Environmental and Resource
Assessment for Uptake of
LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

An analysis
of sustainable
potential of
LC3

IMPRINT
Published bySociety for Technology and Action for Rural Advancement (TARA)
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Telephone: +91-11-26544100
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Vision and Direction

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Dr. Arun Kumar (President)
Development Alternatives (DA)2

Dr. Soumen Maity (Associate Vice President)
Society for Technology and Action for Rural Advancement (TARA)
Authors
Kranav SharmaSociety for Technology and Action for Rural Advancement (TARA)
Dr. Arun Kumar
Development Alternatives (DA)Dr. Soumen Maity
Society for Technology and Action for Rural Advancement (TARA)All the content or information present here is the exclusive property of Society for Technology and Action for Rural Advancement (TARA). The
content/information contained here is correct at the time of publishing. The views expressed in this report/document do not necessarily reflect
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appearing here may violate copyright, trademark & other applicable laws & could result is criminal or civil penalties.

©TARA 2020

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

To begin with, we acknowledge the Swiss Agency for Development andCooperation (SDC) whose financial support underpins all endeavors of thisstudy. Our sincere thanks to all domestic and international project partners
viz. Prof. Karen Scrivener at École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL)
Switzerland, Dr. Shashank Bishnoi at Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi,
Prof. Ravindra Gettu and Prof. Manu Santhanam at IIT Madras, Prof. Fernando
Martirena at Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo de Estructuras y Materiales(CIDEM) Cuba, Ms. Anne Dekeukelaere and Mr. Laurent Grimmeissen at
Cementis GmbH and Dr. Urs Heierli at MSD Consulting GmbH; who havewholeheartedly contributed towards the betterment of this study.
A special mention to various individuals, whose views have been accessed
personally, through one-to-one interactions, the internet and printed
documents. Without them, the research and analysis efforts captured in thisreport would not have been possible.
Society for Technology and Action for Rural Advancement (TARA)

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Active contribution, involvement and support of certain individuals andorganisations has proved invaluable towards successful implementation ofthis study. The team members at TARA would hereby like to extend a note ofappreciation towards them.

3

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Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES

6

LIST OF TABLES

6

ABBREVIATIONS

7EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

8

1. Introduction

11
12

Environmental Challenges

12

Resource Challenges

15

Past Sustainability Performance16

Outlook17

2. LC3: An Opportunity
Constituents of LC
Benefits of LC

3

3

19
20
22

3. The Study

23

Objectives

24

Scope

24

Methodology and Approach

24

Methodology

24

Approach26

Two Distinct Cement Production Scenarios

4. Results

26

31

Summary of Results

32

Detailed Results

32

Environmental Impacts

32

Resource Efficiency Benefits

36

5. Conclusions

41

Role of LC3

42

Low Carbon Pathways (LCPs) Roadmap

42

Call for an Early Action

43

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Environmental and Resource Challenges in India

5

LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Current trend in overall cement mix in India

12

Figure 2: Current trend in clinker factor in India

13

Figure 3: Current trend in CO2 emissions from cement industry in India

13

Figure 4: Current trend in direct specific CO2 emissions in India

14

Figure 5: Modes of limestone utilisation in India

15

Figure 6: Current trend in limestone consumption in India

16

Figure 7: Forecast trend in cement production in India

18

Figure 8: Synergy diagram for formation of LC
Figure 9: Typical composition of LC

3

3

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Figure 10: Stepwise methodology adopted for conducting study

6

20
21
25

Figure 11: Established indicators for assessing performance

26

Figure 12: Cement production trend in India – BAU

27

Figure 13: Cement production trend in India – LCP-1

29

Figure 14: Cement production trend in India – LCP-2

29

Figure 15: Cement production trend in India – LCP-3

30

Figure 16: Forecast trend in average Clinker Factor

33

Figure 17: Total CO2 emissions in all scenarios

34

Figure 18: Forecast trend in direct CO2 emissions intensity

34

Figure 19: Forecast trend in yearly CO2 savings

35

Figure 20: Cumulative CO2 savings

35

Figure 21: Cumulative land preservation

36

Figure 22: Cumulative limestone consumption

37

Figure 23: Forecast trend in yearly limestone savings

37

Figure 24: Cumulative limestone savings

38

Figure 25: Forecast trend in limestone reserves exhaustion

38

Figure 26: Forecast trend in non-ceramic grade china clay consumption

39

Figure 27: Cumulative non-ceramic grade china clay utilisation

39

Figure 28: Forecast trend in non-cement grade limestone consumption

40

Figure 29: Cumulative non-cement grade limestone utilisation

40

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Snapshot of Indian cement industry’s sustainability performance17

Table 2: Summary of results obtained32

ABBREVIATIONS
Abbreviation

Full FormBAU

Business As Usual

CO2

Carbon dioxide

CIDEM

Centro de Investigación y Desarrollo de Estructuras y Materiales

CAGR

Compound Annual Growth Rate°C

Degree Celsius

EPFL

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne

GWhGiga Watt Hour

GHG

Greenhouse Gas

IBM

Indian Bureau of Mines

IIT

Indian Institute of Technology
Limestone Calcined Clay Cement

LCP

Low Carbon Pathway

MW

Mega Watt

MPa

Megapascal

OPC

Ordinary Portland Cement

PAT

Perform Achieve and Trade

PPC

Portland Pozzolana Cement

PSC

Portland Slag Cement

SDC

Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation

TARA

Technology and Action for Rural Advancement

USD

United States Dollar

WHR

Waste Heat Recovery

WBCSD

World Business Council for Sustainable Development

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

LC

3

7

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

8The Indian cement industry is a vital part of its
economy, providing direct and indirect employment
to more than a million people in the country. In 2018,
the country produced 298 million tonnes of cement(equating to a 7% share of the global mix) and has
installed production capacity of 502 million tonnes perannum. Its cement production is expected to undergoa phase of rapid expansion between 2020 to 2050,
following the projected growth in the country’s
construction sector. The country’s cement production
is estimated to grow to nearly 1,042 million tonnes by
2047, close to 300% increase from current production
amount. This inevitable expansion of the cement
industry will lead to an increase in the Carbon Dioxide(CO2) emissions to unsustainable levels, reaching 674
million tonnes by 2047 (25% of the total GHG
emissions of the country at present). Apart from theabove environmental implications, Business As Usual(BAU) growth will result in serious mineral resource
issues and divergence of compliance with national andinternational regulations. The current availability of
cement-grade limestone is 14,000 million tonnes. It isprojected that, by 2047, BAU scenario will requiresourcing of 9,400 million tonnes of additional
limestone resources which, at present, are notcommercially exploited and would require mining ineco-sensitive zones and inaccessible areas. Thus, it isevident that the pursuit of the current pattern of
cement production will be unsustainable from boththe environment and resource perspective.
Limestone Calcined Clay Cement (LC3) is a blend ofclinker with 30% calcined clay and 15% non-cement
grade limestone and presents a potentially viable
solution in addressing the looming environmental andresource crunch. LC3 utilises medium grade Kaolinitic
clays and limestone that are abundantly available inthe country, thereby significantly reducing the clinker
factor in cement production. Moreover, it contributes
to 30% reduction in CO2 emissions and is energy andcost effective. Lastly, LC3 can be produced in a processcompatible with OPC and PPC by integrating andblending with existing manufacturing equipment,
leading to only marginally increased investments for
installation of calcining equipment. The introductionof LC3 in India’s cement mix has the potential tosignificantly enhance the environmental and resource
performance in the country’s cement sector. The
scenario building with LC3 becoming a significant
constituent of the cement mix is presented in the Low
Carbon Pathways (LCPs) roadmap.

