The Winners of the Blue Planet Prize
2010
Dr. James Hansen (USA)
Sir Bob Watson (UK)2010Blue Planet Prize
Dr. James Hansen (USA)

Sir Bob Watson (UK)

Director at Goddard Institute for Space Studies( NASA )Adjunct professor in the Department of Earthand Environmental Sciences at Columbia
University

Chief Scientific Adviser of the UK Department
for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs(DEFRA)
Chair of Environmental Science and Science
Director at Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, the University of East Anglia

PRAY:
This blue planet where we live
Does not belong to us only
All the children to be born on thisplanet,All living beings on the planet,
All have the holy right
To rejoice in the happiness
Of being born on this planet
We as one of those given life on thisplanet,By rendering thoughts to all the life
rejoicing in their lives
In the future of this planet,
Can recreate our linkage
Between all of those lives and us.
If the film helps to allow you
To refresh you to rejoice in the happinessOf passing this blue planet to the future
generations,
By rendering thoughts to the blessingsof the Earth,
The Planet of LifeWe are more than delighted

Selected from the Slide Show Presented at the Openingof the Awards Ceremony
207

Their Imperial Highnesses Prince andPrincess Akishino at the Awards Ceremony
His Imperial Highness Prince Akishino congratulates
the laureates
The prizewinners receive their trophies from Chairman Tanaka

Tetsuji Tanaka, Chairmanof the Foundation delivers
the opening address

Dr. James Hansen

Dr. Hiroyuki
Yoshikawa, Chairmanof the Selection
Committee explains
the rationale for thedetermination of the
year's winners

Mr. James P. Zumwalt, Deputy Chief of Mission of theUnited States of America (left) and Mr. David Warren,
United Kingdom Ambassador to Japan, congratulate thelaureates

Blue Planet Prize Commemorative Lectures208

Sir Bob Watson

Profile

Dr. James Hansen
Director at Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( NASA )Adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia
University
Education and Academic and Professional Activities
1941
Born in USA
1963
Receives a bachelor’s degree in physics and mathematics at the University of
Iowa
1965, 1967 Receives a master’s degree in astronomy and a doctorate in physics at the
University of Iowa
1967-1969 A researcher at Goddard Institute for Space Studies (New York)
1969
Post-doctoral fellow at Leiden Observatory (Netherlands)
1969-1972 Researcher at Columbia University (New York)1972-1981 Manager of the planetary atmospheres program at Goddard Institute for SpaceStudies
1978-1985 Adjunct professor in the Department of Earth Sciences at Columbia University
1981-present Director at Goddard Institute for Space Studies
1985-present Adjunct professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences atColumbia University
1996
Elected to United States National Academy of Sciences
2001
John Heinz Environment Award
Roger Revelle Medal, American Geophysical Union
2006
Duke of Edinburgh Conservation Medal, World Wildlife Fund (WWF)2007
Laureate, Dan David Prize for Outstanding Achievements & Impacts in Quest
for Energy
Leo Szilard Award, American Physical Society for Outstanding Promotion &Use of Physics for the Benefit of Society
Haagen-Smit Clean Air Award
American Association for the Advancement of Science Award for Scientific
Freedom and Responsibility
2009Carl-Gustaf Rossby Research Medal, highest award of American MeteorologicalSociety
2010
Sophie Prize(As of June, 2010)209

Based on the concept of radiative forcing to indicate the flow of radiation energy in theatmosphere, Dr. Hansen et al. succeeded in developing a practical climate model that wasproven by tests such as the Pinatubuo volcanic eruption – they predicted global cooling tofollow, which proved quite accurate – there are other verifications, and pioneered understanding
and forecasting of the climate system. At a time when there was a noticeable temperaturedecline because of the impact of the sun and volcanic activity, Dr. Hansen predicted global
warming in the future based on the climate model. In 1988, he got more attention with strong
statements at an appropriate time to testify before committees and subcommittees in the US
Senate and House of Representatives and provided the public with an early alert to the dangers
of global warming and to call for actions. Later he claimed that the climate had a “tipping
point,” and warned that an average temperature increase of even a few degrees would very
probably cause irreversible and unrecoverable climate change and produce destructive results
for life on Earth. Dr. Hansen called on the governments and the public to take immediate action
to reduce and mitigate the impact of climate change. He has consistently emphasized the needfor unprecedented international cooperation and significantly contributed to enlightening thewhole world about global environment issues.
From Astronomy to Climate Science
Study of Planetary Atmosphere
Dr. Hansen was born on a farm, located in Charter Oak township, Iowa in 1941. Attracted to
the renowned space science program of Professor James Van Allen of the University of Iowa,
he received a master’s degree in astronomy and a doctorate in physics at the university. Whileattending the University of Iowa, he came to Japan and did researches on astrophysics andastronomy at the University of Kyoto and the University of Tokyo, respectively. Professor Sueo
Ueno of Univ. of Kyoto kindly introduced Dr. Hansen to his methods of computation called“invariant imbedding”, which is one of the techniques Dr. Hansen used for radiative transfer inplanetary atmospheres.
In 1967, he analyzed the data on Venusian temperature and published a thesis arguingthat the high temperature of Venus was attributable to a trap of thermal energy caused byaerosol in the atmosphere. In 1974 and 1975, he studied the composition of clouds in the
Venusian atmosphere, which completely veil the planet so that its surface cannot be seen. He
reported that the clouds consisted of very small spherical droplets of nearly uniform size – healso was able to measure the index of refraction of these droplets and how this index changed
from ultraviolet to green to red and infrared wavelengths – this precise information was usedby others to conclude that the hazy veil shrouding Venus must be sulfuric acid. The Pioneer
Venus spacecraft launched in 1978 confirmed the properties that Dr. Hansen had inferred fromtelescopic observations and confirmed that the haze was sulfuric acid. The validity of thefinding was proven by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter in 1978. In 1981, Dr. Hansen reported that theclouds consisted of sulfuric acid airborne droplets and sulfur dioxide.
Other researchers reported that Venus had been rich in water until several billion years
before and that the water had disappeared from the surface of the planet due to the runaway
greenhouse effect that subsequently occurred.1 Later, Dr. Hansen warned that an occurrence of210this kind of runaways warming could expose Earth to a harsh environment like it did to Venus,
through the evaporation of water.2
Then Dr. Hansen shifted the focus of his study to climate change that is caused byhuman activities which change the composition of Earth’s atmosphere. He utilized NASA’ssatellite observation data in studying the thermal radiation of Earth’s atmosphere, which led tothe development of a global-scale atmospheric circulation model and significantly contributed
to a detailed understanding, analyses and predictions of climate change that included the impact
of human activities.
Study of the Earth’s Climate
In 1987, Dr. Hansen et al. summarized and published the data on the atmospheric temperatureof Earth mainly during the period between 1880 and 1985 obtained from global weather
stations. Accurate data on atmospheric temperature from the last 100 years showed a rise of 0.5- 0.7 degrees in the average temperature. The recorded figures of average temperature increase,
updated in 2006, reached 0.8 degrees/100 years, showing that the tendency toward global
warming was an undeniable fact and was not merely a result of urbanization.
In a thesis published with Dr. Menon et al., Dr. Hansen argued that there is the existenceof atmospheric black carbon effects in the climate of some local regions. He showed that black
carbon in the atmosphere brought convection and rain by heating the atmosphere and would
ultimately lower temperatures over large areas by reducing the amount of sunlight reaching the
ground. As an example, he explained a climatic abnormality observed in northern China in 1988.
Then Dr. Hansen joined Dr. Makiko Sato in conducting a study using the solar photometer of
AERONET (AErosol RObotic NET work) and showed that the impact of black carbon doubled
the value that would normally be estimated from it. Black carbon in the atmosphere rapidly
increased in the 1880s when the Industrial Revolution was at its peak. The increase slowed
down from the 1900s to the 1950s and leveled off. Even at present, the emissions of black
carbon are increasing in China and India, which are in the midst of their rapid economic growth.
Impact of Human Activities on Climate Change
In 2003, Dr. Hansen published an essay titled “Can We Defuse the Global Warming Time
Bomb?” He warned that the climate change resultant from human activities has currently
overcome natural climate change and, if this persists for extended periods, could grow to anenormous level causing great disasters. He also said that actions to prevent or mitigate global
warming and other undesirable climate change phenomena need to be taken immediately, andthat unprecedented kinds of international cooperation would be called for. He also stressed thatsuch mitigating actions would be feasible and would benefit the health of humankind as well
as agriculture and the environment.
In 2006, Dr. Hansen et al. suggested that the average temperature of Earth should be
regarded as a yardstick of the degree of impact of human activities on the Earth’s atmosphericsystem. He emphasized that the rise of the average temperature was inevitably accompanied by“a rise in the sea level” and “extinction of species” and that an increase in the average temperature of even one degree would produce highly destructive results for life on Earth. According211

to him, a CO2 level of 450ppm or greater in the atmosphere would pose a great deal of danger
and powerful measures to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gases are important and must be
taken immediately.
Advocating Conservation of the Global Environment
In 1988, Dr. Hansen published a thesis on climate predictions using a general atmosphericcirculation model based on some scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. He concluded that the
global warming caused by human activities would grow to a level well above the level ofnatural climate variability within the next few decades. In the same year, Dr. Hansen testified
before committees and subcommittees in the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives andprovided the public with an extensive alert to the dangers of global warming.
In 2007, he used his knowledge of paleoclimatology to show that the sea level of 35
million years ago (when the average temperature of Earth was two or three degrees higher than
today) was 25 meters higher than the current level and that the IPCC’s estimate, 59 centimeters,
was far from correct. In 2008, he gave a lecture and explained the definition of a tipping point,a threshold of climate change that humankind must not exceed, as 1) a tipping level: the levelat which a large climate change occurs even when greenhouse gases do not increase any further;and 2) a point of no return: the point at which the climate system causes an uncontrollable andirreversible change on the climate. According to paleoclimatology, ice in the polar areas would
dissolve suddenly instead of dissolving gradually. This can be interpreted as an example of atipping point. Dr. Hansen uses multiple lines of evidence to conclude that the world has alreadyreached a dangerous level of atmospheric greenhouse gases, but he admits that it is difficult todetermine how long the world can be in the dangerous zone before the effects become large andirreversible. However, he argues further that if emissions continue at current or increased levels
for a few decades large climate changes and impacts will proceed out of humanity’s control.
Dr. Hansen recommends that all nations should determine their responsibilities forgreenhouse gas emissions based on a historical viewpoint, more specifically, the cumulative
amount of their CO2 emissions. According to this yardstick, United Kingdom would be thelargest cause of greenhouse gas emissions followed by the United States and Germany. He
urges nations to base their actions on the extent of their responsibilities.
Last year, Dr. Hansen urged the US government to set an example and lead the world intaking actions against climate change, because humankind should no longer postpone theimplementation of anti-global warming measures. To ensure the next generations a better
future, Dr. Hansen continues to explain to government officials and the public about the dangerof global warming and to advocate early actions for reduction of greenhouse gases with theaim of conserving the global environment.
Notes
1. Kasting J.F. (1988) “Runaway and moist greenhouse atmospheres and the evolution of earth and Venus” Icarus
74 (3): 472–494.
2. Climate Threat to the Planet: Implication for Energy Policy and Intergenerational Justice Jim Hansen December
17, 2008 Lecture at AGU

212

EssayEnvironment and Development Challenges:
The Imperative of a Carbon Fee and Dividend
Dr. James E. Hansen
Most governments have paid little attention to the threat of human-made climate change.
They have acknowledged its likely existence, notably in the Framework Convention on Climate
Change (1), in which 195 nations agreed to avoid "dangerous anthropogenic interference"with climate. However, the instrument chosen to implement the Framework Convention, theKyoto Protocol, is so ineffectual that global fossil fuel CO2 emissions have increased by about
3 percent/year since its adoption in 1997, as opposed to a growth rate of 1.5 percent/year in thedecades preceding the Kyoto Protocol [http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Emissions/, which
is an update of a graph in (2)].
This feckless path cannot continue much longer, if there is to be hope of preserving aplanet resembling the one on which civilization developed, a world that avoids the economic
devastation of continually receding shorelines and the moral nightmare of having exterminateda large fraction of the species on Earth. The science is clear enough: burning most fossil fuels
would invoke such consequences (3).
At least a moderate overshoot of climate change into the dangerous zone is unavoidable
now, but, fortunately, prompt actions initiating a change of directions this decade could
minimize the impacts on humanity and nature. The policies needed to produce a rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions would have a wide range of other benefits for the public, especiallyin those nations that recognize the advantages in being early adoptors of effective policies. So
there is some basis for optimism that the political will necessary to enact effective policies
could be marshaled.
However, for this to happen it is essential that the next approach not repeat thefundamental mistakes that doomed the Kyoto Protocol. If another 15 years is wasted on an
ineffectual approach, it will be too late to avoid catastrophic consequences for today's young
people and future generations. Therefore it is important to clarify the principal flaws in the
Kyoto approach from the standpoint of climate science.
Kyoto Protocol
A fundamental flaw of the Kyoto approach is that it was based on a "cap" mechanism. Thisapproach embodies two ineluctable problems. First, it made it impossible to find a formula foremission caps that was equitable among nations and also reduced carbon emissions at the raterequired to stabilize climate. Second, it failed to provide clear price signals that would rewardbusinesses, individuals and nations that led the way in reducing emissions.
The validity of the first assertion can be proven by comparing national responsibilities
213

for climate change, which are proportional to cumulative historical emissions (4, 5). The
United Kingdom, United States, and Germany have per capita responsibilities exceeding the
responsibilities of China and India by almost a factor of ten (4). Even if the UK, US andGermany terminated emissions tomorrow, by the time China, India and other developing
nations reached comparable responsibility for climate change the world would be on a course
headed to certain climate disasters.
Key Points: Why a Carbon Fee and Dividend is Imperative
1. There is a limit on fossil fuel carbon dioxide that we can pour into the atmospherewithout guaranteeing unacceptably tragic, immoral climatic consequences for young
people and nature.
2. It is clear that we will soon pass the limit on carbon emissions, because it requires
decades to replace fossil fuel energy infrastructure with carbon-neutral and carbonnegative energies.
3. Climate system inertia, which delays full climate response to human-made changes ofatmospheric composition, is both our friend and foe. The delay allows moderate
overshoot of the sustainable carbon load, but it also brings the danger of passing a
climatic point of no return that sets in motion a series of catastrophic events out ofhumanity's control.
4. The ineffectual paradigm of prior efforts to reign in carbon emissions must be replacedby one in which an across-the-board rising carbon fee is collected from fossil fuelcompanies at the place where the fossil fuel enters a domestic market, i.e., at thedomestic mine or port-of-entry.
5. All funds collected from fossil fuel companies should be distributed to the public. Thisis needed for the public to endorse a substantial continually rising carbon price and toprovide individuals the wherewithal to phase in needed changes in energy-use choices.
It is unrealistic to think that a "cap" approach can be made global or near-global.
Nations less responsible for the world's climate predicament believe, with considerable
justification, that they should not have to adhere to caps on CO2 emissions (much less steadily
shrinking caps) that are comparable to caps on industrialized countries. At the same time,some industrialized countries, including the United States, refuse to bind themselves to capsthat are more stringent than those imposed on developing countries. This impasse cannot be
resolved under a cap approach. Indeed, the targets adopted to date with a cap approach havebeen but a drop in the bucket compared to the reductions required to stabilize climate.
A secondary, but important, flaw of the Kyoto approach is its introduction of "offsets".
Nations are allowed to limit reduction of fossil fuel emissions by means of alternative actions
such as tree planting or reduced emissions of non-CO2 climate forcings such as methane orchlorofluorocarbons. However, these offsets are not equivalent to fossil fuel emissions,214because the fossil fuel carbon will stay in surface carbon reservoirs (atmosphere, ocean, soil,
biosphere) for millennia. Rapid phase-out of fossil fuel emissions, as required to stabilize
climate, becomes implausible if leakage is permitted via offsets. Leakage is avoided via theflat across-the-board carbon fee on fossil fuels in the fee-and-dividend approach. Incentives
to reduce non-CO2 climate forcings will be useful, but such programs should not be allowed
to interfere with the more fundamental requirement of phasing out fossil fuel CO2 emissions.
Fee and Dividend
Fee-and-dividend (5) has a flat fee (a single number specified in $ per ton of CO2) collectedfrom fossil fuel companies covering domestic sales of all fossil fuels. Collection cost is trivial,
as there are only a small number of collection points: the first sale at domestic mines and at the
port-of-entry for imported fossil fuels. All funds collected from the fee are distri-buted
electronically (to bank account or debit card) monthly to legal residents of the country in equal
per capita amounts. Citizens using less than average fossil fuels (more than sixty percent of
the public with current distribution of energy use) will therefore receive more in their monthly
dividend than they pay in increased prices. But all individuals will have a strong incentive to
reduce their carbon footprint in order to stay on the positive side of the ledger or improve theirposition.
The carbon fee would start small and rise at a rate that sows benefits of economic
stimulation while minimizing economic disruptions from sudden change. Economic efficiency requires the price of fossil fuels to rise toward a level that matches their cost tosociety. At present fossil fuels are the dominant energy only because the environmental andsocial costs are externalized onto society as a whole rather than being internalized into theirprices (6). Human health costs due to air and water pollution from mining and burning of fossil
fuels are borne by the public, as are costs of climate change that have been estimated at$100-1000/tCO2 (7).
International Implementation
When the reality and consequences of the climate threat become clear enough the international
community should recognize that all nations are in the same boat and that the fruitless capand-trade-with-offsets approach must be abandoned. The reality is that the Kyoto Protocol andproposed replacements are "indulgences" schemes (5), which allow aggressive developmentof fossil fuels to continue worldwide. Developing countries acquiesce if sufficient paymentsfor offsets and adaptation are provided. This works fine for adults in developed and developing
countries today, but this abuse of young people and future genera-tions must eventually end as
the facts become widely apparent.
A fundamental fact is that as long as fossil fuels are allowed to be cheap, via subsidies
and failure to pay their costs to society, they will be burned. Even ostensibly successful caps
have no significant benefit. They simply reduce demand for the fuel, thus lowering its priceand creating incentives for it to be burned somewhere by somebody. What is required is anapproach that results in economically efficient phase-out of fossil fuels, with replacement byenergy efficiency and carbon-free energy sources such as renewable energy and nuclear power.

