UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

Marjorie C. Turiano, Eric C. Cruz
Institute of Civil Engineering
University of the Philippines Diliman

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

Comparative Analysis of Parametric
Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for
Storm Surge Simulations

Tropical Cyclones
Western North Pacific Basin

Tracks of all recorded cyclones
1851-2008

Philippines

Category

Wind Speed
(kph)

(kt)

1

119-153

64-82

2

154-177

83-95

3

178-208

96-112

4

209-251

178-208

5

>252

>137

Image Credits: : https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/tropical-cyclone-tracks

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

INTRODUCTION

Storm Surges
BeforeTrack of Haiyan (2013)

After

Image Credits: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteorological_
history_of_Typhoon_Haiyan

BeforeImage Credits: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2507119/Philippines-TyphoonHaiyan-UN-aid-chief-admits-response-slow.html

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

After

Image Credits: http://pcd07.ie/student-corner/bailiuchan-ar-shoniospartaigh-tiofun-hayian/

3

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

INTRODUCTION

Storm Surges

Track ofof Meranti
Haiyan (2016)(2013)
Track

Image Credits:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Meranti_2016_track.png

BeforeAfter

Image Credits: http://www.panahon.tv/blog/2016/10/faces-of-breathtaking-batanes//2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

4

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

INTRODUCTION

Storm Surge Modeling2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

5

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

INTRODUCTION

50

1020

40

1000

MSL Pressure(hPa)

Surface Wind
(m/s)

Storm Surge Modeling
30
20
10

Water Level (m fromMSL)

0
2016/09/12 18z

2016/09/13 18z

980
960
940
920

900
2016/09/12 18z 2016/09/13 18z 2016/09/14 18z

2016/09/14 18z

1.00
0.50
0.00
-0.50
Sep-12 18z
Observed Water Level

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

Sep-13 18z
Astronomic Tide

Modeled Storm Tide
6

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

INTRODUCTION

Parametric Cyclone Models• Sea Level Pressure Field• Fujita (1952)• Schloemer (1954)• Holland (1980)• Surface Wind Field• Modified Rankine Vortex Model• Fujita (1952)• Holland (1980)• Young and Sobey (1980)• Holland et al. (2010)• Radius of Maximum Winds• Gross et al. (2004)• Vickery and Wadhera (2008)2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

7

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

INTRODUCTION

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

8

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

Methods

Typhoon Cases

TyphoonMaximum Wind (kt)

MSLP (hPa)

Meranti (2016)

120

890

Rita (1978)

120

880

Haiyan (2013)

125

895
JMA Best Track Archive2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

9

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

METHODSTyphoon Cases
StationItbayat, Batanes
Basco, Batanes
Daet, Camarines Norte
Virac, Catanduanes
Legazpi, Albay
Guiuan, Samar
Borongan, Samar
Catbalogan, Samar
Mactan, Cebu

Latitude(°N)

Longitude(°E)

Station Elevation(m above MSL)

20°48’

121°51’

124

20°26’

121°57’167

14°07’

122°57’

4

East coast of the Philippines, upwind of a
topographic feature

13°35’

124°14’40

South coast of Catanduanes island, with
topographic feature north of the station

13°08’

123°44’19

Immediately south of a prominent topographic
feature11°02’

125°44’

6.0

Eastern part of Samar island; vicinity has
relatively flat terrain

11°39’

125°26’

2.4

East coast of Samar island, upwind of a
topographic feature

11°47’

124°53’5West coast of Samar island, downwind of a
topographic feature

10°19’

123°59’2.3

Island in Central Visayas; vicinity has relatively
flat terrain2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

Location Description
Small remote island
Small remote island

10

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

METHODSTyphoon Cases

Typhoon Meranti (2016)

Basco

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

11

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

Itbayat
UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

METHODSTyphoon Cases
Typhoon Rita (1978)

