Winter 2024

Table of Contents: TCC News No. 75
Global temperature for 2023 was the highest since 1891 ............................................................................................ 1
Highlights of the Global Climate in 2023 .................................................................................................................... 3
Summary of Japan’s climatic characteristics for 2023 .................................................................................................. 5
TCC Expert Visit to TMD........................................................................................................................................... 8
TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Forecast................................................................................................................ 8
TCC Activity Report for 2023 .................................................................................................................................. 10

Global temperature for 2023 was the highest since 1891
JMA analysis indicates that the annual anomaly of the global average surface temperature for 2023 (i.e., thecombined average of the near-surface air temperatures over land and the sea- surface temperatures) was +0.54°C
above the 1991 – 2020 average, and was the warmest on record since 1891 (Figure 1-1).
On a longer time scale, the annual global average surface temperature has risen at a rate of about +0.76°C per
century, and 2014 to 2023 were among the warmest decade since 1891 (Table 1-1). These recent hightemperatures are thought to be affected by the global warming due to increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations including carbon dioxide. In addition, the global averaged surface temperature is affected byinter-annual to decadal natural fluctuations intrinsic to the earth’s climate.
High temperature deviations were observed in most parts of the world (Figure 1-2).
JMA monitors monthly, seasonal and annual average anomalies of global surface temperature, with resultsroutinely updated on the TCC website at https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/gwp.html

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Figure 1-1 Long-term change in annual mean surface temperature anomalies over the globe
Anomalies are derived from the 1991 – 2020 average baseline. The thin black line indicates surface temperature
anomalies for each year, while the blue and red lines indicate the related five-year running mean and the long-term
linear trend, respectively.

Figure 1-2 Annual mean temperature anomalies
The circles indicate anomalies of surface temperature averaged in 5° x 5° grid boxes. The annual mean global
temperature anomaly is determined by averaging the anomalies, derived from the 1991 – 2020 average baseline, of all
grid boxes weighted with the grid box area.

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Table 1-1 Ranking of annual global average temperatures

Rank

Year

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

2023
2016
2020
2019
2015
2017
2022
2021
2018
2014

Temperature Anomaly
w.r.t. 1991 – 2020 average
+0.54
+0.35
+0.34
+0.31
+0.30
+0.26
+0.24
+0.22
+0.16
+0.13

(TAMAKI Yuko, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

Highlights of the Global Climate in 2023
Annual mean temperatures were above normal in most parts of the world, and very high from East Asia to
Southeast Asia, from Central Asia to the northern part of Northern Africa, in northern North America, from eastern
to southern North America, and in central South America (Figure 2-1).
Extremely high temperatures were frequently observed in eastern East Asia, from southern China tonortheastern Australia, in southern India, in southern Central Asia, in the Arabian Peninsula, from eastern Europe tonorthwestern Northern Africa, in and around northern Madagascar, in northern North America, and from southern
North America to central South America (Figure 2-3 and map for details).
Annual precipitation amounts were above normal from northwestern Central Asia to the Arabian Peninsula andfrom central to western Europe, and below normal in southwestern Central Asia and from southwestern Europe towestern Northern Africa (Figure 2-2).
Extremely high precipitation amounts were frequently observed in western Russia and central Europe. Extremely
low precipitation amounts were frequently observed from southern China to the Indochina Peninsula, in thenorthern part of Northern Africa, and from eastern to central Canada (Figure 2-3 and map for details).
Major extreme climatic events and weather–related disasters occurring in 2023 are listed below (Table 2-1, seealso Figure 2-3). Further details are provided in the Annual Report on Global Extreme Climate Events in 2023 on

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the TCC website.
Table 2-1 Major extreme climatic events and weather-related disasters worldwide in 2023

Type

Period

Area

(1)

Warm

March, June-October

In and around eastern East Asia

(2)

Warm

April-December

Southeast Asia

(3)

Warm

June-August

From eastern China to southern Central Asia

(4)

Wet

March-July

From central India to Pakistan

(5)

Warm

July-December

From Turkey to the Arabian Peninsula

(6)

Wet

August, October-December

Central Europe

(7)

Warm

March, June-December

From central Europe to Western Africa

(8)

Dry

February-April

From Spain to northern Algeria(9)

Heavy Rain

September

Libya

(10)

Heavy Rain

March-May,
October-December

From Somalia to Cameroon(11)

