The Winnersof the Blue
1993

PlanetPrize

1993Blue

PlanetDr. Charles D. Keeling(U.S.A.)
Professor,

Scrippsat the University

Institutionof California,

of Oceanography

Prize
IUCN—The World Conservation
Union(Headquarteredin Switzerland)

San Diego

The 1993 awards ceremony opened with a slide presentation
beings are a part of life on Earth.

showing

the essential beautyof nature and how human63His Highness Prince Akishino and Her Highness Princess
awards ceremony for the 1993 Blue Planet Prize.

Kiko attend thePrince Akishino
andtoast the laureates.

Dr. Keelingaccepts

the 1993 Blue Planet

Princess

Kiko

Prize.

Dr. Holdgate, representing
Blue Planet Prize.

the IUCN,

accepts

the 1993

Professor
Takashi Mukaibou,
chairman of the Presentation
Committee,
describes the Blue Planet Prize selection process.

Jeno C. A. Staehelin (left), Switzerland's
ambassador to Japan, and Michael A. G.
Michaud, minister counselor for environment, science and technology at the U.S.
embassy in Japan, listen as His Highness
Prince Akishino addresses the audience.
Seated in the audience during the symposium,
which
focused on population-related
problems, the winners
add their views on the population debate.
64

Profile

Dr. Charles
Professor,

Education

ScrippsandInstitutionof Oceanography

AcademicandB.A., University

of Illinois

1953-56

Research

California

1954

Ph. D., Northwestern

University

1956-64

Assistant

Research

Chemist,California,

San Diego

Fellow,

Guggenheim

1964-68

Associate

1968

Fellow,Institute

Scrippsof California

Professorof Oceanography,

San Diego

of Oceanography,

Universityof Technology

Institution

Institute,of Oceanography,

Universityof California,

Activities

Meteorological

Professor

Keeling

at the University

Professional1948

1961-62

David

University

Scripps

Scripps

Institution

Physikalisches

Institutofof Stockholm

Institutionof Oceanography,of Oceanography,

UniversityofCalifornia
1969

Guest

Professor,

Zweiten

1981

Half-Century

1986

Fellow,

American1990

Fellow,

American1991

Maurice

Ewing

Award

of the American

AcademyAssociation
Medal,of the University

Meteorologicalof Heidelberg

Societyof Arts and Sciences
for the Advancement

AmericanGeophysicalof Science

Union

Dr. Keeling has also been Scientific Director of the Central . Carbon Dioxide Laboratory
World MeteorologicalOrganization since 1976.

of theDr. Charles D. Keeling is an earth scientist who has conducted pioneering research into carbon dioxidelevels of the atmosphere and ocean, as well as the global carbon dioxide gas cycle.
The first to recognize the importance of scientificallymeasuring atmosphericcarbon dioxidelevels, Dr. Keeling in 1958began precise measurements using nondispersive infrared analysis
at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and started atmospheric observation at the South
Pole. Continuing his research for more than 30 years, Dr. Keeling has amassed a great deal ofuseful data. This long record of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels has provided the international scientificcommunity with an invaluablebody of data that today forms the basis for an
ongoing discussion of global warming.
Born in 1928 in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Dr. Keeling received his undergraduatedegreefrom the University of Illinois. In 1954,he earned his doctoratefrom Northwestern University.
Dr. Keelingjoined the Scripps Institutionof Oceanography at the Universityof California, San
Diego, in 1956 and became the Professor of Oceanography in 1968, a title which he holds tothis day.

65

Lecture

A Brief

History

Measurementsof Atmospheric
and

Their

CarbonImpactEnvironmental
Dr. Charles

Dioxideon Thoughts

about

ChangeD. Keeling

IntroductionMore than a few people have wondered why I have spent 40 years focused mainly on a single
chemicalmolecule: carbon dioxide. I would like to explain to you how it was possible to maintain an interest in this simple molecule for so long. I will start by taking you back to the beginnings of science when neither this molecule, nor any other molecule, was known to anyone.
Then, after sharing with you some of the early developments of science which led to the discoveries of carbon dioxide and its importance to life and to the Earth's environment, I will
explain how I more or less accidentallybecame interestedin studying this substance, and inadvertentlyjoined a long succession of scientists who have investigated its role in nature.
Early

Historyof Carbon

Let us contemplate

Dioxidethe world as seen by people living before the birth of modern science. We

can imagine that the most curious among them attempted to understandthe nature of air, water,

and the matter which makes up living plants and animals. For example,

people could perceivethat strong winds involved some kind of invisible substance. Perhaps it was the same substancethat caused bubbles under water. But lacking means to probe further into causes, and lacking
any understandingof how matter was made up of tiny molecules,

any great progressin understanding

they were unable to makenature better. Thus, they had no real idea of why plants

have leaves, or how climate might be influenced

by a changing

compositionof an atmospheremade up of individual gases mixed together. Indeed, the notion that climates could change was
not thought about.
Because people then had no idea that plants exchange
air contains substances

substanceswith the air and thatthat influence climate, the topic which became my life work could nothave been conceived before modern science laid the groundworkfor understanding

istry of gases. Of course, people were free to speculate,and, as an example,

born in the late 1600s, asked in an essay on vegetables

in 1727 whether

might not be there because the plants drew some part of their nourishment
The discoveries

which led to an understanding

the chem-

Stephen Hales,

the leaves of plantsfrom the air.

of the nature of air began in 1754 withthe observations in Scotland by Joseph Black, who found that something in air could be precipitated in water containing lime to make a milky solid material. This substance he called"fixed air." It was actually carbon dioxide gas, but he had no idea that it was composed of car-66

Table1 Early Measurementof CO2 in Air

Approximate
Alexandervon Humboldt

Theodorede Saussure

1797

Mean Concentrations

1830
1870

290 ppmv

1828
1829

Found

circa 1% (10,000 ppmv)
596 ppmv
506 ppmv
447 ppmv
403 ppmv
373 ppmv

1815
1827

Jules ReisetTime

bon and oxygen as the modern name implies, because these chemical elements had not yet
been identified.
During the next 30 years, a time shorter than I have been measuring carbon dioxide, thechemistry of the atmosphere was worked out by the great "pneumochemists," as they werecalled at the time. The discovery was made that liquid water could be separated into two gases,
one of which was a new gas that was called "inflammableair,"but is now called hydrogen. The
other was later called "oxygen." Soon afterwards that gas was discovered to be part of air,where it is mixed with a nonreactivegas that later came to be called nitrogen. Fixed air, the gas
discovered by Joseph Black, was shown to consist of oxygen and another element that cameto be called carbon. Lavoisier, who discovered this a short time later, proposed the theory ofoxidation by which elements, in general, combine to form molecular compounds.
With this tantalizing insight into a basic premise of modern chemistry, the discovery ofmany more elements and of many chemical reactions soon took place. Meanwhile, other naturalists, led mainly by sheer curiosity as had been the first pneumochemists,began to probe theprocess by which plants grow.
Even before Lavoisier had positively identified oxygen as a gas and given it its present
name, an Englishman named Priestly had found that vegetables grown in a confined spacecaused the air to change in some way that supported combustion. He thus came close to realizing that plants give off oxygen when they grow, although he mistakenly thought the plants
were removing something from the air called "phlogiston." Soon after Priestly's discovery, aDutchman named Jan Ingen-Housz found that plants do what Priestly discovered only in thepresence of sunlight. In the dark they appeared to "poison" the air, as he said. A Frenchman,
Senebier, further noticed that plants grew better if they were supplied with "poisoned air,"which he recognized to be not a poison at all but fixed air, that is, carbon dioxide. In 1796
Ingen-Houszthen carried Senebier's idea even further by proposing that the organic matter ofplants comes from the carbon that Lavoisier had found to be part of fixed air; that is, plants
don't just transform carbon dioxide into some other gas, they utilize part of it, as well. IngenHousz also suggested that this carbon is absorbed by plants through the leaves, not from theground as most people had previously supposed.Ingen-Houszcited the evidenceof Alexandervon Humboldt that air typically contains 1% carbon dioxide.

67Von Humboldt's first measurements of carbon dioxide in air were much too high. Thisdidn't matter to Ingen-Housz's theory, but it established a bad precedent. It took many years
before the amount present in the air was correctly measured, as indicated in the summary
shown in Table 1.
In 1804, Theodore de Saussure showed that water was, also an essential chemical in photosynthesis, combining with carbon to make actual living matter. He also demonstrated moreclearly than Ingen-Housz that the carbon involved in plant growth came from the air. Curious
about the carbon dioxide in the air, he made the first detailed measurements of its concentration there, measuring it near Geneva, Switzerland, under different wind conditions, different
hours of the day and different months of the year. The mean value that he found was roughly
0.04% by volume, which I will put in modern units as 400 parts per million by volume (ppmv).
This value was much less than von Humboldt had found, but still in considerable error.
De Saussure's Memoires, published in 1830, nevertheless ushered in a period of increasingly precise measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide, culminating in some nearly correct measurements in the 1880s by a Belgian named Jules Reiset. Reiset's data were the firstto show correctly the seasonal cycle in atmospheric carbon dioxide. These data indicated thatsummer values on the Atlantic Coast of Belgium were lower than winter values by about 10
ppmv. This seasonal difference we now know to be due mainly to the uptake of carbon dioxide by plants, which gradually reduces the amount of carbon dioxide in the air over the whole
Northern Hemisphere from May to September, and over the Southern Hemisphere from
November to March. Unfortunately, none of the other investigators of carbon dioxide reproduced the seasonal cycle even approximately correctly, casting doubt on all of their data.
After the 1880s, interest in carbon dioxide diminished for reasons which I have notbeen able to establish. Indeed, a quick and easy but not very precise 19th century technique of
measurement, called Pettenkofer's Method, became the most common method for measuring
carbon dioxide, so that measurements actually became less precise than the best of those of the
19th century. The 20th century data were generally higher than the correct concentrations,although of course this wasn't known at the time.
•

550
•

•

UNSELECTEDA

SELECTED

•

500

•
•

0

•

450 z

•

•

°

•

0
H
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Lu

.
°

•

•
•

era•

•

•

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z0

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• ••
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300

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1800

1820

1840

1860

*

A6,

•

p

1880

1900

YEAR

68

•

LA-A—
1920

1940

1960

Figure 1 Measurement of the concentration of atmospheric CO2 in the Earth's
atmosphere. Measurement selected by G.
S. Callendar as the most reliable areshown as open triangle. Concentration isexpressed in parts per million (ppm) byvolume.

In the 1930s, in the midst of this period of low interest in atmospheric carbon dioxide,a steam technologist named G. S. Callendar made a personal hobby of carbon dioxide . In aseries of papers, he summarized what was known about atmospheric carbon dioxide and its
likely effect on climate. He attempted to select the most reliable measurements from the past
for study. I haveplotted these observationsin Fig. 1, distinguishingthe ones that he consideredmost reliable. From these he came to the conclusion that the combustion of coal, along withthe other major fossil fuels, methane and petroleum, was probably responsible for causing
atmosphericcarbon dioxide to increase, as the observations indicated. He correctly perceived
that ocean water contains a vast reservoir of bicarbonates and carbonate salts which reactchemically with carbon dioxide. He thus supposed that the world oceans had absorbed someof the carbon dioxide produced by combustion. However, on the basis of the direct carbon
dioxide observations, he was misled into concluding that the rise in carbon dioxide actually
exceeded the amount that had been added to the air by fuel combustion.His most detailed article on the subject was publishedin 1938but he continued to publish articleson the subject until
1958, thus overlapping with my first studies. Indeed, we exchanged letters just before his lastarticle was written.
This brings my talk to where I will discuss my own work. From this point on I will callcarbon dioxide by its chemical name, CO2.
A Career Measuring Carbon Dioxide
My interest in atmospheric CO2 came about quite accidentally.As a student I had studied theirradiation of polymeric films by high-energy neutrons from a nuclear reactor, a subject having little to do with environmental science. After receiving my doctoral degree I decided tochange fields and study geological processes, from the viewpoint of a chemist . At the
California Institute of Technology, in Pasadena, California, my supervisor, Dr. Harrison
Brown, allowed me to choose a topic to study, and I decided to determine how the acidity ofnatural waters is influenced by contact with CO2gas in the atmosphere. The rivers and lakes
that I visited all happened to be near forests. As part of my experiments, which began in 1954,
I measured the pressure exerted by CO2 dissolved in the water, and the amount of CO2 in the
air. Since I didn't know how constant the CO2 concentrations in air might be , I made measurements every few hours for a day at a time, thus obtaining measurements during both dark
and light periods. Inadvertently I was measuring the diurnal cycle of CO2in forest air.
To carry out my measurements of CO2, I built a manometer, which is a device that measures the pressure of CO2 gas in a confined volume. By measuring the temperature of the gas
as well as the pressure, and by calibrating the confining volume, the manometric determination of CO2 gave a higher precision than had been attained previously by chemical methods . I
also similarly measured the quantity of air by the same technique beforehand, and I separated
the CO2 from the air using a new method that I had read about, freezing it out in a trap cooledwith liquid air.
My first measurements were made with only a brief prior investigationof the scientific
literature. But soon I began to search this literature to learn about atmospheric CO2. I foundout, of course, that it was reported to be quite variable in concentration. For example, only a69

Table2 CO2 Concentration in Different Types of Air (Buch, 1948)

