Five Lessons for Sustainable
Transportation
Daniel Sperling

Professor and Director
Institute of Transportation Studies
University of California, DavisandBoard Member
California Air Resources Board
Blue Planet Prize Commemorative Lecture
October 31, 2013

Thank You to Asahi Glass Foundation“….supporting advanced research … and recognizing efforts to solve
environmental issues that call for global solutions”

Thank You to ITS-Davis• Founded: 1991
• 50 (brilliant and passionate) Professors andResearchers• 130 (brilliant and passionate) Graduate Students• Recently designated “National Center of Sustainable
Transportation” by US Department of Transportation• Centers within ITS-Davis:
 Plug-in & Hybrid Vehicle Center Energy Efficiency Center (1st in US)
 Urban Land Use and Transportation Research Center China Center on Energy and Transportation
 Sustainable Transportation Energy Pathways ProgramITS-Davis Team of Faculty, Staff, and Students

Thank You to California Air Resources Board• World leaders in air quality and climate policy• Pioneered Zero Emission Vehicle mandate, Low
Carbon Fuel Standards, low emission vehicles,and much more

• Superb staff: technically sophisticated, engaged
with stakeholders, passionate• Visionary leadership with Mary Nichols andRichard Corey, with strong support from Governor
Jerry Brown

World Population Is Expected to Increaseby 3 Billion
Population (billions)

121086420Years

More People + More Wealth = Many More Vehicles
Number of Motor Vehicles (Billions)

3.0

2.5

2.0
Cycles & Scooters

1.5

Trucks & Buses
Cars

1.0

0.5

0.0
Sperling and Gordon(2009), based on
DOE, JAMA, otherProblem Is NOT Lack of Oil!

Real Problem is Environmental Impact of High-Carbon Unconventional Oil
Supply “Curve” of World Hydrocarbon Resources

80

Arctic70

WEO required
Cumulative 2030

Arctic60$ per barrel

5040EOR

OilShaleEOR3020
Already
Produced10OPEC
Middle East

OtherConventional

Heavy oil
BitumenSuperDeep001000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Barrels Oil (billions)
IEA, 2005

6000

Energy Revolution Underway …

More (Unconventional) Oil and Gas Available Globally

Oil is Being Re-Carbonized … Heavy Oil,
Oil Sands, Coal-to-Liquids

Photo of Canadian Oil Sands

Climate Change Is Arguably Greatest Threat[1]Stern, Nicholas, The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, a report to the British government, 2006

2006!

We Will Use Up Our Global Carbon Budget in
30-50 Years—and Then Zero (at current rates)
CarbonReleased
Since
Industrial
Revolution

How MuchMore CanBe
Released?

530
billiontons

300 to500
billiontons

Remaining Fossil Energy(Carbon) Reserves

2800+ billion tons
(800 billion tons emitted from burning known
recoverable reserves with today’s energy
prices and technology)

IPCC, 2013

Transportation Plays Large Role

Transportation accounts for 1/4 of global CO2 emissions and 1/2of oil in world.

Five Lessons and Conclusions
1. No single solution: Need to pursue manysolutions

2. Focus on next steps (desirable pathways), notsimplistic end-state visions

3. One size does not fit all.
4. Scientific community needs to engage in nearterm decision-making—locally, nationally,globally

5. ???

Transforming Transportation• Transforming mobility (hardest)• Transforming fuels• Transforming vehicles (easiest)

First Leg:
Transforming Mobility and Land Use

Starting in California, car-centric cities
and lifestyles increasingly dominate
cities around the world.
Public transport <20% of passenger
kilometers traveled in all richcountries and shrinking almost
everywhere.

Population Densities: Lowest in US, Highest in Asia

USAsiaMotor vehicles per 1,000 people, 2009

Sources: World Bank 2011. Motor vehicles include cars, buses, and freightvehicles, but do not include two-wheelers.

Travel Peaking in Rich (OECD) Countries

Source : IEA, 2012 (ETP2012)Many Reasons to Reduce Vehicle Use(and Restrain Growth in Emerging Countries)…. for Economy, Environment, and Health• Reduced road and other infrastructure costs (water, wastewater, electricity)• Reduced air pollution, GHG emissions and oil use• Greater social equity and “livability” benefits

Not all vehicle trips are “high value”!

Key Strategy: Expand Traveler Choice

Smarter, Cleaner, and Cheaper!

Pogo

Second Leg:Transforming Fuels

BIOFUELSHYDROGEN

ELECTRICITYThe Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and theOil Age will end long before the world runs out ofoil.
Sheikh Zaki Yamani, Saudi Arabian oil minister for 3 decades• Today: Transport is 96% dependent on oil• Future: Wide mix of fuels to power mobility• Big challenges:
1. How to keep most fossil energy below ground?
2. How to stimulate innovation and support acceptance of low-carbon
alternatives?

Many Promising Replacements
Some better than others…

Fuel Cells, hydrogen
Biofuel, wood
Battery Electric, natural gas
Hybrid Electric, full hybrid
Battery Electric, US power mix
DieselEthanol, corn
Natural Gas
Gasoline, conventional
Battery Electric, new coal
Gasoline, tar sands
Gasoline, coal

-100

-50

050Carbon Emissions Relative to Conventional Gasoline

100Fuel du jour Phenomenon
Disruptive and wasteful• 30 years ago – Synfuels (oil shale, coal)• 25 years ago – Methanol• 20 years ago – Electricity (Battery EVs)
• 10 years ago – Hydrogen (Fuel cells)• 5 years ago – Ethanol• Today –Electricity (Plug-in hybrid vehicles)• What’s next?

California Leadership on Fuels Policy• Low Carbon Fuel Standard (adopted 2009)
 Requires 10% reduction in carbon intensity of transport
fuels by 2020
 Utilizes lifecycle analysis
 Harnesses market forces (via credit trading) Similar policy adopted by EU

Third Leg:
Transforming Vehicles
Cars of future will be far more efficient andwill be powered mostly by electric-drive
Success story for technology and policy!

Huge Success Story!

Vehicle Efficiency Improving Worldwide

ICCT, 2010 (updated 2012)

Moving Forward on Electrification
ICEMildHybridFull
HybridSmallBattery
PHEVBig
BatteryPHEV

Full
BEV

FCV

Potential for Disruption

Disruptive process … will it continue?

Japan is Global Leader on Vehicle
Electrification• Highest sales of hybrid vehicles (19%)• Most fast chargers for electric vehicles• Strongest public-private partnerships with battery
electric and fuel cell vehicles (and leadingautomotive companies)

Truck Efficiency and Technology Are
Advancing Also, But More Slowly
Electric Truck With
Overhead Wires

Fuel Cell TruckBatteryElectric Truck

California (CARB) Plan for Light Duty Vehicles:
87% Plug-in and Fuel Cell Vehicles in 2050

Many Challenges--Clashing Interests and Priorities

Policy Strategies to Transform Transportation
 Performance standards for fuels/GHGs
Low carbon fuel standard, tighten vehicle standards

 Market instruments to align regulations with market
Fuel and carbon taxes
Feebates Accelerate commercialization of advanced vehicles
Require and reward electric and fuel cell vehicles

 Restrain vehicle use
Improve public transportation, expand mobility choices,increase the cost of driving, manage urban land use

 Increased R&D investments (and training of next
generation of scientists and engineers)

Biofuels, batteries, fuel cells, lightweight materials,
innovative mobility technologies+

Five Lessons and Conclusions
1. No single solution: Need to pursue manysolutions (which mostly exist already)

2. Focus on change (desirable pathways), notsimplistic end-state visions

3. One size does not fit all. Tailor solutions to eachsituation (fuels, vehicles, mobility, infrastructure)

4. Scientific community needs to engage in nearterm decision-making—locally, nationally,globally

5. …..

5. Take Action Now!

有難う 御座います