How will ASEAN countries move forward
towards carbon neutrality?
Dr. Nuki Agya Utama
Executive Director, ASEAN Centre for Energy
32nd Clean Coal Day International Symposium 2023 – Session I “Zero Emission towards Carbon Neutrality – Policy Updates”
5 September 2023

Introduction to the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE)
Established in January 1999, ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) is an intergovernmental organization within
ASEAN structure that represents the 10 ASEAN Member States’ interests in the energy sector.

What We Do
Catalyst

Unify and strengthen ASEAN energy cooperationby providing a platform for sharing, policy
advisory, best practices, and capacity building.

ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (APAEC)
Enhancing Energy Connectivity and Market Integration in ASEAN to Achieve Energy
Security, Accessibility, Affordability and Sustainability for All
Civilian Nuclear
EnergyASEAN Power Grid

Trans-ASEAN
Gas Pipeline

Knowledge HubProvide a knowledge repository for ASEAN
Member States (AMS) and services through data
management, publication, and dissemination.

Think Tank

Assist AMS on research and identifying practicaland specific solution on policies, legal, andregulatory frameworks, technologies, andinnovative solutions.
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What is APAEC?
A series of guiding policy documents
serving as the platform for deeper
cooperation both within ASEAN as wellas with DPs and IOs.
What does APAEC do?
Promoting multilateral cooperationand integration in the energy sector.

Regional
Energy Policyand Planning
Renewable
EnergyClean Coal
Technology
Energy Efficiency andConservation

What is APAEC trying to achieve?
To attain the goals of ASEAN Economic
Community (AEC) by enhancing
security, accessibility, affordability, andsustainability in the energy sector.

12Energy consumption in ASEAN will continue to grow; fossil fuel still
dominates the TFEC
Mtoe

Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe) and Share of Fossil Fuel (%)

ASEAN energy consumption is expected to triple from2020 to 2050 under baseline scenario, with fossil fuelsremain the highest consumption.
 Under the baseline scenario, coal, oil and gas consumption will grow 3.6
times in 2050 from 2020.
 This equals about 70% of the total final energy consumption in 2050,increasing from 63% in 2020.
Mtoe

Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe) and Share of Coal (%)

Despite the requirement to boost renewable energy
consumption, coal will still play an important role inmeeting the energy consumption in ASEAN.
 Transportation sector is still dominated by oil for about 91% of the totalenergy demand required by transportation sector in 2050.
 Oil and gas will also supply nearly half the required energy for commercial
and residential sectors.
 Coal will provide around 31.5% energy demand for industrial sector.
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3Despite the global pressure on coal phase-out/phase-down, coal will still becontributing to the total ASEAN’s energy mix
Mtoe

Primary Energy Supply (Mtoe) and Share of Coal (%)

Fossil fuels remain the largest component in the energy
supply mix of the region, with oil and gas contributing
more than 65% of the mix in 2050.
 Baseline scenario projects a 4-fold increase in energy required to fuelthe economic growth from 2020 to 2050.
 Even with the most aggressive energy transition scenario, coal, oil and gas
will contribute to a notable portion of the total energy supply.
TWhTotal Power Generation (TWh) and Share of Coal (%)

In the power sector, generation from coal is relatively
stable with a slight increase from 2020 to 2050.
 Despite increasingly being replaced by renewable energy, oil and gas still
comprises around one-third of the total electricity generation in 2050.
 Natural gas will remain the second most important energy sources after
coal in power sector, contributing to 29% of the total generation in 2050.

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4Coal in ASEAN’s economic development – driver of economic developmentin the some of AMS

Coal Production to GDP Ratio (%)

Coal Reserves to GDP Ratio

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Coal is the most cost-effective in Indonesia,Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.

•

Coal is a substantial export commodity in Indonesia,generating over USD14.5 billion in 2020.

•Vietnam’s domestic coal production to support thedomestic market.

•An 8% of Indonesia’s coal domestic production of
the global production, have notable proportions of
their economy coming from coal production of 8%
and net export of 3%.

•Coal value chains absorb a significant portion oflabour. In 2020, there were around 167,000 workers
in coal companies and 250,000 indirect coal mining
activities in Indonesia.

Coal Net Export to GDP Ratio (%)

Share of Global Production (%)

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It is projected that the GHG emissions in the ASEAN region is steadily
increased which raise environmental concerns•

Under baseline scenario, ASEAN GHG emissions isexpected to increase 3.6 times in 2050 than in2020 levels.

•GHG emissions comes from electricity (powergeneration and transformation processes) of
about 56% and transportation of 22%.

•GDP and population growth are the main driverof energy emissions growth in 2050.

Importance of pursuing emission reduction measures in boththe end-user and power sectors, preventing the missions fromone sector from offsetting the emission reductions fromanother.

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ASEAN states have announced their emission reduction target based on theirsubmission of the NDCs, primarily in the form of a percentage reduction
relative to the BAU scenario
Country

Official Emission Reduction Target

Submission DateBrunei Darussalam

Reduce GHG emissions by 20% from BAU scenario by 2030

31 Dec 2020

Cambodia

Reduce GHG emissions by 42% from BAU scenario by 2030
Reduce GHG emissions by 31.89% from BAU scenario by 2030 (unconditionally)and 43.2% from BAU scenario by 2030 (conditionally)
Reduce GHG emissions by 60% from BAU scenario by 2030 (unconditionally)
Reduce carbon intensity (against GDP) by 45% from 2005 level by 2030
Reduce GHG emissions by 244.5 Mt CO2e by 2030 (unconditionally) and by414.75 Mt CO2e by 2030 (conditionally)

31 Dec 2020

Indonesia
Lao PDR
Malaysia
Myanmar23 Sep 2022
11 May 2021
30 Jul 2021
3 Aug 2021

Philippines

Reduce GHG emissions by 75% from BAU scenario by 2030 of which 2.71% is
unconditional and 72.29% is conditional

15 Apr 2021

Singapore

Reduce GHG emissions to around 60 MtCO2e in 2030 after peaking emissions
earlier

4 Nov 2022

ThailandVietnam

Reduce GHG emissions by 30% from BAU scenario by 2030
Reduce GHG emissions by 15.8% from BAU scenario by 2030 (unconditionally)and by 43.5% from BAU scenario by 2030 (conditionally)

2 Nov 2022
8 Nov 2022

Source: Nationally Determined Contributions Registry, UNFCCCOne Community for Sustainable Energy

7ASEAN Countries towards Net Zero Targets or Carbon Neutrality

Several AMS have formalised their planning towards carbon neutrality into the long-term targets documents, while theothers are stated their commitment to achieve carbon neutrality.

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ASEAN needs “AND” Equation, rather than “OR” Equation
Our energy policies should balance the trade-offs between securing energy supply and accelerating energy
transition to enable a sustainable economic growth while also halting the climate crisis.
 Diversification of energy sources.
 Reducing
importedfossil
fuelconsumption and increasing domesticenergy use.
 Advancement of existing energy facilities
to reduce the emissions.

EnergySecurity

EnergyTransition

Sustainable Economic Growth Replacing traditional technology with
low-carbon one in power sector.
 Developing the indigenous renewableenergy sources.
 Expanding transitioning fuel to enablewider renewable energy penetration.

We need to continue the utilization of fossil fuelsAND
we need to also advance the energy transition
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9Decarbonization of the power sector to focus on the existing coal-fired
power plants (CFPPs), making carbon capture technology criticalMore than 60% of the CFPPs (by installed capacity) in Indonesia
currently have been operational for only 10 years or less, far
below the global average lifespan (46 years).

Complete phase-out of the existing coal-fired power plants canjeopardize just and seamless energy transition aspiration.
Consequences of an abrupt energy transitionAge distribution of existing coal-fired power plants in Indonesia

Affordability
Energy becomes more
expensive

Security
Economic growth iscompromised

Source: AEDS, 2022

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Sustainability
Clean energy becomesless competitive

Ensuring an orderly energy transition necessitates areduction of the carbon intensity of the existing energy
infrastructure  carbon capture technology can provide asolution to address the above trilemma
10Nascent development of CCS/CCUS in the ASEAN region. The region has enormous
storage potential, but policies and regulations need to be established.
•CCS facilities in ASEAN are underdevelopment–inconstruction,advanceddevelopment,
earlydevelopment and announced.

•Primary driver is reducing CO2 fromexisting oil and gas fields – to beleveraged in wider sectors.

•Uncertainty in the market, policy isrequired to incentivise investment –mitigating negative effects of market
failures on cost, revenues and risk.

•Limited development of CCS/CCUS
specific law and regulation in ASEAN
with recent developments in Indonesia
and Malaysia.

Source: GCCSIOne Community for Sustainable Energy

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ASEAN is promoting the new roles of CCT towards energy transition and low
carbon economy while balancing energy security, sustainability and resilience.
TNB GENCO journey towards 2050 in achieving net zeroemission

2025

2020

Starting Point

The sustainability pathstarted in 2020 with theestablishment of Genco

Commitment

Genco committed to reduce
emission intensity throughplant efficiency as well as pilot
project of sustainable fuelusage & carbon capture atcoal plant

2035

Commitment

2045“Coal-free” byEmission intensity
2045
reduction by 35% throughwide adoption ofsustainable fuel and clean
power plants

2050

Aspiration
Aspire to achieve Netzero GHG emission andZero coal plant

Reduction of coal capacity
by 47%

Source: TNB GENCOOne Community for Sustainable Energy

12Biomass Co-Firing will potentially reduce the environmental impacts ofCFPPs. Some AMS have issued a series of policies, regulations and initiatives
to support the development of co-firing biomass in CFPPs.
•••

Source: Brian Williams, 2022•

Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam have issued
policies and regulations on co-firing biomass.
Indonesia is leading country of co-firing biomass in CFPPs – 13locations with 7.3 GW have been commercially operated.
Challenges:• Limitation of biomass feedstocks due to existing boilers’types.
• Need specific handling of the feedstocks to avoid
efficiency reduction.
• Stable supply chain of biomass feedstocks.
• Inadequate financial support for co-firing projects.
• Need clear policies and roadmaps.
Way forwards:• Capacity building of biomass co-firing across AMS.
• Standardisation of biomass specification.
• Increase collaboration with the industries.
• Establish biomass database and mapping system.
• Establish supportive policies.

Source: ACE, 2023
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ASEAN Interconnection – A catalyst toExpedite Energy Transition• Realisation of ASEAN’s cross-border interconnection systemwith higher penetration of variable renewable energy (solarand wind), under the ASEAN Power Grid.

• AIMS III, Phases 1&2 identified 18 interconnectors projects*

and 62 VRE potential sites – 8,461 GW of RE to advance theAPG.

• Pushing ASEAN RE Target in 2025 will require 19,918 MW

interconnection capacity.

• Various forms of energy storage can be used to provide

stored power during peak hours. Crucial in enabling higher
penetration of RE and maintaining the power grid's stability. ​• In the LCO Scenario, the region is expected to require 26.6

GW of capacity to store about 1,100 GWh of electricity by2050. ​One Community for Sustainable Energy

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