BURKINA FASO
Table 1

2023

Population, million

23.3

GDP, current US$ billion

22.9

GDP per capita, current US$984.0

International poverty rate ($2.15)

a25.3
a60.7

a88.1

Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65)
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85)
Gini index

a37.4

School enrollment, primary (% gross)

b82.4

b59.3

Total GHG emissions (mtCO2e)67.6

Life expectancy at birth, years

Source: WDI, Macro Poverty Outlook, and official data.
a/ Most recent value (2021), 2017 PPPs.
b/ WDI for School enrollment (2022); Life expectancy(2021).

GDP growth is estimated at 3.2 percent(0.5 percent per capita) in 2023, supported by services, while mining washampered by insecurity. Average inflation subsided to 0.7 percent, facilitatinga small decrease in the extreme poverty
rate to 25.9 percent. The growth outlook is expected to remain constrainedby insecurity and subject to downside
risks, including political instability, increasing financing costs, impacts of theannounced ECOWAS withdrawal, andclimate-related shocks.

Key conditions andchallengesInsecurity and political instability remain
the most critical growth constraints. The
two coups in 2022 triggered a sharp reduction in external development financing
while negatively affecting private investment. Insecurity has disrupted industrial
mining (gold), which accounted for 77 percent of exports, 16 percent of GDP, and 22
percent of government revenues in 2023.
Displacement of local populations weakens
agricultural output, which employs over 90
percent of the poor and is already highly vulnerable to climate shocks, aggravating foodinsecurity. In 2023 there has been a doublingof recorded security-related deaths to 8,494.
In September 2023, Burkina Faso, Mali, andNiger formed the “Alliance of Sahel States”(AES) – a security and military pact with political and economic aims. On January 28,
2024, in a joint communiqué, the three countries announced their ‘immediate’ withdrawal from ECOWAS. According to the revised ECOWAS Treaty, a notification periodof one year is required to leave ECOWAS.
These developments have increased political and policy uncertainty, including thetimetable for elections in Burkina Faso.

Recent developments
In 2023, the economy is estimated tohave grown by 3.2 percent (0.6 percent

per capita), up from 1.8 percent in 2022.
The services sector, accounting for 48 percent of GDP, remained the main growth
driver, fueled by an expansion of the public sector. Agricultural sector growth washindered by security challenges, which restricted access to rural areas. Secondary
sector growth was kept positive only by
manufacturing and construction, whilegold production dropped further due toinsecurity despite high international goldprices. On the demand side, private consumption was the main growth driver, bolstered by low inflation. In contrast, investment is expected to stagnate given highpublic investment in 2022 and uncertainties in the mining sector. Favorable termsof trade with an increase in gold prices
coupled with a decrease in energy prices
helped narrow the current account deficit
to 4.9 percent of GDP in 2023.
After surging to a record high of 14.1 percent
in 2022, inflation fell to 0.7 percent in 2023
with declines in local product prices, particularly for cereals, flour, and fresh vegetables. As a result, the extreme poverty rate,
which was rising through 2022, has decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 25.9 percent in 2023. However, the humanitarian situation remains very critical, with around 2
million internally displaced persons, andan estimated 2.3 million facing severe foodinsecurity as of December 2023.
To counter inflation across WAEMU countries, the Central Bank of West African
States (BCEAO) raised policy interest
rates by a cumulative 150 basis points
since mid-2022 to 3.5 percent for liquidity
calls and 5.5 percent for the marginal
lending facility. However, inflation in theFIGURE 1 Burkina Faso / Real GDP growth and contributions
to real GDP growth

FIGURE 2 Burkina Faso / Actual and projected poverty
rates and real GDP per capita

Percent, percentage points
15Poverty rate (%)

1050-5-102021
2022
Gov. cons.
Private cons.
GDP

2023
2024
Exports
Imports

2025
2026
GFCF
Statistical disc.

500000904500008040000070

35000060

30000050

25000040

2000003015000020

1000001050000002009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Source: World Bank.

International poverty rate

Lower middle-income pov. rate

Upper middle-income pov. rate

Real GDP pc

Source: World Bank. Notes: see Table 2.

