IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES2008

Energy Technology Perspectives 2008
Scenarios and Strategies to 2050

Scenarios &Strategiesto 2050

Dr Peter Taylor
Acting Head, Energy Technology Policy Division
IEEJ Workshop, Tokyo, 7 July 2008

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

Backgroundz Request for alternative scenarios
by the G8 at the Gleneagles
summit (2005)z ETP2008 publication launched inTokyo on 6 June 2008z Conclusions reported to both G8
Energy Ministers meeting (June)and G8 Leaders summit (July)

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYGoals of ETP2008

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

z This is a study about the role oftechnology in reducing CO2 emissionsz It presents key technology roadmaps
that specify development needs
z The results can support enhanced
international technology cooperationz It is not meant for country target setting
in a post-Kyoto frameworkz It is not a study about climate policy
instruments

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

Content of ETP2008
z Scenario analysis¾ Baseline WEO2007 Reference Scenario¾ Global stabilization by 2050 (ACT)¾ Global 50% reduction by 2050 (BLUE) –consistent with WEO2007 450 ppm casez How to get there

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050¾ Short and medium term technology policyneeds¾ Special attention for technology roadmaps

z Technology chapters¾ Power sector¾ End-use sectors
In support of the G8 Plan of Action

INTERNATIONALENERGY© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ACT Scenariosz Energy CO2 emissions in 2050 backto the level of 2005z Revision of ACT as published inETP2006¾Options with a marginal cost up to
USD 50/t CO2 – worldwide (modeloutcome)¾Cost estimate has doubled fromETP2006

z ACT implies a significantly adjusted
energy system
In support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

BLUE Scenarios
z -50% energy related CO2 in 2050,
compared to 2005

¾ This could be consistent with 450 ppm(depending on post-2050 emissionstrends)z Options with a marginal cost of up toUSD 200/t CO2 needed (model outcome)

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050¾ Significantly higher cost with less
optimistic assumptionsz BLUE is uncertain, therefore a number ofcases neededz BLUE is only possible if the whole world
participates fullyz BLUE implies a completely different
energy system
In support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

A New Energy Revolution?

TechnologyPessimism

TechnologyOptimism

To bring emissions back to current levels by 2050 options
with a cost up to USD 50/t are needed. Reducing emissions
by 50% would require options with a cost up to USD 200/t.
In support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

Sectoral Energy Use

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

GDP 2050 is four times that of 2005 (growth3.3%/yr)
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYFinal Energy Use

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

Doubles in Baseline, significant savings in
Policy scenarios
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYPrimary Energy Demand

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

Important supply security benefits
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCY

Contributions of Technology
WedgesIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Baseline Emissions 62 Gt

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

BLUE Map Emissions 14 Gt

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCY

Sector Contributions

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

Emissions Reduction
ACTBLUEACT Map
Map
Map[%][%] [%]BLUE Map

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

[%]

Reference2005

2005 Baseline
Baseline
2050
2050-71-81-90

Power sector-43

Othertransformation
Transport

16-62-51-84

31-30-42-69

Industry

65-21-18-60

Buildings-2-41-36-61

Total

2-48-57-78

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYPower Generation Mix

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONAL¼ nuclear and fossil + CCS, nearly half renewablesIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

ENERGYAGENCYPower Sector CO2 Reductions

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYAverage Annual Power Generation
Capacity Additions, 2010 – 2050

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

Industry CO2 Reductions

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

25Other (efficiency +fuel switching)

2008

Emissions (Gt CO2)

20Electricity supply CO2
reductions
Electricity demand
reduction

15

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

CCS (energy+process)10

Indirect electricity
CO2 emissions
5Direct process CO2emissions
Direct energy CO2emissions

02005

Baseline 2030

Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 Blue Map 2050
INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

Industry Technology Areasz BAT potential 19-32%

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES¾Part of that will be taken up
autonomously2008z New technology is key¾CCS can play a special role
¾Life cycle perspective needed(systems options)¾Important opportunities for costeffective new technologies

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCY

Buildings & Appliances CO2Reductions

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

25

2008
Fuel switching andefficiency gains

Emissions (Gt CO2)

20Electricity savings
15

Electricity supply
CO2 reduction

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Indirect electricity
CO2 emissions

10GasOil

5Coal02005Baseline 2030

Baseline 2050 ACT Map 2050 BLUE Map 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCY

Buildings Sector Savings bySector and End-use in BLUE Map

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

Transport CO2 Reductions
18

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES162008

20

Emissions (Gt CO2)