CycloneFebruary-March

From Madagascar to Malawi

(12)

Warm

January, May-December

From northern to central North America

(13)

Warm

May-December

From southern North America to central South America(14)

Wildfire

AugustThe state of Hawaii, USA

(15)

Warm

March, June-September

From northern to southeastern Australia

Figure 2-1 Normalized annual mean temperature
anomalies for 2023
Categories are defined by the annual mean temperature
anomaly against the normal divided by its standard
deviation and averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The
thresholds of each category are –1.28, –0.44, 0, +0.44
and +1.28. The normal values and standard deviations arecalculated from 1991 – 2020 statistics. Land areas
without graphics represent regions for which theobservation data sample is insufficient or normal data areunavailable.

Figure 2-2 Annual total precipitation ratios for 2023
Categories are defined by the annual precipitation ratio tothe normal averaged in 5° × 5° grid boxes. The thresholdsof each category are 70, 100 and 120%. Land areas
without graphics represent regions for which theobservation data sample is insufficient or normal data areunavailable.

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Figure 2-3 Major extreme climate events and weather–related disasters worldwide in 2023
Schematic representation of major extreme climate events and weather–related disasters occurring during theyear.
(NAKAMURA Tetsu, OKUNAKA Yuka, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

Summary of Japan’s climatic characteristics for 2023
- Temperatures were above normal from spring to autumn except for a few short spells of below-normal conditions,
resulting in the highest average nationwide annual mean since 1898 (Figure 3-1).
- Autumn sunshine durations were significantly above normal and precipitation was significantly below normal on
the Pacific side of eastern and western Japan and in Okinawa/Amami, largely because the frequency of typhoons
and other low-pressure systems affecting these regions was lower than normal. Sunshine durations on the Pacificside of western Japan were the highest and precipitation was the lowest for autumn (Figure 3-2).

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Figure 3-1 Time-series representations of five-day running mean temperatures (Jan. – Dec. 2023)

Figure 3-2 Annual climate anomalies/ratios for Japan in autumn 2023

Seasonal characteristics(a) Winter (December 2022 – February 2023)
Periodic cold flowed in over Japan’s main islands of Japan. More occasions of cold air affect caused
below-normal seasonal temperatures specifically in northern Japan. Seasonal precipitation was above normal on

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the Sea of Japan side of eastern Japan, where northwest monsoon conditions brought more rain and snow, andseasonal temperatures were above normal in Okinawa/Amami, which was often covered by warm-air masses.
High-pressure systems covered the area around western Japan more frequently than low-pressure systems andfronts, causing below-normal seasonal precipitation on the Pacific side of northern to western Japan and the Sea ofJapan side of western Japan.
(b) Spring (March – May)
Warm-air masses frequently covered Japan during this period, causing the highest seasonal mean temperatures
over Japan for spring since 1898 (anomaly: +1.59°C). Values were significantly above normal in northern to westernJapan and above normal in Okinawa/Amami.
Seasonal sunshine durations were above normal nationwide due to frequent high-pressure system coverage, while
low-pressure systems and fronts brought heavy rain to western Japan and the Sea of Japan side of Eastern Japan.
(c) Summer (June – August)Coverage by warm-air and sub-tropical warm air inflows caused the highest nationwide average seasonal mean
temperature since 1898 (anomaly: +1.76°C). Values in northern and eastern Japan were also the highest forsummer since 1946, with values in western Japan tying with 2013, 2018 and 2022 for the same record.
High-pressure systems frequently covered northern and western Japan, while the June Baiu front and typhoons
Khanun (T2306) and Lan (T2307) in August brought significantly above-normal seasonal precipitation to the Pacificside of eastern and western Japan and Okinawa/Amami. These also caused below-normal seasonal sunshine
durations in Okinawa/Amami.
(d) Autumn (September – November)
Coverage by warm-air and caused a seasonal nationwide mean temperature anomaly of +1.39°C, which was thewarmest for autumn since 1898. Seasonal mean temperatures in northern to western Japan were also significantly
above normal, with those in northern and eastern Japan being the highest for autumn since 1946.
Seasonal precipitation was the highest for autumn since 1946 on the Sea of Japan side of northern Japan, as theregion was significantly affected by low-pressure systems and cold air. Values were significantly below normal on
the Pacific side of eastern and western Japan as well as in Okinawa/Amami due to a lower-than-normal frequencyof low-pressure systems and typhoons. Seasonal precipitation was the lowest for autumn since 1946 on the Pacificside of western Japan.
Seasonal sunshine durations were significantly above normal on the Pacific side of eastern and western Japan,
on the Sea of Japan side of western Japan and in Okinawa/Amami in association with frequent high-pressure systemcoverage. Values were the highest for autumn since 1946 on the Pacific side of eastern and western Japan and on
the Sea of Japan side of western Japan.
(NATORI Hiroaki, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

