ISSN 2056-6735 (Online)

Afghanistan—a view of the resource landscape
Trump, trade & commodities
Metallic hydrogen—really?

Image Credit: Shutterstock—Afghanistan

The magazine of the Minor Metals Trade Association

2nd Edition 2017/February www.mmta.co.uk 1

THE MMTA’S INTERNATIONAL MINOR METALS CONFERENCE 2017
TAKING PLACE AT THE CONRAD HOTEL, DUBLIN, IRELAND, 24-26 APRIL 2017
Organised by Metal Events Ltd

Over 220 delegates already registered
Look who attends the MMTA conference? (2016)
Again for 2017, we’re anticipating 250+ delegates attending the premier event in the minor metals calendar. The programme is, as
always, the highlight of the event, and there’s plenty of opportunity to catch up with contacts new and old!

There are still excellent rates to be had:
The enhanced MMTA Member rate is only £900 (+ VAT where applicable) for all registrations received by 13th March 2107
The current fee for Non-Members is £1150 (+ VAT where applicable) for all registrations received by 13th March 2017
To register, please visit www.metalevents.com or www.mmta.co.uk/event/mmta_conference_2017 or email sales@metalevents.com

MMTA Conference Golf Tournament, hosted by
ICD Alloys & Metals LLC
For our first golf tournament, taking place on Monday 24th April before the start of the conference, we will beat the prestigious K Club, previous venue of the Ryder Cup.
The tournament fee of EUR150 (+ VAT where applicable) will include transport by coach from and back to theconference hotel, breakfast on arrival, 18 holes of golf, electric buggy, and lunch
Registered conference delegates wishing to join this event, should contact admin@mmta.co.uk

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2

NEW MMTA MEMBER COMPANIESThe Tantalum-Niobium International Study Center (T.I.C.) was established in 1973 to support,
develop and promote the global tantalum and niobium industries. Today the T.I.C. has around
90 member companies from 25 countries involved with all aspects of the tantalum andniobium industry supply chain, including mining, processing, recycling, metal fabrication,
capacitor manufacturing, and medical applications. Central to the T.I.C.’s mission is to increaseawareness and promote the remarkable properties of tantalum and niobium in all theirforms, disseminate relevant information to stakeholders, and address the challenges facing
its members.
Contact: Roland Chavasse

Email: Director@tanb.org

INSIDE THIS ISSUE
New Member Companies

3

MMTA News in Brief

4

Trump, Trade & Commodities

6

Warehouse Inspections—it’s all inthe detail

10

Update: Implementation of theEuropean Union Customs Code12

Have Scientists Finally Been Able
to Make Metallic Hydrogen?

13

Letter from North America—With
a view of Afghanistan’s resource

14

landscapeWebsite: http://www.TaNb.org

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Disclaimer: The information and data contained inthis edition of the Crucible (the Material) has been
compiled by the Minor Metals Trade Association (MMTA)
from sources believed to be reliable at the time of writing
but the MMTA makes no representation or warranty(express or implied) as to the accuracy, timeliness orcompleteness of the Material. The Material is provided for
information purposes only, but is not to be relied upon as
authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of thereader’s own skill and judgment. It should not be relied
upon for any specific or general application without firstobtaining competent advice. The MMTA, its members, staff
and consultants accept no liability whatsoever (howeverthat liability arises) for any direct, indirect or consequential
loss arising from any use of the Material.
The Crucible contains links to third party websites andmaterial and information created and maintained byorganisations other than the MMTA. These links areprovided solely for your convenience. The MMTA does notguarantee the accuracy, relevance, timeliness, orcompleteness of any third party information or material
accessed by means of a link within the Crucible. The
inclusion of a link is not intended to reflect the importanceof the third party materials accessed through it, nor is it
intended to endorse any views expressed, accuracy ofmaterial, products or services offered or other information
made available via the link.

3

MMTA NEWS IN BRIEF
Welcome back, Tamara, and farewell, James.

欢迎Tamara回来，告别James
MMTA欢迎Tamara Alliot休完产假回来。感谢James Walsh
在过去七个月对MMTA所作的宝贵贡献，祝愿他在未来的事业中一切顺利。

Tamara Alliot has now returned from maternity leave, and we’re支持环保，实现无纸化
delighted to have her back. We’d like to thank James Walsh for his
valuable contribution over the past seven months, and wish him all thevery best in his next venture.
作为我们对可持续发展承诺的一部分，MMTA希望为您
提供接受电子版Crucible的选择。如果您希望从3月份开
Do you want to go paperless?
始接收pdf版本的Crucible，请发送电子邮件至fan@mmta.co.uk。
As part of our commitment to sustainability, we would like to give you
the opportunity to receive a digital, rather than physical, copy of the
MMTA的电子邮件是否经常被传送到你的垃圾Crucible. If you would prefer to receive a pdf version from March邮件中？
onwards, please e-mail gina@mmta.co.uk.

