論文題目
氏名

論文の英文要旨
Building the State to Achieve Peace: A Moderation and Mediation Analysis ofthe Effects at the Subnational Context in Afghanistan (2002- 2021)
Mohammad Jawad Ali Aqa

Abstract
This study seeks to account for the subnational discrepancies in conflict mitigating or conflictpromoting effect of post-2001 international state-building in Afghanistan. Institutional capacity
theories consider Getting to Denmark, constructing institutional capacity, expelling rentseekers, and consolidating power to have conflict mitigating effects. According to themodernization theory, international aid employed in state-building can transform and modernize
the conflict-generating traditional social structure of war-torn societies, thereby, having conflictalleviating effect. The theory of new institutionalism assumes that institutions may both regulate
behavior and mitigate conflict. According to the problem-solving theories of liberal peace,
liberalization has a conflict-mitigating effect; while, the critical camp, the hybrid peace theory
assume that the right alignment of the local-international is conducive to peace.
According to both camp of the liberal thesis, conflict outcomes are commonly ascribedto the mismatch between international and local agency, culture, and structure. This hypothesis,
assuming the local as undifferentiated, does not account for variation in effects at the subnationalunit. In addition, the liberal peace thesis, as an overarching theoretical framework for statebuilding, peace nexus, has major methodological limitations: A) the liberal peace literature,
based on the Freedom House and Polity datasets have treated the change in democracyautocracy rating across time as an independent variable, effectively treating institutional
effectiveness as constant. This is problematic. First, it blurs the line between two distinct
variables: regime type and institutional strength. Second, it is universalistic. Well-establisheddemocracies are not the case for post-conflict societies, which either lack the state or have afragile one. B) Additional proxy variables for state effectiveness, such as per capita income andproximity to a country’s independence, which are accounted by liberal peace-related research,are only loosely correlated with the existence of functional state institutions. C) The conceptual
local of hybridity is not equal to the contextual local.
Given that, this study investigates the question of discrepancies in the conflict effect of
post-2001 state-building in Afghanistan, as well as subnational factors that may have moderated
this link, producing variation. The current study operationalizes state-building as institutionbuilding as well as service and aid delivery. It adopts an empirical operationalization of the state1and state-building rather than normative ones. Therefore, it incorporates institutional
effectiveness and state-ness data and treat the existence of coherent state institutions as its pointof departure, studying state-building peace nexus. Likewise, this study recasts on pathdependency, a theoretical tool of new institutionalism to account for the subnationaldiscrepancies in the effect. In addition, in order account for the discrepancies of the effect ofstate-building at the subnational unit, the current study proposes several subnational-specificmoderating variables in state-building, peace nexus, such as grievance, aid looting, corruption,
proximity to Pakistan, connectivity and access to Shura, which are typically considered asindependent variables of conflict. Their moderation and mediation effects are statisticallymodelled and tested, using Hayes SPSS Process Macro. The current work conducts three studiesat 1) the provincial unit (N=34), 2) the district unit (N=392) and the individual unit (N= 378).
The finding demonstrates, first, that variation in empirical sovereignty at the subnational
unit, the score of functional and coherent state institutions to mitigate conflict at the subnational
unit, is the primary determinant of discrepancies in the conflict outcome of state-building.
Second, the aforementioned moderating factors, which exist to varying degrees acrosssubnational units, moderate the influence of state-building on conflict, resulting in discrepancies
in effect. According to Study A, aid-looting mediates the effect of aid while grievance act as amoderator. Study B suggests that the effects of administrative control on conflict is buffered byproximity to Pakistan, while nor proximity to Pakistan or connectivity buffers the effect ofcounter-narcotics. The effect of civil servant access index on conflict is buffered both byproximity to Pakistan and connectivity. Study C suggests that effects of state-capacity(confidence in police and justice system) on conflict are moderated by corruption and access tolocal Shura. The effects of Rule of Law (accessibility of state courts), DDR and service delivery,
however, are not moderated by contextual factors, such as sympathy to armed groups,
accessibility of local Shura as well as corruption respectively.
In a nutshell, the existence of varying levels of state institutions and state capacity at thesubnational unit, the existence of varying degrees of empirical sovereignty to mitigate conflict,
as well as the aforementioned provincial and district-specific moderating factors,
which moderate the effects of existing state institutions on conflict, result in discrepancies in theeffects.

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