THE WORLD BANK GROUP
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA
CLIMATE ROADMAP (2021-2025)
Driving transformational climate action andgreen recovery in MENA

Countries in the Middle East & North Africa(MENA) must accelerate system-wide
transformations and develop long-term pathways
to build low-carbon, resilient societies, promote
inclusive development, peace and stability
in the region.

"

The Middle East & North Africa Climate
Roadmap will bring climate anddevelopment together by adopting
an economy-wide, whole ofgovernment approach to strengthen
institutions, overcome barriers to private
sector engagement, foster
regional integration – while ensuring thatno one is left behind."

FOOD SYSTEMS, WATERSECURITY AND RESILIENT
NATURAL CAPITAL

ENERGY TRANSITION AND
LOW-CARBON MOBILITY

CLIMATE-SMART CITIES ANDRESILIENT COASTALECONOMIESSUSTAINABLE FINANCEFOR CLIMATE ACTION

Ayat Soliman,
Sustainable Development Regional Director, World Bank (WB)

1

A Green, Resilient and Inclusive COVID Recovery must reinforce
Climate Action
COVID-19 temporarily stalled national climate action pledges in MENA and across the world. The WBG will work to align short term recovery needs
with climate-smart development through the Green, Resilient and Inclusive Recovery (GRID) framework. This approach will yield triple dividends –recovery programs focusing on short term jobs, while enhancing stronger sustainability and inclusion and laying the foundations for agreener MENA economy.

INCLUSIVE

GREEN
Promote green and low carbon
development across sectors:
food and land use
systems, transport and urban
infrastructure, energy

GREEN,RESILIENT, AND
INCLUSIVE
DEVELOPMENT

Placing inclusion and participation at thecenter of recovery strategies is criticalfor peace and stability in MENA by
ensuring contribution of the recovery
to reducing inequalities(including territorial disparities) andprotect the most

RESILIENT
Enhance risk preparedness andresponse to address the possible
future confluence of multiple risks(climate change, pandemics, natural
hazards, socio economic and financial
shocks)2

Outline
The World Bank Group (WBG) MENA Climate
Roadmap is fully aligned with the WBG
Corporate Climate Change Action Plan
(2021-2025).
The Roadmap articulates regional andcountry specific transformational pathways to build
low-carbon, resilient societies
while promoting socially inclusive
economic growth, that account for:

PEOPLEN AT U R E

1 Climate change context in MENA

2 Four transformation areas for a
climate-smart future in MENA
3 Building on a strong foundation andprinciples for climate-smart development
4 Implementation, partnerships andsummary of key actions

PA R T N E R
S3

1. Climate Change

Context in MENA

"Economic growth and shared prosperity in
MENA will be severely compromised in theabsence of bold climate action."
Ferid Belhaj,
Regional Vice President
Middle East and North Africa, WB
4

Climate Change Context in MENA

MENA is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions
TEMPERATURE RISE

PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY

SEA LEVEL RISE

Extreme high temperatures of up to
56°C could become the norm in MENA in aworld where global average warming
reaches 4°C above pre-industrial levels.
Summer temperatures are expected to beup to 8°C warmer in parts of Algeria, Saudi
Arabia and Iraq by the end of the century.

Both droughts and floods will worsen due toclimate change. Mediterranean coasts will
receive about 10-20% less rain in a 2°C
world and up to 50% less rain in a 4°C
world. Southern parts of the Arabian
Peninsula are projected to become wetter (upto 50% more rain in a 2°C world).

Maghreb is the fastest eroding region in theworld after South Asia and Tunis could
experience a 1.2 m sea-level riseby 2080 (Fig 2). Sea level could rise by anaverage of 0.36m in a 1.5°C world and 0.6m
in a 4°C world. GCC’s coasts accreted
substantially, owing in parts to coastal
reclamation and development projects.

TEMPERATURE PROJECTIONS FOR MENACOMPAREDTO THE BASELINE (1951–1980). WORLD BANKRCP 4.5: 1.2 °C–1.9 °C AT MID-CENTURY AND
1.5 °C– 2.3 °C BY END-CENTURY.

SEA-LEVEL PROJECTIONS FOR TANGIER, TUNIS,ALEXANDRIA AND MUSCAT. WORLD BANKRCP 8.5: 1.7 °C–2.6 °C FOR MID-CENTURY AND
3.2 °C–4.8 °C BY END-CENTURY

5

Climate Change Context in MENA

Climate change is a threat multiplier in the MENA region

LEGEND

Western Sahara*

Precipitation
variability

1

As the world rapidly decarbonizes, highdependency on fossil fuels, low energy
efficiency and limited renewable energy uptake
pose substantial economic and transition
risks.

2

MENA's renewable resources present
significant opportunities for economic
growth, employment, and social inclusion.

3

Climate change and depletion of natural
resources is a threat multiplier in the context
of high socio-political instability,
driving forced displacement, exacerbating risksof violent conflict and posing a significant
threat to vital ecosystems.

4

MENA is the world’s most water-scarceregion. Climate change is severelycompromising water security, sustainability oflands, food security and ecosystems.

5

MENA is highly urbanized, and cities are at
the epicenter of various climate stresses.
Carbon-neutral and resilient urban
infrastructure can significantly contribute to
mitigation goals and prevent untold damage tocritical infrastructure and livelihoods

MAJOR CLIMATE RISKS

Drought risk
Heatwave
Desertification
Coastal erosion

SOCIO – ECONOMIC CONTEXTOil export reliance
Financial and or economic crisis

Urban heat land effectProtests and social unrest

Emerging health risks

High and medium intensity conflict(Libya, Syria, Iraq, Yemen)

Flooding
Risks of water scarcity
Agricultural productivity losses

Food import dependency
High institutional/social fragility(Lebanon, WB&G)
Spill overs from conflict (Jordan, Lebanon)

ECONOMIC STRUCTURE AND GHG FOOTPRINT

Hydrocarbon importers, moderate GHG footprint
Hydrocarbon exporters, moderate GHG footprint
FCV, low GHG footprint
Hydrocarbon exporters, high GHG footprint (GCC)
Hydrocarbon exporter, high GHG footprint (Iran)* data unavailable

6

Climate Change Context in MENA

Hydrocarbon dependency and raising emissions call for urgent decarbonization
FOSSIL FUEL DEPENDENCYREGIONAL GHG TRENDS• MENA's major resource-rich countries are economically dependent on theoil and gas trade. Fossil fuels average 50% of exports for
the GCC, Iraq, Libya, Iran.

• MENA's GHG footprint is low when compared to otherregions (8.7% of global emissions (CAIT 2020) but the region is
also home to the world's top 10-per capita carbon emitters in theworld (Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia)• Both oil and gas exporter and importer countries face increasing fuelinsecurity and vulnerability, as climate change and decarbonization efforts
will pose significant transition risks.
THE POWER GENERATION MIX IN SELECTED MENA COUNTRIES IN 2020 VS.
2019
Natural Gas
100%
90%
Oil
80%
70%
Solar PV (Incl.
60%
CSP)
50%
40%
Hydro
30%
20%

Wind

10%
0%

Coal
Saudi Arabia

Source: APICORP

Egypt

UAE

MoroccoJordonNuclear• MENA is the only region in which growth of CO2e emissions per
capita has outpaced the growth of average incomes.
• GHG emissions would more than triple by 2060
(from 2000 baseline) under a BAU scenario.
GHG EMISSIONS IN MENA UNDER BUSINESS AS USUAL, 2C OF 1.5C PATHWAYS
6.42

6k
GHG Emissions [MtCO2e]• Primary energy demand is expected to double by 2030 and the region’sshare in global oil production is expected to increase from 35% to 44% in
2030 due to population and economic growth (EIA).

5k

4.34

4k

3.36

Business
as Usual

2.0 deg C
Pathway

3k
2k

1.88

2.19
1.75

1k
0k

0.39

1.5 deg C pathway
2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

7

Climate Change Context in MENA

Renewable energy presents a major economic and social opportunity
Renewable energy (not including hydropower) is responsible for less than 1.5% of all electricity generation in the region (vs10% global average). Thanks to high potential in renewable energy resources. MENA can decarbonize its energy systems
with significant socio-economic and environmental benefits.
MENA receives 22-26% of all solar energy striking
the earth. Solar energy potential in MENA per square
kilometer is equivalent to energy produced by
1-2 million barrels of oil annually and could meet at least
50% of global electricity demand.

Direct Normal Irradiation in MENA. Source: Global Solar Atlas

75% of MENA has average wind speeds that exceed
the minimum threshold for utility-scale wind farms. Wind
speeds in countries such as Morocco, Egypt andTunisia are amongst the highest in the world.

Average Wind Mean Speed in MENA. Source: Global Wind Atlas

A transition to low carbon
energy systems could drive economic
growth throughindustrial diversification, newvalue-chain activities, strengthened
regional trade and economic
cooperation.
The development, management andmaintenance of renewable installation
can create sustainable jobs with ajust transition approach, as theworkforce shifts in locality andskillsets. In Morocco only, thecumulative net job creation in thenext 30 years could amount to761,914.
Energy transition presents anopportunity for increased female
labor, as globally women represent
32% of fulltime employees
in renewable energy, compared to
22% in average in the global oil andgas industry.
8Climate Change Context in MENA

Without bold action, climate change will deepen existing vulnerabilities
INCREASE
POVERTY

Unchecked, climate change will push 132M people
into poverty by 2030 (World Bank). Increasing
frequency of natural disasters will jeopardize lives
and livelihoods of the poorest first. Smallholder
farmers and women are hit hard by loss ofagricultural productivity.

HUNGER
MULTIPLIER
Change will weaken countries' agri-foodsystems. Nearly 55 million people were already foodinsecure in Arab States before
COVID-19 (2019). Climate change will reduce
domestic agricultural productivity and affect foodimporting countries facing international food priceshocks.

DISPROPORTIONAL IMPLICATIONSOF ENERGY TRANSITION

Energy transition can potentially leadto great social risks in MENA. Some locations
will experience a loss of jobs, decline of taxes
and revenues, potentially affecting essential
public services.

FRAGILITY, CONFLICTAND VIOLENCE
Climate risks, notably water scarcity, can amplify root
causes of fragility in a highly vulnerable region. Indeed,
one in five people in MENA already live within 60 km ofconflict and the region is home to a quarter of forcibly
displaced people in the world (16.3 million
in 2016). Increasing exposure of women and girls
to climate-related hazards drives
further gender-based violence (GBV).

PUBLIC HEALTH AND
LABOR CONDITIONSClimate change poses significant public health risks,
due to water/air-borne diseases and increasing heat
extremes, affecting vulnerable groups. 40% of lostworking hours due to heat stress in 2030 are in theconstruction sector, disproportionately vulnerable
and migrant workers.

CLIMATE MIGRATION

Climate change can serve as ‘push’ factor
in migration. Sea level rise alone could displace
millions of people along MENA's densely
populated coasts. In North Africa, there could be up
to 19.3 million internal ”climate migrants” by 2050,
accounting for 9% of the subregion’s
total projected population.
9

Climate Change Context in MENA

Climate change will severely exacerbate existing water scarcity
with disastrous socio-economic consequences
COUNTRIES THAT ARE MOST AT RISK FROM WATER CRISISMENA is the world’s most water scarce region.
60% of people live in high or extremely high water
stressed areas, generating 70% of the region's GDP.

Countries facing highwater stressIn a 2°C world, there would be a 15–45% drop in
freshwater availability. Climate-related water scarcity
is estimated to reduce GDP by 6-14% by 2050,
compromising economic development. In a 4°C
world, MENA would experience a 75% drop in freshwater
availability.

1 QatarLack of water in MENA is a crisis waiting
to happen. The lack of access to water can lead to social
unrest, already unfolding in contexts of instability suchas Jordan or Iraq.

6 Libya17

Countries, mostly in the
Middle East, are at risk

2 Israel
3 Lebanon
4 I. R. of Iran
5 JordanWestern Sahara*

7 Kuwait
8 Saudi Arabia
9 Eritrea
10 UAELOW TO HIGH
* data unavailable

Note: Water-scarce countries (shaded above) are those with less than 1,000 cubic meters of renewable fresh
water per person per year.
Source: Peter Gleick, The World’s Water 2000-2001, The Biennial Report on Freshwater Resources: Table 1;
and Carl Haub and Diana Cornelius, 2001 World Population Data Sheet.

10

Climate Change Context in MENA

Climate-driven impacts on food, agriculture and land degradation

The agriculture sector is 70% rainfed and highly exposed to climatechange. Agriculture is the largest employer in many countries
and contributes significantly to national economies. Heat extremes anddrought already affect about one-third of land areas, withconsequences for food production. In a 2°C world, agricultural losses
could reduce household incomes by billions. Losses of
US $2billion in Syria and Tunisia alone, and up to US $9 billion in Yemen.

Desertification endangers almost half theland area in the Mashreq, 28.6% in the Nile Valley andthe Horn of Africa, 16.5% in North Africa and
9% in the Arabian Peninsula.

Iran, Islamic
Rep.

Iraq

JordonLebanonSyrian Arab
Republic

Turkey0Change in sector output 9%)

Climate change is a fundamental threat to food systems and a significant“hunger-risk multiplier” in MENA. Nearly 55 million people were alreadyfood insecure in the region before COVID-19 (2019). The situation isparticularly worrying in countries affected by conflicts and violence: Iraq,
Syria and Yemen. Moreover, countries which are highly dependent onfood imports will face fluctuating
food prices.

THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE–INDUCED WATER SCARCITY AND CROPYIELDS CHANGE ON SECTORAL OUTPUTS, BY COUNTRY

-2
-4
-6
-8
Crop

-10

Forestry

-12

Food

-14

Energy-16

Manufacturing-18

Services

SHARE OF AGRICULTURE (CROPS, FORESTRY AND FISHING) IN
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT AND GDP, 2017
50

GDP
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

40
30
20
10
0
Syrian Arab
Republic

Rep.of Yemen

Libya

Source: ESCWA calculations from FAO and ILO data.

Iraq

LebanonJordan11

Climate Change Context in MENA

MENA cities are at the forefront of climate action
Sea level rise, the urban heat island effect and flooding
can directly lead to substantial infrastructure and asset loss,
undermining liveability of cities. (fig 1)
Population growth and rapid urbanization have strainedwater resources, exacerbated pollution problems, stretched basic
services, and amplified the exposure of urban residents
to natural hazards. MENA’s population is expected to nearly
double by 2050 (UNICEF), adding significant challenges to
employment and livability of densely populated areas.

Population
exposed to sea
level rise (% ofcountry total)

<1%
1-5%

Western Sahara*

5-10%
10-15%
15-20%>20%* data unavailable

Cities are drivers of change and must accelerate economic, socialand environmental resilience in addition to finding solutions
to recover from current shocks. The physical and economic densityof cities can provide the impetus for technologicalchange and infrastructure investments that support low carbon
economic development and resilience ofthe MENA societies.

GDP PER CAPITA (2000 US$)
Passenger cars per 1000 people

Decarbonizing road transport in cities is a major challenge in MENA.
Public transport is under-developed and private cars have become
the dominant mode of travel in cities. (fig 2)

Source: Dasgupta et al., (2007)

700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0

10000

20000

30000

40000

Car shares defined as passenger trips by personal car as percentage of all
motorized trips. WB staff based on Fountas et al.

50000

60000

12

2. Four Transformation

areas for a ClimateSmart Future in
MENA

13

Four transformation areas for a climate-smart future in MENA

Prioritizing Key Transformation Areas

1
FOOD SYSTEMS, WATERSECURITY & RESILIENT
NATURAL CAPITAL
Shifting to a climate-smart approach toagriculture and natural resource
management in MENA is instrumental
to achieve food security and preserve
nature, while ensuring peace andstability.

3

2
ENERGY TRANSITION
AND LOW-CARBON MOBILITY
Decarbonizing the energy and transport
sectors via increased energy efficiency,
renewable energy and clean mobility
solutions will avoid significant
environmental, health, economic,
and trade-related risks.

4

CLIMATE-SMART CITIES &RESILIENT COASTALECONOMIESSUSTAINABLE FINANCEFOR CLIMATE ACTION

Cities and coastal areas are at
the frontlines of climate
impacts, while being the engines of
economic growth. Climate-smart
spatial planning and key investments
can achieve carbon neutrality andmake cities and coastal areas
resilient, and inclusive.

Climate change posessignificant financial risks in MENA,
compounding elevated levels of macro,banking sector, and debt risk. A green
and resilient financial sector can playa key role in mobilizing climate
finance and managing risk.

CROSS-CUTTING CONSIDERATIONS
Whole of Government Approach, Social & Spatial Inclusion, Citizen Engagement, Just Transition, Fragility,
Conflict & Violence, Private Sector Mobilization, Climate Data & Digital Innovation, Regional Integration

14

Four transformation areas for a climate-smart future in MENA

Food Systems, Water Security & Resilient Natural Capital
PROMOTE CLIMATE-SMART
AGRI-FOOD SYSTEMS
Building climate-resilient food systems will
reduce growing food insecurity in a region ofhigh import dependency and 70% rainfed agriculture.

ENHANCE CLIMATE-SENSITIVE
WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENTClimate-smart water resource management will
increase adaptive capacity to cope with increasingwater scarcity, in the most arid and semi-arid
region in the world.

BUILD RESILIENT
NATURAL CAPITAL
Incorporating climate into natural capitalmanagement will yield vast mitigation andadaptation benefits, whilst preserving biodiversityand vital ecosystems.

PRIORITY INTERVENTIONS• Climate-smart agriculture action plans,
modern irrigation and cropping practices• Reforms to reduce food loss and waste
along agricultural value chains• Technologies to strengthen farmers'
adaptive capacity• Sustainable fisheries and aquaculture
management, including livelihood
diversification for vulnerable fisherycommunities• Integrated water resource management
strategies, balancing freshwater withdrawals
and replenishments• Systematic reforms to remove inefficiencies
in water sector• Effective treatment of wastewater fordischarge and reuse• Clean technologies for water treatment
systems• Analysis of biodiversity loss linked toadaptation and carbon sinks• Further enhance understanding of
Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) potential
and improve natural capital accounting• Increasing investments in NBS(regeneration of vegetation, integrated
landscape management approaches, blue
carbon, nature-based tourism)• Transboundary water cooperation andconflict prevention
15

Four transformation areas for a climate-smart future in MENA

Energy Transition and Low-Carbon Mobility
PROMOTE LONG-TERM EMISSIONSREDUCTION AND ECONOMIC
DIVERSIFICATION STRATEGIES
Readiness and capacity building to underpin
policies and investments for long term, deep
decarbonization strategies for a clean andresilient energy system.

SCALE UP RENEWABLES AND
ENERGY EFFICIENCY

Policies and programs to drastically increase shareof renewables in the energy mix and achieveenergy efficiency goals.

SHIFT TO LOW-CARBON
AND RESILIENT
TRANSPORT SYSTEMS
Low carbon transportation will significantly
improve air quality and livability of densely
populated areas while reducing GHG emissions.

PRIORITY INTERVENTIONS• Upstream engagement and analytics (e.g.
Low emission power sector strategies)• Support to distribution sector reforms,
including energy subsidy reforms, reduction/utilization of gas flaring• Policies for industrial decarbonization, greencompetitiveness, and circular carbon economy• Support to country or sector-specific demandside energy efficiency• Enhance grid integration (including throughpan-regional trade) and enabling
infrastructure to deploy intermittent renewableenergy• Inform Renewable Energy (RE) and storage
policy and develop nascent RE andstorage technologies• Enhance resilience of critical power grids,
and improving access to affordable clean
electricity for the most vulnerable• Climate-smart transport policies,
integrated planning and capacity building• Investments in public transport
infrastructure and services• Improve enabling environment for emobility solutions• Mainstream resilience in infrastructure
investments throughout asset life cycle(transport, energy, digital)• Activities encouraging nonmotorized transport options

16

Four transformation areas for a climate-smart future in MENA

Climate-Smart Cities & Resilient Coastal Economies
PROMOTE CLIMATE-SMART URBAN
DEVELOPMENT AND PLANNING
Climate-smart urban development, with a focus
on coastal cities is critical to improve livabilityof cities, promoteeconomic growth.

ENSURE CLIMATE-SMART
PUBLIC SERVICES
With the appropriate institutional frameworks andmaster plans, MENA can build readiness toensure the continuity of critical public services,
especially in water, sanitation and waste
management.

DEVELOP RESILIENT COASTALECONOMIES
Integrated coastal management and climate
adaptive coastal economies will mitigate
significant risks in the face ofincreasing climate hazards and reduce
livelihoods.

PRIORITY INTERVENTIONS• Climate-smart urban strategies, in
hotspots including guidelines
for Disaster Risk Management, green growth,
low-carbon transit• Green buildings: innovation,
green retrofitting, reforms for planning andbuilding codes, green technologies• Spatial planning for urban interventions with afocus on liveability, green space, use of data
and digital technology• Clean energy and energy efficient systems forwater treatment and wastewater reuse• Blue economy, blue carbon sequestrationand climate adaptation of coastal cities• Solid waste management plans for
waste recovery, landfills and recycling centers.

• Support to improve climate data tomeasure sea level rise and coastal erosion• Leverage private finance and build-operatetransfer to expand nonconventional water resources and develop
technologies for providing clean water.

• Marine and coastal ecosystem restorationand conservation• Strategies for increased resilience of the
tourism sector• Measures to reduce air pollution via technologies
and new indicators that are useful for
protecting health17Four transformation areas for a climate-smart future in MENA

Sustainable Finance for Climate Action
GREENING FINANCIAL
SYSTEMSGreening the financial institutions, systems
and instruments will be the cornerstone of climatesmart transitions. The WB, IFC and MIGA will
jointly support this transition working closely withnational and private sector institutions.

IDENTIFY AND ADDRESS
TRANSITION RISKS
Identifying climate-related physical andtransition risks to the economy will be essential
to formulate policies for resilient
financial institutions and governance in MENA.

UNLOCK GREEN FINANCING FOR
CLIMATE SMART INVESTEMNTS
Supporting national budgets and expenditures
to align with green financing needs; unlocking
private capital flows for green investments.

PRIORITY INTERVENTIONS• Climate stress tests identifying climate related risks in the financial system andsupervisory response.
• Climate risk management guidelines,
standards and regulation for financial
institutions such as supervisory guidance in climate
risk monitoring• Support to regulators on climate risk financing• Develop green financial tools and instruments• Assessments of financial exposure of assets
and investments to climate risks and disasters• Green taxonomies, and national expenditure
reviews in alignment with climate goals• Support in estimation and managementof disaster-related contingent liabilities to manage
fiscal burden from climate hazards• Developing green financing frameworks,
guidelines aligned with climate goals and longterm reforms• Develop national risk financing and support
domestic and international insurance products
and instruments.

• Support to increase treasury markets/privatebanks for green and climate resilient
investments• Assessments of trade risks (e.g. from CBAM, EU
Green Deal) and strategies for sectoral transitions tocope with contingent liabilities, avoid stranded
assets and economic losses• Identify innovative business models,
technologies for private sector investments inclimate action

18

Four transformation areas for a climate-smart future in MENA

Cross-cutting priorities
WHOLE OF GOVERNMENTAPPROACH
The Roadmap will provide support tomainstream climate action in core
government functions and institutions byfacilitating sectoral and vertical integrationof climate change through wellcoordinated government
strategies and policies.

CLIMATE-FCV
NEXUS
The Roadmap will address climate andfragility nexus by reducing knowledge
gaps between environmental degradation
and FCV risks as well as pragmatic,
select interventions to disrupt any vicious
cycles.

PRIVATE SECTORPARTICIPATION
Private sector participation in climate
action is particularly low in MENA, due toseveral regulatory barriers andthe business environment. The Roadmap
will prioritize reforms and investments togreen industries, create new markets,manage supply chain risks, foster green
innovation and technology adoption andprotect cultural and natural assets.

SOCIAL AND SPATIALINCLUSION
The Roadmap will promote social andspatial inclusion, by preparing
vulnerability maps to assess future
distributional impacts and opportunity
gaps - disaggregated by vulnerable
groups; and supporting climate-adaptivesocial protection systems, effectively
targeting the most vulnerable.

CLIMATE DATA AND
DIGITAL INNOVATION
To promote digital innovation and bridge
the gap in access to climate data, theRoadmap will support digitally-enabled,
climate smart service delivery, scale up
use of satellite imagery to map andmanage risks, predict and provide predict
weather patterns and provide early
warning systems.

GREEN SKILLS AND
JOBS
To contribute to unlocking MENA's
potential of job multipliers of the lowcarbon and resilient transitions, theRoadmap will focus on targeted
investments in reskilling and upskilling toleverage job multipliers of the low
carbon transition and support strategy
development for carbon-intensive sectors,
with a focus on vulnerable groups.

REGIONAL
INTEGRATIONThe Roadmap will enhance cooperationand collaboration across borders to
support efficiency bring solutions that canbe scaled-up. Examples include
coordinated managementof transboundary waters and other natural
resources, energy production and trade,and transport corridors.

CITIZEN
ENGAGEMENTTo ensure meaningful citizen engagement
and social cohesion, the Roadmap will
support the necessary plans, strategies
and communication plans to improveclimate risk management and solutions,
including to avoid a myriad of stressors
on essential services.

19Four transformation areas for a climate-smart future in MENA

Highlights of country specific actions
POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIESMOROCCOTUNISIA

ALGERIAEGYPTDJIBOUTIJORDANLEBANON

IRAQ

Climate smart and digital food systems
transformations
Climate-smart water resource management
Increased energy efficiency and renewables
Long-term Strategies and support to decouple
growth from emissions
Industrial decarbonization, circular carbon
economy and green competitivenessClimate-smart urban planningBlue economy programs
Integrated coastal zone management
Climate-smart public financial management,
climate-proofing budgets and expenditure
Unlocking finance for green investment,
greening financial institutions* Colors align with the transformation area slides for representation purposes only20

Ambition and Targets
The WBG MENA Climate Roadmap will deliver on key targets by 2025

INVEST

BALANCE$10B of WB and IFC financing in climate
smart projects and policy reforms in
MENA.
Leveraging another $2B in private sector
financing towards climate
smart investments.*
Adaptation and Mitigation. Invest 50% ofclimate finance in building resilience, reflecting
regional heterogeneity and country-specificdemand.

DEVELOPALIGNCountry Climate and Development Reports(CCDRs) for all MNA countries. All core
analytics (SCDs, CPFs) and country products
integrate climate risk management andopportunities for low carbon growth.

All financial flows align with the goals of the Paris
Agreement by FY23. This includes climateproofing all investments (especially infrastructure
and other physical assets) to avoid stranded
assets

These commitments will be guided by client demand and delivered through the collective strength of theWorld Bank Group (World Bank, IFC, MIGA)*Calculated for the full period of the CCAP (FY22-25), using the assumption of 35% (as our target for climate finance).

21

3. Building on a strong

foundation andprinciples forclimate-smart
development
in MENA“Our region is at a pivotal moment in its
development trajectory. We must address
multiple shocks and stresses in an
integrated manner. Climate-smart
development focused on building green,
resilient and inclusive economies is the
only path forward.”
Ferid Belhaj,
Regional Vice President
Middle East and North Africa, WB
21

Building on a strong foundation and principles of climate smart development

The Roadmap builds on a strong foundation for climate action supported by
WBG
The WBG support in the last five years served as an important driver for regional climate mitigation activities while paving the way forincreased focus on adaptation, including disaster risk management and investments in resilience building across sectors.
MENA’s overall climate-related financing reached $6.4B from FY16–FY20, exceeding the 21%
climate co-benefits target set in 2015.

WBG PROJECT EXAMPLES INCLUDE:
GREEN ANDRESILIENTDEVELOPMENT
The Morocco Green Generation
Program for Resultsseeks to increase the economic
inclusion of youth in rural areas,
and the efficiency andsustainability of agri-food value
chains through increased job
opportunities and income
generation; efficiency of agri-foodmarketing systems; and climatesmart agriculture.

AIR POLLUTION ANDENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
The Lebanon Environmental
Pollution Abatement Project(LEPAP) enabled substantial
reduction of GHG emissions,improves water and air quality,
facilitates sustainable economic
development, and reduces riskof vulnerability to respiratory
diseases such as asthma.

RENEWABLE
ENERGYEgypt Benban Solar Energy Project.
Joint IBRD, IFC and MIGA project tosupport 32 solar power plants
generating up to 752MW of power,
serving more than 350,0000
residential customers. The
foundation was laid for expanding
the model for private participation in
renewable energy integrated withkey sectors such as transportation
and agriculture.

LOWCARBON TRANSPOR
T
Casa Tramway. IFC is backing a
new tramway in Casablanca that will
cut travel times by 35%
during working hours and will
help the Casablanca-Settat region
upgrade several hundred
kilometers of rural roads in remoterural communities, connectingsome 400,000 people to schools,
hospitals, and other services.
22

Building on a strong foundation and principles of climate smart development

Guiding principles of the
WBG MENA Climate
Roadmap 2021-2025
Bringing the collective strength of all
WBG institutions (WB, IFC andMIGA) to accelerate
climate action

The Roadmap is based on WBG's strong commitment
for sustainable post-COVID recovery aligned with the
GRID framework

Deliver climate action at scale. The Roadmap's climate financetarget of 35% (average in FY21-25) will support green, resilient andinclusive development while deepening policy dialogue, and aligninginvestment pipeline for climate action.
Align climate action with development challenges: Country
Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) - a new set of core
analytical and country diagnostic tools informed by countries'
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Long-Term
Strategies (LTSs), will be essential to help align climate change anddevelopment in MENA. The WBG will develop CCDRs in all
countries over the next 5 years.
Increase climate ambition through transformational
interventions in four key pillars. The Roadmap seeks to
go beyond achieving corporate commitments, scaling up successes
to help countries increase their climate ambition and leadership.
Ensure a whole of government approach while engaging all
stakeholders, taking distributional impacts into account. The
Roadmap is committed to mainstreaming climate action in
institutions, increasing private sector engagement, ensure a justtransition with social and spatial inclusion.
Follow a differentiated approach to account for country context
and client demand. The Roadmap is tailored to respond to country
context, considering different development needs and challenges
pertaining to Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV).

23

Building on a strong foundation and principles of climate smart development

MENA is committed to climate action
Increased focus and bold action is needed to meet growing commitments
Many countries in MENA have announced bold climate goals, but overall progress on implementation remains slow.
Climate finance needs are estimated at $186 billion in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
SNAPSHOT OF CLIMATE TARGETS AND COMMITMENTS

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC):
All MENA countries have submitted their first
NDCs* and10 countries have recently submitted
updated NDCs. Morocco, Tunisia, Oman and UAE
have submitted their second NDCs.
Carbon neutrality commitments:
UAE (2050); Saudi Arabia (2060); Bahrain (2060)
Cities committed to Race to Zero:
Amman (Jordan); Dubai (UAE); Chefchafouen;
Rabat, Benslimane (Morocco), Mashhad(Iran) Arta Region (Djibouti

Landmark COP26 announcements:
•

•

•

•
Net Zero Banking Alliance:
Commercial International Bank (CIB) Egypt;First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) UAE; Bank AlMaghrib (Morocco)*Libya has not ratified the Paris Agreement

The Global Methane Pledge: Endorsed
by Djibouti, Iraq, Morocco, Saudi Arabia,
Tunisia, UAE.

MENA IS THE SMALLEST RECIPIENT OF
CLIMATE FINANCE IN THE WORLDDOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE FINANCE FLOWS BY
REGIONS(USD BILLIONS)

Green Grids Initiative: One Sun One WorldOne Grid: One Sun Declaration. Endorsed
by: Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Oman,
Saudi Arabia, UAE
Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on
Forests and Land Use: Signed by Jordan,
Lebanon, Syria, Morocco, UAE$16

Middle East & North Africa$20

Sub-Saharan Africa$31

South Asia

$32

Central Asia & Eastern Europe$35

Latin America & Caribbean$83

US & Canada$105 Western Europe$292 East Asia & Pacific

Low-Carbon, Climate-Resilient
Health Systems: Joined by: Bahrain, Egypt,
Morocco, Oman, Tunisia, UAE, Yemen$10

Transregional$9

Other Oceania

Source: Climate Policy Initiative24

4. Implementation,

partnerships andsummary of key
actions25

Implementation, partnerships and summary of key actions

Building Strong Partnerships
The WBG will facilitate and convene global, regional and subnational partnerships for collective action through:Thematic partnerships with regional organizations to
act collectively on issues such as climate finance forresilience building and management of sharednatural resources (e.g., Mashreq Transboundary
Water Platform).

Strengthening capacity of national and sub-national
actors and institutions for alignment of climate
action at all levels. For examples between national
ministries, cities and local public institutions.

Collaboration with Financial Institutions: to foster
multi-actor partnerships between developmentbanks and national financial institutions to alignfinancial flows national climate and development
priorities.

Knowledge partnerships with academia, thinktanks, civil society organizations and youth
networks to provide a platform for knowledge
sharing and exchange of ideas for bold climate
actions.

Collective climate action presents a strong collaboration opportunity. Enhanced regional
integration on these transformation areas and strong multi-stakeholder partnerships will be
key to smooth transitions to a low-carbon future and resilient future.
26

Implementation, partnerships and summary of key actions

Enabling environment for private sector engagement
The role of the private sector is critical in all four of the proposed transformations to bridge the financing gap, provide latest technologies andbring innovative approaches for a low-carbon and resilient future. Private sector participation can be accelerated by addressing regulatory barriers,
perceived risks on returns, political instability, and data paucity.

LEVERAGING GOOD PRACTICES TO
INCREASE PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATIONREDUCING BARRIERS TO PRIVATE SECTORENGAGEMENT•

Simplifying environmental regulations for industries, making
them transparent and predictable, and introducing risk-based
approaches.

•

Enabling entrepreneurial innovation in climate-smart
solutions by providing conducive regulatory frameworks andenabling access to appropriate financial products and firm-level
capability initiatives.

•

•

•

Green bonds. IFC and PROPARCO supported the first green bondissuance to Banque Centrale Populaire (BCP) in Morocco to promotesustainable, environment-friendly projects. The 10-year maturity bondwill be used to provide long-term funding for BCP, one of Morocco’s
largest banking groups.

•

Greening healthcare facilities. IFC is supporting healthcare
holding companies develop a network of high-quality hospitals
and healthcare assets in North Africa, by mobilizing $125M in
debt and $108.5m in equity – with IFC's green building
standard and certification system (EDGE).

•

Climate finance for MSMEs. In Tunisia, IFC and the
Clean Technology Fund facilitated access to climate finance for
MSMEs for climate smart agriculture, waste recycling and solar PV
via the creation of a Sustainable Energy Financing business line.

Enhancing competition and removing barriers to entry inservice sectors such as desalination, wastewater treatment,
renewable energy, recycling.
Strengthening building regulation and enforcement to mitigate
climate change/disaster risks.

27

Implementation, partnerships and summary of key actions

Implementation support and monitoring
OPERATIONALIZING CLIMATE ACTION THROUGH
WBG POLICY AND INVESTMENT PROGRAMS

Bringing the collective strength of the World Bank Group(WB, IFC, MIGA) to accelerate climate action in MENA.
Align knowledge and analytical agenda to include climate
risks and opportunities.
Integrate climate considerations in strategic country dialogue
and key engagement instruments (SCDs, CPFs), including
through Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs)
Enhance technical support for project preparationby connecting sector teams and CMUs with resources toadvance climate action.
Crowd-in Trust Funds to foster analytical evidence to shapecountry dialogues and future pipelines.
Leverage innovative products for enhanced private sector
participation and manage political and financial risks for more
ambitious climate action.

IMPLEMENTATION
AND TRACKING

The roadmap is a live document allowing for course correction
to reflect lessons during implementation and tracking.
Support delivery of corporate commitments on climate change
Periodic sector and country team discussions on
implementation progress
2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Alignment of portfolio and pipeline on annual and quarterly basis

Regular reporting on progress regarding corporate commitments to RVP, RDs, CMUs

Semi-annual check-ins to review progress aligned with WBG program planning cycle

Mid-term review (2023) to take stock and adjust targets

Final evaluation (2025)
28

Implementation, partnerships and summary of key actions

Summing Up
Shape transformative programs and policies, alongwith cutting edge analytics and technical assistance.

Produce Country Climate and Development
Reports (CCDRs) to fully integrate climatechange and development

Deepen engagement with local organizations, civilsociety, youth networks and academia to create andsupport the sustained momentum for change.

Support countries as they define, update andimplement their NDCs and LTSs and inform
our country engagement products

Conduct regular monitoring and course correction toreflect lessons from implementation.

Develop stronger global, regional and country-level
partnerships with key stakeholders and the private
sector to promote regional collaboration

Regularly update the Roadmap to account forchanging political contexts and development needs30AnnexThe World Bank Group
Middle East & North Africa Climate Roadmap
Driving transformational climate action
and green recovery in MENAFY 2021-2025