Are MMTA emails ending up in your spam folder?
Please add Gina Evangelidis to your address book—gina@mmta.co.uk.

The MMTA now has a Chinese language WeChat group.
If you would like to join, to receive MMTA information in Chinese
language, contact Fan Li—fan@mmta.co.uk or scan this QR code.
And finally, we will soon be contacting all members to review theirentry for the Members’ Directory in the Annual Review Conference
Brochure—thank you for your help in making sure we have yourdetails correct.
Yours sincerely,请将Fan Li添加到你的邮件收件人中
fan@mmta.co.uk。

MMTA的中文微信群
MMTA组建了一个针对中国客户的中文
微信群，如果你想以中文接收关于MMTA的信息和其他
金属活动，金属行情和资讯，请联系Fan Lifan@mmta.co.uk或扫描此二维码添加Fan的微信。
我们将很快与所有会员联系，在年度会议审核手册中审
核他们的会员名录详情，在此感谢您对确保MMTA会员
信息更新工作的支持

此致。

Maria Cox, General Manager MMTAMaria Cox 国际小金属贸易协会总经理

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MMTA Inauguration-Eve Outlook on
Trump, Trade & Commodities
by Mu Li, CPM GroupOn the eve of the new President’s inauguration, 50 MMTA members and friends met for this year’s sell-out New York Dinner, to kick off the
New Year. Increased optimism was definitely in evidence from many, both in terms of the first couple of weeks’ business, and also in
anticipation of the new Administration.
Following an animated networking reception, CPM’s Mu Li offered an outlook on planned policy shifts that are expected to affectcommodity markets, and what these shifts could mean for both the global economy and for commodities.
How we arrived at this point
It is clear that there is dissatisfaction globally regarding political and economic conditions, and increasing income disparity and anemic
growth following the Great Recession have only intensified this dissatisfaction. Recovery from the recession has been one of the slowest in
history; uncoordinated monetary and fiscal stimulus around the world have resulted in rolling recessions across the developed economies,
which eventually poured into the growth of developing economies, depressing growth over the past few years. Problems began in thedeveloped economies, and while the larger developing economies were able to shelter themselves from the problems initially, the ongoing
weakness of developed economies finally began to have a negative effect on developing economies as well. In developed economies,
cautious use of debt by consumers and lackluster wage growth are all factors that weighed on economic growth. These factors have led toincreasing frustration and anger, resulting in votes for change in both the UK (Brexit) and US (Trump). In CPM’s opinion however, this anger
and frustration are misplaced, with structural changes in developing economies, such as aging populations with different consumption
patterns, and the increased use of computers to replace low skilled labor, being important factors that have been underestimated.
Globalisation, they believe, has helped raise large swathes of the global population into the middle class.

“In industrialized economies structural changes and aging populations suggest relatively slower growth is the norm to
be expected. Capital constraints in emerging economies resulting from capital flows out of these countries into Western
financial markets are likely to intensify going forward.”

Surplus labor will be a major global problem now and going forward
The U.S manufactures 60% more today than it did in the late 1980s, but uses 30% fewer workers. There are genuine fears that the next
wave of technological innovation will be even more devastating to jobs, replacing computer-assisted manufacturing with fully
computerized manufacturing; this transition has already begun.

6Monetary policy, fiscal policy, government deficits and debt

Global monetary policy has prevented the world from slipping into a depression. However, low, even negative, rates are squeezing
risk premiums and hindering lending. There is evidence that savings are rising to offset low rates. This has resulted in inflation of risk
assets strengthening the US dollar and creating capital constraints in developing economies.
Fiscal policy needs to work in conjunction with monetary policy, but a lack of coordination within government and between governments
has prevented this. Growing government deficits, due to rising healthcare and pension costs, have increased government debt. In turn,growing government debt has weighed on productive investments and wage growth.
Global growth forecast to remain lackluster“Sub-par global economic growth, characterized by high unemployment, low inflation and interest rates. Advanced
economies’ growth weighed down by structural changes, surplus labor, and ageing populations. Developing economies
are likely to face capital constraints, as they are also weighed down by slower growth from advanced economies.”

