NEWS SITUATION TRACKING – NIGERIA

1NATIONWIDE PROTESTS IN NIGERIA – AUGUST 4 -7, 2024

Vol. 1

Location: NIGERIA
Issue: #ENDBADGOVERNANCE NATIONWIDE PROTEST IN NIGERIA
Date: August 7, 2024
COMMUNITY PROFILING

CRITICALSTAKEHOLDERS

Population: Nigeria has a populationof over 229,152,2172.

Direct Actors:

Basic Demography and Geography ofHotspots:
Nigeria shares land borders with theRepublic of Benin, Chad, Cameroun,
Niger and the Gulf of Guninea of theAtlantic Ocean. The country has 36
States and the Federal Capital
Territory (FCT). There are 774 LocalGovernment Areas (LGA’s) divided
across six (6) geo-political zones.
Ethnicity: Nigeria has over 250 ethnic
groups with Hausa-Fulani, Igbo,
Yoruba3 in the majority.
Similar Nationwide Demonstration #EndSARS in October 2020:
In October 2020, Nigeria recorded
similar widespread demonstration(#EndSARS) over the prevalence ofhuman rights abuses perpetuated by
the Nigeria Police Force (NPF).
The WANEP NEWS documented over90
incidentsof
EndSARSdemonstrations across States, out of

Affected Persons:Nigerians
youths)(especially

Nigerians and officersof the Nigeria Police
Force (NPF).

Interested Actors:
Federal and State
Governments,
Amnesty
International,
Civil
Society Organisations,International
Agencies,
National/State Houseof Assembly, House ofRepresentative,
Christian Associationof Nigeria (CAN),
Muslim Rights Concern(MURIC),
Law
Enforcement
Agencies,
National

INCIDENT PROFILINGThe ongoing nationwide demonstrations against the current economic crisis in Nigeria continue to gain
momentum, with violence recorded across some states. The demonstrations are driven by widespread
discontent with the current administration’s economic reforms, which continue to have a profound effecton livelihoods of the population.
As the demonstration reaches Day 7, several states including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT-Abuja)
continue to record protesters compliance. Between Day 4 and 6, some cities and states including Edo, Oyo,Adamawa, Lagos, Osun, Rivers, Ogun, Akwa-Ibom, and Taraba have maintained a relatively peacefulprotest, while others including Kano, Zamfara, Borno, Gombe, Bauchi, Kaduna, Plateau, Katsina, and Jigawa
states witnessed recurring incidents of casualties, arson, violent confrontations, looting and destruction ofprivate and public infastructures by suspected hoodlums.7
Also, there were recorded incidents of shooting by police operatives to disperse protesters suspected tohave exploited the insecurity created by the protest to perpetrate criminal activities. Reports of individuals
and journalists allegedly hit by stray bullets and tear gas canisters fired by police and military operatives
were recorded in FCT-Abuja, Nasarawa, Kano, and Kaduna States between Day 4 and 6.8 On the other hand,
the Nigerian Police Force (NPF) confirmed cases of unprovoked attacks on security personnel in FCT-Abuja,Kano, Kaduna and Gombe states with a total of nine (9) police officers reported injured since thecommencement of the protest.9i Similar attempted attack on operatives of the Nigerian Army was also
reported in Kaduna state on August 6, 2024, which resulted in the death of an 18-year old boy9ii.
According to the Amnesty International, 13 people were allegedly killed in clashes with the law
enforcement agencies since the start of the protest.10 These claims of fatality have been refuted by theNigerian Police Force (NPF), who put the death toll at 7, stating that some of the fatalities recorded in the
period were caused by accidents and explosive devices.11