Virac
Legazpi2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

12

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

Daet
UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

METHODSTyphoon Cases

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

GuiuanMactanComparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

13
2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

BoronganCatbalogan

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

METHODS

Parametric Cyclone Models• Sea Level Pressure Field• Fujita (1952)
𝑃 = 𝑃∞ −𝑃∞ − 𝑃𝑐
1 + 𝑟Τ𝑟0 2• Schloemer (1954)
𝑃 = 𝑃𝑐 + 𝑃∞ − 𝑃𝑐

𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥ൗ
−
𝑟
e

• Holland (1980)
𝑃 = 𝑃𝑐 + 𝑃∞ − 𝑃𝑐 e𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥ൗ 𝐵−𝑟2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

14

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

METHODS

Parametric Cyclone Models• Surface Wind Field• Modified Rankine Vortex Model
𝑉𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑉𝑔 =
𝑉𝑚𝑎𝑥

𝑟
𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑟

,

• Young and Sobey (1980)
𝑉𝑔

𝑓𝑜𝑟 0 ≤ 𝑟 < 𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥
−𝑋

𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥

,

=

𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟 > 𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥

4𝑃∞ − 𝑃𝑐
2
𝑉𝑔 = −𝑓𝑟 + 𝑟 𝑓 −𝜌𝑟0 2 1 + (𝑟ൗ )2 3/2
𝑟0• Holland (1980)
𝐵
𝑉𝑐 = 𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝐵 𝑃∞ − 𝑃𝑐

𝑉𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑉𝑚𝑎𝑥 e• Fujita (1952)

𝐵𝑟− 𝑚𝑎𝑥ൗ𝑟e

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

1
𝜌𝑟 𝐵

𝑟
𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥

7

e

7 1−

𝑟
r𝑚𝑎𝑥

0.0025𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥 +0.05 1−

,

𝑟
r𝑚𝑎𝑥

𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟 < 𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥,

𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑟 ≥ 𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥

• Holland et al. (2010)
𝑉𝑐 = 𝑉𝑚𝑎𝑥

𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥
𝑟

𝐵𝑠

e

𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥ൗ 𝐵𝑠
1−
𝑟

x

1/2

15

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

METHODS

Parametric Cyclone Models• Radius of Maximum Winds• Gross et al. (2004)
𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 35.37 − 0.111𝑉𝑚𝑎𝑥 + 0.570(Ψ − 25)• Vickery and Wadhera (2008)
ln 𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥 = 3.015 − 6.291 × 10−5 Δ𝑝 2 + 0.0337Ψ

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

16

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

METHODS

Tropical Cyclone Modeling• JMA Best Track Archive• Gradient to surface wind transformation factor = 0.7(Harper et al., 2001)• Over-land to over-water surface wind conversion following
CEM (2005)• Ambient Atmospheric Pressure = 1010 hPa• Delft Dashboard Tool
• Holland et al. (2010), Holland (1980), Fujita (1952)• Mike21 by DHI Cyclone Toolbox• Young and Sobey (1981), Modified Rankine Vortex Model2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

17

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

METHODS2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

18

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

ResultsTyphoon Meranti (2016)

Basco

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

19

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

Itbayat

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Meranti (2016)
ItbayatSea Level Pressure
Itbayat Station
RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

1020

1020

1000

1000

MSL Pressure (hPa)MSL Pressure (hPa)RMW by Gross et al (2004)

980

960

940

920

900
2016/09/12 18z

Basco

980

960

940

920

2016/09/13 18z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2016/09/14 18z

900
2016/09/12 18z

2016/09/13 18z

2016/09/14 18z

20Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Meranti (2016)
ItbayatSea Level Pressure
Basco Station
RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

1020

1020

1000

1000

MSL Pressure (hPa)MSL Pressure (hPa)RMW by Gross et al (2004)

980

960

940

920

900
2016/09/12 18z

Basco

980

960

940

920

2016/09/13 18z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2016/09/14 18z

