Developing Low Carbon
Urban Transportation Policies

Wei-Shiuen Ng
Postdoctoral Scholar
Precourt Energy Efficiency Center
Stanford University
UNCRD-NU EST Symposium
March 19, 2015

CO2 Emissions by Sector
Othersectors
10%Electricity andHeat
Production
42%

Transportation
23%

Manuf.
Industries andConstruction
20%

Other Energy
Industry own
use*
5%World CO2 Emissions by Sector in 2012
Source: IEA, 2014
* Includes emissions from own use in petroleum refining, themanufacture of solid fuels, coal mining, oil and gas extraction andother energy-producing industries.

U.S. CO2 Emissions by Sector in 2012
Source: Inventory of U.S. GHG Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2012

Transportation Energy Demand by Fuel
3,500
3,000

MTOE

2,500
2,000

Renewables

1,500

Coal

1,000Gas
Oil5000Year
Data Source: BP World Energy Outlook 2035 (2015)

Transportation Energy Demand by Region
3,500

3,000

2,500

Asia Pacific

2,000
MTOE

AfricaMiddle East
1,500

Europe & Eurasia
S & C America
North America

1,00050001990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2013

2015

2020

Year

Data Source: BP World Energy Outlook 2035 (2015)

202520302035

Achieving Low Carbon Transportation Systems
Low Carbon Fuels

Advanced Vehicle TechnologyIncrease Low Carbon Travel Activity

Transportation and Land Use PlanningProjections of Transportation Emissions in North America– Carbon 2050 (Schipper, Ng, Gould, and Deakin, 2010)
4000

Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MMT)

3500

3000

2500

Freight2000

Travel
1500

1000

5000
2005 Emissions

2050 BAU

2050 Emissions Glocal

2050 Emissions Global

Glocalization: Local transportation concerns lower distance traveled and create modal
shifts, through significant changes in land use and transportation planning.
Globalization: Strong international cooperation to decrease CO2 emissions leads toinnovations in vehicle technologies and stricter standards.

Policy Assumptions – Carbon 2050
Transportation Technologies and Strategies
 Fuel economy standards
 Advanced vehicle technology
 Alternative transportation fuels
 Intelligent transportation systems
Land Use Planning and Transit
 Public transportation investment
 Transit-oriented development
 Jobs-housing balance Urban design
Pricing Instruments
 Fuel and vehicle taxation
 Carbon emission taxation
 Congestion pricing scheme Parking pricing strategies

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) Systems

Quito, Ecuador (Photo: ITDP, 2015)

Other Characteristics
 High speed, high capacity bus service
 Can be implemented quickly, incrementally, and flexibly Less costly than light rail and freeway expansion
 Image and brandingSmart Parking
Parking Pricing Strategies Demand-responsive
 Variable and dynamic by block, time ofday and day of the week Smart meters for data collection
Benefits Reduce cruising and congestion
 Reduce emissions
 Reduce traffic and travel time for drivers
and non-drivers

Source: SF Park

Pilot Programs in Several Cities
 San Francisco
 New York
 Seattle

Source: Nedap Wireless Parking Sensors

Incentives and Social Interaction
Capri and Off-Peak Commuting
 Shifts people in time and space Participants avoid peak times to earncredits
 Redeem credits for rewards
 Cash prizes of $2 to $50

Photos: Stanford CapriPolicy Implications for Low Carbon Transportation
Changing Travel Behavior and Shifting Mode Choices
 Seamless multi-modal options
 Incentives can be more effective than penalties
 Introduce sense of social interactions (gaming and competition)
 Targeted policies for different user groups based on behavior“Nobody wants to always drive but the alternatives are painful.”(Regular Driver, UC Berkeley Employee)