IEEJ：October 2021 © IEEJ2021
IEEJ Outlook 2022
Challenges toward carbon neutrality: Voyage in uncharted territory

IEEJ

Outlook

2022
Energy, Environment and Economy

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan

Challenges toward carbon neutrality:
Voyage in uncharted territory
Overview

Rejean CASAUBON
Seiya ENDO
Hiroshi HASHIMOTO
Ryohei IKARII
Yoko ITO
Takehiro IWATA
KAN Sichao
Yasuaki KAWAKAMI
Kenji KIMURA
Yoshikazu KOBAYASHIKen KOYAMA
Ichiro KUTANI
Yuji MATSUO
Tetsuo MORIKAWA
Tomoko MURAKAMI
Yu NAGATOMI
Masayoshi NOGUCHI
Hideaki OBANE
Hideaki OKABAYASHI
Keisuke OTA
Takashi OTSUKI
Atsuo SAGAWA
Yoshiaki SHIBATA
Shigeru SUEHIRO
Takahiko TAGAMI
Yukari YAMASHITA
Akira YANAGISAWA
Emiri YOKOTA

Executive summary

Executive summary
Global energy supply and demand outlook (Reference
Scenario)
India, MENA and ASEAN account for three quarters of the global energy
consumption growth▌

Under the Reference Scenario, which incorporates the expected eﬀects of past trends andextends the energy and environmental policies and technologies to date, global primaryenergy consumption will increase by about 20% between the current level and 2050. As
the macroeconomy expands beyond the increase rate for consumption, the world’s energy
consumption intensity is decreasing, reﬂecting eﬃciency improvements and energy
conservation eﬀorts.

▌

India, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) will lead the global increase in primary energy consumption. The global
share of these three will increase from 18% in 2019 to 28% in 2050. They will account for
76% of the increase in consumption between 2019 and 2050.

▌

Although non-fossil energy increases substantially in this scenario, it appears very
diﬃcult that they could alone cover all the energy consumption. In the timeline to 2050, it
is realistic for the world to expect a combination of fossil fuels and non-fossil energy,
especially in the Emerging Markets and Developing Economies where consumption will
increase.

Middle Eastern oil producers lead oil supply at low production costs▌

In the medium-term, until 2030, global oil demand will increase at an annual rate of 0.5%.
In response, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC
countries will both increase crude oil production. In the longer run, oil production in
North America will peak out, while production in Middle Eastern OPEC countries, whichboast abundant oil reserves, will continue to increase.

▌

As the main axis of crude oil production will shift to Middle Eastern oil producing
countries, Asia’s dependence on crude oil from the Middle East will once again intensify.
Asia’s share will reach almost 80% of the global crude oil imports in 2050, and the world’s
largest oil importer will shift from China to India, with future imports exceeding those of
China today.

Sustained expansion of LNG market due to abundant supply potential▌

In the United States, the world’s largest producer and consumer of natural gas, productionof shale gas will continue to increase at an annual rate of about 1% for a decade or so andstabilise thereafter. Liqueﬁed natural gas (LNG) exports will play an important role inexpanding sales channels and improving trade balance.

IEEJ Outlook 2022

1

Executive summary▌

East and West Africa, the frontier regions of the world’s natural gas, will overtime increase
supply. As there are oﬀshore and, in some cases, small- and medium-sized gas resourcesin these regions, ﬂoating LNG production will be considered a practical option fordevelopment,.

Reduced supply flexibility and unstable supply-demand balance for coal▌

Coal production will increasingly be limited to speciﬁc countries and regions, as the trend
toward decarbonisation is gradually becoming accepted and coal-related investments andloans are severely constrained. Demand remains highly uncertain as the supply structure
becomes less ﬂexible.

▌

By type of coal, production of steam coal will temporarily expand due to an increase indemand for power generation but will decline after peaking around 2040. Coking coalused mainly as feedstocks for steel production will decrease from 1 050 Mt in 2019 to
800 Mt level by 2040.

Power generation is rapidly expanding in Asia. Natural gas will become the largest
power source▌

Global electricity generation will increase at an annual rate of 1.7%, and by 2050 will be
1.7 times the 2019 level. The increase is equivalent to 2.3 times China’s current generation,
the world’s largest electricity generator. 95% of the increase is coming from the Emerging
Markets and Developing Economies.

▌

Natural gas will be the largest source of energy for electricity generation by 2050. As theintroduction of renewable energies increases, the role of balancing supply and demand ofelectricity will become more important than ever. Coal will continue to play a role as abase-load power source, but its share will fall below current levels.

▌

It has become diﬃcult for Japan, Korea, the United States and some European countries
to build new nuclear power plants as planned. On the other hand, China and a few othercountries continue to promote the use of nuclear, while some Middle East countries, andothers, are introducing nuclear. As a result, global capacity will gradually increase
through 2050.

▌

Variable renewable energies, such as wind and solar photovoltaics, will generate
8 409 TWh in 2050, increasing their presence to 19% of the electricity generation mix.
Achieving harmony with energy and social systems is an important issue.

Advanced Technologies Scenario
Advanced Technologies Scenario is still far from achieving global carbon neutrality in
2050, and it is necessary to mobilise all possible means to further promote energy
conservation and climate change measures.
▌

In the ‘Advanced Technologies Scenario’, maximum reduction measures for carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected based on social opportunities and acceptability.
Relative to the reference scenario, the reduction in primary energy consumption in 2050

2

IEEJ Outlook 2022

Executive summary

will be 2.9 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (Gtoe) and the reduction in CO2 emissions willbe 15.8 Gt or 42% less than for the Reference Scenario. Although many countries havedeclared carbon neutrality targets since 2020, it would seem extremely diﬃcult for theworld to achieve carbon neutrality as early as 2050.
▌

The CO2 emission reduction rates for 2030 will be 33% in the United States (compared to2005), 40% in the European Union (compared to 1990), 37% in Japan (compared to 2013),
and 10% in Canada (compared to 2005). All those reductions fall short of the nationallydetermined contribution (NDC) rate of reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
previously announced by those countries. It is clear that further policies and measures
beyond those considered in the Advanced Technologies Scenario are required.

▌

China, the United States, the European Union and Japan have announced net zero
emissions and carbon neutral targets. Scenarios from many of these countries and regions
are expected to reduce emissions by around 80% in 2050, but none of them will reach theirtarget. It is necessary to further develop and quickly introduce emission reduction
technologies that are not commercialised yet.

▌Compared to the Reference Scenario, investment in fossil fuels decreases while investment
in renewable energy increases. The overall investment cost will be $34 trillion in the 2040s.

Road to carbon neutrality▌

Since the Paris Agreement in 2015, many countries, including the United States, theEuropean Union, China, Japan and the United Kingdom, have set carbon-neutral targets
for the middle of this century. Carbon neutrality, however, is by no means an easy target
given the current high dependence on fossil fuels and the path-dependent eﬀects ofexisting infrastructure and supply systems.

▌

While there is of course a positive eﬀect of green growth policies, we should not turn ourattention away from the fact that climate change policies inherently have associated costs
and growth constraints. Measures to achieve carbon neutrality should not be explained
from the perspective of ‘growth’ but should be positioned as a global ‘norm’ that eachcountry should pursue while bearing a certain burden.

▌

One of the major concerns in the process towards carbon neutrality is the emergence andpotential expansion of new disparities. Factors such as economic conditions, resource
endowment and technological capabilities naturally vary from country to country.
Diﬀerences in these factors can produce new disparities by creating winners and losers.

▌

As we move towards carbon neutrality, we will see more electriﬁcation, and electricity
security will become one of the most important energy security issues. The stable supplyof mineral resources (critical minerals), which plays an important role in promoting the
introduction of renewable energy and the electriﬁcation, is also a new important element
for energy security.

▌

The suspension of new investment in crude oil production does not cause a tight supplydemand situation in a few months. However, in both the Reference Scenario and theAdvanced Technologies Scenario in which demand growth slows down, the global oil

IEEJ Outlook 2022

3

Executive summary

supply-demand balance will be a shortage of supply and an excess of demand in 2024.
The suspension of new investment could lead to tight supply and demand and higher
prices in the not too distant future.

Circular Carbon Economy/4Rs Scenario▌

The concept of circular carbon economy is an extension of the conventional concept ofcircular economy. In contrast to the concept of circular economy in which the use ofresources and the generation of waste are controlled through the three ‘R’s of ‘reduce’,‘reuse’, and ‘recycle’, the concept of circular carbon economy is to control the total amountof CO2 in the atmosphere through the four ‘R’s with ‘remove’ added.

▌

In the ‘Circular Carbon Economy/4Rs Scenario’, which anticipates the spread of morediverse decarbonisation technologies than in the Advanced Technologies Scenario, global
CO2 emissions in 2050 will be reduced to 15.7 Gt, less than half of the current level.
Compared to the Advanced Technologies Scenario, more than half of the additional
reductions will be in the non-power sector.

▌

Total primary energy consumption will increase slightly from the Advanced Technologies
Scenario because the introduction of various decarbonisation technologies will generate
additional demand for energy transformation. The share of fossil fuels in 2050 will be 60%,
which is almost the same level as in the Advanced Technologies Scenario. By actively
introducing decarbonisation technologies for fossil fuels, signiﬁcant reductions inemissions can be achieved while continuing to use fossil fuels.

▌

Clean hydrogen (blue hydrogen and green hydrogen) plays an important role in various
sectors and Asia is a particularly large market. The supply will mainly come from North
America, the Middle East and Russia, where fossil fuel resources for blue hydrogen areabundant.

4

IEEJ Outlook 2022

The 439th Forum on Research WorkIEEJ Outlook 2022
Challeng
Challenges
ges totowardoward carbon neut
neutrality:t
Voyage in uncharted territory

Energy, Environment and Economy
Tokyo, 15 October 2021

IEEJ Outlook 2022

The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Energy Supply and Demand Outlookby 2050

5()

$76

&&(

IEEJ Outlook 2022
What is IEEJ Outlook?

- Study to quantify the future global energy supply and demand situation until 2050.
- Outlook with forecast-approach, using econometric models etc.
- Scenario analysis on progress and trends in technologies and policies.
[Reference Scenario (REF)]
A scenario in which trends and changes continue while reflecting current energy andenvironmental policies.

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

[Advanced Technologies Scenario (ATS)]A scenario in which energy and environmental technologies are introduced to the
maximum extent in order to secure a stable energy supply and strengthen climatechange countermeasures.
[Circular Carbon Economy/4R Scenario (CCE)]
A scenario based on the concept of a circular carbon economy with the "4Rs”(Reduce, Reuse, Recycle, Remove). The scenario reflects not only the Advanced
Technologies Scenario assumptions, but also examines the maximum introduction of
decarbonization technology using fossil fuels.
2
5()

$76

Emitters of two
woo-thirds of the emissions declare CN, but...

