COVID-19 CHANGED
1 HOW
GLOBAL TRADE FOREVER
TRADE RELATIONSHIPS & TARIFFS
2 HOW
ARE AFFECTING TRADE WORLDWIDE

3 DIGITALISATION ON TRADE
THE IMPACT OF

DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY

4 TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

From crisis to opportunity:what’s the future of trade?

De-globalisation a new way to trade,but will it stick?

June 2021

4

COVID-19 CHANGED
1 HOW
GLOBAL TRADE FOREVER

Regardless of where in the world
you are and where the businessis located, where you’re trading,
and whether you will see thischange or not, the principlesof trade remain the same.
Andreas Tesch

TRADE RELATIONSHIPS & TARIFFS
2 HOW
ARE AFFECTING TRADE WORLDWIDE

3 DIGITALISATION ON TRADE
THE IMPACT OF

DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY

4 TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

Audience Q&A
Any advice on minimising
the risk of trading during
the pandemic?
The basics will still apply.
So, knowing your customer,
doing proper due diligenceand having good credit
management proceduresin place. And also being
flexible.
Eric den Boogert

De-globalisation – a new way
to trade, but will it stick?
The Covid-19 pandemic is the greatest crisis of our generation.
It has impacted the way we live, the way we work andthe way we trade. In light of such huge disruptions there
has never been a more important time to reflect, take stock
and ask important questions about the way we do business.
What is happening, what is likely to happen next and what
can businesses do to navigate uncertainties? This is the driverbehind our series of webinars, From crisis to opportunity:what’s the future of trade? Identifying current trends andasking, ‘where next?’, have formed the basis of the questions
we have posed to some of the world’s leading expertson economics, geopolitics, digital technology and trade.
De-globalisation – a new way to trade, but will it stick? isthe final in our four-part series. As Andreas Tesch, Atradius
CMO, acknowledged in his introduction to the webinar,
the “event focuses on de-globalisation, and in many ways
brings all of the parts of previous webinars together”.
De-globalisation is influenced by the pandemic, traderelationships and digitalisation – the three topics discussed
in the previous webinars.
In this final event, our panellists featured the leading
economist, author and academic, Dr Linda Yueh, AssistantFinancial Director, Valbruna, Valter Viero, Director of the
Dutch trade association, evofenedex, Bart Jan Koopman,
and Eric den Boogert, Managing Director Asia, Atradius.
Our panellists’ views do not necessarily reflect the viewsof Atradius. Any observations or reflections shared during
the webinar and captured in this white paper should not
be taken as Atradius insight or advice. This webinar was
introduced by Atradius CMO, Andreas Tesch and moderated
by journalist, Daisy McAndrew.

Key themes
Globalisation vs de-globalisation
What are the key trends? Does the current
slowdown in global trade indicate de-globalisation
and, if so, is this trend likely to be permanent?
Covid-19 and cross-border trade
Are businesses changing their supply chains
and approach to production in response
to pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions?
International relations
Do issues such as cross-border trade relationships,
tariffs and trading blocs have an impact
on de-globalisation? What are the key issues?
Is Asia reshoring?
What are the current manufacturing and distribution
trends in Asia? How will these impact the region andworld trade?
The impact of Mode 5 Services
What are Mode 5 Services and how important are theyfor global trade flows, and what impact could they haveon developing markets?
What are the most important factors influencing
supply chain decisions?
Cost, customer relations, international relations,carbon footprints: many factors can influence a businessstrategy on where to make and where to sell.

3
DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

De-globalisation and the redefining of trade
Will we stop doing business overseas? Will we stop travelling?
De-globalisation can be defined as significant reduction in
the effects of global movement. This shrinking world would
likely include a drop in overseas travel, cross-border trade,the number of people studying abroad, and more. For manyof us this is a destabilising and worrying thought. The ability
to do all these things has been with us our entire lifetimes.
Will this end?
For Dr Linda Yueh, the answer is more nuanced thana simple yes or no. She explained: “Will we stop doing
business overseas? Will we stop travelling? I think theanswer to that is not entirely, but there are geopolitical,
as well as some technology reasons why we see thistrend of a slowdown of what we do across national
borders. And I think that probably better captures whatde-globalisation is.” This “slowbalisation” can be seen in
the decline of the global merchandise export-to-GDP ratio.
This trend began in 2008 and represents the first timethat globalisation has been in decline since World War
II.¹ The pandemic has also played a part and possibly
accelerated some trends. This includes supply chain
disruptions, increases in freight costs and examples
of protectionism, particularly for both vaccines and PPE(personal protective equipment including gloves and facemasks). However, the outlook is far from black and white.
One of the fastest growing areas in terms of global trade
is digital data services, resulting in an acceleration ofdigital globalisation.