1980-2000

2000-20072010-2015% Chg.

2016-2026

3.3%

4.5%

3.7%

-18%

3.3%

World

Source: CPM GroupCampaign policies relevant to commodity markets
CPM identify several key campaign policies that, if implemented, will have an impact on commodity markets, including—in the area oftrade—the imposition of tariffs, the renegotiation of NAFTA, a reevaluation of the EU/Britain US relationship, and rejection of theTrans-Pacific Partnership, from which the new President has already removed the U.S. The new Administration has also advocated afiscal stimulus, as well as a curb on both illegal immigration and legal immigration for temporary, low skilled workers. The Trump
Administration has also signalled a change in direction on both climate change and energy policy.
Indeed, since taking office, the White House has placed a temporary ban on new rule-making by federal agencies, after which theremoval of two current regulatory rules will be required to be removed for any new rule implemented. The Administration has alreadystarted its efforts to roll back and repeal Dodd Frank legislation, which include its non-conflict materials regulations, although it is not yet
clear how soon, or how much of the legislation gets changed, and to what extent the non-conflict materials regulations will shape up.
Ability to implement
Following the Inauguration, President Trump did not waste any time getting started on his mission, however CPM predicts that some of
the tough actions on trade, infrastructure, immigration and climate change will face hurdles in Congress, regulatory agencies and in the7

courts. Differences in policy approach between the President and his cabinet picks will also need to be resolved.
What do these policies mean for the world economy?
CPM anticipates that trade restrictions in the form of tariffs, the break up of existing trade pacts, and abstaining from making new pacts
are likely to weigh on global economic growth. They point to a strong correlation between trade, GDP, and employment. Global Tradeaccounted for around 58% of Global GDP in 2015. CPM sees the impact of trade restrictions on both domestic and global growth being anegative one.
Across-the-board tariffs are, they predict, in practice impossible. There exists the danger that import tariffs will hurt U.S. manufacturers,
who draw from global supply chains. CPM also warns that in the event of trade restrictions being implemented, there may be a risk toimports of critical raw materials. If, however, barriers for U.S. exports to overseas markets are brought down, this could support growth.
Fiscal Stimulus
A fiscal stimulus has been promised by President Trump, to come in the form of tax cuts—particularly on higher earners andcorporations—and infrastructure spending. There is unlikely to be great resistance from Congress to tax cuts, CPM believes, and fears,
that much of the additional money will not be invested in U.S. business and jobs, but would instead end up being invested in the stock
market, corporate stock buy-backs, higher yielding speculative bonds, Treasuries, and offshore holdings, which are estimated at around$21 trillion. In their view, the impact of tax cuts would be inflation of risk assets and a stronger dollar.
With regard to infrastructure spending, while a promising prospect for stronger growth, plans for how to finance the spending are yet to
be announced. CPM warns that if infrastructure spending is pursued with deficit financing, it will further add to U.S. debt, which would
meet opposition in Congress. On the other hand, private capital investments into infrastructure projects could be made possible byremoving policy bottlenecks or offering tax incentives.
The Growth of Federal Debt
CPM’s assessment is that with governments continuing to crowd consumers, small businesses, and banks out of the credit market, thecurrent misallocation of credit to less productive applications retards general economic growth, which in turn leads to a further extensionof the era of low interest rates. At some point this should revert to more typical interest rate market patterns, but the reversion could bemany years away. When it occurs, it could bring with it increased economic volatility, unless central banks and finance ministers are far
more adept and agile in managing the transition than seems likely at present.

Source: CPM

Immigration, climate change and energy
Immigration has been a major focal point of several recent campaigns. In the US, President Trump has already increased deportation ofillegal immigrants, and is working on reducing or eliminating temporary/seasonal agricultural work visas. And indeed, one of his first acts8

as President was to implement a travel ban on those entering thecountry from several countries. He is also implementing arequirement that all jobs at all skill levels in the U.S. be offered to
U.S. citizens or permanent legal residents before being given to aforeign worker. Outside of the U.S., the Brexit vote was largely
predicated on a desire to control immigration into the UK, not tomention the impact this issue is likely to have in elections acrossEurope later in the year.
The impact of cuts to low skilled and seasonal immigration in the
U.S. is, in the view of CPM, initially expected to drive up the cost oflabor, In the longer term, however, these cuts will arguably
encourage and accelerate the use of machines and computers,
where possible, to replace those lower skilled jobs, so notnecessarily resulting in job creation.

change agreements are likely to proceed with or without the U.S.;
and thirdly, demand will be driven by global GDP, which is expected
to be lackluster.
Base and Specialty Metals
The supply of base and specialty metals is likely to be vulnerable toshort-term production cuts and long-term restrictions in capacity.
It is likely, in CPM’s opinion, to be market factors, as opposed to
trade restrictions, which will limit supplies. They point to the factthat a number of metals (Pb, Zn, and some specialty metals) haverelatively thin stock buffers.