High

Arctic:Modified

Arctic:Maritime

Polar:

309 —345 ppmv

Tropical:
ppmv:

parts

150 — 230 ppmv
283 —316 ppmv

of CO2 per millionparts

319 —349 ppmv
of dry air by volume

short time previously,in 1953,a comprehensive book on the geochemistry of all of the Earth's
elements was published. The chapter on carbon quoted extensive CO2data by a scientist from
Finland named Kurt Buch. As shown in Table 2, Buch had decided that air from different
regions of the Earth showed characteristic concentrationsthat varied from below 200 ppmv in
the Arctic, to nearly 350 ppmv in tropical regions. At first I could see no reason to question
these data.
Neither did Karl Gustav Rossby, a world famous meteorologist who had pioneered
weatherforecasting in America and had recently returned to his native Sweden to establish an
institutionof meteorology there. He decided to include chemical measurements in the study of
meteorological processes at his new institute. To do so, he helped to establish a network ofsome 50 locations in Scandinavia. Measurements of CO2 at these locations began the same
year that I made my first measurements. The Scandinavian data appeared in each issue of a
new Swedishjournal of geophysics called Tellus.The measurements evidently confirmedthat
large variations of atmospheric CO2occurred evenin the open air away from plants and major
cities,just as Buch's data had indicated.
Since I had been measuring CO2in forested areas which might be expected to promotelarge variations,I was surprised to find that measurements which I made in the afternoon had
nearly the same CO2 concentrationeverywhere that I went, contrary to the Scandinaviandata.
Afternoon is when the heating of the ground by the sun causes the air near the ground to mix
with air above the trees, so that the effect of photosynthesison the concentrationof CO2 should
not be very strong. I decided that I was probably measuringthe same CO2 concentrationas was
occurring above the trees. To confirm this, I made additional measurements away from trees,on beaches of the Pacific Ocean during sea breezes, on high mountains at elevations too highfor trees to grow, on deserts near my home where there were hardly any plants at all and, withthe help of a professor at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, in air collected on a ship inthe eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.In all cases I found the concentration of CO2 in theafternoon to be close to 315 ppmv. I came to the conclusion that the published 20th century
data generally were in error and that the CO2 concentration, when not locally influenced, wasnearly the same at least from the equator to the northern limits of the United States, and perhaps everywhere.
It took me two years to reach this conclusion. The year was 1956. I learned that plans
were being made for a large international study of the environment called the International
GeophysicalYear,and that this study was to include measurementsof atmospheric CO2.These
were to be patterned after the Scandinavian program already operating. I expressed my con-70

cernsto several

usefulif theWexler,directorplannersof the International

Scandinavian

methodof research

open-airmeasurementsslightly

with the previous

was to tell me aboutof CO2 which
location

observatory

had been constructed

CO2 was increasing

Thenof these
Service.

that

from

directorof CO2 varied

data. His responsesuch measurements

is shown

and Wexler

couldof Hawaii.

of Mauna

Geophysicalonly

be made over longon the island

high on the mountainof the Scripps

measurements
place

an averagein 10 or 20 years one couldof both Revellehim my best

the concentration

to place.

The

Loa. He wasYear, and he encour-

I followedof Oceanography.

of CO2 over the past century,

a limited"benchmark"remeasureInstitution

He argued

valuethat the best
numberof measurementsof the global

averageinconcen-in the air. He

and airplanes.
of Oceanographyboth of their approaches.

he still

way to decide

CO2 to see if it had increased

proposed that I make extensive CO2 measurementsfrom ships
In the summer of 1956 I moved to the Scripps Institution
urgingwas Dr . Harry

I showed

to the Scandinavian

Loa Observatory

in the air was to obtainso as to establish

planners

not be very

there.

of the existingwhetherOne

the International

Revelle,the idea that CO2 varied

tration.

duringmeasurements

accepted

placeswhere

the year before,

usedwith Roger

From his own examination

manystationwas called the Mauna

to see the observatory

I also talked

suggested

Year that the data might

Weatherof the air, contrary

a new remote

The location

aged me to try to maketo be used.

for the U.S. Nationaltime periods.

eager

were

Geophysicaland with the

The scope of the study

in Fig. 2.

The method
had allowedof measuring

me to analyze

about

CO2 that I had used at the California
500 samples

Figure 2 Locations of stations and ship
tracks for sampling atmospheric CO2.
Stippled (gray) areas indicate regions
where sampling took place along multiple ship tracks, not shown individually.

in two years.

Institute

To accomplishof Technology

a muchmore exten-

0

6000m
3000m
SURFACE (CONTINUOUS)

SOUTH

POLE

SURFACE (FLASK)

71

Table3 CO2 Concentrationin Different

Regions

in 1962

Arctic:Pacific

313 —325 ppmv
Ocean

Equatorial
South
Measurements

by the Scripps

at 20 °N:

Pacific:

Pole:
Institutions

315 —321 ppmv
317 — 321 ppmv
317 — 319 ppmv

of Oceanography

sive program for the International Geophysical Year, I took advantage of semiautomatic
infraredgas analyzers which had become commercially available. None of them had been used
to measure atmospheric CO2 precisely, but at least one model seemed likely to be capable ofdoing so. After testing this one, I was able to purchase several, including one unit for theMauna Loa Observatory, one for Antarctica, one to be put on a ship, and one for my laboratory in La Jolla. They had to be calibrated, and for this purpose I built a new and more precise
manometer.This manometer was completed in 1959; it is still the basis of calibrating the gas
analyzers in my program and since 1975 has been the primary basis for calibrating atmospheric CO2analyzers internationally.
At the close of the International Geophysical Year in 1959, it became clear that thegathering of data to fulfill Dr. Revelle's benchmark study should not be shut down and started
up again only after 10 to 20 years, as he had first suggested. Especially the data from theMauna Loa Observatory and the South Pole showed interesting features never seen before in
any CO2 data. These became more and more interesting as the records became longer. A
clearly marked seasonal oscillation had shownup in the data from the Mauna Loa Observatory
in the first year of uninterrupted measurements, beginning in the final months of 1958 andextending through 1959, as shown in Fig. 3. We know now that a similar cycle appears everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Thus, it seems astounding that this cycle was never clearlyseen in earlier measurements, since the methods available in the 19th century were alreadyadequateto show it. The times of fall and rise in CO2corresponded to the expectationsof whenplants absorb CO2 during the active growing season, and release it through decay processes,
as de Saussure had anticipated a century and a half earlier. As indicated in Table 3, the spatial
variations in CO2, even when the seasonal cycle was taken into account, were much smaller
than earlier 20th century data had indicated.
An increasein atmosphericCO2concentrationfrom year to year,already hinted at by dataobtainedduringthe InternationalGeophysicalYear,became ever more clearlyseen as the records
at the Mauna Loa Observatory and elsewhere became longer. By 1963 the average rate ofincreasewas well enough establishedby these data to be compared with the rate of CO2 injection into the air by fossil fuel combustion.The data showedthat the fractionof fossil-fuel-derived
CO2which apparently remains in the air was about 50%. This fraction has remained nearly thesame up to the present time, suggesting a steady mechanism for its removal from the air. Thismechanismis absorptionby the oceans,the same mechanismthat Callendarhad describedin the
1930s,but had then questioned because the existingCO2data appearedto disproveit.
I should not, however, imply that the removal rate has remained perfectly steady. Let us72

now turn to a consideration of the entire record of atmospheric CO2 for the Mauna Loa
Observatory, from the first measurements in 1958 until early this year (1993). Interannual
variations in the rate of rise of CO2 are quite clearly evident in the record, and seem to becaused by natural oscillations that do not affect the average fraction of CO2remaining in the
air from fossil-fuel combustion on longer time scales. The accompanying series of diagrams
serves to illustrate this.
The first of these is a plot of monthly data, shownby dots in Fig. 4. The seasonal cycle,
as shown previously just for 1958 and 1959, is clearly seen every year, superimposed on thelong-term rise. The average cycle, combined with the rise, is shownby a smooth curve throughthe data. The seasonal cycle is obviously quite regular, since the dots and the curve agree
closely. If the,average seasonal cycle is removed from both the data and from the curve, thus
"seasonally adjusting" the data, the long-term trend in CO2 is seen more clearly, as in Fig. 5.
To compare this rising trend with the amount of CO2injected into the air by fuel combustion, I have calculated the amount of CO2 injected each year and summed it with all
amounts injectedearlier.In this way I obtain the cumulativeincrease shownin Fig. 6. The units
are gigatonsof carbon contained in CO2, where one gigaton is equal to a thousand million metric tons. As indicated, about 80 gigatons were released up to 1959, rising to 230 gigatons in
1993. By adjusting the plotting scale, this curve can be compared to the previous plot of theseasonally adjusted atmospheric CO2 data. When this is done (see Fig. 7), the patterns of therise in CO2and of fossil-fuel CO2emissions are seen to be remarkably similar. This comparison is one of the most convincingindicators that the rise in atmosphericCO2is closely related
to the injection of CO2 from fossil fuels.
Another interesting feature of the Mauna Loa record is seen in the previous plot of theactual monthly data (see again Fig. 4). The seasonal cycle is seen to be larger in the latter partof the record than in the earlier part by about 15%. This increase is probably not entirely aresult of any single cause, but the main reason is likely to be that the growth rate of plants has
MAUNA LOA OBSERVATORY,

1958-59

DAILY AVERAGE CARBON 0 IOX IDE CONCENTRATION
321
320
319
,70

o. 318
•

z 317
O
cc

•

c

••

.

316

?? •
••

z 315
U
z 314
U

.

11, •

.

"4
.

.1•

313

• ••
•

UU
312
311

1958

vrnn

1959

Figure 3 Daily average measured concentrationof CO2 in air at the Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii,
during the first two years of sampling at this station. Concentration
is expressed in ppm by volume.

measured73

increased since 1958. Perhaps this has occurred because the growing season of plants on landhas become longer or because of improvements in agriculture, but part of the reason may bethat the plants are responding to the increase in atmospheric CO2, which has risen 13% since1959. If so, this is a fulfillment of the original suggestion of Senebier that plants grow better
when they are supplied with more fixed air, as CO2 was known in the 18th century.
A close look at the comparison of seasonally adjusted CO2 data to the curve for fossil
fuel emissions (Fig. 7) shows that the actual CO2 data tend to migrate from above to below thefossil-fuel curve and back every few years. To see this pattern better, I show in Fig. 8 a plot of
the difference between the two curves, in effect what the seasonally adjusted CO2 record would
have looked like if burning of fossil fuels had not caused the CO2 to increase year after year. I
call this a CO2 "anomaly." The vertical scale is expanded in the plot to see the fluctuating pattern of the anomaly more distinctly. The times when the CO2 anomaly was rising correspondgenerally to times when large changes in weather have occurred in connection with a tropicalphenomenon called El Nirio. The times of the latter are shown by vertical arrows. The same
patterns are seen globally in CO2 records from near the North Pole to the.South Pole. Processes
involving both oceans and vegetation contribute to the oscillations but appear to do so in opposite ways, that is, the exchange of CO2 between the air and the oceans oppose variations in
uptake and release of CO2 by plants on land. Thus, even larger CO2 oscillations would haveoccurred during El Nirio events if growing plants alone had caused the patterns.
I do not have time to describe many additional details about how atmospheric CO2 measurements may help us to understand the cycling of carbon in nature. Thus, I now come to the

MAUNA LOA OBSERVATORY,HAWAIIMONTHLY AVERAGE CARBON OIOXIOE CONCENTRATION

MLO- 122

360

355

350

395

z

310

CC CC
335
0 330
(-1
O
325

320

315

310

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74
76
YEAR

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

Figure 4 The concentrationof CO2 in air, in ppm, at the Mauna Loa Observatory from 1958 to 1993. Monthly averages are shown as solid dots. A smooth curve indicates the seasonal cycle superimposedon a long-term upward
trend.

74

MAUNA LOA OBSERVATORYHANOI IMONTHLY AVERAGE CARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

MLO- 122/*,‘

z360 355 350 395 390 335
330
O

325

.0.2/

320

315

310

58

Figure

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76
YEAR

5 The same plot as Figure 4, except that the seasonal

CUMULATIVE

CO2 RELEASEFROM FOSSIL

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

cycle is removed.

FUEL COMBUSTION

260

IinI

mi(1in

76
YEAR

78

in 11111

290

220

200

z 180
CD

II
160
Li
I—
L° 140

120

100

80

60

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

Figure 6 A plot of carbon in the fossil fuel that has been released to the atmosphere, expressed in gigatons (thousands of millions of metric tons): Amounts are cumulative, i.e., the amount for each year includes all of the previously released carbon.
close of my lecture.

75

Concluding

Remarks

I have traced the history
centuries,

of carbon

dioxidemeasurementsfrom the time of its first discovery

about my own investigationsof CO2 in the atmosphere.

otheratmosphericscientists

have studied

measurements

are coming

There

did after the vigorous
the Earth's

now from

is no likelihoodcarbonstudies

cycle,MAUNA LOR OATH

CO2 during

studiesthat the study

1950s. AfterI should

CUMULATIVE

mention,the past 30 years.

two and a half

however,Somemainlythat manyof the very bestin Japan.

Thereis muchof it will be as interesting

FOSS ILCONSTANT AIRBORNE FRACTION FROM 1959

of nearlythat I have talkedof CO2 will slow downof the last century.

and muchover a period

to the earlyFUELin the next few years

more that will be learned
as what we have already

as it
about

learned.

CURVE

TO 1986

MLO-122

360

355

350

r_ 395
z

390

cc cc
335

z ce
UJ

330

cz,
325

320

315

310

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76
YEAR

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

Figure 7 A comparison of the cumulative increase in carbon released by fossil fuel (shown in Figure 6) with theseasonally adjusted rise in atmospheric CO2 at the Mauna Loa Observatory (shown in Figure 5).
MAUNA LOR OBSERVATORY,HAWAII

CO2 ANOMALY. MONTHLYAVERAGES

MLO-122

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-3.0

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74
76
YEAR

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80

82

8i

Figure 8 A plot of the anomaly in atmospheric
CO2 concentration
at the Maunathe difference between two plots. Arrows denote El Nitio occurrences.

76

86

88

90

Loa Observatory,

92
expressedbyMajor Publications
Dr. Charles D. Keeling
ArticlesDole, M., C.D. Keeling, and D.G. Rose. "The Pile Irradiation of Polyethylene."J. American
Chemical Society,76 (1954), 4304-4311.
Keeling, C.D. and M. Dole. "A Viscometer for Solutions of High Polymers." J. Polymer
Science, 14 (1954), 105-111.
Keeling, C.D. "The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxidein Rural Areas." Geochimica et CosmochimicaActa, 13 (1958), 322-334.
—. "Effect of Local Environment on the Isotopic Enrichment in Plants." ComitatoNazionale
per L'Energia Nucleare, Laboratorio di Geologia Nucleare Pisa, (1960) 214-215.
—. "The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere."
Tellus,12 (1960), 200-203.
—. "The Concentration and Isotopic Abundances of Carbon Dioxide in the Rural and MarineAir." Geochimica et CosmochimicaActa, 24 (1961), 277-298.
—. "A Mechanism for Cyclic Enrichment of Carbon-12 by TerrestrialPlants." Geochimica et
CosmochimicaActa, 24 (1961), 299-313.
Craig, H. and C.D. Keeling. "The Effects of Atmospheric NO2 on the Measured Isotopic
Composition of CO2."Geochimica et CosmochimicaActa, 24 (1963), 549-551.
Bolin, B. and C.D. Keeling. "Large-Scale Atmospheric Mixing as Deduced from the Seasonaland Meridional Variations of Carbon Dioxide." J. Geophys.Res., 68 (1963), 3899-3920.
Revelle, R. (Chairman), W. Broecker, H. Craig, C.D. Keeling, and J. Smagorinsky.
"Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide." Report of the EnvironmentalPollution Panel President's
Advisory Committee3.The White House, November 1965,111-11.
Pales, J.C. and C.D. Keeling. "The Concentration of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in Hawaii."
J. Geophys.Res., 70 (1965), 6053-6076.
Brown, C.W. and C.D. Keeling. "The Concentration of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in
Antarctica."J. Geophys.Res., 70 (1965), 6077-6085.
Keeling, C.D., N.W.Rakestraw,and L.S. Waterman."Carbon Dioxide in Surface Waters of the
Pacific Ocean; 1. Measurements of the Distribution." J. Geophys. Res., 70 (1965),
6087-6097.
C.D. Keeling. "Carbon Dioxide in Surface Waters of the Pacific Ocean; 2. Calculation of the
Exchange with the Atmosphere."J. Geophys. Res., 70 (1965), 6099-6102.
Keeling, C.D. and B. Bolin. "The Simultaneous Use of Chemical Tracers in Oceanic Studies;
I. General Theory of Reservoir Models." Tellus, 19, (1967), 566-581.
Keeling, C.D. and B. Bolin. "The Simultaneous Use of Chemical Tracers in Oceanic Studies
II. A Three-Reservoir Model of the North and South Pacific Oceans." Tellus, 20 (1968),
17-54.
Keeling, C.D., T.B. Harris, and E.M. Wilkins. "Concentrationof AtmosphericCarbon Dioxide
at 500 and 700 Millibars." J. Geophys.Res., 73 (1968), 4511-4528.

77

Keeling, C.D. and L.S. Waterman. "Carbon Dioxide in Surface Ocean Waters; 3.
Measurements on Lusiad Expedition 1962-3." J. Geophys. Res., 73 (1968), 4529-4541.
Keeling, C.D. "Carbon Dioxide in Surface Ocean Waters; 4. Global Distribution."J. Geophys.
Res., 73 (1968), 4543-4553.
— . "Is Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Changing Man's Environment?" Proceedings of theAmerican Philosophical Society, 114 (1970), 10-17.
— . "A Chemist Thinks about the Future." Professor's Inaugural Lecture, May 29, 1969.
Archivesof Environmental Health, 20 (1970), 764-777.
Multiple Authorship. Man's Impact on the Global Environment. Cambridge, Massachusetts:
The MIT Press, 1970.(Principallyresponsiblefor Section 1.2.1"Carbon Dioxide", 46-55).
Keeling, C.D. "Industrial Production of Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuels and Limestone."
Tellus,25 (1970),174-198.
— . "The Carbon Dioxide Cycle: Reservoir Models to Depict the Exchange of Atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide with the Oceans and Land Plants". In Chemistryof the LowerAtmosphere,
edited by S. I. Radsool. New York: Plenum Press, 1973, 251-329.
Ekdahl, C.A., Jr., and C.D. Keeling. "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Radiocarbon in the
Natural Carbon Cycle: I. Quantitative Deductions from the Records of Mauna Loa
Observatoryand at the South Pole." In Carbon and the Biosphere, Brookhaven Symposiumin Biology No.24, edited by G.M. Woodwelland E.V. Pecan. United States Atomic Energy
Commission, 1973, 51-85.
Bacastow,R. and C.D. Keeling. "AtmosphericCarbon Dioxide and Radiocarbonin the Natural
Carbon Cycle: II. Changes A.D. 1700 to 2070 as Deduced from a Geochemical Model." In
Carbon and the Biosphere, Brookhaven Symposium in Biology No.24, edited by G.M.
Woodwelland E.V. Pecan. United States Atomic Energy Commission, 1973, 86-135.
Multiple Authorship. "Carbon Dioxide Processes." In The Physical Basis of Climate andClimate Modeling. GARP Publication Series No.16, International Council of ScientificUnions1975, 64-66.
Keeling, C.D., R.B. Bacastow, A.E. Bainbridge, C.A. Ekdahl, Jr., P.R. Guenther, L.S.
Waterman, and J.F.S. Chin. "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Variations at Mauna Loa
Observatory,Hawaii." Tellus,28 (1976), 538-551.
Keeling, C.D., J.A. Adams, Jr., C.A. Ekdahl, Jr., and P.R. Guenther "Atmospheric Carbon
Dioxide Variationsat the South Pole." Tellus,28 (1976), 552-564.
Keeling, C.D. and R.B. Bacastow. "Impact of Industrial Gases on Climate." Energy andClimate,Report of Panel on Energy and Climate R. Revelle, Chairman, National Academyof Sciences, Washington D.C., 1977, 72-95.
Machta, L., K. Hanson, and C. D. Keeling. "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Some
Interpretations." In The Fate of Fossil Fuel CO2 in the Oceans, edited by N.R. Andersen
and A. Malahoff, Office of Naval Research Symposium, 1977, 131-144.
Keeling, C.D. "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide in the 19th Century."Science, 202 (1978), 1109.
— . "The Influence of Mauna Loa Observatory on the Development of Atmospheric CO2
Research." Mauna Loa Observatory 20th Anniversary Report, edited by J. Miller. National
Oceanographicand Atmospheric Administration, Special Report (1978), 36-54.

78

Bacastow,R. and C.D. Keeling. "Models to Predict Future AtmosphericCO2Concentrations."
Workshopon the Global Effectsof Carbon Dioxidefrom Fossil Fuels, edited by W.P. Elliot
and L. Machta, United States Department of Energy, 1979,72-90.
Lowe, D.C., P.R. Guenther, and C.D. Keeling. "The Concentration of Atmospheric Carbon
Dioxide at Baring Head, New Zealand." Tellus, 31 (1979), 58-67.
Keeling, C.D., W.G. Mook, and P. P. Tans. "Recent Trends in the 13C/12CRatio of
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide."Nature, 277 (1979),121-123.
Keeling, C.D. "The Seuss Effect: Carbon-13—Carbon-14Interrelations." Environmental
International, 2 (1979), 229-300.
Keeling, C.D., R.B. Bacastow, and P.P. Tans. "Predicted Shift in the 13C/12CRatio of
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide." Geophys.Res.Letters,7, (1980), 505-508.
Bacastow, J.A. Adams, C.D. Keeling, D.J. Moss, T.P. Whorf, and C.S. Wong. "Atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide, the Southern Oscillation and the Weak 1975 El Nirio." Science, 210(1980), 66-68.
Keeling, C.D. "The Oceans and Biosphere as Future Sinks for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide."
In Interaction of Energy and Climate, edited by W. Bach, J. Pankrath, and J. Williams.
Boston: D. Reidel, 1980,129-147.
Weiss, RE, C.D. Keeling, and H. Craig. "The Determination of TroposphericNitrous Oxide."
J. Geophys.Res., 86 (1981) 7197-7202.
Bolin, B., A. Bjorkstrom, C.D. Keeling, R. Bacastow, and U. Steigenthaler.Scope 16: Carbon
Cycle Modeling. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1981,1-28.
Multiple Authorship. Scope 16: Carbon Cycle Modeling. New York: John Wiley & Sons,
1981,81-101 and 86-94.
Bacastow, R.B. and C. D. Keeling. "Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration and
Observed Airborne Fraction." Scope 16: Carbon Cycle Modeling. New York: John Wiley& Sons, 1981,103-112.
Bacastow, R.B. and C. D. Keeling. "Hemispheric Airborne Fractions Difference and theHemispheric Exchange Time." Scope 16: Carbon Cycle Modeling. New York, John Wiley& Sons, 1981,241-246.
Bacastow, R.B. and C. D. Keeling. "Pioneer Effect Correction to the Observed Airborne
Fraction." Scope 16: Carbon Cycle Modeling. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1981,
247-248.
Bacastow, R.B. and C.D. Keeling. "Atmospheric CO2 and the Southern Oscillation: Effects
Associated with Recent El Nirio Events." In papers presented at the WMO/ICSI/UNEF
Scientific Conference on Analysis and Interpretation of Atmospheric CO2 Data, World
Meteorological Organization Geneva, Switzerland, 1981,109-111.
Keeling, C.D. "The Oceans and Terrestrial Biosphere as Future Sinks for Fossil Fuel CO2."
ConferenceProceedings, No. 82. New York: American Institute of Physics, 1982,47-82 .
Griffith,D.W.T.,C.D. Keeling, J.A. Adams, P.R. Guenther, and R.B. Bacastow. "Calculationsof Carrier Gas Effects in Non-Dispersive Infrared Analysers: II. Comparisons with
Experiment." Tellus,34 (1982), 385-397.
Weiss, RE, R.A. Jahnke, and C.D. Keeling. "Seasonal Effects of Temperatureand Salinity on

79

the Partial Pressure of Carbon Dioxide in Seawater."Nature, 300 (1982), 511-513.
Keeling, C.D., R.B. Bacastow,and T.P Whorf. "Measurements of the Concentration of Carbon
Dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii." Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982, edited byWilliam C. Clark. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1982, 377-385.
Keeling, C.D. "The Global Carbon Cycle: What We Know and Could Know from
Atmospheric, Biospheric and Oceanic Observations." In Proceedings: Carbon Dioxide
Research Conference: Carbon Dioxide, Science and Consensus, U.S. Department ofEnergy, 1982, 11.3-11.62.CONF-820970, available from National Technical Information
Service, Springfield, Virginia.
Mook, W.G., M. Koopmans, A.F. Carter, and C.D. Keeling. 'Seasonal Latitudinal and Secular
Variations in the Abundance and Isotropic Rations of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide; 1.
Results from Land Stations."J. Geophys.Res., 88 (1983), 10915-10933.
Keeling, C.D. and W.G. Mook. "Sources and Sinks of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Deduced
from 13C/12CRatio Measurements." Extended abstract for symposium, The Scientific
Application of Baseline Observations of Atmospheric Composition, Aspendale Australia,
November 7-9, 1984, 4.
Mook, W.G. and C.D. Keeling. "Carbon-13 in Atmospheric CO2." 3. Arbeitstagung Isotropein der Nature, 84, 237-247.15-18, 1983,Leipzig, DDR, Zfi. Mitteilungen (Zentralinstitut
fiir Isotropen and Strahlenforschung, Leipzig).
Keeling, C.D., A.F. Carter, and W.G. Mook. "Seasonal Latitudinal and Secular Variationsin
the Abundance and Isotopic Ratios of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide; 2. Results from
Oceanographic Cruises in the Tropical Pacific Ocean." J. Geophys. Res., 89 (1984),
4615-4628.
Keeling,C.D. "Atmosphericand OceanographicMeasurementsNeeded for the Establishmentof
a Database for Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuels." In The Potential Effects of Carbon
Dioxide-InducedClimatic Changes in Alaska. The Proceedingsof a Conference, Fairbanks,
Alaska April 7-8, 1982.School of Agricultureand Land Resources Management,Universityof Alaska, Fairbanks,MiscellaneousPublications(1984), 11-22; 83-1.
Bacastow,R.B., C.D. Keeling, and T.P.Whorf. "Seasonal Amplitude Increase in Atmospheric
CO2 Concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, 1959-1982." J. Geophys. Res., 90 (1985),
10529-10540.
Keeling, C.D., T.P.Whorf, C.S. Wong, and R.D. Bellagay."The Concentration of Atmospheric
Carbon Dioxide at Ocean Weather Station 'P' from 1969 to 1981." J. Geophys. Res., 90(1985), 10511-10528.
Elliot, W.P.,L.Machta, and C.D. Keeling. "An Estimate of the Biospheric Contribution to the
Atmospheric CO2 Increase Based on Measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory." J.
Geophys.Res., 90 (1985), 3741-3746.
Tucker, C.J., I.Y. Fung, C.D. Keeling, and R. H. Gammon. "Relationship Between
Atmospheric CO2 Variations and a Satellite-Derived Vegetation Index." Nature, 319(1985), 195-199.
Keeling. C.D. and R. Revelle. "Effects of El Nitio/Southern Oscillation on the AtmosphericContent of Carbon Dioxide."Meteoritics, 20 (1985), 437-450.

