A New Strategy forInternational Diplomacy on
Climate ChangeDavid G. Victor
University of California, San Diego
ALPS International Symposium, Tokyo
27 February 2013

Global Warming Gridlock… a book published by Cambridg
University PressToday1. Some bad news from climate scientists
2. Some bad news from climate diplomats

1. Beyond Gridlock
2. Managing Climate Impacts

1. Some Bad News From ClimateScientists

World Emissions of GHGs, 1970-2010

Source: EDGAR databases; all GHGs converted 100 year GWPs

Professor Kaya’s
Drivers of Emissions Growthsource: updated from Steckel et al using data from IEA (2012)

Future Emissions
140120Baseline

GtCO2(e) per year

10080
Fragmented

6040G820450CO2e02010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100-20Year

26 Long term runs from 7 models that explore four different visions of the world: baseline emissions, policy that is fragmented, policythat is consistent with the public proclamations of the G8 (ie, industrialized countries cutting emissions 80% by 2050, full implementationof the Copenhagen pledges, and substantial reductions by developing countries), and optimal policies needed to stabilize emissions at450ppm CO2(e), which is broadly consistent with warming of about 2 degrees. NOTE: based on unpublished EMF27 runs.

2. Some Bad News From ClimateDiplomats

A Kyoto Perspective on Emissions, 1990 to 2010
300%

Kyoto Annex I
Percent Change in Emissions 1990-2010

250%

200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

Source: Olivier et al (2011), EDGAR Industrial CO2Kyoto
Kyotonon-Annex
non-AnnexI I

Declining Regulatory Impact of Kyoto:
Percent World Emissions Included in Annex B of Kyoto Protocol originally (1997), as ratified(2008-2012), and as Amended in Doha (2012).
70%
60%

59%

50%
40%30%

23%
20%

13%
10%

0%
Original Kyoto Protocol (% 1997emissions)

Countries that Ratified and Stayed
Inside the Original Kyoto Protocol(%2010 emissions)

Amendment Agreed At Doha(%2011 emissions)3. Beyond Gridlock

Is Climate Too Hard?

No, but breaking gridlock requires
strategy…

Strategy 1: work in small groups

14Strategy #2: Embrace Fragmentation
Expert Assessments

UN Legal Regimes(UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol, formal
funding mechanisms, nonbinding politicalagreements [e.g., Copenhagen Accord])Montreal Protocol(regulation of ozone-depleting gasesthat also affect climate warming)

Subnational Action(e.g., California’s emission
trading system w/int’l offsets;
subnational procurement rules)

Geoengineering Governance(e.g., ocean dumping rules for iron fertilization;
possible regulation under Convention on
Biological Diversity or new treaties)(IPCC; national assessments)

Adaptation Initiatives(e.g., programs by UN agencies andmultilateral development banks [MDBs])

Bilateral Initiatives(e.g., Norway-Indonesia;US-India; UK-China)

Clubs(e.g., MEF, APP, G20, G8)

Multilateral Development Assistance(e.g., “mainstreaming” climate at MDBs; World Bank
prototype carbon fund; clean energy & adaptation funds)

Nuclear Technology(e.g., nuclear suppliers’ groupprovisions to accommodate US-Indianuclear partnership)

Financial Market Rules(e.g., regulation of cross-borderemission trading)Intellectual Property and Investment Rules

International Trade Regime(e.g., clean energy provisions in bilateral investment treaties)(e.g., possible GATT/WTO action toaccommodate border tariff adjustments)

Source: Keohane and Victor (2011)

Strategy #3: look for quick leverage

Source: Shindell et al (2012)

May 2012 Issue of Foreign Affairs…

800

Strategy #4: Rewire Trade Rules

Net Transfer of Embodied Emissions, MMTCO2600

Industrialized Countries
400200EU27USAJapan

0Russia

ChinaIndia

SouthAfrica-200-400

Developing Countries-600-800
Shown: Net Transfers of CO2 embodied in goods traded, 1990 (blue bars) and 2010 (red bars), with totals for trade
between Annex B (industrialized) and non-Annex B (developing) countries in solid bars
Source: based on Peters et al (2011); TSTRD data by courtesy Glen Peters

800

Strategy #4: Rewire Trade Rules

Net Transfer of Embodied Emissions, MMTCO2600

Industrialized Countries
400200EU27USAJapan

0Russia

ChinaIndia

SouthAfrica-200-400

Developing Countries-600-800
Shown: Net Transfers of CO2 embodied in goods traded, 1990 (blue bars) and 2010 (red bars), with totals for trade
between Annex B (industrialized) and non-Annex B (developing) countries in solid bars
Source: based on Peters et al (2011); TSTRD data by courtesy Glen Peters

Who will lead?

