© 2016 Journal of International and Advanced Japanese Studies
Vol. 8, March 2016, pp. 157-171 (ONLINE)
Master’s and Doctoral Program in International and Advanced
Japanese Studies
Graduate School of Humanities and Social Sciences.
University of Tsukuba

ArticleUndercurrents in the Silk Road
An Analysis of Sino-Japanese Strategic Competition in Central Asia

Tony Tai-Ting LIU
National Chung Hsing University, Center for Japan and Korea Studies, Associate Research Fellow
This article aims to use Japan’s relations with Yugoslavia as a case in point to examine the character ofWith China’s promotion of the One Belt One Road initiative, consisting of the Silk Road Economic Belt andMaritime Silk Road, at the APEC summit in 2014, where the international community once again focused
its attention on Central Asia. Despite similar emphasis on the strategic importance of land and sea, muchattention has been centered on the continental economic belt that seeks to cross the Eurasia continent byextending westward from China’s historical city Xi’an, through Central Asia and into Europe. As aconnecting point in the One Belt One Road, Central Asia is critical to China’s Go Out strategy. Along with
the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China clearly demonstrates an aspiration to establish its politicaland economic influence in Central Asia.
In terms of geopolitics, while China’s activities in Central Asia remain distant for Japan, its expansion
into the region entails strategic consequences that may severely challenge Japanese foreign policy andsecurity. Although Japan and China have yet to clash directly in Central Asia, incongruent interests between
the two powers already hint at the potential for friction in the region. This article is an attempt to understandthe impending possibilities for conflict between Japan and China in Central Asia. By identifying andcontrasting Tokyo and Beijing’s respective interests and foreign policies in Central Asia, this author suggests
the formation of a new battlefield for Sino-Japanese competition based around institutional leadership,
regional influence and foreign assistance. Three scenarios for conflict are proposed as developments thatmay destabilize regional order and reinforce tensions between Japan and China in the near future.
Keywords: Central Asia, Strategic Competition, Sino-Japanese Relations, Central Asia plus Japan, One Belt One Road

Introduction
Since the turn of the century, Central Asia has played an increasingly important role in global geopolitics.
While part of the region’s significance stems from Harold Mackinder’s Heartland Theory, Central Asia’s strategic
location and rich energy and market potential make the region a fitting arena for great power politics. In 2001,
international attention was drawn to Central Asia with the establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO). As an initial mark of China’s expanding influence in the new century, the SCO sounded an alarm for Japan.
In response, in 2004, Japan established the Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue in an effort to balance China’s growing
influence in Central Asia.
In light of the Shinzo Abe administration’s re-initiation of the Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue in 2014, thispaper seeks to address growing strategic tensions in Central Asia between Japan and China. The analysis will be
carried out in four parts: Part one reviews the significant role of Central Asia in contemporary geopolitics; part two
and part three turn to China and Japan’s strategic interests and foreign policies in Central Asia respectively; and partfour proposes three scenarios for strategic competition between Japan and China in Central Asia in light of recent

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developments. This paper concludes with some insights into the development of Sino-Japanese relations in the near
future.
1. Strategic Significance of Central Asia
Central Asia, a region generally recognized as consisting of the five countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, has long retained an important status in global geopolitics. In the now
renowned Heartland Theory, British geographer Halford Mackinder identified Central Asia as the heartland, or
strategic hub, where the Silk Road links the Eurasia continent. In Mackinder’s words, “he who controls theHeartland controls Eurasia, he who controls Eurasia controls the world.” 1 The statement aptly highlights thegeopolitical meaning of Central Asia.
Besides geopolitical status, Central Asia is also significant in two aspects. First, rich deposits of strategicenergy resources such as oil and natural gas further highlight the global status of Central Asia. In a world in which
economic developments produce ever higher demands for energy, regions harboring energy deposits easily become
flashpoints for potential conflict. 2 Central Asia’s energy potential has yet to be fully exploited, particularly in termsof oil and natural gas resources in the Caspian Sea, the largest enclosed inland sea in the world. Central Asia
currently holds the third largest oil reserves in the world behind the Middle East and Siberia. Land resources aremainly reserved in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, with an estimated potential production of thirty billion barrels ofoil; the potential production of petroleum underwater falls in the range of fifteen to forty billion barrels. 3
Second, Central Asia is strategically located beside the Middle East, which establishes the region as a hotbed
for terrorism and a critical location for counterterrorism alike. Bordering Afghanistan to the south, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan confront the challenge of infiltration by terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda while
Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan face the entry of extremists from neighboring Xinjiang Province. In 2014, thewithdrawal of U.S. troops signaling the end of Washington’s war in the Middle East has raised security concerns
for Central Asia. As Maciej Falkowski and Jozef Lang suggest, alongside U.S. departure from the Middle East isalso Washington’s diminished presence in Central Asia; as U.S. military presence was important in reinforcing
stability in countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, where established bases were open to
American use. 4 Washington’s reduced role in Central Asia after 2014 implies the opening up of a power vacuumin the region.
In recent years, great power competition between the U.S., Russia, China and Japan, among other powers
speak to the strategic importance of Central Asia. In terms of geopolitics, while Central Asia traditionally fell within
the sphere of influence of Russia in the Cold War period, Washington’s war on terror following 9/11 and Beijing’s
concern for extremist activities along its western border have brought the U.S. and China into Central Asia in the
new century. Despite the advancement of bilateral relations and cooperation between Russia and China through the
SCO—a development that seemingly isolates the U.S.—in reality, Moscow, Beijing and Washington have disparate
strategic goals that may prove unsettling for Central Asia.
For the U.S., noting China’s rise in the last decade, Central Asia presents itself as a critical piece to thecontainment strategy that stretches from Japan and South Korea to Southeast Asia and India. 5 For Russia, U.S.
influence along its borders generates uneasiness while China’s expanding relations with Central Asia, in a sense,
threatens Moscow’s long established leadership status in the region. 6 For China, U.S. presence is also unsettling
1

Halford Mackinder, “The Geographical Pivot of History (1904),” The Geographical Journal, Vol.170, No.4 (2004),
pp.298-321; Andrey Fursov, “Central Eurasia: Historical Centrality, Geostrategic Condition and Power Model Legacy,”in Irina Morozova ed., Towards Social Stability and Democratic Governance in Central Eurasia (Amsterdam: IOS
Press, 2005), p.30.
2
The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and the South China Sea are classic examples.
3
Ming Tingquan and Han Xuefeng, “Ershiyi shiji zhongguo shiyou anquan yu zhongguo zhongya zhanlue” (Chinese Oil
Security and Central Asia Strategy in the Twenty First Century) Lanzhou Xuekan, No.5 (2004), p.47.
4
Maciej Falkowski and Jozef Lang, Hostages to Moscow, Clients of Beijing: Security in Central Asia as the Role of theWest Diminishes (Warsaw: Centre for Eastern Studies, Osrodek Studiow Wschodnich, 2014).
5
Tung-chieh Tsai, “Jinqi xijinping chufang zhongya diqu zhi zhanlue yiyi” (Xi Jinping’s Recent Visit to Central Asia
and Its Strategic Implications), Prospect and Exploration, Vol.11, No.10 (2013), p.15.
6
Fan Lijun, “Eluosi ouyalianmeng yu zhongmenge jingjizoulang goujian” (The Establishment of Russia’s “Eurasia

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while border security and energy are key reasons that continue to drive Beijing’s western expansion, even at the riskof potential great power competition. In the case of Japan, the search for energy drove the island nation to Central
Asia; the U.S.-Japan alliance suggests that Tokyo may have difficulties keeping its distance from strategiccompetition in the region.
The year 2015 hinted at a turning point in great power competition in Central Asia. In January, the Eurasian
Economic Union (EEU) consisting of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan was officiallyestablished, forming a custom union and common market of over 180 million people in the northern Eurasian region.
Noting overlapping membership in Central Asia, some Chinese observers have begun to ponder over the EEU’s
implications for the One Belt One Road, a Chinese initiative aimed at economic integration of the Eurasia continent
as well. 7 In October, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe made official visits to Mongolia, Turkmenistan,
Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan—the first visit to Central Asia by a Japanese leader in over a
decade. Immediately following the footsteps of Abe, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called on Central Asia in
November, a development that left some observers wondering whether Tokyo and Washington coordinated theirvisits as an open balancing gesture against Beijing. In a sense, since the opening up of a “power vacuum” following
Washington’s diminished role, Central Asia may be moving towards the formation of a “power plenum” or ageopolitical setting that sees the push and pull for influence by the “crowding in” of states. In the context of thelatter, this paper turns to China and Japan’s potential entanglements in Central Asia.
2. China’s Strategic Interests and Foreign Policy in Central Asia
Since former President Hu Jintao’s proposal of the Four Outlines (sige buju) in 2004, China has continued
to emphasize its central tenet of “great power is the key; surrounding is primary; developing countries are thefoundation; multilateralism is the stage.” 8 In the words of former Foreign Minister Qian Qichen, the primary goalof China’s foreign policy is to maintain the stability of the surrounding environment in order to ensure the normal
functioning of the domestic economy. 9 Located to the west of China, Central Asia conforms to the foreign policy
objectives of Beijing. The stability of Central Asia is important for China’s economic development; security in theregion should be realized in a multilateral manner that includes key powers to the region.
In addition, under the guidance of the Harmonious Worldview (hexie shijieguan), a concept introduced tosupport China’s peaceful development, China further adopted a Good Neighbor Policy (mulin waijiao) that is basedon the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-existence (heping gongchu wu yuanze): Mutual respect for each other’s
territorial integrity and sovereignty; mutual non-aggression; mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs;
equality and cooperation for mutual benefit; and peaceful co-existence. The principles serve as policy guidance forthe shaping of an international environment beneficial for improving China’s economy. 10
In terms of strategic interests, Beijing’s interests in counter-terrorism, energy resource and trade andinvestment are worth noting.

(1) Counterterrorism
In 1991, dissolution of the Soviet Union not only created an opportunity for the breakout of formerly
suppressed nationalistic and religious sentiments in the Soviet sphere of influence, it also gave way to thedevelopment of three challenges: terrorism, separatism and extremism. While the threats that festered in the Middle
Alliance” and the “China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor”), in Zhang Jie ed., Zhongguo Zhoubian Anquan
Xingshi Pinggu 2015 (China’s Regional Security Environment Review: 2015) (Beijing: Social Sciences Academic
Press, 2015), pp.74-75.
7
Yang Chenxi, “Yidaiyilu quyu nengyuan hezuo zhong de daguo yinsu ji yingdui celue” (The Great Power Factor in
One Belt One Road Energy Cooperation and China’s Strategic Response), http://www.ciis.org.cn/chinese/201501/20/content_7620494.htm (January 14, 2016)8
Tung-chieh Tsai, Dangdai Zhongguo Waijiao Zhengce (China’s New Diplomacy: Interpreting Its Connotation and
Tendency) (Taipei: Wunan, 2009), p.79.
9Wayne Bert, The United States, China and Southeast Asian Security: A Changing of the Guard? (New York: Palgrave
Macmillan, 2003), p.112.
10
Ibid.

