Energy Technology Perspectives 2023
Dr. Timur Gül, Head Energy Technology Policy Division, IEA
IEEJ, Tokyo, 3 February 2023

Page 1

Clean technology supply chain concentration risks extend beyond mining
Current share of global production/capacity by country
100%
80%
60%

Producer countries:
Other40%

Top 3

20%
0%

CobaltLithium
CopperCritical minerals mining

CobaltLithium
CopperCritical material processing

Aluminium
Steel
Bulk materials

Mining

Critical mineralprocessing

Material
production

Producer
DR Congocountries:
AustraliaTop3ChileBatteries

OtherChinaWind

Solar PV

Heat Electrolysers
ELYpumps

Manufacturing

Technologymanufacturing
OtherThe top three countries together account for over 70% of global capacity for manufacturing key clean technologies.
China is the single largest producer in all major clean technology supply chain steps except mining.
IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

Page 2

Clean technology supply chains benefit from international trade
Main net trade flows for selected clean technologies, 2021

Solar PV modules
EuropeNorth America

China

Share of trade inglobal deployment:~60%
Deployment
Domestic production
Imports

IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

OtherAsia PacificPage 3

Clean technology supply chains benefit from international trade
Main net trade flows for selected clean technologies, 2021

WindEurope
North America

China

Share of trade inglobal deployment:~20%
Deployment
Domestic production
Imports

IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

OtherAsia PacificPage 4

Clean technology supply chains benefit from international trade
Main net trade flows for selected clean technologies, 2021

JapanEurope
North America

China

Korea

EV batteries
Share of trade inglobal deployment:~10%
Deployment
Domestic production
Imports

A large domestic market created by rapid clean technology deployment, combined with concerted industrial policy,
have made China the dominant player in global clean technology manufacturing and trade.
IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

Page 5Investment in clean technology supply chains is on the rise
Annual manufacturing capacity for selected clean technologies

750

610002021
Electrolysers

Today

2030:

1.0Clean technology
manufacturing0.5

Critical mineralprocessing

250

201.5

500

450

1 000

USD trillion

150

8GW

GW

TWh200

Cumulative investment needs in key clean
technology supply chains in the NZE

0.002021
EV batteries

Announced

Critical mineralmining2021PVSolar

2022-2030
2023-2030

NZE needs

Clean technology manufacturing is increasing rapidly, owing in part to short project lead times. If they materialise,
Placeholder for the text of the LHS figure. Placeholder for the text of the LHS figure
announced manufacturing projects would fulfil two-thirds of the investment needs to 2030 in the NZE.
IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

Page 6

Markets for clean technologies constitute a major opportunity

USD billion

Market sizes for supply from announced projects and demand under announced pledges for key clean technologies, 2030
450300

Supply from today’s
announced projects
Demand under announced
climate pledges

1500

China
China

EuropeanEuropeanUnion
Union

UnitedUnitedStates States

India
India

Other
Other
Asia PacificAsia PacificCommitted projects in the United States and the European Union account for less than 20% of domestic expansion
plans, leaving significant opportunity to increase production in fulfilling announced climate pledges.
IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

Page 7

Competitiveness is a key consideration for industrial strategies
Production costs using electrolysis and variable renewables under announced climate pledges, 2030

5Hydrogen-based crude steel
USD/tonne

USD/kgHydrogen

41 000800

3600

2Typical production
costs based onfossil fuels
400

12000

China

India

United Western Japan
States Europe0

China

India

United Western Japan
States Europe

Climate goals and innovation policy are driving new project announcements for energy intensive commodities, but
persistent cost competitiveness gaps indicate the need for strategic partnerships and international collaboration.
IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

Page 8Key takeaways•The energy world is in the early phase of a new industrial age – the age of clean energy technology
manufacturing; reaping the benefits requires an all-of-government approach.

•High geographical and market concentrations threaten supply security; the policies to deal with suchthreats differ by supply chain, and must build on competitive advantages and strengths.

•Boosting supply chain resilience and sustainability is crucial; market disruptions and input pricefluctuations can have profound cost implications.

•Participating in the emerging new energy economy requires industrial strategies that build on amapping of domestic opportunities and identify strategic partnerships.

•Time is of the essence for clean energy technology supply chains; governments hold the key toaccelerating deployment and tapping into economic opportunities.

IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

Page 9

IEA 2023. All rights reserved.

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