On the demand side, technical innovations will be a factor; the substitution of specialty metals can happen over time, particularly athigher price levels. New applications, including in batteries, solar
power generation, LCD etc will see the growth of certain specialty
On the environment, there are plans to cancel the U.S. commitment
metals. Additionally, upgrades in residential consumptions ofto the Paris Agreement and U.S. Climate Change Fund, as well as lift
specialty steels in developing economies may drive demand higher
restrictions on U.S. energy production.
over the next decade.
CPM’s conclusion is that these policies, if fully implemented, are
Recovery of the oil & gas sector, and capital spending on related
likely to have a temporary positive impact, but over the longer term
infrastructure are also highlighted as being key to near-term
are expected to have a neutral to negative impact on both U.S. as
growth.
well as global GDP. It should be noted that the impacts stated above
The MMTA warmly thanks Mu Li and CPM for taking the time toare based on the potential to deliver on campaign promises.
share its outlook with MMTA members. It would not be an
In reality, as previously mentioned, most of these campaign
exaggeration to say that there was an animated response from thepromises will face significant hurdles at various levels before
room from attendees with a more positive view of future
becoming law.
developments under President Trump, and the key appears to be
What These Policies Mean for the Commodities Markets
the balance between campaign rhetoric and the laws ultimately
enacted following the scrutiny of government and the courts,
The U.S. dollar is expected to remain firm and possibly rise in the
future, with increased demand for dollars in response to a U.S. fiscal not to mention the impact of both international and domestic
stimulus. The currency is supported by Federal policy, in contrast to public pressure.
other major central banks’ loose monetary policies. In addition tostrength in the dollar, for the above-mentioned reasons, key
exporters to the U.S. may potentially need to devalue theircurrencies to overcome U.S. import tariffs, if these are indeed
introduced. Figures suggested include 45% on imports from China;
35% on imports from Mexico; and 20% on all imported goods.
On the other hand, a stronger dollar will make exports from the
U.S. relatively uncompetitive, opening opportunities for otherexporting countries.
Energy Commodities
On the supply side, CPM predicts that supply of energy commodities
is likely to increase as America works on removing production
restrictions presently in place. This domestic increase is likely to bematched by other countries, who are unlikely to reduce supply in
any meaningful way for fear of losing market share, not to mention
the fact that fuel is often the largest revenue generator for some ofthese countries.
CPM points to three factors impacting demand: firstly, technicalinnovations aimed at reducing per unit energy usage and shifting
the source of required energy to electricity indicate a move awayfrom oil and coal and towards renewables; secondly, climate

CPM Group (www.cpmgroup.com) has pioneered fundamental andeconometric research in commodities with a focus on specialty
metals. CPM Group’s research program was started in the 1970s,
based on the view that metals and other commodities markets werehighly asymmetrical, poorly reported and understood by manymarket participants, and often clouded by misinformation and false
assumptions about the nature of these markets. CPM Group
uses micro-economic analysis of the individual components of eachcommodity market, wedded with a top-down macro-economic
analysis of the global trends affecting these markets.
Mu Li is CPM Group's Director of Base and Specialty Metals
Research & Senior Precious Metals Analyst. Ms. Li has researched
extensively on markets and industries of base, specialty, andprecious metals, focusing on supply and demand fundamentals,
policy developments, as well as investment-related issues related tothese sectors. She manages CPM Group’s research projects related
to base and specialty metals, and regularly contributes analysis oncommodity markets and industries, the financial markets, andeconomic conditions. Ms. Li was previously a reporter at Platts, adivision of McGraw Hill Financial, where she covered businesses andregulations in the energy and metals sectors, and has been a WhiteHouse Correspondents Association scholar.
9Warehouse inspections—it’s all in the detail
By Ton Schox, Cunningham Lindsey Marine
Cunningham Lindsey Marine independently inspects the approved
warehouse locations on application for the MMTA approval and every
two years after that (https://www.mmta.co.uk/warehouseregistration/). The inspections are coordinated through theRotterdam office on agreed upon fee rates and reporting templates.
Typical warehouse risks
A marine surveyor travels all around the world and comes across
many situations. When comparing these situations to the conditionsof the warehouses in Europe, they can quite often be different! The
Warehouse committee asked me to share some of our findings as
observed during our surveys. A non metal-related example not
involving an MMTA member has been taken.
On one occasion I was asked to conduct an investigation into
numerous containerized shipments of bags of tea. These containers
showed a considerable short weight upon unloading at the various
The sealing process emitted heat and no firefighting equipment was
final destinations. As the common factors all pointed in one direction,
present on site.
my investigations led me to the country of origin, Kenya, and inparticular to a couple of warehouses in Mombasa.
One of the investigations was to look at the logistic process of thevarious warehouses.
As a surveyor you are always have a kind of sixth sense for special
circumstances. I noted during the inspections that in general thewarehouses were in a good condition, well-constructed andproperly roofed. I was shown one of the warehouses, which at one
side was quite full with palletized bags of tea, stacked two pallets
high. The tea was packed either in multiple paper or jute bags, as
illustrated below..