Although businesses choose where and how to trade, future
global supply chains maybe partly dictated by policymakers.
As Linda explains: “I think de-globalisation is likely to stick,at least this kind of trend, unless we can make trade, not just
free, but fair. And that means having global rules and also
helping people adjust to the impact of changing trade andtechnology and that’s a very big issue for lots of countries”.

This is both a time of uncertainty, but also
opportunity. How we redefine trade is
the answer to the ‘trillion-dollar’ question.
Dr Linda Yueh

Audience Poll #1
DO YOU FEEL CORPORATIONS ARE REORGANISING
THEIR SUPPLY CHAINS BY MOVING PRODUCTION
AND / OR FINDING NEW SUPPLIERS?

87%
YES

4

13%
NO

1	Petersen Institute for International Economics: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/pandemic-adds-momentum-deglobalization-trend

DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

Our pre-event questions
Audience Q&A
What’s the connection between de-globalisationand inflation?
Inflation at the moment is driven by a release of pentup demand. So you see this pattern pretty clearly whenpeople are able to leave their homes, and to travel. You
begin to see price pressures and that’s what inflation is,which is a price increase. Traditionally, globalisation has
brought down prices because manufacturing is cheaper inemerging economies... I think going ahead it’s going to bea more complicated relationship. There won’t be a massive
sort of major economic force, there’ll be other things
like growing population, like supply chain distortions.
Dr Linda Yueh

We asked 4 questions in advance.
We wanted to find out how businesses view
the possibility of de-globalisation and whether they
are considering re-organising their supply chains.

WOULD YOU DESCRIBE YOUR BUSINESSAS (MAINLY)?

9%

13%

DISTRIBUTION

78%
MANUFACTURING / PRODUCTIONSERVICES

DO CLIMATE CHANGE LAWS AND SUSTAINABILITY
CONCERNS IMPACT THE WAY YOU TRADE?

28%

37%

NOT AT ALL

A LITTLE

29%

6%

A GREAT DEALCOMPLETELYARE YOU SEEING TRENDS TOWARDS DE-GLOBALISATIONIN YOUR INDUSTRY?

49%

51%

YES

NO

HAVE YOU ALREADY, OR ARE YOU CONSIDERING
IN THE FUTURE, ANY OF THESE OPTIONS IN TERMS
OF YOUR MANUFACTURING OR PRODUCTION?

53%
NOT APPLICABLE

24%
NO PLANS YET

13%
MULTI-SHORING (MOVING PRODUCTION TO MULTIPLE COUNTRIES)5%RESHORING (BRINGING PRODUCTION HOME)

5%
NEARSHORING (BRINGING PRODUCTION TO A NEARBY COUNTRY)

5
DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

How has Covid-19 impacted global trade?
Trade flows and trading routes
With border closures, quarantines and protectionism,
Covid-19 has caused many disruptions to global trade,including a rethink of some supply chains. However,
although this may suggest de-globalisation, the pandemic
itself is global. Likewise, some responses to its effects
including vaccine development and increased digitalisation
have also been global in nature. But what has the last
18 months been like for businesses?
The Italian manufacturer, Valbruna, is embedded withinstrategically important supply chains. The company
produces high-performance stainless steel and nickel alloybars and wires for industries such as power generation,
aerospace and automotive. We asked Valter Viero, AssistantFinancial Director of Valbruna, whether the pandemic had
disrupted trade. He said: “The trend started, at least in our
industry, before the pandemic. It started with the Trump
presidency in the US. And as soon as Trump was elected,
a lot of discussions about reshoring started.” Valter
explained the influence that geopolitics and tariffs canhave on supply chains. However, he acknowledged Covid-19
added an extra dimension and said: “Disruptions due to
Covid-19 gave us more of an operational urgency to haveshorter and more compact and resilient supply chains.”

