IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

21 December 2018
The 431st Forum on Research Work

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019
Concerns over a slowdown could shadow stable economic growth.
Energy demand will slightly rebound from this year’s decline
SUEHIRO Shigeru, H. Arimoto, Y. Yorita, N. Aizawa, C. Onda, T. Ohira, Y. Shibata, A. Yanagisawa and
K. ItoSummary of economic and energy outlook [Reference Scenario]
Macro economy and production activity | Growth will continue in FY2019 but will
decelerate slightly
In FY2018, the Japanese economy slows down from the previous fiscal year to a moderate growth rate of 0.9%.
Domestic demand is strong, but foreign demand does not contribute as in the past. In FY2019, the growthrate will be as much as the potential growth rate at 0.8%, reflecting a slowdown in private demand, while
public demand will support the growth, in part because of measures to raise the VAT. Industrial production
will increase at a much slower rate than in FY2017 at slightly less than 1% through FY2019. The trade surplus
shrinks to JPY300 billion in FY2018 due to rises in energy prices but will recover to JPY800 billion in FY2019.
As a result, the changes in the trade balance over the two years will be in line with changes in fossil fuel imports.

Energy supply and demand | Primary energy supply will increase slightly after adecrease in FY2018. CO2 will decrease for its sixth consecutive year, but just a little
Primary energy supply decreases for the first time in two years in FY2018 due to a slowdown from the earlier
higher economic growth and a milder winter compared to a record severe winter in FY2017 (-0.9%). In
particular, oil and natural gas fall sharply. In FY2019, primary energy supply will return to a slight increase dueto the expansion of basic materials production and a return to normal winter temperatures (+0.2%). The trend
from fossil fuels to nuclear and renewable energy continues but will not accelerate in FY2019.
CO2 emissions will be reduced to 1,069 Mt in FY2019, a reduction of -13.5% from FY2013. Although energy
conservation and low-carbonisation progress every year, the degree of low carbon is still inferior to that before
the Great East Japan Earthquake.

Energy sales | In FY2019, electricity and city gas sales will increase, whilst fuel oil
sales will decline for a seventh consecutive year
In FY2018, overall electricity sales decline by 1.2%. Lighting services decrease sharply due to factors such as
the impact of temperatures and the spread of residential solar PV power generation, while power services also
decline slightly reflecting a slower growth in production activities on the back of a slowdown in exports. In
FY2019, sales both for lighting services and for power services will increase, for an overall increase of 0.6%.
That for lighting services will increase by 0.7% due to advances in electrification of water heating and cooking,despite the continued penetration of energy-efficient equipment. Sales for power services will increase by
0.6% due to the gradual expansion of production activities.
Although the sales of city gas for general industrial use increase in FY2018, total sales decrease for the firsttime in three years due to the influence of the severe winter of the previous fiscal year and the mild winter ofthis fiscal year, as well as the decrease of city gas for electric utility use (-2.3%). In FY2019, sales for industrial
use will be driven by an increase for electric utility due to the operation of a new power plant, the continuous
demand development for general industrial use, and sales for residential use will also return to increase. The
overall figure will turn upward again, hitting a record high but only slightly higher than in FY2017 (+2.6%).

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 1

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Table 1 | Summary of Reference Scenario
Historical

Projection

Year-to-year changes

FY2010 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019

514.5 466.2
232.3 211.6
Oil (GL)
2
73.3
86.0
Natural gas (Mt of LNG equiv.)
184.7 190.1
Coal2 (Mt)
Nuclear (TWh)
288.2
9.4
3
111.2 149.0
Renewable electricity (TWh)FIT generation (TWh)
63.9
99.2
Self-sufficiency ratio
20.2% 7.4%
(926.6) (837.5)
Electricity sales4 (TWh)39.28 39.91
City gas sales5 (Billion m3)
Fuel oil sales (GL)
196.0 180.5
Energy-related CO2 emissions (Mt)
1,138 1,148(FY2013=100)
92.1
92.9
Crude oil, import, CIF ($/bbl)
84
49
LNG, import, CIF ($/MBtu)
11.3
8.7
Steam coal, import, CIF ($/t)
114
76
Coking coal, import, CIF ($/t)
175
88Real GDP (JPY2011 trillion)
493.0 517.4
Industrial production (CY2010=100)
99.4
97.5
Balance of trade (JPY trillion)
5.3-1.1
Fossil fuel imports (JPY trillion)
18.1
16.1
Exchange rate (JPY/$)
86.1 120.4
Cooling degree days
560
322
Heating degree days
1,077
875

Primary energy supply (Mtoe)1

EconomyPricesEnergy

2

463.0
205.1
88.1
188.0
17.3
150.8
108.7
8.3%
850.5
41.53
176.9
1,128
91.3
48
7.0
81
111
522.0
98.5
4.0
13.1
108.4
431
966

464.9 460.6 461.6 0.4% -0.9% 0.2%
202.6 194.7 193.5 -1.2% -3.9% -0.6%
85.6
82.3
82.0 -2.8% -3.9% -0.3%
192.2 191.6 191.9 2.2% -0.3% 0.1%
31.3
61.2
65.4 80.8% 95.5% 7.0%
163.8 175.7 183.7 8.6% 7.3% 4.5%
117.5 126.6 134.5 8.2% 7.7% 6.3%
9.5% 11.7% 12.3%
1.2p
2.2p
0.6p
863.2 853.1 858.4 1.5% -1.2% 0.6%
42.48 41.52 42.61 2.3% -2.3% 2.6%
174.7 167.7 166.7 -1.2% -4.0% -0.6%
1,112 1,073 1,069 -1.4% -3.5% -0.4%
90.0
86.8
86.5
..
..
..
57
70
67 19.6% 22.0% -3.8%
8.5
10.9
10.4 20.5% 28.6% -4.2%
102
117
103 26.4% 13.9% -11.9%
146
161
143 31.8% 10.0% -11.0%
531.7 536.2 540.4 1.9% 0.9% 0.8%
102.5 103.4 104.3 4.1% 0.8% 0.9%
2.4
0.3
0.8 -38.6% -88.7% 171%
16.2
19.0
18.6 23.6% 17.0% -2.3%
111.1 111.2 114.8 2.4% 0.2% 3.2%397
489
381 -7.7% 23.2% -22.2%
1,071
932 1,019 11.0% -13.0% 9.3%