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=ALeKk024WZQdV9kevtu8o3POhTqEE6kSdQ:1602836211476&source=univ&tbm=isch&q=map+of+Nigeria&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjQ5GY1rjsAhURCWMBHXBQDDQQ7Al6BAgBEHE&biw=899&bih=578
2
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/NGA/nigeria/population#:~:text=United%20Nations%20projections%20are%20also,a%202.41%25%20increase%20from%202022.
3
Source : WANEP National Early Warning System (NEWS) : www.wanep.org/news
4ibid.
5.
Source : WANEP National Early Warning System (NEWS) : www.wanep.org/news
6. ibid
7. Source : WANEP National Early Warning System (NEWS) : www.wanep.org/news
8. Source : WANEP National Early Warning System (NEWS) : www.wanep.org/news; https://dailytrust.com/police-make-u-turn-say-officer-igp-claimed-was-killed-survived-miraculously/;https://apnews.com/article/nigeria-protests-abuja-secret-service-police-33c66e9ecf4d9ba144e4ccf7cfd97607;
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/08/soldiers-security-operatives-enforce-24hr-curfew-inkaduna/#:~:text=As%20security%20operatives%20battled%20hoodlums,at%20the%20Hayin%20Danmani%20community.&text=Two%20young%20men%20in%20the,rice%20processing%20mill%20to%20steal.
9. https://www.channelstv.com/2024/08/03/protests-policeman-reported-dead-miraculously-survived-force-pro/#:~:text=%E2%80%9CNine%20(9)%20police%20officers,in%20a%20statement%20on%20Saturday.;https://dailypost.ng/2024/08/07/nigerian-army-army-arrest-officer-who-gunned-down-16-year-old-protester-in-kaduna/
10. https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/world/africa/2024-08-05-nigerian-protests-fizzle-out-after-deadly-police-crackdown/
11.. ibid
12. Source : WANEP National Early Warning System (NEWS) : www.wanep.org/news ; https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/08/protests-commercial-activities-halted-as-pro-anti-govt-groups-clash-in-lagos/
13. https://dailytrust.com/breaking-russia-breaks-silence-on-use-of-its-flag-by-protesters/; https://dailytrust.com/breaking-we-wont-accept-treason-defence-chief-warns-protesters-flying-russian-flag/
14.
https://www.channelstv.com/2024/08/05/dss-arrests-tailors-suspected-to-be-mass-producing-russian-flags-in-kano/;https://punchng.com/endbadgovernanceinnigeria-police-arrest-russian-flag-producer-30protesters/; https://www.arise.tv/protests-police-arrest-39-suspects-with-russian-chinese-flags-in-kaduna/#google_vignette ; https://punchng.com/police-arrest-10-with-russian-flags-101-for-violent-protest-in-gombe/
15.. ibid
16. https://dailypost.ng/2024/08/05/tinubu-hosts-security-council-meeting-at-presidential-villa/
17. Source : WANEP National Early Warning System (NEWS) : www.wanep.org/news
18.
https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/718759-spotlight-beyond-economic-hardship-these-are-other-issues-protest-organisers-have-raised.html;
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/08/protestskaduna-zaria-boil-over-n700bn-lost-in-5-days-asbon-kaccima/
1

which 56 were violent3. The
demonstrations further degenerated
as suspected hoodlums exploited theinsecurity created by the protest toperpetratecriminal
activities
including,jailbreak, robbery,
extortion and physical assaults ofcommuters/motorists, arson, looting,rape and revenge attacks on securityofficers. A total of 155 deaths and 125
injuries were recorded by WANEP
NEWS. Out of the total number offatalities (155), 32 were police officers
and 6 military officers. In addition, outof the total injured victims, 43 werepolice officers4.
Duringtheweeks-longdemonstration, 82 police stations andoutposts were vandalised and burnt
down, while 2083 inmates escapedfrom Correctional facilties in Edo(1993), Ondo (58) and Delta (32)States5. Lagos and Abia States also
recorded failed jail break attempts
with several food items and properties
in ware houses, shops, hospitals,
Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), lootedbycommunity
residents
andsuspected hoodlums in Edo, Lagos,Kwara, Osun, Ondo, Plateau, Akwa
Ibom, Oyo, Cross River, Kogi, Kaduna,
Adamawa, Taraba, Abuja, Ekiti, Ogun,Anambra, Enugu and Abia States, as
recorded in WANEP NEWS in October
20206.

HumanRights
Commission,Police
Service Commission,Federal Ministry ofJustice,opposition
politicalparties,
Organised
Labour,media, traditional andreligious leaders.

The prevailing volatile security situation in Nigeria compounded by the violent agitations in some states
have continued to raise citizens apprehension of plausible breakdown of law and order as witnessed during
the #EndSARS nationwide protest in October 2020. As monitored by the WANEP NEWS, there are alleged
claims of sponsored hoodlums infiltrating the protest to cause chaos.12
As protesters demand effective socio-economic and institutional restructuring to allievate the nationwide
hardship occasioned by the rising inflation, there are allegations that the protest against the administrationof President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has religious, ethnic and/or political undertones. A semblance of these
allegation is evident in some northern states, particulary in Kano, Zamfara, Bauchi, Katsina, Gombe andKaduna, where protesters are seen clamouring for military rule and others flying the Russian and Chinese
flags13. While the latter is considered a treasonable offence undermining Nigeria’s sovereignity and unity,
it has generated increased concerns about external interference. The Russian Embassy in Nigeria on August
5, 2024, has stated that the protesters’ actions do not reflect any official Russian Government policy orposition.14 As the Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, pledged to defend democracy andensure that democracy strives in Nigeria, security operatives have also apprehended over 49 protesters
and tailors with Russian and Chinese flags in Kano, Kaduna and Gombe states.16 The motive behindprotesters flying the flags of other sovereign nations, however, remains unclear.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s broadcast on August 4, 2024, aimed to reassure Nigerians of government’scommitment while urging protesters to suspend demonstrations and create space for dialogue, hasgenerated mixed reactions. Others have cited perceived insensitivity to the current economic burden, as
the president’s speech failed to highlight concrete measures in addressing the underlying issues. This has
the potential to escalate tensions and may likely aggravate violent tendencies during demonstrations.
Subsequently, on August 5, 2024, the President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, hosted a Security Council meetingwith service chiefs and the Inspector General of Police (IGP), to further address the ongoing#EndBadGovernance protest.15
As the protest progresses, three (3) additional states including Kaduna, Plateau and Bauchi states declareda 24-hour curfew between August 4 and 5, 2024, to strengthen public safety and de-escalate tension withseveral protesters apprehended for destroying public assets.16 Additionally, due to the potential threat of
attacks on correctional facilities, security measures have been significantly increased across these facilities
to prevent jail breaks.
The reinstatement of subsidies for petrol and electricity; measures to combat insecurity; enthronement ofcredible electoral and judicial systems for accountability and justice; re-opening of national borders tostimulate trade/prioritise made-in-nigeria goods to bolster local economies; revival of local industries; andaccess to free and quality primary and secondary education, amongst others, represents the genericdemands of the populace.17RISK ANALYSIS••••The ongoing nationwide demonstrations reflect deep-seated socio-political and economic issues in the country. Whilethese demonstrations are a manifestation of the populace’s demand for accountability, transparent governance, economic
reforms, and social support systems, the recorded violence and criminalities associated with the protest in some statespose significant risks to the country’s security, stability, and development.
The protests, which is similar to the #EndSARS demonstration in October 2020, have resulted in the disruption ofeconomic/business activities and vehicular movements with several offices shut down due to fear of looting, harassment,and destruction of properties. Such disruption may likely exacerbate existing supply chain issues, leading to shortages andfurther increase in the cost of goods and services. Moreover, economics experts have estimated losses at over 700 billion
within the first five days of the protest.18
A notable aspect of the ongoing demonstration is the active involvement of young people and the elderly. This mobilizationreflects a growing political consciousness and willingness to demand accountability. As this can lead to positive change ingovernance, there is also the risk of these demonstrations and agitations being co-opted by political interests.
The continued demonstrations amid several interventions by the Federal and State Governments to put a halt to the protest
and dialogue, reveal the existing trust deficit amongst the citizenry for the government. This distrust threatens the fabricof Nigerian democracy, as an increasing number of citizens have become disillusioned with the capacity of the state andfederal governments to stabilize the economy and address the ensuing hardship fuelled by the high inflation rate.

RECOMMENDATIONS!
•The Federal and State Governments should foster broader national collaboration with youth and women groups, Civil
Society Organisations (CSOs), opinion leaders, traditional/religious leaders, and other relevant groups to create space forbroader and inclusive dialogue to address the citizens’ concerns.

Situation Tracking is a periodic analytical report designed by WANEP through its National Early
Warning System (NEWS) to monitor the changing trends of specific conflict threats as civil society
support to peace and security in Nigeria2