Balancing growth inconnectivity with acomprehensive global airtransport response to theclimate emergency:
a vision of net-zero aviation
by mid-century.

SECOND EDITION:SEPTEMBER
2021

The air transport industry is the global network of commercial aircraf t operators,
airports, air navigation service providers and manufacturers of aircraf t and theircomponents. It is responsible for connecting the global economy, providing millions
of jobs and making the modern, internationally-connected quality of life possible.
The Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), based in Geneva, Switzerland, represents
the full spectrum of this global business. ATAG brings the industry together to forma strategic perspective on commercial aviation’s sustainable development and therole that air transport can play in supporting the sustainability of other sectors of
the economy.
www.atag.org
This publication is for information purposes only. Although every ef fort has been
made to ensure the quality and accuracy of information in this publication, it ismade available without any warranty of any kind. All currency is in United States
dollars at 2020/21 prices, unless otherwise stated. Forecasts and forward-looking
statements in this publication are attributed to those organisations referenced, orto the Air Transport Action Group.

Waypoint 2050

1

CONTENTSACKNOWLEDGEMENTSFOREWORDEXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Green recovery provides an extraordinary opportunity for2

The air
Waypoint
project wasby the Air Transport
Action Group Board oftravel:2050
by membersof initiatedthe Air Transport
Action Group.
Directors in 2017 and was assisted by the following 70+ experts from across the airtransport sector, those people below helped with input to both the first and second editionsof Waypoint
2050.
would
like
sincerely CO
thankthem for their expertise andOverview
of aATAG
scenarioforairtotransport
2 emissions
3
dedicated
and a input.
series of action points for industry, governments,

researchers and energy suppliers.

BlueSky: Philippe Bonnefoy www.bluesky-d2d.com
ICF: Alastair Blanshard, Mike McCurdy, Jane Thompson, Angus Reid-Kay, Saloni
A review of the factors that make decarbonisation in
11
THE CHALLENGE
Chokhani
aviationanda globalchallenge.
AeroSpace
DefenceIndustries Association of Europe: Maria Chiara Detragiache
Aerospace Industries Association: David HydeHow the biggest shock in aviation history may impact the
15Sassone,
A NOTE ON COVID-19
Airbus: Kevin Goddard, Andrew Gordon, Olivier Husse, Steven Le Moing, Sandra
pathRauer,
to decarbonisation.
SimoneEric Maury, Mark Galle,
Airlines for America: Nancy Young, Tim Pohle, Ira Dassa
An overview
of the vision foraviationin 2050 andbeyond,19
WAYPOINT 2050
Airports
Council International:
Aram
Karagueuzian,David
Gamper, Guillaumethe Juliana
overarching
scenariosby theprojectand Lucas,
Rodier,Scavuzzi,
Michaelgenerated
Rossell, Nina
Brooks,Patrick
how aviation’s
global goals can factor into the Paris
Rajasundaram
Chidambararaman
Agreement
Airports
Counciltrajectories.
International Europe: Marina Bylinsky
Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines (AAPA): Desmond Yeohandeconomic
shifts will have a profoundSolène Flahault,
BertrandPabon
30a) reviewing traffic ATR:Demographic
impactonNewsum,
the way Amy
air transport
grows
aroundworld,
Boeing:Sean
Bann, Dale
Smith,
Danielthe
M Allyn,
David C Franson, Michael
forecasts
associatedemissions
growth,andAlcabin,policy perspectives.
Lakeman,MohamedAlghailani,
MonicaJoe Ellsworth, Mark Augustyniewicz
British Airways: Andy Kershaw
developments
in Guenon,
technology
will Couillard
help lead to a
CFMHow
International:
Valerie
Francis40b) innovating within emissions,evolutionaryin
Air Navigation
Services throughOrganisation(CANSO):changes
Coleen Hawrysko,
Michelle Bishop,
aircraft technology Civilreduction
Eduardo
Garcia,CANSO Environment
aircraftand Rafael
engineQuezada
design, andto a therevolutionary
approachWorking Group
with electricandfürhydrogenDeutsches
Zentrum
Luft- undsystems.
Raumfahrt / the German Aerospace Center (DLR):
Klaus Lütjens, Thorsten Ehlers, Christian Weder, Florian Linke
EuropeanBusiness
Aviation
Association:
Bruce Parry
Althoughthe mainpathway
to decarbonisationin aviation
60c) improvements
GE Aviation:
Arjan Hegeman,
Jieun Kirtley,
Hermann
Scheugenpflug, Gurhan Andac,
will
rely
heavilyontechnology
andenergysolutions,in operations andThomasRipplinger
a rangeof operational and infrastructure measuresinfrastructure
GeneralAviation
Manufacturers
Association:
AlextoGrose
can help
cut emissions
further
and are ablebeGroupement
des Industries
implemented
sooner. Françaises Aéronautiques et Spatiales (GIFAS): Anne
Bondiou-Clergerie, Corinne Lignet
Heathrow
Airport:Andrew
Chen,
Ben Brewer,
James being
Rose, Matt Prescott 72
Sustainable
fuels
for airtransport
are alreadyd) deploying
Inmarsat:
Mary
McMillan
used
and
will
remainthemostsignificant
opportunityforsustainable
InternationalAir
Traffic Automation
Systems:
Ori Shlooshemissions
reductionin the long-term,
particularly
aviation fuelInternational
Air Transport
Association:
Brian Pearce,
for long-haultraffic. What
will be needed
to rampAndrew Matters, Arnaud Vanolli,
DanielJes Halim
Nauckhoff,
MichaelSchneider,
Robert Boyd, Thomas Roetger,
up Vaca,
deployment
to meetthe needsof net-zero
aviation,
Viktoria
and Bognar,
beyond?Martina Bednarikova
International Airlines Group: Jonathon Counsell, Carrie Harris, Leigh Hudson,
Samuel Gordon
Once all other measures of the industry pillars of action
92e) investing in out- McKinsey:
Daniel Riefer and Clemens Kienzler (SAF feedstock and cost curve analysis)
have been exhausted, there may still be a need forof-sector carbon
NATS: James Deeley
market-mechanisms to bring CO2 emissions down to the
reduction measures Prattindustry& Whitney:
MichaelinWinter,
LarrynotGraygoal.Mary
But Prettyman,the opportunities
2050 maybeRolls-Royce:
Morton,John Salmon
the sameAdam
as thoseavailable
today.
Safran: Benoit Guyon, Chems Chkioua, Nicolas Jeuland
Sustainable Aviation: Andy Jefferson
METHODOLOGY OF ANALYSIS
99
United Airlines: Aaron Robinson, Adrien Gonzales
Virgin Atlantic: Geoff Clark, Ross Hawley
GLOSSARY103
Alejandro Block

REFERENCES

104

Additional input provided for 2021 (second edition) analysis in a workshop with:
International Transport Forum, International Energy Agency, World Economic Forum,
Shell Aviation, Air BP, Energy Transitions Commission, LanzaJet, Neste and theCommercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative.

2

Waypoint 2050

FOREWORD
Net-zero air transport is a challenge,
and an opportunity

There is a reason we have named this report ‘Waypoint2050’. Waypoints are an air navigation tool which provide
a direction of travel for pilots – a clear trajectory for their
mission and guidance on how to get to the destination.
Our destination as an industry is also clear. The ability tocontinue to connect the world over the coming decades,
bridging the divide between cultures, linking families andensuring businesses can grow and prosper.
The impact of the pandemic has shown the importanceof those connections more than ever. But it has also
highlighted another aspect of the mission with which wehave tasked ourselves: to make that connectivity with anever-decreasing impact on our climate.
Waypoint 2050 outlines the paths we can take towards thedecarbonisation of air transport.
The first edition outlined how the sector could reach its goalof halving CO2 emissions by 2050, compared with 2005. That
trajectory was in line with the Paris Agreement “well below
2ºC” goal and could be reached without resorting to out-ofsector emissions reductions as a central pillar of action.
This second edition of Waypoint 2050 goes a step further,
exploring how the sector could meet a greater ambitionof reaching net-zero carbon emissions globally by 2050,aligned with the 1.5ºC stretch goal of the Paris Agreement
and a target that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change has identified is needed to avoid some of the worst
impacts of climate change.
Net-zero is a waypoint on aviation’s path to decarbonisation,and it remains a significant challenge for an industry likeair transport.

Unlike most other sectors, where technology solutions havealready been proven to work, aviation has no off-the-shelf
fix. We need to pursue a rapid and global energy transition
away from fossil fuels and towards sustainable sources ofenergy, some of which are technologically mature but needmassive scaling up. Others, such as fuels produced fromlow carbon electricity, are at the start of their journey frominitial development into our wings.
And there have been remarkable advances in new concepts
in propulsion, such as electric, hydrogen and hybrid
aircraft. More work needs to be done to bring these tocommercial reality. But if there is one thing you can say
about aviation: we never stop innovating.
It took aerospace engineers around 30 years to get us fromthe first commercial air service to the jet engine. The last
30 years have seen us halve the CO 2 emissions for every
passenger’s journey. The next three decades to 2050, andthe ones that follow, will allow us to enter the third era ofaviation: that of sustainable fuels, electric and hybrid flightand, eventually, zero carbon connectivity.
Pivotal in that quest will be bringing experts from across
air transport together with governments and researchers.
Collaboration and engagement of stakeholders fromwithin and outside the aviation sector is essential,
especially for disruptive concepts. It can be done, but
only if we do it together. The challenge is considerable, butnecessary and inspiring.
We are committed to making it a reality.

Haldane Dodd
Executive Director
On behalf of the Board of Directors of the Air Transport Action Group:
Airports Council International (ACI), Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation (CANSO), International Air Transport
Association (IATA), International Business Aviation Council (IBAC), Airlines for America (A4A), Association of AsiaPacific Airlines (AAPA), Airbus, Boeing, CFM International, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce and Safran.

Waypoint 2050

EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
Aviation can play its part in the global
climate mission

3

4

Waypoint 2050

WAYPOINT 2050 IS A COLLABORATION OF EXPERTS FROM ACROSS THE
AVIATION SECTOR, LOOKING AT HOW THE INDUSTRY CAN ACCELERATE
WORKING TOGETHER TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WORLD’S CLIMATE ACTIONMISSION. COLLABORATION IS NOT A NEW WAY OF DOING BUSINESS IN
AVIATION: IT IS CENTRAL TO HOW THE SYSTEM FUNCTIONS. IN 2009, THE
AIR TRANSPORT INDUSTRY SET ONE OF THE FIRST GLOBAL, SECTOR-WIDE,
CLIMATE PLANS FOR ANY INDUSTRY.

In the decade since, airlines have spent over a trillion dollars
on more efficient aircraft1; the aerospace sector has spentover $150 billion on efficiency research and development2;
CO2 emissions per seat kilometre have improved by 21.5%3;
ten new (and significantly more efficient) aircraft types haveentered service (or are about to)4; over 365,000 flights havetaken off on sustainable aviation fuel (which wasn’t evencertified until 2011); the world’s first CO2 standard for aircraft
and the first carbon pricing mechanism for a single global
sector were negotiated and adopted at the International
Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO); and collaboration acrossthe sector has driven efficiency improvements in air traffic
management. It’s been a busy ten years.
But while the industry is accustomed to working together,
the race towards 2050 and beyond is going to require a
considerable acceleration in efforts by partners working
within the aviation sector and with other institutions,particularly governments.
Many countries and industry sectors are putting in place
net-zero emissions goals for 2050, there are different speedsof decarbonisation underway in different parts of the world.
The lack of readily-available solutions for aviation meansthat the sector falls into a category of ‘hard to abate’ parts ofthe economy.
Waypoint 2050 demonstrates, however, that there arepotential options for the almost complete decarbonisationof air transport with the industry at a global level able tomeet net-zero emissions by 2050, with offsetting throughcarbon removal taking account of residual emissions (somecompanies are working to reach this point sooner). This
assumes the right level of support from governments, thefinance sector, the energy industry and research institutions.
The industry itself will need to redouble efforts as well.
There are a range of measures that can help drive aviation
towards the technology, energy system and operational
measures that are required to meet these ambitions. Many ofthese are incredibly challenging, but all are achievable with theright policy environment and the necessary focus of resources.

a) reviewing traffic forecasts
By 2050, it is expected that over 10 billion passengers will
be carried by air some 22 trillion kilometres each year and,without any additional improvement in technology, fuels or
improvements in operations, this activity would generate
close to 2,000 megatonnes (Mt) of CO2 . Demographic shifts
and population changes mean that the central forecast used in
Waypoint 2050 suggests a slowing of growth when comparedwith recent years (even without the impact of Covid-19).
Taking into account the impact of Covid-19 on longer-term
growth trends, we can expect a compound annual growthrate of 3.1% from 2019 until 2050, mainly from Asia-Pacific,
the Middle East, Latin America and Africa, although there
remains significant growth in North America and Europe.
Three factors: environmental concerns from consumers;
governments moving to reduce growth; or a shift to othermodes of transport (such as rail), are expected to have limited
impact on the overall growth picture. Despite this, the sector
must innovate and accelerate the energy transition to low(and, ultimately, zero) carbon fuel sources in order to ensure
its continued licence to operate.

b) innovating with technology
Evolutionary technology will continue to be developed,
bringing with it around a 20% improvement in fuel efficiency
to each generation of aircraft. But in the next 30 years, theindustry will likely see even more radical shifts. By 2050,
it is expected that electric-, hybrid- and hydrogen-powered
propulsion will have the potential to serve regional, short-hauland perhaps some medium-haul markets. Traditional liquid
fuels are expected to remain necessary for long-haul aircraft
and for the remaining short and medium haul aircraft thathave not shifted to electric or hydrogen, but with a transition
towards 100% sustainable and low carbon sources.

c) improvements in operations
and infrastructure
These areas present a vital area of early action to help
the pathway to 2050. A wide range of measures can be
implemented by airlines, airports and air traffic management
to reduce CO2 from the operation, with collaboration playing
a vital role. Importantly, continual improvements are needed
to maintain (or enhance) existing operational efficiency
and to ensure that increasing congestion does not degrade
airspace efficiency.

d) deploying sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)
Perhaps the single largest opportunity to meet and go beyond
the industry’s 2050 goal is the rapid and worldwide scaling up
of sustainable aviation fuel and new energy sources. It is likelythat aviation will need between 330-445 million tonnes of SAF
per annum by 2050. Analysis shows that this is achievable, withrigorous sustainability criteria ensuring a transition that does
not impact food or water use. Rather than relying on a single
option, there are a range of feedstocks available, from non-foodWaypoint 2050

crops to waste sources and eventually a shift to power-to-liquid
fuels made from recycled or directly-captured CO2 and lowcarbon electricity. The scale-up will be a significant challenge:
up to $1.45 trillion worth of investment over the next 30 years
will be required to develop this new energy system, althoughwith the right support from government and the energy sector,
it is far from insurmountable (annualised, it is the equivalentaround 6% of typical oil and gas capital expenditure). Policy
will play a core role in this shift — government support
to channel feedstocks towards aviation and not to othertransport sectors (where alternative energy sources are
already available). It is estimated up to 14 million jobs could
be created or sustained by this shift, creating new energy
industries around the world: where 90% of fossil fuel oil comesfrom just 22 countries today, this new SAF path could open up
opportunities in almost every country.

e) investing in out-of-sector carbon
reduction market-based measures
Aviation will need to turn to carbon offsets in the near-term tostabilise CO2 emissions as it works on long-term, permanent,
in-sector reductions through the ramp-up in alternative energy
and new technology. It is not envisioned that investing in
out-of-sector carbon reduction should be the primary meansof meeting long-term goals. Due to the long time horizonsof fleet turnover and the global nature of the industry, it isexpected that there could be a need to remove residual CO2
emissions, even if aviation manages to meet almost all of its
energy requirements from SAF, and progresses radical newtechnologies. But the types of ‘offsets’ available in 2050 will
likely be different to those available today as demand from othersectors also grows. Forestry, natural carbon sinks and carbon
removal opportunities may play a role in 2050 and beyond.

5

Waypoint 2050 explores three consolidated scenarios for how
air transport can meet its goal. Which of these scenarios plays
out over time will be determined by a number of decisions in
the course of the coming decades, induding:»» How do we prioritise investment in both sustainableaviation fuel deployment and radical new technologies?
»» Can energy providers massively scale up SAF andhydrogen production at the same time?
»» Will governments, finance institutions andconsumers play the role they need to accelerate
the energy transitions?
Whilst the solution will likely be some combination of all the
scenarios, the important lesson learnt from the work in thisreport is that it can be done. Aviation can achieve net zero
emissions at a global level, by 2050. There is enough feedstock
to produce the necessary SAF and hydrogen is a possibility forsome aircraft. Efficiency will continue to improve and modern
air transport will remain a key driver of connectivity, businessand social connections across the world well after the middleof this century.
»» Due to the nature of technology developments, the energy
transition and political realities constantly changing, it isenvisioned that this report may also be subject to change as
the outlook evolves.

6

Waypoint 2050

10 QUESTIONS

Q1

Can aviation meet net-zero CO2emissions by 2050?
Yes. But it will take an enormous effort by committed industry
experts, governments, the finance sector and the researchcommunity to make it a reality. It will mean a rapid and massive
transformation of aviation’s ‘drop-in’ liquid energy supply
using sustainable aviation fuel – from both traditional sources
and new sources such as power-to-liquid – over the courseof just 30 years. It will also require an acceleration in aircraft
and engine technology development, including faster progress
towards new types of propulsion: electric, hybrid and hydrogen
powered aircraft. Net-zero will also likely require using carbon
removals to deal with residual CO2 emissions. It is possible, but
it is going to be a significant challenge.

Q3

Will aviation rely on offsets to meet its
goals, or to shift to net-zero emissions?
The expectation is that offsets (or other forms of out-of-sector
carbon reductions available in 2050) are not primarily relied
on to meet the goal, although there will be some emissions
that offsets can help mitigate and these will be needed to meeta net-zero 2050 goal. In the near term, high-quality offsets will
be key to aviation meeting its climate obligations. In the longterm, the removal of CO2 from the atmosphere will be key,
not just compensating for unavoidable emissions. Dependingon the progress of technology development (both in carbon
capture / direct air capture and for aviation technology andenergy deployment), there may be an increased role to play forsome form of market mechanism or offsetting as the sectortransitions to wider use of new energies.

Q5

When will passengers be able to board
electric or hydrogen aircraft?
Already, there are small commercial aircraft being test flown
using retro-fitted electric engines. The mid-2020s may see up
to 19-seat aircraft flying on new forms of energy. Scaling this
up to regional and some short-haul aircraft will take the next
15-20 years, but passengers might be able to purchase tickets
for electric, hybrid-electric or hydrogen flights around the2035 timeframe. There is a lot of work still to be done. Battery
technology is progressing quickly but needs to be accelerated
to provide enough energy for the right size of aircraft overreasonable distances. Hydrogen is an increasingly viable option,
but aircraft and engine systems need to be developed andstorage must be progressed. And then the manufacturers mustcomplete safety and operational certification in completely new
types of technology, as well as sell these novel aircraft types toairlines. Importantly for both options: increased production andnew distribution systems of low carbon electricity and greenhydrogen are required to make them a reality.

Q2

What is the difference between theindustry climate goal announced in 2009
and this analysis?
In 2009, the aviation sector became one of the first industries
to develop a climate action plan at a global level. The longterm goal was to halve aviation CO2 emissions by 2050,
compared to 2005. This was in line with the ‘well below 2ºC’
goal outlined in the Paris Agreement. As scientific evidence
has grown on the difference between that 2ºC goal and a
1.5ºC trajectory, it has become increasingly apparent thatreaching net-zero emissions by mid-century across all
sectors is vital to hold off the worst effects of climate change.
Therefore, this new analysis details how global aviation could
reach net-zero around 2050. It builds on analysis in the First
Edition of Waypoint 2050 by increasing the deployment ofsustainable aviation fuels and determining the residual CO2
emissions which would need to be offset to reach net-zero.
Reaching the sector’s climate goal set in 2009 was shown
to be a significant challenge, but achievable. Going beyond
our 2009 climate goal by demonstrating increasing ambition
for net-zero is an even greater challenge, but with the rightsupport from governments and particularly the energy sector,
it is also achievable.

Q4

Will shifting to sustainable aviation
fuels require large amounts of land,or impact food and water use?
No. Airlines have committed to ensuring a shift to sustainableaviation fuel will be done with fuels “which conserve an
ecological balance by avoiding the depletion of natural
resources”5. Analysis has shown that 100% of aviation fuel by
mid-century can come from sustainable sources – including
some (non-food or rotational) crops, waste sources and fuels
made from low-carbon electricity and CO2 removed fromthe air. Robust mechanisms need to be put in place to ensure
the sustainability of these fuels – a global industry can also
lead to pockets of less stringent regulation – but a full shift tosustainable sources is possible.

Waypoint 2050

Q6

Q7With enough money, anything can be sped up, but only as
far as technology, materials and politics allow. At the sametime as aviation is trying to decarbonise its energy systemand develop radical new technologies, the rest of the world isalso tasked with decarbonising other sectors in the economy.
We believe the Waypoint 2050 scenarios presented here to
be a realistic and still aspirational timeline for development.
There is a good case for current fossil fuel subsidies aroundthe world to be re-directed towards low-carbon energy which
would help speed up the transition.

It is likely that the cost of travel may increase, however thisis not an easy question to answer, as airline ticket prices
comprise a range of costs and the price to the public doesn’t
always reflect the underlying costs of things such as fuel oraircraft purchases. In addition, while the cost of sustainableaviation fuel may be higher than fossil fuel, it is unknown how
much the cost of fossil fuel may evolve (particularly as othertransport modes shift to electricity or hydrogen). Based on
today’s estimates, it is likely the cost of energy for aviation
may be higher in the future, but this could also be partially
offset by an increase in efficiency with new technologies andimprovements in operational performance. What we doknow is that aviation will continue to serve global connectivity
in all parts of the world, even if tickets are more expensivein the future.

Can we speed up the transition to fully
sustainable aviation?

Q8

Is it not easier to simply reduce
passenger growth?
Reducing passenger growth (either by reducing supply
with fewer seats or reducing demand by increasing ticket
taxes) will not necessarily reduce CO2 emissions in the way
many think and will inevitably restrict air travel for lesswealthy citizens. The steps taken in this report and ourrecommendations will allow us to restrict the growth of CO2
emissions, but not the connectivity, societal or economic
benefits that come from air travel being available to people
everywhere. The growth rates identified in this report are also
at a lower level, generally, than aviation has experienced in
the last decade, signifying a shift to slightly lower levels of
growth (and that growth taking place mainly in emerging
economies whose citizens should have the chance to enjoy
economic prosperity experienced in more established partsof the world for years).

Q10

Some countries or regions have specificroadmaps for aviation climate action,
how does this compare?
The Waypoint 2050 analysis is on a global basis and has tried
to take into account the varying rates of decarbonisation andgeopolitical environments in regions and countries around theworld. Due to the nature of a global analysis, the timeframe
and roadmap cannot be as precise as that for a specificcountry (or individual company), but the various technology
and energy solutions should be aligned. ATAG encourages
all parts of the industry to focus on how they can play a role inaccelerating a decarbonisation pathway.

Will tickets cost more in future to pay
for new technologies or new fuels?

Q9

How has Covid-19 and the shutdownof air traffic impacted the analysis?
Aviation has never experienced an impact on the system as
severe as the one caused by Covid-19 in 2020. The immediate
hit on the industry is obvious, but there will likely be a very
long-term reduction in growth projections as a result of theslow recovery. The central traffic forecast used for Waypoint
2050 has reduced by around 8% in 2050, compared with the
pre-Covid forecast. However, despite the severe financial
state of the sector over the next few years, commitment toclimate action remains strong.

78

Waypoint 2050

CALLS TO ACTION AS PART OF A DECARBONISATION PATHWAY
A range of actions will be needed to help reduce emissions in line with the scenarios presented in Waypoint 2050. In eachsection of the report, action points for different stakeholder groups are explored in detail. Here is a summary of the broad
areas of action.

Technology

Operations andInfrastructure•S ignificantly scale-up avenues for collaborative
approaches – within industry, between
industry and governments and with the researchcommunity and other stakeholders.

• Significantly scale-up avenues for collaborative
approaches – within industry, between
industry and governments and with the researchcommunity and other stakeholders.

Aviation sector

Aviation sector•A ccelerate research into radical airframe designs,
electric and hydrogen propulsion.
•F orm partnerships with non-aviation technology
providers.
•P rovide incubator opportunities for new green
technology start-ups.
•W ork to prepare for new energy requirements forelectric and hydrogen aircraft.

• Work in partnership to implement optimised
flight profiles as air traffic volumes recover topre-pandemic levels.
• Work towards full implementation of fixed
electrical ground power, weight-based efficiency
measures, continuous approach and departure,
airport collaborative decision making, aerodynamic
efficiency opportunities and assisted taxiing
opportunities.
• Collaborate to speed up investigating, testing andcertification of new efficiency measures.
• Encourage efficiency action throughout the system.
• Investigate new approach technologies andprocedures at all applicable airports.
•Investigate opportunities for increased use ofintermodality, including for connecting air passenger
traffic and for passenger access to airports.

Governments and policymakers•C ontinue to fund research programmes where
they exist, develop projects where they do not.
• I mplement the ICAO CO 2 Standard.
• Develop wider energy strategy to, aside from
deploying sustainable aviation fuel, includehydrogen and low-carbon electricity requirementsof aviation.
• Prepare agencies for certification processes for next
generation aircraft, including with unconventional
airframe, materials and energy sources.
Research institutions• Ensure research programmes for new technology
reflect real-world requirements.
• Continue research in collaboration with industry
into non-CO 2 effects of aviation.
Energy industry

Governments and policymakers• Make military airspace flexible use.
• Implement the ICAO Aviation System Block Upgrades.
• Encourage and fund, where viable, intermodaltransport planning.
Research institutions• Focus on operational procedure improvements foraviation system.

•P lan strategic energy needs, including potential
for aviation requirements for low-carbon
electricity and low-carbon hydrogen.

Energy industry

Finance community

Finance community•F ocus on funding new efficient aircraft acquisitionand explore sustainable finance opportunities.
Other stakeholders•C ollaborate on synergies with automotive, battery
and hydrogen sectors to encourage developmentof feed-in technology pathways for aviation.

• Work in partnership with airports to ensure low
carbon energy supply.

• Fund infrastructure upgrades and developments tomeet system efficiency needs.
Other stakeholders• Pursue community and aviation system engagement
on new procedures and techniques for air traffic
management.

Waypoint 2050

Sustainableaviation fuelOffsetting or outof-sector carbon
reductions• Significantly scale-up avenues for collaborative
approaches – within industry, between
industry and governments and with the researchcommunity and other stakeholders.

• Significantly scale-up avenues for collaborative
approaches – within industry, between
industry and governments and with the researchcommunity and other stakeholders.

Aviation sector

Aviation sector• All airlines should investigate sustainable aviationfuel opportunities – small or large. Start by doinga first test flight.
• Make substantial and bold SAF offtakeagreements at an early stage.
• Make the case to governments and the financecommunity for SAF scale-up.
• Bring passengers and major customers on board
with sustainable aviation fuel financing.

• Investigate partnership opportunities with future
offset providers.

Governments and policymakers• Foster a clean energy transition push acrossgovernment, including for sustainable aviation fuel.
• Prioritise aviation (and other hard-to-abate
sectors) as a user of alternative fuel.
• E xplore potential for SAF development at anational or regional level.
• Support development of SAF industry, including
attracting capital to expand SAF capacity throughloan guarantee programmes (de-risking the early
investment anxiety for new technologies), direct
research and development activities for local SAF
production pathways and new energy industries,
committing to policy certainty.
• Demonstrate leadership with a commitment forgovernment travel to be undertaken on SAF, adopt
globally-recognised sustainability standards andwork to harmonise global standards, encourage
user-friendly sustainable aviation fuel accounting
methods and work to harmonise global standards.
Research institutions• Implement SAF research programmes into
technology pathways, feedstock and emissions
reduction factor improvements, production
efficiency improvements.
Energy industry• Demonstrate substantial commitment tosustainable aviation fuel production and scale-up.
Finance community• Focus funding on SAF opportunities worldwide.
Other stakeholders• Other transport modes should prioritise best
available energy options.

Governments and policymakers• Support the ICAO Carbon Offsetting and Reduction
Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) andensure it continues to evolve.
• Set a long-term CO 2 goal through ICAO.
• Do not duplicate market mechanisms.
• Base any domestic measures on CORSIA principles.
• Work with fellow governments to conclude
UNFCCC Article 6 discussions.
• Promote development of carbon capture andremoval opportunities.
Research institutions• Accelerate development of carbon capture anddirect air capture efficiency.
Finance community• Support development of carbon capture and direct
air capture opportunities.
Other stakeholders• Develop additional high-quality carbon credit
products.

910

Waypoint 2050

Waypoint 2050

THE
CHALLENGE

11

12

Waypoint 2050

AIR TRANSPORT HAS CONNECTED THE WORLD FOR MORE THAN A CENTURY,
WITH 88.3 BILLION6 PASSENGERS HAVING FLOWN SINCE THE FIRST COMMERCIALSERVICE TOOK OFF IN 1914. IT IS A SYSTEM RELIED ON BY MILLIONS OF PEOPLE
FOR CONNECTIVITY TO THEIR LOVED ONES; BY BUSINESSES TO ENGAGE IN
TRADE, DEVELOPMENT AND INNOVATION; BY GOVERNMENTS TO ENCOURAGE
THE ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF TOURISM, AND TO SUPPORT NEARLY 87.7 MILLIONJOBS WORLDWIDE.
The world with modern, rapid, air transport is a rich andrewarding one. The fundamental challenge is to ensure thatconnectivity can continue, whilst working to significantly
reduce its impact on the climate. But that overarching balancebrings with it a number of underlying challenges which makeup counterbalancing dynamics, sometimes working against
each other.

Challenge: growth is not taking place
evenly around the world
Political situations play a role when considering technologicaland policy solutions to global issues such as climate change.
Whilst air travel has been growing very quickly in the last
decade, the majority of that growth (and the growth to comein the next 30 years) is in emerging economies. These nations
have a right to give their citizens access to the same business,tourism and travel opportunities that those in establishedeconomies have enjoyed in the past 30-40 years.

transport mode. A majority of these are international services
and must therefore be dealt with by international rules
which have to balance the need to help grow economies
with the need to reign in CO2 emissions. The framework of
the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is themost effective place to achieve that balance. The aviationindustry has played a leading and progressive role in pushinggovernments meeting at ICAO to adopt global climate
standards, including the current process to develop a longterm goal for CO2 emissions reduction.

Challenge: forecasting

Around 80% of air transport emissions are from flights
over 1,500 kilometres in length7, which have no alternative

There are a number of uncertainties when looking out ten
years, let alone 30 or longer. How will traffic evolve? Will there
be further shocks to the system that alter the fundamental
growth patterns of mobility? What will be the price of fuel —will it rise or fall as other sectors shift more easily to alternative
sources of energy? What will be the availability (and cost) ofoffsets or other carbon mitigation options? When will newtechnologies be available and how much can they contribute toFuel efficiency through technology since theearly jet age8

Operational efficiency since 1990,
global numbers9

The development of new airframes and engines has delivered
an 80% + improvement in the efficiency of aviation.

Through deploying new technology, operational andinfrastructure efficiencies and improvements in fleet
utilisation, a flight a passenger takes today will, on average,
produce 54.3% less CO 2 than the same flight in 1990.
2,000

300

100
90

Engine fuelconsumption

60
50

Aircraft fuelburn per seat

40

49%

30
20
82%

10

1,600
1,400

200

1,200
150

1,000

54.3%

Lower CO 2 perpassenger kilometre

100

800
600
400

50

200

0

0
2018

2016

2014

2012

2008

2010

2006

0
2004

2010

2002

2000

1998

1990

2000

1980

Year of model introduction

1996

1970

1994

1960

1992

1950

1990

% of base (Comet 4)70

Grams of CO2 per tonne kilometre

80

Grams of CO2 per passenger kilometre

1,800
250

Waypoint 2050

reducing emissions? The interplay between these questions is
also important: if traffic reduces significantly, will airlines haveenough capital to invest in new fleets or sustainable fuels? Does
the industry prioritise investing in technology development orin an energy transition?
Obviously, each of these tracks can generate many hundredsof different forecasts and scenarios. Bringing them together
increases further the complexity. Waypoint 2050 attempts
to focus on several likely scenarios that represent potential
paths forward, as identified by industry experts involved in
the analysis.
Inevitably, analysis with so many variables raise more questions.
The hope is that Waypoint 2050 can provide a basis for further
discussions about aviation’s future emissions trajectory.

Challenge: aviation is alreadyremarkably efficientFuel efficiency has been a key driver of development since thedawn of the air transport industry. The sector has shown aconsistent improvement in:»» The efficiency of technology platforms (engines andairframe developments): 85% improvement since thefirst jet engines in the 1950s.
»» Operational efficiency (the combination of technology
across the entire aircraft fleet, the way these aircraft
are operated, the infrastructure environment and theutilisation of assets — load factors on board flights): 54%
improvement (combined technology, operations andload factor) since 1990.
A passenger taking a flight today produces around the sameamount of CO2 as a small car with average occupancy. Eachgeneration of new aircraft improves fuel efficiency evenfurther, but the gains through evolutionary technology are
getting more and more challenging to achieve. This is because
air travel tends to be very efficient on a per-kilometre basis
already, given its speed and ability to cover large distances.
Significant CO2 savings will continue to materialise in the
coming decade through continuous fleet renewal with today’s
new generation aircraft providing immediate 20-25% fuel- andCO2 savings compared to the previous generation.

Challenge: cost of the transition is highand the technology is not available… yet
Aviation is inherently a costly business, with low margins for
its frontline airline operators. Aircraft are high-value assetsthat take a long time to build, and a long time to pay off. Unlikecars and many other machines, aircraft can remain in usefulservice for 25+ years and so fleet turnover tends to be slow. An
airline or lessor which has spent hundreds of millions on an
aircraft is unlikely to want to upgrade without a reasonable
return on investment.
For example, the combined fleet value of the ten largest leasing
companies in the world — comprising 6,863 aircraft, or justunder 20% of the world fleet — is $205 billion11. Airlines havespent over a trillion dollars on new aircraft orders since theindustry climate goals were agreed in 200912.
The transition to radical new technologies will requiresignificant investment by the commercial aerospacesector, research institutions and governments. Once a newtechnology has been identified, the aerospace sector must
work to commercialise at scale in order for prototypes andcommercial versions to be produced, sold to airlines, put
through rigorous testing and certification procedures andComparison of operational fuel efficiency between different modes of transport, 2014 EU10
Using European Union data, this chart shows the operational CO 2 emissions of air transport compared with other European
averages (data for 2014, with update to aviation figure in 2018. If analysis only included the latest generation of aircraft, thepotential is for around 50g of CO 2 per passenger kilometre).
PASSENGER
RAIL

14

BUS

68

SMALL
CAR

42

AIR
TRAVEL

108

LARGE
CAR

58

28

13

(assume nuclear or renewable electricity)
European averagewith 4 passengers (petrol / gas)
1.5 passengers*

104

European fleet average (2014)
European fleet average (2018)96

with 4 passengers (petrol / gas)

158

Grams of CO2 per passenger kilometre*Average occupancy of cars is around 1.5. These figures do not include embedded emissions
from construction and maintenance of infrastructure, which are less important for aviation.

1.5 passengers*

14

Waypoint 2050

Efficiency improvements have been impressive, more work needed

Efficiency measures have already saved 11 Gt of CO ² since 1990, but further work is needed to get the sector down to the industry
goal in 2050 (the required emissions reductions are explored in this publication), towards net-zero at a global level.
5,200 Mt

CO ² (millions of tonnes)

5,000
4,000

Emissions reductions already achieved:
over 11 Gt of CO ² avoided throughinvestment in technology and operational
improvements since 1990

3,000
2,000

2050
emissions
without
additional
efforts:
2,000 Mt

Requiredemissions
reductions

1,000

Carbon-neutral
growth

0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Net-zero
CO emissions
2040

2050

then entered into service. The development of a new aircraft
type using evolutionary technology can be up to ten years andcost tens of billions of dollars13. To introduce radical technicalchanges (such as hybrid, hydrogen or electric aircraft) willcommand a similar or greater level of investment.

It is important to note that not all gases have the same climate
impacts. CO2 is the most notable greenhouse gas becauseof its long life, whereas some other gases (such as methanefrom agriculture and waste) have a much stronger impact on
climate change, but a very short life.

On top of the aircraft themselves, their operation brings with
it incentives to reduce fuel use (and therefore emissions), withairlines spending $188 billion on fuel in 2019. This represents
just under a quarter of operating costs (and the same amountas spent on labour)14. The development of a new energy system
for aviation will also require significant investment. The most
attractive option is through drop-in sustainable aviationfuel which can make use of existing fuel systems in aircraft
and at the world’s 3,780 commercial airports. There are stillhigh levels of investment required in the production anddistribution of the sustainable fuel, but not to the extent ofbuilding a whole separate network as would be needed with,for example, hydrogen.

One of the most visible signs of aircraft movements are thecontrails left behind as flights move through some areas of
the atmosphere. These are made up of ice crystals from thecondensation of water vapour (like naturally-occurring clouds)
produced from the combustion process inside the engine.

This is against a backdrop of a race for all other sectors also todecarbonise — with many of the other transport and industrial
sectors able to make the transition sooner, due to existing
technologies already being available.