900
2016/09/12 18z

2016/09/13 18z

2016/09/14 18z

21Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Meranti (2016)
ItbayatSurface Wind
Itbayat Station
RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Young and Sobey (1981)

RankineYoung and Sobey (1981)

Rankine

60

60

50

50

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

RMW by Gross et al (2004)

40

30

20

10

0
2016/09/12 18z

Basco

2016/09/13 18z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2016/09/14 18z

40

30

20

10

0
2016/09/12 18z

2016/09/13 18z

2016/09/14 18z

22Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Meranti (2016)
ItbayatSurface Wind
Basco Station
RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Young and Sobey (1981)

RankineYoung and Sobey (1981)

Rankine

60

60

50

50

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

RMW by Gross et al (2004)

40

30

20

10

0
2016/09/12 18z

Basco

2016/09/13 18z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2016/09/14 18z

40

30

20

10

0
2016/09/12 18z

2016/09/13 18z

2016/09/14 18z

23Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Rita (1978)

Virac
Legazpi2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

24

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

Daet

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Rita (1978)

Daet
Virac

Sea Level Pressure
Daet Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

1020.01020.01000.01000.0MSL Pressure (hPa)MSL Pressure (hPa)RMW by Gross et al (2004)

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

900.0
1978/10/25 06z

Legazpi

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

1978/10/26 06z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

1978/10/27 06z

900.0
1978/10/25 06z

1978/10/26 06z

1978/10/27 06z

25

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Rita (1978)

Daet
Virac

Sea Level Pressure
Virac Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

1020.01020.01000.01000.0MSL Pressure (hPa)MSL Pressure (hPa)RMW by Gross et al (2004)

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

900.0
1978/10/25 06z

Legazpi

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

1978/10/26 06z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

1978/10/27 06z

900.0
1978/10/25 06z

1978/10/26 06z

1978/10/27 06z

26

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Rita (1978)

Daet
Virac

Sea Level Pressure
Legazpi Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

1020.01020.01000.01000.0MSL Pressure (hPa)MSL Pressure (hPa)RMW by Gross et al (2004)

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

900.0
1978/10/25 06z

Legazpi

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

1978/10/26 06z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

1978/10/27 06z

900.0
1978/10/25 06z

1978/10/26 06z

1978/10/27 06z

27

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Rita (1978)

Daet
Virac

Surface Wind
Daet Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Young and Sobey (1981)

RankineYoung and Sobey (1981)

Rankine

60

60

50

50

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

RMW by Gross et al (2004)

40

30

20

10

0
1978/10/25 06z

Legazpi

1978/10/26 06z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

1978/10/27 06z

40

30

20

10

0
1978/10/25 06z

1978/10/26 06z

1978/10/27 06z

28

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Rita (1978)

Daet
Virac

Surface Wind
Virac Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Young and Sobey (1981)

RankineYoung and Sobey (1981)

Rankine

60.00

60.00

50.00

50.00

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

RMW by Gross et al (2004)

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
1978/10/25 06z

Legazpi

1978/10/26 06z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

1978/10/27 06z

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
1978/10/25 06z

1978/10/26 06z

1978/10/27 06z

29

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Rita (1978)

Daet
Virac

Surface Wind
Legazpi Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Young and Sobey (1981)

RankineYoung and Sobey (1981)

Rankine

60.00

60.00

50.00

50.00

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

RMW by Gross et al (2004)

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
1978/10/25 06z

Legazpi

1978/10/26 06z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

1978/10/27 06z

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
1978/10/25 06z

1978/10/26 06z

1978/10/27 06z

30

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSTyphoon Haiyan (2013)

GuiuanMactanComparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

31
2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

BoronganCatbalogan

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSCatbalogan

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Borongan
GuiuanSea Level Pressure
Guiuan Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

1020.01020.01000.01000.0MSL Pressure (hPa)MSL Pressure (hPa)RMW by Gross et al (2004)

