IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 47/2022
March 17, 2023, Friday

Released every Friday

Publisher: Oil Information Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan■ Overview

Inui Bldg. Kachidoki, 10th Floor, 13-1, Kachidoki 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-8581 Japan
https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/weekly_oil/index.php

The key WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contract on NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) in the February 23- March 1 week moved within a range of $75.39 per barrel and $77.69/bbl.
On March 2, the key contract rose further for the third straight trading day to the strengthened expectations for China’s economic
recovery. China announced its robust Business Conditions Index for February 2023 on the previous day. The April contract closed at $78.16/bbl
up $0.47/bbl from the previous trading day.
On March 3, the key contract rose further for the fourth straight trading day due to the continued expectations for China’s economic
recovery and bull trend in the U.S. stock market. However, the key contract temporarily turned down by the announcement that the UAE wasconsidering withdrawal from OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). The April contract closed at $79.68/bbl up $1.52/bbl
from the previous trading day.
On March 6, the key contract rose further for the fifth straight trading day, reaching beyond the milestone of $80/bbl as the end pricedue to a sense of undervalued crude oil futures price by the ongoing depreciation of the U.S. dollar and the appreciation of the Euro and theannouncement of adjustment price hike of Saudi Arabia’s crude oil shipment bound for Asia for April 2023. However, the oil price rise wasrestricted by a downward revision of China’s economic growth target for 2023 in the National People’s Congress. The April contract closed at$80.46/bbl up $0.78/bbl from the previous trading day.
On March 7, the key contract turned down for the first time in sixth trading day due to strengthened concerns about recession in the
future and the ongoing appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Mr. Powell, Chairman of the U.S. FRB (Federal Reserve Board) stated a continuationand strengthening active interest rate rise in the U.S. congressional testimony. Furthermore, China announced a decrease of nearly 10% for both
export and import in its trade statistics for January and February 2023. Some of the market players recognized that it would take much time for
economic recovery, which was one of the factors for oil price decline. The April contract closed at $77.58/bbl down $2.88/bbl from the previous
trading day.
On March 8, the key contract turned down further due to strengthened concerns about recession caused by a continuation of interest
rate rise (Mr. Powell’s statement on the previous day). In addition, the U.S. announced its robust Employment Statistics on this day. However,according to the U.S. EIA (Energy Information Administration), the U.S. domestic inventory decreased as of the last weekend from theprevious week against the market expectations, decreasing for the first time in 11th week. The market players recognized robust oil demand,
which supported oil price level. The April contract closed at $76.66/bbl down $0.92/bbl from the previous trading day.
The Asian benchmark crude oil of Dubai for April delivery on the Tokyo market ranged from $81.10/bbl to $81.90/bbl on February
24 – March 1 week. It closed at $82.50/bbl on March 2, at $83.10/bbl on March 3, at $83.80/bbl on March 6, at $84.80/bbl on March 7, at$81.80/bbl on March 8.
On the foreign exchange market in the February 24- March 1 week, the dollar moved within a range of 134.19 yen and 136.41 yen. Itchanged hands at 136.15 yen in late trading on March 2, at 136.70 yen on March 3, at 135.92 yen on March 6, at 136.13 yen on March 8, at
137.35 yen on March 9.
According to preliminary 10-day trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance on March 7, the average crude oil import CIF
price for Japan in the mid-February period stood at 71,789 yen/kl (kiloliter), up 1,077 yen/kl from the previous 10-day period. In dollars, theprice was $87.80/bbl, up $0.84/bbl. The average exchange rate was 129.98 yen to the dollar.
Japan’s average retail price on March 6 leveled off from a week earlier for gasoline, increased by 0.1 yen/l for diesel oil, andincreased by 2 yen/l for kerosene on an 18-liter tank basis. The gasoline price leveled off for the third straight week. Diesel oil price increased
for the first time in two weeks. Kerosene price increased for the first time in eight weeks. The national average gasoline price was 167.4 yen/land mitigation measures against the extreme change in fuel oil were invoked again. The subsidy for the next week was 18.1 yen/l.
($/b)
From
Crude oilThis week

a weekearlier

Crude oil runs
Supply/ Topper capacity
Demand utilization rate

Crude oil inventories
Middle Eastern crude
oil (TOCOM)WTI crude oil(NYMEX)
Crude oil import CIF
price
Prices①Crude oil import
CIF price②Yen-dollar exchangerate
TTS exchange rate

From
a year earlier(1,000 kl)

2/26 ～ 3/4

2,927

▼

-169

▼

－

(%)

