 7800, Bergen, N-5020, Norway. E-mail: Audrey.Geffen@bio.uib.no

One of the most likely scenarios of the impact of climate change on marine fish populations is the change in
geographic ranges and altered distributions of locally adapted populations within species. Methods of monitoringsuch changes must combine immediate observations of population structure with methods that can reveal both
past and present spatial patterns. Otoliths are the first calcified tissues to be formed in fish. The core of the otolith
is formed during the pelagic larval stage, and contains a record of growth and the environmental cues that reflectspawning and larval drift. Within species there are often striking regional differences in otolith structure andelemental composition that are characteristic of different populations. Combining the information from otoliths,
which represent the environment signals, and genetic techniques, which focus on the evolutionary scale, might give
us more insight regarding the structure of stocks. Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua L.), herring (Clupea harengus),
European hake (Merluccius merluccius) and common sole (Solea solea) are four commercially-important andwidely-distributed species in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. The objectives of this study were
to examine the regional differences in the chemical signal in otolith cores and classify the different spawninggroups within each of the species. The impact of climate change, including temperature and acidification, can beevaluated by comparing present and past population structure. The methodology includes both laboratory andfield experiments to produce otolith material reflecting different regional environments.

110

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

A2-6058

Herring recruitment in the Baltic Sea: From observations to projections
Valerio Bartolino1, Piotr Margonski2, Massimiliano Cardinale1, Martin Lindegren3, Hans Linderholm4, Hakan
Wennhage1 and Michele Casini1
1
2
3
4

Institute of Marine Research, Swedish Board of Fisheries, Lysekil, 45321, Sweden. E-mail: valerio.bartolino@fiskeriverket.se
Sea Fisheries Institute, Gdynia, 81332, Poland
National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Charlottenlund, 2920, Denmark
Regional Climate Group, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, 40530, Sweden

Environmental variability and parental effects are two of the main forces driving temporal dynamics of recruitment
in herring stocks in the Baltic Sea. Applying recruitment models recently developed for the herring stocks in theCentral Baltic Sea and Gulf of Riga, we tested the effects of changes in water temperature predicted by different
climatic scenarios for the next three decades, on herring recruitment trajectories under different fishing mortality
levels. Our recruitment projections integrated estimates made by regional climate models and from a linear
state-space food web model. Sea surface temperatures (SST) predictions represented the primary biologicallyindependent source of variability and uncertainty in our system. Both direct and indirect processes that link
herring recruitment to SST variations were taken into account. The main indirect effects of temperature weretransferred to the herring parental stock and finally to recruitment through the food web and the tight trophic
relationships between zooplankton, sprat, herring and cod. Our projections suggested that recruitment willfluctuate at previously observed levels or will increase according to the severity of the warming scenario. The
parental stock will have minor variations from the current levels and mostly temperature will drive the recruitment
process. Uncertainties associated to the climate predictions were propagated across the food web and recruitment
models to assess their effects on recruitment projections for the next decades. Our study showed how couplingclimatic and biological models is possible and in our opinion should be promoted to understand the consequencesof exploitation on natural resources in a fast changing environment.

A2-6059 (Cancelled)

Modelling the demography of Calanus sinicus in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass
Guimei Liu1, Song Sun2 and Hui Wang1
12

National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, 100081, PR China. Email: liugm@nmefc.gov.cn
Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, 266071, PR China

111

A2

Calanus sinicus (C. sinicus), which is the main food for the anchovy and sardines, is a dominant copepod in
the Yellow Sea and has been specified as the key target species in the China-GLOBEC program. All stages of
C. sinicus can be found throughout the year in the Yellow Sea with a primary peak in abundance occurring inthe spring (from May to July) driven by seasonal changes in water temperature and food supply and a second,smaller peak observed in the autumn. Abundance and egg production rates are both very lower in winter due
to sub-optimal (low) temperatures and prey levels. The species is also not frequently encountered in shallow,
coastal waters during the summer. This copepod mainly resides in the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YCWM),
where temperatures above and below the strong thermocline are >25ºC and ~8ºC, respectively. In this paper,a three-dimension coupled physical and biological model is described for C. sinicus in the Yellow Sea. The
physical model used is the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) while the biological model is a simple temperaturedependent stage based model including eggs, N1 to CI, CII to CVI. The model was capable of reproducing
observed phenomenon including that high abundance of copepodites that typically occurs in YSCWM in August.
Passive tracer simulations illustrated that the weak residual flow at the bottom layer constrained the copepoditesof C. sinicus away from the YSCWM.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

A2-6060

Association of larval fish abundance with mesoscale eddies in the Gulf of Alaska
Elizabeth Atwood1, John K. Horne2, Janet T. Duffy-Anderson3 and Carol Ladd4
1

2
3
4

Quantitative Ecology and Resource Management, University of Washington, P.O. Box 355020, Seattle, WA, 98185-5020, USA
E-mail: eatwood@u.washington.edu
School of Aquatic and Fisheries Sciences, University of Washington, P.O. Box 355020, Seattle, WA, 98185-5020, USA
NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115-0070, USA
NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115-0070, USA

Larval fish dispersal trajectories from spawning grounds to juvenile nursery habitats influence growth and survival.
Trajectories are affected by environmental factors such as currents, winds, and basin-wide atmosphere-ocean
coupling. Mesoscale eddies propagating along the Gulf of Alaska shelf-break can increase cross-shelf flow andaffect nutrient, chlorophyll, and zooplankton communities in the basin. Yet association between eddy activity andshelf ichthyoplankton community composition has received little attention. Our objectives were to investigate
association between eddy activity and annual shelf larval fish abundances, and to compare effects of eddies andother environmental processes on larval fish abundances at local and basin scales. Monthly eddy kinetic energy(EKE) was used to measure eddy activity and was compared to springtime larval fish abundance estimates foreleven common fish species in Shelikof Strait, Alaska. We used multivariate and regression techniques to evaluate
associations between larval fish abundances and EKE. Annual relative abundances of larval fish during highEKE years were unequal to years with low EKE (p < 0.001). Some species were more abundant in high EKE
years, while other species were less abundant. We grouped species by life history characteristics for regression
analyses, and groups were supported by larval abundance cluster analysis (Non-metric Multidimensional Scaling,stress = 8.17). Importance of EKE in predicting larval fish abundance was comparable to other atmosphericoceanographic variables (p < 0.05). We propose mesoscale eddies should be included in future studies of physicalfactors influencing ichthyoplankton dispersal, an essential component in determining how climate change may
impact future fish populations.

A2-6070

Pattern of habitat preference by three small pelagic species in the southern Benguela
during high and low biomass periods
Nandipha M. Twatwa, Dawit Yemane and Janet C. Coetzee
Marine and Coastal Management, Department of Environmental Affairs, Private Bag X2, Rogge Bay, 8012, South Africa
E-mail: Natwatwa@deat.gov.za

Environmental factors that govern habitat preference and impact on fisheries resources can be assessed by linking
prevailing environmental conditions to the abundance and distribution of individual species. Spatially-explicit
estimates of the abundance of anchovy (Engraulis capensis), sardine (Sardinops sagax) and round herring(Etrumeus whiteheadi) were combined with oceanographic data bases to reveal the habitats utilized by these three
species at different biomass levels in the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem. Populations of these species
are of great socio-economic and ecological importance to the region and are vulnerable to change in response toenvironmental fluctuations. To understand the preferred environmental envelop, a single parameter quotient (SPQ)
method with randomization and non-linear model was used. Results indicated uneven distributions of abundanceof these small pelagic species across gradients of environmental variables. During high and low biomass levels,
anchovy preferred sea surface temperatures between 18.5 to 19.5°C, and 17.5 to 18.5°C, respectively, which werecooler than those preferred by sardine (19.5°C and 20.5-21.5°C, respectively). During low biomass periods,
anchovy’s preferred depths of 15 to 35 m; whereas this species was found at greater depths (25 to 35 m) whenpopulations were at low levels. Compared to anchovy, sardine was captured in a broader range of depths (15 to35 m) at high biomass levels. Round herring (redeye) had a wider depth preference (75 to 125 m and 155 to 165m) during high biomass but utilized a restricted range of depths (85 to 135 m) during period of low abundance.
This species was found in the coolest waters (between 9.5 and 11.5°C) and occurred at greater depths and at lower
levels of dissolved oxygen (<4.5ml.l-1) than the other two species. This basic biological information is an essential
step towards understanding habitat partitioning and the population dynamics, and improving the management ofthese species.

112Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

A2-6077

Environmental changes caused recent increase in abundance of rock cod, Patagonotothen
ramsayi in the Southwest Atlantic
Alexander Arkhipkin and Vladimir Laptikhovsky
Falkland Islands Government Fisheries Department, P.O. Box 598, Stanley, FIQQ 1 ZZ, Falkland Islands
E-mail: aarkhipkin@fisheries.gov.fk

The rock cod, Patagonothen ramsayi (Nototheniidae) is an abundant demersal small-bodied fish (adult size 30-35cm) that is widely distributed along the Patagonian Shelf in the Southwest Atlantic. This species was a common
bycatch in bottom trawl fisheries around the Falkland Islands with the total annual catch of 400-4,000 t in 19902004. Since 2005, rock cod abundance started to increase with total annual catches attaining 30,157 t in 2007 and60,209 t in 2008. This explosion in abundance was initiated after the yearclass associated an unusually cold year
(2002) that was followed by a chain of warm years (2003-2007) that had relatively high water temperatures on the
shelf. It probable that increased rates of growth and survival led to the marked increase in population biomass of
this species in this area. More rapid growth is supported by observed increases in the length of juveniles captured
from 2003 (15-21 cm) to 2008 (22-26 cm) along the southern shelf. Possible effects of the recent environmental
changes to the fishery management in the Falkland Islands are discussed.

A2-6082

The first annulus of otoliths: A tool for studying intra-annual growth among walleye
pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
Matthew T. Wilson, Kathy Mier and Annette Dougherty
Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand Point
Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA. E-mail: matt.wilson@noaa.gov

A2-6083

Warming seas and the migration of Atlantic mackerel
Kathryn Hughes1, Mark P. Johnson1 and Leonie Dransfeld2
1

2

Lab 203 MRI Annexe, Martin Ryan Institute, National University of Ireland, University Rd., Galway, County Galway, IrelandE-mail: K.Hughes4@nuigalway.ie
Marine Institute of Ireland, Rinville, Oranmore, Galway, County Galway, Ireland

Atlantic mackerel (Scomber scombrus) is a highly migratory species that is of high commercial value, having total
fishery catch worth €600 million, representing a value of almost €5 million to Ireland. The consensus migration
pattern is for feeding during winter months in the North Sea and the south of the Norwegian Sea, followed by
movement of the species to the Western European continental shelf edge during the spring and summer months
where spawning occurs. Long-term mackerel egg data from the ICES triennial survey (11 sample years from

113

A2

In temperate and sub-polar oceans, coastal populations of adult fishes are sustained by influxes of juveniles fromdisparate geographic locations. Individual growth occurs mostly during summer. Growing season characteristics(e.g. timing, duration, maximum growth rate) relate to life history strategy and are subject to climate-mediatedchanges in bottom-up forcing. Seasonal fluctuation in growth is reflected in otoliths by translucent (annuli) andopaque growth zones. Walleye pollock from the 2000 year class were available for this study from 14 researchcruises conducted in the western Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and eastern Bering Sea (EBS). Study objectives were to:1) use juveniles to determine the timing of first annulus formation, and 2) define the season of yearling growth.
Fifty percent of juveniles exhibited an annulus on 16 March 2001 (+ 11 d 95% CI). The growing season for
yearlings lasted 205 d (20 March to 12 October 2001); growth rate peaked on 2 July (0.58 mm d-1) and declined
thereafter into autumn. Growing season initiation coincided with springtime warming and concluded in latesummer as water temperatures exceeded the juvenile physiological optimum. If the climate continues to warm, aspredicted by the IPCC, we hypothesize that the GOA pollock growing season will first advance (start earlier) andthen shorten as temperatures exceed the physiological maximum for a longer fraction of the summer.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
1977 – 2007) were examined to investigate distribution and abundances of S. Scombrus spawning events. The
centres of gravity, inertia and anisotropy were calculated for egg density (all stages) and sea surface temperature.
The analyses supported previous studies; concluding that spawning events occur along the 200m isobath, with
spawning commencing around the Bay of Biscay in March/April and ending further North in Irish waters. The
centre of gravity of stage 1 eggs has shifted north during the ICES surveys, independent of effort, with an increasein the inertia or spread, of egg density. The centre of gravity of sea surface temperature (SST) remained within asmall window between 12 to 14°C, suggesting that S. scombrus tracks those temperatures and that SST plays animportant role in spawning events. Spatial and temporal gradients in temperature are being tested for evidence of
migration cues and associations with the spread of spawning aggregations.

A2-6092

Thermal acclimation by a coral reef fish
Jennifer M. Donelson, Philip L. Munday and Mark I. McCormick
ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville,
Queensland, 4811, Australia. E-mail: Jennifer.Donelson@jcu.edu.au

The capacity for organisms to acclimate and adapt to global warming is of vast importance for establishing the
likelihood of persistence of current populations. Climate change is predicted to increase sea temperature in thetropics by up to 3.0°C over the next decade. While there is evidence that water temperature affects metabolism,growth and condition of coral reef fish, it is unknown if juveniles have the potential to acclimate when given
adequate time. Offspring were produced by breeding pairs under current-day temperature conditions and split into
three treatments. Temperature treatments were the current-day average and temperatures that could become close
to the average for this region over the next 50-100 years (+1.5°C and +3.0°C than current-day). After one year,
testing of resting metabolic rates was completed at the mean summer temperature for the three treatments. Fishwhich developed at the highest treatment temperature of +3.0°C than the current-day average had significantly
lower MO2Rest than fish kept at the other lower treatment temperatures (current day and +1.5°C) and tested at thesummer average of the +3.0°C treatment. The reduction in MO2Rest of up to 69 mg O2 kg-1 h-1 is likely to represent
benefits to daily energy expenditure during the summer. However, these fish were found to have reduced growth
and were in poorer condition suggesting that production of acclimation to elevated temperature potentially also
represented an energetic cost.

A2-6094

Comparison of swimming performance at various acclimation temperatures for teleosts
inhabiting Japanese coastal waters
Yasuo Itoh1, Yukihiko Watanabe1, Yukio Nakamura2, Shuji Tsuchida1, Hideaki Kinoshita1, Takumi Setoguma1 andYasushi Minowa3
1

2
3

Central Laboratory, Marine Ecology Research Institute, 300 Iwawada, Onjukumachi, Isumigun, Chiba, 299-5105, Japan
E-mail: itoh@kaiseiken.or.jp
Marine Ecology Research Institute, Touwa-Edogawabashi Bldg. 7F, 347 Yamabukicho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 162-0801, Japan
Demonstration Laboratory, Marine Ecology Research Institute, 4-7-17 Arahama, Kashiwazaki, Niigata, 945-0322, JapanThe swimming performance of 24 species of Japanese coastal marine teleosts was measured using a circulatingwater treadmill at various acclimation temperatures. Trial fishes were acclimated at the three to five different fixed
temperatures for two or more weeks. The swimming curve formula, (V/L) · Tα = K (V: flow velocity, L: bodylength, T: swimming duration, α&K: constants), was used for calculating three swimming performance parameters,

(

3600

)

the maximum swimming speed, maximum sustained speed and swimming ability index s�a�i� = ∫ V dt 104 . The
0maximum swimming speeds were 6.7-25.1 body length (BL)/second at 10-32°C whereas the maximum sustained
speeds, 2.9-12.9 BL/s at 10-32°C. The ratio of the maximum sustained speed to the maximum swimming one was
0.14-0.74. Both the maximum swimming and maximum sustained speeds exhibited a good correlation with either
body length or body weight, but not with the coefficient of fatness. The swimming ability indices of 24 species
were in the range of 1.4-4.8. Regarding the temperature dependency of the swimming performance in 24 species,
if the highest performance in these parameters was regarded as 100%, then the maximum swimming speed andthe maximum sustained speed showed a range of 70-100% between the acclimation temperatures, and swimming
114

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
ability index showed a range of 65-100%. From these results, it was considered that the swimming performanceof these species had a tendency to maintain a constant level within the acclimation temperatures. This research
was supported by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

A2-6097

Spatial and temporal variability of chlorophyll a and their responses to marine
environments in the South China Sea
Shan Gao1, Hui Wang2 and Liu Guimei2
12College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Songling Rd. 238, Laoshan District, Qingdao, 266100,
PR China. E-mail: gaoshan_shining@163.com
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, 8 Dahuisi, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, PR China

The dynamics of marine ecosystem are largely influenced by atmospheric and marine environmental conditions.
In the South China Sea (SCS), the monsoon directly influences the ocean circulation and the mass transport
processes, especially the changes of horizontal circulation pattern and upwelling area/intensity. These processes
evoke changes in nutrient transport and of phytoplankton photosynthesis as evidenced by changes in chlorophyll a(Chl-a) distribution within different regions of the SCS. To understand the response dynamics of marine ecosystem
to environmental factors, the present study analysed oceanographic (physical and biochemical) data to examine
the spatial-temporal distributions of Chl-a concentration associated with marine environments for long periodsin the SCS. The results indicated that seasonal and spatial distributions of Chl-a concentration in the SCS wereprimarily influenced by the monsoon winds and hydrography, particularly the spatiotemporal patterns of high Chl-a
concentration in the region of summer upwelling off the east coast of Vietnam. Although inter-annual variability
in phytoplankton distributions is not obvious in the SCS, the analysis revealed a significant, anomalously low
phytoplankton biomass event in 1998. The study also presents a preliminary EOF analysis of remotely sensed
data that assessed basic characteristics of the response process of Chl-a to physical changes in the SCS. Such
research activities could be very important to gaining a mechanistic understanding of ecosystem responses to theclimate change in the SCS.

A2-6111

Population structure changes on size and age composition on Chilean hake (Merluccius
gayi gayi) and their association with environmental conditions
Claudio Gatica1, Claudio Castillo-Jordán2, Sebastian Vasquez1 and Rubén Alarcón1
1
2

Instituto de Investigación Pesquera, Colón 2780, Talcahuano, Chile. E-mail: cgatica@inpesca.cl
Laboratorio de Evaluación de Poblaciones Marinas (EPOMAR), Departamento de Oceanografía, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y
Oceanográficas, Universidad de Concepción, 4070423, Chile

115

A2

The Chilean hake is one of the most important resources in the South-Central zone off Chile (34º00’S-41º00’S)with catches around 55 mil ton in the year 2009. This species is exploited by both artisanal and industrial fleets.
Over the period 1992 to 2009, the population exhibited a strong decrease in abundance, particularly starting in
2002, which was attributed to the combined effects of increases in jumbo squid predation and fishery catches. The
presence of jumbo squid is associated to oceanic warmer conditions and availability of prey (Chilean hake, jackmackerel and small pelagic). The analysis detected differences on the size and age composition in the catches
and also in the population parameters estimated by direct and indirect assessment. Furthermore, age studies
indicate that individuals within the present population have a smaller size-at-age than historically observed. Thischange in the population’s structure is clearly apparent in the negative trend in the total length of individuals since
2002-2003. The proposed hypothesis is that the different sources of mortality have diminished the abundance ofindividuals with greater capacity for growth as characterized by high Loo (asymptotic length) and k parameters(growth coefficient).

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6112Annual trends in seasonal stock- and life-history-specific ocean migration of juvenile
Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha: An application of genetic identification
techniques
Strahan Tucker1, Marc Trudel1, David W. Welch1,2, John R. Candy1, John F.T. Morris1, Mary E. Thiess1, Colin
Wallace1 and Terry D. Beacham1
1

2

Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd., Nanaimo, BC, V9T 6N7, Canada
E-mail: Strahan.tucker@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Present address: Kintama Research Corporation, 4737 Vista View Crescent, Nanaimo, BC, V9V 1N8, Canada

Marine survival of salmon co-varies with climate and ocean conditions at both small and large spatial scales.
Many factors could influence juvenile salmon movement and distribution, including large-scale oceanic transport
and temperatures as well as the distribution of prey and predators. Juvenile (n=5973) and immature (n= 593)
Chinook salmon were collected from coastal Washington to southeast Alaska in coastal trawl surveys from June
to March 1998-2008. Large fluctuations were observed in ocean temperatures and in primary and secondary
production during this decade. Using DNA stock identification, we reconstructed changes in stock composition
for different years, seasons and regions. Individuals were allocated to 12 regional stocks. Most juvenile salmon,
except those from the Columbia River, remained in relative close proximity to their natal rivers in their first year
at sea, irrespective of smolt class. In contrast, Columbia River fish generally undertook a northward migrationthat varied among stocks and smolt class. Summer catches in all regions were dominated by Columbia River
spring yearling fish suggesting rapid migration. In contrast very few Columbia River fall sub-yearling fish wererecovered north of Vancouver Island. Columbia River salmon became minor components in catches in fall andwinter as fish originating from other southern stocks dominated catches off Vancouver Island while northern
British Columbia and Alaska stocks dominated northern regions during these time periods. Trends in proportional
regional stock compositions were generally consistent between years suggesting migration patterns are fairly
constant despite large fluctuations in ocean conditions.

A2-6120

Behavioral response of Japanese amberjack, Seriola quinqueradiata, to sea watertemperature rise caused by thermal effluent
Masao Miura1, Toshiro Fujisawa2, Hiroshi Yamada3 and Takeya Hara1
1

2
3

Central Laboratory, Marine Ecology Research Institute, 300 Iwawada, Onjukumachi, Isumigun, Chiba, 299-5105, Japan
E-mail: m-miura@kaiseiken.or.jp
Former staff member of Marine Ecology Research Institute, Japan
Demonstration Laboratory, Marine Ecology Research Institute, 4-7-17 Arahama, Kashiwazaki, Niigata, 945-0322, Japan

In order to obtain data to estimate the impacts of sea water temperature rise on the spatial distribution andmigration of Japanese amberjack, Seriola quinqueradiata, field experiments using two large net pens (12m indiameter, 8-9 m deep) were conducted in waters around a nuclear power plant. One pen was set in the plume area,
and the other (the control) was set outside of the plume. Increases ranging from 0 to 5°C were usually observedin the surface layer (0-4 m deep) inside the pen set in the plume area. Japanese amberjack kept in the pensshowed clear behavioral responses, preference or avoidance, to water temperature. We estimated the preferredwater temperature range by means of Jacobs’ electivity index. The fish mainly swam in the surface warmer layer
in which temperature was above 14°C in January and February, while they preferred the deeper layer in which
temperature was below 28°C in August and September. The preferred temperature range was considered tochange seasonally, and a positive correlation was found between the upper/lower limits of the preferred range andtheir habitat temperature measured in the control.
This research program was conducted under contract with the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan.

116

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6139

Seasonal lipid and fatty acids dynamics in Leptoclinus maculatus larvae from Svalbard
waters in relation to abiotic and biotic factors
Svetlana A. Murzina1, Stig Falk-Petersen2, Jørgen Berge3 and Nina N. Nemova1
1
2
3

Institute of Biology, Karelian Research Centre RAS, Petrozavodsk, 185910, Russia. E-mail: imagination@onego.ru
Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, N-9296, Norway
The University Centre in Svalbard, Longyearbyen, N-9171, Norway

Leptoclinus maculatus from the family Stichaeidae is a dominant and ecologically important fish species in Arctic
waters that has a pelagic larva stage but is benthic as an adult. In the era of rapid climate change, the ecologyof these important species and their role in the Arctic environment remains largely unstudied. Larvae feed on
lipid-rich Calanus diet, and are thus a key prey species transferring lipid and energy from lower to higher trophic
levels including predatory fish, sea birds and seals. We investigated the lipid and fatty acids profiles of flesh andlipid sac from larvae and juveniles Leptoclinus maculatus caught in summer (July) and winter (April) from two
fjords – Isfjord, Kongsfjord and ice edge area at 80ºN Svalbard. Larvae were lipid rich and stored neutral lipids
and their compounds predominantly in a lipid sac which they use for growth and development. Lipids stored inmuscle/somatic tissue appear to provide energy for active movement in pelagic water layers and under ice cover.
The fatty acid profile changed in relation to seasonal changes in diet, temperature of water and water currents.
This work is supported by STATOIL ARCTOS Programm, University Centre in Svalbard, Norwegian Polar
Institute, The Scottish Association for Marine Science.

A2-6142

Modeling the distribution and abundance of pelagic fish species as a function ofenvironmental variables
Nandipha M. Twatwa, Dawit Yemane and Janet C. Coetzee
Marine and Coastal Management, Department of Environmental Affairs, Rogge Bay 8012, Private Bag X2, Cape Town, South Africa
E-mail: Ntwatwa@deat.gov.za

117

A2

The densities of anchovy (Engraulis capensis), sardine (Sardinops sagax) and redeye (Etrumeus whiteheadi) in
the southern Benguela system have never been linked to environmental fluctuations. Here, we explored the meansby which environmental variability may be linked to changes in small pelagic fish abundance. Biomass estimatesof these three small pelagic species off the coast of South Africa have been obtained annually by means of hydroacoustic research surveys since 1984. Estimates of abundance obtained from these fishery-independent surveys
are an essential part of the management of the South African pelagic resources. We used information collected
adult spawning stock over 8-year period (2000-2007), together with environmental variables routinely collectedduring these surveys. We also looked at how the relationships change in response to fluctuations in the combined
total biomass of these pelagic fish species over time. Results indicate that environmental preferences of small
pelagic fish in the southern Benguela can be identified and quantified using GAMs. Abundance and distributionof small pelagic fish was different spatially and temporally, and supposedly temperature-driven. As the population
declines, the majority of redeye remains on the west, mainly offshore on the south-western part while anchovyand sardine habitats tend to shrink along their traditional south-western (WAB) and offshore on the south, andrather become shifted eastwards. Our results suggest that the environmental dynamics may influence the spatial
distribution and abundance of small pelagics in the southern Benguela ecosystem. This study is expected tocontribute towards understanding the likely impact of climate change on small pelagic.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6160

Environmental impacts on long-term variation in recruitment success of Japanese sardine
Haruka Nishikawa1, Ichiro Yasuda1, Sachihiko Itoh1, Hideharu Sasaki2 and Yoshikazu Sasai31

2
3

Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 1648639, Japan
E-mail: harukan@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Japan Agency Marine Earth Science and Technology, Earth Simulator Ctr., Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 2360001, Japan
Japan Agcy Marine Earth Science and Technology, Frontier Res. Ctr. Global Change, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 2360001, Japan

A drastic population change in Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, has been related to environmental
indices, for example, sea surface temperature (SST) or mixed layer depth (MLD) in the Kuroshio Extension region,
downstream from spawning grounds in the south of Japan. In the present study, outputs of a highly spatially- andtemporally-resolved general ocean circulation model OFES were used to detect environmental fluctuations aroundthe Kuroshio and its extension, which could not properly be assessed in previous studies due to the high variability
in the path and structure of the flow. Stream coordinate analysis from 1951 to 2006 revealed that SST and winter
MLD in the narrow frontal zone along the Kuroshio were significantly related to Japanese sardine recruitment:
recruitment rates are high in the cool SST and deep MLD period and low in the warm SST and shallow MLD
period. The importance of the frontal zone was supported by particle tracking experiments performed on sardine
spawning grounds, as significant amounts of eggs and larvae were simulated to be transported there for most of
the years. This frontal zone is highly productive and the production depends on the nutrients supplied throughdeep winter mixed layer. These results suggest that interannual variation in winter MLD along the Kuroshio axis
and consequent fluctuation in food availability is responsible for the drastic fluctuations in the stock productivityof Japanese sardine.

A2-6161

Comparing the influence of oceanographic fronts on interannual changes in the
distribution and relative abundance of sardine in the California and Southern Benguela
Current systems
Rubén Rodríguez-Sánchez1, Carl van der Lingen2, Marlene Manzano3, Larry Hutchings2 and Héctor Villalobos1
1

2
3

Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas (CICIMAR - I.P.N.), Apartado Postal 592, La Paz, B.C.S., C.P. 23090, México
E-mail: rrodrig@ipn.mx
Marine and Coastal Management (MCM), Private Bag X2, Rogge Bay 8012, South Africa
Facultad de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa, Paseo Claussen s/n, Mazatlán, Sinaloa, México

Marked changes in the distribution and relative abundance of sardine Sardinops sagax populations in the
California and Southern Benguela Current systems have been reported (CCS and SBCS, respectively), with thesechanges occurring over recent decades during periods of steadily increasing population size in both systems. Such
distributional changes may be environmentally-mediated. We assess whether mesoscale frontal activity could bea mechanism underlying latitudinal and longitudinal shifts in sardine distribution in CCS and SBCS, respectively.
Over the period 1980-1997 sardine in the CCS showed a progressive northward shift in the location of highest
relative abundance, suggesting northward changes in the location of favorable conditions for young sardines along
the frontal zone where the southward California Current and the inshore, poleward California Countercurrent(CcC) converge. We proxied interannual variability along the frontal zone by developing monthly time-seriesof the frequency of SST fronts in different areas along the California–Baja California coast using the singleimage, edge-detection method applied to monthly satellite data. The relationship between sardine abundance and
SST front frequency indices suggests that recruitment increases where optimal front-frequency levels are foundand declines where they are suboptimal. We use a similar approach to assess whether the eastward shift in the
distribution of Southern Benguela sardine was also environmentally mediated by examining frontal activity datain the period 1985-2005, from different areas along the Agulhas Bank, where seasonal and interannual variation ininteractions between a major surface boundary current (the westward-flowing Agulhas Current) and an eastwardmoving, coastal counter-current also occur.

118

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6187

Relationship between environmental variability and distribution of common squid(Todarodes pacificus) paralarvae in the northern East China Sea
Jung Jin Kim and Suam Kim
Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University, Busan, 608-737, R Korea. E-mail: theocean81@hotmail.com

Understanding factors affecting the processes impacting the transport and distribution of early life stages is essential
for the ability to make robust predictions of year-class strength of marine species. To reveal the transport process
pattern of common squid (Todarodes pacificus) paralarvae, we carried out ichthyoplankton surveys using Bongo
nets in the northern East China Sea during July 2006-2008. Most paralarvae were captured in the southeastern
Jeju Island and the north of Kyushu Island where water temperatures at 50 m ranged from 15 to 20°C and salinities
were 33 to 34 psu. Based on re-analysis of climate information, Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) wasused to track transport routes of eggs and paralarvae into the sampling region. Results from particle tracking
experiments indicated that paralarvae produced in the spawning area (i.e., southern East China Sea) would requirea drifting period of 10 to 30 days to reach the sampling region, with drift duration influencing recruit success inthe following year. We also examined the relationship between paralarvae distribution and ocean environmental
characteristics such as the expansion of low salinity water from the Changjiang River, annual variation in thestrength of Tsushima Warm Current, temporal and spatial distribution of chlorophyll a concentrations, and climate
variability in the study area.

A2-6200

Are crustacean landings from Portuguese waters driven by environment variables?
Ana Moreira, Paulo Fonseca, Cristina Silva, Aida Campos, Maria de Fátima Borges and Miguel Santos
INRB/IPIMAR, Portuguese Institute for Fisheries Research, Av. de Brasilia, 1449-006, Lisboa, Portugal. E-mail: moreiratrue@gmail.com

119

A2

Crustaceans constitute a highly valuable component of the Portuguese continental bottom trawling fisheries
and are currently targeted by about 30 vessels. The fishery is carried out mainly off the south and, to a lesser
extent, the south-western coasts, at depths ranging from about 150 to more than 600 metres depending upon thetarget species. Target species include Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) a benthic burrowing species, andseveral benthopelagic shrimps including deepwater red shrimps (Aristeus antennatus, Aristeomorpha foliacea,
Aristaeopsis edwardsiana) and the shallow water rose shrimp (Parapenaeus longirostris) but the fishery is mainly
constituted by catches of Norway lobster and rose shrimp. During a 23-yr period (from 1986 through 2008), thelandings of both species were highly variable, with that of rose shrimp being particularly striking (e.g., 800 to2000 tons in 1998 and 1990 or 1000 to about 140 tons between 2003 and 2004). The fact that the different species
may be (and often are) captured during the same fishing trip makes it difficult to correctly attribute the true effort
exerted on each of them. The latter adds a further level of complexity when trying to disentangle fisheries-induced
from environment-induced fluctuations in landings. In that regard, rose shrimp may be considered as a pivotal
species since fishers reorient their effort towards the other main target species (Norway lobster) depending upon
fluctuations in the abundance of rose shrimp. In the present study, we examined whether the landings of both
Norway lobster and rose shrimp from 1986 until 2008 were correlated with environmental variables such as thewinter NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and upwelling indexes, local sea surface temperature and rainfall, andrunoff from major rivers to explore the potential factors underpinning the recruitment variability in these species
as evidenced by the marked fluctuations in abundance and subsequent landings.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6217

Climate change impacts on the ocean distributions of Pacific salmon
Omar I. Abdul-Aziz and Nathan J. Mantua
Climate Impacts Group, Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, and School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University ofWashington, 1122 Boat St., Seattle, WA, 98195-5020, USA. Email: omaraziz@u.washington.edu

The ocean distributions of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are strongly related to sea surface temperatures(SSTs). Over 50 years of high-seas surveys indicate that major salmon species are surface oriented, spending
most of their time at depth <40m. Since anthropogenic climate change is predicted to increase SSTs in the
21st century, climate change will likely impact the distribution, growth, survival, abundance, and productivity ofPacific salmon. This research used observed thermal limits for Pacific salmon to evaluate the impacts of past andprojected future SST changes on the high-seas habitat amount and distribution of Pacific salmon. We definedreference summer and winter thermal habitats for sockeye (O. nerka), chum (O. keta), pink (O. gorbuscha), coho
(O. kisutch), chinook (O. tshawytscha), and steelhead (O. mykiss) salmon. Time-averaged mean monthly SST
data from 18 major global climate models (GCMs) for the 20th and 21st centuries are regridded to a reference
resolution and corrected for biases comparing with historical observations. Historical ocean thermal habitat areas
and distributions are analyzed and mapped considering the warm and cool phases of Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) to evaluate the impacts of natural inter-decadal climate variability. Potential future changes are quantified
under three scenarios of lower (B1), medium (A1B), and higher (A2) greenhouse gas emissions. Results revealthat changes in 20th century were within a few percent of historical references. In contrast, much larger reductionsof salmon distributions are projected in both summer and winter seasons by middle through the end of the 21st
century.

A2-6224

Geographic variation in Pacific herring growth and population responses to regime shifts
in the North Pacific basin
Bernard A. Megrey1, Kenneth A. Rose2, Jacob F. Schweigert3, Douglas Hay3, Francisco E. Werner4, Yasuhiro
Yamanaka5 and Shin-ichi Ito6
1

2

3
4
5
6

NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way, NE, WA, 98115, USA
E-mail: bern.megrey@noaa.gov
Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, and Coastal Fisheries Institute, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA,
70803, USA
Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, BC, V9R 5K6, Canada
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd., New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA
Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5 Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0810, Japan
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan

Pacific herring populations at eight Pacific Rim locations were examined for basin-wide geographic variations
in growth due to environmental influences on marine productivity and population-specific responses to regime
shifts. Temperature and zooplankton abundance from a 3D-NEMURO simulation model of lower trophic level
NPZ dynamics from 1948 to 2002 was used as input to a herring bioenergetics growth model. Herring populations
from the California Current, West Coast Vancouver Island, Prince William Sound, Togiak Alaska, western Bering
Sea, Sea of Okhotsk, Sakhalin, and Peter the Great Bay were examined. Changes in age-5 herring wet weight
were used to compare the stocks. We applied the sequential t-test analysis to detect regime shifts in simulated
temperatures, zooplankton and herring growth rates to identify statistical shifts in their average values. We
explored spatial relationships using cluster and principal component analyses. Populations were compared amonglocations to determine if herring responses were consistent. Results from cluster analyses indicate close spatial
associations among herring populations from adjacent ecosystems. Spatial associations were less evident in thetemperature and zooplankton data series. The regime shifts analyses showed an inverse relationship between
temperature and zooplankton abundance, and evidence of bottom-up control on herring growth patterns. Principal
component analyses also revealed regime shift patterns and, for some variables, showed opposite loadings for thewestern vs. the eastern Pacific basin locations. Implications of these results are discussed with respect to the rangeof responses to climate variation or change that can be expected from a single, pan Pacific species.

120Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6246

Northern vs. southern European Seas: Investigating spatio-temporal patterns of Mullus
surmuletus distribution in relation to environmental changes
Christos D. Maravelias1 and Alex Tidd2
12

Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR), 46.7 km Athens-Sounio Ave., 19013 Anavyssos, Greece
E-mail: cmaravel@ath.hcmr.gr
Centre for the Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS)

Two diametrical regional seas of Europe, the North Sea and the Aegean Sea, have both shown increases in meanbottom sea water temperature during the mid 1990s, which appear to be part of the global warming trend rather
than a local phenomenon. The present study analyses the changes in both spatial and temporal variability of
red mullet Mullus surmuletus, an increasingly important commercial demersal fish, in response to the observed
climatic trends. Commercial demersal trawler time series of species production (landings) was further investigatedto examine whether the landings have been affected by the climatic changes (water warming). Analyses of catch
data suggest distinct shifts in the pattern of distribution and habitat use of red mullet in European waters. The
observed changes in the spatial aggregation of the species are discussed in the light of effects on fisheries andmanagement strategies.

A2-6251

Recruitment and migration of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) to southern Korean
coastal waters in relation to variations in the bottom cold waters originating from theJapan/East Sea
Sukgeun Jung
National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, 408-1 Sirang-ri, Gijang-eup, Gijang-gun, Busan, 619-902, R Korea
E-mail: Sukgeun.jung@gmail.com

121

A2

The two Gadoid species, Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and Alaska pollock (Thergra chalcogramma), havebeen traditionally important commercial fish species in the Japan/East Sea. In Korean coastal waters, global
warming has apparently increased sea surface temperatures by ca. 1°C during the past 40 years whereas bottom
temperatures have not significantly increased. However, since the late 1990s, bottom temperatures in the southern
Korean coastal waters during the winter spawning season have significantly decreased, probably related withstrengthened mixed layers and increased frequency of cold-water penetration from the Japan/East Sea. I speculate
the decreased bottom temperatures favor the recruitment of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) whose eggs are
demersal and hatch at 5-12°C. Recruitment of cod seemed to decrease from the 1950s to the 1990s, as catchlevels were lower compared with the 1920-1940s. Since 1998, however, catch has continued to increase from
0.5 x 103 metric tons in 1998 to 7.2 x 103 tons in 2007, reaching a record high. In addition to the temperaturechanges, annual catch of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii), an important dietary component for Pacific cod, also
has dramatically increased from 1.9 x 103 tons in 2002 to 43.8 x 103 tons in 2008, indicating that bottom-up control
by Pacific herring and zooplankton also could have helped recruitment of Pacific cod in Korean coastal waters. I
am currently investigating the relationship of recruitment and migration of cod, pollock and herring with respect
to variations in the Tsushima warm current and bottom cold waters in the Korea Strait.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6254

Contrasting responses in larval and juvenile growth rates of anchovy and sardine to a
climate-ocean regime shift: Implications for their population dynamics
Motomitsu Takahashi1, Yoshiro Watanabe2, Akihiko Yatsu1 and Hiroshi Nishida3
1

2
3

Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 1551-8 Taira-machi, Nagasaki, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan
E-mail: takahamt@fra.affrc.go.jp
Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa,236-8648, Japan

We examined variability in growth rates during early life stages for Japanese anchovy and sardine in response to a
climate-ocean regime shift in the late 1990s in the western North Pacific. Late larval and early juvenile anchovyand sardine were collected in the Kuroshio-Oyashio transitional waters using a subsurface trawl net in May-June
during 1996-2002. Growth rates during the larval and early juvenile stages were backcalculated using otolith
daily increments for both species. Our previous studies in the transitional waters demonstrated that the abundanceof age-0 recruits was a positive function of the growth rates. Decline of the sardine growth rates and increaseof the anchovy growth rates occurred simultaneously after 1999 with increase in temperature in the transitional
waters. Growth-environment analysis revealed that increased temperature enhanced anchovy growth rate, but
reduced prey concentrations diminished sardine growth rate. The Kuroshio Extension (KE) was intensified andthe position of the KE shifted northward during the survey period. When sardine population began to collapse
and anchovy tended to flourish in the late 1980s, the KE was strengthened and shifted northward similar to what
happened in the late 1990s. When sardine population began to expand and anchovy shrank in the early 1970s, theKE weakened, contrary to the late 1990s. Our results suggest that contrasting responses in growth and survival
processes to decadal changes in states of the KE caused the replacement of dominant species for small pelagic
fishes, anchovy and sardine, in the western North Pacific.

A2-6255

An investigation of the relationship between bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) catch andthree dimensional thermal structures
Akiko Takano1, Hidekatsu Yamazaki1, Osamu Honda2, Kotaro Yokawa3 and Hiroshi Shono3
1

2
3

Laboratory of Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, 4-5-7 Konan, Minato-ku, Tokyo,108-8477, Japan. E-mail: takanoa@affrc.go.jp
Japan Fisheries Information Service Center, Tokyo, 104-0055, Japan
National Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries, Fisheries Research Agency, Shizuoka, 424-8633, Japan

We have examined how subsurface thermal structures affect the distribution and abundance of bigeye tuna(Thunnus obesus) caught by Japanese surface longliners. The longliners operated in the Kuroshio Extension(KE) area throughout the year to target swordfish and blue shark, and bigeye tuna is one of their secondary target
species. Our analyses indicated that the annual fluctuation of bigeye tuna catch from 2004 to 2007 was too large to
be attributed solely to annual changes in abundance, especially in winter. Analysis of the thermal structure at each
operational point indicated that the highest catches were located in areas where the 15°C isothermal depths werearound 200 – 280 m, west of Shatsky rise in winter. Similar thermal structures also occurred in the KE fronts orat the edge of warm-core rings (WCR) that had been pinched off from the KE meanders. High correlations wereobserved between the abundance of bigeye tuna in catches and the number of sets deployed within areas where thethermal structure was expected to be good for the catch. The result of this study strongly indicated that longline
catch of bigeye tuna in winter was affected by the thermal structure and identified the thermal signature of water
masses inhabited by this species during the daytime.

122

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6260

Effects of climate variability on the distribution, abundance and habitat usage of juvenile
salmonids in the coastal waters of the northern California Current
Cheryl A. Morgan1, William T. Peterson2, Joseph P. Fisher3 and Jesse F. Lamb3123

Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Oregon State University, Hatfield Marine Science Center, 2030 South Marine
Science Dr., Newport, OR, 97365, USA. E-mail: cheryl.morgan@oregonstate.edu
NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, 2030 South Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR,
97365, USA
Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis,
OR, 97331, USA

Each June and September from 1998 until present, hydrographic, plankton, and juvenile salmon surveys are
conducted off Oregon and Washington, USA along 8 transect lines between 44.6° and 48°N latitude, with stations
ranging from 2 to 60 km offshore. During the study period, large shifts in the physical and biological conditions in
the northern California current occurred, including the 1997/98 El Niño, the 1999 La Niña, positive and negativevalues of the PDO, and years of strongly contrasting upwelling intensity. These varying conditions provide
insights into how abundances, distribution, survival and habitat usage of Chinook and coho salmon may change
in response to climate changes. Abundances of Chinook and coho salmon were significantly correlated withwater depth (negatively), chlorophyll (positively) and copepod biomass (positively). Abundances of yearlingand sub-yearling Chinook salmon, but not yearling coho salmon, were correlated with temperature (negatively).
Abundances are higher during years when the PDO was negative. The strength of coastal upwelling in June
influences the offshore extent of salmonid distributions – when upwelling is strong the fish are found at greater the
distance offshore; no correlation was found between upwelling strength and fish distribution in September whenupwelling is weak-to-nonexistent. The optimal physical habitat parameters seem to be strong upwelling, highchlorophyll concentrations, and a boreal copepod community each of which is influenced by the PDO. Climatechange scenarios that include a weakening of the PDO or of upwelling strength, suggest a negative impact on
salmon.

A2-6270

Changes in the life history traits of Japanese anchovy and sardine
Yuu Katsukawa1, Yoshiro Watanabe1, Hiroshi Okamura2, Tatsuya Suzuki3 and Hisashi Nakategawa4
1
2

3
4

Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakanoku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan. E-mail: yu@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
National Research Institute of Far Seas Fisheries, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa
236-8648, Japan
Chiba Prefectural Fisheries Technology Research Center, 2492 Hiraiso, Chikura, Minamiboso, Chiba, 295-0024, Japan
Kanagawa Prefectural Fisheries Technology Center, Jyogajima, Misaki, Miura, Kanagawa, 238-0237, Japan

123

A2

When environmental conditions vary, fitness benefit accrues to individuals from the changes of life history. Thechanges of life history affect the vital rates and population dynamics. Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus)
and Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) were documented long-term fluctuations in abundance. As yet,time series data of life history traits are lacking and trends reported only in fragments. Moreover, it has not yet
been explored how changes of life history influence the population dynamics. In this study, we evaluate howchanges in life history traits (e.g. body size, body condition and reproductive investment) for Japanese anchovyand sardine. Pacific stock of anchovy and sardine were divided into three sub populations (northern, middle andsouthern population). We described trends in the indices for individual stocks and compared characteristic ofstocks. We then examine whether trends in the indices are thought to be the response to the population density.
In addition, we predict the changes of vital rates using parameter of growth and maturation. Time series data
(body length, body weight, gonad weight, sex, and date of capture) from 1960s to 2000s in the Pacific stocks ofJapanese anchovy and sardine were obtained. We compiled data from various agencies. In the 1980s, the bodylength and body weight of Japanese sardine decreased, but the age at maturation increased. Because the growthrate decreased in 1980s, the sexual maturation delayed. Life history traits of Japanese sardine compensatorily
responded to abundance changes, whereas those of Japanese anchovy responded differently with its abundancechanges.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6280

The rise and fall of snake pipefish (Entelurus aequoreus L.) off North Scotland
Jörn O. Schmidt and Rüdiger Voss
Sustainable Fishery, Department of Economics, University of Kiel, Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1, Kiel, 24118, Germany
E-mail: jschmidt@ifm-geomar.de

Global change, especially the warming of seawater, has led to the observation of changing distributions of fish
species in the past decades. The last decade has seen an unprecedented increase in snake pipefish (Entelurus
aequoreus L.) off the British Northern coasts and the North Sea. Well documented from larval and trawl surveys aswell as from reports of fishermen and the interested public, this increase was suspected to be caused by increasingwater temperatures. We add information from the international herring larval survey (IHLS), which is performed
yearly in September in the area of the Orkney and Shetland Isles, on larval abundance of snake pipefish. The
dramatic increase of larval snake pipefish was seen from 2002 onwards. A peak in 2005 was then followed by asteep decrease and near zero abundance in 2008. Recent, anecdotal reports from several locations at the British
North East coast also state a decrease of snake pipefish. Thus the question arises, if the snake pipefish “outbreak”
is over and what was its cause? The interesting point is that the environment has not changed again, thus aninternal reason or a single event seem to be the cause of the sudden increase. Decadal fluctuations could, at leastfrom the available dataset (1984 – 2008), not be seen.

A2-6314 (Cancelled)

Warming influences productivity of lobster stocks in SE Australia
Caleb Gardner and Stewart Frusher
Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 49, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, 7001
E-mail: stewart.frusher@utas.edu.au

Nestled at the interface of three water masses in southern Australia, the southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii, issubject to changes in temperature as these water masses alter in their dynamics. By using a 16 year mark recapture
dataset we are able to link temperature changes to growth in two different regions that are influenced to different
extents by these water masses. These changes, which influence both growth and reproduction, are discussed inrelation to predicted temperature increases and its impact on assessment of the fishery.

A2-6317

Contrasting ecological responses of two commercially important finfish to severe tropical
cyclones: A sullen serranid and a lively lethrinid
Andrew Tobin1, Audrey Schlaff, Besse Krause, David W. Welch, Tony Ayling, Hugh Sweatman, Paul Marshall,
Brigid Kerrigan and Jeff Maynard
1

Fishing and Fisheries Research Centre, James Cook University, Townsville, 4811, Australia. E-mail: andrew.tobin@jcu.edu.auWith climate change scenarios predicting more severe tropical cyclones (TCs), understanding the effects ofthese storms on fisheries productivity is mandatory. A long-term commercial fishery data set has been explored
to describe the ecological response of a serranid (Plectropomus leopardus) and lethrinid (Lethrinus miniatus)
to severe TCs. The two species dominate catches from a commercial line fishery operating within the Great
Barrier Reef (GBR), northeastern Australia. Between 1994 and 2009, two TC events (from a total of 12) caused
significant though starkly contrasting behavioral responses in P. leopardus and L. miniatus. In March 1997, thelong-lived (24 day) category 2 TC Justin caused mild reef damage but significant water cooling. In March 2009
the short-lived (5 day) category 5 TC Hamish, caused wide-spread structural damage though little change in watertemperatures. The contrasting response of both fish species was consistent between these TC events even thoughboth events were vastly different. P. leopardus became significantly less frequent in catches while L. miniatus

124

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
became more prevalent, particularly within the mid-section of the GBR. These responses were long lasting andchallenging, as live export of P. leopardus is the main stay of economic profitability. With the threat of increasingstorm severity, it is mandatory to understand both the immediate and lagging effects of these events. Of equal
importance is the need to consider how best to equip managers and fishers with tools appropriate for mitigating
the negative effects associated with severe weather events when they occur.

A2-6319

Are geographically distinct populations similarly impacted by ocean acidification?
(Oysters as a case study)
Haruko Kurihara1, Yuji Hiratsuka1, Takamasa Asai2, Atsushi Ishimatsu2, Laura Parker3 and Pauline Ross3
1

2
3

Transdisciplinary Research Organization for Subtropical Island Studies, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa,
903-0213, Japan. E-mail: harukoku@e-mail.jp
Institute for East China Sea Research, Nagasaki University, 1551-7 Tairamachi, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan
School of Natural Sciences, College of Health and Science, University of Western Sydney, Penrith South DC1797, Sydney, NSW,
Australia

An extensive number of studies have evaluated the effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms, finding in
general, negative impacts on several different marine calcifiers. Most of these studies, however, have dealt witha single species, in a single population in a single geographic region. Since geographically distinct populations
may vary genetically from each other and experience different environment conditions, their responses to ocean
acidification have a potential to differ between populations. Indeed, coccolithophores have been found to respondto high CO2 depending on the distinct strain under investigation; although the methodological difference between
studies makes the interpretation of the results difficult. Additionally, several other studies conducted to determine
the effect of ocean acidification on commercially important marine shellfishes have used aquafarming organisms,
which may vary in response to the natural population. Accordingly, here we measure if geographically distinct
populations within Japan and between Australian and Japan responded to ocean acidification (CO2 1,000ppm, pH
7.8) at the fertilization and veliger larval stages of Crassostrea gigas (Pacific oysters). Three natural (Nagasaki,
Hiroshima, Aomori) and three aquafarming (Nagasaki, Hiroshima, Miyagi) Japanese populations and one
aquafarming oyster population from Australia (Port Stephens, NSW) of C. gigas were used. Here we found forthe first time that the responses to ocean acidification can differ between distinct populations.

A2-6331

Metamorphosis is closely associated with condition factor in Japanese anchovy in the
Pacific coast waters of central Japan
Kinuyo Fukamichi, Yoshiro Watanabe, Isamu Mitani and Tomohiko Kawamura

Body length composition of commercial catches of late larval Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) has
been known to vary seasonally in Sagami Bay on the Pacific coast of central Japan. This implies that sizeat-metamorphosis from larval to juvenile stage seasonally changes probably depending on seasonal change intemperature and other environment factors in the Bay. We collected late larval anchovy 2-3 times a monthfrom March 2008 to September 2009 and assigned them to early and late metamorphosing stages by examining
deposition of guanine on the body. Standard length (L) of metamorphosing larvae changed seasonally, being small
in summer and large in winter. Condition factor (C) of larvae changed seasonally as well, high in summer and low
in winter, but C of metamorphosing larvae was nearly constant through seasons. Midpoint C of metamorphosing
larvae was about 7.3, which may be defined as a threshold of C for metamorphosis of larvae to the juvenilestage. As growth in body weight relative to body length was faster in summer than in other seasons, larvae attain
threshold C of 7.3 at a smaller SL in summer than in the other three seasons. Seasonal growth rate change in bodyweight relative to body length (= C) seems to be a factor regulating size-at-metamorphosis in Japanese anchovy.

125

A2

Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakanoku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
E-mail: ywatanab@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6334

Comparative reproductive ecology of Japanese anchovy, Engraulis japonicus, in different
current areas off Japan
Mika Suhara1, Yoshiro Watanabe1, Yuu Katsukawa1, Yasuo Mori2, Satoshi Katayama3, Masayuki Yamamoto4 andTomohiko Kawamura1
1

2
3
4

Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
E-mail: suhara@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Kushiro Fisheries Experiment Station, 2-6 Hamamachi, Kushiro, 085-0024, Japan
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, 6-31-1 Nagai, Yokosuka, 238-0316, Japan
Kagawa Fisheries Experiment Station, 75-5 Yashima-higasicho, Takamatsu, 761-0111, JapanThe Japanese anchovy population increased in the 1990s with the climate-ocean regime shift in the late 1980s.
With the population increase, their spawning grounds expanded from the subtropical Kuroshio Current (KC)to the subarctic Oyashio Current (OC) areas. We compared standard length (SL), gonadosomatic index (GSI),
and condition factor (CF) of adult anchovy among OC, KC and its branch of Tsushima Current (TC) areas anddiscussed differences in reproductive ecology of anchovy among the areas. The mature anchovy were collectedin spring and summer from the three current (OC, KC, TC) areas. In early summer, SL, GSI and CF were largest
in OC area among the three areas. SL and GSI decreased in all areas in late summer. CF greatly decreased in OC
area from early (14.1 ± 1.2) to late summer (9.8 ± 0.8), but stayed at a relatively high level in KC (11.2 ± 1.0) andTC (10.5 ± 1.5) areas. GSI decreased in all areas in late summer, most remarkably from in OC area from 7.4±2.7
to 0.3±0.2 compared to KC area from 4.4±1.5 to 1.4±1.3 and in TC from 1.6±1.6 to 1.1±2.0. This study found thatanchovy had more concentrated spawning activity in summer in the OC area compared to a prolonged spawningseason in KC and TC areas.

A2-6343

Influence of environmental factors on the distributions of Pacific saury in the northwestern
Pacific Ocean
Chen-Te Tseng1,2, Chi-Lu Sun2, Su-Zan Yeh2, Shih-Chin Chen1 and Wei-Cheng Su1
1
2

Fisheries Research Institute, Keelung, 202, Taiwan, ROC. E-mail:cttseng@mail.tfrin.gov.tw
Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, 106, Taiwan, ROC

The logbook data of 2006-2008 Taiwanese Pacific saury fishery in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the MODIS
satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data of the same period were analyzed to explore the relationshipbetween the saury fishing grounds and the SST fronts extracted using an edge-detection histogram based on the
Cayula-Cornillon algorithm. Results showed that catch per unit effort (CPUE) of the saury fishery was at an
average of 18.5 metric tons/day/boat and the fishing grounds concentrated in 38-49°N latitude and 143-162°E
longitude. The major fishing season was from September to December and there was an evident monthly variationin fishing gravity. Results indicated that higher CPUE had shorter distance to SST fronts, there exists a negative
linear relationship (R2=0.14) between the CPUEs and SST fronts. In addition, the satellite-derived sea surface
height anomaly (SSHA) and its derivative geostrophic current were used to identify the cold-core eddies (i.e.
enclosed areas with SSHA less than -25 cm) and warm-core eddies (enclosed areas with SSHA greater than 15 cm).
Results showed that the Kuroshio warm-core eddies usually intruded into Oyashio current to affect the spatial andtemporal distributions of Pacific saury catches. Fewer warm-core eddies were found during June to August when
CPUEs were low (9.7 metric tons/day/boat), while increasing twice the warm-core eddies increased the CPUEs up
to 19.5 metric tons/day/boat during September to December. A negative linear relationship (R2=0.35) was foundbetween the CPUE of Pacific saury and its distances to those warm eddies.

126

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesA2-6350

Ocean temperature, cod stock distribution and cod fisheries in the Barents Sea the last
decades
Cecilie Kvamme, Geir Odd Johansen, Jan Erik Stiansen, Trond Westgard, Bjørn Adlandsvik and Sigrid Lind
JohansenInstitute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes, Bergen, N-5817, Norway. E-mail: cecilie.kvamme@imr.no

Climate changes, through increased ocean temperature, are known to influence geographical distributions of fishstocks in several marine ecosystems. This may further inflict changes in the distribution of fisheries in time andspace. The northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) stock in the Barents Sea is currently the largest cod stock in
the world. In the present study we analyse the historical relationships between ocean temperature in a specified
layer above the sea floor, the geographical distribution of the cod stock based on bottom trawl indices fromresearch vessel surveys, and cod catches from fishing logbooks in the period 1980-2008. The data are taken froma database for the Barents Sea and adjacent areas that joins hydrographic (temperature and salinity), scientificsurvey, and fisheries data in a common spatial and temporal grid. Different spatial distribution parameters areused to describe the spatial dynamics in distribution of fish and catches. This is related to year-to-year variationand time trends in ocean temperature, distribution of prey species, and cod abundance.

A2-6377

Patterns in a changing climate: Fine-scale analysis of arrowtooth flounder catch rates inthe eastern Bering Sea reveals spatial trends in abundance and diet
Stephani Zador and Kerim Aydin
NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA. E-mail: stephani.zador@noaa.gov

127

A2

Multiple lines of evidence suggest that changes in the marine climate in the Bering Sea are leading to numericaland distributional shifts in fish populations. Arrowtooth flounder (Atherestheses stomias) have quadrupledsince the early 1980s in the eastern Bering Sea. Recently, recommended catches for walleye pollock (Therega
chalcogramma) have been reduced, in part due to concerns about the growing threat of arrowtooth flounder
predation of juvenile pollock. Thus, the goal of our study was to improve our understanding of the impact ofarrowtooth flounder to commercial fisheries in the changing climate of the Bering Sea. We found that small-scaleregions within the eastern Bering Sea shelf have contributed unequally to the overall rapid increase in abundanceof arrowtooth flounder. Hierarchical k-medoids clustering of arrowtooth catch-per-unit-effort revealed four
distinct spatial groups showing stable, increasing, and variable trends. Catch rates in high-density areas near the
shelf break have remained stable since the early 1990s while catch rates have increased to the northwest and east.
Annual changes in range expansion and contraction are negatively correlated with the extent of the cold waterpool on the shelf. Age-1 and -2 pollock comprise the majority of arrowtooth diets in all areas, but higher rates ofnon-empty stomachs in the northwest region indicate that predatory impacts on pollock may be higher there. This
analysis will provide information about the potential for arrowtooth flounder to further increase their distribution
and abundance in the Bering Sea and help to predict future responses to climate and fisheries management actions.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B1 Oral Presentations
27 April, 9:05 (B1-6053), Invited

Possible trends in North Pacific ecosystems over the 21st century based on output from acoupled climate, biogeochemical, and phytoplankton model
Jeffrey J. Polovina1, John P. Dunne2, Phoebe Woodworth3 and Evan A. Howell1
1
2
3

NOAA Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, HI, USA. E-mail: Jeffrey.Polovina@noaa.gov
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Joint Institute of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, USA

Output from the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s Earth System Model (ESM2.1) that includes abiogeochemical and ocean phytoplankton model run under the A2 greenhouse gases forcing scenario was used to
explore possible North Pacific ecosystem changes. The model output included a suite of physical, chemical, andphytoplankton variables aggregated monthly from 1998-2100 with a spatial resolution ranging from 1 degree athigh latitudes to 1/3 degree at the equator. Model phytoplankton density was used to define subarctic, subtropical,
and eastern tropical Pacific biomes and to examine how the area, phytoplankton density, phytoplankton species
composition, and primary production of these biomes changed over time. A key model result was that by the endof the 21st century, the area of subtropical biome is 24% larger while the subarctic and eastern tropical Pacificbiomes are both 27% smaller. Further, with warming occurring within each biome, cooler thermal habitats shrink
or vanish while warmer ones expand or are created. For example, the area of sea surface temperature SST 30 °C
and warmer is forecasted to expand 19-fold by the end of the century to cover more than 25 million km2. While
North Pacific primary production is projected to be only 6% lower at the end of the century, the model projects a
24% decline in the proportion of large phytoplankton biomass, implying reduced energy flow to top trophic levels.

27 April, 9:30 (B1-6167)

Effects of climate forcing on the North Pacific Ocean ecosystem simulated using an eddypermitting marine ecosystem model
Hiroshi Sumata1, Taketo Hashioka2, Takeshi Okunishi3, Masahito Shigemitsu1, Maki N. Aita2, Naoki Yoshie4,
Naosuke Okada1, Takashi T. Sakamoto2, Tatsuo Suzuki2 and Yasuhiro Yamanaka1,2
1

2
3

4

Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5 Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0810, Japan
E-mail: su@ees.hokudai.ac.jp
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 2368648, Japan
Center for Marine Environmental Studies, Ehime University, 2-5 Bunkyo-cho, Matsuyama, Ehime, 790-8577, Japan

129

B1

We developed a marine ecosystem model in the global domain and performed a 46 year hindcast experiment toexamine the effects of climate forcing on the spatiotemporal variation of basin-scale biogeochemical cycles andbiological production. A marine ecosystem model, NEMURO (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding
Regional Oceanography), was extended to represent biogeochemical cycles in the global domain: applicationof optimal uptake kinetics of nutrients by phytoplankton, explicit representation of iron cycles in the watercolumn and its limitation on the growth rate of phytoplankton, representation of two size classes of sinking
particles, optimal parameter estimation by gene algorithm, etc. The ecosystem model was coupled with an Ocean
General Circulation Model, COCO (CCSR Ocean Component Model) Ver. 4.3, by an offline method. The model
has horizontal resolution of 0.25125 degree in longitude and 0.1875 degree in latitude with 51 vertical levels,
covering the entire domain of the global ocean. The physical part of the model was driven by interannual climate
forcing from 1959 to 2004, and reasonably simulated interannual to decadal variabilities of ocean conditions
related to biogeochemical cycles. Nutrient supply from river runoff and iron supply from dust deposition andsediment sources is also considered for realistic representation of ecosystem response. The model demonstrated
the importance of variations of climate forcing with various spatiotemporal scales on basin-scale biologicalproduction. In our presentation, we will focus our attention on the ecosystem behavior in response to interannual
to decadal variations of climate forcing in the North Pacific Ocean.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 9:45 (B1-6049)

The response of eastern Bering Sea zooplankton communities to climate fluctuations:
Community structure, biodiversity, and energy flow to higher trophic levels
Jeffrey M. Napp1, George L. Hunt, Jr.2, Lisa B. Eisner3, Edward W. Farley3, Phyllis J. Stabeno4, Alex Andrews3
and Atsushi Yamaguchi5
1

2
3
4
5

NOAA/NMFS, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115-6349, USA
E-mail: jeff.napp@NOAA.gov
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, P.P. Box 355020, Seattle, WA, 98195-5020, USA
NOAA/NMFS, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 17109 Pt. Lena Loop Rd., Juneau, AK, 99801-8344, USA
NOAA/OAR, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115-6349, USA
Graduate School of Fisheries, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato-cho, Hakodate, 041-8611, Japan

Eastern Bering Sea shelf fisheries are among the world’s most productive, and the ecosystem that supports
these fisheries has shown rapid and demonstrable changes to climate as predicted for high latitude systems.
Zooplankton production is an important variable contributing to production at higher trophic levels. In recent
years we have seen large changes in zooplankton community composition and biomass which have had strong,
direct affects on planktivorous taxa as diverse as walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), seabirds (Aethia
pusilla and A. cristatella), and baleen whales (Eubalaena japonica), demonstrating that these changes affectthe energy flow and carrying capacity of the region. The biomass time series (T/S Oshoro-Maru), as well as
community composition data from two of NOAA’s ecosystem observation programs (EcoFOCI and BASIS),
show increases in the biomass and abundances of key species with the return to cold conditions (e.g. Calanus,
Neocalanus, Thysanoessa raschii). These large mesozooplankton species are important prey for planktivores.
It is uncertain whether decreases in zooplankton biomass during the warm period were also accompanied byincreases in biodiversity, as seen in some ecosystems. We report on recent changes in community composition
by comparing summer and spring zooplankton community composition data from three years, 2005 (warm), 2006
(cool) and 2007 (cold). In addition, we examine whether our conclusions about climate-mediated changes to thesummer zooplankton community and the carrying capacity are robust to the time of sampling (biomass, change in
species composition, and the location of the front between the northern and southern regions).