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

900.0
2013/11/07 00z

Mactan

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

2013/11/08 00z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2013/11/09 00z

900.0
2013/11/07 00z

2013/11/08 00z

2013/11/09 00z

32Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSCatbalogan

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Borongan
GuiuanSea Level Pressure
Borongan Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

1020.01020.01000.01000.0MSL Pressure (hPa)MSL Pressure (hPa)RMW by Gross et al (2004)

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

900.0
2013/11/07 00z

Mactan

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

2013/11/08 00z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2013/11/09 00z

900.0
2013/11/07 00z

2013/11/08 00z

2013/11/09 00z

33Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSCatbalogan

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Borongan
GuiuanSea Level Pressure
Catbalogan Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

1020.01020.01000.01000.0MSL Pressure (hPa)MSL Pressure (hPa)RMW by Gross et al (2004)

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

900.0
2013/11/07 00z

Mactan

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

2013/11/08 00z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2013/11/09 00z

900.0
2013/11/07 00z

2013/11/08 00z

2013/11/09 00z

34Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSCatbalogan

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Borongan
GuiuanSea Level Pressure
Mactan Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Observed MSL Pressure

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

Fujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

1020.01020.01000.01000.0MSL Pressure (hPa)MSL Pressure (hPa)RMW by Gross et al (2004)

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

900.0
2013/11/07 00z

Mactan

980.0

960.0

940.0

920.0

2013/11/08 00z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2013/11/09 00z

900.0
2013/11/07 00z

2013/11/08 00z

2013/11/09 00z

35Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSCatbalogan

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Borongan
GuiuanSurface Wind
Guiuan Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Young and Sobey (1981)

RankineYoung and Sobey (1981)

Rankine

60.00

60.00

50.00

50.00

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

RMW by Gross et al (2004)

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
2013/11/07 00z

Mactan2013/11/08 00z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2013/11/09 00z

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
2013/11/07 00z

2013/11/08 00z

2013/11/09 00z

36

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSCatbalogan

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Borongan
GuiuanSurface Wind
Borongan Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Young and Sobey (1981)

RankineYoung and Sobey (1981)

Rankine

60.00

60.00

50.00

50.00

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

RMW by Gross et al (2004)

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
2013/11/07 00z

Mactan2013/11/08 00z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2013/11/09 00z

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
2013/11/07 00z

2013/11/08 00z

2013/11/09 00z

37Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSCatbalogan

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Borongan
GuiuanSurface Wind
Catbalogan Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Young and Sobey (1981)

RankineYoung and Sobey (1981)

Rankine

60.00

60.00

50.00

50.00

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

RMW by Gross et al (2004)

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
2013/11/07 00z

Mactan2013/11/08 00z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2013/11/09 00z

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
2013/11/07 00z

2013/11/08 00z

2013/11/09 00z

38Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSCatbalogan

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

Borongan
GuiuanSurface Wind
Mactan Station

RMW by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Observed Surface Wind

Holland et al (2010)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Holland (1980)

Fujita (1952)

Young and Sobey (1981)

RankineYoung and Sobey (1981)

Rankine

60.00

60.00

50.00

50.00

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

Observed Surface Wind (m/s)

RMW by Gross et al (2004)

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
2013/11/07 00z

Mactan2013/11/08 00z

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

2013/11/09 00z

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
2013/11/07 00z

2013/11/08 00z

2013/11/09 00z

39Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTSSurface Winds
StationHolland et al.
(2010)

Holland(1980)

Fujita(1952)

Young and Sobey(1981)

Modified
Rankine Model

R2

RMSE
(m/s)

R2

RMSE
(m/s)

R2

RMSE
(m/s)

R2

RMSE
(m/s)

R2

RMSE
(m/s)

