Relocating Australian Communities at Risk:
Strategies and Actions in Timehttps://relocatingausatrisk.com

Authors
Project teamFurther information

Naomi Hay, Tony Fry, Roslyn Prinsley, John Handmer, Jeremy Mather, Milica
Muminovic, Noam Maitless, Mathew Gill, Owen Crofts, Jessica Van Son, Liam
Taylor.
Naomi Hay
School of Art and Design (SOAD), and Institute for Climate, Energy, and Disaster Solutions (ICEDS), Australian National University (ANU).
Tony Fry
Director, Studio at the Edge of the World and University of Tasmania (UTAS).
Roslyn Prinsley
Head of Disaster Solutions, ICEDS, ANU.
Jeremy Mather
Director, Mather Architecture.
Milica Muminovic
Faculty of Arts and Design, University of Canberra (UC).
Noam Maitless
College of Engineering, Computing and Cybernetics (CECC), and ICEDS, ANU.
John Handmer
ICEDS, ANU, and IIASA, Vienna.
Emi Cashman
SOAD, ANU.
Mathew Gill
University of Sydney (USYD).
Owen Crofts
ANU.
Jessica Van Son
ANU.
Liam Taylor
ICEDS, ANU.

Relocating Australian Communities at Risk
https://relocatingausatrisk.com
ANU Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions
https://iceds.anu.edu.au

Acknowledgments

DOCUMENT DESIGN:
Milica Muminovic, UC.
WEBSITE DESIGN:Emi Cashman, Naomi Hay, and Molly Dixon, SOAD, ANU.
ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT:
Alice Thwaites, ICEDS, ANU.
NATIONAL RELOCATION STRATEGY SCOPING WORKSHOP
13 -15 FEBRUARY 2023
This discussion paper and accompanying website developed from a transdisciplinary
workshop held in February 2023 at ANU. The authors wish to acknowledge andthank workshop hosts, facilitators, and participants for their valuable contributions tothis research.
HOSTED BY:
ANU ICEDS in collaboration with the School of Art and Design, ANU, and Studio at
the Edge of the World.
FACILITATED BY:
Tony Fry, Studio at the Edge of the World and UTAS, Naomi Hay, ANU, Roslyn
Prinsley, ANU, and Milica Muminovic, UC.
CONTRIBUTORS AND PARTICIPANTS:
Noam Maitless, ANU, Jeremy Mather, Mather Architecture, John Handmer,
ANU & IIASA, Carla Alzamora, ANU, Emi Cashman, ANU, Mathew Gill, USYD,
Owen Crofts, ANU, Jane Cassidy, GHD Design, Jenny Edwards, Lighthouse
Architecture and Science.

We acknowledge, celebrate, and pay our respects to all First
Nations Australians on whose traditional lands we meet and work,
and whose cultures are among the oldest continuing cultures inhuman history.

“Only avoidance and relocation can remove coastal risks for the
coming decades, while other measures only delay impacts for atime, have increasing residual risk or perpetuate risk and create
ongoing legacy effects and virtually certain property and ecosystemlosses (high confidence).”[1]1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

PREFACE

This issues paper contributes to an emerging yet crucial national conversation on thenecessity of developing and implementing a National Relocation Strategy for at-risk
communities in Australia. The document and accompanying website aim to foster
a comprehensive dialogue leading to the creation of new research, collaborations,
initiatives, and policy developments in light of the escalating risk faced by Australiancommunities in a changing climate. Tailored for policymakers, industry leaders,educators, media professionals, community organisations, and community members
alike, it aims to initiate a wide-ranging interdisciplinary conversation that extends
beyond current practices.
Climate change is impacting the lives and livelihoods of people globally, with asignificant percentage of Australia’s population living in areas increasingly exposed
to its effects and associated extreme weather events. As sudden-onset hazards
including floods, cyclones, and fires, alongside slow-onset hazards such as sea-levelrise, severe heat, and drought, displace people from their homes or compromise theirsafety, there is growing acknowledgement that planned relocation of communities
out of harm’s way will become an important factor in national decision-making.
Communities impacted by consecutive climate-related disasters are grappling withquestions of how and where to rebuild, with relocation emerging as an increasingly
necessary option to ensure future safety.
Given these circumstances, Australia will need to shift focus to the locations of its
communities, towns, and cities. Strategic planning across sectors and disciplines
will be important to ensure communities, industry and governments are taking
pre-emptive action to minimise risks, damage, and losses from climate-related
disasters. Developing a National Relocation Strategy, built upon evidence-basedrisk assessment, is crucial for progressing relocation strategies that place the safety,
dignity, and agency of people at the centre. While climate change affects communities
with varying intensity, structural and systemic factors escalate vulnerability, creating
disparities in access to the resources, support, and community capacity necessary todeal with the impacts.

VII`
It is crucial that discussions on planned relocation encompass the diversity ofknowledge and expertise within Australia. Any future relocation processes will need to
be well-planned, voluntary, graduated, and participatory, with community at the centre
of decision-making. First Nations communities, as the traditional custodians of thisland, have cultural and ancestral connections to place and have cared for Country formany thousands of years. Their knowledge will play a key part in developing strategies
for potential relocation scenarios and resettlement in the context of climate change.
The establishment of a National Relocation Strategy would aim to protect and enhance
lives. A national approach ensures policy coherence across governments horizontallyand vertically, facilitating long-term, adaptable, and sustainable processes based on
localised risk reduction knowledge. Developing a relocation strategy for Australiancommunities at risk involves identifying starting points for preventative action andnavigating cultural, social, environmental, economic, political, and institutional
complexities involved.
This document outlines the rationale for the need for such a strategy and offers
points of consideration for its design and implementation for at-risk communities.
Stemming from collaborations at an initial workshop held in February 2023 at theAustralian National University, Canberra, this project brings together researchers fromacross Australian universities and industry practitioners, with expertise in the fields
of design, architecture, philosophy, science, disaster science, social science, risk
and vulnerability, urban systems, and logistics. Above all, this project recognises thatthe challenges Australia faces will require vision, imagination, and informed criticalknowledge of climate futures. To address these challenges the project team invites
collaboration across government, industry, academia, and communities, aiming tobring together a network of people to continue this shared journey.

VIII

KEY MESSAGES

1. Creation of a National Relocation Strategy for Australian Communities at Risk
Relocating Australian communities at risk is the only way to protect people and infrastructure
vulnerable to some of the worst impacts of climate change. Planning for relocation should only
occur after exploring all other options for risk mitigation. This planning will require establishing an
enabling environment, including the development of a legal framework for implementing planned
relocation, conducting consultations, building capacity, and adopting a whole-of-government
approach. The establishment of a National Relocation Strategy would facilitate this process
eﬃciently and effectively while prioritising the safety, dignity, and agency of individuals andcommunities. Developing the strategy would require the formation of inclusive working groups,
encompassing diverse knowledge sources including affected communities, First Nations Peoples,a broad spectrum of industry professionals, governance at all levels, humanitarian organisations,and researchers. Further, an integral aspect of the strategy would include the establishment ofguidelines for planned relocation, modelled after those that have been developed internationally,
particularly in the Pacific Region.
2. Establishment of a National Relocation Authority
Climate change and the associated risk will impact the whole of Australia, necessitating anationwide approach. Upon its establishment, a National Relocation Authority would spearhead
the development and execution of the National Relocation Strategy, while collaborating withand supporting states, territories, local authorities, communities, and individuals throughout therelocation process. This Authority would collaborate closely with the Australian Climate Service(ACS), National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA), and state and local governments
to identify communities most vulnerable to risk. It would establish a framework to streamline
relocation planning, expertise sharing, resource allocation, and the implementation ofstandardised legal and economic processes. Moreover, the Authority would identify and establish
appropriate governance structures and support services. A consultative committee representing
key stakeholders, would collaborate with a government task force to define the structure, termsof reference, and operational model of this Authority.

IX3. Development of Dynamic Risk Mapping
Traditional static risk maps have limitations in modelling the complexity of compounding anddynamic risks. Mapped features undergo constant change, and risks are not discrete as
traditionally depicted; rather, they overlap and interact with each other. Developing evidencebased dynamic risk mapping is integral to understanding intersecting and compounding risks andcomplexity. Environmental, climatic, spatial, and vulnerability mapping that forecasts emerging
and future enviro-climatic risks serves to identify priority locations. Additionally, it aids in raisingawareness, fostering community dialogue, facilitating transparent communication among
government, industry, and community stakeholders, and guiding timely and strategic actions toensure community safety. This mapping initiative would be further developed in collaboration with
the ACS and other public and private agencies involved in mapping risk.
4. Development of Resource, Skills, and Logistics Registers
The Relocation Authority would establish registers containing information on public and private
sector resources, infrastructure, available land, machinery and equipment, and supply chainsrelevant for planned relocation. This would ensure that the necessary information for developing a
National Relocation Strategy is readily available. Concurrently with the risk mapping process, thisinvolves identifying potential existing materials for reuse, repurposing, and recycling, as well as
forecasting requirements for additional materials and resources pertaining to planned relocation.
Including an inventory of existing skills and expertise within the community in these registers isprovides an important service, allowing the development of feasible scenarios based on local
knowledge.

XTABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface
Key messages
Table of Contents
List of Figures
List of Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms
INTRODUCTION
What is Planned Relocation?

VII
IX
XII
XIII
XIV
XV
01
03

1.

CLIMATE IMPACTS, RELOCATION, and GLOBAL APPROACHES

1.1
1.2
1.3
Snapshot O1:
Snapshot O2:
Snapshot O3:

Planned Relocation is Not New
What the Science Tells Us
Global Approaches to Planned RelocationFiji
New York
Jakarta2.

THE CASE for a NATIONAL RELOCATION STRATEGY

2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
Snapshot O4:
Snapshot O5:

Cascading and Compounding Risk
Current Approaches are Inadequate
Protecting Communities and Environments
Strategic Value of Planned Relocation
GranthamLismore3.

STRATEGIES and APPROACHES

3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.10
3.11

Establishing Criteria for Relocation
Community at the Forefront
Understanding, Mapping, and Communicating Risk in Time
Designing Back from the Future
Viable Destination Sites
The Logistics of Planned Relocation
Restoration and Repurposing of Evacuated Land
Socioeconomic Benefits of Relocating to a Safer Place
Institutional Support, Funding, and Planning
Alignment Between States and Territories
Establishment of a National Relocation Authority

31
32
33
33
36
37
38
39
39
40
41

4.

KEY CONSIDERATIONS

43

5.

KEY POINTS FOR DISCUSSION

45

05
06
10
15
17
19

21
22
25
26
27
29

LIST OF FIGURES

Fig. 1.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 3.
Fig. 4.
Fig. 5.
Fig. 6.
Fig. 7.
Fig. 8.
Fig. 9.
Fig. 10.
Fig. 11.
Fig. 12.
Fig. 13.
Fig. 14.

XIII

Brian Cassey. Cyclone Yasi Boats. Photograph manipulation Jeremy Mather. Accessed 22 May,
2024. https://www.briancasseyphotographer.com/
Simmonds, Jamie and Cameron Davies. The First Relocated House Being Carried up Into the
New Estate. Photograph. 2011. Supplied.
Cashman, Emi. History of Global Migration. Screenshot. 2023. https://relocatingausatrisk.com/
Tom O’ Conner Photos. Extreme Heat Sign Death Valley. Photograph manipulation Jeremy Mather.
Adobe Stock. Accessed 22 May, 2024. https://stock.adobe.com/
Jamenpercy. Bushfire Smouldering in Australian Outback. Photograph manipulation Jeremy
Mather. Adobe Stock. Accessed 22 May, 2024. https://stock.adobe.com/
Kris. Violent Ocean Storm Surge Wave Hitting Coastal Wall in Jersey, UK. Photographmanipulation Jeremy Mather. Adobe Stock. Accessed 22 May, 2024. https://stock.adobe.com/
Math, Ramakrishna and Ramakrishna Mission Belur Math. Fiji Cyclone Relief. 2016.
Photograph. Accessed January 18, 2024. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Cyclone_
Relief_at_Fiji_(26262819276).jpg
Booher, Andrea. FEMA. Aerial view of homes that were ravaged by fire in the community ofBreezy Point, New York as a result of Hurricane Sandy. 2012. Photograph. Freepik. Accessed
January 18, 2024. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Breezy_Point_Sandy_fire.jpg
Nasarapa. Jakarta Skyline from Semanggi. Photograph. Photograph. CCo, via Wikimedia
Commons. January 10, 2024. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1c/Jakarta_
Skyline_from_Semanggi.jpg
Cashman, Emi. Existing Relocation Examples. Screenshot. 2023. https://relocatingausatrisk.com/
Davies, Cameron and Jamie Simmonds. Ink Sketches: Relocating Grantham. 2011. SuppliedHay, Naomi. One of many damaged and unliveable houses six months after the 2022 Lismore
floods. 2023. Photograph. Supplied.
Cashman, Emi. Interrelational Risk Mapping - Scenario 1. 2023. https://relocatingausatrisk.com/
Cashman, Emi. Interrelational Risk Mapping - Scenario 2. 2023. https://relocatingausatrisk.com/

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS

ACS
ADF
AIDR
ANU
CECC
COP
DCCEEW
GDS
GHG
ICA
ICEDS
IFRC
IOM
IPCC
NDCs
NEMA
NSW
PDD
PMF
QLD
SOAD
SDG
SFDRR
TFD
UC
UN
UNDRR
UNFCCC
UNHCR
USYD
UTAS
WHO

Australian Climate Service
Australian Defence Force
Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience
Australian National University
ANU College of Engineering, Computing and Cybernetics
Conference of the Parties (to the UN Framework convention on Climate Change)
Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment, and Water
Grantham Development Scheme
Greenhouse Gas
The Insurance Council of Australia
ANU Institute for Climate, Energy and Disaster Solutions
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
International Organisation for Migration
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Nationally Determined Contributions
National Emergency Management Agency
New South Wales
Platform on Disaster Displacement
Probable Maximum Flood
Queensland
ANU School of Art and Design
Sustainable Development Goals
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030
Task Force on Displacement
University of Canberra
United Nations
United Nations Oﬃce for Disaster Risk Reduction
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
University of Sydney
University of Tasmania
World Health Organisation

XIV

GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Adaptation – “Adaptation, in response tocurrent climate change, is reducing climate
risks and vulnerability mostly via adjustmentof existing systems. Many adaptation
options exist and are used to help manage
projected climate change impacts, but theirimplementation depends upon the capacityand effectiveness of governance anddecision-making processes”[2] as definedby the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). It may also involve socialtransformation.

to strengthening resilience and therefore to
the achievement of sustainable development.
Disaster risk reduction is the policy objectiveof disaster risk management”[4] as defined by
the AIDR.

Buybacks – the practice of any level ofgovernment in buying property in areas of highclimate risk where there is the expectationthat such risk will continue or worsen in the
future, thereby enabling the initial property
owner to purchase another property in a lowrisk area.

Capacity – the ability to acquire the material,
economic, psychological, and intellectual
means to respond to challenging changing
circumstances.

Disaster (here climate induced) – refers toa “serious disruption of the functioning of acommunity or a society at any scale due tohazardous events interacting with conditionsof exposure, vulnerability and capacity,
leading to one or more of the following: human,material, economic and environmental losses
and impacts”[3] as defined by the AustralianInstitute for Disaster Resilience (AIDR).
Disaster risk reduction – aims at “preventing
new and reducing existing disaster risk andmanaging residual risk, all of which contribute

XV

Displacement – the consequence of climate
and environmental risk or impacts that force
people to relocate from where they live. It
can also result from existential conditions ofmaterial and physical insecurity that affectpeople’s state of mind.

Capacity building – the creation of thoseconditions that enables individual andcollective coping capacity to develop.
Capacity (of) community – the collective
capacity of the social relations of a community
to relationally gain the means to cope withthe challenges it faces over time.
Climate change – in this document refers
to combined natural and anthropogenicallycreated structural changes to the climate
system.
Climate migration – the process of movement(forced or voluntary) from a location at risk

from, or experiencing, negative climate
impacts to another location where the risks
are relatively low now and into the future.

Risk mapping – combines the identificationof a specific risk and its transposition to a
specific geographic location.

Design back from the future – a method
where informed predictive environmental,social, and economic changes direct theparameters of design decisions and action to
enable the ability of whatever is designed toendure over time.

Scenarios – the representations of possible
future events or circumstances in order toconceptualise appropriate designed andplanned responses.

Futures – is used in this document toindicate that the future is plural but not empty
and is defined by the ongoing consequenceof past and present actions as they constrain
conditions of possibility.
Hazards – describes “a process, phenomenon
or human activity that may cause loss oflife, injury or other health impacts, property
damage, social and economic disruption, or
environmental degradation. Hazards may
be natural, anthropogenic or socionatural inorigin”[5] as defined by the AIDR.
Logistics – the process by which resources
are assembled and mobilised by available
means.
Planned relocation – the action that istaken once risk has been identified andseen to be serious. It requires having time
to find a relocation destination, acquiring
it, establishing the condition of occupation
with full community participation, and fullyorganising the process of moving.

Socio-economic futures – acknowledge thatsocial and economic change are indivisible
linked: the one always influences the other.
Sustainable/sustainability – describes“meeting the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs”[6] as outlined by
the World Commission on Environment andDevelopment. Current thinking is embodied
in the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals
which “are a call to action to end poverty
and inequality, protect the planet and ensurethat all people enjoy health, justice andprosperity.”[7]Viable destinations – destination sites thatcan be rendered sustainable.
Vector borne diseases – transmitted fromone location to another by biological means
able to travel, especially insects or animals.
Vector mapping – recognises that enviroclimatic and socio-ecological conditions
continually change. Any conventional map
that claims to represent change fails to do soas it just represents it in an arrested moment.

Relocation – in this document refers to anorganised process of community migrationfrom one place at risk to another settlementwith a viable low-risk long-term future.
XVI

INTRODUCTION
Relocation will become more often
essential for both successful climatechange adaptation and disaster risk
reduction. It is a measure of last resort
when adaptation in situ is no longer viable.
As the climate continues to warm andchallenge our ways of life over the coming
decades, many Australian communities
will need to relocate partially or fully toprotect people from impacts such as sea
level rises, storm surges, flooding, coastal
erosion, heatwaves, bushfires, droughts,
or lack of fresh water.
The unfolding and diverse impacts ofclimate change will present fundamental
threats to Australian settlements, towns,
and cities. Communities situated along
rivers, floodplains, low-lying coastlines,
in severely drought-affected areas andin regions confronting extreme heatand bushfires are all facing escalating
risks. These impacts are exacerbatedby environmental degradation, including
vegetation clearing, land destabilisation,
removal of coastal dunes and wetlands
and construction of hard surfaces in built
environments.
An increasing number of Australiancommunities will require partial or total
relocation to more viable sites in the
coming decades. In recent years, both inAustralia and globally, there has been asignificant increase in people displaced
from their homes and forced to decide01

whether to rebuild or relocate due toclimate-related hazards, assuming they
have the resources and capacities to doso. Between 2008 and 2022, an estimated
243,000 internal displacements occurred
across Australia due to disasters.[8] Events
such as the Grantham and Lockyer Valley
floods in 2011, the Black Summer Bushfiresof 2019-20 and the NSW Northern Rivers
floods in February and March of 2022 arejust a few recent examples of disasters
leading to displacement in Australia.
The scale, form, typologies, costs,
and timeframes of planned relocation
will be complex, presenting significant
challenges for Australian communities
at risk and straining policymakingprocesses, budgets, and capacities in
unprecedented ways. While relocation
will unfold over decades, if governments,
industry, and communities begin planningnow, the process of relocation will be
more effective and eﬃcient, resulting in far
less trauma than a recovery-led relocation
approach. The establishment of a National
Relocation Strategy for communities atrisk would acknowledge the enduringconsequences of climate change,
extending beyond current impacts, andpre-emptively manage the complexity ofmulti-scaled, staged relocation.

Fig. 1.

Cyclone Yasi Boats

What is Planned Relocation?
Governments
worldwideareactivelyplanning and implementing policies andstrategies for planned relocation. In Australia,
planned relocation strategies are alreadyunder examination by insurance groups.[9]Planned relocation, a dynamic concept,
holds the potential to safeguard lives,
assets and infrastructure from current andfuture harm induced by climate change.[10]It can be temporary, permanent, or cyclical.
Planned relocation is the process by which
a community facing climate or environmental
risk is supported and adequately fundedby government to move to a new location,
placing voluntariness, agency, dignity, andcommunity safety at its core. Fundamentally,planned relocation serves as a pre-emptive
approach to prevent disaster displacement
and support communities grappling with thechallenges associated with climate change.[11]Multiple relocation scenarios would need tobe considered based upon various climaticsocial,environmental,
andeconomic
conditions. These scenarios include partial
relocation, relocation of one or multiple sites
to a single destination location, relocationof a single site to multiple destinations andmerging one or multiple sites with an existing
settlement.
Planned relocation is intricate and sensitive.
A relocation strategy begins by developing
a process for the identification of at-risk
communities, and understanding the natureand level of risks they face over extended
time frames. Community participation
in identifying potential new locations,03

scale, and conceptual form, is crucial ingarnering support for relocation. Likewise,
considerationsofenvironmental
andcultural concerns, land acquisitions, funding
mechanisms and logistical challenges
require careful consideration and strategicplanning. First Nation communities, as the
traditional custodians of the land, have cared
for Country for thousands of years with
cultural and ancestral connections to place.
Their knowledge and guidance are importantin decision-making processes for relocation,
paying respect to traditional Indigenous
knowledge and perspectives and the rights
to practice culture and remain connected toancestral homelands.
With varying capacities and unequal accessto resources, not all communities affected bydisasters are impacted equally. People whohave experienced disaster displacement
may face further barriers to recovery due tostructural or systemic factors that worsen
vulnerability, with disasters exacerbatingsocial inequities and mental health issues.[12]Some people may choose not to relocate
due to various factors including financial,emotional, psychological, social, cultural, andintergenerational considerations. Although
loss, disruption, distress, and hardship cannot
be entirely avoided, strategically planned,
graduated and participatory relocation
processes implemented prior to disasters canhelp to mitigate these challenges. Planned
relocation for increasingly uninhabitablelocations will help to protect people fromfurther harm and provide necessary
resources, support, and services to rebuild
lives and livelihoods.

Fig. 2. The First Relocated House
Being Carried up Into the New Estate1. CLIMATE IMPACTS, RELOCATION, AND
GLOBAL APPROACHES
Globally and across Australia, the impactsof climate change are already exacerbating
food, water, and energy insecurity, eroding
livelihoods, cultural ties to the land andtraditional ways of life. This has led todisempowerment within communities andchallenges to social networks and stability.
As a result, a growing number of people
have either been displaced from their homes
or are at risk of displacement, prompting
diﬃcult decisions about relocating to safer
environments. With the escalation of climatechange effects, the frequency and intensityof disasters are also on the rise. Planned
relocation of communities out of harm’s way,
before locations become uninhabitable, will
be a crucial decision that governments willneed to address to safeguard individuals andcommunities.

1.1 Planned relocation is notnew
Relocation has been a central theme
throughout human history. After earlier
hominin migrations out of Africa 2 million
years ago, Homo sapiens dispersed acrossthe planet, apparently driven by the need forrefuge from climatic conditions and towards
securing water, food, and resources.[13]This global and regional nomadism,
coupled with the availability of various food05

types and climates, profoundly influenced
human development, health, and survival.
Consequently, humans have adapted toand significantly altered their surrounding
environment. Approximately 12,000 years
ago, the advent of agriculture, followed muchlater by urbanisation and industrialisation
which further transformed the environment,
led to systems that now drive climate-related
disasters and environmental degradation,and increasingly the likelihood that historicallysettled areas may become uninhabitable.
Within this global context, Australia has
a complex history of relocation. Despite
First Nations people nurturing and caring
for the land for at least 60,000 years,
the past 235 years have seen radical
ecosystem transformation, environmental
degradation, and biodiversity loss as a resultof colonisation, industrialisation, population
growth and poorly planned settlements.
There is history of government sponsoredand supported settlements, and Colonial andEuropean settler Australia saw planned or
publicly supported relocations for economic
and social purposes, including closer
settlement schemes in the 19th century andsoldier settlement and irrigation development
schemes and decentralisation policies in the20th century.
Planned relocation due to climate change,
disasters, or environmental degradation
is not a new phenomenon. Governments

worldwide have relocated communities toprotect them from climate-related disasters
and environmental changes. Such planned
relocations
have
been
documented
across all inhabited continents in at least
78 countries.[14] However, many of theseattempts have been characterised as adhoc, focusing primarily on mitigating risk inisolation of other societal variables.[15] Thishighlights the chronic lack of preparedness
and institutional guidance associated withclimate-induced relocation. Internationally,
the prevailing narrative emphasises thatsuccessful relocation entails effective
governance, community participation and thepreservation or enhancement of livelihoods,
rather than an approach that solely focuseson risk reduction.[16] [17] [18]1.2 What the science tells us
Whilst some disasters are immediate,situated, and easily recognisable, the samecannot be said for the ‘slow’ disasters ofclimate change. Past climate changes were
due to natural variations and events. However,recent climate changes are unequivocally due
to human activity and are accelerating due
to the release of greenhouse gas emissions(GHG) and other activities. As the effects ofaccelerated global warming grow, the riskof climate-induced displacement throughdisaster escalates.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), human activities haveunequivocally caused global warming.[19] TheWorld Meteorological Organisation reported
that the annual average global temperature in

2023 was 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above pre-industrial
levels.[20] Continued greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions will further increase warming.
Projected GHG emissions make it likely thatwarming will hit the 1.5°C midpoint in theearly 2030s; and possibly in the late 2020’s
under the highest emissions scenario.[21] The
current emissions trajectory also makes itchallenging to constrain warming below 2°C:
if current mitigation policies continue, we areheaded towards global warming of 3°C overthe century, according to the UN Environment
Programme.[22]The underlying drivers of GHG emissions
include unsustainable fossil-fuel energy
usage, land use practices and patternsof lifestyles, consumption and production
across individuals, regions, and countries.
Anthropogenic climate change is alreadycausing sea level rise and impacting weather
and climate extremes - leading to losses
and damage that disproportionately affectvulnerable communities. Global climate
projections include intensified global water
cycle variability – leading to more severe
floods and droughts, global monsoon
precipitation and tropical cyclones, extreme
variable weather patterns, heatwaves, fire
weather, and increased ocean acidificationand deoxygenation.
Furthermore, continuing sea level rise is now
unavoidable due to ongoing deep ocean
warming and ice sheet melt, with sea levels
expected to remain elevated for thousandsof years. Relative to 1995–2014, the likely
scenario for global mean sea level rise by
2100 is 0.28–0.55 meters, with the potential
for much higher levels. Current 1-in-100-year(or, 1% probability in any given year) extreme
sea level events are projected to occur at
06

Fig. 3.

History of Global
Migration

Fig. 4.

Extreme Heat Sign
Death Valley

least annually in over half of all tidegauge locations by 2100, while risks
to coastal ecosystems, populations,and infrastructure will continue toescalate beyond 2100.[23] Over the
next 2000 years, global mean sea
level is projected to rise by about 2–3
meters if warming is limited to 1.5°C
and 2–6 meters if limited to 2°C. Due touncertainty associated with ice-sheet
processes, global mean sea level riseof 2 meters by 2100 and in excess of
15 meters by 2300 (under the very
high GHG emissions scenario) cannot
be dismissed. Additionally, the IPCC
could not rule out sea level rise of 5
meters by 2150.[24] Flooding and storm
surge in coastal and low-lying regions
are further exacerbated by complex
scenarios, including subsidence inriver deltas, which are home to someof the world’s largest cities.
Climate change risks are becoming
increasingly complex and more diﬃcult
to manage, with compounding andintersecting climatic and non-climatic
risk. For example, biodiversity loss inland, freshwater and ocean systems,
decreasing food production andvariations in water availability lead toincreased risk of food insecurity.[25] Thisis compounded by competition for land
between urban expansion and foodproduction, competition for resources,
displaced populations, conflict, andpathogens. Increases in heat-related
human mortality and morbidity, foodborne, water-borne, and vector-borne
diseases and increased mental healthchallenges will all place populations atincreased risk.

There are two courses of required
action regarding climate change:
slowing its dynamic through mitigation(emission-reduction) measures andadapting to changing conditions. Future
success in reducing GHG emissions
will not prevent the ongoing effects ofclimate change. Therefore, mitigation
andadaptation
must
progresssimultaneously.
While
adaptation
planning and implementation haveprogressed across sectors andregions, responses are fragmented
and unequally distributed, with existing
gaps growing, along with evidence ofmaladaptation, particularly affecting
marginalised groups.[26] The reality
is that all or parts of an increasing
number of villages, towns, and cities,
will no longer be viable places forhuman occupation. We will need toadapt accordingly to the uncertainties
of climate change to survive theunprecedented levels of risk ourhuman settlements face.

1.3 Global Approaches toplanned relocation
At the end of 2022 there were an
estimated 71.1 million internallydisplaced people (IDPs) globally,
with 8.7 million of these displaced bydisasters, marking a 45% increase from2021.[27] The International Organisation
for Migration (IOM) estimates thatbetween 250 million and one billion
people will need to undertake a formof climate-induced human mobility by
10

Fig. 5.

Bushfire Smoulderingin Australian Outback

2050.[28] With the frequency, intensity
and severity of climate impacts on therise, an increasing number of countries
are recognising the need to movecommunities out of harm’s way.
Planned relocation has received
interest and support in policy
development at an international level.
This includes the Nansen Initiative’s
Protection Agenda in 2015, which
endorses “improving the use ofplanned relocation as a preventativeor responsive measure to disaster risk
and displacement.”[29] The Platform on
Disaster Displacement (PDD) is further
developing these recommendations,focusingonsupporting
policydevelopment and mapping planned
relocation in the context of disasters
and climate change.[30] The Conferenceof the Parties (COP) to the United
Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) identified
planned relocation as a form ofmobility with the potential to help
people adapt to the adverse effects
of climate change. The Task Force on
Displacement (TFD) was establishedin 2015 at COP 21 to “develop
recommendationsfor
integrated
approaches to avert, minimise andaddress displacement related to theadverse impacts of climate change”,
including planned relocation.[31] The
Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk
Reduction
2015–2030(SFDRR),of which Australia is a signatory,references planned relocations in thecontext of strengthening disaster risk
governance, contending it is important“to formulate public policies, whereapplicable, aimed at addressing theissues of prevention or relocation,
where possible, of human settlements
in disaster risk zones, subject tonational law and legal systems.”[32]
Numerous other international actors
and NGOs have also advocated forplanned relocations to be incorporated
into global processes and documents,
including IOM’s work in building
an evidence base and developing
materials
tosupportplannedrelocations.[33]The United Nations High Commissioner
for Refugees (UNHCR) published
Guidance on Protecting People from
Disasters and Environmental Change
Through Planned Relocation in 2015,
followed by A Toolbox: Planning
Relocations to Protect People from
Disasters and Environmental Change
in 2017.[34] The International Federationof Red Cross and Red CrescentSocieties (IFRC) also released Planned
Relocation in the Context of Disasters
and Climate Change: A Guide for Asia
Pacific National Societies in 2021.[35]The IFRC framework outlines planned
relocation stages as pre, during andpost-relocation,emphasising
theimportance of effective planning,
implementation,andsustainable
resettlement.
This is evidenced in national planned
relocation guidelines that have been
produced by the Solomon Islands
and Fiji’s 2018 Planned Relocation
Guidelines – A Framework to Undertake
Climate Change Related Relocation.
Both Pacific nations in the crux of12

climate displacement have structured
their guidelines around stages focusedon community-centred, humanitarian,and equitable responses. The Solomon
Island framework is a living document,
reflecting the ongoing nature ofrisk and the need for policymakers
to continually support relocatedcommunities throughout and after the
resettlement process. To ensure thatthe document embodies the current
social, environmental and politicalcontext of relocation, it is reviewed
every five years after consultation
with stakeholders.[36] Fiji developed
standard operating procedures forplanned relocation, to support thesuccessful
operationalisationofguidelines.[37] These align with Fiji’ssustainable
development
goals,
including gender equality, rights ofpeople living with disabilities, theelderly and marginalised groups and indoing so address the intersectionalityof risk.
Key themes emerging from theseframeworks include the importanceof determining set timelines andmeasures to address issues that will
likely occur and placing emphasis on
availability of suﬃcient, sustainablefunding.[38] Pacific countries havecontinuously called for a dedicated
Loss and Damage Finance Facility
to address both the economic andnon-economic losses and damages
associated with climate change and its
impacts, of which planned relocation
and resettlement is a key feature.[39]At COP27 in 2022, Parties agreed toestablish new funding arrangements
13

for assisting developing countries
that are particularly vulnerable to theadverse effects of climate change
in responding to Loss and Damage,including establishing the Loss andDamage Fund. While the COP28
Loss and Damage finance decision
operationalised the Loss and Damage
Fund and funding arrangements,
several processes still need to becompleted before Loss and Damage
funding can be dispersed.[40]Fig. 6.

