Open Project on Stock Sustainability Management

Principal Investigator:
Implementation:

Professor Hidefumi Kurasaka, Graduate School of Humanitiesand Social Sciences, Chiba University
Chiba University, Shibaura Institute of Technology, NationalInstitute for Environmental Studies

Collaborating Local Authorities:

Yachiyo City, Ichihara City, Tateyaa City, Chiba
PrefectureChanges in the population of Japan (Sources) White Paper: Information andCommunications in Japan, 2012 , Census and Population Estimate, Ministry ofInternal Affairs and Communication; ‘Trend of the Births, Deaths and their Rates(as of October 1 each year)’ in ‘Population Projection for Japan’ (January2012),the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research;
Population Trends Statistics, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Long term projection by the National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research

At the same time, ageing continues. As aresult, the decrease in working-age
population exceeds the general decline inpopulation.

Global warmingandenvironmentaldegradation

1861-1880に対する気温上昇（℃）

Population
declineand ageing

The population of Japan has been declining since2008, when it peaked at 128,080,000. According
to the National Institute of Population and Social
Security Research, it is estimated to go below 100
million around 2050 and to be in the 80 millions in2060. Due to WWII, the population declined byabout 2.3 million from 1944 to 45, but it began torecover in the following year. The prediction isthat from now on, on average more than 0.8
million people would be lost every year until 2060.

The number of wild boar caught in Chiba Prefecture

Accumulation of man-made CO2 emissions since 1879
(converted to greenhouse gases)(Source) Summary for policy makers, IPCC Fifth Evaluation
Report from the First Working Group.

The Paris Agreement was adopted at COP21 in December
2015. This has set the framework for anti-global warming
measures from 2020. 196 countries have agreed that theaverage rise of global temperatures compared to theIndustrial Revolution phase should be kept under 1.5°C, if
possible, and that the revised objectives will be stricter thanthe pre-revision ones. It has been reported that in order tokeep the rise of average global temperature within 2°C,
greenhouse gas emissions should cease or be in the negative
within this century. We have to change the way we supply
energy from our dependence on fossil fuel.

(Source) ‘Wild Boar Policy, Chiba Prefecture’, 2013

Domestically, environmental degradation is aproblem caused by the lack of management byhuman beings due to population decline. An
increasing number of regions are facing
problems of wildlife overpopulation, such as
wild boar and deer.

Japan at a crossroads: Various challenges due to the decline in population
The total cost for developing infrastructure, including
maintenance, was about 5 trillion yen in 1965, but it
exceeded 30 trillion yen in 1995 and now has stabilized atjust below 20 trillion yen. All of the roads and ports thatwere developed at the same time are coming to the endof their durable life. If they were updated at the samepace, the cost for updates and maintenance would jump
to about 15 trillion yen in 2030, double the figure today. Itis estimated that the cost will stay at the same level forthe following twenty years or more.
Changes in population and extension of water, sewage and gas pipes in
Tateyama City, Chiba Prefecture

Ageinginfrastructure

2With the decline of population, it is feared thatpeople become more autonomous. Forinstance, the index ‘number of newborn babies
in a 1 km2 area’ shows that while the national
average was about 7 in 1947, it will be about
2.8 in 2030 and will be below 2 in 21
prefectures. A society in which one does nothave any childhood friends within walking
distance is approaching. The proportion of
single-person households will increase from
31.2% in 2010 to 37.4% in 2030, with about
40% of the population living alone.

Disappearanceof communities,
autonomous
societySource) Compiled based on ‘Statistics of Tateyama City’

Even if the population declines, cities do not
automatically shrink. The cities may continue toexpand, which could lead to thinning of theinfrastructure.

As the relationship among people thins out,
problems such as death alone and an
autonomous society will intensify. Some local
authorities might disappear altogether.

(Source) Compiled from ‘Household projection for Japan(national projection), March 2008 by the National
Institute of Population and Social Security Research

3

The foundation for the sustainability of society is people.
Society exists when individuals are healthy. It is therefore
necessary to develop a supportive environment for giving
birth and raising children, and to expand educational services.
In addition to securing medical and care services, it isnecessary to limit the growth of medical and social security
expenses as much as possible by making sure people arehealthy.

Childcare

Production using
renewable energy

Agricultural land
maintenance

Education
Medicine

Human Capital

Humanstock

Care

When nature is left unattended, its function declines andecological services weaken. Artificially maintained nature, suchas manmade forests and paddy fields, requires continuous care.
Fossil fuels and mining resources are natural resource stocks thatcan be depleted. On the other hand, renewable energy andbiological resources can be used sustainably with the correct
methods. It is important to maintain nature carefully and toswitch from depletable resources to renewable resources.

Forestmaintenance

Natural Capital

Naturalstock

Fish stock
maintenanceTo sustain healthy stocks which supports happy lives
MaterialstockArchitecture

Material Capital

Repair
Maintenance of buildings andinfrastructure is already a challenge in thepublic sector. From now on, we need adesign for manufacturing which takes into
account energy consumption, repair of
the manufactured goods, and disposal andrecycling at the end of their life. There will
be an increasing excess in Material Capitalwhich has been already created. It is
important to develop business shares
which make use of it.

4

SocialstockSocial Capital

Recycling
SharingIndustrial sector tomaintain stockCommunity
NPOs

Publicservice

In order to foster relationships andcollaboration between people, it isimportant to create a goal for which
everyone works. It would also be
useful to design towns to maximize
energy and to have systems to keepthem compact. The industrial sector
which maintains various kinds ofcapital and stock is called the‘sustainability sector’ and the local
authorities and community NPOs arein charge of its development.

5In order to secure the sustainability of stock
The challenges and responses to them should beconsidered in a particular context

National

Wider area
local
authorities

Management should
respond to local needs
Different
fromcommunity
tocommunity

The
community
should dowhat they
are able todo.

The smaller the local authority, themore they lack talent and information.

Stock taking ofcommunity’sstockComplementarity
principle

Who should secure the sustainability ofstock?

Basic local
authorities
Complementarity principle: What can be dealt
with by the basic administrative unit should beleft to that unit, and a wider administrative unit
should deal with other issues.

Why do we have to sustain society?

The future generation is an
important member of thecommunity
Let’s pass onwhat we havebeen given by
the previousgeneration.

Futuresimulation

Research into
relationships

It is called OPoSSuM, Open Project on Stock Sustainability Management.

The project obtained funding from the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) and the Research Instituteof Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) in 2014 under the ‘designing sustainable multi-generational, cocreational society’ research and development area.
The participants of the project are: Chiba University, Shibaura Institute of Technology, National Institute forEnvironmental Studies, Ichihara City, Yachiyo City, Tateyama City, and Chiba Prefecture. Principal Investigator:Professor Hidefumi Kurasaka, Chiba University.

But the future
generation does not
do anything for thepresent generation.
Why can’t we
do what wewant to donow?

Our generation
should not use up
resources.

A sense of a diachronic
community: Awarenessthat there is a‘community’ whichstarted in the past andgoes through the present
into the future.

Having said
that….

Our research project will support these6

Increased awareness of hand-over fromone generation to another‘Individual’s welfare is connected to the community which spreads from the past to
the future’
Kenneth Boudling, ‘Economics of the Spaceship Earth’

In order to raise this awareness, we need a device to capture thepast generation’s hopes and to hand them down to the future
generation.

Futureworkshop

Is it OK for only
the seniorgeneration todecide?

How can we
get youngpeople toparticipate?

7

We help you understand the current situation ofcommunity stock.
We process existing statistics to enable you to carry out comparison among
local authorities. A range of information is accessible on our web site(http://opossum.chiba-u.jp/).

http://opossum.chiba-u.jp/stock.html

Distribution

Stock taking ofcommunity stock

http://opossum.chiba-u.jp/atlas/atlas.html

Maps

The care levels required forpatients with certified needs

Road
extension
per capita(km)A number of items can bemapped. You can also
zoom into a region.

Total area of publiclyowned asset/population

You can compare local
authorities with any axis
regarding various items.
This shows the availability of medical
and care services in nearby local
authorities.
Total forest
area/population

Visual comparison among
local authorities of thesame size can be carriedout.

The capacity of special andordinary care homes/thenumber of long-term
patients with certified needs.

Deviation
Available comparative items【指標 1-1】15-64 歳人口／全人口【指標 1-2】自市区町村で従業している就業者数／15-64 歳人口【指標 2-1-1】幼稚園・保育所在籍者数／0-5 歳人口【指標 2-1-2】小学校児童数／6-11 歳人口【指標 2-1-3】中学校生徒数／12-14 歳人口【指標 2-2-1】小学校児童数／小学校教員数【指標 2-2-2】中学校生徒数／中学校教員数【指標 3-1-1】国民健康保険被保険者１人当たり診療費【指標 3-1-2】病院・一般診療所病床数合計／人口【指標 3-1-3】医療施設医師数／人口【指標 3-2-1】要介護認定者数／65 歳以上人口【指標 3-2-2】要介護者認定者の必要介護レベル【指標 3-2-3】養護･介護老人ホーム等定員数合計／要介護認定者数【指標 4-1】課税対象所得／人口【指標 4-2】財政力指数【指標 4-3】経常収支比率8【指標 4-3】実質公債比率【指標 5-1】公有財産建物総面積／人口【指標 5-2】住宅総数／人口【指標 5-3】平均住宅年齢【指標 5-4】道路延長／人口【指標 5-5-1】一般廃棄物最終処分場残余容量／一般廃棄物最終処分量【指標 5-5-2】一般廃棄物自自治体最終処分場埋立量/一般廃棄物最終処分量【指標 6-1】再生可能エネルギー生産量／地域的エネルギー需要量【指標 6-2-1】耕地面積／人口【指標 6-2-2】耕作放棄地面積／（耕地面積＋耕作放棄地面積）【指標 6-3】地域的食糧自給率【指標 6-４】林野面積／人口【指標 6-5】可住地面積／人口We are also developing a way
to display deviation to facilitatecomparison in the same areaor among local authorities ofthe same size on a range ofitems.