27 April, 10:00 (B1-6168)

Larval fish assemblages in the waters around Taiwan, western North Pacific: A comparison
between, during and after the northeasterly monsoon
Hung-Yen Hsieh1, Wen-Tseng Lo2, Long-Jing Wu1, Huang-Pin Chien3, Deng-Cheng Liu3 and Wei-Cheng Su3
1

2
3

Coastal and Offshore Resources Research Center, Fisheries Research Institute of the Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan,
Kaohsiung, Taiwan, 80672, ROC. E-mail: hyhsieh@mail.tfrin.gov.tw
Department of Marine Biotechnology and Resources, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan, 80424, ROC
Fisheries Research Institute of the Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, Keelung, Taiwan, 20246, ROC

The objective of this study was to investigate the spatio-temporal difference of larval fish assemblages related
to the local hydrographic features that occur during (winter) and after (spring) the northeasterly monsoon in thewaters around Taiwan. A total of 426 taxa of larval fish belonging to 213 genera and 109 families were recognized
during our study period. Larval fish abundances in the two seasons were similar, but the species compositions
showed significant difference and the species number of larval fish was more diverse in spring than in winter.
MDS analysis revealed two seasonal station groups. Higher abundance and lower species diversity generally
were found in the waters west of Taiwan where the China Coastal Current (CCC) prevails, and an opposite trend
was observed in the waters east of Taiwan where the Kuroshio Current (KC) dominates. The distribution patternsin abundance and species assemblages were closely linked with the hydrographic conditions, and well-matchedwith abundance of phyto- and zooplankton. Food availability may be another important factor affecting the
distribution of larval fish assemblage in the waters around Taiwan. In addition, the intrusion of the Kuroshio
Branch Current (KBC) may bring larvae of some fish species into the Taiwan Strait in spring. The succession ofwater masses induced by monsoon apparently also affects distribution patterns of larval fish assemblages in thewaters around Taiwan.

130

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 10:15 (B1-6235)

Changes of bottom ichthyocenosis structure on the shelf of west Kamchatka underchanging environments in the last two decades
Nadezhda L. Aseeva and Alexander L. Figurkin
Far-Eastern Seas Fisheries Resources, Pacific Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (TINRO-Center), 4 Shevchenko Alley,
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray, 690950, Russia. E-mail: aseeva_n@hotmail.com

Tendencies in quantitative structure of the bottom fish community on the shelf of west Kamchatka are considered
for the last two decades. The leading groups of this community are flounders (Pleuronectidae), cod and pollock(Gadidae), and sculpins (Cottidae), the combined biomass of which exceeds 90% of the whole community biomass.
A long period of warming in the Okhotsk Sea in 1983-1997 with lowered ice cover, relatively small production ofdense bottom water, and lowered content of dissolved oxygen in the subsurface layer caused a significant change
in the structure of bottom community. Flounders became absolutely dominant: the share of their total biomassin the community increased from about 50% in the 1980s to 64-75% in 1996-1997, and their absolute biomass
also increased. In contrast, the shares of gadids and sculpins decreased during 1990s to the minimum in 2001.
Resumption of severe winters in 1998-2002 did not lead to restoration of the bottom ichthyocenosis structure: inthe early 2000s the share of flounders decreased slightly and the share of sculpins increased, but the abundanceof cods and pollock remained low. At the same time, the flounders had a prominent redistribution: their biomass
declined in the southern part of the shelf, but increased in its northern part. Recent warming after 2003 caused
further declines of the Gadidae, new declines of sculpins, and renewed increases of flounder populations, thebiomass of which reached 61% of the bottom community in 2009. Minor populations, such as sea poachers,
increased concurrently. Although shifts of environmental factors back to previous conditions led to some recovery
in the bottom fish community, there was a certain lag, including a delay in pelagic community recovery. Possible
reasons of this delay are discussed.

27 April, 10:30 (B1-6216)

Climate change leads to earlier seasonal occurrence of larval fishes in the southern
California Current
Rebecca G. Asch and David M. Checkley, Jr.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr., La Jolla, CA, 92093-0208, USA
E-mail: rgasch@ucsd.edu

131

B1

Global warming has prompted an earlier arrival of spring in numerous ecosystems. It is uncertain whether such achange is occurring in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), because this region is subject to decadal climate
oscillations and regional climate models predict seasonal delays in upwelling. We investigated changes in larval
phenology of 12 fish species sampled by California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations between 19512008. Trends in monthly larval abundance were analyzed by decadally averaging data from quarterly surveys
conducted in different months. Phenological shifts were quantified by anomalies in the central tendency (CT) oflarval abundance. The CT of the ichthyoplankton assemblage advanced by 19.5 days since the 1950s (3.9 days
per decade). Species showing phenological advances include Trachurus symmetricus, Merluccius productus,
Scomber japonicus, Diogenichthys atlanticus, Symbolophorus californiensis, and Triphoturus mexicanus. Springspawning fishes exhibited the fastest rates of phenological change (7.4-9.8 days earlier per decade). In contrast, a
few species displayed a delay in CT or an oscillating pattern where an initial advance in phenology was followed
by a delay. El Niño did not have a significant effect on the assemblage’s CT. While the CT of coastal upwellingand zooplankton volume did not show signs of phenological advance, an inverse relationship between year and
SST CT indicated earlier warming of surface waters. A tight correlation was observed between SST CT and theichthyoplankton assemblage’s CT (r=0.99, p<0.001). The rate of phenological advancement displayed by fishes
in the southern CCE is comparable to other regions, such as the North Sea.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 11:05 (B1-6220)

Ocean climate change and phenology: Effects on trophic synchrony and consequences tofish and seabirds in the northern-central California Current
William J. Sydeman1, Bryan A. Black2, Steven J. Bograd3, Jeff Dorman4, John C. Field5, Kyra L. Mills1, Stephen
Ralston5, T. Zack Powell4, Jarrod A. Santora1, Isaac D. Schroeder1, Sarah Ann Thompson1 and Franklin B. Schwing3
1
2
3
4
5

Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, P.O. Box 750756, Petaluma, CA, 94975, USA. E-mail: wsydeman@comcast.net
Oregon State University, Hatfield Marine Science Center, 2030 SE Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR, 97365, USA
Pacific Fisheries Environmental Laboratory, 1352 Lighthouse Ave., Pacific Grove, CA, 93950-2097, USA
Integrative Biology, UC Berkeley, 3060 Valley Life Sciences Bldg. #3140, Berkeley, CA, 94720-3140, USA
NOAA Fisheries, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, 110 Shaffer Rd., Santa Cruz, CA, 95060, USA

The marine climate of the California Current has changed in many ways (e.g., warming, increased stratification),
consistent with expectations under global warming. One of the consequences of these physical changes appears
to be increasing trophic asynchrony which has, in some years, destabilized predator-prey interactions. It ishypothesized that increased climate variability, as a consequence of climate change, will cause changes in thetiming of key seasonal events, such as the spring phytoplankton bloom, dates of diapause for zooplankton, or
nesting dates in seabirds. However, it is not well known how these changes will impact predator-prey relationships
at higher trophic levels. Several mechanistic hypotheses have been put forth to explain changes in fish production
in relation to phenological variability of prey, including Cushing’s (1990; Adv. Mar. Biol. 26:249–293) ‘matchmismatch’ hypothesis, yet there have been few tests of these ideas relative to ongoing ocean climate change.
We have conducted comprehensive retrospective analyses of the nexus between marine climate, phenology, andtrophic synchrony in the northern-central California Current, focusing on krill and juvenile rockfish as ‘prey’, andseabirds, salmon, and adult rockfish as ‘predators’ over a recent period of unprecedented climate variability. We
found key climatic determinants of predator timing of breeding and reproductive success (seabirds), and growth(rockfish) which were related primarily to winter atmospheric-oceanographic coupling. We also found spatial,
and to a lesser extent temporal, ‘mismatches’ in krill-krill predator interactions, which is apparently related tochanges in surface winds, ocean circulation, and plankton transport.

27 April, 11:20 (B1-6042)

Global distribution of phytoplankton functional types estimated from satellite ocean
colourTakafumi Hirata1, Robert Brewin2 and Nick Hardman-Mountford3
1
2
3

Hokkaido University, School of Environmental Earth Science, N10W5 Kita-Ku, Sapporo, Japan. E-mail: takafumih@niklis.com
University of Plymouth, School of Marine Science and Engineering, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK
Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth, PL1 3BY, UK

An ocean colour algorithm to estimate several phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) is developed to enable
quantitative analysis of global spatial and temporal variability. Each PFT was represented in terms of percentage
of total chlorophyll a (%TChla). Mean uncertainty of the global pigment relationships is estimated to be 2-9%,
depending on PFTs under consideration. Spatially, large populations of microplankton such as diatoms are foundin mid-high latitudes. Areas dominated by diatoms (%TChla > 50%) are rather patchy in the global oceans,
and found to vary seasonally. Nanoplankton are widely spread and make up a large proportion of the total
phytoplankton community (30-50% on average, depending on ocean basins), though their population is relatively
small in the subtropical gyres. Large proportions (%TChla > 50%) of pico-plankton such as Prochlorococcus sp.
are found in the subtropical gyres, and pico-eukaryote species are relatively abundant in the South Pacific. Long
term trends over 1998-2007 for each PFT were also determined. Statistically significant trends were found in
most ocean basins. Statistically significant increasing trends were found for picoplankton (prokaryotes and picoeukaryotes), while statistically significant decreasing trends were found for diatoms and nanoplankton.

132

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 11:35 (B1-6363) (Moved to 16:45)

Comparison of the ecosystem response to climate change in the mid-latitude North Pacificand California Current ecosystems
Ryan R. Rykaczewski1 and John P. Dunne2
12

University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ,
08540-6649, USA. E-mail: ryan.rykaczewski@noaa.gov
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ, 08540-6649, USA

Historical observations of mid-latitude ocean ecosystems display strong, negative correlations between
temperature and nutrient concentration (and productivity) in the mixed layer over interannual to decadal timescales. We examine changes in the relationship between temperature and nutrients in the California Current andthe oligotrophic North Pacific ecosystems under a scenario of increased greenhouse-gas concentrations using an
atmosphere-ocean general circulation model coupled to an ocean biogeochemical model (GFDL’s ESM 2.1). We
find that nitrate concentration and productivity decrease in the euphotic zone of the oligotrophic North Pacificwith increases in temperature and stratification, consistent with the relationships observed over shorter time scales.
However, the response in the California Current is opposite: nitrate concentration and productivity increase withincreases in temperature and stratification over the centennial time scale. This result is contrary to the relationshipobserved over shorter time scales in mid-latitude ocean ecosystems but is consistent with observations of nutrient
concentration and temperature over multidecadal scales in the California Current. Although we find that the total
equatorward transport in the surface layers of the California Current increases, the increase in nitrate concentrationin the euphotic zone is due primarily to increased flux from the poleward undercurrent rather than flux from thenorth or west. This work emphasizes the need for a greater understanding of nutrient dynamics in the regionand suggests that empirical relationships among temperature, nutrient supply, and biological production basedon historical observations at interannual to decadal time scales may be inappropriate for predicting ecosystem
responses under climate-change scenarios.

27 April, 11:50 (B1-6279)

A preliminary study of the effects of a wave exposure gradient on the species richness ofmarine macrophytes along the eastern rim of the East China Sea
Gregory N. Nishihara1 and Ryuta Terada2
1

2

Institute for East China Sea Research, Nagasaki University, 1551-7 Taira-machi, Nagasaki City, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan
E-mail: greg@nagasaki-u.ac.jp
Division of Fisheries Biology and Oceanography, Kagoshima University, 4-50-20 Shimoarata, Kagoshima City, Kagoshima,890-0056, Japan

133

B1

Changes in the global climate are expected not only to increase water temperature and decrease pH, but also toaffect tidal range and wave heights. Whether or not there will be increases or decreases in sea surface winds andhence wave heights is the subject of ongoing research. However, there is no doubt that these changes will affectcoastal ecosystems throughout the world. Macrophytes, which provide habitat for a variety of benthic and pelagicorganisms, are expected to be greatly influenced by changes in coastal wave climate, since they occupy coastal
areas that are under the heavy influence of waves. Given that waves are one of the primary factors influencing
physical and biological processes in these environments, we believe that understanding the relationships between
macrophytes and waves will help prepare us for the changes in climate that are predicted to occur. We will address
the effects of a wave exposure gradient on species richness over a 600 km north-south gradient along the eastern
rim of the East China Sea. Over 400 species of macrophytes across more than 200 survey sites were sorted basedon morphological characteristics (i.e., functional form) to elucidate how waves may affect different groups ofspecies. We provide a testable hypothesis and propose that macrophyte richness decreases with increasing wave
exposure throughout the domain and is strongly influenced by functional form.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 12:05 (B1-6253)

Climate-driven shifts in marine fish communities indicated by commercial catch statistics
from Korean coastal waters
Sukgeun Jung, Young Shil Kang, Young-Sang Suh, Sukyung Kang and Yeong Gong
National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, 408-1 Sirang-ri, Gijang-eup, Gijang-gun, Busan, 619-902, R Korea
E-mail: Sukgeun.jung@gmail.com

To evaluate and project effects of climate-driven oceanographic changes on Korean fisheries, we summarizedchanges in oceanographic conditions (1968-2007), volume transports of the Tsushima warm current (TWC)and cold waters, taxonomic changes in fishery catches (1968-2008), and zooplankton biomass and taxonomic
compositions in Korean coastal waters (1978-2006). Water temperatures and zooplankton biomass density,
averaged for the entire Korean sea waters, have increased significantly. Although the combined annual fisherycatch has been relatively stable since 1980’s, annual catch of individual fish species has fluctuated more greatly.
Catch from shallow, inshore areas has decreased, but catch from deep, offshore areas has increased. We could
define four regimes based on characteristic fish species identified by correspondence analysis: 1) saury (19681976), 2) pollock (1977-1982), 3) sardine (1983-1990) and common squid (1991-2008). Because these four
species have been major fisheries species in the Korea Strait and Japan/East Sea, which are under the influenceof the TWC, we are currently analyzing seasonal and annual variations in volume transports of the TWC andbottom cold waters through the Korea Strait. An additional shift in species compositions of both fisheries catchand zooplankton in Korean waters was evident for 1982-1983, which was probably related with the El Niño event.
The comparison between the reported periods of basin-wide climatic and ecosystem changes and our proposed
shifts in Korean marine capture fishery suggests that climate-driven oceanic changes has been a major cause ofchanges in fish communities in Korean sea waters.

27 April, 12:20 (B1-6329)

Interdisciplinary monitoring for the Kuroshio warm current ecosystem in relation toclimate change
Hiroya Sugisaki1, Kiyotaka Hidaka1, Tadafumi Ichikawa1, Yutaka Hiroe1, Yuichi Hirota2, Kenji Morinaga1,
Manabu Shimizu1, Takahisa Tokunaga1, Mikiko Kuriyama1, Tomowo Watanabe1 and Kaoru Nakata1
12

National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa,236-8648, Japan. E-mail: sugisaki@affrc.go.jp
Kochi Station of National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 6-1-21 Sanbashi-dori, Kochi,
780-8010, JapanThe Kuroshio is the western boundary warm current in the North Pacific and it is known as a main spawning fieldof various commercially-important pelagic fishes (e.g. Japanese sardine, Pacific saury, chub mackerel), althoughnutrient concentration and biological production has been low compared to Oyashio cold current area. Largescale and long-term variations of stock size of these pelagic fish species related to climate change have been
observed. We have been conducting interdisciplinary, physical-chemical-biological monitoring research in the
Kuroshio ecosystem since the 1980s because the survival rate and success of recruitment of early life stages ofcommercially important pelagic fish species are determined by a combination of multiple factors. These include
variations in transportation route, speed of the Kuroshio Current, and food condition.
The scale and timing of the spring bloom in the Kuroshio has varied interannually, based on chlorophyll aconcentration. The interannual variation of primary production seems to be related to the variation of watertemperature and meander pattern of the Kuroshio Current. The interannual variations of the scale and timing of
low trohic level production seem to affect the fluctuation of nutritional condition for survival of larval pelagic
fishes. This retrospective Kuroshio ecosystem monitoring study has provided key insights into the mechanisms
driving the observed large scale variations of stock sizes of commercially-important pelagic fish in relation toclimate change and physical characteristics of the Kuroshio Current (e.g. meander pattern).

134

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 12:35 (B1-6101)

Understanding and forecasting of fish species alternation in the Kuroshio-Oyashio
ecosystem: The SUPRFISH programme
Hiroaki Saito1, Shin-ichi Ito1, Atsushi Kawabata2, Mitsutaku Makino2, Masami Nonaka3, Takeshi Okunishi2,
Kazutaka Takahashi1 and Ichiro Yasuda4
1

2
3
4

Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan
E-mail: hsaito@affrc.go.jp
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, FRA, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-8648, Japan
JAMSTEC, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan

Fish species alternation between sardine and anchovy (FSA-SA) is the most drastic phenomenon of ecosystem
regime shift responding to climate change. Most FSA-SA are observed in upwelling zones in the eastern part ofoceans. The exception is the Kuroshio-Oyashio ecosystem off Japan in the western boundary current system of
the North Pacific. In spite of the different physical oceanographic characteristics, the FSA-SA in the KuroshioOyashio often synchronizes with other FSA-SA regions in upwelling zones. The mechanism inducing the FSASA in upwelling zones and the western boundary current system has been a premier scientific issue of ocean
sciences. In order to understand the mechanism of FSA-SA and to forecast the future FSA-SA in the KuroshioOyashio ecosystem, we started the SUPRFISH (Studies on Prediction and Application of Fish Species Alternation)
programme. The SUPRFISH has 5 research themes: 1. Physical oceanographic variations inducing marine
ecosystem regime shifts; 2. Mechanisms and processes of change in lower food-web structure; 3. Physiologicaland ecological factors of pelagic fishes related to the FSA; 4. Development of a mathematical model representing
FSA; and 5. Application of FSA results and theory in fisheries management. In the presentation, we will show thescience plan of SUPRFISH, results obtained thus far, and the strategy to develop the FSA forecasting technique.

27 April, 14:30 (B1-6044), Invited

Interesting times
Elizabeth A. Fulton
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia. E-mail: beth.fulton@csiro.au

Feedback and change are fundamental features of ecosystems, something global change has highlighted. Changes
in the physical environment, will see shifts in species ranges, community compositions and ultimately the form
and function of ecosystem and the human societies that exploit them. What these shifts will be depends on whichof the competing (and potentially counteracting) mechanisms dominates through space and time. This meansthat changes are unlikely to be simple or linear, there will be winners, losers and surprises. It also means thatmanagement will be complex and non-stationary, presenting management, scientific and statistical challenges.

27 April, 14:55 (B1-6164)

Decline in mackerel fishery along west coast of India and its relation to the diminishingdensity of an abundant upwelling copepod: A multi-decadal study
Rosamma Stephen
Ajantha, Elamkulam Rd., Kochi-682017, Kerala, India. E-mail: rosamma.stephen@gmail.com
Scientist (Retired), National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Kochi-682018, Kerala, India

135

B1

The alarming decrease in the mackerel fishery along the west coast of India in recent years is attributed byfishery scientists to various factors, but primarily SST increases and shifting of the population to deeper waters.
So far, no attempt has been made to analyze the relationship between copepods and mackerels. In this paper,
copepod data collected from India’s EEZ during the past four decades are compiled, and Temora turbinata is used
as a key indicator species relating to upwelling and mackerel fisherydata published by India’s Central Marine
Fishery Research Institution. A synthesis of T. turbinata data collected during the last four decades indicateda sweeping decline in the population of this species during the summer monsoon. The herbivorous species T.
turbinata occur in swarms over the entire shelf following pulses of diatom blooms in upwelling areas. Data

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
utilized for this study spanned the period from the International Indian Ocean Expedition (IIOE, 1960-65) until the
Marine Research on Living Resources project (MRLR, 1998-2005). The density of T. turbinata individuals in themixed layer decreased from 5000-30000/100m3 during 1980’s to 200-1600/100m3 during 1998-2005. Swarms ofT. turbinata during the summer monsoon of 1970-75 were associated with low temperature between 19.9 and
23.8°C in the mixed layer. Diapause, which allows Calanoides carinatus to cope with environmental fluctuations,is not reported for T. turbinata. Several lines of evidence suggest that the mackerel fishery is directly related to theabundance and species composition of copepods.

27 April, 15:10 (B1-6336)

Effect of climate change on fish and fisheries of Marathwada region of Maharashtra state(India)Sunil D. Ahirrao
Fresh Water Aquaculture Division, Department of Fisheries, Shri Shivaji College, Parbhani, (M.S.), India
E-mail: Ahirrao.sunil@gmail.com

India is an under-developed country and its national economy is based on agriculture. Among of that agriculture
fish and fisheries are the important component of Indian economy and health of common peoples. The stateof Maharashtra serves a prominent role in the Indian economy, and much of the foreign exchange flowing into
Maharashtra results from exports of fish and fish products. Marathwada region consists of 8 districts: Aurangabad,
Jalna, Parbhani, Nanded, Hingoli, Latur Osmanabad and Beed. These make up the study area in which sampling
was conducted and observations made.
The present findings are compared with my earlier findings from the year 2000. The study deals with the varies
parameters to compare with earlier findings such as water level, water temp, atmospheric temp, precipitation,
humidity, fish biodiversity, species distribution, fish production in kg/ha/year, district-wise species distributions,accounting of rare and threatened and migratory species, etc. Overall, the combined effects of decreasing fishbiodiversity, changes in water level, and decreasing precipitation have led to degraded fisheries ecosystems. Thismay be due to increased temperatures, pollution load, and shifting seasonal cycles, and all of this may be attributed
to climate change.

27 April, 15:25 (B1-6056)

Long-term climate-driven changes in UK marine fish communities
Stephen D. Simpson1, Mark P. Johnson2, David W. Sims3, Pieter-Jan Schön4, Julia L. Blanchard5, Simon Jennings5
and Martin J. Genner1
1
2
3
4
5

School of Biological Sciences, University of Bristol, Woodland Rd., Bristol, BS8 1UG, UK. E-mail: Stephen.Simpson@bristol.ac.uk
The Martin Ryan Marine Science Institute, National University of Ireland Galway, University Rd., Galway, Ireland
Marine Biological Association of the UK, the Laboratory, Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK
Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute, Newforge Lane, Belfast, Northern Ireland, BT9 5PX, UK
Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Cefas Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Rd., Lowestoft, Suffolk,
NR33 0HT, UK

Evidence is mounting for long-term effects of climate change on marine fish assemblages. Until now, much of thiswork has been conducted over short or intermittent time periods, or small geographical areas. Here we present
the findings of a macrospatial study of the entire UK marine fish assemblage measured annually for a 30-year
period by commercially-independent trawls. We find clear support for the previously reported North Sea shift incommunity assemblage in the late-80s to early-90s, but also evidence of community change in NW Scotland, theChannel, and the Celtic and Irish Seas. Using newly developed analytical approaches we have explored thesepatterns at a fine spatio-temporal resolution, and for the first time present the relationships between measured
community change and key environmental drivers. Through a series of hypothesis-driven investigations of thesepatterns, we have explored the species-level responses with respect to temperature and depth preferences, and lifehistory characteristics and phylogeographic history. We use these findings to draw out fundamental properties of
ecosystem function, community response, and life-history vulnerability. Finally, by extrapolating current trends
we present our ‘best guess’ predictions for the future of marine fish assemblages and fisheries.

136

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 15:40 (B1-6078)

Global warming changes the species richness of marine fish in the eastern North Atlantic
Ocean
Remment ter Hofstede, Jan Geert Hiddink and Adriaan D. Rijnsdorp
IMARES (Institute for Marine Resources and Ecosystem Studies) P.O. Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden, The Netherlands
E-mail: remment.terhofstede@wur.nl

Global warming causes changes in local communities due to species extinctions and latitudinal ranges shifts. We
show that the species richness of fish in three regional seas in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean changes over time(1997-2008) and we relate this to higher water temperatures and the biogeographic affinity of the species. In twoof the areas, the species richness increased due to increases in the number of warm-loving Lusitanian species. In
the third area, species richness decreased since the number of cold-favouring Boreal species decreased. Analysesof trends in fishing effort indicate that the observed changes in species richness are not fisheries-induced, thereby
making global warming the most plausible factor to have caused the changes in species richness of marine fish.

27 April, 15:55 (B1-6305)

Changes in the environmental factors controlling the global biogeography of tuna andbillfish communities
Gabriel Reygondeau, Olivier Maury, Hervé Demarcq and Philippe Cury
IRD (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement), UMR EME 212, CRH (Centre de Recherches Halieutiques Méditerranéennes etTropicales), Av. Jean Monnet, B.P. 171, 34203 Sète cedex, France. E-mail: gabriel.reygondeau@ird.fr

Biogeography attempts to investigate the link between the spatial distribution of species and the environment.
In this perspective, the global marine biogeography proposed by Longhurst based on physical, chemical andbiogeochemical (chlorophyll concentrations derived from satellite images) variables constitutes the most widely
accepted reference. However, few attempts have tried to assess its validity for upper trophic levels (zooplankton
or fish). In the present study, we investigate the biogeography of tunas and billfishes. First, we implement a newnumerical procedure based on hierarchical clustering and a non-parametric probabilistic model to identify regions
where top predator communities are homogeneous. This procedure is applied to a database gathering fifty years ofspatialized commercial long line catches of fifteen different species of tuna and billfish at the global scale. Second,
for every identified region, the species composition and the associated environment (using twelve environmental
factors) is characterized. The obtained top predator biogeography is compared to Longhurst partitions. Third,
the trends of every environmental factor structuring the tuna and billfish communities are analysed during thelast decade using a wavelet analysis. Our results suggest that the different tuna and billfish species occupy
different niches at the global scale and form specific and well-defined communities. We show that our top
predator biogeography matches well with Longhurst biomes and provinces. This has important implications forunderstanding the spatial distribution of biodiversity and regional ecosystem structure. Furthermore, significant
changes in the environmental structure of some specific regions are detected and could be amplified by climatechange, with potentially important consequences on the spatial distribution and species composition of theidentified top predator communities.

B1

137

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 16:30 (B1-6366)

Modeling global patterns in the transfer of energy between primary producers andmesozooplankton in a global circulation modelCharles A. Stock and John P. Dunne
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University Forrestal Campus, 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ, 08540-6649,
USA. E-mail: charles.stock@noaa.gov

Climate model simulations in the CMIP3 multi-model database were generally focused on the physical climate
system (sea ice, atmosphere, ocean and land surface). Where marine ecosystem models were included, theyemphasized global scale cycling of carbon and nutrients and representations of the food web were highly
simplified. As a result, predictions of the response of living marine resources (LMRs) to climate change haverelied heavily upon empirical relationships with projected physical variables or primary production. To address
this, the food web dynamics within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s Earth System Model have been
augmented to include multiple zooplankton groups with basic bioenergetics. First, a simplified marine ecosystemmodel and a synthesis of in-situ, laboratory, and satellite data were used to reveal and explain global-scalepatterns in energy transfer from primary producers to mesozooplankton. It was found that, on average, only 1-4%of primary production is translated to mesozooplankton production in relatively low productivity ecosystems(e.g., subtropical gyres) compared with 10-20% in highly productive areas (e.g., coastal upwelling systems).
An important implication of this result is that climate-driven fractional changes in primary production may bemagnified into larger fractional changes in mesozooplankton production and production of higher trophic levels.
The food web dynamics from this idealized model were then integrated with GFDL’s existing biogeochemical
model. Global simulations forced with historical atmospheric forcing from the past 60 years will be presented
with analysis of both the mean state was well as interannual to decadal scale variability in trophic transfer.

27 April, 16:45 (B1-6108) (Changed to Poster)

Climate Forcing and Marine Ecosystems of the North Pacific
Jacquelynne R. King1, Vera N. Agostini2, Gordon McFarlane1, Christopher Harvey3, Michael Foreman4, James E.
Overland5 and Kerim Aydin6
1

2
3
4
5

6

Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd., Nanaimo, BC, V9T 6N7, Canada
E-mail: Jackie.King@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
The Nature Conservancy, Global Marine Initiative, 1917 First Ave., Seattle, WA, 98101, USA
Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 2725 Montlake Blvd. E., Seattle, WA, 98112, USA
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, BC, V8L 4B2, Canada
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 7600 Sand Point Way
NE, Seattle, WA, 98115-6349, USA
Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle , WA, 98115-6349, USA

The Climate Forcing and Marine Ecosystems (CFAME) Task Team of PICES was formed to address climate forcing
impacts on ecosystem structure and productivity of key species. The Task Team was comprised of climatologists,
physical and biological oceanographers and fisheries scientists thus drawing from a multi-disciplinary team forthe prediction of North Pacific marine ecosystems response to basin-wide climate forcing events. Three major
ecosystems of the North Pacific were selected for this approach: California Current System, the Sea of Okhotsk
and the East China/Yellow Sea. For each ecosystem the Task Team described the physical processes that define
each ecosystem, built an overview of species across trophic levels that represented all life history strategies anddescribed how the population dynamics of these species have changed overtime. In this talk we will focus on theconceptual model developed for the California Current System (CCS) describing the potential mechanisms linking
climate forcing, oceanography and species’ responses. Our resultant scenarios draw on ecosystem histories toprovide a synopsis of expected change given global climate change. The multi-disciplinary team faced challenges
and limitations in their attempt to draw connections between the outputs from GCMs, the physical processes
and the subsequent impacts on species via the identified mechanisms. To some degree there was a mismatch ofvariables that fisheries scientists identified as important in determining species’ response to climate and physicalforcing, and the variables that current GCMs and ROMs are currently able to resolve at the regional level. These
gaps will be important for researchers to consider as they begin to develop higher resolution climate and regional
oceanographic models for forecasting changes in species’ productivity.

138

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 17:00 (B1-6061)

Modeling the central North Pacific ecosystem response to predicted climate variations
and fishery management scenarios
Evan A. Howell1, John P. Dunne2 and Jeffrey J. Polovina1
1
2

NOAA Fisheries Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Honolulu, HI, 96822, USA. E-mail: Evan.Howell@noaa.gov
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, 08540, USA

To understand how climate and habitat variability may affect ecosystems such as the central North Pacific Ocean(CNP), it is important to be able to quantify trophic interactions and energy flows of the organisms within thesystem. In this study, the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) model framework was used to understand the dynamic
relationships between the species within this ecosystem under different projected scenarios. An existing EwEmodel of the CNP was adapted to represent the region used by the Hawaii-based pelagic longline fishery andexpanded in scope to include two phytoplankton and zooplankton groups as well mid-trophic level species ofgrowing recent importance to this fishery. Ecopath was used to balance the updated CNP model and Ecosim wasthen used to predict CNP ecosystem responses from possible changes in both the fishery and predicted climate
variability. Ecosim projections to the year 2100 were run using three scenarios. Scenario one was comprised of
top-down forcing represented by changes in fishing pressure on species of interest to fishers and management.
Scenario two was comprised of bottom-up forcing represented by changes in phytoplankton biomass takenfrom the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s Earth System Model (ESM2.1) that included abiogeochemical and ocean phytoplankton model run under the A2 greenhouse gases forcing scenario. Scenario
three was a combination of both. The results from these scenarios show dynamic changes in this ecosystem driven
by both predicted climate variability and possible fisheries management measures. An increased understanding of
the food web interactions and expected shifts due to different forcing mechanisms in this system will increase ourability to adapt fishery management policies to better maintain sustainable fisheries.

27 April, 17:15 (B1-6276)

Projecting future change in pelagic nekton communities along the west coast of North
America
William L. Cheung1, Thomas A. Okey2,3 and Richard D. Brodeur412
34School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK. E-mail: William.cheung@uea.ac.uk
West Coast Vancouver Island Aquatic Management Board, #3 4310 10th Ave., Port Alberni, BC, V9Y 4X4, Canada
University of Victoria School of Environmental Studies, Victoria, BC, V8P 5C2, Canada
Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Hatfield Marine Science Center, 2030 Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR,
97365, USA

139

B1

Marine ecosystems are being affected by changes in ocean conditions resulting from the effect of greenhouse gas
emissions on the global atmosphere. Shifting spatial distributions of species is a major observed and predicted
impact of these oceanographic changes, and such shifts may modify community structure considerably inparticular locations and regions. We used a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model to project shifting ranges ofpelagic marine fish and invertebrates along the west coast of North America, from the coast of California to
Alaska. We combined published data, expert knowledge, and survey data to predict current species ranges of 30
pelagic nekton species. Species include sub-tropical and temperate species with different life history patterns.
Using projected ocean condition changes from NOAA’s GFDL coupled model, we simulate changes in the spatial
distribution of each species. Our study shows that the west coast of North America may undergo considerable
changes in the structure of its pelagic marine communities by 2055 under a ‘business-as-usual’ (SRES A1B)
climate change scenario. Distributions of the studied species are projected to shift poleward at an average rate of
40 km decade-1, resulting in high rates of range expansion in the Gulf of Alaska and northern Bering Sea. Rate ofrange retraction is highest in southern Bering Sea, and some coastal areas of British Columbia and Oregon. Suchchanges in species assemblages may have large ecological and socio-economic implications through unexpected
trophic effects and shifts in fishing grounds. The results provide alternative hypotheses for future studies to test.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 17:30 (B1-6081)

Ecology of small neritic fishes in the western Gulf of Alaska: Top-down mechanisms canmoderate bottom-up forcing
Matthew T. Wilson1, Christina M. Jump1 and Andre Buchheister2
1

2

Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 7600 Sand
Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA. E-mail: matt.wilson@noaa.gov
Virginia Institute of Marine Science, P.O. Box 1346, Gloucester Point, VA, 23062-1346, USA

The Gulf of Alaska (GOA) coastal ocean is characterized by strong climate-forced circulation and high biologicalproductivity. Habitat heterogeneity is hypothesized to affect ecosystem productivity. Small neritic fishes (walleye
pollock, capelin, eulachon) are prominent trophic intermediaries in ecosystem productivity. Meso-scale geographic
associations among the physical environment, zooplankton and these fishes were examined during September
2000, 2001, and 2003 within 41,000 km2 of the continental shelf from near shore to the slope. The study area
was chosen due to its location within a major walleye pollock nursery and due to well-known circulation features.
The 48-site sampling grid was divided into 5 meso-scale areas based on water temperature, salinity, and modelbased net current velocity. Few fish were collected over the slope. Over the shelf, age-1+ walleye pollock andeulachon populations were densest in proximity to sea valleys where net current velocities were high, and where
krill, the major prey species, were most abundant. Inter-annually, per capita consumption of krill by fish was
highest in 2001 when net current velocities and krill abundance were high. The greatest proportion of the krill
standing stock was consumed in 2001. Thus, aggregation of fish and krill in the coastal GOA was associated withthe flow field; increased flow in 2001 enhanced krill abundance causing fish to consume a greater proportion of
the standing stock (i.e. compensatory response). These fishes are therefore expected to benefit from any climaterelated intensification of coastal flow due to increased abundance of krill, which are an energy-rich prey.

27 April, 17:45 (B1-6130)

Ocean acidification threatens the replenishment of reef fish populations
Philip L. Munday1, Danielle L. Dixson1, Mark I. McCormick1 and Mark Meekan2
1

2

ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, and School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville,
QLD, 4811 Australia. E-mail: Philip.Munday@jcu.edu.au
Australian Institute of Marine Science, Perth, WA, Australia

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations are increasing at an unprecedented rate and could exceed
1000ppm by 2100 unless measures are taken to curb greenhouse gas emissions. The corresponding increase indissolved CO2 at the sea surface is expected to have serious consequences for marine species, although the CO2
concentrations at which impacts will manifest and the capacity for species’ adaptation to ocean acidification
remain poorly understood. We used a series of laboratory and field experiments to test the effects of elevated CO2
on the sensory performance of larval reef fishes. Naïve settlement-stage larvae reared in control water exhibitedan innate avoidance of the odor from reef-based predators. Behavioral responses of fish larvae to the chemicalcues of predators was unaffected by 550ppm CO2. However, at 750ppm CO2 some larvae in each clutch exhibiteda dramatic switch from complete avoidance to strong attraction to the predator cue. Other larvae in each clutch
remained unaffected by 750ppm CO2. At 1030ppm CO2 all larvae were strongly attracted to the predator cue
and there was no variation in response among individuals. These results suggest that adaptation of behavioral
responses might be possible at 750ppm CO2 but atmospheric CO2 need to remain below this level to avoid serious
impacts on marine biodiversity.

140

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

27 April, 18:00 (B1-6095)

Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes in response to climate change and fisheries
exploitation
Nicholas Graham1, Pascale Chabanet2, Richard Evans3, Simon Jennings4,5, Yves Letourneur6, M. Aaron MacNeil7,
Tim McClanahan8, Marcus Öhman9, Nicholas Polunin10 and Charles Sheppard11
1

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia
E-mail: nick.graham@jcu.edu.au
Laboratoire d’Ecologie Marine (ECOMAR), Université de La Réunion, Saint-Denis, La Réunion, France
Department of Fisheries, 39 Northside Dr. Hillarys, North Beach 6920, Western Australia
Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Lowestoft Laboratory, Lowestoft, UK
School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, BPA5 Nouméa, New Caledonia
Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Australia
Wildlife Conservation Society, Marine Programs, Bronx, New York, USA
Department of Zoology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
School of Marine Science and Technology, Newcastle University, Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK
University of Warwick, Department of Biological Sciences, Coventry, UK

With the advent of the world’s sixth mass extinction episode, predictive assessments of species extinction risk andmethods to identify how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss, are urgently required. Such assessments
are imperative to developing management actions that avoid the loss of key species or functional groups thatsustain ecosystem functions and services. A predictive framework to evaluate the extinction risk of coral reef
fishes to climate change disturbance was developed and linked with an existing framework for evaluating risk fromfisheries exploitation. Obligate corallivores, facultative corallivores and micro-invertebrate feeding functionalgroups are most vulnerable to climate change disturbances, with local rather than global extinctions more likely
for most species. The species most vulnerable to climate variation and change are least vulnerable to fishing andvice-versa, with the consequence that the entire fish community will be impacted on the many reefs where bothstressors occur. The groups of fishes involved in key ecosystem functions, including the recovery of reef habitat
following disturbance events, are more at risk from fishing impacts. Remarkably, this is an encouraging result,since local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can help to reduce the impacts of climatechange on reef ecosystems pending any global progress towards limiting greenhouse gas emissions.

27 April, 18:15 (B1-6328)

Comparison of benthic community structure in natural habitats of abalone Haliotis discus
hannai affected by different current systems
Nam-Il Won1, Tomohiko Kawamura1, Hideki Takami2, Hiroshi Hoshikawa3 and Yoshiro Watanabe1
123

Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Nakano, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan. E-mail: niwon@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan
Hokkaido Central Fisheries Experimental Station, Yoichi, Hokkaido, 046-8555, Japan

141

B1

Climate regime shifts have been suggested to influence fisheries production in various ways. Increasing concerns
about the effects of ecosystem level impacts of climate regime shifts on fisheries has given attention to benthic
community studies, compared with a long history of focus on pelagic ecosystems. The long time fluctuationof northern abalone (Haliotis discus hannai) catch in Japan has been suggested to be closely correlated with
the Aleutian Low. The low overwinter mortality of young-of-the-year (YOY) abalone in the warm regime
since the mid-1990s has increased the recruitment success of this overfished (collapsed) abalone species. To
understand possible impacts of climate regime shifts on benthic community structure in abalone habitats, species
composition and trophic structure in habitats H. discus hannai were investigated at Iwanai (Hokkaido prefecture)
and Tomarihama (Miyagi prefecture) coasts, which are affected by Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) and KuroshioOyashio Current (KOC), respectively. Species replacement was indicated in Tomarihama when compared with
community data 20 years ago. The newly occurred Homalopoma sangarense appeared to be less competitive
with early life stages of abalone for food. In contrast, the previously abundant congener H. amussitatum appeared
to compete for food with juvenile abalone. This study suggests that climate regime shifts could influence theproduction of abalone through shifts in trophic relations in the benthic community.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B1 Posters
B1-6025

Thermal refugia in the 21st century
Skip McKinnell1 and Enrique N. Curchitser2
1
2

PICES Secretariat, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, BC, V8L 4B2, Canada. E-mail: mckinnell@pices.int
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd., New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA

It is anticipated that by 2050 the global warming trend in the surface waters of the North Pacific Ocean will haveemerged from the background natural variability. Surface ocean temperatures are expected to be routinely warmer
than anything observed in human history. Many marine animals are known to have temperature preferencesthat place limits on their contemporary distributions. While eurythermal animals can tolerate a wide range oftemperatures, stenothermal animals must adapt, migrate, or die. Subarctic fauna will be particularly vulnerable
because of their connection to a cooler ocean. The ocean depths are a reservoir of cold water but it may not be
available to surface-dwelling animals except at times and places where turbulent mixing by winds and tides
bring this water to the surface. The upwelling ecosystem of the California Current is a contemporary exampleof physical processes providing refugia and migration corridors that allow Subarctic animals to survive at lower
latitudes. This study uses an high resolution numerical model of the Northeast Pacific (including tides) to compare
the thermal landscape of a contemporary summer ocean with what might be expected in a typical summer in theyear 2050. We seek to understand where winds and tides in the Northeast Pacific will provide thermal refugia for
Subarctic animals and to understand the quantity and location of habitat provided by this mechanism. Because it
has been relatively well studied, Pacific salmon habitat will be used as a case study.

B1-6046

Potential effects of climate change on the euphausiids Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa
spinifera off Newport, OR, USA
C. Tracy Shaw1, Leah R. Feinberg1 and William T. Peterson2
1

2

Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Oregon State University, 2030 SE Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR, 97365, USA
E-mail: tracy.shaw@oregonstate.edu
Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, 2030 SE Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR, 97365, USA

Climate change scenarios suggest that global warming will lead to stronger coastal upwelling and changes in themagnitude and duration of natural climate cycles such as the PDO. Our ongoing biweekly zooplankton sampling
program (1996-present) encompasses variations in timing and intensity of upwelling and cool and warm phasesof the PDO which allows us to investigate some potential effects of climate change on the euphausiids Euphausia
pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera. E. pacifica spawning is strongly associated with the timing of the onset of
upwelling but not with upwelling strength. Spawning peaks four months after the spring transition and juveniles
appear two months later. In 2005 upwelling was delayed and krill spawning was similarly delayed. Survivorshipof larvae produced that summer was considerably lower than during other years. T. spinifera spawn prior to andduring upwelling and seem to be more strongly affected by water temperature. 2002 was an anomalously cold
year and T. spinifera, usually a shelf species, were found far offshore. Their reproductive effort in 2002 was
the highest seen during this study. E. pacifica were not strongly affected by temperature variations and werealways present. T. spinifera were rare or absent during warmer ocean conditions. Changes in the timing of thespring transition are likely to affect E. pacifica spawning behavior. Consistently warmer ocean temperatures will
likely lead to a decrease in T. spinifera abundance and spawning. Both scenarios will affect the availability ofeuphausiids as a food source for higher trophic level predators.

142

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B1-6067

Long-term changes in fish larvae in the northern California Current in relation to climate
variability
Toby D. Auth1, Richard D. Brodeur2, Heather L. Soulen1, Lorenzo Ciannelli3 and William T. Peterson2
1

2

3

Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Oregon State University, Hatfield Marine Science Center, 2030 Marine Science Dr.,
Newport, OR, 97365, USA
Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, Hatfield Marine Science Center, 2030 Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR, 97365,
USA. E-mail: rick.brodeur@noaa.gov
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 104 COAS Administration Bldg., Corvallis, OR, 97331, USA

We conducted a statistical analysis of the relationships between larval fish concentrations and community
structure and both large-scale and local environmental factors to assess the effect of climate change on larval fishin the northern California Current (NCC) in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Larval fish concentration and taxon
composition data were from samples collected at two nearshore stations along the Newport Hydrographic (NH)line off the coast of central Oregon, USA. Data from 1996-2005 were compared with historical data from the1970s and 1980s to evaluate pseudo-decadal, annual, and seasonal variability. Our results indicate that the mostabundant taxa from 1996-2005 differ from those of earlier decades. Concentrations of the dominant taxa andtotal larvae were generally greater in the winter/spring than summer/fall season. Climate indices, such as Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Northern Oscillation Index (NOI), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) and local
environmental factors, such as upwelling, Ekman transport, and wind stress curl were related to observed changes
in ichthyoplankton concentrations (based on generalized additive modeling) with lag periods ranging from zero
to seven months for the various environmental variables. We found that the large-scale climate indices explained
more of the variance in overall larval fish concentration and diversity, as well as that of the dominant taxa, than did
the more local factors. Our results indicate that readily-available oceanographic and climate indices can explain
variations in the dominant ichthyoplankton taxa in the NCC.

B1-6091

Seasonal change in species composition of hydromedusae and the effect of environmental
change in Onagawa Bay, northeastern Japan
Genta Takeda, Yoshinari Endo and Waka Sato-Okoshi
Laboratory of Aquatic Ecology, Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Tohoku University, 1-1 Amamiya-machi, Tsutsumi-dori, Aoba-ku,
Sendai, 981-8555, Japan. E-mail: yendo@bios.tohoku.ac.jp

143

B1

We investigated the seasonal change in species composition and abundance of hydromedusae in Onagawa Bay forthree years from December 2006 to November 2009. Among 26 species that occurred in this study, only 7 werecollected every year; Obelia spp., Euphysa aurata, Clytia spp., Proboscidactyla flavicirrata, Muggiaea atlantica
and M. spiralis. They also appeared in almost the same season every year, which suggests that their life cycle iscompleted in the bay. In contrast, species that occurred only in a specific year are thought to have been transported
from offshore, including warm-water species such as Proboscidactyla ornata and Podocoryne minima, whose
occurrence are reported in lower latitudes. These species seem to have been transported by a warm-core ring thatstayed close to the bay in 2007. Such anomalous oceanographic conditions has the potential to change species
composition drastically in the bay. Obelia spp., the most dominant species, formed three peaks of abundance
every year; winter, spring, and autumn. Based on water temperature at the peak occurrence and morphologicalfeatures of gonads of mature medusae, the Obelia species that formed peaks in winter and spring seems to be
O. longissima and the autumn medusae are thought to be a different Obelia species. The spring peak of
O. longissima in 2007 was quite high and seems to be caused by higher water temperatures due to the earlier
cessation of cold Oyashio water inflow than during other years. We will discuss implications for changes in
species assemblages of hydromedusae in the future as water temperatures increase.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B1-6100

Ecosystem implications of the recent southward shift of key components in the southern
BenguelaKate E. Watermeyer¹, A. Jarre¹, L.J. Shannon¹ and Larry Hutchings¹,²
1

2

Marine Biology Research Institute, Dept. of Zoology, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, 7701, South Africa
E-mail: kwatermeyer@gmail.com
Marine and Coastal Management, Private Bag X2, Rogge Bay, 8012, South Africa

The southern Benguela system can be divided into two regions: the west coast system characterised by seasonal,
wind-driven upwelling, and the south coast, which includes the Agulhas Bank and thus has characteristics of botha shelf system and an upwelling system. Over previous decades, a number of commercially and ecologicallyimportant species (sardine, anchovy, rock lobster and horse mackerel) have undergone southward/ eastward shifts
in their distributions. This has had numerous known and countless unknown biological implications for trophicallylinked species, as well as sometimes severe economic implications for the industries involved. This project
aims to investigate possible ecosystem-level impacts of these shifts, and of any changes in physical variables inthe southern Benguela, on the biological components of both the ecosystem as a whole and of the south coast
subsystem, now playing a more important role both commercially and biologically. Data-derived indicators will
be compiled, including indicators of spatial overlap, and ultimately used to drive a frame-based model to be
developed as a tool for further exploring the nature of this shift in sardine distribution and to better understand theprocesses affected.

B1-6125

Effect of water masses on larval fish distribution during the summer SW monsoon in
Taiwanese waters, western North Pacific
Wen-Tseng Lo1, Hung-Yen Hsieh1,2, Dong-Chung Liu3 and Wei-Cheng Su3
1

2

3

Institute of Marine Biotechnology and Resources, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan 804, ROC
E-mail: lowen@mail.nsysu.edu.tw
Coastal and Offshore Resources Research Center, Fisheries Research Institute of the Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan,
Kaohsiung, Taiwan 806, ROC
Fisheries Research Institute of the Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, Keelung, Taiwan 202, ROC

The spatial distribution patterns of larval fish assemblages and the relationships with hydrographic conditionsin Taiwanese waters were studied in August 2004 when the southwesterly monsoon prevailed. A total of 6566
larval fishes were identified, belonging to 80 families, 129 genera, and 230 species. Cluster analysis revealed
two station groups, one associated with the South China Sea Surface Current (SCSSC) and the other with the
Kuroshio Current (KC). The SCSSC group was characterized by mostly coastal and neritic species, and the KC
group was predominated by oceanic species. Larger larval fishes were generally more abundant in the neritic
waters west of Taiwan where the SCSSC prevails than in the waters east of Taiwan where the KC prevails. The
combination of chlorophyll a, zooplankton, and nitrite best explained the relationship of larval fish distributions
and environmental variables, implying that the distributions of larval fish in summer were closely linked to foodsource. The changing of monsoons potentially affects the succession of water masses and the transport andassembly of larval fish species in this study area.

144

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B1-6170

Ecosystem responses to ocean stratification and early-bloom occurrence in the future
western subarctic North Pacific: A speculation from retrospective analyses
Tsuneo Ono1, Kazuaki Tadokoro2 and the A-line Monitoring Team31

2
3

Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 116 Katsurakoi, Kushiro, 085-0802, Japan
E-mail: tono@fra.affrc.go.jp
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, 985-0001, Japan
Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute and Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, Japan

Several ecosystem models predict that both the enhancement of upper-ocean stratification and the advancementof spring bloom initiation will occur in the future western subarctic North Pacific. However, integrated impact ofthese two processes to the oceanic ecosystem had not been precisely investigated. Based on a 50-year retrospective
analyses of the oceanic environment and zooplankton stock in the western subarctic North Pacific region, we
found that both of these two processes, upper-ocean stratification and early-blooming trends, had previously
existed in this region during the period from the 1960s to the present.
Time series analyses of several lower-trophic level ecosystem parameters showed that: 1) Enhanced stratification
caused decrease of mixed-layer nutrient content just before the spring bloom, and this lead to declining net
primary production and phytoplankton abundance during the spring bloom; 2) Reduced size of spring bloom led
to enhanced zooplankton mortality rate in the post-bloom seasons, but advancement of the spring bloom initiation
improved food availability of the early-spring seasons.
Zooplankton response against these oceanographic changes, therefore, varied with species depending on therelative importance of early- and post-bloom food conditions in their life cycle. It is not clear that these changes
are the direct reflection of past global warming, but observed ecosystem changes associated with these past trends
provide us with some indication of future responses to predicted climatic metamorphoses.

B1-6175

Time series observations of chlorophyll fluorescence along the Kuroshio Extension byprofiling floats
Sachihiko Itoh, Ichiro Yasuda, Tohru Ikeya and Haruka Nishikawa
Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
E-mail: itohsach@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Three profiling floats equipped with a fluorescence sensor were deployed in May 2008 around the axis of theKuroshio, near its separation point from the continental shelf and they moved eastward with upper-layer flows
to the Kuroshio Extension region. The floats were designed to park at 40 m depth and measure temperature,salinity, and in vivo chlorophyll fluorescence profiles from the surface to 500 db depth every 5 days. Chlorophyll
fluorescence measurements continued for more than 1 year by two of the floats, as they migrated along thenorthern and southern flanks of the Kuroshio Extension, respectively. For both of these floats, seasonal variationin chlorophyll fluorescence basically reflected that of mixed layer depth, while shorter-term fluctuations occurred,
possibly reflecting short-term atmospheric forcing or frontal disturbances of the Kuroshio Extension, or both.
This short-term fluctuation showed larger amplitude in the northern flank than in the southern flank throughout
the year. Discussion will be made on food availability of larval Japanese sardine and Japanese anchovy, which aresuggested by recent studies to be critical for the recruitment success of these species.

B1

145

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B1-6223

Long-term temporal trends in ichthyoplankton community composition in the southern
California Current System
Andrey Suntsov and Tony Koslow
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 9500 Gilman Dr., La Jolla, CA, 92093-0218, USA. E-mail: tkoslow@ucsd.edu

Long-term monitoring of the southern California Current System, carried out by the California Cooperative
Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) since 1951, provides a unique opportunity for documenting changes in pelagic
communities. We examined decadal-scale variability in ichthyoplankton community composition using several
multivariate approaches based on total area-averaged larval densities of 112 representative taxa recorded during
1951-2007 (44 years). Cluster analysis revealed that the principal change in the larval fish community closely
matched the regime shift observed in the late 1970s, with the 1951-1969 period clearly distinct from 1984-2007.
Of the 50 mesopelagic taxa used in the analysis, 43 increased in abundance during 1984-2007 vs. 1951-1969,
mostly represented by species with central gyre and southern affinities, while cold-water midwater species(e.g. Tarletonbeania crenularis, Stenobrachius leucopsarus) or non-migrating species (Cyclothone spp.) weremore abundant during earlier (colder) decades. Sardinops sagax, Vinciguerria lucetia, Merluccius productus and
Lipolagus okhotensis were the primary species contributing to the changeover to warm-regime communities, andEngraulis mordax, Trachurus symmetricus and Leuroglossus stilbius were primarily favored during cold periods.
We used non-metric multidimensional scaling and principal component analysis to explore additional temporal
patterns not revealed by one-dimensional cluster analysis, as well as to examine species responsible for minor
variations in community composition. In this presentation we will detail how oceanographic conditions in thesouthern California Current may have influenced the structure of ichthyoplankton community over the last six
decades and how species with differing ecological affinities show a range of responses to both short and long-termclimate variability in the region.

B1-6238

Uncertain future of fish populations in Argentinean coastal lakes: The impact of severe
droughts and floods
Rubén J. Lara1, Germán A. Kopprio1, Carlos A. Strüssmann2 and Hugo Freije3
123

Wetland Biogeochemistry, Leibniz Center for Tropical Marine Ecology, Fahrenheitstrasse 6, 28359 Bremen, Germany
E-mail: ruben.lara@zmt-bremen.deMarine Biosciences, Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Konan 4-5-7, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan
Environmental Chemistry, Universidad Nacional del Sur, Av. Alem 1253, B8000CPB Bahía Blanca, Argentina

Climate change impacts fish dynamics and represents a challenge of faster thermal adaptation for South American
fish. The Argentinean pampas had registered increasing rainfall and severe floods during the last 3 decades.
However, since 2007 a rigorous drought has affected the region. Chasicó Lake belongs to an endorreic basin
particularly sensitive to hydrologic alterations, responding with dramatic changes in extension and salinity. In
1963, Chasicó was a hypersaline water body of ~3000 ha, devoid of fish due to salinities of ~100 g L-1. Afterthe floods, it expanded to ~12,000 ha and salinity decreased to ~20 g L-1. Odontesthes bonariensis entered thelake through Chasicó River after the inundations and found the moderate salinities that favor its growth at early
development stages. This resulted in a drastic increase of fish size and stock over a few years, and shifts in humanstakeholder structure. During the current dry phase, 2009 underwent the worst drought of the last 7 decades.
This worsened the natural eutrophic state of pampean water bodies and increased their salinity. Particularly inthe shallower lakes, severe fish mortalities occurred, likely due to high temperature, anoxia, toxic cyanobacteria
blooms, or some combination of these. During 2007 and 2008 the water level in Chasicó decreased about 1 meterand salinity increased to 23 g L-1. The sensitive response of this ecosystem to the changing character of droughts
and inundations predicted for the late 20th century illustrates its potential as an indicator of future coastal changes
that could generate new risks or opportunities for fish populations and society.

146

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B1-6274

Studies on the hydrobiology of the coconut husk retting grounds in the AVM Canal in
Thoothoor region, southwest coast of India
Sekharapilla Premjith
Department of Advanced Zoology and Biotechnology, St. Jude’s College, M.S. University, Thoothoor, Tamilnadu, 629176, India
E-mail: drpremjith@rediffmail.com

The present investigation pertains to the environmental and faunal characteristics of three selected stations within
the Anantha Victoria Marthanda Varma (AVM) Canal along the Thoothoor coast, which is polluted by coconut
husk retting activity. Physico-chemical parameters were studied along with plankton and nekton and results were
presented. A seasonal pattern of phytoplankton group was lacking in the present study. Algal blooms have notbeen observed during any time of the year, but a seasonal variation of zooplankton was observed in the present
investigation. The fish larvae in the present study - the icthyoplankton of the zooplankton community - occurred
only in non-retting zones. Only two species of fish were conspicuous at all stations during all seasons. The
overall fish production from the system has declined as a result of retting pollution. The discharge of pollutants
into natural water resources results in the deterioration of the physical, chemical, and biological qualities of water.
The pollution has highly toxic effects on the growth of various planktonic and nektonic organisms, and causes
depletion of oxygen. These organisms can act as important indicators of pollution in fresh water and brackish
water bodies.

B1-6333

Early life history of Euphausia pacifica in the western North PacificYuji Okazaki and Kazuaki Tadokoro
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan
E-mail: okazakiy@affrc.go.jp

Euphausiids often play a key role in food webs because of their trophic position between primary producers
and fishes or marine mammals. Thus, their biological and ecological responses to climate change are importantfor marine ecosystems and fisheries. In the western North Pacific, Euphausia pacifica is the most abundant
euphausiid, and thus are key species in the ecosystem. However, changes in the biology and ecology of
E. pacifica in relation to climate change are poorly known in the western North Pacific because long-term data on
this species are very limited. On the other hand, previous work indicated that springtime abundance of E. pacifica
eggs and larvae correlated well with their adult abundance during summer-autumn. This result implies thatinterannual variation in abundance of early stages of E. pacifica could be a good indicator of their long population
changes. This variation can be examined over the long term because eggs and larvae are easily sampled by small
plankton nets such as the NORPAC net, which has been used to collect samples since the 1950’s. To explore
this possibility, we investigated the spatial and seasonal distribution of E. pacifica larvae in the western North
Pacific using BONGO nets (0.33mm mesh size with 0.6m diameter) and NORPAC nets (0.33mm mesh size with
0.45m diameter). In 2006 and 2007, BONGO nets captured Calyptopsis spp. and Furcilla spp. throughout year,
especially during spring. This seasonal pattern well corresponds to spring bloom.

B1

147

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B1-6382

Climate and fishing pressure drive a non stationary behaviour in the long-term changesof pelagic food webs in European Shelf Seas
Juan Carlos Molinero1, Michele Casini2, Jakov Dulcic3, Branka Grbec3, Manuel Hidalgo4, Lyudmila Kambourska5,Andreas Lehman1, Marcos Llope4 and Mira Morovic3
1

2
3
4

5

Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, IFM-GEOMAR, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, 24105, Germany
E-mail: jmolinero@ifm-geomar.de
Swedish Board of Fisheries, Institute of Marine Research, Box 4, Lysekil, 54321, Sweden
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Setaliste Ivana Mestrovica 63, Split, 21000, Croatia
Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Olso, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, Oslo,
0316, Norway
Joint Research Centre (EC-JRC), Ispra, 21020, Italy

Quantifying the extent to which the interactions between plankton and fish, and potential trophic cascades, aredriven by anthropogenic or climate forcing, or their synergies, is crucial to develop an ecosystem approach tofisheries management in a changing world ocean. In this study, we used a combined approach based on regional
climatology, time series analysis and meta-analysis techniques of ecological data to investigate the response of
pelagic food webs, from primary producers to fish, to fishing pressure and climate-related stressors in European
shelf seas. The quantitative synthesis allows identifying the transient dynamics and leading linkages between
climate, plankton and fish, whose long term variability reveals periods of coupled and uncoupled changes
emphasizing a non-stationary behavior. We show that over the second half of the twenty century, extreme climate
events have triggered coherent changes, despite reductions in fishing pressure, in pelagic food webs regardlessof longitudinal (i.e. oceanic connectivity) and latitudinal (i.e. temperature) gradients of the European Shelf
Seas. These results indicate that sound actions for European marine resources require fundamentally a regional
coordinated framework.

B1-6415

Identification of the relationship between environmental features and copepod abundancesin the Kuroshio waters adjacent to eastern Taiwan using generalized additive models
Yu-Kai Chen1, Yi-Jay Chang2, Chi-Lu Sun2, Chi-Lun Wu1, Dong-Chung Liu1 and Wei-Cheng Su1
1
2

Fisheries Research Institute, Council of Agriculture, Executive Yuan, Keelung, Taiwan, 20246, ROC. E-mail: ykchen@mail.tfrin.gov.tw
Institute of Oceanography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, 10617, ROC

Spatial distribution patterns of copepod abundances were analyzed in relation to environmental variables in the
Kuroshio waters adjacent to eastern Taiwan. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to examine
the relative influence of environmental factors on copepod abundance in this region. Data for the analysis werecollected during quarterly cruises of the TaiCOFI program from 2005 to 2008. To construct a GAM, relationships
between environmental variables (season, chlorophyll a concentration, temp. at 5 m, temp. at 100 m, temp.
differences between 5 m and 100 m, salinity at 5 m) and copepod abundances were analyzed. Stepwise GAM
building revealed the relative importance of the variables in explaining the variance in copepod abundance. The
variables ranked (1) season, (2) Chl-a concentration, (3) temp. at 100 m, (4) salinity at 5 m, (5) temp. at 5 m and(6) temp. differences between 5 m and 100 m in decreasing order. Time series of copepod abundance standardized
for physical and biotic factors quantified in the GAM showed that the spatial pattern of copepod abundance
was characterized by noticeable high abundances associated with higher chlorophyll a concentration, lower
temperature at 5 m and lower salinity at 5 m in the northwestern (121.5~122°E, 23.5~24.5°N) and southwestern(121~121.5°E, 22~23°N) nearshore region of the study area.

148

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B2 Oral Presentations
28 April, 9:05 (B2-6213), Invited

Changes in productivity of marine ecosystems from low to high latitudes under climate
variability and change
Svein Sundby
Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes, Bergen, 5817, Norway. E-mail: svein.sundby@imr.no

The world oceans comprise a large diversity of marine ecosystems where key populations have developed alarge diversity of adaptations to physical forcing. Moreover, the critical physical processes for productivity
vary between marine ecosystems. Together, these factors generate large differences in how energy propagatesfrom primary production to higher trophic levels. Climate change in the ocean will, therefore, has no uniform
impact on the productivity of different marine ecosystems, but will differ widely, depending on structure andfunction. Examples of responses in subtropical ecosystems, upwelling ecosystems, high-latitude shelf systems,
high-latitude oceanic ecosystem, and Arctic ecosystems are given. On the large scale, a general displacement ofspecies towards higher latitudes is expected to occur as a result of global warming. But on the regional scale, more
complicated responses will occur because of specific interactions of species with different physical constraints.
Decadal and multidecadal climate oscillations in the North Atlantic during the 20th century have given us someindications on how populations and marine ecosystems respond to climate variability of different periodicity.
Persistent climate signals have different impacts than climate signals of shorter periodicity.

