I.

The Winnersof the Blue

1992

PlanetPrize

1992Blue
Dr. Syukuro(U.S.A.)
MemberPlanetManabeof the Senior

Executive

ServiceDynamics

Laboratory

the GeophysicalFluidat the National

Oceanic

and

of

Prize
International
Institute forEnvironment and Development(IIED)(Founded in the United Kingdom)

Atmospheric

Administration

At the 1992 Blue Planet Prize awards ceremony,
the opening slide presentation
highlighted
thebeauty of our blue planet with images of the
Earth seen from outer space. Each year, theawards ceremony features a slide presentationona different theme.

3Prime Minister Kiichi
opening ceremony.

Miyazawa

gives a congratulatory

speechat theAs the chaimanof thePresentation
Committee,
Dr. Saburo Okita reports on
the selection process.

HideakiYamashita,
chairman of the
Asahi GlassFoundation,delivers the
opening
address.

Asahi Glass Foundation Chairman Hideaki
Yamashita shakes hands with Michael
Armacost, ambassador of the United Statesof America to Japan. Directly behind Mr.
Armacost is Sir John Boyd, Her Britannic
Majesty's ambassador.

On the day following the awards ceremony, a symposium
was heldon the topic of creating a new civilizationin harmony with nautre.
Symposiumpanelists,from left; Keiko Nakamura,
Professor,
School of Human Sciences, Waseda University;
Takamitsu Sawa,
head of Kyoto University's
Instituteof Economic
Research;
Symposium
Coordinator
Hirotada Hirose, Professor,
College ofArts and Sciences,
Tokyo Women's
Christian
University;
Kenzaburo Oe, author; and Hiroyuki Ishi, Senior Staff Editor, Asahi
Shimbun Publishing Company.

4

Seated with other members of the audience, the laureates participate in a panel
discussion that followed the symposium.

Profile

Dr. Syukuro
SeniorScientist,

Administration,

Education
1953
1955
1958
1958

1963—

1966
1967
1968—
1970
1977
1979

Geophysical

Fluid

Princeton,

New Jersey

and Academic

andDynamics

Professional

ManabeLaboratory,

National

Oceanic

and Atmospheric

Activities

Bachelor of Science, University of Tokyo
Master of Science, University of Tokyo
Doctor of Science, University of Tokyo
Research Meteorologist, General Circulation Research Section, U.S. Weather
Bureau, Washington,D.C.
Senior Scientist, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory at the National Oceanicand AtmosphericAdministration, Princeton, New Jersey
Fujiwara Award,Japan Meteorological Society
Mesinger Award, American Meteorological Society
Lecturer with rank of professOr,Princeton University
Gold Medal Award, Department of Commerce
2nd Half-Century Award, American Meteorological Society
Member of the Senior Executive Service, U.S.A., Geophysical Fluid Dynamics
Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New
Jersey1981-87 World Meteorological Organization/International Council of Scientific Union/United
Nations Environmental Program, Joint Scientific Committee
1989
Meritorious Executive Award, President of the U.S.A.
1989-90 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Lead Author for Group I Report(Scientific Assessment)
1990

Elected

1992

Blue Planet

1993

RevelleMedal,

AmericanGeophysical

1994

Elected

Foreign

Member,Academia

1995

Elected

Foreign

Member,

Royal

1995

Asahi

Member,Prize,

National

Prize,

Asahi

Asahi

AcademyGlass

Shimbunof Sciences

Foundation
Union
Europaea

Society

Culturalof Canada

Foundation

Dr. Syukuro Manabe, a naturalizedU.S. citizen, was born in Ehime Prefecture, Japan, in 1931.
Dr. Manabe received a doctor of science degree from the University of Tokyoin 1958, when
he was invited to join a research group of the U.S. Weather Bureau as a research meteorologist. Dr. Manabe has since then continued to work at the same U.S. institution, which is currently called the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory of the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration.

5Dr. Manabe is a leader in developing computer models for the study of climate. Usinga one-dimensional model of climate which incorporates convective as well as radiative transfer of heat in the atmosphere, he successfully elucidated the role of greenhouse gases (e.g. carbon dioxide, water vapor and ozone) in maintaining the vertical thermal structure of the atmosphere. He and his collaborators made pioneering contributions to the projection of global
warming through the imaginative use of the one-dimensional, radiative-convective model
mentioned above and three-dimensional, general circulation models of the coupled oceanatmosphere system. Their contributions had a profound impact upon the assessments of climate change which were conducted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in1990 and 1995. The scope of his modeling activity is very extensive, covering not only the present and future climates, but also the climate of the geological past. Dr. Manabe has played aleading role in the emergence of the modeling approach as one of the most promising avenues
for the study of climate.

6

g

Essay

Model

Assessmentof Observed
Dr. Syukuro
April

GlobalWarming

Trend

Manabe1997

Prologue
When we discuss global warming, one of the questions which we ask frequently is, "Have wedetected global warming?" In this essay, I would like to answer this question using a generalcirculation model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, which will hereinafter be called
the "coupled model" for simplicity.
Since the basic structure of the coupled model was described in my commemorative lecture of the 1992 Blue Planet Prize contained in this volume, I shall not repeat it here. I would
like to note, however, that the coupled model has become a very valuable tool for the study ofclimate, successfully simulating both its interannual and decadal variabilities (Manabe andStouffer, 1996).
Figure 1 illustrates the time series of global averaged, annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) that Jones and Wigley (1991) constructed, based upon past observations of SAT.
In addition to the low frequency fluctuations of global mean temperature at interannual todecadal time scales, this time series exhibits the global warming trend that began around theturn of this century. In this essay, I would like to discuss whether the sustained warming trendof global mean temperature during the 20th century is induced by thermal forcing, as a resultof increasing greenhouse gases, or generated internally through the interaction among the

1.0

Observed

0.5
a) 0
a) a
) a)

0.0

Figure 1 Time series ofglobally averaged, annual
mean SAT anomalies (i.e.,the departuresfrom the1880-1920
base-periodmeans) obtained by Jonesand Wigley (1991).

-0 .5
1850

1950

1900

2000

Years

7

SURFACE
AIRTEMPERATURE
ANOMALY
0.4

oy

2

11(b)

11;7

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0 .2

-0.2

-0 .4

-0.4
0

100

200

300

400

500

TIME

600

700

800

900

1880

1 gao

(years)Figure 2 Time series of globally averaged, annual mean SAT anomaly from the long-term mean.
(a) 1,000-year time series from the coupled ocean-atmosphere model(b) 110-year time series (1881-1990) of observed, globally averaged temperature.
The straight lines through both time series are such that the sum of squared distance between the time series andthe straight line is minimized.

atmosphere,

oceans,and land surface.

Simulated natural variability
In order to study the natural variability of climate internally generated in the coupled system,
we conducted a 1,000-year integration of the coupled model at the Geophysical Fluid
Dynamics Laboratory of NOAA. The 1,000-year time series of global mean SAT anomaly
obtained from this time integration is illustrated in Fig. 2a and is compared to the time seriesof observed anomaly between 1881 and 1990 (Fig. 2b).
Stouffer et al. (1994) assessed the probability of finding in the simulated 1,000-yeartime series a century-scale warming trend such as that observed between 1881 and 1990 (Fig.
2b). They calculated the probability for linear trends exceeding 0.5 °C/century, which is theobserved trend between 1881 and 1990 (Jones and Wigley, 1991). It was found that, for intervals longer than —60years, there are no trends as large as 0.5 °C/century. In other words, theobserved warming trend of 0.5 °C/century is not found in the coupled model time series for any
intervals longer than —60years. If our model behavior is realistic, it is not likely that the oceanatmosphere-land interaction in the coupled model could randomly generate a substantial longterm warming trend such as that observed since the end of the last century.
To examine spectrally how realistic is the time series of global mean SAT anomaly
shown in Fig. 2, the power spectrum of detrended and glqbally averaged, monthly mean SAT
anomaly from the 1,000-year integration of the coupled model is compared in Fig. 3 with thespectrum of detrended, observed SAT compiled by Jones and Wigley (1991). (The detrendingof the observed time series reduces the contributions from the fluctuations on time scales
longer than 100 years.) This comparison indicates that, at multidecal and shorter time scales,
the coupled model simulates the observed spectrum reasonably well.1
However, the coupled model fails to simulate any large warming trend of centennial
time scale such as that observed during this century. This failure suggests that the observed

8

warming

trend was not generated

internallyin the coupledsystem,but was thermallyforced.

Thermally forced response
As noted in my commemorative lecture of 1992, the coupled model overestimates the warming trend of the 20th century, if it were forced by greenhouse gases alone. Recently, Mitchell
et al. (1995) of the U.K. Meteorological Office obtained a more realistic trend by forcing theircoupled model with the effect of sulfate aerosols in addition to increasing greenhouse gases.
At the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, we have conducted a similar experimentusing the coupled model. The temporal variation of sulfate aerosols and the CO2-equivalentconcentration of greenhouse gases used for our experiment are practically identical to thoseused by Mitchell et al.2 Starting from the initial condition, which is a snapshot of the 1,000year control integration described in the previous section, Haywood et al. (1997) performed theintegration of the coupled model over the period from 1765 to 2065 with thermal forcing of
combined greenhouse gases and aerosols, as described above.
Figure 4 illustrates the temporal variation of the globally averaged, annual mean SAT
anomalies of the coupled model from 1850 to 2000. For comparison, the time series ofobserved, global mean SAT anomaly compiled by Jones and Wigley (1991) is added to thesame figure. This figure indicates that the simulated warming trend during the past 100 years
is remarkably similar to the observed trend. The model also reproduces the magnitude of theobserved decadal variability reasonably well, as discussed in the previous section.
In view of the large uncertainty in the estimation of the atmospheric loading of various
aerosols and their radiative effect, the close agreement of the simulated and observed warming trends during this century could be fortuitous. For example, many radiative forcings otherthan sulfate aerosols are neglected in this experiment, including those due to ozone changes,
other anthropogenic aerosols, indirect aerosol effects on cloud brightness, and changes in thesolar irradiance. Furthermore, the climatic response to these forcings is also uncertain. It
appears significant, however, that we are unable to simulate the observed warming during thelast 100 years unless the combined effect of increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols
is incorporated.
Concluding

remarks

Based upon the comparison

betweenthe observed

SAT, we suggest that the sustained warming
through the interaction

and simulated

variabilityof global mean

trend of this century was not generated

internallyamong the atmosphere,

oceans, and land surface. Instead, it appears tohave been forced by natural and anthropogenic

thermal forcing such as that resulting from the

1The coupled model spectrum is inside the 95% confidence interval of the observed system, though the similarity
between the two spectra does not hold too well at the time scale of 2-7 years . Because of its course computational
resolution, the coupled model underestimates the amplitude of the Southern Oscillation with this time scale (seeKnutson and Manabe, 1994; Knutson et al., 1997).
2 The CO2 -equivalent radiative forcing of greenhouse gases from 1765 to 1900 was based upon the 1990 report of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1990). After 1990 , it was assumed to increase by 1% per
year, following approximately the best guess IPCC 1992a scenario (IPCC, 1992). The direct effect of sulfate
aerosols was added by increasing surface albedo at each grid box, yielding the 1990 global mean thermal forcingof --0.6 W/m2.

9increase of solar irradiance (Lean, 1991) and greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A similarinference could also be drawn from analysis of the time series of global mean SAT obtained
from the coupled model developed at the Hadley Centre of the U.K. Meteorological Office(Mitchell et al., 1995).
In addition to analyzing the time series of global mean SAT, other approaches havebeen employed for the detection of global warming. By comparing the pattern of the observed
SAT models, Hegerl et al. (1996) concluded that statistically significant, externally induced
warming has been observed. Saner et al. (1996) noted that the observed pattern of temperaturechange in the free atmosphere from 1963 to 1997 is similar to those obtained by climate models which incorporate various combinations of changes in carbon dioxide, anthropogenic sulfate aerosols and stratospheric ozone concentrations. The conclusions of these studies areclearly in support of the recent statement of the IPCC (IPCC, 1996): "The balance of evidence
suggests a discernible human influence on global climate."
PERIOD
500

200

100

YEARS
50
20

10

5

2

1

MONTHS
2
1

5

10'

—

100

/ —

OBS.

COUPLED MODEL

0
cr

co

10'
10-4

io

10.2

FREQUENCY

10-

10

0

(eye/month)Figure 3 Power spectra of detrended
globally averaged, monthly mean SAT
anomaly. The thick solid line represents
the spectrum of the coupled model timeseries shown in Fig. 2a, and the thin solidline represents
the spectrum of theobserved time series (obtained by use of
the data compiled by Jones and Wigley(1991)). The spectra are the smoothed
Fourier transform of autocovariancefunction using a Tukey window with amaximum of 2,400 lags (200 years) forthe models and 480 lags (40 years) for
the observed. They are smoothed byequally weighted averaging over the logarithmic (base 10) interval of 0.04 in frequency.

1.0

Model (CO2 + Aerosols)
Observed

0.5

3

0.0

-0.5

1850

1900

1950
Years

10

2000

Figure 4 Time series of globally averaged, annual mean SAT anomalies (i.e.,
deviations from the 1880-1920 mean).
Thick solid line: observed (Jones et al.,1991); thin solid line: simulated.

References
Haywood, J.M., R.J. Stouffer,R.T. Wetherald, S. Manabe, and V.Ramaswamy."Transient Response of a Coupled
Model to Estimated Changes in Greenhouse Gases and Sulfate Concentrations," Geophys. Res. Letters, (1997),(in press).
Hegerl,G.C., H. von Storch,K. Hasselmann,B.D. Santer,U. Cusbach, and P.D.Jones. "Detecting Greenhouse GasInduced Climate Change with an Optimum Fingerprint Method,"J. Climate, 9 (1996), 2281-2306.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, edited by J.T.
Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climatic Change, 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC
ScientificAssessment.Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992.
IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change. Climatic Change,1995: The Scienceof Climate Change.Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 1996.
Jones, P. and T.M.L. Wigley. "Global and Hemispheric Anomalies." In Trends '91: A Compendium of Data on
Global Change, edited by T.A. Boden, R.J. Sepanski, and F.W. Stoss. Oak Ridge: Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, 512-517.
Knutson, T.R. and S. Manabe. "Impact of Increased CO2 on ENSO-Like Phenomena in a Coupled OceanAtmosphere Model," Geophys.Res. Letters, 21/21 (1994), 2295-2298.
Lean, J. "Variationin the Sun's Radiative Output,"Rev.Geophys., 29 (1991), 505-535.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer. "Low-Frequency Variability of Surface Air Temperature in a 1,000-YearIntegration of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Surface Model," J. Climate, 9/2 (1996), 376-393.
Mitchell,J.F.B., T.C.Johns, J.M. Gregory,and S.F.B.Tett. "Climate Response to Increasing Levels of Greenhouse
Gases and Sulphate Aerosols,"Nature, 376 (1995), 501-504.
Santer, B.D., K.E. Taylor, T.M.L. Wigley, T.C. Johns, P.D. Jones, D.J. Karoly, J.F.B. Mitchell. A.H. Oort, J.E.
Penner, V. Ramaswamy,M.D. Schwarzkopf,R.J. Stouffer,and S.F.B.Tett. "A Search for Human Influences on
the Thermal Structure of the Atmosphere,"Nature, 382 (1996), 39-46.
Stouffer, R.J., S. Manabe, and K.Y. Vinnikov. "Model Assessment of the Role of Natural Variability in Recent
Global Warming,"Nature, 367 (1994), 634-636.

11

Lecture

Future Projection of Global Warming by Climate
ModelsDr. Syukuro

ManabeThis lecture describes briefly my involvement in the development of climate models during thelast 35 years and the application of these models to the study of global warming. The lecture
concludes with a discussion of the strategy towards the reliable projection of the long-termchange of climate in the future.
My involvement in the modeling study of climate began in the fall of 1958 when Dr.
Joseph Smagorinsky of the U.S. Weather Bureau invited me to join his group and participate
in a very ambitious project for the development of comprehensive models of climate. My initial assignment was the incorporation of the radiative effect of various greenhouse gases (e.g.,water vapor, carbon dioxide and ozone) into a three-dimensional general circulation model ofthe atmosphere. As the first step towards this goal, we constructed a one-dimensional radiativeconvective model of the atmosphere which included the effects not only of radiative transfer
but also the convective restoration of the neutral, vertical temperature gradient due to cumulus
convection and synoptical scale disturbances (Manabe and Strickler, 1964; Manabe andWetherald, 1967).
Figure 1 illustrates the vertical distribution of the global mean temperature which is inradiative-convective equilibrium. The equilibrium state was approached asymptoticallythrough a long-term integration of the radiative-convective model mentioned above. The heatbalance of the convective troposphere is maintained between the convective heating and net
radiative cooling, whereas the stably stratified stratosphere aloft is in radiative equilibrium
without convective heating. The state of radiative equilibrium obtained compares favorablywith the U.S. standard atmosphere which is added to Figure 1 for comparison.
To evaluate the response of the model atmosphere to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration, numerical experiments were performed with the radiative-convective model of theatmosphere. Figure 2 illustrates the vertical distribution of the simulated, global mean thermal
equilibrium temperature of the atmosphere for the normal, half the normal, and twice the normal concentration of CO2. In response to the doubling of atmospheric CO2 from the normal totwice the normal concentration, for example, the equilibrium surface temperature of the modelincreases by about 2.3 °C. The figure also reveals that the magnitude of the cooling resulting
from the halving of the CO2 concentration (from the normal to half the normal concentration)
is approximately equal to the magnitude of the warming from the doubling of CO2 concentration.
The physicalgreenhouse12

mechanismof the greenhousegases such as CO2 and H2O can absorb

effect may be understoodand emit terrestrial

by realizing

radiationthatbut absorb

a

I

2.3
/

40

(50)

/
//
h.--

2.3

CO,
150 ppm
300 ppm

f.

(40)

600 ppm

10

30

i//
/.

..*

E

U.S.

ATM.

STANDARD

10

(30)

cr

fi

THERMAL EQU II... (AVG. CLOUDS)

r
--1
H
a

i '`t

.o E

/

;/
:/
Y

1.61 C
.
rn

c=1

20

CZ

a

(20)

3

100

100
CLOUDINESS
H(.228)ML .M7(.090)(.313)

300

340

1000

10

(10)

(0)
180

220

260

TEMPERATURE

1000

0
180

200

220

240

260

280

300

TEMPERATURE
(K)

(°K)

Figure 1. Dashed line shows the vertical distribution of
global mean temperature of the atmosphere in radiative-convective equilibrium. (The prescribed cloudinessis indicated on the right-hand side of the figure.) The
solid line shows the U.S. standard atmosphere. From
Manabe and Strickler (1964).