215

Specifically, there must be a flat (across-the-board) rising fee (tax) on carbon emissions.
With such a flat fee, collected by the energy-using nation at its domestic mines and ports ofentry, there is no need for trading carbon permits or financial derivatives based on them.
Indeed the price oscillations inherent in carbon trading drown out the price signals. The
required rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and phase-in of alternatives requires that businesses
and consumers be confident that the fee will continue to rise. Another flaw of trading is thefact that it necessarily brings big banks into the matter – and all of the bank profits are extracted
from the public via increased energy prices.
A carbon fee (tax) approach can be made global much more readily than cap-and-trade(8). For example, say a substantial economic block (e.g., Europe and the U.S. or Europe andChina) agrees to have a carbon tax. They would place border duties on products from nations
without an equivalent carbon tax, based on a standard estimates of fossil fuels used in
production of the product. Such a border tax is allowed by rules of the World Trade
Organization, with the proviso that exporters who can document that their production uses lessfossil fuels than the standard will be assigned an appropriately adjusted border duty. Borderduties will create a strong incentive for exporting nations to impose their own carbon tax, sothey can collect the funds rather than have them collected by the importing country.
Once the inevitability of a rising carbon price is recognized, the economic advantagesof being an early adopter of fee-and-dividend will spur its implementation. These include improved economic efficiency of honest energy pricing and a head-start in development ofenergy-efficient and low-carbon products. The potential economic gains to middle and lower
income citizens who minimize their carbon footprint will address concerns of people in manynations where citizens are becoming restive about growing wealth disparities. Note that theeffect of a carbon price on upper class citizens is modest and non-threatening except to ahandful of fossil fuel moguls who extract obscene profits from the public's dependence on
fossil fuels. An added social benefit of fee-and-dividend is its impact on illegal immigration– by providing a strong economic incentive for immigrants to become legal, it provides anapproach for slowing and even reversing illegal immigration that will be more effective thanborder patrols.
National Implementation
The greatest barriers to solution of fossil fuel addiction in most nations are the influence of thefossil fuel industry on politicians and the media and the short-term view of politicians. Thus
it is possible that leadership moving the world to sustainable energy policies may arise in
China (9), where the leaders are rich in technical and scientific training and rule a nation thathas a history of taking the long view. Although China's CO2 emissions have skyrocketed
above those of other nations, China has reasons to move off the fossil fuel track as rapidly aspractical. China has several hundred million people living within 25 meter elevation of sea
level, and the country stands to suffer grievously from intensification of droughts, floods, andstorms that will accompany continued global warming (3, 5, 10). China also recognizes the
merits of avoiding a fossil fuel addiction comparable to that of the United States. Thus China
has already become the global leader in development of energy efficiency, renewable energies,216

and nuclear power.
Conceivably the threat of impending second-class economic status could stir the UnitedStates into action, but it is imperative that the action contain no remnant of prior cap-and-trade
fiascos, which were loaded with giveaways to big banks, big utilities, big coal and big oil. The
approach must be simple and clear, with the fee rising steadily and 100 percent of the collected
revenue distributed to legal residents on a per capita basis.
The fee-and-dividend approach allows the market place to select technology winners.
The government should not choose favorites, i.e., subsidies should be eliminated for allenergies, not just fossil fuels. This approach will spur innovation, stimulating the economy as
price signals encourage the public to adopt energy efficiency and clean energies. All materials
and services will naturally incorporate fossil fuel costs. For example, sustainable food products
from nearby farms will gain an advantage over highly fertilized products from halfway aroundthe world.
The carbon price will need to start small, growing as the public gains confidence thatthey are receiving 100 percent of the proceeds. If the fee begins at $15/tCO2 and rises $10 per
year, the rate after 10 years would be equivalent to about $1 per gallon of gasoline. Giventoday's fossil fuel use in the United States, that tax rate would generate about $600B per year,
thus providing dividends of about $2000 per legal adult resident or about $6000 per year for afamily with two or more children, with half a share for each child up to two children perfamily.
The proposal for a gradually rising fee on carbon emissions collected from fossil fuelcompanies with proceeds fully distributed to the public was praised in the United States by thepolicy director of Republicans for Environmental Protection (11) as: "Transparent. Marketbased. Does not enlarge government. Leaves energy decisions to individual choices… Sounds
like a conservative climate plan."
A grassroots organization, Citizens Climate Lobby (12), has been formed in the UnitedStates and Canada with the objective of promoting fee-and-dividend. My advice to thisorganization is adoption of a motto "100 percent or fight", because politicians are certain to try
to tap such a large revenue stream. Already there are suggestions that part of the proceeds
should be used "to pay down the national debt", a euphemism for the fact that it would become
just another tax thrown into the pot. Supporters of young people and climate stabilization willneed to have the determination and discipline shown by the "Tea Party" movement if they areto successfully overcome the forces for fossil fuel business-as-usual.
Global Strategic Situation
Europe is the region where citizens and political leaders have been most aware of the urgencyof slowing fossil fuel emissions. Given the stranglehold that the fossil fuel industry has
achieved on energy policies in the United States, it is natural to look to Europe for leadership.
Yet Europe, despite dismal experience with cap-and-trade-with-offsets, continues to push thisfeckless approach, perhaps because of bureaucratic inertia and vested interests of individuals.
China, at least in the short run, likely would be only too happy to continue such a framework,as the "offsets" have proven to be a cash cow for China.

217

The cap-and-trade-with-offsets framework, set up with the best of intentions, fails to
make fossil fuels pay their costs to society, thus allowing fossil fuel addiction to continue andencouraging “drill, baby, drill” policies to extract every fossil fuel that can be found. There isa desperate need for global political leaders who can see through special financial interests andunderstand the actions required to achieve a bright future for young people and the planet.
Perhaps such leaders exist – the problem is really not that difficult.
Acknowledgements. I thank Shi-Ling Hsu and Charles Komanoff for useful reviews andsuggestions.
References
1. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), 1992: United Nations, http://www.
unfccc.int.
2. Hansen, J. and Sato, M., 2001: Trends of measured climate forcing agents. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, 98,
14778-14783.
3. Hansen, J., et al., 2012 (submitted): Scientific case for avoiding dangerous climate change to protect young
people and nature Proc Natl Acad Sci USA.
4. Hansen, J., et al., 2007: Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study. Atmos
Chem Phys, 7, 2287-2312.
5. Hansen, J., 2009: Storms of My Grandchildren. Bloomsbury, New York, 304 pp.
6. G20 Summit Team, 2010: Analysis of the Scope of Energy Subsidies and Suggestions for the G-20 Initiative.
7. Ackerman, F., DeCanio, S., Howarth, R., and Sheeran, K., 2009: Limitations of integrated assessment
models of climate change. Climatic Change, 95, 297-315.
8. Hsu, S.-L., 2011: The Case for a Carbon Tax. Island Press, Washington.
9. Hansen, J.E., 2010: China and the Barbarians: Part 1:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/20101124_ChinaBarbarians1.pdf accessed.
10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007: Climate Change 2007,
Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., Van Der Linden, P. J.,
and Hanson, C. E. eds., Cambridge Univ Press, 996 pp.
11. Dipeso, J., 2010: Jim Hansen’s conservative climate plan, blog post at Republican’s for Environmental
Protection, October 11, 2010.
http://www.rep.org/opinions/weblog/weblog10-10-11.html accessed August 26, 2011.
12. Citizens Climate Lobby: http://citizensclimatelobby.org/ accessed.

218

Lecture

Human-Made Climate Change:
A Moral, Political and Legal Issue
Dr. James Hansen
Summary of the Situation
Human-made climate change is a moral issue. It pits the rich and the powerful against the
young and the unborn, against the defenseless and against nature.
Climate change is a political issue. But politics fails when there is a revolving door
between government and the fossil fuel-industrial complex.
Climate change is a legal issue. The judiciary provides the possibility of holding ourgovernments accountable for their duty to protect the public interest.
Slide 1* - There is a huge gap between what is understood about global warming, by therelevant scientific community, and what is known about global warming by the people whoneed to know, the public.
It is difficult for the public to recognize that we have a crisis, because human-madeglobal warming, so far, is small compared to day-to-day weather fluctuations. Yet the fact is:
we have an emergency. Because of the great inertia of the ocean, which is 4 kilometers deep,
and the ice sheets, which are 2 to 3 kilometers thick, the climate system responds slowly to
climate forcings such as increasing greenhouse gases. But this inertia is not our friend, because
it increases the danger that we may pass tipping points, beyond which the dynamics of theclimate system takes over and rapid changes occur out of humanity’s control.
The bad news is that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has already reached a dangerous
level, having increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) 200 years ago to 389 ppm today. The
good news is that it is still possible to get CO2 back below 350 ppm, if we act promptly, andthere would be many benefits of taking the actions that are needed.
Slide 2 - The great ice sheets on Greenland and Antarctica provide examples of tipping points,
especially the West Antarctic ice sheet, which sits on bedrock below sea level. If an ice sheet
is weakened to the point that it begins to collapse, the dynamics of the process takes over. It
will be out of our control – we cannot tie a rope around an ice sheet that is two kilometers
thick.
Extermination of species is another non-linear problem that can accelerate, because of
the interdependencies among species. Multiple stresses may cause enough extinctions that
ecosystems collapse.
Methane hydrates are essentially frozen methane. If they begin to disintegrate rapidly,
it could become a self-sustaining process.

219* There are supplement slides at the back of the section.

These tipping points all have occurred during Earth’s history in conjunction withwarming climates. Following mass extinctions new species evolved, but it required hundredsof thousands of years. We will leave a much more desolate planet for future generations, if we
destroy many species.
Slide 3 - Climate inertia and tipping points give rise to potential intergenerational injustice.
Today’s adults enjoy the benefits of fossil fuel use, but the impacts will be borne by young
people and future generations. Our parents did not know that their actions would affect future
generations. We do not have that excuse. We can only feign ignorance. It is called denial.
I showed this photo of our first grandchild in 2000, because newspapers had called me
the grandfather of global warming. It was amusing to show that I really was a grandfather.
After I testified to Congress in the 1980s I had decided to stick to research and leave
public communication to others. But by 2004 we had two grandchildren and the gap between
what was understood about the science and what was known by the public had become huge.
I decided to give one carefully prepared public talk in 2004.
Slide 4 - The talk was titled “Dangerous anthropogenic interference: a discussion of humanity’s
Faustian climate bargain and the payments coming due.” I began with this chart comparing
Mars, Earth and Venus. Mars has a thin atmosphere of carbon dioxide, Earth an intermediate
amount, and Venus has a very thick carbon dioxide atmosphere. The greenhouse effect ofcarbon dioxide – the fact that it allows sunlight to penetrate to the planetary surface, butpartially traps the planet’s infrared (heat) radiation – causes each planet to be warmer than it
would otherwise be, given the amount of sunlight that it absorbs – Mars by a few degrees,
Earth by a few tens of degrees, and Venus by several hundred degrees.
Mars is too cold – its water is all frozen. Venus is too hot – the water has boiled into theatmosphere. Earth is just right for life to exist.
Slide 5 - The habitable zone around a star is the zone where liquid water can exist on a planet.
Our sun is an ordinary star, “burning” hydrogen in its core, producing helium by nuclear
fusion, slowly getting brighter. When the solar system was young the sun was 30 percent
dimmer than today and the habitable zone was closer to the sun. Venus was cool enough tohave an ocean. Earth was near the cold limit of the habitable zone. On several occasions Earthfroze all the way to the equator. The most recent “snowball Earth” occurred about 700 million
years ago.
As the sun brightened, Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse effect. The ocean
evaporated, boiling into the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide baked from the Venus crust into theatmosphere. There is no going-back. Venus is permanently outside the habitable zone, locked
forever in a hellish greenhouse with a surface hot enough to melt lead.
Earth is now near the middle of the habitable zone. Earth can never freeze over again.
The sun is now too bright and humans have added greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. A
runaway greenhouse effect will not occur naturally on Earth for several billion years. But if
we burn all fossil fuels, including tar sands and oil shale, it is conceivable that we will hasten

220a runaway greenhouse effect.
How will climate change this century? It depends. It depends mainly on how muchcarbon dioxide humans put into the atmosphere.
Slide 6 - Our understanding of climate change is based most of all on Earth’s history – how
the climate responded in the past to changing boundary conditions such as atmosphericcomposition surface properties. Ongoing global observations are also valuable, showing how
climate is responding to rapid changes of atmospheric composition. Climate models andtheory are helpful in interpreting what is happening and they are needed to predict futurechanges.
Slide 7 - Why should we be concerned about human-made climate change? There have beenhuge climate changes in the past. Is today’s climate the best one? These are reasonable
questions. Indeed, they were statements made on National Public Radio in 2008 by my thenboss’s, boss’s, boss’s boss, the NASA Administrator. Earth’s climate history helps answer suchquestions.
Slide 8 - This is the deep ocean temperature over the past 65 million years. 50 million years
ago Earth was so warm that there were alligators in Alaska – the Arctic was tropical-like.
There were no ice sheets and sea level was about 75 meters (250 feet) higher than today. Earthcooled over the past 50 million years. About 34 million years ago it became cool enough foran ice sheet to form on Antarctica. What caused the great warmth in the first half of thisCenozoic Era, and why did Earth then become cooler?
Slide 9 - The climate change was due mainly to change of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2).
Climate forcings, perturbations of the planet’s energy balance, must be due to changes of theenergy coming into the planet, changes within the atmosphere, or changes on the surface. The
sun’s luminosity increased 0.4 percent over this era, which is a forcing of 1 watt per square
meter. The continents at the beginning of the Cenozoic were already close to their present
latitudes, so the surface forcing was only about 1 watt. But atmospheric CO2 varied from as
little as 170 ppm to more than 1000 ppm, a forcing of more than 10 watts per square meter.
The amount of CO2 naturally in the atmosphere-ocean system depends on the balance
between the source and sink of CO2. The balance changes over time, depending mainly on
continental drift. The source of CO2 is volcanic eruptions, which occur at moving continents
subduct ocean floor. The metamorphosis of carbonates on the ocean floor into denser rocks,
due to high pressure and temperature as the continent rides over the ocean floor, releases CO2
via volcanoes. The main sink of atmospheric CO2 is the weathering process as sediments arecarried by rivers to the ocean and deposited as carbonates on the ocean floor.
Between 60 and 50 million years ago atmospheric CO2 increased rapidly because India
was moving at high speed, about 20 centimeters per year, through the Tethys (Indian) Ocean,which had long been the depocenter for major rivers and thus had a carbonate-rich ocean floor.
When India crashed into Asia, pushing up the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau, this source of221CO2 diminished and the weathering sink increased. So atmospheric CO2 decreased and theplanet cooled over the past 50 million years.
Slide 10 - The lesson from the Cenozoic is that the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere-oceansystem changes naturally via exchange with the Earth’s crust. The imbalance between thesource and sink of CO2 yields a change of atmospheric CO2 of the order of 100 ppm in one
million years, or 1 ten-thousandths of a ppm per year. Humans are now increasing atmospheric
CO2 by about 2 ppm per year, 10,000 times faster than the natural geological change.
The Cenozoic also allows us to estimate that an ice sheet began to form on Antarctica
when CO2 had declined to about 450 ppm. Some scientists estimate a higher amount of
CO2 at the transition. But it is clear that burning all the fossil fuels would produce enoughCO2 to head Earth back toward the ice-free state, a different planet than the one that humans
know.
Slide 11 - Climate also fluctuates on shorter time scales, as shown by this record of Antarctic
temperature for the past 400,000 years. Civilization developed during the Holocene, therelatively stable warm period, now almost 12,000 years long. During the last ice age New Yorkwas under a kilometer of ice and sea level was 350 feet lower.
The glacial to interglacial climate swings are caused by perturbations of Earth’s orbit.
As Jupiter, Saturn and Venus tug at our planet, Earth’s spin axis tilts successively slightly more
toward or away from the sun. Also Earth’s orbit becomes more or less eccentric. Thesechanges alter the amount of sunlight striking the ice sheets in the summer.
As ice sheets melt they expose a darker surface that absorbs more sunlight, causing
Earth to become slightly warmer. The warming ocean releases CO2 to the atmosphere and thegreenhouse effect of this CO2 causes additional warming. Changing ice sheet size andchanging atmospheric CO2 are slow feedbacks that amplify the climate change.
Slide 12 - Indeed, these feedbacks cause almost the entire temperature change. The sea level
record in the top curve tells us how large the ice sheets were. Greenhouse gas amount is
known from bubbles of air trapped in the Antarctic ice sheet as snow piled up.
Multiplying the ice sheet plus greenhouse gas forcings by a climate sensitivity of ¾
degrees Celsius for each watt of forcing yields good agreement with the actual climate change,
as sown by the lower curves. This empirical climate sensitivity includes all fast feedback
processes such as changes of water vapor, clouds, sea ice and aerosols – and it is much moreaccurate than can be obtained from climate models. The climate sensitivity for a specified
greenhouse gas change becomes twice as large if we wait long enough for ice sheets to
respond.
Slide 13 - The climate sensitivity and response time of the climate system are important,because humans have caused greenhouse gases to increase in the past century far outside therange of the past several million years, as shown by the expanded time scale on the right.
Earth has begun to warm, as shown by the lower curve, but much of the warming is still in the222pipeline, due to the long climate response time.
Slide 14 - To understand modern climate change we must know all climate forcings, that is,perturbations to Earth’s energy balance. Greenhouse gases are accurately measured – theycause a large positive (warming) forcing. Human-made fine particles in the air (aerosols)reflect sunlight and thus cause cooling, but it is very uncertain, because it is not measured.
Natural forcings, due to the sun and volcanoes, are probably larger now than in the eighteenth
century, when the sun is believed to have been slightly dimmer and volcanic eruptions weregreater. But the natural forcings are small compared to present human-made forcings.
The net climate forcing is probably between +1 and +2 watts per square meter. Carbon
dioxide is the largest forcing, and as time goes on it will be more and more dominant becauseof its long lifetime in the atmosphere.
Slide 15 - In my University of Iowa talk in 2004 I used this photo of my daughter’s children to
discuss climate forcing. Sophie explains that the net forcing is about 2 watts, equivalent to twotiny light bulbs over each square meter of Earth’s surface. But Connor could only count 1 watt.
Connor may be right. We are not measuring aerosol forcing well enough to know for sure.
So I went back to Sophie and Connor a few years later, when they were older and wiser.
I asked them “what is the net climate forcing?” They said that they don’t know. Well, we can’t
blame them if we adults fail to make the measurements.
But my grandchildren were useful in another way. They forced me to keep speaking
out. I decided that I didn’t want my grandchildren in the future to say “Opa understood what
was happening, but he never made it clear.”
Slide 16 - The upper graph shows estimates of changing climate forcings over the past
century. Greenhouse gas forcing becomes increasingly dominant. Aerosol forcing is very
uncertain, because it is not well measured.
If we use these forcings in a climate model with equilibrium sensitivity ¾°C per watt offorcing, we find good agreement with observed global temperature, as shown in the lower
graph. This agreement could be partly accidental: if we used a model with greater sensitivity
and a smaller climate forcing, or vice versa, we might also get agreement. However, themodel’s sensitivity agrees with the fast-feedback climate sensitivity implied by paleoclimate
data.
Slide 17 - The most fundamental check of the physics is the planet’s energy imbalance. We
anticipate that the planet is out of balance, more energy coming in than emitted to space. That
imbalance is the signature of the greenhouse effect, the smoking gun that can confirm climatechange is being driven by a forcing. Imbalance is expected because greenhouse gases reduce
the planet’s heat radiation to space.
How can we measure Earth’s energy imbalance? Small amounts of energy go into
warming the atmosphere, melting ice, and warming the upper tens of meters of the ground, but223most of the excess energy must go into the ocean, which has enormous heat capacity.
Measuring the ocean’s heat content accurately has been a great challenge, but the data are
improving as more than 2000 ARGO floats have been distributed around the world ocean.
Each float regularly yoyos an instrument package to a depth as great as 2000 meters.
The best data, covering the past 6 years, indicate that the planet is out of energy balanceby at least ½ watt per square meter. These data are for the time of minimum solar irradiancein the 10-12 year solar cycle. Our climate model yields an imbalance of ¾ of a watt averaged
over the solar cycle. I expect we will find close agreement with the model as the observations
extend over the full solar cycle and the entire ocean. The data already show that the planet isout of energy balance, confirming the expected effect of human-made greenhouse gases.
Slide 18 - Global observations reveal effects of Earth’s energy imbalance. The area of Arctic
sea ice began to be measured by satellites in the late 1970s. The area of sea ice at the end of
the melt season has decreased about 30 percent. There are large year-to-year fluctuations
because of weather variations that affect the wind direction and ocean currents. But, becauseof the planet’s energy imbalance, the area of sea ice will continue to decrease on decadal timescales. Unless we restore the planet’s energy balance, we can expect to lose all late-summer
sea ice within the next few decades.
Slide 19 - The area on Greenland that has summer snow melt, shown in red, fluctuates fromyear-to-year, depending on the weather. But the melt area has increased about 50 percent overthe past few decades.
Slide 20 - Meltwater runs to a low spot on the ice sheet and burrows a hole, a vertical shaftthat goes all the way to the base of the ice sheet. This water lubricates the base of the ice sheet.
Slide 21 - Increased meltwater is one of the processes speeding up discharge of giant icebergs
to the ocean. The net effect was once uncertain, because global warming also increases theamount of water vapor in the air, so snowfall over the center of the ice sheet is increasing.
Slide 22 - But beginning in 2002 the gravity satellite, GRACE, began making measurementsof the Earth’s gravitational field with such high precision that we can measure the change ofice sheet mass. The Greenland ice sheet gets heavier in the winter as snowfall piles up andloses mass in the melting season. But overall Greenland is now losing more than 200 cubic
kilometers of ice per year. Antarctica is losing more than 100 cubic kilometers per year. The
data suggest that the rate of mass loss may be increasing.
Slide 23 - Another expected effect of global warming is expansion of subtropical dry regions.
The overturning circulation, rising air in the tropics with subsidence in the subtropics, which
gives rise to the dry subtropics, is expected to expand poleward as the planet warms.
Observations show that expansion by 4 degrees of latitude, averaged over all longitudes, has
occurred already.

224

The expanding subtropics affects the southern United States, the Mediterranean region,
and Australia, for example. It is one of the reasons that Lake Mead and Lake Powell are only
half full.
Slide 24 - The expanding subtropics is also one of the reasons for the increase in fires in thewestern United States, Greece and Australia. With the changing climate the fires burn hotter,making it more difficult for forests to recover.
Slide 25 - Another impact of global warming is the world-wide recession of mountain glaciers.
Glaciers are receding in the Rocky Mountains, the Andes, the Alps, the Himalayas. Glacier
National Park in the United States will need a new name within 25 years, because it will haveno glaciers if greenhouse gases continue to increase.
Loss of glaciers has a practical impact, because in the driest months more than half of
the water in major rivers, such as the Indus and Brahmaputra, is provided by glacier melt
water. Without glaciers, floods from spring snowmelt will be greater and rivers will tend torun dry in the driest months.
Slide 26 - Coral reefs are the rainforests of the ocean, home to more than a quarter of ocean
species. Coral reefs are under stress for several reasons. Two of the most important stresses
are the warming waters and ocean acidification. Warming can cause coral bleaching and deathas the coral expel their symbiotic algae. The ocean becomes relatively more acid as it takes up
carbon dioxide, which is a problem for animals with carbonate shells or skeletons – if thewater becomes too acid it can dissolve carbonates.
Slide 27 - Such phenomena help us assess the atmospheric carbon dioxide amount required
to maintain life on our planet as we know it. Each of these phenomena, including their responses to current levels of atmospheric CO2, lead to the conclusion that the target atmospheric
CO2 amount that we must aim for is less than the current amount, which is 389 ppm in 2010.
The best, most quantitative, assessment is the need to restore planetary energy balance.
Stabilizing climate, stopping global warming, requires restoration of Earth’s energy balance– as long as there is more energy coming in than going out, the planet will keep getting
warmer. The present imbalance is at least ½ watt per square meter. A ½ watt increase ofthermal emission to space can be achieved by reducing atmospheric CO2 by 35-40 ppm.
The optimum CO2 may be somewhat less than 350 ppm, especially if there are future
reductions in atmospheric aerosols. However, adjustments of other forcings such as methaneand black soot can help balance such effects.
For policy purposes all we need to know for the foreseeable future is that the CO2 target
must be “<350 ppm”, if we wish to preserve creation, the planet on which civilization
developed. Bill McKibben and the young people who form the backbone of the organization
350.org have done a remarkable job of publicizing the need for this target. They have succeededin getting more than 100 nations to agree to this target.

225

Slide 28 - What is the practical implication of the “<350 ppm” target? This chart shows theamount of carbon in fossil fuel reservoirs, dark purple areas being the portion that has alreadybeen burned and released into the air. There is a range of estimates for the remaining reserves,which depend in part on whether we will go after “every last drop.”
In order to stop growth of atmospheric CO2 and return to a level below 350 ppm, wemust phase out coal emissions rapidly and leave most of the “other” fossil fuels, the unconventional fuels such as tar sands, in the ground. In that case atmospheric CO2 could peak at avalue between 400 and 425 ppm, depending upon how much of the remaining oil and gas we
exploit.
If we do not go after every last drop of oil and gas, it will be possible to get CO2 backbelow 350 ppm within several decades, provided that we also adopt improved agricultural andforestry practices that cause more CO2 to be stored in the vegetation and soil.
Slide 29 - So it is possible to achieve the 350 ppm CO2 target, but there are 3 essential actions.
First, coal emissions need to be phased out rapidly. Second, the unconventional fossil fuels
should be left in the ground. Third, we should not pursue every last drop of oil and gas.
In other words, we must move on to the clean energy future now, rather than using all
the remaining fossil fuels.
Slide 30 - But what is really happening? The United States has signed an agreement with
Canada for a pipeline to carry tar sands oil to Texas. New coal plants are being built all aroundthe world, some being financed by the World Bank. Environmentally destructive mountaintop
removal continues. Oil is pursued in pristine places. The environmentally destructive practiceof shale fracturing is being developed and implemented to find the last bits of gas.
Slide 31 - There is a huge gap between government rhetoric and policy reality. Leaders saythat we have a “planet in peril,” yet their proposed policies barely differ from business-asusual.
Greenwash is plentiful, but the leaders follow a path of appeasement of fossil fuelspecial interests. There is no Winston Churchill willing to stand up and tell the truth about
what is needed.
International agreements are jury-rigged to allow continued business-as-usual. For
example, the World Bank is allowed to finance new higher efficiency coal plants in developing
countries and count these as a “clean development mechanism”, which allows dirty plants indeveloped countries to continue. Total CO2 emissions actually increase. The science
requirement is that the coal be left in the ground, because fossil fuel CO2 stays in theatmosphere-ocean system for millennia. It does not help to burn it more efficiently.
Slide 32 - CO2 emissions were increasing 1.5 percent per year prior to the Kyoto Protocol.
Subsequently emissions have increased 2.5 percent per year, even with the recent economic
downturn.

226

Slide 33 - Fossil fuel use continues to increase because fossil fuels are the cheapest energy. It
is as certain as the law of gravity: as long as fossil fuels are the cheapest energy their use willcontinue. Fossil fuels are cheapest in part because they are subsidized, but mainly because they
are not made to pay their cost to society – caused by their impact on human health, on theenvironment, and on the future of young people.
The solution is obvious: remove subsidies and put a rising price on carbon – a fee
collected domestically from the fossil fuel companies at the mine or port of entry.
Of course efficiency regulations are also needed, as is technology development – but thesuccess of these depends on having a rising carbon price.
Slide 34 - The public will accept a substantial rising carbon fee only if the money is distributed
to the public. Put the money in the hands of consumers and let the market place choose
technology winners. Those citizens who do not use their resources to reduce their carbon
emissions will soon be paying more in increased energy prices than they get in their green
check.
A carbon fee or tax is the only viable global approach. It requires mainly that theUnited States and China agree upon a carbon price. Europe and Japan would surely thenconsent. Any country not agreeing would have a duty placed on its products made with helpof fossil fuels.
Slide 35 - Cap-and-trade, in contrast, is favored by big banks and fossil fuel interests. In a
multi-trillion dollar carbon market it is impossible to avoid bank involvement. Their highly
skilled, secretive, trading units would make billions, without providing any added value.
Cap-and-trade is proven to be ineffectual in reducing emissions and it cannot be madeglobal. India and China would never accept caps on their economies, nor should they.
Slide 36 - Fee-and-green-check puts money in the public’s hands, a lot of money, stimulating
the economy and stimulating innovation. It is the fastest route to a clean energy future. It
would quickly bring mountaintop removal and tar sands development to an end – it may be theonly way to do that, surely the least painful way.
Slide 37 - Back to the basic issue: stabilizing climate is a matter of intergenerational justice.
Jake, my son’s first child, recently was excited to have a baby sister, who was 2½ days old inthis photo. My parents lived about 90 years, so Jake and Lauren Emma are likely to be aroundmost of this century and feel the full force of climate change.
Jake likes to protect his baby sister, even though she is sometimes a nuisance. Jake is agentle giant, for his age. If you believe long extrapolations, the charts suggest that he may bealmost 2 meters tall eventually. But here is the problem: protecting Lauren Emma may be outof Jake’s control, no matter how big and strong he is.
Today we have pushed the planet close to tipping points. Ice is melting in the Arctic, on
Greenland and Antarctica, and on mountain glaciers worldwide. Many species are stressed by227

environmental destruction and climate change. If fossil fuel emissions continue unabated, sealevel rise and species extinction will accelerate out of humanity’s control. Increasing temperature and atmospheric water vapor will magnify climate extremes, both droughts and floods,
and the storms of our grandchildren will be much more devastating.
Slide 38 - Such intergenerational injustice is foreign to all nations, cultures and religions. Yet
we are saddled with governments who do nothing effective. They think they can set emissions
at whatever level they choose, and they choose it with the help of the fossil fuel industry.
This situation is likely to continue until the public demands that governments do theirjob. But prospects for pressure from the public have been diminished by an effective campaign
to discredit science by those who prefer business-as-usual.
Slide 39 - Yet I see 2 reasons for some optimism. First, China seems capable of making
rational decisions and taking action. China has several incentives to move as rapidly aspractical into clean energies: (1) their high levels of local air and water pollution, (2) the factthat they will suffer more from global warming than most nations, and (3) the economic
advantage that they can gain by being out front in clean energy technologies. Indeed, China isaggressively investing in clean energy technologies.
Will this action by China stimulate the United States and other nations to get moving?
Maybe. But, because of the undue influence of money in Washington and other capitals, I
believe it is essential to involve the judicial branch of governments. As in the case of civilrights, achievement of justice probably requires people standing up for their rights and courts
enforcing them.
Slide 40 - Legal scholars point out that governments have a fiduciary responsibility to manage
the atmospheric trust. The executive and legislative branches of our governments are turninga deaf ear to the science, but the courts have the ability to require the government to makeemission reductions that the science shows to be necessary. Stabilizing climate is a matter ofintergenerational justice that can be enforced.
Young people, and older people who support them, must unite in demanding an effective
approach that preserves our planet. I look forward to working with young people and theirsupporters in developing the scientific and legal case for young people and the planet.
To the young people I say: Stand up for your rights. Demand that the government takethe actions needed to assure a future for you and your children. To the old people I say: we are
not too old to fight. Let us gird up our loins and prepare to fight on the side of young people
for protection of the world that they will inherit.

228

Slide 1
Global Warming Status

Slide 2
Climate Tipping Points

Slide 3First Grandchild, Sophie — at Age Almost Two Years229

Slide 4Goldilocks Planets

Slide 5
Habitable Zone

Slide 6
Basis of Understanding230

Slide 7
Why be concerned about human-made climate change?

Slide 8Global Deep Ocean Temperature

Slide 9Cenozoic Era

231

Slide 10
Summary: Cenozoic Era

Slide 11
Antarctic (Vostok) Temperature

Slide 12
Kyr Before Present

232

Slide 13
Kyr Before 1850

Slide 14
Climate Forcings

Slide 15
Sophie explains 2 watts of forcing to brother Connor.

233

Slide 16
Global Climate Forcings and Temperature Change

Slide 17
Heat Storage in Upper 2000 Meters of Ocean

Slide 18
Arctic Sea Ice Area at Warm Season Minimum234

Slide 19
Greenland Total Melt Area

Slide 20
Surface Melt on Greenland

Slide 21
Jakobshavn Ice Stream in Greenland

235

Slide 22
Gravity Satellite Ice Sheet Mass Measurements

Slide 23
Pier on Lake Mead

Slide 24
Fires are increasing world-wide

236

Slide 25
Himalayan (Rongbuk) Glacier

Slide 26
Stresses on Coral Reefs

Slide 27
Assessment of Target CO2

237

Slide 28
Fossil Fuel Reservoirs & CO2 Scenarios

Slide 29<350 ppm is possible, but…

Slide 30
What's really happening.

238

Slide 31
Global Action Status

Slide 32
Global Fossil Fuel CO2 Annual Emissions

Slide 33
Problem & Solution239

Slide 34
Fee & Green Check (Dividend)

Slide 35
Cap-and-Trade Flaws

Slide 36
Fee & Green Check Addresses

240

Slide 37
Lauren Emma (age 2½ days) and Jake (age 2½ years)

Slide 38
Intergenerational JusticeSlide 39
Notes of Optimism

241

Slide 40
Atmospheric Trust Litigation*242

Major Publications
Dr. James E. Hansen
Selected Publications:
Hansen, J., M. Sato: Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change. arXiv:1105.0968v1.
Hansen, J., M. Sato, P. Kharecha, and K. von Schuckmann, 2011: Earth's energy imbalance and implications.
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 13421-13449, doi:10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011.
Kharecha, P.A., C.F. Kutscher, J.E. Hansen, and E. Mazria, 2010: Options for near-term phaseout of CO2 emissions
from coal use in the United States. Environ. Sci. Technol., 44, 4050-4062, doi:10.1021/es903884a.
Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, and K. Lo, 2010: Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004,
doi:10.1029/2010RG000345.
Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F.S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T.M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke,
H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C.A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P.K. Snyder, R.
Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R.W. Corell, V.J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman,
K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley, 2009: Planetary boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space forhumanity. Ecol. Soc., 14 (2), 32.
Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F.S. Chapin, III, E.F. Lambin, T.M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke,
H.J. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C.A. de Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P.K. Snyder, R.
Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R.W. Corell, V.J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman,
K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J.A. Foley, 2009: A safe operating space for humanity. Nature, 461, 472-475,
doi:10.1038/461472a.
Xu, B., J. Cao, J. Hansen, T. Yao, D.J. Joswia, N. Wang, G. Wu, M. Wang, H. Zhao, W. Yang, X. Liu, and J. He, 2009:Black soot and the survival of Tibetan glaciers. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 106 , 22114-22118, doi:10.1073/pnas.
0910444106.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, D. Beerling, R. Berner, V. Masson-Delmotte, M. Pagani, M. Raymo, D.L.
Royer, and J.C. Zachos, 2008: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Open Atmos. Sci. J., 2,
217-231, doi:10.2174/1874282300802010217.
Kharecha, P.A., and J.E. Hansen, 2008: Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate. Global
Biogeochem. Cycles, 22, GB3012, doi:10.1029/2007GB003142.
Hansen, J., 2008: Tipping Point: Perspective of a Climatologist. In The State of the Wild: A Global Portrait ofWildlife, Wild Lands, and Oceans. E. Fearn, Ed. Wildlife Conservation Society/Island Press, pp. 6-15.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, and 44 co-authors, 2007: Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE.
Clim. Dynam., 29, 661-696, doi:10.1007/s00382-007-0255-8.
Hansen, J., 2007: Climate catastrophe. New Scientist, 195, no. 2614 (July 28), 30-34.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D.W. Lea, and M. Siddall, 2007: Climate change and trace gases.
Phil. Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 365, 1925-1954, doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2052.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, and 44 co-authors, 2007: Dangerous human-made interference with climate: A
GISS modelE study. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 2287-2312.
Hansen, J.E., 2007: Scientific reticence and sea level rise. Environ. Res. Lett., 2, 024002, doi:10.1088/17489326/2/2/024002.
Nazarenko, L., N. Tausnev, and J. Hansen, 2007: The North Atlantic thermohaline circulation simulated by the
GISS climate model during 1970-99. Atmos.-Ocean, 45, 81-92, doi:10.3137/ao.450202.
Mishchenko, M.I., B. Cairns, G. Kopp, C.F. Schueler, B.A. Fafaul, J.E. Hansen, R.J. Hooker, T. Itchkawich, H.B.
Maring, and L.D. Travis, 2007: Precise and accurate monitoring of terrestrial aerosols and total solar irradiance:
Introducing the Glory mission. Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., 88, 677-691, doi:10.1175/BAMS-88-5-677.
Novakov, T., S. Menon, T.W. Kirchstetter, D. Koch, and J.E. Hansen, 2007: Reply to comment by R. L. Tanner and
D. J. Eatough on "Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon ratios: Analysis of published data and implications
for climate forcing". J. Geophys. Res., 112, D02203, doi:10.1029/2006JD007941.
Rahmstorf, S., A. Cazenave, J.A. Church, J.E. Hansen, R.F. Keeling, D.E. Parker, and R.C.J. Somerville, 2007:
Recent climate observations compared to projections. Science, 316, 709, doi:10.1126/science.1136843.
Hansen, J., 2006: The threat to the planet. New York Rev. Books, 53, no. 12 (July 13, 2006), 12-16.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Lo, D.W. Lea, and M. Medina-Elizade, 2006: Global temperature change. Proc.

243

Natl. Acad. Sci., 103, 14288-14293, doi:10.1073/pnas.0606291103.
Nazarenko, L., N. Tausnev, and J. Hansen, 2006: Sea-ice and North Atlantic climate response to CO2-induced
warming and cooling conditions. J. Glaciol., 52, 433-439.
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, P.J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, M.F. Wehner, K. AchutaRao, T.P. Barnett, J.S. Boyle, W.
Brüggemann, M. Fiorino, N. Gillett, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, S.A. Klein, G.A. Meehl, S.C.B. Raper, R.W.
Reynolds, K.E. Taylor, and W.M. Washington, 2006: Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes inAtlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 103, 13905-13910, doi:10.1073/
pnas.0602861103.
Schmidt, G.A., R. Ruedy, J.E. Hansen, I. Aleinov, N. Bell, M. Bauer, S. Bauer, B. Cairns, V. Canuto, Y. Cheng, A.
Del Genio, G. Faluvegi, A.D. Friend, T.M. Hall, Y. Hu, M. Kelley, N.Y. Kiang, D. Koch, A.A. Lacis, J. Lerner,
K.K. Lo, R.L. Miller, L. Nazarenko, V. Oinas, Ja. Perlwitz, Ju. Perlwitz, D. Rind, A. Romanou, G.L. Russell,
Mki. Sato, D.T. Shindell, P.H. Stone, S. Sun, N. Tausnev, D. Thresher, and M.-S. Yao, 2006: Present day
atmospheric simulations using GISS ModelE: Comparison to in-situ, satellite and reanalysis data. J. Climate,19, 153-192, doi:10.1175/JCLI3612.1.
Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, A. Lacis, J. Hansen, R. Ruedy, and E. Aguilar, 2006: Role of tropospheric ozone increases
in 20th century climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D08302, doi:10.1029/2005JD006348.
Shindell, D.T., G. Faluvegi, R.L. Miller, G.A. Schmidt, J.E. Hansen, and S. Sun, 2006: Solar and anthropogenic
forcing of tropical hydrology. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L24706, doi:10.1029/2006GL027468, 2006.
Hansen, J., L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, and 11 co-authors, 2005: Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmationand implications. Science, 308, 1431-1435, doi:10.1126/science.1110252.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, L. Nazarenko, A. Lacis, G.A. Schmidt, G. Russell, and 38 co-authors, 2005:
Efficacy of climate forcings. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D18104, doi:10.1029/2005JD005776.
Hansen, J.E., 2005: A slippery slope: How much global warming constitutes "dangerous anthropogenic interference"? An editorial essay. Climatic Change, 68, 269-279, doi:10.1007/s10584-005-4135-0.
Koch, D., and J. Hansen, 2005: Distant origins of Arctic black carbon: A Goddard Institute for Space Studies
ModelE experiment. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D04204, doi:10.1029/2004JD005296.
Novakov, T., S. Menon, T.W. Kirchstetter, D. Koch, and J.E. Hansen, 2005: Aerosol organic carbon to black carbon
ratios: Analysis of published data and implications for climate forcing. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D21205,
doi:10.1029/2005JD005977.
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, C. Mears, F.J. Wentz, S.A. Klein, D.J. Seidel, K.E. Taylor, P.W. Thorne, M.F. Wehner,
P.J. Gleckler, J.S. Boyle, W.D. Collins, K.W. Dixon, C. Doutriaux, M. Free, Q. Fu, J.E. Hansen, and 8 coauthors, 2005: Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science,
309, 1551-1556, doi:10.1126/science.1114867.
Hansen, J., 2004: Defusing the global warming time bomb. Sci. Amer., 290, no. 3, 68-77.
Hansen, J., T. Bond, B. Cairns, H. Gaeggler, B. Liepert, T. Novakov, and B. Schichtel, 2004: Carbonaceous aerosolsin the industrial era. Eos Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 85, no. 25, 241, 245.
Hansen, J., and L. Nazarenko, 2004: Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 101,
423-428, doi:10.1073/pnas.2237157100.
Hansen, J., and Mki. Sato, 2004: Greenhouse gas growth rates. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 101, 16109-16114,
doi:10.1073/pnas.0406982101.
Mishchenko, M.I., B. Cairns, J.E. Hansen, L.D. Travis, R. Burg, Y.J. Kaufman, J.V. Martins, and E.P. Shettle, 2004:
Monitoring of aerosol forcing of climate from space: Analysis of measurement requirements. J. Quant.
Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer, 88, 149-161, doi:10.1016/j.jqsrt.2004.03.030.
Novakov, T., and J.E. Hansen, 2004: Black carbon emissions in the United Kingdom during the past four decades:
An empirical analysis. Atmos. Environ., 38, 4155-4163, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2004.04.031.
Hansen, J., 2003: Can we defuse the global warming time bomb? naturalScience, posted Aug. 1, 2003.
Novakov, T., V. Ramanathan, J.E. Hansen, T.W. Kirchstetter, Mki. Sato, J.E. Sinton, and J.A. Satahye, 2003:
Large historical changes of fossil-fuel black carbon aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, no. 6, 1324,
doi:10.1029/2002GL016345.
Santer, B.D., R. Sausen, T.M.L. Wigley, J.S. Boyle, K. AchutaRao, C. Doutriaux, J.E. Hansen, G.A. Meehl, E.
Roeckner, R. Ruedy, G. Schmidt, and K.E. Taylor, 2003: Behavior of tropopause height and atmospherictemperature in models, reanalyses, and observations: Decadal changes. J. Geophys. Res., 108, no. D1, 4002,
doi:10.1029/2002JD002258.

244

Sato, Mki., J. Hansen, D. Koch, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, O. Dubovik, B. Holben, M. Chin, and T. Novakov, 2003: Global
atmospheric black carbon inferred from AERONET. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 100, 6319-6324, doi:10.1073/
pnas.0731897100.
Sun, S., and J.E. Hansen, 2003: Climate simulations for 1951-2050 with a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. J.
Climate, 16, 2807-2826, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2807:CSFWAC>2.0.CO;2.
Carmichael, G.R., D.G. Streets, G. Calori, M. Amann, M.Z. Jacobson, J. Hansen, and H. Ueda, 2002: Changing
trends in sulfur emissions in Asia: Implications for acid deposition. Environ. Sci. Tech, 36, 4707-4713,
doi:10.1021/es011509c.
Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, and K. Lo, 2002: Global warming continues. Science, 295, 275,
doi:10.1126/science.295.5553.275c.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, L. Nazarenko, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, D. Koch, I. Tegen, T. Hall,and 20 co-authors, 2002:
Climate forcings in Goddard Institute for Space Studies SI2000 simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 107, no. D18,4347, doi:10.1029/2001JD001143.
Hansen, J.E. (Ed.), 2002: Air Pollution as a Climate Forcing: A Workshop. NASA Goddard Institute for SpaceStudies.
Hansen, J.E., 2002: A brighter future. Climatic Change, 52, 435-440, doi:10.1023/A:1014226429221.
Menon, S., J.E. Hansen, L. Nazarenko, and Y. Luo, 2002: Climate effects of black carbon aerosols in China andIndia. Science, 297, 2250-2253, doi:10.1126/science.1075159.
Robinson, W.A., R. Ruedy, and J.E. Hansen, 2002: General circulation model simulations of recent cooling in theeast-central United States. J. Geophys. Res., 107, no. D24, 4748, doi:10.1029/2001JD001577.
Hansen, J.E., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, M. Imhoff, W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, and T. Karl, 2001: A
closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 23947-23963,
doi:10.1029/2001JD000354.
Hansen, J.E., and Mki. Sato, 2001: Trends of measured climate forcing agents. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 98, 1477814783, doi:10.1073/pnas.261553698.
Nazarenko, L., J. Hansen, N. Tausnev, and R. Ruedy, 2001: Response of the Northern Hemisphere sea ice togreenhouse forcing in a global climate model. Ann. Glaciol., 33, 513-520.
Oinas, V., A.A. Lacis, D. Rind, D.T. Shindell, and J.E. Hansen, 2001: Radiative cooling by stratospheric water
vapor: Big differences in GCM results. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2791-2794, doi:10.1029/2001GL013137.
Santer, B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, C. Doutriaux, J.S. Boyle, J.E. Hansen, P.D. Jones, G.A. Meehl, E. Roeckner, S.
Sengupta, and K.E. Taylor, 2001: Accounting for the effects of volcanoes and ENSO in comparisons ofmodeled and observed temperature trends. J. Geophys. Res., 106, 28033-28059, doi:10.1029/2000JD000189.
Streets, D.G., K. Jiang, X. Hu, J.E. Sinton, X.-Q. Zhang, D. Xu, M.Z. Jacobson, and J.E. Hansen, 2001: Recent
reductions in China's greenhouse gas emissions. Science, 294, 1835-1837, doi:10.1126/science.1065226.
Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, Mki. Sato, L. Nazarenko, N. Tausnev, I. Tegen, and D. Koch, 2000: Climate
modeling in the global warming debate. In General Circulation Model Development. D. Randall, Ed. Academic
Press, pp. 127-164.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and V. Oinas, 2000: Global warming in the twenty-first century: An
alternative scenario. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 97, 9875-9880, doi:10.1073/pnas.170278997.
Hansen, J.E., 2000: The Sun's role in long-term climate change. Space Sci. Rev., 94, 349-356,
doi:10.1023/A:1026748129347.
Lacis, A.A., B.E. Carlson, and J.E. Hansen, 2000: Retrieval of atmospheric NO2, O3, aerosol optical depth, effective
radius and variance information from SAGE II multi-spectral extinction measurements. Appl. Math. Comput.,
116, 133-151, doi:10.1016/S0096-3003(99)00200-3.
Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, J. Glascoe, and Mki. Sato, 1999: GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys.
Res., 104, 30997-31022, doi:10.1029/1999JD900835.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, J. Glascoe, and R. Ruedy, 1998: A common sense climate index: Is climate changing
noticeably? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, 4113-4120.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, I. Tegen, and E. Matthews, 1998: Perspective: Climate forcings in theindustrial era. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci., 95, 12753-12758.
Hansen, J.E., 1998: Book review of Sir John Houghton's Global Warming: The Complete Briefing. J. Atmos. Chem.,
30, 409-412.
Hansen, J.E., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, and J. Glascoe, 1998: Global climate data and models: A reconciliation.

245

Science, 281, 930-932, doi:10.1126/science.281.5379.930.
Matthews, E., and J. Hansen (Eds.), 1998: Land Surface Modeling: A Mini-Workshop. NASA Goddard Institute forSpace Studies.
Hansen, J., C. Harris, C. Borenstein, B. Curran, and M. Fox, 1997: Research education. J. Geophys. Res., 102,
25677-25678, doi:10.1029/97JD02172.
Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, G. Russell, Mki. Sato, J. Lerner, D. Rind, and P. Stone, 1997: Wonderland climate
model. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 6823-6830, doi:10.1029/96JD03435.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, A. Lacis, and R. Ruedy, 1997: The missing climate forcing. Phil. Trans. Royal Soc. London
B, 352, 231-240.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1997: Radiative forcing and climate response. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 68316864, doi:10.1029/96JD03436.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, K. Asamoah, K. Beckford, S. Borenstein, E. Brown, B. Cairns, B.
Carlson, B. Curran, S. de Castro, L. Druyan, P. Etwarrow, T. Ferede, M. Fox, D. Gaffen, J. Glascoe, H. Gordon,
S. Hollandsworth, X. Jiang, C. Johnson, N. Lawrence, J. Lean, J. Lerner, K. Lo, J. Logan, A. Luckett, M.P.
McCormick, R. McPeters, R.L. Miller, P. Minnis, I. Ramberran, G. Russell, P. Russell, P. Stone, I. Tegen, S.
Thomas, L. Thomason, A. Thompson, J. Wilder, R. Willson, and J. Zawodny, 1997: Forcings and chaos ininterannual to decadal climate change. J. Geophys. Res., 102, 25679-25720, doi:10.1029/97JD01495.
Hansen, J., R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, and R. Reynolds, 1996: Global surface air temperature in 1995: Return to prePinatubo level. Geophys. Res. Lett., 23, 1665-1668, doi:10.1029/96GL01040.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, A. Lacis, K. Asamoah, S. Borenstein, E. Brown, B. Cairns, G. Caliri, M. Campbell,
B. Curran, S. de Castro, L. Druyan, M. Fox, C. Johnson, J. Lerner, M.P. McCormick, R.L. Miller, P. Minnis, A.
Morrison, L. Pandolfo, I. Ramberran, F. Zaucker, M. Robinson, P. Russell, K. Shah, P. Stone, I. Tegen, L.
Thomason, J. Wilder, and H. Wilson, 1996: A Pinatubo climate modeling investigation. In The Mount Pinatubo
Eruption: Effects on the Atmosphere and Climate, NATO ASI Series Vol. I 42. G. Fiocco, D. Fua, and G.
Visconti, Eds. Springer-Verlag, pp. 233-272.
Hansen, J., W. Rossow, B. Carlson, A. Lacis, L. Travis, A. Del Genio, I. Fung, B. Cairns, M. Mishchenko, and Mki.
Sato, 1995: Low-cost long-term monitoring of global climate forcings and feedbacks. Climatic Change, 31,
247-271, doi:10.1007/BF01095149.
Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1995: Long-term changes of the diurnal temperature cycle: Implications aboutmechanisms of global climate change. Atmos. Res., 37, 175-209, doi:10.1016/0169-8095(94)00077-Q.
Hansen, J., H. Wilson, Mki. Sato, R. Ruedy, K. Shah, and E. Hansen, 1995: Satellite and surface temperature data
at odds? Climatic Change, 30, 103-117, doi:10.1007/BF01093228.
Hansen, J., 1993: Climate forcings and feedbacks. In Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings andFeedbacks, NASA CP-3234. J. Hansen, W. Rossow, and I. Fung, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space
Administration, pp. 6-12.
Hansen, J., 1993: Climsat rationale. In Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks, NASA
CP-3234. J. Hansen, W. Rossow, and I. Fung, Eds. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, pp. 26-35.
Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, Mki. Sato, and H. Wilson, 1993: How sensitive is the world's climate? Natl. Geog.
Soc. Res. Exploration, 9, 142-158.
Hansen, J., W. Rossow, and I. Fung (Eds.), 1993: Long-Term Monitoring of Global Climate Forcings and Feedbacks.
NASA CP-3234. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Hansen, J., and H. Wilson, 1993: Commentary on the significance of global temperature records. Climatic Change,
25, 185-191, doi:10.1007/BF01661206.
Pollack, J.B., D. Rind, A. Lacis, J.E. Hansen, Mki. Sato, and R. Ruedy, 1993: GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol
forcing. Part I: Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations. J. Climate, 6, 1719-1742,
doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<1719:GSOVAF>2.0.CO;2.
Sato, Mki., J.E. Hansen, M.P. McCormick, and J.B. Pollack, 1993: Stratospheric aerosol optical depths, 1850-1990.
J. Geophys. Res., 98, 22987-22994, doi:10.1029/93JD02553.
Charlson, R.J., S.E. Schwartz, J.M. Hales, R.D. Cess, J.A. Coakley, Jr., J.E. Hansen, and D.J. Hoffman, 1992:
Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols. Science, 255, 423-430, doi:10.1126/science.255.5043.423.
Hansen, J., A. Lacis, R. Ruedy, and Mki. Sato, 1992: Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 215-218, doi:10.1029/91GL02788.
Lacis, A., J. Hansen, and Mki. Sato, 1992: Climate forcing by stratospheric aerosols. Geophys. Res. Lett., 19, 1607-

246

1610, doi:10.1029/92GL01620.
Hansen, J., D. Rind, A. Del Genio, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, M. Prather, R. Ruedy, and T. Karl, 1991: Regional
greenhouse climate effects. In Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climatic Change: A Critical Appraisal of Simulations
and Observations. M.E. Schlesinger, Ed. Elsevier, pp. 211-229.
Hansen, J., W. Rossow, and I. Fung, 1990: The missing data on global climate change. Issues Sci. Technol., 7, 62-69.
Hansen, J.E., and A.A. Lacis, 1990: Sun and dust versus greenhouse gases: An assessment of their relative roles in
global climate change. Nature, 346, 713-719, doi:10.1038/346713a0.
Hansen, J.E., A.A. Lacis, and R.A. Ruedy, 1990: Comparison of solar and other influences on long-term climate.
In Climate Impact of Solar Variability, NASA CP-3086. K.H. Schatten and A. Arking, Eds. National Aeronautics
and Space Administration, pp. 135-145.
Lorius, C., J. Jouzel, D. Raynaud, J. Hansen, and H. Le Treut, 1990: The ice-core record: Climate sensitivity andfuture greenhouse warming. Nature, 347, 139-145, doi:10.1038/347139a0.
Rind, D., R. Goldberg, J. Hansen, C. Rosenzweig, and R. Ruedy, 1990: Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought. J. Geophys. Res., 95, 9983-10004.
Hansen, J., A. Lacis, and M. Prather, 1989: Greenhouse effect of chlorofluorocarbons and other trace gases. J.
Geophys. Res., 94, 16417-16421.
Hansen, J., D. Rind, A. Del Genio, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, M. Prather, R. Ruedy, and T. Karl, 1989: Regional greenhouse climate effects. In Coping with Climatic Change: Proceedings of the Second North American Conference
on Preparing for Climate Change. J.C. Topping, Jr., Ed. The Climate Institute.
Hansen, J., I. Fung, A. Lacis, D. Rind, Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, G. Russell, and P. Stone, 1988: Global climate changes
as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 9341-9364,
doi:10.1029/88JD00231.
Hansen, J., and S. Lebedeff, 1988: Global surface air temperatures: Update through 1987. Geophys. Res. Lett., 15,323-326, doi:10.1029/88GL02067.
Hansen, J.E., and S. Lebedeff, 1987: Global trends of measured surface air temperature. J. Geophys. Res., 92,
13345-13372.
Ramanathan, V., L. Callis, R. Cess, J. Hansen, I. Isaksen, W. Kuhn, A. Lacis, F. Luther, J. Mahlman, R. Reck, and
M. Schlesinger, 1987: Climate-chemical interactions and effects of changing atmospheric trace gases. Rev.
Geophys., 25, 1441-1482.
Hunten, D.M., L. Colin, and J.E. Hansen, 1986: Atmospheric science on the Galileo mission. Space Sci. Rev., 44,
191-240, doi:10.1007/BF00200817.
Bennett, T., W. Broecker, and J. Hansen (Eds.), 1985: North Atlantic Deep Water Formation. NASA CP-2367.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Hansen, J., G. Russell, A. Lacis, I. Fung, D Rind, and P. Stone, 1985: Climate response times: Dependence on
climate sensitivity and ocean mixing. Science, 229, 857-859, doi:10.1126/science.229.4716.857.
Hansen, J.E., 1986: Geophysics: Global sea level trends. Nature, 313, 349-350.
Hansen, J., A. Lacis, and D. Rind, 1984: Climate trends due to increasing greenhouse gases. In Proceedings of the Third
Symposium on Coastal and Ocean Management, ASCE/San Diego, California, June 1-4, 1983, pp. 2796-2810.
Hansen, J., A. Lacis, D. Rind, G. Russell, P. Stone, I. Fung, R. Ruedy, and J. Lerner, 1984: Climate sensitivity: Analysis of feedback mechanisms. In Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity, AGU Geophysical Monograph
29, Maurice Ewing Vol. 5. J.E. Hansen and T. Takahashi, Eds. American Geophysical Union, pp. 130-163.
Hansen, J.E., and T. Takahashi (Eds.), 1984: Climate Processes and Climate Sensitivity. AGU Geophysical
Monograph 29, Maurice Ewing Vol. 5. American Geophysical Union.
Rind, D., R. Suozzo, A. Lacis, G. Russell, and J. Hansen, 1984: 21 Layer Troposphere-Stratosphere Climate Model.
NASA TM-86183. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Hansen, J., V. Gornitz, S. Lebedeff, and E. Moore, 1983: Global mean sea level: Indicator of climate change?
Science, 219, 997.
Hansen, J., G. Russell, D. Rind, P. Stone, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, R. Ruedy, and L. Travis, 1983: Efficient threedimensional global models for climate studies: Models I and II. M. Weather Rev., 111, 609-662,
doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1983)111<0609:ETDGMF>2.0.CO;2.
Pinto, J.P., D. Rind, G.L. Russell, J.A. Lerner, J.E. Hansen, Y.L. Yung, and S. Hameed, 1983: A general circulation
model study of atmospheric carbon monoxide. J. Geophys. Res., 88, 3691-3702.
Gornitz, V., S. Lebedeff, and J. Hansen, 1982: Global sea level trend in the past century. Science, 215, 1611-1614,247

doi:10.1126/science.215.4540.1611.
Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell, 1981: Climate impact of increasing
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science, 213, 957-966, doi:10.1126/science. 213.4511.957.
Lacis, A., J. Hansen, P. Lee, T. Mitchell, and S. Lebedeff, 1981: Greenhouse effect of trace gases, 1970-1980.
Geophys. Res. Lett., 8, 1035-1038.
Hansen, J., 1980: Book review of Theory of Planetary Atmospheres by J.W. Chamberlain. Icarus, 41, 175-176.
Hansen, J.E., A.A. Lacis, P. Lee, and W.-C. Wang, 1980: Climatic effects of atmospheric aerosols. Ann. New York
Acad. Sciences, 338, 575-587.
Kawabata, K., D.L. Coffeen, J.E. Hansen, W.A. Lane, Mko. Sato, and L.D. Travis, 1980: Cloud and haze properties
from Pioneer Venus polarimetry. J. Geophys. Res., 85, 8129-8140.
Sato, Mki., and J.E. Hansen, 1979: Jupiter's atmospheric composition and cloud structure deduced from absorption
bands in reflected sunlight. J. Atmos. Sci., 36, 1133-1167, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1979)036<1133:JACACS>
2.0.CO;2.
Travis, L.D., D.L. Coffeen, A.D. Del Genio, J.E. Hansen, K. Kawabata, A.A. Lacis, W.A. Lane, S.A. Limaye, W.B.
Rossow, and P.H. Stone, 1979: Cloud images from the Pioneer Venus orbiter. Science, 205, 74-76,
doi:10.1126/science.205.4401.74.
Travis, L.D., D.L. Coffeen, J.E. Hansen, K. Kawabata, A.A. Lacis, W.A. Lane, S.A. Limaye, and P.H. Stone, 1979:
Orbiter cloud photopolarimeter investigation. Science, 203, 781-785, doi:10.1126/science.203.4382.781.
Hansen, J.E., W.-C. Wang, and A.A. Lacis, 1978: Mount Agung eruption provides test of a global climatic
perturbation. Science, 199, 1065-1068, doi:10.1126/science.199.4333.1065.
Knollenberg, R.G., J. Hansen, B. Ragent, J. Martonchik, and M. Tomasko, 1977: The clouds of Venus. Space Sci.
Rev., 20, 329-354, doi:10.1007/BF02186469.
Lillie, C.F., C.W. Hord, K. Pang, D.L. Coffeen, and J.E. Hansen, 1977: The Voyager mission Photopolarimeter
Experiment. Space Sci. Rev., 21, 159-181, doi:10.1007/BF00200849.
Sato, Mki., K. Kawabata, and J.E. Hansen, 1977: A fast invariant imbedding method for multiple scattering
calculations and an application to equivalent widths of CO2 lines on Venus. Astrophys. J., 216, 947-962.
Schubert, G., C.C. Counselman, III, J. Hansen, S.S. Limaye, G. Pettengill, A. Seiff, I.I. Shapiro, V.E. Suomi, F.
Taylor, L. Travis, R. Woo, and R.E. Young, 1977: Dynamics, winds, circulation and turbulence in the atmosphereof Venus. Space Sci. Rev., 20, 357-387, doi:10.1007/BF02186459.
Kawata, Y., and J.E. Hansen, 1976: Circular polarization of sunlight reflected by Jupiter. In Jupiter: Studies of theInterior, Atmosphere, Magneteosphere, and Satellites. T. Gehrels, Ed. University of Arizona Press, pp. 516-530.
Somerville, R.C.J., W.J. Quirk, J.E. Hansen, A.A. Lacis, and P.H. Stone, 1976: A search for short-term meteorologicaleffects of solar variability in an atmospheric circulation model. J. Geophys. Res., 81, 1572-1576.
Wang, W.-C., Y.L. Yung, A.A. Lacis, T. Mo, and J.E. Hansen, 1976: Greenhouse effects due to man-madeperturbation of trace gases. Science, 194, 685-690, doi:10.1126/science.194.4266.685.
Hansen, J.E. (Ed.), 1975: The Atmosphere of Venus. NASA SP-382. National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Kawabata, K., and J.E. Hansen, 1975: Interpretation of the variation of polarization over the disk of Venus. J. Atmos.
Sci., 32, 1133-1139, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<1133:IOTVOP>2.0.CO;2.
Hansen, J.E., and J.W. Hovenier, 1974: Interpretation of the polarization of Venus. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1137-1160,
doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<1137:IOTPOV>2.0.CO;2.
Hansen, J.E., and L.D. Travis, 1974: Light scattering in planetary atmospheres. Space Sci. Rev., 16, 527-610,
doi:10.1007/BF00168069.
Lacis, A.A., and J.E. Hansen, 1974: A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation in the Earth's
atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 118-133, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0118:APFTAO>2.0.CO;2.
Lacis, A.A., and J.E. Hansen, 1974: Atmosphere of Venus: Implications of Venera 8 sunlight measurements.
Science, 184, 979-983, doi:10.1126/science.184.4140.979.
Somerville, R.C.J., P.H. Stone, M. Halem, J.E. Hansen, J.S. Hogan, L.M. Druyan, G. Russell, A.A. Lacis, W.J.
Quirk, and J. Tenenbaum, 1974: The GISS model of the global atmosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 84-117,
doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<0084:TGMOTG>2.0.CO;2.
Whitehill, L.P., and J.E. Hansen, 1973: On the interpretation of the "inverse phase effect" for CO2 equivalent widths
on Venus. Icarus, 20, 146-152, doi:10.1016/0019-1035(73)90047-X.
Hansen, J.E., 1971: Multiple scattering of polarized light in planetary atmospheres. Part I. The doubling method. J.
Atmos. Sci., 28, 120-125, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0120:MSOPLI>2.0.CO;2.

248

Hansen, J.E., 1971: Multiple scattering of polarized light in planetary atmospheres. Part II. Sunlight reflected byterrestrial water clouds. J. Astmos. Sci., 28, 1400-1426, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1400:MSOPLI>2.
0.CO;2.
Hansen, J.E., 1971: Circular polarization of sunlight reflected by clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 1515-1516,
doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<1515:CPOSRB>2.0.CO;2.
Liou, K.-N., and J.E Hansen, 1971: Intensity and polarization for single scattering by polydisperse spheres: A
comparison of ray optics and Mie theory. J. Atmos. Sci., 28, 995-1004,
doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1971)028<0995:IAPFSS>2.0.CO;2.
Hansen, J.E., and J.B. Pollack, 1970: Near-infrared light scattering by terrestrial clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 27, 265-281,
doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1970)027<0265:NILSBT>2.0.CO;2.
Hansen, J.E., 1969: Absorption-line formation in a scattering planetary atmosphere: A test of Van de Hulst's
similarity relations. Astrophys. J., 158, 337-349.
Hansen, J.E., 1969: Exact and approximate solutions for multiple scattering by cloud and hazy planetary atmospheres. J. Atmos. Sci., 26, 478-487, doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1969)026<0478:EAASFM>2.0.CO;2.
Hansen, J.E., 1969: Radiative transfer by doubling very thin layers. Astrophys. J., 155, 565-573, doi:10.1086/149892.
Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1969: Theoretical spectral scattering of ice clouds in the near infrared. J. Geophys.
Res., 74, 3337-3346.
Hansen, J.E., and H. Cheyney, 1968: Near infrared reflectivity of Venus and ice clouds. J. Atmos. Sci., 25, 629-633,
doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1968)025<0629:NIROVA>2.0.CO;2.
Hansen, J.E., and S. Matsushima, 1967: The atmosphere and surface temperature of Venus: A dust insulation
model. Astrophys. J., 150, 1139-1157.
Matsushima, S., J.R. Zink, and J.E. Hansen, 1966: Atmospheric extinction by dust particles as determined fromthree-color photometry of the lunar eclipse of 19 December 1964. Astron. J., 71, 103-110.

249

Profile

Sir Bob Watson
Chief Scientific Adviser of the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs(DEFRA)
Chair of Environmental Science and Science Director at Tyndall Centre for Climate Change
Research, the University of East Anglia
Education and Academic and Professional Activities
1948
Born in UK
1969
Receives a bachelor’s degree in chemistry at Queen Mary College, Universityof London
1973
Receives a doctorate in reaction kinetics at Queen Mary College, University of
London1976-1987 Appointed as a scientist at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
1980-1987 Acts as Deputy Program Scientist at NASA
1980-2006 Co-chairs scientific assessments of the Ozone Layer for World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO)/United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
1987-1990 Serves as Branch Chief for Upper Atmospheric Research and Stratospheric
Chemistry Program of NASA’s Earth Science and Applications Division
1989
Designated member of UNEP’s “The Global 500: The Roll of Honor for
Environmental Achievement”
1991-1994 Chairs the U.N. Global Environment Facility (GEF) Scientific and TechnicalAdvisory Panel
1991
American Geophysical Union's Edward A. Flinn, III Award established torecognize individuals who personify the American Geophysical Union's mottoof unselfish cooperation in research through their facilitating coordination andimplementing activities (first recipient)
1992
US National Academy of Sciences Award for Scientific Reviewing
1993-1995 Chairs the Global Biodiversity Assessment for United Nations Environment
Program
1993-1996 Associate Director for the Environment in the Office of Science and Technology
Policy of the Executive Office of the President of the United States (under the
Clinton Administration)
1993-1997 Co-chairs the IPCC Working Group II
1993
American Meteorological Society Special Award “for notable efforts in organizing and conducting international assessments in ozone depletion and globalchange”
American Association for the Advancement of Science Award for Scientific
Freedom and Responsibility
250

1996
1997

1997-2002
2000-2005
2003-2008
2003

2006
2007

2007
2008

Joins the World Bank as Senior Scientific Adviser in the Environmental
Department
Becomes Head of the Environment Sector Board of the World Bank and later
Chief Scientist and Director for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable
Development
Chairs IPCC
Co-chairs Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Directs the International assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology
for Development
Global Green Award for International Environmental Leadership – US chapterof the Green Cross International formed by Mikhail Gorbachev
Honorary “Companion of the Order of Saint Michael and Saint George” fromthe United Kingdom
Zayed science award for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Appointed Chief Scientific Adviser of the UK Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
Becomes Chair of Environmental Science and Science Director at Tyndall
Centre for Climate Change Research, the University of East Anglia (England)Nobel Peace Prize for the IPCC, chaired from 1997-2001
American Association for the Advancement of Science Award for International
Scientific Cooperation

Sir Watson worked on the study of the creation and depletion of the Ozone Layer at the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Leading numerous scientists, heproduced scientific evidence of human-induced depletion of the Ozone Layer which led to theMontreal Protocol which incorporated the reduction of ozone depleting substances. In thisway, Sir Watson has made a significant contribution to the enactment of the Protocol. Later, as
Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), he took the initiative indeveloping the Synthesis Report of the Third Assessment Report. In particular, he played asignificant role in successfully completing the detailed review by national governments fromaround the world of the Synthesis Report, coordinating and bridging science and policy andachieving an international consensus on the need to ratify the Kyoto Protocol to the United
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). He also served as the first
Chair of the Science and Technical Advisory Panel to the Global Environmental Facility(GEF), and held other important positions at the World Bank and other organizations. As
Associate Director for the Environment in the Office of Science and Technology Policy under
the Clinton Administration, he testified dozens of times before committees and subcommitteesof the US Senate and House of Representatives on conservation issues. He emphasized theimportance of environmental issues. Devoted to the facilitation of cooperation between scienceand government policy, he has communicated with related government officials and has helped
them make policy decisions. The amount of contribution he has made to policy-making by251

national governments and international frameworks, a necessity and the foundation for theconservation of the global environment, is tremendous.
Depletion of the Ozone Layer and Preventive Actions
Sir Watson received a bachelor’s degree and a doctorate in chemistry at Queen Mary College,
University of London (England) in 1969 and 1973, respectively. Later, he worked as a
postdoctoral fellow at the University of Maryland and the University of California, Berkeley(United States) before establishing a research group at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) of
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). He was purely academic bynature. As a result of the reputation he gained with his doctoral thesis on halogen chemistryresearch, however, he began to work on a more realistic issue, “depletion of the ozone layer
resultant from the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).” It was already a known fact that
depletion of the ozone layer would increase harmful ultraviolet rays reaching the earth’s
surface, which could increase the occurrences of dermal cancer, conjunctivitis and otherserious diseases. In this way he grew motivated to work on the important issue of the global
environment.
In 1980 he moved to the headquarters of NASA located in Washington, D.C., as amanager of the upper atmosphere research program and had the opportunity to work withleading numerous scientists studying the depletion of the Ozone Layer. He developed skills
and strategies to control and manage the NASA program which was growing more enormousand complex. The most important part of the strategies was the way he adeptly ran theorganization by acknowledging the unique values and abilities of scientists and motivatingthem to a higher goal irrespective of differences in their organization or affiliation. He appealed
to the pride of researchers and successfully encouraged them to deepen their involvement in
the program. This approach to running the organization gained the support of numerous
researchers.
To proceed with a big program aimed at the scientific elucidation of ozone layer
depletion, he developed a relationship of trust with Dr. Dan Albritton, Director of the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and helped realize the cooperation offormer rivals: NASA and NOAA. The two organizations cooperated with each other and madesignificant achievements by communicating to policymakers the importance of scientificactions against the crisis and threat posed by a hole in the ozone layer. In cooperation with Dr.
Albritton, he sent a team of scientists to the Antarctic in 1986. Dr. Susan Solomon, then an
NOAA-affiliated scientist, was appointed the chief of the team. Dr. Solomon’s team performed
balloon observations and sample analysis experiments near the ground, and strongly suggested
that the ozone layer depletion could be attributable to an artificial cause, namely chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), rather than a natural weather phenomenon. The validity of the report
was demonstrated the following year, by an analysis of upper air atmosphere performed in thestratosphere using a high-altitude plane (ER2). Their suggestion became a scientifically
undeniable fact. With the latest scientific data, he joined Dr. Albritton in attending meetings
for the ratification of the Montreal Protocol, which was negotiated in 1987. They explained togovernment officials from participating nations the fact that the cause of the Ozone Layer

252

depletion was chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and endorsed ratification of the Montreal Protocol
which incorporated a 50% reduction of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) by 2000. Then-President
Reagan signed the Montreal Protocol and said it would boost the development of newtechnologies. He tackled ozone layer depletion, the biggest environmental issue at that time,and influenced the whole world toward the pursuit of solutions.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
From 1997 to 2002, Sir Watson chaired the IPCC and led the review of scientific, technicaland socio-economic studies on global warming. In 2001, the IPCC published its Third
Assessment Report. The Bush Administration ordered the US National Research Council(NRC) to review the report. The NRC said the IPCC Third Assessment Report (especially
Working Group I1 and technical summary) deserved a lot of praise as a study on climate
science2. This statement enhanced confidence in the IPCC report.
The Third Assessment Report is important in that it included a Synthesis Report, which
said there was strong evidence that the progression of global warming was undeniable and wasdue to human activities; that the human-induced climate change was expected to persist for
centuries; and that the prevention of global warming would require comprehensive actions:continued technical development and overcoming of socio-economic difficulties. The
introduction to the Synthesis Report defines the essence of the report as “integration andsummarization of information that is policy-relevant and is not policy-prescriptive.” Thedefinition means that the Synthesis Report aims to cover all policy-relevant matters and tocontinually inform them by using expressions that contribute to policy-making, and that theSynthesis Report represents advice from the scientists’ view and is not meant to tellpolicymakers what to do. This strongly conveys the attitude of Sir Watson toward realisticallysolving climate issues without deviating from his position as a scientist or limiting the role of
the Synthesis Report to mere scientific remarks.
The basic details of the report were decided by scientists. The line by line wording of
the report required consent by government officials from around the world. The coordination
activities needed between scientists and government officials was all about putting scientificremarks into the most appropriate language for policymakers. Discussions for coordination
were focused on a relationship between “accuracy, balance and clarity of message” in wordingand “policies and interpretations.” The approval of the Synthesis Report of the IPCC Third
Assessment Report, led by Sir Watson, involved many people consisting of delegations from100 countries, 10 non-governmental organizations and 42 scientists. Assuming leadership of
this large organization, he summarized important points and submitted them to the IPCC
plenary. By facilitating close exchange between science and policy, he contributed to making
important policies, set an exemplary precedent for collaboration and coordination between
scientists and policymakers and is now referred to as the master of uniting government officials
and scientists.
Most remarkably, he drastically changed the whole world’s view on climate change
through the IPCC report which led to important changes of policy designed for the reductionof greenhouse gases at regional, national and international levels.

253

Facilitation of Environmental Policies
Sir Watson chaired the Scientific and Technical Advisory Panel of the U.N. Global Environment
Facility (GEF) and the international Global Biodiversity Assessment and Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and has held
important positions at many other international organizations. His administrative andmanagerial abilities were thoroughly exhibited in his commitments to the conservation of the
global environment. From 1996 to 2007, he acted as Chief Scientist and Director for
Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development at the World Bank. He was devoted torevitalizing scientific programs at the World Bank. In line with the aim of the World Bank,
namely relief from poverty and development of a sustainable society, he facilitated international
exchanges of scientists and endeavored to help developing nations improve their scientificabilities. As Associate Director for the Environment in the Office of Science and Technology
Policy under the Clinton Administration, he testified dozens of times before committees andsubcommittees of the US Senate and House of Representatives on conservation issues. He
explained the causal relationship among human economic activities, depletion of the ozone
layer and global warming as well as the impact and damage that could result as a consequence,
explaining to the whole world the graveness of environmental issues. Mr. Al Gore, former US
Vice President, described Sir Watson as a “Hero of the Planet” in a letter written to a senior
US government official.
The Sir Watson has devoted himself to the facilitation of cooperation between scienceand government policy, disseminated important information and views on science and helped
government officials make policy decisions by keeping in contact with them. The size of thecontribution he has made to policymaking by national governments and internationalframeworks, a necessity and the foundation for conservation of the global environment, istremendous.
Notes
1. IPCC Working Group I (designed for scientific, technical and social-scientific assessment of climate change)
2. Committee on the Science of Climate Change, NRC (2001)

254

EssayCurrent and Projected State of the Global and Regional Environment:
Implications for Environmental, Economic and Social Sustainability
Sir Bob Watson
Most countries are attempting to achieve environmentally and socially sustainable economic
growth, coupled with food, water, energy and human security at a time of enormous globalchanges, including environmental degradation at the local, regional and global scale. Key
issues include climate change, loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services (provisioning,
regulating, cultural and supporting), local and regional air pollution, and land and water
degradation.
There is no doubt that the Earth's environment is changing on all scales from local to
global, in large measure due to human activities,. The stratospheric ozone layer has been
depleted, the climate is warming at a rate faster than at any time during the last 10,000 years,
biodiversity is being lost at an unprecedented rate, fisheries are in decline in most of theworld’s oceans, air pollution is an increasing problem in and around many of the major cities
in the world, large numbers of people live in water stressed or water scarce areas, and large
areas of land are being degraded. Much of this environmental degradation is due to theunsustainable production and use of energy, water, food and other biological resources and isalready undermining efforts to alleviate poverty and stimulate sustainable development, andworse, the future projected changes in the environment are likely to have even more severe
consequences.
Understanding the interconnections among these environmental issues is essential inorder to develop and implement informed cost-effective and socially acceptable policies,
practices and technologies at the local, regional and global scale. Given these environmental
issues are closely inter-linked we must ensure that policies and technologies to address one
environmental issue, positively, and not negatively, impact on other aspects of the environmentor human well-being, i.e., it is important to identify climate change response measures that arealso beneficial to biodiversity and do not adversely affect biodiversity. Cost-effective andequitable approaches to address these issues exist or can be developed, but will require political
will and moral leadership. While the substantial measures needed to prevent environmental
degradation from undermining growth and poverty alleviation are not yet in place, acombination of technological and behavioral changes, coupled with pricing and effective
policies (including regulatory policies), are needed to address these global challenges at all
spatial scales, and across all sectors.
The major indirect drivers of change are primarily demographic, economic, sociopolitical, technological, and cultural and religious. These drivers are clearly changing: theworld’s population and the global economy are growing, the world is becoming more255

interdependent, and there are major changes in information technology and biotechnology.
The world’s population will likely increase from about 6.5 billion people today to 9 to10
billion people by 2050. This increase in population will be accompanied by an increase in
GDP globally of a factor of 3-4, with developing countries increasingly driving global
economic growth. By 2030, about half or more of the purchasing power of the global economy
will stem from developing countries. Broad-based growth in developing countries sustained
over the next 25 years could significantly reduce global poverty. At the same time, it must berecognized that the benefits from growth and globalization could be undermined by a failure
to properly manage global environmental issues, especially mitigating and adapting to climatechange, and reducing the loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystem services.
Climate Change
There is no doubt that the composition of the atmosphere and the Earth’s climate have changed
since the industrial revolution predominantly due to human activities, and it is inevitable thatthese changes will continue regionally and globally. The atmospheric concentration of carbon
dioxide has increased by over 30% since the pre-industrial era primarily due to the combustionof fossil fuels and deforestation. Global mean surface temperatures have already increased byabout 0.75°C, an additional 0.5°C to 1.0°C is inevitable due to past emissions, and are projected
to increase by an additional 1.2-6.4°C between 2000 and 2100, with land areas warming morethan the oceans and high latitudes warming more than the tropics. Precipitation is moredifficult to predict, but is likely to increase at high latitudes and in the tropics, and decreasesignificantly in the sub-tropics, with an increase in heavy precipitation events and a decreasein light precipitation events, leading to more floods and droughts.
Changes in temperature and precipitation are causing, and will continue to cause, otherenvironmental changes, including, rising sea levels, retreating mountain glaciers, melting of
the Greenland ice cap, shrinking Arctic Sea ice, especially in summer, increasing frequency of
extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, and intensification of
cyclonic events, such as hurricanes in the Atlantic.
The Earth’s climate, which is projected to change at a faster rate than during the lastcentury, is projected to adversely affect freshwater, food and fiber, natural ecosystems, coastal
systems and low-lying areas, human health and social systems. The impacts of climate change
are likely to be extensive, primarily negative, and cut across many sectors. Temperature
increases, which will increase the thermal growing season at temperate latitudes, including in
the US and Europe, are likely lead to increased agricultural productivity for temperaturechanges below 2-3°C, but decrease with larger changes. However, agricultural productivity
will likely be negatively impacted for almost any changes in climate throughout the tropics
and sub-tropics, areas with high levels of hunger and malnutrition. Water quality andavailability in many arid- and semi-arid regions will likely decrease, while the risk of floods
and droughts in many regions of the world will increase. Vector- and water-borne diseases,
heat stress mortality and extreme weather-event deaths, and threats to nutrition in developing
countries, will likely increase. Millions of people could be trapped in areas of abject poverty
or displaced due to sea-level rise and flooding. These climate change impacts are most likely

256to adversely affect populations in developing countries. Climate change, coupled with otherstresses, can lead to local and regional conflict and migration depending on the social,economic, and political circumstances.
The goal, agreed at the Ministerial session of the UNFCCC in Copenhagen in 2009,and endorsed in Cancun and Durban, to limit global temperature changes to 2°C above preindustrial levels is appropriate if the most severe consequences of human-induced climatechange are to be avoided, but it must be recognized to be a stretch target and, unless political
will changes drastically in the near future, it will not be met. Therefore, we should be preparedto adapt to global temperature changes of 4-5°C. In addition, we must recognize that wecannot address mitigation and adaptation separately.
Mitigating climate change will require getting the price right, an evolution of lowcarbon technologies (production and use of energy), and behavior change by individuals,
communities, private sector and the public sectors (see paper by Goldemberg and Lovins). In
addition to transitioning to a low carbon energy system, it is critical to reduce emissions fromforests by reducing forest degradation and deforestation; and sequestering carbon throughreforestation; afforestation; and agroforestry, and from agricultural systems through conservation tillage, reducing emissions from the use of fertilizers, and from livestock and riceproduction.
In addition, to mitigating the emissions of greenhouse gases, it will be essential to adapt
to climate change. However, mitigation is essential because there are physical, technological,
behavioural and financial limits to the amount of adaptation that we can achieve: there arephysical limits to adaptation on small, low-lying islands, technological limits to flood defences,behavioural limits to where people live and why, and financial limits for adaptation activities.
The more we mitigate, the less we will have to adapt. Nevertheless, we know that adaptation isessential and must be mainstreamed, particularly into sectoral and national economic planningin developing countries due to their heightened vulnerability to climate change impacts.
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services
Throughout the world, biodiversity at the genetic, species and landscape level is being lost,and ecosystems and their services are being degraded, because of conversion of natural
habitats, over-exploitation, pollution, introduction of exotic species and climate change, which
are in many instances causing tremendous harm to both people and the environment. In
particular, the emphasis placed on provisioning services to meet the increased need for food(crops and livestock), and to a lesser extent fibre, water and energy, for an increasing population
has resulted in a decline in biodiversity and degradation of many ecosystems. The Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment reported that 15 of the 24 services evaluated were in decline, 4 were
improving and 5 were improving in some regions of the world and declining in other regions.
The UK National Ecosystem Assessment reported that between 30-35% of the ecosystemservices evaluated were in decline, 20% were improving and 45-50% were relatively stable.
While climate change has not been a major cause of biodiversity loss over the last 100 years it
is likely to be a major threat in all biomes during the next 100 years. Climate change will
likely exacerbate biodiversity loss and adversely affect most ecological systems, especially257

coral reefs, mountainous and polar ecosystems, potentially resulting in significant adversechanges in ecosystem goods and services. A recent assessment estimated that every 1°C
increase in global mean surface temperature up to 5°C would eventually result in a 10% lossof species.
Biodiversity is central to human well-being, providing a variety of ecosystem services
that humankind relies on, including: provisioning (e.g. food, freshwater, wood and fiber, andfuel); regulating (e.g. of climate, flood, diseases); culture (e.g. aesthetic, spiritual, educational,
and recreational), and supporting (e.g. nutrient cycling, soil formation, and primary
production). These ecosystem services, which contribute to human well-being, including our
security, health, social relations, and freedom of choice and action, are being diminished.
The benefits that we derive from the natural world and its constituent ecosystems are
critically important to human well-being and economic prosperity, but are consistently
undervalued in economic analysis and decision-making. Effective conservation and sustainable use of ecosystems are critical for human well-being and a future thriving and sustainablegreen economy. Failure to include the valuation of non-market values in decision-making
results in a less efficient resource allocation; however, a major challenge is to develop systems
to appropriate the values of non-market ecosystem services to land managers.
Therefore, addressing the issue of biodiversity and ecosystem services requires
changing the economic background to decision-making. There is a need to: (i) make sure thatthe value of all ecosystem services, not just those bought and sold in the market, are taken into
account when making decisions; (ii) remove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries, and energy thatcause harm to people and the environment; (iii) introduce payments to landowners in returnfor managing their lands in ways that protect ecosystem services, such as water quality andcarbon storage, that are of value to society; and (iv) establish market mechanisms to reduce
nutrient releases and carbon emissions in the most cost-effective way.
There is also a need to improve policy, planning, and management by integrating
decision-making between different departments and sectors, as well as international institutions, to ensure that policies are focused on protection and sustainable use of ecosystems.
It will require: (i) empowering marginalized groups to influence decisions affecting
ecosystem services, and recognize in law local communities’ ownership of natural resources;(ii) restoring degraded ecosystems and establishing additional protected areas, particularly
in marine systems and providing greater financial and management support to those that
already exist; and (iii) using all relevant forms of knowledge and information about
ecosystems in decision-making, including the knowledge of local and indigenous groups.
Success will also require influencing individual and community behavior. Thus it willbe critical to provide access to information about ecosystems and decisions affecting theirservices, provide public education on why and how to reduce consumption of threatened
ecosystem services, and by establishing reliable certification systems to give people the choice
to buy sustainably harvested products. It will also be important to develop and use environmentfriendly technologies, thus requiring investments in agricultural science and technology aimed
at increasing food production with minimal harmful trade-offs.

258

Lecture

Ozone Depletion, Climate Change and Loss of Biodiversity:
Implications for Food, Water and Human Security
Sir Bob Watson
Slide 1* - There is no doubt that the Earth’s environment is changing on all scales from local
to global, in large measure due to human activities. The stratospheric ozone layer has been
depleted, the climate is warming at a rate faster than at any time during the last 10,000 years,
biodiversity is being lost at an unprecedented rate, fisheries are in decline in most of theworld’s oceans, air pollution is an increasing problem in and around many of the major cities
in the world, large numbers of people live in water stressed or water scarce areas, and large
areas of land are being degraded. Much of this environmental degradation is due to theunsustainable production and use of energy, water, food and other biological resources and isalready undermining efforts to alleviate poverty and stimulate sustainable development, andworse, the future projected changes in the environment are likely to have even more severe
consequences.
The issues of stratospheric ozone depletion, climate change, loss of biodiversity anddegradation of ecosystem services, local and regional air pollution, and land and water
degradation are inter-connected and are undermining:• Economic growth, poverty alleviation, and the livelihoods of the poor;• Human health; and• Personal, national, and regional security.
Understanding the interconnections among these environmental issues is essential inorder to develop and implement informed cost-effective and socially acceptable policies,
practices and technologies at the local, regional and global scale. Given these environmental
issues are closely inter-linked we must ensure that policies and technologies to address one
environmental issue, positively, and not negatively, impact on other aspects of the environmentor human well-being, i.e., it is important to identify climate change response measures that arealso beneficial to biodiversity and do not adversely affect biodiversity. Cost-effective andequitable approaches to address these issues exist or can be developed, but will require political
will and moral leadership. While the substantial measures needed to prevent environmental
degradation from undermining growth and poverty alleviation are not yet in place, a combination of technological and behavioral changes, coupled with pricing and effective policies(including regulatory policies), are needed to address these global challenges at all spatial
scales, and across all sectors.
The major indirect drivers of change are primarily demographic, economic, socio-

259* There are supplement slides at the back of the section.

political, technological, and cultural and religious. These drivers are clearly changing: theworld’s population and the global economy are growing, the world is becoming moreinterdependent, and there are major changes in information technology and biotechnology.
The world’s population will likely increase from about 6.5 billion people today to 9-10 billion
people by 2050. This increase in population will be accompanied by an increase in GDP
globally of a factor of 3-4, with developing countries increasingly driving global economic
growth. By 2030, about half or more of the purchasing power of the global economy will stemfrom developing countries. Broad-based growth in developing countries sustained over the
next 25 years could significantly reduce global poverty. At the same time, it must be recognizedthat the benefits from growth and globalization could be undermined by a failure to properly
manage global environmental issues, especially mitigating and adapting to climate change,
and reducing the loss of biodiversity and degradation of ecosystem services.
Slide 2 - Stratospheric Ozone Depletion
The layer of ozone in the stratosphere protects the Earth from damaging ultraviolet radiation,
which can cause melanoma and non melanoma skin cancer in humans and adversely affectecological systems. Scientific research in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s demonstrated thatanthropogenic emissions of chlorine, e.g., chlorofluorocarbons, and bromine containing
chemicals that reached the stratosphere are photo-dissociated. The resulting halogen atoms
and halogen free radicals catalytically destroy ozone at all latitudes, except the tropics, withthe greatest depletions being at high latitudes in winter. Of particular importance was thediscovery of the spring-time Antarctic ozone hole and the subsequent ground, balloon andaircraft campaigns that showed that human activities were responsible and not natural
phenomena. A series of international ozone assessments provided the scientific, technical andeconomic information needed to inform national and international policy formulation. In
1985 an International Convention to protect the ozone layer was successfully negotiated,followed by the historic Montreal Protocol in 1987, which mandated emission reductions inozone-depleting chemicals from industrialized countries. The Montreal Protocol was quickly
followed by a series of adjustments and amendments, which resulted in the elimination ofemissions of nearly all short- and long-lived halogenated chemicals from both developed anddeveloping countries, thus protecting the ozone layer from significant loss. Observational
evidence shows that the Montreal Protocol is working with the atmospheric concentrations of
the ozone-depleting chemicals peaking and now decreasing. The Montreal Protocol should
result in the ozone layer recovering by the middle of the century.
This is clearly a success story, where national and internationally coordinated research
led to an understanding of the processes controlling the abundance of stratospheric ozone.
The international assessments provided decision-makers in government with a single sourceof information upon which to base national and international policies and the private sector
information upon which to develop environmentally-friendly alternatives.
Slide 3 - Climate Change
There is no doubt that the composition of the atmosphere and the Earth’s climate have changed260since the industrial revolution predominantly due to human activities, and it is inevitable thatthese changes will continue regionally and globally. Global mean surface temperatures havealready increased by about 0.75°C, and are projected to increase by an additional 1.2-6.4°C
between 2000 and 2100, with land areas in the high northern latitudes increasing by 4-5°C by
2090 even under low greenhouse gas emission scenarios, and by 10°C on average under highgreenhouse gas emission scenarios. Precipitation is more difficult to predict, however is likely
to increase at high latitudes and in the tropics, and decrease significantly in the sub-tropics.
Changes in temperature and precipitation are causing, and will continue to cause, otherenvironmental changes, including, rising sea levels, retreating mountain glaciers, melting of
the Greenland ice cap, shrinking Arctic Sea ice, especially in summer, increasing frequency of
extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, and intensification of
cyclonic events, such as hurricanes in the Atlantic.
The Earth’s climate, which is projected to change at a faster rate than during the lastcentury, is projected to adversely affect freshwater, food and fiber, natural ecosystems, coastal
systems and low-lying areas, human health and social systems. The impacts of climate change
are likely to be extensive, primarily negative, and cut across many sectors. Temperature
increases, which will increase the thermal growing season at temperate latitudes, including in
the US and Europe, are likely lead to increased agricultural productivity for temperaturechanges below 2-3°C, but decrease with larger changes. However, agricultural productivity
will likely be negatively impacted for almost any changes in climate throughout the tropics
and sub-tropics, areas with high levels of hunger and malnutrition. Climate change will likely
exacerbate biodiversity loss and adversely affect most ecological systems, especially coral
reefs, potentially resulting in significant adverse changes in ecosystem goods and services. A
recent assessment estimated that every 1°C increase in global mean surface temperature up to
5°C would eventually result in a 10% loss of species. Water availability and quality in many
arid and semi-arid regions will likely decrease, while the risk of floods and droughts in many
regions will increase. Vector- and water-borne diseases, heat stress mortality and extreme
weather-event deaths, and threats to nutrition in developing countries, will likely increase.
Tens of millions of people could be displaced due to sea-level rise. These climate change
impacts are most likely to adversely affect populations in developing countries. Climatechange, coupled with other stresses, can lead to local and regional conflict and migration
depending on the social, economic, and political circumstances.
Poverty alleviation requires climate change-resilient development, which must consistof strategies to cost-effectively mitigate human-induced climate change and adapt to theprojected impacts. While developed countries remain the largest per-capita emitters ofgreenhouse gases today, the growth of carbon emissions in the next decades will comeprimarily from developing countries, especially China and India, which are following thesame energy and carbon intensive development path as did their rich counterparts.
Consequently, to mitigate climate change we must minimize the emissions of greenhousegases and transition to a low-carbon economy while recognizing that access to affordable
energy in developing countries is a pre-requisite for poverty alleviation and economic growth.
To adapt, we must integrate current climate variability and projected climatic changes into261

sector and national economic planning while taking into consideration the aspirations of local
communities.
Climate change-resilient development must be equitable. Climate change, likebiodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, is an inter- and intra-generational equity issue.
Whereas the historical greenhouse gas emissions have come from developed countries,
developing countries and poor people in developing countries are most vulnerable to theimpacts of climate change. Furthermore, the actions of today will affect future generations.
Mitigation and adaptation strategies must take these equity issues into account.
Slide 4 - Mitigating Climate Change
The goal, agreed at the Ministerial session of the UNFCCC in Copenhagen in 2009, to limit
global temperature changes to 2°C above pre-industrial levels is appropriate if the most severe
consequences of human-induced climate change are to be avoided, but it must be recognized
to be a stretch target and, unless political will changes drastically in the near future, it will not
be met. Therefore, we should be prepared to adapt to global temperature changes of 4-5°C. In
addition, we must recognize that we cannot address mitigation and adaptation separately.
The current level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, accounting for the offsetting
effect of aerosols, is approximately 385ppm CO2eq*. If we succeed at stabilizing between 400
and 450ppm CO2eq, there is a 50% chance that global temperature changes will be limited to
2°C above pre-industrial levels, with a 5% probability of 2.8°C. However, the likelihood ofstabilizing at this level is low. If we stabilize at 550ppm CO2eq, there is a 50% chance that
global temperature changes will be limited to 3°C above pre-industrial levels, with a 5%chance of a 4.8°C, and if we allow the atmosphere to reach 650ppm CO2eq then there is a 50%
chance that global temperature changes will be limited to 4°C above pre-industrial levels, with
a 5% chance of a 6.0°C.
To stabilize at 500ppm CO2eq or lower, OECD countries would need to reduce theircarbon emissions by at least 80% by 2050. Developing countries would also need to decrease
their projected carbon emissions significantly over the same time period. Clearly a range oftools (policies, technologies and practices) are needed to stabilize greenhouse gases in theatmosphere at 500ppm CO2eq or less.
It is often assumed that an appropriate combination of technology and policy options
could provide the basis to meet our stabilization goals and mitigate climate change. However,mitigation will require a combination of pricing and technological mechanisms, as well as
good policies and behavioural change, i.e., pricing carbon emissions and understanding
behavioural changes is critical.
The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report shows that putting a price on carbon can lead tosignificant emission reductions. Pricing mechanisms include emissions trading, taxation, andregulations across national, regional, and global scales and across all sectors.

Note * ppm CO2eq: parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent262

Technology use and transformation is needed to reduce emissions. Better use ofavailable low-carbon technologies coupled with improved development, commercialization and market penetration of emerging technologies is required. Examples include:• Efficient production and use of energy: power generation (e.g. re-powering inefficient
coal plants and developing integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)); efficienttransport (e.g., developing electric and fuel cell cars; developing mass transit; andimproving urban planning), buildings, and industries;• Fuel shift: coal to gas;
• Renewable energy and fuels: wind, wave and tidal power; solar PV and solar thermal;
small- and large-scale hydropower; and bio-energy;• Carbon capture and storage (CCS): capture and geological storage of CO2 produced
during electricity generation (e.g., IGCC – CCS); and• Nuclear fission: nuclear power
In addition to transitioning to a low carbon energy system, it is critical to reduce
emissions from forests by reducing forest degradation and deforestation; and sequestering
carbon through reforestation; afforestation; and agroforestry, and from agricultural systems
through conservation tillage, reducing emissions from the use of fertilizers, and from livestockand rice production.
Key mitigation technologies projected to be commercialized before 2030 include,
carbon capture and storage, advanced nuclear power, and renewable energy (e.g., tidal andwave energy), second generation biofuels, advanced electric and hybrid vehicles, and integrated
design of commercial buildings. However, governments and the private sector must invest
more in energy RD&D to deliver these low greenhouse gas technologies. At least US$20
trillion is required globally for energy infrastructure investments between now and 2030.
Investment decisions will determine emissions from the energy sector. Returning global
energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 would require a major shift in investment
patterns, but initial estimates suggest that the net additional investments range from negligible
to 5-10%
A suitable policy framework is needed to facilitate the emergence of appropriate pricing
and technological mechanisms, as voluntary agreements alone will not work. Policies thatprovide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers
to significantly invest in low-greenhouse gas products, technologies and processes, including
economic instruments, regulations (e.g., standards) and government funding and tax credits.
The costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions are reduced through international trading andadopting a multi gas / multi sector strategy, hence reducing the financing needed to transition
to a low-carbon economy.
A long-term (e.g. 2030–2050), legally binding global regulatory framework is neededthat involves all major emitters, including the US, EU, Russia, China, Brazil, and India. The
agreement should allocate responsibilities in an equitable manner and should include
immediate and intermediate targets. This would stimulate a viable carbon market with a flow263

of funds to developing countries of tens of billions of dollars per year. The framework should
expand the range of eligible Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) activities to include
reduced deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), green investment schemes, and energy
efficiency standards. Sectoral and programmatic approaches should be considered.
In order to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, emissions
would have to peak and decline thereafter – the lower the stabilization level the more quickly
this peak and decline would need to occur. Delaying action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
will be costly by locking in high carbon pathways, thus making it more difficult and expensive
to reduce emissions in the future, as well as creating higher risks of severe climate change
impacts.
Adaptation
In addition, to mitigating the emissions of greenhouse gases, it will be essential to adapt toclimate change. However, mitigation is essential because there are physical, technological,
behavioural and financial limits to the amount of adaptation that we can achieve: there arephysical limits to adaptation on small, low-lying islands, technological limits to flood defences,behavioural limits to where people live and why, and financial limits to integrate adaptation toclimate change. The more we mitigate, the less we will have to adapt. Nevertheless, we knowthat adaptation is essential and must be mainstreamed, particularly into sectoral and national
economic planning in developing countries due to their heightened vulnerability to climatechange impacts.
The estimated annual costs of inaction related to climate change cover a huge range, but
are expected to fall between tens and hundreds of billions of dollars in developing countries
by 2050. Furthermore, a preliminary assessment shows that tens of billions of dollars per yearof Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) and concessional finance investments are
exposed to climate risks. Comprehensive project planning and additional investments toclimate-proof development projects will require additional funding.
While current financial instruments are technically adequate to respond to the challengeof achieving climate resilient development, the amounts of money flowing through these
instruments need to be substantially increased. Issues requiring immediate work include ananalysis of institutional barriers to mainstreaming adaptation into development planning andthe need for new standards for infrastructure and procedures for planning. New insurance
related instruments are likely to play a major role in this, including weather index insurance
for activities by farmers, and risk pooling arrangements such as the Global Index Insurance
Facility.
Failure to adapt adequately to current climate variability is already a major impediment
to poverty reduction. Most sectors are maladapted to current climate variability. Failure toeffectively mainstream adaptation to increasingly severe weather patterns and climate
variability into development activities is a major threat to poverty alleviation. This requires a
climate risk management approach that takes account of the threats and opportunities arisingfrom both current and future climate variability in project design. This process must be
country-driven and focus on national needs and local priorities. Delivery of adaptive responses

264depends on effective governance mechanisms.
Slide 5 - Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services
Biodiversity is central to human wellbeing, providing a variety of ecosystem services thathumankind relies on, including: provisioning (e.g. food, freshwater, wood and fiber, and fuel);
regulating (e.g. of climate, flood, diseases); culture (e.g. aesthetic, spiritual, educational, andrecreational), and supporting (e.g. nutrient cycling, soil formation, and primary produ-ction).
These ecosystem services contribute to human wellbeing, including our security, health, social
relations, and freedom of choice and action.
Enhancement of the goods and services provided by ecosystems tend to have multiple
and synergistic benefits, but little of this potential is being used today. Indeed, throughout theworld, the capability of many ecosystems to provide a range of services is being diminished,because of conversion of natural habitats, over-exploitation, pollution, introduction of exotic
species and climate change, which are in some instances causing tremendous harm to bothpeople and the environment. While climate change has not been a major cause of biodiversity
loss over the last 100 years it is likely to be a major threat in all biomes in the next 100 years.
Addressing the issue of biodiversity and ecosystem services requires changing the
economic background to decision-making. There is a need to: (i) make sure that the value ofall ecosystem services, not just those bought and sold in the market, are taken into accountwhen making decisions; (ii) remove subsidies to agriculture, fisheries, and energy that cause
harm to people and the environment; (iii) introduce payments to landowners in return for
managing their lands in ways that protect ecosystem services, such as water quality and carbon
storage, that are of value to society; and (iv) establish market mechanisms to reduce nutrient
releases and carbon emissions in the most cost-effective way.
There is also a need to improve policy, planning, and management by integrating
decision-making between different departments and sectors, as well as international institutions, to ensure that policies are focused on protection and sustainable use of ecosystems. It
will require: (i) empowering marginalized groups to influence decisions affecting ecosystemservices, and recognize in law local communities’ ownership of natural resources; (ii) restoring
degraded ecosystems and establishing additional protected areas, particularly in marine
systems and providing greater financial and management support to those that already exist;
and (iii) using all relevant forms of knowledge and information about ecosystems in decisionmaking, including the knowledge of local and indigenous groups.
Success will depend on influencing individual behavior, thus it will be critical to provide
access to information about ecosystems and decisions affecting their services, provide public
education on why and how to reduce consumption of threatened ecosystem services, and by
establishing reliable certification systems to give people the choice to buy sustainably harvested
products. It will also be important to develop and use environment-friendly technologies, thus
requiring investments in agricultural science and technology aimed at increasing foodproduction with minimal harmful trade-offs.

265

Slide 6 - Food Security and Agricultural Production
Total food production has nearly trebled since 1960, per capita production has increased by
30%, and food prices and the percent of undernourished people have fallen, but the benefits
have been uneven and more than one billion people still go to bed hungry each night. Furthermore, intensive and extensive food production has caused environmental degradation.
Food prices increased during the last two-three years for a variety of reasons that are
unlikely to disappear in the coming decades, including:• Poor harvests due to variable weather – possibly related to human-induced climatechange;• Increased biofuels use, e.g., maize in the USA;
• Increased demand, in rapidly growing economies;• High energy prices, increasing the cost of mechanization and fertilizers;• Speculation on the commodity markets at a time of low stocks; and• Export bans from some large exporting countries to protect domestic supplies.
The demand for food will likely double in the next 25-50 years, primarily in developing
countries. Furthermore, the type and nutritional quality of food demanded will change, e.g.,increased demand for meat. We need sustained growth in the agricultural sector to feed theworld, enhance rural livelihoods, and stimulate economic growth. Yet these new demands are
arising at a time when – in addition to the challenges highlighted above – the world has lesslabour due to disease and rural-urban migration, less water due to competition from othersectors, distorted trade policies due to OECD subsidies, land policy conflicts, loss of genetic,
species, and ecosystem biodiversity, and increasing levels of air and water pollution.
Agriculture affects the environment; for example, tillage and irrigation methods canlead to salinisation and soil erosion, and fertilisers and other forms of agricultural production(e.g. rice production and livestock) contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, and extensification
into grasslands and forests leads to loss of biodiversity at the genetic, species and landscapelevel. Environmental degradation in turns reduces agricultural productivity.
We can no longer think of agriculture in terms of production alone. We must acknowledge the multi-functionality of agriculture, and place agriculture within a broad economic,
social, and environmental framework.
We can feed the world with affordable food while providing a viable income for the
farmer, but business-as-usual will not work. Most of today’s hunger problems can be addressed with the appropriate use of current technologies, particularly appropriate agro-ecologicalpractices (e.g. no/low till, integrated pest management, and integrated natural resource
management). These must be coupled with decreased post-harvest losses.
Emerging issues such as climate change and new plant and animal pests may increase
our future need for higher productivity and may require advanced biotechnologies, including
genetic modification, to address future food demands. However, the risks and benefits of thesetools must be fully understood on a case-by-case basis. The public and private sectors should
increase their investments in research and development, extension services, and weather and266

market information.
Farmers must be central to all initiatives taken; local and traditional knowledge must be
integrated with agricultural knowledge, science, and technology developed in universities andgovernment laboratories. Innovation that involves all relevant stakeholders along the complete
food chain is essential. As such, we must recognize the critical role of women and empower
them (e.g. through education, property rights, and access to financing).
We will also need to employ global-scale policy reforms. This will include eliminating
both OECD production subsidies and tariff escalation on processed products, and recognizing
the special needs of the least developed countries through non-reciprocal market access.
Governments should pay farmers to maintain and enhance ecosystem services.
Slide 7 - Water Security
Projections show that by 2025 over half of the world’s population will live in places that are
subject to severe water stress. This is irrespective of climate change, which will exacerbate thesituation. Water quality is declining in many parts of the world, and 50-60% of wetlands havebeen lost. Human-induced climate change is projected to decrease water quality and availability
in many arid and semi-arid regions and increase the threats posed by floods and droughts inmost parts of the world. This will have far-reaching implications, including for agriculture:
70% of all freshwater is currently used for irrigation. 15-35% of irrigation water use alreadyexceeds supply and is thus unsustainable.
Freshwater availability is spatially variable and scarce, particularly in many regions ofAfrica and Asia. Numerous dry regions, including many of the world’s major “food bowls,”
will likely become much drier even under medium levels of climate change. Glacier melt,
which provides water for many developing countries, will likely exacerbate this problem overthe long term. Runoff will decrease in many places due to increased evapotranspiration. In
contrast, more precipitation is likely to fall in many of the world’s wetter regions. Developed
regions and countries will also be affected. For example, winters will likely become hotter andwetter in the UK, and summers hotter and drier; southeast England may receive 50% lessrainfall during the summer by the 2080s.
Cost recovery for water – at only 20% – poses a major problem for water management.
Crucially, and controversially, we must get water pricing right. The Dublin Principles shouldbe implemented to help address the challenges associated with water scarcity. These include
the:• Ecological Principle: river basin management (often transnational); multi-sectoral
management (e.g. agriculture, industry, and households); and coupled land-and-water
management• Institutional Principle: Comprehensive stakeholder involvement (e.g. state, private
sector, and civil society – especially women) in management action at the lowest level• Instrument Principle: Improved allocation and quality enhancement via incentives
and economic principles

267

Science-policy Interface
Strengthening the science-policy interface for many environmental issues is also critical.
National and international, coordinated, and interdisciplinary research is the critical underpinningof informed policy formulation and implementation. There is an urgent need for strengthening
the scientific and technological infrastructure in most developing countries. Independent, global
expert assessments that encompass risk assessment and risk management have proven to be a
critical component of the science-policy interface. These include the International Stratospheric
Ozone Assessments, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Millennium
Ecosystem Assessment, and the International Agricultural Assessment of Science andTechnology for Development. Such assessments must be policy-relevant rather than policyprescriptive. Furthermore, we need a more integrated assessment process that encompasses allenvironmental issues within the construct of economic growth and poverty alleviation.
Slide 8 - Conclusion
In summary, we are changing the Earth’s climate, losing biodiversity and spending Earth’s
natural capital, putting such strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of theplanet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted. However,the future is not pre-ordained. Business as usual will lead to an unsustainable world withsignificant changes in the Earth’s climate and a loss of critical ecosystem services. Costeffective technologies, supported by an appropriate policy framework, can lead to moresustainable practices. Effective action needs stable and credible environmental policies that
support the long-term shift to a low-carbon economy and the sustainable use of natural
resources. We need not just a small improvement in resource efficiency, but a radical shift.
Public and private sector decision-makers need to take a longer-term perspective. We must
make advances in science and technology, with the emphasis on interdisciplinary research. We
must get the economics right; this includes eliminating perverse subsidies by valuing ecosystemservices and internalizing externalities.
Progress requires political will and moral leadership in the public and private sectors.
The actions of today’s generation will profoundly affect the Earth inherited by our children
and future generations. Policymakers should recognize that there is no dichotomy between
economic growth and environmental protection, and that addressing issues such as climatechange provides economic opportunities to restructure and make a more efficient energy
system, and can provide additional benefits such as reducing local and regional air pollution,with positive implications for human health. The benefits of limiting climate change andsustainably managing ecosystems far exceed the costs of inaction, and delaying action cansignificantly increase costs. Efficient resource use saves money for businesses and households,
and a green economy will be a source of future employment and innovation. Similarly theconservation and sustainable use of biodiversity can have significant economic and social
benefits.
Unless we act now to limit human-induced environmental degradation, history will
judge us as having been complacent in the face of compelling scientific evidence that humans
are changing the Earth’s environment with predominantly adverse effects on human health,268

ecological systems and socio-economic sectors. Do we really want our heritage to be that ofsacrificing the Earth’s biodiversity for cheap fossil fuel energy, ignoring the needs of future
generations, and failing to the meet the challenge of providing energy in an environmentallyand socially sustainable manner when so many choices were available? Leaders from government and industry must stand shoulder to shoulder to ensure that the future of the Earth is notneedlessly sacrificed.

269

Slide 1-1

Slide 1-2

Slide 2Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 1

270

Slide 2Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 2

Slide 2Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 3

Slide 2Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 4271

Slide 2Stratospheric Ozone Depletion 5

Slide 3
Climate Change 1

Slide 3
Climate Change 2272

Slide 3
Climate Change 3

Slide 3
Climate Change 4

Slide 3
Climate Change 5273

Slide 3
Climate Change 6

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 1

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 2274

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 3

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 4

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 5275

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 6

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 7

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 8276

Slide 4
Mitigating Climate Change 9

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 1

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 2277

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 3

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 4

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 5278

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 6

Slide 5
Loss of Biodiversity and Degradation of Ecosystem Services 7

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 1

279

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 2

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 3

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 4

280

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 5

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 6

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 7

281

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 8

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 9a

Slide 6
Food Security and Agricultural Production 9b

282

Slide 7
Water Security 1

Slide 7
Water Security 2

Slide 8Conclusion

283

Major Publications
Sir Bob Watson
Refereed Publications
Detection of the Ground State FO Radical in the Gas Phase, M. A. A. Clyne and R. T. Watson, Chem. Phys. Lett.,
12, 344, 1971.
Measurement of Ground State 2P3/2 Bromine and Chlorine Atom Concentrations in Discharge Flow Systems, M. A.
A. Clyne, H. W. Cruse, and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. 1, 68, 1972.
Reactions of Chlorine Oxide Radicals. Part 4 - Rate Constants for the Reactions Cl + OClO, H + OClO, NO +OClO and O + ClO, P. P. Bemand, M. A. A. Clyne, and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. 1, 69, 1356,
1973.
Atomic Resonance Fluorescence and Mass Spectrometry for Measurements of the Rate Constants for Elementary
Reactions: O(3P) + NO2 –> O2 + NO and NO + O3 –> NO2 + O2, P. P. Bemand, M .A. A. Clyne and R. T.
Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. II, 70, 564, 1974.
Kinetic Studies of Diatomic Free Radicals Using Mass Spectrometry, I. System Description and Application to F
Atoms and FO Radicals, M. A. A. Clyne and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. II, 70, 1109, 1974.
Kinetic Studies of Diatomic Free Radicals Using Mass Spectrometry, II. Rapid Bimolecular Reactions Involving
2
the ClO π Radical, M. A. A. Clyne and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. I, 70, 2250, 1974.
Kinetic Studies of Diatomic Free Radicals Using Mass Spectrometry, III. Elementary Reactions Involving BrO
X2π Radicals, M. A. A. Clyne and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. I, 70, 2250, 1974.
Reactions of Chlorine Oxide Radicals. Part V - The Reaction 2ClO (X2π) –> Products, M.A. A. Clyne, D. J.
McKenney, and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. I, 71, 322, 1975.
A Kinetic Study of the Reactions of OH Radicals with Two C2 Hydrocarbons: C2H4, D. D. Davis, S. Fischer, R.
Schiff, and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., 63, 1717, 1975.
A Kinetics Study of the Reactions of OH Radicals with a Series of Halogenated Alkanes, Part I. CH3Cl, CH2Cl2,
CHCl3, CH3Br, D. D. Davis, E. S. Machado, B. Conaway, Y. Oh, and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., 65, 1268,
1976.
A Temperature Dependent Kinetics Study of the Reactions of Cl(2P3/2) with O3, CH4 and H2O2, R. T. Watson, E. S.
Machado, S. Fischer, and D. D. Davis, J. Chem. Soc., 65, 2126, 1976.
Kinetics Studies of Diatomic Free Radicals Using Mass Spectrometry, IV. The Br + OClO and BrO + ClO
Reactions., M. A. A. Clyne and R. T. Watson, J. Chem. Soc., Faraday Trans. I, 73, 1169, 1977.
A Kinetics Study of the Reactions of OH Radicals with a Series of Halogenated Alkanes, Part II. CH2ClF, CHF2Cl,
CHFCl2, CH3CH2Cl, CH3CCl3, CFCl2CF2Cl, R. T. Watson, E. S. Machado, S. Wagner, and D. D. Davis, J.
Chem. Soc., 81, 236, 1977.
High Resolution Absorption Cross-Sections for the A2π-X2π System of ClO, P. H. Pine, A. R. Ravishankara, D. L.
Philen, D. D. Davis, and R. T. Watson, Chem. Phys. Lett., 50, 101, 1977.
A Quantum Yield Determination of O(1D) Production from Ozone Via Laser Flash Photolysis, D. L. Philen, R. T.
Watson, and D. D. Davis, J. Chem. Soc., 67, 3316, 1977.
A Temperature Dependent Kinetics Study of the Reactions of HCl with OH and O(3P), A. R. Ravishankara, G.
Smith, R. T. Watson, and D. D. Davis, J. Chem. Soc., 81, 2220, 1977.
A Kinetics Study of the Reactions of OH Radicals with a Series of Aromatics and Olefins, A. R. Ravishankara, S.
Wagner, S. Fischer, G. Smith, R. Schiff,R. T. Watson, G. Tesi, and D. D. Davis, Int. J. Chem. Kinetics, 10, 783,
1978.
A Kinetics Study of the Reactions of OH Radicals with a Series of Halogenated Alkanes, Part III. CF3CHCl2,
CHClFCF3, CH2ClCH2Cl, R. T. Watson, E. S. Machado, S. Wagner, A. R. Ravishankara, and D. D. Davis, Int.
J. Chem. Kinetics, 11, 187, 1979.
Pressure and Temperature Dependence Kinetics Study of the NO + BrO –> NO2 + Br Reaction. Implications for
Stratospheric Bromine Photochemistry, R. T. Watson, S. P. Sander, and Y. L. Yung, J. Phys. Chem.., 83, 2936,
1979.
Atmospheric Bromine and Ozone Perturbations in the Lower Stratosphere, Y. L. Yung, J. P. Pinto, R. T. Watson, andS. P. Sander, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 339, 1980.
Laser Flash Photolysis of Ozone: O(1D) Quantum Yields in the Fall-Off Region 297-325 nm, J. C. Brock and R. T.

284

Watson, Chem Phys., 46, 477, 1980.
Kinetics Studies of the Reactions of CH3O2 with NO, NO2, and CH3O2 at 298K, S. P. Sander, and R. T. Watson, J.
Phys. Chem., 84, 1664, 1980.
Kinetic Study of the Cl(2P) + Cl2O –>Cl2ClO Reaction at 298K, G. W. Ray, L. F. Keyser, and R. T. Watson, J. Phys.
Chem., 84, 1674, 1980.
Temperature Dependence of the Rates of Reaction of Cl(2P3/2) with Simple Alkanes, R. W. Lewis, S. J. Wagner, S.
Sander, and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem., 84, 2009, 1980.
Ozone Photolysis: Determination of the O(3P) Quantum Yield at 266 nm, J. C. Brock and R. T. Watson, Chem
Phys. Lett., 71, 371, 1980.
Temperature Dependence of the Reaction O(3P) + OH(2π)–>O2 + H, R. S. Lewis and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem.,
84, 3495, 1980.
Kinetics Study of the Pressure Dependence of the BrO + NO2 Reaction at 298K, S. P. Sander, G. W. Ray, and R. T.
Watson, J. Phys. Chem., 85, 199, 1981.
Rates and Mechanism of the Disproportionation of BrO Radicals, S. P. Sander and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem.,
85, 4000, 1981.
A Kinetic Study of the Reaction NO + XO –> NO2 + X at 298K,G. W. Ray and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem., 85,2955, 1981.
A Kinetics Study of the Reaction of SO2 with CH3O2, S. P. Sander and R. T. Watson, Chem. Phys. Lett., 77, 473,.
1981.
Temperature Dependence of the Self-Reaction of CH3O2 Radicals, S. P. Sander and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem.,
85, 2960, 1981.
Kinetics Studies of the HO2 + HO2 Reaction at 298K, S. P. Sander, M. Peterson, R. T. Watson, and R. Patrick, J.
Phys. Chem., 86, 1236, 1982.
A Kinetic Study of the NO + O3 Reaction, G. W. Ray, and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem., 85, 1673, 1981.
Stratospheric ozone depletion and future levels of atmospheric chlorine and bromine, M. J. Prather and R. T.
Watson, Nature, 344, 729, 1990.
Environmental threats and mitigation strategies in high-mountain areas, R.T. Watson and W. Haeberli, Ambio Spec.
Report 13, 2, 2004.
Mobilization, diffusion and use of scientific expertise, R.T. Watson and H. Gitay, IDDRI, 11, 2004.
Turning science into policy: challenges and experiences from the science-policy interface, R.T. Watson, Philos
Trans R Soc London B Bio Sci, 360, 1454, 2005.
Environmental Health Impacts of Global Climate Change, R.T. Watson, J. Patz, D.J. Gubler, E.A. Parson, and J.H.
Vincent, J. Environmental Monitoring, 7, 834, 2005.
Environment challenges and opportunities R.T. Watson, Editorial J. Environment Monitoring, 10, 288, 2008.
Biodiversity Conservation and the Millennium Development Goals, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Jonathan E. M. Baillie,
William J. Sutherland, Paul R. Armsworth, Neville Ash, John Beddington, Tim M. Blackburn, Ben Collen,
Barry Gardiner, Kevin J.Gaston, H. Charles J. Godfray, Rhys Green, Paul H. Harvey, Brett House,1 Sandra
Knapp, Noëlle F. Kümpel, David W. Macdonald, Georgina M. Mace, James Mallet, Adam Matthews, Robert
M. May, Owen Petchey, Andy Purvis, Dilys Roe, KamranSafi, Kerry Turner, Matt Walpole, Robert Watson andKate E. Jones, Science, September 2009.
Refereed National and International Scientific Assessments and Reviews
International Assessment by an Ad-hoc Group of Experts for the Convention on Biological Diversity on Climate
Change and Biodiversity 2009 (R.T. Watson, co-chair).
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development - Agriculture at a Crossroads
2008: Global Report (R.T. Watson, Director).
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development - Agriculture at a Crossroads
2008: Volumes I-V (Regional Reports for Central and West Asia and North Africa; East and South Asia andthe Pacific; Latin America and the Caribbean; North America and Europe; and Sub-Saharan Africa) - (R.T.
Watson, Co-editor and Director).
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development - Agriculture at a Crossroads
2008: Synthesis Report (R.T. Watson, Co-editor and Director).
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development - Agriculture at a Crossroads
2008: Global Summary for Decision Makers, and Summaries for Decision Makers for Central and West Asia

285

and North Africa; East and South Asia and the Pacific; Latin America and the Caribbean; North America andEurope; and Sub-Saharan Africa - Island Press (R.T. Watson, Director).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Living Beyond Our Means - Natural Assets and Human Well-Being:
Statement from the Board (R.T. Watson, co-author and Board co-chair).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Our Human Planet: Summary for
Decision Makers, Island Press ISBN 1-55963-387-5 (R.T. Watson, co-author and Board co-chair).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis Reports on: (i)Biodiversity - ISBN 1-56973-588-3; (ii) Desertification - ISBN 1-56973-590-5; (iii) Wetlands and Water ISBN1-56973-597-2; (iv) Marine and Coastal ecosystems - ISBN 92-807-2679-X; (v) Health; and (vi)Opportunities and Challenges for Business and Industry - ISBN 92-4-156309; (R.T. Watson, Board co-chair).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis, Island Press, ISBN
1-59726-040-1 (Board co-chair and contributing author).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Chapter 4; Drivers in Volume I Conditions and Trends, Island Press(R.T. Watson, lead author).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005: Chapter13; Climate in Volume III Responses, Island Press (R.T.
Watson, convening lead author).
United Nations Millennium Development Goal Task Force on Environmental Sustainability 2005: Environmentand Human Well-Being: a Practical strategy (R.T. Watson, task force member).
United Nations Millennium Development Goal Task Force on Environmental Sustainability 2005: Climate andEnergy paper (R.T. Watson, co-author).
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2003: Conceptual Framework, Island Press, ISBN 1-55963-403-0 (R.T.
Watson, author and Board co-chair).
Convention on Biological Diversity 2003: An Assessment of the Interlinkages between Biological Diversity andClimate Change - (R.T. Watson, co-chair and lead author of Chapter 5.).
IPCC Technical Paper #5 - Climate Change and Biodiversity: 2002 (R.T. Watson co-editor and convening leadauthor).
IPCC Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report: 2001: ISBN 0 521 80770 0 (01507 3) (R. T. Watson Editor andChair of the core writing team).
IPCC Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: 2001 ISBN 0521 80767 0 (01495 6) (R. T. Watson, co-author of
the Summary for Policymakers).
IPCC Emissions Scenarios: 2000 ISBN 0 521 80081 1 (80493 0) (R.T. Watson, contributing author).
IPCC Land Use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry: 2000 ISBN 0 521 80083 8 (80495 7) (R.T. Watson, Editor andChair of the writing team).
UNEP Synthesis of the Reports of the Scientific, Environmental Effects, and Technology and Economic Panels of
the Montreal Protocol: A Decade of Assessments for Decision Makers Regarding the Protection of the Ozone
Layer 1988-1999. ISBN: 92-807-1733-2 (R.T. Watson, member of the Editorial Team).
UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1998, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring
Project, Report No. 44, 1998 (R. T. Watson, co-Chair).
IPCC WG #2: The Regional Impacts of Climate Change: An Assessment of Vulnerability 1998, Cambridge
University Press, ISBN 0 521 632560 (634555) (R.T. Watson, co-chair).
IPCC WG #2: Technologies, Policies and Measures for Mitigating Climate Change: 1997 (R.T. Watson, co-chair).
IPCC WG #2: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change: 1995, Cambridge University Press, ISBN
0 521 56431 (56437) (R.T. Watson, co-chair).
Interagency Assessment of Potential Health Risks Associated with Oxygenated Gasoline National Science andTechnology Council (R. T. Watson, Chair).
UNEP Global Biodiversity Assessment: Cambridge University Press, ISBN 0 521 56403 (56481) 1995 (R. T.
Watson, Chair).
UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1994, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring
Project, Report No. 37, 1994 (R. T. Watson, Co-Chair).
Methyl Bromide: Its Atmospheric Science, Technology, and Economics: Montreal Protocol Assessment
Supplement, UNEP, 1992 (R. T. Watson, Co-Chair).
UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 1991, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring
Project, Report No. 25, 1992 (R. T. Watson, Co-Chair).
Greenhouse Gases, R.T. Watson, Coordinating Author, Section A, Sources and Sinks-A1, Radiative Forcing of286

Climate-A2, Emissions Scenarios for IPCC: An Update-A-3 in Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary
Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, U.K., 1992.
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere 1990: An Assessment Report, R. T. Watson, M. J. Kurylo,
M. J. Prather, and F. M. Ormond, Submitted to EPA and Congress, September 1990. NASA Reference
Publication 1242.
Greenhouse Gases and Other Forcing Agencies, R. T. Watson, H. Rodhe, and H. Oeschger (lead authors) in
Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, U.K., 1990.
UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Stratospheric Ozone: 1989, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring
Project, Report No. 20, 1990 (R. T. Watson, Co-Chairman).
Report of the International Ozone Trends Panel - 1988, WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project,
Report No. 18, 1990 (R. T. Watson, Chair).
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere 1988: An Assessment Report, R. T. Watson and Ozone
Trends Panel, M. J. Prather and Ad Hoc Theory Panel, and M. J. Kurylo and NASA Panel for Data Evaluation,
Submitted to EPA and the Congress, June 1988. NASA Reference Publication 1208, 1988.
Assessment of Ozone Depletion and its Impacts, UNEP Coordinating Committee of the Ozone Layer, Report of
the Eighth Session, 1986.
Atmospheric Ozone 1985: Assessment of Our Understanding of the Processes Controlling its Present Distribution
and Change, WMO Global Ozone and Monitoring Project, Report No. 16, 1986 (R. T. Watson - Chair).
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere: An Assessment Report. Processes That Control Ozone andOther Climatically Important Trace Gases, Submitted to EPA and the Congress, January 1986. R. T. Watson,
R. S. Stolarski, M. A. Geller, and R. F. Hampson, Jr., NASA Reference Publication 1162, 1986.
Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modelling, Evaluation #7, NASA Panel for
Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore, D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., C. J. Howard, M. J. Kurylo, J. J. Margitan,
M. J. Molina, A. R. Ravishankara, and R. T. Watson, JPL Publication 85-37. 1985.
Assessment of Ozone Depletion and its Impacts, UNEP Coordinating Committee of the Ozone Layer, Report of
the Seventh Session, 1984.
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere: An Assessment Report, R. T. Watson, R. S. Stolarski, and
M. A. Geller, Submitted to EPA and the Congress, January 1984.
Evaluated Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Atmospheric Chemistry: Supplement II CODATA Task Group on
Chemical Kinetics, D. L. Baulch, R. A. Cox, R. F. Hampson, Jr., J. A. Kerr, J. Troe, and R. T. Watson, J. Phys.
Chem. Ref. Data 13, 1259, 1984.
Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modelling, Evaluation #6, NASA Panel for
Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore, D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., C. J. Howard, M. J. Kurylo, M. J. Molina,
A. R. Ravishankara, and R. T. Watson, JPL Publication 83-62, 1983.
Present State of Knowledge of the Upper Atmosphere: An Assessment Report, R. T. Watson, R. S. Stolarski, and
M. A. Geller, Submitted to EPA and the Congress, January 1982.
The Stratosphere 1981: Theory and Measurements. WMO Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project,
Report #11, 1982. (R. T. Watson - Workshop Co-Chair).
Evaluated Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Atmospheric Chemistry; Supplement I CODATA Task Group on
Chemical Kinetics, D. L. Baulch, R. A. Cox, P. J. Crutzen, R. F. Hampson, Jr., J. A. Kerr, J. Troe, and R. T.
Watson, J. Phys. Chem. Ref. Data 11, 327, 1982.
Chemical Kinetics and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modelling, Evaluation #5, NASA Panel for
Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore, D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., C. J. Howard, M. J. Kurylo, M. J. Molina,
A. R. Ravishankara, and R. T. Watson, JPL Publication 82-57, 1982.
Chemical Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modelling, Evaluation #4, NASA Panel for
Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore, D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., M. J. Kurylo, J. J. Margitan, M. J. Molina,
L. J. Stief, and R. T. Watson, JPL Publication 81-3, 1981.
Evaluation of the Effects of Chlorofluorocarbons on Atmospheric Ozone: Present Status of Research, reportpublished by the Commission of the European Communities, 1981 (R.T. Watson, co-author).
Evaluated Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Atmospheric Chemistry, CODATA Task Group on Chemical
Kinetics, D. L. Baulch, R. A. Cox, R. F. Hampson, Jr., J. A. Kerr, J. Troe, and R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem. Ref.
Data 9, 295, 1980.
Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Modelling, Evaluation #3, NASA Panel for Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore,D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., M. J. Kurylo, J. J. Margitan, M. J. Molina, L. J. Stief, and R. T. Watson.

287

Chapter 1, The Stratosphere: Present and Future, NASA Reference Publication 1049, 1979.
Chemical Kinetic and Photochemical Data for Use in Stratospheric Modelling, Evaluation #2, NASA Panel for
Data Evaluation, W. B. DeMore, D. M. Golden, R. F. Hampson, Jr., F. Kaufman, M. J. Kurylo, J. J. Margitan,
M. J. Molina, L. J. Stief, and R. T. Watson, JPL Publication 79-27, 1979.
Laboratory Measurements of Rate Constants and Photochemical Cross-Sections and Quantum Yields, W. B.
DeMore, D. Garvin, R. F. Hampson, Jr., D. Golden, J. J. Margitan, M. J. Molina, L. J. Stief, and R. T. Watson.
Chlorofluoromethanes and the Stratosphere, Chapter I, NASA Reference Publication 1010, 1977.
Rate Constants of ClOx of Atmospheric Interest, R. T. Watson, J. Phys. Chem. Ref. Data, 6, 871, 1977.
Rate Constants of ClOx of Atmospheric Interest, R. T. Watson, Chemical Kinetics Data Survey VIII, National
Bureau of Standards Publication, NBSIR 74-516, 1974.
Key World Bank Publications
Strategic Approaches to Science and Technology in Development, Robert Watson, Michael Crawford and Sara
Farley World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3026, 2003.
Clean Energy and Development: Towards an Investment Framework, Watson et.al., April 2006.
Progress Report on the Investment Framework for Clean Energy and Development, Watson et.al; September 2006.
The Investment Framework for Clean Energy, Watson et.al., April 2007.
Book Chapters
I have contributed to about 10 book chapters but have never kept a record of them.

288