Macroeconomic
Drivers in 2024
Takeaways from the Bloomberg Media Think Tank
at the World Economic Forum at DavosJANUARY 2024 - This year is poised to be one of convergenceacross signiﬁcant economic drivers. Geopolitical complexities,technological innovations, and energy transition will continue togreatly impact markets across the globe. At Bloomberg Media’s
Global Economic Think Tank, some of the world’s foremost leaders
in business and government convened to discuss the latest
proprietary insights from Bloomberg Intelligence and Bloomberg
Media Industry Accelerator as well as share their own regionalexpertise to uncover paths to drive global business.

The unprecedented numberof elections in 2024 will likely
catalyze remarkabletransformation and volatility
in global markets.
The world economy is navigating one shock after another, with geopolitical conﬂict
and stubborn inﬂation becoming ongoing stories against a post-pandemic
recovery backdrop. Looking ahead to 2024, global government and businessleaders are bracing for the next shock - a signiﬁcant election year.
Forty countries have been or will be holding key elections in 2024, reshaping not
only the current global economy but the factors that will inﬂuence it for years tocome. These regional elections stand to drive worldwide impact, with Bloomberg
Intelligence projecting these countries represent $44.2 billion of the global GDP.
While much emphasis has been placed on the Taiwanese and US elections,Bloomberg Intelligence has seen that emerging market elections in particular cantrigger signiﬁcant economic implications. With South Africa, India, Indonesia,
Pakistan and more holding elections this year, leaders can anticipate direct shifts
in energy and resource supply chains.
Acutely aware of the increasingly complex geopolitical landscape, investor
sentiments around foreign investing have indicated a heightened eﬀort to identify
countries with political stability, openness, and less geopolitical involvement toprovide greater security in this dynamic macroeconomic environment.

By the Numbers:
2024 Elections

41%

Of global populationis represented

42%

Of global GDP
is represented

Key Elections by Region
Americas
Mexico, US, Venezuela.
EMEA
EU Parliament, Russia, South Africa, UK.
Asia PaciﬁcIndia, Indonesia, Pakistan, Taiwan.
Source: Bloomberg IntelligenceIncreasing complexities
that plague thegeopolitical landscapewill pose new challenges
for energy transition.

Headwinds for Energy Transition

59% of investors say the current
geopolitical context makes it
acceptable to use fossil fuels

Geopolitical complexities areranked as the #3 risk fordeterring ESG investments

Only 57% of executives
think they’ll hit current
net-zero targets

Only 50% of companies claim
to have good visibility on ESG
supply chain risks

The dynamic geopolitical landscape is playing a signiﬁcant role inclimate-related conversations as the combination of key elections andsupply chain dependencies could hinder progress for energy transition.
In regard to elections, the upcoming US presidential race is positioned tohave signiﬁcant global impact as it will determine the future of the Inﬂation
Reduction Act.

Sources: Bloomberg Intelligence; Bloomberg Media 2023 Foreign Direct Investor Outlook

As it pertains to ESG energy sourcing, only half of companies claim to havegood visibility on ESG supply chain risks, leading to major vulnerabilities forindustries seeking to convert to greener energy.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s The ESG Market Navigator, a study
revealing how ESG has moved to the C-Suite as a backbone of ﬁnancial
and corporate strategy, these geopolitical dynamics are driving investor
decisions as geopolitics is a top three risk in deterring ESG investments.
These concerns around elections and supply chains have also inspired
governments and companies to engage in global competition to secure raw
materials, resulting in environmental champions calling for cross-borderconnectivity over competition to avoid setbacks.

Think Tank Attendee Perspective“I would like to insist on the necessary
cross-border connectivity with
infrastructure, transportation, and data…
Otherwise we risk expediting the crisis.”- Developed Market Participant

Diversifying key supply
chains becomes a toppriority, in eﬀorts toavoid the pitfalls ofsingle sourcing.
In recent years, government and company policies have spurredorganizational leaders to reexamine their supply chains, and as
geopolitical complexities leave key regional relationships inquestion, 2024 is poised to be a year of transitioning supply chainsfrom reliance to ﬂexibility.
Through Bloomberg Intelligence’s latest survey of Chief TechnologyOﬃcers, companies indicated a desire to secure supply chains in
the midst of these growing geopolitical tensions, especially as it
relates to the semiconductor sector. Over 77% of these decision
makers either have already or plan to make signiﬁcant changes intheir supplier base within the next two years.
With this increased demand, expansion into the US and Europe aswell as emerging markets across both the North or South areprojected in 2024. These actions within the semiconductor industry
could reduce dependence on existing suppliers by as much as40% by 2030 according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

Think Tank Attendee Perspective“Resilience comes from ﬂexibility.
We can’t rely on one source to drive
costs down. We need to have multiple
sources, and this is why international
cooperation is key.”- Developing Market Participant

Semiconductor Supply
Chain Diversiﬁcation
62% of CTOs have already madechanges to their supplier base

55% of CTOs plan to make changes
to their supplier base within 2 years

77% of CTOs expect to have madechanges to their base in 2 years

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

The advanced technology
industry is a critical
growth driver for foreign
direct investment
strategies.
With Bloomberg Intelligence projecting that Gen AI alone will become a$1.3 Trillion market by 2032, today’s business leaders are viewing
cross-border investments as a means to drive impactful technologicaltransformation.
According to the Bloomberg Media 2023 Foreign Direct Investor Outlook,a study uncovering the changing sentiments and interests of today’s
global business leaders in relation to cross-border ﬁnancial investments,
advanced technology has taken the #1 spot for foreign direct investors’industry of interest.
This boosted interest is making a tangible impact across markets,
shifting long-standing investment behaviors. For example, London as
an epicenter for ﬁnance saw technology become its fastest and mostdominant sector, outpacing even ﬁnancial services.
To position their countries for success, regional leaders in emerging andestablished markets are beneﬁtting from investing resources towards
AI-related startups and research institutes to drive investor interest andcapitalize on this shifting investment landscape.

Top Industries FDIs are
Looking to Invest in Globally36%

Advanced
Technology

29%

Banking /Finance

29%

Advanced
Manufacturing

Source: Bloomberg Media 2023 Foreign Direct Investor Outlook

Think Tank Attendee Perspective“What’s interesting is thattechnology now permeates
every sector, so it’s not justthe technology sector.”- Developed Market Participant

AI-related skills gaps area signiﬁcant barrier toeconomic development
across both emerging andestablished regions.
As revealed by the latest Bloomberg Intelligence survey of Chief
Information Oﬃcers, today’s business and technology leaders areexpected to increasingly invest in technology, with over 77% planning to
expand their organizational technology infrastructure capacity in 2024.
Despite having these funds and resources committed to preparing for agreater AI boom, global leaders are recognizing that one key resource
has been comparatively overlooked: skilled workers.
There is signiﬁcant tension in the workplace as recent surveys indicatethat leaders believe Gen AI is underutilized within their organizations, but
only 29% of individual contributors believe they can use AI while keeping
data secure.
Given that the potential for substantial economic gain relies on a skilledworkforce, AI education will be critical this year. While regions with close
ties to the technology industry can be seen developing strong
relationships with academia, there is room for greater cross-border andcross-organization collaboration to prepare the workforce for the futureof AI.

By the Numbers:
AI and Skilled Labor
A highly skilled workforce
is the 6th leading driverfor FDI investment

66% of IT leaders say theiremployees lack the skills
to use AI successfully

39% of workers do notplan to use AI in the future
Source: Bloomberg Media 2023 Foreign Direct Investor Outlook, Salesforce “Top Gen AI
Statistics for 2024”

Think Tank Attendee Perspective“We have companies coming to us
that are ready to integrate an AI
approach, but one of the main
obstacles is to have people with
the necessary skills.”- Developed Market ParticipantGlobal leaders view cross-border andcross-industry collaboration as core strategies
for navigating this year’s volatile market.
“I think if you identify those strategic areas inwhich we can strengthen our partnerships,
we will be able to go much faster, and that’s
what we want to do in 2024.”- Developed Market Participant“It’s interesting to seethat where in the past
there was competition
now there iscollaboration. And themost collaboration isaround areas where
there are challenges.”- Developed Market Participant“It’s important to think about synergies
otherwise we are doing the same thing. We
need partnerships internationally - and tocombine eﬀorts because we need scale.
We all invest in startups, but we need to see
unicorn startups move to scale ups and how
we can best combine the funding pots andinvestment programs.”- Developed Market Participant“You need moreknowledge sharing inbusiness. You needmore cooperation.”“I’d like to stress that theanswer is not less global
trade and cooperation, butquite the contrary. The more
we are able to improve thetrade and investment
environment with trusted
partners, the more creative
we will be in building
alliances in technology andthe green developments, themore we can get out for our
citizens - which will play arole in the areas where
policy making and politics
will lead to better
outcomes.”- Developed Market Participant- Developing Market ParticipantAbout Bloomberg Media
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To learn more about the Bloomberg Media Global Economic ThinkTank, including insights on how geopolitical complexities, technologicalinnovation, and energy transition are driving FDI.