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

㍣ (QHUJ\UHODWHG&2 HPLVVLRQV JOREDO㍣ %UHDNGRZQRI&2 (PLVVLRQV 

8QLWHG6WDWHV%UD]LO6RXWK.RUHD3RODQG&KLQDDQG&OLPDWH$PELWLRQV$OOLDQFH FRXQWULHV  :KHQWKH&1VWDWHGFRXQWULHVDFKLHYH]HURHPLVVLRQVLQEDVHGRQWKHHPLVVLRQVLQWKH5HIHUHQFH$GYDQFHG7HFKQRORJLHVVFHQDULRV )RU&KLQDWKDWDQQRXQFHG&1WKHHPLVVLRQVDVRI
E\OLQHDULQWHUSRODWLRQEHWZHHQWRGD\DQG 
$YHUDJHSDWKVUHIHUUHGWRWKH,3&&*OREDO:DUPLQJRI&

7KHUHLVDZRUOGZLGHPRYHPHQWWRSXUVXHFDUERQQHXWUDO &1 
&XUUHQWO\FRXQWULHVDQGUHJLRQVHPLWWLQJDERXWWZRWKLUGVRIWKHZRUOG V&2
HPLVVLRQVKDYHDQQRXQFHG&1(YHQLIWKRVHFRXQWULHVVXFFHHGJOREDOHPLVVLRQVLQZLOOEHRQO\KDOIRIFXUUHQWOHYHOV

3

5()

$76

Emissions in countries that have not declared CN increase㍣ (QHUJ\UHODWHG&2 HPLVVLRQV,((- 2XWORRN,((-

5HIHUHQFH㍣ &KDQJHVLQHPLVVLRQV 

,QWKH5()&2 HPLVVLRQVDUHH[SHFWHGWRLQFUHDVHLQ$VLDQLQFOXGLQJ,QGLDDQG
$6($10LGGOH(DVWHUQDQG$IULFDQFRXQWULHVZKLFKKDYHQRWGHFODUHGSXUVXLQJ&1
(YHQLQWKH$76LWLVQRWHDV\WRWXUQHPLVVLRQVLQWRGHFOLQHVLQWKHVHUHJLRQV
45()Developing economies need more energy㍣ 'HFRPSRVLWLRQRIWKHLQFUHDVH
LQILQDOHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQ㍣ (QHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQSHUFDSLWD,((- 2XWORRN,((-

5HIHUHQFH(QHUJ\GHPDQGLQGHYHORSLQJHFRQRPLHVLVJURZLQJVLJQLILFDQWO\EXWWKHJURZWKLV
PDLQO\GXHWRDJURZLQJSRSXODWLRQ
,QGHYHORSLQJHFRQRPLHVWKHHQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQSHUFDSLWDLVVWLOOVPDOOFRPSDUHG
WRDGYDQFHGHFRQRPLHVDQGWKHUHLVPXFKURRPIRUIXUWKHULQFUHDVHLQGHPDQG

5

5()

$76

Power demand is certain to grow
㍣ )LQDO(QHUJ\&RQVXPSWLRQ

㍣)LQDO(QHUJ\&RQVXPSWLRQ,((- 2XWORRN,((-$GYDQFHG(FRQRPLHV(PHUJLQJDQG'HYHORSLQJ(FRQRPLHV,QGXVWU\LQFOXGHVDJULFXOWXUHIRUHVWU\DQGILVKHULHVDQGQRQHQHUJ\VHFWRU(QHUJ\GHPDQGLQERWKGHYHORSHGDQGGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVZLOOEHHOHFWULILHGPRUH$OWKRXJKWKHHOHFWULILFDWLRQRIKHDWGHPDQGLQWKHLQGXVWULDOVHFWRULVOLPLWHGWKHHOHFWULFLW\UDWLRZLOOULVHIXUWKHULQWKH$76
(OHFWULFLW\GHPDQGLVQRWPXFKGLIIHUHQWEHWZHHQERWKVFHQDULRV7KHVWDELOLW\UHOLDELOLW\DQG
VHFXULW\RIHOHFWULFLW\VXSSO\DUHLVVXHVWKDWPXVWEHDGGUHVVHG
5()

6

$76

Decarbonization of the power sector is progressing㍣ 3RZHU*HQHUDWLRQ0L[,((- 2XWORRN,((-DGYDQFHGHFRQRPLHV㍣ 3RZHU*HQHUDWLRQ0L[(PHUJLQJDQG'HYHORSLQJ(FRQRPLHV
J J
S J

95( 9DULDEOH5HQHZDEOH(QHUJ\ SKRWRYROWDLFSRZHUZLQGSRZHUHWF

,QWKH5()PRUHWKDQKDOIRIWKHLQFUHDVHLQHOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGLVVXSSOLHGE\95(+RZHYHULQ
HPHUJLQJDQGGHYHORSLQJHFRQRPLHVWKHUPDOSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQUHPDLQVQHFHVVDU\WRPHHWDVWURQJHOHFWULFLW\GHPDQG
,QWKH$76WKHGHFDUERQL]DWLRQRIWKHSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQVHFWRUZLOOEHJUHDWO\DGYDQFHGE\DODUJHLQWURGXFWLRQRI95(DQGWKHUPDOSRZHUZLWK&&6

7

5()

$76

Decarbonization of non
nn-power
generation sector is difficult,((- 2XWORRN,((-

㍣ 3ULPDU\ HQHUJ\ GHPDQG㍣ (QHUJ\UHODWHG &2 HPLVVLRQV

7KHSULPDU\HQHUJ\GHPDQGLQWKH$76LQLVDOPRVWWKHVDPHDVWRGD\'HPDQGIRUIRVVLOIXHOVGHFOLQHVEXWVWLOODFFRXQWVIRURIWKHWRWDO
2QWKHRWKHUKDQG&2 HPLVVLRQVDUHWZRWKLUGVRIFXUUHQWOHYHOV7KHHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQIURPWKHSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQVHFWRULVVLJQLILFDQWKRZHYHUWKHUHGXFWLRQVLQWKHQRQSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQVHFWRUDUHQRWSURJUHVVLQJPXFK
8
5()

$76

The introduction of non
nn-fossil
energy in non
nn-power
sectors is a challenge,((- 2XWORRN,((-

㍣ 1RQIRVVLOHQHUJ\LQWKH SRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQVHFWRU
J㍣ 1RQIRVVLOHQHUJ\LQWKHQRQSRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQVHFWRU

7KHLQWURGXFWLRQRIQRQIRVVLOHQHUJ\LVSURJUHVVLQJLQWKHSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQVHFWRUZKLOHRQO\D
IHZLQWKHQRQSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQVHFWRU(OHFWULILFDWLRQLVEHLQJSURPRWHGLQWKHQRQSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQVHFWRUEXWWKHUHDUHOLPLWVLQWKH
LQGXVWULDOVHFWRUZKLFKRIWHQXVHVKLJKWHPSHUDWXUHKHDW'HFDUERQL]DWLRQRWKHUWKDQHOHFWULILFDWLRQLVDFKDOOHQJH

9

&&(

Circular Carbon Economy/4R Scenario㍣ $VVXPSWLRQVLQ&&( LQDGGLWLRQWRWKH$76
5

5HGXFH

5HXVH,((- 2XWORRN,((-

5HF\FOH

5HPRYH

7HFKQRORJ\$VVXPSWLRQV+\GURJHQIRUSRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQ$GRSWK\GURJHQDPPRQLDSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQIRURIFRDO DQGJDVILUHGSRZHU
SODQWVZLWKRXW&&6IDFLOLW\DVRI+\GURJHQIRU
WUDQVSRUWDWLRQ

5HSODFHRIOLTXLGIXHOVGHPDQGLQWKHURDGVHFWRULQDGYDQFHGHFRQRPLHVDQG
LQWKHLQWHUQDWLRQDOEXQNHUVZLWKK\GURJHQDVRI+\GURJHQLQLQGXVWU\VHFWRU

5HSODFHRIQDWXUDOJDVGHPDQGLQWKHLQGXVWU\VHFWRUZLWKK\GURJHQDVRI
LQDGYDQFHGHFRQRPLHVZLWKDEXQGDQWK\GURJHQVXSSO\'LUHFWUHGXFWLRQLQVWHHOPDNLQJE\K\GURJHQ$GRSWGLUHFWUHGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJ\XWLOL]LQJEOXHK\GURJHQWRRIFUXGHVWHHOSURGXFWLRQLQDGYDQFHGHFRQRPLHV&KLQD,QGLDDQG%UD]LODVRI+\GURJHQLQEXLOGLQJVHFWRU

5HSODFHRIQDWXUDOJDVGHPDQGLQWKHEXLOGLQJVHFWRUZLWKK\GURJHQDVRI
LQDGYDQFHGHFRQRPLHV5HGXFWLRQRIFHPHQWSURGXFWLRQ

5HGXFWLRQRIFHPHQWSURGXFWLRQE\XWLOL]LQJFRDODVKDQGOLPHVWRQHDQGFDOFLQHG
FOD\DVRI$OJDHV\QWKHVLVWRSURGXFHELRIXHO,QFUHDVHDOJDHEDVHGELRGLHVHOE\IURP$76DVR

&RQFUHWHFXULQJFDSWXULQJ&2

$GRSWFRQFUHWHFXULQJFDSWXULQJ&2 WHFKQRORJ\WRRIWKHZRUOGFRQFUHWHSURGXFWLRQDVRI

6\QWKHWLF PHWKDQH

5HSODFHRIQDWXUDOJDVGHPDQGLQWKHLQGXVWU\DQGEXLOGLQJVHFWRUVZLWKV\QWKHWLFPHWKDQHDVRI

6\QWKHWLF IXHOV5HSODFHRIOLTXLGIXHOVGHPDQGLQWKHWUDQVSRUWVHFWRUVZLWKV\QWKHWLFIXHOVDVRI&DUERQFDSWXUHDQG
VWRUDJH$GRSW&&6IRUEOXHK\GURJHQSURGXFWLRQ)URPWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIGHFDUERQL]LQJIRVVLOIXHOXWLOL]DWLRQWKLVVFHQDULRFRQVLGHUVWKH
PD[LPXPLQWURGXFWLRQRI5 5HGXFH5HXVH5HF\FOH5HPRYH WHFKQRORJLHVLQDGGLWLRQWRWKH
$76DVVXPSWLRQV

10

&&(

Utilize clean hydrogen/ammonia,((- 2XWORRN,((-

㍣ 6XSSO\DQGGHPDQGRIK\GURJHQDPPRQLD
\J㍣ 6XSSO\DQGGHPDQGRIV\QWKHWLFPHWKDQHIXHO+\GURJHQDPPRQLDQRWHPLW&2 GXULQJFRPEXVWLRQDUHXWLOL]HGLQWKHLQGXVWU\VHFWRUDQGIRU
SRZHUJHQHUDWLRQ+\GURJHQSURGXFWLRQFRXOGEHEOXHXVLQJIRVVLOIXHOVDQG&&6RUJUHHQXVLQJUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\
6\QWKHWLFPHWKDQHDQGIXHOVSURGXFHGIURPFOHDQK\GURJHQFDQEHXVHGLQVHFWRUVZKHUH
HOHFWULILFDWLRQLVGLIILFXOWE\XWLOL]LQJH[LVWLQJLQIUDVWUXFWXUHLQWKHQRQSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQVHFWRU

11

&&(

Reduce CO
O2 emissions without reducing fossil fuels,((- 2XWORRN,((-


㍣ 3ULPDU\ HQHUJ\ GHPDQG㍣ (QHUJ\UHODWHG &2 HPLVVLRQV)RVVLOIXHOFRQVXPSWLRQLQWKH&&(VFHQDULRLVDOPRVWWKHVDPHDVWKDWLQWKH$76
'HPDQGIRUQDWXUDOJDVIRUK\GURJHQSURGXFWLRQZLOOLQFUHDVHVOLJKWO\2QWKHRWKHUKDQGWKH&2 HPLVVLRQVGHFOLQHVLJQLILFDQWO\7KHFHQWHURIJUDYLW\IRU
HPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQVLVVKLIWLQJWRWKHQRQSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQVHFWRU
12&&(,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Asia
iaa-Middle East relations remain unchanged,QWKH&&(WKHUHLVDVKLIWIURPIRVVLOIXHOWUDGHWRK\GURJHQDPPRQLDWUDGH
,QWKH0LGGOH(DVWK\GURJHQH[SRUWVFRPSHQVDWHIRUWKHGHFOLQHLQRLODQGJDVH[SRUWV2QWKH
RWKHUKDQGLPSRUWVRIK\GURJHQZLOOLQFUHDVHVLJQLILFDQWO\LQ$VLD(YHQLQDZRUOGDLPLQJIRU
GHFDUERQL]DWLRQWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWUDGHUHODWLRQVEHWZHHQ$VLDDQGWKH0LGGOH(DVWUHPDLQVXQFKDQJHG