28 April, 9:30 (B2-6225)

On the utility of self-organizing maps (SOM) and k-means clustering to characterizeand compare low frequency spatial and temporal climate impacts on marine ecosystemproductivity
Jae Bong Lee1 and Bernard A. Megrey2
12

National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, 408-1 Shirang-ri, Gijang, Busan, 619-905, R Korea
NOAA, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA
E-mail: Bern.Megrey@noaa.gov

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock (S) variability from 17 stocks were comparedamong functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were
aggregated into four regions, including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, and theeastern Bering Sea and the Gulf of Alaska. Self organizing maps (SOM) and k-means clustering were used to
examine patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in recruitment and spawning stock indices among and between
ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins, among functionally analogous species groups and among largescale atmospheric indices. Time series trends in the ln(R/S) response variable showed consistent within-basin
similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. SOMS andk-means clustering provide a highly visual tool to easily identify patterns in the timing of high or low productivity
years across both species and ecosystems. Many of the peaks in the time series were synchronous within an
ocean basin and opposing alternations in patterns of productivity were observed in ecosystems in between the
Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within
ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change
in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that productivity inthe two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown climatic mechanisms that, depending on the year,
generate low frequency opposing alternations in the two basins.

B2

149

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 9:45 (B2-6278)

Marine climate change impacts: Out of sight but not out of mind
Elvira S. Poloczanska1, Keith Brander2, Chris Brown1,3, John Bruno4, Lauren Buckley5, Michael T. Burrows6,
Carlos Duarte7, Pippa Moore8, Mary O’Connor9, John Pandolfi10, Camille Parmesan11, Maria Sanchez-Camacho7,
David Schoeman12, William J. Sydeman13 and Anthony J. Richardson1,14,15
1

2

3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

11
12
13
14
15

Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 120, Cleveland, QLD, 4163, Australia
E-mail: Elvira.Poloczanska@csiro.au
National Institute of Aquatic Resources, Technical University of Denmark, Charlottenlund Slot, Jægersborg Allé 1, Charlottenlund,
Denmark
Spatial Ecology Lab, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Department of Marine Sciences, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3300, USA
The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, 27599-3280, USA
Scottish Association of Marine Science, Dunstaffnage Marine Laboratory, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, UK
Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados (IMEDEA), C/Miquel Marqués 21, 07190 Esporles (Mallorca), Spain
Centre for Marine Ecosystems Management, Edith Cowan University, 270 Joondalup Dr., Joondalup, WA, 6027, Australia
National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State St., Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA
Centre for Marine Studies, School of Earth Sciences, and ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of
Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, 4072, Australia
University of Texas, Integrative Biology, 1 University Station C0930, Austin, TX, 78712, USA
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Ulster, Coleraine campus, Cromore Rd., Coleraine, Co. Londonderry, BT52 1SA, UK
Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, P.O. Box 750756, Petaluma, CA, 94975, USA
University of Queensland, School of Mathematics and Physics, St. Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia
The Ecology Centre, The University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD, 4072, Australia

Climate change is impacting our global biodiversity. The IPCC 4th Assessment Report reported 28,671 significant
biological changes globally of which 90% were consistent with climate change. Few were from the Southern
Hemisphere, which may be attributed to a lack of studies at regional or national scales. In addition, less than 0.3%of these biological changes were from marine systems. This fundamental information is critical for developing
integrated and adaptive management strategies to protect marine environments and fisheries in the future. We
aim to address key questions concerning the vulnerability of marine systems to climate change such as: Whichmarine species, taxonomic groups and systems (e.g., pelagic, benthic, rocky shore, sandy beach, coral reef) aremost sensitive? What are the similarities and differences in the types and rates of responses in tropical, temperate
and polar seas? To what extent do human stressors such as fishing increase vulnerability of species and habitats
to climate change? To address these questions, we are building a marine climate impacts database employing an
innovative tiered approach to classify impacts which will cover the peer-reviewed literature as well as the grey
literature where many valuable fisheries studies are found. Evidence suggests responses from marine systems,
in terms of distribution and phenological shifts, may be faster than from land systems. Preliminary results fromthe database will be presented. We encourage researchers to submit their papers and reports for inclusion; thedatabase will eventually be publicly-accessible through the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis(USA) data repository.

28 April, 10:00 (B2-6261)

Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine ecosystems
Thomas A. Okey1,2, Jameal F. Samhouri3, Cameron H. Ainsworth3, D. Shallin Busch3 and William L. Cheung4
1
2
3

4

West Coast Vancouver Island Aquatic Management Board, 3-4310 10th Ave., Port Alberni, BC, V9Y 4X4, Canada
University of Victoria School of Environmental Studies, Victoria, BC, V8P 5C2, Canada
NOAA-Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2725 Montlake Blvd. E., Seattle, WA, 98112, USA
E-mail: jameal.samhouri@noaa.gov
University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK

We assembled a set of Ecopath with Ecosim models to explore the impacts of climate change on various indicatorsof ecosystem structure and function in the Northeast Pacific Ocean. The effects of projected future changes inprimary productivity on marine biological communities of Australia was recently explored using a set of Ecopath
with Ecosim models from that region, with indications of increased Australian fisheries production related to thoseprojected changes. In addition to differences in primary production, several other dimensions of oceanographic
change may prove equally, if not more, important in shaping future ecological communities. These include
effects of temperature on species’ bioenergetic rates and biogeographic ranges, effects of ocean acidification on

150

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
species survival and productivity, and effects of declining oxygen concentrations on mortality rates of sessile
species. Ocean temperature and acidification are predicted to increase in the Northeast Pacific region basedon oceanographic modeling, and the frequency of low dissolved oxygen events will likely increase as well.
The goal of the present exploration was to model the combined effects of climate-induced changes in at least
temperature and pH on fisheries landings, fisheries value, community biomass, diversity, mean trophic level, andother ecosystem characteristics.

28 April, 10:15 (B2-6244)

Ecosystem response to future climate change in the Northeast Atlantic: Results from the
RECLAIM Project
Kenneth Drinkwater1 and the RECLAIM Team1

Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes, Bergen, N5817, Norway. E-mail: ken.drinkwater@imr.no

Comparisons of the expected ecosystem responses to future climate change in the Northeast Atlantic from the
Barents Sea south to the Bay of Biscay, and including the Baltic Sea, will be presented based upon results from therecently completed RECLAIM (Resolving CLimAtic Impacts on fish stocks) Project. In addition to examining
similarities and differences in the latitudinal responses, consideration will also be given to the differences between
the near coast, shelf and the open ocean. Lacking downscaled regional models for most of the study areas, resultsfrom some “what if” scenarios will be presented. Following discussion of projected changes in the physicaloceanography of the various regions, comparison of the possible changes in the phytoplankton and zooplankton
production and timing will be given. A major emphasis of the talk will be on the expected changes to the major
fish stocks, especially how and why the responses differ in the different regions. This will include changes
in production, recruitment, distribution, migration patterns, and phenology. In addition, a discussion of therequirements to improve future ecosystem projections that will emphasize the need for improved regional models
and quantitative measures of uncertainty in the projections will be highlighted.

28 April, 10:30 (B2-6188)

Are general mechanisms found behind regime shifts across marine ecosystems?
Susa Niiranen1,2, Thorsten Blenckner1 and Reinette Biggs3
1

2
3

Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden
E-mail: susa.niiranen@stockholmresilience.su.se
Department of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, SE-106 91, Sweden

During the last decade a number of studies on regime shifts in various marine ecosystems have been publishedwith a number of different regime-shift detection methods. We address the use of various methods and assess
the comparativeness between studies based on a representative collection of regime-shift descriptions publishedacross marine ecosystems. Mapping the different methods and combining this knowledge with the data produced
is a necessary step towards studying the potential to quantify marine regime shifts on a global scale. We will
also compare the effects that single (e.g., climate or fishery) and multiple regime-shift drivers have had on thethreshold, timing and/or amplitude of the ecosystem shift in the various ecosystems. This information is required
for the adaptation of human practices, such as fishery quotas, to accommodate the future changes in climate. Most
importantly, the published marine ecosystem regime-shift studies seldom touch upon the mechanisms of change
and feedback loops related, but focus on describing the amplitudes, new regime periods and main causal drivers.
We hypothesize that general mechanisms and feedback loops are behind regime shifts detected across different
ecosystems, potentially even behind shifts brought up by differing drivers. Hence, to fill in the knowledge gap we
aim to identify these central mechanisms from regime shifts documented on well-studied ecosystems such as theBaltic Sea, Black Sea, North Sea and Japan/East Sea. Identifying common key mechanisms would increase thepredictability of potential future shifts and potentially facilitate their mitigation.

B2

151

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 11:05 (B2-6054), Invited

Housing crisis: Climate change-induced habitat loss impacts on temperate and tropicalfishesNicholas K. Dulvy
Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
E-mail: dulvy@sfu.ca

Climate change is rapidly warming the oceans, reducing fish habitat which, in turn, influences fish community
structure. I show how this plays out both in temperate demersal fish assemblages and coral reef fish assemblages.
North Sea winter bottom temperature has increased by 1·6°C over 25 years; this has eliminated cold water habitat(isotherms) and has led to the expansion of the areal extent of warm water habitats. This has resulted in incoherent
latitudinal shifts and a coherent deepening of the whole demersal fish assemblage. The incoherent latitudinalrange shifts result from the peculiarities of local bathymetry and hydrography which modulate regional warming
to produce southward distributional shifts that are consistent with anthropogenic climate change. In contrast to
the fluid habitats (isotherms) of temperate shelf seas, coral reefs are a key static habitat in tropical coastal seas.
Coral reefs are suffering unprecedented rates of coral mortality and architectural collapse due to a range of direct
climate impacts and indirect fishing related impacts. The architectural complexity of coral reefs underpins species
coexistence: complex reefs support a greater diversity of reef fishes and longer food chains. I unveil the collapseof Caribbean reefs and examine the drivers, non-linearity and lags in the collapse of Caribbean reef habitat.
Finally, I examine how climate-induced coral reef habitat losses impact reef fish communities in Fiji.

28 April, 11:30 (B2-6043)

Spatial and interannual variability in oceanography, plankton and forage fish in the
Bering Sea: Results from U.S. BASIS surveys for 2002-2008
Lisa B. Eisner1, Seth Danielson2, Edward W. Farley1, Jeanette Gann1 and Markus Janout1
1

2

Ted Stevens Marine Research Institute, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, 17109 Point Lena Loop Rd., Juneau, AK,
99801, USA. E-mail: lisa.eisner@noaa.gov
School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 114 O’Neill Bldg., Fairbanks, AK, 99775-7220, USA

Oceanographic and fisheries data were collected during late summer/early fall in the eastern Bering Sea (EBS)on U.S. BASIS (Bering Aleutian Salmon International Survey) cruises during 2002-2008. We describe variations
in nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations, zooplankton taxonomic composition and diets of forage fish (e.g.
juvenile salmon, pollock) in relation to physical oceanographic conditions for warm and cold years. Our analysis
includes comparisons between the southern and northern Bering Sea. The southern area was characterized byhigher temperature (T) and salinity (S), greater vertical stability and greater interannual variation in T, reflecting
interannual variations in sea ice extent. In contrast, the northern area showed lower T and S (more freshwater),stronger cross-front gradients, greater mixed layer depths, and high beam attenuation (more particles in the water).
These data provide further evidence for the importance of pelagic food webs in the south and benthic food websin the northern Bering Sea. Temperature and zooplankton distributions varied between warm (2002-2005) andcold (2006-2008) years with larger copepods (e.g. Calanus marshallae) seen on the EBS shelf in years withlower mean water T and an extensive near-bottom cold pool (T < 2°C). This analysis helps to link habitat andzooplankton prey availability with abundance, distribution and fitness of forage fish prior to winter, and provides
information on the underlying oceanographic processes affecting the EBS ecosystems and potential responses toclimate fluctuations.

152

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 11:45 (B2-6012)

Climatic trends and long-term changes in species composition and abundance of pelagic
fishes along the Sakhalin coast in the Japan Sea and the Okhotsk Sea
Anatoliy Ya. Velikanov
Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (SakhNIRO), 196 Komsomolskaya St., Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693023, Russia
E-mail: velikanov@sakhniro.ru

Along both the western and eastern Sakhalin coasts, the frequency of major non-abundant south-latitude fishes
increased during the years when the intensity of the Tsushima Warm Current was high (1947-1949; 2002-2008).
Seasonal migrations of Pacific sardine and Japanese anchovy in the same areas have been observed mainly in years
with an opposite climatic mode. A similar change in abundance has been observed for the basic cold-water fish
species that spawn in winter-spring and summer-autumn seasons. In the 1970s-1980s, when the intensity of the
Tsushima Current was low, a relatively high abundance was common for populations of walleye pollock, herring,
capelin and other species which reproduce during the winter-spring period. In the late 1980s and in the 1990s,
the intensity of the Tsushima Current increased, but the stocks of the above-mentioned species were considerably
reduced. However, fish species, which spawned in summer and autumn, on the contrary, essentially increased in
numbers. Under similar general trends, abundance dynamics of the major fish species along western and eastern
Sakhalin had certain differences. For example, a period of high abundance for herring, pollock, sardine andarabesque greenling populations was longer in the Okhotsk Sea, whereas for anchovy and pink salmon in the Tatar
Strait. In 1950-2008, opposite-directed trends have been observed for pink salmon annual catch dynamics along
western and eastern Sakhalin. It is obvious that spatial-temporal responses of marine ecosystems to climatic mode
shifts in the Japan Sea and southwestern part of the Okhotsk Sea differ according to their specific characteristics.

28 April, 12:00 (B2-6296)

Response of dominant species in coastal and oceanic regions of Peru
Miguel Ñiquen and Cecilia Peña
Pelagic Resource Area, Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE), Gamarra y General Valle s/n Chucuito, Apartado 22, Callao, Lima, PerúE-mail: mniquen@imarpe.gob.pe

Well known is the spatial and temporal nearshore interaction in Peruvian waters of the anchovy (Engraulis
ringens) and sardine (Sardinops sagax), but there also exists another spatial interaction between two dominant
species: anchovy and lanternfish (Vinciguerria lucetia). A key point between both species is that they have similar
characteristics such as a short life span, small size, schooling behaviour, high biomass, but they inhabit different
regions: anchovy is a nearshore pelagic species while the lanternfish is an oceanic mesopelagic species. The goalof this study is to show that the same climate signal affects the response of resources in different ways, dependingon the distribution of the resources.
A comparison of the responses was evaluated during climate extreme phases. The study area corresponded to
Peruvian Sea, from 3°30ʺS to the boundary with Chile, based on research survey data. It was found that in
an extreme cold event (La Niña), the anchovy extended its latitudinal and longitudinal distribution while thepresence and abundance of lanternfish was notably diminished; on the other hand, in an extreme warm event(El Niño), the latitudinal distribution of anchovy retreated from the north to the central–southern zone and thelanternfish expanded its distribution to nearshore region, mainly in the southern zone due to the lower extensionof continental shelf.
Due to the impact of climate variability, we must take account a possible increase in new species associated with
Vinciguerria and the future development of new fisheries.

B2

153

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 12:15 (B2-6247)

The limits for forecasting fish population dynamics under changing climate scenarios:
The example of small pelagic fishes
Jürgen Alheit
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Seestr. 15, Warnemünde, 18119, Germany. E-mail: juergen.alheit@io-warnemuende.de

Population size of small pelagic fish species, such herring, sprat, anchovy, sardine and sardinella in waters
surrounding Europe, has been shown to swing in association with the dynamics of oscillating climate indices,in particular the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) indices.
Whereas the NAO is a decadal-scale atmospheric index, which is based on the difference of atmospheric pressure
at sea level between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, the AMO, a multidecadal-scale oscillating patternof sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, is an oceanographic index. Both oscillations do not swing in
synchrony. When comparing reactions of small pelagics since the early 19th century over a range of different
ecosystems (coastal, semi-enclosed, shelf, open ocean) to these climatic oscillations, it turns out that they change
population size and distribution primarily in association with either the NAO or the AMO. In some cases, bothoscillations seem to affect small pelagics populations. It is debated in the climate community whether NAO
and AMO dynamics can be predicted. In addition, recent studies suggest that the NAO comprises four different“weather regimes”, not only a positive and a negative phase, whereby spatial changes in the location of the
Icelandic Low and the Azores High are considered. Consequently, forecasting the size of small pelagic fish
populations for the next 5-10 years, as desired by fisheries managers, does not seem very feasible under the
climatic conditions described here.

28 April, 12:30 (B2-6023)

Thermal limits and coastal migration of chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) determinedby submesoscale circulation
Konstantin Rogachev
Department of Ocean Physics, V.I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute (POI), FEB RAS, 43 Baltiyskaya St., Vladivostok, Primorsky
Kray, 690041, Russia. E-mail: rogachev@poi.dvo.ru

The upper layer temperature is a primary oceanographic factor influencing the southern limit of Pacific salmon
distribution. Thermal boundaries limit the distribution of salmon species in the Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas.
This occurs because temperature-dependent metabolic rates exceed energy intake from feeding over large regions.
All species of salmon on the route to spawning grounds require pure well-oxygenated cold water. We show thatvast regions (Oyashio, and Okhotsk and Bering seas) exhibit a warming trend. This rate of warming is much
faster than that of the Global Ocean and the Okhotsk Sea. Adult chum salmon migrate at depth to avoid thehigh temperature. However, it is impossible to perform such a migration in shallow coastal waters. The coastal
ecosystem in the northwestern Sea of Japan serves as a migration route and spawning habitat for wild salmon
species. The present study combines satellite data with physical observations to examine physical/biologicalcoupling within this coastal ecosystem. Mesoscale eddies and associated submesoscale filaments are importantfeatures of the region. We show significant warming due to the penetration of warm submesoscale filaments.
These events establish advection of warm water and determine the thermal limits for species in shallow coastal
areas. Water exchange with the slope region determines an unfavorable regime for the spawning migration of
salmon species to freshwater. The observed temperature increase will severely restrict the area of their habitat that
supports growth and will potentially exclude salmon from their current habitat.

154

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 12:45 (B2-6228)

Changes in the stock size and life history traits of Japanese common squid Todarodes
pacificus in relation to climate changes, with special comparison between in the KuroshioOyashio currents region and the Sea of Japan
Hideaki Kidokoro1, Norio Yamashita2, Tsuneo Goto1 and Yongjun Tian1
1

2

Japan Sea National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 5939-22, Suido-cho 1, Niigata, 951-8121, Japan
E-mail: kidokoro@fra.affrc.go.jp
Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 116 Katsurakoi, Kushiro, 085-0802, Japan

The impact of climatic regime shift (CRS) on the stock size and life history traits of Japanese common squid(Todarodes pacificus) was examined, and differences between the Kuroshio-Oyashio currents region and the Sea
of Japan were compared. Japanese common squid is distributed in the northwest Pacific, including the Sea
of Japan, and is the most important cephalopod species in Japanese and South Korean fisheries. Total annual
landings by the Japanese and South Korean fisheries were about 500,000 t during the 1950s and 1960s, but
decreased to 200,000 t during the 1970s and 1980s. Landings have rebounded to about 500,000 t in the 1990s.
Generally, it is considered that CRS occurred around 1976-1977 (76/77CRS) and 1988-89 (88/89CRS), and SSTs
showed negative anomalies during 1977-1988 and have shown positive anomalies since 1989 in the Northwest
Pacific. The life history traits of Japanese common squid changed, coinciding with the 88/89CRS, and the stock
size increased in both the Kuroshio-Oyashio currents region and the Sea of Japan. However, the stock size ofJapanese common squid in the Sea of Japan decreased with a change in life history traits, coinciding with the
76/77CRS, while the stock size in the Kuroshio-Oyashio currents region decreased in the early 1970s. Thisdifference suggests variability in the response of CRSs to the life history traits and stock size of Japanese common
squid between the Kuroshio-Oyashio currents region and the Sea of Japan.

28 April, 13:00 (B2-6397)

Coupling between multi-decadal transients in fish stock abundance and anthropogenic
forcing
Brian J. Rothschild
School for Marine Science and Technology, University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, 706 South Rodney French Blvd., New Bedford, MA,
02744-1221, USA. E-mail: brothschild@umassd.edu

Multi-decadal transients or multi-decadal fluctuations in fish stock abundance can be inferred from readily
available time series. The transients are evident both before and after the onset of industrialized fishing and recent
phenomena that are thought to be climate change related (e.g., warming, NAO, etc.). This observation raises
questions concerning the coupling between the transients and natural environmental fluctuations and anthropogenic
forcing, including fishing and warming. In order to address these questions in the context of ecosystem response,
it is necessary to take into account the relative influence of 1) non-linear population dynamics, 2) fishing, and 3)
short- and long-term environmental forcing (e.g., climate) on fish population dynamics. In essence, this amounts
to studying the coupling among fish stock dynamics, fishing, and the ocean environment. This paper considers
the relative influence of these factors on fish population dynamics. Examples are based upon the increases anddecreases of gadoids in the North Sea, the anchovetta off Peru, northern cod, California sardine, Norwegianspring spawning herring, and Pacific salmon, among others. Common elements among the examples include timestanzas within the transients that are coupled with plankton dynamics and not coupled with fishing.

B2

155

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B2 Posters
B2-6006

Short-period variability of oceanologic conditions in the vicinity of the Pulkovskayaseamount (Part I)
Vladimir B. Darnitskiy1 and Maxim A. Ishchenko2
1
2

Pacific Scientific Fisheries Research Center, P.O. Box 690950, 4 Per., Shevchenko St., Vladivostok, Russia
V.I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute (POI), FEB RAS, 43 Baltiyskaya St., Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray, 690041, Russia
E-mail: maksim@poi.dvo.ru; laitik@mail.ru

The geographical position and hydrology near the Pulkovskaya Seamount were discussed earlier (Darnitskiy,1991). To study the short-period variability of oceanologic processes in the Pulkovskaya Seamount area, thefollowing operations were performed: 1) During a 6-day experiment above the northern summit of the seamount(R/V Mys Babushkin, April 22-27, 1980), water temperature, dissolved oxygen, and nutrients (phosphates andsilicic acid) were taken at 6-h intervals. Netplankton biomass was also collected to a depth of 100 m during theexperiment. 2) A 10-day experiment was carried out at 24-h intervals (i.e., once every 24 h) above the center ofthe northern summit (R/V Ekvator, May 7-16, 1980) in which temperature, salinity and oxygen concentrations
were taken. 3) Examination of a 13 mile (21 km) cross-section was repeated 10 times at 24-h intervals (P/VCharles Darwin, December 1986). In February-March 1987, examination of the cross-section was repeated three
more times at steps of 3 and 4 days over 50 miles (80 km) across the northern top of the Pulkovskaya Seamount.
At daily stations, observations were carried out to a depth of 500 m from the summit and over a 1500 m crosssection. Measurements of temperature, salinity, oxygen concentrations, phosphates, silicic acid, and plankton
biomass were made to 600 m depth.
During the 6-day observation, the atmospheric pressure varied widely at amplitude of 28 mb (from 989-1017mb).
The wind field above the Pulkovskaya seamount was not influenced by the atmospheric pressure, but the airtemperature was observed to fall considerably with the decrease in atmospheric pressure. Fluctuations in themesoplankton biomass occurred mainly on a 24-h cycle. The biomass reached its maximum, 128 mg/cm3, at 10p.m. local time on April 22 when the temperature of the surface water (11.7°C), oxygen concentrations (6 ml/l) andbiogenic elements (22 mkgP/l and 115 mkg Si/l) were at their highest. At other periods, maximum mesoplankton
biomass was also recorded after dark (not more than 105 mg/cm3, while in the day time it was reduced to 30-50
mg/cm3. Mesoplankton biomass had average fluctuations from 70 to 100 mg/cm3.

B2-6007

Short-period variability of oceanologic conditions in the vicinity of the Pulkovskayaseamount (Part II)
Vladimir B. Darnitskiy1 and Maxim A. Ishchenko2
1
2

Pacific Scientific Fisheries Research Center, P.O. Box 690950, 4 Per., Shevchenko St., Vladivostok, Russia
V.I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute (POI), FEB RAS, 43 Baltiyskaya St., Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray, 690041, Russia
E-mail: maksim@poi.dvo.ru; laitik@mail.ru

Calculation of geostrophic current velocities in a cross-sectional plane has allowed us to understand the evolutionof the vortical field on the inter-daily and synoptic time scales above the Pulkovskaya Seamount and in its vicinity.
During the first 10 days of the observations, the currents changed their directions four times at a periodicity of 1 to
3 days. The flow underwent a partial deformation every 24 h with the appearance (and disappearance) of several
reverse streams, and subsequent alterations in horizontal and vertical flow structures. The geostrophic current
velocities varied from several to 50-60 cm/sec, exhibiting from one to three maximum velocities in the case ofdiversely directed streams.
In February-March 1987, the cross-sections were repeated three more times in stages of 3 and 4 days in which an
overall change in direction occurred during the first 3 days (the currents then had four diversely directed flows in
the plane of the cross-section), with maximum velocities in both stages being quite high, 40 to 50 cm/sec. Then

156

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries(in another 4 days) the velocity abruptly slowed to 5-10 cm/sec, while the principal direction and structure of theflows remained unchanged. Apparently these changes were caused by the evolution of the vortical systems in thevicinity of the seamount, as was also observed in other regions (Darnitskiy, Zigelman, 1986).
The evolution of some other oceanological characteristics was also observed. In December 1986, the variationsin temperature were mainly negligible over a 1500 m water column, within hundredths to tenths of a degree,
although certain isotherms under the influence of internal waves underwent inter-daily vertical fluctuations of 80
to 120 m in amplitude in a 300 to 500 m thick layer. In the surface and subsurface layers, salinity variability was
also negligible, but in intermediate horizons the layer of salinity minimum underwent vertical shifts within first
dozens and first hundreds of meters, forming, at regular intervals, low salinity water lenses that grouped together
at the seamount top. Judging from the vertical displacements of low salinity water nuclei, the water masses onintermediate horizons shifted vertically within 200 to 400 m, while the minimum salinity layer either totally
covered the seamount top when the upwellings rose to the 400 m horizon, or was observed in the shape of lenses
localized near the slopes at depths of 600 to 1200 m, when the waters descended.

B2-6072

Modelling anchovy population in the Humboldt upwelling system
Olga Hernandez1, Patrick Lehodey1, Inna Senina1, Arnaud Bertrand2,3, Ramiro Castillo3, Vincent Echevin4 andPhilippe Gaspar1
1

2
3
4

MEMMS (Marine Ecosystems Modelling and Monitoring by Satellites), CLS, Satellite Oceanography Division, 8-10 rue Hermes,
Ramonville, 31520, France. E-mail: ohernandez@cls.fr
IRD, CRH, Avenue Jean Monnet, BP 171, 34203 Sète Cedex, FranceInstituto del Mar del Perú, Esquina Gamarra y Gral. Valle s/n, Apartado 22, Callao, Lima, Peru
IRD, LOCEAN, Université Pierre et Marie Curie, Boite, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris, Cedex 05, France

The Humboldt Current system (HCS) off Peru and Chile is one of the most productive coastal upwelling systems
in the world and the most productive system in terms of fish biomass (10% of the world fish catches). This system
is submitted to high climatic stresses at different times scales, and is directly affected by “El Niño” and “La Niña”
events. Anchovy and sardine have a relatively short life span and are fast growth species well adapted to thisvariability. They dominate the coastal HCS. Anchovy and sardine abundance were assumed to alternate in time
on a decadal timescale. However, recent paleo-ecological studies suggest that this is not the case. Indeed, thesestudies show that the respective abundance of anchovy and sardine depends on different ocean-climatic factors.
Here we use an end-to-end model that integrates spatio-temporal and multi-population dynamics to test forpossible mechanisms leading to changes in anchovy or sardine patterns of abundance. The model used is a spatial
Eulerian ecosystem and population dynamics model (SEAPODYM) that has been developed to investigate thepopulation dynamics of large pelagic fish (e.g. tuna) in relation to their bio-physical environment [Lehodey et al.,2008]. We adapted the SEAPODYM model to small pelagic species and to a regional domain using the ROMSPISCES physical–biogeochemical model as an input. In particular, thanks to an adaptation of the model, which
was initially developed to use fishing data [Senina et al., 2008], we incorporated information on fish abundanceand distribution from acoustic data. Preliminary results of the model will be shown. On a medium term, thismodel aims at predicting future trends based on IPCC climatic change scenarios.

B2-6088

Change in character of winter cyclonic activity over the Asian-Pacific region in 1996-2009
and its influence on a thermal regime of the Far East Seas
Svetlana Yu. Glebova
Pacific Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (TINRO-Center), 4 Shevchenko Alley, Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray, 690950,
Russia. E-mail: glebova@tinro.ru

To analyze the characteristics of winter cyclonic activity in the Asian-Pacific region, seasonal charts of frequency
and intensity of surface cyclones during 1996-2009 have been constructed. To define cyclonic frequency, whole
region (there is a view the Asian-Pacific region) was broken into 2.5x2.5° squares and the total number of cyclones,
passing through each square in January-March, was counted. To estimate the intensity, the Kunitsyn index of

B2

157

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
cyclonicity was calculated as a square of the number of closed isobars outlining each cyclone. This index is
proportional to the kinetic energy of each cyclone. Therefore, with its help it is possible to allocate energy active
zones (EAZ). It is established that in 1996-2001 cyclones were more often displaced on meridional trajectories,
and the area of the cyclones’ maximum intensity (EAZ) was situated over the Bering Sea. In 2002-2009 zonal
trajectories prevailed, and the EAZ was displaced towards the ocean and has come closer to the Okhotsk Sea. It
is noted that with strengthening of the EAZ in winter: 1) In the Bering Sea, ice concentration in March increased
and the water temperature decreased in spring; 2) in the Japan and Okhotsk seas and northern Pacific, the surface
temperature rose, mainly in summer and autumn, but ice concentration decreased in March in the Okhotsk Sea.
On the whole, with intensification of cyclonic activity, the thermal regime in the Japan and Okhotsk seas becomes
warmer, and in the Bering Sea is colder.

B2-6132

Climate change and prospects of fisheries in the Barents Sea and adjacent Arctic seas
Boris Prischepa, Oleg Titov and Yuri Lepesevich
Knipovitch Polar Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography (PINRO), 6 Knipovich St., Murmansk, 183038, Russia
E-mail: inter@pinro.ru

The last decade was, on the whole, characterized by steadily increasing air temperature over the Barents Sea
and adjacent seas. Similar processes were observed in the hydrosphere. The global warming in the “oceanatmosphere” system led to shrinking of the area covered with ice. Climate changes are already showing theireffect on the biological resources of the Barents Sea and adjacent areas. Most evident changes are shown in thegeographical distribution of marine species targeted by the fisheries and in the occurrence of new fish species
traditionally living in warmer Atlantic waters. As a result of changing cycles of climatic processes in the last
decade at the background of climate warming, the linkage between the Arctic and Atlantic oceanic systems
became weaker, and the frontal zones in the Barents Sea became correspondingly less pronounced. In the light of
this, it is suggested that climate warming could have a negative impact on the abundance of important commercial
species such as cod and capelin, the habitats of which are closely related to the frontal zones. So, there is a need tomove on from theory to practical aspects in studies of climate change implications. The program of investigationsof fisheries resources in the Kara Sea was one of the steps to study the effects of global warming on the marine
biological resources. This paper presents results from these studies.

B2-6137

Response of krill to climate change in the California current: Temporal and spatial
variations in population “hotspots”
Jennifer Menkel1 and William T. Peterson2
1

2

Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Hatfield Marine Science Center, 2030 S. Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR,
97365, USA. E-mail: jennifer.menkel@oregonstate.edu
Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, 2030 S. Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR, 97365, USA

Using data from 42 oceanographic cruises spanning 10 years, we have identified regions along the Pacificcoast of Oregon, USA that serve as population centers or geographical “hot spots” in euphausiid abundance for
Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera. We hypothesize that these hot spots occur due to topography
and circulation patterns that tend to concentrate and retain euphausiids in these areas. These retention zones also
exhibit consistently strong upwelling and are less prone to perturbations and seasonal variation than other areasof the coastline. We will look at the climatic influences that help to generate strong recruitment years as well as
influences that create weak cohorts. Euphausia pacifica has consistently strong years in most climatic conditions,being a more plastic and resilient species, whereas Thysanoessa spinifera has a stronger climatic response having
better recruitment in cool ocean years of 2000 and 2002 and almost complete collapse in the warm ocean yearsof 1998 and 2005. We will explore the seasonal differences in the location of the population centers as well asinter-annual differences in biomass relative to ocean conditions.

158

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B2-6163

Spatial dynamics of small pelagic fish in the California Current system on the regime
time-scale: Parallel processes in other species-ecosystems
Rubén Rodríguez-Sánchez, Héctor Villalobos and Sofía Ortega-García
Centro Interdisciplinario de Ciencias Marinas (CICIMAR-I.P.N.), Apartado Postal 592, La Paz, B.C.S., C.P. 23090, México
E-mail: rrodrig@ipn.mx

Some climate models predict that over the next decade natural climate variability may counteract the underlying
anthropogenic warming trend in some ocean regions and may even cool slightly during this period. Possible
scenarios of fluctuating climate change are distributional and composition changes of pelagic species. A previous
large-scale, long-term analysis of the California Current system (CCS) suggests that climatic regime shifts in thenortheast Pacific appear to have forced a changing population size associated with major geographical variationsin the position of the center of distribution and bulk of the biomass of Pacific sardine (Sardinops caeruleus).
This finding allows an explanation of i) the disappearance of the sardine population about 60 years ago from thenorthern part of the CCS, and also its return after the 1980s, and ii) the inverse relation of sardine and northernanchovy (Engraulis mordax) abundance. This differs from theories suggesting that environmental regime shifts
lead to progressive population-level changes within assumed geostationary stocks. The question arising is if thisnatural pattern of variation is only recorded in the Pacific sardine. In this work 1) the large-scale, long-term (19311997) variability of tropical species in the CCS is included in the sardine-anchovy analysis, and 2) examples areshown for other pelagic and benthic species and communities from other ecosystems, where changes of abundance
are also associated with changes in the center of distribution. We discuss the importance and implications of thisspatial process in contrast to simple latitudinal extension shifts into the management of fisheries.

B2-6186

Impacts of mesoscale variations of water masses on larval survival processes of pelagic
fishes around the Kuroshio based on an eddy resolving ocean ecosystem model
Kosei Komatsu1,2, Arisa Yamawaki2, Daisuke Ambe3, Takahiko Kameda3, Takashi Setou3 and Manabu Shimizu3
1

2
3

Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
E-mail: kosei@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-8648, JapanThe Kuroshio, one of the strongest western boundary currents, is well known to severely fluctuate, interactingwith energetic mesoscale eddies, and to play essentially important roles on characterizing marine ecosystems
in the western North Pacific. Main spawning grounds of many commercially important pelagic fishes around
Japan are formed around the frontal region of the Kuroshio, where eggs and larvae are transported along theKuroshio through survival processes into their nursery grounds. Climate change seems to have an impact on themodification of water properties of the spawning and nursery grounds. However, its impact on the larval survival
processes is unknown because of insufficient accumulation of observation data in the Kuroshio frontal region
which has plenty of mesoscale eddies. To clarify the impacts of mesoscale variations of water masses on larval
survival processes around the Kuroshio, we focus on Japanese jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus), spawned
mainly in the southern East China Sea and Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus), spawned mainly in thenearshore region of Japan, and conducted particle transport experiments under realistic forcing in 1993-2006,
using an eddy-resolving ocean ecosystem model composed of a lower trophic-level ecosystem model based on
NEMURO and an OGCM assimilating satellite SSH/SST based on the adjoint ocean primitive equation model,
C-HOPE developed by the Max-Planck-Institute. The numerical experiments indicated that the temperature andthe zooplankton concentration, which pseudo-larvae experienced on their way from the spawning grounds to thenursery ones, change significantly year after year, affected by the fluctuation of the Kuroshio flow-path and thefrontal eddies.

B2

159

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B2-6198

Shifting species assemblages within the Northeast US Large Marine Ecosystem
Sean Lucey and Janet A. Nye
Ecosystem Assessment Program, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries, 166 Water St., Woods Hole, MA, 02543,
USA. E-mail: Sean.Lucey@NOAA.gov

The Northeast US Large Marine Ecosystem (NEUS LME) has experienced a variety of pressures due to fishingand climate. Differences in the reactions of marine species to these changes stemming from differential behavior
and life histories have led to a variety of adaptations, which in turn alters the species assemblage of an area. The
NEUS LME has traditionally been assessed using four eco-regions: Mid-Atlantic Bight, southern New England,
Georges Bank, and Gulf of Maine. Although each eco-region has a distinct species assemblage, we found thatthose assemblages are shifting over time. The shift appears to be towards species that prefer warmer water, which
creates an assemblage that more resembles the historic assemblage found in the adjacent eco-region to the south.
We found that these shifts are occurring by a combination of fishing pressure and climate. Therefore, current
reductions in fishing pressures may not be adequate to return the system to a more historic species assemblage.

B2-6248

Reaction of northern hemisphere ecosystems to the climate events in the late 1980s:
A comparison of regime shifts and teleconnection patterns
Jürgen Alheit and 12 co-authors
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Seestr. 15, Warnemünde, 18119, Germany. E-mail: juergen.alheit@io-warnemuende.de

Understanding the role of natural variability, occurring over a variety of time scales, is essential if we are toeffectively manage marine ecosystems and their living resources in the wake of predicted global change. Evidence
has been accumulated that climate variability can cause ecosystem regime shifts. These shifts can re-organize
marine communities and trophodynamic relationships and induce changes in the mix of dominating species.
Examples of regime shifts in the Atlantic (Baltic Sea, North Sea, NW Mediterranean) and Pacific (Japan/East
Sea, Oyashio/Kuroshio System) will be described, based on long-term time series of atmospheric, hydrographic
and ecosystem variables. The focus will be on the pelagic realm including phytoplankton, zooplankton andsmall pelagic fishes such as sardines, anchovies, sprat and saury. Often, aquatic ecosystems being separated bythousands of kilometers from each other react synchronously to the same climate signal, as did NE European
shelf seas and lakes in association with the increase of the North Atlantic Oscillation index and NW Pacificecosystems in association with the weakening of the East Asian winter monsoon, events all of which happened in
the late 1980s. This Atlantic-Pacific teleconnection pattern seems to be mediated by the dynamics of the Arctic
Oscillation and the Siberian High. The potential for forecasting these events will be discussed.

B2-6271 (Cancelled)

Distribution variation of phytoplankton effect by typhoon winds in the South China Sea
Chun Li Liu1 and Dan Ling Tang2
1
2

Marine College, Shandong University at Weihai, 180 West Wenhua Rd., Weihai, 264209, PR China. E-mail: chunliliu@sdu.edu.cn
Center of Remote Sensing on Marine Ecology/Environment, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences,
PR China

The present study analyzed the variation of phytoplankton/Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) distribution in the South China
Sea (SCS) for the period from August 2 to 15, 2009 using SeaWiFS-derived Chl-a data and other oceanographic
data. The results show Chl-a concentration changed in 2 areas after the typhoon. A bloom along the typhoon track
exhibited a Chl-a peak 5 d after the typhoon’s passage. It was preceded by sea-surface cooling, mainly on the rightside of the typhoon track, and sea-level decrease along the typhoon track 1 d post-typhoon. The bloom was due
to nutrient increase from mixing and upwelling. By this mechanism, the typhoon winds can effect production ofmarine phytoplankton. The density of algal species increased after the typhoon and algal species were different
before and after the typhoon winds.

160

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B2-6320

Environmental temperature impacts on the early survival process of larval Japanese sardine
Daisuke Ambe1, Kosei Komatsu2, Manabu Shimizu1, Akira Okuno3 and Akinori Takasuka1
1

2
3

National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-8648, Japan
E-mail: ambe@affrc.go.jp
Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Nakano, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
Japan Sea National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, Niigata, Niigata, 951-8121, Japan

Environmental transport and temperature impacts on the survival process of egg and early larval Japanese sardine
Sardinops melanostictus in their low biomass period during 1993–2007were examined using in situ and satellite
observational data. The first mode of spawning ground was located at the nearshore side of the Kuroshio axis
south of Shikoku, and was at its peak in February. A 30-day virtual tracer experiment was carried out, in which
the initial location of the tracers was set to the south of Shikoku. Satellite altimeter and drifter data showed thatthe tracers were passively transported by the sea-surface velocity field generally downstream of the Kuroshio
soon after they were released. A few tracers crossed over the Kuroshio to offshore side. The average experiential
temperatures of the tracers tended to decrease gradually with time. Both daily average and standard deviationof the experiential temperatures in February and March were continuously within the temperature range of theirhabitat. The yearly variation of the annual survival rate based on this temperature range showed rough agreementwith the Recruitment Per Spawn (RPS) of Japanese sardine. These results suggest the high contribution of
winter SST south of Shikoku to recruitment of Japanese sardine during its low biomass period. Based on the
disagreement between this survival experiment and RPS, it was found that the spawning ground mode shifts
eastward, associated with the interannual elevation of sea-surface temperature.

B2-6373

Evidence of climate change in the northern California Current ecosystem and its impact
on the distribution and community composition of zooplankton
Jay O. Peterson1 and William T. Peterson2
1

2

Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR, 97365, USA
E-mail: jay.peterson@oregonstate.edu
NOAA-Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR, 97365, USA

Uncertainty exists in predictions of how climate change will impact aquatic ecosystems. For the California
Current (USA), an eastern boundary current driven by upwelling, not only is a warming climate predicted tolead to increased water temperatures and stronger stratification, but also to more intense periods of upwelling.
Physical and biological data from the northern California Current (NCC) ecosystem have been collected at various
frequencies since 1969, with the most intense and consistent sampling occurring from 1996 - present. This longterm dataset encompasses phase changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation(NPGO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), providing information on how the NCC ecosystem may
respond to climate shifts leading to warmer or colder ocean conditions and changes in upwelling strength andduration. We will address the long-term trends in physical variables (temperature, stratification, timing and strengthof upwelling) and the associated changes in the abundance and species composition of meso-zooplankton. Overthe last 40 years we have found several fundamental changes in the NCC, including an increase in the numberof copepod species routinely found along the coast (0.11 species per year), an intensification of oxygen-depleted
bottom waters on the shelf, and an increase in the depth from which water upwells. Variability within these trends
correlates to the phase of the PDO and provides an indication of how the ecosystem responds to both warmer andcolder ocean conditions.

B2

161

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

B2-6392

Long-term variations in the catch of sergestid shrimp in Suruga Bay induced by variationsin the Kuroshio path and climate regime shifts
Takashige Sugimoto and Masato Niki
School of Marine Science and Technology, Tokai University, 3-20-1 Orido, Shimizu-ku, Shizuoka, Shizuoka Prefecture, 424-8610, Japan
E-mail: sugimoto@scc.u-tokai.ac.jp

Fisheries biologists think that the catch of sergestid shrimp becomes worse when associated with low watertemperature or decreased thickness of the layer compared with the preferred water temperature for spawning andgrowth of larvae.
On the other hand, fishermen in Suruga Bay, in the southeastern coast of Japan, say that the large meandering
path of the Kuroshio induces a remarkable drop in the catch, but that increased river discharge brings a better
catch. To clarify this gap, we analyzed the historical data on the catch of sergestid shrimp, including their feeding
environment, with ocean-climate conditions.
Results show that the relevant mechanisms of the inter-annual to inter-decadal scale variations in the catch ofsergestid shrimp depend on a time scale as follows. (1) ENSO and the climate regime shift affect the variations
in water temperature in summer and early autumn (spawning season) on a period of several years and several
decades, respectively. Several years to decadal-scale variations in the water exchange during the spawning season
happen in association with the large meandering path of the Kuroshio, which induces a remarkable decrease inrecruitment. Variations in the mean SST around Japan in the last century show positive correlations with the catchof sergestid shrimp, as well as that of anchovy, on a time scale of 50-60 years.

162

C1

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

C1 Oral Presentations
28 April, 9:05 (C1-6210), Invited

Adapting marine social-ecological systems to a world of change: Lessons from the
GLOBEC experience
R. Ian Perry1, Manuel Barange2, Francisco E. Werner3, Eileen Hofmann4 and Rosemary Ommer5
1

2
3
4
5

Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd., Nanaimo, BC, V9T 6N7, Canada
E-mail: Ian.Perry@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
GLOBEC International Project Office, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, PL1 3DH, UK
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd., New Brunswick, NJ, 08901-8525, USA
Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, Crittenton Hall, Norfolk, VA, 23529, USA
Institute for Coastal and Oceans Research (ICOR), University of Victoria, P.O. Box 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada

Marine social-ecological systems, including biophysical and human components of marine ecosystems, areexpected to be significantly impacted by the combined effects of globalisation, direct human activities, and climatechange. Anticipated changes include changes in: distributions of marine species; phenology; recruitment successand abundances of marine populations; and disruptions and changes in the species composition of traditional
marine communities. Each of these have impacts for marine-dependent human communities. What are thepolicy and management needs and implications for such coupled marine social-ecological systems in a world ofincreasing uncertainty and change? We present these issues in the context of findings and lessons learned duringthe >10 years of the international Global Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics (GLOBEC) program. We review key
concepts and changes in understanding of how marine ecosystems work and respond to environmental and humanforcing that evolved during the GLOBEC period. These include increased understanding of ecosystem structureand function, physical and anthropogenic forcings, and of how physical, biological, and human components
interact with each other and with changing marine environments and ecosystems. We focus on policy needs
and management implications of these findings, taking into account issues relating to policy development suchas space and time scales, differences in national approaches, and dealing with (and making decisions under)
uncertainty. The overarching issue is to understand the processes affecting, and to develop polices and to takedecisions that strengthen, the capacities of coupled marine social-ecological systems to adapt to foreseen andunforeseen future global changes.

28 April, 9:30 (C1-6310)

Postlarvae fishing, biodiversity and livelihoods under climate change: A case study onsouthwest coastal community in Bangladesh
Sujan Saha
Independent Researcher, C/O M. Chowdhury, Tings Vägen 21 TR 2, 145-56 Norsberg, Stockholm, 145-56, Sweden
E-mail: sujan407@yahoo.com

Prawn postlarvae fishing in coastal southwest of Bangladesh provides not only the livelihoods for many
marginalized women and children, but it is one of the major exports earning for Bangladesh. However thosecome at a cost for the environment and climate change is bringing new challenges on the sector and on marine
ecosystems in Bangladesh.
This paper teases out how climate change impacts on prawn postlarvae and on the fishing community dependent
on postlarvae in southwest of Bangladesh. The paper finds climate change related causes, like habitat destruction
and salinity intrusion, have drastic effects on prawn postlarvae. The negative consequences of climate change likestorm surges make the fishing community destitute and force them to abandon their sole livelihood option. The
paper argues for a community-based system to increase the resilience of the livelihoods of marginalized people andto save the environment in the era of climate change. A community-based governance and management structure
could allow for fishing activity without jeopardizing the marine ecosystem, while government’s initiatives such as
spatial and seasonal ban on fishing, and afforestation of mangrove tress would help marine ecosystems in copingwith negative consequences of climate change.

163

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 9:45 (C1-6340)

Modeling the spatial distribution of coastal fisheries of the Baltic Sea using Geographic
Information Systems
Eva Papaioannou1, Athanasios Vafeidis1, Jörn O. Schmidt2 and Martin F. Quaas2
1

2

Sea-Level Rise and Coasts at Risk Research Group, Cluster of Excellence ‘The Future Ocean’, Institute of Geography, Christian
Albrechts University of Kiel, Ludewig-Meyn Str. 14, 24098, Kiel, Germany. E-mail: papaioannou@geographie.uni-kiel.deFisheries and Overfishing Research Group, Cluster of Excellence ‘The Future Ocean’, Department of Economics, Christian Albrechts
University of Kiel, Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1, 24118, Kiel, Germany

The safeguarding and sustainability of coastal fisheries constitute central priorities in the process of current andongoing institutional and legislative fisheries’ reforms, on both an international and a regional level. In the Baltic
Sea, coastal fish communities have long been recognized as important components of the marine ecosystem, while
the fishery is an important income and employment generating sector, particularly for fishery-dependent coastal
communities.
This study aims to assess how the spatial distribution of the Baltic coastal fishing fleet and its economic benefits
are affected by ecological and economic factors (such as habitat characteristics and fishing technology), using
Geographic Information Systems. Assuming that the coastal fleet can be defined in terms of gear type, vessel size,
and relative distance travelled to fishing grounds, a time-series database of coastal vessels is created, allocating
vessels per country and port. Furthermore, catch data on important coastal fish are analysed at the level of ICES
Subdivisions (i.e. Subdivisions 22 to 32 and IIIa); additional data are used, where available, for refining theresolution of catch data (logbook data, results from coastal fish surveys). Then, the data are employed for analyzing
the spatial distribution of coastal vessels and their catch. Finally, preliminary results generated within the context
of commonly employed climate-change scenarios, enable a first-order assessment of the future distribution of thecoastal fleet and its catches.

28 April, 10:00 (C1-6174)

Satellite observation on the cold water intrusion related to the exceptional fishery disaster
during the ENSO events in the Taiwan Strait
Ming-An Lee1,2, Kuo-Wei Lan1, Kuo-Ten Lee1 and Yi Chang1
1

2

Department of Environmental Biology and Fisheries Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Pei-Ning Rd., Keelung, 20224,
Taiwan, ROC. E-mail: malee@mail.ntou.edu.tw
Remote Sensing Laboratory of Taiwan Ocean Research Institute, Keelung, 20224, Taiwan, ROC

From the long-term (1995-2008) observation of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) fields of satellitederived data, it is interesting that an exceptional cold water intrusion into the southern Taiwan Strait happened in
February 2008. It is found that in January to February of 2008, the SST decreased from 20.2 to 12.6ºC (a drop
about 7.6ºC) which resulted in great damage to marine ecology and fisheries economics. This rare low SST event
caused the death of more than 130 tons of resident, coral reef and cage aquaculture fishes. Comparing the catch offish in 2008 with the average of 1998-2007, we found a 50-80% decrease in the catch of pole and line boats, gillnets and longline fisheries but a 193% increase in the catch of the set net fishery.
It is found that SST was cooler in the La Niña winters (1996, 2000, 2008) than in the El Niño winters (1998, 2003,
2007). It is suggested that in the winter of 2008, the strong and continuous northeasterly wind caused by La Niña
event probably drove the cold current more southward to penetrate into the southern Taiwan Strait. Therefore, theexceptional intrusion of cold water may decrease the feeding activity of warm water and resident species of fishes,
which were killed by low body temperature and loss of energy as a result of reducing nutrient. The intrusion ofcold current may also have brought some schools of cold water and migratory species from East China Sea tosouthern Taiwan Strait.

164

C1

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 10:15 (C1-6201)

High latitude climate variability and its implications for fish resources as revealed byfossil otoliths of cod (Gadus morhua)
Audrey J. Geffen1, Arild Folkvord1, Hans Høie1,4, Anne Karin Hufthammer2, Carin Andersson3, Kjell Nedreaas4and Ulysses S. Ninemann3,5 (presented by Mei-Yu Chang)
1
2
3
4
5

Department of Biology, P.O. Box 7803, University of Bergen, N-5020, Norway. E-mail: Audrey.Geffen@bio.uib.no
Natural History Collections, University of Bergen, Muséplass 3, Bergen, N-5020, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 55, Bergen, N-5007, Norway
Institute for Marine Research, Bergen, P.O. Box 1870, Nordnes Bergen, N-5817, Norway
Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Allégaten 41, Bergen, N-5007, Norway

While it is important to understand climate changes which have occurred over the geological scale, it is thosechanges over historical time that have most immediate impact on us and our relationship to fisheries resources.
By understanding the pattern of natural climate change over the course of human history we may be better able toassess the impact of future change, man-made or natural. Human settlements in northern Norway have relied on
the availability of cod for over a thousand years. Present day population structure reveals the occurrence of local
resident cod populations as well as the migratory Northeast Arctic cod which probably represented an importantseasonal resource. We analyzed cod otoliths from archaeological sites in northern Norway to reconstruct thetemperature regime experienced by fish and determined age, growth, and stock identity. These otoliths werecompared with modern samples collected during routine fish assessment surveys during the last decade. Seasonaltemperature cycles reconstructed from oxygen isotope (delta18O) transects revealed seasonal variations consistent
with the expected annual temperature range. Reconstructions of the size, age and growth characteristics ofindividual fish based on otolith growth increments were within the range seen in modern cod. The majority ofthe excavated otoliths were characteristic of Northeast Arctic cod. This implies that the human settlements havea long history, even prior to the industrial fishery, of taking advantage of seasonally available fish resources inNorthern Norway. Changes in the distribution of fish populations/stocks can leave their mark in the archaeologicalremains of coastal settlements.

28 April, 10:30 (C1-6233)

Reconstruction of bottom phytocenoses on the coast of Primorye caused by climate change
Tatiana Krupnova, Yury I. Zuenko, Vladimir Matveev, Irina Tsypysheva and Vladimir Pavlyuchkov
Pacific Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (TINRO-Centre), 4 Shevchenko Alley, Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray, 690950,
Russia. E-mail: krupnova@tinro.ru

The kelp Laminaria japonica dominates in phytocenoses on the Russian coast of the Japan Sea, and it occupied
not long ago almost all available substrata from the shoreline to the depth 20 m. However, the stock of thisalga decreased more than tenfold in the late 1990s and its distribution shrank simultaneously. These changes
undermined the catch of this species and the forage base of other valuable commercial species such as sea urchin.
As a result, coastal enterprises dependent on kelp catching and processing have material losses and partiallycollapsed. The relationship of laminaria reproduction with the intensity of the cold Primorye Current is shown.
Recently the reproduction has generally been unsuccessful under conditions of warm surface water of subtropic
origin. This is advected to the coastal zone in autumn and causes the formation of weak generations of laminaria
and alteration of phytocenoses. Highly-productive fields of laminaria are replaced by low-productive coralline
algae. The mechanism of this flow formation is discussed. A regression model of the laminaria stock formationthat depends on the duration of the period with optimal water temperature has been developed to forecast the stockwith a lead time of 2 years. Recommendations for developing sustainable coastal economics on the base of marine
farms for joint cultivation of laminaria and sea urchins in natural environments are discussed.

165

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 11:05 (C1-6400), Invited

Evolution in an instant: Adaptation and resilience to climate change in fisheries
Kevern L. Cochrane, Tarub Bahri, Cassandra de Young and Doris Soto
FAO MedSudMed Project, Via Luigi Vaccara, 61, Mazara del Vallo, TP, 91026, Italy. E-mail: Tarub.Bahri@fao.org

The 4th Assessment Report of the IPCC provides best estimates of an increase in temperature of between 1.8 and
4.0°C in the 100 years up to 2090/2099 with sea level rises of between 18 and 59 centimetres. Change anywhere
within these ranges will have profound impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems and on those dependent onthem for their livelihoods. This will include the approximately 500 million directly and indirectly dependent on
fisheries, the vast majority of whom are poor.
Even in the absence of climate change, the future of the fisheries sector in many regions has been at risk for several
decades from over-fishing, pollution, coastal zone development and other anthropogenic effects. In response tothese threats a number of key global instruments have been developed and are being implemented, including
for example the UN Law of the Sea and the FAO Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries. This paper willsummarise the key ecological and social threats, and some opportunities, from climate change and describe therelevance of the existing instruments to building resilience and facilitating adaptability amongst coastal fisherycommunities. It will also discuss the implications of the additional layer of uncertainty introduced into managing
for sustainability by climate change. With reference to resilience theory, this will include consideration of theoptions for maintaining the functionality of coastal fishery social-ecological systems in the face of the substantial
perturbations which are forecast for some regions under climate change either as slow or fast onset changes.

28 April, 11:30 (C1-6124)

Socio-economic impacts of climate change on coastal communities: The case of the northcoast of Java small-pelagic fisheries
Akhmad Fauzi1, Subandono Diposaptono2 and Suzy Anna3
1

2
3

Department of Resource and Environmental Economics, Bogor Agricultural University. Jl. Kamper, Wing 5, Level 5, Kampus IPB
Darmaga, Bogor, 16680, Indonesia. E-mail: fauziakhmad@gmail.com
Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Affair, Republic of Indonesia, Jl. Medan Merdeka Timur, Jakarta, Indonesia
Faculty of Fisheries, Padjadjaran University, Kampus UNPAD, Jatinangor, Bandung. Indonesia

Climate change, along with other anthropogenic factors, has been perceived to be playing role in the decliningof fisheries production in the north coast of Java. These factors not only generate uncertainties in the livelihoodof small-scale fishers but also affect coastal community severely both socially and economically. The catch ofsmall pelagic has been reported to be declining during the last ten years. Income and livelihood of small-scale
fisheries have also been severely affected leading to poverty in coastal communities. This paper discusses how
climate change has altered fisheries activities of artisanal fishers and how coastal communities respond to such
uncertainties using livelihood strategies. These include temporal and seasonal migration, income diversification,
developing work sharing, investing in social capital, and exploring non-fisheries resources. This paper also
explores the impact of these livelihood strategies on the resources and communities.

28 April, 11:45 (C1-6351)

Impacts of changing weather patterns on the efficiency of South Africa’s purse-seine fishery
Janet C. Coetzee, Kobus Agenbag, Carl van der Lingen, Larry Hutchings, Jan van der Westhuizen, Awie
Badenhorst and Mike Copeland
Marine and Coastal Management, Department of Environmental Affairs, Private Bag X2, Rogge Bay, 8012, South Africa
E-mail: Jcoetzee@deat.gov.za

Climate change is likely to impact the South African pelagic fishing industry in two ways; through alteredfunctioning of the marine ecosystem and changes in local weather patterns. A fishery for anchovy and sardine has
been in operation on the West Coast of South Africa since the 1940s. This fishery has already faced challenges
related to stock fluctuations and geographical shifts in the distribution of target species and responded well

166

C1

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
through altered fishing strategies. Recent changes in local weather patterns and the introduction of environmental
regulations are impacting negatively on the ability of this industry to catch and process their allocated anchovy
quotas and could potentially threaten the viability of the low-profit fishmeal-reduction component of the industry.
In the past four years, this industry has caught only 40% on average of its anchovy TAC mainly because of thesystematic intensification since 2003 of north-westerly winds during the winter fishing season. The anchovy
fishery has been hardest hit because it relies on purse-seine vessels that cannot fish during adverse weather andbecause processing of anchovy into fishmeal increases air pollution and water effluent which are regulated. It
remains unclear whether the recent enhanced winter storms are a consequence of climate change or decadal
variation, but various predicted climate change scenarios suggest that the intensity of winter storms may beenhanced, resulting in stronger winds and rougher seas during the main fishing season. This fishing industry willagain be forced to adapt its strategy to cope with these altered conditions.

28 April, 12:00 (C1-6166)

Detecting decadal changes in marine environmental characteristics and fishery resourcesin Korean waters
Jong Hee Lee1,2, Jae Bong Lee1, Young Min Choi1 and Chang Ik Zhang212National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, Busan, 619-705, R Korea. E-mail: leejb@nfrdi.go.kr
Pukyong National University, Busan, 608-737, R Korea

Changes in temperature and salinity were analyzed using serial station data of NFRDI (National Fisheries Researchand Development Institute) from 1962 to 2007, by dividing Korean waters into eight areas, of which are two in
the Japan/East Sea, three in the Yellow Sea, and three in the East China Sea, namely E1, E2, W1, W2, W3, S1,
S2, and S3, respectively. RSI (regime shift indices) were calculated for the eight areas to examine the patterns ofchange among the areas. All the eight areas showed decadal patterns of change in the years of 1976-77, 1988-89
and 1998-99, which are widely known as years of climatic regime shifts (CRS) in the North Pacific. The changes
in the index for 1988-89 and 1998-99 were stronger than for 1976-77. The changing pattern for 1976-77 was only
shown in the Japan/East Sea at E1 and E2 stations, and the RSI was weak in 1976-77 at S3 which is connectedwith E2. Although changes in RSI were commonly detected in 2006-07 in all Korean waters, the magnitude was
not statistically significant. The 1976-77 CRS was manifested by a replacement in biomass and catch of major
exploited fisheries resources, such as Pacific saury, sardine and filefish in the Japan/East Sea. In addition, fisheryproduction in the waters showed decadal trends with an increase in 1976, a decrease in 1986, and an increase again
since late 1990s. In 1960s and 1990s common squid was dominant, but in 70s and 80s it was replaced by walleye
pollock. Other CRS events also changed the structure and function of the marine ecosystem, and the biomass andproduction of fisheries resources in Korean waters.

28 April, 12:15 (C1-6236)

The potential use of a Gadget model to predict stock responses to climate change incombination with Bayesian networks: The case of the Bay of Biscay anchovy
Eider Andonegi1, Jose Antonio Fernandes2, Iñaki Quincoces1, Xabier Irigoien2, Daniel Howell3 and Gunnar
Stefansson4
1
2
3
4

AZTI-Tecnalia, Txatxarramendi Ugartea z/g, Sukarrieta (Bizkaia), 48935, Spain. E-mail: eandonegi@azti.es
AZTI-Tecnalia, Herrera Kaia – Portu Aldea z/g, 20110 Pasaia (Gipuzkoa), Spain
Institute of Marine Research, P.O. Box 1870, Bergen, N-5817, Norway
Department of Mathematics, University of Iceland and Marine Research Institute, Skúlagata 4, P.O. Box 1390, 121 Reykjavik, Iceland

European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, Linnaeus, 1758) is a short-lived pelagic species that is distributed
along the Atlantic European waters, with the Bay of Biscay being one of the main nuclei of concentration ofindividuals. The Bay of Biscay population has historically been the target species for a very important fishery, notonly for economic reasons but also due to cultural roots of the surrounding countries. Landings have fluctuatedover time, reaching a maximum during the 60’s (around 83000t) and a minimum in 2004 (less than 10000t), justbefore the closure of the fishery that took place in July 2005 due to the collapse of the stock. Being a short-lived
species, the state of the stock is largely determined by incoming recruitment. This recruitment is highly variableand depends on a variety of factors such as the size of the spawning stock and environmental conditions in the area.

167

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
In this study a Gadget like model has been used to analyze the status of the Bay of Biscay anchovy populationand to simulate future scenarios based on estimated recruitment levels. Recruitment has been estimated using
supervised classification techniques, tested by the machine learning community, and considers climatic indicesas potential forecasting factors. Stock-recruitment relationships have not been considered in this work, since they
have been classified as poor predictors of recruitment in previous studies and they are discarded by the supervisedclassification techniques.

