The Winnersof the Blue

1998

PlanetPrize

1998Blue

PlanetPrize

Professor(Russia)

Mikhail I. Budyko

Mr. David R. Brower(U.S.A.)

Head

Division

Chairmanof theResearch,

for Climate

State Hydrological

Changeof the Earth Island

Institute

Institute

At the 1998 Blue
PlanetPrizeAwards
Ceremony,
the opening
slide presentation
revealed the beauty and wonder of both waterand life. This presentation
seeks to remind us
that water sustains and links together all forms oflife on the earth.

61

Their Imperial Highnesses Prince andPrincess Akishino at the Congratulatory

His Imperial
Party.

gratulatory

Prof.
Jiro Furumoto, chairman of the Foundation,delivers the opening address.

Thomas S. Foley, Ambassador of the United States
to Japan (left), and Vassili Dobrovolski, MinisterCounsellor of the Russian Embassy in Tokyo(right), congratulate the laureates.

62

Highness

PrinceAkishinodeliveringa con-

speech.

Mikhailyears, Gennady
Commemorative

I. Budyko

and his research

Menzhulin,
Lectures.

in the Blue

partnerof 30

PlanetPrize

Mr. David R. Brower and his son, environmentaljournalist
Kenneth Brower, in the Blue Planet Prize Commemorative
Lectures.

Profile

Professor
Headof the Division

for Climate

MikhailChangeResearch,

I. Budyko
StateHydrological

Institute

Education and Academic and Professional Activities
1920
Born in January in the former Soviet Union (now Belarus).
1942
M.Sc., Physics, Leningrad Polytechnic Institute.
Researcher, Main Geophysical Observatory, Leningrad.
1951
D.Sc., Main Geophysical Observatory.
1951-1954 Deputy Director, Main Geophysical Observatory.
1954-1972 Director, Main Geophysical Observatory.
1958
Lenin National Prize.
1964
Corresponding Member, Academy of Sciences of the U.S.S.R.
1972
Prof. Lithke Gold Medal, Russian Geographical Society.
1972-1975 Head of Division, Physical Climatology, Main Geophysical Observatory.
1975-2001 Head of Division, Climate Change Research, State Hydrological Institute
St. Petersburg.
1987

Gold Medal,

1989

A. P. Vinogradov

1991

Diploma,1992

Academician,

1994

Prof.

R. Horton

1995

A. A. Grigoryev

Prize,

2001

Deceased,

World

MeteorologicalPrize,First Degree,

AcademyOrganization.
of Sciences.

RussianKnowledge

RussianAcademyof Sciences.

Medal,

AmericanGeographical

DecemberRussianAcademySociety.

Union.

of Sciences.

11.

In the 1950s,Prof. Budyko conducted quantitative studies of the global climate by calculating
the heat balance of the Earth's surface, which involved energy from the sun. He announced his
findings in 1956 with the publication of his book Heat Balance of the Earth's Su/face. Until
that time, climatologywas essentiallyjust a qualitativedisciplineused as part of the natural andgeographicalsciences. However,Prof. Budyko's book revolutionized climatology into a morequantitativediscipline, sending a shock through the world's weather- and climate-related academic circles. In addition, under the direction of Prof. Budyko, an atlas of all components of
the heat balance of the Earth was completed in 1963. The atlas has been important to efforts
to research and solve global environmental problems.
Prof. Budyko studied not only the abioticalprocesses that shape our climate, but also therole of biological organisms and human activities. His efforts to analyze the interrelationships
between climate and the Earth's inhabitants are a distinguishing feature of his work. In 1972,
many scientists were predicting that the global climate was entering a cool-down phase. In
contrast, Prof. Budyko issued a report warning that, based on his quantitativeanalysis, the con-63

sumption
pushingof fossil fuels was raising

up average temperatures.
Prof. Budyko
also postulated

amounts

of aerosol

threatenthe extinction

particles,

the concentrationthatthe resultingof humankind.

of carbon

if a nuclear

war

climatechangeHis warningsof suchdioxidewere

to occurwouldof the 1980s and are believed

to have helped

bringby the UnitedStatesUnion

mid-range

64

Sovietto reduceand release

be on sucha "nuclear

the beginningand the former

in the atmosphereabout

winter"a scalewere

the signing
nuclear

and

large
as to

made

in

of a treaty

missiles.

EssayGlobalBiosphere

Professor

Cataclysms

Mikhail

OctoberI. Budyko

2001

Abstract
Climate biosphere cataclysms, which occurred many times in the geological past, provoked
climate changes that led to the extinction of populations of many fauna and flora species. The
study of these cataclysms allows a conclusion that climate systems are very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (atmospheric transparency, large glaciations,
etcetera). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible
consequences of the presently occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase ingreenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.

Introduction
Climate catastrophes occur with large-scale environmental changes, which cause mass deathsof living organisms. In comparison with global climatic catastrophes, local ones induced byatmospheric factors occur much more frequently. These local catastrophes, because of theirlimited duration, are associated in many cases with weather changes and'not with climate variations. However,in the absence of a universally adopted time scale distinguishing the synoptic processes determining weather and the climate-forming processes, it is not always easy todiscriminate between weather and climate catastrophes. We will consider several examples offrequently occurring local ecological catastrophes caused by atmosphericfactors.
The best-known example of this kind is large-scale droughts covering areas of thousands of square kilometers.During such droughts, a considerable part of the natural vegetation
cover and crops perish. Most animals inhabiting the drought area also die, or if possible, moveto other regions, which also results in the death of a part of forced emigrants.
The largest droughts in developingcountries caused mass mortality in agriculturalpopulations. Often epidemics spread far beyond the boundaries of the drought regions. The catastrophic droughts in Ethiopia's Sahelian region and in other countries are widely known recent
examples.
Aftereffects of strong thermal variations disastrous for animate nature are also known
and are frequently distributed over far greater areas than those affected by drought. These
weather changes result less in mortality (although this always increases with excessive temperature variations), but inadvertently in mass deaths of animals and plants belonging to
species sensitive to the thermal conditions of the environment.
Such an event is often observed in the mid-latitudes over vast areas. Long-term, strong65

reductionsin temperaturecause

species—evenfull extinction.

frost-resistant

plants.

a considerable

Particularly

southward

developmentof many animal

the area occupied

frequent local climatic catastrophes

of atmosphericprocesses

along the western coast of South America—thethis case, the nutrient- and oxygen-richin the number

strong cooling reduces

One more example of comparatively
with the anomalous

decreaseis associatedwhen warm tropical waters moveso-called El Nino phenomenon.

cold waters of the Peruvian current are overlapped

long distances by warm waters, which destroys the nutrient links supporting
large fish populations.

by less

The disappearance

In
over

the existenceofof fish results in the mass deaths of birds feeding on

fish, and creates the threat of starvation for the populationsof coastal regions whose existence

depends on fishery. Without dwelling on further aspects of the El Nino effect on atmosphericand ecologicalprocesses,

we mention that this same effect can be observed

at great distancesfrom the region where this current is located.
The general feature of all local climatic catastrophes
cases these catastrophes

result in disastrous

consequences,is that, although

in a number

they rarely cause completeofextinc-tion of various species of animals and plants. First, this can be explainedby the fact that mostliving organisms

and second, that theseorganisms

can renew their populationeven after great reductions,can survive in areas with more favorable

to this rule may be less numerousorganisms

environmental

occupyingconditions.

The exception

small areas, ones that were on theverge of extinction before the climatic catastrophe.
Passing to global climatic catastrophes,

these are associatedwith the extinctionof many

species of organisms as a result of drastic changes in climate either over the entire globe or overa part that is so great that it covers areas where a number of representatives
kingdoms

live. It should be particularlyin the occurrence

that the time factor is of great importanceof global climatic catastrophes.

Even comparatively
or even millions

emphasizedof animal and plant

great climatic changes developingof years have not led, as paleontologicalorganisms. The most striking examples
ier advances, in particular to well-studied
In glacial epochsofof these climatic changes pertain to cases of vast glacPleistoceneof this time, the climatic

glaciations.
conditions

regions of middle and high latitudes where glaciations
changed at all latitudes,

for a period of many thousands
data show, to mass extinction

drasticallychangedin thoseadvanced. At the same time, the climate

including the tropics, where, with some cooling, the moisture condi-

tions varied noticeably.
These considerable

climatic changes, greatly affecting living nature, did not result in themass extinction of organisms. The cause of this is very simple: with slow climatic changes ecological systems had not been ruined. These systems were preservedin certain geographicalzones, which shifted as the climate changed. In middle latitudes of the Northern Hemispherethese zones usually shifted southward.
At the same time, gradual changes developed both in the structure of geographicaland ecologicalsystems,

which favored the evolution of the organisms

tems. However, in these cases there was no mass extinction
It is easy to imagine

66

what would have happened

zones

involved in these sys-of organisms.

to animals

and plants if such climaticchanges

had

which

sometimescase

a massiveplant

speciesdeveloped

not overthousands

can be a consequence
ecologicalwouldcatastropheof yearsof explosive
associatedbut in the courseof onevolcanic

Undoubtedly,

eruption.

with the extinction

or twoyears,
in thisof a host of animalandhave occurred.

Discussion
Benjamin Franklin was the first to pay attention to the possible climatic effects of volcanic
gases and dust. He proposed that a large eruption of the Lacki volcano in Iceland in 1783
resulted in "dry fog," a haze that caused a cold summer and poor harvests in Europe. Later,
Savinov (1913), Kimball (1918), Kalitin (1920) and other authors established that after an
explosive volcanic eruption, solar radiation to the Earth's surface decreases drastically. In thesecases, the value of direct radiation averaged over a large area can decrease by 10% to 12% over
several months or years.
A far greater explosive eruption occurred in 1815 in Indonesia (Tambora). From the limited observations available at that time, it is difficult to estimate accurately the average air temperature reduction after the Tambora eruption. However, it is clear that this reduction was
uneven and, in a number of regions, attained several degrees. In particular, in the summer of1816 in Europe and North America, the temperature was so low that the year was called "ayear without summer" (the cause of this was unknown at that time). The eruption of Tambora
deserves attention, because it is the eruption nearest in time that induced a climatic change,
which, in spite of its comparatively short duration, caused noticeable damage to living nature.
In particular, due to drastic decreases in crop yield in a number of regions far from thevolcano, many thousands of people died of starvation (Stommel and Stommel, 1979, 1983).
It is possible that the climatic change after eruption of the volcano on the island of
Santorin in the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea, which took place approximately in 1500
B.C., was much more significant. Although the ecological aftereffects of this eruption are difficult to estimate, it is assumed that they were very considerable and led, in particular, to an
abrupt decline of the highly developed Cretan civilization that had flourished up to that time.
It is possible that this eruption is recorded in folk tales about the ."outer darkness" recounted
in the Bible (Rust, 1982).
There is no doubt that, for far longer time intervals comparable with geological epochs
and periods, the effects of volcanic eruptions on climate and the biosphere were much greaterthan the effects of the eruptions that have occurred over the last several thousand years.
It was known long ago that possible deviations from the norm of intensity indices ofmany natural processes increase as the time interval under consideration increases. Thus, forexample, a catastrophic earthquake, whose probability is very low for a short time interval, isquite probable over a longer time interval.
It is natural to assume that massive anomalies in natural processes—that could not be
observed over the comparatively short period of mankind's existence and for the short time ofenvironmental study—had occurred throughout the long geological history of the Earth.
On the basis of this concept, the theory was formulated of the occurrence of aerosol climatic catastrophes in the past. This theory is based on the following ideas.