In order to ascertain the net-positive effects due tointroduction of LC3, a comparative analysis of theenvironmental and resource performance has been
carried out between diverse cement production
scenarios, termed as Business As Usual (BAU) and
Low-Carbon Pathway (LCP) scenarios; involving
production of LC3. The period of performing theanalysis is twenty-five years, i.e. from 2022 to 2047.
The BAU scenario is essentially an extension of theprevailing cement scenario in the country till 2047.
The trajectory of overall cement production shallfollow the projections created by NITI Aayog which
envisage production of around 1,042 million tonnesof cement by the year 2047. Characterised as a basescenario, BAU involves continued production of thethree dominant cement varieties in India (namely
PPC, OPC and PSC) between the period 2022 to 2047.
It is assumed that the Indian cement production mix
will be identical to the current scenario and remainunchanged throughout the assessment period (20222047). Thus, the percentage contribution of PPC, OPC
and PSC to total cement production will stay at 67%,
25% and 8% respectively. This translates into a
cumulative production of 12,282 million tonnes of
PPC, requiring nearly 3,070 million tonnes of fly ash
over the entire assessment period. Although theshare of coal in India’s electricity mix will graduallyfall, it will continue to play a dominant role by 2047.
This will ensure sufficient generation of fly ash in the
country thereby fully catering to the expecteddemand for PPC production. Moreover, in this
scenario contribution from other cement varieties(white cement, rapid hardening cement etc.), which
remains minimal at present, will not be considered.
Based on the above assumptions, this scenario is
considered to be unsustainable. Keeping along thepathway envisaged under this scenario will result inhuge increase in country wide GHG emissions,overexploitation of critical natural resources (likelimestone) and degradation of large swathes ofprotected areas. Low Carbon Pathway (LCP) scenarios
are proposed as feasible alternatives to the BAU
scenario, having the same duration, i.e. 2022-2047.
The quantum of overall cement production shallfollow the BAU. The key differentiator between the
BAU and LCP scenarios is the introduction of LC3 alongwith the three main cement varieties (PPC, OPC and
PSC). The ‘overarching’ LCP scenario has been further
divided into three distinct sub-scenarios namely, LCP1, LCP-2 and LCP-3. All three LCP sub-scenarios

consider uptake of LC3 production in India’s overall
cement mix starting from 2022 (the zero year), tovarying degrees to reach different levels of saturation.
The production of LC3 is gradually scaled up to obtain acertain percentage share by the year 2035, which is
projected to remain constant till 2047. The extent towhich LC3 penetrates the cement mix by 2035 isdifferent for each sub-scenario, increasing from LCP-1
to LCP-3. The penetration rate of LC3 in LCP-1, LCP-2
and LCP-3 is 15%, 33% and 50% respectively. This
corresponds to a cumulative production of 2,384,
5,240 and 7,937 million tonnes of LC3 in LCP-1, LCP-2
and LCP-3.
Such levels of production will accordingly requirenearly 715, 1,572 and 2,381 million tonnes of China
Clay over the entire assessment period. Irrespective of
the scenario, based on latest data from Indian Bureauof Mines (IBM), it was determined that India has
sufficient reserves of China Clay to fully cater to the
expected demand for LC3 production. In the zero year,

the starting percentage shares of PPC, OPC and PSC
will be 67%, 25% and 8% respectively, same as BAU
scenario. However, the percentage shares for PPC and
OPC will not stay constant, which is a deviation fromthe BAU scenario. This is due to the introduction of LC3
in the cement mix. For PPC, the percentage share will
decrease in LCP-2 and LCP-3 only, while for OPC it will
decrease in all the three sub-scenarios to 10% by 2035
and stay constant thereafter till 2047. In line with BAU,
PSC will have a share of 8% that will remain constantthroughout the period. Moreover, the starting
percentage share of LC3 in the overall cement mix in
India will be 1%, which will be based on the type of
sub-scenario (i.e. LCP-1, LCP-2 or LCP-3). It should be
noted that LC3 production will only start from 2023
(first year), although the period of assessment starts
from the zero year.
Summaries of the essential features of each LCP subscenario have been provided below:•

LC3 consumes the market share of OPC only•

Total percentage share of LC3 in overall cement mix by 2035 will be 15% and stay constant thereafter till 2047•

PPC and PSC percentage shares to be at 67% and 8% respectively, OPC to reduce to 10% by 2035 and stay
constant till 2047

Low Carbon Pathway-2 (LCP-2) Scenario - Key Highlights•

LC3 consumes the market share of both OPC and PPC•

Total percentage of LC3 in overall cement mix by 2035 will be 33% and stay constant thereafter till 2047•

PSC percentage share to be 8%, OPC to reduce to 10% by 2035 and stay constant thereafter; balance shall be
PPC

Low Carbon Pathway-3 (LCP-3) Scenario - Key Highlights•

LC3 consumes the market share of both OPC and PPC•

Total percentage of LC3 in overall cement mix by 2035 will be 50% and stay constant thereafter till 2047•

PSC percentage share to be 8%, OPC to reduce to 10% by 2035 and stay constant thereafter; balance shall be
PPC

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Low Carbon Pathway-1 (LCP-1) Scenario - Key Highlights

9This study has concluded that scenarios withintroduction and growing proportion of LC3 have abetter environmental performance and improved
resource utilisation compared to BAU. Each LCP subscenario leads to a lowering of clinker factor andcorresponding CO2 emissions. The IBM data showsthat the non-ceramic grade China clay is widely
available in India, overlapping with existing cement
plants and captive mines. Moreover, in terms ofresource performance, all LCPs generate a fair amountof limestone savings, support utilisation of noncement grade limestone and non-ceramic grade China
Clay.

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

In this study, LCP-3 scenario represents the mostaggressive pathway and involves highest penetrationof LC3 in the Indian cement mix. Thus, implementing
LCP-3 scenario would provide the highest
environmental and resource benefits compared to
BAU. Between 2022 to 2047, the cumulative CO2
savings that would result from this scenario are 1,221
million tonnes, which is 45% of India’s current GHG
emissions. It is observed that the terminal value of theclinker factor for LCP-3 scenario will approach 0.59.
This matches the target of 0.58 set up in the low
carbon roadmap envisaged for sustainableproduction in India by WBCSD. Alternatively, WBCSD
has considered five important levers (which does notinclude LC3) that will help attain the targeted clinker
factor value namely AFR, thermal and electrical

10

efficiency, clinker substitution, WHR, and newer
technologies. Thus, adoption and integration of LC3 inthe overall cement mix has potential to attain thesame long-term sustainability performance which will
be delivered by all of the ‘low carbon’ levers
combined. In terms of resource performance, LCP-3
scenario would also lead to a cumulative saving of
3,274 million tonnes of cement-grade limestone andnearly 1,191 million tonnes of non-cement grade
limestone. This cuts down the additional limestone
resources to be, hitherto, prospected by 35%
compared to BAU scenario. Lastly, it promotes
utilisation of about 2,381 million tonnes of China Clay;
which is abundantly available in the country.
It is estimated that continuation of the BAU scenario
will lead to severe effects on the environment andnatural resources by the year 2038. It is projected thatin the ensuing decade till 2047, BAU scenario will
require nearly 9,400 million tonnes of additional
limestone resources which, at present, are notcommercially accessible and would require mining ineco-sensitive zones. In the aggressive LCP-3 scenario,
the introduction of LC3 extends the utilisation ofavailable limestone resources by three years. It
further curtails the additional mined limestone
resources to 6,100 million tonnes. This impending
reality necessitates an early action which will involvean accelerated uptake of LC3 in India’s cement mix inorder to ensure sustainable growth in the country.