Of all the different words that have been used,
the one I liked most is ‘nearshoring’, in the sense
that, unless a country is very big, like the US
or China, it’s generally quite difficult to think ofa self-contained supply chain within one country.
Valter Viero

6

For Valbruna, the answer lies not in reshoring (retaining
manufacturing and distribution within Italy), but withnearshoring, establishing manufacturing capabilities closer
to their market in the US. This includes the opening ofa plant in the US and a meltshop in Canada, enabling thecompany to be closer to their customers, both in terms ofphysical delivery and also in cultural understanding andexchange of information. “This move, which predated theCovid-19 event, considerably shortened our North American
supply chain. So we changed from shipping containers
through the Atlantic Ocean to a simple 400 mile roaddelivery. It’s much shorter and at much reduced costs andrisks”, he said.
DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

Business stress and insolvencies
Interestingly, the pandemic did not lead to mass insolvencies
as predicted by some observers. Atradius Managing
Director Asia, Eric den Boogert, explained: “Logically,
you would expect that there would be quite a lot of
insolvency. Of course, governments have stepped in,in an enormous way, that we haven’t seen since 2008.
And they have stepped in earlier and with more force.
So we expect that will have a huge impact. But eventhen, I think, it’s surprising actually how low thedefault levels have been for the last year and a half.”Research finds that if you were
to have a global standard andunderstanding of how you deal with
[Mode 5 Services] in traded goods,
it actually boosts trade in goods.
Dr Linda Yueh

How important are Mode 5 Services
for global trade flows?
Mode 5 Services are services that are exported as part ofa good. An example would be a smartphone. The phoneitself is the physical good and may be subject to specifictrading taxes and tariffs. However, the phone also contains
value-added embedded services in the form of creative
design and R&D. The rise of the Internet of Things is a factor
influencing a growth in Mode 5 Services. A customer buying
a smart fridge, for example, will be seeking the enhanced
services that its connection to the internet brings. Likewise,a manufacturer investing in sensor-enhanced connected
production lines.
As Linda explained: “Most things have quite a lot ofvalue-added from the R&D, from inputs which are not justcaptured by the physical stuff. So, this is an area whichis growing quickly, and this is where technology [design]
begins to look physical. And the reason this is so importantto understand for trade, is because if you were to deliver,credit insurance for instance, across national borders,
that’s not subject to a tariff. However, when it’s embodied
in a physical good, it is subject to a tariff. So, having better
governance around this could actually unleash a lot of
global trade, and that’s where the Mode 5 Services push at
the World Trade Organization (WTO) by some countries led

by the European Union is coming from. So, in other words
research finds that if you were to have a global standard
and understanding of how you deal with insurance, R&D,
design in traded goods, it actually boosts trade in goods.”
How much can the WTO smooth the path of international
trade?
The primary aim of the WTO is to make sure that tradeflows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possiblearound the world. It is an international body that
deals with the rules of trade between nations. However,
although its role is to police this rules-based system,
the webinar panellists acknowledged its limitations.
Linda explained that the WTO’s consensus approach forsetting rules for global trade requires 164 countries andblocks to agree. In many ways this is an almost impossible
task, and only further complicated when issues such as
rapidly developing technology and data management
are added into the mix. Bart Jan Koopman, Director of
the Dutch trade association evofenedex, said: “The WTO
is in pretty bad shape, and we have quite a lot of problems
to get protectionism out of that system. And I think thatis what a lot of my companies, at least, do experience.”
DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

7

What factors are shaping the major supply chain trends?
Cost is a major factor influencing supply chain decisions
in Europe
The pandemic highlighted a range of factors influencing
supply chains. In the snap poll of our webinar audience
members, cost was revealed to be leading factor influencing
business decisions on where they manufacture and where
they sell their goods. Bart Jan noted that although some of
his organisation’s members are choosing to bring production
back from places like China to Europe, this can be quite acostly process and is currently limited to a small proportionof the membership base. However, he also acknowledgedthat the spiralling cost of transport is hitting manybusinesses hard. He said: “A lot of our customer base iscomplaining about the price of containers, which has gone
through the roof and is sometimes tenfold what it was justone or two years ago.”

For Bart Jan, working and liaising with a large numberof businesses throughout the Netherlands and Europe,a further key issue is geopolitics. He said: “From ourexperience, we’re getting much more into a world of real
trading blocs. And it’s not so much that globalisation has
stopped, but we get more of an issue like the China-US
issue. But also the US-Europe issue is still there. And I
think it would be naive to think that changing the Trumpadministration for the Biden administration, and allof a sudden, the protectionism in the US would be gone.
I don’t think that is the case… the steel and aluminium
tariffs, they’re still there and they’re not going away.”

Protectionism is increasing, toa large extent, so that is one of
the underlying drivers, why people
and companies are trying to adapt,
not only their supply chain but
their whole way of doing business.

Research by Gartner identified supply chain agility andresilience as the two most important factors cited bybusinesses.² The vast majority of the businesses theyinterviewed said they planned to make their supply chains
more resilient over the next two years, although many said
they faced trade-offs between resilience and cost. Although
greater resilience could be achieved through reshoring and thecreation of shorter supply chains, this is not the only solution
and in itself may not necessarily drive de-globalisation.

Bart Jan Koopman

Audience Q&A
Do you think that many European producers
really will move their operations from Asia,
specifically China, back to Europe?
To some extent some will. But I don’t think thatwill be the majority. I would emphasise that
I tend to see in boardrooms of companies, much
more strategic thinking on rearranging supply
chains. So it’s not only about cost, or labour orwhat have you. It’s a combination of things
that might give you the opportunity to get yoursupply chain in order in China or in Asia andfocus on that. And the same might be true for the
combination of the US and Canada. And I think
the European picture will be not very different.
Bart Jan Koopman

8

2 https://www.gartner.com/en/supply-chain/trends/supply-chain-resilience-report

DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

Audience Poll #2
WHAT ARE THE KEY CONSIDERATIONS WHENCONSIDERING A CHANGE IN SUPPLY CHAINS?
PLEASE RANK IN ORDER OF IMPORTANCE.
1. CostVERY IMPORTANT

2. Minimise disruption to supply chains
PRETTY IMPORTANT

3. Credit Risk
IMPORTANT

4. Close to customer
LESS IMPORTANT

5. Labour / skills
NOT THAT IMPORTANT

6. Carbon footprint / sustainability
NOT IMPORTANT

Asia remains attractive trading partner for Europe
As Eric den Boogert noted, concerns about supply
chain resilience and discussions over reshoring or
de-globalisation are not confined to Europe or North
America. He said: “Where a few years ago people were
hoping that the US-China trade war would be a temporary
issue, companies have now accepted that it will bea more permanent fact of life. Companies are looking
for alternatives for sourcing and manufacturing, andmanufacturing in China for other reasons than cost.”
Eric explained that the shift to set up alternative supply
chains had been in existence in Asia for many years prior

to the pandemic. Primary examples of this are the growing
manufacturing hubs in Indonesia and Vietnam. In lightof rising wage costs in China, in addition to its systemic
shift away from an export-driven economy to one more
focused on its substantial and growing domestic demand,
economies such as Vietnam are stepping into the breach
to offer low-cost labour. He said: “If you look at labour costs,
China is getting more and more expensive.
They are moving up the value chain and this is also clearlya policy. But on the other hand, it’s still very efficient.
So I think it’s challenging to give a general answer
for the whole region because it’s so big and so diverse.”

A recent study by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China on business confidence,
painted a very positive picture of European companies in the country. Althoughsome manufacturing could move, the huge domestic market and the enormous
manufacturing capabilities are still very interesting even for European companies.
Eric den Boogert

9DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

What are the most important factors
influencing supply chain decisions?
Supply chains are usually the result of a commercial
decision made by companies. Businesses are best placed
to decide where they should manufacture or procure
goods or services and where is their best market. They
will consider what is cost effective. They will want to serve
their customers and will take steps to meet their customers’
needs, possibly both in terms of what they sell but also
in how they create and deliver the final goods or services.
As Valter explained, cost is not always the most importantfactor driving these decisions. In the case of Valbruna, thekey driver was being close to the customer and strengthening
customer relations. He said: “We would say that the proximity
to our customers is the prevailing factor. In some otherindustries, maybe the cost factor as it has resulted from thepoll, is more important and for maybe other cases, to avoid
disruptions and so on, is more important. So, in my opinion
there is not one correct answer, it depends on the type ofindustry and the type and philosophy of the company too.”

