ROADMAP TO A LOW-CARBON WORLD
Third Workshop of theJapan-UK Low Carbon Society (LCS)
Joint Research Project
Shuzo Nishioka, [Executive Director, NIES]
Jim Skea, Research Director, UKERC
13-14 February, 2008
Hotel Metropolitan Edmont, Iidabashi, Tokyo

LCS PROJECT: OBJECTIVES Identifying and understanding the necessity for deep
cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions toward2050
 Reviewing country-level GHG emissions scenario
studies in developed and developing countries.
 Formulating win-win strategies to align sustainable
development and climate objectives
 Studying methodologies to achieve LCS – visions,pathways modelling the future society, technological,institutional, behavioural); financial mechanisms
 Identifying gaps between goals and the currentreality
 Sharing best practices and information; identifying
opportunities for cooperation

WHAT IS A LOW CARBON SOCIETY?
 Takes actions that are compatible with the principles ofsustainable development, ensuring that the development
needs of all groups within society are met
 Makes an equitable contribution towards the global effort
to stabilise atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide
and other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid
dangerous climate change through deep cuts in globalemissions
 Demonstrates high levels of energy efficiency and uses
low carbon energy sources and production technologies
 Adopts patterns of consumption and behaviour that areconsistent with low level of greenhouse gas emissions

LOW CARBON SOCIETY TIMELINE

February 2006 – announced by Environment Minister
Yuriko Koike and British Ambassador Graham Fry in Tokyo

June 2006: First Low Carbon Society Symposium andWorkshop, Tokyo

December 2006: Low Carbon Society Modelling Workshop,Oxford

June 2007: Second Low Carbon Society Symposium andWorkshop, London

February 2008: Third Low Carbon Society Symposium andWorkshop, Tokyo

June 2008: Publication of modelling work in ClimatePolicysomething on G8?

THE LCS PROJECT NARRATIVE
 Workshop 1
 Why do we need low carbon societies?
 Can they be achieved?
 Are they compatible with sustainable development?

 Workshop 2
 What are the options for achieving low carbon societies(concrete examples)?
 What needs to be done?

 Workshop 3
 Key findings and policy recommendations
 Dialogue with stakeholders

CONCLUSIONS: WORKSHOP 1
 Climate change represents a significant threat. Urgent
action is needed to reduce global GHG emissions
significantly
 It is technically and economically feasible to achieve deep
cuts in GHG emissions by 2050 – as much as 60-80 per centin developed countries. The costs of transitioning to lowcarbon societies are far less than costs associated withinaction.
 A wide range of stakeholders – from government; business;and civil society need to be engaged in finding solutions.
 Creating visions of low-carbon societies can help to educate
and motivate people and organisations

LCS MODELLING ACTIVITYan innovative comparative modelling processstrong developing country participationemphasis on long-term deep reductions in CO2and other GHGs



complementary model runs based on common
LCS scenarios undertaken by ten national teamsBase case: Existing model base cases linked to IPCC
scenarios or country-level forecasts

Carbon price: A forecasting run to ascertain the impact ofa relatively modest carbon price signal

Carbon plus: a 50% global reduction in GHG emissions by2050 to match the 2007 G8 summit statement

MODELLING ACTIVITIES
Team

Model

Scope

Technique

Barker (UK)E3MG

GlobalTop-down

Jiang (China)

IPAC

GlobalHybridAkimoto (Japan)

DNE21

GlobalBottom-up

Remme(Germany)

TIMES

GlobalBottom-up

Edmonds (US)MiniCamGlobalBottom-up

Bataille (Canada)

CIMS

National

Hybridsimulation

Fujino (Japan)

Linked models

National

HybridStrachan (UK)MARKALMacro

National

HybridShrestha(Thailand)

AIM

National

Bottom-up

Shukla (India)

MARKAL

National

Bottom-up

MODELLING CONCLUSIONS LCS scenarios are technologically feasible.
 Clear and early target setting across all economic
activities is needed.
 LCS will entail significant socio-economic changes.
 Sustained action in terms of R&D and technology
diffusion is needed Carbon capture and storage (CCS) istechnology in most low carbon portfolios.

akey

 Developing countries face an immense challenge toachieve LCS in light of economic growthrequirements.
 International technological co-operation is required,
as is flexible burden sharing under internationalemissions trading regimes

CONCLUSIONS: WORKSHOP 2

International action will require bold and innovative
measures: long-term policy signals for business through strengthenedcarbon pricing
 Enhanced RD&D
 Mobilising investment resources for developing countries
 Well designed strategies linked to sustainable development
can deliver significant co-benefitsChanges in human behaviour and lifestyle can contributeto low-carbon societies. Consumers must have theopportunity to make low-carbon choices.

Existing technologies can make a major contribution tocarbon emission reductions. Emerging technologies mustalso contribute significantly in the medium to long term.

A significant share of GHG emissions is due to cities.
Existing city-level initiatives show that effective action canbe undertaken.

KEY THEMES FOR THE THIRD WORKSHOP Behaviour
 Behaviour change and its impact on delivering LCSs.

 Investment
 Financing the transition to LCSs

 Opportunities and Barriers Identifying possible negative impacts and impediments toachieving LCSs
 exploring ways of overcoming them Sustainable Development
 Aligning LCSs with sustainable development

WORKSHOP AGENDA

 TO BE ADDEDTHIRD WORKSHOP AND SYMPOSIUM:EXPECTATIONS Policy Implementation Roadmap to be delivered tothe G8 Japan process Executive Summary and Workshop Report – includingsummaries of discussions and conclusions of theWorkshop and Symposium Compilation of visions of LCS from both developingand developed countries

Japan-UK Low Carbon Society Project2050.nies.go.jp