Diminishing U.S. Share
1990 (left) and 2010 (right)

World total: 21.8 billion tonnes

World total: 31.5 billion tonnesSource: ILAR analysis of CDIAC emission data (fossil fuel CO2 only)4. Managing Climate Impacts:
Adaptation & Geoengineering

VOLCANIC ERUPTION PHOTO: PAGE 2123

Thank You

How Long Will It Take?

Simple, Rapid Substitution:
Cars for Horses

U.S. CO2 emissions from Electricity
3000

Million Metric Tons of CO22500

Gas

2000

1500

Oil

1000

Coal500

0

1973

1977

1981

1985

1989

1993
Year

1997

2001

2005

2009

Slow Pace of Change:
Share of U.S. Energy Consumption, 1850-2000(Quadrillion Btu)
100%
1882: Edison’s Pearl Street
Station opens in NYC

90%
1908: Ford’s Model T

80%
70%Wood

1957: Shipping Port
Reactor online

CoalCoal60%

Natural Gas
Petroleum
Nuclear Electric Power

50%Oil
40%

Gas

30%
20%10%0%
1850

1870

1890

1910

Source: Energy Information Administration/Annual Energy Review 2000

1930

1950

1970

1990

Hydroelectric PowerWood

U.S. Federal Energy RD&D Spending:1980 to 2010, Major Proposals to 2025
250.10%As % of GDP

Billions 2010 dollars

200.05%150.00%
1980

1990

2000

2010*

2020

10501980

1990

2000

2010*

Sources: IEA; BEA; DOE Budget (2009-2011 estimates); ILAR/UCSD analysis
RD&D Proposals: Climate Group (red circles), Gates/Immelt (yellow diamond), Obama 2010 budget vision (green triangle), IEA (bluesquare)

2020

FIGURE 4: CLIMATE REMEDIATION (GENERAL) - PAGE 11

D. W. Keith (2001). Geoengineering. Nature, 409: 420.

31

FIGURE 6: SOLAR RADIATION MANAGEMENT (SRM) - PAGE 25

Modified from Kiehl and Trenberth (1997).

32

Strategies for Overcoming Gridlock
1. Work in “clubs” rather than universally
2. Focus on high leverage issues rather than“comprehensive” all gases and sectors
3. Focused on practical, conditional “pledges”
rather than abstract emission targets
4. Engage “reluctant” countries
5. Expect fragmented rather than integrated law

Learning Curve for Solar PV Modules

Source: NearZero.org expert elicitation on PVBrazil – Ethanol Learning Curve
Oil-equivalent price $/bbl

200
Producer
Producerprice
price

150
100

Cumulative
subsidy
Estimated
1billion $Regression
Regression“Buy-Down”

50

price
OilOilprice030
30 %% cost
cost reduction
reduction
forfor each
each doubling
doublingofof cum.
cum. production
production$2billion
0.6 billion $0.3 billion $ ??

Data:
Data: Goldenberg,Goldenberg, 1996
1996

197801985

101988 1990

201995

3066
Cumulative
production
106 10bbl
Cumulative
production
production
10bbl

Source: Grübler, 2002; Goldemberg, 1996

Technological Uncertainties:
Learning rates (push) and market growth (pull)
1.5

1.5
0.1%

Cost index ($/kW)

Nuclear Reactors France 1977-2000

1.0

1.0
50% interval
90% intervalmean learning rate
(115 case studies):-20% per doubling

0.5

0.5PVs Japan
1976-1995
0.1%

0.0012

3

4

0.0
5

67

8

9

10

1112

Number of doublings (installed capacity)

131415

Share of U.S. Electric Power Supply(reported in Monthly Energy Review, table 7.2)
0.6
120.5
100.4
80.3
60.2
40.1
200

1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
Price of Natural Gas($/mmbtu, reported in Heren via BP)

Coal and Gas Shares in U.S. Electric Supply