Challenge: CO2 is not the
only consideration
This report, and the analysis that underpins it, concentrates
on the reduction of CO2 emissions from commercial aviation
services. However, air transport also produces othergreenhouse gases. Whilst carbon dioxide is the greenhousegas that has the most long-term impact, there are otheremissions from flight. Recent analysis has shown that the full
impact of aviation may be around 3.5% of all anthropogenic
climate impact15.
The exhaust of a jet engine is made up of:»» 5% to 6% CO2;»» 2% water vapour;»» around 0.03% nitrogen oxides, unburned hydrocarbons,carbon monoxide and sulphur oxides;»» traces of hydroxyl family and nitrogen compounds andsmall amounts of soot particles; and»» between 91.5% and 92.5% is normal atmospheric oxygenand nitrogen.

The impact of contrails (and the hazy cirrus clouds theysometimes generate as they dissipate) on climate change
is complex and still includes large uncertainties, despiteadvances in research. Some recent studies have shown that
contrail-induced cirrus could help cool the planet during theday, but warm it at night, similar to ordinary clouds.
It is actually possible to avoid creating contrails, either by
flying around the areas of super-saturated cold air in which
they form, or flying at a different altitude. However, this brings
with it some downsides, as airlines could use more fuel (andtherefore emit more CO2) to avoid these areas. The emissionof any additional unnecessary CO2 , however, needs to beprevented wherever possible.
A number of airlines and aviation experts are engaged withresearch teams to investigate the impacts of contrails further.
While chances are good to avoid contrail formation withalmost negligible CO2 penalties, the bigger challenge is toobtain highly reliable meteorological data and to re-arrange
flights on fewer flight levels in busy airspaces.
Some of the technology solutions being developed andexplored in this report also have a positive impact on theother non-CO2 impacts of aviation. Sustainable aviation fuels
can reduce contrail formation as they contain no sulphur
nor aromatic hydrocarbons, their exhaust is almost free ofparticulate matter, which is necessary to make water vapour
condense into contrails. Electric and hydrogen energy supply
would have virtually no contrail formation. Using hydrogenleads to increased water vapour emissions, but due to the lackof particles contrail formation is suppressed16. Each new typeof energy would burn cleaner than fossil jet fuel and would also
therefore likely produce fewer particulate matter emissions.
The important focus is how to bring down CO2 emissions
in balance with reducing other environmental impacts ofthe sector.

Waypoint 2050

A NOTE ON
COVID-19

GATE

15

16

Waypoint 2050

THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS ON ALL ASPECTS OF THE ECONOMY
AND SOCIETY IS WELL KNOWN. THE IMPACT ON AVIATION HAS BEEN
PARTICULARLY ACUTE, EQUIVALENT TO ADDING TOGETHER THE EFFECTS
OF PREVIOUS SHOCKS (9/11, SARS, THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS AND
EYJAFJALLAJÖKULL ERUPTION AIRSPACE CLOSURE) INTO ONE ‘BLACK SWAN’
EVENT WHICH WILL HAVE FAR-REACHING IMPLICATIONS ON THE INDUSTRYFOR MANY YEARS.
Whilst the size of the crisis is unprecedented, history has shownthat air transport services and the desire to travel does return,
eventually. The Covid-19 crisis may have several impacts on theanalysis of this report, and the changes it is intended to drive.
Some of those (for example a potential impact on investment
capacities) are commented on below but not included in thisanalysis, as they are not immediately qualifiable.

Traffic forecasts
There have been reductions in passenger traffic caused byshocks in the past, but never a near total shutdown of the fullglobal system. At the peak of the shutdown in mid-April 2020,
the number of flights operating globally was an average of aquarter the number operating just six weeks earlier17 (and manyof these flights were operating with very limited occupancy:
revenue passenger kilometres fell some 94.3% compared with
April 201918).
The re-opening of routes is going to be slow, as a result ofgovernment health measures and the concerns of passengers
to travel too far from home. This, accompanied by the broader
economic conditions resulting from Covid-19 suggests that
there will be a prolonged period of soft demand. Many industry
analysts suggest the industry may not return to pre-Covid-19

levels of passengers or traffic until 2024. Particularly impacted
will be the long-haul traffic which makes up a large proportionof industry revenue passenger kilometres, the key metric usedin Waypoint 2050 analysis.
Shocks to air traffic growth in the past have always been
followed by a reversion to trend, but the severe nature of this
shutdown and the slow return to travel may have much furtherreaching implications than expected. The central passenger
growth scenario used for Waypoint 2050 was already basedon lower growth rates than had been experienced in the last
decade and which are likely lower than some other forecasts.
But the analysis also now includes a reflection of what will likely
be a ‘new normal’ in air travel: an industry smaller than was
expected in 2019.
The post-Covid-19 revision of long-term growth suggests thatthe central traffic forecast used for Waypoint 2050 is around
8% lower in 2050 than it was in a pre-Covid world. This isdue to:»» a slow recovery from a severe drop-off in traffic in the 2020year, likely to not recover to 2019 levels until 2024, andcompletely re-baselining the growth of air travel;»» a longer-term impact on GDP growth in economies aroundthe world;

Global air passengers (billions) 1914-2021F19

SECOND WORLD WAR

2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

3

4

5

7

9

8
10

6
COVID-19

GREAT DEPRESSION

2.5

GULF WAR

1918 / 1919 INFLUENZA PANDEMIC
2

3.0

1973 OIL SHOCKFIRST WORLD WAR
1

3.5

1914
1916
1918
1920
1922
1924
1926
1928
1930
1932
1934
1936
1938
1940
1942
1944
1946
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2021F

Passengers (billions)

4.0

9/11 FOLLOWED BY SARS

4.5

ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

5.0

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISISPrevious crises have resulted in a fairly rapid return to trend. The Covid-19 situation will likely see a much slower recovery and has
been so impactful on traffic that it has re-set the baseline of growth for decades ahead.

Waypoint 2050»» a reduction in the propensity to travel due to concerns
over health situation at destinations and the potential forquarantine inconvenience — this will recover as the world
eases out of the Covid-19 crisis, but there may be a long tailof concern, particularly amongst older travellers;»» a reduction in business travel in the medium-term, due
to a soft corporate financial situation and the relianceon video conferencing and remote working during the
shutdown leading to a change in behaviour amongst
corporate travellers.

Investment environment
The area where efficiency may be impacted in the mediumterm by the Covid-19-associated economic recession will be theinvestment environment. This has several possible impacts:»» The ability for airlines to invest in new aircraft, at least fora few years, may be dampened as they fight for survival.
Coupled with the extremely low cost of fuel during theinitial stages of the pandemic, there could be an incentive
to retain older aircraft longer. However, it is unlikely thatbrand new aircraft will not be delivered, and that the priceof fuel has already rallied. Indeed, airlines are alreadyplacing orders for new-generation aircraft again.
»» Airlines, governments and energy suppliers may find it
challenging to invest in the infrastructure and forward
purchase agreements required to facilitate the energy
transition needed towards sustainable aviation fuel. This,
however, is a vital step for an industry with few otheroptions for energy sources and is in need of acceleration:
governments should see this crisis as an opportunity tobuild new energy industries across the world as part of agreen recovery.
»» Airframe and engine manufacturers are also facing
a significant financial impact which may create achallenging investment environment for developmentof new conventional aircraft and research into radical
technology shifts.

Efficiency improvements
The reduction in air travel has had a dramatic impact on theuse of aircraft. At its peak, the Covid-19 shutdown saw 64%
of the global jet fleet grounded21 and, given the long recovery
expected, some of those aircraft will not re-enter service.
At the same time, a backlog of 11,650 new aircraft were due toenter service over the coming years, prior to the shutdown22.
A number of these orders may be delayed or cancelled, butmany of them are already in production or awaiting delivery.
This could lead to competing efficiency outcomes:»» An accelerated retirement of older (less efficient) aircraft.
»» A higher percentage of newer (more efficient) aircraftin fleets.
»» A short-term reduction in the delivery of newer aircraft.
»» A medium-term reduction in the purchase of newer aircraft.
Already, airlines have announced retirements of older model
aircraft, particularly large four-engine models such as the
Boeing 747-400, Airbus A340 and A380. However, a numberof narrowbody older generation aircraft are also being
permanently parked because of the crisis.
How these short- and medium-term developments will impact
the fuel efficiency of the sector remains to be seen, however thetimelines being considered in Waypoint 2050 will not likely be
impacted by these short-term developments.

17

Despite these challenges, the industry has committed tomaintaining its efficiency and long-term emissions reduction
strategy, even in the face of the unprecedented crisis of 2020.
In fact, there has been an acceleration of climate commitments
by the sector during Covid-19, rather than a slow-down: at the
beginning of 2020, 11 airlines had committed to net-zero goals.
At the time of printing 61 airlines representing 52% of global
passenger traffic had made individual corporate commitments
to net-zero by 2050 (or earlier).

Global air passenger traffic forecast comparison, pre- and post-Covid20
Comparison between the traffic forecasts used before Covid-19 hit and those used in the Waypoint 2050 report: the deep impact
of Covid-19 on passenger traffic, as well as the long recovery will mean an 8% reduction in traffic in the central scenario in 2050.

Revenue passenger kilometres (RPKS)

35
30
25

H
C

20
15

8%
reduction in
2050 traffic for
central forecast

L

10
5
0
2015
H

2020
WAYPOINT
2050 TRAFFICFORECAST: HIGH

2025
C

2030

WAYPOINT
2050 TRAFFICFORECAST: CENTRAL

2035
L

WAYPOINT
2050 TRAFFICFORECAST: LOW

2040
PRE-COVID-19
FORECAST

2045

2050
POST-COVID-19
FORECASTHISTORICAL

18

Waypoint 2050

Waypoint 2050

WAYPOINT
2050
A. Traffic forecasts

30

B. Technology

40

C. Operations and infrastructure60

D. Sustainable aviation fuel72
92

E. Offsetting

19

20

Waypoint 2050

IN AVIATION, WAYPOINTS ARE SIGNIFICANT POINTS ON A FLIGHTPATH THATPILOTS USE IN NAVIGATING THEIR DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. THEY ARE NEITHERTHE START NOR THE END OF A JOURNEY, BUT A GUIDE TO WHERE THE
FLIGHT NEEDS TO GO. IN DEVELOPING A LONG-TERM GOAL, THE INDUSTRY
HAS TAKEN THIS PHILOSOPHY TO ACKNOWLEDGE THAT 2050 IS NOT ADESTINATION, BUT A MARKER ON A PATH TOWARDS TOTALLY ZERO CARBON
EMISSIONS FROM AIR TRANSPORT.
The sector’s framework for climate action is underpinned byadvances in new technology, operational efficiency, new types
of fuels, the development of more efficient infrastructure and,for the mid-range goal, the world’s first carbon mechanism forany global sector.

Scope of project
Waypoint 2050 covers the next 30+ years in commercial
aviation from a CO2 perspective. It does not include militaryor most general aviation (i.e. smaller privately held aircraft
used for hobby purposes). Nor does it include the burgeoning
fields such as unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) or their use
in urban air mobility (air taxis). Whilst these may have an
impact on airspace capacity and are an important component
for planning purposes, they are generally small scale whenit comes to exploring the global impact of aviation on climatechange and were not included in the scope of this study.

Included in industry
2050 goal: emissions from theglobal (commercial) use of jet fuelEmissions from military, government, generalaviation and air taxi mobility services notincluded in the industry goals.

In addition, these smaller vehicles appear to already test
and embrace new forms of lower-carbon energy sources e.g.,
electric, hybrid electric, hydrogen. They may help and become
the initial test bed for larger aircraft in the future. The reemergence of supersonic flight possibilities has also not been
included, as it will likely remain a niche section of the market
and should be expected to comply with rigorous aircraft
CO2 standards developed at the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO).
The Waypoint 2050 project focuses on the trajectory of CO2
emissions from aircraft operations and the use of jet fuel.
Whilst a lot of work is going on to reduce the emissions fromground-based sources (such as improving the efficiency ofoffice buildings and airport terminals, and shifting groundvehicle fleets to alternative energy sources), these are notincluded in the scope of the Waypoint 2050 analysis, except
where they have an impact on aircraft fuel use.

ICAO

UNFCCCParis Agreement» CO2 emissions frominternational aviation» CO2 emissions fromdomestic aviation(fuel burn gate-to-gate)(fuel burn gate-to-gate)» Airport emissions» Emissions from groundservice equipment androad vehicles» Terminals, maintenancefacilities, offices» Air traffic control

This report, the result of three years of work by experts fromacross the sector, builds on previous analysis to outline how airtransport can meet net-zero carbon emissions by mid-century.

Waypoint 2050

A VISION FOR 2050
Those working in the aviation sector in 2050 will
have an industry that is, in some ways very familiar
to that of 2020 and in many ways very different. At
that point aviation (both international and domestic
services) should be in a position to achieve net-zero
CO 2 emissions, despite transporting over 10 billion
passengers a year (more than twice 2019 levels),
supporting 180 million jobs and over $8.8 trillion ineconomic activity 23.
Much of the growth out to 2050 will have taken placein Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Africa and Latin
America, allowing the citizens of those societies tobenefit from the social, family, cultural and businessconnectivity that was a century earlier the reserve of
the wealthy in Europe and North America.
For short-and medium-haul routes, a series of
new energy sources will provide much of the power
needed for those flights – and with virtually no CO 2
emissions at all. Electric and hybrid-electric aircraft
will connect secondary cities and small communities
with larger hubs for connection to long-haul routes.
Hydrogen powered aircraft will have entered thefleet for almost zero emissions flights on short-hauldomestic and international services. Most longhaul operations will be taking place with aircraft ageneration beyond those that are flying today, butnearly completely powered by sustainable aviationfuel from a variety of sources (including fuels thatare made by combining low carbon electricity withCO 2 removed from the air).
Airports will be hubs of renewable energy
production and distribution, taking a leadership rolein their local communities for new energy and cleantransportation options. The whole industry will haveadopted a zero-waste strategy, applying the best
circular economy practices, pioneering the use of
new materials and the recyclability of materials andensuring the proper dismantling and recycling ofaircraft at the end of their life.
The path to get from where we are now to thiseventual world is not an easy one. Sustainableaviation fuel production will need to ramp up fromaround 0.05 million tonnes today to as much as 445
million tonnes per year by 2050. Aircraft with newforms of propulsion technology are researched; they
will be prototyped, tested, and will need to be flown
and purchased by the world’s airlines. The wholeindustry will need to come together to maximise
the operational and infrastructure improvements
needed to help reduce emissions further and narrow
the gap between growth and the sector’s climate
goals. And all this while the rest of the economy isalso racing to reduce emissions and push forwardwith new ways of doing business.

21

22

Waypoint 2050

Cost buckets

Primary actors involved

Research into new aircraft, engines and supporting
technologies (batteries, hydrogen storage, etc)

» Aircraft and engine manufacturers» Research institutions» Government support

Development, industrialisation and certification for
new architecture aircraft, engines and systems» Aircraft and engine manufacturers» Government support

Purchase and operationalisation of new aircraft(training of flight and cabin crews, maintenance, etc)

» Airlines

Deployment of new air traffic management technologies
and airspace infrastructure design» Air navigation service providers

Installation of fixed electrical ground power at all
airport gates» Airports

New distribution systems for green electricity for aircraft
supply, hydrogen and low-carbon energy at airports» Energy providers» Airports» Government support

Scale-up of sustainable aviation fuel production facilities» Airlines» Energy providers» Government support

Research for new sources of sustainable aviation fuel» Research institutions» Government» Energy producers / providers

Emission reductions purchased from ‘out-of-sector’projects to compensate for unavoidable CO2 emissions
in aviation.

» Airlines» Governments (for policy and accounting)‘Offsetting’ opportunities such as forestry, natural carbon
sinks and novel approaches such as carbon capture or
direct air capture must be matured and brought to market» Carbon markets» Governments» Airlines and airports (as purchasers)

Research on understanding the impact of non-CO2
aviation emissions» Research organisations (with government support)» Aircraft and engine manufacturers» Airlines

The cost of transition

There is not just one pathway

This project has not considered the cost of the transition, except
for the investment needed in new energies and SAF deployment,
given the multiple uncertainties that exist when trying toanalyse this at a global level and over such a long time period.
The main focus has been on the practical and technical ability
to meet the industry carbon goals, whilst understanding thatthe full cost will be considerable: both to the various parties
in the industry and to the governments and financeinstitutions that will need to underwrite the transition. The list
below may give an idea of the major cost areas that will need tobe considered.

In order to reduce the complexity of forecasting across a wide
range of variables, this report has identified three specificscenarios. These are built on a range of sub-scenarios which
will be explored in the coming chapters covering a) traffic
growth forecasts, b) technology developments, c) operations
and infrastructure improvements, d) sustainable aviation fuel,and e) the role of out-of-sector market-based mechanisms to fill
any remaining gaps.

Additionally, the analysis has not concentrated on the impact ofany carbon price — it has formed a basis for the SAF deployment
work in particular, but the uncertainty over the cost of carbon
30 years into the future is high. Whilst CORSIA has beendeveloped at a global level, it touches international services only
and this report looks at both international and domestic traffic.
To try and place a carbon price filter on the entire aviationindustry for forecasting purposes would have added anotherlayer of complexity.

The central traffic growth projection used shows that, by 2050,
over 10 billion passengers will fly each year a distance of 22
trillion revenue passenger kilometres. Without any intervention(keeping the current fleet and current level of operational
efficiency), this activity would generate close to 2,000
megatonnes of CO2 and require over 620 Mt of fuel.
The scenarios below outline how the industry would use
technology, operations, infrastructure and sustainable aviation
fuels to bring this down to net-zero CO2 in 2050, and towards
decarbonisation in the years afterwards. The baseline (scenario0) is a continuation of the current efficiency trends across allpillars of action, with no acceleration of improvements.

Waypoint 2050

23

Scenario 0: baseline / continuation of current trends
Traffic forecasts are in the ‘central’ range of around 3.1%
per annum compound growth. Technology improvements
are conservative (i.e., assuming no- to little-risk byshifting to unconventional platforms) and therefore show
a continuation of the current rate of improvement, withanother wave of new aircraft joining and starting to replace
the fleet around 2030-2035. Despite mid traffic growth,

investments in operations and infrastructure result in some
net improvements and CO 2 reductions. Sustainable aviationfuel is developed and introduced based on current rates
resulting in approximately 30 to 195 million tonnes in 2050.
Under this scenario, offsets (either the traditional offsets
as used today, or new options such as carbon capture) are
required and will have to play a major role in 2050.

Traffic growth

C

Central scenario: 3.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2019-2050

Technology
developments

T2

Continuation of current development cycle and performance
improvement (the next generation of ‘tube-and-wing’)

Operations andinfrastructure
improvements

O2

Mid-range improvements and airline load factor improvements

Sustainableaviation fuelF1

F1 to F1 high+ continuation of current investment curve delivering
between 30 – 195 Mt (40 – 240 billion litres) of SAF with a 100% emissions
reduction factor by 2050

Offsets (or othercarbon mitigation
options)

M0

Required to meet goal, in the order of 970 – 1,500 Mt of offsets

CO2 emissions (millions of tonnes)

2,500

Emissions reduction
contributions in 2050

2,000

5%

1,500

10%
9%
31%

1,000

76%
500

49%
Net-zero

0
2015

2020

T TECHNOLOGY

2025

0

2030

2035

OPERATIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Comparison with industry -50% long-term goal set in 2009

2040

2045

2050

(Low SAF)SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL

F (LOW-AND HIGH-RANGE)(High SAF)
MARKET-BASEDM MEASURE

In order to meet the industry long-term goal of -50% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels, Technology would contribute
12% of emissions reductions. Operations and infrastructure improvements 11%. Sustainable Aviation Fuels would
show a low- to high-range continuation of current investment curve delivering between 30 - 195 Mt (40 - 240 billion
litres) of SAF with a 100% emissions reduction factor by 2050 (between 6 and 37% of 2050 emissions reductions). The
remainder required to meet goal would need to be met with out-of-sector carbon removals or offsets, in the order of
650 – 1,200 Mt in 2050.

24

Waypoint 2050

Scenario 1: pushing technology and operations
Under this scenario, technology improvements are prioritised
and ambitious with the expectation of the emergence ofunconventional airframes and a transition of the fleet towards
hybrid/electric aircraft from 2035/40. Significant investments inoperations and infrastructure improvements result in substantial
improvements and CO2 reductions. The gap between CO2emissions after technology and operations and infrastructure

improvements and the 2050 carbon goal is fulfilled with theuse of sustainable aviation fuels. This will require significant
quantities of SAF with high emissions reduction factor overtheir lifecycle. Under this scenario, offsets will be needed to clear
up any residual emissions in 2050 but may be required during2035-2050 as a transition mechanism.

Traffic growth

C

Central scenario: 3.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2019-2050

Technology
developments

T4

Prioritised development of electric and hybrid electric aircraft inthe short-range and <100 seat category with entry into service from2035/2040 and further enhancements for larger aircraft.

Operations andinfrastructure
improvements

O3

High-range improvements and airline load factor improvements

Sustainableaviation fuelF2

Backcast of what is required (around 1,200 Mt CO 2 reduction) to replace
90% of conventional jet fuel: 380 Mt (480 billion litres) of SAF with a 100%emissions reduction factor by 2050

Offsets (or othercarbon mitigation
options)

M1

Around 135 million tonnes worth of offsets may be required to close theemissions gap to net-zero

CO2 emissions (millions of tonnes)

2,500

Emissions reduction
contributions in 2050

2,000

22%
1,500

10%

1,000

61%
500

Net-zero

0
2015

2020

T TECHNOLOGY

2025

0

2030

2035

OPERATIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Comparison with industry -50% long-term goal set in 2009

2040

2045

7%
2050

F SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL

MARKET-BASEDM MEASURE

In order to meet the industry long-term goal of -50% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels, Technology would contribute
26% of emissions reductions. Operations and infrastructure improvements 12%. A back-cast to meet the goal would
require 320 Mt (400 billion litres) with a 100% emissions reduction factor by 2050 (62% of emissions reductions), or a
mix of SAF and offsets in the form of carbon removals.

Waypoint 2050

25

Scenario 2: aggressive sustainable fuel deployment
Under this scenario, technology improvements are ambitious
with new aircraft configurations such as blended wing body
options, although those are based on current powerplant
and technologies (not a significant shift to electric or hybrid,with the industry prioritising investment in sustainable
fuels). Despite mid traffic growth, investments in operations
and infrastructure result in some net improvements and CO2

reductions. The gap between CO2 emissions after technology
and operations and infrastructure improvements and the2050 carbon goal is fulfilled with sustainable aviation fuels(requiring significant amounts of SAF with high emissions
reduction factors). Under this scenario, offsets will be needed
to clear up any residual emissions in 2050 but may berequired during 2035-2050 as a transition mechanism.

Traffic growth

C

Central scenario: 3.1% CAGR 2020-2050

Technology
developments

T3

New airframe configurations with substantial aerodynamics
performance such as blended wing body

Operations andinfrastructure
improvements

O2

Mid-range improvements and airline load factor improvements

Sustainableaviation fuelF3

Backcast of what is required (around 1,400 Mt CO 2 reduction) to replace
90% of conventional fuel: 445 Mt (555 billion litres) of SAF with a 100%emissions reduction factor by 2050

Offsets (or othercarbon mitigation
options)

M2

Around 155 million tonnes worth of offsets may be required to close theemissions gap to net-zero

CO2 emissions (millions of tonnes)

2,500

Emissions reduction
contributions in 2050

2,000

12%
9%

1,500

1,000

71%

500

Net-zero

0
2015

2020

T TECHNOLOGY

2025

0

2030

2035

OPERATIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Comparison with industry -50% long-term goal set in 2009

2040

2045

8%
2050

F SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL

MARKET-BASEDM MEASURE

In order to meet the industry long-term goal of -50% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels, Technology would contribute
14% of emissions reductions. Operations and infrastructure improvements 11%. A back-cast to meet the goal would
require 390 Mt (490 billion litres) with a 100% emissions reduction factor by 2050 (75% of emissions reductions), or a
mix of SAF and offsets in the form of carbon removals.

26

Waypoint 2050

Scenario 3: aspirational and aggressive technology perspective
Under this scenario, technology improvements are very
ambitious with electric aircraft up to 100-seat, zero-emissions
aircraft (powered by green hydrogen) for the 100-200 seat
segment and hybrid-electric powered unconventional aircraft
configuration for larger aircraft. Despite a mid-level of traffic
growth, investments in operations and infrastructure resultin some net improvements and CO2 reductions. The gap

between CO2 emissions after technology and operations andinfrastructure improvements and the 2050 carbon goal isfulfilled with sustainable aviation fuels (requiring significant
amounts of SAF with high emissions reduction factor (ERF)).
Under this scenario, offsets will be needed to clear up
any residual emissions in 2050 but may be required during2035-2050 as a transition mechanism.

Traffic growth

C

Central scenario: 3.1% CAGR 2020-2050

Technology
developments

T5

Very aggressive acceleration of the introduction of electric, hybrid andzero-emissions (hydrogen) aircraft in the 2035-2040 timeframe

Operations andinfrastructure
improvements

O2

Mid-range improvements and airline load factor improvements

Sustainableaviation fuelF4

Backcast of what is required (around 1,000 Mt of CO 2) to replace 90% ofconventional fuel: 330 Mt (410 billion litres) of SAF with a 100% emissions
reduction factor by 2050

Offsets (or othercarbon mitigation
options)

M3

Around 115 million tonnes worth of offsets may be required to close theemissions gap to net-zero

CO2 emissions (millions of tonnes)

2,500

Emissions reduction
contributions in 2050

2,000

34%

1,500

7%
1,000

53%
500

Net-zero

0
2015

2020

T TECHNOLOGY

2025

0

2030

2035

OPERATIONS AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Comparison with industry -50% long-term goal set in 2009

2040

2045

6%
2050

F SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL

MARKET-BASEDM MEASURE

In order to meet the industry long-term goal of -50% by 2050 compared to 2005 levels, Technology would contribute
41% of emissions reductions. Operations and infrastructure improvements 8%. A back-cast to meet the goal would
require 260 Mt (330 billion litres) with a 100% emissions reduction factor by 2050 (51% of emissions reductions), or a
mix of SAF and offsets in the form of carbon removals.

Waypoint 2050

Compatible with the Paris Agreement
Although the Paris Agreement does not establish sectorspecific goals for addressing potential temperature rise,
analysis shows that the aviation sector’s 2050 goal to halve net
CO2 emissions on a 2005 baseline was in line with the Paris
Agreement goal to limit global temperature rise to "well below
2ºC above pre-industrial levels". A net-zero 2050 pathway willbring aviation in line with the 1.5ºC stretch goal.
The 2015 Paris Agreement for the first time ensured a
global climate change response built on voluntary pledgesof emissions reductions by all States (known as nationallydetermined contributions, or NDCs). The key provision of theAgreement outlines the world’s goal:
Holding the increase in the global average temperature towell below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuingefforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above preindustrial levels, recognising that this would significantly
reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.
Analysis from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) has shown that there is a significant differencein how the world will meet the 2°C goal versus the 1.5°C goal,as well as the benefits for doing so, including a reduction in
population exposed to extreme heat, lower sea level rise andfewer species lost 24.
While the industry goal announced in 2009 (to reach -50%
CO2 in 2050, compared with 2005) is in line with the 2°C
Paris Agreement goal, the IPCC has published several

WHY CAN’T ALL LEVERS BE PUSHED TO
THEIR FULLEST EXTENT?
There are always trade-offs given the constraints inrealistic scenarios. Accelerating the developmentof new technology comes with a significant pricetag, that will need to be borne by players across theaviation system.
If airlines are investing in new aircraft, they may
have less ability to also invest heavily in sustainableaviation fuel scale-up. Likewise, some significant
decisions need to be made: does it make more
sense to have a singular focus on traditional liquidsustainable aviation fuels, or wait for electric orhydrogen aircraft to be available?
The reality is the sector will need to investigate all
options and pursue those that make the most sense,but there is unlikely to be bandwidth, financing or
resources to push all levers to their full extent at
once. The scenarios presented here are therefore
a mix of these levers to demonstrate what might bepossible and realistic.
The aviation sector is not in direct control of all
mitigation measures. Technology, operations and air
traffic management (ATM) enhancements will have toplay their role but are not the one silver bullet to getto the industry’s ambitious goals.
The energy question is central. The sector is highly
dependent upon the energy transitions that will occur

27

pathways to meeting 1.5°C, requiring a peaking of emissions
across the economy between 2020 and 2030 and a rapid
reduction in emissions following that, with net-zero emissions
by the ‘mid-century’.
For hard-to-decarbonise sectors such as air transport,
meeting the 1.5°C goal and keeping a small percentage ofoverall human emissions will be a major challenge. For
aviation to play a role in helping to achieve the 1.5°C pathway,
it is likely that global aviation would need to reach net-zeroemissions in the middle years of the century. This is in linewith the projected 2050 situation outlined in this report,
finding that aviation could reach net-zero emissions by
mid-century (with the right support from Governments andthe energy sector, and removing residual CO2 through offset
options), but assumes all other sectors also make aggressive
cuts in CO2 emissions in line with their technical ability to do
so. Governments are now taking action and setting ambitious
climate targets.
However, aviation will not be in a position to reduce emissions
fast enough to meet earlier 2030 projections at a global
level — the technical options and scale-up of sustainableaviation fuels are not going to be achieved as quickly as someother sectors are able to complete this.
Some regions are in a position to move faster than others, so
2030/35 reductions may materialise faster than in other partsof the world.

around the globe to fight climate change for the global
economy. While collaborations amongst the aviation
stakeholders is a must, public policy support, politicalwillingness, and early engagement with energy
providers are also needed to incentivise the mix of
options that the aviation sector needs to perform its
transition towards ambitious goals. It is therefore
important that aviation is taken into account in thedevelopment of those energy transition strategies tomaximise the opportunity to meet its goal.
Financing the transition of the aviation sector is also
a key question. Innovative solutions may need to be
developed to support the aviation sector with fosteredinvestments in key areas to push the mix of options
that the sector urgently needs. All options should beconsidered in a balanced way offering the flexibility
to the sector to adapt and transition while taking into
account the various approaches that are possible
through the basket of measures.
More concretely, efforts in technology development(research and technology) to continue improving
the energy efficiency of vehicles and flights haveto be maintained and even increased, new policy
frameworks may have to be created to incentivise
the use of sustainable aviation fuels and alternative
energies and to facilitate a smooth and affordable
transition to carbon neutrality.

28

Waypoint 2050

Waypoint 2050

29

30

Waypoint 2050

TRAFFIC FORECASTS
AIR TRANSPORT HAS SEEN A REMARKABLE GROWTH IN TRAFFIC OVER THE
107 YEARS IT HAS PROVIDED COMMERCIAL SERVICES. THIS HAS BOTH DRIVEN
AND BENEFITED FROM A RISE IN LIVING STANDARDS AROUND THE WORLD.
THE DEREGULATION OF THE INDUSTRY, FIRST IN THE UNITED STATES, THENEUROPE AND IN OTHER COUNTRIES HAS LED TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
MOBILITY AND THE BENEFITS OF THAT CONNECTIVITY HAVE BEEN FELT BY
MORE AND MORE IN SOCIETY.
There are still preconceptions that air travel is the reserveof the rich, but while wealthy people do use airline services
more often than lower income (in line with wealthier people
generally owning larger houses, driving bigger cars andconsuming more products and services), there is no doubtthat the increasing affordability of air travel has opened
opportunities for billions more citizens across the economic
spectrum. Not to mention provided jobs within aviation andmany industries the sector supports.
When trying to forecast how traffic may evolve over the
coming 30 years, hundreds of variables come into play.
Historically, air travel on a global level has tended to double
every 15 years. But how reliable is this metric for future
growth? The traffic forecasting group looked at a number ofdrivers for traffic growth:»» Demographic trends, including aging populations in a
number of traditionally large aviation markets.
»» Economic circumstances and living standards
improvements.
»» The cost of travel.
»» Capacity constraints, particularly in key regions.
»» Regional variations of growth based on underlying
economic growth projections.
»» A need to re-baseline forecasts based on the severe
impact of the Covid-19 shutdown on even long-term traffic
growth in aviation.

The central forecast for passenger
demand growthWith an annual growth rate average of around 3.1%, theWaypoint 2050 central traffic forecast scenario (22 trillion
revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) in 2050, 2.5 times
higher than 2019 levels of 8.49 trillion RPKs) is reflectiveof a continuation of changes in population, economic
development and other demographic factors such as age
structure (an aging population resulting in a reduction in
the number of potential flyers in countries such as China,
Germany, Italy, Russia and Japan. And an increase due to more
‘flying-age’ population in Mexico, Canada, India, Indonesia,
United States and Brazil). The last decade has seen aboveaverage growth patterns which, even absent the Covid-19
situation, will likely have slowed in the coming decades. Thatis reflected in this central forecast.
This scenario is influenced by strongest drivers of air markets
in Africa over the coming 20 years, significant headwinds toair market expansion in several countries due to populationand demographics, particularly the ex-Soviet states. The
biggest expected change in absolute passenger numbers
from this source is forecast to be in the United States. Thereis also some potential for generation of demand due to pricestimulation if markets are opened up. Demographic factors
will be significant constraints in Spain, Italy, Germany
and Russia.

In order to avoid gratuitous complexity, the Waypoint 2050
project has concentrated on one central forecast, with an
upper and lower alternative.

Modelling
The W2050 Project used a hybrid modelling approach for fleet evolution and CO2 emissions
estimations through the study period. The passenger and belly freight operations weremodelled using detailed aircraft-specific fleet evolution modelling as described in the section‘Methodology of Waypoint 2050 analysis’. This segment of the aviation market accounts forapproximately 90% of total CO2 emissions. The remaining CO2 emissions, comprised of dedicatedfreighters (about 8-9% of total CO2 emissions) and general/business aviation (about 1-2% of total
CO2 emissions), were modelled using simplified modelling approaches. This modelling hybrid
approach was deemed fit for purpose for projections of emissions through and beyond 2050.
Any inaccuracies in the resulting CO2 emissions estimations are expected to be well within thelevel of uncertainty driven by other factors such as future aviation demand.

Waypoint 2050

31

Waypoint 2050 RPK forecasts 2015 – 205032
Three scenarios were developed to address a range of potential growth options. The central scenario has been used for most of theanalysis in this study.

Revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), billions

30

25

H
C

20
H

WAYPOINT
2050 TRAFFICFORECAST: HIGHC

WAYPOINT
2050 TRAFFICFORECAST: CENTRALLWAYPOINT
2050 TRAFFICFORECAST: LOW

L

15

10

5

HISTORICAL

0
2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Compound annual growth rates
ScenarioL
Low growth

C
Central scenario

H
High growth

Description

RPKs in 2050

20192050

20192030

20302040

20402050

Protectionism deepens along witha reduction in mobility on top of
Covid-19 impact.

15 trillion

2.3%

0.6%

2.8%

2.3%

Continuation of historical trends,
but a reduction compared with recent
high-growth and taking into accountthe impact of Covid-19.

22 trillion

3.1%

3.1%

3.2%

3.1%

Return to globalisation with acontinuation of high growth trends
seen in recent years, but from a revisedbase due to the impact of Covid-19.

25 trillion

3.3%

3.7%

3.4%

3.3%

Exploring lower and higher scenarios
Under the Waypoint 2050 low traffic scenario (15 trillion
RPKs in 2050), protectionism in trade and migration deepens
with substantially lower generation of demand due to pricestimulation, accompanied by a slower recovery from Covid-19
with more hesitant return to travel. Passenger numbers may
increase at a greater rate than RPKs, as travellers prefer to staycloser to home.
The Waypoint 2050 high traffic scenario (25 trillion RPKs
in 2050) assumes resilient growth including a “return toglobalisation”, despite challenges; a change in age structure:
decline in propensity to travel in countries such as China,
Germany, Italy, Russia, Japan and an increase in traffic in
Mexico, Canada, India, Indonesia, US, Brazil; and substantial
potential for generation of demand due to price stimulation
if markets are opened. This scenario is a continuation of thehigh traffic growth seen in the last decade and would requirea very rapid and early bounce back from the Covid-19 impact:
a rapid deployment of vaccines and reduction in travel
restrictions in the coming 2-3 years, but more importantly arapid return to long-haul travel following the slowdown.

32

Waypoint 2050

Regional RPK forecasts 2019 – 2050 (index 2019, pre-Covid-19)33
Taking the central scenario, this graph shows which regions will demonstrate the most growth over the timeframe. Interpolated
and extrapolated from regional shares in 2019 and 2039.
3,5

Revenue passenger kilometers (in trillion RPKs)
Index= 100 in 2019

ASIA PACIFIC
MIDDLE EAST
3,0

AFRICA

2,5

LATIN AMERICANORTH AMERICAEUROPE

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0
2015

2020

2025

2030

Developing scenarios
To develop and investigate potential CO2 emissions pathways
to 2050, several sources of traffic forecasts were reviewed andconsolidated into consensus scenarios by the cross-industry
working group. These sources included:»» ICAO Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection(CAEP) CO2 Emissions Trends, based on ICAO traffic
forecasts from 2016 and 201934.
»» IATA 20-year Air Passenger Forecast predicts passenger
demand by looking at such factors as the emerging middle
class in developing countries, diverging demographic
outlooks and further liberalisation of aviation markets. It
assesses growth factors on 4,000 individual country pairs
and forms a robust analysis on a country, region and global
basis35. This was updated in 2021 to account for further
evidence in the recovery from Covid-19 following initialassessments used in the first edition of Waypoint 2050.
»» ACI World Airport Traffic Forecasts 2019—2040 provides
insights into the future evolution of air transport demandacross the world. Using 2018 as reference year, theprojections extend to 2040 and are presented on a global,
regional and national level36.
»» Airbus Global Market Forecast (GMF) for 2019-2038 offers aforward-looking view of the air transport sector’s evolution,accounting for factors such as demographic and economic
growth, tourism trends, oil prices, development of new andexisting routes37.
»» Boeing Commercial Market Outlook includes aircraft
demand influenced by underlying structural changes andcurrent market dynamics. The forecast considers detailed
market specific drivers in each region38.

