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1. Proclamation of a predictive earthquake map by the Headquarters
for Earthquake Research Promotion
The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Prostrong shakes of slightly less than 6 and over on
motion of the Ministry of Education and Sciencea seismic intensity scale that might attack us inannounced in March 2005 a Probabilistic Seisa certain period of time from now on. The map is
mic Hazard Map.
called as earthquake hazard map on a probabilThe Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map shows
ity theory in the ﬁeld of earthquake engineering
the result of estimation per area of the likelihoodand seismology.
of heavy shakes that might attack Japan, givFor reference, the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
ing a consideration to a long-range probability
Map is shown, indicating the likelihood of earthof earthquake occurrence all over the country.
quakes of slightly less than 6 and over on seisIt will tell us, for example, of the likelihood ofmic intensity scale within 30 years to come.

A distribution map of the probability of earthquake of slightly less than 6and over on seismic intensity scale or higher within 30 years to come.

High{Rather highProbability
26% or higher
6%~26%
3%~6%0.1%~0.3%
Under 0.1%

Note: “High” in the probability of earthquake of slightly lessthan 6 and over on a seismic intensity scale within 30years to come shows any of the following probabilities:
26% means that an earthquake might happen in about
100 years on the average, 6% means that an earthquake
might happen in about 500 years, and 3% means that anearthquake might happen in about 1,000 years.

(Source: National Seismic Hazard Map for Japan prepared by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion)

2Japan Earthquake Reinsurance Co., Ltd. 2006

2. The Central Disaster Prevention Council proclaimed the result of estimation of earthquake losses.
The Central Disaster Prevention Council of Japan has disclosed the results of estimation of probable Tokaiearthquake, Tonankai earthquake, Nankai earthquake, metropolitan earthquake directly above its epicenter, deeps earthquakes surrounding the Japan Deeps and the Chishima Deeps and is under discussion
on a disaster preventive strategy and preventive measures against disasters with a view to reducing earthquake caused losses.

Damages to buildings
The dead

Tokai earthquake

Tonankai and Nankai
earthquakes

Metropolitan earthquake directly above
its epicenter

Deeps earthquakes
surrounding the Japan
Deeps and the Chishima Deeps

Approx. 460, 000

Approx. 630,000

Approx. 850,000

Approx. 21,000

Approx.

Approx. 12,500

Approx. 11,000

Approx.

5,900290

Economic loss

Approx. ¥37,000 billion

Approx. ¥57,000 billion

Approx. ¥112,000 billion

Approx. ¥1,300 billion

DirectApprox. ¥26,000 billion

Approx. ¥43,000 billion

Approx. ¥67,000 billion

Approx. ¥1,000 billion

Indirect

Approx. ¥11,000 billion

Approx. ¥14,000 billion

Approx. ¥45,000 billion

Approx.

¥300 billion

Notes:
1. Each case shows the worst example of earthquake which might happen at 18:00 and with a wind velocity of 15 meters.
2. It is assumed that Tonankai and Nankai earthquakes happen at the same time.
3. Metropolitan earthquake directly above its epicenter is assumed to happen in the north of Tokyo Bay.
4. Deeps earthquakes surrounding the Japan Deeps and the Chishima Deeps are of the Miyagi-ken Oki earthquake type (worst case of the 6 assumed
earthquakes:).
(Source: Data published by the Cabinet Ofﬁce)

Japan Earthquake Reinsurance Co., Ltd. 2006

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