Itbayat, Batanes

0.73

4.60

-0.91

12.25

0.07

6.71

0.07

8.55

0.65

5.21

Basco, Batanes

0.96

1.72

-0.44

10.12

0.67

4.87

0.89

2.85

0.79

3.85

Daet, Camarines Norte

0.70

3.08

-1.00

7.94

-0.19

6.11

-0.04

5.73

0.78

2.66

Virac, Catanduanes

0.52

3.84

-1.17

8.15

0.18

5.00

0.25

4.78

0.47

4.03

Legazpi, Albay

-1.95

4.98

-15.13

11.64

-5.24

7.24

-1.73

4.79

-0.37

3.39

Guiuan, Samar

0.66

4.94

0.37

6.69

0.75

4.24

0.46

6.23

0.43

6.38

Borongan, Samar

-0.78

5.55

-5.34

10.47

-1.75

6.89

-1.74

6.89

0.34

3.38

Catbalogan, Samar

-2.96

7.75

-11.23

13.63

-4.71

9.32

-3.37

8.05

-1.58

6.26

Mactan, Cebu

-0.19

4.66

-4.50

10.03

-0.56

5.34

0.21

3.81

0.36

3.41

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

40

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTS

Sea Level Pressure
Holland (1980)
StationFujita (1952)

Schloemer (1954)

R2

RMSE
(hPa)

R2

RMSE
(hPa)

R2

RMSE
(hPa)

Itbayat, Batanes

0.91

5.69

0.98

2.86

0.95

4.20

Basco, Batanes

0.83

6.33

0.79

7.16

0.80

6.90

Daet, Camarines Norte

0.81

5.13

0.58

7.62

0.70

6.46

Virac, Catanduanes

0.87

2.87

0.44

5.97

0.76

3.95

Legazpi, Albay

0.55

3.41

-0.52

6.26

0.44

3.81

Guiuan, Samar

0.79

3.45

0.38

5.47

0.77

3.66

Borongan, Samar

0.77

2.46

0.11

4.79

0.79

2.34

Catbalogan, Samar

0.77

3.02

0.07

6.03

0.64

3.76

Mactan, Cebu

0.78

2.32

-0.06

5.11

0.71

2.65

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

41

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

RESULTS2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

42

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

Conclusions• Surface winds and sea level pressure are the primary drivers in
the generation of a storm surge. The accuracy of theseparameters are necessary for reliable modeling of the storm
surge height.
• Outputs of several parametric cyclone models were compared
for three typhoon cases that made landfall in the Philippines.
Observations from nine monitoring stations were considered in
the study.

2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

43

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

Conclusions• The parametric cyclone models provided very different surface
wind profiles, but the wind field given by Holland et al. (2010)
best described the observed surface winds.
• All models provided similar pressure profiles, but theobservations were generally best matched by the Holland(1980) radial pressure distribution.
• The empirical relation derived by Vickery and Wadhera (2008)
provided a better correlation between modeled and observed
surface winds and sea level pressures, compared to the relation
given by Gross et al. (2004).
2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

44

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

Conclusions• The storm surge height can be either highly affected by thewind speeds or be highly dependent on the sea level pressure.

• For coastlines with shallow and wide continental shelves, thestorm surge height is highly attributed to the surface winds,
whereas for small islands located in deep bathymetry, the storm
surge height is primarily due to the negative ambient pressure.
• Therefore, it is recommended to select an appropriate
parametric cyclone model for use as boundary conditions to astorm surge model for a considering the characteristics of thestudy area.
2017 November 16 || Seda Hotel, Quezon City

45

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

Conclusions

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium on Intra-Regional
Water Security and Disaster Management

Marjorie C. Turiano, Eric C. Cruz
Institute of Civil Engineering
University of the Philippines Diliman

Comparative Analysis of Parametric Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for Storm Surge Simulations

Comparative Analysis of Parametric
Cyclone Models for Surface Windand Sea Level Pressure Modeling for
Storm Surge Simulations