2035

2040

2045

2050

2055

»» IEA Energy Technology Perspectives published inJune 201739.
Each of these forecasts produced their own scenarios, withthe range of aviation traffic forecasts (revenue passenger
kilometres) considered in the W2050 analysis fairly wide:
between 14 trillion revenue passenger kilometres in 2050
(the IEA B2DS scenario) to over 40 trillion RPKs in 2050 (thehighest IATA scenario). Once the impact of Covid-19 started tobe better understood, the traffic forecasting working groupdeveloped a consensus view on how these existing projections
may change and adopted a revised set of forecasts which areused for this report.

Consideration: economic growth andunderlying living conditions
One of the central challenges of forecasting air travel markets
is assessing the intrinsic link between travel and living
standards for different countries. There is a clear relationshipbetween the number of trips per capita of a country eachyear and that country’s standard of living. The size ofeach bubble is proportional to each country’s population.
The living standards (GDP per capita) drive the generalrelationship along with additional factors, including
the cost of air travel (which is partly a function of thedegree of air market liberalization in a given market), a
country’s geographical location and the availability oftravel alternatives, as well as its inherent attractiveness as adestination. The combination of these factors explains why
inhabitants of some countries on average travel more often
or less often than would be expected based on their level of
GDP per capita alone.

Waypoint 2050

33

Range of RPK forecasts 2015 – 205040
Range of forecasts reviewed for consolidation into consensus scenarios. Existing forecasts extrapolated to 2050 if they did notinclude those latter years already. For illustrative purposes only.
40

W2050 HIGH (WITH COVID19 IMPACTS)
W2050 CENTRAL (WITH COVID19 IMPACTS)

Revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs)

35

W2050 LOW (WITH COVID19 IMPACTS)
IEA / RTS

30

IEA / 2DS
IEA / B2DS

25

IATA BASELINE (2018)20

PRE-COVIDFORECASTS

IATA UP (2018)
IATA DOWN (2018)15

ICAO (2018) (CAEP/11)
AIRBUS (2017-2050)

10BOEING (2018-2038)
5

0
2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Propensity to travel relationship to standards of living, 2018 41

Analysis implies that air travel markets will grow most quickly in fast-growing but less-developed countries and will be mostsluggish in slow-growing but richer countries.
SINGAPORE

2018 air passengers per capita to / from / within country

10.00

UK
USA
JAPAN
1.00

CHINA
ETHIOPIA

INDIA

0.10
BANGLADESHNIGERIA

0.01
1,000

10,0002018 GDP per capita (2010 $US and 2018 population)

100,000

34

Waypoint 2050

Growth in air travel comparisons, 1990-2018 42
As living standards increase, aviation activity is also expected to grow. Countries with comparatively low standards of living atpresent, but that are forecast to improve strongly over the coming 20 years, are likely to see the most rapid increases in per capita
air travel on average.

EAST ASIA & PACIFICEUROPE & CENTRAL ASIA
LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN

Passenger carried per Capita (1990-2018)

1,00

MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICANORTH AMERICA
SOUTH ASIA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
HIGH INCOME
LEAST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES:UN CLASSIFICATION
LOW & MIDDLE INCOME

0,10

LOW INCOME
LOWER MIDDLE INCOME
MIDDLE INCOME
UPPER MIDDLE INCOME
0,01
500

5,000

50,000GPD per Capita (1990-2018)

In general, countries above the trend are often islands andtourist destinations (such as the Maldives, Seychelles andBahamas), trade hubs (such as Hong Kong and Singapore), or
just a long way from anywhere (such as New Zealand). On theflip side, countries below the trend to be those where there
is limited liberalisation / high prices in the air travel markets(such as in Africa) or other substitutes to air travel such as
high-speed rail in a small number of markets.
Once a country reaches a certain level of living standards— approximately $20,000 per capita — further gains inincomes tend not to be associated with as much increasein the number of trips taken on average by its inhabitants
each year. For those countries above this income / living
standard threshold, future growth in air travel will be driven
less by future economic development and increases in living
standards, and more by the other main drivers of air travel inthe long run: population growth, including any changes to thedemographic structure of the population, and future changes
in the price of air travel.
For countries below the $20,000 threshold level ofliving standards, however, a given increase in incomes
would be expected to have a bigger effect and produce a
proportionately larger rise in air travel per capita. In analysis
of aviation activity per capita vs. GDP per capita as time series
from 1990-2016 by regions and groups of countries. It showsthat, as living standards increase, aviation activity is also
expected to grow. It follows that countries with comparatively
low standards of living at present, but that are forecast to
improve strongly over the coming 20 years, are likely to see
the most rapid increases in per capita air travel on average.
While these air travel markets may be small at present, they
are the growth markets of the future.

Based on these factors, it is expected that air travel markets
will grow most quickly in fast-growing but less-developed
countries and will be most sluggish in slow-growing but
richer countries.
Despite some challenging near-term outlooks, the emerging
market powerhouses of China, Mexico and Turkey are amongthe 26 countries forecast to join the ranks of high-income
countries over the coming 20 years. Brazil and Russia wereboth on the cusp of the World Bank’s high income thresholdin 2014 but have slipped following the ongoing domestic
recessions. They are expected to now surpass the threshold in
the early 2020s.
As to be expected, the economies whose living standards
are forecast to increase the fastest over the coming 20 years
are expected to be amongst those to see their air travel
markets grow the fastest too. Economic development in sevencountries — notably Cambodia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka — isexpected to translate into air travel market growth in excess
of 5% per year over the coming 20 years.
That said, it is not all about growth rates. Levels of activity
matter too, particularly when countries are starting from avery low base of living standards. Many of the less developed
countries in Africa will not be mature markets in 2035.
Nonetheless, sustained fast rates of growth in GDP per
capita will continue to drive air demand for a long time into
the future.
In terms of growth, economic development alone is expected
to drive air travel to a lesser extent in the highly-developed
countries. Future improvements in living standards in the G7group of countries are estimated to translate into air travel
growth of just 0.6-1.3% per year over the coming 20 years. Thatsaid, given the higher starting points of the highly-developedWaypoint 2050

countries, even reasonably modest rates of growth willcorrespond to sizeable increases in living standards and air
travel in absolute terms. This underlines that such markets,
while more mature and developed, will remain important
markets for air travel expansion well into the future.
Interestingly, the number of flights taken per capita in Europe,
North America, Australia and New Zealand will likely plateau
in the coming years — despite modestly rising income levels,
there is a limit to the number of extra flights citizens areminded to take. Growth rates in these economies tend to comefrom increases in population, including through migration,rather than increase in the number of flights per capita.
There is a clear distinction between advanced and emerging
economies. India tops the pile of the large emerging market
economies, with improvements in living standards alone
expected to translate into air market growth of around 4.9%
a year over the next 20 years. Indonesia and China are also
towards the top, with economic development alone expected
to underpin air travel growth of 3.6%-3.7% respectively
each year.
Economic development in other large emerging market
economies, including Vietnam (4.8% per year) and Turkey(2.2%), is expected to drive substantial air market growth overthe next two decades.

35

over the next 20 years will, all else being equal, have morepotential for growth in air travel than a country whose
population is projected to expand less significantly, or evento decline.
Population projections produced by the United Nations (UN)shine a light on how populations are projected to changeover time. Africa stands out as the region set for the biggest
increase in population over the next twenty years. Most of the
top 20-ranked countries by projected population increase inpercentage terms between 2015 and 2035 are African. Nigeria
is another notable example, with a projected population
increase of 112 million (more than the present-day populationof the Philippines). Altogether, Africa is expected to accountfor over 40% of global population growth over the next twenty
years, with an increase of almost 635 million people.
In absolute terms, India is projected to see by far the biggest
change in population over the period, an increase of almost
250 million between now and 2035 (equivalent to the current
population of Indonesia, which itself is the world’s fourth mostpopulous country).

Consideration: demographics

With the notable exception of Japan, the most acutepopulation challenges are in Europe, particularly in the exSoviet states. Four countries are projected to see double-digit
percentage declines in their populations between now and2035, including Bulgaria (-14%) and Ukraine (-12%).

Establishing the link between living standards and individual
propensities to fly by country is a key piece of the puzzle.
However, scaling these estimates up to country pairand global totals also requires an understanding of how
population growth will affect air travel demand. It is clear thata country with population projected to expand significantly

The UN’s projections are an obvious place to start but using
them to predict how air passenger markets will evolve
over time requires a further understanding of how the age
structures of the populations will change. This stems from thefact that, by and large, it is people in the working-age groups(15-64) that are most likely to fly.

36

Waypoint 2050

Ratio of travellers by age group to population by
age group, 2012 43
In a UK Civil Aviation Authority survey of passengers, the 25-34
age group account for 21.5% of air passengers but only
comprised 13.2% of the total population. By contrast, despite
comprising around 17% of the total population, the over-65 age
group only constituted around 10% of air travellers. Following
Covid-19, we expect hesitation for travellers in slightly younger
age groups (~55+) to continue for some time.
1.8
1.6
1.4

“Overrepresented
age groups”

1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6

“Underrepresented
age groups”

0.4
0.2

75+

65 to 74

60 to 64

55 to 59

45 to 54

35 to 44

25 to 34

20 to 24

15 to 19

0 to 14

0.0

Global passenger surveys suggest that there is significant
variation in traveller characteristics by region. However, there
is a high confidence level that people in older age groups
are less likely to fly. Accordingly, countries with populations
projected to age considerably over the coming 20 years
are likely to see corresponding reductions in the average‘propensity’ to fly, which will have implications for air
travel demand.
Age structures vary widely around the world. Africa stands
out as having by far the lowest old-age dependency ratio(the number of people over the age of 65 compared with thenumber of people of working age). By virtue of the continent’s
young population, it is projected to remain low into the mid2030s too. By contrast, with an old-age dependency ratioof over 26, Europe is the most top-heavy continent in termsof demographics, closely followed by North America. Bothregions are projected to become increasingly top-heavy as
their populations age over the coming 20 years.
Indonesia and India stand out as large economies with thelowest old-age dependency ratios. While their ratios areprojected to increase in the future, they will remain low
relative to other countries. At the other end of the scale,Japan is the country with the oldest population structurein the world. As this gap grows, this demographic shift will
have serious implications for Japanese air travel markets.
Germany’s population is also projected to age significantly
over the period; the largest for any major economy.
The legacy of the one-child policy contributes to China’s
demographic outlook. From being broadly in line withother large emerging markets at present, China’s old-age

Old-age dependency ratio44
The number of people over the age of 65 compared with thenumber of working age people who can support them in retirement. The current global old-age dependency ratio of 15.9
indicates that for every 100 people of working age (20-64) in theworld there are 15.9 people aged over 65.

Global

2019

2030

15.9

20.5

Africa

7.6

8.4

Asia

14.3

19.7

Europe31.3

40.6

Latin America and Caribbean

14.8

20.1

North America

27.7

36.4

Indonesia

10.2

15.4

India

11

14.1

Japan

51

57.7

Germany

36.1

47.7

China

17.7

27.4
6.5

Kenya

5.1

Ethiopia

7.9

7.7

Australia and New Zealand

27.1

34.9

Eastern Europe

26.5

35.6

Western Europe

35.5

45.5

dependency ratio is projected to see the largest increase ofany emerging market over the coming 20 years.
With these factors in mind, the Waypoint 2050 analysis uses
the UN’s population projections broken down by country andby age group, alongside information on the characteristics
of air travellers by age group and by region, to estimate howthese demographic effects will affect future air travel demand.
To illustrate using the example of Japan, its population is
projected by the UN to decline by around 8% between 2015
and 2035. This in itself is likely to constrain future Japanesedemand for air travel. However, given that Japan’s populationis also projected to age considerably over the same period –and older people comprise a comparatively small proportionof air travellers in the Asia Pacific region – the average‘propensity’ to fly in Japan is also expected to decline over the
next twenty years.
All told, it is estimated that the decline in Japan’s population
between now and 2035 that is relevant for purposes offorecasting air markets is more than 20%. In other words, allelse equal, the combination of population and demographicpressures is expected to reduce Japanese demand for air
travel by more than 1% on average each year between now and2035. Similar situations will be faced by countries like Russia
and Italy.
China is another notable example of a country that faces
significant headwinds from an ageing population. To beclear, increases in living standards in China are on their own
expected to underpin growth in air travel to the tune of 3.7%
per year over the coming 20 years (which is equivalent to an
more than 550 million additional Chinese passengers eachWaypoint 2050

37

Evolution of the average price of air travel 1950-201847

There has been a steady decrease in the cost of air travel for decades, although the falling prices havelevelled off in the last 20 years.
8

Boeing 707

7

1973
oil
crisis$ price per tonne kilometre

6US
deregulation

5

EU
deregulation

4

Globalfinancialcrisis

3

2

1

0
1950

1960

1970

1980

year by 2035). However, demographic pressures are estimatedto reduce the overall pace of growth by around 0.6 percentage
points per year.
The corollary, of course, is that countries with young
populations are likely to see demographics provide a boost to
air travel demand over the long term. Africa once again stands
out. Demographic considerations alone will add around 100
million potential flyers in Africa over the next 20 years.
In percentage terms, population and demographics will be
the strongest drivers of air markets in Africa over the coming
20 years. The two factors will on their own drive passenger
growth of around 3-3.5% per year in a handful of countries,
including Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia (albeit from low
bases in many cases).
By contrast, population and demographics will be significant
headwinds to air market expansion in a number of countries,
including a number of the ex-Soviet states.
Given its growing population and already large air transport
market, the biggest expected change in absolute passenger
numbers from population and demographics is forecast to
be in the United States. The combination of population anddemographics are estimated to contribute 0.3 percentage
points to air market growth each year, which is equivalent tomore than 40 million additional passengers per year by 2035.
However, population and demographic effects will reduce
the number of potential flyers most in absolute terms in
China and Japan (by 65 million and 33 million passengers
respectively). Such factors will be significant constraints in
Spain, Italy, Germany and Russia too.

1990

2000

2010

2018

Consideration: cost of travel
Developments in the price of air travel are another key factor
that will dictate how air travel markets will develop in the
future. The decline in the generalised price of air travel – thatis the cost of air travel in both monetary terms and the valueof time saved by more direct routes – has been a notablefeature of the industry over the past 60 years or so.
»» Monetary costs – on the monetary side, technologicalimprovements, better asset utilisation and productivity
gains have reduced the real costs associated with
air travel by a factor of four since 1950. Competitive
pressures, borne out of relatively low barriers to entry
in the industry, and given increased impetus from
deregulation and other factors such as the rise of lowcost carriers, have ensured that these cost reductions
have been passed on to passengers. The downward
trend in the price of air travel has paused in the last
decade, but given that fuel prices have quadrupled, thatis no surprise. It is now more affordable for more of the
population to fly than ever before. By way of example, theprice of a ticket from Boston to Los Angeles fell by 89% in
real terms between 1941 and 201245.
A downward trend in the real cost of air travel is
expected to resume in the future, mainly reflecting newtechnologies and efficiencies being realised. Indeed,by making use of lighter materials and more efficientengines, the new generation of aircraft is delivering
efficiencies of up to 25% compared with the previous
generation. These enhancements are expected to38

Waypoint 2050

translate into cost savings of around 1-1.5% per year overthe coming 20 years (the exact amount will depend on
individual fleets and the speed at which they are replacedwith newer-generation aircraft)46.

to more than halve travel times between cities, as well as
to reduce air fares by around 30% on average. Both effects
would provide significant impetus to African air markets
and economies.

Given that oil prices account for around 25% of airlines’
costs, the sharp drop in oil prices over the past year or so
has had a strong impact on the price of air travel in the
short run, although it is unknown how long this will last.

There is similar potential for reductions in air fares fromliberalisation within the South American and East Asianmarkets too. The unit price of flying a kilometre in both ofthese markets are around 15-30% higher than in similar
length sectors operated within Europe. If air markets
in these regions were to become more liberalised, unit
prices in these markets would be expected to converge
closer in line with those seen in Europe, which would
make air travel more affordable and stimulate demand.

»» Non-monetary costs – non-monetary costs related to theprice of air travel have also fallen significantly over timeand have further stimulated growth in the industry. This
mainly relates to reductions in the time that it takes totravel – time that could otherwise be spent doing a rangeof more productive things.
It is interesting to note that time reductions have not been
driven by increases in the operational speed of aircraft.
Today’s aircraft are actually slower (but more efficient)than those from the beginning of the jet age, whilecongestion at the big airport hubs as well as enhanced
security measures also need to be factored in to journey
times. Meanwhile, high-speed rail and advancements invideo-conferencing capabilities have both establishedthemselves as attractive alternatives to air travel insome cases.

Consideration: demand shift to othermodes of transport

Time savings have instead been driven by competitionin the industry and increases in the range and capabilityof aircraft, which have opened up new direct routings
that have translated into significant time savings forpassengers. The number of unique city pairs served bydirect air links has more than doubled over the past
20 years alone. Coming back to the earlier example ofBoston and Los Angeles, not only has the air fare fallen by
89% in real terms since 1941, the flight time is now nine
hours (and 11 stops) shorter.

The ‘Beyond 2 Degrees’ scenarios developed by theInternational Energy Agency (IEA) in 201749 forecast asignificant shift of passengers to high-speed rail as a way to‘force’ emissions down to the desired result, not the result of
optimisation or passenger choice modelling. It was also
driven by expected limits on contribution from sustainable
fuels towards the aviation sector. Additionally, lifecycle
carbon assessments of high-speed rail used in this analysis
do not include direct and indirect land use changes (frombuilding the rail infrastructure to meet the shift of demand
from aviation), nor the output of CO2 during construction
or maintenance.

Over the next few years the increased adoption of Boeing
787 and Airbus A350 aircraft will make it economic toconnect many more city and country pairs with direct
services. The use of such aircraft will lead to considerable
time savings for passengers and thus an effective fall intravel costs. These new aircraft have a range of around
8,000 nautical miles, lower seat costs, and fewer seats
than existing long-haul aircraft such as the Boeing 747
and 777, and so can be viable on thinner markets. This
expected fall in generalised travel costs will stimulate
demand just as much as equivalent falls in monetary fares.
»» Opportunities for liberalisation – future potential for
reductions in travel times, fuel used and therefore CO2
emissions, will also be driven by changes in regulatory
regimes. This reflects the fact that airline schedule
planners do not work with clean sheets of paper; many
airline routings are still highly influenced by where andhow often air service agreements allow them to fly rather
than where airlines would choose if left unhindered.
Data from the World Trade Organization (WTO) indicatethat air travel markets around the world became
marginally more liberal between 2005 and 2017.
However, the overarching regulatory picture remains
skewed towards restrictive. The upshot is that there isplenty of potential for further beneficial gains in the formof reduced generalised costs of air travel.
An IATA study48 underlines the potential benefits in thisregard for air travel in Africa. Liberalisation within thecontinent is estimated to have the potential in some cases

There are often calls for particularly short-haul air traffic tobe replaced by alternative modes of transport such as rail.
In many parts of the world, shifting to rail is not a viableoption, but in Europe, Japan, China and a few other examples,
there is a strong case to be made for reliable and rapid
interconnectivity between long-haul flights and short-haulrail connections.

There are also significant fiscal costs of rail construction,
usually borne by the taxpayer (European governments
provide around €50 billion per year in State aid to rail50,
compared with around €0.5 billion to aviation for public
service obligation routes) and noise impacts (rail noise
impacts an estimated 21.9 million European citizens, whereas
noise from aircraft impacts some 4.2 million)51. In addition,
the considerable lead time for rail construction needs tobe considered.
Aviation and rail should instead be seen as complementary
options as part of a global plan to facilitate domestic
and international citizen's sustainable mobility. Where
opportunities exist for the shift of some short-haul air traffic
to rail, there is a need for true intermodal operations to beprovided, with collaborative action on inter-ticketing (using
the same ticket for seamless travel on rail and aircraft); directconnections between rail stations and airports; and shared
responsibility for the passenger between the
different operators.
In fact, some proactive shifts to rail services for connecting
passengers would be a useful way to free up runway capacity.
But the construction cost (in terms of CO2 emissions, noise,and fiscal considerations) in many parts of the world would
prohibit extensive shifts. The reality is, the amount of CO2 thatwould be saved, even with an aggressive shift to rail where it
is possible, will likely only contribute to a small reduction inaviation emissions.

Waypoint 2050»» Just under 5% of aviation CO2 emissions come from flights
under 500 kilometres»» Less than 17.5% of aviation CO2 emissions come fromflights under 1,000 kilometres52»» Of these flights, 65% take place outside of Western
Europe, Japan or China (where opportunities for rail
replacement is highest)53»» Many of these flights are between secondary or
tertiary cities where construction of rail infrastructure
would be prohibitively expensive, or generate toomuch CO2 from construction, noise burdens on
residents or destruction of natural habitats.
»» Assuming even half of these flights could reasonably
shift to rail (far from certain), it would reduce aviation
CO2 emissions by around 3% (but does not include theCO2 costs of rail construction).
In addition, these are the exact types of routes where electricor hydrogen aircraft could play a useful role in the 2030s,
without the sunk CO2 costs of rail infrastructure development.
There are opportunities for some passengers, particularly
connecting between secondary and tertiary cities and longhaul operations from hub airports, to shift on to rail. This
intermodality must be built in to governmental planning ofrail infrastructure.

Consideration: using economic measures
to suppress demand
Governments have sometimes turned to economic measures
to reduce demand for air services, or to lower its growth.
It is uncertain whether these measures have a significant
dampening effect in the long term – the UK air passenger dutyis the highest aviation tax in the world and yet has not stopped
the growth in air travel (although it has likely slowed
growth somewhat).
The main impact of increasing the cost of air travel seems to
be on less affluent members of the population, reducing theiraccess to connectivity and travel services. If the objective

is to reduce CO2 emissions (rather than mobility), there are
more nuanced and effective forms of fiscal policy such as
investment in sustainable fuels and new technology.

Consideration: societal acceptabilityof air travel
Recent observations of news reports of the avoidance and / orshift away from aviation due to climate concerns (including
the “flygskam”, or “flight shame” movement) were considered,including whether those were the beginning of trends orwhether they will remain isolated. Potential implications on
traffic scenarios were also considered.
Initial estimations of the potential effect of the flygskam
scenarios exhibit some isolated reductions in aviation activity
in certain markets, but appear to be marginal on the global
scale given the underlying drivers of growth from emerging
markets (fuelled by economic activity and population
trends in the long term). Corporate customers have alsoannounced the potential for reductions in travel.
Significantly, passenger surveys have shown that, despite
concerns about the climate impact of air travel, there wasa strong desire by passengers to retain the connectivity thatcomes with aviation, but an expectation that the industry
should do everything it can to reduce its climate impact.
Passengers expect the industry and governments toconcentrate on mitigation options such as sustainable aviation
fuels and technology, rather than trying to limit air travel
supply or demand through quotas or taxes.
Given the geographic centres of most of the industry’s growth
out to 2050 and beyond, as well as the work on aviation
decarbonisation presented in Waypoint 2050, it is unlikely
there will be a significant downward shift in aviation growth
beyond the reduction in the growth forecasts presented
in this report, but it does place a challenge on the industry
to establish comprehensive environmental goals anddemonstrate it is achieving them.

Opinion of passengers shows desire to fly andfor flying to become greener, 202154
Connectivity is important to people, but so is climate action.
This puts pressure on the industry to demonstrate it can
reduce emissions and continue to serve the world.

27%

goverments shouldmake flying more
expensive toencourage people totake other transportmodes instead“In the future, I want to fly, but I would avoid it
if I did not think airlines were reducing their carbon footprint:”

26% (Strongly agree)

39

36% (Somewhat agree)

73% people have a right to makea personal choice to fly if theywant, governments should
not interfere to make flying
more expensive

40

Waypoint 2050

TECHNOLOGYAVIATION HAS A STRONG HISTORY OF SOLVING CHALLENGES THROUGHTECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION. FROM THE FIRST FORAYS INTO POWEREDFLIGHT, TO THE JET ENGINE, USE OF COMPOSITES AND 3D PRINTING,
CONSTANT IMPROVEMENTS ARE PART OF THE SECTOR’S DNA. RESPONDING TO
THE CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGE IS NO DIFFERENT.
Already, today’s aircraft operate incredibly efficiently, given
their operating conditions and speed. Each new generationof aircraft has reduced fuel use by around 15-20% comparedwith the model they replace. That trend is expected to continue
with new technology aircraft over the coming decades, but
aerospace engineers are already exploring some radical newtechnologies or configurations to realise some of those savings.

A comprehensive approach to analysing
the global fleet
In order to evaluate several scenarios for how the global fleet
might evolve, the Waypoint 2050 investigated the types oftechnology that could play a role in reducing CO2 emissions
and evaluated the likelihood of these entering service at
a given date. Aside from their own experience, several
sources were considered as input to the development of thetechnology scenarios, including: the IATA Aircraft Technology
Roadmap to 205055 ; publicly available supporting informationfrom the ICAO Committee CAEP/10 and CAEP/11 cycles; theCleanSky II project; ACARE; and additional studies focused onparticular technology scenarios for electric, hybrid-electricand hydrogen powered aircraft.
The resulting Waypoint 2050 scenarios were run through afleet evolution model developed by the German Aerospace
Centre (DLR)56 which analysed the current global fleet of
29,000 aircraft and calculated each aircraft’s current fuelburn, retirement and replacement cycle to determine when
new models may replace older ones and resulted in global
system level fuel burn and CO2 emissions for each technology
scenario. It is estimated that it takes around seven years for a
new aircraft type to achieve significant penetration into thefleet and replace the production of its predecessor.
Based on this approach, each scenario was able to be run
to determine what impact it may have on the CO2
emissions trends.

Exploring the scenarios
A broad scope of different technologies contributes to aircraft
fuel efficiency improvement and emissions reduction, mainly
from the:»» Airframe (aerodynamics, lightweight materials andstructures, equipment and systems, new configurations,energy management and electrification)»» Propulsion systems (engine architecture, thermal andpropulsive efficiency, combustor technologies, advanced
materials, electrification)
In order to reduce complexities, five technology scenarios weredeveloped to feed into the broader Waypoint 2050 scenarios
work. These were based on new aircraft being developed foreach of eight general sizes of aircraft, from 50 seats up to 650.
Over the next 30+ years, the industry will likely follow a
number of these paths as new technologies are developed
and brought to readiness before entering the market andmaking their way into the fleet. There is significant researchtaking place in the electric and hydrogen fields which may, forexample, mean that some parts of the fleet can transition to
those technologies sooner than currently expected — more inline with T5 scenario, for example.
For each scenario except T1: three cases (minimum, mean,
max efficiency improvement) were developed and assessed.
In addition, continuous technological improvement (thoseefficiency developments within an aircraft production cycle
as performance improvement packages are released forthe same aircraft type) over time of 0.2% per annum wereassessed and included in the modelling.

Waypoint 2050

41

Baseline

As older aircraft are retired, they are only replaced with aircraft that haveentered service already, or are about to enter service (for example, newgeneration families: Airbus A220, A320 neo, A330 neo, A350; ATR 76; Boeing
737MAX, 777-X; Embraer E2; etc). Using conventional liquid jet fuel or sustainableaviation fuel. This scenario is not a realistic view of the future but sets a baseline
for the fleet evolution.

T2

Conservative: evolutionary
technologies only

A new generation of aircraft follows the current models (above), but still withan evolution of the standard ‘tube and wing’ configuration with turbofan engine
propulsion system. Using conventional liquid jet fuel or sustainable aviation fuel.

T3

New configurations

Revolutionary configurations of aircraft incorporating new structural elements
such as the strut-braced wing or blended wing body; and open rotor engine
concepts. Using conventional liquid jet fuel or sustainable aviation fuel.

T4

Towards electrification

Technology shift towards electric propulsion using battery systems (likely
below 100 seats) and hybrid systems (for larger aircraft), entering the fleet from2035-2040. Will require coordinated effort by all parts of the sector — not just
manufacturers, due to new energy systems being required.

T5

Aspirational technology

A revolutionary shift towards zero emissions aircraft (potentially hydrogen) for the
narrow body segment from 100 to 200 seats. This also assumes electrification of
the small aircraft segment and hybridisation of the larger aircraft segments. This
shift would occur earlier (from 2030) and for larger aircraft than the T4 scenario.
Will require coordinated effort by all parts of the sector — not just manufacturers,
due to new energy systems being required.

T1

How different technology scenarios can impact growth in CO2 emissions57
Each of the T1-T5 middle scenarios is mapped using the central traffic growth forecast. The T1 scenario shows where CO 2
emissions would be with no further improvements in aircraft efficiency and no new technology. This chart does not include
reductions in emissions from the other pillars of action: operations, infrastructure, sustainable fuels or market-based measures.

2,500

CO2 emissions (in million tonnes)

2,000

T1
T2
T3

1,500

T4
T5

1,000

Historical emissions

500

0
2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

42

Waypoint 2050

Evolutionary technologies
The T2 scenario explores some of the evolutions in aircraft
design that could help cut fuel use and emissions for the
next generation of traditional aircraft. Potential technologies
enabling a T2 scenario (in other words, the most promisingtechnologies for next-generation aircraft before 2035):
Introduction of these technologies early and the resulting
capitalisation and penetration of the fleet will slow the
impact of aviation on our climate. As more effort is put into
reducing fuel burn and emissions, the associated gains
become smaller. Achieving more than 30-35% reduction infuel burn with current airframe-engine configuration only
will become challenging.

Technology

Some new technologies can be applied toexisting aircraft designs
A number of the evolutionary technologies described above
could also be retro-fitted onto in-service aircraft, or built
into existing types as they come off the production line
over the coming years. In fact, all aircraft are continuously
improved throughout their production life already — so thelatest aircraft that rolls out of the final assembly line will be
more efficient than the same model from several years ago,around 2-3% overall improvement over 10 years of production.
Performance improvement packages are also made available
to airlines to increase fuel efficiency during service.

Description and benefits

Readiness level, potential for entry into use

Geared turbofan
enginesContains a gearbox between the
fan and the compressor which
each rotate at most efficient
speed, improving the propulsive
efficiency of the engine.

In operation (as an option on the A320neo, A220,
Embraer E-Jet).

High pressureratio coreenginesEngines that operate at higher
pressure, reducing engine weightand improving thermal efficiency.

Will enter service with the GE9X engine on the Boeing 777X
aircraft in 2022. Technology also now available for otherengine designs.

Very high bypass
ratio engines

A larger fan allows for theengine to exhaust more air at alower speed, (increasing bypass
ratio), improving the propulsive
efficiency.

In operation (e.g. the GEnx, Trent1000, LEAP, and PW1000
engines). This level of bypass ratio, or slightly higher,
has become the standard for large commercial aircraft.
Additional increases in bypass ratio are possible with new
aircraft designs configured to accommodate larger engines— understanding there is a trade between engine efficiency(larger is good) vs. engine weight and drag (smaller is good)that limits the optimum ratio.

Composite
structures
for wing andfuselage

Large metal aircraft structures
replaced by light-weightcomposite materials.

In operation on many aircraft, but with extensive use on newmodels such as the Boeing 787, Airbus A350. Application
could be extended to even more parts of the aircraft.

Wingtip devices

Small structures mounted
on the wingtips to improveaerodynamics.

In operation on most aircraft today, but improved models arecontinually being developed to improve efficiency further.
Some older aircraft without such devices can have themretro-fitted — see the operations section.

Riblets

Small grooves on the aircraft
surface which reduce the dragcaused by flying through the air(inspired by shark skin).

Have been tested to be efficient, but some endurance issues
remain before being able to enter into operation, could beavailable soon also for retrofit: at TRL8.

Active load
alleviation

Gust and manoeuvre load
forces are reduced by suitableflap deflection; this allows lessmassive wing structure.

Technology available, mass benefits can be used for a new
aircraft design.

Waypoint 2050

Technology

Description and benefits

Readiness level, potential for entry into use

Structural healthmonitoring

Sensors detecting damages in theaircraft structure; this allows lessmassive structures.

Technology available, mass benefits can be used for a new
aircraft design.

Fuel cells for
onboard power

More efficient onboard electrical
power generation by fuelcells instead of engine-driven
generators.

The technology has been under active development for someyears, with renewed interest. Main challenge is that fuelcells can add weight and also require hydrogen (see later
section on hydrogen for aviation).

Advanced fly-bywire systems

Digital flight control systems
enabling advanced flight control
and navigation.

Continuous improvement.

43

44

Waypoint 2050

Revolutions in aircraft configurations
The so-called ‘tube and wing’ is the standard configurationof conventional aircraft, a tubular fuselage with two
predominantly flat wings on either side — sometimes fromthe bottom of the fuselage, sometimes the top. Aircraft have

had this configuration from the very start of commercial
aviation and it has been an efficient and reliable basis for all
developments in aircraft design since. However, under the T3
scenario, a range of other options were explored that can bringemissions reductions beyond an evolution of the tube and wing.

Technology

Description and benefits

Readiness level, potential for entry into use

CanardThe canard configuration describes a mostly
small fore plane that is placed in front of
the main wing of a fixed-wing aircraft. The
lifting surface of a canard is mostly used toreplace the horizontal tail plane, which is the
only drag-producing downward lift surface.
Canard foreplanes can also be used for threesurface configurations (foreplane, central wing,horizontal tail plane). With modern flight controls
even a no-vertical-tail design could be realised.

Aircraft with canard configurations are mainly
found in the military area. A civil canard aircraft
could be available around 2035-40, similar toother radically new configurations.

Blended wing bodyHybrid wing body

A blended- or hybrid-wing body (BWB/HWB)
configuration is a fixed-wing aircraft without clear
differentiation between wings and fuselage. Wideairfoil-shaped bodies and efficient high-lift wings
enable significant improvements of the lift-todrag ratio compared with conventional aircraft.
As the entire plane is designed to generate lift,
high fuel savings are expected.

Flying BWBs exist for military purposes.
Numerous research institutes are working on civil
BWB designs, for a long time focusing on designs
for over 400 passengers, but recently smaller
designs of 100-150 seats could also be optimised,with a potential entry into service around 2035,
whereas a large BWB could be expected around2040. A KLM /TU Delft project looks at a flying
V configuration and is undergoing scale model
flight demonstrations.

Strut-braced wing
Truss-braced wing

The strut-braced wing is a concept utilising a
structural wing support to allow for larger wingspans without increases in structural weight.
By increasing the span the induced drag is
reduced and therefore the engine performancerequirements can be reduced as well. The highwings allow for larger engine sizes, e.g. open
rotors. The increased wingspan may also requirea redefinition of current airport compatibility
categories or the design of foldable wings.

A strut-braced design with conventional
turbofan engines is not an extremely radical
design change and could be realised for entry
into service in 2030-35. Combination with open
rotors could be envisaged for an entry into
service (EIS) around 2040.

Box-wing

The box wing configuration, which was proposed
first by Ludwig Prandtl in 1924, connects thetips of two offset horizontal wings. For a given
lift and wingspan this configuration assures
minimum induced drag and offers savings in fuelconsumption compared to conventional aircraft.

This configuration has recently been revived
in R&T projects and could also be available
around 2035-40, similar to other radically new
configurations.

Variable camberwith new control
surfaces

The camber (curvature) of the wing can bechanged during flight to optimise lift .

Currently around TRL6, this technology would
need to be applied to a new aircraft design.

Maintaining the air flow over the aircraft surface
Laminar flow
control technology turbulence-free, through suitable shaping of(natural and hybrid) aircraft surface (natural) or boundary-layer
suction (hybrid).

Currently sitting around TRL7, newdevelopment progress since 2017,
application for new aircraft design.

Waypoint 2050

Revolutions in propulsion system
There are two main types of engine used today in commercial
aviation: the turbofan and the turboprop. Each can run on
traditional fossil jet fuel, or a blend of “drop-in” sustainable

Technology

aviation fuel, i.e. fuel that has almost the same properties asfossil jet fuel, but is produced from sustainable sources.
More radical aircraft concepts and new energy sources arebeing studied for their potential to significantly
reduce emissions.

Description and benefits

Readiness level, potential for entry into use

Open rotor

Also known as unducted fan (UDF), or propfan. The
fan nacelle is removed increasing the by-pass ratio
beyond what is possible with turbofans. These engines
offer great fuel savings compared to current turbofans,
but also come with several limitations. The lack of acasing leads to higher noise emissions of the fans andnecessitates airframe strengthening for safety purposesin the event of an uncontained engine failure.

While the open rotor concept itself is several
decades old, its development was slowedby challenges to reduce noise (which havesince been resolved), but also a reduction in
the price of oil. Entry into service could takeplace around 2030.

Electric
propulsion

Instead of combustion engines, electric motors drive
conventional propellers or sets of multiple small fans.
Electric energy is stored in batteries (which however
have a penalising weight), alternatively, fuel cells areenvisaged. CO2 emissions during operations are zerofor full electric aircraft. Lifecycle emissions strongly
depend on the primary energy mix for electricity
generation. If fully renewable sources are used, they
could be close to zero as well. An additional benefit
would be the eradication of non-CO2 effects (such as
contrails and NOx emissions). Electric motors are
quieter than combustion engines, which could reduce
nuisance to airport neighbours and allow increased
operations from smaller city airports.

Small full electric aircraft up to 9 seats
are already flying (at least for test flights).
Electric aircraft up to 19 seats are planned
for the later 2020s, and regional aircraftin the 2030s. Norway has the goal of
operating all domestic and short-haul flights
electrically by 2040.