〃

79.0

▼

-4.5

→

－

(1,000 kl)

3/4

10,531

▼

-58

▲

－

($/bbl)

3/6

82.19

▲

2.72

▼

-36.0

($/bbl)

3/6

80.46

▲

4.78

▼

-38.9

($/bbl)Ｍｉｄ Ｆｅｂ

87.80

▲

0.84

▲

1.05

(yen/kl)〃

71,789

▲

1,077

▲

9,129

(yen/dollar)〃

129.98

▼

-0.70

▼

-15.15140.0[NYMEX]WTI crude oil

130.0[TOCOM]MiddleEastern crude oil

123.70121.51

120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0

(yen/dollar)

3/6

30.0
20.0
2020.4.20 WTI ▲37.63

10.0

136.92▲0.35▼-20.901

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 47/2022(￥/Ｌ)(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)
From
This week

Gasolinea weekearlier

912

Imports〃n.a.

Supply/DemandShipments

〃

836

▼

-6

▲

－

Exports

〃

120

▼

-21

▼

－

Inventories

3/4

1,647

▼

-45

▲

－

2/28 ～ 3/6

72.6

▲

0.8

▼

-9.5

2/28 ～ 3/6

73.0

→

0.0

▼

-10.6

3/6

73.6

→

0.0

▼

-11.4

3/6

167.4

→

0.0

▼

-7.2

Gyoten (spot) [4-district
average lorry rack price]

Pricescontract/closing price]

-57

▼

n.a.

－

n.a.

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)a weekearlier

Imports〃

n.a.

Shipments

〃

651

▼

-12

▼

－

Exports

〃

173

▼

-41

▲

－

Inventories

3/4

1,185

▼

-54

▼

－

average lorry rack price]

Futures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

-47

2/1

3/6
3/2

(￥/Ｌ)

▼

n.a.

Diesel oil (retail)

－

n.a.

155.0

150.0
147.6
148.2

(RIM)

(TOCOM/
Prices

▼1/3

a year earlier

769

Gyoten (spot) [4-district

165.0

From

2/26 ～ 3/4

Production

167.4

160.0

From
This week

Diesel oil

Supply/

170.0

160.0
12/5

*Gyoten and futures prices are before tax

Demand

175.0

168.1
(RIM)

(TOCOM/

Futures [front-month▼

Gasoline (retail)a year earlier

2/26 ～ 3/4

Production

180.0

From

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

2/28 ～ 3/6

74.6

→

0.0

▼

-9.0

2/28 ～ 3/6

76.4

▲

0.3

▼

-12.8

3/6

－

3/6

147.6

－
▲

0.1

145.0

－
▼

-6.6

*Gyoten and futures prices are before tax

140.0

12/5

1/3

2/1

3/2
1/17
3/6

(￥/Ｌ)
(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)

125.0

From
This week

Kerosenea weekearlier

2/26 ～ 3/4

291

Imports〃

n.a.

Shipments

〃

402

▼

-9

▼

－

Exports

〃

0

▼

-31

▲

－

Inventories

3/4

1,227

▼

-112

▲

－

2/28 ～ 3/6

75.3

▼

-0.3

▼

-7.9

Production

Supply/DemandGyoten (spot) [4-district
average lorry rack price](RIM)(TOCOM/
PricesFutures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

▼

-28

From
a year earlier

▼

n.a.

Kerosene (retail)

－

n.a.

2/28 ～ 3/6

75.0

▼

-0.3

▼

-8.3

3/6

76.3

→

0.0

▼

-5.7

3/6

110.9

▲

0.1

▼

-3.5

120.0

115.0

111.3

110.9

110.0

105.0

12/5

1/3

2/1

3/6
3/2

2

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 47/2022■ Relevant Information
Overseas crude oil prices
1
On the crude oil futures market for this week (from March 2 to March 8), WTI end price logged $78.16/bbl on March 2 and rose
until March 6, reaching the milestone of $80.46/bbl mainly by the expectations for China’s economic recovery. However, WTI end price turned
down further due to the statement of a continuation and prolongation of active interest rate rise made by Mr. Powell, Chairman of the U.S.
FRB. WTI end price logged $76.66/bbl on March 8.
According to the U.S. EIA Weekly Report announced on March 8, the U.S. domestic inventory as of March 3 decreased by 1.7
million bbl for crude oil from the previous week, which was against than the market expectations, decreasing for the first time in 11th weeks.
The market players recognized the robust oil demand in the U.S.
According to the EIA, the average U.S. retail price of gasoline as of March 6 increased by 4.7 cents per gallon from a week earlier to$3.389/gal (122.4 yen/l), increasing for the first time in five weeks. The average U.S. retail price of diesel oil decreased by 1.2 cents per gallonfrom a week earlier to $4.282/gal (154.7 yen/l), decreasing for the fifth straight week.
Baker Hughes reported on March 3 that the number of operating U.S. oil-drilling rigs decreased by eight units from a week earlier to
592 units, decreasing for the third straight week.

2

Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (1) Shipments

According to a weekly report by the PAJ (Petroleum
Association of Japan), inactive topper capacity in the February 26- March 4 week in 2023 stood at 105,000 barrels per day,decreasing by 0 bpd from the previous week (total capacity
remained at 3,331,000 bpd).
Crude oil throughput in the week decreased by
169,000 kl from the previous week to 2,927,000 kl. From a year
earlier, it decreased by 123,000 kl. The topper capacity utilization
rate stood at 79.0%, down 4.5 points from the previous week anddown 0.3 points from a year earlier.
Production increased from the previous week for FuelOil A and decreased for other petroleum products. Output was
down 5.9% for gasoline, down 10.5% for jet fuel, down 8.9% forkerosene, down 5.8% for diesel oil, up 5.1% for Fuel Oil A, anddown 21.7% for Fuel Oil C. Fuel Oil C imports in the week
totaled 89,000 kl, up 89,000 kl from the previous week. Diesel oil
exports aggregated 173,000 kl, down 41,000 kl from the previous
week.
Shipments (excluding imports) in the week increased
from the previous week for jet fuel, Fuel Oil A, and Fuel Oil C
and decreased for other oil products. From a year earlier,
shipments expanded for gasoline and Fuel Oil A and declined forother oil products. Gasoline shipments decreased by 0.7% fromthe previous week to 836,000 kl, decreasing for the first time in
two weeks. Shipments totaled 44,000 kl for jet fuel (up 72,000 kl

2from minus 28,000 kl in the previous week), 402,000 kl for kerosene(down 2.3% from the previous week), 651,000 kl for diesel oil (down
1.8% from the previous week), 260,000 kl for Fuel Oil A (up 10.9%
from the previous week), and 185,000 kl for Fuel Oil C (up 0.9%
from the previous week).
(Unit: 1,000 kl)
This week

Previous week

From
a week earlier(2/26 ～ 3/4)

(2/19 ～ 2/25)

Gasoline

836

842

▼

-6

（-1%）

Jet fuel

44

-28

▲

72

（-257%）

Kerosene (heating

402

411

▼

-9

（-2%）

Diesel oil

651

663

▼

-12

（-2%）

Fuel oil A

260

234

▲

26

（ 11%）

Fuel Oil C

185

183

▲

2

（1%）

Total

2,378

2,305

▲

73

（3%）

Oil)

This week’s shipments = (Previous weekend inventories + This week’s production+ This week’s imports) - (This week’s exports + This weekend inventories)

Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (2) Inventories

Inventories as of March 4 increased for Fuel Oil C anddecreased for other petroleum products. From a year earlier,inventories decreased for diesel oil and Fuel Oil A and increased
for other petroleum products.
Gasoline inventories totaled 1,647,000 kl, down
45,000 kl from a week earlier and up 11,000 kl from a year
earlier.
Kerosene inventories totaled 1,227,000 kl, down
112,000 kl from a week earlier and up 38,000 kl from a year
earlier.
Diesel oil inventories totaled 1,185,000 kl, down
54,000 kl from a week earlier and down 170,000 kl from a year
earlier.
Fuel Oil A inventories totaled 659,000 kl, down
22,000 kl from a week earlier and down 2,000 kl from a year
earlier.
Fuel Oil C inventories totaled 1,787,000 kl, up
124,000 kl from a week earlier and up 195,000 kl from a year
earlier.

(Unit: 1,000 kl)
FromThis week

Previous week

(3/4)

(2/25)

Gasoline

1,647

1,692

▼

-45 （-3%）

Jet fuel

745

771

▼

-26 （-3%）

Kerosene (heating

1,227

1,339

▼

-112 （-8%）

Diesel oil

1,185

1,239

▼

-54 （-4%）

Fuel oil A

659

681

▼

-22 （-3%）

Fuel Oil C

1,787

1,663

▲

124 （7%）

Total

7,250

7,385

▼

-135 （-1.8%）

Oil)

a week earlier

3

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 47/2022

Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (1) Wholesale price revision trend

3

During February 28 – March 6, crude oil cost in yen increased by 2.0 yen/l from a week earlier with an increase in crude oil priceand the depreciation of the yen to the U.S. dollar.
For the next week of March 9– March 15, Motouri companies increased their real wholesale prices for gasoline, kerosene, anddiesel oil by 0.9 yen/l from a week earlier, because a subsidy of 18.1 yen/l from this week was added to an increase in the cost of 19.0 yen/lincluding the previous week’s subsidy of 17.0 yen/l.

Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (2) Spot (Gyoten) and futures price trend

3

Spot petroleum products prices in the February 28– March
6 week increased for all oil products in all trading except for theleveled off gasoline futures, offshore kerosene, and onshore diesel oil
prices, and the decreased onshore kerosene and kerosene futures
prices compared to the period of February 21– February 27.
The latest onshore cargo spot price (the average onshore
rack price for four districts -- Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo, and Hanshin-- for February 28– March 6) increased by 0.8 yen/l from the previous
week for gasoline and decreased by 0.3 yen/l for kerosene and leveled
off for diesel oil.
The average offshore barge spot price in Tokyo Bay
increased by 0.7 yen/l for gasoline, leveled off for kerosene andincreased by 0.1 yen/l for diesel oil on February 28– March 6 weekfrom the previous week. The key average futures price leveled off forgasoline and decreased by 0.3 yen/l for kerosene and increased by 0.3
yen/l for diesel oil from a week earlier.

(RIM)(Unit: yen/l)[4-district

Spot
Pricesaverage lorry

This week

Previous week

From a weekrack price](2/28 ～ 3/6)

(2/21 ～ 2/27)

earlier

Regular

72.6

71.8

▲

0.8

Kerosene

75.3

75.6

▼

-0.3

Diesel oil

74.6

74.6

→

0.0

This week

Previous week

From a week

[Average](2/28 ～ 3/6)

(2/21 ～ 2/27)

earlier

Regular

73.0

73.0

→

0.0

Kerosene

75.0

75.3

▼

-0.3

Diesel oil

76.4

76.1

▲

0.3

(TOCOM)(Unit: yen/l)[Front-monthcontract/closing
price]

FuturesPrice

Above prices are before tax.
Reference (February 28 - March 6 actual data)

Products

Spot

Futures(Unit: yen/l)
Average

Gasoline

0.8

0.0

0.4

Kerosene

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

Diesel oil

0.0

0.3

0.1

Fuel Oil A-0.1(Source) Spot: RIM 4-district average lorry rack price(Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo, Hanshin)
Futures: TOCOM average offshore barge spot price for Keihin District

4

Retail prices of petroleum products in JapanThe average retail service station price as of March 6 leveled off from a week earlier at 167.4 yen/l for gasoline, increased by 0.1
yen/l to 147.6 yen/l for diesel oil and increased by 2 yen to 1,997 yen for kerosene on an 18-liter tank basis (increased by 0.1 yen/l to 110.9 yen/l) from a week earlier. The gasoline price leveled off for the third straight week. Diesel oil price increased for the first time in two weeks.
Kerosene price increased for the first time in eight weeks.
Gasoline prices increased in 15 prefectures, leveled off in nine prefectures, and decreased in 23 prefectures. The lowest gasoline
price among the prefectures was 160.2 yen/l in Tokushima. The second lowest was 160.4 yen/l in Miyagi. The highest price was 180.7 yen/l in
Nagasaki. Wakayama logged the largest price hike of 1.2 yen/l from the previous week. The price leveled off in Tottori and eight otherprefectures. Aichi logged the largest price fall of 1.0 yen/l.
Retail gasoline price on the next price survey day March 13 is expected to level off or fluctuate slightly from a week earlier.

(Unit: yen/l)(Published byANRE)[Weekly

This week

Previous week

(3/6)

(2/27)

earlier

Regular

167.4

167.4

→

0.0

Kerosene

110.9

110.8

▲

0.1 08/8/11 132.1

Diesel oil

147.6

147.5

▲

0.1

trend]

From a week

Latest high

08/8/4185.1

Nationwide average cash retail price(including consumption tax)

RetailPrice

Since April 2007, 2,000 service stations
have been covered.
Latest highs are highest levels since

08/8/4167.4

October 2003.