28 April, 12:30 (C1-6197)

Shifts in species abundance of sardine fisheries in southern Philippines: Early signs ofvulnerability to climate change?
Asuncion De Guzman1, Cesaria Jimenez1, Angelo Macario2, Juliet Madula1 and Jayrald Santamnina112

Mindanao State University at Naawan, Naawan, Misamis Oriental, 9023, Philippines. E-mail: sony_deguzman@yahoo.com
Dipolog School of Fisheries, Bgy. Olingan, Dipolog City, Philippines

A newly implemented research program called ICE CREAM (Integrated Coastal Enhancement: Coastal Research,
Evaluation and Adaptive Management) funded by the Philippine government is evaluating the impacts of climatechange on coastal ecosystems, fisheries vulnerability, and local adaptive capacity. A component of this program
is looking into the potential effect of climate changes on the production of important fish resources and on the
livelihood of small fishers. The Indian oil sardine Sardinella longiceps forms a large part of the small pelagics
production of nearshore fisheries in many bays of Mindanao in southern Philippines. This sardine is associatedwith high productivity areas such as upwelling zones or highly eutrophic systems driven by nutrient load fromland, a possible proxy to changing climate. One of three major upwelling systems in the Philippines is found off
Dipolog City and Sindangan Bay on the northwestern part of Mindanao Sea. High annual production of sardine
in this area has motivated the rapid growth of the postharvest industry. Recently, however, fishers observed thefailure of once-abundant sardine stocks to enter Sindangan Bay for almost two years. Initial results of the projectshow that sardine production in Sindangan Bay drastically dropped this year, forcing postharvest facilities tosuspend production. In contrast, catches of S. longiceps exhibited a phenomenal rise in Butuan Bay on thenortheastern side of Mindanao Sea. Since overfishing is common in Philippine coastal fisheries, the possible
influence of climate-related factors on sardine production in the two bays is being investigated.

28 April, 12:45 (C1-6304)

Challenge and opportunity of climate change:
communities

Case studies in Vietnamese coastal

Nhung T.H. Nguyen1 and Hien T.H. Than21
2Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, Surrey, TW20 0EX, UK. Email: nguyen.t.h.nhung@gmail.com
Centre for Marine Conservation and Community Development, Hanoi, Vietnam. E-mail: tthien@mcdvietnam.org

Like many other coastal and island countries, climate change is leaving great impacts on Vietnam’s coasts. Vietnam
is one of the five most vulnerable countries to climate change and sea-level rise in Asia, according to a World Bank
assessment (Dasgupta et al., 2007). Overfishing, mangrove degradation, pollution, and extensive urban growth
have accelerated climate change impacts on coastal communities and their livelihoods. Coping strategies aremainly government initiatives from the perspectives of advancing science and policies towards climate change.
However, coastal communities in Vietnam, who have experienced many changes and have developed traditional
knowledge of the natural environment, are rarely considered in studies of climate variability and responses toclimate change. Despite the domination of centralized policies, many fisheries communities in Vietnam haveestablished and exercised their own organizations and regulations to successfully manage coastal resources andto cope with changes in the climatic and political environment. This paper assesses local systems of coastal
resource management and patterns of local responses, such as livelihood adaptation, resilience, migration, andthe establishment of local institutions. The paper documents historical changes in the coastal environment, theimpacts of these on coastal communities, and associated livelihood strategies in these periods using case studies
of coastal wetlands in the Red River Delta of Vietnam. The paper makes recommendations on the capacity andthe involvement of communities and local stakeholders in coastal resource governance towards climate change
adaptation and mitigation.
168

C1

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

C1 Posters
C1-5998

Assessment of adaptation responses of coastal communities in the Philippines to theimpacts of climate change
Maria Rebecca A. Campos
Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture, 10996 Campos Compound, Faculty Village, College,
Laguna, 4031, Philippines. E-mail: cmaribec@yahoo.com

More than half a million small fishers in the Philippines have been availing of loans from Quedancor, the credit
arm of the Department of Agriculture. The financing scheme has been quite successful with repayment rate at
95%. However, the occurrence of natural calamities such as typhoons; as well as pests and diseases has affected
the productivity of fisheries, thus, hindering fishers from paying and renewing their loans. Failure to accesscredit could disable them to continue venturing on fishing activities and could eventually jeopardize the welfareof their entire household. The inability of creditors to pay their loans and meet their obligations also impair, to alarge extent, the financial operation and viability of the lending institutions. This study analyzes the natural risks
and risk management practices of these fishers. It recommends mitigation mechanisms to minimize the impactof natural calamities. Moreover, it suggests a bridge financing scheme that can be an effective and efficient
instrument to enable fishers to carry on their livelihood activities and support their families’ basic needs andslowly recover from their losses.

C1-6040

Status of short-spined sea urchin (Strongylocentrotus intermedius) colonies and kelp
(Laminaria japonica) thicket along southwestern Sakhalin coast
Dmitry A. Galanin, V.A. Sergeenko and A.R. Repnikova
Sakhalin Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (SakhNIRO), 196 Komsomolskaya St., Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693023, Russia
E-mail: dmitry.galanin@yahoo.com

In recent years the status of commercial algae and sea urchins along southwestern Sakhalin coast is not stable.
This is rather visible in traditional fishery areas of Laminaria japonica and Strongylocentrotus intermedius. The
distribution area for Laminaria japonica has reduced that causes decline in total and commercial biomasses. The
mean sizes of short-spine sea urchin become smaller that causes decline in their total and commercial biomasses
as well.
We study dynamics of size characteristics of the sea urchins and Laminaria japonica during a long period andcompare it with environmental conditions. This allows us to reveal significance of some factors in colonies
existence. Thus, for instance, a temperature factor is the most significant for major physiological processes,
including hydrobionts spawning. A definite temperature regime stimulates sea urchins for spawning and
Laminaria for spore-bearing. Such regime affects the hydrobionts growth (acceleration or delay). Surely, noneof the environmental factors functions alone. Their combination always determines a status of hydrobiont stocks.
Accumulation and generalization of such data allow us to predict a status of their resources for future.

169

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

C1-6116Impacts of ENSO and IOD on summer monsoon rainfall and oil sardine fishery along thewest coast of India
K.J. Thara1, R. Sajeev1 and T. Pankajakshan2
1

2

Department of Physical Oceanography, School of Marine Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kochi, Kerala,
682 022, India. E-mail: rsajeev@yahoo.com
Embassy of India, Tokyo, Japan

Indian summer monsoon (June-September) has a large interannual variability over temporal as well as spatial
scales. In recent decades, the number of extreme rainfall events increased a lot and the inverse relationshipbetween ENSO and Indian summer monsoon has broken down. IOD plays a major role and its correlation with
rainfall is high. During the last few decades, the IOD and ENSO have complementarily affected the Indiansummer monsoon rainfall. In this study the relative impacts of the IOD and ENSO events on the summer monsoon
rainfall of west coast of India during the period 1991-2008 have been examined. The spatial distribution of partial
correlations between Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and rainfall indicates that there exists a significant impact of IOD
on rainfall along the southwest coastal regions of India. There was a strong negative correlation with positive
Nino 3.4 Index (El Niño) along entire coastal regions during 2000-2008. But during 1991-1999, a period withstrong and continuous IOD-ENSO events the correlation was positive. This substantiates the impact of IOD on
rainfall. Oil sardine landings showed a significant negative correlation with DMI and also with summer monsoon
rainfall. The summer monsoon rainfall affects the oil sardine fishery of southwest coast of India to a large extent.

C1-6146

Loss of mangrove wetlands and implications for climate change, fisheries and foodsecurity in Lagos coastal lagoons shorelines (West Africa)
Julius I. Agboola
Department of Fisheries, Lagos State University, P.M.B 0001 LASU, Ojo, Lagos, Nigeria. E-mail: jb_agboola@yahoo.com

The future of coastal lagoons shorelines in Africa especially in Lagos, Nigeria and its people is highly related to
the future of its mangrove wetlands. However, global trend indicates that wetlands are degrading at an alarming
rate, to which those in Nigeria (West Africa) are no exception. This appears to be threatened by the expansion of
wetland reclamation for urban housing developments, which have led to wetland loss, tilapia fisheries collapse,
enhanced eutrophication of the lake, loss of food security for the impoverished population, and a measurable
contribution to global warming. This papers analyses trends (past to present) and implications, and argues forbetter management strategies through “strategic partnership” and “integrated management” for sustainable
management of aquatic resources in the face of global environmental change uncertainties. It hoped that this willachieve a better understanding of risks and opportunities of trade-offs in aquatic ecosystem services.

C1-6147

The effect of climate change upon the inshore fisheries of the United Kingdom
Mark Prime, Ralf Bublitz, Bob Houghton and Magnus Johnson
Centre for Environmental and Marine Sciences, University of Hull, Scarborough Campus, Filey Rd., Scarborough, YO11 3AZ, UK
E-mail: m.prime@2008.hull.ac.uk

The UK coast is very diverse in the species fished, the habitats present and the methods used to fish. For over
100 years, 12 independent Sea Fisheries Committees (SFC) of England and Wales have had responsibility fornear-shore and small scale fisheries management within their own districts. This has resulted in each SFC
being specialised towards locally important fisheries. Consequently data has been collected without reference
to neighbouring districts, offshore activities or the wider national picture, mostly for the purposes of fisheries
management in the short term rather than developing a long term ecological understanding. Analysis of SFC data

170

C1

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
will demonstrate the changes in the UK fisheries that are products of climate change processes. Utilising SFC data
we are able to highlight changes in commercial species abundance, distribution and composition. For example,
sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) a species that was previously associated with South Western fisheries only has
seen a marked increase in its range across the UK. Ultimately we hope to develop a intuitive tool that enables
locally collected data to be interrogated for nationally relevant questions, that feeds into our understanding of the
impact climate change is having upon distributions of near-shore species and inshore fishing activity.

C1-6242

Trends of coastal fisheries in Iwate Prefecture, Pacific coast of northern Japan, withrelation to the long-term oceanographic fluctuations
Tomoaki Goto
Iwate Fisheries Technology Center, 3-75-3 Heita, Kamaishi, Iwate, 026-0001, Japan. E-mail: t-gotou@pref.iwate.jp

A large number of various capture fisheries with small-scale fishing boats have been operated in the coastal waters
off Iwate, Pacific coast of northern Japan, where form the Oyashio-Kuroshio mixing zone. In the present study,
relationship between fisheries and long-term temperature fluctuations was evaluated on the basis of annual catch
statistics and hydrographic observation data collected by Iwate Fisheries Technology Center. Two different trends
were found between set-nets and other fisheries. Total catch levels by set-nets have been maintained relatively
high depending upon the decadal changes of dominant fish due to regime shifts and local oceanographic shifts as:
Seriola quinqueradiata, Scomber spp. and Todarodes pacificus in the 1960s, Sardinops melanostictus in the 1980s,
Oncorhynchus keta in the 1990s, and O. keta, Scomber spp., S. quinqueradiata and T. pacificus in the 2000s. On
the other hand, total catches by other small-scale fisheries, in which the target fish are limited by each boat due
to the selectivity of fishing gear, have been greatly decreased since the 1990s. In these fisheries, a lot of fish, e.g.
T. pacificus, Scomber spp., Ammodytes personatus, Cololabis saira, flounders and sharks, were captured by various
fishing gears as long-lines, squid jigging or lift nets during 1960–1970. Since the 1980s, the catch diversity has
been decreased due to the concentration of the dominant fish in O. keta, C. saira and Euphausia pacifica by meansof not only oceanographic changes but also the decrease of fishing efforts depending upon the social factors.

C1-6257

Mitochondrial and microsatellite DNA structure of the small yellow croaker, Larimichthyspolyactis (Pisces: Sciaenidae) in the Yellow and East China Seas
Jin Koo Kim1, Gi-Sik Min2, Moon-Geun Yoon3 and Yeonghye Kim4
12
34

Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University, Busan, 608-737, R Korea. E-mail: taengko@hanmail.net
Department of Biological Sciences, Inha University, Incheon, 402-751, R Korea
Institute of Marine Living Modified Organisms, Pukyong National University, Busan, 607-737, R Korea
National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, Busan, 619-705, R Korea

Genetic variation was surveyed at the mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region (766bp) and four microsatellite (ms)DNA loci to test for the presence of genetic stock structure in the small yellow croaker, Larimichthys polyactis
in the Yellow and East China Seas. Based on mtDNA control region sequence data, individuals of the small
yellow croaker could not be distinguished on the basis of its location, as demonstrated using the neighbor-joining(NJ) method and the minimum spanning network (MSN). AMOVA revealed no significant differences amongcollections of the small yellow croaker taken from the four locations (each two locations in Korea and China).
Neutrality tests and a mismatch distribution analysis indicated that this species has recently expanded. Based on
msDNA marker variation, estimate of expected (HE) heterozygosity for four microsatellites in each population
ranged from 0.776 to 0.947. The pairwise FST values ranged between 0.007 and 0.037. The results obtained thus
indicated congruence of both mtDNA and msDNA markers in the genetic differentiation, which was no significant
signal of differentiation between Korean and Chinese populations of the small yellow croaker. Our findings
suggest that the small yellow croaker either has a high migration capability that enables it to overcome the effects
of genetic drift, or that this species expanded relatively recently and has not yet had sufficient time to differentiate.

171

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

C1-6265

Contesting views or collaborative opportunity? Risk perception, science and fisheries
management, Tasmania, Australia
Melissa Nursey-Bray1, Gretta Pecl2, Stewart Frusher2, Caleb Gardner2, Marcus Haward3, Alistair J. Hobday4,
Sarah Jennings5, André E. Punt6, Hilary Revill7 and Ingrid van Putten4
1

2
3

4
5
6

7

National Centre for Marine Conservation and Resource Sustainability, Australian Maritime College – a specialist Institute of the
University of Tasmania, Locked Bag 1370, Launceston, Tasmania, 7250, Australia. E-mail: m.nursey-bray@amc.edu.au
Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 49, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
School of Government and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 22, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001,
Australia
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 1583, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
School of Economics and Finance, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 85, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
Marine Population and Management Group, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, P.O. Box 355020,
Seattle, WA, 98195-5020, USA
Wild Fisheries Management Branch, Department of Primary Industries and Water, P.O. Box 44, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia

World fisheries, already vulnerable, are under increasing pressure from the impacts of climate change. This paper
addresses this challenge. Using the Tasmanian rock lobster industry as a case study, we consider the efficacy ofrisk perception as a tool to inform science and management in relation to development of adaptation strategies forfisheries in a climate change context.
Specifically, we report on the results of a risk perception exercise, conducted with rock lobster fishers in Tasmania,
in order to gain insights into fisher understanding of the impacts of climate change. This study, conducted as partof an inter-disciplinary vulnerability assessment of the Tasmanian rock lobster revealed high scepticism within theindustry in relation to perceptions of climate change per se. Nonetheless, research results produced a high degreeof anecdotal evidence relating to observed changes to the environment that were correlative with predicted climatechange impacts for the species. In a follow up workshop that utilised various scientific climate scenarios, fishers
also identified a range of adaptation strategies for the industry.
Research shows that public risk perceptions often drive policy as much as scientific assessments. This paper
reflects on our collective experience of participating in an interdisciplinary vulnerability assessment. In thiscontext, we argue that in fact it is when the results of risk perception work are combined with scientific and otherassessments, that the insights gained can play a catalytic role in generating awareness about as well as inform
policy and fisher, responses to climate change.

C1-6284

Forecasting practice on the common squid (Todarodes pacificus) population responding
climate/oceanographic changes
Suam Kim1, Sangwook Yeh2, Chung-Il Lee3, Sukyung Kang4, Hyunwoo Kang2, Jin-Hee Yoon2, Jung Jin Kim1 andSinjae Yoo2
1

2
3
4

Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University, 599-1 Daeyeon3-dong, Nam-gu, Busan, 608-737, R Korea
E-mail: suamkim@pknu.ac.kr
Korea Ocean Research and Development Institute, Ansan P.O. Box 29, 425-600, Seoul, R Korea
Kangnung-Wonju National University, 120 Gangneung Daehangno, Gangwon-do, 210-702, R Korea
National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, 152-1 Haean-ro, Gijang-gun, Busan, 619-705, R Korea

The common squid, Todarodes pacificus, is the most abundant fishery resource in Korean waters, and it has been
known that its biomass generally fluctuates in accordance with the changes in ocean temperature. However, windvelocity and mixed layer depth on the spawning ground and transport processes during the early life stages arealso recognized as potentially important controlling factors for the recruitment of common squid in the following
season. Based on biological and oceanographic information we collected from field sampling and modelingstudies, we forecasted locations of spawning and feeding grounds, and its abundances up to 2050 using MPI
model under climate change scenario SRES A1B.

172

C1

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

C1-6309Fluctuation on fish fauna in the east southern sea of Korea during 2006-2009
Jung Hwa Ryu1, Jin Koo Kim2 and Dong Seon Kim3
1
2
3

Ryujunghwa Marine Research Institute, 444-10 Gaya 3-dong, Busan, 614-803, R Korea. E-mail: okdom-ryu@hanmail.net
Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University, Busan, R Korea
Pukyong National University, Busan, R Korea

In order to estimate the response of marine ecosystem with climate change, we have been monitoring fish species
composition in the east southern sea of Korea during 2006-2009 using shrimp trawl. A total of 79 species wascollected, of which cumulative number of fish species was 48 species in 2006, 65 in 2007, 71 in 2008 and 76
in 2009. It showed a rapid increase until 2007, but slight increase since then. The dominant species in thenumber of individuals were Apogon lineatus, Engraulis japonicus and Conger myrister in 2006, A. lineatus,
C. myrister and Chelidonichthys spinosus in 2007, C. myrister, A. lineatus and Sebastes thompsoni in 2008,
Clidoderma asperrimum, Acropoma japonicum and C. myrister in 2009. The dominant species in biomass were
Okamejei kenojei, C. myrister and C. spinosus, but C. asperrimum was newly dominant species in 2009 unlike
the former years. Comparing to the results by Youn and Shim (2000) conducted in the same area but in 1999,
subtropical fishes, Aulopus japonicus, Epinephelus septemfasciatus, Kaiwarinus equula, Leiognathus elongatus
and Chaetodon modestus were newly found in recent years, resulting from the climate change.

C1-6378

Reasons for high vulnerability of coastal fishing communities of Baja California (Mexico)and potential adaptation strategies to climate change
Salvador Lluch-Cota, René Kachok and María Verónica Morales-Zárate
Fisheries Ecology, Centro de Investigaciones Biologicas del Noroeste (CIBNOR), Mar Bermejo No. 195, Col. Playa Palo de Sta. Rita, La
Paz, Baja California Sur, 23000, México. E-mail: slluch@cibnor.mx

West coast of Baja California, Mexico, hosts an interesting fishing system because it combines the presence ofhighly valued fish products (abalone and lobster), management rules that include long term concessions andexclusive fishing rights, and a sophisticated organization of fisherman (in cooperatives, and a cooperatives
federation). At present the system can be considered relatively successful in terms of sustainability; however, we
believe it’s particularly vulnerable to climate change. Through retrospective and modeling analyses, we proposethat a) their main fishing resource, abalone, has shown large abundance changes driven by temperature and foodavailability, b) the potential decrease of abalone abundance cannot be compensated by increasing fishing effort forthe other high value resources, particularly the lobster, because of the predictable strong ecosystem impacts, andc) the concession system, the geographical isolation, and the fidelity to the activity could be strongly compromised
if ecosystem changes occur, even if they are not related to fishing impacts. We propose a menu of adaptation
strategies organized as specific actions that can be applied along the productive process, from the catch to themarket (productive chain).

173

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

C2 Oral Presentations
28 April, 14:35 (C2-6018), Invited

Bonnie J. McCay1
Department of Human Ecology, School of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Rutgers University, 55 Dudley Rd., New Brunswick, NJ,
08901, USA. E-mail: mccay@sebs.rutgers.edu

Research on climate change and the “coupled” socio-ecological system of the Mid-Atlantic Bight and its surfclam
population, fishery, and management system has led to rethinking of the “human dimension” in climate change
and ecosystem-based management. The standard ways of thinking about humans in relation to ecosystems
include human activities and by-products as threats, whether discrete or cumulative (the “anthropogenesis”
factor); humans as consumers of “ecosystem services” (including “valuation” and “tradeoff” analyses); and,from the social scientists, humans as those affected by environmental or—more likely—regulatory change (the“social impact” approach). Also there is the larger view of humans as “tragedians of the commons,” reflecting theinadequacies and failures of our institutions for managing marine systems, where property rights are complex andfluid and jurisdictional boundaries rarely coincident with ecosystem properties.
Adding climate change to the mix suggests the inadequacy of these approaches due to the greater dynamics anduncertainties involved and also because of the need to look seriously at mitigation and adaptation. This situation
adds some urgency to yet another perspective: people as thoughtful, interested, and differentially situated actors
in “dramas of the commons,” or situations in which people—for example, scientists, managers, vessel owners,
factory workers—interact socially to try to deal with and correct the problems they experience and anticipate.
Their institutions are extremely important to these efforts but so is their creativity and sociality. Our ongoing
research on responses to climate change in a coupled marine system allows us to explore these multiple approaches
to “human dimensions.”

28 April, 15:00 (C2-6021)

Food security, fisheries, and climate change
Serge M. Garcia, Andrew A. Rosenberg and Jake Rice
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Station 12S014, 200 Kent St., Ottawa, ON, K1A 0E6, Canada
E-mail: Jake.Rice@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

The World population is expected to grow from the present 6.8 billion people to about 9 billion by 2050, and a higher
proportion will live in coastal communities. Desertification and increased number and intensity of severe storms
associated with climate change poses a high risk of reducing crop and livestock production in many of the regionswith high population density. The consequences for global and regional food security will affect fisheries among
other sectors. The demand for nutritious and healthy food will increase the demand for marine and freshwater
resources in both high-value markets and regions with poverty and high population density. However, theseresources are already stressed to their maximum level of productivity and often beyond, by fishing, in a context ofgrowing organic pollution, toxic contamination, coastal degradation, and climate change. Looking towards 2050,
current ocean policies and governance needs to be reviewed relative to the role of oceans in meeting future foodsecurity needs. Current dialogue on appropriate levels for production from capture fisheries and aquaculture andbalance between conservation of aquatic biodiversity and resource extraction rarely include serious discussion of
future food security needs and the role of fish in meeting them. This paper tried to open the necessary dialogue.
This paper will develop these points, providing an overview of regional and global food security needs, expectedshortfalls from land-based food production, and the main drivers of change affecting the fishery and aquaculture
sector. From this overview we sill suggest how new science, policies and interventions could best address thosechallenges, and the types of dialogues that need to open in policy and governance to allow greater progress to be
made.

175

C2

Surfclam dramas and other stories about the human dimensions of climate change andfisheries

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 15:15 (C2-6282)

Citizen science as a research tool for monitoring ecological change in the marine
environment
Gretta Pecl1, Rebecca Brown1, Peter Walsh1, Stewart Frusher1, Graham Edgar1, Jeremy Lyle1, Elvira S. Poloczanska2
and Rick Stuart-Smith1
12Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, Private Bag 49, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
E-mail: Gretta.Pecl@utas.edu.au
Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO, P.O. Box 120, Cleveland, Queensland, 4163, Australia

A major challenge in establishing how climate change may be impacting on our marine ecosystems, particularly
in Australia, is the scarcity of ecological monitoring programs that inform us of such changes. Tasmania has
a relatively large fishing industry, high participation rate in recreational fishing, and a high number of otherindividuals utilising marine waters, e.g. boaters and scuba divers spending many hours around the water
potentially providing observations at low cost. We have developed a web-based on-line database and mapping
facility (REDMAP – Range Extension Database and Mapping project) where members of the public submit dataon catches/observations of key species that may be impacted by climate change. Range extensions in Tasmania
have already been recorded in barnacles, sea urchins and dozens of fish species. Volunteer recording schemesor ‘citizen science’ projects, can generate considerable amounts of valuable information for researchers, involvecommunities, and raise public awareness of conservation issues. Community participation in REDMAP cancreate for individuals the sense (and in this case, the reality) that they are actively and constructively helping
with a major issue currently facing the global community – people can log on and literally see ‘their’ data pointon the map. Making the community aware of climate change issues in the marine context is a challenge as theimpacts are less visible in comparison to ‘dry rivers’ and ‘forest dieback’. REDMAP is greatly assisting in raisingawareness and engaging participants in our fishing industries, improving industry and community understandingof the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity and resources.

28 April, 15:30 (C2-6300)

Will diversity assist adaptability? A case study contrasting diverse and specialized fishingsectors in the Queensland Inshore Fishery, Australia
Renae C. Tobin and Stephen G. Sutton
Fishing and Fisheries Research Centre, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, 4811, Australia
E-mail: renae.tobin@jcu.edu.au

In the face of climate change, fisheries should be aiming to become more diverse, rather than specialized. A
diverse fishery is likely to be more adaptable to change in species distribution and availability resulting fromclimate change. Traditional fisheries management, however, has aimed to increase economic efficiency andimprove ease of management through encouraging fisheries to be dominated by a few large operators targeting
single species. Using the Queensland (Australia) Inshore Fishery as a case study, this project shows how adiverse fishing sector is likely to be more adaptable to climate change. The Commercial Inshore Fishery on
Queensland’s east-coast contains a diverse array of operators. Fishers harvest a diverse range of species andmarkets are available for byproduct species as well as the main target species, suggesting fishers should be able
to easily adapt to environmental factors that impact the availability of one inshore species by shifting their effort
to readily available substitutes. Most commercial fishers also operate in more than one fishery, meaning they
are able to shift effort to other fisheries if needed. In contrast, Inshore Charter fishers are highly specialized,with a high dependence on a single species (barramundi) within a limited area. Further, most charter fishers are
dependent solely on the Inshore Fishery, suggesting limited capacity to diversify into other fisheries if needed.
The contrasting characteristics of these two sectors suggest a very different capacity to adapt to change.

176

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 15:45 (C2-6098)

Economic strategies for avoiding climate change effects on Japanese salmon fisheries
Ikutaro Shimizu1, Tsutomu Ohnuki2 and Kunio Abe2
1

Salmon are important fishery resources with global commercial value. It is thought that global warming will havea marked influence on salmon inhabiting subarctic waters. Salmon fisheries are an important industry in northern
Japan, so it is necessary to examine strategies for global warming effects from an economic viewpoint. The
demand for seafood is increasing globally; however, there is a risk that the stability and yield of cold-water fisheries
resources will decrease due to global warming, causing prices to rise and pricing salmon out of global markets.
The results of investigations of salmon fisheries in Hokkaido suggest the cornerstones for building economic
strategies to be ‘stability of resources’ and ‘prices.’ Cushioning salmon fisheries against the effects of global
warming may be enabled by a combination of local, regional and global economic strategies. Local strategies;(1) saving fishing profits in rich years and using them as funds for lean years, (2) developing local resources tocomplement more regional resources, (3) maintaining prices of local resources by cooperation between salmon
hatcheries, set-net fisheries, and seafood processing industries. Regional strategies; (4) planning the coexistenceof hatchery salmon and wild salmon and letting both resources stabilize, (5) examining methods of raising thereturn rate of salmon, based on joint Japanese and Russian observation of the Okhotsk Sea. Global strategies;(6) planning differentiation by eco-labeling to evaluate hatchery salmon in the global market, (7) regarding eastern
Asia as an extension of the Japanese market. These seven strategies are likely to help to improve the basis offisheries management.

28 April, 16:20 (C2-6185), Invited

Climate change, fisheries and aquaculture in the Pacific – Implications for food security,
livelihoods and economic growth
Johann D. Bell
Strategic Engagement, Policy and Planning Facility, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, B.P. D5, Noumea Cedex, 98848, New Caledonia
E-mail: johannb@spc.int

The extent to which fisheries underpin food security, livelihoods and economic growth throughout the Pacific is
astounding. Fisheries provides 51-94% of the animal protein for people in coastal areas, where annual per capita
fish consumption often exceeds 75 kg and 60-90% of fish is derived from subsistence fishing. They are also awidespread source of income – 53 % of coastal households catch and sell fish; and thousands are employed ontuna vessels, or in tuna canneries. Fisheries are vital to national economies - sale of licence fees to distant water
fishing nations to catch tuna contribute 4.4-41.7% of government revenue for seven Pacific island counties andterritories.
But these benefits are at risk. Due to rapid population growth, a gap is emerging in the fish needed for foodsecurity and the harvests available from coastal fisheries. Also, preferred access to European markets for Pacifictuna cannot be expected to last indefinitely. Plans to make the benefits of fisheries in the Pacific resilient to suchdrivers are underway. However, climate change could derail these plans. This presentation addresses some key
questions, including: How will communities cope as the projected degradation of coral reefs widens the gap
between supply and demand in coastal fisheries? Will climate change reduce or improve access to tuna as meansof filling the food security gap? Will the expected changes in rainfall affect the ability of rural communities toengage in small pond aquaculture? Which countries will be winners or losers in terms of employment, GDP andgovernment revenue from the expected changes in the distributions of tuna?

177

C2

2

Fisheries Economy Division, National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa,236-8648, Japan. E-mail: ikutaro@affrc.go.jp
Obihiro Field Station, National Salmon Resources Center, 441-55, Taisho-cho, Obihiro, Hokkaido 089-1242, JapanClimate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 16:45 (C2-6346)

Adapting to climate change – Lessons from the Peruvian anchovy fishery on how to copewith extreme climatic events and environmental variability
Milena Arias-Schreiber1, Miguel Ñiquen2 and Marilou Bouchon2
1
2

Leibniz Center for Tropical Marine Ecology, Fahrenheitstrasse 6, Bremen, 28359, Germany. E-mail: milena@uni-bremen.de
Peruvian Marine Research Institute, Esq. Gamarra y Gral.Valle s/n, Chucuito, Callao, Peru

The Peruvian anchovy fishery is the largest worldwide in terms of catches. Starting during the mid 1950s, thisfishery has been highly dependent on drastic natural stock fluctuations due to the sensitivity of pelagic fish to
ocean-climate variability. Beyond seasonal changes, the fishery bears important yearly variability due to El Niño
Southern Oscillation events (ENSO) which affect Peruvian coasts in irregular intervals and magnitude. Since
the 1950s, three extreme ENSOs have been recorded in Peru in 1972-73, 1983-84 and 1997-98. This study
presents a list of adaptations of the commercial anchovy fishery to the mentioned events in an attempt to improve
the resilience of the fishing industry. Some coping strategies were attempted in 1972-73, however an evident
reduction of impacts was mainly observed during the 1997-98 ENSO. The strategies included: (a) instalment atseveral bays of fish reduction factories and unloading capacities strategically distributed along the Peruvian coast,
allowing changes in fishing effort following stock migrations; (b) opportunistic use of invading fish populations
when anchovy is not available; (c) an adaptive management based on flexible formal institutions avoiding thoselegal instruments that could restrict or delay decision processes; and (d) reduction of market price uncertainty
through massive investments of fishing companies in technology for quality improvement of fishmeal, andsubsequent decoupling from soybean or other protein-rich substitutes prices. Although our list is not exhaustive,
it presents a concrete example on how governments and societies can develop strategies to cope with uncertainchange impacting the availability and supply of natural resources.

28 April, 17:00 (C2-6122)

In search of new sea legs: Women’s roles in the survival of Japan’s fishing industry
Satsuki Takahashi
Department of Anthropology, Rutgers University, 131 George St., New Brunswick, NJ, 08901-1414, USA
E-mail: satsuki@eden.rutgers.edu

Seven fishermen’s wives in a coastal town opened a vendor’s booth to sell fresh and processed fish on Sundays in acorner of their local co-op’s fish market to support their local fishing industry, particularly as it has been struggling
with declining landings. The idea of opening a booth was first suggested by prefectural fisheries advisors; it wasthen carried out by volunteers from the co-op’s Women’s Association. The fisheries advisors’ idea of women’s
seafood vendor business was associated with the national Fisheries Agency’s interests in revitalizing seafood
consumption in Japan as well as in promoting financial survival strategies for local fishers even as the Agency was
cutting government subsidies for the fishing industry. As part of these efforts, officials have been increasinglyinterested in the role of the women from fishing families, or “Hama no kāchan” (coastal moms), who might act asa force for the declining fishing industry by gaining some traction in promoting domestic seafood consumption.
Most of the women who volunteered for the vendor business said that their main reason for doing so was tohelp their family’s financial situation, but that they also hoped to revitalize the troubled fishing industry. Basedon ethnographic research on survival strategies in small coastal fishing co-ops, this paper will examine how thegendered division of labor can be mobilized in support of changing state goals.

178

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 17:15 (C2-6055)

Traditional fisheries practices and adaptation to environmental change: Case studies
from Alaska and Brazil
Henry P. Huntington1, Alpina Begossi2 and Renato A.M. Silvano3
1

3

Pew Environment Group, 23834 The Clearing Dr., Eagle River, AK, 99577, USA. E-mail: hhuntington@pewtrusts.org
UNICAMP and Fisheries and Food Institute, Rua Cel Quirino, 1636 Campinas SP, Brazil
Depto. Ecologia/ UFRGS, CP 15007, 91501-970 Porto Alegre – RS, Brazil

C2

2

Local and traditional knowledge has contributed to fisheries biology and ecology by providing otherwise
unavailable information, by helping create hypotheses, and in various other ways. The use of such knowledge
and the engagement of its holders have contributed to fisheries management by improving the knowledge
base for management decisions, by increasing support among fishers for management efforts, by identifying
new regulatory approaches, and in other ways. To date, however, relatively few efforts have been made to use
traditional knowledge and traditional practices as the basis for adaptation to environmental change. We explore
case studies from Alaska and Brazil to examine the how drawing on traditional practices can enhance detectionof and resilience and adaptation to environmental change from climate change, invasive species, pollution, water
diversion, and other factors. Specifically, traditional knowledge and practices can allow rapid adjustment of
harvest depending on environmental conditions, provide a margin of safety to prevent overharvest, lead to new
harvest practices that reflect changing conditions, allow fishers to base decision on their expectations of ecosystemtrends, and allow other adjustments to be made locally and quickly. Whether formal regulatory systems andthe economic realities of the marketplace permit such changes is another question, but the connections between
traditional practices and adaptation deserve more attention academically and in practice.

28 April, 17:30 (C2-6318)

Fishers’ local ecological knowledge about fish and climatic change
Renato A.M. Silvano1,2, Henry P. Huntington3 and Alpina Begossi2,41234Depto. Ecologia/ UFRGS, CP 15007, 91501-970 Porto Alegre – RS, Brazil. E-mail: renato.silvano@ufrgs.br
Fisheries and Food Institute, Rua Coronel Quirino 1636, Campinas, 13025-002, - SP, Brazil
Pew Environment Group, 23834 The Clearing Dr., Eagle River, AK, 99577, USA
Capesca- PREAC (Lepac) and CMU, CP 6023, Unicamp, SP, Brazil

Fishers’ local ecological knowledge (LEK) has been applied to improve understanding on ecology, migration,
temporal trends in abundance, feeding habits and reproduction of fishing resources worldwide. Climatic changes
may affect coastal fish and fisheries, but the relationship between fishers’ LEK and climatic changes is still poorly
known. Our aim is to analyze the potential contribution of fishers’ LEK to improve the current knowledge
on fisheries related effects of climatic changes. We made a review of study cases at the Brazilian coast andAlaska, which used semi-structured interviews with small scale fishers through standardized questionnaires
about seasonal abundance, migration, distribution and reproduction of coastal fishes and whales. We compared
information gathered with young and older (40 years and over) fishers, linking fishers’ LEK based data withpossible climatic changes’ effects on fish. We argue that fishers’ LEK could be useful in two ways. First, it may
serve as a baseline for comparison with future trends of resource abundance and distribution driven by climaticchanges. Second, fishers’ LEK may indicate changes already occurring, especially where these changes have been
more pronounced and long lasting. However, fishers’ perceptions regarding changes in fish abundance and otherparameters (migration, reproduction) may be also related to short term environmental changes (pollution, habitat
degradation) and overfishing. A major challenge will be to disentangle these causal factors from the effects ofclimatic changes. Nevertheless, fishers’ LEK may be a useful source of information to understand and cope withclimatic changes, especially in countries where scientific data is scarce.

179

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 17:45 (C2-6129)

The Lake Chilwa fishing household strategies in response to water level changes:
Migration and conflicts
Friday J. Njaya
Fisheries Policy and Planning, Malawi Fisheries Department, Ring Rd., Capital Hill, P.O. Box 593, Lilongwe, Central, 593, Malawi
E-mail: fnjaya@gmail.com

In this paper, household strategies are examined in response to water level fluctuations of Lake Chilwa due toclimate change. The frequency and patterns of migration of fishers, conflicts due to migration of fishers, and comanagement are also analysed. The seasonal and periodic lake level changes affect livelihoods of the households.
As coping and adaptation strategies, the households depend on fishing in pools of water located in influent rivers
and hunt birds for income and food while others migrate elsewhere to work as casual labourers. When the lake
rises during the rainy season, inundated areas become suitable for production of maize and rice. However, when
the floods recede in the dry season, farming of winter maize and vegetables is common. Moreover, migrationof fishers is common around Lake Chilwa. The pattern of migration varies according to the season and gear
type. Conflicts emerge due to the seining operations, which require removal of aquatic vegetation. The conflicts
are in various forms including access to fishing grounds, authority to grant access to fishing areas and fish
price competition between the local fishers and migrants. Finally, the household strategies towards recoveryof the fishery after the water has receded are inherent within the households’ traditional system. A diversified
occupational change involving fishing, farming and trading is necessary. Since these households are dependent
on the availability of fisheries, it is thus imperative to promote maximum resource exploitation in between periodsof low lake level and to encourage a complete stop to fishing during periods of low water level.

28 April, 18:00 (C2-6159)

Building community adaptability through ecosystem approach planning in the Provinceof Aurora, Philippines
Pedcris M. Orencio1 and Masahiko Fujii2
1

2

Division of Environmental Science Development, Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, 0600810, Japan. E-mail: pedorencio@ees.hokudai.ac.jp
Graduate School of Environmental Science, Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, 060-0810, Japan

Ecosystem planning is planning within the context of the area’s available resources; the constraints accompaniedwith the use of the resource and the opportunities that come with the proper use of the resources. In the adventof climate change, undertaking ecosystem approach planning within the context of a province, which has aunique natural resource base such as Aurora, will provide measures on how to build adaptive mechanisms forvulnerable communities. Using existing available data, such as topographic and satellite maps, and previous
resource assessment surveys and environmental profiling activities conducted, the researcher assessed the natureof the resource base. The assessments were then presented with community stakeholders and decision makers inorder to validate and analyze the assessment conducted, and formulate strategic actions that aimed to optimize
opportunities for sustainable management which is anchored in adaptive planning. Results showed that theprovince’s opportunities lie on its social capital and its natural resource base and that inter-local cooperation in
managing a common resource should be strengthened to ensure integrated management of the resource base.

180

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 18:15 (C2-6207)

Household fishermen empowerment based on local community wisdom as a problem
solver on fishermen poverty: Case study in Madura Strait, Indonesia
Sahri Muhammad, Pudji Purwanti and Aida Sartimbul

C2

Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, University of Brawijaya, Jalan Veteran, Malang 65145, Indonesia
E-mail: aida@brawijaya.ac.id; aidasartimbul@yahoo.com

Poverty is still the main threat for small scale fishermen because of their relatively small asset value. Various
empowerment programs have been conducted by the government, however the results fall far below expectations.
Therefore the aim of this study are: (1) to study the potential of pentagon asset and heptagon access to response
current empowerments, (2) to assess the approach effectively that may cause the failure of empowerment, (3) tocreate the social and economic household fishermen empowerment model design as their community characteristics.
Study methods were survey method and poverty rapid appraisal (PRA). The primary data were collected fromfishermen household using participatory poverty assessment (PPA) and sustainable livelihoods approach (SLA).
The results show that (1) asset value and social access are relatively high, (2) former empowerment based on
co-management model with consultative type was found to be government-dominated and therefore with low
community participation, (3) this study offers an alternative empowerment model based on local community
wisdom with autonomy, participation, partnership, and various social community condition considerations.

181

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

C2 Posters
C2-6086

Impact of climate change on livelihood and food security of artisanal fisherfolks in Lagos
State, Nigeria
Siyanbola Adewumi Omitoyin1, Tosan Fregene2 and Dontsop Paul3
1
2
3

Department of Animal Science and Fisheries Management, Bowen University, Iwo, PMB 284, Nigeria. E mail: sbomitoyin@yahoo.com
Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Management, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria
Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria

The artisanal fishery which is basically rural, occupies a significant position in the Nigerian economy providing
employment for about 5.8% of the Nigerian population and supplying 81.9% of the total domestic fish production.
However, climate change is already modifying the distribution of fish species with changes in habitat size, species
diversification and productivity. Fish supply from this sub-sector has thus continued to decline. The study,
therefore, examined the impact of climate change on livelihood and food security of artisanal fisherfolks in Lagos
State, Nigeria.
A stratified sampling technique was used to select 58 lagoon, 15 coastal and 15 riverine fishing communities in
Lagos State. A total of 311 respondents were interviewed using structured questionnaire. Data collected include
socio-economic characteristics, livelihood parameters, fish species and productivity data while climatic data was
obtained from the weather station and meteorology department. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics
and stochastic frontier catch function analysis. The result of the analysis showed that there were changes intemperature and rainfall pattern which is a deviation from the normal trend. Variation in species diversity andabundance was also observed. There were other sources of livelihood engaged in either as primary or secondary
occupation. The technical efficiency of the gears used among the fisherfolks in lagoon was 26.4%, coastal 80%
and riverine 52.9%. There is the need to put in place strategies that will mitigate the effect of climate change byimproving access to micro-credit, use of better gear, reduction in fish loss through effective methods of preservationand value addition to their products. Coping strategies which include alternative sources of livelihood can also
be encouraged.

C2-6140

Modeling energy consumption efficiency of fisheries: What to gain by effort displacement?
The case of Danish Skagerrat-Kattegat fisheries
Francois Bastardie, J. Rasmus Nielsen, Bo Sølgaard Andersen and Ole Eigaard
Department of Marine Fisheries, Danish Institute for Fisheries Research, Charlottenlund Castle, Technical University of Denmark,DK-2920, Charlottenlund, Denmark. E-mail: rn@aqua.dtu.dk

The global concern about reduction in CO2 emissions leads to question the fishery catch sector by cutting the large
fuel consumption that constitutes a major part of the cost of fishing. Efficiency in energy use, i.e. the amountof fuel needed to catch one kilogram of fish, is first calculated and its dependency on particular fishing practices
evaluated. Observed spatial and seasonal pattern of fishing effort is then considered against two alternative
effort re-allocation scenarios for presumable fisher’s adaptation: (A) preferring smaller catches (maybe less value)
nearby over larger catches (possible higher value) farther off, and (B) shifting toward fisheries targeting closer
stocks from their designated harbours. Effort scenarios were tested by developing an individual-based model
for modeling fishing vessel movements in interaction with the underlying spatio-temporal distribution of theresources, this latter informed from scientific surveys. Vessel-based fuel consumption and energy efficiency werecomputed over the year 2005-2009 after coupling high resolved spatial and temporal effort data with logbook
catch declarations, sales slips, vessel engine specifications, and fish and oil price time series. These indicators
were further detailed at the fishery scale by classifying fishing trips into various aggregations of fleet-segments.
Results of scenarios are compared to the historic effort pattern allocation and possible fuel saving and energy
efficiency improvement is highlighted when effort is displaced toward less valuable stocks but closer to the ports.
Possible side effects on stock dynamics of concentrated fishing pressure on certain areas are also investigated.

182

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesC2-6155

The role of the academe in undertaking research and developing management strategies
to address climate change impacts on fisheries: Some examples of initiatives of academic
institutions in the Philippines
1

2
3
4
5

Center for Strategic Policy and Governance, Palawan State University, G/F Medical Bldg, Tiniguiban Heights, Puerto Princesa City,
Palawan, 5300, Philippines. E-mail: mdpido@yahoo.com
Rizal Technological University, Metro Manila, Philippines
WorldFish Center, SEARCA Office, Laguna, Philippines
Eastern Visayas State University, Leyte, Philippines
Environmental Management Bureau, Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines

The active participation of relevant stakeholder groups is critical to effectively address climate change impacts
on fisheries’ production and distribution. The academe’s role as a stakeholder is quite important in conducting
relevant research and developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. This paper aims to describe
two research works related to climate change being undertaken by the state universities and colleges (SUCs) in
the Philippines. Led by the Philippine Association of Tertiary Level Educational Institutions in Environmental
Protection and Management, several SUCs in Region 8 were involved in documenting good practices andadaptation strategies to climate change related to fisheries. Manifestations of climate change impacts are greater
frequency of harmful algal blooms (HABs) and coral bleaching among others that have resulted in decrease infish catch from 30 metric tons/year to 26 metric tons/year. Monitoring of relevant HAB and coral parameters aresuggested as protection strategies while change of fishing grounds is forwarded as an accommodation strategy.
Spearheaded by the WorldFish Center (international fisheries research organization), several SUC were engaged
in evaluating relevant fisheries’ threats. Climate change was identified as a ‘high risk’ threat, with a high impact
and high likelihood of occurrence. It was also identified as a cross-cutting issue although its relevance varies
from being a motor factor (active element with predictable impacts) into being simply a symptom element that isgreatly influenced by other elements. These illustrative examples show that the academe could play a crucial rolein generating useful information to developing relevant measures to address climate change impacts on fisheries.

C2-6169“Bringing it all together” – A multi-disciplined, collaborative approach to preparing
fisheries and aquaculture for climate change in South Eastern Australia
Ingrid L. Holliday
Program Coordinator, GPO Box 4440, VIC, 3001, Australia. E-mail: Ingrid.L.Holliday@dpi.vic.gov.au

The south eastern Australian marine region is considered to be a global marine ‘hotspot’ for climate change.
Temperatures in the region have risen and continue to rise more rapidly than elsewhere in Australia, and possibly
the Southern Hemisphere. Such oceanographic changes are predicted to directly affect marine resources, leading
to social and economic flow-on effects for reliant businesses and communities. Changes to the range or abundancesof resources will provide particular challenges for resource managers of the five separate jurisdictions in theregion. The implications of these changes will depend on how well prepared governments, research organisations,and fishing and aquaculture sectors are to respond.
Stakeholders in the region are responding to the climate change challenge through a collaborative, multidisciplined program. This is the first program of its kind in Australia involving multiple jurisdictions aimed atcoordinating research, development, extension, and policy relating to marine resources. The program is guided
by an adaptation framework that assists in bringing together information on exposure and sensitivity to understandlikely impacts. It also considers adaptive capacity in informing overall vulnerability and provides a risk based
approach for evaluating adaptation strategies for both the sectors and for resource managers.
This presentation is provided on behalf of the program partners. It will outline how the adaptation framework is
being used in South Eastern Australia, information about likely impacts and challenges in this ‘hotspot’ region,and particularly, the steps being taken to prepare fisheries and aquaculture businesses and communities, andresource management for future change.

183

C2

Michael D. Pido1, Ruth Guzman2, Maripaz L. Perez3, Elvira Martija4, Elen R. Basug5 and Len R. Garces3

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesC2-6172

Could management react to a changing climate? The case of the Japanese small pelagic fishes
Felipe Hurtado-Ferro, Sachihiko Itoh and Kunio Shirakihara
Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
E-mail: felipehurtado@nenv.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Small pelagic fishes are valuable marine resources of Japan, as well as highly variable ones. Record catches for
the Japanese sardine (Sardinops melanostictus) were registered during the late 80’s, but a four-year recruitment
failure led to severe stock depletion and have been in low level since then; on the contrary, Japanese anchovy(Engraulis japonicus) stock has increased steadily declining slightly on the last 4 years.

C2-6178

Potential impacts of climate change on Japanese scallop aquaculture: A case study in
Funka Bay, Hokkaido, JapanI Nyoman Radiarta1,2, Sei-ichi Saitoh1 and Toru Hirawake1
1

2

Laboratory of Marine Environment and Resource Sensing, Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato,
Hakodate, Hokkaido, 041-8611, Japan. E-mail: radiarta@salmon.fish.hokudai.ac.jp
Research Center for Aquaculture, Agency for Marine and Fisheries Research, Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, Jl. Ragunan 20,
Pasar Minggu, Jakarta, 12540, Indonesia

Evidence has been accumulating in recent years that suggest climate change might drive changes in aquaculture
development. Sustainability of scallop production is also influenced by changes of environmental conditions.
Climate change presents unquantifiable threats in the forms of increased temperatures, extreme weather
and diminishing water supplies. In this study, to model the potential impact of climate change on the scallop
aquaculture, we carried out a two-step analysis. First, we analyzed the suitability of sites for Japanese scallop
aquaculture using an integrated remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS)-based model. Multicriteria evaluation was adapted to the GIS models in order to rank sites on a 1 (least suitable)-to-8 (most suitable)
scale. Second, in the site selection analysis, we examined the potential climate change impacts using the sea
surface temperature (SST) values of 1°C, 2°C, or 4°C. These three SST values were selected based on the fourth
assessment report of the IPCC. By increasing the SST values, we found that the most suitable sites (score 8)
indicated slight (26.4%), significant (14%) and drastic (0.01%) changes compared with the original model (29%),
respectively. These prediction models showed that climate change, by altering the physical characteristics ofsuitable cultivation areas, can have detectable impacts on the development of scallop aquaculture. The models also
indicated that climate change might have an important impact on the future development of marine aquaculture inthis region, a prospect that will need to be considered.

184

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

C2-6281

Australian National Climate Change Adaptation Research Network for Marine
Biodiversity and Resources
Neil Holbrook1, Gretta Pecl2, Alistair J. Hobday3 and Stewart Frusher2
1

3

School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
E-mail: Gretta.Pecl@utas.edu.au
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia

C2

2

The Australian National Climate Change Adaptation Research Network for Marine Biodiversity and Resources(ARN-MBR, or the Marine Adaptation Network) is an interdisciplinary network that is building adaptive capacity
and adaptive response strategies for the effective management of marine biodiversity and natural marine resources
under climate change. The central aim is to lead Australia’s efforts in understanding and adapting to today’s
emerging climate change needs, while also providing the training ground for the development of tomorrow’sinterdisciplinary climate change researchers. The network fosters collaborative and creative interdisciplinary
research, data-sharing, communication and education, and helps advance and document climate change adaptation
knowledge so that policy and decision-makers can develop appropriate climate change adaptation strategies tobuild adaptive capacity. The network comprises a holistic framework that cross-cuts climate change risk, marine
biodiversity and resources, socioeconomics, and policy, and includes ecosystems and species from the tropics
to Antarctic waters. The Network has been developed around five interconnecting marine themes (integration,
biodiversity and resources, markets, communities, and policy) that address and respond to cross-cutting issues.
Network initiatives include national workshops to synthesise existing and emerging research and identify
knowledge gaps, a database repository for data-sharing, interactive tools (e.g. searchable on-line databases; casestudies; links to research projects; toolkits for stakeholders to respond to climate change risks) and summer/winterschools for postgraduate students and early career researchers in climate change adaptation. We invite you to bepart of this inclusive network, open to all marine researchers, stakeholders and end-users. Registration can becompleted online at www.nccarf.edu.au/marine/.

185

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

D2 Oral Presentations
28 April, 14:35 (D2-6117), Invited

Global change projection for ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystem
Michio Kawamiya
Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showamachi, Kanazawa-ku,
Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan. E-mail: kawamiya@jamstec.go.jp

28 April, 15:00 (D2-6325)

Decadal variability in the oceanic frontal zones in the western North Pacific Ocean in an
eddy-resolving OGCM
Masami Nonaka1, Bunmei Taguchi2, Hideharu Sasaki2 and Hisashi Nakamura1,3
1

2
3

Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
E-mail: nona@jamstec.go.jp
Earth Simulator Center, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
Graduate School of Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanThe western North Pacific (NP) region is known as one of the centers of Pacific decadal variability, and air-sea
interactions in the region may have a key role to induce or intensify the decadal variations. Recent studies haverevealed the possible importance of oceanic frontal zones to feedbacks from the ocean to the atmosphere. We
have investigated variations in the oceanic frontal zones based on a hindcast integration of an eddy-resolving
OGCM. We find that the corresponding decadal sea surface temperature anomalies in the western NP region havetheir maxima along the Oyashio Extension (subarctic) frontal zone, while sea surface height (SSH) anomalies aremost prominent along the Kuroshio Extension (KE) frontal zone. In association with the SSH variations, the KE
Current has decadal variations in latitude of its axis and also in its strength. Although large-scale SSH variations
associated with those decadal variations can be explained by propagation of wind-driven Rossby waves, there
are also small meridional-scale variations (i.e., frontal-scale), which cannot be directly explained by large-scale
wind-stress variations. For formation of the frontal-scale variations accompanying the decadal variations in the
KE Current strength, we suggest the possible importance of advection of high (low) potential vorticity water tothe north (south) of the KE Current. In the OGCM simulation, the KE Current strengthens at the end of 1980s,
when number of Japanese sardine started to decrease, implying some influence of the KE Current variations on
the ecosystem in the western NP.

187

D2

The protocol for global warming projection for IPCC AR5 has two target time scales: decadal and centennial.
For the decadal time scale, global models with a high horizontal resolution of (50-100 km for the atmosphere,~30 km for the ocean) are desirable. For the centennial time scale, GCM-based earth system models with amoderate horizontal resolution (~250 km for the atmosphere, ~100 km for the ocean) will be adopted to consider
interactions between climate change and biogeochemical processes significant for this time scale. One of the mainfoci for the decadal timescale projection is predictability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Preliminary
studies showed that there is a certain degree of predictability for PDO, which may have important implications
on fisheries since PDO is known to have significant impacts on ocean ecosystem. High resolution ocean models
adopted for decadal projection will also enable the assessment of impacts on fisheries due to changes in Kuroshio
and frontal structures. On the other hand, many of the models for centennial timescale projection will incorporatecarbon cycle components, meaning that the outputs will allow the assessment of future productivity and the impactof ocean acidification. Preliminary results suggest that phytoplankton productivity is significantly reduced due
to stratification especially in the equatorial Pacific. Data dissemination systems are expected to be improved in
the next round of IPCC assessment both domestically and internationally, with the hope that even more scientists,
including fisheries scientists, will be able to investigate the impacts of global warming using projected data.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 15:15 (D2-6209)

Simulating lower trophic level ecosystem dynamics in the Bering Sea
Georgina A. Gibson1, Kate Hedström2, Enrique N. Curchitser3 and Albert J. Hermann4
1

2

3
4

International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, P.O. Box 757340, Fairbanks, AK, 99775-7340, USA
E-mail: ggibson@iarc.uaf.edu
Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 909 Koyukuk Dr., Suite 105, P.O. Box 756020, Fairbanks, AK,
99775-6020, USA
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd., New Brunswick, NJ, 08901-8525, USA
Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, 3737 Brooklyn Ave. NE, P.O. Box 355672,
Seattle, WA, 98105-5672, USA

Despite frequently being ice covered until March, the continental shelf of the eastern Bering Sea is one of theworld’s most productive marine ecosystems, with its fisheries representing half of the marine harvest in UnitedStates waters. Large changes in lower trophic level ecosystem dynamics have been observed on inter-annual andinter-decadal time scales, although the mechanisms giving rise to these changes are not well understood. We
present a lower trophic level ecosystem model for the Bering Sea that has been developed to explore relationshipbetween climate, ocean conditions, productivity and flow of energy through the food web. The core of theecosystem model is a Nutrient-Phytoplankton-Zooplankton model which has been coupled to an ice-biology
module and to a benthic sub-model. This modeling effort is a fundamental element of an integrated program todevelop a forecast system for predicting the effects of future climate change on the ecosystem of the Bering Sea.
Specifically, the integrated modeling effort aims to test the hypothesis that “Climate-induced changes in physicalforcing of the Bering Sea will modify the availability and partitioning of food for all trophic levels of the shelfecosystem through bottom-up processes”. We illustrate the models ability to capture observed differences inplankton biomass, productivity and energy flow through the food web during a ‘cold’ year and a ‘warm’ year.

28 April, 15:30 (D2-6324)

Roles of the in-situ observations in the detection of the Kuroshio frontal variability southof Japan
Yasumasa Miyazawa1, Xinyu Guo1,2, Ruo Chao Zhang1, Sergey M. Varlamov1, Tomowo Watanabe3, Takashi
Setou3 and Daisuke Ambe3
1

2
3

Research Institute for Global Change, JAMSTEC, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan
E-mail: miyazawa@jamstec.go.jp
Center for Marine Environmental Studies, Ehime University, Matsuyama, Ehime, 790-8577, Japan
National Research Institute for Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-8648, Japan

We have investigated the sensitivity of including in-situ observations on the quality of the ocean reanalysis
produced by a data assimilative eddy-resolving ocean model, with an emphasis on the Kuroshio frontal variability
south of Japan. By increasing the number of the in-situ hydrographic profiles for the data assimilation, moreenhanced Kuroshio front variations with approximately 20 days time scale were reproduced. The enhanced
features exhibited the wavelike disturbances east of the Kii Peninsula with the wave length of 400 km andconsiderably affected coastal areas through the consequent warm water intrusion, which were consistent withthe observed phenomena. Another kind of the warm water intrusion with the period of approximately 50 days
associated with the Kuroshio small meander paths was well reproduced by the reanalysis. The addition of the insitu profiles into the reanalysis did not change the intensity of these intrusions but did change their spatial patterns.
This study suggests that the combined use of operational in-situ observations in coastal regions south of Japan andtheir assimilation into the ocean model is effective to capture the Kuroshio frontal variability.

188

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 15:45 (D2-6357)

From a climate to a multi-scale earth system model: Technical issues and advances
Enrique N. Curchitser1, Kate Hedström3, William Large2 and Jon Wolf2
1

2
3

Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd., New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA
E-mail: enrique@marine.rutgers.edu
National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Dr., Boulder, CO, 80305, USA
Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, 909 Koyukuk Dr., Suite 105, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA

28 April, 16:20 (D2-6123), Invited

Climate models and fisheries: Opportunities and challenges
Anand Gnanadesikan
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Dr., Forrestal Campus, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, 08540-6649, USA
E-mail: anand.gnanadesikan@noaa.gov

Global coupled climate models have the ability to produce solutions for changes to and variability within the earthsystem consistent with our understanding of this system as a mathematically consistent set of equations. This talkdiscusses some lessons that these models can provide for fisheries science. We focus on a number of areas where
GFDL’s new earth system model shows considerable variability in primary productivity or interesting changes
under global warming. The model highlights the importance of salinity variability in setting productivity anddemonstrates that the mechanisms producing such variability can be driven by small-scale changes in wind that are
not necessarily related to classically defined climate modes. This lesson is reinforced when looking at small-scalevariability in wind patterns, such as have been linked to variability in the California Current region. Also noted
are challenges implicit in modeling the earth system- highlighting a number of areas where our understanding of
the basic physics and biology and hence of the underlying equations is weak. Physical oceanographic challenges
include the exchange between the mixed layer and thermocline and the dynamics that ventilate the oxygen
minimum zones- both of which may have implications for habitat structure. Biological challenges include therepresentation of how to link changes in the growth rate of phytoplankton (which the models should be able tosimulate with some skill) to changes in zooplankton production. Implications of this for biases in the simulationof the annual cycle of productivity are also considered.

189

D2

Traditional climate models were not designed to naturally incorporate ecosystems and human activity as an integral
part of the model solution. Part of the challenge is a result of the disparate relevant scales between the physics
and biology. Furthermore, as interest is rising in regional climate impacts, it is becoming necessary to span awider range of scales in both physics and biology. In this paper we present a climate model with a multi scaleocean component that is designed to both resolve coastal and shelf processes and incorporate lower and higher
trophic level ecosystem models in a climate-scale simulation. The physical model is based on the NCAR CCSM
global model and the ROMS regional ocean model. We present some of the technical issues in developing sucha system. We will also discuss issues related to both down- and up-scaling and their relevance to the modelingof ecosystems.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 16:45 (D2-6323)

Interannual variations of 3D structures of lower-trophic-level ecosystems in the western
North Pacific using a new marine ecosystem model based on an eddy-resolving dataassimilative OGCM
Kosei Komatsu1,2, Naoki Yoshie3, Shin-ichi Ito4, Takahiko Kameda5, Tsuneo Ono6, Kiyotaka Hidaka5, Toru
Hasegawa7, Akira Kuwata4, Miwa Nakamachi4, Yuji Okazaki4, Takeshi Okunishi5, Kazuaki Tadokoro4, Hiroaki
Saito4 and Yasuhiro Yamanaka8,9,10
1

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Graduate School for Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
E-mail: kosei@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
Center for Marine Environmental Studies, Ehime University, 2-5 Bunkyo-cho, Matsuyama, 790-8577, Japan
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, 985-0001, Japan
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama, 236-8648, Japan
Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 116 Katsurakoi, Kushiro, 085-0802, Japan
Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 1551-8 Taira-machi, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan
Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Kita-Ku, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Japan Science and Technology Agency, Kawaguchi Center Bldg., 4-1-8 Honcho, Kawaguchi 332-0012, Japan

Interannual variations of lower-trophic-level (LTL) ecosystems in the western North Pacific were investigatedby a three-dimensional marine ecosystem model, 3D-eNEMURO, in order to clarify dynamical responses ofplankton and nutrients to the interanual changes of ocean physical fields, with a focus on mesoscale processes.
The 3D-eNEMURO consists of an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (C-HOPE) assimilated tosatellite SST/SSH by an adjoint scheme (TAMC) and a plankton functional LTL ecosystem model, eNEMURO.
The eNEMURO model is an extend version of NEMURO, which is a standard LTL model of PICES; theextension includes the microbial loop and divides compartments of zooplankton and phytoplankton. The
3D-eNEMURO model reproduced well the spatio-temporal variation of macronutrient concentration and zooand phytoplankton biomass for major species, in comparison with satellite sea surface chlorophyll by SeaWiFS
and in situ biogeochemical data (monitored by Fisheries Research Agency along three lines off Japan covering thesubarctic, subtropical, subarctic-subtropical transition and coastal regions and the continental shelf region in the
East China Sea). The 3D structures of ecosystems in the western North Pacific simulated by the 3D-eNEMURO
under realistic driving forces from 1993 to 2006 indicated significant impacts of the spatio-temporal variationsof physical fields frequently caused by mesoscale eddies. For example, ecosystems in the regions where theKuroshio and Kuroshio Extension (KE) flow changed drastically year after year under the influences of mesoscaledisturbances interacting with fluctuations of the Kuroshio and KE flow paths. The simulation, moreover, indicatedthe interannual variation of the plankton biomass is species specific especially in the Kuroshio/KE frontal region.

28 April, 17:00 (D2-6348)

Developing a modeling framework for basin scale models of marine ecosystems
Francisco E. Werner1, Peter H. Wiebe2 and Jonathan A. Hare3
1

23

Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, 71 Dudley Rd., Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA
E-mail: cisco@marine.rutgers.edu
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Redfield 2-26, MS#33, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USA
NOAA NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center, 28 Tarzwell Dr., Narragansett, RI, 02882, USA

The goal of the North Atlantic BASIN initiative is to understand and predict the impact of climate change on key
species of plankton and fish, and associated ecosystem and biogeochemical dynamics at the basin scale, including
the surrounding shelves. The modeling elements of BASIN include: (i) integration and interfacing across trophic
levels through the development of a suite of models that capture the relevant ecosystem and biogeochemical
dynamics on continental shelves and in the ocean basin; (ii) development of a common modeling environment
whereby models can be accessed transparently from collaborating institutions using diverse models and ensembles
can be developed and analyzed; (iii) establishment of an Ecological Model Intercomparison (ECOMIP) project
where the predictions of various ecological models and their relationships to data can be assessed; (iv) a 50year hindcast and analysis effort using data and data-assimilative hindcasts to study changes that occurred fromseasonal to decadal time scales; (v) future modeling scenarios including responses of the ocean with respect totemperature, salinity, currents, etc., that drive models of ocean biology and biogeochemistry, and (vi) Observing
190

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) used to optimize the design of field data acquisition across theNorth Atlantic basin. We discuss these elements as part of a proposed (http://web.pml.ac.uk/globec/structure/
multinational/basin/basin.htm) 10-year multidisciplinary program to improve the integrated understanding of the
dynamics of the marine ecosystems of the North Atlantic and produce tools to meet the future demands for an
ecological strategy for marine ecosystem management, in order to improve ocean management and conservation.