Hybrid-electric
propulsion

Hybrid-electric concepts combine the advantagesof both combustion and electric engines. While the
combustion and electric propulsion systems canbe used in combination during take-off to provide
maximum thrust, the combustion engine can bethrottled back when the aircraft is in cruise flightor descending. Combustion engines could also be
smaller and reduce on-board weight. Hybridisation
is a necessary intermediate step for larger airplanes
towards a pure electric propulsion system. Probably,
the degrees of hybridisation vary with aircraft size,
allowing smaller seat categories to be equipped witha higher degree of hybridisation than larger seatcategories. Hybrid-electric aircraft on a new airframe
body such as the Blended Wing Body can contribute toachieving CO2 emissions reductions of up to 40%.

Small aircraft (15 — 20 seats) with hybridelectric propulsion are expected during thisdecade, regional aircraft in the 2030s andpossibly larger ones from 2040.

HydrogenHydrogen is a carbon-free fuel that can be used as a
propulsion fuel in two ways:a» for combustion in conventional engines, replacing jet
fuel (including in large aircraft),b» in fuel cells an electrical power source. The weightof hydrogen as an three times lower than that of anamount of jet fuel with the same energy content,
but its volume even in liquid (cryogenic) form isfour times larger. Much larger tanks as well as
fundamental changes in the aircraft fuel system
are therefore needed.

One of the biggest challenges for hydrogenuse in aviation is its worldwide availability
at large scale, the need to produce ‘green’hydrogen and the existence of appropriate
supply infrastructure. With the global movetowards renewable energy, the plans fora worldwide use of hydrogen as an energy
carrier have become much more concrete,
and the interest in hydrogen aircraft has
risen steeply since 2019. The willingness forstrong public funding has increased again
in the debate about aviation support in theCovid-19 crisis. Technology programmes
now envisage EIS around 2035.

45

46

Waypoint 2050

Challenges in introducing radical
new technologies
Aviation is a traditionally very cautious industry, being
innovative, but also taking a long time to carefully test
and certify safety standards for new aircraft. Once thetechnologies noted above reach technical maturity and canbe commercialised, there are a few other challenges before
passengers will be able to fly on board:»» Certification and testing will be much tougher for novel
airframe configurations or propulsion systems, newcertification procedures will have to be developed forsome of them to ensure the undisputed safety level
required for commercial aviation.
»» Airlines need to be able to trust in the aircraft and thetechnology to invest: a fleet is an expensive asset that
requires very low downtime for maintenance.
Airlines may be wary of completely novel technology
with a range of new operating and maintenanceprocedures that have not been put through the rigoursof commercial service.
»» There will be added infrastructure requirements to
supply green electricity at high power on-airport, or greenhydrogen — not only will the connections and energy
sources be needed, but they may come with different‘refuelling’ times than current aircraft, and large storage
areas for battery recharge may be needed.
»» Air traffic management may need to alter procedures
if the aircraft perform differently in flight (i.e. if they
are slower than traditional jets, if they cannot react toemergency situations in the same way, or if they produce
different wake turbulence profiles).
»» The entire human support infrastructure will needre-training, from flight crews to ground handlers,maintenance staff and airline office staff.
»» Global costs for the aviation industry to adapt to emerging
energies and develop new technological solutions arelikely to be considerable in the early years.
»» New aircraft types will also need to go through a processof introduction to the public to create trust — particularly
those that look very different to aircraft currently flying.
None of these are insurmountable challenges, but they must
be considered as the industry launches into the third era of
air travel.

Electrification
With up to 230 electric aircraft concepts in development
today (although only around 30 of them for commercialscale operation)58, electric propulsion could start entering
the market in small (2 to 6 passengers) vehicles as electric
personal transportation aircraft very soon (2020–2025
timeframe). Multi-rotor vertical take-off vehicles able to carryabout four passengers could become a reality in the next few
years, with numerous projects already in progress worldwide.
While the extent of the market size is still uncertain, theseaircraft could serve as a viable alternative in certain areas— like air taxis in and around our congested cities, or air
ambulance/medevac platforms, taking advantage of their
speed, reliability and quieter operation. Although theseaircraft are not included in the scope of the Waypoint 2050
CO2 analysis, they provide an important stepping-stone tocommercial-sized aircraft.

Commuter aircraft (small aircraft in the 9-19-passenger class)will be next and several prototypes are in development oralready flying for this size of aircraft, based on retrofits ofexisting models — they would likely be ready for entry into
service after 2025.
Under Waypoint 2050 T4 and T5 scenarios, there may be an
opportunity for electrification of aircraft in the 50-100 seatcategory around the 2030-35 timeframe, including someturboprop types. This would reduce their already fuel-efficient
operations to virtually zero emissions and provide muchneeded connectivity to regional populations.
Scaling electric technologies for short-range (up to ~90
minutes), fully electric or hybrid-electric civil aircraft (in thearound 100 seat size) would rely on substantial performance
improvements in battery technology, or developments inhybrid systems, of well over seven times greater than today’shigh-density batteries.
As a novel propulsion system and radical new technology, there
are a number of challenges to scaling up electric and hybridelectric technology.
»» Key amongst them is the energy density of batteries.
Whilst developments in battery technology have been
rapid in recent years (driven in part by the accelerationof deployment of electric road vehicles such as Tesla), theamount of energy that can be packed into a battery is stillsome way off being useful in anything other than verysmall aircraft.
»» Aside from the density improvements, another key
challenge is the fact that batteries do not get lighter as theenergy is consumed, meaning that the landing weight aftera flight will be the exact same as the take-off weight. Withliquid fuel, the aircraft gets lighter as it flies and burns fuel.
This suggests that, absent some truly exceptional leaps
in battery weight / density ratio, the use of pure battery
power will likely remain with very short-haul routes.
»» Fire safety of lithium batteries has been strongly
improved over the last years. Nevertheless, strict testing
and certification processes will be needed to ensure thatelectric aircraft meet the very high safety standards ofcommercial aviation.
»» The sustainability of battery full life cycle. Althoughelectric flight will generate no CO2 in flight, the carbon andenvironmental footprint of extracting the raw materials(such as lithium), manufacturing and disposal will need to
be improved.
»» Storage and charging of the batteries in an airport
operational sense will need to be resolved but is
not complex.
A transition to electric powered aviation (i.e., the operationof all-electric or plugin hybrid aircraft) would constitute a
departure from the current aircraft technology, energy source,
infrastructure and the operation of the global aviation systemthat have been optimised largely around the use of liquid jet fuel.
Analysis, based on the T5 scenario (highly ambitious, but used
to illustrate an outside boundary for energy demand), shows
the potential demand, requirements, and costs associatedwith future electric powered aircraft. As more aircraft enter the
fleet to reach 100% of production (and deliveries) in 2045
and beyond, demand for electricity increases to approximately
110 TWh in 2050 and 250 TWh in 2060. This represents
about 2% and 3% of global aviation energy demand in 2050 and
2060 respectively.

Waypoint 2050

47

Aviation energy demand evolution
The global aviation energy demand associated with the T5 scenario, where demand for direct use of electricity from the 51-100
segment starts in 2038 after the entry into service of all-electric aircraft in this segment of the fleet.

Global aviation energy demand (in Mtoe)

700

JET FUEL(CONVENTIONAL
OR SAF)

600
500
400
300

HYDROGEN
200
100
ELECTRICITY

0
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Share of electric energy in total aviation energy:

Challenges associated with all-electric
aircraftGiven current understanding of the technical feasibility ofall-electric powered aircraft, it appears very speculativethat all-electric aircraft of greater than around 100 seats
could be technically feasible and enter service in 2045. This
analysis therefore focuses on a more realistic (while still very
challenging) 51-100 seat segment.
Even for the 51-100 seat segment several technical challenges
remain. For example, for a 70-seat turboprop aircraft
operated on a 200 nautical mile segment (around an hour’s
flight), the energy needed would be roughly 2.6 MWh (twomotors developing 1.3 MW average power output during flight
mission for an hour). Assuming an optimistic 300 Wh/kg
battery energy density, the required mass of the battery would
reach 8,700 kg which is greater than the design payload of theaircraft (approximately 7400 kg). Given the design challenges
for a 200 NM mission, battery energy density would haveto increase substantially — around seven times greater than
today’s highest density batteries — to enable such a scenario.
Alternatively, aircraft could be designed with limited design
ranges, however this would likely limit their market potential
and value.
Other studies also note technical challenges associated withscaling electric powered aircraft. If the 50-100 seat segment
is not able to make the shift to battery electric options, but
shifts to hydrogen, this would add another 4 MtH2 in 2050
(which is about +10% of that estimated in the T5 scenario for
liquid hydrogen). Destination 205059 noted that currently, thebattery’s low specific energy (or, equivalently, high weight)
would be a major constraint to the use of batteries as anaviation fuel option. The specific energy is in the range of 200

2050

2%

2055

2060

3%

watt-hours per kilogramme, which is 60 times lower than jet
fuel. Although improvements are expected, this gap is notexpected to be bridged soon.
Another important constraint is the need to have specificpower for a high discharge rate of the battery during certain
flight phases such as take-off. It was further assessed thatwhile all electric and hybrid-electric battery-based aircraft arelikely to become technologically feasible for aircraft with anincreasing number of passengers and/or growing flight range
as the specific energy of batteries increases, the introductionof these technologies for the largest aircraft and longest
ranges is not expected before 2050.

Potential demand for electricity fromfull electric less than 19 seat segment
While the 51-100 seat segment is exhibiting technicalchallenges for full electric aircraft, activity is taking place inthe less than 19-seat segment through initial aircraft research,development including the production of prototypes,
demonstration, and program announcements.
This segment represents less than 1% of total fuel use (CO2emissions) from global aviation. As such, if this segment
were to evolve towards all-electric aircraft, it could generate
additional demand for electricity of approximately 50 TWh
in 2050. Hybridisation or partial diffusion of all-electric
aircraft into the fleet could result in lower demand forelectricity. Demand for energy and electricity from thissegment of the fleet would also be dependent on forecast ofactivity (traffic) in this market segment and relative growthrate of regional air mobility.

48

Waypoint 2050

Global aviation demand for electricity(for direct use in aircraft)

Economy-wide productionof low-carbon electricity

80,00074,095

Electricity (in TWh)

70,00062,30060,00047,59550,00040,00030,00020,00010,0000

110 TWh
W2050

T5470 TWhT5+ <19 seat andplug-in hybridRole of electric energy storage in plugin
hybrid electric propulsion (HEP) aircraft
Given the significant challenges associated with developing
larger all-electric aircraft, hybrid electric propulsion (HEP)
aircraft may provide an intermediate technically feasible
step towards full electrification. The hybridisation of hybridelectric propulsion can be achieved by combining an internal
combustion engine or fuel cell with electric motors andbatteries. The advantages of HEP compared with traditional
propulsion are: (a) increasing the overall aircraft efficiency; (b)increasing aircraft reliability, power distribution/quality, andflight range; (c) emissions and noise reduction; (d) capacity ofextending the market to smaller airports60.
The potential demand for electric energy (uplift) depends on
the power architecture of the aircraft. Only the series hybrid,
parallel hybrid and series/parallel hybrid architecture have anenergy storage capability (e.g., battery) which may use electricity
as direct input in the case of plugin hybrid electric aircraft. In aturbo electric hybrid architecture, all the input energy into theaircraft is derived from the combustion of jet fuel.
The demand for electric energy (uplift) is largely driven by thearchitecture, design and operations of the aircraft. The balanceor ratio of the energy stored in the batteries and total energy
stored in fuel and batteries is referred to as the hybridisation
factor. Several studies that have explored various hybrid
electric architectures and ranges of hybridisation factors.
Using the hybrid electric propulsion aircraft scenario based on
T4 hybrid systems (100-500 seat), fleet diffusion scenario, andparametric hybridisation factor assumption from 1% to15% (assuming fully charged battery at block-off), the additional
demand for electricity from plugin hybrid electric aircraft
could range from approximately 20 to 300 TWh in 2050.

Overall demand for electricity
Introducing fully electric aircraft in the 50-100 seat range will
require around 110 TWh in 2050. Adding to that a shift in all
9-19 seat aircraft, and a fraction of the energy demand from

SDS
(IEA)

NZE
(IEA)

NZE
(IRENA)plug in hybrid electric propulsion aircraft, the total demand forelectricity may reach 470 TWh in 2050. This analysis does notinclude smaller-scale electrification for urban air mobility orother applications at the sub-9-seat scale.
In context, demand for electric energy from global aviation (110470 TWh in 2050) could represent about 0.1 to 1% of 2050 global
production of renewable electricity in context of the IEA SDS61
and NZE62 scenarios as well as IRENA’s NZE scenario63.

Requirements and costs (investments)
associated with electric powered aviation
Requirements associated with the potential future use ofelectric powered aircraft on airlines/operators, airports, andOEMs were also considered and assessed.
»» Operators: cost of electricity. Operating costs ofelectric aircraft could potentially be competitive with
jet fuel costs. Under the T5 scenario, the total cost fromelectricity in 2050 could be approximately $8bn at today’sunit cost of electricity ($69/MWh) and drop to $3.9bn
given 2050 projected unit cost of electricity ($34/MWh).
For context, the cost of meeting that energy demand with
jet fuel at today’s $635/mt64 could reach $7.6bn.
»» Operators: aircraft (fleet) related requirements andcosts. To meet potential demand for all-electric powered
aircraft, approximately 3,800 aircraft in the 51-100 seatmarket segment may be needed by 2050. There are also
currently around 1,750 aircraft in the 9-19 seat segment
in service around the world which could be the optimum
use of electric aviation — this new energy source could
potentially grow this market for services to and fromsmaller and remote communities65.
»» Operators: turnaround time related costs. Increased
operating costs (or loss of revenues) could result fromincreased turnaround time during recharging. Whilst
this could be mitigated due to the use of a concept such as
swappable battery packs, there would be some logisticaland possibly certification challenges for this option asWaypoint 2050

well. These increased operating costs may be mitigatedby reduced decreased maintenance costs from electric
powered systems (e.g., motors).
»» Aerospace manufacturers: battery technology. Batteryenergy density would need to increase substantially toallow for future all-electric aircraft with size and range
capabilities that could contribute to noticeably reducing
CO2 emissions. Battery energy density will be a key driverand limiting factor of future all-electric aircraft in termsof size and range capabilities. The energy density of jet
fuel is about 12,000 Wh/kg. In 2018, best available li-ion
battery cells had a specific energy of around 250 Wh/kg66.
Short-range electric aircraft demand battery pack specificenergies of 750-2,000 Wh/kg. Based upon a continuationof the historical increase in specific energy, current levelsof specific energy of 250 Wh/kg for advanced Li-ion
battery cells, and a packing efficiency of 80%, a battery
pack specific energy of 800 Wh/kg could potentially bereached at around midcentury.
»» Aerospace manufacturers: high-temperature
superconducting electric motors. Advancements inaircraft technologies would also be required to enable
all-electric powered aviation for larger aircraft (than19 seat segment). Regional jets with about 50 seats arelikely to require significantly improved mainstream
technology, narrow-body aircraft with 100 seats andabove may depend upon lightweight high-temperature
superconducting electric motors due to the intrinsicallyhigh weight of conventional electric motors and the
difficulty in providing cooling.

A renaissance for hydrogen
Hydrogen could play an increasingly important role insustainable aviation over the coming years, with a range of uses.
Importantly, it is a vital component in the production of manysustainable aviation fuels (particularly power-to-liquid) andincreasing uses of these will require more hydrogen production.
But hydrogen could also potentially be used as a direct energy
source in aircraft as well: either through the use of hydrogenfuel cells to generate electricity for propulsion, or propulsion
being delivered through direct burning of hydrogen-in gaseous,or liquid form.
Liquid hydrogen is considered to be one major alternative
energy carrier for aviation by various research projects. Flighttesting and product development of hydrogen-fuelled aircraft
has also advanced considerably. Synergies in technology
development from the automotive industry concerning thedevelopments of cryogenic composite tanks as well as fuel cells
may be expected.
Assuming the use of so-called green hydrogen (where
electrolyser production plants use low carbon electricity) or
blue hydrogen (carbon emissions are captured and stored
in production), the use of hydrogen can bring with it a range
of environmental benefits. It is completely zero-carbon, will
reduce particulate matter emissions and greatly reduces NOx.
The use of hydrogen fuel cells for smaller aircraft will alsosignificantly reduce contrail formation due to the absence ofparticulate matter. Depending on the system and size of aircraft,it could reduce climate impact by 70-90% compared withsimilar traditional aircraft. But there is a lot of work to be done ifhydrogen-powered aircraft are to become a commercial reality.

49»» Airports: Infrastructure. The operation of all-electricor plugin hybrid propulsion aircraft could rely on several
operational concepts for battery charging:»» Battery plug-in chargers: Like fuel-refilling stations.
Chargers for small aircraft through external 60 kW
direct current (DC). Operations or larger aircraft (e.g.,
B737-800) would need amounts of battery energy inthe order of 3.5 to 7 MWh, resulting in long recharging
time, incompatible with current/typical turnaroundtimes. Current 90kVA power lines could be multiplied
but would require added hardware costs. Issues
with peak power required from the grid resulting in
additional costs.
»» Battery swapping stations: Approach could address
peak charging issues but would require additional
spare battery packs adding to acquisition cost,
increased logistic costs from transport of batteries
from and to the aircraft. BSS may also require
amendments to aircraft certification as battery
swapping procedures could be considered a major
repair or alteration.

50

Waypoint 2050

Aviation energy demand evolution70
The global aviation energy demand associated with the T5 scenario, where demand for direct use of hydrogen from the 101-200
seat segment starts in 2035.

Global aviation energy demand (in Mtoe)

700

JET FUEL(CONVENTIONAL
OR SAF)

600
500
400
300

HYDROGEN
200
100
ELECTRICITY

0
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

Share of hydrogen in total aviation energy:

Recent analysis by McKinsey for the European CleanSky 2
project69 found that some significant challenges remain to theadoption of hydrogen by air transport:
Completely new aircraft systems would need to be
developed. Liquid hydrogen requires being stored at very low
temperatures (around -253°C, requiring special tanks) andhas a greater volume-to-energy ratio than traditional jet fuel,although lower weight-to-energy.
A liquid hydrogen tank would need to be around four times
the size of the equivalent jet fuel tank and completely
different on-aircraft fuel distribution systems and engines
would be required.
»» Short-haul aircraft could use hydrogen fuel cells to power
distributed electric engines, with likely a very small
increase in cost per passenger. This energy source
would lead to a significant reduction in emissions, toalmost zero.
»» For flights longer than this, special tanks (that cannot
be located in the wing–like traditional fuels) require astretched fuselage to carry the same payload, but witha range penalty. These aircraft would be equipped withhydrogen combustion engines, burning the hydrogen in
the same way as jet fuel is used today. Whilst this helps
with eliminating CO2 , reducing NOx and other emissions,
it will likely mean increases in water vapour emissions
due to the nature of burning hydrogen.
»» Liquefaction of hydrogen requires an investmentof energy approximately equal to a third that of
the chemical energy stored in the fuel. Alternative
thermodynamic cycles that capture this energy
on board for mission propulsion would likely be part ofthe solution.
»» It is unlikely that hydrogen would be the best option for
medium- and long-range aircraft before 2050, as theextra fuselage volume required and heavy tanks for

2045

2050

20%

2055

2060

33%

long missions would be too costly compared with using
sustainable aviation fuels with conventional turbine
engines. However, the reduced weight of the fuel,coupled with new technology or materials for tanks couldchange this assessment and there may be a potential forblended-wing style fuselages which could house larger
tanks than the traditional tube-and-wing configuration.
Challenges associated with infrastructure requirements andimplementation as well as the constraint of the fleet
turnover should be considered in any meaningful scenario
to assess the potential contribution of liquid hydrogen
towards aviation’s decarbonisation pathways — this is further
explored below.

Waypoint 2050

Hydrogen requirements
A transition to hydrogen as a non-drop in fuel used either
through fuel cells or direct combustion would constitute a
departure from the current aircraft technology, energy source,
infrastructure and operations that have been optimised for
decades around the use of jet fuel.
The analysis, based on the T5 scenario (highly ambitious, but
used to illustrate an outside boundary for energy demand),has hydrogen being considered in the 101-210 seat segment.
Hydrogen powered aircraft entering this segment of the market
assumed entry into service in 2035, with a ramp up to 100%
share of production (new deliveries) in 2042. This assumes
that all new deliveries of 101-210 seat aircraft in 2042 and in
subsequent years are from hydrogen powered aircraft (i.e.,from all manufacturers and that drop in fuel powered aircraft
go out of production in 2042).
As more aircraft enter the fleet to reach 100% of new deliveriesin 2042 and beyond, demand for hydrogen increases toapproximately 43 MtH2 (≈5 exajoules (EJ)) in 2050 and 79
MtH2 (≈10 EJ) in 2060. This represents about 20% and 33% of
global aviation energy demand in 2050 and 2060 respectively.
In reality, a number of this size of aircraft may continue
being delivered with conventional propulsion systems (using
increasing proportions of SAF). For the purposes of thisstudy an extreme approach was used to push to a total useof hydrogen in this segment. This represents a higher-end
assessment of the likely hydrogen use by aviation in 2050.
Potential high-ambition demand for hydrogen from global
aviation (43 MtH2 in 2050) could represent about 8-15%
of future (2050) global hydrogen production. In the IEA
Sustainable Development Scenario, the global demand forhydrogen increasing sevenfold to approximately 280 Mt
by 205071. According IRENA’s World Energy Transitions
Outlook green hydrogen will play a major role in reducing
GHG emissions and making the energy transition possible.
According to the roadmap, by 2050 green hydrogen needs tohave far greater supply than today, with production reaching

Potential aviation demand for hydrogen(for direct use in aircraft)

about 400 MtH2, equivalent to 49 EJ72. In the IEA Net Zero
Emissions (NZE) Scenario, the global demand for hydrogen
would reach 528 Mt by 2050, of which 520 Mt would be lowcarbon hydrogen (broken down into 38% from fossil-basedwith CCUS and 62% from electrolysis)73. However, none ofthese scenarios predicted direct use of hydrogen in aircraft
propulsion, so the global market for hydrogen production may
be augmented to take into account aviation use.
Other studies have considered the potential role of hydrogen in
future decarbonization scenarios for the aviation sector:»» Destination 205074, that focused solely on European
aviation, estimated that demand for H2 could reduce
CO2 emissions by 60 MtCO2 in 2050, representing
approximately 24% of the Waypoint 2050 T5 scenario.
While no direct volume of hydrogen was quoted, the 24%
share is in line with the share global aviation CO2 emissions
from Europe, and therefore makes the Waypoint 2050 and
Destination 2050 scenarios comparable.
»» CleanSky 275 forecast that by 2050, aviation’s demandfor LH2 would grow to 40 to 130 MtH2 a year. While thelower bound of 40 MtH2 is in line with the Waypoint
2050 estimates, the 130 MtH2 appears to be based on a
“maximum decarbonisation” scenario and assumptions
that are far from being realistic and what appears to beinternally inconsistent with the technology roadmaps andrequirements contained in the same report.
»» In its Energy Technology Perspectives 202076, in the
Sustainable Development Scenario, IEA expects around
20% of the global hydrogen demand (i.e., 520 MtH2 by
2070) to originate from the aviation sector, however thedemand for hydrogen would be towards the production ofsynthetic kerosene (PtL) from hydrogen and CO2 (i.e., notfor hydrogen as direct source of energy by the aircraft).
The use of hydrogen for direct use in aircraft was notconsidered in the IEA analysis, but could potentially growthe market for hydrogen.

Economy-wide future (expected)
production of hydrogen

600

528

Hydrogen (in MtH2/yr)

500

400

400

250

300
200
100

43 MtH2

0
W2050

T5

51

SDS
(IEA)

IRENA
Scenario

NZE
(IEA)

52

Waypoint 2050

Requirements and costs (investments)
associated with hydrogen powered
aviation
Requirements associated with the potential future use ofhydrogen powered aircraft on airlines/operators, airports,
and OEMs were also considered and assessed. The actual
requirements and impacts on the aviation sector of atransition to hydrogen powered aircraft would be dependenton opportunities and synergies that will be offered throughthe use of hydrogen in other sectors.
»» Operators: Cost of hydrogen. According to the IEA NZE
scenario, the average cost of producing hydrogen fromrenewables drops from $3.5-7.5/kgH2 today to around$1-2.5/kgH2 in 2050, essentially about the same as thecost of producing with natural gas with CCUS. With theaddition of about $1.2/kgLH2 for distribution (if produced
offsite), liquefaction, LH2 storage and refuelling77, the unit
cost of hydrogen could drop from $4.7-8.7/kgH2 today
to $2.2-3.7/kgH2 in 2050. The resulting cost of hydrogenneeded to meet aviation demand (under the Waypoint
2050 T5 scenario) in 2050 could be approximately$170-370bn at today’s unit cost of hydrogen and drop to$90-160bn given 2050 projected unit cost of hydrogen.
For context, cost of meeting energy demand with jet fuelat today’s $635/mt could reach $65bn, making hydrogencosts 3x-6x with today’s unit cost and 1.4x-2.4x with
2050-unit costs. Depending on the prices of carbon by
2050, the gap between hydrogen and conventional jet
fuel could close. While the ATAG Waypoint 2050 study
was conducted at a global level, regional differences may
exist. Depending on technology developments, initiatives
and governments’ support, the cost of hydrogen may
drop faster in some regions: there are already concerted
private and government efforts to bring down the unit
cost of hydrogen rapidly.
»» Operators: Aircraft (fleet) related requirements andcosts. To meet the requirements associated with the
Waypoint 2050 T5 scenario, a potential of approximately
24,000 new aircraft would be required from 2035-2050
for the 100-210 seat market segment. According to the
Clean Sky 2 study on hydrogen aviation78, the aircraft
capital expenditure for hydrogen powered aircraft is
expected to be higher than for conventional aircraft
mainly due to the costs for the LH2 tank structure thatis integrated in the fuselage, the increased complexityof the fuel distribution, increased costs for propulsion,and the increased aircraft size. The total maintenancecosts for hydrogen aircraft might rise (up to 47%) due tothe larger airframe and the LH2 tanks that could require
more checks — especially in the first years of introducing
LH2 aircraft. In the long term, maintenance costs forthe propulsion system might decrease79. Aircraft capital
expenditure and maintenance costs may decrease as
further research and development continues.
»» Operators: Turnaround time related costs. Increased
operating costs (or loss of revenues) could result fromincreased turnarounds due to potentially longer
refuelling time for hydrogen powered aircraft (between
no additional turnaround time, up to a 20% increase).
Increased turnaround time could result in loss ofrevenue if airline capacity is reduced (given constant

fleet size) e.g., 7% fewer flight cycles80 or an increasein operating costs if fleet size is increased to maintainthe same capacity. However, additional research anddevelopments are being conducted to reduce these
impacts at the design stage (e.g., improvements in LH2
transfer technologies such as the Universal Hydrogen‘pod’ concept82). In addition, in some cases (i.e., aircraft
itineraries and schedules) refuelling time is not theconstraining factor in turn around time setting.
»» Airports: Infrastructure. Before hydrogen is distributed
to airports, it would have to be compressed or liquified.
The delivery of hydrogen could be performed via truck
trailers (liquid or compressed hydrogen) for smaller
airports or through a pipeline for larger airports.
When demand is low, truck trailers could be used to
distribute hydrogen to airports before they are connected
to pipelines as demand grows. This would require
additional infrastructure costs although investments
may not be aviation specific in a (regional or world)energy scenario where hydrogen generation and use are
generalised for ground transport and other applications.
In a scenario where hydrogen is liquefied at the airport,
additional renewable electricity would be required (i.e.,on the order of 300 to 570 TWh in 2050 to meet LH2
needs under T5 scenario). Once distributed at the airport,hydrogen needs to be uploaded onto the aircraft via
refuelling trucks or an alternative refuelling method likerefuelling platforms or aircraft fuel station plots. The
cost of LH2 refuelling systems may be as much as fivetimes the cost of conventional hydrant systems81, given
the need to maintain high pressure and low temperatureacross the delivery system. Some other concepts, such as
Universal Hydrogen, consider transporting hydrogen inmodular capsules over the existing intermodal container
freight network82. The introduction and operation ofhydrogen powered aircraft may also impact airport
infrastructure given the potential need to adapt airport
gate box sizes to accommodate longer aircraft. The actual
impacts on airport gate boxes and operations may be
alleviated as potential hydrogen powered aircraft are stillin the early development and design phase.
»» Airports: Infrastructure investment. The transition
from jet fuel to hydrogen powered aircraft will also
require additional considerations and challenges in termsof airport infrastructure including:»» the timing/synchronisation of investments,
availability and use of infrastructure — airports willneed to make decisions based on airline fleet planningand technology readiness well before aircraft enter
into service in significant numbers,»» optimisation of the air transport system i.e.,
infrastructure lock-in.
»» indirect infrastructure costs such as potential changes
to airport layout remain highly uncertain.
There are also opportunities and synergies that will beoffered through the use of hydrogen in other sectors.
This could be achieved through an airport hydrogen hub
concept in a stepped approach, including using hydrogento decarbonise all airport-associated ground transport(heavy goods logistics, buses, tow trucks), paving the way
to hydrogen availability for aircraft in the 2030. This will
help to minimise the costs to the sector and airlines.

Waypoint 2050»» Energy suppliers: H2 production. Low-carbon
source hydrogen are needed to meet the requirements
associated with aviation decarbonisation scenarios.
While the current production of hydrogen is primarily
from coal (black hydrogen), natural gas (grey hydrogen)or lignite (brown), hydrogen can also be produced fromfossil fuels with CO2 emissions reduced using CCUS
(blue hydrogen). Ultimately, hydrogen is expected to
be produced through electrolysis from renewableelectricity (green hydrogen). Green hydrogen may
eventually be produced locally at or near airports. Local
electrolysis unit of 50 megawatts could serve the needfor regional size airport and around 500 megawatts forlarger airports83.
Meeting the demand for green hydrogen from theWaypoint 2050 T5 scenario would require approximately
2,200 TWh renewable electricity (power) in 2050. In
context, this additional demand for renewable electricity
is 5 to 20 times greater than the demand for electricity
from all-electric and incremental demand from plugin
hybrid electric aircraft (i.e., 90-400 TWh in 2050).
The hydrogen powered aircraft considered in the T5
scenario (i.e., narrow body aircraft) would consume
cryogenic hydrogen (as opposed to gaseous hydrogen).
Between the production of hydrogen and the uplift into
the aircraft, liquefaction of hydrogen will be required.
The theoretical minimum energy requirement toproduce liquid hydrogen ranges from 2.34-2.89 at for LH2
at 20K and 2-4 bar84. The actual energy requirement toproduce liquid hydrogen is ranges from 7 to 13.4 kWh/kg
at for LH2 at 20K and 2-4 bar85. At today’s (actual) range ofenergy requirement, the demand from liquid hydrogenfrom aviation in 2050 would require an additional 300 to
570 TWh of renewable electricity.
»» Energy suppliers: Financing and investment. Risks
The global aviation sector is a capital intensive and longtime horizon industry. The Waypoint 2050 T5 scenario
would require rapid scale up of innovation, technology
development (R&D), product development, productacquisition and infrastructure building.
»» Regulatory agencies: Aircraft certification. In addition
to requirements to OEMs, airports, operators, thedevelopment, and introduction of hydrogen powered
aircraft will require the certification of new technologies
in a sector with very low safety risk. The certification
process (including amendments to certification standards
and rules) is costly and lengthy process that can only
be changed without compromising safety. Certification
is even more challenging with the introduction of new,disruptive technologies such as hydrogen-powered
aircraft. The timing of development of certification
standards would also be critical to allow for entry into
service of hydrogen-powered aircraft.
Among aviation emissions, CO2 is the major contributor toclimate change due to its longevity in the atmosphere. Its
quantification, formation and effect are very well understood.
By working on reducing the fossil fuel consumption we
reduce all other emissions. SAF also has the potential toreduce non-CO2 emissions. However, as a complement,
it is necessary to minimise the current level of scientificuncertainty over the effect of non-CO2 emissions and our53

industry is committed to it. Such emissions include the water
vapour itself and its various forms (contrails, cirrus clouds)
and the other emissions such as NOx and particulates and the
combined effect of these emissions.
This is even more necessary as the hydrogen aircraft will emita large amount of water vapour.

THE DIFFERENT ‘COLOURS’OF HYDROGEN
In order to highlight the different hydrogen production
pathways, an informal colour code has started to
be used. Many groups such as the International
Energy Agency and International Renewable Energy
Agency anticipate that green hydrogen will overtime become the predominant source of hydrogen,although is starting from a very low base today. Blue
hydrogen may play a transitional role as the ‘hydrogen
economy’ builds prominence across a range of
economic sectors.

Black hydrogen
Hydrogen is extracted from bituminous coal, releasing
CO2 and CO emissions into the air.
Brown hydrogen
Hydrogen is extracted from lignite coal, releasing
CO2 and CO emissions into the air. Around 95-98% of
current supply.
Grey hydrogen
Hydrogen is extracted from natural gas, releasing CO2
emissions into the air.
Blue hydrogen
Hydrogen is extracted from fossil sources, with CO2
being captured and stored permanently underground.
However, between 5% and 15% of the CO2 ‘escapes’
during the collection and distribution process.
Pink hydrogen
Hydrogen is extracted from water using electricity
generated by nuclear. The by-product, oxygen, isreleased into the air.
Green hydrogen
Hydrogen is extracted from water using renewableelectricity such as solar and wind power. The byproduct, oxygen, is released into the air. The useof solar power is sometimes referred to as ‘yellow’
hydrogen. Around 0.1% of current supply

54

Waypoint 2050

An indicative overview of where low- and zero-carbon energy could be deployed in commercial aviation
A simplified view of which energy options might be able to contribute to the reduction in CO2 emissions from air transport in which time
period. This generally indicates when the technology may be commercially available, but not widespread use throughout the fleet. In
addition, the potential for hybrid sources of propulsion using direct electricity or electricity generated from the aircraft engines could
become a technical possibility in the regional and short-haul fleet from around 2030, medium-haul around 2035 and long-haul around2045. Hybridisation would bring with it improvements in fuel efficiency beyond the typical evolutions in engine technology. The roll-out ofthese technologies depends on research advances and the distribution and supply of energy, as well as the economic case to bring thesenew designs and energy sources into the fleet. As new technologies evolve, these assumptions may change – denser batteries may allow
greater range and larger aircraft to go electric; a strong governmental push towards a hydrogen economy may allow faster take up ofthat technology. Illustrative seating configuration, general flight times and share of CO2 emissions for context.
2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

Electric orHydrogenfuel cell
and/or SAF

SAF

SAF
potentiallysome
HydrogenHydrogen
and/or SAF

Hydrogen
and/or SAF

Hydrogen
and/or SAF

SAF
potentiallysome
Hydrogen

SAF
potentiallysome
Hydrogen

SAF

SAF

Commuter» 9-19 seats» < 60 minute flights» <1% of industry CO2

Regional» 50-100 seats» 30-90 minute flights» ~3% of industry CO2

SAF

Short haul
» 100-150 seats» 45-120 minute flights» ~24% of industry CO2

SAF

SAF

Medium haul
» 100-250 seats» 60-150 minute flights» ~43% of industry CO2

SAF

SAF

SAF

SAF

SAF
potentiallysome
Hydrogen

SAF

SAF

SAF

SAF

SAF

Long haul» 250+ seats» 150 minute + flights» ~30% of industry CO2

Regional aircraft provide useful first step
The most likely first adopters of new electric, hybrid andhydrogen opportunities in aviation are commuter andregional aircraft — those smaller than 100 seats which provide
feeder services to large hub airports for onward travel, orvital connectivity between secondary, tertiary and remotecommunities. The current generation of these aircraft include
turboprops which are more fuel efficient than current jet aircraft
and could be a perfect first step for radical new technologies.
Commuter services can provide connectivity on routes thatwould be too time-consuming to be operated by road, or too
costly to build rail links. Some smaller communities can takeadvantage of electric aircraft in the 9-50 seat category and there
are already flying test electric aircraft today.
The next step would be to up-gauge the electric, hybrid orhydrogen technology to regional aircraft size in the 50-100
seat category (such as today’s ATR and DeHavilland aircraft)which may provide a useful and lower carbon alternative

between secondary or tertiary cities that don’t otherwise
have enough traffic to justify building extensive high-speed
rail infrastructure. Given the timeframes to build suchinfrastructure (in the range of 20 years), advances in aircraft
technology could leapfrog the shift to rail for these markets,with lower carbon costs. In fact, Norway has set a goal to havedomestic air travel fully electrically-powered by 2040, with thefirst commercial services taking off by 203086.

Re-thinking our energy supply
Whilst the discussion above examines the challenges andprospects for developing the new technology aircraft that will
run on electricity and hydrogen, both require some shifts inthe way the industry considers energy supply.
Shifting to sustainable aviation fuel will require minimal
investment in on-airport distribution systems. Once the neat
SAF is produced, it will only require a blending infrastructure
to mix it in increasing quantities into the jet fuel supply.
This will likely be done off-airport at dedicated facilities toWaypoint 2050

ensure quality control of the fuel before it enters the airport
environment. It is an infrastructure investment, but due to thedrop-in nature of SAF will allow a gradual ramp-up in SAF blend
percentages as more supply is made available.
Further discussion on this takes place in section d)sustainable aviation fuel.
Hydrogen and electric battery options, on the other hand, will
require a radical re-think of the energy supply system. The
virtue of traditional (and drop-in SAF) fuel supply has beenstandardised fuel supply across the entire global system. Anyflight in any commercial aircraft can land virtually anywherein the world and pick up fuel. By having a special sub-set of the
global fleet operating with entirely different energy supply,
airlines will need to carefully consider how their operation will
evolve to take into account the supply of hydrogen and highvoltage electricity connections.
One can imagine a special fleet of short-haul hydrogenpowered aircraft operating between, for example, Geneva andLondon Heathrow. It is a route with high frequency over thecorrect distance. An airline will need to ensure that hydrogen
fuelling facilities are available at those two airports, as well
as alternate diversion airports (in this case potentially ParisCharles de Gaulle, London Stansted, London Gatwick and Lyon).
Additionally, having a sub-fleet of aircraft dedicated to one routeis not efficient and would need to also have use on other routes,
where hydrogen infrastructure would need to be established.