Just to kill some time, I went to one of the other warehouses andafter walking around I noticed some irregularities.
Empty pallets and a lot of other debris were stacked against theoutside of the warehouse wall surrounding an inoperable hose.
What would happen in a case of fire?
Inside, the warehouses were quite full with palletized bags of
Kenyan tea.

In one of the other corners of the shed, vacuum packing of the tea
was in full progress by means of sealing the bags. Packing material
was stacked nearby!
10

Unfortunately these pallets were obstructing any firefighting
equipment present in the shed. No safe corridors had been made.
We rolled out one of the hoses to see if any water would come out,
however this was not the case as the system was not connected tothe public water system.

The fire extinguishers
present were either
over date or
incomplete.

The cameras recorded typical warehouse activities including theloading operations of the containers. In this case, the shortages
were noted at final destination after shipping and transport to finaldestination.

We discussed theseshortcomings with thewarehouse manager.
It must be said thatthe building itself wasin a good condition
and the inside was
kept clean. The
maintenance of thefirefighting equipment
was carried out by athird party and thewarehouse manager
did not realize in whatstate the equipment
And the shortages?
was. Also the lack ofwater took her by
Later we discovered that the
surprise.
shortages, as ascertained at finaldestination, had occurred during
the stay of the containers at theMambas terminal.

By the time the containers
were opened up and theshortages ascertained, therecording from the loading
operations had already been
automatically deleted.
On paper these warehouses
were considered to be a “good”
risk, however in practice thiswas not the case. A ‘quick scan”
is quite often sufficient toimprove the risk.

After our visit the warehouse manager immediately started tochange things, and the photos below show a completely changed
warehouse with all the equipment in good working condition.

About Cunningham Lindsey
Cunningham Lindsey is a global loss adjusting, claims, management and risk
solutions firm with a 100 year track record. We’ve worked on daily basiswith people who find themselves in highly stressful situations. We are oneof the largest loss adjusting and claim management companies in theworld. With over 6,000 skilled staff in over 600 global offices we aim to be
first on the scene, putting together specialist response teams whencatastrophes happen. Right people, Right Place, Right Time!
The Specialist Practice Group Marine is the specialist entity within
Cunningham Lindsey with considerable experience in providing
independent, client focused services to the Marine industry. The dedicatedstaff of surveyors and adjusters covers all aspects of transportation risks.

Ton Schox
Head Marine Continental Europe
Marine Specialist Practice Group Leader
T +31 88 286 64 00
M +31 6 5125 7887

In connection with the investigations, we also discussed thepresence of the surveillance cameras. Sufficient cameras werein place and they were all found to be working.

E Tschox@cl-marine.com

11

Update: Implementation of theEuropean Union Customs Code (UCC)
The European Commission and industry representatives areagreeing amendments to the legislation and the guidance.
In addition, the European Commission is launching new initiatives
to further modernize customs in the EU.

will allow exporters to self-certify origin for GSP withstatements of origin. This system will replace the “Form A”
certificate of origin. The system will be phased in from2017-2019 for different sets of countries. The 2017 set includes
India, Kenya, Bhutan, Comoros, Laos, Nepal, and a number ofother countries.
·

