MOutline• The 2010 biodiversity target• Measuring the status of biodiversity• Will we meet the 2010 target?
• What are the implications of declining biodiversity?
• Biodiversity and the functions of ecosystems

Biodiversity Loss andEcosystem Change:
Consequences for People and theEnvironment
Henk Wallays

1
The global 2010 biodiversity target

2
What is the 2010 target?
“to achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction of the current rate ofbiodiversity loss at the global, regional and national levels”• In April 2002, at the Sixth Conference of the Parties of the Convention

on Biological Diversity (CBD) 123 Ministers committed themselves toactions to:– ‘“.. achieve, by 2010, a significant reduction of the current rateof biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national levels as acontribution to poverty alleviation and to the benefit of all life onearth” (Decision VI/26).

a) Measure of state, e.g. protected area
coverage, species population size
100908070• Later in 2002,the world’s leaders, at the World Summit on Sustainable60

Development (WSSD), agreed to set a target for– ‘a significant reduction in the current rate of loss of biologicaldiversity’ by the year 2010.

504030201001960

1980

2000

2020

2040

Declining at constant rate
Declining at increasing rate
Declining at decreasing rate

3
Indicators of change
U.S. Bureau of the Census?

Goldewijk and Battjes (1997)

NOAANASA

What is biodiversity?

Richards (1991), WRI (1990)

Biodiversity loss

4• "Biological diversity" is:the variability among living organisms from all sources
including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine and other aquatic
ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which theyare part. This includes diversity within species, between
species and of ecosystems.’ (CBD)

FAO
FAO

56

Measuring biodiversity

Population decline – all terrestrial species

What can we say about the status of global diversity?

On average, populations are in decline:
Local population sizes have declined 30% since 1970

• Within species• Species level• Ecosystem- biome level

Source: WWP UNEP-WCMC Living Planet Report 2006

7908

Population declines - EuropeSpecies• Well defined units.
• Variety of measures: richness, diversity, endemism,
phylogenetic, ecological roles, etc.

• Biological importance is clear.
• Resonance with policy, legislation.
• Much potential and actual data.
• Overall bias to large-bodied organisms and terrestrial
habitats.

9Species
numbers
onknown
Earth:andSpecies
numbers
on Earth:
estimatedtotalknown
and estimated total

10
Threat status of species
IUCN Red List Status: Mammals, birds, amphibians

LC (56%)
LC (78%)DD (23%)

LC (39%)DD (8%)

DD (1%)CR (2%)CR (3%)EN (4%)CR (7%)EN (7%)VU (7%)

NT (12%)

LR/cd (1%)a). Mammals (n = 4,776)

NT (8%)VU (13%)

EN (13%)

NT (6%)VU (12%)b). Birds (n = 9,784)c). Amphibians (n = 5,708)

11
Trends in threatened species

12Species extinction rates: past, present and future

Threatened birds show deterioration in their conservation status
Humans have increased
the species extinction
rate by as much as
1,000 times overbackground rates
typical over theplanet’s history
Future projections
suggest that species
extinction rates could
increase to 10 to 100
times higher than in
the recent past (lowcertainty).

13

14Species: Summary

Species homogenisation• Maybe only 1/10 of the world’s species are named anddescribed.

The distribution ofspecies on Earthis becoming morehomogenous• Information is biased towards large vertebrates and temperateregions, yet most of the world’s terrestrial species richness isinvertebrates and concentrated in the tropics. Marine habitats
are especially poorly documented.
• Humans have greatly increased the species extinction rate.
Current extinction rates are around 100 times greater than in thefossil record. Less direct methods estimate future increases of1000 to 10,000 times.
• Species assemblages are increasingly dominated by a small
number of widespread, human-adapted species. Locally this canincrease species richness, but overall it represents a loss.
Growth in Number of Marine Species
Introductions in North America and Europe

151691

Ecosystems

Changes to ecosystems: global• No single agreed classification – can exist at any scale.
• Clear links to many ecosystem functions and services.
• Much new information from large scale mapping andMore than two thirds ofthe area of two biomes
and more than half of
the area of four others
had been converted by1990
Projected futurechanges areconcentrated in thetropics, while limited
recovery is expected in
the temperate forests
and woodlands.

remote sensing (with care).

• For some purposes, avoids knowledge gaps.

17
Changes to ecosystems: Europe18
Will we meet the 2010 target?
• From the information to hand, at global level – no.
• Roughly 1% of biodiversity is lost each year, and most trends are toincreasing rates of loss.

• But there are places, habitats and species where the situation has
improved:– Intensively managed species– Habitats under restoration and management, especially in Europe
and North America• Local species diversity may be increasing while globally it declines• While the major driving forces behind biodiversity loss remain, the trend
cannot be reversed.

1920
Key problem: Increasing rates of climatechange and pollution

Direct drivers of biodiversity loss are still growing
in intensity

Growing threats to ecosystems:

Most direct driversof degradation
remain constantor are growing inintensity in mostecosystems

2122

Climate change impacts

Current CO2 380 ppm
Pre-industrial
CO2 280 ppm

What will be the consequences of losing ecosystems,
species and populations………?

S.T. Jackson & J. T. Overpeck, 2000,
Paleobiology, 26, 194

Petit et al., 1999, Nature239224

Ecosystem Services = Benefits people obtainfrom ecosystems

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment– Called for by UN Secretary General in 2000,
reported in 2005-6;– Examined the status of the world’s ecosystems
and their ability to meet the needs of a growing
number of people;– Largest assessment ever undertaken of thehealth of ecosystems: 1360 experts from 95
countries;– Consensus of the world’s scientists: explicit
identification of areas of controversy or
uncertainty;– Multi-stakeholder board included government,business, NGOs, indigenous peoples;– Policy relevant not policy prescriptive.

Provisioning Services– Food– Freshwater– Wood fuel– Timber– Fibre– Genetic Resources

25

26

Ecosystem Services = Benefits people obtainfrom ecosystems

Ecosystem Services = Benefits people obtainfrom ecosystems

Provisioning Services

Provisioning Services

Regulating Services

Regulating Services– Climate Regulation– Flood Regulation– Disease Regulation– Water Purification

Cultural Services– Aesthetic– Spiritual– Educational– Recreational– Social Relations

27
Ecosystem Services28Biodiversity: what is it for?

Ecosystem Services

Ecosystem Services

Constituents of Well-being

The benefits people obtain from ecosystems

Provisioning

Regulating

CulturalGoods produced orprovided byecosystems

Benefits obtained
from regulation ofecosystemprocesses

Non-material
benefits fromecosystems• food• fresh water• fuel wood
• genetic resources• climate regulation• disease regulation• flood regulation

Biodiv
ersity• spiritual• recreational• aesthetic & inspirational• educational

Supporting
Services necessary for production of other ecosystem services• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling• Primary production

Provisioning
Services

Supporting
Services

Regulating
Services

CulturalServices

Security

Basic
Material forGood Life

FreedomsandChoice

HealthGood Social
Relations

From: Ecosystems and Human Wellbeing. MA 2003

2930
During 1950-2000 ecosystem change was more
rapid than any time in human history

Main Findings– More land was converted to1. Humans have radically alteredecosystems in the last 50 years.

cropland in the 30 years
since 1950 than in the 150
years between 1700 and1850– 20% of the world’s coral reefs
were lost and 20% degraded– Flows of biologically available
nitrogen doubled and flows ofphosphorus tripled

www.MAweb.org

3132

93

Recent changes to ecosystems haveprovided substantial benefits

Main Findings– Food production

1. Humans have radically alteredecosystems in last 50 years.

has more thandoubled since1960

2. Changes have brought gains tomany people– Food production
per capita has
grown– Food price has
fallenwww.MAweb.org

33
Main Findings

34
The Balance Sheet• 1. Humans have radically alteredecosystems in last 50 years.

• 2. Changes have brought gains butat growing costs that threaten
achievement of development goals.

Enhanced

Degraded

Crops
Livestock
Aquaculture
Carbon sequestration

Capture fisheries
Wild foods
Wood fuelGenetic resources
Biochemicals
Fresh Water
Air quality regulation
Regional & local climate
regulation
Erosion regulation
Water purification
Pest regulation
Pollination
Natural Hazard
regulation
Spiritual & religious
Aesthetic values– Degradation of many ecosystemservices– Increased risk of abrupt changes inecosystems– Growing harm to poor people

Mixed
TimberFiber
Water regulation
Disease regulation
Recreation & ecotourismBottom Line: 60% of Ecosystem
Services are Degraded

www.MAweb.org

3536
MA Scenarios

Main Findings
1. Humans have radically alteredecosystems in last 50 years.

– Not predictions – scenarios are plausible

2. Changes have brought gains but at
growing costs that threaten
achievement of development goals.

– Both quantitative models and qualitative

futuresanalysis used in scenario development

3. Degradation of ecosystems could
grow worse but can be reversed.

www.MAweb.org

3738
Improvements in services can be achieved by2050

MA Scenarios

Global Orchestration

Order from Strength

ReactiveRegionalization

Proactive

Environmental Management

World Development
Globalization• Three of the four scenarios show that significant changes in policy
TechnoGarden

can partially mitigate the negative consequences of growingpressures on ecosystems, although the changes required are large
and not currently under way

Adapting Mosaic

399440Some services improved in three of thefour MA scenarios

But the actions needed are significant and
not underway

Examples:– Investments in public goods (e.g., education) and poverty–––––––

reductionFreshwater– Elimination of trade barriers and distorting subsidies– Use of active adaptive management– Investment in new technologies– Payments for ecosystem services

Water regulation
Erosion control
Water purification
Storm protection
Aesthetic values
Recreation

4142
Promising Options:
Change the economic incentives

Main Findings

Problem can’t be solved so long as ecosystemservices are treated as free and limitless

1. Humans have radically alteredecosystems in last 50 years.

••

2. Changes have brought gains but at
growing costs that threaten
achievement of development goals.

Measure ecosystem service values
Incorporate into cost-benefit analyses

Agricultural and fisheries production subsidies
cause ecosystem service degradation.

3. Degradation of ecosystems could
grow worse but can be reversed.
4. Workable solutions will requiresignificant changes in policy–

Annual subsidy to agricultural inindustrialized countries: $324 billion
annually (1/3 of global value)–

Annual subsidy to fisheries inindustrialized countries $6.2 billion (20%of global value)–

Opportunity to shift subsidies topayments for ecosystem services

www.MAweb.org

4344
Biodiversity: what is it for?

MA general conclusions• We are spending Earth’s natural capital, putting such

Ecosystem Services

strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability ofthe planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations canno longer be taken for granted

Biodiversity• The degradation of ecosystem services could growsignificantly worse during the first half of this century andwould be a barrier to achieving the UN Millennium
Development Goals• At the same time, the assessment shows that the future

really is in our hands. We can reverse the degradation ofmany ecosystem services over the next 50 years, but thechanges in policy and practice required are substantial
and not currently underway

Provisioning
Services

Supporting
ServicesRegulating
Services

CulturalServices

Constituents of Well-being

Security

Basic
Material for
Good Life

Freedoms
andChoice

HealthGood Social
Relations45
Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functions

Immediate benefits from biodiversity
coral reefs buffer storm impacts

46

vultures dispose of carcasses
and corpses

Fernando et al. 2005 Eos 33: 301-304
Prakash et al. 2003 Biol. Conserv. 109:381–390

47Species diversity increases plant biomass
production in grasslands

Biodiversity increases wood productionin Mediterranean forests

Tilman et al., Science 294: 843–845 (2001)

Vilà et al., Ecol. Lett. 10: 241–250 (2007)

48

95

Economic benefits––The marketed values of
ecosystems associated withtimber and fuelwood production
are less than one third of the total
economic value, including
nonmarketed values such ascarbon sequestration, watershed
protection, and recreation.

Biodiversity isboth affected byglobal change anda factor thataffects humanwell-being

The economic value of thesebenefits is often high andsometimes higher than themarketed benefits

Figure from Diaz et al PLoS Biology (2006)

MA 2005

4950
Cape Floristic Region: South Africa:
Integrated conservation planCowling, Rouget, Pressey 2001 - 2006

Protea species richness
1-5
6 - 10
11 - 20
21 - 30
31 - 64

How can we approach the complexityof managing a very crowded
planet for many needs,
especially with global change ?

Biodiversity patterns:
species richness, population viability assessments,
irreplaceability, habitats types….

Vertebrate species richness
1-2
3-5
6 - 10
11 - 20
21 - 113

Ecological and evolutionary processes- edaphic interfaces
ecological diversification- sand movement corridors inland movement of sand- riverine corridors
migration and diversification- upland-lowland interfaces ecological diversification- upland-lowland gradients adaptation to climate change

Irreplaceability- phytogeographic gradients geographic diversification

Broad Habitat Units (2000)
Mammal plan

N0100 Kilometers

50050

100 Kilometers

N51
Local scale example

BushmeataBioprospectingcTimberb

Existenced

Carbon storagee

To properly manage biodiversity andecosystems for the benefit of all, there isplenty yet to be done….

Mbaracayú ForestNaidoo
Biosphere
Paraguay& RickettsReserve,
2006 PLoS Biol.
4: e360(a) Ecosystem service economicbenefits(c) comparing benefits and costs
1 service

3 services

52(b) Costs2 services– lostbenefits fromconversion toagriculture

Thank you…

4 services

all 5fbenefits < costbenefits > cost
Naidoo & Ricketts PLoS Biology 2004

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