There will be a need to develop new hydrogen fuelling
infrastructure at airports, and ideally pipelines from greenhydrogen plants to airport facilities (although smaller volumes
can be transported by road).
Electricity supply for electric aircraft is not nearly as novel, but itwould also require new charging infrastructure and storage spacefor charged batteries to be available at airports (and, of course, forthe high-specification electricity supply to be low-carbon).
Additionally, a range of other ‘fuelling’ questions will need to beanswered: how long will it take to refuel / recharge a hydrogenor electric aircraft (and how will that impact turnaround times
for these short-haul flights and therefore fleet utilisation)?
What considerations would be needed for the size of hydrogenstorage and possibly liquefaction facilities at airports, or would
cryogenically-sealed pipelines be needed to deliver enoughliquid hydrogen to airports? What changes will be needed
to train ground crews? How will the sector overcome safety
challenges that take place with the shift to different fuels? All ofthese are surmountable over time, but are key considerations forthe industry. The current fuelling infrastructure-using fossil or
SAF-is highly efficient and optimised.
A systemic approach (for the whole aviation sector as well as thewider economy) should be undertaken for all non-fossil energy
carrier options (SAF, hydrogen, electricity) to properly map the
potential supply limitation for the use of green primary energy as
the world economy moves to carbon-free energy.

TECHNOLOGY READINESS LEVELSRESEARCH

DEVELOPMENTDEPLOYMENTADOPTION

This illustrates the various stages of technology readiness level, as developed by NASA in the 1990s. The description
places this in the context of a new aircraft type, but the TRLs can also apply to individual pieces of technology that go
into a wider airframe make-up, or even retrofit opportunities.
Widespread adoption oftechnology in the fleet

Most of the aircraft in the fleet have been replaced with the new technology
models — this process can take up to seven years for wide market
penetration.

Scaling up of deployment

More aircraft enter the fleet across the world, replacing older (lessefficient) aircraft of the same class.

9

Actual system proven in
operational environment

8

System complete
and qualified

7
6
5
4

System prototype
demonstrated in operational
environment
Technology demonstrated
in relevant environment
Technology validated in
relevant environment
Technology validated
in laboratory55

As aircraft enter the fleet with multiple airlines, operational shake-out
identifies updates or minor modifications required, ensures evolutionary
improvements to systems and efficiency of product.
Certification by relevant authorities following comprehensive test flightcampaign with full production aircraft. First commercial aircraft rolls off
the production line, followed by entry into service.
Full prototype has been developed and tested in normal operating
environments (test flights).
Full-sized prototypes engaged in ground testing of aircraft or engines
or systems.
Larger prototypes have been developed and tested at scale.
Early prototypes developed and tested in laboratory conditions and throughcomputer modelling.

3

Experimental proof
of concept

Very simple experimental set up to demonstrate feasibility.

2

Technology concept
formulated

Taking theoretical concepts and turning them into a design concept.

1

Basic principles observed

Initial idea for new technology.

56

Waypoint 2050

ACCELERATING TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
A range of actions will help reduce emissions. In each section, the report will explore the actions needed from policymakers, theindustry and partners in other sectors to help accelerate emissions reduction across aviation.
In order to support the future development of the global aviation industry in achieving high rates of aircraft level fuel efficiency
improvements, several recommendations and actions are required:

Action items for the aviation sector
Action item

Description

Timeline

Collaborate in government— industry — research
institution programmes
and champion theirdevelopment

Industry should be an active supporter of programmes like
Clean Aviation (successor to CleanSky 2) in the EU, the FAA
CLEEN project in the US and other existing programmes at anational level. Where such programmes do not exist, industry
can encourage governments to invest alongside industry
commitments. Should be accelerated in all regions, but alsoin emerging economies to take advantage of new talent in thedeveloping world.

Possibletoday

Accelerate research into
radical airframe designs,
electric and hydrogen
propulsion

Manufacturers: explore the potential of the emergence of
new non drop-in energies for aviation. Explore new design
and aircraft architecture concepts, in addition to exploring
all advanced technologies. Accelerate product cycles andinnovation speed with enhanced digital capabilities in orderto enable sufficient market penetration of climate-friendly
technologies until 2050 and beyond. Keeping affordability of
new products in focus is important to ensure airlines have theability to bring them into the fleet.

2020 —
2050

Accelerate research into
radical airframe designs,
electric and hydrogen
propulsion

Airlines: show interest and support for new technologies
by participating in evaluation, making it easier for
manufacturers and research establishment to drive forward
the necessary developments and justify the related funding.
Airlines (and similarly airports and ANSPs) are the end
users of new technologies. They have a role in defining
requirements for day-to-day operations and in validating if
new solutions are fit-for-purpose.

2020 —
2050

Form partnerships with
non-aviation technology
providers

Manufacturers: work with other industrial sectors (battery
technology, automobiles, long-haul trucking, hydrogensector) to form partnerships on accelerating necessary
technology development.

20202035

Provide robust incubator
opportunities for new
technology start-ups

Manufacturers: could fund an incubator for ideas and startups across the spectrum of aviation environmental efficiency.
Many inventors have ideas which need to be exploredand encouraged without the constraints that large global
manufacturers may have.

Possible
today

Implement necessary
infrastructure adaptations

Airports: in airport expansion plans, foresee the provision ofnecessary infrastructure for (clean) electricity supply, (green)hydrogen and battery recharging facilities at the time when
they will be needed (small-scale soon, substantial part ofregional traffic in the 2030s).

Possible
today

Implement necessary
infrastructure adaptations

Airports: foresee ground infrastructure adaptations for radical
new aircraft concepts, e.g. blended wing bodies, hydrogen.

20252035

Difficulty levelWaypoint 2050

57

Action items and policy proposals for governments
Action item

Description

Timeline

Continue to fund research
programmes where they
exist and develop projects
where they do not

In the coming years, government must ensure that accessby aerospace industry to ongoing funding for high-value
collaborative R&D, essential for delivering highly efficient
future aircraft and propulsion systems, remains in place.
Examples include the Clean Aviation Partnership project inthe EU.

2020-2030

Provide strong guidance togreen aviation research

Execute a national or supra-national research agenda thatplaces the highest priority on; advances in environmentallyfriendly aviation, including radical new aircraft concepts,
new sustainable propulsion energies, such as electricity andhydrogen, and highly efficient operations and infrastructure.

Possibletoday

Research into non-CO2
impacts also vital

Expand the focus from ‘CO2 emissions reduction’ to ‘climate
impact mitigation’, considering also the impact of non-CO2
effects and how technology and adapted flight operations can
reduce these effects. Some research is already ongoing inthis space and while there is better understanding, the work
has so far not provided conclusive operational or technology
fixes and answers for the industry.

Already
underway,
can beexpanded
immediately

If putting in place amarket-based measure,invest a portion in R&D

As global and regional market based measures are adopted,
Governments should invest a portion of any funds collected
in aircraft and propulsion technology that accelerates thesector’s path to reducing CO2.

Available
today

Implement ICAO aircraft
CO2 Standard

The ICAO CO2 Standard should be implemented innational legislation.

Required
today

Develop a wider hydrogen
economy strategy for all
potential usersof hydrogen

Build a coalition of potential users and providers of greenhydrogen in your country / region to start planning for asignificant increase in hydrogen use by transport, including
aviation. More generally, the changing energy needs of theaviation sector should be included in nationalenergy strategies.

Possibletoday

Ensure sufficient
infrastructure for lowcarbon electricity acrossyour economy

Support the introduction of hybrid-electric and full-electric
propulsion, as key enablers to reach medium-and long-term
CO2 emissions reduction goals.

2020-2050

Difficulty level58

Waypoint 2050

Action items and areas for research institutions
Action item

Description

Timeline

Ensure that research
programmes take into
account real-world
requirements

The organisations in charge of defining aviation research andtechnology policy and strategy, such as ACARE in Europe,
are giving special emphasis to the innovation and integration
aspect, with stronger participation of end users, namely
airlines, airports and air navigation service providers; thisis also reflected in ACARE’s name change from ‘Advisory
Council for Aeronautic Research in Europe’ to “Advisory
Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe”.

Possible
today

Help facilitate
clean energy andtechnology collaborations
between industry sectors

Research programmes should support closer R&D
cooperation between different sectors (such as aviation andenergy) to create synergies.

Possibletoday

Provide a platform forvisionary thinking andradical departures fromstandard research

The strategic research organisations have extended theirgoal-setting timeframe further into the future, with ACARE’svision document ‘Flightpath 2050’ and NASA’s strategicplanning including an additional generation of long-term
future ultra-green aircraft concepts. More room is thus given
to radically new ideas for the air vehicles and air transport
concepts of the future, which rely on out-of-the-box thinking
and leaving the classical concepts of tube-and-wing aircraft
as well as today’s forms of airports and airspace organisation.

Possibletoday

Ensure sustainability ispart of any aviation-related
curriculum at specialist
universities

Educate aviation students on aviation’s potential for green
growth and willingness to decarbonise to ensure they are
ready to innovate to support this technological challenge.

Possible
today (andalready
happeningin many
cases)

Difficulty level

Action items for the energy industry
Action item

Description

Timeline

Plan strategic energy
needs

Include aviation as a future customer of large amounts ofclean electricity and hydrogen.

Required
today

Develop worldwidehydrogen supply structure

Develop a worldwide hydrogen supply network, incollaboration with the aviation industry, ensuring thathydrogen is available at the majority of airports in the world— this is a prerequisite for the development of a hydrogenpowered aircraft programme, as manufacturers normallydevelopfor a world market rather than a regional one.

2025-2040

Development of new SAF
pathways and maturationof existing ones

The energy industry should prioritise and contribute to thedevelopment of new SAF pathways and push the maturity ofalready existing pathway-feedstock combinations and newer
technologies like power-to-liquid.

Possibletoday

Difficulty levelWaypoint 2050

59

Action items for the finance community
Action item

Description

Timeline

Focus funding on new
efficient aircraft acquisition

Regional and multilateral development banks can play a
proactive role in supporting the fleet replacement with new
efficient aircraft.

Possibletoday

Sustainable financeopportunities

Aviation should be able to access sustainable finance, green
bonds etc to support decarbonisation projects throughtechnology, SAF, infrastructure improvements etc.

Possible
today

Development of new SAF
pathways and maturationof existing ones

The energy industry should prioritise and contribute to thedevelopment of new SAF pathways and to push the maturity ofalready existing pathway-feedstock combinations and newer
technologies like power-to-liquid.

Possibletoday

Difficulty level

Action items for other stakeholders
Action item

Description

Timeline

Develop synergies with theautomotive sector

Automotive sector: this industry is fairly advanced in building
vehicles using new clean propulsion energies (electricity,hydrogen). Collaboration between the automotive andaviation sectors is needed to benefit from synergies in thedevelopment and implementation of clean energy solutions.

2020 2050

Develop synergies with thehydrogen sector

Hydrogen sector: ensure potential aviation demand forhydrogen is included in green hydrogen scale-up planning: fortraditional SAF production, power-to-liquid production andalso direct hydrogen use. Included in planning should be an
exploration of the potential need to deliver large quantities ofhydrogen to airport sites (storage, liquefaction, pipelines, etc).

20202050+

Difficulty level60

Waypoint 2050

IMPROVEMENTS IN OPERATIONSAND INFRASTRUCTURE
HOW AIRCRAFT ARE FLOWN THROUGH THE SKIES CAN MAKE A GREAT IMPACT
ON THE EFFICIENCY OF EACH INDIVIDUAL FLIGHT. WHILST IMPROVEMENTS IN
OPERATIONS (THE WAY AIRCRAFT ARE FLOWN AND IMPROVEMENTS THAT CAN BE
MADE ON BOARD) AND INFRASTRUCTURE (THE EFFICIENCIES FROM THE AIRSPACE
AND AIRPORT SYSTEM) WILL NOT PROVIDE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTIONS TO
LONG-TERM CO2 REDUCTION, THEIR IMPACT CAN BE SIGNIFICANT.
comes not only from the desire to minimise fuel expenditure,
but to increase overall efficiency and also to addressenvironmental concerns.

Operations and infrastructure efficiency improvements havethe potential to contribute to reducing CO2 emissions andhelp meet the 2050 carbon goal. While the overall emissions
reductions from operations and infrastructure efficiency
improvements will — by themselves — not be sufficient to meetthe goal, these measures can often be implemented at scale
faster than aircraft-level technologies (that are constrainedby the rate of entry of aircraft into the fleet) and therefore
the impacts from operations and infrastructure efficiency
improvements can be significant contributors, particularly inthe near term.

Reducing fuel burn is the first way to reduce emissions andhence the environmental impact and associated costs. The
market expects aircraft manufacturers, in cooperation with
their suppliers, to design and deliver the most economicallyefficient aircraft with the best environmental performancepossible. Manufacturers are committed to improving the fuelburn and emissions performance of their aircraft throughthe implementation of new technologies but also throughoperational measures during the in-service life of the aircraft.

Aircraft operations (airline and aircraft operator focus)
include measures such as: reduction of weight, improvements
in aerodynamics of in-service aircraft and use of systems
to improve efficiency during the operation of aircraft. In
the short-term, these elements will play a crucial role tobring down emissions, but this only has a limited impact
on longer-term emissions trajectories, as opportunities forthese efficiency measures are fully exploited in the earlyyears. Infrastructure improvements (air traffic management
and to a lesser extent airport operations) include measures
such as: structural changes in air traffic management (ATM)operations, energy savings at the airport such as limitations
on the use of auxiliary power units, single engine taxi, andreduced taxi times.

Airframers, infrastructure providers, airports, aviation
authorities and air navigation service providers can allparticipate by providing airlines with the means to operate
their aircraft in the most efficient way possible.
To investigate the potential contribution from operations
and infrastructure efficiency improvements and to buildon the expertise of the participants, sources were reviewed
within the Waypoint 2050 project and considered as thebasis for the development of a range of potential scenarios
for CO2 emissions reductions resulting from operations andinfrastructure efficiency improvements. These include the
ICAO CAEP/10 and CAEP/11 reports, the IATA Technology
Roadmap, the CANSO Efficiency 2050 Goal and the UK
Sustainable Aviation Road-Map (2016).

Optimising fuel consumption is a challenge for many groups
in commercial aviation. Motivation to deal with the subject

Operational efficiency scenarios for Waypoint 2050 88

Three simple scenarios were developed to illustrate potential pathways for operational and infrastructure efficiencies on a
per-annum basis.
2015
0%

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

O1

0.00%
CAGR
2019-2050

O2

0.10%
CAGR
2019-2050

O3

0.20%
CAGR
2019-2050

Cumulative / Operations andInfrastructure improvements

-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%

Waypoint 2050

O1

Low
improvement

61

Investments in operations and infrastructure are counterbalanced by degraded ATM
performance due to congestion from traffic increases.
While difficult to estimate given the complex counteracting feedback loops of (1)investments in operations and infrastructure resulting in fuel burn reductions and (2)increased congestion resulting in increased operational inefficiencies and fuel burn, this
scenario of (net) zero percent improvement in fuel efficiency is meant to illustrate thissituation.
Despite what looks like no improvement in this scenario, maintaining current efficiency
despite traffic growth will require investment in ATM improvements in order to avoid adegradation in the performance of the system and reduction in efficiency.

O2

Mid
improvement

Substantial investments in operations and infrastructure result in (net) CO2 reductionsof 0.10% per annum, a 3+% overall contribution in 2050.

O3

High
improvement

Substantial investments in operations and infrastructure result in (net) CO2 reductionsof 0.20% per annum, a 6+% overall contribution in 2050.

Trying to develop high-level scenarios in this space ischallenging, as there are so many individual initiatives taking
place all over the world, with different opportunities for
efficiency improvements. Necessarily, a broad estimate needs
to be developed in order to feed into the Waypoint 2050
overall scenarios. The delivery of improvements is further
challenged by congestion in parts of the system — trying to put
more flights into a finite airspace will reduce the effectivenessof operational efficiency measures.
As described in the scenarios above, the net improvementfrom aircraft operations and infrastructure is dependent on
the underlying growth in traffic measured in terms of numberof flights or movements.
»» In the central traffic forecast, the increase in number ofmovements will be around 2.3.
»» Under high traffic forecast, the number of movements
could increase by a factor of around 2.6.
»» The low traffic forecast will see less than a doubling of
movements (1.6 times).
Scenarios that would result in a more than two times increasein number of movements could result in substantial levelsof congestion in some parts of the global airspace systemdepending on the rate at which capacity is added to the system.
What is clear is that substantial investment will be needed
to help keep up with the increase in connectivity being
generated by this growth in traffic.

Airline-based operational improvements
Load factors can make a significant impact on the fuel efficientutilisation of aircraft and have been improving substantiallyin recent years (the impacts of Covid-19 are causing a numberof unusual impacts, but the industry expects to revert totypical load factor conditions as traffic returns to normal).

Efficient aircraft operations also require the careful
integration of many factors, including: regulatory restrictions,en-route and airport traffic management requirements,
maintenance, crew scheduling and fuel costs. Effective flightplanning, careful operation and maintenance of the aircraft
and its engines are essential to ensure that the aircraft isconsistently being used in the most efficient way possible
and addressing all requirements. The aircraft will experience
performance degradation through its operational life. Careful
operation and maintenance can limit it and thus reduce cost,safety risks and optimise efficiency.

Historic and projected average load factor89

The scenario modelling projected a continued increase inairline load factors.
100%

FORECAST

90%
80%
70%
Passenger load factor

Developing scenarios

60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

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Waypoint 2050

Practical opportunities for operational improvements
MeasureExplanation, how it reduces CO2

Retro-fitting winglets

Several manufacturers have developed variations of wingtip devices that reduce thewake vortex created by the movement of air around the wingtip. These aerodynamic
modifications, using advanced computational fluid dynamics, enable airlines to savemore than 4% in fuel, reduce aircraft noise and as much as 8% in NOx emissions. Over9,000 aircraft have been retrofitted, saving over 100 million tonnes of CO2 since 2000.

Light-weight aircraft
cabin equipment

New catering trolleys can be up to one-third lighter than their predecessors, saving
nearly 28,000 tonnes of CO2 annually in one airline’s operation by using lightweightcomposite materials. Further weight reductions of 30-40% have been achieved
through the introduction of lighter inflight entertainment systems.

Light-weight seating

By replacing standard seats with lightweight, slimline models, airlines can cut weightby 30%, with one airline saving more than 21,000 tonnes in CO2 emissions a year.

Light-weight cargo containers

Airlines have developed high-tech, fire-resistant containers by using composite
materials such as MACROLite and Kevlar that have proven to be more durable andlightweight. This has allowed one airline to avoid over 3,000 tonnes of CO2 emissions
annually, reduce maintenance time and carry more cargo.

Electronic flightbags / tablet computers

Using a tablet computer instead of heavy paper flight crew manuals, weighs halfa kilogramme as opposed to 20 kilos in printed material. One airline has avoided
nearly 3,500 tonnes in CO2 annually, with other airlines experiencing similar effects.

Last-minute fuel and water uplift

Rather than refuelling by simply filling the tanks each time (or filling potable watertanks), airlines are increasingly working to match fuel and water requirements more
precisely to passenger loading and weather conditions en route. This reduces fueluplift and saves weight and CO2 emissions.

Electric or assisted taxiing

There are a range of solutions available that minimise the use of jet engines during
aircraft taxiing. Options that utilise electric motors fitted to landing gears and guidethe aircraft from the terminal gate without the need to run the engines can cut CO2
emissions and unburned hydrocarbons by over 60% and NOx emissions from thetaxiing phase by over 50%. An example of a solution is proposed with a special tug
that tows the aircraft to the runway and is remotely steered by the pilot. Only the
APU needs to run during this phase, which can lead to emissions reductions of up to
85% on airports with long taxi distances. Solutions exist but further research anddevelopment are needed for full application and usefulness of electric-taxiing.

Using thinner paint for
aircraft liveriesThinner chrome-free paint has the potential to reduce the weight of paint by
15%, while also eliminating the need for additional solvent chemicals that are
detrimental to the environment. With paint on an aircraft weighing as much as 250
kilograms, these modifications have enabled one airline to save 60,000 tonnes of
CO2 without compromising the paint quality (which can have aerodynamic benefits
as the aircraft flies).

Maintaining exterior
paint conditions

Deterioration of the aircraft’s exterior surface is to be expected on any aircraft inservice, the loss of paint in critical areas of the airframe will upset the local airflow
to an extent that overall drag can be increased.

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63

MeasureExplanation, how it reduces CO2Exterior cleaning

The natural accumulation of dirt on the external surface will introduce a slightroughness that, overall, can induce significant additional drag.

Performance improvement
packages for in-service aircraft

The implementation of performance enhancements and fuel burn improvements
to existing aircraft can reduce fuel consumption and emissions by 2% - can comein the form of software updates, operational measures and small technology
retrofits. These performance improvement packages can reduce drag, improve
propulsion efficiency and streamline aerodynamic surfaces, in addition to further
improvements that enhance airflow and save up to 6.4% in fuel consumption.

Fuel efficiency
management systems

Enhanced fuel efficiency systems that apply to flight and ground operations enable
airlines to cut fuel use and CO2 across their operation by analysing flight patterns
and suggesting small improvements that can add up to a big difference across the
fleet, throughout the year.

Reduced engine taxiing

Reduced engine taxiing, where pilots taxi on a reduced number of engines and thenstart the rest nearer the runway, has saved one airline 4,100 tonnes of fuel per year
at its hub airport.

Engine wash / fuselage wash

To ensure the long-term health of aircraft engines, modern engine wash systems
have been developed to remove airborne contaminants that would otherwise cause
the engine to operate at higher temperatures and burn more fuel. This closed-loopsystem reuses deionised, heated and atomised water to remove contaminants fromcompressor blade surfaces and restore engine performance, leading to a 1.5% fuelreduction and saving up to 500,000 tonnes of CO2 per year across the fleet.

Aircraft interior cleaning

Keeping the passenger and crew areas clean will have the added benefit ofminimising weight increase through dirt accumulation. Regular cleaning of cargocompartments should also be considered. Cleaning can also reduce maintenancecosts associated with repairs due to foreign objects causing damage to cargocompartment panels (broken suitcase handles or wheels).

Condensation

Aircraft are designed to minimise the generation of condensation, but studies
suggest that an aircraft can accumulate in excess of 200 kg of water. Condensation isaffected by seating density, load factor and utilisation. Short turnaround times may
not allow full evaporation or drainage of the condensed water. Careful maintenanceof insulation blankets and correct functioning of the piston type drain valves on thelower fuselage shell should be periodically checked. Additionally, several providers
produce zonal dryers which can be used to cut down on condensation formation.

Raise awarenessand train crews

The way air crews and engineers operate aircraft can have a significant impact onfuel consumption and emissions.
» Ensure regular training sessions, promote application of green procedures» Deploy consulting activities to review the whole ecosystem involved in the fuelefficiency procedures» Develop sustainable engagement programmes between airlines andmanufacturers» Participate in networking activities to share experience within the community(Forums, webinars…)

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Waypoint 2050

Practical opportunities for infrastructure improvements
MeasureExplanation, how it reduces CO2

Fixed electrical groundpower at gate

Fixed electrical ground power and pre-conditioned air powered by local electricalgrids or solar power enables airlines to turn on auxiliary power units nearer tothe departure time. At one major hub airport, the use of this gate power lowered
CO2 emissions by over 100,000 tonnes per year and reduced aircraft noise.

Airport collaborativedecision making

Airport collaborative decision-making (A-CDM) facilitates the exchange
of information between the aircraft, ground handler, and air traffic control
provider by enhancing information sharing. This provides more accurate
turn-around information for airlines and allows for the effective use of slots,
which can minimise delays and fuel burn. When A-CDM was implemented at 17
airports in Europe, over 102,700 tonnes of CO2 per annum was saved, on top ofover 2.2 million minutes of taxiing time and €26.7 million in fuel90.
Currently, 29 European airports are fully A-CDM “compliant”. In Asia Pacific, 50
airports are operating A-CDM procedures to a varying degree. The US is working
to implement Surface-CDM at 27 airports by 2024. Airports in the Middle East,
South America and Africa are beginning to adopt A-CDM. Challenges include:
a lack of automation platforms for information exchange; lack of integration
between airports and ANSP (insufficient cooperation between stakeholders); andlimited knowledge of A-CDM.

Surface congestion
management (reducing
taxiing delays)

New software and hardware tools used to generate virtual airport departure
queues, assist in managing an airport’s surface congestion. The tool builds
15-minute departure blocks, that minimise the amount of time airlines spend
on the taxiway waiting for their departure slot. By determining the number ofaircraft permitted to taxi, and considering possible weather events, time of day,and regional air traffic congestion, airlines spend more time waiting at the gatewith engines switched off, which saved 48,000 tonnes of CO2 each year at one
major airport.

Performance-basednavigation

Performance-based Navigation (PBN) flight procedures use GPS and satellite
technology for navigating aircraft using enhanced trajectories, improves
airspace capacity, safety and environmental performance. This provides
additional flexibility in the design of flight paths over the use of traditional
ground based navigational aids. Using advanced navigational equipage,aircraft arrivals occur in pre-determined arcs that allow for more predictableapproaches from both tricky terrain and airspace congestion. This not only
reduces noise, but can also save a tonne of CO2 per landing. PBN technologies
offer a significant opportunity to design more efficient flight paths to reduce fuelburn and even reduce community noise.
Being introduced today. Many ANSPs are implementing these procedures aspart of airspace modernisation projects. ICAO has required all States to develop
a national PBN implementation plan setting out timelines and targets. Those
plans were updated in 2018. ANSPs continue to advance those plans in themodernisation of their airspace and to apply new standards as they become
available. EU regulatory provisions establish a gradual migration to a full PBN
environment with satellites as the main positioning source for PBN by 2030.

Waypoint 2050

MeasureExplanation, how it reduces CO2

Required navigation
performance (RNP)

Required navigation performance (RNP) is a navigation specification PBN which
permits the operation of aircraft along a precise flight path with a high level ofaccuracy and integrity. RNP offers safety benefits by means of its precision andaccuracy and facilitates more efficient continuous descent approaches by aircraft.
A study undertaken by GE Aviation calculated the impact of standardised RNP
approaches at just 46 regional airports in the USA and found that it would save
39,000 tonnes of fuel and 124,556 tonnes of CO2 per annum.

65

Many ANSPs are progressively implementing RNP as part of airspace modernisation
efforts and airlines are increasingly equipping their aircraft and training pilots. New
navigation separation standards such as “Established on RNP” provide additional
opportunity to further enhance the utilisation of these procedures without adecrease in airport efficiency.

Space-based navigation

Air traffic controllers use surveillance technologies like radar and ADS-B to track
and control flights. Ground-based surveillance technologies are limited to line-ofsight and are not available in all areas (particularly over water and in very remoteregions). Newly available space-based surveillance technology provides full global
tracking of appropriately equipped aircraft and enables air traffic controllers tosafely reduce separation requirements in non radar-controlled airspace, improving
the capacity of the airspace and enabling more fuel efficient routings.
Available as of early 2019, space-based ADS-B surveillance is being adopted bymany agencies to provide surveillance data in airspace where they do not havecoverage with conventional radar or ground based ADS-B. In 2021 this technology
was used to support a trial removing the Organized Track System (OTS) in theairspace over the North Atlantic and enabling aircraft to flight plan to take better
advantage of winds.

Continuous descent / climb

Continuous climb and descent operations (CCOs and CDOs) are aircraft operating
techniques enabled by airspace design, instrument procedure design and facilitatedby air traffic control. Studies suggest that the benefits of improving CDO in
particular may be significant (>40 kgs of fuel per flight). CCO and CDO allow aircraft
to follow a flexible, optimum flight path that delivers major environmental andeconomic benefits - reduced fuel burn, emissions, noise and fuel costs. ANSPs havebeen implementing and improving these operations for a number of years. RNP
technologies are further improving opportunities for CCO and CDO. There are still
limitations with the application of CCO/CDO at busy airports and during busy periods
due to the need for tactical intervention by air traffic controllers to safely manage
arrival and departure flows.

Expansion of ‘perfect flight’
partnerships

So-called ‘perfect flights’ are single, optimised, commercial flights used to set an
optimum standard for efficiency of a flight. It can be an effective tool to demonstrate
optimisation opportunities (over several flight phases): fuel consumption, operating
cost, CO2 and other gaseous emissions and noise. The programme can also provide
a catalyst for airlines and wider industry stakeholders to demonstrate feasibilityof achieving CO2 emission reductions. The collaborative exercise involves: airline,
aircraft manufacturer, departure and destination airports and service providers,
en-route and terminal area ATM providers and government aviation authorities. The
techniques and lessons learnt while undertaking perfect flights can be brought into
every day operations in order to improve system-wide performance.

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Waypoint 2050

MeasureExplanation, how it reduces CO2

4D Trajectory-based
Operations (TBO)

The implementation of 4D trajectory management is being researched by SESAR
in the EU, NextGen in the USA, NLR in the Netherlands, IATA and others. The 4D
trajectory concept is based on the integration of a time element into the 3D aircraft
trajectory. It aims to ensure flight on an unrestricted, optimum trajectory for as
long as possible in exchange for the aircraft obligation to meet accurate arrival
times over designated points. The concept is still in development with some initial
trials underway. The ICAO Global Air Navigation Plan forecasts use by 2030, andimplementation is dependent on next generation air traffic management and aircraft
automation systems.

Flexible tracks /free-route airspace

Taking advantage of improved navigational capabilities such as RNP, ANSPs are able toprovide and accept requests for flexible routes allowing flight crews to react to changing
weather patterns and fly more efficient direct routes. The systems will analyse current
weather conditions and a flight’s trajectory to re-route flights along a more efficientpath, subject to approval from flight crew and air traffic control. Up to 500,000 tonnes of
CO2 a year could be saved when fully implemented over Europe alone.
Dynamic airborne reroute procedures are currently available to be applied to user
preferred routes over the North and South Pacific region. Mandatory requirements
for flexible routing (including aircraft equipment capabilities), as well as pilot/
dispatcher and pilot/air traffic controller workload need to be taken into accountwhen implementing these measures.

Flexible use of
military airspace

Large blocks of airspace are controlled by military and are often unavailable forcivil operations requiring civil aircraft to be routed around this airspace. A numberof States have successfully implemented flexible use of this airspace — handing itover to civil air traffic management when not in use by military and allowing much
more direct routing of aircraft. Such initiatives could reduce emissions significantly
in a number of States: in just one example, the opening of a single piece of airspace
allowed every flight to save 6 minutes of flight time and 5,000 tonnes of CO291. In orderfor implementation, good civil / military cooperation is required. Political sensitivity
surrounding the confidentiality of military exercises and military restricted areas canrequire complex negotiations.

Formation flight

There are benefits to the wake of a leading aircraft to provide efficiency
improvements on following aircraft. Airbus has a project called fello’fly which looks
at how software can make this a reality. Flight tests demonstrated that significant
fuel savings could be achieved when two aircraft fly approximately 3 kilometresapart, without compromising passenger comfort. If the fuel-reduction technology
proves viable, the aviation industry will benefit from a collaborative activity that
demonstrates a clear commitment between manufacturers, airlines, air navigation
service providers, regulators and authorities to reduce fuel consumption and CO2
emissions. This collaborative activity could make a significant impact on aircraft’s
environmental performance: fuel savings are expected to reach 5-10% per trip.

Waypoint 2050

67

In addition, there are a number of large programmes being implemented across wide areas of airspace which can also
bring efficiencies:

Single European Sky

The Single European Sky initiative aims to increase the efficiency of air traffic
management and air navigation services by reducing the fragmentation of European
airspace. By its nature, this ongoing initiative is pan-European and open toneighbouring countries. Its purpose is to modernise Europe’s airspace structure andair traffic management technologies so as to ensure forecast growth in air traffic canbe met, safely and sustainably, whilst reducing costs and improving environmental
performance. Many of the benefits of SES are being delivered through technological,
safety, and operational improvements. It aims to create a more integrated and digital
European airspace for sustained traffic growth. The delivery of seamless air traffic
services is built on optimised airspace organisation, supported by progressively
higher levels of automation, common ATM data services and an improved role of theEurocontrol Network Manager to optimise the ATM network.

SESAR (Europe)

The Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research, SESAR, is theEuropean Union’s air traffic management modernisation programme. It combines
technological, economic and regulatory aspects and will use the Single European
Sky legislation to synchronise the plans and actions of the different stakeholders andbring together resources for the development and implementation of the required
improvements throughout Europe, in both airborne and ground systems.

NextGen (United States)

NextGen is a wide-ranging transformation of the entire US air traffic management
system. It involves replacing ground-based technologies with new and more dynamic
satellite-based technology and implementing advanced ATM technologies andcapabilities. It is a collaborative effort between the Federal Aviation Administration andpartners from the airports, airlines, manufacturers, government agencies, state, local
and foreign governments, universities and associations.

Interdependencies affecting thepotential for operational andinfrastructure improvements
The W2050 operations and infrastructure scenarios areinterdependent with several factors which can introduce
inefficiencies compared with ideal flightpath conditions.
These can include:»» Safety considerations — aircraft will deviate from theoptimal route in order to ensure adequate separation
between other aircraft.
»» Weather — to ensure safe and smooth flight, adverse
weather systems may need to be avoided.
»» Capacity 92 — to accommodate capacity limitations
either at the airport or within airspace, aircraft may berequired to hold prior to arrival, or wait on the ground
prior to departure. When traffic demand approaches
available capacity, congestion increases, reducing
efficiency as discussed above. However, with measures
such as airport collaborative decision making, air traffic
flow management and better use of data throughout
the system, sometimes these measures can be broughtin earlier in each flight. For example, delaying aircrafton the ground until capacity throughout the journeyis available. Or slowing down aircraft en route to avoid
bunching of flights close to congested airports.

»» Capacity — another area of potential capacity constraints
in the future is the emergence and proliferation of otherairspace users, such as unmanned aerial vehicles»» Noise — to reduce noise impact on the ground, aircraft
operations around the airfield are subject to noise
abatement procedures that may reduce noise for acertain neighbourhood but may cause the aircraft to fly
an approach or departure that is a less efficient route or
accept sub-optimal altitudes.
»» Airline practices — flight planning systems need to havethe flexibility to benefit from more optimal routes that
may be available.
»» Military — civil aircraft generally must route around
military airspace zones and other types of restricted
airspace increasing fuel burn. ANSPs can actively seek
cooperation from the military to implement and optimise
the Flexible Use of Airspace.
»» Institutional — aircraft may take less than optimal routes
due to fragmented airspace. Different regions / countries
may have different operating procedures, charging
mechanisms and require specific hand-over protocols
that may lead to less than optimum fuel-efficient routing.
These may be resolved by political will.

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Waypoint 2050

ACCELERATING OPERATIONAL AND INFRASTRUCTURE EFFICIENCYIn order to support future emissions reductions from operations and infrastructure, several recommendations and actions
are proposed:

Action items for the aviation sector
Action item

Description

Timeline

Work in partnership to
re-build air traffic volumes
based on perfect flight
principles

Air traffic management (with partners): as air traffic volumes
recover following the Covid-19 shutdown, the industry
should prioritise perfect flight principles to optimise flighttrajectories and make operations as efficient as possible,
rather than implementing these elements as an add-on tonormal traffic growth.

20202024

Full implementation of
fixed electric ground power

Airports: introduce fixed electrical ground power and preconditioned air at all remaining appropriate aircraft stands.

Possible
today

Full implementation of
fixed electric ground power

Airlines: put in place procedures for flight crews to always
use fixed electrical ground power when parked at equipped
stands.

Possible
today

Work in partnership toimplement assisted taxiing
opportunities

Airlines / aircraft manufacturers / suppliers / airports /ground handlers / air traffic management: should investigate
opportunities for assisted taxiing (electric taxiing systems,
remote taxiing systems and taxiing to runway) to reduce theuse of engines for ground movements. Work in partnership toensure certification and successful deployment in operations.

20202025

Full implementation ofweight-based efficiency
measures

Airlines: make use of all available weight-based efficiency
measures:

Possibletoday» Tablet computers for flight deck use» Lighter cabin equipment» Lighter seating

Full implementation ofweight-based efficiency
measures

Component suppliers: continue toinvest in R&D to develop new cabin equipment which reduces
weight and increases efficiency.

20202050

Acceleration of full
implementation of A-CDM

Airlines / airports / ground handlers / air traffic management:
ensure complete use of A-CDM to improve efficiency of
airport-based operations.

20202030

Full implementation ofcontinuous approach anddeparture

Air traffic management: where operationally possible,
implement more efficient approach andclimb-out procedures.

20202025

Investigate new
approach technologies
and procedures at all
applicable airports

Air traffic management: performance-based navigation(PBN) and its next step required navigation performance(RNP) provide precise and efficient flightpaths into airports,
particularly those in challenging environments. Investigate
the opportunities for using these systems to improve theperformance of flights at airports (if the investment intechnology is warranted by the unique situations at the
airports), whilst ensuring engagement with local communities
if traditional flightpaths shift.

Possibletoday

Difficulty levelWaypoint 2050

Action item

Description

Timeline

Full implementationof aerodynamic efficiency
opportunities

Airlines: ensure remaining applicable fleet have winglet andother aerodynamic efficiency devices retro-fitted, whereappropriate (not all aircraft are eligible, or already havedevices included).

Possibletoday

Support theimplementation of
trajectory-based
operations

Air traffic management: the establishment of enhanced data
sharing will be necessary to enable improved fuel-efficiency
management through trajectory based operations (TBO). TBO
will unlock harmonised gate-to-gate management of airborne
and ground operations (through airport collaborative decision
making and air traffic flow management), while maintaining
a balance of demand and capacity through the use of newtechnology and artificial intelligence.

20252030

Work with local
communities on new
airspace design

Airports / air traffic management: some new airspacedesign and technology implementation may change thetraditional aircraft approach paths to airports and increaseor change the impact of air traffic on some communities(whilst decreasing it on others). Whilst these are being
implemented to improve climate efficiency, sometimes theylead to changed noise impacts on the residents living aroundthe airport. Working with communities to develop metrics
may help prioritise these competing objectives. Community
opposition to airspace changes is a difficult road block toimplementation.

Possible
today

Collaborate to speed up
investigating, testing andcertification of new
efficiency measures

Whole industry: develop enhanced and faster protocols forevaluating new aviation-specific procedures or technologies.
Most new systems, operational procedures or pieces oftechnology require extensive airworthiness safety testing
before being certified for use in real world operations. The
challenge of certifying this new capability cost-effectively
however, requires closer up-front collaboration with OEMs,
avionics suppliers, regulators and operators to seek process
improvements wherever possible.

Possibletoday

Encourage efficiency action
throughout the system

Whole industry: work with employees, crews, engineersand external parties to develop concepts for new efficiency
measures in each company.

Possible
today

Increase useof rail for connecting
passengers

Airlines: investigate opportunities for increased intermodal
operations with rail operators, including through-ticketing
options, where opportunities exist (mainly in Europe andparts of East Asia). Airports: work with rail operators andgovernments to improve connections between terminals andrail stations (preferably step-free and in the same building or
under cover connections)

Possible
today

Increase share ofpassengers reaching the
airport by public transport

Airports: work with local authorities and transport providers
for simple and seamless connections between public
transport and airport facilities.

Possibletoday

Difficulty level

69

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Waypoint 2050

Action items and policy proposals for governments
Action item

Description

Timeline

Make military air
space flexible use

Large blocks of airspace are controlled by military and areoften unavailable for civil operations. A number of States
have successfully implemented flexible use of this airspace —handing it over to civil air traffic management when not in use
by military and allowing much more direct routing of aircraft.
Could reduce emissions significantly over a number of States.

Available
immediately

Implement the
ICAO Aviation System Block
UpgradesThe ICAO Global Air Navigation Plan (GANP) sets out aseries of Aviation System Block Upgrades or technology
modernisation projects focused on four performance
improvement areas: airport operations; global interoperable
systems and data; optimum capacity and flexible flights; andefficient flight paths. The initiatives reflect consensus aroundthe series of technologies, procedures, and operational
concepts needed to meet future capacity and ATM challenges.
An analysis by ICAO found that if implemented Block 0 and
1 elements would deliver global fuel and CO2 savings of
between 1.6 — 3.0% in 202593. Governments must carrythrough implementation plans for this vital project.

Already
underway,
block 1technologies arescheduledfor 20192025

Develop new systems forregulators to progresson national, regional andglobal harmonisation ofstandards

Regulators need to accelerate the change process without
sacrificing safety. With closer aircraft manufacturer,
regulator and ANSP focused collaboration, the developmentof guidance material, criteria, and policies for new operational
capabilities could likely be reduced from 5-10 years to 3-5
years. Having regulator participation supports the assurance
that new investments will be returned in the form of costsavings, capacity enhancements, and other direct benefits.

Possibletoday

Encourage and fundcomprehensive intermodal
planning

Bringing together particularly rail and aviation operations
for seamless mobility between transport modes. To beeffective, long-haul air passengers should be able to transfer
to appropriate rail connections to nearby cities with easeof access (ideally connections in the airport terminal) andon a single ticket. Rail infrastructure expansion should beseamless with airport facilities, where possible, to ensure thegreatest uptake by passengers.

Possibletoday

Ensure balanced
comparison of transportmodes

Designing the solutions for the future sustainablemobility of citizens requires a thorough assessment of allenvironmental aspects for those transport modes which canbe complimentary. There is a need to avoid policy decisions
made by only looking at one environmental aspect.

Possibletoday

Difficulty level

Action items and areas for research institutions
Action item

Description

Timeline

Focus on operational
procedure improvements
for aviation system

There could be a range of further improvements to airspace
utilisation and aircraft ground movements which could be thefocus of continuing research efforts: improved efficiency with
ATC spacing tools is one example.

From
today

Difficulty levelWaypoint 2050

71

Action items for the energy industry
Action item

Description

Timeline

Work in partnership with
airports to ensure low
carbon energy supply

Need to adapt airports and infrastructure for new aircraft
designs and new energy requirements (low carbon electricity
and/or hydrogen). When the technology is further developed,
aircraft manufacturers would have to work closely with
airports and other stakeholders to advance therequired changes.

From
today

Difficulty level

Action items for other stakeholders
Action item

Description

TimelineCommunity and aviation
system engagement

Communities in the vicinity of airports are sensitive to noiseand emissions from operations at any nearby airports. Their
cooperation is essential to enabling growth and enabling new
operations at the airport. Local communities need to findrepresentatives that can express community concerns while
also appreciating the economic role played by the airport
and the aviation industry and recognise the industry goal for
reducing CO2 and noise.

Possibletoday

Difficulty level

72

Waypoint 2050

DEPLOYING SUSTAINABLE
AVIATION FUELSINCE JET AIRCRAFT FIRST STARTED FLYING IN THE 1950S, COMMERCIAL
AVIATION HAS RELIED ON NEARLY A SINGLE SOURCE OF ENERGY. THISCHANGED IN JANUARY 2008, WHEN A COMMERCIAL AIRCRAFT WAS OPERATED
ON AN ALTERNATIVE FUEL FOR THE FIRST TIME. BY 2011, FOLLOWING YEARSOF SAFETY TESTS AND MUCH CAREFUL SCRUTINY, AIRLINES WERE APPROVED
TO FLY PASSENGERS ON A NEW SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUEL (SAF).
By 2015, the first regular supply of SAF was being delivered
to airports and since then a number of new production
facilities have been in development or construction. Despite
this progress, it is estimated that by 2025, with a rapid andsignificant policy push only around 2% of total jet fuel use
will be with sustainable aviation fuels94. To begin the energy
transition towards a complete replacement of fossil fuel withalternative sources in aviation, an acceleration is needed toensure that the 2% is achieved and rapidly scaled-up.
Whilst the technology exists today and over 365,000
commercial flights have been operated on SAF sincecertification was granted in 2011, the ability for SAF tocontribute to the industry’s decarbonisation roadmap isdependent on both the production scale-up of existingcertified pathways that now needs to take place and also on
new forms of feedstock being developed. There is no question
the industry can entirely meet its energy needs in 2050 froma range of renewable sources, but the core challenge is how
to completely transition an industry in under 30 years – both
economically and practically.

What is sustainable aviation fuel?
Sustainable aviation fuel, a term that generally refers to nonfossil derived aviation fuel, will play a key role in aviation’s
ability to meet the 2050 carbon goal. Sustainable aviation fuelis characterised by three key elements:»» Sustainable — Sustainability in this context is defined
as something that can be continually and repeatedly
resourced in a manner consistent with economic, socialand environmental aims, and conserves an ecologicalbalance by avoiding depletion of natural resources.
»» Alternate feedstock to crude oil — It is a fuel for aviation
with an alternative feedstock to crude oil. In this casenon-conventional or advanced fuels and includes

any materials or substances that can be used as fuels,
other than conventional, fossil-sources (such as oil,coal, and natural gas). It is also processed to jet fuel inan alternative manner. Feedstocks for SAF are varied;
ranging from cooking oil, plant oils, municipal waste,
waste gases, and agricultural residues — to name a few.
»» Fuel — Fuel means jet fuel that meets the technical andcertification requirements for use in commercial aircraft.
Sustainable aviation fuels are certified like any other jet fuelbefore they can be used for regular service. They can be safely
mixed with the latter to varying degrees, use the same supply
infrastructure and do not require the adaptation of aircraft orengines. Fuels with these properties are called “drop-in fuels”(i.e., fuels that can be automatically incorporated into existing
airport fuelling systems).
Moreover, to validly use the term ‘sustainable’ they mustmeet sustainability criteria such as lifecycle carbon emissions
reductions, limited fresh water requirements, no competition
with needed food production and no deforestation.
Sustainability criteria are defined at international level through
ICAO, by bodies such as the Roundtable for Sustainable
Biomaterials, or regionally and locally through schemes such as
the European Union’s RED II and California’s LCFS.

Developing scenarios
A set of scenarios were generated based on two methods. The
first took the current expected supply ramp-up trajectory andplotted this out to 2050. The second used a ‘backcast’ analysis
from each of the consolidated scenarios to determine themagnitude of the SAF needed to ‘close the gap’ with the goal.

Waypoint 2050

SAF
volumes(To meet
net-zero in
2050 (90% fuelreplaced at100% ERF))

Emissions
reduction
factoraverage

Production
facilities

Investment
cost(2050)

CO2
reduction

0.05 Mt(0.063 bn
litres)~70%0.11 Mt CO2 0.03%

Series of new production
facilities come on stream in the2020-2025 timeframe, beginningof scale-up process

3-8 Mt(3.8-10 bn
litres)80%96

8-20 Mt
CO2~2%30-195 Mt(40-240 bn
litres)100%

95-615 Mt
CO2Current
trends —baseline

A continuation of the current
growth of SAF development,
extrapolated to 2050. A low
scenario represents a linear
continuation of average ratesof SAF deployment and a highscenario includes an s-curve
extrapolation, based off current
levels of ramp-up.

6-39%
of fuel use
in 2050(depending
on fuelvolumescenario)

F2

A backcast which would see a
ramp-up of SAF production

380 Mt(475 bnlitres)100%

1,200 Mt
CO2

90%
of fuel use
in 2050

5,904$1.25 trillion

A backcast which prioritises SAF
deployment over spending ontechnology

445 Mt(550 bnlitres)100%

1,400 Mt
CO2

90%
of fuel use
in 2050

7,026$1.45 trillion

A backcast which fills in the gap
following significant radical
technology deployment

330 Mt(410 bnlitres)100%

1,040 Mt
CO2

90%
of fuel use
in 20504,964$1.1 trillion

Scenario

Description

2020
situation

Nascent industry starting toramp up new energy source.

2025
forecast

F1

Pushingtechnology
and SAF

F3
Aggressive
SAF

F4
Aspirational
technologydriven

95% of fuelsupply73(2020-2050)(2020-2050)

Sustainable aviation fuel ramp-up long-term

Simple analysis of ramp-up required for several scenarios and expected volumes of SAF required in 2050, assuming a 100%emissions reduction factor in 2050.
450

F3

400

F2

Quantity of SAF (in Mt)

350

F4

300
250
200

F1 high+

150
100
50

F1

0
2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

74

Waypoint 2050

Current status

financing, offtake agreement negotiations, building consents
and construction, the next few years are likely to see a raftof new production facilities come on stream. But despite thisramp-up in supply, it will need to be doubled for the industry
to reach 2% of jet fuel use in 2025.

Since 2011, when SAF was approved for use in commercial
flight, there has been a slow but steady increase in the
production of SAF. In 2015, the first regular supply of SAF
started being delivered to airports. Given the timeline for

SAF in the next years97
Current production will follow the F1 trajectory, but the expected policy environment in the next 2-4 years will shift towards
the F1 high trajectory at a global level. The F1 high+ trajectory is very feasible, but extra policy initiatives are needed toreach that point: recent announcements suggest this could be a possibility towards the 2030 timeframe. Practicalities offinancing, construction and production timelines around the world mean getting above F1 high+ is unlikely before 2030.
Year

F1

F1 high

F1 high+

Production
facilities(expected
date to start
producing)

2020

2021E

2022F

2023F

2024F

2025F

2026F

2027F

2028F

2029F

2030F

000 tonnes

50.4

80

376

1,092

1,877

3,071

4,299

4,914

6,142

7,370

9,213

m litres

63

100

470

1,365

2,346

3,839

5,374

6,142

7,677

9,212

11,516% of fuel

0.03%

0.04%

0.15%

0.4%

0.6%

1%

1.3%

1.5%

1.8%

2.1%

2.5%

000 tonnes

50.4

95

562

1,632

2,806

4,591

6,427

7,346

9,182

11,018

13,773m litres

63

119

703

2,040

3,507

5,739

8,034

9,182

11,477

13,773

17,216% of fuel

0.03%

0.05%

0.22%

0.6%

0.9%

1.5%

2.0%

2.2%

2.6%

3.1%

3.7%

000 tonnes

166

978

2,838

4,879

7,984

11,178

12,774

15,968

19,162

23,952m litres

208

1,222

3,548

6,099

9,980

13,972

15,96819,960,23,952

29,940% of fuel

0.09%

0.4%

1%

1.6%

2.6%

3.5%

3.8%

4.6%

5.3%

6.5%

Fulcrum(US)

World
Energy(US exp)

SkyNRG(NL)

Velocys(UK)

LanzaTech(Nth Asia/ EU)

Red Rock
(US)

Eni
(IT)

UPM
(US)

Gevo
(US)

Neste
(SG exp)

ECB(PY)

Marathon
(US)

Total
(FR)

Repsol
(CO)

Preem
(SE)

ST1
(SE)

Phillips 66(US)

How switching to SAF reduces emissions
There are different approaches to measuring lifecycle reductionsof CO2 emissions in SAF, but all come from the basic premise ofeither using a fuel based on feedstocks that draw in CO2 as they
are produced, recycling CO2 emissions from waste sources or
CO2 captured directly from the air. The CO2 emissions from theburning of the fuel in an aircraft engine are not fundamentallydifferent to fossil fuels, but the production of the feedstock takes
CO2 out of the atmosphere, creating a ‘loop’. In addition, the useof SAF has sometimes shown to have a small improvement infuel performance (the slightly higher energy density of SAF had
resulted in a smaller fuel burn), as well as benefits in reducing
particulate matter emissions, leading to greater air quality
performance and possibly even lower contrail formation.
Lifecycle emissions reductions are not generally 100% by
themselves, given the energy needs to process the raw feedstock
into sustainable aviation fuel and transport it to the airport.
However, if the production facilities are run on renewableenergy and transport is through pipelines or using alternative

At least 30 additional facilities (or expansions) anticipatedin the 2025-2030 timeframe

energy vehicles, the emissions reduction factor can be
improved significantly: even beyond 100% with the addition ofcarbon capture and storage (CCS) of CO2 or methane from theproduction processes.
The CO2 reductions possible through a shift to SAF can be
accounted for two ways: by the volumes of SAF deployed(the percentage of SAF blended with traditional fuel acrossthe system); and the emissions reduction factor (the lifecycle
reduction in CO2 emissions when compared with fossil jet fuel).
For example, one could replace 100% of the fuel needed with
SAF that has an emissions reduction factor (ERF) of 10% and you
would have a 10% saving in CO2. Or replacing 10% of the fuel with
SAF that has a 100% ERF has the same result. This ‘trade space’
can be altered over time to give an idea of the volumes of SAF
required or the lifecycle CO2 emissions requirements to meet thesame overall CO2 emissions reductions.
Today’s best performing SAF sources have around a 90% ERF,
although others are less: the average ERF is likely around 70%
today. Over time, the emissions reduction factors will likely
improve and some feedstocks in experimental conditions areWaypoint 2050

even displaying a greater than 100% ERF. These are particularly
rotational crops that help sequester CO2 in the soil as theygrow. Additionally, as technologies such as CCS mature, thesmall production inefficiencies of SAF can be further reduced,
improving the ERF. Even today, some production processes with
CCS additions are showing emissions reductions of over 150%
and even 200%98 .
For the purposes of the Waypoint 2050 analysis, it was
decided to limit the ERF in 2050 to 100% reduction in CO2 ,despite the probability that it could be higher at that point.
This was to maintain a conservative outlook and not rely too
heavily on CCS, but leave room for further improvement.

Availability of feedstock75

SAF availability from various feedstocks, Mt107
Change from 2020 to 2050 is because the assumed productslate is increasingly optimised for SAF as road markets
electrify. Only industrial waste gases reduce as the steel
industry decarbonises. Central case.
SAF Availability (Mt)

2020

2050

Waste and residue lipids

11.6

13.9

Oil crops and trees

13.4

16.1

Cellulosic cover crops

24.8

27.4

Agricultural residues

52.5

57.9

Woody biomass

51.7

51.7

Municipal solid waste

22.0

22.0

Industrial waste gases

28.6

9.5

Total

205

198

One of the key questions about the use of SAF at scale iswhether there is enough source material to generate therequired quantities, given the growth in the industry’s
demand for fuel. Several independent assessments99 havefound that, yes, there is enough feedstock from sustainablesources to more than meet the needs of the industry in 2050
and beyond.

Sources of SAF

Outlined in the table over the next pages, including detailed
work carried out in 2021 for Waypoint 2050107, the central casefor a range of different sources (with appropriate sustainability
filters added) shows that around 200 Mt of SAF annually
could be produced through ‘traditional’ SAF pathways alone.
Power-to-liquid (PtL), has an unlimited potential, although comeswith challenges to scaling up. The highest need for SAF in the
Waypoint 2050 scenarios (outlined in Scenario 2: aggressive SAF
deployment) is around 445Mt of SAF in 2050.

One important aspect of the search for alternative sourcesof fuel for aviation has been the need to take a ‘portfolio’
approach to the development of the sector. There is no one
single solution, but opportunities exist across different
types of feedstock and can be tailored to locally appropriate
feedstocks. Some parts of the world may have large amountsof agricultural waste. Others might have municipal waste
landfill problems. The next pages outline several potential
SAF feedstock assessments.

Feedstock availability by region exajoules (EJ)107
SAF feedstock availability is not uniform across the world. Some regions have a higher availability of land for (non-food) crop-based
feedstocks, others have large volumes of household waste or the conditions for renewable electricity supply. Asia-Pacific shows thehighest potential for feedstock out of all regions, as well as the most air traffic growth over the coming decades.

All values in EJ

15

10

5

0

Asia-Pacific

BIOMASS FROM DEDICATED LAND

EuropeLatin America & Caribbean

WOODY BIOMASSMUNICIPAL WASTESNorth America

AfricaAGRICULTURAL WASTES

Middle East

WASTE GASESUPSIDE

76

Waypoint 2050

State of development

Global SAF
potential per yearby 2050

Opportunities and challenges

Substantial quantities of MSW
exist globally which are notused for energy production andnearly all end up in landfills. A
number of MSW feedstock plants
are under construction, withthe first major facility close tocompletion.

22 Mt

MSW opportunities are heavily
influenced by whether a waste
disposal fee exists for depositing
MSW into a landfill site. A
significant opportunity appears to
be imposing MSW disposal costs
in countries (often developing)that don’t have this.

Woody biomass

Opportunities are substantial
but tend to be linked to specificregions (such as the Nordics)
that have an existing timber or
paper industry.

52 Mt

There is a limit to how muchforestry residue can be collectedbased on existing paper orforestry industry economics
of collection of material anddistance from collection points.

Agricultural waste
residues

Agricultural residues represent
a significant feedstockopportunity, including indeveloping nations where they
are often burned (creating
dangerous air quality issues),
but still need to be demonstrated
economically at scale.

58 Mt

Challenges are the economic
aggregation of residues, or
ensuring that residues do not goto other markets, such as feed.

Waste oils and lipids

Used cooking oil and tallow arereasonably simple feedstocks,
being used in continuous
production today.

14 Mt

The major limiting challenge
is the supply of used cooking
oil and tallow. Aggregation andcollection of used cooking oil isefficient. Tallow collection lessof an issue as it is concentrated
in major meat processing plants,
however the potential supply
will be limited to match that ofmeat production.

Industrial off gases

Carbon monoxide (industrial offgas) is used to produce ethanol,
which can be converted into SAF.
While the technology is proven,economics result in mostly
ethanol being produced
at present.

9.5 MtSignificant quantities of industrial
off gases exist, globally, but
especially in countries like China
and India that have large steel
industries — there is very realpotential for scale up of thisproduction pathway.

Municipal solid
waste (MSW)
Following sorting to remove
any recyclable components,
typical organic MSW can beprocessed into SAF.

The cellulosic waste left overfrom agricultural production,for example the stalks andstems of sugarcane.

Recycling the off gases fromsteel and other industrial
production processes into SAF.

Waypoint 2050

State of development
Oil crops:

Carinata
Carinata is an oil seed grass thatis grown in marginal conditions
and can be used as a rotational
cover crop in winter.

Oil crops:

Camelina
Mostly produced in Europe andAsia, Camelina is a short-season
crop that takes 85-100 days tomature and requires ~10 inchesof rain to produce a crop, which
can be grown in a wide variety ofsoil types and conditions.

Oil crops:

Jatropha

Carinata appears to be well
suited to parts of South America,
Australia, and Europe as a rotation
crop. It has been used as a HEFA
feedstock to power flights already.

Global SAF
potential per yearby 2050

16 Mt

77

Opportunities and challenges

An improvement in life cycle
potential is possible, as significant
biomass is returned to the soil,
potentially allowing for emissions
reduction factors greater than
100%. Carinata is well suited toarid land, however the challenge
can be the economics of lowdensity production.

Camelina has been used to
produce SAF and was a key focusof the European FlightPath project.

Well suited to non-productive land,
which improves sustainability
credentials, but adds an economic
challenge for cultivation.

Trials have taken place inparts of Europe

Well suited to non-productive land,
which improves sustainability
credentials, but adds an economic
challenge for cultivation.

Oil crop which grows reasonably
well in dry areas on degradedsoils that are marginally suited
for agriculture, producing
countries include Indonesia,
Ghana, Madagascar and Brazil.

Oil crops:
The above is a small selection of the many non-food oil crops that could be explored, with research ongoing into crops such as Pennycress,
Macaruba, Agave and Pongamia. The Solaris project in South Africa has been exploring the use of a no nicotine tobacco plant to create
sustainable aviation fuel with a 70% emissions reduction factor whilst creating opportunities for traditional tobacco farmers to diversify.

Oil 'crop':

Micro- and macro-algae has
been extensively studied and has
great potential, although thisfeedstock is yet to be developed
into commercial-scale facilities.
Of particular interest is the ability
to grow large amounts of algaewith a limited footprint.

More progress needs to be madein the energy consumption of algae
cultivation and drying before thisbecomes a commercially viable
source.

Oil 'crop':

Has been proven in test flights
to work in aviation at a small
scale with a clear opportunity
being the lack of requirement for
fresh water, implying significant
opportunity to use desert land inplaces like the Middle East.

A limitation will be the potential
to scale up into very large
production. Could remain a niche
supplier.

Algae

Halophytes
A salt-tolerant plant that grows
in soil or waters of high salinity,
such as in saline semi-deserts,
mangrove swamps, marshes
and sloughs and seashores.

78

Waypoint 2050

State of development
Cellulosic crops:

MiscanthusHigh yielding energy cropthat grows over 3 metrestall, resembles bamboo andproduces a crop every year
without the need for replanting.
Flourishes in subtropical andtropical regions of Africa andsouthern Asia, grows throughout
most of China, Japan and Korea,
also common in US.

Cellulosic crops:

Switchgrass

Native to the United States andsuitable energy crop because of
its perennial growth habit, highyield potential on a wide variety
of soil conditions and types,
compatibility with conventionalfarming practices, and value
in improving soil and water
conservation and quality.

Cellulosic crops:

Reed Canarygrass

Potentially a big opportunity,with yields potential of 500 kgs of
SAF per hectare of crop but has
not been progressed outside ofacademic modelling.

Global SAF
potential per yearby 2050

27 Mt

Opportunities and challenges» Requires further analysis andreal-world trials» Could develop growing
programmes in ideal terrains
as pilot projects» Opportunity to improve thecollection and distribution ofthis feedstock

Has mainly been a theoretical
opportunity so far, but with yieldpotential of 800kg of SAF per
hectare.

» Requires further analysis andreal-world trials» Could develop growing
programmes in ideal terrains
as pilot projects» Opportunity to improve thecollection and distribution ofthis feedstock

Potential SAF yield of 400kg per
hectare of crop grown.

» Requires further analysis andreal-world trials» Could develop growing
programmes in ideal terrains
as pilot projects

Perennial wetland grass, native
to parts of the US, Europe, andAsia. It is a cool-season grassthat is less productive thanwarm-season grasses.

» Opportunity to improve thecollection and distribution ofthis feedstock

Cellulosic crops:
The above is a small selection of the many non-food cellulosic crops that could be explored, with research ongoing into a range of other crops.

Power-to-liquid
Using renewable electricity toconvert CO 2 (either captured
from industrial processes ordirect from the air) into SAF.
Could be deployed anywherein the world. Initially likely tobe near existing industrial
facilities or close to sourcesof renewable energy.

Early stages of developmentwith lab-scale tests showing thetechnology works but needs to befurther developed. Some partsof the technology process (i.e.
Fischer-Tropsch processing) arevery mature and in common use.

Potentiallyunlimited supply
Expected ERF:
95%

Significant potential for scaleup and production of nearly
100% emissions reduction whencompared to fossil jet fuel. Three
major challenges: the maturity ofthe technology; the availability ofhydrogen in sufficient quantities;
and most significantly the needfor large quantities of low carbon
electricity.

Waypoint 2050

79

Sources of sustainable aviation fuel, global 2020-2050 107
Production capacity by feedstock, Mt per year

HEFA

SCENARIO 1

ADVANCED FEEDSTOCKSF2WASTE GASESSCENARIO 2

F3SCENARIO 3

500

500

500

400

400

400

300

190Mt

200

9Mt
155Mt

100

27Mt

0
2020

2030

2040

2050

Slightly under half of 2050 capacity isdelivered using bio-feedstocks, suchas agricultural, forestry and municipal
waste. In later years these feedstocks
become increasingly constrained, withincremental capacity shifting to PtL.
By 2043, greater capacity is added by
PtL facilities than bio-feedstocks, andby 2050, 50% of total capacity uses
renewable power/PtL as feedstock.
The production cost initially increases
as first-of-a-kind AtJ and FT facilities
come into operation, and then rapidly
drops as the technologies mature. As
PtL capacity grows in the last decade
the average cost increases, before
levelling out at $1,420 per tonne SAF
capacity. Including a conservativevalue for the carbon reductiondelivered through SAF ($200/tCO2)
reduces the cost of SAF to $850 per
tonne, which is meaningfully within the
typical range of costs for fossil jet fuel.

252Mt

300
200

9Mt
155Mt

100

27Mt

0
2020

2030

2040

2050

The availability of bio-feedstocks is
exhausted by 2040, with a large-scale
shift to power-to-liquids production
using renewable electricity. By 2050,
over half of all SAF production capacity
uses PtL feedstock, and just 41%
from biological feedstocks, with thebalance from residual use of waste
gases. The production cost increase
as first-of-a-kind AtJ and FT facilities
come into operation, and then rapidly
decreases as the technologies mature.
However, the cost of PtL drives up
costs in later years, with the average
cost of production plateauing at $1,470
per tonne SAF in 2050. Including
a conservative value of carbon
reductions ($200/tCO2) reduces thecost of SAF to $900 per tonne, at the
top of the range for historical fossil
fuel costs.

F4

300

139Mt

200

9Mt
156Mt

100

27Mt

0
2020

2030

2040

2050

The availability of bio-feedstocks
allows production capacity to increase
through 2050, although PtL starts
to dominate additional construction
from 2045 onward. Over half of SAF
production uses biological feedstocks
by 2050, with 42% from PtL and thebalance from residual use of waste
gases. The production cost increases
as first-of-a-kind AtJ and FT facilities
come into operation, and then rapidly
decreases as the technologies mature.
As PtL capacity grows in the last
decade the average cost increases,
before levelling out at $1,330 per tonne
SAF capacity. Including the value ofcarbon reductions reduces the cost of
SAF to $760 per tonne, which is wellwithin the historical range of costs forfossil fuels.

These scenarios are further explored, and at regional levels, in the companion report Fuelling Net Zero, by ICF on behalfof ATAG.

Rotational cover crops

What was excluded from the analysis?

A number of options exist for use of so-called rotational covercrops. These crops can be grown in fields normally plantedwith food crops, but during winter or in years when fields
are normally left fallow. This ensures that arable land cancontinue to grow food and actually benefits the soil — leading
to increased yields in the seasons where food crops are grown.
These rotational crops help to restore nitrogen in the soils,
can sequester carbon dioxide, improve water absorption andreduce erosion and runoff, amongst other benefits.

The analysis on pages 76-78, undertaken by ICF using datafrom the Energy Transitions Commission108, takes a very
conservative approach to assessing the likely availability offeedstocks and the demand from sectors other than aviation.
It does not, for example, make use of significant quantities ofarable land, reserving them for production of food and limits
the expectations from early-stage technologies such as algae.

80

Waypoint 2050

This analysis considers three key constraints, covering
sustainability, fairness, and economic limitations. The
sustainability constraint reflects the environmental andsocial limitations on the feedstock availability, such as
the constraints on land that can sustainably be used forenergy crop growth, or the fraction of agricultural residues
that must be left on the land to maintain the soil quality.
The fairness constraint reflects the balance of feedstocks
that can be used for SAF production, compared to use byother sectors. Many of these feedstocks are used today forheating, animal bedding or feed, soaps, lubricants, and as
raw material for oleochemicals industry. As other industries
also decarbonise, there will likely be increasing demand forfeedstocks to produce heat and energy, and for material uses
such as bioplastics. Aviation is a fraction of global emissions
and the decarbonisation of aviation must be matched bydecarbonisation across all sectors, so the demand fromother sectors must be considered. The final constraint is thevolume of feedstock that can be economically used to produce
fuels and enable flights at economically sustainable sociallyacceptable prices.

Choices, use by other sectors
The ability for aviation to complete an energy transition tosustainable aviation fuels relies on a number of factors: thecost of the fuel to airlines is a key consideration, as is thelogistical ability for the energy system to make the transitionin 30 years. Key to this is the enabling environment: theaccess for new energy suppliers to capital markets for theconstruction of production facilities; and policy choices bygovernments to ensure that aviation is seen as a priority forthe use of these feed sources.

Analysis by the Energy Transitions Commission109,
International Energy Agency110 and World Economic Forum111
has shown that between 30 and 110 EJ of bio-feedstock
is available per year, with higher levels of availability if
technological or societal changes (such as reduced meat
consumption) create new opportunities for land use.
However, there are other potential users for these feedstocks
other than aviation.
Aviation is rightly seen as a ‘hard to abate’ sector, one of
the few parts of the economy which does not have readily
accessible low carbon energy options (alongside shipping,heavy duty land transport, steel, plastic and cement
production). All other transport has the ability to transfer
to electricity or has the ability to turn to alternative energy
carriers such as LNG, methanol, DME or hydrogen. Whilstboth electricity and hydrogen could be excellent options for
short-haul air transport by 2035-2040, long-haul aviation
will rely on liquid fuel for many decades and should be seen asa priority user of the feedstock and production potential.
The choice lies with governments to set the right policy
framework for the use of these sources. Given those choices,
for the Waypoint 2050 analysis, a conservative 20 EJ of
biomass was made available to aviation (with the rest goingto other industrial sectors). This forms the basis forassumptions across each of the scenarios, being augmented
by waste gases and PtL pathways. Detailed modelling across48 different feedstock / production processes / regional
availability generated the model which was used to identify
the most suitable opportunities at the right cost andemissions reduction.

Bio-feedstocks provide around 20EJ per year112
Additional energy from waste gases and low-carbon electricity (PtL) being used to fulfil demand.
+RENEWABLE
ELECTRICITYAVAILABILITY

35

Aviation (EJ)30

HIGH BIO+4.1 EJ IN 202025
20

+1.2 EJ IN 2050
CENTRAL

15PRUDENT BIO

10
50

Biofeedstock

Waste gases 2020

Waste gases 2050

PtL

Waypoint 2050

Current approved pathways
Following the first test flight on alternative fuels in January
2008, a collaborative effort was made by engineers, chemists
and aviation fuel experts to go through rigorous safety andcertification processes to approve the use of SAF in passenger
flights across the system. Each pathway needs to undergoa rigorous testing and analysis procedure before being
approved by a panel of technical experts from the industry
including airframe and engine manufacturers. This process
is part of ASTM International, the global standards setting
agency for fuels. Once approved, each pathway can be used togenerate sustainable aviation fuel which can be blended withfossil fuel and used in flight.
As of publication, there are seven approved pathways, witha further eight in the pipeline for testing and approval overthe coming years. Each pathway widens the opportunities
for more SAF to be supplied over time. Currently, there isa blending limit of 50% SAF mixed with fossil fuel (some ofthe processes have a lower blending limit). This is primarily
due to a lack of aromatics in sustainable aviation fuel. These

particulates help seals to swell inside older aircraft engines
and prevent fuel leaks. Newer engines do not have thisconcern, and SAF has been performance tested at 100% innewer aircraft. While SAF production volumes remain low,a blend limit does not hamper the use of SAF, however, it isexpected that the blend limit will eventually increase to 100%.

Ensuring sustainability
From the very first steps towards a new energy source, theaviation sector has agreed that sustainability must be at thecore of the transition. Aviation has been able to learn fromthe mistakes made in first-generation biofuels used in roadtransport, building systems to avoid these pitfalls. From the
beginning, the Sustainable Aviation Fuels Users Group, acommittee of airlines, has determined key criteria to ensure
best practice in this area. Coupled with the Roundtable on
Sustainable Biomaterials (a multi-stakeholder organisation
founded by environmental groups and experts in assessing
sustainability certification for the bio economy); andthe development of standards at ICAO, there is a robust
framework for sustainably scaling up SAF.

Pathways and processes

Feedstock options

FT-SPK

biomass (forestry residues, grasses,
municipal solid waste)

Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic
Paraffinic Kerosene

Producers using
the pathway

Date of ATSM Current
approval
blending limit

2009

up to 50%

2011

up to 50%

HEFA-SPK

used cooking oil, waste animal fats,distillers corn oil, tall oil, algae, jatropha,
camelina

World Energy /Neste / SkyNRG/ Phillips 66/ Marathon /Gron, DiamondGreen / AIC / +HFS-SIPmicrobial conversion of sugars
to hydrocarbon

Amyris / Total

2014

up to 10%

FT-SPK/A

renewable biomass such as municipal
solid waste, agricultural wastes andforestry residues, wood and energy crops

Fulcrum /Velocys / Red
Rock

2015

up to 50%

ATJ-SPK

agricultural waste products (stover,grasses, forestry slash, crop straws)

Gevo

2016

up to 50%

ATJ-SPK

Industrial waste gases, agricultural
waste products (stover, grasses, forestry
slash, crop straws)

LanzaTech2018

up to 50%

Triglyceride-based feedstocks (plantoils, waste oils, algal oils, soybean oil,jatropha oil, camelina oil, carinata oil
and tung oil)

ARA / Euglena

2020

up to 50%

Biologically-derived hydrocarbons
such as algae

IHI World

2020

up to 10%

Hydroprocessed Esters
and Fatty Acids

Hydroprocessed Fermented
Sugars to Synthetic Isoparaffins

Fischer-Tropsch Synthetic
Paraffinic Kerosene
with aromatics

Alcohol-to-Jet Synthetic Paraffinic
Kerosene [isobutanol]

Alcohol-to-Jet Synthetic
Paraffinic Kerosene [ethanol]

CHJ

Catalytic hydrothermolysis
synthetic jet fue

HHC-SPK

High Hydrogen Content Synthetic
Paraffinic Kerosene

81

82

Waypoint 2050

Can it be scaled-up?

Sustainability is not just a matter of the choice of feedstocks— it is also how they are collected, cultivated, harvested,
processed and transported. Some key sustainability criteria
for aviation fuels include the following elements:

Given unlimited resources, the analysis shows that there will
be enough feedstock available to completely shift to SAF foraviation113, however, can that be achieved in the next 30 years?
It is instructive to look at other forms of renewable energy to
see what trajectories have been observed.

»» Will not displace, or compete with, food crops or cause
deforestation»» Minimise impact on biodiversity»» Produce substantially lower life-cycle greenhouse gas
emissions than conventional fossil fuels»» Will be certified sustainable with respect to land, waterand energy use»» Deliver positive socio-economic impact
As a global transportation sector, aviation needs a harmonised
standard to ensure that sustainability criteria are equallyapplied across the industry. A patchwork of standards would
inhibit the development of a commercially viable market.
While there are myriad standards in place, both regulatory
and voluntary, a critical element will be for aviation fuelstakeholders to enable greater cooperation between standards
to increase transparency, decrease the cost of compliance,increase end-user visibility to the biomass, and increase the
incentives for next-generation fuel pathways. It is also vitalthat a unified accounting structure be established to verify
the origin and sustainability credentials of these new fuels
for aviation. The ICAO CORSIA is expected to be a driver toachieve this.
The development of an accepted set of globally harmonised
standards will help ensure that investment is directed atfuels that meet clearly defined and internationally-agreed
sustainability criteria, thus minimising this form of risk.
Criteria need to be mutually recognised around the world. For
aviation, global standards are needed wherever possible, due
to operational routing of aircraft, common global equipment
and worldwide fuel purchasing requirements.

