UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium
Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Metro Manila, the Philippines

GEOHAZARD RISK ASSESSMENTIN A TECTONICALLY ACTIVE REGION IN MALAYSIA
Khamarrul Azahari Razak 1,2
1UTM RAZAK School of Engineering and Advanced Technology,

2Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Center,Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Kuala Lumpur@ khamarrul.kl@utm.my1

CONTENTS

2015 Sabah Earthquake

BEFOREAFTER

1. Current Issues & Challenges

2. Sabah Earthquake in June 2015
3. Cascading hazards
4. Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment
5. Future works and collaboration

2@ khamarrul.kl@utm.myUNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium
Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster ManagementrdThe 3 Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

A complex geological hazard and risk assessment

Sg. Mersilau, Kundasang Sabah> requires a multi-hazard approach, as different types of disaster may occur,
each with different characteristics and causal factors, and with different
spatial, temporal and size probabilities.

RISK is a multi-disciplinary SPATIAL problem
3@ khamarrul.kl@utm.myUNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

RISK ASSESSMENT:CHALLENGES

4@ khamarrul.kl@utm.mySabah, Malaysia
Mosti (2009)

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines(after Hall et al, 2008)

Geological characteristics – Sabah, Malaysia

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

SEISMICACTIVITIES(1976 – 2015)

Earthquake I Sabah I 05 June 2015

Berita Harian 17 June 2015

AFTERMw 6.0 Sabah Earthquake

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Sabah_earthquake

BEFOREEARTHQUAKE AND AFTERSHOCKSUNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

Low’s Peak
Crocker fault trend

Burton-Johnson (2013)

Lobu Lobu

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

QUANTITATIVE RISK ASSESSMENTIn which P(T│HS) = the temporal probability of a certain hazard scenario (HS);
P(S│HS) = the spatial probability that a particular pixel in the susceptible
areas is affected given a certain hazard scenario; A(ER│HS) = the quantification of the amount of exposed elements at risk,given a certain hazard scenario (e.g. expressed as the number oreconomic values); and V(ER│HS) = the vulnerability of elements at risk given the hazard intensity
under the specific hazard scenario
12@ khamarrul.kl@utm.myUNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

Source: Prof Cees van Westen (UNU-DGM, ITC-UT Netherlands)

Landslides: Issues and Problems

13@ khamarrul.kl@utm.myUNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

National Initiative - Landslide Hazard and Risk Mapping Project - 2014-2016101298356Razak et al. (2015)

74

1. Airborne LIDAR; 2. Terrestrial LIDAR, 3. GPS Survey, 4. Mobile GIS Field Mapping, 5. Data Processing, 6. LIDAR-Landslide Processing,
12/6/2017 14
7. Landslide Inventory Mapping, 8. Landslide susceptibility Analysis, 9. Landslide Hazard Assessment, 10. Landslide Risk Assessment

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the PhilippinesHöfle & Rutzinger (2011)

Topographic Laser Scanning System (LiDAR), most advanced geospatial tech to
mapping, characterizing, and assessing landslide processes
High density airborne LIDAR
is a powerful tool for
mapping, monitoring &modelling of the disasterprone area

New capabilityof modern
LiDAR system
for recording
full-waveform
spatial data
Razak et al (2014)

Courtesy of BUMITOUCHplmc

Corominas et al. (2013)

A: Input data
B: Susceptibility assessment
C: Hazard assessment
D: Exposure analysis
E: Vulnerability assessment
F: Risk assessment
G: Quantitative risk
•Economic risk
•Direct•Indirect•Population risk
•Societal risk
•Individual risk
H: Qualitative risk
I: Risk reduction measures

16@ khamarrul.kl@utm.myUNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium

7 April 2015

The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention Int. Research

16 November 2017 @ Manila, the Philippines

STUDY AREA @ KUNDASANG, SABAH

20 July 201517

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

Sediment-based disaster– damage to infrastructures (houses, bridges, schools, hotels, etc.), hot-springs, waterdrainage pipe (supply disruption) and ecological- (aquatic habitat) & socio-economic impact)@ Kundasang, Sabah (June 2015)

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines“…Notable here is the amount of timber in the river – to me thissuggests that there must have been quite extensive landslides inthe forested areas on the lower slopes of the mountain. I havenot seen detailed reports or images of these landslides.”19@ khamarrul.kl@utm.myUNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY AND HAZARD
Indicating Likeliness and Severity of Landslide

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

Landslide Susceptibility Map

ELEMENTS
AT RISKFOR MULTIHAZARD AND
DISASTERRISKVan Westen et al. (2015)

ISL 2004

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

Landslide Risk Map

Risk is technically computed based on three contributing factors known as:1) the probability of a landslide occuring at a given magnitude (Hazard); 2) the exposure level; and3) the expected degree of loss resulting from the specified landslide magnitude (Vulnerability).

Challenges: Historical inventory and archived data to analyze triggering factors (rainfall &seismic), understand vulnerability variation and scientifically analyze a possible risk

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

TOWARDS A RESILIENT COMMUNITYSTAKEHOLDERS, COMMUNITY AND CAPACITY BUILDING

Scheme of the run-out methods type
and their computation dimensions.. utilizing modern geospatial data andothers in characterizing and generating
data input for run-out assessment?

Regional scale empirical runout model
Based on travel angles

Quan Luna et al (2012)

25@ khamarrul.kl@utm.myUNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

Framework for Sediment Disaster Management

Where (spatial)?
Mapping
potential debris
flow torrents

Analyzing regional
susceptibility zones
for debris flow

When?
(Monitoring & Prediction)
Disaster analysis

What & How (vulnerability)?

Early warning
systemInventory of possible affected
zones/community & Elements-at-risk

Rainfall based
model

Where (temporal) & What (risk level)?
Assessing debris flow hazard & riskEngineering

Landuse restriction

Residential Relocation

Evacuation**

Rainfall >Threshold

Warning
Evacuation

Disaster Info.
(database development
Updating & dissemination)
26@ khamarrul.kl@utm.myUTM RAZAK School of Engineering and Advanced Technology

Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Center, MJIIT
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Kuala Lumpur

An Integrated Research Framework“Disaster Resilience Model”

R = f (D,A,T)
Where
R: Resilience; D: Damage = f (H,E,V); A: Human Activities; T: Time

where D = f (H,E,V)

R = f (H,E,V,A,T)
Prevention

Recovery27

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

Future work and collaboration

Quantifying geomorphological & fluvial processes and activities
Mountain geohazards, sediment-related disaster & flood risk
Regional seismotectonic activity and climate risk assessment

UNESCO-JASTIP Joint Symposium Intra-Regional Water Security and Disaster Management
The 3rd Symposium on JASTIP Disaster Prevention International Cooperation Research
16 November 2017 @ Seda Hotel Vertis North, Quezon City, Manila, the Philippines

Multihazard and disaster risk assessment (space technologybased; community-based); Monitoring & Early warning system

Mainstreaming DRR into the future development planning
Transdisciplinary approach for building resilient city and society

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Khamarrul Azahari Razak, PhD
UTM RAZAK School of Engineering and Advanced Technology
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
54100 Jalan Sultan Yahya Petra
Kuala Lumpur
Tel: +6019-3649495
Email: khamarrul.kl@utm.my; khamarrul@gmail.com
Web: http://www.razakschool.utm.my/khamarrul
Visiting address:Room no. 32, Level 6,
Malaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology (MJIIT)
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia
Jalan Sultan Yahya Petra, Kuala Lumpur

Disaster Preparedness and Prevention CenterMalaysia-Japan International Institute of Technology
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Kuala Lumpur
Geospatial Intelligence Research Initiative
Cascading GeoHazards Research Initiative
UTM RAZAK School of Engineering and Advanced Technology
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Kuala Lumpur
54100 Jalan Sultan Yahya Petra, Kuala Lumpur
30

MASTER OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT (MDRM)
MDRM @ MJIIT UTM KL is the first Master’s degree in disaster risk management in Malaysia
that is taught by both Japanese and Malaysian DRM experts.

Facilitating Disaster Risk Reduction in Asia through Training –Research –Field Practice

Certified Professional Training
Supported by:@ http://mjiit.utm.my/mdrm/
31@ khamarrul.kl@utm.myhttp://mjiit.utm.my/dppc/

32@ khamarrul.kl@utm.my