IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 46/2022
March 10, 2023, Friday

Released every Friday

Publisher: Oil Information Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Inui Bldg. Kachidoki, 10th Floor, 13-1, Kachidoki 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-8581 Japan
https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/weekly_oil/index.php■ Overview
The key WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contract on NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) in the February 16- February 22 week moved within a range of $73.95 per barrel and $78.49/bbl.
On February 23, the key contract rebounded for the first time in seven trading days. Market players expected that Russia, which had
already decided to reduce its crude oil production by 0.5 million bbl/d from March 2023 as one of the countermeasures against economic
sanctions, would cut its crude production additionally. However, on this day the U.S. EIA (Energy Information Administration) announced ahigh level of the U.S. domestic inventory for crude oil the last weekend, which restricted oil price hikes. The April contract closed at $75.39/bbl
up $1.44/bbl from the previous trading day.
On February 24, the key contract rose further continued from the previous trading day due to strengthened concerns about oil supply
from Russia. Russia would reportedly reduce its crude oil export by 25%. However, the U.S. Consumer Price Index for January 2023
announced on this day increased by 5.4% compared to the same period of the previous year, accelerating for the first time in seven months. The
oil price rise was restricted by a sense of a continuation of interest rate rise. The April contract closed at $76.32/bbl up $0.93/bbl from theprevious trading day.
On February 27, the key contract turned down for the first time in three trading days due to strengthened concerns about acontinuation and prolongation of interest rate rise by the U.S. FRB (Federal Reserve Board) on the background of the various robust U.S.
economic indicators announced in the previous week. However, the key contract temporally rose during the morning trading-hours due to theannouncement of shutdown of crude oil pipeline bound for Poland (transport capacity: about 0.3 million bbl/d) by Russia on February 25. The
April contract closed at $75.68/bbl down $0.64/bbl from the previous trading day.
On February 28, the key contract rebounded by the expectations for China’s economic recovery in the background of announcementof an increase in Russia’s crude oil export to China in February 2023. However, the oil price rise was restricted by persistent concerns about acontinuation and prolongation of an interest rate rise by the U.S. FRB. The April contract closed at $77.05/bbl up $1.37/bbl from the previous
trading day.
On March 1, the key contract rose further to the strengthened expectations for China’s economic recovery. The China’s PMI(Purchasing Managers’ Index) for February 2023 logged above the milestone of 50 for the Government and private sector. Furthermore, theU.S. domestic inventory increased for crude oil the last weekend from the previous week and decreased for gasoline. The market players
recognized the tightening of oil demand and supply. The April contract closed at $77.69/bbl up $0.64/bbl from the previous trading day.
The Asian benchmark crude oil of Dubai for April delivery on the Tokyo market ranged from $81.00/bbl to $84.30/bbl on February
16 – February 22 week. It closed at $81.40/bbl on February 24, at $81.10/bbl on February 27, at $81.10/bbl on February 28, at $81.90/bbl on
March 1.
On the foreign exchange market in the February 16- February 22 week, the dollar moved within a range of 134.15 yen and 134.90
yen. It changed hands at 134.19 yen in late trading on February 24, at 136.27 yen on February 27, at 136.33 yen on February 28, at 136.41 yen
on March 1.
According to preliminary 10-day trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on February 24, the average crude oil import
CIF price for Japan in the early February period stood at 70,712 yen/kl (kiloliter), down 864 yen/kl from the previous 10-day period. In dollars,
the price was $86.96/bbl, down $0.16/bbl. The average exchange rate was 129.28 yen to the dollar.
Japan’s average retail price on February 27 leveled off from a week earlier for gasoline, decreased by 0.1 yen/l for diesel oil, anddecreased by 2 yen/l for kerosene on an 18-liter tank basis. The gasoline price leveled off for the second straight week. Diesel oil pricedecreased for the first time in two weeks. Kerosene price decreased for the first time in two weeks. The national average gasoline price was
167.4yen/l and mitigation measures against the extreme change in fuel oil were invoked again. The subsidy for the next week was 17.0 yen/l.
($/b)
From
Crude oilThis week

a weekearlier

Crude oil runs
Supply/ Topper capacity
Demand utilization rate

Crude oil inventories
Middle Eastern crude
oil (TOCOM)WTI crude oil(NYMEX)
Crude oil import CIF
price
Prices①Crude oil import
CIF price②Yen-dollar exchangerate
TTS exchange rate

From
a year earlier(1,000 kl)

2/19 ～ 2/25

3,096

▲

36

▲

－

(%)

〃

83.5

▲

1.0

→

－

(1,000 kl)

