IEEJ：July 2021© IEEJ2021

Gas 2021 reportPeter FRASER, Head of Division, Gas, Coal and Power Markets
14th IEEJ Global Energy Webinar, July 13, 2021

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Gas growth in 2021 offsets 2020 losses globally
Change in gas demand by region, 2019-2021

Global rebound is supported by economic recovery and a colder than average first quarter.
Some mature markets are not fully recovering their 2020 losses.
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Global gas demand growth slows down after 2021
Breakdown of forecast growth in global natural gas demand, 2020-2024
By yearBy sector

By region

Recovery in 2021, the industrial sector and Asia region lead gas demand growth in 2020-24.
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Growth slows down. Switching to gas is a strong contributor to growth
Evolution of global gas demand by driver, 2020-2024

After the growth in 2021 driven by economic recovery, growth in 2022-2024
is driven equally by economic activity and fuel substitution.
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Stronger policies are needed to match a net-zero path
Evolution of global gas demand compared to the WEO Sustainable Development Scenario and Net Zero by 2050 scenario

Global gas demand by 2024 would already be 2% above the 2025 level in the SDS.
More substitution and efficiency are needed to curb demand to a net-zero trajectory.
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Existing and under-development supply meets most needs to 2024
Evolution of gas production per type of asset and per region, 2021-2024

Thanks to the investments decided before 2020, projects already under-development meet most needs to 2024.
Most of additional upstream capacity is associated to US LNG projects under construction.
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Green gases are taking off
Estimated low-carbon gas supply and forecast (2020-2024)
BiomethaneHydrogen grid injection capacity

Synthetic methane grid injection capacity

Low-carbon gases will expand rapidly through the medium-term, albeit from a low basis.
The right set of policies could provide additional upside potential for their development.
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New sources of flexibility reinforce LNG supply security
Global LNG trade and liquefaction utilisation rate, 2015-2024
FORECASTLNG trade growth only marginally exceeds capacity expansions, leading to a slow increase in utilisation rates.
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Key takeaways• Gas demand grows 3.6% in 2021, supported by economic recovery and a colder-than-average firstquarter. Some mature markets are not fully recovering their 2020 losses.
• Post-2021 growth is slower. Industrial buyers and Asian markets lead growth. Growth in 2022-2024
is driven equally by economic activity and fuel substitution.
• In spite of limited medium-term gas demand growth, stronger policies are required to underpin
further fuel substitution and efficiency gains and get on track for a net-zero trajectory.
• Thanks to the investments decided before 2020, projects already under development meet mostsupply needs to 2024.
• The focus on cleaner gas supply – low carbon gases, carbon management solutions and methane
emission reduction - is growing.
• LNG trade growth resumes in parallel with capacity expansion. Global liquefaction utilisation rate
will return progressively to its pre-2020 level by 2024.

IEA 2021. All rights reserved.

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IEA 2021. All rights reserved.

Contact:report@tky.ieej.or.jp

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