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

CHAPTER

Introduction

1

11

Cement is defined as a hydraulic material made of finely ground nonmetallic,inorganic material which when mixed with water forms a paste that sets and hardens
by hydration which retains its strength and stability even under water. It is a key
constituent in buildings and civil engineering constructions and its usage is an
important indicator of socio-economic progress. Since its development in early
1800s, cement has been a mainstay of construction activities globally, ranging from asmall residential dwelling to a massive public infrastructure projects. The cement
manufacturing process can be effectively broken down into the following broadstages: extraction and sourcing of raw materials like limestone, gypsum, fly ash etc. tothe cement plant, raw materials processing and clinkerisation, grinding of clinker andblending with other additives to form powdered cement, packing and transportationof the final product. There are different varieties of cement based on different
compositions according to specific end uses, like, Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC),
Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC), Portland Slag Cement (PSC), White Cement among
others.

Environmental and Resource Challenges in India
Cement production is one of the most resource and energy intensive processes
causing significant impact on the environment (through generation of CO2 emissions
and solid and liquid waste) and natural resource base (used as both raw materials andfuels).

Environmental Challenges

12

In India, in the past decade, the share of blended cement in total cement production
has increased from 68% in 2010 to around 72% in 2017 [1]. This escalation can be
attributed to a variety of reasons viz. availability of fly ash and ground blast furnace
slag from respective sources, growing market acceptance, increasing focus towards
adopting sustainable measures and usage of state-of-the-art techniques andtechnology. Figure 1 provides a trend in overall cement mix in India between 20102017.

Figure 1: Current trend in overall cement mix in India

Percentage of various cement types

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Clinker Factor

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

7%

8%

7%

61%

61%

61%

61%

61%

61%

65%

65%

31%

31%

31%

31%

31%

31%

27%

27%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

OPC

PPC

PSC

The clinker factor in India has reduced by more than 10%, steadily falling from 0.79 in2005 to 0.71 in 2017 [2]. Figure 2 provides a trend in clinker factor in India between
2005-2017.

Figure 2: Current trend in clinker factor in India
0.80
0.79
0.78

Clinker factor

0.77
0.76
0.75
0.74
0.73
0.72
0.71
0.70
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

However, the current clinker factor in the country is still greater than the world’s
average value of 0.66 and China’s value of 0.60 [3]. A high clinker factor represents
more consumption of limestone and increased generation of GHG emissions during
the production process. Thus, it is our environmental imperative to further reduce theclinker factor in India.

The Indian cement industry contributes a significant amount to the total
anthropogenic CO2 emissions, comprising a 7 to 8% share of the total annual CO2
emissions (mirroring global scenario) released in the country [4]. Since the turn of themillennium, the CO2 emissions from the cement industry have increased by a CAGR of
4.9%, going from 45.97 million tonnes CO2e in the year 2000 to 108.90 million tonnes
CO2e in 2017 [2]. Figure 3 provides a trend in the CO2 emissions from the cement
industry in India between 2000 and 2017.

Figure 3: Current trend in CO2 emissions from cement industry in India

CO2 emissions(million tonnes CO2e)

120
100
80
60
40
20
0

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

CO2 emissions

13

The magnitude of projected demand for building and infrastructure in the country will
result in cement industry expanding threefold till 2050, resulting in a proportionate
increase in the sector’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This is a cause for concern as
release of such large quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere will exacerbate the extent
of global warming and intensify the effects related to climate change. Further, theprojected rise in CO2 would be incompatible with the climate commitments made at
COP 21 and result in our failure to meet the 2°C average global temperature increase
limit.
Although the direct and indirect specific CO2 emissions related to cement productionin India have dropped by a third since 1996, the total absolute CO2 emissions havebeen steadily increasing (as indicated in Figure 3).
Looking at recent trends, the direct specific CO2 emissions due to cement production
have decreased by 5.2%, going from in 0.620 tCO2/t cement in 2010 to 0.588 tCO2/t
cement in 2017 [2]. Figure 4 provides a trend in direct specific CO2 emissions from2010 to 2017.

Figure 4: Current trend in direct specific CO2 emissions in India

Direct specific CO2 emissions(tCO2/t cement)

0.630
0.620
0.610
0.600
0.590
0.580

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

0.570

14

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

An emerging cause of concern is that a dedicated shift towards a green andcircular economy could disrupt future production and availability of key
Secondary Cementitious Materials (viz. fly ash and slag) in some areas of thecountry. This can result in levelling off in their supply leading to a failure inmeeting the burgeoning cement demand. This is likely to impede the future
growth in production of the current varieties of blended cements (viz. PPC and
PSC). Absence of suitable alternatives may compel cement companies to
produce more Ordinary Portland cement, thereby increasing the average clinker
factor domestically and globally. The consequences of this will be increased
consumption of limestone subsequently causing a surge in global CO2 emissions.
This potential risk presents an opportunity to fast track development andintroduction of a low clinker content cement in the Indian mix of cements.

Resource Challenges
Cement production is primarily dependent upon assured availability of limestone, fly
ash and slag as a raw materials and pet-coke and coal as fuel sources to power the
production process. Presently, in India, the cement sector accounts for consumptionof nearly 288 million tonnes of limestone [5], 19 million tonnes of pet-coke (75% of
total demand) [6] and 7.7 million tonnes of raw coal [7]. Additionally, it is also
responsible for around 24,000 GWh of electricity usage (equivalent to consuming 4
million tonnes of coal), which is 5% of total industrial use [7]. Driven by a burgeoning
demand from construction and infrastructure sectors, the domestic cement industry
is projected to expand by 5 to 7% annually till 2030 and beyond [8]. The prospects offuture growth brings in a host of challenges as well, chief amongst them is ensuringcontinued supply of material resources to meet future demand. The projecteddemand pattern will exert enormous stress on the both primary and secondary
material resources (used as raw materials and fuels) and identified above.
The future availability of cement-grade limestone has been recognised as one of the
primary resource challenges faced by the Indian cement industry, which is further
elaborated in the section below.

Limestone Consumption

Figure 5: Modes of limestone utilisation in India

3%

2%

95%

Cement industry

Iron and steel industry

Chemical industry

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Limestone is the main raw material used for cement production and typicallyconstitutes the largest share (ranging from 65 to 95%) in the cement recipe. As anestablished thumb rule, each tonne of cement production requires nearly 1.4 to 1.5
tonnes of raw limestone [9]. The cement industry accounts for more than 90% of theoverall limestone consumption in the country. The industry-wise break up of
limestone usage has been provided in Figure 5.

15

The widespread availability of cement grade limestone and sustained construction
activity are the foremost reasons for the rapid and sustained expansion in capacity of
the Indian cement industry. As per the Indian Bureau of Mines (IBM) data released in2018, the total resources of limestone in the country were estimated to be about
203,224 million tonnes [5]. Out of that, the availability of proven limestone reserves
was estimated to be around 9,438.94 million tonnes [5]. Around 90% (8,495.04
million tonnes) of the proven limestone reserves found in India are cement grade (i.e.
having at least 40% Calcium Oxide content) [5]. Remaining 10% (943.90 million
tonnes) are categorised as Blast Furnace, Chemical, Paper, Unclassified and Other
grades. Further, the geographical availability of limestone is fairly restricted within the
country, with only a few states viz. Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat andMeghalaya accounting for nearly 70% of the total existing resources [5]. The annual
average limestone consumption from 2011-2017 was reported to be about 252
million tonnes [5].
Figure 6 provides the trend in consumption of limestone in the period between 20092017.

Figure 6: Current trend in limestone consumption in India

Limestone consumption(million tonnes)

300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Limestone consumption - cement

16

2014

2015

2016

2017

OthersBased on projected cement demand, the country is likely to run out of provenlimestone reserves latest by 2040. The imminent exhaustion of limestone reserves
would either lead to further extraction of remaining resources in eco-sensitive zones
or import of limestone from other countries; both being opposed to the basic tenetsof sustainability. Further, both these factors will be detrimental to the Indian cement
industry which is heavily reliant on easy availability and cheap supply of domestic
limestone.

Past sustainability performance
The Indian cement industry is regarded as the most technologically advanced, energyefficient, cost-effective and one of the least carbon-intensive in the world. This has
been made possible through industry’s successful integration of sustainability
practices across the entire value chain. Specifically, in the past decade, the cement
manufacturers through introduction of various cutting-edge technologies,
operational innovations, climate-resilient resource optimisation measures andconformance with stringent standards have created environmental and economic
benefits. The main achievements of the cement industry have been highlighted in theforthcoming section.
A snapshot of the sustainability performance has been provided in Table 1 (Source:
WBCSD).

Table 1: Snapshot of Indian cement industry’s sustainability performance
Percentage share of blended cements

72%

Utilisation rate of Alternate Fuels

3%

Total installed WHRS capacity

344 MW

CO2 emissions intensity

670 kgCO2/t cement

In the past decade, the CO2 emissions intensity due to cement production has reduced
by 6.8%, falling from 710 kgCO2/t cement in 2010 to 670 kgCO2/t cement in 2017 [1].
During the same period, the share of blended cement in total cement production inIndia has increased from 68% in 2010 to around 72% in 2017 [1]. The Waste Heat
Recovery System (WHRS) capacity in India has almost doubled (increased by 212%)
since 2010, attaining a total installed capacity of 344 MW in 2017 [1]. This period has
also seen consistent and ever-growing utilisation of alternative fuels (for proving
thermal energy), with the usage rates increasing five-fold going from 0.6% in 2010 toaround 3% in 2017 [1]. Overall, the industry consumed more than 1.2 million tonnesof alternative fuels in 2017, with biomass contributing to around 24% of the total
usage [1]. This has resulted in the cement industry easily meeting its electrical andthermal energy reduction targets set under the PAT scheme (cycle 1).
Although the above-mentioned achievements have resulted in significant
environmental and economic benefits, there are possibilities of further improvement
which can only be brought in by advancement in technologies, techniques and othermeasures related to the cement production process.

India’s cement production is projected to grow at a rapid pace between 2020 to 2050,
following the projected growth in GDP. This growth is seen because of increased
demand by the development and construction sector, especially for housing andinfrastructure needs. Specifically, the major growth drivers for the Indian cement
industry in the near future have been highlighted below:
I.

Government initiatives and programs: Government’s increased emphasis inproviding affordable housing through higher investments and ensuring better
credit facilities leading to the launch of Housing for All program and subsequently
the Smart Cities Mission; which are expected to provide a huge fillip to market
demand.

ii.

Infrastructure development: Increase in infrastructure investment particularly
for development of dedicated freight corridors and new/upgraded airports andports will likely drive building and construction activities.

iii. Flourishing Real estate sector: The flourishing real estate market, projected to
grow at a CAGR of 11.6% over 2011-20, is expected to reach USD $180 billion by2020 [10].

iv. Other major drivers: Other major drivers include the rising middle-class and theirpurchasing power, increasing urbanisation through both population expansion
and migration from rural areas and the rise in the number of households.
As per the NITI Aayog’s forecast, India’s cement production is expected to grow to
1,042 million tonnes by 2047, close to 300% increase from current production amount[11]. Figure 7 provides a long-term forecast for cement production in India from 20192047.

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Outlook17

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

18
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
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2035
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(million tonnes)

Cement production

Figure 7: Forecast trend in cement production in India

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

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0

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

CHAPTER

LC3: An Opportunity

219Limestone Calcined Clay Cement (LC3) has emerged as one of the potentially viable
solutions in addressing the looming environmental and resource crisis. It has beendeveloped through sustained and collaborative efforts of multiple organisations
namely EPFL (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne) Switzerland, Society forTechnology and Action for Rural Advancement (TARA) India, Centro de Investigación yDesarrollo de Estructuras y Materiales (CIDEM) Cuba, Indian Institute of Technology(IIT) Delhi and IIT Madras, with financial support from the Swiss Agency for
Development and Cooperation (SDC).
LC3 is an innovative cement variety that is composed of a blend of Portland cementclinker, low grade limestone and calcined clay. The LC3 blend works on the synergy
between clinker, calcined clay and limestone phases. Calcined clay reacts withhydration products of clinker and limestone reacts with calcined clay, giving phasesthat make the microstructure denser. Calcined clays have been long used as
pozzolanic materials in cements and limestone is an established semi-reactive filler incements. The added synergy from the reaction of calcined clays with limestone
producing carboaluminate phases improves the strength and durability of the LC3
cement. Figure 8 provides a synergy diagram for formation of LC3.

Figure 8: Synergy diagram for formation of LC3

ler
t

ec
Eff

Calcined
Clay

Fil

Po
z
Re zola
ac ni
tio c
n

Clinker

Alumino Carbonate
Reaction

Limestone

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

DenserMicrostructure

20

Strength

Durability

Constituents of LC3
As mentioned, LC3 is a type of blended cement composed of four basic ingredients
namely clinker, calcined clay, non-cement grade limestone and gypsum. Typical LC3
cements contain 40 to 65% clinker by weight, 30 to 38% calcined clay, 15 to 20%
crushed non-cement grade limestone and 3 to 7% gypsum. Figure 9 provides a breakup of the typical composition of LC3.
Normal Portland clinker, used in existing cement compositions, can be used to
produce LC3. Clinkers and OPCs from throughout the country have been successfully
tested to produce LC3 blends. Kaolinitic clay (china clay) containing 40% to 70%
kaolinite content are ideally suited to produce LC3. Kaolinitic clays and low-grade
limestone are widely available as mine residues with limited use in ceramic industries.
LC3 has the potential to utilise these abundant resources and thereby significantly
reduce the clinker factor in cement production.

The clays are calcined at 750°C to 850°C to make them reactive, markedly lower thanclinkerisation temperature of 1,400°C to 1,500°C. This difference in temperaturemeans that the calcination process requires less than half the energy compared toclinkerisation process.
LC3 can be produced in a process compatible with OPC and PPC by integrating andblending with existing manufacturing equipment. The only marginally increased
investments will be for installation of calcining equipment.

Figure 9: Typical composition of LC3

Low-gradelimestone
15%

Gypsum5%

Calcined clay
30%

Clinker50%

The mechanical performance of LC3 has proven to be quite encouraging and at parwith existing cement standards. The ultimate strengths achieved (in MPa) arecomparable to OPCs, with the strength development occurring at a rate greater thanboth OPC and PPC (when using the same clinker). Likewise, the durability of LC3 hasbeen observed to be better, or at least comparable, to both OPC and PPC. This isparticularly true under severe conditions that are prevalent in marine environments
and regions with alternate freezing and thawing cycles.
Key highlights of the LC3 technology have been provided below:•

Typical LC3 cements contain 40 to 65% clinker by weight, 30 to 38% calcined
clay, 15 to 20% crushed non-cement grade limestone and 3 to 7% gypsum•

LC3 has a clinker-to-cement ratio between 50 to 60%, considerably less than
OPC (at 90 to 95%)•

CO2 emissions lowered by up to 30%, compared to existing cements, during
the production process•

The strength and durability of LC3 is at par or greater than existing cement
varieties

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

The pilot formulations of LC3 (containing a blend of just 50% clinker with calcined clay
and low-grade limestone) derived under laboratory conditions by Indian partners
have been successfully implemented in industrial trials conducted in India.

