Survey of Large-scale Office Building Supply
in Tokyo’s 23 wards 2017
April 18,2017

Since 1986, Mori Trust Co., Ltd. (Head Office: Minato-ku, Tokyo) has surveyed trends in the supply of large-scale office buildings
containing total office space of 10, 000 square meters or more within Tokyo’s 23 wards , based on various published materials,field surveys, and interviews. The results of the most recent surveys(including the survey of mid-size office buildings) arepresented below.In the calculation of total office floor area, where the survey deals with multi-purpose buildings—buildings
coupled with stores, living quarters or residences, hotels, etc.—only the floor area purely for office use is taken into
consideration.
[Survey Date: December 2016]

Supply to increase in 2018–20 ahead of Tokyo Olympics—Supply in 2020 to be the third highest ever—Main Results of This Survey
１.Supply of large-scale office buildings

Supply of large-scale office space in 2016 in Tokyo’s 23 wards was 0.99 million square
meters, falling short of the past 20-year average of 1.05 million square meters. While
supply in 2017 is projected to be 0.79 million square meters, lower than the pastaverage, it is expected to increase significantly to 1.39 million square meters in 2018
and 1.77 million square meters in 2020, which would be the third highest ever.
However, in 2021, supply is projected to drop sharply to 0.51 million square meters,
due in part to a negative rebound after the Olympics.
２.Supply trends by area

In 2017–21, the shift toward greater concentration of supply in central Tokyo willcontinue, and supply in Tokyo’s three central wards is projected to be 70% of total
supply. Minato Ward’s share of supply will come close to the level of Chiyoda Ward,
which has the top share, as a result of its share increasing sharply to approximately
30%. By district, the districts within Minato Ward, led by the Toranomon/Shinbashi
district, will account for the majority of supply. Outside the three central wards, supply
will increase sharply in Shibuya, where station area development is expected.
３.Supply trends by type of development site

In Tokyo’s three central wards in 2017–2021, supply provided through rebuilding willremain at around 60%. Other than rebuilding, supply through redevelopment isexpected to increase significantly. Outside the three central wards, supply on
undeveloped/underdeveloped land, including redevelopment, etc., will account for
approximately 80% of total supply.
４.Supply of mid-size office buildings

Supply in 2016 was 116,000 square meters, lower than the 10-year average (133,000square meters per year) for the third consecutive year. In 2017, supply is also expected
to be lower than the past average, but, in 2018, it is expected to exceed the averagefor the first time in five years. In terms of supply share by ward, Chuo Ward will havethe highest share.

For further information, contact:
Keiji Kurokawa
Sales Strategy Department
Mori Trust Co., Ltd. http://www.mori-trust.co.jp
Toranomon 2-chome Tower, 3-17 Toranomon 2-Chome, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0001 JAPANE-Mail: kurokawa-k@mori-trust.co.jp

１. Supply of large-scale office buildings
In 2016, the supply of large-scale office space in Tokyo’s 23 wards was 0.99 million square
meters, below the average of the past 20 years of 1.05 million square meters.
Supply in 2017 is also expected to be lower than the past average, at 0.79 million square meters,but, in 2018, it is projected to exceed the average, at 1.39 million square meters. Thereafter, in 2019,supply is expected to reach the average, at 1.06 million square meters, and, in 2020, it is projected
to increase sharply to 1.77 million square meters, the third highest ever. However, in 2021, supply isprojected to drop sharply to 0.51 million square meters, due in part to a negative rebound after theTokyo Olympics. (See Chart 1-1 on the next page.)
If we divide supply trends from 2017 onward into trends for Tokyo’s three central wards andtrends for other locations, supply in the three central wards will greatly exceed the past average in2018 and 2020, and outside the three central wards, demand will be highest in 2019, when multiple
development projects around Shibuya Station are completed. (See Chart 1-2 on the next page.)With respect to supply trends by building scale, supply in 2017–21 is expected to continue tocenter on large-scale buildings of 50,000 square meters or more. Among these, ultra-large-scalebuildings of 100,000 square meters or larger are expected to account for a record-high share of60%. (See Chart 1-3 on the next page.)

2 . Supply trends by area
The concentration of supply in central Tokyo is expected to continue in 2017–20, and supply inTokyo’s three central wards is projected to be 70% of total supply. Minato Ward’s share of supply
will come close to the level of Chiyoda Ward, which has the top share, as a result of its share
increasing sharply and reaching approximately 30%. Outside the three central wards, Shibuya
Ward’s share will exceed 10% and supply will be greater than Chuo Ward, but shares of Shinjuku
Ward, Shinagawa Ward, and Koto Ward will remain under 10%, respectively. (See Chart 2-1 on the4th page.)
Looking at supply by business district, supply in the Otemachi/Marunouchi/Yurakucho district is
expected to be at a high, prominent level, while four districts in Minato Ward, led by
Toranomon/Shinbashi, will be ranked in the top 10, owing in part to development around
Hamamatsucho Station and Tamachi Station. In districts outside the three central wards, supply will
increase sharply in Shibuya, where development is expected around Shibuya Station. (See Chart2-2 on the 4th page.)

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Chart 1-1

Supply trends for large-scale office buildings in Tokyo’s 23 wards
Office supply in completed buildings
Office supply in buildings under construction
Office supply in buildings to be constructed
Number of supply

36
292214322221201726

29

27(10,000㎡) 23

250

27

29

19

1621 20

23
1950

Number of supply

43

21

40
30
20

18
10

92210

2017-2021average supply:
1,100,000㎡/year

1997-2016 average supply:
1,050,000㎡/year

200

181

177

Supply volume162150

139118

126

119

118

118

99

106

99

100

89
74

90

82

72

92
79

82
66

64

51
50

36

0

'97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11

Chart 1-2

Tokyo’s three central wards andother wards

Tokyo’s
three central wards(10,000㎡)
1997-2016 average supply:
150
690,000㎡/year

Other wards(10,000㎡)
150

130

100

100
64

50

50

50

47

'19

'20

'21

0

Supply and ratio by building scale

46%(340,000㎡/year)'02－'0631%(430,000㎡/year)

28%(400,000㎡/year)41%(570,000㎡/年)

33%
21%(320,000㎡/year) (200,000㎡/year)46%(440,000㎡/year)'12－'1643%(480,000㎡/year)31%(350,000㎡/year)

57%(630,000㎡/year)

25%

26%
(280,000/year)

18%(200,000㎡/year)

50%

75%

25%
(270,000㎡/year)

100%

20

18
'17 '18'20 '2129%
25%(210,000㎡/year) (190,000㎡/year)

0%

29

31

'19

'97－'01'17－'2156

0Chart 1-3

'07－'11
1997-2016 average supply:
360,000㎡/year

110

61

'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18

Buildings of 100,000㎡ or larger'17 '18

'19

'20

'21

Buildings of 50,000㎡ - 99,999㎡
Buildings of less than 50,000㎡

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Chart 2-1

Supply of large-scale office space by ward
［2012−2016］［2017−2021］
Tokyo’s three central wards :3,870,000㎡（70%）

Tokyo’s three central wards :3,930,000㎡（71%）
Other wards :1,630,000㎡（29%）

Shibuya7%
Chiyoda38%
Minato18%

Chart 2-2

212

ChiyodaKoto Other wards
8%
4%
Shinagawa3%

Shinjuku
7%

Other wards :1,650,000㎡（30%）

Supply(10,000㎡）

Chuo

81

Minato100

Shinjuku

38

Shibuya37

Shinagawa20

Koto21Others

47

Chuo
15%

Supply(10,000㎡）
ChiyodaKoto Other wards
4%4%Shinagawa
6%Shibuya12%

Chiyoda31%

Shinjuku
4%
Minato
28%

Chuo
11%

171

Chuo

62

Minato154

Shinjuku

20

Shibuya64

Shinagawa

34

Koto

23

Others24

Top ten districts［2012−2016］（10,000㎡）
70

139
25％

凡60

Supply volume

50
61
11％

40

例

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

417％

326％

255％

30

193％

193％

193％

Konan

Osaki
GotandaNakano

183％

163％

20
100Yaesu
OtemachiMarunouchi Nihonbashi
Yurakucho Kyobashi

Akasaka
Jinbocho Toranomon
Roppongi Ogawamachi Shinbashi

Shinjuku
Kojimachi
Hirakawacho
Kioicho［2017−2021］（10,000㎡）
7014126％

凡6050

Supply volume例

201720182019
20202021

5610％

40

5610％

418％

316％

30

244％

234％

214％

Yaesu
Nihonbashi
KyobashiToyosuMuromachi
Honcho

6（2）

7（−）

8（−）

204％

204％

20
100

Otemachi Toranomon
Marunouchi Shinbashi
Yurakucho

Shibuya

Shibaura
KaiganOsaki
Gotanda

2（−）

4（−）

5（7）

Akasaka
Shibakoen
Roppongi Hamamatsucho

Rank（ ）for previous
timeframe

1（1）

2（5）

9（3）

9（−）

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࠙Chart 2-3ࠚSupply volume in the key business districts［2012−2016］

NakanoIchigaya
Iidabashi
Kudan Jinbocho
Ogawamachi
FujimiShinjuku

Kojimachi
Otemachi
Hirakawacho
Marunouchi
KioichoYurakucho

Chiyoda Ward

Sendagaya
Jingumae

Yaesu
Nihonbashi
Kyobashi

Chuo Ward

Akasaka
Roppongi Toranomon
Shinbashi

ShibuyaToyosuMinato Ward

Approx.supply volume
Konan：500,000㎡〜

Osaki
Gotanda：300,000㎡〜500,000㎡：200,000㎡〜300,000㎡：100,000㎡〜200,000㎡［2017−2021］
Ikebukuro

Yotsuya
Shinanomachi
OtemachiKojimachi Marunouchi
Hirakawacho Yurakucho
Kioicho

Chiyoda Ward

Muromachi
HonchoYaesu
Nihonbashi
Kyobashi

Chuo Ward

Akasaka
Roppongi
Shibuya

Toranomon
ShinbashiToyosuShibakoen
Hamamatsucho

Minato Ward
Shibaura
KaiganApprox.supply volume：500,000㎡〜：300,000㎡〜500,000㎡

Osaki
Gotanda：200,000㎡〜300,000㎡：100,000㎡〜200,000㎡

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3. Supply trends by type of development site

In Tokyo’s three central wards, supply through rebuilding will be approximately 60%, continuing
to account for over half of total supply. Other than rebuilding, supply through redevelopment will
increase significantly. (See Chart 3-1.a.)Outside Tokyo’s three central wards, in 2017–21, supply on undeveloped/underdeveloped land
will account for approximately 80% of total supply, while supply through rebuilding will remain low,
at approximately 20%. As has been the case, most supply will be on “Other”
undeveloped/underdeveloped land, such as idle land. (See Chart 3-1.b.)

࠙Chart3-1ࠚSupply volume and ratio by land for development［a. Tokyo’s three central wards ］［b.Other wards ］(10,000㎡)(10,000㎡)
400

400
65
（17％）

150
（39％）

350

350

300
65
（24％）

250

Supply volume

Supply volume300

200150210（76％）328（83％）

250

200

150

100

100505002007−20112012−20162017−2021

173（84％）237（61％）033（16％）

2007−20112012−2016

110（67％）127（77％）53（33％）

38（23％）

2017−2021

Undeveloped/underdeveloped land : Other
Undeveloped/underdeveloped land : Redevelopment
Rebuilding

࠙Definitionࠚ
Rebuilding :Land (or the development of such land) previously used as one site, occupied by a building for office, hotel, or residence which has been demolished.
Undeveloped/underdeveloped land :Land (or the development of such land) not used effectively; for instance, mixed zones of parking lots and older buildings, densely populated residential
areas, former plant sites, railway sites, or idle land.

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4. Supply trends for mid-size office buildings in Tokyo’s 23 wards
This section discusses supply trends for mid-size buildings with office space of 5,000 square
meters to less than 10,000 square meters.
The supply of office space in mid-size office buildings in 2016 was 116,000 square meters,
below the past 10-year average of 133,000 square meters for the third consecutive year. In 2017,supply is expected to remain below the past average, but, in 2018, it is expected to exceed theaverage for the first time in five years. (See Chart 4-1.)
By supply area, in 2017–18, supply in Tokyo’s three central wards will continue to account foraround 70% of total supply, as development will continue to be focused in central areas. In termsof supply by ward, Chuo Ward will rank highest, while Minato Ward, which, at 40%, had the top
share in 2015–16, will decline sharply. By district, supply is expected to increase in the Chuo
Ward districts of Kayabacho/Hatchobori/Shinkawa and Muromachi/Honcho.(See Chart 4-2 on
the next page.)
Looking at supply by type of development site, in 2017–18, supply through rebuilding willaccount for 80% of total supply in Tokyo’s three central wards. Outside the three central wards,
supply through rebuilding and supply on undeveloped/underdeveloped land are projected toeach account for around half the total. This is the result of supply through rebuilding gaining ashare larger than that for large-scale buildings. (See Chart 4-3 on the next page.)
In addition, in recent years, mid-size office buildings from major developers have increased,and, in 2017–18, their share of supply is expected to account for more than 30% of the total.(SeeChart 4-4 on the next page.)【Chart4-1】Supply trends for mid-size office buildings in Tokyo’s 23 wards

Office supply in completed buildings
Office supply in buildings under construction

3027
22

22

20

23
1613

1997-2016 average supply:
133,000㎡/year

19.5

0

15.5

15.4 15.3

Supply volume

20
101212(10,000㎡)
20.0

15.0

191619Number of supply

Office supply in buildings to be constructedNumber of supply

14.5

14.1
13.1
11.6

11.2
10.0

9.3

9.2

8.4

5.0.0

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11'12 '13'14'15'16'17 '18

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Chart4-2

Supply of mid-size buildings: Ratio by ward and top three districts［2013−2014］［2015−2016］［2017−2018］
Other wards
5%

Other wards
16%

Other wards
18%
Shinagawa2%
Shibuya
3%

Koto
9%

Koto
3%

Chiyoda14%

Chiyoda19%

Shibuya7%

Shinjuku
2%

Chuo
15%

Chuo
35%

Minato26%

Chiyoda25%

Shinjuku
17%

Minato40%

Minato
16%

Chuo
28%

Tokyo’s three central wards :199,000㎡（75%）

Tokyo’s three central wards :144,000㎡（74%）

Tokyo’s three central wards :164,000㎡（69%）

Other wards :68,000㎡(25%)

Other wards :51,000㎡(26%)

Other wards :74,000㎡(31%)

Top three districts

SupplyTop three districts

SupplyYaesu・Nihonbashi・Kyobashi 33,000㎡

Toranomon・Shinbashi

Toranomon・Shinbashi

25,000㎡

Uchikanda・Kandasudacho

Kayabacho・Hacchobori

21,000㎡

Sendagaya・Jingumae

Chart4-3

Top three districts

Supply63,000㎡

Kayabacho・Hacchobori

35,000㎡

15,000㎡

Muromachi・Honcho

27,000㎡

14,000㎡Jinbocho・Ogawamachi

21,000㎡

Supply of mid-size buildings: Ratio by type of development site (2017-18)［Three central wards］［Other wards］
Undeveloped or
Underdeveloped land
53%

Undeveloped or
Underdeveloped land
20%

Rebuilding
47%
Rebuilding
80%

Chart4-4

Supply of mid-size buildings: Ratio developed by major developers*［2007−2011］
Major developers
22%・33,000㎡/year

Others78%・114,000㎡/year［2012−2016］［2017−2018］

Major developers
28%・33,000㎡/year

Others72%・86,000㎡/year

Major developers
36%・43,000㎡/year

Others64%・76,000㎡* Major developer: the developer capitalized at ten billion yen or more

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5.Conclusion

Tokyo’s office space market is continuing to see strong demand for increased space due tocorporate earnings growth, and vacancy rates remain low. New office buildings completed in2016 have steadily eliminated vacancies.
Supply from 2017 onward will vary significantly from year to year, due in part to the impact ofconstruction schedules being pushed back. In 2017, supply will be restricted and the market isexpected to continue to be firm, but beginning in 2018, supply will increase substantially andpeak in 2020, so competition is expected to intensify. At the same time, in Tokyo’s three centralwards, supply primarily comes through rebuilding and, although the increases in office stock inrecent years have been lower than in the past, office stock is expected to increase going
forward.(See Chart 5-1, 2 on the next page.)With companies reforming working styles in recent years and instituting remote work and otherprograms, offices are gradually being expected to play the role not only of conventional
administrative spaces but also of creative spaces that facilitate communication. With supply also
expected to increase, latent relocation demand will need to be stimulated and the appeal of eacharea further enhanced by developing office buildings that meet the changing needs of companies
in terms of both facilities and systems. Additionally, infrastructure development is being carriedout in connection with the Tokyo Olympics, but it will be necessary to continue strengthening
Tokyo’s urban qualities toward its establishment as an international business hub and to further
stimulate demand, both foreign and domestic.

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Chart 5-1

Office stock in Tokyo’s three central wards
Minato Ward
Chuo Ward(10,000㎡)

Chiyoda Ward

5,000
4,384
3,589
3,046

2,000
1,0000'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Source: Compiled by Mori Trust based on “An Overview of Tokyo’s Land” (Tokyo Metropolitan Government)

Chart 5-2

Growth of oﬃce stockThree central wards
Minato Ward
Chuo Ward
Chiyoda Ward％1210

Growth rate

Office space

4,663

3,912

4,000
3,000

4,588

86420-2'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99'00'01 '02 '03 '04'05 '06 '07 '08'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15

Source: Compiled by Mori Trust based on “An Overview of Tokyo’s Land” (Tokyo Metropolitan Government)

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