28 April, 17:15 (D2-6298)

A review of the NEMURO.FISH model application to marine ecosystem investigations
and its ability to evaluate responses of fish to future climate change
Michio J. Kishi1,2, Shin-ichi Ito3, Bernard A. Megrey4, Kenneth A. Rose5 and Francisco E. Werner6
1

2

4

5
6

The evolution of the NEMURO.FISH (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography,
For Including Saury and Herring) family of models to study marine ecosystems is reviewed. NEMURO
applications throughout the North Pacific have shown the models to be robust and to be able to reproduce 1, 2
and 3D components of nutrient, carbon cycle and biogeochemical cycles as well as aspects of lower trophic levels
ecosystem (phyto- and zooplankton). NEMURO.FISH includes higher trophic levels and can be run uncoupledor coupled to NEMURO. In the uncoupled mode, the growth and weight of an individual fish is computed
using plankton densities simulated by NEMURO but with no feedback between fish consumption and planktonmortality. In the coupled mode, the feeding, growth and weight of a representative fish are computed and preyremovals due to feeding by fish appear as mortality terms on the prey. The idea of NEMURO.FISH has been
applied not only to Pacific saury and herring but also to squid, salmon and the other fish. We review all appliedstudies including several examples examining fish responses to future climate change. We will discuss the abilityof NEMURO.FISH family models to evaluate fish responses to future climate change. Then, we will outline
perspectives for future end-to-end modeling efforts that can be used to study marine ecosystem in response to
global environmental change.

28 April, 17:30 (D2-6051)

A second generation online tool for exploring oceanographic connectivity
Scott Condie, Mark Hepburn, Jim Mansbridge and Phillip England
CSIRO Wealth from Oceans Flagship, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia. E-mail: scott.condie@csiro.au

Fish populations and their associated communities are connected in space and time under the influence of a rangeof physical and biological processes. Realized patterns of biological connectivity are painstaking to measure
or infer, requiring detailed taxonomic, ecological and genetic studies. A complimentary approach is to predictlikely dispersal from an understanding of oceanographic currents and the motility of organisms. We describe a
new generation of the online tool known as ConnIe (Connectivity Interface). Connie 2.0 uses archived currents
from data assimilating oceanographic models and particle tracking techniques to estimate connectivity statistics
from user-specified source regions (or to user-specified sink regions) over any period within the archive (presently
1992-2008). A range of biological behaviors can be specified including vertical migration, horizontal swimming,clinging to substrate, and formation of surface slicks. Ongoing developments include larval dependencies (e.g.
mortality, growth rate) on environmental variables (e.g. temperature, salinity, chlorophyll) and integration withother scientific or management tools (e.g. ecosystem models, reserve design tools). Options are also being
considered for using downscaled climate change scenarios within Connie to explore the implications of changing
connectivity patterns. The interface is based on modern Web technologies and uses an interactive Google-maps
style display familiar to most users.
191

D2

3

Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, N10 W5, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0810, Japan
E-mail: kishi@salmon.fish.hokudai.ac.jp
Ecosystem Change Research Program, Frontier Research Center for Global Change, 3173-25 Showamachi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama
City, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, Shinhamacho 3-27-5, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001 Japan
National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sandpoint Way NE, Bin C15700, Seattle, WA, 98115-0070,
USA
Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 17:45 (D2-6131)

Climate change induced decadal variations in hydrodynamic conditions in the Estonian
coastal waters and their possible influence on fish
Ülo Suursaar, Markus Vetemaa and Tiit Kullas
Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu, Mäealuse 10a, Tallinn, 12618, Estonia. E-mail: ulo.suursaar@ut.ee

Climate change influences marine ecosystems and fish via various links and mechanisms. Hydrodynamic processes
are an important link, but are rarely considered. In Northern Europe, recent climate change strongly manifests
as shifts in wind climatology and storminess, as well as increases in temperature. In the semi-enclosed andpractically tideless Baltic Sea, climate change induced variations in hydrodynamic conditions include enhanced
seasonal signal and contrasting trends in sea level, more higher and frequent storm surges and wave storms,
seasonal increases in turbidity, and redistribution of bottom sediment. Changes in thermohaline and oxygen
conditions in the shallow spawning and nursery areas are frequently governed by shifts in wind-driven flow
patterns, hydrological fronts and upwelling zones. This study is based on meteorological and sea level data fromthe Estonian weather and tide gauge stations (since 1923), as well as on hydrodynamic modelling experimentswith the shallow sea 2D model and wave hindcast for the period 1966-2008. The wave model was calibrated andcurrents, thermohaline and turbidity were studied on the basis of 18-month measurements with the RDCP. The
study includes an analysis of the most important hydrodynamic regime shifts in the Estonian coastal waters anddiscussion on their possible influences on fish. The latter is based on the historical data of catches, as well as on
observation results of littoral species. However, as the data on fish are more strongly influenced by catch (andfishing), the preliminary results, apart from conceptual connections, show just a few and local relationships.

28 April, 18:00 (D2-6384)

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and marine food webs in the northern California Current:
Variations in source waters which feed the California Current may be the mechanism
which links climate change with ecosystem response
William T. Peterson1, Hongsheng Bi2,3, Cheryl A. Morgan2 and Edmundo Casillas1
1

2
3

NOAA-Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR, 97365, USA
E-mail: bill.peterson@noaa.gov
Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Oregon State University, Newport, OR, 97365, USA
University of Maryland, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, MD, USA

Analysis of hydrographic and zooplankton data collected fortnightly in the coastal upwelling zone off Oregon
for the past 14 years and historical observations from the 1970s ands 1980s have shown that variations in sea
surface temperature, salinity, copepod biodiversity, species richness and community structure are correlated with
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When the PDO is negative (as during the 1970s, 1999-2002 and 2008-2009),
cold salty waters from the Gulf of Alaska feed the northern California Current (NCC) and transport large, lipidrich copepods to the shelf waters of the NCC; when the PDO is positive (as in 2003-2007), warm fresher watersfrom offshore and south feed the NCC and transport small, oceanic lipid-poor copepods to the coast. Thus thebasin-scale variations in winds that drive the PDO result in changes in transport that in turn control local foodchain structure. These changes in food chain structure correlate with (and predict) salmon returns to the ColumbiaRiver. We use altimeter data to show that changes in phase of the PDO are accompanied by changes in source
waters which feed the NCC. We argue that to examine how the coastal upwelling ecosystem of the NCC might
react to a climate change scenarios, we will need a better understanding of how basin-scale winds and variations ingyre circulation patterns impact source waters which feed the NCC. A combination of ROMS and GCMs should
allow examination of future states of the PDO and of regional variations in source waters that feed the NCC.

192

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

28 April, 18:15 (D2-6388)

An application of the ethno-oceanographic framework to study global change issues off
the South Brazil Bight with remote-sensing data
Maria A. Gasalla1, O. Sato2 and P.S. Polito2
12

Fisheries Ecosystems Laboratory, Instituto Oceanográfico, University of São Paulo, 055080-900 São Paulo, Brazil
E-mail: mgasalla@usp.br
Satellite Oceanography Laboratory, Instituto Oceanográfico, University of São Paulo, Brazil

193

D2

An oriented ethno-oceanographic approach was applied to outline hypotheses of change in the ocean off theSoutheast Brazil shelf. Based on a fishers’ oceanological knowledge-based analysis (FOK), which took into
consideration different categories of fishers, new hypotheses on ocean shifts were tested with satellite-based,spatially-explicit time-series. The joint analysis of questionnaires responses from different surveys dealing withfisher’s perceptions of change allowed comparison of different fisher’s categories and fishing areas. Fishers
exploring different ocean zones have perceived some opposite trends of change. The attempt of correlating fishers’
perceptions with scientific hypotheses was based on an observational data search procedure. In-situ evidences ofchange in sea temperature, winds intensity, rainfall, and correlation with climatic indexes were obtained. Further
explanations of change were derived from available knowledge on the South Atlantic oceanography. A userbased process appeared to contribute especially in data-poor ecosystems. A collaborative approach can be used
to establish interdisciplinary dialogue in climate change studies and can be followed by available modern ocean
science tools.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

D2 Posters
D2-6093 (Cancelled)

Climate change and the ecosystem response in the South China Sea: Observations andnumerical investigations
Hui Wang1, Guimei Liu1, Fei Chai2, Xingyu Song3 and Shan Gao1
1
2
3

National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, 100081, PR China. E-mail: wangh@nmefc.gov.cn
University of Maine, School of Marine Sciences, 5706 Aubert Hall, Orono, ME, 04469, USA
South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, 510301, PR China

Climate change may induce changes in the structure and functioning of marine plankton and hence on fish
and fisheries. The responses of ecosystems to perturbations are difficult to predict because they result fromcomplex interactions among the ecosystem components. In this presentation, the changes of primary productivity
associated with pentad outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), East Asia Monsoon index, pentad rainfall, and Sea
Level Anomaly (SLA) are analyzed based on the meteorological data, observational data and satellite data in
the SCS. A Pacific basin-wide physical-biogeochemical model is developed and used to investigate physicalvariations and ecosystem responses. The Pacific basin-wide circulation model, based on the Regional Ocean
Model Systems (ROMS), is forced with daily air-sea fluxes derived from the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis between 1990 and 2004. The biogeochemical processes consist of multiple nutrientsand plankton functional groups and detailed carbon cycle dynamics. The ROMS-CoSINE model is capable ofreproducing many observed features and their variability in the SCS. The regional difference of Chl-a, in relation
to local environmental conditions, is also investigated. The monsoon-driven upwelling and meso-scale eddies
likely determine the Chl-a differences locally. The results and analysis showed that the Chl-a in the SCS respondto the climatic variability.

D2-6104

Variability of the biotic material flow divergence patterns of the Azores
Aleksey V. Koldunov
Laboratory of Regional Oceanography, St. Petersburg State University, 33-35 Line of Vasilievsky Island, St. Petersburg, 199178, Russia
E-mail: koldunovaleksey@gmail.com

This study uses an original method for detecting biotic fronts. Contrary to the traditional consideration of frontal
zone as an area of maximal gradients, our approach applies a simple theory: biotic fronts appear in convergenceareas. From this simple idea, a biotic frontal zone may be treated as a locality where the substance flow divergenceis less than zero, i.e. convergence zone. Accordingly, a biotic front will be the line of maximal convergence. Fields
of primary production and ocean currents in the vicinity of the Azores are used to estimate fields of the substanceflow divergence and to discover biotic frontal zones. The first clearly expressed front at north-west off the Azores
coincides with a zone of higher mean values of primary production and of very rich blooms, as well with an area
where advection and turbulent diffusion are most developed. The second frontal zone lies to the east and south off
the Azores. The southern end of front coincides with area of the earliest bloom in January-February. Comparing
the obtained results and the geostrophic current fields calculated by AVISO data shows that the north-western
frontal zone is confined to an area occupied by southern branch of the North Atlantic Current. Weak divergences
at 40-41°N and 28-30°W correspond to a certain “rupture” in North Atlantic Current’s Southern Branch, where
current speed decreases from 10 to 6 cm/s, but beyond the front it again rises up to 9 cm/s.

194

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesD2-6177

Potential impact of global warming on North Pacific spring blooms projected by an eddypermitting 3-D ocean ecosystem model
Taketo Hashioka1,2, Takashi T. Sakamoto1, Hiroshi Sumata3, Takeshi Okunishi4, Masahito Shigemitsu3, Maki N.
Aita1, Naoki Yoshie5, Naosuke Okada3, Akio Ishida1,2 and Yasuhiro Yamanaka1,2,3
1

2

3
4

5

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
E-mail: hashioka@jamstec.go.jp
Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology (CREST) / Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), 4-1-8 Honcho,
Kawaguchi-shi, Japan
Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5 Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0810, Japan
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa,236-8648, Japan
Center for Marine Environmental Studies, Ehime University, 2-5 Bunkyo-cho, Matsuyama, Ehime, 790-8577, Japan

D2-6192

One dimensional ecosystem model in the northern Japan Sea based on an operational
ocean forecast system
Tatsuro Watanabe1, Katsumi Takayama1, Hideyuki Kawamura2 and Iori Tanaka3
1
2

3

Japan Sea National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, Niigata, 951-8121, Japan. E-mail: tatsuro@fra.affrc.go.jp
Research Group for Environmental Science, Nuclear Science and Engineering Directorate, Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai-mura,319-1195, Japan
Hokkaido Central Fisheries Experiment Station, Yoichi, 946-8555, Japan

Based on an operational ocean forecast system for the Japan Sea, a one dimension lower trophic ecosystem model
called the NEMURO (Kishi et al., 2007) was applied for understanding seasonal and vertical variations of the
primary production in the northern Japan Sea. The daily mean of the vertical structure of the temperature and thevertical diffusion coefficient in the area at latitude 41-43ºN and longitude 137-139ºE, calculated from 2003 to 2008,
was provided to the ecosystem model from the ocean forecast system including data assimilation of SST, SSH
and CTD. As a result, the ecosystem model showed realistic vertical distributions and their seasonal variationsof nitrate, phytoplankton and zooplankton. Though there was few available observation data for the validationin the northern Japan Sea, the long-term bimonthly observations, which were carried by the Hokkaido Central
Fisheries Experiment Station, were used for the validation. In particular, on the distribution of the phytoplankton,
our ecosystem model well reproduced the typical feature of the seasonal variations in the northern Japan Sea. The
spring bloom occurred with approximately 1.5x10-6 molN/l in early April from the surface to the depth of 50m.
Subsequently the subsurface maximum formed at the depth of 40m and it became deeper slowly to the depth of
60m until fall. In late November, the weak fall bloom occurred in the surface layer.

195

D2

We developed an eddy-permitting version (i.e., horizontal grid-spacing of 0.28° (zonally) × 0.19° (meridionally))of our 3-D ecosystem model, COCO-NEMURO (the CCSR Ocean Component Model coupled with the North
Pacific Ecosystem Model Used for Regional Oceanography), and applied it to the surface 1500 m in the western
North Pacific (about 110°E-180°, 10-60°N) with an offline calculation method. Using this model with a projected
physical environment from a high-resolution climate model (the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate,
MIROC, version 3.2), we explored the potential impact of global warming on spring blooms in the western North
Pacific. We focused on statistically significant signals compared with natural variability. Considering 2xCO2
conditions, maximum biomass during the spring bloom is found to occur 10 to 20 days earlier due to strengthened
stratification. In the subarctic region, the bloom decreases in magnitude relative to pre-industrial simulation.
However, in the northern part of the Kuroshio extension region where photosynthesis is not strongly limited bynutrients, the maximum biomass increases by 20 to 40% associated with rising temperatures, even though theannually averaged biomass slightly decreases. Our results reveal that even if global warming weakly affects
annually averaged quantities, it could strongly affect certain species and biogeochemical processes which dependon seasonal events such as blooms. We will also present the preliminarily results of our new ecosystem model
which explicitly represents iron cycles.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

D2-6256

Dynamics of lower-trophic-level ecosystems in the western North Pacific simulated by ahigh resolution 3D ecosystem model
Naoki Yoshie1, Kosei Komatsu2, Shin-ichi Ito3, Takahiko Kameda4, Tsuneo Ono5, Kiyotaka Hidaka4, Toru
Hasegawa6, Akira Kuwata3, Miwa Nakamachi3, Yuji Okazaki3, Takeshi Okunishi4, Kazuaki Tadokoro3, Hiroaki
Saito3 and Yasuhiro Yamanaka7,8,9
1

2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Center for Marine Environmental Studies, Ehime University, 2-5 Bunkyo-cho, Matsuyama, 790-8577, Japan
E-mail: nyoshie@sci.ehime-u.ac.jp
Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, 985-0001, Japan
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-8648, Japan
Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 116 Katsurakoi, Kushiro, 085-0802, Japan
Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 1551-8 Taira-machi, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan
Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Japan Science and Technology Agency, Kawaguchi Center Bldg., 4-1-8 Honcho, Kawaguchi, 332-0012, Japan

Spatiotemporal variations of the lower-trophic-level marine ecosystem in the western North Pacific were
investigated by a marine ecosystem model. The goal of this modeling was to understanding of mechanisms anddeveloping prediction skills of ecosystem responses to climate changes. We developed a plankton functional
types model eNEMURO, which was an extended version of NEMURO (a standard lower-trophic-level marine
ecosystem model of PICES) by introducing the microbial food web and dividing diatoms to two compartments
according to temperature dependency. eNEMURO was coupled with an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation
model (C-HOPE, horizontal resolution: 1/16º) assimilated to satellite altimetry and sea-surface-temperature by
TAMC method. We applied 3D eNEMURO to the western North Pacific from 1998 to 2006, and compared themodel outputs with biogeochemical and ecological data observed at three seasonally repeated monitoring lines ofFisheries Research Agency Japan (A-line including the subarctic region [Oyashio region] and subarctic-subtropicaltransition region [Oyashio-Kuroshio transition region], O-line including the subtropical region across the Kuroshio
current, and CK-line including the continental shelf region in the East China Sea). The biological parameters ofeNEMURO were tuned for reproducing plankton and nutrient dynamics in those quite different ecological regions
using 0D (box) eNEMURO. The results of 3D eNEMURO with new tuned parameters showed high performance
to reproduce the distributions and variabilities of the plankton biomasses and nutrient concentrations with eddy
to synoptic spatial and week to interannual time scales. We will continue to carry out further investigation to
elucidate the mechanism of lower-trophic-level ecosystem responses to the climate forcings.

D2-6277

The impact of density-dependent processes on geographical distribution of Japanesesardine (Sardinops melanostictus)
Takeshi Okunishi1, Shin-ichi Ito2, Naoki Yoshie3, Taketo Hashioka4, Hiroshi Sumata5 and Yasuhiro Yamanaka4,5
1

2
3
4
5

National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 2368648, Japan. E-mail: okunishi@affrc.go.jp
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan
Center for Marine Environmental Studies, Ehime University, Japan
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Graduate School of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, N10W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan

Population fluctuations of small pelagic fishes, such as sardine and anchovy, are related to climate change.
Density-dependent effects in small pelagic fishes often affect their growth and distribution and the lower trophic
ecosystem. To represent the density-dependent effects as two-way interaction between the Japanese sardine andthe lower trophic ecosystem, we developed a multi-trophic level ecosystem model including Japanese sardine bycoupling physical, biochemical-plankton and fish models. The fish model used individual-based modeling (IBM)techniques. Lagrangian particles (fish) of the IBM represent members of the sardine population, and the affects
phytoplankton and zooplankton densities through feeding can be tracked. In the model, fish movement is assumed
to be controlled by feeding and spawning migrations with passive transport by ocean currents. Feeding migration
is assumed to be governed by searching for local optimal habitats of fish. The model was implemented underscenarios of high and low standing stocks of Japanese sardine, and results were compared between scenarios with196

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
regard to both growth and distribution. An increase in the area occupied by adult sardine at the high stocks was found.
This result appears to provide support for the hypothesis of density-dependent habitat selection. Age 0 fish showedslower growth rate under the high stocks in summer because forage density decreases from high grazing pressures ofadult sardine. The effect of density dependence among lower trophic levels and fish seems to be one of the most importantfactors which determine the geographical distribution of adult sardine and growth of young sardine.

D2-6322

Interannual to decadal modulations of high frequency eddies in the Kuroshio-Oyashio
confluence zone in a high-resolution CGCM with ocean data assimilation
Hiroaki Tatebe1, Masayoshi Ishii1,2, Masahide Kimoto3, Takashi T. Sakamoto1, Yoshiki Komuro1 and Takashi
Mochizuki1
1

3

D2

2

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
E-mail: tatebe@jamstec.go.jp
Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0002, Japan
Center for Climate System Research, The University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba, 277-8568, JapanFor predicting a near-term climate up to year 2030, decadal hindcast/forecast experiments are in progress usinga System for Prediction and Assimilation by MIROC (SPAM). The global coupled atmosphere-ocean model
MIROC has an eddy-permitting oceanic component with 1/4° x 1/6° horizontal resolution and an atmosphericcomponent with horizontal resolution of T213 spectral truncation (about 60 km). For initialization, historicalocean subsurface data are assimilated into the ocean model. Eddies in the model are filtered out in calculating
analysis increment in the assimilation procedures. This approach is used to assimilate only basin-scale and longterm variations resolved in the observational data and to generate high-frequency eddies physically in response
to background currents and hydrographic structures. In the preliminary experiment, where an older version of
MIROC for IPCC AR4 is used and the data assimilation is started at 1990, the interannual to decadal modulationsof high frequency eddy activities observed in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence zone (KO zone) are reproduced.
The eddies in the KO zone are known to play an important role in transporting nutrient, large zooplanktons, etc.
in the subarctic North Pacific to the subtropics. The reproducibility and maybe predictability of the long-term
modulations of the eddy activities in the KO zone contribute to progress in forecasting changes in fisheries andcatches of various pelagic fishes, such as Japanese sardines and Pacific sauries.

D2-6337

MIROC4.0 – A high-resolution AOGCM for the near-term climate prediction
Takashi T. Sakamoto1, Yoshiki Komuro1, Masayoshi Ishii2,1, Hiroaki Tatebe1, Akira Hasegawa3, Hideo Shiogama3,
Takahiro Toyoda1, Masato Mori4, Seita Emori3,1,4, Hiroyasu Hasumi4 and Masahide Kimoto4
1

2
3
4

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-0001, Japan
E-mail: teng@jamstec.go.jp
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0052, Japan
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan
Center for Climate System Research, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba, Japan

Preliminary results are presented from the general circulation climate model, Model for Interdisciplinary Researchon Climate (MIROC) version 4.0. The model was developed by the Center for Climate System Research (CCSR),
the University of Tokyo; National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES); and Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology (JAMSTEC). The atmospheric component is T213 spectrum model (~60 km mesh),and the ocean component is an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model whose horizontal resolution is0.28125° zonally and 0.1875° meridionally. Using this model, 50 years spin-up and 70 years control experiments
were conducted under the condition of year 1950 without flux adjustment. Biases in the SST field, typically warm
bias in high-latitudes and cold bias in low and mid-latitudes, are reduced in MIROC4.0, especially in the Northern
Hemisphere. There are still drifts in the globally averaged ocean temperature and salinity, but these drifts are
smaller than the previous version of the MIROC (MIROC3.2_hires). Simulated ENSO signal and its related SST,
precipitation, SLP in the model are improved from the MIROC3.2_hires. The spatial distribution of PDO is also
improved. We will con­duct near-term climate prediction experiments for the coming decades to contribute to
CMIP5 and IPCC AR5.
197

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

GP General Poster Session
GP-5783

Kuroshio System – The quasi-cyclic dynamics and the bifurcation from the source to the
Shatskikiy hills
Vladimir B. Darnitskiy and Maxim A. Ishchenko
V.I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute (POI), FEB RAS, 43 Baltiyskaya St., Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray, 690041, Russia
E-mail: maksim@poi.dvo

GP-6084

Contrasting pattern of genetic differentiation between two Antarctic Channinchthyidae
fish species at the West Antarctic Peninsula
Chiara Papetti1, Mario La Mesa2, Jennifer Rock3, Esteban Barrera-Oro4,5, Tomaso Patarnello1,6 and Lorenzo Zane1
1
2
3
4
5
6

Department of Biology, University of Padova - via G. Colombo, 3 – 35121, Padova, Italy. E-mail: chiara.papetti@unipd.it
Institute of Marine Science (CNR-ISMAR), Marine Fishery Section-Largo Fiera della Pesca, 1, Ancona (An), 60125, Italy
Molecular Ecology and Fisheries Genetics Laboratory, School of Biological Sciences, University of Wales, Bangor, LL57 2UW, UK
Instituto Antártico Argentino, Cerrito 1248, Buenos Aires, A1010AAZ, Argentina
Museo Argentino de Ciencias Naturales “Bernardino Rivadavia”, División Ictiología, Angel Gallardo 470, Buenos Aires, CI405DJR, Argentina
Department of Public Health, Comparative Pathology and Veterinary Hygiene, University of Padova - viale dell’Università 16,
Agripolis, Legnaro (PD), 35020, Italy

A comparative population genetics study was conducted on two Antarctic Channichthyidae fish species,
Chionodraco rastrospinosus and Chaenocephalus aceratus, which shows similar ecology and partiallyoverlapping distribution ranges in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), therefore experiencing a common water
circulation pattern dominated by the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from west to east. The two species exhibit
a strikingly different pattern in their population genetics in samples collected from comparable sites. Whereas
C. rastrospinosus appears to be panmictic, C. aceratus showed a clear genetic differentiation among samples.
Our findings suggest that, in addition to ocean circulation and larval dispersal, other major factors might bedriving connectivity. The contrasting genetic pattern found could be attributable to differences in behavior, subtle
differences in the dispersion potential of adults, and to buoyancy features. Moreover, the differences in genetic
diversity could be caused, in part, by variability in patterns of water circulation at small spatio-temporal scales,
which might be further enhanced by global warming. Large-scale global warming events may influence ocean
and marine fauna of the WAP continental shelf by reducing suitable habitats and changing ecological dynamics.
Long-term effects might include strong inter-annual variability in the recruitment and growth of both pelagic and

199

GP

An adequate assessment of the ocean’s role in the formation of weather and short-period oscillations of the Earth’s
climate requires knowledge of current ocean conditions and their variability. Knowledge of these processes
is needed to develop sustainable strategies for using biological resources of the oceans. The purpose of thiscommunication is an attempt to assess the variability of the Kuroshio main stream at different locations ranging
from the origins of the Kuroshio on Taiwan, to regions along the Ryukyu ridge and Archipelago of Japan andpartly in the North-West Pacific from Japan to upland Shatskikiy rise. The data used consisted of an information
contained in the TINRO, FERHRI, and POI FEB RAS databases and the archive of Levitus (2006). The
amplitudes of variability of the thermohaline parameters were calculated in 5° squares to a depth of 600 meters
as described previously by Darnitsky and Ishchenko (2008). The area of bifurcation of the main Kuroshio jet
was analyzed from the source to the Shatskikiy hills. In Izu Ridge and the area of jet separation from the coast ofJapan near the cluster of Kashima seamounts we studied the influence of bottom topography on the inter-annual
dynamics of the thermohaline parameters and the amplitude of the intermediate layer of salinity minimum (500m horizon). A nonlinear approximation of the series (1960-2000 years) showed medium-and long-term trends
in temperature amplitudes variability in the various sectors of the Kuroshio system. Interdecadal cycles near thesouthern and eastern coast of Japan were studied previously (Darnitsky, Ishchenko, 2008). Satellite imagery
was used fragmentarily, as well as information on the trajectories of Argo buoys. Internal dynamics of the West
Subtropical Circulation, as is done in previous work (Darnitsky, Pokudov, 1995) will also be addressed.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheriesbenthic organisms. While organisms are adapted to historical levels of such variability, they might not be able tocope with a significant increase in the frequency of years of low recruitment or slow growth, likely resulting in an
alarming loss of genetic variability and decreases in effective and absolute population sizes.

GP-6134

The influence of seawater temperature on sandeel stock in Ise Bay
Minoru Tomiyama1 and Teruhisa Komatsu2
1

2

Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Aichi Prefectural Office, Nagoya, Aichi, 460-8501, Japan
E-mail: minoru_tomiyama@pref.aichi.lg.jp
Ocean Research Institute, The University Tokyo, 1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku, Tokyo, 164-8639, Japan

Japanese sandeel (Ammodytes personatus) is one of the most important bio-resources in Ise Bay (central Honshu
Island, Japan) Most abundant in early spring; the Japanese sandeel plays a dominant ecological role in the Isle
Bay fish fauna year-round. This study examined the influence of water temperature on sandeel population in Ise
Bay by analyzing the relationship between water temperature and year class strength of the sandeel estimated by
De Lury’s method in Ise Bay from 1995 to 2001. There was a negative correlation between water temperatureexperienced in January, just a few weeks after the hatching of sandeel eggs, and the year class strength of sandeel
in Isle Bay (higher water temperature in early spring was related to weaker year strength of sandeel). Growth ofJapanese sandeel (23.7 - 38.4 mm body length) was investigated based on growth trajectories of individual larvae
recorded in otolith rings. Results showed that high temperature was related to both a high growth rate and a low
reproductive (Offspring/Spawner) rate. Since sandeel bury themselves during high water temperature in summer
to conserve energy, the start of this aestivation period becomes earlier with increasing seawater temperature. It
is concluded that global warming will have negative effects on the sandeel population in Ise Bay, a region that isclose to the southern limit of the latitudinal distribution of this species in northern hemisphere.

GP-6193

Climate change and fisheries in Chile
Eleuterio Yáñez and María Angela Barbieri
Escuela de Ciencias del Mar, Facultad de Recursos Naturales, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, P.O. Box 1020, Valparaíso,
Chile. E-mail: eyanez@ucv.cl

The possible effects of climate change on the Chilean marine ecosystems are considered. Efforts to establish
relationships between the abundance of exploited species, fishing effort and environmental variables are alsosuggested. Finally, conceptual models for an ecosystem management of the fisheries, as well as indications on thenecessity to evaluate the fisheries behaviour, given the climate change scenario, are suggested.

GP-6204

Chlorophyll a concentration dynamics due climate change and its possible impact onpelagic fishes at Java and Bali, Indonesia: Case study in 2006
Aida Sartimbul1, Hideaki Nakata2 and Erfan Rohadi3
12
3Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences; Center of Environmental Studies, University of Brawijaya, Jalan Veteran, Malang 65145,
Indonesia. E-mail: aida@brawijaya.ac.id, aidasartimbul@yahoo.com
Faculty of Fisheries, Nagasaki University, 1-14 Bunkyo-machi, Nagasaki, 852-8521, Japan
Department of Management Informatics, State Polytechnic of Malang, Jalan Sukarno Hatta, Malang, 65145, Indonesia

Chlorophyll a concentration dynamics in 2003 to 2008 were studied at Java (South of Java Sea) and Bali (BaliStrait and Coast of Bali) using Aqua-Modis satellite data. Together with Catch per Unit Effort (CpUE) of somepelagic fishes, Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and climate change parameters (Niño 3.4 and IOD), their possible
relationship were analyzed. The result show that the recent warming is not significantly impact on increasing SST
but more intensively occurring unpredictable phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian
Ocean Dipole (IOD). The chlorophyll a anomalies significantly increase above normal for three areas at Java200

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
and Bali coincide with upwelling process due to the drop of SST during ENSO and IOD in 2006. Significantly
increase of chlorophyll a in 2006 has led the productivity of some pelagic fishes at three areas of study. There isunlagged respond between chlorophyll a and SST, however lagged response between chlorophyll a and CpUE of somepelagic fishes as follows: four-months lagged between chlorophyll a and CpUE Sardinella lemuru at Bali Strait,
five-months lagged between chlorophyll a and CpUE Sardinella lemuru at the coast of Bali, and seven-months
lagged between chlorophyll a and CpUE Thunnus albacores at South of Java Sea. Increasing chlorophyll a isfollowed by increasing catch of Sardinella lemuru four and five months later at Bali Strait and the coast of Bali
respectively, while Thunnus albacores seven-months later at South of Java Sea.

GP-6205

The implication of oceanographic and meteorological factors on algae blooming eventsand possible impact on the Sardinella lemuru fishery along the coast of Bali, Indonesia
Oky Rosita Tanjung, Aida Sartimbul and Anthon Efani
Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, Universitas Brawijaya, Jalan Veteran, Malang, 65145, Indonesia
E-mail: aida@brawijaya.ac.id; aidasartimbul@yahoo.com

GP-6206

Biological aspects and population dynamics of mud crab (Scylla serrata) in the mangrove
area of Curah Sawo, Probolinggo, Indonesia
Sary Rahmawati, Aida Sartimbul and Daduk Setyohadi
Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, Universitas Brawijaya, Jalan Veteran, Malang, 65145, Indonesia
E-mail: aida@brawijaya.ac.id; aidasartimbul@yahoo.com

A study on the biological aspects and population dynamics of mud crab (Scylla serrata) was conducted from May
to September 2009 in the mangrove area of Curah Sawo, Probolinggo, Indonesia. The aim of this research is toestimate the biological and growth parameters, recruitment patterns, mortality rates, and exploitation status of
mud crab in this area. A total of 287 mud crabs were captured in 5 sample taken with. The crabs had a negative
allometric correlation of length and weight with a growth rate coeficient of 1.3 per year. This crab is assumed tospawn in June and July, as the highest percentage of maturity was in June, while in August there were crabs thatwere in spent condition. Length of the mud crab in the first capture (Lc) was longer than the length in the first
gonad mature (Lm). On the other hand, natural maturity rates of the mud crab are higher than fishing mortality.
Using the FISAT (Fish Stock Assessment Tools) program, it can be assumed that the status of the mud crab fishery,based on its exploitation rate value (E = 0.15), is still underfished, and its exploitation level, based on Yield per
Recruit, is only about 1.2%.

201

GP

A mass mortality event on pelagic species occurs almost every four years along the coast of Bali. This event has
been triggered by algae blooms due to climate change during recent decades. Therefore, the aim of this study
is to understand the implication of oceanographic and meteorological factors on algae blooms along the coastof Bali. Time series (2003-2008) of chlorophyll a concentration, sea surface temperature (SST), Indian Ocean
Dipole (IOD), precipitation, wind speed, and air pressure were analyzed together using multivariate analysis
such as the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) after experienced anomaly analysis. The results show that thedominant factors affecting blooming algae along the coast of Bali are ordered as follows: chlorophyll a, SST, IOD,
precipitation, wind speed and air pressure. There is a lagged response between chlorophyll a and Catch per Unit
Effort (CpUE) of Sardinella lemuru where increasing chlorophyll a is followed by increasing CpUE Sardinella
lemuru five months later. There is a significant relationship between chlorophyll a and the five-month lagged
CpUE Sardinella lemuru anomalies, as shown by r = 0.535 with p < 0.05.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

GP-6326

Biological studies of the oval squid Sepioteuthis lessoniana population in northern Taiwan
Chia-Hui Wang and Hui-Lun Chen
Earth Dynamic System Research Center, National Cheng Kung University, 1 University Rd., Tainan 704, Taiwan, ROC
E-mail: chwang@mail.ncku.edu.tw

The present study aims to describe the biology of the oval squid (Sepioteuthis lessoniana Lesson, 1830) aroundthe northern Taiwan coastal area. Samples of S. lessoniana were collected monthly from June 2007 to January
2008. The morphological parameters and maturity stages were examined and statoliths were extracted fordaily age and growth analyses. From 226 specimens of S. lessoniana collected, there were 50.5 % females and49.6 %, giving a sex ratio of 1:1.01 (F: M). The dorsal mantle lengths of both sexes varied between 60-263 mm
and the total body weight ranged between 27–1337 g. Mature males had a larger size range than females. The
frequency distributions of maturity stages from different months showed that males are mature during most of
the sampling months, while females showed higher maturities in late spring and winter months. The statolithincrement numbers for females and males ranged from 81-229 and 83-207 days respectively, with females having
a wider range of ages. The hatching date of each squid was back calculated from the sampling date and thenumber of statolith increments with the results showing that hatching occurred throughout most of the year for the
S. lessoniana population in north Taiwan, with a peak season in spring. Chemical compositions of statoliths werealso analyzed in order to trace their larval origin.

GP-6327

Forecasting models in the recruitment of Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, inthe northwestern Pacific, incorporating environmental conditions and evaluations ofmanagement effects
Kazumi Sakuramoto1, Satomi Shimoyama2 and Naoki Suzuki1
1
2

Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Konan, Minato, Tokyo, 108-8477, Japan. E-mail: sakurak@kaiyodai.ac.jp
Survey Research Center Co. Ltd., Nishi-Nippori, Arakawa, Tokyo, 116-8581, Japan

We investigated the relationships between environmental conditions and fluctuations in the recruitment of Japanesesardine, Sardinops melanostictus, in the northwestern Pacific. Stock–recruitment relationships were estimatedbased on Ricker, Beverton–Holt, power, linear, and proportional models. The error terms of the stock–recruitment
relationship were assumed to follow normal or log-normal distributions. We calculated the correlation coefficients
between environmental factors and residuals by subtracting estimated values from those observed. The correlation
coefficients were calculated using two different datasets: the entire dataset (1976–2004) and the entire dataset
minus data from 1988–1991, when crucial failures in recruitment occurred. Analysis of the full dataset yieldeda greater number of environmental factors with significant correlation coefficients than did analysis of the partial
dataset. We then constructed recruitment forecasting models incorporating environmental factors. Using thesemodels, we evaluated the effect of fishing for various fishing intensities. The results indicate that the crucial
failures in recruitment during 1988–1991 can be explained by environmental factors (e.g., Arctic Oscillation,
Pacific Decadal Oscillation, sea surface temperature of the southern area of the Kuroshio Extension), especiallythose factors that occurred during the spawning season, which are critical in terms of population fluctuations.
The recruitment forecasting models performed well in estimating the observed recruitment. After 1991, whenrecruitment levels were very low, it became difficult for recruitment to recover to the levels of the 1980s; however,if the fishing intensity had exceeded the present-day revel, recruitment would have suffered even greater declines.

202

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

GP-6332

Effect of measurement errors on model selection in analyses of the stock–recruitment
relationship
Naoki Suzuki and Kazumi Sakuramoto
Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, Konan, 4-5-7 Minato, Tokyo 108-8477, Japan. E-mail: naoki@kaiyodai.ac.jp

In the case that measurement errors are incorporated in recruitment R and spawning stock biomass SSB, we
examined which model performs best in the proportional, linear, Ricker and Beverton–Holt (B-H) models forpredicting the stock–recruitment relationship. We employed error terms normally or log-normally distributed with
20% or 60% of coefficient of variation CV. On the assumption that the Ricker, B–H or proportional models were
the true stock–recruitment relationship, Monte Carlo simulations were conducted 1000 times for four models.
The optimal model was selected with c-AIC (ﬁnite correction of Akaike information criterion). Reproductive
success RPS (R/SSB) was tested by incorporating measurement errors in SSB and R when true RPS was constant.
In the case that the Ricker or B–H model was selected as the optimum model, the probability that the model waserroneously selected was 53% for measurement errors log-normally distributed with 60% of CV. In the case thatthe proportional model was selected as the optimum model, however, this probability was 0%. Although RPS was
assumed to be constant, the simulation trial frequency that the slope of RPS to SSB was significantly estimated was
70–99% under the condition that measurement error of SSB was high (CV = 60%). This study indicates a highprobability that the estimated Ricker or B–H model was erroneously selected in the case that measurement errors
were incorporated in R and SSB. Furthermore, the possibility would exist that RPS was under-estimated for high
SSB and over-estimated for low SSB.

GP

GP-6369

Fishery-induced changes on the reproductive cycle of two small pelagic fish off central Chile
Luis A. Cubillos1, Leonardo R. Castro2 and Gabriel Claramunt3
1
2
3

Doctorado en Oceanografía, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile. E-mail: lucubillos@udec.cl
Laboratorio de Oceanografía Pesquera y Ecología Larval, Universidad de Concepción, Concepción, Chile
Departamento de Ciencias del Mar, Universidad Arturo Prat, Iquique

Two small pelagic fishes, the common sardine, Strangomera bentincki, and the anchovy, Engraulis ringens,are commercially important fish resources for artisanal and industrial fishermen operating off central Chile(33°S-40°S). The reproductive strategy appears to be similar for both the species, and because they are similarin size, they tend to aggregate in mixed schools, and coexist in the same reproductive and feeding coastal habitat.
However, important demographic effects on the reproductive cycle have been described. Larger females ofcommon sardine (repeat spawners) have a reproductive peak earlier in the season than younger first time spawners,
while larger anchovy have a delay in the reproductive peak compared with first-time spawners. In this paper
fishery-induced demographic effects on the seasonal reproductive cycle are analyzed. The fishing effort is intenseand concentrated on the juvenile fraction of the stock, and is thus dependent on the annual recruitment pulse. The
fishery tends to remove the fast-growing fish, and the size/age structure becomes truncated. For the sardine itis possible that the fishery tends to select slower growing fish early in the season, thus altering the reproductive
cycle. The anchovy appears to be less impacted by heavy fishing pressure than the sardine, because the durationand intensity of spawning is greater. The consequences of the fishery-induced changes are observed directly in
the gonadosomatic index and in the spatial pattern of spawning. These changes may enhance the sensitivity of thecommon sardine population to climatic variability.

203

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

GP-6410

Measurements of NO3 saturation in the Japan Sea by in situ and hydrochemical methods
Dmitry D. Kaplunenko, Vyacheslav B. Lobanov, Alexander Yu. Lazaryuk, Pavel Ya. Tishchenko and Vladimir
A. Zvalinsky
V.I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological Institute (POI), FEBRAS, 43 Baltiyskaya St., Vladivostok, 690041, Russia. E-mail: dimkap@poi.dvo.ru

The continuous measurement of seawater-dissolved components, such a nutrients and organic materials, is an
important task for ecosystem management. In this matter, the In Situ Ultraviolet Spectrophotometer (ISUS)
designed by Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) and manufactured by Satlantic (MBARI ISUS)
is a unique device which allows one to collect in situ data on the concentration of components (nitrates, nitrites,
bisulfides, bromides, iodides, thiosulfate and other organic material which can absorb ultraviolet light) dissolvedin the seawater. The MBARI ISUS instrument model V3 has been successfully used for the detection of nitrateconcentration in the Japan Sea during the cruise of the R/V Akademik M.A. Lavrentyev from July 3-20, 2009. Oneof the goals of this cruise was to repeat the extensive oceanographic survey of the sea implemented in the summerof 1999 during the cruises of the R/V Roger Revelle and R/V Professor Khromov to compare results and analyze
the changes in water properties over a ten-year period. The data obtained by MBARI ISUS profiles of NO3 werecompared with the data from bottle water samples treated by chemical analysis during the surveys of 1999 and2009. These profiles show good correlation with the chemical analysis data of the subsurface layer. They hadsome differences with the accurate NO3 detection for both 1999 and 2009 in the upper layers, but matched very
well for deep layers, below 200 m. In general, results of the 2009 cruise showed that using the MBARI-ISUS canprovide a detailed structure of the NO3 vertical profile which is impossible to see using the bottle data.

GP-6412 (Cancelled)

Response of zooplankton and phytoplankton to climate change in China
Jingfeng Fan, Gengchen Han, Chuanlin Huo, Xinzhen Lin and Chunjiang Guan
National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian, 116023, PR China. E-mail: jffan@nmemc.gov.cn

We conducted a pilot ecological monitoring project to determine the response of marine organisms to climatechange with zooplankton and phytoplankton as the main monitoring targets. Thaliaceans, Creseis acicula, Sagitta
enflata, Temora stylifera and other tropical warm water species have been widely found in the northern part of
the Yellow Sea. Thaliaceans are found in the largest number and have the widest distribution, and have ranged
as far north as the Yalu River for the past 30 years. Zooplankton populations in the warm water are moving fromthe low-latitude region towards the high-latitude region in response to climate warming. Cell numbers of thedominant species in the phytoplankton community in the Bohai Sea have decreased in the past 70 years and theoriginal dominant species are losing their dominance due to the change in community composition. Ceratium sp.
(Pyrrophyta) have become the mainly dominant species by succession, gradually replacing the dominant positionof diatoms. The long-term changes in density and community structure of phytoplankton in the Bohai and thenorthern region of the Yellow Sea are the results of global climate change to some extent.

204

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W1 Posters
W1-6368 (Cancelled)

Marine ecosystem reestablishment − Seawater electrolyse with carbon captureJose M.P. Silva, Miguel J.A. Lopes and Ana R.P. Quintas
Curso de Química, Ambiente e Qualidade, Colégio Internato dos Carvalhos, Rua do Padrão, 83, Pedroso, 4415-284, Portugal
E-mail: zemanel@cic.pt

How is it possible to recover ecosystems by using both renewable energies and scrap iron?
The ocean acidification limits and/or conditions the atmospheric carbon dioxide fixation (CO2) due to the instabilityof the hydrogencarbonate ion (HCO3−) in water. This way the formation of the phytoplankton and, directly, thewhole food chain are compromised because carbohydrates are insufficient. Iron II (Fe2+), which is important forthe catalytic synthesis of chlorophyll, shows up in low concentrations as a result of mechanisms of reduction mademore and more difficult by the low iron III (Fe3+) concentration caused by, for example, overfishing and retentionof river residues in dams.
Will it be possible to fight all the ominous causes at the same time? Of course it will! In this project, developed ina laboratory, the seawater electrolysis is done by using renewable energies. An inactive graphite cathode is used,
where the reduction of the water molecule will happen and also a reactive iron anode, where oxidation will occur
with transference of iron II into water. In the cathode, two things are released: hydrogen which is an importantenergetic vector to be used in fuel cells, and hydroxide ions (HO−) that allow the reestablishment of pH by thebalance of the hydrogencarbonate ion. In the anode, Fe2+ ions are transferred into water. These act as catalyzer
in the molecule synthesis of chlorophyll, which allow the beginning of the production process of carbohydrates
through phytoplankton by capturing the atmospheric carbon dioxide and the release of oxygen.

W1-6403

Hasan M. Abdullah and Yoshio Awaya
River Basin Research Center, Gifu University, 1-1 Yanagido, Gifu, 501-1193, Japan. E-mail: hasan@green.gifu-u.ac.jp

Like many other countries global warming has affected our weather patterns and disrupted our variability andtrends in climate. Now Bangladesh is recognized worldwide as one of the countries most vulnerable to theimpacts of global warming and climate change. Over the last ten years, Bangladesh has been ravaged by climatic
extremes like floods, heavy downpour over short spell, cyclones, tornados, and droughts. This is due to its uniquegeographic location, dominance of floodplains, and low elevation from the sea. Though the adverse impacts areprojected low lying coastline but floodplain ecosystems other than coastline which characterize Bangladesh is also
equally vulnerable.
Bangladesh has vast resources that support fish production. Approximately 40,000 km² of permanent andseasonal water bodies provide complex habitat for around 260 species of fish. These include seasonally inundated
floodplains and rivers, small and large seasonal and permanently flooded depressions called beels and haors
respectively, and oxbow lakes known as baors. The legendary Chalan beel is the largest beel (wetland) situatedin the north western region of Bangladesh, with an area of more than 350 km² during the rainy season and about
90 km² during the dry season.
Digitized temporal landsite (MSS, TM and ETM) image shows the variability of inundated area of Chalan beel
due to drought caused by irregular rainfall and flooding caused by short spell heavy rainfall. Both the events areharmful for fish production as drought damage the fish habitat by drying the wet land and flood washout the fishfrom the water body and loss caused to fisherman. Present study would give a climate change impact scenario of
Chalan beel.

205

W1

Monitoring the impact of climate change on inland water bodies and fisheries by remotesensing and GIS technique a case study of Chalan beel (Bangladesh)Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W2 Oral Presentations
25 April, 9:05 (W2-6370)

Acidification of the global ocean: Observational evidence and projections to 2100 with
the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM)
Kenneth L. Denman1,2, James Christian1,2, Nadja Steiner1,2 and Warren Lee2
1
2

Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Institute of Ocean Sciences, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, BC, V8L 4B2, Canada. E-mail: ken.denman@ec.gc.ca
Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, c/o University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3065, STN CSC,
Victoria, BC, V8W 3V6, Canada

The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of Working Group I of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change presented observational evidence of decreasing pH and calcium carbonate saturation state in the upper
ocean. They estimate that global surface pH had decreased 0.1 since preindustrial times and project an additional
decrease by 2100 of between 0.14 and 0.35, depending on which emission scenario is used. Since AR4 more
observational evidence has accumulated, including ‘corrosive’ (pH <7.5 roughly where aragonite, the mineralform of calcium carbonate found in corals, becomes ‘undersaturated’) waters reaching depths as shallow as 20
m near the coast in wind-driven upwelling regions, and in the Canada Basin of the Arctic Ocean. Our earthsystem model CanESM, with dynamic carbon cycles on land and in the ocean including an embedded planktonic
ecosystem model, was run with historical CO2 emissions and the IPCC SRES ‘A2’ scenario for future emissions.
We present global spatial distributions of surface pH and saturation state from our model up to 2100, and depth
distributions along a North-South transect in the North Pacific Ocean, showing the shoaling of the aragonite
saturation horizon (lysocline) since preindustrial times due to carbon dioxide from human activities reaching
the ocean interior. An alternate scenario where emissions are rapidly reduced after 2050 partially mitigates themost severe impacts, but still results in a large expansion of undersaturated waters and a substantially reduced
saturation state even in low latitude surface waters.

25 April, 9:20 (W2-6149)

Metabolism and metamorphosis of coral larvae in acidified seawater
Masako Nakamura1, Shun Ohki1, Atsushi Suzuki2 and Kazuhiko Sakai1
1

2

Sesoko Station, Tropical Biosphere Research Center, University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, 905-0227, Japan
E-mail: m_coral29@yahoo.co.jp
Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Tsukuba, 305-8567, Japan

207

W2

Scleractinian corals are the key organisms in coral reef ecosystems as reef builder, primary producer, andhabitat provider. Maintenance of their populations is sustained by recruitment of planktonic larvae. Successful
recruitment is directly affected by metamorphosis processes from the intermediate planktonic larval stage to thebenthic juvenile stage. Nowadays, coral populations face to threats caused by the increase in the concentrations ofatmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted by anthropogenic activities and the subsequent increase in the amountof CO2 dissolved in the oceans. Ocean acidification, induced by increased atmospheric CO2, has been reported
to impact on calcification of adult and juvenile corals and fertilization through the reduction in the number ofmotile sperm. However, our experiments suggested that the effect of acidified seawater on coral larvae were lesssignificant than on those stages. In the present study, we first assessed metabolism (O2 consumption) of corallarvae under different pH conditions to understand the mechanisms underlying the stress response of the larvae
to acidified seawater. Second, we examined whether coral larvae are able to maintain metamorphosis capability
under acidified conditions. As a result, metabolism of coral larvae tended to decrease with pH decrease. Moreover,metamorphosis was significantly diminished in reduced pH conditions. This implies that ocean acidification may
negatively impact the metamorphosis process of coral larvae, resulting in recruitment failure. The present study
would contribute to deepen the knowledge on coral population maintenance in a high CO2 world.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 9:35 (W2-6259)

Effects of ocean acidification on the growth of the flat-tree oyster, Isognomon alatus(Gmelin, 1791)
Lailah G. Lartey-Antwi1 and Andreas J. Andersson2
12

Department of Oceanography and Fisheries, University of Ghana, P.O. Box LG 99, Legon-Accra, Ghana
E-mail: lailah.lailah@gmail.com
Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, 17 Biological Station, St. George’s, GE01, Bermuda

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) are rapidly increasing the atmospheric concentration of CO2
and reducing the pH of the surface ocean, a phenomenon referred to as ocean acidification. Ocean acidification
could have negative effects on marine organisms. As a result of increasing seawater CO2 and decreasing pH, theavailability of carbonate ions and the saturation state with respect to calcium carbonate minerals will decrease. As
a consequence, the formation of calcareous hard-parts will become increasingly challenging for marine calcifying
organisms such as corals, coralline algae, crustaceans, mussels, oysters and clams. This study provides informationon the effects of increasing CO2 and decreasing pH on the growth rate of Isognomon alatus (flat-tree oyster)under controlled laboratory conditions as well as in a natural environment. In controlled laboratory experiments,
I. alatus lost weight and experienced negative growth rates of –0.56 + 0.36 mg g-1day-1 under average pHtotal valuesof 7.8 compared to a loss of –0.26 + 0.23 mg g-1day-1 under average ambient pHtotal conditions of 8.1. In contrast,
I. alatus incubated in a natural environment showed gain in weight and positive growth despite exposure to pH
levels (~7.4) during low tide significantly lower than those experienced in the laboratory. These results suggestthat rising CO2 and ocean acidification could have drastic negative consequences on I. alatus, but that additional
factors (e.g., food availability) need to be considered in evaluating the response of this marine calcifier to theseongoing perturbations.

25 April, 9:50 (W2-6361)

Effects of diurnal pCO2 fluctuation on sea urchin larvae: A preliminary report
Ryota Suwa and Yoshihisa Shirayama
Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Field Science Education and Research Center, Kyoto University, 459 Shirahama, Wakayama, 649-2211,
Japan. E-mail: ryota@zenno.jp

Ocean acidification, caused by increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, is predicted to occur
in the future. Many studies have examined the impacts of increased CO2 or lowered pH on marine organisms.
However, previous studies have applied fixed pCO2 or pH values for assessments, although there is diurnal
fluctuation of pCO2 in the sea where pCO2 is low in daytime and high at night because of photosynthesis andrespiration. The pCO2 of the shallow waters around Shirahama, Wakayama, Japan where samples were collected
for this study fluctuates ±200 ppm diurnally. This fluctuation has the possibility to cause damage or recovery ofmarine organisms. A high-accuracy pCO2 system which enables simulation of the diurnal pCO2 fluctuation withrunning seawater was evaluated and used to assess the impact of diel pCO2 fluctuation on sea urchin larvae. Sea
urchins are an important fishery resource in Japan and their larval stage is known to be vulnerable to acidified
seawater. Two pCO2 conditions of 400 and 800 ppm with computer-programmed gradual pCO2 fluctuation andthree fixed conditions of 230, 400 and 800 ppm were prepared using this system and the effects of these conditions
on the larval morphology of the sea urchins Tripneustes gratilla and Hemicentrotus pulcherrimus were examined.
Preliminary results of these experiments will be included in this presentation.

208

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 10:05 (W2-6303)

Overview of the impacts of ocean acidification on the early development of fishes andshellfishes
Haruko Kurihara
Transdisciplinary Research Organization for Subtropical Island Studies, University of the Ryukyus, 1 Senbaru, Nishihara, Okinawa, 9030213, Japan. E-mail: harukoku@e-mail.jp

Ocean acidification is now likely to affect a wide range of marine organisms. This presentation will review
available studies evaluating the effects of ocean acidification on the early developmental stages of different
marine organisms including commercially important species (sea urchins, bivalves, crustaceans and fishes). The
studies generally demonstrated evidence that 1. Ocean acidification impacts the early developmental stages ofseveral fishes and shellfishes 2. The early developmental stages are principally vulnerable to ocean acidification;
2. Different developmental stages (e.g. fertilization, larva, settlement stages) are affected in different ways, andgenerally, the stage in which precipitation of calcium carbonate starts is most sensitive to the ocean acidification;
3. The capacity for tolerance differs between species; and 4. The early developmental stages are synergisticallyaffected by ocean acidification and global warming. Considering that the viability of early developmental stages
directly affects the population size of marine organisms, the projected oceanic environmental change due to theincrease of atmospheric CO2 will potentially affect fish and shellfish populations, which may in turn impact thesustainability of our future marine food sources.

25 April, 10:40 (W2-6311), page 213

25 April, 10:55 (W2-6243)

Mathematical approach to modeling the effects of ocean acidification on the pteropod andpink salmon population
Kehinde Salau
Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Physical Sciences A-Wing, P.O. Box 871904,
Tempe, AZ, 85287-1904, USA. E-mail: kehinde.salau@gmail.com

25 April, 11:10 (W2-6291)

Effects of CO2-driven ocean acidification and warming on early development of fish
Atsushi Ishimatsu1, Atsuko Fukuda1 and Haruko Kurihara2
12

Institute for East China Sea Research, Nagasaki University, Tairamachi 1551-8, Nagasaki 851-2213, Japan
E-mail: a-ishima@nagasaki-u.ac.jp
Transdisciplinary Research Organization for Subtropical and Island Studies, The University of Ryukyus, Nishihara, Okinawa, 903-0213, Japan

Most efforts in ocean acidification research have been directed towards understanding how biocalcification isaffected by high CO2/low pH seawater. In contrast, little attention has been paid to effects on fish despite theirparamount importance in marine ecosystems as predators and food resources for humans. Moreover, there arelimited data on the combined impacts of ocean acidification and warming. Our recent results have demonstrated

209

W2

Ocean acidification serves to be a problematic extension of increased atmospheric CO2 content, especially when
the future of marine ecosystems and organisms is concerned. An increase in aquatic CO2 content decreases
oceanic pH and intensifies shoaling saturation depths of the CaCO3 minerals, calcite and aragonite. One species
that serves to be greatly affected by ocean acidification is the euthecosomatous pteropod, which may suffer shelland skeleton deterioration and/or growth delay. There are also bottom-up consequences: the abundant pink salmon
in the North Pacific is an important harvested population. Juvenile pink salmon have been known to prey heavily
on pteropods, creating a three-tier interaction between plankton, fish and humans. A discrete stage-structured
model is developed to investigate the dynamics of this three-tier interaction and to generate questions and ideas
about what happens to such interactions in the wake of ocean acidification.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
the deleterious impacts of elevated temperature and CO2 on early development of the tropical clownfish(Amphiprion clarkii and A. ocellaris), although CO2 sensitivity differed between the two species. Embryonicsurvival of A. clarkii was 80-100% at 29°C but 0% at 31°C in both control and high CO2 groups (1000 matm).
Similarly, embryonic survival of A. ocellaris was comparable between the two groups at 29°C (80-100%), but at
32°C survival remained high in the control but was only 0-30% in the high CO2 group. There was no significant
difference in external morphology, yolk absorption or cardiac activities for surviving individuals. No clear
difference was detected in larval survival, body length or body weight between control and high CO2 groupsof A. clarkii at 29°C. These results suggest that some fish could become extinct in future oceans if they cannot
acclimate to the rapid rise of CO2 and temperature. The results of an ongoing study on CO2 effects through several
generations of the seawater medaka (Oryzias javanicus) will also be discussed.

25 April, 11:25 (W2-6128)

Ocean acidification does not affect the early life history development of a tropical marine fish
Philip L. Munday1, Monica Gagliano2, Simon Thorrold3, Jennifer M. Donelson1 and Danielle L. Dixson1
1

2
3

ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, and School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Townsville,
QLD, 4811, Australia. E-mail: Philip.Munday@jcu.edu.au
Centre for Evolutionary Biology, School of Animal Biology, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, USA

Little is known about how fishes and other non-calcifying marine organisms will respond to the increased levels of
dissolved CO2 and reduced seawater pH that are predicted to occur over the coming century. We reared juvenilesof the spiny damselfish, Acanthochromis polyacanthus in seawater simulating a range of ocean acidification
scenarios for the next 50-100 years (current-day, 550ppm, 750ppm, 1030 ppm atmospheric CO2) to test how earlylife history and developmental traits might be affected. Newly-hatched clutches were divided into the different
treatments and reared for three weeks. There was no effect of elevated CO2 on the mortality or growth rates
of juveniles. There were also no consistent differences in the development of major skeletal elements between
control and treatment fish. Finally, otoliths (composed of aragonite) did not differ in size, shape, asymmetry(between left and right) or chemical composition between controls and treatments. These results, in combination
with results from experiments using the orange clownfish, Amphiprion percula, suggest that ocean acidification,in isolation, will not have a significant effect of the early life history development of reef fishes.

25 April, 11:40 (W2-6390)

Effects of elevated pCO2 on fish otoliths – Results, inference, and experimental designDavid M. Checkley, Jr.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 93093-0218, USA. E-mail: dcheckley@ucsd.edu

The growth of otoliths in fish and statoliths in invertebrates may vary with elevated pCO2. I present our recent
findings of accelerated otolith growth of young white seabass (Atractoscion nobilis) under elevated pCO2
(Checkley, Dickson et al. 2009 Science 324:1683) in the context of past, slow and future, rapid environmental
change, and of evolution, adaptation, and ontogeny. Past and future pCO2 experienced by teleost fish may varyover similar ranges but on vastly different time scales, with implications for adaptation. I also discuss the designof short-term experiments intended to allow inference about the effects of long-term, gradual change in pCO2 on
the growth of otoliths and statoliths.

210

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W2 Posters
W2-6065

Variability in pH values and the potential influence of ocean acidification on oysters andother shellfish in Pacific Northwest estuaries
Steven S. Rumrill1,2, Alicia R. Helms2 and Adam S. De Marzo2
1

2

University of Oregon, Oregon Institute of Marine Biology, 63466 Boat Basin Dr., Charleston, OR, 97420, USA
E-mail: Steve.Rumrill@state.or.usSouth Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve, Estuarine and Coastal Science Laboratory, P.O. Box 5417, Charleston, OR, 97420, USA

Increased pCO2 values along the continental shelf of the North Pacific have the potential to alter the carbonate
chemistry of surface waters and disrupt calcification for several species of commercially and recreationally
important shellfish. Acidification of nearshore ocean waters is a serious concern along the shoreline and estuaries
in Washington, Oregon, and northern California where the California Current system is characterized by intense
seasonal upwelling, elevated pCO2 values, and periodic hypoxia. Commercial mariculture of Pacific oysters(Crassostrea gigas) and other shellfish contributes $110 million annually to the regional economy, and the estuaries
provide habitat for recovering populations of Olympia oysters (Ostrea lurida) and recreational harvests of several
species of clams, crabs, and burrowing shrimp. Time-series measurements of dissolved oxygen and pH values
were recorded over 2002-09 with a YSI-6600 EDS multi-parameter datalogger deployed in the tidal channel ofthe South Slough estuary (Coos Bay, OR). Estuary pH values typically ranged between 7.7 and 8.3 each day withlowest values in mid-morning and highest values in mid-afternoon. The daily pH cycle appears to be driven by
net photosynthesis and respiration within the estuary. We also observed a long-term shift in estuary pH values
from a low mean value of 7.9 in 2002 to a higher mean value of 8.1 in 2009. It is likely that pH variability in theestuaries differs substantially from the ocean, and carbonate saturation conditions for the early life-history stagesof oysters and other shellfish may be only indirectly coupled to acidified waters further offshore.

