WEPA Conference, Hanoi
March 8, 2010

Environmental Sustainability in
Asian Countries
Motoyuki Suzuki*
Special Advisor of WEPA*Professor, The Open University of Japan
Special Programme Advisor, The United Nations University

Expanding Human Impacts

Aug 11, 2002
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0208/earthlights02 dmsp big.jpg

Commonalities andDifferences among Countries
Vietnam and Japanas an example

N 60°
N 50°
Sapporo

N 40°

Tokyo

N 30°
NahaHanoi

N. Tropic
N 20°

Da Nang
HCMC

N 10°

Equator

自然生態系に対する人間活動の影響

S 10°

Monthly Averaged Temperature in Six Cities
Temperature (degC)
353025Sapporo
Tokyo
NahaHanoi
Da Nang
HCMC

20151050-5Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Monthly Averaged Precipitation in Six Cities
700

Precipitation (mm/mo)

600500

SapporoTokyo
NahaHanoi
Da Nang
HCMC

400
300
2001000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Relations

700

Precipitation (mm/mo)

600
500
SapporoTokyo
NahaHanoi
Da Nang
HCMC

400300200
1000-1001020Temperature (degC)

3040Comparison of Vietnam and Japan
ItemAreaPopulation

unit
km2
103

Population Density person/km2

Japan
year Vietnam year
377,835
331,150
127,156 09
88,576 09est
336260GDP

109$Official(109$PPP)

4909.2709(4354.55)

91.76
09est
(256)

GDP/capita

US$PPP

34,098.80 09

2,900.00 09est

4.1 0821.4 09est

77.9(m)05
84.6(f)69.2(m)09est
74.45(f)4 08

6.5 09est

Agriculture/fishery%Life expectancy
Unemployment
GINI coefficient%24.9 053704

Water Availabilities andDemands
Diversified Conditions AmongCountries

Monthly Precipitation

C.J. Vorosmarty et al, Science, 289, 284‐8 (2000)

Water Withdrawals per Capita,
m3/person/year

Fresh Water Withdrawal
in Asian Countries (2000)

10,000Japan

Bangladesh
ThailandUSA

Viet NamMyanmar
Lao PDR
Malaysia
Cambodia
BhutanSri Lanka
1,000India
Germany
Korea

Increasing
HumanActivity
Density

Nepal
Mongolia
China
Philippines Indonesia

100Population Increase
Falkenmark’s Criteria
10100

1,000

10,000

Renewable Water
Resources per Capita,
m3/person/year
100,000

Sustainability
Definitions of “SustainableDevelopment”

“Sustainable Development”• A pattern of resource use that aims to meethuman needs while preserving theenvironment so that these needs can be met
not only in the present, but also for future
generations– WCED: “Our Common Future”, 1987

• Humanity must take no more from naturethan nature can replenish– IUCN, UNEP, WWF: “Caring for the Earth”, 1991,
originally from “World Conservation Strategy”,
1980Background• We realized that the world will soon or later
face “Catastrophe”, if the current wastefulactivities and lifestyles are continued.
• Need for understanding structures ofenvironmental problems caused by impacts
from increasing human activities.
• What we really need may be “development ofsustainability or sustainable societies”, rather
than “sustainable development”.

“Strategy for an Environmental Nation in the 21st Century”
Prepared by the Central Environmental Council, Japan, May 2007

Three Important Risks
Risk ofGlobal Warming

Low Carbon
Society

Risk ofResources Depletion

Risk ofEcosystem Damage

Vision forthree Society Models
Policy Development by Integrationof three aspects of a
Sustainable
SocietySociety in Harmony
with NatureSound Material
Cycle SocietySound Material
Cycle Society

Sustainable Society

Interlinkage of Various Issues
Global warming

Carboncycle
Concentration
changeChange inprecipitation

Forestdegradation

NO, CH4

Land degradation

CO2Deforestation

Biodiversity
loss

Food production,
supply andconsumption

Loss ofagricultural
Production andgenetic
diversity

Salinization
Loss ofproductivities

Loss ofhabitat

Human Activities

Increase of HumanActivities
Population Growth in Asia
Economic Activity Increase
Energy Consumption IncreaseHuman Pressures on Water Environment
Drivers

Examples of Pressures on Water Environment

Population
GrowthIncreased competition for land and resources

Economic GrowthCan increase natural resource use and pollution
Social Change

Awareness can lower impact
Consumption lifestyles can increase impact

TechnologicalInnovation

Can increase or decrease impacts-sometimes
bothPolicies, Laws
and Finance

Can impose protection measures

Climate Change

Threatens ecological balances
Leads to shifting habitats
Compiled by Richard Connor

Expanding Human Impacts

Aug 11, 2002
http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/image/0208/earthlights02 dmsp big.jpg

Global Population change
Population
1010
Industrial
Revolution

109

Civilization
108

Agriculture
0.0535%/year

107
Ice Age

106‐10000

‐6000

‐2000

Year02000
M. Suzuki, UNU

Population Growth in the World and Asia
Population (billion)
10987WorldAsia
EastAsia
So.Cent.Asia65432101950

60708090 2000 10

2030402050

Population Growth in Asian Countries
Population (million)
10000
China
Japan
Mongolia
Korea
Bangladesh
India
Nepal
SriLanka
Cambodia
Indonesia
LaoPDR
Malaysia
MyanmarPhilippines
Thailand
Vietnam

1000

1001011950

60708090 2000 10

2030402050

Population Division of the DESA, UN Secretariat

Gross Domestic Product per Capita in USD(2000)

GDP per Capita in Asian Countries
100,000

Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Korea
Malaysia
PR China
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Thailand
VietnamJapanUSA

Global Climate
10,000Urban Environment

1,000

Industrial Pollution

Compressed Pattern ofDevelopment
100
1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Year

StanfordEnergy on Dec 18, 2008

Carbon Emission (106 ton/yr)

World Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuels
9000
8000
7000
6000

Total Emission
Emission from Gas
Emission from Liquid
Emission from Solid
Cement Production

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
01900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

Year
Boden, T.A. et al, CDIAC (2009)Change of Energy Consumption with GDP in Asian Countries(points show 1971, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2006)

Total Energy Consumption/Capita, toe101？

2050 Target

0.1JapanPRChina
India
Bangladesh
ThailandIndonesia
Vietnam
USA

0.01
100

1000

10000

GDP/Capita, USD(ppp), 2000

100000StanfordEnergy on Dec 18, 2008

Specific Energy Consumption
and Leap-Frog Development

Specific Energy
Consumption in AsianCountries

Energy Consumption per GDP(Toe/million USD)

103

102
102

103

104

105

GDP per Capita (USD, 2000)
India

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

Malaysia

China

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

USA

Points (from left) correspond to 1971, 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2006

Change of Specific Energy Consumption‐‐‐‐Experience of Japan
Specific Energy Consumption,
Energy/GNP (kcal/yen)

18161950 1940

1419701980

1960

1219901920

1020051900

8Global Environment

6

1885

4Regional Environment

20Local pollution

00.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5

GNP per Capita (million yen, 2000base)Specific Environmental Impact

Specific Environmental Impact
With Economic Growth1950 1940

1970

Kuznets Curve1980
Traditional
Path

1960

1990

1920

2005

1900

1885

Leap‐FrogNew Development Path

Economic GrowthHow to Measure Sustainability• Meaning of Traditional Economic Index （GDP)• Various Proposals on Local Sustainability
Indicators– Texas, Fort Devons, Canada,…
– Hart Indicator (Sustainability of Regions）• Indicators collected by UN/CSD• Genuine Saving by World Bank• Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI)– Correction of individual consumption by negative andpositive factors• Environmental Sustainability Index by Yale &CIEIN– Five Collective Indices• Ecological Footprint

Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI)
With Development

Environmental Systems
100

International Collaborative Efforts, 80
Greenhouse Gas Emissions,60
Reducing Transboundary Env. Pressure
40

GlobalStewardship

20

Environmental Governance,
Eco-Efficiency,
Private Sector Responsiveness,
Science and Technology

Social and Institutional
Capacity

Air Quality, Biodiversity, Land,
Water Quality and Quantity

ReducingStresses

Reducing
Air Pollution, Ecosystem Stress,
0Population Stress, Waste & Consumption
Pressures, and Water Stress,
Natural Resources Management

Reducing Human
Vulnerability
Environmental Health, Basic Human Sustenance,
Reducing Env.-Related Natural Disaster Vulnerability

Yale University and CIESIN: 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index

ESI of WEPA Countries (1/3)
Environmental Systems
10080

Cambodia
Laos
Myammar
Malaysia

60

GlobalStewardship

4020

Reducing
Stresses

0Social and Institutional
Capacity

Reducing Human
Vulnerability

Yale University and CIESIN: 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index

ESI of WEPA Countries (2/3)
Environmental Systems
1008060

GlobalStewardship

4020Thailand
Indonesia
VietnamPhilippines

Reducing
Stresses0

Social and Institutional
Capacity

Reducing Human
Vulnerability

Yale University and CIESIN: 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index

ESI of WEPA Countries (3/3)
Environmental Systems
10080

China
Korea
Japan60

GlobalStewardship

4020

Reducing
Stresses0

Social and Institutional
Capacity

Reducing Human
Vulnerability

Yale University and CIESIN: 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index

ESI of WEPA Countries (New)
Environmental Systems
1008060

GlobalStewardship4020

SriLanka
Nepal
MongolReducing
Stresses0Social and InstitutionalCapacity

Reducing Human
Vulnerability

Yale University and CIESIN: 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index

The Ecological Footprint
MEASURES
how fast we consume resources and generate waste

EnergySettlement

Timber & paper

Food & fiber

Seafood

COMPARED TO
how fast nature can absorb our waste and generate new resources.

Carbon footprint Built-up land

ForestCropland and pasture Fisheries

Ecological Footprint (Billion Hectare)

Global Ecological Footprint, 1961‐2001(Global hectare)1412

Biocapacity

Built-up land

108Food, fibre and timber

64Energy

201960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

199019952000

Ecological Footprint (red) and Biocapasity(green) of Japan(unit: global hectare per capita per year)

Fishing ground (0.28)
Forest (0.24)
Grazing land (0.04)

Built-up
Land (0.08)

Cropland(0.58)
4.9 ghaFishingGround(0.08)
0.6 ghaForest(0.27 gha)

Cropland(0.16)

Carbon(3.68 gha)Ecological Footprint of Asian Countries
Ecological Footprint (global hectare per capita)
10Japan

Korea

MongolMalaysia
China
Philippines
1
Sri Lanka
India
Nepal
Bangladesh

ThailandIndonesia
Myanmar, Lao PDR
Cambodia

Increasing
Human
Activity
DensityVietnam

Population Increase
Biocapacity (global hectare per capita)
0.1
0.1110100

Topics to be Considered• Increasing human activities (= population increases X
specific human activities) are the main cause of loosing
a sustainability of the human-environment system.
• Technology development can work favorably orunfavorably against environmental systems.
• Based upon the past experiences of adding
unnecessary environmental burdens, leap-frog paths ofdevelopments should be pursued.
• Technology innovation and social/institutional
development should be focused on minimizing impactsof human activities on environment systems.

Final Remarks
Sustainability development should be
the final target of cooperation within
Asian region.
 Environment/ecosystems in this region
must be considered as the Commons
among member countries and joint
ownership should be carefully formulated.
WEPA, 2nd phase can provide a good
platform for designing a regional
governance system for a sustainable
Asian environment.
44