2/25

10,589

▼

-246

▲

－

($/bbl)

2/27

79.47

▼

-1.35

▼

-13.7

($/bbl)

2/27

75.68

▼

-0.48

▼

-20.0

($/bbl)

Ｅａｒｌｙ Ｆｅｂ

86.96

▼

-0.16

▲

0.21

(yen/kl)〃

70,712

▼

-864

▲

8,052

(yen/dollar)〃

129.28▲1.34▼-14.45140.0[NYMEX]WTI crude oil

130.0[TOCOM]MiddleEastern crude oil

123.70121.51

120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0

(yen/dollar)

2/27

30.0
20.0
2020.4.20 WTI ▲37.63

10.0

137.27

▼

-1.82

▼

-20.72

1IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 46/2022(￥/Ｌ)(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)
From
This week

Gasolinea weekearlier

969

Imports〃n.a.

Supply/DemandShipments

〃

842

▲

79

▲

－

Exports

〃

141

▼

-118

▼

－

2/25

1,692

▼

-13

▲

－

2/21 ～ 2/27

71.8

▲

0.2

▼

-7.4

2/21 ～ 2/27

73.0

→

0.0

▼

-8.1

2/27

73.6

▼

-1.1

▼

-9.4

2/27

167.4

→

0.0

▼

-5.4

Inventories
Gyoten (spot) [4-district
average lorry rack price](RIM)(TOCOM/
PricesFutures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

▼

-31

▲

n.a.

－

n.a.

(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)a weekearlier

Supply/DemandImports〃

n.a.

Shipments

〃

663

▲

78

▲

－

Exports

〃

214

▲

142

▲

－

2/25

1,239

▼

-61

▼

－

2/21 ～ 2/27

74.6

▲

0.2

▼

-6.6

2/21 ～ 2/27

76.1

▼

-0.5

▼

-9.7

2/27

－

2/27

147.5

average lorry rack price](RIM)(TOCOM/
PricesFutures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

▲

74

▲

n.a.

165.0

-0.1

12/27

1/25

2/27
2/23

(￥/Ｌ)

Diesel oil (retail)

－

n.a.

－
▼

167.4

a year earlier

817

Gyoten (spot) [4-district

167.6

From

2/19 ～ 2/25

Inventories

170.0

160.0

From
This week

Production

175.0

160.0
11/28

*Gyoten and futures prices are before tax

Diesel oil

Gasoline (retail)a year earlier

2/19 ～ 2/25

Production

180.0

From

155.0

150.0

147.8

147.5

145.0

－
▼

-5.0

*Gyoten and futures prices are before tax

140.0

11/28

12/27

1/25

2/23
1/17
2/27

(￥/Ｌ)
(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)

125.0

From
This week

Kerosenea weekearlier

2/19 ～ 2/25

319

Imports〃

n.a.

Shipments

〃

411

▲

39

▼

－

Exports

〃

31

▲

16

▲

－

2/25

1,339

▼

-123

▲

－

2/21 ～ 2/27

75.6

▲

0.5

▼

-5.5

2/21 ～ 2/27

75.3

▼

-0.2

▼

-5.8

2/27

76.3

▼

-0.2

▼

-3.7

2/27

110.8

▼

-0.1

▼

-2.1

Production

Supply/DemandInventories
Gyoten (spot) [4-district
average lorry rack price](RIM)(TOCOM/
PricesFutures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

▲

45

From
a year earlier

▼

n.a.

Kerosene (retail)

－

n.a.

120.0

115.0

110.0

111.2

110.8

105.0

11/28

12/27

1/25

2/27
2/23

2

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 46/2022■ Relevant Information
Overseas crude oil prices
1
On the crude oil futures market for this week (from February 23 to March 1), WTI end price logged $75.39/bbl on February 23 androse almost steadily except for a decline on February 27 by the expectations for Russia’s additional crude oil production cut and China’s
economic recovery. WTI end price logged $77.69/bbl on March 1.
According to the U.S. EIA Weekly Report announced on February 23, one working day delay due to consecutive holidays, the U.S.
domestic inventory as of February 17 increased by 7.6 million bbl for crude oil from the previous week, which was much more than the market
expectations, increasing for the ninth straight week and hitting a record high since May 2021. In addition, according to the U.S. EIA Weekly
Report announced on March 1, the U.S. domestic inventory as of February 24 increased by 1.2 million bbl for crude oil from the previous
week, which was more than the market expectations but decreased by 0.9 million bbl for gasoline, which was against the market expectations.
The market players recognized the tightening of oil demand and supply in the future.
According to the EIA, the average U.S. retail price of gasoline as of February 27 decreased by 3.7 cents per gallon from a weekearlier to $3.342/gal (121.0 yen/l), decreasing for the fourth straight week. The average U.S. retail price of diesel oil decreased by 8.2 cents per
gallon from a week earlier to $4.294/gal (155.5 yen/l), decreasing for the fourth straight week.
Baker Hughes reported on February 24 that the number of operating U.S. oil-drilling rigs decreased by seven units from a weekearlier to 600 units, decreasing for the second straight week.

