MAURITANIA
Table 1

Key conditions andchallenges
2023

Population, million

4.9GDP, current US$ billion

10.6

GDP per capita, current US$2170.6

International poverty rate ($2.15)

a5.4
a25.8

a68.0

Lower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65)
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85)
Gini index

a32.0

School enrollment, primary (% gross)

b86.7

b64.4

Total GHG emissions (mtCO2e)

14.9Life expectancy at birth, years

Source: WDI, Macro Poverty Outlook, and official data.
a/ Most recent value (2019), 2017 PPPs.
b/ WDI for School enrollment (2020); Life expectancy(2021).

Real GDP growth slowed in 2023 to 3.4
percent from 6.4 percent in 2022. Monetary policy tightening and lower international food and energy prices eased inflation and improved the current accountbalance. The fiscal deficit narrowed due tounder-executed capital spending. The
poverty rate (US$3.65-a-day) is expected
to slightly increase from 27.7 percent in
2022 to 27.9 percent in 2023. The medium-term outlook remains favorable albeit
subject to downside risks.

Owing to its wealth of natural resources, consisting of iron ore, gold,
crude oil, and copper, per capita
GDP tripled over the last two
decades to stand at USD 2,170.6 placing Mauritania among the World’sLower
Middle-IncomeCountries.
Nevertheless, the economy confronts
structural challenges as underscoredby the slow post-pandemic recovery.
The heavy dependence on extractives, low capacity to implement
public investment projects, a challenging business environment, andhigh vulnerability to climate shocks
weigh on Mauritania’s growth anddevelopment prospects. The poorest
are exposed to high risk of food insecurity due to climate shocks on local
food production which contributes 20
percent of food consumption.
Overcoming these challenges will require greater reliance on the private
sectortostimulate
productivity
growth, increase job creation, andraise the income of the poor. Maintaining strong macroeconomic fundamentals will be key to creating andpreserving the fiscal space needed for
growth and climate-friendly investments. Strengthening the resilience toclimate shocks remains a priority thatwill involve policies and investment inadaptation and mitigation.

FIGURE 1 Mauritania / Evolution of main macroeconomicindicators
Percent
8Poverty rate (%)-2-44

Economic growth is estimated at 3.4 percent in 2023 (0.7 percent in per capitaterms) down from 6.4 percent in 2022 (3.7percent in per capita terms) reflecting asignificant contraction in fish production
on the supply side and lower public investment and fish exports on the demand side.
Inflation decreased driven by lower foodand oil prices, reaching 1.6 percent (y/y) in
December 2023, compared with 11 percent(y/y) in December 2022.
The US$3.65-a-day poverty rate is expected to slightly increase from 27.7 percent in2022 to 27.9 percent in 2023 due to a decline in per capita agriculture growth (-2.7
percentage points (pp)) counterbalanced
by a decline in inflation (-4.6 pp). The number of poor is also expected to increaseby 44,000 people.
The fiscal balance recorded a deficit of 2.5
percent of GDP in 2023, compared with 3.7
percent of GDP in 2022. This improvement
was driven by a fall in capital expenditure
to 6.7 percent of GDP in 2023 from 11.3
percent of GDP in 2022, offsetting the decline in commodity revenues and higher
wages and compensation resulting fromthe public sector salary increase in January
2023. The debt-to-GDP ratio rose by 1.3 pp
to 48.6 percent of GDP in 2023, due to lower nominal growth and the depreciationof the exchange rate at the end of 2023.
The December 2023 WB/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis suggests that external
debt remains sustainable, and the risk ofdebt distress moderate.

FIGURE 2 Mauritania / Actual and projected poverty rates
and real GDP per capita

Percent of GDP06

Recent developments

Real GDP per capita (constant LCU)

80

90000

70

80000

60

70000

-6-82-2-42021

2022

2023e

GDP growth (lhs)
Current account balance (rhs)

2024p

2025p

50000

40-100

60000

50

40000

-1230-14

20

20000

-16

1010000

-18

0

2026p

30000

02008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Primary fiscal balance (lhs)

Source: World Bank.

International poverty rate

Lower middle-income pov. rate

Upper middle-income pov. rate

Real GDP pc

Source: World Bank. Notes: see Table 2.

MPO1Apr 24

The current account deficit (CAD) improved to 10 percent of GDP in 2023, reflecting an improved trade balance due tolower imports of capital goods, oil andfood in turn driven by a 17 percent and9 percent decrease in international pricesof oil and food, respectively. The Mauritanian Central Bank's foreign exchange reserves rose from 4.5 months of goods imports in 2022, to 6 months in 2023.
The central bank of Mauritania pursued
a restrictive monetary policy to containinflation in 2023. After raising the key
interest rate to 8 percent in December
2022, it increased the reserve requirement ratio from 6 to 8 percent in July2023. It also conducted open market operations to dry up excess liquidity andlimit its impact on prices.

