IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 48/2022
March 24, 2023, Friday

Released every Friday

Publisher: Oil Information Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan■ Overview

Inui Bldg. Kachidoki, 10th Floor, 13-1, Kachidoki 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo, 104-8581 Japan
https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/weekly_oil/index.php

The key WTI (West Texas Intermediate) crude oil futures contract on NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) in the March 2 March 8 week moved within a range of $76.66 per barrel and $80.46/bbl.
On March 9, the key contract turned down for the third straight trading day due to strengthened concerns about recession caused by
the expectations for a continuation of interest rate rise by the U.S. FRB (Federal Reserve Board). The bear trend in the U.S. stock market wasalso one of the factors for oil price decline. A strike against pension reform in France had an influence on the oil industry, which brought about
concerns about oil supply. The April contract closed at $75.72/bbl down $0.94/bbl from the previous trading day.
On March 10, the key contract rebounded for the first time in four trading days due to receding concerns about a continuation ofinterest rate rise by the U.S. FRB. The U.S. Employment Statistics was less than the market expectation. Furthermore, it was announced that
Saudi Arabia and Iran had agreed to normalization of diplomatic relations between the two countries through China’s mediation on this day.
This was one of the factors for détente in the Gulf region. However, it didn’t affect the market so much. The April contract closed at $76.68/bbl
up $0.96/bbl from the previous trading day.
On March 13, the key contract turned down due to a investors’ risk-aversion attitude caused by the bankruptcy of the U.S. Silicon
Valley Bank. However, some of the market players bought crude oil futures actively due to a sense of undervalued crude oil futures pricecaused by the depreciation of the U.S. dollar in the foreign exchange market and by the expectations for revision of interest rate rise by the U.S.
FRB. The April contract closed at $74.80/bbl down $1.88/bbl from the previous trading day.
On March 14, the key contract turned down further due to investors’ strengthened risk-aversion attitude caused by the chain reaction
bankruptcy of the U.S. banks. The OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) Monthly Report announced on this day for the
first time since December 9 of last year, made an upward revision on the projection of China’s oil demand for 2023, made a downward revisionon the projection of the U.S. and Europe’s oil demand for 2023, and maintained the previous projection on the world total oil demand for 2023.
The April contract closed at $71.33/bbl down $3.47/bbl from the previous trading day.
On March 15, the key contract turned down further due to strengthened concerns about the U.S. financial system caused by anxiety
over the management of Credit Suisse after bankruptcy of the two U.S. Bank, falling below the milestone of $70/bbl, hitting a record low for the
first time in one year and three months since December 2021. Moreover, the U.S. EIA (Energy Information Administration) announced that the
U.S. domestic inventory for crude oil the last weekend increased from the previous week more than the market expectation. In addition, the IEA(International Energy Agency) Monthly Report announced on this day made an upward revision of the projection on the world oil demand for2023, which had only a limited impact on the market. The April contract closed at $67.61/bbl down $3.72/bbl from the previous trading day.
The Asian benchmark crude oil of Dubai for May delivery on the Tokyo market ranged from $81.80/bbl to $84.80/bbl on March 2 –March 8 week. It closed at $81.60/bbl on March 9, at $80.10/bbl on March 10, at $82.10/bbl on March 13, at $79.00/bbl on March 14, at$77.50/bbl on March 15.
On the foreign exchange market in the March 2 - March 8 week, the dollar moved within a range of 135.92 yen and 137.35 yen. Itchanged hands at 137.10 yen in late trading on March 9, at 136.01 yen on March 10, at 134.34 yen on March 13, at 133.21 yen on March 14, at
134.62 yen on March 15.
Japan’s average retail price on March 13 leveled off from a week earlier for gasoline and diesel oil and decreased by 2 yen/l forkerosene on an 18-liter tank basis. The gasoline price leveled off for the fourth straight week. Diesel oil price stopped increasing for the firsttime in two weeks. Kerosene price decreased for the first time in two weeks. The national average gasoline price was 167.4 yen/l and mitigation
measures against the extreme change in fuel oil were invoked again. The subsidy for the next week was 17.1 yen/l.