W2-6237

Increase in the Si:N drawdown ratio of the Bering Sea phytoplankton community underhigh CO2 and iron-limited conditions
Koji Sugie1, Hisashi Endo2, Koji Suzuki2,3 and Takeshi Yoshimura1
1

2
3

Environmental Science Research Laboratory, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 1646 Abiko, Abiko, Chiba,270-1194, Japan. E-mail: sugie@criepi.denken.or.jp
Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Kita 10 Nishi 5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0810, Japan
Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Kita 10 Nishi 5, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0810, Japan

211

W2

We report the results of an on-deck CO2 and iron perturbation experiment examining nutrient drawdown ratio by
the natural oceanic Bering Sea phytoplankton community during late summer 2009. Partial pressure of CO2 in the
air injected into the incubation bottles was set at 180, 380, 600 and 1000 ppm for iron-added (5 nmol L−1) treatments
and at 380 and 600 ppm for unamended controls. During the 1 week batch incubation, CO2-adjusted air was
bubbled directly into the incubation bottles. The growth rates were higher in iron-added treatments compared to thecontrols, suggesting phytoplankton in the controls were iron-limited. The maximum chlorophyll a concentrations
were ~25 µg L−1 in all iron-added bottles, and ~10 and ~6 µg L−1 in the controls of 380 and 600 ppm, respectively.
Nitrate, nitrite, phosphate and silicic acid were exhausted on days 4 or 5 in the iron-added bottles while only
silicic acid was depleted on day 5.7 in the 380 ppm control. We found the Si:N drawdown ratio of the 600 ppm
control (2.34 ± 0.05) was significantly higher than that in 380 ppm of 1.89 ± 0.02 (p<0.01, ANOVA). The high
Si:N drawdown ratio in the 600 ppm was derived from the combination of higher Si:P and lower N:P drawdown
ratios compared to the 380 ppm treatment. The Si:N drawdown ratio in the iron-added bottles did not change at
0.76 due to pCO2 variation. Our results suggest that in iron-limited regions the future high-CO2 world may lower
the carrying capacity for silicifiers such as diatoms.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W2-6249

Effects of ocean acidification on the early developmental stages of Ezo abalone Haliotis
discus hannai
Hideki Takami1, Ryo Kimura2, Tsuneo Ono3, Toshihiro Onitsuka2 and Yukihiro Nojiri4
1

2

3
4

Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 3-27-5 Shinhama, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan
E-mail: htakami@affrc.go.jp
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science (Yokosuka Station), Fisheries Research Agency, 6-31-1, Nagai, Yokosuka, Kanagawa,
238-0316, Japan
Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 116, Katsurakoi, Kushiro, Hokkaido, 085-0802, Japan
Center for Global Environment Research, National Institute for Environmental Study, 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, JapanAt the PICES 2009 Annual Meeting, we reported that elevated pCO2 above 1500 ppm had considerably harmful
effects on fertilization and larval development of Ezo abalone Haliotis discus hannai, an economically valuable
gastropod. In this study, we focused on the response of post-larval Ezo abalone to increased pCO2, especiallymetamorphosis and post-larval growth rates using a highly accurate CO2 manipulation system. Larval abalone,which had been reared at pCO2 concentrations from 400 to 2000 ppm, were induced to metamorphose by additionof 1.5 µM of g-aminobutyric acid and 300 µg/ml of Streptomycin sulfate BP. Metamorphosed post-larvae werealso reared at pCO2 concentrations of 400-2000 ppm to monitor growth rate. The elevated pCO2 did not affectthe percentage of larvae metamorphosing into post-larvae. Shell growth rates of post-larvae at >1500 ppm
were significantly reduced compared with those at <1000 ppm. Scanning electron microscope images of postlarval shells from >1000 ppm showed abnormal development suggesting problems with shell deposition and/or increased shell dissolution. These results and those from the previous study indicate that pCO2 >1000 ppm
reduced developmental performance of Ezo abalone in early life stages. If the oceans continue to acidify as
expected, the population of Ezo abalone may be endangered due to recruitment failure of larvae and post-larvaeby the year 2100.

W2-6287

Impact of a high-CO2 environment on Japanese Ivory-shell, Babylonia japonica
Jun Kita
Demonstration Laboratory, Marine Ecology Research Institute, 4-7-17 Arahama, Kashiwazaki, Niigata, 945-0017, Japan
E-mail: kita@kaiseiken.or.jp

The Japanese Ivory-shell, Babylonia japonica, (Neogastropoda: Buccinidae) inhabits sandy bottoms in temperate
shallow waters of Japan. They are scavengers in the inshore ecosystem and important fisheries species. I investigatedthe effects of a high-CO2 environment on reproductive properties such as egg production and embryonic development,
together with acute mortality. To test reproductive properties, adult Ivory-shells were maintained in seawater at
normal conditions (pCO2=560 ppm) and at three high-CO2 conditions: pCO2=1,600ppm, pCO2=5,700 ppm and
pCO2=16,000 ppm for 80 days. To test acute mortality, adult Ivory-shells were kept in seawater at normal condition(pCO2=570 ppm) and at three high-CO2 conditions: pCO2=68,000 ppm, pCO2=97,000 ppm and pCO2=150,000
ppm for 96 hours. The total number of spawned egg capsules and the mean egg number per capsule showed nosignificant difference between normal and high-CO2 conditions. The mean number of unsuccessful embryonicdevelopments per capsule showed a significant difference at 5700 ppm, and all eggs at 16000 ppm showed no
successful embryonic development. However, when the capsules were transferred to normal seawater conditions
immediately after the spawning, all eggs in high-CO2 conditions showed normal embryonic development. The
acute mortality test indicated that adult Ivory-shells were highly tolerant to high-CO2; they survived even at
97,000 ppm but died at 150,000 ppm. These results suggested that early life stages of Ivory-shell are sensitive tohigh-CO2 environments.

212

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W2-6288

Effects of CO2 induction on development of Brine Shrimp (Artemia franciscana)
Umme Salma and Hyun Woo Kim
Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University, 599-1 Daeyeon 3-dong, Nam-gu, Busan, 608-737, R Korea
E-mail: ummesalma.bau@gmail.com

Continuous absorption of anthropogenic CO2 by the ocean is one of the major causes of ocean acidification.
Surface ocean pH has reached 8.1 which is approximately 0.1 units less than the estimated pre-industrial value
200 years ago. Researchers predict that if CO2 emissions continue to rise on current rate, ocean average pH willreach 7.8 by the end of this century. Effects of ocean acidification are not only disruption of calcification ofmarine calcifying organisms but also interfere reproductive or physiological processes in other marine species.
Susceptibility of numerous marine organisms such as corals, mollusks, crustaceans and sea urchins have beenreported, but in our experiment Brine Shrimp (Artemia franciscana) is taken as a model due to its ease of culture,
growing and maintenance facilities. Consequently, we investigated the effects of culture in CO2-enriched seawateron the life history stages of Brine Shrimp. We designed continuous CO2 supplied water tanks and divided theexperimental groups into three differents pH 7.00, 7.30 and 7.60 and then hatching success, survival and growthrate were measured through the developmental period. Native seawater was used as control. These results suggestthat raising CO2 will affect hatching, survival and growth of marine organisms ultimately affect marine larval
production. Further aims of our study are to isolate and characterize the genes affected by higher CO2, as gene
expression is influenced by variations of environmental conditions such as different pH, salinity or temperature, toobtain a better idea about the physiological change of marine animals which follows ecological change.

W2-6311 (moved to Oral Section, 10:40 am, page 209)

Climate change impacts (ocean acidification and temperature) on the metabolic scope
and activity of nektonic organisms: A crustacean example
Awantha Dissanayake1, Atsushi Ishimatsu1, Haruko Kurihara2 and So Kawaguchi3
1
2

3

Institute for East China Sea, Nagasaki University, Tairamachi 1551-7, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan. E-mail: awantha@nagasaki-u.ac.jp
Transdisciplinary Research Organization for Subtropical and Island Studies, The University of Ryukyus, Nishihara, Okinawa,
903-0213, Japan
Australian Antarctic Division, Channel Highway, Kingston, Tasmania, 7050, Australia

213

W2

Continuous increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are elevating atmospheric concentrations of CO2, which
in turn are increasing simultaneously the CO2 concentrations (i.e. hypercapnia) and acidity of the world’s oceans(ocean acidification; OA). Elucidating the impacts of OA associated climate change (OA-CC) upon the biota isof paramount importance as the human population increases, and thus the dependency upon global fisheries as asource of nutrition. Predicting OA-CC impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries is difficult due to the current
lack of knowledge of the ability of individual species and key functional groups to adapt to climatic change. In
general, however, invertebrates, in particular, crustaceans are more sensitive to OA-CC effects than fish. This
study addresses physiological impacts of OA-CC in a model crustacean group (Decapoda: Penaeidae) indicativeof the swimming capability of other natantia occupying various ecosystems (shallow-water coastal and open
ocean). Penaeid individuals (Metapenaeus joyneri) exposed to both hypercapnia (1% CO2) and temperature(15 and 20°C) demonstrated a new regulatory set-point in osmotic capability with a concomitant shift inhaemolymph pH, compared with control individuals (ambient/present day CO2 levels). OA-CC exposure resulted
in a significant 30% reduction of the critical swimming ability of Penaeids (defined as swimming endurance).
The observed reduced swimming ability may be due to reduced metabolic scope [i.e. difference between active
and basal metabolic rate (assessed as oxygen consumption rates)] as observed by a significant 30% reduction ofactive metabolic rates but no difference in alteration of basal metabolic rates. OA-CC impacts may therefore
cause organisms to shift energy utilisation towards maintenance (i.e. osmoregulatory ability) thereby, resulting
in a decrease in both aerobic metabolic scope and energy-demanding activities e.g. swimming. In conclusion,in order to improve our predictive abilities of OA-CC effects, laboratory-derived empirical evidence elucidating
the physiological mechanisms of OA-CC impacts in key model groups, must be elucidated in order to predict thestatus of global fisheries.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W2-6344

Molecular technique analysis of effect of ocean acidfication on brine shrimp
Bo Kwang Kim and Hyun Woo Kim2
Department of Marine Biology, Pukyong National University, Yonghoro 51, Nam-gu, Busan, 608-737, R Korea
E-mail: coke0727@naver.com

A major concern of anthropogenic effects on marine ecosystems is ocean acidification. As CO2 increases asa result of human activities, average pH has been decreasing since the mid 19th century. Changes in pH in
ocean ecosystems cause harmful effects on marine animal mating, hatching, survival and feeding. Among them,harmful effects on the animals with exoskeletons may be more serious than other species. In the present study, we
designed a seawater tank to evaluate the effects of different carbon dioxide levels. Using brine shrimp (Artemia
franciscana) as a model system, animals were kept for two weeks in two different pH conditions (pH 7.00 and
pH 7.8), which were adjusted by continuous flow of gaseous CO2. To isolate genes which were influenced by pH,
we carried out deferential display RT-PCR using annealing control primers. A total of 120 different primer sets
were used for this experiment and isolated genes were characterized. Quantitative PCRs were also performed tomeasure the change of each transcript by different pH. This study would help us to understand cellular mechanisms
in the changing marine environment and to estimate future results from ocean acidification.

W2-6422

Physiology to Fisheries: starting steps and future approaches
Will Le Quesne and John K. Pinnegar
Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Sciences, Lowestoft Laboratory, Pakefield Rd., Lowestoft, Suffolk, NR33 0HT, UK
E-mail: will.lequesne@cefas.co.uk

Whilst ocean acidification (OA) operates at the cellular level it is the population and ecosystem level responses
that are of societal concern. Given predictions about potential physiological impacts on commercial species
and other ecosystem components there is a strong desire to assess potential OA impacts on fisheries. Assessing
potential OA impacts on fisheries requires scaling up from physiological processes to ecological processes andexamination of the interaction between physiology and ecology. Given the difficulty of large-scale long-term
manipulative studies, predictive ecological modelling will form a significant strand in assessment of OA impacts.
To conduct this in a timely manner, where possible it is desirable to emulate the impacts of OA through parameter
modification in existing ecological and fisheries model structures. In some instances parameters within model
could be directly modified on the basis of physiological studies, however in other instances experimental results
will have to be objectively or subjectively interpreted to inform reparameterization. A variety of modelling formats
exist that aim to emulate population and/or ecosystem processes with fundamentally different model structures.
This allows different physiological effects to be emulated across a variety of models. To incorporate ecology into
OA studies it is necessary to develop a dialogue between physiologist and ecologists to assess how OA effects canbe emulated within existing predictive model structures, and whether all relevant effects of OA can currently be
captured. This poster aims to facilitate this dialogue by posing some questions and by providing an example of astarting step down this road.

214

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W3 Oral Presentations
25 April, 9:30 (W3-6365)

Changes in mesozooplankton size structure along a trophic gradient and implications forthe growth of small pelagic fish
Ryan R. Rykaczewski
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ, 08540-6649, USA
E-mail: ryan.rykaczewski@noaa.gov

Previous laboratory observations indicate that zooplankter sizes and concentrations influence the growth andbehavior of individual sardine and anchovy. I build upon these relationships by considering how growth
rates and behavior may be influenced by observed changes in plankton size structure along a trophic gradient.
Mesozooplankter sizes and concentrations were measured for samples collected across a trophic gradient in
the California Current Ecosystem, with coincident measures of phytoplankton size structures and ecosystem
conditions. I found a clear distinction between mesozooplankter sizes in samples collected from oligotrophic andeutrophic communities, with the relative abundance of large individuals being greater in areas where upwelling
conditions enhanced nutrient availability and increased abundance of larger phytoplankters. The relative
contributions of smaller zooplankters were greater in oligotrophic waters. In light of the observed variability
in the biomasses and size structures of phytoplankton and zooplankton communities, I estimated the potential
growth rates of sardine and anchovy using previously established models of ingestion, absorption, excretion,and respiration. These bioenergetic models suggest that the potential for growth of anchovy is dependent on thecommunity structure of nearshore, eutrophic waters where large zooplankters are abundant. Growth of anchovyis unlikely in offshore, oligotrophic waters. In contrast, growth of sardine is possible under more oligotrophic
conditions and influenced by oceanographic conditions in the offshore region of the ecosystem. These results
suggest that accurate representation of plankton size structure may be an important component in mechanistic
models of sardine and anchovy populations.

25 April, 9:55 (W3-6027)

A consistent nutrient to fish model for the Baltic Sea
Wolfgang Fennel
IOW, Seestr. 15, Rostock, 18119, Germany. E-mail: wolfgang.fennel@io-warnemuende.deThis talk presents a consistent theoretical approach to bridge the gap between biogeochemical models and fishproduction models. The linkage of the different models requires coupling of a NPZD-model and fish production
model to generate a NPZDF-model, (or WFM -Warnemuende Food web Model). As example system the Baltic
Sea is chosen, where the fish dynamics is dominated by two prey species (sprat and herring) and one predator(cod). However, the approach can also be applied to other systems.

215

W3

The dynamics of the fish model is driven by size-dependent predator-prey interactions while the interaction
between the model components is established through the feeding of prey fish on zooplankton and recycling offish biomass to nutrients and detritus. The model conserves strictly mass. In order to demonstrate the model
performance, several loading and fishing scenarios are discussed. In particular, the effects of eutrophicationand fishery scenarios are addressed. The comprehensive NPZDF-model also opens the possibility to analyse
the effects of choices for parameterizations of unresolved processes in truncated NPZD models. Simulations ofscenarios show that the observed order of magnitude and the structure of the species of catches can be reproduced,
but the description of the phases needs further consideration. The model enables building the fish model into athree-dimensional ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea or other systems.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 10:40 (W3-6297)

Development and implementation of a 3D-IBM in the north Aegean Sea (eastern
Mediterranean) that describes the full life cycle of anchovy
George Triantafyllou1, Kostas Tsiaras1, Stylianos Somarakis1, Dimitris Politikos1,2 George Petihakis1, Annika
Pollani1, Shin-ichi Ito3 and Bernard A. Megrey4
1
2

3
4

Hellenic Centre for Marine Research, Anavissos, 19013, Greece. E-mail: gt@ath.hcmr.gr
Department of Mathematics, School of Applied Mathematical and Physical Sciences, National Technical University of Athens, Zografou
Campus, Athens, 157 80, Greece
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Marine Fisheries Service, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand
Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA

An Individual Based Model (IBM) that describes the full life of the cycle of the European anchovy (Engraulis
encrasicolus) is developed and implemented in the north Aegean Sea (eastern Mediterranean Sea) in the frameworkof SESAME-REPRODUCE-MEECE EU projects. For modeling purposes, the north Aegean population ofanchovy is represented by a number of “Super Individuals” (SI) with attributes (x, y, z coordinates, population,age, length, weight of the fish). This Lagrangian model is online two-way coupled with a biophysical model
based on Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and European Regional Seas Model (ERSEM). Processes at the level oforganism are described by a bioenergetics model following the basic structure of the NEMURO.FISH model, while
a population dynamics model describes the evolution of the number of individuals in each age class, depending on
fishing and natural mortality. The SIs are transported as passive tracers while in the stage of eggs and early larvae.
For the next stages, migration dynamic programming methods are introduced that allow anchovy to “move” inoptimal areas by balancing food resources and processes due to memory and learning. The vertical SI distribution
is a function of food availability, optimal temperature and diurnal migration. Model results reasonably describe
the distribution and biomass of anchovy compared to available data, establishing a significant mathematical tool
for managing sustainable resources of anchovy. These quantitative approaches are useful for the investigation andprediction of the effect of climate changes on fish populations and the functioning of oceanic ecosystems. Model
performance together with sensitivity analysis are presented and discussed.

25 April, 11:05 (W3-6267)

Potential impact of climate change on Pacific sauryShin-ichi Ito1, Takeshi Okunishi2, Michio J. Kishi3,4 and Muyin Wang5
1

2
3
4
5

Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, FRA, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan
E-mail: goito@affrc.go.jp
National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, FRA, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-8648, Japan
Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Hokkaido, 060-0813, Japan
Frontier Research Center for Global Change, JAMSEC, Yokohama, Kanazawa, 236-0001, Japan
Joint Institute for the Study of Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA, 98115

An ecosystem-based bioenergetics model NEMURO.FISH (North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding
Regional Oceanography.For Including Saury and Herring) was developed and successfully reproduced realistic
growth of Pacific saury with parameters determined mainly from field observations. The model is composed ofthree ocean domain boxes and saury is assumed to migrate between those boxes. The model is very simple but it
also reasonably captures the growth difference between autumn, winter, and spring-spawned cohorts. This model
was used to investigate responses of Pacific saury to global warming using the sea surface temperature (SST) of
current climatology and a global warming condition generated by MIROC3.2 coupled atmospheric–ocean model
output with A2 scenario. The saury showed a decrease in both wet weight and body length under global warming
because of less prey plankton density. The migration pattern was modified by increasing SST and reducing thesize of saury. Under global warming, higher SST in the mixed water region prevented the southern migration ofsaury in the first winter and delayed it in the second winter. As a result, egg production was enhanced by a higher
availability of prey zooplankton in the mixed water region. Results may greatly depend on the magnitude of SST
increase. We will compare the results using several climate model outputs at the presentation.

216

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 11:30 (W3-6211)

Development of a climate-to-fish-to-fishers model: Data structures and domain decomposition
Kate Hedström1, Jerome Fiechter2, Kenneth A. Rose3, Enrique N. Curchitser4, Miguel Bernal4, Shin-ichi Ito5 andBernard A. Megrey6
1
2
3
4

5
6

Arctic Region Supercomputing Center, 909 Koyukuk Dr., Suite 105, Fairbanks, AK, 99775, USA. E-mail: kate@arsc.edu
Ocean Sciences Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA, 95064, USA
Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA
Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Rd., New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA. Permanent address:
Instituto Español de Oceanografía, Centro Oceanográfico de Cádiz, Puerto Pesquero, Muelle de Levante, s/n, Apdo. 2609, 11006,
Cádiz, Spain. E-mail: miguel.bernal@cd.ieo.es
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 3-27-5, Shinhama-cho, Shiogama-city Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan
Alaska Fisheries Science Center-NOAA, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA, 98115, USA

In the accompanying Rose presentation, a coupled ecosystem model for physics to fish to fishing fleets will
be introduced and preliminary results will be shown. The model has been configured for examining the longterm population cycles of anchovy and sardine in the California Current system. This presentation will focus
on the numerical methods and computing considerations for dynamically coupling the physics, lower trophic
level, and upper trophic level models. The physics is represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS), which has been designed to run on parallel architectures using the Message Passing Interface (MPI)
that is common on the current generation of supercomputers. The lower trophic level model is a version of
the NEMURO nitrogen-phytoplankton-zooplankton model. The fish community is represented using a full life
cycle, individual-based approach. When combining the models, which are a mix of Eulerian and Lagrangian
approaches, care must be taken to ensure that the modeling system continues to function on tens of processors withmany thousands of individuals without running into resource limitations – or worse, results that depend on thenumber of processors. We will describe several of the numerical algorithms we are using in our coupled model,
including those for spatially-locating eggs from spawning and scaling the predator-prey interactions among thefish species represented in the model and between the fishers and the fish.

25 April, 11:55 (W3-6401)

Should climate-to-fish-to-fishers models be assembled from existing models?
Kenneth A. Rose
Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA
E-mail: karose@lsu.edu

217

W3

The development of climate-to-fish-to-fishers (end-to-end) models is a very active area of research. The concept isvery appealing and attractive. If such models can be developed, they offer promise in addressing bottom-up and topdown effects of climate change and would allow for a major step towards ecosystem-based fisheries management.
There are several major efforts underway to develop end-to-end models. These approaches differ in several
ways: single-species versus multi-species versus community representations, direct linkage to 3-dimensional
physics versus very simplified spatial domains, mass versus individual versus size-based currencies, new versus
old approaches to predator-prey interactions, and how behavioral movement is represented. I use several of theseongoing model development efforts to illustrate these differences, including our group’s effort in developing an
end-to-end modeling framework within the widely-used ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) circulation
model. We have opted to piece together an end-to-end model for sardine and anchovies from existing submodels(ROMS, NEMURO, individual-based bioenergetics for fish) with the addition of a bioeconomics-based fishingfleet submodel. I will use this example, with others, to illustrate some the old issues that arise with developing
complicated models in general, as well as new issues specific to the development of end-to-end models. Theseissues call into the question the seemingly straightforward approach of simply linking existing submodels, andthese issues should be carefully considered when developing any end-to-end model.

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W4 Oral Presentations
25 April, 9:10 (W4-6121)

Setting the stage for predicting climate change effects on Pacific salmon – How has salmon
abundance varied during the last 85 years and why?
James R. Irvine1 and Masa-aki Fukuwaka2
1

2

Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd., Nanaimo, BC, V9T 6N7, Canada
E-mail: james.irvine@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 116 Katsurakoi, Kushiro, Hokkaido, 085-0802, Japan

Understanding reasons for previous changes in salmon abundance can help anticipate climate related changes
in the future. We review regional differences in abundance trends, present time series of hatchery releases andsalmon survivals, and relate changing patterns in salmon abundance and survival to major climate indices. Recent
salmon abundance levels in the northern North Pacific Ocean, as indexed by commercial catch, have been among
the highest on record, with no indication of declines. While the North Pacific Ocean continues to produce large
quantities of Pacific salmon, temporal abundance patterns vary among species and areas. Currently, pink andchum salmon are very abundant overall, chinook and coho salmon are less abundant than they were previously,
while sockeye salmon abundance varies among areas. Chum and pink salmon are the most abundant species on
the Asian side of the North Pacific; pink, sockeye, and chum salmon are the most abundant species on the North
American side. Salmon population responses to climate change have differed among regions. In the Western
North Pacific Ocean, generally favourable climate-related marine conditions, expanding hatchery operations, andimproving hatchery technologies are all playing roles in increasing the abundance of chum and pink salmon. In
the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, climate-related changes are playing a major role in expanding chum and pinksalmon populations, and declining populations of coho and chinook salmon.

25 April, 9:30 (W4-6096)

Regional differences in climate factors controlling chum and pink salmon abundance
Masa-aki Fukuwaka1, Toshiki Kaga2 and Tomonori Azumaya1
1

2

Hokkaido National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 116 Katsurakoi, Kushiro 085-0802, Japan
E-mail: fukuwaka@fra.affrc.go.jp
National Salmon Resources Center, Fisheries Research Agency, 2-2 Nakanoshima, Toyohira-ku, Sapporo 062-0922, Japan

Abundance levels of chum and pink salmon have changed in an inter-decadal time scale. Catches of these species
were larger in the 1930s and the 1990s-2000s than in other decades in the past. Some studies focused on therelationship between Pacific salmon abundance and basin-scale climate indices. Other studies showed regional
co-variations in abundances of individual salmon populations and pointed out the importance of regional-scale
process in controlling salmon abundance. Thus, we examined the relationship between climate factors, such as
air temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperature, and change rates in coastal catches of chum (ln(Ct+4/Ct))
and pink salmon (ln(Ct+2/Ct)) in five regions of the Pacific Rim (i.e. Japan, Russia, US Northwest and British
Columbia, Southeast Alaska, and Western and Central Alaska). Using the correlation analysis adjusting the degreeof freedom considering temporal autocorrelation, we found a difference in climate factors, with the strongest
effect on change rate in regional salmon catch and the difference in temporal change of salmon catch among
regions. Most of these climate factors have been previously reported as a controlling factor of salmon abundance
for individual or regional populations. These results suggested that no climate factors or indices control salmon
abundance commonly in every region; however, global climate changes can affect regional climate directly andregional salmon abundance indirectly. We conclude that the mechanisms controlling regional salmon abundance
are needed to study the forecasting of future conditions of salmon stocks because responses of salmon stocks toglobal climate changes can be different among regions.

W4

219

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 9:50 (W4-6138)

Global warming and density-dependent effects on Hokkaido chum salmon
Masahide Kaeriyama, Michio J. Kishi and Hyunju Seo
Faculty of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minato, Hakodate, Hokkaido, 041-8611, Japan. E-mail: salmon@fish.hokudai.ac.jp

We reveal the effects of the regional and larger spatial scales of climatic/oceanic conditions on growth, survival, andpopulation dynamics of Hokkaido chum salmon using path analysis. Variability in growth of chum salmon at age-1
to -4 was estimated based on the back-calculation method using scales of 4-year-old adults returning to the Ishikari
River of Hokkaido Island in Japan during 1945-2005. Growth of Hokkaido chum salmon indicated an increase atage-1 and decline at age-2, -3, and -4 since the 1980s. The path analysis results showed that the growth at age-1
in the Okhotsk Sea was directly affected by warmer sea surface temperature (SST) which was strongly causedby the global warming effect. Then, the increased growth at age-1 directly affected the higher survival rate andindirectly the larger population size. In the Bering Sea, subsequently, the enlarged population size directly affected
the decreased growth at age-3 and indirectly the smaller fork length of adults, despite no relation between SST,
zooplankton biomass, and the growth at age-2 to -4. Therefore, faster growth at age-1 relating to global warming
will positively affect the survival rate. In turn, it will lead to a population density-dependent effect on the growth of
Hokkaido chum salmon at age-2 to -4 and maturing in the Bering Sea because of limited carrying capacity.

25 April, 10:10 (W4-6203)

Implications of a warming eastern Bering Sea on western Alaska salmon
Ed V. Farley, Jr., Lisa B. Eisner, J. Murphy, R. Heintz and Alex Andrews
NOAA, NMFS, AFSC, Ted Stevens Marine Research Institute, 17109 Point Lena Loop Rd., Juneau, AK, 99801, USA. E-mail: ed.farley@noaa.gov

Large scale fisheries and oceanographic surveys along the eastern Bering Sea shelf provide an opportunity to
examine how juvenile western Alaska salmon have responded to shifting ecosystem states (warm versus cold).
During years with a warm spring and summer sea surface? temperatures, the juvenile salmon growth rate potential
is higher, their diets generally consist of age 0 walleye pollock, they are relatively abundant, and are larger whencompared to juvenile salmon captured during years with a cold spring and summer sea surface temperatures.
However, juvenile salmon stocks that enter the northeastern Bering Sea (Yukon River) display differential earlymarine mortality during cold years compared to those salmon captured in the southeastern Bering Sea. It is
generally agreed that the climate in the Arctic and Bering Sea is warming. A bioenergetics model for juvenile
sockeye salmon suggests that increasing sea surface temperatures by 20% during the summer decreased their
growth rate potential, particularly during years with already warm summer sea surface temperatures. Recent
evidence also suggests that some juvenile salmon species had significantly lower energy density during years withwarm sea surface temperatures which may have implications for overwinter survival. These results and otherBerin-Aleutian Salmon International Survey (BASIS) data are used to examine whether or not increased warmingon the eastern Bering Sea shelf will negatively affect juvenile western Alaska salmon fitness.

25 April, 10:50 (W4-6381)

Phenolgy of high latitude chinook salmon populations
Phillip R. Mundy1 and Dani F. Evenson2
1
2

Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 17109 Pt Lena Loop Rd., Juneau, AK, 99801, USA. E-mail: phil.mundy@noaa.gov
Alaska Department of Fish and Game, 333 Raspberry Rd., Anchorage, AK, 99518, USA

We report on progress in developing quantitative measures of salmon spawning migrations for comparison toenvironmental factors in order to understand the effects of climate change on salmon. Timing of annual spawningmigrations of salmon in some localities is dependent on the width of an annual time window when temperatures
support viability of gametes. Timing of marine exit may be linked to climate and weather through effects on thelocation and stability of temperature-salinity fronts at the river mouth. Spawning migrations in high latitudes,
where the windows of suitable environmental conditions are narrow, may be particularly sensitive to climatechange.

220

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
During the second half of the 20th century the Yukon River watershed has experienced substantial warming in air
temperatures, exhibiting an increase of +5°F relative to the long term average since 1950. The Intergovernmental
Committee on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts warming to be particularly acute for continental climates at thelatitudes of the Yukon River drainage. Our work describes timing of chinook salmon on the Yukon River delta
over the past forty years as an indicator of the effects of climate change on salmon. Our long-term goal is to apply
the indicators to understand how salmon might respond to future conditions projected in IPCC scenarios.

25 April, 11:10 (W4-6218)

Climate effects and Oregon coast coho salmon: A multi-ecosystem approachThomas C. Wainwright and Laurie A. Weitkamp
NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Newport Field Station, 2032 Southeast OSU Dr., Newport, OR, 97365, USA
E-mail: thomas.wainwright@noaa.gov

Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) that spawn in the coastal rivers of Oregon, U.S.A, are listed as ‘threatened’
under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We present an assessment of the effects of climate change on sustainabilityof this population group. Four distinct ecosystems are important to different life-history stages of coho salmon:
terrestrial forests, freshwater rivers and lakes, estuaries, and the North Pacific Ocean. Each of these systems isaffected by multiple aspects of climate change, resulting in a complex web of pathways influencing sustainability.
While climate models provide quantitative estimates of likely trends for some of the physical changes, we lacksufficient understanding of the biological response to reliably quantify the effects on salmon populations andextinction risk. For this reason, our analysis is qualitative: we summarize likely trends in climate, identify thepathways by which those trends are likely to affect salmon, and assess the likely direction and rough magnitude of
response by life history stage. While we find some positive effects, negative effects predominate at every stage.
We then consider the cumulative impacts across the coho salmon life-cycle and across multiple generations.
Because these effects are multiplicative, small effects at individual life stages can result in large changes in theoverall dynamics of populations, so we expect a strong overall negative effect. Similarly, cumulative uncertainties
for life-stage-specific effects will lead to large uncertainties in future sustainability, and these uncertainties willcontribute to increasing risk. Without strong conservation efforts, the future does not look very bright for these fish.

25 April, 11:30 (W4-6245)

Adaptation and persistence of Pacific salmon facing climate change: An individual-basedmodeling analysis
Thomas E. Reed1,2, Robin S. Waples2, Daniel E. Schindler1, Eli Meir3 and Nathan J. Mantua1123School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, P.O. Box 355020, Seattle, WA, USA. E-mail: tomreed@uw.edu
National Marine Fisheries Service, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, 2725 Montlake Blvd. E., Seattle, WA, 98112, USA
SimBiotic Software, 148 Grandview Court, Ithaca, NY, 14850, USA

Climate change impacts on Pacific salmon have far-reaching ecological and economic consequences, given
their pivotal role in freshwater, terrestrial and marine ecosystems and their importance to human communities
around the Pacific Rim. Predicting these impacts is complicated by obstacles to downscaling coarse-grained
climate models to salmon watersheds, resolving uncertainties in climate change scenarios, and understanding
mechanistic responses of salmon and their habitats to environmental change. Timing traits are likely to facestrong, potentially conflicting selection pressures as the optimal periods for migration, spawning, emergence andgrowth shift with abiotic and biotic changes in freshwater and marine environments. We developed an individualbased ecogenetic model to explore potential demographic consequences of plastic and evolutionary responses inmigration timing (timing of ocean entry for smolts, and river entry for adults) for different salmon life histories,
under a range of climate change scenarios. We characterized climate-induced selection on timing traits for ageneralized coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) life history, using generic functions derived from the literature. We
then applied this model to a number of different US and Canadian watersheds, for which downscaled (50 year)
projections of changes in temperature and flow profiles, under a range of global climate change scenarios, wereavailable. Preliminary results suggest that evolutionary and plastic responses might facilitate persistence in some

W4

221

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
populations and regions, whereas extinction might be unavoidable for others. Our model provides a flexible
tool to explore how evolutionary and ecological processes interactively affect salmon persistence in a changing
climate, ultimately informing management actions.

25 April, 11:50 (W4-6087)

The Salmon Monitoring Advisor: A hierarchical web site to help design and implement
salmon monitoring programs
Randall M. Peterman1, Peter B. Adams2, Brigitte Dorner1,3, Douglas L. Drake4, Harold J. Geiger5, Kendra Holt1,6,
Chris Jordan7, David P. Larsen8, Steven A. Leider9, Richard H. Lincoln10, Anthony R. Olsen11, Charles K. Parken6,
Jeffrey D. Rodgers12 and Shaun Walbridge13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

12
13

School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada. E-mail: peterman@sfu.ca
Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, Santa Cruz, CA, USA
General Delivery, Lasqueti Island, BC, V0R 2J0, Canada
Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020 SW 4th Ave., Portland, OR, 97201, USA
St. Hubert Research Group, 222 Seward St., Suite 205, Juneau, AK, 99801, USA
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, 3190 Hammond Bay Rd., Nanaimo, BC, V9T 6N7, Canada
NOAA Fisheries, c/o U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 200 SW 35th St., Corvallis, OR, 97333, USA
Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission, c/o U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 200 SW 35th St., Corvallis, OR, 97333, USA
Governor’s Salmon Recovery Office, Olympia, WA, USA
State of the Salmon, 721 NW Ninth Ave., Suite 300, Portland, OR, 97209, USA
Western Ecology Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Laboratory, U. S. Environmental Protection Agency, 200 SW
35th St., Corvallis, OR, 97333, USA
Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, 28655 Hwy 34, Corvallis, OR, 97333, USA
National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State St., Suite 300, Santa Barbara, CA, 93101, USA

Salmon managers, scientists, and non-governmental organizations face substantial challenges designing costeffective monitoring programs to assess both status and time trends in abundance, productivity, spatial structure,and diversity of salmon populations. We are currently developing a web-accessible knowledge base called the“Salmon Monitoring Advisor” to help such people choose designs that (1) reliably estimate changes in salmon
indicators, and (2) estimate the relative contribution of climate-driven mechanisms to those observed changes(compared to changes caused by other factors). This web site provides a systematic, structured framework to
help users develop clear goals and objectives, as well as design and implement salmon monitoring programs
that are reliable, informative, and cost-effective. The site is accessible in a hierarchical manner to reflect
diverse audiences, including (1) scientists who design monitoring programs and/or analyze the resulting data,(2) technical staff who implement monitoring designs in the field, (3) people involved in providing funding formonitoring programs, and (4) managers and decision makers in government agencies or in local or regionalsalmon conservation organizations. This web site is named “Salmon Monitoring Advisor” because it provides
advice and guidelines to help users work through the essential steps involved in designing monitoring programs tomeet stated objectives, and provides pros and cons of different designs, rather than being prescriptive about which
design best meets a particular monitoring objective. The web site uses seven sequential steps to guide monitoring
design and implementation and provides extensive explanations and real-world examples for each step.

222

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 12:10 (W4-6222)

Developing salmon management responses to climate impacts at the watershed scale
Larry Wasserman
Swinomish Indian Tribal Community, 11430 Moorage Way, LaConner, WA, 98257, USA. E-mail: lwasserman@skagitcoop.org

While the effects of global warming are most frequently modeled at a regional scale, management decisions
affecting salmon are often made at the watershed level by tribal, local and state governments. Changes inhydrology, sediment transport, water quality and sea level associated with climate change have the ability tosignificantly alter freshwater survival of anadromous salmonids, a resource upon which Native American
communities depend. The Skagit Climate Science Consortium (SCSC) was established in response to the need toprovide a watershed level of analysis of processes influencing salmon survival within the Skagit River basin. The
Skagit River basin is the third largest river in the western United States and home to six species of Oncorhynchus.
SCSC scientists from Federal, Tribal and city governments and two universities are coordinating research efforts
at a basin scale to make predictions of the implications of climate change on the Skagit watershed that will
help to inform decisions associated with changes in hydropower operations and flood damage reduction efforts,
salmon restoration initiatives, and instream flow protection strategies, to name a few. Efforts are underway to linkmodeling efforts directed at impacts on glaciers in the headwaters, changes in basin hydrology and sedimentation,and sea level rise. This paper will discuss an approach to link scientific investigations among diverse disciplines
with local decision making needs associated with the protection of freshwater ecosystems upon which salmon
resources depend.

W4

223

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W4 Posters
W4-6048

Atlantic salmon population dynamics under scenarios of climate change: An individualbased demogenetic approach
Cyril Piou and Etienne PrévostINRA, UMR INRA-UPPA ECOBIOP, Pôle d’Hydrobiologie, Quartier Ibarron, St-Pée-sur-Nivelle, 64310, France
Email: Cyril.Piou@st-pee.inra.fr

Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar, populations are prone to the influence of climate change both in their river andoceanic phases. Increase in river temperature and flow variability could modify growth conditions and secondarily
marine survival. Marine growth and survival conditions have been hypothesized as affected by past climatechanges. The current balances between alternative life histories could be altered. We integrated a cohesive
amount of knowledge on S. salar biology representing the processes of growth, survival, life history decisions
and reproduction in an individual-based demogenetic model to simulate small Western European populations.
Migration and maturation processes are represented as genetically heritable probabilistic reaction norms in order
to incorporate the influence of life history evolution on population dynamics. We used this model to assess thechanges in life history balances (e.g. river residence vs. anadromy; one winter vs. multiple winters at sea) inrelation to three synergetic influences: 1) differential exploitation rates of the different age class; 2) river climatechange; 3) marine environmental change. We find that as long as the stressors are not lethal for the population,
the evolution of marine life history traits is mainly driven by selective pressures from exploitation rates. However,marine conditions and flow regimes are also of utmost importance in controlling stocks abundances, in shaping
river residence proportions and in evolution toward shorter life cycles. We discuss these findings in the light ofrecent field observations of modifications in European populations and the future of Southern vs. Northern Europe
populations.

W4-6133

Long-term changes in biological characteristics and abundance of Atlantic salmon
juveniles and adults from important Kola Peninsula rivers (Russian Federation)
Sergey Prusov, Boris Prischepa, Elena Samoylova and Svetlana Krylova
Knipovitch Polar Research Institute of Marine Fisheries and Oceanography (PINRO), 6 Knipovitch St., Murmansk, 183763, Russia
E-mail: prusov@pinro.ru

The life history of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) includes long periods of life in salt- and freshwater environments,
with salmon being exposed to the impact of a complex of factors of different origins. Studies have shown that the
number of salmon returning to rivers is dependent upon the smolt production and marine exploitation rates as wellas the variability in ocean conditions that also influence the survival, growth and subsequent sea-age at maturationof salmon. To date, the important Kola Peninsula salmon rivers, which have an extensive and mostly pristine
habitat for Atlantic salmon, remain among a rare group of stocks that have been spared from being categorizedby continued long-term declines in salmon abundance. The recreational salmon fishery, developed in the region
on the catch-and-release principle, today is seen as one of the highest quality and most prestigious in the North
Atlantic. However, the climate-driven changes in freshwater environment (e.g., temperature and water levelchanges) can have a dramatic impact on salmon juveniles and adults. The long-term monitoring programmes
have identified the upward trend in water temperature of salmon rivers. Even slight alterations can be significant
for juveniles, which stay in the northernmost rivers for up to seven years, as well as for autumn-run adults, which
spawn in the rivers one year after arrival. This study aims to conduct a comparative analysis of long-term changes
in biological characteristics and abundance of Atlantic salmon juvenile and adults of several Kola Peninsula
salmon stocks.

224

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W4-6144

Effects of coastal seawater temperature on the return rate of hatchery-reared chumsalmon in Hokkaido and recent shifts in coastal environmental conditions and release ofjuveniles
Yasuyuki Miyakoshi1, Mitsuhiro Nagata1, Makoto Fujiwara1 and Sei-ichi Saitoh2
1
2

Hokkaido Fish Hatchery, Kitakashiwagi 3-373, Eniwa, Hokkaido, 061-1433, Japan. E-mail: miyakoshiy@fishexp.pref.hokkaido.jp
Laboratory of Marine Environment and Resource Sensing, Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences, Hokkaido University, 3-1-1 Minatocho, Hakodate, Hokkaido, 041-8611, Japan

In Hokkaido, northern Japan, chum salmon stocks are reproduced by intensive hatchery programs; approximately
one billion juvenile chum salmon are released from hatcheries in spring. The number of chum salmon returningto Hokkaido has increased since the 1970s and are at a historically high level after the 1990s. However, a large
difference in the return rates of hatchery-reared juveniles has been observed among regions in Hokkaido. The
early marine phase is thought to be a critical period for hatchery-reared chum salmon when mortality is highlyvariable. To understand the effects of coastal environmental conditions on the survival of chum salmon, we
analyzed the relationship between coastal sea surface temperature (SST) and the return rate of chum salmon
stocked along each coast of Hokkaido from 1985 to 2002. Significant effects are observed between SST and thereturn rate in eastern Hokkaido where the inter-annual variation of SST is large. The results suggest that the SST
in the coastal areas should be an important factor affecting the survival of released chum salmon, while otherfactors, e.g. release timing and fish size, may affect the survival. The timing and duration of optimum coastal
temperatures for residence of juvenile chum salmon differ among coastal regions and have been shifted graduallyin the last few decades. Release timings also have been shifted and the sizes of juveniles have been improved.
Recent shifts in environment conditions and release of hatchery-reared juveniles should affect the survival of
released fish differently in each region of Hokkaido.

W4-6180

Archeological evidence implies that global warming will shift Japanese chum salmon
distributions northward
Yukimasa Ishida1, Hiroyasu Adachi1, Isao Yagisawa1, Kazuaki Tadokoro1 and Harold J. Geiger2
1

2

Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama City, Miyagi Prefecture, 985-0001, Japan
E-mail: ishiday@fra.affrc.go.jp
St. Hubert Research Group, 222 Seward, Suite 205, Juneau, AK, 99801, USA

Archeological evidence from Hokkaido and the Tohoku Region in Japan showed that humans utilized Pacificsalmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) there at least 6,000 years ago. Approximately 5,000-6,000 years before the present,
what is now called the Kushiro Wetland, on the island of Hokkaido, was the saltwater-covered Paleo Kushiro Bay.
Based on the molluscan fossil fauna, the seawater temperature in Paleo Kushiro Bay was about 5°C warmer than
it is currently. The oldest salmon remains in the northern part of the Tohoku Region, on the island of Honshu, date
to 6,000-8,000 years ago. Salmon remains were found in Miyako, dating to 5,000-6,000 years ago; in Oofunato,
dating to 4,000-5,000 years ago; in Rikuzentakada, dating to 3,000-4,000 years ago; and in Naruse in Senda Bay,dating to 2,000-3,000 years ago. These shifts in salmon remains, from north to south, appear to reflect the change
in salmon distribution coincident with decreasing temperatures after the Jomon Marine Transgression, whichpeaked 6,000 years ago. Based on these observations of the past, we expect that global warming will move thesouthern limit of salmon distribution northward. We also expect this warming to reduce salmon production in
Japan, as sea surface temperatures and other conditions become similar those that existed 5,000-6,000 years ago.
We recommend adaptive measures to mitigate future global warming. Such measures might include favoringstock enhancement with late-run stocks, allowing more natural spawning, placing a greater emphasis on hatcheryfeeding programs, and adaptively changing the number of juvenile salmon released from hatcheries.

W4

225

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W4-6268

Climate, growth, and population dynamics of western Alaska Chinook and coho salmon
Gregory T. Ruggerone1, Beverly A. Agler2 and Jennifer L. Nielsen3123Natural Resources Consultants, Inc., 4039 21st Ave. West, Suite 404, Seattle, WA, 98199, USA. E-mail: GRuggerone@nrccorp.com
Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Division of Commercial Fisheries, Mark, Tag and Age Lab, 10107 Bentwood Place, Juneau,
AK, 99801, USA
Alaska Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 4210 University Dr., Anchorage, AK, 99508, USA

Salmon in western Alaska have undergone significant shifts in abundance during the past 50 years. Abundancesof Chinook and coho salmon were relatively low during the 1960s to mid-1970s, high from mid-1970s to mid1990s, and low from late 1990s to late 2000s. These shifts in abundance corresponded with the 1977 ocean regime
shift and the 1997/1998 El Niño. We examined ocean growth patterns of salmon in relation to climate and othervariables using measurements of salmon scales during the past five decades. Chinook salmon scale growth during
each year at sea was not related to climate shifts, but their growth was related to their previous growth history
and to pink salmon. Growth of coho salmon during their first season at sea increased during the late 1970s andremained relatively high until the late 1990s. Coho salmon growth was correlated with sea surface temperatureand pink salmon but spawning biomass of pollock, whose larvae provide key prey, explained more scale growthvariability. Coho abundance was positively correlated with first year growth at sea and with the index of larval
pollock. However, physical variables, such as SST, PDO and Aleutian Low, did not explain the model residuals,
which exhibited strong shifts associated with the 1977 and 1989 climate events. In contrast to western Alaska
sockeye salmon, in which early marine growth explained much of their variability in abundance, growth of cohoand Chinook salmon did not fully explain the large shifts in their abundance that were associated with climate
events.

226

W5

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W5 Invited Presentations
25 April, 9:15 (W5-6152)

Identification of global marine hotspots:
adaptation

Sentinels for change and vanguards for

Alistair J. Hobday1 and Gretta Pecl2,3
1

2

3

Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, 7001, Australia
E-mail: alistair.hobday@csiro.au
Climate Change Theme Area, Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 49, Hobart, Tasmania,
7001, Australia
Adaptation Research Network for Marine Biodiversity and Resources

Marine natural resources, such as fisheries, provide significant social and economic benefits globally, and early
warning of changes in resource availability is required to minimise social tensions (e.g. increased poverty andchanges in resource allocation) and societal costs (e.g. income redistribution and government restructuring).
Additionally, prior knowledge of how and when resources may alter will also facilitate the development,
application and evaluation of adaptation options for fisheries. We identify the global warming hotspots overthe last 50 years using historical datasets, and predict their location for the next 50 years based on an ensembleof AR4 global climate models. Examination of hotspots provides us with the first opportunities to detect thenature and pace of climate change induced impacts on our marine ecosystems, separate the impacts of synergistic
stressors like climate and fishing, and also offers the strongest prospect for validating species or ecosystem model
projections against reality. With sufficient interdisciplinary research and information, these hotspots will also
provide the first opportunity for evaluation of adaptation options in fishery systems. A network of scientists
working in global marine hotspots, where information is integrated and synthesized, contrasted and comparedacross locations, can best address the challenges of climate change. Collaboration at a global scale is necessary todevelop knowledge for managers to make decisions and for increased community understanding of the need forthese decisions, including increased confidence in the models and adaptation options being proposed.

25 April, 9:30 (W5-6312)

Climate driven changes in marine assemblages in SE Australia: A southern hemisphere‘hotspot’Stewart Frusher1, Gretta Pecl1, Alistair J. Hobday2, Craig Johnson1,3 and Zoe Doubleday1
1

2
3

Tasmanian Aquaculture and Fisheries Institute, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 49, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
E-mail: stewart.frusher@utas.edu.au
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Castray Esplanade, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
School of Zoology, University of Tasmania, Private Bag 5, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia

The waters adjacent to the south-eastern region of Australia have warmed at a rate 3.8 times the global averageover the last decades and are predicted to continue warming at a relatively rapid rate. These changes are a resultof the extension and strengthening of the East Australian Current which carries warm and nutrient poor tropicalwaters south along the east coast of Australia. Concomitant with the increased southern penetration of this current
is a change in the productivity of inshore regions due to changes in growth rates of coastal species and their
recruitment dynamics; southern (poleward) range extensions of both invertebrate and vertebrates with at least
several dozen fish species being identified as either new records or newly established in southern areas; changes
in the phenology of commercially important species and changes in species interactions. Recent increases in theabundance of the invasive sea urchin Centrosetphanus rodgersii, a voracious grazer of seaweeds, is of particularconcern as it overgrazes the seaweed canopy resulting in urchin ‘barrens’. Increases in Noctiluca blooms have also
been recorded, as have a decline in giant kelp. Combined, these changes are resulting in impacts on the structureand functioning of marine ecosystems with ramifications for marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture. The
south-eastern region of Australia generates 50% of Australia’s fisheries production, possesses a large proportionof endemic species (60%) and there is no land mass further south for species that find themselves ‘in hot water’.

227

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 9:45 (W5-6408)

The Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem
Larry Hutchings1, Carl van der Lingen1, Chris Reason2, Frank Shillington2, Andy Cockcroft1, Warren Potts3,
Romina Novo-Henriques3, Paul Shaw3 and Warwick Sauer4
12
34

Department of Marine and Coastal Management, Private Bag X2, Roggebaai, 8012, South Africa
University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch, South Africa
School of Biological Sciences, Royal Holloway University of London, Egham TW20 0EX, UK
P.O. Box 94, Grahamstown, Rhodes University, 6140, South Africa. E-mail: W.Sauer@ru.ac.za

The Benguela system is one of the major eastern boundary upwelling systems of the world, together with the
Humboldt, Canary and California Current ecosystems. The Benguela Ecosystem is inherently highly productive,complex and variable, and it is extremely difficult to separate the climate change “signal” from “noise”. We havecomprehensive data sets stretching back about 50 years and long term trends and cycles are beginning to emerge
from data and models. It is clear that conditions in the large ocean basins surrounding southern Africa play animportant role in changing not only the marine resources in the coastal regions, but terrestrial rainfall and weather
patterns as well over the entire region. One of the strongest trends in the data has been a warming at the northernand southern boundaries of the Benguela system. The northern warming has occurred across the boundary, while
the southern Boundary has warmed just south of the Agulhas Bank, with cooling in the inshore areas of theAgulhas Bank and southern Benguela, increasing the gradients across the southern boundary region. There has
been an increased frequency of “warm events” at the Angola-Namibia border in the past decade, and a persistentchange in the onset of seasonal warming in the north, with the potential to effect distribution and productivityof local inshore linefish species, and potential consequences for increased hypoxia (low oxygen water) on the
Namibian shelf. In this respect, it is thought that a major low oxygen event off Namibia in the 1990’s had a severe
and longlasting impact on the hake stocks, which have not recovered despite stringent management actions fromgovernment agencies. This decline in oxygen waters appears also to have a deleterious effect on rock lobster,which have increased in walkouts in the past four decades and a southwards and eastward shift in distribution.
Viewing the system as a whole, there has been persistent decadal variability in the BCLME, and it is not clear thatthese changes are linked exclusively to climate change, or to inherent natural long term cycles. Future research
and monitoring efforts need to focus on a much broader approach in space and time, including global changes andpalaeo-oceanographic time scales. Not only is this important for future marine ecosystem management, but it islikely to underpin future seasonal and longer term weather and climate change forecasts in the region.

25 April, 10:00 (W5-6321)

Catastrophic changes to inshore benthic communities following oceanographic warming
events in the Galapagos archipelago
Graham Edgar 1 and Stuart Banks212Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies, Private Bag 49, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, 7001, Australia
E-mail: g.edgar@utas.edu.au
Charles Darwin Foundation, Puerto Ayora, Galapagos, Ecuador

Habitat types and ecological communities across the Galapagos Marine Reserve have been greatly affected byextreme thermal anomalies over the past 30 years, with greatest changes detected for populations of many species
at the time of the 1982/83 El Niño. Despite the regular occurrence of El Niño in the region for millennia, inshore
reef communities possess a low apparent level of resilience to extreme warming events, as indicated by little
recovery towards pre-existing conditions since 1983. Communities associated with upwelling regions and coral
reefs were both disproportionately affected by the 1982/83 El Niño, primarily through associated overgrazing ofmacroalgae and corals by sea urchins and a huge expansion in the total area occupied by urchin barrens. The
removal of large lobster and fish predators by artisanal fishing has probably magnified impacts of ENSO events
through a cascade of indirect effects involving urchins. Populations of many macroalgae, invertebrates, fishes,
turtles, seabirds and marine mammals across the Galapagos region are predicted to increasingly decline throughthe next century as a consequence of climate change, putting many endemic species at risk of extinction.

228

W5

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 10:15 (W5-6307)

Biological responses to recent climate variability on the eastern Bering Sea shelf
Franz J. Mueter
School of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau, AK, 99801, USA. E-mail: fmueter@alaska.edu

Temperature variability on the eastern Bering Sea shelf can be decomposed into high-frequency interannual
variability, decadal-scale variability, and a long-term warming trend. These sources of variability interacted
to produce the well documented regime shift from cold to warm conditions in 1976/77. Continued warming
associated with a large-scale climate signal led to some of the warmest temperatures on record in the early 2000s,
but more recent years have seen a return to extensive ice conditions and the coldest bottom temperatures since
the early 1970s. Warming associated with the 1976/77 shift produced favorable conditions for groundfish andsockeye salmon and appeared to be associated with a general increase in productivity in the region. In spite of highvariability, generally favorable conditions for many groundfish and salmon stocks persisted for several decades.
However, the unprecedented warming in the early 2000s was associated with very poor survival of the pelagic
juveniles of two abundant and commercially important gadid species, walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
and Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus). Researchers are just beginning to unravel the potential causes of thesepoor year classes. Other changes associated with warming in the eastern Bering Sea include marked northward
shifts in the distribution of numerous groundfish species and an associated shift in the ecotone between Arctic
and subarctic communities. In spite of a return to very cold conditions in recent years, many biological indicatorsshow a persistent directional trend. This suggests that the long-term warming trend may have become a dominant
driver of biological variability in the region.

25 April, 11:00 (W5-6306)

Overview of climate change effects in British Columbia marine ecosystems
Thomas A. Okey1,2,3, Alvaro Montenegro4, Veronica Lo5, Sabine Jessen5 and Hussein Alidina6
1

2
3
4
5
6

West Coast Vancouver Island Aquatic Management Board, 3-4310 10th Ave., Port Alberni, BC, V9Y 4X4, Canada
E-mail: Thomas.Okey@gmail.com
University of Victoria School of Environmental Studies, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2, Canada
Conservation Science Institute, http://csi-global.org
Earth Sciences Dept., St. Francis Xavier University, 1 West St., Antigonish, NS, B2G 2W5, Canada
Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society - BC Chapter, 410 - 698 Seymour St., Vancouver, BC, V6B 3K6, Canada
World Wildlife Fund Canada, 1588-409 Granville St., Vancouver, BC, V6C 1T2, Canada

British Columbia’s highly complex and dynamic geomorphology and oceanography, and mostly remote geography,
hinders general understandings of climate change impacts. Its northern portion—the Pacific North Coast Integrated
Management Area (PNCIMA)—coincides with the transition zone between the Alaskan Coastal Downwelling
Zone and the California Current Coastal Upwelling Zone. This transition zone shifts with oceanographic cycles,
thereby theoretically shaping a responsive and resilient marine biota. However, a suite of physical oceanographic
changes have been documented in British Columbia marine and aquatic ecosystems on time scales of 50 to
100 years, and projections indicate continued directional changes. A number of biological changes have also
been observed, and these changes likely represent only the most conspicuous indicators of broader effects. The
biological changes and phenomena observed in relation to climate and oceanographic variability in the northeast
Pacific provide some insights into future long-term biological changes, but their character, nature, and magnitude
will likely differ from variability-related changes. Knowledge about commercially-important species and otherwell-known species allows for inference about distributional shifts, but attempts to project indirect and complex
climate change effects on the assemblage and structure of these biological communities are just now emerging.
The government of Canada is undertaking integrated management planning in its Large Ocean Management
Areas, including the PNCIMA, and Canadian provinces are responsible for marine resources management intheir coastal zones. However, attention to climate change impacts is conspicuously lacking from assessments andmanagement. Broadly integrated frameworks and approaches to science and management (e.g. of anthropogenic
stressors) are needed.

229

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 11:15 (W5-6416)

Rapid ecological change in the Northeast Atlantic climate change hotspot
Nicholas K. Dulvy1, Doug J. Beare2, Julia L. Blanchard3, Jan G. Hiddink4, Simon Jennings5, Brian J. MacKenzie6
and Allison L. Perry7
1

2
3
4
5
6

7

Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada
E-mail: dulvy@sfu.ca
Fisheries Research Services, Marine Laboratory, P.O. Box 101, Victoria Rd., Torry, Aberdeen, AB11 9DB, UK
Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Rd., Ascot , SL5 7PY, UK
School of Ocean Sciences, Bangor University, Menai Bridge, Anglesey LL59 5AB, UK
Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Sciences, Pakefield Rd., Lowestoft, NR33 0HT, UK
Danish Institute for Fisheries Research, Department of Marine Ecology and Aquaculture, Kavalergarden 6, 2920 Charlottenlund,
Denmark
The WorldFish Center, P.O. Box 500 GPO, 10670 Penang, Malaysia

The shelf seas of the North Atlantic Ocean, particularly the North Sea, represent one of the climate change hotspotsof the world. Sea surface temperatures of Northeast Atlantic and UK coastal waters have warmed by 0·2–0·6°C
decade–1 over the past 30 years. These surface increases belie greater increases in winter bottom temperature of
1·6°C over 25 years, including an almost 1°C step change in temperature between 1988-89. Summer temperatures
have risen 2-5 times faster than other seasons, mainly due to the increased frequency of extremely warm years.
Temperatures in the North Sea and adjacent Baltic Sea now exceed any temperature recorded since instrumental
records began in 1861 and 1880, respectively. Resulting ecological changes in the fish assemblages have been
rapid.
Fishes are following the physics of temperature, tracking isotherms northward and downward. The poleward
deepening of isotherms has influenced the availability of thermal habitat, leading to a reduction in the areal extent
of cold thermal habitat and an increase in the extent of warmer isotherms. Fishes with geographic range boundaries
in the North Sea are shifting poleward at rates four times greater than recorded for many terrestrial taxa. Species
with warmer thermal preferences and southern biogeographic affinities are expanding their geographic ranges
into NE Atlantic shelf habitats and fishes with boreal cooler thermal preferences are contracting northward. Fish
depths are responding to warming; the whole North Sea fish assemblage closely tracks annual variations in watertemperatures and is deepening at a rate of 3.6 m decade-1. In addition to local distributional changes, the North
Sea and surrounding waters are experiencing waves of invasion by southerly species, such as red mullet, anchovyand pilchard. Both invasions and local distributional shifts are resulting in increased turnover and elevated species
richness in the North Sea.
Aside from changes in distribution, local turnover and species richness, climate impacts are manifest at theecosystem scale. Climate variability influences the size structure of Celtic Sea fish assemblages. Increased
temperatures have been associated with steeper size spectra slopes, which results from more small bodied
individuals and species relative to large-bodied individuals and species, even after accounting for fishing pressure.

25 April, 11:30 (W5-6341)

Aquaculture and climate change in the coastal zone of Vietnam
Nguyen Huu Ninh
Center for Environment Research, Education and Development (CERED), 279/24 Giang Vo, Hanoi, Vietnam. E-mail: cered@vnn.vn

Economic development activities in the coastal zone are abundant and give the local people many benefits ofwhich fishery and aquaculture, particularly shrimp farming, is the major sector. Recently aquacultural activities
have been flourishing on the coast, and shrimp and clam farming have developed over the past 20 years but not allof the aquacultural activities have been successful. One reason identified by scientists pertains to farmers’ lack ofknowledge of ecological conflicts and climate change.
The issue will become more critical is future years as global environmental change places increasing pressure
on the coastal zone. The natural ecosystem often destroyed to develop aquaculture is the mangrove forest. As
well as providing a wide range of ecological services and extractive resources, mangroves play a major role in

230

W5

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
protecting the inward coastal zone against flooding caused by the tropical storms that regularly strike the coastlineof Vietnam. The destruction of the mangrove ecosystem increases vulnerability in the present-day and heightens
the risk of climate change impacts.
Thus the question is to find the most appropriate aquacultural land management practices which balance economicand environmental benefits both in the present-day and in future years. The objective of this study is to assess
the costs and benefits of different patterns of land use for aquaculture as well as to consider the income of people
involved in collecting marine products from the mudflats. From these findings, conclusions may emerge regarding
the possibility of developing a feasible plan for sustainable development in regard to climate change.

25 April, 11:45 (W5-6406)

Impact of climate change on coastal fishery resources of Taiwan
Kuo-Tien Lee and Hsueh-Jung Lu
Environmental Biology and Fisheries Science, National Taiwan Ocean University, Taiwan, 2 Pei-Ning Rd., Keelung, Taiwan, ROC
E-mail: tienlee@ntou.edu.tw; hjlu@ntou.edu.tw

Average sea surface temperature rise during 1980~2008 in the waters adjacent to Pacific, East China Sea continent
and Taiwan Strait were 0.65°C, 0.71°C and 0.75°C, which indicates a trend of diminishing China Coastal Current
and enhancement of the Kuroshio Current. The observed impacts from such a change on coastal capture fisheries
includes species regime shift, ecosystem structure vulnerability and displacement of fishing grounds. The warmingof sea surface temperature has caused a reduction of winter migratory species year after year and accelerated thechange of ecological structures. The problem that marine ecosystem and fisheries has to face is the expansion offish stocks from south and withdrawal of fish stocks from the north. In addition, under pressures from human’s
fishing activities for several decades, the large fishes at high trophic levels have decreased and small pelagic fishes
have increased at the same time. As the inter-annual fluctuations of small pelagic fishes were much higher thanthose of larger sized or longer lived species, the structure of the food (fish) pyramid in coastal waters would be
weakened even more. Future impacts from climate change were assessed using surface temperature provided
by Global Change Research Center (GCRC). The results of all scenarios by all models showed that most of
the fish will decrease especially those that migrate with the China Coastal Current, and only warm-water fish
species may increase. The short-, mid- and long-term warming may lead to a 5-50% decrease in catch for thosecurrently winter migratory species, which means a considerable portion of species will disappear. Traditional
fishery management measures would not be able to adapt to the problems caused by climate change. Under suchcircumstances, traditional fishery management tools are not enough. More external precautionary and adaptive
measures need to be introduced to reduce impact and risk.

25 April, 12:00

South China Sea
Wang Hui
Abstract N/A

231

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 12:15 (W5-6407)

Vulnerability to ocean warming in the Mozambique channel region
Lucy Scott1 and Warwick Sauer2
1

2

UNDP GEF Agulhas and Somali Currents Large Marine Ecosystem (ASCLME) Project, ASCLME House, 18 Somerset St.,
Grahamstown, 6140, South Africa. E-mail: lucy.scott@asclme.org
Department of Ichthyology and Fisheries Science, Rhodes University, P.O. Box 94, Grahamstown, 6140, South Africa
E-mail: W.Sauer@ru.ac.za

African countries are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to a combination ofenvironmental risk factors, low institutional capacity and high reliance on natural resources. The Mozambiquechannel region has been identified as one of the global hotspots of ocean warming, and its marine and coastal
ecosystems support large human populations that are highly dependent on natural resources. A warming trend in
the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) has been observed since 1976 with notable warming events having lead to longterm damage to marine ecosystems. Coral bleaching caused by high ocean temperatures in 1998 resulted in up to
90% coral decline in the Seychelles. Besides direct loss of corals, it negatively affected fisheries productivity ina region where most of the marine fisheries already show signs of overexploitation. While reefs have recovered
to varying extents, their structure and communities have changed considerably in certain areas. The impacts of
the 1997-1998 El Niño event also had a dramatic impact on the tuna fishery in the WIO. Besides the direct effecton marine habitats, the region experiences seasonal cyclones and heavy rain storm surges, which inundate coastal
areas and cause erosion; the frequency and intensity of which are projected to increase with an increase in sea
surface temperature. Threats posed by global change in general, and ocean warming in particular, need to bebetter understood to assist the countries and communities of the region to protect critical areas as well as to adapt
and cope with these impacts.

25 April, 14:00 (W5-6404)

The Japan Sea hotspot: Impacts of warming on bio-productivity and fisheries resources
Yury I. Zuenko
Japan Sea and North-West Pacific Oceanography, Pacific Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (TINRO-Center), 4 Shevchenko
Alley, Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray, 690950, Russia. E-mail: zuenko_yury@hotmail.com

Large-scale changes of oceanographic conditions in the Japan Sea are considered. A trend of water warming,in particular in winter (up to 0.4o/decade at the sea surface), and weakening of convective mixing have been
observed in the recent decades, caused mainly by a tendency of the winter monsoon to weaken. Significant
decadal fluctuations of water temperature are observed, non-coherent in different seasons, and recently winterwarming has ceased because of a cooling phase in winter. The warming tendency is generally unfavorable
for water productivity as nutrient influx into the photic layer decreases under conditions of weak convection.
However, phytoplankton abundance is determined by other factors as well and doesn’t have any significant trend.
In contrast, zooplankton abundance has a trend of increasing because a warmer environment improves conditions
for reproduction. The growing food base provides for growth of mass planktivore populations of subtropic nekton(japanese common squid, mackerels, tunas, yellowtail); moreover, their available habitats are expanding becauseof water warming. This expansion causes degradation of mass boreal species of nekton, as walleye pollock andsaffron cod. The most important fish species, japanese sardine, has a low abundance in the last two decades but
blooms are possible in conditions of both cooling and warming, so recovery of this stock is expected. The processof warming in the Japan Sea does not lead to exhaustion of resources for commercial fisheries in this region but
it does cause significant changes in the structure of the catch that demands some reconstruction in the fisherytechniques and economics.

232

W5

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 14:15 (W5-6405)

Oceanography and biological production off South Brazil and Urugay
José H. MuelbertInstituto de Oceanografia, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande, Rio Grande, Brazil. E-mail: docjhm@furg.br

Ocean waters of South Brazil and Uruguay are marked by a complex oceanographic setting and very importantfisheries. Strong influence of continental runoff, due to the Rio de la Plata and Patos Lagoon, decreases salinity
in coastal shelf waters. Intrusion of sub-antarctic waters contribute to a decrease in local temperature and nutrient
enhancement. The presence of the Brazil Current and its encounter with the Malvinas Current generates theBrazil Malvinas Confluence that represents an unique scenario for heat exchange and formation of the South
Atlantic Central Water (SACW). The interaction of this oceanographic setting combined with meteorologicalforcing influences biological and fisheries production in the region. Shrimp catches and larval fish recruitmentin the Patos Lagoon Estuary are controlled by extreme precipitation changes due to ENSO. Input of nutrient richfreshwater from the estuaries into the coastal region enhances stratification and formation of frontal regions withincreases in biological production. Upwelling of rich sub-antarctic waters favours primary production with further
implications for secondary production. The interplay of these different agents can be affected by climatic changes
and influence biological and fisheries production in the region. Increase in temperature can enhance stratificationand inhibit upwelling. Change in precipitation levels over the drainage basin of Rio de la Plata and Patos Lagoon
can directly influence salt balance in coastal regions. Although studies have not yet looked at climate change
implications on biological production in the region, there are initiatives being supported to look into this issue.

25 April, 14:30 (W5-6037)

Hotspots in warming sub-arctic seas
George L. Hunt, Jr.
School Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, P.O. Box 355020, Seattle, WA, 98195-5020, USA
E-mail: geohunt2@u.washington.edu

To prioritize conservation efforts in terrestrial habitats, regions with extraordinary species richness have been
designated as hotspots, as have areas with high species richness or endemism in low latitude marine systems.
Also included in the hotspot concept are marine regions with high biomasses of top predators, that is, areas
where trophic transfer to upper trophic levels is enhanced. At least two mechanisms promote these rich foraging
opportunities. There may be regions of exceptionally high primary production that are sufficiently stable topromote the formation of a food web that reaches to the highest trophic levels. Alternatively, there may beinteractions between physical processes and prey behavior that result in predictable aggregations of prey, muchof which may have resulted from distant production. Within the sub-arctic seas, both mechanisms result in large
aggregations of seabirds and possibly marine mammals. In these areas of aggregation, species diversity is notparticularly high; in fact often one or two species dominate the foraging and one or perhaps two species of prey
support the aggregation. It is not clear how these hotspots will respond to climate change. Those associatedwith ice edges are likely to retreat northward, and changes in the distribution or intensity of primary production
may also affect hotspots dependent on local production. Likewise, changes in circulation patterns could impact
those hotspots dependent on advection of prey. Since hotspots may account for considerable trophic transfer,the population consequences of changing hotspot distribution, abundance and prey densities is a research topic
worthy of study.

233

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

W6 Oral Presentations
25 April, 13:00

William T. Peterson
NOAA-Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR, 97365, USA
E-mail: bill.peterson@noaa.gov

Abstract N/A

25 April, 13:20 (W6-6420)

Propagation of ecological anomalies from the western to eastern North Pacific in a global
earth system model
Ryan R. Rykaczewski
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Rd., Princeton, NJ, 08540-6649,
USA. E-mail: ryan.rykaczewski@noaa.gov

Synchrony in the variability among remote marine ecosystems has been observed at decadal scales, and oceanatmosphere teleconnections have been investigated of as potential drivers of such variability. Here, I examine
basin-wide variability in the depth of the nutricline across the mid-latitude North Pacific using a global, earthsystem model. In this model, interannual to decadal scale variability in the depth of wintertime convection in thewestern North Pacific stimulates anomalies in the vertical distribution of nitrate. These anomalies propagate fromwest to east with the North Pacific Current with a transit time on the scale of decades. As a result, anomalies inthe deep-water nitrate concentration of the eastern North Pacific may be predicted several years in advance givenknowledge of convection and vertical nitrate distribution in the western North Pacific. This teleconnection is
one mechanism which may contribute to harmonization of decadal, ecological variability across the Pacific witha delayed response of the California Current relative to changes in the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension region. The
further ecological significance of this relationship will be discussed.

25 April, 13:40 (W6-6385)

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and marine food webs in the northern California Current:
Variations in source waters which feed the California Current may be the mechanism
which links climate change with ecosystem response
William T. Peterson1, Hongsheng Bi2, 3, Cheryl A. Morgan2 and Edmundo Casillas1
1

2
3

NOAA-Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR, 97365, USA
E-mail: bill.peterson@noaa.gov
Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Oregon State University, Newport, OR, 97365, USA
University of Maryland, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, MA, USA

Analysis of hydrographic and zooplankton data collected fortnightly in the coastal upwelling zone off Oregon
for the past 14 years and historical observations from the 1970s ands 1980s have shown that variations in sea
surface temperature, salinity, copepod biodiversity, species richness and community structure are correlated with
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When the PDO is negative (as during the 1970s, 1999-2002 and 2008-2009),
cold salty waters from the Gulf of Alaska feed the northern California Current (NCC) and transport large, lipidrich copepods to the shelf waters of the NCC; when the PDO is positive (as in 2003-2007), warm fresher watersfrom offshore and south feed the NCC and transport small, oceanic lipid-poor copepods to the coast. Thus thebasin-scale variations in winds that drive the PDO result in changes in transport that in turn control local foodchain structure. These changes in food chain structure correlate with (and predict) salmon returns to the Columbia
235

W6

Overview of some physical mechanisms that link physical forcing with zooplankton andfisheries response in the North PacificClimate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
River. We use altimeter data to show that changes in phase of the PDO are accompanied by changes in source
waters which feed the NCC. We argue that to examine how the coastal upwelling ecosystem of the NCC might
react to a climate change scenarios, we will need a better understanding of how basin-scale winds and variations ingyre circulation patterns impact source waters which feed the NCC. A combination of ROMS and GCMs should
allow examination of future states of the PDO and of regional variations in source waters that feed the NCC.

25 April, 14:00 (W6-6374)

Evidence of climate change in the northern California Current ecosystem and its impact
on the distribution and community composition of zooplankton
Jay O. Peterson1 and William T. Peterson2
1

2

Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR, 97365, USA
E-mail: jay.peterson@oregonstate.edu
NOAA-Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR, 97365, USA

Uncertainty exists in predictions of how climate change will impact aquatic ecosystems. For the California Current(USA), an eastern boundary current driven by upwelling, a warming climate is predicted to lead to increased watertemperatures and stronger stratification, but also more intense periods of upwelling. Physical and biological datafrom the northern California Current (NCC) ecosystem have been collected at various frequencies since 1969,
with the most intense and consistent sampling occurring from 1996 - present. This long-term dataset encompasses
phase changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and El Niño
Southern Oscillation (ENSO) providing information on how the NCC ecosystem may respond to climate shifts
leading to warmer or colder ocean conditions and changes in upwelling strength and duration. We will address
the long-term trends in physical variables (temperature, stratification, timing and strength of upwelling) and theassociated changes in the abundance and species composition of meso-zooplankton. Over the last 40 years wehave found several fundamental changes in the NCC including an increase in the number of copepod speciesroutinely found along the coast (0.11 species per year), an intensification of oxygen-depleted bottom waters on
the shelf, and a deepening in the depth from which water upwells. Variability within these trends correlates to thephase of the PDO and provides an indication of how the ecosystem responds to both warmer and colder ocean
conditions.

25 April, 14:20 (W6-6047)

Potential effects of climate change on the euphausiids Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa
spinifera off Newport, OR, USA
C. Tracy Shaw1, Leah R. Feinberg1 and William T. Peterson2
1

2

Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Oregon State University, 2030 SE Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR, 97365, USA
E-mail: tracy.shaw@oregonstate.edu
Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, 2030 SE Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR, 97365, USA

Climate change scenarios suggest that global warming will lead to stronger coastal upwelling and changes in themagnitude and duration of natural climate cycles such as the PDO. Our ongoing biweekly zooplankton sampling
program (1996-present) encompasses variations in timing and intensity of upwelling and cool and warm phasesof the PDO which allows us to investigate some potential effects of climate change on the euphausiids Euphausia
pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera. E. pacifica spawning is strongly associated with the timing of the onset of
upwelling but not with upwelling strength. Spawning peaks four months after the spring transition and juveniles
appear two months later. In 2005 upwelling was delayed and krill spawning was similarly delayed. Survivorshipof larvae produced that summer was considerably lower than during other years. T. spinifera spawn prior to andduring upwelling and seem to be more strongly affected by water temperature. 2002 was an anomalously cold
year and T. spinifera, usually a shelf species, were found far offshore. Their reproductive effort in 2002 was
the highest seen during this study. E. pacifica were not strongly affected by temperature variations and werealways present. T. spinifera were rare or absent during warmer ocean conditions. Changes in the timing of thespring transition are likely to affect E. pacifica spawning behavior. Consistently warmer ocean temperatures will
likely lead to a decrease in T. spinifera abundance and spawning. Both scenarios will affect the availability ofeuphausiids as a food source for higher trophic level predators.

236

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 14:40 (W6-6372)

Impacts of wintertime upwelling and primary production on euphausiid phenology andthe productivity of upper trophic levels in the northern California Current
Leah R. Feinberg1 and William T. Peterson2
1

W6

2

Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Oregon State University, 2030 SE Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR, 97365,
USA. E-mail: leah.feinberg@oregonstate.edu
Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries, 2030 SE Marine Science Dr., Newport, OR, 97365, USA

The northern California Current is highly productive and an important feeding ground for many fish, birds andmammals. We are examining the relationship between ocean conditions in the understudied wintertime period
preceding the “official” upwelling season to evaluate the importance of this timeframe for setting up high levelsof secondary productivity prior to and during the upwelling season. We are looking at egg production of the twodominant euphausiid species in relation to the daily upwelling index for 45°N, ocean color satellite data, andchlorophyll and zooplankton counts from our bi-weekly surveys off Newport, OR (44.65°N) during January –March from1997-2009.
We observed wintertime chlorophyll peaks only in 2002-2008, with the biggest peaks occurring in 2002, 2005
and 2007. The presence of these peaks is related to wintertime weather conditions and upwelling patterns.
Exceptionally stormy winters did not lead to late winter phytoplankton blooms and in years when blooms did
occur they typically followed a period of brief upwelling. Thysanoessa spinifera is the second most dominanteuphausiid species in this region and is often cited as the preferred euphausiid prey for many fish and bird species.
They are uniquely able to exploit these wintertime blooms and we have seen large wintertime peaks in theiregg densities corresponding to these events. As we move into more uncertain climate scenarios, it is critical torecognize the year-round ocean conditions and resulting phenologies of these prey species as they may provide usa view into the mechanisms linking climate to fisheries.

25 April, 15:00 (W6-6421)

Responses in growth rate of larval northern anchovy and Pacific sardine to anomalous
upwelling in 2005 in the northern California Current
Motomitsu Takahashi1, David M. Checkley, Jr.2, Richard D. Brodeur3 and William T. Peterson3
1

2
3

Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, Fisheries Research Agency, 1551-8 Taira-machi, Nagasaki, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan
E-mail: takahamt@fra.affrc.go.jp
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr., La Jolla, CA, 92039-0218, USA
NOAA-Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, Newport, OR, 97365, USA

We examined variability in growth rate during early life stages for northern anchovy and Pacific sardine in
response to physical and biological environments in the northern California Current in 2005. Late larval and early
juvenile anchovy and sardine were collected using a subsurface trawl net in August, September and October off
Oregon and Washington. Hatch dates of northern anchovy ranged from late May to early September and thoseof Pacific sardine from mid May to early July based on the number of otolith daily increments. Widths of otolith
daily increments during larval stage were standardized at their formation dates to zero mean and unit deviation
as a proxy of seasonal variability in somatic growth rates. The standardized increment width (SIW) of northernanchovy was negative from June to mid August, changed to positive after late August and dropped in October,while no distinct trend was found in SIW of Pacific sardine. Biomass of neritic cold water copepod species
increased sharply after July and began to decrease in October in the Newport Line Station NH-5. Changes inphytoplankton (chlorophyll) biomass were similar as those in the copepod biomass. Previous studies have reported
that the onset of upwelling was delayed 2-3 months in 2005 and that upwelling intensified anomalously after mid
July resulting in decreasing sea surface temperature. Our results suggest that intensification of upwelling after
mid July led to the development of a bloom of phytoplankton and a surge in production of cold water copepod
species and consequently an enhanced larval growth rate of northern anchovy in the coastal waters off Oregon
and Washington in 2005.

237

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

25 April, 15:50 (W6-6418)

Overview of the zooplankton from viewpoint of food for fish resources in the western
North PacificKazuaki Tadokoro and Yuji Okazaki
Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, 3-27-5 Shinhama-cho, Shiogama, Miyagi, 985-0001, Japan. E-mail: den@affrc.go.jp

The western North Pacific near to east coast of Japan is classified to Kuroshio and Oyashio Kuroshio-Oyashiotransition waters. These waters have different oceanographic feature and are the important nursery area forcommercially important fishes such as Japanese sardine and walleye pollack. The fish resources represented thesignificant interannual and interedecadal variation. The change in food condition in the environment is considered
one of cause of the variation in fish resources. Therefore, the study of the food organisms is important to clarify
the mechanism of the variations. The zooplankton represents long-term variation corresponding to the climatechange such as the regime shifts and global warming. However, the effect of the change in zooplankton to fish
resources is not well understood, because there are few studies based on viewpoint of food for fish resources.
For example, variation of Neocalanus has been well studied in the Kuroshio-Oyashio transition waters because
it is dominant zooplankton by biomass. However the larvae and juvenile of the Japanese sardine dose not utilize
Neocalanus well. The sardine mainly utilizes small size copepod during their early life period. However thevariation in small size copepod is not well studied. To clarify the effect to the change in zooplankton, study ofthe food habit of fish resources is need. We will present long-term variations in zooplankton in the western North
Pacific, and how to investigate the zooplankton to understand the fish resource change.

25 April, 16:10

Long-term variation in copepod community structure in the Kuroshio area, off southern Japan
Mikiko Kuriyama, Hiroya Sugisaki, Yuichi Hirota, Tadafumi Ichikawa, Hiroshi Itoh and Hiroshi Horikawa
Abstract N/A

25 April, 16:30 (W6-6419)

Response of large grazing copepods to climate-oceanographic changes in the western
subarctic Pacific Ocean
Toru Kobari1, Kazuaki Tadokoro2, Hiroya Sugisaki3 and Hiroshi Ito4
1

2
3
4

Fisheries Biology and Oceanography, Faculty of Fisheries, Kagoshima University, 4-5-20 Shimoarata, Kagoshima, 890-0056, Japan
E-mail: kobari@fish.kagoshima-u.ac.jp
Mixed Water Region Fishery Oceanography Division, Tohoku National Fisheries Research Institute, Japan
Marine Productivity Division, National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Japan
Suidosha Co. Ltd., JapanTo evaluate their response to climate-oceanographic conditions, interannual variations in seasonal abundance of Eucalanus
bungii were investigated in zooplankton samples collected from the Oyashio Current system from 1960 to 2002. Large
decadal changes were observed in seasonal timing and population age-structure. During the early 1970s and 1990s, E.
bungii were abundant until mid-summer, but during the late 1970s and early 1980s, the season of maximum abundance
was limited to spring and early summer. From the late 1970s to early 1980s, spring–summer abundance of newly recruited
young copepodites (C1–C2) declined significantly, and an even more pronounced decline was observed for the abundanceof the late copepodite stages (C3–C5). Monthly population structure showed that young of the year stopped development
at C3 during the late 1970s to early 1980s, but molted into late copepodite stages in the other decades. Seasonal weakeningof the Aleutian Low Pressure System estimated from North Pacific Index (NPI) was rapid during the late 1970s to early
1980s, and the NPI was positively correlated with phosphate concentrations at sea surface, spring–summer abundance ofthe young copepodites stages, and the extended duration of the season of high abundance. These results suggest that the
decadal decline of copepod abundance originated at the early life stages, and was associated with a shift of atmospheric andoceanographic conditions. As possible biological mechanisms, we propose reduced egg production, lower survival for the
portion of the annual cohort with late birth date, and overwintering of the survivors at younger stages.

238

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Author Index
B

Abdul-Aziz, Omar I. 120
Abdullah, Hasan M. 205
Abecassis, Melanie 103
Abe, Kunio 177
Acha, Nkemasong Samuel 63
Adachi, Hiroyasu 225
Adams, Peter B. 222
Adlandsvik, Bjørn 127
Agboola, Julius I. 170
Agenbag, Kobus 166
Agler, Beverly A. 226
Agostini, Vera N. 138
Ahirrao, Sunil D. 136
Ainsworth, Cameron H. 150
Aita, Maki N. 129, 195
Alarcón, Rubén 115
Albouy, Camille 65
Alheit, Jürgen 51, 154, 160
Alidina, Hussein 229
Allee, Rebecca J. 85
Allen, J. Icarus 84, 87, 88
Allison, Eddie 84
Allison, Edward H. 50
Alves, Oscar 67
A’mar, Z. Teresa 103
Ambe, Daisuke 159, 161, 188
Andersen, Bo Sølgaard 182
Andersson, Andreas J. 208
Andersson, Carin 165
Andonegi, Eider 167
Andrello, M. 99
Andrews, Alex 130, 220
Anh, Nguyen Hai 84
Anh, Nguyen Hoang 84
Anh, Tran The 84
Anna, Suzy 166
Aoki, Kazuhiro 89
Arias-Schreiber, Milena 73, 178
Arkhipkin, Alexander 113
Aro, Eero 58
Asai, Takamasa 125
Asch, Rebecca G. 131
Aseeva, Nadezhda L. 131
Atwood, Elizabeth 112
Auth, Toby D. 143
Awaya, Yoshio 205
Aydin, Kerim 61, 90, 127, 138
Ayling, Tony 124
Azumaya, Tomonori 60, 219

Bachri, Samsul 68
Badenhorst, Awie 166
Badjeck, Marie-Caroline 77, 84
Bahri, Tarub 166
Bakun, Andrew 51
Ballón, Michael 71
Banks, Stuart 228
Bao, Xianwen 91
Barange, Manuel 61, 75, 84, 88, 163
Barbieri, María Angela 200
Barrera-Oro, Esteban 199
Bartolino, Valerio 99, 101, 111
Bastardie, Francois 182
Basug, Elen R. 183
Beacham, Terry D. 116
Beard, Russell H. 85
Beare, Doug 100
Beare, Doug J. 230
Begossi, Alpina 179
Belkin, I. 78
Bell, Johann D. 177
Bellier, Edwige 108
Belonenko, Tatyana V. 65
Beltran, Francisco 74
Ben Rais Lasram, Frida 97, 108
Berge, Jørgen 117
Berli, Thomas 96
Bernal, Miguel 57, 217
Bertrand, Arnaud 71, 157
Bevacqua, D. 99
Bi, Hongsheng 192, 235
Biggs, Reinette 151
Black, Bryan A. 132
Blamey, Laura 79
Blanchard, Julia L. 61, 75, 84, 97, 136, 230
Blenckner, Thorsten 58, 151
Bograd, Steven J. 74, 132
Boldt, Jennifer 107
Bondarenko, Mikhail 64
Bond, Nicholas A. 59, 61, 70, 73, 82, 87, 90
Borges, Maria de Fátima 119
Botsford, Louis W. 98
Bouchon, Marilou 73, 178
Brander, Keith 150
Brewin, Robert 132
Brodeur, Richard D. 139, 143, 237
Brodziak, Jon 60
Brown, Chris 150
Brown, Rebecca 176
Bruno, John 150
Bublitz, Ralf 170
Buchheister, Andre 140

Author IndexA

239

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Buckley, Lauren 150
Burrows, Michael T. 150
Busch, D. Shallin 150

C
Ca, Vu Thanh 84
Campos, Aida 119
Campos, Maria Rebecca A. 169
Candy, John R. 116
Cardinale, Massimiliano 111
Casillas, Edmundo 192, 235
Casini, Michele 101, 111, 148Castillo, Ramiro 157
Castillo-Jordán, Claudio 109, 115
Castro, Leonardo R. 203
Catalán, Ignacio A. 55
Cerviño, Santiago 99
Chabanet, Pascale 141
Chai, Fei 194
Chaigneau, Alexis 71
Chang, Chih-Wei 69
Chang, Feng-Chen 85
Chang, Mei-Yu 110
Chang, Yi 164
Chang, Yi-Jay 82, 148
Chang, Yuan-Mou 69
Checkley, David M., Jr. 56, 57, 131, 210, 237
Chen, Hui-Lun 202
Chen, Shih-Chin 126
Chen, Xueen 91
Chen, Yong 82
Chen, Yu-Kai 148
Cheng, Wei 90
Chernoivanova, Lydmila A. 103
Cheung, William L. 50, 52, 78, 97, 139, 150
Chien, Huang-Pin 130
Choi, Young Min 167
Christian, James 207
Ciannelli, Lorenzo 143
Claramunt, Gabriel 203
Clarke, M. Elizabeth 110
Cochrane, Kevern L. 166
Cockcroft, Andy 228
Coetzee, Janet C. 55, 112, 117, 166
Condie, Scott 191
Cooke, Steven 105
Copeland, Mike 166
Courtney, Dean 60
Cubillos, Luis A. 109, 203
Culioli, Jean M. 65
Curchitser, Enrique N. 57, 59, 61, 89, 90, 142, 188,
189, 217
Cury, Philippe 80, 137

240

D
Danielson, Seth 152
Darnitskiy, Vladimir B. 156, 199
De Guzman, Asuncion 168
Demarcq, Hervé 137
De Marzo, Adam S. 211
Denman, Kenneth L. 57, 207
de Young, Cassandra 166
Dickey-Collas, Mark 72
Diposaptono, Subandono 166
Dissanayake, Awantha 213
Dixson, Danielle L. 140, 210
Dmitrieva, Elena V. 90
Donelson, Jennifer M. 114, 210
Dorman, Jeff 132
Dorner, Brigitte 222
Doubleday, Zoe 227
Dougherty, Annette 113
Drake, Douglas L. 222
Drakeford, Ben 84
Dransfeld, Leonie 113
Dressel, Sherri 107
Drinkwater, Kenneth 70, 151
Duarte, Carlos 150
Duffy-Anderson, Janet T. 112
Dulcic, Jakov 148
Dulvy, Nicholas K. 61, 69, 84, 152, 230
Dunne, John P. 52, 129, 133, 138, 139E
Echevin, Vincent 157
Edgar, Graham 176, 228
Edwards, Christopher A. 57
Efani, Anthon 201
Eigaard, Ole 182
Eisner, Lisa B. 53, 130, 152, 220
Emori, Seita 197
Endo, Hisashi 211
Endo, Yoshinari 143
Engelhard, Georg 97
England, Phillip 191
English, Karl 105
Evans, Richard 141
Evenson, Dani F. 220

F
Falk-Petersen, Stig 117
Fan, Jingfeng 204
Farley, Ed V., Jr. 220
Farley, Edward W. 53, 130, 152
Farrell, Anthony 105
Fauzi, Akhmad 166
Feinberg, Leah R. 142, 236, 237
Fennel, Wolfgang 215
Fernandes, Jose Antonio 167
Fiechter, Jerome 57, 217

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

G
Gagliano, Monica 210
Galanin, Dmitry A. 169
Gann, Jeanette 152
Gao, Shan 115, 194
Garces, Len R. 183
Garcia, Serge M. 175
Gardmark, Anna 58
Gardner, Caleb 53, 124, 172
Gasalla, Maria A. 78, 193
Gaspar, Philippe 157
Gatica, Claudio 115
Geffen, Audrey J. 110, 165
Geiger, Harold J. 222, 225
Genner, Martin J. 136
Gibbs, Mark 79
Gibson, Georgina A. 61, 90, 188
Glebova, Svetlana Yu. 157
Gnanadesikan, Anand 189
Gong, Yeong 134
Goto, Tomoaki 171
Goto, Tsuneo 155
Graham, Nicholas 141
Grbec, Branka 148
Guan, Chunjiang 204
Guilhaumon, Francois 97
Guimei, Liu 115
Guo, Xinyu 188
Guzman, Ruth 183

H
Hague, Merran 105
Hair, Cathy 76
Hale, Lillian 96
Haltuch, Melissa A. 110

Han, Gengchen 204
Hara, Takeya 116
Hardman-Mountford, Nick 132
Hare, Jonathan A. 69, 108, 190
Hare, Steven R. 106
Harle, James 84, 88
Harto, Agung Budi 68
Hartog, Jason R. 67
Harvey, Christopher 138
Hasegawa, Akira 197
Hasegawa, Toru 190, 196
Hashioka, Taketo 129, 195, 196
Hastings, Alan 98
Hasumi, Hiroyasu 68, 88, 197
Hátún, Hjámar 104
Haward, Marcus 53, 172
Hay, Douglas 120
Haynie, Alan 76, 82
Hedström, Kate 57, 61, 89, 90, 188, 189, 217
Heikinheimo, Outi 58
Heintz, R. 220
Helms, Alicia R. 211
Hepburn, Mark 191
Hermann, Albert J. 61, 90, 188
Hernandez, Olga 157
Herrick, Samuel 75
Hidaka, Kiyotaka 134, 190, 196
Hidalgo, Manuel 99, 148
Hiddink, Jan G. 230
Hiddink, Jan Geert 137
Hien, Vu Thi 84
Hinch, Scott 105
Hinrichsen, Hans-Harald 104
Hirata, Takafumi 132
Hiratsuka, Yuji 125
Hirawake, Toru 184
Hiroe, Yutaka 134
Hirota, Yuichi 107, 134, 238
Hjøllo, Solfrid Sætre 56, 93
Hobday, Alistair J. 53, 67, 81, 172, 185, 227
Hofmann, Eileen 163
Høie, Hans 165
Holbrook, Neil 185
Holland, Matthew D. 98
Holliday, Ingrid L. 183
Hollowed, Anne B. 59, 73, 82
Holmes, Robert 61, 75, 84, 88
Holst, Jens Christian 104
Holt, Carrie 110
Holt, Jason 84, 88
Holt, Kendra 222
Honda, Osamu 122
Horikawa, Hiroshi 238
Hori, Masakazu 96
Horne, John K. 112
Hoshikawa, Hiroshi 141
Houghton, Bob 170

Author Index

Field, John C. 132
Figurkin, Alexander L. 67, 131
Fisher, Joseph P. 123
Flostrand, Linnea 107
Fogarty, Michael J. 98
Folkvord, Arild 165
Fonseca, Paulo 119
Foreman, Michael 92, 138
Fregene, Tosan 182
Freije, Hugo 146
Fréon, Pierre 56
Frusher, Stewart 53, 81, 124, 172, 176, 185, 227
Fujii, Masahiko 72, 180
Fujisawa, Toshiro 116
Fujiwara, Makoto 225
Fukamichi, Kinuyo 125
Fukuda, Atsuko 209
Fukuda, Masahiro 52
Fukuwaka, Masa-aki 105, 219
Fulton, Elizabeth A. 135
Funamoto, Tetsuichiro 60

241Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Howell, Daniel 167
Howell, Evan A. 129, 139
Hsieh, Hung-Yen 130, 144
Hsu, Chih-Chieh 69
Hufnagl, Marc 72, 100
Hufthammer, Anne Karin 165
Hughes, Kathryn 113
Hui, Wang 231
Huntington, Henry P. 179
Hunt, George L., Jr. 53, 130, 233
Huo, Chuanlin 204
Huret, Martin 54
Hurrell, James 51
Hurtado-Ferro, Felipe 184
Huse, Geir 56
Hutchings, Larry 118, 144, 166, 228

I
Ianelli, James N. 81, 82
Ichikawa, Tadafumi 134, 238
Igeta, Yosuke 100
Ikeya, Tohru 145
Ingram, Walter 102
Irigoien, Xabier 167
Irvine, James R. 219
Ishchenko, Maxim A. 156, 199
Ishida, Akio 195
Ishida, Yukimasa 225
Ishii, Masayoshi 197
Ishimatsu, Atsushi 96, 125, 209, 213
Ishimura, Gakushi 75
Ito, Hiroshi 238
Ito, Shin-ichi 57, 120, 135, 190, 191, 196, 216, 217
Itoh, Hiroshi 238
Itoh, Sachihiko 68, 118, 145, 184
Itoh, Yasuo 114

JJadaud, Angélique 99
Jang, Chan Joo 51
Janout, Markus 152
Jarre, A. 144
Jennings, Sarah 53, 172
Jennings, Simon 61, 84, 136, 141, 230
Jessen, Sabine 229
Jimenez, Cesaria 168
Johansen, Geir Odd 127
Johnson, Craig 227
Johnson, Magnus 170
Johnson, Mark P. 113, 136
Jordan, Chris 222
Jørgensen, Christian 95
Juanes, Francis 98
Jump, Christina M. 140
Jung, Sukgeun 121, 134

242

K
Kachok, René 173
Kaeriyama, Masahide 83, 105, 220
Kaev, Alexander M. 109
Kaga, Toshiki 219
Kambourska, Lyudmila 148
Kameda, Takahiko 107, 159, 190, 196
Kamimura, Yasuhiro 96
Kang, Hyunwoo 172
Kang, Sukyung 73, 134, 172
Kang, Young Shil 134
Kaplunenko, Dmitry D. 204
Katayama, Satoshi 126
Katsukawa, Yuu 123, 126
Kawabata, Atsushi 135
Kawaguchi, So 96, 213
Kawamiya, Michio 52, 187
Kawamura, Hideyuki 195
Kawamura, Tomohiko 125, 126, 141
Kerrigan, Brigid 124
Kidokoro, Hideaki 100, 155
Kilmatov, Talgat R. 90
Kimball, Matthew E. 69
Kim, Bo Kwang 214
Kim, Dong Seon 173
Kim, Hyun Woo 213, 214
Kim, Jin Koo 171, 173
Kim, Jung Jin 119, 172
Kim, Suam 73, 119, 172
Kim, Yeonghye 171
Kimoto, Masahide 197
Kimura, Ryo 212
King, Jacquelynne R. 138
King, Robert 96
Kinoshita, Hideaki 114
Kishi, Michio J. 57, 63, 83, 191, 216, 220
Kita, Jun 212
Kjesbu, Olav Sigurd 95
Klovach, Nataliya 64
Kobari, Toru 238
Kokubu, Yutaka 52
Koldunov, Aleksey V. 65, 194
Komatsu, Kosei 159, 161, 190, 196
Komatsu, Teruhisa 52, 200
Komuro, Yoshiki 197
Konda, Shunsuke 68
Kopprio, Germán A. 146
Kornilovs, Georgs 101
Koslow, Tony 57, 146
Kotenev, Boris 64
Krause, Besse 124
Kristiansen, Trond 70
Krovnin, Andrei S. 64
Krupnova, Tatiana 165
Krylova, Svetlana 224
Kullas, Tiit 192
Kurihara, Haruko 96, 125, 209, 213

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Kuriyama, Mikiko 134, 238
Kuroda, Hiroshi 89
Kurogi, Masao 88
Kusaka, Akira 60
Kuwata, Akira 190, 196
Kvamme, Cecilie 127

L

Macario, Angelo 168
MacCall, Alec 57
Mackas, David 51
MacKenzie, Brian J. 230
MacNeil, M. Aaron 66, 141
Madula, Juliet 168
Makino, Mitsutaku 135
Mansbridge, Jim 191
Mantua, Nathan J. 120, 221
Manzano, Marlene 118
Maravelias, Christos D. 121
Margonski, Piotr 111
Marshall, Paul 124
Martija, Elvira 183
Martins, Eduardo 105
Masson, Diane 92
Massutí, Enric 99
Matear, Richard 67
Matveev, Vladimir 165
Maury, Olivier 137
Maynard, Jeff 124
McCay, Bonnie J. 175
McClanahan, Tim 141
McClatchie, Sam 57, 107
McCormick, Mark I. 114, 140
McFarlane, Gordon 138
McKinnell, Skip 142
Meekan, Mark 140
Megrey, Bernard A. 57, 120, 149, 191, 216, 217
Meir, Eli 221
Melnikov, Viktor V. 91
Mendelssohn, Roy 54, 74
Menkel, Jennifer 158
Merino, Gorka 75, 84
Merryfield, William 92
Michalsen, Kathrine 95
Mier, Kathy 113
Mikami, Atsuko 52
Miller, Arthur 51
Miller, Kristina 105
Mills, Kyra L. 132
Min, Gi-Sik 171
Minowa, Yasushi 114
Mitani, Isamu 125
Miura, Masao 116
Miyakoshi, Yasuyuki 225
Miyazawa, Yasumasa 188
Mizuno, Ken-ichiro 96
Mizuno, Shizuha 52
Mochizuki, Takashi 197
Mohan, C.V. 76
Molinero, Juan Carlos 101, 148
Möllmann, Christian 58
Montenegro, Alvaro 229
Moore, Pippa 150
Morales-Zárate, María Verónica 173

Author Index

Ladd, Carol 59, 112
Lamb, Jesse F. 123
La Mesa, Mario 199
Lamkin, John 102
Lam, Vicky W.Y. 78
Lan, Kuo-Wei 101, 164
Lapointe, Michael 105
Laptikhovsky, Vladimir 113
Lara, Rubén J. 146
Large, William 89, 189
Larsen, David P. 222
Lartey-Antwi, Lailah G. 208
Lazaryuk, Alexander Yu. 204
Leaman, Bruce M. 106
Lee, Chung-Il 172
Lee, Jae Bong 73, 79, 149, 167
Lee, Jong Hee 167
Lee, Kuo-Ten 164
Lee, Kuo-Tien 231
Lee, Ming-An 101, 164
Lee, Sang-Ki 102
Lee, Warren 207
Lehman, Andreas 148
Lehodey, Patrick 103, 157
Leider, Steven A. 222
Le Loc’h, François 65
Lemos, Ricardo 74
Lepesevich, Yuri 158
Le Quesne, Will 214
Letourneur, Yves 141
Lincoln, Richard H. 222
Lindegren, Martin 58, 111
Linderholm, Hans 111
Lind, Sigrid 127
Link, Jason S. 108
Lin, Xinzhen 204
Liu, Chun Li 160
Liu, Deng-Cheng 130
Liu, Dong-Chung 144, 148
Liu, Guimei 111, 194
Llope, Marcos 148
Lluch-Cota, Salvador 57, 173
Lobanov, Vyacheslav B. 204
Loeng, Harald 104
Loots, Christophe 108
Lopes, Miguel J.A. 205
Lo, Veronica 229
Lo, Wen-Tseng 130, 144
Lu, Hsueh-Jung 101, 231
Lucey, Sean 160
Lyle, Jeremy 176

M

243

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Moreira, Ana 119
Morgan, Cheryl A. 123, 192, 235
Mori, Masato 197
Mori, Yasuo 126
Morinaga, Kenji 134
Morovic, Mira 148
Morozov, Anatoly 64
Morris, John F.T. 116
Morrison, John 92
Moss, Jamal H. 53, 80
Mouillot, David 65, 97
Moury, George 64
Muelbert, José H. 233
Mueter, Franz J. 59, 82, 229
Muhammad, Sahri 181
Muhling, Barbara 102
Müller-Karulis, Bärbel 58
Mullon, Christian 75
Munday, Philip L. 114, 140, 210
Mundy, Phillip R. 220
Murphy, J. 220
Murzina, Svetlana A. 117

N
Nagata, Mitsuhiro 225
Nakamachi, Miwa 190, 196
Nakamura, Hisashi 187
Nakamura, Masako 207
Nakamura, Yukio 114
Nakata, Hideaki 200
Nakata, Kaoru 134
Nakategawa, Hisashi 123
Napp, Jeffrey M. 53, 130
Nash, Richard D.M. 72, 100
Navarro, Eduardo 109
Nedreaas, Kjell 165
Nemova, Nina N. 117
Neuenfeldt, Stefan 58
Nguyen, Nhung T.H. 168
Nicol, Stephen 96
Nielsen, Jennifer L. 80, 226
Nielsen, J. Rasmus 182
Niiranen, Susa 58, 151
Niki, Masato 162
Ninemann, Ulysses S. 165
Ninh, Nguyen Huu 230Ñiquen, Miguel 73, 153, 178
Nishida, Hiroshi 122
Nishihara, Gregory N. 133
Nishikawa, Haruka 118, 145
Nishimura, Akira 60
Njang, Thomas Tazoche 63
Njaya, Friday J. 180
Nojiri, Yukihiro 212
Nonaka, Masami 135, 187
Norman-López, Ana 77, 79
Novo-Henriques, Romina 228

244

Nursey-Bray, Melissa 53, 172
Nye, Janet A. 108, 160

O
Oakes, Stephanie 85
O’Connor, Mary 150
Ohki, Shun 207
Öhman, Marcus 141
Ohnuki, Tsutomu 177
Okada, Naosuke 72, 129, 195
Okamura, Hiroshi 107, 123
Okazaki, Yuji 147, 190, 196, 238
Okey, Thomas A. 139, 150, 229
Okunishi, Takeshi 57, 129, 135, 190, 195, 196, 216
Okuno, Akira 161
Olesiuk, Peter 107
Olsen, Anthony R. 222
Omitoyin, Siyanbola Adewumi 182
Ommer, Rosemary 163
Onitsuka, Toshihiro 212
Ono, Tsuneo 145, 190, 196, 212
Oozeki, Yoshioki 107
Opdal, Anders Frugård 95
Orencio, Pedcris M. 180
Ortega-García, Sofía 159
Ortiz, Ivonne 61, 90
Osafune, Satoshi 68
Oshima, Kazuhiro 72
Overland, James E. 51, 87, 138

P
Pal, Badal 92
Pandolfi, John 150
Pankajakshan, T. 170
Papaioannou, Eva 164
Papetti, Chiara 199
Parken, Charles K. 222
Parker, Laura 125
Parmesan, Camille 150
Pascoe, Sean 77
Patarnello, Tomaso 199
Patrona, Luc Della 76
Patterson, David 105
Paul, Dontsop 182
Pauly, Daniel 52
Pavlyuchkov, Vladimir 165
Payne, Mark 104
Peck, Myron A. 55, 72
Pecl, Gretta 53, 81, 172, 176, 185, 227
Peña, Cecilia 153
Perez, Maripaz L. 183
Perry, Allison L. 230
Perry, R. Ian 163
Peterman, Randall M. 58, 222
Peterson, Jay O. 161, 236
Peterson, William T. 123, 142, 143, 158, 161, 192,
235, 236, 237

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Q
Quaas, Martin F. 104, 164
Quincoces, Iñaki 167
Quintas, Ana R.P. 205

R
Radiarta, I Nyoman 184
Rahmawati, Sary 201
Ralston, Stephen 132
Readdy, Lisa J. 69
Reason, Chris 228
Reed, Thomas E. 221
Reglero, Patricia 55
Repnikova, A.R. 169
Revill, Hilary 53, 172
Reygondeau, Gabriel 137
Rice, Jake 175
Richardson, Anthony J. 150
Righton, David 95
Rijnsdorp, Adriaan D. 98, 100, 137
Robinson, James 96
Robinson, William 79
Rock, Jennifer 199

Rodgers, Jeffrey D. 222
Rodríguez-Sánchez, Rubén 118, 159
Rodwell, Lynda 75, 84
Rogachev, Konstantin 154
Rohadi, Erfan 200
Rosa, A.L. 106
Rose, Kenneth A. 57, 120, 191, 217
Rosenberg, Andrew A. 175
Ross, Pauline 125
Rothschild, Brian J. 155
Ruggerone, Gregory T. 80, 226
Rumrill, Steven S. 211
Rykaczewski, Ryan R. 133, 215, 235
Ryu, Jung Hwa 173

Author Index

Petihakis, George 216
Petitgas, Pierre 54
Pfeiffer, Lisa 76
Phillips, Michael 76
Pickering, Timothy 76
Pido, Michael D. 183
Pilling, Graham M. 69, 84
Pincinato, R. 78
Piner, Kevin 60
Pinnegar, John K. 69, 97, 214
Piou, Cyril 224
Plagányi, Éva 79
Planque, Benjamin 108
Pohlmann, Thomas 72, 91
Politikos, Dimitris 216
Polito, P.S. 193
Pollani, Annika 216
Poloczanska, Elvira S. 76, 79, 150, 176
Polovina, Jeffrey J. 103, 129, 139
Polunin, Nicholas 141
Ponia, Ben 76
Ponwith, Bonnie J. 85
Pörtner, Hans-O. 95
Potts, Warren 228
Powell, T. Zack 132
Premjith, Sekharapilla 147
Prévost, Etienne 224
Prime, Mark 170
Prischepa, Boris 158, 224
Prusov, Sergey 224
Pujolar, J. Marti 99
Punt, André E. 53, 102, 103, 110, 172
Purwanti, Pudji 181

S
Saborido-Rey, Fran 99
Saha, Sujan 163
Saito, Hiroaki 135, 190, 196
Saitoh, Sei-ichi 68, 184, 225
Sajeev, R. 170
Sakai, Kazuhiko 207
Sakaji, Hideo 100
Sakamoto, Takashi T. 129, 195, 197
Sakurai, Yasunori 106
Sakuramoto, Kazumi 202, 203
Salau, Kehinde 209
Salma, Umme 213
Samhouri, Jameal F. 150
Samoylova, Elena 224
Sanchez-Camacho, Maria 150
Sandø, Anne Britt 93
Sandvik, Anne D. 93
Sanso, Bruno 74
Santamnina, Jayrald 168
Santora, Jarrod A. 132
Santos, Miguel 119
Santurtún, Marina 99
Sarmiento, Jorge 52
Sartimbul, Aida 181, 200, 201
Sasai, Yoshikazu 118
Sasaki, Hideharu 118, 187
Sato, O. 193
Sato-Okoshi, Waka 143
Sauer, Warwick 81, 228, 232
Schindler, Daniel E. 221
Schirripa, Michael J. 85, 102
Schlaff, Audrey 124
Schmidt, Jörn O. 104, 124, 164
Schoeman, David 150
Schön, Pieter-Jan 136
Schroeder, Alexander 100
Schroeder, Isaac D. 132
Schweigert, Jacob F. 107, 120
Schwing, Franklin B. 74, 132
Scott, Lucy 232
Scutt-Phillips, Joe 69, 97

245

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Senina, Inna 103, 157
Seo, Hyunju 83, 105, 220
Sergeenko, V.A. 169
Setoguma, Takumi 114
Setou, Takashi 89, 159, 188
Setyohadi, Daduk 201
Shannon, L.J. 144
Shaw, C. Tracy 142, 236
Shaw, Paul 228
Sheppard, Charles 141
Shigemitsu, Masahito 129, 195
Shillington, Frank 228
Shimizu, Ikutaro 177
Shimizu, Manabu 89, 134, 159, 161
Shimoyama, Satomi 202
Shiogama, Hideo 197
Shirakihara, Kunio 184
Shirayama, Yoshihisa 208
Shoji, Jun 96
Shono, Hiroshi 122
Shuford, Rebecca 85
Silva, Cristina 119
Silva, Jose M.P. 205
Silvano, Renato A.M. 179
Simpson, Stephen D. 136
Sims, David W. 136
Skewes, Tim 79Skjæraasen, Jon Egil 95
Skogen, Morten D. 56
Slotte, Aril 104
Smirnov, Andrey A. 67
Soares, Muri 79
Somarakis, Stylianos 216
Somot, Samuel 97
Song, Xingyu 194
Soto, Doris 166
Soulen, Heather L. 143
Southgate, Paul 76
Spillman, Claire M. 67
Stabeno, Phyllis J. 53, 90, 130
Staritsyn, Dmitry K. 66
Stefansson, Gunnar 167
Steiner, Nadja 207
Stenseth, Nils Christian 99
Stephen, Rosamma 135
Stiansen, Jan Erik 127
Stock, Charles A. 138
Stockhausen, William 70
Struski, Caroline 54
Strüssmann, Carlos A. 146
Stuart-Smith, Rick 176
Su, Nan-Jay 102
Su, Wei-Cheng 126, 130, 144, 148
Sugie, Koji 211
Sugimoto, Takashige 162
Sugisaki, Hiroya 134, 238
Suhara, Mika 126
Suh, Young-Sang 134

246

Sumaila, Ussif Rashid 50, 75, 78
Sumata, Hiroshi 129, 195, 196
Sun, Chi-Lu 82, 102, 126, 148
Sun, Song 111
Sundby, Svein 149
Suntsov, Andrey 146
Sutton, Stephen G. 176
Suursaar, Ülo 192
Suwa, Ryota 208
Suzuki, Atsushi 207
Suzuki, Koji 211
Suzuki, Naoki 202, 203
Suzuki, Tatsuo 129
Suzuki, Tatsuya 123
Svendsen, Einar 56
Sweatman, Hugh 124
Syamsuddin, Mega Laksmini 68
Sydeman, William J. 132, 150

T
Tadokoro, Kazuaki 145, 147, 190, 196, 225, 238
Taguchi, Bunmei 187
Takahashi, Kazutaka 135
Takahashi, Motomitsu 55, 122, 237
Takahashi, Satsuki 178
Takami, Hideki 141, 212
Takano, Akiko 122
Takasuka, Akinori 107, 161
Takayama, Katsumi 195
Takeda, Genta 143
Tanaka, Iori 195
Tanaka, Yukio 88
Tang, Dan Ling 160
Tanjung, Oky Rosita 201
Tanoue, Hideaki 52
Tatebe, Hiroaki 197
Teal, Lorna R. 100
Teitelbaum, Antoine 76
Temnykh, Alexandra V. 91
Terada, Ryuta 133
ter Hofstede, Remment 98, 137
Than, Hien T.H. 168
Thara, K.J. 170
Thiess, Mary E. 116
Thompson, Grant G. 103
Thompson, Sarah Ann 132
Thorrold, Simon 210
Thuiller, Wilfried 97
Tian, Yongjun 100, 155
Tidd, Alex 121
Tien, Nguyen Van 84
Tishchenko, Pavel Ya. 204
Titov, Oleg 158
Toan, Du Van 84
Tobin, Andrew 124
Tobin, Renae C. 176
Tokarev, Yuriy N. 91
Tokunaga, Takahisa 134

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

U
Ustinova, Elena I. 92, 103V
Vafeidis, Athanasios 164
Vakatov, Alexey V. 67
Valero, Juan L. 106
van der Lingen, Carl 118, 166, 228
van der Veer, Henk W. 100
van der Westhuizen, Jan 166
van Hal 100
van Leeuwen, Anieke 58
van Putten, Ingrid 53, 172
Varlamov, Sergey M. 188
Vasquez, Sebastian 115
Vdovin, Alexander N. 103
Velikanov, Anatoliy Ya. 153
Vetemaa, Markus 192
Villalobos, Héctor 118, 159
Virtue, Patti 96
Voss, Rüdiger 104, 124W
Wainwright, Thomas C. 221
Walbridge, Shaun 222
Wallace, Colin 116
Walsh, Peter 176
Wang, Chia-Hui 69, 202
Wang, Hui 111, 115, 194
Wang, Hui-Yu 98
Wang, Muyin 57, 59, 87, 90, 216
Wang, Yuheng 63
Waples, Robin S. 221
Wasserman, Larry 223
Watanabe, Ken 100
Watanabe, Ryan 107
Watanabe, Tatsuro 100, 195
Watanabe, Tomowo 134, 188
Watanabe, Yoshiro 122, 123, 125, 126, 141
Watanabe, Yukihiko 114
Watermeyer, Kate E. 144

Weber, Ed 107
Weeks, Scarla 79
Wei, Hao 63
Weitkamp, Laurie A. 221
Welch, David W. 116, 124
Wennhage, Hakan 111
Werner, Francisco E. 56, 57, 120, 163, 190, 191
Westgard, Trond 127
Wiebe, Peter H. 190
Wikström, Anders 58
Wilderbuer, Thomas 70
Wilson, Matthew T. 113, 140
Witbaard, Rob 100
Witthames, Peter R. 95
Wolf, Jon 89, 189
Won, Nam-Il 141
Woodworth, Phoebe 129
Wosnitza, Tania Mendo Aguilar 77
Wu, Chi-Lun 148
Wu, Long-Jing 130
Wuenschel, Mark J. 69

Author Index

Tomczak, Maciej 58
Tomiyama, Minoru 200
Toshito, Shun-ichi 96
Toyoda, Takahiro 197
Trenberth, Kevin E. 49
Triantafyllou, George 216
Trudel, Marc 116
Tseng, Chen-Te 126
Tsiaras, Kostas 216
Tsuchida, Shuji 114
Tsypysheva, Irina 165
Tucker, Strahan 116
Tulp, Ingrid 100
Twatwa, Nandipha M. 55, 112, 117
Tzeng, Wann-Nian 69

YYagisawa, Isao 225
Yamada, Hiroshi 116
Yamaguchi, Atsushi 130
Yamamoto, J. 106
Yamamoto, Masayuki 126
Yamamura, Orio 60
Yamanaka, Yasuhiro 72, 120, 129, 190, 195, 196
Yamano, Hiroya 72
Yamashita, Norio 155
Yamawaki, Arisa 159
Yamazaki, Hidekatsu 122
Yáñez, Eleuterio 200
Yang, Shengyun 71
Yara, Yumiko 72
Yasuda, Ichiro 68, 118, 135, 145
Yatsu, Akihiko 49, 122
Yeh, Sangwook 172
Yeh, Shean-Ya 85
Yeh, Su-Zan 82, 102, 126
Yemane, Dawit 55, 112, 117
Yokawa, Kotaro 122
Yoo, Sinjae 51, 172
Yoon, Jin-Hee 172
Yoon, Moon-Geun 171
Yoshie, Naoki 129, 190, 195, 196
Yoshimura, Takeshi 211
Yoshinari, Hiroshi 60
You, Chen-Feng 69
Yu, Huaming 91

247

Climate Change Effects on Fish and FisheriesZ
Zador, Stephani 127
Zane, L. 99, 199
Zhang, Chang Ik 79, 167
Zhang, Ruo Chao 188
Zhao, Liang 63
Zhou, Qiulin 71
Zimmerman, Christian E. 80
Zimmerman, Roger J. 85
Zuenko, Yury I. 103, 165, 232
Zvalinsky, Vladimir A. 204

248

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

Registrants(as of March 11)

Australia
Scott A. Condie
CSIRO Marine and AtmosphericResearch
GPO Box 1538
Hobart, Tasmania 7001
Australiascott.condie@csiro.au

Jennifer M. Donelson
School of Marine and Tropical
BiologyJames Cook University
Townsville, QLD 4811
Australia
jennifer.donelson@jcu.edu.au
Graham Edgar
Institute of Marine and Antarctic
Studies
University of Tasmania
GPO Box 252-49
Hobart, Tasmania 7001
Australia
g.edgar@utas.edu.au
Stewart D. Frusher
Tasmanian Aquaculture andFisheries Institute
University of Tasmania
Marine Research Laboratories
Nubeena Crescent, Taroona
Hobart, Tasmania 7053
Australia
stewart.frusher@utas.edu.au

Nicholas Graham
ARC Centre of Excellence forCoral Reef Studies
James Cook University
Townsville, QLD 4811
Australia
nick.graham@jcu.edu.au
Alistair J. Hobday
CSIRO
Castray Esplanade
Hobart, Tasmania 7001
Australia
alistair.hobday@csiro.au
Ingrid Holliday
Department of Primary Industries
Fisheries Victoria
22/1 Spring St.
Melbourne, Victoria 3001
Australia
Ingrid.L.Holliday@dpi.vic.gov.au
So Kawaguchi
Australian Antarctic Division
203 Channel Hwy
Kingston, Tasmania 7050
Australia
so.kawaguchi@aad.gov.au
M. Aaron MacNeil
Marine Biodiversity
Australian Institute of Marine
Science
PMB 3 Townsville MC
Townsville, QLD 4810
Australiaa.macneil@aims.gov.au

Philip L. Munday
ARC Centre of Excellence forCoral Reef Studies, and Schoolof Marine and Tropical Biology
James Cook University
Townsville, QLD 4814
Australia
philip.munday@jcu.edu.au
Ana Norman-López
Marine Climate Impacts andAdaptation
CSIRO
233 Middle St.
Cleveland, QLD 4163
Australia
ana.norman@csiro.au

Registrants

Campbell Davies
IMCAM Program
CSIRO Marine and AtmosphericResearch
Castray Esplanade
Hobart, Tasmania 7000
Australia
campbell.davies@csiro.au

Elizabeth A. Fulton
CSIRO Marine and AtmosphericResearch
P.O. Box 1538
Hobart, Tasmania 7001
Australia
beth.fulton@csiro.au

Melissa J. Nursey-Bray
National Centre for Marine
Conservation and Resource
Sustainability
University of Tasmania
Australian Maritime College
Locked Bag 1370, Newnham
Launceston, Tasmania 7248
Australia
m.nursey-bray@amc.edu.au
Gretta T. Pecl
Tasmanian Aquaculture andFisheries Institute
University of Tasmania
Private Bag 49
Hobart, Tasmania 7001
Australia
Gretta.Pecl@utas.edu.au
Éva E. Plagányi
CMAR, CSIRO
233 Middle St.
Brisbane, QLD 4163
Australia
Eva.Plaganyi-lloyd@csiro.au249

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Elvira S. Poloczanska
Climate Adaptation Flagship,
Marine and Atmospheric Research
CSIRO
P.O. Box 120
Cleveland, QLD 4163
Australia
elvira.poloczanska@csiro.au
Ana Rubio-Zuazo
Fisheries Research andDevelopment Corporation
29 Mullion Cl
Hornsby Heights, NSW 2077
Australia
anarubio.zuazo@gmail.com
Andrew J. Tobin
Fishing and Fisheries Research Centre
James Cook University
Townsville, QLD 4811
Australia
andrew.tobin@jcu.edu.au
Renae C. Tobin
Fishing and Fisheries Research Centre
School of Earth and Environmental
Sciences
James Cook University
Townsville, QLD 4811
Australia
renae.tobin@jcu.edu.au

BrazilCanadaMaria A. Gasalla
Fisheries Ecosystems Laboratory
Department of Biological
Oceanography
University of São Paulo Instituto
Oceanografico
Praça do Oceanografico, 191,
Cidade Universitaria
São Paulo, São Paulo 055080-900
Brazilmgasalla@usp.br

Robin Brown
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Institute of Ocean Sciences
P.O. Box 6000
Sidney, BC V8L 1J6
Canadarobin.brown@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

José H. MuelbertInstituto de Oceanografia
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande
Cx. Postal, 474
Rio Grande, RS 96201-900
Brazildocjhm@furg.br
Renato Azevedo Matias Silvano
Department of Ecology
Universidade Federal do Rio
Grande do Sul
Av. Bento Goncalves, CP 15007
Porto Alegre, RS 91501-970
Brazilrenato.silvano@ufrgs.br

Cameroon, Republic
Belgium
Philippe Moguedet
DG Research (RTD), Unit E4 Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries
and Aquaculture Research
Brussels, 1049
Belgium
philippe.moguedet@ec.europa.eu

Nkemasong S. Acha
Department of Fisheries
Action Centre for Rural Community
Development
P.O. Box 144, Buea
Buea, South West Region 237
Cameroonacercd98@yahoo.com
Tiku Felix
Aquaculture and Fishery
Action Centre for Rural Community
Development
Buea University Junction
Bp 3230 Messa-Ya
Buea, South West Region 237
Cameroonacercd72@yahoo.com

250

Kenneth L. Denman
Fisheries and Oceans Canada, andCanadian Centre for Climate
Modelling and Analysis
c/o University of Victoria
P.O. Box 3065, STN CSC
Victoria, BC V8W 3V6
CanadaKen.Denman@ec.gc.ca
Nicholas K. Dulvy
Department of Biological Sciences
Simon Fraser University
8888 University Dr.
Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6
Canadanick_dulvy@sfu.ca
Michael G. Foreman
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Institute of Ocean Sciences
P.O. Box 6000
Sidney, BC V8L 4B2
Canadamike.foreman@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
James R. Irvine
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Pacific Biological Station
3190 Hammond Bay Rd.
Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7
Canadajames.irvine@dfo-mpo.gc.ca
Jacquelynne R. King (Cancelled)
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Pacific Biological Station
3190 Hammond Bay Rd.
Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7
CanadaJackie.King@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Randall M. Peterman
School of Resource andEnvironmental Management
Simon Fraser University
8888 University Dr.
Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6
Canadapeterman@sfu.ca

Lingbo Li (Cancelled)
Fisheries Centre
The University of British Columbia
2202 Main Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4
Canadal.li@fisheries.ubc.ca

Jake Rice
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Ecosystem Science Directorate
Station 12S014, 200 Kent St.
Ottawa, ON K1A 0E6
CanadaJake.Rice@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Eduardo Martins
Forest Sciences
The University of British Columbia
320-3755 W 6th Ave.
Vancouver, BC V6R 1T9
Canadaegmartins@gmail.com

Jacob F. Schweigert
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Pacific Biological Station
3190 Hammond Bay Rd.
Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7
CanadaJake.Schweigert@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Skip McKinnell
Deputy Executive Secretary
PICES Secretariat
P.O. Box 6000
Sidney, BC V8L 4B2
Canadamckinnell@pices.int

Ussif Rashid Sumaila
Fisheries Centre
The University of British Columbia
2202 Main Mall
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4
Canadar.sumaila@fisheries.ubc.ca

Tom Okey
Ecosystem Sciences
West Coast Aquatic & UVic SES#3 4310 10th Ave.
Port Alberni, BC V9Y 4X4CanadaThomas.Okey@gmail.com

Strahan Tucker
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Pacific Biological Station
3190 Hammond Bay Rd.
Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7
Canadastrahan.tucker@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Ian Perry
Fisheries and Oceans Canada
Pacific Biological Station
3190 Hammond Bay Rd.
Nanaimo, BC V9T 6N7
CanadaIan.Perry@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Shigehiko Urawa
North Pacific Anadromous FishCommission
Suite 502, 889 West Pender St.
Vancouver, BC V6C 3B2
Canadaurawa@npafc.org

Chile
Claudio A. Castillo-Jordán
Department of Oceanography
University of Concepción
Las Vegas 1326, Cabina 9
Universidad de Concepción
Concepción, 4070423
Chileclacastillo@udec.cl
Luis A. Cubillos
Department of Oceanography
University of Concepción
Barrio Universitario s/nConcepción, 4070423
Chilelucubillos@udec.cl

Registrants

Vicky Wing Yee Lam
Fisheries Centre
The University of British Columbia
Fisheries Centre, Aquatic
Ecosystems Research Laboratory
Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z4
Canadav.lam@fisheries.ubc.ca

Francisco Plaza (Cancelled)
Av. Altamirano 1480
Valparáiso, 2360007
Chile
francisco.plaza@ucv.cl
Eleuterio Yanez
Escuela de Ciencas del Mar
Pontificia Universidad Católica deValparáiso
Av. Altamirano 1480
Valparáiso, Casilla 1020
Chile
eyanez@ucv.cl

China,
People’s Republic
Jingfeng Fan (Cancelled)
Department of Marine
Environmental Ecology
National Marine Environmental
Monitoring Center, SOA
42 Linghe St., Shahekou District
Dalian, Liaoning 116023
PR China
fanjingfeng@163.com

251

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Licheng Feng
National Marine Environmental
Forecasting Center, SOA
8 Dahuisi Rd., Haidian District
Beijing, 100081
PR China
fenglich@gmail.com

Hui Wang
National Marine Environmental
Forecasting Center, SOA
8 Dahuisi Rd., Haidian District
Beijing, 100081
PR China
wangh@nmefc.gov.cn

Qiulin Zhou
Third Institute of Oceanography, SOA
178 Daxue Rd.
Xiamen, Fujian 361005
PR China
zhou@public.xm.fj.cn

Shan Gao
National Marine Environmental
Forecasting Center, SOA
S8 Dahuisi Rd., Haidian District
Beijing, 100081
PR Chinagaoshan_shining@163.com

Zhang Gui Wang
Climate Change
National Research Center for Marine
Environmental Forecasting
8 Dahuisi Rd., Haidian District
Beijing, 100081
PR Chinazhangguiwang_4@yahoo.cn

China-Taipei

Chunjiang Guan
National Marine Environmental
Monitoring Center, SOA
42 Linghe St., Shahekou District
Dalian, Liaoning 116023
PR China
fb4680@people.com.cn
Chunli Liu (Cancelled)
180 West Wenhua Rd.
Weihai, Shandong 264209
PR Chinaliuchunli@china.com.cn
Guimei Liu
National Marine Environmental
Forecasting Center, SOA
8 Dahuisi Rd., Haidian District
Beijing, 100081
PR China
guimei.liu@umit.maine.edu
Zhou Qiulin
State Oceanic Administration
Third Institute of Oceanography
178 Daxue Rd.
Xiamen, Fujian 361005
PR China
zhou@public.xm.fj.cn
Yang Sheng-yun
182 Daxue Rd.
Xiamen, Fujian 361005
PR China
yangsy@xmu.edu.cn

252

Hao WeiCollege of Marine Science andEngineering
Tianjin University of Science andTechnology
29, 13th Ave., TEDA
Tianjin, 300457
PR China
weihao@ouc.edu.cn
Qianguo Xing (Cancelled)
Yantai Institute of Coastal Zone
Research
Chinese Academy of Sciences
17 Chunhui Rd., Laishan
Yantai, Shangdong 264003
PR China
qgxing@yic.ac.cn
Huaming Yu
College of Physical andEnvironmental Oceanography
Ocean University of China
238 Songling Rd.
Qingdao, Shandong 266100
PR China
huamingyu@gmail.com
Xuelei Zhang (Cancelled)
Center for Marine Ecology ResearchFirst Institute of Oceanography, SOA
6 Xian-Xia Ling Rd.
Hi-Tech Park, LaoShan District
Qingdao, Shandong 266061
PR Chinazhangxl@fio.org.cn