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East (Afghanistan) did not directly threaten China during much of the Cold War period, the fact that Central Asia
bordered the Middle East generated concerns for Beijing in the post-Cold War period, especially in the new century.
Considering that China’s continued rise and economic development is hinged on a secure neighboring
environment, in 2001, Beijing established the SCO. At the first meeting of the SCO in 2001, besides the
pronouncement of the Declaration on the Establishment of the SCO, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (the Shanghai Six) also signed the Shanghai Convention on Combating Terrorism,
Separatism and Extremism and agreed on the convening of an annual summit meeting to deepen cooperation. In
2004, SCO members further increased their efforts towards counterterrorism by establishing the Regional AntiTerrorism Structure (RATS). 11 Based in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, the main tasks of the RATS include the maintenanceof cooperation with other counter-terrorist institutions in the world and the coordination and organization of counterterrorist exercises. 12
On the occasion of the 14th SCO Summit held in Dushanbe, Tajikistan in 2014, President Xi Jinping reemphasized China’s priority in combating terrorism in Central Asia. In his speech delivered at the summit, Xi noted
the maintenance of regional security and stability as the foremost point in a four-point proposal addressed to themember states. In Xi’s words, members to the SCO should “strengthen the construction of the capacity to maintainstability…grant the RCTS of the SCO the function of drug control as soon as possible, and establish the security
challenge and threat response center…to combat the ‘three evil forces.’” 13 Xi’s statement not only suggests counterterrorism as a strategic priority in China’s policy towards Central Asia, the statement also exposes Beijing’s chronic
consideration for border security, an issue that has been repeatedly raised and re-emphasized since China’s economic
takeoff in the early 2000s. 14(2) Energy Resource
With the transformation of China into a net importer of energy in 1993 and the world’s second largest
consumer of energy in 1997, 15 the international community began speculating how much energy China would
continue to devour in its economic rise and its implications in the future. For China, the critical question is not its
potential energy consumption but where could new energy sources come from and be sustained over time. By 2020,
China’s energy consumption is expected to make up 16.1% of total global consumption. In 2014, China led theworld in oil consumption at 3,034 million tonnes of oil (Mtoe) and in April 2015, surpassed the U.S. to become theworld’s largest importer of oil at 7.4 million barrels per day (the U.S. stood at 7.2 million barrels per day). 16 Noting
China’s immense appetite for energy, Thrassy Marketos has long observed that China’s exponential growth inenergy import would inevitably lead the country to depend excessively on the international market and encourage
Beijing to secure new sources favorable for diversification and sustainable economic development. 17
Strategically, besides Central Asia’s energy potential, two other considerations have encouraged China toinvest in the region. First, as Central Asia straddles the Middle East and Siberia, by strengthening energy cooperation
11

Also referred to as the Regional Counter-terrorist Structure (RCTS).
Shanghai Cooperation Organization, “The Executive Committee of the Regional Counter-Terrorist Structure,”
http://www.sectsco.org/EN123/AntiTerrorism.asp (accessed August 30, 2015)13
See: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, “Xi Jinping Attends SCO Summit in Dushanbe
and Delivers Important Speech Stressing Gathering People’s Will and Power and Coordinating Sincerely to Push to a
New Level,”
http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/topics_665678/zjpcxshzzcygyslshdsschybdtjkstmedfsllkydjxgsfw/t1191482.shtml(accessed September 1, 2015). The “three evil forces” refer to terrorism, separatism and extremism.
14
Tony Tai-Ting Liu and Kai-ming Chang, “In the Name of Integrity and Security: China’s Counterterrorist Policies,” in
Scott Romaniuk, Francis Grice, Daniela Irrera and Stewart Webb eds., The Palgrave Handbook of Global
Counterterrorism Studies (forthcoming 2016).
15
Evan Medeiros, China’s International Behavior (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2009), p.134.
16
See: Enerdata Global Energy Statistical Yearbook 2015,
https://yearbook.enerdata.net/energy-consumption-data.html (accessed September 4, 2015);
David Sheppard and Gregory Meyer, “China Oil Imports Surpass Those of US,” http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/342b3a2ef5a7-11e4-bc6d-00144feab7de.html#axzz3jSjy2sBp (accessed August 30, 2015)17
Thrassy Marketos, China’s Energy Geopolitics: The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Central Asia (New York:
Routledge, 2009), p.15.
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Tony Tai-Ting LIU, An Analysis of Sino-Japanese Strategic Competition in Central Asiawith the region, China could gain easier access to two of the world’s largest oil production sites. Second, cooperation
with Central Asia could benefit China by helping to lower the risk of shipping energy by sea and avert potential
conflict with the U.S. and Japan at sea. 18 Energy interests have led Beijing to invest in the construction of energyrelated infrastructure and pipelines and cooperate with countries in the region through joint excavations and layingof oil and natural gas pipelines. 19(3) Trade and Investment
Aside from security concerns, for China, Central Asia also boasts a sizeable market worth exploring. The
five countries of Central Asia combined have a population of 61 million people, a figure that is slightly higher thanthe population of South Korea and roughly half that of Japan. Chinese trade and investment in Central Asia has
greatly expanded in the new century. According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, the country’s current value of
trade with Central Asia is about one-hundred-fold of the value when relations were first normalized between Beijing
and the five states of Central Asia. 20 With bilateral trade leaping from a mere $547 million in 1994 to $450 billion
in 2014, China is currently the biggest trade partner of Central Asia. Respectively, China is the largest trade partnerof Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the second biggest trade partner of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan and the third
biggest trade partner of Tajikistan. Table 1 captures the growth in trade between China and Central Asia since 2000.

18

Bai-ku Wei, “Zhongguo yu zhongya de nengyuan guanxi: hezuo yu tiaozhan” (China-Central Asia Energy Relations:
Cooperation and Challenges), Journal of International Relations, No.25 (2008), p.67.
19
Ibid., p.58.
20
Xi Wang, “Zhongguo yu zhongya wuguo maoyie yue wei jianjiao zhichu 100 bei” (Trade Value of China and theFive States of Central Asia is About 100 Times More Than the Value at the Beginning of Normalization),
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2013-10/15/c_117721451.htm (accessed August 26, 2015)161

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ChinaKazakhstan

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Table 1: Trade between China and Central Asia (2000-2014)(Unit: hundred millions USD)
ChinaChinaChinaChinaKyrgyzstan
Tajikistan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan

Year

ImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExportImportExport

2000

6.737

1.510

0.670

1.100

0.103

0.067

0.040

0.121

0.120

0.394

2001

6.596

1.720

0.420

0.770

0.053

0.054

0.010

0.314

0.076

0.507

2002

10.230

3.130

0.560

1.460

0.058

0.065

0.010

0.870

0.274

1.042

2003

16.531

5.237

0.700

2.500

0.200

0.208

0.040

1.460

2.002

1.462

2004

19.673

7.582

1.100

4.930

0.200

0.535

0.140

1.720

4.027

1.724

2005

24.23912.518

1.050

8.700

0.142

1.437

0.190

2.300

4.510

2.302

2006

35.92519.2491.130

21.130

0.200

3.100

0.160

3.470

5.658

4.061

2007

56.39635.0731.120

36.700

0.102

5.130

0.490

4.750

3.633

7.659

2008

76.76645.6501.200

92.1000.200

14.800

0.280

6.860

3.304

12.7742009

58.89035.7000.500

52.3001.900

12.200

0.380

5.960

34.93815.5682010

101.200

39.6000.700

41.0000.600

13.80010.4506.600

12.992

11.7802011

153.800

95.7001.000

48.8000.710

20.00046.93010.0608.067

13.5902012

164.800

75.0000.900

50.7001.100

17.50080.22013.36010.91217.8392013

143.340

81.9300.600

50.8000.900

18.70088.93013.56019.18026.1402014

127.120

97.2600.550

52.4300.480

24.69095.1609.540

15.96026.750Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the PRC, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_chn/; China Council for the Promotion of International
Trade, “Haishang sichouzhilu yanxian guojia touzi maoyi zhinan” (Investment and Trade Guide for Countries along the Maritime Silk
Road), http://www.ccpit.org/Contents/Channel_3603/2015/0410/455476/content_455476.htm (Accessed September 4,2015).

Besides Africa and Southeast Asia, Central Asia is another important arena for China to realize its Go Out(zouchuqu) Policy. In addition to trade, Chinese investment in Central Asia has increased steadily. In 2014, China
was the largest provider of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Kyrgyzstan (2.03 billion USD) and Uzbekistan (44million USD), and the second-largest investor in Tajikistan (72 million USD). 21 By 2013, China had invested
approximately 90 billion USD in Central Asia, 22 making Beijing one of the top providers of investment in theregion. The economic linkage between China and Central Asia gave the latter a critical role in the One Belt One
Road (yidaiyilu) initiative introduced in 2014.
3. Japan’s Strategic Interests and Foreign Policy in Central Asia
Hampered by location, Japan is not a traditional power in Central Asia, a category dominated by the likes ofChina and Russia. However, with the rising challenge of energy security in the new century, similar to other powers,
Japan began turning its eyes towards resource abundant or potentially energy rich areas such as Central Asia. One
may be surprised that as far back as the immediate aftermath of the Soviet Union’s dissolution, Japan took noticeof the power vacuum and resource potential in Central Asia and began engaging the region. In December 1991,
Japan recognized the independence of Kazakhstan and, in the following months, established formal diplomatic
relations with Kazakhstan (January 1992), Uzbekistan (January 1992), Kyrgyzstan (January 1992), Tajikistan

21

Xia Yue and Xiaoping Qian, “Zhongya wuguo touzi huanjing bijiao yanjiu: zhongguo de shijiao” (A Comparative
Study of the Investment Environment of the Five States of Central Asia), Yatai Jingji (Asia-Pacific Economy), No.2
(2015), available online at: http://www.chinathinktanks.org.cn/content/detail?id=2895509 (accessed August 30, 2015)
Figures reflect 2013 values.
22
Ibid.

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(February 1992) and Turkmenistan (April 1992). 23
In 1997, under considerations for geopolitics and energy security, former prime minister Hashimoto Ryutaro
proposed the strategy of Eurasian Diplomacy, also known as “Silk Road” Diplomacy. Japan’s strategic adjustment
is significant in two ways. First, in terms of geopolitics, by expanding its role in Central Asia, Japan seeks to increase
its global status and regional influence. Correspondingly, Tokyo’s established foreign policy guidelines seek toengage in dialogue with Central Asia and strengthen bilateral exchange with countries in the region, and to support
economic and resource development in Central Asia through Japan’s economic capability. 24 Second, Japan seeks
to gain influence in the development of energy resources in Central Asia through increased political and economic
exchange in the region. 25 In terms of strategic interests, international status and energy access dominate Tokyo’s
considerations towards Central Asia.
(1) International Status
While Japan’s economic status in the world does not frequently undergo contestations, the inability to deploy
troops and conduct military activities abroad undermines Japan’s political standing in the international community.
In other words, Japan falls short of achieving great power status or becoming a “normal” state because carrying out
military actions is constrained by the Japanese Constitution (Article 9). In such case, in order to become a fullpolitical power (or “normal” state), Japan could only adopt other courses, one of which is the acquisition of
permanent representation on the United Nations (UN) Security Council. Located outside East Asia —a region thatJapan continues to have troubles with in finding political support despite its proximity—Central Asia has proved to
be a potential source of support.
In August 2004, during her visits to Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Japanese Foreign
Minister Kawaguchi Yoriko proposed the Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue initiative. 26 In 2005, the first Central
Asia plus Japan Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held in Astana, Kazakhstan. The meeting produced a Joint
Statement that sets out the goals of promoting and deepening cooperation in the fields of economic and social
development, energy and environmental issues, cultural exchange and human resource development. 27 In terms ofinternational status, the Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue played a key role in generating an Action Plan that
promotes Japan’s desire of achieving a stronger influence in the international community. As Article 1.2 of the
Action Plan states:
Japan and the Central Asian countries emphasized that the reform of the United Nations isurgently needed…Japan and the Central Asian countries need to work together to reform the UN Security
Council which plays a major role in maintaining peace and security. The crux of the Security Council
reform is to increase the number of both permanent and non-permanent members. The Central Asian
countries expressed their expectation that Japan would play a more political role in the international
community and confirmed that they would unanimously support Japan’s becoming a permanent member. 28

