Lessons from Ukraine War in Maritime East Asia
TAKAI Susumu, LL.M., LL.D Cand.
Introduction
It has been passed a year since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022,
in the name of "Special military operation." Many lessons have been learned fromthe war in Ukraine, in which a permanent member of the UN Security Council
openly invaded a UN member state. The war is said to be a confrontation between
totalitarian countries and like-minded democratic countries.

（https://www.nippon.com/ja/in-depth/a08104/）（https://www.nippon.com/ja/news/fnn20220405342569/）

In East Asia, tensions are rising in US-China relations over differences invalues, China-Taiwan relations over the unification issue, and Japan-Chinarelations over the Senkaku Islands. The East China Sea, where the Senkaku
Islands are located, is said to be in a touch-and-go situation because of China'swolf-warrior diplomacy.
1 Lessons Japan Learned from Ukrainian War
It was reconfirmed that the causes of war between nations are not only politicalbut also geopolitical. The deep-rooted expansionist tendencies in Russian society
were consistent. Warfare in society and human cognition have important meaning.
Russia violated international law and made its position in the international
community extremely bad. If there is legitimacy under international law and thesupport of international public opinion can be obtained, even small and mediumsized countries can compete with large powers to a certain extent.
What is most important is that Japan itself has the will and ability to defend
itself. Showing a clear stance that the U.S. will protect Japan against threats from
China will create a large deterrent. Japan should hold close consultations withthe U.S. to further ensure the credibility of extended deterrence. Ability to1

continuously obtain the necessary weapons is extremely important, and theexistence of the industrial and technological bases that make this possible isessential.
2 Japan’s National Security Strategy and Japan-U. Relations(1) Japan’s Security Related 3 Documents
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced Japan to think about the realities of theWorld. Japan's Cabinet decided the National Security Strategy, National Defense
Strategy and Defense Buildup Plan on 16 December last year. The maintenanceand protection of the international order based on international law is newly added
as Japan’s national interest. Japan decided to possess counter counterattack
capability in preparation for missile attacks.

（https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2022121600931&g=pol）Strategic approach and 3 key measures in the strategy areas are as follows.
➀ Maintaining and developing a free and open international order andstrengthening cooperation with allies and like-minded countries. ➁ Deepening
security cooperation with the U.S., such as Japan-U.S. operational coordination,improvement of interoperability, cooperation in cyber and space fields, andpromotion of equipment and technology cooperation. ➂ Strengthen thedeterrence and response capabilities of the Japan-U.S. Alliance to deter
unilateral changes or attempts to change the status quo by force.
(2) Strengthening Japan-U.S. RelationshipJapan-U.S. Security Consultative Committee (2+2) was held on January 11,2023. The Committee strongly opposed China's attempts to unilaterally change
the status quo in the East China Sea. The committee reconfirmed that Article 5of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands. And the2Committee recognized that attempts to unilaterally change borders by force
undermine the very foundations of the international order.

（https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/na/na1/us/page1_001475.html）

Kishida-Biden Summit was held on January 13, 2023. President Biden has
expressed his full support for the fundamental strengthening of defense
capabilities, substantial increases in defense budgets, and possession ofcounterattack capabilities. The two leaders agreed to emphasize the importanceof peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and promote the peaceful settlement of
the China-Taiwan issue.
3 China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy in the East China Sea(1) China’s National DreamXi Jinping revealed that the Chinese Dream is to “the rejuvenation of the greatChinese nation” in 2012. It is said that Xi Jinping’s China is within the scope ofthis map.
The largest map of the Qing Dynasty（https://d.hatena.ne.jp/keyword/%E5%9B%BD%E6%81%A5%E5%9C%B0%E5%9B%B3）3

China tried to realize his dream of making China a maritime power. Ans China
established China Coast Guard in 2013 and put it under the command of theCentral Military Committee in June 2018. China intends to expel the U.S. Forcefrom Asia and wants China to be the sole superpower in the region. Then, Chinaneeds domination of the sea and air route to the Pacific Ocean. Due to thestrategic location of Japanese Senkaku Islands, the PRC needs to control and/oroccupy the Islands to realizes his ambitions above. Presently, China seeks tocontrol the Miyako Strait, which is China’s main route to the Pacific Ocean.
(2) China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy
The CCG law authorizes the CCG to take the necessary warning and control
measures to expel foreign ship from the waters under the China’s jurisdiction.
According to the Law, in situations related to sovereignty and maritime rights, aCCG ship can use weapons. On the other hand, the JCG Act stipulates that JCG
ships may use a weapon within the extent deemed reasonably necessary.
However, this provision is not applicable to foreign warships and ships operated
by foreign governments.
Deployment of PLA Navy vessels
ChinaJapan