67

If the influence of individual explosive eruptions on the Earth's temperature is comparatively small, due to the limited amount of aerosol that the stratosphere gains after every eruption, it is obvious that the Earth's temperature changes much more drastically when many
explosive eruptions occur one after another within a short time interval. The possibility ofsuch coincidences for long periods of time, as a consequence of general statistical rules,
increases noticeably with variations in the mean level of volcanic activity. Similar to this, thegreatest amount of aerosol entering the stratosphere during one volcanic eruption will rise as
the studied time interval grows, due to the same causes that induce the greater frequency oferuptions.
By analyzing empirical data on the influx of aerosol to the stratosphere over the last 100
years (Lamb, 1969), a formula has been derived that relates the maximum aerosol amountentering the atmosphere within a certain time (t) depending on the total duration of the period(T), for which the corresponding analysis is carried out. It follows that the maximum influx ofaerosol with T>t is proportional to the logarithm of ratio T/t.
Using this formula, it was deduced that for sufficiently long periods of time (thousands
or millions of years), the amount of aerosol coming into the atmosphere during 10 years could
exceed by 10- to 20-times the amount of aerosol contained in the stratosphere after the
Krakatoa eruption (1883).
The analysis confirmed the conclusion as to the possibility of the formation of aerosol
layers over sufficiently long time intervals, with the mass inducing the reduction of global
mean surface-air temperature by 5 to 10 degrees centigrade or more. Since, in this case, airtemperature on the continents decreased by far greater values than for the planet as a whole,such coolings could have led to the extinction of numerous species of animals and plants.
The hypothesis of the possibility of aerosol climatic catastrophes as a result of the collision of celestial bodies with the Earth was proposed at the end of the 1970s. Here we shallbriefly explain this hypothesis. One of the results of the falling of large meteorites should be aconsiderable increase in aerosol layer optical density in the atmosphere. Preserved traces of
meteor craters on the Earth's surface allow us to assume that during the long history of the
Earth, meteorites, of a size up to several hundred meters or even more, collided with the Earth.
If, as a result of the explosion caused by a meteorite falling on the Earth's surface, the stratosphere gained aerosol particles of even only a small portion of its mass, it would be sufficient
to cause an abrupt decrease in the solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface.
By calculation it was concluded that after the falling of a sufficiently large meteorite, thetemperature would be lowered by approximately 5 to 10 degrees centigrade for many months,
and this would catastrophically affect various living organisms. The question of effects in thebiosphere caused by the collision of celestial bodies with the Earth attracted great attention
after the appearance of publications by Alvarez et al (1980).
A detailed calculation of climatic effects of the Earth's collision with a large asteroid
was carried out by Toon and coauthors (Toon et al., 1982; Pollack et al., 1983). In these studies, it was concluded that, due to coagulation and sedimentation of the aerosol particles produced by the explosion of the asteroid, the concentration of these particles remains high only
for several months after the asteroid. falls. At this time, the solar radiation influx decreases to68

a level insufficient to support photosynthesis. This calculation shows that attenuating the solar
radiation influx would reduce the mean surface-air temperature over the ocean surface by 2 or
3 degrees centigrade for two or more years, and over the continents by several tens of degrees
for half a year. It was also determined in these calculations that for 10 months after the fallingof an asteroid, the global mean temperature is reduced by 9 degrees centigrade and in 20
months, by 6 degrees centigrade, on average. These results are close to values obtained in thecalculation by Budyko (1980).
The presented materials indicate that, in the geological past, large short-term climaticchanges occurred, which could have affected living nature.
The possibility of these catastrophes occurring follows from the fact that a reduction ofmean air temperature after the large explosive eruptions of the past centuries (Krakatoa andTambora) was less in order of magnitude than would have resulted in a massive aerosol climatic catastrophe. Taking into account that volcanic activity changes considerably with time,and considering in terms of statistics the above possibility of the coincidence of a series of
eruptions over short intervals, it is clear that throughout the Earth's history an increase in thedensity of the volcanic aerosol layer, by at least one order of magnitude, could have taken place
many times.
It is also beyond doubt that a considerable increase in the density of the aerosol layer
occurred after the fall of large celestial bodies on the Earth's surface, although it is much moredifficult to estimate a decrease of atmospheric transparency after these events.
The recent investigations made it possible to assess the consequences of the falling ofan asteroid that caused extinction of animals in the late Cretaceous. In particular, it was supposed that this collision resulted in aerosol emission into the stratosphere three orders of magnitude greater than that due to the largest volcanic eruption over the last 100 to 150 years(Krakatoa, 1883).
It was hypothesized that increased density of the stratospheric aerosol layer caused a
drastic decrease in the influx of solar radiation to the Earth's surface. This resulted in adecrease in photosynthetic activity, which, in turn, caused the extinction of vegetation andthen, of phytivorous animals. This hypothesis, as well as the assessments of some other consequences of the formation of an aerosol screen in the stratosphere, seems to be incorrect. The
most probable cause of climatic catastrophes in the late Cretaceous was surface-air temperature decreases by several degrees due to the decrease in solar radiation influx resulting fromthe increased density of the aerosol layer after the collision of the asteroid with the Earth orincreased volcanic activity due to the destruction of a part of the Earth's crust after that collision.
Discussing the possible causes of aerosol climatic catastrophes, the narrowness of the"climatic zone of life" (the range of physical and chemical conditions in the atmosphere andhydrosphere under which living organisms can exist) on our planet should be taken into
account.
During the millions of years before the catastrophe of the late Cretaceous, climatic conditions at all latitudes of the planet differed comparatively insignificantly, being either warmor hot. Consequently, living organisms were stenothermal and a short-term, small temperature69

decrease (by several degrees) could cause mass extinction of many plants and animals.
Such changes in the biosphere did occur over the last 100-million years, such as in thelate Cretaceous and Cenozoic periods. Information about the temperature regime over thisperiod is presented in Table 1 (Budyko, Ronov and Yanshin, 1985), where Mc (%) is the bulk
concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere, DS/S is the ratio of the difference between solar radiation in the past and present to the modern solar constant, and DA is the difference between the
Earth's albedos, expressed in the parts of unity.
Taking into account that present mean surface-air temperature equals 15 degrees centigrade, and assuming that a radiation increase of 1% with constant albedo causes a mean temperature increase of 1.4 degrees centigrade, while an albedo increase of 0.01 causes a temperature decrease of 2 degrees centigrade, the difference between the mean air temperature in thegeological past and present can be determined from the data in Column DT in degrees ofcentigrade.
Table 1. Difference

betweenmean

air temperaturein the geologicalpast and present

PeriodDuration(Million Years)

Mc (%)

dS/S

DA

DT

Late Cretaceous

101-67=34

0.178

0.004

0.016

10.4

Paleocene

67-58= 9

0.076

0.003

0.015

6.7

Eocene58-37=21

0.120

0.003

0.015

8.5

Oligocene

37-25=12

0.032

0.002

0.014

2.8

Miocene25-9=16

0.076

0.001

0.012

6.4

Pliocene

9-2= 7

0.045

0.008

3.4

0

Over the relatively short Quaternary period, CO2 concentration in the atmosphere fluctuatedconsiderably and the tendency for a CO2 concentration decrease, which appeared long before
the beginning of the Cenozoic, continued to intensify. In the coldest Pleistocene epochs, when
glaciation developed, the mean surface-air temperature was about 5 degrees centigrade lower
than the modern one.
Calculations using climate theoretical models show that in the warm epochs of thePhanerozoic the climate changed comparatively little in the tropical latitudes, while in the
middle and especially in the high latitudes, air temperature was much higher than at present(Manabe and Bryan, 1985). As a result, the climate in the polar regions was comparatively
warm. Paleogeographic investigations show that in the Mesozoic and early Cenozoic, forests
consisting of evergreen species existed in the high latitudes.
The comparison of empirical data on mean air-temperature fluctuations with thechanges in CO2 concentration and albedo confirm the conclusion that those were climateforming factors for the intervals mentioned in Table 1.

70

The idea of the influence of atmospheric chemical composition on nature was put forward in the early 19th century by Geoffroy St.-Hilaire, who wrote: "Let us suppose that withtime gradual changes occurred in the ratio between different elements of the atmosphere andit was an unavoidable consequence that these changes affected the fauna" (E. Geoffroy St.Hilaire, 1833). For a long time the idea of Geoffroy St.-Hilaire did not attract any attention due
to the absence of reliable information about the changes in atmospheric chemical compositionin the geological past. In recent years, after new data on atmospheric chemical compositionchanges in the geological past had been received, these data were compared with the historyof natural evolution.
It is probable that, of the different components of the external environment, the amountof oxygen in the air is one of the most essential factors of life activities for terrestrial animals(or for aquatic animals, the amount of oxygen in the water, which depends on the atmospheric
oxygen concentration). The level of metabolism of aerobic animals is directly dependent on
the amount of oxygen in the environment, increasing, other things being equal, with anincrease in oxygen content.
Additional energy received by an animal in the environment with increased oxygen
content may be used for different purposes, including the development of a more complex
structure of the organism, or its individual organs and tissues, in the course of evolution.
Especially important, in this case, might be the improvement of organs maintaining metabolism, such as circulatory and respiratory systems in vertebrates.
Of considerable interest is the question about general principles of animal evolution
throughout a long period from the end of the Carboniferous to the end of the Triassic, when theatmospheric oxygen level decreased for the longest time in the Phanerozoic. As a result, at theend of the Permian and throughout a part of the Triassic, oxygen was only 20% to 25% of its
present level, which is close to the average Late Proterozoic amount of oxygen. The lower(exothermal) vertebrates that used relatively little oxygen could more easily adapt to such conditions. It is very doubtful whether the higher (endothermal) vertebrates could exist at such low
oxygen concentrations.
It is evident that with a decrease in atmospheric oxygen content, the life activities of animals and their mutual relations with other components of ecological systems must have beenchanging. A gradual deterioration of the conditions for the existence of animals must havebeen reflected in the specific features of the evolutionary process in the period in question.
These features were long noted by paleontologists, although their causes were
unknown. In particular, Simpson (1961) wrote: "It is interesting that no phylum has expanded
steadily from the time of its appearance to the present day. The most nearly general feature isthat most of the phyla contracted in the Permian, Triassic or both."The principle indicated by Simpson was also confirmed by many other investigators.
For instance, Raup and Stanley (1971) present a scheme of temporal variations in the numberof taxons of fossil animals in the Phanerozoic, which shows that against a gradual increase in
the number of taxons, their number abruptly declined in only one single period, in the Triassic.
The authors indicate that, in fact, this contraction began in the middle of the Permian.
Robinson (1971) states that from the Permian to the Late Triassic the number of genera of ther-71

apsids became ten times less and the number of genera of sauropsids increased considerably.
This shows that conditions were unfavorable for the existence of mammal-like reptiles for thegreatest part of the Triassic. Worth noting is also a tendency that appeared in the Triassic
toward a decrease in size of the therapsids, which belonged to the most progressive groups.
This tendency may be due to a growing shortage of oxygen, since the maintenance of themetabolism of large animals requires more oxygen than for small animals, other things being
equal.
It might be supposed that a decreasein oxygen content during the Late Permian and theTriassic greatly retarded the process of the formation of mammals, which extended over anenormous interval of time, about one-hundred-millionyears. This class of vertebrate spread
only with a new rise in atmospheric oxygen, which began in the second half of the Triassic.
Another considerable decrease in oxygen concentrationoccurred during the second halfof the Cretaceous. At this time, the oxygen content decreased by more than 1.5 times andapproacheda level somewhat lower than the modem one. Although this level was rather highcompared to the average conditions of the Phanerozoic, it is probable, however, that the oxygen decrease in the Cretaceous was of importance for the fauna of that time, and, in particular,caused the extinction of some groups of animals at the end of the Mesozoic.
Following these considerations, it might be concluded that the formation of modern
classes of vertebrates was determined to a great extent by global changes in the environment,
one of the causes of which was variations in the degassing of the Earth's mantle.
As mentioned earlier, with increases in the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere in therange of its variations throughout the Phanerozoic, possibilities emerged for the new groups ofanimals, which use more energy in the course of their vital activity,to evolve. Therefore, it isnatural to suppose that in the epochs of increased oxygen concentrations, the diversity of faunagrew larger, while in epochs of decreased oxygen content their diversity diminished.
Turning to the problem of the influenceof carbon dioxide changes in the atmosphere on
animate nature, let us note that in some cases this influence was combined with that of atmospheric oxygen changes. Thus, in particular, in the example of the dissemination of aerobic
organisms with the formation of oxygen atmosphere, the oxygen concentration in the atmosphere started to grow after a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide content below a certain
limit, which resulted from a relevant decrease in the influx rate of carbon monoxide and othernot fully oxidized gases in the atmosphere.
During the Phanerozoic, carbon dioxide fluctuations considerably influenced photosyntheticproductivityand climatic conditions. These fluctuations undoubtedly influenced thelife of plants and, to a lesser extent, that of animals.
The comparison of variations in carbon dioxide with principal events in the development of vegetation is impeded by the lack of a generally accepted chronology of the considerable changes in the nature of vegetation. Krasilov (1977) identified four major epochs in theformation of the higher taxonomic groups of plants: the second half of the Devonian, thePermian to the beginning of the Triassic, the Cretaceous and the Miocene. The first of these
epochs is associated with the formation of progymnospermous forests, the second with the
expansion of coniferous forests, the third with the emergence of archaic flowering plants and72the fourth with the appearance of steppe plant communities.
It may be noted that these epochs correspond to four out of the five maxima in carbon
dioxide concentration that were enumerated. This testifies that an increased productivity ofphotosynthesis considerably affected the progressive development of plants.
Since the existence of all living organisms depends on the atmospheric chemical composition, the question naturally arises: why did the atmospheric chemical composition vary forabout four-billion years within a range permitting not only continuous preservation of life on
the Earth (the continuous existence of the biosphere), but also the progressive development oforganisms, among which many achieved a high level of complexity in the course of a long evolution?
Although this question has rarely been discussed in scientific studies, it could beanswered in two different ways. One of them is the so-called "Hypothesis of Gaia," which suggests that living organisms have the ability to control the environment, and to maintain a statefavorable for their life activity (Margulis and Lovelock, 1974; Lovelock, 1979). The authorsof this hypothesis have not adduced any definite proofs in favor of their idea, and it is mainly
based on the apparent impossibility of otherwise accounting for the long existence of the biosphere.
The presented conclusions about the mechanism of the evolution of the atmospherehave indicated that variations in the physical state and chemical composition of the atmospheredepend mostly on two external factors, namely, the evolution of the Sun, which leads to a
gradual increase in solar radiation, and the evolution of the Earth, in the course of which theprocess of degassing of the upper mantle gradually attenuates. The first of these processes isentirely independent of the activity of terrestrial organisms and the second almost so.
The causes of the antiquity of the Earth's biosphere can therefore be explained otherwise. In might be thought that this antiquity is a result of random coincidence (independent of
the existence of organisms) of the direction and rate of the processes of the Sun and the Earth's
evolution, which are not connected to each other. Since the probability of such a coincidence
is extremely low, it means that life (and particularly its higher forms) in the Universe is an
exceptionally rare phenomenon.
This point of view has been developed in a number of works (Budyko, 1977, 1980,
1984; Hart, 1978, 1979). As has been noted in these works, the atmosphere in which life on any
planet can exist must have a specific physical state and chemical composition.
Let us conclude that life could originate on Earth and be preserved for billions of years
because of the coincidences of several factors. It might well be considered that the probabilityof each of these coincidences was very low.
Conclusion
In the early 1970s, an estimate of the increase in the carbon dioxide concentration and meansurface-air temperature expected to occur in the next century was presented (Budyko, 1972).
In recent years, many forecasts of changes in mean air temperature in the next century havebeen published. It should be noted that these forecasts, as a rule, are in good agreement. The
investigations show that in the nearest decades, due to the effect of man's economic activity on73

the atmospheric chemical composition, considerable climate changes are to occur. In the past,
it took thousands of years for climate changes of such scale to develop. As these climatechanges would influence different economical objects, which are now being projected or built,
it is clear that information about the forthcoming climate changes is of great practical importance.
References
Alvarez, L.W., et al. "Extraterrestrial Cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary Extinctions: Experiment and Theory."
Science, 208 (1980). 1095-11/8.
Budyko, M.I. Human's Impact on Climate.Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1972. (In Russian).
Budyko, M.I. "Climatic Change." Washington,D.C.: American Geophysical Union, 1977. 261.
Budyko, M.I. The Earth's Climate: Past and Future. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 1980. 352. [English Version:
N.Y.: Academic Press, 1982. 3071
Budyko,M.I. The Evolution of the Biosphere. Dordrecht: Reidel, 423.
Budyko, M.I., G.S. Golitsyn and Y.A. Izrael. Global Climatic Catastrophes. N.Y.: Springer-Verlag, 1986. 99.

Budyko,M.I.,A.B.RonovandA.L.Yanshin.Historyof theEarth'sAtmosphere.
N.Y.:Springer-Verlag,
1987.
139.
Geoffroy St.Hilaire, E. "Le degre d'influence du mond ambiant pour modifier les formes animales." Met. Acad.
Sci., 12 (1883). Paris. 64-93.
Hart, M.H. "An Explanation for the Absence of Extraterrestrials on Earth." Icarus, 33 (1978). 23-29.
Hart, M.H. "Habitable Zones about Main Sequence Stars." Icarus, 37 (1979). 351-357.
Kalitin, N.N. "On the Question about Time of Onset of Optical Anomaly in 1912." Izv. GFO, No. 1. (1920). 11.
(In Russian).
Kimball, H.H. "Volcanic Eruptions and Solar Radiation Intensities." "Mon. Wea.Rev., 46 (8) (1918). 355-356.
Krasilov, V.A. Evolution and Biostratigraphy. Moscow: Nauka, 1977. 256. (In Russian).
Lamb, H.H. "Activite volcanique et climate." Revuede geographie physique et geologie dynamique, VXI, No. 3,
1969.
Lovelock, J.E. Gaia. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1979. 157.
Manabe, S. and K. Bryan. "CO2-InducedChange in a Coupled Ocean-AtmosphereModel." J. Geogr. Res., V. 90,
1985.
Margulis,L. and J.E. Lovelock. "Biological Modulation of the Earth's Atmosphere." Icarus, 21 (1974). 471-489.
Pollack, J.B., et al. "Environmental Effects of an Impact-Generated Dust Cloud: Implications for the CretaceousTertiary Extinctions." Science, 219 (1983). 287-289.
Raup, D.M. and S.M. Stanly. Principles of Paleontology. San Francisco: Freeman, 1971. 331.
Robinson, P.L. "A Problem of Faunal Replacement on Permo-Triassic Continents." Paleontology, 14-1 (1971).
131-152.
Rust, K. Volcanosand Volcanism.Moscow: Mir, 1982. 344. (In Russian).
Savinov,S.I. "The GreatestValues of Solar Radiation Intensity according to Observationsin Pavlovsk since 1892."
Izvestia of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ser. 6, Vol. 7, No. 12, 1913. (In Russian).
Simpson, G.G. Life of the Past. New Haven: Yale Univ. Press, 198.
Stommel,H. and E. Stommel.Volcano Weather: The Story of a Year without Summer.Boston: Seven Seas, 1983.
177.

74

Lecture

GlobalClimateWarming

Professor

Mikhailand its Consequences
I. Budyko

Modern Climate Change
It has been recognised in the second half of the present century that the chemical compositionand physical state of the atmosphere started to change under the impact of man-made activity,
contributingto overall biospheric change. Uncontrolled anthropogenic impact on large-scale
processes in the biosphere might result in a global ecological crisis, hence the necessity to better understand all possible anthropogenic climate-relatedchanges in the biosphere in order tobe able to predict these changes, whatever the scenario for economic development. To resolve
this question in a similar way to many other environmental issues, we have to meet a certain
challenge that is different from those of most other scientific disciplines.The study of the relationship between living organisms (including human beings) and the environment requires themobilisationof data and methods inherent in other areas of study, particularlythose of biology,
geography, geophysics, geochemistry, geology, economics, engineering and others. Each of
the science sectors mentioned includes a wide spectrum of more specific disciplines.
Today,when the information volume in each science field is such that they must be further sub-dividedinto more specialities, the ability to combine all the data of all these fields toresolve our problems becomes more limited. However, without such a synthesis of currently
availableinformation, no progress in the study of global ecology would be possible.
During the past few decades, a number of scientific works have been published dealing
with models of global ecological system development. One of the themes of these works
addresses the study of modern climate change. This study has revealed that, due to the burning of ever increasing amounts of coal, oil and other types of fossil fuel, the chemical composition of the atmosphere will undergo certain changes, mainly caused by the growth in theamount of carbon dioxidein the atmosphere.This change has resulted in a significant enhancement of the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, which is believed to be a major cause of
global warming.This warming has already induced changes in many biospheric components,
including the hydrosphere,cryosphere, soil, vegetationand animal life. Some of these changes
affect the lives and activities of man. This illustrates the need to develop forecasts of possible
future effects of anthropogenicfactors on the biosphere. If these forecasts are to be used in thelong-term planning of economic development, they should be highly trustworthy. Necessary
forecast reliabilitycan only be ensured by further developmentsin the study of global ecology.
To make a correct assessment of future changes in the biosphere, we should have a better knowledge of the evolution of the biosphere in past geologicalepochs with emphasis on theepochs when the biosphere underwent most rapid changes.
The considerable effort invested in these studies has provided a global reconstruction ofsummer and winter surface-airtemperatures as well as annual precipitation levels during three75

warm epochs of the past (Optimumsof Holocene, Riss-WurmInterglacial and Pliocene), whenmean surface-airtemperatures were, respectively, 1°C, 2°C, and 3°C to 4°C higher than thoseof the preindustrial period. Figures 1, 2, and 3 show surface-air temperature changes during (a)warm and (b) cold seasons of the year, and (c) the same for annual precipitation amounts.
These maps can be used as paleoanalogue scenarios of regional climatic changes under current
global warming, by the end of the first decade, and the first quarter and the middle of the next
century,respectively.
During the last 15years, a group of Russian scientists has been carrying out a study into
the changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere in the geological past. The main
attention was directed toward studying the history of two atmospheric components, carbon
dioxide and oxygen, during the Phanerozoic period, that is 570—to 590—million years ago.
Data on the evolution of the chemical composition of air was compared with data on the development of animate life. A close correlation has been establishedbetween major organism evolutionary stages and changes in the chemical composition of atmosphericair. Evidence regarding carbon dioxide variations in the geological past obtained during the study has been used toobtain a better insight into modern anthropogenic climate changes, which are caused by anincrease in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as a result of fossil fuel burning. A trend of
atmospheric carbon dioxide decrease during the cenozoic era (the last 70 million years) has
been revealed.It has been shownthat this decreasing trend alternated with epochs with higher
carbon dioxide concentrations.The general pattern of the variations in mean surface-air temperature in the cenozoic era was found to be in step with that of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
A close correlation between the variation in carbon dioxide content and changes inmean surface-air temperatures is particularly important. The correlation for the mean air temperature for geological series during the Tertiary period has a correlation coefficient higher
than 0.9 (Fig. 4). This correlation can be used to assess the carbon dioxide greenhouse effecton air temperatures. This effect manifests itself in an increase in mean surface-air temperatureof 3°C with a doubling in the level of carbon dioxide. This value is close to a similar coefficientobtained to estimate the impact of carbon dioxide on the thermal regime of the atmosphere
employing climate theory methods. Assuming that the relationship between surface-air temperatures and the chemical composition of the atmosphere is fairly well known, we can use
paleoclimatic data to ascertain a similar relationship for various regions of the globe. A similar goal was set up for the study of other modern climate element changes, particularly atmospheric precipitation. The correlation of future climate predictions obtained by certain independent methods of climate theory and by empirical methods used to estimate expectedchanges in major climate elements can be proposed as a criterion for the skill score in forecasting regional climate changes. These methods can include paleoanalogues of modem climate changes, data on climate conditions during recent warm geological epochs and various
models of the theory of climate.
It was only after 1970 that the mechanisms of modem climate change were included in
the scope of research efforts. It was recognised in 1970 that during several recent decades aslow surface-airtemperature decrease occurred, but what caused the cooling was not yet clear.

76

One school of climatologists believed the cooling would continue in the coming years, whilemost of the experts were sure that it would be impossible to predict the climate of the future
reliably and with sound scientific substantiation. I, however, firmly believed that in the near
future we would witness a global warming that would reach a few degrees Celsius in the next
century. I expressed the belief at an international conference in Leningrad in 1971. At the'same time, I published this viewpoint, though in the 1970s nobody supported my suggestion.
In the middle of the 1970s, observational data was published that suggested a possibility ofwarming in the high latitudes. Similar evidence was found for certain regions of the middle latitudes. Finally, in the 1980s and 1990s mean surface-air temperatures were observed to reachrecord high values. Recently, global warming has been recognised as fact by international
research organisations and has also been confirmed by numerous climatological scientificpublications.
Empirical analysis of climate regularities during the past 15 years has shown that in a
number of regions on our planet anomalies in precipitation and surface-air temperatures insummer and winter over this time period seemed to be similar to those predicted for the early
21st century.The predictions have been made based on data on regional climatic features ofclimate change in the Holocene Optimum.
Our publications, starting with the first ones concerned with a forthcoming global
warming, discussed its impact on the environment, in particular on the cryosphere. At the endof our century,this.prediction has proved to be correct: the extent of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean
has decreased; the sea ice itself has become thinner; many mountain glaciers have broken off;
permafrost in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere has retreated northward; and theprecipitation regime in arid and semiarid areas has changed.
The increase in mean surface-air temperaturesover the past 30 years, predicted by us asearly as the 1970s, should exceed 0.5°C. This estimate is in agreement with the results ofweather observations for the same time interval (Fig. 5). It is a remarkable and quite unusual
event in the history of climatology that a forecast of global climate change has been confirmed
by direct observations, since repeated attempts to predict future climate changes as a rule used
to fail. One could think that the use of physical climatology methods would allow us to makea successful forecast of climate change in the first half of the 21st century. Unfortunately, theaccuracy of such a forecast and the period for which it could be made would be limited. This
limitation can be attributedto two factors, the major one being insufficientlyreliable estimatesof the chemicalcomposition of atmospheric air in the future, which will be dependent on international treaties controlling gas emissions into the atmosphere. The second reason is insufficient predictions of climate change for periods severaldecades long, though this accuracy hasmuch improved of late. It is possible that by using several empirical and theoretical methods
to estimate anthropogenic impacts on climate simultaneously, it will be possible to increase
this accuracy.
In general, we can conclude that today it is possible to make quite a reliable forecast ofregional mean surface-air temperature changes in the cold season, particularly for high latitudes. If this problem seems to be resolved, the temperature changes in the warm season cannot be predicted with the same accuracy.This might, to a certain degree, be explained by the77

fact that the values of these predicted changes in the warm season are relatively small. With
respect to precipitation, we can conclude that both modelling and analogue estimations are notcapable today of providing forecasts of potential future precipitation changes with required
accuracy. For relatively short periods (the next two decades), we can suggest that the forecasts
made on the basis of empirical evidence (analogue method) are capable of ensuring a certain
degree of reliability.
We might express our hope that to improve predictions of future climate changes a certain international body be set up to ensure cooperation among leading specialists in the fieldof physical climatology.
Consequences
Climateof Modern

Changes

We can assume

Climateand the Globalthat among

Warming

Food Problem

the numerous

consequences

The accuracyof predicting

the impactof thesechanges

ceptionof the economic

importanceof modernclimatechanges.

It also predetermines

thewith a due accountof pre-of global

warming

adaptation

shouldbe resolved

indicatethat by the middleof the earth's

population

growth,which

population

will reachabout

10-billion

countries,

in periodic

the availability

food supply

In this regard,one

would

if not increase,at least would

necessary
impactto double
of expected

To answerof a significant
unlikelycrisispeople.

total world

this question
expansion

due to the highfoodwarming

Simpleproduction.

we should

considerlandof theto the per-fact that,

exclud-is insufficient.

Thisfood productionThis

the question,

begs
problema numberneededof the next century

and Asianindicateover the nextlevel of investmentof African

estimateson this importantof arable

population

in a number

like to hope that in the next decade

globalrelatedIt is a well-knownof food for the earth's
and famine

not decrease.

of view

strategy.

of agriculture

the earth's

results

is closelyof the future

dictions

ing developed

the point

the ones

economy.

to the issue

fromwarming

on agriculture

The problems

significant

globalto the impact

answerare the mostof expectedthat relate

countries.

per capita would,

that to achieve"Whatthis, it iswill be thefor mankind?"of factors.

decades,to effect

Analysing

the prospect

we can assume

agriculturalthat

this isdevelopmentoverlarge new land areas with low soil fertility.
The second
ment

importantquestion

for assessing

and the role of global

warming

relatesfrom the introduction
ity has shownof new intensivethat for a number

might

expectcertainexpectworld

agriculture

resultof the introductionis this production

tangibledoubling

prospects

to possible

agriculturalfor futurelevelstechnologies.

of crops

and regions,improvements.

However,where

agriculturalof crop yield
An analysis
the present

our calculations

develop-growthof this possibil-

yieldsshow

resultingare low, wethat we cannot

to double

its production

by the middleof the next century

only as aof intensive

agricultural

technologies.

However,stated,that is needed

to maintainthe present

world

as alreadyitlevel of per capita foodconsumption.
In the context

of the present

discussion,

we can pose

anotherquestion.

What

would

be

the effectsof importantexpectedglobalchangeslike the growthin concentrationof atmospheric78

carbondioxideand changes

in temperaturesand precipitation?

As stipulatedby fundamental concepts of plant physiology, the concentration of carbon
dioxide in the atmosphereis one of the major factors in crop productivity. Togetherwith solar
radiation, atmospheric carbon dioxide is the photosynthesis substratum and, in accordancewith the laws of biological kinetics, contributesto higher crop productivity. Variousproblems
regarding the direct physiological impact of atmospheric carbon dioxide increases on plant
productivityhave been discussed in detail in special publications. In fact, we can conclude, on
the basis of the experimental results reported in a large number of publications, that theincrease in atmosphericcarbon dioxide is a factor that favourably affects the main crops.
Specific estimates of the effects of atmospheric temperature and precipitation changes
on potential productivityin various regions of the earth depend on the climate-change scenarios that are used in the calculations. As an example, I can demonstrate the potential productivity changes in the three most important crops in the world (wheat, rice and maize) in a number of countries corresponding to different levels of global warming and atmospheric carbon
dioxide (Table 1).
Assessing the importance of expected climate change by its impacts on world agriculture, we can conclude that growing anthropogenic global warming and, in particular, theincrease in carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere can have a favourable effect on
crop productivityin many regions of the earth. However,we should not forget that these estimates for different regions could be significantly different.
Climate Change Effectson Natural Zonality
Climate changes predicted for the next few decades should have a considerable impact on natural terrestrial vegetation and its geographical distribution.
As demonstrated by the analogue scenarios, during the first stages of a global warmingof 1°Cto 2°C, the Arctic continental tundra in northern Europe would completely disappear,
while its southern boundary in Siberia might significantly shift northward. If global temperatures increase 2°C, the southern boundary of taiga forests might move northward, reaching
65°N,where the taiga would replace mixed forest. At the same time, the coniferous forest areas
would shift northward by almost 10 degrees latitude. The boundary of the forest/steppe would
also move northward, eastward and westward. The steppe in Russia would cover the area currently occupied by coniferous forests.
According to the paleoanalogue scenarios, the areas occupied by tundra and forest/tundra in Eurasia would be greatly affected and their areas would significantly decrease. Today,these two zones taken together cover almost 20% of Russia. Under the impact of a global
warming of 2°C, it would shrink to merely 4%. The coniferous forest might suffer a reduction
by a factor of three or evenmore. On the contrary,the broad-leaf forest geographicrange would
cover 15%instead of the current 1%. According to various estimates, the area of forest/steppe
within the former Soviet Union would double and the steppe geographic range would increaseby 80%.
When summarising the results obtained by different methods, we should state that,
despite some differences in quantitative estimates, the principal conclusions on major trends
in the variations of natural phytoceonoses under the impact of global warming are similar.

79

Thereis broadagreement

among

many

drawn

from the predictedclimatechanges,

forest,the expansion

Thisallowswhen

makingthe protectionof the steppe

us to express
environmentallyof naturalinvestigators

regardingsuch as the shrinking

area and a possible

decrease

the important

inferencesof the tundrazone and boreal

in deserts

our hopethat thesemethods

sounddecisionsof socio-economicsignificancevegetation

under

the impact

can be usedof expected

and semidesert

in practice,globalto beareas.

particularly

with respecttowarming.

Global Warmingand Permafrost
The permafrost areas in Eurasia and North America are quite extensive. During the past
decades, they have been subject to considerable anthropogenic impact. This poses a problem
of substantiating and forecasting their future optimal development. An important aspect thatshould be taken into account when developingforecasts concerningthe state of the permafrost
area in the near future and the long-term is the evolving changes in the thermal regime of theearth's surface under the impact of global warming.
The possible evolution of permafrost within Russia has been analysed in great detail,drawingextensivelyon paleoanaloguescenarios of climate change. Figure 6 illustrates the areaof cryolithozone in Eurasia where a "separation" of the permafrost from the upper layer of seasonally freezing soil could be expected under a 2°C warming. The computations have shownthat given such climate change, a significant variation in the upper layer of the permafrost
would be observed over an area covering 15% to 20% of the territory currently characterisedby the permafrost. Computations made at sites located in various latitudinal zones of the permafrost allow us to make an assessment of the "velocity" with which this area of permafrost
degradation would move northward under the impact of such warming. Estimates indicate
this velocity to be 10-15 km per year in western Siberia and 20-25 km per year in eastern
Siberia and the Far East. With regard to the rate of vertical shift of the upper boundary of thepermafrost due to downward thermal disturbance penetration caused by global warming, calculations have shown that over the next 50 years the separation of the permafrost from theupper soil layer might be about seven metres.
Changes in Energy Consumptionfor Heating
A reduction in the consumption of energy resources due to shorter and less severe cold seasons
might be one of the important implications of global warming in the northern regions of theNorthernHemisphere. As estimations show,a global warming of 1°C would make the heating
period (when heating is required to maintain room temperature) one to two months shorter in
the north of Russia and 10to 15 days shorter in its central regions and in the southern republicsof the former Soviet Union. Under a more significant warming (3°C to 4°C), the duration of
the heating period in these regions might decrease even more, i.e. two to four months in thenorth and one to two months over the rest of the former Soviet Union.
Calculations made with respect to the middle latitudes of Asia (Mongolia, the People's
Republic of China and the Korean Peninsula) show that with a global warming of 1°C, theheating period might decrease by 10 to 15 days. By the middle of the next century,with a more
substantial warming, the duration of the heating period in these countries might become a80month shorter. For most of Canada and Alaska during the first stage of global warming, theperiod should be 20 to 30 days shorter and 10 to 15 days shorter in the United States, where,by the middle of the 21st century; this reduction might reach a month or a month and a half.
For northern Canada this reduction might amount to three months, and a month and a half to
two months for its southern regions.
Today in Russia, the consumption of energy required for heating during the cold season
amounts to 300-350 degree-months (the total of daily difference between room temperatureand outside temperature of each month) in the north of the country and 50-100 degree-months
in its southern regions. Calculations indicate that, at the beginning of the next century, heatconsumption should decrease 15% to 20% compared to the present rate in the far northern
regions of European Russia and in west Siberia. Should the warming continue and reach 3°C
to 4°C, energy consumption costs would decrease by a factor of two in the north of East Siberia
and the Far East.
In western and central Europe, energy consumption during a heating period at the beginning of the 21st century might fall by 10% to 20%, and by 20% to 40% by the middle of thenext century. For Mongolia, the PRC and the Korean Peninsula, estimates for the reduction inenergy costs are predicted to decrease by 10% to 15% and 30% to 40%, respectively. In
Canada and the U.S.A., these would be 10% to 15% and 30% to 50% lower, respectively.
Unlike the northern regions, for which a reduction in energy costs is expected under the
potential climate change, a number of southern countries might need to spend more on energy
to provide quality air conditioning in buildings. This is one of the negative consequences ofglobal warming. Remembering that it is in the southern countries that most of the world's population lives, higher costs of energy for air conditioning inside buildings might exceed the savings gained by lower energy consumption in the northern regions. Detailed study of this problem would provide an answer regarding future energy export/import requirements.
Hydrological Response to Climate Change
Without doubt, among the main consequences of anthropogenic climate change, variations inwater resources in many territories and the hydrologic regime of many rivers, lakes, water
reservoirs and the ground water could be very serious. Possible changes in hydrologic parameters will impact directly on many sectors of industry, agriculture, hydroenergetics and certainly on the environment. As an example, we could examine some data obtained using similar methods concerning three large Eurasian river basins—those of the Volga, Dnieper andYenisey rivers.
The analysis of the data obtained for these rivers shows that, under changes in climateparameters according to all available models and paleoanalogue scenarios of global warming
to the middle of the next century, we can expect an increase in water resources in their basins.
The estimates according to the model scenario developed in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic
Laboratory (Princeton University, U.S.A.) and the Pliocene Optimum paleoanalogue scenario
indicate that the annual runoffs for the Volga and Dnieper rivers could increase by approximately 35%. According to these scenarios, the Yenisey river runoff will increase by 20%.
When using the climate change scenario developed by British specialists, which is charac-

81

terisedby the largest

considerablychangeestimates

in precipitation

growth,more.

In this regard,

we can conclude

will provide

future growthin waterfor the Yenisey
Whilstthe runoffs

withdrawals

it is interesting

to predictof how it changes

sonal distributionof the runoffchangesas the great

in annualseason-by-season.

river runoff,of rivers such as thosementioned

dynamics

of precipitation

and air temperature.

rent temporal

dynamicsof the runoffsof the Volgamaximum

observedcausedin autumn,

wintering. As the predictions
considerablychanges

effect

from

show,

the maximum
to April,climate,a similar

situation

time the spring

runoffshould

might

from

May

of theseriversin climate

Predictions

have a bet-changerunoffA minimum

underand Dnieper

would

global
might

based

decreasefor the middle

stronglythat the cur-a well-pronounced

occurs.

to October,regimerespondindicate

have

would

As

that the sea-

above wouldof the Volgarivers.

river is not at risk.

we shouldof the runoff

This pattern

day in that the largest

last longer

will increase

due to climatic

have shown

Estimates

and Dnieper

mostrunoffthe changes

distribution.

to the present

flood

when

while

the runoff

in July. As for the Yenisey,on the seasonalmelting,and late summer.

Novemberin the regionalreachedby snow

SiberianCalculations

to the temporal

Springin runofffrom the Volga and Dnieper

river, we can only hope that its future

ter understandingof these rivers

that the increase

warmincreaseon predicted

witha minimum

have a less profoundof the next century

will occur

isin spring,show

thoughinand start a little earlier.

Conclusion
In addition to the probable effects of global warming discussed above, the most important andadverse effects of projected changes in climate on other related sectors would be caused byhigher air temperature, higher evapotranspiration, dryer soils and a rise in the sea level. As
indicated in many crop response studies, higher air temperature would lead to increased hightemperature injury to crops (rice, maize, sorghum) and domestic animals, and to increased
incidence of heat-stroke in the aged and young population in summer seasons. It is also
expected that the projected global warming would cause a northward shift of weeds, pests anddiseases that are now mainly found in subtropical and tropical regions. The rise in sea level,
resulting from the thermal expansion of the oceans and partial melting of glaciers, should
affect agriculture and other sectors, mainly through the inundation of low-lying lands.
Therefore, in the mid- and lower latitudes, where higher summer temperatures and drying soil
may be expected to occur frequently due to global warming, the potential yield of many crops
could be reduced by 10% to 30%.
On the other hand, our simulation results obtained using paleoclimatological data andsemi-empiricalweather-crop models indicated clearly that the potential productivity of crops
in the northern regions of Russia and the Canadian prairies, where such productivity is largely
limited due to lower summer temperatures at present, may be enhanced by projected global
warming. However,much of the increased potential in these regions may not be exploited for
future food production because of inappropriate soils and difficult terrain. Therefore, it seems
that the productive advantages of global warming at higher latitudes, such as the northern
regions of Russia and the Canadian prairies, would not compensate for the projected reductionin potential yield in current major crop producing regions, such as the U.S. Great Plains and82southern Europe. On balance, it is very difficult to conclude with higher accuracy whether the
projected global warming would be globally beneficial to human society or not.
60

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7'60 80 .470-'0 40 80 120 1.60 180

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Figure 1. Climate changes for the years 2005-2010 according to the Holocene Optimum analog scenario. From top
to bottom: surface-air temperature in July/August(°C); surface-air temperature in January/February; and annual precipitation(cm).

83

'60

(a)

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Figure 2. Climate changes for the years 2025-2030 according to the Riss-Wurm Interglacial Optimum analog scenario. From top to bottom: surface-air temperature in July/August(°C); surface-air temperature in January/February;
and annual precipitation(cm).

84

(a)

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Figure 3. Climate changes for the years 2045-2050 according to the Pliocene Optimum analog scenario . From top
to bottom: surface-air temperature in July/August(°C); surface-air temperature in January/February; and annual precipitation(cm).

85

0.20

0.10

20

10

0
60

40

0

20
millionyears

Figure 4. The changes in carbon dioxide content in the earth's atmosphere (upper curve) and the surface-air temperature (three lower curves) during the last 70 million years.
Curves 1, 2 and 3 correspond to the data for the west of Northern America, for the Northern Hemisphereas a whole and for the northern part of the North Sea, respecitively.

3

0.6
0.4

0.2
2

0
-0 .2

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1950

2000

Figure 5. The changes in the surface-air temperatureduring the 20th century:
1. The changes in 11-year smooth values of mean surface-air temperaturein the Northern
Hemisphere.
Curve 2. The forecast of the changes in globally averaged mean surface-air temperatureoffered i n 1972.
Polygonal line 3. Annual values of mean surface-air temperature
anomalies observed after 1970.
Curve

86

60

Figure120

I80.

6. The areas of permafrost degradation (shaded) in Eurasia under a global warming of 2°C.

Table 1. Changes in climatic potential of productivity (%) for three principal crops (wheat-W, rice-R, maize-M)
according to three paleoanalog scenarios of future climate change
1: 1°C global warming,
2: 2°C global warming,
3: 3°C global warming,--

400 ppm carbon dioxide content
460 ppm carbon dioxide content
550 nnm carbon dioxide content

-

1

2

3

Countries
R

Austria
Denmark

9
10
9
7
3
4

13

38

28

51

21

12

24

23

47

8
6

7

10

16

8

16

1^1.

5

6

7

15

10

12

22

9
12

34

13
23

21

11

15

M

26

10

6
5

H
31
32

15

FranceGermany
Hungary
Italy
Netherlands
RussiaUkraineSpain
CanadaMexico

M

14

9
9
9

26

17

20

15

22

30
43

29

22

55

69

USA

2

2

8

17

21

Argentina
BrazilBangladesh
China
India
Indonesia

5
4

9

11

21

21

7
7

11

11

16

22

30
17

Iran

7

31

3

4

6
2

5

4

14

15

10

8

19

14

8

20

24

8

29

11

12

17
24

32

9

15
42

19

67

1

0

4

1

9

2

30

19

21
14

29

32

56

Japan
Kazakhstan

7

Korea
Laos

7

Pakistan
Philippines
ThailandTurkeyVietnam
Algeria
AngolaEthiopia
Ghana
GuineaKenya
Mali
Nigeria
SenegalS.Africa
Sudan
Zaire
Australia
N.Zealand

7

11

7

10

8

8

73
9

18

11

14

15

14
5

8

3
10

7
12

1

4

2

7

11

9

6
4

5
6

1
2
20

3

22

6

7

3

8

13
4

2

1

5

1

4

2

5

3

12

5

14

6

3

2

6

8
2

10

3

-1

27

10

4

3
7

4

11

5
27

•••

11

9

8

2
11
14

72
21

25
16

6

11

3

12

10
19

4
8

13

5

2

20
16

18

10
22
5

4

45
6

9
12
21

61
9

3
5

29

41

49

3

8

23

4

30
6

19

4
16

2
3

15
27

14
64

3
13

22

36

12

6

26
28

87

Major Publications
Professor Mikhail I. Budyko
Books
Budyko, M.I. Evaporation at Natural Conditions. Hydrometeorological Publishing Office, 1949. (InRussian).
—. Heat Balance of Earth's Surface. Hydrometeorological Publishing Office, 1956. (Translated into
Japanese and English).
—. ed. World Atlas of Heat Balance. Hydrometeorological Publishing Office, 1963.
—. Climate and Life. Hydrometeorological Publishing Office, 1971. (Translated into Japanese andEnglish).
—. Changes in Climate. Hydrometeorological Publishing Office, 1974. (Translated into Japanese).
Budyko,M.1.Climate—ItsPast and Future. HydrometeorologicalPublishing Office, 1980. (Translated
into Japanese and English).
— . Evolution of Biosphere. HydrometeorologicalPublishing Office, 1984. (Translated into Japanese).
Budyko, M.I., A.B. Ronov and A.L. Yansin. History of Atmosphere. Hydrometeorological Publishing
Office, 1985. (Translated into Japanese and English).
Budyko, M.I., G.S. Golitsin and Y. L. lzrael. Global Climatic Catastrophe, 1986. (Translated into
Japanese).
Budyko, M.I., I. I. Borzenkova, E.K. Byutner, et al. Anthropogenic Changes in Climate.
HydrometeorologicalPublishing Office, 1987.
—. Stream of Time. Science Publishing Office, 1990.

Articles (Original Papers)
Budyko, M.I. "Theory of the Intensityof Natural GeographicalProcesses." Problems of Geography, 15(1949), 25-45.
—. "The Heat Balance of the Earth." In Climatic Change. Ed. J. Gribbin. Cambridge Univ. Press, 1978,
85-111.
—. "Theoretical Study of Shelter-Belt Surrounding Arable Lands." In Problems ofHydrometeorological Effects of Shelter-Belt of Arable Lands, 1950,69-84.
Budyko, M.I. and O.A. Drozdov. "Water Cycle on Limited Land Area." In Problem ofHydrometeorological Effects of Shelter-Belt Surrounded Arable Land, 1950,14-23.
Budyko, M.I. "Effects of Land Improvement on Potential Evaporation." Izv. AN-SSSR, ser.
Geography, No. 1 (1951), 16-35.
—. "Law of the Water Cycle in the Atmosphere." Izv. AN-SSSR; ser. Geography, No. 4 (1953),
167-170.
— . "Temperature of Active Surfaces and Its Bioclimatic Significance." In Modern Problems of the
Atmospheric Surface Layer, 1958,201-211.
—. "Heat Balance of Living Things." Izv. AN-SSSR, seraGeography, No. 1(1959), 29-35.
Budyko, M.I. and G.V Tsitsenko. "Climatic Factors Affecting the Thermal Sensitivity of Human
Beings." Izv. AN-SSSR, ser. Geography, No. 3 (1960), 3-11.
Budyko, M.I. "Thermal Zonality of the Earth." Met. and Hydrology, No. 11 (1961), 7-14.
Budyko, M.I. and L.I. Zubenok. "Determination of Evaporation from Land Surfaces." Izv. AN-SSSR,
ser. Geography, No. 6 (1961), 3-17.
Budyko, M.I. "Several Methods Affecting Climate." Met. and Hydrology,No. 2 (1962)/a, 3-8.
—. "Polar Ice and Climate." Izv. AN-SSSR, ser. Geography, No. 6 (1962)/b, 3-10.
— . "Theoretical Study of the Influence of Climatic Factors on Photosynthesis." DAN SSSR,No. 2,158

88

(1964), 331-337.
— . "Cause of Animal Extinction during the Mesozoic Era." Izv. AN-SSSR, ser. Geography, No. 2(1967), 28-36.
Budyko, M.I. and Z.I. Pivovarova. "Effects of Volcanic Eruption on Solar Radiation on Earth's
Surface." Met. and Hydrology, No. 10 (1967), 3-7.
Budyko, M.I. "Origin of the Glacial Period." Met. and Hydrology, No. 11 (1968), 3-12.
Budyko, M.I. and N.A. Efimova. "Solar Energy Use of Natural Vegetation in the USSR Territory." J.
Botany, No. 10,23 (1968), 1384-1389.
Budyko, M.I. and M.A. Vasishcheva. "Influence of Astrological Factors of the Glacial Age during the
Quaternary Period." Met. and Hydrology, No. 6 (1971), 37-47.
Budyko, M.I. and K.Y. Vinnikov. "Climatic Changes at Present." Met. and Hydrology. No. 9 (1973),
3-13.
Budyko, M.I. "Global Warming of Climate." Met. and Hydrology, No. 7 (1976), 16-26.
— . "Study of Present Climatic Changes." Met. and Hydrology, No. 11 (1977), 42-57.
Budyko, M.I., et al. "Present Climatic Changes." Izv. AN-SSSR, ser. Geography, No. 8 (1978), 5-14.
Budyko, M.I. "Semiempirical Model of the Thermal Condition of the Atmosphere and Real Climate."
Met. and Hydrology, No. 4 (1979), 5-17.
Budyko, M.I. and A.B. Ronov. "Evolution of the Atmosphere during the Phanerozoic." Geochemistry,
No. 5 (1979), 643-653.
Budyko, M.I. "Changes in Atmospheric Thermal Conditions during the Phanerozoic." Met. andHydrology, No. 10 (1981), 5-10.
— . "Effects of Carbon Dioxide on Climate." Met. and Hydrology, No. 2 (1981), 5-17.
Budyko, M.I., et al. "Anthropogenic Climatic Changes." Met. and Hydrology, No. 8 (1981), 5-11.
Budyko, M.I. "Some Problems of Anthropogenic Global Climate Changes." Met. and Hydrology, No.
9 (1983), 14-26.
Budyko, M.I., K.Y. Vinnikov and N.A. Efimova. "Relationships between Air Temperature andPrecipitation and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration." Met. and Hydrology, No. 4 (1983),
5-13.
Budyko, M.I. and K.Y. Vinnikov. "Detection of Anthropogenic Changes in the Global Climate." Met.
and Hydrology, No. 9 (1983), 14-26.
Budyko, M.I. "Climatic Catastrophe." Nature (Priroda), No. 6 (1985), 30-38.

89

Profile
Mr. David
Chairmanof the Earth

IslandR. Brower

Institute

Education and Academic and Professional Activities
1912
Born in July in the United States.
1929-1931 Attended the University of California.
1933
Joined the Sierra Club.
1935-1938 Worked in Yosemite National Park (as publicity manager for two of these years).
1941-1952 Editor, University of California Press.
1952-1969 First Executive Director, Sierra Club.
1956
National Parks Association Award.
1967
Paul Bartsch Award, Audubon Naturalist Society.
1967
Honorary Degree, Hobart and William Smith Colleges.
1969
Established Friends of the Earth.
1970
Brooklyn College Library Association Award.
1973
Honorary Degree, University of San Francisco; University of Maryland.
1977
Honorary Degree, Colorado College.
1979
Golden Ark Award, Prince of the Netherlands.
1982
Founded the Earth Island Institute.
1984
Honorary Degree, New School for Social Research.
1985
Honorary Degree, Sierra Nevada College.
1987
Strong Oak Award, New Renaissance Center.
1994
Robert Marshall Award, Wilderness Society.
1995
Honorary Degree, Lincoln Law School.
2000
Deceased, November 5.

In the UnitedStateswidespread,

Mr. Brower

generations.
sity, which

Mr. Brower devised
can never be restored

nal use of natural
endangered,damaged.

in the 1930s, whenresolved

resources

Basedon CPR,of environmental

issuesthe environment

in its naturala three-foldmethod of guarding
once lost. His method is known

throughand undiscovered

awarenessto help preserve

Conservation;

species;Mr. Brower

had yet to become

nature and biologicaldiveras CPR. "C" is for the ratio-"P" is for the Preservationand "R" is for the Restoration
has developed

originalstate for futureof threatened,of what humankind

environmental

education

has
meth-

ods and a code of ethics.
Mr. Browersocialscientificlicizethe different

90

conducted

methods
facetsa wideinto

environmental

problems

using

many

books

and produced

films, using

the media

to pub-of environmental

issuesand appeal

to the public.

and wrote

range

of research

He also lobbiedinCongress for his causes. Through these types of independent environmental education campaigns, Mr. Brower helped halt proposed dam construction in the Grand Canyon and contributed to the establishment of national parks and seashores.
Mr. Brower's environmental conservation activities also extended to the Earth as awhole planet. He fostered the concept of choosing places important in terms of biologicaldiversity, ecosystems or geology, and designating them international legacies. This concept
was realized in the establishment of UNESCO's system of World Heritage sites.
Between 1952 and 1969, Mr. Brower served as the first executive director of the Sierra
Club, helping it grow into a major environmental organization.In 1969,he establishedFriendsof the Earth, and in 1982 he founded the Earth Island Institute. These organizations are helping to protect nature, save species threatened by extinction,and fight pollution by linking environmental issues with global social and political issues. Through these organizations' efforts
to show how the environment is involved with nuclear threats, overpopulation, poverty andwar, Mr. Brower played a vital role in the international environmental movement.

91

EssayComments
on the Draft

YosemiteDavid

Valley Plan

R. Brower

July 2000

Right now, the National Park Service (NPS), which has heretofore cherished Yosemite, seems
intent on converting this temple into a profit center, with pricey hotels, scant camping, few
modest accommodations, wider roads to field bigger diesel buses, ecological roadside mayhem, atmospheric damage statewide, people who want to celebrate Yosemite Valley required
to tie their cars outside, in various still unspoiled places, soon to be paved. All to exploit what
you can do when you have two or three hundred million dollars to spend instead of the discipline former NPS Director Newton Drury enjoyed when he said, "We have no money, we cando no harm." The NPS is trying to do too much, too fast, in Yosemite, forgetting that protecting the Park, not Yosemite Park Service revenues, is the most important thing here. It's time
the NPS remembered what Yosemite is all about.
Anyone who has been visiting Yosemite for almost 82 years is likely to brag about it,
and I do incessantly. I started going to Yosemite in 1918. There were 37,000 visitors that year
and I celebrated my sixth birthday camped alongside the railroad that was helping construct analien dam in Yosemite's Hetch Hetchy Valley. Restoring this lost treasure should be an ongoing part of the Park Service agenda.
Unbeknownst even to many in the Park Service, Yosemite was the first national park—
set aside eight years before Yellowstone—and its mission clearly stated a year later by noneother than Frederick Law Olmsted. After he had done his bit for Central Park, Olmsted cameout to California and the Fremont Estate to recover and to advise California how to take careof the best of its nature, including Yosemite. Mountains can use a voice, and Frederick Law
Olmsted was one of the first to try to speak for them.
He proposed

the rights

for nature"The first requirement
the narrowest

in the national

is to preserve

limits the necessary"Structures

shouldthe sacrificeof anything

the convenience,

92

implicit

not detract

sceneryaccommodationfrom the dignitythat should

bad taste,

the naturalpark idea.
withinof visitors.
of the scene . In preventing

be of the slightest

playfulness,and restrict

carelessness,value to visitors
or wanton

destruc-totivenessof presentof uncountedThus,

in 1864,

visitors,

millions

would

probablyto the selfishness

did an idea born on one coast reachyield

in each case the interestof a few."

another.

Maybe Olmsted can help all of us, including the NPS, remember what the national park idea,
perhaps America's best, is all about. It was probably not just to let people who can afford the
Ahwahnee or Yosemite Lodge to luxuriate there, but a place to celebrate a bit of equity in a
magical place meant to be shared with the current brief tenants of the Earth; but most importantly, held in trust for the "uncounted millions" not yet born. The greatest luxury in Yosemitecomes from what the Valley has to say, not just from its structures. If Old Dave Brower wants
to go slumming at the Ahwahnee, OK. But maybe his kids and friends would rather camp, theway he used to.
I am deeply concerned these days about Yosemite. As I am old fashioned enough tobelieve that national parks were not set aside to create profit centers for concessionaires or to
pad NPS construction budgets for park officials to short-change the future. Large crowds areseasonal, but new roads, hotels and parking lots despoil the park year-round.
I saw the trouble begin with Mission '66, when then-NPS director, Connie Wirth went
to the American Automobile Association,not to conservationists,for advice. What he let happen to Yosemite in the controversy over re-routing the Tioga Road was a disaster the Sierra
Club let happen by not opposing it strongly enough. NPS people should have been jailed forwhat they destroyed at Tenaya Lake, just as I would now urge long sentences for engineers
who molest roads until they are big enough to accommodate big diesel buses. Left alone, theywould get rid of Yosemite's autumn color with two-stroke leaf blowers.
In the 1950s, my attempt to save Yosemitefrom what Ansel Adams described as NPS
vandalism at Tioga was enthusiastic enough to bring Horace Albright, second director of the
NPS, to San Francisco to try to get me fired as executive director of the Sierra Club. He was
not successful, but neither was I successful in stopping the NPS demolition of Tenaya's granite domes. I have had more than one Park Ranger recently lament to me how right we were tohave opposed that project and how our alternative would have been better all around. We haveseen this pattern repeated in the Merced River Canyon, where Judge Ishii confirmed the righteousness of our protest against illegal NPS vandalism of the river, but mostly too late. When I
see the war-zone that used to be the Merced River Gorge in Yosemite, I am furious that thecriminals that pushed this project through in violation of NEPA and the Wild and Scenic Rivers
Act are allowedto continue their shoddyplanning in the rest of the park rather that taking sometime out to rethink (in jail preferably).
On the contrary,no one is taking time out and no one is rethinking (and none of the lawbreakers are in jail, or even repentant). The Merced River Plan was rushed through using old
wildlife data (the wildlife situation may have changed a bit since one bank of the river was
paved by NPS). The River Plan was not meant to be a formality; it was intended to be the biological foundation of planning efforts for the entire valley.Judge Ishii's statements in the courtroom indicate that he would concur.If NPS is not violating the letter of his ruling, releasing the93Draft ValleyPlan before the River Plan was finalized certainly violates the spirit of Ishii's callfor sound planning. I call on the NPS to submit a complete plan for the Merced River before
asking us to comment on a Draft ValleyPlan. NPS seems to be drunk on appropriationsmoney,hell-bent on another "Tioga Hangover." This time I don't have another 40 years to wait for the
NPS to realize its mistake. It's time to wake up, and for God's sake, no more construction on
the river between the 120 Junction and the Valley!
This brings us to the next major disaster contained in the Alternatives of the Valley
Plan. Why did that road need to be widened (other than to spend some of the Congressionalcash)? In a private statement to me in a meeting last year, Regional NPS Director John
Reynolds said that the road had to be widened because buses were a necessary piece ofYosemite's transportation future. He repeated this once to the press, but has been denying itever since. The emphasis on diesel buses in the Draft YVP force me to infer that he was telling
the truth the first time. Withthe EPAin California and Washington,D.C., both currently cracking down on diesel as a carcinogen and a massive air pollution problem, it is unconscionable
for NPS to advocate for a dramatic increase in diesel traffic in YosemiteValley.Yosemitegets
more pollution than it needs already from the Central Valley without creating a new toxic
menace locally. Until clean-fuel buses can make the grade, we are stuck with diesel , which is
far dirtier than modern cars (evenper passenger-mile!).The Central Valleyis beginning to lookto rail as a solution to its air problems, and I strongly encourage the NPS to climb aboard thisstatewide effort, which can be part of the solution for Yosemite as well (see addendum formore).
Finally, let's put the brakes on any new parking lots! Parking is currently sited in areas
long-sincedeveloped, while the Draft YVP suggests that we pave over huge lots in unspoiled
areas of the park so diesel buses can service expanded hotels in the valley on widened roads(NPS may want to see the additional facts I have discovered on toxic leaching from newasphalt before it paves one more square inch of the park. See addendum). All of the alternatives are all based on the assumption that it is inevitable that we will continue to try to pack as
many people into the park as possible at any given time. Congestion problems are relatively
easy to solve as Ansel Adams said; "When the theater's full, they don't sell lap-space ."National Parks were created to be a natural haven from the world of mindless development andendless growth.Placing no limit on the numbers of current visitors that can visit the park at one
time is a violation of the Organic Act and a breach of our contract with future generations. Thismay be easy to miss with so much Fee-Demo money pouring into Yosemite,but it is your job
as the appointed guardians of Yosemite not to miss it.
So skip the hotel expansion, replace lost camping instead, and if you want parking lots,
limit them to impacted non-riparian areas where other structures are being removed (not atCamp 6 or Taft Toe). As for Restoring Yosemite, I'm glad the Park Services is at least awareof the concept, but I don't see much restoration in the plan that isn't undone by destruction
elsewhere.That's not restoration; it's called mitigation, as your highway building friends cantell you. If you widen Southside Drive and pull out other roads, there is no net ecological gain,
especially if the other roads are not actually removed. Bruce Babbitt and others have said thatthe future of the parks is in restoration. I heartily agree and will begin applaudingthe moment94

that NPS finishes
like the Draft

using this kind of language

Yosemite

Valleyas green-wash

for half-baked

development

plans

Plan.

95

Lecture

CPR

for BusinessDavid

It is my distinct
Asahi

honor

and pleasure

Glass Foundation's

R. Brower

to standBlue Planet

and the Planet

beforePrize. I applaud

dom and precociousness

it took to create the world's

ronmental

work.

the Foundationronmental

science

UnlikeI thank

and the global

Dr. Budyko,

much more to be placed
to the scientifican attemptthan I could

understanding

ever write

accessible

to the public.

far beyond

my means.

today

for allowing

myself,

I thank

to showcase

for the environment.

for youand even greatera greatthat my efforts

the scientists

whom

this
some

I speakhonor.

from greatand designed

rightly

today

merelythemselvesinof others

more

be standing

acrossto bring

scientists

books

will be more

I have comethaton adding

far greater

the geniusor alarm,that present

so I am honoredor published

who should

problems.

I have not focused

makeof the best thinking

opportunities

of envi-

I employed

My lecture

not to offend

to the world

borrowed

could

for the wisenvi-

scientist,

I have editedof theprize recognizingof environmental

In my career,

but have merely

all of these people

me to receive

working

to have beenof their work.

hopingSimilarly,

awareness

as a recipient

Glass Foundation

contribution

to raisecompany.

of the world,awareness

attempting

great threatsin history.

claim

in such esteemed

to raise public

the Asahi

today

most prestigious

for their profoundmovement

I cannotthis audiencefor did workin my placeof thesame,in 60 years
awareness

to us at this uniqueofto themomentRaising Awareness of the Environmental Impact of Economic Activity
Since April, I have paid particular attention to all the worrying going on in the U.S. media
about the precarious "bubble economy" in Japan. We now have our own economic problems
to worry about, but I would like to borrow the idea of a "bubble economy." If a bubble economy results from losing track of the real value of our capital, I suggest that we are all part of alarger global bubble economy.I speak of the global industrial bubble economy that has so mismanaged the natural capital of the earth's ecosystems. Today,for the duration of this lecture, I
ask you to consider that the recent economic downturn could be an amazing opportunity tomove beyond this global industrial bubble economy. I am betting that the strength of theJapanese spirit will be an important part of this transition. This is an opportunity for Japan tocontinue its tradition of industrial trailblazing by leading the world toward a new economy thatplaces proper value on the natural world and the human ecosystems within it.
My first visit to your beautiful country was in 1976when the U.S. Information Agency
asked me to talk in seven cities—from Fukuoka to Sapporo. I have been back six times sincethen, most recently in 1994 for Nagaragawa Day where I joined six thousand Japanese whowanted to keep their last wild river as wild as possible. Now it is my greatest honor to returnto Tokyo to receive the Blue Planet Prize.

96Each time I come to Japan, I am first aware of the many differences between the UnitedStates and Japan, but then I begin to notice one unfortunate similarity. David Suzuki, aJapanese-Canadian,says that the great Harvard Universitybiologist, E. 0. Wilson, when asked
how many human beings the world could sustainably support, replied: "If they have theappetite for resources of the United States and Japan, two hundred million."
Our two countries alone have about twice Dr. Wilson's sustainable population figure
and the other five billion people want to live as we do. But is this truly possible? In the last 50
years the United States, alone, has used up more resources than all the rest of the world in all
previous history. Most Americans are pretty happy about this, but no one else in the world is,and they have been showing their displeasure recently.
Two more statistics begin to expose the industrial bubble economy for the precarious
illusion that it is. Author Paul Hawken examined global population and consumption trends
and calculated that if the world, especially the industrialized world, wants to keep up its present pace, it will have to produce as much food in the next 40 years as the entire world has produced in the last eight-thousand years.
And a second statistic. A group of scientists led by Dr. Robert Constanza of the
University of Maryland last year calculated that the world receives at least US$33 trillion dollars annuallyin free services from the earth's ecosystems,while the estimated world GNP hovers around US$20 trillion. Ecosystems services, like the pollination of our food crops by wild
insects, would affect our calculation of the world GNP only if they stopped being free. These
services stop being free if the key speciesthat supportthe ecosystems go extinct.Then we must
pay to replicate this service by other means. This is a real and present danger. According to a
recent survey,it is the professional opinion of seven out of 10 U.S. biologists that human disturbance of ecosystems is now causing the fastest mass extinction of species in the earth's history.
Our global bubble economy becomes more precarious daily even as our industrial
economies grow. Yetfew people question economic growth. In fact, we are unhappy with ourpoliticians if the economy does not grow every year. If this kind of unchecked growth occurs
in an individual, we call it cancer. In our economies we call it progress. At what cost thisprogress? In a book we put together 20 years ago at Friends of the Earth, Progress as if Survival
Mattered, we posed the twin questions: What kinds of growth can we no longer afford? And,
what kinds of growth must we have? After all, growth does not have to be a bad thing; Friendsof the Earth now has branches in 58 countries around the world, including Friends of the EarthJapan.
Is the economic growth that we so prize in our countries a kind of growth we can nolonger afford?The answer can be yes and it can be no. The various responses we have seen to
the Kyoto Protocol showcase this dilemma. Some countries have stressed returning to old
nuclear and hydroelectrictechnologies, while others are investing in new, cleaner technologies
like solar and hydrogen power.In the United States , we seem to be doing neither, and in Japan
we see both. Japan is both the acknowledged world leader in solar technology and a major
developer of nuclear and hydroelectricfacilities with 20 new nuclear reactors proposed and 11
new hydroelectric dams under construction.Although these dams and reactors may help Japan

97

comply with the Kyoto Protocol far sooner than the United States , they are not a sustainablesource of economic growth. Still, I acknowledge business and government in Japan for taking
bold initial steps with their solar-roof program, their new product take-back laws, and theirsubsidies for electric vehicles. I hope they will continue to show their American counterparts
what it takes to truly make your nation a world leader.
In his book The Ecology of Commerce, Paul Hawken argues that with the scale of theenvironmental problems being what they are, only businesses are powerful enough to effect anenvironmental turnaround. The time for that turnaround is now. The current global economic
downturn can be seen as an opportunity to reevaluate the way we do business. I once said, only
half-joking, to Mikhail Gorbachev: "We are watching Russia very closely, and if they canmake democracy work, the United States is going to try it." Similarly, we have never reallytried capitalism. How can we have capitalism when all the capital is not on the balance sheet?
All of our economic figures and incentives change when we calculate in that US$33 trillion
worth of services that the world's economy receives annually from natural ecosystems.
The Next Industrial Revolution: Redefining Capitalism for Future Generations
This year, Paul Hawken has written a book with Amory and Hunter Lovins that shows uscommerce that actually accounts for this natural capital. They call it Natural Capitalism: The
Next Industrial Revolution.
The Next Industrial Revolution is already underway and is based on extracting wisdom
and information from nature rather than raw materials. We have already heard that we areentering the Information Age with the advent of ever-smaller silicon microchip technology.
There are many opportunities for improvement, even in these advanced designs; for example,
the production of a single microprocessor in your computer generates 8000 pounds of hazardous waste water.
If the bad news is that even our most ingenious designs have failed to consider the welfare of the planet and our future on it, the good news is that we did not design the planet or its
inhabitants. Examples of designs for technologies that do not imperil future generations are all
around us and even within us. The life-friendly designs I speak of are the designs of life itself.
The more we begin to design and refine our own information-driven technologies, the more wewill recognize the beauty and brilliance of evolution's designs. After all, anything that didn't
work got recalled by the Manufacturer.
In nature, information is king, but the original Information Age ran on DNA, not silicon,
and created technologies we still haven't figured out. The story of the abalone provides anexample.
Ceramics, once relegated to the dinner table, are now used in high-tech applications
from car engines to electronics. Problems arise because of the tendency of ceramics to shattei
under pressure. Abalone produces a far superior technology. Its shatterproof shell requires nofiring in kilns or treatment with harsh chemicals. The shell is made at sea water temperatureand is made of protein and the minerals suspended in sea water. The secret is in the unique
DNA sequences the abalone possesses, which code for specific sequences of proteins that inturn attract ions in the water to specific sites on the protein matrix. Spongy layers of protein

98alternatewith hard mineral

be shatterproof.

Scientists

layersto form

at the University

apply

the principles

of abalone

shellfriendly,

shatterproof

ceramic.

We begin

Next Industrial
rials,

Revolution:and substituteplanet.
vexingbrillianceof Washington

and cohesion

hardenergy-efficient,life-

to see some of the principles

of manufacturing

for thelocal materials,

temperaturesdesignabout

to buildown

life-friendly

for energy

and costly

in the laboratory

at worktoare now

and goodcame,resilience

theirconstruction

use common,

information

All of this design

a hard shell with enoughtryingtoand mate-resources.

of our prehistoricwilderness

From the wilderness
we came and it is there again we must look for answers to our mostquestions.
"The wilderness,"
Nancy Newhall once wrote, "holds answers to more ques-

tions than we yet know

how to ask."

CPR for the Earth: Toward the. Restorative Economy
One of those questions we have only just learned to ask is how we design our commerce towork for the planet, not against it. For many years, I have asked audiences all over the UnitedStates to devote a year of their life to working for the earth. One year of CPR for the earth. CPR
most commonly stands for cardiopulmonary resuscitation, an emergency medical procedure
to restart a patient's heart and lungs when they have stopped. In this case, the patient is theearth. CPR means reviving the patient through Conservation,Preservation, and Restoration. In
every audience, though I get a positive response to this idea, most people, most of the time are
not doing CPR for the earth, they are simply doing business. In the Restorative Economy,
CPR for the earth happens in the course of doing business.
"C" stands for conservation: we must use fewer natural resources and get far moreproductivity out of what we use. Japan has been a world leader in energy efficiency, about
twice as efficient as the United States, and together we can do even more. U.S. architect
William McDonough observes that in natural systems "waste equals food." The concept ofwaste does not exist. Smart companies are realizing that they have been "wasting their waste"by treating it as a liability to be hauled away or burned when it could be a resource-food forsome organic or industrial process. Pollution is inefficiency: raw materials paid for and thensquandered. Organic waste can be sold as soil or animal feed. Inorganics can be placed inclosed-loop systemsthat feed them back into the production process. Profit incentives are thus
created by designing products and using raw materials that reenter the food chain productively, into nature or back into the factory. A Swiss textile factory redesigned by William
McDonough to use no harmful chemicals baffled local environmental inspectors by actually
purifying the water that passed through the plant. Their next project is to have no water passin or out of the plant.
"P" is for preservation: if we wish to extract the design wisdom and ecosystem services
from the natural world, we must preserve intact ecosystems. Ecosystems that remain intact
provide the world's best, cheapest water purification, flood control, pest control, crop pollination, climate regulation, soil construction, water storage and many other services. New York
City recently decided that the cheapest way to purify its water was to purchase and preserve
the watershed in the Adirondack Mountains that was the source of its drinking water. Manyother U.S. cities are now preserving ecosystems to purify water because it is millions of dol-99

lars cheaper than buildingwater treatment facilities. By contrast, in Thailand,deforestation has
contaminated rivers and left Bangkok so dependent on ground water extraction that the city issinking and is now below sea level.
If we learn to respect the wilderness too late, we will find that by the time we havelearned how to ask the questions, the piece of wilderness that held the answer will be gone. For
example, only recently have we asked, "Why do we die of cancer and other diseases,but many
species of sharks never get tumors and seem resistant to most infections?" One doctor asked
this question and discovered a powerful new antibiotic in the dogfish shark. Yet over-fishinghas led to a worldwide decline of sharks, which are often killed only for their trademark fin.
The invaluableinformation of the world is stored in the bank of its genetic and species diversity, and with 40-100 species disappearing every day, we will soon be bankrupt.
"R" is for restoration: restoration can be profitable. Just ask your dentist or doctor. We
need more people who will be like doctors for the earth, healing the body of the earth and being
paid very well for it. Restorative businesses move beyond sustainability—merely"doing noharm"—andmake a gift to future generations by ensuring that they are left with more natural
beauty and resources than we ourselves had. Doing such meaningful work will also lift thespirit of people employed in healing the earth.
Making our economy restorative to both people and the planet is an enormous redesign
project that has already begun in many places. In the United States, two Vermont designers,
Nancy and John Todd, have found a way to restore natural capital by replacing standard waste
water treatment facilities with a series of biodiverse, interrelated ecosystems they call the`Living Machine.' A Living Machine is composed of plants, animals, insects, and microbesthat work together to provide all the purification of chlorine-based, energy-intensive treatment, for a fraction of the cost, in a facility so beautiful that you could mistake it for a greenhouse.
In impoverished areas of U.S. cities from New York to San Francisco, community gardeners have reclaimed abandoned urban land to provide food, income and a sense of community.
Simultaneously, on two distant continents, visionary scientists and community members in Gaviotas, Colombia, and Auroville, India, are showing us how to live lives of extraordinary creativity and fulfillmentby taking on the challenge of restoration on the planet. Eachvillage began on a desolate, infertile landscape that nobody wanted. Now, in Gaviotas and
Auroville, dense forests and diversebiota have been restored and people have reinhabited theland in a way that sustains their newfound natural riches.
Restorative

Business

Practices

and The Natural

The industrial leaders of the Restorative
the global environmental

movement,

EconomyStep
are emerging

which has historicallyas well to take their place inbeen dominated

est NG0s. As an alleged leader, or even father, of the modern environmental

by public-intermovement,

I feelit is quite safe to pass the baton to visionary businesspeople
like Ray Anderson, CEO at
Interface, Inc., and Takashi Kiuchi, managing director at Mitsubishi Electric Corporation.
It is easy to grow discouraged

100

in my work, but having the opportunity

to serve on Ray

Anderson's advisory team has been my most uplifting experience. Mr. Anderson's Interface
Corporation is a small company compared to Mitsubishi Electric, having done US$1.3 billion
last year in sales, but there is nothing small about the company's mission to "become the firstname in industrial ecology, a corporation that cherishes nature and restores the environment."
Interface is a leader in the global carpet and textiles business doing business in more than 110
countries around the world. They have reported record quarterly earnings consistently since
they began redesigning their operations in 1994. But record earnings are not enough forInterface; it is now their goal to generate profits only in ways that do not steal from future generations.
Ray Anderson did not acquire his well-developed ecological conscience climbing
mountains or floating down rivers as I did. He grew Interface for 21 years into an industrial
leader, but in 1994, while the business was in transition, Ray Anderson realized that his company had no long-term vision. Then, by some divine fortune, he happened to read The Ecology
of Commerce and he became aware for the first time of the full responsibilities involved not
only in being a CEO, but most importantly, the responsibilities of being the grandfather of fiveyoung children.
Ray Anderson has since embarked on a quest to run Interface in a manner consistent
with the future he wants for his grandchildren and their children. Over several years, Interface
reduced waste, cut energy use, cut pollution and expensive toxic materials, and redesigned the
manufacturing processes to the point where they experienced a growth in sales from US$800
million to US$1 billion with no increase in net resource use. This may be as Ray Anderson
says, "the first US$200 million of sustainable business." If we can, in this way, decouple economic growth from the destruction of the biosphere, this may yet be a kind of growth we canstill afford.
Interface has institutionalized this concern for the future by introducing all its employees to the precepts of The Natural Step, a scientific consensus on what it takes to create a sustainable society. The consensus began with 30 scientists in Sweden and has spread to scientists
throughout Europe, the United States and several other countries. There are four natural lawsthat all these scientists agree that human activities must abide by. First, substances in the earth's
crust must not systematically increase in nature; this includes all metals, minerals and fossil
fuels. Second, man-made materials like synthetic plastics and PCBs cannot be produced at afaster rate than they can be broken down and integrated back into nature. Third, the productivity and biodiversity of nature cannot be systematically reduced. Fourth, human needs must
be met by a fair and efficient use of resources because, in the long run, social inequities are notsustainable.
At first, these principles may sound overly restrictive, until we think of them not as abarrier, but as a compass by which to navigate. Interface and many other leading companies
use The Natural Step framework to point all their employees in a uniform direction, without
mandating the specific technologies or business practices to be used. Natural Step companies
find that this leads to many new innovations.
In Japan, Takashi Kiuchi, managing director at Mitsubishi Electric, has also embraced
The Natural Step as a tool to guide Mitsubishi Electric into the 21st Century. Takashi Kiuchi

101

and other forward-thinking businesspeople know that the limits of the earth are ultimately thelimits of business. Some of the most highly advanced technologies in the world, the spider's
web (five times stronger than steel by weight), the mussel's glue (works under water in thepounding surf), and the human brain, were created using the constraints of The Natural Step.
Maybe it's time our engineers and businesspeople used them too.
At Interface, cost-cutting ideas for reducing pollution and waste now come from people in all sectors of the company.Nowhere is this more noticeable than with their top productdesigner. His newest line of Interface flooring products is manufactured using almost fivetimes fewer resources per unit than standard carpet, yet outperforms all their other carpet lines.
The product is assembled on solar-poweredlooms, is designed to be easily recycled, and is freeof any potentially harmful chemicals. Even more unusual, many Interface products can only
be leased—they are never bought. Interface services the leased carpets and exchanges any
worn sections for new carpet. The worn carpet returns to Interface to be recycled for use in a
new Interface product.
Providing services through leasing rather than selling products allowsthe manufacturer
to spend less on raw materials and does not burden the consumer with "stuff" he has no use forbeyond the service it provides. Why own carpet when you can lease it at less cost to you andto the earth? What other products can we change into services?
At Mitsubishi Electric, Takashi Kiuchi has combined The Natural Step with the ideathat business must not only stop destroying rainforests but also learn how to operate more likethe rainforest. His ideas are explained in his new book TheNew Economy: Business Lessons
from the Rain Forest.
For example, the rainforest has some of the poorest soils in the world, yet is one of themost productive ecosystems. This is accomplished by application of the principle that "waste
equals food." The nutrients do not build up in the soil because they are always becoming foodfor other organisms. Takashi Kiuchi has taken this lesson from the rainforest and applied it at
Mitsubishi Electric in the form of 60 drop-off stations now being built to collect broken electronics (Mitsubishi and all other brands) from consumers.The broken products, once destinedfor the garbage, have been redefined as food, both as a source of raw materials to build new
products and as a source of intellectual, design-food to guide the creation of more durable andrecyclable Mitsubishi products. This is ecology, this is smart business.
The Evolutionof Ecologically

The role of environmental

NGOs in the New Economy

have a vital role in informingfrom the cutting-edge

Sound Business—Ourconsumers

Role in the Restorative

Economywill change, but they will continue toand companies.

Many companies

approach taken by Interface, Mitsubishi

are still very far

Electric and others. When com-panies fully grasp and incorporate the wisdom of ecology into their business practices, they
will not only find that vigilant NGOs are now their allies, but that they have many new opportunities for profit.
NGOs will also have new roles teaming

up with businesses

to refocus our societiesonthe true source of human fulfillment.
If we are to give up our wasteful and consumptive

102

lifestyles,

what will fill the void? If I

asked any one of you what the single most important thing in your life is, I dare to guess thatmost of you would talk about your friends and family—thepeople with whom we share theintimate relationships that are the foundation of our joy and fulfillment in life. Why not devote
our energies to this thing that makes us most happy? If we must boast, let it be about thegrowth of real and heartfelt relationships rather than about abstract economic goals. As wemove into the Restorative Economy, our heartfelt goals and economic goals can become one
and the same.
Though I have been involved in many important environmental successes in my life, thejoy those successesbrought me cannot compare with the fulfillment I have experienced frommy friends, my children, my grandchildren, and my dear wife of 55 years. Here is a kind ofgrowth that we must have—the growth of love and relationships.This is growth that inherently
increases the beauty of all those involved.And upon consultingmy 86 years of experience,The
Natural Step and other natural laws of life on earth, I foresee no limits to this kind of human
growth.
The global threat that environmental problems represent is an opportunity for us towork together and move beyond the old prejudices. Regardless of class, race, nationality, age
and sex, we are all together on the Spaceship Earth on which there are no connecting flights,
no stops, no finite destinations and no passengers—only crew.
Even if we come together to solve our global problems, we will not always agree on
everything.We must foster the ability to disagree and to share our disparate views without theneed to dominate and disrespect those who dissent. For the sake of innovation and diversity,
we need disagreement; but for the sake of cooperation and stability, we need to have respect
for one another.
Like an ecosystem developing from a grassland to a rainforest, our society must growin its internal complexity and interdependence. In the rainforest, cooperation is more important than competition, which rules in less complex ecosystems. The dead-end alternative is tokeep putting more resources into the primitive social structure of domination, hierarchy, andexploitation that is currently so widespread in our institutions.
To have CPR for business, the earth and the human spirit, we must also learn humility.
We are relative newcomersto creation. Must it end with us? Or as my friend Bernadette Cozart
once said, "Sometimes I think we must be the youngest species on the planet, because everything else seems to know what to do. It might just be that humans are here to learn—not toteach."
Even as we learn from nature, we must put faith in the human spirit. No country symbolizes this spirit better than Japan. Much innovation has been stimulated simply by the historic isolationand perpetual space constraints of being an island nation. I am hoping that Japan
will rediscoverits ecological conscience evenfaster than the United States, owing to the grandtraditions of Shinto and the cultural consciousness born of experiencing the limits of an islandhome—whetherit be Honshu or the Island of Mother Earth.
I also hold much hope for Japan's historical ability to shift out of tired industrial paradigms and make giant advances far before other industrial nations. The Total Quality
Management Revolution that Japan started so successfully can be seen as a first step into the103Next Industrial Revolution, one that calls for, as business strategist Gil Friend puts it, "morevalue, less stuff." More design intelligence, more information content, more quality-of-life
improvements, and less pollution, less resource use and less garbage.
Mitsubishi Electric is moving on from the Quality Revolution to increase the intelligence and value of their products still more by adding ecological information. They havemerged their environmental management program into their quality management program,recognizing that a product is not a quality product if it pollutes, disrupts or otherwise degrades
the ecosphere. The company is also conducting full environmental accounting, factoring thetrue cost to the earth and the cost to the future into their business decisions for the first time.
This is a process of business evolution. It is as if we are actually building new DNA
codes for more adaptive companies and products that can truly survive the realities of theearth's sensitivity to human disturbance. Businesses that do not commit to this process ofadaptation will eventually die off in the New Economy.
Paul Hawken once wrote, "It is not the environment that needs saving. Business needssaving." With most human fortunes so tied to business, the process of saving business fromundermining the natural basis for its existence is the process of saving the human race from itself. I ask you to join Takashi Kiuchi, Ray Anderson and like-minded leaders in rescuing
human society by imagining—then creating—the Restorative Economy that transforms business from the tool of our demise into the means of our survival and future prosperity. From thismoment forward, the work we do each day can be an act of creation and restoration that leaves
the world and its people more beautiful at the approach of night than it was at dawn.

104

Major Publications
Mr. David R. Brower
Books
Brower, David. For the Earth's Sake. Utah: Peregrine Smith Books, 1990.
— . Work in Progress. Utah: Peregrine Smith Books, 1991.
Brower, David and Steve Chapple. Let the Mountains Talk, Let the River Run. CA: Harper Collins West,
1995.
Brower, David. Manual of Ski Mountaineering. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1962.

Brower, David, ed. and designer. ThisIs theAmerican Earth, by Ansel Adams and Nancy Newhall. San
Francisco: Sierra Club, 1960.
— . Words of the Earth, by Cedric Wright. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1962.
— . These WeInherit: The Parklands of America, by Ansel Adams. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1962.
— . In WildnessIs the Preservation of the World,by Eliot Porter. San Francisco: Sierra Club.
— . The Place No One Knew: Glen Canyonon the Colorado, by Eliot Porter. San Francisco: Sierra Club,1963.
— . The Last Redwoods,by Philip Hyde and Francois Leydet. San Francisco: Sierra Club.
— . Ansel Adams: A Biography. Volume I: The Eloquent Light, by Nancy Hewhall. San Francisco:
Sierra Club.
— . Timeand the River Flowing: Grand Canyon, by Francois Leydet. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1964.
— . Gentle Wilderness:The Sierra Nevada, by John Muir and Richard Kauffman. San Francisco: Sierra
Club, 1968.
— . Not Man Apart: Photographs of the Big Sur Coast, with linesfrom Robinson Jeffers. San Francisco:
Sierra Club, 1965.
— . The WildCascades: Forgotten Parkland, by Harvy Manning. San Francisco: Sierra Club.
— . Everest: The West Ridge, by Thomas Hornbein. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1965.
— . SummerIsland, Penobscot Country, by Eliot Porter. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1963.
— . Navajo Wildlands:As Long as the Rivers Shall Run, by PhilipHyde and Stephen Jett. San Francisco:
Sierra Club, 1967.
— . Kauai and the Park Country of Hawaii, by Robert Wenkam. San Francisco: Sierra Club.
— . Glacier Bay: The Land and the Silence, by Dave Bohn. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1967.
— . Baja California and the Geography of Hope, by Eliot Porter and Joseph Wood Krutch. San
Francisco: Sierra Club, 1967.
— . Central Park Country: A Tune within Us, by Mireille Johnston. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1968.
—. Galapagos: The Flow of Wildness(Two Volumes)by Eliot Porter. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1968.
Brower, David, ed. Island in Time: The Point Reyes Peninsula, by Philip Hyde and Harold Gilliam. San
Francisco: Sierra Club, 1962.
— . The Peninsula's Story of the Olympic Country, by Don Moser. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1962.
— . John Muir's Studies in the Sierra, by William Colby. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1950.
—. Ramblings through the High Sierra, by Joseph LeConte . San Francisco: Sierra Club.
—. Francois Matthes and the Marks of Time, by Fritiof Fryxell. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1962.
— . John Muir and the Sierra Club, by Holway Jones. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1965.
—. On the Loose, by Terry and Renny Russell. San Francisco: Sierra Club, 1967.
— . Grand Canyon of the Living Colorado, by Ernie Braun. San Francisco: Sierra Club.
—. AlmostAncestors, by Theodora Kroeber and Robert Heizer. San Francisco: Sierra Club.
—. The Population Bomb, by Paul Ehrlich. San Francisco: Sierra Club.

105

—. The Sierra Club WildernessHandbook. San Francisco: Sierra Club.
—. Aldabra Alone, by Tony Beamish. San Francisco: Sierra Club.
—. Nature Next Door, by Robert C. Stebbins. San Francisco: Sierra Club.
—.Wilderness in a Changing World.Wilderness Conference Books.
—. Tomorrow's Wilderness. Wilderness Conference Books.
—.Wilderness: America's Living Heritage. Wilderness Conference Books.
—. The Meaning of Wildernessto Science. Wilderness Conference Books.
—. Wildernessand Recreation. Wilderness Conference Books.
—. Voicesfor the Wilderness.Wilderness Conference Books.
—. A Climber's Guide to YosemiteValley.Wilderness Exploration Guides.
— . A Climber's Guide to the High Sierra. Wilderness Exploration Guides.
— . A Climber's Guide to the Teton Range. Wilderness Exploration Guides.
— . A Climber's Guide to Glacier National Park. Wilderness Exploration Guides.
— . Belaying the Leader: An Omnibus on ClimbingSafety.Wilderness Exploration Guides.
— . Star's Guide to the John Muir Trail. Wilderness Exploration Guides.
— . The Mammoth Lakes. Wilderness Exploration Guides.
— . Deepest Valley.Wilderness Exploration Guides.
— . Exploring Glaciers with a Camera. Wilderness Exploration Guides.
— . Going Light with Backpack or Burro. Wilderness Exploration Guides.
— . Illustrated Guide to Yosemite.Wilderness Exploration Guides.
Brower, David, ed. and designer. Maui: The Last Hawaiian Place, by Robert Wenkam. Friends of the
Earth.
— . Return to the Alps, by Max Knight and Gerhard Klammet. Friends of the Earth.
— . The Primal Alliance: Earth and Ocean, by John Hay and Richard Kauffman. Friends of the Earth.
— . Earth and the Great Weather: The Brooks Range, by Kenneth Brower. Friends of the Earth.
Eryri, The Mountains of Longing, by Philip Evans and Amory Lovins. Friends of the Earth.
— . A Sense of Place: The Artist and the American Land, by Alan Gussow. Friends of the Earth.
— . Micronesia: Island Wilderness, by Kenneth Brower and Robert Wenkam. Friends of the Earth.
Guale, The Golden Coast of Georgia, by James P. Valentine and John Earl. Friends of the Earth.
—. New England's White Mountains: At Home in the Wild, by Brooks Atkinson. Friends of the Earth.
— . Wake of the Whale, by Kenneth Brower and William Curtsinger. Friends of the Earth.
Resource Books on Energy
Brower, David, ed. Soft Energy Paths Toward a Durable Peace. Friends of the Earth.
— . Progress as if SurvivalMattered. Friends of the Earth.
—. Sun! Handbookfor the Solar Decade. Friends of the Earth.
— . The Energy Controversy.Friends of the Earth.
ECCS Hearings. Friends of the Earth.
—.World Energy Strategies: Facts, Issues, Options. Friends of the Earth.
— . Non-Nuclear Futures: The Case for an Ethical Energy Strategy. Friends of the Earth.
— . Frozen Fire. Friends of the Earth.
—. The Energy and Environmental Bibliography. Friends of the Earth.
— . The ToxicMetals Earth. Island Books.
Openpit Mining. Island Books.
—. Did WeSave the Earth at Stockholm?Island Books.
— . Only One Earth. Island Books.
— . Nuclear Reactors. Island Books.
— . The Limitsto Growth. Island Books.

106

— . River of Tears. Island Books.
— . Concorde, The Case against Supersonic Transport. Island Books.
Celebrating the Earth Series
Brower, David, ed. Song of the Earth Spirit, by Susanne Anderson. Island Books.
—. Only a Little Planet, by Martin Schweitzer and Lawrence Collins. Island Books.
—. Of All ThingsMost Yielding,by John Chang McCurdy. Island Books.
— . Sierra Club Bulletin.

1942-1969.

107