21

Benefits of LC3

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Due to the lower clinker content, the LC3 technology offers several benefits over OPC
and fly ash based PPC, as mentioned below:

22•

More efficient resource utilisation due to reduced clinker factor and usage ofmoderate quality limestone and clays•

Lower production energy requirements and reduced fuel usage•

CO2 emissions lowered by up to 30%, compared to existing cements, during
the production process•

Similar strengths and improved durability compared to traditional cement
varieties•

Lower production cost compared to traditional cement varieties

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

CHAPTERThe Study

3

23

Objectives
Through scenario building (based on secondary research and data analysis) ascertain
whether future uptake of LC3 in India’s overall cement production mix will result in
potential net positive impacts on the environment and sustainable resource
utilisation.

Scope
This study integrates use of non-critical resource alternatives that are bothabundantly available and have a reduced environmental impact. These alternatives
can help create Low Carbon Pathways (LCPs), by offering sustainable routes forsatisying future demand for cement and its derivatives. The current study involves
building LCPs and evaluating their future environmental and resource impacts against
a Baseline Scenario, which is an extension of the business-as-usual practice. Throughthis, the study aims to determine the efficacy of the low-carbon initiative and further
provide inputs for developing effective policy and regulatory framework in the
country.
i.

The geographical scope of the study is Indiaii.

The technical scope of the study is confined to the cement production process
only, i.e. gate-to-gate considerations

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Methodology and Approach

24

Methodology
The various activities performed to evaluate options through scenario building in the
study have been outlined in the Figure 10.

Figure 10: Stepwise methodology adopted for conducting study

ACTIVITY 1
Secondary research anddata collation

ACTIVITY 2
Scenario building

Task 1: Perform a detailed secondary research of the past, present andfuture circumstances of the global and Indian cement market
Task 2: Gather and organise all relvant information/data obtained
through the above task

Task 1: Create a framework of inputs/assumptions based on relevant
data/information obtained in Activity-1
Task 2: Formulate BAU and LCP scenarios based on the above
framework

ACTIVITY 3
Perform calculations

Task 1: Carry out evluation of indicators for multiple scenarios withintroduction of LC3 in the Indian cement mix

ACTIVITY 4
Analysis andInterpretation

Task 1: Make a comparative analysis of the quantification of theindicators, between multiple scenarios

ACTIVITY 5
Gather feeback
on results

ACTIVITY 6
Prepare final resultsfor publishing

Task 2: Provide conclusions on the outcomes of the above analysis

Task 1: Collate and submit results to external project partners in a draft
project report, for inviting their suggestions and feedback

Task 1: Incorporate all suggestions feedback received and prepare final
results
Task 2: Publish final results in a project report for wide distribution

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Task 3: Identify key indicators for enabling comparison of both scenarios

25ApproachIn order to ascertain the net-positive effects due to introduction of LC3, a comparative
analysis of the environmental and resource performance has been carried out
between two distinct cement production scenarios, termed as Business As Usual(BAU) and Low-Carbon Pathway (LCP) scenarios. The period of performing theanalysis is twenty-five years, i.e. from 2022 to 2047. The LCP scenario is further
segregated into three distinct sub-scenarios namely LCP1, LCP2 and LCP3, involving
varying uptake of LC3 in the Indian cement mix. Comparing the BAU scenario with one
LCP sub-scenario constitutes a single assessment. The performance of the scenarios
will be assessed on the basis of quantification of established indicators which havebeen listed in Figure 11 below.

Figure 11: Established indicators for assessing performance

Comparative Analysis of Scenarios

Lowering of clinker
factorSavings in cement-grade
limestone usage

CO2 savings

Utilisation of non-cement
grade limestone

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Land preservation

26

Resource efficiency benefits

Indicators

Environmental impacts

Utilisation of non-ceramic
grade china clay

Two distinct cement production scenarios
Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario:
The BAU scenario is essentially an extension of the prevailing cement scenario in the
country till 2047. The trajectory of overall cement production shall follow the
projections created by NITI Aayog which envisage production of around 1,042 million
tonnes of cement by the year 2047. Characterised as a base scenario, BAU involves
continued production of the three dominant existing cement varieties in India(namely PPC, OPC, and PSC) between the period 2022-2047.
It is assumed that the Indian cement production mix will be identical to the current
scenario and remain unchanged throughout the assessment period (2022-2047).
Thus, the percentage contribution of PPC, OPC and PSC in total cement production
will stay at 67%, 25% and 8% respectively. This translates into a cumulative productionof 12,282 million tonnes of PPC, requiring nearly 3,070 million tonnes of fly ash overthe entire assessment period. Although the share of coal in India’s electricity mix will
gradually fall, it will continue to play a dominant role until 2047 [12]. This will ensuresufficient generation of fly ash in the country thereby fully catering to the expecteddemand for PPC production. Moreover, in this scenario, contributions from othercement varieties (white cement, rapid hardening cement etc.), which remains
minimal at present, will not be considered. Based on the above assumptions, this
scenario becomes unsustainable. Keeping along the pathway envisaged under this
scenario will result in a huge increase in country wide GHG emissions,overexploitation of critical natural resources (like limestone) and degradation of large
swathes of protected areas. The essential features of the BAU scenario have been
provided below:

Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario - Key Highlights•

Business As Usual (BAU) is seen as an extension of the prevailing cement
production scenario in the country, from 2022 to 2047•

BAU involves production of three main cement varieties viz. PPC, OPC and
PSC only•

Percentage contribution of PPC, OPC and PSC to cement production willremain constant over the duration of the scenario at 67%, 25% and 8%
respectively

The variety-wise cement production trend (between 2022 to 2047) for BAU has been
illustrated in Figure 12 below.

Figure 12: Cement production trend in India - BAU

1,100
1,000
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
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0

PPC production

OPC production

PSC production

Low Carbon Pathway (LCP) Scenarios:
Low Carbon Pathway (LCP) scenarios are envisaged as feasible alternatives to the BAU
scenario, over the same duration, i.e. 2022-2047. The trajectory of overall cement
production shall follow the BAU. The key differentiator between the BAU and LCP
scenarios is the introduction of LC3 along with the three main cement varieties (PPC,
OPC and PSC). The ‘overarching’ LCP scenario has been further divided into three
distinct sub-scenarios namely, LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3. Each of the three LCP scenarios

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Cement production(million tonnes)

900

27

consider uptake of LC3 production in India’s overall cement mix starting from 2022
(the zero year), to varying degrees to reach different levels of saturation. The
production of LC3 is gradually scaled up to obtain a certain percentage share by theyear 2035, which is then projected to remain constant till 2047. The extent to which
LC3penetrates the cement mix by 2035 is different for each sub-scenario, increasingfrom LCP-1 to LCP-3. The contribution of LC3 in LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3 is 15%, 33% and
50% respectively. This translates into a cumulative production of 2,384, 5,240 and
7,937 million tonnes of LC3 in LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3 respectively. Such levels of
production will accordingly require nearly 715, 1,572 and 2,381 million tonnes ofchina clay over the entire assessment period. Irrespective of the projected scenario
and based on latest data from Indian Bureau of Mines, India has sufficient reserves ofchina clay resources to fully cater to the expected demand for LC3 production.
Summaries of the essential features of each LCP sub-scenario have been provided
below:

Low Carbon Pathway-1 (LCP-1) Scenario - Key Highlights•

LC3 consumes the market share of OPC only•

Total percentage share of LC3 in overall cement mix by 2035 will be 15% andstay constant thereafter till 2047•

