(※)This is a English translation of the HPTCJ’s News Release in Japanese.

News Release
16th Jan. 2015
Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan

Primary energy saving effectby increasing diffusion of Heat Pumps
Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan (Chuo-ku, Tokyo; Chairman:Hiroshi Komiyama), a general incorporated foundation that endeavors to promote heatpump and thermal storage systems※1 that contribute greatly to measures for savingenergy and mitigating global warming and are recognized as the equipment to use
renewable energy in Europe, has unveiled its forecast for diffusion of heat pumpequipment till FY2040 and estimated primary energy saving effects in conjunction withwidespread use of such equipment and systems.
※1：A heat pump is a technology to utilize renewable energy by harnessing “heat” existing in the naturesuch as the air for application to air-conditioning, hot-water supply, etc. The technology contributes toprevention of global warming by replacing the traditional burning systems. Also, the combined use of thermal
storage system suppresses power consumption during the electricity demand leveling hours; thus, enabling
operation responding to the needs of not only the demand-side but also the supply-side (demand response, etc.).

○ Primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps
If boilers, etc. that meet the heat demands in private sector (residential andcommercial sectors) and industrial sector are replaced by the heat pumps, estimatedprimary energy saving effects are as follows (figures in the parenthesis are the crude
oil equivalent) ※2:

 In FY2020：▲283,000 TJ（▲7.3 million kL）
 In FY2030：▲697,000 TJ（▲18 million kL）
 In FY2040：▲902,000 TJ（▲23.3 million kL）※2：Compared with those of FY2012. Calculation based on calorie basis.
As for electricity, primary energy (power generation efficiency is taken into account) is used.

In comparison with the FY2012 primary energy supply (including transportation), inenergy consumption at least about 3.5% reduction will be achieved (as of FY2030).
So by diffusion of heat pump equipment that is to say focusing in heat usage sector,
there is significant energy conservation which could be achievable.

The effect to the FY2012 domestic final energy consumption ※3 is calculated as follows,
as a result more than 8% reduction (as of FY2030) would be achieved in comparison withfinal energy consumption of the private and industrial sector.
Effect toward final energy consumption
with primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps

FY2020

FY2030FY2040Residential▲7.2%▲19.2%▲24.6%

Commercial

▲2.5%

▲6.8%

▲8.8%

Industrial(Including agriculture)

▲2.9%

▲5.1%

▲5.4%

Total of private and industrial

▲3.6%

▲8.2%

▲9.8%

Total(Including transportation)▲2.8%▲6.3%▲7.6%※3：Compared with those of FY2012. Calculation based on calorie basis.
As for electricity, secondary energy (1kWh=3.6MJ) is used.

○ Breakdown of primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion ofheat pumps (by fiscal year for each application)
In comparison with the reference year (FY2012), the breakdown of primary energy saving
effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps by sectors (residential, commercial,industrial and agricultural sectors) and by applications (hot water supply, spaceheating / cooling, heating, etc.) is as mentioned below:
Breakdown of primary energy saving effects by increasing diffusion of heat pumps
by sectors and by applications comparison with FY2012 (Units: TJ/year)
FY2020
FY2030FY2040127,937

338,936455,393

Hot water supply

57,230145,194

188,300

Air conditioner

70,707

193,742

267,093

64,889174,495

231,891

Hot water supply

3,016

46,37082,001

Air conditioner (High efficiency)

61,873

128,125

149,890

Central49,296

98,660110,901

VRF

12,577

29,46538,98989,532

182,668

213,024For space heating / cooling

35,956

62,66071,961For heating

14,541

29,121

36,460For low temperature drying

22,703

41,84548,280For high temperature use

16,33349,04256,324

396

1,190

1,362

282,754697,289

901,670

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

Agricultural
Total

Though the periods when primary energy saving effects become obvious are different,
depending on the differences in the years when the applicable heat pump equipment
are brought to the market as well as their diffusion curves, which vary by sectors
or applications, if the heat pump equipment get more widely adopted as anticipated,a significant energy conservation would be achievable.
In this estimation, major items changed from the study in the previous years are as
follows:
・

Reference year has been changed to FY2012.
(Reduction from FY2012 has been calculated.)・The forecast period has been extended to FY2040.

・

Diffusion curves have been changed with reflecting the most recent introduction
trend of heat pump equipment.

・

Calculation is performed with taking into account the trend of efficiency thatincorporates the most recent efficiency of heat pump equipment.
(For some equipment, the efficiency has been changed to the efficiency in acertain period such as Annual Performance Factor (APF), annual heat retention
efficiency of hot water, etc.)

・Regarding household air conditioners and multi-split type air conditioners forbuildings, an energy-saving effect through enhanced efficiency by replacing theexisting heat pump equipment with the latest type equipment is added.

As for other details such as anticipated demand, setting of heat pump diffusion rates,
calculation, etc., please refer to the attachment below:
Attachment: Survey on Heat Pump Diffusion ForecastContact;Heat Pump & Thermal Storage Technology Center of Japan
Hulic Kakigaracho BLDG 6F 1-28-5 Nihonbashi Kakigara-cho Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103-0014, Japan
Tel: +81-3-5643-2404 Fax: +81-3-5641-4501