80

Heimann, M., Keeling C.D., and I. Y. Fung. "Simulating the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Distribution with a Three-Dimensional Tracer Model." In The Changing Cycle of Carbon ,A Global Analysis, edited by John R. Trabalka and David E. Reichle. New York: SpringerVerlag, 1986,16-49.
Heimann, M. and C.D. Keeling. "Meridional Eddy Diffusion Model of the Transport ofAtmospheric Carbon Dioxide; 1. The Seasonal Carbon Cycle over the Tropical Pacific
Ocean." J. Geophys.Res., 91 (1986), 7765-7781.
Heimann, M. and C.D. Keeling. "Meridional Eddy Diffusion Model of the Transport ofAtmospheric Carbon Dioxide; 2. The Mean Annual Carbon Cycle." J. Geophys.Res., 91(1986), 7782-7796.
From. E. and C. D. Keeling. "Reassessment of Late Nineteenth Century Atmospheric Carbon
Dioxide Variations in the Air of Western Europe and the British Isles Based on an
Unpublished Analysis of Contemporary Air Masses by G.S. Callendar." Tellus, 38B(1986), 87-105.
Kohlmaier,G.H., E. Sire, A. Janacek, C.D. Keeling, S.C. Piper, and R. Revelle. "Modeling the
Seasonal Contribution of a CO2 Fertilization Effect of the Terrestrial Vegetation to the
Amplitude Increase in AtmosphericCO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory." Tellus,41B (1989),
487-510.
Keeling, C.D., R.B. Bacastow, A.F. Carter, S.C. Piper, T.F.Whorf, M. Heimann, W.G.Mook,
and H. Roeloffzen. "A Three-DimensionalModel of Atmospheric CO2TransportBased on
Observed Winds: 1. Analysis of Observational Data." In Aspects of Climate Variability in
the Pacific and the Western Americas, edited by D.H. Peterson, Washington D .C.:
American Geophysical Union, 1989,165-236.
Heimann,M. and C.D. Keeling. "A Three-DimensionalModel of Atmospheric CO2Transport
Based on Observed Winds: 2. Model Description and Simulated Tracer Experiments." In
Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and Western Americas , edited by D.H.
Peterson. Washington D.C.: American Geophysical Union, 1989,237-275 .
Heimann, M., C.D Keeling, and C.J. Tucker. "A Three-Dimensional Model of Atmospheric
CO2 Transport based on Observed Winds: 3. Seasonal Cycle and Synoptic Time Scale
Variations."In Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and WesternAmericas, edited
by D.H. Peterson. WashingtonD.C.: American Geophysical Union, 1989,277-303.
Keeling, C.D., S.C. Piper, and M. Heimann. "A Three-Dimensional Model of Atmospheric
CO2ITransport Based on Observed Winds: 4. Mean Annual Gradients and Interannual
Variations."In Aspects of Climate Variability in the Pacific and WesternAmericas, edited
by D.H. Peterson. Washington D.C.: American Geophysical Union, 1989,305-363.
Roeloffsen, J.C., W.G. Mook, and C.D. Keeling. "Trends and Variations in Stable Carbon
Isotopes of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide." In Stable Isotopes in Plant Nutrition , andEnvironmental Studies. Proceedings of an International Symposium on the use of Stable
Isotopes in Plant Nutrition, Soil Fertility and Environmental Studies, Vienna, Austria, 1-5
October, 1990,601-618.

81Supplemental List
Keeling, C.D. "Measurements of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere." National Academy of
Sciences, IGY Bulletin, 38 (1960), 8-11.
Multiple Authorship. "Implications of Rising Carbon Dioxide Content of the Atmosphere."
Conference sponsored by the Conservation Foundation, New York, 1963.
Waterman, S.L. "Carbon Dioxide in Surface Waters."Nature, 205 (1965), 1099-1100.
Wong, A.C.S. "Quantitative Analysis of Total Carbon Dioxide in Sea Water: A New
Extraction Method." Deep-Sea Research, 17, 9-17.
Keeling, C.D. "Atmosphere-Zone of Aeration Interactions." Working Paper for the Panel on
Carbon Isotopes in Subsurface Hydrology and the Role of Paleo-Climates in Their
Interpretation, Vienna, 1970.
Multiple Authorship. "Report to the World Meteorological Organization on Station Networks
for World-Wide Pollutants." Produced by the Commission for Air Chemistry andRadioactivity (CACR) of the International Association of Meteorology and AtmosphericPhysics (IAMAP) of IUGG 1970.
Keeling, C.D. Marine Technician's Handbook, Instructions for Taking Samples on Board
Ship: Carbon Dioxide Project. Institute of Marine Resources, University of California at
San Diego,1970, 16.
Freyer, H.D., D. Gates, K.J. Hanson, C.D. Keeling, G.I. Pearman, J. Royer, S.H. Schneider,and M. Stuiver. "The Carbon Dioxide Problem. A Review of the Present State ofKnowledge."Research Aspectsof AtmosphericCarbon Dioxide, Proceedingsof the WMO
Informal Meeting of Experts, Boulder, Colorado, October 3-7, 1978, 13.
Woodwell, G.M., G.J. Macdonald, R. Revelle, and C.D. Keeling. "The Carbon Dioxide
Problem: Implications for Policy in the Management of Energy and Other Resources."
Synthetic Fuel Hearings before the Committee on Governmental Affaires, United States
Senate, 96th Congress, July 17-20, 1979, 8.
Bacastow, R.B., C.D. Keeling, and T.P.Whorf. "Is the Biosphere Currently a Net Source or
Sink for Fossil Fuel CO2?" Carbon Dioxide Effects Research and Assessment Program
019; Global Dynamics of Biospheric Carbon, edited by S. Brown. Proceedings of a
Symposium, Bloomington, Indiana, August 17, 1981. National Technical Information
Service, Springfield, Virginia, 1981, 140.
Keeling, C.D. and R. J. Cicerone. "Preface" (to Bern Symposium) J. Geophys. Res., 88/1257(repeated3579, 6843) (1983).
Bacastow, R.B., C.D. Keeling, and T.P. Whorf. "Seasonal Amplitude in Atmospheric CO2
Concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, 1959-80." In papers presented at the
WMO/ICSU/UNEP Scientific Conference on Analysis and Interpretation of Atmospheric
CO2Data. World Meteorological Organization,Geneva, Switzerland, 1981, 169-176.
Bacastow, R.B., C.D. Keeling, T.P. Whorf, and C.S. Wong. "Seasonal Amplitude in
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration at Canadian Weather Station P, 1970-1980." In papers
presented at the WMO/ICSU/UNEP ScientificConference on Analysis and Interpretationof Atmospheric CO2 Data. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva,
Switzerland.1981, 163-168.

82

Keeling,

C.D. and R. Revelle. "Effects of El Nifio/Southern

Oscillation

Content of Carbon Dioxide." Paper presented at the International
Scientific Program, Paris, France. September
WMO/TD
Heimann,

17-21, 1984. World Publication

Series No . 4,

M., C.D. Keeling, and W.G. Mook. "A Three-Dimensional
Basedon Observed

Atmospheric

CarbonKanderstag,

Switzerland,

Dioxide—Its

CarbonKanderstag,

Switzerland,

Dioxide—Its

Sinks and Global

CO2 Transport

Winds; 2. Analysis
Sources,

Transport , symposiuminModel of Atmosphericof the Seasonal

Cycle of CO2 ." In
inand R.A. Houghton.

"A Three-Dimensional

Model

of

Based on Observed Winds; 3. Analysis of the Mean Annualof CO2. In Atmospheric

Carbonsymposium

Switzerland,in Kanderstag,

T.P. and C.D. Keeling.

and Model ." In

Sinks and Global Transport , symposium

Transport,
Hemisphere.

Data

2-6, 1985, 10-17.

Gradients
Whorf,

Model of Atmospheric

2-6, 1985, 10-17.

September

C.D., M. Heimann,

Atmospheric

1. Observationaland C.J. Tucker. "A Three-Dimensional

Based on Observed

AtmosphericWinds;

Sources,

September

M., C.D. Keeling,

CO2 Transport

Keeling,

at the TOGA

No. 65, 1985, 38-50.

CO2 Transport

Heimann,on the AtmosphericConference

Seasonal

Dioxide—Its

Amplitude

Scripps Institution of Oceanography,

September

Sources , Sinks and Global
2-6, 1985 , 10-17.

Variations

in CO2 in the Northern

La Jolla, California , 1992, 3.

83

Profile

The World Conservation

Union* (IUCN)

History
1948

1961

1971

1980

1991
1992

* Formerly

IUCN's predecessor founded by the government of France, the United Nations
Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and Ligue Suisse pourla Protection de la Nature.
IUCN's "Morges Manifesto" issued. The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) founded togenerate funds for conservation.
The Ramsar Convention (Wetlands of International Importance) established. IUCN
hosts secretariat.
"World Conservation Strategy" launched by IUCN , in partnership with WWF andUNEP.
"Caring for the Earth" launched by the same partnership .
IUCN organized the IVth World Congress on National Parks and Protected Areas, inCaracas, Venezuela.
known as International

Union for Conservationof Nature and Natural

Resources

IUCN—The World Conservation Union is an independent, international membership organization committed to conserving the natural environment for future generations. Established in
1948,IUCN has achieved a leadership role in environmental conservation by offering practical solutionsand policies based on results of scientific monitoring and analysis and field experience. The organizationalso activelydisseminatesimportant knowledge about the sustainable
use of the World's natural resources. Its 773 members include 62 sovereign states, some 100
governmental agencies, and more than 600 nongovernmental organizations and affiliates.
IUCN uses this influential network to help conserve biological diversity and promote theappropriate and wise utilization of global resources. These efforts are guided by the central
idea that human society should develop in harmony with nature.
IUCN's achievements include developing strategies for conserving the global environment; playing a major role in the development and operation of international treaties and legislation, such as those resulting from the Biodiversity,the Ramsar (wetlands) and the World
Heritage (natural sites) conventions; planning and executingprojects in cooperation with individual governments; setting up and managing comprehensive environmental databases; andproducing an extensive series of authoritative scientific, technical and practical publications
such as the Red Data Books, World Conservation Strategy and Caring for the Earth. Thus,
IUCN has attained outstanding results in a wide range of fields.
IUCN is headquartered in Switzerland. Dr. David McDowell is presently the director
general, and Sir Shridath Ramphal is the president.

84EssayThe

Convention
An Ideaon Biological

Whose
Dr. Jeffrey

Time

Has

Diversity:
Come

A. McNeely

Chief Scientist,

IUCN

March 1997
Introduction
The 1992 United Nations Conferenceon Environment and Development,the "Earth Summit,"
put biological diversity on the international agenda by signing the Convention on Biological
Diversity (CBD). The idea of such a convention began at the Third World Congress on
National Parks, held in Bali, Indonesia, in October 1982,and was developedfurther by IUCN's
Environmental Law Centre over the following several years. In August 1988, the UN
Environment Programme (UNEP) Executive Director Mustapha Tolba convened a high-level
panel of experts to advise him on whether a global biodiversity conventionwas timely and, if
so, what it should include. UNEP then convened a series of intergovernmental meetings todevelop the CBD. Following several years of negotiations, the CBD was signed at Rio deJaneiro, entered into force at the end of 1993and has now been ratifiedby more than 165 countries.
The objectives of the CBD are: "the conservationof biological diversity,the sustainable
use of its components and the fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising out of utilization ofgenetic resources." The convention thus covers ecological, economic, and social aspects of
biodiversity.
This article will review progress to date in implementing the CBD. Progress can beassessed in two main ways: by considering the state and changes in biodiversity components(i.e. genes, species, and ecosystems); and by measuring the effectivenessof measures taken to
implement the CBD. It can be argued that only by measuring the former can we evaluate thelatter, and since the entry into force of the CBD, many more site-specific data are becoming
available.But these data are not particularlyuseful at the national or higher levels. Considering
the high cost of collecting comprehensive information for assessing and monitoring changes
in biodiversity components,the focus in the near term must be on the second approach: assessing the measures taken to implement the CBD.
Progress in implementing the convention
In order to compile information about how the CBD is being implemented, IUCN sent a questionnaire to all parties to the CBD. With over 80 responses (nearly 50% of the parties), several

85

trends are very clear.
• Ninety-three percent of respondents have increased access to information since the entry
into force of the CBD and 67% have used information provided through the CBD todevelop their activities.
• Ninety-one percent have prepared or are preparing a national biodiversity strategyor action

•

•

•
•

•

•
•

•

•

•
•
•

86

plan (and 90% have developed other strategies or plans related to biodiversity issues); however,biodiversityhas been incorporated only somewhat in most forest, agricultural, marine,
and protected area strategies.
Sixty-four percent have undertaken a systematic review of existing biodiversity-related
institutions in response to ratifying the CBD and nearly two-thirds of the countries havereviewed their legislation, though only half of the countries consider their biodiversityrelated legal and institutional framework to be sufficientand just 23% have enacted specificlegislation on access to genetic resources and benefit-sharing.
Seventy-ninepercent have identified important ecosystems and habitats, at least partly inresponse to the CBD; 61% have strengthened measures for the conservation and sustainable use of these ecosystems and habitats since ratificationof the CBD, mostly in protectedareas.
Sixty percent have developed and applied new approaches to sustainable forest management, most of which are at least partially taken in response to the CBD.
Regarding wild .biodiversity, 68% have carried out systematic inventories at the species
level and 63% have instituted specific measures for their conservation and sustainableuse,
while 55% have carried out systematic identificationof domesticated biodiversity,but only
39% have implemented specific measures for their conservation and sustainable use.
Sixty-seven percent have systematicallyidentified threatened components of biodiversity
and 59% have implemented specific measures for their conservation and sustainable use(78% of these measures were taken at least partially in response to the CBD).
Sixty-threepercent have been able at least to begin systematicallyidentifying threats to biodiversity.
Just 30% have developed incentives for implementing CBD measures, while slightly more
have sought to identify and eliminate disincentives. Valuation exercises are also coming
along slowly, with just 29% of countries having carried out valuation studies.
Forty-three percent of the countries have enhanced their capacity for implementing the
CBD since it was ratified and 55% have developed CBD-related projects that contribute to
the alleviation of poverty.
Fifty-nine percent of the countries involve local and indigenous communities in activities
for the implementation of the CBD, but only 38% are implementing the CBD provisions
regarding traditional knowledge.
Thirty-six percent are taking measures to ensure fair and equitable sharing of benefits arising from the use of genetic resources.
Sixty-four percent of the countries are promoting education and awareness about biodiversity.
Nearly half the countries perceive that financial resources for biodiversity conservation

and sustainablefundinguse have increased

is from domestic

since

the CBDwas ratified,thoughmostof this new

sources.

Some critical issues
Equitable sharing of benefits arising from the use of biological resources, one of the threeobjectives of the CBD, is a prerequisite for creating the incentives needed to maintain theearth's biotic wealth. Local benefit-sharing,in particular, has the effect of reducing the opportunity cost of forgoing the option of converting in situ conservation areas to commercial orother uses, such as arable agriculture, pasture or industrial complexes. Our survey indicatesthat more progress is needed in this aspect of the CBD. Benefit-sharing needs to be included
in discussions on technology transfer, the clearing-house mechanism, access to genetic
resources, agriculturalbiodiversity,and intellectualproperty rights. The umbrella under which
all this could shelter should be the incorporation of benefit-sharing measures in the national
biodiversity strategies and action plans governmentsare preparing.
Transfer of technologies relevant for the conservation and sustainable use of biologicaldiversity continues to be a major area of unfulfilled expectationsof most developingcountries
who are party to the CBD. Technology is an important tool for in situ and ex situ managementof biodiversity.For example,new agriculturaltechnologies have the potential to increase yields
to feed the growing human population while reducing unintended adverse environmental
impacts. Modern biotechnology could provide tools for understanding the living world andthus may greatly aid assessing and monitoring biodiversity at the national, regional, and global
levels. Transfer of relevant technologies will be facilitated and enhanced through the involvement of the private sector in the area of bioprospecting and biosafety in joint ventures withnational institutions or local private sector entities.
The disappointing flow of new and additional financial resources envisaged under
Article 20 of the CBD has been an issue of considerable discussion. At the Earth Summit, thedeveloped countries committed themselves to providing "new and additional" resources tohelp developingcountries achieve sustainabledevelopment.The CBD makes this a legal obligation for biodiversity and the Global Environmental Facility (GEF)—operated by the World
Bank, UNEP, and the UN Development Programme (UNDP)—is intended to be one of themain channels for these new funds. If funds are to be genuinely "new and additional," levelsof support for biodiversity and total aid must be higher than before the CBD entered into force.
The Global Biodiversity Strategy estimated that effective conservation in developing
countries would cost around US$20 billion per year, while current global spending on conservation (all countries) is estimated at US$4.14 billionper year. The average annual commitmentof aid for biodiversity in the period 1987-94 was US$445.75 million. This falls massively
short of what is needed for global conservation. According to Birdlife International,
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, UN, and GEF figures provide noevidence that current levels of aid for biodiversity are "new and additional." The available figures indicate that after a peak in the Earth Summit year of 1992, annual aid levels for biodiversity have been lower than in the pre-GEF period of 1987-90. Non-GEF biodiversity aid
appears to have fallen substantially since 1992.

87

Although donors collectively are not satisfying the "new and additional" obligation,some individual donors do appear to have maintained or increased their bilateral biodiversity
aid budget, as well as making "new" contributions to the GEF. These include Finland,
Germany,the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland. Biodiversity investment varies considerably among donors. The biggest overall aid donors—Japan and the U.S.A.—are among thebiggest donors to conservation.However,Switzerland and Finland, each with a small bilateral
aid program, are among the top five biodiversity funders.
As an umbrella agreement, the CBD is able to address a wide range of important issues.
During its third meeting, the Conference on Parties (COP) reasserted its aspiring role as a
focal point vis-a-visother relevant international instruments and processes, especially on such
issues as forests, sea-bed mining, intellectualproperty rights, agriculture, and indigenous andlocal community affairs. The degree of these interactions and the leadership level adopted by
the COP are variable. Perhaps the issue on which interaction is strongest is agriculture, where
the CBD covered land, water, plant, animal and microbial genetic resources, wildlife, air andclimate, farm inputs, wild sources of food, traditional knowledge, marketing conditions for
agriculturalproducts, land-use pressures, and agroforestry.The COP has staked out a leading
position in the field of agriculturalbiodiversity,taking the opportunity to link concerns regarding biodiversity conservation and sharing of benefits with the mainstream economy, drawing
on balanced attention to the three objectives of the CBD. The COP sent a message to theDecember 1996session of the Food and Agriculture Organization's Commission on Plant andGenetic Resources for Food and Agriculture (PGRFA) to negotiate the revision of theInternationalUndertaking on Plant Genetic Resources in harmony with the CBD. It specified
the COP's willingness to consider a protocol on PGRFA under the CBD.
The COP also produced a communication to the World Intellectual Property
Organization (WIPO) noting the possibility that WIPO may 'recommend international copyright protection for scientific databases. This reflected the concerns of developing countries
that such a measure could interfere with scientific and technical cooperation, create difficulties
in repatriating data and complicate the exercise of the CBD's third objective of equitable benefit-sharing. Even if the COP has yet to articulate agreed areas of concern under the World
Trade Organization (WTO), it could still emerge as a significant influence on the activities ofboth WIPO and WTO.
The COP has also sought to influence intergovernmental discussions on forests toensure that forest biodiversity concerns are addressed.The COP's contributionhere was much
weaker than it could have been. The COP message to the IntergovernmentalPanel on Forests(IPF) coveredanalysis of the underlying causes of biodiversity loss, analysis and mitigation ofhuman impacts on forest biodiversity, economic valuation of biodiversity components, anddevelopmentand use of criteria and indicators. The work program for forest biodiversity will
include developmentof technologies necessaryfor the conservation and sustainable use of forest biodiversity,take an ecosystem approach and incorporate traditional systems of conserving biodiversity in forests. The COP also called for scientific analysis of the ways in whichhuman activities, especially forest management practices, influence biodiversity and soughtways to minimize or mitigate negative influencesarising from such practices.

88

The COP could have been far more assertive in providing guidance to the IPF; perhaps
even suggesting that a protocol under the CBD could obviate any need for a new forests convention. This clearly is not a step governments are yet willing to take. But in any case, strengthening the CBD's relationship to the IPF could have an impact on any decisions regarding
extension of the IPF or the establishment of a similar forum for international debate on forest
issues.
Our conclusion is that although the COP has clearly advanced in opening to otherprocesses, it still has a long way to go until it can become as influential as required to change
processes that have great impact on the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity.
The need for a protocol to address possible dangers of genetically modified organisms
was identified in negotiations prior to the entering into force of the CBD. The need for such abiosafety protocol was discussed by COP-1 and—after heated debate—the process is moving
forward, with a formal report expected at COP-4 in 1998. The negotiation.of the biosafety protocol shows how the COP can handle a highly contentious issue, transforming it into a primarily procedural matter (possibly because no substantive points are yet being discussed). It
is too early to tell whether the biosafety protocol is really a step forward for biodiversity or simply a diversion from much more substantive and urgent issues. It certainly will be somewhat
limited, as the COP has determined that the issue of alien invasive species—a real and immediate threat to biodiversity at gene, species, and ecosystem levels—will not be considered
under the biosafety protocol.
One of the top CBD priorities is for each country to decide for itself what its own priorities are. The mechanism for this is Article 6, on national biodiversity strategies and actionplans, and the integration of the conservation and sustainable use of biological resources into
sectoral and cross-sectoral plans. Some 60 countries are receiving support from the GEF to
prepare their strategies after COP-2 issued a specific decision toward this end. However, thepreparation of strategies risks becoming a somewhat sterile planning exercise, as have othersimilar efforts before them, if governments see it simply as an obstacle to be overcome before
further GEF funds can be assessed. Current indications are that the strategy-formulation
process is moving too rapidly in most countries to involve the critical sectors—agriculture,
forestry, and fisheries—in a productive policy dialog.
Considerable progress can be reported on biodiversity in the seas. COP-2 adopted the
Jakarta Mandate on Marine and Coastal Biodiversity, which provided a checklist covering fiveareas in which parties to the CBD should take actions for conservation and sustainable use inthese habitats:•integrated

marineand coastal

area management;•

marineand coastal

protected

areas;•

sustainable

use of marine•

mariculture;and•alien species.

and coastal

livingresources;

Major international bodies were invited to improve their existing activities and develop

89new actions which promote the conservation and sustainable use of marine and coastal biodiversity, taking into account the recommendations contained in the Jakarta Mandate. A threeyear process will elaborate upon the recommendations for action in the above five areas andpossibly others. To assist in the implementation of the process, the CBD Executive Secretary
will establish a roster of experts and draw upon a wide range of inputs from governments,
intergovernmental organizations and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), and others.
Conclusion
Many people believe that conserving biodiversity and using biological resources sustainably
will benefit all of society. However, conserving biodiversity, using biological resources sustainably and equitably sharing the benefits of such use all involve social costs and benefits thatare borne unevenly across segments of society. Therefore, proper policy action should promote
the equitable sharing of these costs and benefits in ways that improve the well-being of thepoor and weaker sections of society, including local communities, NGOs, the scientific community, industry, and so forth. The CBD offers a unique opportunity for this diverse mixtureof interests to work toward the same broad objectives. The international consensus will often
be difficult to attain unless all sectors of society contribute to the common goals of theConvention on Biological Diversity.

90Lecture

Towards

a Sustainable

By Dr. Martin
Director
1. TheChallenge:

Never before
natureDreamsresources.

proclaimed

in so many

hope

conservation

standingof the fact that the futurecountries,

and development.

systems—theNeverof humanbeforehas there
depends

only known

manifestation

is deteriorating.

Land

degradation,

tion

of climate,

the ever-wideningotheralarming

symptoms

holes,"

on everystatistics

rises

who

sustainablesufferbeen suchfromdevel-

appallinga universal

under-

on our care for the Earthandof life in the universe.
to a flood,

soil loss, desertification,"ozoneare visiblethat UNof millions

civilizations

time as the tide of awarenesspeoplebeen so aware of the need to conserve

has there been so much talk about

for the hundreds

Yet, at the same

to 12 billion

IUCN

by which everybody
can attain a decent quality of life. Neverof state and government
publicly
accepted
the inseparable
link

between

where

General,Never before

the only

poverty, and as the pathway
before have so many heads

its environmental

W. Holdgate

and Reality

have so many people,

and naturalopment,Futuredeforestation,

water
food

side. How can the world

say will be inhabitants

the environmentof Earthevery-

pollution,

perturba-

insecurity,and many

hope to sustain

the 10by the end of the 21st

century?
We are runningout of space—andtime.