PPC and PSC percentage shares to be at 67% and 8% respectively, OPC to
reduce to 10% by 2035 and stay constant till 2047

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Low Carbon Pathway-2 (LCP-2) Scenario - Key Highlights

28•

LC3 consumes the market share of both OPC and PPC•

Total percentage of LC3 in overall cement mix by 2035 will be 33% and stay
constant thereafter till 2047•

PSC percentage share to be 8%, OPC to reduce to 10% by 2035 and stay
constant thereafter; balance shall be PPC

Low Carbon Pathway-3 (LCP-3) Scenario - Key Highlights•

LC3 consumes the market share of both OPC and PPC•

Total percentage of LC3 in overall cement mix by 2035 will be 50% and stay
constant thereafter till 2047•

PSC percentage share to be 8%, OPC to reduce to 10% by 2035 and stay
constant thereafter; balance shall be PPC

In the zero year, the starting percentage shares of PPC, OPC and PSC will be 67%, 25%
and 8% respectively, same as BAU scenario. However, the percentage shares for PPC
and OPC will not stay constant, which is a deviation from the BAU scenario. This is dueto the introduction of LC3 in the cement mix. For PPC, the percentage share will
decrease in LCP-2 and LCP-3 only, as in LCP-1 LC3 attains the terminal value of 15% byconsuming share of just OPC in the overall mix. Thus, OPC percentage share will
decrease in all sub-scenarios to 10% by 2035 and stay constant thereafter till 2047. Inline with BAU, PSC will have a share of 8% that will remain constant throughout theperiod. Moreover, the starting percentage share of LC3 in the overall cement mix in
India will be 1%, which will be based on the type of sub-scenario (i.e. LCP-1, LCP-2 or
LCP-3). It should be noted that LC3 production will only start from 2023 (first year),although the period of assessment starts from the zero year.
The variety-wise cement production trend for all three LCPs have been illustrated
below in Figures 13, 14 and 15.

Figure 13: Cement production trend in India – LCP1

1,200

Cement production(million tonnes)

1,000
800
600
400
200

2045

2046

2047

2046

2047

Figure 14: Cement production trend in India – LCP2

1,200

800
600
400
200

LC3 production

PPC production

OPC production

PSC production

2042

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0
2022

Cement production(million tonnes)

1,000

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

2044

2042

2041

2045

PSC production

2043

OPC production

2044

PPC production

2043

LC3 production

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2022

0

29

Figure 15: Cement production trend in India – LCP3

1,200

Cement production(million tonnes)

1,000
800
600
400
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LC 3 production

PPC production

OPC production

PSC production

2047

2046

2045

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2023

2022

0

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

The cement mix is expected to gradually evolve from the existing set-up based on theshare of each cement variety in the total production.

30

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

CHAPTER

Results

4

31

This section contains the results obtained by carrying out the study described in thepreceding section.

Summary of Results
The results of the comparative analysis of LCP sub-scenarios with BAU (between the
period 2022-2047) have been summarised in the Table 2 below.

Table 2: Summary of results obtained

Parameters

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Environmental
Impacts

32

Resource
Efficiency
Benefitsin the year 2047
(compared to BAU)

Indicators

Cumulative values(from 2022-2047)

LCP-1

LCP-2

LCP-3

LCP-1

LCP-2

LCP-3

Lowering of clinker
factor

64.4%

61.6%

59.0%

CO2 savings (million
tonnes)

50.6

65.8

80.2

777

995

1221

Land preservation(hectares)

1,160.5

1,779.5

2,364.0

17,81626,98236,010

Saving in cementgrade limestone
usage (million tonnes)

105.5

161.8

214.9

1,620

2,453

3,274

Non-cement grade
limestone utilisation(million tonnes)

23.5

51.6

78.2

361

786

1191

Non-ceramic grade
china clay utilisation(million tonnes)

46.9

103.2

156.3

720

1,572

2,381

Detailed Results
The results pertaining to each indicator have been discussed below in detail.

Environmental Impacts
The environmental performance of BAU and LCPs has been compared by quantifying
the established indicators for both scenarios. The indicators are:i.

Lowering of cinker factorii.

CO2 savings

iii. Land preservation

Lowering of clinker factor
The figure below illustrates the trend in the clinker factor in India for all the scenarios
within the assessment period, i.e. 2022 to 2047. As expected, all scenarios have thesame starting value of 0.71 as clinker factor; which evolves to attain varying values by
2047. For BAU, the clinker factor will remain constant at 0.71 throughout theassessment period. In comparison, all LCPs exhibit significant reductions in the clinker
factor by the terminal year 2047. For LCP-1, the clinker factor reduces by 10% tobecome 0.64 in 2047. For LCP-2, the clinker factor shows a larger reduction of 13%,reaching a value of 0.62 in the terminal year. The reduction of clinker factor is mostsignificant in LCP-3, amounting to 17%, resulting in a final value of 0.59. Figure 16
provides a forecast trend in the average clinker factor, year wise for all LCPs between
2022 and 2047.

Figure 16: Forecast trend in average clinker factor

0.72
0.70

Clinker factor

0.68
0.66
0.64
0.62
0.60
0.58
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046
LCP-1

LCP-2

CO2 savings
The Figure 17 below provides a comparison of the cumulative CO2 emissions
generated in each of the four scenarios within the assessment period. In BAU, thecumulative CO2 emissions are estimated to be 11,865 million tonnes till 2047. In
contrast, the cumulative CO2 emissions for LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3 will be around
11,088, 10,870 and 10,644 million tonnes respectively.

LCP-3

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

BAU

33

Figure 17: Total CO2 emissions in all scenarios

12,00010,000(million tonnes)

CO2 emissions

11,000

9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
BAU

LCP-1

LCP-2

LCP-3

34

Figure 18: Forecast trend in direct CO2 emissions intensity

0.660

Direct CO2 emissions Intesity(tCO2/t cement)

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

A comparison of the direct CO2 emissions intensity of all scenarios has also been
provided in the figure below. Not surprisingly, the graph obtained echoes the clinker
factor evolution curve displayed above. This is attributed to the reasons outlined in
Chapter-1. Moreover, as expected, all scenarios have the same starting value, of 0.65,
which evolves on the basis of projected scenarios to attain varying values by 2047. For
BAU, the direct CO2 emissions intensity stays constant at 0.65 throughout the entire
period. In comparison, all LCPs exhibit significant reduction in the emissions intensity
by the terminal year 2047. For LCP-1, the emissions intensity reduces by 5.01% tobecome 0.60 in 2047. For LCP-2, the clinker factor shows a larger reduction, 7.01%,
reaching a value of 0.58 tCO2/t cement in the terminal year. Finally, the reduction ofclinker factor is most in LCP-3, amounting to 8.34%, resulting in a final value of 0.57
tCO2/t cement. Figure 18 provides a forecast trend in the direct CO2 emissions
intensity for all LCPs between 2022 and 2047.

0.650
0.640
0.630
0.620
0.610
0.600
0.590
0.580
0.570
0.560
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046
BAU

LCP-1

LCP-2

LCP-3

The corresponding annual savings in CO2 emissions achieved by all LCP sub-scenarios(compared to BAU) have been illustrated in the figure below. The amount of CO2
savings in the starting year are 1.2 million tonnes for LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3. The
trends showcase at a CAGR of 16.2%, 17.5% and 12.8% for LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3,
with the annual CO2 savings in the terminal year estimated to be 50.6, 65.8 and 80.2
million tonnes respectively. Figure 19 provides a forecast trend in the yearly CO2
savings for all LCPs between 2022 and 2047.