Notes:
1. Mtoe = 1013 kcal
2. Conversion factors for oil: 9,126 kcal/L; Natural gas: 13,043 kcal/kg; Steam coal: 6,139 kcal/kg; Coking coal: 6,928 kcal/kg until FY2012.
2. Conversion factors for oil: 9,145 kcal/L; Natural gas: 13,016 kcal/kg; Steam coal: 6,203 kcal/kg; Coking coal: 6,877 kcal/kg since FY2013.
3. Including large hydro 30 MW or more. 4. Figures in parentheses are old statistical figures. 5. Conversion factor: 1 m 3 = 10,000 kcal

Fuel oil sales in FY2018 continues to decline for many use, including a decline in naphtha due to periodic
maintenance at petrochemical plants, a decline in the use of oil-fired power plants, and a decline in the
demand for kerosene heating (-4.0%). In FY2019, the sales of naphtha will increase due to fewer periodic
maintenance at ethylene plants. The sales of diesel oil will also increase in response to firm demand. The
increase, however, will be more than offset by a drop in the operation of oil-fired power plants and a drop in
gasoline sales, the result of continuous improvement in automobile fuel efficiency, marking the seventh
consecutive year of decline (-0.6%).

Renewable power generation | The FIT power generation capacity will reach 73 GW
at the end of FY2019
Regarding FIT power sources, more economical and reasonable promotion measures are pursued with theenforcement of the revised FIT Law in April 2017. The law is expected to be amended to further strengthen
the revocation of accreditation of non-operating projects, however, plants under construction are expected
to be operational, with a FIT capacity of 73 GW by the end of FY2019, including 43 GW for non-residential
solar PV. The amount of electricity generated is 134.5 TWh in FY2019, accounting for 13% of Japan’s total
electricity generation (excluding pumped hydro). On the other hand, in exchange for promoting the
introduction of the system, the burden on consumers is increasing. If all of the 86 GW of approved equipment
as of March 2018 were in operation, the cumulative cost to consumers, including operating and transition

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 2

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

equipment, would be JPY61 trillion in the purchase period, equivalent to boosting electricity rates by
JPY3,500/MWh – 15% for households and 21% for industries.

Topic | The effect of restarting nuclear power plants
We assessed the impact of nuclear power generation on 3Es – economy, energy security and environment. In
the High Case, in which there are five more operating plants than in the Reference Scenario, the amount offossil fuel imports would be reduced by JPY300 billion, the self-sufficiency rate would be improved by 2.1
points, and CO2 emissions would be reduced by 13 Mt. The degree of utilisation of nuclear would greatly
affect 3Es.
Figure 1 | Effect of the nuclear power generation [FY2019, compared with the Reference Scenario]
Real GDP

200 Best Mixed Case

1.2

50
0
-50

High Case35
Low Case

Fossil fuel imports spending
0.3

-0.4

-0.3
-1.0

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019

-20

-60

8

0

-52

-2.1

Unit cost of electricity

13

-13

2.1

4

-4

-40

10.5

12

-0.3

0

-1.0
-1.5

0.0

20

0.0
-0.5

0.3

0.4

Energy-related CO2 emissions

MtCO2

JPY trillion

0.5

0.8

-0.8

-35

1.1

JPY/kWh

100

169

JPY trillion

TWh

150

Self-sufficiency rate

%pointNuclear power generation

0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4

0.7
0.2

-0.2

| 3

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Overview
The Japanese economy in the third quarter of2018 posted the steepest contraction in aboutfour years due to natural disasters such as heavy
rains and an earthquake. Basically, however, it
maintained a moderate expansion. In themeantime, uncertainties such as the spread of
the so-called “me-first” foreign policy, thedeceleration of the Chinese economy andgepolitical risks in the Middle East have becomematters of growing concern.
International crude oil prices gained $20/bbl in
the first half of 2018 but lost more in two months
from October on such developments as a U.S.
announcement to waive an Iran oil embargo forsome countries. In response, OPEC and some
non-OPEC oil producing countries agreed on 7
December to cut their production by 1.2 Mb/dcompared with October for six months fromJanuary 2019.
In Japan, applications have been filed for
examinations of 25 nuclear power plants forconformity to regulatory standards. In
September 2018, the Tokai No. 2 Power Stationof the Japan Atomic Power Company became
the 15th nuclear power plant to clear theexaminations. However, the number of restarted
nuclear power plants has been limited to nine.
As for solar photovoltaics power generation, thegovernment and private sectors are considering
what to do after the 10-year period for electricutilities’ mandatory purchases of surplus
electricity from solar PV power generators
under the feed-in tariff scheme begins to expire
in 2019.

Key assumptions behind the Reference Scenario
Global economy
The global economy will grow, driven by therobust U.S. economy. However, growth will
decelerate. In the U.S. economy, domestic
demand will be robust on tax cuts, government
spending expansion and a favourable
employment and income environment.
However, growth will slow down on interest
rate hikes and trade disputes. In Europe,
economic growth will decelerate on slowing
exports, though being supported by brisk
private consumption amid improvements in theemployment and income environment. A focus
of attention is the fate of Brexit. The Chinese
economy will decelerate growth as the U.S.China trade war affects exports. Other Asian
economies will moderately decelerate growth
despite expanding infrastructure investment as
China’s economic deceleration affects exports.

in Iraninan exports in the second half. LNG willremain in oversupply. Oil import CIF prices forJapan are assumed to average $70/bbl in FY2018
and $67/bbl in FY2019. LNG import CIF prices
are assumed to average $10.9/MBtu in FY2018
and $10.4/MBtu in FY2019. Steam coal pricesrose on an increase in Chinese imports to meetgrowing electricity demand amid sluggish
hydro power generation in the first half of
FY2018 but will stabilise through FY2019. China
will stabilise coking coal imports on slower
economic growth. Steam coal import CIF prices
are assumed to average $117/t in FY2018 and$103/t in FY2019. Coking coal import CIF prices
are assumed to average $161/t in FY2018 and$143/t in FY2019 (IEEJ Hashizume “Oil Market
Outlook,” IEEJ Morikawa “Gas Market
Outlook” and IEEJ Sagawa “Coal Market
Outlook”).

