IEEJ e-NEWSLETTER
No. 238(Based on Japanese No. 229)

Published: October 17, 2022
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan(As of October 17, 2022)

Sources:(1) DOE-EIA(2) Investing.com

Sources:(1) Ministry of Finance "Japan Trade Statistics"(2) Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (arrival month basis)(3) Estimated by World Bank (Netherland Title Transfer Facility)(4) DOE-EIA, NYMEX (Front-month Futures)

Source: x-rates.com

Sources:(1) Finance. Yahoo.com(2) Investing.com

Contents
Summary【Energy Market and Policy Trends】
1. Developments in Nuclear Power
2. Recent Developments in the Oil and LNG Markets
3. Update on Climate Change, Energy Conservation, and Renewable Energies【Global Monitoring】
4. Europe and US: Power Supply-Demand Balance Tightens throughout Europe and the U.S.
5. China: Accelerating Nuclear Power Development, but Securing Absolute Safety Is an Issue
6. ME: Protests Grow in Iran as Nuclear Talks Stall
7. Russia: President Putin Faces Difficulties but Remains Aggressive1Summary
1. Developments in Nuclear PowerIn its report, the IAEA called for an immediate halt to the shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear
power plant and suggested that the surrounding area be designated a safe zone. Japan saw
progress in international cooperation on research and development of a new reactor technology.
2. Recent Developments in the Oil and LNG Markets
Risks of a price surge in the oil market remain with uncertain factors surrounding Russian
developments. Long-term LNG development activities continue for non-Russian regions.
3. Update on Climate Change, Energy Conservation, and Renewable Energies

The U.S. state of California has adopted rules that would require all new car sales in the state to be 100%zero-emission vehicles by 2035. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government announced a policy requiring the
installation of solar panels on all new houses in Tokyo.

4. Europe and US: Power Supply-Demand Balance Tightens throughout Europe and theU.S.
In the U.S., the supply-demand balance appears to be tightening in Texas and California, as
well as in Europe, as export capacity declines. In Europe, energy-saving measures in
preparation for winter are urgently needed.
5. China: Accelerating Nuclear Power Development, but Securing Absolute Safety Is an
Issue
The State Council issued construction permits for 10 units at five nuclear power plants on
two separate occasions, in April and September. The total capacity, including those awaiting
start of construction, amounts to 85 units totaling 90.83 GW. The key challenges are ensuring
absolute safety and constructing radioactive waste disposal facilities.
6. ME: Protests Grow in Iran as Nuclear Talks Stall
Iranian President Raisi’s attendance at the UN General Assembly raised hopes for progressin the negotiations to revive the nuclear deal, but around the same time, protests erupted andspread across the country, prompting the Biden administration to strengthen sanctions against
Iran.
7. Russia: President Putin Faces Difficulties but Remains Aggressive
The Russian military continues to struggle, forcing a “referendum with consequences” inparts of eastern Ukraine, while the Putin administration, which has issued a partial mobilization
order and hinted at the possibility of using nuclear weapons, is facing renewed domestic
opposition.