Artist’s rendering

9We are developing future simulators in order to identify
challenges to community stock in 25 years’ time.
We are developing future simulators in order to predict the ways inwhich the gap between demand and supply for maintaining humancapital (childcare, education, medicine and care), the gap between
demand and supply of housing, the cultivation gap in agricultural lands,
and the gap between revenue and expenditure in finance emerge as thetrends continue by local authority.
Industrial structure
simulator

The number of people in work byindustry, 2040 (Japan)

Human capital
simulator
We predict supply and demand inchildcare, educational, medical andcare services according to changes inpopulation and industrial structure.

Drawing from the long term population projection,
we predict the industrial structure of 2040 on theassumption that the trends in the number of people
employed by industry and by age since 2000 willcontinue.

８４.７%

７８.２%

(2040/2015)(2040/2015)

Population

Employed people

107,275,850

44,897,751

Futuresimulators

Natural capital
simulator
We work out the amount of labornecessary to maintain the current level ofcultivation based on the numbers ofagricultural workers and effects of job
creation, while making the most of naturalcapital such as artificial forests.
The number of households and houses (Ichihara City)

Housingsimulator
We predict the amount of housing
based on when the existing stock wasbuilt and compare it with householdprojections.

Financesimulator
It is estimated that the Japanese population will shrink by about 15% in 2040 compared
to 2015; the number of people employed is predicted to decrease by 20%. In particular,
ageing in primary and secondary industries will be significant and there is a huge
reduction in the number of people employed.

10We predict future revenue andexpenditure, taking into accountpopulation, the number of people
employed by the industry, and thecost of infrastructure upgrades.

2040／2015

Our project is working to producea ‘future card’ which summarizes
results of future simulations by
the local authority or the region.

11

We research the relationships between people according to
the local context.
We have developed a ‘resource generator survey’ tailored to the local
conditions in order to comprehend the situation of social capital by age
group and ward in each local authority. In this method, we gather diverse
residents of the area and carry out a discussion on the ‘ties’ among theresidents. This is followed by a questionnaire.

Discussion on ‘ties’

Compilation of the resource list

Research intorelationships

Desirable ties identified in the group
discussion are summarized in a resource list
(reasons to ask for other’s help).

An example of the resource list

Resource generator: A method to ask
about relationships with acquaintancesfrom whom help can be sought, using aprepared list of about 30 reasons forasking for help.

A group discussion on positive experiences ofrelationships among people and which ties to maintainis carried out with five participants of different
generations and genders (University student, 20s, 30s40s, 50s-60s, and 70 or older).

(Source) Report on ‘The development of evaluation criteria and measurement method of the environment, economy and society
taking into account influences inside and outside the area’, a policy study on environmental economics, commissioned by theMinistry of Environment, 2014

Implementation of resource generator survey
The questionnaire asks whether the respondent has anyone to turn to for each item in
the resource list (family members, relatives, friends, neighbours).
An example of analysis of questionnaire by ward

A groupdiscussion onties in Yachiyo
City

12

The analysis shows therelationships amongresidents by age groupand by ward. This helps
predict the future ofsocial capital by
combining the future
population projection.
(Source) Report on ‘The development of evaluation criteria and measurement method of the environment, economy, and society taking into accountinfluences inside and outside the area’, a policy study on environmental economics, commissioned by the Ministry of Environment, 201413

A future workshop in which secondary school children, as
future mayors of 2040, give advice to current mayors
A workshop with secondary school children, our future, in the driver’s seat.
At the workshop, results of future simulations and research into
relationships are communicated and their understanding of the local area isenhanced by a walk around town. They then make policy recommendations,as the future mayors of 2040, to the current mayor.

Walk around town

Futureworkshop

Walk around the town with a future map ofthe local population of 2040.

Futuremayors of2040
A scene from ‘Ichihara Future Workshop’

Various research findings

Examination of policy
recommendation
The participants write down the challenges of 2040 andmake policy recommendations to the current mayor as
the future mayor.

The results of future simulations (Future Card) and resultsof research into relationships are communicated tosecondary school children in an accessible manner.

Results of the junior high school year 3 group

The current mayor and future mayors together

1415

The progress of this research project is reported on its website: http://opossum.chiba-u.jp

Also, the journal, Public Affairs (Association for Public Affairs,Chiba University), has a special section on a related topic.
http://mitizane.ll.chiba-u.jp/curator/bulletin/kokyo.html

OPoSSuM
The research and development is named ‘OPoSSum,’ anabbreviation of ‘Open Project on Stock Sustainability andManagement,’ which sounds like the animal, ‘opossum.’ Our aim
is to make the project accessible to all.
The project is funded by the Japan Science and Technology
Agency (JST) under its Strategic Basic Research Programs, 2014
New Research Development Area.
Attention: Professor Kurasaka, Graduate School of Humanities and SocialSciences, Chiba University, 1-33 Yayoi Town, Inage Ward, Chiba City, 263-8522
Tel. & Fax.: 043-290-3585