DC開発フォーラム「複眼でみる温暖化」第3回セミナー
途上国は適応できるのか小林隼人
7月30日

複眼でみる温暖化 シリーズ
第1回 (5月16日)● Kyoto mechanism (CDM)
第2回 (6月16日)● Post Kyoto negotiations● G8 summit: 50-50
第3回 (7月30日)● Impacts and Adaptation
第4回 (8月)● Clean energy

The evolution of IPCC reports
1990, 1995, 2001 and 2007
“it is “very likely” that emissions of heat-trappinggases from human activities have caused “most ofthe observed increase in globally averaged
temperatures since the mid-20th century” (4th)IPCC reports do not cover...
Methane emissions from Tundra
Ice sheets Greenland and Antarctica“Business-as-usual global warming would almost
surely send the planet beyond a tipping point,
guaranteeing a disastrous degree of sea level rise.”
James Hansen,
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
H2S and mass extinction (or rotten eggs?)

5 meters sea level rises will...

Impacts of sea level risein developing countries
A 1m rise would create 56 million refugees in
84 developing countries. The number increases to89 million and 245 million in the case of a 2msea level rise and 5m sea level rise respectively.
East Asia appears to be hit most severely- 1m Sea Level Rise affect 2% population and
2% of GDP in East Asia; 5m sea level rise willaffect 8.6% of population and 10.2% of GDP

Adaptation
Adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli
or their effects, which moderates harm orexploits beneficial opportunities. Various typesof adaptation can be distinguished, including
anticipatory, autonomous and planned
adaptation. (IPCC)
Technology and policy interventions

Vulnerability
Vulnerability isfunction of impacts,
sensitivity andcapacity to adapt

Huge Challenges todeveloping capacitywith limited capacity

Impacts on water resources
雨季の洪水リスクの増加と乾季の水不足
異常気象、台風, ハリケーンの増加
氷河湖決壊リスク

氷河湖の水抜き

Ecosystem
動物相・植物相の変化- 気温, 水温上昇
- 積雪の減少- 移入種, 新たな病原菌のリスク
Coral reef
- 30%が既に危機的状況,- 海水温上昇により、さらにリスクは増加
渡り鳥ー特に長距離を移動する種へのリスク

Agriculture and Food Security
温暖化による植生の変化, 淡水資源の減少－途上国（特にアフリカ）の農業生産性
単位あたりの 栄養分減少
人口増加と消費増
エネルギー、肥料価格の高騰－Food Crisis－Bread martyrs

With wine, we can taste climate changeChampagne goes to England, Rieslings go to Sweden
Major losers include France, Spain and Napa valley

Each one degree increase intemperature in France isequivalent to moving 200 km

And Apples too...

Human Health and Security
病原菌の生息範囲の拡大
マラリア, デング, 日本脳炎
環境難民（島嶼国、低地国）
ツバル, キリバスからNZへの移住
地域紛争リスクの増大
46 countries (2.7 billion people) at high risk ofarmed conflict, and an additional 56 states(1.2 billion people) at risk of political instability(International Alert).

The cost of adaptation
US$86 billion per year (UNDP)
Africa: 5-10% of GDP per year
UN Adaptation Fund- currently 60 million --- expected to increase
to 300 million by 2012
- funded by 2% levy on CDM
More and more funds by WB, ADB, Japan, but
disbursement tend to be slow:
Of more than $1 billion pledged at the 2002
Johannesburg Earth summit for improving
preparedness of vulnerable countries,
less than $180 million have been deliveredSustainable biofuels?
Algae or halophytes

Do not competewith food, returns
70% of the fresh
water now used forconventional
agriculture back fordirect human use

Massive potentialfor deserted
coastlines in Africa

Meat without animals?
$1 million prize to the first person
to come up with a method toproduce commercially viable
quantities of in vitro meat atcompetitive prices by 2012save water, save land andsave animals – but do people eat it?

Oil 2.0?
LS9 Inc.
Oil 2.0: bugs and yeasts that excrete biofuels – skip
the expensive distillation process
Craig Venter“make a bacterium that will eat CO2, drink water,ingest sunlight and produce fuel in 1-2 years”

Cost, risks and opportunities
Expensive, but costs of non-action will be even more
expensiveMechanism to transfer money and technologies todeveloping countries- Clean Technology Funds- CDM
Risk is high, but opportunities are also significant

Better to be proactive - Thank you