Violent Ocean
Storm SurgeSnapshot O1: Fiji
Fiji, comprising more than 300 islands with a population of approximately one million, faces significant
vulnerability to climate change impacts, particularly due to low-lying areas and its exposure to tropical
cyclones. The aftermath of Cyclone Winston in 2016 prompted the Fijian government to establish Planned
Relocation Guidelines in 2018. Since 2016, twelve additional cyclones have struck Fiji, causing severe
negative consequences across environmental, social, cultural, and economic dimensions.
The recurrent cyclonic events, expected to persist at their current frequency but with increasing intensity,
contribute to high levels of widespread damage and loss of life. Coupled with heavy rainfall and rising sea
levels, these events heighten the risk of severe and more frequent flooding. As a result, numerous coastal
communities in Fiji are poised for relocation in the near future, with the government identifying over eight
hundred vulnerable communities and forty-eight in urgent need of relocation.
The relocation process has already commenced, with Vunidogoloa on the island of Vanua Levu being thefirst settlement to undergo this transformative move. Vunidogoloa was grappling with a history of coastal
flooding and erosion, which, together with sea level rises and heavy rains inundated homes and destroyed
crops. Discussions about moving were initiated in 2004 and by 2006, the community of 150 residents
approached the provincial government seeking assistance for relocation. The relocation of Vunidogoloa tohigher ground was successfully completed in 2014, marking a crucial step in addressing the community’svulnerability.
However, challenges emerged during the relocation process. Despite government assurances, the promised
construction of new houses with kitchens did not materialise. In response, villagers took matters into theirown hands, using salvaged materials from their abandoned homes to build kitchens for their new houses.
Another challenge involved securing land for crop cultivation. Although the relocation presented cultural
challenges for the families involved, it stands as a testament to proactive efforts in addressing the imminent
threats posed by climate change.[41] [42]Fig. 7.

Fiji Cyclone ReliefSnapshot O2: New York

Hurricane Sandy, at the time the largest Atlantic hurricane on record in terms of diameter, struck the East
Coast of the USA in October 2012, causing nearly $70 billion in damage. New York, in particular, bore asignificant brunt with 17% of the city being damaged, leading to extensive dysfunction. Since then, the city
has faced exposure to an additional twenty-five hurricanes and tropical storms, though none as severe as
Sandy.
New York already experiences severe flooding, particularly affecting low-lying and low-income communities.
In response to these challenges, individuals with financial means opt to relocate to more secure areas.
Currently, nearly 1.7 million people, constituting 20% of the city’s population, reside within or adjacent to
the extended, vulnerable coastal floodplain estimated for 2050. Approximately 400,000 individuals in theseareas, primarily in low-income neighbourhoods, are at risk of displacement due to storm surges, coastal
flooding, and rising sea levels. While post-Sandy funding has been allocated to rebuilding and recovery, thefocus on the crucial issue of relocation has gained traction only recently.
The Rebuild by Design initiative in collaboration with Milliman, an international actuarial and consulting
firm based in Seattle, has been actively studying risks, the impacts of flooding, population displacement
and strategies for relocating residents to safer areas within the city. Even before the arrival of the next
major disaster, New York is grappling with a housing emergency. For the city, the question is not whether
to relocate or not, but when to take decisive action in the face of an increasingly uncertain and vulnerable
future.[43]Fig. 8.

Aerial View ofBreezy PointSnapshot O3: Jakarta

Indonesia’s capital city Jakarta, situated on the island of Java, is one of the world’s most densely populated
cities and faces significant threats from climate change. With a population exceeding 30 million, this sprawling
mega-city grapples with severe pollution, perpetual traﬃc congestion, regular flooding, and earthquakes.
Adding to its climate vulnerability, Jakarta is one of the fastest sinking cities globally due to continuous
extraction of groundwater. Since 1978, parts of the city have subsided by up to 4 meters, heightening its
susceptibility to recurrent flooding from rain and high tides, tsunamis, and coastal surges - events expected
to increase in frequency due to climate change.
In response, President Joko Widodo unveiled plans in 2019 to establish a new capital city named Nusantara
in East Kalimantan, located on the island of Borneo. Kalimantan is four times larger than Java and is
strategically located in the country’s centre. The aspirations for Nusantara are ambitious, with plans that thecity will be powered by renewable energy, transforming it into a technologically advanced hub fostering a
new green economy and work culture. Nevertheless, this endeavour presents its own set of environmental
challenges, including biodiversity and natural habitat loss from deforestation and the displacement ofindigenous communities. Moreover, ensuring water security for a burgeoning population and adapting topotential extreme climate events such as droughts and wildfires remain pressing concerns.
Indonesia’s announcement to relocate their political capital is one of the first examples of a central
government-sanctioned, methodical, large-scale migration in the modern Anthropocene era. However, thecity’s construction requires clearing vast areas of tropical rainforest and wildlife habitat, creating ongoingenvironmental impacts. Furthermore, socio-cultural problems may be exacerbated, particularly for indigenous
communities such as the Dayaks. Historically, the Dayaks have faced displacement to make way for palm
oil plantations, mining operations, and paper production. The construction of a new capital city is likely tointensify these challenges, leading to conflict and disruption of traditional ways of life for indigenous peoples.
[44] [45] [46] [47] [48]Fig. 9.

Jakarta Skyline

2. THE CASE for a NATIONALRELOCATION STRATEGY
In Australia, between 2008 and2022, approximately 243,000 internal
displacements have been attributed
to disasters.[49] Disasters triggeredby natural hazards pose a significant
economic
burden,costingtheAustralian economy an average $38
billion per year. This figure is projected
to rise to $73 billion per year by 2060,
considering factors such as population
growth, climate change and escalating
property values. For instance, the 2022
South East Queensland floods alone
incurred estimated social, financial,and economic costs of $7.7 billion.[50]The IPCC contends further climatechange in Australia is inevitable, with
impacts cascading and compounding
across sectors. Socioeconomic costsof climate change in Australia have
escalated, with extreme heat leading
to excess deaths and increased
rates of illness. Declining agricultural
production and financial and emotional
stress in rural communities haveresulted from increased droughts,
and significant costs associated withextreme weather events. Heightened
coastal flooding from sea level risecombined with high tides and storm
surges have impacted on culturalsites, traditions, and lifestyles ofAustralia’s First Nations Peoples.[51]Given that over 85% of Australia’s
21

population resides within 50km fromthe coast, sea-level rise is already amajor concern, expected to worsen in
the future.[52]The impacts of climate change areexacerbatedbysocio-economic
stressors, including rising cost-ofliving pressures, an affordability
crisis in rental and home ownership,escalating insurance premiums andlimited insurance availability in highrisk locations. The devastating floodsin the Northern Rivers of New South
Wales in February and March 2022
demonstrate the scale and complexityof the issue, revealing systemic
institutional, governance and funding
failures post-disaster. Locations suchas Lismore are still in the slow processof recovery more than two years
after the disaster, with many people
remaining in temporary housing
and unable to return home, reopenbusinesses, or access necessary
funding for relocation (refer to thesnapshot on Lismore).

2.1
CascadingCompounding Risk

andAustralia is confronting cascading
and compounding risks in the wakeof shifting climate patterns, affecting

food, water, energy and health security, as
well as infrastructure, built environments,
community safety, lives and livelihoods.[53]For instance, the 2019-20 Australian Black
Summer bushfires cost around $20 billion
in total,[54] burned 5.8 to 8.1 million hectares,
decimating the habitats of threatened species,
destroying 3,000 houses and claiming 33
lives.[55] Moreover, an additional 429 deaths
and 3230 hospitalisations from cardiovascularor respiratory conditions were linked to thefires. Health costs were estimated at AUD$1.95 billion, with insured losses estimatedat AUD $2.3 billion and additional losses in
tourism, hospitality, agriculture, and forestry
estimated at AUD$3.6 billion. In addition,
Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions
doubled.[56]These cascading and compounding risk
scenarios exacerbate existing stressors andconstrain adaptation options. Addressingthese challenges requires new knowledge
on system complexity and risk management
to navigate uncertainty moving forward, withpriorities according to the IPCC including:“a greater understanding of impacts
on natural system dynamics; theexposure and vulnerability of different
groups within society, including
Indigenous Peoples; the relationshipbetween mitigation and adaptation; theeffectiveness and feasibility of different
adaptation options; the social transitions
needed for transformative adaptation;and the enablers for new knowledge
to better inform decision-making(e.g., monitoring data repositories,
risk and vulnerability assessments,
robust planning approaches, sharing
adaptation knowledge and practice).”[57]

2.2 Current Approaches are
Inadequate
The IPCC recognises a key challenge will be
the inability of institutions and governancesystems to manage the scale and scope of
projected climate impacts, overwhelming
the capacity to provide necessary policies,
services, resources, and coordination toaddress socioeconomic impacts. While
processes in Australia are strengthening
acrossnon-governmentorganisations,businesses, communities and governments,
the predominant focus has been on adaptation
planning rather than on implementation, withcurrent adaptation efforts incremental andreactive.[58] Effective adaptation requires a
shift from reactive to anticipatory planning,
coordination across levels of governance,
sectors and institutions and sustained funding
and strategic policy commitment.[59]Since the 2019-2020 Black Summer
bushfires, funding, and processes to increase
hazard resilience -including the revamping ofAustralia’s National Emergency Management
Agency, the National Disaster Risk Reduction
Framework and Commonwealth Disaster
Ready Fund - have significantly improved.
However suﬃcient, sustainable ongoingsources of funding limit Australian relocation
attempts.
Currently, there is no overarching framework
guidingplannedrelocation
practiced
domestically. In response, IAG commissioned
a report in 2023 to explore enablers andbarriers for planned relocation in Australia.[60]Furthermore, Suncorp Group and Natural
Hazards Research Australia released a
discussion paper in November 2023 calling22

23

Fig. 10. Existing Relocation
Examples24for a national conversation about assisted
relocations. Policy ideas proposed include;
the development of a national map of natural
hazard risks; evaluation of a small numberof assisted relocation planning trials building
on buybacks already underway in QLD
and NSW; participation of local councils incommunity co-designed trials to develop aplan for engaging with First Nations peoples;and a long-term plan for a natural hazards risk
map to indicate zones to be considered for
future infrastructure and housing upgrades,or funding for assisted relocation.[61]The Insurance Council of Australia (ICA)
has advocated for a resilience budget
boost, proposing the establishment of an
ongoing fund of $250 million per year by
the Australian Government, matched bystates and territories, to buy back and raise
homes exposed to extreme flooding. Thisinitiative aims at supporting approximately
750 families annually to relocate out of flood
danger zones.[62] This is recommended inaddition to the existing Resilient Homes
Funds in Queensland and New South Walesand the $200 million per year for five years
Commonwealth Disaster Ready Fund.
Models established to address these issues
will need to be sustainable over time asclimate impacts intensify, incorporating
input from community, industry and not-forprofit sectors and supported by government
initiatives and funding. In the absence of anational strategy, communities lack guidance
and resources to take pre-emptive action.
Australia will need to develop mechanisms
facilitating sustainable relocation from highrisk areas, prioritising the preservation of
lives, livelihoods, communities, and cultural
identity.[63] [64]25

2.3 Protecting Communities andEnvironments
Planned relocation emerges as a proactive
and effective strategy for protecting
communities from risks associated withclimate change and environmental hazards,
while also fostering economic and social wellbeing. It is crucial to acknowledge that poorly
planned and underfunded relocation efforts
may disproportionately harm marginalisedcommunities.[65] [66] To ensure equitable andjust implementation of planned relocation,
First Nations guidance is important alongsidecommunity-led processes. The potential
benefits of planned relocation, developed
and managed within a community-led andsupported framework, include:•

Enhancing public safety: Planned
relocation can reduce risk to people andproperty, minimising extreme disruptions
caused by enviro-climatic disasterevents.

•

Improving health and well-being: It has
the potential to mitigate negative healthand mental health impacts related todisaster events and anticipated disasterevents.

•Strengthening community resilienceand capacity building: It can scaffold
community resilience and capacity
building by reducing exposure todisasters, promoting the developmentof social networks, and fostering agency
and shared purpose.

•

Preserving natural ecosystems: It may
aid in preserving and rehabilitating•

natural ecosystems in environmentallysensitive or hazard-prone areas.

•

Creating new economic opportunities:
It has the potential to promote thedevelopment of new businesses,
industries, and jobs in areas not subject
to disaster events.

•

Reducing building and infrastructure
costs: It can lower construction andmaintenance costs by reducing theneed for costly repairs, upgrades, andreconstruction post-disaster events.

•

Improving urban environments: It canfacilitate improved urban environments
through thoughtful planning, design, andconstruction, incorporating enhanced
greenspaces,transportation,
publicspaces, housing typologies, materials,
energy eﬃciency and healthy buildings.

•

Improving resource security: It canenhance community access to fresh
water and land for food production,
bolstering resource security.

civilian capacity to respond to climate-driven
disasters needs to expand as the ADF
increases its focus on regional security atthe expense of domestic disaster response.
Proposals to achieve this have included
forms of a ‘national civilian service’ and theredirection of existing government employees
in disaster response.[67] [68] However, thisapproach will likely be insuﬃcient in theface of an ongoing climate crisis punctuatedwith extreme events. A National Relocation
Strategy is increasingly necessary to alleviate
the need for repeated defence responses
to climate-driven disasters, scaffold civilian
capacity, underscore the strategic importanceof siting new settlements, ensure water,food and resource security and safeguard
communities.

2.4 Strategic Value of Planned
Relocation
Climate change, food insecurity and conflictare expected to displace populations globally,
potentially leading to significant border security
issues. This blurs distinctions between
Australian Defence Force (ADF) defensive
and climate impact roles, contributing to acomplex and evolving geopolitical landscape.
The ADF outlined its position toward climatechange in the 2023 Defence Strategic
Review. An implication of the review is that26

Snapshot O4: Grantham

Situated within the Lockyer Valley in Queensland, Grantham supports a thriving agricultural community thatis vital as one of the nation’s primary food production hubs. In 2011, the Lockyer Valley faced a major flood,
triggered by a severe storm that sent a wave of water down the Ranges from Toowoomba, devastating
towns in its path including Grantham, situated on Lockyer Creek. The floods resulted in the tragic loss oftwenty-one lives. In Grantham, nearly every house of the floodplain sustained structural damage, with 29
destroyed and 130 severely damaged.
In response to these impacts, the Queensland Reconstruction Authority, in collaboration with the Lockyer
Valley Regional Council, initiated the Grantham Development Scheme (GDS). Funding from both the federal
and state government supported this comprehensive effort, which addressed future flood risk, the needs of
disadvantaged community members, the devaluation of land and property and the availability of housing
lots safe from future floods.
The GDS implemented new planning measures and acquired 377 hectares of land, which was subdivided
into housing lots and designated for other community requirements. This allowed for the exchange ofabandoned lots for more viable alternatives. The Queensland Reconstruction Authority expedited housing
construction and the first families were relocated eleven months after building works commenced.
In meeting the immediate needs of the community, the relocation process was regarded as a success.
However, it is essential to acknowledge that some individuals did not receive financial or relocation support
and were left on the floodplain. The process represented a crucial step in addressing immediate challenges,
but the need for sustained efforts and comprehensive solutions remains, especially for those who continue
to reside in vulnerable areas.[69] [70] [71]27Fig. 11. Ink Sketches: Relocation
Grantham by C.D. and J.S.

Snapshot O5: Lismore

In the early hours of 28 February 2022, unprecedented flooding occurred across South-East Queensland,
Northern NSW, and parts of Western Sydney due to extreme rainfall. Lismore, a regional city in NSW
situated at the convergence of the Wilson’s River and Leycester Creek, was particularly devastated.[72]Despite predictions of flooding, the scale and rapid rise of the waters caught many residents off guard, withfloodwaters reaching 14.4 metres in some places, surpassing previous flood peaks by more than 2 meters.
Approximately 31,000 people, out of a population of around 45,000 were affected. Adding to the catastrophe,
a second major flood impacted the Lismore area on 30 March 2022, exacerbating the damage. The local
First Nations community, the Widjabul people of the Bundjalung nation, was particularly badly impacted by
the floods. However, their media organisation, the Koori Mail, provided and continues to provide a range ofpractical support and leadership for both First Nations people and the wider northern rivers community.[73]The disaster highlighted inadequacies and malfunctions in rainfall and water monitoring systems, warning
systems and institutional responses, which meant that the warning systems failed, leaving little time for
evacuation or preventive measures. Lives were lost, people were forced onto their roofs and homes,
businesses and infrastructure were destroyed.
Government assistance continues to be rolled out. Priority for buy-backs, house raising and retrofitting isbased on the expected flood height and velocity in the most likely scenarios. However, the criteria for thesemeasures rely on historical flood data rather than up-to-date information from 2022, causing uncertainty
within the community. Some residents have received offers, while their neighbours have not, leading to
confusion about the parameters being used. Initially, residents were informed that about 6,000 homes would
be targeted under the scheme, but only 1,500 homes are now included. The process has been slow anddisruptive. Approximately 1,100 homes are receiving offers in the first round, with 632 buyback offers madeas of October 25, 2023. The shortage of available, affordable housing in the Northern Rivers exacerbates
the challenges, making it extremely diﬃcult for people to afford to re-establish their lives in the same area,even if a buy-back offer is made.[74] [75]A recently announced agreement for 400 new homes located well above the Probable Maximum Flood(PMF) in Lismore aims to help alleviate the region’s housing crisis. Of the 400 home sites “a number ofthe serviced lots will be made suitable for the relocation of existing homes from flood affected areas.” [76]The agreement serves as an example of a cooperative approach to major new developments. Southern
Cross University in Lismore has provided the 72ha site for this initiative. The New South Wales (NSW)
Government will develop the site, including infrastructure provision, while the NSW Reconstruction Authority
has allocated $15 million to facilitate the purchase of homes through the Resilient Homes Program before
they are available on the open market. The houses are anticipated to be available for sale from 2026.[77]29Fig. 12. One of Many Damaged and Unliveable
Houses six Months After the 2022 Lismore Floods

3. STRATEGIES and APPROACHES
Planned relocation is a complex process
requiring a holistic societal approach,incorporatingabroad
spectrumofstakeholders including First Nations People,
federal, state, territory, and local governments,
industry,
not-for-profit
organisations,environmental groups, landowners, businessowners, community groups, and individuals.
Developing a comprehensive strategy forplanned relocation will require a multifaceted
approach, starting with establishing criteria
for relocation. Once a site has been
identified as requiring relocation, a suite ofrelocation scenarios would be developed,
each necessitating tailored responses.
Central to the strategy will be prioritisingcommunity agency to ensure that the needs
and preferences of affected populations
guide planning efforts. The adoption of a new
approach to mapping - dynamic vectorial
mapping- is crucial for detailed geographic
and risk analysis, facilitating precise andinformed decision-making against specificcriteria.
Foresight and pre-emptive planning ensurethat future challenges and opportunities
are anticipated, and that communities areprepared before emergencies escalate.
Finally, in selecting destination sites, carefulconsideration would need to be given toenvironmental sustainability, infrastructure,
economic prospects, and social compatibility
to support the long-term resilience andprosperity of relocated communities. Each of
31

these factors would collectively contribute toa robust and effective relocation strategy andare discussed in more detail below.

3.1 Establishing
Relocation

Criteria

forDecisions regarding planned relocation will
be influenced by a wide range of factors. An
important criterion for success depends upon
the degree of risk averted, which correlateswith the proportion of at-risk individuals
successfully relocated away from harm’s way.
Mapping of risk over time contributes to theidentification of the severity and frequencyof hazards, as well as vulnerability andexposure of communities to these hazards.
Other criteria include risk tolerance, landavailability, and the willingness of community
stakeholders to engage and participate
in the process. Recently, the AustralianGovernment Department of Climate Change,
Energy, the Environment, and Water(DCCEEW) released a National Climate Risk
Assessment: First Pass Assessment Reportwhich includes a high-level assessment of
the risks to communities and infrastructure.
Some of the criteria used in this report are
useful to the development of a relocation
strategy[78].
While the immediate impacts of disasters
are evident, their long-term effects on
the environment, economy, society, andpsychology can be profound. Decisions related
to relocation are complex and establishing
the criteria for relocation will be a priority.
Persuasive reasons, compelling evidence,
and a robust legal basis will be necessary
for undertaking planned resettlement,[79] asemphasised in Fiji’s Planned Relocation
Guidelines, which acknowledge that “planned
relocation within Fiji does represent an optionof last resort.”[80].
The form, scale, timeframes, and logisticsof planned relocation will be complex andunique to each location. There are multiple
relocation scenarios that will likely occur
dependent upon local social, environmental,
and economic conditions. These scenarios
include but are not limited to:
1. Partial relocation, where an existing
settlement spans low and high-risk areas.
2. Relocation of one or multiple sites to asingle destination greenfield location.
3. Relocation of a single site to multiple
destination sites.
4. Relocation of one or multiple sites thatcombine with an existing settlement.
In most cases, the relocation process will bestaged and protracted, with locally specificenvironmental, economic, social, cultural,and historical values to be considered.

society approach, with decisions formulated,developed, and overseen within the affected
community. The well-being of relocatedindividuals should be a central priority, with
their perspectives and values incorporated atevery stage.[81] [82]Recognising that not everyone will be willing
to relocate despite understanding the risks,planned relocation presents multifacetedsocial, economic, cultural, and logisticalchallenges. Effective relocation will require acomprehensive and integrated approach that
addresses technical, legal, regulatory, andsocial complexities. This includes strategies
such as robust communication, stakeholder
engagement, scenario planning, alternative
land use planning, site selection, design of
new built environments, and financial andlegal incentives to encourage relocation.
Drawing on diverse perspectives, local
knowledge, scientific insights, and inclusive
engagement processes enhances capacityand ensures locally appropriate and sociallyacceptable solutions.[83] Communities andindividuals possess varying capacities,
strengths, vulnerabilities, and access toresources. Prioritising equity and justice inplanning and implementation, along withinterventions addressing inequities basedon income, gender, ethnicity, disability, age,and other factors, and allocating appropriate
resources will be crucial elements of theplanning process.[84]3.2 Community at the Forefront
Approaches to planned relocation should
empower communities to envision andshape their own future environments. This
process requires a comprehensive, whole-of32

3.3 Understanding, Mapping,and Communicating Risk inTimeWhile data on flooding, sea level rise, coastal
erosion, heatwaves and fires, highlights therisks facing many Australian communities,
conveying the full complexity of these risks
is challenging through data alone. Rebuilding
or retrofitting to withstand future impacts may
be appropriate and viable in some locations,while relocation from high-risk areas may benecessary in others. To make well-informed
decisions, governments, industry, andcommunities will need to comprehensively
understand the risks through evidencebased risk mapping, guided by clear criteria
established by the affected communities.
Currently, risk maps identify areas ofAustralia that are, or will be, exposed tosuch risks as flooding, sea level rise, orincreasing temperatures and are criticalin communicating data and projections on
emerging risk.[85] [86] Traditional static risk
maps, however, are limited in their capabilities
to model the complexity of emergent anddynamic risk, as whatever is currently mappedis undergoing constant change. Further, risks
are not discrete, as traditionally mapped:
instead, they overlap and impact upon eachother. Current data and images alone do notdeliver suﬃcient evidence of intersecting andcompounding levels of risk across climatic,
environmental, cultural, social, and economic
situations.
Vectorial mapping, which represents space,time, magnitude and direction of complex
situations and their relational nature, offersa solution. Dynamic risk mapping outlines33

situations where risk is a moving process
and where impacts of climate change interact
with and exacerbate drivers of insecurity
and instability. Risks can be recognised andpre-emptively engaged with before theymaterialise. This approach has strategic
value for communities, industry, and policy
makers, offering better projections ofemerging enviro-climatic risks and informing
timely strategic planning for safer futures. By
representing risk in real-time and continuously
revising strategic relocation planning,dynamic risk mapping facilitates dialogues
with communities and supports engagementwith risk across diverse stakeholders. It is
proposed that this mapping initiative would
be developed in collaboration with the ACS,
NEMA, and other public and private agencies
already involved in mapping risk.

3.4 Designing Back from the
FuturePlanned relocation requires designing-in-time
to deal with current and future risk. Designingback from the future, rather than towards it,
recognises that the future is not empty - it isfull of the consequences of human activity on
the planet, such as climate change, pollution,and environmental degradation.
Within this framework, planned relocation
efforts will need to acknowledge thatareas currently classified as low risk may
transition into high-risk zones in the future.
Adopting anticipatory and adaptive planning
strategies is essential, focusing on futureoriented design approaches aimed at
mitigating potential risks. Merely reacting toongoing crises is insuﬃcient, increasingly
costly and endangers lives. Instead, risk

Fig. 13. Interrelational Risk
Mapping - Scenario 1

Fig. 14. Interrelational Risk
Mapping - Scenario 2

reduction through pre-emptive action isthe cornerstone of responsible adaptation
and relocation practices. This approachnecessitates
foresight,
thinking
intime and recognition of the long-term
practical, economic, social, cultural, andpsychological benefits of placing thesafety of communities front and centre.

3.5 Viable Destination Sites
Identifying
viablerelocationsites,
characterised by reduced risk andsuitability in terms of geography,
environment, and climate, is an essential
initial strategic priority. Sustainable andsuccessful relocation in the long-termhinges on communities being provided
with suitable land, essential services,
and infrastructure. These provisions are
essential for communities to maintain orenhance sources of income, livelihoods
and employment opportunities while
preserving their cultural practices andvalues.[87] Moreover, destination sites willneed to be attractive to the community, with
their active involvement integral to every
stage of the decision-making process.
This approach will help ensure that therelocation is in line with the community’s
needs, preferences, and aspirations,fostering a sense of ownership andempowerment throughout the transition.
There will be requirements for rezoning ofland and complex legislative issues relating
to land tenure. With a few exceptions,state and local governments possess theauthority to rezone or acquire land within
their jurisdictions. Most acquisitions are forurban and infrastructure development andsupport commercial developers. Statutes

outline these processes, which typically
include provisions facilitating government
flexibility and granting Ministers broad
discretionary powers. Disputes typicallyrevolve around compensation, althoughlandowners often profit financially fromthese transactions.
Exceptions
includefederalland,reserved areas like national parks, land
protected by legislation (e.g., containing
endangered species), or subject to
Native Title claims, notably Crown land
(excluding certain state-owned areas
such as some infrastructure and National
Parks). Australia has historically followed
English land law, with the state andfederal governments having power over
all land. However, the 1992 High Court
decision in Mabo recognised Native Title,
acknowledging in Common Law that First
Nations people always had and continue
to have rights in land and water. [88] Native
Title applies unless extinguished bygovernment actions such as selling or
granting freehold. It affects approximately
40% of Australia, typically conferring nonexclusive rights over the land.[89]States implement specific processes for
major developments, such as NSW’s
Rezoning
Pathways
Programfordevelopments of ‘strategic importance’.[90]While these can be state-led, they haveprimarily been led by developers withstate support. A significant challengewith large greenfield developments is thenecessity for substantial infrastructure
and the failure to provide this has stalledsome proposed developments.

36

Rezoning alone does not render the landdevelopment-ready. Unless it is Crownor state land, property owners usuallymust agree to sell to developers or facecompulsory acquisition by the state.
Many of these land and zoning issues
associated with major developments
can be circumvented through negotiatedagreements, as demonstrated by the2024 East Lismore plan and the 2011
Grantham relocation (see the snapshots).

a community, while others necessitate therelocation of entire communities. Somewill transition to greenfield locations,while others will integrate with existing
communities. The logistical processof relocation is intricate, entailingthe establishment of a new site andsubsequent migration over time. A
sophisticated supply chain is vital toensure the timely and accurate delivery of
all items to their designated locations.

When relocation involves integrating withan existing settlement, a key issue to beaddressed is the level of integration into
the receiving or host community.[91] Earlyattempts to relocate Carteret Islanders in
the 1990s highlighted this issue, as manyfamilies returned home due to a failure
to integrate new arrivals within the hostcommunity.[92] Failures of ad hoc retreats
are typically characterised by insuﬃcientongoing government funding and a lackof investment in adequate social andphysical infrastructure to support thegrowing population.[93] Additionally it is
crucial to ensure that the living standards ofexisting settlements are either maintained
or improved throughout the process.

Preserving existing assets holds inherent
value. In extensive relocation projects,
careful consideration and coordination are
required for relocating houses, structures,and infrastructure. The preservation ofheritage structures and features plays acrucial role in both conservation efforts
and maintaining community continuity.
Where relocating complete structures
proves impractical, opportunities exist for
repurposing existing building components
and recycling remaining materials for
new construction at destination sites.
The process of disassembly, reassembly
and transportation will require careful
coordination.

3.6 The Logistics of Planned
Relocation
Plannedrelocation,encompassing
people,economies,
infrastructure,
institutions and built environments, is amultifaceted and long-term endeavour.
Within this framework, various relocation
scenarios emerge, each presenting
unique challenges. Some instances
involve relocating only a small portion of
37

Furthermore, there will be a need for
new housing, facilities, services, andinfrastructure, leading to increased
requirements for materials, skills, plant,
and equipment. However, the availability
and distribution of these resources may
not align with the areas in need. Detailed
planning is crucial for new site storage,
material inventories, workforce selection,
skill requirements and managementtransition
betweenlocations.
Transportation modes and timing needto align with construction and storage

capacities at the new location. Therefore,
quantifying and mapping available
resources is essential, with collaborationfrom industry and government associations
to produce resource registers. These
efforts should be integrated with ongoingrisk mapping processes. By correlating
communities at risk with the location ofprojected resources, an audit process
can be undertaken, and a supply chain
strategically planned for feasible action
scenarios.
Adapting social and economic structures
to the new environment, preferably
before relocation, is paramount. Careful
logistical consideration is essential indeciding what to move and how to moveit.[94] Conservation of resources, waste
minimisation and protection of culturalvalues are paramount, as is ensuring
operational continuity during institutional
and workplace transitions, such as
schools, hospitals, and businesses.

3.7 Restoration and
Repurposing of EvacuatedLand
The repurposing of land and assets due
to planned relocation requires a holistic
approach that balances ecologicalrestoration, community needs andsustainable development. In somecases, communities may prefer sensitive
heritage, memorial, and cultural sites
to remain in situ, requiring ongoing careand maintenance. Careful considerationis crucial for repurposing evacuated land,
especially in partial relocation scenarios.
Following relocation, land left behind israrely repurposed for commercial benefit
and left neglected, which can lead tothe lowering of remaining neighbouring
property values.[95] Therefore, it isessential
toconsiderappropriate
rezoning, restoration, and repurposingof this land for alternative uses suchas nature conservation, provision of
ecosystem services, agriculture, tourism,
recreation, or other low-impact purposes.
Additionally, the potential for adaptive
reuse of remaining buildings for alternative
low-risk non-residential purposes should
be examined. Further, provisions willneed to be in place to support community
members who choose not to relocate,ensuring ongoing access to necessary
services and facilities.
Critical considerations for equitable, just,and inclusive restoration include identifying
and preserving heritage sites, recognising
the land’s role in maintaining community
identity and ensuring equal access toresources and benefits from repurposed
land. Additionally, creating community
spaces, green spaces and promoting
reforestation,
wetlandrestoration,
habitat restoration, soil remediation andwater quality improvement are vital forenvironmental sustainability and resilience
to disasters triggered by natural hazards.
Developing
sustainableagriculture
practices, renewable energy projects andrecreational/educational opportunities onabandoned lands can further contributeto regional sustainability while fostering aculture of conservation.

38

3.8 Socioeconomic Benefitsof Relocating to a Safer Place
Addressing the socio-economic issues
associated with planned relocationnecessitates a balanced approach,acknowledging the intricate interplay
between economic, environmental, andsocial factors. Through careful planning,collaboration, and innovation, it is possible
to transform challenges into opportunities
for sustainable economic development.
The significant upfront costs of planned
relocation should be viewed through two
distinct timeframes. Firstly, considering the
economic, social, and psycho-emotionalcosts of not relocating—essentially losing
everything. Secondly, assessing the costsof relocation, including economic, social,
and psycho-emotional aspects, offset
by benefits accruing over time. Thesebenefits stem from various community
investments—economic, physical, mental,
and emotional. While acknowledging thepain of loss, the potential of relocation
should be communicated clearly andembraced as an opportunity.
There are many potential opportunities
and benefits. Benefits of moving to asafer, less stressful environment include
reduced exposure to risk and theconsequences of environmental disasters
on everyday life, well-being, health, andthe local economy. Relocation presents
an opportunity for economic innovationand the renewal and enhanced provisionof social, cultural, health and educational
facilities. Relocation to a lower-risk
environment should lead to more
39

affordable insurance costs and minimised
repair expenses from disasters triggeredby natural phenomena. Carefully plannedlarge-scale relocation has the potential
to generate employment opportunities,
diversify local economies, attract tourism
and investment, stimulate economic
growth and with local and government
support foster research, training, andeducational opportunities. Additional
opportunities include new industries forrelocation, reuse and recycling of existingbuilt environments and restoration ofexisting sites. The process has thepotential to encourage innovation andthe development of knowledge andskills, while fostering information sharing
between and within communities.

3.9 Institutional Support,
Funding, and Planning
The most successful relocation programs
are anticipatory rather than reactive.[96] To
ensure successful relocation, appropriate
pre-relocation measures will need to
be in place, including suﬃcient funding,detailed action plans and community
participation.[97] This ensures eﬃcientand equitable allocation of resources,
preventing haphazard decision-making
based on limited resources available during
disasters. Without these considerations
taken into account in the pre-relocation
process,
communities
mayface
detrimental impacts, leading to decreased
uptake by residents. For instance, in thecase of relocation in Newtok, Alaska,
issues including a lack of public services
and a school at the destination sitecaused delays. Families chose not torelocate until a school was built, while
the district delayed building a school
until twenty-five families relocated.[98]Such stalemates should be avoided
for smooth transitions and mutual trust
between governance, stakeholders, andcommunity. To achieve this, mechanisms
will need to be in place prior, during andfollowing relocation to ensure ongoing
and meaningful participation in decisionmaking within the community.[99] [100] [101]This includes effective communication
across all stakeholders, providing updates
on progress, budgets, emerging issues,
and responses to problems.
Another important consideration is
ensuring an adequate supply of housing,
services, and infrastructure throughout
the relocation process.[102] Following
the recent floods in Queensland (QLD)
and NSW, institutional approaches are
emerging to support and fund house
relocation and modification. Examples
include the QLD Resilient Homes Fund[103]and the NSW Northern Rivers Resilient
Homes Fund,[104] each co-funded by
the Australian Government and state
governments. These initiatives highlightthe significant challenges, costs andtimeframes pertaining to modification or
relocation, even for limited numbers ofhouses. (See the snapshots of Grantham
and Lismore, above.)
Alignment at the different levels ofgovernment is crucial to ensure a
consistent and coherent approach which
responds to these challenges. Similar to
the National Energy Transition Authority
established in 2022[105] to address a policy
gap in national planning, coordinationand funding, a National Relocation
Authority would collaborate with state,
territory, and local governments, aswell as communities, industry, and First
Nations groups. This reflects the shared
responsibility of all levels of government
in assisting key regions and communities
in managing relocation.

3.10 Alignment Between
States and Territories
A robust framework for cooperation
between the Commonwealth and state
and territory governments, outlined ina National Relocation Strategy andoverseen by the National Relocation
Authority, would address the interstatechallenges in relocation. Australia’s
federated system requires alignmentof relocation strategies across various
jurisdictions to enhance eﬃciency andfairness, ensuring broad access torelocation options for communities.
National-level strategic policies andincentives are crucial for coordinatinga unified approach to relocation acrossdifferent levels of government.[106] The
Commonwealth is uniquely positioned tocoordinate and guide state and territory
practices concerning relocation. By
facilitating complex stakeholder, resource,
and policy alignment, as it already does
through institutions such as NEMA, theDepartment of the Prime Minister andCabinet, and the National Cabinet, theCommonwealth can ensure efforts are not
duplicated, best practices are consistently
adopted, and national resources forrelocation are optimally utilised.

40

The effective management of relocationin Australia is also intricately tied tothe constitutional powers and financial
responsibilities distributed between thestate and federal governments. Whilestates have authority over planningand development, the Commonwealthoften shoulders a large portion of thefinancial burden of disaster recovery.
These challenges highlight the need fora strategy that addresses the current
variability between different jurisdictions’approaches to relocation.[107]
NSW has initiated the developmentof a state policy for large-scale multihazard managed relocation, drawing on
the Northern Rivers’ experience, under
the NSW State Disaster Mitigation Plan
2024.[108] The policy will be delivered by
the NSW Reconstruction Authority andthe Department of Planning, Housing,and Infrastructure by mid-2025. However,other states lack similar initiatives intheir disaster management, response,
recovery, and/or resilience plans.[109] [110][111] [112] [113]

NSW and QLD Reconstruction Authorities
haverecently
implemented
homebuyback schemes through the Resilient
Homes Program and Resilient Homes
Fund respectively.[114] [115] However, theseschemes are limited in scope and location.
They have been introduced following
disasters and have not been incorporated
into a broader state-wide pre-emptive
and strategic risk-based approach torelocation. These disparities in approaches
between states underscores a significant
gap in policy coherence. Consultations
for the soon-to-be-released National
41

Adaptation Plan have identified assisted
relocation as a pivotal cross-cutting issue,
necessitating clear role definitions andcoordination across the country.[116]The establishment of a National Relocation
Authority would be pivotal in this context.
Serving as an independent custodianof the National Relocation Strategy, it
would ensure continuity and consistency
across various electoral cycles, which isessential given the politically sensitive
nature of relocation. The Authority
would facilitate institutional connections
between federal and state agencies
engaged in reconstruction and planning,
thereby improving communication andcooperation. Additionally, it would instil
greater confidence in the building anddevelopment industry across Australia.

3.11 Establishment of a
National Relocation Authority
A National Relocation Authority would
be established to execute the National
Relocation
Strategy
andprovidecoordination and assistance to states,
territories, local authorities, communities,
and individuals throughout the relocation
process. This Authority would develop aframework to optimise relocation planning,
expertise, knowledge sharing, resource
allocation, and the establishment ofcommon legal and financial processes.
Additionally, it would identify and establish
suitable governance and support services.
Working groups would be appointed todevelop the structure, terms of reference,and operational model of this authority.

Local community relocation efforts require
support and management across various
areas, including risk data gathering, landacquisition, legal matters, coordination
across states and councils, resource
management, social support, financial
assistance, economic planning, andtechnical aid. While state Reconstruction
Authorities, such as those in Queensland
and NSW, are addressing some of these
aspects in key locations, coordinatingthese efforts within a coherent Nationalframework would maximise knowledge
sharing, expertise, resource allocation,and the establishment of common legal
and financial processes and support
services.

While reaching agreements with insurers tocontribute relocation costs is conceivable,
many individuals in high-risk areas
struggle to afford insurance or encounter
limitations in coverage, exacerbating the‘insurance protection gap.’ Additionally,
numerous households and communities
lack the savings for independent rebuilding
efforts. Exploring innovative financing
approaches for relocation, including
government funding, private investments,
and public-private partnerships, as well as
addressing barriers to the use of insurance
for relocation and funding essential risk
reduction measures, is imperative.

The functions of the National Relocation
Authority would reflect those of the recently
established National Energy Transition
Authority.[117] This independent statutory
authority possesses the necessary
powers to steer the energy transition,
safeguarding workers and communities
while maximising the opportunities andbenefits of a zero-carbon economy.
Similarly, the National Relocation Authority
would be endowed with funding, advisory,and potentially regulatory functions,
guiding the development of plans at bothstate and regional levels. Given the criticalimportance of these issues to Australia’s
future, reliance solely on market forces
is inadequate, necessitating longterm development through appropriate
authorities.
Central to the success of relocation efforts
is adequate funding. Government fundingfor disaster recovery is often insuﬃcientand delayed, imposing financial burdens.
42

4. KEY CONSIDERATIONS
The following points highlight some of the complexities that need to be addressed when developing a
National Relocation Strategy:

•
•
•
•
•
•

•
•

43

Complexity in Types of Relocation: Identifying the most appropriate scale, form, and stages ofplanned relocation for individual communities at risk.
Learning from First Nations Knowledge and Perspectives: Ensuring that First Nations knowledge
is part of discussions regarding planned relocation.
Community Engagement and Participation: Ensuring that the community is central throughout allstages of the relocation process, from early conceptualisation to post-relocation, is vital. Prioritising
equity, justice, and inclusivity.
Addressing Societal and Intergenerational Concerns: Acknowledging that there will be many
people who do not want to relocate, notwithstanding their knowledge of risk.
Addressing Culturally Sensitive Concerns: Deciding what is to be relocated and what will remain
is complex and sensitive, requiring diﬃcult decisions to be addressed within the community. This isparticularly important for sensitive heritage, memorial, and cultural sites.
Facilitation of Community Led Design Processes: Ensuring that the planned relocation design
process is inclusive of First Nations and all voices and perspectives from the affected communities,
environmental experts, urban planners, engineers, architects, and designers underpinned by technical,
scientific, legal, and regulatory expertise.
Scaffolding Community Capacity: Identifying existing skills and expertise within the community
needed for planned relocation and ensuring the community is appropriately supported throughout theprocess.
Understanding, Mapping and Communicating Risk in Time: Recognising risk as a dynamic
process where the impacts of climate change interact with and exacerbate drivers of insecurity andinstability over time.

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Identifying Viable Destination Sites: Identification of low-risk sites that are geographically,
environmentally, climatically, culturally, and socially suitable.
Land Acquisition and Tenure: Addressing significant political and economic issues requiring complex
legislation, including issues of rezoning.
Complexity of Logistics Planning: Carefully sequencing and facilitating the planned relocation ofpeople, economies, infrastructure, institutions and built environments over extended periods of time.
Relocating, Repurposing and Recycling: Understanding the inherent value of existing assets andconsidering them as valuable resources.
Restoration of Evacuated Land and Properties: Considering appropriate restoration and repurposing of evacuated land and buildings for alternative uses, such as agriculture, tourism, recreation,or other low-impact, low risk non-residential uses.
Contingency: Ensuring provisions and contingencies are in place to support those who chose not torelocate.
Economic Futures: Offsetting the cost of relocation and ensuring that planned relocations will provide
economic benefits to community, industry, and the economy over decades.
Ensuring Institutional Support: Consistent institutional support across government, private and notfor-profit sectors.
Appropriate Funding and Mechanisms: Ensuring appropriate and secure funding sources andmeasures are in place to enable a smooth transition through pre, during and post relocation.

44

5. KEY POINTS FOR DISCUSSION
Globally and nationally, addressing the scale of impacts, dangers, and challenges presented byclimate change requires vision and imagination. A significant percentage of the Australian population
live in areas that are and increasingly will be, exposed to the effects of escalating climate change
including extreme weather events, riverine and coastal flooding and storm surges, sea-level rises,
drought, fire, and extreme heat. Many communities will need to relocate out of harm’s way in the
coming decades and beyond. Establishing a National Relocation Strategy for communities at risk
requires identifying how and where to initiate preventative action as well as designing a plan that
acknowledges and encompasses cultural, social, environmental, economic, political, and institutional
complexity. The implementation of such a strategy is increasingly urgent. In light of this, the following
actions are suggested for consideration and adoption:
1. The Creation of a National Relocation Strategy for Australian Communities at Risk
A National Relocation Strategy for Australian communities vulnerable to the impacts of climate change,
should be established. It must place the safety, dignity, and agency of individuals and communities
at the centre. Such a strategy would include the development of a legal framework and adopting awhole-of-government approach for implementing planned relocation. Internationally and particularlyin the Pacific Region, guidelines for planned relocation guidelines have already been developed.
Given the exposure of many parts of Australia to the devastating impacts of climate change, thedevelopment of guidelines for planned relocation for at-risk communities is of crucial importance. A
National Relocation Strategy would aim to:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
45

Prompt new visioning of Australia’s urban and regional futures, particularly in areas deemed atconsiderable risk.
Lay the foundation for dynamic risk mapping, depicting overlapping impacts over a range oftimeframes.
Build upon and strengthen community capacity in the context of relocation.
Communicate the relocation strategy effectively within and across government, non-governmentalorganisations (NGOs), the private sector and the broader community.
Stimulate policy discussions directed towards Australia’s environmental and climatic future.
Identify immediate and long-term societal, cultural, and economic costs and concerns associatedwith relocation.
Identify immediate and long-term social, cultural, and economic benefits and opportunities
resulting from relocation efforts.
Address key environmental, cultural, heritage and legislative challenges, including site selection,•••land acquisition, tenure and post-relocation land and site restoration.
Consider key material aspects, such as relocation logistics, restoration, repurposing, recycling
and requirements for new infrastructure, housing, and services.
Identify appropriate governance structures at the Commonwealth, state, territory, and local
levels, as well as institutional and non-governmental support mechanisms for local councils andcommunities.
Explore innovative funding mechanisms and economic incentives to facilitate successful
relocation endeavours.

2. The Establishment of a National Relocation Authority
The establishment of a National Relocation Authority would spearhead the development,
coordination, and execution of the National Relocation Strategy, while collaborating with and aiding
states, territories, local authorities, communities, and individuals throughout the relocation process.
This Authority would collaborate with the ACS, NEMA, and state and local governments to identify
communities most vulnerable to risk. It would spearhead relocation planning, resource allocation,and legal and economic processes, as well as identifying appropriate governance and support. A key
component would outline recommendations and requirements for a facilitated, community-based
process, encompassing statutory requirements, guidelines, funding, and support mechanisms, aswell as modes of delivery before, during and after relocation. The Authority would appoint a series ofinclusive working groups, representative of and drawing upon diverse knowledge sources, includingFirst Nations and community representatives, a wide range of industry professionals, governance at
all levels, humanitarian organisations, and researchers. It is proposed that a committee representing
key stakeholders would collaborate with governments to define the structure, terms of reference, andoperational model of this Authority.
3. Development of Dynamic Risk Mapping
The development of evidence-based dynamic risk mapping is important to recognise intersecting
and compounding risks and complexity. Environmental, climatic, spatial, and vulnerability mappingthat projects emerging and future enviro-climatic risks, serves to raise awareness of risk, establish
dialogues within communities facilitating communication between government, industry, andcommunity stakeholders, and informing strategic action to ensure community safety. At its core, thismapping process recognises risk as a complex and evolving phenomenon influenced by a multitude
of variables. This Issues Paper advocates for the integration of risk mapping as a tool capable of46

addressing the multifaceted nature of relocation scenarios. By juxtaposing and superimposing layersof significance, this methodology sheds light on the interrelationships between various risk factors.
Ultimately, it would provide stakeholders with invaluable insights into the complexities inherent in therelocation process.
Developed in collaboration with the ACS, NEMA, and other public and private agencies involved in
mapping risk, evidence-based risk mapping would play a crucial role in facilitating timely decisionmaking within communities facing escalating risk factors and in the selection of appropriate relocationsites.
4. Development of Resource, Skills, and Logistics Registers
The development of registers of public and private sector resources, infrastructure, available land,machinery and equipment, and supply chains for planned relocation. This correlates with the risk
mapping process and includes identifying potential existing structures and materials available
for relocation, reuse, repurposing, and recycling, as well as projected requirements for additional
materials and resources related to planned relocation. Identifying existing skills and expertise within
the community would enable the development of feasible scenarios based upon local knowledge.
There will also be requirements, across the community, to develop new knowledge and skills in thecontext of relocation.[118] [119] Conducting an audit of the community’s knowledge and skill base would
aid in better understand its capabilities. Engaging the community in decision-making processes
pertaining to the desired location and form of new settlements and in the identification of what should
remain or be relocated is vitally important. Equally important is the identification of both material andnon-material needs by the community.

47

This Issues Paper aims to stimulate discussion, initiate the development of a National Relocation
Strategy for at-risk communities, and catalyse the creation of further research and practical initiatives.
To address the issues outlined, collaboration is invited from government, industry, academia, andcommunities, with the aim of garnering support and establishing a network to expand upon andimplement these proposals.
The Issues Paper and accompanying website represent initial efforts resulting from contributions
by academic staff and students, and voluntary contributions from industry experts, alongside theirprofessional commitments. Gratitude is extended to the Australian National University’s Institute for
Climate, Energy, and Disaster Solutions (ICEDS), the School of Art and Design at ANU, Mather
Architecture, the Studio at the Edge of the World, and the University of Canberra (UC) for theirfinancial and in-kind support of the project.
The authors encompass various disciplines including design, architecture, philosophy, science, disasterscience, social science, risk and vulnerability, urban systems, and logistics. This transdisciplinary
approach amalgamates the perspectives of like-minded individuals, and deliberately avoids a singlediscipline approach from either the sciences or the humanities. Instead, it endeavours to convey thecomplexity of these issues to a diverse audience including policymakers, industry leaders, educators,
media professionals, community organisations, and community members alike.
The project team will continue to develop this research, while striving to secure the resources
necessary for implementation. It is acknowledged that there is much work to be done to advance
this initiative, including a comprehensive review of existing and evolving government policies, both
domestically and internationally. Establishing a consultation process that fosters collaboration amongorganisations addressing risk and relocation is imperative. The project website offers additional
information and contact details for engaging with the project team regarding the initiative.

48

ENDNOTES[1] IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Working Group II, “Fact
Sheet: Responding to Sea Level Rise” (Geneva: IPCC,
2023),20. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/
outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_SLR.pdf[2] IPCC, “Summary for Policymakers,” In Climate
Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working
Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. by H. Lee
and J. Romero (Geneva: IPCC, 2023), 20. DOI: 10.59327/
IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.001.
[3] “Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub: Australian Disaster Resilience Glossary,” Australian Institute forDisaster Resilience (AIDR), accessed April 01, 2024, https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/glossary/?wordOfTheDayId=&keywords=&alpha=H&page=1&results=50&order=AZ. The Glossary uses the United Nations Oﬃce for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) definition.
[4] AIDR, “Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub.”[5] AIDR, “Australian Disaster Resilience Knowledge Hub.”[6] The World Commission on Environment and Development,
Our Common Future (Oxford University Press, 1987), 15.
[7] “Sustainable Development Goals.” World HealthOrganisation, accessed April 03, 2024, https://www.who.int/
europe/about-us/our-work/sustainable-development-goals.
[8] Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, “Global Internal
Displacement Database,” accessed September 26, 2023,
https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/displacement-data.
[9] IAG and Rhelm, Planned Relocation: Protecting Our
Communities (March 2023), https://www.iag.com.au/aboutus/research.
[10] Elizabeth Ferris and Sanjula Weerasinghe, “Promoting
Human Security: Planned Relocation as a Protection Tool in
a Time of Climate Change,” Journal on Migration and Human
Security 8, no. 2 (2020): 134-149.
[11] Adapted from Brookings Institution, Georgetown
University and United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees, Guidance on Protecting People from Disasters andEnvironmental Change Through Planned Relocation (2015),
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/guidance-on-protectingpeople-from-disasters-and-environmental-change-throughplanned-relocation/.

[12] “Floods Expose Social Inequities and Potential Mental
Health Epidemic in its Wake,” The University of Sydney,
March 23, 2022, https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/
news/2022/03/23/floods-expose-social-inequities--andpotential-mental-health-epi.html.
[13] Beth Blazland and Fran Dorey, “The First Migrations outof Africa,” Australian Museum, last modified March 4, 2020,
https://australian.museum/learn/science/human-evolution/
the-first-migrations-out-of-africa/.
[14] Erica Bower and Sanjula Weerasinghe, Leaving Place,
Restoring Home: Enhancing the Evidence Base on Planned
Relocation Cases in the Context of Hazards, Disasters andClimate Change (Platform on Disaster Displacement andAndrew and Renata Kaldor Centre for International Refugee
Law UNSW, 2021), https://disasterdisplacement.org/
news-events/leaving-place-restoring-home-enhancing-theevidence-base-on-planned-relocation-cases-in-the-contextof-hazards-disasters-and-climate-change-2/.
[15]A.R. Siders, M. Hino, and K.J. Mach, “The Case forStrategic and Managed Climate Retreat,” Science, 365,
no.6455 (2019): 761-763, https://doi.org/doi:10.1126/science.
aax8346.
[16] Idowu Ajibade, Meghan Sullivan, Chris Lower, Lizzie
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