4

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 47/2022

Gasoline price trend(2022/12/19 ～190.0

2023/3/6)（￥/Ｌ ）

（￥/Ｌ)

105.0

Left scale: retail prices

100.0

180.0

95.0

Retail price

170.0

90.0
160.0
TOCOM/ futures, Tokyo Bay

85.0

150.0

80.0

TOCOM/ futures, Chubu

140.0

75.0
130.0

70.0

RIM (offshore barge)
RIM (onshore)

120.0

65.0
Right scale: RIM and futures prices

110.0
12/19 12/26 1/10
Retail price

60.0

1/16

RIM (offshore barge)

1/23

1/30

2/6

TOCOM ( futures, Tokyo Bay)

2/13

2/20

2/27

TOCOM ( futures price, Chubu)

3/6
RIM (onshore)(Note) ① Retail price includes consumption Tax, RIM, TOCOM prices are before tax.
② RIM (onshore) is the aberage of four district .

5

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 47/2022■ Announcement
This report is available at the center’s website (https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/).
The next issue (No. 48 ｆor 2022) will be announced on March 24.

On use of this report

Weekly Oil Market Review

The copyrights to texts, graphics and other information(hereinafter combined into “documents”) in this report belong
to the Oil Information Center of the Institute of Energy
Economics, Japan (hereinafter referred to as this Center), or
to third parties contributing the documents to this Center.
This Center forbids the documents from being repurposed,
duplicated or altered without approval by this Center.

In an interim report compiled in May 2004 by a petroleum
products market trend study panel sponsored by thePetroleum Distribution and Retail Division of the Natural
Resources and Fuel Department at the Agency for Natural
Resources and Energy, the panel stated, “We hope that theJapanese oil industry will solidify its market and price-finding
functions and that the oil industry as a mainstay industry inJapan will further enhance its rationality and vitality over a
medium term as industry people deepen their understandingof the need for rational price recognition based on market
and price-finding functions to be established in the oil
industry and for business decisions based on recognition
under the principle of self-responsibility.”This Center has made the documents comprehensive but noguarantee is made as to accuracy or safety.

In response to the report, this Center has published theWeekly Oil Market Review as a tool for oil-related people,
business administrators (particularly service station
managers) and ordinary consumers to accurately understandcrude oil and petroleum products supply and demand andprice trends, in cooperation with relevant organizations suchas the Petroleum Association of Japan and the Zensekiren(Japan’s Dealers Association) since May 2005.

Sources of data provided in this report① [Crude oil and petroleum products supply and demand](weekly PAJ report)
Data in weekly statistics on crude oil and petroleum productsupply by the Petroleum Association of Japan are calculated
in terms of 1,000 kiloliters. Shipments are estimated by thisCenter.
② [Crude oil and futures prices] (WTI crude and Middle
Eastern crude)
For the WTI crude, the front-month WTI crude futurescontract’s daily closing price on the New York Mercantile
Exchange (NYMEX) is adopted.

For the Middle Eastern crude, the front-month Middle
Eastern crude futures contract’s closing price on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) is adopted. ＊”Secondmonth (next-month) contract”
Underlying the Middle Eastern crude price is the average
price for the Dubai and Oman crude oil. The telegraphictransfer middle rate (TTM) released by the MUFG Bank isadopted as the foreign exchange rate.
The crude oil import CIF price is a dollar-denominatedreference price estimated by the PAJ based on the average
crude oil price (on a 10-day basis) in the Ministry of Finance
trade statistics.
③[Motouri wholesale prices of petroleum products in Japan]
Motouri wholesale prices are prices for transactions between
Motouri petroleum products wholesalers (primary wholesalers)
and their affiliates (secondary wholesalers).

Motouri companies modified their new pricing system in
April 2010 to decide specific policies in comprehensive
consideration of crude oil and petroleum products market
prices, each other’s prices and other data. In June 2014,
they modified the system further to give greater priority tocrude oil cost.
④ [Gyoten spot prices of petroleum products in Japan](RIM gyoten)
Onshore cargo spot prices are the average onshore lorryrack prices for the four districts of Tokyo, Kawasaki,
Chukyo and Hanshin in the Lorry Rack Report of RIMIntelligence Co.

⑤ [Futures prices of petroleum products in Japan](TOCOM)
Front-month petroleum products futures contracts’ daily
closing prices for TOCOM Tokyo Bay and Chubu are
adopted.
TOCOM Tokyo Bay prices are the average offshore barge
prices for the Keihin district. TOCOM Chubu prices are theaverage lorry rack prices in the Chubu district.
⑥ [Retail prices of petroleum products in Japan] (Weekly
trend survey)
Average cash retail prices at some 2,000 service stations
subject to a weekly nationwide survey are adopted (asreleased by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy).
The survey covers prices on Monday and is released at
14:00 on Wednesday (available on the website of the
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy).

6
Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp