Ken Xiansheng Hao(郝 憲生)
日本防災科学技術研究所

¨

1. Tangshan M=7.6 and Wenchuan M=7.9 Eqs¨

2. Disaster mitigation problems¨

3. A method to rapidly assess seismic intensity¨

4. Jogan and Tohoku Tsunami M=9.0 Eq.

¨

5. PSHM and Social Disaster AwarenessOverlaid bodies beside streets with smell
under sunburn > 30C

1976 Tangshan Earthquake
70% people were dead and injured in themillion people’s city

G Over 400,000 fatalities and injuries in Tangshan
earthquake(M7.8)

G People forgot the Earthquake after 32 years passed
G 90,000 fatalities and injuries in Wenchuan earthquake
G Just coincidence with what Torahiko Terada (寺田寅彦

1878-1935) said, “Disaster comes while people forget”.

Beichuan, XI, Li Jing, 2009

HST

33km

Leigu(L)6M

X - XI ②YX-BC f.

4.6m

HST
5M
3M
11/06/30

井口 隆氏による

G

Damage difference by a bird view from mountain
A few hundred meters from fault
Old buildings, around 1980’, Foundation on alluvium sediment

Seismic intensity IX - X

BeforeAfter

After NDRCC, SBSM, GoogleMap

4000 out of

57,000 lost唐山地震
震

汶川地震
震

Tangshan EQ

Wenchuan EQ

Year

1976/7/28

2008/5/12

32 yearstime

3:42 AM

14:28 PM

Reduced 1/2

Epicenter

39.60°N 118.20°E

31.099°N 103.279°E

Time of Epicenter
determined

4 hours

12 Minuts

Magnitude Mw (Ms)

7.5 (7.8)

7.9 (8.0)

Depth (km)1114

Max. Record PGA cm/s/s

58 at 154km

958 at 19 km

Maximum aftershocks Ms

7.1

6.4

Length of Faults, width (km)90, 10-15300, 30

GeographicalAlluvial Plain

Mountainous anddiluvial Plain

death toll

242,000

87,149360,000

0.36

injuried

167,539374,643

2.24Light injury

541,063

release date formal (days)

1207

population in heavy damage
areas
death in heavy damage
areas
Damaged and collapse
Houses (Civil)

1,061,926
135,919
6,293,800

比较Comparison(W/T)

3 ~ times

>3

0.53
16
14,370,000> 2~ times

0.01
13.53

76,0290.56

15,000,000

2.38

damaged Industral buildings

1,493,800

partial damaged Houses

1,386,000

Reservoir

245

2,437

9.95

Bridge

1,034

851

0.82

Area of Intensity > VIII~XI

9487

11,0001.16> 2~ times

Yeartime
Epicenter

唐山地震
Tangshan EQ汶川地震比较
Wenchuan EQ Comparison (W/T)

3:42 AM

14:28 PM

1976/7/28
39.60°N
118.20°E

determined
4 hoursMag. Mw (Ms)
7.5 (7.8)
Depth (km)11Max. Record
PGA cm/s/s
58 at 154km
Max. aftershocks 7.1
Faults L, W (km) 90, 10-15
GeographicalAlluvial Plain
death toll
242,000
injuried
167,539Light injury
541,063
Release (days) 1207

2008/5/12

31.099°N
103.279°E

12 Minutes
7.9 (8.0)
1432 years
Reduced 1/2

3 ~ times

958 at 19 km
6.4300, 30>3
Mountainous/diluvial Plain
87,149 360,000
0.36
374,643
2.24
0.53
160.01> 2~ times> 2~ times

Population distribution in damaged area

MaoXian
Li XianWenchuan

BeiChuan唐山地震
Tangshan EQ汶川地震Wenchuan EQ

3:42 AM
4 hours

14:28 PM
12 Minutes

GeographicalAlluvial Plain

Mountainous/diluvial Plain

Foreigner rescue No.

05257

Heavy machine arriving

4th day ~0 days ~Number of Rescue soldier 100,000

150,000

Yeartime
determined

Arriving Counties
Arriving Sub-Counties
Arriving villages

1976/7/28----

2008/5/12

32 years
Reduced 1/245.5hrs
82 hrs168 hrs
Rescue and Disaster mitigation

Lack information of Seismic Intensity which was urgently required by rescue as well
as disaster assessment.
Field investigation is main way but with bias.
Assessment of Seismic Intensity by pixel matching analysis from satellite information.

PALSAR(Phased Array L-band SAR ) ：70km x 70 km (~10 sec)
NE

Path

before EQ

after EQ

471

2008/2/29

2008/5/31

472

2007/1/28

2008/6/17

473

2008/2/17

2008/5/19

474

2008/3/5

2008/6/5

475

2007/6/20

2008/6/22

476

2008/4/8

2008/5/24

477

2008/4/25

2008/6/10

SW

Kobayashi (2008)

清平

Most of large fault displacements located in the Seismic Intensity
MMI of IX-XI zones spanning a region of 200 km x 30 km.
InSAR (phase) detected most of crustal deformations but failed inthe coherence loss zones, where severely damaged.
We found that Larger amplitude of offset displacements ( > 1meters) corresponded to heavily damaged regions, MMI of IX orgreater.

IX

XI

X

VIII

XI

Observed
Hao et al. GRL 2009

Seismic Intensity IX-XIzones, corresponded toheavy damaged areas.
Offset displacements (>1m; >2m) by the pixelmatching analysis wellrelated with IX-XI zones,but extended to Western
mountainous VIII areas.
Profiles a, b, c, d, ealong the Fault zone;and Profiles 1 to 71cross.

Of fsetdisp l a ce m e nts

1m by GPS

Offset Dis. by pixel-matchingabcde

O Hao, et al., (2009). Geophys. Res. Lett., 2009gl037971
by> 1m

S

S2

S3

> 1m

Observed Intensities

1m
2m
3m
4m

1m
2m
3m
4m

1) Larger offset displacements ( > 1 meters) correspond to heavily
damaged regions of a MMI of IX or greater in inland Earthquake.
2) InSAR (phase images) detected most of crustal deformations but
failed in the coherence loss zone. It was resolutioned by the pixelmatching analysis.

3) This method improves the seismic intensity distribution andsuggests the possibility of rapidly assessment of strong earthquake
damage areas.
4) Timely seismic intensity information for mitigation of disaster.

仙台空港

菅原大助・他2011

Tsunami deposit area in Jogan Eq. (red line)
and Tohoku Eq.(Green line) after 宍倉他2011

National Seismic Hazard Maps & Tohoku M9.0 EQ of JapanKisenoma,
Miyagi-ken

Seismic Intensity with 5% probabilityof exceedance in 50 year.

National seismic hazard maps for JapanLong term evaluation

Strong-motion evaluation

Probability of occurrence, magnitude, location

Strong-motion, underground structure

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps
・Showing the strong-motion
intensity with a given
probability, or the probability
with a given intensity.
・Considering all possible
earthquakes.

Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps
・Showing the strong-motion
intensity around the fault
for a specified earthquake.

郝 憲生 (Hao, Ken Xiansheng)防災科学技術研究所