Bart Jan agreed and explained that even traditional
manufacturing businesses are increasingly adding services
to their business models, selling software or support
alongside the product and, in so doing, creating ongoing
relationships long after a product has been delivered.
For some businesses, recent technological advances suchas additive manufacturing (3D printing) means that it may
be more cost effective and efficient – offering greater justin-time production opportunities – to establish production
geographically close to customers. As Linda explained: “Partof what drives reshoring is technology, and greater efficiency
and automation so I think all of that will play a factor.”
She added: “You want to make supply chains resilient, but
you also want to keep ahead of the technology. So anothertechnology which shortens supply chain is things like
additive manufacturing. In other words, instead of getting it,even in a just-in-time supply chain, the technology is there
just to print the part that you need, and then you stick it in.”We are in a transition period with a lot of big challenges from climate to
all kinds of other things. I think rebalancing in this transition period comeswith quite a few geopolitical issues. I do hope that this rebalancing meansthat we’re getting, and still keeping up, the good things about globalisation.
Bart Jan Koopman

Audience Poll #3
DO YOU BELIEVE DE-GLOBALISATION WILL STICK?

59%
YES

10
DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

41%
NO

Audience Q&A
Now that the pandemic has revealed the crucial
interdependence between manufacturers andraw material suppliers, do you think suppliers
can press for better prices?
Maybe in the short term but then things will tend to adjustin the longer term. I believe that the nearshoring concept
will play a role here because, for instance, there is a big
concern by the US of China being a dominant supplier ofrare earths. But there are a lot of rare earths that can bemined in Canada as well. And so, it is in the best interestof the US and Canada to partner and develop this industry
across borders in the US and Canada.
Valter Viero

11
DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

Supply chain resilience for strategically important sectors
Although a degree of supply chain resilience will haveoperational significance for any business, it takes on an
additional level of importance for strategic key sectors.
Recent events have brought this issue to the fore with supply
issues most recently impacting PPE and semiconductors.
As Bart Jan acknowledged: “In a connected world, when
we don’t have access to chips, everything stops”. This has
certainly been the case in the automotive industry which isstruggling with the current semiconductor shortage.
As chair of the LSE Economic Diplomacy Commission,
Linda has been working with a group of economists
studying a wide range of economic, geopolitical andother trends impacting the UK and international trade.
A key recommendation of the Commission is to “designate
and stress test systemically important supply chains.”³
The advice notes that following the 2008/2009 banking
crisis, an international body set up by the G20, the Financial
Stability Board, worked with national authorities andnational banks to identify systemically important financial
institutions (SIFI). These would include banks whose full or
partial collapse would cause significant domestic or global
disruption. These banks are subject to rules over prudential
policies and annual ‘stress tests’ to ensure they could
withstand potential shocks. The Commission’s advice isthat a similar system should be applied to supply chainsthat service health, defence or key industrial imports.

12

Linda explained that this is one area that major economies
are beginning to take more seriously. She said: “If you
look at the G7 communiqué, there is a section where theyagree that they will in the future stress test systemicallyimportant supply chains. So, that is the conflation of
economic issues, which is companies making efficientcommercial decisions, with national security intelligencedata concerns of these countries. That’s a trend that
continues.”

If there was a closure of borders,would we still be able to deliver
essential services? Now theoperationalising of this is, obviously
challenging, to say the least, but thedirection of travel is consistent withcountries now taking a more active
stance within supply chains. I think
we will see this continue.
Dr Linda Yueh

3 https://www.lse.ac.uk/ideas/Assets/Documents/reports/LSE-IDEAS-UK-Economic-Diplomacy-in-the-21st-Century.pdf

DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

How ESG concerns may drive de-globalisation trends
The most successful companies are the ones that deliver
exactly what their customers want and can add value to thetransaction. Increasing numbers of people are concerned
enough about climate change to demand ESG (Environment
Social Governance) actions from their suppliers, or to favour
suppliers that can help minimise their own carbon footprint.
This can be seen in shoppers who choose to buy local tominimise the amount of airmiles associated with their foodor clothes or consumer goods. However, it is also a trend
increasingly evident in the B2B environment, with many
contracts including green clauses and scrutiny of supply
chains through green lenses. In recognition that transport
is a major emitter of greenhouse cases, many businesses
are seeking ways to shorten supply chains, reshoring ornearshoring their operations.

then will be subject to an additional tariff to equalise
the impact of carbon.” She added: “So a carbon tax iswhat most economists think we will eventually head toin order to address climate change, and this will not be
the only initiative around what’s known as carbon leakage.”
ESG concerns are not confined to manufacturing andproduction businesses. The “intangible economy”, serviceled businesses that do not make anything physical but
do rely on digital technology, can also be responsible forthe creation of carbon. This is because data centres emita lot of energy and need a lot of energy. This means thateven services industries can have a massive impact on
carbon emissions and may need to rethink operational
practices in the light of potential green legislation.

Sustainable business policies are not just driven bycustomer preferences and consumer demand.
Government legislation is also an important driver.
As Bart Jan noted: “If you have in the very near future,for instance, a Carbon Border Adjustment Tax fromthe European Commission, you might indeed want totake much more production here in Europe and you feel
more protected. If that’s not coming through, why would
you want to change your production?”
Linda agreed with Bart Jan and said: “If the European
Union were to put this forward in a WTO compliant way inthe next two years, that will have a significant potential
impact on supply chains. Because any production, which
doesn’t meet the same environmental standards in termsof emissions as a European producer within the EU,

Audience Q&A
Can the planet survive ongoing globalisation in termsof climate change? Is de-globalisation what the planetneeds?
Climate change is something that will transform theway that we organise trade and production. Because
we all say, business needs to serve the customer andthe customer wants to have trade and manufacturing
and their products and services done in a sustainable
way. Because people are concerned about climatechange and that will push companies to try and change
their behaviour. And that may actually predate any
real green transition, especially in the transport sector.
Dr Linda Yueh

13
DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

If you’ve found this whitepaper useful, why not visit our
website www.atradius.com, where you’ll find many more
Atradius publications focusing on the global economy,
including country reports, industry analyses, advice on
credit management and essays on current business issues.
This paper captures the views of the webcast’s virtual panel
and is not necessarily a reflection of the views of Atradius.
Visit the Atradius YouTube channel to access a summary
version of the webinar.

COVID-19 CHANGED
1 HOW
GLOBAL TRADE FOREVER
TRADE RELATIONSHIPS & TARIFFS
2 HOW
ARE AFFECTING TRADE WORLDWIDE

3 DIGITALISATION ON TRADE
THE IMPACT OF

DE-GLOBALISATION – A NEW WAY

4 TO TRADE, BUT WILL IT STICK?

Andreas Tesch
Chief Market Officer Atradius
Daisy McAndrew
Moderator / Journalist
Dr. Linda Yueh
Leading economist on global trends, Fellow in Economics,
St Edmund Hall, Oxford University and Adjunct
Professor of Economics, London Business School
Valter Viero
Assistant Financial Director, Acciaierie Valbruna SpA, Italy
Bart Jan Koopman
Director of evofenedex, the Dutch trade association
Eric den Boogert
Managing Director Asia, AtradiusConnect with
Atradius on social media
youtube.com/user/atradiusgrouplinkedin.com/company/atradius
twitter.com/atradius

Copyright © Atradius N.V. 2021
Disclaimer: This report is provided for information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice,legal advice or as a recommendation as to particular transactions, investments or strategies to any reader.
Readers must make their own independent decisions, commercial or otherwise, regarding the information
provided. While we have made every attempt to ensure that the information contained in this report has beenobtained from reliable sources, Atradius is not responsible for any errors or omissions, or for the results obtained
from the use of this information. All information in this report is provided ’as is’, with no guarantee of completeness,accuracy, and timeliness or of the results obtained from its use, and without warranty of any kind, express or
implied. In no event will Atradius, its related partnerships or corporations, or the partners, agents or employees
thereof, be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken in reliance on the information inthis report or for any consequential, special or similar damages, even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
Sources include: Photo page 9: Humphery - shutterstock.com / Event panellists and Atradius economists.

Atradius
David Ricardostraat 1 · 1066 JS Amsterdam
P.O. box 8982 · 1006 JD Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Phone: +31 (0)20 - 553 91 11
info@atradius.com
www.atradius.com