Figure 19: Forecast trend in yearly CO2 savings
90
80

Yearly CO 2 savings(million tonnes)

70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046
LCP-2

LCP-3

Finally, the cumulative CO2 savings are shown below. Over the assessment period, thecumulative savings for LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3 are estimated to be 777,995 and 1,221
million tonnes respectively. Figure 20 provides the cumulative CO2 savings in all LCP
sub-scenarios.

Figure 20: Cumulative CO2 savings
1,400
1,200

CO 2 savings(million tonnes)

1,000
800
600
400
200
0
LCP-1

LCP-2

LCP-3

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

LCP-1

35

Land preservation
The LCPs result in preservation of land brought on by utilisation of non-cement grade
limestone, which, in the absence of such progressive scenarios, would have been
dumped on land adjacent to a limestone mine.
Figure 21 below provides the cumulative land preservation in all the LCP scenarios.
Over the assessment period, the cumulative preservation due to LCP-1, LCP-2 and
LCP-3 is estimated to be 178, 270 and 360 sq. km. respectively.

Figure 21: Cumulative land preservation
40,00035,000Land preservation(hectares)

30,00025,00020,00015,00010,000
5,000
0
LCP-1

LCP-2

LCP-3

Resource Efficiency Benefits

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

The resource performance of BAU and LCPs has been compared by the quantifying
the critical resource conservation and resource utilisation indicators for bothscenarios. The indicators are:36

i. Savings in cement-grade limestone usage
ii. Utilisation of non-ceramic grade china clayiii. Utilisation of non-cement grade limestone
Each indicator has been discussed individually below.
Savings in cement-grade limestone usage
In BAU, the cumulative consumption is estimated to be 23,374 million tonnes till
2047. In comparison, the cumulative consumption for LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3 will bearound 21,754, 20,921 and 20,100 million tonnes respectively. Figure 22 below
provides a comparison of the cumulative limestone consumption under all scenarios
within the assessment period.
Also, as indicated, BAU will result in consumption of 9,370 million tonnes of additional
limestone resources (or 40.1% of total consumption) which, at present, are notcommercially accessible. In this scenario, additional mining in eco-sensitive zones
would need to be undertaken to cater to 9.3 billion tonnes of cement-grade
limestone. The introduction of LC3 will require reduced exploration of additional
limestone resources. For LCP-1 scenario, additional resources mined would be 7,750
million tonnes; for LCP-2 scenario, additional resources mined would be 6,917 million
tonnes; for LCP-3 scenario, additional resources mined would be 6,096 million
tonnes. In the best-case scenario, the additional limestone resources mined would beequivalent to 30.3% of the cumulative limestone requirements envisaged till theyear 2047.

Figure 22: Cumulative limestone consumption
25,000Limestone consumption(million tonnes)

20,00015,00010,000
5,000
0
BSL-1

LCP-1
Limestone reserves

LCP-2

LCP-3

Additional limestone resources

The corresponding annual savings in limestone consumption achieved by all LCP
scenarios (compared to BAU) have been illustrated in the figure below. The amount ofsavings for the starting year are 2.46, 2.46 and 7.12 million tonnes for LCP-1, LCP-2 and
LCP-3 respectively. The annual savings in the terminal year estimated to be 105.5,
161.8 and 214.9 million tonnes respectively. Figure 23 provides a forecast trend in the
yearly limestone savings for all LCP scenarios between 2022 and 2047.

250

150
100
50
0
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047

Yearly limestone savings(million tonnes)

200

LCP-1

LCP-2

LCP-3

Over the assessment period, the cumulative limestone savings are shown below. The
cumulative savings for LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3 are estimated to be 1,620, 2,453 and3,274 million tonnes respectively in comparison to BAU scenario.
Figure 24 provides the cumulative limestone savings in all LCP scenarios.

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Figure 23: Forecast trend in yearly limestone savings

37

Figure 24: Cumulative limestone savings
3,500

Limestone savings(million tonnes)

3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
LCP-1

LCP-2

LCP-3

38

•

Need to conserve resources of cement-grade limestone•

Need to accelerate the substitution of cement-grade limestone and clinker with,for example, Kaolinitic clays•

Inevitable need for mining of additional cement-grade limestone resources; 9billion tonnes for BAU scenario compared to 6 billion tonnes for best case (LCP-3)
scenario.

Figure 25: Forecast trend in limestone reserves exhaustion
11,00010,0009,000
8,000

Limestone reserves(million tonnes)

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Finally, based on the forecast trend in consumption of limestone, a comparison
between all scenarios was performed with respect to the duration of the availabilityof limestone reserves. For BAU, at the calculated rate of limestone consumption, theknown available limestone reserves will be exhausted by late 2038. In comparison, for
LCP-1, the exhaustion is expected to happen by late 2039, while for LCP-2 and LCP-3 itis early and late 2040 respectively. Thus, the maximum possible delay in limestone
exhaustion (when comparing BAU with LCP-3) is around two years. This means thateven in the most aggressive LC3 adoption scenario, the limestone will only be madeavailable for an additional two years, i.e. till 2040 compared to 2038. Figure 25
provides a forecast trend for limestone reserves exhaustion that highlights thefollowing:

7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2022

2024

2026
BSL-1

2028

2030

2032

LCP-1

2034

2036
LCP-2

2038

2040

2042
LCP-3

2044

2046

Utilsation of non-ceramic grade china clay
The amount of such china clay utilised in the starting year is 1.09 million tones for all
LCPs. As expected, the three forecast trends also showcase CAGRs of 16.23%, 19.95%
and 21.96%, with the annual china clay utilisation in the terminal year estimated to be
46.9, 103.2 and 156.3 million tonnes for LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3 respectively. The
forecast trend in annual utilisation of non-ceramic grade china clay achieved by all LCP
scenarios have been illustrated in the Figure 26 below.

Figure 26: Forecast trend in non-ceramic grade china clay consumption

Non-ceramic china clay consumption(million tonnes)

180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046
LCP-2

LCP-3

The cumulative non-ceramic grade china clay utilisation is shown below. Over theassessment period, the cumulative utilisation in LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3 is estimatedto be 720, 1,572 and 2,381 million tonnes respectively. Irrespective of the scenario,
based on latest data from Indian Bureau of Mines, India has sufficient reserves ofchina clay to fully cater to the expected demand for LC3 production. Figure 27 provides
the cumulative non-ceramic grade china clay utilisation in all LCP scenarios.

Non-ceramic grade china clay utilisation(million tonnes)

Figure 27: Cumulative non-ceramic grade china clay utilisation

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0
LCP-1

LCP-2

LCP-3

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

LCP-1

39

Utilisation of non-cement grade limestone
The annual utilisation of non-cement grade limestone achieved by all LCP scenarios(compared to BAU) have been illustrated in the figure below. The amount of suchlimestone utilised in the starting year is 0.55 million tonnes for all LCPs. As expected,
the three forecast trends also showcase CAGRs of 16.23%, 19.95% and 21.96%, withthe annual limestone utilisation in the terminal year estimated to be 23.45, 51.58 and78.15 million tonnes for LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3 respectively.

Figure 28: Forecast trend in non-cement grade limestone consumption

Non-cement grade limestone use(million tonnes)

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046
LCP-3

Figure 29: Cumulative non-cement grade limestone utilisation

1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
LCP-1

40

LCP-2

The cumulative non-cement grade limestone utilisation is shown below. Over theassessment period, the cumulative utilisation in LCP-1, LCP-2 and LCP-3 is estimatedto be 360, 786 and 1,191 million tonnes respectively. Figure 29 provides the
cumulative non-cement grade limestone utilisation in all LCP scenarios.