14Hydrogen FCVs

12
Electrification
108Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Biofuels

64Conv. and Hybrid
Vehicle Efficiency

20CO2 emissions

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYPublic RD&D Trends in IEA

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

Private Sector RD&D Trendsz Private Sector - Difficult to get a correct picturezzzz

Data deficiency
Difficulty of decomposing large conglomerates RD&D
Impact of non-energy related innovations
Increasingly complex pattern – Privatisationz Top 10 Spenders (non-energy RD&D included)
Sector (in the 2000s)

2005 USD/yr

Power generation

2.2 – 2.6 billion

Oil and gas

4.0 – 5.2 billion

Automobiles

38 - 52 billion

Building

1.5 – 1.7 billion

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

Manufacturing
Chemical7 – 10 billion

Pulp and paper

600 – 640 million

Industrial metals

1.7 to 2.2. billion

Industrial equipment (global 8 firms)

13 – 15 billion

In support of the G8 Plan of ActionINTERNATIONALENERGY© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCY

Technology RD&D Needs

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

z Power generation

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050z Industry

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYEnergy RD&D – Key Messages

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

z Both public and private energy RD&D investments
have declined since the early 1980sz Current IEA Governments energy RD&D - USD 10billion/yrz Nuclear dominates government RD&D
z Companies energy RD&D - USD 40-60 billion/yrz Information about industrial energy RD&D trends isscarcez Unclear how much RD&D would be “sufficient” tomeet the goals¾ Literature suggests USD 10-100 billion/yradditional investmentsz Leave it to industry or role for government ?
z Cooperation or competition model ?
In support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

Total Cumulative Investment
Needs (2005-2050)

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategiesto 2050

Demand-side investments dominate additional investment needs above theBaseline scenario, energy efficiency helps to reduce upstream investment
needs in energy supply and transportation infrastructure
In support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

Cumulative Additional Investment inthe Electricity Sector (2005-2050)

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCY

Cumulative Additional Investment
in Industry (2005-2050)

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYINTERNATIONAL

Investment – Key Messages

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

ENERGYAGENCYz ACT: $17 trillion above Baseline (0.4% ofGDP)z BLUE: $45 trillion above Baseline (1.1% ofGDP)z Demand side investments dominate (80 %)z Even in BLUE undiscounted fuel savings
exceed additional investment needs
z The problem for BLUE is not just cost, but:
¾ ensuring timely investment, and¾ sharing the investment burdenz Current financing mechanisms are nowhere
near enough to achieve BLUE scenario© OECD/IEA - 2008

Roadmaps

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

17 technology roadmaps provide 87% of CO2 savings under the Bluescenarioz Potentials
z Pathways to commercializationz Technology targets
z How to get therez Key actions neededz Key areas for international
cooperation

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYKey Technology Options(Roadmaps)
z Supply side¾ CCS powergeneration¾ Nuclear III + IV
¾ Wind¾ Biomass – IGCC &co-combustion¾ Solar – PV
¾ Solar – CSP¾ Coal – IGCC
¾ Coal – USCSC¾ 2nd generation
biofuels
In support of the G8 Plan of Action

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

z Demand side
¾ Energy efficiency inbuildings¾ Heat pumps¾ Solar space andwater heating¾ Energy efficiency intransport¾ Electric and plug-invehicles¾ Fuel cell vehicles¾ CCS in industry¾ Industrial motorsystems© OECD/IEA - 2008

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

Roadmaps – Example CCS

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

10% of CO2 reduction potential in BLUE Map
ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCY

Roadmaps – Example Efficiency Buildings andAppliances

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

15% of CO2 reduction potential in BLUE Map

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050

INTERNATIONALENERGYIn support of the G8 Plan of Action© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYIEEJ:2008年7月掲載

Key Messages from ETP2008z Deep emission cuts are technicallyachievable¾ Significant investment required¾ Credible long-term targets needed

ENERGYTECHNOLOGYPERSPECTIVES

2008

Scenarios &Strategies
to 2050z This change is urgent¾ Capital stock turnover is slow
¾ Technology development needs time
¾ Non-cost barriers should be addressedz Global energy technology revolution
needed¾ Cooperation with DCs is essential
In support of the G8 Plan of Action

INTERNATIONALENERGY© OECD/IEA - 2008

AGENCYINTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

Thank You !

IEEJ:2008年7月掲載

peter.taylor@iea.org© OECD/IEA - 2008