The Projected Economic Impact
of Extreme Sea-Level Rise in
Seven Asian Cities in 2030
June 2021

Cover image: Typhoon Hagibis hits Tokyo’s
metropolitan area.
© Masaya Noda/GreenpeaceThis page: Floods in Jakarta, December 2019.
© Daviara/Greenpeace Toxic air: The price of fossil fuels

February 2020

Contents

Introduction

01

Summary

03

Data and Methodology

04

Results

07

Results by City

08

Conclusion

22

References

23

Endnotes

26

People walk along a flooded highway in
Bangbuathong area, Nonthaburi province,
air: The price of fossil fuels
on the northern outskirts ofToxic
Bangkok.
February 2020
© Sataporn Thongma/GreenpeaceIntroduction

Extreme rising sea levels and flooding is athreat to coastal cities. We selected sevencities in Asia that are economic centers andare located on or close to the coast to
analyze how their gross domestic product(GDP) could potentially be impacted byextreme coastal flooding in 2030 with thebusiness-as-usual (BAU) carbon-emission
scenario, also called the RCP8.5 scenario.
Our analysis suggests how the climate crisis
may affect the economies of the cities
analysed in less than one decade unless we
act immediately to achieve a rapid
reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.

Global mean sea level rose by an estimated rateof 1.6 to 1.9 millimetres per year in the twentiethcentury in large part due to anthropogenic climatechange (Hay et al., 2015). In addition to sea-levelrise, people living in coastal areas can be at riskof flooding from storm surges and high tides.
Intensification of tropical storms are likely causedby climate change (GFDL, 2021). Climate modelling
projections suggest that through the twentyfirst century, the intensity of storms will increase,with more damaging wind speeds, higher storm
surges, and more extreme rainfall rates than storms
experienced in the past (Knutson et al., 2020).
We urge for faster and more ambitious climate
action and ask governments to commit toachieving ‘net zero’ by 2050 to limit global
warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as
outlined by the IPCC in its publication ‘The Special
Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C’ (IPCC, 2018).
We ask governments to deliver implementationplans with firm and achievable solutions, such asphasing out domestic use and financing of thefossil fuel industry and switching to an economy
that is based on renewable energy. Governments
and leaders across Asia must take responsibility tomeet the international climate target of achieving
a 1.5°C pathway to protect the economy, safeguard
the lives and livelihoods of their countries’
residents, and help to conserve biodiversity.

1The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
Typhoon Vamco aftermathSea-Levelin Manila @Jilson
Tiu Asian Cities in 2030
Rise in Seven

2Summary

The concentration of carbon dioxide in
the Earth’s atmosphere is currently atnearly 412 parts per million and continues
to rise (Buis, 2019), and the rate of sealevel rise is accelerating. An estimated
600 million people (Kirezci et al., 2020),
many of whom live in Asia, live in low-lying
coastal regions and are at risk of flooding
events that could potentially be caused
by a rise in sea levels. Some of the areas
at risk of flooding are economic centerswith significant gross domestic product(GDP) (World Ocean Review, 2010).
Extreme weather events include heat waves,
excessive rainfall and tropical cyclones. This reportfocuses on tropical cyclones and associated storm
surges, high tides and sea-level rise that may
affect seven major cities in Asia. Tropical cyclones
present a major risk to human populations andtherefore research that assesses the likelihoodof such events taking place in future decades isimportant (Seneviratne et al., 2012). However, an
important factor to note is that making projectionsof extreme climate events and the extent towhich those events will affect particular regions
is extremely difficult because weather systems
are complex and the scientific data on whichmodelling projections are based is not always
accurate or complete. In addition, basing projections
on only a few decades of data makes it difficult
for scientists to determine whether observedchanges are caused by anthropogenic activity,
natural variability – or a combination of both.
Another key point to note is that the accuracyof climate projections differs depending on the
climate event in question. For example, the global
trend is that the frequency, intensity and durationof extreme heat events are all expected to increase(Xu et al., 2020). However, whether or not tropicalstorms and cyclones will increase or decrease infrequency during the twenty-first century is notcertain (Seneviratne et al., 2012). Tropical cyclones
may become more intense this century because
the sea-surface temperature has been increasing,
so more heat energy is available for tropical
cyclones to develop. However, the projections are
based on only four decades of observational data,

and there may be regional variations in tropical
cyclone activity between the different ocean basins(Seneviratne et al., 2012). There is evidence tosuggest that the global trend is tropical cyclones
may become more intense this century because
sea-surface temperatures are warming. However,the projections are based on only four decadesof observational data, and there may be regionalvariations in tropical cyclone activity between the
different ocean basins (Seneviratne et al., 2012).
The threat of extreme sea-level rise1 means thatmany coastal and estuarine cities are vulnerable toflooding, risking the lives of the population, causing
damage to infrastructure and the local economy.
Land, population and GDP are among thefundamental resources of economic development(Yong, 2021), therefore an accurate estimation of
the potential effects of sea-level rise is important
to help make decisions to protect local properties,
infrastructure, and well-being of the population.
We used gridded data on extreme sea-level rise,
population and GDP to calculate the potential
impact of sea-level rise in seven Asian cities. This
analysis is one of the first of its kind to use highspatial resolution data to suggest the areas ofeach city that may be affected by an increase in
sea level, and to what extent the impact might
be. A similar analysis was conducted in 2020
but on a global scale for the years 2050 and
2100 using the same population and an older
version of GDP datasets (Kirezci et al., 2020).
We selected seven major Asian cities that areeconomic centers and located on or close to
the coast. For each city, we calculated the GDP,
population and land area that may be affected byextreme sea levels and coastal flooding in 2030 if
we continue to increase greenhouse gas emissions
at the current rate. The seven cities are: Hong Kong,
Taipei, Seoul, Tokyo, Jakarta, Manila and Bangkok.
Our analysis suggests that across the seven cities
we analysed, a total of 724 billion USD, 15 million
people, and 1,829 km2 land area could potentiallybe affected by extreme sea-level rise and coastal
flooding. The estimated GDP impact accounted
ranged from 0.4% to 96% of each city’s entire GDP.

3

Data and Methodology

Research suggests that coastal impacts
from sea-level rise are one of the key
economic damages associated with climatechange (Brown et al., 2011). Other economic
impacts caused by climate change include
those to health (for example, premature
mortality), agriculture, the energy sector
and riverine flooding (Schinko et al., 2020).
In the Asia Pacific region, some coastal
cities are economic centers, therefore
coastal flooding from extreme sea-level rise
may cause higher damages to those cities
and their economies. We selected sevencities for which we analyzed their grossdomestic product (GDP), population, andland area affected by extreme sea-level riseand coastal flooding. The seven cities are
Hong Kong, Taipei, Seoul, Tokyo, Jakarta,
Manila, and Bangkok.

Figure 1: A geographical illustration showing the areas of Tokyo thatare potentially at risk from sea-level rise and coastal flooding in
2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario.

In this analysis, three datasets are used: flooded area
by extreme sea-level rise and coastal flooding causedby storm surges and high tides (data #1), population
density (data #2), and GDP (data #3).
The projection of gridded sea-level rise and coastal
flooding data is from Climate Central (Kulp andStrauss, 2019). It uses elevation, extreme sea levels
caused by storm surges and high tides to determine
if a land area may flood or not. The spatial resolutionof the dataset is 30 meters.
The flooding setting used in this analysis is local
sea-level projection plus the added height of a local‘moderate flood’. A moderate flood’s height above
sea level has a 10% annual chance of being exceeded– another way to say it is a once-in-a-decade flood.
The scenario used in this analysis is Business-asUsual (BAU) greenhouse gas emissions projections
to 2030, in a scenario in which the annual global
greenhouse gas emissions continue to climb throughmost of the twenty-first century. The BAU scenario is
consistent with 3 or 4 ° Celsius of warming by 2100 incomparison to pre-industrial temperatures; thishigh-emissions scenario is also called the RCP8.5
scenario.
The gridded global population density dataset isfrom the Socioeconomic Data and Applications
Center of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space
Administration. Population data are available for five
years: 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020 (CIESIN, 2016).
The data used in this analysis are the most recent,2020. The spatial resolution is 1km.

4

The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
Sea-Level Rise in Seven Asian Cities in 2030

Data and Methodology

Fig. 1 shows Tokyo as an example. Blue indicatesareas that (under the RCP8.5 scenario) may be
impacted by sea-level rise and coastal flooding
caused by storm surges and high tides in 2030.
The area impacted was overlaid on the gridded
population density and the GDP (PPP) datasets
to calculate impacted population and GDP.
Fig. 3 shows Manila. Metro Manila consists of 16
cities and 1 municipality. The city of Manila is oneof the 16 cities, and is used as the boundary of
Manila in this analysis.

Figure 2. A geographical illustration of Tokyo’s GDP and the impact of
sea-level rise and coastal flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5
scenario.

The gridded global dataset for GDP (PPP, i.e.
purchasing power parity) is provided by Dr. Matti
Kummu, who previously published a paper using thesame methodology (Kummu et al., 2018). GDP
measures the monetary value of final goods andservices, bought by the final user and produced ina given area in a given period of time. In Kummu’s
published paper, the most recent data are from2015. The data used in this analysis are from 2019,
recently developed and shared by Kummu, in
preparation for publication. In this dataset, theconstant ‘2019 international USD’ was converted toconstant ‘2015 international USD’, the unit in which
national GDP (PPP) from the World Bank was given
for data consistency. The GDP was calculated fromsubnational GDP per capita (PPP) dataset by
multiplying it with 30 arc-sec (1 km at equator)
resolution population count dataset for year 2019from WorldPop2.
Fundamental resources of economic development,
the impact-related variables are as follows:
1. Impacted land area: share of land area impacted(km2).
2. Impacted population: share of population
impacted (number of people).
3. Impacted GDP (PPP): share of GDP (PPP)
impacted (million USD).
Two steps were used to calculate the impact on
GDP (PPP), population and land area. First, dataset#1 was imported to identify the areas that may beaffected by sea-level rise and coastal flooding in
2030. The total affected area was calculated.

Figure 3. A geographical illustration of Metro Manila and the City of
Manila.

5

Data and Methodology

Values, Limitations and Caveats
We used gridded data of areas projected tobe affected by extreme sea-level rise in 2030,
population figures and GDP to calculate the impact
on people, land and GDP for each of the sevencities studied. Our analysis suggests the impact that
sea-level rise might have on each city. Our analysis
uses high spatial resolution data and shows theregions of each city that may be most affected,
and calculates the economic impact with moredetail in comparison to traditional assessmentsthat focus on the entire city. Our analysis suggests
the locations and areas that might be more
severely affected by flooding, and provides theopportunity to more accurately assess the economic
impact and, this can be used to help informand implement policy measures and distributeresources such as flood control more efficiently.
A similar analysis was conducted in 2020 at the
global scale for the years 2050 and 2100 using
the same population, but an older version of
GDP datasets and a different dataset for flooding
projections (Kirezci et al, 2020). Kirezci et al.
(2020) used SRTM v4.1 DEM dataset for land
elevation and our dataset used CoastalDEM,
which is a new DEM utilizing neural networks to
reduce SRTM error (Kulp and Strauss, 2019).
The impact on GDP and population by sea-level
rise and flooding in this analysis should not be
understood as loss or total damage. For example,
when extreme flooding events occur, people livingin the flooded areas might be trapped indoors,or might die from flooding in the worst case.
Some cities, such as parts of Jakarta (Setiadi etal., 2020) and Tokyo (C40, 2016), have built orare planning to build levees (an enforced riverembankment) and seawalls to protect people living
in low-lying areas. Because of the lack of data,
levees and seawalls are not incorporated into thesea-level rise modelling (Kulp and Strauss, 2019) andas a result, have not been included in this analysis.
Cities with levees and seawalls will possibly haveless GDP impact by risk of extreme sea-level risedue to storm surges and high tides dependingon the effectiveness of protection measures.

6

The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
Sea-Level Rise in Seven Asian Cities in 2030

CoastalDEM used the ‘bathtub model’. In abathtub model, all land below a given water heightthat is hydrologically connected to the ocean isclassified as exposed to extreme coastal waterlevels. When a storm happens at the sea, it takes
time for the water to travel overland to generate
a flood inland. The flood event at sea may subside
before the water has time to travel inland to flood
all areas. Therefore, the model may overestimate
exposure from episodic flooding, especially at
small spatial scales (Kulp and Strauss, 2019).
For the impacted area in Hong Kong, we usedthe Digital Terrain Model (DTM) developed by
the Government of the Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region. According to the Hong
Kong Observatory, the projected magnitude ofextreme sea levels at Victoria Harbour with a
10-year flood return period is 3.8 meters (Leeet al., 2010). Because the DTM data is in integer
values, we round 3.8 meters to 4 meters. First,
we created a data layer of coastal areas thatare below 4-meters above sea level. Then weoverlaid these areas with GDP and population
dataset as we did for the rest of the cities.
The mismatch of the spatial resolutions
used in the modelling of flooded areas at
30 meters and population density and GDP
at 1km also affects the results, and may
overestimate values in areas on the edges.
The population and GDP datasets used in theanalysis are for the past and current and not a
projected value for 2030. 2020 population densityand 2019 GDP data were used to indicate flooding
risk relative to present development patterns.

Data and Methodology

Bus passengers look at boats on the same in the flooded street at Bang Kae district in Bangkok.
© Athit Perawongmetha/Greenpeace

Results
Table 1 lists the projected impacted GDP (PPP), population and areas of seven Asian cities in orderof city size for the year 2030. The impacted area for the cities ranges from less than 20 km2 to morethan 1,500 km2. The impacted GDP (PPP) ranges from less than US$3 billion to more than US$500
billion. The impacted population ranges from less than 100 thousand to more than 10 million.
Table 1. 2030 projections for the impact of sea-level rise and flooding on GDP(PPP), population
and affected areas of seven cities, listed in the order of total city size in km2.

Impacted area in km2

Impacted GDP (PPP) in
US$ billion

Impacted population in
millions

Bangkok1512.94512.28

10.45

Hong Kong

27.36

2.24

0.09

Tokyo

79.28

68.19

0.83

Jakarta

109.38

68.20

1.80

Seoul

16.52

4.69

0.13

Taipei

46.93

29.64

0.43

Manila

37.29

39.24

1.54

City

7

Results by City
Bangkok
Bangkok is located in one of Asia’s mega deltas andhas an average elevation of 1.5 meters above sea
level. Bangkok is extremely vulnerable to flooding,particularly during the monsoon season. The city’svulnerability to flooding is exacerbated by thefact that the city is sinking due to soft soils, heavy
urbanization and land subsidence. The maximum
subsidence in Bangkok is 30 mm/year (Phienwej et al., 2005). All these factors make Bangkok
particularly vulnerable to climate change and rising
sea levels. An increase in extreme storm surges
could erode the coastal area and potentially causesignificant flooding. Salt water intrusion could also
have a negative impact on drinking water supply.3

Wireless/Ploenchit could potentially be affected.
The Sappaya-Sapasathan, the new parliamenthouse of Thailand (Fig. 5), could potentially be
flooded. Mangroves along the coast and along the
Chao Phraya river could be at risk of flooding.
Fig. 6 shows Bangkok’s GDP in 2019. Our analysis
projects that in Bangkok, extreme sea-level rise
and any subsequent flooding in 2030 could
put US$512.28 billion of GDP(PPP) and 10.45
million people at risk. The impacted GDP(PPP)
accounts for 96% of Bangkok’s total GDP(PPP).

More than 96% of Bangkok’s land area is below
the level to which sea water could rise should a10-year flood4 occur in 2030, according to ouranalysis using projections under RCP8.5 (Fig.4). The
potential flood areas include high density residential
and commercial areas in the city center, medium
to low density residential areas further from thecity center, industrial as well as large agriculturalareas on the outskirts of the city. Part of Bangkok’s
core Central Business District Silom/Sathorn and

Figure 4. A geographical illustration of the potential impact of sea-level rise and coastal flooding in Bangkok in 2030, under the
RCP8.5 scenario.

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The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
Sea-Level Rise in Seven Asian Cities in 2030

Results by City

Figure 5. The Sappaya-Sapasathan, the new parliament house of Thailand, is a landmark building in Bangkok, but it could
potentially flood if the city experiences sea-level rise and coastal flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario. © Greenpeace

Figure 6. A geographical illustration of Bangkok’s GDP(PPP) in 2019.

9

Results by City

Hong Kong
Hong Kong is surrounded by the South China Sea
on all sides except the north, which neighbours
Shenzhen city along the Shenzhen River.
Hong Kong is affected by inter-annual and interdecadal fluctuations in the annual number oftropical cyclones. The lowest records are two peryear in 1997 and 2007, and highest is 11 tropical
cyclones in 1974. The average number of tropical
cyclones that affect Hong Kong is between 5
and 7 per year. Tropical cyclones cause storm
surges, and the most extreme events in the past
saw the sea level exceeding the tide level bymore than 3 metres (Lee et al., 2010), bringing
serious sea flooding to coastal low-lying areas.
About 2% of Hong Kong’s land area is below
the level to which sea water could rise should
a 10-year flood occur in 2030, according to ouranalysis under projections under RCP8.5 (Fig. 7).
Areas with higher GDP, such as financial centerson Hong Kong Island, would be less affected. On
the other hand, areas with rich biodiversity andecological functionality would potentially be more

at risk of flooding. Northwest Hong Kong, such as
Mai Po Nature Reserve and where a large portionof land is mangrove and wetland, has a very low
elevation and is vulnerable to sea-level rise. On thepath of the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, morethan 80,000 waterbirds visit Mai Po each year
(Wikramanayake et al., 2020). Tai O at the southwestof Hong Kong may also be flooded (Fig. 8).
Fig. 9 shows Hong Kong’s GDP in 2019. Our analysis
projects that in Hong Kong, extreme sea-level rise
and any subsequent flooding in 2030 could put
US$2.24 billion of GDP(PPP) and 90,000 people
at risk. The impacted GDP(PPP) accounts for 0.4%
of Hong Kong’s total GDP(PPP), which is a smaller
proportion of the GDP than for some other cities
in Asia because the areas in Hong Kong with highGDP are not projected to be affected as much as
in some cities. However, the projected impact fromsea-level rise and coastal flooding is still significant.

Figure 7. A geographical illustration of potential flooded areas in Hong Kong if the city experiences sea-level rise and coastal
flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario.

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The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
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Results by City

Figure 8. Tai O, a fishing village on Lantau Island, Hong Kong, could potentially be flooded if the area experiences sea-level riseand coastal flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario. © Joseph Chan/Unsplash

Figure 9. A geographical illustration of Hong Kong’s GDP in 2019.

11

Results by CityTokyo
Tropical cyclones typically cause a temporary risein sea level – a ‘storm surge’ – and coastal flooding.
Approximately 11 typhoons make landfall eachyear in Japan (Yamashita and Mitsumata, 2013).
In Japan, an increasing frequency and intensityof storms and torrential rain has been reported
in recent years (Japan Meteorological Agency,2020). At the same time, the impact of storm
surge flooding during typhoons is on track to
become even more severe due to rising sea levels.
Although the average elevation of Tokyo is 40
meters above sea level, a number of low-lying
areas are still at risk of flooding. According to the
Bureau of Port and Harbor, Tokyo Metropolitan
Government, Tokyo’s zero-meter zone encompasses
about 20% of the “Tokyo 23 special wards” area andis home to approximately 1.5 million inhabitants.
Approximately 40% of the 23 special wards areais 5 meters above the low tide level and thissection is home to about 3 million inhabitants(Tokyo Bureau of Port and Harbor, 2021).
About 4% of Tokyo’s land area is below the level
to which sea water could rise should a 10-year
flood occur in 2030, according to our analysis
using projections under RCP8.5 (Fig. 10). Areasat risk of flooding are primarily residential andcommercial. The low-lying “Koto 5 Wards” (Sumida,
Koto, Adachi, Katsushika and Edogawa) in theeastern part of Tokyo are primarily located in thezero-meter zone and could be affected by sealevel rise and coastal flooding in 2030, under the
RCP8.5 scenario. An estimated 2.5 million people
live in the flood prone area. In Edogawa City, 70%of the land area is below sea level, and the area
has experienced devastating flooding in the past.
Other areas that are at risk of flooding if sea levels
continue to rise include Kasai Rinkai Park (including
Tokyo Sea Life Park), which is built on reclaimed
land, and riverparks along the Arakawa River, which
are popular destinations to watch the cherry trees
bloom in spring. Tokyo Skytree, a Tokyo’s iconic
landmark and Japan’s tallest tower located in Sumida
City, could potentially be partially flooded (Fig. 11).
Fig. 12 shows Tokyo’s GDP in 2019. Our analysis
projects that in Tokyo, extreme sea-level rise
and any subsequent flooding in 2030 could
put US$68.19 billion of GDP(PPP) 0.83 million
people at risk. The impacted GDP(PPP)
accounts for 7% of Tokyo’s total GDP(PPP).

Figure 10. A geographical illustration showing areas in Tokyo that could potentially be flooded if the city experiences sea-level
rise and coastal flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario.

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The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
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Results by City

Figure 11. Tokyo Skytree could potentially be partially flooded if the city experiences sea-level rise and coastal flooding in 2030,
under the RCP8.5 scenario. © Shutterstock

Figure 12. A geographical illustration of Tokyo’s GDP in 2019.

13

Results by City

JakartaJakarta is located on the northwest coast of Java,at the mouth of the Ciliwung River on Jakarta Bay.
Sitting in a low and flat alluvial plain, the elevationof Jakarta ranges from −2 to 50 metres with anaverage elevation of 8 metres above sea level.
Thirteen rivers flow through Jakarta, which makethe city prone to flooding due to clogging caused
by insufficient drainage (Akmalah and Grigg, 2011).
Each year, Jakarta experiences flooding disasters
following heavy rains, high river discharges, andhigh tides (Surya et al., 2019). In 2007, northJakarta was affected by unusually high tides andheavy rains, and approximately 70% of Jakarta was
flooded (Rukmana, 2016). In 2020, the Meteorology
Climatology and Geophysics Agency of Indonesia
warned about the potential for high waves and sea
water increase or tidal floods of possibly 4 meters
high, especially on the northern coast of Jakarta(CSRI, 2019). In addition, excessive groundwaterdrainage is contributing to Jakarta’s subsidence,
which is on average 1 to 15 centimetres each year
(Abidin et al., 2011). Some areas of Jakarta have sunk
between 3 to 4.1 meters, especially in coastal areas(Rahman et al., 2018). Parts of Jakarta could beentirely submerged by 2050 (Kummu et al., 2018).

In 2019, The Guardian newspaper reported that thecapital of Indonesia would move from Jakarta toa yet-to-be-built city in Kalimantan (Lyons, 2019),
more than 1,000km away in the near future.
According to our analysis, almost 17% of Jakarta’s
total land area is below the level to which sea
water could rise should a 10-year flood occur
in 2030, under an RCP8.5 scenario (Fig. 13).
The northern part of Jakarta is most at riskof flooding from sea-level rise because it has
low elevation. The potentially affected areas
are residential and commercial buildings, theNational Monument and Jakarta City Hall, andshopping malls along the coast (Fig. 14).
Fig. 15 shows Jakarta’s GDP in 2019. Our analysis
projects that in Jakarta, extreme sea-level rise
and any subsequent flooding in 2030 could
put US$68.20 billion of GDP(PPP) and 1.80
million people at risk. The impacted GDP(PPP) isestimated to be 18% of Jakarta’s total GDP (PPP).

Figure 13. A geographical illustration of areas in Jakarta that could potentially be flooded if the city experiences sea-level rise andcoastal flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario.

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The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
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Results by City

Figure 14. The National Monument, Jakarta, could potentially be flooded if the city experiences sea-level rise and coastal
flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario. ©Jurnasyanto Sukarno/Greenpeace

Figure 15. A geographical illustration of Jakarta’s GDP (PPP) in 2019.

15

Results by City

Seoul
Seoul is connected to the Yellow Sea by theHan River, which flows through Seoul.
According to our analysis, approximately 3% ofSeoul’s land area is below the level to which sea
water could rise should a 10-year flood occur in
2030, under an RCP8.5 scenario (Fig. 16). Mostof the areas that could potentially be affectedby sea-level rise are in the western part of Seoul,
mainly the Gangseo-gu on the Southern bank of
the Han River and both banks of the Anyangcheonriver. Our analysis suggests that the affectedareas would mainly be residential and agricultural.
The northwestern edge of Gimpo International
Airport could be slightly flooded (Fig. 17). Areas
with higher GDP such as Seoul’s main financeand investment banking district, Yeouido, arefurther away from the sea and are unlikely to beaffected. The Gangseo Marsh Ecological Park could
potentially be at risk of flooding. The Gangseo
Marsh Ecological Park is a popular location toobserve migratory bird species (Visitseoul, 2021).

Fig. 18 shows Seoul’s GDP in 2019. Our analysis
projects that in Seoul, extreme sea-level rise
and any subsequent flooding in 2030 could put
US$4.69 billion of GDP(PPP) and 0.13 million
people at risk. The impacted GDP (PPP) isestimated to be 1% of Seoul’s total GDP (PPP),
which is a smaller proportion of the GDP thanfor some other cities in Asia because Seoul is noton the coast and the areas with high GDP are
not projected to be affected as much as in somecities. However, the projected impact from sealevel rise and coastal flooding is still significant.

Figure 16. A geographical illustration of areas in Seoul that could potentially be flooded if the city experiences sea-level rise andcoastal flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario.

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The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
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Results by City

Figure 17. Gimpo international airport, Seoul, could potentially be flooded if the city experiences sea-level rise and coastal
flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario. © Shutterstock

Figure 18. A geographical illustration of Seoul’s GDP(PPP) in 2019.

17

Results by City

Taipei
Located in the Taipei Basin, Taipei isbordered by the Xindian River on thesouth and Tamsui River on the west.
As previously mentioned, a storm surge, or atemporary rise in sea level, often occurs duringtropical cyclones. According to past century
typhoon records from the Central Weather Bureau(CWB) in Taiwan, an average of 4 typhoons makelandfall on Taiwan each year, and the strengthand scale of a typhoon has been increasing in
the past year (Hsu et al., 2017). Typhoons oftencause severe flooding to coastal areas of Taiwan(Hsu et al., 2014). In 2001, heavy rainfall at thesame time as storm surges and high tides during
Typhoon Nari resulted in major flooding in Taipei.
Press reports were that the metro system inthe city was severely damaged by floods andinoperable for almost six months (BBC, 2001).

About 17% of Taipei’s land area is below the level
to which sea water could rise should a 10-year flood
occur in 2030, under an RCP8.5 scenario (Fig. 19).
The western part of Taipei, particularly areas along
the Tamsui River, would be affected more thanother regions of the city if sea levels were to rise.
The areas that are projected to be affected aremainly residential and commercial in the centralarea, and agricultural in the north. The historic city
center Datong District and Taipei Main Station
could potentially be flooded (Fig. 20). A popularbird watching area is Shezidao Wetlands and could
potentially be at risk of flooding (eBird, 2021).
Fig. 21 shows Taipei’s GDP in 2019. Our analysis
projects that in Taipei, extreme sea-level rise
and any subsequent flooding in 2030 could
put US$29.64 billion of GDP(PPP) and 0.43
million people at risk. The impacted GDP(PPP)
accounts for 24% of Taipei’s total GDP(PPP).

Figure 19. A geographical illustration of areas in Taipei that could potentially be flooded if the city experiences sea-level rise andcoastal flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario.

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The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
Sea-Level Rise in Seven Asian Cities in 2030

Results by City

Figure 20. Taipei Main Station could potentially be flooded if the city experiences sea-level rise and coastal flooding in 2030,
under the RCP8.5 scenario. © Shutterstock

Figure 21. A geographical illustration of Taipei’s GDP(PPP) in 2019.

19

Results by City

City of Manila
The City of Manila, one of the 16 cities that makeup Metropolitan Manila, is situated on the eastern
shore of Manila Bay. The Pasig River flows throughthe city, dividing Manila into the north and south.
The average elevation is 5 meters above sea level.
Some of the coastal areas of Manila are extremely
low-lying, with elevations less than two to threemeters above mean sea level (Morin et al., 2016).
From 1902 to 2005, between 3.6 and 6.0 tropical
cyclones made landfall in the Philippines (Takagi &Esteban, 2016). In 2009, Metro Manila experienced
its worst flooding when Typhoon Ketsana flooded
almost the entire Metropolis and surrounding
provinces, affecting almost 5 million people(National Disaster Coordinating Council, 2009).
In 2020, Metropolitan Manila was again paralysedwhen Typhoon Vamco hit. It was reported in the
media that about 1.9 million households were
without power in the metropolis and nearby
provinces (Al Jazeera and news agencies, 2020).
In parts of Metro Manila, the water depth was up
to the waist. In Manila Bay, the sea level is rising
at 13.24 mm per year (Tseng, 2014). In addition,
Metro Manila is sinking by a rate of 10 cm annually(Kramer, 2018), which is caused by the overextraction of groundwater (Clemente et al., 2001).

Almost 87% of the City of Manila’s land area is below
the level to which sea water could rise, should a 10year flood occur in 2030, according to our analysis
under an RCP8.5 scenario (Fig. 22). The potential
flood areas, should sea levels rise, include highly
populated areas as well as commercial and culturalareas in the city center, high-density residential
areas further from the city center, industrial areas,
as well as places of government agencies. Historicallandmarks and popular tourist destinations suchas Binondo, Intramuros, Malacanang Palace, andthe Jose Rizal National Monument in Luneta Park
could potentially be flooded (Fig. 23). Luneta is
one of the largest urban parks in Asia and home toa variety of wildlife (Gonzales & Magnaye, 2017).
Fig. 24 shows Manila’s GDP in 2019. Our analysis
projects that in the City of Manila, extreme sealevel rise and any subsequent flooding in 2030
could put US$39.24 billion of GDP(PPP) and 1.54
million people at risk. The impacted GDP(PPP)
accounts for 87% of Manila’s total GDP(PPP).

Figure 22. A geographical illustration of areas in the City of Manila that could potentially be flooded if the city experiences
sea-level rise and coastal flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario.

20

The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
Sea-Level Rise in Seven Asian Cities in 2030

Results by City

Figure 23. The Jose Rizal National Monument in the City of Manila could potentially be flooded if the city experiences sea-level
rise and coastal flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario. © Jilson Ti

Figure 24. A geographical illustration of Manila’s GDP(PPP) in 2019.

21

Conclusion
The analysis carried out for this report hasmodelled the potential areas, population
and GDP of seven Asian cities that could
be affected by sea-level rise and coastal
flooding in 2030, under the RCP8.5 scenario(RCP8.5 is considered to be a ‘worstcase scenario’). The projected impact tothe seven cities in Asia that we analysed
could be significant. Therefore it is crucial
that governments and corporations
in each of the cities we have analysed
urgently phase out the use and financing
of fossil fuels to protect each city’s
economy and safeguard its residents.
Greenpeace urges governments and corporations totake concrete actions faster, e.g. halt coal-financing
and transition to large-scale renewable energy, tokeep the world’s temperature rise within 1.5 degree
celsius. We urge governments to develop coherent
climate actions to curb greenhouse gas emissions
and enable communities to cope with climate
impacts. Specifically, we ask governments to:
1. develop more ambitious nationally determined
contribution5 targets consistent with the Paris
Agreement 1.5°C limit ahead of COP26
2. carry out and accelerate domestic energy
transition by cancelling all new coal-fired
power plants in the pipeline, expediting thephase-out of coal-fired power plants andnuclear power stations and accelerating
the shift to clean and renewable energy
3. stop all finance for the overseas fossil fuel market
4. stop all forms of deforestation andconversion of peatlands
5. enable cities and communities tobuild climate resilience, by:a. updating infrastructure, including
establishing early warning systems,
b. decentralizing climate information to enable
more people to plan for climate impacts
c. strengthening community-based disaster risk
reduction and response to climate impacts.

22

The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
Sea-Level Rise in Seven Asian Cities in 2030

Rising sea levels can impact national GDP andlead to the loss of homes, livelihoods and jobs,
and can affect health, and the availability of fresh
water and food. Coastal flooding, storm surges andextreme weather events can also have a negative
impact on wildlife and ecosystems, which we alsoseek to protect. Currently climate action, including
nationally determined contribution targets, isinsufficient to avoid the risk of severe coastal
flooding. If leaders fail to take the magnitudeof the climate crisis seriously, the livelihoods oftheir citizens as well as national economies arelikely to become increasingly vulnerable to sealevel rise, tropical cyclones and storm surges.

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Endnotes
12
3

In this report, ‘extreme sea-level rise’ refers to sea level risecaused by high tides and storm surges, such as once-in-adecade flooding events (i.e., events with a return period often years).
https://www.worldpop.org/
https://www.usgs.gov/mission-areas/water-resources/science/saltwater-intrusion

4

In this report, a ‘ten-year flood’ is a coastal flooding
event that is caused by storm surges and high tides.
The flood’s height above sea level has a 10% annual
chance of being exceeded.

5

Nationally determined contributions or NDCs are thepledges made by each country or region to reducegreenhouse gas emissions and to meet the Paris
agreement targets.

26

The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
Sea-Level Rise in Seven Asian Cities in 2030

Buses and trucks are seen as they drive on a flooded
street at Bang Kae district in Bangkok.
© Athit Perawongmetha/Greenpeace27

Published June 2021
by Greenpeace East Asia
Copyright © 2021 Greenpeace
Authors: Jiao Wang, Mikyoung Kim
Editors: Kathryn Miller, Erin Newport
Design: Lauren Austin
Contributors: Greenpeace East Asia, Greenpeace
South East Asia, Greenpeace East Asia Research Unit
Special thanks to: Climate Central, Dr. Matti Kummu
Disclaimer
Greenpeace East Asia (“GPEA”) acts to change
attitudes and behaviors, to protect and conserve
the environment and to develop solutions fora green and peaceful future. GPEA is politicallyindependent and does not take sides in territorial
disputes. Boundaries on maps and place names onmaps and in the text reflect the data sources usedand do not represent GPEA’s political stance.
Maps throughout this book were created using
ArcGIS® software by Esri. ArcGIS® and ArcMap™
are the intellectual property of Esri and areused herein under license. Copyright © Esri. All
rights reserved. For more information about
Esri® software, please visit www.esri.com.

The Projected Economic Impact of Extreme
www.greenpeace.org/eastasia

28

Sea-Level Rise in Seven Asian Cities in 2030