"CEAC Commentary" introduces news analyses andopinions in Japan on topics related to regional
cooperation and integration in East Asia, but they do
not represent the views of CEAC as an institution.

February 19, 2014

The Growing Effect of the Chinese Communist
Party’s Propaganda Campaign Strategy
By SUZUKI Keisuke
On January 6, Financial Times published Gideon Rachman’s editorial headlined “TheTime to think more about Sarajevo, less about Munich.” To put it shortly, the article says that the“lesson of Sarajevo” is more suggestive than the “lesson of Munich” in the current internationalsituation. The lesson of Munich means that when Nazi Germany was rising with military ambitionsin 1938, Britain and France failed to properly evaluate its threats, shelved the situation and did nottake a resolute action against Hitler in the initial stage, which eventually led to the outbreak of WorldWar II. The lesson of Sarajevo means that after the assassination of an Austrian archduke in Sarajevo
in the summer of 1914, countries around the world failed to make serious efforts for peace amidst
nationalism and international stratagems and drifted to war, which triggered the outbreak of WorldWar I.

The article also mentions Syria and other topics, but mainly focuses on the situations
surrounding East Asia. I do not think I need to make a fuss about one newspaper’s editorial.
However, I would like to write about my concern about the article for the following reasons. First,
Financial Times is a fairly influential newspaper. Second, it is clear that the article is based on a
mistaken recognition of the current situation. Third, this columnist who covers diplomatic issues has
also ever written editorials that are based on the viewpoint of the Chinese Communist Party. To put itbriefly, the recognition that it is the time to think more about Sarajevo, less about Munich, in thecurrent East Asian situation turns out just as what Nazi Germany wanted and what the Chinese
Communist Party and the North Korean Workers' Party want today. I have to say that this way ofthinking may end up slipping this region into war.

With regard to the mistake of Munich, though it was quite clear that Nazi Germany wasrapidly beefing up its military muscle with a political intention to grab European hegemony by war,other European nations mistakenly thought that the Nazis was fundamentally not evil and wereirrationally optimistic about their analyses of the situation. Above all, other European nations lacked
the strong political will to stop the Nazis from becoming uncontrollable and missed the perfecttiming for handling the situation. Meanwhile, for the mistake of Sarajevo, it seems that with eachplayer accelerating military build-ups against the background of nationalism, the situation

automatically escalated with no will for either war or peace.

It may be considerably clear which case the current East Asian situation, especially theChinese Communist Party’s actions and the actions taken by Japan, the United States, Taiwan,Vietnam, the Philippines and Australia against China, are closer to. Unless you swallow the “Chinese
strategic logic” that Japan’s actions is the one that cause instability in the region, it will beunthinkable that the situation is similar to post-Sarajevo.

As a matter of fact, Japan’s actions in the East China Sea have always been reactions
against China’s actions and Japan’s action levels have never exceeded those of China (e.g. when theChina Coast Guard came in, the Japan Coast Guard reacted) . China’s military actions in the East
China Sea derive from its unstable domestic situation, Sinocentrism and its history of repeatedmilitary aggressions against neighbors. This is clear from the following facts. You can see similar
things in the South China Sea as well as in the East China Sea. China remarkably deviates from theinternational rules in other areas, such as environment and intellectual property rights, and thecountry is also trying to change the rules. All of China’s actions are based on its strategy for creating
an environment in which China can force its self-interest on other countries by removing thepresence of U.S. forces in East Asia and by establishing hegemony in Asia. The presence of U.S.
forces in the region can almost be regarded as public goods because they have contributed tomaintaining regional peace for many years.

For armaments, Japan does not have any military capacity to attack neighboring countries
on the basis of its strictly defensive defense policy. In contrast, China is rapidly developing thedeployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles, weapons of mass destruction including nuclear
weapons, aircraft carriers and submarines capable of launching nuclear warhead missiles. This
contrast between the two nations clearly shows the reality of “escalation.”If the columnist can just analyze the situation objectively and knows the journalistic basics
of focusing on facts, that is, what the Chinese Communist Party is “doing,” not what it is “saying,”
he will definitely not argue that the current East Asian situation is closer to Sarajevo, not Munich.

Conversely, judging from the fact that even the quality paper with world-class reputations
ran such an article, you can say that the Chinese Communist Party’s propaganda campaign strategy,
similar to that of Nazi Germany, is spreading around the world. The story does not end withFinancial Times. Chinese tycoon Chen Guangbiao’s failed attempt to buy the New York Times andbiased articles of the Wall Street Journal’s Tokyo branch suggest that information warfare may be
being manipulated according to the Chinese Communist Party’s scenario. Japan’s future peace andsecurity are based on its alliance with the United States and depend heavily on how Japan cancommunicate truths to international public opinions. Especially, this is the timing when the Obamaadministration is facing the shaken determination for military commitment to world peace. In thissense, Japan has no time to lose for its diplomatic rollback.
(This is an English translation of the article written by Mr. SUZUKI Keisuke, Memberof the House of Representatives, which originally appeared on the e-forum“Hyakka-Somei” of CEAC on January 15, 2014.)