International Cooperation on
Climate Change in the
UNFCCC Framework
Tokyo, 16th June 2006

Martin Weiß
Federal Environment Agency,Germany

UNFCCC Cornerstones• Art. 2 – Objective:

Avoiding dangerous climate change• Art. 3 - Principles:

Common but differentiated responsibilities• Art. 4 – Commitments:

Monitoring and Reporting for all Parties
Annex I: Return to 1990 emissions
Annex II: Financial assistance and TT

Kyoto Protocol• Binding emission targets for Annex I (total-5%)• Flexible mechanisms• Stricter reporting• Compliance system• Entry into force 16 Feb 2005
• COP/MOP 1 (Montreal) adopted the rules

Participation• UNFCCC: 189 ratifications• Kyoto Protocol: 163 ratifications• Kyoto ratifiers represent about
75% of global GHG emissions
as of May 2006

Kyoto is on track ...
• Annex I: -5.9% (2003) while
GDP +28% and population +5%• Annex-I Kyoto Parties: -16.5%(2003)• Use of flexible mechanisms adds
to this (e.g. ~2.5%pts in the EU)

Source: World Bank/ IETA May 2006

Growing Global Carbon Market

Volumes transacted and corresponding values on the main carbonmarkets

Source: World Bank/ IETA May 2006

CDM is highly dynamic

Annual volumes of project-based emission reductions transactions
and annual average price... Kyoto is on track... but:• Mixed picture for individual countries• Annex-I Kyoto ratifiers represent only
30% of global GHG emissions (2000)• Commitments expire after 2012 – whatnext?

Current state of play
• Dialogue on long-term cooperative
action under the UNFCCC– 4 workshops, no negotiations• Ad Hoc Working Group on further
commitments for Annex I Parties– Avoid gap between Cmt.-periods• Review of the Kyoto Protocol (Art. 9)– To take place at COP/MOP 2

New Annex-I commitments• Scope of the Ad Hoc Working Groupdnoyeb further– “… scientific basis for determining
theirdna0502commitments, including…
scenarios
for the–noi
isv
stabilizationof
atmosphericconcentrations ofmretg
L on
greenhousegases and on the implications ofthese scenarios …
– … emission trends for Annex I Parties, themitigation potential of policies and lysisanatechnologies in different national&soirance experience gained so
circumstances,vincludingsleelyrtfar, andthecosts
and benefits of emission
ou nCreductions ...“ [AWG1, May 2006]

Post-2012 informally• Aspirational Long-Term Goal: a nonnegotiated vision• Adaptation: Assistance and Mainstreaming• Targets, Markets & Trading: Remain core,
new types of Targets?
• Sectoral Approaches: e.g. intensity, nolose, technology• Sustainable Development (-Pams): Energy
Security, Health, Poverty Eradication• Technology Co-operation

Fossil energy
Fossil extraction
CCS
Energy efficiency
Renewables

Investment in % of GDP

Investment Challenge
Fossil energy
Fossil extraction
CCS
Energy efficiency
Renewables

Source: MIND

Lessons learned?
• The picture is bigger than climate …
– Energy– Development– Economics/Finance–…

• G8, WEF, World Bank, OECD/IEA, Carbon
Disclosure Project, ABI-Report, Stern
Review (UK treasury)• UNFCCC as a focal point and negotiatingtable – Avoid fragmentation

US - Reference• Senate R 312 (Lugar/Biden), May 2006
– “… (A) advance and protect the economic and national
security interests of the United States;– (B) establish mitigation commitments by allcountries that are major emitters of greenhousegases, consistent with the principle of common but
differentiated responsibilities;– (C) establish flexible international mechanisms tominimize the cost of efforts by participating countries;
and– (D) achieve a significant long-term reduction in
global greenhouse gas emissions … “• all explicitly in the UNFCCC context

EU - Reference• European Council, March 2005
– “developing a medium and long-term EU strategy …,
consistent with meeting the 2ºC objective.
– … in line with the common but differentiatedresponsibilities and respective capabilities, …
significantly enhanced aggregate reduction efforts
by all economically more advanced countries [areneeded].
– … reduction pathways for the group of developed
countries in the order of 15-30% by 2020, …, andbeyond, in the spirit of the conclusions of theEnvironment Council [60-80% by 2050], should
be considered. …”

LCS and the UNFCCC
Long-term orientation:“As for the future, your task is not toforsee it, but to enable it.“

(Antoine de Saint-Exupéry)

Strategic Approach• Private (and public) sector needcertainty for investment decisions• Early incentives for development anddeployment of less emitting
technologies• Urgency: Closing window ofopportunity for long-term objectives

Conclusion• UNFCCC as a comprehensive framework tofacilitate co-operation, but also broader viewnecessary• Carbon Market offers tools for guiding
investments – should be strengthened• Vision for post-2012 just emerging –sustainable development centre stage• LCS can be valuable input for Convention
Dialogue and Kyoto AWG• LCS as an Opportunity for trust building,capacity building and exchange

Thank You!

martin.weiss@uba.de
www.fiacc.net
www.umweltbundesamt.de/klimaschutz
www.klimaschuetzen.deBackup slides ...

Source: Hare and Meinshausen 2005

EU: 2°C temperature limit

Per Capita Emissions

Population (mill.)Emission pathways (i)Source: Meinshausen 2005

Income and emissions per capita
25.00

Australia
United States of America
CanadaGHG w/o LUC/cap (tCO2-eq/cap)

20.00

Saudi Arabia

15.00
Netherlands

Russian Federation

UkraineVenezuela
Korea (North)

10.00

Uzbekistan

5.00
China

Korea (South)
Taiw an*PolandSouth Af rica
Spain

Germany
United Kingdom
Japan
Italy
FranceArgentina
IranTurkey* Mexico
BrazilThailandIndonesia
Pakistan
India

0.00
05000

10000

15000

20000

GDP per capita ($US)

25000

30000

35000