Crude oil / LNG / coal import CIF prices

Exchange rate

The crude oil supply-demand balance will easeon growing production by some non-OPEC oil
producing countries in the first half of 2019
before supply slips below demand on a decline

We assume the dollar’s average exchange ratewith the yen to rise slightly from current levels
to JPY115/USD FY2019 on widening gaps
between Japanese and U.S. interest rates.

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IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Tax
We assume that the Japanese standard VAT rate
will be raised to 10% in October 2019, with alower rate introduced for some goods, and thatthe government will come up with measures tomitigate a rapid consumption increase before
and a fast consumption decline after the tax
hike.

Air temperature
Summer in FY2018 was warmer (+0.6°C) thanthe previous summer. According to the Japan
Meteorological Agency’s three-month weather
forecast, we assume that winter in FY2018 will
also be warmer than normal. This means that
FY2018 winter will be far warmer (+0.9°C) thanthe previous winter that was severely cold. Air
temperatures will return to normal levels later.
Summer in FY2019 will be far cooler (-0.9°C)
than in the previous summer. Winter will becolder (-0.4°C).

Nuclear power generation
We assume that nuclear power plants will berestarted depending on progress in regulatory
standards conformity examinations, with nojudicial action being taken to halt any plant.
However, no more will be restarted by the endof FY2018. We expect a total of nine plants to be
operational at the end of FY2018. In the year,
they will operate for an average nine months
and generate 61.2 TWh. A total of 11 plants will
be operational at the end of FY2019. In the year,
they will operate for an average eight months
and generate 65.4 TWh (accounting for 7% of
total power generation).

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 5

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

The macroeconomic situation
The Japanese economy will avoid any substantial contraction for the whole of FY2019
despite concerns about trade disputes and a value added tax hike, posting a growth rateof 0.8%, close to potential.
Private consumption will be robust in thefavourable employment and income
environment. Non-residential investment will
decelerate on worries about the future course of
the economy and a peaking-out in some areas,
despite robust investment in productivity
improvements such as automation to respond tolabour shortages, as well as in Olympic-related
and urban redevelopment projects. Private
demand will contribute 0.6 percentage points tothe total economic growth. Public demand willrise on brisk government investment andconsumption to finance post-disasterreconstruction, national resilience enhancement
and VAT hike countermeasures. Exports will
gradually slow down growth, reflecting anoverseas economic deceleration trend. Imports
will grow slightly faster than exports. External
demand will thus make a small negative
contribution to the total economic growth.

improvement. However, their value will still be
as high as JPY18.6 trillion.
Figure 2 | Changes in GDP and private
consumption
2%
GDP

1%
0%
-1%
-2%

Private consumption

-3%
3Q

4Q

2018

1Q

2Q

3Q

2019

4Q

1Q
2020

Notes: Seasonally adjusted. Compared with the previous
quarter.

Fossil fuel imports will decline from FY2018,
contributing much to a trade balance

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 6

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Table 2 | Macroeconomic indicators
Historical
Projection
Year-over-year
FY2010 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
Real GDP (JPY2011 trillion)
Private demand
Private consumption
Private residential investment
Private non-residential investment
Public demand
Government consumption
Public investment
Net exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Nominal GDP (JPY trillion)
Balance of trade (JPY trillion)
Exports
Imports
Fossil fuels
Oil
LNG
Current account (JPY trillion)
Domestic corporate goods price index (2015=100)
Consumer price index (2015=100)
GDP deflator (2011=100)
Unemployment rate (%)

493.0
369.0
286.6
13.9
67.6
122.6
98.1
24.7
1.3
74.7
73.4
499.4
5.3
67.8
62.5
18.1
12.3
3.5
18.3
97.6
96.4
101.3
5.0

517.4
392.6
295.8
15.2
81.2
130.9
105.2
25.7
-7.0
82.9
89.9
533.0
-1.1
74.1
75.2
16.1
9.6
4.5
18.0
99.1
100.0
103.0
3.3

522.0
395.3
295.8
16.2
80.7
131.7
106.0
25.8
-3.2
85.9
89.1
536.8
4.0
71.5
67.5
13.1
7.8
3.3
20.7
96.7
100.0
102.8
3.0

531.7
400.1
298.9
16.0
84.4
132.5
106.4
26.0
-1.4
91.4
92.8
547.4
2.4
79.2
76.8
16.2
9.6
4.1
21.4
99.3
100.7
103.0
2.7

536.2
404.4
300.6
15.3
87.6
132.8
107.1
25.7
-1.4
93.0
94.4
553.3
0.3
82.3
82.0
19.0
11.1
5.0
20.4
101.9
101.5
103.2
2.4

540.4 1.9% 0.9% 0.8%
407.5 (1.3%) (0.8%) (0.6%)
302.4 1.0% 0.6% 0.6%
15.5 -0.7% -4.4% 1.1%
89.1 4.6% 3.7% 1.7%
134.1 (0.1%) (0.1%) (0.2%)
107.9 0.4% 0.7% 0.7%
26.1 0.5% -1.1% 1.8%
-1.5 (0.4%) (0.0%) (-0.0%)
94.4 6.4% 1.8% 1.5%
95.9 4.1% 1.8% 1.6%
565.7 2.0% 1.1% 2.2%
0.8 -38.6% -88.7% 171%85.2 10.8% 3.9% 3.5%
84.4 13.7% 6.8% 2.9%
18.6 23.6% 17.0% -2.3%
11.0 22.1% 15.5% -0.7%
4.9 22.1% 23.5% -1.9%
21.7 3.2% -4.7% 6.4%
103.4 2.7% 2.6% 1.5%
103.1 0.7% 0.8% 1.6%
104.7 0.1% 0.2% 1.4%
2.5 [-0.3%] [-0.3%] [0.0%]

Notes: GDP components may not add up to the total GDP due to stock changes and minor data deviations.
( ) stands for contributions. [ ] stands for changes from the previous year.

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 7

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Production activities
Industrial production will expand on robust domestic demand through FY2019. However,growth will substantially decelerate from FY2017.
The industrial production index will score an
increase of 0.8% in FY2018 from the previous
year thanks to robust domestic demand
including demand related to the Olympic
Games Tokyo 2020 and a rise of 0.9% in FY2019
on continuous growth in domestic demand.
However, the FY2018 and FY2019 growth will be
far slower than 4.1% in FY2017.

Crude steel production will slightly decrease
due to natural disasters and equipment
troubles in FY2018 before rebounding on
robust demand in FY2019.
In FY2018, crude steel production will log aslight decrease of 0.3% from the previous year
on blast furnace troubles as well as heavy rains
in western Japan and a large earthquake in
Hokkaido, with exports dropping. In FY2019,crude steel production will rise by 0.2% to the
FY2017 level as exports turn upward despite apause in growth in domestic demand related to
the Tokyo Olympics.

Ethylene production will decrease on moreregular production equipment repairs in
FY2018 before its recovery is suppressed by
U.S. product exports made from shale gas in
FY2019.
Ethylene production in FY2018 will decrease by
5.5% from the previous year due to more regular
production equipment repairs. In FY2019,
production will rebound due to fewer
production equipment repairs. However, thegain will be limited to 2.5%, less than a half of
the FY2018 loss, because of competition
intensifying from U.S. ethylene products madefrom shales gas in the international market.

Annual cement production will remain
above 60 Mt in FY2018 and FY2019,supported by robust domestic demand.

offset by growth in domestic demand related to
the Tokyo Olympics and urban redevelopment.
In FY2019, production will level off as export
growth is offset by a private investment
slowdown. However, annual production willremain above 60 Mt for the third straight year,
for the first time since FY2008.

Paper and paperboard production will
decrease in FY2018 and FY2019 due tostructural factors such as a switch toelectronic media and a population fall.
While paperboard production will increase due
to export growth supported by increasing sales
via the internet in China, paper production will
decline on a switch to electronic media.
Paperboard and paper production will drop by
0.5% in FY2018 and by 0.8% in FY2019.
Although some companies are replacing plastics
with paper for environmental reasons, such
move’s effect on paper production is limited.

Automobile production will almost level off
in FY2018 as a rise in exports to emerging
countries is offset by a decline in domestic
shipments. Production will remainunchanged along with domestic andexternal demand in FY2019.
In FY2018, automobile production will level off
with an increase of a mere 0.1% from theprevious year as an increase in exports toemerging countries covers a drop in domestic
shipments. In FY2019, production will remain
almost unchanged with a gain of only 0.1% as aslower domestic shipment fall is coupled withflat exports amid a pause in growth inreplacement demand in the United States andsluggish sales in China.

Cement production in FY2018 will decrease by
0.2% as an export decline on typhoons is mostly

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 8

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Table 3 | Production activities
Historical
Projection
Year-over-year
FY2010 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019

Production

Crude steel (Mt)
Ethylene (Mt)
Cement (Mt)
Paper and paperboard (Mt)

Production indices

Automobiles (Million units)
Mining and manufacturing (2010=100)
Food
Chemicals
Non-ferrous metals
Machinery

Tertiary industry activity index (2010=100)

110.8
7.00
56.1
27.3
8.99
99.4
98.2
99.7
98.9
99.3
99.9

104.2
6.78
59.2
26.2
9.19
97.5
96.9
98.0
96.5
98.4
103.5

105.2
6.29
59.3
26.3
9.36
98.5
96.8
100.8
98.9
99.4
103.9

104.8
6.46
60.4
26.4
9.68
102.5
96.7
106.1
101.5
104.9
105.0

104.5
6.10
60.2
26.3
9.67
103.4
96.5
107.5
102.3
106.3
105.8

104.8 -0.3% -0.3% 0.2%
6.25 2.7% -5.5% 2.5%
60.2 1.8% -0.2% 0.0%
26.1 0.2% -0.5% -0.8%
9.69 3.5% -0.1% 0.1%
104.3 4.1% 0.8% 0.9%
95.6 -0.2% -0.2% -0.9%
109.8 5.3% 1.3% 2.2%
103.1 2.6% 0.8% 0.8%
107.7 5.6% 1.3% 1.3%
106.3 1.0% 0.8% 0.4%

Notes: Chemicals include chemical fibers.
Machinery includes general machinery, electrical machinery, information and telecommunications equipment, electronic parts and devices,precision machinery and metal products.

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IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Primary energy supply
Primary energy supply will decrease in FY2018 before increasing slightly in FY2019. As
nuclear power plants are restarted with renewable energy expanding, fossil fuelconsumption for power generation will decline. LNG imports will post the first ever threeyear consecutive decrease.
In FY2018, primary energy supply in Japan will
decrease by 0.9% from the previous year for the
first fall in two years due to slower economic
growth and a warmer winter after rapid growth
and a severely cold winter in the previous year.
In FY2019, supply will increase by 0.2% as a
general increase in industrial material
production is combined with a colder winter. As
growth in non-fossil fuel supply exceeds an
overall energy supply increase, Japan’s rate ofdependence on fossil fuels, which had shot up
after the Great East Japan Earthquake, will fallback to 88%, the level in FY1980 when the Act on
the Promotion of the Development andIntroduction of Alternative Energy was enacted.
Among primary energy supply in FY2019, oil as
the largest energy source will decline by 0.6%.
Oil-fired power plant operation will decrease as
nuclear power plants are restarted, with solar
PV expanding. Natural gas supply will drop by
0.3% for the first ever three-year consecutive fall.
Supply for LNG-fired power generation willrecord a faster decrease than an increase in thatfor city gas-fired power generation. LNG
imports will slip below 80 Mt, a yardstick after
the Great East Japan Earthquake. In contrast,
coal supply will change little.
While two nuclear power plants will berestarted in FY2019, nuclear energy supply
growth will be the lowest in five years due toregular check-ups on some restarted nuclear
power plants. New energies including solar PV,
wind and biomass will log an increase of

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019

1.5 Mtoe, the largest among energy categories.
The expansion of non-fossil fuel supply willallow Japan’s energy self-sufficiency rate to rise
to 12%.
Figure 3 | Changes in primary energy supply
and contribution [FY2019]
New energies, etc.
NuclearCoal

Hydro
Natural gas

Oil
-2

-1

0

1

2

Mtoe
Power generation

City gas

OthersPrimary supply

A decline in Japan’s energy-related CO2
emissions will be the slowest in six years due
partly to a smaller increase in nuclear. From
FY2013, a base year for cutting emissions under
the Paris Agreement, FY2019 emissions will post
a 13.5% decrease. CO2 emissions per primaryenergy consumption will fall for the sixth
straight year, though still being 5% higher than
before the Great East Japan Earthquake. Energy
consumption reduction and low-carbonisation
are expected to make balanced contributions to
cutting CO2 emissions.

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IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Table 4 | Primary energy supply
Historical
Projection
Year-over-year
FY2010 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
Primary energy supply (Mtoe)
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
LNG imports (Mt)
Hydro
Nuclear
New energy, etc.
Self-sufficiency rate
Energy intensity (FY2011=100)
Energy-related CO2 emissions (MtCO2)(FY2013=100)

514.5
119.1
212.0
95.7
70.6
17.7
60.7
9.3
20.2%
105.1
1,138
92.1

466.2
123.7
193.5
111.9
83.6
18.1
2.0
16.9
7.4%
90.8
1,148
92.9

463.0
121.9
187.6
114.7
84.7
16.8
3.7
18.3
8.3%
89.4
1,128
91.3

464.9 460.6 461.6 0.4% -0.9%
123.7 123.3 123.5 1.5% -0.3%
185.3 178.1 177.0 -1.2% -3.9%
111.4 107.1 106.8 -2.8% -3.9%
83.9
79.9
79.7 -1.0% -4.7%
17.8
18.1
18.1 5.4% 1.8%
6.8
12.7
13.6 82.2% 86.2%
19.9
21.2
22.8 8.7% 6.7%
9.5% 11.7% 12.3%
1.2p
2.2p
88.1
86.5
86.1 -1.4% -1.8%
1,112 1,073 1,069 -1.4% -3.5%
90.0
86.8
86.5
..
..

0.2%
0.1%
-0.6%
-0.3%
-0.2%
0.0%
6.8%
7.3%
0.6p
-0.6%
-0.4%
..

Notes: New energy includes solar photovoltaics, wind, biomass, solar heat, and geothermal, etc.
Self-sufficiency rate is based on IEA standard.

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 11

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Electricity sales and power generation mix (electric utility use)
Residential electricity sales will fluctuate on temperature changes while industrial sales willremain steady. Oil-fired power generation capacity totalling more than 13 GW will be idled
or retired, bringing about a plunge in oil-fired power generation.
In FY2018, electricity sales will decrease by 1.2%
from the previous year due partly totemperature changes. Sales to lighting service
users will drop by 3.2% due to a consumption
fall after a severely cold winter in the previous
year and the diffusion of residential solar PV
power generation, despite an increase in airconditioning demand in the warmer summer.
Sales to power service users will decline by 0.2%
as machinery production growth slackens on anexport slowdown.
In FY2019, electricity sales will increase by 0.6%
as sales to both lighting and power service users
expand. Sales to lighting service users will
expand by 0.7% due to temperature changes aswell as progress in the electrification of heating
and cooking, despite the diffusion of energysaving products such as light-emitting diodelamps and solar PV panels. While the period for
utilities’ purchase of electricity from renewableenergy under the feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme will
begin to expire for some residential customers,
the expiration’s effect on electricity sales tolighting service users will still be limited.
Electricity sales to power service users will
increase by 0.6% in line with a moderateincrease in industrial production, despite areactionary fall in air-conditioning demand,
hitting the highest level since the full electricity
retail deregulation in April 2016.

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019

Because of the electricity retail deregulation,
power producer and supplier companies’ shareof total electricity sales rose from 5.2% in April
2016 to 14.2% in September 2018. Such sharerose beyond 10% to 12.0% for lighting service
users and increased to 21.8% for high voltage
users (6.7% for extra-high voltage users).
In FY2018, nuclear energy’s share of total power
generation and purchases will double from theprevious year to 6% due to progress in therestart of nuclear power plants. Backed by the
FIT scheme, the share for renewables, etc.
(excluding hydro) will rise steadily to 9% (up 1.0
percentage points from the previous year).
Fossil fuels’ share will decline by 4.5 points
including 3.1 points for LNG. Oil-fired power
generation will decline as oil-fired power plants
totalling more than 13 GW are subjected toidling or retirement.
In FY2019, nuclear’s share will rise only by 0.4
points to 7% despite the restart of two nuclear
power plants as some restarted plants are
subjected to regular check-ups. The share forrenewables, etc. (excluding hydro) will increaseby 0.8 points to 10%. The combined share forhydro, nuclear and renewables, etc. (excludinghydro), known as zero-emission power sources,
will increase above 25% for the first time since
the Great East Japan Earthquake. LNG’s sharewill fall from the present level to 40% for FY2018
and FY2019.

| 12

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Table 5 | Electricity sales and power generation and purchases mix (electric utility use)
Historical
Projection
Year-over-year/changes
FY2010 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019(926.6) (837.5)
Lighting service
304.2 266.9
Power sercice(622.4) (570.7)
Extra-high voltage(246.1) (229.3)
High voltage(330.3) (303.7)
Low voltage(45.9) (37.7)
Electricity generated and purchased (TWh) (1,028) (920.1)
Hydro(9%) (10%)
Fossil fuels(62%) (85%)
Coal(25%) (31%)
LNG(29%) (46%)
Oil, etc.
(8%)(8%)
Nuclear(29%) (1%)
Renewables (excluding hydro), etc.
(1%) (5%)

Electricity sales (TWh)