It is clear that Japan aspires to become a greater political power through the support of Central Asian
23

Jiangyong Liu ed., Dangdai Riben Duiwai Guanxi (Foreign Relations of Contemporary Japan) (Beijing: World Affairs
Press, 2009), p.440.
24
Akio Kawato, “What is Japan up to in Central Asia?” in Christopher Len et al. eds., Japan’s Silk Road Diplomacy:
Paving the Road Ahead (Singapore: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, 2008), pp.17-18.
25
Christopher Len, “Understanding Japan’s Central Asian Engagement,” in Christopher Len et al. eds., Japan’s Silk Road
Diplomacy: Paving the Road Ahead (Singapore: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, 2008), pp.36-37.
26
Christopher Len, “Japan’s Central Asia Diplomacy: Motivations, Implications and Prospects for the Region,” The
China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Vol.3, No.3 (2005), p.142.
27
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, “Joint Statement ‘Central Asia + Japan’ Dialogue/Foreign Ministers’ Meeting –Relations between Japan and Central Asia as They Enter a New Era,”
http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/dialogue/joint0408.pdf (accessed August 24, 2015)
28
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, “‘Central Asia plus Japan’ Dialogue–Action Plan–,”http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/europe/dialogue/action0606.html (accessed August 24, 2015)

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countries. Another Foreign Ministers’ Meeting was held in 2010 before the Great East Japan Earthquake disrupted
further dialogue. The Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue was reinitiated in 2014 under the Shinzo Abe administration.
(2) Energy Resources and Investment
Coincidentally, compared with China’s high energy demand caused by economic development, the case ofJapan may not be any more optimistic. The fact that Japan is an island nation means that much of its energy demands
need to be fulfilled externally. As Candace Dunn and Mark Eshbaugh point out, by 2012, Japan was the second
largest net importer of fossil fuels in the world, trailing only China. 29 A resource-poor country, Japan imported asmuch as 90% of its oil from the Middle East, which establishes a vulnerability that bears on the country. With thesuspension of operation of all nuclear power plants following the Fukushima incident in 2011, Japan’s dependence
on fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas heightened. Currently, Japan is the third largest global consumer andimporter of oil behind the U.S. and China. 30
Hence, similar to China, Japan sees Central Asia as a potential source for energy diversion. Among generalefforts that support the development of oil and natural gas resources throughout the region, Tokyo’s efforts are
particularly focused in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In Kazakhstan, INPEX Corporation, Japan’s largest oil and gas
exploration company, acquired an interest in the Offshore North Caspian Sea Contract Area in Kazakhstan’s
territorial waters in 1998 and began development work in the Kashagan Oil Field after sources were confirmed in
2000. 31 The Kashagan Oil Field began production in 2013. On the other hand, along with Kazakhstan firm
Kazatomprom, Japanese companies Sumitomo Shoji and KEPCO (Kansai Electric Power Co., Inc.) are jointly
developing the Zapadny Munkuduk uranium deposit. 32 Kazakhstan is currently the world’s largest producer ofuranium. In Uzbekistan, in January 2015, Japan and Uzbekistan signed a large package of investment and loan
agreements and technical assistance projects worth 3.8 billion USD. 33 Japanese investment in Uzbekistan includes
infrastructure, telecommunication and oil and gas projects.
4. Scenarios for Sino-Japanese Competition in Central Asia
Despite the limitation of traditional thinking on Sino-Japanese competition in the locales of Asia Pacific andSoutheast Asia, it is nonetheless worth considering the possibilities for rivalry in Central Asia, a region that
continues to elevate in global status due to its strategic location and energy potential. While a brief survey of Japanand China’s respective interests in Central Asia may suggest the competition over energy as the main potential pointof conflict between the two powers, the paradox between Beijing and Tokyo may lay deeper, touching on powercompetitions on both the international and regional levels. In 2014, China’s initiation of the One Belt One Road
initiative once again captivated global attention on Central Asia while the strategic competition between China andJapan raged on in different parts of the world. The following considers three potential aspects of competition
between Japan and China in Central Asia.
(1) Institutional Competition
Despite early ventures into Central Asia in the aftermath of the Cold War, perhaps owing to geographical29

Candace Dunn and Mark Eshbaugh, “Japan is the second largest net importer of fossil fuels in the world,”
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=13711 (accessed September 4, 2015)
30
Ibid.
31
INPEX Corporation Annual Report 2015,
http://www.inpex.co.jp/english/ir/library/pdf/annual_report/inpex_annualreport2015_en-4.pdf (accessed September
4, 2015). The Kashagan Oil Field has a production potential of 450,000 barrels per day and 1.5 barrels over the next
decade. See: Bin Xiao and Xiaohui Zhang, “riben de nengyuan xiongxin: cong zhongya dao yasaibairan” (Japan’s
Energy Ambition: From Central Asia to Azerbaijan), http://oilobserver.com/case/article/76 (accessed August 31,
2015)
32
Roman Muzalevsky, “Japan Looks to Central Asia for Strategic Resources,”
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=40151&no_cache=1 (accessed September 4, 2015)
33
John C.K. Daly, “Japan’s Central Asia Strategy Emerges with Upcoming Visit,”
http://www.silkroadreporters.com/2015/08/11/japans-central-asia-strategy-emerges-with-upcoming-visit/ (accessed
September 4, 2015)164

Tony Tai-Ting LIU, An Analysis of Sino-Japanese Strategic Competition in Central Asia

distance (and instability in domestic politics since 2006), Japan’s influence in the region remains limited. The power
vacuum in Central Asia was not filled again until China’s rise in the new century. The most prominent evidence ofChina’s gaining influence in Central Asia was the establishment of the SCO in 2001. While a key feature of the
SCO is its objective to combat terrorism and ensure regional security and stability, over the years, the organization
has gradually evolved into a multilateral interface for discussions on economic and energy cooperation among China,
Russia and Central Asian states. With the U.S. occupied with its War on Terror in the Middle East, Chinese influence
in Central Asia expanded greatly.
In a sense, Japan’s initiation of the Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue in 2004 could be seen as a response by
Tokyo that seeks to counterbalance China’s growing regional influence. For Japan, a stronger China in Central Asia
not only has the potential to challenge Tokyo’s efforts to diversify its sources for energy, it could also reduce thesupport Japan needs in its quest to become a political power. Noting China’s adoption of a Go Out Policy, Japan
also needed a “go out policy” in order to garner support for its international status. Since 2004, five rounds of theCentral Asia plus Japan Dialogue have been held. Hosted in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, the Fifth Round of the Dialogue
was held in 2014 and was attended by foreign ministers from all member states for the first time in history. 34
While participation in the SCO or Central Asia plus Japan is not mutually exclusive and the former seems
to have developed more vibrantly compared with its Japanese counterpart, the Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue
nonetheless serves as a potential institution for challenging Chinese influence in the region. For example, in the
Joint Declaration signed at the 2014 Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue, all member states agreed on the importanceof peaceful resolution of conflicts based on international law and principles including non-intervention of territorialboundaries and the resignation of the use of force and threats in international relations. 35 The statement wasconsidered by some observers to be directed against Chinese belligerence in the South China Sea and the
Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. 36 On the other hand, the capture and killing of Japanese nationals Kenji Goto and Haruna
Yukawa by ISIS in 2015 encouraged Tokyo to step up counterterrorist cooperation with Central Asian states, anarea recognized to be a main function of the SCO. Through the United Nations Development Program (UNDP),
Japan plans to provide aid to Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan towards improved inspection facilities andequipment. 37 It remains to be observed whether security cooperation between Japan and Central Asia will continue
to expand and intensify the undercurrents in Sino-Japanese relations in Central Asia.
(2) Power Competition
In September 2013, while visiting Kazakhstan, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the concept of joint
establishment of a Silk Road Economic Belt by China and Central Asia. In the following month, while visiting
Southeast Asia, Xi Jinping further suggested the establishment of a Twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road by
China and ASEAN. Together, the two proposals form the concept of the One Belt One Road, a strategic initiativethat seeks to connect the Eurasian continent and promote economic cooperation and integration between China andcountries along the imagined route (see Figure 1). The One Belt One Road initiative captured international attention
at the 2014 Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit Meeting in Beijing, when Xi Jinping announced
the plan along with the establishment of the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).

34

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, “Fifth Foreign Ministers’ Meeting of ‘Central Asia Plus Japan’ Dialogue,”
http://www.mofa.go.jp/erp/ca_c/kg/page22e_000455.html#section1 (accessed August 24, 2015)
35“Fifth Foreign Ministers’ Meeting of ‘Central Asia Plus Japan’ Dialogue Joint Declaration,”
http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000045365.pdf (accessed September 4, 2015)36
See: Tong Qian, “Riben yu zhongya wuguo lianhe shengming qianzhi zhongguo” (Central Asian Countries and Japan
Jointly Declare to Tie Down China),
http://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/world/2014/07/140717_central_asia_plus_japan_dialogue (accessed August 31,
2015)
37“Japan to help Central Asia beef up border controls,” Nikkei Asian Review, April 6, 2015,
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/International-Relations/Japan-to-help-Central-Asia-beef-up-border-controls(accessed August 31, 2015)165

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Volume 8 ONLINE / March 2016

Figure 1: One Belt One Road Initiative

Source: Sander Denecker, “China’s One Belt One Road Strategy,”
http://insight.amcham-shanghai.org/chinas-one-belt-one-road-strategy/ (accessed September 17, 2015)

While the success of the One Belt One Road initiative remains to be watched, its geopolitical implications
do not go unnoticed. Xi Jinping’s proclamation of the ambitious plan revived the debate of whether China seeks aland power strategy that stands in contrast with maritime power strategies historically embraced by countries suchas Britain, the U.S. and Japan. Despite arguments by Chinese scholars that contend the One Belt One Road to be a
strategy that goes beyond the traditional concepts of land power and sea power, 38 various developments suggestthat Beijing seems to lean towards a land power strategy. In addition to the construction of gas and oil pipelines
leading from Central Asia to China, Beijing has made the establishment of an infrastructure network between all
sub-regions in Asia and between Asia, Europe and Africa a priority in its initiative. 39 Such an objective has led to
Beijing’s planning and construction of the “Eurasian Land Bridge” that aims to stretch from China’s coastal region
to the European continent, while the export of high-speed rail technology or “high-speed rail diplomacy” (gaotie
waijiao), is adopted as a way to establish the influence of China beyond its borders. 40 Compared with locations
such as the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean, where China’s efforts to gain influence are constantly underchallenge, pursuits on the continent seem to confront less friction, a condition that argues in favor of land power
aspirations.
China’s continental advancements towards the west stand in contrast with Japan’s traditional emphasis on
maritime strategy, a position that has been somewhat revived by the recent Shinzo Abe administration. Despite its
Silk Road Diplomacy, since 2012, Japan has made a series of strategic moves in the Asia Pacific that hint at thecountry’s sea power focus. For example, in response to China’s aggressive behavior in the South China Sea, Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe vowed Japan’s support for efforts by ASEAN member countries to ensure the security and freenavigation of the seas and skies. 41 Correspondingly, Japan provided three patrol vessels to Indonesia and ten patrol
vessels to the Philippines through grant aid cooperation. 42 Although Japan does not have any territorial grievances
38

See: Wu Zhifeng, “Yidaiyilu: chaoyue luquan haiquan de xinsiwei” (One Belt One Road: New Thinking that Goes
Beyond Land Power and Sea Power), http://scholarsupdate.hi2net.com/news.asp?NewsID=18037 ; Liu Jiangyong,“Diyuanzhengzhi sixiang dui zhongmeiri guanxi de yinxiang” (The Influences of Geopolitical Thinking on ChinaUS-Japan Relations), http://www.globalview.cn/html/strategy/info_4889.html (accessed August 31, 2015)
Liu Jiangyong suggests the emergence of a new concept that combines both the theory of land power and theory ofsea power which he terms “land-sea cooperation theory” (hailu hehelun).
39“Infrastructure Connectivity a Priority in Belt and Road Initiative,”
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2015-03/28/c_134105411.htm (accessed August 30, 2015)40
Regarding China’s use of railway technology as a diplomatic tactic, see: Tsai, op. cit., pp.161-170.
41
Shinzo Abe, “Military Transparency and Asian Security,”
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/shinzo-abe-calls-on-the-region-s-governments-to-make-their-defensebudgets-public (accessed September 1, 2015)
42
Ibid.

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Tony Tai-Ting LIU, An Analysis of Sino-Japanese Strategic Competition in Central Asia

in the South China Sea, concern over so-called “sea lines of communication” (SLOCs)—critical shipping lanes thecountry depends on for trade and energy imports—has led Tokyo to pronounce its interests in the region under the
Abe administration.
Beyond the South China Sea, Japan’s maritime focus can be observed in the Indian Ocean as well. In 2012,
then newly elected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe introduced the concept of “Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond,”a strategic vision based on a democratic alliance among Japan, the U.S., Australia and India. Abe clearly exposed
Japan’s emphasis on the sea in a passage:
The ongoing disputes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea mean that Japan’s top foreign
policy priority must be to expand the country’s strategic horizons. Japan is a mature maritime democracy,
and its choice of close partners should reflect that fact. I envisage a strategy whereby Australia, India,
Japan, and the U.S. state of Hawaii form a diamond to safeguard the maritime commons stretching fromthe Indian Ocean region to the western Pacific. 43
Under the new Abe administration, Japan stepped up maritime cooperation with India. In 2013, Japan andIndia commenced the first Maritime Affairs Dialogue in New Delhi and agreed on potential cooperation in areas
such as non-traditional security, transportation, ocean science and technology and maritime biosphere. 44 Following
the first Japan-India Maritime Exercise (JIMEX) carried out off the coast of Tokyo in 2011, a second exercise wascarried out in the Bay of Bengal adjacent to the Indian Ocean in 2013.
On the system level, geopolitical competition between sea power and land power, Japan and China,
respectively, is increasingly vivid when recent developments are also considered. As Tony Tai-Ting Liu and MingTe Hung observe, since 2012, Japan has pivoted towards China and seeks to contain its rising power by engaging
countries in the Asia Pacific such as Burma, India and Australia. 45 On the other hand, perhaps in response to Japan’s
pivot and Washington’s current rebalance to Asia, at the 2015 SCO summit held in Ufa, Russia not only strengthened
cooperation among China, Russia and Central Asia, but also hinted at the emergence of a continental bloc that may
serve as a counterweight to the Asia Pacific group under U.S. and Japanese leadership. The accession of India andPakistan to SCO membership at the Ufa meeting further expands the influence of the SCO. 46 In light of the above
developments, Central Asia may be a sub-region where larger power competitions in the world play out.
(3) Credit Competition
Due to Japan’s military constraints, economic means such as the provision of official development assistance(ODA) have long served as a foreign policy tool to accomplish national interests. Through the provision of aid todeveloping countries, Japan seeks to improve its international image and shape an international environment
beneficial for its development. In Central Asia, Japanese assistance consists of the three categories of loans, grants
and technical cooperation. 47 The tasks of personnel training and institutional establishment, construction of socialand economic infrastructure, and mitigation of existent social problems guide Japan’s delivery of ODA to Central
Asia. According to Japan’s 2013 ODA White Paper, in 2012, Japan provided 28.4 million USD to Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan combined. 48 Table 2 shows Japan’s disbursement of ODA in
43

Shinzo Abe, “Asia’s Democratic Security Diamond,”
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a-strategic-alliance-for-japan-and-india-by-shinzo-abe (accessed
September 1, 2015)
44
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, “daiyikkai ni-indo kaiyou nikansuru taiwa no kaisai” (The First Meeting of theJapan-India Maritime Affairs Dialogue), http://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/press/release/25/1/0128_02.html
45
Tony Tai-Ting Liu and Ming-te Hung, “Jianzhi zhongguo: riben dui yazhou de anquan zhanlue” (Pivot towards China:
Japan’s Renewed Security Strategy in Asia), Review of Global Politics, No.46 (2014), pp.139-152.
46
Lidia Kelly, Denis Pinchuk and Darya Korsunskaya, “India, Pakistan to join China, Russia in security group,”
http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/07/11/china-russia-india-pak-sco-idINKCN0PK20520150711 (accessed August 31,
2015)47
For a complete discussion of Japan’s ODA strategy in Central Asia, see: Timur Dadabaev, Japan in Central Asia:
Strategies, Initiatives and Neighboring Powers (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2016), Chapter 2.
48
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, ODA White Paper 2013 (Tokyo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2013), p.121.