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region (3.7 percent in 2023) was still
above the 1-3 percent target range andforeign exchange reserves have been on a
downward trend, estimated at 3.5 monthsof imports at end-2023, down from
4.3 months at end-2022.
The country started fiscal consolidationin 2023 with the deficit falling to 6.4
percent of GDP – 1.2 percent lower
than 2022 (excluding a one-time inclusion of all accumulated securitized debt
in 2022). The consolidation was expenditure-driven, through a scaling back of
capital investment and subsidies (helpedby lower international oil prices), while
military and humanitarian spending remained high. As bilateral donor grants
declined, efforts were made to sustain
domestic revenue mobilization. With astill elevated fiscal deficit, public debt
is estimated to have crossed the 60
percent of GDP mark in 2023. The
share of expensive regional financing
is increasing; in February 2024, Burkina Faso’s average yields on the regional bond market were 8 percent
for 6-month T-bills and 9.6 percent for

3-year T-bonds. The risk of external
debt distress remains moderate.

OutlookThe outlook hinges on the security situation. If the situation does not deteriorate
further, growth could slowly pick up andaverage 4 percent (1.5 percent per capita)
over 2024-26, driven by recovering mining
and agricultural production and service
sector growth. This includes the expected
impacts of an orderly ECOWAS withdrawal: lower trade with non-WAEMU ECOWAS states, higher investors’ risk premia,
and increased regional financing costs.
If the government continues its fiscal consolidation path, the fiscal deficit is expected to gradually decline towards the WAEMU ceiling of 3 percent of GDP. Public
debt as a share of GDP is forecast to riseat least until 2025, driven by high interest
rates on domestic debt.
Poverty is expected to remain relatively
unchanged over the medium term. WhileTABLE 2 Burkina Faso / Macro poverty outlook indicators

inflation has come down dramatically andis expected to remain below 3 percent overthe medium term, accelerating poverty reductions will require higher growth percapita, particularly in agriculture, which
employs 71 percent of the poor.
The outlook remains subject to significant
downside risks, including a deteriorationin the security situation, political instability, climatic shocks, terms of trade shocks,
and the withdrawal from ECOWAS. An
unnegotiated ECOWAS withdrawal withdisruptions to transport, transit, and freemovement of goods, services, capital, andlabor could exacerbate negative impacts
due to spillovers onto WAEMU trade. The
BCEAO may need to continue monetary
tightening in 2024 to bring inflation undercontrol and in the context of increased
risks from the withdrawal of Niger, Mali,and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS. A further increase in the cost of financing on theregional market for Burkina Faso could require further cuts in public expenditure,and especially investment, at the sametime as defense and security expenditures
pressures mount.

(annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)

Real GDP growth, at constant market prices
Private consumption
Government consumption
Gross fixed capital investment
Exports, goods and services
Imports, goods and services

2021
6.9
3.4
6.6
34.8
6.5
15.5

2022
1.8
4.3
5.2
6.4
-2.8
8.2

2023e
3.2
3.1
4.5
0.7
-2.1
-1.9

2024f
3.7
3.4
5.4
4.0
3.0
3.8

2025f
3.8
3.5
3.9
4.4
3.1
3.2

2026f
4.2
3.6
3.8
5.4
3.4
3.3

Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices
Agriculture
Industry
Services

6.9
-4.1
11.0
10.3

1.8
5.7
-8.2
6.0

3.2
2.3
0.3
5.2

3.7
4.5
2.8
3.7

3.8
4.3
3.4
3.8

4.2
4.3
3.9
4.3

Inflation (consumer price index)

3.9

14.1

0.7

2.8

2.5

2.2

Current account balance (% of GDP)Net foreign direct investment inflow (% of GDP)

0.4
0.5

-6.2
0.3

-4.9
0.3

-4.2
0.4

-4.1
0.5

-3.7
0.4

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Revenues (% of GDP)
Debt (% of GDP)
Primary balance (% of GDP)

-7.5
20.2
55.4
-6.0

-10.6
21.6
58.1
-8.5

-6.4
21.3
61.4
-4.3

-5.6
21.3
63.3
-3.0

-4.7
21.2
65.4
-1.9

-4.4
21.2
63.2
-1.5

25.3
60.7
88.1

26.5
62.4
88.7

25.9
61.4
88.3

25.4
61.1
88.1

25.0
60.5
87.8

24.4
59.7
87.3

6.0
11.1

4.6
11.4

5.0
11.8

5.1
12.3

5.1
12.7

4.8
13.2

a,b

International poverty rate ($2.15 in 2017 PPP)a,b
Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65 in 2017 PPP)a,b
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85 in 2017 PPP)
GHG emissions growth (mtCO2e)
Energy related GHG emissions (% of total)

Source: World Bank, Poverty & Equity and Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practices. Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.
Notes: e = estimate, f = forecast.
a/ Calculations based on 2021-EHCVM. Actual data: 2021. Nowcast: 2022-2023. Forecasts are from 2024 to 2026.
b/ Projections using microsimulation methodology.

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