Key Points:···

Importers acting in good faith: Industry representatives areconcerned that importers bear more risk under the UCC thanunder the previous customs code. If an importer imports
goods with lower duties under a preferential arrangement, but
it turns out later that the goods did not in fact have thepreferential status to qualify for the lower duties, importers
could plead “good faith” to reduce their liability under Article
220(2)(b) of the previous customs code, a provision notavailable within the UCC. Industry representatives argue that
this puts too much risk on importers. So far, the European
Commission has avoided amending the legislation. Instead,the European Commission suggests that there should befewer cases of goods being imported incorrectly withpreferential status under the UCC, because the exporting
country’s government is involved in registering exporters
under preferential arrangements.
Guarantees by Authorized Economic Operators (“AEOs”):
The UCC allows AEOs to post lower guarantees, but industry
representatives are concerned that this provision is notworking well. Industry representatives have argued that
Article 84 of the UCC Delegated Act should be amended.
The European Commission has indicated that it will aim toresolve this by the end of 2017, and will also publish guidanceon guarantees.
New system for the Generalized System of Preferences(“GSP”): The EU launched a new system for GSP origin
certification in January 2017. The system, called “REX”,

Definition of “exporter”: After long discussions between theEuropean Commission and industry representatives, theEuropean Commission has finally agreed to amend thedefinition of “exporter” in the UCC. Industry representatives
have been concerned that the current definition in the UCC
causes problems for transporters that do not own the goods
that they are transporting.

Forward-looking initiatives·

Further modernization and integration of customs: The
European Commission has issued a paper on “Developing the
EU Customs Union and its governance”, which sets out a vision
for EU customs with greater digitalization, better coordination
between Member States, and integrated border management.

·

Excise and customs: The European Commission has
launched a Project Group on excise and customs cooperation,
as the legislation on excise and customs matters have notbeen well coordinated so far.

·

VAT and customs for small consignments: The European
Commission has also launched a Project Group on Low Value
Consignments, with a focus on facilitating VAT and customs
issues for postal and courier services.

Regarding the Wortmann case, the European Commission has
indicated that the court’s decision was very clear – Member States
must pay interest on repayments of duties levied in contraventionof EU law, and the interest must be charged from the time of
payment of the duties. There is currently no plan to amend the
UCC in light of this case, since the court hadn’t relied on the text of
the UCC, and so it was not clear whether there are any implications
for the UCC.

THE Cobalt Conference

Mövenpick Hotel Mansour Eddahbi, Marrakech, Morocco •17/18 May 2017
The Cobalt Development Institute will hold its 24th annual Cobalt Conference in Marrakech, Morocco in May 2017. Our conference isdesigned to focus on all the key issues that matter to the industry with presentations on market outlooks, market access, China,
batteries, cobalt extraction, responsible sourcing, sustainability among others. As usual we are expecting a good attendance, so book now
to avoid disappointment.
In conjunction with the CDI Conference, the CoG3 Research Consortium is holding a technology workshop on cobalt on Tuesday
16 May: www.nhm.ac.uk/cog3-project
For full programme and registration information visit www.thecdi.com/conferenceor contact Isabelle Porri, CDI:
Tel: +44 (0)1483 510470
e-mail: iporri@thecdi.com
12

Have scientists finally beenable to make metallic
hydrogen?
By Tamara Alliot, MMTA
Last month, Harvard University scientists claimed in thejournal Science to have produced metallic hydrogen, asubstance never before seen on earth. This marks the
pinnacle of a theory first put forward in 1935 on theoreticalgrounds by Eugene Wigner and Hillard Bell Huntington.
Metallic hydrogen could revolutionise technology, enabling
Photo credit: Ranga Dias—Image of liquid hydrogen after being crushed into suspected
the creation of super-fast computers, high-speed
metallic hydrogen
levitating trains and ultra-efficient vehicles as well as
One problem is that the scientists cannot show off the piece of metal
dramatically improving almost anything involving electricity, due tobecause it is still stuck between the jaws of the anvil, and they say
its super-conducting properties. Approximately 15% of energy isthat removing it might cause it to disappear entirely. Though thelost to dissipation during transmission, so if you could make wires
Harvard researchers believe that the material they can see crushedfrom metallic hydrogen, electrical grid efficiencies would bein the anvil is metallic hydrogen, without access to the sample, thismassively improved.
cannot be a definitive conclusion.
Humanity’s desire to explore outer space could also be one step
closer. Converting the metallic hydrogen back to its molecular form Other experts have said that the shininess may be something else
entirely, like aluminium oxide, which is known to coat the diamonds
would release a huge amount of energy, making it the mostthat sit in the anvil and may become shiny under high pressure.
powerful propellant ever, four times more powerful than the best
available today. This would revolutionise rocket technology and allow Even before this particular paper was criticised, other researchershumans to travel further and faster than ever before.
have criticised the lab’s approach and methods, arguing that it could
But first, the scientists need to establish whether the metal is stable
at normal pressures and temperatures. For the moment, the metal
is trapped between the grip of the two diamonds used in an anvil tocrush the liquid hydrogen at a temperature far below freezing. The
pressure used was more than that found at the centre of the earth.
The scientists plan to ease the pressure on the metallic hydrogenover the next few weeks with the hope that similar to the way
diamonds form from graphite under intense heat and pressure, but
remain diamonds when that pressure and heat is removed, thehydrogen will stay metallic in normal conditions.
The scientists say that they have confirmed the substance is metallic
hydrogen by performing various measurements, and due to its shiny
metallic appearance. Others, however, believe that the substance
may be something else.
Convinced?
Those casting doubts on the discovery say that the substance could
easily not be metallic hydrogen at all.
In October 2016, the Harvard researchers first posted their work to
arXiv, a website that collects scientific studies before they are
published through peer-reviewed journals. At that point it attracted
huge amounts of criticism from other scientists who argued that it
was based on a mistake. Nonetheless the paper went on to be
published in Science in January.

lead to false positives.
Scientists have also questioned why the team published their results
before they have taken the material out of the anvil, but the
researchers claimed in press materials that they had done so inorder to publicise their “breakthrough event”, and that further
experiments would shed more light
The criticisms could be down to scientific jealousy or genuine
concerns - time will tell!

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13

LETTER FROM NORTH

investments by a recession hit industry.” No iron ore has yet been
mined.

AMERICA — with a view of

Of more interest to MMTA members, however, may be some of theother metals also mentioned in the NBC News report. According to
the Afghanistan Investment Support Agency (often quoting the US
Geological Survey), apart from extensive gold deposits, the country
also boasts: beryllium deposits in the eastern provinces of Nangarharand Laghman; rare earths and uranium in Helmand province; and,By Tom Butcher, Independent Consultant
lithium deposits (in the form of lithium chloride in dry lake beds),
located in Herat and Nimroz provinces in the west of the country andin Ghazni province in east central part of the country. And hard rock
Dear Members
lithium deposits are to be found in the northeastern provinces ofAh, the joys of living in New York! When I first came over here to live Badakhshan, Nangarhar, Uruzgan, and Nuristan.
in the early ‘90s, you knew that winter was actually going to be
Amongst the list of mineral areas of interest identified by the USGS
winter. It would be absolutely freezing for weeks on end. But crisp
in its surveys in the country between October 2009 and September
and dry. One day I remember that it went down to four degrees
2011 were the following:
below zero – Fahrenheit. That’s -20°C! However, today (written on
February 7th) it’s 37°F, tomorrow it’s forecast to be 60°F, and on
Area of Interest
Main
Minor or Possible
Commodities
Commodities
Thursday we’re expecting snow. As is often said here: “Go figure!”Afghanistan’s resource landscapeAnyway, moving from the cold here to somewhere else cold,
I thought I might take the opportunity of revisiting Afghanistan andrefreshing my memory (and, maybe, yours) about its mineral
resources. And, in particular, any minor metals resources it might
have. The review will, perforce, be selective, as I cannot claim agreat degree of knowledge, even though I did spend some time in
the area in the mid-‘80s.
In my research, I was reminded of some of the more dramatic
headlines that appeared in the media back in 2014. For example, thisone from NBC News: “Rare Earth: Afghanistan Sits on $1 Trillion in
Minerals”. According to the NBC report, US researchers flying aerial
surveys were able to determine that “Afghanistan may hold 60
million tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons ofrare earth elements such as lanthanum, cerium and neodymium,and lodes (sic?) of aluminum, gold, silver, zinc, mercury and lithium.”
The presence of significant deposits of copper was certainly in no
doubt. Back in 2006, two Chinese state owned companies were
granted a 30-year lease (with an estimated future investment of $3
billion) to develop the Mes Aynak deposits, thought to be some of thelargest in the world. Because of safety concerns (and the discoveryof an ancient Buddhist site), nothing has yet come of the deal. And
although CNBC reported in December last year that China had been
given the “all-clear” by the Taliban to mine the copper, it remains tobe seen what happens. (The reserves at the Aynak, Jawhar, andDarband deposits also contain both cobalt and silver.)Bakhud Fluorite

Fluorite

Chaigai Hills
Travertine
Daykundi TinTungsten-Lithium
Dusar-Shaida
Copper-Tin
Kharnak-Khanja
Mercury
Katawas Gold

Travertine (onyx)

Khanneshin
Carbonatite

REE, uranium, andphosphorus

NuristanPegmatite

REE, lithium, tin,and mica

Tin, tungsten, lithium
Copper, tin
Mercury
Gold, silver (?)

Zinc, lead, silver, antimony, and barium
Copper, gold, and molybdenum
Copper and lead-zincLead, zinc, and tungsten
Antimony, arsenic,
gold, and silver (?)
Mercury and tungsten(?)
Thorium, barium,
strontium, and limestone
Tantalum and niobium

Source: US Geological Survey

In the context of what is happening in the world of batteries andelectric vehicles, perhaps one of the more interesting metals
mentioned above is lithium. The initial analysis of just one area in theprovince of Ghazni indicated that deposits there may be as large
even as those in Bolivia, which has some of the largest lithium
reserves in the world. However, it remains to be seen what actually
will happen with the country’s lithium reserves – if anything.

Quite fortuitously, I had the great pleasure of seeing my very goodfriend Ted Callahan the other day. It was especially serendipitous, as
Ted (Dr Callahan) has lived for most of the last 11 years in Afghanistan
and knows the country extraordinarily well. When I ask him what he
In 2011, five years after the Mes Aynak deal, the rights to mine ironthought was the greatest hurdle to mining just about any of theore in three of the four blocks in central Afghanistan’s Hajigak region
country’s subsurface mineral resources, he answered simply: “Thewere acquired by seven Indian companies. According to The Hindu inabsence of any rule of law.” And that I could take this as broadly or as
early 2016: “They were slated to invest $10.8 billion for setting up
narrowly as I saw fit – it was all the same.
steel and power plants, besides mining the deposit. However, in view
As interesting illustrations of this, he mentioned two recentof the security risks in wake of the withdrawal of U.S. troops, there
incidents. The first occurred last Monday at a lapis lazuli mine located
was a go slow on the project along with a reported scale-down of
14

Image Credit: Shutterstock—Afghanistan

in the Sar-e Sang area in Kuran Wa Munjan district (that’s in
Badakhshan province). Miffed that, after four days of negotiations
with the mine owner (one Qomandan Malik) – over demands for
either 40% of the income of the mine on a monthly basis or that heshould leave the mine – no agreement was forthcoming, the local
deputy provincial shadow governor (i.e. Taliban local leader),together with 300 local militants, attacked the mine. The latest news
I have is that the locals armed themselves and beat off the attack. A
follow-up attack by the Taliban does not appear imminent. So, that’s
an example of what can be happen if you are operating in an area
where the Taliban are present.
The second was reported by Reuters this last Friday (February 10th):“Eleven years after its first big mining privatization [for cement], theAfghan government has abruptly cancelled the contract, highlighting
the unpredictable nature of investing in a sector seen as crucial tothe country's economic development.” Perhaps more telling from a“rule of law” angle were the words from an Afghan official who said:“The ministry doesn't have the mechanism for registration, it doesn't
have the mechanism for inspection.” So, on the other side of thecoin, even if you do deal with the government (rather than the
Taliban – somewhat anodynely termed an AOG or Armed
Opposition Group), there’s absolutely no assurance that things will
work out either.
Perhaps as additional words of warning, what Gerard van Bohemen,
Chair of the [UN] Security Council Committee established pursuant
to resolution 1988 (2011), in his letter of October 4, 2016 said areparticularly illuminating: “Illegal mining remains a significant income
stream for the Taliban. … [T]he Taliban remains directly involved in
the sector by controlling illegal mining sites, in particular in the southand east of the country, by extorting sums from licensed Afghan
mining operations and by acting as a transport facilitator for otherillegally extracted natural resources.”
It would appear, therefore, to me anyway, that, at present, on a very
simplistic level, you’re damned if you do, and you’re damned if you
don’t do things through “official” channels in Afghanistan. Who
knows, though, how long things will take to sort out.
Maybe it’s worth leaving the last words on how things are in the
country to General John W. Nicholson, Commander US Forces –Afghanistan, ones that he gave before the Senate Armed Services
Committee on the Situation in Afghanistan on February 9th:
“The current security situation is a stalemate where the equilibrium
favors the government”. Hmmm.
If over the coming months I come across anything further ofinterest, I shall make sure to keep you all updated. And if you wanta considerably more nuanced (and in-depth) view of how things
currently stand, I’d be more than happy to put you in contact with
Ted – he’s the one who knows.
In the meantime, though, as always, I remain, with best wishes fromNew York.
Yours,Tom Butcher, February 13th, 201715

16