IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

IFTAUPDATE IFTA会報
2013 volume 20 issue 1
2013年春号

a newsletter for the colleagues of the International Federation of Technical Analysts

IN THIS ISSUE
目次

ロルフ・ウェツァー会長からIFTA会員へのメッセージ1

President’s Report to Colleagues

1. 3 IFTA会長から会員へのメッセージ
Calendar At-A-Glance
3. IFTA加盟協会イベント・スケジュール
6 Congratulations New CFTes!
6. 祝！ CFTe資格・新規取得者一覧
Save the Dates!
6. 6 CFTe、MFTA試験スケジュール
7. 7 教育ラウンジ
Education Lounge
7. 古典的チャート・パターンの統計的評
7 Statistical Evaluation of Classic
価 Chart Pattern, Part 1
9. ３つの防御ルール
9 The Three Rules of Protection
10. ワイコフの歴史
10 Wyckoff History Lessons
11. テクニカル分析の社会奉仕と芸術
11 Philanthropy and the Art of
13. アクション・シークエンス・メゾッド
Technical Analysis
17. IFTA加盟協会ニュース
13 TheAction Sequence Method
18. IFTA加盟協会・理事
19.17 2013年IFTA大会スポンサーシップ
Member News
18 案内
IFTA Member Societies
19 IFTA 2013 Annual ConferenceSponsorship Opportunities

Next issue June 2013
Submission Deadlines
Education articles: May 15—
send submissions to newsletter@ifta.org
All other content: June 1—
send submissions to admin@ifta.org
Advertise in the UPDATE and reach morethan 6,950+ IFTA colleagues worldwide.
For more information, go to
www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/

President’s Report to Colleagues

会員の皆様へDear IFTA Colleagues,

page 1IFTA UPDATE is a publication of the International
Federation of Technical Analysts, Inc.
(www.ifta.org), a not-for-profit professionalorganization incorporated in 1986.
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA
Email: admin@ifta.org • Phone: +1 240-404-6508

皆様2013年はいいスタートを切られたのではと思います。皆様にとって2013年がいい年になりますことを祈念します。現在までのところ2013年
は我々にとって良い年できています。株式市場のパフォーマンスは良好で、債券市場の小幅調整、アジア経済の減速、欧州のこの先の政治混
I hope that all of you had a very good startTechnical Analysts, Traders, Fund Managers,celebrate their 40 th anniversary on April,
乱、米国の財政の壁問題等にもかかわらず、株式は引き続き上昇基調です。これらが今後市場にどういう影響を与えるかは誰にもわかりません
in 2013, and I wish you all a very successful
Asset Allocators and Investors from all
4-5th 2013 at the MTA Symposium in New
が、我々の手法に自信を持つべきです。トレンドがブレークしない限り、これらのニュースに耳を傾けることなく、チャートが示すところに従year. So far, 2013 has been a good year. The
continents. It provides a unique opporYork. In the name of IFTA, I wish MTA, its
い続けるべきでしょう。
2013年IFTA大会
stock markets are showing good perfortunity to reach the decision and opinion
President, David Keller, and our past IFTA
今後何が起ころうが、少なくとも10月はサンフランシスコでは上昇基調
mances and the trends are still up despite
makers in your market. Itです。IFTAの第26回年次大会が本年10月9日から11日にかけて、サis a good way to
President and Founder Ralph Acampora
ンフランシスコ・テクニカルアナリスト協会（TSAASF）のホストで、サンフランシスコで開かれます。IFTA年次大会は、世界の全大陸のテク
a bit of bond market corrections, the slow
meet some old friends or make some new
all the best.
ニカルアナリスト、トレーダー、ファンドマネジャー、アセット・アロケーター、投資家にとっての代表的なイベントです。そこでは、あなたdown of the Asian economy, the politicalones. The topic of the conference will be
がたそれぞれの市場におけるオピニョン・リーダーや投資の決定者にコンタクトすることができるユニークな機会となります。昔からの友人や
challenge ahead in Europe, and the US“Evolution to Mastery: Technical Analysis,
New Certified Financial Technician
新たな友人に会ういい場所にもなります。大会のテーマは 熟達への展開：テクニカル分析、システム、売買執行 です。IFTAの大会会担当理(CFTe) Syllabus 2014
fiscalcliff.
Although
we
all
don’t
know
how
Systems,andExecution”.
Our
Conference
事であるローマン・ボロマゾフと彼のチームが、盛りだくさんのプログラムと質の高いスピーカー、最新のトピックス、さらにはリラックス
these events will influence the markets, weDirector, Roman Bogomazov, and his teamDuring the last three years, IFTA has develし、友人たちと会う機会を持つことができるいくつかのレジャー・イベント等々を取り纏めてくれます。サンフランシスコは1995年にも大会を
should place confidence in our discipline.
will put together a demanding program
oped a new syllabus for its exam series. As
ホストしています。その時の参加者は、今でもこの大会を絶賛しており、18年経っても方向性は上昇基調なのです。
As long as the trends are not broken, it isハッピーバースデー
with high quality speakers, cutting edge
announced on the website, this syllabus will
MTA（米国テクニカルアナリスト協会）へ
現在はIFTAメンバーではありませんがIFTAの創設メンバーの一つであるMarket
Technicians
best not to listen to the news, but stick to
topics and some leisure events
to relax Association
be used(MTA;
for the米国テクニカルアナリスト協
exams from May 1, 2014会)yourにハッピーバースデーのお祝いを申し上げたいと思います。MTAは本年の4月4日から5日にニューヨークで年次シンポジウムを開催し、創立
charts.
and meet friends. San Francisco hosted
onwards. The original grace period of 18
40周年を祝います。MTAとその会長であるデイビッド・ケラー氏、それに以前IFTAの会長していただいた創立メンバーである
an IFTA conference in 1995. Those whomonths will give everybodyラルフ・アカン
enough time
ポーラ氏にIFTAとしてお祝いを申し上げたいと思います。
IFTA Annual Conference 2013attended still rave about this event, andto adopt and to become acquainted with
CFTeの2014年新シラバス
And, whatever the rest of the year will
18 years later, the trend is still up.
it. The changes within the syllabus are not
IFTAはこの３年間、実施しているCertified Financial Technician (CFTe；国際テクニカルアナリスト連盟認定テクニカルアナリスト）資格試験
bring, “The Trend Is Up In San Francisco”,
dramatic ones. We added some topics toプログラムの新しいシラバス（学習項目）を作成してきました。ウェブサイト上で発表したとおり、この試験項目は2014年５月1日からの試験に
at least in October. Our 26 th Annual
Happy Birthday MTA!
an already successful program since they
適用されます。当初の導入期間である18ヵ月は、会員の皆様が新プログラムに適応し慣れるのに十分な時間でしょう。項目の内容にドラマ
AlthoughnolongeramemberofIFTA,
I
evolved in our discipline over time, but
IFTA
Conference
willbehostedinSan
ティックな変更はありません。IFTAの既存の成功プログラムには組み込まれていないものの、テクニカル分析に関連するテーマとしてこのとこFrancisco,
from
9-11
October
2013
by
the
would
like
to
take
the
opportunity
toconhave not been included in our exams yet.
ろ発展してきたものがあり、それらの項目を追加するという形をとりました。最も顕著な改訂としては、数量分析手法、トレーディング・シス
Technical
Securities
Analysts
Association
gratulate
one
of
our
founding
societies,
The
most prominent changes to the new
テム、行動ファイナンスを追加したことです。最も重要な改善は、同一のシラバスが1次試験にも２次試験にも適用されるということです。２つの試験の違いはその試験形式（１次試験は多股選択式試験、２次試験は筆記試験）です。これらの修正によりCFTeプログラムは一新され、資格of San Francisco (TSAASF). IFTA’s Annual
Market Technicians Association (MTA), by
Syllabus are the inclusion of quantitative
保有者により価値あるものとなるでしょう。
Conference is the leading event forwishing them a Happy Birthday! MTA willtechniques, trading systems and behavioral
皆様の分析、トレーディングがうまくいきますよう期待しています。10月にサンフランシスコでの大会でお会いしましょう。

[continued on page 15]
ロルフ・ウェツァー、Ph.D.IFTA会長

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

page 3

IFTA加盟協会イベント・スケジュール
Calendar
At-A-Glance
Date

Topic

Monthly

Presentations from local and international speaker on a comprehensive STANZ
range of topics (sharemarket, CFDs, options, futures, foreign exchange(forex trading), methodologies, money management, psychology, etc.

March

April

Speaker

Location

Time

Contact

VariesEpsom Community Centre
200-206 Gillies Ave.
Auckland, NZ

Varieswww.stanz.co.nz/

Chapter leaders and their volunteer members serve as ambassadors for
CSTA (Chapters: Montreal; Ottawa; Varies
the CSTA and plan social and educational events for the area. Events
Durham; Toronto; Oakville;
include presentations by Industry Professionals, Technical Analysis experts Kitchener, Waterloo, Guelph,and peer learning gatherings. Chapters also play a vital role in theirCambridge & Area; Calgary,community by connecting individuals and promoting Technical Analysis.
Vancouver, Victoria, Winnepeg

Varies throughout Canada

Varieswww.csta.org

Meetings are held monthly in 9 cities across Australia. All monthly
meetings are free to members. Visitors are welcome to attend.
Bookings are not required. Visitors fee is $30.

ATAA

VariesVaries throughout Australia

Varieswww.ataa.com.au/
meetings

Monthly meetings are held in London.

STA

VariesBritish Bankers Association
Pinners Hall105 - 108 Old Broad Street
London, UK

Varieswww.sta-uk.org/events_
meetings.html

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2 (2012) paper
submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

16

Board Meeting

STAN

TBA

TBA

11.00

admin@stanigeria.org

21

TerraSeeds Fores TFlow: How Market Sentiment can be a Valuable
Price-Action Indicator

TASS

Soh Tiong Hum, Managing
SCCCI exibition room,
Director of TerraSeeds Market (near City Hall MRT)
Technician Pte Ltd

19:0021:00

www.tass.org.sg/

21

Academic Background and Actual Trends on Financial Markets

SAMT

Alberto Vivanti and Mario
Guffanti

08:1520:30

www.samt-org.ch/events.php

27

Evolution of a Master Trader Webinar

TSAASF

Adrienne Toghraie, A Trader’s Webinar
Success Coach

17:00www.tsaasf.org/
19:00 PDT

30

Monthly Digest

STAN

TBA

PROT Training Hall,
77B Mobolaji Bank AnthonyWay, Ikeja Lagos

10.00

stanigeria@gmail.com

13

2nd Annual Conference

STAN

David FURCAJG, IFTA
Membership Director,
Olufemi Awoyemi, CEO,
Proshare Nig. Ltd, Victor
Hugo, President, TASSA

Lagos Oriental Hotel, Victoria 10:00
Island, Lagos

www.stansummit.com

13

Integrating Signals from the Credit Market into Equity Trading
Strategies

TSAASF

Dave Klein, Partner and
Co-Founder of CapitalContext LLC

Golden Gate University
536 Mission St,
San Francisco, CA USA

Gann Forecasting (subject to the number of participants meeting theminimum requirement of the class. (class size 10-12)

TASSPhil Anderson, author of The
Secret Life of Real Estate andBanking, is Managing Director of
Economic Indicator Services (EIS),

20

CFTe Training

STAN

TBA

24

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) Level II Examination

IFTA

27

Monthly Digest

STAN

13-14

Host

Milan - Centrobanca - Corso
Europa, 16 - Sala Colonne

10:00www.tsaasf.org/
11:30 PDT
09:0017:00

www.tass.org.sg/

7th Floor, St. Peters House,
Ajele Street, Lagos Island

08:00

stanigeria@gmail.com

NA

VariesVariesadmin@ifta.org
www.ifta.org

TBA

PROT Training Hall,
77B Mobolaji Bank AnthonyWay, Ikeja Lagos

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

page 4

Calendar At-A-Glance continued
Date
May

Topic

Host

Speaker

Location

Time

Contact2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1 application,
outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

4

CFTe Training/Monthly Meeting

STAN

TBA

7th Floor, St. Peters House,
Ajele Street, Lagos Island

08:00

stanigeria@gmail.com

11

CFTe Training

STAN

TBA

7th Floor, St. Peters House,
Ajele Street, Lagos Island

08:00

stanigeria@gmail.com

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber,

18

Monthly Meeting/CFTe

STAN

TBA

7th Floor, St. Peters House,
Ajele Street, Lagos Island

08:00

stanigeria@gmail.com

25

CFTe Training

STAN

TBA

7th Floor, St. Peters House,
Ajele Street, Lagos Island

08:00

stanigeria@gmail.com

31

IFTA Journal Call for Paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

journal@ifta.org

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content (mid-June release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org,

8

CFTe Training

STAN

TBA

7th Floor, St. Peters House,
Ajele Street, Lagos Island

08:00

stanigeria@gmail.com

15

Monthly Meeting

STAN

TBA

PROT Training Hall,
77B Mobolaji Bank AnthonyWay, Ikeja Lagos

08:00

stanigeria@gmail.com

July

31

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Alternative Path,
Session 2 application deadline.

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

www.ifta.org

August15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-September release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber

June

31

IFTA Journal applicants notification of acceptance/rejection

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

journal@ifta.org

September

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-September release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org,

October2

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 2 application,
outline and fees deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

8

IFTA Board of Director’s Meeting

IFTA

VariesInterContinental Mark
Hopkins Hotel
San Francisco, CA USA

TBA

admin@ifta.org

8

IFTA Annual General Meeting (Members Only)

IFTA

VariesInterContinental Mark
Hopkins Hotel
San Francisco, CA USA

TBA

9-11

IFTA 26th Annual Conference

IFTA & TSAASF

TBA

InterContinental Mark
Hopkins Hotel
San Francisco, CA USA

Variesadmin@ifta.org
www.ifta.org

15

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA) Session 1(2013) paper submission deadline

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

admin@ifta.org

November

15

IFTA Update submission deadline for educational articles(mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesnewsletter@ifta.org
Attn: Aurélia Gerber

December

1

IFTA Update submission deadline for news content(mid-December release)

IFTA

NA

NA

Variesadmin@ifta.org

IFTA Journal web publication

IFTA

NA

NA

NA

www.ifta.org/publications/journal/15-31

26th Annual IFTA Conference
October 9-11, 2013
InterContinental Mark Hopkins Hotel
San Francisco, CA USA

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

page 6

CFTe、MFTA資格試験スケジュール
Save
the Dates!

祝！ CFTe資格・新規取得者一覧
Congratulations
New CFTes!

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level I
Mohamed Mahmoud Maaty AbdelAziz, ESTA

Yoshikazu Hayakawa, NTAA

Daisuke Nishiyama, NTAA

Date
See our website for further instructions
www.ifta.org/certifications/registration/.

Waleed Ahmed AbdelGaied, ESTA

Hiroto Hirai, NTAA

Satoshi Noda, NTAA

Mohamed Fawzy AbdelHameed, ESTA

Mohamed Hussein Ibrahim, ESTA

Koki Nozawa, NTAA

Mohamed AbdelHakeem AbdelSamea, ESTA

Takuya Ishihara, NTAA

Maresuke Okamoto, NTAA

Fowzy Khalid Alkoblan, ATAA

Masaru Iwase, NTAA

Masahiko Okano, NTAA

AbdulRahman Abdul Motalea Atwa, ESTA

Michael Wayne Jones, ATAA

Hisanori Okuhara, NTAA

Ayman AbdelHamid Amin Ayoub, ESTA

Philip Kalthöfer , VTAD

Robin Luc Oppenheim, STA

Fabien Benchetrit, AFATEMei Kanetomo, NTAA

Hani Benyahya

Offered Year-roundDownload Syllabus and Study Guide:ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/2013-CFTeI_Syllabus.pdf

Certified Financial Technician (CFTe)—Level II
CFTe Level II

Session 1

Session 2

Date

24 April 20139 October 2013

Sven Paulsen, VTAD

Registration deadline

8 March 2013 Closed

16 August 2013

Matthew Kaye, ATAA

Markus Pfirmann, VTAD

Register at www.ifta.org/register/cfte2.php

Stephen Body, ATAA

Fiona Kennedy, ATAA

Tetsuya Sano, NTAA

Richard A. Butler, ATAA

Masao Kinoshita, NTAA

Daniel Schütz, VTAD

Download Syllabus and Study Guide at:
ifta.org/public/files/publication-downloads/2013-CFTeII_Syllabus.pdf

Marc Chandler, ATAA

Leo Lai, ATAA

Mourad Hassan Zaki Selim, ESTA

William Donnan, ATAA

Rick Andrew Lester, ATAA

Hitomi Sugino, NTAAMay Motaz El-Tabaa, ESTA

Michelangelo Lopez

Noriyoshi Sunami, NTAA

Sameh Ehab ElOkaily, ESTA

Ayman Ali Sayed Mahmoud, ESTA

Josep Maria Tacias Bueno, AEAT

Fatma ElZahraa Emam Ali Emam, ESTA

Eslam AbdelFatah Mohamed Mansour, ESTA

Kensuke Takumi, NTAA

Hiroyoshi Fujii, NTAA

Akira Matsui, NTAA

Hani Ezzat Tawfek, ESTABo Gao, ATAA

Yasuaki Mayumi, NTAA

Andreas Thalassinos, STA

Steven Geoghegan, STADavid Hirz Garas Megalla, ESTA

Grzegorz Tywoniuk, ATAA

Ehab Girgis Saleh Mousa, ESTA

Curtis John Miller, ATAA

Antonios Varvatsos(Session 1) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session1.php/

Tomas Gustavsson, STA

Penelope Jane Miller, ATAALuke Peter Vaughan, ATAA

(Session 2) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_alt_session2.php/

Rania Yacoub Habib, ESTA

Hirofumi Mimura, NTAA

Yoshihiro Wakamatsu, NTAA

Tamer Yacoub Habib, ESTA

Sumio Miura, NTAA

Jun Watanabe, NTAAMFTA Regular Path

Session 1

Session 2

Application/outline deadline

2 May 2013

2 October 2013

Paper submission deadline

15 October 201315 March 2014

Takuya Hamawaki, NTAA

Haitham AbdelSameea Mohamed, ESTA

Karl John Williscroft, ATAA

Robert Andrew Hartwin, ATAA

Mohamed Ali Shahin Mohamed, ESTA

Kazuhiro Yonemitsu, NTAA

Tarek Ahmed Hassan, ESTA

Fumio Moriyama, NTAA

Michael Zammit, ATAA

Kevin Murphy, ATAA

For more information on the CFTe program,
visit http://www.ifta.org/certifications

Master of Financial Technical Analysis (MFTA)
MFTA Alternative Path

Session 1

Session 2

Pre-Application deadline

28 February 2013
Closed31 July 2013

Application/outline
deadline (if approved)

2 May 2013

2 October 2013

Paper submission deadline

15 October 201315 March 2014

(Session 1) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_session1.php/(Session 2) Register at www.ifta.org/register/mfta_session2.php/
For more information about the MFTA program, visit
www.ifta.org/certifications/master-of-financial-technical-analysis-mfta-program/

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

page 7

Education Lounge 「教育ラウンジ」
Statistical Evaluation of Classic Chart Pattern, Part 1 古典的チャート・パターンの統計的評価 パート１
グレゴール・バウアー博士（ドイツ・テクニカルアナリスト協会）
by Gregor Bauer, Ph.D. (VTAD—Germany)
古典的なチャート・パターン（例えばトDo classical chart patterns (e.g. triangles,
ライアングル、ヘッド・アンド・ショル
head-shoulder) really show the expectedダーズ）は期待通りのパフォーマンスを
performance? Do stock prices, when form示すのか？株価が上昇トライアングルを
ing rising triangles as consolidation in an
作るときは、本当に上方にブレークする
uptrend, really break out upwards—so toのか？それとも反対方向に行くことが多confirm the trend—or do they more often
いのか？そして、ブレークアウト後のパ
act as reversal pattern? And, what about
フォーマンスは？
the performance after the breakout?

米国の元ソフトウエア・エンジニアであThe former US software engineer andり、今はプロ・トレーダーである
today’s professional trader Thomas N.
ThomasN. Bulkowskiは、今までに最もBulkowski has conducted, to date, the
網羅的とも言える古典的チャート・パ
most comprehensive statistical evaluaターンの統計的検証を行った。本論文
tion of classic chart patterns. This article
は、彼の3冊の本を引用し、あらゆるト
is comprised of three of his books andレーダーが古典的チャート・パターンに
focuses on some of the key facts, which
沿ってトレーディングする時に承知して
every trader must know when trading clasおかねばならないキー・ファクターに焦sic chart patterns.
点を置く。

古典的チャート・パターンの評価
Evaluation of Classic Chart Patterns
Methodology:
方法論:

In his book: Trading Classic
Chart Patterns,
Bulkowskiは彼の著書`Trading
Classic
Wiley Patterns& Sons, 2002,
Bulkowski
Chart(Wiley& Sons,measured2002)でS&P500指数の株式があるチャート・パ
the performance of stocks from the S&P
ターンをブレークした時のパフォーマン
500 Index after the breakout of specific
スを計測している。ブレークアウト価格
chart pattern.
とは、パターンの高値またはトレンド・
ラインをブレークしたときの価格と定義
The breakout-price is defined as the highしている。
est price of a pattern or the breakage ofa trendline.

パフォーマンスは、ブレークアウトした価格から「最終的な高値」（これは価格
The performance is measured from theが少なくとも20％以上下落する前のピー
breakout price to the “ultimate high”, which
ク時の最高値と定義）にかけての価格変is defined as the highest peak before price
化率として検証している。この点の詳細
declines at least 20%. For more detailedについては www.thepatternsite.com を
information about the methodology, visit
参照。
www.thepatternsite.com.

調査結果

These are the findings:
最良のブレークアウト率:
Best breakout rates:
A rising triangle breaks out upward about

上昇トライアングルは、70％の確率で上70% of the time, and, that is the surprise,
方にブレークアウトする。しかもこれregardless of trend direction leading toは、驚くことに、トレンドの方向に拘ら
the pattern. That means, even if the trend
ずである。つまり下方トレンドであってleading to the pattern is downward,
も、このパターンが形成されると70％のin 70% of the time the price
確率で価格は上方にブレークする。つまりリバーサル・パターンとなる。

下降トライアングルの場合は、約55％のbreaks out upward, thus resulting in a
確率で下方にブレークする。対称型のトreversal pattern.
ライアングルの場合は50％である（トレンドの方向に拘らず）。
In the case of a falling triangle, about 55 %of the time the price breaks out downward,

レクタングルは、理論的にはトレンド方
and for a symmetrical triangle in about 50%
向の確認パターンである。つまり、上昇(again, price can be any direction leading
トレンドにおけるレクタングルでは、
to the chart pattern).
68％の確率で上方にブレークアウトする。（つまり、調整終了後、調整前のトRectangles should be in theory trend conレンドが継続する。）

firming pattern, and they are: Rectangle
in uptrend: 68% up breakout (that means
下降トレンドにおけるレクタングルは、
trend following after the consolidation);
56％の確率で下方にブレークする（ここRectangle in downtrend: 56% down breakでもトレンドは継続）。しかし、逆にいout, again trend following. But vice versa, in
えば、下方トレンドにおけるレクタング
44% of the time rectangles in a downtrend
ルでは、44％がリバーサル・パターンとact as reversal pattern.

なるわけである。

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

page 8
Education Lounge

Statistical Evaluation of Classic Chart Pattern, Part 1 continued

ヘッド・アンド・ショルダーズの天井/底打ちパターンは、リバーサル・パターン
Head and shoulder top and bottom patternと考えられているが、実際にそのとおare supposed to be reversal pattern, andり、ヘッド・アンド・ショルダーズ・that’s what they do: Head and shoulder
トップは93％の確率で下方にブレーク、
top: 93% down breakout; Head and shoulヘッド・アンド・ショルダーズ・ボトム
der bottom: 95% up breakout, both very
では、95％の確率で上方にブレークす
significantly reversing a trend.
る。つまり、両方向で、非常に有意なト
レンド・リバーサル・パターンとなる。
Can Trading Chart Pattern Generate
Alpha?
チャート・パターンはプラス・アルThe most important question for trader andファを生み出すことができるのか？
portfolio managers is: When applying chart
トレーダーやポートフォリオ・マネー
pattern, by buying those stocks which break
ジャーにとって最も重要な疑問は、
out of a pattern, is that a valid method to
チャート・パターンを使い、パターンを
generate excess return compared to the
ブレークした株を買った場合、S&P500
S&P 500 ? If no, this kind of pattern-based
指数を上回るパフォーマンスを得られる
stock picking would be useless.

のかどうか、ということである。そうでなければ、このようなパターンに依った
Table 1 gives the answer, which is, clearly
株の選別は意味がないわけである。
yes, you can generate alpha.
図１が回答である。「イエス」、つまり、プラス・アルファを生み出すことがThe table shows the findings in detail.
明白である。ここに詳細が示されている。

ここに示されているのは、S&P500指数
採用の個別株が、いろいろなパターンを
Listed are the average performance results
ブレークした後のパフォーマンスの平均
of the single stocks of the S&P 500 after
値である。
the breakout of various patterns.

比較

The Comparison:
例（下降トライアングル）：Ｓ&Ｐ500
Example: the average breakout perfor指数採用の個別株が下方トライアングル
mance, e.g. from a falling triangle (upから上方にブレークアウトした場合（数breakout, a few thousand examples had
千の例が検証されている）の価格上昇率
been investigated) for single stocks is about
は42％だった。これと同時期のS&P500
42% rise in price. The performance of the
指数のパフォーマンスはわずか3-6%だっ
S&P 500 has been measured over the same
た。

例えば、下降トライアングルからのブレークアウトで、その後の価格上昇率が5％未percentage rise af ter the breakout.
満だったケースは全体の僅か3％、10％未Example: falling triangle, 5% / 10% failure
満だったケースは僅か5％である。その後
rate: only 3% / 9% of all breakouts resultの価格上昇率が10％未満だったケースはin a price rise less than 5% / 10%.
全体の僅か9％、10％未満だったケースは
僅か10％である。

of the pattern (alpha).

Table 2 now shows the best performing
pattern with a down breakout. Here the
図２は下降ブレークアウトにおいて最もパ
average performance of the S&P 500 is
フォーマンスの高いパターンを示してい
given with every pattern, to show, that
る。同時にS&P500指数の平均パフォーマ
even when the overall market climate is
ンスも示されており、市場全体が強気相場
bullish at a time, downward breakouts
であっても、これらのパターンからの下方
from a pattern can be traded successfully
ブレークアウトは、市場の方向とは逆方向
against the market direction. So, looking,にうまくトレードできることがわかる。
for example, at the head-shoulder-top, even
ヘッド・ショルダーズ・トップからの場
though the overall market rose on average,
合、市場全体が平均的に上昇していても、
the downward breakout from that pattern
同パターンから下方にブレークした個別株
could be traded successfully.
は（ショート・サイドから）成功裏にトOther Interesting Data are theその他の興味深いデータ：失敗率

レード出来ている。
Conclusion:

period of time, thus resulting in an averagerise of only 3% -6%!

これは、パターンの実際のパフォーマンス（アルファ）に対するマーケット全体
This shows the minor influence of the over（ベータ）の影響はマイナーであること
all market (beta) and the real performanceを示している。

Failure Rates:
失敗率は、ブレークアウト後の最大上昇
Failure rates are defined as the maximum
値（％）である。

結論
古典的なチャート・パターンを使って銘
the market index by applying this strategy
柄選択を行いトレードする戦略により、
for stock picking. But we also have to be
市場インデックスを上回るリターンを得
aware of the fact that due to the worldることができる。しかし、世界的な市場
wide increase in volatility, throwbacks andボラティリティーの増加と共に、スロー
pullbacks will increase as well as failure
バック、プルバック、失敗率が増加する
rates, thus resulting in the necessity for
であろうから、より厳格なリスク・マネ
even stricter money- and risk-management.
ジメントが必要であることは認識する必要はある。

In Part 2 of this article, to be published in
the next
issue of the IFTA Update, I will
IFTA
Updateの次回号に、この論文の第present a study about how failure rates did
２部を掲載の予定で、そこではここ10年
change during the last decade.
で失敗率が変化してきている点を報告したい。

Thomas N. Bulkowski, Trading Classic Chart
Pattern, Wiley, 2002

Trading classic charts pattern still works
and traders can generate excess return over

平均上昇率
Average

Rise

失敗率：
Failurerate:
上昇率5％未満
Rise less than 5%

失敗率：
FailureRate:
上昇率10%未満
Rise less than 10%

下降トライアングル
Falling Triangle

42%

3%

9%

図2: 最もパフォーマンスの高いパターン（下方ブレークアウト）
Table
2: Best performing pattern, down breakout
パターン
Pattern
Average Ｓ&Ｐ500
Perform.
Failurerate:
Failure
Rate:
失敗率：
失敗率：
平均下落率
S&P 500 下落率5％未満
drop
Drop less
Drop less
指数の平均下落率10％未満
than 5%than 10%変化率

ダブル・ボトム
Double bottom

ヘッド・アンド・ショルダーズ・トップ
Head-Shoulder-Top

図1: 最もパフォーマンスの高いパターン（上方ブレークアウト）
Table
1: Best performing pattern, up breakout
パターン
Pattern

27 - 37%4%18%

レクタングルRectangle

37%

10%

対称トライアングル
Sym. Triangle

35%

5%

ブロードニング・トップ/ボトム
Broadening Top/Bottom

34%

ヘッド・アンド・ショルダーズ・ボトム
Head-Shoulder-Bottom

34%
34%

上昇トライアングル
Rising Triangle

42%

+3%

6%

18%

19%

対称トライアングル
Sym.
Triangle

20%

- 2%

5%

24%

15%

上昇トライアングル
Rising Triangle

19%

0%

6%

24%

8%

19%

ダブル・トップ
Double-Top

15 - 18%

+1%

13%

32%

3%

9%

下降トライアングル
Falling
Triangle

18%

- 1%

7%

27%

6%

17%

ブロードニング・トップ/ボトム
Broadening Top / Bottom

17%

- 2%

13%

33%

ソース：Thomas
N.Bulkowski,
Bulkowski,Trading
Trading
Classic
Chart
Pattern,
Wiley,
2002
Source:Thomas N.
Classic
Chart
Pattern, Wiley,
2002

ソース：Thomas
N.Bulkowski,
Bulkowski,
Trading
Classic
Chart
Pattern,
Wiley,
2002
Source:Thomas N.
Trading
Classic
Chart
Pattern,
Wiley,
2002

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

page 9
Education Lounge

The Three Rules of Protection

３つの防御ルールby Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts (ESTA)In the last IFTA newsletter, we discussed
the importance of discipline. The next two
characteristics are of paramount importance for any trader or investor who wishes
to survive in the markets.

overall picture changes and your interpretation changes, you will have to getout, take your loss and look for anotheropportunity. Patience is only useful whenyour interpretation and your analysis did
not change.

Patience
A stock is witnessing a bottoming formation, you make your analysis perfectly andbuy the stock in anticipation of a major
breakout that will lead to a sharp rise in the
future. You wait for a few weeks, the stock
still trades in its consolidation range, but
you feel bored and sell to join another morevolatile stock. Ultimately, the stock witnesses its major breakout and rises sharply,
only after you sold. Patience is a virtue.
Sometimes your interpretation is very good,your expectations are right, but the lackof patience ruins your trade. As we know,
the more the stock consolidates, and theless volatility it witnesses, the sharper the
next move, either to the upside or to thedownside. This is why, sometimes, we makea good analysis but the stock stays moretime in its consolidation before ultimately
breaking out in our expected direction.
Patience is a very important element forsuccessful trading and investing. Patienceis good when your technical opinion on
the stock did not change. However, if the

Obviously, we cannot buy and hold a stockduring a downtrend and say that patienceis a virtue. As mentioned, it is importantto have patience when we are expecting acertain move that did not come yet.

Humbleness
Being humble is very important, especiallywhen your performance gets better andyour predictions reach a high degree of
accuracy. The more knowledge you acquire,the more money you make, the more professional you become, the more you haveto be modest. The stock market does notknow that you are a professional gentleman. If it moves against your expectations,
it will do so, even if you are the best traderin the world. People who became known,
who were called Gurus, who had the best
timely calls, but who believed in themselves
were all wiped out of the market. Always
know that the market is stronger than you. It
does not matter how much money you have
made, it will all evaporate if you believe
too strongly in yourself and disregarded

market movements. Overconfidence is alethal weapon.

take a break, think deeply, and win yourmodesty again.

It is important to consider losses as a partof the cost that you have to take. Losses
are a must, don’t try to avoid them, they
will come. All that you can do is to control
them. Controlling your losses is the key
for success. If you lose your modesty, youwill lose the interest to control your risk,
because you will not bear to lose anything.
This is the beginning of the end.

Gurus, those who are blindly followed by
the crowd, destroy themselves. They die
poor and with zero ego. It is nice to be
successful, to have good performance, but
being modest, and knowing that the market
is smarter than you, you will be able toprotect yourself from the unknown future.

One of the danger signs that might face
you occurs when people around you, andin the marketplace, talk about you andabout your good performance. They are
ready to listen to you and blindly follow you.
You are now in the danger zone, the redzone, because uncontrollably your modesty
begins to diminish. If you leave yourself tothe fake feeling of this extreme success(Note: the word extreme success, does
it remind you of extreme bullishness andextreme bearishness that appear at major
peaks and major bottoms?), you will begin
acting in an irrational way, you will become
arrogant, talking nonsense. People will still
follow you, but in the end, your integrity
will be lost as well as your ego. Be very
cautious when you feel that your successbegin to reach an extreme. Slow down,

During the 1999-2000 boom of the market
in the USA, there were a few strategists
who had very good calls. Some of themwere strategists who worked in very big
companies. They kept on giving great calls,
and were widely followed by the crowd. The
fake sense of unlimited success disturbed
their views during the major peak of 2000.
They were extremely bullish. The lower
highs in the American markets were notobvious to them. The Market was alreadysliding in a slope of hope, and these great
economists kept on their bullish views until
they lost a lot of their credibility.
In his book, Jesse Livermore, World’s
Greatest Stock Trader, Richard Smitten
mentions in the start of the book “In 1923,
seven men who had made it to the top of
the financial success pyramid met together
at the Edgewater Hotel in Chicago.

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

Education Lounge

The Three Rules of Protection continued

Collectively, they controlled more
wealth than the entire United States
Treasury, and for years the media had
held them up as examples of success.
Who were they? They were: Charles
Schwab, president of the world’s largest steel company; Arthur Cutten, thegreatest wheat speculator of his day;
Richard Whitney, president of the New
York Stock Exchange; Albert Fall, amember of the President’s Cabinet;
Jesse Livermore, the greatest bear on
Wall Street; Leon Fraser, president of
the International Bank of Settlement;
and Ivan Kruegger, the head of world’s
largest monopoly. What happened
to them? Schwab and Cutten bothdied broke; Whitney spent years of hislife in Sing Sing penitentiary; Fall also
spent years in prison, but was releasedso he could die at home; and the others Livermore, Fraser, and Kruegger
committed suicide”.
Richard Smitten Jesse Livermore,
World’s Greatest Stock Trader , 2001
Donald McCullough, Waking from theAmerican Dream, 1988

page 10

Wyckoff History Lessons ワイコフの歴史
ハンク・プルーデン博士（米国・サンフランシスコ・テクニカルアナリスト協会）
by Professor Hank Pruden Ph.D. (TSAASF—USA), Ageno School of Business, Golden Gate University San Francisco
サンフランシスコ・ゴールデンゲート大学・Agenoビジネス・スクール教授
Richard Wyckoff became a celebrity name on 25 opened his own brokerage firm. The known whether this was a stock market moveリチャード・ワイコフは20世紀の最初の10年間でウォール街の著名人となりました。この10年間はまさに、テープ・リー
Wall Street during the early decades of the method he developed of technical analysis on behalf of Mr. Carnegie or whetherMr.
ダー、チャーティスト、投機筋にとって黄金期であったと皆が認める時期でした。ワイコフは彼の雑誌「Magazineof Walltwentieth
century;
an
epoch
many
observandspeculation
emerged
from
the
keen
Schwabwas
employedbyotherinterests
Street'」、その他の出版、アドバイザリー・サービスから巨額の富を得ました。彼の分析の正確さと能力により、20万人とers believe was truly a golden age for tape powers of observation and communication to do the buying and see whether control
いう、今日の基準でもとてつもなく大勢の購読者から巨匠とも言える地位を得ています。1928年に体調の不良でアドバイザ
readers, chartists, and speculators. Wyckoff skills of an unusually gifted man who spent a could thus be obtained”.
リーを引退した後、40年間のウォール街での経験で得た観察・分析力を、真面目で勉強と研究に熱心な一般の人々に何らか
earned a fortune from his Magazine of Wall long and varied career on Wall Street duringの形で残さねばと考えました。1930年頃、彼はウォール街で利益を得るか損失を被るかにかかる真実を明らかにしたいと表Street, along with other publications and the golden era when much of the basis of From his many observations of the behind明しました。彼は当時、皆がそうだと考えていた企業・産業レポートや業績等は成功の秘密ではないと知っていました。そadvisory services. The accuracy and power technical analysis was first formulated. From the-scenes manipulations by the large
れらに代えて彼は「真のゲームのルール」たる原則と手順の組み合わせを提示したいと考えました。これらのルールがワイ
of his analysis and predictions gained him his autobiography, Wall Street Ventures and operators, Wyckoff discovered time and
コフ式のテクニカル分析と株式投機法と知られるようになったのです。

a titan-like status in the eyes of his 200,000 Adventures Through Forty Years, we get a again on the tape and from the charts that
subscribers—an incredibly large following glimpse of Wyckoff’s involvement on Wall the best indicator of the future price of a
ワイコフの人となりeven by today’s standards. After retiring from Street, and we gather an appreciation of security waste relationship between supply
ワイコフは15歳で証券会社の使い走りとしてスタートし、数年後ブローカーの監査人になり、そのあと25歳で自身のブロー
his advisory services in 1928 due to failing his powers of observation as he collected and demand. In 1910 under the pen nameカーを設立しました。彼が開発したテクニカル分析の手法は、テクニカル分析の多くの手法が誕生したウォール街の黄金期
health, Wyckoff felt compelled to make the the “real rules of the game.” The following of “Rollo Tape” he wrote Studies in Tape
での長い経験を基に彼の持つ並外れた観察力と対話力が相まって生み出されたものです。彼の自伝である「WallStreetinsights he had gathered during his 40 years sample is something he wrote about inside Reading (Fraser, 1995; Cosimo, 2005).
In
VenturesandAdventures
Through
Forty
Years」では彼のウォール街との関わりを知ることができますし、「真のゲームof experiences on Wall Street available to the information, circa 1901:
this now classic book about how to readのルール」をまとめたその並外れた観察力を評価することができるでしょう。次の述べるのは彼が1901年ころ内部情報につ
serious public who were willing to study andthe market and how to conduct speculative
いて書いているひとつの例です。
learn. Around 1930 Wyckoff announced that “In those days I used to go to great lengths operations, Wyckoff covered such basics as
he wanted to reveal the truth about what to find out what important people were stop orders, volume indications, dull markets「その頃私は重要人物が何をしているのか発見するために、かなりの時間を費やしました。必ずしもいいコネクションが多it took to gain or lose on Wall Street. He doing. Not having many good connections, and their opportunities, and numerous other
かったわけではありませんでしたが、それらをフルに使いこなすことで、１日のうちでそれらの重要人物らが市場でしていknew that industry reports, earnings, and but making the most of those I had, I could market techniques that would one day be
the like were not the secrets to success many have surprised certain large operators by incorporated into his Wyckoff method, which
たことについて、彼らが見たら驚くような量の情報を集めることができました。例えば、チャールス・シュワッブはペンシ
believed them to be; instead, he wished to producing memoranda of what they had first appeared around 1931. Wyckoff placed
ルバニア鉄道の巨額な買い手でしたが、それは全てエンパイア・ビルの１階にいた証券会社を通じてでした。私は彼が何株
offer a set of principles and procedures, “the done in the market during the day. For prime importance on the analyst’s ability to
買ったかのレポートを常に手に入れていましたし、私の顧客はペンシルベニア鉄道をロングにしていました。彼は160台まreal rules of the game.” These rules became example Charles M. Schwab was a tremen- judge the relative power of buying and sellで買い進み、そこで突然買いを止めました。この動きがカーネギー氏のための相場の動きだったのか、シュワッブ氏が誰か
known as the Wyckoff method of technical dous buyer of Pennsylvania Railroad stock ing waves and thus divine the intent of theに雇われて、買いを続けて市場をコントロールできるかどうか見定めるための動きだったのかは分かりませんでしたが。」
through a house on one of the lower floors dominant forces behind a market move.
analysis and stock speculation.
of the Empire Building. I used to get a daily
巨大プレーヤーが裏で行っていた相場操縦を多く観察することを通じ、ワイコフはテープやチャートから、将来の株価の最Richard D. Wyckoff, Wall Street Ventures andWyckoff,The
Man
report of the number of shares he boughtTapeというペンネームで彼は「Study
良の指標は、需要と供給の関係であることを発見したのです。1910年にRolloin
Adventures Through Forty Years (New York:Wyckoff
startedasastockbroker’s
runonbalanceandmyclients
were
long
on
Tape Reading」という本を出しました（Fraser出版1995年、Cosimo出版2005年）。今では古典になった市場の動きの読みGreenwood press, 1968; first published
ner at the age of 15, became a brokerage Pennsylvania. I watched Schwab buy it up to
方と投機の方法にかかるこの本の中でワイコフは、ストップ・オーダー、出来高指標、さえない市場とその中での収益機
Richard D. Wyckoff, Studies in Tape Reading
firm auditor a few years later, and at age the 160s and then suddenly stop. I’ve never (Fraser, 1995, Cosino, 2005)
会、その他数多くのテクニックについて述べています。それらはワイコフ手法に組み入れられてきています。ワイコフは、アナリストの能力のなかで、買いと売りの相対的力関係を読み、市場の動きの中において優勢な力を推測する能力を第一に挙げています。

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

page 11
Education Lounge

Philanthropy and the Art of Technical Analysis

テクニカル分析の社会奉仕と芸術

by Mario Kfoury, Executive Committee Member (LSTA—Lebanon)
have driven the human quest, sometimes
to great achievements and realizations,sometimes to self-exhaustion, disillusionment, misery, atrocities, self-consumption
and self-destruction.

“It was dark outside, as I gazed into thevast starry sky, the mist of my hot chocolate
drawing forms in the night, a shooting starpassed far above… was it a fast travelling soul or an extinguished one, liberated
from the bondage of earthly life? Drawn
into my thoughts and contemplating life’s
existential questions about the relative
purpose and finiteness of life in face of
this infinite universe, I wondered! Was it
all predetermined, planned or random? Is
there such a thing as a free will or are we
unconsciously guided? Are we responsibleor irresponsible for our thoughts, words
and deeds? Does universal social justiceexist and prevail beyond partial subjective human one? So many questions that

I remember when I was a child, life wasmuch simpler. We were kind of in heaven
before the fall from grace, all we had to do
was eat, sleep and play, now we eat, sleep
and pray. Pray for our creator to forgive oursins, to preserve our soul, to make us happy,
healthy and rich. But what makes something
good or bad and does the Dude upstairs
really interfere in human affairs? Does He or
She have managers and directors to run thedaily chores of life or does everything run
on automatic pilot, some kind of a divinealgorithm? It was kind of a mono-chat with
the Tenant of the blue tent, a conversation I
had in that café in the middle of that night.
The tape was playing the latest prices on
Bloomberg, the presenters of the program
entertaining and distracting their audiences,finding excuses and explanations for latest prices movements. The quotes on myportable computer flickering green andred, I was waiting for predetermined pricelevels to enter my trades and I was smiling,
because of all the bullish bearish rubbish on
TV, technical analysis was able to protect
me from.

I’ve always been like this, a rebel thatwouldn’t settle for things less than would
steal my heart away. Motorcycles did it,
flying and aviation, beautiful women insideand out, sincere people, pragmatic notsterile philosophy and technical analysis.
If anything, the stock market teaches us
about ourselves, the famous Delphic oracle.
Lessons in modesty, temperance, humility and the interconnectedness of things,
either you’d be an investor, speculator ortrader, technical analysis showing us the
middle way within the cycle of Life, exposing it when it is sane or insane, strong andhealthy or weak and ailing. The beauty of it
all is, that for the orderly and wise it applies
in all spheres of life all around us if we arewilling to look beyond the apparent bustle
and noise of things. It is the manifestation
and representation of the state of humanaffairs, the heartbeat of this world.
Oil prices had been rising for quite sometime now, shooting up to levels unseen in
the past, into uncharted territory, reflecting
the turmoil and unrest from the middle
east, a region plagued by too many myths,
history, conflicts and claims of exclusivity in
God, land and religion. An irrational volatility pattern in human behavior only measured by some invisible Bollinger band...
But whenever this kind of conduct departs
from common sense and logic, taking asteeper trendline and direction, and after
many trials and errors, hopes and regrets,
after it has caused all the havoc and pain,
misery and suffering, after it has gone fromone extreme to another reflected in thereadings of the most accurate of oscillators,
sooner or later it eventually finds its way
back to reason, some moving average, the45 degrees Gann angle. Events in life havealways been like that, best embodied in
the beautiful lyrics of the song Windmillsof Your Mind, written by Alan and Marilyn
Bergman, “like a circle in a spiral, like awheel within a wheel. Never ending or
beginning, on an ever-spinning reel”,
an indiscernible Elliott Wave somehow,

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

Philanthropy and the Art of Technical Analysis continued

somewhere always at play, in action... This
will be the state of the world as long as we
encourage the culture of being slaves to ourown material or spiritual disproportional
greed and fears, desires and expectations,
Karmic law playing the regulating universal
calculator, the cosmic balance sheet, somekind of a divine algorithm in it all.
We are always tempted by instant gratification instead of a delayed one, butwhenever we seek the first instead of
the second, sooner or later we will pay a
price. It goes the same when we look forour own personal interest at the expensesof others. Whatever goes around comesaround. Many great minds, philosophersand so-called-prophets and messengers
felt it, saw it and talked about it in different ways. Corollaries are many, the oldest
and most remarkable one, was expressedin the Golden Rule “Treat others the way
you would like to be treated”, Buddha’s
compassion and Hinduism Namaste “thedivine particle in me salutes the divine particle in you” or reducing one’s ego in thepresence of another, Socrates ethics andeternal quest for justice, Jesus love andforgiveness, Rousseau and the need for asocial convention, Emanuel Kant’s imperative “treating others as an end not a mean”,
Newton’s third law of motion, Lavoisier’s
law of conservation in chemistry and last
but not least Murphy’s law. All inspired andupheld by the rule of Karma, an undeniable
truth, an inevitable unbendable cosmic lawthat together with the love of giving, wasthe foundation of life. From Ancient Greek
comes the word philos, which means friend
and anthropos for human, philanthropy,
love of humans, love of others, like humanism. Our ancient Greek friends also distinguished 4 types of love; Eros, Storge, Philia
and Agape. Eros for romance, Storge for

affection, Philia for friendship and Agapefor unconditional love. While the apparent
form of philanthropy can look the same, themotivation might be different; tax reduction, acknowledgment from others, wanting
to show off as benefactors and then there iscompassion, the realization that everythingis one, having a conscience and oneness areone. We are all concerned by everything
on this planet. Irrelevant of our word andacts, intention is what counts and what life
holds us accountable for. Even though many
words and deeds seem nice and altruistic
at first glance, they can be motivated by
the first two incentives. In the long run, we
are what we think and do. In the short run,
we are what we intend. Intention and will
guide our future and destiny. Regardlessof the words we utter and the acts we do,what counts is the motivation behind, isit self-interest or disinterest for us, andinterest for others? No thought, intention or deed goes unaccountable, not in

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the organized and conspicuous religious
sense, but in universal law which is that ofcompassion, everything is one, we are allinterconnected, correlated. Give back tolife your dues the way you pay back yourtaxman responsibly. TA is rather a discipline
in life, an art, not an exact-science. It is
not only about making money, it is a wayof living and perceiving the middle way.
Sometimes in life we know without knowing
and deep down inside each and every oneof us lurks the realization that everything is
One and that we reap what we sow. Somepeople called it conscience. Philosophers
have mused about it for mental gymnastics. Religions have exploited it for masscontrol and manipulation. Few people haveadopted it as higher values and principles intheir lives. Life as living, giving and sharing
is life in accordance of karmic law and theschool of life.
As I was emerging from my thoughts andmeditation, a memory from school days
flashed back at me. I remember a citationfrom one great French philosopher, Voltaire“The world intrigues me and I cannot thinkthat this clock is ticking and has no clockmaker” and I thought, God exists, but not
the way they tell us about…

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

The Action Sequence Method

アクション・シークエンス・メゾッド

ハンク・プルーデン博士（米国・サンフランシスコ・テクニカルアナリスト協会）サンフランシスコ・ゴールデンゲート大学・Agenoビジネス・スクール教授
byProfessor Hank Pruden Ph.D. (TSAASF—USA), Ageno School of Business, Golden Gate University San Francisco

For over a quarter of a century, I have
四半世紀にわたり私はトレーダーや投資
taught technical analysis to traders and家に、テクニカル分析の大学レベルの教育を続けてきました。意欲のある金融ビ
analysts at the university level. I am proud
ギナーに教え、プロの投資家やトレー
to have won multiple “best teacher” andダーにチャレンジする能力という点で“best scholar” awards based on my ability「ベスト・ティーチャー」、「ベスト研to teach motivated beginners in finance
究者」の両方の賞を得ることができたこ
and to challenge experienced professionalとを大変誇りにしています。この間、投investors and traders. The feedback from
資のプロの方々からのフィードバック
investment professionals during that time
は、行動ファイナンス、テクニカル分析
brought about continuous improvementsの原理と応用における継続的な改善に大in the application of behavioral financeいに役立ちました。私の教育者としてのand technical analysis principles and pro最大の課題は、人々を、原則を理解する
cedures. I found my greatest educational
レベルから、それを実践するレベルに引
challenge to be helping people progress
き上げることを支援することであること
from the definition level of instruction toに気づきました。
the application of theory.

何年にもわたり、私の経験と二次的なリOver the years, I have used my own experiサーチを基に、革新的で有効な教育シス
ences, coupled with secondary research,
テムであるアクション・シークエンス法
to develop an innovative, workable eduを発展させてきました。これはテクニカ
cational system, the Action Sequence
ル分析の中級レベルの学習者のための教
method, for building the skills and knowl育システムです。アクション・シークエ
edge of intermediate learners of technical
ンス法を大きく分類すれば、ペーパー・analysis. While the Action Sequence may be
トレーディングと考えられがちですが、very roughly thought of as paper trading,
この手法では幅広いフィードバックに当
the method includes extensive feedback
初のシークエンスのリプレイを加えるこand replays the original sequence, incorとで、以前の経験からの学習も組み込ん
porating lessons learned from the previous
でいます。このリプレイ部分はとても重要で、これを学ぶことで、勉強中のト
experience. The replay portion of the modelレーダーが将来のマーケットに適切に対
is critical; in this way, the student-trader is
応できるようになるのです。
being trained to react appropriately tofuture market circumstances.