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Central Asia in the period 2010-2013.
Table 2: Japan’s ODA Disbursements in Central Asia (2010-2013)(Unit: in millions USD)
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan

Year

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Tajikistan

2010

-1.82

23.16

43.42

-0.94

7.04

2011

-20.73

30.62

35.59

-1.47

-1.79

2012

-15.93

19.57

32.98

-2.21

-6.01

2013

-6.32

17.48

26.66

-1.68

30.11

Total

811.60553.65248.8637.82

857.70Source: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, “ODA by Region: Central Asia and the Caucuses,”
http://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/oda/page_000010.html (Accessed February 24, 2016)
Note: Negative figures indicate that outstanding loans remain after repayment by respective recipients.

For China, comparable figures for ODA in Central Asia remain difficult to gauge. In both the 2011 and the2014 ODA White Paper released by China’s State Council, besides general descriptions on the performance of aid,
the documents do not show the precise figures for the distribution of ODA in each region. 49 However, according toa study carried out by the RAND Corporation, of six regions (Latin America, Africa, Middle East, South Asia,
Central Asia and East Asia) surveyed, Central Asia received the least assistance in the past decade (2001-2011). 50
Although the SCO helped to initiate several agreements between China and Central Asian countries, most deals
were small, usually amounting to less than 100 million USD. 51
Nonetheless, with the announcement of the establishment of a Silk Road infrastructure fund consisting of
40 billion USD by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit in 2014, the potential amount of Chinese
credit in Central Asia may be greatly increased in the near future. In turn, such a development may directly challenge
Japan’s influence in the region. In terms of the disbursement of ODA, in 2012, Japan was the biggest provider ofdevelopment assistance in Kazakhstan, the second biggest provider in Uzbekistan (behind Germany) and the third
biggest provider in Tajikistan (behind Germany and the U.S.). 52 While China’s commitment to aid and investment
in Central Asia has the potential to challenge Japan’s ODA diplomacy in the region, with most of Beijing’s assistancein the past devoted to oil and natural gas, the threat of energy security may come to bear against Japan. 53 It remains
to be observed whether Japan would increase its provision of ODA to Central Asia in response to China’s Silk Road
infrastructure fund.
5. Conclusion
This article briefly surveyed the emerging possibilities for strategic competition between Japan and China
outside the Asia Pacific region. While many of the past competitions between the two powers were concentrated in
Asia, developments in Central Asia suggest that it may be worthy for observers of Sino-Japanese relations to lookbeyond the regional scope for factors that are likely to introduce new challenges and perhaps reinforce tensions
already existent in bilateral relations. As this article seeks to elaborate, from institutional establishments to different
49

See: The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China,“China’s Foreign Aid White Paper 2011,” http://www.scio.gov.cn/zfbps/wjbps/Document/1435354/1435354.htm ;“China’s Foreign Aid White Paper 2014,” http://www.scio.gov.cn/zfbps/wjbps/Document/1435360/1435360.htm(accessed August 30, 2015)
50
Charles Wolf Jr., Xiao Wang and Eric Warner, China’s Foreign Aid and Government-Sponsored Investment Activities:
Scale, Content, Destinations and Implications (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2013), pp.39-40.
51
Ibid.
52
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, “ODA by Region: Central Asia and the Caucuses,”
http://www.mofa.go.jp/policy/oda/page_000010.html (accessed August 31, 2015)53
On this point, see: Timur Dadabaev, “Chinese and Japanese Foreign Policies towards Central Asia from a Comparative
Perspective,” The Pacific Review, Vol.27, No.1 (2014), pp.123-145.

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Tony Tai-Ting LIU, An Analysis of Sino-Japanese Strategic Competition in Central Asia

strategic conceptions of Japan and China, to the amount of foreign aid or potential investment Japan and China
could bring to countries in the region, Central Asia contains the seeds for strategic competition in the near future.
In this respect, two aspects are particularly worth noting.
First, considering the difference in strategic outlook between continental and maritime powers, in terms ofJapan and China, an important question to address is whether both powers have the potential to mutually recognize
and acknowledge their respective spheres of influence. In theory at least, if both continental and maritime powers
keep to their power base, coastlines should serve as lines of demarcation or boundaries that keep the states awayfrom direct confrontations. However, as evidence in the South China Sea and the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands suggest,the claims by Japan and China overlap and induce tensions. Once other power coalitions such as the Japan-U.S.
alliance and cooperation between China and Russia are taken into account as well, the international systemincreasingly suggests an emerging division of competing power blocs defined by continental and maritime powers.
Therefore, in Central Asia, whether Japan and China can find compatible grounds for acknowledging each other’s
regional influences remains an important issue to be observed.
Second, besides power competitions, the stances and responses of Central Asian states are also criticalfactors that may affect Sino-Japanese relations. Regardless of tensions between Japan and China, the fact thatCentral Asian countries participate in both the SCO and the Central Asia plus Japan Dialogue hints at the possibilityof a balancing strategy at work. Yet with the expansion of the SCO and China’s push for the One Belt One Road
initiative, how long Central Asian countries can sustain their balance between Japan and China seems uncertain.
For Japan, reduced influence in Central Asia may not only challenge attempts to diversify the sources of its energy
supply, Japan’s global influence may also be rolled back and perhaps be limited within the confines of Asia. The
consequence of such scenario may be an even smaller Japan than before that risks both political and economic
irrelevancy in the international community. How Japan’s leadership responds could define the country’s
international status for years to come.

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