Feng-Chen Chang (Cancelled)
Institute of Oceanography
National Taiwan University
1-Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd.
Taipei, Taiwan 106
China-Taipei
fengchen@ofdc.org.tw
Yi-Jay Chang
1-Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd.
Taipei, 106
China-Taipei
chisboy@gmail.com
Yu-Kai Chen
Marine Fisheries Division
Fisheries Research Institute199 Hou-Ih Rd.
Keelung, 20246
China-Taipei
ykchen@mail.tfrin.gov.tw
Hung-Yen Hsieh
Coastal and Offshore Resources
Research Center
Fisheries Research Institute
1-1, Yugang N. 1st Rd.
Kaohsiung, 80672
China-Taipei
hyhsieh@mail.tfrin.gov.tw
Chih-Chieh Hsu
Earth Dynamic System ResearchCenter, NCKU
1 University Rd.
Tainan, 701
China-Taipei
d94b45003@ntu.edu.twClimate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Kuo-Wei Lan
Environmental Biology Fisheries
ScienceNational Taiwan Ocean University
2 Pei-Ning Rd.
Keelung, 20224
China-Taipei
aaman72422@msn.com
Ming-An Lee
Department of Environmental
Biology and Fisheries Science
National Taiwan Ocean University
2 Pei-Ning Rd.
Keelung, 20224
China-Taipei
malee@mail.ntou.edu.tw

Chia-Hui Wang
Earth Dynamic System ResearchCenterNational Cheng Kung University
1 University Rd.
Tainan, 704
China-Taipei
chwang@mail.ncku.edu.tw
Su-Zan Yeh
Institute of Oceanography
National Taiwan University
1-Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd.
Taipei, 10617
China-Taipei
suzanyeh@ntu.edu.tw

Denmark

Hsueh-Jung Lu
Environmental Biology and
Fishery Science
National Taiwan Ocean University
2 Pei-Ning Rd.
Keelung, 20224
China-Taipei
hjlu@ntou.edu.tw

Francois Bastardie
Technical University of Denmark
DTU-AquaCharlottenlund Castle
Charlottenlund, DK-2920
Denmark
fba@aqua.dtu.dk

Nan-Jay Su
Institute of Oceanography
National Taiwan University
1-Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd., Rm. 413
Taipei, 10617
China-Taipei
nanjay@ntu.edu.tw

Keith Brander (Cancelled)
Technical University of Denmark
National Institute of Aquatic
Resources
Charlottenlund Slot, Jægersborg Allé 1
Charlottenlund, DK-2920
Denmark
kbr@aqua.dtu.dk

Chi-Lu Sun
Institute of Oceanography
National Taiwan University
1-Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd.
Taipei, 10617
China-Taipei
chilu@ntu.edu.tw

Adolf K. Kellermann
Science ProgrammeInternational Council for the
Exploration of the Sea (ICES)
H.C. Andersens Blvd. 44-46
Copenhagen V, DK-1553
Denmark
adi@ices.dk

Martin O. Lindegren
National Institute of Aquatic
Resources
Technical University of Denmark
Charlottenlund Castle
Charlottenlund, DK-2920
Denmark
mli@aqua.dtu.dk

Egypt
Ouwashola Bayo Popoola
Department of Fisheries
International British Institute13 Qumbis St.
Heliopolis, Cairo 11451
Egypt
ibinstitutecairo@yahoo.com

Registrants

Wen-Tseng Lo
Institute of Marine Biotechnology
and Resources
National Sun Yat-Sen University
70 Lien-Hai Rd.
Kaohsiung, Taiwan 80424
China-Taipei
lowen@mail.nsysu.edu.tw

Chen-Te Tseng
Fisheries Research Institute199 Hou-Ih Rd.
Keelung, 202
China-Taipei
cttseng@mail.tfrin.gov.tw

Estonia
Ulo Suursaar
Estonian Marine Institute,
University of Tartu
Maealuse 14
Tallinn, 12618
Estonia
ulo.suursaar@ut.ee

FranceArnaud Bertrand (Cancelled)
IRD
CRH, Ave. Jean Monnet
Sète, 34203
FranceArnaud.Bertrand@ird.fr
Philippe M. Cury
IRD
CRH, Ave. Jean Monnet, B.P. 171
Sète, 34203
Francephilippe.cury@ird.fr

253

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Olga Hernandez
CLS
8-10, rue Hermès, Parc
Technologique du Canal
Ramonville Saint-Agne, 31520
Franceohernandez@cls.fr
Pierre Petitgas
Ecology and Models for Fisheries
Science
IFREMERRue de l’Ile d’Yeu, B.P. 21105
Nantes, 44311
Francepierre.petitgas@ifremer.fr
Cyril Piou
UMR ECOBIOPINRA - Pôle d’Hydrobiologie deSaint Pée sur Nivelle, Q
Saint Pee sur Nivelle, 64310
Francecyril.piou@yahoo.fr
Gabriel Reygondeau
Institut de Recherche pour leDéveloppement
CRH- Ave. Jean Monnet, B.P. 171
Sète, 34203
Francegabriel.reygondeau@hotmail.fr

Germany
Juergen Alheit
Biological Oceanography
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea
Research
Seestr. 15, Warnemuende, 18119
Germany
juergen.alheit@io-warnemuende.de
Milena Arias-Schreiber
Social-Ecological Systems Analysis
Leibniz Center for Tropical Marine
Ecology
Fahrenheitstrasse 6
Bremen, Bremen D-28359
Germany
milena@uni-bremen.de254

Wolfgang Fennel
IOW
Seestr. 15, Rostock, 18119
Germany
wolfgang.fennel@io-warnemuende.deMarc Hufnagl
Institute of Hydrobiology and
Fisheries Science
University of Hamburg
Olbersweg 24
Hamburg 22767
Germany
marc.hufnagl@uni-hamburg.de
Ruben J. Lara
Wetland Biogeochemistry
Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine
Ecology
Fahrenheitstrasse 6
Bremen, D-28359
Germany
ruben.lara@zmt-bremen.de
Juan Carlos Molinero
Marine Ecology/Experimental
Ecology
IFM-GEOMAR
Düsternbrooker Weg 20
Kiel, 24105
Germany
jmolinero@ifm-geomar.de
Eva Papaioannou
Department of Geography
Christian Albrechts University of Kiel
Ludewig-Meyn Str. 14
Kiel, 24098
Germany
papaioannou@geographie.uni-kiel.de
Myron A. PeckCenter for Marine and Climate
Research
University of Hamburg
Olbersweg 24
Hamburg, 22767
Germany
myron.peck@uni-hamburg.de

Hans O. Pörtner
Integrative Ecophysiology
Alfred-Wegener-Institute
Am Handelshafen 12
Bremerhaven, 27570
Germany
hans.poertner@awi.de
Jörn O. Schmidt
Sustainable Fishery - Economics Dept.
University of Kiel
Wilhelm-Seelig-Platz 1
Kiel, 24118
Germanyjschmidt@economics.uni-kiel.de
Rüdiger Voss
Sustainable Fishery - Economics Dept.
University of Kiel
Wilhelm-Seelig Platz 1
Kiel, 24118
Germany
voss@economics.uni-kiel.de

Ghana
Lailah G. Lartey-Antwi
Marine Science Research
Smart Youth Volunteers Foundation
P.O. Box OS 2337, OSU
Accra, 00233
Ghanalailah.lailah@gmail.com

GreeceChristos D. Maravelias
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research
46.7 km Athens-Sounio Ave.
Athens, Anavyssos 19013
Greececmaravel@ath.hcmr.gr
Dimitrios Politikos
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research
Milou 9Athens, 15127
Greecedimpolit@ath.hcmr.gr

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
George Triantafyllou
Institute of Oceanography
Hellenic Centre for Marine Research
46.7 km Athens-Sounio Ane.
Mavro Lithari
P.O. Box 712
Anavissos, Attica 19013
Greecegt@ath.hcmr.gr

Indonesia

Ireland

Suzy Anna
Faculty of Fisheries and Marine
Science
Padjadjaran University
Jl. Raya Jatinangor Km 21
Bandung, West Java 40600
Indonesia
suzyanna18@gmail.com

Kathryn M. Hughes
Marine Environment
Martin Ryan InstituteNational University of Ireland, Galway
203 MRI Annexe
County Galway
Irelandk.hughes4@nuigalway.ie

India

Sekharapilla Premjith
Department of Zoology
St. Judes College, M.S. University
Lekshmivilas, TC 10/1148
Vattiyoorkavu, Trivandrum
Thiruvananthapuram
Kerala 695013
India
drpremjith@rediffmail.com

Akhmad Fauzi
Department of Resource andEnvironmental Economics
Bogor Agricultural University (IPB)
Jl. Kamper Wing 5 Level 5
Kampus IPB Darmaga
Bogor, West Java 16680
Indonesia
fauziakhmad@gmail.com

Sajeev RaveendranDepartment of Physical Oceanography
Cochin University of Science andTechnology
School of Marine Sciences
Foreshore Rd., Fine Arts Ave.
Cochin, Kerala 91-682 016
India
rsajeev@yahoo.com
Rosamma Stephen
Biological Oceanography
National Institute of Oceanography
Ajantha, 43/1459
Kaloor- Kadavanthra Road,
Kochi, Kerala 682017
India
rosamma.stephen@gmail.com

Aida Sartimbul
Fisheries and Marine Science
Resources Utility, Faculty ofFisheries and Marine Sciences
University of Brawijaya
Jalan Veteran
Malang, East Java 65145
Indonesia
aida@brawijaya.ac.id
Anthony Darmawan Mulya Siahaan
Legal Bureau
Ministry of Marine Affairs andFisheries of the Rpublic ofIndonesia
Jalan Medan Merdeka Timur
Nomor. 16
Jakarta, DKI Jakarta 10110
Indonesia
anthony-dms@hotmail.com

Italy
Tarub Bahri
FIRF-F615, FAO
Via delle Terme di CaracallaRome, 00153
Italy
Tarub.Bahri@fao.org

Registrants

Sunil D. Ahirrao
Department of Fisheries
Shri Shivaji College Parbhani
Basmath Rd.
Parbhani, Maharashtra 91 431401
India
ahirrao.sunil@gmail.com

Riyanto Basuki
Conservation and Marine National Park
Ministry of Marine Affairs andFisheries
Merdeka Timur No.16, 10th Floor
Mina Bahari III Bldg.
Jakarta, DKI 10110
Indonesia
riyanbas@yahoo.com

Kevern Cochrane
FAO FIRD
Via delle Terme di CaracallaRome, 00100
Italy
Kevern.Cochrane@fao.org
Cassandra De Young
Department of Fisheries andAquaculture
UN FAO
Rm. F-421
Viale delle Terme di CaracallaRome, 00153
Italy
cassandra.deyoung@fao.org
Chiara Papetti
Department of Biology
University of Padova
Via U. Bassi 58/b
Padova, Padova 35121
Italy
chiara.papetti@unipd.it

255

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Marti Pujolar
Department of Biology
University of Padova
Via G. Colombo 3
Padova, 35131
Italymartipujolar@gmail.com

Japan
Hasan M. AbdullahRiver Basin Research Center
Gifu University
1-1 Yanagido
Gifu, 501-1112
Japan
hasan@green.gifu-u.ac.jp
Daisuke Ambe
National Research Institute ofFisheries Science, FRA
2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-8648
Japan
ambe@affrc.go.jp
Hernando Pactao Bacosa
Graduate School of Environmental
Studies
Tohoku University
Aoba 6-6-20 Aramaki, Aoba-ku,
Sendai, Miyagi 980-8579
Japanbacosa@er.kankyo.tohoku.ac.jp
Awantha Dissanayake
Institute for East China Sea Research
Nagasaki University
1551-7 Taira-machi
Nagasaki, Nagasaki 851-2213
Japan
awantha@nagasaki-u.ac.jp

Rizalita R. Edpalina
Operating Unit Ishikawa
Kanazawa (OUIK)United Nations University-Instituteof Advanced Studies
Ishikawa-ken, Hirosaka-chosha,
2/F 2-1-1, Hirosaka, Kan
Kanazawa, Ishikawa 920-0962
Japanepinephilus@yahoo.com
Yoshinari Endo
Graduate School of Agricultural
ScienceTohoku University
1-1 Tsutsumi-dori
Amamiya-machi, Aoba-ku
Sendai, Miyagi 981-8555
Japan
yendo@bios.tohoku.ac.jp
Masaaki Fukuwaka
Hokkaido National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
116 Katsurakoi
Kushiro, Hokkaido 085-0802
Japan
fukuwaka@fra.affrc.go.jp
Ian Gleadall
Faculty of Agriculture
Tohoku University
1-1 Amamiya, Aoba-ku
Sendai, 981-8555
Japanoctopus@bios.tohoku.ac.jp
Tomoaki Goto
Iwate Fisheries Technology Center
3-75-3 Heita
Kamaishi, Iwate 026-0001
Japan
t-gotou@pref.iwate.jp
Taketo Hashioka
Environmental Biogeochemical
Cycle Research Program
Research Institute for Global
Change, JAMSTEC
3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001
Japanhashioka@jamstec.go.jp

256

Kazuhiko Hiramatsu
Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku
Tokyo, 164-8639
Japankhiramatsu@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Takafumi Hirata
Graduate School of Environmental
Science
Hokkaido University
N10W5 Kita-ku
Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810
Japantahi@ees.hokudai.ac.jp
Felipe Hurtado Ferro
Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku
Tokyo, 164-8639
Japan
felipehurtado@nenv.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Yukimasa Ishida
Tohoku National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
3-27-5 Shinhama-cho
Shiogama, Miyagi 985-0001
Japan
ishiday@fra.affrc.go.jp
Atsushi Ishimatsu
Institute for East China Sea Research
Nagasaki University
1551-7 Taira-machi
Nagasaki, 851-2213
Japan
a-ishima@nagasaki-u.ac.jp
Gakushi Ishimura
Center for Sustainablity Science
Hokkaido University
Kita 9 Nishi 8 Kita-ku
Sapporo, Hokkaido 0600809
Japan
gakugaku@sgp.hokudai.ac.jp

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Shin-ichi Ito
Tohoku National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
3-27-5 Shinhama-cho
Shiogama, Miyagi 985-0001
Japan
goito@affrc.go.jp
Sachihiko ItohFisheries Environmental
Oceanography Division
Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku
Tokyo, 164-8639
Japan
itohsach@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Masahide Kaeriyama
Graduate School of Fishereis
Sciences
Hokkaido University
3-1-1 Minato-cho
Hakodate, Hokkaido 041-8611
Japansalmon@fish.hokudai.ac.jp
Manami Kanno
Field Science Center
Tohoku University
Mukai 15, Konorihama, Onagawa
Oshika, Miyagi 9862242
Japanmanami-k@bios.tohoku.ac.jp
Yuu Katsukawa
Ocean Research Institute1-15-1 Minamidai
Nakano-ku, 164-8639
Japan
y.katukawa@gmail.com

Tsuyoshi Kawasaki
Earth Environmental Science
1-10-6 Kugenuma-Fujigaya
Fujisawa, Kanagawa 251-0031
Japanaceg-1937-xz@cfnet.ne.jp
Kuroda Kazunori
3-6-1-1009 Akitsu
Narashino
Chiba Prefecture 275-0025
Japan
kuroda121625@ivy.ocn.ne.jp
Hideaki Kidokoro
Japan Sea National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
1-5939-22 Suido-cho
Niigata, Niigata 951-8121
Japan
kidokoro@fra.affrc.go.jp
Michio J. Kishi
Graduate School of Environmental
Science
Hokkaido University
N10W5 Kita-ku
Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810
Japan
mjkishi@nifty.com
Jun Kita
Demonstration Laboratory
Marine Ecology Research Institute4-7-17 Arahama
Kashiwazaki, Niigata 945-0017
Japan
kita@kaiseiken.or.jp

Toru Kobari
Faculty of Fisheries
Kagoshima University
4-50-20 Shimoarata
Kagoshima, Kagoshima 890-0056
Japankobari@fish.kagoshima-u.ac.jp
Kosei Komatsu
Graduate School of Frontier
Sciences
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku
Tokyo, 164-8639
Japankosei@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Teruhisa Komatsu
Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1, Minamidai
Nakanoku, Tokyo 164-8639
Japan
cymodocea@gmail.com

Registrants

Yasuo ItohCentral Laboratory
Marine Ecology Research Institute
300 Iwawada
Onjuku-machi, Chiba 299-5105
Japan
itoh@kaiseiken.or.jp

Michio Kawamiya
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology
Frontier Research Center for
Global Change, JAMSTEC
3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, 236-0001
Japan
kawamiya@jamstec.go.jp

Teruhisa Komatsu
Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1 Minamidai
Nakano-ku, Tokyo 164-8639
Japan
komatsu@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Haruko Kurihara
Transdisciplinary Research
Organization for SubtropicalIsland Studies
University of the Ryukyus
1 Senbaru, Nishihara
Okinawa, 903-0213
Japanharukoku@e-mail.jp
Yutaka Kurita
Tohoku National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
3-27-5 Shinhama-cho
Shiogama, Miyagi 985-0001
Japan
kurita@affrc.go.jp257

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Mikiko Kuriyama
National Research Institue of
Fisheries Science, FRA
2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-8648
Japan
mikiko@affrc.go.jp
Hiroshi Kuroda
Marine Environmental Data
Integrated Analysis Center
National Research Institute ofFisheries Science, FRA
2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-8648
Japan
kurocan@affrc.go.jp
Masao Kurogi
Research Institute for Global Change
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology, JAMSTEC
3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, 236-0001
Japan
m_kurogi@jamstec.go.jp
Kedarnath Mahapatra
Earth Weather Inc. / Institute of Oceanic
Research and Development
Tokai University
3-20-1 Orido, Shimizu-ku
Shizuoka, Shizuoka Prefecture
424-8610
Japan
kedar@scc.u-tokai.ac.jp
Masao Miura
Marine Environment
Marine Ecology Research Institute
300 Iwawada
Onjuku-machi, Chiba 299-5105
Japan
m-miura@kaiseiken.or.jp
Yasuyuki Miyakoshi
Hokkaido Fish Hatchery
373 Kitakashiwagi 3
Eniwa, Hokkaido 061-1433
Japan
miyakoshiy@fishexp.pref.hokkaido.jp

258

Yasumasa Miyazawa
Research Institute for Global Change
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth
Science and Technology, JAMSTEC
3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001
Japanmiyazawa@jamstec.go.jp

Masakatsu Ohyama
NOWPAP RCU
UNEP
5-5 Ushijima Shin-machi
Toyama 930-0856
Japanmasakatsu.ohyama@nowpap.org

Masako Nakamura
Sesoko Station
Tropical Biosphere Research Center
University of the Ryukyus
3422 Sesoko
Motobu, 905-0227
Japan
m_coral29@yahoo.co.jp

Yuji Okazaki
Mixed Water Region Fisheries
Oceanography Division
Tohoku National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
3-27-5 Shinhama-cho
Shiogama, Miyagi 985-0001
Japanokazakiy@affrc.go.jp

Gregory N Nishihara
Institute for East China Sea Research
Nagasaki University
1551-7 Taira-machi
Nagasaki, Nagasaki 851-2213
Japan
greg@nagasaki-u.ac.jp

Takeshi Okunishi
National Research Institute ofFisheries Science, FRA
2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-8648
Japanokunishi@affrc.go.jp

Haruka Nishikawa
Living Marine Resources
Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku
Tokyo, 164-8639
Japan
harukan@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Tsuneo Ono
Subarctic Fisheries Oceanography
Division
Hokkaido National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
116 Katsurakoi
Kushiro, Hokkaido 085-0802
Japan
tono@fra.affrc.go.jp

Yukihiro Nojiri
Center for Global Environmental
Research
National Institute forEnvironmental Studies (NIES)
16-2 Onogawa
Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506
Japannojiri@nies.go.jp
Masami Nonaka
Climate Variation Predictability andApplicability Research Program
Research Institute for Global
Change, JAMSTEC
3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001
Japan
nona@jamstec.go.jp

Pedcris M. Orencio
Division of Environmental Science
Development
Graduate School of Environmental
Science
N10W5 Kita-ku
Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810
Japan
pedorencio@ees.hokudai.ac.jp
I Nyoman Radiarta
Faculty of Fisheries Sciences
Hokkaido University
3-1-1 Minato-cho
Hakodate, Hokkaido 041-8611
Japanradiarta@salmon.fish.hokudai.ac.jp

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Hiroaki Saito
Biological Oceanography Section
Tohoku National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
3-27-5 Shinhama-cho
Shiogama, Miyagi 985-0001
Japan
hsaito@affrc.go.jp

Ikutaro Shimizu
Fisheries Economy Division
National Research Institute ofFisheries Science, FRA
2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-8648
Japan
ikutaro@affrc.go.jp

Hiroshi Sumata
Graduate School of Environmental
Science
Hokkaido University
N10W5 Kita-ku
Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810
Japan
su@ees.hokudai.ac.jp

Sei-ichi Saitoh
Graduate School of Fisheries
Sciences
Hokkaido University
3-1-1 Minato-cho
Hakodate, Hokkaido 041-8611
Japan
ssaitoh@salmon.fish.hokudai.ac.jp

Jun Shoji
Takehara Fisheries Research Lab.
Hiroshima University
5-8-1 Minato-machi
Takehara, Hiroshima 725-0024
Japanjshoji@hiroshima-u.ac.jp

Ryota Suwa
Seto Marine Biological Laboratory
Field Science Education andResearch Center
459 Nishimuro, Shirahama,
Wakayama 649-2211
Japanryota@zenno.jp

Yasunori Sakurai
Graduate School of Fisheries
Sciences
Hokkaido University
3-1-1 Minato-cho
Hakodate, Hokkaido 041-8611
Japansakurai@fish.hokudai.ac.jp
Kazumi Sakuramoto
Department of Ocean Sciences
Tokyo University of Marine
Science and Technology
4-5-7 Konan
Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8477
Japan
sakurak@kaiyodai.ac.jp
Hyunju Seo
Marine Bioresource andEnvironmental Science Division
Hokkaido University
3-1-1 Minato-cho
Hakodate, Hokkaido 041-8611
Japanuagiri@hanmail.net

Koji Sugie
Central Research Institute ofElectric Power Industry
1646 Abiko
Abiko, Chiba 270-1194
Japan
sugie@criepi.denken.or.jp
Takashige Sugimoto
School of Marine Science andTechnology
Tokai University
3-20-1 Orido, Shimizu-ku
Shizuoka, Shizuoka Prefecture
424-8610Japan
sugimoto@scc.u-tokai.ac.jp
Hiroya Sugisaki
National Research Institute ofFisheries Science, FRA
2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-8648
Japansugisaki@affrc.go.jp
Mika Suhara
Biology of Fisheries Resources
Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1 Minamidai
Nakano-ku, Tokyo 164-8639
Japansuhara@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Naoki Suzuki
Ocean Sciences
Tokyo University of Marine
Science and Technology
4-5-7 Konan, Minato-ku
Tokyo, 108-8477
Japannaoki@kaiyodai.ac.jp

Registrants

Takashi T. Sakamoto
Global Warming Research Projectfor IPCC AR5/Research Institutefor Global Change, JAMSTEC
3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001
Japan
teng@jamstec.go.jp

Yoshimi Suzuki
Environmentral Science
Shizuoka University
836 Oya Surugaku
Shizuoka, Shizuoka Prefecture
422-8529Japan
foodwebyoshi@aol.com
Mega L. Syamsuddin
Graduate School of Fisheries
Sciences
Hokkaido University
3-1-1 Minato-cho
Hakodate, Hokkaido 041-8611
Japan
mega@salmon.fish.hokudai.ac.jp
Kazuaki Tadokoro
Stock Productivity Section
Tohoku National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
3-27-5 Shinhama-cho
Shiogama, Miyagi 985-0001
Japan
den@affrc.go.jp259

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Motomitsu Takahashi
East China Sea Fisheries Research
Division
Seikai National Fisheries ResearchInstitute, FRA
1551-8 Taira-machi
Nagasaki, Nagasaki 851-2213
Japantakahamt@fra.affrc.go.jp

Yongjun TianJapan Sea Fisheries Resources
Division
Japan Sea National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
1-5939-22 Suido-cho, Chuo-ku
Niigata, 951-8121
Japan
yjtian@fra.affrc.go.jp

Hideki Takami
Tohoku National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
3-27-5 Shinhama-cho
Shiogama, Miyagi 985-0001
Japanhtakami@affrc.go.jp

Minoru Tomiyama
1-3-2 Sannomaru
Nagoya, Aichi 470-2105
Japan
mtomi331@ybb.ne.jp

Akiko Takano
4-5-7 Konan, Minato-ku
Tokyo, 108-8477
Japan
sheepchild@gmail.com
Akinori Takasuka
Stock Assessment Division
National Research Institute ofFisheries Science, FRA
2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-8648
Japantakasuka@affrc.go.jp

Shinji Uehara
Tohoku National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
3-27-5 Shinhama-cho
Shiogama, Miyagi 985-0001
Japanueshin@affrc.go.jp
Kazuhito Watanabe
Miyagi Prefecture Fisheries
Technology Institute97-6, Sodenohama, Watanoha
Ishinomaki, Miyagi 986-2135
Japan
watanabe-ka825@pref.miyagi.jp

Hiroaki Tatebe
Research Institute for Global
Change, JAMSTEC
3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku
Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001
Japan
tatebe@jamstec.go.jp

Tatsuro Watanabe
Physical Oceanography Section
Japan Sea National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
1-5939-22 Suido-cho
Niigata, 951-8121
Japan
tatsuro@fra.affrc.go.jp

Takeshi Terui
Graduate School of Environmental
Science
Hokkaido University
N10W5 Kita-ku
Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810
Japan
tk4terui@ees.hokudai.ac.jp

Yoshiro Watanabe
Living Marine Resources
Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku
Tokyo, 164-8639
Japanywatanab@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp260

Nam-Il Won
Biology of Fisheries Resources
Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku
Tokyo, 164-8639
Japanniwon@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp
Hidemasa Yamamoto
CEARAC (Special Monitoring andCoastal Environmental Assessment
Regional Activity Centre)
NOWPAP (Northwest Pacific
Action Plan)
5-5 Ushijima Shin-machi
Toyama 930-0856
Japanh-yamamoto@npec.or.jp
Yasuhiro Yamanaka
Faculty of Environmental Earth
Science
Hokkaido University
N10W5 Kita-ku
Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810
Japan
galapen@ees.hokudai.ac.jp
Yoh Yamashita
Field Science Education andResearch Center
Kyoto University
Fisheries Research Station,
Nagahama
Maizuru, Kyoto 625-0086
Japan
yoh@kais.kyoto-u.ac.jp
Yumiko Yara
N10W5 Kita-ku
Sapporo, 060-0810
Japanyara@ees.hokudai.ac.jp

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Ichiro Yasuda
Ocean Research Institute
The University of Tokyo
1-15-1 Minamidai, Nakano-ku
Tokyo, 164-8639
Japanichiro@ori.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Ji Hwan Sung
Department of Marine Biology
Pukyong National University
51 Yonghoro, Nam-gu
Busan, 608-737
R Korea
nise9@hanmail.net

Akihiko Yatsu
Seikai National Fisheries ResearchInstitute, FRA
1551-8 Taira-machi
Nagasaki, 851-2213
Japanyatsua@fra.affrc.go.jp

Bonggil Hyun
Department of Southern Coastal
Environmental Research
Korea Ocean R&D Institute(KORDI)
391 Jangmok-ri Jangmok-myon
Geoje, Kyungsangnam 656-830
R Koreabghyun@kordi.re.kr

Hiroshi Yoshinari
Physical Oceanography Section
Subarctic Fisheries Oceanography
Division
Hokkaido National Fisheries
Research Institute, FRA
116 Katsurakoi
Kushiro, Hokkaido 085-0802
Japan
hyy@affrc.go.jp

Korea, Republic
Dong-Suck Chang
The Natural Sciences
The National Academy of Sciences
R Korea375-13 Mang-ri, Wonsam-myeon
Yongin, Gyeonggi-do 449-871
R Koreadschang40@hanmail.net

Chan Joo Jang
Climate Change and Coastal
Disater Research Department
Korea Ocean R&D Institute(KORDI)
1270 Sa-dongAnsan, Gyeonggi-do 426-170
R Koreacjjang@kordi.re.kr
Moon Kyung Jeong
Department of Marine Biology
Pukyong National University
51 Yonghoro, Nam-gu
Busan, 806-737
R Koreavere117@hotmail.com
Sukgeun Jung
Fisheries Resources Research
Division
National Fisheries R&D Institute(NFRDI)408-1 Shirang-ri, Kijang-up,
Kijang-gun
Busan, 619-705
R Koreasukgeun.jung@gmail.com

Bo Kwang Kim
Department of Marine Biology
Pukyong National University591-1 Daeyeon 3-dong, Nam-gu
Busan, 608-737
R Korea
coke0727@naver.com
Eunhye Kim
Environmental Marine Sciences
Hanyang University
1271 Sa-3-dong Sangrok-gu
Ansan, Gyeonggi-do 426-791
R Koreaehkim@hanyang.ac.kr
Jin Koo Kim
Department of Marine Biology
Pukyong National University599-1 Daeyeon 3-dong, Nam-gu
Busan, 608-737
R Koreataengko@hanmail.net
Jung Jin Kim
Department of Marine Biology
Pukyong National University
51 Yonghoro, Nam-gu
Busan, 608737
R Korea
theocean81@hotmail.com
Suam Kim
Department of Marine Biology
Pukyong National University599-1 Daeyeon 3-dong, Nam-gu
Busan, 608-737
R Koreasuamkim@pknu.ac.kr

261

Registrants

Naoki Yoshie
Center for Marine Environmental
Studies
Ehime University
2-5 Bunkyo-cho
Matsuyama, 790-8577
Japannyoshie@sci.ehime-u.ac.jp

Sukyung Kang
Fisheries Resources Research
Division
National Fisheries R&D Institute(NFRDI)
151-1 Haean-ro, Gijang-up,
Gijang-gun
Busan, 619-705
R Koreakangsk@nfrdi.go.kr

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Jae-Bong Lee
Fisheries Resources Research
Division
National Fisheries R&D Institute(NFRDI)408-1 Shirang-ri, Kijang-up,
Kijang-gun
Busan, 619-705
R Korealeejb@nfrdi.go.kr
Jong Hee Lee
Marine Production Management
Pukyong National University599-1 Daeyeon 3-dong, Nam-gu
Busan, 608-737
R Koreafrancis@pknu.ac.kr
Won Jai Maeng
The Natural Sciences
The National Academy of Sciences
Republic of Korea
12-1502 Sampoong Apt.
Seocho 4-dong Seocho-gu
Seoul, 137-779
R Koreamaengwj@gmail.com
Jong-Hun Na
Marine Production Management
Pukyong National University599-1 Daeyeon 3-dong, Nam-gu
Busan, 608-737
R Koreajhna@pknu.ac.kr
Hye Min Park
Department of Marine Biology
Pukyong National University599-1 Daeyeon 3-dong, Nam-gu
Pusan, 608-737
R Koreashrimppark@gmail.com
Kwang-Seok Park
Department of Environment Research
Research Institute of Industrial
Science and Technology
32 San, Hyoja-dong, Nam-gu
Pohang, Gyeongbuk 790-330
R Koreakspark@rist.re.kr

262

Jung Hwa Ryu
RJH Marine Research Institute444-10 Gaya 3-dong
Busan, 614-803
R Koreaokdom-ryu@hanmail.net
Umme Salma
Department of Marine Biology
Pukyong National University599-1 Daeyeon 3-dong, Nam-gu
Busan, 608-737
R Koreaummesalma.bau@gmail.com
Sinjae Yoo
Marine Living Resources Division
Korea Ocean R&D Institute(KORDI)
1270 Sa-dongAnsan, Gyeonggi-do 426-170
R Koreasjyoo@kordi.re.kr
Jin-Hee Yoon
Department of Climate Change andCoastal Disaster Research
Korea Ocean R&D Institute(KORDI)
P.O. Box 29
Gyunggi-do, 425-600
R Koreajiny.yoon@gmail.com
Chang-Ik Zhang
Marine Production Management
Pukyong National University599-1 Daeyeon 3-dong, Nam-gu
Busan, 608-737
R Koreacizhang@pknu.ac.kr

Malawi
Friday Jack Njaya
Fisheries Policy and Planning
Malawi Fisheries Department
Ring Rd., Capital Hill
P.O. Box 593, Lilongwe, Malawi
Lilongwe, Central 593
Malawifnjaya@gmail.com

Malaysia
Edward Hugh Allison
Policy, Economics and Social
Science
The WorldFish Center
Jalan Batu Maung
Bayan Lepas, Penang 11960
Malaysiae.allison@cgiar.org
Marie-Caroline Badjeck
The WorldFish Center
Jalan Batu Maung
P.O. Box 500
Penang, GPO 10670
Malaysia
m.badjeck@cgiar.org
Mohamed Rawidean Kassim
MIMOS
Technology Park Malaysia
Bukit Jalil
Kuala Lumpur, 57000
Malaysia
dean@mimos.my

MéxicoGastón Antonio Bazzino Ferreri
Programa de Ecología Pesquera
CIBNOR S.C.
Mar Bermejo No.195, Colonia
Playa Palo de Santa Rita
La Paz, Baja California Sur 23090
Méxicogbazzino04@cibnor.mx
Salvador Emilio Lluch-Cota
Fisheries Ecology
Centro de Investigaciones Biologicasdel Noroeste (CIBNOR)Mar Bermejo No. 195, Col. Playa
Palo de Sta. Rita
La Paz, Baja California Sur 23000
Méxicoslluch@cibnor.mx

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Rubén Rodríguez-Sánchez
Pesquerias y Biologia Marina
Centro Interdisciplinario deCiencias Marinas (CICIMAR)
Av. IPN s/n, Col. Palo de Sta. Rita,
AP 592
La Paz, Baja California Sur 23090
Méxicorrodrig@ipn.mx

New Caledonia

Timothy D. Pickering
Coastal Fisheries Programme
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
B.P. D5, Ave. Roger Laroque
Noumea, 98848
New Caledonia
timp@spc.int

New Zealand
Rosemary J. Hurst
National Institute of Water andAtmospheric Research Ltd.
301 Evans Bay Parade, Greta Point
Wellington, 6021
New Zealandr.hurst@niwa.co.nz

Nigeria
Julius Ibukun Agboola
Department of Fisheries
Lagos State University
Along Badagry Express-Way, Ojo,
P.O. Box 10409, Ikeja
Lagos, Lagos 2341
Nigeria
jb_agboola@yahoo.com

NorwayMei-Yu Chang
Department of Biology
UiB, Thormøhlensgate 53a (2 floor)
Bergen, 5020
Norwaymeiyuchang0402@gmail.com
Kenneth Drinkwater
Institute of Marine Research
P.O. Box 1870, Nordnes, 33
Nordnesgaten
Bergen, N-5817
Norwayken.drinkwater@imr.no
Audrey J. Geffen (Cancelled)
Department of Biology
University of Bergen
P.O. Box 7803
Bergen, 5020
Norwayaudrey.geffen@bio.uib.no
Manuel Hidalgo
Department of Biology
University of Oslo
P.O.Box 1066, Blindern
Centre for Ecological and
Evolutionary Synthesis
Oslo N-0316
Norwaymanuel.hidalgo@bio.uio.noSolfrid S. Hjøllo
Oceanography
Institute of Marine Research
Nordnesgaten 33
Bergen, 5817
NorwaySolfrid.Hjollo@imr.no

Olav Sigurd Kjesbu
Reproduction and GrowthInstitute of Marine Research
P.O. Box 1870, Nordnes, 50
Nordnesgaten
Bergen, 5817
Norwayolav.kjesbu@imr.no
Cecilie Kvamme
Pelagic Fish
Institute of Marine Research
P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes
Bergen, N-5817
Norwaycecilie@imr.no
Harald Loeng
Institute of Marine Research
P.O. Box 1870 Nordnes
Bergen, 5817
Norwayharald.loeng@imr.no

Registrants

Johann Bell
Strategic Engagement, Policy andPlanning Facility
Secretariat of the Pacific Community
B.P. D5
Noumea Cedex, 98848
New Caledonia
johannb@spc.int

Siyanbola A. Omitoyin
Animal Science and Fisheries
Management
Bowen University
8/9 Oluponna Road, PMB 284
Iwo, Osun State +234
Nigeriasbomitoyin@yahoo.com

Benjamin PlanqueInstitute of Marine Research
Postboks 6404
Tromsø, 9294
Norwaybenjamin.planque@imr.no
Svein Sundby
Institute of Marine Research
Nordnesgaten 33
Bergen, N-5817
Norwaysvein.sundby@imr.no

Peru
Luis Herrera Escudero
Remote Sensing and GIS
Instituto del Mar del Peru
ESQ. Gamarra y Valle s/n, Chucuito
Lima, Callao 22
Peru
lescudero@imarpe.gob.pe

263

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Miguel Angel Niquen
Pelagic Resource Area
Instituto del Mar del Perú (IMARPE)
Esquina Gamarra y General Valle s/n
Chucuito, Callao 22
Peru
mniquen@imarpe.gob.pe

Jose Manuel Pereira da Silva(Cancelled)
Ciencias Quimicas
Colegio Internato dos Carvalhos
Rua do Padrao, 83
Vila Nova de Gaia
Porto 4415-284 Pedroso
Portugalzemanel@cic.pt

Philippines
Maria Rebecca Alviar Campos
Southeast Asian Regional Center for
Graduate Studies and Research inAgriculture
10996 Campos Compound
Faculty Village, College
Laguna 4031
Philippines
cmaribec@yahoo.com
Asuncion Bina De Guzman
Institute of Fisheries Research andDevelopment
Mindanao State University at Naawan
Poblacion, Naawan, Misamis
Oriental 9023
Philippines
sony_deguzman@yahoo.com
Michael Dano Pido
Center for Strategic Policy andGovernance
Palawan State University
G/F Medical Bldg., Tiniguiban Heights
Puerto Princesa City
Palawan 5300
Philippines
mdpido@yahoo.com

Portugal
Ana Maria MoreiraUREMS
INRB-IPIMAR
Av de Brasilia
Lisboa, 1449-006
Portugalmoreiratrue@gmail.com

264

RussiaNadezhda L. Aseeva
Far-Eastern Seas Fisheries Resources
Pacific Research Institute ofFisheries and Oceanography(TINRO-Center)
4 Shevchenko Alley
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray 690950
Russiaaseeva_n@hotmail.com
Dmitry Galanin
Sakhalin Research Institute ofFisheries and Oceanography(SakhNIRO)
196 Komsomolskaya St.
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, 693023
Russiadmitry.galanin@yahoo.com
Maxim Ishchenko
V.I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological
Institute (POI), FEB RAS
43 Baltiyskaya St.
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray 690041
Russiamaksim@poi.dvo.ru
Dmitry D. Kaplunenko
Department of Satellite Oceanology
V.I. Il’ichev Pacific Oceanological
Institute (POI), FEB RAS
43 Baltiyskaya St.
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray 690041
Russiadimkap@poi.dvo.ru

Talgat R. Kilmatov
Pacific State University of
Economics
19 Okeansky Pr.
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray 690950
Russiatalgat_k@mail.ru
Aleksey V. Koldunov
Laboratory of Regional
Oceanography
St. Petersburg State University
10 Line of Vasilievsky Island 33-35
St. Petersburg, 199178
Russiakoldunovaleksey@gmail.com
Andrei S. Krovnin (Cancelled)
Laboratory of Climatic Bases ofBioproductivity
Russian Federal Research Instituteof Fisheries and Oceanography(VNIRO)
17 V. Krasnoselskaya St.
Moscow, 107140
Russiaakrovnin@vniro.ru
Tatyana N. Krupnova
Pacific Research Institute ofFisheries and Oceanography(TINRO-Centre)
4 Shevchenko Alley
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray 690950
Russiakrupnova@tinro.ru
Svetlana A. Murzina
Environmental Biochemistry
Institute of Biology
Karelian Research Centre Russian
Academy of Science
11 Pushkinskaya St.
Petrozavodsk, 185910
Russiaimagination@onego.ru

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Boris Prischepa
Knipovitch Polar Research Institute ofMarine Fisheries and Oceanography
6 Knipovich St.
Murmansk, 183763
Russiainter@pinro.ru
Sergey Prusov
Freshwater Resources Laboratory
Knipovitch Polar Research Institute ofMarine Fisheries and Oceanography
6 Knipovich St.
Murmansk, 183763
Russiaprusov@pinro.ru

Elena I. Ustinova
Laboratory of Fisheries Oceanography
Pacific Research Institute ofFisheries and Oceanography(TINRO-Center)
4 Shevchenko Alley
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray 690950
Russiaeustinova@mail.ru
Alexey V. Vakatov
Laboratory of Commercial Marine Fish
Magadan Reseach Institute ofFishery and Oceanography
36/10 Portovaya
Magadan, 685000
Russiaalexvakatov@mail.ru

Yury I. Zuenko
Japan Sea and North-West Pacific
Oceanography
Pacific Research Institute ofFisheries and Oceanography(TINRO-Center)
4 Shevchenko Alley
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray 690950
Russiazuenko_yury@hotmail.com

South Africa
Janet Clare Coetzee
Department of Environmental Affairs
Marine and Coastal Management
Foretrust House
Martin Hammerschlag Rd.
Cape Town, 8102
South Africa
jcoetzee@deat.gov.za
Warwick Sauer
Department of Ichthyology and
Fisheries Science
Rhodes University
P.O. Box 94
Grahamstown, 6140
South Africa
w.sauer@ru.ac.za
Nandipha Monica Twatwa
Department of Environmental Affairs
Marine and Coastal Management
Martin Hammerschlarg Way
Foretrust Building, Foreshore
Cape Town, Western Cape 7708
South Africa
Natwatwa@deat.gov.za

Kate Eleanor Watermeyer
Department of Zoology
University of Cape Town
Zoology Department
Private Bag X3
Rondebosch, 770
Cape Town, Western Cape 7701
South Africa
kwatermeyer@gmail.com
Dawit Yemane
Department of Environmental Affairs
Marine and Coastal Management
Foretrust House
Martin Hammerschlag Rd.
Cape Town, 8012
South Africa
dawityemane@gmail.com

Spain

Registrants

Konstantin A. Rogachev
Department of Ocean Physics
V.I. Il´ichev Pacific Oceanological
Institute (POI), FEB RAS
43 Baltiyskaya St.
Vladivostok, Primorsky Kray 690041
Russiarogachev@poi.dvo.ru

Anatoliy Velikanov
State Committe for Fisheries of theRussian Federation
Sakhalin Research Institute ofFisheries and Oceanography(SakhNIRO)
196 Komsomolskaya St.
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Sakhalin 693023
Russiavelikanov@sakhniro.ru

Eider Andonegi
Marine Research Division
AZTI-Tecnalia
Txatxarramendi ugartea z/g
Sukarrieta, Bizkaia 48395
Spain
eandonegi@azti.es
Miguel Bernal
C.O. de Cádiz
Instituto Español de Oceanografía
Puerto Pesquero
Muelle de Levante, s/n Cádiz
Cádiz 11006
Spain
miguel.bernal@cd.ieo.es
Sebastian Villasante
Av Burgo das Nacions s/nSantiago de Compostela
A Coruña 15782
Spain
sebastian.villasante@usc.es

265

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries

SwedenValerio Bartolino
Institute of Marine Research
Swedish Board of Fisheries
Turistgatan 5
Lysekil, 54321
Swedenvalerio.bartolino@uniroma1.it

Ralf van Hal
Department of Ecology
IMARES (Institute for Marine
Resources and Ecosystem Studies)
Haringkade 1
IJmuiden, Noord-Holland 1973 RR
The Netherlands
ralf.vanhal@wur.nl

Tunisia
Susa Niiranen
Stockholm Resilience Centre
Baltic Nest InstituteKräftriket 10
Stockholm University
Stockholm, SE-106 91
Swedensniir@mbox.su.se
Sujan Saha
Independent Researcher
c/o M. Chowdhury, Tings Vägen
21 TR 2, 145-56 Norsberg
Stockholm, 145-56
Swedensujan407@yahoo.com

ThailandSiraprapha Premcharoen
Department of Science
Kasetsart University
Faculty of Liberal Arts andScience, Kamphaeng Saen
Nakhon Pathom, 73140
Thailandfaassrp@hotmail.com

The Netherlands
Remment ter Hofstede
Department of Ecology
IMARES (Institute for Marine
Resources and Ecosystem Studies)
P.O. Box 68
IJmuiden, 1970 AB
The Netherlands
remment.terhofstede@wur.nl

266

Frida Ben Rais Lasram
Aquatic Resources and Ecosystems
National Agronomic Institute of Tunisia
43 Avenue Charles Nicolle
Tunis, 1082
Tunisia
frida.lasram@gmail.com

U.S.A.
Melanie Abecassis
Ecosystems and Oceanography
Division
JIMAR/PIFSC
2570 Dole St.
Honolulu, HI 96822
U.S.A.
melanie.abecassis@noaa.gov
Teresa A’mar
Resource Ecology and Fisheries
Management Division
NOAA Fisheries
F/AKC2, 7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115
U.S.A.
Teresa.Amar@noaa.gov
Rebecca Asch
Integrative Oceanography Division
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
9500 Gilman Dr.
Mail Code 0208
La Jolla, CA 92093-0208
U.S.A.
rgasch@ucsd.edu

Elizabeth Atwood
Quantitative Ecology and Resource
Management
University of Washington
1122 NE Boat St.
Seattle, WA 98195-5020
U.S.A.
eatwood@u.washington.edu
Nicholas A. Bond
Joint Institute for the Study ofAtmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)
University of Washington
7600 Sand Point Way NE
NOAA/PMEL
Seattle, WA 98195-4925
U.S.A.
nicholas.bond@noaa.gov
Louis W. Botsford
Wildlife, Fish and Conservation
Biology
University of California at Davis
1 Shields Ave.
Davis, CA 95616
U.S.A.
lwbotsford@ucdavis.edu
Jon Kenton Tarsus Brodziak
Fish Biology and Stock
Assessment
Pacific Islands Fisheries Science
Center, NMFS, NOAAPIFSC, 2570 Dole St.
Honolulu, HI 96822
U.S.A.
jon.brodziak@noaa.gov
David M. Checkley
Scripps Institution of
Oceanography
University of California, San Diego
9500 Gilman Dr.
La Jolla, CA 92093-0218
U.S.A.
dcheckley@ucsd.edu
Michelle Cho
Department of Conservation
New England Aquarium
Central Wharf
Boston, MA 02110
U.S.A.
mcho@neaq.org

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Enrique N. Curchitser
Institute of Marine and Coastal
Sciences
Rutgers University
71 Dudley Rd.
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
U.S.A.
enrique@marine.rutgers.edu
Michael J. Dagg
Louisiana Universities Marine
Consortium
8124 Hwy 56
Chauvin, LA 70344
U.S.A.
mdagg@lumcon.edu

Michele Longo Eder
North Pacific Reasearch Board
1007 West 3rd Ave.
Anchorage, AK 22203
U.S.A.
michele@michelelongoeder.com
Lisa B. Eisner
TSMRI/Auke Bay Laboratories
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
NMFS, NOAA
17109 Pt. Lena Loop Rd.
Juneau, AK 99801
U.S.A.
lisa.eisner@noaa.gov
Edward W. Farley
DOC
NOAA/NMFS/AFSC
17109 Pt. Lena Loop Rd.
Juneau, AK 99801
U.S.A.
ed.farley@noaa.gov

Jonathan Hare
Narragansett Laboratory
NOAA NEFSC NMFS
28 Tarzwell Dr.
Narragansett, RI 02882
U.S.A.
jon.hare@noaa.gov

Rini Ghosh (Cancelled)
International Fisheries Program
NOAA NMFS PIRO
1601 Kapiolani Blvd., Suite 1110
Honolulu, HI 96814
U.S.A.
rini.ghosh@noaa.gov

Alan C. Haynie
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
NOAA Fisheries
7600 Sand Point Way NE, Bldg. 4
Seattle, WA 98115
U.S.A.
Alan.Haynie@noaa.gov

Georgina Gibson
International Arctic Research Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
930 Koyukuk Dr.
Fairbanks, AK 99775-7340
U.S.A.
ggibson@iarc.uaf.edu

Katherine Hedström
Arctic Region Supercomputing
CenterUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks
909 Koyukuk Dr., Suite 105
Fairbanks, AK 99775
U.S.A.
kate@arsc.edu

Karen Gillis
Bering Sea Fishermen’s
Association
110 West 15th Ave., Suite A
Anchorage, AK 99501
U.S.A.
karen.gillis@bsfaak.org
Anand Gnanadesikan
Oceans and Climate Group GroupNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory
Princeton University Forrestal Campus
201 Forrestal Rd.
Princeton, NJ 08540-6649
U.S.A.
Anand.Gnanadesikan@noaa.gov
Melissa A. Haltuch
Northwest Fisheries Science Center,
NMFS, NOAA
2725 Montlake Blvd. E
Seattle, WA 98112-2097
U.S.A.
melissa.haltuch@noaa.gov

Albert J. Hermann
Joint Institute for the Study ofAtmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)
University of Washington
7600 Sand Point Way NE
NOAA/PMEL
Seattle, WA 98115
U.S.A.
Albert.J.Hermann@noaa.gov
Anne B. Hollowed
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
NMFS, NOAA
7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115-6349
U.S.A.
Anne.Hollowed@noaa.gov
Howard Horton
Fisheries and Wildlife
Oregon State University
104 Nash Hall
Corvallis, OR 97331
U.S.A.
hortonho@onid.orst.edu

267

Registrants

Gerard DiNardo
Pacific Islands Fisheries Science
Center, NMFS, NOAA
2570 Dole St.
Honolulu, HI 96822
U.S.A.
Gerard.DiNardo@noaa.gov

John Robert GauvinBest Use Cooperative
4241 21st Ave. West
Suite 302
Seattle, WA 98199
U.S.A.
gauvin@seanet.com

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Evan A. Howell
Ecosystems and Oceanography
Division
Pacific Islands Fisheries Science
Center, NMFS, NOAA
2570 Dole St.
Honolulu, HI 96822
U.S.A.
evan.howell@noaa.gov
George L. Hunt, Jr.
School of Aquatic and Fishery
Sciences
University of Washington
P.O. Box 355020
Seattle, WA 98195
U.S.A.
geohunt2@u.washington.edu
Henry P. Huntington
Arctic Program
Pew Environment Group
23834 The Clearing Dr.
Eagle River, AK 99577
U.S.A.
hhuntington@pewtrusts.org
James N. Ianelli
Resource Ecology and Fisheries
Management
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
NMFS, NOAA
7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115
U.S.A.
Jim.Ianelli@noaa.gov
Felix Jose (Cancelled)
Coastal Studies InstituteLouisiana State University
CSI, How-Russell GeoSciences
Complex
Baton Rouge, LA 70803
U.S.A.
felixjose@lsu.edu
John Tillman Lamkin
Southeast Fisheries Science Center
NOAA-Fisheries
75 Virginia Beach Dr.
Miami, FL 33149
U.S.A.
John.Lamkin@noaa.gov

268

Hui-Hua Lee
2570 Dole St.
Honolulu, HI 96822
U.S.A.
huihua.lee@noaa.gov
Paul William MacGregor
General Counsel
At-sea Processors Association
4005 20th Ave. West, Suite 115
Seattle, WA 98199
U.S.A.
pmacgregor@mundtmac.com
Bonnie J. McCay
Human Ecology
Rutgers University
55 Dudley Rd.
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
U.S.A.
mccay@aesop.rutgers.edu
Bernard A. Megrey
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
NMFS, NOAA
7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115-6349
U.S.A.
Bern.Megrey@noaa.gov
Jennifer L. Menkel
Cooperative Institute for Marine
Resources Studies, HMSC
Oregon State University
2030 SE Marine Science Dr.
Newport, OR 97365
U.S.A.
jennifer.menkel@oregonstate.edu
Cheryl A. Morgan
Cooperative Institute for Marine
Resources Studies, HMSC
Oregon State University
2030 SE Marine Science Dr.
Newport, OR 97365
U.S.A.
cheryl.morgan@oregonstate.edu

Franz J. Mueter
School of Fisheries and Ocean
Sciences, Juneau Center
University of Alaska Fairbanks
17109 Pt. Lena Loop Rd.
Juneau, AK 99801
U.S.A.
fmueter@alaska.edu
Barbara Muhling
National Marine Fisheries Service
75 Virginia Beach Dr.
Miami, FL 33149
U.S.A.
Barbara.Muhling@noaa.gov
Phillip R. Mundy
Auke Bay Laboratories/TSMRI
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
NMFS, NOAA
17109 Pt. Lena Loop Rd.
Juneau, AK 99801
U.S.A.
Phil.mundy@noaa.gov
Steven A. Murawski
Office of the Assistant Adminstrator
NOAA Fisheries Service
1315 East West Hwy, SSMC#
Room 14659
Silver Spring, MD 20910-3282
U.S.A.
Steve.Murawski@noaa.gov
Jeffrey M. Napp
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
NMFS, NOAA
7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115-6349
U.S.A.
Jeff.Napp@noaa.gov
Jennifer L. Nielsen
Department of Biology
USGS
4210 University Dr.
Anchorage, AK 99508
U.S.A.
jlnielsen@usgs.gov

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Jay Peterson
Cooperative Institute for Marine
Resources Studies, HMSC
Oregon State University
2030 SE Marine Science Dr.
Newport, OR 97365
U.S.A.
jay.peterson@oregonstate.edu

Deborah A. Reusser
USGS-Western Fisheries ResearchCenter at Marine Hatfield
Science Center
2111 SE Marine Science Dr.
Newport, OR 97365
U.S.A.
dreusser@usgs.gov

Janet A. Nye
NOAA NMFS NFSC
166 Water St.
Woods Hole, MA 02543
U.S.A.
janetnye@gmail.com

William T. Peterson
Cooperative Institute for Marine
Resources Studies, HMSC
Oregon State University
2030 SE Marine Science Dr.
Newport, OR 97365
U.S.A.
Bill.Peterson@noaa.gov

Kenneth A. Rose
Oceanography and Coastal Sciences
Louisiana State University
3125 Energy, Coast, andEnvironment Bldg.
Baton Rouge, LA 70803
U.S.A.
karose@lsu.edu

Kevin Piner
NOAA Fisheries
2570 Dole St.
Honolulu, HI 96822
U.S.A.
kevin.piner@noaa.gov

Brian J. Rothschild
School for Marine Science andTechnology
University of Massachusetts Dartmouth
706 South Rodney French Blvd.
New Bedford, MA 02744-1221
U.S.A.
brothschild@umassd.edu

Eric A. Olson
North Pacific Research Board
1016 West 6th Avenue, Suite 301
Anchorage, Alaska 99501
U.S.A.
eolson@gci.net
Ivonne Ortiz
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
NMFS, NOAA
7600 Sand Point Way NE, Bldg. 4
Seattle, WA 98115
U.S.A.
ivonne@u.washington.edu
James E. Overland
Pacific Marine Environmental
Laboratory, NOAA
7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115-6349
U.S.A.
James.E.Overland@noaa.gov
Clarence Pautzke
Executive Director
North Pacific Research Board (NPRB)
1007 W. 3rd Ave., Suite 100
Anchorage, AK 99501
U.S.A.
cpautzke@nprb.org

Jeffrey J. Polovina
Ecosystems and Oceanography
Division
Pacific Islands Fisheries Science
Center, NMFS, NOAA
2570 Dole St.
Honolulu, HI 96822
U.S.A.
Jeffrey.Polovina@noaa.gov
Samuel G. Pooley
NOAA Fisheries
Pacific Islands Fisheries Science
Center, NMFS, NOAA
2570 Dole St.
Honolulu, HI 96822-2396
U.S.A.
samuel.pooley@noaa.gov
Thomas E. Reed
School of Aquatic and Fishery
Sciences
University of Washington
Box 355020, 1122 NE Boat St.
Seatlle, WA 98105
U.S.A.
tomreed@uw.edu

Steve S. Rumrill
Department of Biology
University of Oregon
63466 Boat Basin Dr.
Charleston, OR 97420
U.S.A.
Steve.Rumrill@state.or.us
Ryan R. Rykaczewski
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory
University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research
Princeton University Forrestal
Campus, 201 Forrestal Rd.
Princeton, NJ 08540-6649
U.S.A.
ryan.rykaczewski@noaa.gov
Kehinde Salau
Applied Mathematics for the Lifeand Social Sciences
Arizona State University
2430 South Mill Ave., Apt. 108
Tempe, AZ 85282
U.S.A.
kehinde.salau@gmail.com

269

Registrants

Paul E. Niemeier
Office of International Affairs
NMFS, NOAA
1315 East-West Highway
SSMC3, Room 12752
Silver Spring, MD 20910
U.S.A.
paul.niemeier@noaa.gov

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Jameal Samhouri
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
NOAA Fisheries
2725 Montlake Blvd. E
Seattle, WA 98112
U.S.A.
jameal.samhouri@noaa.gov

Charles A. StockNOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory
Princeton University Forrestal
Campus, 201 Forrestal Rd.
Princeton, NJ 08540-6649
U.S.A.
charles.stock@noaa.gov

Michael J. Schirripa
Sustainable Fisheries Division
Southeast Fisheries ScienceCentre, NMFS, NOAA
Hatfield Marine Science Centre
75 Virginia Beach Dr.
Miami, FL 33149
U.S.A.
Michael.Schirripa@noaa.gov

Andrei V. Suntsov
Integrative Oceanography Division
Scripps Institution of Oceanography,
UCSD
9500 Gilman Dr.
La Jolla, CA 92093-0218
U.S.A.
asuntsov@mail.ru

Franklin B. Schwing
Environmental Research Division
Southwest Fisheries Science Center
NMFS, NOAA
1352 Lighthouse Ave.
Pacific Grove, CA 93950
U.S.A.
franklin.schwing@noaa.gov

Satsuki Takahashi
Department of Anthropology
Rutgers University
131 George St.,New Brunswick,
NJ 08901-1414
USAsatsuki@eden.rutgers.edu

C. Tracy Shaw
Cooperative Institute for Marine
Resources Studies, HMSC
Oregon State University
2030 SE Marine Science Dr.
Newport, OR 97365
U.S.A.
tracy.shaw@noaa.gov

Erica McCall Valentine
Community Ecosystem Services
Ecotrust
P.O. Box 868
Talkeetna, AK 99676
U.S.A.
evalentine@ecotrust.org

Michael Simpkins (Cancelled)
Office of International Affairs
NOAA Fisheries Service
1315 East-West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
U.S.A.
Michael.Simpkins@noaa.gov
John E. Stein
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
NMFS, NOAA
2725 Montlake Blvd. E
Seattle, WA 98112-2097
U.S.A.
John.E.Stein@noaa.gov

270

Juan L. Valero
International Pacific Halibut
Commission
P.O. Box 95009
Seattle, WA 98145-2009
U.S.A.
juan@iphc.washington.edu
Thomas Van Pelt
North Pacific Research Board
1007 West Third Ave., Suite 100
Anchorage, AK 99501
U.S.A.
tvanpelt@nprb.org

Alyson Marie Venti
Marine and Atmospheric
Chemistry
University of Miami
Rosenstiel School of Marine andAtmospheric Science
4600 Rickenbacker Cswy
Miami, FL 33149
U.S.A.
aventi@rsmas.miami.edu
Lyn Mie Wagatsuma
Research Corporation of the
University of Hawaii
Joint Institute for Marine andAtmospheric Research2570 Dole St.
Honolulu, HI 96822
U.S.A.
Lyn.Wagatsuma@noaa.gov
Thomas C. WainwrightNorthwest Fisheries Science Center
NOAA Fisheries
2032 SE OSU Dr.
Newport, OR 97365-5296
U.S.A.
thomas.wainwright@noaa.gov
Muyin Wang
Joint Institute for the Study ofAtmosphere and Ocean (JISAO)
University of Washington
7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 98115
U.S.A.
muyin.wang@noaa.gov
Lawrence Wasserman
Department of Planning
Swinomish Indian Tribal Community
11430 Moorage Way
LaConner, WA 98257
U.S.A.
lwasserman@skagitcoop.org
Francisco E. WernerInstitute of Marine and Coastal
Sciences
Rutgers University
71 Dudley Rd.
New Brunswick, NJ 08901
U.S.A.
cisco@marine.rutgers.edu

Climate Change Effects on Fish and Fisheries
Francis Karl Wiese
North Pacific Research Board (NPRB)
1007 West 3rd Ave., Suite 100
Anchorage, AK 99501
U.S.A.
francis.wiese@nprb.org
Matthew T. Wilson
Alaska Fisheries Science Center,
NMFS, NOAA
7600 Sand Point Way NE
Seattle, WA 99115-6349
U.S.A.
matt.wilson@noaa.gov

UkraineUnited Kingdom
Julian Icarus Allen
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Prospect Place
Plymouth, PL1 3DH
United Kingdom
jia@pml.ac.uk
Alexander Arkhipkin
Fisheries Department
Falkland Islands Government
FIPASS
Stanley, FIQQ 1ZZ
United Kingdom
aarkhipkin@fisheries.gov.fk
Manuel Barange
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Prospect Place
Plymouth, Devon PL1 3DH
United Kingdom
m.barange@pml.ac.uk

William L. Cheung
School of Environmental Sciences
University of East Anglia
Norwich, Norfolk NR4 7TJ
United Kingdom
william.cheung@uea.ac.uk
Rob Holmes
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Prospect Place
Plymouth, Devon PL1 3DH
United Kingdom
robe1@pml.ac.uk
Jason Holt
Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory
6 Brownlow St., Joseph Proudman Bldg.
Liverpool, L3 5DA
United Kingdom
jholt@pol.ac.uk
Gorka Merino
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Prospect Place, The Hoe
Plymouth, Devon PL1 3DH
United Kingdom
gmerin@pml.ac.uk
Graham M. Pilling
Centre for Environment, Fisheries& Aquaculture Science (CEFAS)
Pakefield Rd.
Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT
United Kingdom
patricia.marsh@cefas.co.uk
John K. Pinnegar
Centre for Environment, Fisheries& Aquaculture Science (CEFAS)
Pakefield Rd.
Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT
United Kingdom
john.pinnegar@cefas.co.uk

Mark Prime
Centre for Environmental andMarine Sciences
University of Hull - ScarboroughCampus, Filey Rd.
Scarborough, YO11 3AZ
United Kingdom
mark.prime@gmail.com
Joe Scutt-Phillips
Centre for Environment, Fisheries& Aquaculture Science (CEFAS)
Pakefield Rd.
Lowestoft, Suffolk NR33 0HT
United Kingdom
joe.scuttphillips@cefas.co.uk
Stephen D. Simpson
School of Biological Sciences
University of Bristol
Woodland Rd.
Bristol, BS8 1UG
United Kingdom
Stephen.Simpson@bristol.ac.uk

VietnamNguyen Huu Ninh
Vietnam National University279/24 Giang Vo St.
Hanoi, 144
Vietnamnguyen.huuninh@yahoo.com
Hien Thi Than
Research and Development
Centre for Marinelife Conservation andCommunity Development (MCD)
Suite 3104, Level 31, Bldg. 34T
Hoang Dao Thuy St.,
Hanoi, 84-4, Vietnam
tthien@mcdvietnam.org
Du Van Toan
Department of Marine Resources
Management and CC
Research Institute for Managementof Sea and Islands
83 Nguyen Chi Thanh Rd.
Hanoi 84
Vietnamduvantoan@gmail.com

271

Registrants

Alexandra V. Temnykh
Department of Biophysical Ecology
Institute of Biology of theSouthern Seas
Nakhimov Ave. 2
Sevastopol, 99011
Ukraineatemnykh@rambler.ru

Julia L. Blanchard
Division of Biology
Imperial College London
Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Rd.
Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY
United Kingdom
j.blanchard@imperial.ac.uk