2

Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (1) Shipments

According to a weekly report by the PAJ (Petroleum
Association of Japan), inactive topper capacity in the February 19- February 25 week in 2023 stood at 105,000 barrels per day,decreasing by 64,000 bpd from the previous week (total capacity
remained at 3,331,000 bpd).
Crude oil throughput in the week increased by 36,000
kl from the previous week to 3,096,000 kl. From a year earlier, it
increased by 71,000 kl. The topper capacity utilization rate stoodat 83.5%, up 1.0 points from the previous week and up 4.9 points
from a year earlier.
Production increased from the previous week forkerosene, diesel oil and Fuel Oil C and decreased for otherpetroleum products. Output was down 3.1% for gasoline, down
10.9% for jet fuel, up 16.2% for kerosene, up 10.0% for diesel oil,down 14.8% for Fuel Oil A, and up 34.4% for Fuel Oil C. FuelOil C imports in the week totaled 0 kl, down 6,000 kl from theprevious week. Diesel oil exports aggregated 214,000 kl, up
142,000 kl from the previous week.
Shipments (excluding imports) in the week increased
from the previous week for gasoline, kerosene, and diesel oil anddecreased for other oil products. From a year earlier, shipments
expanded for gasoline and diesel oil and declined for other oil
products. Gasoline shipments increased by 10.4% from theprevious week to 842,000 kl, increasing for the first time in two
weeks. Shipments totaled 28,000 kl for jet fuel (down 144.8%

2from the previous week), 411,000 kl for kerosene (up 10.6% from theprevious week), 663,000 kl for diesel oil (up 13.4% from the previousweek), 234,000 kl for Fuel Oil A (down 10.6% from the previousweek), and 183,000 kl for Fuel Oil C (down 16.0% from the previousweek).
(Unit: 1,000 kl)
This week

Previous week

From
a week earlier(2/19 ～ 2/25)(2/12 ～ 2/18)

Gasoline

842

763

▲

79

（ 10%）

Jet fuel

-28

62

▼

-90

（-145%）

Kerosene (heating

411

372

▲

39

（ 10%）

Diesel oil

663

585

▲

78

（ 13%）

Fuel oil A

234

262

▼

-28

（-11%）

Fuel Oil C

183

218

▼

-35

（-16%）

Total

2,305

2,262

▲

43

（2%）

Oil)

This week’s shipments = (Previous weekend inventories + This week’s production+ This week’s imports) - (This week’s exports + This weekend inventories)

Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (2) Inventories

Inventories as of February 25 increased for jet fuel anddecreased for other petroleum products. From a year earlier,inventories decreased for diesel oil and Fuel Oil A and increased
for other petroleum products.
Gasoline inventories totaled 1,692,000 kl, down
13,000 kl from a week earlier and up 30,000 kl from a year
earlier.
Kerosene inventories totaled 1,339,000 kl, down
123,000 kl from a week earlier and up 10,000 kl from a year
earlier.
Diesel oil inventories totaled 1,239,000 kl, down
61,000 kl from a week earlier and down 205,000 kl from a year
earlier.
Fuel Oil A inventories totaled 681,000 kl, down 7,000
kl from a week earlier and down 5,000 kl from a year earlier.
Fuel Oil C inventories totaled 1,663,000 kl, down
49,000 kl from a week earlier and up 29,000 kl from a year
earlier.

(Unit: 1,000 kl)
FromThis week

Previous week

(2/25)(2/18)

Gasoline

1,692

1,705

▼

-13 （-1%）

Jet fuel

771

736

▲

35

Kerosene (heating

1,339

1,462

▼

-123 （-8%）

Diesel oil

1,239

1,300

▼

-61 （-5%）

Fuel oil A

681

688

▼

-7

Fuel Oil C

1,663

1,712

▼

-49 （-3%）

Total

7,385

7,603

▼

-218 （-2.9%）

Oil)a week earlier

（5%）

（-1%）

3

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 46/2022

Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (1) Wholesale price revision trend

3

During February 21 – February 27, crude oil cost in yen decreased by 2.0 yen/l from a week earlier with a decrease in crude oil
price partly offset by the depreciation of the yen to the U.S. dollar and a decrease in adjustment fees of the Middle East crude oil for February
2023 shipment.
For the next week of March 2– March 8, Motouri companies decreased their real wholesale prices for gasoline, kerosene, anddiesel oil by 0.3 yen/l from a week earlier, because a subsidy of 17.0 yen/l from this week was added to an increase in the cost of 16.7 yen/lincluding the previous week’s subsidy of 18.7 yen/l.

Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (2) Spot (Gyoten) and futures price trend

3

Spot petroleum products prices in the February 21–
February 27 week increased for all oil products in all trading except
for the leveled off offshore kerosene and gasoline futures prices, andthe decreased kerosene and diesel oil futures prices compared to theperiod of February 14– February 20.
The latest onshore cargo spot price (the average onshore
rack price for four districts -- Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo, and Hanshin-- for February 21– February 27) increased by 0.2 yen/l from theprevious week for gasoline and increased by 0.5 yen/l for kerosene
and increased by 0.2 yen/l for diesel oil.
The average offshore barge spot price in Tokyo Bay
increased by 0.2 yen/l for gasoline, leveled off for kerosene andincreased by 0.1 yen/l for diesel oil on February 21– February 27
week from the previous week. The key average futures price leveled
off for gasoline and decreased by 0.2 yen/l for kerosene and decreased
by 0.5 yen/l for diesel oil from a week earlier.

(RIM)(Unit: yen/l)[4-district

Spot
Pricesaverage lorry

This week

Previous week

From a weekrack price](2/21 ～ 2/27)(2/14 ～ 2/20)

earlier

Regular

71.8

71.6

▲

0.2

Kerosene

75.6

75.1

▲

0.5

Diesel oil

74.6

74.4

▲

0.2

This week

Previous week

From a week

[Average](2/21 ～ 2/27)(2/14 ～ 2/20)

earlier

Regular

73.0

73.0

→

0.0

Kerosene

75.3

75.5

▼

-0.2

Diesel oil

76.1

76.6

▼

-0.5

(TOCOM)(Unit: yen/l)[Front-monthcontract/closing
price]

FuturesPrice

Above prices are before tax.
Reference (February 21 - February 27 actual data)

Products

Spot

Gasoline
Kerosene(Unit: yen/l)

Futures

Average

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.5

-0.2

0.2

Diesel oil

0.2

-0.5

-0.1

Fuel Oil A

0.3(Source) Spot: RIM 4-district average lorry rack price(Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo, Hanshin)
Futures: TOCOM average offshore barge spot price for Keihin District

4

Retail prices of petroleum products in JapanThe average retail service station price as of February 27 leveled off from a week earlier at 167.4 yen/l for gasoline, decreased by
0.1 yen/l to 147.5 yen/l for diesel oil and decreased by 2 yen to 1,995 yen for kerosene on an 18-liter tank basis (decreased by 0.1 yen/l to 110.8
yen/l) from a week earlier. The gasoline price leveled off for the second straight week. Diesel oil price decreased for the first two in three
weeks. Kerosene price decreased for the first time in two weeks.
Gasoline prices increased in 17 prefectures, leveled off in 13 prefectures, and decreased in 17 prefectures. The lowest gasoline priceamong the prefectures was 160.1 yen/l in Tokushima. The second lowest was 160.4 yen/l in Miyagi. The highest price was 180.8 yen/l in
Nagasaki. Kyoto logged the largest price hike of 0.7 yen/l from the previous week. The price leveled off in Kochi and 12 other prefectures.
Hyogo logged the largest price fall of 0.9 yen/l.
Retail gasoline price on the next price survey day March 6 is expected to level off or fluctuate slightly from a week earlier.

(Unit: yen/l)(Published byANRE)[Weekly

This week

Previous week

(2/27)(2/20)

earlier

Regular

167.4

167.4

→

0.0

Kerosene

110.8

110.9

▼

-0.1 08/8/11 132.1

Diesel oil

147.5

147.6

▼

-0.1 08/8/4

trend]

From a week

Latest high

08/8/4185.1

Nationwide average cash retail price(including consumption tax)

RetailPrice

Since April 2007, 2,000 service stations
have been covered.
Latest highs are highest levels since

167.4

October 2003.

4

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 46/2022

Gasoline price trend(2022/12/12 ～190.0

2023/2/27)（￥/Ｌ ）

（￥/Ｌ)

105.0

Left scale: retail prices

100.0

180.0

95.0

Retail price

170.0

90.0
160.0

85.0

TOCOM/ futures, Tokyo Bay

150.0
RIM (offshore barge)

80.0

140.0

75.0
130.0

70.0

RIM (onshore)
TOCOM/ futures, Chubu

120.0

65.0
Right scale: RIM and futures prices

110.0
12/12 12/19 12/26 1/10
Retail priceRIM (offshore barge)

1/16

1/23

1/30

TOCOM ( futures, Tokyo Bay)

2/20

60.0
2/27

TOCOM ( futures price, Chubu)

RIM (onshore)

2/6

2/13

(Note) ① Retail price includes consumption Tax, RIM, TOCOM prices are before tax.
② RIM (onshore) is the aberage of four district .

5

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 46/2022■ Announcement
This report is available at the center’s website (https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/).
The next issue (No. 47 ｆor 2022) will be announced on March 17.

On use of this report

Weekly Oil Market Review

The copyrights to texts, graphics and other information(hereinafter combined into “documents”) in this report belong
to the Oil Information Center of the Institute of Energy
Economics, Japan (hereinafter referred to as this Center), or
to third parties contributing the documents to this Center.
This Center forbids the documents from being repurposed,
duplicated or altered without approval by this Center.

In an interim report compiled in May 2004 by a petroleum
products market trend study panel sponsored by thePetroleum Distribution and Retail Division of the Natural
Resources and Fuel Department at the Agency for Natural
Resources and Energy, the panel stated, “We hope that theJapanese oil industry will solidify its market and price-finding
functions and that the oil industry as a mainstay industry inJapan will further enhance its rationality and vitality over a
medium term as industry people deepen their understandingof the need for rational price recognition based on market
and price-finding functions to be established in the oil
industry and for business decisions based on recognition
under the principle of self-responsibility.”This Center has made the documents comprehensive but noguarantee is made as to accuracy or safety.

In response to the report, this Center has published theWeekly Oil Market Review as a tool for oil-related people,
business administrators (particularly service station
managers) and ordinary consumers to accurately understandcrude oil and petroleum products supply and demand andprice trends, in cooperation with relevant organizations suchas the Petroleum Association of Japan and the Zensekiren(Japan’s Dealers Association) since May 2005.

Sources of data provided in this report① [Crude oil and petroleum products supply and demand](weekly PAJ report)
Data in weekly statistics on crude oil and petroleum productsupply by the Petroleum Association of Japan are calculated
in terms of 1,000 kiloliters. Shipments are estimated by thisCenter.
② [Crude oil and futures prices] (WTI crude and Middle
Eastern crude)
For the WTI crude, the front-month WTI crude futurescontract’s daily closing price on the New York Mercantile
Exchange (NYMEX) is adopted.

For the Middle Eastern crude, the front-month Middle
Eastern crude futures contract’s closing price on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) is adopted. ＊”Secondmonth (next-month) contract”
Underlying the Middle Eastern crude price is the average
price for the Dubai and Oman crude oil. The telegraphictransfer middle rate (TTM) released by the MUFG Bank isadopted as the foreign exchange rate.
The crude oil import CIF price is a dollar-denominatedreference price estimated by the PAJ based on the average
crude oil price (on a 10-day basis) in the Ministry of Finance
trade statistics.
③[Motouri wholesale prices of petroleum products in Japan]
Motouri wholesale prices are prices for transactions between
Motouri petroleum products wholesalers (primary wholesalers)
and their affiliates (secondary wholesalers).

Motouri companies modified their new pricing system in
April 2010 to decide specific policies in comprehensive
consideration of crude oil and petroleum products market
prices, each other’s prices and other data. In June 2014,
they modified the system further to give greater priority tocrude oil cost.
④ [Gyoten spot prices of petroleum products in Japan](RIM gyoten)
Onshore cargo spot prices are the average onshore lorryrack prices for the four districts of Tokyo, Kawasaki,
Chukyo and Hanshin in the Lorry Rack Report of RIMIntelligence Co.

⑤ [Futures prices of petroleum products in Japan](TOCOM)
Front-month petroleum products futures contracts’ daily
closing prices for TOCOM Tokyo Bay and Chubu are
adopted.
TOCOM Tokyo Bay prices are the average offshore barge
prices for the Keihin district. TOCOM Chubu prices are theaverage lorry rack prices in the Chubu district.
⑥ [Retail prices of petroleum products in Japan] (Weekly
trend survey)
Average cash retail prices at some 2,000 service stations
subject to a weekly nationwide survey are adopted (asreleased by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy).
The survey covers prices on Monday and is released at
14:00 on Wednesday (available on the website of the
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy).

6
Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp