COP11 and COP/MOP1 side event

Global Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy-Focus on Country-Specific Scenario Analysis18:00-20:00, Kazan River, Montréal Convention CentreDecember 3, 2005
All presentation materials are available at “http://2050.nies.go.jp/sympo/cop11_side.html”

Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized services

Eco awareness
Effective communication
Dematerialization

Transportation
systemIT-Society

Technology

Industrial
Structure

Kyoto protocol

2050

2040

2030

2020

2008
2010
2012

2000

Reduction
targetPropose GHG Institution
Management
Build visions ofpolicy to realize
Japan Low-carbon
low-carbon
Social systemsociety 2050
society
Reform to introduce
countermeasures
GHG Reduction
Target Setting
1990

GHG emissions

Urbanstructure

Next generation vehicles
Efficient transportation system
Advanced logistics

Most of current
infrastructure rebuilt

Organized by

National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Organizers
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
NIES was established in 1974 at Tsukuba Science City, near Tokyo. It has been playing
a major role in environmental research in Japan. NIES conducts multidisciplinary
environmental studies in natural, social and human sciences. NIES, in collaboration
with institutes in China, India, Korea, and Thailand, has developed a large-scalecomputer simulation model called AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) to assessclimate policy options. AIM was selected by IPCC as one of the models for developing
new long-term emission scenarios. The model has been widely used for policy studies
and its results have been presented in various environmental assessments such as
UNEP/GEO, ECO-Asia, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment.
Website: http://www.nies.go.jp
Contact: Mikiko Kainuma,
Head, Social & Environmental Systems Division,
National Institute for Environmental Studies,
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan.
Tel&Fax: +81-29-850-2422
E-mail: mikiko@nies.go.jp

Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
“Research Project on Establishing of Methodology to Evaluate Middle to Long term
Environmental Policy Options toward Low Carbon Society in Japan (Japan Low
Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050)” was started in 2004. This 5 years project issponsored by Strategic Research Development Project, Global Environment Research
Fund (Ministry of the Environment, Japan). Around 60 Japanese researchers haveworked together to propose concrete policy packages including institutional change,technology development, and lifestyle change to achieve low carbon society toward2050. We especially focus on 1) long-term scenario development study to integrate
environmental options consistently using simulation models, 2) long-term GHG
reduction target setting considering effectiveness and validity, and 3) Assessment ofenvironmental options considering future socio-economic conditions in a) urban system,b) information technology society, c) transportation system and d) industrial structure.
Website: http://2050.nies.go.jp/index_eng.html
Contact: Junichi Fujino,
Senior Researcher, Social & Environmental Systems Division,
National Institute for Environmental Studies,
16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506 Japan.
Tel: +81-29-850-2504, Fax: +81-29-850-2572
E-mail: fuji@nies.go.jp

脱温暖化
2050

Programme

脱温暖化
2050

Kazan River, Montréal Convention Centre,
18:00-20:00, December 3, 2005
18:00-18:10
18:10-18:20
18:20-18:30
18:30-18:40
18:40-18:50
18:50-19:00
19:00-19:10
19:10-19:20
19:20-19:30
19:30-19:40
19:40-20:00

WelcomeDr. Shuzo Nishioka (NIES, Japan)
Opening Remarks
Mr. Hiroshi Ohki (Chairperson of COP3, Secretary General of GEA)
US scenarios toward 2050
Dr. Ronald Sands (Battelle, US)
Canada scenarios toward 2050
Mr. Ralph Torrie (ICF Consulting Group, Canada)
UK scenarios toward 2050
Prof. Michael Grubb (Imperial College of London, UK)
France scenarios toward 2050
Mr. Hubert Kieken (IDDRI, France)
Germany scenarios toward 2050
Mr. Martin Weiss (Federal Environmental Agency, Germany)
Japan scenarios toward 2050
Dr. Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)
China scenarios toward 2050
Prof. Xiulian Hu (Energy Research Institute, China)
India scenarios toward 2050
Prof PR. Shukla (Indian Institute of Management, India)
Panel discussion
Coordinator: Dr. Shuzo Nishioka (NIES, Japan)Refreshments will be set up and served just outside the Kazan River.
About Side-event:The main objective is exploring strategies to pursue a transition toward low-carbon
economy focusing on policy packages integrating technology development and social
structure change. The event would feature presentations and a panel discussion on
scenario analysis with experts from Canada, China, France, Germany, India, UK, USand Japan.
Key messages:
1) Low carbon economy (LCE) is necessary to stabilize climate change.
2) There is no single bullet. The way to achieve LCE is different for each country.
International cooperation is necessary.
3) LCE is possible. Aligning sustainable development & climate change actions canreduce the burden and facilitate transition to stabilization.

Key message 1: “Low carbon economy (LCE) is necessary to stabilize climate change.”
The first great step to prevent global warming was taken by Kyoto Protocol which cameinto effect on Feb.16, 2005. But it is necessary to reduce GHG (Greenhouse gases)
emissions drastically to stabilize climate change. According to recent research studies,
global GHG reduction target in 2050 is likely to be 50% of 1990 level so as not to exceed
2 degree global mean temperature increase from pre-industrial level. It means that
reduction rate for developed countries will be more than 50%, such as 60-80%.

5.0

GHG-475ppm

2100

2090

2080

2070

0年
Year

BaU

650
550
500
2060

0.0

2050

GHG: Greenhouse gases

51990

1.0

GHG
475ppm
50% reduction
2040

GHG475ppm

102030

475

15

2020

2.0BaU

2010

650
550
500

3.0

Global GHG emissions
202000BaUTemperature raise(global average)

素換算：GtC/年)(二酸化炭(GtG温室効果ガス排出量HG emissions
Ceq)

4.025

1990
20002010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
2130
2140
2150

Temperature raise(1990年=0.6℃)(above the気温上昇
pre-industrial level)

Projected Climate Change over Japan in Summer (CCSR/NIES Model results)

年
Year

GHG-500ppm

GHG-550ppm

GHG-650ppm

Relationship between temperature raise, GHG concentration level, and GHG emissions(Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy] Model)

Key message 2: “There is no single bullet. The way to achieve LCE is different for eachcountry. International cooperation is necessary to realize global LCE.”
There is no single option to solve climate change. Portfolio of countermeasures forclimate change policy is different for each country, such as renewable energy, hydrogen,energy-saving, demand side management, and so on. There is also a time lag intechnology development and diffusion between developed countries and developing
countries. International cooperation (technology transfer and capacity building) is key
to success for global LCE.
25Per capita emissions(t-CO2 per cap)

CO2 emissions share in 2000

US, 24%

Other, 44%

China, 12%20Canada15

Germany

UK10Japan, 5%
India, 5%
Germany, 3%France, 2%Canada, 2%UK, 2%US

Japan
France5World

01970

1975

1980

ChinaIndia
1990
1995

1985

2000

CO2 emissions for 8 countries

1800

(A1T)

A2: cultural pluralism

A1: high growth(A1FI)

Globalism
B1: recyclebased

IA2

1600

EconomyB2: regional coexistence

Environment

CarbonEmissions(MT)
CarbonEmissions
(MT)

A1B

1400

IB2

1200

IA11000
IA1T
800

IB1600Population
Economic growthTechnology

Agriculture (land use)
Energy400

550 ppmv

200
2000

Driving Forces

Biomass Technology Penetration

2020

2040

2060

2100

2080

Technology Transition to Stabilization

200
Carbon Capture
Energy Efficiency

550 PPMVTWh

Ton of CWind150

2000
2500

Solar

Biomass R&D

100

Biomass

1600
2000

Hydro
NuclearRenewable R&D Policy
50

1500
1200

GasOilIndia 550 ppmv emission

1000
800

Base (IA2)02000 2010

550 PPMV

2020

2030

2040

500
400

2050

01990

2005

2020

2035

2050

Role of technology for climate change in the case of India

2065

2080

2095

Key message 3: “Aligning sustainable development & climate change actions can reducethe burden and facilitate transition to stabilization. LCE is technologically andeconomically feasible.”
There is trade-off between economic development and environment conservation. LCEitself may be costly, but it creates innovations to break trade-offs and shift the frontierline toward sustainable development. LCE has ancillary benefits such as energy
security, land conservation, self-sustained city, and environmentally sustainabletransportation. Early action avoids lock-ins from current technologies and makes it

Sustainable
Development

National Economic
Targets

Economic/social Indicatorpossible to achieve national and global LCE technologically and economically.

Trade-offInnovation
strategies
Environmental Quality

Environmental Quality

National Environment Goals

Circumventing economy–environment trade-off with innovative strategies

Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized services

Eco awareness
Effective communication
Dematerialization

Transportationsystem

IT-SocietyTechnology

IndustrialStructure

Kyoto protocol

2050

2040

2030

2020

2008
2010
2012

2000

Reduction
targetPropose GHG Institution
Management
Build visions ofpolicy to realize
Japan Low-carbon
low-carbon
Social systemsociety 2050
society
Reform to introduce
countermeasures
GHG Reduction
Target Setting
1990

GHG emissions

Urban
structure

Next generation vehicles
Efficient transportation system
Advanced logistics

Most of current
infrastructure rebuilt

Scenario development to achieve low carbon economy