JISF Long-term vision
for climate change mitigation

September, 2019 revised
Japan Iron and Steel Federation

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Background
In November 2014, the Japan Iron and Steel Federation announced the"Commitment to a Low Carbon Society Phase II" with the target year of2030. This plan is also reflected in Japan's NDC (2030 target) based on the
Paris Agreement, and each member of the Japan Iron and SteelFederation is making constant efforts to achieve it.
The Paris Agreement invites all Parties to formulate and submit by 2020 a“long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies” toachieve the long-term goal (2DS target). Japanese government has set up
the "advisory committee to establish the “national long-term development
strategies based on the Paris agreement”.
In response to such domestic and international movements, in addition tothe ongoing efforts to achieve the "Commitment to a Low Carbon Society
Phase II", the Japan Iron and Steel Federation has decided to formulate
the “long term vision for climate change mitigation” for 2030 and beyond,which aims to realize the “zero-carbon STEEL”.

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1Preparation Policy and Framework[Preparation Policy]
 The scope is from 2030 to 2100
 It assumes global actions
 It is to offer a direction towards achieving Paris Agreement longterm goal It is to be in line with the ongoing “Commitment to a Low Carbon
Society”
 It is to be consistent with the national project being executed(COURSE50 etc.)[Framework]
Part 1: Forecast of future steel demand and supply
Part 2: Long-term climate change mitigation scenarios
Part 3: Challenges of JISF for long-term climate change mitigation
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Part 1:
Forecast of Future Steel Demandand Supply

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3

SDGs and Paris Agreement

Paris Agreement
The Japan Iron & Steel Federation

Factors promoting
steel demand© 2019 The Japan Iron & Steel Federation, All Rights Reserved.

Performance Trend of Steel Stock in JapanThe future supply and demand of steel was estimated from the relationship between past economic
growth and steel stock at a macro level. For this purpose, we analyzed the past trend of Japan’s
performance, which is backed by reliable data, and aligned the results with those from overseas
researches.
The per capita steel stock in 1958 was only 1 t/person, but after going through the high economic
growth period in the 1960's, it reached 4 t/person in 1973. 15 years later (1988) it reached
7t/person, and in another 15 years (2003), it reached 10 t/person. During this time, the rate of steel
accumulation has been +0.2t/person/year. After that, with the economic maturity of society, theaccumulation of steel has been moderate (+0.06t/person/year). The total amount of current iron andsteel stock is 1.36 billion t (FY 2015), which is 10.7 t/person.
15.0

4800

steel stock (100 million ton)steel stock per capita (t/person)
GDP per capita (right axis, thousand JPY/person)

10.0

10.0

13.6
10.7

3600
3000

7.0
5.0

2400
1800

4.0

1200

1.0

600

0.2t/person/year

0.2t/person/year

0.2t/person/year

0.06t/oerson/year

0

1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014

0.0

4200

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5Performance Trend of Steel Stock in the World
There is a certain correlation between economic growth and the amount of steel stock per capita,
and as the population increases, the total stock amount expands. The steel stocks in developed
countries are estimated to be in the range of 8 to 12 t/person, and it is estimated that the steel stock
will reach 10 tons per person in China in the first half of this century and in India during this century.

Transition of steel stock per capita

Relationship between GDP per capita and steel stock
Muller, et.al, “Patterns of Iron Use in Societal Evolution”,
Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45
The Japan Iron & Steel Federation“Sustainable steel: at the core of a green economy”, World
Steel Association, 2012

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Assumptions for Steel Stock Estimation[Calculation assumptions]a) Steel stock per capita
2015：4.0t/person (actual data)
2050：7.0t/person (assumed)
2100：10.0t/person (assumed)

World Population (billion) *Per Capita (t/person)
Steel Stock
total (billion ton)b) Population
World Population Prospects2017, UN

2015
7.38
4.0
29.4

2050
9.77
7.0
68.2

2100
11.18
10.0
111.8

c) Diffusion and loss
0.1% of the total steel stock was assumed to be diffused or lost.

d) The rate of scrap generationd-1) internal scrap: 12.5% of total crude steel production (2015 actual data)d-2) manufacturing scrap: 9.3% of total steel products shipped out (2015 actual data)d-3) end-of-life scrap: assumed to increase gradually from 0.8% of total steel stock in 2015 (actual data) →1.5% in 2050→ 2.0% in 2100.
e) Yield ratio of crude steel to iron source
Yield ratio of crude steel to iron source was set as 91% (2015 actual data) for both pig iron and scrap
scrap generation rate （％）

scrap generation (billion ton)production (billion ton)steel stock

loss rateworld pop.

crude steel

pig iron
DRI

total

internal

promptend-of-life

internal/
crude steel

prompt/products

EoL/
steel stock

total(billion ton)

per capita(t/person)（ ％）(billion)

2015

1.62

1.22

0.56

0.2

0.13

0.22

12.5

9.3

0.8

29.4

4

0.1

7.38

2020

1.85

1.35

0.68

0.23

0.15

0.3

12.5

9.3

0.9

34.8

4.5

0.1

7.8

2030

2.1

1.38

0.92

0.26

0.17

0.49

12.5

9.3

1.1

46.2

5.4

0.1

8.55

2050

2.68

1.4

1.55

0.34

0.22

0.99

12.5

9.3

1.5

68.2

7

0.1

9.77

2100

3.79

1.2

2.97

0.47

0.31

2.19

12.5

9.3

2

111.8

10

0.1

11.18

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Steel Demand and Supply in the Future[crude steel production] increase as the steel demand
increases[scrap] its use increases mainly as a result of increased
generation of end-of-life scrap due to expansion of theamount of total steel stock.
[pig iron production] As scrap alone can not meet steel
demand and production from the natural resource route is
essential for the expansion of steel stock, almost the samelevel of pig iron production as currently required will be
required at the end of this century(billion ton)A m ount of steelin finalproducts
C rude steelproduction
P ig iron production
S crap consum ption

2015
1.29
1.62
1.22
0.56

2050
2.13
2.68
1.4
1.55

2100
3.01
3.79
1.2
2.97

2100
120

11.2

2050

12.0

112

100

10.0
9.8 world population (right axis, billion)

80

2015
7.4

68 total stock (left axis, billion t)

60

40

4.0
crude steel production (right axis, billion t) 2.68

20

8.0

stock per capita (right axis) 7.0

29
1.62
1.22
0.56

scrap generation (right axis, billion t) 1.55

6.0
3.79 4.0
2.97
pig iron (right axis, billion t) 1.20

2.0

1.40
0.0

2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
2061
2063
2065
2067
2069
2071
2073
2075
2077
2079
2081
2083
2085
2087
2089
2091
2093
2095
2097
2099

0

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Part 2:Long-term Climate Change Mitigation
Scenarios for Steel Industry

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Scenarios
BAU (Business as Usual) scenario
Only Scrap ratio in iron source increases due to increase in scrap generation while
technical level stays at the current status.

BAT (Best Available Technologies) maximum introduction scenario
Maximize the diffusion of existing advanced energy saving technologies (CDQ,TRT etc.)
to the world by 2050. IEA ETP 2014 assumes that the reduction potential byinternational diffusion of BAT is 21%.

Innovative technologies maximum Introduction scenario
The innovative technologies currently being developed (COURSE50: hydrogenreduction portion, ferro coke, etc) will be introduced at the maximum level from 2030 to
2050.

Super innovative technologies development scenario
With the introduction of super innovation technologies (hydrogen-reduction, CCS, CCUetc.) that are not yet in place and the achievement of zero emission of the grid power
supply, it is assumed that "zero-carbon STEEL" will be realized in 2100.

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CO2 Emissions
CO2 emission intensity
t-CO2/t-crude steel
2.50
2.00

1.97

1.84

BAU scenario
BAT max introduction scenario
Innovative technologies max introduction scenario
Super innovative technologies development scenario
1.67

1.69

1.50

1.32
super innovative technologies- H2 reduction- CCS, CCU- Zero-emission electricity

1.00

0.50

1.23
0.98
0.61

low level case

1.05
0.97

mid level case

0.25

0.00
2015

1.40

high level case

ZERO
2030

2050

2100

Total CO2 emission

billion t-CO2
6.0

5.3

5.0

4.5
3.9

4.0

3.2
3.0

4.0
3.7

3.5

3.5

3.3

2.0

2.6
1.6

1.0

0.7

low level case
mid level casesuper innovative technologies- H2 reduction- CCS, CCU- Zero-emission electricity

high level case

0.0
2015
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ZERO
2030

2050

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2100

11

Rough Estimations on hydrogen-reduction
1/2Fe2O3 + 3/2H2 + 48kJ → Fe + 3/2H2O
Requirement of hydrogen for 1 ton of pig-ironmaking
reduction：601Nm3＋compensation for endothermic reaction：67Nm3＋heat to make molten iron of 1600℃：85Nm3＝ 753Nm3/ton of (theoretical) ⇒ around 1000Nm3/ton with assuming process efficiency of 75%

Quantitative aspects

The amount of hydrogen required for producing pig iron in hydrogenreduction in 2100: 1.2 trillion Nm3/year.

Economic aspects
Estimation of hydrogen price equivalent for carbon reduction iron-making;Assuming $200/t-coal and 700kg-coal/pig-iron, coal cost is $140/t-pig iron
Assuming 55% of thermic value of coal is consumed for reduction(another 45% becomes by-product gases), the cost of reducing agent is$77/t-pig iron ($140/t-pig iron x 0.55).
The equivalent cost of hydrogen ($77/t-pig iron / 1000Nm3-H2/t-pig iron)

15.4

Hydrogen price ￠/Nm3

Assuming 4.5kWH/Nm3-H2 production, 5.4 trillion kWH is needed forhydrogen production and more for transportation, liquefaction, storage
etc.

10

7.7

260
80
Coal price band after 2010

3

100

200
300
Coal price $/t

400

becomes 7.7￠/Nm3-H2 .
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Consistency with IEA-ETP2017 2DS
IEA-ETP 2017 2DS assumes：

IEA-ETP 2017 2DS

By 2060,a) zero emission from the electricity sectorb) 30% emission reduction from the industry sector

Industry

Calculation Assumptions

Transport

 Emission factor from gird electricity：combined average from IGES GRID EF v10.2
 Grid electricity intensity in BF-BOF route: 140kWH/t-s (2016 average of Japan)
 Grid electricity intensity in EAF route: 872kWH/t-s (2016 average of Japan)
 CO2 emission factor in BF-BOF route: 2.4t- CO2 /t-s
 CO2 emission factor in EAF route: 1.0t- CO2 /t-s
 Yield of crude steel against iron source: 0.91 (both natural resource route andscrap route)Total Emissions (Billion t-CO2)
5.0

3.9

4.0

3.7

3.2

3.3

3.0

2DS scenario: -30％（2.24）@2060
2.0

1.0
Gabi Professional TS DB

0.0
2015

2030

The Japan Iron & Steel Federation

Electricityb)a)When zero emission from theelectricity sector is achieved, emission
4.6
4.5 BAU Scenario
from grid electricity consumed in steel
3.9 Zero-Emission Electricity @2060 production process will becomes zero.
3.7 Topping this with the effect of
maximum implementation of BAT and
3.1
BAT max. introduction
the effect of COURSE50 (hydrogen2.6 reduction) from the Maximum
2.8 COURSE50 (H2)Introduction of Innovative
2.3 Technologies Scenario, the emission
COURSE50（H2+CCS）
2.2
level in 2060 comes near the 30%
1.7
reduction presented in the IEA-ETP
2017 2DS. Furthermore, when the
CCS effect of COURSE50 is added,
the scenario shows almost 50%
2050
2060 reduction by 2060.
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13

Part 3:
Challenges of JISF

for Long-term Climate Change Mitigation

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Long-term climate change mitigation strategy by JISF
 “Three ecos” and development of innovative technologies serves as thebasis also for the long-term climate change mitigation strategy beyond 2030.
 In consideration of the long-term target (2 degrees C target) under the Paris
Agreement, development of super-innovative technologies beyond existing
steel production technologies is required.

Eco Process
Efficiency improvement of production
processEco ProductEco Solution

Contribution through supplying highperformance steel products required in a lowcarbon society

Contribution at a global level throughdiffusion of advanced energy efficienttechnologies

Innovative technologies: COURSE 50, ferro coke, etc.
Super innovative technologies: hydrogen reduction iron making, CCS, CCU,etc.

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Roadmap for Zero-carbon STEELThe Japanese Iron and Steel Industry is diligently pursuing the development of innovative ironmaking technologies such as
COURSE50 and ferro coke to realize practical application by 2030. When these technologies are put to practical use, they are
expected to reduce CO2 emissions of natural resource routes by 10% (excluding CCS effect). It is necessary to advance theestablishment of low carbon technologies on the premise of blast furnace use, since the blast furnace method is considered to be themainstream of the steel manufacturing method in the meantime, both technically and economically.
However, these efforts alone cannot reach the long-term target level of the Paris, and "super innovation technologies" beyond them
are necessary. The Japanese Iron and Steel Industry will, using the knowledge gained from the development of COURSE50 andferro coke as a foothold, challenge to develop technologies that will ultimately achieves zero emissions from ironmaking process,including iron reduction technologies using hydrogen, CCS and CCU.
The practical application of hydrogen-reduction ironmaking process is premised that hydrogen is developed and maintained as acommon energy carrier for the society, as it is widely used not only in steel production but also in various sectors such as
automobiles and consumer use. Especially, an important requirement for hydrogen to be used for the production of steel, which is abasic material, is stable supply at low cost, in addition to being carbon free. Moreover, the implementation of CCS requires, inaddition to the development of cheap transportation and storage technologies for large quantities of CO2, solving issues beyond
technical aspects, such as securing CO2 storage sites, acceptance from society, implementing entities, and distribution of theeconomic burdens.
Development of technologies specific to iron & steel sector

2020

2030

COURSE50

Raising ratio of H2 reduction in blast furnace using internal H2 (COG)
Capturing CO2 from blast furnace gas for storage

R&D

Super COURSE50

Further H2 reduction in blast furnace by adding H2 from outside(assuming massive carbon-free H2 supply becomes available)

Stepping up R&D

H2 reductioniron making

H2 reduction iron making without using coal

Stepping up

CCS

Recovery of CO2 from byproduct gases.

R&D

CCU

Carbon recycling from byproduct gases

Development of common fundamental technologies for society

2040

2050

Implementation

Implementation

R&D

Implementation
Implementation

R&D
開発 2020

2030

2040

2050

Carbon-free Power

Carbon-free power sources (nuclear, renewables, fossil+CCS)
Advanced transmission, power storage, etc.

Carbon-free H2Technical development of low cost and massive amount of hydrogenproduction, transfer and storage

R&D

実機化
Implementation

CCS/CCU

Technical development on CO2 capture and strage/usage
Solving social issues (location, PA, etc.)

R&D

Implementation

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R&D R&D

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2100

2100

introduction
Implementation

introduction

16

The First Step to the future; COURSE50
Increasing the share of hydrogen-reduction in BF

COURSE50 projectis the national project for drastic CO2
reduction from iron-making process,consisting of increasing the share ofhydrogen-reduction in blast furnace andCO2 capture from BFG

COURSE50 test blast furnace

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17

Conclusions
The super long-term future beyond 2030 includes uncertainties thatcannot be assumed at the moment, such as social situation andtechnology trends, and the "long-term vision for climate change
mitigation" presented here is to indicate a direction towards achieving
the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement, and it signifies a challenge
to realize "zero-carbon STEEL".
Each member company of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation will,
while continuing to fulfill the Commitment to a Low Carbon Society toachieve Japan's mid-term Paris Agreement target (2030), tackle theclimate change mitigation measures beyond 2030 with “three ecos”
and development of innovative technologies.

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