Figure 2. Vertical distribution of temperature in radiative-convective equilibrium for various values of atmospheric CO2 concentration, i.e., 150, 300, and 600 ppm
by volume. From Manabe and Wetherald (1967).

relatively small fraction of solar radiation. In the mid-troposphere, these gases absorb and reemit a major fraction of the upward terrestrial radiation emitted from the Earth's surface andthe lower troposphere.Thus, the effective source of emission of the outgoing terrestrial radiation at the top of the atmosphere is located in the mid-troposphererather than the Earth's surface. On the other hand, in an atmosphere without greenhouse gases, the source of emission
would be confined to the Earth's surface which is warmer than the mid-troposphere. In orderto maintain the compensationbetween the net incoming solar radiation and outgoing terrestrial
radiation at the top of the atmosphere, it is therefore necessary that the thermal equilibrium
temperature of the troposphere with greenhouse gases be much higher than that of the greenhouse gas-free atmosphere. Thus, greenhouse gases help maintain the surface temperature of
our planet at a level which sustainsthe biosphere. These discussionsalso imply that an increasein the atmospheric concentrationof CO2 raises the altitude of the effective source of emission
and reduces the outgoingterrestrial radiation,thereby contributingto the global warming of the
combined surface-tropospheresystem.
It is expected
troposphere

increases

perature. Sincevery effectively,that, associatedbecausewith globalof the dependence

water vapor is a greenhousethe increase in the absolute

warming,

the absoluteof saturation

vapor

humidityin the model

pressureupon

air tem-gas which absorbs and emits terrestrial
radiation
humidityof air raises the altitude of the effective

13.

Coupled

Ocean-Atmosphere-Land

Figure3. Box diagram
which illustrates
the structure of the coupled oceanatmospheremodel.

Model

Atmosphere
Thermodynamic
Equation

Equation of
Water Vapor

Radiative

evaporation

sensible Heat
Latent heat

precipitation

radiative

Water Budget
Snow Budget

Salt Equation
run
off

Land

Ocean

Equation of
MotionTransfer

surfacestresstransfer

Heat
Budget

Thermodynamic

Land

Ocean

Equationof•...•.•

Motion

....

Ocean

source of outgoing terrestrial radiation. Thus, the temperature of the model troposphere
increases further, maintaining the radiation balance of the surface-atmosphere system as awhole. In addition, the increase of absolute humidity increases the fraction of solar radiation
absorbed by the model atmosphere, thereby decreasing the planetary albedo and enhancing theCO2-induced warming. In short, water vapor plays an important role in enhancing the CO2induced warming of the atmosphere. Using the radiative-convective model, we succeeded forthe first time to correctly evaluate the positive feedback effect of water vapor (Manabe andWetherald, 1967).
The development of the simple radiative-convective model described above was animportant step towards the construction of the three-dimensional, general circulation model(GCM) of the atmosphere.1 The success of the GCM in the 1960s and early 1970s in simulating many basic features of atmospheric circulation and climate (e.g., Manabe and Holloway,1975) encouraged us to use the GCM for evaluating global warming (Manabe and Wetherald,
1975; Manabe and Stouffer, 1980).
One of the important factors which control the transient response of climate to a greenhouse forcing is the oceans. If the heat trapped by increasing greenhouse gases is stored in theupper layer of the oceans, or is sequestered into the deeper ocean through vertical mixing, it ispossible that global warming could be delayed significantly. Thus, oceans can affect substantially the rate and distribution of global warming. This was one of the important reasons why
we started developing the so-called coupled ocean-atmosphere models in the 1960s (Manabe
and Bryan, 1969).
I would

like to describe

here

the resultsfroma recent

numerical

experiment

I For more detailed discussion on early developments in the model study of the greenhouse effectwhich, see my recently
published review paper :Manabe, S. "Early Development in the Study of Global Warming: The Emergence of Climate Models." Ambio(1997, in press).

14

Figure 4. The geographicaldistribution of the changes insurface air temperature of
the coupled ocean-atmosphere model in response to
the 1%/year increase (compounded) of atmosphericCO2. It represents the warming averaged over the 60th80th year period when theCO2 concentration is doubled (Manabe et al., 1991).

90N

+4"

60
Ci°

+3

30
+3

+2

0

0

•c,(+3

+2

C+2.)

30
+2_

+1

60
90S
120E

-+

+2-d

Cd.)
+2

+2
180

120W

60W

0

60E

120E

explored the transient response of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model to a gradual increase of
atmospheric CO2 (Stouffer et al., 1989; Manabe et al., 1991).2 The coupled model consists ofan atmospheric GCM, an oceanic GCM and a simple model of the continental surface thatinvolves the budget of heat and water (Figure 3). It is a global model with realistic geography.
The atmospheric component of the model has seasonal variation of insolation, and predictedcloud cover which depends only on relative humidity. It has nine vertical finite difference levels. To improve the accuracy of hydrodynamic calculations, the horizontal distributions ofvariables specified at grid points are represented by spherical harmonics at each time step. The
oceanic GCM uses a finite difference technique and has a regular grid system with 4.5° x
3.75° (latitude x longitude) spacing and 12 vertical finite difference levels. The atmosphericand oceanic components of the model interact with each other continuously through theexchange of heat, water, and momentum, as illustrated by Figure 3.
The rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration chosen for this transient response
experiment is 1%/year. This rate is approximately equal to the rate at which the total CO2equivalent concentration of all greenhouse gases (except water vapor) is increasing currently.
Figure 4 illustrates the geographical distribution of the increase in annual mean surface air temperature when the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is doubled (i.e., 70th year of the experiment). The doubling of the CO2-equivalent concentration of greenhouse gases from the preindustrial level may realized around the middle of next century (IPCC, 1990). The figure
indicates that the simulated response of surface air temperature is slow over the northern North
Atlantic and the Circumpolar Ocean of the Southern Hemisphere, where the vertical mixingof the heat trapped by the increased greenhouse gas penetrates very deeply. However, in mostof the Northern Hemisphere and low latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, the distribution of
the change in surface air temperature is very similar to the results obtained earlier without thedelaying effect of the oceans. For example, surface air temperature increases with increasing
latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere and is larger over continents than oceans. The increase
is at a maximum over the Arctic Ocean and its surroundings in the early winter and is mini2 For more recent overview of climate change studies by coupled atmosphere models , see the review paper by
Manabe et al. (1994).
Manabe, S., R.J Stouffer, and M.J. Spelman. "Response of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Increasing
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide." Ambio, 23 (1994), 44-49.

15

Figure 5. Time series ofglobally averaged, annual
mean surface air temperature anomalies(i.e., thedepartures from 1961-1990
base-period means) obtained
by Jones and Wigley (1991).

1.0

0.5

-6
0
a) cn

EL)
c:3)
p

0.0

-0 .5
1850

1900

1950

2000

Years

mum in summer. The enhanced heat conduction through thinner sea ice is responsible for the
early winter maximum, whereas sea ice prevents the temperature of the oceanic mixed layer
and the overlying air to rise substantially above the freezing point in summer, and is responsible for the summer minimum in warming. Although the Arctic sea ice loses its thickness in
winter as mentioned above, it becomes less extensive as well as thinner in summer.
The increase of a greenhouse gas affects not only the thermal structure of the coupledsystem but also the hydrologic cycle. For example, the global mean rates of both precipitationand evaporation increase (Manabe and Wetherald, 1975). Because of the increase in the poleward, atmospheric transport of water vapor associated with the increase in the moisture content of air, the increase of precipitation rate in high latitudes far exceeds that of evaporation
rate, markedly increasing runoff and reducing the surface salinity in the Arctic and surrounding oceans. This capping of the oceanic surface by relatively fresh water reduces the convective activity in high latitudes and weakens the thermohaline circulation which advects warmand saline surface water northwards, further reducing the greenhouse warming in the northern
North Atlantic and surrounding regions (Manabe et al., 1991). It has also been noted that thesoil moisture is reduced in summer over extensive mid-continental regions of both the Eurasianand North American continents of the model (Manabe et al., 1981). Thus, it is likely that summer droughts may become more frequent as the greenhouse warming intensifies.
Figure 5 illustrates the temporal variation of the globally averaged, annual mean surface
air temperature anomaly compiled by Jones and Wigley (1991) during the last 140 years.3 The
figure shows that the global mean temperature has increased by about 0.6 °C since the beginFor the recent model assessment of the temporal variation of the global mean surface air temperature shown in
Figure 4, see recent review article by Manabe and Stouffer:
Manabe, S. and R.J. Stouffer. "Climate Variability of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land
Surface Model:
Implication for the Detection of Global Warming." Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (1997, in press).

16

PREDICTION

OF GLOBAL

CLIMATE
Monitoring
In-situ observations
Satellite observations

Process Studies
Cloud feedback process
Land surface processes
Oceanic mixing

Prediction
With coupled
ocean-atmosphere-landmodeland supercomputers
Diagnostic
Study.
Model validation
Impact assessment

Figure

6. Diagram

which illustrates

Adaptation
andLimitation

the strategy for the projection of future climate change.

ning of the century.We found that, in response to the observed increase of greenhouse gases,
the coupled model generates an increase of global mean surface air temperature which is larger
than observedby the factor of about 1.5. This overestimate of global,warming may result fromour neglect of the cooling effect of sulfate aerosols which reflect incoming solar radiation .
Because of fossil fuel combustion, the atmospheric loading of sulfate aerosols has increased
rapidly during the last several decades (Charlson et al., 1990). It is therefore very urgent tomonitor the temperature variationof various thermal forcings, such as those due to the increaseof aerosols, as well as greenhouse gases.
The overestimate of global warming mentioned above may also be attributable to theexcessive sensitivity of the coupled model which we constructed. It is therefore desirable toevaluate the sensitivityof the model by comparing the simulatedand actual changes of climate.
The agreementbetween these climate changes should enhance our confidence in our ability to
project the future change of climate.
A comprehensive strategy for the successful validation of a climate model is illustrated
by the box diagram in Figure 6. It involves:
1. reliable, long-term monitoring of climate and its thermal forcings such as changes in theconcentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere;
2. simulation of observed climate change by a coupled model;
and3. comparative assessment of the simulated and observed changes of climate.
The insight gained from this comprehensive effort is indispensable for the reliable projectionof future climate change and successful adaptation to and mitigation of anthropogenicclimatechange in the future.
The executionof the comprehensive strategy identified above requires the constructionof supercomputers and the development of artificial satellites, in which the contribution ofJapanese engineers is increasing rapidly. I hope that Japanese scientists will also play anincreasingly important role in modeling and observing the future change of global environment by using these powerful tools.
References
Manabe, S., and R.F. Strickler. " Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a ConvectiveAdjustment."J. Atmos.
Sci., 21 (1964), 361-385.

17

Manabe, S., and R.T. Wetherald. "Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative
Humidity." J. Atmos. Sci., 24 (1967), 241-259.
Manabe, S., and J.L. Holloway,Jr. "The Seasonal Variationof the Hydrological Cycle as Simulated by a Global
Model of the Atmosphere."J. Geophys.Res., 80 (1975), 1617-1649.
Manabe, S., and R.T. Wetherald. "The Effect of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the Climate of a General
Circulation Model." J. Atmos. Sci., 32 (1975), 3-15.
Manabe, S., and R.J. Stouffer."Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an Increase of CO2Concentrations in the
Atmosphere."J. Geophys.Res., 85 (C10), (1980), 5529-5554.
Manabe, S., and K. Bryan. "Climate Calculation with a Combined Ocean-Atmosphere Model." J. Atmos. Sci., 26(1969), 786-789.
Stouffer, R.J., S. Manabe, and K. Bryan. "Interhemispherical Asymmetry in Climate Response to a Gradual
Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide." Nature, 342 (1989), 660-662.
Manabe, S., R.J. Stouffer, M.J. Spelman, and K. Bryan. "Transient Response of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere
Model to GradualChanges of Atmospheric CO2.Part I: Annual Mean Response." J. Climate,4 (1991), 785-818.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, edited by J.T.
Houghton, G.J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums.Cambridge UniversityPress, 1990.
Manabe, S., R.T. Wetherald, and R.J. Stouffer. "Summer Dryness due to an Increase of Atmospheric CO2
Concentration."J. Climate Change, 3 (1981), 336-376.
Jones, P., and T.M.L. Wigley. "Global and Hemispheric Anomalies." In Trend '91: A Compendium of Data on
Global Change, edited by T.A. Boden, R.J. Sepanski, F.W. Stoss, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1991, 512517.
Charlson, R.J., J. Languer, and H. Rodhe. "Sulfate Aerosol and Climate." Nature, 348 (1990), 22.

18

Major Publications
Dr. Syukuro Manabe
ArticlesManabe, Syukuro. "On the Development and Energetics of the WesterlyWaves." J. Meterol.
Soc. Japan, 33/2 (1955), 76-88.
Gambo, K., K. Katow, S. Manabe and M. Aihara. "Numerical Forecasting over the Far Eastby the Double Fourier Series Method." J. Meterol. Soc. Japan, 33/3 (1955), 133-139.
Syono, S., M. Gambo, K. Miyakoda, M. Aihara, S. Manabe and K. Katow. "Report on the
Numerical Prediction of the 500-mb Contour Height Change with Double Fourier Series
Method." J. Meterol. Soc. Japan, 33/4 (1955), 174-176.
Komabayashi, M., K. Miyakoda, M. Aihara, S. Manabe, and K. Katow. "The Quantitative
Forecast of Precipitation with the Numerical Prediction Method." J. Meterol. Soc. Japan,
33/5 (1955), 205-216.
Manabe, Syukuro. "A Note on the Barotropic Forecast Using a Moving Coordinate System."J. Meterol. Soc. Japan, 33/7 (1955), 164-168.
— . "On the Contribution of Heat Released by Condensation to the Change in Pressure
Pattern." J. Meterol. Soc. Japan, 34/6 (1956), 308-320.
— . "On the Modification of Air-Mass over the Japan Sea When the Outburst of Cold Air
Predominates."J. Meterol. Soc. Japan, 35/6 (1957), 311-326.
Syono, S., K. Miyakoda, S. Manabe, T. Matsuno, T. Murakami and Y. Okuta. " Broad-Scaleand Small-Scale Analyses of a Situation of Heavy Participation over Japan in the Last
Period of Baiu Season 1957."Japan J. Physics, 2/2 (1959), 59-103.
Manabe, Syukuro. "On the Estimation of Energy Exchange Between the Japan Sea and theAtmosphere During Winter Based upon the Energy Budget of Both the Atmosphere andthe Sea." J. Meterol. Soc. Japan, 26/4 (1958), 123-133.
Moller,F and S. Manabe. "Uber das Strahlungsgleischgewichtder Atmosphare" Sonderdruckaus, Zeitschriftfur Meterologie, 15/1-6(1961), 3-8.
Manabe, Syukuro and F. Moller. "On the Radiative Equilibrium and Balance of the
Atmosphere."Mon. Wea.Rev., 89/12 (1961), 503-532.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.F. Strickler. "Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with aConvectiveAdjustment." J. Atmos. Sci., 21/4 (1964), 361-385.
Smagorinsky, Joseph, S. Manabe and J. L. Holloway, Jr. "Numerical Results from a NineLevel General Circulation Model of the Atmosphere." Mon. Wea. Rev., 93/12 (1965),
727-768.
Manabe, Syukuro, J. Smagorinsky and R.F. Strickler. "Simulated Climatology of a General
Circulation Model with a Hydrologic Cycle." Mon. Wea. Rev., 93/12 (1965), 769-798 .
Manabe, Syukuro and Smagorinsky,Joseph. "Simulated Climatology of a General Circulation
Model with a Hydrologic Cycle: II. Analysis of the Tropical Atmosphere."Mon. Wea.Rev.,
95/4 (1967), 155-169.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.T. Wetherald. "Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given

19

Distribution of Relative Humidity."J. Atmos. Sci., 24/3 (1967), 241-259.
Manabe, Syukuro. "General Circulation of the Atmosphere, Transactions." Am. Geophys.
Union., 48/2 (1967), 427-431.
Smagorinsky,J., R.F. Strickler, W.E. Sangster, S. Manabe, J.L. Holloway and G.D. Hembree.
"Prediction Experiments with a General Circulation Model ." Proc. IAMAP/WMO
International Symposium on Dynamics of Large-Scale Processes in the Atmosphere.
(Moscow,USSR, 1965) (1967), 70-134.
Manabe, Syukuro and B.G. Hunt. "Experiments with a Stratospheric General Circulation
Model: I. Radiative and Dynamic Aspects." Mon. Wea.Rev., 96/8 (1968), 477-502.
Hunt, Barrie G. and S. Manabe. "Experimentswith a StratosphericGeneral Circulation Model:
II. Large-Scale Diffusion of Tracers in the Stratosphere." Mon. Wea. Rev., 96/8 (1968),
503-539.
Stone, Hugh M. and S. Manabe. "Comparison Among VariousNumerical Models Designed
for Computing Infrared Cooling."Mon. Wea.Rev., 96/10 (1968), 735-741.
Hunt, B.G. and S. Manabe. "An Investigation of Thermal Tidal Oscillations in the Earth's
AtmosphereUsing a General Circulation Model." Mon. Wea.Rev., 96/11 (1968), 753-766.
Manabe, Syukuro and K. Bryan. "Climate Calculations with a Combined Ocean-Atmosphere
Model."J. Atmos. Sci., 26/4 (1969), 786-789.
Manabe, Syukuro. "Climate and Ocean Circulation: I. The Atmospheric Circulation and theHydrology of the Earth's Surface." Mon. Wea.Rev., 97/11 (1969), 739-774.
—. "Climate and Ocean Circulation: II. The Atmospheric Circulation and the Effect of Heat
Transfer by Ocean Currents." Mon. Wea.Rev., 97/11 (1969), 775-805.
Manabe, Syukuro, J. Smagorinsky, J.L. Holloway, Jr. and H.M. Stone. "Simulated
Climatology of a General Circulation Model with a Hydrologic Cycle: III.. Effects ofIncreased Horizontal Computational Resolution." Mon. Wea.Rev., 98/3 (1970), 175-212.
Manabe, Syukuro, J.L. Holloway, Jr. and H.M. Stone. "Tropical Circulation in a TimeIntegration of a Global Model of the Atmosphere." J. Atmos. Sci., 27/4 (1970), 580-613.
Manabe, Syukuro and J.L. Holloway, Jr. "Simulation of the Hydrologic Cycle of the Global
Atmospheric Circulation by a Mathematical Model." Proc. Reading Symposium on World
Water Balance, International Association of Scientific Hydrology. (1970), 387-400.
Manabe, Syukuro. "Cloudiness and the Radiative, ConvectiveEquilibrium." Proc. AAAS Air
Pollut. Session Dallas, Texas. In Global Effects of Environmental Pollution, edited by S.
Fred Singer. D. Reidel, 1970,156-157.
— . "The Dependence of Atmospheric Temperatureon the Concentration of Carbon Dioxide."
Proc. AAAS Air Pollut. Session Dallas, Texas. In Global Effects of Environmental
Pollution, edited by S. Fred Singer. D. Reidel, 1970,25-29.
Manabe, Syukuro and J.K. Holloway, Jr. "Climate Modification and a Mathematical Model ofAtmospheric Circulation." Proc. of Joint Symposium Commemorating the Centennial of
the US Weather Service and Golden Anniversary of the Am. Meterol. Soc., Wash., D.C., A
Century of Weather Progress, edited by James E. Caskey, Jr. Lancaster Press, 1970,
157-164.
Holloway, J. L. Jr. and S. Manabe. "Simulation of Climate by a Global General Circulation

20

Model: I. Hydraulic Cycle and Heat Balance." Mon. Wea.Rev., 99/5 (1971), 335-370.
Manabe, Syukuro. "General Circulation of the Atmosphere."EOS, TransactionsAm. Geophys.
Union (Meterol.: US National Report, IUGG Fifteenth General Assembly), 52/6 (1971),
313-320.
—. "Estimates of Future Change of Climate Due to the Increase of Carbon Dioxide
Concentration in the Air." Man's Impact on the Climate, edited by W.H. Matthews, W.W.
Kellog and G.D. Robinson. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1971,250-264.
Wetherald,Richard T. and S. Manabe. "Response of the Joint Ocean-AtmosphereModel to the
Seasonal Variation of the Solar Radiation." Mon. Wea. Rev., 100/1 (1972), 45-59.
Mahlman, Jerry D. and S. Manabe. "Numerical Simulation of the Stratosphere: Implications
for Related Climate Change Problems." Proc. Survey Conference on the Climatic Impact
Assessment Program, Dept. of Transportation Report DOT-TSC-OST-72-13, (1972),
186-193.
Holloway, J. Leith Jr., M.J. Spelman and S. Manabe. "Latitude-Longitude Grid Suitable for
Numerical Time Integration of a Global Atmospheric Model." Mon. Wea. Rev., 101/1(1973), 69-78.
Manabe, Syukuro and T.B. Terpstra. "The Effects of Mountains on the General Circulation of
the Atmosphere as Identified by Numerical Experiments ." J. Atmos. Sci., 31/1 (1974),
3-42.
Manabe, Syukuro, D.G. Hahn, and J.L. Holloway,Jr. "The Seasonal Variation of the Tropical
Circulation as Simulated by a Global Model of the Atmosphere." J. Atmos. Sci., 31/1
(1974), 43-83.
Holloway,J. Leith Jr. and S. Manabe. "Numerical Simulation of the Seasonal Variation of the
Atmospheric Hydrologic Cycle." J. Phys.‘Oceanogr., 5/1 (1975), 3-29.
Bryan, Kirk, S. Manabe and R.C. Pacanowski. "A Global Ocean Atmosphere Climate Model:
Part II. The Oceanic Circulation."J. Phys. Oceanogr., 5/1 (1975), 30-46.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.T. Wetherald. "The Effects of Doubling the C042554 Concentrationon the Climate of a General Circulation Model." J. Atmos.Sci., 32/1 (1975), 3-15.
Manabe, Syukuro and J.L. Holloway,Jr. "The Seasonal Variationof the Hydrologic Cycle as
Simulated by a Global Model of the Atmosphere." J. Geophys. Res., 80/12 (1975) ,1617-1649.
Manabe, Syukuro. "The Use of ComprehensiveGeneral Circulation Modeling for Studies of
the Climate and Climate Variation."The Physical Basis of Climate and ClimateModeling
Report of the International Study Conference in Stockholm,GARP Publication Series 16(1975), 148-162.
Hahn, Douglas G. and S. Manabe. "The Role of Mountains in the Southeast Asian Monsoon
Circulation."J. Atmos. Sci., 32/8 (1975), 1515-1541.
Wetherald, Richard T. and S. Manabe, "The Effects of Changing the Solar Constant on the
Climate of a General Circulation Model." J. Atmos. Sci., 32/11 (1975), 2044-2059.
Manabe, Syukuro and J.D. Mahlman. "Simulation of Seasonal and Interhemospheric
Variationsin the Stratospheric Circulation." Climate of an Ice Age ." J. Atmos. Sci., 33/11(1976), 2185-2217.

21

Hahn, Douglas G. and S. Manabe. "Reply." J. Atmos.Sci., 33/11 (1976), 2258-2262.
Manabe, Syukuro and D.G. Hahn. "Simulation of the Tropical Climate of an Ice Age." J.
Geophys.Res., 82/27 (1977), 3889-3911.
Manabe, S., K. Bryan and M.J. Spelman. "A Global Ocean-Atmosphere Climate Model with
Seasonal Variation for Future Studies of Climate Sensitivity."Dynamics of Atmospheres
and Oceans., 3 (1979), 393-426.
Hahn, Douglas G. and S. Manabe. "Simulation of Atmospheric Variability." Proc. Fourth
Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Inst. for Environ. Studies, Univ. of Wisconsin(1979), 398-402.
Kurbatkin, G.P., S. Manabe and D.G. Hahn. "The Moistening of Continents and the Intensityof Monsoon Circulation."Meterol. and Hydrol., 11/6 (1979), 5-11.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer. "A CO2 -Climate Sensitive Study with a Mathematical
Model of the Global Climate."Nature., 282 (5738) (1979), 491-4-93.
Manabe, Syukuro, D.G. Hahn and J.L. Holloway, Jr. "Climate Simulations with GFDL
Spectral Models of the Atmosphere:Effect of Spectral Truncation."Proc. JOC Study Conf.
on Climate Models: Performance, Intercomparison and Sensitivity Studies, Wash., D.C.,
edited by W. Lawrence Gates, Garp Publication Series, 22/1 (1979), 41-49.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.T. Wetherald. "On the Horizontal Distribution of Climate Change
Resultingfrom an Increase in CO2Content of the Atmosphere."J. Atmos.Sci., 37/1 (1980),
99-118.
Wetherald, Richard T. and S. Manabe. "Cloud.Cover and Climate Sensitivity."J. Atmos. Sci.,
37/7 (1980), 1485-1510.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer. "Sensitivity of a Global Climate Model to an Increase of
CO2Concentration in the Atmosphere."J. Geophys.Res., 85/C10 (1980), 5529-5554.
—. "Study of Climatic Impacts of CO2 Increase with a Mathematical Model of the Global
Climate." Report from AAAS-DOE Workshop on Environmental and Societal
Consequences of a Possible CO2-Induces Climate Change, Annapolis, MD: Dept. ofEnergy, 1980,127-140.
Wetherald, Richard T. and S. Manabe. "Influence of a Seasonal Variation upon the Sensitivityof a Climate Model." J. Geophys. Res., 86/C2 (1981), 1194-1204.
Manabe, Syukuro, R.T. Wetheraldand R.J. Stouffer."Summer Dryness Due to an Increase of
AtmosphericCO2 Concentration" Climate Change. 3/4 (1981), 336-376.
Manabe, Syukuro and D.G. Hahn. "Simulation of Atmospheric Variability."Mon. Wea.Rev.,
109/11 (1981), 2260-2286.
Bryan, K., F.G. Komro, S. Manabe and M.J. Spelman. "Transient Climate Response to
Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide." Science, 215, (1982), 56-58.
Manabe, Syukuro. "Simulation of Climate by General Circulation Models with Hydrologic
Cycles." In Land Surface Processes in AtmosphericGeneral Circulation Models, edited by
P.S. Eagelson. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1982,19-66.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer. "Seasonal and Latitudinal Variatudinal Variation of theCO2Induced Change in a Climate of an Atmosphere-Mixed Layer Ocean Model." Proc.
DOE Workshop on First Detection of Carbon Dioxide Effects, June 8-10,1981, Harpers

22

Ferry, West Virginia, 1982,79-94.
Manabe, Syukuro. "Comments on Paper—Simulating Seasonal and CO2-Induced Climate
Change with Mathematical Climate Models: Capabilities , Limitations and Prospects by
Michael E. Schlesinger." PrO2 Research Conference and Workshop , Sept. 19-23,1982,
Coolfont, West Virginia, III, 1983,145-159.
— . "Carbon Dioxide and Climate Change." In Advances in Geophysics, 25, Theory of
Climate, edited by Barry Saltzman. New York: Academic Press , 1983,39-84.
Yeh, T.C., R.T. Wetherald and S. Manabe. "A Model Study of the Short-Term Climatic andHydrologic Effects of Sudden Snow-Cover Removal." Mon . Wea. Rev., 111/5 (1983),
1013-1024.
Spelman, M.J. and S. Manabe. "Influence of Oceanic Heat Transport Upon the Sensitivity ofa Model Climate." J. Geophys. Res., 89/C1 (1984), 571-586 .
Yeh, T.C., R.T. Wetherald and S. Manabe. "The Effect of Soil Moisture on the Short-Term
Climatic and Hydrology Change—A Numerical Experiment ." Mon. Wea. Rev., 112/3(1984), 474-490.
Manabe, S. and A.J. Broccoli. "Ice-Age Climate and Continental Ice Sheets: Some
Experiments." Annals of Glaciology, 5 (1984), 100-105 .
—. "Influence of the CLIMAP Ice Sheet on the Climate of a General Circulation Model:
Implications for Milankovitch Theory." In Milankovitch and Climate , Part 2, edited by
A.L. Berger et al. D. Reidel, 1984,789-799.
—. "The Influence of Continental Ice Sheets on the Climate of an Ice Age ." J. Geophys. Res.,
90/C2 (1985), 2167-2190.
Bryan, K. and S. Manabe. "A Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere and the Response to Increasing
Atmospheric CO2." Proceedings of the Liege Colloquium (1984) , World Climate Research
Programme. Coupled-Ocean Atmosphere Models, edited by J .C.J. Nihoul. Amsterdam:
Elsevier, 1984,1-6.
Manabe, S. and R.T. Wetherald. "CO2 and Hydrology." In Advances in Geophysics (28) , A
Climate Dynamics, edited by B. Saltzman. New York: Academic Press , 1985,131-156.
Manabe, Syukuro and K. Bryan, Jr. "CO2-Induced Change in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere
Model and Its Paleoclimatic Implications." J. Geophys. Res ., 90/C11 (1985), 689-707.
Manabe, S. and A.J. Broccoli. "A Comparison of Climate Model Sensitivity with Data fromthe Last Glacial Maximum." J. Atmos. Sci., 42 (1985), 2643-2651 .
Wetherald, R.T. and S. Manabe. "An Investigation of Cloud Cover Change in Response to
Thermal Forcing." Climatic Change, 8 (1986), 5-23.
Manabe, S. and R.T. Wetherald. "Reduction in Summer Soil Wetness Induced by an Increasein Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide." Sciences Magazine, 232 (1986) , 626-628.
Broccoli, A.J. and S. Manabe. "The Influence of Continental Ice , Atmospheric CO2, and Land
Albedo on the Climate of the Last Glacial Maximum ." Climate Dynamics, 1, Berlin:
Springer, 1987,87-99.
Manabe, S. and R.T. Wetherald. "Large Scale Changes of Soil Wetness Induced by an Increasein Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide." J. Atmos. Sci., 44 (1987), 1211-1235 .
Broccoli, A.J. and S. Manabe. "The Effects of the Laurentide Ice Sheet on North American

23

Climate during the Last Glacial Maximum." Geographie Physique et Quaternaire, XLI/2(1987), 291-299.
Wetherald, R.T. and S. Manabe. "Cloud Feedback Processes in a General Circulation Model."J. Atmos.Sci., 45/8 (1988), 1397-1415.
Bryan, K., S. Manabe and M.J. Spelman. "Interhemispheric Asymmetry in the Transient
Response of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to a CO2 Age Forcing. "J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 18/6 (1988), 851-867.
Delworth, T. and S. Manabe. "The Influence of Potential Evaporation on the Variabilities ofSoil Wetness and Climate,."J. Climate, 1/5 (1988), 523-547.
Manabe, S. and R.J. Stouffer. "Two Stable Equilibria of a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere
Model."J. Climate, 2/9 (1989), 841-866.
Delworth, Thomas and S. Manabe. "The Influence of Soil Wetness on Atmospheric
Variability."J. Climate, 2/12 (1989), 1447-1462.
Stouffer, R.J., S. Manabe and K. Bryan. "On the Climate Change Induced by a Gradual
Increase of AtmosphericCarbon Dioxide."Nature, 342 (1989), 660-662.
Manabe, S. and A.J. Broccoli. "Mountains and Arid Climates of Middle Latitudes." Science,
247 (1990), 192-195.
Manabe, S. and T. Delworth. "The Temporal Variability of Soil Wetness and its Impact on
Climate," Climatic Change, 16/2 (1990), 185-192.
Manabe, Syukuro, K. Bryan and M.J. Spelman. "Transient Response of a Global OceanAtmosphere Model to a Doubling of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide." J. Phys. Oceanogr.,
20/5 (1990), 722-749.
Wetherald, R.T. and S. Manabe. "Hydrologic Sensitivity to CO2-Induced Global Warming."
CivilEngineering Practice, 5/1 (1990), 33-36.
Broccoli, A.J. and S. Manabe. "Can Existing Climate Models be Used to Study Anthropogenic
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Climate?" Geophysical Research Letters, 17/11 (1990),
1917-1920.
Wetherald, R.T., V. Ramaswamy and S. Manabe. "A Comparative Study of the Observationsof High Clouds and Simulations by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model." Climate
Dynamics, 5, (1991), 135-143.
Manabe, Syukuro. "Studies of Glacial Climates by Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Models: How
Useful Are Coupled Models?" In Global Change of the Past, edited by R.S. Bradley.
Boulder, CO: UCAR/Officefor InterdisciplinaryEarth Studies, 1989.
Mitchell, J.F.B., S. Manabe, V.Meleshko, and T. Tokioka. "Equilibrium Climate Change and
Its Implications for the Future." In Climate Change, The J.T. Houghton, Scientific
Assessment, edited by J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins, and J.J. Ephraums. Cambridge:
Cambridge University Press, 1990.
Manabe, Syukuro, R.J. Stouffer, M.J. Spelman, and K. Bryan. "Transient Responses of a
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2, Part I:
Annual Mean Response," J. Climate, 4/8 (1991), 785-818.
Manabe, Syukuro, M.J. Spelman, and R.J. Stouffer. "Transient Responses of a Coupled
Ocean-Atmosphere Model to Gradual Changes of Atmospheric CO2, Part II: Seasonal

24Response," J. Climate, 5/2 (1992), 105-126.
Broccoli, A.J. and S. Manabe. "Reply to Comment by L.L. Evans on 'Can Existing Models Be
Used to Study Anthropogenic Changes in Tropical Cyclone Climate?'," Geophys. Res.
Letters, 19/14 (1992), 1525-1526.
Delworth, T.L., S. Manabe, and R.J. Stouffer. "Interdecal Variability of the Thermohaline
Circulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Model." Proc. of the Principal Investigators'
Meeting, Atlantic Climate Change Program, Miami, March 9-11,1992. NOAA Climate
and Global Change Program, Special Report No. 7,1992.
Broccoli, A.J. and S. Manabe. "The Effects of Orography on Midlatitude Northern
Hemisphere Dry Climates," J. Climate, 5111 (1992), 1181-1201.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer. "Reply," J. Climate, 6/1 (1993), 178-179.
Delworth, T.L. and S. Manabe. "Climate Variability and Land Surface Processes ," Advances
in Water Resources, 16 (1993), 3-20.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer. "Century Scale Effects of Increased Atmospheric CO2 on
the Ocean-Atmosphere System," Nature, 364 (6434) (1993), 215-217.
Delworth, T.L, S. Manabe, and R.J. Stouffer. "Interdecal Variability of the Thermohaline
Circulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Model," J. Climate, 6/11(1993), 1993-2011.
Broccoli, A.J. and S. Manabe. "Climate Model Studies of Interactions between Ice Sheets andthe Ocean-Atmosphere System." In Ice in the Climate System, NATO ASI Series, edited by
W.R. Peltier. Berlin: Springer, 1993,271-290.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer. "Multiple-Century Response of a Coupled OceanAtmosphere to an Increase of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide," J. Climate, 7/1 (1994), 5-23.
Manabe, Syukuro, R.J. Stouffer, and M.J. Spelman. "Response of a Coupled OceanAtmosphere Model to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide," AMBIO, 23/1 (1994),
45-49.
Stouffer, R.J., S. Manabe, and K.Y. Vinnikov. "Model Assessment of the Role of Natural
Variability in Recent Global Warming," Nature, 367 (1994), 634-636.
Knutson, T.R. and S. Manabe. "Impact of Increasing CO2 on the Walker Circulation and
ENSO-Like Phenomena in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model." Preprints from 6th
Conference on Climate Variation, Nashville, TN, 23-28 January, 1994. Boston: American
Meteorological Society, 1994.
Knutson, T.R. and S. Manabe. "Impact of Increased CO2 on ENSO-Like Phenomena in a
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model," Geophys. Res. Letters, 21/21 (1994), 2295-2298.
Manabe, Syukuro, R.J. Stouffer, and M.J. Spelman. "Interaction between Polar Climate andGlobal Warming," Fourth Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography, Dallas,
TX, 15-20 January, 1995. Boston: American Meteorological Society, 1995.
Delworth, T.L., S. Manabe, and R.J. Stouffer. "Interannual to Interdecal Variability in a
Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model." Proc. of International Workshop on Numerical
Prediction of Oceanic Conditions, Tokyo, Japan, March 7-11,1995.
Knutson, T.R. and S. Manabe. "Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased
CO2 in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model," J. Climate, 8/9 (1995), 2183-2199.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer. "Simulation of Abrupt Climate Change Induced by25

FreshwaterInput to the North Atlantic Ocean," Nature, 378 (1995) 165-167.
Broccoli, A.J. and S. Manabe, J.F.B. Mitchell, and L. Bengtsson. "Global Climate Change andTropical Cyclones," Bull.Am. Meteor. Soc., 76/11 (1995), 2243-2245.
Wetherald, R.T. and S. Manabe. "The Mechanisms of Summer Dryness Induced by
Greenhouse Warming,"J. Climate, 8/12 (1995), 3096-3108.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer."Low-Frequency Variabilityof Surface Air Temperature
in a 1,000-Year Integration of a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Land Surface Model," J.
Climate, 9/2 (1996), 376-393.
Vinnikov,K.Y.,A. Robock, R.J. Stouffer,and S. Manabe. "VerticalPatterns of Free and Forced
Climate Variations,"Geophys. Res. Letters, 23/14 (1996), 1801-1804.
Knutson, T.R., S. Manabe, and D. Gu. "Simulated ENSO in a Global Coupled OceanAtmosphereModel: Multi-Decal Amplitude Modulation and CO2Sensitivity,"J. Climate,
9/10 (1996).
Manabe, Syukuro."Early Developmentin the Study of GreenhouseWarming: The Emergenceof Climate Models," AMBIO (1997), (in press).
Milly, P.C.D. and S. Manabe. "The Reduction in Summer Soil Wetness Caused by Increased
Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Sensitivity to Change in Plant Rooting Depth," Nature,(1996).
Broccoli, A.J. and S. Manabe. "Mountains and Midlatitude Aridity." In Global Tectonicsand
Climate Change, 1997.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer. "Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Response toFreshwaterInput: Comparison to Younger Dryas Event," J. Paleo-Oceanography, (1997),(in press).
Delworth, T.L., S. Manabe, and R.J. Stouffer. "Multidecal Climate Variability in the Nordic
Seas and Surrounding Regions: A Coupled Model Simulation," Geophys. Res. Letters, 24(1997), 257-260.
Manabe, Syukuro and R.J. Stouffer. "Climate Variability of a Coupled Ocean-AtmosphereLand Surface Model: Implication for the Detection of Global Warming,"Bull.Am. Meteor.
Soc., (1997), (in press).
Haywood, J.M., R.J. Stouffer, R.T. Wetherald, S. Manabe, and V. Ramaswamy. "Transient
Response of a Coupled Model to Estimated Changes in Greenhouse Gases and Sulfate
Concentrations,"Geophys.Res. Letters, (1997), (in press).

26

ProfileInternational

Institute for Environmentand Development(IIED)

History
1971
1972

1974

1975

1976

1980s

1985

1987

1990s

1992

The IIEA (Institutefor Environmental Affairs) was founded by Robert 0. Anderson.
The Institute was a key player in the UN Conference on Human Development.
Barbara Ward highlighted the critical linkage between environment and development and coined the phrase "sustainable development." The Institute changed its
name to IIED, headed by Barbara Ward.
The first IIED symposium was held at the UN World Food Conference. This issued
a declaration that was front-page news on three continents. Global food supply has
been an IIED issue ever since.
IIED and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established an independent information unit, Earthscan, as a way of increasing public awareness of key
global environmental issues and providing accurate environmental information to
key leading media around the world.
IIED played a central role in HABITAT, the first UN Conference on Human
Settlementsin Vancouver.Some 20 years later, in 1996, it was responsible for preparing the officialreport for the second human settlements conference.
By 1980,IIED had established a special role in the international arena. It was linked
closely with three centers of power and influence:the UN agenciesand other international institutions; national governments and their agencies, especially those concerned with environment and development issues; and national and international
NGOs. A major part of IIED's success has been the influence it has had in ensuring
the allocation of more than $50 billion a year in aid by OECD countries.
Togetherwith the World Resources Institute, IIED began producing a biennial World
Resources Report. The Institute started to pursue practical solutions to problems
through its projects.
Our Common Future, the report of the World Commission on Environment andDevelopment led by Norway's prime minister, Mrs. Gro Bruntland, was publishedand publicly acknowledged IIED's leading role. It laid down a "global agenda forchange."National and international problems often require local solutions. IIED thereforepioneered methods that involve local "stakeholders" in developing policies andprocesses that work.
In the run-up to the Earth Summit at Rio, IIED played a significant role in bringing
togetherNGOs and mobilizinginternationalinterest. IIED's preparatory work had an
important impact on the process and eventual shape of UNCED's Agenda 21.

27

1995

Each of IIED's program areas is integrated by cross-cutting themes that include collaborativeresearch and the development of tools for sustainable development. TIED
completed a major research project, "Towards a Sustainable Paper Cycle," for theWorldBusiness Councilfor SustainableDevelopment.Through this, TIEDhas established an approach to working with the private sector.

The IIED is an independent, nonprofit think tank. From its inception, TIED has promoted theconcept of sustainable development and sought to focus attention on the necessity for development in harmony with the natural environment through various projects in the North as wellas the South.
Over the last 25 years, through its research, training, and publishing activities, theInstitute has changed or influenced international programs. It has ensured that many more
local voices are heard in the larger decision-making processes. It has altered the basis by which
we understand environmental problems by emphasizing their environmental and social dimensions. It has shown that, ultimately, solving many so-called global problems really comes
down to making changes locally, and that local people can be empowered to achieve their own
solutions, provided the right institutional framework is in place. There is, though, some way
to go to live up to the ideals that Barbara Ward set out at the Institute's beginnings.
ITED's professional staff presently number over 50. The chairman of IIED' s board is Sir
Martin Holdgate and the executive director is Richard Sandbrook. Support comes from all of
the governments of Western Europe, the EU, foundations, and the international agencies.

28

EssayRio Plus

Five—What

Has Happened

and

Next?

What

Richard Sandbrook
Executive Director, IIED
May1997
Anyonesettingout to give

could well be consideredon and in so many
comparison

a globalplacesresearch

then

with

since

the eventsin Rio in 1992

or both. Thereis so muchone could

absurd.

realities

So all that can be done

now.

Hardlya scientificreportis to attempt

exercise

a

based

on

to be sure.

This paper
as methodicalof progressthat the task seemsof expectations

empirical

assessment

as either a fool, or arrogant

is not the result

research.

of an extensive

It is the impression

nizationthat was very involved

numberof documents

surveythat a groupin the Rio processthat are listed

or anythingthat couldof us have formed

beforeand since.

be consideredat the IIED,

I havean orga-also drawn

on aat the end of this essay.

The Rio process
BeforeRio happened

cus on one levelit was clear that the summit

and a serious

was in many

intergovernmental

process

pushed by a variety of nongovernmental
actors whoenvironmental
damage while the latter had to negotiateorder

to do anything

about

made

it clear that the governmental

But one should

first place.
Brazil.

The same

Rio gave themof impressive
lowedthingsup but muchthatenvironmental

issuesManyinterest

process

can be said of many
every
were

opportunity

were

being

could provide
evidenceof widespreadsome of their own sovereignty
away ingroupswere

was not something
political

to show

said and a few

the Earthsomehelp to finance

The agenda

The former

cir-

it.

not be naive.

to solving

the "bargain"

would

on another.

group"leaders"

in it for the ride all along

andthey took too seriously

in thewho

came

off their environmental

impressive

promisesmade.

in suchbona

Somenumbers

tofides. All sortsof this wasfol-

was not.

But on balance
cal commitment

ways a media/interest

Summitglobalsoughtof climate

in 1992 can be still be seen as a high point

environmentand development

at Rio. This was broadly
change,and support

for all this was calledwith

problems.

that in return

loss, and deforestation

technology,

accelerated

21," a shortenedof "Agenda

wasthe big

the wealthy

development
formof politifailed

for addressing

biodiversity"Agenda

What

world

for the South.
for the21stCentury".

29

Sincefinancingthen,

we have seena globalsustainable

development

has made

it difficult

to carry

Agenda21 into practical

GATT

was completed

world

in whichmarkets

is leadingout the toughpolicyoptions.

very much"globalization"
to morerecession.

in the Southtask of translating

Furthermore,to the disadvantage
or the liberalizationand morecosts;and more and more inequity.

marketfailures.

strainNothing,

Financialhas slippedshortlyof manyof tradeon the externalities
it seems,

cut-backs
down

at homethe OECD's

the broad

meant

that

agenda.

This

recommendations

after Rio the Uruguay

Round

of
of

in the South . Today we have aplace . Competitionforis takingthat are environmentchanges—atleast not whenand social
it comesto

The immediate aftermathThis is not to say no one has tried. Take the Europeans as an example . Immediately after
UNCED, at the Lisbon Summit, the European Council adopted an eight-point plan,of action
to follow it up. The major outputs included action on National Sustainable Development
Strategies and "Round Tables," the Forest Principles, the Climate Plan and Biodiversity. The
Community has ratified the Biodiversity and Climate Conventions, and it has been a major
force behind the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Forests. The Commission
has also submitted annual progress reports to the new Commission on Sustainable
Development (CEC, 1993a; CEC, 1994a;CEC, 1995). More importantly, the Environmental
Council chose to call the Community's Fifth Environmental Action Programme , Towards
Sustainability,as "point of departure for the implementation of Agenda 21 by the Community
and the Member States" (CEC, 1993a). (The Programme had been prepared during the
UNCED process and shares many of the same principles and objectives.)
Unfortunately, what the European Union has been unable to agree upon are thespecifics.These include mechanisms for realizing the ECU3 billion aid pledge for Agenda 21
made at Rio. After the event, the Community and Member States struggled to decide how tomeet its pledge. Questions arose, including what the money should be spent on , how theamount should be divided between the EC and the Member States, what proportion should be"new and additionalreso
urces" and over what period the money should be spent. All attempts
to reach a consensus appear to have stopped and in its report on progress to this year's fifth
anniversary meetings in New York the Commission avoids mention of the ECU3 billion
pledge .
This is not surprising. The world has changed: while we have witnessed the recession
in the OECD so too have we seen the emergence of a new class of "rich" emerging economies.
We did not realize in 1992just how poor the old USSR was (and is); nor did we realize theimpact that the far right would have in the USA on their foreign policy. In 1992 South Africa
was still a divided country and Rwanda still a jewel in the French aid program . Since then, allconfidencein finding solutionsto Africa's "crises" has gone. And the debt of the least well off
continues to haunt them.
But one thing has not changed. The polarity of wealth (withinand between nations) is stillwith us overall and getting worse. We still have a billion livingin absolute poverty, over 30,000
children dying every day from malnutrition and water-bornediseases and so much else besides.

30

Resources . . . no more!
It is little wonder, then, if you ask one of those making a living by speaking for the South, thatyou find great cynicism about the Rio process and just how little it achieved in terms of theNorth-South transfer debate. The promise for an extra ECU3 billion on the table from the EUsoon became insignificant as the whole "aid" frame declined from some $65 billion then tounder $52 billion today. All this will be the cause of much huffing and puffing in 1997 but werethe expectations real in the first place? Sadly no!
For example the African group persuaded themselves at the time that a convention fordeserts was the way to take part in the newly created Global Environment Facility. They weresoon to learn otherwise. The new Convention for drylands is an excellent codification of bestpractice but it is unfinanced. Any idea of reaching the mythical 0.7% of GNP in the OECD foraid demanded by the development set is as out of the question now as it was then. Even the
much-heralded additionality of the Global Environmental Facility has not been without problems in terms of its governance, purpose, and renewal.
An assessment on this broad level is complicated by the shift that is occurring in theinternational institutions themselves. Since 1992 the crisis in the UN has deepened. The USA
has gone on a "rent strike" in that it became deeply in debt to the UN (and still is, although
Clinton has made promises to Cofi Annan, the new Secretary General). Such budget as thereis has been increasingly diverted from development toward peace-keeping. And attempts at
UN reform to reduce waste have been thwarted. The policy is to squeeze until the (UN) "pipssqueak." Thus any evaluation of how well the UN and its family of agencies have done in following up on the Earth Summit are complicated by the general anti-UN environment that hasdeveloped in the OECD and elsewhere. We must hope that the recent signs that things are now
improving, or at least moving, are maintained. But morale in the UN is so low overall that one
gets a strong feeling that no one really cares any more unless there is money on the table.
Since Rio, the UN interagency coordination for the environment (through the task force
on the topic) has improved although the exact role of UNEP, UNDP and the UN Commission
for Sustainable Development (UNCSD) still seem a little confused. The process in the
UNCSD also has been a limited success in so far as it has methodically followed up on Agenda
21 in terms of national reporting and coercion. But this progress has only really concerned theenvironment and environment ministers. The hoped-for integration of the environment into asystem of "sustainable development" has not really happened. The economic powers still meetin the context of the Bretton Woods institutions and do not see the Commission, or perhaps
even the UN, as important.
LocalversusAfter

all of this one must conclude

towardment

globala concerted

if you will. But I would

we tackle

such issues anyway.

ciate that therethat Rio did very little to change

style of development

are no global

onus of proof was shifted

maintainbasedaroundthat the Earth

Summit

It was the event when manysolutionsto the national

at a global

sustainable

was a watershed
governments

to be had to sort out many

away from the supranational

the world

the environment:

cameworldwidelevel

develop-in termsof howat last to appreproblems.

Theand even the local level.

31

Much

of the world

caughtplacing

responsibilities
at the most local level of administrationconsistent
with a result.
At Rio and shortly afterwards,
the UN system also caught up with the idea that therea limit to how muchup with the idea of subsidiarity

the North

Geneva!

Rio and the social

tionalist"

thinking

can pay up for a development

summitat Copenhagenof the 1960s and '70s

place to assess the follow
specifics are to be found.

at Rio, namely

agendaup to the Earthframedwere a much-neededthat had somehow
Summitsurvived

is at the local

the importanceofisin New York andpurgeof the "interna-

to the '90s.

Thuslevel.

is whereThat

the realthe... and what do we measure?
Two years after Rio, my institute (the IIED), was asked to examine the Swedish aid program
against the Rio Declaration of Principles and Agenda 21. In order to break this task down weidentified a series of themes as follows:•

integrationof policies•

concerns
capacities

to deliver•

governance•vision, particularly

the integrationand values

The point

to underpinof giving

the wholethis list is not only to illustrate

many ways the Earth Summit

gave us a new agenda

ification

importantof what many thought

for life on the planet.
sus. And there

governmentsthat are going

withwith IUCN,
that is positive
for there

to the Rio process

is arguable

1992.

However,

doubt

Limitedacted

beforetablesthese

for sustainablefollow-up

forum;

up a guideto report.

beautyexistence

and with such
broad

consen-lines, particularly

development.
IIED

In

It was a cod-a more durable

by so many
along

were many

the international

activities.

of achieving

the scopeof progress.

There

has surveyed

to all the strategy

theprocesses

How far this can be directly

attrib-such processes

beforecontestin handwellthat was Rio, institutionalized

as a spur to progress.

capacities

The real constraint
namelymous

for all developmentdrawn

is muchuted

withoutroundkind of nationalvery comprehensive

go into an evaluation

follow-up

and nationalsomeand, together

on.1 There

downvery impressive

21 processes

60 countries

howthat mustin the business

It had not been written

has been somewith local Agenda

in the CSD,

environmental

results

the sort of factors

OECD

with

to give frameworksof Rio was but also to show

are someof socioeconomic

to progress"capacities."
catch-22.

mobilizeMoreresources,

ning is needed,

comes

There

is a feelingplans

to raiseno resources

all too often

back to the themeat times
capacities,

to mobilizethat ran all throughthe Rio process,that the wholesystemis locked

no capacities

to raiseplans.

conventions.

in the past five years

And while

the planningstage

a certain

into an enor-

Conventions
amounthas been

toof plan-an excusefor'Strategies for National Sustainable Development, IUCN/IIED, published by Earthscan, ISBN 1-85383-193-X.

32

inaction.

Too much
Beforeor water,

we all leap to the international

and who will pay. Internationalof a common

goodor if costs

incurred

convention

illustrated.2

statesand not enoughdoing!
convention

reflexagain

in respectof, say forests

or fish, we ought to have a clear idea of what will be done by way of a convention

is different
interestplanning

and existing

cannotaccords

but they go nowhere
be met.

If the benefits

They

are a way of blurring

if benefits

are also very

foregone

expensive

sovereignty

are not compensatedto negotiate,thatin theforas the deserts

are not very clear from the outset why not rely on nation

processes?

What next?
The Rio process was not the complete waste of time that some cynics allege. It was a complex
affair that will take years to see through. It is a part of a continuum: Stockholm, Brundtland,Rio, Rio +5 and so on . . . gradually as environmental "stress" impacts upon economies and the
public, so things will change for the better. But are we keeping up with the trends in the otherdirection? Many would argue no.
There are many different ways to acceleratechange so as to see more positiveoutcomesin the future. Much the most important are those at the national and the local levels. Thus theso-called "spirit of Rio" will best be maintained by encouraging the local and national
responses that we already see. In this regard much more could be done to acceleratethe sharing of good practice (in all sectors) to identify policies that work and to encourage processes
that result in a clearer set of priorities for action and reform. Transparency and accountability
are the preconditions for consensus dialogue around the priorities, and setting priorities saves
money. As the recent case study of the paper industry by IIED illustrated billions are being
spent in some OECD countries cleaning up emissions that do very little comparative harmwhilst ignoring other more importantsources.3Spending money that at the margin has very little effect is to waste money, no matter who pays (in this case the consumer). This means thatthose who advocate change must be challenged to join in a dialogue on the costs and benefits
and not simply stand outside mobilizingpublic opinion via the media. More multi-stakeholder
processes are needed with the resource to enable civil society to join in mobilization.
The UNCSD process, whereby all this national activity is reported upon, is insufficient.
The UN does not tell the truth; it merely reports what governments ask it to report. Thus westill need an independent system of review and monitoring. The idea of an Amnesty
International for the environment was nearly achieved by the Green Cross and the EarthCouncil. Sadly it did not happen. We need such a referee if we are to take half of what is written seriously. Most countries of the world still do not have a "civil" sector that is capable of
exposing those who are economical with the truth. The need for independent verification ofenvironment and development trends is still evident. If UNEP could begin to facilitate this

2Deserts in Development and Cooperation, Peter Schipuller, DSE no 3/1996, ISSN 0721-2178.
3For example, in the USA, the EPA is busy removing methanol emissions from the paper industry stacks. This will
cost an estimated US$10 billion and more. Why? No one suffers from methanol emissions as far as I know.
IIED/WBCSD "Towards a Sustainable Paper," ISBN 1 899825 40 1.

33

process so much the better, but an alliance of NGOs working with a rejuvenated UNEP would
be more likely to succeed.
At an international level the reform of the UN is the priority. There are any number ofreports and commissions and initiatives to this effect. But those in the Security Council andthose that are powerful within the Bretton Woods institutions have a special role to play. The
follow-up to the development/environment/social
agenda-setting conferences of the last
decade provide the priority. As we approach the millennium surely there is a real opportunity
for the G7 and a wider circle to take the initiative. We need a better process for UN reform thandeath by a thousand cuts and the G7 is in a position to start it. Rio+5 is a chance to start. In 1995
the Commission on Global Governance published their report "Our Global Neighbourhood."4This soon disappeared without trace but it did contain some very thoughtful ideas on UN
reform. For example, the abolition of ECOSOC, the creation of a new economic security council, transforming the trusteeship council into an organ for the global commons and much more.
One important gap to fill is the need for strong countervailing institutions to the economic andtrade organizations (the Bretton Woods family). Trade liberalization and structural adjustment
are going to go very wrong without a balance for social, environmental, and equity issues. The
EU works (just) because it has such checks and balances. Many countries are working out theneeded sense of balance too. But at an international level all we have are weak and nearly bankrupt agencies. In the case of UNEP hope of reform is all but gone. Only governments can stop
the rot.
We should see far greater attention to positive cooperation to reform our lending anddonor institutions toward a common agenda for "sustainability." Redefining the aid agenda toreach those that the market does not reach, toward building capacities in civil society and acting as an investor in global security is a real policy challenge to all involved.
So much is down to leadership. Politicians and senior officials come and go but werarely use their experience wisely in the international system. There is a class of 1992-5 thatis very experienced and that has shown leadership in the follow-up to Rio. It would be good if
the Asahi Glass Foundation could act as host to some of them and work out a way of forming
a useful "club" to carry forward their example to others. One is not suggesting an interferingway (to those in power now and in the future) but as a resource for an increasingly difficult
world that our children face.

'b34

ur Global Neighborhood, published by Oxford University Press

Lecture

IIED'sPost-Earth-Summit

Strategy

Richard Sandbrook, Executive Director, HED
Lloyd Timberlake, HED
SANDBROOK: We have decided to deliver this talk together today. Having come this great
distance, it seems to me we shouldn't waste resources, and therefore we should have a collaborative venture. I'd like to begin by saying what a great honor and a great privilege it is for bothof us to be here. We have, as you realize, a language problem, because we sadly don't speak
the language of the majority of the audience. And so we've tried hard to liaise with the interpreters to ensure that you understand what we're saying. And I'd just like to take this opportunity to very particularly thank the Asahi Glass Foundation for having made us the recipientof its first award. And I'd like to express that on behalf of my colleagues in London, as well.
Generally, the world took a pretty negative view to what went on at the UN conferencein Rio this summer. Most said that the so-called Earth Summit was a failure because it failed
to reach firm agreement with targets for the protection of the atmosphere, for the world's
forests, and for biodiversity. IIED does not subscribe to the view that it was overall a failure,or at least not fully. For us, the preparations and the event itself were full of achievements. A
great number of diplomats and government officials in virtually all of the world's nations spentover two years learning the realities of the globe's environment and development challenges.
Indeed, I've been heard to call Rio the greatest open university course for diplomats that we
could possibly have devised. Heads of state had to develop and express an informed opinion
before they took to the podium in Rio. And many of the achievements have much to offer thatis both hopeful and positive, provided we now follow through.
In giving this lecture on the occasion of the first Blue Planet award, Lloyd and I want toconcentrate on five themes that were well covered in Rio and that now need to be followed up.
First is the need for information and education to the public. Second is the need to think andreform our economics so that it takes better account of the environment, most particularly sothat there are incentives for the long run within the economic framework. Third is the need to
involve the private sector much more deliberately in delivering solutions to our problems.
Fourth is the whole question of how we, in the future, invest in human capacities and humanabilities to cope. And finally, we will be saying something about the community-driven solutions that my institute has spent so much time working with. In fact, all of these themes are
drawn from our experience in recent years and relate to issues on which we will continue to beworking. And this is a wonderful opportunity to share them with you.
But first, let's cast our minds back 20 years, 20 years of environment development activities. Now there's been a remarkable shift in attitudes since the first conference on environment
in 1972. In the 1970s, the environment was not regarded as an important issue by any econo-

35

mists,by businesstrialized

world

leaders,saw environmental

But to many,

Now events

to show

can indeed

Stockholm,

creationof international

wantedto advanceognized

come

which

First,of resource

more than 20 years
realized

whenvery environment
if that progress

reallyTIMBERLAKE:

front,

changelines have moved

early

in this particularand with thefield." Poorer

nations

that of pollution.

Andof whether

or not we rec-have pollution

problems

beforein orderto survive.

anybody

lived

and I must confessto persuade

are and mustat Rio, muchozone

depletion.

from pollution

the offenseof mindset.
15 yearsas

And these

are

we've

many

others,But from

Ward

about

destroy

and development

often apparently

for the environment
the mid-1980s

aroundinand aonward,and Development,

the so-called

Bruntland

write, explained and championed

andto that way of thinking.

Thus, IIED was very active in the work of the World Commission

work here in Tokyo five years ago. The commission's

the
their

of all progress.

have labored,

has at last comea little

Barbarato worrythat they mustthat the concern

be inseparable.

North

we have

was foundedof her time.

to strive for progressis the foundationasregardedof overconsumption.

else, that it was uselessthe worldof the world

now

in the urban

The IIED

ahead

in such deep poverty

which

are not regarded

They'reWe have to, and in fact I believe

And it is pointlessthe environment,

nowadayslaws.

of a type and complexity

is alongside

who was aboutof people

issuescooperation

has been the change

millions

for development

Environment

by internationalago by a woman

this mindset;

consecrated

Japan's

did not come to the first conference
on the issue

warming,of poverty

Now for years IIED,
vain, to change
concernacid rain, global

in the rural South.

destroysplaying

includingonly by national

management

at the time in Stockholm,

environmentthat envi-

has also been key. In

nations

to say that they didn't

that the pollution

But the most importantof Minamata

in Japanwith pollution"levelcountries
to attend

the key pollution

can be solvedon the environmental

to recognize

famousat any price,

issues.

anyway.

and they are global:

Secondthe tragedy
leaders

a role in helping

concerned

almostin the indus-

or quality-of-life

But education

it—theThey refusedhas changed.

problems,

I believe

for the poorest
werethat the communist

problems that can only be tackled
never attempted
before.

to issues

to abate

But they sent messages

world,

Now muchissues,nationsMany

issues.

and this played

environment.

their own development,

East Germany.

end-of-pipe
globalstandardsof value issues,and the businessor progress

The richeston the environment.

in the communist

peopleissue,

politicians.

but life-and-deathand for example

its domesticof development,

also, to rememberin Stockholm

thinking,

be a life-and-death

mentioned.

or by many

only in terms
issues,the Japanesemanaging

the issue

was hardly

it's ironic,

issueshave changed

helpedstart to successfully

case,

diplomats,they are not quality-of-lifehere in Japanronment

international

Commission,

which completed

for
its

final report, which IIED staff helped todevelopment,

which it defined asforms of progress which meet the needs of today, while not compromising

the concept of sustainable

the ability of future

generations
to meet their own needs. This concept gives environmental
resources theirrational and rightful place in human activities. It has also had the effect of drawing into theenvironment

36

and development

debate the economists,

the lawyers, the business people, and thepoliticians who had previously remained uninterested.
It was the Bruntland Commission which in fact called for the holding of an earth summit. It was also the Bruntland Commission which noted that one cannot talk about sustainable
development or environmental management without talking about economic systems, trade,debt, democracy, security issues, and population. All of these issues were either ignored orwere fudged at the Earth Summit in Rio, proving that we're still a long way from a mature andrealistic approach to sustainable development. We're now faced with the problems of defining
the roles of the global environment facility and with the newly formed sustainable development commission. It is far too soon to judge the worth of either.
But despite its shortcomings, Rio was a success in that it was the first major conference
to bring together both the environment and development agendas. One speaker argued that in
the term "environment and development" it's not the word "environment" that is most important, nor is it the word "development" which is most important. But it's the small word "and"which is the most important in that expression. The summit's sheer scale and complexity was
unprecedented and, as such, left most people very bemused. In bringing together the two agendas on such a scale was a great and a positive achievement, much of which was due to effortsof the nongovernmental community. We never thought it was going to be easy.
Also, let us not forget that people—common people, particularly if they are poor people—have always known that their livelihoods ultimately come from nature. But now there's
a widespread consensus on the same point among governments, corporations, diplomats, andmany diverse organizations. The agenda of the poor is rapidly becoming everyone's agenda,
our own agenda. We have to protect and in many cases restore natural stocks and systems if weare to survive economically in the long run. We should not minimize this new widespread
agreement and understanding, nor should we take it for granted. It must be nurtured with a continuing program of public information and education. But to have got this far is progress
indeed.

SANDBROOK: Now a major challenge that remains, of course, is to integrate sound environmental practice with economic planning in order to achieve this notional thing called sustainable development, at least cost and for the greatest number. That process was only justbegun in Rio. The conference set out a vast and complex agenda, a shopping list if you like,for achieving the goal of sustainability, and they called it Agenda 21. Now let me assure you,for those who don't know the UN, Agenda 21 is not a particularly exciting read. But it can becalled a comprehensive document. Never before has the UN attempted to put all of the issues
together in the way that has been achieved in Agenda 21. Nor has it managed to do it with theconsent of so many diverseinterests and cultures. However,Agenda 21 does not list or set priorities. It lists all the things we should do, but it does not put them in any sense of order or time
sequence.
Now, in order to organize priorities—and we have to if the entire UN and international
system is not to collapse under the burden of this shopping list—we have to get involved in thebusiness of politics. But we also believe strongly that politicians need rigorous economic
analysis alongside political process. What are the costs and benefits of various courses of37

action? How are we to translate the many environmental and developmental priorities into
activities with priority for the private sector, nongovernmental organizations (NG0s), and thecommunities, and so on? How are we going to move the rhetoric to action?
The challenge is to integrate economics and the natural applied sciences in order to costand set priorities. And most particularly, to design economic incentives. Economics must be
involved, as regulations, we know, are not enough. And surely economics must be involved inorder that we can set the priorities sensibly. How foolish it is at the moment to spend millionsof dollars in the industrial world to slightly decrease the nitrate concentrations in our drinking
water, while millions more could be saved in the Third World for a mere dollar or two a year.
We have to bring some order to all of this, and we need research and analytical tools to help
provide it. And one of those tools is environmental economics, which TIED has had such ahand in developing. It provides us with a means of organizing economic process around thevery essence of the problem, that of protecting and restoring natural capital.
TIMBERLAKE: Business and industry are crucial in this transformation. But the very mention of business and industry in respect to the environment and development tends to provoke
negative reactions. So many environmental organizations have invested heavily in opposing
the multinational corporations, in blocking much of what they do, and in accusing them ofbeing the main cause for all of our problems. We in TIEDhave had a very different experience.
In the run-up to the Earth Summit in Rio, TIED worked closely with the Business Council for
Sustainable Development, a group of 48 international business leaders, chief executive officers(CEOs), chairmen and chairwomen of boards of companies. Several of these were leaders oflarge Japanese firms. And all worked to offer a business perspective on environment and development issues. We helped them to prepare their 350-page report, called Changing Course,which is now available in Japanese as well as six other languages.
At their first meeting, these business leaders were almost completely overwhelmed by
the complexity and the scientific and economic uncertainty of saying anything intelligent about
the environment. One suggested that they all give up writing a report and simply issue a callfor more research. But as they debated, they realized that sustainable development has its own
inexorable logic, even for and perhaps especially for business. They were all capitalists, andall believed in open competition of the marketplace as the best way to meet the needs of people and to improve technology. But they also realized, and they wrote strongly in their report,that capitalism and markets will ultimately fail unless the system can be made to reflect theenvironmental truth, as well as the economic truth.
You may remember that right before the Earth Summit U.S. President George Bushmade a speech to the nation pledging not to go to Rio and sign any agreements that would hurt
U.S. business competitiveness. At about this time, the U.S. members of the Business Council
met with Bush at the White House and presented him with a copy of the book. And they also
told him frankly that they had come to a conclusion that was precisely the opposite of his own.
They said they felt that those companies and those countries which are not environmentallyclean and efficient are the ones which will suffer the loss of competitiveness. And they offeredPresident Bush several reasons for this opinion. First, they noted customers are demanding38

cleaner

products.

than pay muchto coveringBankslargerclean

are morestringent,companies.

Employees,

especially

responsible

accelerateas science

to rewardthat prevent

are moreyoung

employees

the bright
Environmental

instrumentssuchthe cleanest

companies.

offersmore

evidence

will help

ratherthan hurt corporate

pollutioncompanies

ratheramenable, prefer toare getting everregulations

as taxes,

charges , tradable
permits,or
All of these trends , which will
damage,mean that investmentsof environmental

profitability.

It is the eco-efficientcom-that will emerge more competitive
as these trends
This is also true of eco-efficient
nations. Professor

take hold.
Michael Porter

reported

with the mostrigorous

environmen-of the very products

affectedby those

Schooltal standards

after a global

at homedards.

He mentioned

icals,

plastics,

froma deficiency

to moveural

corporations.

and new economic

will continue

paniesto companies

later on. Insurance

rewardingin eco-efficiency

to lendfor clean-up

work for environmentallymorewillingamountswhich

study that it was the nation

often led in the exports

the successandthe paintof Germany

industriesof raw materials.

from a linear throughput

world,

blessing

then

it becomesin disguise.

than many

Japan,of its rivals.

and of Japan,

in the United

and also the successStates.

And as the 20th century
systemobvious

towardthat

It uses less energy,tion processes.

This not only creates

ated a profitableline of efficientdraws

less water,which

has sufferedand industry

tries

system , as in the natresources
was in part aof natural

Council,less resources

are highly

equipment,

stan-of the chem-

historicallyto a close

Business

recyclingof the Businessproducts

production

Japana more circular

this deficiency

to use the language

at Harvard

is morein generalcompetitive,which

eco-efficientin its produc-

but it also has cre-

the rest of the world

will needmore and more.
I knowstagesthatthe privateof its progress

industry

towardwill determine

future.

Governments

and services

sector—businesssustainability.

more

than

any otherand not-for-profit

neededfor the relief

so coherentlyof povertyin Agenda

sectororganizations

water? The private sector. Who supplies'Businessand industry. The entrepreneur
expressed

and industry—is

But I also know

only

the conditionsof businessof our common

such as our own do not deliver

and the provisionof basicfood?

sector.

hasin the first fumblingthat the operations

The

a vitalprivaterole

21. It is time that many

to playmoreneeds . Whobuildsin providing

globalthe goods
supplieshouses?

Whocooperated

andthe needs

with businessandindustry.
But to move
mediaries

this forward,

worldwide,

Another

includingstep is to ensure

low-impact
transfer,in the developing

so that the cut and thrust of the market

and the rural poor. Foundations
recordparticularly

sponsoredthat of the Asahi

and environmentallyor technology

efficientcooperation,

can be meshedby the corporate
Glassthat the large companies

Foundation,

Success

we need a series of inter-with realities

giantsof both the urban

are a start. Just look at their
whichhelp the medium

technologies.

will involveworld,

bringsus hereand small to develop
in this challenge

new sorts of partnerships

betweentoday .
and useof technology
businessandgovernment.
The whole process
tainable development
assistance.

of development
assistanceor aid needs to be turned into susWe must stop dumping
unwantedgrain and unwantedtech-nologiesand instead

help businesswith communities

building

upon

the poorer

nations,ogy and to form a partnershiptransfer

more eco-efficienttechnol-

their own development.

39

SANDBROOK:
Corporate leadership is needed to take on these issues. And we also ofcourse need more corporate involvement in community problems. In the past, the corporate
sector has demonstrated they can do this, particularly with respect to education and certainsocial needs. I believe it is now the turn of the environment and development agenda to get thecooperation of the business community. The Rio conference embraced the market approach,and in return the leaders of the market approach must embrace the needs of the environment
and the poor.
Two statistics taken together offer the greatest challenge to sustainability. The first is that
20% of the planet's population use 80% of the planet's resources, leaving the poorer 80% of
the people to make do with a mere fifth of the resource base. Now add to that fact the fact thatover 90% of all future population growth is suggested to be taking place in the poorer
economies, and you can see the problem. Obviously, for business to play a positive role in ourcommon future it must develop ways of turning the needs of the poorest into markets in order
to meet those needs, and it must rely less and less on creating artificial needs for luxury products through advertising and the like among the shrinking proportion of the world's populationthat is in the North. This makes good development sense and good business sense. We have tostart using the business sector to solve the development problem.
Now having talked of the capabilities of business leaders, I want to widen the topic tohuman capacities in general. So often, large parts of the world simply lack the necessary
human skills and the institutions and the organizations required to do the job. The Rio summit
recognized that we need to build capacities, human capacities, and this implies skill and training transfer. It takes time to build up the capacities of organizations and managements. In otherwords, we're in for a long haul. Our idea itself has taken 20 years to get where it's got to, andwe have still a long way to go.
Now sadly, worldwide we see far too little investment in building human capital, farmore diverted to laying down concrete and building physical capital. Rio makes some very
optimistic assumptions about our collective ability to manage the world's natural resource
base, yet most government administrations are very, very weak and poor at setting and sticking to the sort of long-term policies needed to manage those resources. This is not only true forpoorer nations, where most people's lives are directly related to the natural resource stock, but
it is also true of the rich nations. The United States, with its wealth of management skills, isfinding it difficult to effectively manage its water and its timber. The United Kingdom, a small
and crowded island which I come from, still gets rid of 80% of its waste by ill-planned land
use for reasons that are quite beyond me. My own government still declines to invest in public transport systems, so that business in the city becomes less and less possible as London
comes to a grinding halt daily. So in other words, both rich and poor have much to learn in coping for the long-term future in the planning sense.
Cities, particularly in the South, are expanding with little guidance or planning at all.
The directions of growth are chosen mainly by the poorest people when they choose the illegal and dangerous bits of ground on which to site their shanties. And despite this obvious truth,
the national governments are loathe to provide city governments with the funds they need todevelop. Local government is a really underinvested sector everywhere. And governments

40

which claim to be encouraging economic development in the countryside still of course practice policies which encourage people to move from the country to the city by assuring the besteducation, health care, and job opportunities there, and of course subsidies and all manner ofother goods and services.
Our economic systems expand and accelerate haphazardly, consuming natural
resources and pushing out pollutants. Again, too few are involved in energy and water management, in recycling resources, in conserving of lands. The whole problem needs to beaddressed. How do we manage these economies better? One has to marvel at the skill and thepersistence of the poor, who cope with all the uncertainty and all the chaos that makes up theireveryday lives. I believe as things get worse mostly due to population increases and the added
environmental stress that will bring, the poor will be less and less able to cope. And we should
recognize that now. Unless we improve management capacities to put all the fine ideas of Rio
into practice, we're merely indulging in cheap talk.
For example, the national sustainable development plans called for in Rio by all the governments demand a very high level of informed and integrated planning techniques. We haveto invest now in exactly those techniques if we're going to bring the ideas of Rio into reality
and make them available in application. So human capacity building is another of the priorities of IIED.

TIMBERLAKE: We'd like to turn now to those at the bottom of the international ladder, thevery poor and the rural and urban communities in which they live. IIED believes in a community-drivenbottom-up development,which is enabled and empowered by top-down processes
and frameworks. It is where we now do more than 50% of our work in terms of staff time. Our
efforts in this area come under the heading of primary environmental care, or PEC. PEC isbased on three very simple concepts: empowering communities, meeting basic needs, andsafeguardingthe environment.The Rio conference and Agenda 21 had much to say on all three
items and on the importance of community-driven approaches in general. This was a triumphfor the advocates of this approach.
Yet how many countries, really, enable and empower their citizens to look after themselves? How many can claim to be decentralizing government, establishing equitable landholdings, establishing open and participatory methods of planning, and improving the lot of
women? And how many can rightly claim to be giving incentives to the poor over the longer
term? The Bruntland Commission concluded that the first prerequisite for development was,and I quote, "a political system based on effective citizenship participation in decisionmaking." This participation must exist at the national level, at the village level, and at various
levels in between. The commission also declared that people, individuals, and people's groups
had a right to participate in decisions, a right to information about their environments, and aright to redress in cases of environmentaldamage not of their own doing. The reason for theserights have nothing to do with human rights, but are practical. For it's the poorest people—
which are the majority in most developing countries—who are the real environmental decision-makers. It is they who decide each day which tree to cut, how many sheep to graze in agiven field, or in cities, how to dispose of the family's waste.

41

IIED has had much

experiencetems of empowering

the poorronmental

base,resource

We've

made

nations,

for we can actually

can be turned
water

by giving

into productive
supplied.

more

simplepopulardemonstrateworld

knowledgeof their environment

with themamong

at this level. We've

to better

results

regenerated,
By givingis all this done?
and rewards

and straightforward,

commitment

and an attitudeof mindAnd I should

add that this approachfor their efforts,
but making

that is centeredbarrenpeopleis also the linchpin

those

it happen

resources.

the poor.

land madethe right

takes

Deserts

productive,

to organize,

and by providing

on the belief

sys-of the industrializedof empoweringland, trees and forests

createdand their envi-

managethe big aid agencies

the positiveHow

giving them a stake in their futureknowledgeof their environment.
It all sounds

themand then by working

this approachand housing

in the developingthemwith apersistencein people

and theirof any entrepreneurial

society.

byandculture.

SANDBROOK: Now I want to close with one perhaps slightly philosophical thought about
this concept of sustainable development. We in IIED have been focusing in the past on thepractical and pragmatic reasons why governments, why industry and business, and ordinary
people should pursue this goal. But the concept has one very serious flaw, and that lies in thefact that ultimately it is based on our concern for future generations and for our children andtheir children. Indeed, it is also based on concern for the needs of the present, but it's basically
about the future. Let's be frank: we in the industrial world have managed to get along quite
happily in a world in which a billion people live in abject poverty. Their plight doesn't reallyaffectus very much, and it certainly doesn't seem to affect our economic decisions or our political decisions very much.
Can we show a more serious practical concerns for the needs of future generations? I
wonder.We have no institutions championing the needs of future generations, or working forintergenerational equity, a concept which transfers resources from one to the next. Our mostsophisticateddemocraticgovernmentsare guided by the decisions of those who vote today, notof those who will be voting in the next century.We havebusinesses, in fact our entire economic
system follows the lead of the money market and the consumers who live today, not those yet
to be born. So isn't it all rather idealisticto think that we can move to suddenly consider intergenerational questions?
Perhaps the sort of revolution required is actually impossible. That could be. But there
have in the past been huge major changes which were seen to be impossible before. And they
were not, of course, led by governments, and they were not really led by the very poor or the
dispossessed.These changes were usually led by well-informed people, reasonably well off,working in small groups creating a fuss. And they usually accomplished what they accomplished in the face of all expert advice. Accepted wisdom some while back was that in slaveowningregions of the world, the abolition of slaverywould completelyruin the market system.
Later, the same was said of child labor: if you destroy child labor, you will ruin our economic
system. And of course there were plenty who resisted anything being done in the industrialized world to look after the most vulnerable.
Today, we're often told, occasionally by people who are referred to as world leaders,

42

that

we cannot

respect

possibly

environmental

to moreand human

We have to wait before
I wouldmove

equitable

realities,

without

we can start looking

put it all very differently.

we do look after the divisions

Globalwhichpatterns
destroying

after the Third
security

currently

of development,

our own Northern

World,

which

economies.

wait for better times.

will only be achieved

face us in terms

patterns

In fact,

and maintainedof equity.

A world

whenof 10 billion

people will not be stable if it is split between the haves and have nots, between those who havea voice and those who do not, between green fields on the one hand and deserts on the other.
We muststart to build

sustainable

development.

TIMBERLAKE:

now a new concept

The final verdict

it was a success,we cannot

tion. We believe

firmlyupon positively.

IIEDwant to help,

and I really

ics to take betteron the Earthsay it was a failure.

that the future
intends

account

in humancapacities;

and to reinforce

academics

work

to informof the planet

we will see an insecure,and industry,

withinintroverted,

I cannotWard was fondclose without
Glassechoing

Foundation

on five key points.

incentives

to reform

for moving

in deliveringsolutions.

our own lifetimes.

NGOs,

to the problemsof poverty

If we do not work
protectionist,

than this. We have a duty-to

to all of you for coming
and this occasion

andwith commitment

and besieged

we also have a duty to hope.

the award

to invest

If governments,

betterour thanksWe

economin the rightsolutions;of saying,for makingsayof Rio can be acted

the public;

we will see answers

rich and poor. We owe our children

and to the Asahi

and educate

We cannot

it was a start in the right direc-

if the achievements

community-driven

in this direction,in these

As Barbara

we will not achieve

has yet to be given.

and to provide

sector, businessand the protection

their children.

Otherwise,

But we do knowof the environment,

the private

contrasted

Summitwill be brighter

to help,

to involvefor policies

security.

to bee-a part of that future by concentrating

mean

direction;

directions,of global

world

them

of

and toto listen

to us today,

possible.

Thank

you

very much.

43

Major Publications
IIED

Human Settlements Programme
Satterthwaite, David, Roger Hart, Caren Levy, Diana Mitlin, David Ross, Jac Smit, andCarolyn Stephens. The Environmentfor Children, 1996.
Hardoy, Jorge E., Diana Mitlin, and David Satterthwaite. Environmental Problems in Third
WorldCities, 1993.
Mitlin, Diana and David Satterthwaite.Sustainable Development and Cities, 1994.
IIED. Sustainable Cities, 1992.
IIED. Sustainable Development and the Global Commons— a Third World Re-assessment,
1992.
Arrossi, Silvina, Felix Bombarolo, Jorge E. Hardoy,Diana Mitlin, Luis P. Coscio, and David
Satterthwaite.Funding CommunityInitiatives, 1994.
IIED. Funding CommunityLevel Initiatives, 1993.
Patel, Sheela. SPARCand its work with National SlumDwellers Federation and Mahila Milan,
India, 1996.
Schusterman, Ricardo, and Ana Hardoy. Reconstructing Social Capital in a Poor Urban
Settlement: The Integrated ImprovementProgramme, Barrio San Jorge, 1996.
OPP Research and Training Institute. The Orangi Pilot Project, Pakistan, 1996.
Boonyabancha,Somsook. The Urban CommunityDevelopment Office,Thailand, 1996.
Cabannes, Yves. From CommunityDevelopmentto Housing Finance: From Mutiroes to Casa
Melhor in Fortaleza, Brazil, 1996.
Stein, Alfredo. Decentralization and Urban PovertyReduction in Nicaragua: The Experienceof the Local DevelopmentProgramme (PRODEL), 1996.
Ortiz, Enrique. FONHAPO: TheExperience of the National Fund for LowIncome Housing in
Mexico, 1996.
Albee, Alana and Nandasiri Gamage. Our Money; Our Movement (case study of the Women'sCredit Union in Sri Lanka), 1996.
Satterthwaite,David. Urban Poverty: Reconsidering its Scale and Nature, 1996.
Mitlin, Diana. Reaching Low-IncomeGroups with Housing Finance, 1996.
Mitlin, Diana and David Satterthwaite. City-based Funds for CommunityInitiatives, 1996.
IIED. Urban Poverty: characteristics, causes and consequences, 1995.
IIED. Urban Poverty II: From understanding to action, 1995.
Atkinson, Sarah J., and Alfred Merkle. Urban Health in Africa, 1994.
IIED. Health and Wellbeingin Cities, 1993.
Mitlin, Diana. (ed.) Housing Finance and Resource Mobilization. WorkshopReport: 5-8 May
1996, South Africa, 1996.
Leckie, Scott. From Housing Needs to Housing Rights: An Analysis of the Right to Adequate
Housing Under Human Rights Law, 1992.
IIED. RRANotes 21: Special issue on participatory tools and methods in urban areas, 1995.

44

Satterthwaite, David. The Scale and Nature of Urban Change in the South, 1996.
Arrossi, Silvina, Felix Bombarolo, Jorge E. Hardoy, Diana Mitlin, Luis P. Coscio, and David
Satterthwaite. Financiamiento de iniciativas communitarias, 1993.
Pirez, Pedro, Claudio Minoliti, and Marcos Novaro. Municipio, necesidades sociales y politica
local, 1991.
del Carmen Feijoo, Maria, and Hilda Maria Herzer. (eds.) Las murjeres y la vida de las ciudades, 1991.
Hardoy, Jorge E., and Richard Morse. (comps.) Repensando la ciudad de America Latina,
1992.

Environmental Planning Group
Dalal-Clayton, Barry. Getting to Grips with Green Plans: Recent Experience in Industrial
Countries, 1996.
Dalal-Clayton, Barry. Great Expectations? Green Planning in Industrial Countries.
(EnvironmentalPlanning Issues Series No. 10.) 1996.
Hughes, Ross and Barry Dalal-Clayton.Participation in EnvironmentalImpact Assessment:A
Reviewof Issues. (EnvironmentalPlanning Issues Series No. 11.) 1997.
Koziell, I. and H. Sosovele.A Review of District-level Environmental Initiatives in Tanzania.
(EnvironmentalPlanning Issues Series No. 12.) 1997.
Dalal-Clayton, Barry. Southern Africa Beyond the Millenium: Environmental Trends andScenarios to 2015. (EnvironmentalPlanning Issues Series No. 13.) 1997.
Leader-Williams, N., J.A. Kayera, and G.L. Overton. (eds.) Mining in Protected Areas in
Tanzania: Proceedings of a WorkshopHeld in March. 1994. (Wildlifeand Development
Series No. 9.) 1996..
Roe, Dilys, Nigel Leader-Williams, and Barry Dalal-Clayton. The Environmental Effects ofWildlifeTourism:An Overview (Wildlifeand DevelopmentSeries No. 10.) 1997.
Mwalyosi,Raphael, Ross Hughes, and Bryan Spooner. EIA in Tanzania: An Introductory andTraining Resource Manual, 1997.
Mwalyosi, Raphael, Ross Hughes, and Bryan Spooner. EIA in Tanzania: An Orientation
Training and Resource Manual, 1997.
Mwalyosi, Raphael, Ross Hughes, and Bryan Spooner. EIA in Tanzania: A Training andResource Manual for EIA Review, 1997.
Carew-Reid, Jeremy, Robert Prescott-Allen, Stephen Bass, and Barry Dalal-Clayton.
Strategies for National Sustainable Development: A Handbook for their Planning and
Implementation, 1994.
Dent, D.L., and L.K.P.A.Goonewardene.ResourceAssessment and Land Use Planning in Sri
Lanka: A Case Study. (EnvironmentalPlanning Issues Series 4.) 1993.
Bass, Stephen, Barry Dalai-Clayton, and Jules Pretty. Participation in Strategies for
Sustainable Development.(EnvironmentalPlanning Issues Series No. 7.) 1995.
Bass, Stephen and Barry Dalal-Clayton. Small Island States and Sustainable Development:
Strategic Issues and Experience. (EnvironmentalPlanning Issues Series No. 8.) 1995.
Dalal-Clayton,Barry and Barry Sadler.Strategic EnvironmentalAssessment:A Briefing Paper,45

1995.
Stone, Paula, and Barry Dalal-Clayton. (eds.) EnvironmentalSynopses (prepared by IIEDfor
the Overseas DevelopmentAdministration). Ghana 1992; Indonesia 1994; Pakistan 1992;
Sri Lanka 1992; Uganda 1992;Zimbabwe 1992.
Hughes Ross, Shapan Adnan, and Barry Dalal-Clayton. Flood Plains or Flood Plans?: A
Reviewof Approaches to WaterManagement in Bangladesh, 1994.
Roe, Dilys, Barry Dalal-Clayton, and Ross Hughes. A Directory of Impact Assessment
Guidelines, 1995.
IIED. WhoseEden?: An Overviewof CommunityApproaches to WildlifeManagement, 1994.
IIED. The CampfirePapers, 1996.
Dalal-Clayton, B. Modified EIA and Indicators of Sustainability: First Steps Towards
Sustainability Analysis. (EnvironmentalPlanning Series No. 1.) 1993.
Dalal-Clayton, B. and D. Dent. Surveys, Plans and People: A Review of Land Resource
Information and its Use in Developing Countries. (EnvironmentalPlanning Issues SeriesNo. 2.) 1993.
Kauzeni, A.S., I.S. Kikula, S.A. Mohamed, J.G. Lyimo, and B. Dalal-Clayton. Resource
Assessmentand Land Use Planning in Tanzania: A Case Study. (EnvironmentalPlanning
Issue Series No. 3.) 1993.
Dalal-Clayton,B., S. Bass, B. Sadler,K. Thomson, R. Sandbrook, N. Robins, and R. Hughes.
National Sustainable DevelopmentStrategies: Experience and Dilemmas. (Environmental
Planning Issues Series No. 6.) 1994.
Mwalyosi,R., S. Mohamed, R. Hughes, and B. Dalal-Clayton. EnvironmentalAssessment in
Tanzania:A needs Assessmentfor Training. (EnvironmentalPlanning Series No. 9.) 1995.
Forestry and Land Use Programme
IIED and the World Conservation Monitoring Centre. Forest Resource Accounting: Strategic
Informationfor Sustainable Forest Management, 1996.
Keogh, Raymond. Teak2000: A ConsortiumSupport Modelfor greatly increasing the contribution of quality tropical hardwoodplantations to sustainable development.(Forestry andLand Use Series No. 9.) 1996.
Mayers, James, Caroline Howard, E. Nii Ashie Kotey, Edward Prah, and Michael Richards.
Incentivesfor Sustainable Forest Management: A Studyin Ghana. (Forestry and Land Use
Series. No. 6.) 1996.
Mayers, James and E. Nii Ashie Kotey. Local Institutions and Adaptive Forest Managementin Ghana. (Forestry and Land Use Series. No. 7.) 1996.
Upton, Christopher and Stephen Bass. The Forest Certification Handbook, 1995.
Mayers, James, and Basil Peutalo. NGOs in the Forest: Participation of NGOs in National
Forestry Action Programmes: New Experience in Papua New Guinea. (Forestry and Land
Use Series No. 8.) 1995.
Mayers, James, Basil Peutalo, and Meera Kaul Shah. (eds.) Adapting Toolsfor Local Forest
Management, 1994.
Bass, Stephen and Elaine Morrison. Shifting Cultivation in Thailand, Laos and Vietnam:

46

Regional Overview and Policy Recommendations. (Forestry and Land Use Series No. 2.)
1994.
Dinh Sam, Do. Shifting Cultivation in Vietnam: its Social, Economic and Environmental
Values relative to Alternative Land Use. (Forestry and Land Use Series No. 3.) 1994.
Rerkasem, Kanok and Benjavan Rerkasem. Shifting Cultivation in Thailand: its Current
Situation and Dynamics in the Context of Highland Development. (Forestry and Land Use
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Souvanthong, Pheng. Shifting Cultivation in Lao PDR: an Overview of Land Use and Policy
Initiatives. (Forestry and Land Use Series No. 5.) 1995.
Sargent, Caroline and Stephen Bass. (eds.) Plantation Politics: Forest Plantations in
Development, 1992.
Sargent, Caroline, John Palmer, and Elaine Morrison. (eds.) Proceedings of the National
Seminar on Setting Priorities for Research in the Land Use Continuum in Vietnam. Hoa
Binh, September 1991, 1991.
Howard, Caroline. (ed.) Current Land Use in Vietnam. Proceedings of the Second Land Use
Seminar, Bac Thai, Vietnam. September 1994, 1995.
Howlett. D. and Caroline Sargent. (eds.) Technical Workshop to Explore Options for Global
Forestry Management. Bangkok 1991. Proceedings, 1991.
Oksanen, Tapani, Matts Heering, and Bruce Cabarle. A Study on Coordination in Sustainable
Forestry Development, 1993.

Sustainable Agriculture Programme
Pretty, Jules N., Irene Guijt, Ian Scoones, and John Thompson. A Trainer's Guide forParticipatory Learning and Action, 1995.
Murray Bradley, Sarah. How People Use Pictures: An Annotated Bibliography and Reviewfor
Development Workers, 1995.
Messerschmidt, Donald A. Rapid Appraisal for Community Forestry: The RA Process and
Rapid Diagnostic Tools, 1995.
Guijt, Irene, Andreas Fuglesang, and Tony Kisadha. (eds.) It is the YoungTrees That Make a
Thick Forest: A Report on Redd Barna's Learning Experiences with Participatory Rural
Appraisal in Kyakatebe, Uganda, 1994.
Thompson, John, Jafar Shah, and Erhard Foellmi. (eds.) Planning for a Change: Participatory
Rural Appraisal for Community-BasedDevelopment, 1994.
Guijt, Irene and Koos Neefjes. (eds.) Tenicas de Communicac-do Para Extensionistas:
Relatorio dum Semindrio em Diagnostic° Rural (Rapido) Participativo Santo Antdo, Cape
Verde, 1991.
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Province, Ethiopia (1), 1991.
PLA. PLANotes 27: October 1996. Participation, Policy and Institutionalisation, 1996.
PLA. PLANotes 26: June 1996, 1996.
PLA. PLA Notes 25: February 1996. Includes a special issue on children's participation,
1996.

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PLA. PLANotes 24: October 1995. Critical Reflectionsfrom Practice, 1995.
PLA. PLA Notes 23: June 1995. Includes section on participatory approaches to HIV/AIDS
programmes, 1995.
PLA. PLANotes 22: February 1995, 1995.
PLA. RRANotes 21: November 1994. Special Issue: Participatory tools and methods in urban
areas, 1994.
PLA. RRANotes 20: April 1994. Special Issue: Livestock,1994.
PLA. RRANotes 19: February 1994. Special Issue: Training, 1994.
PLA. RRANotes 18: June 1993, 1993.
PLA. RRANotes 17: March 1993, 1993.
PLA. RRANotes 16: July 1992. Special Issue: Applicationfor Health, 1992.
PLA. RRANotes 15: May 1992. Special Issue: WealthRanking, 1992.
PLA. RRANotes 14: December 1991, 1991.
PLA. RRA Notes 13: August 1991. Proceedings of the February 1991 Bangalore PRA
Trainers' workshop, HED/MYRADA,1991.
PLA. RRANotes 12: July 1991, 1991.
PLA. RRANotes 11: May 1991. Special Issue: Proceedings of joint LIEDand Development
Administration Group (University of Birmingham), Local Level Adaptive Planning
Workshop,London, 1991.
PLA. RRANotes 10: February 1991, 1991.
Kerr, John, N.K. Sanghi, and G. Sriramappa. Subsidies in watershed developmentprojects in
India: distortions and opportunities, 1996.
Pretty, Jules N., John Thompson, and Fiona Hinchcliffe.Sustainable Agriculture: Impacts onfood production and challengesfor food security, 1996.
Harris, Frances. Intensification of Agriculture in Semi-arid Areas: Lessons from the Kano
Close-settledzone, Nigeria, 1996.
Pretty, Jules N. Regenerating Agriculture, 1995.
Scoones, Ian and John Thompson. (eds.) Beyond Farmer First, 1994.
Pretty, Jules N. and Rupert Howes. Sustainable Agriculture in Britain: Recent Achievements
and NewPolicy Challenges, 1993.
Conway, Gordon and Jules N. Pretty. UnwelcomeHarvest. Agriculture and Pollution, 1991.
Kerr,John, N.K. Sanghi, and G. Srirampappa. Subsidies in watershed developmentprojects in
India: distortions and opportunities. (Gatekeeper Series SA61.) 1996.
Pretty, Jules N., John Thompson, and Fiona Hinchcliffe. Sustainable Agriculture: Impacts onfood production and challengesfor food security. (Gatekeeper Series SA 60.) 1996.
Harris, Frances. Intensification of Agriculture in Semi-arid Areas: Lessons from the Kano
Close-settled zone, Nigeria. (Gatekeeper Series SA 59.) 1996.
Starkey, P. Networkingfor Sustainable Agriculture: Lessons from animal traction development. (Gatekeeper Series SA58.) 1996.
Sinha, S. The Conditions for Collective Action: Land tenure and farmers' groups in the
Rajasthan Canal Project. (Gatekeeper Series SA 57.) 1996.
Bentley, J. and K. Andrews. Through the Roadblocks: IPM and Central American smallhold-48

ers. (Gatekeeper Series SA56.) 1996.
Bunch, R. and Lopez. Soil Recuperation in Central America: Sustaining innovation after
intervention.(Gatekeeper Series SA 55.) 1995.
Zwarteveen, M. Linking Womento the Main Canal: Gender and irrigation management.
(Gatekeeper Series SA54.) 1995.
Cousins, B. A Rolefor CommonProperty Institutions in Land Redistribution Programmes inSouthAfrica. (Gatekeeper Series SA 53.) 1995.
Grimble, R., M-K. Chan, J. Aglionby, and J. Quan. Trees and Trade-offs: A Stakeholder
Approach to Natural Resource Management. (Gatekeeper Series SA 52.) 1995.
Sperling, L. and U. Scheidegger.Participatory Selection of Beans in Rwanda: Results, methods and institutionalised issues. (Gatekeeper Series SA51.) 1995.
Hinchcliffe, F., I. Guijt, J.N. Pretty, and P. Shah. New Horizons: The Economic, Social andEnvironmentalImpacts of Participatory WatershedDevelopment. (Gatekeeper Series SA50.) 1995.
Cleaver, F. and D. Elson. Marginalisation of Women in Water Resource Management.
(Gatekeeper Series SA49.) 1995.
Osborn, T. Participatory Agricultural Extension: Experiencesfrom WestAfrica. (Gatekeeper
Series SA 48.) 1995.
Swallow, B. TheRole of Mobility Withinthe Risk Management Strategies of Pastoralists andAgro-Pastoralists. (Gatekeeper Series SA47.) 1994.
Rosett, P. and M. Benjamin. TwoSteps Back, One Step Forward: Cuba's National Policy for
AlternativeAgriculture. (Gatekeeper Series SA46.) 1994.
Tiffen, M., M. Mortimore, and F. Gichuki. Population Growth and Environmental Recovery:
Policy Lessonsfrom Kenya. (Gatekeeper Series SA45.) 1994.
Fujisaka, S. Will Farmer Participatory Research Survive in the International Agricultural
Research Centres? (Gatekeeper Series SA44) 1994.
Farringon J. and A. Bebbington. From Research to Innovation: Getting the Most fromInteraction with NGOs in Farming SystemsResearch and Extension. (Gatekeeper Series
SA43.) 1994.
Campbell, A. CommunityFirst - Landcare in Australia. (Gatekeeper Series SA 42.) 1994.
Hoogerbrugge, I. And L. Fresco. Homegarden Systems: Agricultural Characteristics andChallenges. (Gatekeeper Series SA39.) 1993.
Gill, G. O.K., The Data's Lousy, But It's All We've Got (Being a Critique of Conventional
Methods). (Gatekeeper Series SA38.) 1993.
Powell, J., and T. Williams. Livestock,Nutrient Cycling and Sustainable Agriculture in the
WestAfrican Sahel. (Gatekeeper Series SA 37.) 1993.
Murphree, M. Communitiesas ResourceManagement Institutions. (Gatekeeper SeriesSA 36.)
1993.
Fowler,A. Prioritizing Institutional Development:A New Rolefor NGO Centresfor Studyand
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Kerr,J. and N. Sanghi. Indigenous Soil and Water Conservation in India's Semi-AridTropics.
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Hyman, E. Local Agro-Processing with Sustainable Technology: Sunflowerseed Oil in
Tanzania.(Gatekeeper Series SA 33.) 1992.
Ibrahim, Mamman A. The Information Drain: Obstacles to Research in Africa. (Gatekeeper
Series SA32.) 1992.
Uphoff, N. Local Institutions and Participation for Sustainable Development. (Gatekeeper
Series SA31.) 1992.
Haugerud, A. and M. Collinson. Plants, Genes and People: Improving the Relevance of Plant
Breeding. (Gatekeeper Series SA 30.) 1991.
Pimbert, M. Designing Integrated Pest Managementfor Sustainable and Productive Futures.
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Arnold J. TreeProducts in Agroecosystems:Economic and Policy Issues. (Gatekeeper Series
SA 28.) 1991.
Reij, C. Indigenous Soil and WaterConservation in Africa. (Gatekeeper Series SA27.) 1991.
Bebbington, A. Farmer Organisations in Ecuador: Contributions to Farmer First Researchand Development.(Gatekeeper Series SA26.) 1991.
Gaventa, J. and H. Lewis. Participatory Education and Grassroots Development: The Case of
Rural Appalachia. (Gatekeeper Series SA 25.) 1991.
Jodha, N. Rural CommonProperty Resources: A Growing Crisis. (Gatekeeper Series SA24.)
1991.
Chambers, R., M. Leach, and C. Conroy. Treesas Savings and Securityfor the Rural Poor (2ndedition). (Gatekeeper Series SA 3.) 1993.
Guijt, Irene, Fiona Hinchcliffe, and Mary Melnyk. (comps.) The Hidden Harvest: The Valueof WildResources in Agricultural Systems. (A Project Summary), 1995.
Bishop, Josh and Ian Scoones. Beer and Baskets: The economics of women's livelihoods in
Ngamiland, Botswana, 1994.
Hot Springs Working Group. (comp.) Local-LevelEconomic Valuation of Savanna Woodland
Resources: Village Casefrom Zimbabwe, 1993.
Scoones, Ian, Mary Melnyk, and Jules N. Pretty. (eds.) The Hidden Harvest: WildFoods andAgricultural Systems.A Literature Reviewand Annotated Bibliography, 1992.
Drylands Programme
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Reij, Chris, Ian Scoones, and Camilla Toulmin(eds.) Sustaining the Soil. Indigenous Soil andWaterConservation in Africa, 1996.
Lane, Charles. Pastures Lost: Barabaig Economy,Resource Tenureand the Alienation of theirLand in Tanzania, 1996.
Scoones, Ian with Chinaniso Chibudu et al. Hazards and Opportunities. Farming Livelihoods
in Dryland Africa: Lessonsfrom Zimbabwe, 1996.
Toulmin, Camilla, Nick Robins, Krystyna Swiderska and Koy Thomson. Capacity
Development in the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change. The Role ofCollaborative Research. ENRICH workshop.Edinburgh 9-10 October 1995, 1995.
Scoones, Ian. (ed.) Living with Uncertainty. New Directions in Pastoral Development in50

Africa, 1995.
David, Rosalind. (coord.) Changing Places? Women,ResourceManagement and Migration in
the Sahel. Case Studiesfrom Senegal, Burkina Faso, Mali and Sudan, 1995.
IIED. Proceedings from a Workshopon Nutrient Cycling and Soil Fertility Management in
Africa, Soddo, Welaita,Ethiopia 26 November —2 December 1995, 1995.
Toulmin, Camilla. Gestion de Terroirs: concept and development, 1994.
IIED/Centre for Development Cooperation Services.Indigenous Soil and WaterConservationin Africa. Proceedings of the Workshopin Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 6-9 June 1994, 1994.
Cumar Ibrahim, Maxamuud. Aas-aaska: Aqoonta Dhirta Iyo Deegaanka, 1993.
DENIVA/IIED. The Pestle and the Mortar. Researchers and NGOs Working Togetherfor
Sustainable Development,Mukono, Uganda 18-21 January 1993, 1993.
Kolawole, A., M.O. Awogbade, and J. Voh.Sustainable Use of Fadama in northern Nigeria.
Proceedings of a National Policy Workshop,Maiduguri, Nigeria February 1993, 1993.
Edwards, Sue, and Tafesse Mesfin (eds.) Conferenceon Pastoralism in Ethiopia, 4-6 February
1993, 1996.
Potkanski, Tomasz. Pastoral Economy,Property Rights and Traditional Mutual AssistanceMechanisms among the Ngorongoro and Salei Maasai of Tanzania, 1997.
Moorehead, Richard. Structural Chaos: Community and State Management of Common
Property in Mali, 1997.
Mustafa, Kemal. Evictionof Pastoralistsfrom the MkomaziGame Reserve in Tanzania: an historical review, 1997.
ole Ngulay, Saruni. Report on the Second Maa conference on Sustainable Pastoral
Developmentheld in Arusha, June 1994, 1997.
ole Ngulay, Saruni. Kisongo Maasai Customary Land TenureArrangements: social and ecological considerationsfor sustainable pastoral livelihoodsin Tanzania, 1997.
Shivji, Issa. Problems of Land Tenurein Tanzania:A reviewand appraisal of the report of the
Presidential Commission of Inquiry into land Matters, 1992, 1997.
Bradbury, Mark, Simon Fisher, and Charles Lane. Workingwith Pastoralist NGOs and Land
Conflicts in Tanzania: A report on a workshop held in Terrat, Tanzania. I1 th-15th
December 1994, 1995.
Potkanski, Tomasz. Property Concepts, Herding Patterns and Management of Natural
Resources among the Ngorongoro and Salei Maasai of Tanzania, 1994.
Shivji, Issa. A Legal Quagmire: Tanzania's Regulation of Land Tenure (Establishment of
Villages)Act, 1992, 1994.
Schoonmaker Freudenberger, Mark and Karen. Pastoralism in Peril: Pressures on Grazing
Land in Senegal, 1993.
Lane, Charles, and Richard Moorehead. Who should own the range? New Thinking on
Pastoral Resource Tenurein Dryland Africa, 1994.
Ecologist, The. Reclaiming the Commons, 1993.
Tenga, Ringo. Pastoral Land Rights in Tanzania:A Review, 1992.
IIED. Haramata Bulletin of the Drylands. (Magazine.)
Choksi, Archana and Caroline Dyer. Pastoralism in a changing world: patterns of adaptation

51

among the Rabaris of Kutch, Gujerat, 1996.
Zeba, Souleymane NGOs and natural resource management policy in Burkina Faso, 1996.
Scoones, Ian, Chris Reij, and Camilla Toulmin. Sustaining the soil: indigenous soil and water
conservation in Africa, 1996.
Scholte, Paul, Saidou Kari, and Mark Moritz. The involvementof nomadic and transhumant
pastoralists in the rehabilitation and management of the Logone floodplain, north
Cameroon, 1996.
Al-Sayed Omar, Samira, Tareq Madouh, and Sarah Al-Sayed Omar. Agricultural development in Kuwait: prospects and solutions for improving production and reducing landdegradation, 1996.
Juul, Kristine.Post drought migration and technological innovations among Fulani herders in
Senegal: the triumph of the tube! 1996.
Hagmann, J. and K. Murwira. Indigenous soil and water conservation in southern Zimbabwe:a study on techniques, historical changes and recent developments under participatory
research and extension, 1996.
Sinha, Saurabh. Resisting change? Adaptations by traditional pastoralists to the Rajasthan
Canal Project, 1996.
Salem-Murdock, Muneera and Madiodio Niasse. Water conflict in the Senegal river valley:
implications of a "no-flood" scenario, 1996.
Myers, Mary with Rosalind David, Sarra Akrat, and Amani Awad Hamid. The effects of maleout-migration on women's management of natural resources in the Sudan, 1995.
Faure, Armelle. Private land ownership in rural Burkina Faso, 1995.
Waters-Bayer,Ann, Wolfgang Bayer, and Annette von Lossau. Participatory planning withpastoralists: some recent experiences, 1995.
Thebaud,Brigitte. Land tenure, environmentaldegradation and desertificationin Africa: somethoughts on the Sahelian example, 1995.
Toulmin, Camilla. The Convention to Combat Desertification: guidelinesfor NGO activity,
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Thebaud, Brigette, Hermann Grell, and Sabine Meihe. Recognising the effectivenessof traditional pastoral practices: lessons from a controlled grazing experiment in Northern
Senegal, 1995.
Engberg, Pedersen, Lars. Creating local democratic politics from above: the "Gestion desTerroirs" approach in Burkina Faso, 1995.
Ka, Awa. Current natural resource management systems: landholding in the Gamaaji Saarerural community,1994.
Manger, Leif. Managing Pastoral adaptations in the Red Sea hills of the Sudan: challenges
and dilemmas, 1994.
Kant& Salif, and Toon Defoer. How farmers classify and manage their land: implicationsfor
research and developmentactivities, 1994.
Bruggeman, Hedwig. Pastoral women and livestockmanagement: examplesfrom Northern
Uganda and Central Chad, 1994.
Bara Gueye, Mamadou. Conflictsand alliances betweenfarmer and herders: the case of Goll

52

in Fandene, Senegal, 1994.
Evers, Yvette, D. Dealing with risk and uncertainty in Africa's drylands: the social dimensionsof desertification, 1994.
Tiffen, Mary and Michael Mortimore. Environment,population growth and productivity in
Kenya: a case study of Machakos District, 1993.
Vedeld, Trond. The state and rangeland management: creation and erosion of pastoral institutions in Mali, 1993.
Leye, Nohoune. Writingfrom experience: grassroots in Senegal, 1993.
Lund, Christian. Waitingfor the Rural Code: perspectives on a land tenure reform in Niger ,1993.
Oloka-Onyango,Joe, Gariyo Zie, and Frank Muhereza.Pastoralism, crisis and transformationin Karamoja, 1993.
Toulmin, Camilla. Combatting desertification: setting the agenda for a global convention,
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Vira, Shiraz. The Gujars of Uttar Pradesh: neglected "Victimsof Progress," 1993.
Painter, Thomas M. Getting it right: linkingconcepts and action for improvingthe use of natural resources in Sahelian WestAfrica, 1993.
Lindskog, P. and A. Mando. The relationship between research institutesand NGOs in the fieldof soil and water conservation in Burkina Faso, 1992.
Scoones, Ian. Wetlandsin Drylands: key resourcesfor agricultural and pastoral production in
Africa, 1992.
Bara Gueye, Mamadou. Co-operation between SenegaleseNon-Governmental Organisations
and National Research Structures: constraints and perspectives , 1992.
Agrawal, Arun. The grass is greener on the other side: a study of Raikas, migrant pastoralistsof Rajasthan, 1992.
Gueye, Ibrahima, and Peter Laban. From woodlots to village land management in the Sahel ,1992.
Stocking, Michael. Land degradation and rehabilitation: research in Africa 1980-1990—retrospect and prospect, 1992.
Behnke, R. H. and Ian Scoones. Rethinking range ecology: implicationsfor rangeland management in Africa, 1992.
Mohamed Salih, M. Pastoralists and planners: local knowledge and resource management in
Gidan Magajia Grazing Reserve, Northern Nigeria, 1992.
ENDA-TiersMonde. Poverty and environmentin Africa: which way ahead? 1991.
Murombedzi, J. Decentralising commonproperty resources management: a case study of the
Nyaminyami District Council of Zimbabwe's WildlifeManagement Programme , 1991.
Schoonmaker Freudenberger,Karen. Mbegue: the disingenuous destruction of a Sahelianforest, 1991.
Pointing, J. and S. Joekes. Womenin pastoral societies in east and west Africa, 1991.
Maiga, A., P.N. de Leeuw, L. Diarra, and P. Hiernaux. The harvesting of wild-growinggrain
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Saint, Kishore. Development Cooperation and the Development-EnvironmentCrisis, 1991.
Mariko, Keletigui A. Reforming land tenure and restoring peasants' rights: some basic conditionsfor reversing environmental degradation in the Sahel, 1991.
Scoones, Ian. Living with Uncertainty: New Directions for Pastoral Development in Africa.
Overviewpaper of the workshop on New Directions in African Range Management andPolicy. Woburn,UK, June 1993, 1994.
Schoonmaker Freudenberger, Mark and Karen. Fields, Fallow and Flexibility: Natural
Resource Management in Ndam Mor Fademba, Senegal. Results of a Rapid Rural
Appraisal, 1993.
Scoones, Ian. (ed.) Wetlands in Drylands: the agroecology of savanna systems in Africa. Part
1: Overview—ecological,economicand social issues, 1991.
Ingram, Julie. Wetlands in Drylands: the agroecology of savanna systems in Africa. Part 2:
Soil and water processes, 1991.
Kolawole, Are. Wetlands in Drylands: the agroecology of savanna systems in Africa. Part 3a:
Economics and management offadama in northern Nigeria, 1991.
Hottenga, Folkert, Henk Peters and Sjoerd Zanan. Wetlands in Drylands: the agroecology ofsavanna systems in Africa. Part 3b: Potential of bas fonds in agropastoral development inSanmatenga, Burkina Faso, 1991.
Osman El Sammani, Mohammed. Wetlands in Drylands: the agroecology of savanna systems
in Africa. Part 3c: Wadisof north Kordofan,Sudan—present roles and prospects for development, 1991.
Fre, Zeremariam. Wetlands in Drylands: the agroecology of savanna systems in Africa. Part
3d: Khor Baraka—a key resource in eastern Sudan and Eritrea, 1991.
Kokwe, Misael. Wetlands in Drylands: the agroecology of savanna systemsin Africa. Part 3e:
The role of dambos in agricultural developmentin Zambia, 1991.
Scoones, Ian and Ben Cousins. Wetlands in Drylands: the agroecology of savanna systems in
Africa. Part 3f: Key resources for agriculture and grazing: the struggle for control overdambo resources in Zimbabwe, 1991.
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Reij, Chris, Ian Scoones, and Camilla Toulmin. Techniquestraditionnelles de conservation del' eau et des sols en Afrique, 1996.
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Diouf, Waly, and Mamadou Bara Gueye. L'apprentissage par l' experience. Formation desformateurs a la MARP.Niamey, Niger 3-13 avril 1995, 1995.
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decembre 1993, 1994.
Bara Gueye, Mamadou. (ed.) OXFAMinitie ses partenaires a la Methode Acceleree deRecherche Participative: Rapport de l'atelier organise a Segou, Mali, du 14 au 23 juin
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Bara Gueye, Mamadou. (ed.) Rapport de l'atelier regional deformation de formateurs sur la
Methode Acceleree de Recherche Participative, Dakar, Senegal, du 11 au 23 mai 1993.
Bara Gueye, Mamadou. (ed.) Innovations methodologiques et exigence de qualit. * (Relais
MARPNo. 3.) 1996.
Bara Gueye, Mamadou. (ed.) Innovations methodologiques et exigence de qualit. * (Relais
MARPNo. 2.) 1994.
Bara Gueye, Mamadou (ed.) Outils, techniques et attitudes—le partage de quelques
experiences.(Relais MARPNo. 1.) 1993.
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TIED.Haramata Bulletin de zones Arides (Magazine).
Choksi, Archana and Caroline Dyer.Le mondepastoral face au changement: schema d'adaptation des Rabaris de Kutch, dans la region de Gujarat, 1996.
Zeba, Souleymane. Role des ONG dans la reforme des politiques de gestion des ressources
naturelles au Burkina Faso, 1996.
Reij, Chris, Ian Scoones, and Camilla Toulmin. Techniquestraditionnelles de conservation del'eau et des sols en Afrique, 1996.
Scholte, Paul, Sadiou Kari, and Mark Moritz. Le role des nomades et pasteurs transhurnants
dans la rehabilitation et la gestion de la plaine inondable de Logone, au nord Cameroun,
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Al-Sayed Omar, Samira, Tareq Madouh, and Sarah Al-Sayed Omar. Le developpement agricole au Koweit: Perspectives et solutions pour ameliorer la productions et attenuer ladegradation des terres, 1996.
Juul, Kristine. Migration et innovations technologiques chez les peuls du Senegal suite aux
secheresses: le triomphe de la chambre a air, 1996.
Hagmann, J. and K. Murwira. Techniquestraditionelles de conservation de l'eau des sols dansle sud du Zimbabwe: evolution historique et developpementsdus a la rechercheparticipative eta la vulgarisation, 1996.
Sinha, Saurabh. Adaptations des pasteurs traditionnels au Projet du Canal du Rajasthan ,1996.
Salem-Murdock, Muneera and Madiodio Niasse. Conflits de l'eau dans la vallee du fleuve
Senegal: implications d'un scenario "zero inondation," 1996.

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Myers, Mary with Rosalind David, Sarra Akrat, and Amani Awad Hamid. Les effets de l' exode masculin sur la gestion des ressources naturelles par les femmes au Soudan, 1995.
Faure, Armelle. L'appropriation privee en milieu rural: Politiques foncieres et pratiques
locales au Burkina Faso, 1995.
Waters-Bayer, Ann, Wolfgang Bayer, Annette von Lossau. Plamfication participative en
milieupastoral: Quelques experiences recentes, 1995.
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Toulmin, Camilla. Conventionde lutte contre la Desertifcation: Orientations des Activitesdes
ONG, 1995.
Thebaud, Brigette, Hermann Grell, and Sabine Miehe. Versune reconnaissance de l'efficacite
pastorale traditionnelle: les lecons d'une experience de paturage controle dans le nord duSenegal, 1995.
Engberg Pedersen, Lars. Democratiser la vie politique locale de haut en bas: l'approche degestion des terroirs au Burkina Faso, 1995.
Ka, Awa. Systemesactuels de gestion des ressources naturelles: Cas du foncier dans la cornmunaute rurale de Gamaaji Saare au Senegal, 1994.
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Kante, Salif, and Toon Defoer. La connaissance de la classification et gestion paysanne desterres: Role dans l'orientation des actions de recherche et de developpement, 1994.
Bruggeman, Hedwig. Femmes pastoralistes et gestion du betail: Examples tires du nord del'Ouganda et du centre du Tchad, 1994.
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Evers, Yvette D. Risques et incertitudedans les zones arides africaines: aspects sociaux de lasdesertification, 1994.
Tiffen, Mary and Michael Mortimore. Environnement,croissance demographique et productivite au Kenya: le cas du district de Machakos, 1993.
Vedeld, Trond. L'Etat et la gestion des paturages: la creation et l'erosion d'institutions pastorales au Mali, 1993.
Leye, Nohoune. Travail avec les organisations de base au Senegal, 1993.
Lund, Christian. En attendant le Code Rural: Reflexionssur une reforme de la tenure fonciere
au Niger, 1993.
Oloka-Onyango,Joe, Gariyo Zie, and Frank Muhereza. Pastoralisme, crise et transformationa Karamoja, 1993.
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Bara Gueye, Mamadou. La Collaboration entre les organisations non-gouvernementales
senegalaises et le systhme national de recherche agricole: Contraintes et perspectives,
1992.
Agrawal, Arun. L'herbe semble toujoursplus verte de l'autre cote: Etude des Raikas,pasteurs,
nomades du Rajasthan, 1992.
Gueye, Ibrahima and Peter Laban. Des bois de villages a la gestion du terroir villageois en
Afrique de l'Ouest, 1992.
Stocking,Michael. La degradation et la rehabilitation des terres: Retrospectiveetprospective
de la recherche en Afrique 1980-1990, 1992.
Behnke, R.H. and I. Scoones. Repenser l'ecologie des parcours: Implicationspour la gestion
des terres de parcours en Afrique, 1992.
Mohamed Salih, M.A. Pasteurs et planificateurs: Connaissances locales et gestion desressources dans la reserve de paturages de Gidan Magajia, au Nigeria du Nord, 1992.
ENDA-TiersMonde. Pauvrete et environnementen Afrique: Quefaire? 1991.
Murombedzi, J. La decentralisation de la gestion des ressources de propriete commune: etudede l' application au district de Nyaminyami du programme de gestion de la faune duZimbabwe, 1991.
Schoonmaker Freudenberger, K. Mbegue: L'habile destruction d'une foret sahelienne, 1991.
Pointing, J. and S. Joekes. Lesfemmes dans les societespastorales d'Afrique orientale et occidentals, 1991.
Maiga, A., P.N. de Leeuw, L. Diarra, and P. Hiernaux. La recolte des cereales sauvages dansla region du Gourma au Mali, 1991.
M.S. Parkipuny. Pastoralisme, conservation et developpement dans la region du Grand
Serengeti, 1991.
Saint, Kishore. La cooperation au developpementet la crise du developpement et de l'environnement, 1991.
Mariko, Keletigui A. La reformefonciere et la restitution des droits aux paysans: quelquesconditions de base pour inverser la degradation ecologique au Sahel, 1991.
Ecologist, The Pour une reconquete des communaux, 1993.
Organise avec la collaboration du Ministere de Developpement Rural et l'Environnement,
Mauritanie. IIED. Le Foncier Pastoral et le Developpement au Sahel. Rapport de l'atelier
sous-regional, Nouakchott,Mauritanie, du 30 octobre au 4 november 1993, 1993.
Scoones, Ian. Vivreavec l'incertitude: Nouvelles orientationspour le developpementpastoralen Afrique. Vued' ensemble de l'atelier "Nouvellesorientations et politiques en matiere degestion des parcours." Woburn.GB,juin 1993, 1993.
Schoonmaker Freudenberger, Mark and Karen. Champs, Jachere et Flexibilite—Lagestion
des ressourcesnaturelles a Name Mor Fademba, Senegal. Resultats d'une Etude realisee
selon la Methode Acceleree de Recherche Participative, 1993.

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Environmental Economics Programme
IIED. Towardsa Sustainable Paper Cycle, 1996.
Knight, Peter.A Changing Future for Paper.
Bishop, Josh and Ian Scoones. (Comps.) Beer and Baskets: The Economics of Women's
Livelihoods in Ngamiland, Botswana, 1994.
IIED. WhoseEden?: An Overviewof CommunityApproaches to WildlifeManagement, 1994.
Barbier, Edward B., Joanne C. Burgess, and Carl Folke. Paradise Lost? The Ecological
Economics of Biodiversity, 1994.
Barbier, Edward B., Joanne C. Burgess, Timothy M. Swanson, and David W. Pearce.
Elephants, Economics and Ivory, 1992.
Pearce, David. W., Edward B. Barbier, Anil Markandya, Scott Barrett, R. Kerry Turner andTimothy M. Swanson. Blueprint 2: Greening the WorldEconomy, 1991.
Barbier, E.B. and T.M. Swanson. (eds.). Economics for the Wilds: Wildlife, Wildlands,
Diversityand Development.
Barbier, Edward B., Joanne C. Burgess, Joshua Bishop, and Bruce Aylward. The Economicsof the Tropical Timber Trade, 1992.
Eaton, Derek. The Economics of Soil Erosion: A Model of Farm Decision Making, 1996.
Bishop, Joshua. The Economics of Soil Degradation: An Illustration of the Change in
ProductivityApproach to Valuationin Mali and Malawi, 1995.
Kumar, Ritu and Yasser Sherif DP 95-01 Economic Incentives for Pollution Prevention: A
Case Studyof Coal Processing Industries, Dhanbad, Bihar, India, 1995.
Young, Carlos E.F. and Ronaldo Seroa da Motta. DP 94-01 Measuring Sustainable Income
from Mineral Extraction in Brazil, 1994.
Aylward, Bruce A., Jaime Echeverria, Liza Fendt, and Edward B. Barbier. DP 93-06 The
Economic Valueof Species Information and its Role in Biodiversity Conservation: Costa
Rica's National Biodiversity Institute, 1993.
Aylward, Bruce A. DP 93-05 The Economic Value of Pharmaceutical Prospecting and its
Role in Biodiversity Conservation, 1993.
Brooks, David. DP 93-04 Market Conditionsfor Tropical Timber, 1993.
Perez-Garcia, John M., and Bruce Lippke. DP 93-03 The Timber Trade and Tropical Forests:
Modelling the Impacts of Supply Constraints, Trade Constraints and Trade Liberalization,
1993.
Barbier, Edward B. DP 93-02 Policy Issues and Options Concerning Linkages Between the
Tropical Timber Trade and Sustainable Forest Management, 1993.
Barbier, Edward B., Joanne C. Burgess, Nancy Bockstael, and Ivar Strand. DP 93-01 The
TimberTrade and Tropical Deforestation in Indonesia, 1993.
Aylward, Bruce A., and Edward B. Barbier. DP 92-05 What is Biodiversity Worth to a
Developing Country? Capturing the Pharmaceutical Valueof Species Information, 1992.
Barbier, Edward B. DP 92-04 Valuing Environmental Functions: Tropical Wetlands, 1992.
Burgess, Joanne C. DP 92-03 Economic Analysis of the Causes of Tropical Deforestation,
1992.
Burgess, Joanne C. DP 92-02 Impact of WildlifeTrade on Endangered Species. June 1992.

58

Barbier, Edward B. Joanne C. Burgess, Bruce A. Aylward, and Joshua Bishop. DP 92-01
Timber Trade, Trade Polices and Environmental Degradation, 1992.
Barbier, Edward B. DP 91-07 Environmental Management and Development in the South:
Prerequisites for Sustainable Development, 1991.
Markandya, Anil and Charles Perrings. DP 91-06 Resource Accounting for Sustainable
Development: A Review of Basic Concepts, Recent Debate and Future Needs, 1991.
Barbier, Edward B. DP 91-05 The Role of Smallholder Producer Prices in Land Degradation:
The Case of Malawi, 1991.
Buchner, Gregor, Joanne C. Burgess, Victoria C. Drake, Tom Gameson and David Hanrahan.
DP 91-04 Gender, Environmental Degradation and Development: The Extent of the
Problem, 1991.
Swanson, Timothy. DP 91-03 Wildlife Utilisation as an Instrument for Natural Habitat
Conservation: A Survey of the Literature and of the Issues, 1991.
Barbier, Edward B., William M. Adams, and Kevin Kimmage. DP 91-02 Economic Valuationof Wetland Benefits: The Hadejia-Jama' are Floodplain, Nigeria, 1991.
Southgate, Douglas. DP 91-01 Tropical Deforestation and Agricultural Development in Latin
America, 1991.

Gatekeeper Series—Papers
Johnstone, Nick GK 96-01 International Trade and Environmental Change: Evidence andImplicationsfor Developing Countries, 1996.
Aylward, Bruce A., Joshua Bishop, and Edward B. Barbier. GK 93-01 Economic Efficiency,
Rent Capture and Market Failure in Tropical Forest Management, 1993.
Southgate, Douglas GK 92-04 The Rationality of Land Degradation in Latin America: Some
Lessonsfrom the Ecuadorian Andes, 1992.
Spurgeon, James P.G. and Bruce A. Aylward. GK 92-03 The Economic Valueof Ecosystems:
4—Coral Reefs, 1992.
Barbier, Edward B. GK 92-02 The Nature of Economic Instruments: A Brief Overview, 1992.
Bishop, Joshua. GK 92-01 Economic Analysis of Soil Degradation, 1992.
Pearce, DavidW. GK 91-04 Afforestationand the GreenhouseEffect: The Economicsof Fixing
Carbon by Growing Trees, 1991.
Aylward, Bruce A. GK 91-03 The Economic Value of Ecosystems: 3—BiologicalDiversity,
1991.
Bishop, Joshua,Bruce A. Aylward,and Edward B. Barbier. GK 91-02 Guidelinesfor Applying
EnvironmentalEconomics in Developing Countries, 1991.
Barbier,Edward B. GK 91-01 TheEconomic Valueof Ecosystems: 2—TropicalForests, 1991.
Young, Carlos E.F. and Joshua Bishop. CREED WP 1 Adjustment Policies and theEnvironment:A Critical Review of the Literature, 1995.
Verbruggen, Harmen, Onno Kuik, and Martijn Bennis. CREED WP2 Environmental
Regulations as Trade Barriers for Developing Countries: Eco-Labelling and the Dutch
Cut Flower Industry, 1995.
Aylward,Bruce, Jaime Echeverria, and Edward B. Barbier. CREED WP3Economic Incentives

59

for Watershed Protection: A Report on an Ongoing Study of Arenal, Costa Rica, 1995.
Kumar Ritu and Carlos Young.CREED WP4Economic Policiesfor Sustainable Water Use in
Thailand, 1996.
van Beukering, Pieter, Edwin Schoon, and Ajit Mani. CREED WP5 The Informal Sector andWastePaper Recovery in Bombay, 1996.
Stone, Steven.CREED WP6Economic Trendsin the TimberIndustry of the Brazilian Amazon:
Evidencefrom Paragominas, 1996.
Ramaswamy, K.V., R.R. Vaidya, M.J. Bennis, and J.G.M. Hoogeveen. CREED WP7 Input
Substitution in the Indian Paper Industry: A Variable Cost Function Approach, 1996.
Duraiappah, Anantha. CREED WP8 Poverty and Environmental Degradation: A Literature
Reviewand Analysis, 1996.
Janssen, Ron and Jose E. Padillo. CREED WP9 Valuation and Evaluation of Management
Alternativesfor the Pagbilao Mangrove Forest, 1996.

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