850.5
272.9
577.6
231.5
308.3
37.8
960.0
9%
83%
29%
46%
8%
2%
7%

863.2
281.3
581.9
233.8
309.6
38.4
971.9
9%
80%
29%
44%
7%
3%
8%

853.1
272.4
580.8
235.7
307.9
37.2
959.9
10%
75%
30%
40%
5%
6%
9%

858.4
274.3
584.1
238.3
308.6
37.3
965.4
9%
74%
30%
40%
5%
7%
10%

1.5%
3.1%
0.7%
1.0%
0.4%
1.6%
1.2%
+0.5p
-3.0p
+0.1p
-2.1p
-1.0p
+1.4p
+1.1p

-1.2% 0.6%
-3.2% 0.7%
-0.2% 0.6%
0.8% 1.1%-0.6% 0.2%
-3.1% 0.3%
-1.2% 0.6%
+0.4p -0.0p-4.5p -1.2p+0.4p +0.1p-3.1p -0.5p-1.8p -0.7p+3.1p +0.4p+1.0p +0.8p

Notes: Figures in brackets are based on old statistical definitions, and discontinuous with other values.
"Electricity sales" is for electricity utility use, and does not include own use and specified supply.
"Electricity generated and purchased" is only for general electric utilities in FY2010, and its figures since FY2016 are estimated values.
Hydro includes pumped, and LNG includes city gas.

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 13

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

City gas sales (gas utilities)
City gas sales in FY2018 will decrease mainly for the residential sector and power utilities.
In FY2019, sales will slightly increase to a record high, driven by those for industrial use.
The residential sector will be primarily responsible for the drop in FY2018 and the rise in
FY2019.

Residential sales in FY2018 will post a
substantial decline of 7.1% due to a warmer
winter after a severely cold winter in theprevious year. In FY2019, residential sales willgrow by 4.4% on greater water- and spaceheating demand due to a colder winter and acooler summer, although energy-saving
equipment including highly efficient water
heaters will diffuse further.
Business sales (commercial and other sales) will
decrease (-1.9% for commercial sales and -0.6%
for others) on the continued spread of energyefficient equipment and a warmer winter,
despite greater space-cooling demand in a
warmer summer. In FY2019, greater winterspace- and water-heating demand, continuous
fuel switching to city gas and new demand
exploration efforts for gas heat pumps and otherproducts will decelerate a decline in commercial
sales to 0.5% and provide a 0.9% increase inother sales, although energy-efficient equipment
will diffuse further.
Industrial sales in FY2018 will turn down for the
first time in five years with a 0.7% loss on adecline in sales for power generation, althoughthose for general industrial use will expand on a
production recovery, fuel switching for

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019

industrial furnaces and boilers, and new
demand exploration efforts. In FY2019, they willturn up with a 2.8% gain on continuous demand
exploration for general industrial use as well asa sharp rise in sales for electric utilities on theplanned launch of the Moka power station’s
Unit 1 (with capacity at 620 MW) in the second
half of the year.
Under the full deregulation of city gas retailsales, new gas suppliers’ share of city gas salesrose from 8.2% in April 2017 to 13.4% in August
2018. Such share exceeded 15% for industrial
sales and is continuing to rise for residential
sales.
Until FY2016, industrial sales had been mainly
responsible for changes in city gas sales. Due tothe deceleration of industrial sales growth andsteep winter temperature changes, however,residential sales were mainly responsible forchanges in FY2017 and FY2018. In FY2019, sales
for electric utilities will make the greatest
contribution to the overall city gas sales growth.
However, residential sales’ contribution will bealmost similar.
Figure 4 | Changes in city gas sales
2

Billion m3

City gas sales for general industrial use in
FY2018 will increase on moderate expansion in
production and economic activities and fuelswitching for industrial furnaces and boilers.
Due to the impact of a severely cold winder inthe previous year and a fall in sales for electricutilities, however, overall city gas sales will turndown for the first time in three years, with a
2.3% decline. In FY2019, city gas sales will
expand by 2.6% to a record 42.6 billion m3 as arise in sales for electric utilities is coupled withan increase in those for industrial use amid
production expansion and greater water- andspace-heating demand in a colder winter.

1

0

-1
FY2012 FY2014

FY2016 FY2018

Residential

Commercial

Industry

Others

Total

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IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Table 6 | City gas sales (gas utilities)
Historical
Projection
Year-over-year
FY2010 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
Total (Billion m3)
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Manufacturing
Electric utilities
Others39.28 39.91
9.79
9.24
4.75
4.26
21.61 23.01(20.18) (20.16)(1.43) (2.85)
3.13
3.41

41.53
9.41
4.32
24.20
19.30
4.90
3.61

42.48
9.88
4.37
24.52
19.97
4.55
3.71

41.52
9.18
4.29
24.36
20.19
4.17
3.69

42.61
9.59
4.27
25.04
20.43
4.60
3.72

2.3%
5.0%
1.2%
1.3%
3.5%
-7.1%
2.8%

-2.3% 2.6%
-7.1% 4.4%
-1.9% -0.5%-0.7% 2.8%
1.1% 1.2%-8.4% 10.4%-0.6% 0.9%

Notes: Converted at 1 m3 = 41.8605 MJ (10,000 kcal). Figures in brackets are earlier statistical definitions.