2. The Imperative for Action
There are many reasons why national and international action is imperative and urgent.
First, because human misery is being worsened by the deteriorating environment inmany regions. Food production per head of population in sub-Saharan Africa fell during the1970s and 1980s. In the same region, gross national product (GNP) declined by 1.1% perannum in the 1980s. Erosion, salinization, contamination of water supplies, degradation of
pastures, urban encroachment, and pollution reduced land fertility in areas as far apart as China
and the Sahel.
The economic costs of such damage are alarming: at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro
in June 1992, one Eastern European delegate reported that pollution was costing his country
the equivalent of 16% of GNP per annum. The loss of biological diversity, especially as a consequence of deforestation on land and the destruction of coral reefs in the sea, threatens todeprive future generations of medicines and genetic resources before their potential has evenbeen evaluated by science. The destruction of wilderness and wildlife threatens the tourist
industry that is the main source of foreign currency in a number of developing countries,
including some of the poorest African states.

91

The noneconomic costs are also disturbing. Human cultures throughout the world havebeen inspired by the beauties of nature. Artists, poets and writers have enshrined them in great
literature and paintings. Television has brought magnificent spectacles of scenery and wildlife
into the homes of millions of people. Their destructionis bringing spiritual as well as economic
impoverishment.
While governments universallycondemned these trends at the Earth Summit in Rio deJaneiro, they seem incapable of responding at a rate that matches the rates of change. While
there are many real success stories, by which we are rightly heartened, in aggregate they do notcounterbalance the losses. And governments seem unaware of the momentum of current
processes; of the fact that the world is now committed to major changes, even if the policies
and actions that cause them are reversed tonight. Those changes include:• continued human population growth, largely in the poorer developing countries, where up
•

•

•

•

to half the population is under 16 years of age, and where a population doubling isinevitable even if these young people simply reproduce themselves;increasing demands for energy and essential raw materials, because 75% of the world isunderindustrializedand must industrializeif it is to give its increasing populations a decent
quality of life, and create the economic growth and infrastructure essential for population
stabilization;
deforestation and land degradation (desertification)in the tropics, because growing populations need land to cultivate, depend largely on wood for fuel, and are being forced to use
marginal land unsustainably because there is not enough good land for them;ozone layer depletion, because even if chlorofluorocarbons ceased to be made and used
today, their residual time in the atmosphere is so long that it will be decades before theirimpact wanes; andclimate change, because greenhouse gas concentrations are already close to twice preindustrial concentrations, and there seems no way the developing world can industrialize
without some increased use of fossil fuels even if there is an immense improvement inenergy efficiency.This in turn brings a threat of major changes in world ecology and world
agriculture.
These

and other trends—likeseriousin many

regions—are

mentalin origin.

Theysocial,economic,

and politicalthose in air and water

expressed

are symptoms

becoming
There

symptomsof thehuman

aware of an even moreare alreadyalarming

signs

And this willthen follow.

diseasesinisterlinkage—between

populationpressure,and defective
governmental
over into conflict,generating
worse environmental

92

only

are becomingin national

if people

environmental

environ-if nationalandon the groundto the environment.

of environmental

more

and internationalor stabilizedoccur

are not confinedthat a combination

which

but are not primarily

defects

and will only be reversed

global economies
and politics
change.
demand that change, and if governments
Thein the environment,of fundamental

systems

pollution

stressWe areand security.

degradation,

poverty,and institutional
systems
can easily flash
degradationand the spectacleof tens ofthousandsof sufferinglars annuallyless on the cancer

Governments,

preparations,of environmental

and that may cause
Any impartial
convertedrefugees.

on military

to action,

degradation

the wars for whichobservereven in poor

to buy whatthat is quite

they are so busily

must conclude

and the rate of successful

countries,

they perceive
literally

eatingbillionsTheyof dolspend

faraway at their vitals

preparing.

that a new approachactionspend

as security.

must

at least

is urgent.
double.

Rhetoricmust

How is this

be

to be

done?

3. The World Context
The first need is to address the causes of the disease, not the symptoms. That means addressing the socio-econo-political system rather than the environmental damage resulting from its
deficiencies.
That is the weakness of Agenda 21, adopted by the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. It
is excellent in its specification of the actions needed to manage sectors of the environment: toaddress pollution and desertification, to enlist the contributions of all sectors of the community,
and to move forward in a cross-sectoral, integrated way towards sound and sustainable development. But it does not address the world economic and trading systems, the widening gap
between rich and poor nations, the crippling burden of international debt, the corruption andincompetence of government in many countries, and the hemorrhage of the arms race. It also
deals in an evasive and unsatisfactory way with the need to bring human populations into balance with the natural systems that sustain them.
These problems can only be dealt with by new and more effective political and economic development. And that development has to take account of two apparently divergent
trends in today's world.
On the one hand, supranational problems and actions are reducing the autonomy of thenation state. It is clear, for example, that the world's economy depends on the world's ecology,
and that the planet is one linked, environmental system. The threatened disturbance of global
climate through greenhouse gas emissions, largely from the industrialized countries, and theincreased penetration of the stratosphere by damaging ultraviolet radiation as a result of ozone
layer depletion, again caused largely by the developed world, bring this interdependence homeand have provoked international action in response.
A global society is emerging. Many decisions are now taken at the supranational level,
for example, by the Group of Seven, the Council of the European Community or the Group of
77. World trade policy is governed by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)and commodity prices by the various exchanges. New international institutions—like the EarthCouncil and the Commission on Sustainable Development—are being established and existing ones, especially in the UN system, are being strengthened. Law is becoming increasinglyinternational, in the environmental as in other fields. A recent review listed 121 global treaties
and other legal instruments dealing with environmental issues, together with a further 265
agreements at the regional level. Overriding obligations, such as that to safeguard the environment in time of war, are being codified. And while it cannot yet, sadly, claim universal success, the establishment of the peacekeeping role of the United Nations is an indication of the93

world community's reluctance to stand back and allow societies to destroy themselves by military conflict.
The world is also united by modern information technology. People throughout theworld hear of events as they happen. An earthquake, a flood, a governmental crisis or even apresidential haircut can be on almost everyone's television screen while the event is still inprogress. While the media select and distort, they make it difficult for governments to evade,and they have unquestionably built worldwide bonds of human sympathy, which may in turnexert pressure on governments. This has been a principal factor in the rise of the environmental movement.
At the same time, some trends have been towards decentralization. It is increasingly recognized that the care and sustainable use of the environment depend especially on local communities and individuals—farmers, fishermen, foresters, factory workers, consumers—andthe way they exercise individual choices. As a consequence, the development process is beingstood on its head. In place of solutions propounded and imposed by external "experts," withexternal and unfamiliar technology, new approaches involve learning from the poor, decentralization, local community empowerment, local initiatives, and diversity. Development isbeing seen not as a blueprint but a flexible, adaptive learning process. And local groups canoften solve an environmental problem, or sow the seeds of environmental crisis, without central government's knowledge or involvement.
Everybody has heard of the importance of biological diversity. In the development
process, cultural diversity has emerged as a crucial element. What people do depends on theirbeliefs, and these reflect culture, religion and tradition. Working with the grain of culture, andcherishing its adaptive values, is another key to success. And the literal "bottom line" is theindividual. Inspiring, motivating, educating, guiding and empowering people is the ultimate
way to secure sustainable living. We know that this will involve changes in the pattern of
resource use and consumption in developed countries like this one as well as in the developing world. Adopting and pursuing an environmental ethic, nationally, communally and individually, is likely to be the essential foundation for the new approach we must have if we areto cure the global disease. Our patients are people, and they must believe in our treatment.
The response we need must therefore be people-centered and environment-based. It
must be truly integrated, involving all sectors of society and matching action to need: the needsof people and the tolerances of nature. For nature is not all-embracing and endlessly forgiving.
Political choices about development strategies will succeed or fail not only on their popularity
with the electorate, but also on their environmental realism. The world is littered with abandoned installations, eroding farms, saline soils, silted reservoirs and useless factories that testify to the folly of forgetting the limits of nature. And the debt burden that cripples many countries today results, at least in part, from the disastrous promotion of inappropriate technology
by lending agencies who bear no liability for their actions.
Our response to the disease must be a search for a universal cure. It must be globally
linked, but locally applied. The rich, developed countries could just possibly turn their backs
on the rest of the world and use their strengths to maintain their own lifestyles while the poorer
countries disintegrated into famine, desertification and chaos. Such action would be wrong, by94

any moral

code. But the lesson

a disproportionate

burdenis not one we in the rich Northon us to carry

the world's development.
Aristotle"Betweenunequals, equity demands

the economic

summedup the precept

not reciprocity,find easy to accept,

and intellectual
2,000

burdens
years

for it placesof supportingago when

he said,

but proportionality."

4. The Foundations for Successful Action
In 1972, Barbara Ward and Rene Dubos emphasized global interdependence by giving their"background" book for the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment, in
Stockholm, the title Only One Earth. In 1987, the World Commission on Environment andDevelopment added the penetrating comment, "The Earth is one, but the World is not." Theysought a solution in sustainabledevelopment, defined as "development that meets the needs ofthe present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."
Few concepts in recent years have been so widely quoted, and played in aid of so many preconceived ideas, as that of sustainabledevelopment.Some have proposed that it means achieving the highest feasible rate of economic growth without fueling inflation. Some have argued
that it means characterizing the "carrying capacity" of natural resources and constraining
human demands within that capacity (stretched as far as practicable by technology, but ultimately limited by the productivity of a finite ecosystem on a finite Earth, where the Second
Law of Thermodynamics rules.)Much of this debate is, in my view, sterile and pointless. The Roman. Emperor Neroachieved lasting notoriety by fiddling while his city burned about him, and those who divert
themselves with the minutiae of conceptual analysis at this juncture deserve a similarjudgmentfrom history. The essential concept is clear enough, and we have to get down to action on the
ground—actionfor sustainable living.
5. Caring for the Earth: A Strategy for Sustainable Living
In 1980,IUCN joined with the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Wide
Fund for Nature to prepare the World Conservation Strategy.In 1991, the same three organizations published a second volume, Caring for the Earth: A Strategy for Sustainable Living.
This sets out nine basic principles, and 132 specific actions, as medicine for the human disease.
The nine principles are:
1. Respect and care for the community of life. This is the ethical foundation of the whole strategy. There is a duty of care for other people and other forms of life, now and in the future.
Development should not be at the expense of other groups or later generations.
2. Improve the quality of human life. This is the real aim of development—to enable humanbeings to realize their potential, build self-confidence and lead lives of dignity and fulfillment. Economic growth is an important component of development, but it should not be agoal in itself.
3. Conserve the Earth's vitality and diversity. Natural systems keep the planet fit for life,
shape climate, cleanse air and water, regulate water flow, recycle essential elements, create
and regenerate soil, and enable ecosystems to renew themselves. The genetic diversity of95

nature4.

is the basis

Minimize

for continuing

the depletionon nonrenewable

5.

resources.

like minerals,

Our industrialized

resourcesindustrialize.
by using

switching

to renewable

substitutes

wherepossible.

carrying

capacity.

Althoughwithinthe Earth's

to the capacity

impacts

without

duced

by burningening

to causefossilsuchbalancewith nature's

Changepersonal

tainably,
valuestainable

capacitythat bring

Enablecommunities

tive activities

to support
gases

is difficult,
human
and

there

are

life, and with-ozone,

numbersbeor byacid oxides,

stratospheric

humanshouldproduct,pro-

are threat-and lifestyles

intotheir values

the ethic

and alter their behavior.

and discourage

those

that

in lifestylefor living

sus-

Societymust promote

are incompatible

with a sus-

must

be explained

through

Mostof the creativeedu-

information.
to care for their own environments.

of individuals

and citizen's

sustainabledefinition

If they are to implement

way of life. And the need for changes
and public

systemsa particulardependto rise as less-be developed.

and practices.

the new ethic

precisethat deplete

Policies

mustof these

to makeGreenhouseand halocarbons

must reexamine

supportcationnessesfuel,naturaldeterioration.

deterioration.

"life"

of a resourceof the planet's

attitudes

peoplethat

The

dangerous

civilizations

effective

countries

Keep

vital to humanity.

is boundby recycling,

lessof resources

oil, gas and coal. Demand

extended

stand

7.

of nonrenewable

resources

and the source

developed

finite limits

6.

evolutionand groups

groups.

societies

take place

Communities

in localcommunities,

need to be informed

and enabledthat are in tune with local environments,

and produc-

includingresources,busi-

to act to create

culturesand aspi-rations.
8. Provide

a nationalmust develop

9.

framework

national

for integrating

programmes

development

for achieving

and conservation.

sustainability

Governmentsthat involve

all interests

andpromotean integrated
approachtions, and economic
and social

to environmental
management.
Consistentlaws, institupolicies are essential.
The programmemust be adaptive,

continuallyin response

Createredirecting

a globaltainability,

resources

ethic

today

to experience

to develop

sustainably,

betweenIf we are to achieve
all countries.

and to protect

as wellworldwidesustainability—and

endeavor.

and individual

are threatenedsuscoun-in the process.

by collective

as the national

globalLower-income

their environments

and ocean must be safeguarded

at the international

stand to gain fromand new needs.

is self-sufficient.

must be establishedof atmosphereof care applies

nations

No nationa firm alliancetries must be helped
Globalits course

alliance.

levels.

TheAll

if we fail to attain

it.

These

generalprinciples

providelems and to use environmental
specificactions.

suggestthat

the basic

resources

But they will get nowhere

the movement

national

and global

izationI have alreadylevels,frommatching

strategy

logic

for the actions

sustainably.
unlessThey

they are applied

to action

demands

the dual processes

to solve humanthe foundationin the real world.

changes

in approachof internationalization

prob-

for the 132
How?
at local,and decentral-

mentioned.

