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February 2024

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The Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF)
JISF long-term vision for climate change mitigation
A challenge towards carbon neutral steel

Introduction
In November 2014, the Japan Iron and Steel Federation (JISF) announced the "Commitment toa Low Carbon Society Phase II" with the target year of 2030. This plan is also reflected inJapan's NDC (2030 target) based on the Paris Agreement, and each member of the Japan Iron
and Steel Federation is making constant efforts to achieve it.
The Paris Agreement invites all Parties to formulate and submit a “long-term low greenhousegas emission development strategies” to achieve the long-term goal. Japanese government
established the “national long-term development strategies based on the Paris agreement”. In
response to such domestic and international movements, in addition to the continuous efforts toachieve the "Commitment to a Low Carbon Society Phase II", the Japan Iron and SteelFederation formulated the “JISF long term vision for climate change mitigation” for 2030 andbeyond, which aims to realize the “carbon neutral steel”.
In February 2021, JISF declared that it "supports Japanese government’s ambitious policy of
becoming carbon neutral by 2050, and it will boldly take up the challenge of achieving carbon
neutrality in order to contribute to the government’s goal. In addition, JISF revised “JISF’s
commitment to a Low Carbon Society” to the "JISF’s Carbon Neutrality Action Plan", updated
the Phase II target (FY2030 target), and amended the "JISF long-term vision for climate change
mitigation". Behind these developments are discussions on strengthening efforts under theParis Agreement to change the 2°C target to a 1.5°C target, and the Japanese government's
formulation of a carbon neutrality policy for the year 2050.
1.

A prediction of future steel demand and supply
Steel materials are excellent in many aspects required in basic materials, such as resource
availability, manufacturing cost, diversity of functions, environmental burdens during production,
recyclability, etc. Because of this, they support our lives as the main materials that make upsocial infrastructure and durable consumer goods, such as roads, railroads, buildings, cars andhome appliances.
In the beginning, steel materials are produced by reducing iron ore, which is a natural resource,
but steel has an excellent recycling characteristic (closed-loop recycling) which is not found inother materials, where most of the reduced steel materials are recovered as scraps and arereborn into new steel products after the end of life of finished products such as automobiles. As
a result, steel materials once produced from natural resources are accumulated in the society
while changing their shapes to various products (Fig. 1).

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Figure 1 Lifecycle of steel and recycling (closed-loop recycling)
Figure 2 shows the accumulation of steel and the transition of nominal GDP in Japan. The percapita steel stock in 1958 was only 1 ton/person, but after going through the high economic
growth period in the 1960's, it reached 4 ton/person in 1973. 15 years later (1988) it reached 7
ton/person, and in another 15 years (2003), it reached 10 t/person. During this time, the rate ofsteel accumulation has been +0.2t/person/year. After that, with the economic maturity ofsociety, the accumulation of steel has been moderate (+0.06t/person/year). The total amountof current iron and steel stock is 1.41 billion t (FY 2021), which is 11.2 ton/person.

Figure 2 The trend of steel stock accumulation in Japan
Source: The Japan Ferrous Raw Materials Association
Correlation between economic growth and the amount of steel accumulated per capita isobserved also in countries other than Japan (Figure 3). Moreover, as the population increases,
the total steel stock amount expands. Steel stock in OECD countries is estimated to be around
10 ton/person, and it is estimated that the amount of steel stock will reach 10 ton/person in

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China in the first half of this century and India during this century (Figure 4).

Figure 4 Transition of steel stock per capita

Figure 3 Relationship between GDP per
capita and steel stock
Source: Muller, et.al, “Patterns of Iron Use in Societal
Evolution”, Environ. Sci. Technol. 2011, 45

Source: “Sustainable steel: at the core of a green
economy”, World Steel Association, 2012

Note: The above results are cumulative values based on "Apparent Crude Steel Consumption" and do notreflect the increase or decrease due to indirect imports and exports.

Table 1 shows the global steel stock in 2015 and the estimated values for 2050 and 2100. The
total amount of steel stock in the world in 2015 is estimated to be 29.4 billion tons and 4.0
ton/person. This is equivalent to Japan's steel stock level in 1973. The world population is
expected to increase in the future as well. Moreover, as the world economy grows, it isassumed that in 2050 the total steel stock will reach 7.0 ton/person and 68.2 billion tons in
total. It is a macro-level assumption that it will take 35 years for the world to increase the steel
stock from 4 to 7 tons per capita, where it took Japan 15 years from 1973 to 1988, and that theworld steel stock would reach 7 tons per capita 62 years later than Japan. While theuncertainty increases towards 2100, steel stock of 10 tons/person was assumed, supposingthat the SDGs (Sustainable Development Goals) are achieved, and the same level of wealthas the current developed countries is realized across the world through economic growth andpoverty eradication.
Table 1 Estimates of world population and steel stock

World Population (billion) *Per Capita (t/person)
Steel Stock
total (billion ton)

2015
7.38
4.0
29.4

2050
9.77
7.0
68.2

2100
11.18
10.0
111.8

*from UN, World Population Prospects 2017
Table 2 forecasts the steel production that would be necessary to satisfy such steel stock
accumulation. In 2015, actual steel production amounts in the world were 1.29 billion tons ofactual steel material used in the final products and 1.62 billion tons of crude steel production.
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Among the iron sources were 1.22 billion tons of pig iron (including DRI) from the natural
resource route, and 560 million tons of scrap from recycling route. For the future, as thedemand for steel products increase (1.29 billion tons in 2015 → 2.13 billion tons in 2050 →3.01 billion tons in 2100), crude steel production will also increase (1. 62 billion tons in 2015 →2.68 billion tons in 2050 → 3.79 billion tons in 2100 ). As for the iron source, the amount ofscrap used increases (560 million tons in 2015 → 1.55 billion tons in 2050 → 2.97 billion tons
in 2100) as the generation of scrap increases mainly due to the expansion of steel stock.
However, as scrap alone cannot meet steel demand, the production from the natural resource
route is essential for keeping up with the steel stock accumulation. Therefore, almost the samelevel of pig iron production now (1.2 billion tons) will still be required in 2100. Figure 5 shows
the forecasts of steel accumulation and supply and demand of steel until 2100 (thepreconditions of calculation is given in Appendix I).
Table 2 Forecast of Steel Production(billion ton)
2015

2050

2100

Amount of steel in final products

1.29

2.13

3.01

Crude steel production

1.62

2.68

3.79

Pig iron production

1.22

1.4

1.2

Scrap consumption

0.56

1.55

2.97
2100

120

11.2

12.0

112

2050
100

10.0
9.8 world population (right axis, billion)

80

2015
7.4

68 total stock (left axis, billion t)

60

40

8.0

stock per capita (right axis) 7.0

6.0

4.0

3.79

20

29
1.62
1.22
0.56

4.0

2.97

crude steel production (right axis, billion t) 2.68
scrap generation (right axis, billion t) 1.55

pig iron (right axis, billion t) 1.20

2.0

1.40
0.0

2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
2037
2039
2041
2043
2045
2047
2049
2051
2053
2055
2057
2059
2061
2063
2065
2067
2069
2071
2073
2075
2077
2079
2081
2083
2085
2087
2089
2091
2093
2095
2097
2099

0

Figure 5 Forecasts of steel stock accumulation and steel production
2.

Long-term global warming mitigation scenario of steel industry
BAU (Business as Usual) Scenario
The amount of crude steel production changes, while the CO2 intensity stays at the current
level for both natural resource route and the recycling route. The amount of scrap recovered (=used) increases with the expansion of steel stock etc., leading to a rise of the scrap ratio in theiron source. Since the scrap does not require the reduction process necessary for natural

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resources, the CO2 emission per unit of crude steel produced will be reduced. However, thetotal amount of CO2 emissions will increase due to the increase in the amount of crude steel
production.
Maximum Introduction of BAT (Best Available Technologies) Scenario
Maximize the diffusion of existing advanced energy saving technologies to the world. IEA ETP
2014 assumes that the reduction potential by international diffusion of BAT is 21%, and that
this will be achieved by 2050. Although the CO2 intensity will be improved compared to the
BAU scenario, the total amount of CO2 emission will increase due to the increase in theamount of crude steel production.
Maximum Introduction of Innovative Technologies Scenario
It is assumed that the innovative technology currently being developed (COURSE 50:
hydrogen-reduction portion, ferro coke, etc) will be introduced at the maximum level from 2030
to 2050, and the CO2 intensity in the natural resource route will be improved by 10%.
Additional Development of Innovative Technologies Scenario
With the innovative technologies under development (hydrogen-reduction steel production,
CCS, CCU etc.) and the achievement of zero emission of the grid power supply, it is assumed
that “carbon neutral steel" will be realized in 2100. Based on the level of achievement in 2050,
low level case (20% reduction in CO2 intensity from the Maximum Introduction of Innovation
Technologies Scenario), middle level case (50% reduction) and high level case (80%reduction) were estimated.

BAU scenario
BAT max introduction scenario
innovative technologies max introduction scenario
super innovative technologies scenario

CO2 intensity（t-CO2/t-crude steel）
2.50

2.00

1.97

1.84

1.67
1.50

1.69
1.32
super innovativetechnologies scenario

1.00

H2 reduction
CCS, CCU
Zero-emission electricity

0.50

0.98
0.61

2030

low level case

1.05
0.97

mid level case

0.25
0.00
2015

1.40

1.23

2050

high level case

2100

Figure 6 Transition of CO2 intensity in long-term climate change mitigation scenario

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total emissions（billion t-CO2）
6.0

BAU scenario
BAT max introduction scenario
innovative technologies max introduction scenario
super innovative technologies scenario

5.0

4.5
3.5

3.9

4.0

3.2
3.0

5.3

3.5

4.0
3.7

3.3

2.0

2.6
1.6

1.0

0.7

super innovativetechnologies scenario
low level case
mid level caseH2 reduction
CCS, CCU
Zero-emission electricity

high level case

0.0
2015

2030

2050

2100

Figure 7 Transition of CO2 emission in long-term climate change mitigation scenario
In addition, when the Innovative Technologies Scenario is executed only with CCS, the total
storage volume in 2030-2100 can be estimated as 91.1 billion t- CO2 in the low level case,101.2 billion t- CO2 in the middle level case, 111.2 billion t- CO2 in high level case. It is also
necessary to solve the issues that go beyond technical aspects, such as securing CO2 storagesites, acceptance from society, implementing entities, and distribution of the economic
burdens. Moreover, the amount of hydrogen required for producing pig iron in hydrogenreduction in 2100 is estimated to be 1.2 trillion Nm 3, and the low cost and stable supply oflarge amounts of carbon-free hydrogen is a requirement for practical application.
3.

Long-Term Climate Change Mitigation Measures by Japan Iron and Steel Federation
40% of the world's steel products are traded across national borders. More than 60% of thesteel produced in Japan is directly and indirectly exported, catering to the global steel demand.
In this way, both the supply chain and the market are globalized in the steel industry, and a
global viewpoint is indispensable for effective measures against global warming in the steel
sector.
Japan's steel industry has greatly contributed to the world's steel industry through excellent
energy saving and environmental technologies. In addition, it has been leading the world in
product functions, enhancing the international competitiveness of our country as well as thecompatibility of human wellness and global environment through development of steel
products contributing to improved functionality and efficiency of the final products, including
weight reduction and electrification of automobiles. These facts are the basis of the current"Commitment to a Low Carbon Society" and constitute the basic idea in the long-term climatechange mitigation measures after 2030.
In consideration of the long-term target (1.5DS target) under the Paris Agreement,
development of innovative technologies that exceed even the innovative technologies
currently under development is required, in addition to the existing technologies. Figure 8
shows the basic idea of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation's long-term climate change
mitigation strategy.

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Figure 8 The Basic ideas of JISF’s long term climate change mitigation measures(3 ecos and development of innovative technologies)
Approach to development of innovation technologies
The Japanesesteel industry is diligently pursuing the development of innovative ironmaking
technologies such as COURSE50 and ferro coke to realize practical application by 2030.
When these technologies are put to practical use, they are expected to reduce CO2 emissionsof natural resource routes by 10% (excluding CCS effect). It is necessary to advance theestablishment of low carbon technologies on the premise of blast furnace use, since the blast
furnace route is considered to be the mainstream of the steel manufacturing in the meantime,
both technically and economically. However, these efforts alone cannot reach the long-termtarget level of the Paris Agreement (Maximum Introduction of Innovative Technologies
Scenario in Figure 7), and " innovative technologies" beyond them are necessary. The
Japanese steel industry will, using the knowledge gained from the development of COURSE50
and ferro coke as a foothold, challenge to develop technologies that will ultimately achievescarbon neutrality from ironmaking process, including iron reduction technologies usinghydrogen, CCS (Carbon Capture and Sequestration) that would recover and store CO2 fromsteel production and CCU (Carbon Capture and Utilization) that produces valuable materials
using CO2 as a raw material.
The challenge also includes the development of technology to produce high-grade steel by
removing impurities from direct reduced iron..
The practical application of hydrogen-reduction ironmaking process is premised that hydrogenis developed and maintained as a common energy carrier for the society, as it is widely used
not only in steel production but also in various sectors such as automobiles and consumer
use. Especially, an important requirement for hydrogen to be used for the production of steel,which is a basic material, is stable supply at low cost, in addition to being carbon free.
Moreover, the implementation of CCS requires, in addition to the development of cheap
transportation and storage technologies for large quantities of CO2, solving issues that go
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beyond technical aspects, such as securing CO2 storage sites, acceptance from society,implementing entities, and distribution of the economic burdens.

2020

Development of technologies specific to iron & steel sector
COURSE50

Raising ratio of H2 reduction in blast furnace using internal H2 (COG)
Capturing CO2 from blast furnace gas for storage

Super COURSE50

Further H2 reduction in blast furnace by adding H2 from outside(assuming massive carbon-free H2 supply becomes available)

H2 reductioniron making

H2 reduction iron making without using coal

CCU

Carbon recycling from byproduct gases

CCS

Recovery of CO2 from byproduct gases.

2030

R&D

2040

2050

Implementation

R&D
Implementation

R&D
R&D

Development of common fundamental technologies for society

2100

R&D
開発 2020

Implementation
Implementation

2030

2040

2050

Carbon-free Power

Carbon-free power sources (nuclear, renewables, fossil+CCS)
Advanced transmission, power storage, etc.

Carbon-free H2Technical development of low cost and massive amount of hydrogenproduction, transfer and storage

R&D

実機化
Implementation

CCS/CCU

Technical development on CO2 capture and strage/usage
Solving social issues (location, PA, etc.)

R&D

Implementation

Implementation

R&D

2100

introduction

R&D R&D

introduction

Figure 9 A road map for the development of innovative technologies

In Conclusion
The super long-term future beyond 2030 includes uncertainties that cannot be assumed at the
moment, such as social situation and technology trends, and the "long-term vision for climatechange mitigation" presented here is to indicate a direction towards achieving the long-termgoal of the Paris Agreement, and it signifies a challenge to realize " carbon neutral steel".
Each member company of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation will, while continuing to fulfill
the JISF’s Carbon Neutrality Action Plan to achieve Japan's mid-term Paris Agreement target(2030), tackle the climate change mitigation measures beyond 2030 with “three ecos” anddevelopment of innovative technologies.

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Appendix I: Assumptions for the calculation of the future steel demand and supplya)Steel stock per capita
2015：4.0t/person (actual data)

World Population (billion)
Per Capita (t/person)
Steel Stock
total (billion ton)

2050：7.0t/person (assumed)
2100：10.0t/person (assumed)
b)

2015
7.38
4.0
29.4

2050
9.77
7.0
68.2

2100
11.18
10.0
111.8

Population
World Population Prospects2017, UNc)

Diffusion and loss
0.1% of the total steel stock was assumed to be diffused or lost.

d) The rate of scrap generationd-1) internal scrap: 12.5% of total crude steel production (2015 actual data)d-2) manufacturing scrap: 9.3% of total steel products shipped out (2015 actual data)d-3) end-of-life scrap: assumed to increase gradually from 0.8% of total steel stock in 2015
(actual data) → 1.5% in 2050→ 2.0% in 2100.
e)

Yield ratio of crude steel to iron source
Yield ratio of crude steel to iron source was set as 91% (2015 actual data) for both pig iron andscrap
Table A-I Future estimates of steel supply and demand

crude steel

Pig iron

Scrap Generation Rate （％）

Scrap Generation (billion t)

Production (billion t)
total

internal

DRI

manufactur
end-of-lifeing

Steel Stockinternal/

manufactur
ing/

EoL/

total

per capita(t/person)

Loss rate

World Pop.

（ ％）(billion)

7.38

crude steel

products

steel stock(billion t)

2015

1.62

1.22

0.56

0.20

0.13

0.22

12.5

9.3

0.8

29.4

4

0.1

2020

1.85

1.35

0.68

0.23

0.15

0.3

12.5

9.3

0.9

34.8

4.5

0.1

7.8

2030

2.1

1.38

0.92

0.26

0.17

0.49

12.5

9.3

1.1

46.2

5.4

0.1

8.55

2050

2.68

1.4

1.55

0.34

0.22

0.99

12.5

9.3

1.5

68.2

7

0.1

9.77

2100

3.79

1.2

2.97

0.47

0.31

2.19

12.5

9.3

2

111.8

10

0.1

11.18

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Appendix II: Consistency with IEA-ETP2017 2DS
IEA-ETP 2017 2DS assumes zero emission from the electricity sector and reduction of emission
from the industry sector by 30% from present level by 2060.
When zero emission from the electricity sector is achieved, emission from grid electricity consumed
in steel production process will becomes zero. Topping this with the effect of maximum
implementation of BAT and the effect of COURSE50 (Hydrogen-reduction) from the Maximum
Introduction of Innovative Technologies Scenario, the emission level in 2060 comes near the 30%
reduction presented in the IEA-ETP 2017 2DS. Furthermore, when the CCS effect of COURSE50 isadded, the scenario shows almost 50% reduction by 2060.
Calculation assumptions:1.

Emission factor from gird electricity：combined average from IGES GRID EF v10.2

2.

Grid electricity intensity in BF-BOF route: 140kWH/t-s (2016 average of Japan)

3.

Grid electricity intensity in EAF route: 872kWH/t-s (2016 average of Japan)

4.

CO2 emission factor in BF-BOF route: 2.4t- CO2/t-s

5.

CO2 emission factor in EAF route: 1.0t- CO2/t-s

6.

Yield of crude steel against iron source: 0.91 (both natural resource route and scrap route)
Emissions Intensity（t-CO2/t-crude steel）
2.50

2.00

1.97

1.84
1.67 BAU Scenario
1.60
1.47 Zero-Emission Electricity @2060
1.30
1.16
BAT max. introduction
0.90
1.04
COURSE50 (H2)0.81 COURSE50（H2+CCS）
0.80
0.59

1.77
1.50

1.56

1.00

0.50

0.00
2015

2030

2050

2060

4.5 BAU Scenario

4.6

Total Emissions (Billion t-CO2)
5.0

3.9 Zero-Emission Electricity @2060
3.7

3.9

4.0

3.7

3.2

3.1

3.3

3.0

2.8

2DS scenario: -30％（2.24）@2060
2.0

2.2

BAT max. introduction
COURSE50 (H2)

COURSE50（H2+CCS）

2.6

2.3
1.7

1.0
Gabi Professional TS DB

0.0
2015

2030

2050

2060

Fig A-lI Relationship between IEA-ETP 2017 2DS and long-term climate change mitigation scenarios

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Appendix III：Rough Estimations on Hydrogen-reduction
It is important requirement that the practical application of hydrogen-reduction ironmaking
process is stable supply at low cost, in addition to being carbon free. The aspects of quantitativeand economic compared with the current coal reduction were estimated as follows.
hydrogen-reduction steel production（The chemical formula）
1/2Fe2O3 + 3/2H2 + 48kJ →

Fe + 3/2H2O

Requirement of hydrogen for 1 ton of pig-ironmaking based on the above formula
reduction：601Nm3＋ compensation for endothermic reaction：67Nm3＋ heat to make molten iron of 1600℃：85Nm3＝ 753Nm3/ton of (theoretical)⇒ around 1000Nm3/ton with assuming process

efficiency of 75%
Quantitative aspects


The amount of hydrogen required for producing pig iron in hydrogen-reduction in 2100: 1.2
trillion Nm3/year.

Assuming 4.5kWh/Nm3-H2 production, 5.4 trillion kWh is needed for hydrogen production
and more for transportation, liquefaction, storage etc.

Economic aspects


Estimation of hydrogen price equivalent for carbon reduction ironmaking; Assuming $200/tcoal and 700kg-coal/pig-iron, coal cost is $140/t-pig iron. Assuming 55% of thermic valueof coal is consumed for reduction (another 45% becomes by-product gases), the cost of
reducing agent is $77/t-pig iron ($140/t-pig iron x 0.55).

The equivalent cost of hydrogen ($77/t-pig iron / 1000Nm3-H2/t-pig iron) becomes 7.7￠
/Nm3-H2

Figure A-III Hydrogen price and coal price
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Appendix IV：The First Step to the future (COURSE50)
COURSE50 project is the national project for drastic CO2 reduction from ironmaking process,consisting of increasing the share of hydrogen-reduction in blast furnace and CO2 capture fromblast furnace gas.

Experimental Blast Furnace

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