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TCC Expert Visit to TMD
TCC arranges expert visits to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to support climate
services and effective technological transfer.
As part of such efforts, two TCC experts visited the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) from 6 to 8 December
2023 to provide training on the generation of Global Warming information based on the latest Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report and promote effective use of TCC's Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate
System (iTacs). The visit was conducted as follow-up to the TCC Training Seminar of 2022 (see TCC News No. 71 andthe TCC website for details), and also provided an opportunity for further collaboration between TMD and TCC.
The course was attended by around 15 TMD staff, who also engaged in practical exercises using field observation
data from Thailand and Global Warming Projection data from JMA’s Meteorological Research Institute. Basic iTacs
operation was also highlighted via hands-on exercises, and individual groups of two or three subsequently analyzed
previous extreme climate events occurring in Thailand using iTacs and made related presentations.
The visit provided good opportunities for attendees to learn about global warming and contributed to the potential
for further collaboration. TCC will continue to arrange expert visits to NMHSs in Southeast Asia and elsewhere asnecessary to assist with operational climate services.

Figure 4-1 Practical exercises

Figure 4-2 End of the seminar<<Table of contents <Top of this article

TCC Training Seminar on Seasonal Forecast
Since 2008, JMA's Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) has assisted National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs) in improving their climate services. The Center's major activities in this regard involve providing basic
climate data, products and tools through its website and assisting with capacity development in the Asia-Pacificregion. Training seminars are held to support capacity development as part of TCC’s role as an RCC in the WMO RA

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II area, along with expert visits to NMHSs to promote effective technology transfer and discuss potential support forclimate services.
In this context, the Center held a seasonal forecasting training seminar at JMA headquarters from 29 January to
2 February 2024, with in-person attendance for the first time in four years following COVID-19. The event was
attended by 13 people from NMHSs in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic
Republic, Malaysia, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. Focus was placedon forecasting capacity via exercises using the Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate System (iTacs) and a beta
version of a JMA three-month guidance tool. The course provided a reminder of climate system essentials via
presentations and hands-on work using in-situ observation data from individual trainees for the guidance tool. The
conclusion featured presentations from all participants on February – April prediction results in their own countries
and fruitful discussions between staff and trainees.
Presentation content is available on the TCC website athttps://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/library/library2023.html.

Figure 5-1 Participants and Tokyo Climate Center staff

Figure 5-2 Practical exercises

Figure 5-3 Presentation(TAKAHASHI Kiyotoshi, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

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TCC Activity Report for 2023
In 2023, the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) continued to support Asia-Pacific National Meteorological andHydrological Services (NMHSs) by providing and enhancing data and products, as well as hosting the East Asian
Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF), holding training seminars, publishing quarterly newsletters andparticipating in international meetings.
1. Enhancement of online data/products/tools
1.1 Special reports on extreme events
In a mandate role as a WMO Regional Climate Centre (RCC) in Regional Association II (RA II), TCC monitors world
climate conditions with focus on Asia and its surrounding area. The Center issues reports on extreme climate eventsand summaries of the Asian summer/winter monsoon on its website(https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/reports/index.html).
During the 2023 Baiu season, enhanced frontal activity brought heavy rain over wide areas from western tonorthern parts of the country, accompanying stationary linear mesoscale convective systems elsewhere. From
mid-July onward, record-high temperatures were observed in northern/eastern Japan and elsewhere. The averagetemperature for northern parts of the country in late July was the highest for the region since records began in
1946, and that for eastern Japan was the second highest for the region. The average temperature for the Sea ofJapan side of eastern and western Japan in early August was also the highest ever. In this context, the Japan
Meteorological Agency (JMA), with the help of the Advisory Panel on Extreme Climatic Events (see TCC News No.
28 ), investigated atmospheric and oceanic conditions considered to have contributed to such climate extremes andsummarized related primary factors. A comprehensive report is available athttps://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/data/news/press_20230928.pdf
1.2 Upgrade of JMA’s Global Ensemble Prediction System for One-month Prediction
WMC/JMA upgraded its Global Ensemble Prediction System for One-month Prediction in March. The area
relating to two-tier sea surface temperatures (SSTs) based on prediction using the Seasonal Ensemble Prediction
System (Seasonal EPS) was expanded from tropical and subtropical oceans to the whole global ocean. Model
topography will also be upgraded using high-quality Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data.
1.3 Commencement of JRA-3Q utilization in diagnosis products and iTacs
The fundamental dataset used in diagnosis products and iTacs was changed from JRA-55 to JRA-3Q (see as per
TCC News No. 72).
2. Capacity development
TCC conducts annual training seminars as part of capacity-development activities related to its role as an RCC in
RA II. In addition to running annual training seminars, it also arranges expert visits to and hosts visitors from NMHSs
to support exchanges of views on climate services and the effective transfer of technology.
2.1 Expert visits

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In February, TCC experts visited the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA) to provide follow-up training on one-month forecasts and basic operation of TCC’s
Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate System (iTacs; see TCC News No. 71).
In June, a TCC expert and a Global Producing Centre (GPC) Tokyo expert visited the Meteorological Service
Singapore (MSS)/Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) to enhance collaboration between both parties (seeTCC News No. 73).
In December, TCC experts visited the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) to provide follow-up training on
global warming and basic iTacs operation (see TCC News No. 75).
3. International meetings
3.1 Regional climate outlook forums
RCCs are expected to actively contribute to and lead profound discussions in Regional Climate Outlook Forums(RCOFs). In 2023, TCC hosted the 11th Session of the East Asia Winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF-11), and TCC
experts also participated in the following RCOFs in Asia together with GPC-Tokyo experts:
19th session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Regional Association
II (FOCRA II-19) in Nanning, China, from 8 to 10 May
25th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-25) online, from 27 to 29 April
26th session of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-26) online, from 26 September to 3 October
21st session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-21) online, from 17 to 23 November
11th session of the East Asia winter Climate Outlook Forum (EASCOF-11) with hosting at JMA headquarters,from 8 to 10 November (including a special session for introduction to objective seasonal forecast toward a
consensus outlook)
TCC attendees gave presentations on seasonal predictions based on JMA’s numerical model, and participated in
discussions toward a consensus on regional forecasts.
In collaboration with TCC, a representative from the World Meteorological Centre Tokyo (WMC Tokyo) attended
SASCOF-25, SASCOF-26 and ASEANCOF-21 online.
4. Publications
TCC has published its newsletter (TCC News) on a quarterly basis since 2005. The publication is intended toenhance communication and provide information to NMHSs and related communities about recent TCC
developments, events and activities as well as details of the Center’s reports on the state of the climate, monitoring
results and outlooks. In 2023, TCC News No. 71 - 74 were issued and made available on the TCC website.
5. Plans for 2024
 Contribution to the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)RCCs are expected to play a major role in GFCS implementation. In this context, TCC plans to further strengthen
its activities and lead RA II contributions to the framework. These efforts will include the provision of ongoing
assistance to NMHSs for better climate services, as well as maintenance of a site for information sharing on climate
services in RA II.
 Product/tool provision

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TCC/JMA plans to start provision of online information on seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting for the western
North Pacific around May/June.
TCC also plans to release a new experimental three-month forecast guidance tool online in addition to its
one-month guidance tool.
 Capacity development

TCC will host a dozen experts at its annual training seminar in later FY 2024, and will continue to dispatch experts
to NMHSs as necessary and host visitors from NMHSs upon request.
(TAKAHASHI Kiyotoshi, Tokyo Climate Center)<<Table of contents <Top of this article

You can also find the latest newsletter from Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA).
JICA Magazine
https://jicamagazine.jica.go.jp/en/"JICA Magazine" is a public relations magazine published by JICA. It introduces the current situation ofdeveloping countries around the world, the people who are active in the field, and the content of their activities.
Any comments or inquiry on this newsletterTokyo Climate Center, Japan Meteorological Agency

and/or the TCC website would be much

3-6-9 Toranomon, Minato City, Tokyo 105-8431, Japanappreciated.
Please e-mail to tcc@met.kishou.go.jp.

TCC Website:(Editors: NEMOTO Noboru, TAKAHASHI Kiyotoshi)

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html<Top of this article

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