Non-cement grade limestone utilisation(million tonnes)

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

LCP-1

LCP-2

LCP-3

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

CHAPTER

Conclusions

541

India’s cement production is expected to undergo a phase of rapid expansion
between 2020 with and 2050, following the projected growth in the country’s
construction sector. The country’s cement production is estimated to grow to nearly
1,050 million tonnes by 2047, close to 300% increase from current production level.
This inevitable expansion of the cement industry will lead to an increase in the carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions to unsustainable levels, reaching 674 million tonnes by 2047
(25% of the total GHG emissions of the country at present). Apart from the above
environmental implications, Business As Usual (BAU) growth will result in serious
resource issues and divergence of compliance with national and international
regulations. The current availability of cement-grade limestone is 14,000 million
tonnes. It is projected that, by 2047, BAU scenario will require sourcing of nearly 9,400
million tonnes of additional limestone resources which, at present, are notcommercially exploited and would require mining in eco-sensitive zones andinaccessible areas. Thus, it is evident that the pursuit of BAU will be unsustainablefrom both the environment and resource perspective.

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Role of LC3

42

Limestone Calcined Clay Cement (LC3) is a blend of clinker with 30% calcined clay and
15% non-cement grade limestone and presents a potentially viable solution in
addressing the looming environmental and resource crunch. LC3 utilises medium
grade Kaolinitic clays and limestone that is abundantly available in the country,
thereby significantly reducing the clinker factor in cement production. Moreover, it
contributes to 30% reduction in CO2 emissions and is energy and cost effective. Lastly,
LC3 can be produced in a process compatible with OPC and PPC by integrating andblending with existing manufacturing equipment, leading to only marginally
increased investments required for installation of calcining equipment. The
introduction of LC3 in India’s cement mix has the potential to significantly enhance theenvironmental and resource performance in the country’s cement sector. The
scenario building with LC3 cement becoming a significant constituent of the cement
mix is presented in the Low Carbon Pathways (LCPs) roadmap.

Low Carbon Pathways (LCPs) Roadmap
The study has concluded that scenarios with introduction and growing proportion of
LCPs have a better environmental and resource performance compared to BAU in all
the established indicators. LCPs lead to a lowering of clinker factor and corresponding
CO2 emissions. The IBM data shows that the non-ceramic grade china clay is widely
available in India, overlapping with existing cement plants and captive mines.
Moreover, in terms of resource performance, LCPs generate a fair amount oflimestone savings, support utilisation of non-cement grade limestone and nonceramic grade china clay.
In this study, LCP-3 scenario presents the most aggressive pathway and involves
highest penetration of LC3 in the Indian cement mix. Thus, implementing the LCP-3
scenario would provide the highest environmental and resource benefits compared
to BAU. Between 2022 and 2047, the cumulative CO2 savings that would result fromthis scenario are 1,221 million tonnes, which is 45% of India’s current GHG emissions.
It is observed that the terminal value of the clinker factor for LCP-3 scenario willapproach 0.59. This matches the target of 0.58 set up in the low carbon roadmap
envisaged for sustainable production in India by WBCSD. In setting this sustainability

target, WBCSD has considered five important levers (which does not include LC3) thatwill help attain the targeted clinker factor value namely AFR, thermal and electricalefficiency, clinker substitution, WHR, and newer technologies. Thus, adoption andintegration of LC3 in the overall cement mix alone has potential to attain the same
long-term sustainability performance which will be delivered by all of the ‘low carbon’levers combined. In terms of resource performance, LCP-3 scenario would lead to a
cumulative saving of 3,274 million tonnes of cement-grade limestone and utilisationof nearly 1,191 million tonnes of non-cement grade limestone. This cuts down the
additional limestone resources to be, hitherto, prospected by 35% compared to BAU
scenario. Lastly, it promotes utilisation of about 2,381 million tonnes of china clay;
both of which are abundantly available in the country.

Call for an Early Action

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

Continuation of the BAU scenario will lead to severe effects on the environment andnatural resources crunch by 2038. It is projected that in the ensuing decade till 2047,
BAU scenario will require nearly 9,400 million tonnes of additional limestone
resources which, at present, are not commercially accessible and would require
mining in eco-sensitive zones. In the aggressive LCP-3 scenario, the introduction of LC3
extends the utilisation of available limestone resources by three years. It further
curtails the additional mined limestone resources to 6,100 million tonnes. This
impending reality necessitates an early action which will involve an accelerated
uptake of LC3in India’s cement mix in order to ensure sustainable growth in the
country.

43

44

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

BIBLIOGRAPHY[1] World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) (2018) Low
Carbon Technology Roadmap for the Indian Cement Sector: Status Review 2018, :World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD).
[2] Andrew, Robbie M. (2018) 'Global CO2 emissions from cement production', Earth
System Science Data, 10(1), pp. 195-217[3] International Energy Agency (2019) Cement - Tracking Industry - Analysis,
Available at: https://www.iea.org/reports/tracking-industry-2019/cement(Accessed: 31st September 2019).
[4] Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change (Government of India)(2018) Second Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change, : Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate
Change (Government of India).
[5] Indian Bureau of Mines, Ministry of Mines (Government of India) (2019) IndianMinerals Yearbook 2018 (Part III: Mineral Reviews) - Limestone and othercalcareous materials, Nagpur: Indian Bureau of Mines, Ministry of Mines(Government of India).
[6] Economic and Statistics division, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas(Government of India) (2018) Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas Statistics (201718), New Delhi: Economic and Statistics division, Ministry of Petroleum andNatural Gas.

[8] Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE), Ministry of Power (Government of India)(2019) Improving Energy Efficiency in Cement Sector (Achievements and Way
Forward), New Delhi: Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE), Ministry of Power,
Government of India.
[9] Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) (2013) Technology Compendium On Energy
Saving Opportunities - Cement Sector , New Delhi: Confederation of Indian
Industry (CII).
[10] Bijay Agarwal (2020) Investment in Indian real estate market to increase in 2020,
Available at: https://www.99acres.com/articles/investment-in-indian-realestate-market-to-increase-in-2020.html (Accessed: 31stSeptember 2019).
[11] NITI Aayog (2015) User Guide for India's 2047 Energy Calculator - Industry, New
Delhi: NITI Aayog.
[12] SudarshanVaradhan (2017) Coal to be India's energy mainstay for next 30 years NITI Aayog report, Available at: https://in.reuters.com/article/india-coalenergy/coal-to-be-indias-energy-mainstay-for-next-30-years-niti-aayog-reportidINKCN18B1XE (Accessed: 31stSeptember 2019).

Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix[7] Central Statistics Office (Government of India) (2019) Energy Statistics (2019),
New Delhi, India: Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

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Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

ABOUT TARATARA incubates ecologically efficient and economically viable solutions to meet basic
needs, which addresses environmental challenges, with emphasis on clean technology.
The major focus is on reducing environmental emissions and supporting resource
efficient consumption and production systems. Technologies are developed incollaborative partnership with various national and international researchorganisations and institutes. These innovations are tested at laboratory, pilot andcommercial scale to establish their viability and transform them into scalable businessmodels ready to be adapted areas entrepreneurs and enterprises. Technologies process
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Environmental and Resource Assessment for Uptake of LC3 in India’s Cement Mix

The Society for Technology & Action for Rural Advancement (TARA) is a social enterprise
set up in the year 1985 at New Delhi, India. It is an "incubation engine" of theDevelopment Alternatives Group which has been providing development solutions inIndia and elsewhere. The mission is Mission is to build capacity, incubate businessmodels and manage processes to create economic, social and environmental value on alarge scale. TARA as an “enabler”, is instrumental in the creation of livelihood support
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