At the local level, the need is for both environmental

96

neededprovideand cultural

sensitivity.

Any globalstrategy is inevitably generalized. It has to be adapted to the needs and cultures of particularcommunitiesand the capacities of the environment in specific localities—avariant of the familiar statement, "Think globally, act locally." Thus while a development plan demands soundtechnicalsurveyand analysis,in which modern scientificmethods can contributemuch, the subsequent development of an action plan demands great cultural sensitivity and understanding.
This in turn demands a listening ear and the development of solutions through the participation, indeed the leadership, of the people who live on the land. Communities of the rural
poor are often far more sophisticatedthan their rulers in capital cities give them credit for. They
often have detailed knowledge of their environments, even if their records are scientificallyunorthodox. They are able to adjust to change swiftly and on the basis of understanding of the
behavior of the local environment gained over many centuries. They often know the solutions
if they are empowered to carry them out.
Development must respect diversity and cherish it. Over millions of years, the Earth's
ecological systems have developed as a response by living organisms to geological, topographical and climatologicalconditions.Throughout human history,people have adjusted theircultures and lifestylesin the same way.The resulting diversity contains rich and valuable information, which should be the starting point of the development process. The values ,approaches, crops and technologies of other regions and cultures should be transferred onlywith the greatest care and as grafts on the local stock of knowledge.
At the national level, the firstneed is to accept that the role of centralgovernmental institutions and the international agencies that may work with them is an enabling one .
Governments must accept the value of diversity and the need for local leadership in the development of detailed action plans. They must support and empower communities in those
processes. They do, however, have the responsibility for creating the overall framework fordevelopment.
This needs to be attentiveto scale. While some problems must be addressed locally, others demand a national strategy and national infrastructure,including both physical planning ofsettlements,industry,communications and transport, and social instruments such as appropriate land tenure, sound and properly enforced laws, appropriateeconomic measures, education,
information,health care and security.Good developmentis difficultwithout good government .
Some problems—like the management of river basins shared between nations, or ofcoastal seas, or pollution that moves across frontiers—can only be addressed internationally.
Many ecological systems and biological dispersal routes pay no heed to frontiers. Hence,
international cooperation is essential.
Many overarching socioeconomic problems obviously need attention on a global scale.
For example, we need new systems for economic valuation. Present systems tend to undervalue natural resources, especially those used at the local level and outside the formal national
economy.As a result, the decisions made by central and local governments as to which kindsof land use to favor, and which kinds of environment to change, are often defective. The decisions of consumers are also influenced by economic valuations, and if the prices charged for
products do not correctly reflect the costs imposed on the environment in their manufacture oruse, sustainability is undermined. Yet because of the global nature of trading and economic

97

systems,

any changes

to economic

theoryWorld tradingand economic

mechanisms

edge that the burden
is now crippling
more

the ability

sustainable

developedof debt incurredworld,

furthergoods

alliance

be an economic

must

developmentments

dedicated

are needed.

Thosein their use of raw materials

conserving

thus can we have the benefits

to creatingof nonrenewableemphasize

Finally,on whichdevelopment

entific and technicalstructures,

alliance

assistance.

with that in the private

bothhigh tariffs

on theirtrading

The global

for sustainablesystems

for upgrade

and agree-

thoseof indigenous

has been based

new approaches
avoidance

without

its impacts.

that areare imperative.
And

a conse-industrialized
world, is that the consumer
Goods may need to be more durable,
andand refurbishmentof financial

development

and helping

in the Northand wastetechnology

must go far beyond

Official

but the test is whether

tor investment,in theconditions

and we need

Recyclingof modern

In terms

sector.

expertisethedevelopment

and energy,

resources.

the facilities

the global

while

new andby markets

of raw materials.

and if the world

which is almost countercultural
in today's
may need to become
a conserver
society.

advertisingcountries,

schemes

to adopt

controlledexporters

knowl-

development

they will need changing.

Only

officialof suchconsensus.

It is common

countries

prices,into remaining

with the environment,

morequence,societyreview.

lowest-income

commodity

the economies

alliancethat process,

New technologies
are wastefulLowtend to lock themin harmony

do not favorof the world's

paths.

depress

manufactured

need international

also need criticalin the past for often inappropriate

of many

development

and methodology

governments

flow, this assistanceassistanceformulateinfrastructures

createwealththe country

withinratherthan

government-to-government

replacement.
help throughis trivial

comparedis invaluable

in providing

sci-strategies

and develop

infra-

conditions
andthat favor
through

private-secinternational

investment.

6. Caring for the Earth in Practice: The Role of IUCN
The award of the Blue Planet Prize recognizes that IUCN—The International Union forConservation of Nature and Natural Resources, or more briefly, The World Conservation
Union—has had some success in addressing the above problems. I do not want to claim too
much: the fact is that no institution can claim total success in this difficult field, and we need a
new approach if we are to have any prospect of success. But IUCN certainly has the potential
to contribute, and I want to say a few words about why before concluding this lecture.
First, IUCN is preadapted by its structure. Almost uniquely among environmental bodies it is a union of governmental and nongovernmental sectors—of states, state agencies andboth international and national NGOs. It also combines a professional Secretariat (now numbering almost 500 staff worldwide) with voluntary networks. There are now almost 6,000 volunteer experts in the Union's six Commissions. They are drawn from a wide range of professions, countries, institutions and organizations, not all of them IUCN members. They arelinked by a common commitment to conservation.
This is a model for the cross-sectoral approach the world community demanded at the
Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. We need alliances of governments, government agencies andthe nongovernmental sector, because only by pooling the skills and enthusiasm of all can we98hope to accelerate and reorientate action. We need the expertise of permanent institutions likethe IUCN Secretariat, and the enthusiasm and knowledge of worldwide networks of committed volunteers. We need dynamic and at times challenging debate, because we do not know all
the answers and must share our visions and thoughts about solutions. We must not be afraid ofchange, or of challenge to our established values, even though both are uncomfortable things
to deal with. We need action on the ground, linked to worldwide machinery that will draw out
and promulgate the lessons learned. We need flexibility to adjust action to regional priorities .
We need ability to adjust programme and priorities with the times.
These are all characteristics of IUCN today. That does not mean that we are a perfectand complete body. We have weaknesses. Our dialogue with the corporate sector , for example,
has evolved slowly and haltingly, partly because many of our member organizations have yet
to be convinced that the corporate sector is willing to look beyond short-term profits , aggressive and competitive marketing, and minimal investment in environmental protection . The
work of the Business Council on Sustainable Development has done much to build confidence, but we need to go further. For the private sector of industry is the dominant engine ofchange in the world. It manages finance flows far greater than government-to-government aid .
It will be the leader in developing new technology—and needs dialogue with government , theregulator and the environmental movement which understands the limits and sensitivities of
the Earth if that technology is to be sustainable. We need to give priority to new dialogue . We
have already begun, with the business sector here in Japan.

7. The Future
What does the future hold? Quite frankly, there can be no grounds for confidence.
The optimistic scenario assumes that we shall indeed create the new dialogue between
government,the corporate sector and the nongovernmentalenvironmentalmovement. That weshall create partnershipsthat link communities and enlist every citizen in the action required .
That we shall succeedin convincing people of the need to adjust their personal goals and adapt
their lifestyles, so that their descendants may inherit a world that is beautiful, diverse and able
to offer everyone a life of decency, quality and fulfillment.
To do this we have to work with the grain of human culture and tradition, and to touch
people's beliefs and sense of ethics and human decency. We have to empower local communities to steer their own development—and this means a fundamental change in how somegovernmentswork. Not easy. Indeed, Caring for the Earth has already been attacked as hopelessly utopian.
But what is the alternative? The pessimistic scenario is one in which the gaps in the fabric of civilizationyawn ever wider until part at least of that fabric collapses. It might be indeed
possible for the developed countries to stand back, protect their own lifestyles and allow mortality to rise in other regions, balancing populations by nature's harshest means. But this would
erode the total ability of the Earth to support life, and there would be no guarantee that theinteractions in the world environmental system, as well as in the world political system, would
tolerate such a selfish separation.
The fact is that the unifying processes in the world are too strong to stop. Travel, uni-99

versalinformation,

incredibleof humanity

to driftand disintegrate.

three-quarters
betweenever-tighteningthat a quarter

nations

and within

nations,

economic

links

could

contemplate

We haveand whichand manyothershaping

to tackle

factors

a future

the poverty

is creating

make
that

it simply

left the othergap, widening

a new environmental

as it isdegradation

gap. We have to do this by rallying behind the visions that have for long been best in humansociety: equity, alliance and care for one another and the Earth, on which we all depend.
We in IUCN
that

view

country

has one of the strongest

economiesin the world.

of energy

and raw materials,
friendlyalliancesronmentallywith environmental
national

sound

field of land-use

development,

countries

IUCN

sincerely

thankswith your immense

come

you

shortly

and nongovernmental

Thank

like

sector. Nationally,and develop

abilityorganizations

Asia.

Glass

I hopein its tech-and provide
lives. You canan increasingly

you can set an example
changes,

not least in thethe sustainable

you will pickup thesecre-of envi-

development
challenges

andof this prize,

which

it greatly.
Foundation

We look forward

to contributeyou.

that use a min-or waste,ours,

the Asahi

as state members

you again.

pollutionorganizations

that needs

us to new endeavors.

Japan,

no or negligible

processes

at the end of their usefulof Southeast

to a world

Your

from

is unrivaled

industrial

but I have to say that this will mean

leadership

share

needs

Your industry

You can play a large part in supporting

so contributethat you in Japanthat can be recycled

nongovernmental

planning.

of the neighboring

will encourage

produceproducts

I hopethe world

You are well able to create the new, sustainable

ative and useful

100

And

the contribution

environmentallyforge

that we have to be optimistic.
be makingnical skills.
imum

believeand will yourselves

for the award

to working

to the humanmorefuture.

closely

with you,in

We hope that we may wel-of the Union.

We look forwardin this dynamic

and creative

to working

country.

with industry

Major Publications
IUCN
Popular Reference Books
IUCN. Paradise on Earth, 1995.
- .Our Land, Our Legacy, Our North American World Heritage, 1996.
- .Masterworks of Man and Nature: Preserving our World Heritage, 1992.
- .The Conservation Atlas of Tropical Forests: The Americas, 1996.
-.The Conservation Atlas of Tropical Forests: Asia and the Pacific , 1991.
- .The Last Rain Forests, 1995.
- .Wetlands in Danger, 1993.
- .Deserts: The Encroaching Wilderness, 1993.
- .Oceans, 1991.
-. Caring for the Earth: A Strategy for Survival , 1993.
-. Coral Reefs of the World:
Vol. 1. Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, 1991 reprint;
Vol. 2. Indian Ocean, Red Sea and Gulf, 1991 reprint;
Vol. 3. Central and Western Pacific, 1991 reprint.

Strategies
IUCN. From Care to Action: Making a Sustainable World, 1996.
- .Population and Strategiesfor National Sustainable Development, 1996.
- .Strategiesfor Sustainability,Africa, 1996.
-.Strategies for Sustainability, Asia, 1996.
- .Strategiesfor Sustainability, Latin America, 1996.
- .Strategies for National Sustainable Development: A Handbook for their Planning and
Implementation, 1994.
- .Estrategias para el desarrollo sostenible: America Latina, 1995.
- .Planning Education to Carefor the Earth, 1995.
- .IUCN Sahel Studies: Sahel-Sahel, A Controversial Vision,1995.
- .Etudes de l'UICN sur le Sahel: Sahel-Sahel, une vision controversee, 1995.
- .The Fly River Catchment: Papua New Guinea, 1995.
- .The EnvironmentalImpact of the 1991-92 Drought on Zambia, 1994.
- .Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystems and Species: Environmental Conthxt;
Terrestrial Ecosystems;Implicationsfor Protected Areas, 1995, 1995, 1994.
- .Caring for the Earth: A Strategyfor Sustainable Living, 1991
- .Sauver la Planete: Strat Hie pour L'Avenir de la Vie, 1991.
- .Cuidar la Tierra: Estrategia para el Futuro de la Vida,1991.
- .Caring for the Earth: A Strategyfor Sustainable Living (Summary), 1991.
- .Sauver la Planete: (Resume), 1991.
- .Cuidar la Tierra (Resumen), 1991.

101

Audio Visual Sets
IUCN. Caring for the Earth: audio visual sets Slidepack, English.
— .Caring for the Earth: Slidepack with audio cassette, English.
— .Caring for the Earth: Video, English.
— . Caring for the Earth: Slidepack, Spanish.
— .Caring for the Earth: Slidepack with audio cassette, Spanish.
— .Caring for the Earth: Video, Spanish.
— .Oil Exploration Guidelines, complete set in English.
— .Oil Exploration in the Tropics, 1991.
— .Oil and Gas Exploration and Production in Mangrove Areas, 1993.
— .Oil and Gas Exploration and Production in Arctic and Subarctic Onshore Areas, 1993.
— . Oil and Gas Exploration and Production in Arctic and Subarctic Onshore Areas, Russian,
1993.
Biodiversity—.The Economic Value of Biodiversity.
— .Report of the Global Biodiversity Forum, 1994.
— .Report of the Second Global Biodiversity Forum, 1996.
— .Report of the Third Global Biodiversity Forum, 1996.
— .Global Biodiversity Strategy: Guidelines for Action to Save, Study and Use Earth's Biotic
Wealth Sustainably and Equitably, 1992.
— .Conserving the World's Biological Diversity, reprint 1993.