OutlookThe medium-term outlook is positive withgrowth projected at 3.8 percent in 2024 (1.1
percent in per capita terms) and to hoveraround 5.4 percent in 2025-2026. The
launch of gas production in the second halfof 2025 will boost growth while providing
sufficient fiscal margin to finance development projects and support social protection reforms. Higher private investments,
an improved net external position, andsustained private demand will also support growth. Average inflation will fall further and reach 2.5 percent in 2024, as external pressures ease, and stabilize around 2
percent in 2025 and 2026.
The US$3.65-a-day poverty rate is expected to remain largely unchanged at 28.3
percent in 2024-2025 and to decline to 25.9
percent in 2026 largely due to low growthin agriculture and declining food inflation.
Low inflation and strong agriculture performance in 2026 are expected to lead to adecline in the number of poor by 125,000
people from 2025 to 2026.
The CAD should improve, reaching 8.5
percent of GDP in 2024 and average 5.5
percent of GDP in 2025-2026, driven by gas
exports, lower imports in the extractive industry, and lower import prices. FDI
linked to the extractive industry, andTABLE 2 Mauritania / Macro poverty outlook indicators

donors, are expected to remain the main
sources of external financing.
The fiscal deficit should decrease to 2 percent of GDP in 2024, supported by lower
current transfers, and higher tax revenues.
In 2026, the fiscal balance is projected toturn into a surplus of 0.1 percent of GDPwith gas revenue bringing about 0.5 percent of GDP of yearly additional fiscal revenue. Debt should gradually decline to46.3 percent of GDP in 2026.
Risks to the outlook remain elevated. A
slowdown in Foreign Direct Investment
inflows due to a delay in the second andthird phases of the gas extraction project and the tightening of global financing
conditions would weigh on medium-term
growth, fiscal and external prospects.
Mauritania is exposed to various climatic
shocks such as drought and floods, which
adversely affect human capital, householdincomes, and agricultural production. Regional insecurity in the Sahel remains arisk. Presidential elections scheduled forJune 2024 could exacerbate spending
pressures, leading to a deterioration in
the fiscal situation.

(annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)

Real GDP growth, at constant market prices
Private consumption
Government consumption
Gross fixed capital investment
Exports, goods and services
Imports, goods and services

2021
0.7
3.4
26.8
12.1
-12.9
-3.3

2022
6.4
2.7
22.3
-7.3
39.9
15.8

2023e
3.4
2.5
8.3
-4.6
3.0
-0.52024f
3.8
2.6
7.3
5.9
3.6
4.0

2025f
4.5
2.7
6.0
3.1
6.7
3.9

2026f
6.3
2.8
4.7
3.3
10.1
3.6

Real GDP growth, at constant factor prices
Agriculture
Industry
Services

0.0
-2.9
-11.5
11.0

8.0
12.7
12.0
3.1

3.4
1.2
6.1
2.6

3.8
2.8
6.3
2.5

4.5
2.0
7.7
3.3

6.3
5.5
8.9
4.6

Inflation (consumer price index)

3.6

9.6

5.0

2.5

2.0

2.0

Current account balance (% of GDP)Net foreign direct investment inflow (% of GDP)

-8.5
11.5

-16.6
14.3

-10.0
7.4

-8.5
5.0

-6.7
2.7

-4.3
2.5

Fiscal balance (% of GDP)
Revenues (% of GDP)
Debt (% of GDP)
Primary balance (% of GDP)

2.3
23.0
52.4
3.1

-3.7
24.1
47.3
-2.9

-2.5
22.1
48.6
-1.5

-2.0
22.6
47.7
-1.0

-1.4
23.0
47.5
-0.5

0.1
23.5
46.3
1.0

6.3
27.3
69.0

5.9
27.7
70.1

5.7
27.9
70.5

5.8
28.4
71.1

5.8
28.3
71.1

5.3
25.9
69.0

2.8
31.3

2.9
31.6

3.2
32.2

3.2
32.8

3.4
33.7

0.0
33.7

a,b

International poverty rate ($2.15 in 2017 PPP)
a,bLower middle-income poverty rate ($3.65 in 2017 PPP)a,b
Upper middle-income poverty rate ($6.85 in 2017 PPP)
GHG emissions growth (mtCO2e)
Energy related GHG emissions (% of total)

Source: World Bank, Poverty & Equity and Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment Global Practices. Emissions data sourced from CAIT and OECD.
Notes: e = estimate, f = forecast.
a/ Calculations based on 2019-EPCV. Actual data: 2019. Nowcast: 2020-2023. Forecasts are from 2024 to 2026.
b/ Projections using microsimulation methodology.

MPO2

Apr 24