Ethanol is one such illustration, with production increases
in Brazil and the United States (which together produce 85%of the first-generation biofuel) having been driven by policy
incentives in both countries: the Pró-Álcool programme andRenewable Fuel Standard which both required minimum
blending into transportation fuels. Over 100 billion litres of
ethanol was produced globally in 2016.
Biodiesel production in the United States increased
substantially between 2001 and 2016, with over 8 billion litres
being produced per year at its peak.
Since 2000, wind and solar capacity has increased 65-fold,with advances taking place at a speed which has defied
forecasts114. Whereas the first 1,000 gigawatts of wind andsolar required an estimated $2.3 trillion of capital spend,
BloombergNEF estimates reaching 2,000 gigawatts will only
cost $1.23 trillion, set to take place before 2024.
Analysis shows the comparison of the expected and/or
required trajectories of quantities of SAF under the W2050
project along with;»» the global ethanol production where the 1980 year
shifted/matched to 2025 for aviation SAF forecast levels.
»» US biodiesel with the production in 2012 shifted/matched
to 2025 for aviation SAF forecast levels.
Historical trends for alternative fuels from other sectors (e.g.,ethanol and biodiesel) are in line with low W2050 scenario for
SAF based on a linear extrapolation of current SAF production
forecast through 2025. It is also important to consider the

Global wind and solar installations, cumulative to June 30, 2018
SMALL-SCALE PV

GWUTILITY-SCALE PV

OFFSHORE WINDONSHORE WIND

1,200
Total: 1,013 GW
1,000
164
800
307
600
19
400
523
200

1H 2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

0

Waypoint 2050

steepness of the slopes (i.e., growth rate) of quantities ofalternative fuels. Between 2010 and 2016 when market
conditions were strong, US biodiesel grew at an average CAGR
of more than 40%. US ethanol had CAGR of 18% between 2001
and 2010. In comparison, under a mid-scenario, the growthrate of quantity of SAF from 2025 to 2035 is in the order of 22%
per annum. It is also important to consider the geographicalscope of these markets where the W2050 scenarios envision
global mobilisation of multiple pathways, rather than just a
few nations and one technology as illustrated with the ethanoland biodiesel precedents.

Scaling up power-to-liquid
There is a considerable opportunity in the development of thepower-to-liquid option for SAF development. Assuming thetechnology is progressed and the cost significantly reduced,
PtL could make a significant contribution to the portfolio
of different pathways for SAF production and its scalability
is theoretically unlimited. The cost of the resulting fuel will
be a core driver of airline demand, but perhaps the biggest
challenge is the requirement for renewable energy supply.

83

Scaling up renewable energy to provide for the productionof aviation fuel will require significant investment in solar,
wind and possibly nuclear capacity. At the same time, theworld needs to shift existing electricity to renewable or low
carbon sources (currently, just 36% of global electricity is
produced from low carbon sources119). The cost of electricity
from these sources is rapidly declining — particularly solar
and wind — and the share of electricity supply from thesesources is increasing120, but not currently fast enough to meetthe climate goals set by the Paris Agreement. Some estimatessuggest these low carbon sources will generate around 50% of
global electricity in the latter years of the 2020s121.
The push to develop PtL as an option for aviation will needto take place in this environment and could either be seen as
an additional driver for increased acceleration in renewable
and low carbon electricity supply throughout the economy,
or a less important user of the resource than other transportmodes and users. However, as the rest of the economy shifts
to low carbon electricity, liquid fuels for aviation could
be a longer-term user of this energy supply. Given current
trajectories122, there do not appear to be concerns withcapacity constraints for renewable electricity by 2050.

Scaling up the production of SAF is going to be a challenge, but not insurmountable

Waypoint 2050 sustainable aviation fuel scenarios are placed in context of the historical evolution and ramp-up of other alternative
sources of energy (global ethanol production 83, USA biodiesel production 84, solar electricity generating capacity 85, wind electricity
generating capacity 86). Given that the SAF scenarios represent forecasts from 2019-2050 and the alternative sources of energy arebased on historical data, timescales for the alternative sources of energy were shifted to align to an arbitrary year (2025) for the
purpose of analysis and illustration. The historical evolution of quantities of global ethanol production and USA biodiesel
represented in terms of volumes (in litres in a given year) without conversion to equivalent energy. Global solar electricity and windelectricity are represented on the right-hand scale (in TWh in a given year) aligned with the equivalent energy from jet fuel. The
SAF volume of 3.5 billion litres in 2025 corresponds to approximately 1980 production levels of global ethanol, 2012 productionlevels of USA biodiesel, 2010 energy level from solar and 2000 energy level from wind. The industry believes that it can reasonably
reach twice this level of SAF production in 2025 (i.e. around 6-7 billion litres).
500
4500
450

F3

F2

350

3500

F4

3000

300

2500

250
200

F1

2000

high+

1500

150
100

1000

50

500
F1

0

0
2015

2020

WAYPOINT 2050
SAF SCENARIOS

2025

2030

SOLAR
ELECTRICITY(SHIFTEDTIMESCALE)

2035

2040

WIND
ELECTRICITY(SHIFTEDTIMESCALE)

2045

2050

GLOBALETHANOL(SHIFTEDTIMESCALE)

2055

2060

USA
BIODIESEL(SHIFTEDTIMESCALE)

Energy (in TWh) for solar and wind

Quantity of Fuel (billion litres) for liquid fuels

4000
400

84

Waypoint 2050

SAF costs will come down (carbon cost included)125
Indicative analysis for a selection of SAF pathways at a global level shows that costs will be able to reduce, mainly driven by
economies of scale and some feedstock input reductions. There are a range of costs displayed showing a spread for different
feedstock types. Production cost shown includes the value of the carbon reduction, i.e. the net production cost. This allows it to becompared to fossil fuel costs on a level basis. By adding in the cost of carbon ($100 per tonne in 2030, rising to $200 per tonne by2050), it is likely that there will be a levelling in the differential between SAF and fossil jet fuel, but it is clear that government
support in the next decade can make all the difference to the long-term availability and uptake of SAF. This should also be seen in
the context of historical jet fuel costs, which have fluctuated significantly in the past 20 years. Future oil prices are unknown.
$5,000

Production cost (USD per tonne of SAF)

$4,500Fossil jet fuel price spread, 2000-2019(highest and lowest points)$4,000$3,500$3,000$2,500$2,000$1,500$1,000
2050

2040

2030

$0

2025

$500

Waste &
Residue
Lipids + HEFA

SAF
pathway

Oil crops& trees+ HEFA

Cellulosic Agricultural
crops + AtJ
residues
+ AtJ

Woody
biomass+ FT

Municipal
Industrial
Solid waste waste gases
+ FT
+ AtJ

Green
Hydrogen+ FT (PtL)

Share of jet inproduct output

Feedstock types

Projections

HEFA» Rapeseed oil» Oil cover crops» Soybean oil» Crops on
degraded land
» Used cooking oil» Tallows and fats

A reduction in costs of around 3% from 2025-2050, as
current hydrogen is replaced with more expensive (but lower
CO2) green hydrogen. Assumption that most HEFA capacity
is retrofitted from current fossil uses. Feedstocks cost stays
steady throughout period (except for oil crops where supply/ demand dynamics play out), but a decline in operating andcapital expenditures comes with economies of scale.

46%
Could go up to
90% if maximised,but unlikely to rise
above ~60%

ATJ

» Cover crops» Forest residues» Agricultural residues» Municipal solid waste

A reduction in costs of 26% from 2025-2050, driven
by feedstock cost reductions, operating and capital
expenditure improvements.

77%
Can go up to 90%
if using ethanol asintermediary

FTSPK» Cover crops» Forest residues» Agricultural residues» Municipal solid waste

A reduction in costs of 41% from 2025-2050, driven by
expected strong capital expenditure between 2025 and 2030
when technology is fully proven and starts to commercialise.
Addition of carbon capture and storage to the process would
reduce CO2 emissions significantly (including to negativeemissions) but increase the fuel cost by around 6%.

60%

PtL

» Electricity, carbon
captured from the air

A reduction in costs of 61% from 2025-2050, driven by costof hydrogen coming down and the cost / availability of low
carbon electricity.

60%
Can be maximised
to 80-90%

Addition of carbon capture and storage to these processes would reduce CO2 emissions significantly (including to negativeemissions) but increase the fuel cost slightly.

Waypoint 2050

What will be the cost of theenergy transition?

85

year. And Governments provide $317 billion in fossil fuelconsumption subsidies (around $4.4 trillion in subsidies overthe last decade)129.

Despite the current cost of SAF being around 2-3 times thatof fossil jet fuel, analysis shows that, over time, the cost ofsustainable aviation fuel from a variety of sources has theopportunity to reduce significantly. When the cost of carbon
is included, this could come within an acceptable margin of
fossil jet fuel. However, it is clear that government support will
be needed in the 2020-2030 period to set up the basis for the
long-term energy transition for air transport.

Each of these facilities will produce and monetise fuels andco-products additional to SAF, so revenues from aviation will
only support a portion of this investment.
While over 90% of oil and gas production is located injust 22 countries130, the SAF industry will need to leverage
feedstocks across almost every country, improving energy
security, independence, and resilience for many nations.
By bringing the aviation industry, government, energy,
agriculture and academic expertise in a country or
region together, as it is already successfully done in multistakeholder initiatives, industry can analyse the optimal
opportunities that exist in each country for aviation biofuel
production, including the most effective feedstock sources
and infrastructure requirements.

Building a new industry: investment in a
SAF future
Sustainable aviation fuel not only brings environmental
benefits for aviation, but it can also foster the development of
a new industry. Given the diversity of feedstocks that aviationis considering, there are few places that could not support
some development of a new, sustainable, energy industry.
These can range from collection of agricultural waste in themost appropriate environments, to establishment of algae
farms on land or off-shore, to biofuel facilities in cities utilisingmunicipal waste.

The development of a new energy industry will also
bring with it jobs: both new opportunities and as a way
to re-purpose existing fossil fuel based jobs and facilities.
Investments in bioenergy are highly effective to create
jobs, with labour required to gather, process and transport
feedstock, to design, construct and operate facilities, and tosupport the wider supply chain.

The complete transformation of an energy system that has
been in operation for a century will require significant
investment and construction. Analysis for Waypoint 2050
estimates that up to 5,000 – 7,000 facilities may be required
to produce sufficient SAF to achieve the climate targets of theaviation industry126. In 2050, the capacity of an average facility
is estimated to be ~120 million litres (32m gallons, 100,000
tonnes), producing 83 million litres (22m gallons, 65,000
tonnes) of SAF per annum.

Such a transformation of the aviation energy system will
provide opportunities to generate additional jobs andenergy industries closer to the source of feedstocks, as wellas the airports at which airlines will be fuelled. Estimatessuggest this shift could generate up to 14 million jobs in
SAF production worldwide, with around 1.4 million people
employed in the production facilities themselves and up
to 12.6 million in the construction of facilities, collecting
feedstocks (such as used cooking oil and agricultural waste)
and the supply chain and logistics131.

The number of facilities required could be lower if the energy
industry develops a hub-and spoke model for the AtJ and PtL
approaches, with regional production of alcohols and hydrogen
respectively, which are then converted into SAF at central hubs.
Totalled across all feedstocks and regions, this analysis
estimates that an investment of approximately $1 - $1.45trn
will be necessary to build sufficient SAF capacity. Annualised,
this is equivalent to around 6% of yearly oil and gas capital
expenditure . As a point of comparison, global energy
companies spent around $500 billion in 2019 on capital
expenditure127 with historical capex of around $770bn per

Required number of facilities, globally and by region.
Assumes small production close to the source of feedstock - consolidation (and a smaller number of larger facilities) possible,
particularly for some feedstock types.
Scenario

GlobalAfricaAsia Pacific

EuropeLatin America& Caribbean

MiddleEast

North
America1

Pushing technology
and operations

5,904

410

2,270

1,256

726

217

1,025

2

Aggressive SAF
deployment

7,026

464

2,661

1,525

843

279

1,254

3

Aspirational andaggressive technology
perspectives

4,964

355

1,940

1,027

623

172

847

86

Waypoint 2050

Total infrastructure investment required (Billion USD).
Scenario

GlobalAfricaAsia Pacific

EuropeLatin America& Caribbean

MiddleEast

North
America1

Pushing technology
and operations$1,250

$90

$481

$259

$161

$44

$212

2

Aggressive SAF
deployment$1,450

$101

$554

$306

$183

$55

$252

3

Aspirational andaggressive technology
perspectives$1,100

$80

$421

$219

$142

$36

$180

Indicative job creation potentials for SAF production worldwide.
Scenario

GlobalAfricaAsia Pacific

EuropeLatin America& Caribbean

MiddleEast

North
America1

Pushing technology
and operations

13.5 m

1.2 m

5.6 m

2.4 m

1.9 m

0.4 m

2.0 m

2

Aggressive SAF
deployment

14.1 m

1.2 m

5.9 m

2.5 m

2.0 m

0.4 m

2.1 m

3

Aspirational andaggressive technology
perspectives

13.0 m

1.2 m

5.4 m

2.3 m

1.9 m

0.3 m

1.9 m

Waypoint 2050

87

Re-thinking our energy supply
Explorations of the different pathways for aviation’s energy
future as part of Waypoint 2050 work have identified thatthe sector will need access to low-carbon electricity andgreen hydrogen both to produce power-to-liquid SAF andpotentially for primary use in aircraft propulsion (see thediscussion in b) technology).
Analysis for Waypoint 2050 shows that this could consume
between 8% and 18% of the currently planned low-carbon
electricity production and 23-56% of the currently planned
green hydrogen supply in 2050, depending on the scale-upof PtL in particular. However, this depends on the
Waypoint 2050 scenario that is able to be pursued andthese represent the maximum cases as a comparison. The
likelihood is that aviation will need lower quantities of bothelectricity and hydrogen.
Any shift to these forms of energy for aviation will likely
bring with them an increase in generation of both low-carbon
electricity and green hydrogen to meet the needs of airtransport, as the IEA and IRENA analysis of production does
not include hydrogen for direct use in aviation.

Combined air transport demand for electricity and hydrogen, 2050 132
Whether for use as direct energy for aircraft, or as part of the process to produce hydrogen or PtL SAF, this illustrates the total
possible demand aviation may have for low-carbon electricity and green hydrogen in 2050 across each of the three Waypoint 2050
scenarios. These represent upper-bound estimations for illustrative purposes: it is likely that requirements will be lower than this.
The IEA and IRENA scenarios also don’t account for the full use of hydrogen or electricity in aviation, so aviation may boost
investment (and supply) in these energy sources above the current scenarios.

Total electricity

Total hydrogen

80,00070,000500
Hydrogen (in MtH2/yr)

Electricity (in TWh)

47,59550,00040,00030,00020,0000528

62,30060,00010,000600

74,095

S2
Demand from
Aviation Sector

ELECTRICITY USEDFOR HYDROGEN
PRODUCTION FOR PTL

S3

280

300
200

119

157

129

100

6,080 8,540 7,160

S1

400

400

SDS
(IEA)

NZE
(IEA)

NZE
(IRENA)

Potential (economy wide)
production

ELECTRICITY TO MAKE
HYDROGEN FOR DIRECT
USE IN AIRCRAFT

ELECTRICITY FOR DIRECT
USE IN AIRCRAFT

0

S1

S2

S3

Demand from
Aviation Sector

HYDROGEN USEDFOR PRODUCTION OF
PTL AND HEFA SAF

SDS
(IEA)

IRENA
scenario

NZE
(IEA)

Potential (economy wide)
production

HYDROGEN FOR DIRECT USE IN

88

Waypoint 2050

ACCELERATING THE ENERGY TRANSITION
Progress has been made in the development and deployment of SAF over the past ten years. However, to reach levels of SAF
required, both further technological development and improved economics are needed, quickly.
There is a key role for policy frameworks at this crucial early phase of SAF industry development. Without a supportive
policy landscape, the aviation industry is unlikely to scale up biofuel consumption to levels where costs fall and SAF
becomes self-sustaining.
Few industries are as competitive as aviation. This produces excellent outcomes for state economies and consumers.
Producer surplus has historically trended below the weighted average cost of capital meaning both consumers and national
economies receive the benefits of aviation below the true cost. The impact of this situation is the aviation sector is often
cautious when making a business decision involving unquantified risk or potentially subjecting an airline to a competitive
disadvantage. Hence, airlines need encouragement to use SAF from an early stage.
Such incentives are necessary at this early stage of development to close a production cost gap and allow the capacity of
SAF production to increase. But incentives are not expected to be a permanent feature of this energy sector, as learningby-doing and economies of scale bring production costs lower and remove the gap between SAF and fossil fuels. Policy is atemporary gap-filler to assist the economics of SAF production reach self-sustaining profitability and scalability.
The aviation industry has committed to ambitious goals for reducing emissions. SAF is an important part of the plan toreach these goals and the industry and its partners have made significant progress. There is confidence that SAF can be avery significant part of every airline’s future. From policymakers, the industry is looking for the right set of legal, fiscal andpolicy responses to ensure this new energy stream can be incorporated into business as usual as quickly as possible.

Action items for the aviation sector
Action item

Description

Timeline

Get started by doing afirst test flight

Airlines should begin with taking part in test flights andgetting used to the process to deliver and use SAF, before
looking into long-term agreements. Whilst doing a single
flight on SAF will not change the world in a macro sense,
getting the experience from a logistical and internal
coordination perspective is a valuable stepping-stone tolarger involvement.

Possibletoday

Make substantial and bold
SAF offtake agreements at
an early stage

Airlines must be willing to take a long-term view and invest
in SAF offtake agreements at an early stage. Several airlines
have made important investments in this area, but a lot more
will be needed.

Will take a
2-3 years

Show leadership to set up
the policy infrastructureneeded for SAF
acceleration

Provide industry leadership on best practice concerning:sustainability standards, accounting procedures, logistics,
communication, effective policy and business casedevelopment.

Possibletoday

Make the case togovernments andthe finance community for
SAF

Ensure aviation can opt-in to existing ground transport
policies and build understanding for the importance of
directing feedstock towards hard to abate sectors such asaviation.

Possibletoday

Difficulty levelWaypoint 2050

89

Action items for the aviation sector
Action item

Description

Timeline

Provide support to airlines
for SAF projects in local
areas

Airports: whilst most airports are not involved first-hand infuel purchasing (or distribution), the support of airports inhelping to develop local SAF opportunities for airline partners
and promote smart government policy can be invaluable.

Possible
today

Join SAFUG
or the RSB

The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Users Group and / or the Round
Table on Sustainable Biomaterials are key fora to ensurethat the energy transition takes place in a robust andsustainable way.

Possible
today

Bring passengers
and major customers on
board

Allow passengers and corporate customers to take part indirect SAF purchases through your booking engine — paying
the difference between the cost of SAF and fossil jet. Thishas proven to be a popular option for a couple of airlines thatoffer it, allowing passengers to ensure they are making a
difference in a robust way.

Could take2-3 years

Foster research to
explore the feasibility ofaugmenting the maximum
blend rate usable during
regular service

While the maximum blend rate istoday set at 50%, it may be technically feasible to augment it
to allow flying with 100% SAF.

By 2025

Difficulty level

Action items and policy proposals for governments133
Action item

Description

Timeline

Clean energy transition
push across government

Commit to supporting an energy transition through significant
investment in sustainable aviation fuels. This can help
drive new energy industries and re-use refining and otherinfrastructure.

Requiredfrom today

Pursue partnerships
for SAF scale-up

Launch SAF partnership and cooperative projects bringing
together local aviation industry stakeholders, energy
suppliers, research institutions and potential feedstock
suppliers.

Possibletoday

Pursue partnerships
for SAF scale-up

Engage in public-private partnerships for sustainable aviationfuel production and supply.

2020-2025

If putting in place amarket-based measure,invest a portion in SAF

As global and regional market-based measures are adopted,
Governments should invest a portion of the funds collectedin SAF and SAF R&D that accelerates the sector’s path to
reducing CO2.

Available
today

Prioritise aviation (andother hard-to-abate
sectors) as a userof alternative fuelSet priorities for the sustainable energy mix in your country toensure that the right type of low carbon energy is developedfor each sector — aviation does not have alternatives at thistime, particularly for long-haul operations and so should beseen as a priority user of feedstocks for liquid fuels.

Possibletoday

Difficulty level90

Waypoint 2050

Action items and policy proposals for governments133
Action item

Description

Timeline

Prioritise aviation (andother hard-to-abate
sectors) as a user ofalternative fuelRoad transport has historically had more advantages forfeedstock use, making aviation use of these resources
uneconomical — this situation should be reversed.

Possibletoday

Explore potential for SAF
development at a nationalor regional level

Undertake local supply opportunity audits to investigate
where potential SAF could be developed.

2020-2025

Support innovation into
new energy alternatives

Support sustainable aviation fuel R&D and demonstration
plants with academic and research organisations across therange of feedstock sources.

2020-2040

Support developmentof SAF production

Attract capital to expand SAF capacity through loan guarantee
programmes for construction of SAF production facilities (derisking the early investment anxiety for new technologies).

20202035+

Support developmentof SAF industry

Direct research and development activities for local SAF
production pathways and new energy industries.

2020-2025

Support developmentof SAF industry

Commit to policy certainty, or, at a minimum, policy
timeframes that match investment timeframes.

2020-2030

Demonstrate leadership

Commitment for government travel to be undertaken on SAF,
either directly or through book-and-claim options initially.

Possibletoday

Demonstrate leadership

Adopt globally-recognised sustainability standards and work
to harmonise global standards.

2020-2025

Demonstrate leadership

Encourage user-friendly sustainable aviation fuel accounting
methods and work to harmonise global standards.

2020-2025

Provide incentives forairline use of SAF

Make SAF zero-rated under carbon taxation or other marketbased measures, if they are being developed.

2020+

Blending or production
incentives for SAF
producers or suppliers.

Ensure existing policy incentive frameworks, often designed
for ground transport, also include aviation and evaluate
higher incentives for aviation over ground transport which hasother energy alternatives.

2025+

Take a global leadershiprole in managing theaviation energy transition.

Showcase Government action at a regional and global level bychampioning SAF opportunities with other governments
and at ICAO.

2020-2030

Difficulty levelWaypoint 2050

91

Action items and areas for research institutions
Action item

Description

Timeline

Implement SAF research
programmes

Research needs to accelerate in several areas:

2020-2040

Difficulty level» Technology pathways (for example, power-to-liquid fuelopportunities)» Feedstock yields for crop feedstocks» Lifecycle improvements for all feedstock types» Completely new sources of liquid SAF» Production pathway efficiency improvements

Action items for the energy industry
Action item

Description

Timeline

Demonstrate commitment
to SAF at an early stage

Divert funding to sustainable aviation fuel production
and deployment from fossil fuel extraction and capital
expenditure

Required
today

Difficulty level

Action items for the finance community
Action item

Description

Timeline

Focus funding on SAF
opportunities worldwide

Regional and multilateral development banks can play a
proactive role in developing a SAF industry, helping to financeproduction and bring costs down. Of particular importanceto the multilateral development banks is the job creation
opportunities that exist in new energy economies, alongside
the climate upside.

Possibletoday

Difficulty level

Action items for other stakeholders
Action item

Other transport modes
should prioritise best
available energy options

Description

Other transport modes which have existing alternative
energy sources should focus efforts on shifting to sources
like electricity and hydrogen, leaving liquid alternative fuelsources for harder-to-abate sectors (such as aviation).

Timeline

20202035

Difficulty level92

Waypoint 2050

OUT-OF-SECTOR CARBON REDUCTION
MARKET MECHANISMSALTHOUGH THE CONTRIBUTION FROM TECHNOLOGY, OPERATIONS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE IMPROVEMENTS AND SUSTAINABLE AVIATION FUELWILL PROVIDE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE 2050 EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS,
THERE WILL BE A NEED TO INVEST IN OUT-OF-SECTOR CARBON REDUCTION
MEASURES TO DEAL WITH REMAINING EMISSIONS.
This section provides some background on the status of carbon
markets and potential evolutions, including considerations ofsources of offsets by 2050 that may be different from today’s.
The use of offsetting, a market-based measure or out-of-sector
carbon reductions can be used as part of the method to meetthe industry goals, depending on the availability of sustainableaviation fuels. In each of scenarios 1-3, Waypoint 2050 has
identified the need for a particular quantity of sustainableaviation fuel to meet 90% of the sector’s liquid fuel requirements,
however the remaining emissions reductions to net-zero would
need to come from some form of out-of-sector carbon reduction.
The CO2 reduction from SAF could also be fulfilled withoffsetting, depending on the cost of available offsets at the time,vs the cost differential of SAF and fossil jet fuel.
There are very few forecasts for the types of offsets that will
be available in 2050. The offset markets that exist today
through global instruments such as the United Nations Clean
Development Mechanism (CDM) are enabling funding of carbon
reduction projects across the world. This ‘low-hanging fruit’
should, in theory, have all been funded before 2050 and will nolonger be available. However, there are a number of mechanismsthat will still be available, or will likely come to maturity overthe coming decades. In this section they are broadly referred
to as ‘offsetting’, meaning they offset the remaining emissions
generated by air transport through ‘out-of-sector’ projects tocompensate for unavoidable CO2 emissions in aviation.

International carbon pricing mechanisms
under the Paris Agreement»» Article 6.2 covers cooperative approaches, where Parties
could opt to meet their NDCs by using internationallytransferred mitigation outcomes (ITMOs).
»» Article 6.4 establishes a mechanism for countries tocontribute to GHG emissions mitigation and sustainable
development. The emission reductions can be used tomeet the NDC of either the host country or
another country.
Several key questions remain, for example there is a lack ofclarity on key issues related to Article 6 and the transitionof existing CDM projects and associated methodologies.
These were due to be decided over the last several United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Conferences of the Parties (COPs), but there has been little
progress in these international negotiations and the delay of
COP26 has pushed resolution back further.
Carbon pricing policies are sometimes considered to beeffective to incentivise carbon reduction roadmaps, to foster
the entry into service of new technologies and allow thedevelopment of sustainable aviation fuels for example. Carbon
pricing mechanisms already exist for the aviation sector. This
is why the sector supports a rapid implementation of the ICAOCORSIA, the first global market-based measures that apply toan entire sector.
But it is important that a balance is struck between
incentivisation policies on one hand and the inability ofairlines to have sufficient funding to invest in more efficient
aircraft and sustainable fuels on the other.

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement provides for voluntarycooperation among countries for the implementation of NDCs
to allow for higher climate ambition, promote sustainable
development, and promote environmental integrity:
Scenario

Description

2050 out-of-sector emissions reductions

M0

Out-of-sector market-based measures are used as a
substantial contribution to aviation’s decarbonisation in 2050

970-1,500 Mt

M1

Out-of-sector market-based measures are used to remove
residual CO2 emissions.

135 MtM2

Out-of-sector market-based measures are used to remove
residual CO2 emissions.

155 MtM3

Out-of-sector market-based measures are used to remove
residual CO2 emissions.

115 MtWaypoint 2050

Current sources of offsets
Over the last few years an array of CO2 products has become
available. Carbon credit products are also evolving anddeveloping especially under the Paris Agreement. An
important distinction is between projects in the voluntary(or nonregulated) market, which generate offsets called VERs
(Verified — or Voluntary — Emission Reductions), and projects
in the Kyoto (or regulated) market, which generate offsets
called CERs (Certified Emission Reductions). A key differenceis that VERs rely on third party verification while CERs
are formally certified under Kyoto rules. Different quality
standards can apply to VERs and CERs.
Current sources of offsets or type of projects cover a wide
range of sources;»» Energy efficiency including offsets from more efficient
stoves, more efficient power generation, light bulb
replacement, use of ‘waste’ energy in co-generation.
»» Renewable energy such as wind turbines,
hydroelectricity and solar, thermal andphotovoltaic systems.
»» LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry),
including avoided deforestation, reforestation of former
forest areas, afforestation of new areas, other types ofland use projects.
»» Industrial greenhouse gas offsets, including reductionof emissions and/or destruction of hydrofluorocarbon,
compounds (HFCs), reduction of emissions and/or
destruction of nitrous oxide (N2O),»» Methane (CH4) capture and use in energy generation e.g.,
from landfills, from mines and from anaerobic digestionof, for example, livestock wastes.

ICAO’s CORSIAIn 2016, governments meeting at ICAO agreed to establish theworld’s first climate pricing mechanism for any single global
sector. The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme forInternational Aviation (CORSIA) will offset about 80% of thegrowth in international aviation CO2 emissions from the endof 2020. CORSIA is intended to offset the growth in emissions
from international aviation, which is not covered under theParis Agreement. Like the Paris Agreement, CORSIA is initiallya voluntary scheme, with States deciding if their country will
be included. In later years, it is mandatory for all but small anddeveloping countries.
CORSIA does not cover domestic air transport services, as theseare subject to national action under the ‘nationally determined
contributions’ outlined in the Paris Agreement. However, if
countries are wishing to implement market-based measures fordomestic aviation, the industry strongly urges them to use the
CORSIA template to design their systems.
In order to address the concerns of developing States and to
take into account the special circumstances and respective
capabilities of States, CORSIA will be implemented in phases,
illustrated above. From 2021 until 2026, only flights between
volunteering states will be subject to offsetting requirements.
From 2027, all flights will be subject to offsetting, with the
exception of flights to/from Least Developed Countries (LDCs),
Small Island Developing States (SIDS), Landlocked Developing
Countries (LLDCs) and small aviation markets, unless they
volunteer to participate.
The ICAO process also includes a robust mechanism to ensure
the offsets used in CORSIA bring about real reductions in CO2emissions. In the past, a number of questionable offset schemes
have not delivered on the emissions reductions they promised.
The emissions units that can be used by airlines under CORSIA
will be decided by a group of government-appointed technicalexperts based on several criteria that have been approved by the
ICAO Council. The criteria for emissions unit integrity include:»» Are additional»» Are based on a realistic and credible baseline»» Are quantified, monitored, reported and verified»» Have a clear and transparent chain of custody

Simplified map showing countries where carbon pricing mechanisms have been introduced135
In some of these States, multiple instruments have been (or are scheduled to be) implemented – on a regional level or city level.
These include predominantly taxes and emissions trading schemes. In addition, for international aviation, CORSIA has been
implemented at a global level.

CARBON PRICING MECHANISM
IN PLACE, OR SCHEDULE(POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE
INSTRUMENTS)
CARBON PRICING MECHANISM
UNDER CONSIDERATION

93

94

Waypoint 2050»» Represent permanent emissions reductions»» Assess and mitigate against potential increase inemissions elsewhere»» Are only counted once towards a mitigation obligation»» Do no net harm
Criteria for emissions unit programme design:»» Clear methodologies and protocols and theirdevelopment process»» Scope considerations»» Offset credit issuance and retirement procedures»» Identification and tracking»» Legal nature and transfer of units»» Programme governance»» Transparency and public participation provisions»» Safeguards system»» Sustainable development criteria»» Avoidance of double counting, issuance and claiming
Currently, CORSIA is expected to last until around 2035, withregular reviews of the performance of the system during
this lifespan. As emissions reduction opportunities are
deployed across the sector to bring down emissions, they may
be complemented by an appropriate global market-based
measure from 2035 forward.

Existing carbon pricing mechanisms at aregional, national and sub-national level
A total of 64 carbon pricing initiatives (taxes andemissions trading schemes being the most common) havebeen implemented with a further three scheduled for
implementation around the world, covering 48 national
jurisdictions and 32 subnational jurisdictions. These initiatives
cover 21.5% of global GHG emissions. They collectively raised$53 billion in carbon pricing revenues in 2020134.Offsetting’s
evolution
While the projects described in the section above cover a wide
range of current sources, the sources of offsets could change
significantly in the future. Historically, offsets were based on
avoidance of emissions compared to a ‘business as usual’ orbaseline scenario. In the future and given the emissions levels
required to meet climate change mitigation goals or ambitions,sources of offsets would need to change dramatically. The Task
Force on Scaling Voluntary Carbon Markets aims to make thecarbon market more efficient and robust to meet future global
demand as many companies around the world look to takeearly climate action.
This section describes a non-exhaustive range of potential
technologies that could form the basis for offsets in the 2040+
time frame (if needed).
It is worth noting that in the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change SR15 Report on meeting the 1.5°C challenge,
three of the four pathways include CCS and bioenergy withCCS (BECCS) as necessary mitigation technologies. The Paris
Agreement calls for a balance between anthropogenic sources
and removals by natural carbon sinks. Put another way, inorder to meet the 1.5°C stretch goal of the Paris Agreement,
there will need to be some type of carbon sink if CO2 emissions
across the economy continue to grow until around 2030. Thesecan be through a range of measures that will still be available in
2050 to offset emissions that have not been able to be reduced.

2050 offsets: direct air carbon captureand sequestration
Direct air capture (DAC) is a nascent technique in which
CO2 (and potentially other greenhouse gases) are removed
directly from the atmosphere. The current technique uses
large fans that move ambient air through a filter, using achemical adsorbent to produce a pure CO2 stream that could
be stored or re-used. Significantly, unlike traditional carbon
capture technologies, it removes CO2 from the atmosphere,
rather than being attached to a power station or other sourceof emissions. This means it would remove emissions fromdiverse sources, including air travel.
A DAC facility developed by Climeworks136 can reduce CO2
by 90% from the CO2 captured in the machine. To have any
significant effect on global CO2 concentrations, DAC would
need to be rolled out on a vast scale – perhaps up to 30,000
large DACs facilities would capture some 30Gt of CO2 peryear (or up to 30 million small scale plants by the end of the
century)137. This scale-up would require:»» significant renewable energy resources to power
the plants;»» a production and then disposal system for the chemicals
used in the process;»» storage sites for the CO2 removed from the atmosphere(either in geological formations such as empty oil
reserve voids where it turns into stone through naturalprocesses); or»» re-use as a product — as a feedstock for new fuels (see the
SAF section on power-to-liquid), or as part of enhanced
oil recovery in the fossil fuel industry.
Currently, there is one demonstration facility near Zurichowned by Climeworks, and another by the same company inIceland. Carbon Engineering138 also operates a pilot plant in
British Columbia. In addition, there are several companies
that have developed small-scale capture units, with numerous
research projects also underway.
The costs of removing CO2 from the atmosphere using
direct air capture is currently priced at around $600 per
tonne of CO2 . With improvement in technology expected todecrease this cost to $100-$200 per tonne of CO2 in 20252030 and perhaps further after that. Direct air capture,
although a nascent technology, could provide a valuable
way to reduce and perhaps even reverse current global CO2
emissions pathways, but it needs to be proved at scale if it is
to be available to hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation as anoffsetting option.
DAC, should it work at scale and be able to be deployed acrossthe world, could be an important part of the global effort to
tackle climate change.

2050 offsets: forestry and natural
climate solutions
It is estimated some 15-20% of the world’s greenhouse gas
emissions come from deforestation – often undertaken foreconomic development reasons (such as logging or farming).
The move to use forestry as a source of carbon credits – ineffect paying the opportunity cost for nations or communities
which would otherwise profit accrue economic benefits
from the deforestation – has been investigated for many
years and is under discussions at the UN as part of the Paris
Agreement. Already, forestry projects have made up 42%

Waypoint 2050

of all credits issued in the last five years139 and the price offorestry credits has been rising in the last year, but there arechallenges: ensuring that the forestry protection is permanentand looking after indigenous communities rights are just twoareas that must be considered. The accounting framework
for the international transfer of credits must also be decided
on. But protecting existing tropical and other forests is a
key component of international efforts to prevent climatechange and, if developed with consideration, this could be asignificant source of carbon credits in the coming years.
Moreover, there is increasing pursuit of other natural (ornature-based) climate solutions which could not only
prevent CO2 emissions, but actually remove CO2 from theatmosphere. Reforestation (planting trees) is tried and tested– although must also come with safeguards to ensure thattrees planted do grow to maturity and this process also takes
a long time. Rehabilitation of peatlands, for example, which
cover 3% of the earth’s surface, could provide significant
carbon sinks. Around 15% of the world’s peatland has been
drained, a process which emits some 1.3 Gt of CO2 per year140.
By rehabilitating these natural carbon sinks, CO2 in theatmosphere will also be reduced.
At this stage, the scale of the 2050 potential from thesenatural climate solutions is unknown, although estimatessuggest up to 11.3 billion tonnes of carbon could be reduced
annually through such measures141.

2050 offsets: carbon capture and storage
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technology that cancapture up to 90% of the CO2 emissions produced from theuse of fossil fuels in electricity generation and industrial
processes, preventing the carbon dioxide from entering theatmosphere. Furthermore, the use of CCS with renewablebiomass is one of the few carbon abatement technologies thatcan be used in a 'carbon-negative' mode — actually taking
carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.
The CCS chain consists of three parts:»» capturing the carbon dioxide,»» transporting the carbon dioxide, and»» securely storing the carbon dioxide emissions,
underground in depleted oil and gas fields or deep saline
aquifer formations.
Despite CCS being a technology available for many years,
there has not so far been widespread use of the method andthere is scepticism from some policy groups as to its ability to
be a major part of the world’s climate response. One of the key
arguments against the use of CCS technology is that it could
facilitate a prolonged use of fossil energy, rather than pushinginvestment towards low carbon and renewable energy.

95

However, alongside mitigation of emissions, it is now being
seen as a core part of any economy-wide strategy to tackle
emissions by the IPCC, IEA, UK Committee on Climate Change
and the Energy Transition Commission.
CCS can significantly reduce emissions in energy-intensive
industries including cement, petrochemicals and steel anda number of countries in Europe are looking at ways toensure CCS is included in next generation bioenergy clusters
to reduce lifecycle emissions from those facilities. These
include facilities in Norway, the Netherlands and the UK.
Worldwide, plans for 30 facilities have been announced since2017, doubling to 40 million tonnes the amount of carbon
sequestered142.
There is widespread confidence that a next generation ofplants would not have a high cost (around $45/t of CO2)143.
In the long term, and with anticipated technology
advancements and associated reduction in costs for removalof CO2 , there are opportunities for the CCS sector to issue CO2
reduction certificates, or carbon credits, that could be freely
traded in the carbon market. The inclusion of CCS certificatesin the carbon market could potentially complement the choiceof available emissions reductions used by the airline sector
as part of their mandatory offset requirements, i.e. under
CORSIA, provided all of the environmental integrity criteria
will be met. The availability of carbon credits linked to CCS
could represent a viable alternative and act as an additionalsource to ensure a balanced supply of carbon credits, inparticular when different industry sectors start to compete forthe same type of carbon credits, resulting in scarcity and an
expected sharp increase in the price of carbon credits.