WCMC Biodiversity Series
IUCN. Assessing BiodiversityStatus and Sustainability, WCMC, 1996.
— .Priorities for Conserving Global Species Richnessand Endemism,WCMC, 1994.
— .The Biodiversity Information Clearing House—Concept and Challenges, WCMC, 1994.
— .BiodiversityData Sourcebook, WCMC, 1994.
— .Global Biodiversity: Status of the Earth's Living Resources, WCMC, 1992.
Species Conservation
IUCN/SSCAction Plans
IUCN. Orchids: Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan.
— .WildCats: Status Surveyand Conservation Action Plan, 1996.
— .African Primates: Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan, 1996.
— .Eurasian Insectivores and Tree Shrews: Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan,
1995.
— .Partridges, Quails, Francolins, Snowcocks and Guineafowl: Status Survey andConservation Action Plan 1995-1999,1995.
— .Pheasants: Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan 1995-1999,1995.
— .Megapodes: An Action Plan for their Conservation 1995-1999,1995.
— .Dolphins, Porpoises, and Whales: 1994-1998 Action Plan for the Conservation of102

Cetaceans, 1994.
-.Red Panda , Olingos, Coatis, Raccoons and their Relatives: An Action Plan for theConservation of Procyonids and Ailurids, 1994.
- .Pigs, Peccaries and Hippos: Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan, 1993.
- .Seals, Fur Seals, Sea Lions and Walruses: An Action Plan for their Conservation, 1993.
- .Wild Dogs and their Relatives, 1991.
- .Otters, 1992.
-. Wild Cats and their Relatives, 1995.
- .Seals, 1995.
- .Raccoons and their Relatives, 1995.
- .Australasian Marsupials and Monotremes: An Action Plan for their Conservation, 1992.
- .Zebras, Horses and Asses: An Action Plan for the Conservation of Wild Equids, 1992.
- .South American Camelids: An Action Plan for their Conservation, 1992.
- .Crocodiles: An Action Plan for their Conservation, 1992.
- .Swallowtail Butteiflies: An Action Plan for their Conservation, 1992.
-.Rabbits , Hares and Pikas: Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan, 1991.
- .Otters: An Action Plan for their Conservation, 1991.

Species Conservation
IUCN. Community-basedConservation in Tanzania, 1996.
-. TouristHunting in Tanzania, 1996.
-.Assessing the Sustainability of Uses of WildSpecies: Case Studies and Initial Assessment
Procedure, 1996.
- .A Global Strategyfor the Conservation of Marine Turtles, 1995.
- .Estrategia Mundial para la Conservacion de las Tortugas Marinas, 1995.
-. Une strat Hie mondiale pour la conservation des tortues marines, 1995.
- .Polar Bears-Proceedings of the Eleventh WorkingMeeting of the IUCN/SSC Polar BearSpecialist Group January 25-28, 1993. Copenhagen, 1995.
- .IUCN Red List Categories, 1994.
- .1994 IUCN Red List of Threatened Animals, 1993.
- .The Conservation Biology of Molluscs, 1995.
- .Directory of Crocodilian Farming Operations, 2nd Edition, 1992.
- . Conservation Biology of Lycaenidae (Butteiflies), 1993.
Plant Species Conservation
IUCN. Centres of Plant Diversity: A Guide and Strategyfor their Conservation:
Vol.1. Europe, Africa, South WestAsia and the Middle East, 1994;
Vol.2. Asia, Australasia (except Southwestand the Pacific Islands), 1995;
Vol.3. TheAmericas, 1996.
- .Principles and Practice of Plant Conservation, 1994.
- .Guidelinesfor the Conservation of Medicinal Plants, 1993.
- .Principes directeurs pour la conservation des plantes m Eicinales, 1993.

103

-

.Directrices

sobre

conservacionde plantas

medicinales,

1993.

Protected Areas
IUCN. Tourism,Ecotourism and Protected Areas, 1996.
- .Conservation of Biodiversityand the NewRegional Planning, 1995.
- .Expanding Partnerships in Conservation, 1995.
- .Opportunitiesfor Antarctic EnvironmentalEducation and Training, 1996.
- .Progress in Conservation of Subantarctic Islands, 1995.
- .Developing the Antarctic Protected Area System, 1994.
- .A Global Representative Systemof Marine Protected Areas.
Vol.I. Antarctic, Arctic, Mediterranean, Northwest Atlantic, Northeast Atlantic and Baltic;
Vol.II. Wider Caribbean, WestAfrica and SouthAtlantic;
Vol.III. Central Indian Ocean, Arabian Seas, East Africa and East Asian Seas;
Vol. IV South Pacific, Northeast Pacific, Northwest Pacific, Southeast Pacific andAustralia/New Zealand, 1995.
- .National Parks without People?: The South American Experience, 1995.
- .Coordinating Research and Management to Enhance Protected Areas, 1994.
- .Protecting Nature: Regional Reviewsof Protected Areas, 1994.
- .Guidelinesfor Protected Area Management Categories, 1994.
- .Parks for Life: Actionfor Protected Areas in Europe, 1994.
- .Parques para la Vida: Plan de Accionpara las Areas Protegidas de Europa, 1994.
- .Des pares pour la vie: Des actions pour les aires protegees d'Europe, 1994.
- .Parkre fur das Leben: Actionsplanfiir Schutzgebietein Europa, 1994.
- .Protecting Indigenous Peoples in Protected Areas, 1993.
- .Nature Reserves of the Himalaya and Mountains of Central Asia, 1992.
- .Protected Areas of the World:
Vol.1. Indomalaya, Oceania, Australia, and Antarctic, 1992;
Vol.2. Palaearctic, 1992;
Vol.3. Afrotropical, 1992;
Vol.4. Nearctic and Neotropical, 1992.
- . WorldHeritage: TwentyYearsLater, 1992.
- . Guidelinesfor Mountain Protected Areas, 1992.
Forest Conservation
IUCN. Non-timber Forest Products: Ecological and economic aspects of exploitation in
Colombia,Ecuador and Bolivia, 1996.
- . ConservingBiodiversity outside Protected Areas: The role of traditional agro-ecosystems,
1995.
- .Kenya's Indigenous Forests: Status, Management and Conservation, 1995.
- .The International Forests Regime:Legal and Policy Issues, 1995.
- . Collaborative Management of Forestsfor Conservation and Development, 1995.
- .Cogestion des forets pour la conservation et le d Weloppement, 1995.

104

— .Manejo Forestal Colaborativo para la Conservacion y el Desarrollo, 1996.
— .Extractive Reserves, 1995.
— .Reservas Extrativistas, 1995.
— .Forest Protection in Ghana, 1995.
— .Plantations in the Tropics: Environmental Concerns, 1993.
— .La gestion des regions forestieres tropicales humides: Directives ecologiques, 1993 .
— . Conserving Biological Diversity in Managed Tropical Forests, 1992.
— . Conservacion de la diversidad biologica en los bosques tropicales bajo regimen de ordenacion, 1995.
— .La conservation de la diversity biologique dans les forets tropicales amenagees, 1995.
— .El Extractivismo en Am S ica Latina: Conclusiones y Recomendaciones del Taller UICNCEE, 1993.
— . The Management of Tropical Moist Forest Lands: Ecological Guidelines, 1991.
— .La Reserve de Conkouati, Congo: Le secteur sud-ouest, 1992.
— .La Reserve de Conkouati, Congo: Le secteur sud-est, 1991.
— .Le Parc national d'Odzala, Congo, 1991.

Ramsar Convention on Wetlands
IUCN. Le Manuel de la Conventionde Ramsar, 1996.
— .The Ramsar ConventionManual: A Guide to the Conventionon Wetlands of International
Importance, 1994.
—.Directory of Wetlandsof International Importance: An Update, 1996.
— .The Legal Development of the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands of International
Importance, 1995.
—.Proceedings of the Sixth Meeting of the Conference of the Contracting Parties, Brisbane
Australia, 1996, English, 1996.
—.Proceedings of the Sixth Meeting of the Conference of the Contracting Parties, Brisbane
Australia, 1996, French, 1996.
—.Proceedings of the Sixth Meeting of the Conference of the Contracting Parties, Brisbane
Australia, 1996, Spanish, 1996.
—.Proceedings of the Fifth Meeting of the Contracting Parties, Kushiro, Japan, 1993.
Vol.I. Reports and Decisions, English, 1993;
Vol.I. Reports and Decisions, French, 1993;
Vol.I. Reports and Decisions, Spanish, 1993;
Vol.II. Conference Workshops,1993;
Vol.III. National Reports, 1993.
—. Towardsthe Wise Use of Wetlands: Report of the Ramsar Convention Wise Use Project,
1993.
— .The Ramsar Conventionon Wetlands:Its History and Development, 1993.
Wetlands
IUCN. A Directory of Wetlands in the Middle East, 1995.

105

- .An Inventory of Wetlands of the Lao P.D.R, 1996.
- .Tropical Lowland Peatlands of Southeast Asia, 1996.
- .Water Resource Use in the Zambezi Basin, 1995.
- .Zones Humides de Burkina Faso, 1994.
- .Manuel de Formation a la Gestion des Zones Humides Tropicales, 1994.
- .Mangroves of the Sunderbans-Volume Two: Bangladesh, 1994.
- .An Inventory of Brazilian Wetlands, 1994.
- .A Preliminary Inventory of Coastal Wetlands of Cote d'Ivoire, 1994.
- . Wetlands Ecology and Priorities for Conservation in Zimbabwe, 1994.
- .Gestion des Ressources Cotieres et Littorales du Senegal, 1993.
- .The Hadejia-Nguru Wetlands, 1993.
- .The IUCN Review of the Southern Okavango Integrated Water Development Project, 1993.
- .Wetlands of Kenya, 1992.
- .Wetlands Conservation Conference for Southern Africa, 1992.
- . Conservation and Management of Greek Wetlands, 1992.
- . Conservation and Development: The Sustainable Use of Wetland Resources, 1992.
-.Managing the Wetlands of Kafue Flats and Bangweulu Basin, 1992.

Marine and Coastal Areas
Marine Conservation and DevelopmentReports
IUCN. Status and Future of Large Marine Ecosystemsof the Indian Ocean, 1995.
-. The Large Marine Ecosystemsof the Pacific Rim, 1995.
-. The Science of Conservation in the Coastal Zone, 1995.
-.1991 Gulf War:EnvironmentalAssessments of IUCN and Collaborators, 1994.
-.Global Climate Change and Coral Reefs: Implicationsfor People and Reefs, 1994.
-.Reefs at Risk: A Programme for Action, 1993.
-.Mangrove Forests, Climate Change and Sea Level Rise, 1993.
-.Marine Fauna of Oman: Cetaceans, Turtles, Seabirds and Shallow Water Corals, 1993.
- .Guidelinesfor Developing a Coastal Zone Management Plan for Belize, 1992.
- .Guidelines for Developing a Coastal Zone Management Plan for Belize: The GIS
Database, 1993.
-.Application of the Biosphere Reserve Concept to Coastal Marine Areas, 1993.
- .Guidelinesfor Establishing Marine Protected Areas, 1992.
- .Marine Protected Areas Needs in the SouthAsian Seas Region:
Vol.1. Bangladesh, 1993;
Vol.2. India, 1993;
Vol.3. Maldives, 1993;
Vol.4. Pakistan, 1993;
Vol.5. Sri Lanka, 1993.
EuropeIUCN. Best Practice for Conservation Planning in Rural Areas, 1995.

106

— .River Corridors in Hungary, 1995.
—.Tanks and Thyme: Biodiversity in the Former Soviet Military Areas in Central Europe,
1996.
— .The Mountains of Central and Eastern Europe, 1991.
— .Interaction between Agriculture and Nature Conservation in the Czech & Slovak
Republics.
— .The Wetlandsof Central and Eastern Europe, 1993.
— .The Lowland Grasslands of Central and Eastern Europe, 1991.
— .National Environmental Status Report: Vol.4: Conservation Status of the Danube Delta.
— .EnvironmentalLaw in the South Pacific, 1996.
— .Draft International Covenant on Environmentand Development, 1995.
— .Gut'adel Conveniosobre la Diversidad Biologica, 1996.
— .Guide de la Conventionsur la diversity biologique, 1996.
— .A Guide to the Convention on Biological Diversity, 1994.
— .EnvironmentalProtection in Islam, 1994.
— .Biological DiversityConservation and the Law: Legal Mechanismsfor ConservingSpecies
and Ecosystems, 1993.
— .Guidelinesfor Legislation to Implement CITES, 1993.
— .LegalAspects of the Conservation of Wetlands,1991.
Information Sources
IUCN. Directory of EnvironmentalInformation and Organisations in Southern Africa. Vol.1,
1996.
— .A Sourcebookfor Conservation and Biological Diversity, 1995.
— .IUCN Publications 1948-1995, 1996.
— .Conservation Thesaurus, 1996.
— .IUCN Scientificand TechnicalReports, 1996.
IUCN Membership

Publications

IUCN. IUCN Pocket Guide 1996/1997, 1996.
— . UICN Guide de Poche 1996/1997, 1996.
— .Guia de UICN 1996/1997,

1996.

107