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 15

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Fuel oil / LPG sales and crude oil throughput
Fuel oil sales in FY2019 will decline for the seventh straight year. Excluding diesel oil inrobust demand, fuel oil sales for various applications will follow a downtrend. Heavy fueloil sales will decline to 40% of the level before the Great East Japan Earthquake. Crude oil
throughput will decline by 30% from 20 years ago.
Fuel oil sales in FY2018 will decrease by 4.0%
from the previous year for the largest decline infour years due mainly to a drop in oil-fired
power generation, vehicle fuel efficiency
improvements, regular check-ups on
petrochemical plants and less heating demandin a warmer winter. In FY2019, fuel oil sales will
fall by 0.6% for the seventh straight annual
decline as a drop in heavy fuel oil and gasoline
sales outpaces growth in sales of naphtha
subject to less production equipment check-ups
and diesel oil in firm demand.
Gasoline sales will continue a downtrend on
growth in hybrid, mini and other fuel-efficient
vehicles. They will decrease by 1.2% in FY2018
from the previous year despite a severely hotsummer. In FY2019, gasoline sales will decline
by 1.9% for the fourth straight year of fall to justabove 50 billion litres, down about 20% from thepeak of 61.48 GL in 2004.
Naphtha sales will decrease by 4.6% in FY2018
due to an increase in regular ethylene plant
repairs. In FY2019, they will rise back as regularethylene plant repairs decrease. However, they
will fall short of recovering the FY2017 level,with growth limited to 3.0%.
Kerosene sales in FY2018 will decrease by 11.6%
as heating demand in a warmer-than-normal
winter declines substantially from a colder-thannormal winter in the previous year. In FY2019
when air temperatures will be normal, kerosene
sales will continue a downtrend with a 0.9%
drop on energy switching from kerosene to city
gas or electricity.

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019

Diesel oil sales had followed a downtrend for along time after a peak in FY1996 and haverecently turned up on rising demand for freighttransportation on growing sales via the internet
and for bus transportation for increasing foreign
tourists. They will rise by 0.3% in FY2018 and by
0.9% in FY2019, posting a three-year consecutive
increase for the first time in about 20 years.
Heavy fuel oil A sales will drop by 1.8% in
FY2018 on price hikes and fuel switching to city
gas in industry and commercial sectors. In
FY2019, they will decrease by 3.9% on further
progress in fuel switching.
Heavy fuel oil B / C sales for industrial use will
decrease due to progress in fuel switching andenergy conservation. Those for power
generation will substantially decline on the
shutdown or retirement of oil-fired power
plants. Total heavy fuel oil B / C sales willplunge by 23.7% in FY2018 and by 13.5% in
FY2019, posting a double-digit decline for theseventh straight year and sinking to 40% of the
FY2010 level before Japan’s energy situation
turned around due to the Great East Japan
Earthquake.
LPG sales will decrease by 3.3% in FY2018 asresidential demand plunges on temperaturechanges. In FY2019, they will decline by 1.4%
due to energy switching to electricity or city gas
in buildings and industry sectors.
Crude oil throughput will decrease by 4.6% in
FY2018 and by 1.6% in FY2019 on a fall in fueloil sales, posting a three-year consecutive
decline. From a peak of 249.93 GL in FY1997, it
will log a 30% plunge.

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IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Table 7 | Fuel oil / LPG sales and crude oil throughput
Historical
Projection
Year-over-year
FY2010 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019
Fuel oil sales (GL)
Gasoline
NaphthaJet fuel
Kerosene
Diesel oil
Heavy fuel oil A
Heavy fuel oils B and C
For electric utilities
For other users
LPG sales (Mt)
Crude oil throughput (GL)

196.0
58.2
46.7
5.2
20.4
32.9
15.4
17.3
7.7
9.7
16.5
208.9

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019

180.5
53.1
46.2
5.5
15.9
33.6
11.9
14.2
8.2
6.1
14.7
189.0

176.9
52.5
44.8
5.3
16.3
33.3
12.0
12.8
7.9
4.8
14.4
190.6

174.7
51.8
45.1
5.0
16.6
33.8
11.5
10.8
6.0
4.8
14.8
184.2

167.7
51.2
43.0
5.3
14.7
33.9
11.3
8.3
4.1
4.2
14.3
175.7

166.7 -1.2% -4.0% -0.6%
50.3 -1.3% -1.2% -1.9%
44.3 0.7% -4.6% 3.0%
5.3 -5.2% 5.5% 0.0%
14.6 2.4% -11.6% -0.9%
34.2 1.5% 0.3% 0.9%
10.9 -4.0% -1.8% -3.9%
7.2 -15.1% -23.7% -13.5%
3.4 -23.8% -31.7% -16.6%
3.7 -0.9% -13.6% -10.3%
14.1 2.9% -3.3% -1.4%
172.9 -3.3% -4.6% -1.6%| 17

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Renewable energy-based power generation (FIT power source)
Renewable energy-based power generation capacity will reach 73 GW. However, someapproved non-residential solar PV projects were cancelled, contributing to suppressing an
increase in the burden on consumers.
Renewable energy-based power generation
capacity approved under the FIT scheme
reached 105 GW in March 2017 as applications
for such approval increased sharply just before a
FIT price cut in April 2017. As a deadline was set
for making approved capacity operational under
the revised FIT Act, however, some approved
capacity including non-residential solar PV
facilities (such as mega-solar plants) was
cancelled, leading the approved capacity to fallto 86 GW in March 2018.
If all the approved capacity totalling 86 GW at
the end of March 2018, including alreadyoperational and transferred facilities1, isoperational, the cumulative burden on
consumers will reach an estimated
JPY61 trillion2. (The approved capacity includes
70.2 GW for solar PV, 6.5 GW for wind and
8.4 GW for biomass.) The estimated burden
amounts to an electricity rate hike of
JPY3,500/MWh, or 15% for residential users and
21% for industrial users. However, the estimatedburden represents a substantial fall from
JPY77 trillion for the peak approved capacity of
105 GW, indicating that the revised FIT Act canbe assessed as making some achievement. The
estimated burden may be lowered to
JPY49 trillion, if about 6 GW in approved
biomass capacity expected to be cancelled due tobarriers to long-term stable fuel supply is

1Transferred facilities are those that were installed
before the introduction of the FIT scheme and later
subjected to the scheme.
2 The remaining FIT periods for transferred facilities
are taken into consideration. The avoidable cost has

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019

excluded. As the government considers revising
the FIT Act again to enhance the cancellation of
approved capacity that is yet to become
operational, the burden on consumers will be
suppressed further.
While no substantial growth can be expected inapproved renewables power generation
capacity, approved capacity now underconstruction is expected to become operational.
While local problems still exist with theconnection of renewables power generators to
the electric grid, initiatives to mitigate these
problems have been implemented graduallyfrom the current fiscal year. Large barriers to theoperation of renewables power generators may
thus be avoided. Installed renewables power
generation capacity will reach 73.2 GW at theend of FY2019. Particularly, installed nonresidential solar PV capacity will expand to
42.8 GW at the end of FY2019, accounting for
more than half the total. As about five years are
required for launching wind power generation
after approval, installed wind generation
capacity will be limited to 4.4 GW at the end of
FY2019. Renewable energy-based power
generation in FY2019 will total 134.5 TWh(including 56.6 TWh for solar PV, 39.1 TWh forsmall and medium-sized hydro, 27.8 TWh forbiomass and 7.7 TWh for wind), accounting for
13% of Japan’s total power generation.

been estimated by the IEEJ, based on various
documents. The capacity factor is assumed at 20% for
wind, 12% for solar PV, 70% for geothermal, 45% forhydro and 70% for biomass.

| 18

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Figure 5 | Cumulative burden of FIT scheme over Figure 6 | Installed FIT power generation capacity
purchasing period (capacity approved or in(based on operation)
operation at the end of March 2018)
40

80
60

GW

30

JPY trillion

Approved

48.7

55.7

40 Solar PV(non-residence)
20

20

61.8

67.9

73.2

38.8

42.8

9.7
3.7
3.5

10.4
4.1
4.0

11.0
4.5
4.4

2017

2018

2019

34.4

0
Estimated
10
cancellation
In operation

2015

At the end of FY

0Solar PV Biomass(non-residential)

2016

Wind Solar PV Others(residential)

Wind

Biomass

Solar PV (residence)

Solar PV
(non-residence)

Note: Purchasing period is is 10 years for solar PV (residential), 15
years for geothermal and 20 years for others.

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 19

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Impact of the pace of nuclear power plant restart
Nuclear greatly contributing to the 3Es
This chapter assesses the impact on the so-called
3Es (energy security, environmental friendlinessand economic efficiency) of differing paces forrestarting nuclear power plants.
In addition to the Reference Scenario in which
the number of restarted nuclear power plants
will increase from nine at present to 11 by theend of FY2019, we have developed the “HighCase” in which five more will have been
restarted by FY2019-end and the “Low Case” inwhich five fewer will have been restarted then 3,
for sensitivity analysis. For the theoretical “Best
Mixed Case,” we have referred to the target
power generation mix for 2030 in the Long-term
Energy Supply and Demand Outlook by the
Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry,
setting the power generation mix share at 21%
for nuclear, 23% for renewable energy and 56%
for fossil fuels for FY2019.

Nuclear’s contributions to the 3Es
Regarding economic efficiency, the fossil fuelimport value in the High Case is JPY0.3 trillion

3

Each of the five nuclear plants is assumed to havecapacity at 1 GW and operate at 80% of its capacity.
4 Japan’s target calls for cutting GHG emissions in
FY2030 by 26% and energy-related CO2 emissions by

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019

less than in the Reference Scenario and the value
in the Best Mixed Case is JPY1 trillion yen less.
The unit electricity cost in the High Case is
JPY200/MWh less but the cost in the Best Mixed
Case is JPY700/MWh more. This is because the
FIT cost for the Best Mixed Case is more while
the unit electricity cost is less. Real GDP in theHigh Case is JPY0.3 trillion more than in the
Reference Scenario due to the lower fossil fuelimport value. Real GDP in the Best Mixed Caseis JPY1.1 trillion more than in the Reference
Scenario, and the energy self-sufficiency rate
indicating energy security is 2.1 percentage
points higher in the High Case and 10.5 points
higher in the Best Mixed Case.
CO2 emissions indicating environmental
friendliness are 13 Mt less in the High Case and52 Mt less in the Best Mixed Case. From FY2013
or the base year for Japan’s emission reduction
target4 for the Paris Agreement, emissions in theHigh Case fall by 14.6% and those in the Best
Mixed Case decline by 17.7%.

25% from FY2013 by mobilising the low-carbonisationof power generation discussed here as well as energy
efficiency improvements and the low-carbonisation of
final energy consumption.

| 20

IEEJ © December 2018. All rights reserved.

Nuclearassumptions

Table 8 | Effects of differing nuclear power generation [FY2019]

Restarted nuclear reactors
Power generation (TWh)Share in generation and purchases

Electricity unit cost1 (JPY/kWh)
燃料費
Fuel
cost
Economy

FIT買取費用
FIT
purchasing cost
Total fossil fuel imports (JPY trillion)

石油
Oil
LNG
Trade balances (JPY trillion)
Real GDP (JPY2011 trillion)

Low Reference
Case Scenario

High
Case

Best
Mixed
Case

Changes from Reference
Low

High

Best
Mixed

6
30.4
3%
6.7
4.8
2.0
18.9
11.0
5.2
0.5
540.1

11
65.4
6%
6.5
4.6
2.0
18.6
11.0
4.9
0.8
540.4

16
100.4
9%
6.3
4.3
2.0
18.3
10.9
4.7
1.0
540.8

..
234.5
21%
7.2
3.9
3.3
17.6
10.8
4.1
1.7
541.5

-5
-35.0
-3p
+0.2
+0.2
0.0
+0.3
+0.1
+0.2
-0.3
-0.3

+5
+35.0
+3p
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
-0.3
-0.0
-0.2
+0.3
+0.3

..
+169.0
+15p
+0.7
-0.7
+1.4
-1.0
-0.2
-0.8
+0.9
+1.1

194.6
85.8
10.2%
1,082
-12.4%

193.5
82.0
12.3%
1,069
-13.5%

192.6
78.1
14.4%
1,056
-14.6%

190.3
68.7
22.9%
1,017
-17.7%

+1.1
+3.8
-2.1p
+13
..

-0.9
-3.9
+2.1p
-13
..

-3.3
-13.3
+10.5p-52..

Energy andenvironment

Primary energy supply
Oil (GL)
Natural gas (Mt of LNG eq.)
Self-sufficiency rate
Energy-related CO2 (Mt)
Changes from FY2013

1. Sum of fuel cost, FIT purchasing cost and grid stabilising cost divided by total power generation.

Economic and Energy Outlook of Japan for FY2019| 21
Contact :report@tky.ieej.or.jp

FY2018 (低位