Competition for opportunities
Whilst these are valuable opportunities for reduction in CO2emissions from sectors that have not been able to eliminate
emissions entirely, there will likely be a large amount ofresidual CO2 emissions still being generated across the
economy in 2050, despite best efforts to reduce these. In thatcase, there could be competition to secure these remaining
offset opportunities.
The first order of action should be to reduce emissions
from in-sector opportunities (including, in aviation’s case,the use of alternative fuels), but a realistic assessment oflikely CO2 reduction actions by all sectors of the economy(based on UNFCCC nationally determined contributions
by governments, and action by international aviation andshipping) will need to be compared with advances in theoffsets mentioned above to determine the best allocation of
offset use by sector.

96

Waypoint 2050

PURSUING OUT-OF-SECTOR CARBON REDUCTIONS
Whilst the aviation industry’s primary focus needs to be on how it can reduce CO 2 emissions within the sector, there may
remain some need for offsets or out-of-sector carbon reductions to be accessible out to 2050 and perhaps a little beyond.
There are some key building blocks to ensure these are available to aviation and other hard-to-abate sectors, as they areneeded to help with overarching climate objectives.

Action items for the aviation sector
Action item

Description

Timeline

Investigate
partnership
opportunities
with future offset
providersAirlines: there will be a restricted market for nextgeneration offsets in the 2035+ timeframe, with many
sectors looking to forestry, natural carbon sinks andcarbon capture opportunities. Airlines should instigate
partnerships with these providers at an early stage,
helping to accelerate early action in these areas and lock-in
long-term offset agreements.

2020-2050+

Difficulty level

Action items and policy proposals for governments
Action item

Description

Timeline

Support CORSIA

Volunteer for the early stages of CORSIA (as of
publication, 106 countries have done so) and take partin capacity building to ensure CORSIA is successful. For
those States exempted from the mandatory phase from2027, commit to participation in CORSIA anyway.

2020-2035

Ensure CORSIA
continues to
evolveWork with other States at ICAO to ensure CORSIA
meets the intended environmental ambition andremains fit for purpose. Ensure CORSIA’s standards
are maintained and new offset opportunities areevaluated (based on rigorous sustainability criteria) on
a regular basis.

2020-2035

Set a long-term
CO2 goal

Through ICAO, set a long-term CO2 goal forinternational aviation at the 2022 ICAO Assemblycompatible with the most recent scientific evidence
from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

2020-2022

Do not duplicate
marketmechanisms,base any domestic
measures on
CORSIA principles

CORSIA should be the single robust market
mechanism on international flights, to avoid
duplication and danger of market distortions. If Stateswish to deploy market-based measures on domestic
flights for climate reasons, the industry encourages
the use of the CORSIA framework to ensure ease ofcompliance and a reduction in duplication of systems
and monitoring.

If putting in placea market-based
measure, invest
in in-sector CO2
reductions

As global and regional market-based measures are
adopted, Governments should invest a portion of thefunds collected in SAF, SAF R&D and technology R&D(among other opportunities) that accelerate the sector’s
path to reducing CO2.

Available today

Difficulty levelWaypoint 2050

Action item

Description

Timeline

Work with fellow
governments toconclude UNFCCC
Article 6 discussions

Whilst CORSIA is a standalone scheme, it will rely on
carbon credits traded across international jurisdictions.
The establishment of global standards for suchtransactions is vital and Article 6 of the Paris Agreement
needs to be agreed for this to really thrive.

2020

Promote developmentof carbon capture
opportunities

Carbon capture — particularly direct air capture — is avital component of long-term carbon removal and is a
key component for allowing the world to meet the Paris
Agreement goals.

2020-2050

Develop robust forestry
accounting standards
with other States andpromote forestry offset
development

Cooperation is needed between
private sector and government-led forestry
programmes, e.g. jurisdictional-level approaches andnested REDD+ projects, within national or subnational
accounting systems.

2020-2025

Difficulty level

Action items and areas for research institutions
Action item

Accelerate
development of carbon
capture and direct air
capture efficiency

Description

Efficiency of the operation and electricity use of direct
air capture systems must evolve to bring the cost of
this technology down.

Timeline

Difficulty level2020-2050

Action items for the finance community
Action item

Description

Timeline

Pursue carbon
removal opportunities

Support the development of direct air capture,
carbon capture and storage and natural climate
solutions as a priority and make credits available tosectors such as aviation.

2020-2050+

Difficulty level

Action items for other stakeholders
Action item

Description

Timeline

Develop additional
carbon credit products

Carbon markets: Development of carbon productsthat are tailored to airlines financial situation andneed. Explore the feasibility of derivative products,
e.g. carry-trades, futures and tailor-madecontracts.

2021-2023

Establishment of acarbon reference price

Carbon markets: the development of standardised
reference price for carbon triggering a pricing
signal backed by emissions reductions projects thatare impacted by supply and demand.

2021

Difficulty level

97

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Waypoint 2050

Waypoint 2050

METHODOLOGY,GLOSSARY AND
REFERENCES

99

100 Waypoint 2050

METHODOLOGY OF
WAYPOINT 2050 ANALYSIS
Attempting to predict the future is challenging at the bestof times, but with so many variables, the challenge becomeseven greater. In order to assess the likely forecasts for
traffic growth, technology deployment, operational andinfrastructure efficiency gains and sustainable aviation fuelramp-up, a set of working groups was established with over 70
experts from across the sector.
A literature review of existing publications and researchhelped to set a baseline for the CO2 emissions forecastingprocess used as the basis for this W2050 Project. Thisapproach is consistent with the general approaches andmethodologies from forecasts and sources that wereanalysed (ICAO’s CAEP, IEA, IATA, Boeing, Airbus and theirassociated sources).
The first step comprises economic modelling and traffic
forecasting. A global economic model is generally used
to transform fundamental attributes and trends such as
population, gross domestic product, propensity to travel into
aviation traffic generally measured in number of passengers,
revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), revenue tonne
kilometres (RTKs), available tonne kilometres (ATKs), etc.
Aviation traffic is then used as input to a fuel burn forecastingprocess that uses data of baseline fleet and operations. The
baseline fleet and operations are generally based on thereference year of the forecasts and the future evolution of the

fleet and aviation system assumes that the technology andoperations remain at the level of performance observed in
the reference year. This was augmented in July 2021 with an
update to the traffic forecasts based on the impact Covid-19
will have on traffic (included in an updated traffic forecast
from 2020-2040) and on load factor.
Subsequently, technology and operational improvements areused to develop scenarios where the performance of the fleet(e.g., newly delivered aircraft or in-production aircraft) evolveat various rates of improvement.
The effect of alternative fuels are then modelled downstream
to technology and operations scenarios. This generally
requires a range of assumptions, including; (1) jet fuelreplacement rate and (2) lifecycle emissions of alternative fuels.
Finally, the inclusion of emissions reductions from othersectors through market-based measures were consideredand evaluated.
The steps described above constitute the CO2 emissions
forecasting process. As described in the report, some W2050
SAF scenarios were developed using a ‘backcasting’ approach
where the modelling assumptions are adjusted such that theresulting emissions forecast meet 90% of the fuel replacementin 2050.

Backcasting
Economicmodel

Baseline
fleet &
operations

Economicmodelling &traffic
forecasting* Fuel burn forecast generally converted into combustion
CO2 emissions (e.g., using net 3.16 kg CO2 / Kg Fuel).

Modeling ofeffects ofalternative
fuels

Modeling ofeffects oftechnology &operations

Baseline fleet
fuel burn*forecasting
ATK
RTK

Alternative
fuelsTechnology &operations
improvements

Fuel
burn
CO 2

CO 2

Goal

Fuel
burn
CO 2

Addition ofemissions
reductions fromother sectors

Market based
measures

CO 2

Waypoint 2050 101

1/ Status quo» Today's fleet» World fleet

2/ Aircraft

3/ Growthscenarios» Traffic Shares» Traffic growthclassifications» Retirement curves

4/ Prediction»N ext years
deliveries» Sub fleets
10-50
51-100101-200
201-300
301-400» Market shares

ASCEND
Fleet Data

W2050
traffic forecast

5/ Aircaft specificperformance data

6/ New aircraft/technology
timelines

Case specificInformation

Model output» Eurocontrol» BADA

Fleet evolution methodology and fuelburn modelling
A methodology developed by the German Aerospace Centre(DLR)144 is used to model the introduction of novel aircraft
configurations into the world fleet and to assess their impacts
on global CO2 emissions of air transport. It consists of two
separate modules:»»The sum of aircraft needed for replacement and growthconstitutes the next year's aircraft demand = new aircraft
deliveries. The original aircraft that are forecasted toremain active (i.e. are not retired) plus the new aircraft
deliveries (including yet unfixed make and model)
make up the new world fleet. This process of simulating
yearly fleet changes is repeated until the final year of theforecast period is reached.

»»Evolution of the world fleet of commercial passenger
aircraft (steps 1-4).
Forecast of the evolution of fuel and CO2 efficiency basedon fuel consumption and performance information of eachaircraft model, and global CO2 emissions and traffic calculatedby aggregating the single aircraft estimates (steps 5-6).

The number of seats is individual for each aircraft and istaken from the Cirium Fleets Analyzer database. New aircraft
configurations enter the world fleet through projected
deliveries of ‘fixed demand’ (order backlog) and ‘unfixeddemand’ (future generic aircraft to satisfy the projecteddemand, but that are not ordered yet).

The fleet forecast used here is a bottom‐up forecast based on
year-to-year dynamics.

It is not aimed to detail the realisation of unfixed demandby forecasting market shares for specific makes and models.
Instead, the demand in each seat category is represented
by a ‘generic aircraft’. This generic aircraft stands for the
average delivered aircraft of a specific forecast year. A higher
share of more efficient aircraft is represented by a gradually
improving fuel efficiency of the generic aircraft over theyears. This modelling method thus accounts for the combined
impact of a fleet of multiple aircraft models. All assumptions
regarding the impact of new aircraft projects, market shares,
ramp-up times and technology on aircraft fuel efficiency ina specific size category can be reflected by adjusting a single
parameter: the technology factor (fuel function multiplier) of
the generic aircraft in the respective size category.

»»The first step is to identify today's fleet of aircraft fromthe Cirium Fleets Analyzer»»From the detailed information provided by Cirium
Fleets Analyzer, the following year's retirements are thenprojected for each make and model in the world fleet,based on the specific age of each active aircraft. The
retirement process is driven by retirement curves basedon ICAO-CAEP/9 version. These curves are estimatedthrough a survival analysis from historical data.
»»The next step is estimating the number of
additional aircraft needed to satisfy the selectedtraffic growth scenario.

102 Waypoint 2050

Assumptions on aircraft types (i.e., seatcategory) available for growth
and replacement
While the technology scenarios were developed for large
aircraft categories i.e., with seats above 500, the absence ofa proposed replacement for the A380 (i.e., A380neo) or any
other market announcement required the consideration of
how to address potential demand for such aircraft types. The
default (base case) analyses presented in the report assume
the absence of such future aircraft where traffic for 501+ seatcategories was shifted i.e., serviced by the 401-500
seat category.
While assumptions on particular products — especially given
the long time frame of forecasting required by the 2050
Waypoint project — were not made, a sensitivity analysis
was conducted between the default (base case) scenario
described above and a scenario where hypothetical aircraft
could fulfill traffic in the 501+ seat category. It was observedthat this assumption has very little impact on the overall
CO2 emissions trajectory, where differences between bothscenarios are on the order of 0.2% in 2050.

Developing new energies pathways:hydrogen and electricity
To assess the potential demand, requirements, and costs(investments) associated with electric and hydrogen powered
aviation, a working group of industry experts was formed.
The group collected and conducted a review of publicly
available documents and reports on hydrogen and electricity
as energy sources for direct use by global aviation in the
coming decades. Using the first edition of the Waypoint
2050 scenarios and analyses as a starting point, potential
aggregate demand for electricity and hydrogen was
estimated for the T4 and T5 scenarios. Scenarios werecomplemented with additional information available since
the publication of the first edition of the Waypoint 2050
study, including technical assessments and studies frommembers of the Working Group. Finally, the group conducteda first order assessment of the potential requirements andcosts associated with hydrogen and electricity associatedwith relevant W2050 scenarios.

Sustainable aviation fuel deployment
A host of factors drive the decisions made in the market
today, including national and international regulations,
technologies, local feedstock availabilities, the availabilityof infrastructure to re-use and the available demand. The
analysis undertaken as part of the Waypoint 2050 process
by ICF (and outlined in full in the report Fuelling Net Zero)assumes that the complex reality can be distilled into two
key factors that drive the macro trends: The cost of the fuel,and limitations on the availability of feedstocks.
The cost of SAF is simplified to the feedstock cost, plus the
allocated facility cost, minus the environmental value.
Extensive analysis has been conducted to estimate the costfor each feedstock, and a detailed model has been built
to calculate the infrastructure costs. Regulation drives
the market today, and this model simplifies the complex
patchwork of policies, mandates, and incentives to a single
environmental value for the carbon reduction delivered by
the SAF, built from an analysis from the current and potential

carbon reduction for each pathway and forecasts for thevalue of carbon reductions over the next three decades.
Each region has a different set of feedstocks available,
imposing a varied set of constraints to the development of thelocal SAF industry. This report investigates these limitations
to show the opportunity for the different feedstocks andtechnologies in each region.
SAF demand is an input to this method. The required volume
is based on analysis developed by the extensive Waypoint
2050 process.
The analysis estimates the most economic use of feedstocks
and technologies in each region to achieve this demand,with allowance made for both in-year costs, and investments
in more expensive current production methods to mature
the technologies for future widespread deployment. The
analysis calculates the annual combined feedstocks andfacility costs, accounts for the carbon value and then uses
a merit ranking approach to distribute the incremental
capacity. This process is repeated for each year of theanalysis, with a variety of mechanisms and adjustments to
help the model better reflect reality.

Waypoint 2050 103

GLOSSARY
Terms
Net-zero emissions
Also known as climate neutrality (although the terms havedifferent technical connotations), net zero emissions is reducing
emissions to as close as possible to nothing, with the remaining
emissions compensated for through offsets or technologies suchas carbon capture to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
Offsets
In many parts of this report, ‘offsets’ is used as shorthand for out-ofsector carbon removal: the process to pay for removal of CO2 fromthe atmosphere (or avoid CO2 emissions) through traded carbon
credits. Currently, these include traditional carbon offsets such as
renewable energy schemes, but in the future these sources should
be exhausted and sectors will rely on afforestation, natural carbon
sinks and technologies such as carbon capture and direct air
capture to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

Abbreviations
2DS
Two degree scenario (of the International Energy Agency)
ACI
Airports Council International
ATAG
Air Transport Action GroupATK
Available tonne kilometres: a measure of aviation’s total
passenger and cargo capacity, calculated as capacity intonnes x kilometres flownATM
Air traffic management
ASTM International
The global agency which manages the certification process
for fuels, including sustainable aviation fuelB2DS
Beyond two degree scenario (of the International Energy Agency)
BECCS
Bio-energy with carbon capture and sequestration
BWB
Blended wing body
CAEP
Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection
CAGR
Compound annual growth rate
CANSO
Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation
CCS
Carbon capture and sequestration
CNG
Carbon-neutral growth: where activities of an industry (traffic,
in aviation’s case) continues to grow, but the CO2 emissions are
reduced or compensated for to stabilise at a given level.
CORSIA
Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International
Aviation
ETP
Energy technology perspectives (of the International
Energy Agency)

ERF
Emissions reduction factor: the lifecycle CO2 benefit of sustainableaviation fuel, once CO2 reduced through the production or growthof the feedshock, and production CO2 has been accounted for.
DACCS
Direct air capture and carbon sequestration
IATA
International Air Transport Association
ICAO
International Civil Aviation Organization
ICCAIA
International Coordinating Council of Aerospace
Industries Associations
IEA
International Energy Agency
LCFS
California’s Low Carbon Fuels Standard
O&I
Operations and infrastructure
PtW
Pump to Wake
RPK
Revenue passenger kilometres: a metric which multiplies
each passenger carried one kilometre. This is the metric usedthroughout this report to identify traffic trends
RED II
European Union’s second Renewable Energy Directive
RTK
Revenue tonne kilometres: a metric tonne of revenue load —passengers and cargo — carried one kilometre
RTS
Reference technology scenario (of the International
Energy Agency)
SAF
Sustainable aviation fuel
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WtW
Well to wake

Units
Gt
Gigatonne (1 billion tonnes)
Mt
Megatonne (1 million tonnes)
TWh
Terrawatt hour (unit of energy equal to outputting one trillion
watts for one hour)
MWhMegawatt hour (unit of energy equal to outputting one million
watts for one hour)MW
A million watts
EJ
Exajoule (unit is used in discussing energy budgets. The global
primary energy production in 2019 was 581 EJ)

104 Waypoint 2050

REFERENCES
Analysis from IATA Economics.

36

The world’s aircraft and engine manufacturers spend an average $15
billion per annum on efficiency-related research and development.

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2019-2018,www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/global-market-forecast.html

123

ATAG Fact Sheet #3: tracking aviation fuel efficiency, January 2020.

The Airbus A220 (formerly Bombardier CSeries), A350, A330neo,
A320neo family; ATR 72-600; Boeing 787 family, 747-8; 777-X and 737MAX;
Embraer E2; and Sukhoi Superjet.

4

5
IATA 73rd AGM Resolution Resolution on the Commercial Deployment of
Sustainable Alternative Fuel for Aviation https://bit.ly/2FDdXm9
6
ATAG analysis, based on annual passenger data from the International
Civil Aviation Organization (and its predecessors) for 1929 – 1990,
International Air Transport Association for 1990-2020 forecast. Estimationfor 1914 – 1929.

83.1% of CO2 from aviation is from flights over 1,000 kilometres in lengthand 57.5% from flights over 2,000 kilometres. Flights under 500 kilometres(those most likely to be replaced with rail services) generate some 4% of
aviation CO2 worldwide. 2018 figures, Diio Mi Database.
7

8

ATAG Beginner’s Guide to Aviation Efficiency

9

IATA Economics data, included in ATAG Fact Sheet #3

Data for other modes from European Commission. Aviation data from theEuropean Aviation Environment Report (EASA, Eurocontrol and European
Environment Agency)
10

ATAG analysis in April 2020. The ten largest aircraft lessors (AerCap,
GECAS, BBAM, Avolon, SMBC, ICBC Leasing, Air Lease, BOC Aviation, DAE
Capital and Aviation Capital Group) had a combined fleet of 6,863 aircraftat an estimated value of $220.8 billion. Based on disclosures on their own
websites.

11

12

IATA Economics analysis, included in ATAG Fact Sheet #3

It is reported that Boeing invested around $30 billion in the 787
Dreamliner aircraft programme (Seattle Times, 24 September 2011) andthe Airbus A350 cost around $15 billion (Reuters quoting Airbus CEO, 16
June 2009)
13

14

IATA Economics Airline Industry Economic Performance December 2019

ACI World Annual Traffic Forecasts 2019-2040, https://bit.ly/2E2dKZh

37

38
Boeing Commercial Market Outlook 2019-2038,
www.boeing.com/commercial/market/commercial-market-outlook/
39
IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2017,www.iea.org/topics/energy-technology-perspectives
40
41

Waypoint 2050

World Bank data, retrieved May 2020: data.worldbank.org

42

World Bank data, retrieved May 2020: data.worldbank.org

43

IATA Economics using UK Civil Aviation Authority data, 201244
United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA)World Population Ageing 2019 https://bit.ly/3bWZIEP

Airlines for America analysis. The 1941 ticket price of BOS-LAX return
was $4,695 (in 2017 dollars), with 12 stops and a total flight time of 15 hours,
15 minutes. In 2017, a fare was $473, with a non-stop flight time of 6 hours,
25 minutes.

45

46

IATA Economics / Tourism Economics 20-year forecast

47

ICAO, IATA Statistics and IATA Economics data

48
Intervistas, Transforming Intra-African Air Connectivity, 2014:
https://bit.ly/3CJnuA649

IEA Energy Technology Perspective 20172018 numbers, European Union DG Competition report State Aid
Scorecard 2019 https://bit.ly/2E4Tl5O. Rail state aid tends to be evenly
split between pension and public service obligation route aid, andinfrastructure aid. Covid-19 assistance packages will change the metrics ofthis for a few years.

50

2017 daytime estimates cited in European Environment Agency report
Environment Noise in Europe 2020. Includes urban and rural areas in the 33
European Economic Area countries. Number of people exposed to Lden≥
55 dB from road traffic (112.8 million), rail traffic (21.6 million), air traffic(4.2 million) and industry (0.8 million). https://bit.ly/2Dv8LQ j

51

15

Lee et al, The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate
forcing for 2000 to 2018, September 2020 https://bit.ly/3mns5AH

52
McKinsey research for Clean Skies for Tomorrow project, based on datain the DiioMi Database

CleanSky 2 Hydrogen-powered Aviation study, May 2020
https://bit.ly/3hxcawf

53
IATA Economics analysis of flights under 1,000km. Global bi-directional
total in 2019: 20.4 million. China: 2 million. Japan: 832,000. Western
Europe: 4.4 million.

16

17
Flightradar24 statistics: seven-day rolling average of commercial flights
being tracked on 7 March was 104,000, by 18 April that had dropped to
28,000. Commercial flights across the month of April 2020 averaged
29,439 a day compared to 111,799 a day in April 2019.
www.flightradar24.com

IATA press release After April Passenger Demand Trough, First Signals of
Uptick, 3 June 2020

18

19

ATAG analysis

20
21

IATA Economics with BlueSky analysis

Cirium Fleet Analyzer data

A combination of backlogs 2020-2025 from Cirium Fleet Dashboard, as
cited in the ATAG Fact Sheet #3 of January 2020.

222050 employment and GDP estimations are extrapolated using the
Waypoint 2050 central forecast for traffic and using research completed
by Oxford Economics as part of the Air Transport Action Group Aviation:
Benefits Beyond Borders report, September 2020.

23

24
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on 1.5C, 2018https://bit.ly/3lIbeca
32

Waypoint 2050

33

Waypoint 2050

ICAO CO2 Emissions Trends and traffic forecasts, CAEP/10 and Assembly
39 version from October 2016 and the CAEP/11 and Assembly 40 version
from October 2019.

54
Survey completed by True Intelligence for IATA in June 2021, withpassengers in 12 markets. Results were fairly consistent and shown here are
the average figures across Australia, Canada, the United States, Germany,
France, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, India, Japanand Mexico.
55

IATA Technology Roadmap 2018 https://bit.ly/2FuKye5

Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt / the German Aerospace
Center (DLR): www.dlr.de
56

57

Waypoint 2050 analysis

58

Roland Burger Electric Aircraft Database, July 2020

59

Destination 2050, February 2021: www.destination2050.eu

Sliwinski, J., Gardi, A., Marino, M., & Sabatini, R., Hybrid electric
propulsion integration in unmanned aircraft, 2017
60

International Energy Agency Sustainable Development Scenario, part of
the World Energy Model https://bit.ly/3CrqdOx

61

62
International Energy Agency Net Zero by 2050, a Roadmap for the Global
Energy Sector, May 2021: www.iea.org/reports/net-zero-by-2050

International Renewable Energy Association (IRENA) World Energy
Transitions Outlook: 1.5C Pathway, June 2021 https://bit.ly/3lKNvbI

63

IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor, 2021

34

64

35
IATA Economics 20-year Passenger Forecast
www.iata.org/en/publications/store/20-year-passenger-forecast/

The Cirium Fleets Database shows 1751 aircraft in commercial service
in the 9-19 seat category as of July 2021: Cessna 208 Caravan (464), DHC-6"Twin Otter" (403), Beechcraft 1900 (337), Let L-410 (273), Britten-Norman
Islander BN-2 (97), Cessna 402 (97), Dornier 228 (80).
65Waypoint 2050 105

Nature Energy, Schäfer, Andreas W. et al., Technological, economic andenvironmental prospects of all-electric aircraft, 2018

66

CleanSky Hydrogen-powered aviation: preparing for take-off, June 2020
https://bit.ly/3tUW4Ev

69

Waypoint 2050 analysis

70

International Energy Agency Sustainable Development Scenario, part of
the World Energy Model

71

72
International Renewable Energy Association (IRENA) World Energy
Transitions Outlook: 1.5C Pathway, June 2021

International Energy Agency Net Zero by 2050, a Roadmap for the Global
Energy Sector, May 2021

73

74

Destination 2050, February 2021

75

CleanSky Hydrogen-powered aviation: preparing for take-off, June 202076
International Energy Agency Energy Technology Perspectives 2020
https://bit.ly/2Xr9yLU
77CleanSky Hydrogen-powered aviation: preparing for take-off, June 202078

CleanSky Hydrogen-powered aviation: preparing for take-off, June 2020

79

CleanSky Hydrogen-powered aviation: preparing for take-off, June 202080

CleanSky Hydrogen-powered aviation: preparing for take-off, June 202081

CleanSky Hydrogen-powered aviation: preparing for take-off, June 2020

82

Universal Hydrogen: www.hydrogen.aero

83

CleanSky Hydrogen-powered aviation: preparing for take-off, June 2020

US Department of Energy, Energy requirements for hydrogen gas
compression and liquefaction as related to vehicle storage needs, October
2009 https://bit.ly/3Aq0cyE
84

US Department of Energy, Energy requirements for hydrogen gas
compression and liquefaction as related to vehicle storage needs, October
2009
85

Norwegian Civil Aviation Authority and Avinor report for the Norwegian
Ministry of Transport Proposed programme for the introduction ofelectrified aircraft in commercial aviation, March 2020
https://bit.ly/3mnTanq
86

88

Waypoint 2050 analysis.

89

Historical data from IATA Economics.

Based on 2.2 million departures from 17 A-CDM compliant airports.
Reduced fuel burn by 34,400 tonnes (a 7.7% reduction). Eurocontrol A-CDM
Impact Assessment report, 2016 https://bit.ly/3ixOusQ

90

91
In Canada, the Bagotville Air Force Base in Quebec is located under thebusy inbound and outbound flow to and from the central US to the North
Atlantic. Traditionally, a large section of military airspace was closed
even when not in use. In 2012 an agreement for flexible use of the airspaceenabled the military to reserve it by NOTAM when they required it butotherwise freed it for civil aircraft. Not diverting around the airspace
saved 6 minutes and an average of $412 in fuel per flight, with an annual
reduction of over 5,000 tonnes of CO2 .

The number of aircraft that an airport or an ANSP are able to safely
manage, within a predefined time and area / airport, is described as
capacity. In order to accommodate capacity limitations, aircraft may berequired to hold on the airport, accept re-routing, or hold for a specifictime prior to arrival. Whereas air traffic management has control over theavailable civil airspace capacity, the airport authority has control over an
airport’s capacity. When traffic demand approaches the available levelsof capacity, it will create congestion and reduce efficiency. However, with
mitigations such as airport collaborative decision making and better useof data throughout the system, the capacity may be maintained. Future
capacity constraints may involve the emergence and growth of otherairspace users, such as unmanned aerial vehicles.

92

93

ICAO Environment Report 2019 https://bit.ly/3mv8sab

94

IATA Environment analysis.

95
IATA Environment analysis, based on current production processes
certified by the Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials.
96

IATA Environment analysis forecasting.

IATA Environment analysis. Estimate of annual global SAF production(F1) from announced and in-production SAF plants and off-takeagreements. This does not include SAF capacity that has not yet been97

announced, is in concept stage, nor the impact of aggressive policy
support. The F1 high scenario represents a situation in which policy for
SAF is equivalent to ground transport fuels, some regions develop specificincentives for hard-to-decarbonise sectors such as aviation (EU ReFuel) as
well as the commitments from US airlines, IAG and Ryanair included: it islikely that SAF deployment will be more in this range in the middle yearsof the decade. F1 high+ represents a concerted global effort (potentiallythrough an international agreement) to decarbonise aviation with specificpolicy support for SAF – diverting feedstock and production from roadtransport to aviation – it is not a significant number of new facilities, butcurrently planned facilities being maximised for SAF production instead ofroad transport / renewable diesel.
98
Examples include Velocys Bayou https://bit.ly/3EAK1AT, Gron Fuels
https://bit.ly/3znXIzt and Shell Rotterdam https://go.shell.com/3znXKHB

A non-public assessment by the ICAO Committee on Aviation
Environment Protection Alternative Fuel Task Force sub-group wasrecently corroborated by a separate independent assessment for theWorld Economic Forum Clean Skies for Tomorrow coalition (CST). World
Economic Forum, Clean Skies for Tomorrow: Sustainable Aviation Fuels asa Pathway to Net-Zero Aviation, 2020; www.weforum.org/reports

99

ICF Analysis in Fuelling Net Zero, commissioned by ATAG for Waypoint
2050, September 2021.

107

108
Energy Transitions Commission Bioresources within a Net-Zero Emissions
Economy: Making a Sustainable Approach Possible, 2021
https://bit.ly/3hNaDF2
109
Energy Transitions Commission Bioresources within a Net-Zero Emissions
Economy: Making a Sustainable Approach Possible, 2021

World Economic Forum Clean Skies for Tomorrow: Sustainable Aviation
Fuels as a Pathway to Net-Zero Aviation, 2021 https://bit.ly/3CouNx9

110

111

International Energy Agency Net Zero by 2050, 2021

ICF Analysis in Fuelling Net Zero, commissioned by ATAG for Waypoint
2050, September 2021.

112

113
Based on analysis for the Clean Skies for Tomorrow project and analysis
for the ICAO CAEP process in 2015 (unpublished).

C. Action, "Global wind and solar capacity smashes 1,000 gigawatt
barrier," 6 Aug 2018 https://bit.ly/35AWghM

114

The USA and Brazil produce 85% of the world’s ethanol. The National
Alcohol Programme (Pró-Álcool) implemented by the Brazilian
government in the late 1970s (mandatory blending of ethanol fuel withgasoline from 10% to 22%) contributed to a substantial increase inquantities of ethanol in the first half of the 1980s. In the United States,
the introduction of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), that requires
transportation fuel sold in the United States to contain a minimum volumeof renewable fuels, and originated with the Energy Policy Act of 2005
and expanded and extended by the Energy Independence and Security
Act of 2007, have contributed to substantial increase in production of
ethanol in the late 2000s and early 2010s. Sources: 1975-1979: Earth Policy
Data Center https://bit.ly/33su4el, 1980-2018: US Energy Information
Administration: https://bit.ly/3bLiJKi

115

116
US Energy Information Administration:www.eia.gov/biofuels/biodiesel/production
117

IEA https://bit.ly/32xSbZX

118

IEA: www.iea.org/fuels-and-technologies/windInternational Energy Agency Electricity Information, September 2019:low carbon sources include: biofuels and waste (2%); solar (2%); wind (4%);
geothermal, tidal, other (1%); hydro (16%); nuclear (10%). Fossil electricity
sources include natural gas (23%); oil (3%); and coal (38%).
www.iea.org/reports/electricity-information-2019
119International Energy Agency OECD gross electricity production bysource, 1974-2018 https://bit.ly/3hsA1gh and electricity from renewables
are expected to grow by 50% between 2019 and 2024 alone:
www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2019

120

121
BloombergNEF New Energy Outlook 2019: www.bloomberg.com/
graphics/2019-can-renewable-energy-power-the-world/. Low carbon
includes nuclear, but the report suggests renewables will provide 50%of the global electricity supply by 2037 and will cross the 50% mark at
different rates in these countries: Japan (2036), China (2036), UK (2025),
Germany (2022), France (2036 – although if you include nuclear, France isnearly 100% low carbon already).

IEA analysis, electricity from renewables are expected to grow by 50%
between 2019 and 2024 alone https://bit.ly/33vlqf9122

106 Waypoint 2050

125
Data from ICF Fuelling Net Zero analysis for Waypoint 2050, augmented
with analysis from ATAG / IATA Environment and IATA Economics. Jet fuelshown with a range of 2000-2020 high of $180 per barrel ($1,415 a tonne) in
July 2008 and a low of $40 per barrel ($314 a tonne) in 2016.

ICF Analysis in Fuelling Net Zero, commissioned by ATAG for Waypoint
2050, September 2021.

126

International Energy Agency Oil 2020, 2020:
www.iea.org/reports/oil-2020

127

128
International Energy Agency capital expenditure by oil and gas
companies https://bit.ly/2ZGlBDjInternational Energy Agency Energy Subsidies Database
https://bit.ly/32whYlp

129

Energy Information Administration:www.eia.gov/international/overview/world

130

131
ICF Analysis in Fuelling Net Zero, commissioned by ATAG for Waypoint
2050, September 2021.

Waypoint 2050, using data from IEA and IRENA

132

Policy suggestions include items generated by The Atlantic Council SAF
Policy in the United States, April 2020 by Fred Ghatal https://bit.ly/3iznkl9
133

134
World Bank, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2021, May 2021:
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/35620
135

World Bank, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2021, May 2021.

136

Climeworks: www.climeworks.com

Nature Communications An inter-model assessment of the role of direct air
capture in deep mitigation pathways, July 2019:www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10842-5
137

138

Carbon Engineering: www.carbonengineering.com

139

World Bank, State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2020, May 2020.

Fires in Indonesian peat swamp forests in 2015, for example, emitted
nearly 16 million tonnes of CO2 a day. This is more than the daily emissions
from the entire US economy. At the same time, peatlands are the largest
natural terrestrial carbon store. Worldwide, the remaining area of near
natural peatland (>3 million km2) contains more than 550 gigatonnesof carbon, representing 42% of all soil carbon and exceeds the carbon
stored in all other vegetation types, including the world’s forests. This
area sequesters 0.37 gigatonnes of CO2 a year. International Union for theConservation of Nature, 2020 https://bit.ly/3kkeqZy

140

141

World Resources Institute, 2017 https://bit.ly/32ylwUd

142

International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2020

Energy Strategy Reviews, An assessment of CCS costs, barriers andpotential, Sara Budinis, Samuel Krevor, Niall Mac, Dowell Nigel, Brandon
Adam Hawkes

143

144

Nolte, 2012

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Waypoint 2050 project was initiated by the Air Transport Action Group Board of
Directors in 2017 and was assisted by the following 70+ experts from across the airtransport sector, those people below helped with input to both the first and second editionsof Waypoint 2050. ATAG would like to sincerely thank them for their expertise anddedicated input.
BlueSky: Philippe Bonnefoy www.bluesky-d2d.com
ICF: Alastair Blanshard, Mike McCurdy, Jane Thompson, Angus Reid-Kay, Saloni
Chokhani
AeroSpace and Defence Industries Association of Europe: Maria Chiara Detragiache
Aerospace Industries Association: David Hyde
Airbus: Kevin Goddard, Andrew Gordon, Olivier Husse, Steven Le Moing, Sandra Sassone,
Simone Rauer, Eric Maury, Mark Galle,
Airlines for America: Nancy Young, Tim Pohle, Ira Dassa
Airports Council International: Aram Karagueuzian, David Gamper, Guillaume
Rodier, Juliana Scavuzzi, Michael Rossell, Nina Brooks, Patrick Lucas,
Rajasundaram Chidambararaman
Airports Council International Europe: Marina Bylinsky
Association of Asia-Pacific Airlines (AAPA): Desmond Yeoh
ATR: Solène Flahault, Bertrand Pabon
Boeing: Sean Newsum, Amy Bann, Dale Smith, Daniel M Allyn, David C Franson, Michael
Lakeman, Mohamed Alghailani, Monica Alcabin, Joe Ellsworth, Mark Augustyniewicz
British Airways: Andy Kershaw
CFM International: Valerie Guenon, Francis Couillard
Civil Air Navigation Services Organisation (CANSO): Coleen Hawrysko, Michelle Bishop,
Eduardo Garcia, Rafael Quezada and the CANSO Environment Working Group
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt / the German Aerospace Center (DLR):
Klaus Lütjens, Thorsten Ehlers, Christian Weder, Florian Linke
European Business Aviation Association: Bruce ParryGE Aviation: Arjan Hegeman, Jieun Kirtley, Hermann Scheugenpflug, Gurhan Andac,
Thomas Ripplinger
General Aviation Manufacturers Association: Alex Grose
Groupement des Industries Françaises Aéronautiques et Spatiales (GIFAS): Anne
Bondiou-Clergerie, Corinne Lignet
Heathrow Airport: Andrew Chen, Ben Brewer, James Rose, Matt Prescott
Inmarsat: Mary McMillan
International Air Traffic Automation Systems: Ori Shloosh
International Air Transport Association: Brian Pearce, Andrew Matters, Arnaud Vanolli,
Daniel Vaca, Jes Halim Nauckhoff, Michael Schneider, Robert Boyd, Thomas Roetger,
Viktoria Bognar, Martina Bednarikova
International Airlines Group: Jonathon Counsell, Carrie Harris, Leigh Hudson,
Samuel Gordon
McKinsey: Daniel Riefer and Clemens Kienzler (SAF feedstock and cost curve analysis)
NATS: James Deeley
Pratt & Whitney: Mary Prettyman, Michael Winter, Larry Gray
Rolls-Royce: Adam Morton, John Salmon
Safran: Benoit Guyon, Chems Chkioua, Nicolas Jeuland
Sustainable Aviation: Andy Jefferson
United Airlines: Aaron Robinson, Adrien Gonzales
Virgin Atlantic: Geoff Clark, Ross Hawley
Alejandro Block
Additional input provided for 2021 (second edition) analysis in a workshop with:
International Transport Forum, International Energy Agency, World Economic Forum,
Shell Aviation, Air BP, Energy Transitions Commission, LanzaJet, Neste and theCommercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative.

©Air Transport Action Group, 2021
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