The data reaffirm pessimism around most of the Rust Belt,
but looking more closely there are some big positivegainers. If you haven’t been thinking about Indianapolis
and Columbus, these data are a good nudge to get on aplane and see what’s happening. We were a bit surprisedby the nearly 7,800 people leaving Pittsburgh’s Allegheny
County, but a downward trend in metro labor force andsleepy job growth indicate the estimate could be on track.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, a 2.0%/3,000person gain for Wright County outside of Minneapolissuggests that it may be worth a closer look.

Multnomah County in Oregon is a noteworthy decliner.
The dynamics are interesting in metro Portland as counties
just across the Columbia River in Washington are seeing
growth. In an age of increased remote work, states with noincome tax like Washington have an edge. Crime issues
are undoubtedly hurting Portland as well.

Counties With Large Population Moves
Positive Changes
StateCounty

Texas

Negative Changes% Change# Change

StateCounty% Change# Change

Collin County

3.1%

36,364

California

Los Angeles County-0.6%-56,520

Texas

Montgomery County4.7%

31,800

New York

Kings County-1.1%-28,306

FloridaPolk County

3.8%

29,948

New York

Queens County-1.2%-26,362

Texas

Denton County

3.1%

29,943

New YorkBronx County-1.8%-25,332

Texas

Ford Bend County

3.1%

27,859Illinois

Cook County-0.5%-24,494

Texas

Williamson County

3.7%

24,918Pennsylvania Philadelphia County-1.0%-16,294

FloridaPasco County

3.9%

23,855

California-0.5%-14,617

Arizona

Pinal County

4.1%

19,202

Pennsylvania Allegheny County-0.6%-7,780

Utah

Utah County

2.3%

16,482MichiganWayne County-0.4%-7,773

FloridaOsceola County

3.6%

15,241Tennessee

Shelby County-0.7%-6,315

FloridaSt. Lucie County

4.1%

14,700

California

Alameda County-0.4%-6,071

FloridaLake County

3.5%

14,372

Louisiana

Orleans Parish-1.6%-5,781

South Carolina Horry County

3.7%

14,331

Hawaii

Honolulu County-0.5%-5,420FloridaMarion County

3.4%

13,522

OregonMultnomah County-0.6%-4,865

FloridaBrevard County

2.1%

13,272

New York

Suffolk County-0.3%-4,804

Texas

Kaufman County

7.6%

13,079

Missouri

St. Louis City

-1.6%

-4,439Florida

St. John’s County

4.2%

13,038Louisianna

Jefferson Parish-1.0%-4,253

FloridaManatee County

2.8%

11,926

Ohio

Cuyahoga County-0.3%-3,906

Texas

Hays County

4.2%

11,383Maryland

Baltimore City

-0.7%

-3,8683.1%

10,750Missouri

St. Louis County-0.4%-3,732South Carolina Spartanburg County

Orange County

Texas

Brazoria County

2.8%

10,704

California

Ventura County-0.4%-3,281

Texas

Ellis County

4.9%

10,506

California

Kern County-0.3%-2,931

South Carolina Berkeley County

4.2%

10,265

California

Santa Cruz County-1.0%-2,693Texas

Comal County

5.0%

9,179

Mississippi

Hinds City-1.2%-2,685

Colorado

Weld County

2.6%

9,176

California

Santa Barbara County -0.6%-2,658Source: U.S. Census Bureau (2023 estimates), Roofstock Research

Note: Positive counties are top 25 by # change among counties with at least 2.0% growth and 2,000 people added during 2023. Negative counties arebottom 25 by # change among counties with population loss of at least 0.3% and 1,000.

© 2024 Roofstock Inc.

1