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IEEJ-KAPSARC Joint Seminar 2017

Pragmatic Approach to Address Climate Change|
The Role of Technologies with a case ofCarbon Free Hydrogen
9 February 2017 TokyoYukari Yamashita
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited(C) 2017 IEEJ, All rights reservedPragmatic Approach

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Paris Agreement : A step towards global action❖ Evaluation of Paris Agreement

Challenges

Over 180 countries,
including China andIndia, agreed to takeactions using bottomup approach.
Global GHG emissions
will increase from thecurrent level.

5040
Gt CO2Good!!
❖ GHGs emissions

30
201001990

2010

2030

2050

INDC
50% Reduct ion by 2050
Ref erence
Advanced Technologies
Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016
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Global Actions will Reduce CO2 by 3.8% by 2050 from current level❖ Changes in primary energy consumption❖ CO2 emissions and reduction

20Energy
efficiency

50Biofuel12Solar, wind, etc.

40

13.7 Gt
Nuclear

Gt14∆Coal∆Oil∆Nat ural gas∆Nuclear∆Renew ables

Gt oe16∆Coal∆Oil∆Nat ural gas∆Nuclear∆Renew ables

18

Fuel switching30

Reference20

AdvancedTechnologies

102014

Ref erence,
2040

AdvancedTechnologies,
2040

IEA Bridge
Scenario

1019902010

2030

2050

50% Reduction
by 2050<Note>

Reference Scenario: reflects past trends as well as energy and environment policies that have been introduced so far.
Advanced Technologies Scenario (ATS) : promotes energy conservation and low-carbon technologies for maximum impacts.
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Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016

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Pragmatic/Practical Approach to address Climate Change

IEEJ’s understanding is as follows;
1) Economic growth and measures to cope with Climate Change need tobe compatible with each other<note> IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4, WGⅢ, Ch.1)
Balancing between “not enough measures” (and resulting damage including food securityand ecosystems) and “too much measures” (that may threaten sustainable development).

2) Uncertainty around Climate Science need to be fully considered3) One way to look is to minimize the total cost (Mitigation + Adaptation +Damage) rather than uniquely reducing the damage through mitigation.
4) The transfer of state of the art technologies to developing countries isimportant. It, of course, would require appropriate financial schemes.
5) New technologies are essential to further reduce GHG emissions ataffordable cost .
6) Innovation can be achieved through international collaboration.
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Mitigation vs. Adaptation Costs in 2100
16

2014 USD trillion/year

2100
14Total (A+B)
1210Damage +adaptation cost (B)86
4Mitigation costincreases rapidly
beyond certain
point

2Mitigation cost (A)0-2
Unauthorized reproduction prohibited

0%Source:
IEEJ,
Worldreserved
Energy Outlook 2015
(C) 2017
IEEJ,Asia/All rights

20%

40%

60%

80%

Reduction from the Reference Scenario

5IEEJ: February 2017 © IEEJ2017

Rule for Ultra Long-term: Reduce the Total Cost
❖ Mitigation + Adaptation + Damage = Total cost ❖ Image of total cost for each path
Mitigation

Typical measures are GHG emissions
reduction via energy efficiency and non-fossil
energy use.
Includes reduction of GHG release to theatmosphere via CCS.
These measures mitigate climate change.
Tot al cost

Adaptation

Temperature rise may cause sea-level rise,
agricultural crop drought, disease pandemic,etc.
Adaptation includes counter measures suchas building banks/reservoir, agriculturalresearch and disease preventive actions.

Mit igat ion
Adapt at ion
DamagePat h 1
Pat h 2
Too small ReasonableBig
MediumBig
MediumPat h 3Too big
Small
Small

Mit igat ion
Adapt at ion
DamageDamageIf mitigation and adaptation cannot reducethe climate change effects enough to stop
sea-level rise, draught and pandemics,
damage will take place.

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Pragmatic Approach: Going Beyond “Simply Mitigation”❖ In the ultra long-term paths

CO2 emissions

CO2 concentration

(Gt)

(ppm)

Temperature rise

Total cost(°C)($2015 billion/year)
200

80

800

460

600

3150
100
50

20200

1020002050
2100
Ref erence-eq

0020002150
2000
Advanced Technologies

2150

Opt imum Cost [Tech Innovat ion]

02150
Opt imum Cost [St andard]50%Reduction by 2050

2Optimum Cost [Standard]

400

Reference-eq

40

50% Reduct ion by 2050

Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016
Note: Estimated with climate sensitivity set as 3°C. If CS is 2.5°C, then temperature will rise by 3.7°C, 2.5°C and 1.4°C, respectively for the three cases, namely
Reference Case equivalent, Optimum Cost with innovation and 50% Reduction by 2050 Cases, by 2150.
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Importance of Technology Development for Ultra Long Term

NuclearFusionSpace
Photovoltaic(SPS)
HydrogenProduction& Usage
CO2Sequestration& Usage(CCU)
Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016
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8The role of Hydrogen

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Hydrogen: An Option for Countries Without CCS Potential

Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016
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Hydrogen : There is No Royal Road, but There is A Road

❖ CO2 emissions and reduction
5050
CCS
CCS

40

40

Hydrogen

GtGt

Ref erence30

Ref erence

30

Advanced
Technologies
20101990

AdvancedTechnologies
+ CCS
2010

2030

2050

AdvancedTechnologies

20102010

Advanced
Technologies+ Hydrogen
2030

2050

Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016
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Hydrogen Will Become an Option Depending on Cost Cut❖ In the ultra long-term paths
CO2 emissions

CO2 concentration

Temperature rise

80

800

4606003404002202001000(Gt)

20002050

(°C)

(ppm)

2100

Reference-eq

2150

2000

2050

Optimum cost

2100

2150

20002050

Advanced
Technologies +Hydrogen

2100

2150

50% reduction by2050

Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016
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Note: “Advanced Technologies + Hydrogen” means the “Higher Hydrogen Scenario” in the body.

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Main Use of Hydrogen: Power Generation and Automobile❖ Power generation mix

100%

40

13%
29%

30PWh❖ New passenger car sales

14%

2%

Hydrogen13%

80%
Thermalw it h CCS

FCV
60%

EV

Thermal

20

PHEV

40%
Renew ables
10Nuclear

HEV
NGV

20%

ICV
Advanced
Technologies+ Hydrogen

0%
Advanced
Technologies+ CCS

Advanced
Technologies+ Hydrogen

AdvancedTechnologies
+ CCS

0

Source: IEEJ, Asia/ World Energy Outlook 2016
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Hydrogen: An option for countries without CCS potential❖ Hydrogen consumption[Advanced Technologies + Hydrogen, 2050]

Use

For pow er generat ion in hydrogen
import ing regions

For transport/industry in exporting regions

For transport/industry in importing regions❖ Supply and demand of hydrogen[Advanced Technologies + Hydrogen, 2050]

China
ASEAN8India
Lat in America
EuropeJapan
Nort h America
MENAAust ralia
0500

1,000

1,500

GNm 3Region
Consumpt ion
Total consumption: 3,240 GNm3

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Product ion

Note: Net export/import is defined as the difference in consumption and production

13IEEJ: February 2017 © IEEJ2017

Conclusion
１．

Paris agreement is a success. But only a success towards a greater success.

2.

We need to make further efforts to reduce GHG emissions.

3.

The important thing, however, is to take a pragmatic/practical approach given
the need for compatibility between economic growth and measures toaddress Climate Change. Moreover, the huge uncertainty surrounding
Climate Science should be resolved.

4.

The major point of this approach is to minimize the total cost ofdamage , mitigation and adaptation, not only mitigation.

5.

Although a 50% reduction of GHG by 2050 is unlikely to be realized, thedevelopment of innovation technologies is imperative, including
production of carbon free hydrogen from fossil fuels , in order tomaximize the reduction of GHG emissions in the long run.

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Thank you very much for your attention.

Asia/WorldEnergyOutlook
2016

IEEJ’s Asia/World Energy Outlook 2016
Is available at : http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/whatsnew/424.html (English)
and at : http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/whatsnew_op/161021teireiken.html (Japanese)
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