CÔTE D'IVOIRE
Table 1

2023

Population, million

28.9GDP, current US$ billion

81.3

GDP per capita, current US$2815.2

International poverty rate ($2.15)

a9.7
a38.4

a76.4

Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65)
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85)
Gini index

a35.3

School enrollment, primary (% gross)

b94.6

b58.6

Total GHG emissions (mtCO2e)55.0Life expectancy at birth, years

Source: WDI, Macro Poverty Outlook, and official data.
a/ Most recent value (2021), 2017 PPPs.
b/ WDI for School enrollment (2022); Life expectancy(2021).

Amid global and regional turbulence andtight financial conditions, economic
growth has moderated slightly to 6.4 percent in 2023, while inflation remains elevated at 4.4 percent, driving a small increase in extreme poverty. Macroeconomic imbalances have eased owing to fiscal
consolidation and improved terms oftrade. Revenue-based fiscal consolidation
continues as terms of trade improve,strengthening debt sustainability. Medium-term structural and climate transition reforms should help sustain growtharound potential.

Key conditions andchallenges
The Ivorian economy demonstrated remarkable resilience against overlapping
global and regional crises, posting 7-percent
average growth (5.5 percent in per capita)
over 2021-2022, albeit short of pre-pandemic
performance. Nonetheless, increasing uncertaintyhasunderscoredtheneedforstructural reforms and increasing fiscal space tomovetowardstheobjectiveofdoublingGDP
per capita between 2020 and 2030. Creating
better-paid jobs and promoting more inclusive growth would require improving human capital, leveraging private investment,
and reducing allocative inefficiencies.
Short-term headwinds are high. Russia’sinvasion of Ukraine has fueled commodity
price volatility and macro-fiscal imbalances. Heightened market uncertainties,
tight monetary policy, and depreciated exchange rates have increased external anddomestic debt costs, requiring active debt
management and continued focus on domestic revenue mobilization. Global andregional insecurity may aggravate economic and fiscal pressures, with the recently announced withdrawal of three Sahelcountries from ECOWAS potentially affecting trade, market confidence, investment
flows, and borrowing costs. Increasing impact from climate change could cloud theoutlook. Upside risks rest on the rollout of
the national development plan, which requires adequate financing through greaterpublic and private investment.

Recent developments
Growth momentum slowed as geopoliticaltensions persisted, and financial conditions
tightened. Real GDP growth is estimated at
6.4 percent in 2023 (3.8 percent per capita)
down from 6.9 percent in 2022, driven bystrong public and private investment, fueled by the African Cup of Nations preparation. Conversely, private consumption softened, reflecting higher domestic fuel andelectricity tariffs (about +10 percent in January 2024) as the government has rolled backcrisis-related subsidies. Industry, including
construction, and services, supported supply-side growth, albeit at a slower pace, contributing 1.1 and 4.1 percentage points to2023 growth, respectively. Export-oriented
agriculture underperformed due to poor
weather, with output falling for cocoa(-10.4 percent), coffee and cottonseed(around - 60 percent).
Inflation averaged 4.4 percent in 2023, downfrom 5.2 percent in 2022, as increasing energy and transport inflation partially offset
slower food inflation. Core inflation was 3.2percent, still above the central bank's 2 percent target and 1-3 percent band, reflecting
persistent effects of global supply chain disruptions and exchange rate depreciation. To
counter inflation across WAEMU countries,
the Central Bank of West African States(BCEAO) raised policy interest rates by a cumulative 150 basis points since mid-2022 to
3.5 percent for liquidity calls and 5.5 percent
for the marginal lending facility. However,inflation in the region (3.7 percent in 2023)
was still above the 1-3 percent target range

FIGURE 1 Côte d'Ivoire / Real GDP growth and contributions
to real GDP growth

FIGURE 2 Côte d'Ivoire / Actual and projected poverty
rates and real GDP per capita

Percent of GDP
20

Poverty rate (%)

15
10Real GDP per capita (constant million LCU)

100

1.8

90

1.6

80

1.4

70

1.2

60

5

1.0

50

00.8

40

0.6

30-5-1020152017

Gov. cons.
Inventories
Statistical disc.

2019

2021

Exports
Private cons.
GDP2023

2025

200.4

100.2

00.0
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

GFCF
Imports

Source: World Bank.

International poverty rate

Lower middle-income pov. rate

Upper middle-income pov. rate

Real GDP pc

Source: World Bank. Notes: see Table 2.

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and foreign exchange reserves have been on
a downward trend, estimated at 3.5 monthsof imports at end-2023, down from
4.3 months at end-2022.
Extreme poverty (less than $2.15 a day percapita at PPP 2017) is likely to reach 10.1
percent in 2023, a 0.4 percentage points increase from 2021. Expanding industry andservices, which employ 13.3 and 40.9 percent of the workforce, respectively, wouldput downward pressure on poverty rates.
However, agriculture (employing 45.8 percent of the workforce, 76.6 percent of rural
workers, and 70.2 percent of the poor) is
likely to slow in 2023 and along with higher food prices, would offset the impacts ofgrowth in industry and services.
Frontloaded tax measures and phase-out ofcrisis-related energy and food subsidies
lowered the fiscal deficit to an estimated 5.2
percent of GDP in 2023 from 6.5 percent in2022. Revenues increased by 1.3 ppt of GDP
y/y in the first eleven months of 2023 compared to 2022, primarily on higher tax revenues. Expenditure was contained as faster
capital expenditures and interest payments
were balanced by cuts in recurring expenditures. Two-thirds of the fiscal deficit wascovered by short-term issuances on the regional market and one-third by externalloans and budget support, keeping public

debt at around 60 percent of GDP. Substantial gains in terms of trade almost
closed the large trade deficit in 2023 which,combined with a lower fiscal deficit, narrowed the CAD to a forecast 5.8 percent of
GDP from 7.5 percent in 2022.

Outlook
Prudent macroeconomic policies, structural and climate-related reforms should
sustain robust growth in the short andthe medium term, albeit below pre-pandemic levels, amid persistent adverse
global and regional geopolitical trends.
Growth should rebound to 6.6 percent in
2024 (4.0 percent per capita), boosted by
the hosting in Q1 of the African Cup of
Nations and the start-up of the first operating phases of new oil and gas fields,
and average 6.5 percent in 2025-26. Sustained investment in network infrastructure, particularly in the digital and transport sectors, and higher oil extraction
should boost business confidence and increase productivity. Value chain development could increase agricultural productivity and bolster manufacturing, sustaining growth potential. Inflation should fall

TABLE 2 Côte d'Ivoire / Macro poverty outlook indicators

within the WAEMU’s 1-3 percent targetband by 2025.
Continued progress on domestic revenue
mobilization would sustain the realignment to the 3 percent regional fiscal deficit
target by 2025, stabilizing debt at around58 percent of GDP, and creating headroom
for sustained priority social and infrastructure spending above pre-pandemic levels.
The recent $2.6b Eurobond issuanceshould help tame short-term liquidity vulnerabilities and shore up external reserves.
Improving terms of trade and private sector-led export diversification should boost
the trade balance and, alongside the improved fiscal stance, narrow the CAD.
Downside risks include heightened global and regional tensions, notably an escalation of the Middle East crisis anduncertainties over the withdrawal of theSahel economies from ECOWAS, which
could dampen market sentiment, stuntinflation reduction, tighten financing conditions, exacerbate debt vulnerabilities,
and squeeze the already low foreign exchange reserves. Extreme poverty should
stabilize at 10.2 percent in 2024, reflecting
strong growth, but held back by persistent post-pandemic inflation. Poverty reduction will resume in 2025, sustained bygrowth and abated inflation.

(annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)

Real GDP growth, at constant market prices
Private consumption
Government consumption
Gross fixed capital investment
Exports, goods and services
Imports, goods and services

2021
7.1
5.3
6.2
14.9
16.9
15.9

2022
6.9
5.1
10.6
14.6
4.9
1.3

2023e
6.4
2.6
9.0
14.9
8.9
10.5

2024f
6.6
3.8
7.4
14.6
6.0
9.5

2025f
6.5
4.3
7.1
10.5
6.5
7.0

2026f
6.5
4.3
7.1
9.9
7.0
6.7

Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices
Agriculture
Industry
Services

6.1
7.3
4.9
6.2

7.3
4.7
8.1
7.9

6.2
4.0
5.8
7.2

6.6
4.3
6.2
7.5

6.5
4.4
6.5
7.26.5
4.8
6.6
7.0

Inflation (consumer price index)

4.2

5.2

4.4

3.6

3.0

2.0

Current account balance (% of GDP)Net foreign direct investment inflow (% of GDP)

-4.5
1.5

-7.5
1.3

-5.8
1.6

-4.0
2.2

-3.4
1.9

-3.3
1.7

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Revenues (% of GDP)
Debt (% of GDP)
Primary balance (% of GDP)

-4.8
15.7
51.4
-2.9

-6.6
14.9
56.5
-4.4

-5.2
16.2
58.0
-2.8

-4.0
16.8
58.2
-1.7

-3.0
17.2
58.0
-0.6

-3.0
17.556.9
-0.7

9.7
38.4
76.4

9.8
38.3
76.1

10.1
38.1
76.0

10.2
37.6
75.1

10.0
36.7
74.1

9.6
35.4
72.8

2.7
25.0

1.5
25.3

0.6
25.0

0.6
24.5

0.8
24.2

1.7
24.4

a,b

International poverty rate ($2.15 in 2017 PPP)a,b
Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65 in 2017 PPP)a,b
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85 in 2017 PPP)
GHG emissions growth (mtCO2e)
Energy related GHG emissions (% of total)

Source: World Bank, Poverty & Equity and Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practices. Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.
Notes: e = estimate, f = forecast.
a/ Calculations based on 2021-EHCVM. Actual data: 2021. Nowcast: 2022-2023. Forecasts are from 2024 to 2026.
b/ Projections using microsimulation methodology.

MPO2Apr 24