分析的フレームワーク
Analytical Framework
テクニカル分析におけるアクション・
The Action Sequence in technical market
シークエンスは、ビジネス・スクール等
analysis is a modification of the case study
で使われているケース・スタディ・メ
method of instruction. At the Harvard
ソッドを修正したものになります。ハー
School of Business, students actively learn
バード・ビジネス・スクールの学生たち
from experience using the case method.
はケース・メソッドを用い、経験から活There are several strong parallels between
発に習います。アクション・シーケンス
the Action Sequence and the case method:とケース・メソッドは強い類似点があり
 Analysis of practical problems drawn
ます。
from real-life situations. Students putting
・実生活から生じる実際の問題の分析。
themselves in the positions of managers.
学生は自分を実際のマネージャーの立場
A decision-making orientation.
に置く。
 Learning by doing or an experiential
・意思決定指向
approach.
・実体験を通じての学習または体験学習
 Developing the student’s understanding,アプローチ
judgment, and communication leading
・学生たちの理解、判断、コミュニケー
to effective action.
ションを発達させて効果的な行動へと導
く Building dependable self-reliance within
the student.
・自信と自立力の養成
In addition, the Action Sequence empha加えて、アクション・シークエンスは、
sizes
the application of time-tested Wyckoff
市場行動の過去のケースをより具体的なprinciples of market behavior to concrete
ものにするため、時間的な試練を受けた
case histories of market action. The student
ワイコフ原則の応用も重視します。学生
gains knowledge as well as skill and judgたちは株式市場分析のワイコフ手法の実
ment through the practical application of
際の教材を現実的に応用することで、知the substantive material of the Wyckoff
識と経験を得ることが出来ます。多分、
method of stock market analysis. Perhaps
このダイナミックな教育手法のエッセン
スは、トレーダーやアナリストの興味を
the essential value of this dynamic educa呼び覚ますことができるということでtion technique lies in its ability to excite
しょう。トレーダーはこの教育プロセス
interest in the trader-analyst. The traderにおいて受身でいるのでなく、積極的な
will become an active participant in the
参加者になります。

往々にして、エキサイティングで挑戦的
educational process instead of remaining a
な教育への参加は自己の適性感覚を不安
passive recipient. Often, our participation inにしますが、それが自己発展を求めるこ
education that is exciting, challenging, andとにつながります。この教育経験によrelevant disturbs our sense of adequacy
り、トレーダーが手探り状態、自己発
and causes us to seek self-improvement. If
見、盲点の発見などに気づけば、本当にthe educational experience provides oppor重要な場、つまりディーリング・デスク
tunity for the trader to encounter groping,における自己の行動を実際に変革させる
self-discovery, and the uncovering of blind
ことにつながるでしょう。
spots, real change in behavior can result
where it counts—back on the trading desk.

アクション・シートやフィードバックによる次のような練習してみましょう。実An exercise with an action sheet and feed際のトレーディングをアクション・シー
back follows; I encourage you to practice
クエンス手法に基づき、実際にやってみtrading using the Action Sequence method.
ることをお奨めします。
Action Sheet and Feedback Exercise
アクション・シートとフィードバック演
In this exercise, you will conduct a technical習
analysis of the daily vertical line chart of a
この練習では、株式の毎日の折れ線グラ
stock and enter or exit trading positions.
フを用いたテクニカル分析を行い、トレーディング・ポジションを構築したり
The period covered is December of the
解消したりします。カバーされる期間は
first year until November of the next year.
12月から翌年の11月までです。この期
During this period, you will find intermedi間、ボトム近辺においてショートカバー
ate swings for covering and going long near
またはロング・ポジションにし、ピーク
the bottoms and selling out and making
近辺において売り抜けまたは空売りをす
short sales near the peaks. Use protective
る機会となる中期スウィングがありま
stops on all trades. Pyramiding with a trend
す。すべての取引にストップ・ロスを置
is sometimes advisable.
きます。トレンドに沿ったピラミッディ
ング（ポジションの積み増し）も有効で
Use all appropriate Wyckoff principles andす。
techniques at your command. This is an
あらゆるワイコフ原則を適切に使いこな“open book” exercise; as you go throughして下さい。これは「オープン・ブッ
the Action Sequence, feel free to consult
ク」演習です。

アクション・シークエンスをすすめるに
other sections of The Three Skills or any
当たり、「３つのスキル」のセクショ
notes you’ve taken.
ン、その他、自身で取ったメモも自由に参照して下さい。

With this exercise, you will find an “Action
Form,” accompanied by a chart with a slice
この演習で、あなた自身のデータを一部
of the year’s data. You are to reconstruct
加えて作成したチャートが付属する「アthe chart price and volume in your own
クション・フォーム」が出来上がりまhand on tracing paper, then interpret theす。あなたは手書きで価格と出来高のpresent position and probable future trend
チャートを、トレーシング・ペーパーにof the stock, gauging the relationships
書きこんでいきます。そして、需要と供
between supply and demand. Next, judge
給の関係を測定し、現在の状況と将来のthe underlying motive of the Composite
株価動向の見通しを立てることになりま
Man and take definite action: buying, sellす。次に、大口トレーダーら(*)が何をしing, or remaining neutral.
ようとしているかを判断し、明確なアクションを決めます。買いか、売りか、中Following each action sheet, you will find
立の継続か。
a “Feedback” section. Feedback is composed of two parts. The first part consists
それぞれのアクション・シートに続いof the feedback from the market itself. Thisて、「フィードバック」のセクションに“what really happened” type of feedback
入ります。フィードバックは二つの部分からなります。最初の部分は市場からのis the most powerful feedback of all. The
フィードバックそのものから構成されま
second part of feedback is the commentaryす。この「市場で実際に何が起きたか」from some person skilled in interpretingというフィードバックが最も強力なthe Wyckoff method, the Life Cycle Model
フィードバックです。二つ目の部分はof Crowd Behavior, and The Ten Tasks of「群衆行動のライフ・サイクル・モデ
Top Trading. In the case of the stock chart
ル」、「トップ・トレーディングの10のsequence used in this exercise, I will playタスク」等のワイコフ理論の解釈に精通
the role of the commentator offering
した人たちのコメントで構成されます。
expert opinion.
この演習における株式チャート・シーク
エンスのケースでは、私はエキスパート
You can replay the previous action if you
として意見を述べる役割です。
are not in sync with the market. Following

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

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Education Lounge

The Action Sequence Method continued

マーケットの動きにシンクロしない場合
the feedback and replay, go on to the next
は、ひとつ前のアクションに戻ります。
action sheet in the series and so on until the
フィードバックとリプレイをしながらアsequence is complete. At the conclusion of
クション・シートに沿って続け、シーク
the Action Sequence series, take note of
エンスが完了するまで続けます。アクwhich Wyckoff principles were particularly
ション・シートがシリーズとして完了し
useful to you so they will be in your arsenal
た時、有益だったワイコフ理論をノート
the next time you are given an opportunity
しておきます。これが、次にトレーディ
to trade.
ングをする時のあなたの武器庫になるでしょう。
In the future, when you are on you own, I
encourage you to apply the same sort of
将来あなたが自分自身でトレーディング
logic contained in this Action Sequence
をする時、是非このアクション・シーク
exercise to your own trading. You will disエンス演習のロジックを使ってみてくだ
cover this approach especially helpful durさい。この手法が、あなたが売買したいと思っている株式、商品、先物、その他
ing instances when you are back-testing orのトレーディングの対象となる金融商品
paper-trading a stock, commodity, future,
で、バックテストやペーパー・トレー
or any other instrument you wish to add toディングを行う際に、特に役立つというyour inventory. In addition, the logic and
ことがわかるでしょう。更にこの演習にprocedures demonstrated in this exercise
おける理論と手順は、あなたが「トッcan assist you greatly in conducting the
プ・トレーディングの10のタスク」につdebriefing and periodic review tasks of the
いてブリーフィングや定例報告をする時
Ten Tasks of Top Trading.

に大いに役立つでしょう。

Since the Action Sequence is wrapped

アクション・シークエンスは実践教育の
up with a learn-by-doing educational phi哲学に基づくものですから、演習を行う
losophy, it is imperative that you become
時にはフルに参加することが必須です。
fully engaged in the exercise by carefully
アクション・シークエンス・フォームのand completely filling out each and every
構成要素の一項目、一項目を、注意深
one of the components you see on the
く、そして完全に、自分自身で書き入れ
Action Sequence form. Please do not justて行かなければなりません。決して項目
skip over some items or skip writing downを飛ばしたり、自身の考えを書き留める
your thoughts. Doing the thinking andことを省いたりしてはいけません。考えthe writing helps immeasurably in buildたり書き留めたりすることがスキルの向ing skills and forming the correct habits
上、更には正しい判断力を身につけるこ
for a judgmental method. Studying theとに大いに役立つのです。市場や各種論
feedback from the market and from the
評からのフィードバックを研究することは、あなたのスキル、知識、判断力を高める
commentaries is essential to building yourためには必須なのです。
skills, your knowledge, and your judgment.

アクション・シークエンス
1 （需要ActionSequence 1 Interpreting
supplyと供給の解釈）and demand: Using Figure 9.5, complete
9.5の図を使ってシークエンスを完成さ
this
action sequence in its entirety before
せなさい。決して先を見ずに、まずこの
movingon to the next action sequence;
シークエンスを完成させなさい。
donot look ahead!
1. 透明な紙にこのチャートを書き直しな
Redraw the chart on transparency
1.
paper in your own hand so as to get a
さい。価格と出来高が感覚的にわかる
feel for the price and volume action.
ように、必ず自分自身で書きなさい。
（自身の観察を、ワイコフ理論に沿っ(Verbalize to yourself, in Wyckoff termsて口に出して言いましょう。）
andprinciples, your observations.)
2.
2. 需要と供給の関係を判定しなさい。現Interpret the relationship between
在の位置は何か？将来予想される市場
supply and demand. What is the presentのトレンドは何か？
position and probable future trend of
3. 市場に参加しているトレーダーらは何
the market?
をしようとしているのか？
3. What is the motive of the Composite
4. 次の中から一つ選びなさい。空欄を埋
Operator?
4.めなさい。
Select one of the following. Fill in theblanks.
e.____で買い（ロング）、＿＿にス
e. Buy or go long atwith a
トップを置くstop atf.＿＿で売り（ショート）、＿＿にス
f. Sell or go short at
トップを置くwith a stop atg.現在のポジションを＿＿＿＿でクロー
g. Close out an existing position at
ズする
h.現在のポジションに置いているストッh. Move the stop on an existing position
プを＿＿＿に動かす
toi.何もせず今後の進展を見守るi.
Do nothing; await further
5. このアクション・シークエンスの中に
developments.
ある行動を起こすにあたり、あなたが5.得るべき適切な心理状態に持っていく
Which of the Ten Tasks of Top Trading
would you want to adopt to gain the proper
ために、「トップ・トレーディングのmental state for the implementation of
10のタスク」のどれを採用したいか？
the type of task you believe is involved（例えば、アクションをとる機を狙う状
in this action sequence? (For example,
態にすることが、このアクション・シー
stalking.) is the proper task for the
クエンスに必要な精神コントロールに適
mental state management needed in
切なタスクか？）
this action sequence?

アクション・シークエンスのフィード
バック
1 on Action Sequence 1: The
Feedback
市場自体が貴重なフィードバック練習を
market itself gives the essential feedback
与えてくれます。アクション・シークエ
lesson. If you look ahead to the chart for
ンス2の図（図9.6）を見れば、ポイント
action sequence 2 (Figure 9.6), you will see
1からポイント２にかけて、価格が出来
that from point 1 to point 2, the market
高の拡大を伴い急伸していることが分か
rose sharply on expanding volume. This was
ります。これは強気です。更に価格はポa bullish action. Moreover, price traced out
イント１とポイント２を結ぶトレンドのa pattern of higher lows and higher highs
ハイヤー・ロウとハイヤー・ハイのトレ
within the trend channel connecting points
ンドに沿っています。これも強気です。
1 and 2. That, too, was bullish action. But
しかし、このフィードバックと解説は、
this feedback and commentary have the
既に結果が分かっていることについて完
benefit of 20/20 hindsight.
璧な予測を行うという、後知恵の要素があります。
図9.5 9.5:
アクション・シークエンス
FigureAction Sequence 1

1

このアクション・シークエンス１の先行
The foresight analysis called for in action
き分析は簡単ではありません。しかし
sequence 1 was not so easily done. Yet, by
2004年12月から2005年８月の価格と数
carefully examining the price and volume
量を注意深く分析すると、トレーダー・from December 2004 to August 2005, theアナリストは、価格下落は多分、デスト
trader-analyst could discern clues that the
リビューション（注：一定レンジで株をdownward to sideways price action was
売却すること）はなく、アキュムレー
probably accumulation and not distribuション（注：一定レンジで株を購入する
tion. The large volume entering the market
こと）だろうという手がかりを得られる
at the market low points of March and May
でしょう。2005年3月と、5月/6月の市場
June 2005 also points to accumulation.
の下落時期に、出来高が増加しているのもアキュムレーション考えられます。これらのターニング・ポイントから分かる
Those turning points showed that the
ことは、大口トレーダーら(*)と需要の強Composite Man and the forces of demand
さが、売り圧力を吸収しているというこ
were willing to absorb the offerings thatとを示しているのです。
were pressed upon the market.
ポイント1は、市場が上伸する用意があ
Point 1 was used by the Composite Man to
るかどうかを見るため、大口トレーダー
test the market’s readiness to advance. It(*)がテストしているポイントです。
shows a penetration below prior
そこでは、価格が以前に作っsupport that the Composite
たサポート・ラインを突き抜
Man created in an effort to
けて下がっていますが、これ
attract a following of public sellは大口トレーダー(*)が一般のers. The comparatively heavy
売り手を惹きつけるために作
volume during the last weeks
り上げたものです。2005年の7of July and the first week of
月最終週から8月第1週にかけ
August 2005 revealed a subての出来高増は、弱気筋の大stantial effort and following by
きな努力とフォローがあった
the bears. But the continuation
ことを示しています。しかof this bearish decline failed
し、この弱気筋による価格下
to materialize and in fact was
落を継続させようとする努力
reversed by the rally in lateは実を結ぶことなく、実際に8August.
月終盤の上昇により、上げ転換になりました。

Everything now depended on
the power of the next decline.
こうなると、全ては次の下落の強さがどの程度かということにThe very shallow downside price依るという状況です。

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

page 15
Education Lounge

The Action Sequence Method continued

9月中旬にかけての低下傾向の弱まりと出actioninto mid-September coupled with a
来高減少は、弱気筋が疲労困ぱいして市場
diminishment
in volume indicated that the
支配力を失い、強気筋が優勢となっていっbears were exhausted and/or losing control
たことが分かります。ワイコフ理論のスプ
andthat the bulls were gaining the upper
リング原理が当てはまっているようです。
hand.
The Wyckoff principle of a spring
すなわち、トレーディング・レンジのサ
appeared
to be at work, with an action
ポート・ラインを下回ったところで反発
below
support levels in the trading range,
し、価格変動幅の縮小と出来高の減少を伴andthen its successful test on smaller priceい、きちんと安値を試すという展開です。
spreadand lower volume. A trader could
この解釈が出来ていたトレーダーは、
haveelected to buy his first one-third of his
2005年9月中旬の価格が低い時期にポジ
capitalposition in the vicinity of the price
ションの最初の3分の1を買い進めること
lowsof mid-September 2005.
ができたでしょう。

A protective sell stop-order must be
損切りのための売りのストップ・オーダー
enteredby the trader a few points below
は、ポイント1の少し下の水準に設定して
the price low at point 1.

おかねばなりません。

A trader would have needed to exercise
2005年の1月から8月にかけては、トレー
patience throughout the weeks of January
ダーはレンジ相場の暗い雰囲気の中で辛抱
to August 2005 as the market groomed
強くせねばならなかったのです。そしてポ
itself in a trading range for either a markup
イント１から市場が上昇するのに沿って、
or a downtrend. Then, as the market sprang
気持ちを切り替え、ロー・リスクのトレー
upward from the low at point 1, the trader
ディング・アイディアを構築し、機を狙っ
would have been wise to go through theてアクションを取るのが賢明だったという
mentaltasks of building a low-risk idea,
ことです。
stalking the trade, and then taking action.
*原文で「Composite
Man」となっている部分は「大口トレーダー」と訳しましたが、「スマート・マネー」と言う意
味合いがあります。また、「相場操縦に近いようなことも行える大口投機筋」というようなニュアンスを持つこともあり
ます。

図9.5
アクション・シークエンス
Figure 9.5:
Action Sequence 2

2

President’s Report[continued from page 1]
finance. The most important change
is that there will now only be one
syllabus for two exams. The difference between the exams is the way
they are conducted (multiple-choiceversus essay). We are sure that thesechanges will give the CFTe program amodern design, and therefore, value
to its holders.
I wish you all the best in your analysis
and trading. I am looking forward
to seeing you in San Francisco in
October.
Best regards,

Rolf Wetzer, Ph.D.
IFTA President

W.D. Gann Stock Market
Forecasting Workshop
No other historical WallStreet Trader and forecasterhas been an enigma quite
like W.D. Gann. What did
he discover and how can weapply it now?
Bill Meridian and Olga
Morales combine theirexperience, knowledge andexpertise for this dynamic
2-day workshop.

When: May 18-19, 2013
Where:

Hilton Times Square
234 West 42nd St.
New York, NY 10036
www.timessquare.hilton.com

Fee: $2,000 US
To Register: www.billmeridian.com

Featured Topics: Forecasting techniques and cycles hidden in The Tunnel thru the Air
 Techniques left behind in his famous letters
 Gann’s most important Cycles
 Natural Cycles
 Squaring Price with Time Gann’s Time and Price Boom and Bust Cycles
 Cotton Trades in TTTA- discover why he bought and sold on specific days

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

Member NewsIFTA加盟協会ニュース(maximum of 10 students) and will help
prepare candidates ahead of the August
registration and October examination.
For more details and to register, contact
Ron William at ronwilliamPR@gmail.com
or go to http://www.samt-org.ch/pdf/
SAMT%20Geneva%20CFTe%20Prep%20
course.June.pdf

Martin J. Pring Interview

SAMT (Switzerland)

Mr. Pring was a guest speaker at the SAMT
Geneva Chapter October 2012 Meeting“Investing in the Second Lost Decade”. Mr.
Ron William, Vice President of the Geneva
Chapter of SAMT, had the opportunity tointerview Mr. Pring in January.

Taking Technical Analysis to a
Higher Level

Click here to read the full interview.

Ron William (SAMT), Martin J. Pring

On June 8th-9 th, the Geneva Chapter of
SAMT will present a two-day immersion
course on advanced technical analysis andpreparation for the IFTA Certified Financial
Technicians (CFTe) Level II examination. This
course is designed for professionals withmarket experience who are familiar with theessentials of technical analysis and also for
those who would like to use more advanced
technical analysis on a regular basis.
This “immersion” course is worth about
15 hours of focused classroom training

page 17

STA (United Kingdom)
The UK STA continues to conduct monthly
meetings with prominent speakers. In
January, the panel discussion featured
Sunil Goel of Continuous Change Charts,
Peter Goodburn of WaveTrack Internationaland Steve Lucas of 3cAnalysis. They eachshowed their favourite charts for 2013 anda lively debate was had.
In February, Ron William of RW Advisorygave an informative talk on his methodology and candlestick analysis. On March
12th, Mathew Verdouw of Market Analyst
International gave a presentation on Market
Profile and on April 9th, Tony Plummer will
be presenting about his new book on Gann(please note that this April meeting is open
to STA members only).
The STA is always on the look out for new
and interesting speakers. If you feel you
have a subject or topic worth presenting on
and you are visiting London please contact
Murray Gunn, murraygunn@waveprincipleletters.com.

IFTA Journal
Call for Papers—
Deadline for
Submissions is
May 31st!
Click here forthe submission
guidelines

IFTAUPDATE 2012 Volume 20 Issue 1

page 18

IFTA
加盟協会・理事
IFTA Member
Societies
AUSTRALIA—ATAA Australian Technical Analysts Association www.ataa.com.au
AUSTRIA—VTAO* Vereinigung Technischer Analysten Österreichs www.vtao.at
BOSNIA and HERZEGOVINA—SMS* Society for Market Studies trzisnestudije.org
CANADA—CSTA Canadian Society of Technical Analysts www.csta.org
CROATIA- CTAA* Croatian Technical Analysis Association
EGYPT—ESTA Egyptian Society of Technical Analysts www.estaegypt.org
FRANCE—AFATE Association Française des Analystes Techniques www.afate.com
GERMANY—VTAD Vereinigung der Technischer Analysten Deutschlands e.V. www.vtad.de
INDIA—ATA The Asociation of Technical Analysis www.taindia.org
INDONESIA—AATI Asosiasi Analis Teknikal Indonesia
ITALY—SIAT Società Italiana di Analisi Tecnica www.siat.org
JAPAN—NTAA Nippon Technical Analysts Association www.ntaa.org.jp
LEBANON—LSTA* Lebanese Society of Technical Analysts
NIGERIA—STAN* Society for Technical Analysts, Nigeria
NETHERLANDS—DCTA Dutch Commission of Technical Analysis
NEW ZEALAND—STANZ Society of Technical Analysts of New Zealand www.stanz.co.nz
PAKISTAN—STAP* Society of Technical Analysts Pakistan www.stap.com.pk/index.html
ROMANIA—AATROM Asociatia Analistilor Tehnici din Romania www.aatrom.org
SAUDI ARABIA—SSTA* Saudi Society of Technical Analysts www.saudi-sta.org
SCANDINAVIA—STAF Skandinaviens Tekniska Analytikers Förening www.staf.nu
SINGAPORE—TASS Technical Analysts Society (Singapore) www.tass.org.sg
SOUTH AFRICA—TASSA Technical Analysts Society of Southern Africa www.tassa.org.za
SWITZERLAND—SAMT Swiss Association of Market Technicians www.samt-org.ch
UNITED KINGDOM—STA Society of Technical Analysts Ltd. www.sta-uk.org
USA—TSAASF Technical Securities Analysts Association www.tsaasf.org
USA—AAPTA American Association of Professional Technical Analysts www.aapta.org* Developing

IFTA Update Schedule
IFTA Update is the quarterly electronic newsletter of the International Federation of TechnicalAnalysts, reaching more than 6,950+ IFTA colleagues worldwide. The Update is an efficientand cost-effective way to communicate with IFTA’s member societies and colleagues.

PUBLICATION SCHEDULE
June Issue

Education articles: May 15—send submissions to newsletter@ifta.org
All other content: June 1—send submissions to admin@ifta.org

September Issue
December Issue
March Issue

Education articles: August 15
Education articles: November 15
Education articles: February 15

All other content: September 1
All other content: December 1
All other content: March 1

For more information and to advertise,
visit our website http://www.ifta.org/publications/newsletter/

Board of Directors
President Rolf Wetzer, Ph.D. (SAMT)Email: rolf.wetzer@ifta.org
Vice-President—the Americas William Chin, MBA (CSTA)
Email: wchin@e3m.com
Vice-President—Asia Akira Homma, CFA, CIIA, CFTe, FRM, CMA, CMT (NTAA)
Email: ahomma.nettai@gmail.com
Vice-President—Europe Deborah Owen, FSTA, CFTe (STH)
Email: editor@irc1oo.com
Vice-President—Middle East, Africa Mohamed Ashraf Mohfauz, MFTA, CFTe, CETA (ESTA)
Email: mohamed.ashraf.esta@gmail.com
Treasurer Ralph Böckel, CFA
Email: ralph.bockel@freenet.de
Education Director Saleh Nasser, CMT (ESTA)
Email: snasser@link.net
Accreditation Director Roberto Vargas, CFTe (TSAASF)
Email: roberto.vargasr@ifta.org
Marketing Director Dan Valcu, CFTe (AATROM)
Email: ta@educofin.com
Development Director Robert Grigg (ATAA)
Email: robert.grigg@ifta.org
Conference Director Roman Bogomazov (TSAASF)
Email: roman.bogomazov@ifta.org
Journal Director Aurélia Gerber, MBA, CFA (SAMT)Email: aurelia.gerber@ifta.org
Website Content Director Akihiro Niimi, MFTA (NTAA)
Email: niimia@aifaminc.com
Membership Director David Furcajg, CFTe, MFTA (AFATE)
Email: dfurcajg@3rdwaveconsult.com

STAFF
Executive Director Beth W. Palys, FASAE, CAE
Vice President, Meetings Grace L. Jan, CAE, CMP
Senior Member Services Manager Linda Bernetich
Marketing Manager Julie Hill
Senior Graphic Designer Jon BenjaminAccounting Dawn Rosenfeld

IFTA HEADQUARTERS
International Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

Phone: +1 240-404-6508
Fax: +1 301-990-9771
Email: admin@ifta.org

26th Annual IFTA Conference
October 9-11, 2013  San Francisco, CA USA

2013年IFTAサンフランシスコ大会スポンサーシップ案内

Sponsorship Oppor tunities

1Sponsorship Opportunities
The Golden Gate Bridge is the
spectacular symbol for the 26th
Annual IFTA Conference. The
Golden Gate opens up, reaches
out and welcomes Financial
Practitioners from around the globe
to beautiful San Francisco. “TheCity by the Bay” warmly embraces
the traditional and the innovative.
A mere thirty miles from Silicon
Valley, it represents the spirit of hightech innovation while having a richtradition rooted in the Gold Rush
Days of the 19th century. To thenorth are the magniﬁcent wineriesof the Napa Valley.
This backdrop is the setting for
the Annual IFTA Conference for2013. EVOLUTION TO MASTERY:Technical Analysis, Systems
and Execution is the theme
that will draw practitioners andprofessionals from all cornersof the world. With ever greater
connectivity of ﬁnancial markets

around the globe the techniques,
methods and skills in TechnicalMarket Analysis are ever more
important. The 32 IFTA afﬁliatedsocieties in 31 countries are
devoted to the EVOLUTION TO
MASTERY of their membership.
In that tradition IFTA and the
local Technical Security Analysts
Association of San Francisco
has assembled a stellar portfolio
of presenters with the purposeof further elevating the skills of
the attendee toward the goalof Mastery. Emphasis of theconference is on the developmentof mastery skills of technicalsystems and execution.
The level of Conference
presentations will be geared
toward professionally employed
Technical Analysts, Financial
Sector Senior Managers, FundManagers, Asset Allocators,
Financial Planners and also highly

experienced private ﬁnancial
market traders / investors.
The magniﬁcent and historicInterContinental Mark Hopkins
Hotel will be the San Francisco
home for this unique conference.
Located atop Nob Hill attendees
will enjoy the breathtaking views of
San Francisco and surroundings
during the glorious fall seasonof the year. Conference eventsare planned to emphasize thisspectacular Northern California
autumn season.
Sponsors will enjoy a unique
opportunity to have exposure
to, and network with cuttingedge professionals from acrossthe globe. In addition sponsors
will be associated with aconference theme that elevatesthe importance of world-classmethods, tools and technologies
essential to the Mastery Path.

Technical Analysis is the systematic method of analysing ﬁnancial instruments, including securities, futures and interest rate products, with only
market-delivered information such as price, volume, volatility and open interest. The tools of technical analysis are measurements and derivatives of
price, for example on-balance volume, price oscillators, momentum measurements and pattern recognition. A Technical Analyst applies such tools forforecasting and timing the trading and investing in ﬁnancial instruments. Technical Analysis is a universally recognized discipline.

2

Sponsorship Packages
Beneﬁts of Exhibiting and Sponsoring: Contact new prospects and generate leads Market your product to delegates from over 30 countries
 Showcase new innovations by your company to the worldwide technical market analysis community
 Promote company image and maximize market exposure Discuss the needs of your clients ﬁrst-hand and demonstrate the solutions offered by your company
 Gain insight into market trends to aid in your strategic planning

Select the sponsorship package that best suits your needs

Platinum: USD $15,000

Gold: USD $10,000

Pre-Conference Publicity

Pre-Conference Publicity

 Primary logo on IFTA web site (www.ifta.org)
through 2013 with link to your own site

 Prominent logo on IFTA web site (www.ifta.org)
through 2013 with link to your own site ½ page, 4-color ad in electronic IFTA Updatein two (2) issues (reaches 7000 colleagues
around the world) ½ page, 4-color ad in electronic IFTA Updatein two (2) issues (reaches 7000 colleagues
around the world)

 Logo on all mailings

 Logo on all mailings

 1 page, 4-color IFTA Journal ad ½ page, 4-color IFTA Journal ad (inside)

Conference Publicity

Conference Publicity

 Exhibition space (2.5m2)
Sponsor selects the location.

 Exhibition space (2.5m2)

 Speaking opportunity at lunch (conditions apply) Prominent logo inside Conference
Notebook/Final Program

 Sponsor sign in presentation halls
 Primary logo inside Conference Notebook/Final
Program Full page, 4-color ad in Conference Notebook (A5) Sponsor sign in presentation halls

 Full page, B/W (inside) ad in Conference Notebook (A5) Two Full Conference registrations for
employees or guests

 Two Full Conference registrations for
employees or guests
 Co-Sponsors Wednesday evening Reception at
Top of the Mark3

Sponsorship Packages
Silver: USD $7,500

Bronze: USD $2,500

Pre-Conference Publicity

Pre-Conference Publicity

 Logo on IFTA web site (www.ifta.org) through2013 with link to your own site

 Logo on IFTA web site (www.ifta.org) through 2013
with link to your own site

 1/4 page, 4-color ad in electronic IFTA Updatein two (2) issues (reaches 7000 colleagues aroundthe world)

 Logo on all mailings

 Logo on all mailings

Conference Publicity
 Logo inside Conference Notebook/Final Program

Conference Publicity
 Exhibition space (2.5m2)
 Sponsor sign in presentation halls

General Event & Special Sponsorships

 Prominent logo inside Conference
Notebook/Final Program

Hotel Key Cards$2,000 ½ page, B/W (inside) ad in
Conference Notebook (A5)

Refreshment Breaks$2,500Opening Reception (Wednesday)$3,000 One Full Conference
registration for employee
or guest

Lunches (Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday)$5,000 ea$10,000

IFTA Gala Dinner

Saturday’s social event inquire with the Conference Director
Roman Bogomazov at rbogomazov@ggu.edu

Send your completed application NOW for maximum pre-Conference exposure to:Nancy Copen, Exhibits Manager, Email: ncopen@mgmtsol.com Fax to: +1 (301) 990-9771
For any questions concerning sponsorship, contact:
Roman Bogomazov, Conference Director Email: rbogomazov@ggu.edu

4Sponsorship Application Form
Complete NOW for maximum
pre-conference exposure
Return application to: Nancy Copen, Exhibits Manager
Email: ncopen@mgmtsol.com, Fax to: +1 (301) 990-9771
You may send this information in a regular email or alternatively
fax or scan and email this form.

Sponsorship Levels

Contact Information

Method of Payment(indicate selection)

Platinum

USD $15,000

Gold

USD $10,000

Silver

USD $7,500

Bronze

USD $2,500

Credit Card

Visa

MasterCard

American Express

ﬁrm
name
address
credit card number

General Event Sponsorships
Hotel Key Cards

Check – Make payable to IFTA (US Dollars)

name

city
USD $2,000

expiration datesecurity code

state

Refreshment Breaks

USD $2,500

Opening Reception

USD $3,000

signature

Lunches
IFTA Gala Dinner

USD $5,000 ea

country

postal code / zip code

USD $10,000

Saturday’s social event inquire with
Conference Director: rbogomazov@ggu.edu

telephoneInternational Federation of Technical Analysts
9707 Key West Avenue, Suite 100
Rockville, MD 20850 USA

fax

Contact: Nancy Copen, Exhibits Manager
Email: ncopen@mgmtsol.com Phone: +1 (240) 404-6480
Web: www.ifta.org
Fax: +1 (301) 990-9771

e-mail5