The Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette
In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies
2010 年秋から筆者の活動の中心を東京に移した。ケンブリッジの研究者との関係を維持しつつも、米中両国、東南アジア、そして欧州の研究者との関係を強化し、グローバルな視点から読者諸兄姉と共に日本の将来を考えてみたい。従ってタイトルも Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette に変更する。
小誌は大量の資料を網羅的かつ詳細に報告するものではな
い—筆者が接した情報や文献を①マクロ経済、②資源・エネルギー、環境、③外交・安全保障の分野に関し整理したものである。紙面や時間の制約に加えて筆者の限られた能力という問題は有るが、小誌が少しでも役立つことを心か栗原 潤ら願っている。
Know the enemy and know yourself; In a hundred battles you will never be in peril.
When you are ignorant of the enemy but know yourself; Your chances of winning or losing are equal.
If ignorant both of your enemy and of yourself; You are certain in every battle to be in peril.
(Sunzi, an ancient Chinese strategist)『東京=ケンブリッジ・ガゼット: グローバル戦略編』

第 33 号 (2012 年 1 月)
キヤノングローバル戦略研究所 研究主幹
彼れを知りて己れを知れば、百戦して 殆 (あや)うからず。
彼れを知らずして己れを知れば、一勝一負す。
彼れを知らず己れを知らざれば、戦う毎に必ず殆うし。
(孫子)

今月号 «目次»
1. Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette: グローバル戦略編第 33 号
2. 情報概観—①マクロ経済、②資源・エネルギー、環境、③外交・安全保障
3. 編集後記
1. Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette: グローバル戦略編第 33 号
ノーベル経済学賞受賞学者のダニエル・カーネマン教授は、近著(Thinking, Fast and Slow, October2011)の中で、人間の判断力に関する極めて興味深い考察を提示している。即ち、人間が判断を下すための思考方法には①瞬時に判断するための直感と②或る程度の努力と時間を要する理論的推論方法の 2 種類があり、しかも容易に想像出来るが、両者が下す判断は必ずしも一致するとは限らない。
最近、我が研究所(CIGS)の仲間で TPP 推進論者の山下一仁氏に対し次の様に語った—「テレビ番組で山下さんが他の方々と議論されている様子を拝見している時、私はガリレオを思い浮かべました。科学の知識を持たないものの、純真で敬虔なキリスト教徒の人々に向かい、天動説の学者が『皆さん、地球が動いていると感じますか?』と言葉巧みに、しかも勝ち誇ったかのように語っている。
こうしたなか、ガリレオ先生は分が悪い。彼は殆んど直感を頼りに判断する人々に理論的推論の必要性を辛抱強く説いている…」、と。勿論、①の直感による判断が常に問題だ、という訳ではない。
政治的判断に関しては、カーネマン教授が指摘する通り①による判断が圧倒的である。が、諸要因が複雑に絡み合う経済現象に関し①による判断だけを頼りにすると大きな「火傷」をしかねない。
昨年 12 月 22 日、日本銀行の白川方明総裁は、「グローバリゼーションと人口高齢化: 日本の課題」という表題で講演をされ、その中で日本は、グローバル化と高齢化という 2 つの変化に対し、国家全体として「対応能力」を発揮出来なかった点を指摘されている。過去 15 年間で世界の貿易量は実質で年率 6.0%、実質 GDP は年率 3.7%増加した。翻って日本の実質国際取引額と実質 GDP はそれぞれ年率 2.6%、0.8%の増加で、巷間、たとえ日本の国際取引が拡大したとしても、所得は増えないとの判断が流布している。が、日本経済の歩みが世界のグローバル化の進展と噛み合っていなかったが故に、日本の所得が十分増加しなかった、と考えるべきではないか。従って白川総裁が主張される通り、グローバル化を「最大限に活用」することこそが、日本経済再生の戦略であると考える。
2. 情報概観

紙面の制約上、原則、参考になると筆者が判断した最新情報のみを掲載し解説や関連資料は一切省略。

マクロ経済: Macroeconomics—Books, Papers, and Articles
DeBacker, Jason et al., 2011, “Rising Inequality: Transitory or Permanent? New Evidence from a U.S. Panel of Household Income
1987-2006,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series No. 2011-60, Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board (FRB), December.
Eichengreen, Barry, 2012, “When Currencies Collapse,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 91, No. 1 (January/February), pp. 117-134.
Eichengreen, Barry and Hui Tong, 2011, “The External Impact of China’s Exchange Rate Policy: Evidence from Firm Level Data,”
NBER Working Paper No. 17593, November.
Fan, Gang/Fán, Gāng (樊纲) and Huang Yiping/Huáng Yìpíng (黄益平), eds., 2011, Yàzhōu Qūyù Hézuò yǔ Guójì Chǔbèi Huòbì TǐxìGǎigé [Regional Cooperation in Asia and Reforms of International Reserve Currency System/«亚洲区域合作与国际储备货币体系

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The Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette (In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies)
No. 33 (January 2012)「有言“不”実行」でも可と思う人が、如何に多いことか。しかも彼等は話の巧みな人の言葉に耳を傾け、それを聞いただけで満足する。
かくして人生は往々にして、巧みな演説、美しい本、そして見事な芝居に満たされたもので終ってしまう。そしてそれまで堂々と語っていたことを実行することなど、ほとんど考えもしない。
(シャルル・ヴァグネル)How many people content themselves with speaking, and believe that it exempts them from acting! And those who listen arecontent with having heard them. So it sometimes happens that a life may in the end be made up of a few well-turned speeches, afew fine books, and a few great plays. As for practicing what is so magisterially set forth, that is the last thing thought of.
[Combien y a-t-il de gens qui se sont contentés de parler et ont cru que cela les dispensait d’agir? Et ceux qui les écoutent secontentent d’avoir entendu parler. Il se trouve ainsi qu’une vie peut bien ne se composer à la longue, que de quelques discoursbien tournés, de quelques beaux livres, de quelques belles pièces de théâtre. Quant à pratiquer ce qui est si magistralement
exposé, on n’y songe guère.](Charles Wagner, French reformed pastor)

改革»], Beijing: Shèhuì Kēxué Wénxiàn Chūbǎnshè (社会科学文献出版社), December.
Feldstein, Martin, 2012, “The Failure of the Euro,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 91 No. 1 (January/February), pp. 105-116.
Frankel, Jeffrey A. et al., 2011, “On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality,” NBER Working Paper No. 17619, November.
Furceri, Davide and Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2011, “How Costly Are Debt Crises?” Working Paper No. 11/280, Washington, D.C.:
International Monetary Fund (IMF), December.
Howard, Greg et al., 2011, “Are Recoveries from Banking and Financial Crises Really So Different?” International Finance Discussion
Papers No. 1037, Washington, D.C.: Federal Reserve Board (FRB), November.
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2011, “People’s Republic of China - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 2011 Article IVConsultation,” Country Report No. 11/348, Washington, D.C.: IMF, December.
Lam, Raphael W. and Kiichi Tokuoka (徳岡喜一), 2011, “Assessing the Risks to the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Market,”
Working Paper No. 11/292, Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF), December.
Obstfeld, Maurice, 2011, “The International Monetary System: Living with Asymmetry,” NBER Working Paper No. 17641, December.
Wang, Luolin/Wáng, Luòlín (王洛林) and Zhang Yuyan/Zhāng Yǔyàn (張宇燕), eds., 2012, Shìjie Jīngjì Huángpíshū: 2012-nián ShìjieJīngjì Xíngshì Fēnxī yǔ Yùcè [World Economic Analysis and Forecast/«世界经济黄皮书 2012 年世界经济形势分析与预测»],Beijing: Shèhuì Kēxué Wénxiàn Chūbǎnshè (社会科学文献出版社), January.
マクロ経済: Macroeconomics—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
December 14: (New York City) Council on Foreign Relations (CFR): “What Have We Learned about Macroeconomics from the Crisis?”;Speakers: Olivier Blanchard (Economic Counselor and Dir. of the Research Dept., International Monetary Fund (IMF)), Richard H.
Clarida (Prof., Columbia University, and former Asst. Secy. for Economic Policy, U.S. Treasury), Mark Zandi (Chief Economist,Moody’s Analytics); Presider: James F. Hoge Jr. (Counselor, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)).
資源・エネルギー、環境: Resources, Energy, and Environment—Books, Papers, and Articles
Eyraud, Luc et al., 2011, “Who’s Going Green and Why? Trends and Determinants of Green Investment,” Working Paper No. 11/296,
Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund (IMF), December.
Jiang, Xuemei et al., 2011, “Impacts of Policy Measures on the Development of State-Owned Forests in Northeast China: Theoretical
Results and Empirical Evidence,” Discussion Paper EfD 11-12, Washington, D.C.: Resources for the Future, December.
Schofield, Clive, 2011, “Maritime Energy Resources in Asia: Energy and Geopolitics,” NBR Reports, Seattle, WA: National Bureau ofAsian Research (NBR), December.
資源・エネルギー、環境: Resources, Energy, and Environment—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
January 5: (Washington, D.C.) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS): “U.S. Department of Energy: 2011 Critical
Materials Strategy”; Speaker: David Sandalow (Asst. Secy. for Policy and International Affairs, U.S. Dept. of Energy (DOE)).
外交・安全保障: Diplomacy and National Security—Books, Papers, and Articles
Beckley, Michael, 2011, “China’s Century?: Why America’s Edge Will Endure,” International Security, Vol. 36, No. 3 (Winter 2011/12),
pp. 41-78.
Birkler, John, et al., 2011, “Australia’s Submarine Design Capabilities and Capacities: Challenges and Options for the Future
Submarine,” Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, December.
Erickson, Andrew S. et al., 2012, “Beijing’s ‘Starter Carrier’ and Future Steps: Alternatives and Implications,” U.S. Naval War College
Review, Vol. 65, No. 1 (Winter), pp. 15-54.
Kang, David C., 2011, “They Think They’re Normal: Enduring Questions and New Research on North Korea—A Review Essay,”International Security, Vol. 36, No. 3 (Winter 2011/12), pp. 142-171.
Kim, Duk-ki (김덕기), 2012, “The Republic of Korea’s Counter-asymmetric Strategy: Lessons from ROKS Cheonan and Yeonpyeong
Island,” U.S. Naval War College Review, Vol. 65, No. 1 (Winter), pp. 55-74.
Li, Cheng (李成), 2012, “The Battle for China’s Top Nine Leadership Posts,” Washington Quarterly, Vol. 35, No. 1 (Winter), pp.
131-145.
Koh, Swee Lean Collin, 2012, “Seeking Balance: Force Projection, Confidence Building, and the Republic of Singapore Navy,” U.S.
Naval War College Review, Vol. 65, No. 1 (Winter), pp. 75-92.
Scobell, Andrew, David Lai and Roy Kamphausen, eds., 2011, “Chinese Lessons from Other Peoples’ Wars,” Carlisle, PA: StrategicStudies Institute (SSI), U.S. Army War College (USAWC), November.
Swenson-Wright, John, 2011, “North Korea’s Leadership Transition: Stability Rather Than Chaos,” Programme Paper, London: Chatham
House, December.
United States Government, the White House, 2011, “Remarks by the President on the Defense Strategic Review,” January 5,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/01/05/remarks-president-defense-strategic-review.
Wu, Chao/Wú, Chāo (吴超), and Li Daguang1/Lǐ Dàguāng (李大光), 2011, “Hǎishàng Yùnshūxiàn Shìguān Zhōngguó Fāzhǎn [SeaLanes Are of Vital Importance for China’s Development/海上运输线事关中国发展],” Dangdai Haijun/Dāngdài Hǎijūn [ModernJun Kurihara; 栗原 潤

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The Tokyo-Cambridge Gazette (In Search of Japan’s Global Strategies)
No. 33 (January 2012)
智識ヲ世界ニ求メ大ニ皇基ヲ振起スベシ。
(明治天皇、『五箇条の御誓文』より)

Knowledge shall be sought throughout the world so as to strengthen the foundations of imperial rule.
(Emperor Meiji, Article Five of the Imperial Oath of Five Articles)

Navy/«当代海军»], No. 10 (October), pp. 50-52.
Yu, Xintian/Yú, Xīntiān (俞新天), 2012, Tànsuǒ Zhōngguó yǔ Shìjiede Hùdòng: Xiàndàihuà, Dìqū Hézuò yǔ Duìwài Zhànlüè
[Exploration of Interaction between China and the World: Modernization, Regional Cooperation, and Foreign Strategy/«探索中国与世界的互动:现代化、地区合作与对外战略»], Shanghai: Shànghǎi Rénmín Chūbǎnshè (上海人民出版社), January.
外交・安全保障: Diplomacy and National Security—Conferences, Workshops and Seminars
December 2: (Washington, D.C.) Brookings Institution: “Japan and the Trans-Pacific Partnership”: Introduction: Richard C. Bush III(Director, Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies); Junko Chano (茶野順子) (President, Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA);
Panel 1: “TPP: Views from Tokyo and Washington”: Moderator: Timothy Keeler (Partner, Mayer Brown LLP); Wendy Cutler(Assistant U.S. Trade Representative, Office of the U.S. Trade Representative), William C. “Bill” Lane (Director, Washington Office,Caterpillar Inc.), Michitaka Nakatomi (中富道隆) (Principal Trade Negotiator, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry); Panel 2:“Japan, TPP, and the Global Trade Regime”; Moderator: Edward Lincoln (Former Director, Center for Japan Business andEconomic Studies, Stern School of Business, New York University); Mike Moore (Ambassador of New Zealand to the UnitedStates), Tami Overby (Vice President for Asia, U.S. Chamber of Commerce), Clayton Yeutter (Senior Advisor, Hogan Lovells,Former U.S. Trade Representative and former U.S. Secretary of Agriculture); Panel 3: “Japan’s Perspectives on TPP”; Moderator:
Daniel Bob (Senior Fellow and Director of U.S.-Japan Programs, Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA), Kiyoaki Aburaki (油木清明)(U.S. Representative, Keidanren, Visiting Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies), Richard Katz (Editor-in-Chief, The
Oriental Economist, Special Correspondent, Weekly Toyo Keizai), Heizo Takenaka (竹中平蔵) (Director, Global Security ResearchInstitute, Keio University and Senior Research Fellow, Japan Center for Economic Research, Former Minister of State for Economicand Fiscal Policy), Takashi Terada (寺田貴) (Professor of International Relations, Waseda University).
January 4: (Washington, D.C.) American Enterprise Institute (AEI): “Reviving Japan: Can It Win the Asian Century?”; Introduction:
Gary J. Schmitt (AEI); Speaker:Taro Kono (河野太郎) (National Diet of Japan (Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)); Panelists:
Michael Auslin (AEI), Claude Barfield (AEI), Tetsuo Kotani (小谷哲男) (Okazaki Institute), Sugio Takahashi (高橋杉雄) (NationalInstitute for Defense Studies and Strategic Planning Office, Ministry of Defense); Moderator: Moderator: Randy Schriver (Project2049 Institute).
その他—Information in Other Fields
Adrian, Tobias and Hyun Song Shin (신현송), 2011, “Financial Intermediary Balance Sheet Management,” Staff Report No. 532, New
York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, December.
Bernard, Andrew B. et al., 2011, “The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade,” NBER Working Paper No. 17627,November.
Furgusson, Ian F. and Bruce Vaughn, 2011, “The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement,” R40502, Washington, D.C.: Congressional
Research Service (CRS), December.
Liu, Runjuan (刘润娟) and Daniel Trefler, 2011, “A Sorted Tale of Globalization: White Collar Jobs and the Rise of Service Offshoring,”
NBER Working Paper No. 17559, November.
Palladini, Giorgia and Richard Portes, 2011, “Sovereign CDS and Bond Pricing Dynamics in the Euro-Area,” NBER Working Paper No.
17586, November.
Thompson, Richard M., 2011, “Governmental Tracking of Cell Phones and Vehicles: The Confluence of Privacy, Technology, and Law,”
R42109, Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service (CRS), December.
World Economic Forum (WEF), 2011, “The Financial Development Report 2011,” Geneva: WEF, December.
Event: December 6: (Washington, D.C.) American Enterprise Institute (AEI): “Bridging the Pacific: Forging New Trade Alliances withAsia”: Panelists: Gary Horlick (Law Offices of Gary Horlick), Philip I. Levy (AEI), Tami Overby, (U.S. Chamber of Commerce),
Jeffrey Schott (Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)); Moderator: Claude Barfield (AEI).

3. 編集後記
年末、筆者同様、新しいシンクタンクに所属する親友と語り合った—北京で、Lǐ Zhàoxīng (李肇星)
前外相の下、Institute for National Soft Power (INSP)(国家软实力研究院)で要職を務める Yáo Yáo (姚遥)
氏 と 、 ソ ウ ル で 、 Han Seung-soo (한승수) 前 総 理 の 下 、 Global Green Growth Institute (GGGI)(글로벌녹색성장연구소)で大活躍中の Lee Joo-Sueb (이주섭)氏だ。東アジアの平和と安定のため、今年こそは、冷静な頭脳と暖かい心の持主である両氏と共に、①直感的に、また②理論的にも納得出来るよう、討議を十分深めてゆきたいと決意を新たにしている。
以上
Jun KURIHARA
Research Director, Canon Institute for Global Studies
Senior Fellow (non-resident), Harvard Kennedy School(編集責任者) 栗原 潤
キヤノングローバル戦略研究所 研究主幹
ハーバード大学ケネディ行政大学院 シニア・フェロー〒100-6511 東京都千代田区丸の内 1-5-1 新丸の内ビルディング 11 階 Tel: +81-(0)3-6213-0550 (代) Kurihara.Jun@gmail.com
過去の Cambridge Gazette はネット上で見ることが出来、ダウンロードも出来ます。ネット上でキヤノングローバル戦略研究所のウェブサイトに行き、そこで栗原のコラム・論文の欄をクリックして頂ければ、バックナンバー全てが見れます。

3Jun Kurihara; 栗原潤