1st Annual Meeting of the Strategic Chinese-Korean-Japanese
Cooperative Program
Harbin, 26-28 November 2011

The Global Earthquake Model:
hazard component

Marco Pagani| Executive Committee, GEM Foundation

WHAT’S GEM
Presentation outline
This presentation provides:- An introduction to what’s GEM and what it does
- A description of GEM pillars:- Global Components- Model Facility- Regional Programmes

THE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE MODEL (GEM)“A collaborative effort devised and launched byOECD’s Global Science Forum, aimed atengaging the global community in the design,development and deployment of uniform openstandards and tools for earthquake risk
assessment worldwide”

PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP
13 countries haveadhered so far

discussions andnegotiations are ongoingwith 15+ others

8 private organisations havepartnered up with GEM so far

they contribute
more than 13 M Eurothe OECD, World Bank, UNESCO, UN/ISDR,
IAEE and IASPEI are associate participantsPUBLIC PARTICIPANTS

Australia

Belgium

EcuadorGermany

Italy

New Zealand

NorwaySingapore

Switzerland

TurkeyTEM

United Kingdom

United States

GEM MAIN COMPONENTSGLOBAL COMPONENTS
Introduction
Global components are large projects involving numerous institutions
around the world. Their main role is to define data models, create databases/stores, prepare guidelines and shared methodologies for dataacquisition and processing.
In hazard, each global component is dedicated to the creation of a specificdata set to be used for PSHA input preparation or calculation:• Faulted Earth• Global Earthquake History• Global Instrumental Catalogue• Global Geodetic Strain Rate
• Global Ground Motion Prediction Equation
Further information available at:
http://www.globalquakemodel.org/global-components

HAZARD GLOBAL COMPONENTS
Global Active Fault and Seismic Source Database
Main products:
An active fault DB resulting from a comprehensive review of DBs available
worldwide (e.g. USGS, DISS Italy, AIST RIO Japan, Database of
Quaternary Deformation for Andean Countries, GNS Active Fault DB,
Taiwan active faults DB)
The new database contains two fundamental layers:- An active fault layer with site data – primarily the fieldobservational data
- A seismic source layer containing parameters required for PSHA
The fault source layer is considered an initial “strawman” for creatingsources in the hazard engine - to be improved via integration andcollaboration with other GEM (database) projects.

HAZARD GLOBAL COMPONENTS
Global Earthquake History
Main products:- A distributed, online resource, called “Global Archive of Historical
Earthquake Studies”, where both reports and macroseismic data points
can be uploaded, organized and made available to public (a frameworkfor future development, so that the Global Earthquake History can beupdated as new results become available).
- Supplying GEM with the best global parametric earthquake catalogue(covering the period 1000-1900 and MW>7) compiled from current
resources and providing, as far as possible, a link to the backgroundinformation- Complementing the catalogue entries with comments and, whenpossible, with earthquake parameters re-assessed from intensity data
points and from historical evidence of length of rupture

HAZARD GLOBAL COMPONENTS
Global Instrumental Seismicity Catalogue
Main products:• A reference Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900-2009) for
characterization of the spatial distribution of seismicity, the magnitude
frequency relation and the maximum magnitude.
Mostly based on the ISS, etc

based on the ISC~25,000 events
1960

1917
1900

Bars (lightest to darkest) indicate the number of events with Mw ≥ 5.5, 5.7, 6.0, 6.5, 7.0

HAZARD GLOBAL COMPONENTS
Global Instrumental Seismicity Catalogue
Main products (contd):
Selection windows:- 1900-1917: MS≥7.5 worldwide + smaller shallow events in stable
continental areas- 1918-1959: MS≥6.25- 1960-2009: MS≥5.5

HAZARD GLOBAL COMPONENTS
Global Geodetic Strain Rate Model
Main products:• A high-resolution stain rate model for the entire globe• GPS velocity field uploading toolHAZARD GLOBAL COMPONENTS
Global GMPEs
Main products/tasks:• Consistency in model and ground motion parameters• Consistency in site conditions parameters• Compile and overview large sets of GMPEs• Select or derive sets of GMPEs per tectonic region• Inclusion of near fault effects• Database of recorded waveforms• Design the Specifications to Compile a Global Database of SoilClassification

GEM MAIN COMPONENTS

OPENQUAKE
Main/distinctive properties• An Open-Source community effort- Transparency- Community participation to thedevelopment- Largely used/adopted- State-of-the-art
The Code is publicly accessible on a publicrepository (still a development version)
http://www.github.com/gem

The hazard component of OpenQuake isdeveloped starting from a lite version ofOpenSHA http://opensha.org

OPENQUAKE
Main/distinctive properties• Extensively tested- At a class/module level- With smoke tests e.g. PEER Test,Tests on the risk component (currentlyonly some PEER tests)

OPENQUAKE
Main/distinctive properties• Documented- For developers
http://openquake.globalquakemodel.org/docs/- For users
https://github.com/gem/openquake-book

OPENQUAKEMain/distinctive properties
On your own laptop

On your cluster• Flexible and scalable architecture
On clouds accessible through theOpenGEM portal

OPENQUAKE
Main/distinctive properties---• Innovative

Tight connection with theModellers' Toolkit
Extensive test coverage of codeand input model
Capable to flexibly manage
whatever logic tree structure
Adaptable: in GEM1 wemodelled hazard using about 15
models around the world
Offers hazard-risk calculation
workflows supporting threemethodologies
The calculation demand impliedby OQ is supported by a robust
IT infrastructureOPENQUAKEOPENQUAKE
Prototype GUI

OPENQUAKE
Users, collaborations, contributions

GEM MAIN COMPONENTSREGIONAL PROGRAMMESIntroduction• Role- RPs are independently founded and managed projects (although astrong interaction with the GEM Model Facility and GCs iswelcome and sought)- Regional programs have a fundamental role in the GEM framework- Work with GCs on creating dataset and standards- Collaboratively work with the GEM MF and the ad-hoc working
group on producing consensual methodologies for PSHAcalculation• Currently Active (Hazard) Programmes:- Caribbean- SHARE (Europe)- North Africa- EMME (Middle East)- EMCA (Central Asia)

REGIONAL PROGRAMMESSHARE - Europe
The first Regional Programme started in GEM. There’s a continuouscollaboration between the GEM MF and SHARE group.
• SHARE is using OpenQuake to compute hazard• SHARE developed a prototype of the MTKREGIONAL PROGRAMMESEMME – Middle East
Hazard and Risk calculation on a test area (Turkey and the MarmaraArea)

REGIONAL PROGRAMMESEMME – Middle East
Hazard and Risk calculation on a test area (Turkey and the MarmaraArea)

REGIONAL PROGRAMMESECUADOR
Calculation of national seismic hazard maps (a collaboration with Instituto
Geofísico EPN, IRD France)

GEM MAIN COMPONENTSWORKING GROUPSTAP WG on Hazard Integration and Assembling
A group aimed at interacting with the RPs so as to create consensual andhomogenised guidelines for PSHA input model preparation andcalculation.
Members:-Mark Stirling – GNS Science, NZ (Chair)John Adams – Canada Geological Survey, Canada
Ned Field and Mark Petersen – USGS, USA
Laura Peruzza – INOGS, Italy
Oona Scotti – IRSN, FranceWORKING GROUPSTAP WG on Tectonic Regionalisation
A group aimed at defining an objective methodology for the classificationof the globe into tectonic regions. This methodology will guide the use of
the most appropriate set of GMPEs depending on the tectonic context.
Members:-John Douglas – BRGM, FR (Chair)
Fabrice Cotton – ISTerre, FR (Chair)
Nicola Litchfield – GNS Science, NZ (Chair)
Kelvin Berryman – GNS Science, NZ (Chair)
Daniel Garcia – USGS, USA
Paul Sommerville – URS Corp., USA
Corné Kreemer – Univ. Nevada, USA
Willie Lee – USGS, USA
Roberto Basili – INGV, IT