COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event
Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy-Focus on Country-Specific Scenario AnalysisDecember 3, 2005 Montreal

Development ofJapan Low Carbon Society
Scenarios toward 2050
Junichi FUJINO (fuji@nies.go.jp)
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)

Population (100mil. persons)

Survey of citizens onenvironmental concerns

Population Decrease

1.4
1.2(Marks allocated)

1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4

Medium variant: 127 mil ('00)➜ 101 mil ('50)

Global Warming
Contamination

Population Projections for Japan:2001-2050
by National Institute of Population andSocial Security Research (2002)

0.20.0
1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

Deforestation
Waste (3R)

Year

1200

Ecosystem

Economic GrowthGDP(tri. yen)

1000
800

?

600

Annual growth rate ofGDP per capita:
1%/yr – 2%/yr

40020001950

1975

2000
Year

2025

Illegal Waste
Treatment
Resource
exhaustion
NetworkOthers2050
http://nikkeibp.jp/style/biz/enquete/051021quick_eco/GHG-475ppm

2100

2090

2080

2070

0年
Year

BaU

650
550
500
2060

0.0

52050

GHG: Greenhouse gases

GHG
475ppm
50% reduction
2040

1.0

102030GHG475ppm

15

2020

475

BaU

2010

2.0

20

2000

650
550500

3.0

Global GHG emissions

1990BaUTemperature rise
(global average)

温室効果ガス排出量(二酸化炭素換算：GtC/年)
GHG
emissions(Gt-Ceq)

4.0

25

1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Temperature rise(1990年=0.6℃)(above the気温上昇
pre-industriallevel)

5.0

年
YearGHG-500ppm

GHG-550ppm•It is estimated that around 50% GHG
reductions in 2050 are required tocontrol temperature rise below 2oC•Japan may require more reduction (60-80%).
Other country-level 2050 scenarios have been studied(UK 60%, Germany 80%, France 75%, and so on).

GHG-650ppm•Impacts will
occur even in
2oC temp control.
•Adaptation isnecessary.
Calculated by
AIM/Impact[policy]
ModelPath toward Low Carbon Society, Japan400

CO2 emissions（Mt-C）

350

Forecasting
BaU case300
250200150
10050

policy case

↓40% reduction↓60% reduction↓80% reduction

Backcasting

low carbon
society

02000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year

Energy Saving devices
Energy Supply change

Urban System Change
Industry Structure Change
Information Technology
Renewable energy
Consumption Behavior

Depict Future Image: Residential sector in 2050
PV on roof
3-4kW

LED light
Light eff=300%

Heat insulation
house
60% reduction ofheat demand

10-20% reduction
Super highefficiency airconditioner
Fuel cellcogeneration

COP=8

Environment
Education
Eco-life Navigation
10-20% reduction

HEMS (HomeEnergy
ManagementSystem)

Stand-by energy
reduction
33% reduction
Efficient use
New energy

Hot water supply
by heat pump or
solar heating
COP=5
Infrastructure
Eco-lifestyleSocio-economic value

Householdproduction/
Lifestylemodel

commercial
transportation

Building
Dynamic
model
Transportation
Demandmodelindustry

Total balance
check

Energy technology
bottom-up model

Macroeconomicmodel

residential

Energy balance modelPopulation
dynamicmodel

Energy value

Infrastructure model (transportation, urban development
energy supply, and so on)

General equilibrium model

AIM Models for 2050 scenario development(AIM: Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)

Energy demand in residential（ Mtoe）

Energy demand in residential sector, 2050
coolingheating

hot water

60

cooking

lighting

others

32% reductions withHigh eff. insulation,
HEMS/Eco-life, etc 25% reductions

50

with heat pump,
LED lighting,standby power
control, etc

40
30
20
1002000

BaU

Option1

Option2

2050

2050

2050

CoalBiomass
Solar/WindOil
Natural GasNuclear
Hydro
Primary energy supply (Mtoe)
0100 200 300 400 500

600

2000
Hydrogen, Natural gas
with CCS, Nuclear
H2 and renewables

Demand sideenergy-saving

Biomass

Supply sidecountermeasures

Both supply side and demand side countermeasures
are required to achieve 70% CO2 reduction by 2050

Research project on
Japan Low-carbon society scenario
studied by 60 Japanese researchers
Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized services

Eco awareness
Effective communication
Dematerialization

Transportation
system

ICT-Society

Technology

IndustrialStructure

Kyoto protocol

2050

2040

2030

2020

20082010
2012

2000

Reduction
target3. Propose
Institution Management 2. Build visions ofGHG policy
Japan Low-carbon
to realize
Social systemsociety 2050
low-carbon Reform to introduce
society
countermeasures
1.GHG Reduction
Target Setting
1990

GHG emissions

Urbanstructure

Next generation vehicles
Efficient transportation system
Advanced logistics

Most of current
infrastructure rebuilt[FY2004-2006(+2years), Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]

Key messages
1.

Large amount of GHG reductions are required.

2.

Image of low carbon society is necessary toachieve drastic GHG reductions.

3.

Both supply-side and demand-side reductions arerequired. Model studies are necessary to findconsistent path toward 2050 low carbon economy.

4.

It’s time to action. It takes time to change socialsystem, infrastructure…

5.

Our experience can apply to Asia-Pacific countries,
other countries.

Further information: http://2050.nies.go.jp/JapanLow Carbon
Society 2050