Technical Supplement

The Use of Scenario
Analysis in Disclosureof Climate-Related
Risks and
Opportunities

June 2017

Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial DisclosureiContents
A Introduction .................................................................................................................................................... 1
B Scenario Analysis ........................................................................................................................................... 2
1. Why is Scenario Analysis Useful? ................................................................................................................................ 2
2. What Is a Scenario? ....................................................................................................................................................... 2
3. How are Organizations Using Climate-Related Scenario Analysis? ........................................................................ 3

C Developing and Applying Scenario Analysis............................................................................................... 4
1. Considerations for Building Climate Change into Scenario Analysis ..................................................................... 5
2. Analytical Choices in Scenario Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 8
3. Tools and Data ............................................................................................................................................................ 10
4. Challenges and Benefits ............................................................................................................................................ 10

Appendix 1: IEA and IPCC Climate Scenarios28F..............................................................................................12
1. Transition Scenarios ................................................................................................................................................... 15
a. IEA Transition Scenarios ...................................................................................................................................... 15
b. 2°C Transition Scenarios...................................................................................................................................... 16
c. Nationally Determined Contributions and the Importance of 2°C Scenarios ............................................... 19
d. Comparison of Relevant Parameters and Signposts ....................................................................................... 20
e. Outputs from Transition Scenarios .................................................................................................................... 24
2. Physical Risk Scenarios............................................................................................................................................... 24
a. Publicly Available Physical Scenarios ................................................................................................................. 24
b. Comparison of Relevant Signposts .................................................................................................................... 26
c. Types of Physical Risk Assessment Tools & Resources .................................................................................... 28

Appendix 2: Glossary .......................................................................................................................................30
Appendix 3: References ...................................................................................................................................33
Appendix 4: Further Reading ..........................................................................................................................35
1. Global Climate Models and Scenarios ...................................................................................................................... 35
2. Scenario Analysis - How To ........................................................................................................................................ 35
3. Scenario Analysis/Climate Modeling/Resiliency Planning – Tools and Data........................................................ 36
4. Scenario Analysis and Disclosures – Other Corporate Examples ......................................................................... 37
5. Sector-Related Climate Impacts ................................................................................................................................ 37
6. General Business and Economic Implications of Climate Change ....................................................................... 40

The Task Force gratefully acknowledges the research, work, and assistance of Charles Allison, James Stacey, Lee Solsbery,and Adam Peirce of the consultancy ERM (www.erm.com) in the preparation of this Supplement.

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and OpportunitiesiA Introduction
For many organizations, the most significant effects of climate change are likely to emerge
over the medium to longer term, but their precise timing and magnitude are uncertain. This
uncertainty presents challenges for individual organizations in understanding the potential
effects of climate change on their businesses, strategies, and financial performance. To
appropriately incorporate the potential effects of climate change into their planning
processes, organizations need to consider how climate-related risks and opportunities may
evolve and their potential business implications under different conditions. One way to assess
such implications is through the use of scenario analysis.
Scenario analysis is a well-established method for developing input to strategic plans in orderto enhance plan flexibility or resiliency to a range of future states. The use of scenario analysis
for assessing climate-related risks and opportunities and their potential business implications,however, is relatively recent. Given the importance of forward-looking assessments of climaterelated risk, the Task Force believes that scenario analysis is an important and useful tool foran organization to use, both for understanding strategic implications of climate-related risks
and opportunities and for informing stakeholders about how the organization is positioning
itself in light of these risks and opportunities. It also can provide useful forward-looking
information to investors, lenders, and insurance underwriters.
To assist organizations in using climate-related scenario analysis to support the development
of disclosures consistent with the Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related
Financial Disclosures, this technical supplement sets out and discusses:

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis

 Using scenario analysis

C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis

 Considerations for applying scenario analysis

Appendices Types of climate-related scenarios

 Analytical choices involved in scenario analysis
 Publicly available climate-related scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA),
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and others that can provide
context and a basis for company, industry or sector scenarios
The technical supplement is organized as follows. Section B discusses why scenario analysis isuseful, what a scenario is, and how selected companies have used scenarios. Section C
discusses the application of scenario analysis; key parameters, assumptions, and analyticalchoices organizations should consider when they undertake scenario analysis; and some of
the key benefits and challenges. Appendix 1 discusses in greater detail the IEA and IPCC
scenarios that may be useful as a starting point in developing organization-specific scenarios.
Appendix 2 provides a glossary of key terms, Appendix 3 lists sources referenced in this
supplement, and Appendix 4 provides other useful references for further reading.
Given both the current limited use of scenario analysis for climate-related risks andopportunities and the challenges involved in implementing a rigorous climate-related scenario
analysis process, it is important that organizations begin to use scenario analysis and develop
supporting capabilities, with the expectation that their capabilities will improve over time.

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

1

B Scenario Analysis
1. Why is Scenario Analysis Useful?
The purpose of scenario analysis is to consider and better understand how a business might
perform under different future states (i.e., its resiliency/robustness).1 In the case of climatechange, climate-related scenarios allow an organization to explore and develop anunderstanding of how the physical and transition risks and opportunities of climate change
might plausibly impact the business over time. Scenario analysis, therefore, evaluates a rangeof hypothetical outcomes by considering a variety of alternative plausible future states(scenarios) under a given set of assumptions and constraints.
A critical aspect of scenario analysis is the selection of a set of scenarios that cover areasonable variety of future outcomes, both favorable and unfavorable. While there is analmost infinite number of possible scenarios, organizations can use a limited number ofscenarios to provide the desired variety. In this regard, the Task Force is recommending thatorganizations use, at a minimum, a 2°Celsius (2°C) scenario and consider using otherscenarios most relevant to the organization’s circumstances, such as scenarios related to
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), business-as-usual (greater than 2°C) scenarios,
physical climate risk scenarios, or other challenging scenarios. 2, 3

A
Introduction

2F

B
Scenario Analysis

3F

2. What Is a Scenario?

C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
AppendicesA scenario describes a path of development leading to a particular outcome. Scenarios are notintended to represent a full description of the future, but rather to highlight central elementsof a possible future and to draw attention to the key factors that will drive future
developments. It is important to remember that scenarios are hypothetical constructs; they
are not forecasts or predictions nor are they sensitivity analyses. 4
4F

Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. A key feature of scenarios isthat they should challenge conventional wisdom about the future. In a world of uncertainty,
scenarios are intended to explore alternatives that may significantly alter the basis for“business-as-usual” assumptions.

1

2

3

4

In this context, resiliency/robustness refers to the ability of an organization’s business or investment strategy to tolerate disruptions or
adapt to changes or uncertainties in the business environment that might affect the organization’s performance and to remain effective
under most situations and conditions.
A 2°C scenario lays out a pathway and an emissions trajectory consistent with limiting the average global temperature increase to atemperature range around 2°C above pre-industrial levels with a certain probability.
NDC is a term used under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG)
emissions that all countries that ratified the Paris Agreement have committed to achieve. Prior to ratification, NDCs were referred to as
INDCs (Intended National Determined Contributions); following ratification, the “Intended” has been dropped. See Appendix 1 for a
discussion of NDC scenarios.
Scenario analysis differs from techniques such as sensitivity analysis, forecasting or value at risk (VaR). Sensitivity analysis is the process ofrecalculating outcomes under alternative assumptions to determine the impact of a particular variable. Forecasting is based on past andpresent data and analysis of trends. Often it takes the form of predicting a single, most probable trend for and into the future. Value at risk
measures the size of financial loss that a given portfolio might experience within a given time horizon and for a particular probability.
Climate VaR has a long time horizon (many years) compared with the shorter time horizon of standard financial VaR.

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities2

Scenarios should have the following characteristics: 55F

1. Plausible. The events in the scenario should be possible and the narrative credible (i.e., thedescriptions of what happened, and why and how it happened, should be believable).
2. Distinctive. Each scenario should focus on a different combination of the key factors.
Scenarios should be clearly differentiated in structure and in message, not variations on asingle theme. Multiple scenarios should be used to explore how different permutations and/or
temporal developments of the same key factors can yield very different outcomes.
3. Consistent. Each scenario should have strong internal logic. The goal of scenario analysis is
to explore the way that factors interact, and each action should have a reaction. Neither actors
nor external factors should completely overturn the evidence of current trends and positions
unless logical explanations for those changes are a central part of the scenario.
4. Relevant. Each scenario, and the set of scenarios taken as a whole, should contribute
specific insights into the future that relate to strategic and/or financial implications of climaterelated risks and opportunities.
5. Challenging. Scenarios should challenge conventional wisdom and simplistic assumptions
about the future. When thinking about the major sources of uncertainty, scenarios should try
to explore alternatives that will significantly alter the basis for business-as-usual assumptions.

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices

The Task Force believes that organizations should use a range of scenarios that illuminate
future exposure to both transition and physical climate-related risks and opportunities. In
identifying scenarios that might work best, organizations may wish to make use of existing
publicly available scenarios and models or to internally develop their own scenarios. 6 The
approach taken will depend on an organization’s needs, resources, and capabilities. Among
the range of scenarios used, the Task Force believes it is important that organizations include
a scenario consistent with a 2°C pathway given the agreed international climate changecommitments.
6F

3. How are Organizations Using Climate-Related Scenario Analysis?
A number of organizations have used scenario analysis to inform their strategic thinking andstrategy formulation. Scenario analysis in a business context was originally established by
Royal Dutch Shell,7 which has used scenarios since the early 1970s as part of a process forgenerating and evaluating its strategic options. Since then, many other firms have undertaken
and benefited from scenario analysis.
The application of scenario analysis to climate-related issues by businesses, however, is arelatively new phenomenon. Non-financial companies, such as BHP Billiton, Statoil,
ConocoPhillips, and Glencore, use scenario analysis to assess how climate change may affecttheir businesses.8 Scenario analysis, for example, enables ConocoPhillips to understand therange of risks associated with various GHG reduction scenarios, test its current portfolio of
7

5

6
7

8

J.N. Maack, Scenario analysis: a tool for task managers, Social Analysis: selected tools and techniques, Social Development Papers, Number
36, the World Bank, June 2001, Washington, DC.
The different publicly available scenarios are discussed in Appendix 1.
Paul J.H. Shoemaker and Cornelius A.J.M. van der Heijden. "Integrating scenarios into strategic planning at Royal Dutch/Shell." Planning
Review, Vol. 20 Issue: 3, pp.41-46. 1992.
Climate Change: Portfolio Analysis, BHP Billiton, 2015; Views After Paris, BHP Billiton, 2016; Energy Perspectives 2016: Long Term Macro andMarket Outlook, Statoil; Scenarios in the capital allocation process, ConocoPhillips; Climate change considerations for ourbusiness. Glencore, 2016.

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

3

assets and investment opportunities against these scenarios, and assess where weaknesses
may exist, assisting with capital allocation prioritization.9
Financial institutions also conduct scenario analysis to test the resiliency of their portfolios
against a range of issues, including climate change. For example, pension funds, such as
CalSTRS, New York State Common Retirement Fund (NYSCRF), and the Environment Agency
Pension Fund (EAPF), and asset managers, such as PGGM, have conducted scenario analysesof their investment risk. The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) also recently
assessed the impact of environmental factors on the credit risk of its loans using a stresstesting approach, a form of scenario analysis.10 Appendix 3 and Appendix 4 provide links tothese and other examples.

C Developing and Applying Scenario Analysis
Organizations just beginning to use scenario analysis may choose to start with qualitative
scenario narratives or storylines to help management explore the potential range of climatechange implications for the organization. 11 As an organization gains experience withqualitative scenario analysis, the scenarios and associated analysis of development paths canuse quantitative information to illustrate potential pathways and outcomes. For organizations
with significant experience conducting scenario analysis, greater rigor and sophistication in
the use of data sets and quantitative models and analysis may be warranted. Quantitative
approaches may be achieved by using existing external scenarios and models (e.g., those
provided by third-party providers) or by organizations developing their own, in-housemodeling capabilities. The choice of approach will depend on an organization’s needs,
resources, and capabilities. Organizations that are likely to be significantly impacted byclimate-related transition and/or physical risks should consider some level of quantitative
scenario analysis.
15F

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices

Organizations should include scenario analysis as part of their strategic planning and/or
enterprise risk management processes by: identifying and defining a range of scenarios, including a 2°C scenario, that provide a
reasonable diversity of potential future climate states;

 evaluating the potential resiliency of their strategic plans to the range of scenarios; and using this assessment, identify options for increasing the organization’s strategic andbusiness resiliency to plausible climate-related risks and opportunities throughadjustments to strategic and financial plans.
Over time, organizations can improve disclosure through documenting: management’s assessment of the resiliency of its strategic plans to climate change;
 the range of scenarios used to inform management’s assessment, including key inputs,
assumptions, and analytical methods and outputs (including potential business impacts
and management responses to them); and the sensitivity of the results to key assumptions.

Scenarios in the capital allocation process, ConocoPhillips.
Impact of Environmental Factors on Credit Risk of Commercial Banks, ICBC.
11
Rounsevell, Mark D. and Marc J. Metzger (2010). Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment. WIREs
Climate Change, 1: 606-619.
910Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

41. Considerations for Building Climate Change into Scenario Analysis
Recognizing the benefits of scenario analysis and the need to minimize implementation costs,
organizations undertaking scenario analysis for the first time may want to consider startingwith a simple, yet robust, process for incorporating climate-related considerations into theirscenarios.
First, an organization may want to familiarize itself with relevant scenarios developed by the
IEA and the IPCC. 12The scenarios developed by these two organizations have long been usedby scientists and policy analysts to assess future vulnerability to climate change. Producing
these scenarios requires estimates of future population levels, economic activity, the structureof governance, social values, and patterns of technological change and hence can serve as“meta-scenarios” to provide an overall context and set of macro trends for the development ofcompany or sector-specific scenarios. Appendix 1 provides a more in-depth discussion of the
IEA and IPCC scenarios.
16F

Second, an organization needs to understand the nature of the climate-related risks andopportunities it may face. Each organization faces a different blend of climate-related risks
and opportunities. The business impacts related to climate change may vary significantly
depending on the industry and economic sector(s)/sub-sector(s) in which an organization
operates. Business impacts may also vary significantly depending on the following:A
Introduction

 the geographic location of the organization’s value chain (both upstream anddownstream);

B
Scenario Analysis

 the organization’s assets and nature of operations;C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis

 the structure and dynamics of the organization’s supply and demand markets;

Appendices the organization’s other key stakeholders.

 the organization’s customers; andFor investors, scenario analysis may be applied in different ways, depending on the nature of
the asset(s) being considered. For example, some investors may develop energy transition
pathways that they believe to be either optimal and/or likely and use those pathways tomeasure individual potential investments and drive engagement activities. Other investors
may consider how climate-related scenarios relate to the future performance of particularsectors, regions, or asset classes. The results may show that some portions of a portfolio are
set to benefit from a particular scenario, while others face a loss in value. Such results, while
not conclusive, can be a useful additional factor in determining where to prioritize risk
management activities and where to consider making additional allocations.
Many organizations already disclose their views on climate-related risks and opportunities at ahigh, qualitative level. The Task Force’s final report briefly describes several frameworks forreporting climate-related information, many of which include disclosures around risks andopportunities. Such information provides a starting point for scenario analysis and for further
disclosure.

12

These scenarios can be broadly assigned into two categories: (1) scenarios that articulate different pathways in the energy and economic
system that would result in a certain level or trajectory of GHG emissions and resulting GHG concentrations in the atmosphere (transition
scenarios) and (2) scenarios that articulate different pathways that account for physical changes arising from different levels of GHG
concentrations (physical risk scenarios).

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

5Figure 1 provides a summary of the typical categories of climate-related risks andopportunities an organization should consider when applying scenario analysis. Figure 2 (p. 7)
presents an indicative process for applying climate-related scenario analysis, reflecting thoseclimate-related risks and opportunities.

Figure 1

Typical Categories of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities
Market and Technology Shifts

Reputation

Policies and investments to deliver a low
carbon emissions economy.

Growing expectations for responsible
conduct from stakeholders, including
investors, lenders, and consumers.

‒ Reduced market demand for highercarbon products/commodities‒ Increased demand for energy-efficient,lower-carbon products and services‒ New technologies that disrupt markets‒ Opportunity to enhance reputation andbrand value‒ Risk of loss of trust and confidence inmanagement

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis

Policy and Legal

Physical Risks

C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis

An evolving patchwork of requirements atinternational, national, and state level.

Chronic changes and more frequent andsevere extremes of climate.

Appendices‒ Increased input/operating costs for highcarbon activities‒ Increased business interruption anddamage across operations and supply
chains with consequences for input
costs, revenues, asset values, andinsurance claims‒ Threats to securing license to operate
for high carbon activities‒ Emerging concern about liabilities

Sources:
CDP, “Climate Change Questionnaire,” 2017.
Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures, Final Report: Recommendations of the Task Force on
Climate-related Financial Disclosures, June 2017.

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

6Figure 2

A Process for Applying Scenario Analysis to Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

1

Ensure governance is in place: Integrate scenario analysis into strategic planning and/or enterprise risk management processes. Assign oversight torelevant board committees/sub-committees. Identify which internal (and external) stakeholders to involve and how.

2

3
Assess materiality ofclimate-related risksMarket andTechnology
Shifts

Policy and
Legal

Reputation

Identify and define rangeof scenarios
Scenarios inclusive of arange of transition andphysical risks relevant to
the organization

5
Evaluate business impacts

Identify potential
responses

Impact on:
 Input costs

Responses might include Operating costs Changes to business model Revenues

 Changes to portfolio mix

 Supply chain Business interruption

Physical
Risks

What are the current andanticipated organizational
exposures to climate-relatedrisks and opportunities? Do
these have the potential to
be material in the future?
Are organizational
stakeholders concerned?

64 Timing

What scenarios (andnarratives) are appropriate,given the exposures?
Consider input parameters,
assumptions, and analyticalchoices. What reference
scenario(s) should be used?

 Investments in capabilities
and technologies

Location

Evaluate the potential effects
on the organization’s
strategic and financial
position under each of thedefined scenarios. Identify
key sensitivities.

Use the results to identify
applicable, realistic decisions
to manage the identified
risks and opportunities.
What adjustments tostrategic/financial plans
would be needed?

Document and disclose: Document the process; communicate to relevant parties; be prepared to disclose key inputs, assumptions, analytical methods,
outputs, and potential management responses.

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

72. Analytical Choices in Scenario Analysis
In constructing scenarios and conducting scenario analysis, organizations face a number ofchoices and considerations. These will affect whether scenarios are applied consistently,
analyses and disclosures are comparable, and the process is efficiently applied.
Three major categories of considerations are:

 Parameters Used (e.g., discount rate, GDP, other macro-economic variables,
demographic variables) Assumptions Made (e.g., assumptions related to policy changes, technology
development/deployment, energy mix, price of key commodities or inputs,
geographical tailoring of transitional and physical impacts, and timing of potential
impacts)

 Analytical Choices (e.g., choice of scenarios, time horizons, supporting data andmodels)All scenarios, including climate-related scenarios, contain a series of critical parameters andassumptions that define the key drivers and development pathways over the scenario’s
timeframe. Organizations should first endeavor to identify and understand the key drivers of
their business performance and look to build these into their scenarios. Figure 3 (p. 9) outlines
several climate change parameters that may have a material impact on organizations’business performance. Figure 3 (p. 9) may also serve as a roadmap for investors and otherstakeholders in analyzing organizations’ disclosures around scenario analysis.

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices

Organizations should carefully consider the key parameters, assumptions, and other analyticalchoices made during scenario analysis as well as the potential impacts or effects that are
identified and how those results are considered by management. Organizations should
consider disclosing this information where appropriate. In particular, organizations areencouraged to disclose the approach used for selecting scenarios used as well as theunderlying assumptions for each scenario regarding how a particular pathway might develop(e.g., emergence and deployment of key technologies, policy developments and timing,
geopolitical environment around climate policies). This information will be important for an
organization to disclose and discuss, including the sensitivity of various assumptions tochanges in key parameters such as carbon prices, input prices, customer preferences, etc., sothat investors and other stakeholders have a clear understanding of the scenario process—not only the outcomes each scenario describes, but the pathway envisioned by anorganization that leads to that outcome (i.e., the how and why of those outcomes).
Transparency around key parameters, assumptions, and analytical choices will help to support
comparability of results between different scenarios used by an organization and acrossorganizations. In turn, this will support the evaluation, by analysts and investors, of therobustness of organizations’ strategies across a range of plausible impacts, thereby
supporting better risk and capital allocation decisions.
Given the number of variables and analytical approaches to scenario analysis, there can be awide range of scenarios that describe various outcomes. Given this, direct comparability
across organizations is likely to be a very real challenge. This underpins the importance oftransparency across the three categories of considerations. Keeping in mind that improved
disclosure and transparency are important for comparability, organizations should consider
disclosing as many of these considerations as possible and endeavor to increase their levels of
disclosure over time.

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities8Figure 3

Key Considerations: Parameters, Assumptions, Analytical Choices, and Impacts
Parameters/Assumptions
Discount rate – what discount rate does theorganization apply to discount future value?
Carbon price – what assumptions are made about how
carbon price(s) would develop over time (within tax
and/or emissions trading frameworks), geographic
scope of implementation, whether the carbon pricewould apply only at the margin or as a base cost,
whether it is applied to specific economic sectors or
across the whole economy and in what regions? Is acommon carbon price used (at multiple points in time?)
or differentiated prices? Assumptions about scope andmodality of a CO2 price via tax or trading scheme?
Energy demand and mix – what would be the resulting
total energy demand and energy mix across different
sources of primary energy e.g. coal/ oil/ gas/
nuclear/renewables (sub-categories)? How does thisdevelop over time assuming supply/end-use efficiency
improvements? What factors are used for energy
conversion efficiencies of each source category and for
end-use efficiency in each category over time?
Price of key commodities/products – what conclusions
does the organization draw, based on the input
parameters/ assumptions, about the development overtime of market prices for key inputs, energy (e.g. coal,oil, gas, electricity)?
Macro-economic Variables – what GDP rate, employment rate, and other economic variables are used?
Demographic variables – what assumptions are madeabout population growth and/or migration?
Efficiency – to what extent are positive aspects ofefficiency gains/clean energy transition/physical changes
incorporated into scenarios and business planning?
Geographical tailoring of transition impacts - whatassumptions does the organization make about
potential differences in input parameters across regions,countries, asset locations, and markets?
Technology – does the organization make assumptions
about the development of performance/cost andresulting levels of deployment over time of various key
supply and demand-side technologies (e.g. solar PV/CSP,
wind, energy storage, biofuels, CCS/CCUS, nuclear,unconventional gas, electric vehicles, and efficiency
technologies in other key sectors including industrial
and infrastructure)?
Policy – what are assumptions about strength ofdifferent policy signals and their development over time(e.g. national headline carbon emissions targets; energy
efficiency or technology standards and policies in key
sectors; subsidies for fossil fuels; subsidies or support
for renewable energy sources and for CCS/CCUS)
Climate sensitivity assumptions - assumptions oftemperature increase relative to CO2 increase?

Analytical Choices

Business Impacts/Effects

Scenarios – what scenarios
does the organization use fortransition impact analysis andwhich sources are used toassess physical impact both forcentral/base case and forsensitivity analyses?

Earnings – what conclusions
does the organization draw
about impact on earnings andhow does it express that
impact (e.g. as EBITDA,
EBITDA margins, EBITDA
contribution, dividends)?

Quantitative vs. qualitative
or “directional” – is the
scenario exercise fully
quantitative or a mix ofquantitative and qualitative?

Costs – what conclusions
does the organization draw
about the implications for its
operating/production costs
and their development overtime?

Timing – how does theorganization consider timing of
implications under scenarios
e.g. is this considered at a
decadal level 2020; 2030; 2040;
2050
Scope of application – is theanalysis applied to the wholevalue chain (inputs, operations
and markets), or just direct
effects on specific business
units / operations?
Climate models/data sets –which climate models and data
sets support the assessment ofclimate-related risks?
Physical risks – whenassessing physical risks, which
specific risks have been
included and their severity(e.g., temperature,
precipitation, flooding, storm
surge, sea level rise,
hurricanes, water availability/
drought, landslides, wildfires orothers)? To what extent has theorganization assessed thephysical impact to its portfolio(e.g. largest assets, mostvulnerable assets) and to what
extent have physical risks been
incorporated in investment
screening and future businessstrategy?
To what extent has the impact
on prices and availability in thewhole value chain been
considered, including knock on
effects from suppliers,
shippers, infrastructure, andaccess to customers?

Revenues – what conclusions
does the organization draw
about the implications for therevenues from its key
commodities/ products/
services and theirdevelopment over time?
Assets – what are theimplications for asset valuesof various scenarios?
Capital Allocation/
investments – what are theimplications for capex andother investments?
Timing – what conclusions
does the organization draw
about development of costs,
revenues and earnings acrosstime (e.g. 5/10/20 year)?
Responses – what
information does theorganization provide in
relation to potential impacts(e.g. intended changes tocapital expenditure plans,changes to portfolio throughacquisitions and divestments,
retirement of assets, entry
into new markets,
development of newcapabilities etc.)?
Business Interruption due
to physical impacts – what is
the organization’s conclusion
about its potential businessinterruption/productivity loss
due to physical impacts both
direct effects on theorganization’s own assets andindirect effects of supply
chain/product delivery
disruptions?

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

93. Tools and Data
A number of tools currently exist to allow organizations to begin using scenario analysis toassess the implications of climate change. This section briefly discusses some selected toolsthat organizations may find useful. For a fuller list of tools and data sources, see Appendix 4.
Two examples of portals with a range of tools and data are the International Institute ofApplied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the European Climate Information Portal (CLIPC). The
IIASA provides a wide variety of land, energy, transition, and water tools as well as online
databases.13 Some of the online databases it provides include scenario databases for energy,
GHG mitigation strategies, and climate policies consistent with 2°C and IPCC scenarios.
CLIPC provides access to climate information of direct relevance to a wide variety ofusers, such as consultants, policy makers, private sector decision makers and scientists, butalso interested members of the general public. 14 This “one-stop-shop” platform allows you tofind answers to questions related to climate change and climate impact. CLIPC information
includes data from satellite and in-situ observations, climate models, data re-analyses, andtransformed data products enabling assessment of climate change impact indicators.
Furthermore, CLIPC provides a toolbox to generate, compare, manipulate, and combine
indicators.
19F

Finally, there are a number of topic or sector specific tools that may be of use to various
industries:
A
Introduction

 The World Resources Institute (WRI) built a tool/database, known as Aqueduct, to help
companies, investors, governments, and communities better understand where andhow water risks are emerging around the world (see Appendix 1 Section 2.c. for further
information on Aqueduct).

B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides a tool known as the Climate
Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT), which is a risk assessment
application for utilities in adapting to extreme weather events through a better
understanding of current and future climate conditions. The U.S EPA also provides tools
and guidance for water utilities called Creating Resilient Water Utilities (CRWU). CRWU
provides water utilities with practical tools to increase climate change resilience andunderstand long-term adaptation options.

 The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and Copenhagen Centre forEnergy Efficiency’s Best Practices and Case Studies for Industrial Energy Efficiency
Improvement.

 The United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization’s Modelling System for
Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (MOSAICC).

4. Challenges and Benefits
Scenario analysis is a well-established method for developing strategic plans that are more
flexible and robust to a range of future states. It is particularly useful for assessing issues withpossible outcomes that are highly uncertain, that play out over the medium to longer term,
and that are potentially disruptive. Scenario analysis can help organizations better frame
strategic issues; assess the range of potential management actions that may be needed;
The IIASA is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic,
technological, and social change in the twenty-first century.
14
The CLIPC consortium is funded by the European Union’s Seventh framework programme (FP7) and brings together the key institutions in
Europe working on developing and making available datasets on climate observations and modelling, and on impact analysis.
13

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

10

engage more productively in strategic conversations; and identify indicators to monitor theexternal environment. Importantly, climate-related scenario analysis can provide thefoundation for more effective engagement with investors on an organization’s strategic andbusiness resiliency.
Conducting climate-related scenario analysis, however, is not without challenges. First, mostscenarios have been developed for global and macro assessments of potential climate-related
impacts that can inform scientists and policy makers. These climate-related scenarios do notalways provide the ideal level of transparency, range of data outputs, and functionality of toolsthat would facilitate their use in a business or investment context. For example:

 A majority of transition scenarios provide outputs such as the energy mix under given
circumstances in the future, but not sector- or activity-specific results in most instances.

 The outputs of climate modeling of physical scenarios, undertaken within theframework of the IPCC, are currently not easily accessible to the wide majority oforganizations.
Second, the availability of data and the granularity of data can be a challenge for organizationsattempting to assess various energy and technology pathways or carbon constraints indifferent jurisdictions and geographic locations.

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
AppendicesThird, the use of climate-related scenario analysis to assess potential business implications ofclimate change is still at an early stage. Although a handful of the world’s largest companies
and investors are applying climate-related scenario analysis as part of their strategic planningand risk management processes, many organizations are just being to explore its use. Sharing
experiences and approaches to scenario analysis across organizations, therefore, is critical toadvancing the use of scenario analysis. Organizations may be able to play an important role inthis regard by facilitating information and experience exchanges among themselves;collectively developing tools, data sets, and methodologies; and working to set standards.
Addressing these challenges may require further work by industry groups, NGOs, and official
bodies, both individually and collectively, to: further develop applicable 2°C (or lower) scenarios at the sector and geographic level
and create industry-specific (financial and non-financial) guidance for preparers andusers of climate-related scenarios;

 further develop, and improve access to, methodologies, data sets, and tools that allow
organizations to more effectively conduct scenario-based analysis of transition andphysical risk at more granular industry, geographic, and temporal levels;

 develop and refine accepted good practice for scenario-based climate-related financial
disclosure and facilitate uptake by sectors most greatly impacted by climate change; establish stronger norms for better, relevant disclosure around scenario analysis; and develop guidance for investors to better understand and use scenario-related
disclosures.

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

11Appendix 1: IEA and IPCC Climate Scenarios 15
28F

Because it is difficult to project future emissions and other human factors that influence
climate, scientists use a range of scenarios with various assumptions about future economic,
social, technological, and environmental conditions. Such scenarios have been very useful in
helping scientists to investigate possible ramifications of global climate change and topolicymakers in assessing mitigation and adaptation options. However, they often have
limitations for assessing the business implications of climate change at a local or industry
sector level. Nevertheless, global climate-related scenarios are an important contextual andmethodological starting point for organizations conducting scenario analysis. This appendix
describes some of the common global climate-related scenarios used by the international
scientific community.
Climate-related scenarios have long been used by scientists and policy analysts to assess
future vulnerability to climate change. Producing these scenarios requires estimates of future
population levels, economic activity, the structure of governance, social values, and patterns oftechnological change; economic and energy modelling also are often used to analyze andquantify the effects of such drivers in climate change.
These scenarios can be broadly assigned into two categories: (1) scenarios that articulatedifferent policy outcomes (i.e., level of temperature increase) and the energy and economic
pathways that would result, with some probability, in achieving temperature increases aroundthe desired outcome, (transition scenarios) and (2) scenarios that start with a range ofatmospheric GHG concentration and articulate the likely resulting temperature ranges. IEA
scenarios tend to follow the first approach and IPCC scenarios the second approach.

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices

Scenario pathways to deliver a given limit to warming are commonly referred to as “transition
scenarios.” Transition scenarios typically present plausible assumptions about thedevelopment of climate policies and the deployment of “climate-friendly” technologies to limit
GHG emissions. Transition scenarios draw conclusions, often based on modeling, about how
policy and technology regarding energy supply and GHG emissions interact with economic
activity, energy consumption, and GDP among other key factors. Such scenarios may havematerial consequences for organizations in certain sectors of the economy in the short andmedium term as well as longer term. These scenarios can reflect a faster or slower transition
depending on different rates of change of key parameters (e.g., the rate of technology
development and deployment; changes and timing of key policies; etc.). The IEA and others
produce a number of transition scenarios.
Patterns of physical impacts attributable to climate change can be termed “physical climate
scenarios.” Physical climate scenarios typically present the results of global climate models(referred to as “general circulation models”) that show the response of the Earth’s climate tochanges in atmospheric GHG concentrations. IPCC scenarios based on “Representative
Concentration Pathways” (RCPs) are examples of physical climate change scenarios adopted
by the IPCC in its 5th Assessment Report (AR5). 16 Model results are frequently “downscaled” to29F

The Task Force gratefully acknowledges the research, work and assistance of Charles Allison, James Stacey, Lee Solsbery and Adam Peirce ofthe consultancy ERM in the preparation of this Appendix.
16
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are referred to as pathways to emphasize that their primary purpose is to provide timedependent projections of atmospheric GHG concentrations, both a specific long-term concentration outcome and the trajectory that istaken over time to reach that outcome. They are representative of several different scenarios that have similar radiative forcing andemissions characteristics and are intended to expedite the preparation of integrated scenarios. The IPCC’s current RCPs describe four
possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on the volume of greenhouse gases emitted in the future—RCP 2.6
assumes that global annual GHG emissions (measured in CO2-equivalents) peak between 2010-2020, with emissions declining substantially
15

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities12derive potential local-level changes in climate, which are then used to generate scenarios ofimpacts from climate change (first order impacts such as flooding or drought, second order
impacts such as loss of crop production, and third order impacts such as famine). 17 Physicalrisk scenarios assist organizations in exploring questions such as:
30F What type of physical impacts might there be?
 What if the physical consequences of climate change become more severe?
 When, where, to whom, and to what degree might they be felt?
While some organizations will likely be more affected by transition risk (e.g., fossil fuel andenergy-intensive manufacturers), others will be more affected by physical climate risk (e.g.,
those reliant upon agriculture or long-lived infrastructure). However, both transition andphysical considerations are complementary when assessing climate-related impacts and bothare required to understand the full implications of climate change and the resilience oforganizations to those implications (Figure A1and Figure A2, p.14 )Figure A2

For example, lower transition risk is likely to result in higher levels of physical risk from climatechange. Organizations, therefore, need to use scenarios that allow them to consider a range ofpotential transition and physical effects on their strategy and financial planning and how theseeffects compare to various publicly available scenarios and national goals.
A
Introduction

Figure A1

Transition-Physical Risk Conceptual Trade-Offs

B
Scenario Analysis

> 6°C

C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices2°C-1.5°C

thereafter; RCP 4.5 assumes that emissions peak around 2040, then decline; in RCP 6, emissions peak around 2080, then decline; while RCP
8.5, assumes that emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “Towards
new Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies,” September, 2007. IPCC Expert Meeting
Report).
17
For example, see Wilby, R.G., et al., “Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Statistical Downscaling Methods.”

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

13

Figure A2

Interplay between Transition and Physical Impacts
Carbon Crossroads
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explores four potential futures
depending on what policies governments adopt to cut emissions.

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices*The four RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios each project a certain amount ofcarbon to be emitted by 2100 and, as a result, lead to a different amount of human-driven climatechange. Climate change will continue after 2100 and elevated temperatures will remain for many
centuries after human CO2 emissions cease.
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Climate
Change: Action, Trends, and Implications for Business, Cambridge University Press, 2013.

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

141. Transition Scenarios
In constructing scenarios about the potential impact of the transition to a low-carbon
economy on an organization, a starting point may be one or more publicly available climaterelated scenarios. A number of published scenarios are available that lay out various plausible
pathways to particular target outcomes (e.g., specific temperature increases or CO2
concentration levels). These scenarios have varying assumptions about the likely timing ofpolicy changes, technology adoption, changes in energy mix, and other factors to achieve a
climate-friendly economy that may be useful to a company in conducting its own scenario
analysis. For example, Figure A3 shows the assumptions about energy mix and share of fossil
fuels used in three of the IEA scenarios.
Figure A3

IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) Scenarios to 2040
25,000

Energy Demand (Mtoe)

Fossil Fuels 80%

A
Introduction

Fossil Fuels 75%

20,000Fossil Fuels 60%

Renewables
Nuclear15,000Natural Gas

Renewables
Nuclear

Nuclear10,000

Coal
Coal

B
Scenario Analysis

5,000

C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis

Renewables

Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Coal
Oil

Oil

IEA WEO Current Policies scenario

IEA WEO New Policies scenario

Oil
IEA WEO 450 scenario

Appendices

Box A1 (p. 17) and Box A2 (p. 18) summarize various published transition scenarios andassociated target pathways, including: six different IEA scenarios around various assumed pathways and temperature increases and a number of alternative, publicly available 2°C scenarios and tools, such as International
Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) REmap, Greenpeace Advanced Energy [R]evolution,
and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP).
Organizations, therefore, have a variety of choices available to them on plausible future
development pathways to reference when carrying out their own scenario analysis.
a. IEA Transition Scenarios
The most well-known and widely used and reviewed scenarios for transition to a low carbon
economy are those prepared by the IEA. A majority of analyses conducted by academic andindustry analysts are built upon or compared with the IEA scenarios. The IEA data andscenarios capture the entire energy chain, but not “non-energy” sectors such as land use/land
use change/forestry (LULUCF) and process emissions from industry that do not involve fuelTechnical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities15

combustion. These scenarios can be used to qualitatively assess risks associated with different
pathways, but are not suited to producing precise estimates. 18
31F

b. 2°C Transition Scenarios
One type of transition scenario is a so-called 2°C scenario, which lays out a pathway and anemissions trajectory consistent with limiting the average global temperature increase to atemperature range around 2°C with a stated level of probability. 19 Effectively, a 2°C scenario
asks the question “if the world limits warming at or below 2°C, what are the pathways forachieving that goal?”20 It is useful for comparison against alternative scenarios. A variety of 2°C
scenarios is available or an organization can develop its own 2°C scenario.
32F

3

It is important to note that, of the IEA scenarios, only the IEA 450ppm and 2DS scenarios
model a 2°C future, although the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) and
Bridge scenarios also acknowledge 2°C as a policy objective. 21 A number of other alternative
2°C scenarios and tools are available in addition to the IEA 450 and 2DS scenarios; thesealternatives are potentially helpful to organizations seeking to understand possible futuretransition pathways.
34F

In designing a 2°C scenario, organizations may wish to consider publicly available scenariosthat are (1) used, referenced, and issued by an independent body; (2) wherever possible,
supported by publicly available data sets; (3) updated on a regular basis; and (4) linked tofunctional tools (e.g., visualizers, calculators, and mapping tools) that can be applied byorganizations. Examples of 2°C scenarios that presently meet most of these criteria include:
IEA 2DS, IEA 450, DDPP, and IRENA. These publicly available scenarios can help inform
development of an organization’s own scenarios or they can be used directly as a frameworkfor strategic planning discussions. However, it is important to note that these scenarios do notconsider impacts at a sufficiently granular level for all jurisdictions or sectors.

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
AppendicesThis is borne out by the recognition that, in recent years, the IEA scenarios have significantly under forecast the deployment of renewables(Sergey Paltsev, “Energy Scenarios: The Value and Limits of Scenario Analysis,” MIT CEEPR WP 2016-007, 2016).
19
Limiting the temperature increase to below 2°C (relative to pre-industrial levels) is a stated goal of the 2015 UNFCCC Paris Agreement thatentered into force on November 4, 2016.
20
This approach can be contrasted with the approach used in IPCC scenarios, which fix the amount of GHG concentration in the atmosphereand analyze the resulting changes in global temperatures (and other variables such as precipitation) at various future points (i.e., out to2035, mid-century [2046-65], and end of century [2081-2100]) relative to pre-industrial levels.
21
The IEA 450 scenario is premised on a 50% likelihood of keeping below 2°C.
18

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

16Box A1IEA Scenarios
IEA WEO Current Policies Scenario (projected to generate warming of 6°C)
The Current Policies Scenario considers only those policies that have been formally adopted by governments.
According to the UNEP, it sets out “a business-as-usual future in which governments fail to follow through onpolicy proposals that have yet to be backed-up by legislation or other bases for implementation and do not
introduce any other policies that affect the energy sector.” 22 This ‘No New Measures’ Scenario provides a
35F

comparison point against which new policies can be assessed.
IEA WEO New Policies Scenario (projected to generate warming of 4°C)
The New Policies Scenario is the central scenario of WEO. It takes into account the policies and implementing
measures affecting energy markets that have been adopted, together with relevant policy proposals, even thoughspecific measures necessary to put them into effect may need to be fully developed. The WEO report makes acase-by-case judgment (often cautious) of the extent to which policy proposals will be implemented. This is done
in view of the many institutional, political, and economic obstacles that exist, as well as, in some cases, a lack ofdetail in announced intentions about how they will be implemented. 23
36F

IEA INDC Paris Agreement Scenario (projected to limit warming to 2.6°C)
The INDC Scenario assesses implications of the INDCs submitted before COP21 as the basis for the Paris
Agreement. “The share of fossil fuels in the world energy mix declines, but is still around 75% in 2030. The rate of
growth in coal and oil demand slows but demand does not decline, while gas use marches higher. Renewables
become the leading source of electricity by 2030, but sub-critical coal-fired capacity declines only slightly. The
carbon intensity of the power sector improves by 30%.” 24 Carbon capture and storage (CCS) achieves no more
37F

than marginal penetration by 2030. Increased efficiency measures across sectors reduce the energy used toprovide energy services, without reducing the services themselves.
IEA Bridge Scenario (keeps world on path to 2°C limit to 2025, but more needed after 2025)
The IEA sought to contribute to practical discussions about near-term GHG mitigation options amongst
policymakers and business planners by developing the Bridge Scenario. The purpose of the Bridge Scenario is tofacilitate adoption of methods through which the movement towards a peak in global energy-related GHG
emissions can be achieved by each country or region individually. This Bridge Scenario is not, in itself, a pathway
to the 2°C target – additional technology developments and policy requirements for such a pathway are set out in
the WEO 450 Scenario.
IEA WEO 450ppm Scenario (projected to limit warming to 2°C)
The WEO 450 Scenario takes a different approach. “It adopts a specified outcome: achievement of the necessary
action in the energy sector to limit the rise in long-term average global temperature (with a likelihood of 50%) to
2°C and offers steps by which that goal might be achieved.” 25 Many separate efforts are required to reduce
38F

energy-related CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2040, including stronger deployment of technologies that are familiar
and available at commercial scale today, which will deliver close to 60% of the emissions reductions; the buildingof significant additional nuclear capacity; and rapid CCS expansion after 2025 matching the pace of expansion ofgas-fired capacity between 1990 and 2010.
IEA ETP 2DS Scenario (projected to limit warming to 2°C)
The IEA has a separate annual publication called “Energy Technology Perspectives” (ETP) which provides scenario
analysis of lower carbon technology development and deployment in various sectors. ETP 2016 lays out an energy
system development pathway and an emissions trajectory consistent with at least a 50% chance of limiting the
average global temperature rise to 2°C. The 2DS sets the target of cutting CO2 emissions by almost 60% by 2050
(compared with 2013), followed by continued decline after 2050 until carbon neutrality is reached. The 2DS
identifies changes that help ensure a secure and affordable energy system in the long run, while emphasizing thattransforming the energy sector is vital, but not enough on its own.

UNEP, Best Practices and Case Studies for Industrial Energy Efficiency Improvement. February, 2016.
IEA, World Energy Model Documentation 2015 Version, 2015.
24
IEA, “Energy and Climate Change,” 2015.
25
Ibid.
22
23

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

17Box A2

Other 2°C Scenarios
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) REmap (2016)
This scenario outlines a plan to double the share of renewables in the world's energy mix by 2030. A renewablegeneration share of 36% is required by 2030, up from 18% currently and a quadrupling of ”modern” renewables
due to the phase out of traditional uses of biomass (e.g. fuel wood) energy. “REmap determines the realistic
potential for countries, regions and the world to scale up renewables, starting with separate country analyses
done in collaboration with country experts, and then aggregating these results to arrive at a global picture. The
analysis encompasses 40 countries representing 80% of global energy use. The road map focuses not just on
renewable power technologies, but also technology options in heating, cooling, and transport. In determining thepotential to scale up renewables, REmap focuses on possible technology pathways.” 26
39F

Greenpeace Advanced Energy [R]evolution (5th Edition)
This scenario sets out an ambitious pathway toward a fully decarbonized energy system by 2050. The scenario
adds significant additional efforts to the basic Energy [R]evolution scenario (which is also covered in the latest
edition of Greenpeace’s Advanced Energy [R]evolution). It is based on the basic scenario, which includes significant
efforts to exploit opportunities for energy efficiency, along with large-scale integration of renewables, biofuels,and hydrogen into the energy mix. The advanced scenario requires much stronger efforts to move energy
systems towards a 100% renewable energy supply. Consumption pathways remain similar, but faster introductionof these technologies leads to complete decarbonization. The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2014 Current Policies
Scenario serves as the reference case.
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP)The DDPP fills a gap in the climate policy dialogue by providing, in the form of deep decarbonization pathways(DDPs), a clear and tangible understanding of what will be required for countries to reduce emissions, consistent
with the 2°C limit. “The DDPP framework has been developed and utilized by a consortium led by The Institute for
Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI) and the Sustainable Development Solutions
Network (SDSN). The DDPP is a global collaboration of scientific research teams from leading research institutionsin 16 of the world’s largest greenhouse gas-emitting countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany,
India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, U.K. and U.S.” 27 The research teams
40F

developed these blueprints for change, sector by sector and over time, for each physical infrastructure of the 16
countries, to inform decision makers of the technological and cost requirements of different options for meeting
their country’s emissions reduction goal. DDPs begin with an emissions target in 2050 and determine the steps
required to get there. This tool therefore allows the user to create any number of 2°C pathways.
IPCC RCP 2.6
The IPCC draws on an authoritative group of academic scenario development teams around the world, many ofthem organised in the integrated assessment modelling consortium (IAMC). These teams have produced a set of
GHG concentration scenarios that result in a range of warming outcomes. The scenarios from this can be found in
the latest IPCC report (AR5) as well as an online database and spreadsheets with input and output variables. This
diverse range of models show there are multiple pathways that can limit warming to 2°C, including decarbonising
the power sector by mid-century, electrifying as many energy services as possible, substituting residual fossil fueluse in the transport, buildings, and industry sectors by biofuels and achieving negative emissions in the land-use
sector (‘carbon sinks’) by end of the century. The scenarios also highlight efficiency enhancements and behaviourchanges as a key mitigation strategy.

26
27

International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), Remap. 2016.
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP), “About,” DDPP, 2016.

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities18

In common with, and sometimes going beyond the IEA scenarios, the 2°C scenarios in Box A2are: publicly available, peer reviewed, and generally used/referenced,
 supported by publicly available data sets providing data at global, regional, and national
level, and in some cases, linked to functional tools (e.g., visualizers, calculators, and/or mapping
tools) that can be employed by organizations.
c. Nationally Determined Contributions and the Importance of 2°C Scenarios
When considering resilience to transition risks, an organization’s management, shareholders,and analysts should take into account, as a starting point, the stated measures and outcomesof governments’ NDC plans. In some instances, NDCs are built on domestic policy
considerations around what constitutes a practical, sound pathway to a low-carbon economy
in light of energy security requirements.
While taking into account NDC goals in scenario analysis is a substantive first step, thefollowing should be noted:

 The current NDCs are not sufficient to deliver the objective, stated in Article 2 of theParis Agreement and agreed to by 195 signatory countries, of “holding the increase in
the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to
pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.” 28

A
Introduction

41F

 The current NDCs end at 2030 (some earlier than 2030) and only achieve an expected
2.7°C warming limit.

B
Scenario Analysis

 Article 4 of the Paris Agreement introduces the ”ratcheting” requirement for countries

C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendicesto communicate enhanced NDCs every five years (i.e., to go further than they havecurrently committed to in order to achieve the Agreement’s objectives of below 2°C
above pre-industrial levels).
It is important, therefore, that organizations take into account a 2°C scenario in their analyses.
A 2°C scenario provides a common reference point that is generally aligned with the objectivesof the Paris Agreement and will support the evaluation, by analysts and investors, of thepotential magnitude and timing of transition-related implications for individual organizations,
across different organizations within a sector, and across different sectors.
In this context, it is useful to highlight several points from the Grantham Institute submission
to the Task Force: 29
42F…it is becoming increasingly risky for companies to pin all business strategies on theassumption that extensive decarbonization will not happen, for example, on the basis
because of (mostly backward-looking) lack of political will.
It is likely that all businesses will need to have an answer to the key question "what strategy
is in place to transition business models to ones that remain valuable once ambitious
climate policies are in place?" Similar questions relating to exposure to physical risks andfuture-proofing business models will have to be formulated, these varying according todifferent sectors’ exposure.

28
29

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, ”The Paris Agreement,” December 2015.
Dimitri Zenghelis and Nicholas Stern, The importance of looking forward to manage risks: submission to the Task Force on Climate-Related
Financial Disclosures, Policy Paper, June 2016.

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

19

Resilience requires the presence of forward risk management and hedging strategies. In
addition to answering the question “what is your most likely scenario?” investors will seek
to ask "what will you do in alternative scenarios such as a net zero emissions world?” Theanswer to this puts market players in a better position to assess market capitalization.
d. Comparison of Relevant Parameters and Signposts
A comparison of the IEA and other scenarios, their related models and tools, and theirunderlying assumptions is presented in Figure A4 (p. 21). It should be noted that this figure
does not include the IEA WEO Current Policies and New Policies scenarios since these do not
explicitly model the transition to a lower-carbon economy. Instead, they model alternative
versions of “business-as-usual.”
Analyzing the range of 2°C and other transition scenarios from the IEA, DDPP, IRENA, andGreenpeace, a number of key drivers or signposts appear relevant for organizations to
consider when constructing, using, and assessing various scenarios (Figure A5, p. 22). These
drivers and signposts can also serve as key indicators that organizations may wish to monitor
in order to gauge the emergence or change of different transition pathways and theimplications for their organization relative to these indicators. For instance, information fromsuch monitoring is likely to be an important input into an organization’s strategic planning
process as well as contributing to the ongoing adjustment of scenarios to reflect emerging
trends and conditions.

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
AppendicesTechnical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

20Figure A4

Summary of Transition Scenarios and their Underlying Assumptions
Scenario Description
Scenario

Temp Impact Range and %Likelihood

Source and Data Visualization

Model Details
Model

Underlying Assumption:
Population

Underlying Assumption:
Economics

Details: Non-Energy
emissions sources 30
43F

Details:
Timeframe

IEA WEO 450
Scenario

2°C, with a likelihood ofaround 50%

IEA Special Report: Energy andClimate Change
and
WEO 2014

IEA World
EnergyModel(WEM)

World population to grow by
0.9% per year, from 7 billion in
mid-2012 to 9 billion in 2040
(WEO 2014, pp. 42-44)

World GDP assumed to growat a rate of 3.4% over 20122040 (WEO 2014, pp. 39-42)

No (p. 35)

2012-2040

ETP 2DS
Scenario

2°C, with a likelihood ofaround 50% (p. 29)

ETP (Energy Technology
Perspectives) 2016

ETP Model

Population to grow from 7.1
billion in 2013, to 9.4 billion in
2050 (p. 385)

Average World GDP growthfor 2013-2050 is 3.2% (p. 385)

Yes (p. 29)

2013-2050

Deep
Decarbonizati
on Pathways
Project (DDPP)

Consistent with… warming toless than 2°C with a "better
than even" chance

DDPP 2015 Report

Expanded population growthof 17% from 2010-2050 acrossthe 16 countries (p. 6)

Global average GDP growthrate of 3.1% per year (pp. 45)"Some of the individual
country analyses
consider sources ofcarbon emissions otherthan energy" (p. 4)

2010-2050

IRENA REmap

2°C, if the lower end of CO2
emissions reductions areachieved (p. 42)

IRENA: Roadmap for a Renewable
Energy Future (Remap): 2016
edition & IRENA Working Paper:
Synergies between Renewable
Energy and Energy Efficiency

Population growth between
2010-2030 for 8 significant
countries is in table 3 of the
IRENA 'Synergies' paper

GDP change between 20102030 for 8 significant
countries is in Table 3 of the
IRENA 'Synergies' paper"The energy use of
agriculture, forestry, andfishing, as well as nonenergy use is excluded"
p. 27, 2016 REmap Paper

2010-2030

Greenpeace
Advanced
Energy[R]evolution

Aim to hold temperature
increase to under 2°C (p. 59)

Greenpeace Energy [R]evolution(5th Ed)

Population expected to growby 0.8% per year on averageover the period of 2015-2050
from 7.3 Bn in 2009 to nearly
9.5 Bn in 2050

Average annual GDP growthrate of 3.1% between 20122050

Yes - Final energy
demand includes nonenergy use (p. 317)

2012-2050

IEA WEO
BridgeScenario

Aim to "keep the door to the
2°C goal open" through theenergy transition. Note: thisis NOT a 2°C scenario in
itself.

IEA Special Report: Energy andClimate Change

IEA World
EnergyModel(WEM)

Population expected to growby 0.9% per year, from anestimated 7 Bn in mid-2012 to
9 Bn in 2040 (WEO 2014, pp.
42-44)

World GDP assumed to growat a rate of 3.4% over 20122040 (WEO 2014, pp. 39-42)

No (p. 35)

2012-2030

IEA WEO INDC
Scenario

By 2040, all remaining
carbon budget for a 50%
change of 2°C will be used. If
no stronger action after
2030, warming of 2.6°C by
2100, and 3.5°C after 2200
(p. 12)IEA Special Report: Energy andClimate Change and Data/Tables

IEA World
EnergyModel(WEM)

Population expected to growby 0.9% per year, from anestimated 7 Bn in mid-2012 to
9 Bn in 2040 (WEO 2014, pp.
42-44)

World GDP assumed to growat a rate of 3.4% over 20122040 (WEO 2014, pp. 39-42)

No (p. 35)

2012-2030

30

Note: One key non-energy source of emissions is the contribution to GHG emissions expected from land-use, land-use change and forestry, which, for some countries, can be very significant (IEA, “Energy andClimate Change: Special Briefing for COP21.” 2015).

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21

Figure A5

Comparison of Relevant Parameters and Signposts within Transition Scenarios

CO2 Price

ETP 2DS
scenario

Deep Decarbonization Pathways
Project (DDPP)

IRENA REmap- Strong efficiency related policy
action- Around 5100 GW of new capacity
is avoided between 2016 and2050.
- A decrease in energy intensity isof almost two thirds is assumed
from 2013 to 2050. (p. 31)- Average energy intensity of GDP
for the 16 DDPP countries as awhole falls 64% from ~8.2 MJ/$
in2010 to 3 MJ/$ in 2050. (p. 9)- Average Carbon Intensity ofelectricity falls from~530
gCO2/kWh in 2010, to~40gCO2/kWh in 2050. (p. 9)- Building sector has the greatest
energy savings. (p. 22, Synergies
paper)- Efficiency gains from thedeployment of REmap would keep
the global Total Primary Energy
Supply 5% below 2010 level. (p.
27, Synergies paper)- Efficiency measures in theindustry, residential and service
sectors avoid the generation of
about 16,700 TWh/a (by 2050](p. 13)- After 2020, a CO2 price isadopted in OECD countries.
- Fossil fuel subsidies removed in
all regions except the Middle Eastby 2035. CO2 prices in most OECDmarkets reach $140/ton in 2040,
up from ~$20/ton in 2020 (p. 45,
WEO 2014)

Assumptions are that in the US
Carbon taxes begin in2020 at$35/tCO2, and increase linearly
to$210/tCO2 by 2050.
- Where the current level oftaxation is greater than this, taxes
are maintained until this schedule
catches up with them.

- Note: "The choice of policy
instruments depends on societal
preferences;" therefore in the
DDPPs, the importance of carbon
pricing does vary, although it is ofimportance in all. (pp.39-41)- A range of USD 17-80/t CO2 isassumed for carbon prices (p. 2627, 2016 REmap paper)- In contrast to the 2012 edition,
the 2015 Energy [R]evolution
analysis, CO2 pricing is set aside.
(p. 67)- Global energy demand grows on
average by only 0.6% per year; in2040 demand is up 17% on 2012.

- Final energy demand to grow to455EJ by 2050, up from 390 EJ in
2014. (p.32)- Medium emissions/moderate
income countries: Energy
consumption peaks 2030-40.
Fossil fuel consumption in 2050 =2010 levels. (p.15)- High emissions/ high-income
countries: Final energy demand
falls 10% below 2010 levels by
2050.(p. 17)- Global energy demand grows
30% in 2030 compared to levels
today. (p. 14, Remap 2016 Paper)- Primary energy consumption
433,000 PJ/a in 2050 (excluding
non- energy consumption), downfrom 534,870 PJ/a today. (p.92)- Peak final energy demandreached in 2020 with a total of
355,000 PJ/a. (pp.12-13)- In 2050, urban rooftop solar PV
is assumed to account for around
47% of global electricity generated
by solar PV, and 9% of theelectricity consumed in cities. (p.
284)- Cumulative production of
decarbonized energy(GW) from
Solar PV, in all DDPP countries,
grows as follows: 2010: 1GW,
2020: 275GW, 2030:823GW, 2040:
1752GW, 2050: 3254GW (p. 29)- Solar PV power generation
capacity is 1760 GW by 2030, up
from 180GW in 2014 and 780 GW
in the reference case (p. 67, 2016
REmap paper)- Solar PV power capacity
increases at a rate of 99 GW/year
in 2012-2030.

- Solar PV provides 14% of total
electricity generation by 2030,
employing 10.3 million people.
- Total generation rises from 1,090
TWh in 2020, to 2,659 TWh in
2025, and 5,067 TWh in 2030. (p.
202)- 100 million EVs by 2030, up from
1 Million in 2016. (p. 253)
- Annual sales growth of EVs
assumed to be sustained, from
53% in 2014, to 66% through 2020
and to 39% through 2025. (p. 104)

- Production of EVs (per million):
2010: 0, 2020:32, 2030:134,
2040:333, 2050: 650 (p. 29)- The number of electric vehicles
reaches 160 million units in 2030
under the Remap scenario, up
from 60 million in the referencecase and 0.8 million in 2013/2014.
(p. 102, 2016 REmap paper)

Solar PV Deployment
EV Deployment

Emerging Technologies

Energy Demand

Key Drivers / Signposts

Policy & Demand

Energy efficiency

Scenario
IEA WEO 450
scenario- Sale of EVs exceed 40% of total
passenger car sales worldwide in
2040. (p. 109, WEO Special Report)- Advanced biofuels and EVs
reduce oil consumption by 13.8
mboe per day in 2040 (p. 123,
WEO Special Report)

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

Greenpeace Advanced Energy[R]evolution

22

Figure A5

Comparison of Relevant Parameters and Signposts within Transition Scenarios (continued)

Bio-energy% Renewables
Nuclear

Energy Mix
CO2 Emissions

Outcomes

Key Drivers / Signposts

Emerging Technologies

CCS Deployment

Scenario
IEA WEO 450
scenario

ETP 2DS
scenario

Deep Decarbonization
Pathways Project (DDPP)- 80 GW of CCS equipped Oil& Gas capacity to be operating by
2025. Between 2030 and 2040,
580 GW of coal-fired power
generation equipped with CCS.
- By 2040, 80% of coal-fired
generation capacity has CCS
equipped, compared with 4% in
the new policies Scenario.

- Assumed 540 MtCO2 being
stored per year in 2025. (p.96)- CCS assumed to provide12% of
cumulative emissions reductions,capturing around 3.5 Gt CO2
worldwide in 2050. (p. 39)- Assumed growth in CCS
deployment from ~3GW in2020 to~20 GW in 2030, rising to ~56 GW
in 2040, and 76.7 GW in 2050.
(p.37)(Credits CCS as important, but no
discussion of specific impact inscenario)- 'CCS Technologies are not
implemented.' (p.60)- CCS technologies are notincluded in the Energy Revolution,
due to the speculative nature ofassumptions around costs,
effectiveness and environmental
effects (p.67)- The fuel mix is much morediversified by 2040, biofuelsconsisting of 17% of worldtransport demand (p.124, WEO
Special Report)- Assumed production of 56.8
billion liters of biofuels by 2025.
(p. 108)- Cumulative production of
decarbonized energy (GW) from
Biomass, in all DDPP countries,
grows as follows:2010: 1 GW,
2020: 26 GW,2030: 105 GW, 2040:
221GW, 2050: 270 GW- Demand for liquid biofuelsreaches 500 billion liters per year
in 2030 if all REmap options are
implemented. (p. 108, 2016
Remap paper)- Bioenergy power generation
capacity is 430 GW by 2030. (p. 67,
2016 REmap paper)- Heat supplied by Biomass
increases from 31,404 PJ in 2020,
to 34,909 PJ in 2025, and 36,623 PJ
in 2030. (p. 203)

- Variable renewables increase
from increase from 3% of global
electricity generation in 2015 tomore than 20% by 2040. (p. 109,WEO Special Report)- CO2 intensity of electricity fallingfrom 528 g CO2/kWh in 2013 toless than40g CO2 /kWh in
2050.Achieved throughdeployment of low-carbon
generation.

- Annual investment in low carbon
technology as a share of GDP (%)
expected to grow across the DDPP
countries: 0.8% in 2020, 1.2% in
2030, 1.3% in2040, 1.3% in 2050.
(p.32)- 45% of Power generation in the
REmap scenario in 2030 uses
renewable technology (up from
23% in 2014), compared to 30% in
the Reference case. (p. 54, 2016
REmap paper)- 45% of Power generation in the
REmap scenario in 2030 uses
renewable technology (up from
23% in 2014), compared to 30% in
the Reference case. (p. 54, 2016
REmap paper)- Global nuclear capacity morethan doubles to 862 Gw in 2040,
38% higher than in the New
Policies Scenario. (p. 406)
- Development depends on some$81 billion/year in investment in
new nuclear plants over 20142040. (p. 406)

- Assumed growth in global
nuclear capacity from403GW in
2016 to 553 GW by 2025. (p. 90)- Cumulative production of
decarbonized energy (GW)from
Nuclear technology, in all DDPP
countries, grows as follows: 2010:
2GW,2020: 53GW, 2030:259GW,
2040: 632GW,2050: 1053GW (p.
29)- Under the REmap scenario,
Nuclear power generation
capacity is 600GW by 2030, up
from 370GW in 2014, but lessthan the Reference Case in 2030,
at 650GW. (p. 67, 2016 REmap
paper)- No new nuclear power plants
will be built worldwide in the
Energy [R]evolution Scenarios. (p.
122)- Energy-related CO2 emissions
peak at 33Gt before 2020, thenfall back to 25.4 Gt in 2030 and19.3 Gt in 2040 (almost 50% lower
than New Policies Scenario).

- CO2 emissions in the 2DSare
reduced to 15 Gt in 2050, lessthan half the current value. (p. 28)- Range of cumulative energyrelated emissions of 805-847Gt
CO2 by 2050. (pp. 17-18)- The lower end of this (CO2
reduction) range is sufficient tokeep the world on a 2oC
pathway"(pp. 41-42, 2016 REmap
paper)- 100% Renewable energydecarbonization of the entire
energy system by 2050.
- Global CO2 emissions stabilize by
2020 and then constantly reduce.
- Total cumulative CO2 emissions
between 2012 & 2050 are 667 Gt
CO2. (p. 15)

IRENA REmap

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

Greenpeace Advanced Energy[R]evolution23

e. Outputs from Transition Scenarios
The transition scenarios summarized above provide data and graphical outputs that present
analysis and outcomes for key parameters at global and regional levels and frequently also atcertain national and sector levels.
In addition, many of the published transition scenarios are accompanied by functional tools
and dashboards that can help organizations access the information of greatest relevance tothem. For example, the DDPP tool (and also the Global Calculator developed by the U.K.
government 31) allows users to undertake ”what if” analysis by modifying certain input
parameters and assumptions. Further development of supporting tools and user interfaces,
however, is necessary to facilitate uptake of scenario analysis by organizations, reduce costs of
scenario analysis, and help ensure comparability by investors.
4F

2. Physical Scenarios
The science and the results of global climate models also can support organizations’assessments of the broader physical impacts of climate change (e.g., temperature,
precipitation, and drought) and the associated financial consequences. As an illustration ofthis, recent analysis by MIT of six Integrated Assessment Models (which model interactions
between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in climate systems and climate change
impacts on social-economic systems) found that climate outcomes such as global temperature
were highly comparable across the models. The MIT work and other experience suggests thatbusiness planners, financial analysts, and others can effectively use the outputs of global
climate models in scenario analysis to assess the broader consequences of physical climaterelated impacts.

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices

Downscaling these global climate models to local impacts, however, is still a work in progress.
Several governments and international financial institutions are now using “downscaled” datafrom global climate models to assess new infrastructure projects. However, many global
climate models still have difficulties in projecting accurately extreme weather events at local
levels (e.g., floods, precipitation patterns, and droughts).
a. Publicly Available Physical Scenarios
The IPCC’s four RCPs are the latest generation of scenarios that provide input to the climate
models underpinning the IPCC’s AR5. These scenarios describe the climate impacts of a rangeof possible future GHG emissions and consequent trajectories of atmospheric GHG
concentrations (Box A3, p. 25).
The RCP scenarios fix the amount of GHG concentration in the atmosphere and analyze theresulting changes in global temperatures (and other variables such as precipitation) at various
future points (i.e., out to 2035, mid-century [2046-65], and end of century [2081-2100]) relative
to pre-industrial levels.
Figure A6 (p. 25) illustrates the range of emission pathways and temperature outcomesmodeled as inputs to the IPCC’s AR5 and the resulting atmospheric CO2 concentrations andglobal average temperature change.

31

U.K. Government's International Climate Fund, EU's Climate-KIC, “The Global Calculator tool,” The Global Calculator.

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

24Box A3

IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) Scenarios
RCP8.5 is the high-emissions scenario, consistent with a future with no policy changes to reduce emissions, andcharacterized by increasing GHG emissions that lead to high atmospheric GHG concentrations. It is aligned
broadly with a Current Policies or Business-As-Usual Scenario.
RCP6.0 is a high-to-intermediate emissions scenario where GHG emissions peak at around 2060 and then decline
through the rest of the century.
RCP4.5 is an intermediate-emissions scenario, consistent with a future with relatively ambitious emissions
reductions and GHG emissions increasing slightly before starting to decline circa 2040. Despite such relatively
ambitious emissions reduction actions, RCP4.5 falls short of the 2°C limit/1.5°C aim agreed on in the Paris
Agreement. It is aligned broadly with the GHG emissions profile that would result from implementation of the2015 NDCs (out to 2030), followed rapidly by peaking and then reduction of global emissions by 50% by 2080.
RCP2.6 is the only IPCC scenario in line with the Paris Agreement’s stated 2°C limit/1.5°C aim. This RCP is
consistent with ambitious reduction of GHG emissions, which would peak around 2020, then decline on a linear
path and become net negative before 2100.

Figure A6

CO2 Emissions Pathways and Temperature Outcomes in IPCC AR5 RCP
Scenarios

Source: Sabine Fuss, et al., “Betting on negative emissions,” Nature Climate Change 4 (10), September 2014, pp. 850–853.

Technical Supplement | The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities

25

The data and outcomes of this modeling are available in CMIP5, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. 32 A summary of CMIP5 is provided in Box A4. This data is publicly
available and is used by many organizations, academic researchers, and specialist consultants
and practitioners in their evaluations of the potential first-, second- and third-order impacts ofclimate change.
45F

b. Comparison of Relevant Signposts
The physical scenarios or RCPs from IPCC’s AR5 reflect a range of GHG emissions andconcentration pathways and consequent temperature outcomes. Modeling results, such as
those contained in the CMIP5 archive, provide projected climate data for the range ofvariables for each of the RCPs.
Box A4

CMIP5 Summary
CMIP5 promotes a standard set of model simulations in order to evaluate how realistic the models arein simulating the recent past; provide projections of future climate change on two time scales, near term(out to about 2035) and long term (out to 2100 and beyond); and understand some of the factors
responsible for differences in model projections, including quantifying some key feedbacks such as
those involving clouds and the carbon cycle. 33
46F

The multi-model-mean results from the CMIP5 data sets can be used to conduct physical climate change
impact assessments. Using these data, organizations can screen the outcomes for the following
variables in 2030, 2050 and beyond: 34

A
Introduction

47F



temperature• wildfires• water supply and demand

B
Scenario Analysis



precipitation• hurricanes/cyclones• sea level risedrought• typhoons• landslides

C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis

storm surges• floods

For organizations wishing to understand their stressed exposure to plausible physical climate change

Appendicesscenarios consistent with RCP8.5 (which most closely reflects a business-as-usual pathway consistentrisks in the time frame from now until mid-century, what is likely to be most helpful is to consider
with failure to properly implement NDCs).

Indicative outputs from the modeling of these two RCP scenarios are shown in Figure A7 (p. 27).
These show some of the global mapping resources available to organizations, both from IPCC
itself and from other organizations that have used IPCC modeling data to develop user-friendly
mapping tools. When undertaking physical climate-related scenario analysis, organizations may
find it useful to derive high-level data from such maps and to supplement this with site-, local- or
region-specific data from the CMIP5 data set, and the results of relevant studies drawn from themany academic research papers that have informed the work of the IPCC. These will include
research papers specific to individual regions or countries; to individual climate impacts/variables,
including on the severity and frequency of extreme weather events; and to the impacts on specificindustries (e.g., the impact on agricultural production within a specific country).

CMIP was established by leading climate-modeling groups around the world in 1995 to promote a new set of coordinated climate modelexperiments. CMIP Phase 5 provided key results and access to data from 28 modeling centers that underpinned the IPCC 5th Assessment
Report, generating projections of future climate change under each of the RCPs (World Climate Research Programme, CMIP5, 2016).
33
Ibid.
34
Some variables, such as wildfires, also rely upon use of separate data sets outside CMIP5.
32

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26

Figure A7

Comparison of Relevant Signposts within Physical Climate Scenarios

Source: IPCC, Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 [van Oldenborgh, G.J., M. Collins, J. Arblaster, J.H. Christensen, J.
Marotzke, S.B. Power, M. Rummukainen and T. Zhou (eds.)]. 2013. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)].

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c. Types of Physical Risk Assessment Tools & Resources
In addition to the modeling results from applying the IPCC RCP scenarios shown above, drawn
from the CMIP5 data set, a number of other tools are available to organizations to support
their assessments of physical climate impacts and risks at global, regional, national, and local
levels.
The WRI Aqueduct Atlas (Figure A8) is a risk-mapping tool that “helps companies, investors,
governments, and other users understand where and how water risks and opportunities are
emerging worldwide. The Atlas uses a robust, peer-reviewed methodology and the bestavailable data to create high-resolution, customizable global maps of water risk.”
Figure A8

WRI Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas

AIntroduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices

Source: World Resources Institute (WRI), Aqueduct: Measuring and Mapping Water Risk, 2016.

In addition to the WRI Aqueduct tool, other tools include the following: The WBCSD Water Tool 35 is a multifunctional resource for identifying corporate water
48F

risks and opportunities, including a workbook (for site inventories, key reporting
indicators, and metrics), a mapping functionality, and Google Earth compatibility. The
tool is intended to support organizations operating in multiple countries, whether they
are new to water management or as part of a long-term resilience strategy.
Organizations can compare sites based on water availability, sanitation, population,and biodiversity.

 The UN Food and Agriculture Organization GAEZ Agri tool data portal is based on the
Global Agro-Ecological Zones (GAEZ) methodology for assessing agricultural resources
and potential. 36 The data portal is a collection of databases and study results, including
the option for visualization. The tool was updated in 2014 to take account of the RCPs,
49F

35
36

WBCSD, “Global Water Tool,” 2015.
UN Food and Agriculture Organization, “Global Agro-Ecological Zones,” 2017.

Technical Supplement |The Use of Scenario Analysis in Disclosure of Climate-Related Risks and Opportunities28

developed for the IPCC’s AR5, that enable users to forecast changes in yields,
production, and other outputs due to climate change.
An increasing number of national governments and national meteorological offices aremaking projections of climate change at a local/national level and are conducting assessments
and preparing toolkits that can form reference points and provide resources for use byorganizations. Examples include: The U.K. Climate Impacts Programme (U.K. CIP) has gathered historical climate records
and future climate projections. Climate projections cover low-, medium- and highemissions scenarios and can be viewed through an online user interface and associatedbriefing report. The UKCP09 Weather Generator provides projections of future daily
climate using 5km data baseline from 1961-1995, producing projections for specificfuture time periods.

 The U.S. Interagency Archive of Downscaled Climate Data and Information provides anarchive of simulated historical and future climatology and hydrology; it is maintained atLawrence Livermore National Lab by a consortium of federal and non-federal partners.
Information available from this archive is free and open to all.

 In France, climate research is led by the program Management and Impacts of Climate
Change (GICC). Meteo-France is the primary provider of climate projections out to 2100,
covering temperature, precipitation, and wind speeds, aligned with the IPCC’s RCPs.
Projections are provided for the medium term (2021-2050) and long term (2071-2100).
Using regionalized models, it has been possible to achieve a resolution of around
12km.

A
Introduction

 Similar resources are available in other countries including, but not limited to, Australia,

B
Scenario Analysis

Canada, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, and South Africa.

C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
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Appendix 2: Glossary
Adaptation: Anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action
to prevent or minimize the damage they can cause or taking advantage of opportunities that
may arise. 37
20F

Business-As-Usual (BAU): Business-as-usual projections are based on the assumption that
operating practices and policies remain as they are at present. Although baseline scenarios
could incorporate some specific features of BAU scenarios (e.g., a ban on a specifictechnology), BAU scenarios imply that no practices or policies other than the current ones arein place. 38
21F

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS): A technology that can capture carbon dioxide (CO2)emissions produced from the use of fossil fuels in electricity generation and industrial
processes and store the CO2 deep underground, preventing the CO2 from entering theatmosphere. 39
2F

Emissions Scenario: A plausible future pathway of man-made emissions (e.g. greenhousegases and other pollutants,) that can affect climate. These pathways are based on a coherent
and internally consistent set of assumptions about determining factors (such as demographic
and socioeconomic development, technological change) and their key relationships.
Energy Transition: A shift from a system currently dominated by mainly fossil-fuel basedenergy toward a system using a majority of low-emissions and renewable energy sources, andmaximizing opportunities for increased energy efficiency and better management of energy
demand.

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices

Fifth Assessment Report (AR5): Report published by the IPCC in 2014 that provides an
update of knowledge on the scientific, technical and socio-economic impacts of climatechange.
General Circulation Models (GCM): Numerical models representing physical processes in theatmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land surface.
Greenhouse Gas (GHG): Gases that have the ability to trap heat when emitted within theatmosphere. The greenhouse gases included under the GHG protocol are: carbon dioxide(CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons(PCFs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3).
Integrated Assessment Models (IAM): These models attempt to integrate knowledge fromtwo or more domains of expertise or academic disciplines. They are constructed to address
climate change by tracking emissions, the concentration of greenhouse gases in theatmosphere as well as other carbon sinks, temperature and other climate impacts arisingfrom increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and damages
resulting from those climate impacts. Emissions follow from economic behavior, and policies
scenarios can be hypothesized to affect emissions along a number of dimensions.
Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC): INDCs outline national efforts
towards low emissions and climate resilient development in pursuit of the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change’s objective and represent one of the main

European Commission Climate Action, Adaptation to Climate Change. 2016.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. 2014. In: Climate
Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
39
Carbon Capture and Storage Association, “What is CCS?” 2016.
37
38

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deliverables of the Paris Agreement. Following ratification of the Paris Agreement, INDCs are
now known as NDCs; see Paris Agreement. 40
23F

International Energy Agency (IEA): An autonomous organization that works to ensure
reliable, affordable, and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond. The IEA has
four main areas of focus: energy security, economic development, environmental awareness,and engagement.
IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. An international forum of experts
established in 1988 and used by the United Nations to undertake periodic assessments that
address how climate will change, what its impacts may be, and how we can respond. 41
24F

Land Use/Land Use Change/Forestry (LULUCF): A greenhouse gas inventory sector thatcovers emissions and removals of greenhouse gases resulting from direct human-induced
land use, land-use change, and forestry activities. 42
25F

Mitigation: Refers to efforts to reduce or prevent emission of greenhouse gases. Mitigation
can mean using new technologies and renewable energies, making older equipment moreenergy efficient, or changing management practices or consumer behavior.
Organizations: The use in this report of the term “organizations” refers to both financial andnon-financial organizations.
Paris Agreement: In 2015, Parties to the UNFCCC agreed in Paris to keep the global
temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts
to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C. The agreement requires all Parties to
put forward “Nationally Determined Contributions” (NDCs). There will also be a global
stocktaking every five years to assess the collective progress towards achieving the agreement
and to inform about further individual actions by Parties. 43

A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis

26F

C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
Appendices

Physical Risks: Risks associated with physical impacts from climate change that could affectcarbon assets and operating companies. These impacts may include “acute” physical damage
from variations in weather patterns (such as severe storms, floods, and drought) and “chronic”
impacts such as sea level rise, and desertification.
Pre-industrial Levels: Pre-industrial average temperature using an 1850-1900 reference
period.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): Four independent pathways comprisingsets of projections of radiative forcing that serve as inputs to climate modeling, pattern scaling
and atmospheric chemistry modeling. These are based on the forcing of greenhouse gases
and other forcing agents.
Scenario: A plausible description of how the future may develop based on a coherent andinternally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces (e.g., rate of technologicalchange, prices) and relationships. Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts,
but are useful for providing a view of the implications of developments and actions. 44
27F

UNFCCC, Synthesis Report on the Aggregate Effect of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs), 2013.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate
Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
42
Ibid.
43
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, “The Paris Agreement.” 2016.
44
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014: Annex II: Glossary [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate
Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130.
40
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31Single Simplified Climate Model: Referred to as ‘Simple Climate Models’ in the IPCC Second
Assessment Report and used to provide projections of global mean temperature and sea levelchange in response to the IS92 emissions scenarios and carbon dioxide stabilization profiles.
Transition Risks: Risks related to the transition to a lower-carbon economy. The risks can begrouped into four categories: policy and legal risk; technological risk; market risk (e.g.,
consumer preferences); and reputational risk.
Value Chain: Terminology used to describe the upstream and downstream life cycle of a
product, process, or service, including material sourcing, production, consumption, anddisposal/recycling. Upstream activities include operations that relate to the initial stages of
producing a good or service, e.g., material sourcing, material processing, supplier activities.
Downstream activities include operations that relate to processing the materials into afinished product and delivering it to the end user (e.g., transportation, distribution andconsumption).

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Appendix 3: References
BHP Billiton. Climate Change: Portfolio Analysis. 2015. www.bhp.com//media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/2015/bhpbillitonclimatechangeporfolioanalysis2015.pdf?la=en.
BHP Billiton. Views After Paris. 2016. www.bhp.com//media/bhp/documents/investors/reports/2016/bhpbillitonclimatechangeporfolioanalysis2016.pdf?la=en.
Carbon Capture and Storage Association. “What is CCS?” 2016. www.ccsassociation.org/what-is-ccs/.
CDP. “Climate Change Questionnaire.” 2017. https://www.cdp.net/en/guidance/guidance-for-companies.
ConocoPhillips. “Scenarios in the capital allocation process.” Climate Change Strategy. 2017.
www.conocophillips.com/sustainable-development/environment/climate-change/climate-changestrategy/Pages/default.aspx.
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). “About,” DDPP. 2016. deepdecarbonization.org/about/.
European Commission Climate Action. Adaptation to Climate Change. 2016.
ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/adaptation_en.
Fuss, Sabine, et al. “Betting on negative emissions,” Nature Climate Change 4 (10), September 2014, pp. 850–853.
/www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n10/full/nclimate2392.html.
Glencore. Climate change considerations for our business. 2016.
www.glencore.com/assets/sustainability/doc/sd_reports/GLEN-Climate-change-considerations-for-our-business20160613.pdf.
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC). Impact of Environmental Factors on Credit Risk of Commercial Banks.
A
Introduction

March 2016. www.greenfinance.org.cn/upfile/upfile/filet/ICBC 环境压力测试论文_2016-03-19_08-49-24.pdf.
International Energy Agency (IEA). World Energy Model Documentation 2015 Version. 2015.
www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/WEM_Documentation_WEO2015.pdf.

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C
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Appendices

IEA. Energy and Climate Change. 2015.
www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WEO2015SpecialReportonEnergyandClimateChange.pdf.
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). “Remap – IRENA’s Roadmap for a Renewable Energy Future.” IRENA.
2016. irena.org/remap/.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
Supplementary Material RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 [van Oldenborgh, G.J., M. Collins, J. Arblaster, J.H. Christensen, J.
Marotzke, S.B. Power, M. Rummukainen and T. Zhou (eds.)]. 2013. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science
Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex
and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. http://www.climatechange2013.org/.
IPCC. Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), Climate Change: Action, Trends, and Implications for Business, Cambridge
University Press, 2013. www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/business-action/low-carbon-transformation/ipcc-climate-sciencebusiness-briefings/climate-science.
IPCC. “Towards new Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies,”
September, 2007. IPCC Expert Meeting Report. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/supporting-material/expert-meeting-tsscenarios.pdf.
Maack, J. Scenario Analysis: A Tool for Task Managers. Social Analysis: selected tools and techniques, Social
Development Papers, Number 36, the World Bank, June 2001, Washington, DC.
siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPSIA/Resources/ 490023-1121114603600/13053_scenarioanalysis.pdf.
Paltsev, Sergey. “Energy Scenarios: The Value and Limits of Scenario Analysis,” MIT CEEPR WP 2016-007, 2016.
Rounsevell, Mark D. A. and Metzger, Marc J. Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change
assessment. WIREs Climate Change 2010, 1: 606-619. doi: 10.1002/wcc.63, 2010.
wires.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WiresArticle/wisId-WCC63.html.
Schoemaker, Paul J.H. "Integrating scenarios into strategic planning at Royal Dutch/Shell." Planning Review, Vol. 20
Issue: 3, pp.41-46. 1992. https://doi.org/10.1108/eb054360.
Statoil. Energy Perspectives 2016: Long Term Macro and Market Outlook. June 2016.
www.statoil.com/content/dam/statoil/documents/energy-perspectives/energy-perspectives-2016.pdf.

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U.K. Government's International Climate Fund, EU's Climate-KIC, “The Global Calculator tool,” The Global Calculator.
www.globalcalculator.org/.
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. “Global Agro-Ecological Zones.” 2017. www.fao.org/nr/gaez/en/.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. ”The Paris Agreement,” December 2015.
unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf.
United Nations Environmental Programme. Best Practices and Case Studies for Industrial Energy Efficiency
Improvement. February 2016.
www.unepdtu.org/-/media/Sites/energyefficiencycentre/Publications/C2E2%20Publications/Best-Practises-forIndustrial-EE_web.ashx?la=da.
Wilby, R.G., et al. “Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Statistical Downscaling Methods.”
Supporting Material of the IPCC, Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for Impacts and Climate Analysis(TGICA). August, 2004. www.wcrp-climate.org/wgcm/references/IPCC_TGICA_guidelines_sdscenarios_2004.pdf.
World Business Council for Sustainable Development. “Global Water Tool.” 2015. http://www.wbcsd.org/workprogram/sector-projects/water/global-water-tool.aspx.
World Climate Research Programme. “CMIP5.” 2016. cmip-pcmdi.llnl.gov/cmip5/.
World Resources Institute (WRI). “Aqueduct: Measuring and Mapping Water Risk.” 2016. www.wri.org/ourwork/project/aqueduct.
Zenghelis, Dimitri and Stern, Nicholas. The importance of looking forward to manage risks: submission to the Task Forceon Climate-Related Financial Disclosures. Policy Paper, June 2016. www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/wpcontent/uploads/2016/06/Zenghelis-and-Stern-policy-paper-June-2016.pdf.

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Appendix 4: Further Reading
1. Global Climate Models and Scenarios
Dowlatabadi, H. Integrated assessment models of climate change: an incomplete overview. Energy Policy, 23: 289-296.
1995.
Ercin, A. Ertug and Arjen Y. Hoekstra. Carbon and Water Footprints: Concepts, Methodologies and Policy Responses. UN
World Water Assessment Program. 2012. waterfootprint.org/media/downloads/Ercin-Hoekstra-2012-Carbonand-Water-Footprints_1.PDF.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). IPCC Special Report: Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press. 2000.
www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp=0.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007). Towards new Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate
Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies: IPCC Expert Meeting Report. September 2007.
www.aimes.ucar.edu/docs/IPCC.meetingreport.final.pdf.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “Annex II: Glossary.” Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report.
Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 117-130. 2014.
http://ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_Glossary.pdf.
National Center for Atmospheric Research. “International Committee on New Integrated Climate Change
Assessment Scenarios (ICONICS).” Climate & Global Dynamics. www2.cgd.ucar.edu/research/iconics.
Riemann-Campe, Kathrin. Climate Scenarios: An Introduction. Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven Germany.
2016. www.access-eu.org/contributor/resources/download/access/fichiers_pdf/
WP1_WS_RiemannCampe_Scenarios.pdf.

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Introduction
B
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C
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Appendices

The Royal Society (2013). Modeling Earth’s future: Integrated assessments of linked human- natural systems. Science
Policy Centre report. October 2013.
royalsociety.org/topics-policy/publications/2013/modeling-earths-future/.
Van Vuuren, Detlef P. et al. “The representative concentration pathways: an overview.” Climatic Change 109: 5–31,
DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z. 2011.
Wayne, G.P. “The beginner’s guide to representative concentration pathways.” Skeptical Science. 2013.
skepticalscience.com/rcp.php.

2. Scenario Analysis - How To
2° Investing Initiative (2°ii). Transition Risk Toolbox: Scenarios, Data, and Models. November 2016.
2degrees-investing.org/IMG/pdf/2ii_et_toolbox_v0.pdf.
Berkhout, Frans, et. al. Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as ‘learning
machines.’ Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. 2001.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378002000067.
Ceres. A Framework for 2 Degrees Scenario Analysis: A Guide for Oil and Gas Companies and Investors for Navigating theEnergy Transition. January 2017. http://www.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/file/Framework.pdf.
Godet, Michel. “The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls.” Technological Forecasting and Social
Change, 65: 3–22. Elsevier Science Inc. New York, NY. 2000.
en.laprospective.fr/dyn/anglais/articles/art_of_scenarios.pdf.
Hallegatte, Stephanie. “Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change.” Global Environmental Change, 19: 240–
247. 2009. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378008001192.
Kosow, Hannah and Gaβner, Robert. Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis: Overview, assessment, and selection
criteria. Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE Studies 39), Bonn Germany. 2008.
nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-193660.
Mearns, L.O., et. al. Guidelines for Use of Climate Scenarios Developed from Regional Climate Model Experiments.
IPCC. October 2003. www.ipcc-data.org/guidelines/dgm_no1_v1_10-2003.pdf.

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North American CRO Council. Scenario Analysis: Principles and Practices in the Insurance Industry. North American CRO
Council Incorporated. December 2013.
crocouncil.org/images/CRO_Council_-_Stress_and_Scenario_Testing_Paper_FINAL.pdf.
Paltsev, Sergey. “Energy Scenarios: The Value and Limits of Scenario Analysis.” MIT CEEPR 2016-007. MIT Center for
Energy and Environmenal Policy Research. April 2016. ceepr.mit.edu/files/papers/2016-007.pdf.
Santoso, Heru, et. al. Climate Scenarios: What we need to know and how to generate them. Center for International
Forestry Research, Working Paper Number 45. 2008.
www.cifor.org/publications/pdf_files/WPapers/WP45Santoso.pdf.
Schoemaker, Paul J.H. “When and How to Use Scenario Planning: A Heuristic Approach with Illustration.” Journal of
Forecasting 10: 549-564. November 1991. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3980100602/abstract.
Wulf, Torsten, et. al. A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning: Integrating Planning and Process Perspective ofStrategy. Leipzig Graduate School of Management, Center for Scenario Planning, Working Paper 1. July 2010.
www.hhl.de/fileadmin/texte/publikationen/arbeitspapiere/hhlap0098.pdf.

3. Scenario Analysis/Climate Modeling/Resiliency Planning – Tools and Data
California Energy Commission. “Climate Tools.” Cal-adapt. 2017. cal-adapt.org/tools/.
Climate and Development Knowldge Network (CDKN). “A guide to climate compatible development tools.” Climate
Planning. www.climateplanning.org/.
European Climate Adaptation Platform. “Observations and Scenarios.” Adaptation Information.
climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/knowledge/adaptation-information/observations-and-scenarios.
European Climate Information Portal. CLIPC: Constructing Europe's Climate Information Portal. www.clipc.eu/home.
(provides climate, indicator and scenario information)A
Introduction

European Environment Agency. European Environment Agency. www.eea.europa.eu/.
(provides information on land cover, water, air and other environmental data and indicators)

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Europe PROVIA / MEDIATION Adaptation Platform. “Scenario Analysis.” PROVIA / MEDIATION Toolbox.
www.mediation-project.eu/platform/tbox/scenario_analysis.html.
(provides climate change adaptation methods and tools)
Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. “Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate
Change – MOSAICC.” Climate Change. United Nations. www.fao.org/climatechange/mosaicc/66705/en/.
Global Carbon Project. The Global Carbon Project. 2017. www.globalcarbonproject.org/.
(provides information on the global carbon cycle, including its biophysical and human dimensions and theinteractions and feedbacks between them, as well as carbon and methane budgets and trends)
Government of Canada. “Downscaling Tools.” Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios.
climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=dst-intro.
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis. “Databases.” Models, Tools & Data.
www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/Energy/Databases.en.html.
(contains a wide variety of land, energy, transition, and water tools)
Mendelsohn, Robert, et. al. “Country-specific market impacts of climate change.” Climate Change, 45: 553-569. 2000.
www.researchgate.net/publication/227176953_Country-Specific_Market_Impacts_of_Climate_Change.
NASA. “Climate Effects on Food Supply.” Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). 2017.
sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/data/collection/crop-climate.
Natural Capital Project. “Our Software.” Scenario Support and Other Tools.
www.naturalcapitalproject.org/software/#scenario-generator.
Nature Conservancy. Climate Wizard. www.climatewizard.org/index.html.
National Center for Atmospheric Research. “Climate Change Scenarios GIS data portal.” GIS Program. 2017.
gisclimatechange.ucar.edu/.
National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration. “Meet the Challenges of a Changing Climate.” U.S. Climate
Resilience Tool Kit. toolkit.climate.gov/.
National Science Digital Library. “Decision Making Using GIS Climate Change Simulation Data.” Using Data in theClassroom. Carleton College. serc.carleton.edu/usingdata/datasheets/GISclimate.html.

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Pyke, Christopher R., et. al. “A decision inventory approach for improving decision support for climate change
impact assessment and adaptation.” Environmental Science and Policy, 10: 610-621. 2007.
UNEP and Copenhagen Centre for Energy Efficiency. Best Practices and Case Studies for Industrial Energy Efficiency
Improvement. 2016. www.energyefficiencycentre.org/publications.
U.S. Department of Agriculture. “Climate Change Tools and Data”. Climate Hubs.
www.climatehubs.oce.usda.gov/content/climate-change-tools-and-data-0.
U.S. Department of the Interior. “Climate Change – Selected Resources, Data, and Tools.” Climate Change. Office ofInsular Affairs. www.doi.gov/oia/climate-change/resources-data-tools.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. “Models, Tools, and Databases for Climate Change Research.” Climate Change
Research. www.epa.gov/climate-research/models-tools-and-databases-climate-change-research.
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. “Climate Resilience Evaluation and Awareness Tool (CREAT).” Creating Resilient
Water Utilities (CRWU). www.epa.gov/crwu/build-resilience-your-utility.
U.S. Forest Service, USDA. “Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning (SNAP).” Climate Change and Carbon
Tools. www.fs.usda.gov/ccrc/tools/snap.
U.S. Geological Survey. “Climate and Land Use Change.” Data and Tools. Error! Hyperlink reference not valid..
United States Data.gov. “Climate Model Projections”. Climate. www.data.gov/climate/portals/.
U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). “Scenarios.” Scenarios for the National Climate Assessment.
scenarios.globalchange.gov/.
USGCRP. “Scenarios: About Scenarios.” Scenarios for the National Climate Assessment.
scenarios.globalchange.gov/content/scenarios.
World Wildlife Fund (WWF). Water Risk Filter. 2017. waterriskfilter.panda.org/.

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4. Scenario Analysis and Disclosures – Other Corporate Examples

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Scenario Analysis
AppendicesBP (2015). “The energy challenge and climate change”. Sustainability Report. 2015.
www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/about-bp/energy-challenge-climate-change.pdf.
CALStrs and Mercer. Investing in a Time of Climate Change Study. 2016. www.calstrs.com/investing-time-climatechange-study.
New York State Common Retirement Fund and Mercer. Investing in a Time of Climate Change: New York State Common
Retirement Fund (NYSCRF) Portfolio Climate Risk Assessment. September 2015.
www.osc.state.ny.us/pension/NYSCRF_climate_change_report.pdf.
OPTrust and Mercer. OPTrust Portfolio Climate Risk Assessment. January 2017.
www.optrust.com/documents/OPTrust_PortofolioClimateRiskAssessment_Mercer.pdf.
U.K. Environmental Agency Pension Fund (2015). “Tackling Climate Risk.” Climate Change. 2015.
www.eapf.org.uk/investments/climate-risk/climate-risk-strategy.

5. Sector-Related Climate Impacts
Agriculture and Forestry Sectors
Deschenes, Olivier and Michael Greenstone. “The economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural
profits and random fluctuations in weather.” Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Working
Paper WP 06-001. 2006.
Fezzi, Carlo, et. al. “The environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality.” Nature
Climate Change, 5: 255-260. 2015.
Fischer, Gunther, et. al. “Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment,
1990-2080.” Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1744. 2005.
Gorte, Ross W. and Sheikh, Pervaze A. Deforestation and Climate Change. Congressional Research Service, March2010.
crsreports.com/download?hash=4151b8e9b3c446089bac138bf73e0f3d1c651646ac0409ea474d14a5ebe5e024.

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Kirilenko, Andrei P. and Sedjo, Roger A. “Climate change impacts on forestry.” Proceedings of the National Academiesof Science, 104: 19697-19702. 2007.
Parry, M.L., et. al. “Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic
scenarios.” Global Environmental Change, 14: 53-67. 2004.
Riley, Jake and Pranjal Srivastava. “Agriculture: An Industry Ripe for Disruption.” Crossings, Sapient Global Markets.
2016. crossings.sapientglobalmarkets.com/2016/11/03/agriculture-industry-ripe-disruption/.
Sohngen, Brent, et. al. “A global model of climate change impacts on timber markets.” Journal of Agricultural andResource Economics 26: 326-343. 2001.

Building Sector
De Wilde, Pieter and Coley, David. “The implications of a changing climate for buildings.” Building and Environment,
55: 1-7. 2012.
Hertin, Julia, et. al. “Climate change and the U.K. house building sector: perceptions, impacts, and adaptive capacity.”
Building Research & Information, 31: 278-290. 2003.

Electric Power Sector
Bartos, Matthew D. and Chester, Mikhail V. “Impacts of climate change on electric power supply in the Western
United States.” Nature Climate Change, 5: 748-752. 2015.
Committee on Climate Change. Power sector scenarios for the fifth carbon budget. October 2015.
www.theccc.org.uk/publication/power-sector-scenarios-for-the-fifth-carbon-budget/.
National Hydropower Asset Assessment Program. Effects of climate change on hydropower — The Second 9505
Assessment. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. 2016. nhaap.ornl.gov/9505-2.

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Introduction

van Vliet, Michelle T.H., et al. “Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate andwater resources.” Nature Climate Change 6 (2016): 375-380.
www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n4/full/nclimate2903.html.

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Energy Sector
Ceres. A Framework for 2 Degrees Scenario Analysis: A Guide for Oil and Gas Companies and Investors for Navigating theEnergy Transition. 2016. www.ceres.org/sites/default/files/reports/2017-03/Framework_Jan%2010%2017.pdf.
Fricko, Oliver et. al. Energy sector water use implications of a 2° C climate policy. Environmental Research
Letters, 11: 1-10, 2016. www.cd-links.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Fricko-et-al-2016.pdf.
Heiligtag, Sven, et. al. “From scenario planning to stress testing: The next step for energy companies”. McKinsey &Co. February 2017. www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/from-scenario-planning-to-stresstesting-the-next-step-for-energy-companies?cid=other-eml-alt-mip-mck-oth-1703.
IIGCC, IGCC, Ceres, and CDP. “Investor Climate Compass: Oil and Gas – Navigating Investor Engagement.” 2017.
www.iigcc.org/publications/publication/investor-climate-compass-oil-and-gas-navigating-investor-engagement.
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis. “Energy Multi-Criteria Analysis Tool.” Interactive Tools. July 2014.
www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/Energy/ENE-MCA.en.html.
U.S. Department of Energy. U.S. Energy Sector Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Extreme Weather. DOE/PI-0013. July
2013. energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2013/07/f2/20130716-Energy%20Sector%20Vulnerabilities%20Report.pdf.
World Resources Institute. A Recommended Methodology for Estimating And Reporting The Potential Greenhouse Gas
Emissions From Fossil Fuel Reserves. Working Paper. 2016. http://www.wri.org/publication/methodologycalculating-potential-emissions-fossil-fuel-reserves

Financial Services Sector
Battiston, Stefano, et. al. “A climate stress-test of the financial system.” Nature Climate Change, 7: 283-288. 2017.
Blyth, William, et. al. “Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy.” Energy Policy, 35: 5766–5773. 2007.
Dietz, Simon, et. al. “Climate value at risk of global financial assets.” Nature Climate Change, 6: 676-679. 2016.

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European Systemic Risk Board. “Too late, too sudden: Transition to a low-carbon economy and systemic risk.”
Reports of the Advisory Scientific Committee, 6. February 2016.
www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/asc/Reports_ASC_6_1602.pdf.
Hawker, Michael. “Climate change and the global insurance industry.” The Geneva Papers, 32: 22-28. 2007.
International Finance Corporation, Mercer, and Carbon Trust. Climate Change Scenarios – Implications for Strategic
Asset Allocation. 2011.
www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/6b85a6804885569fba64fa6a6515bb18/ClimateChangeSurvey_Report.pdf?MOD=AJPERES.
Mercer LLC. Investing in a Time of Climate Change. 2015.
www.mercer.com/our-thinking/investing-in-a-time-of-climate-change.html.

Transportation Sector
Baker, C.J. et. al. “Climate change and the railway industry: a review.” Proceedings of the Institution of MechanicalEngineers, Part C: Journal of Mechanical Engineering Science, 224: 519-528. 2010.
Bows-Larkin, Alice. “All adrift: aviation, shipping, and climate change policy.” Climate Policy, 15: 681-702. 2015.
Cambridge Econometrics. An Economic Assessment of Low-Carbon Vehicles. 2013.
europeanclimate.org/documents/Cars-Economic-assessment-vehicles-FINAL.pdf.
IEA. Global EV Outlook: Beyond One Million Electric Cars. 2016.
www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/Global_EV_Outlook_2016.pdf.
Koetse, Mark J. and Rietveld, Piet. “The impact of climate change and weather on transport: an overview of empiricalfindings.” Transportation Research Part D, 14: 205-221. doi:10.1007/s12544-013-0089-x. 2009.
link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12544-013-0089-x.

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Mamalis, A. G., et. al. “The impact of automotive industry and its supply chain to climate change: Somme technoeconomic aspects.” Eur. Transp. Res. Rev. 5:1–10. January 2013.

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Mander, Sarah. “Slow steaming and a new dawn for wind propulsion: A multi-level analysis of two low carbon
shipping transitions.” Marine Policy, 75: 210-216. 2017.
McCarthy, James E. Aviation and Climate Change. Congressional Research Service. 2010.
crsreports.com/download?hash=9c475e0a379c3482d9d5f420140c939d30113d594c1917d18d7e1c0eab1625dd.
Vilchez, Jonathan Gomez, et. al. Energy Use and Emissions Impacts from Car Technologies Market Scenarios: A MultiCountry System Dynamics Model. Institute for Industrial Production and Graduate School of Energy Scenarios
Karlsruhe-Stuttgart, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT). 2015.
www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2015/papers/P1252.pdf.

Water Sector
Beverage Industry Environmental Roundtable. Beverage Industry Continues to Drive Improvement in Water andEnergy Use: 2016 Benchmarking Study. 2016. www.bieroundtable.com/blank-c1gkm
CDP. Exploring the Case For Corporate Context-Based Water Targets. 2017. pacinst.org/publication/exploring-casecorporate-context-based-water-targets/
CDP. “Thirsty business: Why water is vital to climate action,” 2016 Annual Report of Corporate Water Disclosure. 2016.
https://www.cdp.net/en/research/global-reports/global-water-report-2016
Griffiths-Sattenspiel, Bevan and Wilson, Wendy. “The carbon footprint of water.” River Network. 2009.
www.csu.edu/cerc/researchreports/documents/CarbonFootprintofWater-RiverNetwork-2009.pdf.
Hoekstra, Arjen Y. “Water scarcity challenges to business.” Nature Climate Change 4: 318–320. 2014.
Rothausen, Sabrina G.S.A. and Conway, Declan. “Greenhouse-gas emissions from energy use in the water sector.”
Nature Climate Change 1: 210–219. 2011.
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A
Introduction
B
Scenario Analysis
C
Developing and Applying
Scenario Analysis
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