($/b)
From
Crude oilThis week

a weekearlier

Crude oil runs
Supply/ Topper capacity
Demand utilization rate

Crude oil inventories
Middle Eastern crude
oil (TOCOM)WTI crude oil(NYMEX)
Crude oil import CIF
price
Prices①Crude oil import
CIF price②Yen-dollar exchangerate
TTS exchange rate

From
a year earlier

140.0[NYMEX]WTI crude oil

130.0(1,000 kl)

3/5 ～ 3/11

2,846

▼

-81

▼

－

(%)

〃

76.8

▼

-2.2

→

－

(1,000 kl)

3/11

11,122

▲

591

▲

－

($/bbl)

3/13

80.60

▼

-1.59

▼

-22.0

($/bbl)

3/13

74.80

▼

-5.66

▼

-28.2

60.0

($/bbl)Ｍｉｄ Ｆｅｂ

87.80

▲

0.84

▲

1.05

50.0

(yen/kl)〃

71,789

▲

1,077

▲

9,129

(yen/dollar)〃

129.98

▼

-0.70

▼

-15.15[TOCOM]MiddleEastern crude oil

123.70121.51

120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0

40.0

(yen/dollar)

3/13

135.34

▲

1.58

30.0
20.0
2020.4.20 WTI ▲37.63

10.0▼-16.731

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 48/2022(￥/Ｌ)(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)
From
This week

Gasolinea weekearlier889

Imports〃n.a.

Supply/DemandShipments

〃

783

▼

-53

▲

－

Exports

〃

82

▼

-38

▼

－

3/11

1,671

▲

24

▲

－

3/7 ～ 3/13

73.4

▲

0.8

▼

-8.6

3/7 ～ 3/13

73.0

→

0.0

▼

-14.2

3/13

73.6

→

0.0

▼

-11.4

3/13

167.4

→

0.0

▼

-7.8

Inventories
Gyoten (spot) [4-district
average lorry rack price](RIM)(TOCOM/
PricesFutures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

▼

-23

▼

n.a.

－

n.a.

(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)a weekearlier

Supply/DemandImports〃

n.a.

Shipments

〃

655

▲

4

▼

－

Exports

〃

45

▼

-127

▼

－

3/11

1,206

▲

21

▼

－

3/7 ～ 3/13

75.0

▲

0.4

▼

-8.1

3/7 ～ 3/13

77.1

▲

0.7

▼

-14.7

3/13

－

3/13

147.6

average lorry rack price](RIM)(TOCOM/
PricesFutures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

167.4

165.0

▼

-48

▼

n.a.

0.0

2/8

3/13
3/9

(￥/Ｌ)

Diesel oil (retail)

－

n.a.

－
→

1/10

a year earlier

722

Gyoten (spot) [4-district

168.2

From

3/5 ～ 3/11

Inventories

170.0

160.0

From
This week

Production

175.0

160.0
12/12

*Gyoten and futures prices are before tax

Diesel oil

Gasoline (retail)a year earlier

3/5 ～ 3/11

Production

180.0

From

155.0

150.0
148.3
147.6

145.0

－
▼

-7.3

*Gyoten and futures prices are before tax

140.0

12/12

1/10

2/8

3/9
1/17
3/13

(￥/Ｌ)
(Unit: 1,000 kl, yen/l)

125.0

From
This week

Kerosenea weekearlier

3/5 ～ 3/11

231

Imports〃

n.a.

Shipments

〃

286

▼

-116

▼

－

Exports

〃

0

→

0

→

－

3/11

1,173

▼

-54

▲

－

3/7 ～ 3/13

75.5

▲

0.2

▼

-7.1

3/7 ～ 3/13

75.0

→

0.0

▼

-11.2

3/13

76.3

→

0.0

▼

-5.7

3/13

110.8

▼

-0.1

▼

-4.3

Production

Supply/DemandInventories
Gyoten (spot) [4-district
average lorry rack price](RIM)(TOCOM/
PricesFutures [front-monthcontract/closing price]

Tokyo Bay)(TOCOM/
Chubu)

Retail prices [weekly(publishedtrend]

by ANRE)

▼

-60

From
a year earlier

▼

n.a.

Kerosene (retail)

－

n.a.

120.0

115.0

111.3
110.0

110.8

105.0

12/12

1/10

2/8

3/13
3/9

2

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 48/2022■ Relevant Information
Overseas crude oil prices
1
On the crude oil futures market for this week (from March 9 to March 15), WTI end price logged $75.72/bbl on March 9 and rose
further to $76.68/bbl on March 10 the last weekend mainly by the expectations for China’s economic recovery. However, WTI end price turned
down for the third straight trading day from March 13 due to concerns about the U.S. financial system, falling below the milestone of $70/bbl,
and logged $67.61/bbl on March 15.
According to the U.S. EIA Weekly Report announced on March 15, the U.S. domestic inventory as of March 10 increased by 1.6
million bbl for crude oil from the previous week, which was more than the market expectations of an increase by 1.2 million bbl.
According to the EIA, the average U.S. retail price of gasoline as of March 13 increased by 6.7 cents per gallon from a week earlier
to $3.456/gal (123.4 yen/l), increasing for the second straight week. The average U.S. retail price of diesel oil decreased by 3.5 cents per gallonfrom a week earlier to $4.247/gal (151.7 yen/l), decreasing for the sixth straight week.
Baker Hughes reported on March 10 that the number of operating U.S. oil-drilling rigs decreased by two units from a week earlier to
590 units, decreasing for the fourth straight week.

2

Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (1) Shipments

According to a weekly report by the PAJ (Petroleum
Association of Japan), inactive topper capacity in the March 5 March 11 week in 2023 stood at 227,000 barrels per day,increasing by 122,000 bpd from the previous week (total capacity
remained at 3,331,000 bpd).
Crude oil throughput in the week decreased by 81,000
kl from the previous week to 2,846,000 kl. From a year earlier, it
decreased by 237,000 kl. The topper capacity utilization rate
stood at 76.8%, down 2.2 points from the previous week anddown 3.3 points from a year earlier.
Production increased from the previous week for jet
fuel, Fuel Oil A, and Fuel Oil C and decreased for otherpetroleum products. Output was down 2.5% for gasoline, up
48.9% for jet fuel, down 20.6% for kerosene, down 6.2% fordiesel oil, up 10.11% for Fuel Oil A, and up 10.6% for Fuel Oil
C. Fuel Oil C imports in the week totaled 48,000 kl, down 41,000
kl from the previous week. Diesel oil exports aggregated 45,000
kl, down 127,000 kl from the previous week.
Shipments (excluding imports) in the week increased
from the previous week for jet fuel, diesel oil, and Fuel Oil C anddecreased for other oil products. From a year earlier, shipments
expanded for gasoline, jet fuel and Fuel Oil C and declined forother oil products. Gasoline shipments decreased by 6.3% fromthe previous week to 783,000 kl, decreasing for the second
straight week. Shipments totaled 139,000 kl for jet fuel (up2

213.6% from the previous week), 286,000 kl for kerosene (down
29.0% from the previous week), 655,000 kl for diesel oil (up 0.6%
from the previous week), 201,000 kl for Fuel Oil A (down 22.7%
from the previous week), and 318,000 kl for Fuel Oil C (up 72.3%
from the previous week).
(Unit: 1,000 kl)
This week

Previous week

From
a week earlier(3/5 ～ 3/11)(2/26 ～ 3/4)

Gasoline

783

836

▼

-53

（-6%）

Jet fuel

139

44

▲

95

（216%）

Kerosene (heating

286

402

▼

-116 （-29%）

Diesel oil

655

651

▲

4

（1%）

Fuel oil A

201

260

▼

-59

（-23%）

Fuel Oil C

318

185

▲

133

（ 72%）

Total

2,382

2,378

▲

4

（0%）

Oil)

This week’s shipments = (Previous weekend inventories + This week’s production+ This week’s imports) - (This week’s exports + This weekend inventories)

Petroleum products supply and demand in Japan (2) Inventories

Inventories as of March 11 increased for gasoline,
diesel oil, and Fuel Oil A and decreased for other petroleum
products. From a year earlier, inventories decreased for jet fueland diesel oil and increased for other petroleum products.
Gasoline inventories totaled 1,671,000 kl, up 24,000 kl
from a week earlier and up 25,000 kl from a year earlier.
Kerosene inventories totaled 1,173,000 kl, down
54,000 kl from a week earlier and up 57,000 kl from a year
earlier.
Diesel oil inventories totaled 1,206,000 kl, up 21,000
kl from a week earlier and down 39,000 kl from a year earlier.
Fuel Oil A inventories totaled 682,000 kl, up 23,000 kl
from a week earlier and up 13,000 kl from a year earlier.
Fuel Oil C inventories totaled 1,747,000 kl, down
40,000 kl from a week earlier and up 196,000 kl from a year
earlier.

(Unit: 1,000 kl)
FromThis week

Previous week

(3/11)(3/4)

Gasoline

1,671

1,647

▲

24

Jet fuel

688

745

▼

-57 （-8%）

Kerosene (heating

1,173

1,227

▼

-54 （-4%）

Diesel oil

1,206

1,185

▲

21

（2%）

Fuel oil A

682

659

▲

23

（3%）

Fuel Oil C

1,747

1,787

▼

-40 （-2%）

Total

7,167

7,250

▼

-83

Oil)

a week earlier（1%）（-1.1%）3

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 48/2022

Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (1) Wholesale price revision trend

3

During March 7 – March 13, crude oil cost in yen decreased by 0.5 yen/l from a week earlier with a decrease in crude oil price andthe appreciation of the yen to the U.S. dollar.
For the next week of March 16– March 22, Motouri companies increased their real wholesale prices for gasoline, kerosene, anddiesel oil by 0.5 yen/l from a week earlier, because a subsidy of 17.1yen/l from this week was added to an increase in the cost of 17.6 yen/lincluding the previous week’s subsidy of 18.1 yen/l.

Petroleum products wholesale prices in Japan (2) Spot (Gyoten) and futures price trend

3

Spot petroleum products prices in the March 7 – March 13
week increased for all oil products in all trading except for the leveled
off gasoline and kerosene futures prices compared to the period of
February 28– March 6.
The latest onshore cargo spot price (the average onshore
rack price for four districts -- Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo, and Hanshin-- for March 7 – March 13) increased by 0.8 yen/l from the previous
week for gasoline and increased by 0.2 yen/l for kerosene andincreased by 0.4 yen/l for diesel oil.
The average offshore barge spot price in Tokyo Bay
increased by 0.9 yen/l for gasoline, increased by 0.1 yen/l for kerosene
and increased by 1.1 yen/l for diesel oil on March 7 – March 13 weekfrom the previous week.
The key average futures price leveled off for gasoline andfor kerosene and increased by 0.7 yen/l for diesel oil from a weekearlier.

(RIM)[4-district

Spot
Prices(Unit: yen/l)

average lorry

This week

Previous week

From a weekrack price](3/7 ～ 3/13)(2/28 ～ 3/6)

earlier

Regular

73.4

72.6

▲

0.8

Kerosene

75.5

75.3

▲

0.2

Diesel oil

75.0

74.6

▲

0.4

This week

Previous week

From a week

[Average](3/7 ～ 3/13)(2/28 ～ 3/6)

earlier

Regular

73.0

73.0

→

0.0

Kerosene

75.0

75.0

→

0.0

Diesel oil

77.1

76.4

▲

0.7

(TOCOM)(Unit: yen/l)[Front-monthcontract/closing
price]

FuturesPrice

Above prices are before tax.
Reference (March 7 - March 13 actual data)(Unit: yen/l)

Products

Spot

Futures

Average

Gasoline

0.8

0.0

0.4

Kerosene

0.2

0.0

0.1

Diesel oil

0.4

0.7

0.6

Fuel Oil A

0.6(Source) Spot: RIM 4-district average lorry rack price(Chiba, Kawasaki, Chukyo, Hanshin)
Futures: TOCOM average offshore barge spot price for Keihin District

4

Retail prices of petroleum products in JapanThe average retail service station price as of March 13 leveled off from a week earlier at 167.4 yen/l for gasoline, leveled off at
147.6 yen/l for diesel oil and decreased by 2 yen to 1,995 yen for kerosene on an 18-liter tank basis (decreased by 0.1 yen/l to 110.8 yen/l) froma week earlier. The gasoline price leveled off for the fourth straight week. Diesel oil price stopped increasing for the first time in two weeks.
Kerosene price decreased for the first time in two weeks.
Gasoline prices increased in 18 prefectures, leveled off in five prefectures, and decreased in 24 prefectures. The lowest gasoline
price among the prefectures was 159.8 yen/l in Tokushima. The second lowest was 160.2 yen/l in Miyagi. The highest price was 180.3 yen/l in
Nagasaki. Aichi logged the largest price hike of 2.0 yen/l from the previous week. The price leveled off in Kouchi and four other prefectures.
Wakayama logged the largest price fall of 1.2 yen/l.
Retail gasoline price on the next price survey day March 20 is expected to level off or fluctuate slightly from a week earlier.

(Unit: yen/l)(Published byANRE)[Weekly

This week

Previous week

(3/13)(3/6)

earlier

Regular

167.4

167.4

→

0.0

Kerosene

110.8

110.9

▼

-0.1 08/8/11 132.1

Diesel oil

147.6

147.6

→

0.0

trend]

From a week

Latest high

08/8/4185.1

Nationwide average cash retail price(including consumption tax)

RetailPrice

Since April 2007, 2,000 service stations
have been covered.
Latest highs are highest levels since

08/8/4167.4

October 2003.

4

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 48/2022

Gasoline price trend(2022/12/26 ～190.0

2023/3/13)（￥/Ｌ ）

（￥/Ｌ)

105.0

Left scale: retail prices

100.0

180.0

95.0

Retail price

170.0

90.0
160.0

85.0
150.0

TOCOM/ futures, Tokyo Bay

80.0

TOCOM/ futures, Chubu

140.0

75.0
130.0

70.0

RIM (offshore barge)
RIM (onshore)

120.0

65.0
Right scale: RIM and futures prices

110.0
12/26 1/10
Retail price

1/16

1/23

RIM (offshore barge)

1/30

2/6

2/13

TOCOM ( futures, Tokyo Bay)

3/6

60.0
3/13

TOCOM ( futures price, Chubu)

RIM (onshore)

2/20

2/27

(Note) ① Retail price includes consumption Tax, RIM, TOCOM prices are before tax.
② RIM (onshore) is the aberage of four district .

5

IEEJ：March 2023 © IEEJ2023

Oil Market Review in Japan No. 48/2022■ Announcement
This report is available at the center’s website (https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/).
The next issue (No. 49 ｆor 2022) will be announced on March 31.

On use of this report

Weekly Oil Market Review

The copyrights to texts, graphics and other information(hereinafter combined into “documents”) in this report belong
to the Oil Information Center of the Institute of Energy
Economics, Japan (hereinafter referred to as this Center), or
to third parties contributing the documents to this Center.
This Center forbids the documents from being repurposed,
duplicated or altered without approval by this Center.

In an interim report compiled in May 2004 by a petroleum
products market trend study panel sponsored by thePetroleum Distribution and Retail Division of the Natural
Resources and Fuel Department at the Agency for Natural
Resources and Energy, the panel stated, “We hope that theJapanese oil industry will solidify its market and price-finding
functions and that the oil industry as a mainstay industry inJapan will further enhance its rationality and vitality over a
medium term as industry people deepen their understandingof the need for rational price recognition based on market
and price-finding functions to be established in the oil
industry and for business decisions based on recognition
under the principle of self-responsibility.”This Center has made the documents comprehensive but noguarantee is made as to accuracy or safety.

In response to the report, this Center has published theWeekly Oil Market Review as a tool for oil-related people,
business administrators (particularly service station
managers) and ordinary consumers to accurately understandcrude oil and petroleum products supply and demand andprice trends, in cooperation with relevant organizations suchas the Petroleum Association of Japan and the Zensekiren(Japan’s Dealers Association) since May 2005.

Sources of data provided in this report① [Crude oil and petroleum products supply and demand](weekly PAJ report)
Data in weekly statistics on crude oil and petroleum productsupply by the Petroleum Association of Japan are calculated
in terms of 1,000 kiloliters. Shipments are estimated by thisCenter.
② [Crude oil and futures prices] (WTI crude and Middle
Eastern crude)
For the WTI crude, the front-month WTI crude futurescontract’s daily closing price on the New York Mercantile
Exchange (NYMEX) is adopted.

For the Middle Eastern crude, the front-month Middle
Eastern crude futures contract’s closing price on the Tokyo
Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) is adopted. ＊”Secondmonth (next-month) contract”
Underlying the Middle Eastern crude price is the average
price for the Dubai and Oman crude oil. The telegraphictransfer middle rate (TTM) released by the MUFG Bank isadopted as the foreign exchange rate.
The crude oil import CIF price is a dollar-denominatedreference price estimated by the PAJ based on the average
crude oil price (on a 10-day basis) in the Ministry of Finance
trade statistics.
③[Motouri wholesale prices of petroleum products in Japan]
Motouri wholesale prices are prices for transactions between
Motouri petroleum products wholesalers (primary wholesalers)
and their affiliates (secondary wholesalers).

Motouri companies modified their new pricing system in
April 2010 to decide specific policies in comprehensive
consideration of crude oil and petroleum products market
prices, each other’s prices and other data. In June 2014,
they modified the system further to give greater priority tocrude oil cost.
④ [Gyoten spot prices of petroleum products in Japan](RIM gyoten)
Onshore cargo spot prices are the average onshore lorryrack prices for the four districts of Tokyo, Kawasaki,
Chukyo and Hanshin in the Lorry Rack Report of RIMIntelligence Co.

⑤ [Futures prices of petroleum products in Japan](TOCOM)
Front-month petroleum products futures contracts’ daily
closing prices for TOCOM Tokyo Bay and Chubu are
adopted.
TOCOM Tokyo Bay prices are the average offshore barge
prices for the Keihin district. TOCOM Chubu prices are theaverage lorry rack prices in the Chubu district.
⑥ [Retail prices of petroleum products in Japan] (Weekly
trend survey)
Average cash retail prices at some 2,000 service stations
subject to a weekly nationwide survey are adopted (asreleased by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy).
The survey covers prices on Monday and is released at
14:00 on Wednesday (available on the website of the
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy).

6
Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp