Deep emissions reductions in the power
sector: UK scenarios for 2050
Presentation to NIES event, “Global challenges towarda low-carbon economy”
Montreal, 3 Dec 2005
Michael Grubb, Chief Economist, The Carbon Trust
Visiting Professor of Climate Change and Energy Policy, Imperial College, London, &Senior Research Associate, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge University

Imperial College
OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINEUK policy context set by UK Energy White Paper target (60%CO2 reduction by 2050), implies both much cleaner energy
and big improvements in energy efficiency (x10 C.intensity)“Clean” energy supply

Carbon intensity(MtCe/MToe)

1990 (0.219)

0.82000 (0.161)

0.7

IAG Global
Sustainability

0.6
0.5%Reduction

0.4

RCEP 2

0.3

Carbon Trust

20% (0.103)

0.2

30% (0.072)
40% (0.050)
50% (0.033)
60% (0.021)

RCEP 1

0.1
00

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Energy intensity (MToe/£Bn GDP)
Reduced energy demand

0.25

0.3

The 2003 Energy White Paper set
the UK on a path to reduce carbon
emissions by 60% by 2050
through a combination of energy
efficiency in the short term andrenewables in the long term:“[To achieve the required savings
from energy efficiency] would
need roughly a doubling of therate of energy efficiency
improvement seen in the past
thirty years”“Technology innovation will have a
key part to play in underpinningall our goals and delivering a low
carbon economy”“To deliver these outcomes ouraim will be to provide industry andinvestors with a clear and stablepolicy framework”

Note: Figures in brackets show UK carbon intensity (MtC/£Bn), Scenarios show 2050 projections
Source: RCEP 1998, DTI EP68 GDP growth forecasts, IAG “Long-term Reductions in GHG in the UK”, Feb 2002

Different countries have different supply options
A key technology for UK is likely to be offshore wind

… but this – like other largescale non-carbon powersources - is currently stalled
without stronger drivers

UK White Paper scenarios for electricity suggest that inabsence of nuclear, 60% reduction will lead renewables
to displace the dominant conventional source
80
70
60

Imports

Renewables

Nuclear50
40
30

OilGas

20
10

Coal

0801995

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

20452050

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

Year

706050
4030
20100
1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Note: Assumes no new nuclear build
Sources: DTI - IAG, DUKES, EP68

2020

2025

Year

Diversity can be quantified and is enhanced
under an increased renewables scenario
UK electricity supply mix scenarios
Diversity index
2Renewables
Scenario

1.6
1.2
0.8

Business as
Usual scenario

0.401990

2000

2010

2020

Year
Source: CT Strategic framework analysis

2030

2040

2050

Supergen scenarios have begun to assess
in far more depth the complexity and rangeof low-carbon scenarios for electricity
Local rural
network

Offshore wind

Tidal generation

Local urban
network

Onshore wind

Biomass

Interconnector

CCGT

Photovoltaicgeneration

Overhead ACtransmission

CCGT with carbon
sequestration

CHP

Overhead DC
transmission

Coal generation

FACTS

Undersea DCtransmission

Coal with carbon
sequestration

Microgrid

Underground AC
transmission

Nuclear

Energy storage

Underground DC
transmission

Wave generation

Demand-side control

Even under “business as usual” social assumptions,
60% drives a different and diverse future..

Demand540TWhWind

12-15%

PV

1%

Biomass

10-15%Marine

3-5%

CO2capture

10-20GW

Nuclear

5-10%

MicroGen

20%

Northern
IrelandNetherlands

Figure 1.3 : “Business as Usual” Scenario: Electricity Network in 2050
FranceWhilst a “Green plus” scenario requires more radical
change to system structure and more use of advanced
transmission and power control technologies
IcelandDemand390TWh

Wind

45-50%

PV

3-5%

Biomass

25%

Marine5-10%CO2capture

Only forhydrogen

Nuclear-MicroGen

20%

NorwayNorthern
IrelandFigure 1.5 : “Green plus” Scenario: Electricity Network in 2050

Netherlands

FranceDeep emissions reductions in the power
sector: UK scenarios for 2050
Book: Jamasb, Nuttall and Pollitt, CUP, Spring 2006
and www.econ.cam.ac.uk/supergenMichael Grubb, Chief Economist, The Carbon Trust
Visiting Professor of Climate Change and Energy Policy, Imperial College, London, &Senior Research Associate, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge University

Imperial College
OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY AND MEDICINE