13

5()

$76

&&(

There remain many challenges for CN in the world,((- 2XWORRN,((-

㍣ *OREDOHQHUJ\*OREDOHQHUJ\UHODWHGUHODWHG &2 HPLVVLRQV㍣ &2 HPLVVLRQVE\UHJLRQ8QLWHG6WDWHV%UD]LO6RXWK.RUHD3RODQG&KLQDDQG&OLPDWH$PELWLRQV$OOLDQFH FRXQWULHV  :KHQWKH&1VWDWHGFRXQWULHVDFKLHYH]HURHPLVVLRQVLQEDVHGRQWKHHPLVVLRQVLQWKH5()&&(VFHQDULRV )RU&KLQDWKDWDQQRXQFHG&1WKHHPLVVLRQVDVRI E\OLQHDULQWHUSRODWLRQEHWZHHQWRGD\DQG 
$YHUDJHSDWKVUHIHUUHGWRWKH,3&&*OREDO:DUPLQJRI&

7RUHDOL]H&1LWLVHVVHQWLDOWRXWLOL]HQHZGHFDUERQL]DWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVVXFKDVK\GURJHQDQG
&&86LQDGGLWLRQWRH[LVWLQJFOHDQWHFKQRORJLHV5HGXFLQJHPLVVLRQVLVDPXVWIRUDOOFRXQWULHVQRWRQO\GHYHORSHGHFRQRPLHVEXWDOVRHPHUJLQJDQGGHYHORSLQJHFRQRPLHV
,WLVLPSRUWDQWWRSURPRWHDQGVKDUHGHFDUERQL]DWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVXQGHULQWHUQDWLRQDOFRRSHUDWLRQLQRUGHUWRUHGXFHHPLVVLRQVLQWKHZRUOGVFDOH
5()

$76

14

&&(

Summaryْ Reference and Advanced Technologies Scenariosٓ- CO2 emissions are expected to grow in countries that have not expressed carbon
neutrality (CN), such as India, ASEAN, the Middle East, Africa, and others.
- Electricity demand increases in both the Reference Scenario that reflects thecurrent situation and in the Advanced Technologies Scenario where decarbonization
is progressing. The stability and security of electricity supply must be improved.
- CO2 reduction in the power generation sector is likely to proceed, but emission
reductions in the non-power generation sectors will not progress much.
Decarbonization in the non-power generation sector is key to achieve CN.
ْCircular Carbon Economy Scenarioٓ,((- 2XWORRN,((-

- In order to decarbonize the non-power generation sector, clean hydrogen/ammonia
and synthetic methane/fuels using these materials will be required.
- There is a shift from fossil fuel trade to hydrogen/ammonia trade, but theimportance of trade relations between Asia and the Middle East remains unchanged.
- In order to achieve a world-wide CN, it is important to promote and sharedecarbonization technologies under international cooperation.
15

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Challenges and Issues
toward Carbon Neutrality*URZLQJLQWHUHVWVLQFDUERQQHXWUDOLW\z$QLQFUHDVLQJQXPEHURIFRXQWULHVDQQRXQFHGUHDFKLQJFDUERQQHXWUDOLW\&1 DVDWDUJHWE\PLGFHQWXU\,QWHUHVWLQ&1LVJURZLQJJOREDOO\z&OLPDWHDFWLRQVDUHH[SHFWHGWRQRWRQO\DFKLHYHHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQEXWVKRXOGDOVRSURYLGHPXOWLSOHHFRQRPLFEHQHILWVz*LYHQWKDWWKHZRUOGGHSHQGVRQIRVVLOIXHOVIRURYHURILWVHQHUJ\UHTXLUHPHQWVDFKLHYLQJ&1ZLOOQRWEHDQHDV\WDVN6HYHUDOFKDOOHQJHV
DQGLVVXHVOLHDKHDG

z

7KHQHWEDODQFHEHWZHHQEHQHILWVDQGFRVWVRIFOLPDWHDFWLRQVFDQYDU\DFURVVFRXQWU\RUJDQL]DWLRQDQGLQGLYLGXDOz([DPSOHVRIFKDOOHQJHVDQGLVVXHVUHODWHGWR&1
9 3RVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHHFRQRPLFHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHDFWLRQV,((- 2XWORRN,((-

9 'LVSDULW\FDXVHGE\FOLPDWHDFWLRQV
9 (QHUJ\VHFXULW\LVVXHVJURZLQJLQFRPSOH[LW\
9 6XSSO\VWDELOLW\LVVXHFDXVHGE\UHVWUDLQHGXSVWUHDPLQYHVWPHQWV
9 *HRSROLWLFDOLPSDFWV
17

(FRQRPLFEHQHILWVRIFOLPDWHDFWLRQVz*UHHQJURZWKDQG*UHHQGHDO
 n*UHHQJURZWK|LVDFRQGLWLRQZKHUHHFRQRPLF
JURZWKDQGFDUERQHPLVVLRQVDUHGHFRXSOHG
2(&'81(3:RUOG%DQN  n*UHHQGHDO|LVDJRYHUQPHQWbVSROLF\WKDWDLPVWRVLPXOWDQHRXVO\DFKLHYHHFRQRPLF
VWLPXOXVGHYHORSPHQWRIDFOHDQHQHUJ\LQGXVWU\ZLWKMREFUHDWLRQDORQJZLWKHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQ )ULHGPDQ(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ z(FRQRPLFEHQHILWVRI*UHHQGHDO,((- 2XWORRN,((-

 (8HVWLPDWHVLWV*UHHQGHDOZLOOFUHDWHRYHU
MREVWKURXJKWKHGHYHORSPHQWRID
FOHDQHQHUJ\PDUNHWDQGSURGXFWVXQWLO(XURSHDQ&RPPLVVLRQ 
 ,($bV1HW=HURVFHQDULRLVHVWLPDWHGWRDGG
WRWKHZRUOGbV*'3DQGJHQHUDWHPLOOLRQMREVWKURXJKWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIFOHDQHQHUJ\LQGXVWU\E\ ,($ 

18

7ZRNLQGVRIHFRQRPLFFRVWVRIFOLPDWH
7ZRNLQGDFWLRQVz&RVWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKQHJDWLYHH[WHUQDOLWLHV
 &OLPDWHFKDQJHLVDW\SLFDOFDVHRIQHJDWLYH
H[WHUQDOLWLHV $GGUHVVLQJQHJDWLYHH[WHUQDOLWLHVPHDQVWRDFFRXQW
IRUXQUHFRJQL]HGFRVWVWKDWFRXOGHYHQWXDOO\UDLVH
SULFHVDQGUHGXFHWKHWUDQVDFWHGYROXPHRIWUDGHG
JRRGVDQGVHUYLFHV %DXPRODQG2DWHV 
㍣ ,QWHUQDOL]DWLRQRI $QLQFUHDVHLQSULFHVPD\UHVXOWLQOHDNDJHRIQDWLRQDOZHDOWKz

QHJDWLYHH[WHUQDOLWLHV&RVWVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKFDUERQORFNLQ,((- 2XWORRN,((-

3ULFH

 &DUERQORFNLQLVWKHnLQHUWLD|FDXVHGE\FRQVXPHUEHKDYLRUVDQGH[LVWLQJIRVVLOIXHOLQIUDVWUXFWXUH,W
LQKLELWVRUGHOD\VWKHDGRSWLRQRIHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV 6HWR ƈƗŃƄƏő ‫ك‬

6XSSO\&RVWLQFOXGLQJQHJDWLYH
H[WHUQDOLWLHV

 &DUERQORFNLQRFFXUVLQVHFWRUVZKHUHODUJHVFDOHLQIUDVWUXFWXUHRUVXSSO\QHWZRUNGHYHORSPHQWDUH
QHHGHG 5HDOL]LQJ&1PHDQVRYHUFRPLQJWKHORFNLQHIIHFWZLWKVLJQLILFDQWLQYHVWPHQWVLQQHZLQIUDVWUXFWXUHVWKHUHSODFHPHQWRIH[LVWLQJIDFLOLWLHVZKLOHUHTXLULQJ
MREVZLWFKLQJDQGYRFDWLRQDOWUDLQLQJ

6XSSO\&RVWDW
3ULFHULVHVPDUNHW

8QUHFRJQL]HVFRVWDWPDUNHW&XUUHQW2SWLPDOWUDQVDFWHG
TXDQWLW\UHIOHFWLQJ TXDQWL\
QHJDWLYH
H[WHUQDOLWLHV'HPDQG

4XDQWLW\

19

%DODQFHRISRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHHIIHFWVz

9DULRXVYLHZVRQWKHQHWHIIHFWRIFOLPDWHDFWLRQVH[LVW &RQFHSWVRI*UHHQJURZWKRU*UHHQGHDOH[SHFWWKDWWKHZRUOGEHQHILWV
IURPWKHQHWSRVLWLYHHIIHFWVRIFOLPDWHDFWLRQVWKURXJKVWLPXODWHG
HFRQRPLFDFWLYLWLHVDQGMREFUHDWLRQ
 &RQFHSWVRIQHJDWLYHH[WHUQDOLWLHVDQGFDUERQORFNLQE\FRQWUDVWVXJJHVWWKDWFOLPDWHDFWLRQVFDQQRWEHIUHHIURPLQFUHDVHGHFRQRPLF
EXUGHQVDQGZRXOGUHVXOWLQQHWRYHUDOOQHJDWLYHHFRQRPLFHIIHFWV ,IFOLPDWHDFWLRQVDQGHPLVVLRQUHGXFWLRQVDUHUHFRJQL]HGE\DOODVDQHZJOREDOnQRUP|LWPD\EHVXIILFLHQWDVDMXVWLILFDWLRQDQGWKHUHVSRQVLELOLW\IRUHYHU\ERG\WRDFFHSWWKHQHJDWLYHHFRQRPLFLPSDFWVz

7KHQHWEDODQFHEHWZHHQWKHSRVLWLYHDQGQHJDWLYHHIIHFWVFDQ
YDU\IRUHDFKFRXQWU\RUJDQL]DWLRQDQGLQGLYLGXDO,((- 2XWORRN,((-

 ([WHUQDOIDFWRUV*HRJUDSKLFDOIDFWRUVLQGLJHQRXVUHVRXUFHVUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\UHVRXUFHVHWF ,QWHUQDOIDFWRUV$GPLQLVWUDWLYHFDSDELOLWLHVDQGOHDGHUVKLSRIWKH
JRYHUQPHQWWHFKQRORJLFDOFDSDFLW\ILQDQFLDOFDSDFLW\HQWUHSUHQHXUVKLSLQGXVWULDOVWUXFWXUHOLTXLGLW\LQODERUPDUNHWFRQWDLQPHQWRI&29,'HWF
20'LVSDULW\FDXVHGE\FOLPDWHDFWLRQVz&OLPDWHDFWLRQVFDQZLGHQGLVSDULW\RIYDULRXVNLQGVEHFDXVHRIGLIIHUHGFDSDFLWLHVDQGUHVRXUFHHQGRZPHQWVRIHDFKDFWRU
⋇'LVSDULW\DPRQJGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVDQGDPRQJGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV⋈'LVSDULW\EHWZHHQGHYHORSHGDQGGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV⋉'LVSDULW\EHWZHHQUHVRXUFHH[SRUWLQJFRXQWU\DQGLPSRUWLQJFRXQWU\⋊'LVSDULW\EHWZHHQFLWL]HQVZLWKLQVDPHFRXQWU\'HYHORSHG
FRXQWU\$,((- 2XWORRN,((-⋈'HYHORSLQJFRXQWU\$
5HVRXUFH
H[SRUWHU⋇'HYHORSHG
FRXQWU\%⋊⋉⋇&LWL]HQ$&LWL]HQ%'HYHORSLQJFRXQWU\%
5HVRXUFHLPSRUWHU

21

&RPSDULVRQEHWZHHQGHYHORSHGDQG
&RPSDULVRQEHWZHHQGGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVz

7KHH[LVWLQJGLIIHUHQFHVDUHODUJH
㍣*
SH FDS WD  *'3SHUFDSLWD(QHUJ\GHPDQGSHUFDSLWD 
㍣ (QHUJ\GHPDQGSHUFDSLWD

㍣ &2HPLVVLRQVSHUFDSLWD 

&DUERQ EXGJHW DQG DFFXPXODWHG㍣ &DUERQEXGJHWDQGDFFXPXODWHG
HPLVVLRQV

WRQQHV&2 FDSLWD,((- 2XWORRN,((-















2(&'

1RQ2(&'

$6($1

&KLQD

1RWH&DUERQEXGJHWILJXUHDUHH[SHFWDWLRQYDOXHV
6RXUFH‫؟‬,($,3&&*OREDO&DUERQ%XGJHW)ULHGOLQJVWHLQ
HWDO  ,((-HVWLPDWH

22(FRQRPLFEXUGHQIRUWKHGHYHORSLQJZRUOG(FRQRPLFEXUGHQIRUWKH
LQWKHFDVHRI$6($1z

6HHNLQJIRU&1LQDVKRUWHUSHULRGPD\FDXVHDVLJQLILFDQWEXUGHQIRU
$6($1
 $YHUDJHUHGXFWLRQFRVWIRU&1LQRUZLOOEHDURXQGW&2 (OHFWULFLW\SULFHIRU&1LQZLOOWULSOHIURPFXUUHQWOHYHOV $GGLWLRQDOFRVWVIRU&1LQDQGZLOOEHHTXLYDOHQWWRDQG٫ RI
DQQXDO*'3UHVSHFWLYHO\ 6XSSRUWVWRPDNHDSUDJPDWLFURDGPDSWRZDUG&1DUHQHHGHG

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

㍣ $YHUDJH&2 UHGXFWLRQFRVWLQ$6($1

6RXUFH‫؟‬,((- ,($6RXUFH‫؟‬,((-,($㍣ (OHFWULFLW\SULFHLQ$6($1

1RWH‫)؟‬LJXUHRI,($1HW=HURLVEDVHGRQWKHHVWLPDWHG
LQFUHDVHGUDWHRIHOHFWULFLW\SULFHLQWKHZRUOG 6RXUFH,((-,($23

8VHRIGHFDUERQL]HGIRVVLOIXHOVLQWKH
8VHRIGHFDUERQL]HGHYHORSLQJZRUOGz

7KHXVHRIGHFDUERQL]HGIRVVLOIXHOVFDQEHDQHIIHFWLYHPHDQRIHPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQLQGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV &&(VFHQDULRLQWKLVRXWORRNVKRZVWKDW*WRI&2 HPLVVLRQVUHGXFWLRQLVIHDVLEOHZKLOHPDLQWDLQLQJWKHVKDUHRIIRVVLOIXHOV㍣ &2HPLVVLRQVRIGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV,((- 2XWORRN,((-

㍣ 3ULPDU\HQHUJ\VXSSO\RIGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV

6RXUFH,((-6RXUFH,((-24

7ZRGLIIHUHQWVFHQDULRVWRZDUG&1z

5HGXFWLRQRIWUDQVLWLRQFRVWDQGLWVH[WHQVLYHVKDULQJZLOOGULYH
WKH%ULJKW)XWXUHVFHQDULR%ULJKW)XWXUH'HYHORSHGFRXQWULHVOHDGWKH
WHFKQRORJLFDOGHYHORSPHQWZKLFKLVVPRRWKO\WUDQVIHUUHGWRGHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHVz 'HFDUERQL]DWLRQRIIRVVLOIXHOUHVRXUFHVDQGH[SRUWVRI K\GURJHQDPPRQLDHWF ZLOOSURFHHGZLWKDVLJQLILFDQWUHGXFWLRQLQFRVWVz $QLQFUHDVLQJQXPEHURIFRXQWULHVLV
DGDSWLQJZHOOWRD&1ZRUOG
z $GYHUVHHFRQRPLFHIIHFWVRI FOLPDWHDFWLRQVZLOOEHPLQLPL]HGDVQHZ
LQGXVWULHVDQGEXVLQHVVRSSRUWXQLWLHVZLOOVSUHDGDQGWKHHQWLUHHFRQRPLF
VWUXFWXUHZLOOEH DGDSWHG WR&1,((- 2XWORRN,((-z+DUG)XWXUH
2QO\DIHZVXFFHHGLQDFKLHYLQJ&1
DQGDODUJHQXPEHURIFRXQWULHVDUHOHIWEHKLQGnz 7KHULVHRIXQLODWHUDOLVPHPSKDVL]HVWKHULJKWVWR DGYDQFHGWHFKQRORJLHVDQGKLQGHUVWKHVSUHDGRIVXFFHVVIXODGDSWDWLRQWR&1
z 7KHHFRQRPLFWUDFWLRQDQGMRE
FUHDWLRQHIIHFWVRIQHZLQGXVWULHVDQG
EXVLQHVVHVFUHDWHGE\FOLPDWHDFWLRQVFDQQRWIXOO\RIIVHWYDULRXVFRVWVz :LGHQLQJRIGLVSDULWLHVLQWKHZRUOGZLOOPDNHFRXQWULHVWRSULRULWL]HWKHLUQDWLRQDOLQWHUHVWVDQGZHDNHQWKH
PRWLYDWLRQWRSXUVXHFOLPDWHDFWLRQV
DVDQRUPDWLYHHIIRUWVz25

(QHUJ\VHFXULW\ZLWKLQFUHDVHGFRPSOH[LW\z(QHUJ\VHFXULW\ULVNVJURZLQJLQVLJQLILFDQFH
 7KHZRUOGFRQWLQXHVWRGHSHQGRQIRVVLOIXHOVGXULQJWKHWUDQVLWLRQWR&1 ([LVWLQJUHVRXUFHH[SRUWHUVPD\UHLQYHQWWKHPVHOYHVDVH[SRUWHUVRI
GHFDUERQL]HGIRVVLOIXHOVVXFKDVK\GURJHQDQGDPPRQLD $VSRZHUGHPDQGJURZVLVVXHVRIHOHFWULFLW\VXSSO\VHFXULW\EHFRPHVIDUPRUHLPSRUWDQWZKLOH95(bVLQWHUPLWWHQF\V\VWHPUHIRUPF\EHUDWWDFNVUHPDLQLPSRUWDQWFULWLFDOLVVXHV 6XSSO\VHFXULW\RIFULWLFDOPLQHUDOVHPHUJHGDVDQHZSRWHQWLDOVHFXULW\LVVXH
㍣ (OHFWULFLW\GHPDQGLQ,($1HW=HURVFHQDULR,((- 2XWORRN,((-
2XWORRN ,((-

㍣ +\GURJHQWUDGHEDODQFHDV
RILQ&&(VFHQDULR

6RXUFH‫؟‬,($1HW=HURE\26

1RQHZXSVWUHDPLQYHVWPHQWLVQHHGHGWR
1RQHZXSVWUHDPLQYH
DFKLHYH&1E\"z

7KHn1RQHZXSVWUHDPLQYHVWPHQW|FRQFOXVLRQIURP,($bV1HW]HUR
VFHQDULR
 ,Q0D\,($SURYLGHGDEDFNFDVWLQJVFHQDULRWRDFKLHYH&1LQDQGLPSOLHG
WKDWWKHUHDUHQRQHHGIRUQHZRLODQGJDVILHOGWREHDSSURYHGIRUGHYHORSPHQW
DQGWKDWQRQHZFRDOPLQHVRUPLQHH[WHQVLRQVDUHUHTXLUHG
 ,($GLGQRWQHFHVVDULO\UHFRPPHQGQRQHZXSVWUHDPLQYHVWPHQWV,((- 2XWORRN,((-

 ,QWKHQHW]HURVFHQDULRWKHFUXGHRLOSULFHZLOOIDOOWREEOLQDQG
EEOLQ/LNHZLVHWKH/1*SULFHZLOOGHFOLQHWRPPEWXLQ
DQGPPEWXLQ

6RXUFH‫؟‬,($27

:KDWLILQYHVWPHQWVLQRLOPDUNHWVVWRS"z,ILQYHVWPHQWLQQHZRLODQGJDVILHOGGHYHORSPHQWVWRSVGHPDQGZLOOVXUSDVVVXSSO\FDSDFLW\E\
 1RRXWULJKWVXSSO\FUXQFKH[SHFWHGEHFDXVHRIODUJHVSDUHFDSDFLWLHV
 :RUOGRLOGHPDQGPD\UHWXUQWRDJURZLQJWUHQGLQWKHSRVW&29,'ZRUOGWKH
n1RQHZXSVWUHDPLQYHVWPHQW|FRQFOXVLRQPD\EULQJnFKLOOLQJHIIHFW|RQ
OHJLWLPDWHLQYHVWPHQWVWRPHHWVXFKJURZLQJGHPDQG

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

㍣ :RUOGRLOGHPDQGDQGVXSSO\FDSDFLW\SDVRILILQYHVWPHQWVWRSV

1RWH%LRIXHOVDUHH[FOXGHG6XSSO\FDSDFLW\LVDVVXPHGWR
1
W %L I OO G G 6O
LW L
GW
GHFOLQHE\DQQXDOO\
6RXUFH‫؟‬,($,((-HVWLPDWH㍣ :RUOGRLOGHPDQGDQGVXSSO\FDSDFLW\LILQYHVWPHQWVWRSV

1RWH'HPDQGH[FOXGHVELROIXHOV6RXUFHV,($,((-HVWLPDWHV

28:KDWLIQRQHZLQY:KDWLIQRQHZLQYHVWPHQWVDUHPDGHLQ
WKH/1*PDUNHW"z/1*VXSSO\FDSDFLW\LVH[SHFWHGWRJURZXQWLOWKHODWHV
/1*
O
LW L

z

/1*VSRWSULFHVKDYHVKDUSO\ULVHQ
 0XOWLSOHIDFWRUVVXFKDVSRVW&29,'GHPDQGUHFRYHU\VZLWFKLQJWRORZFDUERQSRZHUVRXUFHVZLQGFRQGLWLRQLQ(XURSHFDXVHGUHFHQWVSLNHLQSULFHV 5HVWUDLQHGLQYHVWPHQWVZLOODJJUDYDWHWKHPDUNHWbVXQFHUWDLQWLHVDQGWULJJHU
SULFHLQVWDELOLWLHV
㍣ 6SRW/1*SULFHVLQ$VLD ,((- 2XWORRN,((-

㍣ :RUOG/1*VXSSO\FDSDFLWLHV

6RXUFH,((-6RXUFH,&,629)XUWKHUXQHYHQGLVWULEXWLRQRIVRXUFHV$VGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVFRQVLGHUQRWLQYHVWLQJLQIRVVLOIXHOVWKHILQDQFLQJ PD\
FRPHIURPRLOH[SRUWLQJFRXQWULHVDQGHPHUJLQJHFRQRPLHV LQWKHIXWXUHz•,QWHUQDWLRQDORLO FRPSDQLHV ,2& LQGHYHORSHG FRXQWULHVDUHOHVVOLNHO\WRLQYHVWLQXSVWUHDP ZKLOHWKH\DUHDOORFDWLQJDJURZLQJ FDSLWDOWRGHFDUERQL]DWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV

•0HDQZKLOHVWDWHRZQHGRLOFRPSDQLHV 12&V LQRLOSURGXFLQJDQGHPHUJLQJFRXQWULHV
DUHPRUHOLNHO\WRLQYHVWLQIRVVLOIXHOVWKDQGHFDUERQL]DWLRQDQGZLOOEHFRPHPRUH
LQIOXHQWLDOLQLQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHWV

㍣ $OORFDWLRQRI&$3(;E\PDMRU,2&V,((- 2XWORRN,((-&RPSDQ\,QYHVWPHQWSODQ&KHYURQ,QYHVWRYHU0WRHQHUJ\WUDQVLWLRQ

6KHOO

6KDUHRIXSVWUHDPLQYHVWPHQWVZLOEHORZHUHGIURPWRIURPWR6KDUHRIJDVDQGFKHPLFDOZLOO
EHORZHUHGIURPWR6KDUHRIUHQHZDEOHDQG
PDUNWHLQJZLOOEHUDLVHGIURPWR

ES

6KDUHRIORZFDUERQHOHFWULFLW\DQGHQHUJ\DQGFRQVXPHUDQG
PRELOLW\ZLOOEHUDLVHGIURPLQWRLQ

7RWDO(QHUJLHV(1,
5HSVRO(TXLQRU

6KDUHRILQYHVWPHQWWR/1*ZLOOEHPDLQWDLQHGDWXQWLO6KDUHRIUHQHZDEOHDQGHOHFWLFLW\ZLOOEHUDLVHG
IURP IURPWR WR WR DQG
 IURPWR 
6KDUHRIXSVWUHDPLQYHVWPHQWVZLOOEHIURPWR6KDUHRIJUHHQDQGPDUNHWLQJZLOOEH
6KDUHRIXSVWUHDPLQYHVWPHQWVZLOOEHIURPWR6KDUHRIGRZQVWUHDP LQFOELRIXHOV ZLOOEH
6KDUHRIORZFDUERQSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQZLOOEH
6KDUHRIUHQHZDEOHDQGORZFDUERQVHFWRUVZLOOEHUDLVHG
IURPLQWRPRUHWKDQLQ

6RXUFHHDFKFRPSDQ\bVZHEVLWH㍣ 6KDUHRI,2&DQG12&LQWKH
ZRUOGRLODQGJDVVXSSO\LQ

6RXUFH,($2LODQG*DV,QGXVWU\LQ(QHUJ\7UDQVLWLRQV

30&KLQDbVJURZLQJSUHVHQFHLQD&1ZRUOGz&KLQDbVSUHVHQFHLVOLNHO\WRH[SDQGLQDZRUOGKHDGLQJWRZDUG&1
 ,WVSUHVHQFHZLOOJURZLQWKHILHOGRIUHQHZDEOHHQHUJ\FULWLFDOPLQHUDOVDV ZHOODVIRVVLOIXHOV,((- 2XWORRN,((-

 $KLJKOHYHORIFRPSHWLWLRQZLWKGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVFRXOGOHDGWRLQWHUQDWLRQDOGLYLVLRQVRUFRQIOLFWV
㍣ 3URFHVVFDSDFLW\RIIRVVLOIXHOV
㍣ ,QYHVWPHQWVLQUHQHZDEOH
DQGFULWLFDOPLQHUDOVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQ5HIHUHQFH
VFHQDULR

6RXUFH‫؟‬,($7KH5ROHRI&ULWLFDO0LQHUDOVLQ&OHDQ(QHUJ\
7UDQVLWLRQV

6XPPDU\z

7KHWUDQVLWLRQWR&1ZLOOSURYLGHSRVLWLYHHFRQRPLFLPSDFWVDVZHOODVLQFXUFRVWV 7KHQHWLPSDFWYDULHVIURPFRXQWU\WRFRXQWU\z

7KHWUDGLWLRQDOHQHUJ\VHFXULW\LVVXHVDUHEHFRPLQJPXOWLGLPHQVLRQDODQGFRPSOH[ ,VVXHVRILPSRUWGHSHQGHQFHRQUHVRXUFHVLVVXHVRISRZHUVXSSO\VHFXULW\DQGLVVXHVRIVHFXULQJFULWLFDOPLQHUDOVz

7KHnQRQHZXSVWUHDPLQYHVWPHQW|FRQFOXVLRQLVDQDGGHGULVNIDFWRUWKDWFRXOGGHVWDELOL]HVXSSO\ ,WLVQHFHVVDU\WRGHVLJQDSUDJPDWLF&1WUDQVLWLRQSURFHVVEDVHGRQDFWXDOVXSSO\DQGGHPDQGFRQGLWLRQVRIH[LVWLQJHQHUJ\VRXUFHVDQGEDVHGRQWKH
FXUUHQWVLWXDWLRQRIHDFKFRQVXPLQJFRXQWU\bVHQHUJ\PDUNHW,((- 2XWORRN,((-z

7KHWUDQVLWLRQWR&1VKRXOGSURFHHGLQDQLQFOXVLYHPDQQHU
 7KHGLYHUVHHQHUJ\DQGHFRQRPLFSURILOHVRIHDFKFRXQWU\VKRXOGEH
UHVSHFWHGVRDVQRWWRFDXVHGLVSURSRUWLRQDWHEXUGHQVWRDFKLHYH&1
 $VVLVWDQFHWRGHYHORSDUHDOLVWLFURDGPDSIRU&1FRRSHUDWLRQIRUWKH
LQWURGXFWLRQRIIRVVLOIXHOGHFDUERQL]DWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVSURYLVLRQRIILQDQFLQJKXPDQUHVRXUFHGHYHORSPHQWQHHGWREHSURYLGHGIRUVPRRWKWUDQVLWLRQWR&1E\GHYHORSLQJFRXQWULHV
32

,((- 2XWORRN,((-
RRN,((-

Reference materials

Geographical coverageCountries/regions in the world are geographically aggregated into 42 regions.
Especially the Asian energy supply/demand structure is considered in detail, aggregating
the area into 15 regions. That of the Middle East is also aggregated into 8 regions.

Advanced Europe
North America-U
United States
St- Canada-U
Unitednited Kingdom
King-G
Germany- FFrance
r
rance
- It
Italy
taly
- Others

Other Europe/Eurasia-R
Russiaussia-O
Other Fo
Former Soviet UnionU-O
Other Emerging andDeveloping Europe

Middle East
Latin America,((- 2XWORRN,((-

-M
Mexicoexico-BBrazil-C
Chile- Others

Intl. Bunkers- AviationA- Marine
Source: [Map] www.craftmap.box-i.net-Saudi
-Sa
Sa
aud
audi
a
udi
di ArabiaArra
abia
a - IIran
r
ran
- Ir
Iraq
raq - UA
UAE
U
AE - Ku
A
Kuwait
K
-Q
Qata
Qatar
ar - Oman- Others

Africa- So
Southouth Africa
A(R(Rep. of)-N
North Af
Africa- Others

Asia

- Ja
Japan
apan
a
pan - China
C a - IIndia
n
ndia
-C
Chinesehinesee TaipTaipeiTaTpeipeei - Korea
K
Ko-H
Hong Kong
Kong
g - IIn
Indonesiandndondonesian-M
Malaysia - Philippines
P
Phi
Phili
-T
Thailandhailand - Vi
Viet
Vet Name-S
Singapore
ingaporre - Myanm
ingapore
MyanmarM-B
Bruneirunei D
Darussalam- Others

OceaniaO
i- Australia
A- New Zealand35Modelling framework
Major assumptions
Macroeconomic modelCalculate GDP-related indices,
price indices, activity indicesincluding material production,etc. consistently.

Technology assessment
model,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Use a bottom-up approach to
calculate future efficiencies ofappliances, vehicles, etc.

Optimal power
generation planning
model
Calculate the cost-optimal
power generation mix to meetthe projected future electricity
demand.

GDP, population, energy
prices, exchange rates,international trade, etc.

Energy supplydemand model
Econometric model to project
future energy supply anddemand by regression
analysis of historical trends
based on the energy balancetables data of theInternational Energy Agency.
This model calculates energy
demand, supply andtransformation as well as
related indices including CO2
emissions, CO2 intensities andenergy self-sufficiency ratios.
Experts’ opinions

World trade model
Use the linear programming(LP) method to calculate thefuture international tradeflows of crude oil, petroleum
products, etc.

Computable generalequilibrium model
Estimate economic impacts
induced by changes in energy
supply and demand, based on
input-output table data.

Climate change modelCalculate future GHG
concentration in theatmosphere, temperature rise,damage caused by climatechange, etc.
36

Basic scenarios in IEEJ Outlook
Reference Scenario,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Reflects past trends with technology
progress and current energy policies,
without any aggressive policies for
low-carbon measures

Advanced Technologies
Scenario
Assumes introduction of powerfulpolicies to address energy security andclimate change issues with the utmost
penetration of low-carbon
technologies

Socio-economic
structure

Stable growth led by developing economies despite slower population growth.
Rapid penetration of energy consuming appliances and vehicles due to higher
income.

International energy
prices

Oil supply cost increases along withdemand growth.
Natural gas prices converge among
Europe, North America and Asia
markets.
Coal keeps unchanged with today’slevel.

Slower price increase due to lower
demand growth (coal price decreases)

Energy andenvironmental policies

Gradual reinforcement of low-carbon
policies with past pace

Further reinforcement of domestic
policies along with international
collaboration

Energy andenvironmental
technologies

Improving efficiency and declining
cost of existing technology with past
pace

Further declining cost of existing andpromising technology
37

Assumptions

Population
CAGR

Composition

North America

0.5%Latin America

0.5%

Asia

0.0%

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Middle East

4
2.1%
0.8%

World
0%

1%

4.7

4.2

2%

3%

Asia
Latin America

2

0.8%
-1%

Oth. Europe/Eurasia
Advanced Europe-0.01%

Oceania

Oceania
Africa6

Africa1980-20192019-2050

2.5

7.7
1.3

1.2%

Advanced Europe
Oth. Europe/Eurasia

8

0.4%

Middle East

9.7

10
BillionNorth America
0.6

0.8

2019

2050

0

Compound annual growth rate

38
Assumptions

Real GDP
CAGR
North America

Composition

2.0%

Latin America

3.5%

Middle East

Oth. Europe/Eurasia,((- 2XWORRN,((-

World
1980-20192019-2050

150

183

32

2.5%

Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/Eurasia

1.3%
100

2.3%

AfricaOceania$2010 trillion

2.6%

Asia

Advanced Europe

200

4.1%
1.9%

85

Compound annual growth rate

77

50

0

Middle East
Asia

22

Latin America
27

2.5%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%Advanced Europe

20
2019

North America
37
2050

39

Assumptions

Reference :Advanced Technologies :International energy prices

Natural gas

Crude oil
20 $/MBtu

150 $/bbl

15

100

Japan
Europe (UK)
United States

10
50

5

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

01980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Coal

CIF import prices for Japan

150 $/t

1,000 $/toe800,((- 2XWORRN,((-

100

600
400

50

200
0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

01980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Note: Historical prices are nominal. Assumed future prices as real in $2020.

40

Assumptions

Energy and environmental technology
2050
2019

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

Assumptions for Advanced Technologies Scenario

Improving energy efficiency
Intensity in steel industry(ktoe/kt)

0.271

0.244

0.205

Intensity in non-metallic
minerals industry

0.092

0.076

0.064

Electrified vehicle share inpassenger car sales

5%

63%

91%

Cost reduction of electrified vehicles.
Promotion measures including fuel supply infrastructure.

Average fuel efficiency in new
passenger car (km/L)

14.4

26.8

37.0

*electrified vehicle includes hybrid vehicle, plug-in hybrid vehicle, electric vehicle andfuel-cell vehicle

Buildings

Residential total efficiency(Y2019=100)

100

157

201

Efficiency improvement at twice the speed for newly installed appliance,
equipment and insulation.

Commercial total efficiency

100

153

178

Power

Thermal generation efficiency(Power transmission end‫ك‬

38%

46%

46%

Biofuels for transport (Mtoe)

95

145

268

Development of next generation biofuel with cost reduction.
Relating to agricultural policy in developing regions.

Nuclear power generation capacity (GW)

428

476

731

Appropriate price in wholesale electricity market.
Framework for financing initial investment in developing regions.

Wind power generation capacity (GW)

622

1,981

3,890

Solar PV power generation capacity

581

3,015

5,427

Thermal power generation capacity withCCS (GW)

0

0

1,152

Installing CCS after 2030 (regions which have storage potential except foraquifer).

Zero-emission generation ratio (incl. CCS)

37%

44%

80%

Efficient operation of power system including international power grid.

Industry

Transport

100% penetration of Best Available Technology by 2050.

Electrification in space heating, water heater and cooking (clean cooking
in developing regions).
Financial scheme for initial investment in high-efficient thermal power
plant.

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Penetrating low-carbon technology

Further reduction of generation cost.
Cost reduction of grid stabilization technology.
Efficient operation of power system.

41

Reference Scenario

Population, GDP, energy and CO2Advanced Economies
300

Emerging Market and Developing Economies
300

Population

305

Population

Real GDP

Real GDP

Primary energy consumption

Primary energy consumption

CO2 emissions

CO2 emissions

200

200
162
138
131
126

Y2019=100
104
90
77

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

100

0

Y2019=100100

01980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

42
Reference Scenario

Primary energy consumption,((- 2XWORRN,((-

By region

By energy source

20,000 Intl. bunkers
Mtoe Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/Eurasia
Advanced Europe
15,000 Middle East
Asia
Latin America
North America

20,00010,00010,000

5,000

5,000

Mtoe

Other renewables
17,675
16,955
15,869

Hydro
Nuclear15,000Natural gas
Oil

14,486

12,813

Coal
10,0038,738

001990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

43

Reference Scenario

Primary energy consumption (by region)
Energy consumption
10,000
Mtoe

North America
Latin America
Asia
Middle East

8,000

Advanced Europe
Oth. Europe/Eurasia
Africa6,000

Oceania

4,000

Mtoe

CAGR

Asia

1,964

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0.9%

Africa497

1.5%

Middle East

394

1.3%

Latin America

337

1.1%

Oth. Europe/Eurasia

101

0.3%

Oceania -3

2,000,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Changes (2019-2050)-0.1%

North America

-169

-0.2%

Advanced Europe

-258

-0.5%

44
Reference Scenario

Primary energy consumption (by energy source)
Energy consumption
6,000
Mtoe

Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Other renewables

4,000

Changes (2019-2050)
Mtoe
Natural gas

1,494

Other
renewables

960

Oil

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

2,000

713

1.2%

1.5%

0.5%

Hydro

133

1.0%

Nuclear

129

0.5%

Coal

0

CAGR

-0.2%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

45

Reference Scenario

Primary energy consumption (by sector)
Energy consumption
5,000

Industry

Mtoe

Transport

Changes (2019-2050)
Mtoe

Buildings, etc.
Non-energy use

4,000

CAGR

Gen. & trans.
losses852

0.8%Transport

733

0.7%

Gen. & trans. losses
Other transf.
3,000

Buildings, etc.

559

0.5%

Industry

479

0.5%

Non-energy use

366

1.1%

Other transf.

200

0.5%

2,000

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

1,000

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

46
Reference Scenario

Final energy consumption
By energy source

By sector
14,000Mtoe
12,00014,000

OthersBuildings, etc.

Mtoe

Electricity

Transport

12,000Natural gas

Non-energy use

Industry
10,00010,000

8,000

8,000

Oil

12,12011,576
10,880
9,983

Coal
8,801
7,004

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

6,236
6,000

6,000

4,000

4,000

2,000

2,000
0

0
1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

47

Reference Scenario

Oil consumption
By region
120
Mb/d
100

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

80

By sector

Intl. bunke
bunkers
Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/Eurasia
Eur
Advanced Eur
EuropeMiddle East
Asia
Latin A
America
ica
ica
North America

120

Transformation

Mb/dNon-energy use

100

Buildings, etc.
Transport
Industry

98

93

104

108

86

76

80
67

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0
1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

48
Reference Scenario

Crude oil production
By region
120
Mb/d

Changes (2019-2050)

AfricaEurope/Eurasi
Europe/Eurasia

100

Middle East80

Asia & Oceania
83
3
Latin Americaca
75
75
North America
65

95

99

104

108
Middle East

9

Latin America

7

Africa60

4020,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Mb/d

0

2

Asia & Oceania-1

North America-1Europe/Eurasia-2

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

49

Reference Scenario

Net exports and imports of oil
20192

North America

2030

5

2050
1

Latin America

11

Advanced Europe,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Middle East

9

13
4
8
7

Japan, Korea& Chinese Taipei

8
4

6
1

Other Asia

1
22

3
1

Oceania

29
40

4

ASEAN

9

Africa

11

India

8

Oth. Europe/Eurasia

10

China

20

20

Net import

Net export

0

Net export

1

Mb/d
20

0

20

Mb/d
40

Net import50
Reference Scenario

Petroleum product consumption
Amount
120
Mb/d
100

80

Other products
LPG
Heavy fuel oil
Gas/Diesel oil
KeroseneJet fuel
Naphtha81
Gasoline
72

Shares
100%

86

92

98

102

63

80%

60%

60
40%
40
20%

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

20

0

0%
1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

51

Reference Scenario

Major trade flows of crude oil (2020)
Unit: Mb/dOther Europe / Eurasia

Advanced
Europe

4.1
1.8

5.2

Middle East

2.6
2
.6

2.0
Africa

0.5

1.8
China

North America

1.3

JJapan,apa
pa Korea andChinese Taipei

0.8South Asia

0.5

1.5

Southeast Asia

1.3

1.8
1
8

1.6

Latin America

0.5

4.6

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Oceania

Note: 0.5 Mb/d or more are shown

52
Reference Scenario

Major trade flows of crude oil (2050)
Unit: Mb/dOther Europe / Eurasia

Advanced
Europe

3.8
1.9

5.1

Middle East

9.0
9
.0

1.2
Africa

0.7

1.9
China

JJapan,apa
pa Korea andChinese Taipei

South Asia

1.1
1.4

Southeast Asia

5.3
5
3

North America

0.6

0.7

0.6
0.7
1.8
1.6

3.2

1.4

0.9
Latin America,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Oceania

Note: 0.5 Mb/d or more are shown53

Reference Scenario

Natural gas consumption
By region
7,000
Bcm
6,000
5,000

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

4,000

By sector

Intl. bunkers
Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/Eurasia
Advanced Europe
Middle East
Asia
Latin America
North America

7,000Transformation

Bcm

Non-energy use

6,000

Buildings, etc.

5,000

5,847
5,321

Transport
Industry

4,677
4,048

4,000

3,000

3,000

2,000

2,000

1,000

1,000

3,291
2,489
2,001

0

0
1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

54
Reference Scenario

Natural gas production
By region
7,000

Oceania

Bcm

Africa6,000

Oth. Europe/Eurasia

5,000

5,938
5,394

Advanced Europe
Middle East

4,732

Asia
Latin America

4,000

Changes (2019-2050)

4,089

North America
3,284

3,000

2,504
2,058

2,000

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

1,000

Bcm
Middle East

501

Africa

421

Asia

366

North America

279

Latin America

148

Oth. Europe/Eurasia

133

Oceania

118

Advanced Europe -116

01990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

55

Reference Scenario

Net exports and imports of natural gas
2019

107

North America

2030

195

327

Advanced Europe,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Middle East

291

45
128
190

Japan, Korea &Chinese Taipei

392
87

132

59
101

Oceania

304
300

223
10

Other Asia

243

Net export

175

ASEAN

397

600

36

India

15

Africa

183

2050
39

Latin America

Oth. Europe/Eurasia

121

China

0

206

Bcm
300 600

600

Net import

Net export

300

0

300

Bcm
600

Net import

56
Reference Scenario

LNG demand in selected regions

800

740

Mt
700

625
Int'l bunker

600
488

500
400

AfricaEurope356

Middle East

300

Asia

200

Latin America,((- 2XWORRN,((-

100

North America
0
2020

2030

2040

2050

57

Reference Scenario

Major trade flows of natural gas (2020)
Unit: Bcm

Advanced
EuropeOther Europe/Eurasia
158
30

30

32
MiddleEast
1313South Asia 17

Africa42

North America

Japan, Korea andChinese Taipei

China

27

16

14

43

37

Southeast
Asia

56

25
8

64

44
Latin
America,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Oceania

Pipeline
LNG

58
Reference Scenario

Major trade flows of natural gas (2050)
Unit: Bcm

Advanced
EuropeOther Europe/Eurasia
241
49

30
55
Africa

60

20
20

45

North America

Middle70
East
South Asia
45

25

27

55

China

Japan, Korea andChinese Taipei

20

16

75

35
Southeast
Asia 40

Latin
America60,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Oceania
20
Pipeline
LNG

59

Reference Scenario

Coal consumption
By region
7,000
Mtce
6,000

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

5,000

Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/Eurasia
Oth
Eur
Advanced Europe
Eur
Middle East
Asia
Latin AmericaAaNorth America

By sector
7,000Transformation

Mtce

Non-energy use

6,000

Buildings, etc.

5,000

4,000

4,000

3,000

3,000

2,000

2,000

1,000

1,000

Transport 5,220
Industry

5,540 5,585 5,499

5,197

3,172 3,306

001990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

60
Reference Scenario

Coal production
By region
7,000
Mtce
6,000
5,000

Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/EurasiaOthEur5,7 5,583
5,717
Advanced Europe
Eur
5,496
5
Middle East 5,231
5,194
Asia
Latin A
AmericaaNorth America

4,000
3,175 3,253
3,000,((- 2XWORRN,((-

2,000

Changes (2019-2050)

Mtce
Africa59

Oceania23

Middle East

0

Oth. Europe/Eurasia-7

Latin America-12Advanced Europe

1,000

Asia

0

North America

-51
-243
-291

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

61

Reference Scenario

Net exports and imports of coal

North America

96

2019

95

2050

2030

29

Latin America

145

Advanced Europe
164

55

10

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Middle East

10

Net export

111
335
252
8

Other Asia

76

300

370
253

Japan, Korea &Chinese Taipei

204

600

188

ASEAN

102

Africa

143

India

15

Oth. Europe/Eurasia

223

China

0

Oceania

42
363
416

Mtce
300 600

600

Net import

Net export

300

300

0

Mtce
600

Net import

62
Reference Scenario

Coal production (steam and coking coal)
Steam coal
7,000
Mt

6,173

6,373 6,390

Coking coal
1,200
6,061

6,000

904

Oceania
5,000

Mt

1,050

1,000
869

852

Africa800

Oth. Europe/Eurasia

4,000

600

Advanced Europe

3,000

Middle East
2,000

Asia
200

Latin America

1,000,((- 2XWORRN,((-

400

North America

0
2019

2030

2040

2050

0
2019

2030

2040

2050

63

Reference Scenario

Major trade flows of steam and coking coal (2020)
Unit: Mt

5

19

59

5

4

Middle East

4

16

Mongolia

29
9
8 8

29
2
9

China

India

3
13
South Africa

422
Latin America

41

7Australia

23

5

Colombia

18274
109 7428

5

3

Indonesia

ASEAN, etc.

2

13
6

69
6

19

North America

31
3

146

53
42
2 53

4

7
16

55

Japa
Japan,
Ja
apan,
ap
a
pan, Korea
panp
K ea and
Chinese Taipei

98

3

Africa,((- 2XWORRN,((-

5

Other EuropeEurouro/ Eurasia

Advance
Advanced
Ad
an
an
nce
ced
ed
d
Europe28
2

5
Russia4
Notes: Total value of steam and coking coal. 2 Mt or more are shown. South Africa includes Mozambique.
Source: Estimated from IEA “Coal Information 2021”, “TEX Report”, etc.

64

Reference Scenario

Major trade flows of steam and coking coal (2050)
Unit: Mt

6

16
20
9

52
58
8

AdvancAdvanced
Ad
van
anced
an
ced
ed
d
Europe 2

4
2
8

6

Other
EuropeEurourooԦयඉOECD//஦ԟΠζΠ
Eurasia

4

72
56

Mongolia
Ϡϱβϩ

1
145
77
7 ASEAN, etc.

10

106

24

5
Notes: Total value of steam and coking coal.
2 Mt or more are shown.
South Africa includes Mozambique.

9

16
18

19

3

9

4

Colombia

40
4

3

Indonesia

123 4688

17South Africa

202Chinese Taipei

124

20

North๼ธ
America

36

51

22
2
28
24
2
4
22
2
Japan,
Ja
Japa
apan,
ap
a
pan,
p
an Korea
K ea and45
5 China
21
஦ࠅ

17
1
7
Middle஦౨౨East111΢ϱχ
India

AfricaΠϓϨΩ,((- 2XWORRN,((-

15
1
21

RussiaϫεΠ

Australia

170

9

26
30
஦ೈธ
Latin America

6

4

65

Reference Scenario

Final consumption of electricity
By region
45,000TWh40,00035,00030,000,((- 2XWORRN,((-

25,000

By sector

Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/Eurasia
Advanced Europe
Middle East
Asia
Latin America
North America

45,000

Buildings, etc.

TWh40,000Transport

38,532

Industry

33,53935,00028,29530,00022,84425,00020,00020,00015,00015,00010,00010,000

5,000

5,000

17,883
12,6949,700

001990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

66
Reference Scenario

Power generation mix
Electricity generated
50,000
TWh

100%

Other renewables

44,376

Hydro
Nuclear40,000Shares39,130Natural gas
Oil

80%

33,308Coal
30,00026,93660%

21,52620,00015,42840%,((- 2XWORRN,((-

11,845
10,00020%

00%1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

67

Reference Scenario

Energy-related CO2 emissions
Emissions

Changes (2019-2050)

20
GtCO2

15

10

GtCO2
North America
Latin America
Asia
Middle East
Advanced Europe
Oth. Europe/Eurasia
AfricaOceania

Asia

2.8

0.5%

Africa1.2

2.2%

Middle East

0.6

0.9%

Latin America

0.5

0.9%

Oth. Europe/Eurasia -0.1

-0.1%

Oceania -0.1

-0.7%

5

,((- 2XWORRN,((-CAGR

Advanced Europe

-0.8

-0.9%

North America

-1.2

-0.8%

0
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

68
Reference Scenario

Energy-related investments (2021 – 2050)
By sector40

By region

Total $73.6 trillion
Asia
30.9

$2010 trillion

30

20

Nuclear, 1.7

North America

28.2

Thermal, 3.6

Biofuels, 0.6
Coal, 2.0

Renewables
13.0

Natural gas
11.6

14.5
Industry, 2.0,((- 2XWORRN,((-

10

0Transmission
anddistribution
12.6
Electricity
supplyOil
14.0

Fuel supply

26.6

Buildings, etc.
5.8
Transport
6.7
Efficiency

11.6

Middle East

8.6

Advanced Europe

6.5

Latin America

6.4

Oth.
Europe/Eurasia

6.4

Africa6.0

Oceania

1.4
010Electricity
supplyFuel supply
Efficiency
2030$2010 trillion

69

Advanced Technologies Scenario

Primary energy consumption
By region

By energy source
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
NuclearHyydroHydro
Other renewables

6,000

20,000Mtoe

17,675Mtoe

15,86914,48615,00015,125

14,738 4,000

10,000 8,738
Advanced Economies
5,000

Emerging Market and Developing Economies

2,000

Intl. bunkers
Reference,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Advanced Technologies
001990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Note: Solid lines stand for Advanced Technologies Scenario anddotted lines stand for Reference Scenario.

70
Advanced Technologies Scenario

Final energy consumption
By sector

By energy

15,000

6,000

Mtoe

Mtoe
12,12010,880
9,983

10,000

10,321Coal
OilNatural gas
Electricity
Others

4,000
9,996

6,236
5,000

Industry

2,000Transport
Buildings, etc.
,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Reference
Advanced Technologies
001990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Note: Solid lines stand for Advanced Technologies Scenario anddotted lines stand for Reference Scenario.

71Advanced Technologies Scenario

Share of passenger vehicle
New sales
100%

Stock

6%
8%

12%

23%

13%

80%

22%

38%
24%

94%

21%

40%

5%
6%

Battery electricvehicle14%

22%

Plug-in hybrid
vehicle

25%

12%

20%

2050

Reference

32%

Natural gas
vehicle9%

Conventional
engine vehicle

37%

0%
2030

18%

79%

36%

66%
36%

2019

30%

96%

Hybrid vehicle
62%,((- 2XWORRN,((-

17%

38%

17%

60%

3%
4%

Fuel cell vehicle

2030

2050

43%
15%
2019

Advanced
Technologies

2030

2050

Reference

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

72
Advanced Technologies Scenario

Fuel efficiency of passenger vehicle
New sale-basis

Stock-basis

40

37.0

km/L

31.6

30.0

30
22.3

30
24.0

26.8
22.6

20

40
km/L

20

19.5

18.5
10

15.9

14.4

Advanced
Technologies

10

Advanced
Technologies

13.2

Reference,((- 2XWORRN,((-

23.7

17.2

0

Reference
0

2019

2030

2040

2050

2019

2030

2040

2050

Note: Litres of gasoline equivalent73

Advanced Technologies Scenario

Energy efficiency in buildings sector
Residential

Commercial

250

200
Y2019=100
180

Y2019=100
201
200

160
166

150

129

100

80
60

Advanced
Technologies

Advanced
Technologies

40

Reference

Reference

20

0

132

114

100

100
50

153
117

120

157

117

100

144

140

138

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

178

0
2019

2030

2040

2050

2019

2030

2040

2050

74
Advanced Technologies Scenario

Energy intensity improvement in industry sector
Improvement rate vs. 2019
46%

40%
38%
30%

30%
24%

20%

32%
26%
20%

17%

Iron & steel

Non-metallic
minerals

ChemicalPaper & pulp

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

Reference

Advanced
Technologies,((- 2XWORRN,((-

0%

10%

Reference

10%

35%

Advanced
Technologies

50%

Other industries

75Advanced Technologies Scenario

Biomass
Biofuels for transport
300
Mtoe
250
200
150
100

Intl. bunkers
Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/Eurasia
Advanced Europe
Middle East
Asia
Latin America
North America 145

Solid biomass
268

Others2,000
Mtoe

Power generation
Industry
Buildings, etc.

1,500

1,352
1,221

1,273

1,259
1,085

151
1,000

116
95

500
50
0

0
,((- 2XWORRN,((-

2019

2030

2050

Reference

2030

2019

2050

2030

2050

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

76
Advanced Technologies Scenario

Power generation mix
Electricity generated
60,000TWh
50,00040,00030,000Power generation capacity

Other renewables
re
e
Hydro
NuclearNatural ggas
ga w
with CCS
44,37
44,37643,364Natural gas
Natu
Oil
Coal with
w CCS
33,44433,308
Coal

21,000GW
18,00015,00012,00026,93620,00017,409

10,113

9,246
9,000

6,814

6,000

10,0003,0000,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Other renewables
re
e
Hydro
NuclearNatural gas
ga w
with CCS
Natural gas
Natu
Oil
Coal with
w CCS 13,813
Coal

0
2019

2030

2050

Reference

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

2019

2030

2050

Reference

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

77Advanced Technologies Scenario

Wind and solar PV power generation capacity
Wind
5,000
GW
4,000

3,000

2,000

Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/Eurasia
Advanced Europe
Middle East
Asia
Latin America
North America
1,981

Solar PV
5,000
GW
3,890

4,000

3,000

1,791

Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/Eurasia
Advanced Europe
Middle East
3,015
Asia
Latin America
North America
1,828

2,000
1,231

1,164
1,000

1,000

622

0

0
2019

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

581

2030

2050

Reference

2030

2019

2050

2030

2050

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

78
Advanced Technologies Scenario

Nuclear power generation capacity and thermal power generation efficiency
Nuclear
1,000
GW
800

600
428

Oceania
AfricaOth. Europe/Eurasia
Eur
Advanced Eur
EuropeMiddle East
Asia
Latin America
A
North America
518
5
476
435

Thermal power generation efficiency(generation end)

50 %

46.2

731
45

42.9
40.4

42.9

40

400

37.6
200

40.0

Advanced
Technologies

35

Reference0,((- 2XWORRN,((-

45.5

2019

2030

2050

Reference

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

30
2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

79

Advanced Technologies Scenario

Energy-related CO2 emissions
By region

By technology
45

45
GtCO2

37.5

35.5

GtCO2
33.6

33.6
30

North America
Latin A
AmericaAsia
21.7
Middle East
Advanced Europe
Oth. Eur
Europe/Eurasia
AfricaOceania
Intl. bunkers
Reference
Advanced Technologies

20.5

15

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

30

31.3

0

37.5

35.5

31.3
20.5
Efficiency

21.7

Biofuels

15

Wind, solar,
sola etc.
Nuclear
Fuel sw
switching
CCS
Reference
Advanced Technologies

01990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

80
Advanced Technologies Scenario

Energy-related investments (2021 – 2050)
Changes from Reference Scenario

By sector

100

38.4

80

30
22.0
Biofuels, 0.9
Coal, 1.1
Natural gas
8.8Electricity
supply40
Efficiency
20

Fuel supply
Electricity supply

Oil, 11.2

Transport, 11.3

Fuel supply

Efficiency

0
Advanced
Technologies

0Transmission
anddistribution
12.9

Buildings, etc.
10.5

85.3

60

(Fuel supply),((- 2XWORRN,((-

10

24.9
Industry, 3.2

73.6

7.5

(Efficiency)

20

Renewables
19.2

10.4 -6.2(Electricity
supply)$2010 trillion

Nuclear, 2.5
Thermal, 3.9$2010 trillion

40

Total $85.3 trillion

Reference

50

81

Asia

Reference Scenario

Primary energy consumption
By region
10,000Mtoe
8,000

By energy source
10,000

Others

Mtoe

Korea
Japan

8,000

ASEAN

Hydro
Nuclear

China

6,000

7,639

Natural gas
Oil

India
6,000

Other renewables
8,028

7,063
6,064

Coal
4,781

4,000

4,000

2,860
2,083
2,000

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

2,000

0

0

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

82
Asia

Reference Scenario

Final energy consumption
By sector
6,000
Mtoe
5,000

By energy source
6,000

OthersBuildings, etc.

Mtoe

Electricity

Transport

5,000

Non-energy use

Industry

4,000

5,226

Natural gas

4,895

Oil

4,511

Coal

3,919

4,000

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

3,156
3,000

3,000

2,000

2,000

1,000

1,000

1,973
1,529

0

0
1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

83

Asia

Reference Scenario

Oil consumption
By region
50
Mb/d

By sector

Others50

Transformation

Korea

Mb/d

Non-energy use

Japan
40

42

Buildings, etc.

ASEAN

40

India

39

Transport
35

Industry

China

30
30

30

24
19

20

20

13
10

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

10

0

0

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

84
Asia

Reference Scenario

Natural gas consumption
By region

By sector

2,000

Others2,000

Transformation

Bcm

Korea

Bcm

Non-energy use

1,500

Japan

Buildings, etc.

ASEAN

Transport

India

1,500

1,583

Industry

1,372

China
1,124
1,000

1,000

500

500

807
546

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

280
139
0

0
1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

85

Asia

Reference Scenario

Coal consumption
By region
6,000
Mtce
5,000

4,000

Others
Korea
Japan
ASEAN
India
China

By sector
6,000Transformation

Mtce

Non-energy use

5,000

Buildings, etc.
Transport
4,209

Industry
4,000

3,000

3,000

2,000

2,000

4,451 4,436

4,233

3,442

1,478
1,126

1,000

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

1,000

0

0

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

86
Asia

Reference Scenario

Final consumption of electricity
By region

By sector

25,000

Others

25,000

Buildings, etc.

TWh

Korea

TWh

Transport

Japan
20,000

ASEAN
India

Industry

19,56320,00017,095

China

14,37515,00015,00010,82810,00010,000

6,678
5,000

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

5,000

3,251
1,822

0

0
1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

1990 2000 2010 2019 2030 2040 2050

87

Asia

Reference Scenario

Energy-related CO2 emissions
Emissions
12
GtCO2

Changes (2019-2050)
GtCO2

China

CAGR

India
India

ASEAN

3.3

2.9%

Japan

9

Korea

ASEAN

1.3

1.9%

OthersOthers

6

0.5

1.7%

Korea -0.06

-0.3%

3

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Japan

-0.4

-1.4%

China

0

-0.7%

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

88
Asia

Reference Scenario

Energy-related investments (2021 – 2050)
By sector
20

By region

Total $26.6 trillion
China$2010 trillion

14.3
Nuclear, 0.5
Thermal, 1.6
10

Renewable
s
5.2
5.5

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Transmission
anddistribution
6.9
0Electricity
supplyBiofuels, 0.1
Coal, 1.4
Natural gas
2.3

6.8
Industry, 1.3
Buildings, etc.
2.9

Oil, 1.7

Transport, 2.6

Fuel supply

Efficiency

11.6

ASEAN

5.5

India

5.5

Others

1.7

Japan

1.7

Korea

Electricity
supplyFuel supply

0.6
0Efficiency
5

10

15

$2010 trillion

89

Asia

Advanced Technologies Scenario

Primary energy consumption
By region

By energy source

10,000

4,000

Mtoe

Mtoe

Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Other renewables

8,028
8,000

7,063
6,064

6,000

6,740
China

3,000
6,562
2,000

India
4,000

ASEAN
Other Asia

2,083,((- 2XWORRN,((-

2,000

1,000

Reference
Advanced
Technologies

01990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

01990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Note: Solid lines stand for Advanced Technologies Scenario anddotted lines stand for Reference Scenario.

90
Asia

Advanced Technologies Scenario

Final energy consumption
By sector

By energy source

6,000

2,500

Mtoe

Mtoe

5,226
4,511
3,919

4,000

4,329

2,000

Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Electricity
Others

4,320
1,500

1,000
2,000

1,529

Industry
Transport
Buildings, etc.

500,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Reference0

Advanced Technologies
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

01990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Note: Solid lines stand for Advanced Technologies Scenario anddotted lines stand for Reference Scenario.

91

Asia

Advanced Technologies Scenario

Power generation mix
Electricity generated
25,000TWh
20,00015,000Power generation capacity

Other renewables
Hydro
22,124
21,153
NuclearNatural gas
Oil
16,577
16,570Coal

10,000
GW
8,000

6,000

12,432

4,000

5,000

2,000

8,603

5,216

4,725

10,0003,275

00,((- 2XWORRN,((-

Other renewables
Hydro
NuclearNatural gas
7,081
Oil
Coal

2019

2030

2050

Reference

2030

2019

2050

2030

2050

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

92
Asia

Advanced Technologies Scenario

Supply and demand balance of fossil fuels
Oil

Natural gas

Coal

4,000
Mtoe
3,000
2,000

1,123

1,389

1,797

1,634

1,2991,283
7
260
0 427

1,000

707
7

379
9 402

300

751

330 268

0
1,000
2,000
3,000

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

4,000

Production
DemandNet imports
2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

Reference Advanced
Tech.

Reference Advanced
Tech.

Reference Advanced
Tech.

93

Asia

Advanced Technologies Scenario

Energy-related CO2 emissions
By region
20

18.9

18.0

GtCO2
18
16.1

16

12

10.6

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

10.6

Wind, solar, etc.
Nuclear4

Advanced
Technologies

0

Biofuels

6 4.7

Reference2

Efficiency

8

Other Asia

4

15.8

10

ASEAN

6 4.7

16.1

12

India

8

18.9

18.0

GtCO2
18

14

China

10

20

16
15.8

14

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

By technology

Fuel switching

2

CCS

0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

94
Asia

Advanced Technologies Scenario

Energy-related investments (2021 – 2050)
By sector
Total $33.0 trillion

40

17.2

4.7

Biofuels, 0.2
Coal, 0.8
Natural gas
1.8
Oil, 1.5

Transport, 4.5

Fuel supply

Efficiency

Efficiency
10

Fuel supply
Electricity supply

0

Advanced
Technologies

4.2

Buildings, etc.
5.1

20

(Fuel supply)

Electricity
supplyIndustry, 1.9(Efficiency),((- 2XWORRN,((-

0

11.5

Renewables
8.2

Transmission
anddistribution
6.8

33.0

26.6

(Electricity
supply)

10

-1.3

3.0
30

$2010 trillion$2010 trillion

Nuclear, 0.8
Thermal, 1.3

Reference

20

Changes from Reference Scenario95

ChinaEnergy consumption
Primary energy consumption
5,000 Other renewables
Mtoe Hydro
NuclearNatural gas
4,000 Oil
3,655
Coal
3,373
3,389

Final energy consumption
3,000
Mtoe
2,500

3,467

Non-energy use
Buildings, etc.
Transport
Industry 2,233
2,099
2,093

2,166

2,000

1,775

2,714

3,000

1,500
2,000
1,000
1,000

500
0

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

0
2019

2030

2050

Reference

2030

2050

2019

2030

2050

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

96
China

Supply and demand balance of fossil fuels
Oil
3,000
Mtoe

Production

2,000

Net imports

1,000

457 548 542 517 380

Natural gas

Coal

Demand101 165 152 151

67

114

378

734
127

53

0
1,000
2,000

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

3,000
2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

Reference Advanced
Tech.

Reference Advanced
Tech.

Reference Advanced
Tech.

97

ChinaPower generation mix
Electricity generated
15,000
TWh

5,000
GW

Other renewables
Hydro
NuclearNatural gas
11,026
Oil
9,604
Coal

10,000Power generation capacity

10,510

4,000

9,595

Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
3,835
Natural gas
Oil
Coal

3,139
2,837

3,000

7,472

4,523

1,907

2,000
5,000
1,000

0

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

0
2019

2030

2050

2030

Reference

2050

2019

2030

2050

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

98
China

Energy-related CO2 emissions and investments
CO2 emissions

Investments(2021 – 2050)

12

20

GtCO2

10.2
9.9

0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Efficiency

5

Fuel supply
Electricity supply

0
Advanced
Technologies,((- 2XWORRN,((-

2

10(Fuel supply)

2.2

14.3

11.6

(Efficiency)

4

Efficiency
Biofuels
4.3
Wind, solar, etc.
Nuclear
Fuel switching
CCS
Reference
Advanced Technologies

-0.6

1.6

(Electricity
supply)

6

1.7

15

Reference

9.0

8

8.1

$2010 trillion

1099IndiaEnergy consumption
Primary energy consumption
3,000
Mtoe

2,000

Final energy consumption

Other renewables
Hydro
NuclearNatural gas
Oil
2,158
Coal

2,000
Mtoe

1,500

Non-energy use
Buildings, etc.
Transport
Industry
1,442
1,132

1,648
1,367

852

630

938

1,000

899

1,000

1,283

500

0

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

0
2019

2030

2050

Reference

2030

2019

2050

2030

2050

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

100
India

Supply and demand balance of fossil fuels
Oil

Natural gas

Coal

1,000
Mtoe
618
500

319
198

627
428
301
30

59

166

254
58

104

130

156 1910500

Production
DemandNet imports,((- 2XWORRN,((-

1,000
2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

Reference Advanced
Tech.

Reference Advanced
Tech.

Reference Advanced
Tech.

101

IndiaPower generation mix
Electricity generated
6,000
TWh

4,000

2,000
GW

Other renewables
Hydro
4,937
NuclearNatural gas
Oil
Coal
2,756

2,000

Power generation capacity

4,657
1,500

2,744

Other renewables
Hydro
NuclearNatural gas
Oil
Coal
1,219

1,673

1,000
746

630

1,624
500

359

0

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

0
2019

2030

2050

2030

Reference

2019

2050

2030

2050

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

102
India

Energy-related CO2 emissions and investments
CO2 emissions

6

Efficiency
BiofuelsWind, solar, etc.
Nuclear
Fuel switching
CCS
Reference
Advanced Technologies

4(2021 – 2050)

8
0.8

3.4

2.3

2.9

6

5.6

$2010 trillion

8
GtCO2

Investments

3.1

5.5

-0.3

0.6

6.5

4

Efficiency

2

Fuel supply
Electricity supply

2

Advanced
Technologies(Fuel supply)(Efficiency)

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

(Electricity
supply),((- 2XWORRN,((-

0

Reference

0
0.5

103

ASEAN

Energy consumption
Primary energy consumption
2,000
Mtoe

1,500

Final energy consumption

Other renewables
Hydro
NuclearNatural gas
Oil
1,336
Coal

1,000
Mtoe
900
800
1,197

923

1,000

906

700

867
728

604

577

600
467

500

686

Non-energy use
Buildings, etc.
Transport
Industry

400
300

500

200
100

0
,((- 2XWORRN,((-

0
2019

2030

2050

Reference

2030

2019

2050

2030

2050

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

104
ASEAN

Supply and demand balance of fossil fuels
Oil

Natural gas

Coal

500
Mtoe
310
250

184
123

163

213
127
17

7

55

42

0

-114

-37
250

-179
-148

-102

Production
Demand,((- 2XWORRN,((-

500

Net imports
2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

2019 2030 2050 2030 2050

Reference Advanced
Tech.

Reference Advanced
Tech.

Reference Advanced
Tech.

105

ASEANPower generation mix
Electricity generated
4,000
TWh

3,000

Power generation capacity
2,000
GW

Other renewables
Hydro
NuclearNatural gas
2,929
Oil
Coal

2,835

1,500

Other renewables
Hydro
NuclearNatural gas
Oil
Coal

1,266

1,024
2,000

1,000

1,657

1,646

402

500

1,000

0

0

,((- 2XWORRN,((-

628

582

1,089

2019

2030

2050

2030

Reference

2019

2050

2030

2050

Reference

Advanced
Technologies

2030

2050

Advanced
Technologies

106
ASEAN

Energy-related CO2 emissions and investments
CO2 emissions

1.5

8
5.5

Fuel supply
Electricity supply

101990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0
Reference,((- 2XWORRN,((-

0.4

Advanced
Technologies

1.5

Efficiency

2(Fuel supply)

1.7

4(Efficiency)

2

7.2

6

2.8

2.0

-0.3

0.5

(Electricity
supply)3

Efficiency
BiofuelsWind, solaWind
solar, etc.
Nuclear
Fuel sw
switching
CCS
RefereReference
Advanced Technologies(2021 – 2050)$2010 trillion

4
GtCO2

Investments

107

The tables for IEEJ Outlook 2022 are currently available athttps://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/whatsnew/439.html.
The full text will be available early 2022 at the same URL.

IEEJ Outlook 2022
October 2021
The Institute of Energy Economics, JapanIEEJ © 2021

Contact: report@tky.ieej.or.jp