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1. Developments in Nuclear Power
Emiri YOKOTA, Senior Researcher
Nuclear Energy Group, Strategy Research Unit
On September 6, the IAEA released a report summarizing the findings of the team of IAEA
experts who were conducting an investigation at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear
Power Plant in southern Ukraine. The report confirmed that the shelling had caused damage atseveral locations, including nuclear fuel and radioactive waste storage facilities. It also noted
that, under the control of the Russian military, plant workers are striving to ensure safety underconditions of extreme stress. Accordingly, the report proposed that the nuclear power plant area
be designated a safe zone, while also demanding an immediate halt to the shelling, emphasizingthat “until the conflict is over, interim measures must be put in place to prevent nuclear
accidents that may result from the attacks.”
On September 11, Energoatom, Ukraine’s state-owned nuclear company, announced that it
had shut down Unit 6, the only operating reactor at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which is occupiedby the Russian military. It explained that the decision to shut down the unit was made after partof the transmission line was restored. There are apparently no problems with the cooling of thereactor and other aspects of maintaining reactor stability at present. Since the shutdown of Unit
5 on September 3, multiple transmission lines connecting the power plant to the outside havebeen damaged, making it difficult to secure an external power source to cool the reactors in an
emergency. As such, Unit 6 has been providing the power necessary to maintain the safety ofthe entire Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. If the shelling continues and the external powersource is lost, the reactors will have to be cooled using emergency diesel generators. Since fuelfor the generators is also limited, the situation must continue to be monitored closely.
In a major development in Europe, the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs andClimate Action decided to conduct stress tests on the stable supply of electricity and stable grid
operations. The two stress tests were completed by early September. The three remaining
reactors in Germany were previously scheduled to be decommissioned by the end of this year,
but after the stress tests, it was decided to keep two of the three reactors in operation as backup
capacity until April 2023.
The UK is scheduled to implement the Advanced Modular Reactor (AMR) Research,
Development and Demonstration Programme, aiming to demonstrate High Temperature Gas
Cooled Reactor (HTGR) technology by the early 2030s. On September 5, the Japan Atomic
Energy Agency (JAEA), which has a collaborative relationship with the UK National Nuclear
Laboratory (NNL) in the field of HTGR technologies, announced that it was selected as the
project entity to implement the AMR RD&D program as a member of the NNL team. Throughparticipating in the program in cooperation with NNL, JAEA aims to upgrade Japan’s HTGR
technology developed through the construction and operation of the High Temperature
Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR), and demonstrate its HTGR technology in the UK to achieveinternational standardization. This initiative aims to strengthen Japan’s international
competitiveness in this field; its future progress deserves close attention.
On September 22, at the 31st meeting of the Nuclear Energy Subcommittee, the Agency for
Natural Resources and Energy proposed once again considering extending the lifetime ofexisting reactors and rebuilding the research and development framework for next-generation
reactors.
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2. Recent Developments in the Oil and LNG Markets
Hiroshi HASHIMOTO, Senior Analyst
Head of Gas Group
Fossil Energies & International Cooperation Unit
The OPEC+ oil producers agreed on 5 September to cut their production in the month by
100 thousand barrels per day (B/D) in the month. The cut effectively nullified the increase of
the same volume agreed in August. But WTI briefly declined to the USD 70s due to a fear of
the global economic slowdown. The U.S. Federal Reserve Board (FRB) on 21 September
decided to increase its benchmark interest rate by 0.75% for the third time, to reduce
inflationary pressures, with the U.S. dollar getting stronger and the stock markets destabilized.
Russian crude oil export increased by 220 thousand B/D to reach 7.60 million B/D in August,as Western nations' import declines continued being offset by increasing imports by China,
India and others. On 2 September, G7 finance ministers agreed to impose a cap on prices of
Russian oil from December. As Russia's president has suggested potential halts of energy
exports to those nations participating in the scheme, there remain risks of another surge of crude
oil prices.
Japan's average LNG import price was close to JPY 139,371 per tonne in August 2022, thehighest ever again after the previous high in July. The price measured in the U.S. dollars inAugust was also the highest in the history approaching USD 20 per million Btu, surpassing theprevious record in July 2012.
Uncertainty continues over Russian gas supply in both Pacific and European regions.
Pipeline gas flows through the Nord Stream pipeline into Germany stopped in late August for
ad-hoc maintenance and had not returned yet when the pipes were damaged in late September.
The two Japanese partners have joined the new Russian entity that has taken over the Sakhalin
2 LNG project, although Shell did not. The next question is who will take over the share andwhat would be the impact of the transfer.
With the relatively smooth build-up of gas storages in the European Union, the TTF gas
price declined from the high of nearly USD 100 per million Btu oil equivalent in late August to
the USD 50s in late September. However, it was nearly twice as high as that of a year ago, as
anxiety continues over supply toward the coming winter.
Activities continue to secure long-term gas and LNG around the world. Cheniere Energy,
the current largest LNG exporter in the United States, revealed in its long-term investment plana potential goal of 90-million-tonne-per-year capacity through expansions at its two LNG
export plants on the coast of Gulf of Mexico. The company has already started regulatory
processes for additional two mid-scale trains at its Corpus Christi Liquefaction site in Texas.
In Western Australia, Woodside Energy, the operator of North West Shelf LNG, haspublished the final Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the Browse-to-North West Shelf(NWS) Project as directed by the authority. The project would send gas to the NWS plant, withproduction capacity of 11.4 million tonnes per year (of LNG, LPG and domestic gas combined).
A feasibility study is also planned for a potential CCS project at one of depleted fields of theNWS ventures.

43. Update on Climate Change, Energy Conservation, and Renewable Energies
Tomoko MATSUMOTO, Senior Researcher
Renewable Energy GroupElectric Power Industry & New and Renewable Energy Unit
In addition to efforts by central governments, the policies of regional governments to promotedecarbonization are critical to achieving carbon neutrality. For example, the U.S. state of California
has actively taken decarbonization measures. On August 10, the California Energy Commission
announced a target to deploy 3 to 5 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2030 and 25 gigawatts by
2045. The state of California has set a goal of achieving 100% clean electricity by 2045. Offshore
wind power is expected to contribute to reaching this goal.
Then, on August 25, the California Air Resources Board approved rules that would require all
new car sales in the state to be 100% zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) (including plug-in hybrids,
EVs, and fuel cell vehicles) by 2035. The percentage of zero-emission vehicles in new vehicle sales
will be raised gradually from 35% in 2026, and after 2035, sales of new gasoline vehicles, including
hybrids, will be banned.
Regional governments in Japan are also making progress in their decarbonization efforts. The
Ministry of the Environment will allocate 5 billion yen in its FY2023 budget request to the subsidy
program for projects to support planning for the maximum introduction of renewable energy to help
municipalities decarbonize. Eligible projects include those that contribute to setting regional
renewable energy targets and formulating ambitious regional decarbonization initiatives,
implementing regional decarbonization activities, and supporting capacity building for
decarbonization. This subsidy program, a significant increase from the FY2022 budget of 800
million yen, will strengthen support for regional governments.
On September 9, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government revealed the basic policy for revising its
ordinance systems to halve its carbon emissions, aiming to reduce Tokyo’s greenhouse gas
emissions by 50% (compared to 2000 levels) by 2030. In addition to strengthening the existingmeasures, a new system provisionally called “Environmental Reporting System for Buildings” willbe established. The system will set insulation and energy-saving performance standards for certain
new, small- and medium-scale buildings (houses, etc.) for home developers and builders supplying
a total residential floor space of 20,000 square meters or more per year in Tokyo, and make it
mandatory to install solar panels on new houses. In addition, subsidies will be provided to encourage
the installation of solar power generation equipment. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government aims toenforce the system from April 2025.
The G20 Environment and Climate Ministerial Meeting and the Energy Transitions Ministerial
Meeting were held in Bali, Indonesia on August 31 and September 2, respectively. According topress reports, both meetings failed to agree on a joint communiqué, with Russia, China, India, andothers disagreeing with G7 countries over references to Ukraine, climate finance, methane
emissions, international shipping, carbon border adjustment, and whether a temperature goal shouldbe 1.5°C or 2°C. In Japan, on September 6, the first meeting of experts on emissions trading in theGX (green transformation) League was held to discuss the concept of such emissions trading. The
second meeting of experts will be held in the fall, at which the secretariat’s proposal will bepresented based on opinions from companies. The emissions trading rules are scheduled to be
formulated by the end of this year, to be fully implemented starting in FY2023.

54. Europe and US: Power Supply-Demand Balance Tightens throughout Europe
and the U.S.
Junichi OGASAWARA, Senior Research Fellow
Assistant Director
Electric Power Industry & New and Renewable Energy Unit
In Japan, the U.S., and Europe, electricity markets are becoming less resilient to shocks such as
natural disasters due to a decline in surplus supply capacity. This section summarizes the current
tight power supply-demand situation in Europe and the United States.
In the U.S., Texas’ ERCOT issued a power conservation request on July 13 due to increased
demand caused by a heat wave. In July, electricity demand hit nearly 80 gigawatts almost every
day, whereas the typical demand during the summer season is around 70 gigawatts. In California,
after a warning was issued on August 17 due to a heat wave, demand increased again in September,
resulting in warnings being issued every day from the 1st to the 9th and a level 3 emergency being
issued on the 6th, placing the state on the verge of planned power outages. A level 2 emergency
was also issued on the following day, the 7th, invoking the emergency program, but planned power
outages were avoided on both days. In California, it is difficult to build even a new natural gas-fired
power plant, with renewable power generation and storage batteries being the only source of new
capacity. As a result, the supply and demand balance may become tight every summer in the nearterm.
Europe also experienced a heat wave from June to August, which tightened the supply anddemand of electricity. As Europe does not have a mechanism similar to the “electricity forecast” ofJapan, it is impossible to know how much supply capacity is remaining. In the United Kingdom,which is the only country that publishes the day’s supply capacity and outage probability in the BM
Report provided by Elexon, more than 70% of all days during the period from June to August had
a positive outage probability (namely, there was a possibility of an outage) on an hour-ahead basis.
This was largely due to France turning into a net importer from mid-June as nuclear outages
increased and available installed capacity dropped to less than 25 GW in late July. The heat wave
also made it difficult to use water and reduced the available installed capacity of power plants andhydroelectric power stations built in riverine areas, reducing the number of countries with export
capacity. As Germany, too, has been holding back on natural gas-fired power generationconsidering the cost of purchasing natural gas, the supply-demand balance of electricity has beentight throughout continental Europe.
On September 15, the European Commission released a draft regulation on emergency
intervention in response to high energy prices, which includes the key strategies of: (1) curbing
electricity demand, (2) applying a cap on electricity sales revenues for most power generation
facilities except for natural gas-fired and general coal-fired power plants, which are peak sources,and (3) collecting contributions from surplus profits made by fossil energy companies. Since thedraft regulation does not curb increases in wholesale electricity market prices per se, even this
proposal is likely to have limited effect on improving the deficits of retail operators and curbing theskyrocketing electricity prices paid by consumers. While the caps and compensation for pricedifferences for power producers purchasing natural gas in Spain and Portugal have helped to curb
the soaring wholesale electricity market prices in those countries, other countries lack the funds forproviding such compensation, and have apparently decided to first secure the resources needed to
implement the measure. Due to the possibility that French nuclear power may not be sufficient thiswinter, December futures for France topped 1,500 euros/MWh on September 23. Power-saving
measures must be implemented urgently heading toward the winter.

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5. China: Accelerating Nuclear Power Development, but Securing Absolute Safety
Is an Issue

Li ZHIDONG, Visiting Researcher
Professor at Graduate School
Nagaoka University of Technology

On September 13, Prime Minister Li Keqiang chaired a meeting of the standing committee of theState Council. In the meeting, the government gave the green light to expansion of the Zhangzhou
Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Fujian Province with two units (Units 3 and 4) and the construction of
two units (Units 1 and 2) at a new plant, Lianjiang NPP, in Guangdong Province, to increase China’s
energy security capability and promote green development. Combined with the six units at three NPPs
approved on April 20, construction permits have been issued for 10 units at five NPPs (totaling 12.32
GW) this year, far exceeding the five units at three NPPs (totaling 5.22 GW) approved last year.
Since 2011, China has failed to meet the nuclear power development target in its Five-Year Plan for
two consecutive Plan periods. The 2020 target was a total capacity of at least 88 GW (including at least
30 GW under construction), but the actual capacity constructed was just 68.42 GW (including 18.54
GW under construction). According to the National Nuclear Safety Administration and other sources,
as of August 2022, there were 54 units in operation with a capacity of 55.81 GW and 23 units underconstruction with a capacity of 25.20 GW, bringing the total to 77 units with a total capacity of 81.01
GW. The 2020 target has yet to be achieved. Meanwhile, the 14th Five-Year Plan set a target of 70 GW
in operation by 2025 by promoting development in coastal areas actively and with discipline, on thepremise of ensuring safety. No new targets were set for the start of construction as it involves highuncertainty. Since the NPPs that have received construction permits from the State Council will be built
at some point, the total capacity, including those that have been authorized and are awaiting the start ofconstruction, is estimated to be 85 units with a capacity of 90.83 GW as of the end of September. Thus,
China is accelerating its efforts to develop nuclear power plants.
Why is this? Although it is a carbon-free power source, nuclear power has not become more costcompetitiveness than solar PV, wind, and other renewable power sources, which are becoming cheaper
than thermal power. The trend is due to the fact that power supply shortages and slowing economic
growth have become more pronounced since the beginning of the year, forcing the government toincrease the role of nuclear power plants, which provide both a stable power supply and an economic
boost. Guosen Securities estimates that the 10 nuclear power plants approved this year will all bedomestically-produced third-generation reactors, with a relatively large investment of 18–20 billion
yuan (1 yuan = 20 yen) per unit and a total investment of 180–200 billion yuan. Half of the total
investment is in facilities, whose domestic production rate is estimated to be 85% or more for CAP 1000
(6 units, 7,500 MW) and 90% or more for the HUALONG1 (4 units, 4,820 MW), and thus most of theinvestment will contribute to expanding domestic demand. This suggests that nuclear power plantinvestment is extremely effective for expanding domestic demand, as was the case with the investment
in variable renewable energy, which is now completely domestically-produced.
Meanwhile, the biggest challenge for the development of nuclear power is ensuring absolute safety,
which is also essential for the stable supply of electricity. Since the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japanon March 11, 2011, the Chinese government has been promoting the construction of third- and fourthgeneration nuclear reactors that feature excellent safety. According to the China Nuclear Energy
Association, Sanmen NPP Unit 2 (AP1000) in Zhejiang Province began commercial operation on
November 5, 2018, but was shut down from December 22, 2018, to November 21, 2019 due to a failure.
Taishan NPP Unit 1 (EPR) in Guangdong Province started operation on December 13, 2018, but by
April 5, 2021, four level-zero incidents with no radioactive material leakage occurred, including
shutdowns due to external power grid failures and fuel rod damage, resulting in shutdowns from July
31, 2021 to August 14, 2022. Shidaowan NPP Unit 1 (a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor) in
Shandong Province underwent initial fuel loading on August 21, 2021, but has not been in commercial
operation as of June 30, 2022. Two HUALONG1 units are in operation, but their safety verification is
expected to take several years. Such issues are very common whenever a new technology is first
introduced. Also, as common in all countries, the construction of disposal facilities for intermediateand high-level radioactive waste is a challenge.
76. ME: Protests Grow in Iran as Nuclear Talks Stall
Sachi SAKANASHI, Senior Research Fellow
Assistant Director, JIME Center
On September 17, in Iran, where much attention is focused on the negotiations to rebuild thenuclear deal (JCPOA), street protests erupted and quickly spread to other parts of the country.
The protest was caused by the arrest of a young woman who was allegedly “wearing a headscarf improperly” and died in custody, prompting strong condemnation of the “unjustness of
the authorities.” Security forces are responding in various locations, and there have been reports
of deaths of both protesters and the authorities policing the protests.
Amid these circumstances, Iranian President Raisi visited New York to attend the UN
General Assembly, where he met with heads of state and government, including French
President Emmanuel Macron and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, and delivered aspeech at the General Debate on September 21. Prior to his visit to New York, President Raisi
had announced that he had no plans to meet with U.S. negotiators, but his visit to the U.S. wasaccompanied by Foreign Minister Abdollahian and Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs BagheriKani, Iran’s lead nuclear negotiator, leading to speculation about progress of the negotiations
to revive the JCPOA.
The JCPOA negotiations had remained stalled since Iran responded to the “final proposal”
of the EU, saying that there was “no sufficient guarantee that the agreement will be lasting.”
For Iran, President Trump’s casual scrapping of the JCPOA “at zero cost (losing nothing)” wasa serious issue, and it is demanding some guarantee that the next administration, even if there
is a change of government in the United States, would not simply scrap the agreement. On theother hand, in the United States, Republicans remain strongly opposed to the JCPOA, as are
Israel and other U.S. allies, preventing the Biden administration from taking necessary action.
Nevertheless, reviving the JCPOA negotiations continues to attract attention because “there
is no alternative.” If the JCPOA collapses, the only way to stop Iran from developing nuclear
technology would be military action, which the United States does not want as it wishes to focus
on Asia. Furthermore, for Iran, the collapse of the JCPOA would mean the reinstatement of UN
Security Council sanctions against Iran, which would further isolate the country. This is why
the international community believes that both the U.S. and Iran have the political will to revive
the agreement, and therefore a “political solution” to the problem is possible. However, in
response to growing protests in Iran, on September 22, the Biden administration imposed
sanctions on Iran’s Morality Police officials and others for “suppressing the rights of women,”and the JCPOA negotiations were shelved once again. There is growing speculation thatnegotiations may not resume until after the U.S. mid-term elections, if at all.
As the Russia-Ukraine war continues, Middle Eastern countries with good relations with the
U.S. are also adopting a cautious stance toward Russia, maintaining a “neutral” position. The
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, held in Uzbekistan in mid-September withthe participation of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, wasalso attended by President Erdogan of Turkey, a NATO member, sparking much attention.

87. Russia: President Putin Faces Difficulties but Remains Aggressive
Shoichi ITOH, Manager, Senior Analyst
Global Energy Group 2, Strategy Research Unit
On September 8, Gazprom announced that Russian gas exports to the EU fell 48% year-on-year
for January-August 2022. On September 15, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that thevolume of exports to the EU would decrease to one-third (down approximately 50 billion m3) for
the full year of 2022 compared with the previous year. On September 2, Gazprom had announced
the postponement of the restart of the Nord Stream gas pipeline that supplies gas to Germany, citing“maintenance inspections” and on September 5, Kremlin Press Secretary Peskov had suggested thatthe pipeline may remain shut until Western economic sanctions against Russia are lifted. In thesecond quarter of 2022, Russia’s oil exports to China and India increased by 11 million tonnes yearon-year and payments for oil exports increased by $9 billion year-on-year (The Financial Times,
September 7). In August 2022, Russia’s LNG exports to China increased by 33.9% to 671,000
tonnes, and the value of exports rose by 164.5% to $750 million (announced by the General
Administration of Customs of China on September 20).
Russia is growing more and more economically dependent on China and has been trying toestablish a close relationship with the country in international politics as well, but has been
disappointed. On September 15, during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in
Uzbekistan, the leaders of China and Russia had their first in-person talks since Russia invaded
Ukraine in February 2022. Contrary to President Putin’s wishes, President Xi Jinping did not
mention Ukraine in front of the media, which forced President Putin to say that he understands
China has concerns and appreciates China’s neutral stance. Not even a joint statement was issued.
On September 4, the UK Defence Ministry revealed its analysis that Russian soldiers are losing
morale due to a lack of supply logistics and delays in allowance payments. On September 10, theRussian Defense Ministry withdrew Russian soldiers from the key town of Izyum in eastern
Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast, and on the 13th, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced thatapproximately 8,000 square kilometers of territory had been liberated from Russian militaryoccupation. Meanwhile, on September 7 and 9, city district councillors from Saint Petersburg andMoscow issued letters calling for President Putin’s resignation.
On September 21, President Putin hinted at the use of nuclear weapons in a televised speech andannounced that he had signed a presidential decree for partial mobilization to call up 300,000
reservists. Part of the mobilization decree, which took effect immediately, was not disclosed,
prompting rumors that it contains clauses that would allow it to mobilize one million people. On
the same day, more than 1,300 people protested in 39 cities across Russia, including Moscow andSaint Petersburg, and on September 24, more than 800 people were detained by security authoritiesin 35 cities (according to Russian domestic NGOs). The mobilization decree has accelerated theexodus of Russians from the country.
From September 23 through 27, referendums were held in parts of the four oblasts in eastern andsouthern Ukraine where pro-Russian forces are based, asking the residents whether they want tojoin Russia. The international community, including the G7, has condemned the vote as a violationof international laws including the UN Charter and one with a “foregone conclusion,” and has madeit clear that it does not recognize the outcome. There is growing concern about the possibility ofRussia using tactical nuclear weapons, claiming that attacks on parts of Ukraine that Russia seeks
to “annex” as attacks on its own territory.

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