Public Symposium on Environmentally
Sustainable Transport (EST) in Asia

EST and Resilience inEmerging Economies
Dr. Ashish Verma
President, Transportation Research Group of India (TRG)
Assistant Professor

Date:
19th March 2015
Venue:The Lecture Hall, Graduate School of Environmental
Studies Building, Nagoya University

Transportation Engineering
Dept. of Civil Engineering and CiSTUP
Indian Institute of Science (IISc)
Bangalore, India
Email: ashishv@civil.iisc.ernet.in

Integrated EST Policy & Resilience

Building
Resilient

LivableSustainableCities
2Present Challenges for Emerging economies

Inadequate publictransportation system
Rising incomes & rising private
vehicle demand
Environmental degradation
Transport Infrastructure Failure
Poor land use transport
integration
Poor Road Safety3Future of Mobility:Developing (BRIC) Vs Developed(OECD)
900
800

1900–2010

Cars per 1,000 population

700

1900–2008600

1950–2010
1945–2009

500
400
300
1996–2012200

2000–2012100
1996–2011

0

0

5,000

1996–2011

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000GDP per capita [1990 int. GK$]

(Source: The Future of driving in Developing Countries, ifmo 2014)

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Economic growth not the sole measure ofincreasing Automobility- OECDcountries

At roughly $20,000 GDP
per capita,3 Japanesedrivers drive less than half
as many kilometers asAmerican drivers(Source: The Future of driving in Developing Countries, ifmo 2014)

5Future of Mobility:Forecasted Saturation level for VKT(personal vehicle)

6(Source: The Future of driving in Developing Countries, ifmo 2014)

Future of Mobility:
Forecasted Saturation level for VKT(personal vehicle)
China

India

12000

Japan

Germany

1. Spatial dispersion
2. Effective
transportation
policies

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

China

India

Japan

Germany(Source: The Future of driving in Developing Countries, ifmo 2014)7

India Vs other BRIC cities
CountryRoad Length Km

Brazil

1,581,181

China

4,106,387

India

4,690,342

Russia1,094,000

Cluster

Population rangeA˃ 10 millionB

5-10 million

C1-5 millionD˂ 1 million

8(Source: Verma et al.,2015.Urban mobility trends in BRIC)

Provision of NMT Infrastructure(Source: Verma et al.,2015.Urban mobility trends in BRIC.)

9

Congestion(Source: Verma et al.,2015.Urban mobility trends in BRIC)

10Transport Demand(Source: Verma et al.,2015.Urban mobility trends in BRIC.)

11

Road Fatality(Source: Verma et al.,2015.Urban mobility trends in BRIC.)

12

Fossil fuel consumption(Source: Li Jun,.2011.Decoupling urban transport from GHG emissions in Indian
13cities—A critical review and perspectives )Carbon Dioxide Emissions
For Developed And Developing Countries( Source: Energy Information administration International Energy
outlook2003)

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Carbon Dioxide Emissions
BRICS

With the exception of
the RussianFederation, CO2emissions from theBRICS countries are
increasing at a very
fast pace.

(Source: IEA statistics, 2013)15

Emissions
Country
United states

Per capita CO2 emissions
(Mt)
17.6

Japan

19.2

Australia

16.9

UK

7.9

China

6.2India

1.7

Bangladesh

0.4

Myanmar

0.2(Source: World Bank,2013
www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/08/19/coastal-cities-at-highest-risk-floods)
16Vulnerability to Climate change In terms of the overall cost of Damage cost When measured as1) Guangzhou,

1) Guangzhou

damage, the cities at the greatest riskare:2) Miami,3) New York,4) New Orleans,5) Mumbai,

6) Nagoya,7) Tampa,

8) Boston,9) Shenzen, and
10) Osaka

percentage of GDP :2) New Orleans;

3) Guayaquil, Ecuador;
4) Ho Chi Minh City;5) Abidjan;

6) Zhanjing;7) Mumbai;

Developing country cities
move up the list8) Khulna, Bangladesh;

9) Palembang, Indonesia; and
10) Shenzen.

(Source: World Bank,2013
www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2013/08/19/coastal-cities-at-highest-risk-floods)

17Implications for Developing nation like India• 53 million plus cities• By 2030, around 40% of India’s population will be living in urban areas.
• Number of personal vehicles

per 1000 population projected to be 230
vehicles in 2020 which is a 90 % increase from what it was in 2012.

• 32 % of motor vehicles are in metropolitan cities alone, which constitute justaround 11% of the total population.

• Estimated 5-fold increase in energy demand and carbon emissions intransport by 2020 relative to 2000 under the current trend.

• Increasing car mobility & decreasing mobility for pedestrians, cyclists, Public
transport.

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Policy Interventions:
To build & learn from

BEIJING:

Area Differential Parking Pricing Policy

 2% less vehicles parking in on-road parking spots and 19% lessin off-road parking which helped free up spaces and reduce VKT
as well as vehicle trips.
 This lead to a 12% decrease in the monitored traffic flow aroundparking areas
 A survey of drivers found that 27% drove less or switched toanother mode of transport.
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SINGAPORE• Revised Carbon Emissions-Based Vehicle Scheme (CEVS) to further
encourage vehicle buyers to go for low carbon emission models.

• Cars with high carbon emissions equal to or more than 186g

CO2/km will incur a registration surcharge of between $5,000 and$30,000.

• Limited number of Certificate of Entitlement (COE) thatare required for purchasing cars and are costly.

• At present 65% of commuters use public transport due tosuccessful congestion charging system.

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SINGAPORE :The future

More than

700 kms of cycling paths by 2030

That’s more than

3x the lengthof Singapore’scoastline

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AMSTERDAM• Environmental legislation passed in the mid-1990semphasizing a preference for public transport and bicycles.

• Policy instruments:• Paid parking• Congestion charging• Bicycle
infrastructuretransfer facilities• Road Safety Strategic Plan
2008-2020• As of today 70% journeys
made by bicycles.

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CALIFORNIA• In the 1960s, California had the worst air pollution in the world.

• Between 1968 to 2008, California reduced vehicular emissions ofGHG by 75 - 90 per cent while its population increased by 100 percent, the number of vehicles increased by 175 per cent and its diesel
consumption as well as miles travelled increased by 225 per cent.

• Achieved through:• Fuel quality improvements & Refining• Stringent emission standards• Installation of fuel efficient devices in heavy duty vehicles.
• CARB (California Air Resources Board) works with public, scientificinstitutions, local governments to find solutions to vehicular pollutionproblems.
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The Road Ahead
Development choices to decouple economic growth from private
motorization growth
A Multi-tier approach that includes comprehensive urban planning,
improved policy making, effective economic instruments among others
Creating opportunities for cities to use existing transport infrastructure
wisely, while generating funds to improve sustainable transport options
Developing cities such as India have a challenging opportunity to build asystem in which public transport & NMT become the first choice formobility.
Long run endeavor of ‘Avoid-Shift-Improve’ Approach to build resilient &sustainable cities.
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Potential Role of Research& Scientific Community• Collaborations on both technology front and policy solutions.
• Bringing researchers together to help reduce global problems of climatechange, air pollution among others.

 CLIMATRANS (Indo-Norway Project on assessing policies for Climatechange mitigation & adaptation for transport sector in Indian cities ).

Joint Initiative by Institute of Transport Economics(Toi) Norway,
Meteorological Institute Norway (MET), Indian Institute Of Science( IISc)
Bangalore, Indian Institute Of Technology(IIT) Bombay, School of Planning& Architecture( SPA )Delhi, The Energy and Resources Institute( TERI),New Delhi. Ongoing since August 201426

Potential Role of Research& Scientific Community
 Promoting Low Carbon Transport in India.
Initiative by United Nations Environment Project (UNEP). Indian
Institute of Management, Ahmedabad (IIM-A), Centre for Environmental
Planning and Technology University (Cept) and Indian Institute ofTechnology Delhi (IIT-D) , Ministry of Environment ,Ministry of Urban
Development, Govt.Of India to envision a carbon free transportation forthe country in the year 2050

 ICAMP (India-California Air Pollution Mitigation Program), 2014.

Joint Initiative by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) India ,University of California at San Diego (UCSD) & California Air Resources
Board(CARB)

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(Source: GIZ
http://transportandclimatechange.org/)

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THANK YOU
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