27N
Senkakus
CCG
Defense White Paper

TaiwanShips

2020

４ Japan’s Senkaku Islands
Japan's Senkaku Islands, which are a matter of concern between Japan andChina. In 1885, the Okinawa prefecture officials landed and conductedinvestigations of the Senkaku Islands which were terra nullius at the time. Japanincorporated the Senkaku Islands to Japan’s territory on14 January 1895.
The Peace Treaty with Japan placed the Ryukyu Islands under the U.S.
Administration in 1952. The U.S. Ryukyu government continued valid control over
the Senkaku Islands. The U.S. returned the Ryukyu Islands including theSenkaku Islands to Japan in 1972. The Senkaku Islands were explicitly included4

in the areas returned to Japan in the Agreed Minutes attached to the Okinawa
Reversion Agreement.
China suddenly started to claim of territorial sovereignty without any ‘title’based on international law in 1971. China’s first assertions of the territorial claims
were 76 years after Japan’s cabinet decision of incorporation. China insists that
the Senkaku Islands were not terra nullius but inherent territory of China when
Japan incorporated the Islands in 1895. China bases its assertion on peculiar andskewed interpretations of historical documents.

（https://www.spf.org/islandstudies/jp/info_library/senkaku-islands-05-industry--05_industry002.html)（https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/senkaku/images/qa/img01_l.jpg）

５ Increasing Risk Between JCG Ship and CCG Ship
(1) China’s Hybrid Strategy
The Xi Jinping administration has publicly stated that the Senkaku Islands arepart of Taiwan and Taiwan is part of China. There is a possibility of mass water5

discharge and/or ramming against a JCG ship, such as a CCG ship did against
a Vietnamese Coast Guard ship in the South China Sea.
JCG ships must tackle the China’s hybrid strategy which deploys CCG ships
on the front and PLA Navy vessels at the rear. If JCG ships are excluded by theCCG ships from the territorial waters around the Senkakus, the world would
consider it the loss of Japan’s valid control over the Islands. Japan will strive toprevent the Senkaku Islands from being taken over by China and will never giveup on them.
(2) Xi Jinping’s Insatiable Ambition
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are said to have insatiable ambitions. Putin’saggression made a big impression on world strategic values. One of the reasonsfor Putin’s attempt to unilaterally change the status quo by force was his historicalview that Ukraine is eternally tied to Russia. By the same token, Xi Jinping
considers Taiwan a part of its inherent territory. Xi Jinping is carefully watching
the fate of Putin’s gamble and, by so doing, consider the timing of when China
starts unilateral invasion of Taiwan.
In August 2022, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. Immediately
after that, China conducted large-scale military exercises in 6 exercise areas
around Taiwan, increasing the tension in the Taiwan Strait.

（https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/nancy-pelosi-visit-china-holds-military-drills-close-to-taiwan-shores-1983284-2022-08-03）

6

The exercises conducted by China encircling Taiwan may be a dry run for theactual Taiwan unification war plan.
Xi Jinping explicitly mentioned his future course of action on the day the party
congress opened. Xi Jinping said he wants a peaceful reunification of Taiwan, butnever promises to renounce the use of force. He strongly discouraged USintervention by stating that the target of the use of force or necessary measureswould be "external forces."
Conclusion
In the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands, potential clashes between
CCG ships and JCG ships may trigger the breakdown of deterrence and lead tosmall armed clashes in the East China Sea. There are serious concerns that it
would escalate into a large-scale military conflict in the region. Equally, concerns
are rising that China may attempt to reunify Taiwan by force in the next 5 years
or less. It would be great that enhanced security cooperation between Japan andthe U.S. can thwart Xi Jinping’s ambitions and ease tensions in the East China
Sea.

（https://www.zakzak.co.jp/soc/news/210219/pol2102190001-n1.html）日中巡視船（https://www.jiji.com/jc/d4?p=kss816-jlp11556205&d=d4_ter）魚釣島（https://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/senkaku/index.html）魚釣島周辺域）

7(2023/2/28)